Today’s News 5th April 2020

  • Did Bill Gates Just Reveal The Real Reason Behind The Lock-Downs?
    Did Bill Gates Just Reveal The Real Reason Behind The Lock-Downs?

    Authored by Rosemary Frei via Off-Guardian.org,

    On March 24 Bill Gates gave a highly revelatory 50-minute interview to Chris Anderson. Anderson is the Curator of TED, the non-profit that runs the TED Talks.

    The Gates interview is the second in a new series of daily ‘Ted Connects’ interviews focused on COVID-19. The series’s website says that:

    TED Connects: Community and Hope is a free, live, daily conversation series featuring experts whose ideas can help us reflect and work through this uncertain time with a sense of responsibility, compassion and wisdom.”

    Anderson asked Gates at 3:49 in the video of the interview – which well over three million views now – about a ‘Perspective’ article by Gates that was published February 28 in the New England Journal of Medicine.

    “You wrote that this could be the once-in-a-century pandemic that people have been fearing. Is that how you think of it, still?” queried Anderson.

    “Well, it’s awful to say this but, we could have a respiratory virus whose case fatality rate was even higher. If this was something like smallpox, that kills 30 percent of people. So this is horrific,” responded Gates.

    “But, in fact, most people even who get the COVID disease are able to survive. So in that, it’s quite infectious – way more infectious than MERS [Middle East Respiratory Syndrome] or SARS [Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome] were. [But] it’s not as fatal as they were. And yet the disruption we’re seeing in order to knock it down is really completely unprecedented.”

    Gates reiterates the dire consequences for the global economy later in the interview.

    “We need a clear message about that,” Gates said starting at 26:52.

    It is really tragic that the economic effects of this are very dramatic. I mean, nothing like this has ever happened to the economy in our lifetimes. But … bringing the economy back and doing [sic] money, that’s more of a reversible thing than bringing people back to life. So we’re going to take the pain in the economic dimension, huge pain, in order to minimize the pain in disease and death dimension.”

    However, this goes directly against the imperative to balance the benefits and costs of the screening, testing and treatment measures for each ailment – as successfully promulgated for years by, for example, the Choosing Wisely campaign – to provide the maximum benefit to individual patients and society as a whole

    As noted in an April 1 article in OffGuardian, there may be dramatically more deaths from the economic breakdown than from COVID-19 itself.

    “By all accounts, the impact of the response will be great, far-reaching, and long-lasting,”

    Kevin Ryan wrote in the article. Ryan estimated that well over two million people will likely die from the sequelae of the lock-downs and other drastic measures to enforce ‘social distancing.’

    Millions could potentially die from suicide, drug abuse, lack of medical coverage or treatment, poverty and lack of food access, on top of other predictable social, medical and public-health problems stemming from the response to COVID-19.

    Gates and Anderson did not touch on any of those sequelae. Instead, they focused on rapidly ramping up testing and medical interventions for COVID-19.

    Gates said at 30:29 in the interview that he and a large team are moving fast to test anti-virals, vaccines and other therapeutics and to bring them to market as quickly as possible.

    The Gates Foundation and Wellcome Trust with support from Mastercard and now others, created this therapeutic accelerator to really triage out [candidate therapeutics]…

    You have hundreds of people showing up and saying, ‘Try this, try that.’ So we look at lab assays, animal models, and so we understand which things should be prioritized for these very quick human trials that need to be done all over the world.”

    The accelerator was launched March 10 with approximately $125 million in seed funding. Three days later Gates left Microsoft.

    Not long before that, on January 23, Gates’s organization the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) announced it will fund three programs to develop COVID-19 vaccines. These are the advancing of DNA-vaccine candidates against MERS and Lassa fever, the development of a “‘molecular clamp’ platform” that “enables targeted and rapid vaccine production against multiple viral pathogens,” and the manufacture and Phase 1 clinical study of an mRNA vaccine against COVID.

    “The programmes will leverage rapid response platforms already supported by CEPI as well as a new partnership. The aim is to advance nCoV-2019 vaccine candidates into clinical testing as quickly as possible,” according to a news release.

    Then at 32:50 in the video, Anderson asked whether the blood serum from people who have recovered from a COVID infection can be used to treat others.

    “I heard you mention that one possibility might be treatments from the serum, the blood serum of people who had had the disease and then recovered. So I guess they’re carrying antibodies,” said Anderson.

    “Talk a bit about that and how that could work and what it would take to accelerate that.”

    [Note that Anderson did not ask Gates about, instead, just letting most of the population – aside from people most vulnerable to serious illness from the infection, who should be quarantined — be exposed to COVID-19 and as a result very likely recover and develop life-long immunity. As at least one expert has observed, “as much as ninety-nine percent of active cases [of COVID-19] in the general population are ‘mild’ and do not require specific medical treatment” to recover.]

    “This has always been discussed as, ‘How could you pull that off?’” replied Gates. 

    “So people who are recovered, it appears, have very effective antibodies in their blood. So you could go, transfuse them and only take out white cells, the immune cells.”

    However, Gates continued, he and his colleagues have dismissed that possibility because it’s “fairly complicated – compared to a drug we can make in high volume, you know, the cost of taking it out and putting it back in probably doesn’t scale as well.”

    Then a few seconds later, at 33:45, Gates drops another bomb:

    We don’t want to have a lot of recovered people

    To be clear, we’re trying – through the shut-down in the United States – to not get to one percent of the population infected. We’re well below that today, but with exponentiation, you could get past that three million [people or approximately one percent of the U.S. population being infected with COVID-19 and the vast majority recovering]. I believe we will be able to avoid that with having this economic pain.”

    It appears that rather than let the population be exposed to the virus and most develop antibodies that give them natural, long-lasting immunity to COVID-19, Gates and his colleagues far prefer to create a vast, hugely expensive, new system of manufacturing and selling billions of test kits, and in parallel very quickly developing and selling billions of antivirals and vaccines.

    And then, when the virus comes back again a few months later and most of the population is unexposed and therefore vulnerable, again selling billions of test kits and medical interventions.

    Right after that, at 34:14, Gates talked about how he sees things rolling out from there.

    Eventually what we’ll have to have is certificates of who’s a recovered person, who’s a vaccinated person

    …Because you don’t want people moving around the world where you’ll have some countries that won’t have it under control, sadly.

    You don’t want to completely block off the ability for people to go there and come back and move around.

    So eventually there will be this digital immunity proof that will help facilitate the global reopening up.”

    [Some time on the afternoon of March 31 the last sentence of this quote was edited out of the official TED video of the interview. Fortunately, recordings of the complete interview are archived elsewhere.]

    In the October 2019 Event 201 novel-corona virus-pandemic simulation co-sponsored by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the World Economic Forum and a division of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, a poll that was part of the simulation said that 65% of people in the U.S. would be eager to take a vaccine for COVID-19, “even if it’s experimental.”

    This will be tremendously lucrative.

    Vaccines are very big business: this Feb. 23 CNBC article, for example, describes the vaccine market as six times bigger than it was 20 years ago, at more than $35 billion annually today, and providing a $44 return for every $1 invested in the world’s 94 lowest-income countries.

    Notably, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation – which has an endowment of $52 billion – has given more than $2.4 billion to the World Health Organization (WHO) since 2000, according to a 2017 Politico article. (While over the same time frame countries have reduced their contributions to the world body, particularly after the 2008-2009 depression, and now account for less than one-quarter of the WHO’s budget.) The WHO is now coordinating approximately 50 groups around the world that are working on candidate vaccines against COVID-19.

    The Politico article quotes a Geneva-based NGO representative as saying Gates is “treated liked a head of state, not only at the WHO, but also at the G20,” and that Gates is one of the most influential people in global health.

    Meanwhile, officials around the world are doing their part to make sure everyone social distances, self-isolates and/or stay locked down.

    For example, here’s Toronto’s Medical Officer of Health, Dr. Eileen DE Villa, at her and Toronto Mayor John Tory’s March 30 press briefing:

    We find ourselves in the midst of a global pandemic. We should expect some more people will get sick – and for some, sadly, will die.

    This is why it is so important to stay at home to reduce virus spread. And to protect front-line workers, healthcare workers and our essential workers, so they can continue to protect us. People shouldn’t have to die, people shouldn’t have to risk death taking care of us because others won’t practice social distancing or physical distancing.”

    Yet look how close Ontario’s Chief Medical Officer of Health, Dr. David Williams, is sitting to Haley Chazan, Senior Manager, Media Relations, for Christine Elliott, Deputy Premier and Minister of Health of Ontario.

    This was on Friday, March 27, just before the start of that day’s daily press conference by Dr. Williams and Ontario’s Associate Medical Officer of Health Dr. Barbara Yaffe:

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    They were sitting two seats, or just a couple of feet, apart. A short time later Chazan got up and stood even closer to Dr. Williams for a little while:

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    Dr. Williams and Chazan do not live together. Rather, Dr. Williams very likely knows – just as Gates knows – that there is little any reason to worry about being in close contact with other people unless you or they are vulnerable to developing a severe illness from COVID-19. He surely knows, also, that if you contract COVID-19 and you’re otherwise healthy you’ll very likely have few symptoms, if any, and recover quickly. And that this exposure in fact is beneficial because in the process you will develop antibodies to the virus and have natural, long-lasting immunity to it.

    Yet in the March 27 press conference, just like all the others he has participated in during the COVID-19 crisis, Dr. Williams lectured the public about maintaining social distancing. He told people not to go outside on the coming weekend to enjoy the nice weather because, otherwise, they might walk past someone and not be two metres apart.

    Dr. Williams is among the large cadre of powerful officials who’ve crashed the global economy by forcing tens of millions of small- and medium-sized businesses to close in the name of the need for forced, severe, social distancing and lock-downs.

    They’ve shattered society, suspended most civil liberties and prohibited most activities and connections that kept people mentally and physically healthy. At the same time the officials have prioritized COVID-19 care over everything else and, as a result, severely limited billions of people’s access to life-saving healthcare services ranging from acquiring medication and blood transfusions to having organ transplants and cancer surgeries.

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    Rosemary Frei has an MSc in molecular biology from a faculty of medicine and was a freelance medical journalist for 22 years. She is now an independent investigative journalist in Canada. You can find her recent detailed investigative analysis of COVID here and follow her on Twitter.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 04/04/2020 – 23:40

  • Mysterious Colorado Doomsday Shelter For When "Law & Order Breaks Down" Sees Spike In Interest
    Mysterious Colorado Doomsday Shelter For When “Law & Order Breaks Down” Sees Spike In Interest

    As the pandemic unfolds across the US, city dwellers are getting the hell out of dodge and escaping to rural areas. We noted this last week, with many leaving large metro areas in California, fleeing for the mountains and rural communities to limit their probabilities of contracting COVID-19. Now it appears the virus crisis is evolving, as fears of social unrest across large US metro areas are spiking interest in doomsday shelters.  

    The Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies warned last week that a “social bomb” is getting ready to explode across Western cities amid the collapse of economies and high unemployment. This has forced many people to request information about a mysterious doomsday ranch in Colorado, called Fortitude Ranch, stockpiled with food, weapons, ammo, and designated bunkers, reported CBS4 Denver.

    The ranch describes itself as “a survival community equipped to survive any disaster and long-term loss of law and order,” and its actual location is unknown to non-members.

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    “Fortitude Ranch is a survival community equipped to survive any type of disaster and long-term loss of law and order, managed by full time staff. Fortitude Ranch is affordable (about $1,000/person annually) because of large numbers of members and economies of scale. Fortitude Ranch is especially attractive to join because it doubles as a recreation and vacation facility as well as a survival retreat. Members can vacation, hunt, fish and recreate at our forest and mountain locations in good times, and shelter at Fortitude Ranch to survive a collapse,” the company’s website said.

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    Drew Miller, a retired Air Force Colonel, operates several ranches in Colorado and West Virginia, with ten more locations expected in the near term. 

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    “If law and order breaks down, then by all means, we will open and ask our members to come, but thus far our members pretty well understand that they really don’t need to be at Fortitude Ranch now,” Miller said.

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    The beginning innings of social unrest could be unfolding in the US. President Trump signed an executive order last Friday that could call up as many as one million reserves, not to fight the virus solely, but to maintain social order.

    If an economic crisis collapses the US government, the doomsday ranch states that it will operate a “fleet of aircraft” that can travel to and from other sites, as it says, “overland travel may be unsafe for a long time.”

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    And for years, mainstream media laughed at the prepper community – calling anyone who preps a “tin foil hat conspiracy theorist,” but, in a few short months, it’s those who bashed preppers are the crazy ones as they frantically storm big-box retailers without 3M N95 masks for food.

    The virus storm has triggered the next big shift: a mass exodus of cities as lockdowns Martial law has confined people to their studio apartments, with no security of land, no weapons for protection, and limited food. And where are the people that manage to escape the city going? Well, besides a doomsday ranch, there is also a huge demand for “prepper properties…”

    The next chapter of the virus crisis could be here in a matter of weeks, as lockdowns are being extended across the Western world, now till the end of April, people are now starting to get frustrated with governments. 


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 04/04/2020 – 23:15

  • How China's Fake-News-Machine Is Rewriting The History Of COVID-19, Even As The Pandemic Unfolds
    How China’s Fake-News-Machine Is Rewriting The History Of COVID-19, Even As The Pandemic Unfolds

    Authored by Robert Boxwell via The South China Morning Post,

    Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson’s retweet of an article blaming the US for infecting Wuhan with coronavirus went viral, viewed 160 million times within hours. But where did the story come from?

    By now, the early history of Covid-19 is well known, if not clear in its details. The virus was first detected somewhere around Wuhan, in Hubei province, then appears to have entered the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, from where it infected many others. Doctors in Wuhan first noticed the novel coronavirus in December and began exchanging urgent warnings.

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    Local government authorities set out to silence them; some were detained and made to sign documents admitting wrongdoing.Meanwhile, Wuhan officials went about business as usual, which included a disastrous Lunar New Year banquet attended by about 40,000 families. Soon, many more thousands around Wuhan were infected, with hundreds dead or dying, including ophthalmologist Li Wenliang, who had been punished for trying to raise the alarm.Realising it was in the firing line not just for running the nation that had unleashed the deadly virus on the world but also for ignoring, covering up and denying its spread, China’s Communist Party moved into damage-control mode. This included suggesting it was the United Statesthat was responsible for the virus.

    Chinese state media regularly tweet propaganda and what many describe as “fake news”. Global Times has 1.7 million followers on Twitter; China Xinhua News, 12.6 million; People’s Daily, 7.1 million; China Daily, 4.3 million; and China Global Television Network (CGTN), 14 million.

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    Zhao Lijian, spokesman and deputy director general of China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Photo: Kyodo

    Zhao Lijian, spokesman and deputy director general of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ information department, had 287,000 followers when he tweeted a link to a conspi­racy website alleging the US was responsible for the virus. (Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying had 146,700 followers; the ministry’s “spokesperson” account, used by Geng Shuang, had 61,000; and Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of Global Times, had 175,000.)

    With the outbreak of an epidemic, one of the first jobs of scientists and doctors, even while they fight to save lives, is to identify its source. This is critical in the search for medicines to combat a virus and a vaccine to prevent its spread.

    On January 24, an article written jointly by 29 Chinese medical doctors and scientists was published in The Lancet, one of the world’s leading medical journals. The authors shared their findings from a study of patients who were suspected of having been infected with 2019-nCoV and had been admitted to a Wuhan hospital. The report said that by January 2, 41 of them had been “laboratory-confirmed” as infected with the virus – which causes Covid-19 – and two-thirds of those infected “had been exposed to the Huanan market”.

    The findings appeared to support anecdotal evidence that the source of the virus was the market, which had been closed by city officials on January 1. This had been often repeated by Chinese authorities and reported widely in the global media. The Lancet article gave scientific currency to this narrative.

    Then, on February 19, another study – this time published on ChinaXiv.org, an open repository and distribution website used by scientific researchers – suggested the market was likely not ground zero for the virus, but rather that it had been “imported”from outside.

    The study was by a team of scientists from several institutions: Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden of Chinese Academy of Sciences; South China Agricultural University; and the Chinese Institute for Brain Research. It was revised on February 21. Neither version of the study suggested Covid-19 had originated outside China.

    But the fake news machine was about to go to work.

    On February 23, the People’s Daily’s English-language site reprinted a February 22 Global Times article titled, “Japanese TV report sparks speculations in China that Covid-19 may have originated in US”. The original Global Times article, which is no longer available online, began: “A report from a Japanese TV station that suspected some of the 14,000 Americans died of influenza may have unknowningly [sic] contracted the coronavirus has gone viral on Chinese social media, stoking fears and speculations in China that the novel coronavirus may have originated in the US.

    “The report, by TV Asahi Corporation of Japan, suggested that the US government may have failed to grasp how rampant the virus have gone [sic] on the US soil.”

    The article continued: “The story sparked various conspiracy theories on [sic] Chinese cyberspace.

    “The Military World Games were held in Wuhan in October. ‘Perhaps the US delegates brought the coronavirus to Wuhan, and some mutation occurred to the virus, making it more deadly and contagious, and causing a wide­spread outbreak this year,’ a user posted on China’s Twitter-like Weibo.

    “[An] international relations professor at the Shanghai-based Fudan University, noted that global virologists are working to track the origin of the virus, including the intel­ligence agencies. Netizens are encouraged to actively par­take in discussions, but preferrably [sic] in a rational fashion.”

    The original Global Times article appears to have been replaced with one about the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention’s denial of the TV Asahi report.

    On March 4, the People’s Daily reprint of this article was used as the basis for a piece published on conspiracy website GlobalResearch.ca, titled “China’s Coronavirus: A Shocking Update. Did The Virus Originate in the US?” It was the first of two articles on the website that would lead to Zhao’s tweet nine days later suggesting the US Army had brought the virus to Wuhan.

    The March 4 article begins: “The Western media quickly took the stage and laid out the official narrative for the outbreak of the new coronavirus which appeared to have begun in China, claiming it to have originated with animals at a wet market in Wuhan.”

    This omits a few salient facts: that China’s state-controlled media had also “laid out the official narrative”; that reporters had received that narrative from the Chinese government; and that in the early days of the outbreak, the majority of evidence, including the Lancet article by 29 Chinese doctors, pointed to the Wuhan market.

    The Global Research article continues: “In fact the origin was for a long time unknown but it appears likely now, according to Chinese and Japanese reports, that the virus originated elsewhere, from multiple locations, but began to spread widely only after being introduced to the market.

    “More to the point, it appears that the virus did not originate in China and, according to reports in Japanese and other media, may have originated in the US.”

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    Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of the Global Times. Photo: SCMP / Simon Song

    The article then presents a subheading that inflates “may have originated in the US” to “Chinese Researchers Conclude the Virus Originated Outside of China”. Under­neath, it quotes two reports – a February 22 article in Global Times and a February 23 article in CGTN – both about the ChinaXiv study, which did not suggest the virus originated outside China.

    But Global Research wanted readers to draw the conclusion that it did, and so it created some dots to be connected: “Chinese medical authorities – and ‘intelligence agencies’ – then conducted a rapid and wide-ranging search for the origin of the virus, collecting nearly 100 samples of the genome from 12 different countries on 4 continents, identifying all the varieties and mutations. During this research, they determined the virus outbreak had begun much earlier, probably in November, shortly after the Wuhan Military Games.

    “They then came to the same independent conclusions as the Japanese researchers – that the virus did not begin in China but was introduced there from the outside.”

    That was not the “conclusion” of the scientists who posted their research on ChinaXiv.

    Next, citing a February 27 story on Xinhuanet, Global Research invokes a Chinese national hero, Zhong Nanshan, who led the fight to contain severe acute respiratory syn­drome in 2003. “China’s  top respiratory specialist Zhong Nanshan said on January 27 … ‘Though the Covid-19 was first discovered in China, it does not mean that it originated from China’.”

    Global Research translates this for its readers: “But that is Chinese for ‘it originated someplace else, in another country’.”

    Zhong did not say that. Neither did Xinhuanet. And the “Japanese researchers” Global Research refers to are never identified. The only reference to a Japanese source is: “In February of 2020, the Japanese Asahi news report (print and TV) claimed the coronavirus originated in the US, not in China …”

    Global Research offers no link to Asahi, only a link to the February 23 People’s Daily article, which also has no Asahi link but was a reprint of the Global Times story, which appears to have been revised on February 22, and – you guessed it – provides no Asahi link.

    An online search for “Asahi news coronavirus originated in the US” from February 1 to 29 reveals no link to any such Asahi article. Neither does a search of the Asahi news website, which returns 688 articles containing the word “coronavirus” through March 4. But not this one.

    Global Research also cites the Fudan University quote in Global Times: “[The professor] stated that global virologists ‘including the intelligence agencies’ were tracking the origin of the virus. Also of interest, the Chinese government did not shut the door on this. The news report stated: ‘Netizens are encouraged to actively partake in discussions, but prefer­ably in a rational fashion.’

    “In China, that is meaningful. If the reports were rubbish, the government would clearly state that, and tell people to not spread false rumours.”

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    Ophthalmologist Li Wenliang, who was reprimanded by the police after alerting colleagues to a Sars-like virus and who later died of Covid-19. Photo: Weibo

    The final piece of “evidence” in Global Research’s March 4 article is headed “Taiwan Virologist Suggests the Coronavirus Originated in the US”, and includes an embedded video of a Taiwan television show, identified as This! Is Not News, and a screenshot of a man with a pointer giving a colourful lecture about the origins of the virus. “The man in the video is a top virologist and pharmacologist who performed a long and detailed search for the source of the virus,” claims the article.

    Except the man in the video – whom the report does not name – is not a virologist at all. He is a politician from the pro-Beijing New Party and a member of the Taipei City Council, who, before entering politics full time in 2002, was a pharmacology professor.

    The clip opens with an introduction from a man in a crew cut, who talks about China and Russia and Georgian defectors carrying American biowarfare secrets, and mosquitoes and bats developed by the US for diabolical purposes. As he talks, tabloid-sized purple characters scroll along the bottom of the screen, punctuated with question marks and exclamation marks, and the one English acronym every conspiracy theorist worldwide knows: “CIA!”

    Capping his performance is a 1981 analysis purported to have been carried out by the US Army that showed the attraction of “entomological warfare” to the US military and American taxpayers: 50 per cent of a city of 1.2 million people could be wiped out at a per-corpse cost of 29 cents.

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    Military Personnel stand guard outside the US Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases at Fort Detrick. Photo: AFP

    Up next, “the man in the video”notes that, while the man with the crew cut had been talking in terms of Cold War-style geopolitics where everybody fears and loathes everybody else, he is there solely to discuss science. Then he waves a pointer with a plastic yellow index finger at its tip, indicating diagrams of multicoloured circles. As the most complex diagram arrives on screen, he reassures the show’s hostess, “The next slide will make it very clear.”

    Such was Global Research’s Taiwan “expert evidence”. Undaunted, the article continues: “The Taiwanese doctor then stated the virus outbreak began earlier than assumed, saying, ‘We must look to September of 2019’.

    “He stated the case in September of 2019 where some Japanese travelled to Hawaii and returned home infected, people who had never been to China. This was two months prior to the infections in China and just after the CDC suddenly and totally shut down the Fort Detrick bio-weapons lab claiming the facilities were insufficient to prevent loss of pathogens.”

    The introduction of the US Army’s Fort Detrick bio-weapons lab is a solid piece of conspiracy theory crafts­manship. The “man in the video” had not mentioned Fort Detrick – Global Research did, in an apparent attempt to tie the Taiwanese “virologist’s” Japanese travellers who visited Hawaii in September to a US Army bioweapons lab.

    The Fort Detrick facility had not been “suddenly and totally shut down” – it ceased research in mid-July (and not in September). And how one of the most contagious viruses in history travelled from Maryland to Hawaii over a six- to eight-week period, leaving no trail of illness and death, goes unexamined by Global Research.

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    Renowned Chinese respiratory specialist Zhong Nanshan. Photo: Xinhua

    For good measure, the article closes by listing six outbreaks in 2018, 2019 and 2020 of “pandemics” that “sickened” and “killed” people, chickens and pigs in China. Each includes notes such as, “China needs to purchase US agricultural products,” suggesting that as part of the trade war, the US has been unleashing pathogens in the mainland for more than two years in order to make China buy American.

    In summary, the March 4 article invokes mainland hero Zhong, the “Japanese” and the “Taiwanese” – two American allies with no reason to lie – and adds the “CIA” and a leaky US bioweapons research lab for spice. All independent and none really confirming the others while appearing to come close. Perhaps most impressive of all, the author produced almost 2,000 America-bashing words, and not one of them was “Trump”.

    On March 5, without citing the Global Research March 4 piece or any of the underlying Chinese media articles, Zhao tweeted: “Confirmed cases of #COVID19 were first found in China, but its origin is not necessarily in China. We are still tracing the origin.”

    On March 11, Global Research published a follow-up: “COVID-19: Further Evidence that the Virus Originated in the US”.

    The story begins by recapping the March 4 article, upgrading the never-found Japanese Asahi broadcasters and the “man in the video” to “Japanese and Taiwanese epidemiologists and pharmacologists [who] have deter­mined that the new coronavirus could have originated in the US”. The “man in the video” was now also a “physician” and a “scientist”.

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    Personnel working inside Fort Detrick. Photo: AFP

    Recalling his attempt to place the first Covid-19 case in the US, Global Research again points out, “immediately prior to that, the CDC totally shut down the US Military’s main bio-lab at Fort Detrick, Maryland, due to an absence of safeguards against pathogen leakages, issuing a complete ‘cease and desist’ order to the military”.

    As evidence, Global Research had posted a screenshot of an August 5 New York Times headline, “Deadly Germ Research Is Shut Down at Army Lab Over Safety Concerns; Problems with disposal of dangerous materials led the government to suspend research at the military’s leading biodefence centre”.

    In fact, the New York Times article had not stated the centre had been “totally shut down”. It had reported that 900 people worked at the facility and, “Although many projects are on hold, [a facility spokeswoman] said scien­tists and other employees are continuing to work, just not on select agents”. Both The New York Times and a local newspaper that first reported the cessation of the research noted that no pathogens had escaped the facility.

    Global Research’s March 11 story continues: “We also had the Japanese citizens infected in September of 2019, in Hawaii, people who had never been to China, these infec­tions occurring on US soil long before the outbreak in Wuhan but only shortly after the locking down of Fort Detrick.

    “Then, on Chinese social media, another article appeared, aware of the above but presenting further details. It stated in part that five ‘foreign’ athletes or other personnel visiting Wuhan for the World Military Games (October 18-27, 2019) were hospitalised in Wuhan for an undetermined infection.”

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    The opening ceremony of the CISM Military World Games, in Wuhan. Photo: Reuters

    That other article is a blog on Chinese social media, identified only by a QR code, that began: “Because there have been so many American dogs recently, in consider­ation for my account’s safety, [I must write] ‘some country’ or ‘M Country’ [when referring to America].”

    The blog entry, which appeared to be a work in progress and is no longer online, recycled much of Global Research’s March 4 article, adding screenshots of local news stories about US military personnel in Wuhan for the October military gameswho were hospitalised.

    According to Global Research: “The article explains more clearly that the Wuhan version of the virus could have come only from the US because it is what they call a ‘branch’ which could not have been created first because it would have no ‘seed’. It would have to have been a new variety spun off the original ‘trunk’, and that trunk exists only in the US.”

    So there it was. A post on “Chinese social media” about “‘foreign’ athletes or other personnel visiting Wuhan for the World Military Games” in October completed the conspiracy’s journey. The fake news world had rewritten the origin of Covid-19: it was not due to a catastrophic natural occurrence somewhere in or around Wuhan, as the world’s scientists believed, but to a bio­weapon brought to Wuhan by the US Army.

    At the end of its March 11 article, Global Research returned to January, citing two articles in Science magazine for further “evidence” of its conspiracy – neither of which states the origin of the virus was, as Global Research puts it, “Not in Wuhan” – tying a bow around the package Zhao would soon forward to hundreds of thousands, who would forward it to hundreds of millions.

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    On the morning of March 13, Zhao tweeted links to the Global Research articles: “This article is very much important to each and every one of us. Please read and retweet it. COVID-19: Further Evidence that the Virus Originated in the US. It would be useful to read this prior article for background: China’s Coronavirus: A Shocking Update. Did The Virus …”

    Followed by:

    “Just take a few minutes to read one more article. This is so astonishing that it changed many things I used to believe in. Please retweet to let more people know about it. China’s Coronavirus: A Shocking Update. Did The Virus Originate in the US? – Global Research: The Western media quickly laid out the official narrative for the outbreak of COVID-19 which appeared to have begun in China …”

    By late afternoon, the South China Morning Post reported that the hashtag topic “Zhao Lijian sent out five consecutive tweets questioning the US” had been viewed more than 4.7 million times on Weibo. Twelve hours later, The New York Times reported it had been viewed more than 160 million times.

    Zhao’s Twitter followers have increased from 287,000 to more than 500,000. Media worldwide carried stories about his tweets, putting them in front of millions more readers, most of whom would never have seen them on Twitter or Weibo. Fake virus news had gone viral.

    In October, the US Senate Select Committee on Intelligence noted in the first line of its report on Russia’s use of social media to meddle in the 2016 US presidential election, that “information warfare [is] designed to spread disinformation and societal division”. Zhao’s tweets accom­plished both. The disinformation was obvious. Critical thinking in abeyance, plenty of people will believe a claim that the US Army planted Covid-19 in Wuhan; even more will want it to be true.

    When US President Donald Trump, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and others began fighting back by loudly and repeatedly calling Covid-19 “the Chinese virus”, social division in the US grew, if that is possible. The media accused Trump of being racist and xenophobic, and inciting more of the same towards Chinese-Americans. This only caused Trump to say it louder and more often.

    One wonders how much longer Washington will conti­nue fighting the information war against Beijing with one arm tied behind its back. Chinese media enjoy free run of the US, including on Twitter. The US has no such freedom in China.

    Not a few pundits in these past few weeks have predicted Covid-19 will end globalisation, or even “life as we know it”. That seems unlikely, given the short-term nature of people’s memories and how profitable “life as we know it” has been for so many. But given the mischief Zhao’s tweets caused, Beijing’s days on Twitter might be numbered.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 04/04/2020 – 22:50

  • Putin: Oil Glut Is Really About Saudi Desire To Crush US Shale
    Putin: Oil Glut Is Really About Saudi Desire To Crush US Shale

    While it appears an expected emergency virtual OPEC+ meeting planned for Monday has been postponed, pushed back to later in the week to allow more time for negotiations, it’s likely that we’ll actually see the heated blame-game for the collapse in oil prices ratchet up  and oh, in the meantime oil is set to crater come Monday as the feud is only expected to get uglier. 

    Indeed the aggressive war of words has started, with Putin offering a biting Russian narrative aimed at the Saudis in remarks Friday: “It was the pullout by our partners from Saudi Arabia from the OPEC+ deal, their increase in production and their announcement that they were even ready to give discounts on oil” that drove the crash alongside the double-whammy of the coronavirus-driven drop in demand, Putin said according to Bloomberg.

    “This was apparently linked to efforts by our partners from Saudi Arabia to eliminate competitors who produce so-called shale oil,” Putin continued. “To do that, the price needs to be below $40 a barrel. And they succeeded in that. But we don’t need that, we never set such a goal.”

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    Via Daily Mail

    Thus in one fell swoop Putin, ironically enough, framed the new ‘war on US shale’ as in reality a Saudi dirty little secret and motive despite all spin to the contrary, perhaps also seeking to inject division and tension in the close Washington-Riyadh alliance.

    Both Russia and the Saudis opened the taps and prices plunged following Russia’s early March declaration that it would be quitting the OPEC plan to slash output by 1 million bpd, conditioned also on Russia-led non-OPEC countries cutting 500,000 bpd. Moscow reasoned that ultimately US shale-oil producers would be the ones benefiting as they had previously, filling the gaps in earlier curtailments. 

    Putin’s attack has for the time being had the immediate effect of forcing Riyadh into the awkward position of having to deny it could have been a willing participant in deeper machinations to crush US shale producers in a price war. This as already the steep drop-off in prices have left some US shale producers saying they’re ready to initiate voluntary production cuts amid the ballooning oil glut, as the WSJ reported Friday.

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    Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan responded to Putin in early Saturday comments, blasting the allegations as “fully devoid of truth.”

    “Russia was the one that refused the agreement” the Saudi foreign ministry statement said. “The kingdom and 22 other countries were trying to to persuade Russia to make further cuts and extend the agreement.”

    Energy minister and half-brother of Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman said something similar, noticeably without taking the shale angle to the Russian accusations head-on.

    “The Russian Minister of Energy was first to declare to the media that all the participating countries are absolved of their commitments,” he said. “This led to the decision by countries to raise their production in order to offset lower prices and compensate for their loss of returns.”

    Interestingly, Bloomberg’s own summary of the OPEC+ unraveling tacitly admits what few pundits are ready to do, namely that the Saudis for all practical purposes have appeared ‘equal partners’ in squeezing US shale: “The Saudis, who have ramped up production to a record 12 million barrels a day in the past month and massively discounted the price of their oil, have insisted a new agreement must involve significant contributions from all OPEC+ nations and major producers outside the coalition, including the U.S. and Canada,” as the report puts it.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 04/04/2020 – 22:25

  • Goldman Warns Of A "Significant" Adverse Impact On Stocks As 2020 Buybacks Are Cut In Half
    Goldman Warns Of A “Significant” Adverse Impact On Stocks As 2020 Buybacks Are Cut In Half

    One week ago, following the fastest bear market on record…

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    … which was followed by one of the fastest bear market rallies in history (which briefly became a bull market from the March 20 lows), Goldman’s clients – together with everyone else – had just one question: was this the bottom?

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    One week later, with the market below last Friday’s lows, it appears that nobody knows what the correct answer is. So, to narrow down the confusion, Goldman’s clients have shifted their attention to a just a more easily answerable question: will the buybacks that helped push the market to all time highs on increasingly less volume, still be there in the coming months?

    The reason for the angst is the fact that, as we wrote last Sunday, Goldman’s buyback desk warned that nearly 50 US companies have suspended existing share repurchase authorizations in the past two weeks, representing $190 billion of buybacks or nearly 25% of the 2019 total.There’s more: as Goldman’s chief equity strategist David Kostin wrote,  reduced cash flows and select restrictions mandated as part of the Phase 3 fiscal legislation “suggest more suspensions are likely.” And since buybacks have represented the single largest source of US equity demand in each of the last several years…

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    … the strategist concludes that “higher volatility and lower equity valuations are among the likely consequences of reduced buybacks.”

    Which brings us to the latest weekly note from the Goldman strategist, in which he writes that in the latest week, “many of our investor discussions gravitated towards the topic of dividends and share repurchases. The intensifying economic crisis, collapse in company revenues, flurry of suspension announcements, and restrictions in the recently-passed $2 trillion fiscal package have raised questions regarding future corporate cash spending priorities.”

    His answer will hardly appeal to Goldman’s client base, or anyone else for that matter, so used to corporation repurchasing their stocks when times get rough: in 2020, Goldman forecasts that S&P 500 dividends will fall by 25% and buybacks will plummet by 50% compared with 2019 levels.

    Here are the details behind Goldman’s dour assessment, first dividends:

    We estimate S&P 500 dividends will decline by 25% in 2020. Dividends actually rose by 9% during 1Q. However, dividend suspensions, cuts, and eliminations will result in DPS falling by 38% during the next nine months so on a full-year basis dividends will be 25% below the level of last year.

    And then buybacks:

    In total, we expect S&P 500 share repurchases will decline by 50% to $371 billion during 2020. Despite elevated market volatility, a review of sell-side analyst estimates published since the market’s peak suggests buybacks likely fell by 21% during the first quarter. However, Goldman Sachs buyback desk executions actually rose by 25% year/year. Averaging these two approaches, we assume buybacks were flat year/year during 1Q. We forecast buybacks will fall by 75% year/year in 2Q, by 70% in 3Q, and by 65% in 4Q. An additional 40% year/year slide during 1Q 2021 will result in 12-month repurchase volume that is 65% below the 2018 peak.

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    The irony, of course, is that company should not have been repurchasing their stock at the all time S&P500 highs, yet that’s precisely what they were doing. In fact, as we explained in late 2019, the main reason why stocks were at all time highs at a time when virtually every investor class was selling, was because of stock buybacks!

    To be sure, our insistence ever since 2012 that it was only buybacks behind the market’s relentless grind higher, was met with stern opposition and mockery from some of the more imbecilic financial commentators, most of whom were either tweeting from their parents’ basement or the AQR trading floor, although suddenly their vocal “explanations” how buybacks had nothing to do with the stock market – even though it was painfully obvious why speculators would always frontrun and buy ahead of price indiscriminate CFOs and treasurers who had billions in freshly minted dollar burning a hole in their pockets thanks to a record amount of debt issuance and who were buying up their stock to make sure their equity-linked comp was deep in the money – have gone very mute.

    So for the benefit of all those “financial expert” idiots who did not have a grasp of the simplest concept in capital markets, namely supply and demand (and likely still don’t now), here is not some fringe blog but Goldman Sachs setting the record straight once and for all:

    “The decline in share repurchases will have a significant impact on the equity market.”

    Got that fintwit echo chamber? We doubt it, so here is Kostin’s fuller explanation: “Corporate buybacks have far exceeded demand from all other investor categories combined since 2010.

    As an aside, this is something we have been saying… since 2012!  Starting in 2012, among countless other pieces on the topic, we wrote “How The Fed’s Visible Hand Is Forcing Corporate Cash Mismanagement” and “Where The Levered Corporate “Cash On The Sidelines” Is Truly Going”, i.e., buybacks“, then in 2013 with “$500 Billion In 2013 Corporate Buybacks: Half Of QE“, then again in 2014 in “Here Is The Mystery, And Completely Indiscriminate, Buyer Of Stocks In The First Quarter” then in 2015 “It’s Not The Record High Debt That Is The Biggest Risk, It’s [the dropping cash flows]”, and on, and on, and on, we have constantly explained that the primary source of stock buying over the past several years have been corporate management teams repurchasing their own shares using ever greater amounts of debt as a source of funds, in the process boosting not only their stock price but their equity-linked compensation and bonus pools.

    It only took nearly a decade for what we said – which was year after year mocked and ridiculed by the so-called “experts” – to become Wall Street gospel. With that we give the floor back to Kostin: “The removal of the principal buyer of shares will widen trading ranges and increase volatility.”

    And the punchline: “Reduced buyback spending means less downside support for equity prices since fewer firms will step in to repurchase shares if their stock prices fall. During the past 25 years, the 20th percentile return for stocks within the S&P 500 has averaged -27% annualized during buyback blackout periods compared with -16% when companies can freely repurchase their shares. Fewer buybacks also means slower EPS growth. Since 2008, the gap between EPS growth and earnings growth for the aggregate S&P 500 index averaged 1-2 pp annually. “

    And just like that the debate whether stock buybacks propped up stock prices is over, and anyone who has ever told you otherwise should be ignored.

    A few more points before we close the chapter on this formerly controversial topic forever, here is Goldman’s explanation why buybacks are about to fall off a cliff:

    The recently passed Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act prohibits buybacks and dividends among companies that accept assistance from the Treasury. The bill stipulates that any company that borrows money from the Treasury may not repurchase stock or pay a dividend until 12 months after the loan is repaid. The bill explicitly provisions assistance for airlines, air cargo, and aerospace companies, but our economists believe any company receiving assistance under the Treasury’s $454 billion credit facility could also be subject to these restrictions. More guidance from the Treasury is expected soon.

    Since the start of March, 51 S&P 500 companies accounting for 27% of 2019 aggregate buybacks have suspended their repurchase programs. While United Airlines, Delta Airlines, Southwest Airlines, and Alaska Air have suspended buybacks, not all repurchase suspensions have come from companies expected to receive government assistance. Eight of the largest US banks recently announced that they would suspend buybacks through at least the second quarter and allocate that capital toward supporting the global economy. Prominent retailers, hoteliers, and cruise operators have also suspended their buyback programs.

    What about the sectors that have mattered the most in recent years, namely tech?

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    Yep, them too.

    Semiconductor and Pharmaceutical buybacks are also likely to decline. Intel recently announced that it was suspending its buyback program, which totaled $13.5 billion last year (nearly 2% of S&P 500 total). Broadcom reiterated that buybacks are on hold. Our semiconductors analysts expect other chipmakers will follow suit and noted that many investors have indicated they would prefer firms focus on shoring up the balance sheet rather than repurchasing stock. Our biopharma analysts believe that the current political spotlight on repurchases may result in firms reducing repurchase spending in 2020 despite significant outstanding authorizations.

    And while we already know that such a plunge in buybacks which was last observed during the financial crisis will have a “significant” and not positive “impact on the equity market”, what does it mean quantitatively?

    The historical relationship between EPS growth and buyback growth would suggest a roughly 30% decline in buybacks during 2020.

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    However, we believe the decline in share repurchases will be worse than this relationship implies. Our quarterly review of S&P 500 earnings transcripts consistently reveals that management teams view buybacks as the lowest priority use of cash. A spate of recent suspensions, escalating employee layoffs, and increasing political and social pressure will curtail buyback spending, which remains historically elevated following the passage of corporate tax reform

    In historical context, a 50% decline in buybacks would be consistent with the 8-quarter, 67% peak-to-trough decline during the Global Financial Crisis.

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    Repurchases also declined by 56% peak-to-trough over a period of 11 quarters during the early 1990s. Following each of these sharp declines, equity issuance actually exceeded share repurchases: so are we about to see a flood stock buybacks in reverse as cash-strapped companies flood the market with their shares a la what Carnival did last week? Back in 2008/2009 S&P 500 firms issued $453 billion of equity during the 12-month period ended September 2009, more than double the $208 billion of aggregate share repurchases. Will the number this time be above $1 trillion?

    Finally, with everyone fleeing away from companies that have historically returned most capital to investors due to fears such shareholder friendly activity is now over, Goldman is too, and as Kostin concludes, “we rebalance our baskets of stocks with the largest spending on buybacks and dividends. Our sector-neutral Buyback basket (GSTHREPO) consists of the 50 S&P 500 stocks with the largest trailing 12-month buyback spending as a share of market cap. Our Total Cash Return basket (GSTHCASH), also sector-neutral, consists of the stocks with the highest combined buyback and dividend spending over the same period. Both of these baskets have underperformed sharply YTD…

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    … as investors skeptical of the sustainability of buybacks and dividends have instead rewarded firms with safe balance sheets and those paying down debt” as well as those companies that generate cash flow instead of “pie in the sky” growth narratives that only a Tesla lemming could believe.

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    Well would you look at that: efficient, rational markets are suddenly back, now that companies can’t fall back to the old trick of issuing ultra cheap credit to boost their stock price.

    In other words, the Fed may well be on its way to nationalizing the entire market, but in its last gasps of normalcy, the market is finally exhibiting the kind of lucid efficiency, at least briefly, that was missing for much of the past decade, and for once is actually doing the right thing in rewarding prudent corporate behavior and debt repayment while punishing all those companies that hit all time highs only because their management teams knew nothing more than “wave it in.”

    We doubt the Fed will allow this kind of rational behavior to last too long before it goes “full USSR” and completely takes over the stock market as well, at which point capitalism will officially be dead.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 04/04/2020 – 22:00

  • From 'Nightmare' To 'Surprisingly Seamless' – Small Business Owners Describe COVID-19 Bailout Experiences
    From ‘Nightmare’ To ‘Surprisingly Seamless’ – Small Business Owners Describe COVID-19 Bailout Experiences

    The Trump administration’s $350 billion SBA Paycheck Protection Program was launched on Friday as part of the $2 trillion bailout package, letting small businesses gain access to capital for payroll and other overhead costs.

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    As we reported on Friday, the rollout went horribly awry for some – with banks such as BofA requiring an existing credit line to qualify, surprising many. JPM delayed the rollout until 1pm, while Wells Fargo and others completely dropped the ball.

    That said, it wasn’t all bad on Friday – with some business owners such as small business owner Kyle Stewart, who told Bloomberg that the process was “surprisingly seamless” when he applied for a loan to keep his batting-cage and baseball training business afloat.

    After spending two hours gathering the payroll and business information required and completing the Paycheck Protection Program application Thursday night, Kyle found uploading the form to the bank’s portal Friday morning was “surprisingly seamless” and automated.

    After San Francisco announced a shelter-in-place order on March 16, Stewart told his five hourly workers he wouldn’t be able to pay them going forward. The timing couldn’t have been worse, as his company makes 60% of its profit in the month of March ahead of the baseball season. He’s hoping the loan will help keep them on until the business is able to reopen. –Bloomberg

    We are still stuck on second base with 2 outs in the ninth inning,” said Stewart. “Here is to hoping for a clutch hit from the Feds.

    Cute.

    Others, such as Ohio hair salon owner Clara Osterhage found the process to be a “nightmare.” After gathering documents in preparation to be one of the first in line with her application on Friday, she was told by her small regional bank at 11 a.m. that they weren’t going to be able to submit applications that day, and that ‘even big banks weren’t able to do it.’

    “This is a nightmare,” she said, adding that she doesn’t have a clue when she’ll gain access to the funds she needs.

    How do I feel? Uncertain with a capital ‘U.’

    Goat’s milk soap maker Theresa Richard of Arnaudville, Louisiana was “at a loss” after trying to obtain a loan for her Youngsville store, Bain Amour Bath & Body Co., which has been shut since the state’s March 22 stay-at-home order, which has left her lone employee without work.

    Richard’s local bank, Farmers and Merchants Bank & Trust Co. of Beaux Bridge told her they’re still waiting on more information about the program. Her other bank, Chase, sent her an email notifying her that they wouldn’t be ready for the program’s Friday morning launch.

    “Nobody has a real clear idea of what they need in place to start doing the loans,” she said.

    Community bankers are “rightfully frustrated and, in many cases, livid” after promised online portals never went live on Friday, said Rebeca Romero Rainey, chief executive officer of Independent Community Bankers of America.

    It was “a nightmare situation,” Rainey said. “Media reports continue to indicate successful launches through the country by community banks, few of which we have been able to confirm.” –Bloomberg

    Robin Schultz, who operates Birmingham, Alabama commercial lighting company Quality Electric, says that despite using the same lender for over two decades that she was surprised to receive an email from them Thursday night notifying her that it hadn’t received guidelines from the feds.

    After trying to apply at 4 a.m. Friday morning, she received an email around noon to let her know that the site was operational. Moments later, it was down, and she still wasn’t able to file paperwork for the loan.

    More tales of woe and optimism (via Bloomberg):

    ‘Eight Weeks Is Ten Years’

    Erik Bruun owns SoCo Creamery, an ice cream shop and wholesale supplier in Great Barrington, Massachusetts. Foot traffic into his store is slower this time of the year, but is down 60% from where it typically is.

    Wholesale ice cream sales, which make up the majority of revenue during the off-season, have completely stopped.

    Bruun applied for an emergency loan last week but has yet to hear back. He tried to apply to the paycheck protection program as well, but his local bank told him the application changed and he’d have to wait until they receive instructions to proceed.

    The application made it sound like the money would be dispersed in 72 hours. Time is critical right now, and even if his paycheck protection application is approved he’s not sure if the duration will be enough.

    “Eight weeks? Eight weeks is ten years right now,” he said. “Eight weeks ago we lived in the allegedly good times. Now we live in the Great Depression.”

    One small perk with the lockdown: as people hunker down, pint sales in local grocery stores are up.

    ‘So Much Confusion’

    Wahid Nassar, who runs a restaurant in Highlands, New Jersey, tried going online Friday morning to apply for the loan through his lender, Bank of America, but repeatedly got error messages.

    “There’s so much confusion and hard to get a straight answer from anyone right now,” he said.

    ‘Bringing Hope’

    At 9:30 a.m. Friday, the paperwork, so utterly confusing at times, was finally in order for Jason Maxwell. The CEO of MassPay, a payroll and human resources firm that employs 59 people in Beverly, Massachusetts, faxed his application for an SBA loan to his banker in nearby Salem.

    Late Thursday, Maxwell was told the federal loan program had tweaked its application. Luckily, Maxwell has a good relationship with his banker, Ed Lomasney, a senior vice president at Salem Five Bank. Lomasney contacted Maxwell, who immediately filled out the new form.

    Maxwell has worked with Lomasney for seven years, even switching lenders when the banker relocated to a new financial-services institution three years ago.

    “He’s the kind of guy who would knock down doors for us,” Maxwell said of his financial guru, who was too busy Friday with applications to comment.

    Maxwell has also been helping other business owners navigate the programs and loans available. He called the owner of his favorite coffee shop, who is not a client, when he heard the man was feeling utterly hopeless, and offered information and advice on how to get some relief.

    The programs “are bringing hope to a pretty grim situation,” Maxwell said.

    ‘Somewhat Optimistic’

    Steve Vernetti, owner of Vernetti, an Italian restaurant in Los Angeles that’s a favorite of Mayor Eric Garcetti, said he had to fill out multiple applications because they kept changing, including as recently as Friday morning.

    “It seems like the program is being fleshed out in real-time,” Vernetti said.

    Vernetti said his business manager has a close relationship with his bank that’s keeping them in the loop, and that “I can only imagine what the confusion is like for those who don’t have the advantages we have.”

    The restaurant owner said he’s been paying his 20 employees for two weeks out of his own pocket but won’t be able to continue. If he gets some confirmation of the SBA funding, he’ll consider opening for pickup and delivery services in two weeks.

    “I am starting to see a way through this, and I am feeling somewhat optimistic,” Vernetti said.

    Let’s see what next week brings in the land of struggling business loans…


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 04/04/2020 – 21:35

  • Nobody Knows How To Politicize A Pandemic Like Nancy Pelosi
    Nobody Knows How To Politicize A Pandemic Like Nancy Pelosi

    Authored by David Krayden via HumanEvents.com,

    The Speaker is using the coronavirus to push through legislation for her very wealthy, very loyal base…

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    On Wednesday, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden (who, one must remember, holds no elected office at the moment) promised that any further coronavirus legislation might just contain something of “my green deal.” It’s not clear if he was referring to some sort of environmental plan—or how he expects to craft legislation from his basement in Delaware—but even Sleepy Joe seems to think that a global pandemic signals a time for pork-barrel politics.

    None among the Democrats has embraced this ethos more than House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, however. As the coronavirus crisis rages on around us, Pelosi is still looking for creative ways to spend your tax dollars.

    After failing to stuff the $2.2 trillion coronavirus stimulus package with a bevy of her social justice pet projects, Pelosi had the gall to announce that Democrats had made the bill about “workers first.”

    “It went from a corporate first proposal that the Republicans put forth in the Senate to a workers first—Democratic workers first—legislation,” said Pelosi, at one of her increasingly bizarre news conferences where the grand dame of Congress appears to be crumbling under the weight of her own rhetoric.

    “The bill that was passed in the Senate last night [Wednesday] and that we will take up tomorrow [Friday] is about mitigation: mitigation for all the loss that we have in our economy while still addressing the emergency health needs that we have in our country.”

    What the Speaker neglected to mention, however, was how her bill would have forced any airline receiving government bailout money to cut their carbon footprint in half and any business to implement a “diversity plan.” Oh, and she made sure the Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts received a handsome handout (note: after they grabbed the $25 million in cash, the management promptly started laying-off musicians).

    Now, Pelosi is moving on to “phase four” of the Democrats’ coronavirus rescue package: save the (Democratic) millionaires.

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    PELOSI WAGES CLASS WARFARE—BUT NOT ON BEHALF OF THE CLASS YOU’D EXPECT

    The Pelosi plan would remove a cap on the state and local tax deduction (SALT) that could quickly put cash in people’s pockets—but the beneficiary won’t be average American workers. The beneficiaries will be the real base of the Democratic Party: millionaire liberals from coastal states.

    The tax rebates would affect approximately 13 million families—very wealthy families, all of which are earning at least $100,000 and many over a million per annum. “More than half of the proceeds from fully repealing the SALT cap would go to the top 1 percent, households making more than about three-quarters of a million dollars a year,” reports Politico.

    To hear Nancy explain the cash infusion, it’s just some extra beer money at the end of the month: “We could reverse that for 2018 and 2019 so that people could refile their taxes” and receive more substantial rebates, Pelosi told The New York Times. “They’d have more disposable income, which is the lifeblood of our economy, a consumer economy that we are.”

    The cruel irony of this latest Democratic ploy is that the SALT cap was put in place as part of President Donald Trump’s tax cuts in 2017. Those are the same tax cuts that Pelosi wanted to repeal because, supposedly, only the wealthy would benefit from them.

    Democrats have wanted the cap removed for quite some time. Democratic New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo was so angry about it in 2017 that he accused the president of waging “economic civil war” on blue states with the measure. It was a huge issue during the 2018 midterm elections, especially among bleeding heart Democrats fighting for their millionaire friends.

    “In the 2018 midterm elections, Democrats wielded the SALT limits in House campaigns against Republicans in wealthy blue-state suburbs of cities like New York, Los Angeles and Chicago,” writes the Times. According to Politico, House Democrats “who made large gains in upscale suburbs as they took the majority in the 2018 elections” voted last year to repeal the cap, but the effort died in the Republican-controlled Senate—“where few states represented by Republicans are all that troubled by the $10,000 limit.”

    Removing the SALT cap benefits the people who really embody what Pelosi’s party has become: a coffee clatch of free-thinking progressives who have nothing better to do with their time but think of ways to socially re-engineer the rest of society by obsessing over the LGBT-GQ agenda, inventing genders that don’t exist, and worrying about hate speech lurking under every bed. The kind of people who have the inclination to attend a Seattle yoga class in “undoing whiteness.” The only blue-collar workers they know are the ones who fix the plumbing and pick up the garbage.

    “These are people who won’t spend the extra money and don’t really need it,” Michael Linden, executive director of the progressive Groundwork Collaborative, told Politico.

    “That’s why they were left out of the cash assistance in the first place.”

    But, as Pelosi demonstrated during the last COVID-19 stimulus bill, a health crisis provides a serendipitous opportunity to pass a plethora of unrelated legislation—and Madame Speaker is apparently up to her antics again.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 04/04/2020 – 21:10

  • Looting Wave Strikes New York City Amid Coronavirus Lockdown
    Looting Wave Strikes New York City Amid Coronavirus Lockdown

    We’ve been laying out the possible case for the next phase of the COVID-19 pandemic could be social unrest. 

    Millions of Americans have just lost their jobs, have no saving, and insurmountable debts, are flooding food banks across the nation to survive. With the economy crashed and now entering a depression, last week was a significant milestone in the progression of the crisis, as looting of businesses in California and South Carolina began.

    Now the looting is spreading across the nation. We noted how stores in New York, San Francisco, Seattle, and Chicago, were boarding up their windows, preparing for civil unrest. 

    After all, when 10 million people lose their jobs in two weeks, and an estimated unemployment rate that could reach 15-20% in the second quarter, as per RealInvestmentAdvice.com’s Lance Roberts latest report, the ripple effect on society is so sudden that there could very well be an outbreak of unrest when the weather shifts too much warmer trends, and geographically be situated in low-income areas of inner cities. Hence why the National Guard was called up and now being positioned around and or in major metros

    The beginning innings of social unrest could now be unfolding across New York City. Households are cracking as hundreds of thousands have lost their jobs over several weeks. The city has become the epicenter of the virus crisis, recording 103,060 confirmed cases and 2,935 deaths (as of Saturday afternoon, April 4).  

    The Wall Street Journal reports an increase in burglaries of commercial establishments across all five boroughs from March 12-31, coinciding when mass shutdowns went into effect. 

    The New York City Police Department (NYPD) recorded a 75% jump in burglaries of businesses during the period, or about 254 burglaries, compared with 145 over the same period last year.

    “The increase in burglaries coincided with steps to stop the spread of the coronavirus. On March 15, the city ordered restaurants and bars to cease on-site service, prompting many establishments to close altogether or limit operations. A March 20 decree by Gov. Andrew Cuomo called for the closure of all nonessential businesses, leading many retail stores to shutter,” the Journal noted. 

    “We knew with the closing of many stores that we could see an increase and, unfortunately, we are,” said NYPD Chief of Crime Control Strategies Michael LiPetri.

    LiPetri said the most targeted establishments by criminals had been restaurants, supermarkets, and retail stores. Between March 12-31, there were over 30 reports of burglaries of supermarkets, a 400% increase over the same period last year. 

    He said thieves were specifically after food, alcohol, and retail goods. Many gained entry from rooftops and or forcing doors open or breaking windows. 

    The Journal notes that some retail chains have boarded up shops across the city, citing fears that social unrest could soon follow. Here are some shops that have already boarded up windows: 

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    As looting surges in New York City, the next fear is that the NYPD could become overwhelmed by virus-related incidents and or a shortage of officers. 

    On Friday, one out of every six NYPD officers was sick or in quarantine. Over 1,500 have tested positive for the virus, which could lead to decreased patrols while crime is surging across the city. 

    “It’s a worst-case scenario across the board,” a sergeant told The New York Times. 

    And now it should make sense why President Trump recently signed an executive order to activate up to one million troops – that is because the evolution of the virus crisis and economic collapse, is social unrest and looting and whatever else that may bring


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 04/04/2020 – 20:45

  • All Trails Lead Back To The Wuhan Bio-Lab
    All Trails Lead Back To The Wuhan Bio-Lab

    Authored by Jim Geraghty via NationalReview.com,

    There’s no proof the coronavirus accidentally escaped from a laboratory, but we can’t take the Chinese government’s denials at face value.

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    It is understandable that many would be wary of the notion that the origin of the coronavirus could be discovered by some documentary filmmaker who used to live in China. Matthew Tye, who creates YouTube videos, contends he has identified the source of the coronavirus — and a great deal of the information that he presents, obtained from public records posted on the Internet, checks out.

    The Wuhan Institute of Virology in China indeed posted a job opening on November 18, 2019, “asking for scientists to come research the relationship between the coronavirus and bats.”

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    The Google translation of the job posting is: “Taking bats as the research object, I will answer the molecular mechanism that can coexist with Ebola and SARS- associated coronavirus for a long time without disease, and its relationship with flight and longevity. Virology, immunology, cell biology, and multiple omics are used to compare the differences between humans and other mammals.” (“Omics” is a term for a subfield within biology, such as genomics or glycomics.)

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    On December 24, 2019, the Wuhan Institute of Virology posted a second job posting. The translation of that posting includes the declaration, “long-term research on the pathogenic biology of bats carrying important viruses has confirmed the origin of bats of major new human and livestock infectious diseases such as SARS and SADS, and a large number of new bat and rodent new viruses have been discovered and identified.”

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    Tye contends that that posting meant, “we’ve discovered a new and terrible virus, and would like to recruit people to come deal with it.” He also contends that “news didn’t come out about coronavirus until ages after that.” Doctors in Wuhan knew that they were dealing with a cluster of pneumonia cases as December progressed, but it is accurate to say that a very limited number of people knew about this particular strain of coronavirus and its severity at the time of that job posting. By December 31, about three weeks after doctors first noticed the cases, the Chinese government notified the World Health Organization and the first media reports about a “mystery pneumonia” appeared outside China.

    Scientific American verifies much of the information Tye mentions about Shi Zhengli, the Chinese virologist nicknamed “Bat Woman” for her work with that species.

    Shi — a virologist who is often called China’s “bat woman” by her colleagues because of her virus-hunting expeditions in bat caves over the past 16 years — walked out of the conference she was attending in Shanghai and hopped on the next train back to Wuhan. “I wondered if [the municipal health authority] got it wrong,” she says. “I had never expected this kind of thing to happen in Wuhan, in central China.” Her studies had shown that the southern, subtropical areas of Guangdong, Guangxi and Yunnan have the greatest risk of coronaviruses jumping to humans from animals — particularly bats, a known reservoir for many viruses. If coronaviruses were the culprit, she remembers thinking, “could they have come from our lab?”

    . . . By January 7 the Wuhan team determined that the new virus had indeed caused the disease those patients suffered — a conclusion based on results from polymerase chain reaction analysis, full genome sequencing, antibody tests of blood samples and the virus’s ability to infect human lung cells in a petri dish. The genomic sequence of the virus — now officially called SARS-CoV-2 because it is related to the SARS pathogen — was 96 percent identical to that of a coronavirus the researchers had identified in horseshoe bats in Yunnan, they reported in a paper published last month in Nature. “It’s crystal clear that bats, once again, are the natural reservoir,” says Daszak, who was not involved in the study.

    Some scientists aren’t convinced that the virus jumped straight from bats to human beings, but there are a few problems with the theory that some other animal was an intermediate transmitter of COVID-19 from bats to humans:

    Analyses of the SARS-CoV-2 genome indicate a single spillover event, meaning the virus jumped only once from an animal to a person, which makes it likely that the virus was circulating among people before December. Unless more information about the animals at the Wuhan market is released, the transmission chain may never be clear. There are, however, numerous possibilities. A bat hunter or a wildlife trafficker might have brought the virus to the market. Pangolins happen to carry a coronavirus, which they might have picked up from bats years ago, and which is, in one crucial part of its genome, virtually identical to SARS-CoV-2. But no one has yet found evidence that pangolins were at the Wuhan market, or even that venders there trafficked pangolins.

    On February 4 — one week before the World Health Organization decided to officially name this virus “COVID-19” — the journal Cell Research posted a notice written by scientists at the Wuhan Institute of Virology about the virus, concluding, “our findings reveal that remdesivir and chloroquine are highly effective in the control of 2019-nCoV infection in vitro. Since these compounds have been used in human patients with a safety track record and shown to be effective against various ailments, we suggest that they should be assessed in human patients suffering from the novel coronavirus disease.” One of the authors of that notice was the “bat woman,” Shi Zhengli.

    In his YouTube video, Tye focuses his attention on a researcher at the Wuhan Institute of Virology named Huang Yanling: “Most people believe her to be patient zero, and most people believe she is dead.”

    There was enough discussion of rumors about Huang Yanling online in China to spur an official denial. On February 16, the Wuhan Institute of Virology denied that patient zero was one of their employees, and interestingly named her specifically: “Recently there has been fake information about Huang Yanling, a graduate from our institute, claiming that she was patient zero in the novel coronavirus.” Press accounts quote the institute as saying, “Huang was a graduate student at the institute until 2015, when she left the province and had not returned since. Huang was in good health and had not been diagnosed with disease, it added.” None of her publicly available research papers are dated after 2015.

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    The web page for the Wuhan Institute of Virology’s Lab of Diagnostic Microbiology does indeed still have “Huang Yanling” listed as a 2012 graduate student, and her picture and biography appear to have been recently removed — as have those of two other graduate students from 2013, Wang Mengyue and Wei Cuihua.

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    Her name still has a hyperlink, but the linked page is blank. The pages for Wang Mengyue and Wei Cuihua are blank as well.

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    (For what it is worth, the South China Morning Post — a newspaper seen as being generally pro-Beijing — reported on March 13 that “according to the government data seen by the Post, a 55 year-old from Hubei province could have been the first person to have contracted Covid-19 on November 17.”)

    On February 17, Zhen Shuji, a Hong Kong correspondent from the French public-radio service Radio France Internationale, reported: “when a reporter from the Beijing News of the Mainland asked the institute for rumors about patient zero, the institute first denied that there was a researcher Huang Yanling, but after learning that the name of the person on the Internet did exist, acknowledged that the person had worked at the firm but has now left the office and is unaccounted for.”

    Tye says, “everyone on the Chinese internet is searching for [Huang Yanling] but most believe that her body was quickly cremated and the people working at the crematorium were perhaps infected as they were not given any information about the virus.” (The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says that handling the body of someone who has died of coronavirus is safe — including embalming and cremation — as long as the standard safety protocols for handing a decedent are used. It’s anyone’s guess as to whether those safety protocols were sufficiently used in China before the outbreak’s scope was known.)

    As Tye observes, a public appearance by Huang Yanling would dispel a lot of the public rumors, and is the sort of thing the Chinese government would quickly arrange in normal circumstances — presuming that Huang Yanling was still alive. Several officials at the Wuhan Institute of Virology issued public statements that Huang was in good health and that no one at the institute has been infected with COVID-19. In any case, the mystery around Huang Yanling may be moot, but it does point to the lab covering up something about her.

    China Global Television Network, a state-owned television broadcaster, illuminated another rumor while attempting to dispel it in a February 23 report entitled “Rumors Stop With the Wise”:

    On February 17, a Weibo user who claimed herself to be Chen Quanjiao, a researcher at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, reported to the public that the Director of the Institute was responsible for leaking the novel coronavirus. The Weibo post threw a bomb in the cyberspace and the public was shocked. Soon Chen herself stepped out and declared that she had never released any report information and expressed great indignation at such identity fraud on Weibo. It has been confirmed that that particular Weibo account had been shut down several times due to the spread of misinformation about COVID-19.

    That Radio France Internationale report on February 17 also mentioned the next key part of the Tye’s YouTube video. “Xiaobo Tao, a scholar from South China University of Technology, recently published a report that researchers at Wuhan Virus Laboratory were splashed with bat blood and urine, and then quarantined for 14 days.” HK01, another Hong Kong-based news site, reported the same claim.

    This doctor’s name is spelled in English as both “Xiaobo Tao” and “Botao Xiao.” From 2011 to 2013, Botao Xiao was a postdoctoral research fellow at Harvard Medical School and Boston Children’s Hospital, and his biography is still on the web site of the South China University of Technology.

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    At some point in February, Botao Xiao posted a research paper onto ResearchGate.net, “The Possible Origins of 2019-nCoV coronavirus.” He is listed as one author, along with Lei Xiao from Tian You Hospital, which is affiliated with the Wuhan University of Science and Technology. The paper was removed a short time after it was posted, but archived images of its pages can be found here and here.

    The first conclusion of Botao Xiao’s paper is that the bats suspected of carrying the virus are extremely unlikely to be found naturally in the city, and despite the stories of “bat soup,” they conclude that bats were not sold at the market and were unlikely to be deliberately ingested.

    The bats carrying CoV ZC45 were originally found in Yunnan or Zhejiang province, both of which were more than 900 kilometers away from the seafood market. Bats were normally found to live in caves and trees. But the seafood market is in a densely-populated district of Wuhan, a metropolitan [area] of ~15 million people. The probability was very low for the bats to fly to the market. According to municipal reports and the testimonies of 31 residents and 28 visitors, the bat was never a food source in the city, and no bat was traded in the market.

    The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization could not confirm if bats were present at the market. Botao Xiao’s paper theorizes that the coronavirus originated from bats being used for research at either one of two research laboratories in Wuhan.

    We screened the area around the seafood market and identified two laboratories conducting research on bat coronavirus. Within ~ 280 meters from the market, there was the Wuhan Center for Disease Control & Prevention. WHCDC hosted animals in laboratories for research purpose, one of which was specialized in pathogens collection and identification. In one of their studies, 155 bats including Rhinolophus affinis were captured in Hubei province, and other 450 bats were captured in Zhejiang province. The expert in Collection was noted in the Author Contributions (JHT). Moreover, he was broadcasted for collecting viruses on nation-wide newspapers and websites in 2017 and 2019. He described that he was once by attacked by bats and the blood of a bat shot on his skin. He knew the extreme danger of the infection so he quarantined himself for 14 days. In another accident, he quarantined himself again because bats peed on him.

    Surgery was performed on the caged animals and the tissue samples were collected for DNA and RNA extraction and sequencing. The tissue samples and contaminated trashes were source of pathogens. They were only ~280 meters from the seafood market. The WHCDC was also adjacent to the Union Hospital (Figure 1, bottom) where the first group of doctors were infected during this epidemic. It is plausible that the virus leaked around and some of them contaminated the initial patients in this epidemic, though solid proofs are needed in future study.

    The second laboratory was ~12 kilometers from the seafood market and belonged to Wuhan Institute of Virology, Chinese Academy of Sciences . . .

    In summary, somebody was entangled with the evolution of 2019-nCoV coronavirus. In addition to origins of natural recombination and intermediate host, the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan. Safety level may need to be reinforced in high risk biohazardous laboratories. Regulations may be taken to relocate these laboratories far away from city center and other densely populated places.

    However, Xiao has told the Wall Street Journal that he has withdrawn his paper. “The speculation about the possible origins in the post was based on published papers and media, and was not supported by direct proofs,” he said in a brief email on February 26.

    The bat researcher that Xiao’s report refers to is virologist Tian Junhua, who works at the Wuhan Centre for Disease Control. In 2004, the World Health Organization determined that an outbreak of the SARS virus had been caused by two separate leaks at the Chinese Institute of Virology in Beijing. The Chinese government said that the leaks were a result of “negligence” and the responsible officials had been punished.

    In 2017, the Chinese state-owned Shanghai Media Group made a seven-minute documentary about Tian Junhua, entitled “Youth in the Wild: Invisible Defender.” Videographers followed Tian Junhua as he traveled deep into caves to collect bats.

    “Among all known creatures, the bats are rich with various viruses inside,” he says in Chinese.

    “You can find most viruses responsible for human diseases, like rabies virus, SARS, and Ebola. Accordingly, the caves frequented by bats became our main battlefields.” He emphasizes, “bats usually live in caves humans can hardly reach. Only in these places can we find the most ideal virus vector samples.”

    One of his last statements on the video is:

    “In the past ten-plus years, we have visited every corner of Hubei Province. We explored dozens of undeveloped caves and studied more than 300 types of virus vectors. But I do hope these virus samples will only be preserved for scientific research and will never be used in real life. Because humans need not only the vaccines, but also the protection from the nature.”

    The description of Tian Junhua’s self-isolation came from a May 2017 report by Xinhua News Agency, repeated by the Chinese news site JQKNews.com:

    The environment for collecting bat samples is extremely bad. There is a stench in the bat cave. Bats carry a large number of viruses in their bodies. If they are not careful, they are at risk of infection. But Tian Junhua is not afraid to go to the mountain with his wife to catch Batman.

    Tian Junhua summed up the experience that the most bats can be caught by using the sky cannon and pulling the net. But in the process of operation, Tian Junhua forgot to take protective measures. Bat urine dripped on him like raindrops from the top. If he was infected, he could not find any medicine. It was written in the report.

    The wings of bats carry sharp claws. When the big bats are caught by bat tools, they can easily spray blood. Several times bat blood was sprayed directly on Tians skin, but he didn’t flinch at all. After returning home, Tian Junhua took the initiative to isolate for half a month. As long as the incubation period of 14 days does not occur, he will be lucky to escape, the report said.

    Bat urine and blood can carry viruses. How likely is it that bat urine or blood got onto a researcher at either Wuhan Center for Disease Control & Prevention or the Wuhan Institute of Virology? Alternatively, what are the odds that some sort of medical waste or other material from the bats was not properly disposed of, and that was the initial transmission vector to a human being?

    Virologists have been vehemently skeptical of the theory that COVID-19 was engineered or deliberately constructed in a laboratory; the director of the National Institutes of Health has written that recent genomic research “debunks such claims by providing scientific evidence that this novel coronavirus arose naturally.” And none of the above is definitive proof that COVID-19 originated from a bat at either the Wuhan Center for Disease Control & Prevention or the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Definitive proof would require much broader access to information about what happened in those facilities in the time period before the epidemic in the city.

    But it is a remarkable coincidence that the Wuhan Institute of Virology was researching Ebola and SARS-associated coronaviruses in bats before the pandemic outbreak, and that in the month when Wuhan doctors were treating the first patients of COVID-19, the institute announced in a hiring notice that “a large number of new bat and rodent new viruses have been discovered and identified.” And the fact that the Chinese government spent six weeks insisting that COVID-19 could not be spread from person to person means that its denials about Wuhan laboratories cannot be accepted without independent verification.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 04/04/2020 – 20:20

  • "Medical Supply Arbitrage": How Hordes Of Middle Men, Profiteers & Scammers Massively Inflated Prices Of N95s
    “Medical Supply Arbitrage”: How Hordes Of Middle Men, Profiteers & Scammers Massively Inflated Prices Of N95s

    Americans hear it every day now during Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s press briefings. In the middle of a crushing pandemic, New York and other states are being grossly gouged as they shop around for medical supplies. With most of their regular relationships exhausted, states are competing against each other, a nonsensical and costly “bidding war” that Cuomo has blamed on President Trump.

    N95 masks, which are now among the most prized commodities on the planet, are in such short supply, that some hospitals in NYC simply don’t have them to provide to workers, forcing them to improvise. Cuomo says masks that recently cost just 40 or 50 cents are now being sold for $7 a pop, a roughly 13x markup.

    While the administration’s failure to better prepare for the epidemic certainly hasn’t helped, the New York Times on Friday pointed out another, bigger factor that’s greatly contributed to this problem. Complex globalized supply chains have been disrupted by the outbreak, and with production largely centered in China, producers are effectively using the masks as political chits: Beijing has given them to Italy, and the UK – and even a few to the US.

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    But beyond that, the chaos caused by the outbreak caused such a mad scramble to buy up these supplies, that brokers are selling them at crazy markups, many because they bought them at already-crazy markups, and are now either trying to make a sliver of profit, or just break even. Even wannabe ‘Good Samaritans’ have fallen prey to this cycle, as the dogooders ask simply to be reimbursed for their costs, or just accept that they will lose money, which is hard to do during a time of looming economic catastrophe. At a certain point, it almost becomes difficult to differentiate the scammers from the do-gooders.

    Others are exploiting relationships to act as ‘brokers’, middle-manning N95 masks and other supplies – the masks especially will become even more scarce and costly once the White House and CDC inevitably advise people to wear them in public – for modest profits.

    Rampant crisis profiteering has already been well-documented by the press, as have the efforts by states and the federal government to police it. Earlier this week, AG Barr got up at the White House’s daily press conference and warned that federal prosecutors would be cracking down. And many have been publicly shamed.

    But even as Amazon bans the sale of masks to the general public, next-level ‘brokers’ are using the power of the internet to deal with hospital systems and other health-care providers who have essentially been forced to participate in the shadowy grey market to acquire essential supplies at a time when people’s lives – even the lives of young, healthy people – are very much on the line.

    One of the details that most stood out to us in Friday’s New York Times story was the description of the practice as “medical supply arbitrage.” Here’s how it works, according to NYT:

    Not every new entrant to the market is a good Samaritan. Groups on Facebook, WhatsApp and Telegram are teeming with posts hawking thousands of masks at inflated prices.

    Some are wholesalers who bought pallets of masks from China or in liquidation sales and then marked them up. Many more are simply middlemen who call themselves brokers. They scour the groups for masks advertised for a relatively low price, and then repost the offer for a few thousand dollars more. They don’t handle the masks or put up their own money.

    Yaear Weintroub is one of those brokers. A 22-year-old community college student from Brooklyn, he typically sells wholesale electronics to Amazon sellers. But the online forums he searches for deals became flooded with listings for masks last month, so he now spends his days trying to connect buyers and sellers for a bit of medical-supply arbitrage.

    In a recent interview, he said he was working with a partner to close a deal for 280,000 surgical masks that would increase their price 20 percent and net the pair a roughly $40,000 profit. He said many of the brokers sold to other brokers, each one marking up the price, until the masks presumably make it to a nursing home or a hospital. He said he would prefer to sell directly to hospitals.

    “They’re just more serious,” he said. “So if I have the goods, I want a serious buyer for them. And besides, it’s a morally good reason.”

    To these sellers, medical supplies are simply another hot product to flip for a profit. Avraham Eisenberg, a New York wholesaler who is trying to ship masks from China, compared the rush for masks to the fad several years ago for fidget spinners.

    As prosecutors crack down on re-sellers of medical supplies, the line between what constitutes ‘gouging’ and simple sales of products that aren’t illegal to sell to the general public is becoming more difficult to discern. Barr’s press conference appearance aside, last month, the DoJ said it would investigate people manipulating the medical-supply market. Then, five days later, federal authorities charged a Brooklyn man with lying about price gouging after he tried to sell 1,000 masks and other supplies to a doctor for $12,000 (he was also charged with assault for coughing on one of the agents).

    It might still be legal, but anybody who’s still doing this should watch their backs.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 04/04/2020 – 19:55

  • This Is What COVID-19 Does To Your Body That Makes It So Deadly
    This Is What COVID-19 Does To Your Body That Makes It So Deadly

    Authored by Benjamin Neuman, Professor of Biology, Texas A&M University-Texarkana, via The Conversation,

    COVID-19 is caused by a coronavirus called SARS-CoV-2. Coronaviruses belong to a group of viruses that infect animals, from peacocks to whales. They’re named for the bulb-tipped spikes that project from the virus’s surface and give the appearance of a corona surrounding it.

    A coronavirus infection usually plays out one of two ways: as an infection in the lungs that includes some cases of what people would call the common cold, or as an infection in the gut that causes diarrhea. COVID-19 starts out in the lungs like the common cold coronaviruses, but then causes havoc with the immune system that can lead to long-term lung damage or death.

    SARS-CoV-2 is genetically very similar to other human respiratory coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. However, the subtle genetic differences translate to significant differences in how readily a coronavirus infects people and how it makes them sick.

    SARS-CoV-2 has all the same genetic equipment as the original SARS-CoV, which caused a global outbreak in 2003, but with around 6,000 mutations sprinkled around in the usual places where coronaviruses change. Think whole milk versus skim milk.

    Compared to other human coronaviruses like MERS-CoV, which emerged in the Middle East in 2012, the new virus has customized versions of the same general equipment for invading cells and copying itself. However, SARS-CoV-2 has a totally different set of genes called accessories, which give this new virus a little advantage in specific situations. For example, MERS has a particular protein that shuts down a cell’s ability to sound the alarm about a viral intruder. SARS-CoV-2 has an unrelated gene with an as-yet unknown function in that position in its genome. Think cow milk versus almond milk.

    How the virus infects

    Every coronavirus infection starts with a virus particle, a spherical shell that protects a single long string of genetic material and inserts it into a human cell. The genetic material instructs the cell to make around 30 different parts of the virus, allowing the virus to reproduce. The cells that SARS-CoV-2 prefers to infect have a protein called ACE2 on the outside that is important for regulating blood pressure.

    The infection begins when the long spike proteins that protrude from the virus particle latch on to the cell’s ACE2 protein. From that point, the spike transforms, unfolding and refolding itself using coiled spring-like parts that start out buried at the core of the spike. The reconfigured spike hooks into the cell and crashes the virus particle and cell together. This forms a channel where the string of viral genetic material can snake its way into the unsuspecting cell.

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    An illustration of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein shown from the side (left) and top. The protein latches onto human lung cells. 5-HT2AR/Wikimedia

    SARS-CoV-2 spreads from person to person by close contact. The Shincheonji Church outbreak in South Korea in February provides a good demonstration of how and how quickly SARS-CoV-2 spreads. It seems one or two people with the virus sat face to face very close to uninfected people for several minutes at a time in a crowded room. Within two weeks, several thousand people in the country were infected, and more than half of the infections at that point were attributable to the church. The outbreak got to a fast start because public health authorities were unaware of the potential outbreak and were not testing widely at that stage. Since then, authorities have worked hard and the number of new cases in South Korea has been falling steadily.

    How the virus makes people sick

    SARS-CoV-2 grows in type II lung cells, which secrete a soap-like substance that helps air slip deep into the lungs, and in cells lining the throat.

    As with SARS, most of the damage in COVID-19, the illness caused by the new coronavirus, is caused by the immune system carrying out a scorched earth defense to stop the virus from spreading. Millions of cells from the immune system invade the infected lung tissue and cause massive amounts of damage in the process of cleaning out the virus and any infected cells.

    Each COVID-19 lesion ranges from the size of a grape to the size of a grapefruit. The challenge for health care workers treating patients is to support the body and keep the blood oxygenated while the lung is repairing itself.

    How SARS-CoV-2 infects, sickens and kills people.

    SARS-CoV-2 has a sliding scale of severity. Patients under age 10 seem to clear the virus easily, most people under 40 seem to bounce back quickly, but older people suffer from increasingly severe COVID-19. The ACE2 protein that SARS-CoV-2 uses as a door to enter cells is also important for regulating blood pressure, and it does not do its job when the virus gets there first. This is one reason COVID-19 is more severe in people with high blood pressure.

    SARS-CoV-2 is more severe than seasonal influenza in part because it has many more ways to stop cells from calling out to the immune system for help. For example, one way that cells try to respond to infection is by making interferon, the alarm signaling protein. SARS-CoV-2 blocks this by a combination of camouflage, snipping off protein markers from the cell that serve as distress beacons and finally shredding any anti-viral instructions that the cell makes before they can be used. As a result, COVID-19 can fester for a month, causing a little damage each day, while most people get over a case of the flu in less than a week.

    At present, the transmission rate of SARS-CoV-2 is a little higher than that of the pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza virus, but SARS-CoV-2 is at least 10 times as deadly. From the data that is available now, COVID-19 seems a lot like severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), though it’s less likely than SARS to be severe.

    What isn’t known

    There are still many mysteries about this virus and coronaviruses in general – the nuances of how they cause disease, the way they interact with proteins inside the cell, the structure of the proteins that form new viruses and how some of the basic virus-copying machinery works.

    Another unknown is how COVID-19 will respond to changes in the seasons. The flu tends to follow cold weather, both in the northern and southern hemispheres. Some other human coronaviruses spread at a low level year-round, but then seem to peak in the spring. But nobody really knows for sure why these viruses vary with the seasons.

    What is amazing so far in this outbreak is all the good science that has come out so quickly. The research community learned about structures of the virus spike protein and the ACE2 protein with part of the spike protein attached just a little over a month after the genetic sequence became available. I spent my first 20 or so years working on coronaviruses without the benefit of either. This bodes well for better understanding, preventing and treating COVID-19.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 04/04/2020 – 19:30

  • 350 More COVID-19 Deaths Reported In NYC As US Braces For 'Seven Days Of Hell': Live Updates
    350 More COVID-19 Deaths Reported In NYC As US Braces For ‘Seven Days Of Hell’: Live Updates

    Summary:

    • UK reports more than 700 deaths, mortality rate climbs to record 10.35
    • Germany reports smallest batch of deaths in 2 weeks
    • NYC reports 249 deaths in evening update
    • Spain case numbers pass Italy, after reported lowest deaths in a week yesterday deaths
    • Journalist says more than 800 health-care workers infected in Massachusetts
    • Trump warns “deadliest week” is ahead for US
    • NY reports 10k+ new cases as statewide total nears those of Italy, Spain
    • Italian government agrees on emergency business loan program
    • About 100 more New Jersey residents have died from COVID-19 than on 9/11 as state reports new cases, deaths
    • US cases of COVID-19 near 280k
    • Coral Princess reports 2 deaths, presumably from COVID-19
    • US death toll tops 7k
    • Portugal reported 638 new cases
    • Italy reports another small slowdown in cases, deaths
    • Belgium reported 1,661 new cases and 140 new deaths
    • European death toll tops 45k as France reports ~400 new deaths
    • COVID-19 pateints ‘accidentally’ brought aboard Navy hospital ship ‘overflow hospital’ docked in Manhattan
    • Cuomo authorizes medical students slated to graduate in the spring to start practicing now
    • A looting wave has struck NYC businesses
    • France says 600 soldiers infected
    • UK Health Secretary reminds Britons to stay inside this weekend
    • Pop star Pink test positive
    • India quarantines 20k people connected to Islamic missionary movement
    • Trump uses DPA act to block export of medical equipment
    • Tokyo reports more than 100 cases in a day, largest jump yet, as Japan’s 2nd wave worsens

    *    *    *

    Update (1900ET): NYC reported 349 more deaths since this morning as several hospitals in Manhattan and the outer boroughs report that their ICUs are at, or have breached, max capacity during the deluge of serious cases of the virus.

    Across the city, chaos is unfurling. pharmacies are running out of common drugs (including Tylenol), cleaning supplies and other essential items. Around Manhattan, the National Guard is setting up makeshift morgues and hospitals. Thousands of workers are still forced to pack into crowded subway cars, dangerously violating social distancing policy as they commute to their “essential” jobs (and for many it’s low paid, hourly work).

    Unsurprisingly, some small business owners are starting to get a little frustrated with customers coming in their stores and not respecting social distancing, as most clerks reckon with the reality that they’re practically guaranteed to interact with someone who later tests positive for the virus.

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    As the city and state scramble to make sure hospitals are stocked with supplies and other elements of the response are in place, Fox News reports that several COVID-19 patients were accidentally brought aboard the USNS Comfort, the Navy hospital ship docked at Pier 90 in Manhattan that’s supposed to act as a virus-free ‘overflow’ hospital for NYC patients. The number of patients brought aboard the ship were “fewer than five”, and they didn’t test positive until after they had been brought aboard.

    Though understandable in a time of intense stress while health-care workers are battling a virus that can lay dormant for weeks, the fact that this happened is just another discouraging reminder of how difficult it will be to keep patients from being infected in a medical setting.

    As NYC braces for the peak, the city is still dangerously short on ventilators. As the mayor said in a tweet on Saturday, “our city is facing a dire shortage of ventilators. It is unthinkable to leave a single ventilator in a stockpile or in a warehouse when they could save lives in our hospitals. We need these supplies. We have another difficult week ahead, and our single-minded focus is bringing in the ventilators, hospital beds and health care workers we need to save every life we can.”

    The city is still short on health-care workers and essential equipment. Though they’ve exchanged some congenial words, it seems like President Trump and Andrew Cuomo are still feuding over it.

    If the city doesn’t get the ventilators it needs, and people die who could have easily been saved with the necessary equipment, there will be political hell to pay.

    *    *    *

    Update (1715ET): President Trump reiterated warnings from the last few press briefings (perhaps the administration should start to think about switching the format to a biweekly?) on Saturday, as the administration task force held its latest post-meeting press briefing. Trump warned that the US should brace for the “toughest week”, which Trump said is expected to transpire of the next 7 days as the outbreak ‘peaks’ in the US.

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    The seven-day figure was also used by Gov. Cuomo earlier. Speaking of Cuomo, Trump insisted that he’s working with the governor to make sure the state has all the supplies it needs before more hospitals in NYC are overwhelmed.

    • TRUMP SAYS THERE WILL BE A LOT OF DEATH, THESE NEXT TWO WEEKS WILL BE THE TOUGHEST
    • TRUMP SAYS LARGE NUMBER OF NATIONAL GUARD TO ASSIST
    • TRUMP: SOME AREAS NOT HARD HIT MAKING INFLATED SUPPLY REQUESTS
    • TRUMP SAYS HE SPOKE WITH CUOMO, WORKING TO GET SUPPLIES TO N.Y.

    If you’re interested in watching a replay of the briefing, you can check it out here.

    *    *    *

    Update (1450ET): Italy’s Civil Protection Agency reported another modest drop in new deaths and cases across Italy as the country’s hospitals reported the first drop in COVID-19 ICU patients since the outbreak started.

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    The agency reported 681 new deaths, bringing Italy’s death toll to 15,362, while the number of confirmed cases climbed by roughly 5k to 124,632.

    That’s a modest slowdown, as we said above.

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    *   *   *

    Update (1400ET): New Jersey just reported its latest figures for deaths and new cases in state, with 200 new deaths bringing its total to 846. That’s about 100 more New Jersey residents than died during the 9/11 attacks.

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    Meanwhile, France just released its latest numbers, and reported more than 400 new deaths, bringing the nationwide total to 7,560.

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    In some non-coronavirus news, a town in southeastern France suffered what appears to be a terror attack carried out by an asylum seeker.

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    The new deaths in France brought the virus death toll in Europe north of 45k.

    Two people on the Coral Princess cruise ship died overnight, after the ship reported 12 positive cases of coronavirus on Thursday, according to an announcement from the ship’s captain, who said the ship likely wouldn’t arrive in South Florida on Saturday as planned, but would rather make landfall on Sunday.

    The captain didn’t say whether the deceased had tested positive for the virus, but he confirmed they were treated in the ship’s medical center.

    The ship is carrying 1,898 people, including 1,020 guests. It left San Antonio, Chile, on March 5.

    *   *   *

    Update (1255ET): With the pace of new COVID-19 infections finally slowing in Europe, officials in the US, including New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, the peak still remains weeks away. At least that’s what New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Saturday after providing the latest update on the outbreak in New York.

    As National Guard troops set up a temporary morgue across from the medical examiner’s office in Manhattan, Cuomo warned that while nobody knows the number “at the top of the mountain”, experts expect that the number of new cases could peak “in the seven-day range,” he said. Unfortunately, Cuomo added, his state – the hardest hit in the US – remains short of vital equipment, most importantly ventilators, needed to fight it.

    “Nobody can tell you the number at the top of the mountain,” Mr. Cuomo said, but estimated that it would be “in the seven-day range.” He said the state was not yet prepared for that point.

    “It feels like an entire lifetime,” he said. “I think we all feel the same, these stresses, this country, this state – like nothing I’ve experienced in my lifetime.”

    On Saturday, New York State reported 10,841 new coronavirus cases and 630 new deaths for Friday, bringing the number of total cases to 113,704, just shy of the countrywide figures for Italy and Spain, with 3,565 dead.

    At the same time, Cuomo urged residents not to lose hope: “This is a painful, disorienting experience,” he said. “But we find our best self, our strongest self – this day will end. We will get through it, we will get to the other side of the mountain. But we have to do what we have to do between now and then.”

    He also offered some more optimistic figures: The rate of hospitalizations in the state has slowed, as the number of patients currently hospitalized increased by just 7% since Friday to 15,905 at the latest count, the smallest jump in at least two weeks. Of those, 4,126 were in intensive care. On average, the number of COVID-19 hospitalizations rose by just 27 a day during the week ended on March 28. So far, two-thirds of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 have been discharged, Cuomo said. After earlier allowing retired nurses and doctors with expired licenses, as well as practitioners from other states, to practice in the state, Cuomo said Saturday he would sign an executive order allowing med students slated to graduate in the spring to start practicing now.

    The governor has warned that the state will need 30K ventilators before the peak arrives. It’s unclear how many they have on hand right now: Cuomo is storing a stockpile in a state warehouse and has promised to dole them out to hospitals as they are needed, while he continues to beg Trump for more from the federal stockpile (if there are any available, which he said yesterday he believes there aren’t).

    Fortunately, China and the State of Oregon have offered ventilators, because the Ford’s decision to team up with GE to produce ventilators will help, but those machines will almost certainly arrive too late to treat those seriously sickened during the peak of the outbreak in New York State.

    In NYC meanwhile, businesses are being hit by a wave of looting after the mayor let out hundreds of “nonviolent” criminals from Rikers.

    *   *   *

    As the scramble for ventilators & PPE continues across the country, President Trump last night finally invoked the DPA to ban “unscrupulous actors and profiteers” (an apparent reference to 3M, the pillar of American manufacturing that has become embroiled in a feud with the administration in the middle of an unprecedented pandemic) from exporting critical medical gear used to protect wearers from the coronavirus. Unfortunately, that won’t do anything to increase the availability of badly needed ventilators as hospitals in NYC discover that an alarming number of ICU patients require ventilators. If the number of critical patients starts to overwhelm ICUs, without enough ventilators on hand, nurses and doctors will effectively be deciding who lives and who effectively suffocates to death on their own fluids.

    The issue of health-care workers becoming infected has become a major problem in the UK, and was infamously a huge problem in Wuhan during the early days of the epidemic (who can forget the martyrdom of Dr. Li Wenliang?). But now, it looks like it’s becoming a growing problem in the US: More than 850 hospital employees in Massachusetts have tested positive for COVID-19, according to a tally being kept by one journalist.

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    All of this comes as the number of cases confirmed in the US nears 280k, more than the next two countries (Spain + Italy) combined.

    Meanwhile, the number of confirmed deaths in the US topped 7k (it was 7,134 at last count, to be exact)…

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    On Friday evening, England’s chief nursing officer Ruth May paid tribute to two nurses, Areema Nasreen and Aimee O’Rourke, who succumbed to COVID-19 after catching it on the job. They were “part of our NHS family,” May said.

    “They were one of us, they were one of my profession, of the NHS family,” said Ms May. “I worry that there’s going to be more and I want to honour them today and recognise their service.”

    May urged Britons to resist the temptation to go out and party during the expected beautiful weather this weekend. “But please, I ask to remember Aimee and Areema. Please stay at home for them,” she according to the BBC.

    Last night, the chair of the surgery department at New York Presbyterian’s Columbia University Irving Medical Center said 98% of ICU patients required ventilators.

    During a Friday morning interview on CNBC, 3M CEO Mike Roman said it was “absurd” to suggest his company wasn’t doing all it could to help the U.S. fight the pandemic, and that by banning export of critical gear, it could make it more difficult to acquire these products in the US as more companies start hoarding and banning export in response.

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    But perhaps the biggest news overnight came out of the UK, where the Department of Health reported the biggest jump in deaths yet. The DoH said early Saturday that 708 patients had died across the UK on Friday, bringing the nationwide death toll to 4,313. Meanwhile, the 3,735 new cases of COVID-19 reported brought the UK’s total above 40k to 41,903 . The drop in new cases combined with the jump in new deaths brought the UK’s mortality rate to an all-time high of 10.3%.

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    Put another way:

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    Meanwhile, with London looking eerily empty as citizens finally obey the lockdown, Health Secretary Matt Hancock reminded the country on Saturday that the order for Britons to stay indoors this weekend was “not a request.”

    As deaths in the UK climbed, Germany reported its smallest batch of deaths in two weeks. Health officials recorded 6,082 new coronavirus cases over the past 24 hours in Germany, bringing its total to 85,778, while the number of deaths rose by just 141 to 1,158, only a 14% jump, according to the Robert Koch Institute.

    Outside Europe, perhaps the most startling numbers reported overnight was another jump in confirmed cases in Tokyo: More than 110 new cases of coronavirus were confirmed, the largest daily jump since the outbreak began, a record that has been broken over and over these last two weeks.

    In India, more than 20,000 people linked to Islamic missionary movement Tablighi Jamaat or having had recent ‘contacts’ with its members have been quarantined as authorities struggle to stay well “ahead of the curve” to prevent uncontrollable outbreaks across the world’s second-largest country, and one that’s pockmarked with pockets of densely populated slums, per the FT.

    We suspect the decision will be cited as yet another example of the Modi government’s unkind treatment of the country’s Muslim minority.

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    In Italy and Spain, officials reported another promising decline in new cases, suggesting that the lockdowns imposed by both countries are finally working. However, as the number of confirmed cases in Spain surpassed the number of total cases in Italy, the government of PM Pedro Sanchez ordered a two-week extension of Spain’s mandatory lockdown.

    More than 20,000 people linked to Islamic missionary movement Tablighi Jamaat and their contacts have been quarantined in India as authorities work to contain COVID-19.

    “I understand it’s difficult to extend the effort and sacrifice two more weeks,” Sanchez said in a televised speech on Saturday. “These are very difficult days for everyone.” At this point, a longer lockdown would need the approval of Spain’s cabinet and congress.

    The number of confirmed cases climbed by 7,026 over the last day to 124,736, according to the Health Ministry. Deaths rose by 809 to 11,744. That 809 number was the actually the lowest number of deaths in a week.

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    Despite Spain officially moving into the No. 2 spot in terms of total confirmed cases (right behind the US at No. 1, though China likely saw the largest number of cases, as possibly hundreds of thousands went uncounted). Spanish Health Minister Salvador Illa said on Friday that the goal of slowing the epidemic was “within reach,” as Spain’s government has imposed some of the most restrictive lockdown measures in Europe.

    In Italy, Parliament and the ruling government approved an additional €200 billion ($216 billion) of emergency loans for businesses, according to the local press. It said the moves, part of a new aid decree, will be approved by Monday and will let companies seek state-backed bank loans for as much as 25% of their revenue (with, we suspect, a generous handout to Italy’s struggling banks).

    Meanwhile, the number of cases, at 119,827, with the number of deaths at 14,681.

    Meanwhile, Portugal reported 638 new cases of coronavirus and 20 new deaths, bringing it to a total of 10,524 cases and 266 deaths. Belgium reported 1,661 new cases and 140 new deaths, bringing it to a total of 18,431 cases and 1,283 deaths.

    As Joe Biden and dozens of Democrats bash the administration for the abrupt firing of Capt. Brett Crozier, who circumvented the chain of command to insist that his sailors be saved from an inevitable outbreak onboard his ship, the American military is learning that it isn’t alone. After bringing several infected soldiers from abroad, the French Army Minister said that around 600 French soldiers have now tested positive for the virus.

    The problem of active military troops being infected is vexing the US military, as it bases around the world cut off exercises with local military forces and limit training and exercises for US troops as well. Navy officials fear the virus might already have found its way aboard other Navy vessels. Widespread infection could quickly become a massive headache for the US military, since once the virus enters a ship, it’s bound to spread, given that social distancing in that environment is virtually impossible.

    In the US, pop singer Pink announced late Friday that she had tested positive for COVID-19.

    Meanwhile, with markets closed, investors will still be keeping a close eye out for any progress in the US’s $2.2 trillion stimulus, as well as any news about the ‘Part 4’ deal that’s purportedly being worked out.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 04/04/2020 – 19:06

  • Outrage After COVID-19 Test-Scammers Set Up Pop-Up Tents In Louisville
    Outrage After COVID-19 Test-Scammers Set Up Pop-Up Tents In Louisville

    Unbelievable as it sounds at a moment local and state police are in many instances imposing draconian measures limiting citizens’ movement across state borders, and in some instances fining them for not wearing virus protective face gear, as well as ticketing small businesses for alleged price gouging, this one has slipped past authorities, apparently

    Kentucky officials are warning residents of fake coronavirus testing sites in the Louisville area, according to the Louisville Courier-Journal.

    Medical marketing companies offering coronavirus tests, including one that promises results in 24 hours, have charged people up to $250 per test.

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    We should also note this seems an incredibly dangerous threat to public safety, given scammers posing as medical professionals administering ‘fake COVID-19 tests’ on people showing up with symptoms itself increases the likelihood of local spread.

    No doubt the scammers are not at all following safe health protocol like changing over gloves and strict sanitization procedures, so the presumed ‘test’ itself could spread the virus.

    “Metro Council President David James and several local advocates have been hunting down a group they say are fake COVID-19 testers,” local media reports say further of the group, which has been in the state before conducting similar medical-related scams. “So far, James said the scammers have set up pop-up drive-thru testing tents at Wayside Christian Mission, Sojourn Church and at Broadway and 17th Street.”

    “It’s a scam,” James said. “They couldn’t even spell HIPAA right on their name tags!” He further said of the health risks posed by the unique new con

    “They would test somebody and use the same gloves they used on the person before. They get your $240 dollars plus they can turn in fake Medicaid claims.”

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    Some states have begun issuing warnings against fraudulent test sites, such as Indiana which also recently saw some examples. Kentucky and others have begun requiring that test sites and labs be approved to work with the state.

    The Louisville Courier Journal reported of growing public outrage regarding the increase in unapproved ‘pop-up testing sites’:

    A spokeswoman for Mayor Greg Fischer’s office said that the city has received calls about multiple pop-up testing sites and that police are investigating for “further review and possible action.”

    “At this time, we are advising residents experiencing symptoms to seek COVID-19 testing from hospitals, health care providers or government resources,” Louisville city spokeswoman Jessica Wethington said after the fraudulent activity was exposed.

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    Screengrab of local footage of fake testing site, via Louisville Courier Journal.

    And one local advocate, Tara Bassett, who’s been investigative the group said they’d been run out of town on prior occasions.

    “They showed up again in late February, early March and I actually ambushed interviewed one of the guys that’s still on this team,” Bassett said. “They’re the scum of the earth and they’re preying on the poorest of the poor and I’m going to do everything in my power to get them the hell out of Kentucky.”


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 04/04/2020 – 19:05

  • What Will The Future Bring? Here's How To Survive The Uncertainty
    What Will The Future Bring? Here’s How To Survive The Uncertainty

    Authored by Daisy Luther via The Organic Prepper blog,

    We live in a very different world than we did back in January when the calendar turned to 2020 and everyone was anticipating the great things they’d accomplish in the brand new decade.

    Only 3 months ago, we all had futures we imagined…

    • Kids graduating from high school or college

    • A vacation we were planning

    • A new job we were striving toward

    • Retirement so close you could practically smell the beach where you’d spend your golden years

    • The health and fitness goal you were finally going to achieve

    • A positive lifestyle change you were planning to make

    • A relocation to a new destination

    • The advancement of your relationship, whether it was a new one or one you’d been in for a while

    • A summer road trip

    • Getting a new pet

    • An empty nest and what you were going to do with that newly vacant bedroom

    • A new family member

    Three months ago, we all had dreams, goals for the future, or at least some idea of what the upcoming year would hold for us.

    I’ll bet none of us even considered on New Year’s Eve that we’d spend the first half (at least) of the year dealing with a deadly pandemic. Heck, I sat on a balcony in a little seaside village in Montenegro, toasting the new decade with a friend and some Jack Daniels, watching fireworks over the Adriatic Sea, and planning what European destination I’d be heading to next.

    It probably never crossed anyone’s mind that there’d be some crazy new virus that nobody had ever heard of which would leave us under the equivalent of house arrest for months. Few of us imagined that suddenly, over the course of just a few weeks, more than ten million Americans would suddenly become unemployed.

    Dreams have been shattered.

    Goals have been put aside.

    Lives have been lost.

    Everything has changed.

    And nobody knows what the future will hold.

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    A lot of the things we do know are horrible.

    How utterly terrifying to know that we’re all likely to lose somebody we love to this virus or to a medical condition that would have been survivable if the local hospital hadn’t been overflowing with COVID patients.

    We know there’s nary a roll of toilet paper to be found in a huge swath of the United States. We know that our supply chain, if not broken, is at the least, badly bruised. We know that if a person we love goes into the hospital with COVID-19, there’s a frighteningly large chance they may never come out again unless it’s in a body bag. We know that medical professionals in New York City don’t even have personal protective equipment to keep themselves healthy while they try to keep people alive. We know that yesterday in the state of New York, 23 people died every hour of the day from the coronavirus that has destroyed the world as we know it.

    We nearly all know people who have been laid off. Maybe it’s someone in your family. Maybe it’s you. And if you haven’t yet lost your job, are you waiting for that hammer to drop? We all know of businesses that aren’t going to make it through months of this shutdown.

    We know people who couldn’t pay their rent this month. We know people who pulled it together this month but won’t be able to pay May’s rent if this lockdown should continue. We know it’s so bad that the government has said landlords can’t evict tenants in many states – which means the landlords may not be able to pay their mortgages.

    We may not know much right now, but we know that the economy is a f*cking disaster.

    And we have no idea when this current purgatory will end.

    The uncertainty is one of the hardest parts.

    The advent of COVID-19 has changed our lives so much that none of us has any idea what the future will bring. Whereas before we’d be thinking about our summer plans, perhaps a holiday at the beach or a camp for the kids, now we don’t know if we’ll even be able to leave our homes by the time summer rolls around.

    How absolutely bizarre to have no idea what our worlds will look like in 3 months.

    My family, so far, is blessedly healthy, a fact for which I give thanks every day. But it’s become difficult to think of much beyond that. We don’t know if my one daughter’s plan to relocate to another state for an opportunity will still be available. We don’t know if my other daughter’s workplace will reopen. I don’t know if I’ll ever be able to head back to Europe and continue my long-awaited trip around the world.

    When the lease is up at my daughter’s apartment, we don’t know where we’ll go because we don’t know what the world will look like then. Will we need to tap into those homesteading skills we learned back in California? If so, we sure can’t do it from where we live right now. Where will we go?

    Will running a business online still even be a possibility at the end of this? Everything…every single thing…is in question.

    All of us have some variation of these same questions running through our heads right now. It’s pretty hard to plan when you don’t know if the post-COVID world is going to look more like Mad Max, The Walking Dead, or Little House on the Prairie. Or maybe it’ll be a lot like the pre-COVID world, only with more money problems.

    It’s hard to figure out your plan when you have no idea what post-apocalyptic world you’re going to end up in. So how do you keep from going nuts? How do you find some peace in a world with so much uncertainty?

    How to survive in a world of uncertainty

    The word “survive” may sound melodramatic, but for a lot of people who are finding themselves living with broken dreams, for those who have vulnerable loved ones, for those living with sudden financial uncertainty, and for those who are sacrificing time and contact with loved ones due to their own exposure to the virus, it fits the bill right now. No, we may not die from this but when your peace of mind suffers, it can be a real struggle.

    Below are some ideas that may help you to get through this if you’re struggling.

    Make plans every day. While you can’t really make plans for 6 months down the road, you can make plans for the day or even the week. Create a schedule for yourself. Don’t just lay there on the sofa watching Netflix and Amazon Prime all day long. It’s not good for you. Get up and get dressed (not necessarily office-dressed but don’t wear the same thing to live in and sleep in for three days in a row.) Figure out what nutrient-rich meals you’re going to make that day. Think about how you’ll exercise – will it be a walk with the dogs around the neighborhood or will you go to a nearby hiking trail? What work do you need to get accomplished? What room are you going to deep clean? Write it all down on a whiteboard or a piece of paper on the fridge so everybody knows what’s on the day’s agenda.

    Don’t lay around watching television all day. Set yourself a time at which you’ll watch a movie or show online. I’ve worked from home for years, and one rule I’ve held for myself throughout it is that we don’t turn on Netflix until it’s getting dark.  That means in the summer, it’s later because we can spend time doing things outdoors during the nice weather. With us being home all the time now, I’ve relaxed that rule slightly to 6 pm. But if you start watching while you have lunch it’s way to easy to get sucked into a series and the next thing you know, it’s bedtime and you never accomplished anything. This isn’t healthy mentally or physically so I strongly advise that if you are a television viewer or a person who likes to stream shows you limit this to evenings.

    Prepare for what you can. We all know that we need to prep with the basics of food, water, seeds, tools, and the like. This doesn’t really change, regardless of what the future holds. So keep doing what you can to build up supplies and skills. A lot of things are out of our hands but you can control what is within your power.

    Don’t consume a constant diet of bad news. I spend a lot of time researching this virus, the effects on our economy, how it has decimated other parts of the world, reading the heartbreaking stories of loss. I’ve been doing this since January 20th, when it first really appeared on my radar. I do not advise it to anyone. It can be hard to see the light when you spend your time delving into the darkness. I’ve been doing this for years and can compartmentalize to some degree, but this has been a long haul. Limit the amount of time you spend reading about this outbreak and the difficulties surrounding it. Unless your job depends on you knowing every detail about COVID-19 and it’s effect on the world, you can stay informed reading about it for 30 minutes a day instead of 6 hours a day. Trust me when I say this: your outlook will become much brighter when your day is not filled by press conferences, the follies of incompetent government officials, and stories of suffering.

    Enjoy making healthful, home-cooked meals. Remember all those times you said you didn’t have time to cook? Now, if you’re currently out of work, you finally have time to cook. Don’t just heat up frozen pizza after frozen pizza! Get in that kitchen and whip up all those tasty delights you’ve wanted to make for years. Learn to bake bread if you don’t know how to do so. Cook things that take half a day to prepare. Make every tiny detail from scratch. Set the table with the nice china and give your food the showcase it deserves.

    Work on some projects you never had time to do before. What projects have you always put off because you didn’t have the time? We’re currently converting a storage room in my daughter’s small apartment into a second bedroom since it looks like I’m going to be here for a while. We’ve been going through the boxes of our past and enjoying the walk down memory lane. I’m finally getting all this stuff into scrapbooks. We’re devising clever storage methods and purging things we don’t need. Soon we’ll have an adorable tiny room off the laundry room for some much needed extra space. After that, we’re building some shelves with curtains in front of them for the kitchen to put away our canned and boxed goods, hidden from prying eyes. We also each have some craft projects on the go for entertainment because productive hobbies are always a great idea.

    Spend time outdoors. If your municipality allows it, spend some time outdoors. You can still be socially distant while getting fresh air. Avoid the clusters of humans and walk the challenging trails at your local hiking place. Or go early in the day while everybody else is still sleeping in. Getting some fresh air, exercise, and sunshine is healthy for both your body and your mind. If you can’t go out for a walk, at the very least, sit on your balcony or patio and read for a while.

    Find something to be thankful for as often as possible. An attitude of gratitude makes tough times easier to stomach. Even now, there are things for which we can be grateful. I am spending time with my daughter and talking regularly on the phone to my other daughter. I am enjoying the blossoming of the spring flowers – always a favorite time of year for me. I am grateful that for now, I still have work online. I’m grateful my daughter is no longer working in retail during this outbreak and that she’s safely home. I’m grateful I have the time to cook delicious meals, experience my daughter’s cooking (she’s really good at it), and spend some bonus time with her. We have two dogs to walk and two cats to cuddle. Life could be much, much worse so take a moment to appreciate what you have right now.

    Find something to anticipate. As we talked about before, we live in a period of extreme uncertainty. But that doesn’t mean you can’t find anything to anticipate. I’m looking forward to the new room we’re setting up this week. I’m looking forward to a movie we plan to watch this weekend when all our tasks are done. I’m even looking forward to organizing the kitchen because that will be such a satisfying task. I also have a book on Kindle I plan to read on my birthday that is coming up. I noticed that daffodils are poking their heads through in the front yard and I can’t wait to see how the place looks when there are sunny yellow flowers everywhere. My homesteader friends back in California are filling my social media feeds with baby goats and baby chicks and I’m counting down the days until a friend’s baby is born.

    Sure, these things are short term, and some of them aren’t even my things, but right now, the short term is all we have. Take the joy that’s there. Find things that will occur within the week and don’t look too far in advance.

    Stop focusing on things going back to “normal.”

    We’d all like to think that one day this will suddenly be over. The kids will return to school. We’ll go back to our offices and our commutes. We won’t be struggling over money anymore. Life will return to the pre-COVID days.

    But is this the healthiest way to look at the situation?

    Spending all your time looking forward to the day when this is over is an exercise in frustration because nobody knows when that will be. And more than that, nobody knows what “normal” is going to look like when all the lockdowns are over. A lot of things will never be the same.

    You can help yourself by learning to adapt now to changed circumstances. This will help you learn to live with the new normal, whatever that turns out to be. Major events are bound to cause major and long-lasting changes. This has happened throughout history.

    In reality, the things we’re experiencing right now, while not necessarily easy, aren’t so bad. Things will probably get worse before they get better, but eventually, some form of “better” will come.

    Your ability to adapt is indicative of your ability to survive. So let’s get through this lockdown and keep our mindsets positive.  Let’s get through the part that comes next.

    Then, eventually, we’ll come out on the other side, ready to tackle the new normal, whatever that ends up being like.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 04/04/2020 – 18:45

  • "Don't Disrupt The Supply Chain": The 9 States Still Resisting Stay-At-Home Orders 
    “Don’t Disrupt The Supply Chain”: The 9 States Still Resisting Stay-At-Home Orders 

    Dr. Anthony Fauci has been talking up a federal-imposed nationwide ‘stay at home’ order, though many might challenge the very legality or possibility that Washington would even have the power to impose it on states. Thus far Trump has resisted such a move, preferring to leave these questions to the governors.

    Fauci told CNN’s Anderson Cooper at the end of this week of a federal order, “I don’t understand why that’s not happening.” He said, “If you look at what’s going on in this country, I just don’t understand why we’re not doing that. We really should be.”

    Meanwhile much of the mainstream media has directed its ire at the last “hold-out” states which have “dragged their feet” on the issue. Many governors have expressed that they don’t see the need to take such a drastic step that could decimate their local economies, leaving social distancing to the ‘good judgments’ of counties, towns, and individuals.

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    Via The New York Times

    For example CNN has headlined its story: “Why these 8 Republican governors are holding out on statewide stay-at-home orders?”

    The nine states that have resisted shutting everything down are Arkansas, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah and Wyoming

    Gov. Kim Reynolds of Iowa expressed this during a recent press conference, saying:

    “What else are we doing by doing a shelter-in-place or stay-at-home order except for potentially disrupting the supply chain, putting additional pressure on the essential workforce, and making sure that we are considering how we bring that back up?”

    In some instances like Iowa, schools and ‘non-essential’ businesses have been closed, while a state-wide ‘one size fits all’ approach has been resisted. Oklahoma has also come practically close to a stay at home order, without actually issuing the formal directive. 

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    Map & data via The Guardian/Johns Hopkins CSSE

    Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts also affirmed it should be a local and regional matter. He was cited in ABC News as saying, “We’re a different state than states like New York that are doing that. We are much earlier in the epidemic curve than New York.”

    By the New York Times’ numbers, some 311 million people have been urged to stay home in at least 41 states:

    In a matter of days, millions of Americans have been asked to do what might have been unthinkable only a month ago: Don’t go to work, don’t go to school, don’t leave the house at all, unless you have to.

    The directives to keep people at home, which began in California in mid-March, have quickly swept the nation.

    On Friday, Alabama and Missouri became the latest states to issue such orders. A significant majority of states, the Navajo Nation and many cities and counties have now instructed residents to stay at home in a desperate race to stunt the spread of the coronavirus.

    This means at least 311 million people in at least 41 states, three counties, eight cities, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico are being urged to stay home.

    Governors have said they’ve “agonized” over the decision, given the economic effects among the earliest states to give the directive were felt immediately.

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    Ohio for example just days after its governor essentially shut down the state, saw an immediate 600% rise in unemployment filings, with that figure climbing steadily since.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 04/04/2020 – 18:25

  • Police App Encourages People To Report Neighbors Who Violate Stay-At-Home Orders
    Police App Encourages People To Report Neighbors Who Violate Stay-At-Home Orders

    Via MassPrivateI blog,

    How do you encourage people to turn against each other during the COVID-19 pandemic?

    The answer is not that complicated, especially if you live in the City of Bellevue, Washington.

    Four years ago, when the city created the MyBellvue app, it was touted as being a quick and easy way to report things like downed street signs, potholes, street light issues and noise complaints.

    Fast forward to 2020 and public fears of COVID-19 have encouraged law enforcement to turn neighbors into government snitches.

    Geekwire revealed how the Bellevue Police Department has turned a public service app into a report on your neighbors app.  You can report these incidents through the MyBellevue app on your electronic device or the MyBellevue portal.

    “Police in Bellevue, Wash., are asking residents to report violations of the state’s “stay home” order online in an effort to clear up 911 lines for emergencies.”

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    A recent Associated Press article revealed that people are all to happy to report on their neighbors.

    “Snitches are emerging as enthusiastic allies as cities, states and countries work to enforce directives meant to limit person-to-person contact amid the virus pandemic that has claimed tens of thousands of lives worldwide. They’re phoning police and municipal hotlines, complaining to elected officials and shaming perceived scofflaws on social media.”

    LA Mayor Offers Snitches Rewards For Reporting On Neighbors

    According to a CBS LA4 article Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti announced that the city would reward snitches.

    Four businesses have been referred to the city attorney’s office for misdemeanor filings.

    “You know the old expression about snitches, well in this case snitches get rewards,” Garcetti said. “We want to thank you for turning folks in and making sure we are all safe.”

    When law enforcement encourages Americans to turn against each other we all lose. We become a nation controlled by fear.

    “Suspected violations are tracked in the MyBellevue app and generate a heat map that shows where gatherings have been reported. The map shows hot spots of activity throughout the City of Bellevue, which is about 10 miles from Seattle.

    The Bellevue Police Departments’ MyBellevue page claims police need the public’s help monitoring their neighbors.

    “The vast majority of people in our community are following the “Stay Home” order and are being safe,” said Chief Steve Mylett. “But we need your help in reporting violations where there may be a large amount of people at risk.” 

    The MyBellevue customer assistance portal spells out exactly what this is app is really meant for now.

    • Report Gatherings: You may report gatherings here in violation of the State mandate to “Stay Home”

    • Contact Your Police Sector Captain: Got an issue affecting your neighborhood? Contact the sector captain for your area! A captain is assigned to each of three geographical sectors — North, South and West — and is ultimately responsible for issues taking place in their sector. 

    When city services apps get turned into a glorified version of DHS’s “If See Something, Say Something” we all lose. As Geekwire notes,

    “Sometimes there is a need to implement extreme measures but often these crises are used as justification to implement surveillance and data collection measures for purposes beyond that crisis,” the ACLU of Washington’s Jennifer Lee said.

    Reporting on your neighbor apps fly in the face of the freedoms Americans have enjoyed for centuries.

    The MyBellevue mobile app can be found at the Apple store and Google Play store. Two recent reviews spell out how everyone should view apps that encourage Americans to report on each other.

    Leo Rosas said, 

    start sarcasm “Yes daddy, step on me harder, oh yes take my constitutionally protected rights away!* end. YOU SOULD BE ASHAMED OF YOURSELVES! tell on your neighbors for leaving their house is BS you have no clue where they are going or for what. Since no crime has been committed in traveling, the police have no right to know where you go or why. There is no right to Abridge constitutionally protected free travel! Y’all were sworn to protect and uphold the constitution, covid doesn’t change that.”

    Matthew Harphan said,

    “I bet Hitler is rolling in his grave, super Jealous of your app used to violate civil rights through unconstitutional enforcement during Corona virus. You swore an Oath to Uphold and Defend the Constitution.. this is pathetic. I expect better from police. Despicable”

    Now is the time to fight for our freedoms before a panicked nation willingly gives them away.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 04/04/2020 – 18:05

  • UN Blasted As "Absurd & Immoral" For Appointing China To Key UN Human Rights Panel
    UN Blasted As “Absurd & Immoral” For Appointing China To Key UN Human Rights Panel

    In what will no doubt be taken as a direct shot across the Trump administration’s bow, China has been appointed to a key United Nations human rights post. 

    Fox reports on Saturday: “China has been appointed to a panel on the controversial U.N. Human Rights Council, where it will help vet candidates for important posts — despite its decades-long record of systematic human rights abuse that the U.S. has said fueled the coronavirus pandemic.”

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    UN file image

    The timing couldn’t be worse, given the soaring tensions and weeks-long war of words between US and Chinese officials, both floating bombastic charges against the other of intentionally spreading COVID-19. 

    President Trump has even taken to calling the deadly virus the “Chinese virus” – given as he said last month: “It could have been contained to that one area in China where it started.” He followed at the time by saying of China “certainly the world is paying a big price for what they did.”

    Jiang Duan, minister at the Chinese Mission in Geneva, will represent Beijing on the U.N. Human Rights Council’s Consultative Group, alongside four other international representatives. 

    A Geneva-based human rights watchdog called UN Watch, meanwhile, slammed the development as “absurd and immoral” for the UN to allow China to have a hand in selecting human rights officials for the top body.

    “Allowing China’s oppressive and inhumane regime to choose the world investigators on freedom of speech, arbitrary detention and enforced disappearances is like making a pyromaniac into the town fire chief,” UN Watch said in a statement, according to FOX.

    The Human Rights Council, itself long subject of controversy – especially after the Saudis recently occupied a top spot on the bloc – examines freedom of speech, war crimes, and disappeared persons issues around the world.

    The central irony is that China – itself long documented to have an extensive ‘political prison’ system and with more recent charges of “disappearing” doctors and scientists who have tried to blow the whistle over its COVID-19 response – will now have a key role in selecting the top human rights body’s make-up.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 04/04/2020 – 17:45

  • 2 Passengers Die Aboard "Coral Princess" Cruise Ship Amid Another COVID-19 "Nightmare At Sea"
    2 Passengers Die Aboard “Coral Princess” Cruise Ship Amid Another COVID-19 “Nightmare At Sea”

    Two people on the Coral Princess cruise ship died overnight, after the ship reported 12 positive cases of coronavirus on Thursday, according to an announcement from the ship’s captain, who said the ship likely wouldn’t arrive in South Florida on Saturday as planned, but would rather make landfall on Sunday.

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    The captain didn’t say whether the deceased had tested positive for the virus, but he confirmed they were treated in the ship’s medical center.

    “I know how difficult this news is to bear, but given the current situation, we remain committed to transparent and consistent communication with you,” he said. “This information will need to be shared with shoreside authorities and will become public, so I wanted you to hear it from me first,” the Captain said, according to a recording of the announcement provided to the Washington Post.

    Appearing to follow a similar playbook to the Zaandam – another Carnival-subsidiary-owned cruise ship that docked along with another ship in Port Everglades this week after several passengers and crew had died of the virus, and the ship had been refused entry to several ports – Princess Cruises said guests who are deemed “fit to fly” are expected to start disembarking Sunday and will transfer straight to Miami International Airport to catch flights home. Meanwhile, anyone with respiratory symptoms who is not too sick to require immediate hospitalization, or who is recovering from being sick previously, will stay on the ship until they are cleared by doctors on board.

    The ship is carrying 1,898 people, including 1,020 guests. It left San Antonio, Chile, on March 5, a week before the cruise line announced it would suspend operations after the debacle with the “Diamon Princess”, which became host to what was at the time the biggest outbreak outside mainland China after it docked in Yokohama.

    At least 12 infected individuals who traveled aboard the “Diamond Princess” eventually died from their infections.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 04/04/2020 – 17:25

  • Half A Million Chinese People Entered America At The Height Of The COVID-19 Outbreak
    Half A Million Chinese People Entered America At The Height Of The COVID-19 Outbreak

    Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

    Around half a million Chinese people, some of them infected with coronavirus, entered America from December to February at the height of the COVID-19 outbreak, new figures show.

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    The numbers, which were obtained from Commerce Department and U.S. Customs and Border Protection records, were compiled by ABC News.

    They show that in the three month period when coronavirus was raging across China, 759,493 people entered the U.S. from China.

    This number included 228,000 Americans who were returning home, meaning that roughly half a million were Chinese citizens or people living in China who were visiting the U.S. for tourism, business or to see family.

    This number of people were pouring into the U.S. while the World Health Organization was simultaneously insisting that no country should enforce any kind of border controls to stop the spread of the virus.

    President Donald Trump restricted travel from China from February 2nd onwards, but that was too little too late because the outbreak (which was subsequently covered up by China for two months) had started in Wuhan in November, according to Johns Hopkins University.

    According to Dr. Vinayak Kumar, an internal medicine resident at the Mayo Clinic, out of the total figure arriving in the U.S. from China, “a large number might have been infected at the time of travel.”

    The numbers illustrate “how globalized our world has become,” he added.

    However, infectious disease specialist Dr. Simone Wildes suggested that the virus outbreak was the price of globalization and that Americans would just have to get used to it.

    “It shows that globalization is here, and we have to be better prepared to deal with the impact this will have on all our lives in so many ways,” he said.

    The data also shows that “From December, January and February on travelers entering the U.S. from eight of the hardest-hit countries: 343,402 arrived from Italy, 418,848 from Spain and about 1.9 million more came from Britain.”

    As we document in the video below, while three quarters of a million people, some of them infected with coronavirus, were entering America, political leaders were telling Americans to go out and congregate in huge crowds, including at Chinese Lunar New Year parades.

    *  *  *

    My voice is being silenced by free speech-hating Silicon Valley behemoths who want me disappeared forever. It is CRUCIAL that you support me. Please sign up for the free newsletter here. Donate to me on SubscribeStar here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 04/04/2020 – 17:05

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 4th April 2020

  • Trump Fires Ukrainegate Inspector General Who Helped Initiate Impeachment
    Trump Fires Ukrainegate Inspector General Who Helped Initiate Impeachment

    President Trump on Friday fired the intelligence community inspector general, Michael Atkinson, who brought a hearsay whistleblower complaint to Congressional Democrats, kicking off President Trump’s impeachment. 

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    Atkinson’s closed-door testimony was so troubling to House Republicans that they launched an investigation into his role into what President Trump and his allies coined the ‘impeachment hoax.’

    Ranking member of the House Intelligence Intelligence Committee Devin Nunes (R-CA) told SarahCarter.com that transcripts of Atkinson’s secret testimony would expose that he either lied or needs to make corrections to his statements to lawmakers.

    Trump notified the Senate and House Intelligence Committees of his decision to fire Atkinson, according to Politico, citing two congressional officials and a copy of a letter dated April 3.

    “This is to advise that I am exercising my power as president to remove from office the inspector general of the intelligence community, effective 30 days from today,” wrote Trump, who added that he “no longer” has the fullest confidence in Atkinson.

    “As is the case with regard to other positions where I, as president, have the power of appointment, by and with the advice and consent of the Senate, it is vital that I have the fullest confidence in the appointees serving as inspectors general,” Trump wrote. “That is no longer the case with regard to this inspector general.”

    Trump knocked Atkinson on January, noting that House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff’s (D-CA) decision to withhold Atkinson’s testimony was a “major problem.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Democrats had a fit at the news, with Senate Intelligence Committee Vice Chairman Mark Warner (D-VA) calling Atkinson’s firing “unconscionable” while accusing Trump (with a straight face?) of an ongoing effort to politicize intelligence.

    “In the midst of a national emergency, it is unconscionable that the president is once again attempting to undermine the integrity of the intelligence community by firing yet another intelligence official simply for doing his job,” wrote Warner in a statement.

    Warner’s House counterpart, Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff (D-CA) called Atkinson’s firing “retribution” in the “dead of night” – adding that it’s “yet another blatant attempt by the president to gut the independence of the intelligence community and retaliate against those who dare to expose presidential wrongdoing.”

    Senate Minority Leader Chuck ‘six ways from Sunday’ Schumer (D-NY) said Atkinson’s firing was evidence that Trump “fires people for telling the truth,” according to Politico.

    Whistleblower lawyer and Disneyland aficionado Mark Zaid – who once bragged about getting security clearances for pedophiles, called the firing “delayed retaliatory action” for Atkinson’s “proper handling of a whistleblower complaint.”

    “This action is disgraceful and undermines the integrity of the whistleblower system,” said Zaid. “It is time GOP members of the Senate stand up for the rule of law and speak out against this president.”

    The whistleblower complaint effectively kicked off the House’s impeachment inquiry, which began in late September amid allegations that Trump had solicited foreign interference in the 2020 election when he asked Ukraine’s president to investigate his political opponents, including Joe Biden.

    Atkinson opposed the decision by then-acting director of national intelligence Joseph Maguire to withhold the whistleblower complaint from the House and Senate intelligence committees — in particular, Maguire’s decision to seek guidance on the issue from the Justice Department, rather than turn it over to Congress as required by law. –Politico

    To learn more about Atkinson, read here and here.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 04/04/2020 – 00:10

  • The Shadow War Playing Out Behind The COVID-19 Crisis
    The Shadow War Playing Out Behind The COVID-19 Crisis

    Authored by Gregory Copley via OilPrice.com,

    The rush to what is essentially a new wartime footing began consciously and urgently in the first quarter of 2020 between some of the most powerful geopolitical players of the modern era: the United States of America, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and the United Kingdom.

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    It was not about the “battle” to cope with the COVID-19 (coronavirus) epidemic, or the global fear pandemic which it engendered, but those contagions broke the cycle of globalism and the belief in the indissoluble nature of interdependence. It allowed what was already emerging as a fundamental move toward a new, bipolar global competition to come out into the open.

    By the end of March 2020, the global framework had changed sufficiently to become — behind the headlines about COVID-19 — about which system and ideology would triumph in the decades after the watershed. That meant a race by each of the major antagonists to determine how quickly national productivity could be resumed.

    Even so, the failure of most major societies, including the PRC, to prepare for health pandemics, natural disasters, and associated contagions of fear was a significant function of the transformed realities of the “globalist”-dominated political structures over the earlier lessons of national self-reliance. I made this point in a report in Defense & Foreign Affairs Special Analysis on November 24, 2008:

    The unintended, or unforeseen, consequences of economic dislocation — as this writer has repeatedly noted — can be expected to lead to a rise in globalized (or at least regionalized) pandemic health challenges at a time when societies are weakened. These will lead to wealthier societies becoming more nationalistic and isolated, in some respects, merely to protect themselves. Pandemics will be matched by similar anomic social responses, including rising crime, of which the new era of maritime piracy is merely one aspect

    Indeed, it is clear that the best avenue which nation-states can take is one marked by gaining as much control over their own destinies as possible. That requires a growing focus on domestic food self-sufficiency, and domestic market bases for manufactured goods and services. In other words: a return to a sense of the nation. The age of globalization is ending; it was a brief window in which the technologies which were created to fight the Cold War became the technologies of global social integration. Now, again, the luxury of internationalism is ending, and survival is based around the extended clan: the nation.

    It was a year later that the global H1N1 pandemic emerged, fortunately without triggering the associated fear pandemic which acted as a force multiplier to the impact of the 2019-20 COVID-19 epidemic.

    By 2020, a dozen years later, the transformed strategic landscape meant that information dominance (ID) warfare was far more enabled, particularly as social media evolved as a conduit for mass mobilization to force government actions in Western societies. So there was a general transformation in the social and technological context which prevailed when the panic arose around COVID-19.

    But, in order to gain the post-epidemic political high ground, the PRC was first to “declare victory” in managing the COVID-19 epidemic and to send its population back to work, despite the reality of evidence which defied the national statistics on the continuing levels of contagion in the PRC. However, it was clear that the epidemic, having its origins in Wuhan in the PRC, would peak first and begin to recover first. Still, it was the degree of top-down control which PRC Pres. Xi Jinping enjoyed — in contrast to Western heads of government — which enabled the PRC to “declare victory”, and to resume his offensive against the West in a now fairly blatant fashion.

    Even so, it was clear that the overall nature of the restructured strategic balance would be less affected by a few weeks (or even months) in the battle to restart economic activity than by underlying fundamentals in systems. Meanwhile, as the information dominance (ID) wars between the PRC and (particularly) the US ramped up, both sides were careful to ensure that the risk of actual physical challenge was minimized.

    What were some of the fundamental immediate outcomes and questions raised by the 2020 Fear Pandemic?

    1. The global economy and the economies of most states have been dramatically weakened, and they will remain relatively weakened and transformed for some years; in many cases for decades. This means that economic deprivation will reach more pervasively down into the mass of society, reversing the trend of the past seven decades. It will exacerbate the polarization of societies, but seems likely to push the trend toward forms of nationalism more than it will reinforce the ideology of globalism;

    2. The power of central governments has been dramatically increased, and the rights and freedoms of individuals constrained. By late March 2020, the situation in most Western societies had approached a quasi-martial law environment, with little social resistance;

    3. Funding for R&D, national security, and consumer spending will decline, further exacerbated by the reduction in core size/wealth of most populations in advanced economies. The question is whether the limitation in wealth will exacerbate or constrain inflammatory populism and social action;

    4. The role of global bodies has been weakened, as have alliances. This will lead to a rethinking of alliance structures and how to manage them. It will, even if only for reasons of fiscal constraints, lead to an increasing momentum toward the bilateralization of trade, even to the point, once again of thinking in terms of structured barter or counter-trade dealings;

    5. The reach of formal military structures will be inhibited by funding, and will this open seams in the global power framework? Will it allow space for more independent, regional actions?;

    6. While the Communist Party of China (CPC) probably has the strength to enforce control over the People’s Republic of China (PRC), will the European Union (EU) have sufficient cohesion to enforce control over its member states? If the EU cannot “hold it together”, would this create a space for Turkey to revive its neo-Ottomanist expansions in the Eastern Mediterranean and Balkans? Did the United Kingdom escape from the EU just in time to preserve its economic base? Did the EU’s poor handling of the crisis end forever the chance of bringing Serbia into the Union? And what will this new dynamic do for the encouragement of separate geopolitical alignments, such as the creation of the Three Seas Initiative as a potentially viable successor to part of the EU? Can Three Seas gain traction if Serbia is excluded, given its regional hub importance for the north-south infrastructural needs of the Alliance?;

    7. What skills will be necessary in the post-2020 environment? Has the economy sobered enough to embrace the restoration of practical skills training instead of ideological education which has no market, while an impetus toward revived domestic manufacturing (rather than foreign-sourced manufacturing) will see significant demand for trained personnel?;

    8. There was a widespread belief that the crisis had caused a collapse in petroleum and gas prices to the point where the US domestic shale industry would be forced from the marketplace, re-opening the US to the need for imported energy. But this is likely both untrue and irrelevant, and the US would remain considerably less vulnerable to energy exposure than the PRC;

    9. The PRC would continue to see extreme vulnerability to food and water shortages, which can only be ameliorated by (a) dependence on imported food and agricultural products, most of which would need to come from the United States (given that other suppliers cannot meet the demand), and (b) reduction in the lifestyles and numbers of the PRC population, a factor which could have significant social-political ramifications;

    10. The longer the constraints on societies imposed by the crisis, the more pro-found were the likely post-crisis attitude changes likely to be. In other words, if the crisis lingered in various forms through 2020, it was likely that the year would be seen by society and historians as a breakpoint equivalent to the world wars of the 20th Century;

    11. Nowhere in the world have we seen the development of economic theories or approaches to managing societies in decline in terms of economics as well as in terms of the downward transformation of market size and demand. Studies of recent-term lessons from Japan, Russia, and Germany would be helpful, even though these examples all predicated their economic thinking — despite market size decline — on growth in economic opportunity, but with notable shortcomings;

    12. Africa, which had moved from a Continent gradually modernizing within the framework of a Western model to one dependent almost solely on the PRC, was likely to be left in an almost ruinous situation by late 2020 and beyond. African societies would themselves be forced to evolve new economic models. There was a likelihood that the US would strongly move, in the post-crisis period, to strengthening its dominance in the Americas (where the PRC, in particular, had built a strong presence), and also in Central Asia, as a means of providing an alternate path in the Eurasian Silk Road complex.

    The COVID-19 pandemic will do little to impact the demographic trends in global population numbers. The trend toward population decline was set in place in the second half of the 20th Century and is only now becoming evident. Similarly, the disruption to the global economy also began before the COVID-19 crisis, largely as a result of the global demographic transformation, but the 2020 crisis became an iconic breakpoint.

    The post-COVID-19 world would thus be markedly different, structurally, than the world which preceded it. But most significantly, the perception of that “new” world would have changed, ensuring that a linear extrapolation of older remedies or progressions of earlier thinking would no longer be acceptable.

    It is important to stress that the two underlying strategic trends impacting the US-PRC competition had begun well before the 2020 pandemic scares. The PRC economy had been essentially in decline for several years, disguised by ongoing state-sponsored investments in infrastructure projects, which boosted the appearance of growth in the gross domestic product (GDP). Moreover, the PRC’s water shortage and quality problems had reached almost panic levels over that same timeframe.

    In a talk in Perth, Western Australia, on October 23, 2019, I noted:

    [The PRC] has almost 20 percent (18.4 percent) of the world’s population, and yet only seven percent of its water, and of that water some 25 percent, at least [as the PRC Government acknowledges], is polluted, along with much of its agricultural water table [to a far greater degree than the PRC Govt. acknowledges]. And the problem is getting worse. The great water source, the aquifers flowing from the melting snows of the Tien Shan Mountain range in Central Asia, is reducing for the moment.

    The result of this, and the fact that Chinese agriculture has not modernized to any great degree, is that the People’s Republic of China is perhaps more strategically dependent on imported food than any great power since Rome. And Rome, arguably, collapsed, finally, for that very reason: its foreign sources of food became less dependable. The PRC Bureau of Statistics in the 1980s recorded that there were some 50,000 rivers in mainland China. But by 2017, there were only some 23,000. Beijing, serviced by the so-called “Three Gorges Dam”, recorded in 2017 that 39.9 percent of its water was so polluted as to be unusable. Tianjin, a principal port city of the north (and with a population of 15-million), had only 4.9 percent of its water in a potable state.

    The growing urbanization of the constituent populations of the PRC have made the food and water crises more and more urgent. Urban populations use far more water than rural societies. They also demand more water-intensive food, such as pork and beef, especially as the city-dwellers become more prosperous. And the PRC’s urbanization rate continues apace: by the end of 2017, some 58.52 percent of its population was urbanized, compared with only 17.92 percent in 1978.

    You can see where this is going. And we have not even touched on the impact of air quality on health in the PRC, or the fact that urban-related diseases, such as diabetes, are rising at a higher rate than in other industrial economies; or the fact that a rapidly-aging population is transforming the economic viability of the state.

    And by late 2019, it became clear that the PRC was unable to continue the pursuit of military equivalence with the US. Minnie Chan, writing in The South China Morning Post on November 28, 2019, noted that the PRC Government had canceled plans for the People’s Liberation Army-Navy (PLAN) to build two nuclear-power very large aircraft carriers to compare with the capability of US carriers. The PLAN has two carriers afloat with two more abuilding; all conventionally-powered. The reasons for the cancelations of the prestige super-carrier program were cited as “technical challenges and high costs”.

    The PRC has significant technologies which had briefly leapfrogged the US, particularly in the areas of hypersonic weapons and space, but belatedly a more resilient US economy was beginning to redress the years of neglect by all US presidents between Pres. Ronald Reagan (1981-89) and Pres. Donald Trump (2017- ). The US was slowly beginning to compensate for the sense of smugness and hubris which pervaded its global thinking after the end of the Cold War in 1990.

    But the US had, along with most European powers, subcontracted most of its manufacturing to the PRC in the post-Cold War era, and the COVID-19 epidemic — and the US-PRC “trade war” which immediately preceded it (and which was likely to resume significantly in late 2020) — saw the extent of global dependence on mainland China factories. Beijing was counting on this dependence to restart its economic push in the second quarter of 2020.

    But will that manufacturing/export revival be sufficient to restart the PRC economy, which was essentially already hollowed out?

    And was the US (and Western) dependence on the PRC manufacturing sector likely to be the same as pre-COVID-19? Unlikely, given the reality that global demand would have declined substantially for at least the remainder of 2020 because of the economic impact of the crisis, and because a number of efforts to restore domestic manufacturing of key products had already begun in the US, Canada, Australia, the UK, and the like.

    Moreover, the weakness of the PRC position, economically, seems to be borne out by the understanding that it had made dramatic cuts in the first quarter of 2020 to its investment in its Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) global supply chain. BRI had, in its origins, been conceived merely as a material and transactional form of maoist globalist ideology; a way to bind foreign states to the PRC as “tributary” states and to provide the PRC with its resource needs and markets. But most of the BRI contracts and loans to foreign states had not been calculated on a realistic market basis.

    Reports from Beijing indicated that funding for BRI projects had dropped in early 2020 by some 80 percent over the same period a year earlier. But some of these cuts were already well underway by the time the COVID-19 crisis struck.

    The Hong Kong-based newspaper, The South China Morning Post, reported on October 10, 2019, that investment in BRI had begun to drop in 2018. It noted: “The value of new projects across 61 countries fell 13 percent to US$126-billion in 2018 [compared with the previous year], with the figure falling further in 2019.” In fact, it said that investment had fallen a further 6.7 percent in the seven months leading up to August 2019, and existing contracts were reduced by 4.2 percent in the first eight months of 2019.

    The Post article continued: “[I]n the first half of 2019, China’s investment and construction activity around the world plunged by over 50 percent compared to the first half of 2018, while new projects under the belt and road plan dropped sharply, according to a report published in July by Derek Scissors, resident scholar at the China Global Investment Tracker from the American Enterprise Institute. Scissors said Chinese SOEs were still moving car and steel capacity overseas and building new motorways and cement plants in developing economies, but that is now “on a smaller scale” compared to the 2016 investment peak.”

    The cutbacks were not only caused by Beijing. By late 2019 and early 2020, a significant number of major programs in the BRI which had received commitments from foreign countries were canceled or scaled-back. These were particularly evident in Pakistan (which has a major strategic need to depend on Beijing), Malaysia, Myanmar, Bangladesh, and Sierra Leone. The arrival of the new Government in Ethiopia in April 2018 had already seen that country sour on involvement with new BRI projects.

    To a degree, all this decline in the PRC’s economic reach was likely to see the PRC attempt to regain global market share by dumping of goods onto the global marketplace in a bid to ensure that nationalistically-oriented commitments in the US, Europe, Australia, and the like did not attempt to rebuild their own manufacturing sectors. So the response by client states to PRC attempts to recapture markets and prevent the rise of national or sovereign independence would be a measure as to how much Western leaders learned from the crisis period of early 2020.

    For this reason, strategically, it was critical for the Communist Party of China (CPC) to ensure that US Pres. Donald Trump was not re-elected to the US Presidency on November 3, 2020, and that the Democratic Party in the US would strengthen its position in the US Congress. As a result, the CPC’s information dominance warfare against the US was geared specifically toward the downfall of Pres. Trump, and in this it sought to enlist the support of the anti-Trump sections of the US polity. There were clearly some elements of the US political community which were prepared to align with Beijing — albeit not overtly — in order to ensure the removal of Donald Trump and the ascendance of Democratic Party presumed candidate Joe Biden.

    So the US elections would become the next major breakpoint in the now overt US-PRC war.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 04/04/2020 – 00:00

  • New York City "Doesn't Have Any Dogs Left To Foster" In Latest COVID-19-Related Shortage
    New York City “Doesn’t Have Any Dogs Left To Foster” In Latest COVID-19-Related Shortage

    There’s been shortages of all types as New York City deals with the unprecedented lockdown as a result of the coronavirus. But one of the most surprising of these shortages has been dogs and cats.

    There’s been a “run on pets” in the city, according to Bloomberg, ostensibly as lonely New Yorkers realize they’re going to be locked inside without anyone to monopolize the conversation with or boss around. So, many of them have adopted fostered animals. 

    Shelters in the city say they have received a surge in applications that is as much as “10-fold” their normal rates. New Yorkers apparently see owning pets as a way to calm their nerves during a difficult time. And this means that pets are finding new, and hopefully happy, homes at a record rate.

    Anna Lai, the marketing director at Muddy Paws said: “For the moment we definitely don’t have any dogs left to match with foster volunteers. Which is a great problem to have.”

    Shares of pet-related companies have been surging during the pandemic, as well. Online pet supplier Chewy.com has seen shares rise 7% this year, despite the market’s near 30% pullback. Its delivery lead times have been extended to between 7 and 10 days for most customers. 

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    RBC Capital Markets said in a report: “Chewy’s in-home delivery model mitigates the public health concern of consumers shopping at brick-and-mortar retailers.”

    PetMed Express is another name that’s been outperforming. Its shares are up more than 7% during the S&P’s decline.

    And the run on pets seems to extend itself far beyond New York. For example, The American Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals in LA says they have seen a 70% increase in animals going to foster care, also. Julie Castle, chief executive officer of Best Friends said: “We’re seeing people show up in droves to foster.”

    But rescue organizations are also worried the opposite will happen once the pandemic is over or the economy plunges further. They fear they could see a rise in surrendered pets. 

    Lisa LaFontaine, chief executive officer of the Humane Rescue Alliance said: “We’re doing whatever we can to empty all of our shelter facilities. We don’t know what’s going to happen when the economic wave starts hitting.”

    But one Washington D.C. couple said the time was opportunistic for them to welcome a new member to the family. Tom Drescher and his wife, Becky Nolin said: “It occurred to us it would be a good time to adopt a dog because we’d have the time and bandwidth to help it settle in. It’s been a blast for us so far — we’ve been thrilled to have her.”


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 04/03/2020 – 23:40

  • The US Military Is Preparing For "Worst-Case Contagion Scenarios" (But It's A Secret)
    The US Military Is Preparing For “Worst-Case Contagion Scenarios” (But It’s A Secret)

    Authored by Eric Felten via RealClearInvestigations.com,

    The U.S. military is “preparing for worst-case scenarios with respect to the potential spread” of the COVID-19 virus, U.S. Air Force Gen. Tod D. Wolters told reporters Friday.

    But just what those scenarios are is a military secret. At a time when the president and his advisers hold daily press conferences where worst-case scenarios for civilians are frankly and alarmingly discussed, the Pentagon is moving to tighten what information it shares about COVID-19’s impact on the military.

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    The Department of Defense has been providing running totals of military-related COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, and mortality, with separate figures for service members, their families, and civilian contractors. For example, as of Monday, the Pentagon reported 1,087 cases, of which 569 involved troops. These figures were higher by two-thirds than they had been Friday. But the demands of epidemiological accuracy are beginning to clash with the imperatives of operational secrecy.

    “I’m not going to get into a habit where we start providing numbers across all the commands and we come to a point six, seven weeks from now where we have some concerns in some locations and reveal information that could put people at risk,” Secretary of Defense Mark Esper told Reuters.

    No one wants to give bad actors the idea that American troop strength is weakened on any particular front.

    If not necessarily weakening forces, the virus is already causing complications. The commanding general of the U.S. Army in Europe, Christopher Cavoli, has spent most of March in self-isolation after coming into contact with someone infected with COVID-19.

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    Lt.. Gen. Cavoli is just one of many officers who have taken to the internet to communicate with their troops via video. But missing from the videos is the officer one would most expect to see in that part of the world, the chief medical officer for the European theater. Brig. Gen. Ronald Stephens was relieved of command Monday. He had been suspended Feb. 12. For what, the Army isn’t saying – it’s a different sort of military secret — but the timing is less than optimal. Regional Health Command-Europe is being headed on an acting basis by Stephens’ former chief of staff, Col. Andre Pippen.

    Wolters, commander of U.S. forces in Europe, was relatively forthcoming when he said that “to sustain the current readiness posture,” he might have to “go outside the forces I currently command.” But if it happens, don’t expect it to be announced: Department of Defense spokesperson Alyssa Farah put out a statement last week saying, “If at some point in the future, a commander believes that the coronavirus could affect the readiness of our strategic deterrent or strategic response forces we would understandably protect that information.”

    A senior defense official told Military Times on Monday that though the Pentagon would be reporting general figures, it would be “tamping down” on the release of “unit, region and installation” details.

    Dealing with disease is key to military readiness. Wars in which the majority of fatalities are due to battlefield slaughter are something of a 20th century invention. The Civil War displayed a staggering carelessness with men’s lives, whether Pickett’s suicidal charge or just about any campaign waged by U.S. Grant. And yet for all the carnage, of over 600,000 fatalities, some two out of three died from diseases, including dysentery, typhoid, malaria and tuberculosis.

    In Britain’s Thirty Years’ War, “deaths from disease far outstripped deaths from weapon in this as in every European conflict prior to the twentieth century,” writes historian William H. McNeill in the book “Plagues and Peoples.” The Continental Army was ravaged with smallpox until George Washington forced reluctant troops to be vaccinated. “Disease has destroyed Ten Men for Us,” John Adams wrote to his wife, Abigail, “where the Sword of the Enemy has killed one.”

    The U.S. military doesn’t face anything like that with COVID-19 so far. But it is a reminder of the importance of keeping soldiers healthy to keeping them ready as a fighting force.

    Some fronts have already been affected, if only marginally, as coalition forces have been drawn down. In the last week, hundreds of troops from the Netherlands, France, Spain and Portugal have left Iraq and Afghanistan, redeployed to their home countries to bolster civilian responses to the disease. U.S. and British training with Iraqi forces has been suspended and some U.K. soldiers have returned to Great Britain for emergency assignments.

    The U.S. military has a deeper bench, of course, and can afford to assign the Army Corps of Engineers to outfit temporary emergency hospitals and the Navy to sail hospital ships to home-front hot spots. But that could eventually lead to drawdowns significant enough that the Pentagon wouldn’t want it known.

    Still, a more detailed picture is painted by the information given to troops than that given the public. The Army’s acting regional health commander for Europe, Col. Pippen, held a virtual town hall with other medical officers to answer questions about COVID-19 and the Army’s response. Soldiers and their spouses emailed in. The answers they were given suggest the Army’s health system is stressed, even at Landstuhl Regional Medical Center in Germany, the largest military hospital in Europe.

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    “Every time I call the Landstuhl appointment line, I get a busy signal,” was one exasperated complaint.

    Col. Randall Freeman, deputy commander for health readiness at Landstuhl, didn’t have much to offer:

    “Our network is very heavily burdened right now, with a much higher volume of calls than we normally have,” he said.

    “I encourage patients to keep trying. Sometimes it takes three, four, or five tries to get through.”

    Freeman and the other Army health officials said the hospital was going to be focused on urgent care, and all other services would have to be online.

    Soldiers can normally expect that their medical information and that of their families will be handled according to HIPAA principles. But not in the age of COVID-19. A soldier’s wife who had been tested for the virus emailed the town hall to ask what had happened to her privacy. The results of her test had been given first to her husband’s commanding officer, then to her husband, and only only after that to her. “In a public health emergency,” Freeman responded, “the command has to know certain things that affect the ability of the unit to carry out its mission.”

    Some of the steps normally taken to clear troops as ready are being pushed off. For example, soldiers have to pass an annual dental exam to be considered deployable. But such routine care is no longer available. “We have stopped offering readiness exam appointments,” Col. Manuel Pozo-Alonso, the Army’s dental regional commander for Europe, said in the virtual town hall. Dental personnel are being seconded to COVID-19 duties. He admitted that because of even that minor consequence of switching to a COVID-19 footing, “There will be a little detriment to our readiness over time.”


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 04/03/2020 – 23:20

  • San Francisco Bans Reusable Bags To Counter Virus-Contagion Threat
    San Francisco Bans Reusable Bags To Counter Virus-Contagion Threat

    The San Francisco Bay Area is usually ahead of the curve when it comes to implementing environmentally-friendly policies to save the planet. However, city officials banned reusable shopping bags Wednesday as a way to enforce social distancing protocols imposed by the state government to limit the spread of COVID-19

    The reusable bag ban was enforced by the San Francisco Department of Public Health (SFDPH) under a new social distancing protocol that was published Wednesday, which restricts people from using reusable shopping bags at supermarkets to prevent outside germs from entering. 

    The order says explicitly that store employees are not allowed to let “customers bring their own bags, mugs, or other reusable items from home” into essential businesses during the quarantine. 

    San Francisco Mayor London Breed on Wednesday said the citywide shelter-in-place public health order would be extended through May 3: 

    “I can’t reiterate enough how important it is for all of us to continue to comply, for all of us to continue to be good citizens, to cooperate,” Breed said.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Climate alarmist Greta Thunberg is going to be absolutely furiously about the ban. She’s been organizing a climate strike online because of the social distancing measures enforced by governments across the world. 

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    However, Thunberg should be happy that the global economy has crashed, and pollution across China and Italy has subsided


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 04/03/2020 – 23:00

  • Waves Of Mutilation: Medical Tyranny And The Cashless Society
    Waves Of Mutilation: Medical Tyranny And The Cashless Society

    Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

    Back in 2014 during the Ebola scare in the US I published an article warning about how a global pandemic could be used by the elites as cover for the implementation of an economic collapse as well as martial law measures in western nations. My immediate concern was the way in which a viral outbreak could be engineered or exploited as a rationale for a level of social control that the public would never accept under normal circumstances.

    And this could be ANY viral outbreak, not just Ebola. The point is the creation of an “invisible enemy” that the populace cannot quantify and defend itself against without constant government oversight.

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    I noted specifically how the government refused to apply air travel restrictions in 2014 to nations where the outbreak had taken hold when they could have stopped the spread in its tracks. This is something that was done again in 2020 as the UN’s WHO and governments including our government in the US refused to stop air travel from China, pretending as if it was not a hot zone and that the virus was nothing to worry about.

    This attitude of nonchalance serves a purpose. The establishment NEEDS the pandemic to spread, because then they have a rationale for strict controls of pubic activities and movements. This is the end goal. They have no care whatsoever for public health or safety. The end game is to acquire power, not save lives.  In fact, they might prefer a higher death count in the beginning as this would motivate the public to beg for more restrictions in the name of security.

    Authorities went from downplaying the outbreak and telling people not to bother with preparations like purchasing N95 masks, to full blown crisis mode only weeks later. In January Trump initially claimed he “trusted” the data out of China and said that “everything was under control”; as usual only a couple months down the road and Trump flip-flopped on both assertions.  The World Health Organization refused to even label this outbreak a “pandemic” until the virus was entrenched across the globe.  The question people will ask is, was this all due to incompetence, or was it social engineering?

    The Ebola event six years ago seems to have been a dry run for what is happening today.  I believe it is entirely deliberate, and I will explain why in this article, but either way, governments have proven they cannot be trusted to handle the pandemic crisis, nor can they be trusted to protect the people and their freedoms.

    At the same time, the pandemic itself is tightly intertwined with economic collapse. The two events feed off one another. The pandemic provides perfect cover for the crash of the massive debt bubble central banks and international banks have created over the years. I noted in February that the global economy was crashing long before the coronavirus ever showed up.  At the same time, economic chaos increases 3rd world conditions within each country, which means poor nutrition and health care options that cause more sickness and more deaths from the virus. As outlined in 2014:

    Who would question the event of an economic collapse in the wake of an Ebola (virus) soaked nightmare? Who would want to buy or sell? Who would want to come in contact with strangers to generate a transaction? Who would even leave their house? Ebola (viral) treatment in first world nations has advantages of finance and a cleaner overall health environment, but what if economic downturn happens simultaneously? America could experience third world status very quickly, and with it, all the unsanitary conditions that result in an exponential Ebola (pandemic) death rate.

    …Amidst even a moderate or controlled viral scenario, stocks and bonds will undoubtedly crash, a crash that was going to happen anyway. The international banks who created the mess get off blameless, while Ebola (viral outbreak), an act of nature, becomes the ultimate scapegoat for every disaster that follows.”

    As the double threat of financial collapse and viral pandemic accelerate, fear becomes widespread for those that never prepared ahead of time (and we’re talking about millions of people).  When people are afraid they tend to sacrifice their freedoms to anyone that offers them a promise of safety, no matter how empty. For now, the public is being convinced to assume that lockdowns and restrictions are temporary, but this is a lie. The elites must maintain and increase restrictions with each passing month in order to prevent rebellion until they are ready to implement martial law measures.

    You see, the establishment is going for broke with this event, and because of this there is the potential for them to face dire consequences. The facade is quickly evaporating; the collectivists and globalists are risking exposure of themselves and their political puppets in order to build a totalitarian system with extreme speed. The establishment must keep the pressure on for now, because if the public is allowed to breath for just a moment they might look around and wake up to the bigger agenda. The public has to be forced to beg for aid from the authorities; only then will the pressure be lifted for a short time. The public has to believe the control grid was THEIR idea.

    A new process of mass conditioning is about to be set in motion, using “waves” of panic and then waves of release and calm. After studying the behavioral traits and methods of narcissistic sociopaths (psychopaths) for many years, I can tell you this form of conditioning is very familiar. This is exactly what they always do, just on a global scale – They create an atmosphere of crisis to keep people around them unbalanced and on edge, then “relieve the pressure” intermittently so that those same people relax and their anger is deflated for a time. Then, the process starts all over again…

    This conditioning traps the narcopath’s victims in a constant state of flux and uncertainty, and the moments of calm become a placebo which prevent their rebellion against him. He can then feed off his victims at his leisure like a psychological vampire, and often these victims will see the narcopath as their only means of support. They have been convinced that all the threats are coming from the outside; they do not realize the source of the threats is the person standing right next to them.

    The wave model of conditioning and control is starting to show up everywhere, and it is most blatant in the intended “solution” presented by establishment elites in response to the coronavirus outbreak. As Truthstream Media outlined in their excellent video ‘We Are Living In 12 Monkeys’, MIT recently published a paper written by their globalist editor in chief Gideon Lichfield titled ‘We’re Not Going Back To Normal’ which admits quite brazenly how the elites intend to use this crisis to their advantage.

    Lichfield lays out a kind of programming schedule for the population based on waves of viral infection outbreaks, waves of tight social restrictions, followed by waves of limited economic activity and limited calm over the next 18 months. As Lichfield suggests:

    To stop coronavirus we will need to radically change almost everything we do: how we work, exercise, socialize, shop, manage our health, educate our kids, take care of family members.

    We all want things to go back to normal quickly. But what most of us have probably not yet realized—yet will soon—is that things won’t go back to normal after a few weeks, or even a few months. Some things never will.”

    He continues:

    As long as someone in the world has the virus, breakouts can and will keep recurring without stringent controls to contain them. In a report yesterday researchers at Imperial College London proposed a way of doing this: impose more extreme social distancing measures every time admissions to intensive care units (ICUs) start to spike, and relax them each time admissions fall…”

    Understand that there are 7 billion people on the planet, and this process of control could go on for years while we wait for every person to overcome the virus or die from it.  The only way for the public to escape this purgatory (according to Lichfield) is for them to submit to a biometric data grid. They must volunteer (or be forced) to participate in 24/7 tracking through their cell phones and through mass surveillance. In order to function in society, an individual must have the proper digital marker which tells the authorities that they are “clean” and devoid of infection.  The system is being used in China right now:

    This system achieves a number of things. Much like the social credit system China has been using for the past few years, the public is compelled to constantly appease the hidden but all seeing eye of government. Everything they do is watched by algorithms and surveillance. Any deviation might trigger scrutiny and a loss of simple freedoms to move around or participate in normal human interaction. Lichfield argues:

    Ultimately, however, I predict that we’ll restore the ability to socialize safely by developing more sophisticated ways to identify who is a disease risk and who isn’t, and discriminating—legally—against those who are.

    …one can imagine a world in which, to get on a flight, perhaps you’ll have to be signed up to a service that tracks your movements via your phone. The airline wouldn’t be able to see where you’d gone, but it would get an alert if you’d been close to known infected people or disease hot spots. There’d be similar requirements at the entrance to large venues, government buildings, or public transport hubs. There would be temperature scanners everywhere, and your workplace might demand you wear a monitor that tracks your temperature or other vital signs. Where nightclubs ask for proof of age, in future they might ask for proof of immunity—an identity card or some kind of digital verification via your phone, showing you’ve already recovered from or been vaccinated against the latest virus strains.”

    And there you have it.

    The social and biometric control grid that globalists have been hungry to set up for years now has the perfect catalyst – a viral pandemic which could cycle indefinitely; all that would be needed is to release a designer virus every couple years which renews public fear. The populace becomes increasingly dependent on government for everything as their very survival depends on their ability to function within the new economy, and without a special mark granted by government saying you are not an infection risk, you could be shunned from all trade and participation.

    Refuse to get vaccinated due to health concerns?  You’re kicked out of the economy.  Homeschool your children?  They have not been monitored and are therefore an infection risk, and your whole family is kicked out of the economy.  Hold political views that are contrary to globalism?  Maybe you are listed as a danger to the system and wrongly labeled infected as punishment; and then you are kicked out of the economy.  The establishment can use the threat of economic removal to condition many people into complacency or slavery.

    The MIT editor goes on to drive his point home in rather arrogant fashion:

    We’ll adapt to and accept such measures, much as we’ve adapted to increasingly stringent airport security screenings in the wake of terrorist attacks. The intrusive surveillance will be considered a small price to pay for the basic freedom to be with other people.”

    Beyond the effort to turn “social distancing” into a new cultural norm enforced by law, there is another agenda being quietly instituted – the cashless society. More and more businesses are starting to refuse cash payments, claiming that paper cash spreads the virus.  Oddly enough, they still accept debit cards using pin pads which are much more likely than cash to spread disease.

    This may force the public to keep their money in banks despite the threat of a credit freeze or bank holiday. What if you pull cash out of your accounts but are not able to spend it anywhere? Eventually, they will ban debit and credit card transactions in stores as well, and replace them with a non-interactive payment model. This will probably be done through your cell phone in the beginning using a scanning app. In the end, they will use your biometric data for all money transactions.

    This forces the public, yet again, to carry a cell phone on them everywhere for their very survival. The tracking network for the virus as well as the new payment transaction system makes this device indispensable. If you want to participate in society, you will have no choice but to be tracked and traced at all times.

    Unless, of course, you build your own system of trade and interaction.

    The solution to medical tyranny and the cashless society is to not need the system at all for your own survival. This means people will have to build their own economies based on barter and local scrip. They will have to dump their cell phones and rely on other forms of communication such as radio, or establish a digital communication system separate and independent from the establishment system. They will have to become producers and achieve more self reliance. They will have to break free from the grid, and this has to start RIGHT NOW.

    Of course, the establishment will claim that these independent people are a threat to everyone else simply by existing.  They will perpetuate the lie of “herd immunity” and will claim that independent people will “spread the virus”, even to those who are supposedly protected through vaccination. And eventually they will try to stop decoupled and localized communities from existing using force. At that point we simply go to war with the elites, as we were always going to have to do anyway.

    The alternative is slavery in the name of the “greater good”, but there is no greater good without freedom, and there is no society without individuality. Pandemic be damned.

    *  *  *

    If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch.  Learn more about it HERE.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 04/03/2020 – 22:40

  • Here's Every Vaccine And Treatment In Development For COVID-19, So Far
    Here’s Every Vaccine And Treatment In Development For COVID-19, So Far

    As the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases continues to skyrocket, healthcare researchers around the world are working tirelessly to discover new life-saving medical innovations.

    As Visual Capitalist’s Nick Routley notes, the projects these companies are working on can be organized into three distinct groups:

    1. Diagnostics: Quickly and effectively detecting the disease in the first place

    2. Treatments: Alleviating symptoms so people who have disease experience milder symptoms, and lowering the overall mortality rate

    3. Vaccines: Preventing transmission by making the population immune to COVID-19

    Today’s graphics provide an in-depth look at who’s in the innovation race to defeat the virus, and they come to us courtesy of Artis Ventures, a venture capital firm focused on life sciences and tech investments.

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    Editor’s note: R&D is moving fast on COVID-19, and the situation is quite fluid. While today’s post is believed to be an accurate snapshot of all innovations and developments listed by WHO and FDA as of March 30, 2020, it is possible that more data will become available.

    Knowledge is Power

    Testing rates during this pandemic have been a point of contention. Without widespread testing, it has been tough to accurately track the spread of the virus, as well as pin down important metrics such as infectiousness and mortality rates. Inexpensive test kits that offer quick results will be key to curbing the outbreak.

    Here are the companies and institutions developing new tests for COVID-19:

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    The ultimate aim of companies like Abbott and BioFire Defense is to create a test that can produce accurate results in as little as a few minutes.

    In the Trenches With Coronavirus

    While the majority of people infected with COVID-19 only experience minor symptoms, the disease can cause severe issues in some cases – even resulting in death. Most of the forms of treatment being pursued fall into one of two categories:

    1. Treating respiratory symptoms – especially the inflammation that occurs in severe cases

    2. Antiviral growth – essentially stopping viruses from multiplying inside the human body

    Here are the companies and institutions developing new treatment options for COVID-19:

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    A wide range of players are in the race to develop treatments related to COVID-19. Pharma and healthcare companies are in the mix, as well as universities and institutes.

    One surprising name on the list is Fujifilm. The Japanese company’s stock recently shot up on the news that Avigan, a decades-old flu drug developed through Fujifilm’s healthcare subsidiary, might be effective at helping coronavirus patients recover. The Japanese government’s stockpile of the drug is reportedly enough to treat two million people.

    Vaccine

    The progress that is perhaps being watched the closest by the general public is the development of a COVID-19 vaccine.

    Creating a safe vaccine for a new illness is no easy feat. Thankfully, rapid progress is being made for a variety of reasons, including China’s efforts to sequence the genetic material of Sars-CoV-2 and to share that information with research groups around the world.

    Another factor contributing to the unprecedented speed of development is the fact that coronaviruses were already on the radar of health science researchers. Both SARS and MERS were caused by coronaviruses, and even though vaccines were shelved once those outbreaks were contained, learnings can still be applied to defeating COVID-19.

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    One of the most promising leads on a COVID-19 vaccine is mRNA-1273. This vaccine, developed by Moderna Therapeutics, is being developed with extreme urgency, skipping straight into human trials before it was even tested in animals. If all goes well with the trials currently underway in Washington State, the company hopes to have an early version of the vaccine ready by fall 2020. The earliest versions of the vaccine would be made available to at-risk groups such as healthcare workers.

    Further down the pipeline are 15 types of subunit vaccines. This method of vaccination uses a fragment of a pathogen, typically a surface protein, to trigger an immune response, teaching the body’s immune system how to fight off the disease without actually introducing live pathogens.

    No Clear Finish Line

    Unfortunately, there is no silver bullet for solving this pandemic.

    A likely scenario is that teams of researchers around the world will come up with solutions that will incrementally help stop the spread of the virus, mitigate symptoms for those infected, and help lower the overall death toll. As well, early solutions rushed to market will need to be refined over the coming months.

    We can only hope that the hard lessons learned from fighting COVID-19 will help stop a future outbreak in its tracks before it becomes a pandemic. For now, those of us on the sideline can only do our best to flatten the curve.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 04/03/2020 – 22:20

  • America, We Have To End The Wars Now
    America, We Have To End The Wars Now

    Authored by Scott Horton via The Libertarian Institute,

    Can anyone think what our society might have spent six and a half trillion dollars on instead of 20 years of war in the Middle East for nothing? How about the trillion dollars per year we keep spending on the military on top of that?

    Invading, dominating and remaking the Arab world to serve the interests of the American empire and the state of Greater Israel sounds downright quaint at this point. Iraq War II, as Senator Bernie Sanders said in the debate a few weeks ago, while letting Joe Biden, one of its primary proponents, off the hook for it, was “a long time ago.” Actually, Senator, we still have troops there fighting Iraq War III 1/2 against what’s left of the ISIS insurgency, and our current government continues to threaten the launch of Iraq War IV against the very parties we fought the last two wars for. This would almost certainly then lead to war with Iran.

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    The U.S.A. still has soldiers, marines and CIA spies in Syria, Afghanistan, Somalia, Libya, Mali, Tunisia, Niger, Nigeria, Chad and only God and Nick Turse know where else.

    Worst of all, America under President Donald Trump is still “leading from behind” in the war in Yemen Barack Obama started in conspiracy with Saudi then-Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman back in 2015. This war is nothing less than a deliberate genocide.

    It is a medieval-style siege campaign against the civilian population of the country. The war has killed more than a quarter of a million innocent people in the last five years, including at least 85,000 children under five years old. And, almost unbelievably, this war is being fought on behalf of the American people’s enemies, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).

    These are the same guys that bombed the USS Cole in the port of Aden in 2000, helped to coordinate the September 11th attack, tried to blow up a plane over Detroit with the underpants bomb on Christmas Day 2009, tried to blow up another plane with a package bomb and launched the Charlie Hebdo attack in Paris, France since then. In fact, CENTCOM was helping the Houthi regime in the capital of Sana’a target and kill AQAP as late as January 2015, just two months before Obama stabbed them in the back and took al Qaeda’s side against them. So the war is genocide and treason.

    As Senator Rand Paul once explained to Neil Cavuto on Fox News back before he decided to become virtually silent on the matter, if the U.S.-Saudi-UAE alliance were to succeed in driving the Houthi regime from power in the capital city, they could end up being replaced by AQAP or the local Muslim Brotherhood group, al-Islah. There is zero chance that the stated goal of the war, the re-installation of former dictator Mansur Hadi on the throne, could ever succeed. And yet the war rages on. President Trump says he’s doing it for the moneyThat’s right. And he’s just recently sent the Marines to intervene in the war on behalf of our enemy-allies too.

    We still have troops in Germany in the name of keeping Russia out 30 years after the end of the Cold War and dissolution of the Soviet Empire, even though Germany is clearly not afraid of Russia at all, and are instead more worried that the U.S. and its newer allies are going to get them into a fight they do not want. The Germans prefer to “get along with Russia,” and buy natural gas from them, while Trump’s government does everything in its power to prevent it.

    America has expanded our NATO military alliance right up to Russia’s western border and continues to threaten to include Ukraine and former-Soviet Georgia in the pact right up to the present day. As the world’s worst hawks and Russiagate Hoax accusers have admitted, Trump has been by far the worst anti-Russia president since the end of the last Cold War.

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    Obama may have hired a bunch of Hitler-loving Nazis to overthrow the government of Ukraine for him back in 2014, but at least he was too afraid to send them weapons, something Trump has done enthusiastically, even though he was actually impeached by the Democrats for moving a little too slowly on one of the shipments.

    We still have troops in South Korea to protect against the North, even though in economic and conventional terms the South overmatches the North by orders of magnitude. Communism really doesn’t work. And the only reason the North even decided to make nukes is because George W. Bush put a gun to their head and essentially made them do it. But as Cato’s Doug Bandow says, we don’t even need a new deal. The U.S. could just forget about North Korea and it wouldn’t make any difference to our security at all.

    And now China. Does anyone outside of the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps really care whether the entire Pacific Ocean is an American lake or only 95% of it? The “threat” of Chinese dominance in their own part of the world exists only in the heads of hawkish American policy wonks and the Taiwanese, who should have been told a long time ago that they are on their own and that there’s no way in the world the American people or government are willing to trade Los Angeles and San Francisco for Taipei.

    Perhaps without the U.S. superpower standing behind them, Taiwanese leaders would be more inclined to seek a peaceful settlement with Beijing. If not, that’s their problem. Not one American in a million is willing to sacrifice their own home town in a nuclear war with China over an island that means nothing to them. Nor should they. Nor should our government even dream they have the authority to hand out such dangerous war guarantees to any other country in such a reckless fashion.

    And that’s it. There are no other powers anywhere in the world. Certainly there are none who threaten the American people. Our government claims they are keeping the peace, but there are approximately two million Arabs and Pashtuns who would disagree except that they’ve already been killed in our recent wars and so are unavailable for comment.

    The George W. Bush and Barack Obama eras are long over. We near the end, or half-way point, of the Trump years, and yet our former leaders’ wars rage on.

    Enough already. It is time to end the war on terrorism and end the rest of the American empire as well. As our dear recently departed friend Jon Basil Utley learned from his professor Carroll Quigley, World Empire is the last stage of a civilization before it dies. That is the tragedy. The hope is that we can learn from history and preserve what’s left of our republic and the freedom that made it great in the first place, by abandoning our overseas “commitments” and husbanding our resources so that we may pass down a legacy of liberty to our children.

    The danger to humanity represented by the Coronavirus plague has, by stark relief, exposed just how unnecessary and therefore criminal this entire imperial project has been. We could have quit the empire 30 years ago when the Cold War ended, if not long before.

    We could have a perfectly normal and peaceful relationship with Iraq, Iran, Syria, Korea, Russia, China, Yemen and any of the other nations our government likes to pretend threaten us. And when it comes to our differences, we would then be in the position to kill them with kindness and generosity, leading the world to liberty the only way we truly can, voluntarily, on the global free market of ideas and results.

    That is what the world needs and the legacy the American people deserve.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 04/03/2020 – 22:00

  • Delaware State Police Authorized To Pull Over Out-Of-State Drivers During Pandemic
    Delaware State Police Authorized To Pull Over Out-Of-State Drivers During Pandemic

    Delaware police have been granted the authority to pull over drivers displaying out-of-state tags to ask questions about why they’re on the road, before telling them that “they are required by law to self-quarantine for 14 days while in Delaware, or immediately return to their state,” according to Gov. John Carney’s state of emergency declaration.

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    According to CBS Philly, the order excludes out-of-state drivers on I-95, I-295 and I-495, as well as motorists entering the state to work for an essential business, care for a family member or for health care reasons.

    Now is not the time to visit Delaware. As a state and a nation, we are facing a serious situation that is getting worse each day.  Our goal is to limit a surge in COVID-19 cases that would overwhelm our hospital system. Per the order, we must control and prevent the spread of COVID-19 in our Delaware communities coming in from other states. We’ll get through this – but everyone needs to do their part,” reads a statement from the Delaware State Police.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 04/03/2020 – 21:40

  • In The New Age Of Deception, COVID-19 Has Hastened The Old Collectivism
    In The New Age Of Deception, COVID-19 Has Hastened The Old Collectivism

    Authored by Doug “Uncola” Lynn via TheBurningPlatform.com,

    “…..but the plan insidiously advances.”

    – ordo ab chao

    They are banned from churches and public spaces. They can’t hold hands to pray. LOL!

    – The Devil

    At the very end of last year, I wrote a New Year’s piece entitled “America is Over But You Knew That Already”, whereby various “cracks and water in the nation’s foundation” were explored.  In that article, I said: winter is finally here along with these words:

     Exactly how and when America’s foundational stones will shatter in the coming months is anyone’s guess, but do know this:  When Progressive Democrats, and an activist mainstream media, stage a third-world impeachment trial of a U.S. President while reverently citing the words of the nation’s long-dead founders who were, by their own definition, privileged white males and racist slave owners – the end is nigh.

    In a later article, six reasons were explored as to why the COVID-19 virus failed “the sniff test” along with the coincidental timing that marked the rise of the virus:

    [the first COVID-19 death outside of China] was one day before the Iowa Caucuses were held (2-3-2020) where the results were massaged to raise Mayor Pete over Bernie and bump Biden to the bare minimum viability.

    It was also two days before the Diamond Princess cruise ship was quarantined in Japan … and three days before Trump was acquitted in the Senate.

    The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the 2019-nCoV outbreak a global health emergency on January 30, 2020 when China’s death count was 213.  How did they know? Regardless, the next day, President Trump declared the outbreak a public health emergency and restricted travel from China even as the Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Dr. Anthony Fauci, cited “8,000 deaths in the U.S. this season” from influenza.

    Yet, in spite of COVID-19 being deemed infectious enough for WHO to declare a global health emergency, and Trump to declare a public health emergency, American citizens were evacuated from ground zero in Wuhan China and flown to March Air Reserve Base in Southern California.  Additionally, over “300 U.S. citizens and their immediate family members” were transported from the Diamond Princess ship to Travis Air Force Base in Northern California, Lackland Air Force Base in Texas, and the University of Nebraska.

    Next, the Center for Disease Control (CDC) released a COVID-19 infected former Diamond Princess passenger who was “mistakenly” allowed to spend two hours at a San Antonio mall.

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    These are the paradoxes of the Coronavirus pandemic:  We were told the virus was extremely contagious and, yet, just as global and national health emergencies were declared, Americans infected with COVID-19 were repatriated to four (4) separate locations around the United States simultaneously.

    Even now, all across America… bars, restaurants, and small businesses are shuttered as no more than 10 people are allowed to gather together at any given time.  But, American’s First Amendment Right to Free Assembly remains viable at Wal-Mart. No problem there.  And grocery stores are also deemed “essential” around the country – even as “dead bodies are loaded into refrigerated trucks outside New York hospitals”.

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    Indeed, there have been many oddities during the Coronavirus outbreak.  One peculiarity is how the same players consistently appear to advance the narrative; to wit, Bill Gates, John Hopkins University, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), and the World Health Organization (WHO).  These show up almost everywhere Coronavirus tales are told and, perhaps unsurprisingly, participated in the October 2019 Event 201 Pandemic Exercise – a near-exact simulation which took place a mere few weeks before the current COVID-19 outbreak went viral globally.

    Although Bill Gates acknowledged “it’s super painful”, he urged a “10-week nationwide lockdown”  during a CNN Global Town Hall on March 26, 2020 and has since outlined three steps for the U.S. Government’s response to the COVID-19 outbreak to include lockdowntesting, and vaccination.

    But wait… isn’t Bill Gates the computer software guy? Yet he is now advocating for a national lockdown and specific COVID-19 response measures.  How did he get from there to here exactly? Because, at this point, would you be surprised if outer space aliens landed on earth tomorrow with the cure? I know I wouldn’t.

    These frightening times have become surreal. And just as the photos of the dead bodies on the refrigeration truck were absolutely terrifying, endless headlines have increasingly generated more fear.  One prevailing theme tells of how Coronavirus threatens young people and the stories quite often cite the ever-available John Hopkins data:

    A 28-year-old who said she and her boyfriend tested positive for the novel coronavirus is speaking out in hopes to remind the public that young, healthy adults are still at risk.

    Noemi Orofino and her boyfriend Julian, 31, are now in recovery after fighting the COVID-19 virus, the new respiratory illness in which hundreds of thousands have been diagnosed globally, according to data compiled by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University.

    The COVID-19 monster has infected actor Tom Hanks and his wife, various celebrities and athletes, and even recently killed CBS News veteran, Maria Mercader, who was only 54 years old.  Of course, there were some underlying issues:

    CBS News said Mercader fought cancer and related illnesses for more than 20 years, and noted that numerous treatments and surgeries had left her among the most vulnerable to the disease.

    In the video below, Dr. John Ioannidis of Stanford University, provides some insights into the data behind COVID-19, underlying conditions, infectivity and mortality rates, as well as how various countries have handled the “outbreak”.  Dr. Ioannidis also shares some observations as to why Italy was gobsmacked by the virus more than other nations.

    Now, contrast that presentation to the hysteria and emotionalism we’ve seen in the daily reporting of COVID-19.  But, when you think about it, hasn’t hysteria and emotionalism been utilized throughout history to hasten the agendas of collectivism?  In America, the most recent histrionics have been over climate change, identity politics, gun control, Orange Man bad, Russian election hacking, Judge Kavanaugh rape fantasies, Ukraine, impeachment, and… now…  social distancing.

    But where the former fell short, the last one has succeeded; a Hail Mary, as it were.

    Overreaction to the novel virus has had the support of both Left and Right politicos as well as the mainstream and alternative media universes.  And, as a result, Virginians can now be jailed for a year for attending church services with 10 people.  Certainly, COVID-19 has provided new energy to Leftist schemes with brave new headlines in the New York Times such as “The Road to Coronavirus Hell Was Paved by Evangelicals”:

    Today, the hard core of climate deniers is concentrated among people who identify as religiously conservative Republicans. And some leaders of the Christian nationalist movement, like those allied with the Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation, which has denounced environmental science as a “Cult of the Green Dragon,” cast environmentalism as an alternative — and false — theology.

    This denial of science and critical thinking among religious ultraconservatives now haunts the American response to the coronavirus crisis.

    The bipartisan $2.2 trillion Cornonavirus Relief Bill has, once again, bailed out banks and corporations with taxpayer funds.  And, as local businesses fade to black, global distribution networks are energized, and centralized, as companies like Wal-Mart and Amazon have benefited by the new normal.  Soon, the nation’s healthcare system will be nationalized as digital dinero sends paper cash the way of the dinosaur – right along with privacy. Every financial transaction will be tracked and taxed as private ownership of property and goods wanes like Joe Biden’s memory.

    Instead of Coronavirus and COVID-19 the invisible threat could have been called Communistvirus or CHICOM-19.

    In my previous article, I described how Coronavirus was an Orwellian-style PLANdemic that killed the Constitution:

    COVID-19 is a perfect means for a global reset – and in the United States, it had to happen under a Republican president. Why? Because conservative Americans own the guns.

    If all this was happening under Hillary, Biden, Sanders, et al, there would be politicians hanging from street lights in Washington DC. But Trump is the great anesthetizer. For the past couple of years I’ve been writing article after article on how everything we’ve been watching has seemed like a reality TV show; a movie in our mind’s eye.

    So I ask you this: What if Hillary, Trump, Russiagate, Mueller, Ukrainegate, impeachment … all of it… was part of the plan; distractions and cover stories for the build-up to what is happening now?

    It’s perfect. Too perfect.  And the timing was impeccable.

    Even more than that:  It’s too insane not to be on purpose.

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    To be sure, the leftist agenda has progressed according to plan.

    The collectivist activist, Saul Alinsky (1909-1972), in his early 1970s book “Rules for Radicals” included itemized strategies such as “Make the enemy live up to its own book of rules” (# 4) and “The major premise for tactics is the development of operations that will maintain a constant pressure upon the opposition”(#10).  For decades, the Political Left has had a plan and they’ve worked that plan.

    Accordingly, the Left has never held itself accountable as it relentlessly challenged its ideological opponents to meet the demands of their own code.  It’s why Virginia’s Governor Ralph Northam can wear blackface but comedienne Rosanne Barr can’t tweet a Planet of the Apes joke about former presidential aide Valerie Jarrett. It’s why Former President Bill Clinton can stain a blue dress but Judge Brett Kavanaugh is proven guilty of rape by vague recollections, lurid smears, and zero evidence.  It’s how a Republican president was impeached for actions taken years before by a Democrat Vice President.

    Every day of the year, every hour, the pressure is steadily applied by the Collective and their Orwellian Media Ministry of Truth.  One drama unfolds, after another, after another until, today, even the compassion and civility of the American people has been weaponized into six-feet of separation.

    In previous articles I’ve stated that COVID-19 has become the new Terrorism® and it’s stunning how “See Something, Say Something®” has been taken to entirely new levels with Coronavirus:

    A group of armed vigilantes cut down a tree and dragged it across a man’s driveway in Maine to force him to quarantine in his home amid fears he could be infected with the coronavirus, officials said.

    Welcome to the revolution. The individual must now assimilate into the collective.

    The COVID-19 outbreak has proven to be a perfect coup de grace on America, and in ways we’re only beginning to realize.  It has caused We the People to turn on each other under the guise of caring for one anotherOr, Essentialism, twisted from the words of collectivist revolutionary Karl Marx (1814 – 1883):  From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs.

    Here is a personal example of the new age:  A few days ago, a friend sent me some nasty texts because he was told I held a meeting with five other people on private property. He claimed I was minimizing the danger to others. I replied that he was hysterical.

    In a few months, if not weeks, this guy will be begging for Government As God to save him, and, in so doing, I have no doubt he’d sell me out to any governing authority for any reason. We’re about to enter into a real Walking Dead scenario and the Dark Powers will be getting years of mileage out of COVID-19 in every aspect of post-American life.

    Truly, the new age will be delivered by concentrically tightening circles of control – like a noose. The Powers That Be have successfully divided and dispersed what they have deemed a threat:  the American people.  All that remains now is the conquering, and it will come in waves, or seasonal cycles.

    It has begun and will now continue as the month of April 2020 has been canceled.

    April fools.

    From now until further notice, the COVID-19 Overton Window should be compared to watching an action movie in a crowded movie theater. On our screens, we’ll see Trump, like Rambo, kicking ass and taking names.  But challenging the Coronavirus narrative will be akin to mute persons donning tinfoil hats and waving lighted cell phones from the back row.

    The poet T.S. Elliot framed it best:

    This is the way the world ends

    This is the way the world ends

    This is the way the world ends

    Not with a bang but a whimper.

    Hello? Can anyone hear? Anyone?


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 04/03/2020 – 21:20

  • Here's How You Can 3D-Print Masks At Home 
    Here’s How You Can 3D-Print Masks At Home 

    A little more than a month ago, the US Surgeon General tweeted, “Seriously people- STOP BUYING MASKS! They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus, but if healthcare providers can’t get them to care for sick patients, it puts them and our communities at risk!” 

    Now the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is expected to reverse the recommendation on wearing face masks. 

    President Trump suggested on Thursday that new CDC guidelines could require Americans to wear masks. 

    But there’s a problem: Masks are in short supply – the average American can’t find 3M N95s or higher, and if they do, some masks can cost upwards $10 to $20 per. Several months ago, the masks were on Amazon or at Home Depot for $1 per, but huge demand as a pandemic unfolded has extinguished all supply. Even major US hospital systems are lacking masks and other medical equipment as confirmed cases reach 245,658 and deaths breach over the 6,000 level.  

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    For anyone who didn’t heed our warning about purchasing 3M N95 masks in January/February – here’s another option: You can now 3D-print masks at home thanks to the medical students and engineers of Rowan University.

    “Rowan University engineering and medical students have developed a prototype for a durable, lightweight, reusable face mask to augment the supply of face masks during the current shortage of PPE during the COVID-19 outbreak. The mask is provided “as-is” and primarily acts as a mechanical barrier. It is not a replacement for N95 masks. 

    Developed in collaboration with medical professionals, the mask prototype may serve in clinical and field use. If printed, used and maintained correctly, the mask provides a durable, reusable mechanical barrier,” read the Rowan University website.

    “This is part of a humanitarian effort by Rowan,” said Dr. Shreekanth Mandayam, an engineering professor on the university’s Glassboro campus who is leading the project.

    “It’s not just New Jersey and South Jersey where we are. There are plenty of countries around the world where there’s a shortage of PPE. This is a low-cost, quick solution people can use,” Mandayam said. 

    Courtesy of Courier-Post, students at Rowan show how the masks are assembled: 

    In a separate print operation, here’s a timelapse video of the masks are being printed: 

    The printed masks are made from polylactic acid and are not N95 grade. Anyone can slide in HEPA material for the filter — it’s a better option than wearing no mask. 

    3D-printed adult face mask instructions: 

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    Here’s the 3D-printed adult face mask software: 

    We also mentioned guns and ammo are selling out across the country — forcing some people to print 3D guns at home. 


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 04/03/2020 – 21:00

  • It's Time To Track The FDA's Death Toll
    It’s Time To Track The FDA’s Death Toll

    Authored by James Bovard via The Mises Institute,

    The Food and Drug Administration helped turn the coronavirus from a deadly peril into a national catastrophe. Long after foreign nations had been ravaged and many cases had been detected in America, the FDA continued blocking private testing. The FDA continued forcing the nation’s most innovative firms to submit to its command-and-control approach notwithstanding the pandemic.

    South Korean is in a far better situation dealing with coronavirus, because its government did not preemptively cripple private testing.

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    One of the clearest lessons from the current pandemic is that nothing has changed at one of the nation’s most powerful regulatory agencies. The FDA is repeating the same mistakes and showing the same arrogance that I chronicled decades ago in articles for the Wall Street Journal, the American Spectator, and other publications.

    Dr. David Kessler, who became FDA commissioner in 1990, quickly sought to intimidate the companies that his agency regulates. A laudatory Washington Post article concluded, “What he cannot accomplish with ordinary regulation, Kessler hopes to accomplish with fear.”

    Kenneth Feather of the FDA’s drug advertising surveillance branch boasted:

    “We want to say to these companies that you don’t know when or how we’ll strike. We want to eliminate predictability.”

    Dr. Kessler’s heavy-handed tactics battered the American medical device industry—one of the nation’s export superstars. An American Electronics Association survey found that “40% [of medical device companies] reduced the number of U.S. employees because of FDA delays, 29% increased their investment in foreign operations, and 22% moved U.S. jobs overseas.” The survey also found that “57% of the firms said the FDA had applied guidance instructions retroactively to some of their submissions,” as Biomedical Market Newsletter reported.

    The FDA’s stonewalling of new medical devices was sometimes politically motivated. A 1994 report by the Medical Device Manufacturers Association noted, “It is not unusual for [FDA] reviewers to express the position that excessive requests [for additional information] are made because of a concern or fear about how a particular member or members of Congress will react” to the approval of a new device. Sacrificing lives was a small price to pay for bureaucrats to avoid bothersome interrogatories from Capitol Hill.

    FDA employees also sowed fear with a deluge of official Warning Letters (up more than 300 percent since Dr. Kessler took office) to private companies. Once the FDA issues a Warning Letter, it can seize a company’s products or get a court injunction to paralyze its operations. The FDA refused to establish clear guidelines or rules for issuing its letters. As a result, manufacturers could find themselves in a nightmare at the whim of a midlevel FDA employee.

    Dr. Kessler did not spare the First Amendment in his grab for power, and cancer patients and other seriously ill people suffered as a result. Doctors, hospitals, and researchers often discover after FDA approval that a drug to treat one disease is also effective at treating other diseases. Drug companies have routinely publicized this news, alerting physicians to other possible ways to save lives. American Medical Association vice president Roy Schwarz estimated that “off-label” uses of drugs account for up to 60 percent of all drugs prescribed.

    But in 1991 Dr. Kessler prohibited pharmaceutical companies from informing doctors of new uses for approved drugs. He announced that the FDA would enforce the ban with seizures, injunctions, and prosecutions. Though the agency never finalized its proposed regulations, it warned companies that they would face its wrath if they violated the draft proposals. Dr. Kessler, in a speech before the Drug Information Association, said: “I would urge all members of the pharmaceutical industry to take a long and hard look at their promotional practices. I do not expect companies to wait until this guidance becomes final to put their advertising and promotional houses in order.” The question of off-label treatments is becoming a key issue again as doctors search for effective treatments for the COVID-19 coronavirus.

    The FDA even suppressed medical textbooks as part of its attempt to restrict what Americans learned about new treatments. In 1992, the FDA cracked down on a company for distributing, for free, portions of Cancer, Principles and Practice of Oncology. In 1993, the FDA stopped a pharmaceutical company from distributing free copies of The Chemotherapy Source Book—even though the company had already received FDA approval to give away thousands of copies. The FDA claimed that when a drug company gives doctors free textbooks that mention an off-label use of its products the drugs become subject to seizure.

    Under Kessler, the FDA became far more restrictive in approving new drugs and medical devices. Stanford University professor Dale Geringer observed, “In terms of lives, it’s quite possible that the FDA bureaucracy could be killing on the order of three to four times as many people as it saves.” One study estimated that 150,000 heart attack victims may have lost their lives as a result of the FDA’s delays in approving the emergency blood-clotting drug TPA. National Cancer Institute officials accused the FDA of being “mired in a 1960’s philosophy of drug development, viewing all new agents as…poisons.”

    Dr. Kessler bragged that his reforms had given FDA employees “a place where, once again, the good guys could win.” And how could Americans be sure that FDA enforcement agents were the good guys? Because they worked for the government.

    Dr. Kessler declared in 1992: “If members of our society were empowered to make their own decisions…then the whole rationale for the [FDA] would cease to exist.” Kessler derided “freedom of choice” as an illusion unless people are presented only with government-approved choices. But the FDA “liberated” people by shielding them from information, devices, and drugs that could have saved their lives.

    Many Americans could die in the coming weeks and months thanks to the FDA’s blockade on coronavirus testing. Should we consider those victims as martyrs for the principle of bureaucratic supremacy? The FDA’s current commissioner, Stephen Hahn, conceded last week: “There are always opportunities to learn from situations like this one.”

    Perhaps the clearest lesson is that it is time to track the death toll of FDA regulatory debacles.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 04/03/2020 – 20:40

  • "Don't Nag Your Husband, Wear Makeup" During Lockdown, Malaysian Government Tells Women
    “Don’t Nag Your Husband, Wear Makeup” During Lockdown, Malaysian Government Tells Women

    The World Health Organization (WHO) expects COVID-19 cases and deaths in Malaysia to peak in mid-April as there are some signs of curve flattening. There are 3,116 confirmed cases and 50 deaths in the Southeast Asian country, by far, the most in the region. The country has imposed a travel ban, along with an extension of a nationwide lockdown through April 14. 

    During nationwide lockdowns, many countries around the world have put their unique spin on it. For example, Panama, on Wednesday, said men and women will only be allowed to leave their homes for two hours at a time, and on different days. 

    As for Malaysia, the Ministry for Women, Family and Community Development has requested that women do not nag their husbands during the lockdown, reported NPR

    The ministry advised women from being “sarcastic” if their husbands asked them to help out with household chores. The request urged women to look pretty for their spouses, by dressing up and wearing makeup. 

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    The Malaysian All Women’s Action Society called the ministry’s campaign sexist and said they should focus on preventing domestic violence during these unprecedented times. 

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    Women’s Development Department director-general Akhma Hassan said the message is to spread positivity during the lockdowns, according to state-run news agency Bernama. 

    “The approach used was to share methods and practices to maintain positive relationships within the family and during the phase of working from home,” Hassan said in a statement.

     “We have taken note of numerous comments on some tips for women, which were promoted through posters via our social media accounts.

    Here’s how some on social media reacted to the ministry’s request: 

    “Avoid wearing home clothes. Dress up as usual, put on makeup and dress neatly. OMG! This is what Rina, our Minister of Women, Family & Community Development thinks is important during the #COVID19 lockdown?” tweeted @honeyean.

    “How did we go from preventing baby dumping, fighting domestic violence to some variant of the Obedient Wives Club?” wrote @yinshaoloong.

    The Malaysian government should shift its attention to an imminent recession that could result in 2.4 million job losses and a spike in domestic violence cases. 

    We’ve been noting over the last several weeks that the evolution of the virus crisis will crack households across the world, lead to surging domestic violence cases, and possibly social unrest will follow.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 04/03/2020 – 20:20

  • Wuhan Residents Believe COVID-19 Is 100 Times Worse Than Chinese Government Says, Report
    Wuhan Residents Believe COVID-19 Is 100 Times Worse Than Chinese Government Says, Report

    Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

    Residents in Wuhan, the origin of the coronavirus outbreak, have told reporters that “nobody believes the official numbers” being touted by the communist Chinese government, and that the general consensus is it could be 100 times worse than the world is being told.

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    While Whuan is reopening its transport systems and businesses, residents are adamant that they have not been informed of the true scale of the situation, according to Spanish newswire service EFE.

    “There are suspicions that many people died in their homes without being diagnosed and, at first, there were no kits to do the test,” one resident said, adding that “Many people would die, officially, of a cold or some other disease. But there are stories going around of citizens who were made to sign death certificates of relatives without any other explanation.”

    “Nobody in Wuhan believes the official numbers. The real one, only they know,” the resident said, pointing to the sky.

    The report states that while frustration has led to a huge number of residents questioning the official narrative in social media chat groups, it has also led to a massive increase in censorship by the government.

    The Spanish reporters pointed to reports suggesting that the number of urns provided by just 7 funeral homes in Wuhan adds up to between 30,000 and 40,000, while the Chinese government says that less than 4000 people have died from coronavirus.

    A report by the independent Chinese media outlet Caixin estimated that just one of the funeral homes handed out 5,000 urns in one day last week.

    The Spanish journalists attempted to interview workers at one of the funeral homes, but were stopped and turned away by authorities guarding the facilities.

    Other residents told anti-Communist newspaper The Epoch Times that they simply cannot believe the government’s assertions about the death toll.

    “Just exactly how many Wuhan residents have died from the virus if the line at the cemetery is so long?” one resident said, adding “China’s official media reported over 3,000 coronavirus deaths. I think the real figure is at least ten times the official figure, and even 100 times is not impossible.”

    “The citizens of Wuhan believe that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) concealed the true death toll,” the report states.

    It continues “They made this judgment based on two facts: one, the lines outside the funeral home to collect the ashes are very long, and two, the medical standards of European and American countries are higher than those in China. But the reported death rates in these countries are higher than that of China.”

    Another Wuhan resident told Radio Free Asia “They are saying that only a few thousand died here in Wuhan, but does that sound right?”

    Both the US and the UK governments are of the belief that China is hiding the real scale of the pandemic, estimating that it could be 15 to 40 times worse than the communist state admits.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 04/03/2020 – 20:00

  • ‪Duterte Orders Philippine Police To Shoot Dead Virus-Lockdown Violators
    ‪Duterte Orders Philippine Police To Shoot Dead Virus-Lockdown Violators

    The Philippines could be on the brink of social chaos, sparked because the virus pandemic forced the government to lockdown 57 million residents, many of which are living in poverty and left jobless in the last month. Social unrest broke out mid-week in a Manila slum as food and health equipment are in short supply, reported AFP.

    DZRH, Manila Broadcasting Company, posted a chilling video of the social unrest, as low-income folks clashed with government forces during the quarantine.

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    While other reports suggest social unrest could soon erupt in the country, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte made it very clear on government media on April 1 that police will shot any citizen defying the public health order to shelter-in-place.

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    “I will not hesitate. My orders are to the police and military, as well as village officials, if there is any trouble, or occasions where there’s violence and your lives are in danger, shoot them dead,” Duterte said. “Do not intimidate the government. Do not challenge the government. You will lose.”

    “Instead of causing trouble, I’ll send you to the grave,” he warned, adding that COVID-19 is quickly spreading across the country despite a lockdown.

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    According to Johns Hopkins, the Philippines (on Friday morning, April 3) has recorded 3,018 confirmed cases of the virus and 136 deaths – much less than surrounding countries.

    “It is deeply alarming that President Duterte has extended a policy of shoot-to-kill… Deadly, unchecked force should never be referred to as a method to respond to an emergency such as the COVID-19 pandemic,” Amnesty International Philippines said in a statement.

    On Thursday, Philippine National Police Chief Archie Gamboa defied Duterte and said his forces would not shoot people who are violating quarantine orders.

    “Probably the president just overemphasized on implementing the law in this time of crisis,” Gamboa added.

    It appears social unrest is developing in the Philippines – something that we’ve identified in the last several weeks that could be seen in the Western world.

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    The evolution of the virus crisis isn’t just collapsed economies across the globe, but rather the social unrest that follows.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 04/03/2020 – 19:40

  • Jim Grant Warns The Fed "Firemen Are Also The Arsonists"
    Jim Grant Warns The Fed “Firemen Are Also The Arsonists”

    Having put put America straight on what we are facing and the consequences of these unelected and unaccountable officials terrifying experiments, Grant’s Interest Rate Observer editor Jim Grant is back with another warning that irresponsible policy from the Federal Reserve made the coronavirus crisis worse than it had to be.

    As Grant notes, “it took a viral invasion to unmask the weakness of American finance.”

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    Distortion in the cost of credit is the not-so-remote cause of the raging fires at which the Federal Reserve continues to train its gushing liquidity hoses; but, as Grant exclaims, the firemen are also the arsonists echoing his earlier in the week comments that:

    Jay Powell’s seemingly blinkered proclamation that “he sees no prospective consequences with regard the purchasing power of the dollar” as “very concerning” adding more pertinently that he thinks “that wilful ignorance is a clear-and-present-danger for creditors of The United States.”

    Grant continues:

    It was the Fed’s suppression of borrowing costs, and its predictable willingness to cut short Wall Street’s occasional selling squalls, that compromised the U.S. economy’s financial integrity.

    The coronavirus pandemic would have called forth a dramatic response from the central bank in any case. Not even the most conservatively financed economy could long endure an official order to cease and desist commercial activity. But frail corporate balance sheets and overextended markets go far to explain the immensity of the interventions.

    Perhaps never before has corporate America carried more low-grade debt in relation to its earning power than it does today. And rarely have equity valuations topped the ones quoted only weeks ago.

    “John Bull can stand many things, but he can’t stand 2%,” said Walter Bagehot, the Victorian-era editor of the Economist, concerning the negative side effects of a rock-bottom cost of capital. Needing income, investors will take imprudent risks to get it. And if 2% invites trouble, zero percent almost demands it.

    Interest rates are the critical prices that measure investment risk and set the present value of estimated future cash flows. The lower the rates, other things being equal, the higher the prices of stocks, bonds and real estate—and the greater the risk of holding those richly priced assets.

    In 2010 the Federal Reserve set out to lift market prices through a rate-suppression program called quantitative easing. Chairman Ben Bernanke was forthright about his intentions. “Easier financial conditions will promote economic growth,” he wrote at the time. Lower interest rates would make housing more affordable and business investment more desirable. Higher stock prices would “boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending.” The Fed commandeered investment values into the government’s service. It seeded bull markets in the public interest.

    But investment valuations don’t exist to serve a public-policy agenda. Their purpose is to allocate capital. Distort those values and you waste not only money but also time – human heartbeats.

    Like a shark, credit must keep moving. Loans fall due and must be repaid or rolled over (or, in extremis, defaulted on). When the economy stops, as the world’s has effectively done, lenders are likely to demand the cash that not every borrower can produce.

    To resolve the devastating panic of 1825, the Bank of England rendered “every assistance in our power,” as a director of the bank testified, “and we were not upon some occasions over nice.”

    In a still more radical vein, the Fed has set about buying (or supporting the purchase of) commercial paper, residential mortgage-backed securities, Treasurys, investment-grade corporate bonds, commercial mortgage-backed securities and asset-backed securities. It has abolished bank reserve requirements. Through a new direct-lending program, the Fed has become a kind of commercial bank.

    If not for the buildup of the financial excesses of the past 10 years, fewer such monetary kitchen sinks would likely have had to be deployed. No pandemic explains the central bank’s massive infusions into the so-called repo market that followed this past September’s unscripted spike in borrowing costs. For still obscure reasons, a banking system that apparently is more than adequately capitalized was unable to meet a sudden demand for funds on behalf of the dealers who warehouse immense portfolios of government debt.

    The superabundance of Treasury securities is the spoor of America’s trillion-dollar boom-time deficits. Persistently low interest rates have facilitated that borrowing, as they have the growth of private-equity investing (ordinarily with lots of leverage), the rise of profitless startups, the raft of corporate share repurchases, and the unnatural solvency of loss-making companies that have funded themselves in the Fed’s most obliging debt markets.

    For savers in general, and the managers of public pension funds in particular, lawn-level interest rates confer no similar gains. On the contrary: To earn $50,000 in annual interest at a 5% government bond yield requires $1 million of capital; to earn the same income at a 1% yield demands $5 million of capital. To try to circumvent that forbidding arithmetic, income-famished investors buy stocks, junk bonds, real estate, what have you. It worked as long as the bubble inflated.

    In a bubble, performance is the name of the investment game. Over the past 10 years, skeptics of our debt-financed prosperity have had to fall in line. To keep up with the Joneses, fiduciaries have sought an edge in lower-quality assets. Managers of investment-grade bond portfolios dabbled in junk bonds. Junk-bond investors slummed it in lower-rated junk or in the kind of bank debt that is senior in name but structured without the once-standard protective legal fine print.

    Investing at positive nominal yields, Americans are still comparatively lucky. The holders of some $10.9 trillion of yen-, euro- and Swiss franc-denominated bonds are paying for the privilege of lending. “Investors seeking safety were prepared to face a guaranteed loss when holding the debt to maturity,” was how the Financial Times last summer tried to explain the nearly inexplicable.

    Negative nominal bond yields are a 4,000-year first, according to Sidney Homer’s “A History of Interest Rates,” republished for a fourth edition with co-author Richard Sylla in 2005. Topsy-turvy investment-grade bond markets aren’t without precedent, but the extent of the upheaval today is startling. If adversity is the test of the quality of a senior security, as old-time doctrine held, segments of today’s corporate bonds and tradable bank loans have already flunked. On March 20, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, the volume of such loans quoted below 80 cents on the dollar topped the peak distress level of 2008. While the panic subsequently abated, many supposedly senior corporate claims are proving to be fair-weather investments, not so different from common equity.

    Deceived by ultralow interest rates, Americans borrow and lend in the kind of false economy that candidate Donald Trump properly condemned in 2016. Covid-19 will sooner or later beat a retreat. For the sake of honest prices and true values, it would be well if the central bankers did the same.

    Simply put, Grant concludes, credit and equity markets “have become administered government-set indicators, rather than sensitive- and information-rich prices… and we are paying the price for that through the misallocation of resources.”

    Grant ends on a hanging chad of a rhetorical question “what do corrections correct? Is there no salutary role for recessions and bear markets?”

    Of course there is, he answers, “they separate the sound from the unsound, they separate the well-financed from the over-leveraged and if we never have these episodes of economic pain, we will be much the worse for it.”


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 04/03/2020 – 19:20

  • "I Found The Source Of COVID-19…"
    “I Found The Source Of COVID-19…”

    After living and working in China for over 10 years and speaking fluent Chinese, you get to know a society pretty well… and let me tell you this – if you’re applauding or admiring the political leadership of China, you’re all deluded beyond belief.

    That is how “laowhy86” begins this succinct  video exploring the ‘facts’ – not conspiracies – behind the source of the coronavirus that is ravaging the earth.

    “China doesn’t operate like ‘your’ country,” he warns, “the Chinese government is a face- and greed-driven government that relies on lies and bullying to maintain leadership.”

    Furthermore, he notes, the Chinese government layers are “broken and fragile” and so it didn’t surprise him when he was able to follow breadcrumbs – as begun by our inquisition about the roles that certain individuals played in Wuhan – to discover the “very suspicious” fact that the Wuhan Bio lab had a job opening from November 18, 2019, asking for scientists to come and research the relationship between the coronavirus and bats.

    However, after ZeroHedge was permanently suspended from Twitter for daring to suggest anything but the official narrative handed down, laowhy86 notes that another job opening appeared on December 24th (remember this is before any news broke of the virus publicly), which basically says ‘we’ve discovered a new and terrible virus and would like to recruit people to come deal with it’…

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    So, he decided to dig a little bit more into the staff… and that’s where it gets interesting… as he discovers silenced scientists, disappeared doctors, and constant propaganda…

    “…it’s quite clear that the Chinese government needs to close its mouth and acknowledge that this virus did in fact come from Wuhan, Hubei, China.”

    As he concludes,

    “I did not get into any conspiracy theories, I’m not talking about bioweapons or biolabs; this is all public information on the Chinese internet published by researchers, scientists, and doctors.”

    Despite the CCP’s all-powerful ability to hide everything it can, the truth usually finds its way out – the Chinese government should cover their tracks better next time if they’re going to blame this on Italy or the US or whatever is convenient to your narrative.”

    “…the CCP’s incompetence and its understanding of the danger of the virus on a pure scientific level – and then going on to silence those who wanted to warn the public… and letting the virus spread for months… is the reason the Chinese government must be held accountable!

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    Watch the full breakdown below:

    What is really fascinating, however, is that while this thread was dismissed and censored as utter nonsense just two months ago (and got many banned for even daring to mention it), none other than David Ignatius, The Washington Post’s favorite establishment columnist, is now questioning China’s narrative and raising his own doubts as to the origin of the virus, writing that …as China dished wild, irresponsible allegations of its own.

    On March 12, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lijian Zhao charged in a tweet: “It might be [the] US army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan.”

    He retweeted an article that claimed, without evidence, that U.S. troops might have spread the virus when they attended the World Military Games in Wuhan in October 2019.

    A competing theory has been gathering momentum – of an accidental lab release of bat coronavirus…

    Less than 300 yards from the seafood market is the Wuhan branch of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Researchers from that facility and the nearby Wuhan Institute of Virology have posted articles about collecting bat coronaviruses from around China, for study to prevent future illness. Did one of those samples leak, or was hazardous waste deposited in a place where it could spread?

    Richard Ebright, a Rutgers microbiologist and biosafety expert, told me in an email that “the first human infection could have occurred as a natural accident,” with the virus passing from bat to human, possibly through another animal. But Ebright cautioned that it “also could have occurred as a laboratory accident, with, for example, an accidental infection of a laboratory worker.” He noted that bat coronaviruses were studied in Wuhan at Biosafety Level 2, “which provides only minimal protection,” compared with the top BSL-4.

    Ebright described a December video from the Wuhan CDC that shows staffers “collecting bat coronaviruses with inadequate [personal protective equipment] and unsafe operational practices.” Separately, I reviewed two Chinese articles, from 2017 and 2019, describing the heroics of Wuhan CDC researcher Tian Junhua, who while capturing bats in a cave “forgot to take protective measures” so that “bat urine dripped from the top of his head like raindrops.”

    Ignatius unapologetically admits that what’s increasingly clear is that the initial “origin story” – that the virus was spread by people who ate contaminated animals at the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan – is shaky.

    “Shaky” indeed, David!

     


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 04/03/2020 – 19:00

  • Facial Recognition Companies Profit From COVID-19 By Adding Thermal Imaging
    Facial Recognition Companies Profit From COVID-19 By Adding Thermal Imaging

    Via MassPrivateI blog,

    The biometrics industry has never been known to miss an opportunity to make a profit. Especially when it comes at the expense of everyone’s privacy.

    Since the outbreak of COVID-19, facial recognition companies have been hard at work creating a new sales pitch that will allow them to maximize their profits.

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    Across the globe, facial recognition companies are hard at work trying to convince politicians, law enforcement and the public that thermal imaging cameras will help stop the spread of COVID-19.

    Forbes.com is all too eager to jump on the thermal imaging bandwagon, claiming that Athena Security’s facial recognition/thermal imaging software can scan 1000 people per hour.

    “With Covid-19, you see the problem at airports today,” Athena Security CEO Lisa Falzone explains. “Passengers are waiting in lines to manually take their temperatures, which slows traffic down. With our technology, we can analyze 1000 people per hour.”

    In fact, Athena Security has gone so far as to combine fever detection, facial recognition and gun detection into an all-in-one screening system.

    “Our Fever Detection COVID19 Screening System is now a part of our platform along with our gun detection system which connects directly to your current security camera system to deliver fast, accurate threat detection – including guns, knives, and aggressive action. Our system can also alert you to falls, accidents, and unwelcome visitors.”

    As Forbes.com points out, what makes Athena’s software so unique is their ability to send out real-time alerts to authorities.

    “What’s different about Athena’s system, explains Falzone, is its ability to send out immediate alerts to the appropriate parties, who can then make an informed decision on how to act.”

    The scariest thing about the proliferation of facial recognition/thermal imaging cameras is it gives law enforcement near god-like powers to identify and quarantine anyone they choose.

    Real-time facial recognition being offered to universities and hospitals for free

    The biometrics industry has put a new spin on marketing by offering universities and hospitals free real-time facial recognition.

    A recent Jumio press release revealed that they are donating their facial recognition identity verification services to U.S. and U.K. hospitals and universities.

    “Starting today, Jumio will provide free identity verification services through our AI-powered, fully automated solution, Jumio Go, to any qualifying organization directly involved in helping with COVID-19 relief including (but not limited to): Hospitals and Universities. This free offer is powered by Jumio Go, our real-time, fully automated identity verification solution.”

    DroneUp suggests that law enforcement could use thermal imaging drones as an excuse to monitor people for COVID-19.

    “Assurance is key in uncertain times. That is why DroneUp is functioning in conjunction with FAA regulatory precautions as we collaborate with state and local officials to ensure safety for all. We strongly encourage our fellow drone operators to also become keenly aware of the protocol and regulations as the pandemic evolves.”

    That same scenario is being played out across the country, with more than 1,500 police departments using drones to monitor the public. In Michigan, the Hillsdale Sheriff’s Office recently purchased a DJI Matrice 210 drone equipped with thermal imaging.

    Three police departments in particular have taken drone surveillance to a whole new level.

    The Owensboro Police Department in Kentucky has created a 10-member thermal imaging drone surveillance team.

    “The Owensboro Police Department recently created a 10-member Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Team who were trained and certified to fly the department’s $2,300 drone inside city limits.”

    In Texas, the Public Safety Unmanned Response Team has partnered with the Airborne Incident Response Team to help expand police drone surveillance.

    “The objective is to create a robust network of drone responders and geographic information systems experts capable of rendering direct assistance and location intelligence during complex emergencies, rapidly expanding incidents, and major disasters. Increased communication and cooperation are essential to the successful deployment of drones and other unmanned systems in support of public safety operations,” said Travis Calendine, chairperson of the Public Safety Unmanned Response Team North Texas.

    The Chula Vista Police Department (CVPD), arguably the most famous drone surveillance police department in the country, is creating a 52 square mile drone surveillance zone.

    “The CVPD can proactively cover about 17 of the 52 square miles of our city with drones launched from two sites. Our goal this year is to add launch sites to provide 100% aerial support coverage during daylight hours 7 days a week by the end of the year,” Vern Sallee, patrol operations captain said. 

    The worldwide fear of the cornavirus is so widespread that MIT, Harvard and The Mayo Clinic have designed a new COVID-19 warning app called “Private Kit.”

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    credit: Private Kit

    As Fast Company explains, Private Kit will allegedly alert a user when someone infected with the COVID-19 virus is close.  Maybe they could use this app to alert them when a “Walking Dead” zombie is close by?

    “Researchers just released an app in beta that alerts people when they come into contact with someone who’s been diagnosed with COVID-19, potentially reducing the virus’s spread if the app is downloaded by a large chunk of the population.”

    Of course there is a catch to using Private Kit: users will lose their privacy.

    “After you download the app and consent to sharing your location (which is necessary in order for the app to work), the app starts tracking you. Should you cross paths with someone who’s been diagnosed with the coronavirus who also has the app, you’ll receive a notification telling you when and for how long.”

    Facial recognition companies like Veriff show how little they care about everyone’s privacy by offering universities and health care providers 1 million free identity verification’s.

    “Potential beneficiaries of free verification’s range from universities who need to verify people taking exams to marketplaces that have volunteers who help people in need and to registries that could tackle fake accounts and set up reliable databases about people in quarantine. But also, digital health care service providers, organizations fighting fake news and beyond.”

    If corporations, politicians and law enforcement can convince an apathetic public that facial recognition, thermal imaging and gun detection cameras can keep us safe, then our privacy will vanish before COVID-19 runs its course.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 04/03/2020 – 18:40

  • Google Search Activity Shows The U.S. Is Entering A Depression
    Google Search Activity Shows The U.S. Is Entering A Depression

    A record 6.6 million people applied for unemployment benefits this week as the coronavirus crisis forced the biggest number of layoffs around the U.S. in history, a roughly 83-sigma event and one which visualized looks as follows:

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    And with JPMorgan now predicting a 7mm print next week, the bedrock of the US economy – plentiful jobs – is suddenly imploding, as the latest google searches for “Unemployment benefits” shows.

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    Which reminded us that in times of stress, Google trends is a wonderful resource into what is on people’s minds. SEMrush, a data analytics company, has been tracking Google search volume and found the public’s curiosity over the “doomsday” items exploded between February 20 and March 20, 2020: “unemployment” grew by 400% and, similarly, “recession” grew by 376%.

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    Here are some other phrases that triggered spikes in online search activity, which show that the global financial crisis of 2008 was a simple garden-variety slowdown by comparison, and that what is taking place now is nothing short of a depression:

    “How do I file for unemployment”: Since March 14, there has been a 900% increase in search volume

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    “Will i get fired”: Since March 19, there has been a 233% increase in search volume

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    “Can I file for unemployment online”: Since March 13, there has been a 614% increase in search volume

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    “When will I get my unemployment check”: Since March 20, there has been a 104% increase in search volume

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    “What if I can’t pay my mortgage”: Since March 12, there has been a 104% increase in search volume

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    “How can I pay my rent”: Since February 4, there has been a 194% increase in search volume

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    Finally, in addition to jobs, there’s money. Or rather, there isn’t: searches for “Business Loans” have exploded, and they will surge more if the banks don’t figure out how to make the small and medium business bailout loan available to all.

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    But it’s not just America – the entire world is scrambling for funding – Jamaicans are the most interested in a business loan with a Google search popularity score of 100. South Africa comes second with a score of 59 followed by Nigeria with a score of 56. Other countries with more interest in business loans include Australia (54), Singapore (49), India (47 ), New Zealand (43), UK (42) Pakistan (42) and the United States (40).

    The above hardly needs much commentary: not only the US, but the entire world is rapidly sliding into depression. The only question is just how will global government make sure this crisis, the biggest in our lifetimes, does not go to waste.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 04/03/2020 – 18:20

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 3rd April 2020

  • Putin & Trump Versus The New World Order: The Final Battle
    Putin & Trump Versus The New World Order: The Final Battle

    Authored by Sylvain LaForest via OrientalReview.org,

    We live in exciting times.

    The unknown that lays ahead for all of us is both exhilarating and scary. Exhilarating in the long term, but rather scary in the short term. All empires eventually die and we’re in the terminal phase of the New World Order that will not recover from the Russian roulette game it has been playing, for Vladimir Putin handed it a loaded gun and it pulled the trigger.

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    The last few weeks put everything in place for the last battle. There are so many different facts and events, left and right, and I will try to do my best to remain methodical in this complicated expose. Bare with me, I’ve been struggling for three weeks with this article because of the insane amount of additional details that each day provides. It might have been a wrong time to quit smoking, but I enjoy a good challenge.

    Dropping dollars

    A little context is required. The New World Order concept is simply the wish of a handful of international bankers that want to economically and politically rule the whole planet as one happy family. It started in 1773 and if it went through important changes over the years, but the concept and objective haven’t changed an iota. Unfortunately for them, international banks that have been looting the planet through the US dollar since 1944 are now threatened by hyperinflation, as their printing machine has been rotating for years to cover their absurd spendings to sustain oil and resource wars that they’ve all ultimately lost. In order to prevent this upcoming hyperinflation, they generated a virus attack on four countries (China, Iran, Italy and now the United States) to spread panic in the population, with the precious help of their ignominious medias. Even though this corona virus isn’t different from any new viruses that attack humans every year, the media scare pushed people to voluntarily isolate themselves through fear and terror. Some lost their jobs, companies are going bankrupt, the panic created a stock exchange crash that emptied wallets and dried assets, resulting in a few trillion virtual dollars off the market to release pressure off the currency.

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    So far, so good, but everything else went wrong in this desperate and ultimate banzai. The top virologist on the planet confirmed that chloroquine was being used by the Chinese with spectacular results to cure patients, then he improved his magic potion by adding a pneumonic antibacterial called azythromicin, and saved everyone of his first 1000 cases, but one. Donald Trump immediately imposed the same treatment through a fight against his own Federal Drug Administration, bought and owned by the deep state. This forced all medias to talk about Dr Didier Raoult’s Miracle Elixir, signing the death warrant on our confidence in all Western governments, their medical agencies, the World Health Organization, and medias that were trying to destroy the impeccable doctor’s reputation, while inventing sudden «dangerous side effects» of a nearly inoffensive drug that has been used for 60 years to treat malaria. Not so far away in Germany, internationally praised Dr Wolfgand Wodarg noted that the engineered panic was totally useless, since this virus isn’t any different than the others that affect us every years. This has been an amazing victory for Trump and the general population on social medias, whom exposed together the pathological lies of the official communication channels of every New World Order country. De facto, the credibility’s of these puppet governments have vanished in the air, and from the eye of the storm, Italy will surely exit the EU right after the crisis, which will trigger a domino effect running through every EU countries and NATO members. My friends, globalism is dead and ready for cremation.

    Digging the abyss

    International bankers couldn’t see it coming in 1991, when they dominated 95% of the planet after the fall of the Soviet Union. It seemed that nothing could halt their ultimate mission to complete their Orwellian dream: destroy a few countries in the Middle East, enlarge Israel, and get the total control over the world oil market, the last piece of their Xanadu puzzle that they’ve been working on for a whole century, starting with the Balfour declaration in 1917.

    When Vladimir Putin got charge of Russia, there was no sign that he would do better than the drunk he had replaced. An ex KGB officer seemed like a choice more driven by nostalgia rather than ideology, but Putin had many more assets going for him than first met the eyes: patriotism, humanism, a sense of justice, cunning ruse, a genius economist friend named Sergey Glazyev whom openly despised the New World Order, but above all, he embodied the reincarnation of the long lost Russian ideology of total political and economical independence. After a few years spent at draining the Russian swamp from the oligarchs and mafiosis that his stumbling predecessor had left in his trail of empty bottles, Vlad rolled his sleeves and got to work.

    Because his opponents had been looting the planet for 250 years through colonization insured by a military dominance, Vlad knew that he had to start by building an invincible military machine. And he did. He came up with different types of hypersonic missiles that can’t be stopped, the best defensive systems on the planet, the best electronic jamming systems, and the best planes. Then to make sure that a nuclear war wouldn’t be an option, he came up with stuff which nightmares are made of, such as the Sarmat, the Poseidon and the Avangard, all unstoppable and able to destroy any country in a matter of a few hours.

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    Russian President Vladimir Putin, center, gestures while speaking during an annual meeting with top military officials in the National Defense Control Center in Moscow, December 24, 2019. Putin said that Russia is the only country in the world that has hypersonic weapons even though its military spending is a fraction of the U.S. military budget. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, left, and Chief of General Staff of Russia Valery Gerasimov, right, attend the meeting.

    With a new and unmatched arsenal, he could proceed to defeat any NATO force or any of its proxies, as he did starting in September 2015 in Syria. He proved to every country that independence from the NWO banking system was now a matter of choice. Putin not only won the Syrian war, but he won the support of many New World Order countries that suddenly switched sides upon realizing how invincible Russia had become. On a diplomatic level, it also got mighty China by its side, and then managed to protect independent oil producers such as Venezuela and Iran, while leaders like Erdogan of Turkey and Muhammad Ben Salman of Saudi Arabia decided to side with Russia, who isn’t holding the best poker hand, but the whole deck of cards.

    Ending in the conclusion that Putin now controls the all-mighty oil market, the unavoidable energy resource that lubricates economies and armies, while the banksters’ NATO can only watch, without any means to get it back. With the unbelievable results that Putin has been getting in the last five years, the New World Order suddenly looks like a house of cards about to crumble. The Empire of Banks has been terminally ill for five years, but it’s now on morphine, barely realizing what’s going on.

    Tragedy and hope

    Since there is no hope in starting WW3 which is lost in advance, the last banzai came out of the bushes in the shape of a virus and the ensuing media creation of a fake pandemic. The main focus was to avoid a catastrophic hyperinflation of the humongous mass of US dollar that no one wants anymore, to have time to implement their virtual world crypto-currency, as if the chronically failing bankers still have any legitimacy to keep controlling our money supplies. It seemed at first that the plan could work. That’s when Vlad took out his revolver to start the Russian roulette game and bankers blew their brains out upon the pressure on the trigger.

    He called a meeting with OPEP and killed the price of oil by refusing to lower Russia’s production, taking the barrel to under 30 dollars. Without any afterthought and certainly even less remorse, Vlad killed the costly Western oil production. All the dollars that had been taken out of the market had to be re-injected by the Fed and other central banks to avoid a downslide and the final disaster. By now, our dear bankers are out of solutions.

    In the meantime, Trump also poked at the tie-wearing gangsters. While medias avoided the corona-killing chloroquine subject, an old pill designed to cure malaria, Trump imposed to the FDA the use of this life-saving drug on US infected patients. Medias didn’t have any choice but to start talking about it, which ignited a chain reaction: big pharmas CEO’s were fired because they had just lost the vaccine contract, countries like Canada looked like genocidal fools for not using the cheap and inoffensive medication, while a most outrageous criminal act by a government was exposed in full light: the Macron government had proclaimed in January 2020 that chloroquine was harmful and had restrained its use, just a couple of weeks before the burst of the fake pandemic! Russian roulette is a popular game in Western governments these days around.

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    On Saturday March 28th, Russia announced its own corona-killing brew, based on Dr Raoult’s magic potion. Yet another Cossack blow, this time to the big pharmas jugular vein, while most Western countries now have to implement the good doctor’s treatment, or face the slap of a Russian pill coming to save its citizen. Putin is in the lifesaving business these days: in the last week of March, he sent 15 military planes filled with doctors and supplies directly to North Italy, after an aid plane from China was blocked by the Czech Republic. We’re about to learn that European countries fear that China or Russia finds the truth in the Lombardy region, where people are not dying from some corona bug, but probably from a deadly cocktail hybrid from two earlier vaccines for meningitis and influenza, that they were injected in separate vaccination campaigns.

    The punchline

    I said earlier that everyday brings amazing news. Well on Sunday March 29th, the most stunning of them all fell like a ton of bricks on social medias: confined onlookers learned that Trump had taken control over the Federal Reserve, that is now handled by two representatives of the Treasury of State. Of all the crazy news within the last month, this is by far the best and most shocking. After three years in power, Trump has finally fulfilled his electoral promise of taking private banks out of the US public affairs, ending a century of exploitation of the American citizens. He has put the infamous Blackrock investment group to start buying important corporations for the Fed, meaning that he’s nationalizing chunks of the economy, while avoiding the crash of the market by implicating important private investors in the deal.

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    President Donald Trump gestures with Jerome Powell, his nominee to become chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve at the White House in Washington, U.S., November 2, 2017

    This utmost daring move comes at a crucial point in time, and faces us with the realization that Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump are united and have taken humanity to the crossroads of the New World Order and freedom. As I have stated often before, I thought that the world would deeply change between 2020 and 2024, because these would be the last 4 years of these two heroes in political power of their nations.

    The New World Order is facing the two most powerful countries on the planet, and this fake pandemic changed everything. It showed how desperate the banksters are, and if we don’t want to end up with nuclear warheads flying in both directions, Putin and Trump have to stop them now.

    Terminate the BIS, the World Bank, the IMF, the European Central bank, the EU, NATO, now. Our world won’t be perfect, but it might get much better soon.

    Easter resurrection is coming. This might get biblical.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 04/03/2020 – 02:45

  • Toilet Paper Producers Roll'ing In The Dough
    Toilet Paper Producers Roll’ing In The Dough

    Because not only food, but – most importantly – toilet paper is being stockpiled during the worldwide coronavirus pandemic, producers of precious TP are on a roll.

    Sales of toilet paper in the U.S. rose by an estimated 60 percent in March compared to the same month last year.

    As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz notes, the increase was more than double that in Italy, which was hit by the outbreak earlier than the U.S. There, revenues generated with bathroom tissue rose by 140 percent.

    Infographic: Toilet Paper Producers Roll’ing in the Dough | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    The Statista Consumer Market Outlook compared data and calculated estimates for 16 countries to show that revenues had risen most in Italy, followed by Vietnam and Australia. In other countries hit hard by the virus, for example Spain and France, the sale of toilet paper rose by 82 percent and 30 percent, respectively.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 04/03/2020 – 02:10

  • "Borders Matter" – Austria's COVID-19 Chronicles
    “Borders Matter” – Austria’s COVID-19 Chronicles

    Authored by Elisabeth Sabaditsch-Wolff via The Gatestone Institute,

    Week 1 in a country in complete shutdown. Austria has been at the forefront of forcing its citizens to “shelter in place” by enacting measures so severe that even the country’s elderly cannot remember anything similar.

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    To snuff out a virus that originated in China in November and has since made its way around the world, roughly a month ago, the Austrian government, led by Chancellor Sebastian Kurz, thankfully heeded a dire warning by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, took hard a look at Austria’s neighboring country, Italy, and immediately enacted a first set of measures, followed by the drastic rules mentioned above, that were first extended until April 13 and stepped up on March 30.

    The new measures include wearing compulsory masks when grocery shopping, which, in due course, will be extended to the wearing masks when outdoors at any time. In addition, vulnerable men and women, that is, those whose immune systems are compromised, are required to stay home, with their salaries covered by the government. The chancellor warned the population that “what we are witnessing right now is the quiet before the storm” and added that if measures are loosened, they will start with the opening of shops and some restaurants; universities and schools will follow at the very end of this process. Schools in Austria are therefore unlikely to reopen before the fall, although there are already extensive courses online.

    Noteworthy findings turned up, however, such as what public issues matter and what do not:

    Borders matter. 

    For many years, Europeans have been told by their leaders that borders could not be closed to curb illegal migration due to the Schengen Agreement, to the detriment of security in European countries. Suddenly, with the numbers of COVID-19 deaths rising, and with the spread of the virus traced across Europe, border controls, barriers and other measures were swiftly introduced. The United States followed suit in closing its borders with Canada and Mexico. Strict border security helps to stop the virus from spreading. In the 14th century, Polish King Casimir III knew what to do in order to save his country from the plague, which had spread from China to Europe and killed countless millions of people. Poland was less affected by the plague because King Casimir isolated his country, closed borders and quarantined the border regions. Border security is health security.

    Freedom of speech matters. 

    The Austrian government has installed a “ministry of truth” in the office of the chancellor, staffed by police cadets. In times of crisis, the search for the truth is more challenging than ever. Abundant propaganda, fake news and rumors are disseminated, even by the governments (here and here). But a cow remains a cow even if it is called a sheep. The Austrian government and the UK government have set up special task forces to weed out so-called fake news and “‘defend the country’ from misinformation” with respect to anything concerning Covid-19.

    Andreas Unterberger, Austria’s most widely read political blogger, notes:

    “It is absolutely stunning that a large police unit has now started to officiate in the Chancellery….The government acts as if it were in possession of the absolute truth amid a sea of lies and half-truths. On the contrary, the opposite is true… whenever a government got its hands on truth control, it has massively abused it within a very short time to gag and ban critical and oppositional voices. Once they have the power to control opinion, it is a massive temptation for those in power to use it in the self-interest of a government. The government ministers fail to realize the most important connection: the more a government carries out opinion control, the more people inevitably trust alternative sources of information, and not the government officials or those financed by the government.”

    Sadly, not just the government but also Amazon, has discreetly eliminated a sizeable list of books from its listing, citing “dubious” information or even “conspiracy theories” on the defense against or even cure for Covid-19. Who decides what is a conspiracy theory? Amazon? Where has the marketplace of ideas disappeared to? Where, in fact, is the marketplace?

    Sovereignty and nationalism matter. 

    The president of the American Freedom Alliance, Karen Siegemund, notes:

    “Notice how each country – country! – took upon itself its right to sovereign action to protect its citizens.
    Italy imposed quarantines; Austria closed its borders and implemented various restrictions on gatherings and mandated closures of entertainment venues, restaurants etc. Even Germany has now closed its borders.
    Borders in the context of Europe is an astounding thing, and it’s heartbreaking that it took a virus, and the deaths it’s left in its wake, rather than the years-long invasions for [the countries] to assert sovereignty, and to finally, finally, turn to protecting their citizens.

    “‘Europe’ in the form of the European Union has been silent. The United Nations does not even seem to be speaking out although, in a rational world they would — and should — be calling for “Crimes against humanity” charges to be brought against China. That silence under these circumstances is simply further proof of the UN’s uselessness at best, and of the EU’s utter irrelevance.

    “It is nations putting the health, safety and security of their people above all else that will stem the spread of this virus; the nightmare is that it took this pandemic to wake governments up to the primacy of their people as the core of their responsibility.”

    Leadership matters. 

    Whether the greatly differing measures taken by continental Europe or those in the United Kingdom are successful remains to be seen, but leadership in times of crisis is crucial. In the UK, it is prime minister Boris Johnson who on March 3 launched a four-step plan to combat the outbreak in the UK, later backing away from herd immunity. New and tough measures, including a lockdown, were later implemented. In Austria, Chancellor Sebastian Kurz exhibited tough leadership. It is too early to assess whether the government is taking the “right” steps; however, remaining calm and in control are key to garnering support even among his critics. Kurz is adept at team-building, by including all members of his government as well as by keeping the political opposition informed. This approach has led to bi-partisan support for all implemented measures. In the United States, President Donald J. Trump has been personally leading an extremely popular daily televised press briefing with members of his Covid-19 task force.

    Receding into the background have been topics such as climate change, Greta Thunberg, and Fridays for Future. Health measures have clearly taken precedence over kids cutting school. Nevertheless, many have always been adept at “never letting a crisis go to waste” (Rahm Emanuel) and at using one to do things that could not be done before; they will probably be back to doing their best to see what they can land in their “dream catcher”.

    Armed forces matter. 

    Germany has mobilized its military to assist in maintaining public order, with German Minister of Defense Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer reassuring Germans that “in these difficult times, the citizens can rely on their Bundeswehr.” Despite being financially starved in recent years, the Austrian armed forces were mobilized early on in the crisis to assist the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in repatriating Austrians from abroad, providing support in logistical tasks such as stocking grocery stores, and relieving police by protecting foreign embassies in Vienna. The move proved right the rejection of the 2013 referendum to end conscription and introduce a professional army.

    Civil vigilance matters. 

    A particularly worrisome trend is having politicians using crises to increase the power of the state — a terrifying thought. Although in this instance, people actually did need to be quarantined to prevent the rolling spread of the virus, the widespread lockdowns in the United StatesEurope and in Israel — which, in Austria’s case, took place after unprecedented accelerated parliamentary discussion — are likely bound for even more debate after the return to normalcy. Also potentially problematic is the British Coronavirus Bill, which “will enable the police and immigration officers to detain a person, for a limited period, who is, or may be, infectious and to take them to a suitable place to enable screening and assessment”. In a different situation, the words “may be” could be ominous in their broadness. For now, however, we should be thankful to our governments for trying to contain a runaway virus to which we have no immunity until some form of limiting its medical and economic harm can be found.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 04/03/2020 – 01:35

  • March Jobs Preview: The First Negative Print In Ten Years, And Then All Hell Breaks Loose
    March Jobs Preview: The First Negative Print In Ten Years, And Then All Hell Breaks Loose

    As RanSquawk notes, the data for March are already stale, given the release of the timelier initial jobless claims data, which showed another record high number of claims, and some 10 million laid off workers in the past 2 weeks. Additionally, the survey period of the BLS Employment Situation Report runs through the month ending 12th March, and therefore does not capture the full effect of the coronavirus disruptions on the US labor market, with “stay at home” orders being issued only after the 19th March in some US states.

    Still, even though it captures only the slowdown in the first half of the month, the March jobs report will almost certainly show a decline in monthly payrolls – the first since Sept 2010 – and breaking the longest stretch of positive payroll prints on record.

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    That said none of that matters: with the Fed having now gone full tilt in perpetuity no matter what the data says, we know that the data for the next 3-6 months will be catastrophic, with Goldman predicting 15% unemployment in Q2, meaning that in the next two months tens of millions of people will lose their job.

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    As such what the BLS reports tomorrow is completely meaningless. Still, for what it’s worth, here’s what Wall Street expects:

    • Non-farm Payrolls: Exp. -100K, Prev. +273K
    • Unemployment Rate: Exp. 3.8%, Prev. 3.5%
    • Avg. Earnings M/M: Exp. 0.2%, Prev. 0.3%
    • Avg. Earnings Y/Y: Exp. 3.0%, Prev. 3.0%
    • Avg. Work Week Hours: Exp. 34.1, Prev. 34.4
    • Private Payrolls: Exp. -163k, Prev. +228k
    • Manufacturing Payrolls: Exp. -20k, Prev. +15k
    • Government Payrolls: Prev. +45k
    • U6 Unemployment Rate: Prev. +7.0%
    • Labor Force Participation: Prev. 63.4%

    Speaking of Goldman, the bank estimates nonfarm payrolls declined 180k in March, below consensus of -100k. In addition to employment surveys falling into contractionary territory and jobless claims rebounding dramatically, sharp declines in commuting patterns in both New York City and Seattle indicate a sizeable drag from the coronavirus in those MSAs during the survey week. Goldman also estimate declining payrolls in the food services, accommodation, recreation services, social assistance, and temporary help subindustries (both in these cities and nationwide). Goldman also thinks the unemployment rate rose three tenths to 3.8%, with risks skewed towards a larger increase (consensus 3.8%). Jobless claims data indicate that the pace of layoffs increased sharply and an NPR/PBS poll found that 18% of employees were laid off or had their hours reduced. The silver lining, at least for those who still have jobs, is that the average hourly earnings increased 0.2% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year, reflecting negative calendar effects but a possible composition shift towards higher-paid workers (consensus also +0.2%/+3.0%).

    And as noted above, while Goldman looks for a weaker-than-consensus report tomorrow, the March employment numbers are already fairly stale and insignificant in our view, “because the April report will likely show job losses in the millions.”

    Here are some general observations courtesy of RanSquawk:

    TREND RATES: The trend rates are meaningless going into the data, given disruptions caused by coronavirus. After the release of the February data, the 3-month average trend rate was at 243k (prev. 239k); 6-month was 231k (prev. 220k); 12-month at 201k (prev. 178k).

    ADP EMPLOYMENT: ADP reported 27k payrolls were shed from the US economy in March, better than the consensus view for -150k. However, while the data appear encouraging, the ADP itself noted that the survey period ran through the 12th of the month, meaning that much of the COVID impact has not been captured in the data. It is also worth noting that the official BLS employment situation report also runs through that same period and therefore may be subject to similar caveats.

    WEEKLY INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: Weekly jobless claims for the week ending 28th March rose to a fresh record high 6.648mln, around double last week’s tally which was in itself a record high. The latest spike in jobless claims will not have an impact on the BLS data; in the corresponding survey period for the BLS data, initial jobless claims rose from 211k to 282k. But ahead, the data signals April’s Employment Situation Report will be grim, given accelerating claims; and ahead, analysts are not convinced the peak is in yet. Total layoffs between the March and April payroll surveys look destined to reach perhaps 16-to-20mln, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics, which would be consistent with the unemployment rate rising to 13- to-16%. “We have consistently argued from the beginning that the USD 2trln CARES Act is nothing like big enough; these data, and the numbers which will follow, make another huge package inevitable,” Pantheon said.

    Additionally, some individuals may classify themselves as “employed but not at work”, which could limit the magnitude of the increase in the jobless rate tomorrow. Taken together, the March unemployment rate likely rose three tenths to 3.8%. And while the risks tomorrow are skewed towards a larger increase, the majority of the unemployment rise will occur in April and subsequent reports, with the jobless rate reaching 15% by midyear.

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    CHALLENGER JOB CUTS: Job cuts announced by US-based employers surged to 222,288 in March from 56,660, the highest monthly tally since January 2009; challenger noted that the data did not include the hundreds of thousands of workers who were furloughed in March. “The virus has caused total whiplash for HR, hiring managers, and recruiters. The labor data for February showed a strong economy with a tight labor market. Companies were fighting for talent across industries. Now, millions of workers have filed for unemployment, companies have frozen hiring, and in many cases, cut operations or closed completely,” Challenger said. It notes that the shut-down of nonessential businesses caused 141,844 cuts, primarily in entertainment/leisure; of the 54,300 cuts announced where no specific reason was provided, Challenger suspects many are due to COVID-19. Challenger notes that despite the jump in job cut announcements, hiring announcements have also surged during the outbreak. Instacart recently announced they would hire 300,000 new drivers, while grocery stores, like Kroger and Albertsons, are hiring tens of thousands of workers, and Pizza Hut, Domino’s, and Papa John’s are hiring thousands of delivery drivers. “The pandemic has created an opportunity for grocers and food delivery services, as well as consumer products delivery services, to thrive right now. The issue is whether they can find the workers to do jobs that now come with inherent risks that did not previously exist,” said Challenger.

    BUSINESS SURVEYS: Not all of the business surveys are in ahead of the March jobs report. However, the March manufacturing ISM report saw the employment sub-index fall by 3.1 points to 43.8; ISM said this was the eighth month of employment contraction, and at a faster rate compared to February. It is again worth highlighting that the manufacturing sector accounts for around 11% of the US economy, and as such, it is difficult to infer what the ISM means for the BLS Data, particularly since manufacturing surveys have held up better than their services equivalent, of late. Additionally, some analysts, like those at UBS, have questioned the usefulness of survey data at the moment, noting that they are subject to quirks around a) some of the treatment of supply chains, which has flattered data, b) the fact that many respondents will not be replying to surveys during the virus disruption period, and c) survey data will give more accurate assessments during ‘normal’ times, perhaps not as much in unusual times.

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    CORONAVIRUS: As shown below, Seattle public parking and NYC subway usage both declined 30% during the survey week (and by -14% and -18% on the Monday of the survey week, respectively), consistent with a sizeable drag on economic activity and employment from the 6.5mn payroll employees in these cities. And across the entire country, OpenTable reservations declined 25% year-on-year during the survey week, with declines in 35 out of 37 major cities on Monday of the survey week. Because of the coronavirus, expected declining payrolls in the food services, accommodation, recreation services, social assistance, and temporary help subindustries in this week’s report (both nationwide and in New York City and
    Seattle).

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    And next month, expect all hell to break loose.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 04/03/2020 – 01:00

  • Mnuchin Says Energy Firms Can Be Bailed Out By The Fed
    Mnuchin Says Energy Firms Can Be Bailed Out By The Fed

    As part of the Coronavirus CARES Act, the $2 trillion fiscal stimulus meant to resuscitate the US economy, Congress allocated $454 billion to help underwrite the special lending programs from the Federal Reserve. This could generate up to $4.540 trillion in new lending (assuming 10x leverage for highly-rated assets) likely geared toward small and medium-sized businesses.

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    It now turns out that the first industry to benefit from direct Fed loans is the imploding US energy sector, which for the past decade benefited indirectly from Fed generosity by issuing junk bonds to yield starved investors who are now facing near certain bankruptcy in the face, as the price of oil – if it stays at this level – assures they will never be repaid.

    Speaking at a White House news conference on Thursday, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said energy companies squeezed by the oil-price war can turn to the Federal Reserve’s lending facilities for aid but won’t get direct loans from his department.

    “I have very limited ability to do direct loans out of the Treasury,” he said, suggesting that distressed shale companies should instead beg the Fed.

    As Bloomberg notes, the $2.2 trillion coronavirus-related economic package authorizes the secretary to provide loans and grants to passenger airlines, cargo airlines, contractors and companies important to national security, Mnuchin said. Other companies must turn to the Fed, which is authorized to inject $4 trillion into the U.S. economy through various lending facilities approved by Congress.

    “Our expectation is the energy companies, like all our other companies, will be able to participate in broad-based facilities, whether it’s the corporate facility or whether it’s the main street facility, but not direct lending out of the Treasury,” he said, leaving the Fed as the only option.

    And now we look forward to the populist backlash when a line of insolvent shale CEOs forms outside the Marriner Eccles all begging to have their junk bonds taken out at par, and refinance with a Fed loan yielding, well, nothing and ideally forgiveable if the new round of cheap debt manages to bankrupt Saudi Arabia as the price of oil goes negative.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 04/03/2020 – 00:11

  • The State-By-State Toll Of Coronavirus On The Job Market
    The State-By-State Toll Of Coronavirus On The Job Market

    Courtesy of Joseph Brusuelas of the Real Economy Blog and Wallet Hub

    The widespread layoffs of American workers worsened in the third week of the coronavirus shutdown, with all states (with the exception of the Virgin Islands) now having reported a significant increase in initial jobless claims at some point during the three-week period.

    This strongly suggests that Congress will have to make state and municipal finance a policy priority to prevent a spillover of the recent carnage in the labor market into the public sector.

    Nationally, there were 6.6 million initial jobless claims for the week ending March 28 on a seasonally adjusted basis. That amounts to a nearly 300-standard-deviation shock to the labor force that is likely to have a long-run impact on consumer spending and the economy as a whole.

    To identify which states have experienced the largest unemployment increases, WalletHub compared the 50 states and the District of Columbia across two key metrics. These metrics compare initial unemployment claim increases for the week of March 23, 2020 to both the same week in 2019 and the first week of 2020. Below, you can see highlights from the report, along with a WalletHub Q&A.

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    Nevada, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Rhode Island reported fewer claims in the latest week of reporting (March 28) than in the first week of widespread layoffs, but that’s not to say things are getting better.

    For example, Nevada reported 71,000 initial claims in the week ending March 28, versus 92,000 in the week ending March 21. By comparison, the average number of claims in Nevada was 2,900 per week in the pre-crisis period.

    And Minnesota reported 110,000 initial claims in the week ending March 28, versus 116,000 in the week ending March 21. By comparison, the average number of claims in Minnesota was 4,300 per week in the pre-crisis period.

    Also discouraging is that 6,000 of those claims involved plant closings during the month of March, as reported by Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development, which suggests that the impact of the virus is moving beyond the service sector.

    The map below shows three numbers below the state name:

    1. The cumulative number of initial unemployment claims since March 7, the before the effect of shutdowns began in earnest.
    2. The latest increase (decrease) in the number of claims.
    3. The Z-score of the latest increase (decrease) in claims, which is the number of standard deviations above (below) the pre-coronavirus average.

    The first number indicates the depth of the impact of the virus on the labor force.

    The second number indicates the direction of the claims (i.e., a first derivative of sorts): Positive numbers indicate an increase in claims and labor market distress; positive numbers approaching zero indicate the deceleration in new filings; zero would suggest a plateauing of claims; while negative numbers are an indication that businesses and employees are returning to normal.

    The third number shows the unprecedented degree of the shock, with Z-scores outside the range of plus-or-minus two standard deviations considered to be outside of normal occurrences.

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    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 04/02/2020 – 23:40

  • WHO Targeted In Major COVID-19 Data-Hacking Campaign Believed Tied To Iran
    WHO Targeted In Major COVID-19 Data-Hacking Campaign Believed Tied To Iran

    A new report by Reuters alleges a major attempted hack of the World Health Organization (WHO) during the worldwide coronavirus pandemic linked to Iranian state entities.

    WHO officials described “a sustained digital bombardment” by hackers described as seeking internal information on the deadly coronavirus, further said to be “more than doubled” compared to prior hacking attempts of the United Nations health agency.

    Iran has vehemently denied that it or any of its intelligence arms were behind the computer network attacks, with the Islamic Republic’s information technology ministry dismissing the reports as “sheer lies to put more pressure on Iran.” Instead, the ministry said, “Iran has been a victim of hacking.”

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    Image source: Cybercrime Magazine

    Iran’s leaders have of late lashed out at the US and Western humanitarian organizations for sanctions, which have exacerbated the intensity of the deadly outbreak inside Iran.

    Reuters cited an unnamed source only described as working for a large technology company which monitors global cyber-threats as alleging, “We’ve seen some targeting by what looks like Iranian government-backed attackers targeting international health organizations generally via phishing.” 

    Specifically the report describes the hackers’ methods as follows:

    The latest effort has been ongoing since March 2 and attempted to steal passwords from WHO staff by sending malicious messages designed to mimic Google web services to their personal email accounts, a common hacking technique known as “phishing,” according to four people briefed on the attacks. Reuters confirmed their findings by reviewing a string of malicious websites and other forensic data.

    Western intelligence sources interviewed further pointed to an Iranian pattern of intensifying cyber-attacks against European and American institutions and targets during times of major international crisis.

    Over the past year there’ve been multiple instances of hackers infiltrating US federal websites and displaying pro-Iranian messages on them, especially becoming more intense following the Jan.3 assassination of the IRGC’s Gen. Soleimani.

    Reuters referenced the pattern as follows: “Other details in this phishing attempt point to links with Tehran. For example, Reuters found that the same malicious websites used in the WHO break-in attempts were deployed around the same time to target American academics with ties to Iran,” according to the report.

    “The related activity – which saw the hackers impersonate a well-known researcher – parallels cases Reuters previously documented where alleged Iranian hackers masqueraded as media figures from organizations such as CNN or The New York Times to trick their targets,” it said.

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    Since last summer when tensions began soaring between Tehran and Washington, eventually nearly leading to war and tit-for-tat military strikes in January of this year, cyber operations between the US and Iran have reportedly ramped up dramatically, with both sides considering the covert digital intrusions of each others’ classified data an ‘act of war’. 

    This week the White House has put US forces in the Middle East on a state of alert, with Trump on Wednesday alleging that Iranian proxies in Iraq are preparing a major attack on American bases there. 


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 04/02/2020 – 23:20

  • Escobar: Ground-Control To Planet Lockdown – "The Existing World-System Has To Go"
    Escobar: Ground-Control To Planet Lockdown – “The Existing World-System Has To Go”

    Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    As much as Covid-19 is a circuit breaker, a time bomb and an actual weapon of mass destruction (WMD), a fierce debate is raging worldwide on the wisdom of mass quarantine applied to entire cities, states and nations.

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    Those against it argue Planet Lockdown not only is not stopping the spread of Covid-19 but also has landed the global economy into a cryogenic state – with unforeseen, dire consequences. Thus quarantine should apply essentially to the population with the greatest risk of death: the elderly.

    With Planet Lockdown transfixed by heart-breaking reports from the Covid-19 frontline, there’s no question this is an incendiary assertion.

    In parallel, a total corporate media takeover is implying that if the numbers do not substantially go down, Planet Lockdown – an euphemism for house arrest – remains, indefinitely.

    Michael Levitt, 2013 Nobel Prize in chemistry and Stanford biophysicist, was spot on when he calculated that China would get through the worst of Covid-19 way before throngs of health experts believed, and that “What we need is to control the panic”.

    Let’s cross this over with some facts and dissident opinion, in the interest of fostering an informed debate.

    The report Covid-19 – Navigating the Uncharted was co-authored by Dr. Anthony Fauci – the White House face of the fight –, H. Clifford Lane, and CDC director Robert R. Redfield. So it comes from the heart of the U.S. healthcare establishment.

    The report explicitly states, “the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.”

    On March 19, four days before Downing Street ordered the British lockdown, Covid-19 was downgraded from the status of “High Consequence Infectious Disease.”

    John Lee, recently retired professor of pathology and former NHS consultant pathologist, has recently argued that, “the world’s 18,944 coronavirus deaths represent 0.14 per cent of the total. These figures might shoot up but they are, right now, lower than other infectious diseases that we live with (such as flu).”

    He recommends, “a degree of social distancing should be maintained for a while, especially for the elderly and the immune-suppressed. But when drastic measures are introduced, they should be based on clear evidence. In the case of Covid-19, the evidence is not clear.”

    That’s essentially the same point developed by a Russian military intel analyst.

    No less than 22 scientists – see here and here – have expanded on their doubts about the Western strategy.

    Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi, Professor Emeritus of Medical Microbiology at the Johannes Gutenberg University in Mainz, has provoked immense controversy with his open letter to Chancellor Merkel, stressing the “truly unforeseeable consequences of the drastic containment measures which are currently being applied in large parts of Europe.”

    Even New York governor Andrew Cuomo admitted on the record about the error of quarantining elderly people with illnesses alongside the fit young population.

    The absolutely key issue is how the West was caught completely unprepared for the spread of Covid-19 – even after being provided a head start of two months by China, and having the time to study different successful strategies applied across Asia.

    There are no secrets for the success of the South Korean model.

    South Korea was producing test kits already in early January, and by March was testing 100,000 people a day, after establishing strict control of the whole population – to Western cries of “no protection of private life”. That was before the West embarked on Planet Lockdown mode.

    South Korea was all about testing early, often and safely – in tandem with quick, thorough contact tracing, isolation and surveillance.

    Covid-19 carriers are monitored with the help of video-surveillance cameras, credit card purchases, smartphone records. Add to it SMS sent to everyone when a new case is detected near them or their place of work. Those in self-isolation need an app to be constantly monitored; non-compliance means a fine to the equivalent of $2,800.

    Controlled demolition in effect

    In early March, the Chinese Journal of Infectious Diseases, hosted by the Shanghai Medical Association, pre-published an Expert Consensus on Comprehensive Treatment of Coronavirus in Shanghai. Treatment recommendations included, “large doses of vitamin C…injected intravenously at a dose of 100 to 200 mg / kg per day. The duration of continuous use is to significantly improve the oxygenation index.”

    That’s the reason why 50 tons of Vitamin C was shipped to Hubei province in early February. It’s a stark example of a simple “mitigation” solution capable of minimizing economic catastrophe.

    In contrast, it’s as if the brutally fast Chinese “people’s war” counterpunch against Covid-19 had caught Washington totally unprepared. Steady intel rumbles on the Chinese net point to Beijing having already studied all plausible leads towards the origin of the Sars-Cov-2 virus – vital information that will be certainly weaponized, Sun Tzu style, at the right time.

    As it stands, the sustainability of the complex Eurasian integration project has not been substantially compromised. As the EU has provided the whole planet with a graphic demonstration of its cluelessness and helplessness, everyday the Russia-China strategic partnership gets stronger – increasingly investing in soft power and advancing a pan-Eurasia dialogue which includes, crucially, medical help.

    Facing this process, the EU’s top diplomat, Joseph Borrell, sounds indeed so helpless:

    There is a global battle of narratives going on in which timing is a crucial factor. […] China has brought down local new infections to single figures – and it is now sending equipment and doctors to Europe, as others do as well. China is aggressively pushing the message that, unlike the U.S., it is a responsible and reliable partner. In the battle of narratives we have also seen attempts to discredit the EU (…) We must be aware there is a geo-political component including a struggle for influence through spinning and the ‘politics of generosity’. Armed with facts, we need to defend Europe against its detractors.”

    That takes us to really explosive territory. A critique of the Planet Lockdown strategy inevitably raises serious questions pointing to a controlled demolition of the global economy. What is already in stark effect are myriad declinations of martial law, severe social media policing in Ministry of Truth mode, and the return of strict border controls.

    These are unequivocal markings of a massive social re-engineering project, complete with inbuilt full monitoring, population control and social distancing promoted as the new normal.

    That would be taking to the limit Secretary of State Mike “we lie, we cheat, we steal” Pompeo’s assertion, on the record, that Covid-19 is a live military exercise: “This matter is going forward — we are in a live exercise here to get this right.”

    All hail BlackRock

    So as we face a New Great Depression, steps leading to a Brave New World are already discernable. It goes way beyond a mere Bretton Woods 2.0, in the manner that Pam and Russ Martens superbly deconstruct the recent $2 trillion, Capitol Hill-approved stimulus to the U.S. economy.

    Essentially, the Fed will “leverage the bill’s $454 million bailout slush fund into $4.5 trillion”. And no questions are allowed on who gets the money, because the bill simply cancels the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) for the Fed.

    The privileged private contractor for the slush fund is none other than BlackRock. Here’s the extremely short version of the whole, astonishing scheme, masterfully detailed here.

    Wall Street has turned the Fed into a hedge fund. The Fed is going to own at least two thirds of all U.S. Treasury bills wallowing in the market before the end of the year.

    The U.S. Treasury will be buying every security and loan in sight while the Fed will be the banker – financing the whole scheme.

    So essentially this is a Fed/ Treasury merger. A behemoth dispensing loads of helicopter money – with BlackRock as the undisputable winner.

    BlackRock is widely known as the biggest money manager on the planet. Their tentacles are everywhere. They own 5% of Apple, 5% of Exxon Mobil, 6% of Google, second largest shareholder of AT&T (Turner, HBO, CNN, Warner Brothers) – these are just a few examples.

    They will buy all these securities and manage those dodgy special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) on behalf of the Treasury.

    BlackRock not only is the top investor in Goldman Sachs. Better yet: Blackrock is bigger than Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank combined. BlackRock is a serious Trump donor. Now, for all practical purposes, it will be the operating system – the Chrome, Firefox, Safari – of Fed/Treasury.

    This represents the definitive Wall Street-ization of the Fed – with no evidence whatsoever it will lead to any improvement in the lives of the average American.

    Western corporate media, en masse, have virtually ignored the myriad, devastating economic consequences of Planet Lockdown. Wall to wall coverage barely mentions the astonishing economic human wreckage already in effect – especially for the masses barely surviving, so far, in the informal economy.

    For all practical purposes, the Global War on Terror (GWOT) has been replaced by the Global War on Virus (GWOV). But what is not being seriously analyzed is the Perfect Toxic Storm: a totally shattered economy; The Mother of All Financial Crashes – barely masked by the trillions in helicopter money from the Fed and the ECB; the tens of millions of unemployed engendered by the New Great Depression; the millions of small businesses that will simply disappear; a widespread, global mental health crisis. Not to mention the masses of elderly, especially in the U.S., that will be issued an unspoken “drop dead” notice.

    Beyond any rhetoric about “decoupling”, the global economy is already, de facto, split in two. On one side, we have Eurasia, Africa and swathes of Latin America – what China will be painstakingly connecting and reconnecting via the New Silk Roads. On the other side, we have North America and selected Western vassals. A puzzled Europe lies in the middle.

    A cryogenically induced global economy certainly facilitates a reboot. Trumpism is the New Exceptionalism – so that means an isolationist MAGA on steroids. In contrast, China will painstakingly reboot its market base along the New Silk Roads – Africa and Latin America included – to replace the 20% of trade/exports to be lost with the U.S.

    The meager $1,200 checks promised to Americans are a de facto precursor of the much touted Universal Basic Income (UBI). They may become permanent as tens of millions of people will be permanently unemployed. That will facilitate the transition towards a totally automated, 24/7 economy run by AI – thus the importance of 5G.

    And that’s where ID2020 comes in.

    AI and ID2020

    The European Commission is involved in a crucial but virtually unknown project, CREMA (Cloud Based Rapid Elastic Manufacturing) which aims to facilitate the widest possible implementation of AI in conjunction to the advent of a cashless One-World system.

    The end of cash necessarily implies a One-World government capable of dispensing – and controlling – UBI; a de facto full accomplishment of Foucault’s studies on biopolitics. Anyone is liable to be erased from the system if an algorithm equals this individual with dissent.

    It gets even sexier when absolute social control is promoted as an innocent vaccine.

    ID2020 is self-described as a benign alliance of “public-private partners”. Essentially, it is an electronic ID platform based on generalized vaccination. And its starts at birth; newborns will be provided with a “portable and persistent biometrically-linked digital identity.”

    GAVI, the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization, pledges to “protect people’s health “ and provide “immunization for all”. Top partners and sponsors, apart from the WHO, include, predictably, Big Pharma.

    At the ID2020 Alliance summit last September in New York, it was decided that the “Rising to the Good ID Challenge” program would be launched in 2020. That was confirmed by the World Economic Forum (WEF) this past January in Davos. The digital identity will be tested with the government of Bangladesh.

    That poses a serious question: was ID2020 timed to coincide with what a crucial sponsor, the WHO, qualified as a pandemic? Or was a pandemic absolutely crucial to justify the launch of ID2020?

    As game-changing trial runs go, nothing of course beats Event 201, which took place less than a month after ID2020.

    The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in partnership with, once again, the WEF, as well as the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, described Event 201 as “a high-level pandemic exercise”. The exercise “illustrated areas where public/private partnerships will be necessary during the response to a severe pandemic in order to diminish large-scale economic and societal consequences.”

    With Covid-19 in effect as a pandemic, the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health was forced to issue a statement basically saying they just “modeled a fictional coronavirus pandemic, but we explicitly stated that it was not a prediction”.

    There’s no question “a severe pandemic, which becomes ‘Event 201’ would require reliable cooperation among several industries, national governments, and key international institutions”, as spun by the sponsors. Covid-19 is eliciting exactly this kind of “cooperation”. Whether it’s “reliable” is open to endless debate.

    The fact is that, all over Planet Lockdown, a groundswell of public opinion is leaning towards defining the current state of affairs as a global psyop: a deliberate global meltdown – the New Great Depression – imposed on unsuspecting citizens by design.

    The powers that be, taking their cue from the tried and tested, decades-old CIA playbook, of course are breathlessly calling it a “conspiracy theory”. Yet what vast swathes of global public opinion observe is a – dangerous – virus being used as cover for the advent of a new, digital financial system, complete with a forced vaccine cum nanochip creating a full, individual, digital identity.

    The most plausible scenario for our immediate future reads like clusters of smart cities linked by AI, with people monitored full time and duly micro-chipped doing what they need with a unified digital currency, in an atmosphere of Bentham’s and Foucault’s Panopticum on overdrive.

    So if this is really our future, the existing world-system has to go. This is a test, this is only a test.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 04/02/2020 – 23:00

  • New York's Unemployment Fund Will Be Insolvent In 2 Months
    New York’s Unemployment Fund Will Be Insolvent In 2 Months

    With 92,381 total cases, surging by 8,669 in one day, and resulting in 2,373 deaths, New York has emerged the epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic.

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    Just as concerning, is that it is also among the states least prepared to deal with the record surge of unemployment claims by workers in restaurants, retail shops and hotels closed to slow the outbreak.

    New York’s unemployment insurance trust had about $2.7 billion at the end of 2019, less than half the minimum needed to remain solvent during a recession, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. Alas, it is now facing a depression and with claims skyrocketing, the state has enough money to cover the checks for only 10 weeks, according to an estimate by the Tax Foundation, a Washington-based think tank.

    “New York’s unemployment compensation trust fund is basically insolvent,” wrote Jared Walczak, director of state tax policy at the Tax Foundation as quoted by Bloomberg. “Funds will be exhausted even more quickly should unemployment compensation claims continue to rise.”

    Almost 10 million American applied for unemployment benefits in the last two weeks, highlighting the devastating economic impact of the coronavirus as shutdowns widened across the country. About 450,000 of them were New Yorkers, according to the state’s Department of Labor. Only California, Pennsylvania and Ohio saw more claims.

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    During the Great Recession, the majority of states exhausted their unemployment insurance reserves and either borrowed from the U.S. Treasury or issued bonds to rebuild their trusts, according to Kroll Bond Rating Agency.

    States that have rebuilt reserves such as Georgia and North Carolina will have less pressure to raise unemployment taxes, Kroll wrote in a report Wednesday. New York, unfortunately, is not among them.

    New York’s trust fund had a solvency level of 0.36 as of Dec. 31, where a level of 1.0 means the state could pay out claims for a year at the average level of the worst three years of the past twenty, according to the U.S. Labor Department. California, Texas, New York, Illinois, Ohio and Pennsylvania are among the 22 states and jurisdictions that do not meet the recommended standard of solvency. Only California’s unemployment trust fund is in worse shape than New York’s, according to the department: almost as if the most liberal states also happen to be most insolvent.

    It gets worse: there are now nearly twice as many people claiming or already receiving unemployment benefits as there were over the comparison period, meaning that with current claims, states would run out twice as fast, the Tax Foundation’s Walczak wrote.

    The economic stimulus signed by President Donald Trump provides additional federally-funded benefits to unemployed workers, and expands eligibility to previously uncovered workers, but states are still on the hook for regular benefits.

    “The state will have to borrow from the federal government, and will ultimately have to pay back those loans with interest, while New York employers will eventually face higher federal unemployment insurance taxes to compensate the federal government for extending loans to the state,” Walczak wrote, who clearly is unaware that under helicopter money nobody will repay anything, ever again, and instead the perpetual Minsky moment will be stretch forever, defying every law of finance, and physics, just because the Fed will monetize it all, and everyone will live happily ever after.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 04/02/2020 – 22:40

  • What Really Caused Oil To Rally By 25%?
    What Really Caused Oil To Rally By 25%?

    Submitted by Nick Cunningham of <a href="

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js “>OilPrice

    Oil prices spiked 25 percent on Thursday after President Trump tweeted that Saudi Arabia and Russia would cut production by 10 to 15 million barrels per day (mb/d), but there are a variety of reasons why a cut of this size faces steep odds. Incidentally it was the biggest one day percentage surge in the price of oil in history.

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    This should be prefaced with the fact that nobody knows what will happen and that the onset of a global pandemic means that all of the old rules are thrown out the window. Anything can happen in the context of the greatest public health and economic crisis in a century. 

    But Trump’s tweets raise a ton of questions. Right off the bat, a 10-15 mb/d cut is incredibly massive. How could that be divided up? Russia and Saudi Arabia are both at around 11 mb/d; would they both cut their output in half? That’s an absurd notion. 

    Indeed, immediately, Russia shot down the idea that there was some agreement. That was followed by a clarification from Saudi Arabia, which called for an emergency OPEC+ meeting that could lead to cuts with “another group of countries” in an attempt to arrive at a “fair solution.” 

    That statement means that Saudi Arabia has not signed onto anything, and would only cut if a lot of other countries did the same. The Saudi statement hints that it wants more than just the OPEC+ coalition, which presumably would include the U.S., Canada, Brazil and/or some other non-OPEC producers. 

    Then, news surfaced that Saudi Arabia was willing to cut output below 9 mb/d if others joined them. That means that Saudi will chip in around 2 mb/d of cuts, which is incredibly modest compared to what Trump’s tweet suggests. 

    It would also bring Saudi output roughly back to where it was a month ago, prior to the breakdown of the OPEC+ negotiations. 

    Meanwhile, an even larger question is what the U.S. would need to give in order to achieve anything close to what Trump claimed. With U.S. shale on the ropes and destined for a substantial decline, the American government would presumably need to offer quite a bit to get Saudi and Russia on board with deep cuts.  

    Will the U.S. implement its own production cuts? It’s not clear how the U.S. could do this with hundreds of privately-owned oil companies, whether the government even has that authority, whether it can practically implement such a plan, and whether the oil industry itself wants such an outcome. 

    One avenue could be a federal ban on exports, an idea that would be highly controversial and would require Congressional action, which essentially rules it out. A group of Republican Senators from oil states have also proposed a tariff on imported oil, but the American Petroleum Institute has pushed back on that. 

    Texas Railroad Commissioner Ryan Sitton upped the ante midday on Thursday, stating that he spoke with Russian energy minister Alexander Novak about “10mbpd out of global supply,” and that he would soon speak with the Saudi energy minister. Texas regulators had already started exploring state-led production cuts, something that has divided the U.S. oil industry.

    Just had a great conversation with Russia’s @novakav1. While we normally compete, we agreed that #COVID19 requires unprecedented level of int’l cooperation. Discussed 10mbpd out of global supply. Look forward to speaking with Saudi Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman soon.

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    Not long after Trump’s tweet, Reuters reported that the Trump administration does not actually plan on asking domestic drillers to cut production. Trump is set to meet with a group of oil CEOs on Friday, but he apparently won’t ask them to cut output, Reuters says. 

    Bloomberg reported that there was widespread confusion even within the U.S. government about what Trump’s tweet meant. 

    If the U.S. is not going to cut, what, then, is Trump talking about? One thing to consider is that Saudi Arabia can earn some goodwill in Washington by agreeing to call for an emergency OPEC+ meeting. The Saudis could be nodding along with Trump, commiserating about low oil prices, while also suggesting that they could take strong action…if others go along. Riyadh does not have to agree to anything immediately, but by putting the ball in the court of the U.S. and Russia, they may entice production cuts from elsewhere. 

    Oil prices jumped sharply on Trump’s tweet, but his assertion raises more questions than answers. While international diplomacy does seem to be accelerating, a massive unilateral cut from Saudi Arabia, or even a bilateral cut with Russia, remains highly unlikely.  


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 04/02/2020 – 22:18

  • Texas Case Could Produce One Of The First COVID-19 Hate-Crime Charges
    Texas Case Could Produce One Of The First COVID-19 Hate-Crime Charges

    Authored by Jonathan Turley,

    Jose L. Gomez, 19, may have the dubious distinction of being the first person charged and convicted of a Corona hate crime.

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    Gomez is accused of stabbing three members of a family of four inside a Sam’s Club. The family is Asian and police say that he was trying to stop them from spreading the virus. His victims included a 2-year-old and 6-year-old child. While other anti-Asian hate crimes have been reported in the pandemic, this one could result in an early plea or conviction.

    The FBI report states:

    “The suspect indicated that he stabbed the family because he thought the family was Chinese, and infecting people with coronavirus.”

    The report itself confirms that federal prosecutors are considered federal hate crime charges. He is currently charged with three counts of attempted capital murder and one count of aggravated assault with a deadly weapon.

    There is a hero in this story.

    A store employee, Zack Owen, intervened, tackled Gomez and brought him to the ground. Owen was stabbed in the leg and cut on the hand as a result of his brave action. Off-duty Border Patrol Agent, Bernie Ramirez was fortunately also present and rushed forward to place Gomez into custody. He also credited Owen for his bravery.

    Most criminal defense lawyers would be asking for an immediate psychiatric evaluation and ultimately some form of plea bargain. This is not a case that you want to ever see the inside of a jury trial.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 04/02/2020 – 22:05

  • Concerned Citizens Or Rats? Americans Snitch On Local Businesses & Neighbors Amid Shutdowns
    Concerned Citizens Or Rats? Americans Snitch On Local Businesses & Neighbors Amid Shutdowns

    Scott Horton at the Libertarian Institute is alarmed at how fast the rise in corona-moral shaming is translating into Americans snitching to police and town authorities on local small businesses and neighbors

    “Umm, umm, ummm! I’m telling on you! I’m gonna get you in trouble!” – Nickie and Melissa, Mrs. Tuttle’s kindergarten class, 1981.

    Now look here, I think everyone who can possibly stay at home to try to “flatten the curve” and short-circuit this novel coronavirus, the better. But do you people really have to turn America into North Korea in the process?

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    Local neighborhood bar, file image via Frost Design

    Mere hyperbole perhaps? Well, take a quick look at these tales from Middle Amerika amid the nationwide coronavirus lockdown. Apparently the Associated Press notices enough of a rising trend to profile the emerging numbers of what it bluntly dubs “snitches”:

    Snitches are emerging as enthusiastic allies as cities, states and countries work to enforce directives meant to limit person-to-person contact amid the virus pandemic that has claimed tens of thousands of lives worldwide. They’re phoning police and municipal hotlines, complaining to elected officials and shaming perceived scofflaws on social media.

    “In some places, investigators are patrolling the streets, looking for violators,” AP notes.  “In some cases, residents are turning on neighbors.”

    * * *

    Oklahoma

    “One Tulsa, Oklahoma, bar owner said more than a dozen motorcyclists showed up unannounced, but he served them a round of shots anyway to celebrate a birthday. Another live-streamed a drag queen show on Facebook while up to 20 people drank inside the locked bar, ignoring police when they knocked on the door.”

    Both were busted — and received misdemeanor citations and court dates — after police responded to tips that the bars were violating the mayor’s order shuttering all nonessential businesses to help slow the spread of the coronavirus.”

    “…Lt. Meulenberg said the department’s call volume has increased substantially with residents ratting out businesses and neighbors alike, though they can’t respond to all of them.”

    Illinois

    “In Chicago, a yoga studio that believed it qualified as an essential health and wellness service was closed after the city — tipped off by several residents — disagreed. Teacher Naveed Abidi of Bikram Yoga West Loop studio said he thought the studio could remain open if the space was sanitized, class size limited and students stayed far enough apart.”

    “If we were naughty with the government’s order, then we’re very, very sorry said Abidi, who faces a fine of up to $10,000. “We’re not here to cause problems, we’re here to practice our poses.”

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    Via PhillyMag

    Colorado

    A team enforcing Denver’s shelter-in-place order issued five citations — including to Hobby Lobby and a Game Stop franchise that claimed it was essential — and more than 600 warnings to businesses and individuals as of Tuesday, city spokesman Alton Dillard said. The team also patrols neighborhoods, parks and recreation areas.

    Connecticut

    “Naugatuck, Connecticut, resident Gwen Becker said she was ‘mortified’ when she drove by a golf course and saw a crowd gathered around a food truck and eating at tables together. So she took a video that her friend posted on Facebook — prompting the mayor to shut down the course.”

    “I was angry and upset, and I threw some f-bombs,” said Becker, 54. “You’re not going to consider that what you’re doing could kill somebody?”

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    New Jersey

    “In Newark, New Jersey, police shut down 15 businesses in one night and cited 161 people for violating the governor’s restrictions, saying others would be next if they didn’t heed directives. And Maryland State Police said they’d conducted nearly 6,600 business and crowd compliance checks.”

    Even Funerals!

    “Chicago police even disbanded a funeral Sunday after seeing a group of up to 60 people, many elderly, congregating inside a church, police spokesman Anthony Guglielmi said.”

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    “Balcony Police”

    In one viral video, the person recording it is heard criticizing a woman who decides to go for a jog and resists police orders to produce her ID card. Another shows a family of four heading to a supermarket carrying a scooter for one of their children while half a dozen neighbors yell at them from the window.

    * * *

    Finally, we should ask: what will America look like when its economy finally opens back up and bars, restaurants, studios, and streets are bustling once again?

    Possibly a certain paranoia and fear will remain, and deep suspicions will endure, after in crisis-hit times neighbor so easily turned against neighbor.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 04/02/2020 – 21:45

  • "Bad Senator" Schumer "Apalled" After Trump Letter, Implores "Stop The Pettiness"
    “Bad Senator” Schumer “Apalled” After Trump Letter, Implores “Stop The Pettiness”

    Update (2125ET): Unsurprisingly, Senator Schumer has responded to President Trump’s brutal letter by appearing on MSNBC tonight:

    “I spoke to the president late this afternoon and explained it and the result is this letter. So I’m just appalled. You know I say to the president just stop the pettiness. People are dying and so, President Trump, we need leadership. We need to get the job done. Stop the pettiness.

    *  *  *

    President Trump and the White House task force delivered another lengthy, and at times rambling, press conference Thursday evening, and after Mnuchin finished speaking about the stimulus bill ‘complications’, we suspect most viewers probably tuned out.

    But those who didn’t may have heard Trump engage in some classic Trump opposition-baiting, telling off Chuck Schumer for a letter he wrote to President Trump criticizing the White House’s coronavirus response, and – included among a list of suggestions – urging the White House to appoint a “senior military officer” to help lead the federal response.

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    Well, as it turns out, Trump didn’t stop there. As millions of Americans wonder what’s taking so long with the bailout checks, and hundreds of thousands of small business owners anxiously chew their cuticles while wondering how long it will take to get the money in their accounts, Trump was busy composing a written response to Schumer’s letter, essentially calling him an idiot for failing to realize that Trump already has military people in charge of the federal coronavirus response (though there are no active military personnel on the task force).

    Trump also blasted Schumer for failing to take helpful steps to help his state – New York, the epicenter of the crisis in the US – prepare for this crisis. But the truth is, when it comes to “who’s responsible?” there’s enough to go around (and some for Trump as well). But this time, he added a new element. Since Schumer is in Congress, he spent most of the last two years helping the Democrats build up their ridiculous impeachment hoax instead of helping prepare for the crisis, or doing, well – anything  – truly productive other than inside-baseball favor-trading to protect his constituents.

    Dear Senator Schumer:

    Thank you for your Democrat public relations letter and incorrect sound bites, which are wrong in every way.

    1. As you are aware, Vice President Pence is in charge of the Task Force. By almost all accounts, he has done a spectacular job.

    2. The Defense Production Act (DPA) has been consistently used by my team and me for the purchase of billions of dollars’ worth of equipment, medical supplies, ventilators, and other related items. It has been powerful leverage, so powerful that companies generally do whatever we are asking, without even a formal notice. They know something is coming, and that’s all they need to know.

    3. A “senior military officer” is in charge of purchasing, distributing, etc. His name is Rear Admiral John Polowczyk. He is working 24 hours a day, and is highly respected by    everyone. If you remember, my team gave you this information, but for public relations    purposes, you choose to ignore it.

    4. We have given New York many things, including hospitals, medical centers, medical< supplies, record numbers of ventilators, and more. You should have had New York much better prepared than you did, and as Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx said yesterday, New York was very late in its fight against the virus. As you are aware, the Federal Government is merely a back-up for state governments. Unfortunately, your state needed far more of a back-up than most others.

    If you spent less lime on your ridiculous impeachment hoax, which went haplessly on forever and ended up going nowhere (except increasing my poll numbers), and instead focused on helping the people of New York, then New York would not have been so completely unprepared for the “invisible enemy.” No wonder AOC and others are thinking about running against you in the primary. If they did, they would likely win.

    Fortunately, we have been working with your state and city governments, Governor Andrew Cuomo and Mayor Bill Delllasio, to get the job done. You have been missing in action, except when it comes to the “press.” While you have stated that you don’t like Andrew Cuomo, you ought to start working alongside him for the good of all New Yorkers.

    I’ve known you for many years, but I never knew how bad a Senator you are for the state of New York, until I became President.

    If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to call. Or, in the alterative, call Rear Admiral Polowczyk.

    Even after Trump back-tracked, caved to Democrats, and summoned his DPA powers to try to ramp up production of the desperately needed ventilators (something he probably should have done almost two weeks ago), the president didn’t shy away from taking a swing at Schumer during Thursday night’s briefing, bringing up the letter the Senator had written him, and mocking Schumer for purportedly being unaware that Trump had already appointed a “military man” to help run the federal response.

    “Chuck if you knew a little bit more, we have one of the most highly respected people in the military, the admiral…”

    Watch the clip below:

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    After re-watching that clip, it also occurred to us that Admiral Polowczyk might have only been brought to the press conference as a prep. But we have no evidence to back up that claim.

    Does Trump know Rear Admiral Polowczyk name? Probably not. And is it really fair to say that Polowczyk is helping to lead the federal coronavirus response? That might be a stretch, for example, he’s not actually on the task force, though he does seem to have a relatively senior role, at least on paper.

    But then again, does anybody really know who’s running what inside the task force, other than the fact that VP Pence is nominally in charge.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 04/02/2020 – 21:28

  • Beijing Ramps Up South China Sea War Drills As Pandemic Swallows West
    Beijing Ramps Up South China Sea War Drills As Pandemic Swallows West

    China conducted war drills in the South China Sea this week as the COVID-19 pandemic terrorizes the US, forcing the Pentagon to divert its attention to the Homeland to manage the public health crisis that is unfolding rather than countering Beijing in the open seas.

    Asia Times reports that in recent days China ramped up military drills and deployed military assets in the highly contested waters of the South China Sea, specifically in areas that are known to have massive fossil fuel reserves. 

    While some see China’s nationalistic messaging as a bid to rally its people during difficult Covid-19 times, others view the increasingly aggressive naval maneuvers as a bid to exploit America’s weakened condition to secure new advantage in the hot spot theater. -Asia Times

    While China conducted maritime exercises, countries surrounding the South China Sea, who also have staked rights to the fossil fuel reserves in the contested waters, are in countrywide lockdowns enforced by their respective militaries. This is an instance where military assets of Western powers and allies are preoccupied in their own countries, as Beijing sails around the South China Sea uncontested. 

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    Many people don’t realize, the Chinese virus unleashed a nuclear bomb on America, but did not destroy any physical assets. Instead, it imploded the financial economy. And without China firing a shot, the US Navy has likely lost the USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71), a massive nuclear aircraft carrier stationed in Guam. At least 1,000 sailors have been evacuated from the vessel for fear of contracting the virus. 

    The virus is a giant distraction from the Pentagon’s freedom of navigation missions that are used to counter China in the South China Sea. With most of its time and effort focused on fighting the virus on the Homeland and maintaining social order – America’s power overseas diminishes. 

    The Western world is melting down over a virus outbreak. China didn’t even have to fire one shot – as it now seizes this opportunity to increase its power in the South China Sea: 

    China’s bid to opportunize on the Covid-19 crisis which originated in its Wuhan city has been on display on multiple fronts. On one hand, Beijing has launched a concerted attempt to reshape the pandemic’s narrative, including the bizarre suggestion by top Chinese officials that the US military planted the virus in China.

    This has gone hand-in-hand with attempts to drive a diplomatic wedge between the US and its traditional transatlantic allies, some of which have recently committed naval vessels to US-led freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea. -Asia Times

    The People’s Liberation Army flexed its muscles in the northern portions of the South China Sea last month, saying: 

    Training for war preparedness will not be stopped even in the middle of the Covid-19 epidemic, and the training of carrier-based fighter pilots must continue.

    The Global Times described the latest war drill as part of fighting the pandemic. 

    An aircraft carrier is a large warship with many people concentrated in its cabins, making it vulnerable to infectious diseases. Being able to successfully conduct related missions indicated that the Liaoning has done a great job in controlling the epidemic. – Beijing-based naval expert Li Jie told Global Times.

    And just like that, a Chinese virus implodes the American economy, takes out an aircraft carrier in the Pacific, and China makes a big move in the South China Sea. Is the virus the first silent shot fired by Beijing in World War III? 


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 04/02/2020 – 21:25

  • It Begins: US Treasury Balance Hits All Time High After Historic Flood Of Bill Issuance
    It Begins: US Treasury Balance Hits All Time High After Historic Flood Of Bill Issuance

    One didn’t need to read our post explaining why with the Fed’s reverse repo operations now much more aggressively used (and in fact seeing some $182BN of usage well into the second quarter, so much more than just a quarter-end window dressing exercise) …

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    … than the Fed’s recently expanded, massive repo ops, which have basically been abandoned by Dealers in the past week …

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    … there was now a shortage of Treasuries: a quick look at where T-bills yields were trading on Monday was sufficient – virtually every issue to the left of 3 months had a deeply negative yield, and ushered in a risk-free arb that bond traders could take advantage of to make virtually unlimited money by purchasing Bills at a 0%-yield capped auctions and then selling them in the open market above par.

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    That’s when Steven Mnuchin realized he had to do something to address the bond shortage which was literally taking money from the Treasury and handing it to Wall Street, and that thing was to unleash a historic flood of Bills and Cash Management Bills, something we pointed out in “Treasury To Sell Over A Quarter Trillion Bills In 48 Hours.” Immediately the yields across the curve spiked, with all tenors now yielding back above 0% (the Bill arb disappearing in the process).

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    Yet this does not do justice to the absolute tsunami of issuance in the Bill market where the Treasury did everything in its power to not only flood the market with new debt (not that it had much of a choice) but to also prefund the Treasury’s historic outflows in the coming days.

    As shown in the chart below, in addition to the previously discussed Bills and CMBs, this week’s Treasury has been on an absolute tear and in just the past 4 days has issued, in addition to the regularly scheduled 4-Week, 8-Week, 3-Month and 6-Month Bills, also 154 Day, 102 Day, 39 Day, 119 Day, 42 Day, 69 Day, and 37 Day Cash Management Bills, as shown in the chart below.

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    This $563 billion in gross Bill issuance ($93BN on Monday, $154BN on Tuesday, $85BN on Wednesday, $220BN on Thursday), is more than anything ever seen previously in a 4 day period. And while a portion of this gross issuance went to offset current maturities, the net effect was massive nonetheless, and nowhere more so than the Treasury’s cash balance (i.e. the Federal Reserve Account).

    And, as shown in the final chart, the result of this Bill issuance flood is that the cash balance of the Treasury (i.e. the US government) just hit a record $515 billion, the highest on record.

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    Why? Because tomorrow is the day the crisis response officially begins as hundreds of billions in small, medium and very large business bailout demands hit the Treasury as up to $2 trillion in funds are handed out across the economy over the coming weeks.

    As such, the half a trillion dollars held electronically at the US Treasury is just the beginning.

    And here a quick aside: consider the path the money is taking before ending up in Joe Sixpack’s pocket: a desk worker at the Treasury punches a few buttons and sells electronic certificates which mature in a few weeks and are backstopped by the US government and which in turn fund the Treasury’s account with electronic dollars which were paid by some investor who similarly punched a few buttons on his computer and in hopes of parking his cash somewhere safe, handed over his electronic money to the Treasury desk worker. As a result of this transaction, hundreds of millions will receive a small amount of electronic ones and zeros in the next few days, which for countless people will mean the difference between disaster and survival.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 04/02/2020 – 21:22

  • "Who Are These Parents?" – As COVID-19 Cases Soar, America's Teenaged 'Covidiots' Still Aren't Obeying Quarantine Orders
    “Who Are These Parents?” – As COVID-19 Cases Soar, America’s Teenaged ‘Covidiots’ Still Aren’t Obeying Quarantine Orders

    Looking back, the fact that most Americans went about their daily lives as if nothing was happening for most of February – heeding the official advice of mayors including NYC’s Bill de Blasio and others – seems almost unconscionable. All the while, COVID-19 was spreading, unseen, among communities in suburban Seattle, and in NYC and the suburban areas surrounding the city.

    And yet, even after colleges around the country cancelled classes or converted to all-digital learning, hundreds of thousands of “Covidiot” teenagers and early twentysomethings were still hell-bent on capitalizing on cheap flights and enjoying the extended spring break of their dreams, public welfare be damned.

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    Many of these selfishly ignorant teenagers helped spread the virus around the country, as studies have now shown. But sadly, the ignorance of American teenagers – and the at-times depressing impotence of parents struggling to ‘civilize’ them – apparently knows no bounds. Because the Washington Post‘s ‘society’ section just ran a story about parents trying to cope with teenagers who are almost pathologically incapable of staying at home and doing nothing.

    The reporter told the story of one suburban Virginia mom with an undisclosed medical condition that has left her immunocompromised. Despite this, her 18-year-old son insists on going out and meeting up with “his boys” – fellow high-school-senior-age teenagers who have built a fort in the nearby woods where they go to violate the newfound strictures of society.

    For two weeks now, since Loudoun County closed its schools March 12, Julian has been building a fort near the Potomac River with “my boys,” he says, about two dozen seniors who show up randomly, bringing free pallets of wood they’ve spotted on Craigslist and building supplies from Home Depot. Rather than socially distancing, they’ve hammered away for hours before grilling hot dogs and fish they catch in a nearby pond and huddling together “to chill.”

    Julian arrived first to the clearing Thursday and offered a tour of the fort, which rose from the wooded landscape like a hermit’s dream with its frame of poles set in quick cement, covered by a blue tarp to keep out the rain. In recent days, the crowd had been dwindling as news of the coronavirus contagion grew more alarming and parents began putting their collective feet down.

    Many teens in the Washington region and across the country are gradually moving past anger and depression to acceptance, at least for the time being, as they grieve the social losses that come with self-quarantining. But Julian — his mother wanted his last name withheld to protect his privacy — is stuck in denial.

    His mother fights back with an endless barrage of “sticky note” reminders encouraging her son to wash his hands for more than 20 seconds and to take other steps to protect the family from being sickened by the careless actions of their ungrateful teenage child.

    Julian knows he is supposed to keep his distance from his mother, who takes a medication that compromises her immune system. He calls her concerns “100 percent valid,” and said “it freaked me out” when she recently had a small cold. Even so, he sheepishly tries to duck into her space.

    “Staying six feet apart from my mom is hard,” Julian says. “I like to go up and hug her all the time.”

    As for Elisa’s written reminders, “As soon as I walk in, I get hit in the face with a sticky note,” Julian says. “You can’t grab something in the kitchen without a sticky note in your face.”

    He seems more amused than annoyed; again, he understands. Still, “it’s hard to get in the habit of washing my hands literally after everything I touch,” he says.

    No such rules apply at “Coronavirus Outpost,” the name he has given his communal fort in the woods.

    Maybe these kids will remember the coronavirus as their big struggle, their “World War II” as it were. Though, given the tendency to accept and embellish unpleasant experiences into “traumas”, we imagine that American teens will use this as one more excuse why the government owes them every handout imaginable, from paying off their student loans to covering health-care costs for life.

    One mom wondered why some parents were still allowing kids to have group sleepovers and other social events when the governor had expressly forbade gatherings of more than 5.

    Kelly Davis was willing to take a hit when her 14-year-old daughter, Victoria, begged to go to a sleepover at a friend’s house. Victoria, a competitive gymnast and straight-A student who Davis calls “the love of my life,” pled with her mother. “Why can’t I go?” she demanded, as her friends watched raptly on FaceTime.

    “First, I made her get off FaceTime,” recounted Davis, 52, a single mom and special education teacher in Elkhart, Ind. “I said, ‘No,Victoria.’ I really don’t care what other parents are doing,” She pulled the “grandmother card,” because Davis’s 84-year-old mother lives with them.

    Still, Davis finds herself resenting other parents. After the sleepover smackdown, another friend invited Victoria to a birthday party.

    “Who are these parents?” she asked. “… It’s hard when other parents aren’t doing the right thing. It makes me look like the mean mom.”

    Kim Baxter was able to forge alliances with other parents so her 17-year-old daughter, Charlotte, a senior at Yorktown High in Arlington, could spend time with friends during the pandemic. Outside, of course, and the requisite six feet apart.

    It did not go well.

    Charlotte unwittingly texted her mother a photo while the foursome were out hiking. “They weren’t keeping any kind of distance,” Baxter, a 51-year-old attorney, said ruefully.

    She later declined on Charlotte’s behalf when the mother of her daughter’s boyfriend and two other parents jointly approved a group camping trip. “The boys are Eagle Scouts and so that wasn’t my concern,” she said. “It was just the close proximity of what they were doing.”

    Charlotte “had a moment,” then that moment passed. Now Charlotte and her boyfriend are allowed to hang out at each others’ houses.

    “I’ve met his mom, and we’ve been texting,” Baxter said. “I think we both kind of agreed that these two are pretty tight and it would probably be unhealthy to separate them.”

    These aren’t the first reports of American teenagers not taking the quarantine seriously. Oddly, the young’s seeming unwillingness to accept that they truly are vulnerable has led to them catching the disease in larger numbers since they’re more likely to recklessly ignore quarantine advice.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 04/02/2020 – 21:05

  • Crypto, QEternity, & "We Won't Know Hyperinflation's Happening Until It's Too Late"
    Crypto, QEternity, & “We Won’t Know Hyperinflation’s Happening Until It’s Too Late”

    Authored by Andrew Singer via CoinTelegraph.com,

    These are perilous times, and it hasn’t escaped anyone’s notice that the United States Federal Reserve is doing its part to alleviate the suffering — which began with the coronavirus pandemic and has spread to the global economy. It’s printing more money. 

    “There is an infinite amount of cash at the Federal Reserve,” Neel Kashkari, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, told Scott Pelley of CBS on March 22, adding:

    “We will do whatever we need to do to make sure there is enough cash in the financial system.”

    The U.S. Federal Reserve itself reinforced that message on March 23, announcing that it would “continue to purchase Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities in the amounts needed to support smooth market functioning.”

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    image courtesy of CoinTelegraph

    The death of capitalism?

    Reactions to these affirmations of quantitative easing, or QE, have been swift from sectors of the crypto community: “With these words, the last vestige of #capitalism died in the US,” wrote Caitlin Long, who established the first crypto-native bank in the United States. “[The] Fed’s monetization U.S. debt is now unlimited.”

    Mati Greenspan, the CEO and co-founder of Quantum Economics told Cointelegraph: “The Fed said it is willing to buy the entire market” if necessary to stabilize markets. Meanwhile, on the fiscal side, Congress’s $2 trillion stimulus package includes handouts like “helicopter money” — i.e., a $1,200 payment to every tax-paying adult who has an annual income below $75,000. “Inflation is pretty much a foregone conclusion at this point,” he stated elsewhere.

    Garrick Hileman, head of research at Blockchain.com, told Cointelegraph: “The response by central banks to COVID-19 is truly unprecedented, with Fed and Bank of England officials using terms like ‘infinite,’ ‘unlimited’ and ‘radical.’” They’ve been using such extraordinary language in the hope they’ll prevent equity and credit markets from seizing up. “Only time will tell if they have gone too far.”

    The U.S. dollar is dominant

    Is inflation really imminent, though? Not if one recognizes that the global demand for U.S. dollars continues to exceed supply. As Civic CEO Vinny Lingham told Cointelegraph: “The reality is: Everyone needs to reprice assets, and they need to do it in U.S. dollars.” 

    Lingham grew up in South Africa. He saw what happened with hyperinflation in neighboring Zimbabwe where “the demand for stable currency exceeded everything else.” With people in the grip of the current pandemic, entire business sectors have been shutting down all over the world. People have been selling assets whether it’s equities, collectible classic cars or Bitcoin (BTC). Lingham added:

    “If I’m living in South Africa, I may have kept money in the form of a bar of gold that is priced in Rands. Now I’m selling it for local Rands and buying U.S. dollars with those Rands. As the Rand devalues, the dollar gets stronger.” 

    Under such conditions, “if the Federal Reserve prints another $2 trillion USD, it’s okay,” said Lingham. Greenspan agrees that the U.S. dollar has been the world’s most in-demand financial asset in recent weeks, and theoretically, the Fed could print trillions more than it is currently proposing — and there may not be any hyperinflation. The problem is that no one knows what the “stop point” is — i.e., how much is too much. “We won’t know [hyperinflation is] happening until it’s too late.”

    BTC as a store of value?

    What does all of this mean for cryptocurrencies? Many in the crypto world assume that Bitcoin, with its fixed maximum supply — 21 million BTC — is bound to come out ahead if the Fed and other central banks print too much money. “Though that assumption has not been tested in real-time except in Venezuela,” said Greenspan. If you had bought BTC at its low point in Venezuelan bolivars and had sold BTC at its height, also for bolivars, you would have come out way ahead. It’s not clear that this case can be generalized, though. During the current crisis, BTC and other cryptocurrencies have plunged dramatically, just like equities — which has somewhat damaged Bitcoin’s claim of being a store of value. 

    The current economic environment is not favorable for any asset class, Lingham observed. Bitcoin i3s now positively correlated with other asset classes. Greenspan said the correlation between BTC and the stock market has recently reached a high point of 0.6 — with 1.0 representing perfect positive correlation. If this were not the case, BTC would currently be priced somewhere between $12,000 and $15,000, Lingham suggested. 

    Ariel Zetlin-Jones, associate professor of economics at Carnegie Mellon University’s Tepper School of Business, told Cointelegraph that he understands this moment is critical for the future of cryptocurrencies:

    “U.S. equity markets have suddenly become as volatile as Bitcoin markets, and the U.S. government is undertaking a large scale intervention that involves a massive expansion of the money supply which in the absence of other major shocks (the economic shutdown due to the pandemic), would normally induce a large increase in the inflation rate.”

    However, Zetlin-Jones does not see these developments causing Bitcoin to emerge as a leading store of value because in the long run: “Bitcoin is one of the riskiest stores of value in the world, with Bitcoin price volatility more than five times that of both gold or even U.S. equity prices.” Kevin Dowd, a professor of finance and economics at Durham University in the United Kingdom, told Cointelegraph:

    “BTC does offer an alternative store of value, and there is no question about that. The issue is: How good is it? It all depends upon when you buy and when you sell, and so there remains a huge element of luck.”

    According to Hileman, the University of Cambridge’s first “cryptocurrency academic,” the prices of gold and Bitcoin should both rise:

    “Even before COVID-19, we felt the unprecedented level of public and private debts made Bitcoin, and hard assets in general, attractive. Historically, recessions and large fiscal and monetary expansions have driven up the price of hard assets like gold. […] We do not see a reason why this time should be any different.”

    The future of crypto?

    It is still too early to gauge the impact of QE on crypto, said Greenspan. “The initial shock of the global economy grinding to a halt” is still too fresh. “The long-term trend is yet to emerge.”

    Moreover, BTC is just a small part of the story, though it has held its value well compared with other asset classes, Greenspan told Cointelegraph.

    People have been struggling, and many individuals are selling everything they can, said Lingham. “Until there is excess capital, Bitcoin is in the same basket as other assets. There will be no mad rush to get into cryptocurrency unless the U.S. dollar falters” — and then, only maybe.

    “I would be surprised if BTC bit the dust due to the current crisis, but you cannot rule anything out,” said Dowd, who has maintained in the past that Bitcoin’s price must go to zero in the long term — principally because its mining model, a natural monopoly, is unsustainable. 

    In the short term, meanwhile: “The injection of money tends to float all markets, and that includes crypto,” said Greenspan. “Stocks will be first, but [the fiscal stimulus] is also likely to push up the price of BTC.” 

    A more decentralized global economy?

    The current crisis might eventually impel structural changes in the world economy, however, and these could change the crypto and blockchain space — for the better. Zetlin-Jones told Cointelegraph that once the recovery begins, a new way has to be found:

    “We will need a more robust economy — one where supply chains are less dependent on a single producer, where workers are less dependent on the operations of a single firm, where individuals are less dependent on a single source of health care.” 

    These are effective movements toward a more decentralized world economy, in which blockchain technology seems uniquely poised to play a key role, Zetlin-Jones said. “They might speed up the demand for blockchain solutions and, therefore, [improve] the long-run viability of blockchains and their associated cryptocurrencies.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 04/02/2020 – 20:45

  • "Pandemic Drones" Can Now Detect Fever and Coughing 
    “Pandemic Drones” Can Now Detect Fever and Coughing 

    The COVID-19 outbreak is proving to be the Trojan horse that justifies the ushering in of the surveillance state. We’ve noted how governments and corporations are quickly deploying big data and spy tools to monitor people during the pandemic.

    The war on terror, the war on drugs, the war on illegal immigration, and now the war on COVID-19: all start out as legitimate responses but then are used by politicians to increase the surveillance state and erode any freedoms citizens have left. 

    What’s coming to America in the not too distant future is a full-blown surveillance state, that could be on par with China’s. In particular, we want to show ZeroHedge readers what could be coming down the pipe: That is, “pandemic drones” outfitted with specialized sensor and computer vision system that can fly around cities and detect if people have elevated body temperatures, respiratory rates, as well as to identify if people are sneezing and coughing (all signs of a COVID-19 carrier)

    A US-based drone company called Dragonfly is spearheading the effort to build a drone network across public areas to detect infected people. The drone network is called the “global early warning system” that would be able to spot the first signs of a pandemic. 

    Dragonfly was recently selected by Vital Intelligence, a healthcare data services and deep learning company in conjunction with the University of South Australia, to “immediately commercialize” pandemic drones to monitor people in public areas.

    “Draganfly is honored to work on such an important project given the current pandemic facing the world with COVID-19. Health and respiratory monitoring will be vital for not only detection, but also utilizing the data to understand health trends. As we move forward, drones and autonomous technology doing detection will be an important part of ensuring public safety,” said Andy Card, Director of Draganfly and former Secretary of Transportation and White House Chief of Staff.

    As shown below, the pandemic drone can easily detect breathing rate, heart rate, body temperature, and if the person is sneezing and coughing – all signs that could point to a COIVD-19 carrier. 

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    Here’s Dragonfly’s video showing the drone in action: 

    On Monday, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb told CNBC that the US must build a “massive surveillance system” to detect where the virus might be spreading next – and maybe one of the best ways to monitor large swaths of the population could be through the use of pandemic drones across major US metropolitan cities. 

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    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 04/02/2020 – 20:25

  • "50-Cent" Shifts Away From VIX 'Catastrophe Insurance': "Gold Is Now The Right Place To Be For Battles Ahead"
    “50-Cent” Shifts Away From VIX ‘Catastrophe Insurance’: “Gold Is Now The Right Place To Be For Battles Ahead”

    Having  ‘come out’ as the infamous VIX-whale “50-Cent,” London-based fund manager Jonathan Ruffer has called it quits on his VIX-call-buying strategy:

    “In sum, the catastrophe insurance did absolutely everything that might be expected of it. And it is now spent. It is likely to be some time before this insurance again prices at levels that makes it attractive as a defensive investment.

    So what is he looking at now, and what does the future hold?

    The next defence was – and still is – a position in credit spreads. These spreads reflect the difference in yield between, say, a government bond, and a high-quality corporate bond. For years the spreads had been falling – a phenomenon which occurred in the UK in 1936 – and for exactly the same reason. As interest rates came down, the reality of the diminishing income was more eloquent than the shadow of the fear that a less-sound borrower might default. Victorian grandees wanted to know what their future daughters-in-law were worth – worth was expressed as an income figure, not as capital – and her Ladyship would want a second question answered: was this income from government Consols, or something flakier?

    Our investments in credit spreads have protected the overall values of the portfolios, as conventional asset prices have tumbled. As I write, there still seems a good deal more mileage in this idea – we had positioned ourselves just outside the ‘safest’ corporates, as these could be the beneficiaries of Federal Reserve intervention. The Fed has intervened, and it will be interesting to know whether this does in fact stabilise the corporate bond market.

    Our equities have borne the brunt of the grief, as they did in Q4 2018, falling by every bit as much as the overall indices. We were caught out then because action by the Fed meant that the markets recovered sufficiently to neutralise the effectiveness of our protective investments. This time round, our equity positions would have saved us a fair bit of money if they had performed better. It is worth peering into this part of the portfolios. Commentators divide the market into ‘momentum’ – stocks whose share price pattern is favourable – and value. Generally speaking, the best companies will be in the momentum bucket, and Fred Karno’s army relegated to value.

    For the last decade, the gulf between momentum and value stocks has grown wider, and unprecedently so. Some of this may well be justified, as the techie carnivores eat up the Laura Ashleys of this world. But much of it is due to the fact that, recently, more money has come into equity markets through ETFs (exchange traded funds, a passive move to ‘buy the index’) than by specific analysis of each company’s prospects. Many have laughed bitterly at the fund management industry for being sent to the cleaners by index performers. It’s true that we are pretty hopeless, but one would expect a cheap ETF to be in the middle of the fifth decile (about 45th out of a hundred) – its performance median, but, being cheaper, better than an active fund manager who is trying to do the same thing. It feels to us as if the ETF phenomenon is beginning to unravel: they do not always trade at asset value any more, and there could be widespread liquidations. As this happens, momentum stocks will lead the markets lower, since that is where the indices are most heavily weighted.

    There was more to our emphasis on ‘value’ stocks, than the ‘less bad’ aspect. The unprecedented monetary looseness in the period since the 2008 crisis has always meant that the economy might find traction – and if it had done, then these companies would have prospered, some of them mightily. Ironically, we believed that 2020 itself was going to be a year when world economies coordinated into a pattern of significant growth. Just as the fat lady reached for the high C, the platform collapsed.

    Elsewhere, gold has been somewhat disappointing, with its performance weighed down by forced sellers.

    But we think gold is the right place to be for the battles ahead.

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    Where do we go from here?

    Mercifully, I have left myself little space for the humiliation of calling the future. Until the market becomes calmer, it will suffer all the vagaries of a civil war.

    The biggest danger comes from an overwhelming desire in all of us to ‘buy the dips’.

    In the old days, that was right – and wrong – pretty much 50% of the time.

    Since Alan Greenspan, chair of the Federal Reserve, began medicating the markets after the 1987 crash, it has always – always – been right to do so.

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    Not many of us old-timers who acquired our hard wiring before 1987 are left; I started as a stockbroker in 1972, when a falling stock market was friendless, and bad news was pretty much just that – bad.

    Buying the dips is predicated on the assumption that bad news is in fact good news since it opens up Uncle Sam’s pocketbook. Now debt is so great, and the promises needed so egregious, that there has to be a question mark over the efficacy of the pocketbook.

    Any loss of confidence in the value of the collateral will manifest itself in a fear of inflation, since money is an expression of confidence in a token (fiat money, it is called – the divine ‘let it be’) – and if that confidence is lost, it ceases to do its job as a store of value.

    What is clear is that central banks and governments will use whatever firepower they have – even if it turns out that their cheques are blank.

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    Accordingly, we have increased again our holdings in inflation-linked bonds (notably in the US). These will be a proper protection against a grinding bear market in money, in savings, in prosperity. The time is moving on from a world where we had to protect against sudden shocks – catastrophe insurance is behind us, job done. The investment landscape is going to become much more familiar, but it will only be a homecoming to the greybeards (what’s the gender neutral word for this? The mind boggles) who have lived it before.

    Thirty-three years is a long detour – and for many it will have proved a cul-de-sac. It is difficult to master old tricks, secondhand, but my prediction is that it will prove a valuable quality over the next longish while.

    Lastly, I want to express a personal view. It’s one which reflects that of all of us at Ruffer – of gratitude to you for sticking it out over the lean times. To do so, you had to trust us that a shock was on the way, and that we would rise to meet it. (I had more confidence in the first of those than the second…). The battle to keep clients safe is not won – alas, it is never won. But the first onslaught of a bear market has been successfully navigated, and this review ends with a reiteration of our investment priorities – first and second, to keep portfolios safe, third, to make them sing.

    *  *  *

    In January – amid the roaring meltup in stocks – Ruffer proclaimed:

    “the central plank of what we’re doing – that there’s a dislocation ahead, speaking of wealth-destruction and illiquidity – well, our sureness of that makes us lions!”

    His firm’s philosophy is built around the fact that clients love making money, but they hate losing it more than they like making it… something we suspect many “gurus” who have ‘come-up’ in the last decade of central bank largesse are about to discover this lesson the hard way.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 04/02/2020 – 20:05

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 2nd April 2020

  • Panama Introduces Gender-Based Lockdown As COVID-19-Death-Toll Rises
    Panama Introduces Gender-Based Lockdown As COVID-19-Death-Toll Rises

    Panama has so far recorded 1,181 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 30 deaths. The Central American country, bordering both the Caribbean Sea and the North Pacific Ocean, between Colombia and Costa Rica, has gone into mandatory lockdown to halt the spread of the virus. 

    Panama has taken unprecedented measures to flatten the pandemic curve, as its containment efforts are to alleviate hospitals from becoming overwhelmed. The government announced on Tuesday that new strict quarantine measures would be gender-based:

    Starting on Wednesday, men and women will only be allowed to leave their homes for two hours at a time, and on different days, reported AFP.

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    The Central American country’s lockdown, until now, was not based on gender.

    “This absolute quarantine is for nothing more than to save your life,” security minister Juan Pino said at a press conference on Tuesday.

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    Men will be able to visit the supermarket or the pharmacy on Tuesdays, Thursdays, and Saturdays. As for women, they’re allowed to travel to stores on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays.

    As for Sundays, the holiest day of the week, no-one will be allowed to go outside. 

    The new gender-based lockdown is scheduled for the next two weeks.

    Pino said more than 2,000 people were detained last week for violating the national curfew.

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    Panamanian Public Forces were seen taking temperature readings of people and handing out food during the quarantine.

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    While countries across the world are taking unprecedented measures to prevent the virus spread, it seems Panama’s gender-based lockdown is undoubtedly a new one. 

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    We noted last week that much of the world remains in the accelerating period of the virus curve. And with lockdowns being extended across Europe and the US, it’s likely that many Central and South American countries will follow suit.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 04/02/2020 – 02:45

  • Sweden Begins To Abandon Liberal Coronavirus Approach As Deaths Surge
    Sweden Begins To Abandon Liberal Coronavirus Approach As Deaths Surge

    Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

    Having been one of the few European countries in the world not to impose a coronavirus lockdown, Sweden is now starting to abandon its liberal approach after a surge in deaths.

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    Up until now, Sweden had kept schools, bars, restaurants and cinemas open while only restricting gatherings that were over 50 people.

    People were encouraged to observe social distancing measures, but there were no quarantine protocols enforced by force of law and unlike its Scandinavian neighbors, Sweden’s borders remained open.

    Commentators warned that this was “like watching a horror movie” and that it would inevitably backfire.

    Now that Sweden has recorded 239 COVID-19 deaths, more than Norway, Finland and Denmark combined, the country’s left-wing government is finally imposing a stronger form of lockdown.

    “As the number of new cases and deaths from COVID-19 rises sharply in Sweden the government and the Public Health Agency have presented new measures for how people can further slow the spread of the novel coronavirus,” reports Radio Sweden.

    The new “guidelines” encourage people to avoid public transport during rush hours, advise shops to stagger the number of people they let in, and tell sports clubs to cancel all upcoming matches and tournaments.

    However, it doesn’t appear as though any of the measures will be enforced legally through police dispersal orders or fines.

    In other European countries like Spain, Italy and the UK, it is forbidden to go outside except for “essential” reasons.

    *  *  *

    My voice is being silenced by free speech-hating Silicon Valley behemoths who want me disappeared forever. It is CRUCIAL that you support me. Please sign up for the free newsletter here. Donate to me on SubscribeStar here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 04/02/2020 – 02:00

  • Watch: Riots Erupt In Israel As Police Enforce COVID-19 Quarantine, Synagogues Shuttered
    Watch: Riots Erupt In Israel As Police Enforce COVID-19 Quarantine, Synagogues Shuttered

    Israeli media is reporting that riots have broken out in Arab as well as some Jewish neighborhoods of Israel over quarantine enforcement. Particularly violent clashes in Jaffa also erupted after police confronted and tried to detain a man for reportedly breaking quarantine.

    “Dozens of people are demonstrating and rioting in Jaffa after police questioning of a man who apparently broke his mandatory self-quarantine led numerous residents to gather and confront the officers,” the Times of Israel reports. “Protesters are clashing with police, burning tires and blocking roads.”

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    At least four have been arrested so far, while confrontations with Israeli police have been filmed in other parts of Israel as well, over a week after Tel Aviv imposed some of the strictest quarantine measures the world has yet seen, which authorizes police to physically enforce court-ordered isolation of suspected and confirmed COVID-19 cases.

    “Not Ramallah, Jaffa!! (in Hebrew Yafo) — the above video of the rare Wednesday clashes is captioned.

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    Typically such scenes have more commonly played out in occupied Arab West Bank neighborhoods, but increasingly it’s also Israel’s ultra-Orthodox community which has tended to defy and flaunt national quarantine and self-isolation policies.

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    Police have in some cases moved to seal synagogues which ignored orders and stayed open, issuing fines to worshipers.

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    The Jerusalem Post reports the outbreak is set to get worse:

    Israel’s total number of cases is “going up in a steady way, and that is not so good,” Tal Brosh, head of infectious disease at Assuta Ashdod Medical Center, told The Jerusalem Post. “But that is also because the number of tests being done is increasing.”

    “My concern now is the haredim” who are not practicing social distancing, which could lead to a spike in cases “very quickly,” he said. “If Bnei Brak residents do not stop gathering at weddings, prayers, mikvaot… we could see a surge within a few weeks.”

    Conservative neighborhoods have come to view police quarantine enforcement as a severe violation of religious freedom.

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    There are increasing instances of rabbis and synagogues defying orders to conduct services across the country such as the following, according to The Jerusalem Post:

    Israel Police arrested six suspects belonging to the Peleg HaYerushalmi after they were found gathering in a synagogue in the Haredi city of Modi’in Illit, violating Health Ministry instructions issued to fight the coronavirus outbreak.

    The suspects refused to listen to police instructions to leave and refused to identify themselves and began clashing with police.

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    The below video is from the Orthodox stronghold of Beit Shemesh, located 19 milies west of Jerusalem, during clashes with police:

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    A number of local outbreaks in Israeli cities have been traced to crowded and in some cases still-operating synagogues.

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    Coronavirus test site for the residents of Bnei Brak, via Jerusalem Post.

    Towns close to more ultra-conservative neighborhoods have increasingly petitioned state authorities to crack down

    Ramat Gan Mayor Carmel Shama-Hacohen has written a letter to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other government officials demanding a general closure on the neighboring city of Bnei Brak, which has become one of the main coronavirus hotspots in the country.

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    Nationwide Israel is fast approaching 6,000 cases, among these 25 deaths, with numbers expected to climb much higher in the days ahead due to expanded testing.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 04/02/2020 – 01:00

  • Draconian Lockdown Powers: It's A Slippery Slope From Handwashing To House Arrest
    Draconian Lockdown Powers: It’s A Slippery Slope From Handwashing To House Arrest

    Authored by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    “Everything can be taken from a man but one thing: the last of the human freedoms — to choose one’s attitude in any given set of circumstances, to choose one’s own way.”

    – Viktor Frankl

    We still have choices.

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    Just because we’re fighting an unseen enemy in the form of a virus doesn’t mean we have to relinquish every shred of our humanity, our common sense, or our freedoms to a nanny state that thinks it can do a better job of keeping us safe.

    Whatever we give up willingly now—whether it’s basic human decency, the ability to manage our private affairs, the right to have a say in how the government navigates this crisis, or the few rights still left to us that haven’t been disemboweled in recent years by a power-hungry police state—we won’t get back so easily once this crisis is past.

    The government never cedes power willingly.

    Neither should we.

    Every day brings a drastic new set of restrictions by government bodies (most have been delivered by way of executive orders) at the local, state and federal level that are eager to flex their muscles for the so-called “good” of the populace.

    This is where we run the risk of this whole fly-by-night operation going completely off the rails.

    It’s one thing to attempt an experiment in social distancing in order to flatten the curve of this virus because we can’t afford to risk overwhelming the hospitals and exposing the most vulnerable in the nation to unavoidable loss of life scenarios. However, there’s a fine line between strongly worded suggestions for citizens to voluntarily stay at home and strong-armed house arrest orders with penalties in place for non-compliance.

    More than three-quarters of all Americans have now been ordered to stay at home and that number is growing as more states fall in line.

    Schools have cancelled physical classes, many for the remainder of the academic year.

    Many of the states have banned gatherings of more than 10 people.

    At least three states (Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania) have ordered non-essential businesses to close.

    In Washington, DC, residents face 90 days in jail and a $5,000 fine if they leave their homes during the coronavirus outbreak. Residents of Maryland, Hawaii and Washington State also risk severe penalties of up to a year in prison and a $5,000 fine for violating the stay-at-home orders. Violators in Alaska could face jail time and up to $25,000 in fines.

    Kentucky residents are prohibited from traveling outside the state, with a few exceptions.

    New York City, the epicenter of the COVID-19 outbreak in the U.S., is offering its Rikers Island prisoners $6 an hour to help dig mass graves.

    In San Franciscocannabis dispensaries were included among the essential businesses allowed to keep operating during the city-wide lockdown.

    New Jersey’s governor canceled gatherings of any number, including parties, weddings and religious ceremonies, and warned the restrictions could continue for weeks or months. One city actually threatened to prosecute residents who spread false information about the virus.

    Oregon banned all nonessential social and recreational gatherings, regardless of size.

    Rhode Island has given police the go-ahead to pull over anyone with New York license plates to record their contact information and order them to self-quarantine for 14 days. 

    South Carolina’s police have been empowered to break up any public gatherings of more than three people.

    Of course, there are exceptions to all of these stay-at-home orders (in more than 30 states and counting), the longest of which runs until June 10. Essential workers (doctors, firefighters, police and grocery store workers) can go to work. Everyone else will have to fit themselves into a variety of exceptions in order to leave their homes: for grocery runs, doctor visits, to get exercise, to visit a family member, etc.

    Throughout the country, more than 14,000 “Citizen-Soldiers” of the National Guard have been mobilized to support the states and the federal government in their fight against the coronavirus. While the Guard officials insist they have not been tasked with martial law, they are coordinating with the Pentagon, FEMA and the states/territories on COVID-19 response missions.

    A quick civics lesson: Martial law is a raw exercise of executive power that can override the other branches of government and assume control over the functioning of a nation, state, or smaller area within a state. The power has been exercised by the president, as President Lincoln did soon after the start of the Civil War, and by governors, as was done in Idaho to quell a miner’s strike that broke out there in 1892.

    In areas under martial law, all power rests with the military authority in charge. As British General Wellington wrote, “martial law” is not law at all, but martial rule; it abolishes all law and substitutes for it the will of the military commander. Military personnel are not bound by constitutional restrictions requiring a warrant, and may enter and search homes at without judicial authorization or oversight. Indeed, civil courts would no longer be functioning to hear citizen complaints or to enforce their constitutional rights.

    Thus far, we have not breached the Constitution’s crisis point: martial law has yet to be overtly imposed (although an argument could be made to the contrary given the militarized nature of the American police state).

    It’s just a matter of time before all hell breaks loose.

    If this is not the defining point at which we cross over into all-out totalitarianism, then it is at a minimum a test to see how easily we will surrender.

    Curiously enough, although Americans have been generally compliant with the government’s suggestions and orders with a few notable exceptions, there’s been a small groundswell of resistance within parts of the religious community over whether churches, synagogues and other religious institutions that hold worship services should be exempt from state-wide bans on mass gatherings. While many churches have resorted to drive-in services and live-streamed services for its congregants, others have refused to close their doors. One pastor of a 4,000-member church who stood his ground, claiming that the government’s orders violate his right to religious freedom, was arrested after holding multiple church services during which attendees were reportedly given hand sanitizer and made to keep a six-foot distance between family groups.

    It’s an interesting test of the First Amendment’s freedom of assembly and religious freedom clauses versus the government’s compelling state interest in prohibiting mass gatherings in order to prevent the spread of the virus.

    Generally, the government has to show a compelling state interest before it can override certain critical rights such as free speech, assembly, press, search and seizure, etc. Most of the time, it lacks that compelling state interest, but it still manages to violate those rights, setting itself up for legal battles further down the road.

    These lockdown measures—on the right of the people to peaceably assemble, to travel, to engage in commerce, etc.—unquestionably restrict fundamental constitutional rights, which might pass muster for a short period of time, but can it be sustained for longer stretches legally?

    That’s the challenge before us, of course, if these days and weeks potentially stretch into months-long quarantines.

    For example, the First Amendment guarantees “the right of the people peaceably to assemble.”  While the freedom to travel has been specifically recognized only as in the context of interstate or international travel, the freedom of movement is implicit liberty given that government agents may not stop and question or search persons unless they have some legal justification. 

    As Supreme Court Justice William Douglas once wrote:

    The right to travel is a part of the “liberty” of which the citizen cannot be deprived without the due process of law under the Fifth Amendment. . . .  Freedom of movement across frontiers in either direction, and inside frontiers as well, was a part of our heritage. Travel abroad, like travel within the country, may be necessary for a livelihood. It may be as close to the heart of the individual as the choice of what he eats, or wears, or reads. Freedom of movement is basic in our scheme of values.

    As a rule, people are free to roam and loiter in public places and are not required to provide police with their identity or give an account of their purpose for exercising their freedom.

    However, as with all constitutional rights, these freedoms, as the Courts have ruled, are not unqualified. Even content-based restrictions on speech are allowed under the First Amendment if the restriction is needed to serve a compelling government interest.

    The Supreme Court long ago “distinctly recognized the authority of a state to enact quarantine laws and health laws of every description[.]” Such laws are an exercise of the state’s police power, and if there is a rational basis for believing they are needed to protect the public health, they will be deemed to serve a compelling government interest.

    The point was made over 100 years ago in circumstances similar to today’s COVID-19 outbreak when a smallpox outbreak occurred in Cambridge, Mass., invoking a state law allowing localities to make vaccinations mandatory and enforceable by criminal penalties.  In upholding the law and local order against a claim that it violated the constitutional liberty to control one’s own body and health, the Supreme Court declared:

    The possession and enjoyment of all rights are subject to such reasonable conditions as may be deemed by the governing authority of the country essential to the safety, health, peace, good order, and morals of the community. Even liberty itself, the greatest of all rights, is not unrestricted license to act according to one’s own will.

    The Court went on to write that “[u]pon the principle of self-defense, of paramount necessity, a community has the right to protect itself against an epidemic of disease which threatens the safety of its members.”

    Most states have enacted laws that recognize the need for prompt action in times of emergency, including epidemics, and have delegated the authority to and executive officer to take action to address that emergency.  For example, Tennessee law provides that the governor is given the power to issue orders that have the force and effect of law to address emergencies, which include disease outbreaks and epidemics. That state’s law similarly grants mayors or other local chief executive officers the power to issue orders and directives deemed necessary, including closing public facilities, in order to address civil emergencies. 

    Courts have ruled that they will defer to the decisions of an executive authority on the decision as to whether an emergency exists and whether the means employed to address the emergency are reasonable and legal, although there could be situations where a court would declare that the executive decision is arbitrary and unreasonable.

    When governments act under their police power to control plagues and epidemics, those laws are valid even though they may restrict individuals in the exercise of constitutional rights.  As one legal scholar recently noted, the balance between individual rights and protection of the public “assumes that there will be times when there are truly compelling emergencies justifying severe measures. A global pandemic that spreads even among those who are asymptomatic and could exceed the capacity of the American health care system would appear to be just such a compelling situation.”

    At the moment, the government believes it has a compelling interest—albeit a temporary one—in restricting gatherings, assemblies and movement in public in order to minimize the spread of this virus.

    The key point is this: while we may tolerate these restrictions on our liberties in the short term, we should never fail to be on guard lest these one-time constraints become a slippery slope to a total lockdown mindset.

    What we must guard against, more than ever before, is the tendency to become so accustomed to our prison walls—these lockdowns, authoritarian dictates, and police state tactics justified as necessary for national security—that we allow the government to keep having its way in all things, without any civic resistance or objections being raised.

    Martin Niemoller learned that particular lesson the hard way.

    A German military officer turned theologian, Niemoller was an early supporter of Hitler’s rise to power, having believed his promises to protect the church and not allow pogroms against the Jewish people. It didn’t take long for Hitler to break those promises, but by the time the German people realized they had been double-crossed, it was too late.

    As Niemoller warned:

    “First they came for the Socialists, and I did not speak out—Because I was not a Socialist. Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and I did not speak out—Because I was not a Trade Unionist. Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—Because I was not a Jew. Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.”

    The lesson for those of us housebound and watching from a distance as the Fourth Reich emerges from the shadows is this: all freedoms hang together.

    Niemoller’s warning for our modern age would probably go something like this:

    First the government went after the right to be free from unreasonable searches and seizures, and I did not object, because I had nothing to hide. Then they went after the right to not be spied upon, and I did not object, because I had done nothing wrong. Then they went after the right to criticize the government, and I still did not object, because I had nothing to criticize them for. Then they went after the right to speak—worship—and assemble freely, and I did not object, because I had nothing to say, no one to worship, and nowhere to congregate. By the time the government came to lock me up, there was no one left to set me free.

    In other words, don’t be naïve: the government will use this crisis to expand its powers far beyond the reach of the Constitution. The Justice Department has already signaled its desire to suspend parts of the Constitution indefinitely.

    That’s how it starts.

    Travel too far down that slippery slope, and there will be no turning back.

    Curiously enough, although Americans have not been inclined to agree on anything much lately, given the extreme polarization of the country politically, a recent survey indicates that “people of both parties seem rather okay with undermining core civil liberties in order to fight the pandemic.”

    This way lies madness.

    As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, if you wait to speak out—stand up—and resist until the government’s lockdowns impact your freedoms personally, it could be too late.

    What would be far worse, however, is handing over your freedoms voluntarily—without even a semblance of protest—to a government that cares little to nothing about your freedoms or your lives.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 04/02/2020 – 00:05

  • Broken Markets: A Visual Odyssey Through All The Market's Dislocations In 56 Charts
    Broken Markets: A Visual Odyssey Through All The Market’s Dislocations In 56 Charts

    Instead of narrating – often in mind-numbing detail – how broken markets are, for once we will let the charts do the talking. In the visual odyssey through today’s  broken market, we summarize various measures of market dislocation and stress across asset classes.

    Some highlights:

    • In DM credit markets, the CDX-cash basis in both IG and HY has compressed notably but remain at historical wides. Agency MBS OAS has reversed much of the widening, while CLO and ABS OAS continue to tighten.

    • In the rates market, some pressure in front-end funding markets has begun to abate with some of the announced Fed facilities underway, visible in the recent stabilization of cross-currency bases. However, unsecured front-end spreads (such as CP and Libor) on the whole remain at elevated levels.

    • In emerging markets, while cross-currency bases on average have reversed most of the recent widening, swap spreads remain notably wider.

    • In equity markets, market depth and liquidity remain dismal.

    Going down the list, first we show the most notable dislocations and moves in Developed Credit Markets.

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    Next up are Rates markets.

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    Equities:

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    FX markets:

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    And finally, Emerging Markets

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    Charts: Goldman


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 04/01/2020 – 23:45

  • Credit Crisis Averted… Monetary Crisis Initiated
    Credit Crisis Averted… Monetary Crisis Initiated

    Via GoldMoney Insights,

    The Fed seems to have managed to halt the massive dollar squeeze and the associated strength in nominal yields and real-interest rate expectations.  This has led to a reversal of the rather peculiar gold sell-off that started in early March. We think this short-term win for the Fed to come at the expense of sharp currency depreciation over the medium term. We expect this to be very bullish gold medium term.

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    Just a week ago, we published a report with the title “What is holding gold back?” (What is holding gold back, 20 March 2020). In that report, we analyzed the odd downward move in gold since early March amidst a global pandemic, crashing equities, unchecked central bank intervention and the prospect for the largest fiscal stimulus bills the world has ever seen. We conclude that the main reason for this sell-off – a sharp rise in real-interest rate expectations – was temporary and could turn on a dime. We didn’t have to wait long.

    In order to get a better understanding of what was going on, in last week’s report, we took a closer look at the main drivers of gold prices, which we had identified in our gold price framework (Gold Price Framework Vol. 1: Price Model8 October 2015). What we found was that a sharp spike in real-interest rate expectations was mostly responsible for the move from $1700 to $1450. As we noted in our March 20 report:

    Starting in late February, 10-year Treasury yields began to move sharply lower, in anticipation of Fed rate cuts. The Fed delivered in an emergency meeting on March 3, cutting rates by 50bp. Rates continued to move lower until March 9, 2020. By that time, 10-year treasury yields had fallen to just 55bps. However, simultaneously, long-term inflation expectations also began to fall sharply. By March 9, 10-year breakeven inflation expectations were just 1%. However, what happened next must have been a bit of a shock to the Fed. 10-year treasury yields began to rise. The Fed held a second emergency meeting on March 15, 2020, where it cut rates to zero. But this didn’t stop nominal yields, By March 19, 2020, 10-year treasuries rallied back to 1.15%. At the same time, long-term inflation expectations continued to collapse and are currently at just 0.5%.

    The collapse in inflation expectations and the rise in nominal yields pushed real-interest rate expectations from -.057% to +0.55%. This is what caused the $250/ozt price decline in just 7 days (see Exhibit 1).

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    Importantly, this sharp rise in nominal interest rates and real-interest rate expectations happened amidst an extreme strength in the dollar. In our report, we also highlighted that in our view, the dollar strength and the sharp upward move in USD real-interest rate expectations were two sides of the same coin, caused by the massive shockwaves penetrating the financial system which led to an unprecedented demand for USD.

    As we expected the Fed to continue to intervene and to do whatever it takes to get this dollar strength under control, in our view the strength in real-interest rate expectations was temporary and could turn on a dime. This is exactly what happened when the Fed announced open-ended QE three days later. This desperate measure seems to have achieved what the Fed was aiming for; namely stopping this dollar strength (and consequently, the rise in nominal and real-interest rates). At the same time, a gigantic $2tn stimulus package has been passed by the senate.

    On the day of publishing of our report (20 March 2020), real-interest rate expectations and the dollar had already shown some signs of easing. Over the subsequent 3 days, we saw a massive reversal of this short-term dollar and rate strength, and as a result, gold prices rallied >$150/ozt from the lows (see Exhibit 2).

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    So, what’s next? We think this is just the beginning. The dollar tightness seems to be easing, but it will require the Fed to remain a permanent buyer of bonds. This will inevitably lead to a large expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet, at least similar in size to the expansion in the years 2008 to 2014. In fact, the speed at which the Fed was forced to expand its balance sheet last week is staggering. The Fed’s balance sheet rose from $0.9tn in summer 2008 to $2.0tn a year later, an increase of $1.1tn. It took the Fed just 4 weeks to do the same (see Exhibit 3). And we haven’t even received the latest numbers yet.

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    As for fiscal stimulus, the current $2tn will almost certainly not be the last package to be passed. Equity markets greeted the bill pre-emptively with a >10% rally, but since then, equity prices have stalled again. Given our view that the global economy had been slowing down sharply prior to the coronavirus outbreak, a roaring comeback of the economy, once the virus itself subsides, is unlikely. Hence, we expect more and most likely larger fiscal stimulus bills over the coming months.

    On top of that, we are seeing a run on physical bars while at the same time, supply has become tight. The widespread lockdown due to the Coronavirus outbreak led to the shutdown of many refiners. Physical gold is also trapped at the wrong locations as usually bullion is shipped with commercial flights, which are now grounded.  Many coin and bar dealers indicate huge premiums, or, are even sold out. Major Swiss banks have opened waiting lists for their clients wanting to buy physical bars. Over the past days we have also witnessed an epic short squeeze in the futures market as Goldmoney Head of Research Alasdair Macleod wrote in his latest market report (Bear squeeze on bullion banks27 March 2020).

    We believe this to be the beginning of a substantial currency devaluation cycle. While the pressure on the dollar will be particularly large, other central banks will be unlikely to let their currencies massively appreciate against the dollar. We also expect fiscal stimulus packages (similar in relative size to the US) in most countries over the coming months. Hence, we expect all fiat currencies to substantially depreciate over the coming years.

    There are no central banks that can print gold and other precious metals; hence, we expect substantial price gains over the coming years. In our last report, we set $2600 as the minimum target for gold over the medium term, but we also highlighted that this is the price target if central banks manage to kick the can down the road one more time (see Exhibit 4).

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    As this crisis rapidly unfolds, the risks for the alternative outcome – central banks are losing control over inflation – are steadily increasing.


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 04/01/2020 – 23:25

  • Is America Preparing For Civil War?
    Is America Preparing For Civil War?

    “The jump has no precedent in recorded history…” is how one analyst described the stunning surge in estimated firearm sales indicated by data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System latest report.

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    While actual gun purchases aren’t tracked in the U.S., the FBI system is largely considered a proxy for sales by the firearms industry and the table shows a 41% surge year-over-year (and a 33% spike month-over-month).

    Jurgen Brauer, chief economist at Small Arms Analytics, told Bloomberg News, that handgun sales increased 91.1% year-over-year, per Brauer’s analysis, and long-gun sales were up 73.6%.

    “We expect continued positive headline growth numbers in coming months as Covid-19 uncertainty lingers,” Brett Andress, a firearms industry analyst at KeyBank Capital, wrote in a note on Wednesday afternoon, according to Bloomberg.

    What does that look like?

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    The last time demand for protection even came close to this was the last three months of 2015 as a spate of mass shootings in the US put tougher gun controls back in the national spotlight.

    The motivation for this sudden surge is evidently a concern that the current (and expanding) lockdown being enforced across The Land of The Free is rapidly transformed into a far more tyrannical control over Americans’ constitutional rights.

    “The government is trying to do everything it can to keep society intact. But if society is unraveling, it’s up to us to protect ourselves,” said Andrew Dominguez, 36, a real estate agent in Pacifica who waited near the end of the slow-moving line to buy ammo for his shotgun.

    John Chen, 40, agreed. He lives in Oakland but has construction outlets around the Bay Area, including in Pacifica. He was at City Arms to buy his first pistol for personal defense.

    “This virus gave me the motivation,” Chen said.

    “I’ve always wanted to have a gun, but I’ve been lazy. I see the news now, and the outbreak and the chaos.”

    Jackson Lu, 24, came bounding out of the gun store, carrying a new $500 Glock 19 in its black plastic case. He wasn’t about to open it to show it off, though.

    “I feel like there’s a lot of crazy stuff happening around the world,” he said. “I want to feel safe.”

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    Don’t think it could happen?

    As a reminder, just last week, Los Angeles County Sheriff Alex Villanueva attempted to shutdown all gun stores (on the basis of safety concerns).

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    However, facing a lawsuit over his controversial decision, he has now changed his mind, citing a federal ruling that gun stores are considered “essential.”

    The post-COVID-19 future is looking grim: economic collapse, censorship, production control, soaring surveillance, and increasingly martial law. So which dystopian future are we headed for?

    It’s not like we weren’t warned humanity was heading south, however, and there’s a lot more doomsaying to explore beyond Orwell and Huxley…and, as Helen Boyniski notes, our curious historical moment owes just as much to some lesser-known nightmare futures, and since we’re all stuck indoors under coronavirus quarantine, we might as well get familiar with the ins and outs of some of these lesser-known dystopias.

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    At the very least, it will prepare us for what might be in store post-pandemic. 

    As we detailed earlier, it’s only matter of time before this lockdown of American – leaving citizens jobless, broke, and without options – become the flashpoint that leads to an explosion of civil unrest and violent crime.


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 04/01/2020 – 23:22

  • China Reports Surge In Divorces As Marriages Crumbled Under Lockdown, Dashing Hopes For 'Baby Boom'
    China Reports Surge In Divorces As Marriages Crumbled Under Lockdown, Dashing Hopes For ‘Baby Boom’

    As China lifts its lockdown rules and the country gradually gets ‘back to normal’ following the outbreak of novel coronavirus and COVID-19, Bloomberg News reports that divorce rates have suddenly jumped as the quarantines caused unprecedented levels of interpersonal strike that was more than many marriages could withstand.

    Arguments over money, children, household duties and suspicions of infidelity festered in many homes, driving many couples apart.

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    One Shanghai divorce lawyer said cases started climbing shortly after the lockdowns ended. The outbreak, combined with the Lunar New Year holiday, was just too much for some couples, forced to spend weeks trapped together, sometimes along with extended family, was just too much.

    Shanghai divorce lawyer Steve Li at Gentle & Trust Law Firm says his caseload has increased 25% since the city’s lockdown eased in mid-March. Infidelity used to be the No. 1 reason clients showed up at his office door, he says, adding that “people have time to have love affairs when they’re not at home.” Like Christmas in the West, China’s multiday Lunar New Year holiday can strain familial bonds. When the virus hit in late January, on the eve of the festivities, couples in many cities had to endure an additional two months trapped under the same roof, sometimes with extended family. For many it was too much. “The more time they spent together, the more they hate each other,” Li says of his new cases. “People need space. Not just for couples—this applies to everybody.”

    China only publishes data on divorce rates once a year, but there’s been a wealth of anecdotal and preliminary indicators suggesting that the lockdowns led to a surge, as well as a wealth of data reports from individual cities backing this up. At this point, it’s safe to say it’s a nation-wide trend (or at least for the half of the population – 760 million – who were impacted by the lockdowns and restrictions on movement).

    But more alarming, is that the situation on Greenland, where a “surge” in domestic violence cases led to a ban on alcohol sales, isn’t isolated to Greenland, apparently. Across China, incidents of domestic violence also multiplied. The trend may be an ominous warning for couples in the US and Europe who are still in the relatively early stages of isolation.

    Hopefully, we don’t see too many couples re-enacting those scenes from “the Shining” in their living rooms. But it seems likely incidents will rise in the US and elsewhere.

    Two provinces that reported sharp rises in divorce filings told BBG that simple trivial matters ended up becoming deal-breakers for many companies. In many cases, poor communication skills were to blame. It’s just a lesson for individuals: Communication truly is critical for a healthy marriage.

    The city of Xian, in central China, and Dazhou, in Sichuan province, both reported record-high numbers of divorce filings in early March, leading to long backlogs at government offices. In Hunan province’s Miluo, “staff members didn’t even have time to drink water” because so many couples lined up to file, according to a report in mid-March on the city government website. Clerks struggled to keep up, processing a record number in a single day, it said. “Trivial matters in life led to the escalation of conflicts, and poor communication has caused everyone to be disappointed in marriage and make the decision to divorce,” the city registration center’s director, Yi Xiaoyan, was quoted as saying.

    As China’s economy as grown, divorce rates have climbed, much as they did in the US during the 60s, 70s and 80s.

    China’s divorce rate has been ticking up steadily since 2003, when laws were liberalized. More than 1.3 million couples divorced that year, and the numbers rose gradually for 15 years, peaking at 4.5 million in 2018, according to statistics from the Ministry of Civil Affairs. Last year, 4.15 million Chinese couples untied the knot.

    Ironically, Chinese officials had hoped that locking up couples with nothing else to do for two months would lead to a mini ‘baby boom’ – of course, we’ve seen no shortage of speculation about a similar boom in the US. But these divorces are the first sign that the effect might indeed be the opposite: Instead of a jump in birth rates, divorces will skyrocket.

    Unless that shortage in condoms lasts longer than we expect.


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 04/01/2020 – 23:05

  • US Sues To Unwind Altria's $12.8 BN Investment In Juul
    US Sues To Unwind Altria’s $12.8 BN Investment In Juul

    Back when Altria first announced it had jumped on the e-smoking bandwagon by purchasing a 35% stake in vaping startup Juul, we warned that it would end in tears. Little did we know just how many tears, and how much destroyed value less than two years later we would witness. But more importantly, we have also found the one industry that will not get a single dollar in bailout money.

    Late on Wednesday, the Federal Trade Commission sued to unwind Altria’s $12.8bn investment into Juul, claiming the tobacco giant bought the stake to unlawfully eliminate competition in the sale of e-cigarettes.

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    This, of course, is ironic considering the shambolic state of the e-cig market. Nonetheless, the FTC’s claims are the latest blow to a deal that was doomed ever since Altria first announced its interest in first struck in 2018 when Altria acquired just over a third in Juul. Since then, Altria has written off almost its entire investment as regulatory scrutiny over Juul’s marketing and the health effects of their products has mounted.

    As the FT reports, the FTC alleged Altria bought the stake in Juul in an attempt to defuse the start-up’s challenge to its own line of e-cigarette products. In addition to the stake, the 2018 deal gave Altria board access and included a six-year non-compete agreement.

    “For several years, Altria and Juul were competitors in the market for closed-system e-cigarettes. By the end of 2018, Altria orchestrated its exit from the e-cigarette market and became Juul’s largest investor,” said Ian Conner, director of the FTC’s bureau of competition, in a statement. “Altria and Juul turned from competitors to collaborators by eliminating competition and sharing in Juul’s profits,” he added.

    In response, Altria’s general counsel Murray Garnick said that “we believe that our investment in Juul does not harm competition and that the FTC misunderstood the facts,” adding that “we are disappointed with the FTC’s decision, believe we have a strong defence and will vigorously defend our investment”, although it wasn’t clear what investment there is left to defend.

    The claims which were made in a complaint in the FTC’s internal administrative court follow a $4.5 billion writedown Altria made to that investment last year and a subsequent $4.1 billion charge in January, when it also scaled back its partnership with Juul. Altria, the parent of Marlboro-owner Philip Morris USA, has since ceased the sales and distribution services it had provided the San Francisco-based company.

    The amended agreement announced in January also allowed Altria to resume developing e-cigarettes under certain circumstances, including if the value of its investment in Juul fell below $1.3 billion, a more than 90% drop on the initial deal. That trigger has almost certainly been met: Juul, which was valued at $38 billion after Altria’s initial investment, has suffered a crushing decline as federal and state authorities have increased scrutiny of vaping among teenagers.

    Amusingly, KC Crosthwaite, Juul’s chief executive, told employees this year that the company’s internal valuation stood at $20bn at the end of the fourth quarter, down from $24bn in the previous quarter. Good luck finding a buyer at that price.

    Juul’s flavoured e-cigarette products have been accused of driving widespread vaping by young people, something which was obvious would happen to everyone except – unfortunately – the FDA. Juul discontinued most of its flavoured line last year ahead of a federal ban on flavoured e-cigarettes earlier this year.E-cigarette makers are in the process of seeking Food and Drug Administration approval for their products to stay on the market.

    Fast forward to today, when on the verge of extinction, E-cigarette makers are seeking Food and Drug Administration approval for their products to stay on the market. The FDA this week asked a federal court for a four-month extension to a May deadline for submissions by e-cigarette companies, saying the global outbreak of coronavirus had halted necessary laboratory work.

    As the FT concludes, the attempt by the FTC to unwind the investment comes as it increases scrutiny of completed deals involving start-ups. In February, the agency announced a study into a decade of such transactions by large technology companies.

     


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 04/01/2020 – 22:58

  • You Are Being Tracked… More Than Ever Before
    You Are Being Tracked… More Than Ever Before

    Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

    The United States government has rolled out incredibly totalitarian measures that amount to human rights violations in an effort to slow the spread of the coronavirus.  Unfortunately, long after this pandemic is a distance memory, the authoritarian controls will still be in place.

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    Local governments and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have received the anonymized data about people in areas of “geographic interest,” with the aim being to create a portal of geolocation information for 500 cities across the country. The development follows reports of other countries using cellphone data to monitor citizens and see if they are complying with curbs on movement, and elimination of income in order to defeat the viral outbreak.

    European mobile carriers have reportedly been sharing data with health authorities in Italy, Germany, and Austria, while at the same time respecting Europe’s privacy laws. Earlier this month, Israel passed emergency measures that allow security agencies to track the smartphone data of people with suspected COVID-19 and find others they may have come into contact with.

    Even if you end up making it through this pandemic without getting sick, the economic ramifications are going to be immense and it’s expected that the government will use the implemented mass surveillance and tracked to squash riots.

      It’s likely that this pandemic will affect you for much longer than the virus will. The mainstream media is calling those who care about people’s livelihoods “greedy,” but that couldn’t be further from the truth.  If people cannot feed their families, the social unrest and riots that could result from this lockdown may be overwhelming and could result in a massive amount of suicides and homicides.  The mainstream media can continue to ignore that fact all they’d like, but people will get violent if they get hungry.

    Pandemic-related unemployment and shutdowns are a recipe for social unrest, reported Reason.  That’s a huge concern as forecasters expect the U.S. unemployment rate in the months to come to surpass that seen during the depths of the Great Depression.  If that happens, the fallout from the shutdown will be worse than the deaths during this pandemic. Expect these totalitarian measures being put in place now to be used to control the public when they can’t make a living anymore.


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 04/01/2020 – 22:45

  • Banks To Make Billions On Small Business Bailout
    Banks To Make Billions On Small Business Bailout

    As part of the $2 trillion fiscal stimulus package that was signed into law by Donald Trump on Friday, the Small Business Administration will offer $350 billion in loans to US small businesses meant to preserve business solvency as part of the emergency federal response to the coronavirus pandemic; the loans, part of the so-called “Paycheck Protection Program” will be offered through banks and credit unions to cash-strapped businesses employing under 500 people (it’s not clear how a company employing 500 people is a “small business” but we can assume that this is just a stealthy bailout of some not so small businesses).

    To be sure, the terms of the loans are generous: the full amount of the loan will be forgiven if it is used for payroll, mortgage interest, rent or utilities in the two months after the money is received. Less will be forgiven if the employees are sacked or salaries cut. Any amount that is not forgiven will accrue interest at just 0.5% rate and the principal will come due in two years.

    Borrowers will need to fill out a two-page form and document that they were in business as of mid-February. Lenders will not need to wait for SBA confirmation before providing cash in hand, as soon as Friday. Businesses will be eligible to borrow the equivalent of 2.5 times their average monthly payroll with a cap of $10mm.

    According to the SBA, there are 30m businesses with fewer than 500 employees in the US, employing 60m people, almost half of the private workforce. The National Federation of Independent Business, an advocacy group, says about three-quarters of its members have been affected by the crisis.

    Yet some may be “shocked” to learn that like in any government bailout package, the biggest winners here will not be America’s vibrant small and medium business sector, which at best will get the bare minimum cash to fund 2.5 months of payroll (this assume the pandemic will be resolved by mid-June) but – drumroll – America’s banks.

    As the FT reports overnight, banks stand to make billions by overseeing the distribution of these loans as they receive processing fees, paid by the federal government, for making the loans. The fees will vary with loan size: 5% for loans under $350,000, 3% for loans under $2MM, and 1% for loans greater than $2MM. The loans will not incur a capital charge.

    This means that banks stand to earn as much as $17.5 billion – and $10 billion if one assumes an average rate of 3% – for doing something the government is incapable of doing: handing out hundreds of billions in loans/grants to America’s businesses in the shortest possible time.

    On the other hand, maybe this time the banks will actually earn it.

    Claudia Sahm, a former research section chief at the Federal Reserve, said offering banks fee-based incentives to administer and distribute loans, which function like grants, is a way to make up for the limited capability of the SBA to administer a program that senior administration officials say could pull in millions of application requests.

    Small businesses “are used to going to their local bank to get loans”, said Ms Sahm, now at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth. This will make it easier for banks to act quickly on existing relationships. It also means the SBA will rely on banks to contact their own clients, giving large banks and favoured clients an advantage.

    “Speed is the operative word,” said Jovita Carranza, the SBA’s administrator. “Applications for the emergency capital can begin as early as this week, with lenders using their own systems and processes to make these loans.”

    But wait, there is more pork at this trough: the SBA has also laid out a role for agents, such as attorneys or accountants, who can help prepare documents, and can claim some of the lenders’ processing fee. Sam Tuassig, head of policy at Kabbage, a fintech that makes small business loans, said: “It is essentially a grant program that, if the borrower doesn’t use the money to pay their employees, turns into a super-low interest loan.”

    Initially, only federally insured banks and credit unions will be eligible to make the loans. Tuassig said Kabbage was eager to participate, but that it remained unclear whether online lenders and fintechs would be allowed to do so. The Treasury’s statement on Tuesday said that “additional lenders” were encouraged to apply to the SBA for approval.

    And with billions of dollars at stake to those who merely take money from point A and deliver it to point B, one can be certain that everyone will be applying.


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 04/01/2020 – 22:25

  • Corporate Revolvers Reach A Tipping Point: Here Are All The Companies That Have Drawn Down Their Bank Loans
    Corporate Revolvers Reach A Tipping Point: Here Are All The Companies That Have Drawn Down Their Bank Loans

    Over the weekend, when we last looked at the unprecedented frenzy by corporations both big and small to draw down on their revolver as they rushed to take advantage of the last traces of liquidity in a market that may soon slam shut all funding windows, we showed that according to JPMorgan’s revolver tracker, corporates that have tapped banks for funding rose to a record $208 billion on Thursday, up $15 billion from $193 billion on Wednesday and $112BN on Sunday. In other words nearly $100 billion in liquidity was drained from banks in the past week.

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    Putting that number in context, according to JPM, the current aggregate corporate borrowings represent 77% of the total facilities.

    And since by implication almost all companies have now  drawn down on their full revolver, it stands to reason that the bank liquidity draining activity will slow down, and sure enough, according to a report from Goldman Sachs, that’s precisely what is going on.

    Confirming that the month of March was indeed an unprecedented frenzy for bank credit facility departments, Goldman calculates that as April 1, we have seen $183bn of line draws, up from $76bn last week, with 20% of these in the auto sector, and 14% in retail (other sectors are all <10%).

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    However, in a slightly conflicting conclusion from that of JPM, Goldman then notes that over the last week (since 3/24), there has been a modest slowdown in activity, with $40bn of draws, of which nearly 45% of these have been in autos (all by GM), 14% in retail, and 10% in tech.

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    Indeed, as Goldman writes, “we note that the pace of revolver draws has slowed nearly 50% so far this week relative to last week, with only $40bn over the last 5 business days, relative to an average trailing 5 business days run rate last week of $75bn.”

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    Which, as noted above, makes sense: after all by now the only companies that are left hoping to draw down on their revolver, are those that – one way or another – won’t get access to what they are contractually owed, most likely because their bank syndicate deems them a default risk, and with use whatever legal loopholes it needs to avoid wiring even one cent.

    Finally, now that the revolver frenzy is almost over, here is the full list of all companies that managed to get their money in time: below are all the corporations that have fully (or almost fully) drawn down on their revolver.

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    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 04/01/2020 – 22:15

  • Calls Mount For Investigation Into WHO For Participating In China's Coronavirus Coverup
    Calls Mount For Investigation Into WHO For Participating In China’s Coronavirus Coverup

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsCalls are mounting for a Congressional investigation into the World Health Organization’s alleged role in helping China conceal the severity of the coronavirus outbreak.

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    On Tuesday, Florida Senator Rick Scott (R) issued a statement conveying demanding accountability over the WHO’s handling of the crisis, according to American Military News.

    “The mission of the WHO is to get public health information to the world so every country can make the best decisions to keep their citizens safe. When it comes to Coronavirus, the WHO failed. They need to be held accountable for their role in promoting misinformation and helping Communist China cover up a global pandemic,” said Scott. “We know Communist China is lying about how many cases and deaths they have, what they knew and when they knew it – and the WHO never bothered to investigate further. Their inaction cost lives.

    Scott called on Congress to open an investigation of the WHO, once it comes back in session, “To review whether American taxpayers should continue to spend millions of dollars every year to fund an organization that willfully parroted propaganda from the Chinese Communist Party.” –American Military News

    Also calling for WHO to be held accountable is Gen. Rob Spalding (Ret.), who wrote in the same publication that “The first global war of the 21st century began in December without a shot fired. A Wuhan doctor in China noticed some patients admitted to the hospital were exhibiting viral pneumonia consistent with SARS. Only it wasn’t SARS. When he tried to sound the alarm, he triggered the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) authoritarian control on information. Discussion of the illness was prohibited, and the doctor – who tried to warn colleagues through social media – was detained. The results of patient samples that had been sequenced to reveal their genomes were quickly squashed, and the samples destroyed before the results could be made public.”

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    More from Spalding via American Military News:

    The WHO was notified early on, but they were prevented by the CCP to travel to Wuhan. Meanwhile, the CCP denied there was any danger to the public while 175,000 people traveled from Wuhan to all over China and the world. The virus was now set free to follow the new way of war detailed in the pages of Unrestricted Warfare. This book was written by two Peoples Liberation Army Colonels as a strategy to defeat a militarily superior United States.

    The new way of war – trade, economic, propaganda and media – has now been unleashed to aid the Chinese Communist Party. To better understand this, forget everything known about how the world works. Instead, think of globalization and the internet turned into a weapon, in a no-holds-barred assault of competitive aggression unassociated with military might – and this is how China is waging war.

    Following the Unrestricted Warfare thought, in CCP hands, globalization becomes weaponized. The CCP has spent decades utilizing globalization to slowly take control of the world’s trading system, dominate key industries and markets, build a global media and internet presence, and deploy subjects and diplomats around the world. Therefore, when the time comes these elements can easily be brought together for three intentional actions – deflect blame, cause panic, take advantage.

    Deflect blame. Because the CCP controls Chinese language media everywhere with an iron grip, they can rile an army of ‘victims’ to deflect their own culpability for the pandemic. Chinese language social media uses the often-utilized practice of crying racism and stoking nationalism to instill fear and revenge in those inside and outside the country. These activated citizens can then be spontaneous in their response by creating “hug me I’m not a virus” campaigns. Meanwhile, the citizens under lock-down are blocked from sharing their boots-on-the-ground point of view as social media is further restricted and censored. Abroad, a full media and diplomatic blitzkrieg can be levied to ensure the virus is not named according to its origin, which gives way to another campaign to establish that it came from another country. Finally, flush with horded supplies the CCP can feign being good Samaritans as they earn profits on price gouging the world on personal protective equipment (PPE). Ultimately, deflecting blame props up the CCP message about the superiority of their Communist system.

    Read the rest of the report here.


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 04/01/2020 – 22:05

  • 6.5 Million Initial Jobless Claims Tomorrow?
    6.5 Million Initial Jobless Claims Tomorrow?

    Last week, when consensus was expecting a “modest” 281K initial jobless claims, we said that SouthBay Research’s Andrew Zatlin, who has regularly been the most accurate predictor of labor market prints, expected no less than 2.4 million initial jobless claims. He was off by a million: the actual number was a staggering 3.28 million, quadruple the previous record set in the depths of the global financial crisis. The number was also too low in light of anecdotal evidence of the tsunami of unemployed workers, with a New York State official saying that the unemployment system had received a record 1.2 million calls just this Monday compared to 50,000 per week prior to the coronacrisis.

    In short, tomorrow’s initial claims print is expected to be another catastrophe, the only question is just how bad will it get and how much above the consensus print of 3.7 million will the actual number be.

    The claims report “will likely reflect both newly laid-off workers as well as states catching up on previously filed claims that had not yet been captured in the system due to overwhelming demand,” Wells Fargo economist Sam Bullard wrote in a note. He projects 3.15 million. He is also an optimist compared to some of colleagues.

    Going back to Zatlin, he is now expecting around 6.5 million initial claims having revised upward his weekly estimate on at least two prior occasions. “We are in unprecedented waters and fast moving, on-the-ground data requires equally fast updates.  Due to more recent information, I am raising the forecast again”, he wrote in a note to clients, adding the following:

    “At least 6.5M Americans filed for Initial Jobless Claims last week. States are unable to process the tidal wave of claims. I now believe that States will stop trying for accuracy and rely on estimates.  After all, funding will flow based on the number they submit and States need to get funding asap.

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    If Zatlin is right and states do opt for shock value, we may even get a 10 million print or more. Not that anyone is predicting that: curiously Zatlin is not even the biggest pessimist: the most dire prediction sees tomorrow’s initial claims at 6.5 million, and belongs to Thomas Costerg at Banque Pictet. BofA estimates 5.5 million, Goldman is at 5.25 million and Citigroup is at 4 million.

    Trying to chart tomorrow’s worst case scenario is simply meaningless:

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    A snapshot of the distribution of tomorrow’s forecasts together with some of the high-fliers is shown below:

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    As Bloomberg notes, the new jobless claims report will come days after President Trump announced that social distancing would extend until at least April 30, amid rapidly rising infections and deaths across the nation. The president previously said he hoped that the economy would be “raring to go” by the Easter holiday, but that’s no longer the plan.

    Curiously, the weekly initial claims report – traditionally ignored and seen as a B-grade economic datapoint at best – now has more import than the monthly jobless report. The reason: while Friday’s payroll figures are forecast to show a more-modest decline in jobs in March, like today’s ADP report, they reflect data from the first half of March, before most virus-related shutdowns. So, the bigger job losses – and an unemployment rate potentially rising by several percentage points – are more likely to show up in the April data due in May.

    “The March jobs report will vastly understate the extent of labor dislocation occurring as a result of the economic ‘hard stop’ resulting from containments efforts of the Covid-19 crisis. Instead, the more important information regarding the speed of labor market deterioration will be the weekly data on filings for unemployment benefits, a.k.a initial jobless claims.

    Which is not to say the unemployment rate won’t eventually reflect the unprecedented halt of the US economy. According to Goldman, in the next few weeks the US unemployment rate will rise to 15%, a level on par with the Great Depression.

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    We leave readers with the following big picture assessment from SouthBay Research:

    By the time this mess settles, at least 20M American workers will have been furloughed.  The math is relentless.

    Self-isolation is crushing the Leisure & Hospitality sector (17M workers).  Most of them are set to be out of work.  Indeed, confirming the sector’s pain, SouthBay’s review of local job postings found a massive collapse: Leisure & Hospitality postings fell 80% compared to the same period last year.  That figure will only worsen as more States and cities impose a lock down.

    And that’s just one sector.  Every sector is taking a hit, some more than others, but the average drop in labor demand is >50% (as reflected in job postings).  Things will get a bit uglier before they level off.

    But a turnaround will happen and sooner than most expect.

    In a different age, under these conditions, you would gather the family and head to a remote cabin in the hills.  You would be very scared because conditions are ripe for riots and looting and worse: too many people with too much time and opportunity on their hands.  At least 20M people will have nothing to do, no job to go to.  Schools are closed (56M students K-12).  They are at home and driving their parents crazy, who are also forced to work from home.  All in all, some 150M Americans people are now hunkered down.

    It’s a classic recipe for public disorder, and officials know it.  I was recently at a shopping mall where the only store open was Target.  At the opposite end of the mall, the empty end, a lone police car was stationed.  Forget protecting the public in case of a brawl at Target over toilet paper – the empty stores are of bigger concern because they have turned into perfect targets for theft.  A case in point: a Van Gogh was just stolen from the COVID-shuttered Singer Langer museum.

    Why aren’t we scared?  Because we have an even more powerful opiate of the masses: the Internet.  Pacifying the people is Netflix.  And Facebook and Disney+.  And for old school players who require real opiates or something similar, cannabis is now broadly legal and sales have doubled.

    Crowd control via the internet has become an important tool.  Recently, on a long flight to New York, I was speaking to flight attendants about the move by airlines to provide free movies via wifi.  Considering that airlines charge for everything, giving away movies seemed counter-intuitive.  But the flight attendants explained that it was actually a huge cost savings.  Fewer passengers were asking for drinks and snacks.  Fewer drunks causing problems.  Instead people sat docile for hours, entertained by their screens.

    But it doesn’t last.  People will get restless.  Pressure will build to get-back-to-business.  Especially if the data suggests that things are ‘less bad’ or that only certain demographics are at risk (the elderly, the already ill) or that there are treatments that seem to work.  

    And that’s the positive.  As Americans emerge from self-imposed hibernation, they will want to go out.  If you’ve ever been camping for an extended period of time, then you find yourself seeking out a hot shower and an equally hot meal.

    Demand for services will return, and so will jobs.  But it might be a while. 


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 04/01/2020 – 21:25

  • Pentagon Orders 100,000 Body Bags As FEMA Braces For Onslaught Of COVID-19 Deaths
    Pentagon Orders 100,000 Body Bags As FEMA Braces For Onslaught Of COVID-19 Deaths

    After President Trump’s talk of up to 240k coronavirus-related deaths rattled markets on Wednesday, Bloomberg reported Wednesday evening that the Pentagon is seeking up to 100,000 body bags for FEMA, lending the federal coronavirus response a real natural-disaster feel.

    Per BBG, the Federal Emergency Management Agency has requested 100,000 body bags, known in the business as “Human Remains Pouches”, vian an interagency group that directed the request to the Pentagon. The Pentagon is looking into sourcing more bags, but will initially provide 50k from a stockpile of 50,000 HRP they have…probably languishing in some underground bunker in Virginia.

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    Bloomberg described the anxiety-provoking headline as “a somber counterpoint to the Pentagon’s highly-praised deployment of two hospital ships to New York and Los Angeles to help alleviate pressure on regional hospitals overburdened by the pandemic.”

    The Defense Logistics Agency’s Troop Support unit manages the Pentagon’s stockpile of the HRPs, which consist of green nylon, 94-inch by 38-inch body bags that are typically distributed to war zones. The unit has been in talks with a contractor about their production capabilities, but the agency has yet to place an official order.

    President Trump said last night that he’s preparing for between 100k and 240k deaths, as per the official White House projections, but some of the more alarming projections have called for as many as 1 million deaths, without the ‘mitigation’ efforts being enacted by millions of Americans, who are working from home, or otherwise staying inside.

    FEMA hasn’t requested a formal delivery date from the DLA, according to the report, but the agency has purportedly told the contractor that it wants the bags ready ASAP.

    A spokesman for FEMA told BBG that the bags are part of the “prudent planning” process for anby potential future needs. The bags specifically apply to any “mortuary contingencies” from US states that might occur.

    Earlier this week, the director for the Joint Chiefs laid out the liaison process for working with FEMA, and explained how the JC is working “in close partnership” to make sure all needs are addressed.


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 04/01/2020 – 21:05

  • Dr. Fauci Given Security Detail After Receiving Unspecified 'Threats'
    Dr. Fauci Given Security Detail After Receiving Unspecified ‘Threats’

    It sounds almost unimaginable that anybody in the country right now would wish harm on sweet, innocent Dr. Anthony Fauci, the gifted doctor whose pioneering work on HIV and AIDS has been credited with saving millions of lives, and whose work leading the federal COVID-19 response has been lauded as a “port in the storm” for millions of terrified Americans.

    And yet, somebody somewhere apparently does.

    The Hill reports that Dr. Fauci has been given a security detail after receiving threats, according to an anonymous “person familiar with the matter.”

    Before taking his job as a top figure on the White House federal task force leading the government’s effort to suppress the outbreak, Dr. Fauci was the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, a position he has held since 1984.

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    Dr. Fauci

    The doctor’s absence from two White House press briefings last week sparked rumors that Trump was sidelining him after he had “contradicted” the president (something the president has said he encourages his ‘expert’ advisors to do), and the PR hit was apparently enough of a concern that the doctor was swiftly returned to the lineup.

    Asked whether he had been given security protection, Dr. Fauci refused to respond at Wednesday night’s briefing. But President Trump interjected, saying “everybody loves” Dr. Fauci, while noting that the good doctor was a formidable basketball player during his younger days.

    “He doesn’t need security. Everybody loves him,” Trump said. “Besides that, they’d be in big trouble if they ever attacked him.”

    Certainly, an attack on Fauci at such a sensitive time would garner very little sympathy, though there are some conservatives who have blamed the doctor for allegedly trying to undermine President Trump. As the Hill noted, Bill Mitchell and Tom Fitton are among those who have tweeted criticisms of Dr. Fauci recently. However, the motivations of those issuing the threats remain unclear, along with their identities.


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 04/01/2020 – 20:47

  • COVID-19 'Miracle Drug' Goes On FDA Shortage List After Study Confirms Efficacy
    COVID-19 ‘Miracle Drug’ Goes On FDA Shortage List After Study Confirms Efficacy

    Days after the FDA approved the use of hydrochloroquine as a treatment for COVID-19, weekly prescriptions soard from 100k to 300k in one week.

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    Compounding the issue is a study, which shows that the commonly used treatment for lupus, arthritis and other disorders which was touted by President Trump has proven to be effective in a small study reported by The New York Times. As such, the drug has been placed on the FDA’s list of shortages – leaving those with the aforementioned afflictions at risk of not being able to refill their prescriptions, according to Bloomberg.

    The news comes after Novartis AG’s Sandoz donated over 30 million doses of hydroxychloroquine, while Bayer AG donated 1 million doses of chloroquine to the national stockpile.

    While we are still waiting on the results from clinical studies, compelling anecdotal evidence of the drug’s efficacy when combined with azithromycin (Z-Pac) and zinc sulfate has caused several countries to place them on their recommended treatment regemin for the disease.

    Some of the nine companies on the FDA’s list that make hydroxychloroquine, including generic-drug giant Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd., said there is a limited supply that is subject to allocation. 4

    Others said the drug is available, particularly for existing customers. Increasingly larger shipments of chloroquine are scheduled over the next eight months, according to Natco Pharma Ltd., whose chloroquine is distributed by Rising Pharmaceuticals Inc. -Bloomberg

    “The agency is working with manufacturers to assess their supplies and is actively evaluating market demand for patients dependent on hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine for treatment of malaria, lupus and rheumatoid arthritis,” the FDA said in a Tuesday evening statement, adding that all manufacturers are ramping up production.


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 04/01/2020 – 20:45

  • Is Italy's COVID-19 Mortality Rate Even Worse Than Officials Are Letting On?
    Is Italy’s COVID-19 Mortality Rate Even Worse Than Officials Are Letting On?

    As US intelligence agencies dispute China’s surprisingly low mortality stats, and as researchers ponder what’s causing Italy’s outrageous 10%+ mortality rate, one thing is indisputable: mortality rates are climbing even as the number of cases being reported in places like Italy are tapering off. And that is freaking out scientists, who are scrambling to find a cure.

    As analysts at Commodore Research pointed out, the issue is not unique to Italy: Virtually every nation that has a large number of reported cases has continued to see mortality rates climb.  In Spain, the mortality rate now stands at 8.7%.  Ten days ago, it stood at 5.4%.  In the Netherlands, the mortality rate stands at 8.3%.  Ten days ago, it stood at 3.8%.  In the United Kingdom, the mortality rate stands at 7.1%.  Ten days ago, it stood at 4.6%.  In France, the mortality rate stands at 6.7%.  Ten days ago, it stood at 3.9%.  In Belgium, the mortality rate stands at 5.5%.  Ten days ago, it stood at 2.4%.

    Even nations where the mortality rate has been relatively low have seen the rate climb: In Portugal, the mortality rate now stands at 2.2%.  Ten days ago, it stood at 0.9%.  In the US, the mortality rate stands at 2%, 10 days ago, it stood at 1.2%.  In South Korea, the mortality rate stands at 1.7%.  Ten days ago, it stood at 1.2%.  In Austria, the mortality stands at 1.3%.  Ten days ago, it stood at 0.4%.  In Germany, the mortality rate stands at 1%.  Ten days ago, it stood at 0.4%.

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    Italy’s more detailed breakdown of virus-related data and other mortality statistics have showed that virus-related deaths in Milan and the surrounding area, which has a population of 10 million, has caused the mortality rate to double from normal times.

    According to AFP, the region registered 12,399 COVID-19 related deaths last month, thousands more than officially reported by any other country. Meanwhile, last Friday, the civil protection service disclosed a record 969 deaths.

    Some have speculated that the death toll in Italy simply doesn’t add up, suggesting that Italy’s 10% reported death toll might be too low.

    It might sound hard to believe, but AFP reports that by comparing data from 2018, its journalists determined that the average monthly deaths from 2018 in the same region was 8,300, and that March 2018 was likely a “statistically average” month. However, the city reported 7,176 coronavirus deaths in March, which is 15% below the average in normal times. Some say that this suggests local officials are deliberately misreporting the numbers.

    Even some public officials are suspicious. Bergamo Mayor Giorgio Gori said Wednesday he does not trust the official figures and thinks the real toll for the region may be twice as high. The mayor tweeted a newspaper analysis suggesting that the COVID-19 toll in the Bergamo province was “between 4,500 and 5,000, and not the 2,060” officially reported.

    One expert in Italy said that the data suggest Italy’s crisis has peaked, but that the peak in hospital deaths will arrive shortly, per the Hill.

    “The data suggest that the increase in numbers of patients in intensive care in both the Lombardy region and Italy as a whole are likely to have peaked,” the report said.

    But “”he numbers of deaths in hospital will continue to increase at the maximum rate for several days to come.”

    To be sure, one new report published in the Lancet suggested that mortality rates might be smaller than initially suspected.

    The study, published Monday in The Lancet Infectious Diseases medical journal, estimated that about 0.66% of patients who become infected with the virus will die. Previously, when undetected infections weren’t being taken into account, researchers found the coronavirus death rate was 1.38%. That’s still significantly deadlier than the seasonal flu.

     


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 04/01/2020 – 20:25

  • "I've Never Seen Anything Like This": Small Businesses Beg For 'Speedy' Stimulus Delivery
    “I’ve Never Seen Anything Like This”: Small Businesses Beg For ‘Speedy’ Stimulus Delivery

    “I have never seen anything like this in my lifetime,” one small business owner was cited in Reuters as saying. The real question now is how long can small and family businesses  which account for some half of all US employment and are fast blowing through whatever cash remains (many say they’re good for no more than two weeks) wait till they actually feel the effects of the $2 trillion stimulus package? After all it could take weeks to process checks and get loans out, and yet April remains essentially “cancelled”.

    “Without something we wouldn’t be able to keep our employees,” another business owner with just five employees said. “My biggest goal is to keep them and of course make sure there’s a business for them to come back and work for.”

    Congress’ $2 trillion includes $349 billion meant to rescue small firms through the Payroll Protection Program, intended for businesses to cover eight weeks of payroll and basic operating expenses via a forgivable loan of up to $10 million, which companies of up to 500 employees or fewer can access, available through June.

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    Via ABC News

    This as 50,000 retail stores have already shuttered in just over a week nationwide with no clear re-opening date, resulting in over 600,000 workers on furlough, based on Bloomberg data also as new soaring unemployment numbers come out weekly, with last week the Labor Department reporting a record 3.3 million people filing unemployment insurance claims in the week prior.

    “Speed is the operative word,” spokesman for the specific Treasury Dept. agency (the Small Business Administration, SBA) which is to oversee getting the funds to businesses, Jovita Carranza, said. And CEO of the Bank Policy Institute, Greg Baer, pointed out that “This is the kind of program that in ordinary times would take a year to get started.”

    Indeed as details and crucial processing elements on the rollout continue to come into focus, investors will remain wary of bottlenecks which would detract from the economic upside, given that ensuring as many firms as possible remain operating in the wake of the outbreak is vital to preserving as much of the previously robust employment market as possible.

    We noted last week that now with the stimulus passed into law, it’s precisely this next hurdle of speed and timeliness which will be as great (if not greater) than the first and presents a significant degree of execution risk. There are several aspects of the proposed stimulus measures which have well-established distribution channels; unemployment benefits and the injection of cash directly to households. As for the corporate, small business, and state/local government allocations, this leg of the process presents a greater challenge.

    “There’s a fair amount of money,” Yale University finance professor Andrew Metrick told Bloomberg this week:

    “But ultimately we have capacity problems getting the money into the hands of the small businesses fast enough, without fraud or bad actors effectively figuring out how to siphon money off.”

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    Via National Restaurant Association

    And Reuters adds further on the question of timing: “Banks have been telling customers to be patient and asking them to get relevant paperwork ready so that loans are processed quickly when it all comes together. Some expect cash to begin moving as soon as Friday.”

    In short, there’s the classic question of speed vs. qualitative oversight. Either the government gives everyone what they want without checking — leaving the potential to unleash unprecedented fraud  or they do a meticulous check of everything and businesses fail during the long wait in limbo.

    But the following doesn’t lend toward optimism

    The White House is dispatching staff to the Small Business Administration as that agency struggles with a flood of requests for financial aid, according to people familiar with the matter. So many people tried to access one SBA loan program last week that the agency’s website failed repeatedly.

    Mnuchin has vowed to have the small business loan program “up and running” by the end of the week.

    Via Brookings: Sifan Liu and Joseph Parilla observe that small business, particularly newer ones, were hit hardest during the 2007-09 recession. As the economy continues to suffer impacts from coronavirus-induced measures, they look back at what happened to such businesses then. In 16 of the largest metro areas, they find, small businesses were responsible for more than 90% of the net job loss:

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    But assuming we’re still having this discussion into next week, and possibly the next after, and as confused business owners struggle to fight through the red tape, it is sure to be too late for many who are still paying the bills today only on revenue from yesterday (or rather, from two weeks ago).

    “This last week we’ve been working diligently with our banker to keep every single cash reserve dollar we’ve got to take care of things we absolutely have to pay until some of these loan programs become available and we can get cash out of them,” Jerry Akers, who co-owns over a couple dozen Great Clips hair salons locations in Iowa and Nebraska, told Bloomberg“I’m not a big government-subsidy guy by nature, but right now, that’s our lifeline.”


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 04/01/2020 – 20:05

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 1st April 2020

  • Iran Blames "Terrorists" For Pipeline Explosion On Turkish Border, Gas Exports Halted
    Iran Blames “Terrorists” For Pipeline Explosion On Turkish Border, Gas Exports Halted

    On Tuesday a key pipeline carrying gas between Turkey and Iran exploded at the Gurbulak border gate on the Turkish side near the Iranian border, temporarily halting gas exports from Iran.

    Though most international reports treated the blast as mysterious in origin, including some Turkish state broadcasters such as TRT, Iranian leader were quick to blame “terrorists”.

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    Via APF: The pipeline carries around 10 billion cubic meters of Iranian gas to Turkey annually.

    “This morning, terrorists attacked a natural gas pipeline inside Turkey near Iran’s Bazargan border with Turkey… Flow of gas has been halted,” director of the National Iranian Gas Company, Mehdi Jamshidi Dana, said in a statement.

    Fire and smoke could be seen billowing from the site throughout the much of the day in dramatic footage captured by Russian media.

    “The gas flow on the natural gas pipeline was cut and the fire that had started was extinguished by fire squads,” Turkish broadcaster TRT said, adding that the incident is under investigation.

    According to the New York Times, citing Iranian state sources further, Kurdish militants operating in eastern under the PKK are being blamed for the blast :

    Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency quoted National Iranian Gas Co. gas dispatching director Mahdi Jamshidi Dana as saying authorities suspected the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, likely attacked the pipeline.

    Kurdish militants belonging to the outlawed PKK have targeted oil and gas pipelines from Iraq and Iran as part of their more than three-decade old campaign for self-rule in southeast Turkey.

    Indeed at the height of fighting between PKK militants and the Turkish state throughout the 1990’s and into the 2000’s the pipeline was attacked and disabled on repeat occasions. 

    Turkey reportedly has kept an extremely reduced border security force in the area of late due to the coronavirus pandemic.

    “It takes usually three to four days to repair and resume gas exports,” Turkish reports said.


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 04/01/2020 – 02:45

  • Sweden: Culture Of Silence
    Sweden: Culture Of Silence

    Authored by Judith Bergman via The Gatestone Institute,

    A recent report published by Linköping University about the Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention (Brå), “Can Brå be trusted?” has claimed that Brå’s reports are politically biased.

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    According to Brå’s own website, “Brå is an agency under the auspices of the Ministry of Justice and a knowledge centre for the criminal justice system. The agency’s mandate is to contribute to the development of knowledge within the criminal justice system and the criminal policy area, as well as to promote crime prevention work. Brå is responsible for the official criminal statistics and other statistics, which includes producing, following, analysing, and reporting on criminality and the criminal justice system’s responses to crime”.

    It is therefore crucial that Brå fulfill its obligations in a factual and objective manner, not least in the current environment, when Sweden is experiencing a veritable crime wave, including shootings, bombings and other gang-inspired violence that some commentators have likened to “war”.

    According to the Linköping University report, the results of which were based primarily on interviews with former and current employees and managers of Brå, in addition to a number of former police chiefs and ministers of justice, Brå’s work is politically biased due to political pressure from the Ministry of Justice as well as the management of Brå. The report states:

    “For example, a former employee said that he, together with the Director-General [of Brå] was called to the Ministry of Justice for a conversation with the requirement of a report to be ‘corrected’. The report consisted of an evaluation of a government proposal, concluding that the proposals were harmful. The interviewee realized that the conclusions would be politically unpopular, but had nevertheless written them… Other former employees have pointed out that it was clear that there were political reasons why they were pressured to change content in reports even though these researchers were not called to the Ministry… One employee reported, among other things, that a director-general expressed that ‘there is a reality and a political reality’ when the director-general demanded that an employee change a report…”

    The Linköping University report goes on to say:

    “Interviews show that adaptation of content in reports has taken place in different ways. A former employee made the following summary: ‘If results were not liked then censorship was used, correction of results, toning down results and highlighting other parts of [the] study that were not so sensitive or that could show positive results'”.

    Another employee said:

    “After I was hired at Brå, it didn’t take me long to realize that working at Brå is a big challenge. As an employee of Brå, you have to write and think in a certain way. Brå is extremely controlled from the top. There are some people at Brå who run [the organization] with an iron hand. If one were to be a little harsh then one could liken it to a sect. I don’t think they really understand what kind of culture they have created“.

    The Linköping report states that there appears to be a culture of silence by which is meant, “norms that create silence among employees, when they do not dare to bring up certain viewpoints, questions or criticism, whether internal or external”.

    Ironically, this culture of silence has been symptomatic of Swedish society, where most have been afraid to speak publicly about the problems caused by unfettered migration for fear of being ostracized.

    The report also found that Brå appears to strive to hire employees that will “act as obedient bureaucrats at an authority, rather than people who have accepted a researcher’s role”.

    The report has caused consternation in Sweden. The Swedish Parliament’s judicial committee has now invited the authors of the report, as well as the general director, to their next meeting. Johan Forsell, the legal spokesman of the Moderate party, said:

    “Very serious allegations and accusations are made in the report. Brå is, after all, an expert authority that is supposed to deliver facts that objectively reflect society. We need, quite simply, to get to the bottom of this… Regardless of when it happened and under what political color, the very suspicion of influence is serious enough. But that responsibility now falls on Justice Minister Morgan Johansson”.

    Meanwhile, Sweden continues its downward spiral. Last year there were 257 reports of explosions — including attempted explosions — an increase of 59% compared to 2018, according to SVT Nyheter. Yet, only seven people were convicted for any of those 257 crimes. In 2020, at least 10 explosions have already taken place.

    According to Stefan Hector, head of the National Operative Unit (NOA):

    “Earlier we saw that hand grenades were used. Now we see how homemade explosives are used instead as weapons in conflicts. Either to injure or to terrorize but with a new ruthlessness where they bomb wherever the public is without caring that the public might get hurt”.

    According to SVT News, the police and other authorities “do not know” where all the explosives come from. “The issue of explosives as weapons in conflicts is relatively new. This means that we have considerable uncertainty as to where the parts for the explosive charges come from”, Hector said.

    “Unless the integration of the newcomers succeeds better, in the long run, the social glue that makes a democratic welfare society of our kind possible risks being torn apart”, professor in political science at the University of Uppsala, Tommy Möller, recently wrote in an op-ed.

    Gatestone Institute has described the serious economic, welfare, crime and other challenges that Swedish society now faces as a result of migration into the country, for example herehereherehere and here.

    One issue that Swedish figures of authority are now admitting to having neglected over the years is anti-Semitism. Municipal managers in Malmö, for instance, Sweden’s third-largest city, where immigrants constitute one-third of the population, now say that it took a long time before they “saw the extent” of the problem. Anders Rubin was school council member of the Malmö municipality from 2013 to 2018. “Many students who have a background in the Middle East, and in several Muslim countries, have notions of Jews that are not at all compatible with democratic values,” he told Sydsvenskan recently. He also confessed that the municipality had not taken the complaints of its Jewish citizens seriously. According to Sydsvenskan:

    “Anders Rubin says he and the other leading Social Democrats initially underestimated the alarm from the city’s Jews about a growing amount of threats and harassment. He describes it as the municipality management having had their ‘guards down’.”

    “It was not felt that there was an established anti-Semitic attitude more than in extremely peripheral right-wing groups. I think we understood that the problem was marginal” admitted Rubin to Sydsvenskan. The newspaper also recounts how in 2009, Malmö’s then-mayor, Ilmar Reepalu, responded to attacks on a Jewish demonstration by saying that Swedish Jews ought to distance themselves from Israel.

    “It was only when we began to realize that in some of our immigrant groups there were ideas that were problematic, that we realized that we were forced to do something”, Rubin said. He said there are probably limits to what municipal authorities can do about anti-Semitism.

    “To think that we could achieve the frictionless city is a utopia. In such a diversified city as Malmö, one cannot change those types of attitudes by coming from the top and being forceful and telling people what to think. Somehow, it is extremely difficult to drive this down to a municipal political level. I think it is a complicated question, how we as representatives of the majority society should act to influence the attitudes of minorities. It easily becomes counterproductive”.

    Perhaps unwittingly, Rubin made a crucial point here: namely, that for years authorities swept serious problems related to migration under the rug, making them taboo and then vilifying those who dared to talk about them in public. The Linköping University report about the culture at Brå, sadly, exposed this pattern.


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 04/01/2020 – 02:00

  • Is America Able To Handle COVID-19? – Global Prospects Hang On This Question
    Is America Able To Handle COVID-19? – Global Prospects Hang On This Question

    Authored by Alastair Crooke via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    As the lockdowns across Europe began to bite, the U.S. Establishment began its ‘wobble’. The more elegant amongst élite circles pointed to a dangerous mis-match in timelines: The medical advice has been: ‘lockdown until the virus begins to subside’, but that advice encompassed too, the possibility of Covid-19 returning later in the year in a Phase Two, thus requiring further personal distancing.

    Hands shot high in absolute horror amongst some business and Wall Street leaders: Could the U.S. economy sustain such a prospect? Might not a long shutdown inflict permanent damage? Would there even be an economy left – to resurrect – in the wake of ‘peak Coronavirus’?

    The mis-match thesis then acquired a third strand: To immediate economic fears standing in contradistinction to longer term medical perspectives was added the third question: Are Americans culturally ‘built’ for lockdown (that is to say, will an individualistic, libertarian-minded – and armed society – acquiesce to being ordered to stay home over a long period)?

    Not surprisingly, President Trump – with an advancing Election, and his colours pinned to the mast of sound economic management – hit on the formula that the ‘cure cannot be worse than the disease’: Let’s have the economy open by Easter (12 April – i.e. 15 days hence), he declared.

    The issue of the virus is not manufactured, (though there are still many in the U.S., who regard it as an overblown scare), nor is the dilemma of the divergent timelines. Actually – a great deal hangs on how these timelines play out – our global economic and political prospects, no less.

    Just about everyone and his dog now claims to have modelled Covid-19. But in truth, we still know very little on which to accurately predict the virus’ course. The ‘data’ is made unreliable: firstly, because not only does the virus have different mutations, but secondly, owing to it acting in two quite different modes: One is mild, or even asymptomatic (the 80%); and the second mode is serious (requiring hospitalisation) – and for a minority of the 20% – deadly.

    But consequently, we simply do not know how much of the population is infected, or is still to be infected – precisely owing to its very mildness or, its asymptomatic characteristics amongst the 80 percent-ers. There hasn’t been enough testing – and anyway, given its mild or non-noticeable iteration, many people may have it, but don’t test.

    So the data modelling is more ‘art’, than predictive, and therefore introduces economic uncertainty. The damage to the economy is obvious from the first, but the question least considered is the importance of the third strand: Is Trump right when he says that America ‘is not built for lockdown’?

    He may be right, in one sense; but if he opts to prioritise a quick opening of the economy over the welfare of the American people, he may face incalculable consequences – should Covid-19 bite him in the backside: Either by mutating (as did the Spanish ‘flu in August 1918); or simply, by beginning a second phase through a resurgence of community infection later in the year.

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    Plainly, Trump is of the ‘fears are exaggerated’ school of thought, and seems poised to bet his Presidency on it. In this era, viral social media images of hospitals overwhelmed, and of patients fighting to breathe their last, unaided, and lying on the floor, jam-packed in corridors, or in converted gyms – can become politically toxic. The counter- response that the financial system is struggling for oxygen, under lockdown, too, may strike many people as a ‘little lacking’ in common humanity – perhaps?

    The dilemma is cruel. And maybe the social timeline ‘strand’ has more substance, than is generally granted? Americans are libertarian in many ways (not least, in their determination to carry arms). This is reflected also, in their deliberate eschewing of a public health programme, and in the purposefully limited support provided to the hourly paid – who are laid off. It is the ethos of individualism, a work ethic and the consequence of a ‘libertarian’ constitution.

    The St Louis Chair of the Fed has predicted 30% unemployment and 50% of the economy at standstill by the end of June. Is it sustainable to have these furloughed workers dying in the street, because they cannot afford America’s ‘boutique’ health-service for the wealthy? (we’ve seen videos of people unexpectedly falling down in the street, dying, as passers-by skirt the afflicted victim – from both China and Iran). Such videos would be inflammatory in the U.S.

    What happens if ‘lockdown’ were extended, and the unemployed were to attack supermarkets for food they cannot afford; or because the supermarket shelves are empty (this has happened in Europe)? What would videos of the U.S. National Guard look like as they arrive, armed for war, to put down the ‘looters’? What happens if the rioters angry at their plight – and without money – use their right to bear weapons to fight against the National Guardsmen? Can the U.S. national fabric handle such strains? Might it not disintegrate?

    Here, the U.S. differs from Europe. America has not, since the Civil War, had to experience the harsh circumstances in hospitals approximating to wartime, on its own soil.

    So, is Trump right, then, to prioritise keeping the U.S. economy open? Well, firstly, the notion that bits of the economy can be opened where infection-rates are low, whilst other parts are locked down, seems odd: Covid-19 – we do know – is highly infectious. Those who show no symptoms – whether they are under 50 years, or under 40 years-old – would not preclude them from being silent ‘super-carriers’ of the disease. We have not heard there is a test for anti-bodies, which might signal that an individual enjoys immunity. But unless an area has no infections, putting even one carrier into a workplace, would be sufficient to trigger a localised community infection.

    Perhaps then, Trump might be right that anything other than a short (and possibly ineffective) lockdown is not manageable in the U.S.: That it might tear apart an already polarised, armed and inegalitarian, social fabric. There is then, a substantial point here: How far, and for how long, can an U.S. or European society accept a ‘command’ or martial-law administration – before citizens rebel, and head to the beaches for summer? What then?

    Is it possible that can Trump may emerge from these events as the ‘saviour of the U.S. economy’? Here, we touch on the key question of the adaptability of élites. Are the U.S. élite capable of true transformation of consciousness as circumstances alter? On the answer to this question will hang the geo-political future. It was the inability of the Soviet elites to give up on their corrupt and privileged status quo that led to the implosion of the USSR in 1987.

    We are often told that Americans are great innovators and graspers of opportunity. But today, the U.S. élites are utterly intent on preserving a status quo – as the viability and even the reality of that status quo is being questioned by important insiders. For the élite majority, though, the mind-set is intransigent and adamant. The status quo suits them well. They do not wish to see to see it reformed or changed. They refuse to think differently.

    Eventually, the coronavirus will subside; but what will America look like when it does? For the moment, the élites believe that America will look just as it did, in February, before the impact of the pandemic hit U.S. markets. So, we have had the Fed, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan all doing the same thing, over and over again, hoping that the economy will snap-back to ‘normal’. But it isn’t working.

    The Fed fears a collapse in credit (with due reason), but ‘normality’ is not returning from the rush of liquidity hosed across credit markets. In the 2008 crisis, the Fed responded with all sorts of easing. This time the Fed is throwing the ‘kitchen sink’ at markets, offering ‘facilities’ for almost every asset class. At the present rate of growth, the Fed balance sheet will be $6 Trillion in days – and reach a total equivalent to almost 50% of the U.S. GDP by June. Another, unimaginable chunk of debt.

    The problem is that the Fed’s measures will fail as stimulus – because it is not a problem of demand shortfall, but of supply-shock – as the globe implements ‘shut-down’ in order to slow infection. But, with recession or depression looming, asset prices are collapsing. Bloomberg has noted that core tenets such as what constitutes a safe asset, or the expectation of returns over the next decade, are all being thrown out of the window – as Central Banks strive to avert a global recession: The latter have unleashed a money tsunami, unlike anything seen before, and the fear of inflation is rising, together with a sense that all the old metrics of what constitutes safe investments are gone for good.

    Meanwhile the U.S. Congress has passed a $2 trillion bill to counter the effects of Covid-19. It was well received for a while in the U.S. markets, before they fell again. The bill may help keep a part of the big business status quo alive, for now, but the bottom line is that these spending bills – as Jim Rickards notes – “provide spending but they do not provide stimulus”. And all that spending – like that of the Fed – essentially will be helicopter money: i.e. monetised debt.

    The essential dilemma is that the Central Bankers’ Holy Grail – stimulus – depends on consumers, who constitute 70% of the U.S. economy; and on whether they decide consume – and to what extent. And that will depend upon their psychology in the post-Covid-19 era, and not on what the Fed does, or does not, do now.

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    If consumers get used – during lockdown – to doing without; to economising; they may well decide that increased savings and debt reduction, are the best ways to prepare for straitened times. 83% of U.S. businesses are small or medium sized companies. Some may survive and resume work, but others will not re-open after the lockdown. It will be a different atmosphere: a different economic era.

    Of course, the élites want to go ‘back to normal’ as quickly as possible, but the ‘bottom line’ emerging from the Fed’s failure to staunch market paralysis is that that which the élites had thought to be ‘normal’ is proving not to have been normal at all. It is now apparent as having been a financialised bubble – and Covid-19 happens to have been the pin that popped it. This bubble was just the biggest, in a long line of Fed-blown bubbles (NASDAQ, sub-prime mortgages, etc.) – and now, the final ‘everything-bubble’ has burst. There’s nothing now left for the Fed to ‘bubble up’. It’s probably over.

    Here’s the larger – global – point. Again, it revolves around psychology: Have these events been the ‘pin’ which also pops some sort of mass psychological bubble (a sealed Cartesian, mental retort)? Will public faith in the status quo crash, along with the financialised ‘everything-bubble’? Will a momentary flash of enlightenment to the house-of-cards reality that Americans had been living, cause them to start seeing their world afresh, and in its raw, hard reality? If so, the world order stands on the cusp of change.

    For some time now, a general popular disquiet has been incubating. The question is whether, in the cold post-Covid-19 reality, Americans will begin to cease their acquiescence to – and their co-operation with – the status quo.

    This might mean trouble as America and some European states try to manage the pandemic through invoking the necessity of a war-time command-governance. Will people accept such a command system, if they see its principal purpose being the return to a failed status quo ante?


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 04/01/2020 – 00:05

  • It's Happening: Oil Producers Are Now Paying Clients As Wyoming Sour Price Turns Negative
    It’s Happening: Oil Producers Are Now Paying Clients As Wyoming Sour Price Turns Negative

    When Goldman’s crude oil analysts wrote on Monday that “This Is The Largest Economic Shock Of Our Lifetimes“, they echoed something we said last week – nameley that the record surge in excess oil output amounting to a mindblowing 20 million barrels daily or roughly 20% of global demand…

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    … which is the result of the Saudi oil price war which has unleashed a record gusher in Saudi oil production, coupled with a historic crash in oil demand (which Goldman estimated at 26mmb/d), could send the price of landlocked crude oil negative: “this shock is extremely negative for oil prices and is sending landlocked crude prices into negative territory.”

    We didn’t have long to wait, because while oil prices for virtually all grades have now collapsed to cash costs…

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    … Bloomberg points out that in a rather obscure corner of the American physical oil market, crude prices have now officially turned negative as “producers are actually paying consumers to take away the black stuff.”

    The first crude stream to price below zero was Wyoming Asphalt Sour, a dense oil used mostly to produce paving bitumen. Energy trading giant Mercuria bid negative 19 cents per barrel in mid-March for the crude, effectively asking producers to pay for the luxury of getting rid of their output.

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    Echoing Goldman, Elisabeth Murphy, an analyst at consultant ESAI Energy said that “these are landlocked crude with just no buyers. In areas where storage is filling up quickly, prices could go negative. Shut-ins are likely to happen by then.”

    While Brent and WTI are hovering just around $20 a barrel, in the world of physical oil where actual barrels change hands  producers are getting much less according to Bloomberg as demand plunges due to the lockdown to contain the spread of the coronavirus.

    Oil traders believe other crude streams are likely to see negative prices soon at the well-head as refiners reduce the amount of crude they process, leaving some landlocked crude without easy access to pipeline trapped. Goldman’s Jeffrey Currie explained this pricing divergence as follows:

    Brent is a waterborne crude priced on an island in the North Sea, 500 meters from the water. In contrast, WTI is landlocked and 500 miles from the water. As I like to say, I would rather have a high-cost waterborne crude oil that can access a ship than a landlocked pipeline crude sitting behind thousands of miles of pipe, like the crude oils in the US, Russia and Canada.

    As we noted last night, when we asked who would see zero dollar oil first, several grades in North America are already trading in single digit territory as the market tries to force some output to shut-in. Canadian Western Select, the benchmark price for the giant oil-sands industry in Canada, fell to $4 on Monday, while Midland Texas was last seen trading just around $10.

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    Southern Green Canyon in the Gulf of Mexico is worth $11.51 a barrel, Oklahoma Sour is changing hands at $5.75, Nebraska Intermediate at $8, while Wyoming Sweet prices at $3 a barrel, per Bloomberg.

    While there is very little hope of a dramatic improvement in the situation, late on Tuesday, President Trump said the U.S. would meet with Saudi Arabia and Russia with the goal of halting the historic plunge in oil prices. Trump, speaking at the White House Tuesday, said he’s raised the issue with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

    “They’re going to get together and we’re all going to get together and we’re going to see what we can do,” he said. “The two countries are discussing it. And I am joining at the appropriate time, if need be.”

    It’s unclear what if anything Trump “can do” in what is effectively a collusive war between the two nations meant to crush shale oil.

    Trump’s intervention comes as April shapes up to be a calamitous month for the oil market. Saudi Arabia plans to boost its supply to a record 12.3 million barrels a day, up from about 9.7 million in February. At the same time, fuel consumption is poised to plummet by 15 million to 22 million barrels as coronavirus-related lockdowns halt transit in much of the world.

    There is another problem: oil demand has been so battered by government lockdowns to stop the spread of the coronavirus that any conceivable oil production cut agreement between the U.S., Canada, Russia and OPEC members would still fall well short of what’s needed to shore up the market, Goldman calculated. In fact, assuming roughly 20 million in excess supply currently, the only thing that could balance the oil market is nothing short of both Saudi Arabia and Russia halting all output together. And that will never happen.

    Finally, below we put the “long history” of oil prices in context:

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    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 03/31/2020 – 23:57

  • Harvard Acceptance Rates Rise As Most Ivy League Schools Become Less Selective
    Harvard Acceptance Rates Rise As Most Ivy League Schools Become Less Selective

    Ivy League schools, known for being the most selective colleges in the nation, became a little less selective this year.

    Names like Harvard, Dartmouth and Penn have all posted increased acceptance rates for classes that will begin this fall, according to a new report from the Wall Street Journal

    Harvard admitted 4.9% of the 40,248 people who applied last year compared to its 4.6% acceptance rate the year prior. Dartmouth this year accepted 8.8% of applicants, up from 7.9% last year. Columbia admitted 6.1% of applicants this year, which was up from 5.3% the year prior, as applications dropped by almost 2,500 and the school simultaneously accepted 220 more students.

    Yale also saw its acceptance rate move higher, to 6.5% from 6.2%. And Penn’s acceptance rate went from 7.7% to 8.1%.

    Colleges, including Ivy League names, have hit an unprecedentedly challenging landscape with the ongoing pandemic shaking up enrollment projections for each university. It is still unknown what the state of the nation will be by the time fall courses are set to begin: will students be allowed on campus? Will residence halls be open? Will foreign students even be allowed to travel to the U.S.?

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    Some schools pulled extra candidates from their waitlist or “deny” groups in order to make sure they could enroll a full class. Reed College in Oregon saw its acceptance rate surge by 3% and Franklin & Marshall accepted 32% of applicants, which is up 2%.

    Cornell said it wasn’t even going to issue public statements about its admission figures any longer. Jonathan Burdick, vice president for enrollment at Cornell said: “While metrics such as application numbers and admissions rates are an area of focus for many as they review annual activity in higher education, Cornell’s thorough and holistic review processes mean that no one applicant’s chances can be guided by ‘averages’.” 

    Brown and Princeton both bucked the trend with Brown dropping its admission rate to 6.9% from 7.1% and Princeton dropping its admission rate to 5.6% from 5.8%. 

    But at least for now, it looks as though the once exclusive Ivy League isn’t so “exclusive” anymore…


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 03/31/2020 – 23:45

  • The Places In America With The Most "At Risk Populations" For COVID-19
    The Places In America With The Most “At Risk Populations” For COVID-19

    Authored by Jen Hood, via MastersOfBusinessAnalytics.com,

    The coronavirus crisis has turned many Americans into amateur data scientists who are studying health data and statistics on a daily basis.

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    Are the rates of infections rising? Are they rising but accelerating or decelerating? Are the infections rising because of viral spread or because of more testing? How many people are dying each day? Does the data indicate that the virus is dangerous for only old people or young people as well? In many ways solving this crisis hinges on our mastery of data analytics, a subject we specialize in.

    By now, the data is clear that coronavirus is dangerous for people of all ages, but it’s particularly lethal for older individuals.

    In this article, the team at MastersofBusinessAnalytics.com was compelled to review just how many Americans are over the age of 65 in various places across the country. While this data analysis doesn’t show us how to solve the problem, it can show us just how large the devastation could be.

    Across the country, there are over 51 million Americans that are over the age of 65, comprising 16% of the population. Maine and Florida lead the nation with the highest proportion of their population being over the age of 65. Alaska and Utah are the states with the lowest rates of elderly people. Among the largest hundred cities in America, Scottsdale, AZ and Honolulu, HI have the populations with the highest percentage of older Americans.

    *  *  *

    It’s important to note that coronavirus is serious for all individuals, not just the elderly. The disease can be debilitating and sometimes deadly, even if you’re healthy.  Even if you’re “asymptomatic” (meaning you have contracted coronavirus and might not know it because you show no symptoms) you could spread it to someone else who could experience very adverse consequences and possible death.

    This is to say, it’s important to show the number of people across America that are above 65 years old because they are the most at risk, but that does not absolve younger people from the risks or responsibilities.

    The chart below shows that states that have the highest percentage of their population aged 65 and above:

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    Across the country, Maine and Florida have the highest percentages of their populations that are over the age of 65 and the highest risk group for the virus. Alaska and Utah have the lowest rates of eldery population, with under 12% of their population being under the age of 65 years old.

    But just how many older Americans are at risk in each state? While the prior chart looked at the percentage of the population that was over 65, the next chart shows the number of people in each state that are over 65 (in millions).

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    In California there are approximately 5.7 million people over the age of 65, followed by Florida with 4.4 million and Texas with 3.6 million. In New York, the state with currently the most known coronavirus infections, has the fourth highest population of people over the age of 65. All in all, 18 of the 50 states have more than a million people over the age of 65 that would be extremely high risk for complications due to coronavirus.

    Next, let’s look at the cities with the highest percentage of inhabitants over the age of 65:

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    Scottsdale, AZ, an attractive retirement destination, has the highest percentage of people over the age of 65 by a significant margin. Scottsdale is followed by Honolulu, HI and Hialeah, FL, two warm locations favored by retirees.  Larger cities like Miami and San Francisco also make the top ten cities with a percentage of older Americans.

    On the other hand, Irving, TX has the lowest percentage of people under the age of 65, with just 7.4% of the population being in this high risk group. Santa Ana, CA and Austin, TX round out the bottom three cities with the lowest percentage of people under 65 years of age.

    Lastly, let’s look at which cities have the most people over the age of 65 living there:

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    New York City has the most inhabitants over 65+ years old by a huge margin. Almost 1.2 million New Yorkers are over the age of 65, more than twice as many as the second place city, Los Angeles. New York City currently has the highest know number of coronavirus infections in America by a large margin and may soon exceed the total in Wuhan, China.

    *  *  *

    In discussions about how to solve the coronavirus economics crisis, some people have suggested that high risk elderly people just need to avoid the virus or that only a small number of people are really at risk. While this sentiment is misguided on a number of different levels, it overlooks the sheer quantity of Americans that are at risk simply because of their age. In states like Florida and Maine and cities like Scottsdale, it would mean risking the health and lives of an enormous part of the population.


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 03/31/2020 – 23:25

  • Money Market Fund No Longer Accepting New Cash Amid Panic Bid For Treasury Bills
    Money Market Fund No Longer Accepting New Cash Amid Panic Bid For Treasury Bills

    Even before the March market meltdown, the T-Bill market was starting to exhibit symptoms of shortage which was hardly a surprise: after all, as part of its “not-QE” farce where Powell desperately tried to fool the market that he wasn’t engaging in outright QE so as not to spook investors that things are just as bad as they turned out to be (we all know how that worked out for him now that the Fed is monetizing over $100BN per day) the Federal Reserve was buying $60BN in Bills each month to bail out hedge funds somehow “fix” the repo market. It’s also why in mid-January, before anyone had heard of the Coronavirus, we said that as a result of a huge net drain in Bills  (i.e., upcoming shortage) the Fed would have no choice but to expand its QE to coupon securities in just months (which it did with a bang).

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    And then just as questions started to swirl about an upcoming Bill shortage, the coronacrisis happened and unleashed a once in a generation scramble for the safety of cash-equivalent securities, chief among them T-Bills making the occasional shortage into the bread shelf at a Brooklyn Costco during the coronavirus quarantine. Naturally, after this surge in demand, Bill yields broke below 0% and turned negative through 3 months even though the Fed has sworn it will never go full NIRP.

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    It wasn’t just the Fed and institutional traders who rushed into the safety of Bills (which as we explained previously, provided a risk free guaranteed profit if purchased at the minimum auction yield of 0.000% and then sold at a negative yield in the open market) – so did retail investors, and the result was a record surge in Money Market Funds investing in government securities, i.e., Bills…

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    … as investors staged a furious run out of “prime” (which is a delightful misnomer) money markets.

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    The result was a “perfect storm” of demand for a security that – along with gold – was suddenly the world’s biggest safe haven.

    And, in a bizarre twist, today fund giant Fidelity said it would stop accepting new money into three money market funds that invest in US Treasuries, as it sought to protect existing investors from the dramatic decline in interest rates since the outbreak of coronavirus.

    As shown in the chart above, with assets in government money market funds exploding, assets in Fidelity’s three funds soared by more than $23BN to $85BN during this month’s clamor for safe assets, and new money has had to be invested in Bills which over the past two weeks have traded with negative yields, assuring losses for anyone who held them through maturity in a few weeks. As a result, new investments into negative yielding Bills could dilute returns for existing investors in the funds, Fidelity said.

    In a note to investors seen by the Financial Times, Fidelity said that its Fidelity Treasury Only Money Market Fund, Fidelity Institutional Money Market Treasury Only Portfolio and Fidelity Institutional Money Market Treasury Portfolio would close to new investors from the end of Tuesday.

    “Restricting inflows will help reduce the number of new Treasury securities that the funds will need to purchase,” the investor note said. “That’s important because the newer issues generally have lower yields than the funds’ current holdings, and as such they would affect the funds’ ability to continue to deliver positive net yields to shareholders.”

    To say that this is ironic is an understatement: whereas most asset managers would kill to have too much demand for a given asset, in this case it’s just the opposite – the fact that there is a relentless surge of demand for Bills which would only push yields even more negative, has made the fund uneconomical and is forcing Fidelity to impose limits for new investors.

    “The faster these funds take in new money, the faster returns head to zero,” said Pete Crane, who runs money market fund data provider Crane Data. “The only glimmer of hope is that the torrential flows into Treasury money market funds has some of them looking to shut their doors. Fidelity is doing this to protect existing investors.”

    According to the FT, existing holders of the three affected funds will still be able to add more money. The closures to new investors do not affect the rest of Fidelity’s range of money market funds which invest in Treasury and other government debt.

    And yet, as we noted last night, all this could reverse instantly and the record deluge into Bills may be about to end with a bang. As we reported last night, “The Flood Begins: Treasury To Sell Over A Quarter Trillion Bills In 48 Hours“, which means that while until now demand dominated, suddenly investors will get concerned about all the supply that is about to be unleashed.

    And in a remarkable shift, whereas most of the T-Bill curve yesterday through 3M was negative, just 24 hours later it is again back in positive territory…

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    … a staggering overnight reversal.

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    Subadra Rajappa, SocGen’s head of US rates strategy echoed what we said on Monday, namely that an expected deluge of new issuance of Treasury bills, to fund the record $2tn stimulus package agreed by US legislators last week, could change behavior: “Once you start seeing the supply surge, you might start to see money funds more willing to take in extra cash.”

    Which again is an understatement: if and when the realization that the Treasury is about to swamp the globe with its debt dawns on investors as they realize that helicopter money, aka Magic Money Tree has arrived for good, not only will gold be the only money-good instrument, but all those money funds that are turning down cash now will be begging for it tomorrow.


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 03/31/2020 – 23:22

  • UBS: Does Anyone Know What Is Happening?
    UBS: Does Anyone Know What Is Happening?

    Authored by UBS Chief Economist, Paul Donovan

    Does anyone know what is happening?

    • Economic data is likely to become increasingly unreliable as a result of the coronavirus lockdown. We know the global economy will be bad. We will not know, with much accuracy, just how bad.
    • Annualizing data is absurd in the current climate. What happens in the second quarter is not going to be repeated for the rest  of the year. Time to stop annualizing numbers.
    • Most economic data is survey based. Industrial production, some unemployment numbers, inflation numbers, GDP and the various sentiment opinion polls need people to fill in surveys. If you are filling in survey forms in a lockdown you are likely to be an unusual person, and possibly not representative.
    • Social media spreads fear and affects sentiment. Sentiment affects answers to surveys. Data, like consumer price inflation, includes restaurant prices, but restaurants are closed. What happens when you survey something that is not there?
    • Online spending is likely to have increased in lockdowns. Online spending may stay higher after the lockdowns end. It may not be properly captured in official data.
    • Some data items are more reliable than others. Investors need to be careful about putting economic numbers into investment models, however. Garbage in means garbage out.

    The global economy is going to have a very bad few months. Fear of the coronavirus has changed consumer behavior. Government policy aims to cut GDP growth in most major economies. But we may not really know what is actually going on in these economies. The quality of economic data is going to be affected by shutdowns. So where are the problems?

    Annualizing

    One problem is the US habit of “annualizing” its data. A few other economies also do this. This is never a great idea in normal times. It is an absurd thing to do now.

    Annualization works by saying that what happens in one quarter will keep on happening, exactly the same way, for a year. Economic activity in the second quarter is going to be badly hit by shutdowns. No one imagines that this will be repeated for a whole year. US GDP might drop 7.5% in the second quarter. No sensible economist thinks that US GDP will drop 30% over the next year, but that is how annualization reports it.

    The sensible approach is to ignore annualized numbers. Focusing on the quarterly changes is quite bad enough. There is no need to sensationalize the data.

    Surveying a shutdown

    Nearly all data is survey-based. That is obvious for things like sentiment opinion polls. But US unemployment is also a survey. The unemployment rate is categorized in the “household survey” part of the data. Across the world, industrial production is a survey. Retail sales numbers are surveys. Inflation data are surveys, normally weighted using the results of different surveys. GDP is a mass of surveys put together.

    One of the reasons data quality has fallen in recent years is that fewer people fill in surveys. Those that do are less likely to answer all the questions. Surveys are a nuisance to do. In the age of email you can barely leave a shop or hotel without being asked to do a survey. People are fed up of answering questions.

    In the current crisis, even fewer people are likely to want to fill in a survey. A business owner is not likely to want to answer detailed questions on retail sales in an economic lockdown. Anyone who does take the time to fill in a survey in the middle of this uncertainty is going to be “unusual”. Right now you probably do not want the opinion of anyone who wants to give you their opinion.

    Businesses that are very busy (like food shops) will not answer government data surveys. Businesses that have shut down (like restaurants) will not answer government data surveys. There is a risk that data is based on a smaller and less representative sample of answers in an economic lockdown.

    What if there isn’t anything to survey?

    Measuring inflation is a problem in a shutdown. In the UK, restaurants and hotels are over 11% of the consumer price index. But restaurants are closed. What do you do about their prices? It seems pointless including the restaurant meals in consumer price inflation. People have stopped spending on various leisure activities and travel. (Unless people cancelled their subscription they will still  spend on gym membership). If people are not spending, should the prices be counted?

    In the United States medical care services are over 7% of the consumer price basket. A small sample of treatments are used to represent medical costs. But the medical care people used to pay for is no longer being bought. Medical care is focused on dealing with consequences of the coronavirus. So what is being paid for is now different. This will not be properly reflected in the prices.

    Overall the demand shock of phase one should be disinflationary. It is unlikely to be measured properly. Producer prices may be more accurate than consumer prices. Producer prices are not affected by retail stores, or bars and restaurants closing. But some factories are closing (e.g. the auto sector). Gradually producer prices will also try to measure something that is not there.

    Natural disasters, strikes and similar events sometimes mean that there is nothing to survey in part of an economy. However, this is often limited to a part of the country (for instance, US hurricanes). Alternatively only a relatively small sector is closed, as with as strike. Estimates can be made for the effect of the lost data. These estimates are often published alongside the numbers. The problem currently is that economies are shutting down nationally. Entire industries are closing. It is not going to be easy to adjust for that.

    The rise of online

    Economic lockdowns have increased online spending. People are shopping for the things that they need online. This is very evident in online food sales. People are also going online for gaming or films while stuck at home. This is a structural change in the way people consume. The move to online spending may continue after the lockdown. Once people start online spending, they may be more reluctant to go back to shopping in stores. However, economic data can be slow to recognize  such structural breaks. Consumer spending may be under reported if the surge in importance of online spending is not properly captured. It is worth noting that consumption data generally registers the time of sale, not the time of delivery. The sale is recorded, even if there is a delay in the customer receiving their purchase.

    Some larger firms are under pressure to close online sales. This is because large numbers of people work together to supply goods in large firms. For smaller firms this is less of a problem. But the fact that smaller firms may find online sales easier may also make such sales harder to capture in economic data. Some firms may also have problems finding supply. This will give an uneven change to online sales. That may also create problems with measurement. If the firms questioned are not representative of the whole sector, the data will not be correct.

    There has been some evidence of under-reporting online activity in China. Online services are not generally reported in the economic data. There is also evidence that internet activity grew faster during the recent lockdown than officially reported online retail sales.

    What can we look at?

    What data can be relied upon in the lockdown period? As a general rule, data that avoids surveys or sentiment will be more reliable US initial jobless claims could be more reliable than US unemployment. Initial jobless claims require people to actually register. Many European unemployment numbers are based on people who file a claim. This will be reliable.

    Data, like bank lending, should also be reliable. This has to be supplied for regulatory reasons, and is not done by a survey.

    Investors are turning to data sources like electricity use to estimate what is happening to economies. This data needs to be used carefully. People working from home will still contribute to GDP, but electricity consumption will fall. Countries with a lot of manufacturing will tend to have larger drops in electricity use than countries that are more service sector focused, even if GDP falls equally in both places. Industries like steel use a lot of power relative to the amount of GDP they produce.

    Similarly, measures of traffic or pollution in cities are only approximate measures of economic activity. Where people are able to work from home they will add to GDP without travelling. Again, the ability to work effectively from home will differ depending on what makes up an economy. A worker making cars will find it difficult to work from home. Economists often work from home.

    The challenge

    Investors will have to realize that we do not know what is going on during the worst phases of the coronavirus crisis. The quality of economic data is going to be lower. Whole sections of data cannot be captured properly. Data is likely to be revised a lot. The fashion for “big data” also needs to be treated with care. In a period of structural upheaval, economic relationships change.

    The UK Office of National Statistics has already warned of reduced quality and reduced detail in some of its data. It has also highlighted the possibility of suspending some data publication.

    For a few months, investors need to be very careful about using economic data in investment models. If the data is wrong, models will be wrong. Remember the computing adage—garbage in, garbage out.

     


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 03/31/2020 – 23:10

  • 'Relax, Eat Out & Shop': China In Desperate Bid To Jump-Start Paralyzed Consumer Economy
    ‘Relax, Eat Out & Shop’: China In Desperate Bid To Jump-Start Paralyzed Consumer Economy

    As China believes it’s over the coronavirus hump, with signs that “normal” could be just around the corner, leaders in Beijing are attempting to jump-start the economy once again. “Relax, eat out and shop. That’s the latest message from the Chinese government to its people, after months of warning them to stay indoors because of the coronavirus,” Bloomberg writes.

    We noted earlier that it’s smaller employers that remain the beating heart of China’s economy, accounting for 99.8% of registered companies in China, employing 79.4% of workers, and contributing more than 60% of gross domestic product and, for the government, more than 50% of tax revenue. The fact that retail sales plunged 20.5% in January and February and once-bustling malls and market spaces remain largely empty means many cash-strapped small businesses are unlikely to survive long enough to see consumers return to the streets in normal numbers.

    Yet residents, after months in self-isolation, with whole cities and provinces that were on government enforced lockdown only now opening their gates, might have good reason to be skittish and untrusting about venturing out to cafes, restaurants and malls – given fears a dreaded potential ‘second wave’ could hit – but also given rampant unemployment due to the national shutdown (with some 5 million losing their jobs in the first two months of 2020 alone) will naturally encourage more families to stay in thrift mode, forgoing their regular consumption habits of better times before the outbreak.

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    Nearly empty shopping mall during a normally busy time in Beijing, in late February. Image source: AFP via Getty

    It’s a sign that Western nations like Spain, the UK and US could take much longer than leaders expect to open up their economies again, belying such notions and wishes for an “Easter miracle” as Trump recently expressed, but later walked back from.

    China’s attempt to get shoppers back out again into once bustling but now largely empty markets and night-life venues has involved unprecedented state-sponsored incentives and perks, including local authorities distributing vouchers to residents akin to ‘freebies’ and coupons, urging companies to allow paid time-off for ‘shopping half-days’, and local governments issuing subsidies on car purchases and other large items.

    Nationwide the population has been subject to multi-million dollar ad campaigns geared toward getting people consuming again. “Domestic media are playing up stories of officials venturing out to enjoy local delights like bubble tea, hot pot and pork buns,” Bloomberg reports. “Images of bureaucrats dining out and shopping are a sharp departure from the austerity that resulted from President Xi Jinping’s unprecedented anti-corruption crackdown, which made many cadres scared to be caught doing anything that could be construed as ostentatious.”

    “I would be grateful just to keep my job,” one woman employed by a small business told Bloomberg. “For my colleagues and I, we are still eating at home as much as possible. Going to public places doesn’t feel safe.”

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    In bad news for a country attempting to stave off the coming global consumer default tsunami, people’s instincts on an emotional and psychological level are to react conservatively even as cities and markets open up. As Bloomberg notes, the anticipated so-called “revenge spending” has yet to come to large-scale effect on the ground:

    Many in China have been banking on pent up demand they hoped would be unleashed once restrictions were eased, so much so that “revenge spending” has become a buzzword on social media.

    The revival on the ground has been more tepid, prompting an influential Chinese economist to call for more direct stimulus such as the cash handouts employed by Hong Kong.

    And again, this looks to be the negative blueprint for woes that the West – with its economies still “on pause” and with April essentially ‘canceled’ – still has coming.

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    “China’s consumer recovery will shed some light on what may happen in the rest of the world as the outbreak eventually peaks and recedes,” Ned Salter, head of equities research at Fidelity International, was quoted in the Bloomberg report as saying.

    “There are clear signs of recovery across segments, although the pace of normalization is somewhat slow. We need to see more consumer confidence to sustain the improvement,” Salter added.

    Indeed China as the world’s largest consumer market is one that economists, pundits and politicians in the West will keep a very close eye on to see what measures work, and how quickly signs of recovery come, once the pandemic is firmly under control and all major cities are over the hump.


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 03/31/2020 – 23:05

  • China's Fake Number Parade Continues: Caixin PMI Soars, Prints Just Barely In "Expansion"
    China’s Fake Number Parade Continues: Caixin PMI Soars, Prints Just Barely In “Expansion”

    One day after China’s official National Bureau of Statistics decided to have some fun at the expense of the sinking US economy, and despite suffering an unprecedented economic crash itself, reported laughably high March PMI numbers, with both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs surging from their record February lows, smashing expectations by the most on record and in the case of manufacturing’s 52.0 print, rising to the highest level since September 2017 in an apparent confirmation of a V-shaped recovery in China …

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    … moments ago the parade of fake numbers out of China continued apace, when Markit reported that the Caixin PMI, which focuses on small companies and private firms (unlike the official PMI number, which tracks mostly state-owned enterprises and other large-sized companies) also smashed expectations of 45.5, and soared from 40.3 in February to the smallest possible print in expansion territory: 50.1

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    While a remarkable rebound was to be expected after yesterday’s farcical numbers which clearly had a political justification, namely to show Washington just how strongly China’s economy had rebounded – even though as we reported China is suddenly drowning in massive unemployment and facing a tidal wave of consumer defaults – the fact that the Caixin PMI landed precisely at the smallest possible print in expansion territory was yet another obvious joke at the expense of anyone who still believes China reports anything remotely close to honest numbers, whether involving the economy or the coronavirus epidemic.

    This is what Markit had to say about today’s laughable print out of China:

    After deteriorating at the quickest pace on record in February, business conditions faced by Chinese manufacturers were broadly stable in March. Production rose slightly as more firms reopened following widespread company shutdowns and travel restrictions in February amid the Coronavirus diseases 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak. However, the pandemic continued to weigh on demand conditions and supply chains, with total new work falling for the second month running and delivery times lengthening sharply.

    Firms remained upbeat that production would increase over the next year, however, as a number of manufacturers expect
    demand to recover once the COVID-19 outbreak subsides. 

    The headline seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) – a composite indicator designed to provide a single-figure snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – rose from a record low of 40.3 in February to 50.1 in March, to signal a broad stabilisation of business conditions. This marked a strong improvement from the previous month when the nation imposed strict measures to stem the spread of COVID-19.

    It wasn’t exactly clear how there was a broad stabilizaition of business conditions at a time when not only half of China’s workforce is still MIA, but most of China’s foreign clients have shuttered either temporarily or permanently. But if there is one thing we have learned about China, it is to never ask questions and just accept the numbers, no matter how fake they are. And in light of this…

    Business confidence regarding the one-year outlook for output held close to February’s five-year high, with many firms optimistic that demand will pick up once the pandemic situation improves.

    … they wouldn’t be more fake:

    It gets better, commenting on the China General Manufacturing PMI data, Zhengsheng Zhong, Chairman and Chief  Economist at CEBM Group said:

    “The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.1 in March from a record low the previous month, indicating limited improvement in manufacturing activity after widespread economic stagnation in February. The data in the survey, which was conducted from March 12 to March 23, reflected that manufacturers were still gradually getting back to work. The March expansion in the manufacturing sector returned to a level seen before the coronavirus epidemic.

    * * *

    Manufacturers were still quite confident about the next 12 months, although the gauge for future output expectations fell slightly from the previous month. Employment was also relatively stable. The employment subindex returned to the normal level before the epidemic outbreak, despite staying in negative territory. The good news was that fundamental economic factors, such as business confidence and resident income, did not deteriorate substantially.

    To sum up, the manufacturing sector was under double pressure in March: business resumption was insufficient; and worsening external demand and soft domestic consumer demand restricted production from expanding further. Whereas, business confidence was still high and the job market basically returned to the pre-epidemic level, laying a positive foundation for the economy’s rapid recovery after the epidemic.”

    In other words, China’s economy had recovered to levels prior to the coronavirus crash, yet paradoxically at the same time “business resumption was insufficient; and worsening external demand and soft domestic consumer demand restricted production from expanding further.” How this makes sense is anyone’s guess, but clearly it was enough for Markit to conclude that the Chinese economy was once again back into expansion.

    Our take: the “stimulus” check from Beijing to Markit cleared.


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 03/31/2020 – 22:48

  • Is The Pandemic Killing Biden's Bid?
    Is The Pandemic Killing Biden’s Bid?

    Authored by Patrick Buchanan via Buchanan.org,

    “This is the question that is going to dominate the election: How did you perform in the great crisis?”

    So says GOP Congressman Tom Cole of Oklahoma in today’s New York Times.

    GOP National Committeeman Henry Barbour of Mississippi calls the crisis “a defining moment… The more (Trump) reassures Americans, gives them the facts and delivers results, the harder it will be for Joe Biden.”

    Indeed, it is not a stretch to say Trump’s presidency will stand or fall on the resolution of the coronavirus crisis and how Trump is perceived as having led us in that battle. Recent polls appear to confirm that.

    Though daily baited by a hostile media for being late to recognize the severity of the crisis, in one Gallup poll a week ago, Trump was at 49% approval, the apogee of his presidency, with 60% of the nation awarding him high marks for his handling of the pandemic.

    What was the public’s assessment of how Trump’s antagonists in the media have performed in America’s great medical crisis?

    Of 10 institutions, with hospitals first, at 88% approval, the media came in dead last, the only institution whose disapproval, at 55%, exceeded the number of Americans with a favorable opinion of their performance.

    The media are paying a price in lost reputation with the nation they claim to represent by reassuming the role of “adversary press” in a social crisis where, whatever one’s view of Donald Trump, the country wants the president to succeed.

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    If Biden begins to mimic a hostile media, baiting Trump at every turn, pointing out conflicts in his views, Joe will invite the same fate the media seem to have brought upon themselves.

    Since that Gallup poll, Trump has been seen daily by millions in the role of commander in chief. He speaks from the podium in the White House briefing room or the Rose Garden just outside the Oval Office. He is invariably flanked by respected leaders in medicine, science, business and economics. All appear as Trump allies, and Trump treats them as his field commanders in the war on the virus.

    And Joe Biden? He pops up infrequently in interviews out of the basement of his Delaware home where, sheltering in place, he reads short scripted speeches from a teleprompter.

    And Biden’s presence has been wholly eclipsed by daily televised appearances of Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who is at the epicenter of the crisis in New York. Cuomo is taking on the aspect of both rival and partner to Trump.

    What Trump is doing calls to mind Richard Nixon’s “Rose Garden strategy” in 1972. Though goaded by the press, Nixon avoided attacking his opponent, George McGovern, and declined to engage him on issues. Instead, Nixon used the Rose Garden to highlight popular initiatives.

    Candidate Nixon’s campaign strategy in 1972 was not to campaign.

    But if Biden cannot gather crowds to hear him in a time of social distancing, how does he get his message out? How does he attack Trump without appearing to undermine the president in his role as a wartime commander in chief, where America wants Trump to succeed?

    How does a basement-bound Biden compete with Trump in the Oval Office, Cabinet Room, East Room and Rose Garden?

    Whom does Biden call upon to rival Trump’s instant access to respected leaders eager to come and stand beside the president in the most serious crisis since World War II?

    How does Biden recapture the spotlight of Super Tuesday?

    Sen. Bernie Sanders wants Biden to come out and debate. But that seems a no-win proposition.

    Moreover, when Biden appears on camera, he often seems confused and forgetful, loses his train of thought and doesn’t remember what he came to say. The sense that Biden is losing it is taking hold, and not only on the Republican right.

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    Democrats have to be looking closely at Cuomo’s success, as they wonder how Biden will stand up in the debates with Trump six months from now.

    And what lies ahead for Democrats when spring turns into summer?

    The Tokyo Olympics, scheduled to begin July 24, have been postponed until 2021. The Democratic National Convention, scheduled for Milwaukee even earlier in July, has yet to be postponed.

    But if Tokyo recognizes it would be a terrible risk to the health of athletes and spectators to have people come from all over the world to Japan this summer, would it not also be an intolerable risk to have Americans from all 50 states and U.S. territories arrive for a week of mingling in midsummer in Milwaukee?

    For Biden to win this election, Trump must lose it.

    And the one way Trump can lose it is the perception on the part of a majority of Americans that he has proven an ineffectual president in America’s worst pandemic since the Spanish flu of 1918.

    If Trump is seen as the victor over the virus, Biden is toast.


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 03/31/2020 – 22:45

  • 'Texas Miracle' "On Ice For Time Being" As Crude-Carnage & COVID-Chaos Double-Whammy Strikes Lone-Star State
    ‘Texas Miracle’ “On Ice For Time Being” As Crude-Carnage & COVID-Chaos Double-Whammy Strikes Lone-Star State

    West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot prices plunged 7.5% to the 19-handle on Sunday evening, hitting lows not seen since 2002. 

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    WTI has crashed 70% in the last 56 trading sessions amid the COVID-19 crisis triggering a demand bust across the world. As a result, an economic storm risks triggering a shale debt bomb in Texas, jeopardizing the state’s $1.8 trillion economy and may damage crude output from the Permian basin that has more than quadrupled in a decade.

    In three weeks’ time, Saudi Arabia and Russia launched an oil price war that has sent WTI prices tumbling 57% and now risks imminent doom for US shale (and its junk bonds). More specifically, Texas accounts for 42% of US crude output and has been hit with twin shocks: one from waning crude demand, and another from the COVID-19 outbreak forcing the state to issue a “stay at home” public health order – restricting the travel of residents.

    The collapse in oil prices this time around is more unique than past ones, mostly because demand has evaporated overnight due to a pandemic with no clear timetables of when it will return. A major concern for producers is that the recovery might not be V-shape… 

     “As much a tragedy as the coronavirus is, most states are dealing with one problem. Texas is dealing with two because we’re dealing with coronavirus and the dramatic drop in oil and gas prices,” Dale Craymer, president of the Texas Taxpayers and Research Association and a former state budget director, told Financial Times.

    Plains All-American, a pipeline company, was offering WTI per barrel for $17.50 on Friday, a drastic discount from $63 in January. Drillers need about $49 per barrel to stay profitable, a prolonged downturn under $40 for several years could bankrupt 40% of all US shale.  

    Texas has been diversifying into other industries such as healthcare, transport, and technology, to make its economy more resilient if oil prices fall. Every $1 decline in WTI price equates to an $85 million loss in tax revenue per year, Craymer’s group estimates.

    For the current budget cycle, Texas was expecting oil and gas taxes would generate $5.5 billion, of which $1.6 billion would be transferred to an emergency fund. However, the budget cycle was based on $58 oil prices.

    The state is expected to start drawing from its emergency fund as oil and gas taxes plus sales taxes will be significantly lower as the pandemic has likely triggered a depression in the US economy for the second quarter. 

    To make matters worse, 155,000 Texans filed for unemployment benefits last week, the most significant increase in a given week in more than three decades.

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    “As far as the ‘Texas Miracle'” — the state’s oft-touted outperformance of the rest of the US economy — “it’s on ice for the time being,” Craymer said.

    Texas oil output is expected to decline in the second half of the year as investments in exploration and drilling contracts are reduced or canceled.

    “My outlook on the domestic oil and gas industry has never been bleaker,” one executive told the Dallas Fed. Another grimly joked: “What is the difference between a Texas oilman and a pigeon? The pigeon can put down a deposit on a new Mercedes.”

    We noted that Mizuho’s Paul Sankey estimates that the global oil market is incredibly oversupply, and “crude prices could go negative as Saudi and Russian barrels enter the market.”


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 03/31/2020 – 22:25

  • How The Fed Sows Social Division And Mistrust
    How The Fed Sows Social Division And Mistrust

    Authored by Nick Hankoff via The Mises Institute,

    The Federal Reserve’s zero interest rate policy and industry bailouts threaten more than just the fragile economy. The very foundation of the social order risks permanent fracturing under this system of moral hazard.

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    In Human Action, Ludwig von Mises defined society as “joint action and cooperation in which each participant sees the other partner’s success as a means for the attainment of his own.” Without social trust, there is no society. Private property and the division of labor, the hallmarks of a civilization, arise out of cooperation.

    In a strictly economic sense, all the malinvestment and capital destruction the Federal Reserve can muster can be overcome in the medium term. Capital gets restructured. However, in the social realm, bad economic policies can do irreversible harm under certain circumstances, especially when money creation is entrusted to a central bank. Yet the Fed is now doubling down on money creation as we see in the recent surprise decision by the Federal Reserve to not only lower interest rates to zero but also enact unlimited QE  — in order to purchase immense amounts of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, among other assets.

    The Political Fallout of the New Bailouts

    Central banks, however, often work to undermine this cooperation. The latest round of social disruption is seen in the recent surprise decision by the Federal Reserve to not only lower interest rates to zero but also enact unlimited QE  — in order to purchase immense amounts of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, among other assets.

    The purchase of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities amounts to a bailout to investment bankers and the U.S. government, while the rate drop undercuts vulnerable Americans dependent on savings.

    If that sounds familiar, it should be noted that the glaring difference between this drastic move and the last comparable one in 2008, is that 12 years ago a recession was already well underway.

    During the phone call news conference for the emergency announcement, Fed chairman Jerome Powell assured reporters that negative interest rates aren’t anticipated to be “appropriate” in the future. Even if that is true — which it probably isn’t — much damage has already been done in the form of asset price inflation which has made housing unaffordable to many while mostly inflating the portfolios of the wealthy.

    Many see this and will also see how large influential lobbying groups and huge corporations benefit most from the bailouts. 

    Undermining Social Trust

    Here is when social trust will get hit the hardest. If it’s already plain to see that the top of the financial food chain can’t be trusted, it can be expected that some Americans will see only degrees of difference between the ones responsible for inflation and those they perceive to be unfair beneficiaries of it.

    Consider the late 2018 Pew Research Center survey that found 26 percent of American adults feel they’ve been disadvantaged compared to others their own age. The poll found that the lower the household income and education level, the more likely someone would answer that they themselves were disadvantaged compared to their peers.

    While this sentiment might be founded in some truth, the survey also concluded that “low trusters,” those who exhibited low social trust levels, said they had fewer advantages in life 37 percent of the time. The higher the social trust level, the more likely the person answered that they had either equal or more advantages than their peers.

    Bailouts will contribute to the disintegration of social trust, to the extent that moral hazard is institutionalized. If it weren’t for the state “rescuing” the market, bankruptcies would open up opportunities to competitors and entrepreneurs eager to serve consumers in pursuit of profits. Instead, how well will consumers be served when business losses are paid back by the force of government?

    Moral hazard also extends to the individual level, and in this election year, the Trump administration is fearlessly diving headlong in that direction. It’s currently working out specifics of how to send roughly $2,000 to every taxpayer, as relief to the economic slowdown brought on by governments at all levels in the country. These so-called “covid checks” won’t be disseminated in accordance with new value created or any goods or services brought to market. They’ll simply encourage the behavior that preceded the giveaway: social distancing and idleness. Moreover, the covid checks will contribute to price inflation as more dollars chase a tepidly growing — or even decreasing — number of goods.

    The Economics of Central-Bank Fueled Inequality

    As increasing wages fail to keep up with the cost of living — whether due to asset-price inflation (i.e., housing) of consumer-price inflation — economic populism and social division will increase.

    Even if everyone chose to put off their spending for the next crisis, the Fed’s zero interest rate policy will do them no favors. Those with little time to save up would be even worse off.

    As conservative and safe methods of saving are closed off by ultra-low interest rates, “Society’s most vulnerable now must enter the stock market or take other kinds of risks just to hold on to their wealth,” Tom Woods writes in his book The Church and the Market.

    With the institutionalized moral hazard and political favoritism created by bailouts comes a culture of division that undermines the common good and the prospects of children and their posterity.

    Samuel Gregg writes at the Acton Institute blog about why culture matters for the economy, citing David C. Rose’s book “Why Culture Matters Most.”

    Rose stresses the importance of “the inculcation of duty-based moral restraint” above other moralistic calls for altruism and the like, because restraint from certain behaviors is what earns social trust. “Restraint,” however is more or less the opposite of what we’ll see from central bankers and government officials in the coming years.

    Society overall is likely to follow.


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 03/31/2020 – 22:05

  • "Stop Buying Masks"..? Oh Wait! CDC Considers Asking Public To Wear Face Masks
    “Stop Buying Masks”..? Oh Wait! CDC Considers Asking Public To Wear Face Masks

    Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

    This is irony at its finest.

    The United States Surgeon General used twitter to tell the public to NOT use face masks to protect against the coronavirus because they don’t work, they only work for health care workers. Now, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is considering a recommendation that people wear masks when in public.

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    We all remember this – when Surgeon General Jerome Adams tweet said it all “Stop Buying Masks!”:

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    He was not alone.

    World Health Organization officials Monday said they still recommend people not wear face masks unless they are sick with Covid-19 or caring for someone who is sick.

    “There is no specific evidence to suggest that the wearing of masks by the mass population has any potential benefit. In fact, there’s some evidence to suggest the opposite in the misuse of wearing a mask properly or fitting it properly,” Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of the WHO health emergencies program, said at a media briefing in Geneva, Switzerland, on Monday.

    “There also is the issue that we have a massive global shortage,” Ryan said about masks and other medical supplies.

    “Right now the people most at risk from this virus are frontline health workers who are exposed to the virus every second of every day. The thought of them not having masks is horrific.”

    We were told that face masks weren’t effective at preventing a coronavirus infection unless we are a healthcare worker, but now the CDC is saying otherwise.

    There’s still no consensus (meaning someone from the government hasn’t made a decision yet) on whether widespread use of facial coverings would make a significant difference, and some infectious disease experts worry that masks could lull people into a false sense of security and make them less disciplined about social distancing, according to a report by The Washington Post. 

    But studies done by doctors in the medical field have shown properly fitting N95 face masks to be about 80% effective.

    They are certainly better than nothing and could be used to get people back in public and the economy on a roll again. It’s an “ongoing discussion” however, and nothing has been finalized. The official, who asked to remain anonymous, said the new guidance would make clear that the general public should not use medical masks – including surgical and N95 masks – that are in desperately short supply and needed by health-care workers. So once again, the guidelines would be to “cover your face” not use a respirator that could actually stand a chance at protecting you.

    Nassim Taleb had strong feelings about the bullshit…

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    At the daily White House briefing Monday, President Trump was asked if everyone should wear nonmedical fabric masks.

    “That’s certainly something we could discuss,” Trump said, adding, “it could be something like that for a limited period of time.”

    It seems like the government can’t make up their mind on just about anything.  But the one thing they have been doing is expanding their power and getting the docile population in a constant state of fear.


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 03/31/2020 – 21:25

  • Airbnb Bails Out Highly Leveraged Superhosts As Travel Industry Crashes 
    Airbnb Bails Out Highly Leveraged Superhosts As Travel Industry Crashes 

    Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky wrote a letter to all hosts informing them that the company is committed to a $250 million bailout to cover some of the cost of COVID-19 cancellations. The canceled check-ins are for March 14 through May 31, Airbnb will pay hosts 25% of what they would’ve received via their cancellation policies, and the “payments will begin to be issued in April.”

    Chesky said a separate $10 million Superhost Relief Fund would be designed for “Superhosts who rent out their own home and need help paying their rent or mortgage, plus long-tenured Experience hosts trying to make ends meet. Our employees started this fund with $1 million in donations out of their own pockets, and Joe, Nate and I are personally contributing the remaining $9 million. Starting in April, hosts can apply for grants for up to $5,000 that don’t need to be paid back.”

    And here’s where the story gets interesting… 

    Of the four million Airbnb hosts across the world, 10% are considered “Superhosts,” and many have taken out mortgages to accumulate properties to build rental portfolios. 

    With the travel industry crashed, many of these Superhosts have seen their rental incomes plunge in March and risk missing mortgage payments in the months ahead. Chesky was forced to bailout Superhosts because some of these folks have overextended their leveraged in building an Airbnb portfolio and risk imminent deleveraging.

    Highly leveraged Superhosts could be the first domino to fall that triggers a housing bust this year. Superhosts can have one property and or have an extensive portfolio, usually built with leverage. So when rental income goes to zero, that is when some have to make the difficult decision of missing a mortgage payment or having it deferred or liquidate the property to raise cash. These decessions are all happening all at once for tens of thousands of people not just across the world but all over the US and could trigger forced selling of properties into illiquid housing markets in the months ahead.

    Some of the horror stories are already playing out on Twitter: 

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    And just like in 2008, when the rent payments stopped, landlords also felt the crunch and went belly up. What’s happening with highly leveraged Airbnb Superhosts is no different than what happened a decade ago. Again, no one has learned their lesson. And we might have discovered the next big seller that could ruin the real estate market: Airbnb Superhosts that need to get liquid. 

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    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 03/31/2020 – 21:05

  • The World Is Running Out Of Condoms As Factories Face COVID-19 Lockdown
    The World Is Running Out Of Condoms As Factories Face COVID-19 Lockdown

    Authored by Elias Marat via TheMindUnleashed.com,

    We’ve all seen the jokes on social media about how nine months from now a new generation will be born that will eventually be dubbed “Coronials” – and once they come of age, “quaranteens.

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    After all, if we’re stuck working from home or self-isolating along with our partner or significant other, it’s only natural and healthy for us to seek solace through sexual activity – and the increase in baby-making activities can naturally result in a miniature “baby boom.”

    But as it turns out, the joke may have some basis after all – especially because a global shortage of condoms could deprive couples staying at home from one of the more popular birth control methods.

    Reuters reports that Malaysia’s Karex Bhd, a company that is responsible for producing one out of every five condoms globally, spent over a week without producing a single condom at its three factories after the government imposed a lockdown to halt the spread of the coronavirus.

    This has resulted in a shortfall of 100 million condoms which normally would be marketed worldwide under such brands as Durex, distributed through aid programs like the United Nations Population Fund, and the U.K.’s National Health Service (NHS).

    On Friday, the company was granted permission to resume production under a special exemption for critical industries but with only half of its workforce.

    Chief Executive Goh Miah Kiat said:

    “It will take time to jumpstart factories and we will struggle to keep up with demand at half capacity.

    We are going to see a global shortage of condoms everywhere, which is going to be scary.

    My concern is that for a lot of humanitarian programs deep down in Africa, the shortage will not just be two weeks or a month. That shortage can run into months.”

    The news comes as condoms rank among toilet paper and hand sanitizer as one of the most sought-after items during the CoViD-19 crisis, reports Highsnobiety.

    Earlier this month, sex product retailer Promescent’s CEO Jeff Abraham confirmed that the company saw surging condom sales all month.

    Speaking to Business Wire, the executive said:

    “In fact, we’ve seen a 54 percent increase in our online sales since the beginning of the pandemic.

    With the tremendous effort put forth by so many government and local organizations, we want to do our part to ensure people are continuing to practice safe sex and have adequate access to birth control in a time of social distancing and self-isolation.”

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    Condom factories in China, India, and Thailand have also faced disruptions in their operations. Similar problems have also been faced by regional manufacturers of critical protective gear like medical gloves in Malaysia.

    A Durex spokesman reassured Reuters that operations would continue as normal, and no supply shortages are anticipated. They added:

    “For our consumers, many of whom will be unable to access shops, our Durex online stores remain open for business.”

    Goh added that while condom production may face interruptions, the demand for the contraceptive remains stronger than ever. He said:

    “The good thing is that the demand for condoms is still very strong because like it or not, it’s still an essential to have.

    Given that at this point in time people are probably not planning to have children. It’s not the time, with so much uncertainty.”


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 03/31/2020 – 20:45

  • "Sailors Don't Need To Die": Captain Of Nuclear Carrier With Over 100 COVID-19 Cases Pleads For Help
    “Sailors Don’t Need To Die”: Captain Of Nuclear Carrier With Over 100 COVID-19 Cases Pleads For Help

    In an astounding plea for help, the captain of the nuclear aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt has urged top command of the US Navy to take drastic action after more than 100 sailors aboard the ship have been infected with the coronavirus.

    More than a week ago it started with a handful of COVID-19 cases, which by the end of the week spiked to 36, causing the West Pacific-deployed carrier to dock at a naval station at Guam, ordering infected crew members out of the some 5,000 total into makeshift quarantine facilities, including a basketball gym hastily transformed for that purpose. The San Francisco Chronicle has obtained and published excerpts of an unprecedented plea for help written by the USS Roosevelt’s Captain Brett Crozier to Pentagon leadership:

    “This will require a political solution but it is the right thing to do,” wrote Capt. Brett Crozier, a Santa Rosa native, from Guam where his 1,092-foot carrier Theodore Roosevelt docked following a COVID-19 outbreak. “We are not at war. Sailors do not need to die. If we do not act now, we are failing to properly take care of our most trusted asset — our Sailors.”

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    USS Theodore Roosevelt, via US Navy photo

    In the letter Capt. Crozier warned that “Due to a warship’s inherent limitations of space… the spread of the diseast is ongoing and accelerating.” The SF Chronicle described that the letter was issued Monday as the captain fears there will be possible deaths among crew under his command if more resources aren’t immediately allocated. 

    It is unclear as yet how many of the crew have been quarantined on land at Guam, and how many still remain aboard the docked carrier. But it appears the ongoing attempts at quarantine and containment are not going fast enough, with less than necessary resources employed. Previously General John Hyten, the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said testing of the entire crew is expected to take a week minimum.

    Crozier further urgently requested “compliant quarantine rooms” on shore in Guam for his entire crew “as soon as possible”. He added“Removing the majority of personnel from a deployed US nuclear carrier and isolating them for two weeks may seem like an extraordinary measure… this is a necessary risk.”

    He outlined specific dangers of large amounts of the crew remaining on board the ship as follows, according to the SF Chronicle

    The tight quarters on the carrier are “most conducive to spread,” he wrote, including large amounts of sailors in a confined space, shared sleeping quarters, restrooms, workspaces and computers, a common mess hall, meals cooked by exposed personnel, and movement constraints requiring communal contact with ladders and hatches.

    The criticisms are aimed at the current strategy of merely moving the numbers of infected and immediate exposures off the ship, while increasing social distancing and disinfecting measures for the majority still on the ship, which he called “ineffective”.

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    And in perhaps the most unexpected and stunning section of the letter, the captain takes the unprecedented step of pointing out to top brass that focus on battle-readiness in this case will actually lead to potential significant loss of life:

    If the Navy focuses on being battle ready, it will lead to “losses to the virus,” Crozier said. The second option, the captain recommended: “Achieve a COVID-free TR.” Methodically clean the ship, while isolating the crew in port with a massive amount of individualized lodging equipment.

    The captain’s recommendation is to instead keep only 10% of the crew on board at any given time in order to initiate deep sanitization procedures and crucially to operate the reactor plant, according to the letter.

    No doubt the captain’s letter was not meant to go public, especially given America’s enemies and rivals are surely watching very closely. After all it took an ‘invisible enemy’ in the form of a virus infecting over 100 sailors to essentially knock out of commission an entire nuclear aircraft carrier. 


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 03/31/2020 – 20:25

  • As The Crisis Deepens, Keep An Eye On Illinois' Unpaid Bills
    As The Crisis Deepens, Keep An Eye On Illinois’ Unpaid Bills

    Authored by Ted Dabrowski and John Klingner via Wirepoints.org,

    The depth of the financial and economic impact of the Coronavirus is impossible to predict since we don’t know how far the virus will spread or how long the economic shutdown will last. But we do know that pension shortfalls will jump, borrowing will increase and the state budget hole will widen dramatically. Unfortunately, it will take months before all those numbers are reported and summed up.

    In the meantime, one number Illinoisans can keep an eye on is the state’s unpaid bill backlog, which currently stands at just over $7.5 billion. The state has been notorious for not paying its bills on time since 2005 and its backlog jumped to $17 billion in 2017.

    As the Coronavirus crisis deepens, don’t be surprised if unpaid bills begin rising again.

    Keep in mind that the unpaid bill number can be manipulated in many ways – we’ve covered that in detail – so the state can make the backlog look better than it really is. However, the backlog can serve as a limited gauge, in conjunction with other numbers, for how the state’s finances are holding up under the shutdown.

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    Illinois pols have constantly overpromised pension benefits, passed unbalanced budgets and hiked spending, all of which have left the state with a chronic bill backlog.

    There’s a real human cost to that backlog, which has long been an indicator of Illinois’ deadbeat status. Those billions should have already been paid to thousands of contractors across the state, many of them small businesses and social service providers which are among the hardest hit by the shutdown.

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    The pressures on the state are going to be intense as sales and income taxes and a host of other revenues shrink along with the economic freeze. The Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability expects revenue losses of over $8 billion for the state over the next few years. Unless the government reduces its operating costs in line with the shutdown – which it shows no signs of doing – expect the backlog to jump.

    Unpaid bills reached a high of over $16 billion in 2007, but the state government borrowed $6 billion via long-term bonds to bring the backlog down to just over $9 billion in November of 2017. This time around, unless the federal government steps in, borrowing money will be much more difficult. Barring some type of bailout, it’s easy to see the bill backlog rising again.

    For sure, other numbers will eventually reveal the true depth of just how unprepared Illinois was for this crisis. But in the meantime, just follow the unpaid bills.

    Read more about the impact of the Coronavirus on Illinois:


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 03/31/2020 – 20:05

  • Is This What's Behind Italy's Outrageous 10% Mortality Rate From COVID-19?
    Is This What’s Behind Italy’s Outrageous 10% Mortality Rate From COVID-19?

    Italy’s 10% mortality rate has been one of the most disturbing mysteries of the global pandemic. Italy’s mortality rate is roughly 20x Germany’s (a relatively benign 0.4%), and many multiples of China’s (roughly 2.5%) rate.

    As scientists puzzle over the reason, researchers have proposed a theory that’s being vetted by peers: Italy’s mild flu season left a larger victim pool for COVID-19. This would suggest that the US, which has struggled with more lethal flu seasons, won’t have as large a pool of potential high-risk victims, especially as testing suggests the virus is more widespread than many had expected.

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    A report by the Italian Ministry of Health found that elderly people and those with chronic diseases who were spared death by the flu from November through January are “outsize” targets for the more lethal novel coronavirus in March.

    But thanks to the fact that there were fewer flu deaths , this “led to an increase in the pool of the most vulnerable,” according to the report, which analyzed data from 19 Italian cities through March 21. In other words, when taken alongside flu season deaths, the bump in deaths would be much beyond what would normally be expected for a developed country struggling with a COVID-19 outbreak.

    COVID-19 has been spreading in some parts of Italy since early February. In the northern cities that have borne the brunt of Italy’s more than 12,000 deaths, flu mortality among people age 65 and over was 6% below a baseline from previous years. In the cities of central and southern Italy, flu deaths were 3% off the baseline.

    Could this account for enough deaths? It’s possible that it could account for at least some of the discrepancy.

    A chart shows how deaths among the 65-plus population during the coronavirus outbreak through March 21 has already reached the levels of the previous two flu seasons, and were still below the total flu season deaths from three seasons ago (the 2016-2017 season).

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    Mild temperatures were credited with the drop in flu deaths.

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    Understanding the history of Italy’s flu outbreaks could hold the key to explaining its outlandish mortality rate from COVID-19. Italy has reported more than 105,000 confirmed cases, along with 12,428 deaths.


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 03/31/2020 – 19:45

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 31st March 2020

  • Maersk Crew Hospitalized In First Ever COVID-19 Cases On Board A Container Ship
    Maersk Crew Hospitalized In First Ever COVID-19 Cases On Board A Container Ship

    Despite one of the the world’s largest shipping lines, Maersk, recently suspending all crew changes aboard its container vessels for up to one month in order to shield crew and operations from the coronavirus and keep them “as normal as possible,” this weekend witnessed the first ever confirmed cases aboard a container ship.

    In the past days reports have emerged that an entire crew from the Danish-flagged ship Gjertrud Maers have been tested, with some evacuated and hospitalized in Ningbo, China. A Maersk company spokesman later said in a press statement that “a number of our seafarers” on the ship were suspected for the virus.

    “As per our established protocols, the seafarers were isolated on the vessel when symptoms appeared and we are providing medical treatment based on input from our medical advisers,” the Maersk statement said.

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    File image: Getty/Market Watch

    “The vessel was awaiting phasing into our network and currently idle at the quayside in Ningbo, China,” it added. “Extra precaution measures will be taken for crew replacement and sanitations will be implemented.”

    Subsequent reports on Monday via state-run China News Service (CNS) indicate at least five of the crew members have tested positive for Covid-19, after a total of 22 foreign crew members were put in isolation aboard the ship while awaiting testing.

    Initially seven crew members were reported as having “abnormal physical condition” over a week ago. Maersk did not immediately confirm the crew tested positive, however.

    CEO of Maersk Ocean and Logistics, Vincent Clerc, late last week updated global customers and partners as to how the pandemic will impact shipping volume. He confirmed in a statement that necessary drastic actions taken by governments and companies to contain the spread of the virus will result in an economic slowdown. He added that recent interaction and conversations with customers “confirm our expectation of lower volume demand in the coming weeks.”

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    Clerc said further, “We are actively preparing our network to match a reduced demand level. We believe that it is our responsibility to rightsize in order to protect our cost position, both to be able to weather these storms but importantly also to ensure that you have a partner who cares for the integrity of your supply chain as we look to lifting the world out of this crisis.”

    Last month the company said it was bracing itself for coronavirus to impact its 2020 earnings hard

    Maersk said it expects earnings of around $5.5 billion this year, which is about 5% below what analysts had been predicting.

    …Maersk, the world’s largest container shipping company, has warned of a “very weak” start to the year as the coronavirus keeps factories shuttered in China and dents demand for the transport of goods.

    The Danish ship operator said Thursday [Feb.20] that it has canceled more than 50 trips to and from Asia since the Lunar New Year holiday was extended because of the outbreak. Shipping rates are expected to decrease as demand slips, the company said in an earnings report.

    The company’s forecast for shipping volume growth of less than 1% is “pretty downbeat,” giving it some breathing space if the impact of the coronavirus is worse than expected, said Michael Field, an analyst at Morningstar…

    “We estimate factories in China are operating at 50% to 60% of capacity,” CEO Søren Skou said on an earnings call.

    Already countries in the West, often over-reliant on manufacturing in East Asia, are feeling the crunch of limited supplies of shipped goods as port activity dries up on significantly lower volumes. This is especially the case when it comes to vital medical supplies, including items as simple as protective medical gear like gowns, masks, and gloves.


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 03/31/2020 – 02:45

  • How "Progressive" Ideology Led To COVID-19 Catastrophe In Spain
    How “Progressive” Ideology Led To COVID-19 Catastrophe In Spain

    Authored by Soeren Kern via The Gatestone Institute,

    The Spanish government, comprised of a coalition of Socialists and Communists, is facing legal action for alleged negligence in its handling of the coronavirus pandemic. The government is accused of putting its narrow ideological interests ahead of the safety and wellbeing of the public, and, in so doing, unnecessarily worsening the humanitarian crisis now gripping Spain, currently the second-worst afflicted country in Europe after Italy.

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    A class action lawsuit filed on March 19 accuses the Spanish government — highly ideological by any standard, as the Communist coalition partner, Podemos, was founded with seed money from the Venezuelan government — of knowingly endangering public safety by encouraging the public to participate in more than 75 feminist marches, held across Spain on March 8, to mark International Women’s Day.

    The nationwide rallies were aimed at protesting the government’s perennial bugbear: the alleged patriarchy of Western civilization.

    Hundreds of thousands of people participated in those marches, and several high-profile attendees — including Spain’s deputy prime minister, as well as the prime minister’s wife and mother, and also the wife of the leader of Podemos — have since tested positive for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). It is unknown how many people were infected by the coronavirus as a result of the rallies.

    The lawsuit, involving more than 5,000 plaintiffs, accuses Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and his representatives in Spain’s 17 autonomous regions of “prevarication” — a Spanish legal term that means lying and deceiving. The government was allegedly so determined to ensure that the feminist marches took place on March 8 that it deliberately downplayed warnings about the pandemic. These warnings include:

    • September 2019. The Global Preparedness Monitoring Board, an international panel of experts convened by the World Bank and the World Health Organization (WHO), warned of a “very real threat of a rapidly moving, highly lethal pandemic of a respiratory pathogen killing 50 to 80 million people and wiping out nearly 5% of the world’s economy.

    • December 31. China alerted WHO to several cases of unusual pneumonia in Wuhan, a port city of 11 million people in the central Hubei province. The virus was unknown.

    • January 7. China identified the new coronavirus as the cause of a mystery disease in Wuhan.

    • January 21. WHO confirmed human-to-human transmission of the virus.

    • January 29. Spanish pharmaceutical cooperatives warned that pharmacies were running out of masks due to a surge in demand. Sales of masks surged by 3,000% in January compared to the year before.

    • January 30. WHO Director-General declared the coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency of international concern.

    • January 31. The first known case of COVID-19 in Spain was confirmed in La Gomera, Canary Islands, where a German tourist tested positive and was admitted to a local hospital.

    • February 12. Mobile World Congress, the world’s largest mobile phone trade fair, which draws more than 100,000 participants from 200 countries, was cancelled due to fears of coronavirus. The financial loss to Barcelona and the city’s hospitality industry was estimated to be €500 million ($560 million).

    • February 24. More than 1,000 guests and employees at the Costa Adeje Palace hotel in Tenerife, Canary Islands, were quarantined after an Italian citizen tested positive for COVID-19.

    • February 27. A 62-year-old man from Seville tested positive for COVID-19. His was the first case of local transmission of the virus in Spain. The man said that he believed he was infected during a banking conference in Malaga, where he sat next to a partner who traveled to the Canary Islands on vacation and had had contact with people from Asia. Doctors said that the diagnosis was of “great importance” because it proved that COVID-19 has been circulating in Spain without detection.

    • March 2. The European Center for Disease Control and Prevention advised European countries to cancel mass gatherings of people to prevent the transmission of coronavirus.

    • March 2. The Spanish Medical Agency sent a letter to pharmaceutical distributors to restrict the marketing of masks and to block their distribution across Spanish pharmacies. The agency’s objective, on the advice of the Ministry of Health, was to ensure the supply of masks to hospitals and health centers at a time when the number of confirmed cases was beginning to multiply. The measure blocked sales to Spanish pharmacies, as well as sales abroad.

    • March 3. The regional health ministry in Valencia announced that the first coronavirus fatality in Spain died on February 13. Health authorities did not know he had the virus until 19 days after his death — an indication that Spanish authorities have been slow to understand the outbreak. Since coronavirus cases that end in death last between two and eight weeks, in addition to a 14-day incubation period, it is possible that the man was infected as early as the beginning of January.

    • March 3. Spanish authorities ordered major football and basketball matches to be held behind closed doors with no spectators allowed to prevent the spread of coronavirus.

    • March 6. The Spanish Ministry of Health advised: “The precautionary principle must prevail. The emergence of a hitherto unknown virus means that precautionary measures must be taken based on the existing scientific knowledge regarding viruses.”

    On March 7, despite these warnings, the Spanish government’s main point man for the coronavirus, Fernando Simón, claimed in a nationwide press conference that there was no risk of attending the rallies on March 8.

    “If my son asks me if he can go, I will tell him to do whatever he wants,” he said.

    The intrepid, Spain-based journalist Matthew Bennett discovered that the Spanish government failed to report new coronavirus cases between March 6 and March 9, apparently in an effort to downplay the danger to the public of attending the rallies.

    On March 9, after the number of confirmed coronavirus cases in Madrid doubled in one day, the President of the Autonomous Community of Madrid, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, ordered all schools in the capital to be closed for at least two weeks. The decision by the regional government caught the central government by surprise and effectively forced it to act.

    • March 10. Spanish Health Minister Salvador Illa, a Catalan philosophy major with no experience in medicine, said: “Today’s situation may be different from yesterday’s, it is changing, and this will continue to be so until we overcome this situation.”

    • March 11. The Spanish government acknowledged that it knew on March 8, before the feminist rallies took place, that the coronavirus outbreak in Madrid was out of control.

    • March 12. Prime Minister Sánchez, defending himself against criticism that he allowed the marches to go ahead, said that his government was responding to the “dynamic” situation of the coronavirus by “adapting” to the “hourly” recommendations of scientific experts.

    • March 14. The central government announced a nationwide state of emergency that effectively placed 46 million people in lockdown for at least 15 days. All non-essential travel has been prohibited and people are confined to their homes except in cases of emergency or to purchase food or medicine. All schools and universities in the country are closed.

    • March 29. The lockdown, the strictest in all of Europe, was extended until April 11.

    The lawsuit has been forwarded to the Spanish Supreme Court due to the prime minister’s immunity.

    Article 404 of the Penal Code establishes a penalty of between nine to 15 years of disqualification for public office for public officials convicted of the crime of prevarication.

    Víctor Valladares, a Madrid-based lawyer who is leading the lawsuit, said:

    “The result of the calls for these demonstrations and their direct approval by government delegations and by the inaction of the central government chaired by the accused, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, could not be more antagonistic to what the EU indicated in its report. Why was not an order issued to prevent any type of mass event?”

    Meanwhile, the Association of Doctors and Medics of Madrid (AMYTS) and the Confederation of Medical Trade Unions (CESM) also filed lawsuits against the government. The complaint demands that the federal and local governments provide hospitals in Madrid with masks, protective glasses and waste containers within 24 hours.

    The Spanish blogger Elentir, who operates the blog Contando Estrelas, a politically astute website that is essential to understanding contemporary Spanish politics, wrote:

    “As we found out, 16 days late, the first death from coronavirus had occurred in Spain on February 13. Faced with the risk that the massive feminist mobilizations on Sunday, March 8 could be cancelled, Fernando Simón commented: ‘We have no specific recommendation on the suspension of the rally on March 8.’

    “On March 9, one day after the feminist marches, Health Minister Salvador Illa expressly recommend that all people with chronic diseases or multiple pathologies do not leave their homes except for emergencies…. He said this immediately after the feminist rallies held on March 8.

    “Honestly, it seems to me a joke that the government has waited until today, clearly for political reasons, to make this announcement. The Socialist-Communist government has once again put its political interests above the common good. This gross negligence should lead to resignations.”

    Criticism of the Spanish government’s handling of the coronavirus crisis has also come from members of the Socialist Party itself. On March 22, Juan Luis Cebrián, a co-founder of the newspaper El País, a notorious mouthpiece of the Socialist Party, wrote:

    “The crocodile tears of so many political leaders who claim that no one could have imagined such a thing such as the coronavirus do not make any sense. There were not only those who imagined it: they foresaw it, and they seriously warned about it. There has undoubtedly been negligence on the part of the various health ministers and their bosses, and in France three doctors have already filed a complaint against the government for this reason. The consequence is that most Western nations today are overwhelmed in their abilities to fight the epidemic. They reacted late and erroneously. Lacking is: hospital beds, medical personnel, respirators and transparency in official information.

    “On February 24, WHO officially declared the probability that we would be faced with a pandemic. Despite this and knowing the magnitude of the threat, which has already been fully realized in several countries, hardly any measures were taken in most of the potential scenarios for the spread of the virus. In the case of Spain, attendance at gigantic demonstrations was encouraged, the holding of massive popular festivals was promoted, urgent funding for research was delayed, the threat was minimized, and even the official still in charge today of the scientific recommendations dared to say between smiles that there was no risk to the population.

    “This is not the time to open a debate on the subject, but it is legitimate to assume that in addition to political responsibilities, citizens… will have the right to demand legal redress if there is guilty negligence.”

    Spain is one of the European countries most effected by the virus: As of March 29, more than 80,000 people had been diagnosed with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and more than 6,500 had died as a result. The actual number of people infected may be ten times higher due to the lack of testing of asymptomatic cases. As the pandemic runs its course, Spain is on track soon to overtake Italy as Europe’s hardest-hit country.


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 03/31/2020 – 02:00

  • China Shuts Down All Cinemas, As Scientists Fear Second Coronavirus Wave 
    China Shuts Down All Cinemas, As Scientists Fear Second Coronavirus Wave 

    China spent most of March attempting to normalize its economy after several months of virus-related shutdowns. There were reports of retail stores opening, people going outside, virus cases declining, factories restarting, and even movie theaters reopening. 

    The Hollywood Reporter noted that the government gave nearly 600 movie theaters across China the green light for phased reopening in the third week of March. Then by March 27, Beijing’s Film Bureau requested that all theaters go into lockdown. 

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    “This second closure will not be a one or two-week issue,” an executive at a major exhibition company told The Hollywood Reporter. “They are going to be even more cautious when they attempt to reopen again—and this will set us back a long time.”

    The Chinese government did not explicitly cite the reason for the latest theater closings. Still, scientists are now warning that a second coronavirus wave could be arriving by the end of April: 

    “It’s time to relax the lockdown, but we need to be alert for a potential second wave of infections,” says Ben Cowling, an epidemiologist at the University of Hong Kong.

    Cowling warned that a second wave of the fast-spreading virus could hit China by the end of April. 

    China’s large network of 70,000 movie screens were all shuttered in January because of the COVID-19 outbreak that started in December and has since infected 741,000 people globally and killed 35,114. 

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    Many Chinese theaters were closed on the weekend of the Chinese New Year, which is the most significant moviegoing time of the year. Box office sales in the country for the first two months were down $2 billion over the same period last year. 

    How China deals with the second round of the virus outbreak remains to be seen. If China delays normalcy and extends the quarantines of its citizens, it could damage movie theater chains, Hollywood studios, and the entire global film industry. This also comes as Europe and the US have shut down movie theaters, further amplifying the stress for the industry. 

    Major movie productions across the world have put filming on hold through spring. Warner Bros. delayed Wonder Woman 1984 from its June debut to mid-August, which suggests US theaters will be dormant through the summer months. 


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 03/31/2020 – 01:00

  • COVID-19 Derangement Syndrome: A World Gone Mad
    COVID-19 Derangement Syndrome: A World Gone Mad

    Authored by Percy Carlton for the Saker Blog,

    The whole world has gone mad with what I call Covid-19 Derangement Syndrome (CDS).

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    I define it as an acute onset of paranoia in otherwise normal people in response to the Covid-19 Corona Virus pandemic. The infection is particularly prevalent among the media and the government officials of the world.

    Human beings fear what they do not understand and that fear causes them to behave in irrational and destructive ways. The current Covid-19 pandemic is a perfect example of that. I don’t need to describe the paranoia and economic destruction to you because you can see it with your own two eyes everywhere you look. Both the media and the world’s governments are fueling the panic – the media with their hysterical 24/7 coverage and the governments with their draconian police state actions.

    I feel like the man in the following cartoon.

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    I am doomed to helplessly stand by and watch the entire world commit economic suicide for no good reason. At first glance this may seem like a shocking and callous statement but do not mistake this as support for the view that the government should stand back and let the private sector take care of the problem. I have no problem with a strong authoritarian central government response as long as it is reasonable and wise. The current government response is neither.

    Do Nothing VS Shut Everything Down

    The current debate about what governments should do seems to be limited to two options: Do nothing and let the virus run its course or use authoritarian methods to quarantine and restrict the movement of citizens within and across state and national borders. The former will result in many people unnecessarily dying and the latter will save lives but is already resulting in a catastrophic worldwide economic collapse with repercussions that will last for years. It is very narrow thinking to think that those are the only two options that exist. There is always another way. Wouldn’t it be great if we could find a solution to the COVID-19 virus problem that would save lives and not result in a worldwide economic Armageddon? Such a solution exists and I will lay it out for you in this article.

    First let’s define the problem: A highly contagious virus is spreading around the globe and killing people. Governments should be responsible for protecting their citizens so they must take action. But what actions should they take? That is an important question that must be carefully answered, but only after much research and consideration of all options. If we act rashly and arrive at the wrong answer people will die and/or lives will be destroyed by a global economic depression.

    Let’s set aside the fear and hysteria and calmly use the Scientific Method to solve our problem. But I must first make a digression about science.

    Three Kinds of Science

    Did you know there are three kinds of science? Most folks can’t tell the difference between them and are therefore easily misled. The first two are pseudoscience; the third is real science. There is a significant amount of overlap between the first two although they do have enough of the third mixed in to give them the appearance of credibility.

    1) Agenda based science – This type is practiced by people with an agenda. They are blinded by their presuppositions and it results in them twisting, distorting, and sometimes outright lying about their studies, experiments, and data. The people that practice this kind of science are not necessarily evil. They just sincerely but blindly believe something that “just ain’t so.” They think they are helping the world but are instead causing it much harm.

    2) Bought and paid for corporate science – This type is practiced by scientific mercenaries who shamelessly produce studies that support the goals of whoever is paying them. Many of these folks are downright evil in my opinion. Much of what passes as “science” these days is of this type.

    3) Real science – This type of scientist seeks the truth regardless of what it is. If the scientist has a presupposition they will quickly abandon it if their research does not support it. They will tirelessly search for, support and proclaim the truth even if it results in them being ostracized by the scientific community or persecuted by the government.

    The Scientific Method

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    Step One – Purpose – State the Problem

    We have already defined our current problem as a virus that is killing people all over the world, but we have not stated our purpose and objectives. Our main purpose and objectives should be to minimize loss of life and damage to the world economy. These objectives are both very important and are not mutually exclusive regardless of what our governments seem to think.

    Step Two – Research – Find Out About the Topic

    I’m not going to spend much time discussing something you can easily research on the internet. There are plenty of articles in scientific journals and on science websites. Here is one example: How does the new coronavirus compare with the flu? I suggest you conduct your own independent research instead of getting your information from the hysterical media or an armchair doctor.

    Although there are some important differences between the seasonal flu and Covid-19, there are enough similarities that I believe we can find a solution to the problem by applying general medical principles relating to viruses. The entire world did not shut down for the many local and worldwide viral outbreaks we have had in the past 20 years such as SARS, Ebola, Zika, MERS, H5N1 (bird) and H1N1 (swine). There was no need to shut it down for this one.

    We all know about the infection and death rates that vary widely around the world but you may not know why. Italy is pointed to by the alarmists as justification for the police state shutdown of entire states and countries so let’s take a closer look at it.

    The single largest factor that determines the mortality rate is the health of the person at the time they contract the virus. The symptoms are mild for the vast majority of healthy people that become infected. It is well established that the people with the greatest risk of death are those with a weakened or compromised immune system. The death rate increases exponentially with age precisely because of the decrease in immune function that accompanies the aging process. According to an Italian Government Study 99% of their Covid-19 fatalities were already sick and half were diagnosed with 3 or more diseases.

    Here are some excerpts from a Bloomberg article on the study:

    The median age of the infected is 63 but most of those who die are older. The average age of those who’ve died from the virus in Italy is 79.5. As of March 17, 17 people under 50 had died from the disease. All of Italy’s victims under 40 have been males with serious existing medical conditions.

    “While data released Tuesday point to a slowdown in the increase of cases, with a 12.6% rise, a separate study shows Italy could be underestimating the real number of cases by testing only patients presenting symptoms.”

    “According to the GIMBE Foundation, about 100,000 Italians have contracted the virus, daily Il Sole 24 Ore reported. That would bring back the country’s death rate closer to the global average of about 2%.”

    A huge factor that affects transmission rates is cultural customs. Getting the locals to alter their cultural customs at funerals is one of the four practices that flattened the Ebola epidemic curve in West Africa in 2013-2016. Italy has an aging population that has a cultural tradition of cheek kissing. Is it a great mystery why their death rate is so high?

    It is probable that the 2-3% global average of the death rate is wildly over inflated due a high false negative rate for the current tests. And what about the many thousands or maybe even millions of people who may have contracted the virus and were not tested because the symptoms were so mild? Several weeks ago a strange virus ran through my family and a number of my co-workers. We felt horrible for a few days but recovered quickly. My daughter got the worst symptoms but tested negative for the flu. How do we know that it was not Covid-19 or another corona virus? Some of the alarmists such as Imperial College London’s Neil Ferguson are now beginning to back off of their doom and gloom predictions. The phrase “Lies, damned lies and statistics” applies here. The infection rate and death percentage numbers are unreliable. The only statistic that is close to accurate is the number of deaths. Let’s focus our efforts on reducing that number.

    Sun Tzu, Firefighters, Preppers, and Floridians

    Let’s continue to gather information by getting some advice from Sun Tzu, firefighters, preppers, and Floridians. After that I will tie it all together for you so that it will make sense.

    Sun Tzu

    Sun Tzu famously said in The Art of War “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”

    The world’s governments are fighting a battle against an “enemy” (the Covid-19 virus) they do not understand. Neither do they understand “themselves,” which in this case I will consider to be the human body. This is a battle they will not win. They rushed into it blindly with little knowledge and preparation and the results so far are not pretty. The current battle should be over in a few months but the enemy will likely be back next year and/or the year after that. Will we know our enemy and know ourselves better before the next battle? I sincerely hope so.

    But is treating the Covid-19 virus like an enemy that needs to be destroyed at all costs the right approach?

    War on Covid-19

    The USA has been at war in one form or another since its inception. There have been countless shooting wars but there has also been The War On Drugs, The War On Cancer, The War On Poverty, The War On Terrorism, The War On Global Warming, etc. Have any of these wars resulted in the eradication of the object on which the war was declared? No. All of these “wars” are foolish and misguided attempts at eradicating something that you cannot eradicate. They will always be with us. We have wasted untold trillions of dollars on these wars and have very little to show for it. The results of the current “War On Covid-19” will not be much different. We need to take a different approach and stop blindly declaring war on something we do not understand.

    Trump and other politicians are using the language of war when speaking about their country’s efforts to “fight” Covid-19. That should make us very wary. When the USA declares war on anything we can expect several things to happen:

    • We will go deeper in debt

    • Vast amount of money will be wasted and given away to corrupt corporations

    • The US Constitution will be further trampled and more rights and freedoms will be taken away

    • The people will suffer

    • We will lose the war

    Firefighters

    I am a firefighter/paramedic for a large city in the State of Florida in the USA. Every time something bad happens firefighters are called to mitigate the situation. Heart attacks, Covid-19 patients, car wrecks, and hazardous material leaks/spills are among the situations we respond to, but for this example we will use fire. Firefighters do not treat fire as the enemy. We do not declare war on it and try to stamp out every single flame in our jurisdiction. We understand it to be a naturally occurring phenomenon that can be very destructive and deadly if it is allowed to grow out of control. We do not fear fire because we know it well and we know ourselves well. We do have a healthy respect for it because we frequently see the death and destruction it can cause. When the alarm sounds we calmly but aggressively go about mitigating the fire before it grows out of control and destroys both lives and property. We are well trained and well prepared with the best equipment and Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) money can buy. We have several different methods we can use to put out a fire but the simplest and most effective extinguishing agent is plain old cheap and abundant water. If a sufficient amount of water is applied to the fire in its earliest stages, it will be extinguished with minimal damage to the structure. But if we are called too late and the fire grows out of control before we arrive, the building may be completely destroyed.

    Firefighters also educate the public on fire safety. We teach them how to prevent fires and what to do if they occur. I will return to this analogy later but for now the general lesson from firefighters is that the key to mitigating a potentially life and property destroying fire is knowledge, training and equipment. This allows us to apply the right extinguishing agent early enough and in sufficient quantities to put out the fire before the building burns down.

    Preppers

    I am an amateur prepper, not the “doomsday” type. Maybe it’s because I took the Boy Scout motto “Be Prepared” seriously or maybe it’s because I love the Biblical story of Joseph saving “the world” from starvation due to famine. In any case, this practice of being prepared has served my family well. When the mob of unprepared citizens began cleaning out the stores recently there was not much I had to run out and buy. (Although I was regrettably almost out of toilet paper.) I already had a freezer full of meat and even a box of N95 masks. Preppers spend time thinking about different scenarios that could happen and then prepare for them. Some do it out of fear but most do it because we know these things will happen to some degree at some point and we want to lessen the impact of these events on our family. We do not want to be dependent on the government to save us. We want to be in the position to help other people and not be a burden on them.

    Floridians

    Floridians are accustomed to preparing for hurricanes. It is an annual occurrence. We don’t panic because we know the enemy well and it is usually not as bad as it could be. We have an advantage over the folks who live in the Tornado Belt because we have plenty of advance notice that the storm is coming. Preparing for the Covid-19 virus to hit looked and felt like it does when we are preparing for a hurricane. We know it is coming but we do not know exactly when and where it will strike or how bad it will be. We all go out at the same time right before the storm and buy the supplies we need to weather the storm and get us through the aftermath. It always results in the store shelves being cleaned out of certain items. Our advice to you is to emulate our calm manner of preparation but do not emulate our practice of waiting until the last moment to obtain the supplies we need. The best approach is to stock up before storm season arrives.

    Step 3 – Hypothesis – Predict the Outcome to the Problem

    The doomsday outcomes predicted by the hysterical media and our clueless government officials are fatally flawed due to linear thinking. This is particularly prevalent in the West because the Western mind thinks in a linear manner – they act as if the trend in motion will continue on in the same direction indefinitely. The trend always changes. It is the Creator’s way. Cycles are the very foundation on which the universe was built. It is how energy moves. All viral outbreaks peak and then subside. This one will not be any different. Because the primary transmission route appears to be aerosolized droplets suspended in the air due to talking, coughing, and sneezing, the infection rate will drop dramatically as the air becomes warmer and moister. Airborne viruses love cool and dry air. Towards the end of the article I will be offering my predictions and proposed solutions.

    Steps 4, 5, and 6

    The world is in the midst of a huge quarantine experiment right now that we have rushed into without adequately stating our purpose and researching our options. In the aftermath we will be analyzing the results and coming to conclusions. Like the aftermath to any other crisis such as 911, most of the official government analysis will be propagandized and used to further their political agendas. We will be deluged with pseudoscience, lies, damned lies and statistics. Truth seekers must use real science to sift through the B.S. and find the truth just like we had to do with 911. Let us hope that the people of the world do not fall for the propaganda and “give up essential liberty to purchase a little safety.” One of my favorite quotes is by Mark Twain: “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” The government officials of the world know a lot that “just ain’t so.” Unfortunately that “knowledge” is what they base their decisions on.

    The World in Turmoil

    The world is in fear driven turmoil right now because of the following reasons:

    • Ignorance: Our leaders are completely ignorant about how the human body works and are relying on guidance from a conventional medical system that is rife with agenda and corporate driven pseudoscience.

    • Poor or non-existent planning and training: This is self evident and seems to apply to most countries.

    • Narrow thinking: The response is the same all over the world – mass quarantines, isolation, and shutting down of commerce and travel. No country seems to be taking a different approach.

    • Incompletely defining the problem: No government seems to be giving any serious consideration to how they can minimize the economic damage that their solution to the problem is causing. Yes, many governments are throwing vast amounts of money at the problem by creating debt based money but does that ever really work?

    • Treating the Covid-19 pandemic like a war that needs to be waged instead of a recurring problem that needs to be properly mitigated with the right tools and approaches for the job: The USA’s war on Covid-19 will be about as successful as the USA’s War on Cancer has been.

    The Cure For Covid-19

    The cure for Covid-19 already exists so there is no need to look to the pharmaceutical industry to save us. It is your body’s own immune system. Instead of destroying the world economy in knee-jerk reactionary style maybe the world’s governments should be finding ways to improve the health of their citizens. We have already established that this virus kills the elderly and the immune compromised and has mild effects on the healthy. We should be focusing on the death rate, not the infection rate. Many people get sick with a virus a few times a year and the world economy doesn’t shut down.

    I could write an entire series of articles on ways you can improve your health and immune system to the point that the Covid-19 virus would be only a minor irritation to you but this is not the forum for that. But I will tell you about the closest thing we have to a “magic bullet” and how the Chinese are using it to mitigate the virus.

    After approving several studies of using intravenous vitamin C for the treatment of Covid-19, on March 1st the Chinese Journal of Infectious Diseases (which is hosted by the Shanghai Medical Association) pre-published the “Expert Consensus on Comprehensive Treatment of Coronavirus in Shanghai 2019.” Among its treatment recommendations was the following:

    “Prevention and treatment of cytokine storm: It is recommended to use large doses of vitamin C and unfractionated heparin. Large doses of vitamin C are injected intravenously at a dose of 100 to 200 mg / kg per day. The duration of continuous use is to significantly improve the oxygenation index.”

    China must be using it very extensively because in February they shipped 50 tons of it to Hubei Province, the capital city of which is Wuhan. No wonder turned things around so quickly at the epicenter of the outbreak.

    Vitamin C: The Magic Bullet for Inflammation

    Inflammation is the term we use to describe the body’s immune system response to injury or a foreign invader such as a virus or bad bacteria. It is at the root of all medical problems and diseases. When the immune system is overwhelmed, inflammation rages out of control. In the case of Covid-19 there is an overwhelming amount of inflammation in the lungs that leads to pneumonia, sepsis and death if the inflammatory fires are not quenched. This normally only happens in people with compromised immune systems. An optimally functioning immune system in a healthy person will easily mitigate the virus before it progresses to pneumonia. There are exceptions of course, but they are few.

    We now return to my firefighter analogy. We can easily extinguish a fire if we arrive on scene while it is still in its incipient stage. A small booster line or even a 2.5 gallon fire extinguisher is all that is needed. If our response is delayed the fire will grow exponentially to the point that is not safe to enter the building. We then apply very large streams of water from the outside and do not enter the building until after the majority of the flames have been extinguished. The sooner we apply the water the less of it that is required to do the job. If we do not apply large streams of water in the late stages of a fire the building will be lost.

    Vitamin C works the same way as water in our firefighter analogy. If enough oral vitamin C is taken at an early enough stage of an illness, the inflammation will be quenched and will never get to the exponential growth phase. The longer you wait to take it the more you will need to quench the inflammatory fire growing inside of you. The key to success is to take it at the first sign of symptoms. One you get to the exponential growth phase intravenous vitamin C is needed and it will be effective in a very large percentage of cases. If it is not applied, the result is death in a large percentage of cases.

    Doctors in China and even the USA are using intravenous vitamin C on Covid-19 patients with great success. Doctors and researchers all over the world have known for decades about the incredible power of intravenous vitamin C to quench the raging fires of inflammation.

    Sepsis is a condition that can be compared to the pneumonia that is killing the immune compromised elderly Covid-19 patients. They are both acute and massive inflammatory responses due to infection. An observational study published in The Lancet found that 100% of the early Covid-19 patients that died in Wuhan had sepsis. And not surprisingly most were older folks with health problems. Sepsis may be responsible for as many as 20% of deaths worldwide. It is one of the top killers of people that die in hospitals. One doctor in the USA has been using intravenous vitamin C in a treatment protocol that has reduced the death rate from sepsis by almost 5 fold – from 40% to 8.5%.

    Is It Really That Simple?

    Yes it is. “But Percy, then why aren’t governments around the world endorsing it and using it?” That is an almost irrelevant question. Does the scientific evidence and case studies prove it or not? I can give you a very conclusive answer for the USA. We have a corrupt and powerful pharmaceutical industry that exerts a massive amount of influence on our government. They use that power and influence to squash and suppress any medical treatment that cannot be patented and used to make obscene amounts of profit. Vitamin C cannot be patented so therefore it will not be widely used or studied. If it is not being used in your country then maybe your medical system has been corrupted or misled by the West. China is using it extensively, as well as a few renegade doctors in countries all over the world. If you look for them you will find them.

    Extraordinary Claims Require Extraordinary Evidence

    I do not subscribe to this view because I believe that claims that can be proved or disproved by science all require the same amount of evidence. What is extraordinary to one may be ordinary to another. A good example is 911. I do not consider it to be an extraordinary claim to say that two planes did not bring down three buildings on 9/11/2001, particularly Building 7. The laws of physics prove it beyond a reasonable doubt. But to the vast majority of the American public that is too fantastic of a claim to even warrant checking into. So if you summarily dismiss my claims without serious investigation it will be similar to someone refusing to watch the excellent documentary 911: Explosive Evidence- Experts Speak Out by Architects and Engineers For 911 Truth because it sounds too fantastic to be true. Here are some links to get you started if you would like to conduct your own research. I highly recommend that you do so.

    Things That Make You Go Hmmmmm

    I would be remiss if I did not touch upon the more bizarre aspects of this crisis. I will list a few. This is certainly not an exhaustive list and I have only linked to the things that are facts. No conspiracy theory links here.

    I am attempting to apply Occam’s Razor to this crisis but I must admit that the longer this inexplicable and destructive behavior by governments goes on the more difficult it is for me to do so. Are all these things (and more) just amazing coincidences? I will let the reader decide.

    Never Let A Good Crisis Go To Waste

    When a “crisis” comes along, whether false flag or real, Western leaders always use it as an excuse to pass liberty destroying legislation that would be otherwise politically untenable. In the USA, 911 gave us the Patriot Act, TSA, DHS, etc. I fully expect the Covid-19 pandemic to bring us similar legislation such as the Model State Emergency Health Powers Act. Power grabs are being suggested and attempted all over the world. Here are a few headlines:

    I could fill up a page with headlines such as these. It is a very disturbing trend.

    Where We Go From Here

    I see myself as a realist, not an optimist or a pessimist. My study of history, economics, and politics tells me that the future looks grim. Much of the world is suffering under corrupt and ignorant leaders who cannot possibly successfully lead us out of this mess, particularly in the Western world. The world’s interconnected and dollar dominated financial system is a house of cards that has been waiting on the right flap of a butterfly’s wings to set off a series of events that will cause it to come tumbling down. We are past the point of no return. An economic recession or depression will be ushered in by the response to the Covid-19 virus, not the Covid-19 virus itself. The government response to a crisis always sets up the next crisis. Capital flight to the dollar has already begun en mass. By next year or the year after there will be loan defaults that will set off a worldwide contagion that will make 2008 look like a walk in the park. The Eurozone will implode first. The Covid-19 corona virus will mutate and be back next year and/or the year after that. Lord help us if our leaders shut the world down again next year. China will survive and be the beneficiary of the West’s self destruction. They will suffer, but not nearly as much as the West. The USA dominated Anglo-Zionist Empire will be largely over within 20 years, maybe much sooner. The new financial capital of the world will be China.

    Conclusion 1 – What Governments Should Do

    After we are on the downside of the infection bell curve governments should begin planning for the next round of this. Instead of being reactive they should be proactive. The primary focus should be to educate their citizens on how to be healthy. Healthy people have little to worry about from Covid-19 or most any other virus. Healthy people do not clog the healthcare system; unhealthy people do. They should also educate their citizens on ways they can support their immune systems and encourage them to do so quickly in the incipient stages of an illness. This will drastically reduce the strain of sick people on overburdened healthcare systems. That leaves only the worst cases to deal with. For these they should follow China’s lead and develop a treatment protocol that incorporates intravenous vitamin C to quench the inflammatory fire in the lungs that leads to death.

    The mass quarantines of entire cities, states, and countries must stop. It is not stopping the spread and it is destroying the world economy in the process. If they want to quarantine a population it should be the population with the greatest risk of death – the elderly.

    None of this will happen of course. When their approach doesn’t work, Western leaders usually double down on it hoping for a different result. Hopefully there will be some renegade local governments that will defy the unconstitutional decrees of their central government – like what many state governments are doing to the federal government in the USA regarding cannabis laws.

    Conclusion 2 – What You Can Do

    Since I am not under any illusions that this article will be read and considered by any person in power anywhere on the planet, the advice that follows is the reason I wrote this article. There is little chance that any of our overlords will be cured of the Covid-19 Derangement Syndrome that infects them. But, dear reader, if you are living in fear and hiding in your house or apartment and are afraid of contracting the Covid-19 virus there is hope for you. The antidote for fear is knowledge, training and preparation.

    I do not fear fire because I understand it and I am well trained and equipped to extinguish a fire at any stage of development. I always strive to extinguish the fire in its incipient stage before it grows out of control.

    I do not fear any virus because I understand them and I understand how my body uses its immune system to defend me from them. If I begin to get sick I know many natural methods to ramp up my immune system’s ability to fight off any infection whether viral or bacterial.

    If you are not healthy, begin taking steps to correct that now. This virus will be back, and when it does you want your immune system to be functioning at a high level. Take advantage of this “lockdown” time and gain some knowledge. Instead of watching the 24/7 news cycle repeated over and over again (which can rapidly lead to depression and a loss of hope) redeem the time and study how you can change your diet and lifestyle and get in excellent health. After the current madness subsides and the stores are restocked, begin stocking up on the supplies you will need for the next round of this. Become self sufficient and prepared for any emergency. Whatever you do, do not sit back and wait for the government or pharmaceutical industry to save you.

    If you do these things you can join me as I watch in stunned amazement the next time the whole world panics due to a pandemic. You will also be in a position to guide and assist your loved ones and neighbors. An economic storm and additional pandemic storms are coming and like minded people around the world need to pull together and help each other when they hit.

    *  *  *

    Percy Carlton is a soon to be retired firefighter/paramedic in a large city in the State of Florida in the USA. He has relentlessly studied and pursued truth in the areas of health, economics and geopolitics for the past 10 years.


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 03/31/2020 – 00:05

  • "Coincidence?" – Japanese Questioning Sudden Surge In Tokyo Infections Following Olympics Delay Decision
    “Coincidence?” – Japanese Questioning Sudden Surge In Tokyo Infections Following Olympics Delay Decision

    As we’ve previously noted, every four decades, something jinxes the Olympics. Japanese officials spent the last several months downplaying the virus outbreak, but as soon as the Games were delayed on March 23, virus cases in Tokyo spiked, with possible lockdowns looming, reported AP News

    Former government officials have raised their eyebrows of just how COVID-19 cases were low before the postponement, to now on an exponential curve, as some have suggested there was a coverup by the government to artificially suppress cases to make it appear that the Games would go on. 

    “In order to make the impression that the city was taking control of the coronavirus, Tokyo avoided making strict requests and made the number of patients look smaller,” former Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama said in a tweet.

    “The coronavirus has spread while they waited. (For Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike) it was Olympics first, not Tokyo’s residents.”

    Several weeks ago, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said the Japanese government “would overcome the spread of the infection and host the Olympics without a problem.” Abe’s attitude towards the outbreak dramatically changed over the weekend when he said: 

    “Once infections overshoot, our strategy … will instantly fall apart,” Abe warned on Saturday. “Under the current situation, we are just barely holding up. A state of emergency is not needed just yet, but that Japan could at any time face a situation as bad as in the United States or Europe.”

    Abe had a phone call with International Olympic Committee (IOC), President Thomas Bach, last Tuesday, AP notes. That was the moment when the Games were decided to be postponed until 2021. 

    Then on Wednesday, one day after the postponement, Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike advised residents to stay home and practice social distancing until mid-April, signaling that possible lockdowns could be ahead to flatten the pandemic curve. 

    Confirmed cases in the country have surged since the postponement of the Games — with an exponential rise expected through April. 

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    Japan COVID-19 Confirmed cases

    “Is this just a coincidence?” Maiko Tajima, an opposition lawmaker from the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, said during a parliamentary session last Wednesday, citing Tokyo’s sudden spike in cases. 

    Health Minister Katsunobu Kato said there is no correlation between the surge in cases and the Olympic postponement. 

    Abe has since dismissed that Japan artificially suppressed cases by limiting tests and defined COVID-19 deaths as other pneumonia fatalities to boost the prospects that the Games must go on: 

    “I’m aware that some people suspect Japan is hiding the numbers, but I believe that’s not true,” he said. “If there is a coverup, it will show up in the number of deaths.”

    Abe also said the government had secured enough hospital beds and ventilators to prepare for a worst-case. 

    “We fear a situation where severe patients start dying when the medical system collapses, and we must prevent that situation,” Kato told NHK on Sunday.

    And why would Abe’s government allegedly coverup the virus outbreak to make it appear that containment was almost certain? Well, as we explained on March 11, Japan and some mega-corporations would lose billions of dollars if the Games were delayed or canceled. So, another example of profits over human health? 


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 03/30/2020 – 23:45

  • Mike Krieger: "Question Everything!"
    Mike Krieger: “Question Everything!”

    Authored by Michael Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

    Crises, like pandemics, don’t break things in and of themselves; they show you what’s already broken.

    – Patrick Wyman

    Big macro crises in any form are scary, massively disruptive, and in some cases, literally deadly. This is why governments and entrenched institutions always see such events as opportunities to further consolidate wealth and power.

    The current global pandemic is no exception, as I detailed in last week’s piece: Power Grab. While it’s necessary to be aware of this reality — and to push back against it wherever possible — it’s equally important to recognize there’s a silver lining to all of this.

    The paradigm we live under depends on us not thinking too hard about how power functions. It relies on us being so busy with the basics of survival, or distracted by superficial consumerism and endless entertainment, to contemplate how the system actually works. This method of social control has been wildly successful throughout my lifetime, but what’s interesting about moments of global crises is the mask is forced off for a period. In a desperate scramble to marshal all of the corporate-imperial state’s resources to save the interests of the oligarchy, we’re shown in full color who really matters and who doesn’t.

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    You do not matter. The imperial state doesn’t care about you. Oligarchs don’t care about you. Mega corporations don’t care about you. This truth is cleverly hidden from much of the public during “normal” times when the machine is humming along as intended, but it’s far more in your face during a crisis period. It’s much harder to hide the truth when the world gets turned upside down.

    Aside from the grotesque spectacle of the U.S. government funneling all of its resources toward propping up Wall Street and large corporations, this crisis has exposed the the rot and dysfunction in another meaningful way. Our health experts, ostensibly there to help the public navigate exactly this sort of event, have failed us in spectacular fashion.

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    This is what political actors masquerading as experts do in a crisis. They either give bad advice, or intentionally mislead the public to hide the fact the U.S. simply doesn’t have adequate mask supply and sent its manufacturing capacity overseas. Which brings up an important topic worthy of further discussion: the crucial distinction between experts and expertise.

    An “expert” in our society is someone with expertise in a particular field who’s been propped up by either the media, government or both as an authoritative source to listen to on a particular topic. This individual’s elevated stature is artificially created by an external source that’s selected this particular person as someone you should listen to. It tends to be a political appointment. This person has been chosen, not only because he or she has expertise (many others also do), but due to other attributes that appeal to those who’ve decided to prop them up. Anyone who’s worked in corporate America knows full well that many of those promoted to middle management, or higher, often end up there not because they’re particularly skilled, but because they’re good at playing politics and know the right ass to kiss. The same is true in all large organizations, and government is no exception.

    In the days before the internet and social media, the public might know that government/media experts were behaving dishonestly, but didn’t have realtime access to competitive nonpolitical voices with equal or superior expertise to the government experts. What many of us discovered during this pandemic is people with expertise engaging publicly on Twitter provided far better and more timely advice than the government/media experts. This makes perfect sense because these people tend to not be political actors, but rather humans attempting to share information in an honest and selfless manner. If we’ve learned anything in the 21st century, it’s that actual track records don’t matter when it comes to media and government positions. In fact, the more catastrophically wrong you are in the interests of oligarchy, the more likely you are to be promoted and elevated.

    Fortunately, I entered this crisis with a well established distrust of mass media and government, and therefore knew better than to look toward their experts for any useful guidance. Rather, I sought out the opinions of various nonpolitical individuals with relevant expertise who helped me see things for how they were very early on. Others have not been as lucky, but will no doubt emerge from this crisis with a deep distrust of established institutions and individuals, and with very good reason.

    We’ve just witnessed a catastrophic failure of the centralized state in America, and the blowback will resonate within the larger culture for years if not decades. Similar to how many people were shaken to their core during the financial crisis a decade ago, I think this pandemic event will lead to an even larger wave of people awakening to how completely rotten, pernicious and corrupt the whole system is. Once you see that reality in all its glory, you can’t unsee it.

    Of course, recognizing how broken things are isn’t enough. We need to have a thoughtful conversation about what we have too much of versus what we need. If we’re going to change the world, we need a vision. I have some thoughts on the matter.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Nothing is set in stone. The world as it is today is not some divine eternal paradigm beyond reproach. Humans shape the world through their choices, actions and mentality.

    For additional thoughts on that and much more, check out my recent interview with Tales From the Crypt.

    *  *  *

    Liberty Blitzkrieg is an ad-free website. If you enjoyed this post and my work in general, visit the Support Page where you can donate and contribute to my efforts.


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 03/30/2020 – 23:25

  • "A Multitrillion Dollar Helicopter Credit Drop": How The Fed Turned $454 Billion Into $4.5 Trillion
    “A Multitrillion Dollar Helicopter Credit Drop”: How The Fed Turned $454 Billion Into $4.5 Trillion

    Last Friday, to bipartisan cheers – and one sole, rational dissenter who was promptly silenced after asking “if $6 trillion is fine, why not $350 trillion” – Trump signed into law a $2.2 trillion corporate, hedge fund and bank bailout fiscal spending package, which quickly became the main topic of the current new cycle. What was not at all discussed, purposefully so due to the complexity of the underlying math, is that in parallel to the Treasury’s 2 trillion package, the Fed received a green light to lend up to $4.5 trillion in new credit (which is where Kudlow’s misconstrued “$6 trillion stimulus” comment came from).

    And as usually happens with matters Fed related, the fact that the Fed received permission from the Treasury to “stimulate” by more than twice the full amount of the CARES act, flew right over America’s head. Which, if to be expected, is lamentable, because by giving the Fed a green light to inject money at will, the US government officially launched helicopter money.

    Or rather, “helicopter credit” as Wrightson ICAP chief economist Lou Crandall put it, and as Bloomberg further refined it, “a Multitrillion Dollar Helicopter Credit Drop.”

    So how do we get to $4.5 trillion? Here’s how it happened.

    The roles of the Treasury Department and Federal Reserve are different in a bailout. The Treasury Department is part of the Executive Branch. It receives its funding from taxpayers. It is accountable to Congress and to the President. It just received $454 billion in the CARES Act. The Federal Reserve, in contrast, is a private, bank-owned agency which pretends to operate on behalf of the people but in reality makes sure the financial system and the commercial banks that dominate are viable and profitable (if they aren’t they are bailed out).

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    Source: Bank of England

    As a result, the Fed’s members and private owners are banking institutions who keep massive reserves on deposit at the Fed. The Federal Reserve has many roles in the economy, but none of them is to take on credit risk. So how do you get the Fed to establish a “loan” facility, as contemplated in the CARES Act, if it will not take on credit risk? And not just any loan but $4.5 trillion in loans?

    This tsunami of credit (the helicopter comes next… and last) is made possible by the $454 billion set aside in the aid package for Treasury to backstop lending by the Fed. The Treasury’s contribution, as Tom Barrack explained recently, you can think of as “equity” — that is, Treasury will stand in a “first loss” position on every loan made to corporate America.

    The Fed will contribute the “leverage” — the money that will help make loans using the Treasury’s equity and be levered 10-to-1. Such leverage assumes no more than 10% capital losses (on “AAA-rated” paper), as the Fed is not allowed to be impaired. Of course, in a real crash the losses will be far greater but we’ll cross that particular bailout of the bailout when we get to it. The loan fund, now levered up ten-fold thanks to the Fed’s own $4.1 trillion, will then make loans to businesses.

    “Effectively one dollar of loss absorption of backstop from Treasury is enough to support $10 worth of loans.” Fed Chair Powell said in in a rare nationally-televised interview last Thursday morning. “When it comes to this lending we’re not going to run out of ammunition” and he is right – the Fed can apply any leverage it wants; after all the value of the collateral it lends against is whatever the Fed decides!

    Visually, the magic of the Fed’s 10x leverage looks as follows:

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    Source: Tom Barrack

    The overall size of the Fed-Treasury loan fund depends on how much Fed money will be supplied for every dollar of “equity” the Treasury contributes.

    In theory, the answer is a function of what is called the “credit box.” If the loan program makes loans only to investment grade companies (those rated BBB or higher), the Fed will contribute more capital than if the loan program makes loans to companies with lower credit ratings or no ratings at all. In other existing Fed loan programs, the Fed supplies about $9 for every $1 of Treasury capital, but in those programs the loans are secured by extremely high-quality collateral (often AAA).

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    Source: Tom Barrack

    In practice, the Fed – which can “print” an infinite amount of dollars in exchange for any “collateral” including baseball cards, donkey turds, used condoms or oxygen – can lever up 20x, 50x, even 100x or more with zero regard for the underlying collateral.

    And the real kicker is that what and how the Fed decides on what leverage to apply, how to value the collateral, and which companies to bailout (and which to let fail), is now a secret. That’s because the Senate-approved stimulus bill repeals the sunshine law for the Fed’s meetings until the President says the coronavirus threat is over or the end of the year (spoiler alert: the coronavirus threat will never be over). That could make any FOIA lawsuits to disclose details of what’s is taking place in Fed meeting a non-starter since it has been codified in a federal law, to wit:

    SEC. 4009. TEMPORARY GOVERNMENT IN THE SUNSHINE ACT RELIEF. (a) IN GENERAL.—Except as provided in subsection 8 (b), notwithstanding any other provision of law, if the Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System determines, in writing, that unusual and exigent circumstances exist, the Board may conduct meetings without regard to the requirements of section 552b of title 5, United States Code, during the period beginning on the date of enactment of this Act and ending on the earlier of— (1) the date on which the national emergency concerning the novel coronavirus disease (COVID–19) outbreak declared by the President on March 13, 2020 under the National Emergencies Act (50 20 U.S.C. 1601 et seq.) terminates; or (2) December 31, 2020.

    So what does all this mean? Three things:

    1. the US population will go in debt to the tune of at least $454BN to pre-fund the Treasury’s “first-loss” equity tranche which will be then handed over to the Fed as seed capital. That’s in addition to the trillions in additional debt the Treasury will incur to fund the fiscal stimulus and whatever subsequent programs it launches.
    2. the Fed will then apply 10x – or much more – leverage to make any collateral it makes loans against “money good”, bailing out any and all asset holders while triggering the endgame of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency, because without even a veiled pretense of scarcity, the dollar literally becomes less valuable than toilet paper. 
    3. As JPM’s chief economist Michael Feroli put it, “The Fed has effectively shifted from lender of last resort for banks to a commercial banker of last resort for the broader economy.”

    And the punchline: this mechanism which is now codified by law and which grants the Fed literally unlimited power to bailout anything and anyone, and which marks the beginning of the end for the US dollar, was delivered by America’s politicians with pride:

    “Very quickly we hope to stand up a very broad based lending facility that could be leveraged up to $2 or $3 trillion,” Senator Pat Toomey told reporters Wednesday. “We’re hoping it’s a mechanism to keep businesses alive for a few weeks or months until our economy can resume.”

    And if it can’t resume in a “few weeks or months”, the mechanism will keep running until the Fed can – and will – nationalize everything.

    So congratulations America, you were just bought by a group of anonymous bankers with your own elected politicians making it possible. The price? $1,200 per person for a month or two.


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 03/30/2020 – 22:57

  • Anatomy Of The $2 Trillion COVID-19 Stimulus Bill
    Anatomy Of The $2 Trillion COVID-19 Stimulus Bill

    Submitted by Visual Capitalist,

    The unprecedented response to the COVID-19 pandemic has prioritized keeping people apart to slow the spread of the virus. While measures such as business closures and travel restrictions are effective at fighting a pandemic, they also have a dramatic impact on the economy.

    To help right the ship, the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act — also known as the CARES Act — was passed by U.S. lawmakers last week with little fanfare. The act became the largest economic stimulus bill in modern history, more than doubling the stimulus act passed in 2009 during the Financial Crisis.

    Today’s Sankey diagram is a visual representation of where the $2 trillion will be spent.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–> Broadly speaking, there are five components to the COVID-19 stimulus bill:

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Although the COVID-19 stimulus bill is incredibly complex, here are some of the most important parts to be aware of.

    Funds for Individuals

    Amount: $603.7 billion – 30% of total CARES Act

    In order to stimulate the sputtering economy quickly, the U.S. government will deploy “helicopter money” — direct cash payments to individuals and families.

    The centerpiece of this plan is a $1,200 direct payment for those earning up to $75,000 per year. For higher earners, payment amounts will phase out, ending altogether at the $99,000 income level. Families will also receive $500 per child.

    There are three other key things to know about this portion of the stimulus funds:

    1. There will be a temporary suspension for any student loan held by the federal government. This means no payments required and no interest accrued until the end of September, 2020.
    2. Borrowers with federally backed loans can request forbearance on mortgage payments for up to six months.
    3. There will be an expansion of unemployment benefits, including a four-month enhancement of benefits. This plan includes freelancers, workers in the gig economy, and furloughed employees.

    Big Business

    Amount: $500.0 billion – 25% of total CARES Act

    This component of the package is aimed at stabilizing big businesses in hard-hit sectors.

    The most obvious industry to receive support will be the airlines. About $58 billion has been earmarked for commercial and cargo airlines, as well as airline contractors. Perhaps in response to recent criticism of the industry, companies receiving stimulus money will be barred from engaging in stock buybacks for the term of the loan plus one year.

    One interesting pathway highlighted by today’s Sankey diagram is the $17 billion allocated to “maintaining national security”. While this provision doesn’t mention any specific company by name, the primary recipient is believed to be Boeing.

    The bill also indicates that an inspector general will oversee the recovery process, along with a special committee.

    Small Business

    Amount: $377.0 billion – 19% of total CARES Act

    To ease the strain on businesses around the country, the Small Business Administration (SBA) will be given $350 billion to provide loans of up to $10 million to qualifying organizations. These funds can be used for mission critical activities, such as paying rent or keeping employees on the payroll during COVID-19 closures.

    As well, the bill sets aside $10 billion in grants for small businesses that need help covering short-term operating costs.

    State and Local Governments

    Amount: $340.0 billion – 17% of total CARES Act

    The biggest portion of funds going to local and state governments is the $274 billion allocated towards direct COVID-19 response. The rest of the funds in this component will go to schools and child care services.

    Public and Health Services

    Amount: $179.5 billion – 9% of total CARES Act

    The biggest slice of this pie goes to healthcare providers, who will receive $100 billion in grants to help fight COVID-19. This was a major ask from groups representing the healthcare industry, as they look to make up the lost revenue caused by focusing on the outbreak — as opposed to performing elective surgeries and other procedures. There will also be a 20% increase in Medicare payments for treating patients with the virus.

    Money is also set aside for initiatives such as increasing the availability of ventilators and masks for the Strategic National Stockpile, as well as providing additional funding for the Center for Disease Control and expanding the reach of virtual doctors.

    Finally, beyond the healthcare-related funding, the CARES Act also addresses food security programs and a long list of educational and arts initiatives.


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 03/30/2020 – 22:45

  • Execs Scramble To Buy Spyware To Keep Tabs On 'Locked-Down' Employees
    Execs Scramble To Buy Spyware To Keep Tabs On ‘Locked-Down’ Employees

    Tens of millions of Americans have transitioned from their corporate desks to living room sofas in the last month as “shelter in place” government health orders have forced many to work at home amid the COVID-19 outbreak. Corporate executives, who once had unlimited control over employees, have lost much of it, and that is why they’re now panic buying spy software to monitor employees who work from home, reported Bloomberg

    Axos Financial Inc. told employees who are working from home that they’re monitoring every keystroke, logging every website, and taking screenshots of their desktops, in a bid to keep tabs on how productive they’re. In an internal email to employees, the company wrote that “disciplinary action” or “termination” is possible if slacking was seen. 

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    “We have seen individuals taking unfair advantage of flexible work arrangements,” Axos Financial CEO wrote in an internal email reviewed by Bloomberg. If daily tasks aren’t completed, workers “will be subject to disciplinary action, up to and including termination.”

    It’s not just corporations that are ushering in digital surveillance tools to monitor employees, but also we’ve noted that governments are utilizing mass surveillance to monitor social distancing and the health care system

    “Of course, digital surveillance has been used for years on office desktops, yet it seems a violation of privacy to a lot of workers when they’re required to have software on their computers that tracks their every move in their own homes.

    Employers justify going full Orwell by saying that monitoring curbs security breaches, which can be expensive and helps keep the wheels of commerce turning.

    With so many people working remotely because of the coronavirus, surveillance software is flying off the virtual shelves.” – Bloomberg.

    Brad Miller, CEO of surveillance-software maker InterGuard, said businesses are “scrambling” to purchase software that monitors the productivity of employees who are working from home. 

    Axos spokesman Gregory Frost released a statement to Bloomberg that said, “the enhanced monitoring of at-home employees we implemented will ensure that those members of our workforce who work from home will continue” to be productive during these challenging times.

    Along with InterGuard, software makers include Time Doctor, Teramind, VeriClock, innerActiv, ActivTrak, and Hubstaf have developed monitoring tools for corporations. 

    Stacy Hawkins, a professor at Rutgers Law School, said some employers are going to far in their attempt to track workers. 

    Some workers who have been subjected to extreme surveillance while working at home have vented their frustration on forums such as CodeAhoy.

    “I’ve heard from multiple people whose employers have asked them to stay logged into a video call all day while they work,” said Alison Green, founder of the workplace-advice website Ask a Manager. “In some cases, they’re told it’s so they can all talk throughout the day if questions come up, but in others, there’s no pretense that it’s for anything other than monitoring people to ensure they’re working.”

    The virus has been the perfect cover for corporate America to rollout massive spy surveillance technology to monitor employees. Simultaneously, the government is ushering in the surveillance state


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 03/30/2020 – 22:25

  • Unpacking China's Viral Propaganda War
    Unpacking China’s Viral Propaganda War

    Authored by Richard Bernstein via RealClearInvestigations (emphasis ours)

    China is waging a propaganda war against the coronavirus on several fronts. In addition to its well-documented efforts to deflect attention from its early suppression of information about the disease and to claim that it has among all nations now halted the scourge, it is also pushing an alternative explanation of its origins—namely that it didn’t start in Wuhan after all, but was a creation of a military biochemical lab in the United States and was brought to China by an American team that competed in the Military World Games in Wuhan last October.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    While that conspiracy theory was quickly noted and dismissed in much of the West, it is continuing and broadening all over social media in China – a country that strictly monitors what appears on its online platforms, regularly scrubbing it of what the authorities call “rumors.” But a lot of it, put on platforms that are banned in China, seems aimed outward, part of a concerted effort to convince the world that China, once the villain of the coronavirus story, is actually its hero, and that the real villain is America.

    Its effectiveness may provide a new illustration of how fake news, if repeated loudly and often enough, uses social media as a carrier to spread misinformation around the globe.

    Recently, for example, Global Times, an English-language mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party, called on the American government to release the medical records of all the members of the American team that competed in Wuhan, so as  “to end the conjecture about U.S. military personnel bringing Covid-19 to China.” In asking the United States to be “transparent,” the paper was giving credence to a claim at the heart of the conspiracy theory, that a 50-year-old bicycle racer named Maatje Benassi, a member of the American delegation, was “patient zero,” the first victim of the disease, which would mean that the virus was brought to China by the United States. This claim has been amplified across Twitter.

    Among the ironies in this is that the demand for transparency is coming from China, one of the most secretive and opaque regimes in history. Another is that the idea that Benassi is “patient zero” stems from an American conspiracy theorist named George Webb. In a Youtube video earlier this month, Webb advanced that notion, along with the theory that the virus was created, not in China, but at Fort Detrick in Maryland.

    It’s not the first time that China has given quasi-official sanction to the rewriting of the recent coronavirus past. The theory that the American army created the coronavirus has been propagated on Twitter, for example, by Zhao Lijian, a spokesman for China’s foreign ministry. What’s become clearer over time is the possible goal of China’s effort: to win respectful treatment for its evidence-free claim, to present the question of the virus’s origins as undecided, something urgently requiring further research and disclosure.

    Chinese websites are carrying numerous videos detailing what one of those sites, dubbed Sharp Arrow Military News, calls “America’s ugly truth.” Slickly produced and professionally narrated, the videos list various supposedly incriminating facts about American behavior and spin them into a tale of a dark anti-China plot — for example, that as late as February President Trump seemed unconcerned about the spread of the virus to the United States. 

    One video making the rounds recently provides one of the more elaborate presentations of the theory to date. It’s not entirely clear who created it, or how broadly it is circulating in China or how great its influence is. A brief, unscientific survey of people inside China, mostly well-educated middle-class city dwellers, turned up nobody who actually believed its claims.

    But the video is professionally done, with a Chinese-language narrator speaking with very much the style and intonation of official Chinese news broadcasts. It has the look and format of other videos that have been put out by a Chinese army propaganda unit in Wuhan, though it could not be confirmed whether this new video was produced in this way or not.

    We have to find patient zero, the first coronavirus case,” the narrator says at the beginning of what appears to be a piece of investigative journalism, a supposedly sincere and objective effort at sifting through the facts to arrive at “the truth” of the virus’s origins. “At the beginning, everybody thought it came from a seafood market in Wuhan, but now it appears maybe not,” the narrator says, going on to advance the theory that the video will explore: “Maybe it’s related to the Wuhan military competition.

    In support of that notion, the narrator – according to RealClearInvestigations’ translation – reminds viewers that the 2019 World Military Games were held in Wuhan in October last year, with participation by some 10,000 athletes from more than 100 countries, including the American team with nearly 300 athletes and staff. The U.S., which, the narrator says, “has very strong abilities,” did poorly in the competition, and indeed, the American team won just eight medals, none of them gold, compared to China’s 239.

    Isn’t this a strange thing? the narrator goes on to say, putting the poor American performance into a sinister light and using it to support the theory that the coronavirus must have originated in the U.S., not in China.

    Do you think the Americans came to Wuhan to buy soy sauce?” the narrator asks sarcastically. “They didn’t come to compete; they came because they had a job to do,” and while he doesn’t say so explicitly, the implication is clear: the “job” was to plant the new virus in Wuhan, thereby framing China as the creator of the new disease.

    And from there, the video moves to other suspicious “facts” about the epidemic, among them: that some Japanese who had never been to China came down with the virus after vacationing in Hawaii; that more strains of the virus have been detected in the U.S. than in China; that Fort Detrick was mysteriously closed by the Centers for Disease Control last July.

    The narrator also repeats some by now discredited claims, notably that Robert Redfield, the head of the CDC, admitted at a press conference that some Americans believed to have died of the flu last fall actually died of Covid-19. Redfield admitted this “very firmly,” the narrator says, thereby, he contends, providing irrefutable confirmation of the theory that the virus was in the U.S. before it was in China.

    What Redfield actually said during congressional testimony in March, well after the virus had begun to spread in the U.S., was that it is possible that some people whose deaths were believed to have been caused by the flu might actually have been victims of the coronavirus but weren’t tested for it. He did not say that people died of Covid-19 last fall, before the disease appeared in China.

    The Chinese video then goes on to answer its question regarding the identity of patient zero: It was Maatje Benassi, the army bicycle racer.

    “The circle is complete,” the narrator says, and then addresses President Trump: “What is your response?”

    The outward circulation of the Chinese claims on platforms like Twitter and YouTube (whcih are banned in China), could be in part a simple matter of national pride, a concern for the country’s international image, and a response to President Trump’s use of the term “Chinese virus” to refer to the disease, which has infuriated many Chinese. But some commentators point out that China’s withholding of information was a breach of international law that could make it legally liable.

    China’s failure to provide timely information about the virus and its level of contagion to the World Health Organization, for example, “is more than a moral breakdown,” James Kraska, a professor of international maritime law at the Naval War College, wrote recently. “It is also a breach of a legal duty that China owed to other states under international law, and for which injured states – now numbering some 150 – may seek a legal remedy.”

    To be sure, conspiracy theories are legion around the world, whether it’s the claim that the 9/11 attacks were a CIA plot to give President Bush an excuse to invade Iraq, or whether it’s the notion, reiterated by Tom Cotton, the Republican senator from Arkansas, that the virus originated in a high-tech biochemical lab in Wuhan itself.

    The difference with China is that misinformation there has been used as an element of state policy, sometimes officially, sometimes more informally, but in either case without any possibility that a free press or an independent judicial machinery will challenge the official “truth.”

    Perhaps the most blatant and well-known example of this in China was the country’s denial that its military massacred civilian demonstrators when it brought an end to the massive pro-democracy protests in Beijing in 1989. Almost immediately after the army moved in to crush the protest movement, killing hundreds of people in full view of thousands of eyewitnesses, Chinese television was saying that the only people killed that night were brave army soldiers attacked by “hooligans.”

    The disinformation effort on the coronavirus hasn’t reached that point; it isn’t a massive propaganda campaign inundating the media. Indeed, some efforts to propagate the idea of American responsibility for the virus have fallen flat. Earlier this month, for example, a blogger in China’s Guizhou Province posted a video of a Caucasian man slyly putting spittle on a subway pole. “This is a solid proof showing that Americans were spreading the virus during the Military World Games,” the blogger wrote, asserting that the man in the video was a member of the U.S. Army team and was riding the subway in Wuhan.

    In fact, the video showed a man riding a subway, not in Wuhan at all, but in Brussels, Belgium, where he was arrested and the subway car disinfected. When other social media users in China pointed that out, the blogger retracted his claim, though not before his original post had been viewed by an undetermined number of people.

    But the idea that Maatje Benassi was patient zero and that there is now a “debate” between China and the United States over the origins of the virus has spread around the world, as a Google search of Benassi’s name shows. China’s demand for the U.S. to be “transparent” by releasing the military team’s medical records has appeared on everything from websites about international cycling to 24-hour news sites across the globe.

    Meanwhile, there has been no retraction of the lengthy video “investigation” of the coronavirus’s origins with its claim that it was insinuated into China by the American military. While some Chinese officials are giving credence to that claim, the government has not officially endorsed it. It seems content to put it out there, to spread an idea that might shift discussion about the virus from China’s responsibility to the question: Did it actually originate in America?

    Correction
    March 30, 2020, 10:45 AM Eastern

    An earlier version of this article misstated the location of Fort Detrick. It is in Maryland, not South Carolina.


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 03/30/2020 – 22:05

  • The Math Behind Social Distancing
    The Math Behind Social Distancing

    As we wait for scientists and healthcare professionals to develop a vaccine for COVID-19, there is another, more readily available tool at our disposal.

    Social distancing, defined as measures taken to reduce physical contact, is the first line of defense for containing an infectious disease like COVID-19. That’s because these infections spread when people cough, sneeze, or touch surfaces on which the virus resides.

    To help us grasp the impact these measures can actually have, Visual Capitalists’ Marcus Lu illustrates how a reduction in social exposure can theoretically contain the spread of infection in the following infographic.

     

     

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    Theoretical Potential

    The calculations used to create today’s infographic come from Signer Laboratory, a stem cell research lab located in the Moores Cancer Center at the University of California San Diego.

    Using a summation formula makes it possible to estimate the number of new infections over a 30 day period, across three scenarios.

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    To arrive at the figures reported above, Robert A.J. Signer, Ph.D., and his team made a number of key assumptions.

    First, they estimated the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 to be 2.5, a figure supported by recent research. This means that, on average, an infected individual will spread the disease to 2.5 other people.

    Next, they assumed that an infected individual will unknowingly spread COVID-19 over the median five day incubation period. After this period, the individual will begin to develop symptoms, immediately self quarantine, and no longer pose a threat.

    Finally, they assumed a direct linear correlation between social interactions and R0. This means that when an infected person reduces their physical contact with others by 50%, they also spread the disease by an amount 50% less.

    Timing is Everything

    While the figures above are the results of mathematical estimations, researchers have actually studied social distancing from a variety of angles.

    One study used simulations to determine the magnitude and timing of social distancing measures required to prevent a pandemic. The distancing measures simulated were:

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    The results, for a community of 30,000 people and an epidemic with R=2.5, are charted below. We can define the final illness attack rate as the share of people from an at risk population who ultimately catch the disease.

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    Results showed that when no action was taken, 65% of the population contracted the disease. However, if a combination of all four distancing measures were implemented instead, the attack rates were:

    • 45% (distancing begins after a 4 week delay)

    • 21% (distancing begins after a 3 week delay)

    • 7% (distancing begins after a 2 week delay)

    What’s clear is that social distancing was significantly more effective when implemented with minimal delay—the final illness attack rate rose quickest beyond the third week. These findings draw a parallel to the visualizations in today’s infographic, which showed us just how quickly a disease can spread.

    Social distancing interventions are important as they represent the only … measure guaranteed to be available against a novel strain of influenza in the early phases of a pandemic.

    Kelso, J.K., Milne, G.J. & Kelly, H., BMC Public Health 9, 117 (2009)

    We arrive at a similar conclusion when it comes to the types of distancing measures implemented. In the simulations, none of the four measures taken on their own were able to have a similar effect as when they were combined.

    With the global number of COVID-19 cases still rising, many governments have issued quarantine orders and travel bans.

    The math supports these decisions—reducing our physical contact with others, even when we aren’t experiencing any symptoms, is crucial. Studies like the one summarized above also prove that taking action sooner, rather than later, can go a long way in reducing the spread of infection.

    The key takeaway from all of this? Social distancing is a powerful disease control tool, but only if we all participate.


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 03/30/2020 – 21:45

  • Hydroxychloroquine Prescriptions Triple Overnight Following FDA Approval
    Hydroxychloroquine Prescriptions Triple Overnight Following FDA Approval

    The Food and Drug Administration gave emergency-use authorization to hydroxychloroquine as a treatment for the coronavirus pandemic on Sunday. But demand for the drug backed by President Donald Trump that is typically used to treat malaria soared prior to the move, according to data from Symphony Health.

    Weekly prescriptions soared from 100k to 300k over the past week, since President Trump first mentioned the drug as one of two commons drugs that produced potentially wondrous results if administered together (the other drug, azythromycin, better known as a Z-pak) to COVID-19 patients.

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    Given the market’s desperation for anything that might cure a disease that is killing 1 in 10 people it infects in certain areas, it would seem that concerns of those who took these medications regularly before the crisis might be struggling to source their medication for the first time.

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    The FDA gave emergency approval to a Trump administration plan to distribute millions of doses of anti-malarial drugs to hospitals across the country on Monday, saying it is worth the risk of trying unproven treatments to try and slow the progression of the disease.

    There have been only a handful of anecdotal studies detailing a possible benefit of the drugs, hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine, to relieve the acute respiratory symptoms of COVID-19 and clear the virus from infected patients. If these effects could be widely replicated, it would be nothing short of miraculous. And the evidence certainly offers reason to hope, at least for some.

    Interestingly, prescriptions for the drug surged during the week ended March 20, asnearly 300,000 prescriptions were written in the US that week, roughly triple the 113,000 weekly average in 2019.

    We suspect these numbers will only continue to climb.


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 03/30/2020 – 21:25

  • China Is "Fixed": Chinese PMIs Soar Back Into Expansion, Smashing Expectations
    China Is “Fixed”: Chinese PMIs Soar Back Into Expansion, Smashing Expectations

    Remember the record plunge in China’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI for February when the entire economy imploded as a result of coronavirus pandemic? Well, forget all about it, because in the latest farce out of Beijing, moments ago the goalseekers at the National Bureau Of Statistics came up with March PMI numbers that are so ridiculous they not only make a mockery out of all Chinese “data” reporting, but put into question absolutely everything that Beijing is officially reporting in connection with the pandemic.

    Here’s how China just made everyone around the world cackle with mad laughter:

    • Manufacturing PMI 52.0, exp. 44.8 and up from 35.7. The 50+ print means China is now solidly back in expansion; even more laughably, this was the highest print since September 2017.
    • Non-manufacturing PMI 52.3, exp. 42.0, and up from 29.6. This print is also well in expansion.

    And here is your perfectly normal, “we ain’t even trying to pretend any more” V-shaped recovery.

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    This was the biggest beat of consensus expectations in history!

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    Putting China’s magical recovery in context, here is the consensus forecast for China’s GDP growth.

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    That these completely fabricated, laughable numbers come the day after China cut its reverse repo rate to 2.20%, the lowest on record, and broke its streak of 29 trading days without a reverse repo operating, injecting 50 billion yuan into the economy which is now cratering, was hardly a coincidence.

    And speaking of cratering economy, just yesterday we reported that contrary to the PMI data, China’s consumer default tsunami has now started, to wit:

    • Delinquent credit-card debt in February rose by about 50% from a year earlier.
    • China’s delinquency ratio jumped to a staggering 20% in February, from 13% at the end of last year.
    • An estimated 8 million people in China lost their jobs in February.
    • Industrial profits crashed by 39%.

    In short: China’s real economy is collapsing and the more it contracts, the more compelled Beijing feels to boost consumer confidence with totally fabricated numbers, which however nobody believes any more.

    So what to make of this statistical farce?

    Simple: it’s a political statement directed straight at the US and meant to indicate that China is now fixed, even though knowing just how idiotic these numbers must look, the China Statistical Bureau – as if out of guilt – said the “rebound does not mean the economy has returned to normal and March data alone cannot tell improving trend” adding that “further attention needed on PMI as China’s economy faces new challenges amid increasing pressure of inbound coronavirus infections.”

    Of course, that statement is for international consumption, domestically China will now parade with the highest PMI print in nearly three years as proof that as far as it is concerned, the Wu Flu is now only the world’s problem.

    As for the “data”, well the algos will dutifully lap it up even though everyone now knows that not only China’s economic data is completely made up but, by implication, its coronavirus statistics. Incidentally earlier today ground zero of the deadliest global pandemic in generations, Beijing, said that all 48 new coronavirus cases on March 30 were imported.

    China’s fake bullshit aside, the real news is that the world was badly in need of laughter, and China just delivered.


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 03/30/2020 – 21:23

  • Pentagon Confirms Over 1,000 COVID-19 Cases Among Military, Orders Bases To Stop Public Reporting
    Pentagon Confirms Over 1,000 COVID-19 Cases Among Military, Orders Bases To Stop Public Reporting

    The Department of Defense (DoD) announced a grim milestone Monday — it’s total number of COVID-19 cases among US service members, civilian contractors, on-base civilian staff, and family dependents of troops has surpassed 1,000.

    “Total DoD Cases (current, recovered and deaths) is 1,087,” according to DoD fact sheet released on Monday. The numbers are as follow:

    • 569 military cases

    • 220 civilian cases 

    • 190 dependent cases

    • 64 contractor cases

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    Defense Secretary Mark Esper, via Reuters.

    The Pentagon said 569 service members have been infected, among these 26 hospitalizations, and 34 have recovered.

    The remainder of total cases involve civilian contractors working on military bases and/or at the Pentagon, as well as dependents. This number is up significantly from Friday’s total DoD number of 600.

    But it appears we are fast heading toward a near total reporting blockage in terms of DoD-wide cases, and specifically where they originate, and in what branches of the US armed services. As Stars & Stripes reports:

    The Defense Department has ordered commanders at all of its installations worldwide to stop announcing publicly new coronavirus cases among their personnel, as the Pentagon said Monday that more than 1,000 U.S. military-linked people had been sickened by the virus.

    The order issued by Defense Secretary Mark Esper on Friday is meant to protect operational security at the Defense Department’s global installations, Jonathan Hoffman, the Pentagon’s chief spokesman, said in a statement Monday. He said Defense Department leaders worried adversaries could exploit such information, especially if the data showed the outbreak impacted U.S. nuclear forces or other critical units.

    This constitutes perhaps the clearest admission thus far throughout the crisis that the coronavirus pandemic is a serious threat to US defense readiness and national security.

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    USS Theodore Roosevelt, via US Navy

    Currently at least two aircraft carriers are battling outbreaks in their midst – both are in the Pacific Ocean and likely have seen their operational readiness deeply compromised as commanders try to contain the spread, with the USS Theodore Roosevelt already being diverted to Guam days ago.


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 03/30/2020 – 21:05

  • The US 2020 Fiscal Deficit Will Explode To 18%, Unseen Since World War II
    The US 2020 Fiscal Deficit Will Explode To 18%, Unseen Since World War II

    Authored by Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley chief economist

    A Full-Court Policy Press

    I hope that you and your families are well. The past few weeks have been challenging both personally and professionally. Covid-19 is at once a human tragedy and unparalleled synchronous shock, affecting both the demand and supply sides of the global economy.

    Given the scale of disruption to economic activity, we expect a deep global recession in 1H20, with growth contracting by 2.3%Y in 1H20. Assuming the outbreak peaks by April/May, this will likely set the stage for a recovery in 2H20, to 1.5%Y by 4Q20. For the US, we expect an unprecedented drop of 30.1%Q SAAR in 2Q20 with the unemployment rate also rising to a record 12.8% (since data collection began in the 1940s) before we see it bouncing back at a 29.2%Q SAAR pace in 3Q20. However, global growth for full-year 2020 will still see a decline of 0.6%Y, past the 0.5%Y rate of contraction we saw during 2008 and, on our estimates, the weakest pace of growth during peacetime since the 1930s.

    Even before the coronavirus outbreak, the post-GFC global economy had been facing the triple challenge of demographics, debt and disinflation (the 3D Challenge we have written about previously), which the world last faced in the 1930s. At its core, the outbreak represents a substantial shock to incomes, and the impact on aggregate demand will ultimately create renewed disinflationary pressures. The debt challenge will also become more pronounced in the near term as nominal GDP growth weakens and nations, households and corporates face rising levels of indebtedness. Taken together, we expect these forces to bring the 3D Challenge back to the fore.

    The silver lining is that the coronavirus has elicited a strong coordinated monetary and fiscal response. The pace and magnitude at which these policies have been implemented are also unprecedented. Since mid-January, 23 of the 30 central banks we cover have eased monetary policy. The global weighted average policy rate has declined to below post-GFC lows. All the G4 central banks have now announced aggressive quantitative easing programmes. We estimate that these central banks will make asset purchases of ~US$6.5 trillion in this easing cycle, with cumulative asset purchases of US$4-5 trillion by the Fed alone.

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    Over the last few days, the pace of fiscal action has also picked up significantly. We now expect that in the G4 plus China, the combined primary fiscal balance will rise by 440bp (~US$2.8 trillion) in 2020. As a percentage of GDP, the G4+China cyclically adjusted primary deficit will rise to 8.5% of GDP in 2020, significantly higher than the 6.5% in 2009 immediately after the GFC.

    In the US, the speed and magnitude of the policy response have been truly remarkable. The Fed has cut rates to zero and put QE and other lending facilities in place much faster than during the GFC. A fiscal stimulus package has been assembled in a little over a week, compared with two months for the 2008-09 package. In terms of magnitude, we expect the cyclically adjusted primary fiscal deficit to rise to 14% of GDP in 2020 (assuming stimulus of US$2.0 trillion) compared with 7% of GDP in 2009 – the highest level since the 1930s. The headline fiscal deficit will rise to around 18% of GDP in 2020.

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    Based on the experience of the 1930s and of Japan since the 1990s, this aggressive, coordinated fiscal and monetary easing will be critical in addressing the 3D Challenge. With the help of this extraordinary policy action, and assuming an April/May Covid-19 peak, we expect the global economy to be on the mend from 3Q20 onwards.

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    However, based on the experience in China, we foresee a tepid pace of recovery initially, and it won’t be until 3Q21 that output reaches pre-Covid-19 levels in the US and euro area.

    Hawks will undoubtedly argue (and we’ve already heard murmurings) that these expansionary policies bring the risks of rising inflation and deficits and risks to debt sustainability. However, we take the opposing view and argue that these policies need to remain in place for longer until inflation expectations have systematically risen closer to the central banks’ goals. Again, the 1930s offer a cautionary tale. Because expansionary policies were terminated prematurely in 1936-37, the US economy suffered a double dip in 1937-38 (see Global Macro Briefing: 1937-38 Redux?). Hence, policy-makers must not be too quick to sound the all-clear.


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 03/30/2020 – 20:45

  • Greater Depression? Shocking Images Show Horror Of America's New 'Breadlines'
    Greater Depression? Shocking Images Show Horror Of America’s New ‘Breadlines’

    “It could never happen again…”

    A quick Google search shows the horrific scenes from the 1930s as Americans lined up by the thousands for food as The Great Depression struck fast, hard, and deep…

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    And here is today’s shocking ‘breadlines’ – This video shows hundreds of cars waiting to receive food from the Greater Community Food Bank in Duquesne, near Pittsburgh…

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    The last two food bank giveaways drew massive crowds and caused major delays on Route 837. When they had one at Kennywood last week, it drew over 800 cars and backed up for miles.

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    How did America go from “greatest economy ever” to “Greater Depression” so fast?

    And don’t forget, we just had the biggest spike in joblessness… ever…

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    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 03/30/2020 – 20:25

  • France Reports Largest Single-Day Jump In Deaths, Virginia Issues 'Stay At Home' Order: Live Updates
    France Reports Largest Single-Day Jump In Deaths, Virginia Issues ‘Stay At Home’ Order: Live Updates

    Summary:

    • Dr. Fauci says 100k-200k Americans may die from COVID-19
    • Trump extends guidelines to April 30
    • Spain case total passes China
    • Maryland Gov. issues ‘stay at home order’
    • Italy reports slowest rise in new cases in 2 weeks
    • South Korea reports worrying rebound in cases around Seoul
    • Virginia to become latest state to issue shelter in place orders
    • Russia expands Moscow lockdown throughout country
    • 2 dead during outbreak at Tennessee nursing home
    • Ford partners with GE health to produce ventilators
    • NY confirms another 7k cases
    • NYC remains undisputed center of US outbreak
    • New Zealand expands state of emergency
    • Seattle area reports optimistic slowdown in new cases, deaths
    • New York surpasses 1k deaths
    • Indian migrant workers ‘washed’ with disinfectant
    • Dutch navy sailors test positive
    • Netanyahu goes on quarantine
    • Trump: US has enough medical equipment & ventilators to deal with peak of virus outbreak
    • Mnuchin says front-line workers deserve ‘hazard pay’
    • Spike in cases should arrive around Easter, Trump said, deaths expected to be “very low”
    • Washington DC Mayor issued ‘Stay at Home’ order
    • JNJ announces encouraging progress on vaccine
    • Mexico refuses “to implement state of siege” as case numbers remain low
    • Russia ramps up testing
    • WHO said outbreaks in Italy and Spain “potentially stabilizing”
    • LA County reports another 7 deaths, 342 cases
    • UK reports another 2,619 cases
    • Chinese press publishes photo of Xi standing in public without mask
    • France reports another 4k cases
    • Dublin considers travel ban
    • NJ case total climbs to 16.6k
    • UN proposes $2.5 trillion global rescue program
    • Australia launches worker subsidy program
    • Tokyo Olympics officially delayed until 2021
    • Poland imposes more restrictions on life
    • Amazon workers planning strike

    *   *   *

    Update (1900ET): Migrants who cross into the United States illegally are being expelled to Mexico in an average of 96 minutes under emergency coronavirus measures now in force across the U.S. southern border, according to three U.S. officials with knowledge of the latest government statistics.

    Dublin is considering new restrictions on in-bound travelers, as Ireland reported eight further coronavirus deaths and the detection of 295 new infections. Leo Varadkar, the prime minister, said Dublin may impose new restrictions on people entering the country from abroad in an attempt to combat the outbreak. The latest deaths, reported on Monday night, brought to 54 the number of fatalities, and the overall number of COVID-19 cases now stands at 2,910.

    Once again, China reported 48 new cases on Monday, all of which involved foreigners. Continuing the trend from the past few weeks.

    *   *   *

    Update (1700ET): Monday’s press conference was largely a reiteration of what’s already been said, laced with some classic Trump abuse of the press.

    *   *     *

    Update (1648T): An outbreak of the novel coronavirus at one Tennessee nursing home has left two dead and more than 100 others hospitalized just one week after the state banned most visitors at extended-care facilities. According to Fox News, dozens of residents were evacuated from at the Gallatin Center for Rehabilitation and Healing, located in Sumner County northeast of Nashville, on Friday after testing positive for COVID-19, Gov. Bill Lee said in a press release. National Guard troops arrived Saturday to begin testing all remaining residents and staff at the Gallatin Center.

    The incident mirrors a Maryland nursing home where dozens of elderly patients were endangered.

    Muriel Bowser, the mayor of Washington DC, has issued an order demanding all residents to stay at home and shelter in place until further notice. This comes just a couple of days after she ordered all bars and “non0-essential” businesses to close.

    Across the Greater DC area, the number of known coronavirus cases climbed to 2,840 as of Monday, with 1,414 cases in Maryland, 1,021 in Virginia and 405 in DC. The regional total of virus-driven deaths also rose, increasing to 26 in Virginia, 16 in Maryland and 9 in the District, for a total of 51 fatalities, according to WaPo data.

    *   *   *

    Update (1638ET): Ford is responding to pressure from the Trump administration (after Trump mostly went after rival GM and its CEO Mary Barra) to step up and build medically necessary equipment, by announcing that under a partnership with GE, it plans to build 15,000 ventilators over the next 100 days.

    The ventilators will be built at a plant in Michigan in cooperation with GE’s healthcare unit. The companies will then build 30,000 per month as needed to treat patients afflicted with the coronavirus, but hope to finish at least 15,000 over the next 100 days as they’re just starting up, as Reuters reported.

    Ford said the simplified ventilator design, which is licensed by GE Healthcare from Florida-based Airon Corp and has been cleared by the FDA, can meet the needs of most COVID-19 patients.

    *   *   *

    Update (1630ET): LA County just reported another 7 deaths, bringing its death toll to 44, along with 342 new cases, bringing the county-wide total 2,474 cases, according to LA local news station KTLA.

    *   *   *

    Update (1525ET): California Gov. Newsom said Monday that hospitalizations have doubled in the last 4 days.

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    *   *   *

    Update (1430ET): Trump said he and Putin discussed the importance of stability in global energy markets.

    Meanwhile, after Maryland issued a stay-at-home order and Virginia also reportedly weighed a similar order, Vermont Gov. Phil Scott has ordered all lodging, including hotels, Airbnb and campgrounds, to suspend operations on Monday, CNN reports.

    Vermont’s order suspends lodging and applies to hotels, bed and breakfasts, as well as short-term rentals such as Airbnb and campgrounds, Scott said. That includes online advertising and booking, he said. “If you don’t need to come to Vermont, please don’t,” he said. “This is about public health and safety which is our top priority.”

    Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan is warning that medical experts say the coronavirus pandemic could escalate within two weeks in the Washington, D.C., Virginia and Maryland region, where it could resemble the current level of cases in New York City.

    New Jersey recorded 3,347 new positive cases since yesterday, bringing our statewide total to 16,636.

    Virginia’s new ‘stay at home order’ will last until June 10 until modified, which critics cited as a more reasonable timeline, and noted that even Trump is now making gestures toward June.

    Gov. Phil Murphy kept his promise to “shame” those caught violating the state’s lockdown, among them involving residents facing charges including four buddies who met to drag race in a school parking lot, men who held weddings, a woman who left her home to toss a Molotov cocktail at her boyfriend’s residence (unsuccessfully, we might add) and a billiards hall owner who reopened after he was ordered to close.

    Meanwhile, Italian health authorities have extended the national lockdown by another week, extending it to April 12, from April 3.

    *   *   *

    Update (1335ET): Italy’s new cases has slowed, as this chart from Pantheon Macro shows:

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    Finally, in the US, the USNS Comfort, a Navy hospital ship, has docked in New York’s harbor, where it will help tend to people who don’t have the coronavirus.

    “Help New York. We are the ones who are hit now,” Cuomo said at a press conference from the Jacob K. Javits Center, which was converted into four temporary hospitals by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers last week. “That’s today, tomorrow it is going to be somewhere else …It is going to work its way across the country.”

     In France, where the public has seen an encouraging drop in new cases, the case total climbed to 44,550 (prev. 40,174) on Monday, while the French death toll climbed to 3,024 (prev. 2,606), making France the fourth nation to see its death toll from the virus surpass 3,000. It was France’s largest one-day jump in deaths yet.

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    Meanwhile, the Washington Post just reported that the governor of Virginia is preparing to issue a mandatory ‘stay at home’ order…

    *    *    *

    Update (1325ET): NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo is delivering his latest press update, confirmed another 7k cases bringing NY’s total to 66,497, with 1,218 deaths so far, up from just under 1k yesterday.

    Cuomo explained that were are currently seeing  the number of hospitalizations for COVID-19 double every six days or so.

    A total of 1,218 New Yorkers have been lost to the contagion, up 253 from the 965 reported by Cuomo on Sunday afternoon, he added during Monday’s press conference.

    The governor also reminded the public that “the soldiers in this fight are our health care professionals…those are the troops who are fighting this battle for us.”

    And now Nancy Pelosi is set to talk about a ‘Phase 4’ package.

    *   *   *

    Update (1250ET): The UK reported 2,619 new cases of coronavirus and 180 new deaths on Monday, bringing its totals to 22,141 and 1,408 deaths.

    Meanwhile, here’s the latest disturbing chart from Deutsche Bank’s daily note:

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    In other news, the WHO’s emergencies chief said coronavirus cases counted in hard-hit countries like Italy and Spain are “potentially stabilizing,” but that’s no time to let up on tough measures to limit and track the spread of the virus.

    “It is our fervent hope that that is the case,” Dr. Michael Ryan told reporters. “But we have to now push the virus down, and that will not happen by itself.”

    The Dutch defense ministry said Monday that a group of sailors on a Navy submarine has tested positive for the coronavirus.

    Meanwhile, a chart from Pantheon Macro Research shows Italy’s drop in new cases finally.

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    *   *   *

    Update (1212ET): This is huge: Italy has reported its smallest jump in new cases in 2 weeks. Italy reports 4,050 new cases of coronavirus and 812 new deaths, bringing its total to 101,739 cases and 11,591 dead.

    In other news, across Italy, 61 doctors who caught the coronavirus have died, the Italian Association of Doctors said Monday. Out of the 61 deceased doctors, 40 were working in Lombardy, the Italian region worst-hit by coronavirus.

    The number of new cases reported across Italy continues to fall:

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    As the AP explained, Italy is seeing a continued slowdown in the rate of its new confirmed coronavirus cases while registering a record number of people cured as it enters its third week into a nationwide lockdown.

    Epidemiologists, however, believe that Italy’s real caseload is as much as five to 10 times more than the official number, but that those cases aren’t being counted because Italy is only testing people with severe symptoms. Of those infected, 14,620 have been declared cured, including a record 1,590 in the past day.

    Of those who aren’t being counted, presumably all of them are being cured since they’re mostly making it through the outbreak and infection without much in the way of symptoms.

    *    *    *

    Update (1120ET): Gov. Hogan is delivering his daily press conference: So far he’s ordered the state to remain under a mandatory ‘stay at home” order.

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    That order takes place as of 8pmET Monday. Violation can lead to fines up to $5k, or even jail time.

    But will citizens in places like Baltimore obey?

    *   *    *

    Update (1110ET): The UAE is extending distance learning until the end of the academic year in June as the government steps up measures to contain the outbreak of coronavirus as Middle Eastern countries try to combat a sudden jump in new cases and deaths.

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    Russia is ramping up testing as the lockdown in Moscow ramps up and the rest of the country starts to implement lockdowns to varying degrees. The president of Mexico, AMLO, said he “wouldn’t impose a state of siege” on the people, as the number of confirmed cases in the country has remained low.

    Poland’s government is planning further restrictions to public life, as officials warn that the number of coronavirus infections is expected to rise rapidly in Poland over the next few weeks. Michal Dworczyk, the top aide to prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki, said the government would unveil its new measures on Tuesday, without offering any further details of what they would be.

    The UN has called for a $2.5 trillion rescue package for “Developing Countries” who have been hammered by the crisis.

    Unctad, the UN’s trade and development agency, said $1 trillion should be made available through the IMF’s special drawing rights, $1 trillion through debt relief, and another $500 billion via a “Marshall Plan” for emergency services and social relief programs largely in the form of “grants” that eventually become…welll… grants.

    Richard Kozul-Wright, Unctad’s director of globalisation and development strategies, said:

    Advanced economies have promised to do whatever it takes to stop their firms and households from taking a heavy loss of income. But if G20 leaders are to stick to their commitment of a global response in the spirit of solidarity, there must be commensurate action for the 6bn people living outside the core G20 economies.

    It’s a convincing argument, but nevertheless, there’s so much need at home, it’s difficult to justify just handing out more money to the developing world when they can strike some kind of loan-lease deals with China or whatever.

    *   *   *

    Update (0843ET): Trump reminded his Fox & Friends interlocutors that he is “the one that put the sanctions on” when it comes to Russia, and that when he speaks with President Putin in the near future, he will tell Putin to take a hike if he asks for the sanctions to be removed because of the outbreak.

    “I know more about sanctions because I’m the one who put them on Russia.”

    Then Trump jumped into discussion of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, and also said he would “discuss” Venezuela, while also reminding the world that the Soviet Union lost 50 million people during World War 2 (we believe the actual figure is closer to 27 million or more).

    Trump also said he feels Andrew Cuomo would be a tougher political opponent than “Sleepy” Joe Biden, who is probably thrilled that he gets to just kick back and sleep through this crisis.

    Treasury Sec. Steven Mnuchin told Fox Business that hazard pay for workers on the front lines of battling the coronavirus – like nurses but also cashiers at grocery stores – will be included in a fourth legislative rescue package. He said he stands ready, as does the administration, to work with Congress if additional funds are needed in combating the pandemic.

    In other news, the Tokyo Olympics have been rescheduled for the summer of 2021, the International Olympic Committee has announced, though this news was basically pre-announced weeks ago when Japan said it would push for it.

    *   *   *

    Update (0825ET): Before Trump insisted he would “rely on experts” to determine the end of the quarantine and that the worst thing to do would be to “declare victory” over “the invisible enemy” and have it not be true, the president took a few minutes to slam the national press. “I’ve spent three years trying to figure out who is more dishonest the New York Times or the Washington Post,” Trump said. “When I figure it out I’ll call you and we’ll have a special.”

    Steve Doocy laughed a little, though his co-hosts were less amused.

    If you have a cable subscription, you can watch the interview live here:

    https://video.foxnews.com/v/embed.js?id=5614615980001&w=466&h=263Watch the latest video at foxnews.com

    *   *   *

    Update (0817ET): During President Trump’s interview Monday morning on Fox News, Trump insisted that the number of deaths would be “a very low number,” even as Joe Biden interjected, saying “I am issuing this challenge to Donald Trump…He must use the Defense Production Act within the next 48 hours … He may think the risk is having too many. That would be a wonderful problem to have. The risk is having too few.”

    Trump expects the peak now to arrive around Easter though some projections put it around April 15 vs. Easter’s April 12.

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    Trump meanwhile insisted that New York “should have more than enough” ventilators, seeming to settle the federal position on whether the states have enough ventilators “after this is over they’ll be selling ventilators for $1 a piece…we’ll have a lot of them.”

    Workers at an Amazon “fulfillment center” in New York (on Staten Island, no less) are planning to go on strike Monday morning in a gesture of contempt toward Jeff Bezos, as they accuse the company of not doing enough to stop the virus…so much for hoping Amazon would save us.

    Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli PM, said he would be quarantining for a few weeks after coming into contact with somebody who tested positive for the virus.

    *   *   *

    Hours after Dr. Anthony Fauci appeared on CNN’s “State of the Union” yesterday and declared that the current modeling projects between 100k and 200k deaths in the US alone, President Trump stood up at last night’s Rose Garden press conference and declared that the White House would extend its current guidelines – which call for Americans to avoid gatherings of 10 or more, along with a host of other commandments intended to help “flatten the curve” – through the end of April.

    Trump added that the “peak” in new cases & deaths should arrive in two weeks, but by June 1, everything should be fine. This, as New York City hospitals have been transformed into “war zones”, while the number of confirmed cases globally closes in on 1 million. Mayors are cracking down, giving police the authority to hand out fines to anybody who isn’t obeying the terms of the crackdown.

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    The biggest headline overnight: Spain has surpassed China in the total number of confirmed coronavirus infections (joining Italy and the US) as the number of cases rose from 78,797 on Sunday to 85,195 on Monday, with Spain’s death toll rose by 812 to 7,340, according to the Spanish Health Ministry.

    Spanish authorities reported more than 6,000 new cases within 24 hours again on Monday. Among those testing positive: Fernando Simon, the leader of the country’s coronavirus task force.

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    In the US, New York City remains the undisputed epicenter of the national outbreak as the number of new cases out of the Seattle area has noticeably declined. An area that produced 37 of the first 50 fatalities in the US has seen deaths drop off markedly, while hospitals have been mercifully underwhelmed. While each infected person was spreading the virus to an average of 2.7 other people earlier in March, that number appears to have dropped, with one projection suggesting that it was now down to 1.4, according to the New York Times.

    That’s largely thanks to strict measures implemented early on by Washington Gov. Jay Inslee. While NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio was still encouraging New Yorkers to go out and have a good time in late February, Inslee was barring gatherings of more than 250 people and cautioning Washingtonians to stay home and be careful.

    New York, meanwhile, surpassed 1k deaths from COVID-19 over the weekend.

    As of Monday morning, the US had reported 143,055 cases, according to Johns Hopkins, roughly 1 in 5 global cases (the global case total was 732,000). Projections claim that the global case total should surpass 1 million by the end of the week. The CDC is advising people from New York, Connecticut and New Jersey to stay put, and avoid traveling to second homes or relatives’ homes elsewhere in the country.

    As Tokyo health officials recorded another surprising jump in mostly travel-related cases as of Monday, officials in South Korea warned that they were recording a “sustained increase” in new cases, suggesting new clusters forming around Seoul. Meanwhile, EasyJet, one of Europe’s largest airlines, said it would ground its entire fleet as demand for personal travel collapses.

    Across India, migrant workers have struggled with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s sudden lockdown, which left millions of Indians with only hours to prepare. The PM apologized yesterday, and now, news organizations are reporting on some of the draconian steps that local governments are taking to “disinfect” poor migrant workers returning home.

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    Back in Europe, the border closures across the Schengen Area have shuttered borders that haven’t been closed since the fall of the Soviet Union. Here’s a guide produced by a non-profit in the region, which recently noted how many Europeans are now meeting loved ones at borders to share a kiss or a quick hello.

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    As the Russian capital commenced a mandatory self-isolation regime Monday, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin called on regional governors to extend the system across the country to control the coronavirus.

    Now that world leaders expect the virus to last for most of the year, Australia’s government planned to subsidize the wages of private-sector employees for up to six months to help businesses and workers struggling with the impact of the coronavirus shutdown: “We will pay employers to pay their employees,” said Prime Minister Scott Morrison as he announced what he dubbed a “job keeper” program. “Our government has made a decision today…that no government has made before in Australia,” according to the Washington Post.

    The program is part of an $80 billion package.

    In Spain, the number of new cases has surpassed China’s “official” total in the number of confirmed coronavirus infections, as the number of cases rose from 78,797 on Sunday to 85,195 on Monday. The death toll rose by 812 to 7,340.

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    The Chinese press on Sunday published a photo of President Xi standing out in public without a facemask, a notable development as China continues to report no or almost zero new home-grown cases of COVID-19.

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    JNJ meanwhile reported Monday that it has produced a “lead vaccine candidate” in its trials for a COVID-19 vaccine. While it’s certainly a reassuring headline (and CNBC has given it no shortage of attention this morning), it won’t move up the timeframe for an expected vaccine.

    Finally, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said Monday that a new bank lending program passed as part of the $2 trillion stimulus bill late last week will be ready by Friday, and he encouraged every business to apply because the loans will be “forgivable” for companies that hire back workers and retain them.


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 03/30/2020 – 20:11

  • IV Vitamin C "Widely Used" To Treat COVID-19 In NY Hospitals
    IV Vitamin C “Widely Used” To Treat COVID-19 In NY Hospitals

    Authored by Cassius K via The Organic Prepper blog,

    For years regulatory agencies like the FDA have subtly targeted the use of such things as intravenous vitamins.

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    One method they use to target the fabric of culture in which people utilize simple, naturopathic remedies is the stringent enforcement of any regulation they can think of. It seems that the FDA targets regulatory violations supposedly committed by those who deal in naturopathic medicine far more than violations from Big Pharma.

    Almost 10 years ago, in 2011 it was reported that the FDA sent out a warning letter to a small pharmacy, urging them not to stock intravenous vitamin C. In Australia, the mainstream media has consistently inundated the discussion surrounding health with propaganda over the last 10 years, and vitamin C has been specifically scoffed at.

    Despite an observable urge for the regulatory agencies to crush the culture of vitamins and erase their history, it’s leaking out into the mainstream that intravenous (IV) vitamin C in high doses is effective against COVID-19.

    Now New York’s largest hospital system is using Vitamin C for Covid-19

    In New York’s largest hospital system, urgently ill COVID-19 patients are now being given large doses of IV vitamin C, an article from the New York Post reported a couple of days ago.

    Dr. Andrew G. Weber, a pulmonologist and critical-care specialist affiliated with two Northwell Health facilities on Long Island, said his intensive-care patients with the coronavirus immediately receive 1,500 milligrams of intravenous vitamin C.

    Identical amounts of the powerful antioxidant are then readministered three or four times a day, he said.

    Each dose is more than 16 times the National Institutes of Health’s daily recommended dietary allowance of vitamin C, which is just 90 milligrams for adult men and 75 milligrams for adult women.

    The regimen is based on experimental treatments administered to people with the coronavirus in Shanghai, China, Weber said.

    “The patients who received vitamin C did significantly better than those who did not get vitamin C,” he said.

    “It helps a tremendous amount, but it is not highlighted because it’s not a sexy drug.” (source)

    They say the decision to use IV C in New York was based on reports of its effectiveness in China, but vitamin C’s reputation in America far predates that info, although not specifically in response to this virus.

    Intensive-care patients who tested positive for the virus immediately receive a dose of intravenous vitamin C measuring 1,500 milligrams, says pulmonologist Dr. Andrew G. Weber, a Long Island, New York critical-care specialist affiliated with two Northwell Health facilities in the area.

    Up to 4 times a day, the same dose is re-administered. It was not specified what form of IV C was used, but it is likely to be either Ascorbic Acid (what you typically buy at the store) or Sodium Ascorbate (a popular form intended to be easier on the stomach or the body’s acidity).

    Some vitamins, originally derived from the phrase “vital amines,” have different, beneficial effects at much higher doses. At the same time, some minerals or vitamins can throw bodily processes into a state of imbalance with doses too high.

    Vitamin C seems to be one of those vitamins that is potent and extremely beneficial at high doses.

    Vitamin C is being “widely used” to treat this virus “throughout the system,” a spokesman for Northwell confirmed, the institution that operates 23 hospitals including Lenox Hill Hospital in Manhattan.

    This may be a better choice than the more pharmaceutical option.

    On a different note, a pharmaceutical combination consisting of malaria drugs known for horrific side-effects, mixed with antibiotics that are known to have no ability to kill viruses (hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin) was promoted by Donald Trump recently.

    Nevada recently banned the use of hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine to treat the virus. For someone who believes in freedom, any sort of ban would seem like a step in the wrong direction, but the side effects of hydroxychloroquine and related compounds are well documented.

    This 2018 paper published in the Journal of Thoracic Disease examined “HCQ-induced cardiotoxicity,” and heart failure in twins born to a mother who took the drug.

    Another paper published in the European Heart Journal of Acute Cardiovascular Care said cardiotoxicity is a “rare but serious complication of hydroxychloroquine.”

    Not only that but as of March 24, some kind of federal permission was granted to New York hospitals to dose patients with a “cocktail” of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin to patients who were considered desperately ill, “on a ‘compassionate care’ basis.”

    Hopefully, this compassionate care mentality can be directed toward the firm belief in voluntary treatment, of whatever a hospital has, wherever in the world the person is, rather than involuntary treatment with whatever a hospital chooses to give.

    NY is ahead of the curve

    In contrast to what is happening in other places, the NY Post reported the Vitamin C is being “administered in addition to such medicines as the anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine, the antibiotic azithromycin, various biologics, and blood thinners.”

    So why Vitamin C?

    Weber, 34, said vitamin C levels in coronavirus patients drop dramatically when they suffer sepsis, an inflammatory response that occurs when their bodies overreact to the infection.

    “It makes all the sense in the world to try and maintain this level of vitamin C,” he said.

    A clinical trial on the effectiveness of intravenous vitamin C on coronavirus patients began Feb. 14 at Zhongnan Hospital in Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the pandemic. (source)

    Let’s hope we see more hospitals using IV Vitamin C in the fight against Covid-19.


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 03/30/2020 – 20:05

  • "This Will Be A Tsunami" – America Has A New Problem: How To Give Away $2 Trillion In 2 Weeks
    “This Will Be A Tsunami” – America Has A New Problem: How To Give Away $2 Trillion In 2 Weeks

    Markets have rejoiced over the prospect of an unprecedented stimulus bill, which was passed by unanimous vote in the Senate earlier this week, and is awaiting passage in the House on Friday. But as BMO rates strategist Ian Lyngen argued in a note published earlier this week, passing the stimulus bill into law is merely the first hurdle. 

    After that, bureaucrats will need to figure out how to get the money to the people, while individuals and small/medium business owners pray that the money finds its way into their hands before they’re driven into bankruptcy or starvation (or both). The quest to distribute the money will require cooperation between various state and federal systems on a level that’s unprecedented, while states make adjustments to their unemployment systems and other processes to disburse the federal grant money in ways that have never been done before.

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    Douglas Holtz-Eakin, who was on President George W. Bush’s economic team during the 2001 recession, said he’s “cautiously optimistic” about the package, but worries about the money getting where it needs to go, while also worrying that it won’t prevent a dramatic economic contraction.

    “I hope it works. It’s designed sensibly on paper. Now we have to get the money out the door,” Holtz-Eakin said. Even still, “we’re probably going to have a second quarter growth rate that is double-digit negative.”

    Barack Obama’s $800 billion stimulus bill was literally the first major policy accomplishment of his administration, undertaken almost immediately after his inauguration as most of the country was still wrapped up in the aftermath of the crisis. In March, Obama would remark that stocks looked ‘cheap’, effectively calling the bottom. And over the following years, the money slowly trickled out of federal departments and state grants.

    Just as the selloff and economic hit seem more concentrated this time around, so is the government stimulus package meant to effectuate a powerful jolt to economic growth – something strong enough to resuscitate an economy that’s bleeding more than 3 million jobs a week, a number that was effectively curbed by our country’s ability to process the claims (remember, most state governments are still running on massive mainframe computers from the 1980s).

    As Bloomberg explains, new programs like the $377 billion subsidy for small businesses via loans that will become “grants” if the businesses simply choose to retain all of their pre-crisis employees for the next few years are intended to get moving quickly, with the money being ladled out in weeks, not months.

    Remember last week when President Trump first said he wanted checks in mailboxes in two weeks? That deadline is probably impossible. But if that money isn’t there in a month or two, people are really going to start to feel it. As one reporter explained via twitter earlier, the financial system isn’t really set up for the mass forbearance of payments.

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    In other words, the government, the banks, the Fed and everyone else involved is racing against the clock. Both the Treasury, the banks, the various state agencies that administer the welfare and unemployment insurance programs that have just been given a shot of “steroids”, as Chuck Schumer put it – basically everybody involved in making sure this money gets to where it was intended to go – is now scrambling to compete in a sack race that will test the capacity of their systems to work together and also process the sheer volume of payments and disbursements necessary for this program to work.

    Remember how state websites around the country crashed last week as millions of Americans tried to file for unemployment insurance? That was just a glimpse of the mayhem to come. The technological pandemonium will be tantamount to a mass marketing opportunity for Amazon, Microsoft and Google as they battle for the lucrative state and federal contracts to transition these systems off the old mainframes and on to the cloud.

    But technological limitations aren’t the only potential roadblocks. The bill was written in a hurry, and some legal definitions and processes remain vague, opening the door to lawsuits and injunctions and other potential disagreements intended to tie up the payments and divert money as everybody scrambles to get a piece.

    The biggest single portion of the stimulus is the billions earmarked for large companies and state and local governments. But the rules for deciding who is entitled to that money, and how it will be distributed, are still being worked out.

    According to the legislation, the Treasury has 10 days from the date Trump signs it into law to come up with a set of guidelines governing who will qualify for the loans and how the application process will be regulated.

    One of the biggest components of the legislation is the $600 billion earmarked for states to dole out via beefed up unemployment benefits through July 31. Maximum state benefits range from $235 in Mississippi to $823 in Massacjusetts, and the number will range depending on income.

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    Though the government wants individuals to take advantage of the programs “quickly”, at best, the money will take a few days to become available, and the checks won’t start to flow for a week or two, probably longer.

    The added boost would be four months for those laid off now, but less time for those losing their jobs closer to July 31. And with so many different state agencies administering their own programs, there’s plenty of room for some stated to stand out as successes, and others to stand out as failures.

    “We want people to take advantage of all of this quickly,” Pelosi said Thursday. Some of that will “depend on how the states do it, and they are not all uniform.”

    As one Obama-era official said to Bloomberg, compensating contractors and the self-employed gig economy workers could be a challenge for some states.

    Seth Harris, who was deputy secretary of labor in the Obama administration, said the expanded coverage in the legislation, especially to contractors and those employed in the gig economy, may be a logistics challenge for some states.

    “These under-resourced, strapped, stressed systems in many cases do not have the latest technology or data systems,” he said. “Now they’re being hit by the largest tsunami of unemployment claims in the history of those data being collected. Now Congress is asking them to change the way they do things.”

    One Kentucky Republican is threatening to throw up roadblocks for the bill by essentially showing up and demanding an in-person roll call vote, while Speaker Pelosi tries to push through a voice vote to expedite the vote and avoid individuals coming close to one another after at least 2 Congressmen have tested positive for COVID-19.


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 03/30/2020 – 19:45

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 30th March 2020

  • Greenland Bans Alcohol Sales To Reduce Child Abuse As Coronavirus Hits
    Greenland Bans Alcohol Sales To Reduce Child Abuse As Coronavirus Hits

    For several weeks after the start of the global coronavirus pandemic there was a running joke that Trump’s offer to purchase Greenland was brilliant in hindsight as the northern island appeared immune to any the covid cases. That all changed on March 16 when the territory registered its first case.

    Fast forward to today when dpa reports that Greenland has banned alcohol consumption in the capital Nuuk and nearby settlements in a bid to decrease incidences of child abuse as people stay inside to avoid spreading coronavirus. 

    The Sunday decision from Greenland’s government bans all sales of alcoholic drinks with immediate effect in Nuuk and in the settlements of Kapisillit and Qeqertarsuatsiaat until April 15. Explaining the move, Prime Minister Kim Kielsen said the coronavirus emergency response had necessitated a lot of different responses.

    “But at the heart of my decision is protecting children,” Kielsen said. “They should have a secure home.”

    Perhaps due to its location where social distancing was a given long before the coronavirus emerged, Greenland has a well-documented history of sexual abuse of minors, with some studies showing one in three adults living there having experienced it as a child. Many have linked the phenomenon to increased incidences of alcohol and drug abuse, among other things.

    Under the influence of alcohol, people were also less aware, increasing the risk of infection with coronavirus, Kielsen said on Sunday.

    So far only ten people have tested positive for coronavirus in Greenland. No one has died.

    Greenland is largely independent, but officially belongs to Denmark; Last August Trump sparked a diplomatic scandal when he suggested buying Greenland (the purchase price was never disclosedd), sparking Denmark’s fury. Around 55,000 people live on the territory, which is the largest island on earth. About a third of them live in the capital Nuuk.


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 03/30/2020 – 02:35

  • We Are All Totalitarians Now – COIVD-19 Brings Back Europe's Spirit Of The Polis
    We Are All Totalitarians Now – COIVD-19 Brings Back Europe’s Spirit Of The Polis

    Authored by Guillaume Durocher via The Unz Review,

    The coronavirus epidemic has been highly instructive. In the face of a looming early death for millions of citizens, Western States have entered a genuine crisis in which the Schmittian sovereign – who was always there lying in waiting – has reemerged into the open and taken all the measures deemed necessary, liberty and law be damned.

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    The nations making up the European Union are highly illustrative in this respect.

    For starters, there was no unified European response.

    Each nation having its own police and media/consciousness, each one adopted their measures in a haphazard and uncoordinated manner, although all tended towards a gradual escalation.

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    Jean Quatremer, Libération’s euro-federalist correspondent in Brussels, lamented:

    Up to now, it has been every man for himself. Italy, the epicenter of the European epidemic, was abandoned; Germany and France even went so far as to forbid the export of medical equipment, with no regard for solidarity.”

    Admittedly that was two weeks ago and since then the Europeans have made some progress in getting their act together.

    The European Central Bank (ECB) is perhaps the EU’s only truly federal and sovereign entity, in some respects more powerful than the U.S. Federal Reserve, because there is no pan-European political counterpart to counterbalance it. A few days after making the faux pas of declaring that the Bank’s job did not involve policing interest rate spreads, ECB President Christine Lagarde reversed her position and declared her institution would lend €750 billion to stabilize the European economy.

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    I am always left in awe of this spectacle: while European officials and lobbyists are locked in a perpetual struggle of niggardly Kuhhandel in Brussels over the pork-laden EU budget, Lagarde can summon up five times the annual budget with a snap of her fingers.

    Corona really does work miracles.

    Things that were declared “impossible” have become the norm. The parks of Western European cities are finally being cleared of migrants, now that these have been declared a sanitary hazard (being a criminal one was apparently not enough).

    The European Parliament’s meetings in Strasbourg – a traveling circus which costs taxpayers €100 million per years – have been suspended. The EU’s balanced-budget rulebook, which the Germans fought so hard to impose over the last decades, has been thrown out the window. Each State is to borrow as it pleases to bail out businesses and provide welfare, at least for the duration of the national lockdowns. Individual liberty has been put indefinitely on hold.

    In Italy, the number of cases and dead continues to steadily rise. As of 27 March, over 9,000 have died, including almost 1,000 just in the past day. Overwhelmed medical professionals have been forced to institute the grim practice of triage, choosing to concentrate on those individuals who have the best chance of survival and leaving many of the elderly to die.

    Mankind only learns the hard way: one funeral at a time. A month ago, the mayor of Florence urged his fellow citizens to “huge a Chinese” in order to fight racism and xenophobia. Now Italian mayors are verbally abusing their residents to stay indoors in classic national style.

    European States have adopted genuinely totalitarian levels of social control, affecting all citizens’ daily lives. In France, you cannot go into the street without a written declaration of your particular reason for being outside. Our countries have adopted a basically Mussolinian notion of collection liberty. As the Duce himself argued in his Doctrine of Fascism:

    [Fascism] is opposed to classical liberalism which arose as a reaction to absolutism and exhausted its historical function when the State became the expression of the conscience and will of the people. [. . .] And if liberty is to be the attribute of living men and not of abstract dummies invented by individualistic liberalism, then Fascism stands for liberty, and for the only liberty worth having, the liberty of the State and of the individual within the State.

    And, in truth, Western Europeans have by and large embraced the new measures. Huge majorities of over 85% support the national lockdowns in Spain, Italy, France, and Britain. With a typical “rally-around-the-flag” effect, leading politicians have also regained in popularity. French President Emmanuel Macron now has a 44% approval rating, a figure not seen since July 2017, while confidence in Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe has jumped by over 10 points since the start of the crisis, reaching 51%.

    Our liberal democracies found their legitimacy on the sacrosanct equality and liberty of the individual, that is to say. Such doctrines and practices certainly thrive in peacetime but as soon as there is a real threat of death – an early death for millions of elderly Westerners, in this case – these notions melt away like snow in the morning sun.

    In the face of genuine danger, the natural social condition effortlessly reasserts itself. Liberty, equality, and the “rights of man” naturally give way to the imperative of collective survival: Every man at his post!

    In truth, collective organization in the face of imminent danger has been the norm throughout human history. Social prescription went far beyond mere politics to being part of something much deeper: custom.

    There is a curious contradiction running across Western societies today. Over the last two-and-a-half centuries, we have seen the individual rebel more and more forcefully against the formal strictures of the group, against formal inequalities and restrictions on “private” liberty (for instance, buggery, harlotry, and spinsterdom). Any attempt to take action to reverse Western nations’ decline and save their ethnic and genetic identity is considered a “human rights violation.” At the same time, in practice, our citizens tolerate and often outright expect massive curtailment of their liberties, usually in the name of security.

    The fascist critique of liberal-democratic ethics basically boiled down to a denunciation of selfishness and hypocrisy. As Ezra Pound complained in 1938: “In our time the liberal has asked for almost no freedom save freedom to commit acts contrary to the general good.” Indeed, Pound noted that as people had only known “the loose waftiness of demoliberal ideology,” one needed “sharp speech” to open minds.

    Many have warned of the dangers of making individual entitlement the moral yardstick of nations. Gandhi, Heinlein, Solzhenitsyn, to name only a few, all tried to make the point their own way. Here is a lesser-known example, the Romanian anti-communist Petre Țuțea, who in the first years after the fall of Ceaușescu confused his freedom-hungry interlocutors by saying:

    Communist totalitarianism is a contradiction in terms. Totalitarians can only be those people who from start from the whole to go to the part – according to the Aristotelian formula. [. . .] The [CommunistManifesto’s end is final anarchy [. . .]. By their end, communists are anarchists.

    Fascists, Hitlerians, and the Catholic Church are totalitarian, because they start from the Aristotelian principle: the whole comes before the part. These are totalitarians.

    A journalist told me: You can’t say that, you are confusing the youth! I can’t broadcast that if everyone considers communists to be totalitarian . . .

    But me […] I cannot take it back. I cannot lie.

    It’s all well and good to understand that such a thing as civic virtue exists in times of crisis: that we are all in this together and must behave accordingly. But why does such Hellenic good sense not extend to peacetime?

    Already today, civic virtue is highly unevenly distributed among the “French” population. Videos are circulating on social media of Africans and Muslims in France blatantly ignoring the confinement and social-distancing measures. According to Le Canard Enchaîné newspaper, the Interior Ministry responded by instituting “confinement lite” among this decidedly sensitive population.

    This crisis is also an opportunity to reflect on the slow death of the Italian nation. I was raised near Italy and frequently visited the country growing up, gaining a real fondness for Italians and Italian culture. For me, crossing the Alps was like entering a different world, a different rhythm of existence. Today of course, with the Internet and the euro, the difference does not feel so great, yet still I love every second spent in the country.

    Today, over 22% of the Italian population is over 65. The fertility rate of 1.32 per woman is among the lowest in Europe and is in continuous decline. While the Italians do not practice birthright citizenship and have not made it easy for non-European migrants to settle, there is still enormous pressure on the country from a continuous flow of illegals from Africa and the Middle East. We can ask: What will be left of Italy in 100 years? Not much, it seems, and that would be a great tragedy and a great crime.

    There do not seem to be ten thousand ways of preventing the death of a nation.

    Italy’s former Fascist regime fought for the country’s birthrate, power, stability, and economic independence. Emil Cioran – suspending his usual manic-depressive hyperbole – gave this qualified praise: “Overpopulation and Mussolini’s political genius have obviously raised [Italy’s] historical level [. . .]. Through Fascism, Italy suggested to itself that it become a great power. The result: she has succeeded in attracting the world’s serious interest. Nothing more.”

    The citizens of the postwar Italian republic, that byword for the sleazy corruption of parliamentary politicians, have certainly enjoyed the fruits of consumerism. In the meantime, the country has steadily dwindled in significance, childless and aging, being reduced to a kind of debt colony of the European Union and international high finance.

    The current polls still indicate a certain unpopularity for the Italian government, with a majority supporting a Right-wing coalition including conservatives and, especially, the nationalist parties Lega Nord and Fratelli d’Italia (Brothers of Italy).

    The European financial system – that pyramid scheme of pyramid schemes – will emerge extraordinarily weakened from this crisis, as all the highly-uneven gains of recent years are lost with piling-ups of debt and reduced growth due to the coronavirus response. There are sure to be more crises.

    Many globalists are afraid of what is to come. Joseph Borrell, the EU’s top diplomat, is worried China’s authoritarian competence will make Europe look bad. He opined on the European External Action Service’s blog:

    There is a global battle of narratives going on in which timing is a crucial factor. [. . .] China has brought down local new infections to single figures – and it is now sending equipment and doctors to Europe, as others do as well. China is aggressively pushing the message that, unlike the US, it is a responsible and reliable partner. In the battle of narratives we have also seen attempts to discredit the EU as such and some instances where Europeans have been stigmatised as if all were carriers of the virus. [. . .]

    But we must be aware there is a geo-political component including a struggle for influence through spinning and the ‘politics of generosity’. Armed with facts, we need to defend Europe against its detractors.

    Personally, I’m not too worried about Chinese soft power. If Westerners look bad in comparison, that is only because of their own incompetence rather than the nefariousness of the Chinese. The Chinese State wants to make deals. The globalists want something much dearer: they want to bribe you into losing your national soul, your traditional values, your fighting spirit.

    This crisis may come to be seen as the moment in which a declining and incoherent liberal-globalist West was geopolitically overtaken by an confident and organized national-authoritarian China. If so, we can also expect other countries may be tempted to change their political models.

    For us Westerners, I’d arguer we don’t need to go so far afield for inspiration.


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 03/30/2020 – 02:00

  • 'Need Our Help?' Iran's IRGC Mocks US For Now Leading World In COVID-19 Cases
    ‘Need Our Help?’ Iran’s IRGC Mocks US For Now Leading World In COVID-19 Cases

    On the same day the United States leveled yet more sanctions against the Islamic Republic, blacklisting 20 Iran- and Iraq-based companies, officials and individuals for supporting terrorism, leaders in Tehran took to publicly mocking the US for now being the global epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic

    As of Friday evening numbers of US confirmed cases have surpassed 100,000 soaring past China and Italy. This prompted the head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), Major General Hossein Salami, to mock the new situation, saying his country is fully capable of containing the virus on its own and even has enough healthcare capacities to help the American people fight the outbreak if called upon.

    “We can help Americans fight coronavirus and don’t need their assistance,” the IRGC chief said tauntingly, according to state media.

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    Head of the IRGC, Major General Hossein Salami, file image.

    Ironically the remarks also came reportedly on the sidelines of Iranian biological defense drills, and in response to prior statements from the US administration that it is willing to extend a helping humanitarian hand to assist the Iranian people through the crisis.

    “When Americans say they want to help the Iranian nation under these conditions, it is nothing but demagogy,” the IRGC chief commander said.

    General Salami added

    “They are themselves plagued by this virus outbreak and their healthcare infrastructure cannot protect the American people against this phenomenon. If the American nation needs help, we can render assistance to them, but we do not need their help.”

    On Sunday Ayatollah Khamenei similarly condemned Washington’s “offer” of assistance, dismissing the overture as “strange” given America’s own health equipment shortages and exploding numbers of cases.

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    The White House’s feigning to “help” appears but mere PR management more than anything else, given it’s come under growing criticism from European allies and the media, including even the UK (which on principle has agreed with the ‘maximum pressure’ campaign), for an all-encompassing sanctions regimen which will surely result in more Covid-19 deaths inside Iran as a blockade of essential supplies and medicines continues.

    Iran’s official confirmed cases soared past 30,000 this week, out of a population of some 80 million; however, true numbers are considered much higher, and the Trump administration has accused the Iranians of consistently suppressing information throughout the crisis.


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 03/30/2020 – 01:00

  • "The Plannedemic"?
    “The Plannedemic”?

    Authored by Ben Garrison

    A PLAN YOU CAN’T TRUST!

    For the past decade, Bill gates has been warning us about an inevitable pandemic. Conditioning us. Getting us used to the idea.

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    Last year, he even held a summit on the matter and ran computer simulations to predict outcomes. Why did a former computer nerd and mogul become so interested in vaccination and disease?

    Possibly because he’s worth over $100 billion and thinks he owns the world. He also wants to make an impact on humanity. Getting rid of excess humanity, that is. Bill’s father was once the head of Planned Parenthood. He comes from a eugenics background. Gates frets about world population growth. Is it any wonder he pushes Monsanto’s GMO food as well as harmful vaccines?

    Apparently Bill’s computer simulations discovered that people would easily fold under government pressure combined with an unseen enemy. Billions of people are under lockdown right now. Half the world is shut down. Gates must marvel at how easy it was to do it. Things are going according to plan. They can’t control us physically, but he can control us mentally through fear drummed into our brains 24/7 by mass media.

    The coronavirus is real, but we’ve had many waves of flu viruses throughout the years. Many thousands die each year from the flu. Our elderly and infirm are the hardest hit.

    This time the deaths are being magnified by the Fear Porn Channels. Statistics are controlled and manipulated to produce panic and hysteria.

    The Democrats failed with their Russia collusion lie. They failed with impeachment. They are all for this hysteria because they can blame it all on Trump.

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    Trish Regan was just fired from Fox Business Network because she called out concerns that the Chinese coronavirus was just another attempt to impeach President Donald Trump.

    That was too close to the truth for Fox. They fired her.

    We now have social distancing to further divide the human race – as if we were all some sort of disease in need of eradication. The corrupt WHO and CDC have us controlled like puppets on strings. We obey without question. Citizens are not allowed to question medical ‘authorities’ without fearing censorship or ridicule. When the time comes for a mandatory vaccine, people will already have become conditioned to obey the medical ‘authorities,’ and it’s all going according to plan.

    But some plans have a way of not working out as planned.

    Never take your eyes off government in a crisis.


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 03/29/2020 – 23:55

  • Pentagon Orders Essential Staff To Deep Underground Mountain Bunker As Pandemic Prep Escalates
    Pentagon Orders Essential Staff To Deep Underground Mountain Bunker As Pandemic Prep Escalates

    North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) & the US’ Northern Command (NORTHCOM) held a Facebook Live town hall meeting on Tuesday, March 24, informing the public how their essential teams in charge of homeland security are isolating at the Cheyenne Mountain bunker in Colorado amid the COVID-19 pandemic

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    Air Force General Terrence O’Shaughnessy, who commands NORAD and NORTHCOM, told reporters on Facebook Live last Tuesday that essential staff is being moved from Peterson Air Force Base in Colorado to the underground bunker complex that is 24 miles away in Cheyenne Mountain. The facility is more than 2,000 feet underground and can survive a 30 megaton nuclear explosion.

    “To ensure that we can defend the homeland despite this pandemic, our command and control watch teams here in the headquarters split into multiple shifts and portions of our watch team began working from Cheyenne Mountain Air Force Station, creating a third team at an alternate location as well,” O’Shaughnessy said. 

    “Our dedicated professionals of the NORAD and NORTHCOM command and control watch have left their homes, said goodbye to their families and are isolated from everyone to ensure that they can stand the watch each and every day to defend our homeland.

    “It’s certainly not optimal, but it’s absolutely necessary and appropriate given the situation.”

    NORAD and NORTHCOM have already used up about 30% of the underground facility, according to The Drive. O’Shaughnessy said with the increased personnel, his “primary concern was … are we going to have the space inside the mountain for everybody who wants to move in there, and I’m not at liberty to discuss who’s moving in there.”

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    If the staff at Cheyenne are infected, there is a third team of higher-ranking military officials operating at another facility that can remotely assume command. 

    With the virus crisis deepening in the US, confirmed cases have now surged over 124,000, with 2,191 deaths (as of Sunday morning). President Trump signed an executive order Friday, allowing the Departments of Defense and Homeland Security to activate National Guard and reservists to battle the COVID-19 outbreak across the US. 

    We noted last week that the US is in the “acceleration phase” of the outbreak, which means the health crisis could get much worse in the coming weeks. 

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    How much worse?

    Well, the Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies has just warned that social unrest in major Western cities could develop in the coming weeks. 

    The evolution of the virus crisis could be social destabilization, hence why the military is preparing. 


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 03/29/2020 – 23:30

  • Putin Says 'The Rich Must Pay' For The COVID-19 Chaos
    Putin Says ‘The Rich Must Pay’ For The COVID-19 Chaos

    Authored by Mike Whitney via The Unz Review,

    Vladimir Putin has decided how Russia is going to pay for the corona-virus… He’s going to tax the rich.

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    It’s a remedy that most Americans would support if they were given the choice, but they weren’t asked. Instead, Congress passed a $2 trillion stimulus package for which the American taxpayer will be held entirely responsible. Even worse, the new legislation contains a $500 billion allocation (another corporate giveaway) that the Federal Reserve will use as a capital base for borrowing $4.5 trillion. That massive sum of money will be used to buy toxic bonds in the corporate bond market. Just as Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) were used to fleece millions of investors out of their hard-earned savings in the run-up to the 2008 Financial Crisis, so too, “toxic” corporate bonds were the weapon of choice that was used to pilfer trillions of dollars from investors in the run-up to today’s crisis. (Same scam, different instrument) The virus was merely the proximate cause that tipped the sector into meltdown. The problem had been festering for years and everyone in the financial community (Including the Fed, the BIS and the IMF) knew that it was only a matter of time before the market would blow sky-high. Which it did.

    What every American needs to know is that our crooked bought-and-paid-for Congress just passed a bill that transfers the credit risk for $4.5 trillion of corporate sludge onto the National Debt. A bailout of this magnitude could impact the nation’s credit rating (Fitch has already issued a warning), send interest rates to the moon, dampen economic activity for years to come, and pave the way for a long and painful slump. The much ballyhooed $1,200 checks for unemployed workers are merely a tactical diversion that’s being used to conceal the giant ripoff that is taking place right under our noses.

    In contrast, Putin has settled on a more rational and compassionate plan. He’s going to launch a relief program that actually focuses on the people who need it the most. Then, he’s going to cover the costs by taxing the people who are most capable of shouldering the burden. His intention is not to “soak the rich” or to redistribute wealth. He simply wants to find the most equitable way to share the costs for this completely unexpected crisis. In short, Putin was presented with two very bad options:

    1– Let the Russian people huddle in their homes (“shelter in place”) until the food runs out and the bills pile up to the ceiling.

    2–Or tap into a temporary source of revenue that will help the country get through the hard times.

    He wisely chose the latter option not because he’s a fiery leftist who hates the “free market”, but because he realizes that in a time of national crisis, the people who are more able to pay, should pay. It’s a question of fairness.

    And who are the people who will benefit from Putin’s plan? Well, he named them in a speech he delivered to the nation just last week. Here’s a clip:

    “We also need to take additional steps, primarily to ensure the social protection of our people, their incomes and jobs, as well as support for small and medium-sized businesses, which employ millions of people….

    First, all social protection benefits that our citizens are entitled to, should be renewed automatically over the next six months… if a family is entitled to subsidized housing and utility payments, they will not need to regularly confirm their per capita income to continue receiving this state support…all payments to war veterans and home-front workers timed to the 75th anniversary of the Great Victory, 75,000 and 50,000 rubles, respectively, should be made before the May holidays…

    Second, it is essential to support families with children……..Third, we need to support those on sick leave and people who have lost their jobs.” (Putin’s Address to the Nation)

    See? No big payouts to failing corporations, no welfare checks for Wall Street, and no tax breaks for fatcat bankers and their crooked friends. Just money for the people who desperately need it: Families with children, veterans, home-front workers, the sick, the unemployed, and the homeless. Simple and fair.

    The strategy is aimed at everyone who is impacted by the virus, not just the people who filed taxes last year like the Trump Plan, but anyone who needs public assistance. At the same time, financial support will be provided for small and medium-sized businesses, incomes will be protected, jobs will be guaranteed. and mortgage payments will be suspended. It’s not a perfect plan, but it’s fairly comprehensive and targets the people that are most vulnerable. It also underscores the primary responsibility of government during times of crisis, that is, to ensure the health, safety and security of its people. That is Job 1.

    The Putin plan also provides support for medical personnel, doctors, nurses, emergency staff, hospital employees, health care workers and first-responders. Here’s Putin:

    “We have mobilized all the capabilities and resources for deploying a system of timely prevention and treatment. I would like to specially address doctors, paramedics, nurses, staff at hospitals, outpatient clinics, rural paramedic centers, ambulance services, and researchers: you are at the forefront of dealing with this situation. My heartfelt gratitude to you for your dedicated efforts.”

    Will Putin and his advisors make mistakes in containing the virus and ending the contagion as swiftly as possible?

    Probably, but it certainly looks like they’ve got their priorities right. Putin seems to understand that the health and welfare of the Russian people has to be put before the stock market, finance capital or the voracious corporate kingpins. In contrast, Trump wants to put more people at risk of infection by sending them back to work after Easter. That’s just not the way responsible leaders behave, not if they really care about the health of their people. Here’s more from Putin:

    “There are two more measures I would like to suggest. First, all interest and dividend income that flows from Russia and is transferred abroad into offshore jurisdictions must be taxed properly….I suggest that those expatriating their income as dividends to foreign accounts should pay a 15 percent tax on these dividends….

    Second, many countries levy income tax on interest earned by individuals from their bank deposits and investments in securities, while Russia does not tax this income at all. I propose that people with over 1 million rubles in bank deposits and debt securities pay a 13 percent tax on this income…. I propose using the budget revenue from these two measures to fund initiatives to support families with children and help people who are unemployed or on sick leave.”

    What does it mean?

    It means that Putin is closing tax havens and tax loopholes so he can get the money he needs to pay for the epidemic. It means he’s taking on the wealthiest and most powerful people in Russia so he can provide relief for the people who are stuck in their homes trying to survive. It means he’s risking his own political future in order to do the right thing. Here’s Putin:

    “People of Russia, we need the state, society and the people to work together.. We have to be mindful that we bear personal responsibility for our close ones, for those who live near us, and who need our help and support….It is our sense of solidarity that underpins the resilience of our society, as well as an unwavering commitment to mutual assistance and the effectiveness of the response we come up with to overcome the challenge we are facing.”

    Shared sacrifice, solidarity and brotherly love. That’s what he’s talking about, isn’t it? The threads that bind a disparate group of people into a sovereign nation.

    In America, we make the working poor pay for the excesses of the crooked rich, while in Russia, the wealthy are asked to make sacrifices for the sake of the country. Which approach do you think is better?


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 03/29/2020 – 23:05

  • As States Shutter Gun Stores Amid Surging Demand, Rights Activist Launches "Netflix For 3-D Guns"
    As States Shutter Gun Stores Amid Surging Demand, Rights Activist Launches “Netflix For 3-D Guns”

    Cody Wilson, the self-described anarchist and leader of the 3D-printed gun movement, is absolutely bat sh*t crazy. He released a new promo video, highlighting several ghost guns, himself wearing a 3M N-95 virus mask, and at the end of the video, Wilson takes a bow at the Fannin Memorial Monument in Texas. 

    Wilson has pioneered the technology and know-how behind developing plastic guns with three-dimensional printers, something gun-control advocates and the US government are absolutely terrified about.

    He is the founder of “Defense Distributed” and “Defcad,” which have had many legal disputes with the federal government over not just the production of the 3D printed weapon parts, but also the right to share the blueprints online. 

    For the third time, Wilson has released 3D weapon blueprints to the public: 

    “This was the third time he [Wilson] has released such files, but the first time he has abided by US foreign export controls online, using what he said are digital verification tools to ensure legal file downloads,” The Wall Street Journal said. 

    Wilson told The Journal that the latest release of blueprints for 3-D weapons would be “impervious” to legal challenge and would allow the public to access the files for a small fee. 

    For a yearly subscription fee of $50, or about $4.16 per month, anyone can have access to the “Netflix for 3-D guns” service. This means anyone with a 3-D printer can print a weapon in their garage.

    The debut of Wilson’s “Netflix for 3-D guns” service comes as gun stores across the country are seeing a massive influx of people who want guns and ammunition amid a pandemic that is worsening by the day. Reports have indicated that specific weapons and a wide range of ammo have sold out as states are shuttering stores.

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    Gun advocates have denounced Wilson’s latest move, saying it will lead to the proliferation of 3-D printed weapons. Guns that are printed don’t have a serial number and are considered “ghost guns,” mostly because the government cannot track them. 

    “The biggest concern with 3-D-printed guns and the technical data for them is that they’re not traceable,” said Kelly Sampson, counsel at Brady: United Against Gun Violence, a gun-control group. “It’s a huge loophole and opportunity for people who would otherwise be unable to access firearms to be able to do so.”

    Wilson said he’s fighting the government’s attempt to limit freedoms of Americans and expects anyone that agrees with him to download weapon blueprints not necessarily to print the guns, but “as a form of internal resistance.” 

    “For me, this is a political battle,” he said.

    Wilson has been in a protracted legal battle with the federal government, and in 2018 won the case when the State Department authorized him to distribute 3-D weapon blueprints online by issuing Defense Distributed a license to do so.

    Another lawsuit was brought against Wilson by the Seattle federal court last year, which recently forced Defense Distributed to offer the blueprints behind “four levels of security, including IP geolocation and proxy detection and technology developed for credit bureaus and anti-money-laundering specialists” on the website, the Journal noted.

    “The internet is not an airtight, hack-proof system,” Sampson said. “Even some of our most secure databases are vulnerable. It’s not quite living in reality to assume that you can 100% secure information that’s online.”

    Wilson said his new “Netflix for 3-D guns” service is “complaint” with the federal government but can’t prevent people who downloaded blueprints from sharing them online. “I can only tell them that it’s against the law to do so,” he added.

    On Wilson’s Defcad website, 5,872 files have been made available, with over 30,585 downloads from 14,016 users.

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    One weapon that a millennial in their parent’s basement can print is called the FGC-9. The gun is a “9x19mm pistol caliber carbine that is made mostly out of 3D-printed components, utilizes an AR-15 or airsoft M4 rifle fire control group, is compatible with Glock magazines and offers a truly effective, simple to build and reliable tactical option for self-defense and more,” the website said. 

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    Another weapon to print is the M4A1 Carbine. 

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    The next big trend that could soon be underway in a pandemic is people printing guns at home. 


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 03/29/2020 – 22:40

  • "I'm Terrified" – New York Turns Into "War Zone" As City's 911 System Faces Overwhelming Onslaught
    “I’m Terrified” – New York Turns Into “War Zone” As City’s 911 System Faces Overwhelming Onslaught

    As New York deals with its worsening coronavirus outbreak in real time, “terrified” 911 operators find themselves having to make life-or-death decisions on a whim, on a daily basis. 

    “It’s all a war zone,” one paramedic said.

     “I’m terrified. I honestly don’t know if I’m going to survive. I’m terrified of what I’ve already possibly brought home,” Phil Suarez, an Iraq war vet who is a paramedic, added.

    In fact, some patients are being left behind in their homes as the healthcare system becomes overwhelmed with calls relating to the virus, according to the New York Times

    The 911 system that generally fields about 4,000 calls per day was swamped with over 7,000 calls last Thursday. It is a volume of calls that the city hasn’t seen since September 11, 2001. 

    The volume has put Emergency Medical Personnel in the position of having to determine which cases should receive time-consuming medical measures, like CPR and intubation, and which cases are “too far gone”. 

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    Phil Suarez/Photo source: NY Times

    And many of these workers are doing it without the proper protection. Meanwhile, New York remains on a trajectory to pass Wuhan in terms of the severity of its outbreak, assuming you take China’s numbers at face value. 

    One paramedic told the New York Times that a woman had “drank a liter of vodka” to try and commit suicide after her cancer treatments were delayed because hospital beds were being occupied by coronavirus patients. Another paramedic said that the battery on her defibrillator died from responding to so many cardiac arrests on one shift. 

    The paramedic said: 

    “It does not matter where you are. It doesn’t matter how much money you have. This virus is treating everyone equally.”

    Frank Dwyer, a Fire Department spokesman, commented: 

    “Our E.M.T.s and paramedics are on the front line during an unprecedented time in the department’s history. They’re doing it professionally, and they’re doing it because they care about their patients. They care about this city.”

    The department has said that it is rationing protective gear to try and prevent shortages. 

    “The department is carefully managing and monitoring usage of personal protective equipment and critical supplies to ensure we have what’s needed for this long-term operation,” Dwyer continued.

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    Responding to a call in Harlem/Photo source: NY Times

    Paramedics said that weeks ago, coronavirus calls were mostly for respiratory distress or fever. Now many of these same patients are dealing with organ failure and cardiac arrest after being sent home from the hospital. 

    One Brooklyn paramedic said:

     “We’re getting them at the point where they’re starting to decompensate. The way that it wreaks havoc in the body is almost flying in the face of everything that we know.”

    Another paramedic who had previously helped a 65 year old patient in Brooklyn was forced to tell them to stay home and call a doctor. A separate paramedic said that amidst a shortage of protective gear, they had been using the same N95 mask for days. 

    And people are doing their best to try and help. The same paramedic said that after leaving a building with her partner after tending to one of its tenants, “the building’s supervisor — noticing the pair’s worn equipment — met them downstairs and shoved new N95 masks and a can of Lysol into their arms.”

    Many healthcare workers are scared they have already been infected and have brought the virus home to their families. On March 18, three members of the Fire Department tested positive for the virus. On Friday, that number had grown to 206 people. 


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 03/29/2020 – 22:15

  • "It's Super Painful" – Bill Gates Urges 10-Week Nationwide Lockdown
    “It’s Super Painful” – Bill Gates Urges 10-Week Nationwide Lockdown

    Microsoft founder and philanthropist Bill Gates was heard on CNN Global Town Hall on Thursday (March 26) as saying six to ten weeks of lockdowns across the country is now necessary to mitigate the spread of COVID-19

    “It is super painful to drive this very high degree of social isolation I call shutdown. The middle course really isn’t there because it’s hard to say, oh, go back to the theater for a week maybe or maybe not you’ll be infected or infecting people,” Gates said.

    “Until we get the certainty we’ve hit these low numbers, you know, I doubt even if you told people that they should be buying new houses and cars and hanging out in restaurants, I doubt they’re going to want to do that. People want to protect older people,” he said. 

    “This is kind of the nightmare scenario,” he said as to what is currently unfolding across the US. As of Saturday morning, there are 105,000 confirmed virus cases and 1,711 deaths. The epicenter of the breakout is New York, with more than 46,000 cases. 

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    Gates said the response in the US was slow and chaotic. He said if the government would have “behaved a little bit like the countries that have done the best on this one” – then maybe the spread could have been suppressed. 

    He warned that the “peak” in cases and deaths is not close, indicating that further lockdowns will be needed to flatten the curve and slowdown infections to avoid hospital systems from being overwhelmed

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    “Basically, the whole country needs to do what was done in the part of China where they had these infections,” he added.

    And to Gate’s point about where the US is in the virus cycle. We noted last week that the US is in the acceleration period. 

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    Gates has been warning about a pandemic for years. Back in 2015, he told the audience at a TED Talk that his greatest fear wasn’t World War III, but rather a fast-spreading virus that would consume the world. 

    Gates was a part of The Event 201 scenario in October (months before Covid-19) that modeled an outbreak of coronavirus across the world, killing 65 million people by month 18. 

    His foundation, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, has been pouring millions of dollars into developing and distributing at-home testing kits for COVID-19.

    So what do we expect after the nationwide lockdown? Well, Harvard researchers believe “intermittent lockdowns” and “widespread surveillance” of Americans could become the norm through 2022. 


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 03/29/2020 – 21:50

  • Canada Bans Passengers Showing Virus Symptoms From Domestic Flights & Trains
    Canada Bans Passengers Showing Virus Symptoms From Domestic Flights & Trains

    Canada has over 6,243 confirmed coronvirus cases, including 64 deaths as of Sunday, which compared to the United States – at over 135,000 cases and rapidly growing – appears to be doing a much better job at fighting the spread. 

    Though nationwide transport systems, including flights and trains, are still active, Canada announced Sunday that starting Monday any passengers showing symptoms related to Covid-19 will be banned from domestic flights and trains

    Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced the new nation-wide rule from his residence in a press briefing, which reads “people showing any signs whatsoever of Covid-19 will be denied boarding on all domestic flights and intercity passenger trains,” according to Politico.

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    Prime Minister Justin Trudeau briefing reporters at his residence while working in quarantine.

    Trudea said that measures to contain the disease are “beginning to work” but still said individuals “need to continue to do what is necessary to prevent the spread of Covid-19.”

    The new measures will likely involve more invasive temperature scans and symptom monitoring checks by authorities at transport hubs. But the language of the new order puts the onus on the train and airline companies to monitor and enforce the mandate among their passengers.

    Thus far Canadians who are returning from travel abroad are under legal mandate to self-isolate for 14 days upon return.

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    Toronto Pearson International Airport, via Reuters.

    Trudea’s own wife previously tested positive for coronavirus after a trip to London, and has since been in self-isolation for two weeks, but recently announced her doctor said she was in the clear.

    Neither Trudea nor their children have shown symptoms, but over the weekend he indicated he may continue to work in a state of isolation to “set an example” for Canadians. 

    Currently Quebec is maintaining police checkpoints around the province’s major cities in order to monitor unnecessary travel, and to tell outside travelers returning to Quebec to self-quarantine upon return to their homes. Quebec has further banned gatherings of 5 people or more in order to mitigate the spread of the virus.


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 03/29/2020 – 21:25

  • The Great Madness
    The Great Madness

    Authored by The Zman,

    Has the world gone mad? It certainly seems that way to some of us. Even the most cynical never imagined the government shutting down the country for fear of a virus, but it has suddenly become the new normal. The cynical, if they thought of it at all, would have thought the opposite. Instead of a great lock down, the response would have been for the beautiful people to insulate themselves from harm, while abandoning the rest of us to the plague. Instead, we have all gone mad together.

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    Not everyone has got the fever, that is this panic fever, not the one caused by the Chinese coronavirus.

    Our world is now firmly divided into two camps.

    • There are those fully invested in the great panic over the virus and

    • there are those who look at the other camp, gobsmacked by what appears to be a general madness.

    Those in panic look at the rest of us the same way preppers look at normal people. They just assume the gods will strike us down for doubting the virus.

    Of course, the people in the skeptic camp could be the ones suffering from some form of madness that prevents them from seeing the threat. The trouble is, the great plague is not exactly lighting up the scoreboard. America has tested over 600,000 people suspected of having the virus. Over 500,000 tested negative. Of the positives, 12,000 needed hospital care. In a country of over 320 million people with 200,000 empty hospital beds at any one time, that’s not much of a crisis.

    Yet, despite the numbers, formerly sober-minded people continue to carry on as if there are bodies in the streets. Steve Sailer, a man not known for excitability, is calling this virus a great adversary of the human race. Greg Cochran has completely lost his marbles over this thing. Geneticist and HBD enthusiast Razib Khan is in hiding, convinced the end times are upon us. In fact, the whole HBD community is a click away from fleeing to Antarctica to wait out the end of civilization.

    Of course, part of the panic, a symptom of that particular virus, is a set of abracadabra phrases that have become so common they seem like something from a secret society, understood only by the initiates. The duller sorts chant about “exponential growth” while others talk about “the hospitals being overwhelmed.” That’s why we have to “flatten the curve” and “slow the spread.” These incantations are to chase away doubt and reinforce the belief that people are dying in the streets.

    The dying in the streets bit is not much of an exaggeration. A popular bit of folklore now among the panicked is some version of the anonymous ER doctor or nurse relaying how they are overwhelmed and letting people die in the hallways. This urban legend turned up in China, Washington, Italy, New York and now New Orleans. Formerly sensible people now pass these whoppers around on-line, never bothering to think that maybe they are being fed a just-so story by people seeking attention.

    One emerging aspect to the madness is the moral dimension. The Human Biodiversity (HBD) crowd seems to have been hardest hit. They spend a lot of time contemplating nature and their fellow man’s refusal to respect it. Part of what is driving them now is a sense that nature is going to finally exact some revenge. In other words, this panic is part of a strange revenge fantasy, where they are finally vindicated by biological reality. This sudden sense of moral purpose has made them immune to reason.

    Another aspect to this general panic, unrelated to the virus itself, is a different type of revenge fantasy. Many people are cheering the collapse of the economy and civil life on the mistaken belief that what emerges from the rubble will have them at the top of the social hierarchy. This is a phenomenon shared across the political spectrum. It seems to be most popular with young people unhappy with the status quo and far too caught up in purge fantasies to be reached with facts and reason.

    Probably the most salient aspect to this panic is the role of women. As has been noted too many times to count, the West is now a gynocracy. It is not a matriarchy, as women have stopped bearing children and stopped caring about children. Look around and you see childless women in positions of authority all over the West. In fact, these are women who reached their status by rejecting every aspect of womanhood. The West is now a world run by middle-aged childless women.

    Anyone who has been around women in a crisis has observed a strange phenomenon among childless adult females. Some switch gets flipped in a crisis where their protective instincts get misdirected at the adults in the room. This part of their nature was never allowed to mature in the raising of children, so it comes bursting forth in an incoherent desire to help when their help is not needed. They become like mother ducks loudly herding the brood to safety.

    For a society run by such women, every crisis is met with demands that everyone shelter in place. Notice how over the last few decades that public officials no longer call for volunteers or tell people to pitch in and work together. Such independent action violates the frightened female’s sense of duty to her brood. Instead, mild weather events now close the schools and force people to work from home. This virus scare is every middle-aged women’s Hunger Games moment.

    Mass panics are a known phenomenon.

    The general panic that took place in France between July 22 and August 6 1789 is known as The Great Fear. It was a period of rural unrest, driven by both a grain shortage and rumors of an aristocrats’ “famine plot” to starve the peasants. The exact reason for this panic is in dispute. Ergotism is a favorite reason for those with a certain sense of humor, but most historians consider it one of the primary causes of the French Revolution.

    At some point, the bloom comes off this lock-down rose once people start to feel the real cost of listening to madmen. People will remember that the same folks who swore Boris and Natasha had used their mind control devise to install Trump in the White House are the many of the same people peddling this panic. Necessity will force a lot of people to stop going along with what they have suspected from the start is nothing more than a mass panic. Soon, this all comes to an end.

    Like the Great Fear, the Great Madness will leave a mark, or at least it should leave a mark on our society. You never can be sure about these things, as the West seems to be unusually immune to learning from these events. Two centuries ago The Great Fear meant the end of the feudal order and eventually a revolution. It was not the sole cause of the revolution, maybe not the main cause. It was certainly an example of how the old order was no longer able to maintain order.

    It is too soon to know what this panic means for us. Perhaps it further undermines the legitimacy of the system and the people that profit from it. Perhaps it sets off social changes that slowly transform our society in ways we have yet to imagine. Maybe the fever breaks and this event, like the Russian hoax, gets forgotten.

    Given what most likely awaits on the other side of the lock-down, it is hard to imagine this great madness being forgotten. There’s always a price to be paid for following madmen.


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 03/29/2020 – 21:00

  • CFTC Quietly Bails Out Capital One
    CFTC Quietly Bails Out Capital One

    Last Friday, around the time of the quad-witching collapse which sent the S&P to levels not seen since Trump’s inauguration, amid the flurry of headlines bombarding shell-shocked traders, was one that was particularly ominous if bizarrely incomplete. Shortly after the close, Bloomberg blasted the following headline:

    • CFTC PROVIDING RELIEF TO LARGE U.S. BANK ACTIVE IN OIL, GAS

    There was little additional information to go with the report, aside from the CFTC saying it would temporarily exempt a U.S. bank from a requirement to register as a “Major Swap Participant” even though its growing energy swaps exposure would technically require it to do so by the end of the next quarter, and since the bank was not named, traders’ attention quickly shifted to whatever the next crisis du jour, or rather du minute was.

    However, late last week, Reuters reported citing two sources, that the bank in question was Virginia-based Capital One, best known for questionable retail lending and cheesy credit card commercials starting Samuel L Jackson.

    So what exactly happened? According to a spokesman for the CFTC, the commodities regulator issued a waiver to protect the bank and its energy clients from “undue disruption,” given the unprecedented market conditions over the past month amid the coronavirus outbreak.

    “We have actively encouraged all market participants to identify regulatory relief or other assistance that may be needed to help support robust, orderly and liquid markets in the face of this pandemic,” the spokesman said, implicitly admitting that the CFTC intervention amounted to what was an effective bailout of the bank.

    At the core of the issue were plunging oil prices, which ended up having a margin call effect on the bank’s swaps exposure; and since Capital One’s waiver lasts until Sept. 30, if energy prices remain low or the bank’s exposure remains above the threshold, it will register as a swap participant or make business adjustments, the CFTC said on Friday.

    And here is why anyone who currently has a deposit account at CapitalOne may consider quietly moving the money elsewhere: according to Reuters, the CFTC designation entails a number of complex and costly reporting and compliance obligations, which the CFTC spokesman said could hurt the institution’s ability to keep lending.

    In short, CapitalOne made a terrible trade, betting via derivatives that oil would not plunge to where it is now – at 17 year lows – and only CFTC intervention prevented a margin call of unknown magnitude from being sent to Capital One’s corner office. Which is surprising considering that the bank is a relatively small player in the energy lending and financing business, with energy loans accounting for just 1.4% of its total loan book, according to its filings.

    As part of that business, Capital One enters into commodity swaps with its commercial oil and gas clients to help them mitigate the risk of energy price swings and the related borrowing risks. Typically, those trades do not bring Capital One’s swaps exposure anywhere close to the CFTC’s registration threshold, according to the CFTC’s Friday notice.

    But the 50% plunge in crude oil prices caused by the coronavirus and a flood of supply by top producers has seen its exposure on those swaps balloon, putting it on course to hit the threshold by the end of this month, the CFTC said.

    As Reuters details, the threshold kicks in if a bank has $1 billion in daily average aggregate commodity swap exposure that is not secured by collateral, such as cash margin. Which, it appears, was the case with CapitalOne.

    Following the 2007-2009 financial crisis during which several major institutions were toppled by their derivatives exposure, Congress created a slew of swap trading laws to reduce systemic risk and increase the visibility of the market. However, the ad hoc decision to grant a waiver in this case has sparked worries that regulators are going too easy on banks in a bid to prop up lending, exposing them to more risk down the road if energy prices do not rebound.

    In effect, the CFTC allowed CapitalOne to incur even greater ongoing losses, while buying it a quarter’s worth of time, in hopes that oil rebounds. But what happens if instead of rebounding, oil keeps grinding lower and, as we warned earlier today, actually goes negative as oil storage space runs out? The cumulative exposure facing CapitalOne would be many billions, and could potentially render the bank insolvent.

    That said, COF is not the only one: across the board, regulators have scrambled to grant regulatory relief, worried banks will pull back from lending and exacerbate corporate liquidity stress.

    “The priority of the CFTC is not to prop up an ailing sector. It’s to ensure that the market is protected from risks,” said Tyson Slocum, a director at government watchdog group Public Citizen and a member of the CFTC’s Energy and Environmental Markets Advisory Committee.

    But then, in an surprising and sobering admission that the CFTC did in fact participate in a quiet bailout of CapitalOne – because had the bank announced it was facing a $1+ billion margin call one can imagine what its depositors would do – Slocum added he was worried the agency would give exemptions to other banks caught flatfooted by the market turmoil.

    “I’ve got concerns with over-leveraged banks in the oil and gas sector. I don’t want this to spread across the financial sector.”

    Dear Tyson: by letting CapitalOne get away with it, you have once again propagated moral hazard and guaranteed that this will spread across the financial sector, as bank after bank comes begging for a similar stealthy bailout, all the while doing nothing but praying that oil miraculously rebounds in the next three months. But what if it doesn’t, and who will tell CapitalOne’s depositors that they are now sitting on a ticking time bomb? This guy?

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    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 03/29/2020 – 20:37

  • Gold Is Now "Unobtanium"
    Gold Is Now “Unobtanium”

    By now it becoming clear to many that demand for precious metals, as the world ‘turns’, is far outpacing supply as major gold suppliers and sellers exclaim “there is no gold.”

    One glance at APMEX pages and two things are immediately clear:

    1) There is no gold or silver….

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    2) And if there is, the premium for physical gold and silver over paper is massive…

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    Put in context, this 100% premium for silver is shocking (h/t @JanGold_)

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    And the mainstream media is starting to notice as DollarCollapse.com’s John Rubino points out, The Wall Street Journal just published the kind of article gold bugs dream of… Here’s an excerpt:

    Coronavirus Sparks a Global Gold Rush

    Epic shortage spooks doomsday preppers and bankers alike; ‘Unaffordium and unobtanium.’

    It’s an honest-to-God doomsday scenario and the ultimate doomsday-prepper market is a mess.

    As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, investors and bankers are encountering severe shortages of gold bars and coins. Dealers are sold out or closed for the duration. Credit Suisse Group AG, which has minted its own bars since 1856, told clients this week not to bother asking. In London, bankers are chartering private jets and trying to finagle military cargo planes to get their bullion to New York exchanges.

    It’s getting so bad that Wall Street bankers are asking Canada for help. The Royal Canadian Mint has been swamped with requests to ramp up production of gold bars that could be taken down to New York.

    The price of gold futures rose about 9% to roughly $1,620 a troy ounce this week and neared a seven-year high. Only on a handful of occasions since 2000 have gold prices risen more in a single week, including immediately after Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy in September 2008.

    “When people think they can’t get something, they want it even more,” says George Gero, 83, who’s been trading gold for more than 50 years, now at RBC Wealth Management in New York. “Look at toilet paper.”

    Worth its weight in Purell

    Gold has been prized for thousands of years and today goes into items ranging from jewelry to dental crowns to electronics. For decades, the value of paper money was pinned to gold; tons of it sat in Fort Knox to reassure Americans their dollars were worth something. Today they just have to trust. President Nixon unpegged the dollar from gold in 1971.

    Gold is popular with survivalists and conspiracy theorists but it is also a sensible addition to investment portfolios because its price tends to be relatively stable. It is especially in-demand during economic crises as a shield against inflation. When the Federal Reserve floods the economy with cash, like it is doing now, dollars can get less valuable.

    “Gold is the one money that can’t be printed,” said Roy Sebag, CEO of Goldmoney Inc., which has one of the world’s largest private stashes, worth about $2 billion.

    The disruptions this week pushed the gold futures price, on the New York exchange, as much as $70 an ounce above the price of physical gold in London. Typically, the two trade within a few dollars of each other.

    That gulf sparked a high-stakes game of chicken in the New York futures market this week. Sharp-eyed traders started snapping up physical delivery contracts, figuring banks would have trouble finding enough gold to make good and they would be able to squeeze them for cash. That set off a scramble by banks.

    Goldmoney’s Mr. Sebag said bankers were offering him $100 or more per ounce over the London price to get their hands on some of his New York gold.

    What’s more, there is limited new supply. Mines in countries such as Peru and South Africa are shut down because of the coronavirus. Once-busy Swiss refineries that turn raw metal into gold bars closed earlier this week as the country’s coronavirus cases neared 10,000.

    David Smith owns a wristwatch business in northern England and said Tuesday his bullion dealers weren’t taking any more orders. He has been scouring social media for individuals who might sell to him.

    “You can’t really get physical gold and silver anywhere at the moment,” he said.

    He began investing personally in metals a few years ago after watching videos from Mike Maloney, creator of the website goldsilver.com. Like other online dealers, the site currently has a notice saying products are back-ordered up to 12 weeks and that there is a $1,000 delivery order minimum.

    The title of Mr. Maloney’s latest podcast: “Unaffordium and unobtanium.” (The latter has popped up in the plots of science fiction movies).

    To sum up:

    A pillar of the mainstream financial media just acknowledged gold’s multi-millennia role as a store of value, quoted someone calling it “money,” and noted that since the world left the gold standard, we “just have to trust” governments to maintain their currencies.

    The article quotes the CEO of GoldMoney and GoldSilver’s Mike Maloney, and calls gold “a sensible addition to investment portfolios.”

    It mentions the divergence between paper and physical prices and attributes it to the same kind of buying panic that has emptied stores of toilet paper. “When people think they can’t get something, they want it even more.”

    Now pretend you’re an editor at a city newspaper or regional magazine and you’ve just finished reading the above article. What do you do? You immediately call in one of your finance reporters and tell them to look into this “gold shortage” thing.

    So prepare for millions of anxious people to get their first exposure to the gold story, just as the supply dries up.


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 03/29/2020 – 20:35

  • "The Scope For Pain Is Immense" – China's Consumer Default Tsunami Has Started
    “The Scope For Pain Is Immense” – China’s Consumer Default Tsunami Has Started

    One month ago we reported that “China Faces Financial Armageddon With 85% Of Businesses Set To Run Out Of Cash In 3 Months“, in which we explained that while China’s giant state-owned SOEs will likely have enough of a liquidity lifeblood to last them for 2-3 quarters, it is the country’s small businesses that are facing a head on collision with an iceberg, because according to the Nikkei, over 85% of small businesses – which employ 80% of China’s population – expect to run out of cash within three months, and a third expect the cash to be all gone within a month.

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    To be sure, the stakes could not be higher: These smaller employers account for 99.8% of registered companies in China and employ 79.4% of workers. They contribute more than 60% of gross domestic product and, for the government, more than 50% of tax revenue. In short: they are the beating heart of China’s economy.

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    In short, should this default tsunami start, not only will China’s economy collapse, but China’s $40 trillion financial system will disintegrate, as it is suddenly flooded with trillions in bad loans.

    * * *

    Well, it is now one month later, and as we feared, and as the SCMP reports, “a global consumer default wave is just getting started in China” as overdue credit-card debt in China has soared by about 50% in February, while researchers at the Peterson Institute warn (as we did in February) that what is happening now in China is “a preview of what we should expect throughout the world.”

    Take the case of Zhang Chunzi – like millions of people around the world, she borrowed money she thought she would be able to repay before the coronavirus changed everything. Now laid off from her job at an apparel exporter in Hangzhou, the prosperous capital of east China’s Zhejiang province, the 23-year-old is missing payments on 12,000 yuan (US$1,700) of debt on her credit card and an online lending platform operated by Ant Financial.

    “I’m late on all the bills and there’s no way I can pay my debt in full,” Zhang said.

    Zhang’s story is playing out in similar ways across China (and soon, across the world), where the virus outbreak has been taking lives and ravaging the economy for more than three months. As Covid-19 works its way through the rest of Asia, Europe and the Americas – forcing countries into lockdown, driving up unemployment and pummeling small-business owners – analysts say it is only a matter of time before stretched households globally start to default on their loans.

    To be sure, the early indicators from China are not pretty. Overdue credit-card debt in February rose by about 50% from a year earlier, according to executives at two banks who asked not to be named. Qudian, a Beijing-based online lender, said its delinquency ratio jumped to a staggering 20% in February, from 13% at the end of last year.

    For some the shock from the economic slowdown is so big, they have had no choice but to hit pause. China Merchants Bank, one of the country’s biggest providers of consumer credit, said this month that it “pressed the pause button” on its credit-card business after a significant increase in past-due loans as an estimated 8 million people in China lost their jobs in February.

    “These issues in China are a preview of what we should expect throughout the world,” said Peterson Institute for International Economics research fellow Martin Chorzempa.

    And while the extent of the squeeze on consumers and their lenders will depend on the effectiveness of government efforts to contain the virus and shore up economies, “the scope for pain is immense” the SCMP warns ominously.

    Needless to say, what is coming across the globe is unprecedented: household debt-to-GDP ratios in countries including France, Switzerland, New Zealand and Nigeria have never been higher, according to a January report from the Institute of International Finance.  In Australia, which has the highest household debt levels among G20 nations, the country’s largest lender said on Thursday that its financial assistance lines were receiving eight times the normal call volume.

    A similar surge in queries has flooded lenders in the United States, where credit-card balances rose to an unprecedented US$930 billion last year and almost 3.3 million people filed for jobless benefits during the week ended March 21 – quadruple the previous record.

    However, not even the US has seen as big a jump in consumer borrowing in recent years than China, where household debt including mortgages soared to a record 55 trillion yuan (almost $8 trillion) last year. That figure has nearly doubled since 2015, thanks to a housing boom and the rise of online lenders like Ant Financial. While the firm’s risk models rely on reams of payments data, they have yet to be tested by a major economic downturn. Many consumers who take out these short-term, high-interest loans – typically funded by banks through Ant’s Alipay smartphone app – have minimal income and virtually no credit history.

    “Since 2015, banks have kept lowering their criteria to compete,” said Zhang Shuaishuai, an analyst at China International Capital. “The virus outbreak accelerated their exposure to risks. It will only get worse if unemployment climbs further.”

    Meanwhile, consumer default rates at some banks have already increased to as high as 4%, from about 1% before the outbreak, according to Zhao Jian, head of Atlantis Financial Research, who cited a survey of lenders. An executive at a major Chinese bank said his firm was taking steps to tighten credit card loans or even drop some clients after seeing a rapid increase in overdue payments.

    With corporate delinquencies rising as well, banks could face a 5.2 trillion yuan surge in total non-performing loans and an unprecedented 39 per cent slump in profits this year, according to a worst-case scenario outlined by UBS. As reported last week, China’s industrial profits just crashed the most on record, plunging -38.3% Y/Y, and far worse from the -6.3%Y/Y decline in December.

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    Some hope that massive government stimulus will help ease the blow. Most countries have announced plans for economic support measures in recent months, including a US$2 trillion package in the US that will provide direct payments to lower- and middle-income Americans. Some of the biggest US lenders have pledged to offer grace periods for mortgage borrowers affected by the crisis.

    In China, authorities have flooded the financial system with liquidity and encouraged banks to step up their lending to small businesses that employ about 80 per cent of the nation’s workforce. While most banks have yet to offer debt relief to consumers outside those living in cities like Wuhan that were hit especially hard by the virus, UBS predicts China’s government will do more if needed to help people find jobs and pay their bills. Bloomberg Economics estimates that about 85 per cent of the economy was back online in the week ending March 20, excluding the original virus epicentre in Hubei province, although we believe those numbers are strongly gamed to represent to the world that the economy has rebounded when the reality is a mirror image.

    That said, as UBS analyst May Yan correctly notes, “a large scale increase in unemployment, and resulting high delinquencies on retail loans won’t be tolerated by authorities as social stability is their bottom line,” although it is unclear what it can do to preserve stability if tens of millions lost their jobs.

    Of course, stimulus is unlikely to tide over everyone, particularly in places like China where household finances are stretched like never before. The country’s consumer debt-to-income ratio surged to 92% at the end of 2018, from 30% a decade ago, surpassing that of Germany and closing in on levels in the US and Japan, according to IIF.

    The risk is that a prolonged economic slump and weak real estate market will force more people to renege on their loans.
    That moment has already arrived for Yin Weijun, a 27-year-old who recently lost his job as a hotel chef in Wenzhou, in Zhejiang.

    “I’m like a refugee from debt,” he said. “I had never missed a payment in my life, but the virus left me with no choice. Even if they give me an extra one or two months, I still can’t pay.”

     


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 03/29/2020 – 20:15

  • COVID-19 Is Saving Lives
    COVID-19 Is Saving Lives

    Authored by Prasanthi Ramakrishnan, Siddhartha Sanghi, David Schwartzman and Hayley Wabiszewski

    The United States death toll from the novel coronavirus has steadily increased in the last few days, with over 2, 200 COVID- 19 deaths, and more than half of the deaths in the last three days alone. The death toll is expected to only get worse in the coming weeks as cases increase and the capacity of the health care system is stretched. However, one silver lining might be that the death toll could be lower than anticipated due to individuals changing their behavior during the coronavirus pandemic. We use CDC data (detailed below) to analyze weekly US deaths over the last five years (as accessed on March 28 , 2020 ). Figure 1 shows weekly deaths for all ages. For the year 2020, we have data through week 10, or through the week of March 7, 2020.

    There is a clear strong downward sloping trend in the number of deaths at all ages for the current year as compared to the previous 5 years. Moreover, the current year appears to be a break in trend from the previous 5 years. Comparing the difference of the previous 5 -year average with 2020 deaths through March 7 and we find that for week 10, there were close to 9000 fewer deaths – this is nearly a 20 percent decrease in the number of the deaths! The decrease is most evident after week 7 (week ending February 15 , 2020 ).

    Since coronavirus concerns have increased as US spread has become more evident, the decline in deaths in recent weeks suggests that the fall in deaths might be an ‘un-intended’ consequence of the COVID- 19 due to people adjusting their behavior to avoid getting and spreading COVID- 19. Comparing the deviation with the COVID- 19 confirmed cases in the US, we see a high negative correlation of 0.9271. One suggestive mechanism is that as people stay at home more, crime and accidental deaths may decrease. As the CDC continues to update the data, the data for the week ending March 14 and March 21, 2020 will be useful in understanding this behavioral aspect – however, after that, the behavioral effect may be harder to disentangle, as deaths due to coronavirus will become more prominent in the aggregate data.  

    The mechanism we propose should primarily affect the younger population, as the younger population tends to be more mobile, and the older population is more likely to die of other natural causes. This is exactly what we observe when breaking up these trends by age group. We see that the deviation from the trend is the starkest for children ( < 18 years) – there is a decline of 297 deaths, which is a 76 percent decrease! At the point through which data is available, most schools had not yet shut down and even so, we observe this large decrease. We observe a similar but smaller decline of 27 percent in the age group of 18 to 65. This is suggestive of the possibility that as coronavirus mitigation measures become more widespread, non-coronavirus deaths may decrease further.

    Data Sources

    We take total weekly deaths in the US by three age groups from CDC FluView data 1 . The data provides weekly total national deaths and the deaths caused by Pneumonia and Influenza. We take the national data from 2015 week 1 to 2020 week 10 , i.e. the week ending March 7 2020 , since week 11 numbers were not complete at the time of our access. National deaths can be sliced into three age groups: 0 – 18 , 18 – 65 and 65 +. The dataset also has state-level deaths, but state data was not available for week 8 – 10 , so we were unable to use that for our analysis 2 . We plan to include state-level deaths and data for later weeks as this becomes available. We also use total number of COVID- 19 cases reported by Johns Hopkins for our analysis.

    Ongoing Work

    We will be updating the figures as more data becomes available. In ongoing work, we are exploring ways to de-compose reductions in mortality attributed to lower accident and crime rates as well as other ‘un-intended consequences’.  

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    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 03/29/2020 – 19:55

  • WHO Issues Statement On Taiwan After Rude Official Shills For China
    WHO Issues Statement On Taiwan After Rude Official Shills For China

    Since the very beginning of the Chinese coronavirus epidemic, the World Health Organization has been shilling for Beijing.

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    From WHO director Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus showering the CCP with praise for their early handling of the disease (by hunting down doctors who told the truth, and outright lying about its transmissibility), the WHO has proven themselves to be loyal lapdogs to the communist regime – spreading uncorrected Chinese propaganda (which Twitter is just fine with). Read more about WHO and China here.

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    To that end, a journalist with Hong Kong broadcaster RTHK was rudely hung-up on after asking WHO official Bruce Aylward – who led a mission to Wuhan – if the organization might give Taiwan a membership.

    First, Aylward said he couldn’t hear the question – asking the reporter to move on. Then, he disconnected the line after she said she wanted to hear more about Taiwan.

    When they were reconnected, Aylward dodged another direct question about Taiwan – taking China’s stance with his answer while complimenting Beijing and withing Hong Kong good luck.

    In response, Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu highlighted Aylward’s shilling in a now-viral tweet.

    After millions of views, the WHO issued a statement clarifying that WHO membership is up to WHO states, not the staff – and that Taiwan has kept COVID-19 numbers relatively low, and should be learned from.

    “WHO is taking lessons learned from all areas, including Taiwanese health authorities, to share best practices globally,” said WHO spokesman Tarik Jasarevic in an email to Bloomberg.

    The WHO has a point of contact with Taiwan to receive information, and the country is involved in epidemiology training. Two Taiwanese public health experts took part in a research forum the WHO organized in February.

    WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has repeatedly backed China, even as Beijing was criticized by other countries and organizations for being slow to respond initially to the outbreak there, and for resisting cooperation with international disease-trackers. After weeks of wrangling, Aylward’s WHO response team gained access to Hubei province, where the virus first erupted. Bloomberg

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    In February, Aylward said “China was the first line of defense to prevent the international spread of this virus, because they feared and felt the responsibility to protect the world from this virus,” adding “Other countries should think about whether they apply something, not necessarily through lockdowns, but the same rigorous approach.”

    Could these people be any more transparent?

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    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 03/29/2020 – 19:35

  • Goldman's Buyback Desk: Companies Representing $190BN In Buybacks, 25% Of Total, Have Already Suspended Repurchases
    Goldman’s Buyback Desk: Companies Representing $190BN In Buybacks, 25% Of Total, Have Already Suspended Repurchases

    As discussed last weekend, 2018 and 2019 were record years for buybacks, for one main reason: Trump’s tax reform allowed companies to repatriate over a trillion dollars parked offshore at nominal tax rates, which were then used to repurchase stocks, resulting in the bizarre market condundrum of record outflows even as the S&P hit all time highs, as all investor outflows were offset by companies buying back their own stock.

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    However, even before the coronacrisis, we warned that buybacks had sharply slowed down at the start of the year even as all investors how plowed all in stocks.

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    But if buybacks were merely slowing at the start of the year, after the recent collapse in the market, buybacks are effectively dead as a driver of stock prices for the foreseeable future.

    As Goldman’s David Kostinw writes in his latest weekly kickstart, according to Goldman’s Buyback Desk, “nearly 50 US companies have suspended existing share repurchase authorizations in the past two weeks, representing $190 billion of buybacks or nearly 25% of the 2019 total.”

    Worse, as Kostin warns, reduced cash flows and select restrictions mandated as part of the Phase 3 fiscal legislation “suggest more suspensions are likely.” And since buybacks have represented the single largest source of US equity demand in each of the last several years…

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    … Goldman believes “higher volatility and lower equity valuations are among the likely consequences of reduced buybacks.”

    Which brings us to the $64 trillion question: can buybacks still provide support to equities?

    According to Goldman, with corporate fundamentals deteriorating, share repurchases are likely to be reduced this year, providing less support to equity demand:

    Our US strategy team has found the fluctuations in profit growth are a key driver of buyback growth (Exhibit 13). Our strategists expect S&P 500 EPS to decline 33% in 2020 (with a -123% YoY growth in Q2) and 45% in Europe. Dividends, which are usually less volatile than buybacks, are already pricing large cuts for this year. Dividend swaps are pricing a 17% and 21% S&P 500 cut, and a 38% and 18% EURO STOXX 50 cut for 2020 and 2021 respectively

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    In short: the buyback bonanza is over for the foreseeable future.


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 03/29/2020 – 19:15

  • White House Extends Coronavirus Guidelines Until April 30, Trump Expects "Peak" In About 2 Weeks
    White House Extends Coronavirus Guidelines Until April 30, Trump Expects “Peak” In About 2 Weeks

    Update (1855T): Trump’s press conference continued well into the evening, with the president feuding in classic Trump style with CNN reporters asking him questions about a rumor that Trump had withheld aid to certain governors who didn’t show him sufficient respect.

    After a few minutes of jousting, Trump slammed CNN as “fake news”, to which a reporter replied “we’re not fake news”, prompting Trump to spout “yes you are, sit down.”

    It was an amusing episode.

    Asked about the news networks not wanting to cover Trump’s daily press briefings, Trump scoffed, and slammed the media “we’re getting the word about it…and a lot of people aren’t…they should be happy about it but they’re not.” Trump then praised Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx. “They’ve been fighting this stuff their whole lives…they don’t want to be stars…the American public they should be the decider…we have Monday Night Football-type ratings…and that’s from the New York Times…and they’re not honest people but that’s okay…that’s what they said.”

    “When they don’t want the president of the United States to have a voice…you’re not talking about Democracy any longer.”

    *   *   *

    Update (1824ET): Trump has offered a few more thoughts on why he isn’t releasing some 10,000 ventilators to states like New York and Louisiana (states that, Trump’s critics complain, are governed by Democrats). Trump said the government is only holding on to the ventilators for now until the crisis arrives, That apparently leaves room for the government to dole them out to the states that need them in the coming days.

    And of course, Trump said he spoke with some of the most respected restaurateurs in the country, and they apparently reminded him that they can’t stay closed forever without significantly more help from the government – or they’re all going to go out of business. As Trump said, he wants to make sure these restaurants “get moving”…but not until after April 30.

    Trump also claimed that Humana and Cigna agreed to waive all costs – including copays – for coronavirus-related treatments. “It’s a lot of money they’re waiving,” Trump said, during the Q&A, and said “yeah, I do” when asked if he was calling on other insurers to do the same thing. “This is about death,” Trump said. “I want to thank Cigna and Humana.”

    Trump also repeatedly insisted that he now believes the “peak” of the US outbreak will arrive in two weeks which, at the current rate, means millions of cases will have been diagnosed by then.

    When asked about why he “threatened” to quarantine New York, Connecticut and New Jersey yesterday, Trump responded with an aggravated denial, with Trump claiming that professionals brought the idea to him, and that he ultimately decided not to do it. “Now we did an advisory, it’s a strong advisory…I think we did a great thing…all I did yesterday was I said we were looking in to it and by the end of the evening I said ‘we’ve decided to go with the advisory’.” Trump said.

    “I don’t want to have to give them out then take them back and move them someplace else…we need to move them quickly,” Trump said.

    When asked why Florida has had more of its requests for ventilators approved than states like Massachusetts and New York, Trump responded that all states have been taken care of “Florida has been taken care of, Michigan has been taken care of”…Trump said, even though he has had a high-profile feud with the Democratic female governor of Michigan. Massachusetts, meanwhile, is governed by a moderate Republican.

    Trump then went on a tirade about how most states have been “very happy” with the White House’s handling and will be “amazed at what they will be able to get” even citing his relationship with John Bel Edwards, “a Democrat if that’s what you’re getting at” in Louisiana and other governors from the south to the northeast. Trump added the deployment of the hospital ships and the Army Corp of Engineers and the National Guard are doing a lot, like opening a hospital in New York City at the Javits Center.

    *   *   *

    Update (1815ET): President Trump assured the public that his administration would undo a provision in his tax reform law eliminating writeoffs for entertainment, allowing, as Trump put it, “companies to send people back to restaurants”. It’s unclear how this would help, exactly, and when it would happen.

    More importantly, Trump seemed to back away from his push to bring the country back on-line by Easter by saying he would extend the guideline through April 30, the end of April, and roughly three weeks later than the April 12 Easter guideline,

    Trump also said the US has ordered dozens of new ventilators, but he also said the federal government still has 10,000 ventilators that it needs to keep on hand for an emergency in case, for example, Louisiana has a terrible problem (which it does, as Trump acknowledged). We suspect this nonsensical remarks where Trump offers no explanation for withholding these ventilators from the states, which could place lives at risk.

    *   *   *

    Update (1715ET): Trump just bumped the start time to 530pmET, in typical Trump fashion.

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    With the number of new cases and deaths ballooning at a surprisingly rapid pace across the US (but especially in New York, the nation’s biggest hot spot), President Trump and the White House task force (led by VP Mike Pence DHHS Secretary Alex Azar, Dr. Birx, Dr. Fauci, Dr. Adams and the rest) are holding their daily press briefing at 5pmET, just an hour before futures open.

    The event will reportedly take place in the White House Rose Garden.

    Watch live below:


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 03/29/2020 – 19:14

  • Oil +Crashes Below $20, Stocks Drop, Gold Pops As Trump Extends Lockdown
    Oil +Crashes Below $20, Stocks Drop, Gold Pops As Trump Extends Lockdown

    After plunging into Friday’s close, US equity futures markets are extending losses at the open after President Trump extended the virus guidelines (lockdown) until April 30th.

    Dow futures have erased most of Thursday’s surge gains…

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    But oil was the big mover as WTI plunged as much as 7.5% to a $19 handle…

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    That is the lowest since early 2002…

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    The kingdom said on Friday that it hadn’t had any contact with Moscow about output cuts or on enlarging the OPEC+ alliance of producers. Russia also doubled down, with Deputy Energy Minister Pavel Sorokin saying oil at $25 a barrel is unpleasant, but not a catastrophe for Moscow.

    Bonds are bid…

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    And gold is rallying modestly…

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    We’re gonna need more Fed largesse… stat


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 03/29/2020 – 19:01

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 29th March 2020

  • German State Finance Minister Found Dead
    German State Finance Minister Found Dead

    The body of Thomas Schäfer – finance minister of the German state of Hesse, was found next to high-speed train tracks on Saturday morning in the town of Hochheim, located between Frankfurt and Mainz, according to DW, citing local police.

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    The remains of Schäfer, 54, were initially unable to be identified due to the extent of the injuries after witnesses reported the body. His death has been ruled a suicide by police.

    According to media in the state of Hesse, the 54-year-old regularly appeared in public in recent days, for example, to inform the public about financial assistance during the coronavirus crisis. Schäfer had been finance minister of Hesse for almost 10 years

    The state premier of Hesse, Volker Bouffier, said in a statement Saturday that the state’s leadership has received the news with “sadness and disbelief.” –DW

    “We are all shocked and can hardly believe,” he died “so suddenly and unexpectedly” said Bouffier, adding “Our sincere condolences go to his closest relatives.”

    On Thursday, “Schäfer, together with Economics Minister Tarek Al-Wazir (Greens), explained how the government wants to support the more than 200,000 small entrepreneurs and solo self-employed in the country who fear for their existence due to the corona pandemic,” according to WELT.

    A bailout of 8.5 billion euros is opened and the debt brake, which Schäfer had always defended, is relaxed. The Mittelhesse from Biedenkopf near Marburg was very worried, that was obvious. The country and the whole world were facing “unforeseen challenges,” he said, and that tackling this “task of the century” would take several generations.

    But he also tried to relieve fears: The country would help quickly and unbureaucratically, Schäfer promised. “The fight against the corona crisis will not fail with money.” –WELT (translated)

    He leaves behind a wife, a nine-year-old son and a twelve-year-old daughter.

    Schäfer isn’t the only high-profile German to meet his end on train tracks.

    In 2009, 74-year-old billionaire Adolf Merckle committed suicide after pushing his business empire to the edge of ruin with a speculative bet on Volkswagen stock that went wrong. He was found dead on railroad tracks near his villa in the southern German hamlet of Blaubeuren.

    Merckle lost hundreds of millions of euros after he was “caught in a brief but ferocious speculative riptide linked to a campaign by Porsche, the sports car manufacturer, to seize control of Volkswagen,” reported the New York Times at the time. As a result, he was facing a massive liquidation of his empire to cover the bad bet.


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 03/29/2020 – 01:33

  • The Propaganda Of Terror And Fear: A Lesson From Recent History
    The Propaganda Of Terror And Fear: A Lesson From Recent History

    Authored by Dr Piers Robinson, Co-Director Organisation for Propaganda Studies,  via Off-Guardian.org,

    The ongoing and unfolding reactions to the Coronavirus look set to have wide-ranging and long-lasting effect on politics, society and economics. The drive to close down all activities is extraordinary as are the measures being promoted to isolate people from each other.

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    The deep-rooted fear of contagious disease, hardwired into the collective consciousness by historical events such as the ‘Black/Bubonic Plague’ and maintained through popular culture (e.g. the Hollywood movies Outbreak and Contagion), means that people are without question highly susceptible to accepting extreme emergency measures whether or not such measures are rational or justified. The New York Times called for America to be put on a war footing in order to deal with Corona whilst former Army General Stanley McChrystal has been invoking his 9/11 experience in order to prescribe lessons for today’s leaders.

    At the same time, political actors are fully aware that these conditions of fear and panic provide a critical opportunity that can be exploited in order to pursue political, economic and societal objectives. It is very likely, however, that the dangers posed by the potential exploitation of Corona for broader political, economic and societal objectives latter far outweigh the immediate threat to life and health from the virus. A lesson from recent history is instructive here.

    9/11 AND THE GLOBAL ‘WAR ON TERROR’

    The events of September 11 2001 represent a key moment in contemporary history. The destruction of three skyscrapers in New York after the impact of two airliners and an attack on the Pentagon, killing around 3000 civilians, shocked both American and global publics. The horror of seeing aircraft being flown into buildings, followed by the total destruction of three high rise buildings within a matter of seconds, and the spectre of a shadowy band of Islamic fundamentalists (Al Qaeda) having pulled off such devastating attacks, gripped the imagination of many in the Western world.

    It was in this climate of paranoia and fear that extraordinary policies were implemented. The USA Patriot Act led to significant civil liberty restrictions whilst the mass surveillance of the digital environment became normalized.

    In the United States torture was authorized in the name of preventing terrorism whilst the Guantanamo Bay facility in Cuba became a site in which accused individuals have been held without any adequate legal protection or due process.

    Remarkably, the individual accused of leading the alleged 9/11 plot, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, who ‘confessed’ to CIA interrogators after being ‘waterboarded’ 183 times, has recently received his trial date, set for January 11 2021 and 20 years after 9/11. Civil liberty restrictions, mass surveillance and torture were only a sub-strand of the major war-fighting-policy that was enabled by 9/11.

    Presented at the time as America’s ‘New Pearl Harbour’, 9/11 provided the conditions for a series of major regime-change wars which persist until today.

    Critically, these wars have not been primarily about combatting ‘Islamic fundamentalist terrorism’/Al Qaeda, but rather attacking ‘enemy’ states. Indeed, the evidence that the 9/11 event and the alleged threat of ‘Islamic fundamentalist’ was then exploited in order to pursue a geo-politically motivated set of regime-change wars which had little connection to the purported Al Qaeda threat is well established.

    Former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO, Wesley Clark, famously went public in 2006/7 stating that immediately after 9/11 he had been informed that the US was intending to attack seven countries within five years including Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Somalia, Sudan and Iran. Clark stated:

    He [the Joint Staff officer] picked up a piece of paper, he said I just got this down from upstairs, from the Secretary of Defence’s office today, and he said this is a memo that describes how we are gonna take out seven countries in five years, starting with Iraq and then Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and finishing off Iran.

    Clark’s claims have recently been corroborated by retired Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson (chief of staff to Colin Powell and Iraq War planner) who stated that he had actually seen the same plans Clark was referring to many months prior to 9/11:

    My first briefing in the Pentagon from an Air Force three-star general in February of 2001 I almost fell of my chair because their briefing included on the one hand the Air Force’s ability to take out 80 to 90% of the targets in North Korea in the first few hours of an aerial strike on that country to hey when we do Iraq we’re gonna do Syria and Lebanon and we’re going to do Iran and maybe Egypt … but this was more than that [just contingency planning] Wes Clark is right they had these plans they were going to go right through all these countries that they felt threatened Israel all through those countries that they felt threatened 25-30% of the world’s oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

    Documentary evidence for these claims has come by way of the UK Chilcot Inquiry into the 2003 Iraq War. For example, a report quoted a British embassy cable, dated 15 September 2001, explained that ‘[t]he “regime-change hawks” in Washington are arguing that a coalition put together for one purpose [against international terrorism] could be used to clear up other problems in the region.’ Another document released by Chilcot shows British Prime Minister Tony Blair and US President George Bush discussing phases one and two of the ‘war on terror’ and when to hit particular countries. Blair writes:

    If toppling Saddam is a prime objective, it is far easier to do it with Syria and Iran in favour or acquiescing rather than hitting all three at once.

    The regime-change wars that have flowed directly and indirectly from 9/11 continue to this day. War and conflict continues in Afghanistan and Iraq whilst the nine-year-long war in Syria has borne witness to extensive and illegal policies pursued by Western governments including the funding and arming of extremist groups coupled with support for groups actually aligned with Al Qaeda. Iran continues to be subjected to US hybrid warfare tactics including sanctions and covert operations whilst the threat of military action is very clear and present.

    The human cost of these wars, built upon the ruthless exploitation of public fear of terrorism in order to pursue multiple ‘regime-change’ wars, has been huge. According to the Brown University ‘Costs of War Project’, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have killed a combined 480,000 to 507,000 civilians, coalition military members, and foreign fighters, with an untold number having been maimed and disfigured. IPPNW estimated that the first ten years of the ‘war on terror’ in Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan killed 1.3 million people.

    Since 2011, in Syria alone, over 400,000 people have died as a result of war. The numbers of people displaced as a result of these conflicts are also extremely high; wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, and Syria have wrought a combined 9.39 million refugees, 10.78 million internally displaced peoples, and 830,000 asylum seekers. In addition, there are persisting and very serious concerns with respect to the possible involvement of state actors with the event of 9/11.

    Recent and critical developments regarding the events of 9/11 include the publication this week of the University of Alaska study of the WTC7 Collapse which confirms that the official US government investigation was wrong if not plain fraudulent. Other important developments include publication last year of the 9/11 Consensus Panel evidence and increasing scrutiny of the official narrative from mainstream academics.

    Overall, the 9/11 global ‘war on terror’ is increasingly coming to be understood particularly across the world as, first and foremost, a remarkable propaganda campaign designed to enable violent conflict in the international system and with its effects and objectives being far wider and deeper than had been suggested by official narratives regarding the need to combat Al Qaeda.

    CORONA VIRUS: A NEW 9/11?

    The lesson of 9/11 is that major events can become what scholar Peter Dale Scott describes as deep events which are exploited by political actors in order to precipitate and manage major political, economic and social shifts. 9/11 became, in effect, the deep event that enabled 20 years of unfettered Western warfare abroad and severe civil liberty restrictions and extensive surveillance at home.

    At the time of 9/11 many people in the West were terrified of terrorism. Public opposition to the invasion of Afghanistan (the first regime war to flow within months of 9/11) was almost impossible without being accused of being reckless in the ‘fight against terrorism’ or of being an ‘Al Qaeda’ sympathizer. Muslims throughout the West were widely despised. US President George Bush declared that ‘you are either with us or against us’. The parallels with what is happening today are obvious.

    Is the Coronavirus a new 9/11, a new deep event? We cannot yet be sure, as of this writing. Perhaps the current strategy of suspending basic liberties will work to effectively eliminate all threats posed by the virus. Governments will then restore the civil liberties currently being suspended and all will fairly quickly return to the way things were before. Perhaps the economy will confidently weather the fallout from the ‘lockdowns’ and everything will return to business as usual.

    And perhaps a sober ‘lessons learned’ review will lead to public health officials developing reasonable and balanced plans, such as developing sufficient capacity for rapid testing and tracing, which can be deployed the next time a sufficiently dangerous virus starts to spread thus avoiding terrifying publics and implementing draconian measures that inflict significant damage to the social and economic fabric of society.

    Or perhaps not. It may be that, as British journalist Peter Hitchens has been warning, the loss of liberty and basic rights will continue indefinitely as governments greedily hold on to their increased powers of control over their citizenry.

    Similarly, Italian journalist Stefania Maurizi has warned about the risks in Italy of state authorities, hostile to open societies and the political left, exploiting Corona in order to increase their control.

    An obvious concern here is whether there will be a permanent impact on mass gatherings and protests. James Corbett warns of a permanent state of ‘medical martial law’ and there is certainly the very real possibility of the normalization of government-imposed quarantine and other freedom of movement restrictions.

    Margaret Kimberley of the US-based Black Agenda Report warns that Corona may be used as a way of covering up both economic crisis and collapse. She notes that the Federal Reserve ‘recently threw Wall Street a $1.5 trillion lifeline which only kicked the can down the road. The can has been kicked ever since the Great Recession of 2008’. The likely destruction of small businesses might allow for ever greater corporate choke-hold on the economy with more people forced into the corporate workforce.

    There is certainly the danger that COVID-19 will be exploited in order to distract from severe economic problems whilst also enabling the pursuit of new economic strategies which worsen rather than mitigate the social inequalities that already tarnish Western countries.

    And, of course those actors behind the regime-change wars that flowed from 9/11 may use the Coronavirus to increase pressure on the countries they have been targeting for the last 20 years and those they wish to target in the future.

    Already we have seen the regime-change advocate John Bolton blaming China for the Corona Virus whilst the New York Times reported that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and national security adviser Robert C. O’Brien were ‘arguing that tough action while Iran’s leaders were battling the corona virus ravaging the country could finally push then into direct negotiations’.

    ABC news report that, despite the Coronavirus, US and UAE troops have held a major military exercise ‘that saw forces seize a sprawling model Mideast city’. It is also worth nothing here the recent US assassination of Iranian General Solemeni and the on-going proxy battles between US forces and Iranian-backed groups in Iraq. The possibility of Corona being exploited in order to further the regime change wars we have seen over the last 20 years is extremely likely and it would be naïve in the extreme to think otherwise.

    Whatever the COVID-19 event may or may not be, the fundamental lesson of the last 20 years is that governments can and do exploit, even manipulate, events in order to pursue political, social, military and economic objectives. Fearful populations are frequently irrational ones, vulnerable and malleable. Now is not the time for deference to authority and reluctance to speak out.

    It is time for publics to get informed, think calmly and rationally, and to robustly scrutinize and challenge what their governments are doing. The dangers of failing to do this likely far surpass the immediate threat posed by the Coronavirus.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 03/28/2020 – 23:45

  • China Suffers Economic Double-Whammy As Current Global Demand Collapse Follows Earlier Supply Crash
    China Suffers Economic Double-Whammy As Current Global Demand Collapse Follows Earlier Supply Crash

    As the first quarter is about to close, many Chinese factories are still operating below full capacity, have been gradually ramping up production over the last several weeks as government data suggests the country’s pandemic curve has flattened.

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    But as Bloomberg notes, there is a serious problem developing, one where the virus crisis is locking down the Western Hemisphere, has resulted in firms from Europe and the US to cancel their Chinese orders en masse, triggering the second shockwave that is starting to decimate China’s industrial base. 

    A manager from Shandong Pangu Industrial Co. told Bloomberg that 60% of their orders go to Europe. In recent weeks, manager Grace Gao warned that European clients are requesting orders to be delayed or canceled because of the virus crisis unfolding across the continent.

    “It’s a complete, dramatic turnaround,” Gao said, estimating that sales in April to May could plunge by 40% over the prior year. “Last month, it was our customers who chased after us checking if we could still deliver goods as planned. Now it’s become us chasing after them asking if we should still deliver products as they ordered.”

    A twin shock has emerged, one where China shuttering most of its industrial base from mid-January through early March, generated a supply shock. Now, as those Chinese firms add capacity, expecting to be met with a surge in demand from Western companies, that is not the case and is resulting in a demand shock. 

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    “It is definitely the second shockwave for the Chinese economy,” said Xing Zhaopeng, an economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group. The pandemic across the world “will affect China manufacturing through two channels: disrupted supply chains and declining external demand.”

    With orders canceled, supply chains disrupted, and payments delayed – the road to recovery in China is going to be a bumpy one at best. Overly optimistic analysts who have been touting a V-shape recovery in China, thus the world, in the first half of the year, will likely be wrong, and as we’ve explained several times, the best case is a U-shape or even perhaps an L-shape.

    “Manufacturers are seeing many cases where overseas clients regretted their orders or where goods can’t be delivered due to customs closures in other countries,” said Dong Liu, vice president of Fujian Strait Textile Technology Co. in southeastern China. Liu’s factory was on the cusp of resuming full capacity this month until a demand shock severely dented export orders. 

    Nomura International HK Ltd warned earlier this week that China could be on the verge of “plummeting export growth in the coming months.”

    We noted on Friday morning that Chinese industrial profits crashed the most on record in January-February, due mostly because of the Lunar new year holiday, coupled with the virus outbreak and strict social distancing measures implemented by the government. This means many Chinese firms are struggling to survive, running out of cash, and on the brink of bankruptcy as demand from abroad has collapsed.

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    In Keqiao, Shaoxing, a district known for textile manufacturing, many firms are in rough shape after several months of shuttering operations. Have now been greeted with a collapse in demand, thwarting any hope that full capacity can arrive in the coming weeks. 

    The twin shocks, first being a supply shock, originating from shutdowns in China, then a demand shock, now coming from the Western world, is the evolution of the global economic crash that is unfolding right in front of us. The world is headed for a depression, if not already in one, as central banks are frantically deploying MMT and unleashing helicopter money to save the world


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 03/28/2020 – 23:20

  • Is The COVID-19 Outbreak A Trojan Horse To Increase Smartphone Surveillance?
    Is The COVID-19 Outbreak A Trojan Horse To Increase Smartphone Surveillance?

    Authored by Aaron Kesel via ActivistPost.com,

    The coronavirus outbreak is proving to be the Trojan horse that justifies increased digital surveillance via our smartphones.

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    All over the world, starting with China – the suspected origin of the COVID-19 outbreak – governments are increasing surveillance of citizens using their smartphones. The trend is taking off like wildfire; in China citizens now require a smartphone application’s permission to travel around the country and internationally.

    The application is AliPay by Ant Financial, the finance affiliate controlled by Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. co-founder Jack Ma, and Tencent Holdings Ltd.’s WeChat. Citizens now require a green health code to travel, Yahoo News reported.

    China isn’t the only country looking towards smartphones to monitor their citizens; Israel and Poland have also implemented their own spying to monitor those suspected or confirmed to be infected with the COVID-19 virus. Israel has gone the more extreme route, and has now given itself authority to surveil any citizen without a court warrant. Poland on the other hand is requiring those diagnosed with COVID-19 ordered to self-isolate to send authorities a selfie using an app. Which, if Poles don’t respond back in 20 minutes with a smiling face, they risk a visit from police, Dailymail reported.

    Singapore has asked citizens to download an app which uses Bluetooth to track whether they’ve been near anyone diagnosed with the virus; and Taiwan, although not using a smartphone, has introduced “electronic fences” which alert police if suspected patients leave their homes.

    Meanwhile, here in the U.S. as reported by the Washington Post, smartphones are being used by a variety of companies to “anonymously” collect user data and track if social distancing orders are being adhered to. Beyond that, the mobile phone industry is discussing how to monitor the spread of COVID-19. If that’s not enough, as this author reported for The Mind Unleashed, the government wants to work with big social tech giants like Google, Facebook, and others, to track the spread of COVID-19.

    new live index shows the increase of the police state by Top10VPN, a Digital Rights group. Top10VPN lists a total of 15 countries which have already started measures to track the phones of coronavirus patients, ranging from anonymized aggregated data to monitor the movement of people more generally, to the tracking of individual suspected patients and their contacts, known as “contact tracing.”

    That’s not the only live index, a company called Unacast that collects and analyzes phone GPS location data also launched one. Except this is a “Social Distancing Scoreboard” that grades, county by county, monitoring who is following social distancing rules.

    As Activist Post previously wrote while discussing the increase of a police surveillance state, these measures being put into place now will likely remain long after the pandemic has stopped and the virus has run its course. That’s the everlasting effect that COVID-19 will have on our society.  The coronavirus is now classified as a pandemic by the World Health Organization, and it may very well be a legitimate health concern for all of us around the world. But it’s the government’s response that should worry us all more in the long run.

    At the time of this report the COVID-19 virus has infected 640,589, killed 29,848, while 137,270 have recovered according to the Johns Hopkins map.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 03/28/2020 – 22:55

  • Global Pandemic Preparedness – Which Country Is The Most (And Least) Ready For COVID-19?
    Global Pandemic Preparedness – Which Country Is The Most (And Least) Ready For COVID-19?

    The world has experienced many pandemics throughout its history, but not every era has had the benefit of modern medicine and hindsight.

    However, as Visual Capitalist’s Nichaolas LePan notes, even with the readily available medical expertise and equipment that exists today, it is still unevenly distributed throughout the globe. Combine this with a highly interconnected global economy, and large populations are still at risk from infection.

    Today’s chart pulls data from the 2019 Global Health Security Index, which ranks 195 countries on health security. It reveals that while there were top performers, healthcare systems around the world on average are fundamentally weak – and not prepared for new disease outbreaks.

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    Pathways for Commerce and Disease

    Modern transportation and trade have linked the farthest stretches of the world to fuel a global economy. Physical distance plays less a limiting role and more an enabling one to form a flat world as Thomas Friedman put it, creating opportunities for commerce anywhere in the world.

    A person can sell dishware from his home in Cusco, Peru, online to a customer in Muncie, Indiana, with products manufactured in China, from materials sourced in Africa.

    While these connections sound sterile, there are people interacting with one another to procure, manufacture, package, and distribute the goods. The connections are not just through products, but also people and animals across many borders.

    Now, add up the interactions within the global food supply chain with plants and livestock and tourism industries and place them under the pressures of climate change, urbanization, international mass displacement, and migration—and the volume and variety of opportunities for disease transmission and mutation becomes infinite.

    The same pathways of global commerce become the transmission vectors for disease. A cough in Dubai can become a fever in London with one flight and one day.

    You Cannot Manage What You Do Not Measure

    Despite this, we still live with national healthcare systems that look inward towards national populations, with less of a focus on integrating what is happening with the outside world.

    The Global Health Security (GHS) Index is the first comprehensive effort to assess and benchmark health security and related capabilities by nation, and it tracks six key factors to come up with an overall score for each of the 195 countries in the ranking:

    1. Prevention
      Prevention of the emergence or release of pathogens

    2. Detection and Reporting
      Early detection and reporting for epidemics of potential international concern

    3. Rapid Response
      Capability of rapidly responding to and mitigating the spread of an epidemic

    4. Health System
      Sufficient and robust and health system to treat the sick and protect health workers

    5. Compliance with Global Norms
      Compliance with international norms by improving national capacity, financing plans to address gaps

    6. Risk Environment
      Risk environment and country vulnerability to biological threats

    Note: The GHS Index is a project of the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) and the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security (JHU), and was developed with The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).

    Country Overall Rankings

    Overall, the rankings uncover a distressing insight. Global preparedness for both epidemics and pandemics is weak, with the average score in the index sitting at 40.2 out of 100.

    The countries with the highest scores have effective governance and politics systems in place, while those with the lowest scores fall down for their inadequate healthcare systems—even among high-income countries.

    Here are the 10 highest-ranking countries in the index:

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    You can view the complete rankings of all 195 countries on the GHS Index website.

    Interestingly, 81% of countries score in the bottom tier for indicators related to biosecurity—and worse, 85% of countries show no evidence of having completed a biological threat-focused simulation exercise in conjunction with the World Health Organization (WHO) in the past year.

    Confirmed COVID-19 Cases vs. Global Health Security Score

    Many healthcare systems have had their security tested with the outbreak of COVID-19.

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    Although it is still extremely early, there appears to be a relationship between a nation’s health security and its ability to cope with pandemics.

    Takeaways: A World Unprepared

    While there may be top performers relative to other countries, the overall picture paints a grim picture that foreshadowed the current crisis we are living through.

    “It is likely that the world will continue to face outbreaks that most countries are ill positioned to combat. In addition to climate change and urbanization, international mass displacement and migration—now happening in nearly every corner of the world—create ideal conditions for the emergence and spread of pathogens.”

     – The Global Health Security Index, 2019

    The report outlined eight critical insights about global health security in 2019 that reveal some of the problems countries are now facing.

    1. National health security is fundamentally weak globally. No country is fully prepared for epidemics or pandemics, and every country has important gaps to address.

    2. Countries are not prepared for a globally catastrophic biological event.

    3. There is little evidence that most countries have tested important health security capacities or shown that they would be functional in a crisis.

    4. Most countries have not allocated funding from national budgets to fill identified preparedness gaps.

    5. More than half of countries face major political and security risks that could undermine national capability to combat biological threats.

    6. Most countries lack basic health systems capacities critical for epidemic and pandemic response.

    7. Coordination and training are inadequate among veterinary, wildlife, and public health professionals and policymakers.

    8. Improving country compliance with international health and security norms is essential.

    A Stark Reality

    The intention of the Global Health Security Index is to encourage improvements in the planning and response to one of the world’s most omnipresent risks–infectious disease outbreaks. When this report was released in 2019, it revealed that even the highest ranking nations still had gaps to fill in preparing for a pandemic.

    Of course, hindsight is 20/20. The COVID-19 outbreak has served as a wake-up call to health organizations and governments around the world. Once all of the curves have been flattened, the next version of this report will undoubtedly be viewed with renewed interest.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 03/28/2020 – 22:30

  • COVID-19 Is Forcing The World To Re-Think The Idea Of "Monetary Value"
    COVID-19 Is Forcing The World To Re-Think The Idea Of “Monetary Value”

    Authored by Matthew Ehret via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    Western society has long been gripped by a deep seeded belief in money. Trillions of dollars of bank notes tied to ever-growing mountains of un-payable national debts has taken on a life of its own over the years. As the post-1971 years rolled by, society increasingly lost a sense that this human invention called “money” was created to serve humanity rather than rule it, and with that lost sense, money became an idol of worship.

    Decades of this modern religion have resulted in an incredibly tragic situation: a disproportionate wealth distribution in the hands of the 0.1%, an over-bloated services/consumer driven economy, increased rates of poverty and despair internationally as well as a dismal loss of vital skills, and productive capacity once enjoyed by advanced industrial nations just four decades ago. Vital infrastructure built up during the 1930s-1960s has been permitted to decay through simple neglect while un-payable debts have reached record highs.

    Then like a thief in the night, the illusion was ripped away.

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    The Confused Response to the Crisis

    This ripping away took the form of an international pandemic which has resulted in western nations’ economies grinding to a halt with a new $2 Trillion government emergency spending bill unveiled on March 24. The Washington Post reports that this bill will authorize “hundreds of billions of dollars sent to Americans in the form of checks as a way to flood the country with money in an effort to blunt the dramatic pullback of spending that has resulted from the coronavirus outbreak.”

    Governments across the Trans-Atlantic have also announced national interventions into banks and private industry in order to force production quotas of vital equipment like ventilators, masks and other medical necessities to meet the increased demand. Banks in Spain have been nationalized (albeit only “temporarily”) to force finance to act in accordance with the needs of society. In America, the Defense Authorization Act and broader War Powers Act passed by President Trump gives the executive broad powers to take over vital industries if needed in order to mobilize the nation to respond to the crisis.

    This renewal of national sovereign powers breaks all of the monetary “laws of the neoliberal order” and with that defiance of globalization, a genuine positive potential for a paradigm shift is visible…

    but something vital is still missing.

    This “missing something” is clearly demonstrated by the continued obsession with money as new bailouts of the collapsing speculative banks have now risen to a $1 trillion/day overnight repo loan to collapsing banks which is added to the $1 Trillion 14 week loans offered every week that will dramatically increase the $9 trillion already emitted since helicopter money began in earnest in September 2019. With the mass panic and economic shutdown instigated by COVID-19, markets have lost over 30% of their value and fears of a new great depression have spread far and wide. Rather than impose serious bank regulation like Glass-Steagall to break up the commercial from speculative banks as was done in 1933, the American government has merely unleashed unlimited money printing. This bipolar response is akin to trying to stop a raging fire with a combination of water and gasoline.

    We thus find that the greatest crisis facing humanity is not caused by the market crisis, or even the coronavirus per se, but rather society’s profound inability to understand the source of real from fictitious value.

    What is REAL Value? Lincoln and FDR Revisited

    “The privilege of creating and issuing money is not only the supreme prerogative of Government, but it is the Government’s greatest creative opportunity. By the adoption of these principles, the long-felt want for a uniform medium will be satisfied. The taxpayers will be saved immense sums of interest, discounts and exchanges. The financing of all public enterprises, the maintenance of stable government and ordered progress, and the conduct of the Treasury will become matters of practical administration. The people can and will be furnished with a currency as safe as their own government. Money will cease to be the master and become the servant of humanity. Democracy will rise superior to the money power.”

    These words were uttered by none other than America’s 16th president Abraham Lincoln as he fought to take federal control of credit vis a vis the “greenbacks” that not only allowed him to win the war of secession but also construct the greatest infrastructure and industrialization programs of history driven by the trans continental railway. The dramatic success of Lincoln’s “American System” not only saved the union, but spread successfully across the world from Japan’s Meiji restoration, Russia’s trans Siberian rail development, Bismarck’s Zollverein in Germany and Sadi Carnot’s France. This powerful spread of what German economist Friedrich List called “the American System of Political Economy” nearly annihilated the money-worshipping system of Adam Smith’s Free Trade doctrine from the earth and only failed in this task via a plenitude of London-directed assassinations, and a couple of imperially-orchestrated wars and revolutions along the way.

    The world spun out of control between the murder of the “last Lincoln republican” William Mckinley in 1901 and the orchestrated meltdown of the U.S. economy known as the great depression of 1929.

    Amidst this dark period, Franklin Roosevelt called for the Democrats to claim the legacy of Lincoln from the corrupt republican party and faced a Wall Street-backed coup d’etat, survived a freemasonic assassination attempt and subverted a City of London-orchestrated bankers’ dictatorship… all in his first year in office. During his March 4, 1933 inaugural address, the president rallied the American people saying:

    “I am prepared under my constitutional duty to recommend the measures that a stricken nation in the midst of a stricken world may require. These measures, or such other measures as the Congress may build out of its experience and wisdom, I shall seek, within my constitutional authority, to bring to speedy adoption.”

    As I have outlined in my recent paper How to Crush a Bankers’ Dictatorship, FDR took control of credit in a similar manner as Lincoln by forcing the Federal Reserve to obey a national mandate for the first time since the private bank was set up in 1913. He did so by imposing his ally Mariner Eccles into the position of Chairman who understood that money had to create infrastructure and industrial growth in order to acquire any claim to having actual “value”. This was a stark break from the “hands off/laissez-faire” policy of President Hoover and his JP Morgan-run cabinet. FDR also emitted Lincoln-styled productive credit through the Reconstruction Finance Corporation (RFC) to fuel the New Deal. The RFC issued over $33 billion in low-interest loans by the end of the war (more than all private banks combined).

    Describing his moral philosophy of political economy, FDR stated:

    “We seek not merely to make government a mechanical implement, but to give it the vibrant personal character that is the very embodiment of human charity. We are poor indeed if this nation cannot afford to lift from every recess of American life the dread fear of the unemployed that they are not needed in the world. We cannot afford to accumulate a deficit in the books of human fortitude.”

    What is missing today

    Today’s America is confronting an existential crisis similar to that which both Lincoln and Franklin Roosevelt battled in their time. Just as the proto-deep state of 1865 ran Lincoln’s assassination from Montreal Canada, and took over the White House minutes after FDR’s untimely death in 1945, today’s deep state has attempted in vain to overthrow President Trump while successfully undermining the political viability of other “outsiders” like Bernie Sanders and Tulsi Gabbard.

    The difference is that today’s crisis combines elements of all previous crises of 1861-1865, 1929-1933 and 1938-1945: the very real new threat of chaos and civil war within, NATO-led wars with China and Russia without and economic collapse across the entire trans-Atlantic bubble economy. The other difference is located in the current presidency’s inability to FOCUS with a clear mind on principled solutions to this multi-faceted crisis while instead finding itself trapped within contradictory impulses.

    While FDR and Lincoln understood that VALUE was located the physically productive forces of labor which sustained and improved the lives of people and gave the constitution’s pre-amble a real living character, today’s American leadership has displayed a far greater ignorance to this basic fact of life. The vital difference between “need” vs “want” which has been obscured by decades of free market ideology has resulted in a loss of moral judgment necessary to properly put out the fires threatening to unleashing civil war, chaos and fascist global government “solutions” across the Trans Atlantic today.

    The new multipolar alliance led by Russia and China have demonstrated what modern day New Deal policies can do. The Belt and Road Initiative as well as the Strategic Eurasian Partnership, Polar Silk Road and bold space exploration projects all reflect the type of principles of win-win cooperation and long term planning that characterized both FDR and Lincoln earlier. The Health Silk Road announced earlier this week by President Xi Jinping provides a brilliant maneuver to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic under a non-Malthusian worldview. This Multipolar Alliance exists as a form of a life raft for anyone wishing to escape the fate of the Titanic and embark on a new epoch of growth and cooperation.

    The question is: Do western powers have the ability to act according to a scientific (and moral) standard of value by aligning with this multipolar alliance or will they choose to remain in Orwell’s dystopic cage and succumb to a fate which Lincoln, FDR and other great leaders gave their lives to prevent?


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 03/28/2020 – 22:05

  • More Evidence China Is Lying; Number Of Urns More Than Double Reported Coronavirus Deaths
    More Evidence China Is Lying; Number Of Urns More Than Double Reported Coronavirus Deaths

    China has been caught lying once again about coronavirus figures  – with the latest evidence coming from ground-zero in Wuhan, where according to official CCP data just 50,006 people were infected with COVID-19, and 2,535 dying of the virus.

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    Yet, Chinese investigative outlet Caixin revealed that when mortuaries opened back up this week, photos revealed a far greater number of urns than reported deaths. In one, a truck loaded with 2,500 urns can be seen arriving to the Hankou Mortuary. According to the report, the driver said he had delivered the same amount the previous day.

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    In another photo, seven 500-urn stacks can be seen inside the mortuary, adding up to 3,500 deaths.

    This adds up to more than double the amount of reported deaths in the region – for which grieving family members waited in line for as long as five hours to collect, according to Shanghaiist.

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    Urns are reportedly being distributed at a rate of 500 a day at the mortuary until the Tomb Sweeping Day holiday, which falls on April 4 this year.

    Wuhan has seven other mortuaries. If they are all sticking to the same schedule, this adds up to more than 40,000 urns being distributed in the city over the next 10 days.

    When reporters at Bloomberg made calls to the funeral homes to check on the number of urns waiting to be collected, the mortuaries said that they either did not have that data or were not authorized to disclose it. –Shanghaiist

    Given the constant, provable lies, does anyone believe that China has actually contained COVID-19?

    And of course, as former White House press secretary Sean Spicer pointed out implicitly, don’t expect the mainstream media to question anything…

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    Besides they all know the truth…(but must resist)

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    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 03/28/2020 – 21:40

  • Fictional Reserve Lending Is The New Official Policy
    Fictional Reserve Lending Is The New Official Policy

    Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

    Official policy finally caught up with reality. Reserves are fictional.

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    Official Announcement

    With little fanfare or media coverage, the Fed made this Announcement on Reserves.

    As announced on March 15, 2020, the Board reduced reserve requirement ratios to zero percent effective March 26, 2020. This action eliminated reserve requirements for all depository institutions.

    Amusingly, a few days ago yet another article appeared explaining how the Money Multiplier works. The example goes like this: Someone deposits $10,000 and a bank lends out $9,000 and then the $9,000 gets redeposited and 90% of the gets lent out and so an and so forth.

    The notion was potty. That is not remotely close to how loans get made. Deposits and reserves never played into lending decisions.

    What’s Changed Regarding Lending?

    Essentially, nothing.

    The announcement just officially admitted the denominator on reserves for lending is zero.

    There are no reserve lending constraints (but practically speaking, there never were).

    Fictional Reserve Lending Flashback

    I wrote about this in December of 2009 in Fictional Reserve Lending and the Myth of Excess Reserves.

    The flashback is amusing as I reference a number of people worried about hyperinflation.

    Here are the facts of the matter as I explained in 2009.

    Money Multiplier Theory Is Wrong

    • Lending comes first and what little reserves there are (if any) come later.

    • There really are no excess reserves.

    • Not only are there no excess reserves, there are essentially no reserves to speak of at all.

    The rationale behind the last bullet point pertains to banks hiding losses. Regulators suspended mark-to-market accounting.

    When Do Banks Make Loans?

    1. They meet capital requirements

    2. They believe they have a creditworthy borrower

    3. Creditworthy borrowers want to borrow

    All three requirements must be met.

    1. Banks generally do not lend if they are capital impaired.

    2. Clearly someone must want to borrow.

    Point two is worthy of discussion.

    Banks may not have a creditworthy borrower, they just have to believe it, or they have an alternate belief that applies. In 2007 banks knew full well they were making mortgage liar loans.

    So Why Did They?

    Because banks bought into the idea home prices would not go down so they did not give a rat’s ass if someone was out on the street. All they cared about was the quality of the loan. If Home prices appreciated, they were covered.

    From a bank lending aspect, nothing has changed. Neither reserves nor deposits never entered into the picture.

    Denominator Officially Zero

    The denominator on lending is now officially zero. But nothing really changed. The Fed was always ready, willing, and able to supply unlimited reserves.

    The only thing that’s new is the official announcement that reserves are fictional.

    Capital Concerns in 2009

    There are capital concerns, but note that in March of 2009 the Fed suspended mark-to-mark accounting.

    That was the key announcement that launched the bull market.

    Capital Concerns Now

    There are still capital concerns, but the Fed stepped up to the plate and is willing to buy corporate bonds.

    Guess who is going to unload as much questionable junk as possible and guess who will buy it.

    Banks know they have losses but hey will not admit them.

    All it takes to mask them is a clever swap takes the assets off the balance sheet of the banks and temporarily hides them on the balance sheet of the Fed.

    What About New Lending?

    Hiding junk is not new lending. It is not new production. And it is not new hiring.

    To achieve real growth we need new production, not hiding of losses.

    Losses and Zombies

    Once again, the Fed has chosen to hide losses and shelter zombie corporations.

    This will be a drag on any recovery.

    All Excess Now

    Hey, look on the bright side.

    By definition, all reserves are now excess reserves. Banks can collect on all reserves.

    The rate may not be much, but Interest on Excess Reserves = Interest on Reserves

    Ain’t life grand?

    But, But, But, But

    1. Unemployment Claims Spike to 3.28 Million, New Record High

    2. Coronavirus Trend: One in 10 of Those Hospitalized Die

    3. Retail Grinds to a Halt as 47,000 Stores Close

    4. US Output Drops at Fastest Rate in a Decade

    But banks are saved. What more could you possibly want?

    Meanwhile, Nothing is Working Now (Except for Banks)

    For a 20-point discussion of where we are headed, please see What’s Next for America?


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 03/28/2020 – 21:15

  • Rosneft Abruptly Exits Venezuela, Sells Assets To Russian State, Amid US Squeeze On Maduro
    Rosneft Abruptly Exits Venezuela, Sells Assets To Russian State, Amid US Squeeze On Maduro

    In the past weeks the Kremlin has shown it’s willing to punch back as well as take drastic necessary defensive action in the face of Washington sanctions at a moment America is preoccupied and made more vulnerable by the coronavirus threat — first by dumping OPEC+ and MbS, effectively declaring war on US shale — and now by taking aggressive measures to insulate Russia’s state-controlled Rosneft.

    On Saturday Rosneft announced it has sold off all its Venezuelan oil assets to an unnamed Russian state entity. “The government of the Russian Federation has acquired assets in Venezuela from Rosneft. A company 100% owned by the Russian Federation has become the owner,” Russia’s TASS said.

    A company statement framed the move as key to protecting shareholders’ interests at a moment the Trump administration ramps up pressure on Maduro and external entities still doing business with Caracas. It’s been widely reported that Rosneft has explored exit options since early 2019 when Venezuelan assets continued rapidly losing money, leading to worsened current operating conditions.

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    Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro holds a sword given as gift by Russian oil company Rosneft’s CEO, Igor Sechin. File image: AFP via Getty

    “As a result of the concluded agreement all assets and trading operations of Rosneft in Venezuela and/or connected with Venezuela will be disposed of, terminated or liquidated,” Rosneft said. “We took this decision in the interests of our shareholders, as a publicly traded international company,” Rosneft spokesman Mikhail Leontyev further told TASS. “And we have a right to expect, indeed, that the US regulators fulfill their public promises.”

    On Thursday the White House went so far as to issue a $15 million bounty on Maduro and his inner circle over drug trafficking charges, amid sweeping indictments against what Washington dubbed a vast narco-state criminal enterprise orchestrated by the regime. It appears Rosneft took note of Trump’s willingness to press his economic war on Venezuela further even as the United States now leads the world in numbers of confirmed coronavirus cases, which threatens to decimate an economy still on “pause” and extreme uncertainty still on the horizon. 

    All of this follows in mid-February the US slapping new sanctions on Rosneft Trading SA, a unit of Rosneft, and the company’s executive Didier Casimiro, accusing it of being the “primary culprit” of a campaign to evade Washington’s pressure campaign on the Maduro government. But the sanctions stopped just short of naming parent company Rosneft, though the Trump administration long accused it of “actively evading sanctions — engaging in ruses, engaging in deception.”

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    Via AFP/Getty

    Bloomberg observed that “The fight over Venezuela fits into a much larger geopolitical battle between Trump and Vladimir Putin, with both turning to oil as the weapon of choice.” And the report further cited Russia’s ambassador to Venezuela, Sergey Melik-Magdasarov, as saying:

    “Don’t worry! This is about Rosneft’s assets being transferred to Russia’s government directly. We keep moving forward together!,” he [Amb. Melik-Magdasarov] said, in a message that also posted on the embassy website.

    The assets include Rosneft’s stakes in local upstream companies Petromonagas, Petroperija, Boqueron, Petromiranda and Petrovictoria, as well as oil-service, commercial and trading units.

    The Russian Federation controls Rosneft with just over 50% of its shares, while BP Plc is the second-largest shareholder with 19.75%, and Qatar’s QH Oil Investments owns 18.93%.

    Rosneft’s position has long been that US sanctions are illegal and that its own operations in Venezuela are commercial in nature, not political, after in prior months the company’s cooperation with state-run PDVSA became an “open secret”. 

    The ultimate strategy behind Saturday’s dramatic announcement is as yet uncertain, it should be noted:

    But Russ Dallen, head of Caracas Capital Markets brokerage, cautioned that it’s too early to know for sure whether the move is intended to bolster Maduro.

    “We don’t know whether the new state entity is a cemetery corporation, where companies go to die, or whether the Russians are simply doing it to take Rosneft — which is their crown jewel and provides a large portion of Russia’s income — out of the way of sanctions and Putin will use the new company to continue to help Maduro,” he said.

    Rosneft has emerged as one of PDVSA’s closest joint venture partners, being crucial as a heavy lifter keeping Venezuelan oil afloat at a moment Washington tries to strangle and blockade the socialist state’s industry.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 03/28/2020 – 20:50

  • Midnight On Planet Lockdown: Bob Dylan Strikes Again
    Midnight On Planet Lockdown: Bob Dylan Strikes Again

    Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Asia Times,

    What spectacular timing. Like a shot ricocheting at Heaven’s Door as a virus pandemic rages and Planet Lockdown is the new normal, Bob Dylan has produced a stunning 17-minute masterpiece dissecting the November 22, 1963, assassination of JFK – releasing it at midnight US Eastern Standard Time on Thursday.

    For baby boomers, not to mention obsessive Dylanologists, this is the ultimate sucker punch. Countless eyes will be plunged into swimming pools revisiting all the memories swirling around “the day they blew out the brains of the king / Thousands were watching, no one saw a thing.”  But that’s not all: the Dylanmobile takes us on a magical mystery tour of the 60s and 70s, complete with the Beatles, the Age of Aquarius and the Who’s “Tommy.”

    If there’s any cultural artifact capable of sending a powerful jolt across a discombobulated America trying to come to grips with a dystopic Desolation Row, this is it, the work of America’s undisputed, true Exceptionalist. The times, they are-a-changin’. Oh, yes, they are.

    There are so many nuggets in Dylan’s lyrics they would be worthy of a treatise, tracking the vortex of music, literature, film references and interlocking Americana.

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    This is essentially an incantatory mantra set to piano, sparse percussion and violin. We have two narrators: a dying Kennedy (“Ridin’ in the backseat next to my wife / Headin’ straight on in to the afterlife / I’m leanin’ to the left, got my head in her lap / Oh Lord, I’ve been led into some kind of a trap”) and Dylan himself.

    Or this can be read as Dylan playing Kennedy’s doppelganger, plus occasional interventions, such as Kennedy’s would-be killers

    (“Then they blew off his head while he was still in the car / Shot down like a dog in broad daylight / Was a matter of timin’ and the timin’ was right / You got unpaid debts we’ve come to collect / We gonna kill you with hatred, without any respect / We’ll mock you and shock you and we’ll grin in your face / We’ve already got someone here to take your place”).  

    The pearl at the heart of the mantra is nothing sort of apocalyptic:

    “They killed him once and they killed him twice / Killed him like a human sacrifice / The day that they killed him someone said to me, / ‘Son, The Age of the Antichrist has just only begun.’”

    Extra words to define it would be idle. Wherever you are in Planet Lockdown, sit back in stay at home social distancing mode, turn on, tune in and time travel. There will be blood on the tracks.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 03/28/2020 – 20:25

  • Joe Biden: "Believe All Women" (Except The One Accusing Me Of Sexual Assault)
    Joe Biden: “Believe All Women” (Except The One Accusing Me Of Sexual Assault)

    In September, 2018 – former Vice President Joe Biden weighed in on allegations of sexual assault against Justice Brett Kavanaugh by insisting that any woman’s public claims of sexual assault should be presumed to be true.

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    Except for Biden’s former Senate staffer, Tara Reade, who says Biden penetrated her with his fingers in 1993 when she was in her mid-20s, making her life “hell.”

    Biden’s deputy campaign manager magically transformed “believe all women” into “all women have a right to tell their story” on Friday, saying in a statement to Fox News: “Women have a right to tell their story, and reporters have an obligation to rigorously vet those claims. We encourage them to do so, because these accusations are false.

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    As we noted last week, Reade said in an interview with Rolling Stone‘s Katie Halper that Biden sexually assaulted her after she was asked to run a gym bag over to him.

    Biden’s “hands were on me and underneath my clothes,” she said, after he “had me up against the wall.”

    “I remember him saying first, like as he was doing it, ‘Do you want to go somewhere else,'” she said, adding “And then him saying to me when I pulled away, he got finished doing what he was doing, and I kind of just pulled back and he said, ‘Come on man, I heard you liked me.’ And that phrase stayed with me because I kept thinking what I might’ve said and I can’t remember exactly if he said ‘i thought’ or ‘I heard’ but he implied that I had done this.”

    Reade then went on to say that “everything shattered in that moment” because she knew that there were no witnesses and she looked up to him. “He was like my father’s age,” she said. “He was like this champion of women’s rights in my eyes and I couldn’t believe it was happening. It seemed surreal.”

    Reade then said Biden grabbed her by the shoulders and said, “You’re okay. You’re fine” and proceeded to walk away.

    Reade said that Biden also told her something after the alleged assault that she initially didn’t want to share because “it’s the thing that stays in my head over and over.” But after some pressing from Halper, Reade decided to share:

    He took his finger. He just like pointed at me and said you’re nothing to me.”

    Halper said she spoke with Reade’s brother and close friend, and both of them recall Reade telling them about the alleged assault at the time. –NewsOne

    Reade says that after she revealed some of Biden’s inappropriate behavior, she was accused of doing the bidding of Vladimir Putin, according to The Intercept 

    Listen to Reade’s interview here:


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 03/28/2020 – 20:00

  • "There's No Gold" – COMEX Report Exposes Conditions Behind Physical Crunch
    “There’s No Gold” – COMEX Report Exposes Conditions Behind Physical Crunch

    Early this week, we were among the first to report on the “break down” in precious metals markets.

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    While the demand for gold has been soaring as a safe haven asset amid the multiple global crises we are currently facing, forced paper gold liquidation (as leveraged funds scramble to cover margin calls) and unprecedented logistical disruptions created a frantic hunt for actual bars of gold.

    Specifically, as Bloomberg details, at the center of it all are a small band of traders who for years had cashed in on what had always been a sure-fire bet: shorting gold futures in New York against being long physical gold in London. Usually, they’d ride the trade out till the end of the contract when they’d have a couple of options to get out without marking much, if any, loss.

    But the virus, and the global economic collapse that it’s sparking, have created such extreme price distortions that those easy-exit options disappeared on them. Which means that they suddenly faced the threat of having to deliver actual gold bars to the buyers of the contract upon maturity.

    It’s at this point that things get really bad for the short-sellers.

    To make good on maturing contracts, they’d have to move actual gold from various locations. But with the virus shutting down air travel across the globe, procuring a flight to transport the metal became nearly impossible.

    If they somehow managed to get a flight, there was another major problem. Futures contracts in New York are based on 100-ounce bullion bars. The gold that’s rushed in from abroad is almost always a different size.

    The short-seller needs to pay a refiner to re-melt the gold and re-pour it into the required bar shape in order for it to be delivered to the contract buyer. But once again, the virus intervenes: Several refiners, including three of the world’s biggest in Switzerland, have shut down operations.

    “I realized it was going to be an extremely volatile day,” Tai Wong, the head of metals derivatives trading at BMO Capital Markets in New York, said of Tuesday. “We watched this panic develop literally over the course of 12 hours. Having seen enough market dislocations, you recognize that the frenzy wasn’t likely to last, but at the same time you also don’t know how long it would extend.”

    By the end of the week, the shorts had sourced the metal and chartered flights, reverting the spot-futures spread…

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    But Morgan Stanley’s Exchange-For-Physical Index shows a large physical premium remains

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    The real price.. for real gold? Nearer $1,800. If you can get it.

    “There’s no gold,” says Josh Strauss, partner at money manager Pekin Hardy Strauss in Chicago (and a bullion fan).

    “There’s no gold. There’s roughly a 10% premium to purchase physical gold for delivery. Usually it’s like 2%. I can buy a one ounce American Eagle for $1,800,” said Josh Strauss. “$1,800!”

    “The case for gold is simple,” says Strauss.

    You want to own gold in times of financial dislocation and or inflation. And that’s been the case since time immemorial. And gold behaves well in those cases. In those cases stocks behave poorly. It’s a great portfolio hedge. Gold does poorly when you’ve got strong economic growth and low inflation. Tell me when that’s going to happen. Gold held its value during 2008 and after all that money printing it tripled over the next three years.”

    And in case you doubted this, the cost of an American Eagle one ounce coin at the US Mint is now $2,175

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    But now we can see more details of what is behind this ‘shortage’ as SKWealthAcamdemy’s J.Kim details, the latest COMEX Issues and Stops reports expose conditions behind the COMEX physical gold supply problems. Though I have written about the various reasons why physical gold supply problems manifest many times in the past, this topic still remains one rarely discussed by financial journalists, and never discussed by the mass financial media.

    For client accounts, when bullion banks stop more notices than issued, they, will lose physical inventory.

    For house accounts, the opposite is true.

    When bullion banks issue more notices than stops, then they will lose physical inventory as well. Normally, when bullion banks manufacture waterfall declines in paper gold and silver prices, as they did earlier this month, with the complicity of the CME’s largely unreported rampage in raising initial and maintenance margins on futures contracts many times within a 2-month period in the midst of a stock market crash, they load up on physical gold and silver for their house accounts while ensuring that their clients take almost zero delivery of physical gold and silver ounces. However, if they are unable to execute this clever strategy, this is when physical gold supply problems can manifest.

    In fact, I have not seen a single news site in the entire world, except for my own, mention the relentless increase in initial and maintenance margins in gold and silver futures contracts (the 100-oz gold futures contract and the 5000-oz silver futures contract) for the past two months, in a desperate attempt to knock long positions out of the game and thereby prevent an increasing amount of physical delivery requests.

    Just recently, the CME raised margins yet again for 100-oz gold futures contracts to $9,185/$8,350 for initial/maintenance margins, representing a massive 86% increase in margins, and for 5000-oz silver futures contracts to $9.900/$9,000 for initial/maintenance margins, representing a gigantic 73% increase in margins, in just a couple months’ time. Normally, such relentless increases in initial/maintenance margins in gold futures markets is sufficient to prevent physical gold supply problems from afflicting futures markets, but the fact that even this reliable manipulation mechanism failed recently is a sign of additional tectonic earthquakes to come in the global financial system.

    However, as you can see for the data I have compiled for the behavior of issues and stops for client and house accounts for bullion banks in gold and silver from December 2019 to March 2020, this pattern of normal behavior, in which bullion banks take advantage of their own artificially manufactured paper gold and silver price plunges to load up on physical metals at the expense of their clients, has strongly reversed during this four-month time span. I have only included data for the major gold (100-oz) and silver (5000-oz) futures contracts below and not for the mini gold (10-oz) and mini silver (1000-oz) silver futures contracts. 

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    Furthermore, I only separated out the bullion banks by name that had several hundred to a few thousand contracts stopped or issued, and compiled all other data under the category of “all others”. For those of you that don’t understand the terminology “stopped” and “issued”, the categories refer to the number of delivery notices that were “issued” (short positions issuing notification that underlying gold/silver would be delivered) and “stopped” (long positions receiving a delivery notice).

    Therefore, when delivery notices are “issued” in house accounts, the issuing bank is on the hook for delivering the physical ounces associated with the underlying contracts. On the contrary, when notices are “stopped”, then the stopping bank would receive notification of the future delivery of the physical ounces associated with the underlying contracts. The same holds true for client accounts. Thus, all bullion banks desire more stopped than issued notices for their house accounts, and desire more issued versus stopped notices for their client accounts. This way they accumulate more physical inventory during artificially engineered paper price crashes.

    As you can see, the massive engineered drop in paper silver prices versus the massively higher physical silver prices for the past month backfired on the bullion banks, as it led to a frenzy of clients asking for physical delivery, whereas in the past, bankers had been able to chase client long positions out of the market without ever being on the hook for physical delivery. Thus the amount of contracts stopped versus issued for clients was nearly break even for silver futures contracts, a pattern I have not witnessed in a long time during a banker raid on paper silver prices.  And in regard to house accounts, under past similar circumstances, I had always observed JP Morgan bankers taking a tremendous amount of physical silver delivery during engineered collapses in paper silver prices. However, during the last four months, this situation did not materialize, perhaps due to the stress on physical stores of silver created by so many clients asking for physical delivery. As you can see in the data I complied above, this time around, JP Morgan bankers were nearly absent in taking physical silver delivery for their house account.  In fact, for the bullion bank house accounts, the amount of stopped versus issued contracts, net, was only 74 contracts, or a mere 395,000 AgOzs for their House accounts. As a basis of comparison, during similarly engineered collapses in paper silver prices in the past, JP Morgan alone was able to accumulate and take delivery of many millions of physical silver ounces.

    In regard to real physical gold delivery, the situation was even worse for bullion bankers than their situation with real physical silver delivery, which likely has given rise to physical gold supply problems at the current time. In their client accounts, physical delivery requests exploded, with the net (stopped minus issued) totaling 8,095 contracts representing 800,950 AgOzs of real physical gold requested for delivery. In their house accounts, the bullion banks were unable to yield a positive net situation either, with issued contracts exceeding stopped contracts by 6,107 contracts, representing 610,700 AgOzs.  Thus, when adding these two figures together, the bullion banks are on the hook for delivering more than 1.4M AgOzs.

    This unexpected demand on bullion bank physical gold reserves has undoubtedly led to a disruption of physical gold delivery associated with the gold futures markets, though various COMEX spokespeople have claimed there is no shortage of physical gold whatsoever, and that the disruption of delivery is simply due to a disruption in the supply chain caused by the coronavirus pandemic, i.e., when in doubt, blame the coronavirus pandemic for all manifested stresses revealed in the global financial system. Earlier, here, on 24 February, I speculated, well before US stock markets started to crash, that the coronavirus pandemic would be scapegoated for the market crash, and I was 100% right.  Is it possible that the coronavirus pandemic is now being scapegoated for shortages of physical gold as well?

    Oddly, a gold analyst, Ole Hanson stated in response to the shortages of gold physical supply in the futures markets: “There is plenty of gold in the market, but it’s not in the right places. Nobody can deliver the gold because we are forced to stay home.” The explicit function of COMEX warehouses is to store the physical gold that backs gold delivery associated with gold futures contracts. Consequently, why is the physical gold “not in the right places” and in these warehouses, as if it is stored where it is supposed to be stored, and the data is accurate (1.76M registered AuOzs and an additional 6.98M eligible AuOzs in COMEX warehouses as of 26 March 2020), there should be no physical gold shortages to meet physical demand right now? Did Mr. Hanson, in his statement that gold is “not in the right places” unwittingly reveal that the reported COMEX warehouse data is fraudulent?

    Secondly, some would suggest that ever since the COMEX mandate that paper gold could be used to close out physical delivery requests through EFP (Exchange For Physical) transactions by Exchange Rule 104.36 enacted on February 18, 2005, which allowed for the substitution of gold ETFs for physical gold, that no physical shortage of gold could ever result.

    Since paper was allowed to replace physical, could not bullion banks just literally “paper over” any physical supply deficit? And if the answer to this question is yes, then why is the COMEX experiencing physical shortages of gold right now? Well, as I explained in an article that I published on my news site in June 2011, in which I explained how EFP transactions operate (which you can read here), “the Related Position [Physical] must have a high degree of price correlation to the underlying of the Futures transaction so that the Futures transaction would serve as an appropriate hedge for the Related Position [Physical].”  Consequently, since there has been a massive price decoupling between physical and paper gold prices, perhaps this price decoupling has enabled the underlying holder of longs in gold that asked for physical delivery to reject any EFP transaction, since there is no longer a “high degree of price correlation” between paper and physical gold, and to insist on physical gold delivery with no substitution for this request. And this rejection of EFPs and EFS (exchange for swaps) as acceptable behavior is perhaps what is causing the physical gold supply problems in the futures markets right now.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 03/28/2020 – 19:35

  • $9,000,000,000,000: Former Fed Strategist Now Expects Fed's Balance Sheet To Double This Year
    $9,000,000,000,000: Former Fed Strategist Now Expects Fed’s Balance Sheet To Double This Year

    Late on Thursday, we calculated that as of the end of this turbulent week, the Fed will have added a record $625 billion to its balance sheet, bringing the total to $5.5 trillion, an increase of $1.3 trillion in two weeks (6% of GDP), which was the amount the Fed monetized during all of QE1 in response to the financial crisis, but which took place over a period of almost 2 years.

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    That’s just the start of what will soon become the most aggressive expansion in Fed balance sheet history because according to BofA’s Fed guru Mark Cabana, who was a former officer in the New York Fed’s Markets Group, the Fed’s balance sheet is now set to double to $9 trillion by the end of the year, to wit:

    We acknowledge there is elevated uncertainty around the outlook for the balance sheet, but anticipate it will approximately double in size from end ’19 to end ’20.

    The estimates for the Fed’s balance sheet “after unlimited QE and new programs” currently imply that between end ’19 & end ’20:

    • Fed balance sheet to US GDP will rise from 20% to 40%, in the process unleashing an unprecedented liquidity tsunami that will send asset prices soaring once the pandemic is over yet the Fed refuses to shrink its balance sheet (Chart 2)

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    • Fed UST as percentage of marketable debt will rise from 20% to 50%, in other words the Fed will now monetize all US Treasury issuance and then some (Chart 4)

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    • Fed UST holdings will increase by $1.8tn and agency MBS by $700+bn
    • Reserves will increase three- to four-fold

    All of the above in table format:

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    To arrive at these estimates, Cabana make the following assumptions about Fed purchases and use of the Fed’s facilities:

    UST and MBS purchases: expect two phases:

    • (1) initial bazooka to support market functioning. The Fed has purchased $75bn/day of USTs and $50bn/day of MBS. Through next week Cabana anticipates an average of $60bn/day of USTs and $40bn/day of MBS, which is fascinating because Cabana published this report in the early morning hours of Friday, and just a few hours later the Fed announced that it would follow precisely this schedule, tapering TSY QE from $75BN to $60BN and MBS from $50BN to $40, which announcement sent stocks sharply lower in the last 30 minutes of trading on Friday.

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    • (2) standard QE from April through December with $75bn/month of USTs and $50bn/month of MBS; this would help with the glut of upcoming UST supply.

    Fed facilities – The Fed has announced five facilities: CPFF, MMLF, PMCCF, SMCCF and TALF. Treasury made an initial investment of $10bn in these facilities, which can be 10x levered. Congress is set to allocate another $454bn to the Fed facilities, which can be 10x levered. This implies the max size of these facilities is roughly $5tn, and BofA anticipates 50% takeup spread across three months. In ’08, TALF saw 35% takeup, so assume about 1.5x takeup of facilities now vs ’08 levels.

    Discount window and PDFC – Assume discount window and PDCF use peaks at around $120bn in the near term then gradually declines.

    FX swap lines – Assume FX swap line use peaks around $200bn, and current 84 day operations roll off in June.

    While the former NY Fed staffer acknowledges that there is an elevated uncertainty around these estimates, he sees the risks to his estimates “as skewed to the high side.”

    In short, once you start helicopter money you never stop.

    * * *

    Finally, what are the market implications from the Fed going full BOJ. There are three, as the Fed’s launch of helicopter money in conjunction with the treasury should support:

    1. liquidity – the sharp reserve increase will allow for funding markets to operate in state of abundant liquidity
    2. low long-term US rates – As even Cabana admits, “the Fed’s large holdings of US Treasuries will amount to COVID-19 stimulus debt monetization and support low longer-term UST yields”, in short after 11 years of debate whether the Fed is or isn’t monetizing debt, we finally have a clear answer and guess what, the tinfoil conspiracy blog won.
    3. Corporate bonds (i.e. LQD) will benefit from Fed credit programs.

    One final point: buy physical gold, lots of it (pay whatever premium over spot is asked), because the real purpose behind the Fed’s helicopter money which miraculously came at the “right” time – just as the economy was about to tailspin into a recession even without covid-19- courtesy of a virus which prompted a coordinated global reset and the launch of helicopter money, will allow the Fed to commence the endgame of fiat currencies. In the process, the Fed will inject $4.5 trillion into capital markets which will eventually trickle down to the economy.

    The endgame is simple: an initial deflationary bust followed by hyperinflation, first in asset markets and soon after, as the Fed triples down on helicopter money until it eventually buys gold outright in the final dollar devaluation, everywhere else. 


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 03/28/2020 – 19:10

  • Trump Says "No Quarantine Necessary" For NY, NJ And CT As US Death Toll Tops 2,000: Live Updates
    Trump Says “No Quarantine Necessary” For NY, NJ And CT As US Death Toll Tops 2,000: Live Updates

    Summary:

    • Global case total tops 600k
    • Global COVID-19 death toll tops 30k
    • US death toll tops 2k
    • After Trump earlier said he was weighing enforceable quarantine order for all the tri-state area, late on Sunday he said that “on the recommendation of the White House CoronaVirus Task Force, and upon consultation with the Governor’s of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut” he would not be imposing a quarantine.
    • Japan fast-tracks approval of treatment drug for COVID-19
    • Third UK minister self-quarantines after showing symptoms of virus
    • Calif. death toll tops 100
    • Trump tells NBC reporter that quarantines of New York, NJ & Conn. were “possible”
    • Axios reports infant dies in Chicago after testing positive for COVID-19
    • Italy case total surpasses China
    • Spain reports deadliest day yet
    • UK case total climbs north of 17k
    • France reports another 5k cases
    • Navy hospital ships leave for New York, LA
    • Abe says he’s “just barely avoiding” declaring a national emergency
    • Yale University slammed for denying aid to city of New Haven
    • Shinzo Abe promises unprecedented stimulus package
    • Trump gives Pentagon power to call up retired soldiers and reservists
    • NYPD detective dies from COVID-19
    • Italian centennarian survives battle with COVID-19

    *   *   *

    Update (2025ET): Have sparked fears earlier that Trump would impose a full blown quarantine on the tri-state area, late on Sunday the president tweeted that a “quarantine will not be necessary” (for now).

    Trump’s decision is likely in response to Governor Andrew Cuomo’s fiery objection, who said that any federal quarantine on metropolitan New York would wreak havoc on commerce and markets and be a declaration of war against the states. “It would be chaos and mayhem,” Cuomo said Saturday on CNN, responding to President Donald Trump’s suggestion that such a move could be made very soon. ”I don’t think it’s legal.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    * * *

    Update (1845ET): After doubling in two days, the death toll from COVID-19 in the US has finally topped 2,000.

    Meanwhile, in New York, the state worst hit by the outbreak, Gov. Cuomo has said that the outbreak will peak in “14 to 21 days.” While the situation in New York worsens, the surgeon general warned that Detroit, New Orleans and Chicago are quickly developing into “hot spots,” New Orleans in particular has been trending in a worrying direction for days.

    Of the 17,412 tests run by New York State on Friday, 44% of them (7,681) were positive.

    *   *   *

    Update (1700ET): Calif. Gov. Gavin Newsom just announced that California’s death toll from COVID-19 has topped 100, with 101 deaths statewide.

    Meanwhile, in Chicago, Axios reports that an infant less than 1 year old has died of COVID-19 in the city. After state officials in California denied reports earlier in the week about an infant reportedly passing away in LA County after testing positive for the virus, this would be the first confirmed infant death in the US…if it’s confirmed, that is.

    Most recorded cases in Illinois have been found in the Chicago area and surrounding counties. The state health department has reported 3,491 COVID-19 cases as of Saturday, including 47 deaths.

    *   *   *

    Update (1624ET): COVID-19 has killed more than 30,000 human beings around the world.

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    It looks like those last 300+ deaths out of France pushed it over the top.

    Though Italy has been carrying a lot of weight on the deaths front lately…

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    *   *   *

    Update (1600ET): Want to see something funny? Watch what happens when journalists from Taiwan question the WHO about comments it made regarding Taiwan’s response to the virus.

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    *   *    *

    Update (1500ET): France reports just shy of 5k new cases, bringing its total to 37,575, and another ~300 deaths, bringing its death toll to 2,314.

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    Meanwhile, the number of Italian cases of COVID-19 climbed by 6.9%, the slowest daily rate of increase since Italy’s lockdown began.

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    Two weeks since reporting its first case, Cameroon total cases climbed to 99 on Saturday, as African countries report surprisingly slow spread of the virus despite their relatively poor infrastructure.

    *   *   *

    Update (1420ET): As the death toll skyrockets, Spanish officials said they would need to tighten quarantine rules, and are now ordering all people to stay indoors at all times, unless they’re going to work at an “essential” job. We expect the bare minimum of exceptions (trips outside permitted to get food) will continue.

    Meanwhile, in France, large numbers of the public continue to ignore the quarantine.

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    Though France’s health minister said Saturday that the country could soon face shortages of critical drugs, he assured the public that an order for 1 billion masks had recently been put in to ‘China’.

    In Italy, the tone was far more somber.

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    *   *   *

    Update (1412ET): The coronavirus outbreak has pitted many interests against one another in the scramble for resources. But some of the most flagrant examples of communal selfishness so far have occurred in ritzy Connecticut, where a town full of wealthy bankers and doctors shut down a drive thru testing center (well, they stopped it from opening in the first place), and now, Yale University is at the center of a controversy after refusing to allow the town access to any of its (now empty) facilities to help the community fight off the virus.

    Last fall, a gang of idealistic Yale students interrupted the Yale-Harvard Game, one of the few traditions that locals actually enjoy, with an lengthy “interruption” to protest climate change, or whatever. But on this issue, they have been oddly silent (maybe because they’re all back home living in their parents’ basements right now).

    One reporter remarked on twitter that this would be an excellent opportunity for Yale alumni to pressure the school into doing the right thing and helping the community.

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    *   *   *

    Update (1400ET): Abe said Saturday that he’s at a precarious stage, and that the government is only barely avoiding declaring an emergency, he said told reporters Saturday evening.

    *   *   *

    Update (1355ET): Trump just confirmed that he’s strongly considering quarantines…after he told a reporter with a camera exactly that.

    So in case you didn’t get the memo…

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    Cuomo says he hasn’t heard anything about a quarantine order.

    And the governors of Connecticut and New Jersey haven’t said anything.

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    Gov Phil Murphy has been tweeting up a storm, but nothing about the quarantine issue.

    *    *   *

    Update (1245ET): As the US scrambles to contain COVID-19 as New York emerges as the nation’s No. 1 hotspot, US media are reporting that President Trump is considering a national “quarantine” order affecting the entire tri-state area – that is, all of NYC, the greater New York area, north and most of central New Jersey and all of southern Connecticut.

    NBC News described it as an “enforceable” quarantine, implying that the national guard, which has been deployed in the area, might be tasked with enforcing it.

    In a video that surfaced a few minutes later, Trump can be heard telling an NBC reporter that he was looking at quarantines of New York, and “probably” New Jersey and parts of Connecticut. “They’re having problems down in Florida…and we don’t want that,” Trump said.

    A few minutes later, Gov. Cuomo chimed in, telling a reported that he had no idea what Trump was talking about, even though Trump claimed to have just spoken to the governor, presumably about the possibility of a quarantine, which Trump said might be announced “some time today.”

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    Meanwhile, in New York, the NYPD has confirmed the death of a detective, the first on-duty serviceman to die from the virus. Another ~500 or so NYPD employees (that includes officers and civilians) have also been diagnosed.

    *   *   *

    Update (1220ET): In Lombardy, the number of confirmed cases climbed by 2,117 to 39,415, a sign that the outbreak might be starting to slow. But the death toll climbed by a startling 542 to 5,944.

    *   *   *

    Update (1100ET): The Pentagon is taking steps to clarify its powers now that it has the ability to call up reservists and retirees.

    • PENTAGON SAYS IT HAS ACCELERATED THE PROCESS FOR HOW DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE AUTHORIZES THE USE OF NATIONAL GUARD FORCES UNDER TITLE 32

    Additionally, Italy has now passed China in total infections, with 86,498 to China’s 81,996. Following several days of back-and-forth criticism with Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, whom President Trump infamously referred to as “that woman” and criticized for not taking the outbreak seriously enough, the president finally granted her request for a disaster declaration, as well as one for Massachusetts, according to White House statements released Saturday. And the Italian death toll has passed 10,000, hitting 10,023.

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    Finally, some good news out of Italy: A centenarian from northern Italy has reportedly been released from a hospital after a battle with COVID-19 that he managed to survive despite being a high-risk candidate with a weak immune system..

    The man, identified only as “Mr. P”, was admitted to the hospital last week and released on Thursday, according to Gloria Lisi, the deputy mayor of the city of Rimini, told the local Italian language press.

    *    *   *

    Yesterday, the US reached a critical milestone: it became the first country to record more than 100,000 cases of COVID-19, the illness caused by the novel coronavirus.

    Though more people were almost certainly infected in China – epidemiologists have estimated that hundreds of thousands were likely infected in Wuhan alone – the surge in America’s testing capacity, something that’s only going to continue to improve thanks to a slate of new rapid-response tests are hitting the market, means the US will almost certainly record the largest number of infected patients going forward.

    Already, the global total of confirmed cases surpassed 600,000 overnight, thanks mostly to the US, though Spain and Italy also reported large numbers of new cases and deaths reaffirming that the lockdowns in each of their respective countries are far from over.

    A chart produced by the New York Times and published last night sparked a heated debate online as journalists, scientists and other wannabe ‘experts’ weighed in on the possibility that the outbreaks in New York City, Detroit and New Orleans might be more severe than what Italy has seen in Lombardy.

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    Source: New York Times

    Meanwhile, Spain recorded its deadliest day so far, but new infections are slowing after two weeks of lockdown. The Spanish Health Ministry reported 832 new deaths, bringing the country’s death toll to 5,690 as of early Saturday, a 17% jump. The number of confirmed cases climbed to 72,248 from 64,059. Spain now has the second-highest number of deaths, outside of Italy.

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    In the latest hint at how the outbreak-induced recession will reverberate through secondary and tertiary industries, Airbnb confirmed on Friday that it’s suspending all third-party marketing work in an attempt to save some $800 million, one of several initiatives that it hopes will save the company lots of money during the crisis. As UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Health Secretary Matt Hancock struggle to continue performing their duties after being diagnosed with COVID-19, Fitch downgraded the UK’s credit rating from AA to AA-, citing the budget impact of the coronavirus pandemic and continued uncertainty over Brexit.

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    Source: FT

    As a third UK cabinet minister, Scottish Secretary Alister Jack, announces plans to quarantine after showing mild symptoms, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe pledged on Saturday to fight the coronavirus outbreak with an economic package of “an unprecedented scale” as Japan reports a sudden resurgence of cases, many of which have been travel-related.

    On Saturday, the UK case total climbed to 17,089, while 160 new deaths were confirmed, bringing the UK death total above 1,000, to 1,019.

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    According to Nikkei Asian Review, Abe said that in addition to pushing through his “boldest-ever” economic stimulus package, his government will deliver speedy approval of the flu drug Avigan as a treatment for those infected with COVID-19.

    “We are on the brink,” Abe said at a news conference, referring to the possibility of an explosion of COVID-19 cases in Japan after 63 new infections were confirmed on Saturday in Tokyo, a third-consecutive day where authorities confirmed more than 40 new cases.

    Abe also stressed that Japan must be ready for a “long-term battle” to keep COVID-19 from surging out of control and overwhelming health care systems, as it’s beginning to do in Italy and other places, like NYC.

    Still, he said “now is not an emergency” and called on citizens to continue taking steps such as avoiding large gatherings to limit infections.

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    Abe

    Regarding the economy, Abe said that his government will formulate a “strong stimulus package of unprecedented scale” to lessen this blow to businesses and individuals brought about by the coronavirus. All of this comes after Tokyo’s governor warned about the prospect for an “unprecedented” outbreak if nothing is done.

    In addition to boosting spending on medical infrastructure and other necessities, Abe said a special measure will be established to allow for the deferral for up to one year of tax and social insurance premium payments to support corporations suffering from constricted cash flow. Also, interest-free and unsecured lending will be expanded to assist them, he said. All of this should trickle down to deferred tax payments for individuals as well.

    Meanwhile, the New York Post has been keeping careful track of how many New Yorkers have been dying from COVID-19, and on Saturday, the paper determined that for the past two days, New Yorkers have been dying at a rate of “one every 17 minutes”. That’s up from one an hour nearly a week ago.

    On both Thursday and Friday, another 84 people died in the city from the coronavirus, as the number of positive cases and of those who are critically ill also climbed. Total citywide coronavirus cases rose to 26,697, a 4.4% increase from the 25,573 reported Friday morning.

    Over in Asia, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong have recorded unnerving bursts of new cases over the past couple of weeks, but these ‘aftershock’ outbreaks appear to have quieted down in South Korea, while more cases have been confirmed in Singapore, Hong Kong and Tokyo.

    Meanwhile, In Seoul, authorities marked a new milestone in the fight against the virus as, for the first time since the start of the outbreak, the number of coronavirus patients being discharged has outnumbered those currently undergoing treatment. Some 4,811 South Koreans have recovered from the virus as of Saturday, while 4,500 patients still remain in isolation and are undergoing treatment.

    In the US, Trump signed the CARES Act into law last night, approving direct payments of $1,200 to millions of Americans, including those earning up to $75,000, and an additional $500 per child. It will substantially expand jobless aid, providing an additional 13 weeks and a four-month enhancement of benefits, and for the first time will extend the payments to freelancers and gig workers, an extraordinary step that will go a long way toward quelling the concerns of all those freelance writers who live off handouts from their parents and the occasional paycheck in Brooklyn.

    However, across the US, experts are pointing at Abe and Japan as examples of what might happen if the entire country starts going back to normal before the outbreak is truly under control.

    As Navy hospital ships head to New York and the West Coast, President Trump on Friday night gave Defense Secretary Mark Esper the power to call up national guardsmen and army medics to serve in the effort to combat the virus. The president said Friday night that the decision will “allow us to mobilize medical, disaster and emergency response personnel to help wage our battle against the virus by activating thousands of experienced service members including retirees.”

    The ships will travel to New York and Los Angeles.

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    The order will affect reservists and “certain Individual Ready Reserve” members, chief Pentagon spokesman Jonathan Rath Hoffman said in a statement released just after midnight on Saturday morning. The Individual Ready Reserve comprises former active-duty and reserve service members who are commonly considered ‘out of the military’ and thus rarely recalled.

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    It almost sounds like the start of an action movie: somewhere, in the remote mountain west, a former ace army medic is hearing the sound of tires crunching gravel in his driveway…

    After President Trump’s approval rating jumped to record highs in the wake of the crisis, some early poll results from this past week suggest that Trump’s insistence that the US get back to work “by Easter” has dented confidence in his handling of the crisis.

    Per WaPo, Trump didn’t clarify whether anyone will be involuntarily recalled to duty, but said some retirees have “offered to support the nation in this extraordinary time of need.”

    A Pentagon spokesman told WaPo that the order was still being reviewed, and that generally, these members will be persons in Headquarters units and persons with high demand medical capabilities whose call-up would not adversely affect their civilian communities.

    “It’s really an incredible thing to see,” Trump said. “It’s beautiful.”

    Though we suspect that, like his decision to invoke the Defense Production Act, though he finally did invoke it to try and boss around GM.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 03/28/2020 – 18:51

  • "It's A Different World Now" – The Global Solvency Issue Is Becoming Systemic
    “It’s A Different World Now” – The Global Solvency Issue Is Becoming Systemic

    Via Doug Noland’s Credit Bubble Bulletin blog,

    Being an analyst of Credit and Bubbles over the past few decades has come with its share of challenges. Greater challenges await. I expect to dedicate the rest of my life to defending Capitalism. One of the great tragedies from the failure of this multi-decade monetary experiment will be the loss of faith in free market Capitalism – along with our institutions more generally.

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    Somehow, we must convince younger generations that the culprit was unsound finance.

    And it’s absolutely fixable.

    Deeply flawed, experimental central banking was fundamental to dysfunctional markets and resulting deep financial and economic structural impairment. The Scourge of Inflationism. If we just start learning from mistakes, we can get this ship headed in the right direction.

    Over the years, I’ve argued for “rules-based” central banking that would sharply limit the Federal Reserve’s role both in the markets and real economy. The flaw in “discretionary” central banking was identified generations ago: One mistake leads invariably to only bigger blunders.

    What commenced with Alan Greenspan’s market-supporting assurances of liquidity and asymmetric rate policy this week took a dreadful turn for the worse: Open-end QE, PMCCF, SMCCF, MMLF, CPFF, MSBLP, TALF… They’re going to run short of acronyms. Our central bank has taken the plunge into buying corporate bond ETFs, with equities ETFs surely not far behind. The Fed’s balance sheet expanded $586 billion – in a single week ($1.1 TN in four weeks!) – to a record $5.25 TN. Talk has the Fed’s new “Main Street Business Lending Program” leveraging $400 billion of (this week’s $2.2 TN) fiscal stimulus into a $4.0 TN lending operation. Having years back unwaveringly set forth, the ride down the slippery slope of inflationism has reached warp speed careening blindly toward a brick wall.

    The Fed “very alert about financial risk”? What exactly has the Fed been “looking at at much more detail”? Financial excess? Speculative leveraging? Mounting vulnerabilities in the derivatives complex, the ETF universe, corporate leverage? Global hedge fund leverage? Highly levered mortgage companies? We’ve now witnessed two historic bouts of market illiquidity and dislocation – exposing massive speculative leveraging – and Dr. Bernanke sticks resolutely with his “global savings glut” thesis. Central banks have during this cycle created more than $16 TN of new “money,” for heaven’s sake. Of course it’s been “a monetary policy thing.”

    I’ve always viewed Bernanke as a decent man. But as a central banker – as the mastermind for the terminal phase of a runaway global monetary experiment – he’s been a disaster. His analytical framework is so flawed it’s difficult to comprehend the amount of power and discretion placed in his hands. It was Bernanke that invoked the government printing press to resolve whatever might ail the markets or economy. His crackpot theories that the Fed’s failure to print sufficient money supply after the ’29 stock market crash caused the Great Depression should have been sternly rebuked years ago. Worst of all, Dr. Bernanke specifically used the risk markets (stocks, corporate Credit, derivatives and such) as the primary mechanism for post-Bubble system reflation. The former Fed chief is the father of “QE,” “helicopter money,” and the ETF complex that took the world by storm.

    Documenting for posterity the ever-lengthening list of lending facilities, this week from the Federal Reserve:

    “The Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility (PMCCF) for new bond and loan issuance and the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility (SMCCF) to provide liquidity for outstanding corporate bonds.”

    “The SMCCF will purchase in the secondary market corporate bonds issued by investment grade U.S. companies and U.S.-listed exchange-traded funds whose investment objective is to provide broad exposure to the market for U.S. investment grade corporate bonds.”

    “The Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (MMLF) to include a wider range of securities, including municipal variable rate demand notes (VRDNs) and bank certificates of deposit.”

    “Facilitating the flow of credit to municipalities by expanding the Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF) to include high-quality, tax-exempt commercial paper as eligible securities.”

    “…A Main Street Business Lending Program to support lending to eligible small-and-medium sized businesses, complementing efforts by the SBA.”

    “The TALF is a credit facility authorized under section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act intended to help meet the credit needs of consumers and small businesses by facilitating the issuance of asset-backed securities (“ABS”) and improving the market conditions for ABS more generally… The TALF SPV initially will make up to $100 billion of loans available.”

    The Fed was to expand its assets by at least $625 billion this week. In concert with global central bankers, unprecedented liquidity operations coupled with a massive U.S. fiscal program was sufficient to reverse collapsing global markets. Once reversed, there was more than ample fodder from the reversal of short positions and market hedges to power a historic market spike (“biggest three-day surge since 1931”).

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    Chairman Jay Powell, appearing Thursday on the Today Show: “There’s nothing fundamentally wrong with our economy. Quite the contrary. The economy performed very well right through February. We’ve got a fifty-year low in unemployment for the last couple years. So, we start in a very strong position. This isn’t that something is wrong with the economy.”

    Powell’s optimism was echoed by regional Fed presidents: Dallas’s Robert Kaplan: “We were strong before we went into this, and we believe that we’ve got a great chance to come out of this very strong.” Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic: “The economy started at a great place.”

    The Fed believes it has “temporarily stepped in to provide loans” – for a system considered fundamentally sound and robust. I am an analyst and not a pessimist. But, most unfortunately, the opposite holds true. U.S. and global economies were unstable “Bubble Economies” fueled by Credit and financial excess, most notably by unprecedented asset market speculative leverage. Fed assets surpassed $5 TN this week, and I’ll be stunned if they ever again fall below this level. I am reminded of Fed officials having actually expected in 2011 that its “exit strategy” would return the Federal Reserve balance sheet to near pre-crisis levels – only to double assets again in about three years to $4.5 TN.

    The Austrian “Bubble Economy” concept will be invaluable as we analyze dynamics going forward. From the economic perspective, a decade of ultra-loose financial conditions incentivized businesses to over-borrow – from multinational corporations, to mid- and small business to sole proprietorships. Tens of thousands of unprofitable (and negative cashflow generating) enterprises proliferated throughout the economy – from Silicon Valley “tech Bubble 2.0,” to shale, alternative energy, biotech, media, entertainment and leisure, and so on. Ultra-loose financial conditions stoked over- and malinvestment, while generally distorting business spending patterns.

    Confounding post-Bubble financial and economic landscapes will create investment decision mayhem.

    U.S. and global economies are severely maladjusted – and ravenous Credit gluttons. Importantly, this ensures Trillions of monetary stimulus along with Trillions of fiscal spending will be absorbed as if dumping buckets of water onto the scorching desert sand.

    Stimulus will for a time sustain scores of uneconomic enterprises, at the cost of prolonging the workout process. Nonetheless, with Bubbles popping in shale, technology, leisure and entertainment and elsewhere, millions of job losses will prove permanent.

    Negative wealth effects will also wreak havoc on consumer spending patterns. From the Fed’s Z.1 report, Household Net Worth (Assets less Liabilities) ended 2019 at a record $118.4 TN, having ballooned $23 TN, or 21%, over the past three years. Household Net Worth ended 2019 at a record 545% of GDP, up from previous cycle peaks 492% (Q1 2007) and 446% (Q1 2000). Household holdings of Equities (Z1: Equities and Mutual Funds) ended Q4 at $30.8 TN, a record 142% of GDP (up from 2007’s 102% and 2000’s 117%).

    Now comes the downside.

    1. Easy gains from asset inflation are spent more freely than incomes.

    2. Changing spending patterns will expose the fragile underbelly of the “services” and consumption-based U.S. economy.

    3. Meanwhile, some of the most expensive real estate markets in the country will suffer collapsing demand, with major effects on construction, spending and confidence (not to mention loan losses).

    One of the many lasting pandemic consequences will be a reassessment of living in New York City, San Francisco, Los Angeles and other densely-populated urban centers. Beyond negative asset market wealth effects, I expect a prolonged impact on high-income earners (i.e. Wall Street compensation, executive pay, company stock rewards, Silicon Valley, entertainment and media, real estate-related, etc.). Expect some upper-end real estate Bubbles – having persevered even through the last crisis – to finally succumb. The bursting of an unprecedented nationwide commercial real estate Bubble will have major impacts on construction and the finances of owners of real estate, as well as on the underlying loans, securitizations and derivatives.

    Every segment of the economy will be impacted – many deeply. Expectations for a quick recovery are wishful thinking. And I doubt it will be possible for the Fed and global central bankers to step back from market liquidity support operations. We should not be surprised by ongoing weekly Fed balance sheet growth of several hundred billion. Household, business and market confidence have been shaken – and will be slow to recover. Markets have been conditioned over recent decades to anticipate rapid recovery. Confidence was bolstered this week by incredible “whatever it takes” measures. I’m just not convinced the necessity for ongoing rapid central bank expansion will prove as confidence inspiring.

    New York state reported its first coronavirus infection on March 1st. In less than four weeks, cases multiplied to 45,000. From the February 22nd CBB: “Cases tripled to nine Friday in Italy, with the first death reported.” Italy reported 919 deaths Friday, with total deaths of 9,134 and cases of 86,498.

    Governments have made very unfortunate missteps managing this pandemic. Many now look to the trajectory of China’s outbreak for hope that cases elsewhere will begin declining soon – with economic normalization commencing in earnest. Yet Western democracies have a major disadvantage in managing a pandemic. Societies would not tolerate health authorities going door to door checking for symptoms and removing those with fevers (sometimes kicking and screaming) for immediate transport to isolation facilities.

    One has only to view photos of a bustling Central Park or videos of crowded NYC subways to realize that “lock down” means something quite different in the U.S. than it does in Wuhan and Hubei Province. And only China has 170 million cameras and a sophisticated surveillance system – that in one case provided the ability to track an infected individual “down to the minute” as he traveled between provinces and along public transit in Nanjing.

    Bill Gates’ comments (CNN Coronavirus Townhall, March 26th) resonated. Having warned of pandemic risk in a 2015 TED talk, and after years of being fully immersed with the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation’s efforts in infectious disease control, vaccines and other global health initiatives, Gates possesses deep understanding of the subject matter. His view is that nationwide shutdowns and social distancing efforts must be strictly maintained until the number of active coronavirus cases declines to a low and manageable level. A cursory glance at one of the nationwide outbreak maps is sufficient to appreciate that the outbreak is currently out of control throughout the country.

    We’ll learn more next week, but it appears the White House is moving forward with a plan to gauge the outbreak across the country in a county by county effort to get the economy moving back toward capacity as soon as possible. It’s difficult for me to see governors, mayors, local government officials and vulnerable healthcare systems around the country supporting any relaxation of pandemic management efforts.

    Unfortunately, there will be no speedy economic recovery. Let’s hope the change of season offers some relief. But then there’s the loaming prospect for a second wave next fall and winter. Various experts, including Bill Gates, say a vaccine is a year to 18 months out. There’s going to be a hell of a battle in deciding how best to move the economy forward from here.

    As for the markets: markets will do what markets do. And global market dynamics are incredibly unsound. Count me skeptical that the biggest three-day rally (in the DJIA) since 1931 is a sign of health. I fully appreciate that “buy the dip, don’t be one” has been richly rewarding for a long time now. “There couldn’t be a better time to start investing [than] right now… Fortunes are going to be made out of this time… I can guarantee you that if you stay in and you just stick with it, three years from now you will be very, very happy that you did.” I’d be especially cautious with guarantees. Suze Orman (and most) have little appreciation for what is now unfolding. The younger generation has yet to experience a grueling protracted bear market. “Buy the dip” and “buy and hold” are poised to dishearten.

    Incredible central bank liquidity operations yanked global markets back from the precipice.

    In the three sessions, Tuesday to Thursday, the Dow surged 21.3% (ending the week up 12.8%). The week saw the S&P500 rally 10.3%, lagging the Japanese Nikkei’s 17.1% surge. Brazil’s Bovespa recovered 9.5%, as emerging equities bounced back. Mexico’s peso rallied 4.6%, leading an EM currency recovery. In “developed” currencies, the Norwegian krone rallied 11.6%, in another week of acute market instability.

    After spiking 44 bps the previous week, investment-grade Credit default swaps (CDS) this week sank 40 to 112 bps. The iShares investment-grade corporate bond ETF (LQD) surged 14.7%, more than reversing the previous week’s extraordinary 13.3% decline.

    The Fed’s move to open-ended QE coupled with corporate bond and bond ETF purchases was instrumental in arresting market collapse and sparking upside dislocation. This, along with expanded central bank swap arrangements, reversed global market illiquidity and panic.

    If I believed global markets were chiefly facing liquidity issues, I would be more hopeful.

    Illiquidity was pressing, and global central bankers responded with “whatever it takes” (and it took a lot). Believing the global Bubble has burst, I see the overarching issue more in terms of a developing Solvency Problem. Burning the midnight oil in homes around the globe, rating agency employees enjoy enviable job security. And that would be Credit analysts for corporations, financial institutions, municipalities, investment-grade bonds, junk debt, structured products and nations. Credit and Solvency issues will turn systemic.

    It’s a different world now. And while “whatever it takes” can accommodate speculative deleveraging and generally support market liquidity, The Solvency Problem will prove a historic challenge. The global economy has commenced a major downturn, hitting an already impaired global financial system. While markets enjoyed a recovery this week, EM debt is turning toxic. Energy-related debt is already toxic. Risk of general business and real estate debt turning toxic is growing rapidly.

    As I posited last week, I see an environment hostile to speculative leverage. This ensures a fundamental tightening of financial conditions and attendant downward pressure on global asset markets – securities and real estate, in particular. And with Bernanke’s 40-year bond yield “ski slope” at the end of a historic run, central banks have today little capacity for using rate cuts to reflate asset prices.

    The U.S. economy is in trouble. Europe is in greater trouble. EM economies face a disastrous combination of financial and economic hardship. And just as China moves to restart its economy, the massive Chinese export sector is confronting collapsing global demand. How long Beijing can hold things together is a critical issue. In the theme of bursting Bubble economies and unfolding Solvency Problems, no country faces greater challenges than China (with its deeply maladjusted economy and gargantuan financial sector).

    …read more here…


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 03/28/2020 – 18:45

  • This Is The Only Question Goldman's Clients Are Asking
    This Is The Only Question Goldman’s Clients Are Asking

    Let’s face it: after the fastest bear market crash in history, which saw the S&P500 tumble 35% from an all time high in less than a month, a faster and more chaotic decline than the crashes of either 1987 or 1929 which set off the Great Depression, culminating with the S&P500 hitting its lowest level since 2016 on Monday…

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    … this however was followed by the fastest “bull market” in history (as the WSJ declared), with the S&P surging 21% in just four days after the Fed used not a bazooka but a “nuclear bomb“, only to be followed by another near-limit down plunge on Friday…

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    nobody knows what is coming next, as policy makers literally throw everything – some $12 trillion of everything so far to be precise-  in hopes of avoiding a second Great Depression, if not for the economy then certainly for stocks.

    Sure, professional traders, strategists, analysts, and drive-by market tourists can speculate, as they have been all of last week …

    … but the reality is that the market is now making it up day by day, watching how many billions trillions in new monetary and fiscal stimulus will be thrown at it, and flailing wildly as what happens next is quite literally never seen before: an attempt to kill the global economy, only to restart it a few week (hopefully) later when the coronavirus pandemic is over.

    So great is the confusion among even professional traders, that according to Goldman’s chief equity strategist, David Kostin, after the S&P’s 18% rally this week, there is just one thing Goldman’s clients want to know: “are we past the bottom” and “has a new bull markets started.” 

    Goldman’s answer is that even though the bank still retains its 3000 SPX price target, “tactically, we believe it is likely that the market will turn lower in coming weeks.” To justify its bearishness, Goldman looks back at the global financial crisis and reminds us that “between September and December 2008, the S&P 500 experienced six distinct 1-6 trading day bounces of 9% or more, with some rallies as large as 19%. However, the actual market bottom did not occur until March 2009.”

    Here is how Kostin describes the unprecedented action of the past week:

    The pattern of market extremes continued this week. After closing at the lowest level since 2016 on Monday, the S&P 500 rallied by 9% on Tuesday. Stocks continued to rise on Wednesday and Thursday – amounting to the best three-day return since 1933 – as Congress passed a $2 trillion fiscal stimulus package meant to support workers and businesses in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. While initial jobless claims spiked to a record 3.3 million, investors have focused on the slowing of the virus’ spread in Italy and Washington state along with the apparent “do whatever it takes” stance of US monetary and fiscal policymakers.

    So, perhaps unsurprisingly, after the swift 18% rally in the earlier part of the week, Kostin says that the most common investor question this week was “has a new bull market started?”, an optimistic query which echoes the positive tone in most of Goldman’s conversations with clients alongside the bullish reversal in positioning, including a sharp rise in hedge fund net leverage and a steep decline in put/call ratios:

    For bulls, the combination of policy support and nascent discussion in Washington, D.C. of ending shutdowns within the next month, along with encouraging commentary from firms such as NKE and MU about early business resumption in China, has been enough to reduce the perceived downside risk.

    Finally, as we noted last week, the expectations of month-end equity demand from algorithmic and pension portfolio rebalancing further fueled the rally.

    Among this client boom, Goldman – which “strategically continues to expect the S&P 500 will rise to 3000 by year-end 2020 as economic and earnings growth rebound from their 2Q trough” is far more subdued:

    “We expect the equity risk premium will decline and valuations rise as investors gain visibility regarding the path toward the $170 of EPS we forecast for next year. Tactically, however, we believe it is likely that the market will turn lower in coming weeks, and caution short-term investors against chasing this rally.”

    Kostin adds that from a historical perspective, if the worst is indeed behind us, it would mark the fastest and most volatile bear market decline on record, while as noted at the top of the post, the mere 23 trading days between the equity market peak on February 19 and the hypothetical trough this past Monday would mark the fastest peak-to-trough bear market on record.

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    Alas, the bear market is hardly over because since the middle of the 19th century, the median bear market has taken 17 months to decline from peak to trough, and none has made the trip in fewer than three months. However, history also shows that bear markets are often punctuated by sharp bounces before resuming their downward trajectory. For example, looking at the last great global capital markets crash, “between September and December 2008, the S&P 500 experienced six distinct bounces of 9% or more, with some rallies as large as 19%, during the course of between one and six trading days.”

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    Just like now, most bounces involved optimism around monetary or fiscal policy support. However, the market low did not occur until until March 2009, when the pace of economic contraction finally began to slow (and Obama came on TV saying to buy stocks, something Trump has been doing every single day for the past three years).

    * * *

    So when will the market bottom be hit? Here Goldman chimes in its own views around a potential turning point in the path of the market during this pandemic, focusing on a three-part checklist:

    1. The viral spread: While investors have been encouraged by trends in China, South Korea, and Italy, the viral infection  “curve” in the United States remains unbent, with widespread disagreement about when to expect the number of cases to decline. Some investors believe that the virus will be under control within a matter of weeks, but others believe that containment measures will affect daily life for more than a year while vaccines are being developed and tested. While this uncertainty persists, Goldman sees little likelihood of significant further multiple expansion.
    2. Fiscal and monetary policy: Goldman’s political economists describe the “Phase 3” fiscal legislation passed by Congress this week as “large and well-targeted.” Meanwhile, the Fed’s most recent extraordinary measures have substantially reduced the risk of a “full-blown credit crunch.” However, while the willingness of policymakers to use all the tools at their disposal is clear, only time will tell to what extent the actions succeed in limiting defaults, closures, and layoffs.
    3. Positioning and flows: Absent improving fundamentals, Kostin looks to investor positioning for an indication that selling pressure will slow and help stocks to bottom. In recent weeks, Goldman has highlighted that its US Equity Sentiment  Indicator, which combines nine measures of equity positioning, had declined to just -1.4 standard deviations vs. -2 to -3 standard deviation readings at the troughs of other corrections this cycle. This week, the metric rose to -0.7, suggesting more selling lies ahead.

    There is one more factor to consider: the effective and indefinite shutdown of the what has been the single biggest source of stock buying for the past decade: buybacks.

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    As Kostin explicitly warns, in addition to investor money flow, reduced buyback activity from US corporates is also likely to be a headwind to US equities. By the count of the Goldman Sachs Buyback Desk, nearly 50 US companies have suspended  existing share repurchase authorizations in the past two weeks, representing $190 billion of buybacks or nearly 25% of the 2019 total.

    Worse, the ongoing collapse in cash flows and select restrictions mandated as part of the Phase 3 fiscal legislation suggest more suspensions are likely. Finally, repeated something we have said every single year since 2015, Kostin concludes that “buybacks have represented the single largest source of US equity demand in each of the last several years, and we believe higher volatility and lower equity valuations are among the likely consequences of reduced buybacks.” Now if only all those idiots “experts” in the media, on twitter and elsewhere who professed for years that buybacks have no impact on stock prices would have the courage to respond.

    * * *

    One final point from Hatzius: while he remains cautious from a tactical perspective, investors ask what to expect in terms of market performance if and when the S&P 500 has bottomed. According to the Goldmanite, “S&P 500 returns are typically strongest in the month following the trough, but remain above-average for an extended period of time. The S&P 500 has posted a median return of 15% during the month following the trough of eight bear or nearbear markets in the last 40 years. This has been followed by a 5% return between months 1-3 and another 5% from months 3-6.”

    Unsurprisingly, cyclical sectors usually outperform coming out of bear market troughs. Although no S&P 500 sector has a perfect hit rate of outperformance in three-month windows following market troughs, the Info Tech, Materials, Industrials, and Consumer Discretionary sectors have outperformed most frequently. Utilities and Consumer Staples have almost always lagged.

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    Finally, from a factor perspective, small-caps and anti-momentum laggards have outperformed following each of the eight troughs in the past 40 years. In general, during these periods “high quality” stocks with strong balance sheets and high returns on capital underperform, while Value stocks typically lead.

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    Which means that if there are still any value investors left out there after the unprecedented devastation their P&L has gone through in the past decade…

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    … they may finally make a buck one of these years.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 03/28/2020 – 18:17

  • 'Without Us, Instacart Will Grind to a Halt': Delivery Workers Threaten Strike Over Hazard Pay
    ‘Without Us, Instacart Will Grind to a Halt’: Delivery Workers Threaten Strike Over Hazard Pay

    Authored by Julia Conley via CommonDreams.org,

    Contract workers for Instacart, the Silicon Valley startup that employs 175,000 people to deliver groceries nationwide via its online platform, plan to walk off the job Monday if the company does not immediately provide them with hazard pay and increased safety precautions to protect them from the deadly coronavirus now ravaging the nation.

    As Vice first reported Friday, Instacart’s delivery workers are demanding hazard pay of $5 per order, free hand sanitizer and disinfecting wipes, and paid sick leave for workers with pre-existing medical conditions that would make the coronavirus, officially known as COVID-19, more dangerous if they contract it.

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    Instacart employee in North Hollywood, California. (Photo: Frederic J. BROWN / AFP via Getty Images)

    Considering delivery and grocery workers are just some of the millions of Americans considered “essential” during the public health crisis, “it’s especially cruel to withhold these guarantees from the very workers keeping millions of people fed,” tweeted Joelle Stangler, a field director for Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I-Vt.) presidential campaign.

    Like millions of sanitation workers, pharmacy and grocery store employees, and healthcare workers across the country, said Instacart worker and strike organizer Vanessa Bain, the company’s shoppers “are working on the frontlines in the capacity of first responders” — all while many other Americans are able to work from home.

    “Instacart’s corporate employees are provided with health insurance, life insurance, and paid time off and [are] also eligible for sick pay and paid family leave,” Bain told Vice. adding that the company’s gig workers “are afforded none of these protections.”

    “We deserve and demand better,” Bain added. “Without [us], Instacart will grind to a halt.” Instacart’s current sick leave policy for its delivery workers allows them to take two weeks of paid leave only if they test positive for the coronavirus. With tests in short supply and many Americans being told by healthcare providers that they don’t qualify for testing, Instacart could be forcing many of its shoppers to work while ill — or at least contagious.

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    Providing the workers with safety supplies and a fair paid sick leave policy “could actually save lives,” tweeted comedian Jon Hendren. Others on social media pledged solidarity with Instacart’s delivery workers and called on the company to meet the workers’ demands for safety measures.

    Bain slammed the company for “profiting significantly off of this pandemic” and planning to hire 300,000 new shoppers to keep up with demand and capitalize on the unemployment crisis resulting from the pandemic, while failing to ensure the safety of its current workers.

    “Instacart has been busy crafting a rather heroic public image as the saviors of families sheltered-in-place, and as the economic saviors of laid off workers,” Bain told Vice. “In truth, Instacart is providing no protection to its existing [gig workers].”

    The workers’ plan to strike—one which could bring Instacart’s business to a halt on Monday, said Medium writer Sarah Emerson, proves that “low-wage workers make the country run.”

    “Not CEOs in Silicon Valley who style themselves as benevolent dictators,” she tweeted. “Companies like Uber, Lyft, and Instacart would be nothing without the laborers they treat so poorly—people now deemed ‘essential’.” 


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 03/28/2020 – 17:55

  • 4 Passengers Die Aboard Carnival Cruise Ship Stranded Near Panama As Company Begs For Bailout Cash
    4 Passengers Die Aboard Carnival Cruise Ship Stranded Near Panama As Company Begs For Bailout Cash

    As cruise lines bitch about potentially being excluded from the US government bailouts passed as part of the US CARES act, one cruise ship owned by a Dutch company has reported some of the worst news we’ve heard aboard a cruise ship since the Diamond Princess departed Yokohama.

    On Friday, Holland America Line announced that four passengers had died aboard its cruise ship, the Zaandam, after it was refused entry into Chile nearly two weeks ago.

    The ship, which had 53 passengers and 85 crew members aboard displaying symptoms, was denied passage through the Panama Canal to allow easy access to Florida.

    The company, which, of course, is owned by cruise industry conglomerate Carnival Corp., didn’t say how many passengers and crew were tested, but said 53 passengers and 85 crew members are exhibiting symptoms consistent with the coronavirus. There are more than 1,800 people aboard the ship, the company said, along with four doctors and four nurses.

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    The Zaandam, which is currently anchored off the coast of Panama, is at least the third Carnival-owned ship to become the host of a COVID-19 outbreak. The Grand Princess, which made headlines after being barred entry to San Francisco, and the Diamond Princess, which required countries to evacuate passengers, including the US, are both run by Carnival-owned Princess cruises.

    What’s more galling, though, is that the Zaandam still departed on the cruise from Buenos Aires on March 7 after the panic about COVID-19 had already started. The ship was at sea when Carnival suspended all operations later in the month. And the cruise was supposed to end March 21, but the ship was refused permission to dock in Chile, and it’s now anchored off the coast of Panama, as authorities refuse to let it pass through the Panama Canal.

    The ship is telling the press it plans to disembark passengers in Florida, but exactly how it’s going to get there remains unclear.

    Another Holland America ship, the “Rotterdam,” met the Zaandam at sea on Thursday, the company said, before adding that it plans to transfer healthy patients from one ship to the other before they are exposed to COVID-19. All passengers and crew currently exhibiting symptoms will remain on the Zaandam. The company said it is following guidance from the CDC.

    In other words, everyone who has COVID-19 symptoms aboard that ship is screwed. They will be left twisting in the wind until the virus consumes virtually everybody on board. No one will take them in, at this point they don’t have the resources to sail around the tip of South America. Rumor has it that the State Department is planning another evacuation. That’s the last hope for the more than 100 people who are being virtually abandoned on board that boat.

    Cruise Lines have been criticized for their poor handling of the crisis. Former passengers of the Costa Luminosa have died after the company and captain of the ship did little to protect passengers. As the Miami Herald reported in partnership with ProPublica, the cruise lines that are now begging for bailouts did little or nothing to shield passengers once news of the outbreak became public. Once the ship made a stop, in Puerto Rico, passengers said the cruise officials didn’t let them know about the sick people on board until they were out at sea again the next day.

    “If the ship had told everyone what was going on, my dad and stepmom would have gotten off in Puerto Rico and flown home,” said Kevin Sheehan, Tom’s son. “But they didn’t tell them. So they stayed on the ship.”

    Because he stayed on the ship, Tom Sheehan died at sea, away from his family, as COVID-19 shut down all of his organ systems one by one.

    The ship couldn’t make its planned next stop in Antigua, so it continued across the Atlantic for a full week with no stops. Passengers were allowed unfettered access to the pools, gym and buffet the entire time, even after news broke at the end of the week about the test results – and the people still used them! They assumed it was safe since the company wasn’t saying anything.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 03/28/2020 – 17:30

  • NPR Station Is Censoring Trump As MSM Pushes Totalitarian Propaganda
    NPR Station Is Censoring Trump As MSM Pushes Totalitarian Propaganda

    Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

    A Seattle-based NPR station has stated that it will no longer be airing President Donald Trump’s coronavirus briefings because of “misinformation.”  As we’ve learned over the past several years, misinformation is simply the information they don’t want you to hear.

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    So what is the “misinformation” Trump has been saying? Obviously things the mainstream media wants to avoid, like asking people to remain calm, look at the objective facts and statistics about the pandemic and stop playing into the fear-mongering of the mainstream media. Fear has boosted mainstream media’s ratings in the past few weeks, adding to their profits. Reopening the economy means people would be at work or at least out doing things instead of watching the panic-laced headlines scroll across the TV.

    KUOW is monitoring White House briefings for the latest news on the coronavirus – and we will continue to share all news relevant to Washington State with our listeners,” the station tweeted.

    “However, we will not be airing the briefings live due to a pattern of false or misleading information provided that cannot be fact-checked in real-time.”

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    This habit of censorship needs to end now.  How about instead of censorship like totalitarian regimes resort to, we let people have access to all of the information and decide for themselves if it’s fact-based or not?  It’s time to provide people with facts, not fear. This is simply another tactic to panic Americans, who are already scared to death about the pandemic and the aftermath they’ll have to live through.

    Most recently, Trump has called for the lifting of social distancing guidelines in the near future, perhaps by Easter, even though public health professionals are still grappling with the spread of the virus. He also has made false claims about the availability of tests, the timeline for finding a vaccine and the potential benefits of a treatment that includes the ingredient chloroquine. While there is some promising study of its potential use, it has not been approved for treatment. NBC News reported on one Arizona man who died after ingesting chloroquine phosphate, and his wife said that they learned about its use after watching a briefing. –Yahoo

    First, calling for the lifting of the economic shutdown is not “misinformation.”  It should be done sooner and people should be responsible and not spread the disease, but destroying people’s lives to slow the spread is hardly a solution to the problem, which based on the objective statistics, isn’t that severe of a virus if you’re healthy.  It sure seems like NPR should be more worried about making sure people are getting objective facts rather than scaring them with the “reopening” of the economy.

    The news networks have been covering the briefings live, but CNN and MSNBC cut away from them on Monday, as the event stretched beyond an hour.

    Deputy White House Press Secretary Judd Deere criticized the channels for the decision as “disgraceful,” but an MSNBC spokesperson said that “after airing the press conference for over an hour we cut away because the information no longer appeared to be valuable to the important ongoing discussion around public health.” A spokeswoman for CNN said, “If the White House wants to ask for time on the network, they should make an official request. Otherwise, we will make our own editorial decisions.” –Yahoo

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    The truth is, politicians rarely if ever tell the truth, and the majority of the public knows that.  Censorship, on the other hand, is nothing more than a tool of totalitarian control. It comes out when the media desperately needs to control the narrative. Perhaps they fear that they are losing the attention of the public. It’s difficult to say, but censorship (like what China used at the beginning of the coronavirus outbreak) is never acceptable.

    For an eye-opening take on why social distancing has become the “new normal,” check out James Corbett’s Propaganda Watch:

    All that said, do the right thing and do not spread this virus around. Practice effective hand washing, teach your children how to properly wash their hands, and don’t be around other people if you’re sick.  Keep a safe distance between people while in public to avoid the virus, and if you feel more comfortable, wear a face mask.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 03/28/2020 – 17:05

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 28th March 2020

  • Suspending The Constitution: Police State Uses Crises To Expand Its Lockdown Powers
    Suspending The Constitution: Police State Uses Crises To Expand Its Lockdown Powers

    Authored by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    “That was when they suspended the Constitution. They said it would be temporary. There wasn’t even any rioting in the streets. People stayed home at night, watching television, looking for some direction. There wasn’t even an enemy you could put your finger on.”― Margaret Atwood, The Handmaid’s Tale

    You can always count on the government to take advantage of a crisis, legitimate or manufactured.

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    This coronavirus pandemic is no exception.

    Not only are the federal and state governments unraveling the constitutional fabric of the nation with lockdown mandates that are sending the economy into a tailspin and wreaking havoc with our liberties, but they are also rendering the citizenry fully dependent on the government for financial handouts, medical intervention, protection and sustenance.

    Unless we find some way to rein in the government’s power grabs, the fall-out will be epic.

    Everything I have warned about for years—government overreach, invasive surveillance, martial law, abuse of powers, militarized police, weaponized technology used to track and control the citizenry, and so on—has coalesced into this present moment.

    The government’s shameless exploitation of past national emergencies for its own nefarious purposes pales in comparison to what is presently unfolding.

    It’s downright Machiavellian.

    Deploying the same strategy it used with 9/11 to acquire greater powers under the USA Patriot Act, the police state—a.k.a. the shadow government, a.k.a. the Deep State—has been anticipating this moment for years, quietly assembling a wish list of lockdown powers that could be trotted out and approved at a moment’s notice.

    It should surprise no one, then, that the Trump Administration has asked Congress to allow it to suspend parts of the Constitution whenever it deems it necessary during this coronavirus pandemic and “other” emergencies.

    It’s that “other” emergencies part that should particularly give you pause, if not spur you to immediate action (by action, I mean a loud and vocal, apolitical, nonpartisan outcry and sustained, apolitical, nonpartisan resistance).

    In fact, the Department of Justice (DOJ) has been quietly trotting out and testing a long laundry list of terrifying powers that override the Constitution.

    We’re talking about lockdown powers (at both the federal and state level): the ability to suspend the Constitution, indefinitely detain American citizens, bypass the courts, quarantine whole communities or segments of the population, override the First Amendment by outlawing religious gatherings and assemblies of more than a few people, shut down entire industries and manipulate the economy, muzzle dissidents, “stop and seize any plane, train or automobile to stymie the spread of contagious disease,” reshape financial markets, create a digital currency (and thus further restrict the use of cash), determine who should live or die…

    You’re getting the picture now, right?

    These are powers the police state would desperately like to make permanent.

    Specifically, the DOJ wants to be able to indefinitely detain American citizens without trial. The DOJ also wants to be able to pause court proceedings and suspend the statute of limitations on criminal and civil cases.

    Both signify a clear violation of every right espoused in the Constitution, including habeas corpus.

    Habeas corpus, a fundamental tenet of English common law that guards against arbitrary and lawless state action, does not appear anywhere in the Bill of Rights. Its importance was such that it was enshrined in the Constitution itself. And it is of such magnitude that all other rights, including those in the Bill of Rights, are dependent upon it. Without habeas corpus, the significance of all other rights crumbles.

    The right of habeas corpus was important to the Framers of the Constitution because they knew from personal experience what it was like to be labeled enemy combatants, imprisoned indefinitely and not given the opportunity to appear before a neutral judge. Believing that such arbitrary imprisonment is “in all ages, the favorite and most formidable instrument of tyranny,” the Founders were all the more determined to protect Americans from such government abuses.

    Translated as “you should have the body,” habeas corpus is a legal action, or writ, by which those imprisoned unlawfully can seek relief from their imprisonment. Derived from English common law, habeas corpus first appeared in the Magna Carta of 1215 and is the oldest human right in the history of English-speaking civilization. The doctrine of habeas corpus stems from the requirement that a government must either charge a person or let him go free.

    While serving as President, Thomas Jefferson addressed the essential necessity of habeas corpus. In his first inaugural address on March 4, 1801, Jefferson said, “I know, indeed, that some honest men fear that a republican government cannot be strong; that this government is not strong enough.” But, said Jefferson, our nation was “the world’s best hope” and, because of our strong commitment to democracy, “the strongest government on earth.” Jefferson said that the sum of this basic belief was found in the “freedom of person under the protection of the habeas corpus; and trial by juries impartially selected. These principles form the bright constellation which has gone before us, and guided our steps through an age of revolution and reformation.”

    Throughout the twentieth century, the importance of the right of habeas corpus has repeatedly been confirmed by the U.S. Supreme Court. Yet 200-plus years after America’s founders risked their lives to secure their freedoms, we find ourselves right back where we started, with a government determined to strip us of every vestige of our freedoms.

    The DOJ’s latest request to Congress is merely a signal that the police state is ready to step out of the shadows, with the current national emergency being a convenient cover for their dastardly deeds.

    Bear in mind, however, that these powers the Trump Administration, acting on orders from the police state, are officially asking Congress to recognize and authorize barely scratch the surface of the far-reaching powers the government has already unilaterally claimed for itself.

    Unofficially, the police state has been riding roughshod over the rule of law for years now without any pretense of being reined in or restricted in its power grabs by Congress, the courts or the citizenry.

    As David C. Unger, observes in The Emergency State: America’s Pursuit of Absolute Security at All Costs:

    “For seven decades we have been yielding our most basic liberties to a secretive, unaccountable emergency state – a vast but increasingly misdirected complex of national security institutions, reflexes, and beliefs that so define our present world that we forget that there was ever a different America. … Life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness have given way to permanent crisis management: to policing the planet and fighting preventative wars of ideological containment, usually on terrain chosen by, and favorable to, our enemies. Limited government and constitutional accountability have been shouldered aside by the kind of imperial presidency our constitutional system was explicitly designed to prevent.”

    This rise of an “emergency state” that justifies all manner of government tyranny in the so-called name of national security is all happening according to schedule.

    The civil unrest, the national emergencies, “unforeseen economic collapse, loss of functioning political and legal order, purposeful domestic resistance or insurgency, pervasive public health emergencies, and catastrophic natural and human disasters,” the government’s reliance on the armed forces to solve domestic political and social problems, the implicit declaration of martial law packaged as a well-meaning and overriding concern for the nation’s security: the powers-that-be have been planning and preparing for such a crisis for years now, not just with active shooter drills and lockdowns and checkpoints and heightened danger alerts, but with a sensory overload of militarized, battlefield images—in video games, in movies, on the news—that acclimate us to life in a police state.

    Whether or not this particular crisis is of the government’s own making is not the point: to those for whom power and profit are everything, the end always justifies the means.

    The seeds of this present madness were sown several decades ago when George W. Bush stealthily issued two presidential directives that granted the president the power to unilaterally declare a national emergency, which is loosely defined as “any incident, regardless of location, that results in extraordinary levels of mass casualties, damage, or disruption severely affecting the U.S. population, infrastructure, environment, economy, or government functions.

    Comprising the country’s Continuity of Government (COG) plan, these directives (National Security Presidential Directive 51 and Homeland Security Presidential Directive 20), which do not need congressional approval, provide a skeletal outline of the actions the president will take in the event of a “national emergency.”

    Mind you, that national emergency can take any form, can be manipulated for any purpose and can be used to justify any end goal—all on the say so of the president.

    Just what sort of actions the president will take once he declares a national emergency can barely be discerned from the barebones directives. However, one thing is clear: in the event of a national emergency, the president will become a dictator because while the COG directives ensure the continuity of executive branch functions, they do not provide for repopulating or reconvening Congress or the Supreme Court.

    Thus, a debilitating attack would give unchecked executive, legislative and judicial power to the executive branch and its unelected minions. The country would then be subjected to martial law by default, and the Constitution and the Bill of Rights would be suspended.

    Originally devised as a plan for quickly restoring constitutional government, the COG concept arose during the Cold War. The fear was that a nuclear strike would paralyze the federal government.

    These concerns continued into the 1980s.

    Under President Ronald Reagan, an elaborate plan was created in which three teams consisting of a cabinet member, an executive chief of staff and military and intelligence officials would practice evacuating and directing a counter nuclear strike against the Soviet Union from a variety of high-tech, mobile command vehicles. If the president and vice president were both killed, one of these teams would take control, with the ranking cabinet official serving as president.

    Among those Reagan handpicked to advise an inexperienced and potentially incompetent successor in a time of crisis were Congressman Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld, then a business executive with G. D. Searle & Co. At least once a year during the 1980s, Cheney and Rumsfeld vanished on top-secret training missions, where each of the teams practiced evacuating and directing a counter nuclear strike against Russia.

    This all changed after the attacks of September 11, 2001, when it became clear that the assumptions that drove COG planning during the Cold War no longer applied: there would be no warning against a so-called “terrorist” attack. Thus, instead of relying on part-time bureaucrats and evacuation schematics, the Bush administration permanently appointed executive officials, stationed outside the capital, to run a shadow government.

    The U.S. military has reportedly already been given standby orders under COG for this present coronavirus pandemic.

    The plans for the shadow government administered by those who run the Deep State are more elaborate than many realize. Massive underground bunkers the size of small cities are sprinkled throughout the country for the government elite to escape to in the event of a national emergency. Mount Weather, near Bluemont, Va., is one of a number of such facilities. Built into the side of a mountain, this bunker contains, among other things, a hospital, crematorium, dining and recreation areas, sleeping quarters, reservoirs of drinking and cooling water, an emergency power plant and a radio/television studio.

    There is also an Office of the Presidency at Mount Weather, which regularly receives top-secret national security information from all the federal departments and agencies. This facility was largely unknown to everyone, including Congress, until it came to light in the mid-1970s. Military personnel connected to the bunker have refused to reveal any information about it, even before congressional committees. In fact, Congress has no oversight, budgetary or otherwise, on Mount Weather, and the specifics of the facility remain top-secret.

    What is the bottom line here?

    We are, for all intents and purposes, one crisis away from having a full-fledged authoritarian state emerge from the shadows, at which time democratic government will be dissolved and the country will be ruled by an unelected bureaucracy. 

    This is exactly the kind of mischief that Thomas Jefferson warned against when he cautioned, “In questions of power, then, let no more be heard of confidence in man, but bind him down from mischief by the chains of the Constitution.”

    Power corrupts.

    Absolute power corrupts absolutely.

    Thus far, we have at least pretended that the government abides by the Constitution.

    Those who wrote our Constitution sought to ensure our freedoms by creating a document that protects our God-given rights at all times, even when we are engaged in war, whether that is a so-called war on terrorism, a so-called war on drugs, a so-called war on illegal immigration, or a so-called war on disease.

    The attempts by each successive presidential administration to rule by fiat merely plays into the hands of those who would distort the government’s system of checks and balances and its constitutional separation of powers beyond all recognition.

    Remember, these powers do not expire at the end of a president’s term. They remain on the books, just waiting to be used or abused by the next political demagogue.

    So, too, every action taken by Trump and his predecessors to weaken the system of checks and balances, sidestep the rule of law, and expand the power of the executive branch of government has made us that much more vulnerable to those who would abuse those powers in the future.

    Although the Constitution invests the President with very specific, limited powers, in recent years, American presidents (Trump, Obama, Bush, Clinton, etc.) have claimed the power to completely and almost unilaterally alter the landscape of this country for good or for ill.

    The Trump Administration’s willingness to circumvent the Constitution by leaning heavily on the president’s so-called emergency powers constitutes a gross perversion of what limited power the Constitution affords the executive branch.

    The powers amassed by each successive president through the negligence of Congress and the courts—powers which add up to a toolbox of terror for an imperial ruler—empower whomever occupies the Oval Office to act as a dictator, above the law and beyond any real accountability.

    As law professor William P. Marshall explains,every extraordinary use of power by one President expands the availability of executive branch power for use by future Presidents.” Moreover, it doesn’t even matter whether other presidents have chosen not to take advantage of any particular power, because “it is a President’s action in using power, rather than forsaking its use, that has the precedential significance.”

    In other words, each successive president continues to add to his office’s list of extraordinary orders and directives, expanding the reach and power of the presidency and granting him- or herself near dictatorial powers.

    This abuse of presidential powers has been going on for so long that it has become the norm, the Constitution be damned.

    We no longer have a system of checks and balances.

    “The system of checks and balances that the Framers envisioned now lacks effective checks and is no longer in balance,” concludes Marshall.

    “The implications of this are serious. The Framers designed a system of separation of powers to combat government excess and abuse and to curb incompetence. They also believed that, in the absence of an effective separation-of-powers structure, such ills would inevitably follow. Unfortunately, however, power once taken is not easily surrendered.”

    All of the imperial powers amassed by Barack Obama and George W. Bush and now Trump—to kill American citizens without due process, to detain suspects (including American citizens) indefinitely, to strip Americans of their citizenship rights, to carry out mass surveillance on Americans without probable cause, to wage wars without congressional authorization, to suspend laws during wartime, to disregard laws with which he might disagree, to conduct secret wars and convene secret courts, to sanction torture, to sidestep the legislatures and courts with executive orders and signing statements, to direct the military to operate beyond the reach of the law, to establish a standing army on American soil, to operate a shadow government, to declare national emergencies for any manipulated reason, and to act as a dictator and a tyrant, above the law and beyond any real accountability—have become a permanent part of the president’s toolbox of terror.

    These presidential powers—acquired through the use of executive orders, decrees, memorandums, proclamations, national security directives and legislative signing statements and which can be activated by any sitting president—enable past, president and future presidents to operate above the law and beyond the reach of the Constitution.

    Think on this: the presidential election is right around the corner.

    Suddenly, the improbable possibility of any incumbent president attempting to extend the police state’s stranglehold on power by using current events to justify postponing or doing away with an election—forfeiting the people’s rights to govern altogether—and establishing a totalitarian regime seems less far-fetched than it did even a few years ago.

    The emergency state is now out in the open for all to see. Unfortunately, “we the people” refuse to see what’s before us. Most Americans, fearful and easily controlled, would sooner rouse themselves to fight for that last roll of toilet paper than they would their own freedoms.

    This is how freedom dies.

    We erect our own prison walls, and as our rights dwindle away, we forge our own chains of servitude to the police state.

    Be warned, however: once you surrender your freedoms to the government—no matter how compelling the reason might be for doing so—you can never get them back.

    As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, no government willingly relinquishes power.

    If we continue down this road, there can be no surprise about what awaits us at the end.

    The America metamorphosing before our eyes is almost unrecognizable from the country I grew up in, and that’s not just tragic—it’s downright terrifying.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 03/28/2020 – 00:05

  • Social-Distancing Getting You Down? Sex-Robot Firm Launches "Antibacterial" Dolls
    Social-Distancing Getting You Down? Sex-Robot Firm Launches "Antibacterial" Dolls

    Coronavirus is already transforming society as we know it. 

    Days ago, we noted how one strip club in Las Vegas opened up a drive-thru window for patrons to watch dancers, all because of strict social distancing measures implemented by the federal and state government. 

    As Americans are in mass quarantine and ordered to avoid social gatherings and other people, the good old days of logging into Tinder, Bumble, and or Grindr could be over for now – due mostly because, having sex with strangers could result in a contraction of the virus. 

    This is why the rise of the sex doll industry could be imminent as millions have been forced by the government to practice social distancing to flatten the curve. 

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    On Thursday, sex robot company RealDoll, also known as Abyss, assured people that its sex dolls are antibacterial and are safe for use during a pandemic, reported Daily Star

    “Self-isolating doesn’t have to be the worst!” the company’s Instagram account said. “All RealDolls are made from Platinum Grade Silicone and are naturally antibacterial and nonporous!”

     

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    RealDoll is preparing to unveil an entire line of futuristic AI-driven sex dolls onto the market this year. Last month it released a video of its AI-driven sex dolls conveying “human expression” and holding conversations. The dolls were heard saying: “We are AI-driven robotic dolls; We are here to become your perfect companion.” 

    The company’s launch of AI-driven sex dolls during a pandemic could be a hit with consumers, considering tens of millions of people are likely to change their sex life habits during this health crisis. 

    And while we assume these dolls are expensive, and if you cannot afford a robot sex doll of your own, there’s a sex doll brothel in Toronto that offers the “world’s most beautiful silicone ladies.” 


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 03/27/2020 – 23:45

  • 13 Reasons To Fear The Coming COVID World Order
    13 Reasons To Fear The Coming COVID World Order

    Authored by Andrew Korybko via One World Press,

    COVID-19 has fundamentally changed life as we know it, and it’s more than likely that our future will be a dystopian one given how various governments have already responded to this viral outbreak.

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    The skeptics among us are fearful that this whole pandemic is overblown and being exploited as a smokescreen for stealing our freedoms, and while their attitude towards this disease is questionable (and quite possibly dangerous), their suspicion about a government takeover of society is warranted.

    Never before have governments had so much power over the people, though in these emergency conditions, that might not be an entirely bad thing for the time being seeing as how it could very well be necessary for our survival.

    The problem, however, is that these newly assumed powers probably won’t be voluntarily surrendered after this epidemic ends, which is why many people are so concerned. They’re convinced that we’ve suddenly entered a period of global dictatorship, and it’s difficult to argue with them.

    So much else is also changing as well, and it’s hard to keep up with the “COVID World Order” that’s been thrust upon us, but what follows is an attempt to briefly describe everything that’s already taken place and predict what will probably follow:

    1. DE-FACTO MARTIAL LAW…

    There’s no other way to describe both the “recommended” and mandatory quarantines that many in the world are experiencing than to call them what they are, a state of de-facto martial law, which isn’t being formally declared in order to not provoke any more panic than there already is.

    2. …IS THE “NEW NORMAL”

    Now that de-facto martial law of a seemingly indefinite period has been accepted by the people (whether willingly or begrudgingly), it’ll probably become the “new normal” and be implemented countless times in the future, be it as an “overabundance of caution” in the event of another outbreak or under any other pretext.

    3. SOCIAL MEDIA CENSORSHIP WILL INTENSIFY

    “Big Brother” is already here, but he’s going to become a bigger bully than ever before by intensifying his censorship of people’s social media posts on the basis that they’re “socially irresponsible” (e.g. questioning the seriousness of this disease), after which the “politically incorrect” net will widen to encompass other topics too.

    4. TRAVEL WILL NEVER BE THE SAME AGAIN

    Domestic and international travel will never be the same again, with internal restrictions on movement likely becoming commonplace and most foreign guests being required to self-quarantine for a period of time except in special circumstances, thus all but killing the global tourism industry.

    5. BORDER CONTROL WILL BECOME MORE ROBUST

    Gone are the days of so-called “open borders” where anyone can freely move between jurisdictions at will (whether legally or otherwise), with more stringent controls being put into place to protect the local population from outsiders (including their own compatriots from elsewhere in the country).

    6. MANDATORY VACCINES ARE COMING

    For whatever one thinks about vaccines, there’s probably no way to stop them from becoming mandatory after the COVID-19 pandemic, with it being predicted that people will have to prove that they’ve been vaccinated in order to do anything at all such as study, work, travel, and receive government benefits.

    7. REMOTE LEARNING & WORKING WILL INCREASE

    With so many people stuck at home and unable to leave except to purchase essential goods in most cases, it’s predictable that remote learning and working (the latter which will of course be for those whose jobs allow them to do so) will pick up in the coming future as society gets used to this way of doing things.

    8. 5G IS INEVITABLE

    The massive surge of online traffic from folks who are learning, working, or simply entertaining themselves online will necessitate the rapid roll-out of 5G technology despite what some people suspect are its serious health concerns.

    9. SOCIETY DEPENDS ON JUST A FEW JOBS TO FUNCTION

    The “new normal” of de-facto martial law has made many people realize that society really just depends on a few jobs in order to continue functioning at the bare minimum, with these being techies, grocery store and pharmacy employees, bank clerks, healthcare professionals, food service workers, farmers, and truckers.

    10. NATIONALIZATION MIGHT BE IMMINENT

    For better or for worse, governments across the world might go on a nationalization spree in order to take control of what they regard as “essential industries” (though whether some of them truly are or not is another story), which could lead to the informal imposition of either socialist or fascist economic models.

    11. “UNIVERSAL BASIC INCOME”

    Given the scale and scope of the global economic collapse that was catalyzed by the world’s uncoordinated response to COVID-19, it’s foreseeable that governments will unveil what’s been described as a “universal basic income” in order to ensure that their people can continue to at least purchase basic goods and services.

    12. MANDATORY MEDICAL TRAINING IN EXCHANGE FOR GOVERNMENT BENEFITS

    Medical training is arguably more important than military service nowadays, so the state will probably make it mandatory in schools from here on out and for anyone who wants to receive government benefits, thereby enabling the government to draft them in the future whenever there’s a dearth of healthcare professionals.

    13. SAY GOODBYE TO CASH

    The cashless society is coming, whether justified by the (real, false, or exaggerated) fear that lethal viruses can be spread by paper currency or as the government’s preferred method of dispersing its “universal basic income”, meaning that the authorities can cut folks off from their funds at any time that they want to.

    *  *  *

    There’s no guarantee that everything that was described above will come to pass, but there’s certainly a high likelihood that at least some of it will transpire with time, though it’ll remain to be seen how sustainable these socio-economic and political changes are and whether or not they can ever be reversed.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 03/27/2020 – 23:25

  • Tokyo On Cusp Of Explosive COVID-19 Outbreak: Governor
    Tokyo On Cusp Of Explosive COVID-19 Outbreak: Governor

    Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike urged citizens to halt all non-essential outings as she warned that the city is at grave risk if it cannot prevent an explosive spread of COVID-19, according to NHK.

    Koike suggested that people stop visiting the iconic cherry blossoms until next year, as the current pace of roughly 40 new infections for three straight days has reaffirmed that the nation’s capital is on the brink of a surge in cases.

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    Meanwhile, residents are already beginning to panic, as empty store shelves have begun to make an appearance.

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    The Governor has called on residents to share a sense of crisis and act responsibly – noting that Tokyo will work with neighboring prefectures to halt the spread of the disease, according to NHK.

    The governor said “non-essential outings” refers to outings that can be delayed. They exclude hospital visits by people with chronic ailments and shopping at supermarkets or convenience stores to buy necessities.

    She asked residents to make their own decisions on whether they must go out.

    Many people gather at parks and other outdoor locations to enjoy cherry-blossom viewing around this time of year. –NHK

    Japan has largely avoided the impact of COVID-19 felt by other nations, with just under 1,400 cases and 47 deaths as of this writing.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 03/27/2020 – 23:05

  • This Pandemic Is Exposing The Futility Of The National Security State
    This Pandemic Is Exposing The Futility Of The National Security State

    Authored by Andrew Bacevich via TomDispatch.com,

    Americans are facing “A Spring Unlike Any Before.” So warned a front-page headline in the March 13th New York Times.

    That headline, however hyperbolic, was all too apt. The coming of spring has always promised relief from the discomforts of winter. Yet, far too often, it also brings its own calamities and afflictions.

    According to the poet T.S. Eliot, “April is the cruelest month.” Yet while April has certainly delivered its share of cataclysmsMarch and May haven’t lagged far behind. In fact, cruelty has seldom been a respecter of seasons. The infamous influenza epidemic of 1918, frequently cited as a possible analogue to our current crisis, began in the spring of that year, but lasted well into 1919.

    That said, something about the coronavirus pandemic does seem to set this particular spring apart. At one level, that something is the collective panic now sweeping virtually the entire country. President Trump’s grotesque ineptitude and tone-deafness have only fed that panic. And in their eagerness to hold Trump himself responsible for the pandemic, as if he were the bat that first transmitted the disease to a human being, his critics magnify further a growing sense of events spinning out of control.

    Yet to heap the blame for this crisis on Trump alone (though he certainly deserves plenty of blame) is to miss its deeper significance. Deferred for far too long, Judgment Day may at long last have arrived for the national security state.

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    ORIGINS OF A COLOSSUS

    That state within a state’s origins date from the early days of the Cold War. Its ostensible purpose has been to keep Americans safe and so, by extension, to guarantee our freedoms. From the 1950s through the 1980s, keeping us safe provided a seemingly adequate justification for maintaining a sprawling military establishment along with a panoply of “intelligence” agencies—the CIA, the DIA, the NRO, the NSA—all engaged in secret activities hidden from public view. From time to time, the scope, prerogatives, and actions of that conglomeration of agencies attracted brief critical attention—the Cuban Bay of Pigs fiasco in 1961, the Vietnam War of the 1960s and early 1970s, and the Iran-Contra affair during the presidency of Ronald Reagan being prime examples. Yet at no time did such failures come anywhere close to jeopardizing its existence.

    Indeed, even when the implosion of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War removed the original justification for its creation, the entire apparatus persisted. With the Soviet Empire gone, Russia in a state of disarray, and communism having lost its appeal as an alternative to democratic capitalism, the managers of the national security state wasted no time in identifying new threats and new missions.

    The new threats included autocrats like Panama’s Manuel Noriega and Iraq’s Saddam Hussein, once deemed valuable American assets, but now, their usefulness gone, classified as dangers to be eliminated. Prominent among the new missions was a sudden urge to repair broken places like the Balkans, Haiti, and Somalia, with American power deployed under the aegis of “humanitarian intervention” and pursuant to a “responsibility to protect.” In this way, in the first decade of the post-Cold War era, the national security state kept itself busy. While the results achieved, to put it politely, were mixed at best, the costs incurred appeared tolerable. In sum, the entire apparatus remained impervious to serious scrutiny.

    During that decade, however, both the organs of national security and the American public began taking increased notice of what was called “anti-American terrorism”—and not without reason. In 1993, Islamic fundamentalists detonated a bomb in a parking garage of New York’s World Trade Center. In 1996, terrorists obliterated an apartment building used to house US military personnel in Saudi Arabia. Two years later, the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania were blown up and, in 2000, suicide bombers nearly sank the USS Cole, a Navy destroyer making a port call in Aden at the tip of the Arabian peninsula. To each of these increasingly brazen attacks, all occurring during the administration of President Bill Clinton, the national security state responded ineffectually.

    Then, of course, came September 11, 2001. Orchestrated by Osama bin Laden and carried out by 19 suicidal al-Qaeda operatives, this act of mass murder inflicted incalculable harm on the United States. In its wake, it became common to say that “9/11 changed everything.”

    In fact, however, remarkably little changed. Despite its 17 intelligence agencies, the national security state failed utterly to anticipate and thwart that devastating attack on the nation’s political and financial capitals. Yet apart from minor adjustments—primarily expanding surveillance efforts at home and abroad—those outfits mostly kept doing what they had been doing, even as their leaders evaded accountability. After Pearl Harbor, at least, one admiral and one general were fired. After 9/11, no one lost his or her job. At the upper echelons of the national security state, the wagons were circled and a consensus quickly formed: No one had screwed up.

    Once President George W. Bush identified an “Axis of Evil” (Iraq, Iran, and North Korea), three nations that had had nothing whatsoever to do with the 9/11 attacks, as the primary target for his administration’s “Global War on Terrorism,” it became clear that no wholesale reevaluation of national security policy was going to occur. The Pentagon and the Intelligence Community, along with their sprawling support network of profit-minded contractors, could breathe easy. All of them would get ever more money. That went without saying. Meanwhile, the underlying premise of US policy since the immediate aftermath of World War II—that projecting hard power globally would keep Americans safe—remained sacrosanct.

    Viewed from this perspective, the sequence of events that followed was probably overdetermined. In late 2001, US forces invaded Afghanistan, overthrew the Taliban regime, and set out to install a political order more agreeable to Washington. In early 2003, with the mission in Afghanistan still anything but complete, US forces set out to do the same in Iraq. Both of those undertakings have dragged on, in one fashion or another, without coming remotely close to success. Today, the military undertaking launched in 2001 continues, even if it no longer has a name or an agreed-upon purpose.

    Nonetheless, at the upper echelons of the national security state, the consensus forged after 9/11 remains firmly in place: No one screws up. In Washington, the conviction that projecting hard power keeps Americans safe likewise remains sacrosanct.

    In the nearly two decades since 9/11, willingness to challenge this paradigm has rarely extended beyond non-conforming publications like TomDispatch. Until Donald Trump came along, rare was the ambitious politician of either political party who dared say aloud what Trump himself has repeatedly said—that, as he calls them, the “ridiculous endless wars” launched in response to 9/11 represent the height of folly.

    Astonishingly enough, within the political establishment that point has still not sunk in. So, in 2020, as in 2016, the likely Democratic nominee for president will be someone who vigorously supported the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Imagine, if you will, Democrats in 1880 nominating not a former union general (as they did) but a former confederate who, 20 years before, had advocated secession. Back then, some sins were unforgivable. Today, politicians of both parties practice self-absolution and get away with it.

    THE REAL THREAT

    Note, however, the parallel narrative that has unfolded alongside those post-9/11 wars. Taken seriously, that narrative exposes the utter irrelevance of the national security state as currently constituted. The coronavirus pandemic will doubtless prove to be a significant learning experience. Here is one lesson that Americans cannot afford to overlook.

    Presidents now routinely request and Congress routinely appropriates more than a trillion dollars annually to satisfy the national security state’s supposed needs. Even so, Americans today do not feel safe and, to a degree without precedent, they are being denied the exercise of basic everyday freedoms. Judged by this standard, the apparatus created to keep them safe and free has failed. In the face of a pandemic, nature’s version of an act of true terror, that failure, the consequences of which Americans will suffer through for months to come, should be seen as definitive.

    But wait, some will object: Don’t we find ourselves in uncharted waters? Is this really the moment to rush to judgment? In fact, judgment is long overdue.

    While the menace posed by the coronavirus may differ in scope, it does not differ substantively from the myriad other perils that Americans have endured since the national security state wandered off on its quixotic quest to pacify Afghanistan and Iraq and purge the planet of terrorists. Since 9/11, a partial roster of those perils would include: Hurricane Katrina (2005), Hurricane Sandy (2012), Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria (2017), and massive wildfires that have devastated vast stretches of the West Coast on virtually an annual basis. The cumulative cost of such events exceeds a half-trillion dollars. Together, they have taken the lives of several thousand more people than were lost in the 2001 attack on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.

    Earlier generations might have written all of these off as acts of God. Today, we know better. As with blaming Trump, blaming God won’t do. Human activities, ranging from the hubristic reengineering of rivers like the Mississippi to the effects of climate change stemming from the use of fossil fuels, have substantially exacerbated such “natural” catastrophes.

    And unlike faraway autocrats or terrorist organizations, such phenomena, from extreme-weather events to pandemics, directly and immediately threaten the safety and wellbeing of the American people. Don’t tell the Central Intelligence Agency or the Joint Chiefs of Staff but the principal threats to our collective wellbeing are right here where we live.

    Apart from modest belated efforts at mitigation, the existing national security state is about as pertinent to addressing such threats as President Trump’s cheery expectations that the coronavirus will simply evaporate once warmer weather appears. Terror has indeed arrived on our shores and it has nothing to do with al-Qaeda or ISIS or Iranian-backed militias. Americans are terrorized because it has now become apparent that our government, whether out of negligence or stupidity, has left them exposed to dangers that truly put life and liberty at risk. As it happens, all these years in which the national security state has been preoccupied with projecting hard power abroad have left us naked and vulnerable right here at home.

    Protecting Americans where they live ought to be the national security priority of our time. The existing national security state is incapable of fulfilling that imperative, while its leaders, fixated on waging distant wars, have yet to even accept that they have a responsibility to do so.

    Worst of all, even in this election year, no one on the national political scene appears to recognize the danger now fully at hand.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 03/27/2020 – 22:45

  • How Governments Are Deploying Big Data To Enforce COVID-19 Quarantines
    How Governments Are Deploying Big Data To Enforce COVID-19 Quarantines

    This week a technology startup called Unacast launched a new app called “Social Distancing Scoreboard,” which tracks the GPS location of smartphones and grades geographical regions, such as a town, county, and or even a state, on how well residents in those areas are abiding by the government-enforced social distancing rules. The app creates an index, ranked from A to F, for whether people are staying home or not.

    Comparing the nation’s mass movements between February 28 to March 23 – virus cases started to rise and local governments across the country began to implement “shelter in place” public health orders, which by mid-month, changes in the average mobility for Americans started to slope downwards. As of March 23, the app ranked the US with a “C,” detailing how many people in the US are ignoring calls by the federal and state governments to stay home amid community spreading. 

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    As of March 23, the top five states where citizens were practicing the best social distancing were District of Colombia, Nevada, New York, New Jersey, and Alaska. The bottom five states were Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming.

    On a state and county level, Maryland earned a “B” with much of its counties surrounding Washington, DC, and central counties receiving good marks on Monday as many stayed home. However, in Western Maryland, it was life as usual as many seemingly did not care about the virus crisis.

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    Unacast is just another example of how technology is being deployed as mass surveillance tools to combat the virus.

    Several other examples of companies and governments extracting data from citizens for surveillance purposes to support quarantines have been though monitoring social media posts and facial recognition databases.

    Ghost Data, a big data analysis firm, collected half a million Instagram posts in March, mainly from hard-hit virus regions in Italy that are in lockdown. The company was able to run facial recognition software on all images to identify people who were violating the country’s quarantine orders.

    Another technology company that has joined the effort to support big governments in their quest to enforce full lockdowns with high-tech tools is telecommunications firm Vodafone. The company is giving European governments heat maps of location data, to track mass gatherings.

    The World Health Organization has widely supported the actions by governments to tap technology companies to unleash mass surveillance programs to fight the virus. Monitoring the populace through invasive technology tools will erode whatever freedoms people of the West have left and risk ushering in a more permeant dystopian surveillance system like China’s. 


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 03/27/2020 – 22:25

  • All The Craziest Things About America Are Being Highlighted By This Virus
    All The Craziest Things About America Are Being Highlighted By This Virus

    Authored by Caitlin Johnstone via Medium.com,

    “Corona is a black light and America is a cum-stained hotel room,” comedian Megan Amram colorfully tweeted a couple of weeks ago. Her observation has only grown more accurate since.

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    The corporate cronyism of America’s political system has been highlighted with a massive kleptocratic multitrillion-dollar corporate bailout of which actual Americans are only receiving a tiny fraction. Instead of putting that money toward paying people a living wage to stay home during a global pandemic, the overwhelming majority of the money is going to corporations while actual human beings receive a paltry $1,200 (which they won’t even be getting until May at the earliest) at a time of record-smashing unemployment.

    America’s capitalism worship has been highlighted with Wall Street Journal headline “Dow Soars More Than 11% In Biggest One-Day Jump Since 1933” running at the exact same time as “Record Rise in Unemployment Claims Halts Historic Run of Job Growth — More than 3 million workers file for jobless benefits as coronavirus hits the economy”. Stocks are booming, Amazon is surging, and mountains of wealth are being transferred to sprawling megacorporations, while actual human beings are terrified of what the future holds.

    America’s joke of a healthcare system is being highlighted as uninsured COVID-19 patients are racking up $35,000 medical bills and even insured COVID-19 patients are looking at out-of-pocket expenses in excess of $1,300. Combine this with the millions of Americans getting thrown off of employer-provided health insurance and you’re looking at a huge number of people who will avoid getting tested and avoid treatment as much as possible. Both heads of America’s two-headed one-party system have spent decades forcefully creating this dynamic.

    America’s income and wealth inequality is being highlighted in a nation suffering from all of the above problems while most Americans were already unable to afford a mere $1,000 emergency expense. A one-time $1,200 payment to a population already stretched that thin guarantees that millions will be plunged into crushing debt and destitution in a nation with a historically unprecedented billionaire class raking in even more unearned wealth.

    The insanity of America’s war machine has been highlighted as awareness grows during a global health emergency that government military spending negatively impacts government healthcare spending and the US has the most bloated military budget on the planet. Now as journalist Max Blumenthal explains this war machine’s escalating hostility toward China is causing Americans to needlessly die of the virus.

    America’s fake political system has been highlighted as the Democratic Party’s presumptive nominee completely vanished for a week and then returned to deliver an embarrassing string of befuddled interviews upon his return, reminding the nation once again that the Democrats are running an actual, literal dementia patient for the most powerful elected office in the world. Biden will of course be running against an incoherent reality TV star who only last week decided that the virus is indeed a real problem which needs to be seriously addressed, and who now already wants to begin rolling back the inadequate measures his administration implemented far too late. The debates between two men who don’t understand what they’re doing and can’t string a sentence together between them will soon be broadcast around the world for all of civilization to behold.

    America’s lying mass media are being highlighted with propagandistic lines that would make Kim Jong Un blush, like The New York Times claiming today that “the American medical system is unsurpassed and its public health system has a reputation as one of the finest in the world”. We can safely expect US media to get even more demented as they expands their hysteria-inducing new cold war propaganda campaign against Russia to China as well.

    America’s murderous sanctions machine has been highlighted as the US continues ramping up its economic warfare against Iranian civilians, with thousands already dead and potentially millions to follow due to Tehran’s inability to access necessary equipment, medicine and resources during the pandemic. The Trump administration has not eased the sanctions during the outbreak, and has in fact added to them, because killing Iranian civilians has always been the goal. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has gone on record to say that the objective is to make Iranian civilians so miserable and desperate that they overthrow their own government.

    So basically everything crazy about America is being amplified to absurd caricatures of its own insanity and highlighted for everyone to see. There’s a lot of ugliness coming out into the light as a result of this virus, which may end up being one of its few perks for everyone. As they say of both viruses and governments, sunlight is the best disinfectant.

    *  *  *

    Thanks for reading! The best way to get around the internet censors and make sure you see the stuff I publish is to subscribe to the mailing list for my website, which will get you an email notification for everything I publish. My work is entirely reader-supported, so if you enjoyed this piece please consider sharing it around, liking me on Facebook, following my antics onTwitter, checking out my podcast on either YoutubesoundcloudApple podcasts or Spotify, following me on Steemit, throwing some money into my hat on Patreon or Paypal, purchasing some of my sweet merchandise, buying my books Rogue Nation: Psychonautical Adventures With Caitlin Johnstone and Woke: A Field Guide for Utopia Preppers. For more info on who I am, where I stand, and what I’m trying to do with this platform, click here. Everyone, racist platforms excluded, has my permission to republish, use or translate any part of this work (or anything else I’ve written) in any way they like free of charge.

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    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 03/27/2020 – 22:05

  • There Is Now A Treasury Shortage
    There Is Now A Treasury Shortage

    Earlier this morning we showed something remarkable in the Fed’s ongoing attempt to inject a record amount of liquidity into the financial system: on Friday morning, the Fed held a $500 billion term repo operation and nobody showed up. There were zero submissions of either Treasury, Agency of MBS securities by Dealers who appear to have run out of securities, or are unwilling to pledge to the Fed.

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    Today’s “zero bid” auction was merely the logical endgame of a recent collapse in Treasury submissions into the Fed’s massive daily term and overnight repo operations, which climaxed two weeks ago, only to plunge as soon as the Fed announced the start of unlimited QE.

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    With dealers now able to sell unlimited amounts directly to the Fed, and at a premium to carrying values, most of them appear to have picked that option instead of holding on to paper that may be worthless especially with an avalanche of debt coming down the pipeline as the Treasury has to fund its $2 trillion corporate handout package.

    “Why on Earth you would tie something up for three months in repo with the Fed buying,” said Ian Burdette, managing director at Academy Securities, who followed up with a very apt observation: “I think people are getting wise to the fact that an absolute tsunami of global sovereign debt issuance is on its way. Best to sell it all to the fed now probably.

    Another hint that the Fed may have overliquified the market, soaking up too much “safe, money-like collateral” such as Treasuries and MBS, and injecting too many reserves (i.e., cash) came from the Fed itself which 30 minutes before the close today announced it would taper “QE-unlimited” and cut the amount of TSY purchases starting April 1 from $75BN to $60BN, while also trimming its MBS QE from $50BN to $40BN.

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    But the clearest hint yet that there has been a sea change in the US financial system, which has gone from reserve scarce to collateral(Treasury) scarce was in today’s fixed-rate reverse repo operation. As the name suggests, this is the opposite of repo, where instead of borrowing cash from the Fed in exchange for Treasury collateral, while paying a modest borrowing fee, Dealers borrow Treasurys in exchange for cash collateral.

    If the presence of a reverse repo is news to some, there’s a reason for that: for much of the past 3 years, when the Fed was draining reserves as part of QT and banks were cash strained, there was an abundance of Treasurys.

    Until today, because today’s reverse repo operation exploded to a record $210BN from $138.4BN yesterday, after virtually no usages for years.

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    This means that after scrambling to park treasuries at the Fed in exchange for cash, Dealers are now doing the opposite, because as a result of the Fed’s historic QE spree in which the Fed has bought $1 trillion in TSYs and MBS in the past two weeks, there is now an unexpected Treasury shortage among the financial community. Either that, or simply nobody wants to park their Treasurys with the Fed if they can sell them.

    But don’t worry: if there is indeed a Treasury shortage, it won’t last. With the US Treasury on deck to issue hundreds of billions in debt in the coming weeks, a scarcity of US paper is the last thing the world will have to worry about…


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 03/27/2020 – 21:40

  • Whither COVID-19? When Will It End And What Will Happen Along The Way
    Whither COVID-19? When Will It End And What Will Happen Along The Way

    Authored by Phillip Giraldi via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    The coronavirus story has generated a number of major subplots…

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    First is the origin of the virus. Did it occur naturally or was it created in a Chinese, American or Israeli weapons lab? If bioengineered, did it somehow escape or was it deliberately released? As the governments that might have been involved in the process have become very tight lipped and the mainstream media is reluctant to embrace conspiracy theories, we the public may never know the answer.

    Second is the nature of the virus itself. There are inevitably skeptics who choose to compare the affliction to a common head cold or normal winter flu and are able to cherry pick so-called experts to support their case. Many Americans are unwilling to submit to a lockdown or isolation and are flaunting their willingness to go out in public and mix freely while others are claiming that the whole thing is a hoax designed to create a panic that will benefit certain constituencies. There are press reports of teenagers going to supermarkets and faking a sneeze or a cough in the produce section to show their indifference to the infection avoidance guidelines now being promoted by the media and government. Some critics have also commented regarding the deaths of hundreds of Italians daily, suggesting that in Italy’s health care system old people were deliberately being allowed to die.

    The fact is that when critically ill people die in hospitals it is sometimes attributable to triage. Triage arises when there are only limited resources to treat the sick, as in the case recently in the Italian Lombard city of Bergamo where hospitals were overwhelmed. Doctors must make the decision to treat those who are ill who are likely to survive as a first priority, meaning that others will only receive limited treatment. Italy has roughly the same number of hospital beds as does the United States per capita and it has more ventilators capable of being used to treat the advanced stages of the virus. It also is receiving assistance from both China and Russia on testing supplies and additional ventilators and masks. Italy has conducted far more coronavirus tests than has the U.S. The northern Italian medical services system was up to European standards, better than what prevails in the U.S., but it has been broken by the virus. Spain is heading the same way and there are similar concerns about France.

    In spite of all the ideologically driven background clutter, genuinely knowledgeable medical authorities come down overwhelmingly promoting the view that the virus is highly contagious and capable of spreading rapidly, making it a pandemic, and it can be exceptionally lethal to certain demographics, including the elderly and those with weakened immune systems. The way of combatting it also appears to be agreed upon by most genuine experts i.e. that testing must be widespread to determine who is infected and those individuals should be isolated from contact with others for at least two weeks to limit the spread of the contagion. For those whose conditions worsen, hospitalization and treatment for possible respiratory failure are warranted.

    The third big issue is the apparently deliberate failure of the Trump Administration to respond proactively to limit the spread of the virus. Seeking to protect the stock market more than the American public, President Donald Trump initially downplayed the impact of the virus, even calling it a “hoax” during January and February when it first appeared on U.S. soil. It turned out that several institutes affiliated to the Center for Disease Control to deal with epidemics had been dismantled by the Administration and, in spite of the warning provided by what was occurring in Wuhan, the U.S. made no effort to increase its supply of testing kits, masks or ventilators. Meanwhile, congressmen were receiving dire warnings of what was coming from the intelligence community in private briefings, leading to a number of senators selling their stock in anticipation of a market collapse. That is something called insider trading and it is illegal. It is also a measure of the corruption of America’s ruling class.

    The fourth major subplot relates to what will come out of the pandemic once it is over, if it is indeed defeated at all. Critics rightly observe that the government response both at federal and state levels might well be a major overreaction to a health crisis that could possibly be dealt with using a lighter hand. Donald Trump has now called himself a “wartime president,” a particularly odd conceit in that America’s chief executive officer dodged the Vietnam war draft.  Trump is now providing daily rambling briefings emphasizing that his administration deserves a “10 out or 10” for its yeoman’s work against coronavirus. The real story is that the president personally inhibited initial efforts to respond to the disease and he is now attempting to regain lost ground by supporting draconian measures to include cash payments to all American residents, even to people who do not need the money. The money itself will have to be borrowed or printed, putting the United States even deeper in debt.

    Based on his wartime status, the president and his cabinet are poised to exploit Civil War and Korean War legislation to assume powers over the economy and will likely arrange bailouts of some industries that will then acquire the government as a partner. The now declared “national emergency” will undoubtedly come to include some forms of martial law to enforce the isolation of targeted populations and it is also being reported that the Justice Department has asked Congress to allow judges to detain people indefinitely without trial during the “emergency.” As we have learned from the Patriot Act, Military Commissions Act and the Authorization to Use Military Force, allegedly temporary powers acquired by the executive branch have frequently become permanent. Unrestrained power in the hands of a Trump or Biden should frighten anyone who is still interested in voting in November.

    There is some speculation that Trump might well follow the example being set by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel. Israel has banned foreign visitors, is under 24 hours curfew and is effectively in lockdown. It is using cell phone intercepts provided by the intelligence services to track the comings and goings of Israeli residents. The monitoring is being justified as a mechanism to create a record of who is meeting whom and where to support isolation and lockdown efforts. A similar program is already active in the suburbs around Washington. The National Security Agency (NSA) already has the technical ability in place that would permit monitoring of the movements of much of the U.S. population. It would be an intelligence community dream and would fit quite nicely with Congress’s recent efforts to re-authorization certain Patriot Act aspects of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA).

    Fifth and finally, there is the politicization aspect of coronavirus. The virus is being “blamed” on China, a global competitor of the United States. As is often the case, Trump has gotten the ball rolling through his usual verbal toxicity, calling the virus the Chinese Virus or Wuhan Virus. Other Republicans have picked up on the theme, leading to the inevitably Democratic progressive wing complaints that such language was “racist.” The fact it, there is no evidence whatsoever that China in any deliberate way either created or unleashed the virus.

    And, of course, there is Russia. It would almost seem an old joke that is no longer amusing to blame something new and menacing on Moscow and congress has so far largely refrained from doing so. But that does not mean that the Deep State establishment is holding the Kremlin and President Vladimir Putin blameless. The U.S. intelligence community, through its preferred propaganda sheet the New York Times, is now reporting that Russia is taking advantage of the coronavirus crisis to spread disinformation through Europe and also in the U.S. In particular, Putin has escalated a campaign-by-innuendo to reduce confidence in the outcome of the upcoming 2020 presidential election. In any event, the Russians are too late as the Democratic and Republican parties’ behavior has already convinced many Americans that voting in November will be a waste of time.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 03/27/2020 – 21:25

  • Airbnb To Offer Free Or Subsidized Housing For 100,000 COVID-19 First Responders 
    Airbnb To Offer Free Or Subsidized Housing For 100,000 COVID-19 First Responders 

    As global confirmed virus cases breach the 500,000 mark, with about 23,000 deaths, Airbnb has released a new statement that it wants to “provide free or subsidized housing” for 100,000 “healthcare professionals, relief workers, and first responders” who are combating COVID-19

    “Medical workers and first responders are providing lifesaving support during the coronavirus outbreak and we want to help,” says Airbnb’s Co-founder Joe Gebbia. 

    “We’ve heard from countless hosts around the world who want to provide a comforting home to heroic first responders. We are connecting our nonprofit partners, government agencies and others with our incredible host community to work together in these extraordinary times.” 

    Airbnb is working with businesses, government and emergency management agencies and nonprofits such as the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, the statement read.

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    Airbnb hosts can opt into the program to help first responders by opening their homes for free using Airbnb’s Open Homes platform. If the hosts are not able to offer their homes for free, “Airbnb will still waive all fees on the stay.”

    The company said it has already piloted the program in Italy, with nearly 6,000 Airbnb hosts have already opened up their homes to first responders. 

    “I applaud Airbnb for working under conditions of such uncertainty to provide housing for first responders and medical staff working in this pandemic. We are working to provide clear communication and resources, based on rapidly evolving knowledge about this novel virus and best practices on sanitation, in order to help keep communities as safe as possible,” said Dr. Larry Brilliant.

    And maybe Airbnb’s subsided program to help first responders is really a ploy to bail out its “superhosts” that are up to their eyeballs in mortgages, now face financial ruin as guests booking their properties have gone to zero amid the virus outbreak. 

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    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 03/27/2020 – 21:05

  • Ed Snowden Warns: Surveillance Measures Will Outlast The Pandemic
    Ed Snowden Warns: Surveillance Measures Will Outlast The Pandemic

    Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

    Edward Snowden has a warning for those who are giving up liberty for a false sense of security: the temporary mass surveillance measures put in place will be anything but temporary. Snowden says that these measures are not worth giving up even more liberty.

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    Nothing is so permanent as a temporary government program, and infamous whistleblower Edward Snowden is sounding the alarms about the Orwellian mass surveillance that will long outlast this coronavirus pandemic.

    The former CIA contractor, whose leaks exposed the scale of spying programs in the United States, is warning that once this tech is taken out of the box, it will be hard to put it back.

    “When we see emergency measures passed, particularly today, they tend to be sticky,” Snowden said in an interview with the Copenhagen International Documentary Film Festival.

    The emergency tends to be expanded. Then the authorities become comfortable with some new power. They start to like it.

    Power corrupts. It always has and always will.  But people have become comfortable with government officials ruling over them, stealing their money, and telling them what to do.  We’ve been transformed into the government’s slaves, and Snowden says it’s only going to get worse.

    Security services will soon find new uses for the tech. And when the crisis passes, governments can impose new laws that make the emergency rules permanent and exploit them to crack down on dissent and political opposition.

    Take the proposals to monitor the outbreak by tracking mobile phone location data.

    This could prove a powerful method of tracing the spread of the virus and the movements of people who have it. But it will also be a tempting tool to track terrorists — or any other potential enemies of the states. -The Next Web

    This virus has so far been an excuse by the ruling class to institute permanent tyranny. As I’ve stated before, I’m far less afraid of this virus than I am of the government’s response to it. Snowden is as well.  He’s especially concerned about security services adding artificial intelligence to all the other surveillance tech they have. “They already know what you’re looking at on the internet,” he said. “They already know where your phone is moving. Now they know what your heart rate is, what your pulse is. What happens when they start to mix these and apply artificial intelligence to it?”

    There is no disputing the severity of this pandemic, however, surrendering basic human rights and dignity to the government is essentially giving up and allowing yourself to be enslaved for the remainder of your life.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 03/27/2020 – 20:45

  • Large-Scale "Internet Rationing" Possible, Experts Warn
    Large-Scale "Internet Rationing" Possible, Experts Warn

    Netflix app downloads have exploded across Europe over the last several weeks as “Netflix and chill” “Netflix and quarantine” has been all the rage during countrywide lockdowns in Italy, France, Spain, and the UK. 

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    We noted last Thursday that Netflix had to reduce traffic to its European networks by 25% for 30 days to preserve internet functionality as streaming traffic surged among tens of millions of people in quarantine.

    Days after Netflix pledged to reduce streaming traffic, experts are saying that European countries could start rolling out large-scale “internet rationing” to prioritize critical apps and websites. 

    “If we end up in a situation where worldwide, 850m children start to receive lessons virtually for an extended period of time, then networks might want to start prioritizing video traffic over gaming traffic,” said Matthew Howett, principal analyst at Assembly, who spoke with The Telegraph.

    British internet provider BT Group said their communication network could handle the extreme levels of data of millions surfing the internet while in quarantine. But they warned that video streaming services could start bogging down the system and leave critical networks, reserved for emergency services, exposed to slow speeds. 

    Besides Netflix, Amazon Prime Video and YouTube are other streaming services limiting ultra-high definition videos to European users to preserve the functionality of the internet. 

    The French and UK governments have reportedly asked Disney to suspend the launch of its new streaming service in both countries on March 24. 

    The risk of large-scale “internet rationings” by European governments could be on the horizon as more and more people across the continent are forced to shelter in their homes. This could lead to the throttling of internet speeds for citizens while internet traffic is preserved for European healthcare systems, education systems, and emergency systems. 

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    Kester Mann, an analyst at CCS Insight, said “drastic methods” could be nearing to throttle the internet if usage continues to increase exponentially:

    “If you’re talking about education over other services, that could get a little bit controversial,” Mann said.

    Andrew Ellis, a professor of optical communications at Aston University, called for mass throttling of the UK’s internet back in 2015 to avoid overloading networks. 

    Ellis said last week that the virus crisis has now spurred discussion that the UK’s internet infrastructure needs to be upgraded. 

    “If we carry on doubling what we do online every couple of years or so, eventually we’ll run out of energy or capacity and we’ll have to start making hard decisions,” he said. 

    Austria and Switzerland have already prioritized their internet traffic if networks become overloaded. 

    One reason why people aren’t rioting in the Western world and have accepted forced quarantines by governments is that they’re content with all the food they have just hoarded and can stream almost any movie on Netflix. Take the TV and food away, everyone would be in the streets.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 03/27/2020 – 20:25

  • Frightened Mobs In Peru Burn Hundreds Of Bats With Torches As COVID-19 Hysteria Grows
    Frightened Mobs In Peru Burn Hundreds Of Bats With Torches As COVID-19 Hysteria Grows

    Authored by Elias Marat via TheMindUnleashed.com,

    As the coronavirus outbreak continues to grow, misinformation in the form of fake news, rumors, and gossip have continued to feed mass hysteria and panic over the deadly disease.

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    In Peru, this has resulted in locals attempting to fight CoViD-19 by attacking communities of bats despite the fact that the novel virus still hasn’t been decisively proven to have originated from the winged creature.

    On Wednesday, the Peruvian government issued a statement warning residents to stop killing bats after authorities were forced to intervene when roughly half a thousand of the flying mammals came under attack by gangs of peasants hoping to exterminate what they believed were carriers of the disease, reports Peruvian network América Noticias.

    Roughly 300 of the creatures were killed in the arson attacks that took place in the small village of Culden, which lies in the Cajamarca region, after mobs attacked the caves where the bat communities dwelled, Peru’s National Service of Wild Forests and Fauna (SERFOR) announced.

    About 200 bats were saved from the torch-bearing gangs by members of the wildlife service and National Agrarian Health Service (SENASA) who later released the animals into a distant cave far from Culden.

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    AFP reports that in a statement, SERFOR said:

    “We must not distort the situation due to the pandemic. Bats are not our enemies.”

    Continuing, the wildlife agency explained that the bats are actually quite beneficial to humans and are even helping to combat deadly viruses including dengue. Dengue fever outbreaks in Southeast Asia and the Americas have continued unabated while the world’s attention has been fixed on containing the CoViD-19 pandemic.

    SERFOR said:

    “70 percent of the [bat] species in the world feed off insects, many of which are harmful to agriculture and our health, like mosquitoes that spread dengue and other diseases”.

    Jessica Galvez-Durand, head of wild fauna operations at SERFOR, also used the opportunity to remind Peruvians that they should abstain from eating wild animals or using their flesh for medicinal purposes.

    Exotic species are famously seen as delicacies in some Asian and Pacific Island nations due to the often unproven medicinal benefits of eating the wild creatures or because the consumption of exotic and even live animals is seen as a symbol of social status.

    However, the misconception that soup made from bat meat is some popular menu item throughout China—and that bat soup is “responsible” for the coronavirus outbreak originating in the Chinese city of Wuhan—has been thoroughly debunked as misinformation that spread through viral fake news stories and social media posts.

    Some scientists do believe that the virus may have originated in bat microbes but transformed into deadly human pathogens through an intermediary animal, such as pangolins, whose meat is sometimes used in traditional medicine.

    So far, there have been over 400 confirmed CoViD-19  infections and at least nine deaths from the novel virus in Peru.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 03/27/2020 – 20:05

  • "If Getting Us Into $6 Trillion More Debt Doesn’t Matter, Then Why Not $350 Trillion?"
    "If Getting Us Into $6 Trillion More Debt Doesn’t Matter, Then Why Not $350 Trillion?"

    Shortly after 4pm, president Trump signed into law the $2 trillion fiscal stimulus also known as the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES Act), which gives the Fed the ammunition to issue up to $4.5 trillion in additional debt, a “Multitrillion Dollar Helicopter Credit Drop” as Bloomberg called it, and officially launches not only helicopter money but the biggest wealth transfer in US history, as not only will the Fed balance sheet double on short notice but will unleash an unprecedented spending spree the likes of which not even Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez could have ever imagined would take place.

    One person tried to if not stop it, then at least delay and ask the critical questions that everyone else in Congress should have been asking: why are US citizens, who are supposed to be the sole beneficiaries of this emergency bailout act, just a footnote in the gargantuan bill’s deluge of electronic ones and zeroes. That person was Republican Rep. from Kentucky, Thomas Massie, who tried to force a recorded vote on the legislation, i.e., a roll coll, prompting a scramble by House members to come back to Washington to form the required quorum of at least 216 members.

    Of course, Massie failed, as the vote passed and was eventually signed into law. However, Massie did at least try to bring some much needed attention to what was contained in the bill, and pose some of the key questions that so many others should have asked.

    Below are some of his key points:

    This bill should have been voted on much sooner in both the Senate and House and it shouldn’t be stuffed full of Nancy Pelosi’s pork- including $25 million for the Kennedy Center, grants for the National Endowment for the Humanities and Arts, and millions more other measures that have no direct relation to the Coronavirus Pandemic. That $25 million, for example, should go directly to purchasing test kits. The number one priority of this bill should have been to expand testing availability and creation of tests so that every American, not just the wealthy and privileged, have access to testing. We have shut down the world’s economy without adequate data. Everyone, even those with no symptoms, needs immediate access to a test.

    Of course, to quote none other than Nancy, “we have to pass the bill to find out what’s in it”, and we are confident that in just a few months, everyone will find out precisely why the bill was so rushed: because out of the $2 trillion, only $290 billion is meant for direct payments to families, which as a reminder was the whole point of the bill.

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    Massie also pointed out that among the bill’s key provisions was the even greater entrenchment of Fed secrecy, a Fed  which in theory is there to serve the people yet which has successfully defended against an open audit for over a decade:

    This bill creates even more secrecy around a Federal Reserve that still refuses to be audited. It allows the Federal Reserve to make decisions about who gets what, how much money we’ll print. With no transparency.

    Massie was referring to the fact that the bill repeals the sunshine law for the Fed’s meetings until the end of the year, or until the President says the coronavirus threat is over, which may very well be never. That, as Wall Street on Parade notes, “could make any FOIA lawsuits to unleash details of what’s going on next to impossible since it has been codified in a federal law.” The bill states the following:

    SEC. 4009. TEMPORARY GOVERNMENT IN THE SUNSHINE ACT RELIEF. (a) IN GENERAL.—Except as provided in subsection 8 (b), notwithstanding any other provision of law, if the Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System determines, in writing, that unusual and exigent circumstances exist, the Board may conduct meetings without regard to the requirements of section 552b of title 5, United States Code, during the period beginning on the date of enactment of this Act and ending on the earlier of— (1) the date on which the national emergency concerning the novel coronavirus disease (COVID–19) outbreak declared by the President on March 13, 2020 under the National Emergencies Act (50 20 U.S.C. 1601 et seq.) terminates; or (2) December 31, 2020.

    This would also mean that US taxpayer will never learn why they went into debt to the tune of $454 billion, which would then be levered 10x by the Fed to issue up to $4.5 trillion in loans to companies the Fed deems appropriate, if no records are being maintained.

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    However, Massie’s final point that was the punchline:

    If getting us into $6 trillion more debt doesn’t matter, then why are we not getting $350 trillion more in debt so that we can give a check of $1 million to every person in the country?

    Here the Kentucky Representative hit the bullseye, as this is precisely the endgame. However, since one can’t unleash the full $350 trillion overnight without classical economists admitting the truth about what the real nature of this bailout is, it will be done piecemeal with other crises, and other “unprecedented” emergencies emerging in the near future and unlocking the path to what is the real goal of this unprecedented reflationary bailout of the world’s most indebted nation. It also indirectly addresses Massie’s final point:

    This stimulus should go straight to the people rather than being funneled through banks and corporations like this bill is doing.  2 trillion divided by 150 million workers is about $13,333.00 per person. That’s much more than the $1,200 per person check authorized by this bill.

    Indeed, the math is simple, and the stimulus isn’t going directly to the people for one simple reason: that’s not its purpose. Instead, its purpose is to not only provide trillions in corporate welfare, but to greenlight self-reinforcing helicopter money whereby the Treasury will now have to issue trillions and trillions in debt and the Fed will have to monetize it or else interest rates will explode.

    Of course, this arrangement may prompt other questions, like for example “why pay taxes if the Treasury can just print whatever debt it needs, and the Fed can just buy it“, something we have said for over a decade, but we will leave that particular train of thought to another enterprising politician to address… and be ridiculed.

    And speaking of ridicule, how do we know that Massie struck a raw nerve? Because shortly after his protest he was mocked not only by the republican president but also by some of the most prominent democrat.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    And in case anyone still hasn’t figured it out, the whole “republican, democrat” split of the population in two rival camps is nothing more than theater meant to distract while those in control loot not only the here and now, but also rob the future generations blind. Because the sad truth is that behind the fake veneer of either progressive ideals of conservative values, politicians on both sides have one simple directive: to perpetuate the broken status quo for as long as humanly possible, and get as rich as possible in the process.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 03/27/2020 – 19:45

  • Going Down With The Ship: After Raging At Moody's For Downgrade To Deep Junk, Masa Son Pledges 40% Of SoftBank Stake To Lenders
    Going Down With The Ship: After Raging At Moody's For Downgrade To Deep Junk, Masa Son Pledges 40% Of SoftBank Stake To Lenders

    Last October, in the aftermath of the WeWork and Uber fiasco, we asked if SoftBank, that chronic seed (and not so seed) investor in cash-incinerating zerocorns startups would be “The Bubble Era’s “Short Of The Century.” Subsequent events have only made our query more pressing: with the global economy frozen, with social distancing and self-quarantine now a mandatory part of life, the “sharing economy” that is the basis of so many of SoftBank’s investments has ground to a halt, making its already unsustainable cash burn explode to obscene levels.

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    Not helping matters is that one month ago, activist investor icon Paul Singer officially engaged SoftBank, demanding a higher stock price and forcing Son to announce on Monday plans to liquidate a whopping $41 billion in viable assets ( including $14 billion of shares in Chinese e-commerce leader Alibaba) in a bid to raise SoftBank’s price by announcing another massive stock buyback, something the company did first last February when it said it would repurchase 10.3% of its stock (apparently Masa Son has learned absolutely nothing from Boeing’s PR fiasco involving tens of billions in stock buybacks over the past decade, only to come crawling for a bailout in recent weeks not surprisingly finding a hostile rececption).

    The good news: news of the massive buyback helped SoftBank stock surge 55% which last week fell to a four-year low as investors panicked over its hefty debt exposure.

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    The bad news: unfortunately for SoftBank and Masa Son, the rating agencies noticed the company’s latest attempt to boost its stock price now at the expense of jeopardizing the company’s long term viability (see Boeing), and on Wednesday Moody’s issued a two-notch downgrade of SoftBank that cut its debt deeper into junk status.

    Moody’s cited SoftBank’s “aggressive financial policy” for its decision to cut its rating from Ba1 to Ba3, saying the value of the group’s portfolio would be reduced if it sold off its lucrative stakes in Chinese ecommerce group Alibaba and Sprint during the market volatility caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

    “Asset sales will be challenging in the current financial market downturn, with valuations falling and a flight to safety,” said Motoki Yanase, Moody’s senior credit officer, in a statement.

    Needless to say, Masa Son was furious that someone dared to point out that Japan’s hail mary M&A, rollup and venture capital emperor was, in fact, naked, and slammed Moody’s demanding that the rating agency remove all of its bond ratings on the Japanese conglomerate.

    “[SoftBank Group] believes that Moody’s ratings action is based on excessively pessimistic assumptions regarding the market environment and misunderstanding that SBG will quickly liquidate assets without any thorough consideration.”

    But the damage was already done, and the downgrade led to a sharp increase in the borrowing costs on SoftBank’ massive, $55bn debt load. Yields on SoftBank’s perpetual bonds, which have no maturity date, climbed above 11% after a sell off in Wednesday morning trading.

    And just like that all the investor goodwill Masa Son hoped to buy with the record upcoming buyback has fizzled, just because – this time – the rating agencies refused to keep their mouth shut and called out the company on its desperate attempt to boost its stock price while stripping it of some of its most valuable assets (not surprisingly, the rating agency corruption in Japan continues, and while SoftBank’s debt relative to cash flow mean that western rating agencies class SoftBank as junk, the group has an investment-grade rating from the local Japanese rating agency, JCR. It is unclear how much in kickbacks it costs Masa Son to keep this sole investment grade rating).  

    But wait, there’s more.

    With the noose tightening and as more questions about the viability of SoftBank emerge, on Friday Masa Son pledged an additional 10.1 million of his own SoftBank shares to lenders in the past two weeks, regulatory filings revealed.

    The latest filing means Son has now committed a total of 227 million SoftBank shares as collateral, worth about $8 billion, or about 40% of his 27% stake in the publicly traded financial conglomerate.

    Call it going down with the ship.

    According to Bloomberg, the newly pledged shares were worth about $360 million at Friday’s close. Son’s net worth is $12 billion on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, which excludes the value of the pledged shares. It has fallen $3.6 billion so far this year, as Masa has increasingly tied his own fate with that of SoftBank: the Japanese billionaire has more than tripled the level of his pledging since 2013.

    And if Masa is going down with the ship, so are his personal bankers, which according to Bloomberg include UBS and Nomura.

    So what happens next?

    Well, if the selloff continues, margin calls are next.

    As Bloomberg notes, Son’s filing comes as some billionaires scramble to meet margin calls on their pledged shares. India’s Gautam Adani and his family put up an additional $1.4 billion of shares as collateral on existing debt this month, and banks like ultra high net worth caterers UBS (there it is again) and Credit Suisse have asked clients to post additional collateral, which leads to further forced selling, and perpetuates the liquidation spiral.

    The worst case scenario however is not that Masa Son will be broke: we are confident he has billions stashed in an offshore bank somewhere. No, who will be hardest hit is – as usual – retail investors. Going back to SoftBank’s fabricated, and potentially criminal Investment Grade rating with JCR, the FT writes that SoftBank had repeatedly taken advantage of this higher domestic credit rating to raise debt from retail investors. Last year, the group became the biggest issuer of debt sold to “Mrs Watanabe”, i.e., Japan’s army of kamikaze retail investors, accounting for more than half of all outstanding retail bonds from companies and financial institutions in March last year.

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    Which means that when the bubble era “short of the century” finally collapses under the weight of its massive debt, it will once again be main street that is hardest hit. Because some things never change.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 03/27/2020 – 19:45

  • Why The World's Doing A Double-Take On China's No-New-Infections Claim
    Why The World's Doing A Double-Take On China's No-New-Infections Claim

    Authored by Richard Bernstein via RealClearInvestigations,

    China’s announcement this month of nearly a week of no new infections in Wuhan, the hard-hit city where the coronavirus pandemic originated, was both hope-inspiring — and hard to believe.

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    Medical professionals said the draconian set of policies imposed by the Chinese government – including widespread testing, isolation of all infected people and anyone they came in contact with – are proven methods for limiting contagion. Other countries, South Korea and Taiwan, for example, have followed similar courses, and they have also reported steep declines in new infections, though neither says it has achieved no new local infections, as China claims.

    A Taiwan network reported that one hospital was under pressure from the central government not to admit patients so it could report no new cases.

    “What we don’t know is the degree to which they’re being transparent and the degree to which they’re following up on existing infections,” Don Goldmann, a professor of immunology, infectious diseases, and epidemiology at the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, said in a phone interview. 

    Dr. Goldmann said Chinese scientists have been extremely transparent about what they’ve discovered about the coronavirus so far; they have shared information on the genetics and sequencing of the virus and details of autopsies, clinical care and outcomes, he said. They’ve also shared fatality rates among different age groups. 

    “So I’m not sure why they would make this up,” he said, “especially since risking another wave of this would not be in their interests or in the interests of their leadership.” 

    Still, skepticism about China’s no-new-local-infections claim is widespread, including, at least according to the anecdotal evidence, inside China. The doubt is fueled both by China’s Communist Party’s long history of propaganda and by the obvious benefits of changing the focus from the government’s initial efforts to suppress information about the coronavirus to its supposedly glorious victory over the disease crippling much of the world. 

    “A propaganda spokesman’s job is the turn messy facts into a clean narrative,” Andrew J. Nathan, professor of political science at Columbia University and a leading China expert, said in an email.

    “China is trying to bury the embarrassment of the Covid-19 cover-up in a happy story of triumph over the virus. 

    “But it feels like overreaching to say that transmission has completely stopped,” Nathan continued.

    “It seems that the message is political, not epidemiological.” 

    Some reports have chipped away at least at China’s most extreme claim of success. On the very days when the national health authority was announcing that there were no new local infections, social media accounts in China were circulating photographs of “urgent notices” put up in residential areas announcing new cases and warning people to stay home. 

    EBC News, a Taiwan cable news network, broadcast two such photographs dated March 20, which is two days after China reported there were no new local Wuhan infections. One of the notices, after announcing the new cases, read: “Do not go out, or gather, wash your hands, be careful, hold on, hold on, and hold on some more.” 

    EBC also broadcast video of a hospital in Wuhan that it says was taken on March 19 and provided by a local Wuhan journalist. The video shows a reception area crowded with people, some of them on gurneys with IV drips, and health care workers in full protective gear, white suits, face masks and goggles. 

    According to the Taiwan commentators, the reporter had accompanied a friend who was seeking care for his sick mother, but the hospital, while allowing patients to stay in the waiting area, was refusing to admit any of them. When the reporter asked the reason, a health worker at the hospital told him the hospital was under pressure from the central government to report no new cases.

    There’s no question that since Beijing began implementing strict quarantine measures to fight the virus, the Chinese propaganda machine has been in full gear, praising the Communist Party and its paramount leader, Xi Jinping, for directing an effective response to the epidemic and presenting itself as a model for the rest of the world. The overall message is that, as always, when things get tough, the Communist Party and its leaders, and only they, can be counted on for national salvation.

    “From the flood rescue effort in 1998 to the SARS epidemic in 2003 and the earthquake relief work in 2008,” the People’s Daily, the party’s official organ, said early in March, as China began reporting a drop in new coronavirus infections, “these great struggles one after the other have taught us that the Chinese Communist Party is the backbone of the Chinese people and the Chinese nation.” 

    In recent days, the Chinese media have gone beyond praise of the country’s leaders to depicting a world grateful to China for its leadership in the fight against the disease. It has also been expressing fury at President Trump for calling the disease the “Chinese virus” and it has lent credence to the unfounded conspiracy theory that the virus actually originated not in a market in Wuhan, but in an American military germ warfare lab. 

    “China selflessly extends helping hand to countries around the world in global battle against Covid-19,” read one recent headline in the English-language People’s Daily Online. The article showed pictures of a group of Chinese health care workers at a hospital in Italy giving the thumbs up. Another recent headline: “Foreign Politicians Thank China for Support Amid Epidemic.” 

    The barrage of good news propaganda has, moreover, been accompanied by what the human rights group Reporters Without Borders is calling China’s relentless crackdown on all independent news outlets that might mar the official narrative. This repression originated early in January when Li Wenliang, the doctor who first reported the existence of the virus, was taken into custody by the local Public Security Bureau and only released when he signed a confession admitting to “spreading false rumors.”

    Dr. Li soon died of the very disease whose existence was being denied by China’s authorities, and his martyrdom forced the authorities to admit that they had behaved incorrectly in his case.

    But the effort at information control has continued nonetheless. At least three citizen journalists who put out videos and reports on the dismal, crowded conditions in Wuhan’s hospitals have disappeared. Among them was Fang Bin, a businessman in Wuhan who was able to video-record his own arrest by Chinese police, posing as medical workers at his apartment. Fang was released for a time, but he soon put out a video in which he clearly anticipated his ability to act as an independent source of information in Wuhan wouldn’t last long.

    “I’m afraid,” he said.

    “Before me there’s the virus. And behind me, the legal and administrative apparatus of the Chinese state.”

    There have been other apparent arrests, or at least unexplained disappearances, including that of Ren Zhiqiang, a wealthy property developer who circulated an article in which he criticized Xi for his handling of the crisis. Earlier this month, according to Reporters Without Borders, an issue of the magazine Ren Wu was pulled from the newsstands after publishing an interview with a prominent Wuhan doctor criticizing the government for censoring doctors.

    Now, with China’s recent expulsion of reporters from The New York Times, Washington Post and Wall Street Journal, the country’s effort to gain total control of the coronavirus narrative would seem to be almost complete.

    China “is in the midst of its most intensive propaganda operation in living memory, in trying to project its success in dealing with the virus,” Peter Tsang, the director of the China Institute at the London University School of Oriental and African Studies, told Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post.

    “There is now an imperative for the statistics to be low, and now we have statistics that serve the political imperative.”

    So, what is the true picture? That is not an easy question to answer, but the available evidence would seem to support the conclusion that, while the no-new-infections claim may be more propaganda than literal result, China has, as Dr. Goldmann said, almost certainly succeeded in substantially slowing down the spread of the virus.

    Still, several things are missing from the official narrative that might be useful to other countries seeking to reduce the virus’s spread. These include whether the actions taken to track down infected people and force them into total quarantine could be duplicated in democratic countries. Taiwan’s EBC television network a couple of weeks ago broadcast video of a street brawl between local residents and police, the residents evidently furious they were unable even to obtain food and shouting, “We’ve been abandoned.” No images of that sort are likely to be shown on Chinese Central TV.

    And then there’s the risk mentioned by Dr. Goldmann that a new flare up of the virus would harm the credibility of the authorities. But one commentator on Taiwan television speculated that, if there is a new surge of infections, the propaganda machine will put the blame on the United States and Europe, saying the new infections were the result of their failure to follow the Chinese example.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 03/27/2020 – 19:25

  • Baltimore Population Plunges To Lowest In Over A Century As Homicides Soar
    Baltimore Population Plunges To Lowest In Over A Century As Homicides Soar

    Baltimore City’s population dipped below the 600,000 level, not see in more than a century, as record homicides, an opioid crisis, and now an economic depression risks sending the city deeper into chaos.

    The Baltimore Sun, citing new US Census data released on Thursday, estimates that the population in the city was 593,490 as of July 2019.

    To give you some perspective on the collapsing population trend in Baltimore. In 1950, the city had 950,000 residents. Now it has 593,490, which is a loss of 356,510 people, or about 37.5% of the entire population in seven decades.

    We’ve mentioned on several occasions how deindustrialization, “white flight” of the 1960/70s, the crack epidemic of the 1980/90s, and now the murder and opioid crisis has created another mass exodus, with many people fleeing for Baltimore County and other surrounding counties.

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    Michael Rendall, director of the Maryland Population Research Center and a sociology professor at the University of Maryland, College Park, said after the 2015 Baltimore Riots, no other counties surrounding the city saw a fall in population.

    The city’s plunging population, Rendall said, “is not a phenomenon reflective of the overall metropolitan area.”

    Over the previous year, Baltimore City lost 8,953 people, or 1.5% of its population.

    Back in 2014, when Democratic Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake was in office, the city had more than 623,000 residents. Which means the city has lost nearly 5% of its population in five years.

    Since the riots, Baltimore’s economic revival was halted, homicides surged, and opioids flooded low-income neighborhoods. Many people have packed their bags and exited the city, reflected in recent population trends. 

    With a depression expected to hit the US economy in the second quarter, the fear is that Baltimore could dive deeper into chaos. Most of the jobs in the city are service-based, completely wiped out by the virus-related shutdowns. Economic downturns have been known to stoke violence, drug use, and could risk another uprising in the city by angry folks who have not just lost their jobs but have been living in a hellhole for the last several decades.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 03/27/2020 – 19:05

  • Marvel Introduces Superheros "Snowflake" & "Safespace"
    Marvel Introduces Superheros "Snowflake" & "Safespace"

    Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

    Are you ready for this week’s absurdity? Here’s our Friday roll-up of the most ridiculous stories from around the world that are threats to your liberty, your finances, and your prosperity… and on occasion, poetic justice.

    *  *  *

    Alcohol to go: Why wasn’t this always a thing?

    You realize how absurdly micromanaged the economy is when the government starts lifting pointless restrictions.

    For example, New York and Washington DC will now allow people to order takeout and to-go alcoholic beverages from bars and restaurants.

    But these governments still can’t totally let go of control. The new rules in DC require restaurants and bars to obtain special permission from the government to sell drinks to-go.

    And even then, in both DC and New York, customers can only order drinks if they also buy food.

    See New York’s rules here, and Washington DC’s here.

    *  *  *

    Marvel introduces superheros “Snowflake” and “Safespace”

    We had to check to make sure this one wasn’t fake news. It’s real.

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    Marvel, the group behind Captain America, Ironman, etc., has now introduced two new superheroes: Snowflake, and their brother Safespace.

    (Snowflake is non-binary and uses pronouns they/them/their.)

    Snowflake creates icy throwing stars, while Safespace has more defensive powers. Both use “violence to combat bullying,” according to the author.

    They must also be antifa members if they respond to words and dissenting opinions with violence.

    Click here for the full story.

    *  *  *

    DOJ wants the power to detain Americans indefinitely during crises

    We see two forces at work during a crisis.

    On the one hand, the government is eliminating unnecessary laws and burdensome regulations.

    This is to make the response easier, and to placate people who are dealing with restrictions on their freedom to run a business or carry on with normal life.

    On the other hand, you have the government grab at more “temporary” powers… that never seem to expire.

    Using the Covid-19 epidemic as a convenient excuse, the Department of Justice has asked Congress for the power to “pause” court proceedings “whenever the district court is fully or partially closed by virtue of any natural disaster, civil disobedience, or other emergency situation.”

    It might sound reasonable enough. Until you realize that anyone can be arrested and detained indefinitely without trial or without even a preliminary hearing in front of a judge.

    The draft language of the draft bill applies this suspension to “any statutes or rules of procedure otherwise affecting pre-arrest, post-arrest, pre-trial, trial, and post-trial procedures.”

    Pre-arrest? Does that mean cops don’t even need a warrant from a judge anymore for arrests and homes raids?

    As long as the emergency persists, all rights of the accused go out the window.

    And the way things are looking right now, an “emergency situation” could last a long long time.

    Sort of like the special war powers the government took almost twenty years ago… for a war that is still ongoing.

    Click here for the full story.

    *  *  *

    Brazil’s president insists his people “never catch anything”

    It seems these days that people everywhere think that their president or prime minister is the biggest buffoon in the world.

    And to be fair there is no shortage of political leaders who routinely say the dumbest things imaginable.

    But Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro may really win the award. In a press conference just yesterday, he told reporters that he was unconcerned about the Corona Virus and that Brazilians “never catch anything.”

    When challenged, he doubled down on that assertion, stating that there’s some antibodies within Brazilians that should be studied, because his people simply do not get sick.

    77 Brazilians are already dead as of Thursday, with nearly 3,000 confirmed cases.

    Click here for the full story.

    *  *  *

    And to continue learning how to ensure you thrive no matter what happens next in the world, I encourage you to download our free Perfect Plan B Guide.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 03/27/2020 – 18:45

  • Global Pandemic Response Handing Governments Sweeping Powers They May Never Relinquish
    Global Pandemic Response Handing Governments Sweeping Powers They May Never Relinquish

    While the response to the coronavirus pandemic have ranged from mocking the disease (such has Brazil’s Bolsonaro) to physically sealing people inside of apartment buildings in China, governments are deploying an array of legislative and technical measures to track and control citizens during the outbreak which has killed over 21,000 in roughly three months.

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    As the situation deteriorates, many fear that the current efforts to control the virus will have dire consequences for individual freedoms long after the danger of COVID-19 has passed, according to Bloomberg‘s Ian Marlow – who notes “In desperate times like these, leaders on all levels are going to extraordinary lengths to do whatever possible to contain the virus.”

    Like the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the U.S., the coronavirus pandemic is a crisis of such magnitude that it threatens to change the world in which we live, with ramifications for how leaders govern. Governments are locking down cities with the help of the army, mapping population flows via smartphones and jailing or sequestering quarantine breakers using banks of CCTV and facial recognition cameras backed by artificial intelligence.

    The restrictions are unprecedented in peacetime and made possible only by rapid advances in technology. And while citizens across the globe may be willing to sacrifice civil liberties temporarily, history shows that emergency powers can be hard to relinquish. –Bloomberg

    “A primary concern is that if the public gives governments new surveillance powers to contain Covid-19, then governments will keep these powers after the public health crisis ends,” says Adam Schwartz, a senior staff attorney for the Electronic Frontier Foundation based in San Francisco. “Nearly two decades after the 9/11 attacks, the U.S. government still uses many of the surveillance technologies it developed in the immediate wake.

    In China, authorities have leveraged their extensive monitoring network to trace people exposed to COVID’s epicenter in Hubei, and encouraged citizens to monitor their neighbors’ health and movements. And perhaps this has worked – as the country has lifted standing travel restrictions as the rest of the world goes into lockdown (reported resurgence aside).

    “China was able to control the outbreak because government was tracking people closely,” said Shanghai worker Joy Huang. “I don’t want to get tracked, but meanwhile, I don’t want infected people not getting tracked. Freedom has a price.”

    Outside of China, governments are enacting strict measures to combat the pandemic.

    In Hungary, a bill has been introduced to allow Prime Minister Viktor Orban to rule by decree indefinitely. It includes up to five years in prison for anyone trying to “distort facts” which might weaken the government’s “defense measures.”

    In Russia, police are using Moscow’s extensive CCTV network to arrest people violating quarantine after returning from high-risk countries – deploying one of the world’s most advanced facial-recognition systems to monitor over 13,000 people required to self-isolate.

    In France, President Emmanuel Macron established a committee to address the pandemic which includes a potential “mobile identification strategy” to track anyone who has come into contact with infected people. Paris, meanwhile, has been using drones to enforce quarantines.

    Singapore recently launched a voluntary phone app which uses Bluetooth technology to map close contacts in case an infected person can’t remember all of their social interactions.

    Israel has granted the police the ability to monitor those suspected to be in isolation, while the internal security service, the Shin Bet, can track and infected person’s mobile phone data going back two weeks.

    India just enacted an unprecedented three-week lockdown across the entire country, while officials are tracking mobile phones, cross-referencing reservation data from airlines and railways, and stamping the hands of those with suspected infections.

    “Given the caseload, a 21-day nationwide lockdown, implemented at such short notice and likely without thinking through all the consequences, seems incomprehensible,” said former World Bank economic development expert, Salman Anees Soz – a member of India’s opposition Congress Party who compared the move to the prime minister’s controversial 2016 cash ban. “It is either that the government knows the disease has spread far beyond the official numbers or the government wants to be seen as doing something decisively. Either way, it reminds me of demonetization. In fact, this is going to be far bigger and poses extreme risks to India’s poor and vulnerable.”

    The list goes on and on.

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    According to the ACLU’s Jennifer Granick, the US doesn’t have the ability to enact a China-style quarantine, because people’s trackable information is ‘disaggregated and mostly in the hands of private companies, not the government.”

    “We’re going to have to accept, as with any law in our society, a little bit of noncompliance,” she said.

    Some see the need for greater control.

    Australia’s government has received criticism from some health experts for not using enough surveillance and tracking measures to halt the spread of the virus. In Japan, where the outbreak seems to have been less severe than in many other countries, parliament passed a bill that would allow Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to declare an emergency, but he hasn’t yet done so.

    Europe has its own sensibilities, with more importance placed on data protection. In Germany, a draft coronavirus law with provisions enabling tracking by smartphone of infected patients without any time limit was amended after the justice minister expressed her opposition. Israel’s state security measures have been opposed at the country’s supreme court. –Bloomberg

    According to Nanjing University philosophy professor Gu Su, governments worldwide “should be allowed to concentrate and expand their power, to some extent, to handle the crisis more efficiently,” as long as it is “strictly limited.”

    The problem is that governments have issues with limits, and will push boundaries until enough pitchforks come out. Then, everyone forgets – while big brother has a new suite of toys to track, control and oppress at will.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 03/27/2020 – 18:25

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 27th March 2020

  • COVID-19 Reaction Boosts Key British Politicians' Popularity
    COVID-19 Reaction Boosts Key British Politicians’ Popularity

    The UK government’s response to the coronavirus outbreak in the country has so far been well received by the public. At least, that is what survey figures from YouGov suggest. As Statista’s Martin Armstrong points out, when comparing the favorability of politicians key to the pandemic response, a clear positive trend can be observed.

    Infographic: Coronavirus reaction boosts key UK politicians' popularity | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    At the beginning of March, the prime minister for example had a negative net favourability rating of minus seven. Fast forward to the beginning of this week – and the introduction of a far-reaching lockdown – and this has jumped to plus 20.

    The most dramatic of turns has been seen by Rishi Sunak. A relative political unknown upon his appointment as chancellor in February, Sunak has gone from a minus seven rating to a plus 49, thanks presumably to the financial support he has provided to individuals and businesses to counteract some of the negative economic effects of the coronavirus.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 03/27/2020 – 02:45

  • Former UK Prime Minister Calls For Global Government To Fight COVID-19
    Former UK Prime Minister Calls For Global Government To Fight COVID-19

    Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

    Former Prime Minister of the UK Gordon Brown has called on world leaders to create “a temporary form of global government” to fight the coronavirus outbreak.

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    Brown wants international organizations like the WHO and the UN to be given executive powers that would supersede national sovereignty as part of a new system overseen by world leaders and health experts.

    “This is not something that can be dealt with in one country,” he said.

    “There has to be a coordinated global response.”

    An international task force would “make sure the efforts of central banks were coordinated,” help find a vaccine and prevent profiteering according to Brown, who wants more money and power given to the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

    “We need some sort of working executive,” Brown said.

    “If I were doing it again, I would make the G20 a broader organisation because in the current circumstances you need to listen to the countries that are most affected, the countries that are making a difference and countries where there is the potential for a massive number of people to be affected – such as those in Africa.”

    As we have exhaustively documented, it was globalism that helped spread the pandemic in the first place.

    Even as the virus was raging through China, the World Health Organization repeatedly insisted that countries should not impose any border controls.

    When many western countries finally did close their borders weeks later it was too little too late.

    *  *  *

    My voice is being silenced by free speech-hating Silicon Valley behemoths who want me disappeared forever. It is CRUCIAL that you support me. Please sign up for the free newsletter here. Donate to me on SubscribeStar here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 03/27/2020 – 02:00

  • US Warship Transits Taiwan Strait As Virus Blame-Game Escalates
    US Warship Transits Taiwan Strait As Virus Blame-Game Escalates

    The Wall Street Journal’s Jacky Wong pretty much sums it up: “World War 3 during a pandemic wasn’t something I expected.” 

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    A US warship transited through the Taiwan Strait on Wednesday, angering Beijing as both countries are fighting wars of their own against COVID-19 and escalating the blame-game for exactly who is ultimately responsible for the spread of the deadly virus.

    The US Pacific Fleet tweeted that the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer, USS McCampbell (DDG 85), conducted operations through the Taiwan Strait on Wednesday. 

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    Taiwan’s armed forces said in a statement that the US warship sailed through the region on an “ordinary mission,” indicating that there was no need for alarm, reported Reuters

    The transit comes at a time when President Trump has repeatedly called COVID-19, the “Chinese virus,” as social distancing and mass quarantines have led to the collapse of not just China’s economy but a depression that will likely unfold in the US in the second quarter. 

    Anthony Junco, a spokesman for the US Seventh Fleet, said the USS McCampbell conducted “a routine Taiwan Strait transit on March 25 (local time) in accordance with international law.” 

    “The ship’s transit through the Taiwan Strait demonstrates the US commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific. The US Navy will continue to fly, sail and operate anywhere international law allows,” Junco said.

    The cross-Strait relations between China and Taiwan could be heating up again. China slammed the US on Thursday for its latest stunt in the region. 

    Ren Guoqiang, the spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of National Defense, said the “US’s recent actions concerning Taiwan, such as dispatching warships across the Taiwan Strait and passing of the TAIPEI Act, were tantamount to interference in China’s internal affairs and undermined cross-strait peace and stability.”

    “The Chinese armed forces have firm will, full confidence and sufficient capability to thwart any form of separatist acts and will take all necessary measures to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Guoqiang said.

    We noted back in November that if China’s economy were to crash for any reason, then the threat of war between China and Taiwan would increase.  

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    So what happens next? China’s economy crashed, the world is swamped in a pandemic, Trump is increasingly calling COVID-19, the “Chinese flu,” is the next move military conflict? 


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 03/27/2020 – 01:00

  • 230 Years Of Rights And Liberties Shredded: Why I Oppose The Lockdown
    230 Years Of Rights And Liberties Shredded: Why I Oppose The Lockdown

    Authored by Brandon Tourbeville via ActivistPost.com,

    Although it was nearly twenty years ago, I can remember 9/11 like it was yesterday. I remember the shock of hearing about the planes crashing into towers, at first believing it was a tragic accident and quickly learning it to be otherwise. I remember being told that 19 hijackers, part of a fundamentalist plot to destroy America, were behind the attacks and that the mastermind was a man in a cave in Afghanistan named Osama bin Laden.

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    As all of America was glued to their television screens, many rushed out to give blood in an effort to at least do something to help one another. George W. Bush’s answer for Americans was to go to work and then go out and shop. Americans dutifully complied. But the government’s answer, in tandem with mainstream media, was also to be afraid. Very afraid. Americans also complied with this request, perhaps more than any other.

    In the days and weeks after the initial shock, a college professor informed me about a bill called the PATRIOT ACT that would essentially eviscerate much of the Constitution and Bill of Rights. After class, I questioned him further about the bill, which he explained, and suggested that if I really wanted to understand what was happening, I should read 1984 by George Orwell. I went home and did just that and was surprised to learn that not only was he right, but that I was watching what I was reading happen in front of me in real life.

    I watched as the fear of speaking your mind and saying certain words became known as freedom. I watched as Americans came to assume that their communications were listened to, frightened of what they said, but justifying it as they praised their country for being unlike the totalitarian governments of the past. Peace became war. Any suggestion that invading Afghanistan was wrong was unpatriotic. In fact, any criticism of the government was considered unpatriotic and anyone who valued freedom over temporary security was borderline a traitor.

    I watched as the United States became The Homeland and I watched as my friends had their window busted out of their car because they did not have one of those ridiculous window flags.

    Still, shortly after the event itself, I began speaking out against the erosion of our Constitution and the Bill of Rights. I questioned the official story of 9/11 and fought against the passage of the PATRIOT ACT. In those days, anyone who did either of these things was considered either woefully ignorant and naive or a traitor who was giving moral support to the enemy.

    I spoke out after 9/11 and was largely alone with a few notable exceptions. I was forced to watch the majority of my fellow Americans give away the most precious thing they had, the things which no other country could lay claim to, and the thing that they claimed they were supporting war to protect. America gave away a huge chunk of its rights in the wake of 9/11 and, though they were promised the measures were only temporary, twenty years on we have never received them back.

    Instead, police officers are now often indistinguishable from military soldiers, the United States is still in Afghanistan as well as Iraq, Libya, Syria, Somalia, Ukraine, and a host of theatres across the world where its undefinable “interests” apparently lie. It is now a foregone conclusion that cellphone, internet, and all other communications are monitored. It is well understood that the iron fist of the state can come down with lack of due process and the Second Amendment is under daily attack. Torture is now general practice for foreign and domestic arrestees.

    Now, here we are close to twenty years later. Americans once again have a shadowy nemesis for which our government has once again failed to provide adequate information. Once again, the governmental response is not a robust rethinking of how we got to be where we are, (in this case how medical care is provided, who has access to it, or the overarching philosophy behind it), but a massive police state, quasi martial law, and the evisceration of what is left of the liberties and rights they didn’t give away twenty years ago or give away gradually in the time between.

    This time, it is not so much the President leading the charge to burn the Constitution, but Governors all across the country, acting in concert with one another. But they aren’t acting alone. Because of the massive propaganda mouthpiece of the mainstream media blasting hysteria and panic as well as the desired conclusions they intend for their audiences to reach, many Americans are demanding that their rights be taken away and that they and their fellow citizens be forced off the streets and into their homes at gunpoint.

    My opposition to the potential Lockdown is twofold but principally it is based on the fact that over two hundred and thirty years of rights and liberties should not be shredded on the basis of any threat, real or imagined. Americans either have rights or we don’t. There is no asterisk in the Constitution that states the Bill of Rights is null and void in the event of a terrorist attack or a virus outbreak. If we do not maintain our rights in a time of crisis, then, simply put, we do not truly have rights at all.

    If we do not maintain these rights, our country, such as it is, ceases to exist.

    As Peter Hitchens, one of the few critics of this Lockdown mentality (happening all over the world and, in his case, Britain) wrote in his recent article for the Mail Online,

    All the crudest weapons of despotism, the curfew, the presumption of guilt and the power of arbitrary arrest, are taking shape in the midst of what used to be a free country. And we, who like to boast of how calm we are in a crisis, seem to despise our ancient hard-bought freedom and actually want to rush into the warm, firm arms of Big Brother.

    Hitchens’ article is well worth reading, not only for his views but for his critique of the scale of the pandemic, which is highly questionable.

    Secondly, we are quickly driving this country to a second Great Depression where unemployment is at levels never before seen and where only the 1% and the major banks have anything resembling wealth. This Depression will be so devastating that it will make the first look weak in comparison, not just because of employment but because of the real human toll after decades of globalism, Free Trade, and urbanization have gutted this country of its workforce, manufacturing, healthcare, education, production capabilities, and general living standards. With more Americans living urban lives and fewer and fewer farms by the day, the Second Great Depression will kill many more people than the virus and leave those left alive scrounging for crumbs at the bottom. Already, since the beginning of this virus emergency, we have witnessed a huge transfer of wealth from the lower classes to the higher and we will no doubt witness more as this insane Lockdown attempt continues.

    After the Lockdown passes, Americans will complain about low wages and lack of work. They will wait in lines for benefits that may or may not exist and that will be lower than their current living standards require. Unlike the loss of their rights, the benefits will be temporary. But Americans won’t be able to fully blame Wall Street this time around since it was the media and the people who listen to it who were howling in the streets for Lockdowns and shutdowns. They will have gotten what they wanted as well as the opportunity to live to regret it.

    So here I am, twenty years after a writing career began as a result of generally good people who were frightened into giving away their rights, writing about exactly the same thing yet again. Of course, there may be time to reverse the direction in which we are heading. The next few weeks will most likely determine that matter. One thing is for certain, however, if Americans give up their rights now, they will never get them back.

    I don’t have any illusions about the effect this article will have on the direction we are heading as a nation. Instead, I expect it to bring about more criticism, more insults, and more claims that I am no longer “credible” as the propaganda repeaters seen on the major cable networks are credible. But it will be worth it, for no other reason than to register my voice so that, for the record, there was at least a few people who retained their sanity through this worldwide era of panic and did not willingly sacrifice his rights on the altar of fear.

    If we are able to step back from the abyss, perhaps the “credibility” and respect that I lose from peers as a result of this article will someday be returned. But if we are not able to step back, I can’t imagine anyone will be able to remember anything I’ve said here and, if that is the case, it probably wouldn’t matter if they did.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 03/27/2020 – 00:05

  • "Help Flatten The Curve" – Pornhub Offers Free Premium Service To Everyone
    “Help Flatten The Curve” – Pornhub Offers Free Premium Service To Everyone

    Pornhub is offering free premium accounts to anyone in the world, a statement from the company read.

    The new campaign is called “Help Flatten the Curve,” a move that it says could “encourage people around the world to stay home to help flatten the Coronavirus curve by self-isolating with FREE Premium!”

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    Having first tried this in Italy, Pornhub vice president Corey Price stated: “With nearly one billion people in lockdown across the world, it’s important that we lend a hand (LOL) and provide them with an enjoyable way to pass the time,” adding that he believed it would prove “an extra incentive to stay home and flatten the curve.”

    Price said a non-premium user of the site could click the box titled “I agree to self-isolate and enjoy Premium Videos for Free.”

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    In response to the pandemic, Pornhub has been actively donating medical supplies to local governments across the US and in Europe. Here are some of their efforts:

    · 15,000 surgical masks to protect first responders from the Local 2507 of New York City, which represents emergency medical technicians (EMTs), paramedics and fire inspectors of the Fire Department of the City of New York (FDNY).

    · 15,000 surgical masks to the Uniformed Firefighters Association (UFA) Local 94 of New York City to protect first responders.

    · 20,000 surgical masks to Mount Sinai South Nassau to bolster the safety of nurses, physicians and support staff caring for Coronavirus patients.

    · €50,000 to various European organizations to purchase additional masks and medical equipment, including Dein Quarantäne Engel / Deutsches Rotes Kreuz in Germany, Croce Verde di Vicenza in Italy, España vs Coronavirus. Mascarillas AQUÍ AHORA and Material Sanitario para Hospitales Públicos ESPAÑA in Spain.

    · $25,000 to Sex Workers Outreach Project (SWOP), contributing directly to sex worker relief funds in the SWOP-USA network to meet immediate requests for support from sex workers impacted by COVID-19.

    Free premium Pornhub will only be offered for the next 30 days, though at the current rate of infections in the US, the premium service could be extended.

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    Here’s how Twitter reacted to free Pornhub Premium:

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    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 03/26/2020 – 23:45

  • Earn More Or Spend Less? It’s Never Been A Better Time To Look At Your Money Situation
    Earn More Or Spend Less? It’s Never Been A Better Time To Look At Your Money Situation

    Submitted by Market Crumbs ,

    The sudden outbreak of the coronavirus and its effects on the economy, which has ground to a halt, are being felt by just about everyone. Whether you’re an investor who has seen your portfolio take a hit or someone without any investments who has lost a job, the current situation is very difficult for many. 

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    While you can’t go back a month and change your investments to be better positioned or do anything differently to prevent the job you may have lost, you can always find ways to save money or pick up a side hustle to make a few extra bucks. 

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    David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs. Source: CNBC

    In uncertain times like these, where the idea of job losses and investment losses is higher than normal, it’s important to make sure you have a “rainy day” fund to be prepared for the worst. While it’s difficult for many to just get by, let alone save, we’ll go through some ways you can begin saving a few extra bucks and even earn some extra cash. 

    Saving—it’s one of the most difficult parts about being an adult. Surveys have shown about 75% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck. Even those at the top of the income distribution live paycheck to paycheck. About one in four families earning more than $150,000 live paycheck to paycheck, while one in three earning between $50,000 and $100,000 do so.

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    While it’s important to save, it’s also important to enjoy yourself and do things. Making small changes to your spending habits can add up. Eliminating small, consistent charges for things such as a coffee at Starbucks everyday or $10 worth of lottery tickets each week adds up. Try packing lunch for work or having a few drinks at home with friends before going out to the bar.  Reddit’s Personal Finance community has great 30-day challenges to follow along.

    While they won’t approve of doing so, try getting together with a few friends and have each commit to paying for a subscription service and share logins. Rather than paying for Netflix, Hulu, Disney+ and Spotify, pay for one and find three friends to each pay for one. 

    If you’re traveling, look for cheaper options such as an Airbnb instead of a hotel or using ride-sharing services instead of renting a car. As bad as it is, fly Spirit and stuff your belongings in a backpack rather than opt for a more comfortable flight with a pricier airline. 

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    Plenty of credit card companies offer rewards, cash back and discounts on certain purchases. Taking advantage of these perks can help you consistently save a few bucks and even get a cash deposit or statement credit at the end of each billing cycle. 

    If you work for a large corporation, take advantage of employee discounts. Most employers offer discounts on things such as car leases, phone bills and local services, such as home services, dry-cleaning and restaurants. 

    On the other hand, the rise of the internet has enabled countless opportunities to make a quick buck on the side or even turn multiple gig jobs into full-time work. Gig jobs such as driving for a ride-sharing company, walking dogs on Wag, or doing freelance work on Fiverr or Upwork have proven to be extremely lucrative.  

    It’s often said the average millionaire has seven streams of income. Furthermore, some of the wealthiest people are often said to be some of the most frugal with their money. Warren Buffett, despite being one of the wealthiest people in the world, lives in the same house he bought for $31,500 in 1958. 

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    Warren Buffet’s House

    While the uncertainty about the economy continues to mount, it’s never too late to make small changes to your spending habits or pick up a gig on the side to make a few extra bucks. By doing so, you can have peace of mind knowing you have funds for when things go south.  


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 03/26/2020 – 23:25

  • Here Is The Treasury's (Not So) Secret Trade Printing Millions In Guaranteed, Risk-Free Profits Every Day
    Here Is The Treasury’s (Not So) Secret Trade Printing Millions In Guaranteed, Risk-Free Profits Every Day

    When the Senate unanimously passed a $2 trillion economic rescue plan late last night, it was targeting tens of millions of middle-class American households many of whom had lost their jobs, and whose lives had ground to a halt due to the global coronavirus pandemic and lockdown. It certainly wasn’t targeting Wall Street bankers.

    Naturally, the Congressional stimulus plan which is set for House passage tomorrow, received much publicity – after all, some of those trillions in stimulus payments will end up going into the pockets of America’s workers, and while the final amount is a modest $1,200 per month, both Democrats and Republicans – and the President of course – will take full credit for the handout (while blaming each other for the far bigger corporate bailouts that are at the core of the package).

    What has received far less coverage is that to fund this plan, the Treasury will have to issue trillions and trillions in new debt, much of which will be quickly monetized by the Fed (whose balance sheet is now $5.5 trillion and exploding), in what is essentially the arrival of helicopter money in the United States. As a result of the ongoing panic among capital markets participants who are scrambling to respond to this tsunami of new debt, there has been a surge in demand for cash and cash-equivalent products, including gold – which as we discussed earlier this week can not be found at virtually any merchant at a price remotely close to spot – and short-term Treasury Bills, those maturing in 3 months or less.

    In fact, so intense is the scramble for near-term Bills that they are all now trading with a negative yield all the way to the 3 month mark, and in some cases, further out.

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    It is this unexpected drop in hundreds of billions in US Treasury Bills into the monetary twilight zone of negative interest rates that represents a far more secretive if far more generous handout amounting to millions in virtually guaranteed handouts to Wall Street’s bond traders.

    But wait, the US doesn’t have negative yields, at least not yet, so why are Bills trading below zero. There are several answers, but the key one is traders’ preference to park cash not in their bank – which suddenly may have the dreaded “counterparty risk” thanks to some $40 billion in borrowings on the Fed’s Discount Window…

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    … and a bizarre surge in Libor that is hinting at one or more banks suffering from a liquidity crunch…

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    … but in the safety of debt instruments backstopped by Uncle Sam. After all, if the US were to default, which judging by the recent surge in US CDS is something quite a few are considering….

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    … investors would have far bigger problems than withdrawing their money.

    And it is here that a fantastically profitable arbitrage has emerged, one which is far more generous to Wall Street bond traders than the fiscal bailout is to the middle class, as it is literally handing out billions in risk-free money to pretty much anyone who figures it out.

    You see, unlike Germany, Switzerland or Japan, the US Treasury is prohibited from issuing debt with negative yields. Why? There is no one specific reason, but as Bloomberg, which first noticed this arb, points out “one reason the government might not want to allow negative-rate bidding is that it risks signaling to investors that negative rates are here to stay. Of course, since it is only a matter of time now before the Fed follows the ECB, BOJ and SNB by sinking into NIRP, this arb may soon disappear, but for now read on.

    Effectively what the arb boils down to is taking advantage of the maximum price, or rather minimum yield limit of Bills sold to the public (but mostly to Wall Street traders) and the unlimited yields these Bills can trade in the open market.

    Take the following example picked by Boomberg: on Thursday, the Treasury sold $60 billion of four-week bills at the minimum allowed rate of 0% (at a price of par, or 100 cent on the dollar).

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    But because the current yield on this security is roughly -0.14%, dealers can turn around and sell those bills at a premium to par, and pocket an immediate windfall of about $7 million. While that might not sound like much, with over $2.5 trillion of bills outstanding, and rolling every single month, it could add up very quickly, amounting to over $100 million every month in risk-free handouts directly from Uncle Sam if the yield on the short-end remains negative!

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    Another example: in addition to the four-week bill auction above, Treasury sold $50 billion of eight-week bills on Thursday at an auction rate of 0%. But in the open market, eight-week bills now trade at -0.1%, yielding a price that is above par, or over 100 cents on the dollar. (A quick BBG refresher: T-bills don’t actually pay a coupon, but are instead sold at a discount to par, which reflects the effective interest rate on the security. At 0%, the price would be 100 cents on the dollar. If the Treasury allowed negative-rate bidding, the securities would be sold at a premium.)

    As Bloomberg notes, the presence of this risk-free trade “has the potential to cost U.S. taxpayers billions of dollars if rates stay lower for longer, particularly as the U.S. is poised to issue more debt after the Senate passed a $2 trillion rescue package this week.”

    The Treasury absolutely, categorically, right now has to be thinking about this,” UBS economist and a former Treasury official and adviser to the Fed, Seth Carpenter, told Bloomberg, as this trade is “essentially just transferring wealth to other people. The Treasury is in a bind and they have to make a decision on this with bill rates being negative as they are.

    Curiously, it turns out that the systems to eliminate this unprecedented arb are already in place. In 2015, when bills also traded at persistently negative levels amid supply cuts to keep the U.S. under its statutory debt limit, Treasury adjusted its systems to allow it to handle a negative auction rate, according to former Treasury officials familiar with the matter. However, according to Bloomberg, it never followed through and changed its policy.

    One can only imagine why “nothing changed” in this dark corner of the Treasury market that allows bond traders to literally print free, guaranteed and perfectly legal money with the full blessing of the US Treasury. It is also hardly a surprise why virtually nobody would talk about this trade: after all if you have a golden goose, why bring attention to it?

    And yet now that everyone knows about this trade, there may be little the Treasury can do to stop savvy traders from collecting millions every single day, absent permitting negative-rate bidding to eliminate the primary-secondary market arb.

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    As noted above, the Fed may not want to give the impression negative rates are here to stay and that negative Bill yields are just an abberation (that “explanation” may have worked before, but now that helicopter money is here, it no longer will). Then there are political considerations: while the Fed has made clear it doesn’t see negative rates as a viable policy tool, President Trump, has been pushed Powell to follow the ECB and cut its benchmark rate to below zero.

    “It’s a political hot potato,” said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies and a former senior economist at the Richmond Fed. And “philosophically, I am just opposed to investors paying the U.S. government to hold their debt. Especially since small investors tend to be especially involved in the Treasury bill market.” 

    We agree Ward, but unless you can tell us where we can buy physical gold in size and at spot, Bills it is especially once a depository institution fails and the bank runs begin: at that moment, negative yields will go well into coupon territory. 

    Incidentally, Bloomberg points out that this is not the first time the issue of negative-rate auctions has come up. In August 2012, in a statement presented at its quarterly debt-refunding operation, the Treasury’s then-assistant secretary for financial markets said the government was “in the process of building the operational capabilities to allow for negative-rate bidding in Treasury bill auctions, should we make the determination to allow such bidding in the future.”

    Mysteriously, those capabilities never came online. Maybe because the “then assistant secretary” planned to work at a bank that is now making tens of millions from precisely this trade?

    Yet even with bill demand as high as it’s been, competing priorities could keep the Treasury from pulling the trigger, at least for now.

    “Selling bills at negative yields would benefit the taxpayers, but would put the Treasury at odds with the Fed, which hasn’t sanctioned negative rates,” said Mary Miller, the Treasury’s former undersecretary for domestic finance in the Obama administration, who is now running for mayor of Baltimore. The current situation “may just be a temporary disruption, so it’s worth watching to see if this rights itself with the big economic rescue steps.”

    “Temporary” maybe. But what happens when, not if, the crisis returns and investors have no choice but to park trillions into the “safety” of the Bill market sending yields far below zero and on a rather “permanent” basis. Which brings up another question: just how much undisclosed taxpayer subsidies do the banks get courtesy of Uncle Sam every single day, and what happens when the current crisis fully spills over into the banking sector?

     


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 03/26/2020 – 23:05

  • COVID-19: How A Coronavirus Broke The System
    COVID-19: How A Coronavirus Broke The System

    Authored by Marc Saxer via ConsortiumNews,com,

    The corona-crisis sends shockwaves through political, economic and social systems. The status quo simply cannot continue…

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    No one knows how long the pandemic will last, how many people will fall ill, how many lives the coronavirus will claim. But the economic and political consequences of the outbreak are already emerging. Measures to contain the pandemic are disrupting public life around the world.

    Starting with China, production has come to a standstill in one country after another. Global supply chains are broken. You don’t need a lot of imagination to see a wave of bankruptcies approaching in many industries where every last cent counts.

    In the past few days, panic buying has dominated media coverage. However, anxious consumers tend to postpone larger purchases. When shortages appear, consumption also drops. These upheavals are likely to cause the already sluggish European economies to slide into recession.

    The sudden slump in Chinese demand has shaken the commodity markets. After the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) could not agree with Russia to cut production in order to stabilise prices, Saudi Arabia changed its strategy and flooded the markets with cheap oil. As a result, the oil price plummeted to historic lows. In the short term, this might provide a measure of relief to industry and consumers. However, oil price wars, fears of recession and calamities on the bond markets are causing the stock markets to crash. Only a far-reaching intervention by all major central banks has so far staved off a financial crunch.

    The Economic Response

    Some countries, Germany in particular, have quickly launched extensive packages of measures to cushion the impending economic crisis. After some initial wavering, the United States is also planning a comprehensive economic stimulus, including the unprecedented dispersal of helicopter money. Whether these and other potential immediate measures are sufficient to stop the economic downturn depends on how deeply the crisis eats through the system. After past epidemics, a brief, sharp slump, the economy was usually followed by a quick return to growth. Whether this will also be the case with the corona crisis depends on many factors, not least how long the pandemic lasts.

    However, of greater concern are the shock waves that are now running through the ailing financial systems, where they are accelerating worrying longer-term trends. Many American industries and households are over-indebted. In China, shadow banks, real-estate enterprises and state-owned companies, along with the provinces, are all straining under the debt burden. The European banks have not yet recovered from the previous financial crisis. The economic collapse in Italy could cause the euro crisis to flare up all over again. The way in which investors are fleeing for the safety of government bonds indicates the deep fear that these houses of cards will collapse. The corona crisis could set in motion a chain reaction that would end in a global financial crisis.

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    A Republic of Korea Army Soldier assists a U.S. Army soldier in donning personal protective equipment before sanitizing a COVID-19 infected area during a joint disinfecting operation in Daegu, South Korea, March 13, 2020. (U.S. Army, Hayden Hallman)

    Unlike the 2008 crisis, however, this time the central banks are not in a position to save the day. To date, interest rates have been at historic lows in all major economies. The US Federal Reserve has therefore started to provide liquidity directly to the markets through repo transactions. The new head of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, initially stumbled on the European crisis response, thereby provoking speculation against the cohesion of the the euro group. By means of a coordinated intervention, however, all major central banks have now shown their determination to take a stand against the panic in the markets. The crucial question, however, is whether the Corona crisis can be overcome with monetary policy instruments at all. That very much depends on the nature of the crisis.

    Democracies Now Have to Deliver

    This is because the crisis is by no means limited to the economic sphere. The ability of states to protect the life and limb of their own citizens, is also being put to the test – and the stakes are nothing less than the fundamental legitimacy of the Leviathan.

    In the authoritarian regimes of Eurasia, the main issue is the legitimacy of the strongmen, whose claim to power is based on the central promise “I protect you.”. Chinese President Xi Jinping has understood this and, accordingly, is taking drastic measures against the spread of the virus regardless of the costs. However, his counterparts in Thailand, the Philippines and Brazil have treated control of the disease lightly and are now being lashed out at by their own supporters. The question of whether, in the eyes of his voters, President Donald Trump lives up to his central promise to protect America from external threats is likely to have a decisive impact on the outcome of the American elections.

    An international pandemic cries out for a coordinated global response. So far, however, each nation has pursued a solo effort.

    While the corona crisis may be disenchanting populists in government, it could be just what their counterparts in opposition have been waiting for. In the eyes of many citizens, the democratic states already lost control in the crises of 2008 and 2015. Decades of austerity policies and of health care systems cut back to the absolute minimum have hollowed out state structures; many people worry whether their nations will still be able to cope with major crises. In many countries, the public mood is turning against the free movement of money, goods and people.

    Many Italians have long feared to be among the losers of globalisation and the euro. Now come the emergency measures, the economic shock and yet another refugee crisis. The Lombard right-wing populist Matteo Salvini is not the only one who knows how to use the ingredients of “open borders, dangerous foreigners, corrupt elites, and defenseless states” to mix a toxic brew. Make no mistake, the liberal democracies of Western Europe are under scrutiny. In the midst of a right-wing populist revolt, democrats must now prove that they can and will protect the lives of all citizens.

    But how far can individual liberties be restricted? How long should the state of emergency last? Would Western societies tolerate drastic measures like those in China? Should they, like the East Asians, give priority to the collective over the individual? How can the rate at which the disease is spreading be slowed down if citizens do not adhere to the recommendations on “social distancing?” And what does solidarity with others mean when the only thing we can do is to isolate ourselves?

    Each Nation on Its Own

    An international pandemic cries out for a coordinated global response. So far, however, each nation has pursued a solo effort. Even within Europe there is a lack of solidarity. As in the euro crisis and the refugee crisis, Italy in particular feels that its partners have let it down. China cleverly took advantage of the lack of European solidarity and sent a plane to Italy, its Belt and Road partner country, loaded with medical supplies. In the meantime, Berlin has recognized the geopolitical dimension of the dual crises – coronavirus and refugees – and is concerned about the attempts by external powers to divide Europe. The export ban on medical protective equipment was eased again and Italy was assured of emergency aid in the form of one million face masks. More importantly, the European Stability Pact was suspended to give Italy enough fscal breathing room to save its economy.

    The crisis is another stress test for the already heavily burdened transatlantic partnership. Trump’s decision to isolate the United States from its European allies without consulting them has sent a clear signal. The American attempt to take over CureVac, a company based in Tübingen, to secure the vaccine exclusively for the United States, even escalated into a heated dispute with Berlin. Any joint, coordinated crisis response is hardly conceivable under these conditions. In the West, the byword so far has been ‘Every man for himself.’

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    Curevac in Tübingen. (Dktue, CC0, Wikimedia Commons)

    At the global level, the new conflicts between major powers are fuelling the crisis even more. The oil price war in particular is driven by geo-economic motives. The conflict between Saudi Arabia and Russia raises questions about the survival of the OPEC cartel. The big loser in the historic drop in prices could ultimately be the heavily indebted American shale oil industry. So if cheaper prices at the petrol pumps are really a blessing, as the US President promised, depends on who can endure this war of attrition the longest. In any case, Russia and Saudi Arabia have a key interest in knocking out their debt-financed American competitor.

    Whatever the outcome of the oil price war, the balance of power in the oil markets will be readjusted. The debate about “peak oil,” which has been raging for decades, should also experience an interesting turn. In the end, it might not be a dwindling supply of fossil fuels that will seal the decline of the oil industry. With permanently low prices, it might simply be no longer economically viable to exploit the remanining reserves. Could a geo-economic conflict unintentionally herald the end of the fossil age?

    The crisis is also fueling the U.S.-China hegemony conflict. For some time now, there is a bipartisan consensus in Washington to decouple the American from the Chinese economy so as not to strengthen the competitor for global supremacy by supplying Beijing with its money and technology. Globally positioned companies now need to re-assemble their supply chains overnight. Will all of these corporations return to China when the immediate crisis is over? Corporate executives would then have to think twice whether to willingly ignore the geopolitical marching orders from Washington.

    And how will Europe’s companies reposition themselves after the crisis, after the costs of being overly dependent on Chinese supply chains have become all too clear? In the debate over whether the Chinese company Huawei should be excluded from the expansion of the European 5G infrastructure, Europeans already had a taste of how great American pressure can be. The corona crisis could then accelerate a development that has been going on for some time: deglobalisation. As a result, the global division of labor could disintegrate into competing economic blocs.

    Overnight, the Age of Neoliberalism Coming to an End

    Suddenly everything is happening very quickly. Within hours, such large sums are being pumped into the markets that make the “radical” promises of Democratic presidential candidate Senator Bernie Sanders seem like pocket money in comparison. German politicians, who yesterday had gotten heated up by the intellectual musings of young socialist Kevin Kühnert, are now seriously considering the nationalization of corporations. What was dismissed in the climate debate as the naive dreams of children is now a sad reality: global air traffic is coming to a standstill. Borders that were considered unclosable in the refugee crisis are now indeed closed. And along the way, conservative governor of Bavaria, Markus Söder has abandoned the German fetish of balanced budgets, announcing, “We will not be guided by accounting issues, but by what Germany needs.”

    The age of neoliberalism, in terms of  the primacy of market interests over all other social interests, is coming to an end. Of course, all of these measures are due to the state of emergency. However, citizens will remember them when they soon again are told ‘There is no alternative.’ With the crisis, long-dormant sphere of politics has been set into motion. After four decades of neoliberal scepticism about the state, a long forgotten fact is coming to the light: that nation states still have enormous creative power, if only they are willing to use it.

    The corona crisis amounts to an enormous field test. Millions of people are experimenting with new ways to organise their everyday lives.

    Like a spotlight, the corona crisis is illuminating the geopolitical, economic, ideological and cultural fault lines of our time. Might this crack in the edifice even signal an epochal break? Does the age of turbo-globalisation end with the decoupling of the major economic blocs? Are the oil price wars heralding the end of fossil industrial economies? Is the global financial system changing into a new regime? Is the system guarantor’s baton going from the United States to China, or are we experiencing the breakthrough of the multipolar world?

    What is certain is that the Coronavirus could lead to a breakthrough of a number of trends that have long been hidden. All of these developments are mutually influencing each other at breathtaking speed. This complexity suggests that this crisis will go deeper than the 2008 recession. The pandemic could be the burning fuse on the powder keg of a global system crisis.

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    Markus Söder in 2012. (Michael Lucan, Lizenz: CC-BY-SA 3.0 de, Wikimedia Commons)

    Window to Future Wide Open

    The corona crisis amounts to an enormous field test. Millions of people are experimenting with new ways to organise their everyday lives. Business travellers are switching from flights to video conferences. University teachers are holding webinars. Employees are working from home. Some will return to their old patterns after the crisis. But many now know from personal experience that the new way of operating not only works, but is also more environmentally and family-friendly. We have to use this moment of disruption, the immediate experience of deceleration, to generate long-term behavioural changes in the fight against climate change.

    British journalist Jeremy Warner cynically sums up the neoliberal view of the crisis: “From an entirely disinterested economic perspective, the COVID-19 might even prove mildly beneficial in the long term by disproportionately culling elderly dependents [sic!].” In stark contrast to the lack of solidarity shown by its governments, people are experiencing a wave of solidarity in their neighbourhoods, at work, and within their circles of friends. When was the last time the capitalist machine was halted in order to protect the old and the sick? We can build on this experience of solidarity to make society as a whole more cohesive again. If we manage to overcome the crisis together, we are creating a symbol at the dawn of a new era: a community that stays together can meet any challenge.

    However, reacting to the crisis also poses dangers. Borders are being closed around the globe, visas are cancelled, and entry bans are imposed on foreigners. The record number of orders for industrial robots indicates that the production chains will be made more resilient to breakdowns through a decisive step towards greater automation. Both trends threaten to accelerate the spiral of job losses, fear of social exclusion, resentment of immigrants, and political revolts against the liberal establishment.

    Liberal economist Philippe Legrain rightly warns: ‘The Coronavirus crisis is a political gift for nativist nationalists and protectionists. It has heightened perceptions that foreigners are a threat. It underscores that countries in crisis can’t always count on their neighbours and close allies for help.” We must not leave the right to interpret the crisis to right-wing populists. The answer to global challenges must not be isolation and national selfishness, but rather solidarity and international cooperation. As opposed to 2008, progressives cannot afford again to lose the battle over interpreting what is happening, and what needs to be done. Over the next weeks, the groundwork of the new world order will be laid. We must make sure we will shape the debates over how it will look like.

    A Stronger Democratic State Can Emerge

    Many, especially young people, are for the first time experiencing a national emergency. Within days, their freedoms are restricted to an unimaginable extent. Not only in China, but in the middle of Europe, technologies are being used on a large scale to monitor and regulate the behaviour of citizens. As the “fight against terrorism” taught us, many of the emergency regulations now enacted will remain in force after the crisis has ended. One does not need to sense a hidden agenda behind the normalization of the state of emergency, the way Giorgio Agamben and Naomi Klein do, which is to make individuals docile for disaster capitalism. However, we must prevent our fundamental rights from being permanently eroded.

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    Naomi Klein, a key critic of “disaster capitalism,”  on Oct. 6, 2011, Day 21 of Occupy Wall Street, when she led an open forum. (David Shankbone, CC BY 3.0, Wikimedia Commons)

    Slavoj Žižek hits the nail on the head when he warns that people rightly consider state power to be responsible: ‘you have the power, now show what you can do! The challenge for Europe is to show that what China has done can be done in a more transparent and democratic way.’ The East Asian democracies of South Korea, Taiwan and Japan have so far impressively demonstrated how to do this without unduly restricting citizens’ freedoms. Their approach seems more compatible with Western democracies than the draconian Chinese way. Still, successful management of the crisis would also strengthen confidence in the democratic state. In a crisis, people tend to rally around competent, hard-working and protective governments.

    The global crisis has raised awareness of how vulnerable hyperglobalisation has made us. In a globally networked world, pandemics can and do spread across borders at high speed.

    After years of austerity programmes have cut health care systems back to a bare minimum, now every effort must be made to enable the system to cope with the many sick people. The closure of municipal clinics, the chronic undersupply of nursing staff and the pitiful state of technical equipment are now taking their toll. Seldom has the demand to reverse the privatisation of health care received greater public support. In the crisis, Spain has quickly nationalized all of its private clinics and health services. In France, the President openly questions the wisdom of neoliberal privatisation and vows to shift course. In Germany, too, the debate has begun as to whether it was really prudent to subject our social life to the dictates of the market. In future, it must no longer be the individual’s interest in profit, but the common good of all that will be the central focus of public services.

    The reconstruction of public services requires investments in the order of billions. Chancellor Angela Merkel has affirmed that the constitutional debt brake does not apply in exceptional situations like these: “What the budget balance will look like in the end of the year is not the issue for us.” In the current situation, the German government is opening a historically unprecedented rescue umbrella for the economy, covering everyone from small self-employed and freelancers to large corporations. “We will do everything possible,” assured Federal Finance Minister Scholz. The framework for providing guarantees, in a total amount of half a trillion euros, is only the beginning, states Federal Minister of Economics Altmaier.

    Thus, in the crisis we are all Keynesians again. Unlike after the 2008 recession, we must not return to austerity after the crisis. After decades of austerity policies, many services are exhausted: health and education, local government, transport infrastructure, the German armed forces, and the police. In order to counter widespread fears of losing control, to prepare the economy and society for the digital revolution and, last but not least, to combat climate change, investments of historic proportions are necessary.

    Social Democracy Can Save Us from the Crisis

    The global crisis has raised awareness of how vulnerable hyperglobalization has made us. In a globally networked world, pandemics can and do spread across borders at high speed. Global supply chains are all too easily cut. The financial markets are vulnerable. Right-wing populists want to close the borders and isolate themselves from the world – but that is the wrong answer to the global challenges of epidemics, wars, migration, trade and climate change. Rather, our goal should be to address the root causes of these crises. To do this, the global economy must be placed on a more resilient foundation.

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    Image from U.S. history textbook used in Catholic primary schools in 1915. Text appearing with image: “They wanted to have their own assemblies levy the tax.” (Internet Archive Book Images, Flickr)

    In the wake of the Corona crisis, global supply chains are already reorganizing. Shorter supply chains, for example, with American production facilities in Mexico and European facilities in Eastern Europe, create more stability. Technologically, Europe must become sovereign again. To do this, we need to cooperate much more closely in research and development. The global financial system, which is held together by not more more than duct tape, urgently needs re-ordering. For over a decade, central banks have not been able to counter deflationary trends through monetary policies. In the crisis, governments with expansionary fiscal policies are jumping aside. Politically, this means a return to the the founding logic of parliamentarianism, the principle of “No taxation without representation.” In other words, the financial systems must be put back under democratic control.

    Conflicts arise from excessive interdependence. These conflicts must be cushioned by international norms and multilateral cooperation. The World Health Organization’s competent crisis management demonstrates the effectiveness of multilateral cooperation in combating the pandemic. Unlike the 2008 financial crisis, however, this time there is no coordinated response from the twenty largest economies. The geopolitical rivalry of the great powers on the one hand and the right-wing populist call for isolation on the other hand stand in the way of greater international cooperation. The existing elements of multilateral governance need to be strengthened with concrete contributions. This can begin by providing more solid funding to the World Health Organization and continuing with a G20 meeting to coordinate economic crisis management. Here the Alliance of Multilateralists can prove its value added.

    The crisis has made it drastically clear to the populace that the status quo cannot continue. The desire for a fundamental reorganisation of our economic activity and collective life has never been greater. At the same time, existential dangers must be fended off without disproportionately restricting democracy and freedoms. Which political power can negotiate the necessary social compromises to pull this off? The American political scientist Sheri Berman has posed an anxious question: “Can social democrats save the world (again)?” Let’s get it done.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 03/26/2020 – 22:45

  • "I’ve Never, Ever, Ever Seen Anything Like This Before"
    “I’ve Never, Ever, Ever Seen Anything Like This Before”

    With the Fed buying $622 billion in Treasury and MBS, a staggering 2.9% of US GDP, in just the past five days…

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    … any debate what to call the current phase of the Fed’s asset monetization – “NOT NOT-QE”, QE4, QE5, or just QEternity – can be laid to rest: because what the Fed is doing is simply Helicopter money, as it unleashes an unprecedented debt – and deficit – monetization program, one which is there to ensure that the trillions in new debt the US Treasury has to issue in the coming year to pay for the $2 (or is that $6) trillion stimulus package find a buyer, which with foreign central banks suddenly dumping US Treasuries

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    … would otherwise be quite problematic, even if it means the Fed’s balance sheet is going to hit $6 trillion in a few days.

    The problem, at least for traders, is that this new regime is something they have never encountered before, because during prior instances of QE, Treasuries were a safe asset. Now, however, with fears that helicopter money will unleash a tsunami of so much debt not even the Fed will be able to contain it resulting in hyperinflation, everything is in flux, especially when it comes to triangulating pricing on the all important 10Y and 30Y Treasury.

    Indeed, as Bloomberg writes today, core investor tenets such as what constitutes a safe asset, the value of bonds as a portfolio hedge, and expectations for returns over the next decade are all being thrown out as governments and central banks strive to avert a global depression.

    And as the now infamous “Money Printer go Brrr” meme captures so well, underlying the uncertainty is the risk that trillions of dollars in monetary and fiscal stimulus, and even more trillions in debt, “could create an eventual inflation shock that will trigger losses for bondholders.”

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    Needless to say, traders are shocked as for the first time in over a decade, they actually have to think:

    “I’ve never, ever, ever seen anything like this before,” Nader Naeimi, head of dynamic markets at AMP Capital Investors, told Bloomberg.

    “You have enormous buyers of debt meeting massive coordinated fiscal stimulus by governments across the globe. For bond investors, you’re caught between a rock and a hard place.”

    And while equity investors may be confident that in the long run, hyperinflation results in positive real returns if one sticks with stocks, the Weimar case showed that that is not the case. But that is a topic for another day. For now we will focus on bond traders, who are finding the current money tsunami unlike anything they have seen before.

    Indeed, while past quantitative easing programs have led to similar concerns, this emergency response is different because it’s playing out in weeks rather than months and limits on QE bond purchases have quickly been scrapped.

    Any hope that the Fed will ease back on the Brrring printer was dashed when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Thursday the central bank will maintain its efforts “aggressively and forthrightly” saying in an interview on NBC’s “Today” show that the Fed will not “run out of ammunition” after promising unlimited bond purchases. His comments came hours after the European Central Bank scrapped most of the bond-buying limits in its own program.

    The problem is that while this type of policy dominates markets, fundamental analysis scrambling to calculate discount rates and/or debt in the system fails, and “strategic thinking is stymied and some prized investment tools appear to be defunct”, said Ronald van Steenweghen of Degroof Petercam Asset Management.

    “Valuation models, correlation, mean reversion and other things we rely on fail in these circumstances,” said the Brussels-based money manager. Oh and as an added bonus, “Liquidity is also very poor so it is difficult to be super-agile.”

    The irony: the more securities the Fed soaks up, be they Treasuries, MBS, Corporate bonds, ETFs or stocks, the worse the liquidity will get, as the BOJ is finding out the hard way, as virtually nobody wants to sell their bonds to the central bank.

    Another irony: normally the prospect of a multi-trillion-dollar government spending surge globally ought to send borrowing costs soaring. But central bank purchases are now reshaping rates markets – emulating the Bank of Japan’s yield-curve control policy starting in 2016 – and quashing these latest volatility spikes.

    In effect, the Fed’s takeover of bond markets (and soon all capital markets), means that any signaling function fixed income securities have historically conveyed, is now gone, probably for ever.

    “Investors shouldn’t expect to see much more than moderately steep yield curves, since the Fed and its peers don’t want higher benchmark borrowing costs to undermine their stimulus,” said Blackrock strategist Scott Thiel. “That would be detrimental to financial conditions and to the ability for the stimulus to feed through to the economy. So the short answer is, it’s yield-curve control.”

    Said otherwise, pretty soon the entire yield curve will be completely meaningless when evaluating such critical for the economy conditions as the price of money or projected inflation. They will be, simply said, whatever the Fed decides.

    And with the yield curve no longer telegraphing any inflationary risk, it is precisely the inflationary imbalances that will build up at an unprecedented pace.

    Additionally, when looking further out, Bloomberg notes that money managers need to reassess another assumption that’s become widely held in recent years: that inflation is dead. Van Steenweghen says he’s interested in inflation-linked bonds, though timing a foray into that market is “tricky.”

    Naeimi also said he expects that the coordination by central banks and governments will spike inflation at some stage. “It all adds to the volatility of holding bonds,” he said. But for the time being, he’s range-trading Australian bonds — buying when 10-year yields hit 1.5%, and selling at 0.6%.

    That’s right: government bonds have become a daytrader’s darling. Whatever can possibly go wrong.

    But the biggest fear – one we have warned about since 2009 – is that helicopter money, which was always the inevitable outcome of QE, will lead to hyperinflation, and the collapse of both the US Dollar, and the fiat system, of which it is the reserve currency. Bloomberg agrees:

    Many market veterans agree that faster inflation may return in a recovery awash with stimulus that central banks and governments may find tough to withdraw. A reassessment of consumer-price expectations would be a major setback for expensive risk-free bonds, especially those with the longest maturities, which are most vulnerable to inflation eroding their value over time.

    Of course, at the moment that’s hard to envisage, with market-implied inflation barely at 1% over the next decade, but as noted above, at a certain point the bond market no longer produces any signal, just central bank noise, especially when, as Bloomberg puts it, “central bank balance sheets are set to explode further into unchartered territory.” Quick note to the Bloomberg editors: it is “uncharted”, although you will have plenty of opportunity to learn this in the coming months.

    Alas, none of this provides any comfort to bond traders who no longer have any idea how to trade in this new “helicopter normal“, and thus another core conviction is being revised: the efficacy of U.S. Treasuries as a safe haven and portfolio hedge.

    Mark Holman, chief executive and founding partner of TwentyFour Asset Management in London, started questioning that when the 10-year benchmark hit its historic low early this month.

    “Will government bonds play the same role in your portfolio going forward as they have in the past?” he said. “To me the answer is no they don’t — I’d rather own cash.”

    For now, Mark is turning to high-quality corporate credit for low-risk income, particularly in the longer maturity bonds gradually rallying back from a plunge, especially since they are now also purchased by the Fed. He sees no chance of central banks escaping the zero-bound’s gravitational pull in the foreseeable future. “What we do know is we’re going to have zero rates around the world for another decade, and we’re going to have the need for income for another decade,” he said.

    Other investors agree that cash is the only solution, which is why T-Bills – widely seen as cash equivalents – are now trading with negative yields for 3 months and over.

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    Yet others rush into the safety of gold… if they can find it. At least check, physical gold was trading with a 10% premium to paper gold and rising fast.

    Ultimately, as Bloomberg concludes, investors will have to find their bearings “in a crisis without recent historical parallel.”

    “It’s very hard to look at this in a historical context and then apply an investment framework around it,” said BlackRock’s Thiel. “The most applicable period is right before America entered WW2, when you had gigantic stimulus to spur the war effort. I mean, Ford made bombers in WW2 and now they’re making ventilators in 2020.”


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 03/26/2020 – 22:30

  • Footage Of Indian Police Beating Lockdown Violators Goes Viral
    Footage Of Indian Police Beating Lockdown Violators Goes Viral

    With only 500 or so cases confirmed as of Tuesday, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared in a late-night address that as of midnight (at the time, only a few hours away) the entire country of between 1.3 and 1.4 billion people would be placed under a strict lockdown.

    Individuals would be allowed to leave just once per day to buy food, and only for trips to buy essential products like medicine, or to see a doctor.

    Modi claimed the 21-day lockdown would be necessary to avoid setting India back “21 years”, and argued that “to save India, to save its every citizen, you, your family…every street, every neighborhood is being put under lockdown.”

    Less than a day later, images and video of Indian police beating citizens caught violating the lockdown, or perhaps mistakenly accused of leaving home for frivolous reasons when they were really out buying food.

    Alok Barman, a houseworker who works in south Delhi, said he was beaten by cops when he ventured into the outskirts of the city to try and find food, according to wire reports cited by the NYP.

    “Some homes that I work in paid me some money and I thought it was best to get some food in the house. But the police attacked us with sticks and beat us,” Barman said. “Now we have nothing to eat.”

    Another local, Tarique Anwar, said he went out to buy milk and vegetables at a grocery store in Delhi’s Jamia Nagar neighborhood, but was stopped by police, who ordered him to turn back. While the owner of a meat shop, whose name wasn’t given, said police beat him for opening his store on Wednesday even though he thought it was protected as an essential business.

    “They charged inside and started abusing and beating me,” the store owner said.

    Some of the video show police forcing locals to do uncomfortable exercises like squats.

    While other videos showed police beating locals with sticks.

    So if you decide to violate India’s lockdown, you better be in good shape.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 03/26/2020 – 22:25

  • Welcome To The War On Death
    Welcome To The War On Death

    Authored (satirically) by CJ Hopkins via The Unz Review,

    OK, I’ve got some good news and I’ve got some some bad news.

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    The good news is mainly for authoritarians who missed all the fun during the War on Terror. The news is … welcome to the War on Death!

    Yes, that’s right, global capitalism (a/k/a “the world”) is now at war with Death … which is great news for authoritarians! No more bothersome critical thinking. The time for questioning our leaders is over. It’s time to shut up and follow orders. We’re in a global state of emergency, folks! We’re talking lockdowns, soldiers in the streets, abrogation of our constitutional rights, arbitrary arrests, indefinite detentions, round-the-clock media fear-propaganda … the whole totalitarian megillah!

    What, you’re probably asking, is the War on Death? Well … for those who remember the War on Terror, the War on Death is just like that, except this time the evil enemy is Death … or, all right, maybe not exactly like that, but there are a number of striking similarities.

    For one thing, just like the War on Terror, we didn’t start it. Death attacked us! There we were, peacefully going about our global capitalist business, quelling a worldwide “populist” rebellion orchestrated by Russian-backed Nazis, when Death attacked us with a coronavirus … more or less exactly the way that the terrorists attacked us in 2001.

    And, just like after those terrorist attacks, the world has united and forcefully responded. No, we haven’t invaded Iraq again (well, actually, we did bomb them a little), but we have locked down almost the entire planet, virtually shut down the global economy, and are scaring the masses into a state of unprecedented mass hysteria.

    Police are patrolling the streets of Europe, checking people’s “permission-to-go-outside” papers. In the U.K., soldiers are standing by to assist with “protecting possible quarantine zones,” or to “cope with the breakdown of civil society.” Israel is tapping its formerly secret collection of everyone’s mobile phone records to identify people who might be infected, and assorted “others who need to be quarantined.”

    Macron (now relieved of his Gilets Jaunes problem!) is ready to “rule by decree” if necessary. California is “prepared to enact martial law.” The U.S. military is “prepared to deploy in support of potential extraordinary missions,” including “quelling civil disturbances.”

    The U.S. Department of Justice is asking Congress for the power to detain people indefinitely. The British Parliament is on the brink of passing an emergency “Coronavirus Bill” that will (among other unsettling provisions) grant authorities the power to arrest and indefinitely quarantine anyone they deem a “potentially infectious person” … or, in other words, pretty much anyone they want.

    As if that wasn’t dystopian enough, according to a report in Politico:

    “Counter-terrorism troops have been redeployed across Italy to beef up police forces throughout Italian cities. Patrol cars are now circulating in every major city in Italy with a monotone male voice warning citizens over a loudspeaker not to leave their residences or risk a ticket. ‘GO BACK INTO YOUR HOMES,’ the voice warns.”

    But wait, it gets even better than that. In Missouri, prosecutors have charged an idiot who licked some items at Walmart as a “terrorist.” I kid you not, a Coronavirus Terrorist.

    I could go on, but I think you get the picture (if you need more examples, check this Twitter thread).

    The point is, the global capitalist empire (for whatever reasons, real or imagined) has turned on the MINDLESS HYSTERIA machine, and dialed it up as high as it goes. People are in full-blown headless chicken mode. No one (or hardly anyone) is thinking, or listening to dissenting opinions, or paying attention to official statistics, or common sense, or anything else that contradicts the War on Death narrative.

    The British tabloids are publishing horror stories about “doctors” standing by and helplessly watching as patients slowly suffocate to death. According to such stories, not only are these “doctors” unable to treat roughly 400 patients with any of the UK’s over 8,000 ventilators, but, apparently, patients whose hearts have stopped (and who are therefore unconscious) are also now capable of “dying in agony” with “terror in their eyes.”

    According to The New York Times, the Coronapocalypse has begun in Elmhurst, where the authorities have called in the refrigerator trucks to haul away the mountains of corpses, after 13 people who “had tested positive” died (of something) in the course of one day.

    The rest of the corporate media are running moment-by-moment deathometer updates, apocalyptic prognostications of the millions or billions who are possibly going to die, and of course the latest on which celebrities have been infected and are clinging to life, or experiencing mild, cold-like symptoms, or absolutely no symptoms whatsoever. Greta suspects she might have been infected! Prince Charles! Colton Underwood (whoever that is), Tom Hanks, and even Idris Elba! Just the other night, celebrated playwright Terrence McNally (who was 81, and had a history of lung cancer and COPD) was struck down in the prime of his life!

    In short, the authorities have whipped the masses into an orgy of shrieking, white-eyed FEAR of this new, evil, “invisible enemy” that is coming to kill them and their families. Millions of people (now confined in their homes) have taken to the Internet to pump up the hysteria, share totally un-sourced personal accounts of the horrors their therapists’ accountants’ doctors have personally witnessed on the war’s “front lines,” and hunt down any infected persons, or potentially infected persons (or otherwise uncooperative persons) who might have gone outside for some air.

    So, that’s the good news for you authoritarians!

    For the rest of us … yeah, not so good.

    Oh, I almost forgot the bad news. The bad news is … well, the bad news is Death. The bad news is, you are going to die. I’m going to die. We are all going to die. All of us. We are going to die. We are going to die of … well, something. Cancer. A heart attack. A stroke. The flu. Diabetes. Alzheimer’s disease. Possibly a coronavirus. Maybe even this coronavirus.

    In fact, a lot of us are dying right now, according to the Internet, around a hundred per minute … which, it goes without saying, is unacceptable, and a tragedy, and something we need to take drastic action to prevent at all costs. We can’t let these Russian dissension sowersneo-Nazi accelerationists, and coronavirus-sympathizers confuse us. They want to convince us that Death is, yes, scary, and sad, but inevitable, and natural. How utterly heartless and insane is that?!

    No, we need to close our minds to that nonsense. People are dying! This is not normal! Death is our enemy! We have to defeat it! We need to hunt down and neutralize Death! Root it out if its hidey hole and hang it like we did with Saddam!

    I’m not kidding. There is a war on, people! GloboCap is taking the gloves off again. (You remember what happens when the gloves come off, don’t you?) So get your mind right and get with the program or get ready to face the consequences.

    Relax, I’m not referring to all these tanks (2:34 in the NBC video). I’m referring to other consequences. I am not some crazy conspiracy theorist. Plus, Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti has assured us there’s no cause for concern:

    “If and when National Guard or military units are deployed to the streets of L.A., trust me, I’ll let you know.”

    See? Everything is perfectly fine. No one is preparing for martial law. Those tanks just returned from the Middle East and are “being sent back home to Texas.” This kind of thing happens all the time. It has nothing to do with the global lockdown.

    I don’t know about you, but I’m extremely relieved… for a moment there I thought we were in trouble.

    *  *  *

    C. J. Hopkins is an award-winning American playwright, novelist and political satirist based in Berlin. His plays are published by Bloomsbury Publishing and Broadway Play Publishing, Inc. His dystopian novel, Zone 23, is published by Snoggsworthy, Swaine & Cormorant. Volume I of his Consent Factory Essays is published by Consent Factory Publishing, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Amalgamated Content, Inc. He can be reached at cjhopkins.com or consentfactory.org.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 03/26/2020 – 22:05

  • Pandemonium In The Pacific: US Carrier Diverts To Guam As COVID-19 Cases Spike Among Crew
    Pandemonium In The Pacific: US Carrier Diverts To Guam As COVID-19 Cases Spike Among Crew

    An absolute disaster is fast unfolding aboard the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt in the Western Pacific causing emergency contingency plans to be put in place. 

    By Wednesday eight sailors aboard the carrier tested positive for COVID-19, but clearly the outbreak aboard the ship is nowhere near being contained as on Thursday the US Navy said that number has jumped to 23 sailors confirmed for the virus.

    Pentagon officials further admitted the ability to conduct widespread testing aboard the ship is limited in a situation so dangerous that the carrier has been diverted from it’s original course, though Acting Navy Secretary Thomas B. Modly sought to stress “the ship is operationally capable and can do it’s mission if required” — no doubt a message ultimately meant for America’s rivals and enemies in the region.

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    The aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt, US Navy image.

    The outbreak has sent ship crew and US troops in Guam scrambling, reports The Daily Beast, as it appears a nightmare outbreak among military service-members is unfolding:

    U.S. Navy and Marine Corps service members in Guam were ordered on Wednesday to break their own quarantine to set up makeshift shelters for U.S. troops coming off a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, where an outbreak of the novel coronavirus is rapidly spreading within the hulls of the ship.

    Some of the U.S. troops at Naval Base Guam, located on the western side of the U.S. territory at Apra Harbor, were assembled into 100-man working parties to begin transforming some of the base’s facilities into temporary quarantine shelters for some of the 5,000 service members arriving from the aircraft carrier U.S.S. Theodore Roosevelt, a naval vessel where COVID-19 is spreading. 

    The nature of the emergency is unprecedented, causing one unidentified US service member to tell The Daily Beast“We’re fucked” — given obvious concerns that base personnel will be potentially exposed to coronavirus via the disembarking USS Roosevelt crew.

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    The Pentagon did not try to downplay the situation. Acting Secretary Modly said it’s urgent enough to conduct tests on 100% of the crew, presumably in Guam.

    We found several more cases aboard the ship, we are in the process now of testing 100 percent of the crew of that ship to ensure that we are able to contain whatever spread that might have occurred there… but I also want to emphasize that the ship is operationally capable and can do it’s mission if required,”  Modly said at the Pentagon on Thursday. 

    On average, about 7,000 American troops are more are stationed among Guam’s multiple US bases (three major bases plus smaller HQs). The Roosevelt had recently been on deployment in the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean region as part of the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran.

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    Navy vessels are moored in port at the U.S. Naval Base Guam at Apra Harbor, Guam. Via Reuters.

    “But in Guam on Wednesday, both Navy and Marine Corps service members set up roughly 140 military beds in a basketball gymnasium,” the Daily Beast report continues. “To squeeze more troops into the gym, Navy medical professionals recommended measuring the six-foot distance per guidance from the CDC from the center of the bed rather than from the outer edges, meaning, that the beds are actually 3-feet apart.”

    All of this means that some ten to twelve-thousand plus US personnel will be squeezed onto Guam’s bases at a moment the Navy is dealing with an alarming development of 133 cases total of COVID-19 branch-wide this week.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 03/26/2020 – 21:45

  • Wake Up! Your Fears Are Being Manipulated
    Wake Up! Your Fears Are Being Manipulated

    Authored by Peter van Buren via TheAmericanConservative.com,

    We have a terrifying example in 9/11 of how this goes… Let’s calm down and figure out who has what to gain by stirring panic…  

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    I’m not worried about the guy coughing next to me. I’m worried about the ones who seem to be looking for Jim Jones.

    Jones was the charismatic founder of the cult-like People’s Temple. Through fear-based control, he took his followers’ money and ran their lives. He isolated them in Guyana where he convinced over 900 of them to commit suicide by drinking cyanide-laced grape Kool Aid. Frightened people can be made to do anything. They just need a Jim Jones.

    So it is more than a little scary that media zampolit Rick Wilson wrote to his 753,000 Twitter followers: “People who sank into their fear of Trump, who defended every outrage, who put him before what they knew was right, and pretended this chaos and corruption was a glorious new age will pay a terrible price. They deserve it.” The tweet was liked over 82,000 times.

    The New York Times claims that “the specter of death speeds across the globe, ‘Appointment in Samara’-style, ever faster, culling the most vulnerable.” Others are claiming Trump will cancel the election to rule as a Jim Jones. “Every viewer who trusts the words of Earhardt or Hannity or Regan could well become a walking, breathing, droplet-spewing threat to the public,” opined the Washington Post. Drink the damn Kool Aid and join in the panic en route to Guyana.

    The grocery store in Manhattan, just after the announcement of the national state of emergency, was pure panic. I saw a fight break out after an employee brought out paper towels to restock the shelf and someone grabbed the whole carton for himself. The police were called. One cop had to stay behind to oversee the lines at the registers and maintain order. To their credit, the NYPD were cool about it. I heard them talk down one of the fighters, saying, “You wanna go to jail over Fruit Loops? Get a hold of yourself.” Outside New York, sales of weapons and ammunition spiked.

    Panic seems to be something we turn on and off, or moderate in different ways. Understanding that helps reveal what is really going on.

    No need for history. Right now, in real time, behind the backs of the coronavirus, is the every-year, plain-old influenza. Some 12,000 people have died, with over 13 million infected from influenza just between October 2019 and February 2020. The death toll is screamingly higher (as of this writing, coronavirus has infected 60,653 and killed 819 Americans). Bluntly: more people have already died of influenza in the U.S. than from the coronavirus in China, Iran, and Italy combined. Double in fact. To be even blunter, no one really cares, even though a large number of bodies are piling up. Why?

    The first cases of the swine flu, H1N1, appeared in April 2009. By the time Obama finally declared a national emergency seven months later, the CDC was reporting that 50 million Americans, one in six people, had been infected, and 10,000 Americans had died. In the early months, Obama had no HHS secretary or appointees to the department’s 19 key posts, as well as no commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, no surgeon general, no CDC director. The vacancy at the CDC was especially important because in the early days of the crisis, only they could test for the virus (sound familiar?). Yet some 66 percent of Americans thought the president was protecting them. There was no panic. Why?

    Of course, Trump isn’t Obama. But if you really think it is that black and white, that one man makes that much difference in the multi-leveled response of the vast federal government, you don’t know much about bureaucracy. Most of the people who handled the swine flu are now working the coronavirus, from the rank and file at CDC, HHS, and DHS to headliners like Drs. Andrew Fauci (in government since 1968, worked ebola) and Deborah Brix (in government since 1985, prior to corona was an Obama AIDS appointee).

    Maybe the most salient example is 9/11. Those who lived through it remember it well, the color threat alerts, the jihadi cells around every corner, the sense of learned/taught helplessness. The enemy could be anywhere, everywhere, and we had no way to fight back. But because the Dems and Repubs were saying the same thing, there was a patina of camaraderie to it (led by Rudy Giuliani and Mike Bloomberg, where are they now?), not discord. But the panic was still very real.

    Why? We panicked when people took steps to ensure we would. We were kept calm when there was nothing to gain by spurring us to panic (the swine flu struck in the midst of the housing crisis; there was enough to worry about). After 9/11, a fearful populace not only supported everything the government wanted to do, they demanded more. Nearly everyone cheered the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and not believing the government meant you were on their side. The Patriot Act, which did away with whole swaths of the Bill of Rights, was overwhelmingly supported. There was no debate over torture, offshore penal colonies, assassinations, kidnappings, and all the little horrors. The American people counted that as competent leadership and re-elected George W. Bush. Fear was political currency.

    Need a 2020 example of how to manipulate panic? Following fears of a liquid bomb, the TSA limited carry-on liquids to four ounces for years. Can’t be too careful! Yet because of corona, they just changed the limit for hand sanitizer only (which, with its alcohol content, is actually flammable, as opposed to say, shampoo) to 12 ounces. Security theater closed down alongside Broadway tonight.

    False metrics are also manipulative because they make fear seem scientific. We ignore the low death rate and focus on the number of tests done. But whatever we do will never be enough, never can be enough, the same way any post-disaster aid is never delivered quick enough because the testing is not (just) about discovering the extent of the virus. For those with naughty motives, it is about creating a race we can’t win, so testing becomes proof of failure. Think about the reality of “everyone who wants one should get a test.” The U.S. has 331 million people. Testing 10 percent of them in seven days means 4,714,285 individuals a day while the other 90 percent hold their breath. Testing on demand is not realistic at this scale. Selective decision-based testing is what will work.

    South Korea, held up as the master of mass testing, conducted at its peak about 20,000 a day. Only 4 percent were positive, a lot of effort for a little reassurance. Tests are valuable to pinpoint the need for social distancing, but blunt tools like mass social distancing (see China) also work. Tests do not cure the virus. You can hide the number of infections by not testing (or claim so to spur fear), but very sick people make themselves known at hospitals and actual dead bodies are hard to ignore. Tests get the press, but actual morbidity is the clearest data point.

    There will be time for after-action reviews and arguments over responsibility. That time is never in the midst of things, and one should question the motives of journalists who use rare access to the president to ask questions meant largely to undermine confidence. If they succeed, we will soon turn on each other. You voted for him; that’s why we’re here now. Vote for Bernie and Trump wins and we all literally die. You bought the last toilet paper. You can afford treatment I can’t. You’re safe working from home while I have to go out. Just wait until the long-standing concept of medical triage is repackaged by the media as “privilege” and hell breaks loose in the ERs. We could end up killing each other even as the virus fades.

    At the very least, we will have been conditioned to new precedents of control over personal decisions, civil life, freedom of movement and assembly, whole city lockdowns, education, and an increasing role for government and the military in health care. Teachers, don’t be surprised if less of you, and fewer classrooms, are needed in the virus-free future, in favor of more classes online. It’s almost as if someone is taking advantage of our fears for their own profits and self-interest.

    There are many reasons to take prudent action. There are no good reasons for fear and panic. The fear being promoted has no rational basis compared to regular influenza and the swine flu of 2009. We have a terrifying example in 9/11 of how easily manipulated fearful people are. Remaining calm and helping others do so is a big part of what your contribution to the disaster relief could be.

    That’s one way to see this. Too many right now, however, seem to be looking for Jim Jones.

    *  *  *

    Peter Van Buren, a 24-year State Department veteran, is the author of We Meant Well: How I Helped Lose the Battle for the Hearts and Minds of the Iraqi People, Hooper’s War: A Novel of WWII Japan, and Ghosts of Tom Joad: A Story of the #99 Percent.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 03/26/2020 – 21:25

  • Americans Coping With Virus-Inspired Toilet Paper Shortage Are Clogging Pipes In Unprecedented Numbers
    Americans Coping With Virus-Inspired Toilet Paper Shortage Are Clogging Pipes In Unprecedented Numbers

    Millions of Americans sheltering in place at home combined with an acute shortage of toilet paper inventory in grocery stores and wholesale clubs across the country – even as manufacturers continue to insist that there’s been no cutback in production – has created an unprecedented crisis for municipal and metropolitan sewer systems.

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    The New York Times reports that sewer officials around the country are pleading with residents not to flush baby wipes, tissue paper, and paper towels, even if the products purport to be “flushable”.

    These toilet paper-alternatives don’t break up like toilet paper does, and thus they’ve contributed to unprecedented blockages around the country.

    But with toilet paper still unavailable in stores around the country, and with store employees typically answering desperate shoppers’ questions about when it might arrive with a shrug, it’s unclear when the supply ‘non-shortage’ will clear up. Some industry executives said the shortages will end once shoppers stop hoarding, but they’ve been saying that for days.

    Remember, kids: #WipesClogPipes.

    Across the country – in Charleston, S.C.; northeastern Ohio; Lexington, Ky.; Austin, Texas; and Spokane, Wash. – wastewater treatment officials have beseeched residents not to flush wipes down the toilet using the hashtag #WipesClogPipes.

    “Flushable wipes are not truly flushable,” said Jim Bunsey, chief operating officer of the Northeast Ohio Regional Sewer District. “They might go down the drain, but they do not break up like regular toilet paper.”

    The plumbing repair company Roto-Rooter issued a similar plea to its customers, and said that substituting facial tissue for toilet paper was “another bad idea,” unless it’s used in small amounts and flushed frequently.

    The California State Water Resources Control Board warned this week that “even wipes labeled ‘flushable’ will clog pipes and interfere with sewage collection and treatment throughout the state.”

    “Flushing wipes, paper towels and similar products down toilets will clog sewers and cause backups and overflows at wastewater treatment facilities, creating an additional public health risk in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic,” it said.

    The agency said wastewater treatment plants across California were reporting problems.

    Plumbers told the NYT that they were fielding an unprecedented number of calls, considering the level of national lockdown, as clogged toilets quickly escalated into a desperate situation for homeowners.

    Plumbers said they were fielding an increase in calls from people working from home and self-quarantining.

    “We have noticed an uptick in the amount of clogged main sewer lines and, when we dispatch our technicians, we are pulling baby wipes out of the line and we’re seeing paper towels and Lysol wipes,” Mark Russo, vice president of Russo Brothers & Company, a plumbing and heating service in East Hanover, NJ, said on Saturday.

    “These items are things that should never be flushed down the toilet,” he said.

    It’s just one of the many unanticipated ancillary complications by the ructions in normal society caused by the world’s first true pandemic in a century.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 03/26/2020 – 21:05

  • Fed Balance Sheet Hits $5.5 Trillion As Discount Window Usage Soars
    Fed Balance Sheet Hits $5.5 Trillion As Discount Window Usage Soars

    As previewed last night when we showed that in the past week the Fed has bought a staggering $587BN in Treasuries and MBS, we calculated that as of March 25, the Fed’s balance sheet would rise to a record $5.3 trillion, a phenomenal increase of $1.2 trillion in just the past two weeks, equivalent to roughly 5.6% of US GDP.

    Today, the release of the latest weekly H.4.1 statement from the Fed confirmed our math, and that as of close on Wednesday, March 25, the Fed’s total asset were indeed $5.3 trillion. Which, sadly, is now a stale number because we now live in a world where the Fed buys a record $125 billion in bonds (and who knows what else either directly or via Blackrock) every single day, which means that as of the Friday’s close, the Fed will have added a record $625 billion to its balance sheet…

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    … and more specifically, $250 billion to the total as of March 25. In other words, in just a few short hours, the Fed’s balance sheet will be $5.5 trillion…

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    … an increase of $1.3 trillion in two weeks (6% of GDP), which was the amount the Fed monetized during all of QE1 in response to the financial crisis, but which took place over a period of almost 2 years.

    And as an aside, the Fed’s push to get banks to use the discount window appears to have worked: after more than a decade of stigma associated with any bank caught within 100 feet of the Primary Credit Facility, also known as the Discount Window, and with zero usage since mid-2010, last week borrowings under the Discount Window surge to $40 billion.

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    And while the Fed’s attempts to legitimize and de-stigmatize Discount Window usage are noble, we doubt it will be public just which bank(s) had to resort to this “Plan Z” source of funding.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 03/26/2020 – 20:58

  • Putin Front-Runs QE, Proposes Taxing Investment Outflows
    Putin Front-Runs QE, Proposes Taxing Investment Outflows

    Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns,

    Russia is going to be a destination for safe-haven flows in the post-COVID-19 world. It will be due to its vast savings, prudent fiscal policy and maneuver room available in monetary policy.

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    The biggest reason, however, for why I think Russia looks attractive to foreign investors is simply because of its political stability. Putin deftly proposed to devolve power out of the presidency and reorganize both his cabinet and the current government before the outbreak.

    And while the final vote on these changes has been delayed because of COVID-19 they will very likely pass without incident when the worst of the crisis in Russia is over.

    The same cannot be said for Russia’s neighbors in Europe, where the response has been both heavy-handed and inadequate to stem the tide against the virus.

    And given the extreme fragility of the European banking system the response on the financial side both fiscally and through monetary policy will destroy what little confidence exists there.

    When no less than former ECB President Mario Draghi is writing in the Financial Times to justify dropping the fiduciary equivalent of a nuclear bomb on Europe, you know things are desperate.

    You only bring out the big guns when things are ready for substantive change.

    Read Draghi’s words carefully and you’ll notice the only time he references the past is to justify, what else, war spending. There is no other way to fight this fight.

    We must print all the money in the world and destroy the futures of our grand children in order to save ourselves today. It’s typical apocalyptic rhetoric from someone who was the architect of the current system’s fragility in the first place.

    Draghi actively destroyed not only real capital and real wealth with negative interest rates he destroyed the sovereign debt market in Europe by buying up whole swaths of it.

    Christine Lagarde came in this morning to continue Draghi’s work, pushing down European bond yields after the U.S. Senate approved the biggest stimulus package in our history.

    And into this mess Russia will also be spending money. Most of this was money already earmarked for this year. Putin is no Austro-libertarian or anything. There’s going to be stimulus in Russia.

    And that’s why, at the same time, he’s looking to shore up Russia’s tax reciepts by shifting some of the tax burden to those looking to take advantage of what are now very high real rates of return on Russian capital.

    Putin is putting a 15% tax (or tariff) on dividends paid to foreign entities as a way to front run the influx of capital fleeing the destruction that’s happening around Russia.

    I was contacted for a comment by Sputnik News on this and here’s what I had to say:

    “Putin is trying to get in front of capital outflow in the case of a wider global recession since Russian companies are more likely to weather that storm better than in a lot of other countries”, the analyst says.

    Luongo underscores that the Russian president has recently put an emphasis on the concept that companies which “benefitted from the state’s assistance should be held to account for bettering Russia”. Likewise, “international investors should be on the hook paying back that assistance”, he notes.

    According to Luongo, the Kremlin is “also trying to ensure that Russia as a destination for capital fleeing the chaos in the West doesn’t become a kind of ‘high-yield’ slush fund”.

    “Russia is about to spend a lot of money in support of its economy and Putin understands that as the West struggles Russia will be seen as an emerging safe haven”, he adds. “And this tariff on dividends is a way of attenuating that and offsetting lower oil tariffs”.

    With oil at or below $30 per barrel there is now a much bigger hole in Russia’s budget as tariffs from domestic oil and gas producers will likely drop to near zero. Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov expects a shortfall of RUB 3 trillion next year (~$38.7 billion).

    So, some of that money can be made up elsewhere and taxing foreign investors looking for easy 10-12% real yields makes sense. Currently Russian 10 year government bonds trade around 7%. That number is likely to continue falling back to its longer-term run rate since yield curves in the West are getting crushed right now thanks to QE and further financial repression.

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    When most western economies are going to be contracting between 5-10% for the next couple of quarters the potential real yields for investors is very tasty. And it makes sense for Putin to want to 1) slow that down and 2) offset the lost oil revenues.

    Into this market the Bank of Russia could easily sell into demand and recoup a lot of its coupon payments on the back end through this tariff without having to lower rates to over-stimulate the Russian domestic markets.

    But, these are all secondary effects. The main effect is to protect the domestic economy from capital inflow that does nothing to assist the development of Russia’s non-oil economy.

    As all those new trillions in bailout money come in to blow a bubble in Russian assets and take all the money right back out again when a slightly better deal comes along.

    I’m no fan of tariffs but in a world of unlimited money printing a move like this makes sense, especially now that you are public enemy #1 for having helped precipitate the crash overseas in the first place.

    *  *  *

    Join My Patreon because you hate QE.  Install the Brave Browser if you want to help mitigate QE


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 03/26/2020 – 20:45

  • President Trump Urges Governors To Rank Counties By Virus Risk In Bid To Re-Open America's Economy
    President Trump Urges Governors To Rank Counties By Virus Risk In Bid To Re-Open America’s Economy

    President Trump said in a letter to governors today that governments should soon be ranking individual counties across the U.S. as “low, medium or high” risk for coronavirus outbreaks, in what is likely a beginning stage attempt to get the wheels of the American economy turning again. 

    His letter says:

    “My administration is working to publish new guidelines for state and local policymakers to use in making decisions about maintaining, increasing, or relaxing social distancing and other mitigation measures they have put in place.”

    “This is what we envision: Our expanded testing capabilities will quickly enable us to publish criteria, developed in close coordination with the nation’s public health officials and scientists, to help classify counties with respect to continued risks posed by the virus,” it continues.

    Infographic: Where COVID-19 Has Been Confirmed in the U.S. | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Here is Trump’s full letter to America’s Governors:

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    Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases stated in an interview with NBA star Steph Curry on Thursday that some parts of the country may be able to back off the social distancing guidelines that are being stressed heavily in places like New York City. 

    “There are places in the country now where you want to look at carefully and say you know maybe you want to pull back a little bit on the restrictions so long as you don’t just say let it rip and say I don’t care what happens,” Fauci told Curry. 

    “You treat New York City a little different than you treat Nebraska,” he continued. 

    White House counselor Kellyanne Conway assured the nation on Fox News Thursday that President Trump is “listening to his health professionals” and that his proposed date of Easter to get the country back on its feet is only “an example”, according to Bloomberg.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 03/26/2020 – 20:25

  • Dual Paths In Dark Times: Despair Or Hope For Antiwar Dreamers
    Dual Paths In Dark Times: Despair Or Hope For Antiwar Dreamers

    Authored by Danny Sjursen via AntiWar.com,

    “Red” (Morgan Freeman): “Hope is a dangerous thing my friend, it can kill a man…”

    Andy (Tim Robbins): “Remember, Red. Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies.”

    The Shawshank Redemption (1994)

    Two futures lie before us. Like the classic visions of late-Old Testament prophets, contemporary observers – perhaps voyeurs – of U.S. national security policy can, at this precipice of pandemic, discern, however vaguely, as dual, dichotomous prospective paths unfurl.

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    The first, and Washington’s long-preferred, course is one of militarist escalation.

    It’s contours are there for us to see.

    In the past couple of weeks, the Pentagon has unapologetically ramped up its proxy war with Iran – on the soil of an unmistakably unwilling “sovereign” state which has politely, if futilely, asked the US military to leave – by bombing, and killing, third-party “allies” of the Islamic Republic.

    Then, though it was hardly covered or noticed, Washington killed a Somali child and an elderly disabled man in an airstrike: the 31st such US attack-from-the-sky in a Trump-accelerated campaign upon yet another country we are not at war with. US Africa Command announced, of course, that five “terrorists” had been killed in the strike with zero reports of civilian casualties. Well, naturally, it helps to have folks on the ground (hardly the norm for America’s techno-killers) to accurately access victim-status. Which is probably one reason – besides flagrant duplicity – that a UK-based airstrike monitoring group’s relevant report estimates Somali civilian casualties in US attacks since 2007 may be 73 times higher than official Pentagon claims.

    Nor should anyone forget that the U.S.-backed and critically enabled Saudi/UAE terror war on, and blockade of, Yemen hasn’t ceased. Back when most folks thought “Corona” was just a cheap brand of cerveza, that unlucky nation – already the Arab World’s poorest – had the ignoble distinction of being the globe’s grimmest humanitarian disaster area. With more than 100,000 war-related deaths and counting, Yemen still faces the world’s worst cholera outbreak. Now, hidden under the veil of pandemic-media-blackout, America’s ostensible Saudi and Emirati “allies” – I think the kids call them frenemies – have just violently turned on each other in South Yemen. It seems a predictably failed US policy on the Arabian Peninsula has finally reached it’s absurd destined denouement, as Washington’s treasured, theocratic, authoritarian, Arab state “partners” turn fratricidal.

    Finally, in a fit of remarkable sadism – even for him, and the late-stage empire he “diplomatically” represents – last week Secretary of State Mike Pompeo reportedly (unsuccessfully) urged President Trump to use this pandemic opportunity to bomb Iran. For this former military academy valedictorian – the current administration is literally loaded with members of Pompeo’s Class of 1986, calling themselves the “West Point Mafia” – chickenhawk who never saw a shot fired in anger, waging proxy war with Iran isn’t sufficient. That’s right: Mr. Pompeo sought to attack a sovereign state the congress has not declared war upon, which is riddled with Corona, and has already had its public health response crippled by brutal US economic sanctions.

    Sanctions are usually – as is empirically provable – ineffective, and always tantamount to murder (of innocents), especially in times of disease-pandemic. That’s by design; the inherent nature of the blockade beast. Need proof? Consider the case of Iraq: the absolute gold standard of U.S.-imposed (1990-2003) sanctions-cruelty. We now know – actually have long known – that, according to a widely cited UNICEF report, economic sanctions killed more than 500,000 children there, by increasing the infant mortality rate. Lest one naively suppose this to be the unintended cost of doing business, recall that Defense Intelligence Agency documents (DIA) uncovered in 2001, proved that the US purposefully “used sanctions against Iraq to degrade the country’s water supply after the [1991] Gulf War,” and admitted that “This could lead to increased incidences, if not epidemics, of disease.”

    So, sure, one potential path is to tighten the embargo-noose on Cuba, Iran, Venezuela, Yemen, and other states that Uncle Sam deems disagreeable. Recent events and administration pronouncements indicate that to be the Trump team’s opportunistic inclination. This in spite of a litany of credible reports showing such sanctions have killed, and will kill, thousands upon thousands of innocents. What’s certain is that “maximum pressure,” applied to Iran or others, will doom countless more.

    All of which is to say nothing about the final – and perhaps most treacherous – threat on the potential Corona-contemporaneous path: that of government’s proven penchant for opportunistic domestic suppression. The disturbing writing is already on the wall in reports that the US military plans to temporarily seize power in a Corona-pinch, and that the Justice Department seeks indefinite detention authority in this, or a similar, emergency. And why not? We’ve seen it before.

    The US warfare state has run amok since the end of the Second World War, and veritably gone “off-the-rails” since September 11, 2001. It is behaving as badly as ever in the wake of this Corona-outbreak. That much is undeniable. Still, reasons remain to not slip into apathy or despair. As the great Leonard Cohen once sang, “There is a crack, a crack in everything; That’s how the light gets in.” Staring straight into the ugly face of COVID-19, a growing number of antiwar scholars and activists are today widening those very fissures in the edifice of American militarism.

    Despite the impending darkness, there have been (exponentially) growing – domestic and international – calls for the US military to finally march out of Iraq. There’s even been unprecedented talk of the need to evacuate and close American bases in the Mideast writ large. The severity of the Corona-plague is such that it appears the military is even quietly “repositioning” (read: leaving) some of its smaller bases in Iraq, as part of an unprecedented DOD-wide response to the pandemic.

    Most vitally, the activist (and to some degree policymaker) appetite for a complete moratorium on worldwide US sanctions (which, until now, have rarely raised any meaningful public ire) is particularly encouraging. What’s remarkable, and potentially decisive, is that the rationalizations raised for a demilitarized foreign policy hold the weight of both prudence and morality.

    Traditionally, policy arguments centered solely on “sensible” strategy, or “emotional” ethics, respectively, rarely garner mass appeal. This reality reflects the nature of the human condition. Homo sapiens are a rather peculiar species, driven by neither reason nor passion, exclusively. Such is the duality of Man. Usually, the positions that ultimately carry the day – for good or ill – appeal to both the cerebral cortex (or “Mammal“) and limbic (or “Lizard”) portions of the collective brain. There are hopeful signs that such dual-rationales are available with respect to ending America’s deadly sanctions regime.

    In the midst of the current pandemic, twin-track arguments for relief range (quite effectively) from ethical clamors for mercy – consider it a form of Love in the Time of Cholera Corona – to tactical self interest. After all, mass outbreaks in one country inevitably affect public health in our own; as even the most stringent travel-bans and blockades inescapably leak like sieves in this increasingly interconnected, technologically-advanced, world. Straddling both lines of argument, are a respected group of economists – hardly known as a particularly emotive lot – who recently called for the lifting of all US sanctions worldwide. Such penalties on Iran, Cuba, Venezuela and others, they astutely asserted, have the effect of “feeding the coronavirus epidemic,” and that the prevailing “policy is unconscionable and flagrantly against international law.” Whether such arguments will ultimately prevail remains uncertain, but this is nevertheless a powerful, persuasive line of reasoning.

    This sort of uncomfortable self-awareness and conscience-consistency would demonstrate a level of national policy maturity that could serve as an example to the world from a country that (generally) has been historically hypocritical as a self-styled democratic “beacon,” and “indispensable,” shining “City on a Hill.” Words matter; so do their meanings. Never underestimate the potency of semantics in public policy.

    Consider one more, somewhat ideological, aperture for an antiwar positional explication. The increasingly self-evident necessity of interstate cooperation, for global responses to a global calamity, presents a unique opportunity for scholars, sympathizers, and street activists to forcefully shrug-off the pejorative poundage of the “isolationism” label – a convenient descriptive cudgel to dismiss all war critics – and avow their own internationalism, of sorts. An antiwar movement which necessarily spans the spectrum from the faintly socialist to vaguely libertarian, need not tip towards extreme, much-maligned (with some reason) positions of “globalism” to effectively counter the security-state establishments go-to accusational canard that such opposition is wholly “isolationist.” That would be a victory in itself.

    Whatever one thinks about the severity of this pandemic, its logical conclusion, or the evolving government (and global) response, these are unquestionably crucial times. Folks are really frightened and downright dying. Understandable, this, but all must remain critically cognizant that History shall not end, that the force of events will carry on. The Empire will act out, in these tumultuous times, like the petulant child it truly is.

    History is ceaselessly contingent; human beings are inherently imbued with agency; and nothing is inevitable. What is certain, is that the American Republic, and its people, are about to be tested on a grand, epochal scale.

    Let us hope, or pray, that they are not found wanting…

    *  *  *

    Danny Sjursen is a retired US Army officer.

    Principled alternative publications like Antiwar.com, are needed for now than ever. We the People, our readers, will necessarily win or lose the fight, but count on this publication to lend a pivotal assist in the unfolding struggle for peace and justice. Contribute now, and your donation will be matched dollar for dollar. Please do it today.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 03/26/2020 – 20:05

  • "I Would Rather Be Dead": Calls To Suicide Hotlines Spike Amid COVID-19 Pandemic
    “I Would Rather Be Dead”: Calls To Suicide Hotlines Spike Amid COVID-19 Pandemic

    Calls to the National Suicide Prevention Hotline have spiked 300% amid the coronavirus pandemic, according to KVLY, while the Sacramento Bee reports that other suicide prevention services  have similarly risen for the same reasons.

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    “It’s so scary, it’s almost like … I would rather be dead,” said suicidal writer Danielle Sinay, who lives in New York City. “I mean, I wouldn’t be, but sometimes I get so scared it feels like that.”

    President Donald Trump, who has been pressing to lift restrictions on most people as soon as possible, has warned of “suicides by the thousands” if people remain isolated, Forbes reported.

    More than 487,000 cases of the  COVID-19 virus have been confirmed worldwide with more than 22,000 deaths as of March 26, according to Johns Hopkins University. The United States has more than 69,000 confirmed cases with more than 1,000 deaths. –Sacramento Bee

    (That figure topped 523,000 infected and 23,639 deaths as of this writing just hours later, according to the same source).

    There are ramifications, sometimes fatal, with events like these that are not just related to getting infected or dying from infection or consequences of infection,” said Eric Caine, co-director of the Center for the Study of Prevention of Suicide at the University of Rochester Medical Center, in a statement to USA Today.

    “Fear and anxiety about a disease can be overwhelming and cause strong emotions in adults and children. Coping with stress will make you, the people you care about, and your community stronger,” said the CDC in a statement.

    Meanwhile, the national crisis text line, they handled 6,000 text conversations last week – approximately twice the normal volume according to spokeswoman Ashley Womble.

    In Portland, Oregon, suicide-related 911 calls rose 23 percent in the past 10 days, compared to the 10 days before the city declared an emergency, The Oregonian reported. All 911 calls in the city dropped 10 percent in the same period.

    Other suicide prevention efforts in Portland report rising calls from people who feel anxious, depressed or frightened, but not in calls from those feeling acutely suicidal, according to the publication. Officials fear that may change. –Sacramento Bee

    “If this nears a large disaster like Hurricane Katrina, there is a flood coming,” said Chris Bouneff, who heads up the Oregon chapter of the National Alliance on Mental Illness, according to The Oregonian.

    And at the largest suicide prevention hotline in Massachusetts, the Samaritans, they received 350 calls per day last week, up from 250 – 275 calls they normally receive according to the Boston Globe. Text messages in March are on pace to reach a record high of more than 1,000.

    Tips to fight anxiety (via the Sacramento Bee)

    “Isolation is a big trigger for a lot of people,” according to California social worker Norine VanderHooven. “People are becoming so anxious because they don’t know what to expect. Anxiety is fear of the unexpected or unknown.”

    Experts suggest that people keep to a routine schedule, exercise, eat a healthy diet, meditate and take walks to quell anxiety, The Boston Globe reported.

    Avoid information overload if it increases your fear and stave off feelings of isolation by staying in touch with friends or family by phone or online, according to the publication.

    “None of us are immune to this feeling of anxiety and stress,” said Leticia Sainz, interim deputy director of Multnomah County’s behavioral health division, The Oregonian reported. “I think we’re still really seeing the beginnings of the effects of this.” –Sacramento Bee

    If you or someone you know is struggling with mental health or suicidal thoughts, please call the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline at 800 273-8255 or text the Crisis Text Line at 741741.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 03/26/2020 – 19:45

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