Mar 16

Today’s News 16th March 2020

  • World's Most Powerful Supercomputer Tasked With Finding Covid-19 Cure
    World’s Most Powerful Supercomputer Tasked With Finding Covid-19 Cure

    Researchers at the Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory have used the world’s most powerful supercomputer to identify 77 drug compounds that could lead to scientific breakthroughs to combat Covid-19.  

    The supercomputer, dubbed Summit, has been tasked to run complex computation across existing databases of drug compounds to see which combinations could thwart Covid-19 from infecting cells. 

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    Summit has been able to “simulate 8,000 compounds in a matter of days to model which could impact that infection process by binding to the virus’s spike, and have identified 77 small-molecule compounds, such as medications and natural compounds, that have shown the potential to impair COVID-19′s ability to dock with and infect host cells,” read an IBM press release, whose technology is present in Summit.

    “Summit was needed to rapidly get the simulation results we needed. It took us a day or two whereas it would have taken months on a normal computer,” said Jeremy Smith, Governor’s Chair at the University of Tennessee, director of the UT/ORNL Center for Molecular Biophysics, and principal researcher in the study. 

    “Our results don’t mean that we have found a cure or treatment for COVID-19. We are very hopeful, though, that our computational findings will both inform future studies and provide a framework that experimentalists will use to further investigate these compounds. Only then will we know whether any of them exhibit the characteristics needed to mitigate this virus.”

    Smith’s team is expected to pass on the findings to others in the scientific community, who will then begin to experiment on Summit’s 77 compounds to see which one is the most effective against Covid-19. 

     “Our hope is that, by using a database of known compounds, we can greatly reduce the time it takes to make an effective drug publicly available, but there is no guarantee,” Smith said.

    Once scientists find the right compound, then human testing would likely be next. Trials could take upwards of a year to conduct, suggesting that a vaccine is likely in 2021. As for now, prepare for an exponential rise in virus cases and deaths in the US. 


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 03/16/2020 – 02:45

  • UK Missed Containment Window, Unprepared For Virus Crisis, Troops Could Be Deployed
    UK Missed Containment Window, Unprepared For Virus Crisis, Troops Could Be Deployed

    The UK has missed the critical containment window to implement social distancing policies that would flatten the curve and slowdown infections, suggesting the country could see an exponential rise in Covid-19 cases over the next month, sort of like what’s happening in Italy at the moment. 

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    The Guardian spoke with a senior consultant at a top hospital in the UK, who warned hospital beds are already 98% full, and the patients who need ICU-level treatment might not be able to receive it. 

    The senior consultant said hospitals across the UK don’t have enough protective gear like N-95 masks and goggles, and the entire National Health Service (NHS) healthcare system is understaffed to handle a virus outbreak. 

    If cases and deaths were to increase exponentially over the next 2-4 weeks, there wouldn’t be enough hospital beds and ventilators for the severely ill, which would imply the mortality rate would increase. 

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    The consultant said plans to increase ICU capacity are underway though trained medical staff would remain in a shortage.

    “I’m worried that the NHS is completely ill-equipped to handle Covid-19,” the person said, adding that, “when Boris Johnson talks about our wonderful NHS and how well-prepared it is, that’s bullshit. He either doesn’t have a clue or is trying to falsely reassure people. The NHS has been hit hard before, by underfunding, terrorist attacks and tough winters. But usually crises are stretched over a period of time. With coronavirus it will all come at once.” 

    The consultant suggested that the government missed the containment window: 

    “I’m amazed it has taken the NHS and the government so long to get ready to deal with a crisis. We need to free up doctors and NHS staff to prepare for what’s coming. We should be cancelling outpatient clinics, suspending waiting-time targets, like the four-hour A&E wait and the 18-week target for outpatient treatment, until this is all over – and be open with the public about why this is happening. Soon the NHS is going to be faced with a huge amount people with Covid-19.”

    With an influx of patients expected to overwhelm the UK hospital system in the weeks ahead, the consultant fears that “we are going to end up in the same situation as Iran and Italy, where health services have struggled to cope.”

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    If an Italy-style scenario were to happen, then the military would likely be deployed at hospitals, supermarkets, and on streets.

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    Defense sources told The Sun that troops would build tented field hospitals, deep-clean public buildings, and keep the order during a virus outbreak. 


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 03/16/2020 – 02:00

  • Chinese Tycoon Mysteriously Disappears After Criticizing Xi's Virus Response
    Chinese Tycoon Mysteriously Disappears After Criticizing Xi’s Virus Response

    A Chinese real estate tycoon has gone missing over the weekend after his latest commentary was highly critical of President Xi Jinping’s response to the Covid-19 outbreak that originated in Wuhan, China, in December.  

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    The New York Times reported on Saturday that friends of Ren Zhiqiang, known as “The Cannon,” went missing on early Saturday morning. 

    “We’re very worried about him,” said Wang Ying, a retired businessman, and friend of Ren’s. “I will continue to look for him.”

    Ren’s disappearance comes after his scathing blog post criticized Xi’s response to the virus crisis. He called Xi a power-hungry “clown” and said the ruling Communist Party’s censoring of speech made the crisis worst:

    This outbreak of the Wuhan pneumonia epidemic has verified the reality: when all media took on the “surname of the Party” the people “were abandoned” indeed [a reference to a forecast Ren made in his response to Xi’s declaration that the media should “bear the Party surname”]. Without a media representing the interests of the people by publishing the actual facts, the people’s lives are being ravaged by both the virus and the major illness of the system.

    I too am curiously and conscientiously studying [Xi’s teleconferenced February 23] speech, but what I saw in it was the complete opposite of the “importance” reported by all types of media and online. I saw not an emperor standing there exhibiting his “new clothes,” but a clown who stripped naked and insisted on continuing being emperor. Despite holding a series of loincloths up in an attempt to cover the reality of your nakedness, you don’t in the slightest hide your resolute ambition to be an emperor, or the determination to let anyone who won’t let you be destroyed.

    Ren, a communist party member, has been critical of Xi for years. In 2016, he denounced Xi and was then placed on a year’s probation. 

    The government has monitored Ren’s movements, and his social media accounts have been suspended. 

    It appears the party has moved swiftly to censor Ren, as family and friends have been searching for him over the weekend. 

    We noted earlier this year that the government censored the Chinese doctor who tried to raise the alarm about the novel coronavirus before it was even identified. Li Wenliang warned people in December about the virus and has since died of an infection. 

    China is known for its strict censorship of non-government approved narratives. If someone criticizes the government about their virus response, it appears the party has no other choice than to silence those individuals. 

    It’s much of the same in the US, where companies like Facebook, Twitter, Google, and YouTube are censoring coronavirus information that isn’t government-approved. 


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 03/16/2020 – 01:00

  • Panic Will End But Tyranny Will Not
    Panic Will End But Tyranny Will Not

    Authored by Gary Barnett via LewRockwell.com,

    “Our contemporaries are constantly excited by two conflicting passions; they want to be led, and they wish to remain free: as they cannot destroy either one or the other of these contrary propensities, they strive to satisfy them both at once. They devise a sole, tutelary, and all-powerful form of government, but elected by the people. They combine the principle of centralization and that of popular sovereignty; this gives them a respite: they console themselves for being in tutelage by the reflection that they have chosen their own guardians. Every man allows himself to be put in leading-strings, because he sees that it is not a person or a class of persons, but the people at large that holds the end of his chain.

    By this system the people shake off their state of dependence just long enough to select their master, and then relapse into it again. A great many persons at the present day are quite contented with this sort of compromise between administrative despotism and the sovereignty of the people; and they think they have done enough for the protection of individual freedom when they have surrendered it to the power of the nation at large. This does not satisfy me: the nature of him I am to obey signifies less to me than the fact of extorted obedience.”

      ~ Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America

    Any real state of fear will bring panic, and once panic is the prevailing attitude of society at large, the herd seeks safety at all cost. Seeking safety under these circumstances allows for tyranny by the ruling class, and when the restrictive consequences of that tyranny are in place, escape from mass servitude is almost impossible to achieve. It must be understood that decisions made under stress due to fear end with a loss of freedom, and when freedom is compromised, what is left is slavery.

    We have been told that a pandemic is upon us, and that we must sacrifice for the good of all, and for the sake of the nation. If the people at large accept this premise, individual sovereignty is not only compromised, but also permanently damaged. When the masses as a group seek shelter from harm, and agree to temporarily relinquish some or all of their freedoms, oppression is the result. That is why panic is so perilous, and why hasty decisions should never be made during a real or supposed crisis.

    As I write this, it is obvious that none of these suggestions have been followed, and the herd has acquiesced to most all commands from on high in order to gain what will most likely turn out to be false hope at the expense of accepted domination. At this point, it is not too late to reverse part of the damage, but any continuation of mass subservience will only end in oppressive misery.

    There is no certainty that this new coronavirus called COVID-19 is any more dangerous than any other virus in the past, but the ruling class and their minions in the mainstream media and beyond, are screaming at the top of their lungs that this is the scourge of mankind, and that tens of millions of Americans will become infected, and that millions might die.

    This is being promulgated by government at every level, by so-called national and world health organizations, and by a complicit media that seemingly does as it is told by those holding political power. This is being done regardless of the fact that no one knows much about this so-called virus, knows little or nothing about its true origin, and knows little about its mutations. Also, politicians, claimed authorities, and alleged experts are in the dark as to how particular cultures have been more susceptible than others, and are unwilling to discuss that the probable cause of this is due to a man-made strain created in a bio-weapons lab, even though a preponderance of evidence points in that direction. All possibilities should be discussed.

    Current headlines today:

    Trump To Declare National Emergency

    Complete shutdown On Table

    This government is now taking total control over our lives, and will take full advantage of this situation to bring draconian anti-liberty measures to all that live in this country.  This is an atrocity, and one that will change the face of this nation. Current risk includes the implementing of medical martial law as well as the possibility of total martial law with any major resistance from those not willing to accept being in a captured society. I outlined the measures that have been implemented by at least 40 states to affect medical martial law recently in this article. The act that has been adopted is the Model State Emergency Health Powers Act (MSEHPA), and the included language is dictatorial in nature.

    Besides the sheer tyranny of these measures being planned and implemented as I write this, the certain economic devastation to come is unimaginable. No one will be spared economic harm, and many will be completely destroyed by the government’s response to this manufactured panic. In addition, when the virus scare is over, and it will be, the economic destruction will remain, and it could take years for any recovery to take place.

    Has all this panic been planned? The impending economic collapse caused by the Federal Reserve and its massive money printing is most likely going to be falsely blamed on the coronavirus, so what is the connection? Was this virus created for the purpose of covering up responsibility for an economic meltdown? Was it created to harm the economy of China and Iran? If not, is it being purposely used for these purposes? Is population control due to all these factors mentioned sought by the ruling class, and is this virus the impetus for gaining that control?

    What is next on the agenda due to this panic? Will there be total lockdowns? Will there be universal travel restrictions, even at the local level? Will there be forced vaccinations? Will there be mandatory testing and inspections? Will there be food shortages? Will this lead to concentration camps for dissenters? Will the National Guard and military be patrolling the streets of your town?

    There are many unanswered questions, and much uncertainty about this virus, so what is the real danger?

    The real danger to America is the U.S. government and its dictatorial response to what appears to be an orchestrated hysteria. The solutions offered by Trump and this government, regardless of who is pulling the strings of these puppets, are far more dangerous than any manufactured pandemic. Fear and panic allow for control, and those in power understand this truth, and use it to their advantage. Panic is worthless, and can only lead to the acceptance of authoritative rule. This is the real risk; this is the real danger. If the people allow a takeover of their lives due to this panic, they will not only have lost their liberty and all they own, they will have also lost their sanity.


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 03/16/2020 – 00:00

  • Illinois Mayor Grants Herself Power To Ban Gun Sales And Alcohol During Coronavirus Epidemic
    Illinois Mayor Grants Herself Power To Ban Gun Sales And Alcohol During Coronavirus Epidemic

    Champaign, Illinois mayor Deborah Frank Feinen signed an executive order on Thursday declaring a state of emergency to address the coronavirus.

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    Among the sweeping powers she gained after signing the executive order was the ability to ban the sale of guns, ammunition, alcohol and gasoline – as well as the power to cut off access to individuals’ gas, water or electricity, according to the Washington Examiner.

    The city can also “take possession of private property” and order the temporary closing of all liquor stores and bars.

    “The executive order allows the city to be flexible to properly respond to the emergency needs of our community. None of the options will necessarily be implemented but are available in order to protect the welfare and safety of our community if needed,” city manager Jeff Hamilton told WAND.

    On Friday, the Champaign City Council met to discuss concerns over the sweeping powers granted to Feinen, with Deputy Mayor Tom Bruno noting that each ordinance considered under the executive order would be ratified by the council. Additionally, the city said Feinen would only take steps “necessary to ensure the health, safety, and welfare” of the city.

    “The City will keep the public’s best interest in mind as we continue to work alongside public health officials and countywide leaders,” reads the council’s statement. “We understand this is a challenging time but working collaboratively as a community is the best approach to combating this virus.”

    Illinois has 64 confirmed cases of coronavirus as of this writing.

    On Monday, Gov. J.B. Pritzker announced a statewide disaster proclamation to address the situation.

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    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 03/15/2020 – 23:35

  • Covid-19 & The Sun: A Lesson From The 1918 Influenza Pandemic
    Covid-19 & The Sun: A Lesson From The 1918 Influenza Pandemic

    Authored by Richard Hobday via Medium.com,

    Fresh air, sunlight and improvised face masks seemed to work a century ago; and they might help us now.

    When new, virulent diseases emerge, such SARS and Covid-19, the race begins to find new vaccines and treatments for those affected. As the current crisis unfolds, governments are enforcing quarantine and isolation, and public gatherings are being discouraged. Health officials took the same approach 100 years ago, when influenza was spreading around the world. The results were mixed. But records from the 1918 pandemic suggest one technique for dealing with influenza — little-known today — was effective. Some hard-won experience from the greatest pandemic in recorded history could help us in the weeks and months ahead.

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    Influenza patients getting sunlight at the Camp Brooks emergency open-air hospital in Boston. Medical staff were not supposed to remove their masks. (National Archives)

    Put simply, medics found that severely ill flu patients nursed outdoors recovered better than those treated indoors. A combination of fresh air and sunlight seems to have prevented deaths among patients; and infections among medical staff. There is scientific support for this. Research shows that outdoor air is a natural disinfectant. Fresh air can kill the flu virus and other harmful germs. Equally, sunlight is germicidal and there is now evidence it can kill the flu virus.

    `Open-Air’ Treatment in 1918

    During the great pandemic, two of the worst places to be were military barracks and troop-ships. Overcrowding and bad ventilation put soldiers and sailors at high risk of catching influenza and the other infections that often followed it. As with the current Covid-19 outbreak, most of the victims of so-called `Spanish flu’ did not die from influenza: they died of pneumonia and other complications.

    When the influenza pandemic reached the East coast of the United States in 1918, the city of Boston was particularly badly hit. So the State Guard set up an emergency hospital. They took in the worst cases among sailors on ships in Boston harbour. The hospital’s medical officer had noticed the most seriously ill sailors had been in badly-ventilated spaces. So he gave them as much fresh air as possible by putting them in tents. And in good weather they were taken out of their tents and put in the sun. At this time, it was common practice to put sick soldiers outdoors. Open-air therapy, as it was known, was widely used on casualties from the Western Front. And it became the treatment of choice for another common and often deadly respiratory infection of the time; tuberculosis. Patients were put outside in their beds to breathe fresh outdoor air. Or they were nursed in cross-ventilated wards with the windows open day and night. The open-air regimen remained popular until antibiotics replaced it in the 1950s.

    Doctors who had first-hand experience of open-air therapy at the hospital in Boston were convinced the regimen was effective. It was adopted elsewhere. If one report is correct, it reduced deaths among hospital patients from 40 per cent to about 13 per cent. According to the Surgeon General of the Massachusetts State Guard:

    `The efficacy of open air treatment has been absolutely proven, and one has only to try it to discover its value.’

    Fresh Air is a Disinfectant

    Patients treated outdoors were less likely to be exposed to the infectious germs that are often present in conventional hospital wards. They were breathing clean air in what must have been a largely sterile environment. We know this because, in the 1960s, Ministry of Defence scientists proved that fresh air is a natural disinfectant. Something in it, which they called the Open Air Factor, is far more harmful to airborne bacteria — and the influenza virus — than indoor air. They couldn’t identify exactly what the Open Air Factor is. But they found it was effective both at night and during the daytime.

    Their research also revealed that the Open Air Factor’s disinfecting powers can be preserved in enclosures — if ventilation rates are kept high enough. Significantly, the rates they identified are the same ones that cross-ventilated hospital wards, with high ceilings and big windows, were designed for. But by the time the scientists made their discoveries, antibiotic therapy had replaced open-air treatment. Since then the germicidal effects of fresh air have not featured in infection control, or hospital design. Yet harmful bacteria have become increasingly resistant to antibiotics.

    Sunlight and Influenza Infection

    Putting infected patients out in the sun may have helped because it inactivates the influenza virus. It also kills bacteria that cause lung and other infections in hospitals. During the First World War, military surgeons routinely used sunlight to heal infected wounds. They knew it was a disinfectant. What they didn’t know is that one advantage of placing patients outside in the sun is they can synthesise vitamin D in their skin if sunlight is strong enough. This was not discovered until the 1920s. Low vitamin D levels are now linked to respiratory infections and may increase susceptibility to influenza. Also, our body’s biological rhythms appear to influence how we resist infections. New research suggests they can alter our inflammatory response to the flu virus. As with vitamin D, at the time of the 1918 pandemic, the important part played by sunlight in synchronizing these rhythms was not known.

    Face Masks Coronavirus and Flu

    Surgical masks are currently in short supply in China and elsewhere. They were worn 100 years ago, during the great pandemic, to try and stop the influenza virus spreading. While surgical masks may offer some protection from infection they do not seal around the face. So they don’t filter out small airborne particles. In 1918, anyone at the emergency hospital in Boston who had contact with patients had to wear an improvised face mask. This comprised five layers of gauze fitted to a wire frame which covered the nose and mouth. The frame was shaped to fit the face of the wearer and prevent the gauze filter touching the mouth and nostrils. The masks were replaced every two hours; properly sterilized and with fresh gauze put on. They were a forerunner of the N95 respirators in use in hospitals today to protect medical staff against airborne infection.

    Temporary Hospitals

    Staff at the hospital kept up high standards of personal and environmental hygiene. No doubt this played a big part in the relatively low rates of infection and deaths reported there. The speed with which their hospital and other temporary open-air facilities were erected to cope with the surge in pneumonia patients was another factor. Today, many countries are not prepared for a severe influenza pandemic. Their health services will be overwhelmed if there is one. Vaccines and antiviral drugs might help. Antibiotics may be effective for pneumonia and other complications. But much of the world’s population will not have access to them. If another 1918 comes, or the Covid-19 crisis gets worse, history suggests it might be prudent to have tents and pre-fabricated wards ready to deal with large numbers of seriously ill cases. Plenty of fresh air and a little sunlight might help too.


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 03/15/2020 – 23:10

  • NIRP Arrives: Treasuries Trade With Negative Yield
    NIRP Arrives: Treasuries Trade With Negative Yield

    With the Fed’s cutting rates three days ahead of the regular Wednesday FOMC announcement by 100bps to 0%-25bps, while also announcing a fresh $700BN QE as well as enhanced FX swaps, panic is in the air as reflected in the S&P futures which have been locked limit down since the open, and with equity traders frozen out and unable to do anything all the attention has shifted to rates where all hell is breaking loose.

    As BMO’s Ian Lyngen wrote in his Fed post-mortem “it is not inconceivable that we see negative Treasury yields in the front end when Asia comes back on line”, and that’s precisely what has happened, when yields on several Treasury bonds expiring in the next three months are getting quoted at slightly negative levels during Asia hours following the Fed’s 100bps rate cut.

    One such example is the US govt bond maturing April 23, or in five weeks, which briefly dipped below zero, touching -0.01% after trading at 1.50% just two weeks ago.

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    And while so far NIRP is confined to short-dated maturities, expect to see negative rates migrating further right on the yield curve with every passing day, and as IG Markets’ analyst Kyle Rodda notes “everywhere effectively could see their yields under pressure and turn negative – you’ve got the Fed coming in cutting rates to near zero, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand slashing to ensure liquidity in markets.”

    As Rodda correctly notes, “it’s all about keeping financial conditions and liquidity as supported as they can, and investors might take this as another reason to just pile into safety.”

    “It’s a sign the Fed and other central banks are doing whatever it takes to keep liquidity ticking, especially when we saw Treasuries trading almost like equities last week when all people wanted to do was hoard cash.”

    Then there is the question of the Fed’s ad hoc QE announcement which, as Powell’s press conference made clear, is being made up as we go along, with the Fed simply stating that “to support the smooth functioning of markets for Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities that are central to the flow of credit to households and businesses, over coming months the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $500 billion and its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $200 billion. The Committee will also reinvest all principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities.”

    Purchases will begin Monday on the below schedule, similar to Friday’s QE shocker:

    • 10:15 – 10:30 am: Treasury Coupons 0 to 2.25 year sector, for around $10 billion
    • 11:00 – 11:15 am: Treasury Coupons 2.25 to 4.5 year sector, for around $8 billion
    • 11:45 am – 12:00 pm: Treasury Coupons 4.5 to 7 year sector, for around $9 billion
    • 12:30 – 12:45 pm: Treasury Coupons 7 to 20 year sector, for around $5 billion
    • 1:15 – 1:30 pm: Treasury Coupons 20 to 30 year sector, for around $5 billion
    • 2:00 – 2:15 pm: TIPS 7.5 to 30 year sector, for around $3 billion

    It is this likelihood that the Fed will monetize anything and everything at far higher prices than market, coupled with a non-trivial probability that the Fed’s next move will, in fact, be to cut below zero, that will keep yields depressed, pushing them ever lower, especially if equities are locked out, until most of the curve eventually drops below zero.


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 03/15/2020 – 22:45

  • February China Economic Data Collapses Massively More Than Expected
    February China Economic Data Collapses Massively More Than Expected

    While it may not be a surprise to too many people in the real world that Chinese macro-economic data for February was a disaster, it appears it was a massive shock to analysts and economists who forecast this data.

    • Chinese Retail Sales crashed 20.5% YTD YoY – the first annual drop on record and four times worse than the -4.0% expectation

    • Chinese Industrial Production collapsed 13.5% YTD YOY – the first annual drop on record and more than four times worse than the -3.0% expectation

    • Fixed Asset Investment plunged 24.5% YTD YoY – the first annual drop and more than twelve times worse than the expected 2.% contraction.

    And to go with those stunning numbers, Property Investment puked 16.3% YTD YoY and the Surveyed Jobless Rate exploded to a record 6.2%.

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    The retail collapse was across the board – restaurants and catering down 43.1%, clothing down 30.9%, jewelry down 41.1% are some of the bigger drops.

     

    But… just wait for the recovery! Oh wait, you mean this recovery?

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    As HSBC’s Julien Zhu told Bloomberg Television, this is “unprecedented” adding that the recovery is pretty cautious so far, warning “it will be a Herculean task to completely reverse everything this month.”

    Of course, with US futures already limit-down, we can’t really gauge any reaction yet though yuan is modestly weaker on the data.


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 03/15/2020 – 22:21

  • Visualizing The History Of Pandemics… By Death Toll
    Visualizing The History Of Pandemics… By Death Toll

    Pan·dem·ic /panˈdemik/ (of a disease) prevalent over a whole country or the world.

    As humans have spread across the world, so have infectious diseases. In fact, as Visual Cpitalist’s Nicholas LePan notes, even in this modern era, outbreaks are nearly constant, though not every outbreak reaches pandemic level as the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) has.

    Today’s visualization outlines some of history’s most deadly pandemics, from the Antonine Plague to the current COVID-19 event.

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    A Timeline of Historical Pandemics

    Disease and illnesses have plagued humanity since the earliest days, our mortal flaw. However, it was not until the marked shift to agrarian communities that the scale and spread of these diseases increased dramatically.

    Widespread trade created new opportunities for human and animal interactions that sped up such epidemics. Malaria, tuberculosis, leprosy, influenza, smallpox, and others first appeared during these early years.

    The more civilized humans became – with larger cities, more exotic trade routes, and increased contact with different populations of people, animals, and ecosystems – the more likely pandemics would occur.

    Here are some of the major pandemics that have occurred over time:

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    Note: Many of the death toll numbers listed above are best estimates based on available research. Some, such as the Plague of Justinian, are subject to debate based on new evidence.

    Despite the persistence of disease and pandemics throughout history, there’s one consistent trend over time – a gradual reduction in the death rate. Healthcare improvements and understanding the factors that incubate pandemics have been powerful tools in mitigating their impact.

    Wrath of the Gods

    In many ancient societies, people believed that spirits and gods inflicted disease and destruction upon those that deserved their wrath. This unscientific perception often led to disastrous responses that resulted in the deaths of thousands, if not millions.

    In the case of Justinian’s plague, the Byzantine historian Procopius of Caesarea traced the origins of the plague (the Yersinia pestis bacteria) to China and northeast India, via land and sea trade routes to Egypt where it entered the Byzantine Empire through Mediterranean ports.

    Despite his apparent knowledge of the role geography and trade played in this spread, Procopius laid blame for the outbreak on the Emperor Justinian, declaring him to be either a devil, or invoking God’s punishment for his evil ways. Some historians found that this event could have dashed Emperor Justinian’s efforts to reunite the Western and Eastern remnants of the Roman Empire, and marked the beginning of the Dark Ages.

    Luckily, humanity’s understanding of the causes of disease has improved, and this is resulting in a drastic improvement in the response to modern pandemics, albeit slow and incomplete.

    Importing Disease

    The practice of quarantine began during the 14th century, in an effort to protect coastal cities from plague epidemics. Cautious port authorities required ships arriving in Venice from infected ports to sit at anchor for 40 days before landing — the origin of the word quarantine from the Italian “quaranta giorni”, or 40 days.

    One of the first instances of relying on geography and statistical analysis was in mid-19th century London, during a cholera outbreak. In 1854, Dr. John Snow came to the conclusion that cholera was spreading via tainted water and decided to display neighborhood mortality data directly on a map. This method revealed a cluster of cases around a specific pump from which people were drawing their water from.

    While the interactions created through trade and urban life play a pivotal role, it is also the virulent nature of particular diseases that indicate the trajectory of a pandemic.

    Tracking Infectiousness

    Scientists use a basic measure to track the infectiousness of a disease called the reproduction number — also known as R0 or “R naught.” This number tells us how many susceptible people, on average, each sick person will in turn infect.

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    Measles tops the list, being the most contagious with a R0 range of 12-18. This means a single person can infect, on average, 12 to 18 people in an unvaccinated population.

    While measles may be the most virulent, vaccination efforts and herd immunity can curb its spread. The more people are immune to a disease, the less likely it is to proliferate, making vaccinations critical to prevent the resurgence of known and treatable diseases.

    It’s hard to calculate and forecast the true impact of COVID-19, as the outbreak is still ongoing and researchers are still learning about this new form of coronavirus.

    Urbanization and the Spread of Disease

    We arrive at where we began, with rising global connections and interactions as a driving force behind pandemics. From small hunting and gathering tribes to the metropolis, humanity’s reliance on one another has also sparked opportunities for disease to spread.

    Urbanization in the developing world is bringing more and more rural residents into denser neighborhoods, while population increases are putting greater pressure on the environment. At the same time, passenger air traffic nearly doubled in the past decade. These macro trends are having a profound impact on the spread of infectious disease.

    As organizations and governments around the world ask for citizens to practice social distancing to help reduce the rate of infection, the digital world is allowing people to maintain connections and commerce like never before.

    Editor’s Note: The COVID-19 pandemic is in its early stages and it is obviously impossible to predict its future impact. This post and infographic are meant to provide historical context, and we will continue to update it as time goes on to maintain its accuracy.


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 03/15/2020 – 22:15

  • 5 Times China Changed The Narrative, Tried To Blame The US For Covid-19
    5 Times China Changed The Narrative, Tried To Blame The US For Covid-19

    Authored by Jennie Taer via SaraACarter.com,

    The source of the Covid-19 global pandemic being Wuhan, China has become a problem for the Chinese Communist Party, who’s now trying to do everything they can to shift the blame.

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    With the level of control the Party has over its people, there’s no doubt Chinese citizens are falling prey to conspiracy theories promoting the lie that the U.S. is covering up their essential role in the pandemic.

    Here are five examples of that:

    1. Chinese official Lijian Zhao condemns U.S. officials 

    Lijian, Zhao, Foreign Ministry Spokesman & Deputy Director General of China’s Information Department, has criticized U.S. officials for making, what he says, are false accusations about the genesis of the virus.

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    When translated to English, Zhao’s recent Tweet reads,

    “Q: Could it be that the US government’s position that the US military brought the virus to Wuhan?

    A: There have been some recent discussions about the source of the new coronavirus.”

    He continued, “We are firmly opposed to the various false and irresponsible remarks made by some senior US government officials and members of Congress. The international community, including the United States, has different views on the source of the virus. China always believes that this is a scientific issue and requires scientific and professional advice.”

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    2. China Publishes multilingual book, A Battle Against Epidemic

    Publisher “China Book International” released a book praising the Chinese government under President Xi Jinping for it’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak.

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    “The book is compiled to show the strength of the Communist Party of China (CPC) leadership and China’s socialist system, as well as China’s efforts in strengthening cooperation with the international community to jointly safeguard global and regional public health security,” a press release stated.

    The book is also available in several languages including English, French, Spanish, Russian and Arabic. It’s currently available on Amazon, a global retailer.

    3. U.S. Blame on China is ‘immoral and irresponsible’

    A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang told CCTV Thursday that the U.S blame for the pandemic is ‘immoral and irresponsible.’

    “We urge the U.S. official to respect facts and the common understanding of the international community,” Geng told a press briefing.

    “Every minute wasted on smearing and complaining would be better spent on enhancing domestic response and international cooperation.”

    4. China’s State-run media calls for U.S. apology

    China’s state-run media outlet, Xinhua is one of the government’s strongest allies in pushing propaganda for public consumption. A recent piece published by the site calls on the U.S. to apologize to China.

    “We should say righteously that the U.S. owes China an apology, the world owes China a thank you,” an editorial in the outlet read.

    5. China’s manipulation of U.S. media

    On Twitter, a user reported seeing an altered CNN chyron, they say was changed by Chinese officials, that read “CDC confirms first Coronavirus case of ‘unknown’ origin in U.S.”

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    The people of China on the receiving end of this information are spreading it like wildfire in WeChat groups. Further, they are warning others to a conspiracy that the U.S. government is orchestrating a coverup of a virus that they say, started in the U.S.


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 03/15/2020 – 21:50

  • BOJ Announces It Will Bring Thursday's Policy Meeting To Noon Monday: Nikkei Jumps, Yen Drops
    BOJ Announces It Will Bring Thursday’s Policy Meeting To Noon Monday: Nikkei Jumps, Yen Drops

    With the Fed telegraphing an all out capital markets panic as the Fed could not wait a mere three days until the scheduled FOMC meeting to rush out the biggest monetary bazooka in history which proved to not be enough, the rest of the developed world’s central banks had no choice but to fall in line – after all if, one panics, all must panic. And sure enough, early on Sunday, the Bank of Japan announced it will hold an emergency meeting at noon local time, raising investor sentiment about global policy coordination amid the spread of the new coronavirus, and helping spike the Nikkei 225 up 1.6% on Monday morning, although the index has since given up much of the gains.

    The Bank of Japan announced on Monday morning that like the Fed, it too will move its policy meeting up to Monday afternoon rather than on Thursday as initially planned, as part of concerted efforts worldwide to shore up the global economy.

    Tokyo’s Nikkei Stock Average jumped nearly 300 points to 17,726, its first rise in four days after a turbulent week that sent global stock markets crashing over fears of a global economic slowdown, as the coronavirus pandemic hits global supply chains while cases continue to surge in Europe and the U.S. However it then quickly pared all gains before dipping modestly in the green.

    After the BOJ’s announcement, the yen declined 0.92 yen to 106.92 after surging as highas 105.80 per U.S. dollar as investors pinned hopes on monetary easing, driving demand for the dollar. However, in light of the $12 trillion dollar global margin call, we expect to see the yen, a global risk-off proxy, surge much, much higher before the day is done.

    While it is unclear just what additional credible steps the BOJ can offer, Takahide Kiuchi, a former BOJ policy board member writes that Kuroda will likely raise its annual purchase of ETFs funds to 9 trln yen from the current 6 trln yen, which however means that the central bank will simply end up nationalizing the market much faster than previously scheduled. The central bank could also theoretically lower its short-term interest rate target to minus 0.2% from minus 0.1% according to Kiuchi, now executive economist at Nomura Research Institute, although with Japan’s banks already screaming at the torture of years of NIRP, all this action will do is bring forward the demise of Japan’s banking sector.

    Which is precisely why Japan’s Kuroda is now completely trapped.

     

     

     


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 03/15/2020 – 21:34

  • Half Of Young American Democrats Believe Billionaires Do More Harm Than Good
    Half Of Young American Democrats Believe Billionaires Do More Harm Than Good

    With income inequality the political hot potato du-jour and wealth concentration at its most extreme since the roaring twenties, is it any wonder that even Americans’ view of what used to be called ‘success’ is now tainted with the ugly taste of partisan ‘not-fair’-ism.

    Income inequality is roaring…

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    Wealth concentration is extreme to say the least…

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    But still, according to Pew Research’s latest survey, when asked about the impact of billionaires on the country, nearly four-in-ten adults under age 30 (39%) say the fact that some have fortunes of a billion dollars or more is a bad thing…

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    …with 50% of young Democrats.

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    “The recent reigning conventional wisdom over the last several decades of what I call the ‘Age of Capital’ is that [billionaires] are ‘up there’ because they are smarter than us,” said Anand Giridharadas, author of “Winners Take All: The Elite Charade of Changing the World.”

    But the Pew data, he says, suggest that young Americans are concluding that billionaires have amassed their wealth “through their rigging of the tax code, through legal political bribery, through their tax avoidance in shelters like the Cayman Islands, and through lobbying for public policy that benefits them privately.“

    “Bernie Sanders taught a lot of people [about wealth inequality], including people who did not vote for him,” Giridharadas said.

    “The billionaire class is ‘up there’ because they are standing on our backs pinning us down.”

    The good news – for the rest of America’s “capitalists” – is that a majority (58%) say the impact of billionaires on America is neither bad nor good.

    Finally, one quick question – where were all these under-30s when Bernie needed them the most in the Primaries? Was it all just virtue-signaling pro-socialist bullshit after all?


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 03/15/2020 – 21:25

  • Not The Onion: ISIS Bans Followers From Jihad In "Plague" Hit Europe
    Not The Onion: ISIS Bans Followers From Jihad In “Plague” Hit Europe

    Via AlmasdarNews.com,

    The Islamic State (ISIS/ISIL/IS/Daesh) has issued a travel warning to its fighters this past week, urging them to avoid countries that have coronavirus outbreaks.

    According to scholar Aymenn Al-Tamimi, the Islamic State’s Al-Naba newsletter published a list of directives on how to handle this latest epidemic.

    The terrorist group has advised supporters to stay away from “the land of the epidemic”, and instead has offered tips for them to follow like washing their hands frequently and “cover the mouth when yawning and sneezing”.

    In the group’s latest al-Naba newsletter, instead of urging members to attack European cities, ISIS advises the healthy to not enter coronavirus-stricken areas in case they become infected, and “the afflicted should not exit from it”…

    The newsletter refers to a “plague” described as a “torment sent by God on whomsoever He wills”. — Yahoo News

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    The newsletter included various Hadiths on how to deal with illness: “On the authority of Abu Huraira… the messenger said: “And flee from the one afflicted with leprosy as you flee from the lion.”

    Some of the Hadiths mentioned ways to deal with the illness like placing your hand on your mouth when sneezing: “On the authority of Abu Huraira… he said: the Messenger of God would place his hand or clothing on his mouth when he sneezed, and in this way reduced or diminished his voice.”

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    Furthermore, Al-Arabiya reported that ISIS called on its fighters to avoid these countries where the coronavirus has broken out: “healthy people should refrain from entering virus-hit states, and infected people should not exit them.”

    While ISIS does not control large areas in Iraq, Syria, and Libya, they do maintain several sleeper cells in these countries that they occasionally activate to carry out sporadic attacks throughout these nations.


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 03/15/2020 – 21:00

  • Global GDP Growth Estimates Are Plummeting
    Global GDP Growth Estimates Are Plummeting

    Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

    In February, the general consensus between large investment banks and supranational entities was that there would be a one-time hit on GDP in the first quarter from the coronavirus impact, followed by a stronger, V-shaped recovery. IMF expected a modest correction of global GDP of 0.1%, and the largest cut on estimates for 2020 growth was 0.4%.

    Those days are gone.

    The latest round of global growth revisions includes a slash of growth estimates for the first and second quarters and a very modest recovery in the third and fourth.

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    Average GDP estimates are now down 0.7%, and JP Morgan expects the eurozone to enter into a deep recession in the next two quarters (-1.8% and -3.3% in the first and second quarters) followed by a very poor recovery that would still leave the full-year 2020 estimate in contraction. The investment bank also assumes a slump in the United States of 2% and 3% respectively, but a full-year modest growth. Capital Economics estimates a hit on the U.S. economy for the full-year that would cut 0.8% off previous estimates, with the U.S. still growing, but a larger impact on the eurozone, with full-year 2020 growth at -1.2%, led by a -2% in Italy. This, unfortunately, looks like just the beginning of a downgrade cycle that adds to an already slowing economy in 2019.

    The decision to shut down air travel and close all non-essential businesses is now a reality in major global economies. The United States has banned all European flights at the same time as Italy enters into a complete lockdown, Spain declares state of emergency and France closes all non-essential activity. These decisions are key to contain the spread of the virus and try to prevent the collapse of healthcare systems, and our thoughts are with all of those infected and the victims. Shutting down travel and businesses generates a negative ripple effect on the economy. It is an important measure to avoid rapid spread and there will be more cancellations of events and activity.

    By now, we can at least get a clearer picture of the severity of the pandemic and in this blog we discuss economic consequences, so I believe it is important to remind of a few important factors:

    1. We cannot assume that the above-mentioned estimates are too pessimistic. If we have learned anything from the history of global growth estimates is that most of us tend to be more optimistic than realistic even in crisis periods. Most analysts did not see a crisis in 2008 and, even more importantly, a majority still did not see it in 2009, when it was evident. It is true that 80% of estimates at the beginning of any given year have to be revised, but not because they are too pessimistic, rather the opposite.

    2. Calls for large fiscal packages to offset the pandemic may be useless Allen-Reynolds at Capital Economics warned that “even if governments agreed on a larger tax and spending package, the economic impact would be much smaller than it would have been in the past, particularly if the fiscal stimulus was concentrated in Germany”, because output gaps are almost inexistent. This is not a demand problem, it is a supply shock, and you don’t address supply shocks with bricks, mortar and deficit spending.

    3. A third-quarter rapid recovery is now virtually impossible. The shutdown of developed economies is now granted and will likely take us more than a couple of weeks. The shutdown of emerging economies is likely to start in May, and impact 2020 and 2021 estimates. Every analysis we have seen so far only factors a 2020 recession, not a crisis and even less a 2021 large hit to the economy, but the financial implications in an already over-leveraged world add a strong of credit events to an economic shutdown.

    4. The latest wave of downgrades already assumes a large-scale stimulus, rate cuts, and quantitative easing. The diminishing returns of monetary easing were already evident in 2018 and especially in 2019, with global manufacturing PMIs in contraction and growth estimates that came down significantly throughout the year. Average growth downward revisions by country averaged 20% between January and December in the middle of a massive coordinated central bank injection operation that injected up to 170 billion USD a month in the economy (considering PBOC, BOJ, ECB, and Fed) and saw widespread rate cuts.

    5. The economic implications of a pandemic are not solved with massive spending increases. Governments will implement large demand-side policies that are the wrong answer to a shutdown of the economy. Most businesses will suffer from the collapse in sales and subsequent working capital build and none of that will be solved with deficit spending. You cannot mitigate a supply shock with demand policies, which increase debt and overcapacity in the already indebted and bloated sectors and do not help the sectors that suffer an abrupt collapse in activity.

    6. A forced temporary shutdown must also include a shutdown of the tax collection system. Governments already finance themselves at negative rates. They must eliminate (not defer) tax payments for companies in the period of crisis to avoid a massive unemployment increase and a domino of bankruptcies, and facilitate working capital lines at zero rates to allow businesses and self-employed workers to navigate a shutdown. Governments that make the mistake of maintaining the current tax structure or just prolong the payment period for six months will see the massive negative consequences of a shutdown in the next nine months.

    If, as expected, the shutdown is extended to more countries every week, the negative effects on the economy will be longer and exponential, and the mirage of a third-quarter recovery even more difficult.

    It is very likely that the shutdown of the major developed economies will be followed by a shutdown of emerging markets, creating a supply shock as we have not seen in decades. Taking massive inflationary and demand-driven measures in a supply shock is not only a mistake, it is the recipe for stagflation and guarantee of a multi-year negative impact generated by rising debt, weakening productivity, rising inflation in non-replicable goods while deflation creeps in official headlines, and economic stagnation.


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 03/15/2020 – 20:35

  • 2nd Congressional Staffer Tests Positive; More Capitol Hill Offices Work Remotely
    2nd Congressional Staffer Tests Positive; More Capitol Hill Offices Work Remotely

    Sunday evening The Hill reports that a second Congressional aide has tested positive for Covid-19. 

    “A staff member in Rep. David Schweikert’s (R-Ariz.) D.C. office has tested positive for COVID-19, the congressman said Sunday,” according to the report.

    The individual is resting “comfortably at home and following guidance from local health officials,” Schweikert said in a statement. 

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    The Capitol visitor’s center stands empty. Image source: Reuters.

    This follows the first known instance of a congressional aide getting the virus after on Thursday Washington state Democratic Senator Maria Cantwell announced the immediate closure of her office due to a confirmed case on her staff.

    The Capitol building also closed to all external visitors and the public at that time, amid more and more Congress members announcing they would be working from home.

    As Vox describes: 

    Capitol hallways, usually bustling with visitors at this time of year, are mostly empty as public tours have been canceled. Some members of Congress, including Sens. Lindsey Graham and Ted Cruz, are self-quarantining after coming into contact with individuals diagnosed with Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, and they’re now waiting for the results of their own tests. A handful of House and Senate offices are also making the decision to close down their DC offices and directing staff to work remotely.

    At least 16 cases of Covid-19 were confirmed in DC as of Saturday after days before the mayor declared a state of emergency in the city, also with newly announced restrictions on bars and restaurants starting Sunday.

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    Rep. Schweikert announced his office will be closing until further notice as staff members work remotely. His office in Scottsdale, Arizona is also preparing to work from home out “an abundance of caution.” 

    Many more such announcements for Capitol Hill staffers to “go remote” are expected this week as the crisis continues, and as more confirmed positive cases emerge. 

    However, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi previously pledged to lawmakers that as “captains of the ship” they would be “the last to leave.”


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 03/15/2020 – 20:10

  • Bernie Vs. Biden In 11th Democratic Debate
    Bernie Vs. Biden In 11th Democratic Debate

    Joe Biden will face off with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) during tonight’s Democratic debate.

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    The former Vice President will need to remain calm and focused after several recent gaffes – including telling a Detroit autoworker that he’s “full of shit” for criticizing him over his plans for the Second Amendment, causing some to question his mental fitness to be president.

    Watch live:

    Snippets and hot-takes:

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    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 03/15/2020 – 19:55

  • With All Eyes On Outbreak, Putin Signs Law That Could See Him In Power To 2036
    With All Eyes On Outbreak, Putin Signs Law That Could See Him In Power To 2036

    With the world focused on combating the deadly coronavirus pandemic, and whole societies across the West hunkering down in quarantine mode, President Putin authorized a controversial law on constitutional changes that could theoretically allow him to be president until 2036. 

    The 67-year old Russian president signed the measure Saturday, which barely made a blip in world headlines considering highly impacted Covid-19 countries are simply now fighting to survive and stabilize their economies through the outbreak. The proposed change to the Russian constitution is still subject to a national vote, however.

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    Russian President Vladimir Putin, via the AP.

    First the Constitutional Court must rule on the legality of the changes, which would lead to the next step, a planned nationwide vote on April 22. It passed easily through Russian parliament last week with a mere single vote against it.

    Currently, Putin is barred from running for president again when his term expires in 2024, given term limits, but the new law would reset this. A single presidential term is 6 years.

    Speaking at the State Duma last Tuesday, Putin appealed the stability of the nation during chaotic and uncertain times of enemies both within and without:

    It’s important, he said, for a president to ensure the country’s “evolutionary development.” Now, he said, is not the time to move too quickly to change how Russian state power operates: “We have had enough revolutions.”

    Perhaps most interesting was that he actually appealed to the historical development of the same issue in the United States:

    Putin told lawmakers on Tuesday that he did not endorse completely eliminating presidential term limits, one element of the proposal by Tereshkova. But he strongly backed the idea of resetting the number of terms for which he could run.

    In his appeal to parliament, Putin also pointed to other countries that have no restrictions on presidential terms. Even in the United States, he said, the two-term limit has only been in place since the 22nd Amendment was ratified in 1951.

    Among other constitutional changes authorized by Putin are a permanent constitutional outlawing of same-sex marriage, as well as inclusion in “a belief in God” named as one of Russia’s traditional values.

    All of this follows Putin’s major January shake-up which led to the resignation of the government. Though Putin touted the move as giving more power to parliament and democratic institutions, critics in the West saw it as ultimately leading to his solidifying his further rule and hold across other Russian branches of government.


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 03/15/2020 – 19:45

  • Chaos As 'Enhanced Screening' Airports Overwhelmed; US Citizens Scramble Back From Europe
    Chaos As ‘Enhanced Screening’ Airports Overwhelmed; US Citizens Scramble Back From Europe

    Since Trump’s Europe travel ban went into effect, Americans returning home have been diverted through just thirteen US airports, also as new federal travel requirements and coronavirus ‘enhanced’ screening instituted by President Trump are implemented.

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    Videos and photos posted to social media reveal a weekend of insanity and packed airport queues in an increasingly ‘high risk’ health crisis.

    Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport revealed the most chaotic scenes: thousands standing should-to-shoulder in an airport corridor amid a deadly pandemic, reportedly for at least seven hours before entering the screening area and airport exit.

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    Airports authorized to receive return flights from Europe, and which are set up for Covid-19 screening, include the following according to the advisory:

    • Atlanta: Hartsfield–Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL)
    • Boston: Boston Logan International Airport (BOS)
    • Chicago: Chicago O’Hare International Airport (ORD)
    • Dallas/Fort Worth: Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport (DFW)
    • Detroit: Detroit Metropolitan Airport (DTW)
    • Honolulu: Daniel K. Inouye International Airport (HNL)
    • Los Angeles: Los Angeles International Airport (LAX)
    • Miami: Miami International Airport (MIA)
    • New York City: John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK)
    • Newark, N.J.: Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR)
    • San Francisco: San Francisco International Airport (SFO)
    • Seattle: Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (SEA)
    • Washington, D.C.: Washington-Dulles International Airport (IAD)

    O’Hare Airport acknowledged Saturday in a public statement that screening and control areas were taking “longer than usual”. The ‘enhanced screening’ includes a temperature check and questions about flyers’ recent travel history.

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    The airport chaos led to a response from Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker who tweeted that the situation at O’Hare and the massive crowds were “unacceptable”.

    Other officials slammed the intensifying situation as creating a serious health risk. 

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    Airport staff at O’Hare and other airports were seen handing out snacks, water, hand sanitizer and disinfectant wipes to the anxious crowds. 

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    The WSJ interviewed one frustrated passenger who described the Covid-19 screening measures: 

    Lonnie Corpus was returning from Iceland with friends—retired teachers from Wisconsin. Their flight landed at 6:40 p.m. They made it out at about 11 p.m. The questioning itself, and a quick temperature check, didn’t take long once they made it to the front of the line that snaked around corners.

    State and local officials are now urging the federal government to step in and assist with the massive delays and airport infrastructure strain, but whatever drastic action might be taken increasingly looks too little too late. 


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 03/15/2020 – 19:20

  • Listen Live: Fed's Powell Holds Emergency Phone Conference Explaining Why Nothing Is F**ked Here
    Listen Live: Fed’s Powell Holds Emergency Phone Conference Explaining Why Nothing Is F**ked Here

    Powell better explain why the market’s reaction is wrong or else…

    Here are the highlights from Bloomberg:

    • *POWELL: FED’S ROLE IS GUIDED BY OUR MANDATE
    • *POWELL: U.S. ECONOMY WAS ON A SOLID FOOTING BEFORE VIRUS STRUCK
    • *POWELL: WEAKNESS ABROAD WILL WEIGH ON U.S. EXPORTS
    • *POWELL: POLICY MAKERS MUST DO WHAT WE CAN TO EASE HARDSHIP
    • *POWELL: INFLATION WILL LIKELY BE HELD DOWN THIS YEAR BY VIRUS
    • *POWELL: VIRUS PRESENTS SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC CHALLENGES
    • *POWELL: VIRUS WILL MEAN LOWER ECONOMIC ACTIVITY FOR PERIOD
    • *POWELL: SEVERAL FINANCIAL MARKETS HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF STRESS
    • *POWELL: WE ENCOURAGE BANKS TO TURN TO THE DISCOUNT WINDOW
    • *POWELL: 2Q ECONOMY IS PROBABLY GOING TO BE WEAK
    • *POWELL: TODAY’S FOMC’S MEETING IN LIEU OF THE TUES/WED MEETING
    • *POWELL SAYS FOMC WON’T HOLD ITS PLANNED MEETING THIS WEEK
    • *POWELL: FORWARD GUIDANCE, ASSET PURCHASES ARE OUR BASIC TOOLKIT
    • *POWELL: ASSET PURCHASES ARE AIMED AT RESTORING MARKET FUNCTION
    • *POWELL: BOND BUYING WILL FOSTER MORE ACCOMMODATIVE CONDITIONS
    • *POWELL: WHAT WE DID TODAY WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO FINANCIAL MKTS
    • *POWELL: 2Q ECONOMY IS PROBABLY GOING TO BE WEAK
    • *POWELL: HARD TO SAY HOW BIG EFFECTS WILL BE, HOW LONG WILL LAST
    • *POWELL: WE WILL CONTINUE CLOSELY MONITOR DEVELOPMENT
    • *POWELL: WE DON’T HAVE THE TOOLS TO REACH INDIVIDUALS, SMALL BIZ
    • *POWELL: DON’T SEE NEGATIVE RATES AS APPROPRIATE POLICY IN U.S.
    • *POWELL: FISCAL POLICY IS A WAY TO DIRECT MORE TARGETED RELIEF
    • *POWELL: WE DO THINK FISCAL RESPONSE IS CRITICAL
    • *POWELL: RESTORING MARKET FUNCTION SUPPORTS ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
    • *POWELL: ASSET BUYS AIMED AT SUPPORTING CREDIT AVAILABILITY
    • *POWELL: FED NOT SEEKING PERMISSION TO BUY OTHER SECURITIES
    • *POWELL: ASSET BUYS AIMED AT SUPPORTING CREDIT AVAILABILITY
    • *POWELL: FED IS GOING TO BUY SECURITIES AT A STRONG RATE
    • *POWELL: THAT LANGUAGE IS OPEN ENDED, SENDING SIGNAL TO MARKET
    • *POWELL: WE’RE GOING IN STRONG STARTING TOMORROW, ACROSS CURVE
    • *POWELL: WE’LL WILLING TO BE PATIENT ON RATES
    • *POWELL: WATCHING TO DETERMINE IF ECONOMY HAS WEATHERED VIRUS
    • *POWELL SAYS HE FEELS FINE, VERY WELL, NO REASON TO BE TESTED
    • *POWELL: LOT OF POWER IN OUR LIQUIDITY TOOLS, FORWARD GUIDANCE
    • *POWELL: WE HAVE PLENTY OF SPACE TO ADJUST OUT POLICY
    • *POWELL: DECIDED THURSDAY TO MOVE THE MEETING UP BY THREE DAYS
    • *POWELL: MAKING A FORECAST IN CURRENT CLIMATE DIDN’T SEEM USEFUL
    • *POWELL: U.S. ECONOMY STARTED FROM STRONG POSITION
    • *POWELL: 2Q WILL BE WEAKER, HARD TO SAY WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN 2H
    • *POWELL: NO FED FORECASTS THIS MONTH, NEXT LIKELY IN JUNE
    • *POWELL: FISCAL POLICY CAN REACH DIRECTLY TO AFFECTED SECTORS
    • *POWELL: BROADER FISCAL STIMULUS WILL DEPEND ON PATH OF ECONOMY
    • *POWELL: HARD TO SAY WHAT WILL HAPPEN BUT MAY BE NEED FOR THAT
    • *POWELL: WILL WATCH TREASURY MARKETS FOR RETURN TO NORMAL
    • *POWELL: WILL USE TOOLS TO SUPPORT MARKET FUNCTION, CREDIT FLOW
    • *POWELL: ECONOMIC DATA WILL FOLLOW THE SPREAD OF THE VIRUS
    • *POWELL: DURATION OF VIRUS EFFECTS WILL HINGE ON MEASURES TAKEN
    • *POWELL: WE HAVE PLENTY OF POWER LEFT IN OUR TOOLS, POLICY SPACE
    • *POWELL: THERE IS ROOM FOR US TO DO WHAT WE NEED TO DO
    • *POWELL: FISCAL POLICY TYPICALLY PLAYS A MAJOR ROLE IN DOWNTURNS
    • *POWELL: BANKS ARE HIGHLY CAPITALIZED, SYSTEM IS RESILIENT
    • *POWELL: WE’RE IN ONGOING CONTACT WITH MAJOR CENTRAL BANKS


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 03/15/2020 – 18:48

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Mar 15

Today’s News 15th March 2020

  • A 70-Year War On "Propaganda" Built By The CIA
    A 70-Year War On “Propaganda” Built By The CIA

    Authored by Cynthia Chung via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    “Hell is empty and all the devils are here”

    – William Shakespeare (The Tempest Act 1 Scene 2)

    War has always depended on a reliable system to spread its propaganda. The Arthashastra written by Chankya (350-283 BCE) who was chief advisor to the Emperor Chandragupta (the first ruler of the Mauryan Empire) discusses propaganda and how to disperse and apply it in warfare. It is one of the oldest accounts of the essentialism of propaganda in warfare.

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    Propaganda is vital in times of war because it is absolutely imperative that the people, who often need to make the greatest sacrifices and suffer the most, believe that such a war is justified and that such a war will provide them security. To the degree that they believe this to be true, the greater the degree of sacrifice and suffering they are willing to submit themselves for said “promised security”.

    It is crucial that when the people look at the “enemy” they see something sub-human, for if they recognise that said “enemy” has in fact humanity, the jig is up so to speak.

    And thus we are bombarded day after day, hour after hour of reminders as to why the “enemy” is not human like us, not compassionate like us, not patient, just and wise like us.

    No doubt, war has been a necessary response when tyranny has formed an army to fight for its cause, but I would put forth that most wars have been rather unnecessary and downright manipulated for the design of a small group of people.

    During WWI, on Dec 25th 1914, something rather unexpected occurred and a series of widespread unofficial ceasefires along the Western Front took place between the French/British soldiers and the German soldiers. Some even ventured into “no man’s land”, given its name since none left it alive, to mingle with the “enemy” and exchange food and souvenirs. There were joint burial ceremonies and prisoner swaps. A game of football took place as well. It is said that these truces were not unique to the Christmas period but that they were much more widespread during the holiday season.

    These fraternisations would understandably make it quite difficult to return to combat against one another…for no apparently good reason. Some units needed to be relocated since they had developed friendships with the opposing side and now refused to fight them.

    The lesson was quickly learned and propaganda was heavily pumped down the throats of the Allied countries, and by the course of just a few years, they no longer viewed the Germans as human.

    The CIA’s Family Jewels and Operation Mockingbird

    For us to understand the implications of modern propaganda and how it is used in warfare today, our story starts post-WWII with Churchill’s announcement of the “Iron Curtain” which launched the Cold War and has kept the East and West divided to this day.

    Quickly after the Cold War was announced by Churchill, it was necessary to create a fervor of fear and paranoia amongst the American people in order to have them quickly forget the fact that the Russians were their greatest allies during both WWI and WWII, and to replace it with the image of a ghoulish race of boogeymen.

    If Americans were to remember that the Russians had fought valiantly during WWII and had paid by far the largest sacrifice to the cause, that they had in fact been their comrades in arms against the brutality of fascism, if this were remembered then the Cold War division could never occur, and that was something that could not be tolerated by Churchill and the Empire. Thus terror was unleashed on the American people and McCarthyism was given precedence over the people’s right to question and form conclusions for themselves. That sort of thing could not be tolerated when the “enemy” could be anywhere; they could be your neighbour, your child’s teacher, your co-worker…your partner.

    In order to combat the “threat” of Soviet “propaganda” entering the U.S. and seducing Americans, Operation Mockingbird was created as a form of “control” over information dissemination during the period of McCarthyism. Operation Mockingbird was an “alleged” CIA program that was started in the early 1950s in order to control the narrative of the news. Though this role has never been confirmed entirely, in the CIA Family Jewels report compiled in the mid-1970s, it is confirmed that Project Mockingbird did exist as a CIA operation and that it was guilty of wire-tapping journalists in Washington.

    At the helm of this project was none other than CIA Director Allen Dulles, an enemy of JFK, who by the early 1950s “allegedly” oversaw the media network and had major influence over 25 newspapers and wire agencies. Its function was to have the CIA write reports that would be used by a network of cooperating “credible” reporters. By these “credible” reporters spreading the CIA dictated narrative, it would be parroted by unwitting reporters (mockingbirds) and a successful echo chamber would be created across the world.

    The Office of Policy Coordination (OPC), originally named Office of Special Projects but that was thought to conspicuous, was a covert operation wing of the CIA and was created by the United States National Security Council (NSC). For those who are unfamiliar with the origins of the NSC and its close relationship with the CIA, who was born on the same day, refer to my paper on the subject.

    According to Deborah Davis’ biography of Katherine Graham (the owner of Washington Post), the OPC created Operation Mockingbird in response to addressing Soviet propaganda and included as part of its CIA contingency respected members from Washington Post, The New York Times, Newsweek, CBS and others.

    The Family Jewels report was an investigation made by the CIA to investigate…the CIA, spurred in response to the Watergate Scandal and the CIA’s unconstitutional role in the whole affair. The investigation of the CIA would include any other actions that were deemed illegal or inappropriate spanning from the 1950s-mid 1970s.

    We are told “most” of the report was declassified on June 25, 2007 (30 years later) hoping that people would have lost interest in the whole brouhaha. Along with the release of the redacted report was included a six-page summary with the following introduction:

    “The Central Intelligence Agency violated its charter for 25 years until revelations of illegal wiretapping, domestic surveillance, assassination plots, and human experimentation led to official investigations and reforms in the 1970s.”

    The most extensive investigation of the CIA relations with news media was conducted by the Church Committee, a U.S. Senate select committee in 1975 that investigated the abuses committed by the CIA, NSA, FBI, and IRS. The Church Committee report confirmed abundant CIA ties in both foreign and domestic news media.

    It is very useful that there exists an official recognition that false news was not only being encouraged by the CIA under the overseeing of the NSC during the Cold War period, but that the CIA was complicit in actually detailing the specific narrative that they wanted disseminated, and often going so far as to write the narrative and have a “credible” reporter’s name stamped on it.

    But the question begs, “Did the Cold War ever end?” and if not, why should we believe that the CIA’s involvement in such activities is buried in its past and that it has “reformed” its old ways?

    Western Journalists for Hire: How the CIA Buys News

    In order to answer this question, let us visit the sad case of Udo Ulfkotte. Udo Ulfkotte is a well-known German journalist and author of numerous books. He worked for 25 years as a journalist, 17 of which were for Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ), including his role as editor. In his 2014 book “Journalists for Hire: How the CIA Buys News” Ulfkotte goes over how the CIA along with German Intelligence (BND) were guilty of bribing journalists to write articles that either spun the truth or were completely fictitious in order to promote a pro-western, pro-NATO bent, and that he was one of those bought journalists.

    In an interview, Ulfkotte describes how he finally built up the nerve to publish the book, after years of it collecting dust, in response to the erupting crisis in Ukraine stating “I felt that the right time had come to finish it and publish it, because I am deeply worried about the Ukrainian crisis and the possible devastating consequences for all of Europe and all of us…I am not at all pro-Russia, but it is clear that many journalists blindly follow and publish whatever the NATO press office provides. And this type of information and reports are completely one-sided”.

    In another interview Ulfkotte stated:

    “it is clear as daylight that the agents of various Services were in the central offices of the FAZ, the place where I worked for 17 years. The articles appeared under my name several times, but they were not my intellectual product. I was once approached by someone from German Intelligence and the CIA, who told me that I should write about Gaddafi and report how he was trying to secretly build a chemical weapons factory in Libya. I had no information on any of this, but they showed me various documents, I just had to put my name on the article. Do you think this can be called journalism? I don’t think so.”

    Ulfkotte has publicly stated: “I am ashamed of it. The people I worked for knew from the get-go everything I did. And the truth must come out. It’s not just about FAZ, this is the whole system that’s corrupt all the way.”

    Udo Ulfkotte has since passed away. He died January 2017, found dead in his home, it is said by a hear t attack. His body was quickly after cremated and thus prevented any possibility of an autopsy occurring.

    You Can’t Teach An Old Dog New Tricks

    The Countering Foreign Propaganda and Disinformation Act is a bipartisan bill that was passed into law in December 2016, it was initially called Countering Information Warfare Act. It was included together with the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). This bill was brought into effect just weeks before Trump was to enter office….hmmm, foreshadowing much?

    Soon after the 2016 U.S. election, the Washington Post led the charge asserting that it was due to Russian propaganda that the U.S. elections turned out the way it did, that is, that Hillary had somehow, inconceivably, lost to Donald Trump and that the American people had been turned against her like a child caught in the middle of a messy divorce case. But there is no need here to set the record straight on Hillary, when Hillary herself has done suffice damage to any illusion of credibility she once had. That ultimately not even Hillary could hide the fact that her closet full of skeletons turned out to be the size of a catacomb.

    But we are told that citizens do not know what is best for one’s self. That they cannot be trusted with “sensitive” information and in accordance act in a “responsible” manner, that is, to have a strong enough stomach to do what is “best” for their country.

    And therefore, fear not subjects of the land, for the Global Engagement Center (GEC) is here to make those hard decisions for you. Don’t know what to think about a complicated subject? GEC will tell you the right way!

    The National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) would allow for the Secretary of State to collaborate with the Secretary of Defense, and other Federal agencies in the year 2017 to create the Global Engagement Center (GEC). The GEC’s purpose in life is to fight propaganda from foreign governments and publicize the nature of ongoing foreign propaganda and disinformation operations against the U.S. and other countries.

    Let us all take a moment to thank the GEC for such a massive task in the cause for justice all around the world.

    The GEC had a very slow start in its first year, however, it has been gaining momentum in the last year under Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who seems especially excited over the hiring of Lea Gabrielle as special envoy and coordinator of GEC.

    Mike Pompeo was the CIA Director from 2017-2018. On April 15, 2019, Pompeo participated in a discussion at the Texas A&M University where he voluntarily offered the admission that though West Points’ cadet motto is “You will not lie, cheat, or steal, or tolerate those who do.”, his training under the CIA was the very opposite, stating “I was the CIA Director. We lied, we cheated, we stole. It was like we had entire training courses. (long pause) It reminds you of the glory of the American experiment”.

    This is apparently the man for the job of dealing with matters of “truth” and “justice”.

    Lea Gabrielle was approved for her position by Mike Pompeo, what are her “qualifications”? Well, Gabrielle is also CIA trained, and while assigned to the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), she “directed and conducted global clandestine strategic intelligence collection operations.” Gabrielle also “deployed in tactical anti-terrorist operations in hostile environments”. After 12 years of active duty service, Lea Gabrielle became a television news journalist, who worked at NBC and FOX News.

    Noticing a pattern?

    The CIA really does not have the best track record for their role in “managing” foreign wars and counter-insurgency activities. In fact, they have been caught rather red handed in fueling such crisis situations. And these are the people who are deciding what information is fit for the American public, and western public in general, and what is not fit for their ears.

    Hear No Evil, Speak No Evil, See No Evil

    On March 5, 2020, Lea Gabrielle testified on the role of GEC in countering state-sponsored and non-state propaganda and disinformation. Gabrielle states: “We have the full support of Secretary Pompeo who is committed to deploying a broad suite of tools to stop America’s adversaries from using disinformation, malign propaganda, and other tools to undermine free societies.” She goes on to acknowledge that the hearing is focused on countering Russian government and CCP disinformation and propaganda. She then goes on to outline her criticisms of both governments with no factual detail or evidence but rather generalised accusations and criticisms, obviously pulling from her experience as a news journalist for NBC.

    Following this, Gabrielle proceeds to outline her “rules of engagement” in countering this offensive with what seems to be the beginnings of McCarthyism 2.0, amounting to a threat to anyone who dares not take a hard stance against Russia and China, that such a person will be considered complicit in essentially committing treason. Hell, if Bernie Sanders and Tulsi Gabbard (who was unconstitutionally prohibited from participating in the final democratic presidential debates) have both already been accused of being a Russian agent, what can we expect for the average Joe?

    Gabrielle concludes, “Both the Russian government and the CCP view censorship, media manipulation, and propaganda as appropriate tools to control public opinion. Both exploit open, democratic societies to further their own ends while tightening controls around their own countries.”

    Don’t worry, the CIA will eventually admit that they are elbow deep in all of the above, it just won’t be released until 30 years from now…In the meantime, I wouldn’t believe everything you read in the newspaper to stoke the fires for another war.


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 03/15/2020 – 00:20

  • Covid-19 Pandemic To Crash Sex Worker Income
    Covid-19 Pandemic To Crash Sex Worker Income

    The world has already transitioned into panic about Covid-19. Widespread social, political, and economic disruptions have developed. Hard-hit countries, as we noted last week, have responded with a similar blueprint of shutting down their economies for virus containment purposes. 

    Social distancing has been one of the most widely enforced policies by governments, imposed on their citizens to mitigate the spread of the highly contagious disease. As a result, sex workers in many countries have seen their incomes crash as clients abide by the new public health policies, reported Vice News. 

    Let’s first start with defining social distancing. It’s a public health practice that aims to reduce disease transmission, including canceling large public gatherings, closing public spaces, working from home, and avoiding other people. The purpose is to slow down the outbreak to reduce the rate of infections and to reduce overwhelming the health care system. 

    Sex workers, many of which depend on the intimate physical interaction of their clients to get paid, are warning that social distancing could leave them penniless in the near term: 

    “A lot of sex workers are freaking out right now,” said Andrea Werhun, 30, a stripper based in Toronto.

    Multiple sex workers told VICE their clientele volumes at clubs had seen a notable drop since social distancing policies have been implemented across North America.

    “I feel like my career as a dancer is in jeopardy as it becomes increasingly less viable to hang out in crowds, which is kind of what I do every Friday and Saturday night in order to make money,” Werhun said.

    Werhun said businessmen are a considerable part of her client book. Still, since corporations have told employees to work remotely and restrict travel – this has led to the decline in her business. She said strippers don’t have the luxury of a salary or sick days: 

    “It’s a big, big blow,” she said. “Locals and regulars are keeping sex workers afloat right now.”

    Werhun has thought about diversifying to live streaming performances at home if a nationwide lockdown was seen. 

    She has yet to screen clients who could be carriers of the disease. Community spreading has already taken place in major metro areas in North America; the true extent of the spread is still unknown as test kits lack. 

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    Americas Covid-19 Virus Map 

    Amanda Winters, 27, a stripper based in Miami, told VICE she started stripping to pay off student loans, and now she’s struggling to make ends meet as clients avoid clubs out of fear, they might contract the virus.

    “I am getting more concerned about my financial situation,” Winters said. “On a stable schedule, I often would have two to four good clients a night…the past week—going on two now—I have had one full client.”

    Winters said if the business at the Miami club remains low – she might be forced to live stream at home. 

    Taylor Stevens, 29, a diversified stripper bouncing between Toronto and Las Vegas, has live stream shows that are doing well. She said in recent weeks, traffic volume from Italy was off the charts. 

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    Taylor Stevens

    Toronto dominatrix Lady Pim told Vice she’s preparing for a Covid-19 downturn and has diversified her sex work. 

    “It’s kind of looking like parts of Canada could go into a time where we aren’t going to be able to leave our houses—then, your livelihood might be threatened, like, I’m not on salary, I don’t have sick days,” said Lady Pim. 

    “My sex work is diversified. I will still make a portion of my income doing it from home with Skype sessions, texting dominations, and phone call dominations, so a quarantine wouldn’t lead to a complete loss in income,” she said.

    Lady Pim said quarantines would drive people to pay for online sex: 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    “If we’re in lockdown—just by ourselves, don’t have a partner, and don’t have any sex or kink outlets—then I can 100 percent see people turning around to do a Skype session or phone session.”

    Smart strippers are now diversifying their sex work before a “coronavirus winter” leads to mass quarantines and an economic crash. 


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 03/14/2020 – 23:55

  • The S**t Might Actually Be Hitting The Fan But Somehow It Doesn't Feel Real
    The S**t Might Actually Be Hitting The Fan But Somehow It Doesn’t Feel Real

    Authored by Daisy Luther via The Organic Prepper blog,

    So here we are. Right on the cusp of that SHTF event that we’ve been prepping for all these years.

    A global pandemic.

    A breakdown in the supply chain.

    Shoppers who are already becoming agitated and even violent.

    We’re watching it all unfold in our hometowns and across our nation right now.

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    Yet, somehow, it still doesn’t feel real to me. Is it just me who finds this hard to fathom? Am I the only one who still thinks doubtful thoughts? Like “No way. It’s going to be okay. You’re overreacting. It’s a little scare, just like Ebola and MERS and SARS.”

    I’ve researched and written about this stuff for years. I always knew it could happen. I was whole-heartedly convinced of these possibilities and yet when this situation began to move irrevocably toward disaster, I find myself, somehow, shocked.

    I can’t be the only one who has prepared for this yet still feels stuck in normalcy bias, thinking “this isn’t going to get as bad as you think” even as I watch the events unfold around us pretty much like we in the survival community always predicted. There’s still that doubtful voice in my head, making me wonder about spending even more money on another “last” shopping trip.

    Heck, maybe this makes me a bad prepper. A fake survivalist. A fraud.

    Or maybe it’s only natural to think that life will keep moving on pretty much like it always has.

    Will Covid-19 really be the thing that brings us down? Will the nation devolve into chaos? I’d like to say no with firm conviction. After all, there have been close calls before. But the rational part of me won’t allow that firm conviction, despite the part that says, don’t be silly, everything will be just fine after a brief blip.

    I believe it’s okay to feel this way as long as you don’t allow it to get in the way of your preparations or of your acceptance of the disaster when it actually unfolds in all its shocking reality.

    Maybe I’m oversharing here and a whole bunch of folks will unsubscribe. I don’t know. But if others are feeling the same way, I want you to know that you aren’t alone.

    Instincts vs. Normalcy Bias

    I think people have come down on one of two sides since the Covid-19 virus first came onto our radar back in late December or early January. Some people have thought, “This is the next plague” while others have thought, “So what? The flu is more deadly.” Now that we’re down to the wire, we’ll soon find out which line of thinking was the most accurate.

    A lot of this goes down to a decision. Are you going to believe your gut or are you going to believe the logical normalcy bias that tells you this isn’t how things go in the United States of America?

    My gut has been telling me since mid-January that this thing is a major event. After all, would China have tanked its economy and locked down a city of 20 million people, welding their doors closed in many cases, if this novel coronavirus was no big deal? Would Italy have locked down their entire country and begun turning away patients over the age of 65 to funnel resources to those more likely to survive if this was just another common, everyday flu?

    But the logical side of me says, “This is the US. We will be just fine.” Because we’ve always been just fine in my lifetime. We were bruised and shaken, but bounced back with fierce resolve on 9/11. We were fine when Ebola reached our shores back in 2014. We recovered after Hurricane Katrina and Superstorm Sandy and all the other named storms that have hit. We’re Americans. We are resilient. It’s who we are.

    However, our resilience may not be enough to conquer a crisis that was badly mishandled from the get-go. It may not be enough to overcome less than a million hospital beds in a country with more than 327 million people. The enemy is a virus we know hardly anything about and we can’t even believe the numbers out there from China or our own government.

    People are getting tense.

    This afternoon when I heard there was a press conference in the Rose Garden at 3 pm, I had a bad feeling. I wondered if my calculations were off when I figured that we could begin to see major quarantines in about a week. I headed to the store with my 19-year-old daughter to get there ahead of the crowds that would certainly be imminent if such an announcement was made. We picked up extra cat litter, extra pet food, some hardware, and extra frozen vegetables.

    When I went to the grocery store, I saw that frozen veggies were on sale 10 for $10. I grabbed 10 bags of frozen spinach and saw a rotund angry-looking woman glaring at me. I gave her a “what?” look and she said, “Aren’t you going to leave any for other people?”

    I said politely, “I’m sorry. Did you want some of the spinach?” I picked up 3 bags from my cart and offered them to her.

    She said, “No, I don’t want any spinach. A$$hole.”

    I replied calmly, “Okay, well, have a nice day” and left with my spinach. I wasn’t about to get into an altercation at Kroger over a one-dollar bag of spinach the other woman didn’t even want. It looks like that de-escalation course I took paid off because my first instinct was not to be pleasant and disregard her insults.

    I saw the tension on people’s faces as they pushed their carts quickly up and down the aisles, the tunnel vision obvious. If someone stopped in an aisle – a common thing to do at the grocery store – the folks behind them would give a loud sigh of annoyance. I even saw a couple of people bumping into others with their carts – whether it was carelessness or deliberately done, I couldn’t tell.

    I left the store with my purchases, happy to get out of there and content with what I had. I know that I’m as well-stocked as I can get with the money that I have. If it’s not enough, then we’ll move through plans B, C, and the rest of the alphabet.

    The official response

    I can’t be the only person who finds the official response to be much too little, far too late.

    To be perfectly clear, I don’t really blame the President or the Vice President. They’re in a rather impossible situation in which no matter what they do, the outcome is bad. If they shut everything down completely, there would be panic the likes of which we’ve never seen. And the economic fallout would be exponentially worse than it already is.

    This also impairs their ability to be totally forthcoming. While people in the preparedness community would prefer brutal facts over soothing fiction, most people really don’t want to know how bad things are or how bad they’ll become. So the government will continue to dance around the subject until they can dance no more and we reach a point where the truth is obvious to even the most obvious clinger to normalcy.

    On the other hand, the press conference at the White House left me feeling even more uneasy than I had felt before.

    Parading a bunch of CEOs before us and showing that ridiculous flow chart that looked like something a 4th grader might hand in for a school project certainly did nothing to make me feel like things were “under control.” I don’t care at all what the head of CVS pharmacies thinks about the outbreak or his ability to keep stores running.

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    In fact, the main thing I gathered from that is that CVS, Walmart, and Target will be the distribution points that remain open during the crisis. Mom and Pop stores may not have access to warehouses or supplies. This way it will be easier for the government to ration things out and enforce rules like “one bag of rice per household” should it come to that. I actually posted an article about this topic a few months back.

    I thought that President Trump looked and sounded unwell during the press conference. Whether that is the effect of stress or he’s become ill, it’s impossible to say.

    All in all, I was not reassured by anything in that press conference.

    What is exponential growth?

    Rationally, I’m aware that with the increase in confirmed cases and the exponential spread of this virus, we’ve probably passed the point of no return. The New York Times explains exponential growth with this chart. These are the number of cases confirmed on certain dates.

    • Jan. 21 — 1

    • Jan. 28 — 5

    • Feb. 4 — 11

    • Feb. 11 — 14

    • Feb. 18 — 25

    • Feb. 25 — 59

    • Mar. 3 — 125

    • Mar. 10 — 1,004

    And on the morning of March 14, we’re up to 2175 cases.

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    As the “drive-through” testing facilities open up with free tests, we can expect that number to grow quite a lot.

    The magnitude of the outbreak creeps up on you; it doesn’t look like things are growing very much, and then suddenly they are. Today, the U.S. is up to at least 1,714 known cases and we’re only a couple of days on from when it was 1,004. It’s going to be 4,000 by Monday, and then it’s going to be 8,000 by next Wednesday, and then it’s…. Exponential growth is staggering when it takes over.

    Exponential growth is a classic pattern in which numbers stay small initially, but then you end up with very large numbers very quickly. If you start with a certain number, and then multiply that number by a growth factor every day, depending on what that growth rate is, you’ll see the cumulative number doubling over a certain time period.

    What really matters is how high that growth rate is. In the U.S. right now, according to Our World in Data, confirmed Covid-19 cases are increasing by about 30 to 40 percent per day and the total number is doubling about every two days. (source)

    This is exactly the situation that China, Italy, Iran, and all the other countries with massive outbreaks have found themselves in and the United States is probably next.

    Is the SHTF really happening?

    We are still at a stage in a shell game and nobody knows which shell the SHTF is hiding under. Nobody knows if we can reel things in and gain control of the situation. Nobody knows if we’re going to go the way of Italy, where an entire nation is locked down and singing from their balconies to raise morale in a desperate situation.

    I wonder if people who have lived through horrible situations ever imagined in their wildest dreams how bad things would get. I know that in Selco’s book, SHTF Survival Stories, he wrote about this. Nobody ever truly expected things to happen the way they did. There was a period of adjustment and all the rules changed but a lot of folks didn’t accept the changes soon enough and they did not survive.

    When I silence the part of my mind that says, this can’t be happening, I’m only left with the realistic part that says, “Yes. It is.”

    While we don’t 100% know how this pandemic will play out in our country, we have to be ready for things to go badly. In her book, The Covid-19 Survival Manual, Cat Ellis talked about the inability of our hospitals to handle thousands of patients. We have less than a million beds in a country of 327 million people. And most of those beds are not in places equipped to handle highly contagious sick people. And what about the people with other health issues? Our medical system won’t be able to handle exponential growth no matter how hard they try or how much they want to help.

    When I look at how grocery stores and discount stores across the country look like a horde of locusts went through and decimated the inventory, I know this is a bad sign. When a friend who manages a large grocery store says to me, “Our truck was only half full today. If buying and inventory continue like this, we will be out of food by Monday,” I can only imagine the havoc that stores out of food will wreak.

    It’s going to be like Black Friday times a thousand, something I’ve written about for years.

    This entire thing is surreal, isn’t it?

    If I’ve written about and prepared for the SHTF for years and am having trouble wrapping my head around the fact that we’re in the early stages of it, what must it feel like for someone who is brand new to the concept?

    It’s one thing to watch it happen someplace far away from the screen of our laptops or televisions but entirely another to watch it unfold at home. However, we have to accept it and we have to act quickly and decisively. One of the most important things I’ve learned from Selco is about accepting the new rules.

    One of the most important things he taught me is to adapt quickly (immediately) to the “new rules” that apply when the SHTF. And to do that, you need to know what it’s like so you won’t be shocked…frozen…paralyzed by the things taking place right in front of you. When there is a new set of rules, the old rules no longer apply. The rules about waiting patiently for the government to save you? The rules about how people won’t walk up and steal from you in broad daylight because they’ll be arrested? The rules that you will get paid for your work and then you can go to the store and buy what you need?

    Those rules will be gone. And when you start seeing these new rules appear you will know that the sh*t has hit the oscillating device and the world as you knew it has changed.

    I know this and yet I still think (hope) in one part of my mind that it won’t happen that way here. That’s the most dangerous misconception in survival.

    The other part of my mind knows that it could. And that’s the part which propels me through getting prepared despite what the doubtful side whispers.

    It’s not just you.

    So if you’ve found yourself not quite believing what you’re seeing, not quite believing that all hell could break loose in America at any point now, you aren’t alone. If you look at everything heading to hell on a greasy slide and think it doesn’t feel real, it’s not just you. I’m feeling that way myself.

    I’m sharing this because I bet a lot of people are feeling the same way. Second-guessing themselves. Doubting themselves. Feeling like they aren’t good preppers. You aren’t alone and I’ll bet a whole lot of folks who won’t admit it feel this way too.

    We don’t believe it because we don’t want to believe it. We never actually wanted to be right when we stockpiled and learned skills and bought more supplies that we actually had room to house.

    But the thing that puts us ahead in this situation is that we prepared anyway. We learned anyway. And when we see the more obvious signs of a societal breakdown we will be able to accept it a lot faster than those who never even considered it.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 03/14/2020 – 23:30

  • Enterprising Opportunists Confronted At Costco For Lysol Wipe Profiteering
    Enterprising Opportunists Confronted At Costco For Lysol Wipe Profiteering

    A Vancouver couple has come under fire for buying up literal truck-loads of Lysol disinfecting wipes from a local Costco and reselling them for a significant markup, according to Toronto Star reporter Douglas Quan.

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    Quan was on-scene to report on people stocking up on supplies when he ran into the couple, Manny Ranga and Violeta Perez, who told Quan they were buying in bulk and reselling on Amazon.

    “Before I even got to the front entrance, I stumbled across this couple who were loading up the back of their Ford pick-up truck with these stacks and stacks of Lysol disinfecting wipes,” Quan said. “Naturally that piqued my curiosity, and so I approached them and started chatting with them.”

    The pair explained to Quan how they hit several Costco locations every day in Vancouver, Richmond and Burnaby, buy up all the Lysol wipes and cleaning liquid on hand, then turn them around for re-sale on their Amazon store Violeta & Sons Trading Ltd.

    “It’s a big opportunity with all these products,” Ranga told the Star.

    Quan says they had what appeared to be hundreds of cases stacked up on Costco pallets — enough that Ranga had to take two trips to get them all home.

    “They were attracting a fair amount of attention from shoppers going in and out of the store. I wasn’t the only person there that, you know, couldn’t help but stop and stare,” he said.

    “One woman came up and remarked, ‘Gosh, is that all for you?‘ And another woman later on came by and said, ‘Wow, someone’s making a lot of money today.'” –CBC

    A six-pack of wipes sells for around $20 at Costco, but goes for around $80 online, according to the c ouple. Ranga told Quan they’d spent around $70,000 on bulk buys and raked in around $100,000 in sales.

    Amazon has since suspended the couple’s account, according to CBC.

    Other profiteers have also been cut-off from online selling platforms. The New York Times is out with a Saturday piece on Tennessee brothers Matt and Noah Colvin, who set out on a 1,300 mile journey in a U-Haul truck to buy thousands of bottles of hand sanitizer and antibacterial wipes, mostly from “little hole-in-the-wall dollar stores in the backwoods,” as “The major metro areas were cleaned out.”

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    An Amazon merchant, Matt Colvin, with an overflow stock of cleaning and sanitizing supplies in his garage in Hixson, Tenn.Credit…Doug Strickland for The New York Times

    Matt Colvin stayed home near Chattanooga, preparing for pallets of even more wipes and sanitizer he had ordered, and starting to list them on Amazon. Mr. Colvin said he had posted 300 bottles of hand sanitizer and immediately sold them all for between $8 and $70 each, multiples higher than what he had bought them for. To him, “it was crazy money.” To many others, it was profiteering from a pandemic. –New York Times

    Then, Amazon pulled his items along with thousands of other listings for sanitizer, wipes and face masks – suspending sellers and warning others that if they continue to price-gouge they’ll lose their accounts.

    Ebay has followed suit with even stricter measures which prohibit the US sale of masks or sanitizer.

    In early February, as headlines announced the coronavirus’s spread in China, Mr. Colvin spotted a chance to capitalize. A nearby liquidation firm was selling 2,000 “pandemic packs,” leftovers from a defunct company. Each came with 50 face masks, four small bottles of hand sanitizer and a thermometer. The price was $5 a pack. Mr. Colvin haggled it to $3.50 and bought them all.

    He quickly sold all 2,000 of the 50-packs of masks on eBay, pricing them from $40 to $50 each, and sometimes higher. He declined to disclose his profit on the record but said it was substantial.

    The success stoked his appetite. When he saw the panicked public starting to pounce on sanitizer and wipes, he and his brother set out to stock up. -NYT

    Now, Colvin is sitting on 17,700 bottles of sanitizer with no idea where to sell them.

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    Hand sanitizer that Mr. Colvin is keeping in a storage locker.Credit…Doug Strickland for The New York Times

    “It’s been a huge amount of whiplash,” he said. “From being in a situation where what I’ve got coming and going could potentially put my family in a really good place financially to ‘What the heck am I going to do with all of this?'”

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    Blowback

    Massachusetts nurse Mikeala Kozlowski had some harsh words for disinfectant profiteers as she continues a fruitless search for sanitizer since before she gave birth to her first child on March 5.

    “You’re being selfish, hoarding resources for your own personal gain,” she said.

    Meanwhile, companies like Amazon have justified their crackdown as violating their policies.

    “Price gouging is a clear violation of our policies, unethical, and in some areas, illegal,” said Amazon in a statement. “In addition to terminating these third party accounts, we welcome the opportunity to work directly with states attorneys general to prosecute bad actors.”

    Read the rest of the report here.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 03/14/2020 – 23:05

  • The Pandemic Stress Test
    The Pandemic Stress Test

    Authored by Raghuram Rajan via Project Syndicate,

    The coronavirus pandemic has taken the world by surprise and will now expose underlying economic weaknesses wherever they lie. But the crisis also reminds us that we live in a deeply interconnected world. If the pandemic has any silver lining, it is the possibility of a much-needed reset in public dialogue that focuses attention on the most vulnerable in society, on the need for global cooperation, and on the importance of professional leadership and expertise.

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    Apart from the direct impact on public health, a crisis of this magnitude can trigger at least two direct kinds of economic shock.

    • The first is a shock to production, owing to disrupted global supply chains. Suspending the production of basic pharmaceutical chemicals in China disrupts the production of generic drugs in India, which in turn reduces drug shipments to the United States.

    • The second shock is to demand: as people and governments take steps to slow the spread of the coronavirus, spending in restaurants, shopping malls, and tourist destinations collapses.

    But there is also the potential for indirect aftershocks, such as the recent plunge in oil prices following Russia and Saudi Arabia’s failure to agree on coordinated output cuts. As these and other shocks propagate, already stressed small- and medium-size businesses could be forced to shut down, leading to layoffs, lost consumer confidence, and further reductions in consumption and aggregate demand.

    Moreover, downgrades to, or defaults by, highly leveraged entities (shale-energy producers in the US; commodity-dependent developing countries) could lead to wider losses in the global financial system. That would curtail liquidity and credit, and trigger a dramatic tightening of the financial conditions that have hitherto been so supportive of growth.

    The parade of horrible possibilities could go on. The more fundamental point to remember is that the world economy never fully recovered from the 2008 global financial crisis, nor were the underlying problems that produced that disaster ever fully addressed. On the contrary, governments, businesses, and households around the world have piled on more debt, and policymakers have undermined trust in the global trading and investment system.

    But even though the world started with a weak hand, our response to the COVID-19 crisis could be far better than it has been. The immediate task is to limit the spread of the virus through widespread testing, rigorous quarantines, and social distancing. Most developed countries should be well-positioned to implement such measures; yet, Italy has been overwhelmed by the epidemic, and the US response has not exactly inspired confidence.

    Looking ahead, unless the coronavirus is eradicated globally, it could always return, or even become a seasonal disruption. If an effective treatment is not discovered soon (Gilead’s antiviral drug remdesivir currently shows some promise), all countries will face a choice between walling themselves off entirely and pushing for a global effort to eradicate the virus. Given that the former is an impossibility, the latter seems the natural choice. But it would require a degree of global leadership and cooperation that is sorely lacking. The presidency of the G20 is currently held by Saudi Arabia, which is mired in internal and external disputes; and US President Donald Trump’s administration has repudiated multilateral action from the outset.

    Still, some key countries could accomplish much if they stepped up to lead a global response, including by persuading more countries of the value of cooperation. For example, countries that have been relatively successful in managing the epidemic, such as China and South Korea, could share best practices. And as individual countries bring the coronavirus under control within their own borders, they could dispatch spare resources to countries that need more experienced medical personnel, respirators, testing kits, masks, and the like.

    Moreover, China and the US might finally be cajoled into reversing recent tariff increases and dispensing with threats of new ones (such as on cars). While a temporary reduction in tariffs would do little to enhance cross-border investment, it would at least offer a slight boost to trade. Moreover, an accord could enhance business sentiment about the post-pandemic recovery.

    Within countries, the immediate task – after implementing measures to contain the virus – is to support those in the informal or gig economy whose livelihoods will be disrupted by quarantines and social distancing. Those who are most vulnerable economically also tend to be those who lack access to medical care. Hence, at a minimum, governments should offer cash transfers to these individuals – or to everyone, if vulnerable populations are hard to identify – as well as coverage for virus-related medical expenses. Similarly, a moratorium on some tax payments may be necessary to help small- and medium-sized businesses, as would partial loan guarantees and other measures to keep credit flowing.

    In developed countries, in particular, the pandemic will soon reveal just how many people have joined the ranks of the precariat in recent years. This cohort skews young and includes many of those living in “left-behind” places. By definition, the precariat’s members lack the skills or education needed to secure stable jobs with benefits, and thus have little stake in “the system.” Cash transfers would send a message that the system still cares. But, of course, far more will need to be done to expand the social safety net and extend new opportunities to the economically marginalized.

    Populist parties and leaders have capitalized politically on the plight of the precariat, but they have failed to live up to their promises – even where they actually hold power. The pandemic may have a silver lining here, too. Governments that have undermined established disaster-preparedness agencies and early-warning protocols are now finding that they need the professionals and experts after all. COVID-19 has been quick to expose amateurism and incompetence. If the professionals are allowed to do their jobs, they can restore some of the public’s lost trust in the establishment.

    In the political arena, a more credible professional establishment will have an opportunity to advance sensible policies that address the problems facing the precariat without ushering in class warfare. But these openings won’t last forever. If the professionals fail to capitalize on them, the pandemic will offer no silver linings – only more dread, division, chaos, and misery.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 03/14/2020 – 22:40

  • California Governor Issues Executive Order Allowing State To Commandeer Hotels, Motels For Coronavirus Patients
    California Governor Issues Executive Order Allowing State To Commandeer Hotels, Motels For Coronavirus Patients

    California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) issued an executive order on Thursday that allows the state to take over hotels and motels in order to convert them into medical housing for coronavirus patients, according to the Palm Springs Desert Sun. 

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    According to the report, patients from the Grand Princess cruise ship have already been moved to such facilities, such as a 120-room hotel in San Carlos located near San Francisco. Officials are also looking for potential patient housing in “mothballed” facilities that could be cleaned up and repurposed.

    “As you can imagine, under our pandemic planning, we’re also looking to secure additional assets,” said Newsom.

    Under the executive order, the state’s Health and Human Services Agency and the Office of Emergency Services can commandeer private property for coronavirus treatment, as well as offer economic relief for residents, Fox News reports.

    “This is where we need to go next, and to make sure we fully implement those procedures and protocols to slow down the spread to get through a peak and to get through the next few months, so we don’t overwhelm our healthcare delivery system,” Newsom said, according to the LA Times.

    The executive order also eliminates a one-week waiting period for unemployment benefits. In Sacramento, meanwhile, the City Council approved a $1 million economic relief package in a Friday night vote which will provide zero-interest loans of up to $25,000 to restaurants, retail, daycare and other businesses which are being affected by coronavirus precautions.

    Meanwhile in Los Angeles, Mayor Eric Garcetti closed City Hall to the public along with banning all events or conferences on city-owned property which will have over 50 people. Meetings will be conducted via teleconference.

    “We are entering a critical period,” said Garcetti, adding “These are common-sense measures.”

    There are currently 282 known cases of COVID-19 in California, which is home to around 40 million people.

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    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 03/14/2020 – 22:15

  • The Good Luck Ran Out Because The Dollars Did
    The Good Luck Ran Out Because The Dollars Did

    Authored by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investments,

    Jay Powell has a lot of catching up to do, and very little time to do it. He’s squandered so much already. First his emergency rate cut blew up in his face and now his dud of a bazooka. Before the market got going, officials had already added a 25-day allotment (of bank reserves, of course) on top of the usual overnight and 14-day terms.

    Obviously, it wasn’t enough; or, more accurately, it wasn’t the right thing. Undeterred, Powell’s Fed decided at some point during the disastrous morning to just say, screw it, and raise the roof. In a matter of hours, a 3-month (84-day) “repo” auction was announced, conducted, and closed.

    The scale of the thing was supposed to wow you and all the suddenly impatient sellers on the NYSE (not intended as much for the repo market, as you’ll see). Half a trillion, baby! That’s the amount of “liquidity” authorities put up for bidding on this day of days.

    Dealers ended up taking in all of $78.4 billion, or about 16% of what was possible. Either things aren’t nearly as bad as they seem (literally no one is buying that scenario), or something is wrong in bank reserve-land. Perhaps dealers just don’t want them, or maybe they don’t have the spare collateral to post for them.

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    Even the stock market (THE STOCK MARKET!!!) wasn’t impressed. It is maybe starting to dawn on folks the central truth in all this – the central bank just isn’t central. The monetary world is so much more complicated than the simple model employed by both classroom Economics and the technically deficient policymakers these days struggling just to get by on a daily basis.

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    The theoretical issue, much of it, stems from a misreading of the Great “Moderation.” The pre-crisis era had been written down as the product of several factors, including Greenspan’s allegedly maestro-like performance.

    The Economists who coined the term Great “Moderation” weren’t actually so sure. In their groundbreaking 2002 paper, James Stock and Mark Watson pointed to one unknown factor. Unable to determine what it was, they gave up trying and just declared it random good luck.

    Seriously, that’s what they concluded. That, among other factors, had for several decades kept the US system (because that’s what they studied, not the global system) fortunate enough to have been spared the plague of financial crises that used to be regular features of the economic landscape.

    What these two concluded should have made monetary officials’ blood run cold:

    But because most of the reduction seems to be due to good luck in the form of smaller economic disturbances, we are left with the unsettling conclusion that the quiescence of the past fifteen years could well be a hiatus before a return to more turbulent economic times.

    Ben Bernanke read the piece and immediately went on a determined road-show to hog all the credit. Nonsense, he declared, it was the brand-new (the eighties) monetary policy regime (interest rate targeting, meaning expectations) that was responsible. No good luck, just Economists. Geniuses, every one.

    Looking back at it now, it is much easier to see for those who honestly seek some answers. Stepping outside the central bank cult, we find that Bernanke was right – it wasn’t good luck, after all – but desperately wrong in assigning the Fed its celebratory parade. A premature parade, obviously, as he would find out, but not figure out, just a few years later.

    Even 2007 had been forewarned. Though the US had been steered clear of financial crisis, the world hadn’t during this period. Smaller crises were still relatively common, and then a much bigger one in 1998. The Asian financial crisis was a regional dollar shortage, and contained, largely, within a region that wasn’t so enormous and important at the time, a test of the system that had developed from the seventies forward.

    It was this new global monetary arrangement that had kept the world within narrow tolerances, the US most of all. Not Greenspan and his ridiculous show of quarter-point fed funds adjustments, instead the supremacy of global eurodollar banks that had stapled LIBOR to fed funds and policed the entire hierarchy.

    The banks did the heavy money lifting for which central bankers like Greenspan and Bernanke were only too happy to take credit – while they could. So long as that hidden shadow money system in the world’s vast offshore spaces kept expanding it kept the forces of domestic and global monetary crashes at bay; not good luck but blindness.

    But the Asian flu had also been a key warning for what could happen. It showed the downside of a globalized economy dependent upon the quick and easy accessibility of (euro)dollars. So long as they are available, meaning banks not central banks, everything was hunky dory; Great Moderation and whatnot.

    Once they started to disappear in sufficient numbers, look the hell out!

    The warning, of course, went completely unheeded; Greenspan then Bernanke more interested in the vanity of interest rate targeting and all the media and academic adulation that came with it – one pattern, at least, unbroken all the way to Jay Powell, a curious trait of incuriosity about how nothing seems to work as planned ever since, oh, 2008 or so. No one bothered to check the assumptions, even after 1998 as well as Japan’s failures with QE in the early 2000’s.

    The world’s luck didn’t run out on August 9, 2007, the eurodollars did. Global dollar shortage. Ever since, it has been one global headache after another, some worse, some relatively mild. But scarcely a year has been put into the books without the words “global” “dollar” “shortage” and it hasn’t mattered one bit what the level of bank reserves were or had become during any of them.

    Rising dollar means dollar shortage (see below; particularly Norway’s currency).

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    As Europe’s ill-fated LTRO’s (which were exactly alike these Fed “repo” operations), the Fed doesn’t plug in to this system. They don’t even speak the right language.

    As I wrote back in 2017, amidst the hysteria and hype of the inflation globally synchronized growth was going to bring and the apparent return of good luck for that one year:

    It was never monetary policy that created the Great “Moderation”, and outside of the narrow confines of orthodox definitions that period was never so moderate to begin with. As the eurodollar system built up, it only appeared that way because output was stable so long as what was hidden far out of view remained drastically immoderate. Now that is no longer the case, where the eurodollar system reverses, decays, and acts as an anchor upon global output, there is no stability anywhere. Suddenly exogenous shocks (like “global turmoil”) are the rule rather than the exception where even the US economy is concerned.

    That about sums up 2020 so far, including the hapless Fed’s increasingly absurd flailing. Did the puppet show finally disappoint the last of its audience?


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 03/14/2020 – 21:50

  • Attention NHTSA: Second Tesla In A Week Has Plowed Through Storefront In Coachella Valley
    Attention NHTSA: Second Tesla In A Week Has Plowed Through Storefront In Coachella Valley

    We’re not sure what it’s going to take the NHTSA to establish some sort of pattern, but sadly, if they haven’t “gotten it” by now we’re not sure that they’re ever going to. And when people start dying from these types of accidents, there’s going to be a lot of blame to go around.

    Yet another Tesla has somehow wound up buried in yet another storefront. 

    In Palm Springs late last week a driver suffered minor injuries after “crashing a Tesla into a building”, according to the Palm Spring Desert Sun. Stop us if you’ve seen a photograph like this one before:

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    The car plowed through the front of Desert Vision Optometry, also causing minor injuries to an employee. The cause of the crash remains under investigation. The car crashed through the “front of the building” and “stopped in the lobby” according to reports. Workers in the building said that no one else was injured. 

    But even more noteworthy is the fact that this is the second time in a week that a Tesla has crashed through the front of the building in the Coachella Valley.

    On March 4, another driver, an elderly woman, plowed her Tesla through the front of Mastro’s Steakhouse in Palm Desert. 

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    The Palm Springs Fire Department Tweeted out video of the latest incident, showing the Tesla lodged in the storefront: 

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    While the cause of the first accident is still under investigation, what exactly is it going to take for regulators to start to notice this pattern, which is becoming egregious, and begin to ask pointed questions about why, every time we see a vehicle crash through a storefront in the United States, it just happens to be a Tesla. 

    We won’t hold our breath waiting for that to happen. 

     


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 03/14/2020 – 21:25

  • Price Of Physical Gold Decouples From Paper Gold
    Price Of Physical Gold Decouples From Paper Gold

    Submitted by BullionStar.com

    In the last month, from 14 February 2020 to 14 March 2020, we have seen a record number of orders, record order revenue and a record number of visits to our newly renovated and extended bullion centre at 45 New Bridge Road in Singapore.

    For the above-mentioned period, we have served 2,626 customers with a sales revenue of more than SGD 50 M, which is 477% higher compared to the same period last year.

    The last few days have been our busiest days of all time. Our staff members have been doing a fantastic job in going out of their way to serve as many customers as possible.

    With order volume increasing to this magnitude, it’s difficult for us to timely answer all phone and support requests but we are doing our very best to keep response times down.

    Gold & Silver Shortages – Supply Squeeze

    The enormous increase in demand is straining our supply chains. BullionStar has supplier relations with most of the major refineries, mints and wholesalers around the world. Most of our suppliers don’t have any stock of precious metals and are not taking orders currently. The U.S. Mint for example announced just this Thursday that American Silver Eagle coins are sold out. The large wholesalers in the U.S. are completely sold out of ALL gold and ALL silver and are not able to replenish.

    We are already sold out of several products and will sell out of additional products shortly if this supply squeeze continues. All products listed as “In Stock” on our website are available for immediate delivery. For items listed as “Pre-Sale”, the items have been ordered and paid by us with incoming shipments on the way to us.

    Paper Gold vs. Physical Gold

    As we have repeated frequently over the years, only physical gold is a safe haven.

    It’s noteworthy that the paper price of gold, although up 5.7% Year-to-Date denominated in SGD, has been trading downward in the last few days.

    Paper gold is traded on the unallocated OTC gold spot market in London and on the COMEX futures market in New York. Both of these markets are derivative markets and neither is connected to the physical gold market.

    This means that the physical gold market is a price taker, inheriting the price from the paper market, and that the derivative markets are the exclusive and dominant price makers. The entire market structure of this financialized gold trading is flawed. So while there is unprecedented demand for physical gold, this is not reflected in the gold price as derived by COMEX and the London unallocated spot market.

    By now it is abundantly clear that the physical gold market and paper gold market will disconnect.

    If the paper market does not correct this imbalance, widespread physical shortages of precious metals will be prolonged and may lead to the entire monetary system imploding.

    And with progressive central banks in Eastern Europe and Asia having stocked up on gold in the last three years, gold will likely be the anchor of the new monetary system arising out of the ashes.

    Mainstream media assertions that “Gold has been stripped of its Safe Haven Status” are utterly ridiculous and distorted beyond belief, when in fact the complete opposite is true. Unbacked paper gold and silver may be stripped of safe haven status, but certainly not real physical gold bullion.

    Physical Premiums & Spreads

    The current supply squeeze and physical bullion shortage has caused and is causing an increase in price premiums. It’s currently difficult and expensive for us to acquire any inventory. We have therefore had to increase premiums on products to compensate for the constraints. We have endeavoured to also raise our prices offered to customers selling to us, but with the extreme volatility and wild price fluctuations, the spread between the buy and sell price may temporarily be larger than normal. It is regrettable that premiums and spreads are larger than normal but it is outside our control that the paper market is not reflecting the demand and supply of the physical market. As many of you know, we are one of the largest critical voices of the LBMA run paper market and its bullion bank members in London.

    Please note that premiums are likely to be higher on weekends when the markets are closed compared to weekdays.

    We do not take lightly the decision to alter premiums but feel that it is a better alternative than to stop accepting orders altogether during weekends. Likewise it is a better alternative than to stop accepting orders when the paper gold market is in turmoil and failing to reflect the demand and supply realities of the physical bullion market.

    Currently, we are completely sold out on BullionStar Gold Bars, BullionStar Silver Bars and are running low on several other products which we are not able to replenish for now. Several stock items will therefore likely go out of stock shortly. This is despite us having been aggressively buying bullion to create a buffer reserve inventory.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 03/14/2020 – 21:00

  • Mexico Mulls Shutting Northern Border Over Virus Spread Threat
    Mexico Mulls Shutting Northern Border Over Virus Spread Threat

    Mexican Deputy Health Secretary Hugo Lopez-Gatell has considered shutting down its northern border with the US to limit the spread of Covid-19, reported Reuters. 

    “The possible flow of coronavirus would come from the north to the south. If it were technically necessary, we would consider mechanisms of restriction or stronger surveillance,” Lopez-Gatell told reporters on Thursday.

    The lack of test kits in Mexico and the US have made it difficult to get an accurate reading of community spreading in both countries. So far, Mexico has confirmed 16 cases and no deaths. The US has 2,174 cases and 47 deaths. 

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    Americas Covid-19 Virus Map 

    The World Health Organization declared Covid-19 a global pandemic last week, which has rapidly spread to more than 147,000 people from Asia to the Middle East, Europe, and now to the Americas. The virus has transformed the usual US-Mexico border dispute into another crisis, not because of migrants and drugs, but rather the fear of virus transmission. 

    Mexican health officials pointed out the fast-spreading virus in California could make its way through several land port of entries south of San Diego. In particular, the San Ysidro Land Port of Entry, the busiest land port in the Western Hemisphere. 

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    San Ysidro Port of Entry 

    President Trump tweeted last week, “We need the Wall more than ever!” Trump made similar comments during a political rally in South Carolina last month:

    “One of the reasons the numbers are so good: We will do everything in our power to keep the infection and those carrying the infection from entering our country,” he said. “You’ve all seen the wall has gone up like magic.”

    Last week, Trump tweeted, “because we have had a very strong border policy, we have had 40 deaths related to CoronaVirus. If we had weak or open borders, that number would be many times higher!”

    US ambassador to Mexico Christopher Landau said Thursday the virus outbreak is another reason for stricter border controls. 

    “For both countries, it doesn’t benefit us to have completely open borders,” Landau said. “We see it now with the virus, and hopefully we can work closely together because in health issues, political parties and borders aren’t important.”

    As virus cases and deaths rise in the US, the probabilities increase of a border shutdown or at least reduced travel through major land ports between both countries.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 03/14/2020 – 20:35

  • Doug Casey: The "Greater Depression" Is Coming
    Doug Casey: The “Greater Depression” Is Coming

    You’ve no doubt seen the headlines on CNN and Bloomberg.

    “Coronavirus Pandemic Could Spark a Global Depression.”

    “Will China Virus Trigger New Great Depression?”

    There’s plenty of concern that the coronavirus outbreak is pushing us toward a crash. And after the market’s recent dive, the panic is only growing. 

    Regular readers know Casey Research founder Doug Casey sees the next depression around the corner. But as he explains below, “government coercion” planted the seeds for a downturn long before the coronavirus appeared.

    And Doug’s predicting this “Greater Depression” will break records…

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    Authored by Doug Casey via CaseyResearch.com,

    Just because society experiences turmoil doesn’t mean your personal life has to. And a depression doesn’t have to be depressing. Most of the real wealth in the world will still exist – it will just change ownership.

    What is a depression?

    We’re now at the tail end of a very long, but in many ways a very weak and artificial, economic expansion. At the same time, we’ve had one of the strongest securities bull markets in history. Both are the result of trillions of new dollars created over the last decade. Right now, very few people are willing to consider the possibility of tough times – let alone The Greater Depression.

    But, perverse though it may seem, this is the very best time to think about it. The U.S. economy is a house of cards, built on quicksand, with a tsunami on the way. I urge everyone to read up on the topic. For now, I’ll only briefly touch on the nature of depressions. There are at least three good definitions of the term:

    1. A period of time when most people’s standard of living drops significantly.

    2. A period of time when distortions and misallocations of capital are liquidated.

    3. A period of time when the business cycle climaxes.

    Using the first definition, any natural disaster can cause a depression. So can living above your means for long enough. But the worst kind of depression has not just economic effects, but economic causes. That’s where definitions two and three come in.

    What can cause distortions in the way the market operates, causing people to do things they’d otherwise consider unreasonable or uneconomic? Only government action, i.e., coercion. This takes the form of regulation, taxes, and currency inflation.

    Always under noble pretexts, government is constantly directly and indirectly inducing people to buy and sell things they otherwise wouldn’t, to do things they’d prefer not to, and to invest in things that make no sense.

    These misallocations of capital subtly reduce a society’s general standard of living, but the serious trouble happens when such misallocations build up to an unsustainable degree and reality forces them into liquidation. The result is bankrupted companies, defaulted debt, and unemployed workers.

    The business cycle is caused mainly by currency inflation, which is accomplished today by the monetization of government debt through the banking system; essentially, when the government runs a deficit, the Federal Reserve buys its debt, and credits the government’s account at a commercial bank with dollars. Using the printing press to create new money is largely passé in today’s electronic world.

    Either way, inflation sends false signals to businessmen (especially those who get the money early on, as it filters through the economy), making them overestimate demand for their products. That causes them to hire more workers and make capital investments – often with borrowed money. This is called “stimulating the economy.”

    Inflating the currency can actually drive down interest rates for a while, because the price of money (interest) is lowered by the increased supply of money. This causes people to save less and borrow more, just as Americans have been doing for years. A lot of that newly created money goes into the stock market, driving it higher.

    It all looks pretty good, until retail prices start rising as a delayed consequence of the increased money supply, and interest rates skyrocket to reflect the depreciation of the currency.

    That’s when businesses start failing. Stocks fall. Bond prices collapse. Large numbers of workers lose employment.

    Rather than let the market adjust itself, government typically starts the process all over again with a new and larger “stimulus package.” The more often this happens, the more ingrained become the distortions in the way people consume and invest, and the nastier the eventual depression.

    This is why I predict the Greater Depression will be… well… greater. This is going to be one for the record books. Much different, much longer lasting, and much worse than the unpleasantness of 1929-1946.

    *  *  *

    As Doug said, the Greater Depression is on the horizon. Smart investors should start preparing now… and gold offers one of the best ways to protect your portfolio. That’s why you need to watch this short video, where Doug lays out exactly what’s happening in the gold market right now. And a shocking new rule – the first of its kind in 45 years – that’s putting gold back in international headlines. It’s already setting off a buying frenzy… a “gold panic” unlike anything we’ve seen since the early 1970s. Go here for the full story… including details on the five explosive gold stocks that are the best way to play this boom.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 03/14/2020 – 20:10

  • "More Violent, More Persistent": Market Fear Worse Now Than In 2008, Man Who Inspired VIX Says
    “More Violent, More Persistent”: Market Fear Worse Now Than In 2008, Man Who Inspired VIX Says

    The academic best known for coming up with the idea of the VIX – also know as Wall Street’s fear gauge – says that the fear looming over the markets now is far greater than the fear we faced in 2008. 

    Dan Galai, a professor at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem told Bloomberg:

     “The level of uncertainty is even beyond what we saw in 2008 immediately after Lehman Brothers collapsed.”

    Galai continued: 

    “If you look at 2008, it spiked and then within a day or two, it was going down very fast. Here, it’s been steadily going up instead of going down. It’s more violent, and it’s more persistent.”

    The VIX is an indicator of expected near-term swings in the S&P 500 and has closed above 45 for four days in a row, which is the longest streak of this kind since 2009. It closed on Friday at 63, despite stocks spiking during the last half hour of trading. The VIX spiked up to 76 on Thursday, as stocks experienced the largest one day drop since October 1987.

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    Galai notes that monetary response likely won’t do much to stave off the problem.

     “I don’t think interest rates have any effect right now. Monetary steps, in my view, are completely redundant,” he said.

      Galai had proposed using gauges to measure volatility in 1989 and his proposal led to the CBOE VIX. Galai likens strategies that short volatility – including one that buried a Credit Suisse short-volatility note in 2018, as a “substitute for Las Vegas”. 

      Now you tell us…


      Tyler Durden

      Sat, 03/14/2020 – 19:45

    1. Tverberg: It Is Easy To Overdo Covid-19 Quarantines
      Tverberg: It Is Easy To Overdo Covid-19 Quarantines

      Authored by Gail Tverberg via Our Finite World blog,

      We have learned historically that if we can isolate sick people, we can often keep a communicable disease from spreading.

      Unfortunately, the situation with the new coronavirus causing COVID-19 is different: We can’t reliability determine which people are spreading the disease. Furthermore, the disease seems to transmit in many different ways simultaneously.

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      Politicians and health organizations like to show that they are “doing something.” Because of the strange nature of COVID-19, however, doing something is mostly a time-shifting exercise: With quarantines and other containment efforts, there will be fewer cases now, but this will be mostly or entirely offset by more cases later. Whether time-shifting reduces deaths and eases hospital care depends upon whether medical advances are sufficiently great during the time gained to improve outcomes.

      We tend to lose sight of the fact that an economy cannot simply be shut down for a period and then start up again at close to its former level of production. China seems to have seriously overdone its use of quarantines. It seems likely that its economy can never fully recover. The permanent loss of a significant part of China’s productive output seems likely to send the world economy into a tailspin, regardless of what other economies do.

      Before undertaking containment efforts of any kind, decision-makers need to look carefully at several issues:

      • Laying-off workers, even for a short time, severely adversely affects the economy.

      • The expected length of delay in cases made possible by quarantines is likely to be very short, sometimes lasting not much longer than the quarantines themselves.

      • We seem to need a very rapid improvement in our ability to treat COVID-19 cases for containment efforts to make sense, if we cannot stamp out the disease completely.

      Because of these issues, it is very easy to overdo quarantines and other containment efforts.

      In the sections below, I explain some parts of this problem.

      [1] The aim of coronavirus quarantines is mostly to slow down the spread of the virus, not to stop its spread.

      As a practical matter, it is virtually impossible to stop the spread of the new coronavirus.

      In order to completely stop its spread, we would need to separate each person from every other person, as well as from possible animal carriers, for something like a month. In this way, people who are carriers for the disease or actually have the disease would hopefully have time to get over their illnesses. Perhaps airborne viruses would dissipate and viruses on solid surfaces would have time to deteriorate.

      This clearly could not work. People would need to be separated from their children and pets. All businesses, including food sales, would have to stop. Electricity would likely stop, especially in areas where storms bring down power lines. No fuel would be available for vehicles of any kind. If a home catches fire, the fire would need to burn until a lack of material to burn stops it. If a baby needs to be delivered, there would be no midwife or hospital services available. If a person happened to have an appendicitis, it would simply need to resolve itself at home, however that worked out.

      Bigger groups could in theory be quarantined together, but then the length of time for the quarantine would need to be greatly lengthened, to account for the possibility that one person might catch the disease from someone else in the group. The bigger the group; the longer the chain might continue. A group might be a single family sharing a home; it could also be a group of people in an apartment building that shares a common ventilating system.

      [2] An economy is in many ways like a human being or other animal. Its operation cannot be stopped for a month or more, without bringing the economy to an end. 

      I sometimes write about the economy being a self-organizing networked system that is powered by energy. In physics terms, the name for such a system is a dissipative structure. Human beings are dissipative structures, as are hurricanes and stars, such as the sun.

      Human beings cannot stop eating and breathing for a month. They cannot have sleep apnea for an hour at a time, and function afterward.

      Economies cannot stop functioning for a month and afterward resume operations at their previous level. Too many people will have lost their jobs; too many businesses will have failed in the meantime. If the closures continue for two or three months, the problem becomes very serious. We are probably kidding ourselves if we think that China can come back to the same level that it was at before the new coronavirus hit.

      In a way, keeping an economy operating is as important as preventing deaths from COVID-19. Without food, water and wage-producing jobs (which allow people to buy necessary goods and services), the deaths from the loss of the economy would be far greater than the direct deaths from the coronavirus.

      [3] A reasonable guess is that nearly all of us will face multiple exposures to the new coronavirus. 

      Many people are hoping that this wave of the coronavirus will be stopped by warmer weather, perhaps in May or June. We don’t know whether this will happen or not. If the coronavirus does stop, there is a good chance the same virus, or a close variation of it, will be back again this fall. It is likely to come back in waves later, for at least one more year. In fact, if no vaccine is found, it is possible that it could come back, in various variations, indefinitely. There are many things we simply don’t know with certainty at this time.

      Epidemiologists talk about the spread of a virus being stopped at the community immunity level. Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch originally estimated that 40% to 70% of the world’s population would come down with COVID-19 within the first year. He has revised this and now states that it is plausible that 20% to 60% of the world’s population will catch the disease in that timeframe. He also indicates that if the virus cannot be contained, the only way to get it under control is for 50% of the world’s population to become immune to it.

      The big issue with containing the coronavirus is that we cannot really tell who has it and who does not. The tests available for COVID-19 are expensive, so giving the test to everyone, frequently, makes no sense. The tests tend to give a many false negatives, so even when they are given, they don’t necessarily detect people with the disease. There are also many people who seem to spread the disease without symptoms. Without testing everyone, these people will never be found.

      We hear limited statements such as “The United States surgeon general said Sunday that he thinks the coronavirus outbreak is being contained in certain areas of the country as cases of the virus rise across the United States.” Unfortunately, containment of the virus in a few parts of the world does not solve the general problem. There are lots and lots of uncontained cases around the world. These uncontained cases will continue to spread, regardless of the steps taken elsewhere.

      Furthermore, even when we think the virus is contained, there are likely to be missed cases, especially among people who seem to be well, but who really are carriers. Getting rid of the virus is likely to be a major challenge.

      [4] There is an advantage to delaying citizens from catching COVID-19. The delay allows doctors to learn which existing medications can be used to help treat the symptoms of the disease.

      There seem to be multiple drugs and multiple therapies that work to some limited extent.

      For example, plasma containing antibodies from a person who has already had the illness can be injected into a person with the disease, helping to fight the disease. It is not clear, however, whether such a treatment will protect against future attacks of the virus since the patient is being cured without his own immune system producing adequate antibodies.

      Some HIV drugs are being examined to see whether they work well enough for it to make sense to ramp up production of them. The antiviral drug remdesivir by Gilead Sciences also seems to have promise. For these drugs to be useful in fighting COVID-19, production would need to be ramped up greatly.

      In theory, there is also a possibility that a vaccine can be brought to market that will get rid of the virus. Our past experience with vaccine-making has not been very good, however. Out of 200+ virus-caused diseases that affect humans, only about 20 have vaccines. These vaccines generally need to be updated frequently, because viruses tend to mutate over time.

      With some viruses, such as Dengue Fever, people don’t ever build up adequate immunity to the many disease variations that exist. Instead a person who catches Dengue Fever a second time is likely to be sicker than the first time. Finding a vaccine for such diseases seems to be almost impossible.

      Even if we can actually succeed in making a vaccine that works, the expectation seems to be that this will take at least 12 to 18 months. By this time, the world may have experienced multiple waves of COVID-19.

      [5] There are multiple questions regarding how well European Countries, Japan and the United States will really be able to treat coronavirus.

      There are several issues involved:

      (a) Even if medicines are identified, can they be ramped up adequately in the short time available?

      (b) China’s exports have dropped significantly. Required medical goods that we normally import from China may not be available. The missing items could be as simple as rubbing alcohol, masks and other protective wear. The missing items could also be antibiotics, antidepressants, and blood pressure medications that are needed for both COVID-19 patients and other patients.

      (c) Based on my calculations, the number of hospital beds and ICU beds needed will likely exceed those available (without kicking out other patients) by at least a factor of 10, if the size of the epidemic grows. There will also be a need for more medical staff. Medical staff may be fewer, rather than more, because many of them will be out sick with the virus. Because of these issues, the amount of hospital-based care that can actually be provided to COVID-19 patients is likely to be fairly limited.

      (d) One reason for time-shifting of illnesses has been to try to better match illnesses with medical care available. The main benefit I can see is the fact that many health care workers will have contracted the illness in the first wave of the disease, so will be more available to give care in later waves of the disease. Apart from this difference, the system will be badly overwhelmed, regardless of when COVID-19 cases occur.

      [6] A major issue, both with COVID-19 illnesses and with quarantines arising out of fear of illness, is wage loss. 

      If schools and day care centers are closed because of COVID-19 fears, many of the parents will have to take off time from work to care for the children. These parent will likely lose wages.

      Wage loss will also be a problem if quarantines are required for people returning from an area that might be affected. For example, immigrant workers in China wanting to return to work in major cities after the New Year’s holiday have been quarantined for 14 days after they return.

      Clearly, expenses (such as rent, food and auto payments) will continue, both for the mother of the child who is at home because a child’s school is closed and for the migrant worker who wants to return to a job in the city. Their lack of wages will mean that these people will make fewer discretionary purchases, such as visiting restaurants and making trips to visit relatives. In fact, migrant workers, when faced with a 14 day quarantine, may decide to stay in the countryside. If they don’t earn very much in the best of times, and they are required to go 14 days without pay after they return, there may not be much incentive to return to work.

      If I am correct that the illness COVID-19 will strike in several waves, these same people participating in quarantines will have another “opportunity” for wage loss when they actually contract the disease, during one of these later rounds. Unless there is a real reduction in the number of people who ultimately get COVID-19 because of quarantines, a person would expect that the total wage loss would be greater with quarantines than without, because the wage loss occurs twice instead of once.

      Furthermore, businesses will suffer financially when their workers are out. With fewer working employees, businesses will likely be able to produce fewer finished goods and services than in the past. At the same time, their fixed expenses (such as mortgage payments, insurance payments, and the cost of heating buildings) will continue. This mismatch is likely to lead to lower profits at two different times: (a) when workers are out because of quarantines and (b) when they are out because they are ill.

      [7] We likely can expect a great deal more COVID-19 around the world, including in China and in Italy, in the next two years.

      The number of reported COVID-19 cases to date is tiny, compared to the number that is expected based on estimates by epidemiologists. China reports about 81,000 COVID-19 cases to date, while its population is roughly 1.4 billion. If epidemiologists tell us to expect 20% to 60% of a country’s population to be affected by the end of the first year of the epidemic, this would correspond to a range of 280 million to 840 million cases. The difference between reported cases and expected cases is huge. Reported cases to date are less than 0.01% of the population.

      We know that China’s reported number of cases is an optimistically low number, but we don’t know how low. Many, many more cases are expected in the year ahead if workers go back to work. In fact, there have been recent reports of a COVID-19 outbreak in Shenzhen and Guangzhou, near Hong Kong. Such an outbreak would adversely affect China’s manufactured exports.

      Italy has a similar situation. It is currently reported to have somewhat more than 10,000 cases. Its total population is about 60 million. Thus, its number of cases amounts to about 0.02% of the population. If Epidemiologist Lipsitch is correct regarding the percentage of the population that is ultimately likely to be affected, the number of cases in Italy, too, can be expected to be much higher within the next year. Twenty percent of a population of 60 million would amount to 12 million cases; 60% of the population would amount to 36 million cases.

      [8] When decisions about quarantines are made, the expected wage loss when workers lose their jobs needs to be considered as well. 

      Let’s calculate the amount of wage loss from actually having COVID-19. If workers generally work for 50 weeks a year and are out sick for an average of 2 weeks because of COVID-19, the average worker would lose 4% (=2/50) of his annual wages. If workers are out sick for an average of three weeks, this would increase the loss to 6% (3/50) of the worker’s annual wages.

      Of course, not all workers will be affected by the new coronavirus. If we are expecting 20% to 60% of the workers to be out sick during the first year of the that the epidemic cycles through the economy, the expected overall wage loss for the population as a whole would amount to 0.8% (=20% times 4%) to 3.6% (=60% times 6%) of total wages.

      Let’s now calculate the wage loss from a quarantine. A week of wage loss during a quarantine of the entire population, while nearly everyone is well, would lead to a wage loss equal to 2% of the population’s total wages. Two weeks of wage loss during quarantine would lead to wage loss equal to 4% of the population’s total wages.

      Is it possible to reduce overall wage loss and deaths by using quarantines? This approach works for diseases which can actually be stopped through isolating sick members, but I don’t think it works well at all for COVID-19. Mostly, it provides a time-shifting feature. There are fewer illnesses earlier, but to a very significant extent, this is offset by more illnesses later.  This time-shifting feature might be helpful if there really is a substantial improvement in prevention or treatment that is quickly available. For example, if a vaccine that really works can be found quickly, such a vaccine might help prevent some of the illnesses and deaths in 2021 and following years.

      If there really isn’t an improvement in preventing the disease, then we get back to the situation where the virus needs to be stopped based on community immunity. According to Lipsitch, to stop the virus based on community immunity, at least 50% of the population would need to become immune. This implies that somewhat more than 50% of the population would need to catch the new coronavirus, because some people would catch the new virus and die, either of COVID-19 or of another diseases.

      Let’s suppose that 55% would need to catch the COVID-19 to allow the population immunity to rise to 50%. The virus would likely need to keep cycling around until at least this percentage of the population has caught the disease. This is not much of a decrease from the upper limit of 60% during the first year. This suggests that moving illnesses to a later year may not help much at all with respect to the expected number of illnesses and deaths. Hospitals will be practically equally overwhelmed regardless, unless we can somehow change the typical seasonality of viruses and move some of the winter illnesses to summertime.

      If there is no improvement in COVID-19 prevention/treatment during the time-shift of cases created by the quarantine, any quarantine wage loss can be thought of as being simply in addition to wage loss from having the virus itself. Thus, a country that opts for a two week quarantine of all workers (costing 4% of workers’ wages) may be more than doubling the direct wage loss from COVID-19 (equivalent to 0.8% to 3.6% of workers’ wages).

      [9] China’s shutdown in response to COVID-19 doesn’t seem to make much rational sense.

      It is hard to understand exactly how much China has shut down, but the shutdown has gone on for about six weeks. At this point, it is not clear that China can ever come back to the level it was at previously. Clearly, the combination of wage loss for individuals and profit loss for companies is very high. The long shutdown is likely to lead to widespread debt defaults. With less wages, there is likely to be less demand for goods such as cars and cell phones during 2020.

      China was having difficulty before the new coronavirus was discovered to be a problem. Its energy production has slowed greatly, starting about 2012-2013, making it necessary for China to start shifting from a goods-producing nation to a country that is more of a services-producer (Figure 1).

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      Figure 1. China energy production by fuel, based on 2019 BP Statistical Review of World Energy data. “Other Ren” stands for “Renewables other than hydroelectric.” This category includes wind, solar, and other miscellaneous types, such as sawdust burned for electricity.

      For example, China’s workers now put together iPhones using parts made in other countries, rather than making iPhones from start to finish. This part of the production chain requires relatively little fuel, so it is in some sense more like a service than the manufacturing of parts for the phone.

      The rest of the world has been depending upon China to be a major supplier within its supply lines. Perhaps many of these supply lines will be broken indefinitely. Instead of China helping pull the world economy along faster, we may be faced with a situation in which China’s reduced output leads to worldwide economic contraction rather than economic growth.

      Without medicines from China, our ability to fight COVID-19 may get worse over time, rather than better. In such a case, it would be better to get the illness now, rather than later.

      [10] We need to be examining proposed solutions closely, in the light of the particulars of the new coronavirus, rather than simply assuming that fighting COVID-19 to the death is appropriate.

      The instructions we hear today seem to suggest using disinfectants everywhere, to try to prevent COVID-19. This is yet another way to try to push off infections caused by the coronavirus into the future. We know, however, that there are good microbes as well as bad ones. The ecosystem requires a balance of microbes. Dumping disinfectants everywhere has its downside, as well as the possibility of an upside of killing the current round of coronaviruses. In fact, to the extent that the virus is airborne, the disinfectants may not really be very helpful in wiping out COVID-19.

      It is very easy to believe that if some diseases can be subdued by quarantines, the same approach will work everywhere. This really isn’t true. We need to be examining the current situation closely, based on whatever information is available, before decisions are made regarding how to deal with the COVID-19 outbreak. Perhaps any quarantines used need to be small and targeted.

      We also need to be looking for new approaches for fighting COVID-19. One approach that is not being used significantly to date is trying to strengthen people’s own immune systems. Such an approach might help people’s own immune system to fight off the disease, thereby lowering death rates. Nutrition experts recommend supplementing diets with Vitamins A, C, E, antioxidants and selenium. Other experts say zinc, Vitamin D and elderberry may be helpful. Staying away from cold temperatures also seems to be important. Drinking plenty of water after coming down with the disease may be beneficial as well. If we can help people’s own bodies fight the disease, the burden on the medical system will be lower.


      Tyler Durden

      Sat, 03/14/2020 – 19:20

    2. Brawls Erupt As Americans Panic Hoard Supplies Amid Pandemic  
      Brawls Erupt As Americans Panic Hoard Supplies Amid Pandemic  

      So, this week, panic hoarding at Costco stores and other big-box retailers got a little more serious when it started on Thursday. Mostly because confirmed Covid-19 cases and deaths are surging across the country, as many fear, increasing coronavirus test kits made available to the public would reveal the true extent of the outbreak. Mass gatherings in many states are starting to be limited, education systems are closing down, and the federal government is now starting to enforce social distancing policies for all citizens, this all suggests, that an Italy-style lockdown could be on the horizon.

      Anxieties are increasing this week as brawls have been reported at several big-box retailers. It was unclear what customers were fighting about. 

      Here’s footage on Thursday of a fight between two customers at a Brooklyn Costco.   

       A Sam’s Club customer on Thursday was stabbed with a wine bottle over a pack of water in Hiram, Georgia. 

      Local police at a Costco in Lynnwood, Washington, were keeping order on Saturday as hundreds of customers wrapped around the building, due to new social distancing policies that only allowed a certain amount of people in the store at one given time. 

      A longline developed outside the Ann Arbor, Michigan Costco on Saturday. 

      Now, this is crazy, a huge line extending down a street of people trying to get into La Habra, California Costco. 

      At an undisclosed Costco, apparently all the chicken is gone. 

      Shelves are bare at a Walmart.

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      A Target in Cincinnati, Ohio, limited customers to products on Saturday morning. 

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      Toilet paper supply at a Cincinnati, Ohio was out on Friday evening. 

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      All the fruit is gone at a supermarket in New Jersey around 5 pm Saturday. 

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      Customers clearing shelves at another Costco in California. 

      Once the food runs out at grocery stores, consumers will start panic hoarding guns – oh wait, that’s already happening… 

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      Tyler Durden

      Sat, 03/14/2020 – 18:55

    3. Covid-19 Impacting US Defense Readiness As Pentagon Announces "Minimal Staffing"
      Covid-19 Impacting US Defense Readiness As Pentagon Announces “Minimal Staffing”

      The Pentagon on Saturday afternoon said it has moved toward “minimal staffing” over coronavirus fears a day after President Trump formally declared a national emergency. CBS national security correspondent Cami McCormick broke the news, describing: 

      Defense Dept. officials have raised alert level at the Pentagon to Bravo. There will now be “minimal staffing” at the Pentagon due to coronavirus.

      Crucially this alert level refers to staffing levels and virus precautionary measures only and is not a reference to DEFCON, which is the national defense readiness condition used to gauge military threats. 

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      AFP via Getty

      However, as we reported earlier there’s growing concern that the Covid-19 pandemic could significantly impact US defense readiness.

      Indeed it appears this is already occurring. Pentagon correspondent for Al Monitor Jack Detsch reports there’s growing confirmed cases among the military and DoD ranks: 

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      CBS’ McCormick additionally reported based on Pentagon officials that “in the next couple of days, the Pentagon may limit the exposure to take out food…tables, buffet lines, etc. inside the Pentagon” over virus outbreak fears. 

      Approximately 23,000 military and civilian DoD employees work at the Pentagon daily, which includes offices of the top generals among combined branches and the Secretary of Defense. The building famously has five ring corridors per floor which make for a total of 17.5 miles of hallways with endless offices lining each side. 

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      This comes on the heels of late Friday the Department of Defense restricting all US troop movement in the United States to the “local area” of their assigned bases effective Monday. 

      “This restriction will halt all domestic travel, including Permanent Change of Station, and Temporary Duty,” said a press statement released with the memo as reported by Defense One. “Additionally, service members will be authorized local leave only.”

      The new directives come among broader national efforts to slow the spread of Covid-19 which included Trump’s national ‘State of Emergency’ declared Friday, but at a moment of concern that the virus could devastate densely-packed military barracks and severely impact US defense readiness. 

      The novel virus “could knock units out of commission for weeks,” writes Army Special Forces veteran and national security journalist Jack Murphy. However, he also adds: “The military is unlikely to be hit by COVID-19 as hard as the general population because the virus particularly affects the sick and elderly according to the Center for Disease Control.”

      Currently, some National Guard units have begun deploying in ‘hot zones’ like a community in New Rochelle, in order to assist with quarantines and food and medical supplies delivery.


      Tyler Durden

      Sat, 03/14/2020 – 18:30

    4. "No State Is Prepared" – Mapping Where Hospitals Will Run Out Of Beds First If Virus Cases Spike
      “No State Is Prepared” – Mapping Where Hospitals Will Run Out Of Beds First If Virus Cases Spike

      A USA Today analysis of American Hospital Association (AHA) hospital bed data shows that if confirmed Covid-19 cases and deaths follow similar growth curves as in China, Italy, and Iran, there could be six patients for every existing hospital bed. This means that no hospital system in the US is prepared for a pandemic. 

      “Unless we are able to implement dramatic isolation measures like some places in China, we’ll be presented with overwhelming numbers of coronavirus patients – two to 10 times as we see at peak influenza times,” said Dr. James Lawler, an infectious disease researcher at the University of Nebraska Medical Center. 

      Lawler warned that “no hospital has the current capacity to absorb” a massive surge of Covid-19 infections.

      USA Today estimates that 23.8 million Americans could be infected. That number is based on an infection rate of 7.4%, similar to the common flu. Some experts say the infection rate could be much higher.

      The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security says infections could hit 38 million, including 9.6 million who will need to be hospitalized, and about 33% of whom would need ICU-level care.

      With an infection rate unclear, USA Today’s analysis used that of a mild flu season. It said if everyone in the US who gets infected is hospitalized, that would be 4.7 million patients, which is about 6 per every hospital bed.

      The fast-spreading virus could overwhelm the US’ healthcare system if confirmed cases and deaths surge in a 2-3-week period, as it did in China, Italy, and Iran. Currently, Italy’s health care system has been crippled with the lack of hospital beds and respirators. The result of not providing ICU-level treatment to the most critical patients has resulted in the country’s extraordinarily high 6.8% mortality rate. 

      The doomsday scenario that could play out in the US is an overburden healthcare system, where the most vulnerable cannot get ICU-level treatment, leading to a mortality rate comparable to Italy.

      “When hospitals become much more crowded, literally stretched beyond capacity, if I have a heart attack, will I be able to get care? If I have an auto accident, will I get care? How do we triage that?” said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. “We can’t approach this like I approach a game of checkers with my 10-year-old grandson,” he added. “We have to approach this like a chess master thinking 10 to 15 moves down the board.”

      Many hospital systems across the US aren’t designed to handle a mass influx of patients from a viral outbreak, indicating that no state is ready for a pandemic.

      During the next outbreak, USA Today notes that many West Coast states would experience 20-24 seriously ill patients per available hospital bed. The odds of getting a bed are significantly higher in Rocky Mountain and Plains states. As for the East Coast, sick patients in Maryland and Connecticut would have the most difficulty in obtaining a bed.

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      When it comes to the rest of the world, the US ranks very low in the number of hospital beds per 1000. 

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      As for ICU beds per 100,000, the US ranks the highest among the global community. 

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      USA Today’s analysis assumes confirmed cases would happen over time, but if observing data from China, Italy, and Iran, Covid-19 outbreaks tend to strike hard and quick. Considering confirmed cases in the US are a little over 2,500 on Saturday afternoon, containment measures for all major metro areas have been missed by over a month. It’s only now preventive strategies to mitigate community spreading are being implemented, and even then, most people are ignoring the warnings to conduct social distancing, which all means cases are likely to increase in the coming weeks. 

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      “Whenever you have an outbreak that you can start seeing community spread … when you have enough of that, then it becomes a situation where you’re not going to be able to effectively and efficiently contain it,” Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told a House committee Wednesday. “Bottom line, it’s going to get worse,” Fauci said.

      How much worse is the billion-dollar question. As far as what we can see, the peak crisis has yet to arrive. Containment windows have been missed across major metros, implying that hospital systems could begin experiencing an influx of cases in the weeks ahead. If hospitals get overwhelmed, the US could be the next Italy with high mortality rates. 


      Tyler Durden

      Sat, 03/14/2020 – 18:05

    5. Governments Fast Reverting To Wartime Tactics & Rhetoric For Coronavirus
      Governments Fast Reverting To Wartime Tactics & Rhetoric For Coronavirus

      Authored by Jason Ditz via AntiWar.com,

      A global pandemic of the coronavirus is hitting nations the world over, and facing a challenge unprecedented in recent history, officials are falling back on wartime tactics, and particularly rhetoric, with promises of grand emergency measures to try to keep things under control.

      Emergency measures are mostly in the form of travel control, banning flights to and from certain places. There have been talks of mobilizing militaries, in practice efforts are centered on enforcing quarantines that were already declared. Deeper measures as yet don’t seem to be happening.

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      Via ABC News

      France’s President Macron typified the rhetoric of the hour, saying that national greatness meant “women and men able to put the collective interest above all,” while encouraging solidarity and fraternity.

      In the US too this state of emergency is mostly just travel bans, though the Pentagon has halted domestic travel beyond local areas for both troops and their dependents. The US is also scaling back involvement in European operations to come.

      Today, National Guard soldiers deployed inside New Rochelle’s coronavirus containment zone will receive their operations order, issuing further instructors on how to proceed in the coming days. 

      Currently, National Guard Military Police and other support units are inside the containment zone providing food and assisting with cleaning public areas inside the zone.

      On Tuesday Gov. Andrew Cuomo of New York announced a one-mile containment zone around the Young Israel of New Rochelle synagogue in New Rochelle where there has been a cluster of COVID-19 cases. — Connecting Vets

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

      Those operations, a multinational exercise, was meant to be the biggest US involvement there in decades. Officials are now citing “health protection” as a reason to dial back involvement.

      For the US, the military isn’t exactly in a position to lead by example. In Afghanistan, the Pentagon is conceding that there are US troops with symptoms, but none have been tested. The reason why is simple: the Pentagon doesn’t have tests to administer.


      Tyler Durden

      Sat, 03/14/2020 – 17:40

    6. Ed Snowden: "Social Distancing Is Underrated"
      Ed Snowden: “Social Distancing Is Underrated”

      In light of the World Health Organization (WHO) finally designating the Covid-19 outbreak seen in 113 countries and territories around the world as a pandemic, the debate this week of “social distancing” has erupted across social media and on Western mainstream media outlets..

      The idea is that by canceling schools and large public gatherings, coupled with workers working online from home, there will be a reduction of coronavirus community spread, reducing the peak in the number of cases and put less stress on the limited resources of the medical community.  This is illustrated by the figures below.  You notice the number of cases doesn’t change (the area under the curve). 

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      But, it has another issue:  it greatly extends the period in which society is affected by the disease.

      However, NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden tweeted Wednesday that “Social distancing is underrated,” as it appears this life-saving measure could be implemented across the US as confirmed virus cases and deaths soar. 

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

      Experts at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have suggested social distancing could be a very effective way to limit exposure to the fast-spreading virus. 

      The CDC’s recommendation for what social distancing involves is to avoid mass gatherings, stay out of heavily-trafficked areas, and maintain a safe distance from one another to limit transmission. This is different than quarantine or isolation that completely bans people from public places. Social distancing is more of a behavioral practice to limit transmission probabilities while out in public, rather than a location constraint seen under a quarantine. 

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      “Social distancing is a very general term, so there are a bunch of different types of measures that can fall under it,” Dr. Susy Hota, an Infectious Diseases Specialist and Hospital Epidemiologist at the University of Toronto’s research hospital University Health Network told the Time. 

      Hota said people choosing to work at home instead of the office would be considered social distancing. “All of these measures are trying to achieve the same thing… but [with] slightly different tactics and slightly different nuances.”

      She said social distancing does have its problems, including when traveling on public transportation, accessing public services like post offices, going to the grocery store, and even attending worship service. Though even then, if social distancing and good hygiene practices are implemented, they can easily cut down their probabilities of contracting the airborne virus without too much disruption in life. 

      “Those are behaviors we all have to start practicing now in parts [of the world] where we don’t have to enact additional measures,” she said.

      As government officials urge Americans this week to exercise social distancing measures to mitigate virus spread. The search interest on the internet for “social distancing” has erupted: 

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      Max Brooks, the author of a zombie apocalypse book, argued in The New York Times that the “best way to prevent ‘community spread’ is to spread out the community. That means keeping people apart.” 

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

      KING 5 News Seattle’s Michelle Li tweeted that the best way to avoid spreading is to keep the distance from everyone. 

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

      Snowden’s support for social distancing is strongly supported by evidence from the Spanish Flu Epidemic. A little over one hundred years ago, during the Spanish flu, Philadelphia held a massive parade across the city – ignoring warnings from health officials of a virus outbreak. Three days later, thousands were infected, and in a few short days, 4,500 were dead. It was a different story in St. Louis, just 900 miles away, where local officials listened to health experts and told people to keep their distance from one another and avoid public places. 

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      Which looks eerily similar to the current virus spread with China limited (full social distancing) vs the Rest of the World (which has been slow to enact such authoritarian measures).

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      However, there’s a problem developing with today’s coronavirus outbreak in the US – as per Dr. Michael Osterholm, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota, who warned on CNBC earlier this week, that the window of suppressing the virus in hardest-hit areas, such as King County, Washington; Santa Clara, California; Los Angeles; and the Tri-state area, has likely passed, suggesting that maybe social distancing isn’t going to be enough – but rather lockdowns are imminent.


      Tyler Durden

      Sat, 03/14/2020 – 17:15

    7. "The Damage Is Not Theoretical" – It's Deep, Global, & Pervasive
      “The Damage Is Not Theoretical” – It’s Deep, Global, & Pervasive

      Authored by Sven Henrich via NorthmanTrader.com,

      We just witnessed a global collapse in asset prices the likes we haven’t seen before. Not even in 2008 or 2000. All these prior beginnings of bear markets happened over time, relatively slowly at first, then accelerating to the downside.

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      This collapse here has come from some of the historically most stretched valuations ever setting the stage for the biggest bull trap ever. The coronavirus that no one could have predicted is brutally punishing investors that complacently bought into the multiple expansion story that was sold to them by Wall Street. Technical signals that outlined trouble way in advance were ignored while the Big Short 2 was already calling for a massive explosion in $VIX way before anybody ever heard of corona virus.

      Worse, there is zero visibility going forward as nobody knows how to price in collapsing revenues and earnings amid entire countries shutting down virtually all public gatherings and activities. Denmark just shut down all of its borders on Friday, flight cancellations everywhere, the planet is literally shutting down in unprecedented fashion.

      The message is clear:

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

      The question is not if, but how long and deep:

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

      The damage is not theoretical, it’s real as we just saw the fasted collapse in asset prices in history:

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      And it’s global, deep and pervasive.

      $FTSE collapse to lows from 8 years ago:

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      $DAX collapsed from all time highs to the lows from 2016:

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      The US broader $NYSE dropped to below the US election lows of 2016:

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      Absolute carnage to investor portfolios who can only be assumed to have caught by total surprise by the severity of the 2020 market crash. The buy the dip mentality so pervasive over the last 11 years have come to a sudden end: Death by impact.

      The damage is pervasive and structurally impacting. Trapped longs looking for rescue and salvation with confidence taking a major hit. And the only hope now are technically massive oversold readings, a Fed desperate trying to regain control and a desperate search for signs that the coronavirus situation can be brought under control.

      Central bank efforts over the past 2 weeks have been a miserable failure and emergency rate cuts have not been able to stem the tide of system selling and liquidations. Until Friday that is perhaps. The Fed resorted to unprecedented and some may say pathetically desperate efforts to stem the bleeding by announcing $500B repos including a $1 trillion repo on Friday.

      To put these numbers in perspective:

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

      There is no precedence for the situation we are facing now. An epic battle of humanity trying to combat a new virus for which there is no cure and still no all clear signal, a global asset price collapse at the end of an aging and highly indebted business cycle and central banks with limited ammunition desperately trying to regain and maintain control.

      And this week the Fed is on tap to prove it can still reassert control. Already now expected to cut rates to zero large scale asset purchases and a relaunch of full QE is perhaps only a question of when and not if. Given the current state of markets perhaps the Fed can’t afford to wait. So this coming week is key for markets and a Fed whose credibility is already on the ropes.

      It’s a very difficult environment for investors and traders as the action is whipsawing more intensely than we’ve ever seen before.

      But technicals help us to guide us through the challenge. Even Friday’s record bounce rally was in the technical picture.

      What are the risks of a major bear market yet to come and what are the rally opportunities?

      For our analysis please see this weekend’s market review video:

      *  *  *

      Please be sure to watch it in HD for clarity. To get notified of future videos feel free to subscribe to our YouTube Channel. For the latest public analysis please visit NorthmanTrader. To subscribe to our market products please visit Services.


      Tyler Durden

      Sat, 03/14/2020 – 16:50

    Digest powered by RSS Digest

    Mar 14

    Today’s News 14th March 2020

    • "Covid-19 Is An Exponential Threat" – Why Global Politicians & Business Leaders Must Act Now
      “Covid-19 Is An Exponential Threat” – Why Global Politicians & Business Leaders Must Act Now

      Authored by Tomas Pueyo via Medium.com,

      With everything that’s happening about the Coronavirus, it might be very hard to make a decision of what to do today. Should you wait for more information? Do something today? What?

      Here’s what I’m going to cover in this article, with lots of charts, data and models with plenty of sources:

      • How many cases of coronavirus will there be in your area?

      • What will happen when these cases materialize?

      • What should you do?

      • When?

      When you’re done reading the article, this is what you’ll take away:

      • The coronavirus is coming to you.

      • It’s coming at an exponential speed: gradually, and then suddenly.

      • It’s a matter of days. Maybe a week or two.

      • When it does, your healthcare system will be overwhelmed.

      • Your fellow citizens will be treated in the hallways.

      • Exhausted healthcare workers will break down. Some will die.

      • They will have to decide which patient gets the oxygen and which one dies.

      • The only way to prevent this is social distancing today. Not tomorrow. Today.

      • That means keeping as many people home as possible, starting now.

      As a politician, community leader or business leader, you have the power and the responsibility to prevent this.

      You might have fears today: What if I overreact? Will people laugh at me? Will they be angry at me? Will I look stupid? Won’t it be better to wait for others to take steps first? Will I hurt the economy too much?

      But in 2–4 weeks, when the entire world is in lockdown, when the few precious days of social distancing you will have enabled will have saved lives, people won’t criticize you anymore: They will thank you for making the right decision.

      Ok, let’s do this.

      1. How Many Cases of Coronavirus Will There Be in Your Area?

      Country Growth

      The total number of cases grew exponentially until China contained it.

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      But then, it leaked outside, and now it’s a pandemic that nobody can stop.

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      As of today, this is mostly due to Italy, Iran and South Korea:

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      There are so many cases in South Korea, Italy and Iran that it’s hard to see the rest of the countries, but let’s zoom in on that corner at the bottom right.

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      There are dozens of countries with exponential growth rates. As of today, most of them are Western.

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      If you keep up with that type of growth rate for just a week, this is what you get:

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      If you want to understand what will happen, or how to prevent it, you need to look at the cases that have already gone through this: China, Eastern countries with SARS experience, and Italy.

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      China

      Source: Tomas Pueyo analysis over chart from the Journal of the American Medical Association, based on raw case data from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention

      This is one of the most important charts.

      It shows in orange bars the daily official number of cases in the Hubei province: How many people were diagnosed that day.

      The grey bars show the true daily coronavirus cases. The Chinese CDC found these by asking patients during the diagnostic when their symptoms started.

      Crucially, these true cases weren’t known at the time. We can only figure them out looking backwards: The authorities don’t know that somebody just started having symptoms. They know when somebody goes to the doctor and gets diagnosed.

      What this means is that the orange bars show you what authorities knew, and the grey ones what was really happening.

      On January 21st, the number of new diagnosed cases (orange) is exploding: there are around 100 new cases. In reality, there were 1,500 new cases that day, growing exponentially. But the authorities didn’t know that. What they knew was that suddenly there were 100 new cases of this new illness.

      Two days later, authorities shut down Wuhan. At that point, the number of diagnosed daily new cases was ~400. Note that number: they made a decision to close the city with just 400 new cases in a day. In reality, there were 2,500 new cases that day, but they didn’t know that.

      The day after, another 15 cities in Hubei shut down.

      Up until Jan 23rd, when Wuhan closes, you can look at the grey graph: it’s growing exponentially. True cases were exploding. As soon as Wuhan shuts down, cases slow down. On Jan 24th, when another 15 cities shut down, the number of true cases (again, grey) grinds to a halt. Two days later, the maximum number of true cases was reached, and it has gone down ever since.

      Note that the orange (official) cases were still growing exponentially: For 12 more days, it looked like this thing was still exploding. But it wasn’t. It’s just that the cases were getting stronger symptoms and going to the doctor more, and the system to identify them was stronger.

      This concept of official and true cases is important. Let’s keep it in mind for later.

      The rest of regions in China were well coordinated by the central government, so they took immediate and drastic measures. This is the result:

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      Every flat line is a Chinese region with coronavirus cases. Each one had the potential to become exponential, but thanks to the measures happening just at the end of January, all of them stopped the virus before it could spread.

      Meanwhile, South Korea, Italy and Iran had a full month to learn, but didn’t. They started the same exponential growth of Hubei and passed every other Chinese region before the end of February.

      Eastern Countries

      South Korea cases have exploded, but have you wondered why Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, Thailand or Hong Kong haven’t?

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      Taiwan didn’t even make it to this graph because it didn’t have the 50 cases threshold that I used.

      All of them were hit by SARS in 2003, and all of them learned from it. They learned how viral and lethal it could be, so they knew to take it seriously. That’s why all of their graphs, despite starting to grow much earlier, still don’t look like exponentials.

      So far, we have stories of coronavirus exploding, governments realizing the threat, and containing them. For the rest of the countries, however, it’s a completely different story.

      Before I jump to them, a note about South Korea: The country is probably an outlier. The coronavirus was contained for the first 30 cases. Patient 31 was a super-spreader who passed it to thousands of other people. Because the virus spreads before people show symptoms, by the time the authorities realized the issue, the virus was out there. They’re now paying the consequences of that one instance. Their containment efforts show, however: Italy has already passed it in numbers of cases, and Iran will pass it tomorrow (3/10/2020).

      Washington State

      You’ve already seen the growth in Western countries, and how bad forecasts of just one week look like. Now imagine that containment doesn’t happen like in Wuhan or in other Eastern countries, and you get a colossal epidemic.

      Let’s look at a few cases, such as Washington State, the San Francisco Bay Area, Paris and Madrid.

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      Washington State is the US’s Wuhan.The number of cases there is growing exponentially. It’s currently at 140.

      But something interesting happened early on. The death rate was through the roof. At some point, the state had 3 cases and one death.

      We know from other places that the death rate of the coronavirus is anything between 0.5% and 5% (more on that later). How could the death rate be 33%?

      It turned out that the virus had been spreading undetected for weeks. It’s not like there were only 3 cases. It’s that authorities only knew about 3, and one of them was dead because the more serious the condition, the more likely somebody is to be tested.

      This is a bit like the orange and grey bars in China: Here they only knew about the orange bars (official cases) and they looked good: just 3. But in reality, there were hundreds, maybe thousands of true cases.

      This is an issue: You only know the official cases, not the true ones. But you need to know the true ones. How can you estimate the true ones? It turns out, there’s a couple of ways. And I have a model for both, so you can play with the numbers too (direct link to copy of the model).

      First, through deaths. If you have deaths in your region, you can use that to guess the number of true current cases. We know approximately how long it takes for that person to go from catching the virus to dying on average (17.3 days). That means the person who died on 2/29 in Washington State probably got infected around 2/12.

      Then, you know the mortality rate. For this scenario, I’m using 1% (we’ll discuss later the details). That means that, around 2/12, there were already around ~100 cases in the area (of which only one ended up in death 17.3 days later).

      Now, use the average doubling time for the coronavirus (time it takes to double cases, on average). It’s 6.2. That means that, in the 17 days it took this person to die, the cases had to multiply by ~8 (=2^(17/6)). That means that, if you are not diagnosing all cases, one death today means 800 true cases today.

      Washington state has today 22 deaths. With that quick calculation, you get ~16,000 true coronavirus cases today. As many as the official cases in Italy and Iran combined.

      If we look into the detail, we realize that 19 of these deaths were from one cluster, which might not have spread the virus widely. So if we consider those 19 deaths as one, the total deaths in the state is four. Updating the model with that number, we still get ~3,000 cases today.

      This approach from Trevor Bedford looks at the viruses themselves and their mutations to assess the current case count.

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

      The conclusion is that there are likely ~1,100 cases in Washington state right now.

      None of these approaches are perfect, but they all point to the same message: We don’t know the number of true cases, but it’s much higher than the official one. It’s not in the hundreds. It’s in the thousands, maybe more.

      San Francisco Bay Area

      Until 3/8, the Bay Area didn’t have any death. That made it hard to know how many true cases there were. Officially, there were 86 cases. But the US is vastly undertesting because it doesn’t have enough kits. The country decided to create their own test kit, which turned out not to work.

      These were the number of tests carried out in different countries by March 3rd:

      Sources for each number here

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      Turkey, with no cases of coronavirus, had 10 times the testing per inhabitant than the US. The situation is not much better today, with ~8,000 tests performed in the US, which means ~4,000 people have been tested.

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      Here, you can just use a share of official cases to true cases. How to decide which one? For the Bay Area, they were testing everybody who had traveled or was in contact with a traveler, which means that they knew most of the travel-related cases, but none of the community spread cases. By having a sense of community spread vs. travel spread, you can know how many true cases there are.

      I looked at that ratio for South Korea, which has great data. By the time they had 86 cases, the % of them from community spread was 86% (86 and 86% are a coincidence).

      With that number, you can calculate the number of true cases. If the Bay Area has 86 cases today, it is likely that the true number is ~600.

      France and Paris

      France claims 1,400 cases today and 30 deaths. Using the two methods above, you can have a range of cases: between 24,000 and 140,000.

      The true number of coronavirus cases in France today is likely to be between 24,000 and 140,000.

      Let me repeat that: the number of true cases in France is likely to be between one and two orders or magnitude higher than it is officially reported.

      Don’t believe me? Let’s look at the Wuhan graph again.

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      Source: Tomas Pueyo analysis over chart and data from the Journal of the American Medical Association

      If you stack up the orange bars until 1/22, you get 444 cases. Now add up all the grey bars. They add up to ~12,000 cases. So when Wuhan thought it had 444 cases, it had 27 times more. If France thinks it has 1,400 cases, it might well have tens of thousands

      The same math applies to Paris. With ~30 cases inside the city, the true number of cases is likely to be in the hundreds, maybe thousands. With 300 cases in the Ile-de-France region, the total cases in the region might already exceed tens of thousands.

      Spain and Madrid

      Spain has very similar numbers as France (1,200 cases vs. 1,400, and both have 30 deaths). That means the same rules are valid: Spain has probably upwards of 20k true cases already.

      In the Comunidad de Madrid region, with 600 official cases and 17 deaths, the true number of cases is likely between 10,000 and 60,000.

      If you read these data and tell yourself: “Impossible, this can’t be true”, just think this: With this number of cases, Wuhan was already in lockdown.

      With the number of cases we see today in countries like the US, Spain, France, Iran, Germany, Japan, Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden or Switzerland, Wuhan was already in lockdown.

      And if you’re telling yourself: “Well, Hubei is just one region”, let me remind you that it has nearly 60 million people, bigger than Spain and about the size of France.

      2. What Will Happen When These Coronavirus Cases Materialize?

      So the coronavirus is already here. It’s hidden, and it’s growing exponentially.

      What will happen in our countries when it hits? It’s easy to know, because we already have several places where it’s happening. The best examples are Hubei and Italy.

      Fatality Rates

      The World Health Organization (WHO) quotes 3.4% as the fatality rate (% people who contract the coronavirus and then die). This number is out of context so let me explain it.

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      It really depends on the country and the moment: between 0.6% in South Korea and 4.4% in Iran. So what is it? We can use a trick to figure it out.

      The two ways you can calculate the fatality rate is Deaths/Total Cases and Death/Closed Cases. The first one is likely to be an underestimate, because lots of open cases can still end up in death. The second is an overestimate, because it’s likely that deaths are closed quicker than recoveries.

      What I did was look at how both evolve over time. Both of these numbers will converge to the same result once all cases are closed, so if you project past trends to the future, you can make a guess on what the final fatality rate will be.

      This is what you see in the data. China’s fatality rate is now between 3.6% and 6.1%. If you project that in the future, it looks like it converges towards ~3.8%-4%. This is double the current estimate, and 30 times worse than the flu.

      It is made up of two completely different realities though: Hubei and the rest of China.

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      Hubei’s fatality rate will probably converge towards 4.8%. Meanwhile, for the rest of China, it will likely converge to ~0.9%:

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      I also charted the numbers for Iran, Italy and South Korea, the only countries with enough deaths to make this somewhat relevant.

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      Iran’s and Italy’s Deaths / Total Cases are both converging towards the 3%-4% range. My guess is their numbers will end up around that figure too.

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      South Korea is the most interesting example, because these 2 numbers are completely disconnected: deaths / total cases is only 0.6%, but deaths / closed cases is a whopping 48%. My take on it is that a few unique things are happening there. First, they’re testing everybody (with so many open cases, the death rate seems low), and leaving the cases open for longer (so they close cases quickly when the patient is dead). Second, they have a lot of hospital beds (see chart 17.b). There might also be other reasons we don’t know. What is relevant is that deaths/cases has hovered around 0.5% since the beginning, suggesting it will stay there, likely heavily influenced by the healthcare system and crisis management.

      The last relevant example is the Diamond Princess cruise: with 706 cases, 6 deaths and 100 recoveries, the fatality rate will be between 1% and 6.5%.

      Note that the age distribution in each country will also have an impact: Since mortality is much higher for older people, countries with an aging population like Japan will be harder hit on average than younger countries like Nigeria. There are also weather factors, especially humidity and temperature, but it’s still unclear how this will impact transmission and fatality rates.

      This is what you can conclude:

      • Excluding these, countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China).

      • Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%

      Put in another way: Countries that act fast can reduce the number of deaths by a factor of ten. And that’s just counting the fatality rate. Acting fast also drastically reduces the cases, making this even more of a no-brainer.

      Countries that act fast reduce the number of deaths at least by 10x.

      So what does a country need to be prepared?

      What Will Be the Pressure on the System

      Around 20% of cases require hospitalization, 5% of cases require the Intensive Care Unit (ICU), and around 2.5% require very intensive help, with items such as ventilators or ECMO (extra-corporeal oxygenation).

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      The problem is that items such as ventilators and ECMO can’t be produced or bought easily. A few years ago, the US had a total of 250 ECMO machines, for example.

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      So if you suddenly have 100,000 people infected, many of them will want to go get tested. Around 20,000 will require hospitalization, 5,000 will need the ICU, and 1,000 will need machines that we don’t have enough of today. And that’s just with 100,000 cases.

      That is without taking into account issues such as masks. A country like the US has only 1% of the masks it needs to cover the needs of its healthcare workers (12M N95, 30M surgical vs. 3.5B needed). If a lot of cases appear at once, there will be masks for only 2 weeks.

      Countries like Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong or Singapore, as well as Chinese regions outside of Hubei, have been prepared and given the care that patients need.

      But the rest of Western countries are rather going in the direction of Hubei and Italy. So what is happening there?

      What an Overwhelmed Healthcare System Looks Like

      The stories that happened in Hubei and those in Italy are starting to become eerily similar. Hubei built two hospitals in ten days, but even then, it was completely overwhelmed.

      Both complained that patients inundated their hospitals. They had to be taken care of anywhere: in hallways, in waiting rooms…

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      I heavily recommend this short Twitter thread. It paints a pretty stark picture of Italy today

      Healthcare workers spend hours in a single piece of protective gear, because there’s not enough of them. As a result, they can’t leave the infected areas for hours. When they do, they crumble, dehydrated and exhausted. Shifts don’t exist anymore. People are driven back from retirement to cover needs. People who have no idea about nursing are trained overnight to fulfill critical roles. Everybody is on call, always.

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      Francesca Mangiatordi, an Italian nurse that crumbled in the middle of the war with the Coronavirus

      That is, until they become sick. Which happens a lot, because they’re in constant exposure to the virus, without enough protective gear. When that happens, they need to be in quarantine for 14 days, during which they can’t help. Best case scenario, 2 weeks are lost. Worst case, they’re dead.

      The worst is in the ICUs, when patients need to share ventilators or ECMOs. These are in fact impossible to share, so the healthcare workers must determine what patient will use it. That really means, which one lives and which one dies.

      “After a few days, we have to choose. […] Not everyone can be intubated. We decide based on age and state of health.” —Christian Salaroli, Italian MD.

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      Medical workers wear protective suits to attend to people sickened by the novel coronavirus, in the intensive care unit of a designated hospital in Wuhan, China, on Feb. 6. (China Daily/Reuters), via Washington Post

      All of this is what drives a system to have a fatality rate of ~4% instead of ~0.5%. If you want your city or your country to be part of the 4%, don’t do anything today.

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      Satellite images show Behesht Masoumeh cemetery in the Iranian city of Qom. Photograph: ©2020 Maxar Technologies. Via The Guardian and the The New York Times.

      3. What Should You Do?

      Flatten the Curve

      This is a pandemic now. It can’t be eliminated. But what we can do is reduce its impact.

      Some countries have been exemplary at this. The best one is Taiwan, which is extremely connected with China and yet still has as of today fewer than 50 cases. This recent paper explain all the measures they took early on, which were focused on containment.

      They have been able to contain it, but most countries lacked this expertise and didn’t. Now, they’re playing a different game: mitigation. They need to make this virus as inoffensive as possible.

      If we reduce the infections as much as possible, our healthcare system will be able to handle cases much better, driving the fatality rate down. And, if we spread this over time, we will reach a point where the rest of society can be vaccinated, eliminating the risk altogether. So our goal is not to eliminate coronavirus contagions. It’s to postpone them.

      Source

      The more we postpone cases, the better the healthcare system can function, the lower the mortality rate, and the higher the share of the population that will be vaccinated before it gets infected.

      How do we flatten the curve?

      Social Distancing

      There is one very simple thing that we can do and that works: social distancing.

      If you go back to the Wuhan graph, you will remember that as soon as there was a lockdown, cases went down. That’s because people didn’t interact with each other, and the virus didn’t spread.

      The current scientific consensus is that this virus can be spread within 2 meters (6 feet) if somebody coughs. Otherwise, the droplets fall to the ground and don’t infect you.

      The worst infection then becomes through surfaces: The virus survives for up to 9 days on different surfaces such as metal, ceramics and plastics. That means things like doorknobs, tables, or elevator buttons can be terrible infection vectors.

      The only way to truly reduce that is with social distancing: Keeping people home as much as possible, for as long as possible until this recedes.

      This has already been proven in the past. Namely, in the 1918 flu pandemic.

      Learnings from the 1918 Flu Pandemic

      You can see how Philadelphia didn’t act quickly, and had a massive peak in death rates. Compare that with St Louis, which did.

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      Then look at Denver, which enacted measures and then loosened them. They had a double peak, with the 2nd one higher than the first.

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      If you generalize, this is what you find:

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      This chart shows, for the 1918 flu in the US, how many more deaths there were per city depending on how fast measures were taken. For example, a city like St Louis took measures 6 days before Pittsburgh, and had less than half the deaths per citizen. On average, taking measures 20 days earlier halved the death rate.

      Italy has finally figured this out. They first locked down Lombardy on Sunday, and one day later, on Monday, they realized their mistake and decided they had to lock down the entire country.

      Hopefully, we will see results in the coming days. However, it will take one to two weeks to see. Remember the Wuhan graph: there was a delay of 12 days between the moment when the lockdown was announced and the moment when official cases (orange) started going down.

      How Can Politicians Contribute to Social Distancing?

      The question politicians are asking themselves today is not whether they should do something, but rather what’s the appropriate action to take.

      There are several stages to control an epidemic, starting with anticipation and ending with eradication. But it’s too late for most options today. With this level of cases, the two only options politicians have in front of them are containment and mitigation.

      Containment

      Containment is making sure all the cases are identified, controlled, and isolated. It’s what Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan or Taiwan are doing so well: They very quickly limit people coming in, identify the sick, immediately isolate them, use heavy protective gear to protect their health workers, track all their contacts, quarantine them… This works extremely well when you’re prepared and you do it early on, and don’t need to grind your economy to a halt to make it happen.

      I’ve already touted Taiwan’s approach. But China’s is good too. The lengths at which it went to contain the virus are mind-boggling. For example, they had up to 1,800 teams of 5 people each tracking every infected person, everybody they got interacted with, then everybody those people interacted with, and isolating the bunch. That’s how they were able to contain the virus across a billion-people country.

      This is not what Western countries have done. And now it’s too late. The recent US announcement that most travel from Europe was banned is a containment measure for a country that has, as of today, 3 times the cases that Hubei had when it shut down, growing exponentially. How can we know if it’s enough? It turns out, we can know by looking at the Wuhan travel ban.

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      Link to source

      This chart shows the impact that the Wuhan travel ban had delaying the epidemic. The bubble sizes show the number of daily cases. The top line shows the cases if nothing is done. The two other lines show the impact if 40% and 90% of travel is eliminated. This is a model created by epidemiologists, because we can’t know for sure.

      If you don’t see much difference, you’re right. It’s very hard to see any change in the development of the epidemic.

      Researchers estimate that, all in all, the Wuhan travel ban only delayed the spread in China by 3–5 days.

      Now what did researchers think the impact of reducing transmission would be?

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      The top bloc is the same as the one you’ve seen before. The two other blocks show decreasing transmission rates. If the transmission rate goes down by 25% (through Social Distancing), it flattens the curve and delays the peak by a whole 14 weeks. Lower the transition rate by 50%, and you can’t see the epidemic even starting within a quarter.

      The US administration’s ban on European travel is good: It has probably bought us a few hours, maybe a day or two. But not more. It is not enough. It’s containment when what’s needed is mitigation.

      Once there are hundreds or thousands of cases growing in the population, preventing more from coming, tracking the existing ones and isolating their contacts isn’t enough anymore. The next level is mitigation.

      Mitigation

      Mitigation requires heavy social distancing. People need to stop hanging out to drop the transmission rate (R), from the R=~2–3 that the virus follows without measures, to below 1, so that it eventually dies out.

      These measures require closing companies, shops, mass transit, schools, enforcing lockdowns… The worse your situation, the worse the social distancing. The earlier you impose heavy measures, the less time you need to keep them, the easier it is to identify brewing cases, and the fewer people get infected.

      This is what Wuhan had to do. This is what Italy was forced to accept. Because when the virus is rampant, the only measure is to lock down all the infected areas to stop spreading it at once.

      With thousands of official cases — and tens of thousands of true ones — this is what countries like Iran, France, Spain, Germany, Switzerland or the US need to do.

      But they’re not doing it.

      Some business are working from home, which is fantastic.
      Some mass events are being stopped.
      Some affected areas are in quarantining themselves.

      All these measures will slow down the virus. They will lower the transmission rate from 2.5 to 2.2, maybe 2. But they aren’t enough to get us below 1 for a sustained period of time to stop the epidemic. And if we can’t do that, we need to get it as close to 1 for as long as possible, to flatten the curve.

      So the question becomes: What are the tradeoffs we could be making to lower the R? This is the menu that Italy has put in front of all of us:

      • Nobody can enter or exit lockdown areas, unless there are proven family or work reasons.

      • Movement inside the areas is to be avoided, unless they are justified for urgent personal or work reasons and can’t be postponed.

      • People with symptoms (respiratory infection and fever) are “highly recommended” to remain home.

      • Standard time off for healthcare workers is suspended

      • Closure of all educational establishments (schools, universities…), gyms, museums, ski stations, cultural and social centers, swimming pools, and theaters.

      • Bars and restaurants have limited opening times from 6am to 6pm, with at least one meter (~3 feet) distance between people.

      • All pubs and clubs must close.

      • All commercial activity must keep a distance of one meter between customers. Those that can’t make it happen must close. Temples can remain open as long as they can guarantee this distance.

      • Family and friends hospital visits are limited

      • Work meetings must be postponed. Work from home must be encouraged.

      • All sports events and competitions, public or private, are canceled. Important events can be held under closed doors.

      Then two days later, they added: No, in fact, you need to close all businesses that aren’t crucial. So now we’re closing all commercial activities, offices, cafes and shops. Only transportation, pharmacies, groceries will remain open.”

      One approach is to gradually increase measures. Unfortunately, that gives precious time for the virus to spread. If you want to be safe, do it Wuhan style. People might complain now, but they’ll thank you later.

      How Can Business Leaders Contribute to Social Distancing?

      If you’re a business leader and you want to know what you should do, the best resource for you is Staying Home Club.

      It is a list of social distancing policies that have been enacted by US tech companies—so far, 328.

      They range from allowed to required Work From Home, and restricted visits, travel, or events.

      There are more things that every company must determine, such as what to do with hourly workers, whether to keep the office open or not, how to conduct interviews, what to do with the cafeterias… If you want to know how my company, Course Hero, handled some of these, along with a model announcement to your employees, here is the one my company used (view only version here).

      4. When?

      It is very possible that so far you’ve agreed with everything I’ve said, and were just wondering since the beginning when to make each decision. Put in another way, what triggers should we have for each measure.

      It enables you to assess the likely number of cases in your area, the probability that your employees are already infected, how that evolves over time, and how that should tell you whether to remain open.

      It tells us things like:

      • If your company had 100 employees in the Washington state area, which had 11 coronavirus deaths on 3/8, there was a 25% chance at least one of your employees was infected, and you should have closed immediately.

      • If your company had 250 employees mostly in the South Bay (San Mateo and Santa Clara counties, which together had 22 official cases on 3/8 and the true number was probably at least 54), by 3/9 you would have had ~2% chances to have at least one employee infected, and you should have closed your office too.

      • [Updated as of 3/12] If your company is in Paris (intramuros), and it has 250 employees, today there’s a 95% chance that one of your employees has the coronavirus, and you should close your office by tomorrow.

      The model uses labels such as “company” and “employee”, but the same model can be used for anything else: schools, mass transit… So if you have only 50 employees in Paris, but all of them are going to take the train, coming across thousands of other people, suddenly the likelihood that at least one of them will get infected is much higher and you should close your office immediately.

      If you’re still hesitating because nobody is showing symptoms, just realize 26% of contagions happen before there are symptoms.

      Are You Part of a Group of Leaders?

      This math is selfish. It looks at every company’s risk individually, taking as much risk as we want until the inevitable hammer of the coronavirus closes our offices.

      But if you’re part of a league of business leaders or politicians, your calculations are not for just one company, but for the whole. The math becomes: What’s the likelihood that any of our companies is infected? If you’re a group of 50 companies of 250 employees on average, in the SF Bay Area, there’s a 35% chance that at least one of the companies has an employee infected, and 97% chance that will be true next week. I added a tab in the model to play with that.

      Conclusion: The Cost of Waiting

      It might feel scary to make a decision today, but you shouldn’t think about it this way.

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      This theoretical model shows different communities: one doesn’t take social distancing measures, one takes them on Day n of an outbreak, the other one on Day n+1. All the numbers are completely fictitious (I chose them to resemble what happened in Hubei, with ~6k daily new cases at the worst). They’re just there to illustrate how important a single day can be in something that grows exponentially. You can see that the one-day delay peaks later and higher, but then daily cases converge to zero.

      But what about cumulative cases?

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      In this theoretical model that resembles loosely Hubei, waiting one more day creates 40% more cases! So, maybe, if the Hubei authorities had declared the lockdown on 1/22 instead of 1/23, they might have reduced the number of cases by a staggering 20k.

      And remember, these are just cases. Mortality would be much higher, because not only would there be directly 40% more deaths. There would also be a much higher collapse of the healthcare system, leading to a mortality rate up to 10x higher as we saw before. So a one-day difference in social distancing measures can end exploding the number of deaths in your community by multiplying more cases and higher fatality rate.

      This is an exponential threat. Every day counts. When you’re delaying by a single day a decision, you’re not contributing to a few cases maybe. There are probably hundreds or thousands of cases in your community already. Every day that there isn’t social distancing, these cases grow exponentially.


      Tyler Durden

      Sat, 03/14/2020 – 00:05

    • The State Of Freedom Worldwide
      The State Of Freedom Worldwide

      Democratic watchdog organization Freedom House has released its annual ranking of the world’s most free and the world’s most suppressed nations.

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      As Statista’s Niall McCarthy notes, for the 14th year in a row, global freedom has been found to have declined. 64 countries experienced a decline in freedom with only 37 making a move in the right direction. In a particularly worrying development, Freedom House found that 25 out of 41 “established democracies” have also experienced net losses in democracy since 2006.

      Infographic: The State of Freedom Worldwide | Statista

      You will find more infographics at Statista

      The United States enjoyed similar levels of freedom to Switzerland and the United Kingdom a decade ago but it has experienced a decline and is now ranked behind Greece and Slovakia while it remains marginally ahead of Argentina and Croatia. Freedom House blamed the policies of the Trump administration for the slide, stating that it has failed to exhibit consistent commitment to a foreign policy based on the principles of democracy and human rights.

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      The highest-ranked countries this year are Finland, Norway and Sweden while the the Netherlands, Canada, Ireland, Australia and New Zealand were also among the top scorers.

      In total, 49 countries fell into the “not free” category with Syria at the very bottom. Turkmenistan, Eritrea, North Korea, South Korea and Somalia are also among the worst-ranked countries.


      Tyler Durden

      Fri, 03/13/2020 – 23:45

    • Psychologist: Big Tech Will Use "Subliminal Methods" To Shift 15 Million Votes On Election Day
      Psychologist: Big Tech Will Use “Subliminal Methods” To Shift 15 Million Votes On Election Day

      Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

      Psychologist Robert Epstein says that Big Tech is planning to use “subliminal methods” in the upcoming election that could shift up to 15 million votes and cost Trump the presidency.

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      After the 2016 presidential election, Epstein surmised that search engine bias shifted 2-3 million votes in Hillary Clinton’s favor, and he warns that the number in 2020 could be five times that amount.

      The author says that Google and other social media giants “can shift opinions and votes in numerous ways that people can’t detect” via “a wide variety of subliminal methods of persuasion that can, in minutes, shift the voting preferences of 20 percent or more of undecided voters without anyone having the slightest idea they’ve been manipulated.”

      A leak of Google emails to the Wall Street Journal back in 2018 already exposed how Google engineers had sought to investigate how they could manipulate a user’s “ephemeral experiences” to change their mind on the Trump travel ban.

      “Ephemeral experiences are those fleeting ones we have every day when we view online content that’s generated on-the-fly and isn’t stored anywhere: newsfeeds, search suggestions, search results, and so on,” writes Epstein.

      “No authority can go back in time to see what search suggestions or search results you were shown, but dozens of randomized, controlled, double-blind experiments I’ve conducted show that such content can dramatically shift opinions and voting preferences. See the problem?”

      Google, Twitter and Facebook have complete control over what is seen and what is allowed to go viral, Epstein emphasizes, making it completely pointless to produce political ads if you cannot prevent algorithmic manipulation.

      “If our own tech companies all favor the same presidential candidate this year—and that seems likely—I calculate that they can easily shift 15 million votes to that candidate without people knowing and without leaving a paper trail,” warns Epstein.

      He also notes how the the “technological elite” Eisenhower warned about in his 1961 farewell address is now in control, underscored by the fact that “95 percent of donations from tech companies and their employees go to Democrats.”

      Epstein says the only way to prevent all this is aggressive monitoring of algorithmic manipulation.

      “When bias is detected that has the potential to shift votes, it needs to be reported immediately to the media, the Federal Election Commission, members of Congress, and other authorities,” he writes.

      “That will force the tech execs to back off; if they don’t, they’ll be risking humiliation, fines, and, quite possibly, criminal prosecution.”

      Despite highlighting the issue for years, Republicans have done next to nothing to address social media censorship and algorithm manipulation. Numerous major boosters of President Trump during the 2016 election have also been completely banned on social media.

      Pointing out that the margin of victory in many nationwide races is as little as 5 per cent, Epstein cautions, “Republicans, in general, are likely to lose.”

      Epstein also emphasized that given his knowledge about what Big Tech are planning, he is “not suicidal.”

      This is particularly noteworthy given that the psychologist previously suggested that his wife’s fatal car crash may not have been accidental.

      *  *  *

      My voice is being silenced by free speech-hating Silicon Valley behemoths who want me disappeared forever. It is CRUCIAL that you support me. Please sign up for the free newsletter here. Donate to me on SubscribeStar here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown.


      Tyler Durden

      Fri, 03/13/2020 – 23:25

    • "It's Terrible": NYC Restaurants Shocked With "Mass Event Cancellations" As Virus Fears Grow
      “It’s Terrible”: NYC Restaurants Shocked With “Mass Event Cancellations” As Virus Fears Grow

      We already wrote weeks ago about how the coronavirus was wreaking havoc among Chinese business owners in various cities across the U.S.

      Since then, fear of the virus has been ramped up significantly, and so it should come as no surprise that people are starting to cancel events at NYC restaurants en masse, according to Eater. 

      Restaurants across NYC are reporting that parties are being cancelled and business is “seeing dips” since the first confirmed coronavirus case in NYC last week. And if we were willing to bet, those would not be “dips” you’d want to buy. It’ll likely get worse.

      As of Monday, there were 19 confirmed cases in the city and many corporate offices are encouraging employees to work from home. Hotels and restaurants are getting hit the hardest. One restaurant owner, Tom Colicchio, says his revenue is down “as much as 70%”. The NYC Hospitality alliance says it’s seen a “big drop” in business. 

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      Another restaurantuer, Michael Sinensky, founder of Simple Venue, a hospitality group that runs Sushi by Bae and Sushi by Bou, says sales have dropped off by as much as 25% and he’s expecting it to continue for “several weeks”. 

      Additionally, fewer companies are booking events for the spring. Colicchio said: “It’s terrible. It’s just an unknown here. You have no idea how long it’s going to last. It’s hard to get in front of … who knows when things will go back to normal?”

      Restaurants that rely on large parties are also seeing declines in foot traffic. Xi’an Famous Foods’s CEO Jason Wang saw a 20% drop in his locations in Flushing and Chinatown last month. He also says customer foot traffic is lower.

      Owner of East Village Korean restaurant Nowon, Jae Lee, said business started falling about three weeks ago, but has tapered since then. The restaurant group behind Japanese spots like Sobaya said that foot traffic is “visibly lower”. 

      And things aren’t looking optimistic. Not unlike the market itself, this is a dip that may not be getting better anytime soon. Ravi DeRossi — who owns 15 restaurants and bars, said: “Over the weekend, a quarter of reservations canceled day-of, with some saying they’re concerned about being in public places and others worried about not feeling well. This was the first weekend. My feeling is every weekend, it’s going to get worse and worse.”

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      Many restaurants are now dealing with extra precautions for hygiene. More things are getting disinfected, more frequently, according to Eater. One owner says the “unprecedented” situation has them training their staff on how to deal with “fear and panic”. 

      Colicchio’s restaurants are keeping less inventory on hand and holding off on larger purchases for the time being. The Sushi by Bae and Sushi by Bou restaurants are developing a delivery box to try and “balance the business we expect to lose due to the virus panic.”

      DeRossi concluded: “I’ll be honest, I’m a little scared. I’m in the East Village. All it takes is one case. If one restaurant in the East Village says, ‘This person at this restaurant got that,’ and the entire East Village will shut down overnight. I honestly don’t know what to do, other than take every serious precaution that we can.”

      “I think we’re in for a long period of uncertainty right now,” Colicchio added. 

       


      Tyler Durden

      Fri, 03/13/2020 – 23:05

    • Elon Musk Is Acting Like A Neo-Conquistador For South America's Lithium
      Elon Musk Is Acting Like A Neo-Conquistador For South America’s Lithium

      Authored by Vijay Prashad and Alejandro Bejarno via Counterpunch.org,

      Elon Musk, the head of Tesla, wants to build an electric car factory in Brazil. He was supposed to meet Jair Bolsonaro, the president of Brazil, in Miami in early March, but he was too busy; instead, Musk will go to Brazil sometime this year. All eyes are on the southern Brazilian state of Santa Catarina, whose Secretary of International Affairs Derian Campos is in direct contact with Musk. Two automobile manufacturers – BMW and GM – already have factories in Santa Catarina. Marcos Pontes (Minister of Science, Technology, Innovation, and Communications) held a video conference with Anderson Ricardo Pacheco, a senior Tesla official. They were joined by Daniel Freitas, a congressman, and Claiton Pacheco Galdino, who is the business development director for Criciúma, a city in Santa Catarina. They are eager for Tesla to open a Gigafactory – Tesla’s name for a big factory – in South America’s largest economy.

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      It helps that Brazil has considerable lithium deposits – mostly in the southeastern states of Minas Gerais and Paraíba and in the northeastern states of Ceará and Rio Grande do Norte. The production of lithium is limited, largely having been used for ceramics and glass production.

      The Bolsonaro government is interested in increasing the production of lithium, including as a key raw material for the lithium-ion batteries that power electric cars such as those made by Tesla. But Brazil’s lithium will not be sufficient. Tesla would need to import lithium from elsewhere.

      The Lithium Triangle

      Over 50 percent of the world’s known lithium deposits are in the “Lithium Triangle” – the lithium concentrated brine sources in Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile. Bolivia’s high mountain deserts – the Salar de Uyuni – have by far the largest known reserves of lithium.

      In a bizarre tweet, the Bolivian entrepreneur Samuel Doria Medina wrote that since Elon Musk and Jair Bolsonaro will discuss the Tesla plant in Brazil, they should add to this initiative the following: “build a Gigafactory in the Salar de Uyuni to supply lithium batteries.” Doria Medina is not just an entrepreneur. He is the vice-presidential candidate alongside the “interim president” Jeanine Áñez for the May 3, 2020, Bolivian presidential elections. Áñez came to power only because of the coup d’état against Evo Morales in November 2019. Doria Medina’s welcome mat to Tesla should, therefore, be seen as having the full authority of the coup government behind it.

      Morales’ government had been very cautious with these lithium reserves. It had made clear that these precious resources were not to be turned over to transnational corporations in deals favorable to the firms; what gains come from lithium, Morales had pointed out, must be properly shared with the Bolivian people. The point that Morales’ government made is that any deal must be done with Comibol – Bolivia’s national mining company – and Yacimientos de Litio Bolivianos – Bolivia’s national lithium company. The monetary gains from the mining would come into the Bolivian exchequer and then fund the social programs so necessary for the country. This sensible socialist policy was too much for three major transnational firms – Eramet (France), FMC (United States), and Posco (South Korea) – all three of whom turned tail and went to Argentina.

      The Lithium Coup

      It was Morales’ socialist policy toward Bolivia’s resources that doomed his government. The oligarchy, which was angry with Morales’ government and its socialism, used every mechanism to undermine the election of 2019. Forest fires in the northern and eastern regions of Bolivia provided the oligarchy’s media with the weaponry to suggest that Morales had abandoned his commitment to the environment and to Pachamama (Mother Earth), and that he was now working to benefit the cattle ranchers; it is important to point that this is not only ridiculous, but that as soon as the coup government of Áñez came into office, it passed legislation that allowed the ranchers to extend their lands into forested areas.

      Morales’ opponent – Carlos Mesa – and other senior leaders of the oligarchy’s political parties openly said long before the election that Morales could only win by fraud. A self-proclaimed Council for the Defense of Democracy said that Morales was an illegitimate candidate because he had lost the 2016 constitutional referendum. The media – backed by these corporate and neofascist interests – banged the drum of fraud, while Carlos Mesa – on the night of the election – said that there was “monumental fraud” in the election. These provocations from Mesa, the neofascists, and the corporate elites resulted in street violence; in the midst of this, the police – sections of whom were angry with Morales for cracking down on police corruption – mutinied. The 36 Bolivians who died in the immediate post-election aftermath are victims of Mesa’s incendiary language. The Organization of American States (OAS), egged on by the U.S. government, came up with a “preliminary report” of fraud in the election; the hard conclusions in the report were not substantiated by the data in it. The OAS report played an important role in legitimizing the coup against Morales.

      It is important to point out that there was no controversy about Morales’ election in 2014; in that election, Morales won 61 percent of the votes to defeat the entrepreneur Samuel Doria Medina, who won 24 percent (Doria Medina is the same person who is now running for vice president and welcomes Tesla to Bolivia’s lithium). Morales’ term, from the 2014 election, had not yet expired in November 2019; the removal of Morales then violated the mandate of 2014, a point that has received almost no discussion either inside Bolivia or abroad.

      John Curiel and Jack Williams of the Election Data and Science Lab of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) went over the Bolivian election data and found no fraud: “There is not any statistical evidence of fraud that we can find,” they wrote conclusively in the Washington Post. Curiel and Williams contacted the OAS, but they note, “We and other scholars within the field reached out to the OAS for comment; the OAS did not respond.” By their assessment, Morales won the election in November 2019 and should have been inaugurated this year to a new term.

      Terrible pressure by the coup government against the party of Morales (the Movement for Socialism, or MAS) – as well as the presence of USAID monitors and a U.S.-backed head of the election commission, Salvador Romero – suggests that this election on May 3 is not going to be at all fair; it will likely favor the coup government, including the entrepreneur who wants to turn over Bolivia’s lithium to Elon Musk’s Tesla and Jair Bolsonaro’s Brazil.

      A World of Lithium

      In 2019, the benchmark Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s “Energy Storage Outlook 2019” report anticipated that by 2030, the price of the lithium-ion battery would drop dramatically, and that – as a consequence – renewable energy (solar and wind) plus storage of energy in batteries will expand exponentially. By 2040, there is an expectation that wind and solar will produce 40 percent of world energy consumption, rather than the 7 percent it now produces. For this, demand for energy storage will increase.

      “The total demand for batteries from the stationary storage and electric transport sectors is forecast to be 4,584GWh (Gigawatt hours) by 2040,” write the Bloomberg analysts, “providing a major opportunity for battery makers and miners of component metals such as lithium, cobalt and nickel.” The current use is merely 9GW/17GWh.

      The key point to emphasize here is that this will provide “a major opportunity” for “miners of component metals such as lithium, cobalt and nickel.” When Bloomberg’s analysts use a word like “miners,” they do not mean the Bolivian miners or the Congolese miners, but the transnational firms, such as Tesla and its chief, Elon Musk. As far as Bloomberg and Áñez are concerned, South America is no longer to follow the resource nationalist project of Evo Morales; this is Elon Musk’s South America, a place for the neo-conquistadors to make money and leave behind them social carnage.


      Tyler Durden

      Fri, 03/13/2020 – 22:45

    • Federal Reserve Turns To Big Data To Monitor Business Cycle 
      Federal Reserve Turns To Big Data To Monitor Business Cycle 

      Federal Reserve officials are increasingly turning to big data to provide them with a more accurate snapshot of the economy, AP News reports. 

      The first evidence of this was during a government shutdown last year when officials turned to First Data, a payments firm that processes $2 trillion in transactions per year, for credit card data to gauge the health of the consumer, as it was evident the Fed was flying blind with most of its consumer datasets halted because of the shutdown. 

      “It was a big deal for the Fed in terms of having information about the economy when the retail sales data did not come out,” said Claudia Sahm, a former Fed analyst who compiled the First Data consumer data for officials during the shutdown. Officials were “extremely interested in what those readings were.”

      The Fed is becoming aware that government data to assess the status of the business cycle is not as accurate as thought, and the 106-year old central bank must leap into the 21st century and embrace big data to stay relevant. 

      “We have been working with big data … with the purpose of better understanding the current position of the economy,” Chairman Jerome Powell recently said. “It’s an area of real interest for us.”

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      Billions of financial transactions are digitized and compiled by private firms and could be a solution for the Fed to monitor more accurately the business cycle for future policy adjustments. 

      The deployment of artificial intelligence, monitoring private data financial transactions, searching for anomalies, could be a new tool for the Fed to pre-emptively fight downturns. 

      “These data are becoming of increasing practical importance for figuring out the state of the economy for policymaking,” Matthew Shapiro, an economist at the University of Michigan who studies economic data, said at a conference last year. “The quality of official statistics is going to deteriorate without help from big data.”

      Most government datasets are a long lag and rely on surveys, not helpful when trying to gauge current conditions of the business cycle, and maybe explains why the Fed is sometimes late to the game in terms of policy action.

      Big data could allow the Fed to view the economy through a looking glass that is more real-time, as opposed to outdated surveys, which could also give the Fed tools to drop precise stimulus where it is needed the most, in terms of geographical region or a specific industry, a move that could thwart contagion. 

      Economists have pressured the Fed to adopt big data and private datasets as part of tools to monitor business conditions. It would make the Fed more accurate in policy deployment, considering they’ve been flying blind since December 23, 1913. 

      “Consumers shop online, summon cars for hire with an app, watch ‘TV’ without television stations or TVs, and ‘bank’ without cash or checks,” Shapiro wrote in a paper last spring. “Data could, in principle, be available with a very short lag.”

      The rise of alternative data has allowed hedge funds to place bets on the economy more accurately. For example, Yelp takes its customer data, packages it up, and sells it to hedge funds for a costly premium. Those hedge funds use artificial intelligence to find trends in Yelp’s consumer data, which then allows them to trade on it. 

      In other examples of using alternative data to guage real-time economic conditions,  we showed readers the collapse of China’s economy weeks before official data printed:

      The Fed got a taste of big data last year during the government shutdown, it remains to be seen if the Fed will continue adopting alternative data as part of its monitoring toolkit.

       


      Tyler Durden

      Fri, 03/13/2020 – 22:25

    • Panic & The Pandemic: Is There A Better Approach?
      Panic & The Pandemic: Is There A Better Approach?

      Via Cliff Mass Weather blog,

      Our society is now transitioning into panic about the coronavirus.

      Universities and schools are being shuttered, sports activities and public gatherings are being cancelled, individuals are hoarding toilet paper and supplies, travel is being severely constrained, the stock market has crashed, and business activity is nose-diving.  Major businesses are forcing their employees to work at home.

      This blog will try to summarize the coronavirus threat, suggest that some of the panic-driven actions may not be well-founded, and that there may be a far better, more effective approach to deal with the virus.

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      Before I begin, let me note two things.   I am not a medical doctor, epidemiologist,  or viral expert. But I am a scientist with some facility with statistics and data, and my specialty, weather prediction, is all about helping people react appropriately to estimates of risk.  And I have talked to a number of doctors about this issue.  But don’t read any more if my background bothers you.

      How Bad is the Situation Today?

      If one steps back and looks at the actual numbers, particularly against other threats we face, the situation is far less apocalyptic than some are suggesting.   As of today, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) notes 1215 cases and 36 deaths in the U.S. since January 1.  This is a very, very small percentage of the U.S.  population of 331 million.   The number of U.S. cases no longer appears to be going up rapidly, as noted by the latest CDC graphic (see below).  Note the drop after the peak in early March.

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      In China, where the problem started, the number of cases is rapidly declining (see below).

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      According to Washington State’s Department of Health, the state has had 457 coronavirus cases and 31 deaths.  Most (23) of the death’s in Washington have been limited to one nursing facility in Kirkland with a large number of elderly, chronically ill patients.  In fact, according to the NY Times, this facility would typically lose 5 patients a month.

      This facility also represents about 50 of the coronavirus cases in Washington, since several first responders and staff were sickened (with no fatalities) due to exposure at this site.    In many ways, the Kirkland facility represented an unfortunate random event–the random exposure of a group of extremely vulnerable patients.    If this random exposure had not happened, Washington State would probably not be getting headlines as a center for this virus outbreak.

      An extremely important element of this coronavirus outbreak is that it hardly sickens young people, and healthy individuals of middle age or younger generally do not face a life-threatening illness.  To illustrate, here is the age distribution of cases in King County.   Few folks under 40 are sickened and none of them died.  The problem is with the sick and elderly.  This age distribution is going to be very, very important.  Similar statistics are found in China.

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      There are undoubtedly many, many cases of coronavirus infection in the younger, healthier members of society, many of which are not aware of their infection.  But without testing, we don’t really know other than by indirect statistical approaches.  Thus, the “death rates” are clearly far too high, and highly deceptive.

      Comparison to the Flu

      It is important to note that the coronavirus numbers are extraordinarily smaller than those of the flu.

      Below is a flu graphic I got from CDC and added the coronavirus cases (see the gray dot).  In fact, the gray dot should be much smaller.   For example, we had 36 coronavirus deaths nationally so far compared to 61,000 flu deaths in 2017-2018.  45 million cases that year compared to 1200 coronavirus cases so far this year.  In WA state, 75 have died of flu through the end of February and several years have brought 200- 300 deaths from influenza.

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      Coronavirus is not even in the same league as flu, which also kills the youngest among us. We did not close down universities, businesses, and more for flu.

      Interestingly, many who are panicking about the coronavirus today, refused to get a flu shot in past years, or to practice reasonable hygiene when flu is around  (e.g., washing hands carefully).  Coronavirus is also not in the same league as auto accidents, which kill 1.25 millions a year (3287 deaths a day), with 25-50 million injured or disabled for the worldwide statistics, while about 38,000 die in the U.S. each year from auto wrecks.

      Are our political leaders shutting down society for the flu or stopping auto travel because of deaths on the roadway? The answer is no.  So why are they willing to close down society to deal with the coronavirus, which has represented only a small smaller risk to the general population?  Life is full of risks that must be considered, mitigated, and dealt with.  But society must continue to function.

      Poor Response and Lack of Testing

      As the virus began to spread in China, the U.S. needed to develop a coherent plan for understanding and dealing with the crisis.  This did not happen.   President Trump probably made the right call about cutting off travel to China, but the lack of coherent planning beyond that is apparent.  The lack of testing is a major failure of his administration and others.

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      A key capability is to develop sufficient testing resources to determine the progression of the disease in the U.S.  This was sorely lacking, and the flawed testing developed by the CDC was one example of it.  Other countries have tested vastly greater numbers of individuals.  Importantly, the U.S. has not begun randomly test the general population to determine the extent of spread among U.S. residents.

      The Extreme Cost of the Current “Social Distancing” Approach

      Currently, the “social distancing” approach is being stressed by politicians and others.   The idea is that by canceling schools and large public gatherings, coupled with workers working online from home, there will be a reduction of coronavirus community spread, reducing the peak in the number of cases and put less stress on the limited resources of the medical community.  This is illustrated by the figures below.  You notice the number of cases doesn’t change (the area under the curve).  And it has another issue:  it greatly extends the period in which society is affected by the disease.

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      The cost of social distancing is immense, something many politicians do not seem to have thought through.  The stock market is in free fall, the economy is tanking, colleges are poorly educating their students through questionable online learning, K-12 students aren’t being taught, business is contracting, and workers are losing salaries and being laid off.  The lowest income folks are hurt worst, making “social distancing” highly regressive.   I have read estimates that that the world economy could lose trillions of dollars and that recession is now becoming more likely in the U.S.  

      Social distancing may be attractive for  a short period to slow the virus, but in the end it is not sustainable.  It is also inefficient.  In an attempt to prevent the virus from getting to elderly people with health problems, a huge population that does not have the disease or unlikely to get very sick from it is restrained from normal activity.  Something more effective is needed, something I would call “smart quarantine.”  More on that later.

      A number of the local politicians and others have been motivated to try massive social distancing based on a modeling study completed by several local researchers, suggesting only extreme social distancing can prevent a massive increase in cases and up to 400 deaths in our region.  This is a relatively simple model approach, which from my reading does not consider the variation of death rate with age, or the varying social interactions with age.  It assumes a uniform death rate of 1.6 %.   I think it would be useful to test an alternative strategy, based mainly on testing those that are not ill, and removing those people from social interaction.

      Media, Politicians, and the Web:  How and why they can promote panic

      The tendency for stampeding the population into panic and promoting actions that are in the end counterproductive is a real risk of the current political and media landscape.

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      For politicians, there is the potential for endless attention, with opportunities to give sober pronouncements and promote increasingly harsh measures.  Resources become freely available from a worried citizenry.  And the situation provides fuel to attack political foes, as is apparent with the attacks on Trump for virtually every action he takes (and some have been reasonable, like the China ban).  That said, President Trump is certainly guilty of underplaying the seriousness of the situation and providing inaccurate information.  The lack of testing is a massive failure.  There is, however, plenty of bipartisan blame to go around for ineffective responses.

      For the media, the situation is a bonanza, with huge increases in attention, which promotes more “clicks” and revenue. An increasingly isolated and home-bound populace is glued to the constant media barrage, promoting fear and anxiety.

      A highly connected population, unlike any population before, is unable to escape the incessant coronavirus coverage that is constantly featuring the latest death and shut-down.

      Another Way

      So it there another way to deal with the coronavirus epidemic that could be more effective and far less cost to society?  I suspect there is.   This approach would take advantage of several unique and new aspects of the current situation:

      • The fact that young and healthy people, the bulwark of our nation’s productive capacity, are only minimally affected by the coronavirus.

      • That most of the mortality is among the sick and elderly.

      • That the technology to test millions of individuals quickly is available.

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      Perhaps these facts allow us to deal with the situation in a dramatically new way.  If a rational actor was running the response, perhaps they would:

      1.   Protect the most vulnerable with all available resources.  All nursing facilities, retirement homes, and the like would be essentially quarantined, with all patients and staff tested for the virus, with those testing positive isolated from the remainder.  All visitors would have to be tested.  All individuals who are over 60 and possessing serious health problems would be asked to self-quarantine, with food and other assistance provided to allow them to reduce contact with the outside community.

      2.  Extensive random testing of the general population would be initiated, with millions of tests available for this purpose.  Such general testing would allow a determination of the extent of COVID-19 spread and the isolation of affected individuals and their close associates.  This is what I call “smart quarantine”– the use of massive testing to identify the carriers and currently sick and to take them out of circulation.

      3.  A fund to provide salaries for quarantined individuals would be initiated.  This would encourage all individuals to be tested and encourage financially marginal individuals to isolate themselves.

      4.  Social distancing would end and all schools reopened within a month..   It is poor public policy to cripple education and the productive capacity of individuals that are the bulwark of the U.S. economy, particularly since most of them are not at risk for serious impacts of the coronavirus.  Sustained social distancing is not a long term solution.

      5.  Federal grants will be initiated to support additional hospital costs, the acquisition of additional medical supplies and equipment, and the huge testing program.

      This measures would help pull the nation back from the brink of economic disaster, effectively restrain the crisis, and restore normal life to most individuals.

      The American people have a long history of panicking when they are threatened, at enormous financial and human cost.  After 9/11, the American people agreed to loss of privacy and civil liberties, and allowed a tragic invasion of Iraq.  And after the attack on Pearl Harbor, fears of a third column led to the internment and loss of liberty of over 100,000 Japanese Americans.   Hopefully, fears of coronavirus won’t lead to the unnecessary destruction of our economy and the undermining of the prospects of many Americans.  A creative solution to this crisis may be possible, acting as  bridge to the situation a year from now when hopefully a vaccine will be available.


      Tyler Durden

      Fri, 03/13/2020 – 22:05

    • Americans Split Over Whether Movie Theaters Should Close Amid Outbreak
      Americans Split Over Whether Movie Theaters Should Close Amid Outbreak

      As the virus containment window has likely expired for many large US metropolitan areas, it would suggest confirmed Covid-19 cases and deaths are expected to rise in the days, if not weeks ahead. 

      With the flood of virus announcements developing in King County, Washington; Santa Clara, California; Los Angeles; and the Tri-state area, Americans are still not taking the pandemic seriously. 

       

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      Americans are perplexed by the severity of the virus outbreak, which was seen in the most recent Hollywood Reporter/Morning Consult poll, suggesting that many were split on whether movie theaters should shut down to prevent further transmission of the virus. 

      The poll found 38% of US adults believe shuttering movie theaters to contain the virus outbreak is a good idea, and shockingly, 44% opposed the containment measures. The survey was conducted from March 5-7 among 2,200 adults across the country. 

      Earlier this week, we noted the virus could stay airborne for 30 minutes and travel up to 14 feet, implying that movie theaters are significant breeding grounds, sort of like cruise ships. 

      The reason Americans feel indifferent about virus prevention measures is that the government and mainstream media downplayed the severity of Covid-19 for months, calling it no worse than the flu, which, by the way, ended on Wednesday, when Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), said the fast-spreading virus is “10 times more lethal than the seasonal flu.”

      So now, major cities have community spreading and are past the point of implementing containment measures to control the outbreak, such as closing down 41,000-plus movie screens across the country. 

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      What’s astonishing is that the rate of US containment measures is happening at such a slow speed compared to China earlier this year, who immediately shut down 70,000 movie theaters as confirmed cases in the country started to rise. 

      Despite the US government and corporations acting at snail-speed to protect their citizens, all because it would crash the economy and stock market, people are starting to recognize that maybe Covid-19 is more than just the flu. Theater stocks, such as AMC, Imax, and Regal owner Cineworld, have plunged in recent weeks on fears that consumers will stay home. About 46% of respondents in the study said they support the future “postponing all upcoming movie premieres.”

      Some 40% of respondents said theater chains should do more to help in the fight to combat the virus. And in our view, that means theaters should be closed for the next two months, similar to what Carnival Corp. announced on Thursday morning by suspending its Princess Cruises Line. But again, in America, profits over human safety – so we’ll see if shutdowns actually come, or maybe people will follow the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) guidelines of “social distancing.” 

      Roughly 43% of respondents said they agreed with the decision to postpone the new James Bond flick No Time to Die. We noted earlier this week that movie premiers and filming productions are being delayed or canceled across the world for the first half of the year.

      There’s some evidence that the virus outbreak could greatly benefit online streaming platforms, such as Netflix and Hulu. About 21% of respondents in the new THR/Morning Consult survey signed up for streaming services since the virus crisis began, and 43% said they would be watching more movies at home during the pandemic. 


      Tyler Durden

      Fri, 03/13/2020 – 21:45

    • Your 12-Point 'Great Depression II' Survival Guide
      Your 12-Point ‘Great Depression II’ Survival Guide

      Authored by MN Gordon via EconomicPrism.com,

      Bull Market RIP

      And just like that – after a magnificent 11 year run – the bull market in U.S. stocks is dead.  From its peak close of 29,551 on February 12 through yesterday’s [Thursday] close of 21,200, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has dropped over 28 percent – in just 30 days!  RIP.

      Death may mark the end.  The completion of the circle of life.  But it also marks the beginning of something new.

      The death of the bull market, for example, marks the birth of a new bear market.  By our estimation, the DJIA must fall an additional 30 percent – approximately – before the bear market dies and a new bull market is born.

      Between now and then, the central planners in command at the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury will do anything and everything to jumpstart the old bull market back to life.  On Thursday, Fed Chair Powell grabbed Hank Paulson’s bazooka and fired off a cumulative $4 trillion repo bailout.  But, alas, Powell’s bazooka was loaded with blanks.

      After a brief paring back of losses, the DJIA resumed its downward trajectory, closing the day down 2,353 – or nearly 10 percent.  The stock market, you see, knows something that Powell doesn’t know.  That is, the damage being done to businesses, in an effort to control the spread of coronavirus, is destroying the economy.

      Layoffs.  Shuttered doors.  Empty ports.  Quiet railroads.  Suspended sports and entertainment venues.  No Disneyland.  Oil price collapse.  No March Madness.  More layoffs.  Tom Hanks.  Bankruptcies.  Empty shelves.  Panic.  Sovereign debt crisis.  And soon to be empty bellies…

      The ultimate impact, in terms of GDP contraction, will tailspin the economy into a depression…perhaps, The Great Depression II.  The stock market, regardless of what Powell wants, is pricing this reality accordingly.

      There’s no escaping it…

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      Can’t Run, Can’t Hide

      You can’t run.  You can’t hide.  Remember, no one here gets out alive.  Though you aren’t totally helpless…

      You can tempt fate.  You can rage against the forces of destiny.  By this, you can place bets that are at odds with the madness of crowds.  Of course, this must be done before the inflection point; before the herd runs off the cliff…not after.

      For example, during periods of economic chaos, physical gold and silver and arable land are proven vehicles for wealth preservation.  No doubt, those with the means and fortitude to do so have already diversified some of their savings into these established crisis hedges.

      Those who haven’t can only blame themselves.  There have been ample warning signs over the last year – or more – that financial markets were ripe for a crisis.  It didn’t take half a brain to clue in on this.

      And it didn’t take much in the way of resources to place a bet or two that something ‘might could’ go wrong.  Even the lowly working stiff, with a small inkling of what was coming, could have taken a pass on shares of Apple and traded a small wad of paper bucks for a junk silver bag or two.

      With a little luck, these proven wealth preservation vehicles will safely traverse the valley of the shadow of death to whatever economic order emerges when the crisis abates.  At that point, we suspect paper dollars will trade at par with fire kindling, whereas silver and gold will retain their stored value.

      Indeed, gold and silver have gotten shellacked this week.  But, as night follows day, once this panic liquidation episode subsides, and the implications of fiscal and monetary currency debasement are realized, gold and silver will take off.  You can count on it.

      In the interim, escaping to a country house or a mountain cabin is an appealing option to ride out the depression – assuming you have one to escape to.  If not, the months ahead may validate the wisdom of having freeze dried food storage and a productive vegetable garden.  Assuming you’re prepared with a little food storage and gold, you can calmly hunker down and avoid large crowds.

      Other than that, the best thing to do is to try and stay out of the way as the traveling circus blows through town.  Hence, what follows are several proven, practical ideas, including a 12-Point Great Depression II Survival Guide, that anyone can follow to avoid taking this crisis square on the chin…

      Your 12-Point Great Depression II Survival Guide

      On November 21, 2008, when the sky was falling, and following many reader inquiries, we attempted to offer – from the heart – practical, discretionary advice on what to do to survive the economic crisis.  At the time, it served our readers well.

      For your benefit today, and by reader request, we’ll revisit it…with some minor touch ups.  We recommend printing this out, and tacking it to your office corkboard, so you can refer to it during the darkest of days, which are headed our way.

      Your 12-Point Great Depression II Survival Guide:

      1. Always take what’s yours…plus a little bit more.  You’ll undoubtedly need it with Donald J. Trump running riot during an election year.

      2. Never shake hands with your right hand, without first crossing the fingers of your left hand securely behind your back. You never know when you’ll need a do-over.

      3. Always look out for No. 1, save stepping in No. 2.

      4. Never give a beggar your pocket change, except when to do so is to buy them a drink.

      5. Know the difference between honesty with yourself and honesty with others.  The former must be rigorous; the later must be flexible…especially when applying for insurance.

      6. Never kick a man when he is down; so too, never hasten to help him up.

      7. Never stiff your barber. He’ll be your last resort for relief via bloodletting and fire cupping, should things get bad enough.

      8. Never con widows and orphans; all others are fair game.

      9. Do not worry about money; what you don’t have should be of little concern.

      10. Never forget that there’s a fool on every corner and a sucker born every minute.  Avoid being one of them when at all possible; for it is both demoralizing and expensive.

      11. Do not take it personal when you lose your job. This economy’s circling the toilet bowl; before this is over a lot of other good people will lose their job too.

      12. Remember, always, that this too shall pass; though never fast enough.  So keep your head up. For even during a depression the birds still sing, the flowers still bloom, and those of sound mind and body get through it a little wiser…if not a lot slimmer.


      Tyler Durden

      Fri, 03/13/2020 – 21:25

    • After 79% Sales Crash In February, China Automakers Beg Government For Bailout
      After 79% Sales Crash In February, China Automakers Beg Government For Bailout

      We had been reporting China’s February auto sales numbers on a week by week basis, so Zero Hedge readers knew they were going to be ugly for the month. They just didn’t know how ugly.

      Industry wide, sales fell 79% in February, marking the biggest ever monthly plunge on record, according to Reuters. 

      And the industry is starting to panic. Automakers are now asking the government for relief after the industry’s collapse, which occurred in the midst of an already-in-progress global recession for automakers. Specifically, they are asking for cuts on the purchase tax for smaller vehicles and support for sales in rural markets, in addition to the easing of emission requirements. 

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      Sales for February fell to just 310,000 vehicles from a year earlier, marking the 20th straight month of declines. 

      Chen Shihua, a senior CAAM official said: “China’s auto sales for February returned to levels not seen since 2005.”

      And the once silver lining of EV sales is no longer. New energy vehicles contracted for an 8th month in a row as the CAAM pleaded the government for more subsidies on NEVs. 

      Yale Zhang, head of Shanghai-based consultancy AutoForesight, said: “The government will consider these proposals but it is unlikely they will launch so many policies. Measures like cuts to the purchase tax, support for rural markets and easing purchase restrictions on new energy vehicles are reasonable and would have an immediate impact.”

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      Auto makers are also asking the CAAM for improved logistics and the support of a resumption of production in Hubei province, where the coronavirus outbreak began. In Hubei, production for China’s automakers had resumed to about 40% of normal output levels, according to a CAAM survey. 

      The CAAM predicts sales numbers will “definitely” rebound in March. A CAAM official said last month that sales are likely to plunge 10% for the first half of 2020. Containing the coronavirus outbreak is going to be key in whether or not the industry rebounds, and by how much. 

      And remember, as production comes back online in China, demand globally will likely be falling off a cliff as other major countries deal with their “Wuhan moments”.


      Tyler Durden

      Fri, 03/13/2020 – 21:05

    • Why 'Price Gouging' Actually Helps During a Crisis
      Why ‘Price Gouging’ Actually Helps During a Crisis

      Authored by Bradley Thomas via The Libertarian Institute,

      As the coronavirus panic heightens, the price of items like hand sanitizer and medical face masks – to the extent they are still available – are skyrocketing.

      CBS News reported last week that “Online, sales of virus protection products have skyrocketed, up 817% in the last two months. Two large bottles of Purell hand sanitizer were on sale for $299 on Amazon. That size normally sells for about $9 a bottle. Another listing, for four boxes of masks, is usually about $20 — it was being sold for more than $1,000.”

      In response, some state governments have already vowed to punish “price gouging.”

      “California’s attorney general told businesses that if they violated price gouging laws, ‘You’d better be prepared to pay the price for your lawbreaking.’ New York City is issuing $500 fines to any stores found price gouging, starting this week,” CBS reported.

      Indeed, even the Department of Justice issued a warning that they “stand(s) ready to make sure that bad actors do not take advantage of emergency response efforts, healthcare providers, or the American people during this crucial time.”

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      The trade group The Consumer Brands Association praised the DOJ’s response, saying “We appreciate the Department of Justice’s swift response to Consumer Brands’ request to combat price gouging and ensure American consumers have access to critical products at affordable prices.”

      But does preventing ‘price gouging’ during times of distress actually help ensure that critical products will remain available at affordable prices? Basic economics tells us no.

      Price controls in times of emergency have negative consequences, just as they do during normal times. When prices aren’t allowed to move in response to changing economic conditions, those who most urgently need these critical items will likely find the shelves empty.

      In the current situation, fear of the spread of the coronavirus has caused demand for virus protection items to skyrocket. But if the sellers of these items are not allowed to raise their prices out of fear of government punishment, the result will be that the first wave of customers will clear out all the available supplies.

      During times of distress like this, people’s demand curves shift. They are now willing to buy more of a good (like hand sanitizer) at any given price. Without a higher price, the first buyers will stock up, leaving no supplies for others in need. There is no incentive to economize; in fact there is incentive for those first in line to buy up more than they actually need to potentially take advantage of shortages and make a profit by selling to those willing to pay a higher price in the black market. 

      If prices are allowed to rise to reflect the greater urgency of demand, however, consumers will limit their purchases to just what they truly need. Those first in line will be far less likely to clean out the shelves, but rather buy the minimum amount needed to ride out the virus scare.

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

      As a result, more people will be able to acquire at least some of the highly-valued products, and supplies are more likely to be available to those who most urgently need the product. As Robert Wenzel at EconomicPolicyJournal.com wrote:

      “If someone wants to buy a mask to travel by subway to go to a movie and the mask is $200, the consumer might think twice and not buy the mask, thus leaving it for someone else. At the same time, a heart surgeon may want to buy a mask to travel the same subway to perform heart surgeries. He might be very willing to pay $200 for a mask.”

      Moreover, freely adjusting prices send important signals to producers about the intensity of demand, providing incentive to suppliers to devote more resources to the production and distribution of the critical items in such high demand.

      Manufacturers of masks and hand sanitizer will be willing to outbid manufactures of other products for the inputs they need to produce the finished product. They may also be willing to invest in more speedy delivery mechanisms to more quickly acquire their needed inputs so that they can increase supplies in a shorter time frame. 

      Allowing for prices to freely adjust to market conditions sends vital signals both to consumers to economize and producers to marshal resources to increase supply. Shortages will be avoided and the most urgent needs will be met. 

      Emotions are running high during the current panic. Part of the emotional response is directed at sellers of critical items like hand sanitizer and medical masks, who are seen as exploiting the desperation of the situation. But government price controls will create shortages, causing those who most urgently need such products, like medical personnel, to do without. 

      As usual, when the government interferes in the market, they can only make a bad situation worse. 


      Tyler Durden

      Fri, 03/13/2020 – 20:45

    • Nomura: "The Market Has Only Just Begun Staring Into The Abyss"
      Nomura: “The Market Has Only Just Begun Staring Into The Abyss”

      While many post-mortems will be written on what, despite Friday’s torrid 9% rebound, has been a historic, unforgettable week which saw the US stock market plunge the most since the worst days of the global financial crisis, one of the more detailed and impactful was that of Nomura’s quant Masanari Takada who put the week’s events in simple, easy to understand context: “In little more than the blink of an eye, the situation has come to look like the 2008 Lehman Brothers crisis all over again.”

      Below we repost some of the key points from his note as we brace for another historic week, especially since something tells us – perhaps the Fed’s failure to normalize the funding situation – that the events from next week will be even more memorable.

      The plunge in US equities yesterday (12 March) pushed weekly returns down to 7.7 standard deviations below the norm. In statistical science, the odds of a greater-than seven-sigma event of this kind are astronomical to the point of being comical (about one such event every 160 billion years).

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      Setting aside legitimate quibbles over the statistical significance of this, we can say with confidence that we are witnessing a history-making market disaster in real-time.

      Looking back at the performance of the DJIA since 1900, market shocks have exceeded the current rout in magnitude on only three occasions: in 1914 (when a growing financial crisis caused trading in US equities to be halted), in 1929 (the historic market crash that led to the Great Depression), and in 1987 (the Black Monday event).

      US stock market sentiment has also seen a jarringly swift collapse, as equity sentiment has now gone beyond the low point marked during the 2015 renminbi shock. In little more than the blink of an eye, the situation has come to look like the 2008 Lehman Brothers crisis all over again.

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      The Fed has resumed its QE-in-all-but-name in response to the financial market meltdown. Many observers have questioned how effective the aid will actually be, given that there seems to be no way to put a conclusive stop to COVID-19. Expanded QE did help lift sentiment in 2015-2016, and therefore think that the Fed can at least help limit the risk of an extreme credit crunch. However, the paralysis in the international circulation of people and goods already being observed will almost inevitably undermine the market.

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      DM equities worldwide are in bear markets now. Going by our own data analysis, the pace of the present sell-off has broken all norms. When a downshift in the market is characterized by unusually steep declines, the usual driver is an outflow from longer-term investments.

      The present market rout is unconventional in that major hedge funds (global macro hedge funds, CTAs) appear to be behind the curve in their selling [ZH: just as Goldman warned this week]. If anything, we see a risk that short-term players may mount an attack on the downside, ramping up their selling in an attempt to push the market down further.

      For example, global macro hedge funds’ net exposure to DM equities (estimated from 30- day rolling beta) is still currently flat or even slightly long. It may be that these investors had been unable to fully imagine a pandemic-driven recession scenario, having no experience in that vein to draw upon. Global macro hedge funds may have taken this week’s abnormal market movements as their cue to simply offload their long positions in DM equities in their entirety.

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      There is a growing risk that global macro hedge funds, after liquidating their long positions, will proceed to aggressively build up short positions. Global macro hedge funds tend not to make spur-of-the-moment trades, but they do tend to stake out positions that are consistent with the macroeconomic outlook.

      In that respect, the S&P 500 dividend yield appears to already reflect market expectations for a slowdown in the US economy. If the ISM Purchasing Managers Index (average of the readings for manufacturers and non-manufacturers) were to drop to the level recorded around July 2009—as the dividend yield seems to imply—there is a high likelihood that global macro hedge funds would then (with some confidence) start expanding their short positions in pursuit of the market downside.

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      Similarly, CTAs appear to have failed to fully keep up with the drop in share prices in major countries. CTAs have of course been selling futures to unwind their long positions during this downward move in share prices. But when share prices shift downward abruptly, the short-term surge in volatility can often hinder trend-followers’ ability to participate in short-selling. This is because systematic trend-following strategies tend to build positions that balance: (1) the strength or weakness of trends; and (2) the level of volatility. This means that CTAs often wind up following one step behind when trends shift suddenly.

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      CTAs have turned short on DJIA futures. Because of the rapid pace of the Dow’s drop, CTAs have been able to build sufficient short positions. As they had already preferred short positions with the DJIA below 28,000, CTAs look likely to build short positions rapidly at current share price levels.

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      It may be, then, that the market has only just begun staring into the abyss.


      Tyler Durden

      Fri, 03/13/2020 – 20:31

    • Democrats Want To Reverse Trump's Travel Bans Despite Coronavirus Spread
      Democrats Want To Reverse Trump’s Travel Bans Despite Coronavirus Spread

      Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

      House Democrats have introduced legislation that would undo President Trump’s travel bans from coronavirus stricken areas, despite the fact that the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) has said that the impact of the crisis would be much worse had the travel bans on China and Iran not been in place.

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      Democrats want to strip the President of the authority to implement the bans, introducing a bill titled the “No Ban Act,” which would allow travellers from Wuhan and other infected areas to keep arriving in the US unimpeded.

      “This bill imposes limitations on the President’s authority to suspend or restrict aliens from entering the United States and terminates certain presidential actions implementing such restrictions,” the bill  summary reads.

      The legislation vaguely says that Trump should only be able to “issue a restriction when required to address a compelling government interest.”

      The bill further declares that before any travel ban is imposed, the President would be mandated to “consult with Congress.”

      Democratic Presidential contender Bernie Sanders also said this week that he would not impose any travel bans during the coronavirus crisis.

      The action flies in the face of advice from Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the NIAID, who told lawmakers during a House Oversight and Reform Committee hearing Wednesday that “I believe we would be in a worse position,” had such travel bans not been imposed by Trump.

      Fauci’s comments come at the 1:00:39 mark

      “Whenever you look at the history of outbreaks, what you see now in an uncontained way and although we are containing it in some respects, we keep getting people coming into the country that are travel-related, we’ve seen that in many of the states that are now involved.” Fauci said.

      “We will see more cases and things will get worse than they are right now. How much worse they get will depend on our ability to do two things: To contain the influx of people who are infected coming from the outside and the ability to contain and mitigate within our own country. Bottom line, it’s going to get worse.” he added.

      Fauci’s comments regarding travel restrictions have been echoed by The New England Journal of Medicine, which recently reported: “At least on a temporary basis, such restrictions may have helped slow the spread of the virus.”

      Trump extended the travel ban Wednesday night to most of Europe (but not the UK) for at least 30 days.

      “The European Union failed to take the same precautions and restrict travel from China and other hot spots,” the president said, adding “As a result, a large number of new clusters in the United States were seeded by travelers from Europe”.

      Trump’s words, and the announcement of the travel restriction drew anger from some European officials, who reportedly described it as “unbelievable” and “very strange.”

      The European Commission and Council issued a joint statement declaring that “The European Union disapproves of the fact that the US decision to impose a travel ban was taken unilaterally and without consultation.”

      “The Coronavirus is a global crisis, not limited to any continent and it requires cooperation rather than unilateral action.” the statement continued.

      Trump was unwavering in his belief that his administration can mitigate the spread of the virus:


      Tyler Durden

      Fri, 03/13/2020 – 20:05

    • Mapping How The World Is Responding To Covid-19
      Mapping How The World Is Responding To Covid-19

      As Covid-19 steamrolls across the world, widespread social, political, and economic disruptions have developed. Each country affected by the fast-spreading virus has followed a similar blueprint of implementing containment measures to control spreading. 

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      Here’s a summary of virus prevention measures on a country by country basis: 

      • China – With 80,932 cases and 3,169 deaths, strict quarantines in the last several months could be working, that is if you trust government data. For anyone entering the country, 14-day quarantines are mandatory. The government has asked citizens to obey strict social distancing rules and ramped up mass surveillance to monitor the public. 

      • South Korea – With 7,869 cases and 66 deaths, government officials have enforced social distancing rules, companies have allowed employees to work at home, and the military has been disinfecting public areas. 

      • Japan – With 639 cases and nine deaths, the government has passed strict border control measures, halted all travel from China and South Korea, and has enforced mandatory quarantines for recent China and South Korean arrivals.

      • Iran – With 10,075 cases and 429 deaths, public gatherings and prayer sessions have been canceled, education and school systems are closed, all forms of public transportation have been disinfectant, and 70,000 prisoners have been released. 

      • Italy – With 12,462 cases and 827 deaths, all public gatherings and sporting events have been canceled. Schools and universities have been closed as strict travel restrictions within the country have been implemented to contain virus spreading. Closure of public services and curfews have been seen in some regions. 

      • France – With 2,284 cases and 48 deaths, mass gatherings have been banned, sporting events canceled, and schools remain closed in some areas. 

      • Spain – With 2,277 cases and 48 deaths, schools and universities are closed, flights to Italy restricted, sporting events postponed, and working hours have been reduced to limit the virus spread.

      • United Kingdom – With 596 cases and 10 deaths, schools will remain open, events and social gatherings are still allowed, and the government has advised anyone who feels sick to stay home.

      • Belgium – With 314 cases and 3 deaths, mass gatherings have been banned, school trips canceled, and social distancing measures are required to be followed by all citizens. 

      • Ireland – With 43 cases and 1 death, mass gatherings have been canceled, schools and colleges closed, along with the expectation that public facilities will be shuttered in the near term. 

      • United States – Mass gatherings restricted in California, National Guard deployed in New York, education systems in some states closed, CDC has asked citizens to follow social distancing rules, and travel from mainland Europe canceled. 

      The US has been the slowest to implement virus prevention measures, likely missing the containment window by weeks if not a month for many large cities, as community spreading has been reported. Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, was quoted by Reuters on Friday morning as saying, “the next few weeks, for most Americans, what you’re going to see is an acceleration of cases.” And with that being said, is America about to transform into Italy or South Korea? 


      Tyler Durden

      Fri, 03/13/2020 – 19:45

    • China Quietly Filling U.S. Vacuum In The Philippines
      China Quietly Filling U.S. Vacuum In The Philippines

      Authored by Jason Cataneda via The Asia Times,

      President Rodrigo Duterte’s cancellation of key strategic pact with US has opened the way for Chinese infiltration

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      As President Rodrigo Duterte moves to boot US troops from Philippine soil through the cancellation of a key defense pact, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is quietly moving in to take their place.

      Duterte’s recent decision to abrogate the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA), which allowed the US to rotate troops and position equipment in the country, is opening the way for China to solidify its competing strategic position in the country.

      That’s at least according to early findings of investigations into China’s undercover and illicit activities, ranging reputedly from espionage to surveillance to money laundering, now being spearheaded by Philippine Senator Richard Gordon.

      Those probes have included scrutiny of the hundreds of thousands of Chinese citizens now employed in the burgeoning online casino sector, known locally as Philippine Offshore Gaming Operations (POGOs), many of which are clustered close to key military camps and strategic bases in Manila, the national capital.

      Gordon has claimed that the POGOS have been infiltrated by PLA soldiers for intelligence gathering and other activities. Those claims were validated when two card-carrying PLA members attached to a POGO were were arrested in a shooting incident in Manila late last month.

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      Anti-China protesters during a demonstration in front of the consular office of China, Manila, April 9, 2019. Photo: AFP/Ted Aljibe

      The Senate investigations have revealed a tangled web of official corruption and conspiracy which has allowed countless Chinese citizens, including allegedly between 2,000-3,000 PLA soldiers, to illegally and secretly reside in the country.

      Under the so-called “pastillas” scheme, exposed by whistleblower Allison “Alex” Chiong of the Philippine Bureau of Immigration (BI), Chinese nationals pay roughly 10,000 pesos (US$200) as a “service fee” for special treatment and ease of entry into the country.

      While around $40 of that fee goes to immigration officers, the rest is allegedly spread among senior officials and other allies of the president who oversee the alleged syndicate run out of Manila’s Ninoy Aquino International Airport.

      The money, according to the whistleblower, is rolled inside a sheet of bond paper, similar to how the Philippine milk candy delicacy “pastillas” is packed. That, the investigations claim, has paved the way for so-called Chinese “immersion missions” by PLA members.

      Public anger against the POGOs has recently spiked, fueled by the Duterte government’s belated imposition of a travel ban on Chinese citizens amid the coronavirus outbreak that started its deadly global spread in late January.

      Many believe that wayward officials who benefit from the POGOs and import of illegal Chinese workers played an outsized role in the decision to allow thousands of Chinese citizens, including from Wuhan, the outbreak’s epicenter, to enter the country even after Beijing quarantined all of Hubei province.

      Senator Panfilo Lacson, chairman of the committee on national defense and security and a former police chief, said that he has recently received information from security agencies claiming that thousands of undercover PLA members are engaged in “immersion missions” in the country, with Chinese spies operating under the guise of POGO workers.

      “The intelligence community should exert extra effort to gather information in this regard,” Lacson recently said.

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      Chinese-run gambling operations in the Philippines are under growing scrutiny as potential spy havens. Image: Facebook

      Lacson, Gordon and Senate Minority Leader Franklin Drilon have all recently warned that China aims to take advantage of the new and growing security vacuum caused by Duterte’s recent abrogation of the VFA with the US, a move that has undermined the legal status of the two sides’ 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT).

      The US and Philippines stage thousands of bilateral military activities and exercises each year, including war games that include mock invasions of islands that aim to send a strong signal to China in the South China Sea.

      “That may confirm a yet unvalidated report that a good number of PLA members are on ‘immersion mission’ in several parts of the country, although the reason for it is still unclear,” Lascon said.

      “The police as well as the intelligence community should lose no time in exerting serious efforts to authenticate the discovered PLA using sources independent of the Chinese government, for obvious reasons,” warned the senator.

      Lascon has also claimed that 47 Chinese individuals recently smuggled US$446 million into the Philippines over a recent five month span, whereby the Chinese money launderers paid and made connections with bent Philippine officials.

      Senator Gordon, long seen as a Duterte ally, has warned of large-scale money laundering going hand-in-hand with a potential “fifth column” infiltration of Chinese security forces.

      “There is tolerance. I don’t know where it is coming from,” said Gordon, implying the Beijing-friendly president is partly responsible for the threat, according to media reports.

      “The shenanigans of what we see here, all happened because of the policy decision to allow overseas gaming operations in our country,” said Drilon in directly blaming the Duterte administration.

      “What is happening in our country is apparently rooted in the very presence of POGOs run by the Chinese. If there were no POGOs, all of these nefarious activities would have no purpose,” he added.

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      An aerial photo depicting the location of Chinese-run POGOs and the Philippine military’s headquarters. Source: Defense Forum

      Fears of systematic Chinese espionage activities were sparked last year when netizens shared images showing the suspicious proximity of Chinese-run POGOs to security and law enforcement agencies in Manila.

      Those include POGOs situated near the Philippine Air Force and Navy headquarters, Philippine National Police headquarters at Camp Crame, and Camp Aguinaldo which hosts the Philippine Army and National Defense Department offices.

      “When you already see many people [at the POGOs], who are always there…it’s very easy for all these [Chinese] people to perhaps shift their activities to spying,” Philippine Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana said last year. “They are near [military facilities].”

      Philippine National Security Adviser Hermogenes Esperon, meanwhile, raised alarms last year over the entry of thousands of undocumented Chinese as a potential security “threat”, including through possible PLA surveillance and espionage.

      “You’d also start getting worried when a whole building, condominium, tower is occupied by only one nationality where you would not be able to guard all their activities,” the national security adviser said. “Some unwelcome activities could transpire there so we need to prevent those.”

      It’s not clear yet that Duterte’s pro-China administration will undertake any concrete measures to address these concerns and reputed threats.

      “He [Duterte] told me…We really need the funds from those [POGO] operations,” presidential spokesperson Salvador Panelo said amid an escalating call for their closures. “Because the money we get from whatever [Chinese] sources is for the government, so the government can use that in any undertaking.”


      Tyler Durden

      Fri, 03/13/2020 – 19:25

    • "The Market Is Broken" – Why Nobody Is Trading Any More
      “The Market Is Broken” – Why Nobody Is Trading Any More

      On the first day of this week, which would soon mutate into the worst week for capital markets since the 2008 financial crisis, we warned that markets are about to go full tilt for the simple reason that “there is no liquidity“, something we first highlighted at the start of the month when we pointed out “Two More Problems For The Bulls: Market Liquidity And Short Interest Are At All Time Lows.“

      Why our constant focus on liquidity? Because as Goldman explained on Thursday, “liquidity and volatility are interconnected, creating a self-reinforcing loop, and as a result liquidity conditions have been an important contributor to the velocity of recent S&P 500 moves.” Yet while liquidity had dipped in the past on numerous stressed occasions, what we saw in recent days has been borderline biblical as top-of-book depth for SPX E-mini futures, typically the conventional metric of liquidity representing the dollar-amount of SPX E-mini futures available to trade electronically on the typically 25-cent wide market, has – as Goldman put it – “started to lose meaning as fewer and fewer market participants are quoting one-tick-wide markets for the futures at all.”

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      As Goldman further explained, as volatility spiked, electronic futures liquidity has fallen to the point where there has been a median of just 10 contracts, representing $1.5mm notional, on the bid and ask of E-mini futures screens over the past week (compared with a median of 120 contracts, representing $18mm notional, in 2019).

      The implication of this small number of contracts quoted was that very few market makers are quoting 25 cent wide markets at all. At the same time the frequency of E-mini futures showing wider-than-one tick markets has risen sharply; and according to Goldman’s estimates, during Monday’s severe sell-off, E-mini futures had 50 cent wide markets more than 25% of the time, more than double the frequency seen on 24-Dec-2018. The key takeaway of diminished liquidity, however measured, is that individual trades can move markets more than they otherwise would have, leading to higher volatility.

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      A key reason for the latest drop in liquidity has, curiously, been the concurrent drop in trading volumes: SPX future and option volumes were materially lower over the past week than they had been in the initial days of this market downturn (although they were still high relative to normal periods).

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      One surprising contributor to lighter-than-expected volumes over the past week has been slowing trading needs from the SPX option market, for two reasons:

      1. Option volumes have slowed, particularly soon-to-expire options. As shown below, SPX option activity has been slower over the past week than it was earlier in the drawdown, resulting in less delta-hedging flow.

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      Activity in soon-to-expire SPX options with less than 24 hours to expiration has also trended downward over the past few days despite high volatility. Stated simply, Goldman sees the extreme level of option prices as a barrier to entry for many market participants.

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      2. Most 20-Mar options have strikes much higher than current spot. Goldman goes on to note that many of its clients have mentioned the large activity in 20-Mar expiration SPX options, dating back to August, as a reason for concern about gamma impact. While the 20-Mar expiration is currently one of the largest-ever, by open interest, rivaling the always-large December expirations, most of its $1.7 trillion of open interest is at strikes well higher than the current SPX level, and was created in the last three months.

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      As a result, this expiration no longer has any relevant gamma profile at the current spot range.

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      Yet while this may explain much of the collapsing equity market liquidity, an even more ominous development is the cratering liquidity across all asset classes, as we discussed on Monday, and which we attributed to the ongoing systemic shock that is rapidly draining dollar funding from the system and which the Fed, as of late Friday afternoon, has been unable to resolve despite trillions in repo and QE backstops announced over the past 48 hours.

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      And so, after we first lamented the collapse in bond market liquidity at the start of the week, Bloomberg is there at the end of it, to confirm that not only has the situation not gotten better, it has in fact gotten worse, to wit: “The deepest bond market in the world is struggling with a lack of liquidity to a degree that veteran asset managers say they’ve never seen before.”

      The $17 trillion U.S. Treasury market is creaking as it feels the full force of trader panic over the coronavirus and its effect on the global economy. Thirty-year yields jumped as much as 35 basis points Friday before paring most of that increase. The Treasury’s longest maturity has moved in a double-digit range every day this week. Trading in off-the-run Treasuries, which are the older cousins of benchmark issues, has been particularly difficult.

      And so, one day after we first reported that according to BofA the US Treasury market, the world’s largest and most liquid, is no longer functioning properly. 

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      Indeed, the staggering moves in the bond market itself have been the best indicator of just how illiquid it has become: on Monday, 30-year yields posted the biggest intraday decline since at least October 1998, followed by a bizarre last hour crash even as stocks continued to sell. And while a massive injection of cash from the Federal Reserve, President Donald Trump’s plan to declare a national emergency and hopes for fiscal support lifted stocks Friday, analysts and investors say the U.S. government-debt market is still not functioning properly.

      “Liquidity is still atrocious,” said Mark Holman, chief executive officer at TwentyFour Asset Management. Mark here laments something we said earlier: while some traders may have found trades in the insane rollercoaster market we observed in the past few days, they were unable to take put the trades on as there simply was not enough – or any – liquidity:

      “We were just trying on Monday to trim a long position in the 30-year Treasury because it had moved so far in our favor, and were unable to get bids from several major dealers. We’ve never seen that before.“

      “I understand that dealers don’t have the risk appetite and budget they normally have,” said Holman, who unlike most active “traders” today has in fact seen a bear market in his career which stretches back to 1989. “But I’ve never seen that before, the inability to trade a U.S. Treasury.”

      Meanwhile, confirming our Friday observations that liquidity is not only cataclysmic but getting worse, Goldman points out that a pair of block trades in Treasury futures printed well below market levels on Friday in a sign that conditions remain volatile. Traders also reported a shortage of prices on screens, while futures on U.S. ultra bonds hit circuit breakers repeatedly during Friday morning trading in Europe.

      ““We heard there were some issues in off-the-run Treasuries,” Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on CNBC Friday morning. “We are working on that”… but apparently not enough, and the result was the biggest VaR shock of all time as risk parity funds launched a crushing deleveraging which has crippled conventional correlations, and left traders speechless at the bid or offerless Treasury markets.

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      And as risk parity funds were caught in a liquidation cascade, both the equity and Treasury markets became unstable to the point of being untradeable. After starting the week off below 1%, 30-year yields soared to 1.79% amid the margin call liquidation rout, with bid-offer spreads surging to the highest level in years.

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      It wasn’t just the US: German Bunds also saw yields surge after Germany finally caved and said the country would spend billions to cushion the economy.

      The forced selling by certain funds meant that dealers were flying blind, and as a result many refused to make orderly markets, only adding to the market paralysis. “Very few dealers are willing to commit to firm prices on screens, said Zoeb Sachee, head of European government-bond trading at Citigroup Inc.

      “There has been an abrupt deterioration in liquidity in the last week or so and it seems to get worse by the day.”

      Just as we warned two weeks ago.

      Finally, adding insult to injury, volatility – both for stocks and bonds – continues to surge. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch MOVE Index, which measures price swings in Treasuries, and the VIX both jumped to the highest levels since the financial crisis.

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      “We have seen such aggressive moves in the market that everyone is having to rebalance, address losses, or de-risk,” Richard Kelly, head of global strategy at TD Bank, although he was clearly ignoring the shorts for whom the current market shock has been the gift they had all been waiting for for the past decade.

      “We are at the stage where central banks need to provide exceptional liquidity into the market to make sure that basic markets can function.”

      But the real question is whether central banks can even do that: after a catastrophic ECB press conference which led to the biggest European market crash in history, and two days of unprecedented Fed interventions, stocks barely noticed, and it wasn’t until Trump made some vague promises on Friday afternoon that risk finally found a bid. This backdrop means that Fed policy makers when they meet next week have to not only cut rates but take additional action to shore up liquidity in the financial system, said Alex Li, head of U.S. rates strategy at Credit Agricole. That could include a special liquidity program, such as efforts undertaken during the financial crisis, he said, echoing Credit Suisse’s Zoltan Pozsar who now expects the Fed effectively launch every liquidity bailout operation  possible, save for purchasing stocks outrght.

      “The Fed just cutting rates again at this stage is really not the right medicine,” Li said.”‘The Treasury market is broken — with it being very illiquid. There’s very wide spreads between on- and off-the-run spreads,” and other signs of dislocation.

      Let’s just hope Jerome Powell, who first diagnosed the real problem with the US capital markets back in 2012, knows how to fix them.


      Tyler Durden

      Fri, 03/13/2020 – 19:05

    • US Equity Market Crashes Below 2007 Highs Despite Massive Surge On Trump Stimulus Plan
      US Equity Market Crashes Below 2007 Highs Despite Massive Surge On Trump Stimulus Plan

      Today saw the biggest spike in US equities since October 2008 after an avalanche of intervention in the last 24 hours across the world and extended by 1600 Dow points as Trump unveiled his stimulus/testing plan…

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      The last time the market rallied this much was 10/28/2008 – the day TARP was announced…

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      However, the S&P fell 35% further after that TARP bounce…

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      But, overall, the market just suffered its fastest, most aggressive collapse into a bear market… ever…

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      But even more ominously, the broadest measure of the US equity market – The NYSE Composite Index – has collapsed below the 2007 highs (despite trillions in added liquidity)…

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      Ray Dalio nailed the top…

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      We’re sorry but no clip better serves as an analogy for this Minsky Moment than this one…

      US equity markets ended the week on a stronger note, big gains overnight (limit up in futures), a plunge at the cash open, only to rebound when rumors hit that the President would declare a National Emergency (implicitly some fiscal largesse) and when he announced his plans, the market went vertical… this was the best day for stocks since 10/28/08…

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      This was the market’s worst week since Oct 2008, but Small Caps’ 20% crash this week is the worst since 1987 (Small Caps’ 3-week plunge of 30% is the worst ever)

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      European stocks were hit hard this week too (Italy down over 23% on the week – worst week in history)…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      And even Chinese stocks sold off with ChiNext hit hardest…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      Direct-Virus-impacted sectors were monkeyhammered this week…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      Banks were battered (but bounced today)…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      VIX surged higher this week at an unprecedented pace, closing near record highs…

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      The VIX term structure collapsed to its most inverted since Lehman this week…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      Investment Grade credit crashed this week – by our record this is the biggest weekly spread decompression in history…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      HY credit risk also exploded this week – again the biggest weekly decompression in our datasets…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      Stocks and bonds were dumped unceremoniously this week…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      As Risk-Parity Funds saw the biggest deleveraging losses in history…

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      Bonds suffered a total bloodbath this week – despite the collapse in stocks, with the end of day seeing a melt-up in rates…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      30Y yields exploded higher this week after Sunday night’s crash to record lows. Today saw 30Y spike to 1.79% intraday before tumbling back to 1.39% on the Fed’s emergency QE today…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      After collapsing to 69bps on Sunday night/Monday morning, this week’s blowout on yields is the biggest ever…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      But most worryingly, the Bond ETF world really started to break as massive, unprecedented discounts occurred in Treasury, Muni, and HY Credit ETFs exposing the illiquidity of the underlying assets…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      In Munis, the SEC restricted short-sales in the ETF to try and maintain some order – it failed.

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      Source: Bloomberg

      Before we leave bond land, we note that CMBX crashed back towards its lows as virus anxiety impacting malls and the credit collapse combine to benefit Carl Icahn’s short…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      And the market is now demanding practically 1 full percentage point cut in rates next week by The Fed…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      The Dollar was massively bid this week as it appears key safe-haven flows – and liquidity demands – sparked a ‘sell-everything-else’ trade worldwide… (3 days this week were the biggest daily gains in the dollar since Nov 2016)

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      Source: Bloomberg

      This was the biggest weekly gain for the dollar since Oct 2008 (Lehman)…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      Japanese Yen had its worst week since Nov 2016…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      This was the worst week for cryptos since April 2013 – a total bloodbath (yes, Bitcoin Cash is down over 50% this week)…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      With Bitcoin crashing below $4,000 intraday

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      Source: Bloomberg

      The surge in the dollar this week did not help but commodities were clubbed like baby seals as it seemed someone was mass liquidating everything in a scramble for cash…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      This was WTI’s worst week since Dec 2008 (and biggest 3-week drop ever)…

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      Gold suffered its worst week since Sept 2011, smashed back below $1600…

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      Silver also saw its worst week since Sept 2011…

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      And perhaps the most stunning moves were in precious metals among all this chaos as gold slumped into the red for the year and high-flying palladium was destroyed…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      Finally, this was the worst weekly loss for a ‘diversified’ book of bonds and stocks since Lehman…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      And, if you’re wondering where this ends, it’s simple – below 2,000 for the S&P 500… as the last five years of equity market gains have been total delusion…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      And if you thought The Fed’s Trillion-dollar-plus care-package helped… it didn’t! FRA-OIS spreads continued to blow out, strongly suggesting massive dollar shortages and/or fear of systemic bank credit risks…

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      Source: Bloomberg


      Tyler Durden

      Fri, 03/13/2020 – 19:02

    • FBI's Russia Collusion Case Fell Apart In First Month Of Trump Presidency, Memos Show
      FBI’s Russia Collusion Case Fell Apart In First Month Of Trump Presidency, Memos Show

      Authored by John Solomon via JustTheNews.com,

      The piecemeal release of FBI files in the Russia collusion investigation has masked an essential fact: James Comey’s G-men had substantially debunked the theory that Donald Trump’s campaign conspired with Moscow by the time the 45th president was settling into the Oval Office, according to declassified memos, court filings and interviews.

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      And that means a nascent presidency and an entire nation were put through two more years of lacerating debate over an issue that was mostly resolved in January 2017 inside the bureau’s own evidence files.

      The proof is now sitting in plain view.

      In rapid fire sequence in January 2017, U.S. officials:

      • received multiple warnings about the credibility of informant Christopher Steele and his dossier;

      • affirmed key targets of the FBI counterintelligence investigation made exculpatory statements denying collusion to undercover sources;

      • concluded retired Lt. Gen. Mike Flynn, Trump’s first national security adviser, was not engaged in collusion with the Russians.

      The latter revelation has mostly escaped much notice, contained in a single sentence in a once-sealed court motion filed by Flynn defense attorney Sidney Powell that requested what is known as Brady material, or evidence of innocence.

      That motion dated Sept. 11, 2019 requested access to “an internal DOJ document dated January 30, 2017, in which the FBI exonerated Mr. Flynn of being ‘an agent of Russia.’”

      Flynn’s motion is confirmed by a 2018 letter obtained by Just the News between Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s office and defense lawyers. It shows the DOJ exoneration memo was written after Flynn had been interviewed by FBI agents in January 2017 and after the government learned the former Defense Intelligence Agency chief had kept his old agency briefed on his contacts with Russia, something that weighed heavily against the notion he was aiding Moscow.

      “According to an internal DOJ memo dated January 30, 2017, after the Jan. 24 interview, the FBI advised that based on the interview the FBI did not believe Flynn was acting as an agent of Russia,” Mueller’s team wrote in the letter.

      U.S. District Judge Emmett Sullivan so far has concluded that the exoneration of Flynn on the Russia collusion charge wasn’t relevant to his conviction since he pled guilty to a different crime, making a false statement to the FBI.

      But for the American public, such a revelation is momentous. 

      Less than two weeks into Trump’s presidency the FBI had concluded his national security adviser had not been working as an agent of Russia. While that was the view of federal law enforcement, the false storyline of Flynn as a Russian stooge was broadcasted across the nation, with leaks of his conversations with a Russian ambassador and other tales, for many more months.

      In an interview with Just the News and its John Solomon Reports podcast, Powell confirmed she was provided by letter three sentences from the DOJ memo but has been unable to get the full document. 

      “It’s just horrible,” Powell said. “They gave us a little three lines summary of it and the letter and told us it existed but have refused to give us the actual document, which I know means there’s a lot of other information in it that would be helpful to us.”

      Powell also confirmed that Mueller was fully aware of a letter sent in early January 2017 to Flynn from Britain’s national security adviser raising concerns about Steele’s credibility.

      The British government “hand-delivered” a letter to Flynn’s team that “totally disavowed any credibility of Christopher Steele, and would have completely destroyed the Russia collusion narrative,” Powell said.

      Flynn himself has no memory of receiving the communique, but people around him at the time do and confirmed the existence of the document, Powell explained. Flynn was questioned about it during his debriefings by Mueller’s team, she added.

      “I was told that a copy of the document would have been given to [then-National Security Adviser] Susan Rice as well,” she added. “So the Obama administration knew full well that the entire Russia collusion mess was a farce.”

      Instead of responding to the British government’s warning by abandoning the Russia collusion narrative and sparing her client the years-long ordeal of being targeted for investigation, top U.S. intelligence officials hid the communication, Powell said.

      Her account confirms information that Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) provided for a May 2019 article for The Hill.

      Other significant red flags also emerged in January 2017 that the Russia collusion theory used by the FBI to open a Trump campaign-focused probe in July 2016 was simply wrong. So too was the evidence the FBI submitted to secure an October 2016 FISA warrant targeting Trump campaign adviser Carter Page.

      According to information made public by Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz and the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court, the FBI interviewed Steele’s primary sub-source around Jan. 7, 2017. That source disavowed much of the Russia collusion evidence attributed to him in the dossier, a fact the bureau hid from the court.

      A recent order by FISC Chief Judge James Boasberg lays bare how devastating the revelation from Steele’s source was to the entire Russia collusion theory.

      “Steele obtained this information from a primary sub-source, who had, in tum, obtained the information from his/her own source network,” the judge wrote.

      “The FBI did not, however, advise DOJ or the Court of inconsistencies between sections of Steele’s reporting that had been used in the applications and statements Steele’s primary sub-source had made to the FBI about the accuracy of information attributed to ‘Person 1,’ who the FBI assessed had been the source of the information in Reports 95 and 102. The government also did not disclose that Steele himself had undercut the reliability of Person 1, telling the FBI that Person 1 was a ‘boaster’ and an ‘egoist’ and ‘may engage in some embellishment.'”

      An FBI spreadsheet similarly found that nearly all of Steele’s information in the dossier was either false, could not be proved, or amounted to Internet-based rumor, making it mostly worthless as actionable intelligence.

      Further eroding by January 2017 the FBI’s “mosaic” (former FBI Director James Comey’s term) of evidence cited for suspicions of collusion, the bureau had collected exculpatory statements in fall 2016 in which two central targets of the investigation — former Trump advisers Carter Page and George Papadopoulos — told undercover informants they were not colluding with Russia.

      Boasberg’s ruling also slammed the FBI for hiding these statements from his court, saying they substantially undercut the FBI’s predicate for the investigation, including the now-disproven allegation that Page had altered the RNC platform at the 2016 nominating convention to help Putin.

      “The government also omitted Page’s statements to a confidential human source that he intentionally had ‘stayed clear’ of efforts to change the Republican platform, as well as evidence tending to show that two other Trump campaign officials were responsible for the change,” the judge wrote. “Both pieces of information were inconsistent with the government’s suggestion that, at the behest of the Russian government, Page may have facilitated a change to the Republican platform regarding Russia ‘s annexation of part of Ukraine.”

      The Horowitz report confirms the court’s finding in much greater detail.

      Flynn was cleared of being a Russian agent in January 2017. That same month Steele’s dossier was both discredited by the British government and repudiated by his own confidential sources. And the FBI had evidence its two main Trump targets were innocent. All as President Trump was starting his first two weeks in office.

      Congressional investigators are now looking at whether Comey’s approach to Trump at a Feb. 14, 2017 dinner at the White House may have been part of an effort to pivot away from the bogus Russia collusion investigation and lay a predicate for a new investigation focused on possible obstruction of justice. Those same investigators also are inquiring as to why Mueller’s final report did not more clearly spell out how the FBI’s collusion case fell apart in January 2017.

      Wherever that congressional inquiry lands, there is now clear and convincing evidence that the country, the president and the courts were kept in the dark about an historic turnaround in the evidence in January 2017, even as defendants were being pressured to plead guilty to crimes unrelated to the collusion allegation. Time will tell whether those who kept this secret for two more years will be held to account.


      Tyler Durden

      Fri, 03/13/2020 – 18:45

    • DARPA's Pandemic Prevention Platform Could Develop Therapeutic "Shield" To Fight Covid-19 By Summer
      DARPA’s Pandemic Prevention Platform Could Develop Therapeutic “Shield” To Fight Covid-19 By Summer

      The Pentagon’s most secretive military research department is developing a therapeutic “shield” that could provide a new way to boost American’s immunity to Covid-19, reported DefenseOne. 

      The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency’s (DARPA) Pandemic Prevention Platform (PPP) is not in search of a vaccine against the fast-spreading virus that is now considered a pandemic, but rather is developing an advanced therapy that seeks to boost the immune system of people until an actual vaccine is developed. The result could prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed by sick people. 

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      DARPA scientists working on PPP have been sequencing the B cells of a Covid-19 patient who has recovered. B cells, also known as B lymphocytes, are a type of white blood cell that produces antibodies that aid the immune system in its fight to fend off an invading microorganism.

      “We are able to take a patient that has recovered from this pathogen [Covid-19], for example, and we are able to sequence many of their B cells. So those cells that make those antibodies that help protect you against those pathogens? We are now able to sequence all of those because of next-generation sequencing approaches,” Dr. Amy Jenkins, manager of PPP, told DefenseOne. 

      If scientists can successfully sequence the B cells, they could create a new therapy with a “manufacturing timeline” in a little over three months, Jenkins said. It would buy some time, considering a proven vaccine is 12-18 months away. 


      Tyler Durden

      Fri, 03/13/2020 – 18:25

    Digest powered by RSS Digest

    Mar 13

    Today’s News 13th March 2020

    • Erdogan Blasts "Nazi" Greeks For Denying' Refugees' Access To Europe
      Erdogan Blasts “Nazi” Greeks For Denying’ Refugees’ Access To Europe

      Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Wednesday that he would continue to flood migrants and refugees into Europe until European officials satisfied his demands, reported France 24. 

      Erdogan said Greece’s treatment of migrants and refugees at the Greece–Turkey border is comparable to Nazi atrocities. 

      “There is no difference between what the Nazis did and those images from the Greek border,” Erdogan said.

      “Until all Turkey’s expectations, including free movement … updating of the customs union and financial assistance, are tangibly met, we will continue the practice on our borders,” he told his AKP parliamentary group. 

      Turkish authorities over the last month have been facilitating refugee and migrant flows towards the border with Greece as Erdogan has made good on his promise to ‘open the gates.’ Erdogan views this move as a means to destabilize European governments and their economies in hopes Brussels would submit to his demands, including, more recently, greater assistance with the Syrian conflict.

      Ankara has openly said its strategy is to push migrants from Syria to the European border and make sure they do not return. Turkey deployed 1,000 special operations police officers along the 124 mile stretch of the border to make sure migrants stay in Greece. 

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      A video earlier this week showed Turkish special operations police using an armored vehicle with a rope to pull down a border fence, in an attempt to flood Greece with migrants. The outcome, however, was unsuccessful but outlined Ankara’s dangerous attempt to unleash migrant hell on Europe. 

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

      Greece has shut its border with Turkey to avoid a migrant rush at the port of entries. Parts of its border with Turkey have been militarized; in anticipation, a crisis could soon develop as tens of thousands of people are awaiting entry. 

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      Turkish Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu was quoted last weekend as saying the next wave of migrants to flood Europe could reach one million, which would lead to a collapse of European governments and economies.

      Turkey’s Communications Directorate Fahrettin Altun criticized Greek authorities last week over the “ill-treatment of refugees.”

      Erdogan said Greek border guards have “opened fire on innocent people, exposing them to all kinds of inhumane treatment … [It] is barbarism in the full sense of the word.” 

      He added that “with the warming of the weather in the spring, the influx of irregular migrants heading to Europe will not be limited to Greece but spread all over the Mediterranean.” 

      Turkey has approximately 4 million refugees within its borders, many of which are from Syria, as even more are expected to flood into the country as the situation in Idlib, Syria, continues to deteriorate. 

      As warmer weather approaches, tens of thousands of migrants and refugees are lining up along the Greece–Turkey border, with hundreds of thousands of others shortly behind them, is only a matter of time before a breach is seen, as increased migrant flows into Europe could be imminent. 

      And to make matters worse, this all comes at a time when coronavirus is spreading like wildfire across the European continent. A migrant crisis and a pandemic could be what destroys Europe. 


      Tyler Durden

      Fri, 03/13/2020 – 02:45

    • The MH17 Show Trial Isn't About Justice Or Closure, But Information Warfare
      The MH17 Show Trial Isn’t About Justice Or Closure, But Information Warfare

      Authored by Andrew Korybko via Off-Guardian.org,

      The MH17 tragedy is back in the news after the start of this case’s show trial in the Netherlands, which isn’t about bringing the alleged perpetrators to justice or helping the victims’ families find closure, but waging information warfare against Russia in an attempt to “conclusively” pin the blame for this crime on its supposed proxies in Eastern Ukraine so as to ruin President Putin’s international reputation once and for all.

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      The world is once again talking about the MH17 tragedy after the start of this case’s show trial in the Netherlands, where four of the alleged perpetrators are being accused of murder. It’s unlikely that they’ll appear before the court, so the entire process is more about show than substance.

      In case the reader doesn’t remember exactly what happened on that fateful summer day on 17 July, 2014, the author recommends that they review his most recent analysis on the issue from earlier this year titled “Latest MH17 Documentary By SBU Whistleblower Shares Some Shocking Truths”, which covers what he believes to be the most convincing version of events that transpired immediately before, during, and after the passenger jet was shot down over Eastern Ukraine.

      In short, the conventional narrative that the Russian-aligned rebels there were responsible is debunked as a convenient cover-up for masking Kiev’s culpability, which in turn also makes that government’s Western backers — and not Russia — indirectly responsible. It’s therefore understandable that a lot of powerful forces are invested in making their manufactured version of the “truth” the “official” one, hence the show trial, which is nothing more than an attempt to “conclusively” pin the blame for this crime on Russia and its supposed proxies in Eastern Ukraine.

      Before going any further, it needs to be said that victims’ families have every right to be upset about what happened, and that everyone should respect their right to draw their own conclusions about what took place even if one doesn’t ultimately agree with them. The author doesn’t believe that Russia or the Eastern Ukrainian rebels were responsible, but acknowledges that some of the victims’ families think differently, especially after some of them staged a silent protest outside of the Russian Embassy in The Hague over the weekend.

      Nobody should criticize the victims’ families and thus make this all the more harder for them to deal with, but there’s also nothing wrong with talking about how their reaction to this tragedy is being exploited by those who are relying upon it to convince others that their interpretation of events is the only correct one.

      Politicizing the suffering of innocent people is wrong no matter who does it or why, which is why it’s morally reprehensible that others are taking advantage of them under the guise of “giving them a voice” in order to push their narrative onto the broader public. The ongoing trial isn’t about bringing the alleged perpetrators to justice or helping the victim’s families find closure, but waging information warfare against Russia, the purpose of which is to ruin its international reputation and that of its leader once and for all.

      President Putin is generally despised by the West but loved by the non-West because of his domestic and foreign policy successes over the past 20 years, which greatly contributed to bringing the emerging Multipolar World Order about. Even his detractors recognize that he’s an epochal figure whose legacy will certainly be studied for generations to come by people all across the world, they just regard Russia’s return to international prominence as being detrimental to their countries’ zero-sum interests.

      Nevertheless, they also wisely understand that soft power is more important than ever before in today’s interconnected, globalized world, especially after the information-communication technology revolution of the early 2000s, so they have a driving motivation to defame the Russian leader any chance they get.

      Regrettably, the MH17 tragedy is cynically seen as the “perfect opportunity” to ruin his legacy by forever associating him with what happened even though he played no role in those events whatsoever, nor did his countrymen. All that’s important to the “perception managers” who manufactured this weaponized narrative is that the lingering suspicion of President Putin’s possible involvement “credibly” exists, which explains the infowar importance of the ongoing show trial for supposedly “confirming” that.

      Back to the show trial itself, it’s predictable that the accused will probably be found “guilty” for the aforementioned political reasons of pinning the blame for that tragedy entirely on Russia and the Eastern Ukrainian rebels so as to deflect from the “inconvenient” facts that have since come to light implicating Kiev and its Western backers, which was explained in the author’s analysis that he cited in the opening paragraph of this article.

      The overall soft power impact of this seemingly inevitable conclusion will likely be minimal, however, seeing as how most people have already made up their minds about who was really responsible. Those who are convinced that Russia played a role will feel “vindicated” by the anticipated verdict, while those who have remained skeptical this entire time could use the newfound attention to this case to share the “inconvenient” evidence that was just touched upon with others.

      The takeaway from all this “legal” drama is that tragedies will almost always be politicized for information warfare purposes, especially if the case can remotely be made that Russia or any of the West’s other geopolitical rivals might have had even an indirect role in whatever it is that transpired, so these countries should brace themselves to expect more such show trials in the future and take steps to ensure that their side of the story is heard by as many people as possible.


      Tyler Durden

      Fri, 03/13/2020 – 02:00

    • When Will Authorities 'Lockdown' America (& How Long Will Quarentine Last)? Here's What The Patterns Show Us
      When Will Authorities ‘Lockdown’ America (& How Long Will Quarentine Last)? Here’s What The Patterns Show Us

      Authored by Daisy Luther via The Organic Prepper blog,

      Yesterday the World Health Organization officially declared Covid-19 a pandemic (like we didn’t already know this.) As well, President Trump addressed the nation, closing American borders to all flights from Europe and announcing some ways he intends to help the people of the United States financially.

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      In unofficial terms, this is sh#t getting real.

      Things are going to get worse – possibly much worse – before they get better. Illness completely aside, this will cause financial problems that many folks will feel for years after the pandemic is over.

      The biggest question people are asking now is, “When?”

      When will the US begin to see measures being taken to lockdown areas or put people into quarantine? What would that lockdown look like? How long will quarantines last?

      We can look at how this has gone in other countries to get a general idea of the pattern. Of course, we’re Americans and we do things differently. Our geography is quite different as is our population density. So this isn’t an exact science. We’re looking at patterns to predict (not in a crystal ball kind of way but an analysis kind of way) what could happen here.

      Here’s how things have gone in Italy and China.

      We can still learn a lot from observing the patterns of the breakdowns there.

      The United States is probably closer culturally to Italy and other European countries than we are to China. For example, Italy is far more concerned about human rights than China. However, geographically, we’re a lot more similar to China than we are to Italy. China has 9.3 million square kilometers and the United States has 9.1 million square kilometers. Meanwhile, Italy is 301,340 square kilometers.

      Both of these things play a role in the spread of the virus and containment efforts.

      What about China? Well, I don’t trust the numbers and information coming out of China to include them in this model by very much, but note that the situation of which we’re aware has been going on for about 8 weeks. The first cases of a mystery illness were heard of when Dr. Li Wenliang, who later died of the coronavirus, blew the whistle on China on December 30, 2019.

      To our knowledge, the quarantines began in Wuhan on January 22. So from the first patients to the initial lockdowns was 23 days. From the date the first noted illness became public to now has been 73 days. From the date of the first quarantines in Wuhan until now has been 51 days. Although the quarantine has been loosened, there are still serious restrictions on movement in China. The country may or may not be getting back to normal, depending on who you believe. If they are not getting back to normal, then this 7-week window is inaccurate.

      Back to Europe. Italy, specifically.

      On about the 20th of February, three cases of Covid-19 were confirmed in Northern Italy. Officials acted quickly to lock the area down but unfortunately, their quick actions weren’t enough. What began as a lockdown of a few villages in the Lombardy region in northern Italy on the 21st spread to a nationwide lockdown on March 9th.

      From the first patients to local lockdowns was one day. From the first patients to the entire country being quarantined was 22 days. In just 22 days, the virus had spread to such a degree that an entire country has suspended mortgage payments, stopped all non-essential movement, and ceased business. Their medical system is so overwhelmed that they are forced to choose who to save and many people over 65 are not even assessed as the hospitals reserve their resources and space for those who have a higher chance of survival.

      Less than a month ago, everything was normal in Italy. Tourists were making wishes at Trevi Fountain, people were enjoying sunny days having coffee with friends on a cafe patio, and businesses were thriving.

      As of yesterday, Italy had 12,462 cases of Covid-19 and the death toll leapt from 196 to 827. In a day. Everything has been ordered closed except food stores and pharmacies.

      This is how fast things can go.

      And Italy is currently on day 25 since the first 3 cases were diagnosed. If it took China at least 50 days of quarantine, then Italy is potentially halfway through the worst of this outbreak.

      Countries across Europe are slamming their borders shut in an effort to contain the virus. Whether they’ve acted soon enough remains to be seen.

      Where is the United States in all this?

      The first case of Covid-19 was diagnosed in the United States on January 22nd in Snohomish County, Washington. Incidentally, that was the same day the city of Wuhan went into lockdown.

      We have already had some small regional lockdowns and people in quarantine after traveling, but the quarantining of large groups of people has not yet occurred in the US. YET. We are on day 50 since the initial case was diagnosed in the United States. However, the first case of community spread was on February 26, and this may be a more important marker than the first case in a country the size of ours. “Community spread” means the illness was not contracted through traceable means, like a family member with the virus or travel history to places where the illness was running rampant. So if we’re counting from the first day of community spread, the US is on day 15.

      If massive lockdowns are occurring on about day 22-23 in other countries, that means we may have 7-8 days before we see major lockdowns and quarantines here. That would put us at March 19th or 20th. We may see some early lockdowns of cities or regions where the virus is rapidly spreading like Seattle and New York City. The lockdowns in other countries expanded in about a week to encompass greater geographic areas and larger numbers of people. This would put us at approximately March 26-27th.

      Now keep in mind, this is not engraved in stone. I don’t trust our numbers any more than I trusted China’s because the testing protocols have been nothing short of disastrous. First, faulty tests were sent out to health departments across the country and then the criteria for being tested was so narrow that many cases were likely overlooked. It took one person who caught the virus through community spread 10 days to be tested because she didn’t fit the criteria.

      The US might still manage to get a handle on this outbreak and contain it. A successful treatment regimen could be discovered. But if you’re looking for a general idea of when we may see lockdowns and quarantines, this pattern seems to be repeating itself and possibly speeding up.

      This chart shows how far behind Italy other countries are in the grand scheme of this outbreak. Based on this chart we are 11.5 days behind Italy, who instituted their country-wide quarantine three days ago. If this chart is correct, we’d be looking at massive quarantines on approximately the 20th as opposed to the more gradual schedule used by China.

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      Graph by Professor Mark Handley, at University College London (Image: Twitter)

      How long are quarantines lasting?

      If the information coming out of China is accurate, their period of extensive lockdown has lasted 7-8 weeks. Italy is right at the midpoint of that, at 3.5 weeks and the situation appears to be nowhere near under control.

      Based on this, I would expect a quarantine or lockdown in the US to last for up to 2-3 months. There are lots of variables, of course, but this would be a good general guide for getting supplies.

      • This article can help you figure out what you need for a period of quarantine
      • This book (which was banned by Amazon) is an even more thorough guide
      • To get a free quarantine checklist, sign up here for my newsletter.
      • If supplies are short where you live, this article can help you figure out some alternatives.

      I have to stress that whether you are personally concerned about getting the coronavirus or not, a mandatory quarantine will still affect you and you’ll want to be prepared. Otherwise, those folks you made fun of for buying toilet paper will be laughing at you for using the pages of a phonebook to wipe.

      So what’s going to happen?

      It’s impossible to predict exactly how the coronavirus is going to affect the United States. Americans are far more independence-minded that folks in China and much less likely to cooperate with draconian containment measures. At the same time, healthcare here is outrageously expensive for those of us who are uninsured, which up until this point may have caused many people to skip medical treatment or diagnosis, potentially spreading the virus faster.

      However, as of today, March 12, a number of universities across the country are shutting down classes until April. Workplaces are taking more thorough sanitation measures. Large gatherings, conferences, and conventions are being canceled. The NBA has canceled the rest of the season, the MLB has canceled spring training, and NCAA tournaments have also been canceled. (source) Last night, President Trump announced the suspension of air traffic from the EU much to the outrage of Europe, and today he said that suspension of domestic travel is also a possibility. (source)

      We know there is community spread in New York, Washington state, and now potentially Houston, Texas. Containment efforts thus far have failed.

      While we aren’t in lockdown yet, anyone who is paying attention can see that we’re certainly headed in that direction.

      There are some things that could change this. If we begin having a lot more positive cases in clusters, it could accelerate the timeline. On the other hand, if the growth in the number of cases slows down, it would show that containment efforts are working and it might never get as far as government-mandated quarantines.

      Either way, if you aren’t prepared, I would strongly recommend you put some plans in place.

      It’s time to make some decisions.

      While again, I must stress, we don’t know for sure what will happen, it’s time to make some decisions just in case.

      • Where do you want to be during a quarantine or lockdown?
      • When will you stop going to work or sending the kids to school?
      • Do you have enough supplies to see you through 7-8 weeks or longer?

      Use this guide to get prepared for the possibility of a Covid-19 lockdown.

      You’re the only person who can answer these questions for yourself and your family. But you should probably answer them soon, or the decisions will most likely be made for you.


      Tyler Durden

      Fri, 03/13/2020 – 00:05

    • Seattle Running Dangerously Low On Protective Gear Amid Largest Outbreak In Country
      Seattle Running Dangerously Low On Protective Gear Amid Largest Outbreak In Country

      Seattle is running out of protective gear for first responders and medical facilities as COVID-19 continues to spread in the hardest-hit region in the country, and they are days to week away from running out if they don’t receive new supplies from a national stockpile.

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      Mayor Jenny Durkan (D) told The Hill  that according to current estimates, there are over 1,100 people in the greater Seattle area who are infected with the coronavirus. Of note, there have been 397 confirmed cases in Washington State, of which 29 have died and one person has recovered.

      Those who become sick enough to need hospitalization are already stretching health systems as city, county and state officials scramble to build capacity. Many people who become ill call 911, putting a premium on personal protective gear that police and fire fighters must don and doff each time they come into contact with someone who might be symptomatic.
       
      “There’s some critical things that we will need very quickly. We have made it clear on what those are. Testing still remains the number one issue. Capacity has increased, but it has not increased to meet the demand or the need,” Durkan told The Hill. “The national stockpile of personal protective equipment, face masks, face shields, gloves — we will run out if we don’t get replenishments soon.” -The Hill

      Despite the dire situation with supplies, Dugan showered praise on state and federal officials, including Vice President Mike Pence following his visit to the Seattle area last week. Early on in the outbreak, she said Pence successfully helped her office resolve a problem early in the outbreak.

      That said, testing constraints have proven frustrating.

      “The thing that has hamstrung us the most and still we are continuing to catch up because of the lack of testing,” said Durkan. “It’s been very difficult to know how much mitigation and government regulation there has to be because we didn’t know what the scope of the problem was.”

      “No one has made any secret that at the beginning of this there were some real stumbles at the CDC. But the line-to-line communication between the city and CDC is working really well,” she added.

      Seattle officials began preparing for coronavirus in January following its outbreak in Wuhan, China – holding cabinet-level exercises to plan for the city’s response. Around that time, a man in his 30s from Snohmish County north of Seattle boarded a flight from Wuhan back home – the first known American case of the virus.

      Genetic testing from the man and other similar cases revealed that COVID-19 had been circulating undetected for weeks, according to the report.

      “It came upon us much more quickly than anyone anticipated,” said Durkan.

      Durkan stood alongside Gov. Jay Inslee (D) on Wednesday as Inslee announced restrictions on all gatherings of more than 250 people in King, Pierce and Snohomish counties, the three Washington State counties hit hardest by the virus. Later on Wednesday, Seattle’s public school district said it would close schools for two weeks. The system was still figuring out details for how some of its 52,000 students would be cared for, especially those who depend on it for free and reduced price lunches.
       
      The number of cases in Washington State have doubled every six or seven days for the past several weeks, Durkan said. In a worst-case scenario, the Seattle area could be overrun by 70,000 cases in six weeks.
       
      “When you hear those numbers and look at those models, it makes it pretty easy to make the decision to take some pretty significant steps,” she said. -The Hill

      According to the report, the virus has already hit Seattle’s economy hard – which will ‘likely fall disproportionately on low-income workers and small businesses that depend on foot traffic.” 

      Large corporations and institutions such as Amazon, Microsoft and the University of Washington have all ordered workers to work from home – leaving coffee shops, barber shops, restaurants and other similar businesses dying on the vine.

      Durkan’s administration plans to help businesses impacted by the virus by delaying business and operating taxes and increasing funding to a small business stabilization fund.

      “Our small businesses, our employees, minimum-wage workers, low wage workers, gig economy workers, those are the most vulnerable part” of the city’s economy, said Durkan. “Small businesses provide about 200,000 jobs in Seattle. The biggest part of our economic sector in terms of jobs. That’s like four Amazons.”


      Tyler Durden

      Thu, 03/12/2020 – 23:45

    • If You're Close To The Scene Of A Crime, Police Can Demand Google Hand Over Your Data
      If You’re Close To The Scene Of A Crime, Police Can Demand Google Hand Over Your Data

      Authored by Aaron Kesel via TheMindUnleashed.com,

      The Gainesville Police Department suspected an innocent man was involved in a burglary so naturally they requested that Google give them all of his location data.

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      Google’s legal investigations support team wrote to Zachary McCoy telling him that local police were demanding information related to his Google account. Google replied and said it would release the data unless McCoy went to court and tried to block the request, NBC reported.

      The man then searched his case number on the Gainesville Police Department website where he found a one-page report on the burglary of an elderly woman’s home ten months earlier on March 29, 2009. Unfortunately for McCoy, the crime occurred less than a mile from the home that he shared with his two roommates.

      Caleb Kenyon, McCoy’s lawyer, said he was subject of a “geofence warrant.” A geofence warrant is essentially a virtual dragnet over crime scenes where police request to sweep up Google location data drawn from users’ GPS, Bluetooth, Wi-Fi, and cellular connections from everyone who is near a crime scene.

      From this blanket of surveillance law enforcement then try to figure out which phones may be tied to suspects or possible witnesses. According to journalist Tony Webster, “Law enforcement officials say it’s a promising new technique.”

      “A reverse location search warrant differs from a traditional search warrant in that it doesn’t identify a suspect and establish probable cause to ask for evidence of a suspect’s crimes. Instead, it asks for information about everyone in an area at a certain time, working backwards to identify a suspect.”

      McCoy used an exercise-tracking app, RunKeeper, to record his rides. The app relied on his phone’s location services, that were then fed to Google. He looked up his route on the day of the burglary and saw that he had passed the victim’s house three times within an hour, part of his frequent loops through his neighborhood.

      “It was a nightmare scenario,” McCoy recalled.

      “I was using an app to see how many miles I rode my bike and now it was putting me at the scene of the crime. And I was the lead suspect.”

      McCoy ended up fighting back and winning, resulting in the police dropping their warrant request with the help of his lawyer.

      But this isn’t the first time a blanket surveillance warrant has been used, last year in New York law enforcement used a “geofence warrant” against the Proud Boys, a group of pro-Trump rightwing extremists after they allegedly beat up four leftist protesters, believed to be associated with Antifa, outside an Upper East Side event. The four protesters refused to cooperate with police, and authorities were unable to identify them.

      As part of their attempt to find their identities, prosecutors sent Google a warrant for phone records near the conflict. However, they ended up collecting multiple innocent people around the area under their dragnet as well, even though they had nothing to do with the crime. Exactly like what happened with McCoy.

      And in just one year, 22 Google reverse location search warrants were issued in the state of Minnesota alone.

      This type of warrant has privacy and civil liberties advocates concerned. They’re noting that the search has constitutional issues due to protections from unreasonable searches. However, police argue the information alone is not enough to justify charging someone with a crime. But in another case in Arizona, a man was mistakenly arrested and jailed for a murder he didn’t commit, which was largely based on Google data received from a geofence warrant.

      “Normally we think of the judiciary as being the overseer, but as the technology has gotten more complex, courts have had a harder and harder time playing that role,” said Jennifer Granick, surveillance and cybersecurity counsel at the American Civil Liberties Union about another case of using geofence surveillance. “We’re depending on companies to be the intermediary between people and the government.”


      Tyler Durden

      Thu, 03/12/2020 – 23:25

    • Caterpillar Machine Sales Plunge Most In Three Years As Pandemic Paralyzes Heavy Industries
      Caterpillar Machine Sales Plunge Most In Three Years As Pandemic Paralyzes Heavy Industries

      Just in case the world needed yet another confirmation the world’s manufacturing industries, primarily construction and mining, are grinding to a halt, it got one late on Thursday when Caterpillar reported that in February its global machine sales suffered their biggest drop since December 2016.

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      The report, which covers the first full month when the coronavirus pandemic paralyzed China’s economy and was rapidly spreading across the rest of the world “underlines how the coronavirus outbreak is putting a drag on the industries that Caterpillar supplies” according to Bloomberg. While the North American region posted another double digit drop, declining from -11% in January to -12% in February, it was Asia that was hit the hardest, tumbling from a modest, -2% drop in January to a whopping -17% in February, the biggest decline in four years.

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      As Bloomberg further notes, the downbeat mood in the heavy manufacturing industry permeated ConExpo, the largest construction convention in North America. In remarks at the Las Vegas gathering this week, which surprisingly has not been canceled, Caterpillar CEO Jim Umpleby said the coronavirus hasn’t yet caused major supply snags, and the company was focusing on executing the plan set in place when he first took over as CEO. In other words, the real fall in retail sales is yet to come, and may be why Umpleby didn’t offer much detail on how the worldwide move to stamp out the virus will change prospects for the business.

      “Our guidance was based on the best information that we had at the time, and if we have any changes to that we’ll do it when we put out our first-quarter results,” Umpleby told Bloomberg in an interview. Translation: expect CAT to pull its entire 2020 guidance in the coming days.

      Fears about the virus’s impact on global growth have helped send shares of the economic bellwether down 38% this year, off to its worst start since 2009.

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      But the worst is yet to come, because the coronavirus is not even the company’s biggest threat: the sudden Saudi oil price war is. CAT reported that oil and gas retail sales fell just 3% (a sixth straight month of declines in the segment), however with the industry now frozen with virtually no new exploration for the foreseeable future, we expect this CAT vertical to plummet to zero next month. Trying to put some lipstick on the pig, CFO Andrew Bonfield said Wednesday that oil-market tumult from the past week will impact the oil and gas business, but said that it’s still too early to tell how strong that may be.


      Tyler Durden

      Thu, 03/12/2020 – 23:05

    • Even The Most Powerful Central Banks Cannot Save Us
      Even The Most Powerful Central Banks Cannot Save Us

      Authored by Ye Xie, macro commentator at Bloomberg

      Even the Most-Powerful Central Banks Cannot Save Us

      First, the European Central Bank tried and failed to calm the market. Then, the Fed brought out the bazooka and it turned out to be a dud.

      What the world’s two most-powerful central banks showed Thursday was that they are powerless in dealing with a bug. That’s bad news for global markets, and China is no exception.

      Literally, there was no place to hide. Gold sold off, along with stocks, credit and oil, for a second day.

      European stocks tumbled the most on record and U.S. investment-grade bond funds suffered unprecedented outflows.

      It happened even as the ECB boosted its QE and liquidity tools, while the Fed resumed its own asset purchase programs.

      What’s more worrying is that the stress is emerging in dollar funding markets as banks and investors scramble for the U.S. currency to hunker down. You can see the dollar hoarding in the widening cross-currency basis swap, and falling CNH forwards.

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      As a result, the dollar rallied and the offshore yuan tumbled the most since December.

      The Fed stepped in quickly Thursday with massive repo operations to alleviate the funding stress. Keep an eye on that to see if it succeeds in calming markets down. If not, the yuan could weaken along with others.

      China clearly is not in the eye of the storm. Yet its currency and equity markets are now down for the year. The problem is that the contagion of the virus is still growing exponentially globally.  The following chart shows how the number of confirmed coronavirus cases in the U.S. is following the same path as Italy.

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      Until other governments start to panic, the worst is yet to come.


      Tyler Durden

      Thu, 03/12/2020 – 22:45

    • Canada's First Lady Tests Positive For The Coronavirus: Live Updates
      Canada’s First Lady Tests Positive For The Coronavirus: Live Updates

      Summary:

      • Scott Gottlieb says US can still avoid “Italy-like” outcome
      • Cuomo closes Broadway, bans all events in NY with over 500 ppl, reduces venue max capacity by 50%
      • NCAA cancels ‘March Madness’
      • F1 Australia Grand Prix to be held without crowd
      • Trump Campaign tells employees to work from home through Monday
      • Maryland & Ohio cancel school
      • Dr. Fauci appears to endorse European travel ban
      • Spain, Italy ban short selling
      • Charles Barkley to self-quarantine
      • UK reports 2 more deaths
      • NYC declares state of emergency
      • Cali bans gatherings with more than 250 ppl
      • China sending a medical team and equipment to Italy
      • Arsenal Manager Mikel Arteta tests positive for Covid-19
      • Disney closes park in Anaheim
      • American Air confirms pilot tested positive for Covid-19
      • Italy closes Catholic churches
      • NBA player apologizes for making light of virus
      • Trudeau and wife to self-quarantine after wife reports flu-like symptoms
      • France death toll climbs to 61
      • Houston closes schools until end of the month
      • Spain death toll climbs to 86
      • Ohio bans gatherings with more than 100 ppl after confirming 5th case
      • Gabon, Ghana confirm first cases of the virus
      • PA. Gov. Tom Wolf shuts down much of Montgomery County
      • 2nd Utah Jazz player tests positive
      • Slovakia closes all borders, international airports
      • NJ cutting off nightclub liquor sales after 10pm
      • Deaths in Italy above 1,000
      • NHL “pauses” play
      • MLB will delay start to 2020 season by 2 weeks
      • Chelsea Football Club player Callum Hudson-Odoi tests positive
      • Dr. Fauci says test shortage is major government ‘failing’
      • Rick Scott 2nd Senator to self-quarantine over virus
      • Senate cancels recess, will stay open next week
      • Reporter claims Gobert was careless in the locker room
      • Premier league to hold emergency talks Friday as clubs push to suspend play
      • 2020 champions league tournament postponed until next year
      • US Major League soccer suspends play
      • Trump says we may need to extend travel ban
      • Reports claim once again that Merkel is ready to whip out the checkbook
      • Goldman asks workers in NY to work from home in ‘staggered shifts’
      • EU officials condemned Trump’s travel ban
      • Trump says ‘markets are going to be fine’
      • Spain has approved a €2.8 billion rescue package
      • Olympic torch lit in front of just 100 spectators
      • La Liga suspends season after Real Madrid player tests positive
      • 3 F1 racers quarantined
      • Blackstone advises portfolio companies to draw down revolving credit lines
      • NHL rumored to be planning a league play suspension as playoffs begin
      • Passenger on JetBlue flight from NY to FLA tests positive for virus
      • Spanish cabinet being tested for coronavirus
      • Scandinavia begins shuttering schools
      • Iran reaches out to 3 million Iranians who may have been infected
      • Market participants wary of dissipating bond market liquidity
      • Global deaths pass 4,600

      *  *  *

      Update (2230ET): A few hours ago, we reported that PM Justin Trudeau and his wife, Sophie Gregoire, had gone into self-quarantine after his wife had exhibited symptoms of the virus after visiting London recently.

      Well, the test results are in. And Gregoire, the first lady of Canada, is positive for Covid-19.

      She and the Prime Minister will be self-isolating for 14 days.

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

      As we wait for the Premier League’s emergency tomorrow, news has broke that Chelsea Football Club player Callum Hudson-Odoi has tested positive for the virus and will remain in self-isolation. Callum displayed symptoms on Monday morning, and hasn’t been to the team’s training ground since. The rest of the team and its coaching staff will now self-isolate.

      *  *  *

      Update (2020ET): The Trump Campaign has asked workers to work from home through Monday.

      In other news, Charles Barkley said he plans to self-quarantine after falling ill. He has been tested for the coronavirus, but is awaiting the results.

      *  *  *

      Update (2000ET): Like we mentioned earlier, Arsenal Manager Mikel Arteta has tested positive, and as sports leagues around the world suspend play, the Premier League is reportedly holding emergency crisis talks on Friday, according to the Independent. 

      Many of the clubs owners want play to be shut down and disagree with the decision to continue so far. Some are even pushing for the entire season to be voided.

      Also: In further bad news for the airline industry, American Air has confirmed that one of its pilots tested positive for the virus. And Disney has just announced a decision to close theme parks in Florida and Paris – rounding out most of its biggest parks around the world. They closed Disney Land in California earlier today.

      *  *  *

      Update (1930ET): Seattle became the first major US city to shutter its school system last night, and just a few hours ago, Maryland and Ohio announced state-wide shutdowns of their own.

      Now, the Houston Independent School District, one of the largest in the US with more than 200,000 students, closes all schools until March 30 due to the outbreak.

      At least 17 cases of the virus have been diagnosed in the Houston area, most of them directly related to a group who recently traveled to Egypt.

      Across the US, the coronavirus panic is intensifying, as people continue to hoard supplies, even nonessentials like toilet paper, in a blind panic.

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

      Two new African countries reported their first cases of the virus on Thursday, including Gabon and Ghana.

      *  *  *

      Update (1905ET): Spain reports 869 new cases of coronavirus, and 31 new deaths, bringing the national total to 3,146 cases and 86 deaths.

      *  *  *

      Update (1845ET): Chatter form earlier today claiming that Dr. Fauci personally signed off on President Trump’s travel ban has been confirmed.

      • FAUCI SAYS EUROPE TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS RIGHT PUBLIC HEALTH CALL

      The celebrated epidemiologist said during a recent TV appearance that, if Trump hadn’t restricted travel from China, there would have been “many more travel-related cases”.

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      On the Continent, regulators in Italy and Spain have banned short-selling amid a brutal global selloff.

      Walking out of the Capitol building after his hearing, Dr. Fauci stopped to take a few questions from reporters, and clarified that enough tests are now available that any patient whose doctor believes a test is necessary can get one.

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

      We mentioned earlier that three Formula-1 racers have tested positive for the virus in Australia. Well, the Australian Grand Prix, the organizers of which were criticized for refusing to taking proper steps to protect spectators and drivers from the virus, will be held without a live crowd.

      One more thing: apparently ‘fake virus news’ is becoming a problem in NYC. What’s wrong? Too many gullible hipsters can’t figure out for themselves whether a tweet from a random, unverified account is a hoax?

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

      Finally, in Europe, Arsenal Manager Mikel Arteta has tested positive for Covid-19, the first Premier League player or coach to test positive.

      *  *  *

      Update (1725ET): Maryland and Ohio have cancelled schools across each state, with Maryland shuttering schools until March 27 (two weeks) and Ohio shuttering them for three weeks.

      In addition, Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan directed the Maryland Emergency Management to the highest activation level and issued an executive order that moves the National Guard to a higher state of readiness. The state has only confirmed 12 cases of the virus.

      Here’s the release from the Maryland Superintendent of schools:

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

      And the rest of Hogan’s press conference, where he made the announcement.

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

      Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine said the decision to close schools and have an “extended spring break” came after consulting with experts, the closure will be “reviewed” at the end of the period.

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

      In Italy, catholic churches are set to completely close.

      Rudy Gobert, the first Utah Jazz player to be diagnosed with the virus, took to Instagram on Thursday to thank people for their support and also to apologize for his actions seen in a now-viral video of him earlier this week deliberately touching microphones and recorder during a press conference, in an act of mockery of the viral panic.

      “The first and most important thing is I would like to publicly apologize to the people that I may have endangered. At the time, I had no idea I was even infected. I was careless and make no excuse. I hope my story serves as a warning and causes everyone to take this seriously. I will do whatever I can to support using my experience as way to educate others and prevent the spread of this virus,” he said.

      *  *  *

      Update (1630ET): The NCAA just delivered a huge blow to college sports fans by confirming that it will cancel men’s and women’s “March Madness” tournaments, after earlier confirming that any games associated with the tournament would be played in front of empty crowds.

      Earlier, all of the biggest conferences in the country cancelled their men’s championship tournaments.

      Here’s more from CNBC:

      The NCAA has canceled its March Madness basketball tournaments – and “all remaining winter and spring” championships – as coronavirus fears upend the sports world.

      “This decision is based on the evolving COVID-19 public health threat, our ability to ensure the events do not contribute to spread of the pandemic, and the impracticality of hosting such events at any time during this academic year given ongoing decisions by other entities,” the organization said in a statement.

      Earlier Thursday, major conferences canceled their championship tournaments and sports organizations across the world rolled out fan restrictions and suspensions of play in light of the COVID-19 pandemic.

      The Southeastern Conference, Big Ten Conference, Pac-12 Conference, Big East, Big-12 Conference and Atlantic Coast Conference all canceled their men’s championship tournaments ahead of the NCAA’s announcement. At least two high-profile teams also individually announced their withdrawals from the tournament.

      The decision comes after nearly every major sports league in the country that’s currently active suspended play, and the MLB delayed the start of its season.

      Disney also just announced plans to close Disneyland Park and Disney California adventure in Anaheim.

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

      *  *  *

      Update (1615ET): With all of Wall Street in a panic, and officials at JFK scrambling after a passenger aboard a JetBlue flight to Fla. was confirmed positive after taking off, NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio has decided to declare a state of emergency, citing the “intense” increase in the number of confirmed cases in the city, and that the situation is evolving “hourly”.

      “The last 24 hours have been very sobering,” he said. The declaration will allow the city to access emergency funds. However, the mayor insisted this isn’t a run-up to cancelling school. He added that “we want our schools to remain open, we intend for our schools to remain open.” Though after-school sports, PTA meetings, and other activities will be cancelled for the time being.

      As the situation worsens, de Blasio said the city government recognizes the struggles of all New Yorkers during this difficult time.

      “We’re very concerned about people’s loss of livelihood…We’re worried about folks having trouble paying the rent,” de Blasio said.

      The decision comes five days after Gov. Cuomo declared a state-wide emergency.

      Watch the rest of his press conference below:

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      New York is presently battling it out with Washington State for mantle of worst outbreak in the US. They represent the worst outbreaks on their respective coasts right now.

      In an effort to combat ‘fake news’ – always a problem during city-wide emergencies, as we first learned during Hurricane Sandy, the city’s first major natural disaster of the Twitter era – the NYPD tweeted that reports it was planning to shut down the subway were “false”.

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

      So far, 96 cases have been confirmed in NYC.

      *  *  *

      Update (1545ET): California is following in New York’s footsteps and cracking down on large “non-essential” gatherings. According to a statement, gatherings with 250+ people must be postponed until the end of March, at the earliest. 

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

      LA County took things a step further by banning gatherings of 50+ in publicly-owned buildings.

      Watch the governor’s address below:

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

      In other news, China is sending a medical team and supplies to Italy to help them fight the virus, in Beijing’s latest gesture of condescension toward the West.

      *  *  *

      Update (1540ET): Macron is still speaking. Watch the rest of his statement below:

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      *  *  *

      Update (1510ET): As France and Germany scramble to suppress their own national outbreaks while casting a wary eye toward Italy – yet they stubbornly refuse to close borders like other European countries have – French President Emmanuel Macron has just announced that he plans to close schools and universities in the country beginning on Monday.

      France also reported 595 new cases of coronavirus, and 13 new deaths, raising its total to 2,876 cases and 61 dead.

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      Italian officials said earlier allowed Italian citizens to defer mortgage payments due to the outbreak. Macron told citizens that the government would delay a March tax deadline to put more money in the hands of citizens.

      Spain has reported 782 new cases of coronavirus and 31 new deaths so far today, raising the country’s total to 3,059 cases and 86 dead.

      Slovakia, which was one of the last countries in Europe to confirm a case of the virus, announced that it’s planning to close all of its borders to non-residents and close all international airports as part of a drastic ban on international travelers that puts the US travel ban to shame. The country’s decision is a direct blow to the EU’s “open borders” agenda, one Twitter wit noted.

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

      The decision to close borders comes just hours after Slovakia, The Czech Republic and Hungary declared state of emergencies over the outbreaks, despite having relatively few cases. Slovakia only has 5 confirmed cases, equivalent to the number of confirmed cases in the US state of Ohio.

      Speaking of Ohio, the state just became the newest US state to ban large gatherings. A few minutes ago, Ohio Governor Mike DeWine said the state is banning gatherings of 100 or more people, with some exceptions, after confirming a fifth case of Covid-19, a 55-year-old man in Trumbull County.

      Finally, MLB said it would delay Opening Day by at least 2 weeks, meaning it will be more than a month from now before we see any MLB pro baseball played in the US.

      Meanwhile…in Congress…

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

      *  *  *

      Update (1500ET):  NBC News has just confirmed that MLB plans to announce plans to delay the start of the 2020 season and suspend Spring Training, which we mentioned below.

      *  *  *

      Update (1440ET): Earlier local media reports claimed that the total presumptive positive cases in PA. has climbed to 21, including a doctor at a children’s hospital in Philadelphia. Gov. Tom Wolf announced massive closings in Montgomery County, a suburban county near Philly, after the number of cases in that county climbed to 13, more than half of the state’s total, according to CBS 3 Philly.

      A doctor at Saint Christopher’s Hospital for Children has tested positive at a local lab, and his sample is now being sent to the CDC, according to Drexel University officials. The doctor is an independent physician with admitting privileges at St. Christophers. He was last at the hospital on Feb. 26.

      In other news, the CDC announced Thursday that it has tested 11,000 “specimens”, which doesn’t mean 11,000 people, as most people are tested at least twice. But CNBC also noted that “drive thru testing” in at least one state. In Minnesota, the Mayo Clinic in Rochester has launched “drive thru” testing allowing patients to drop off samples after a phone conversation with a doctor. Patients must be directed by a doctor before their sample will be accepted and tested.

      Read part of the clinic’s statement below:

      Mayo Clinic is conducting a drive-through process in Rochester to collect COVID-19 specimens for testing. Transmission of the coronavirus is increasing nationwide, and other institutions have successfully used the drive-through approach.

      Patients who meet criteria for testing are directed to the location. Mayo Clinic staff collect the specimens, using appropriate precautions, and send them to the Minnesota Department of Health for analysis. This process reduces the need for other critically constrained resources.

      Patients are required to have a phone screening first to determine if testing is appropriate. If approved, patients then will be directed to the drive-through location. There is no additional charge for the drive-through service.

      We’ve also found the clip from today’s Congressional testimony where Dr. Fauci delivered a withering criticism of the US’s virus response.

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

      Meanwhile, according to the Washington Post, as of 2:50pmET, the US had 1,281 cases confirmed, and 36 deaths:

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      *  *  *

      Update (1420ET): Gov. Cuomo announced during his daily coronavirus outbreak press update that he would close down NYC’s Broadway district at 5 pm Thursday night for theaters with a capacity of more than 500, and shutting down all events – concerts, conferences etc. – with 500 or more people in the city beginning Friday night. 

      Restrictions on smaller gatherings, the legal capacity on all buildings will be reduced by 50%.

      Watch the rest of his press conference from Albany below:

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      *  *  *

      Update (1352ET): Italy’s civil protection agency has reported yet another unsettling jump in newly confirmed cases and deaths, bringing the death toll within the country above 1,000 deaths, becoming the first country outside China to (officially) top that threshold (we suspect Iran has secretly recorded at least as many).

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      The death total in Italy from the coronavirus climbed to 1,016 from 827, while the number of confirmed cases in Italy climbed to 15,113 from 12,462, marking the fourth straight day with more than 100 deaths and more than 1,000 new cases confirmed.

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      With the new numbers, the country’s mortality rate has climbed to 6.7%.

      *  *  *

      Update (1345ET): Rick Scott just became the second US Senator to self-quarantine after potentially being exposed to the virus.

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      Though Scott said he doesn’t believe he interacted with the individual (the press secretary we noted in an earlier post), he is taking precautions “out of an abundance of caution”.

      *  *  *

      Update (1345ET): Confirming reports from earlier, the NHL just announced that it’s planning to “pause” the 2019-2020 season.

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      *  *  *

      Update (1330ET): As far as we can tell, Jersey City is about to become the first in America to crack down on drinking and partying in the name of fighting the coronavirus.

      More from BBG:

      Jersey City is cutting “larger nightclub” liquor sales after 10 p.m. to reduce the potential of having crowds of people exposed to the new coronavirus, Mayor Stephen Fulop said.

      The state’s second most-populous city, a Wall Street business and residential haven across the Hudson River from Manhattan, had no coronavirus cases as of Thursday, Fulop said at a news conference. Still, he said he was being cautious: limiting City Hall visits to those with appointments, suspending parking-permit sales and renewals and canceling all city-sponsored or permitted events, he said.

      He also asked banquet halls and large restaurants “to be tracking attendance, best as they can” in case health officials must track down contacts with anyone who tests positive for coronavirus.

      The nightclub liquor restrictions will start this weekend, he said.

      This comes after the PM of Italy said last night that bars, restaurants would also be closed as part of the national shut down. But just imagine catching the coronavirus at a skeezy nightclub in Jersey City…oof.

      *  *  *

      Update (1320ET): Major League Baseball is reportedly planning to delay spring training and the start of the 2020 season, per unconfirmed reports. An announcement is expected shortly.

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      The news follows a flurry of tweets like this warning of senior citizens’ exposure.

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      Out of Washington, there are reports that McConnell will keep the Senate open next week and cancel its regular recess. 

      *  *  *

      Update (1320ET): Following in the footsteps of the NBA, MBS, NCAA and sports organizations around the world, the NHL is reportedly preparing to suspend play.

      According to the New York Post, NHL commissioner Gary Bettman reached out to clubs Thursday morning to tell them the regular season would be suspended due to the spread of the coronavirus, a source indicated to The Post. An inter-league call was scheduled for 1 pm to work out details. The news will likely be announced publicly in the coming hours.

      The league already cancelled practices on Thursday and told teams to start preparing for make-up games that could run as late as June.

      Per the NYP, since locker rooms are filled with sweaty equipment, every year teams experience team-wide outbreaks and sometimes more serious illnesses.

      *  *  *

      Update (1250ET): Following reports from earlier in the day claiming that JPM had asked its New York and New Jersey employees to work from home until the outbreak ends, Bloomberg is reporting that Goldman has asked its employees to work from home “in staggered shifts.”

      *  *  *

      Update (1216ET): Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his wife are planning to self-quarantine after the PM’s wife, Sophie Gregoire, recently returned from London, where she visited for a speaking engagement, developed a low fever and other symptoms of the virus last night, according to a statement from the PM’s office.

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      She immediately sought medical advice, and is being tested for the virus.

      Though doctors recommended that the prime minister could continue his daily activities while monitoring himself for symptoms, “out of an abundance of caution” (a phrase we’re hearing more and more lately) he has decided to self-quarantine as well.

      The PM will spend Friday and the rest of Thursday doing virtual meetings and briefings at home.

      *  *  *

      Update (1125ET): With testimony before the Committee on Oversight and Reform continuing on Thursday for a second day after Dr. Fauci and other officials were called away, the doctor appeared again on Thursday, and offered some deeply critical words about the administration’s ability to supply enough tests.

      Dr. Anthony Fauci described the response as “a failing” because of the tests.

      • NIH’S FAUCI SAYS CORONAVIRUS TESTING SYSTEM IS NOT “GEARED TO WHAT WE NEED RIGHT NOW” IN U.S., CALLS IT “A FAILING” -CONGRESSIONAL HEARING

      The hearing was abruptly called to recess, but readers can watch it live here when it returns:

      *  *  *

      Update (1115ET): As sports-betting operations and sports fans around the world wait to hear whether the NBA playoffs will be suspended or cancelled, it’s been reported that a second Utah Jazz player has tested positive for the virus.

      The new patient is star guard Donovan Mitchell, who joins teammate Rudy Gobert.

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      The two sick players, pictured together…

      A reporter claimed sources close to the team said Gobert had been ‘careless’ in the lockerroom, after demonstrating his disdain for the public panic around the virus.

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      This would suggest that the virus has been spreading among the teammates.

      At the White House, President Trump said he doesn’t support House Democrats’ plan for the emergency economic package, and accused them of stuffing it with “goodies.”

      He also said that the US may need to extend travel ban for longer, or “we could shorten it.”

      We neglected earlier, but in Australia, three Formula One team members have been placed into isolation amid concerns they may have contracted the coronavirus, stoking more criticism of the decision to go ahead with the Australian Grand Prix, the Guardian reports.

      *  *  *

      Update (1105ET): As Democrats and Republicans duke it out on Capitol Hill over the coronavirus emergency fiscal package, Spain has just approved a €2.8 billion package to support social services in its provinces as the country battles the outbreak. Meanwhile, President Trump is telling reporters that ‘markets are going to be fine’ amid the second bone-shaking, trade-halt-provoking selloff this week.

      Trump also said he will not use his powers under the Stafford Act to declare a national state of emergency, though he didn’t rule it out in the future.

      Italy has also proposed a rescue package of €25 billion, according to reports.

      And in the US, it appears the American professional soccer league is following La Liga and the champions league and suspending play, according to Sports illustrated.

      • MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER TO SUSPEND ALL PLAY IMMEDIATELY: SI

      *  *  *

      Update (1055ET): Weeks after declaring that nothing would stop Euro 2020 champions league tornament, it appears its organizers are ready to throw in the towel.

      According to media reports, the European soccer league is planning to postpone the 2020 tournament until next year because of the coronavirus.

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      Earlier, La Liga, the Spanish top-flight football club, announced it would follow the NBA by suspending its season. Now, football fans across Europe are about to be very disappointed.

      *  *  *

      Update (1045ET): UK public health officials have reported two more deaths Thursday morning after President Trump exempted the country from the travel ban last night, bringing the death toll to 8, according to the Department of Health and Social Care.

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      Meanwhile, UK coronavirus cases have reached 590, an increase of 134 in the last 24 hours.

      Different news organizations are reporting different death tolls for the UK. Sky News is saying 10, though only 8 have been confirmed by by the DHSC.

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      We also neglected to mention earlier that another lawmaker, Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas, has closed his Washington DC office because some of his staff were reportedly potentially exposed to the virus.

      *  *  *

      Update (1030ET): The ceremonial lighting of the Olympic torch was held in Olympia (not the one in Washington State) on Thursday and video has been posted on YouTube for anybody who wants to watch.

      We’re sharing because nobody except 100 “accredited” spectators were allowed to watch the ceremony. Typically, the event draws as many as 12,000 spectators.

      Following rumors they might ask that some of the events be delayed, the Japanese government has said that cancelling the Olympics is impossible, even as sports leagues suspend play.

      *  *  *

      Update (0906ET): Earlier, NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio said New Yorkers need to brace for changes like subway shutdowns amid ‘community spread’ of the virus in the city during an appearance on CNN.

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      Now, reports claim an NYC student has tested positive, and that school district officials are temporarily shutting down two schools. It’s the first confirmed case in the city’s schools. Gov. Cuomo said yesterday that the city and state had decided to keep schools open.  The city almost never closes schools, because thousands of students depend on free and subsidized lunches for food, and would have nowhere else to go.

      • NYC SCHOOLS GET FIRST CORONAVIRUS CASE, TWO BRONX SCHOOLS TO CLOSE – REPORT

      Over in Europe, officials in the Netherlands confirmed that the number of cases has climbed to 614 from 503 yesterday.

      CNBC viewers this morning probably noticed Jim Cramer’s rant about the federal government’s response.

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      *  *  *

      Update (0850ET): Former FDA Director Dr. Scott Gottlieb posted another thread of advice about the outbreak before appearing once again on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” Thursday morning.  In it, he said the outbreak would last for a few more months, and that the US has the tools to mitigate the impact of the virus on both public health and the economy.

      Gottlieb said it’s still possible for the US to avert an “Italy-like” outcome where deaths begin to spiral by improving testing capacity to quickly address the outbreak.

      He also recommended the creation of “surge capacity” in hospitals as an influx of Covid-19 patients hammers hospitals that are already busy due to the wintertime flu and infection season.

      One more thing: if you don’t want to contract the virus, remember this: “social separation works”.

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      According to this analysis, Trump’s latest travel ban is a step in the right direction. But much more needs to be done domestically. 

      *  *  *

      Update (0834ET): Here we go again with this.

      24 hours after Angela Merkel warned that up to 70% of Germans might eventually contract the coronavirus, we’re seeing yet another headline about German fiscal stimulus, though it didn’t do much to lift the market’s mood.

      • GERMANY READY TO DITCH BALANCED BUDGET TO COMBAT CORONAVIRUS

      Of course, this is Germany, and many remain skeptical about deficit spending (even though there probably isn’t a German alive who remembers the Weimar Republic hyperinflationary era).

      But liberals and Merkel have been pushing for some level of expanded spending to boost the economy since late last year. Now, the perfect excuse for more stimulus has fallen in their lap (along with a genuine threat to the economy).

      As Bloomberg points out, Merkel’s decision to support additional spending due to the “exceptional” circumstances created by the outbreak represents a “u-turn” for her party, which for years positioned itself as a guardian of fiscal discipline in Germany.

      Given the threat of an economic recession from the pandemic, Merkel and her economic team are now willing to accept deficit spending to help finance containment measures, according to people with direct knowledge of the government’s economic policy. The virus-triggered crisis is one of the “exceptional circumstances” under the constitutional debt brake that allows for additional borrowing, said the people, who requested not to be named because the discussions are not public. While Merkel’s government is ready to explore additional spending, no decisions have been made on specific measures or an amount. The government did not immediately respond to requests for comment. The change in stance amounts to a u-turn for Merkel’s Christian Democratic-led bloc which for years has upheld fiscal discipline as one of its mantras.

      Some lawmakers have already said they would oppose any decision to suspend debt limits.

      Also remember: During his speech last night, Trump blamed Europe for refusing to close its borders to fight the spread of the virus. His new rules will go into effect Friday at midnight.

      *  *  *

      Update (0822ET): Rumors are flying around (they were mentioned on CNBC earlier, and it looks like BBG just fired off a headline) claiming the NHL might join the NBA in suspending the season just as the playoffs are set to begin. The league is expected to hold a conference call at 11am ET Thursday morning.

      In New York, JP Morgan has finally joined a handful of its peers (including Barclays and Morgan Stanley) in telling its NY employees to work from home because of the virus.

      *  *  *

      Update (0720ET): A passenger on a JetBlue flight from JFK to Palm Peach has been stuck on a runway in Palm Beach for hours after a passenger tested positive for the coronavirus, WPTV reports.

      Flight 253 from JFk, which carried 114 passengers and crew, was stuck at Palm Beach International Airport for more than three horus after landing at around 9 pm last night.

      with 114 passengers and crew aboard, landed at Palm Beach International Airport shortly before 9 p.m. Wednesday but remained on the tarmac until just before 11, when the plane finally proceeded to the gate.

      “The person across the way from me was taken to the back of the plane. He was wearing masks and gloves. His wife was sitting in the same row as me and mentioned to others that he wasn’t feeling well. She said he had gotten a phone call with his test results right before we had taken off, implying that he had a positive test but not actually saying it,” said passenger Scott Rodman.

      State health officials briefed every passenger and crew member aboard the ship, according to an emailed statement to WPTV. Those who sat nearby the Covid-19 patient, who reportedly received a call with his test results just before takeoff, were advised to monitor for symptoms.

      “The person across the way from me was taken to the back of the plane. He was wearing masks and gloves. His wife was sitting in the same row as me and mentioned to others that he wasn’t feeling well. She said he had gotten a phone call with his test results right before we had taken off, implying that he had a positive test but not actually saying it,” said passenger Scott Rodman.

      Florida’s state health department has since completed its “assessment” of the situation.

      Following in the footsteps of the NBA, Spain’s “La Liga” – its top soccer league – has suspended play for at least two weeks. In addition, Real Madrid players have been quarantined after a member of the club’s basketball team tested positive for COVID-19. The soccer and basketball teams train at the same complex and share many of the same equipment, according to local media reports.

      Both teams, plus their staff, have gone into quarantine.

      *  *  *

      Following last night’s Oval Office unveiling of a 30-day travel ban affecting roughly two dozen European countries, though not the UK, which confirmed its 7th death from the outbreak. Notably, the ban will only affect the movement of people (and American citizens are of course exempt) but not trade in goods, as the White House hastily clarified when they saw the market’s initial reaction, and will exempt the UK.

      London was notably silent after the surprise announcement, but in Brussels, the bureaucrats running the EU were somewhat less than pleased. EU leaders slammed President Trump’s “unilateral” travel ban and warned the coronavirus pandemic is an international problem that demands coordinated action (like what Christine Lagarde demanded yesterday?). European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen European Council Leader Charles Michel issued a joint statement on Thursday that highlighted European alarm at the US move. “The coronavirus is a global crisis, not limited to any continent and it requires cooperation rather than unilateral action,” they said, per the FT.

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      Von der Leyen and Michel

      Meeanwhile, Spain’s entire cabinet is being tested for coronavirus, with the results due to be announced on Thursday afternoon, and countries in Scandinavia have begun shutting down schools less than a day after Sweden reported its first virus-related death.

      Notably, the ban leaves out all of Asia, stymieing liberals who were ready to pounce on another “racist” Trump travel ban. Though many are still bellyaching about Trump’s decision to leave out the UK, which is run by Trump’s ‘good friend’ Boris Johnson. But as Rencap’s Charlie Robertson pointed out, Trump’s decision to exempt the UK was based on epidemiological evidence.

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      Across the US, private schools appear to be closing under pressure from parents.

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      This comes after Seattle became the largest city in the US to close its schools over the virus. We’ve heard rumors that Utah is planning to close its public-college campuses.

      But the biggest blow to market confidence last night arrived courtesy of the NBA, which cancelled Wednesday’s matchup between the Utah Jazz and Oklahoma City Thunder, then announced that it would suspend the season for the time being after Rudy Gobert, Utah’s star center, tested positive for the virus, becoming the first American professional athlete to test positive for the virus.

      A few days ago, Gobert infamously made light of the hysteria by ‘touching’ all the microphones in the press room.

      In hindsight, it looks like this might have been a mistake.

      Around the same time, actors and husband-wife duo Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson revealed in an Instagram post that they had also tested positive. The response was pandemonium on social media.

      Moving on to Thursday morning, futures have been limit-down all night once again, just like we saw Sunday into Monday,

      The CDC recommended last night that companies in Silicon Valley and Seattle start implementing mandatory temperature checks for all employees, according to the LA Times.

      Bloomberg reported last night that Blackstone had recommended that its portfolio companies had drawn down on their revolving credit facilities, something that the FT’s Robert Smith pointed out would be an “instant capital hit” to banks.

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      Yesterday, Boeing shocked the market by announcing that it would immediately draw down on its $13.825 billion revolving credit facility to ward off any “liquidity issues,” something that we warned soon after would could represent the beginning of a liquidity crisis for banks, whose shares have already been badly beaten thanks to the Fed’s “emergency” 50bp rate cut and record-low Treasury yields. Now, with their clients in full-on panic mode, it’s hardly surprising that companies want to bulk up their balance sheets for the coming economic storm.

      The only problem, is that this is essentially the equivalent of a corporate bank run…

      …as companies aren’t so much worried about their own future, but the banks’ future, because why else would anyone want to hold cash in their wallet when they can keep it safe and sound in a bank…unless they were worried that it was no longer ‘safe’ to do so.

      Moving from one liquidity risk to another, during the opening of CNBC’s “Squawk Box” Thursday morning, Andrew Ross Sorkin declared that some of his hedge fund sources had been trading notes and hopping on conference calls to discuss strange trading patterns in the 10-Year Treasury. We highlighted some suspicious activity in a post from yesterday.

      Sorkin’s sources are worried about shortages of liquidity that could once again create potentially destabilizing rictions in credit markets.

      For more on this, we’d like to remind readers of a post from a few years back that offers a straightforward explanation of this phenomenon).

      It seems sell-side analysts have already seized on the issue: Bank of America also warned in a research note about deteriorating Treasury market liquidity.

      Looking ahead, will America follow Italy’s lead in the direction of – if not outright national domestic travel bans – but the ‘social distancing’ concept that has been bandied about in recent days. Notably, CNBC was practicing its own ‘social distancing’ with Becky Quick reporting in from New Jersey while Sork and Joe Kernen reported from different locations in NY. Heading into the US trading day, the WHO said 124,519 cases as of Thursday morning. Globally, we’ve seen at least 4,607, with Italy reporting 827 deaths. In the US, the Washington Post counted 1,281 cases, a count that includes as-yet-unconfirmed by the CDC but “presumptively” confirmed in state labs.

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      Washington Post

      In Italy, the country woke up to a national travel ban and mass closures of schools and businesses for the first time. In South Africa, officials reported the first case of local transmission of the coronavirus on Thursday, There are concerns that African health systems could be overwhelmed if local transmission accelerates, which is why reports that surfaced a few minutes ago about a man who just traveled back to the country – after recently visiting New York – apparently tested positive, though it’s not clear if these cases are the same.

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      South Africa’s Health Ministry said a 32-year-old man contracted the virus after contact with a Chinese businessman at a time when China is claiming that its economy is nearly 100% back online after the crisis, CNBC reported. It also reported that the death toll from the collapse of a makeshift quarantine in China has climbed to 29.

      Iran’s health minister said Thursday that a national plan to root out all those who are infected contacted 3.5 million people out of the country’s population of 80 million. Dr Saeed Namaki said 270 patients had been hospitalized after being contacted in accordance with the effort, which began last week.

      Meanwhile, on CNBC, Mohamad El-Erian, who has correctly warned investors to stay away from the market since the most recent selloff began, said there’s nothing the world can do now to prevent a recession as more surprises like the NBA suspending its season are inevitably in store.

      “We are going into a global recession We are going to see a string of sudden economic stops,” said Mohammad El-Erian, an economist at Allianz and formerly Bill Gross’s No. 2 at PIMCO.

      So, instead of the “v”-shaped recovery we were promised, it looks like we’ll be getting the “u” shaped rebound, or possibly even the dreaded “l-shaped” recovery, especially if Trump’s battle over the payroll tax holiday eats up more time before the fiscal stimulus package hits. Others will focus on how long until the NBA restarts the season.


      Tyler Durden

      Thu, 03/12/2020 – 22:35

    • Ohio's Top Health Official Says "We Believe 100,000 People" Already Infected With Covid-19 In State
      Ohio’s Top Health Official Says “We Believe 100,000 People” Already Infected With Covid-19 In State

      Ohio’s top public-health official said during a press conference on Thursday where the state’s governor announced a three-week closure of all schools in the state that her office estimates that as many as 117,000 people in the state have already been infected with the novel coronavirus.

      During the press conference, a clip from which we’ve included below, Department of Health Director Amy Acton said that the virus has likely been spreading in the “community” of Ohio, and that, given the number of weeks it has likely been present, at least 1% of the state’s population likely already have the virus.

      “We know now based on the basic facts of community spread we know now that at the very least 1% of our population is carrying this virus…We have 11.7 million people, so that just  gives you a sense of how this virus spreads, and how it’s spreading quickly,” Acton said.

      She went on to explain that the “logorithmic” rate of infection means that for every person who catches the virus will likely spread it to two or three other people.

      “The choices I make for me and my family may not infect us, but we could infect your grandmother,” she said.

      Gov. Mike Dewine and Dr. Acton explained that they knew they were going to close the schools at some point, but by consulting with experts, they figured that now is “the sweet spot…to act”.

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      To put all this in context: as of Thursday evening, Ohio had five confirmed cases.

      A little shaken up by Dr. Acton’s comment? Now that the doctor herself will likely go viral due to the nature of her comments in this clip, it’s only fitting for her to explain steps to keep your family coronavirus-free.

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      Tyler Durden

      Thu, 03/12/2020 – 22:25

    • The US Navy Is Developing Autonomous Submarines That Can Kill On Their Own
      The US Navy Is Developing Autonomous Submarines That Can Kill On Their Own

      Authored by Aaron Kesel via The Mind Unleashed.com,

      The U.S. Navy is secretly developing armed robot submarines that are controlled by onboard artificial intelligence (AI) which could potentially kill without explicit human control.

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      The Office of Naval Research is involved with the development of an AI system called CLAWS, which the agency describes in budget documents as an autonomous undersea weapon system for clandestine use. CLAWS will “increase mission areas into kinetic effects,” they write.

      According to a report by New Scientist, details of the killer submersible were made available as part of the 2020 budget documents. However, not much more is known.

      Very few details were publicly provided about the “top secret” project beyond the fact it will use sensors and algorithms to carry out complex missions on its own.

      It is expected that CLAWS will be installed on the new Orca class robot submarines that have 12 torpedo tubes which are being developed for the Navy by Boeing. But that is simply speculation. What is known is that the system will be able to think and kill on its own. Although according to New Scientist there are hints by the Navy that this will be the case.

      “The Orca will have well-defined interfaces for the potential of implementing cost-effective upgrades in future increments to leverage advances in technology and respond to threat changes,” the Navy said.

      “The Orca will have a modular payload bay, with defined interfaces to support current and future payloads for employment from the vehicle.”

      Autonomous submarines already exist today and can complete tasks without human involvement. However, they lack intelligence and have limited functionality. Anything more complex than a mere location task requires a human operator to work via a remote communications link.

      The new submarines will have a much greater level of artificial intelligence and be able to perform a wider range of functions without a human controller.

      CLAWS was first revealed in 2018 as part of a U.S. Navy bid to “improve the autonomy and survivability of large and extra-large unmanned underwater vehicles,” according to New Scientist.

      When it was first revealed, there was no mention then of weapons being on the autonomous submarine, only a need for it to have sensors and to be able to make decisions.

      Stuart Russell from the University of California Berkeley told New Scientist it was a “dangerous development” and use of AI. “Equipping a fully autonomous vehicle with lethal weapons is a significant step, and one that risks an accidental escalation in a way that does not apply to sea mines.”

      In “Mind the Gap The Lack of Accountability for Killer Robots,” Human Rights Watch (HRW) poses and important question: what happens when a robot accidentally commits a war crime? The answer thus far is nothing, as there is no accountability.

      “No accountability means no deterrence of future crimes, no retribution for victims, no social condemnation of the responsible party,” said Bonnie Docherty, senior Arms Division researcher at the HRW and the report’s lead author at the time.

      As TMU reported people like Brandon Bryant whom controlled drones for the U.S. military, have a conscience while robots will kill without remorse.  Since 2013, there has been a campaign to Stop Killer Robots encouraging countries to preemptively ban fully autonomous weapons.


      Tyler Durden

      Thu, 03/12/2020 – 22:05

    • Global Liquidation Resumes: Japan Jolted, Crypto Collapses, China Crushed
      Global Liquidation Resumes: Japan Jolted, Crypto Collapses, China Crushed

      It is becoming clearer and clearer that the utter carnage going on in global markets appears to be some massive fund force-liquidating as every asset-class is getting destroyed despite jawboning from The Fed (as well as massive liquidity injections), ECB, Bank of Korea, Bank of Japan, and various politicians around the world.

      After today’s carnage in US and Europe…

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      Things are getting worse…

      Dow futures are down over 400 points… (down 2300 points from the fed spike highs)

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      Japan’s Nikkei 225 is down 10%, the biggest daily drop since the Tsunami almost exactly 9 years ago. This is Japan’s worst week since 2008

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      Chinese stocks are finally catching down to reality…

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      But are still massively outperforming US and Europe since the virus hit..

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      Elsewhere in Asia – total bloodbath:

      • *AUSTRALIA’S BENCHMARK ASX 200 INDEX FALLS 8%

      • *PHILIPPINES STOCK EXCHANGE INDEX EXTENDS DROP TO 10.4%

      • *HANG SENG INDEX FUTURES EXTEND DROP TO 8%

      • *SGX NIFTY INDEX FUTURES DROP AS MUCH AS 9.6% IN SINGAPORE

      • *KOREA 10-YEAR BOND FUTURES DROP BY MOST SINCE AT LEAST 2011

      • *S. KOREA KOSDAQ TRADING HALTED AFTER INDEX DROPS MORE THAN 8%

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      Asian FX markets are crashing…

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      Yuan continues to plummet…

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      Cryptos are utterly collapsing – this is the worst 2 day drop for Bitcoin since April 2013…and it’s crashing on the heaviest volume since Feb 2018

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      Crushing the cryptocurrency back to one-year lows…

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      Gold is also getting flushed…

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      And gold is getting dumped against yen too – BoJ in da house?

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      But bonds are bid. 10Y Yield are down 15bps – which looks like nothing on this chart after such a colossal week…

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      So much for that promise of trillions of dollars of liquidity?


      Tyler Durden

      Thu, 03/12/2020 – 21:50

    • Iran Asks IMF For $5BN Emergency Loan As Death Toll Soars Near 500
      Iran Asks IMF For $5BN Emergency Loan As Death Toll Soars Near 500

      Citing vast shortages of medical supplies and pharmaceuticals due to US-led sanctions, Iran is urging IMF relief as it battles coronavirus to the tune of $5 billion. 

      Days ago Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif accused President Trump on Twitter of “maliciously tightening US’ illegal sanctions with aim of draining Iran’s resources needed in the fight against Covid-19 — while our citizens are dying from it.” Now he’s urging immediate emergency aid:

      Iran has asked the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for emergency funding to help it fight the coronavirus outbreak, which has hit the Islamic Republic hard, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said in a tweet on Thursday.

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      Iranian cabinet members wearing face masks attend their meeting in Tehran, Iran. Source: Iranian Presidency via AP

      As Reuters reports Thursday, Iran’s Central Bank chief Abdolnaser Hemmati revealed in a social media post that “in a letter addressed to the head of IMF, I have requested five billion U.S. dollar from the RFI emergency fund to help our fight against the coronavirus”.

      And Zarif in a follow-up message noted that IMF managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, “has stated that countries affected by #COVID19 will be supported via Rapid Financial Instrument. Our Central Bank requested access to this facility immediately.”

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      Iran remains among the top outbreak epicenters outside China, as cases spike in the Middle East.

      Per new reports confirmed cases in the region have pushed well past 10,000, with most in the Islamic Republic:

      A slew of new coronavirus infections pushed the number of cases in the Middle East well past 10,000 on Thursday – and many of those infected are linked to Iran.

      The Islamic Republic government, which said more than 360 people have died and about 9,000 are infected by the virus, has increasingly come under fire, accused of underrepresenting the impact of the virus on its people.

      Per the AP, the death toll has reached 429 as of later in the day Thursday and is expected to climb further.

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      But at this point the true numbers of infected in Iran are widely believed to be well into the multiple tens of thousands, as the country’s ill-prepared and severely short-on-supplies health system is overwhelmed. 

      Zarif concluded his latest appeal for emergency IMF aid by saying, “Viruses don’t discriminate. Nor should humankind.”


      Tyler Durden

      Thu, 03/12/2020 – 21:45

    • Is South Korea About To Unleash A Neutron Bomb Across Global Stock Markets
      Is South Korea About To Unleash A Neutron Bomb Across Global Stock Markets

      Last June, when stocks were merrily grinding higher without a care in the world, and certainly oblivious of the crash that was about to slam global markets half a year later, we explained why South Korea’s massive autocallable issuance could be “ground zero” of the next vol catastrophe.

      In retrospect it wasn’t: the proverbial “black swan” of the next crisis turned out to be a Chinese black bat, but that doesn’t mean that the world is now safe from what could be a potential volatility tsunami, triggered in South Korea and which sends global markets far lower than where they are now.

      But before we go any further, put your hand up if you know what an autocallable is, and since there are barely any hands in the air, let’s back up.

      As the “world’s most bearish hedge fund manager”, Horseman Global’s Russell Clark explained in January 2019, autocallables, which are fundmentally structured products that are extremely popular with South Korean traders, are best thought of as a service. A bank will offer to sell insurance on the stock market on your behalf, so that you can generate an income from the premiums received. So rather than buying an autocallable, it’s better to think of an investor as posting collateral for a bank to sell puts on their behalf. Typically, the bank will tell the investor what sort of yield they can generate, for a certain level of insurance. For example, a 5% return as long as the S&P 500 does not fall to 2000, from roughly 2900 today.

      Typically, when markets fall, the price of insurance rises, and the bank does not need to sell that much insurance to meet a 5% yield target for an investor. Conversely, when markets rise, insurance prices fall, and banks would need to sell more insurance to meet the target yield. Hence, in normal markets, the risk to clients is balanced. More insurance is sold when market rise as insurance prices are low, and less insurance is sold when market fall as insurance prices rise.

      However, when there are times when this process goes haywire: i) either when a negative gamma feedback loop emerges, similar to what happened in February 2018 with the VIX complex in the US that liquidated 3x levered inverse vol ETNs, or ii) when the market drop is so precipitous that there is a step function lower in the value of the collateral, and local banks flood clients with margin calls, which in turn prompt a forced liquidation of more risk assets, triggering a feedback loop cascade where selling begets more selling, and not just of South Korean assets, but global, as most of the risk assets collateralizing the autocallables universe are not domestic to South Korea.

      We are now deep in scenario II, because shortly after the US suffered its biggest drop since Black Monday 1987, South Korea’s Kospi entered a bear market Friday, while the Kosdaq was halted limit down after tumbling 8%. Furthermore, the Kospi broke below its 200-month average near 1,750 – that’, according to Bloomberg, is a marker that served as a support level during the global financial crisis.

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      The drop was so big that the Bank of Korea reportedly was discussing the need for a special meeting, and would consider “appropriate steps” to stabilize markets, including open-market operations if needed, while closely monitoring bond markets, according to a Bloomberg update.

      However, if Horseman is right, the pain may just be getting started for both retail and institution linvestors facing massive margin calls. Worse, if the long awaited autocallable liquidation cascade is finally triggered, the shockwave that is unleashed in Seoul could rattles global stock markets, resulting in another – potentially even more dire – selling avalanche.

      In a note published today, Horseman’s resurgent CIO, Russell Clarke, also known as the world’s biggest bear whose fund returned a whopping 20% during February’s rout warns that “the continued issuance from Korea suggests that autocallables have not yet been knocked in, and in fact investors are taking advantage of higher volatility to get higher yields.”

      However, there is a limit to everything, and today violent liquidation in South Korea may be just the trigger.

      Below we lay out the latest thoughts and observations from Clark, who waited patiently for years to be proven right on his doomsday predictions, and which are now being validated courtesy of the biggest weekly crash in global stocks since the financial crisis.

      * * *

      Korea and the KOSPI 200 are the spiritual home of autocallables. Historically, the KOSPI 200 was a highly volatile market but the long bull market in semiconductors, combined with rampant volatility selling, caused market volatility in the KOSPI 200 to collapse. Even the collapse in memory prices had little effect on KOSPI 200 volatility in 2019. However, the KOSPI volatility has recently broken out to levels not seen since 2011. (Price as at 10.00 GMT – 12 March 2020)

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      Despite the breakout in volatility there has been no reduction in the issuance of autocallables. In 2015, HSCEI based autocallables were knocked in causing issuance to collapse. The continued issuance from Korea suggests that autocallables have not yet been knocked in, and in fact investors are taking advantage of higher volatility to get higher yields.

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      Meanwhile, the KOSPI 200 is still above levels that have held since 2011. It is likely the most KOSPI 200 strike prices are set somewhere below the 230 price that has held since 2011.

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      Autocallables issued in Korea will often include Euro Stoxx 50 in a “worst-of structures” market. A good proxy for the performance of this strategy is the Euro Stoxx 50 PutWrite Strategy. This has recently deteriorated sharply.

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      The spike in volatility has coincided with a steep decline in the share prices of French banks that structure many of the autocallable products.

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      If autocallables are triggered, then implied volatility should move even higher from current levels. For clearinghouses, the high level of both implied and realised volatility should lead to increased in margins. As a reminder, LCH as per its Q3 2019 disclosures was still running at initial margins at very low levels to variation margins, although both rose significantly. During the strains of Brexit initial margin rose to be multiples of variation margin.

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      One more timely way to monitor margins is to look at initial margins for large index futures. With rising volatility, margins have been increasing even as the S&P falls. To normalise over time we divide the amount of margin for trading the future by contract value. Cost of trading has recently risen to 6.4%, the highest level since 2011.

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      For OTC options, we can use BIS data to get an idea of initial margins. Taking the gross value of margins and dividing it by outstanding notional we can see that values were at a level seen before the global financial crisis and the dot com bubble.

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      Clark’s ominous conclusion: “Market volatility has risen significantly, but margin and collateral in the system still looks too low. Should autocallables break barriers in the KOSPI 200 or the Euro Stoxx 50, then the structurers will turn into volatility buyers, not sellers. Higher volatility leading to margin calls look likely, which could drive the market lower.“

      For much more on autocallables, please read “As Autocallable Issuance Explodes, Is This “Ground Zero” Of The Next Vol Catastrophe“


      Tyler Durden

      Thu, 03/12/2020 – 21:24

    • Goodbye To All That: The Demise Of Globalization And Imperial Pretensions
      Goodbye To All That: The Demise Of Globalization And Imperial Pretensions

      Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

      The decline phase of the S-Curve is just beginning…

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      Globalization and Imperial Pretensions have been decaying for years; now the tide has turned definitively against them. The Covid-19 pandemic didn’t cause the demise of globalization and Imperial Pretensions; it merely pushed the rickety structures over the edge.

      It’s human nature to reckon the current trend will continue running more or less forever, and that temporal, contingent structures are permanent. Globalization flourished because a unique set of conditions created fertile ground for the transfer of production to China and other emerging economies and the global expansion of the magic elixir of skyrocketing consumption, credit.

      Credit-starved economies which are suddenly flooded with credit (for example, China) experience an explosion of investment in production, infrastructure and in business and household consumption.

      In this boost phase of globalization, capital flows from stagnant developed economies to emerging economies to earn higher returns, and production moves to these low-cost economies to take advantage of low labor costs and lax environmental standards.

      It’s a win-win dynamic for credit-starved emerging economies and stagnant developed economies, as the emerging economies get investment capital, jobs and technology transfers while the developed economies get higher profits due to the lower production costs and lower-priced goods and services.

      Put another way: globalization is simply one manifestation of the financialization of the global economy. Developed-world central and private banks create trillions of dollars in fiat currencies that then slosh around the world, seeking the highest return. Whatever can be exploited in the short-term is exploited and then capital moves on, leaving environmental destruction and distorted economies in its wake.

      Alas, the virtuous-cycle boost phase financialization soon burns through all the easy gains and then speculative gains replace productive gains: since over-investment in production has led to over-capacity and near-zero profits, capital flows into speculative gambles and money-pit bridges to nowhere that do little to actually boost the productivity of the real-world economy.

      This transition from investing in higher productivity to pouring money into speculative bets is so gradual that few even recognize the transition until it’s too late. All too quickly the economy becomes dependent not on gains in productivity–the only enduring source of wealth creation– but on speculative gambles paying off.

      Once the economy becomes dependent on speculative bets paying off, central banks and governments rig the roulette wheel to insure the big gamblers always win. This rigging of speculative markets further distorts the economy and society by destroying price discovery and exacerbating soaring wealth inequality.

      As the financial elites become accustomed to “winning” the rigged games, they increase their high-risk gambling, confident that even the highest-risk bets will always pay off. In this universe of moral hazard, it makes sense to borrow as much as possible to plow into the highest-risk bets. Why not maximize one’s gains at the rigged tables?

      This institutionalization of financial folly created an extremely risky structure that is now breaking down. Bets placed with borrowed money are no longer paying off, and so whatever collateral remains must be liquidated to meet margin calls and pay down debt.

      In the boost phase of globalization, it made sense to maximize profits by optimizing the global supply chain for the lowest cost of production and shipping via distant production and just-in-time delivery. The risks of this extreme optimization for profits above all else is now apparent as dependence on production in distant lands is not within our control.

      The apparently risk-free paradise of globalization is actually riddled with potentially catastrophic risks. Every node in this complex network is a potential point of failure, and since redundancy and less tightly bound systems were sacrificed to maximize profits, there is no way to restore the supply chain with a few nips and tucks.

      As for the Imperial Pretensions of both China and the U.S.–these were as dependent on financialization and globalization as global supply chains. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) exemplifies an era that has already turned to dust, and American pretensions of being able to afford large-scale global meddling are equally embedded in a zeitgeist that has lost its coherence and relevancy.

      The decline phase of the S-Curve is just beginning. Much of what we’ve taken as permanent will melt into air, and that’s far from a negative development.

      My COVID-19 Pandemic Posts

      *  *  *

      My recent books:

      Audiobook edition now available:
      Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World ($13)
      (Kindle $6.95, print $11.95) Read the first section for free (PDF).

      Pathfinding our Destiny: Preventing the Final Fall of Our Democratic Republic ($6.95 (Kindle), $12 (print), $13.08 ( audiobook): Read the first section for free (PDF).

      The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake $1.29 (Kindle), $8.95 (print); read the first chapters for free (PDF)

      Money and Work Unchained $6.95 (Kindle), $15 (print) Read the first section for free (PDF).

      *  *  *

      If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.


      Tyler Durden

      Thu, 03/12/2020 – 21:05

    • Black Thursday: "One Giant Margin Call" Drags Dow Down 10%
      Black Thursday: “One Giant Margin Call” Drags Dow Down 10%

      Rosenberg Research‘s David Rosenberg provides our intro today:

      “The fact that Treasuries, munis, and gold are getting hit tells me that everything is for sale right now. One giant margin call where even the safe-havens aren’t safe anymore. Except for cash.”

      The  Fed unveiled an unprecedented liquidity facility to rescue malfunction Treasury markets from themselves.. but it failed terribly.

      For a few brief moments, as Dow futs exploded 1500 points higher, it looked like it might just work… but no…

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      Stocks puked into the close! Look at Small Caps!!! The Dow was down 10%! This was utter carnage today…

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      This was the biggest daily drop since 1987.

      Additionally, the last four days have seen an 18% crash in the equal-weight S&P – that is more aggressive than during the peak of the financial crisis…

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      As one veteran trader said:

      “this is the market telling The Fed it has to buy stocks.”

      This is what it looks like when what shred of Fed liquidity that was left finally evaporates…

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      Investors are at the most-extreme fear level on record…

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      And as far as The Fed ‘solving’ the liquidity or dollar shortage issues… it utterly failed!

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      Source: Bloomberg

      Trannies and Small Caps are now underwater since Trump was elected…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      The ongoing liquidation of one or many risk-parity funds, as we noted earlier…

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      …appears to be continuing with bonds and stocks both getting dumped as the funds are delevered.

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      Source: Bloomberg

      And the bond-stock correlation has collapsed…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      The S&P remains above the Dec 2018 lows for now, buit blew through the 200-week average that been notable support…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      Europe was a bloodbath:

      • STOXX EUROPE 600 EXTENDS DROP, WORST DAILY LOSS EVER

      • STOXX 600 BANKS INDEX AT RECORD LOW

      • FTSE 100 INDEX DROPS AS MUCH AS 11%, MOST SINCE 1987 CRASH

      • FTSE 100 HITS 12-YEAR LOWS

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      Source: Bloomberg

      Virus-related stocks crashed… again…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      Banks were blitzed…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      VIX exploded higher – to its highest close since Oct 22, 2008…but this time the velocity is far faster

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      The VIX term structure is almost as inverted as it was at the peak of the Lehman crisis…

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      HY Credit was hammered…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      HY Energy credit markets are getting destroyed…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      Investment grade credit is also really ugly – not just the level but the velocity is unprecedented…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      The chaos in Treasury markets – which The Fed hoped to fix with its $4 trillion bazooka – remain as liquidity evaporated again and yields soared into the close, despite equity ugliness…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      A mixed picture across the term structure today with the short-end bid and the long-end dumped (3Y -6bps, 30Y +8bbps)…

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      And once again, yields were puked higher after the 1430 margin call…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      The dollar accelerated higher again today as everything else was sold to grab cash (but did drop on The Fed’s actions)…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      Crypto was clubbed like a baby seal across the board…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      Bitcoin puked to below $6000 intraday, blowing through all it skey technicals…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      Commodities were all smashed today…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      WTI was hit hard today, plunging over 5% and trading as low as $30.02 intraday…

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      Gold was smashed lower today on massive volume as it seems the “liquidate eveything” plan is in play…

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      Finally,  it is notable that this is the first systemic crisis since the European collapse…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      And in case you thought the ‘fortress balance sheet’ banks were going to save the world… the world’s most systemically important banks crashed to record lows today…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      The market is demanding almost 100bps of rate-cuts by The Fed by next week…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      The deer are back!

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      And if none of that worries you – this might. USA’s sovereign credit risk is rising notably…

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      Makes you wonder…


      Tyler Durden

      Thu, 03/12/2020 – 20:45

    • Nightmare Scenario: Iraq Detects Suspected Covid-19 Cases In Overcrowded Refugee Camp
      Nightmare Scenario: Iraq Detects Suspected Covid-19 Cases In Overcrowded Refugee Camp

      War-torn regions of the Middle East remain hugely vulnerable for the spread of Covid-19 due to hundreds of thousands of families packed into often filthy temporary settlements already running low on basic staples for survival. 

      And now a nightmare scenario is unfolding in Iraq as the United Nations has recorded the first suspected coronavirus cases inside an Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) camp.

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      Refugee camp in northern Iraq, file image via The Telegraph.

      The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) issued an alert in its latest humanitarian report this week, noting also the World Health Organization (WHO) has dispatched additional supplies and medical devices to Iraq amid broader closures of public spaces after at least 71 confirmed cases nationwide.

      But with millions of refugees in the region, especially along the Turkish-Syrian border, and after Erdogan has effectively ‘opened the gates’ on waves of migrants headed to Europe, the spark that could erupt an explosion of outbreaks in camps across the Middle East may have started. 

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

      The alarming new OCHA report reads: 

      The first suspected cases of COVID-19 were documented in an IDP camp in Ninewa; the affected persons were transported to hospital, and a makeshift isolation unit was put in place. Sterilization activities are under way.

      Crucially, this region lies along the Syrian border in Iraq’s northwest, and is near Turkey in a broader border area which has over the past years witnessed entire ‘refugee cities’ erected. 

      Surrounding countries like Kuwait have taken proactive measures for heightened testing along their borders and points of entry, but other regional governments have lagged behind: 

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

      The WHO previously said it’s especially concerned of an outbreak among refugee populations in war-torn regions of Iraq and Syria. 

      “Refugees and internally displaced populations across Iraq and Syria have been identified as the most vulnerable groups in the region, should the spread of the virus become a pandemic,” The Guardian reported of recent statements. 

      “Health officials in both countries remain under-equipped to deal with such a a reality that seems more possible with each passing day,” the report added.

      And as Turkey continues to allow and even actively facilitate the passage of refugees and migrants into Greece and other EU states, the Covid-19 crisis currently shutting down entire countries in Europe is set to explode further.


      Tyler Durden

      Thu, 03/12/2020 – 20:45

    • China Faces Interest Rate Dilemma With No Winning Options
      China Faces Interest Rate Dilemma With No Winning Options

      Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

      Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets has an interesting chain of Tweets on China’s unsolvable interest rate mess.

      Preemptive Steps Needed to Contain CPI

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      China Daily reports Preemptive Steps Needed to Contain CPI

      China’s consumer price index (CPI), the main gauge of inflation, grew 5.2 percent year-on-year in February, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday. The growth, in line with market expectations, was slightly lower than 5.4 percent in January. On a monthly basis, consumer prices edged up 0.8 percent.

      Food prices, which account for nearly one-third of weighting in China’s CPI, went up 21.9 percent year-on-year in February, contributing 4.45 percentage points to the rise in the index as the novel coronavirus outbreak disrupted market supplies and demands.

      That the CPI has been above 5 percent for two consecutive months has raised fears that China could face high inflation in the long run, which could have a negative impact on people’s livelihoods that have already been affected by the novel coronavirus epidemic.

      Bank of China Faces a Real Dilemma with Interest Rates

      Hiking rates in the midst of shocks like this are out of the question. There are no preemptive steps to take.

      CPI Inflation is at 5% but bank interest rates are only 1.5%.

      Food production has collapsed, but lower interest rates to stimulate will stimulate the wrong things while hurting consumer savings.

      Lower spreads will hurt bank profits and the Chinese banking system is a basket of nonperforming SOE loans.

      Pettis Tweet Thread on China’s Dilemma

      1. It seems to me that the PBoC faces a real dilemma with interest rates. Thanks to still-soaring food costs CPI inflation in February remained above 5%, well above the deposit rate, with 1-year deposits at 1.50% and average deposits much lower. This means…

      2. …that the value of household savings is being eroded by rising food costs, and this effectively represents a wealth transfer away from households, with poorer households being hit harder (both because of limited savings opportunities and because food is a larger share of…

      3. …their consumption basket). This is exactly the opposite of what Beijing needs if it is to reduce its over-reliance on spurious investment to generate growth. If households have to increase their savings rate in order to make up for the inflation tax, they must spend less…

      4. …on consumption, in which case China needs more investment to generate the same amount of growth. This is why the PBoC doesn’t want to lower the deposit rate. But it cannot raise rates either. Unlike in 2000-11, when banks and corporate/government borrowers were the huge…

      5. …beneficiaries from extremely negative real interest rates, they aren’t this time around. With negative PPI inflation, and a 1-year loan prime rate of 4.05%, manufacturers may in fact be borrowing at very high real rates, especially given that all the inflation is showing…

      6. …up in food prices, whereas the prices of the manufactured goods they produce are stable or even trending down. This probably just means that last year’s collapse in meat production – which is the main source of CPI inflation – is being paid for in part by households, in…

      7. …the form of an erosion in the value of their savings, in part by businesses, in the form of high real borrowing costs, and of course in part by farmers. This makes it very difficult for the PBoC either to raise lending rates or lower deposit rates, and of course it can’t…

      8. …narrow the spread because that would effectively force already-undercapitalized banks to absorb the cost. Once food prices drop we might see a very sharp reversal of wealth transfers from the household sector, but until then the PBoC doesn’t have much space for maneuver.

      Here is the Lead Tweet if you want to see it all on Twitter.

      Inflation or Deflation?

      This was the subject of a debate on Twitter. Many see a round of inflation but I generally see it differently.

      The collapse in demand will take care of shortages except for critical things like food.

      China has a unique problem. Low food production and a soaring CPI in response.

      Unless there is a food production problem in the US, the Fed will not face the same dilemma.

      Exporters Hit Hardest

      The global export powerhouses will get hit the hardest by this.

      China and Germany are at the top of the list.

      Deflationary US Outcome

      I believe a Very Deflationary Outcome Has Begun.

      Prepare for another round of debt deflation, possibly accompanied by a lower CPI especially if one accurately includes home prices instead of rents in the CPI calculation.

      Central banks’ seriously misguided attempts to defeat routine consumer price deflation is what fuels the destructive asset bubbles that eventually collapse

      I am not blaming the Fed for the coronavirus and these shocks.

      However, I am blaming the Fed for its erroneous inflationary tactics that blew three of the biggest economic bubble in succession: 2000, 2007, 2020.

      Bubbles are inherently deflationary. It’s asset asset bubble deflation that is damaging, not routine price deflation

      “Deflation may actually boost output. Lower prices increase real incomes and wealth. And they may also make export goods more competitive,” stated a BIS study.

      For a discussion of the BIS deflation study, please see Historical Perspective on CPI Deflations: How Damaging are They?

      Supply Shock and a Demand Shock Coming Up

      A Supply Shock and a Demand Shock are Coming Up.

      Worth Repeating

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

      Deflation is not really about prices. It’s about the value of debt on the books of banks that cannot be paid back by zombie corporations and individuals.

      75% of Companies Suffer From Coronavirus Supply Chain Disruptions

      The ISM says 75% of Companies Suffer From Coronavirus Supply Chain Disruptions

      Don’t expect inflation out of this except in medical supplies and related items.

      Q. Why?

      A: The demand shock over stock market decline and lost wages has not been felt yet. It soon will.


      Tyler Durden

      Thu, 03/12/2020 – 20:25

    • Massive Monkey Gangs Are Fighting For Food On Thailand Streets As Tourist Food Disappears
      Massive Monkey Gangs Are Fighting For Food On Thailand Streets As Tourist Food Disappears

      Coronavirus isn’t just causing humans to fight in the aisles of Target over toilet paper. Today in “signs of the apocalypse”, hungry monkey gangs are also swarming and fighting – for food – on the streets of Thailand. 

      Monkeys in the country are usually well fed by tourists who visit Central Thailand, but visitors have plummeted as a result of the coronavirus outbreak, which has hit the Asian region hard. 

      The animals shown in a video are reported to be two separate “rival gangs” that dwell in the city, according to the Daily Mail. 

      Half of the monkeys are said to live in the temple areas, while the others live in the city. The two groups don’t usually meet but ended up doing so this past week.

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      The animals are shown wandering separately looking for food, but once one monkey finds a banana, the chase is on. 

      The ferocity of the animals shocked even locals, who are used to seeing the monkeys on a daily basis. One onlooker, who captured video, said: “They looked more like wild dogs than monkeys. They went crazy for the single piece of food. I’ve never seen them this aggressive.”

      The onlooker explained: “I think the monkeys were very, very hungry. There’s normally a lot of tourists here to feed the monkeys but now there are not as many, because of the coronavirus.”

      Hundreds of monkeys are shown in this Daily Mail video fighting over a single banana:

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js


      Tyler Durden

      Thu, 03/12/2020 – 20:05

    • Judge Orders Chelsea Manning Released From Jail Following Suicide Attempt
      Judge Orders Chelsea Manning Released From Jail Following Suicide Attempt

      Chelsea Manning was ordered on Thursday to be released from jail, after a federal judge ruled that her testimony against WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange was no longer necessary. The decision comes one day after Manning reportedly attempted to commit suicide while in federal custody in Alexandria, VA. 

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      Judge Anthony Trenga of the Eastern District of Virginia said that because the grand jury was finished deliberating, Manning’s testimony was no longer necessary – ending the former Army analyst’s incarceration which began last May after refusing to appear before the panel and testify against Assange.

      Manning was convicted in 2013 of leaking US military secrets and sentenced to 35 years in military prison at Fort Leavenworth before her sentence was commuted in 2017. Assange, meanwhile, was indicted in 2018 on a federal charge of conspiring with Manning to assist in the transmission of U.S. state secrets to WikiLeaks.

      For refusing to comply with the order to testify, Manning was hit with a $256,000 fine according to The Hill.

      Manning’s publicist, Andy Stepanian, said on Wednesday that his client was recovering in a hospital after the suicide attempt.

      Last month, Manning’s lawyers argued for her release on the grounds that detention was unlawfully punitive and served no purpose.


      Tyler Durden

      Thu, 03/12/2020 – 19:45

    Digest powered by RSS Digest

    Mar 12

    Today’s News 12th March 2020

    • "Bracing For Impact" – China Shock To Strike Germany's Largest Port In Days, As Trade Volumes Collapse 40%
      “Bracing For Impact” – China Shock To Strike Germany’s Largest Port In Days, As Trade Volumes Collapse 40%

      The worst-case coronavirus scenario is now being realized for German ports, as collapsing trade volumes from China could push Europe’s largest economy into recession. 

      For the last three weeks, global markets have been obsessed with economic paralysis that is quickly spreading across Asia, Europe, and the Americas. An economic shock combined with a virus outbreak is what triggered a macro matters moment for investors, who sold first and are asking questions later, as it appears a global trade recession could be on the horizon. 

      The port of Hamburg, Germany’s largest trading hub, reported a 40% plunge in trade volumes for February. The weakness was a combination of the Chinese New Year festivities and the onset of economic shocks triggered by the virus shutting down two-thirds of China’s economy.

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      Axel Mattern, CEO of the Port of Hamburg Marketing, told Reuters that German ports are bracing for a continuation of declining trade volumes in the days and weeks ahead. The cause of this weakness is purely coronavirus disruptions that caused China’s economy to collapse. 

      “We’re currently bracing for the impact. It will hit us with full force from mid-March,” Mattern said, adding that “the entire supply chains have been thrown completely off balance…we expect container volumes to drop sharply due to the coronavirus.” 

      What’s troubling is that at least a quarter of Hamburg’s trade volumes in 2019 originated from China. This could suggest that Germany’s economy is highly exposed to foreign shocks, with limited buffers to cushion the blow. 

      “And this period of weakness has now been extended due to the coronavirus – and there is no end in sight. Nobody can say how long this weak phase will last,” Mattern said.

      The trade and supply chain shock is expected to tilt Germany into recession for the first half of the year. Chancellor Angela Merkel is running out of options on how to stimulate the economy.

      Merkel has signaled that she is ‘open’ to suspending Germany’s ‘zero-deficit rule’ – better known as the ‘debt break’ – to bolster the fight against the coronavirus.

      The shock was not a black swan, but rather a black bat in Wuhan, which is turning out to be one of the biggest economic shocks in decades to strike the global economy. Now the shock has infected global supply chains and traveling towards Western countries. 

      We noted last week that the Port of Los Angeles, the busiest seaport not only in the US but in the entire Western hemisphere, is also bracing for a “substantial hit” in trade volumes from China.

      Mattern pointed out bright spots are developing in China as some businesses have increased output but far away from full capacity. 

      “What we hear from on site in Shanghai is that there are first signs of normalisation. In Shanghai, more than 50% of employees now go to work. But then again, this also shows that we’re still a long way from normal and a ‘business as usual’.”

      German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier said the shock is expected to hit Germany’s industrial sector over the next few weeks.

      Shipping giant Maersk warned last month that containerized flows across the world would likely stay muted in the first half. 

      “As factories in China are closed for longer than usual in connection with the Chinese New Year as a result of the COVID-19, we expect a weak start of the year,” Maersk warned. 

      Reuters noted that the decline in trade volume between China and Germany has led to a shipping container shortage in the country.

      “I have just spoken to an important customer from the greater Hamburg area. They just can’t get hold of containers anymore,” Mattern said. “If you currently want to ship a container, you have to expect higher prices.”

      Duisburg, Europe’s biggest inland port, has warned rail volumes from China have been reduced, and will likely remain in a slump for the first half.

      To sum up, the bat shock from Wuhan has taken a little more than a month to reach Europe and could start hitting Germany’s industrial base this week, if not next. This all suggests that twin shocks are about to strike Europe’s largest economy, one being an industrial shock from China, and the other being a demand shock in services, as tens of millions of people in Europe avoid public areas as virus cases and deaths erupt on the continent. Europe is the new China; its economy is set to crash. 

       


      Tyler Durden

      Thu, 03/12/2020 – 02:45

    • 30,000 US Soldiers Arrive In Europe Without Masks
      30,000 US Soldiers Arrive In Europe Without Masks

      Authored by Manlio Dinucci via VoltaireNet.org,

      The United States are demonstrating their power by organising the largest transfer of their troops in Europe on the occasion of the Defender Europe 20 exercises. This country, which only a few years ago sacrificed its soldiers without warning in its nuclear tests, is taking no precautions for its soldiers faced with the coronavirus epidemic.

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      The United States have raised the alert for the corona virus in Italy to level 3 – (« avoid non-essential travel »), and taken it to level 4 for Lombardy and Veneto (« do not travel »), the same level as for China. The airline companies American Airlines and Delta Air Lines have cancelled all their flights between New York and Milan. US citizens who are travelling to Germany, Poland and other European countries are at alert level 2, and must take « increased precautions ».

      But there is a category of US citizens which is exempt from these standards : the 20,000 soldiers who have begun to arrive from the United States to the ports and airports of Europe for the Defender Europe 20 exercises, the greatest deployment of US troops in Europe in the last 25 years. With those who are already present, approximately 30,000 US soldiers will be participating in the execises in April and May, alongside 7,000 others from the 17 member countries and partners of NATO, including Italy.

      The first armoured unit arrived from the port of Savannah, USA at Bremerhaven in Germany. A total of 20,000 pieces of military equipment are arriving from the USA at six European ports (in Belgium, Holland, Germany, Latvia and Estonia). 13,000 others are provided by the stocks that were pre-positioned by the US Army Europe, mainly in Germany, Holland and Belgium.

      These operations, explains the US Army Europe, « require the participation of tens of thousands of soldiers, military personnel and civilians from numerous nations ». At the same time, the majority of the contingent of 20,000 soldiers arrive from the USA, landing at seven European airports. Among this number are 6,000 from the National Guard of 15 States : including Arizona, Florida, Montana, New York and Virginia. At the start of the exercise in April – explains the US Army Europe – the 30,000 US soldiers « will deploy throughout the European region » in order to « protect Europe from any potential threat », with a clear reference to the « Russian menace ». General Tod Wolters – who commands US forces as well as the NATO forces in Europe, as Supreme Allied Commander – assures that the European Union, NATO and the United States European Command, have worked together to improve the infrastructures ». This will allow military convoys to move quickly along the 4,000 kilometres of transit routes.

      Tens of thousands of soldiers will cross the frontiers to perform exercises in ten countries. In Poland, US soldiers will arrive in twelve training areas, equipped with approximately 2,500 vehicles. US paratroopers from the 173rd Brigade based in Venetia, and Italians from the Brigade Folgore based in Tuscany, will go to Latvia for a joint launching exercise.

      Defender Europe 20 is being carried out in order to « increase the capacity of deploying a major combat force in Europe from the United States ». It is taking place according to times and procedures which make it practically impossible to submit tens of thousands of soldiers to the sanitary standards set up to deal with the coronavirus, and prevent their contact with local inhabitants during their rest periods. Furthermore, the US Army Europe Rock Band will be giving a series of free concerts in Germany, Poland and Latvia, which are sure to attract a large public.

      The 30,000 US soldiers, who will « deploy throughout the European region », are thus exempt from the preventative standards set up to deal with the coronavirus crisis which, on the other hand, do apply to civilians. The assurance given by the US Army Europe suffices : « we have the coronavirus under surveillance » and « our forces are in good health ».

      At the same time, no-one is considering the environmental impact of a military exercise of this scale. US Abrams tanks will be taking part – each of them weighs 70 tonnes, with armour-plating made of depleted uranium, and consumes 400 litres of fuel for 100 kilometres, producing heavy pollution in order to achieve maximum power.

      In this situation, what is the reaction of the European Union and national authorities, and what is the WHO doing about it? They are covering their faces with masks, not only to cover their mouths and noses, but also their eyes.


      Tyler Durden

      Thu, 03/12/2020 – 02:00

    • The Moral Panic About Capitalism Threatens American Potential
      The Moral Panic About Capitalism Threatens American Potential

      Authored by Joseph Sorrentino via HumanEvents.com,

      We need to trust in the free enterprise system – now more than ever…

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      According to Alexandra Ocasio Cortez, “No one ever makes a billion dollars. You take a billion dollars.” At least, that’s what the Representative from New York recently argued at a Martin Luther King, Jr. Day event in Harlem.

      Speaking hypothetically about billionaires making widgets, she added: “You didn’t make those widgets. You sat on a couch while thousands of people were paid modern-day slave wages, and in some cases real modern-day slavery.” According to AOC, the mechanisms of capitalism not only allow, they mandate theft. In her view, business success is synonymous with the mass exploitation of labor.

      AOC is far from alone. Many leading Democrats have condemned the wealthy and blamed them for nearly all modern-day plights–a tactic that has proved useful at arousing populist anger on the campaign trail. It appears to be working, and not just in places or with demographics we would expect. A recent CBS News poll revealed that Texas Democratic primary voters view capitalism (in comparison to Socialism) even less favorably than California Democratic primary voters.

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

      The rhetoric and debates coming out of the left—and, at times, even the right—have fixated on how much to tax wealth, instead of how to help create wealth. With Andrew Yang’s exit from the Democratic primary, we lost one of the few candidates who talked openly about declining entrepreneurship and the importance of business creation as an antidote to economic decline.

      And it’s not just the politicians that have scapegoated capitalism. Plastered across our newspapers, there are headlines like, “Capitalism is in crisis,” “Capitalism is failing,” or “Capitalism, as we know it, is dead.” (The latter was most recently expressed in a New York Times editorial by billionaire Salesforce CEO, Marc Benioff, who amassed his considerable wealth thanks to … capitalism).

      This consistent bombardment is not only reshaping political discourse but impacting how young Americans view the future. At a time when global competition is heating up, and America’s innovation boom from decades past has slowed, the need to inspire faith in free markets has never been more urgent.

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      THE STARTUP DEFICIT

      A recent YouGov poll revealed that nearly half of all millennials and gen-Xers hold an unfavorable view of capitalism. The same poll also found that more than 70 percent of millennials would, if given the opportunity, vote for a socialist candidate. According to a recent poll from Gallup, less than half of young Americans—45 percent—view capitalism positively. “This represents a 12-point decline in young adults’ positive views of capitalism in just the past two years and a marked shift since 2010, when 68 percent viewed it positively,” notes Gallup.

      This ideological shift comes at a perilous time. The world is in retreat from the failures of globalization, and, as resurgent nationalism takes hold in its place, cooperation between economies is morphing into fierce competition. For evidence of this, one need look no further than the recent fiery exchanges between the UK and the EU over Brexit terms. It is becoming clear that a nation’s economic strength, more so than military power, will determine standing in the world order. And America is no exception.

      Unfortunately, entrepreneurship and innovation have been steadily declining in the U.S. for years. We have fewer high-growth firms, especially in high-tech sectors, and those firms that do achieve high growth have been creating fewer jobs. According to economist Tyler Cowen, “These days Americans are less likely to switch jobs, less likely to move around the country, and, on a given day, less likely to go outside the house at all […] the economy is more ossified, more controlled, and growing at lower rates.”

      Regardless of how you assess it, all indicators point to a downward trend. Measured as the ratio of new firms to total firms, entrepreneurship in the U.S. declined by around 50% between 1978 and 2011. Meanwhile, people working for big firms (those employing more than 250 people) rose from 51% to 57% of the overall workforce, and the average firm size increased from 20 to 24 people over the same period. These are indicators that people have grown more risk-averse and are increasingly reluctant to trade off stability to start something new—something called the startup deficit.

      Several measures also indicate that entrepreneurs are less innovative. The ratio of patents to GDP in the US is declining, and the cost of patenting is increasing. The age of inventors, and when they registered their first patent, are on the rise— signaling an increasing barrier to entry for the young and cash-strapped. Plus, as economist Nicholas Bloom and his co-authors have found, “research productivity for the aggregate US economy has declined by a factor of 41 since the 1930s, an average decrease of more than 5% per year.”

      It’s easy not to focus on these metrics when we’ve recently been showered with positive news about the economy. But the startup deficit means lower productivity, and less wealth creation over the long term. This is a trajectory that is certain to see us displaced from atop the world’s leader-board.

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      TRADING IN AMERICA’S ECONOMIC FUTURE … FOR VOTES

      As far as policies are concerned, the solutions are reasonably straightforward: break up monopolies, improve competition, allow markets to work better, and (perhaps most importantly), incentivize the young and ambitious to take risks, lots of them. As financier and author Nicholas Nassim Taleb notes: “the reason free markets work is because they allow people to be lucky, thanks to aggressive trial and error.”

      That trial and error is the backbone to a healthy and growing economy. Entrepreneurs discover unmet needs in society and fill them with new goods or services. They take risks without certainty of reward. They improve on existing technologies and invent whole new ones—the iPhone AOC uses to vilify billionaires on Twitter among them. And in difficult economic times, entrepreneurs help create new jobs and find unique ways to provide society with the goods and services they desire.

      Policy can only take us so far. This is why we also need a shift at the level of political rhetoric.

      At a time when we should be relentlessly focused on stimulating business creation, our would-be future innovators are learning that to be a successful entrepreneur is akin to being a modern-day slave driver. They learn that to take the risk to start a business, or to pursue material wealth, is to start down a road that inevitably leads to a life of immorality.

      We’re in desperate need of a different dialogue. As Warren A. Stephens notes:

      “By virtue of living in the United States, we are all capitalists … I hope for a day when young people no longer reject that concept but revel in it. As a country, we need to reclaim our pride in capitalism and remember that the markets have the greatest power when they are free, and that free markets empower one and all, not just the few and the select.”

      Leaders and politicians have a choice: continue to denigrate examples of financial and entrepreneurial success for short term political gain—or leverage them as powerful tools for inspiration. America’s economic potential hangs in the balance.


      Tyler Durden

      Wed, 03/11/2020 – 23:45

    • US Issues Global Level 3 Health Advisory: Reconsider Travel Abroad
      US Issues Global Level 3 Health Advisory: Reconsider Travel Abroad

      Following President Trump’s decision to ban all travel from Europe to the US for 30 days, The State Department has issued a Level 3 Global Health Advisory, urging Americans to reconsider travel abroad:

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      Global Level 3 Health Advisory – Reconsider Travel

      The Department of State advises U.S. citizens to reconsider travel abroad due to the global impact of COVID-19.  

      Many areas throughout the world are now experiencing COVID-19 outbreaks and taking action that may limit traveler mobility, including quarantines and border restrictions. 

      Even countries, jurisdictions, or areas where cases have not been reported may restrict travel without notice.

      For the latest information regarding COVID-19, please visit the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) website.

      *  *  *

      This is one step away from an official travel ban.

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      This is escalating very quickly.


      Tyler Durden

      Wed, 03/11/2020 – 23:26

    • 22 Year Old FX Trader Pleads Guilty To Fraud He Started While In His Teens
      22 Year Old FX Trader Pleads Guilty To Fraud He Started While In His Teens

      22 year old FX trader Kevin Perry has pleaded guilty to defrauding his investors in an FX scam that started when he was just a teenager.

      A release from the U.S. Attorney’s Office in the Northern District of Georgia on Friday said that “Perry led investors to believe that his investment company, Lucrative Pips, was successfully earning substantial profits by investing in the foreign currency (or “forex”) market.”

      He told investors’ that their initial investments were secure from loss, but his company was never even registered as a commodity pool operator with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the Department of Justice said in their complaint. 

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      He falsified historical returns that he represented to investors while turning around and using investor cash to enrich himself or pay off his other investors. He also falsely promised an undercover agent that an investment of $10,000 would return a profit of $19,000 to $25,000 per month.

      U.S. Attorney Byung J. Pak said: “Clients that invested with Perry’s company were assured they were secure from loss. Actually, Perry was enriching himself and paying off other investors.  We encourage citizens to be cautious with investments, and to remember that if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.”

      Chris Hacker, Special Agent in Charge of FBI Atlanta said: “This guilty plea will be little solace to the victims who lost their savings because of Perry’s personal greed. The FBI is determined to root out and prosecute anyone who undermines investor confidence at the expense of innocent victims.” 

       


      Tyler Durden

      Wed, 03/11/2020 – 23:25

    • Banking Crisis Imminent? Companies Scramble To Draw Down Revolvers
      Banking Crisis Imminent? Companies Scramble To Draw Down Revolvers

      Earlier today, we reported that Boeing shocked the investing community when it announced that due to “market turmoil”, it would immediately draw down on its full $13.825 revolving credit facility, an unprecedented move for a company Boeing’s size and valuation, and one which was some took as an indication of how frail Boeing’s liquidity state was, ostensibly confirmed by Boeing’s surging default odds measured by its 5Y CDS.

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      We disagreed: after all, why would Boeing rush to draw attention to its own funding challenges by fully drawing on its revolver when it knew full well that it had access to the money, safe and sound, located at its syndicate banks…  unless of course Boeing was in fact worried about the viability of said banks. AS a result, we said that the real reason Boeing did what it did was simple, especially to those who recall what happened in 2008 all too well: Boeing is worried that banks will pull their committed funding, which in turn means that Boeing appears to be worried that a 2008-style financial crisis is imminent, and is shoring up all the liquidity it can, so as not to remain at the mercy of its banks which may refuse to extend it credit at any one moment if their own liquidity is threatened.

      Which is why we also concluded that now that Boeing, “one of America’s most valuable companies, has shown which way the wind blows, expect thousands of less creditworthy companies to follow suit as they scramble to cash in on every dollar in available revolver funding before the banks pull it.“

      We had to wait just a few hours for this prediction to come true, because later on Wednesday, Bloomberg reported that two of the world’s biggest PE firms, Blackstone and Carlyle, have told their portfolio companies to immediately do what Boeing did earlier in the day: “Do whatever it takes to stave off a credit crunch”, which as in the case of Boeing, is a polite way of saying: your banks may pull their liquidity (i.e., fail), so get whatever cash you can now when you can, and not when you have to.

      According to the report, the dozens if not hundreds of businesses – all smaller than Boeing of course – controlled by the PE titans are joining a growing wave of corporations drawing down bank credit lines to help prevent any liquidity shortfalls amid signs of mounting stress in markets. At Blackstone, which has weathered a variety of crises in its 35 years, the focus is on sectors hurt by the coronavirus, such as the hospitality industry, as well as energy firms facing a slump in oil prices.

      At Carlyle the measures aren’t quite as widespread yet, although the firm has been having broad discussions with management teams at portfolio companies and recommended drawing credit lines in certain instances, with the “decisions are based on industries, regions and other factors.”

      Beside Boeing, Blackstone and Carlyle, other companies which announced plans to drawdown on their full revolver were Hilton Worldwide and Wynn Resorts, all reflecting the uncertainty coursing through corporate America as the US economy hurtles into recession.

      Think of it, as companies lining up at their favorite ATM machine to pull all the money that is in the account. It works until suddenly it doesn’t.

      And here is Bloomberg confirming, through clenched teeth, what we said earlier: “A sudden and sustained increase in companies tapping credit lines could eventually strain banks if conditions become so dire that borrowers won’t be able to meet their obligations.“

      See, it’s not market conditions, but a loss of faith in the banking sector, and the reason why it was so difficult for Bloomberg to admit it is that while toilet paper runs do not lead to a collapse of the financial system, fiat paper runs to, and all that would take for those to begin is a loss of faith in the US banking system…. just like that exhibited by Boeing and some of the smartest financial professionals in the world.

      The big irony of course, is that by pulling down on revolvers en masse, US companies can trigger just the liquidity crunch they are seeking to protect themselves again, because as we noted earlier, liquidity in the US financial sector is already dismal and getting worse with every passing day, hence today’s latest expansion to the Fed’s repo cailities among a surging FRA/OIS spread.

       

      As Bloomberg explains, “lenders offer revolving credit lines to strengthen relationships with companies and don’t typically intend for them to be drawn upon en masse.”

      In normal times, revolvers serve as the corporate equivalent of credit cards, giving companies room to borrow as needed and repay when shortfalls ease. Under normal circumstances, the lines are seldom maxed out. Extensive use can be seen as a harbinger of distress.”

      The fact that everyone is drawing down on their revolver, however, shows three things:

      1. these are not normal circumstances
      2. the US financial situation is on the verge of distress, and
      3. they remember what happened in 2008, when one bank after another collapsed the availability on their revolver to troubled companies and sectors, and this time it will be the banks left with holding the short stick.

      That said, oil and natural gas companies are under particular focus as they tend to suffer a spike in funding stress when prices fall, because their credit lines are periodically updated based on market prices, motivating companies to tap them early.

      But why Boeing? The company’s cash flow is one of the most stable in the world… except of course when a global viral pandemic and its ongoing 737 MAX fiasco has sent its cash flow plunging to the most negative levels in decades.

      Meanwhile, Blackstone’s private equity operation is the firm’s largest business by assets, at $183 billion, of which energy accounts for almost 10% of the total portfolio.

      Blackstone won’t be the last as rival private equity firms – many of which have purchased shale companies in recent years funded with staggering levels of junk debt – also are weighing similar actions.

      “From an economic perspective, the virus has created dislocation in the market and fear among the people,” Blackstone co-founder Stephen Schwarzman said in an interview in Mumbai last week. “Once that starts, one has to find the impact of negative consequences. But the turbulence can also have an upside for firms with a war chest, he said.

      “It creates a substantial opportunity to buy assets and give credit.” Or, in the case of Blackstone’s portfolio companies, to take it.


      Tyler Durden

      Wed, 03/11/2020 – 22:57

    • 9 Years Later – How Fukushima Changed Japan's Energy Mix
      9 Years Later – How Fukushima Changed Japan’s Energy Mix

      The March 11, 2011, Fukushima nuclear incident in Japan made international headlines for months, but it also changed Japanese attitudes towards nuclear energy. As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz notes, after a devastating tsunami hit Japan on March 11, 2011, emergency generators cooling the Fukushima nuclear power plant gave out and caused a total of three nuclear meltdowns, explosions and the release of radioactive material into the surrounding areas.

      Before the incident, the Japanese had been known as steadfast supporters of nuclear energy, taking previous nuclear catastrophes at Three Mile Island (USA) or Chernobyl (Ukraine) in stride. But a meltdown on their own soil changed the minds of many citizens and kicked the anti-nuclear power movement into gear.

      After mass protests, the Japanese government under then Prime Minister Yoshihiko announced plans to make Japan nuclear free by 2030 and not to rebuild any of the damaged reactors. New Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has since tried to change the nation’s mind about nuclear energy by highlighting that the technology is indeed carbon neutral and well suited to reach emission goals.

      Infographic: How Fukushima Changed Japan's Energy Mix | Statista

      You will find more infographics at Statista

      Despite one reactor restart at Sendai power plant in Southern Japan in 2015, nuclear energy has almost vanished from Japanese electricity generation. In 2018 (latest available), only 6 percent of energy generated in Japan came from nuclear power plants. Coal and natural gas picked up most of the slack, but renewable sources, mainly solar energy, also grew after 2011.


      Tyler Durden

      Wed, 03/11/2020 – 22:45

    • US Prosecutors Seeking Legal "Options" Against Epstein "Co-Conspirator" Prince Andrew
      US Prosecutors Seeking Legal “Options” Against Epstein “Co-Conspirator” Prince Andrew

      Authored by John Vibes via TheMindUnleashed.com,

      The FBI has spent months trying to get an interview with Prince Andrew about his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein, but investigators have had no luck getting him to speak on the record about the case.

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      New York prosecutors told the press this week that the prince has “completely shut the door” on cooperating with authorities. They are now considering what further legal action can be taken.

      Andrew continues to deny any wrongdoing or knowledge of Epstein’s many crimes, despite a growing body of evidence indicating that he was involved.

      Manhattan Attorney Geoffrey Berman described the prince as a “co-conspirator.”

      “Contrary to Prince Andrew’s very public offer to cooperate with our investigation into Epstein’s co-conspirators, an offer that was conveyed via press release, Prince Andrew has now completely shut the door on voluntary cooperation and our office is considering its options,” Berman said, according to the Guardian.

      Andrew has previously promised to help investigators with the case, but has since removed himself from public life. He has also refused requests for interviews that investigators have sent him.

      When asked about the recent statement from New York prosecutors, a spokesperson for the palace told the Guardian, “The issue is being dealt with by the Duke of York’s legal team.”

      Virginia Giuffre, one of the many girls trafficked by Jeffrey Epstein, has become one of his most outspoken victims. She has also accused the prince of raping her while she was underage. Giuffre has appeared on dozens of interviews with broadcasters around the world to share her story.

      Andrew has made no public comments on the matter since promising to speak with investigators after his BBC interview where he made numerous claims that were later exposed as lies.

      Most notably, the prince claimed that he never met Giuffre or even heard the name before. A leak of private emails where he mentioned Virginia Giuffre surfaced just days after the interview, proving his claims false.

      During his BBC interview, Prince Andrew claimed that he was at a Pizza Express in Woking on the night Giuffre says he raped her after the pair visited a nightclub together. However, eyewitnesses have now come forward to support Giuffre’s claims about being at the club with him on the evening in question.

      Andrew was also found in the flight logs of Epstein’s notorious private airplane, booked on flights that went to his property in the Virgin Islands, where the Attorney General for the territory has claimed that Epstein “held underage girls captive” as recently as 2018.


      Tyler Durden

      Wed, 03/11/2020 – 22:25

    • Trump Bans All Travel From Europe For 30 Days; Tom Hanks Infected; NBA Suspends Season: Live Updates
      Trump Bans All Travel From Europe For 30 Days; Tom Hanks Infected; NBA Suspends Season: Live Updates

      Summary:

      • WHO declares Covid-19 is a pandemic
      • President Trump declares a travel ban from all European countries (not UK)
      • Tom Hanks, wife announce they have the Coronavirus
      • NBA suspends all games until further notice
      • Utah Jazz player Rudy Gobert has tested positive for coronavirus.
      • LA confirms first death
      • Seattle schools close for two weeks
      • Italy closes stores
      • MGM says guest at Vegas’s ‘The Mirage’ tested positive
      • Denmark closes schools, will send ‘non-critical’ public employees home to work
      • New Jersey case total climbs to 23
      • Juve player Daniele Rugani
      • DC Mayor declares public health emergency
      • Congressional doctor says up to
      • Cuomo confirms 39 new cases in NY, raising total to 212
      • First death in Indonesia
      • Confirmed cases in France top 2,000
      • Washington State to ban events over 200
      • Details of cruiseline industry’s ‘health and safety proposal’ leak
      • ‘Waffle House’ employee in Atlanta confirmed
      • UK reports 7th death
      • Chicago cancels St. Paddy’s Day parade
      • NY sends in National Guard
      • IADB cancels meeting in Colombia as virus spreads across Latin America
      • Mnuchin says first part of virus stimulus plan will be ready in 2 days
      • Utah reportedly planning to shut public college and university campuses
      • Dr. Fauci warns virus 10x more deadly than flu and could infect millions if not handled early
      • Australia passes A$18 billion stimulus package
      • Seoul says 99 cases tied to call center
      • FEMA evacuates Atlanta office over coronavirus scare
      • 3 Boeing workers test positie
      • Washington DC advises cancellation or postponement of all gatherings with more than 1,000 people
      • Harvard to prorate room and board for students
      • US cases surpass 1,000
      • UK Health Minister catches virus
      • Ireland, Bulgaria, Sweden report first deaths
      • Connecticut declares state of emergency
      • UK total hits 456 following largest daily jump on record (83 new cases)
      • Global cases pass 120,000
      • South Korea reports new outbreak in call center
      • Japan reportedly planning to declare state of emergency

      *  *  *

      Update (2130ET): Tom Hanks and his wife, Rita Wilson, have tested positive for the coronavirus during a trip to Australia, he said in a Wednesday Instagram post.

      Hello, folks. Rita and I are down here in Australia. We felt a bit tired, like we had colds, and some body aches. Rita had some chills that came and went. Slight fevers too. To play things right, as is needed in the world right now, we were tested for the Coronavirus, and were found to be positive.

      Well, now. What to do next? The Medical Officials have protocols that must be followed. We Hanks’ will be tested, observed, and isolated for as long as public health and safety requires. Not much more to it than a one-day-at-a-time approach, no?

      We’ll keep the world posted and updated.

      Take care of yourselves!
      Hanx!

      In separate news, Utah Jazz All-Star Rudy Gobert tested positive for coronavirus; “sources say Gobert is feeling good, strong and stable — and was feeling strong enough to play tonight.” The NBA’s reaction was instant: the game Gobert was playing in was canceled, and both the Jazz and the Oklahoma City Thunder teams and lockerrooms are currently quarantined. Nobody has left Chesapeake Arena.

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      Moments later the NBA announced it would suspend the season until further notice.

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      * * *

      Update (2110ET): President Trump has ordered a complete travel ban from European nations for the next 30 days (beginning at midnight on Friday). The ban does not include the United Kingdom. Speaking from the Oval Office, Trump called the coronavirus a “horrible infection” and said he was addressing the nation to talk about the “unprecedented response to the coronavirus outbreak.”

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      While Trump initially announced that the ban would also include “trade and cargo”, a subsequent clarification from the White House, perhaps upon seeing the market’s reaction, made it clear that Trump misspoke, and the ban does not apply to goods and trade.

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      Additionally, Trump laid out his plans for taking emergency action to provide relief for those suffering financial hardship due to the virus.

      The President also said health insurance companies had agreed to waive all co-payments for coronavirus treatments and extend insurance coverage to cover coronavirus treatments.

      *  *  *

      Update (1950ET): As states around the country mull whether to follow Washington and shutter their schools, we’ve received a reader tip claiming that Utah Gov Gary Herbert will announce on Thursday at 9 am MT that the state is shutting down all its public campuses of higher education. A press release will follow. The official date and duration is not know at this time.

      Again, that’s according to an as-yet-unconfirmed tip, so treat it accordingly.

      Of course, if this is accurate, that’s just another ~20,000 college kids about to go on an extended, cut-rate spring break.

      *  *  *

      Update (1937ET): Seoul has just confirmed that 99 cases have now been tied to an outbreak at a call center in Seoul’s Guro district, one of the busiest and most crowded parts of town. Low paid workers commuting from far away helped pass the infection along their route, creating another outbreak just as South Korea was getting the outbreak in the city of Daegu under contol.

      Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon made the announcement early Thursday in Seoul. It’s unclear whether these constitute new, or already counted cases.

      Australia just announced a A$17.7 billion stimulus package to bolster its economy against the fallout from the virus, joining what’s becoming a growing list of developed countries that have acted more quickly than the White House to address that aspect of the crisis.

      To be sure, the Trump administration deserves credit for swiftly working out a compromise with Democrats to pass an $8.3 billion spending package that increases funding for the CDC, FDA and the other agencies within DHHS, dole out money to the states, buy vaccines when they’re available and $1.25 billion for “international activities.”

      *  *  *

      Update (1820ET): Juventus, a football club based in Turin, a city in Piedmont situated just outside Italy’s initial exclusion zone, just confirmed that center-back Daniele Rugani has tested positive for the coronavirus, though it’s not yet clear who.

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

      This is the first time a Serie A football club has confirmed that one of its top players has been infected.

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      And suddenly, it seems clear that Italian soccer’s plan to ban fans at league contests is truly inadequate.

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

      Immediately, most fans thoughts probably turned to Cristiano Ronaldo, the club’s star player.

      Earlier in the US, Texas reported that a toddler was among its latest batch of confirmed cases for Covid-19. Another characteristic that differentiates Covid-19 from the flu is that young children are also at risk.

      *   *  *

      Update (1650ET): Italy has confirmed that it will order all stores in the country that sell items other than medicine and food to close. Factories can continue working, but all restaurants and bars must close as well. The prime minister stressed that there is “no need for a run on supermarkets.”

      Watch Conte’s address live:

      *  *  *

      Update (1635ET): NJ Governor and former Goldmanite Phil Murphy just announced 8 more cases in the state, bringing its total to 23. The state has also confirmed its first case of “community spread”.

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      Watch the rest of the press conference below courtesy of 10 Philly:

      https://nbcphiladelphia.com/portableplayer/?CID=1:12:2322701&videoID=1709781059679&origin=nbcphiladelphia.com&fullWidth=y

       

      https://nbcphiladelphia.com/portableplayer/?CID=1:12:2322701&videoID=1709781059679&origin=nbcphiladelphia.com&fullWidth=y

      In other news, the NCAA’s annual “March Madness” basketball tournament games in Ohio will be played in front of empty crowds, with only essential staff present and “limited family attendance,” NCAA President Mark Emmert said in a statement:

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

      Effectively cancelling dozens of live basketball games is just one ore huge blow to consumption at a very testy time. Though we suspect millions will still tune in from home.

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

      Sports games are being cancelled around the globe: Italian soccer made a similar determination earlier.

      *  *  *

      Update (1625ET): Washington DC Mayor Muriel Bowser has declared a public health emergency in order to access emergency funds to help her city combat the crisis.

      Watch the rest of today’s live update below:

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

      *  *  *

      Update (1535ET): MGM Resorts said a female guest at the Mirage, one of its Las Vegas casinos, has tested positive for the coronavirus. The woman, who visited the city for an event featuring many bold-faced names recently, is from New York. The news comes after the company announced plans to shut down its buffets at seven of its resorts in Las Vegas.

      The company said it’s tracing contacts that the patient might have had, and is in the process of doing a “deep clean” of the room.

      *  *  *

      Update (1522ET): LA County health officials announced on Wednesday that one of their patients had succumbed to the virus, marking the second death in California from the virus and the first in LA County, a local TV station reports. They also announced another 6 confirmed cases, bringing the county total to 27.

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      County health officials announced the unfortunate news during a press update:

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      The victim was a woman over the age of 60 who died after contracting the virus, according to County Health Director Dr. Barbara Ferrer. The woman, who has not been publicly identified, was visiting Los Angeles County and had underlying health conditions.

      As one observer noted about Ferrer during the press conference…

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      Meanwhile, the CDC’s Dr. Nancy Messonnier is delivering her daily update:

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      In a first for major cities, the Seattle Times just reported that all Seattle schools will close on Friday for “a minimum of two weeks” to thwart the virus’s spread. The reporters cited a copy of an email sent to school administrators.

      The decision was reportedly made after “conferring” with county and school officials. Inslee earlier urged all schools in the state to prepare for having students finish their studies for the year online.

      On Wednesday, two schools in Seattle were already closed due to virus exposure fears.

      The email instructs principals to treat the closure as if they were going on spring break, and lists some guidance for going forward.

      “We know you do not have time to do everything and we trust that you will do your best given the circumstances,” the email said.

      The announcement comes after the district’s early move to stay open in an effort to make sure children don’t suddenly see a loss in services.

      NY Gov. Cuomo said earlier that the state would do everything it could to avoid shutting NYC schools (NYC schools rarely close, due to the fact that many students who are on subsidized lunch wouldn’t eat without school).

      Further north in Denmark, officials announced that all schools and universities in the country would be closed until further notice.

      And additionally, one twitter user just tallied up a breakdown of all the cases confirmed in Italy:

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

      *  *  *

      Update (1445ET): The UK has just reported its 7th death, another elderly patient, according to media reports.

      In other news, the House Oversight Committee meeting where Dr. Fauci and Dr. Redfield were answering questions won’t resume until tomorrow.

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      *  *  *

      Update (1430ET): France has just announced roughly 500 new coronavirus infections, and more than a dozen more deaths, bringing the total above 2,000.

      • FRANCE CONFIRMS 2281 CORONAVIRUS CASES, 48 DEATHS AS OF WED.

      *  *  *

      Update (1410ET): During his Wednesday press conference, Cuomo confirmed that the state had succeeded in contracting with 28 private labs to speed up coronavirus tests. He also confirmed 39 new cases in NY, bringing the state total to 212, adding that “numbers will continue to go up dramatically.”

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      Meanwhile, CNBC’s Eamon Javers reported that President Trump is considering an emergency declaration for all of the US under the “Stafford Act”, which would open up more federal money via FEMA

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      This would put FEMA “fully in the fight” against the virus.

      In other news, just a few days after confirming that it had reopened nearly all of its stores on mainland China, Apple said Wednesday that all stores in Italy would be closed “until further notice.”

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      Boeing employees saw more bad news on Wednesday as the troubled aerospace maker said Wednesday that it would halt hiring until further notice.

      Meanwhile, in Senegal, officials reported their 5th case of the virus as it continues its creep across Latin America and Africa.

      *  *  *

      Update (1350ET): As we previewed earlier, Washington State Gov. Jay Inslee has announced plans to ban gatherings with 250 people or more in the counties worst affected by the virus in his state, CNBC reports. The counties include: King, Snohomish and Pierce.

      In addition, he’s asking all school districts to prepare for online instruction, and closures that might last “longer than initially thought”.

      Just minutes after Inslee’s announcement, San Francisco health officials announced they would ban public and private events with 1,000 people or more to slow the spread of the new coronavirus there.

      “We know that this order is disruptive, but it is an important step to support public health,” San Francisco Mayor London Breed said in a statement. “We know cancelling these events is a challenge for everyone and we’ve been talking with venues and event organizers about the need to protect public health.” She said she spoke with the Warriors NBA team and “they are in support of our efforts.”

      Washington State is the hardest-hit in the country, with more than 267 confirmed cases across the state with 258 of those concentrated between the three counties, according to the state health commission.

      Even more alarming: Seattle-area officials announced late Tuesday that residents or employees of 10 long-term care facilities have been infected.

      Last month, Inslee declared a state of emergency to free up funding for communities combating the outbreak.

      *  *  *

      Update (1330ET): Politico reports that President Trump is looking into making an Oval Office address, presumably to share the details from his stimulus “plan”.

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      Meanwhile, USAToday has published the details from a proposal delivered to the White House about how they can update health and safety measures to stop employees from getting infected. Stocks dropped on news of the details from the plan, which hadn’t been previously disclosed since the industry delivered the proposal to the White House after a meeting yesterday.

      • CRUISE LINE INDUSTRY PROPOSES PLAN TO WHITE HOUSE THAT WOULD BAR PEOPLE AGE 70 AND OLDER FROM BOARDING SHIPS WITHOUT A DOCTOR’S NOTE

      The proposal reportedly includes barring entry to anyone over the age of 70, or with an underlying condition, unless a doctor’s note is supplied.

      *  *  *

      Update (1315ET): One day after recording its largest increase in deaths on record, Italy has reported yet another 30%+ increase in deaths, bringing its death toll to 827 from 631. They also reported a record-breaking 2,000+ new cases on Wednesday.

      • ITALY DEATH TOLL FROM CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK RISES TO 827 FROM 631 ON TUESDAY – OFFICIAL
      • ITALY CORONAVIRUS DEATHS JUMP 31% TO 827
      • TOTAL NUMBER OF CONFIRMED CASES OF CORONAVIRUS IN ITALY RISES TO 12,462 FROM 10,149 ON TUESDAY – OFFICIAL

      Though the jump in deaths reported yesterday (168) was larger in terms of percentage (36% vs. 31%), today’s increase is larger by the numbers.

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

      In other news, Norway bans indoor events with more than 500 people. Russia earlier said it would ban most flights between Russia and Italy, Germany, Spain and France. Meanwhile, Washington State has confirmed plans to ban large events.

      *  *  *

      Update (1350ET): Follow the WHO’s major admission just a few minutes ago, which took the air out of a modest market rally as stocks moved off their session lows, we suspect that Wednesday will be remembered as a critical day in the development of the outbreak outside Asia.

      We’ve heard no shortage of alarming predictions today – remember earlier when Merkel said up to 70% of Germans might catch the virus, or Dr. Fauci’s warning that “millions” of Americans could contract it if the US doesn’t act quickly – and Axios has just brought us one more: It reports, citing two sources briefing on the meeting, that Congress’ in-house doctor told Capitol Hill staffers at a close-door meeting this week that he expects 75-150 million people in the US,  roughly one-third of the country, to contract the coronavirus.

      And here’s Axios telling us “why it matters”:

      Why it matters: That estimate, which is in line with other projections from health experts, underscores the potential seriousness of this outbreak even as the White House has been downplaying its severity in an attempt to keep public panic at bay.

      Dr. Brian Monahan, the attending physician of the U.S. Congress, told Senate chiefs of staff, staff directors, administrative managers and chief clerks from both parties on Tuesday that they should prepare for the worst, and offered advice on how to remain healthy.

      He added that 80% of people who contract the virus will ultimately be fine.

      As Axios also reminds us, statistical modeling from Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch, have said that somewhere between 20% and 60% of adults worldwide might catch the virus.

      During an interview with CNBC following the declaration from the WHO,

      “The epidemic is always further ahead than what you perceive at the moment,” Dr. Scott Gottlieb said.

      It’s possible that we have thousands of cases here possibly tens of thousands,” Dr. Gottlieb said.

      In other news, Reuters reports that the White House is weighing travel bans against Italians and other Europeans.

      *  *  *

      Update (1230ET): With WHO’s major funding partner China perhaps having turned the corner, WHO Chief Tedros has finally decided to declare Covid-19 a Pandemic…

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      Full Tedros Transcript:

      In the past two weeks, the number of cases of #COVID19 outside 🇨🇳 has increased 13-fold & the number of affected countries has tripled.

      There are now more than 118,000 cases in 114 countries, & 4,291 people have lost their lives.

      Thousands more are fighting for their lives in hospitals.

      In the days and weeks ahead, we expect to see the number of #COVID19 cases, the number of deaths, and the number of affected countries climb even higher

      WHO has been assessing this outbreak around the clock and we are deeply concerned both by the alarming levels of spread and severity, and by the alarming levels of inaction

      We have therefore made the assessment that #COVID19 can be characterized as a pandemic

      Pandemic is not a word to use lightly or carelessly. It is a word that, if misused, can cause unreasonable fear, or unjustified acceptance that the fight is over, leading to unnecessary suffering and death

      Describing the situation as a pandemic does not change WHO’s assessment of the threat posed by this coronavirus. It doesn’t change what WHO is doing, and it doesn’t change what countries should do”

      We have never before seen a pandemic sparked by a coronavirus. And we have never before seen a pandemic that can be controlled at the same time.

      WHO has been in full response mode since we were notified of the first cases.

      We have called every day for countries to take urgent and aggressive action.

      We have rung the alarm bell loud and clear

      As I said on Monday, just looking at the number of COVID19 cases and the number of countries affected does not tell the full story

      Of the 118,000 COVID19 cases reported globally in 114 countries, more than 90 percent of cases are in just four countries, and two of those have significantly declining epidemics

      81 countries have not reported any COVID19 cases, and 57 countries have reported 10 cases or less.

       

      We cannot say this loudly enough, or clearly enough, or often enough: all countries can still change the course of this pandemic”

      If countries detect, test, treat, isolate, trace, and mobilize their people in the response, those with a handful of COVID19 cases can prevent those cases becoming clusters, and those clusters becoming community transmission

      Even those countries with community transmission or large clusters can turn the tide on this coronavirus.

      Several countries have demonstrated that this virus can be suppressed and controlled.

      The challenge for many countries who are now dealing with large COVID19 clusters or community transmission is not whether they can do the same – it’s whether they will.

      Some countries are struggling with a lack of capacity. Some countries are struggling with a lack of resources. Some countries are struggling with a lack of resolve.

      We are grateful for the measures being taken in Iran, Italy and South Korea to slow the virus and control their COVID19 epidemics.

      We know that these measures are taking a heavy toll on societies and economies, just as they did in China.

      All countries must strike a fine balance between protecting health, minimizing economic & social disruption & respecting human rights

      WHO’s mandate is public health. But we’re working with many partners across all sectors to mitigate the social and economic consequences of this COVID19 pandemic

      This is not just a public health crisis, it is a crisis that will touch every sector – so every sector and every individual must be involved in the fight

      I have said from the beginning that countries must take a whole-of-government, whole-of-society approach, built around a comprehensive strategy to prevent infections, save lives and minimize impact

      Let me summarize it in 4 key areas.

      1. Prepare and be ready.

      2. Detect, protect and treat.

      3. Reduce transmission.

      4. Innovate and learn”

      I remind all countries that we are calling on you to (1):

      • activate & scale up your emergency response mechanisms

      • communicate with your people about the risks & how they can protect themselves

      • find, isolate, test & treat every #COVID19 case & trace every contact”

      I remind all countries that we are calling on you to (2):

      • ready your hospitals

      • protect and train your #healthworkers

      • let’s all look out for each other”

      There’s been so much attention on one word.

      Let me give you some other words that matter much more, & that are much more actionable:

      Prevention. Preparedness. Public health. Political leadership.

      And most of all, People”

      “We’re in this together, to do the right things with calm and protect the citizens of the world. It’s doable”

      And just like that – $425 million dollars worth of pandemic bonds all got trggered.

      *  *  *

      Update (1220ET): Three Boeing workers have tested positive for the virus, the company said. Though Boeing offered few details, we suspect the employees are probably based in Washington State, where Boeing builds its planes.

      In Washington DC, authorities are recommending the cancellation or postponement of all “non-essential” gatherings over 1,000.

      As students leave campuses around the country either heading back home or hunkering down finish their classes on line, Harvard just announced that it would “pro-rate” students’ room and board.

      *  *  *

      Update (1220ET): With the committee in charge of the Tokyo Olympic Games reportedly planning to suggest that the games be delayed, more images of the coronavirus fears’ impact on international travel are circulating online. Check out this.

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      *  *  *

      Update (1200ET): The CDC has released its latest batch of “confirmed” US figures: 29 deaths, 987 cases and cases confirmed in 39 states as of 10 pm last night.

      • U.S. CDC – 39 STATES HAVE REPORTED CASES AS OF MARCH 10 AT 4 PM ET VS PREVIOUS REPORT OF 36 STATES
      • U.S. CDC – 29 TOTAL DEATHS DUE TO NEW CORONAVIRUS AS OF MARCH 10 AT 4 PM ET VS 25 DEATHS AS OF PREVIOUS REPORT
      • U.S. CDC REPORTS ITS COUNT OF 987 CASES OF NEW CORONAVIRUS AS OF MARCH 10 AT 4 PM ET, VS PREVIOUS REPORT OF 696 CASES

      Around the world, the virus has produced many “isn’t it ironic?” moments, and we just got another in the US when FEMA announced that it would close its Atlanta office after an employee was exposed to the virus.

      • FEMA ATLANTA OFFICE CLOSED AFTER EMPLOYEE EXPOSED TO VIRUS

      Over in the UK, a total of 456 people have tested positive for coronavirus in the UK as of 9am on Wednesday, up from 373 at the same point on Tuesday, the Department of Health said. The jump of 83 new cases is the largest daily jump yet, following the previous ‘largest daily increase’ by only a few days.

      Six have died in the UK and tested positive for the virus. Over in Ireland, authorities reported their first death on Wednesday. A 66-year-old Bulgarian woman also succumbed to the virus in the Balkan state, marking the first death there as well.

      After the UK Health Minister Nadine Dorries tested positive for the virus, and started showing symptoms on Thursday, the same day she attended an event with the prime minister. Though the UK has elected to keep parliament open, Dorries and a Labour lawmaker who may have been exposed via a meeting with Dorries have decided to self-quarantine.

      UK Chief Medical Officer Catherine Calderwood stressed that “we are still in the containment phase” despite an increased number of Covid-19 cases.

      She said: “We have identified the first case of community transmission in Scotland which is unrelated to contact or travel. This was identified through our enhanced surveillance scheme.

      Sweden has reported its first death from the coronavirus today, with a hospital in Stockholm saying an elderly patient had died in intensive care. Belgium has reported its first three deaths, with 314 cases of coronavirus. Ivory Coast has confirmed its first case of coronavirus, a 45-year-old Ivorian man who had recently travelled to Italy, the health ministry said in a statement. Denmark confirmed a batch of new cases, raising its total to 442.

      While Washington State is apparently planning to ban all events with over 250 people, Washington DC has advised citizens to avoid such gatherings.

      Last night, Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont declares a state of emergency, joining a growing list of other states to do the same.

      *  *  *

      Update (1150ET): Rencap’s Charlie Robertson points out that it took 5 days since the first indication of human-to-human transmission happening at a wide scale in the US, and if our numbers track Germany’s, we should have 3,000 cases confirmed by Friday, and 6,000 by Monday.

      Though that rate could double if many new clusters are discovered.

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      *  *  *

      Update (1100ET): With another day of non-stop breaking news headlines about the outbreak as it spreads across the US, Europe and Latin America, we’ve been having troubled keeping up.

      Switzerland reported 148 new cases of coronavirus on Wednesday, with 645 cases in total, 58 cases in Zürich and 78 cases in Geneva.

      Indonesia, an Asian nation that didn’t report its first case until more than a month after the global outbreak began reported its first death linked to the virus on Wednesday as well.

      National Guard troops have been deployed to a Health Department command post in New Rochelle. Chicago has followed San Francisco and cancelled its St. Patrick’s Day Parade. In NYC, schools will not close, but parent-teacher conferences will be held via phone.

      An employee at a ‘Waffle House’ in Metro Atlanta (Cherokee County) has tested positive for the virus, raising fears about a mass outbreak in Georgia. The store has been closed and 12 employees are quarantining and will continue for a few more days.

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      The Inter-American Development Bank postponed its annual meeting in Colombia, which had been scheduled for next week, over coronavirus fears as the virus spreads across Latin America. The Washington-based bank, the top development institution dedicated to Latin America and the Caribbean, announced the decision with Colombian President Ivan Duque on Tuesday evening.

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      With transports and financials leading equities lower on Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, who testified to Congress on Wednesday tried to offer some reassuring details about the White House plan, which remains very much in the ‘brainstorm’ phase. Still, Mnuchin insisted that Trump is standing by the payroll tax holiday to put more money in the hands of workers. The Treasury is also hoping to delay tax payments and leave $200 billion of “temporary liquidity” in the hands of Americans.

      Mnuchin said the White House hopes to strike a deal on the first part of the virus stimulus plan within the next 48 hours. His testimony follows rumors about the administration offering a potential ‘bailout’ to the American shale energy industry. Other stimulus actions will take “a week or two” he added.

      Importantly, the Treasury Secretary also insisted that no market interventions are being planned (so no PPT?). 

      In remarks on Tuesday, CDC Director Robert Redfield said that America had lost valuable time tracking the virus; some regions now can merely try to cope with its spread rather than stop it. And during testimony on Wednesday, Dr. Fauci said that when it comes to the outbreak in the US, “the worst is yet to come” because the virus is “10x more lethal than the seasonal flu”.

      If the US doesn’t handle the virus outbreak correctly, “many, many millions of people” will get the virus, he said.

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      Remember to wash your hands, folks.

      *  *  *

      The global coronavirus outbreak has hit a new milestone: It surpassed 120,000 cases overnight. For anybody who’s still bothering to keep track, that’s 15x the number of cases from the SARS outbreak, which continued for nearly a year before it finally petered out.

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      In the US, the coronavirus outbreak has reached a grim new milestone. Thanks to the administration’s scramble to bring dozens of private and public labs on-line for testing across the country, the CDC has managed to confirm more than 1,000 cases of the virus. In the Westchester County town of New Rochelle, the epicenter of the outbreak in New York State, and the largest on the east coast, woke up to a 1-mile exclusion zone and national guard soldiers in the streets.

      The town now looks like a “ghost town” according to several reports.

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      As the number of cases topped 1,000, the number of deaths has also climbed: Officially, there are 31 deaths and 1,039 confirmed cases, according to the Washington Post, which is significantly more than the number confirmed by Dr. Anthony Fauci during last night’s press conference.

      Across the US, Washington State’s King County remains the epicenter of America’s worst outbreak, with 273 cases . New York is No. 2 with 176 (13 additional cases have just been announced). After hinting about ‘mandatory measures’ last night that set tongues wagging about the possibility of Italy-style travel restrictions, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee is reportedly planning to announce a plan to…ban all events with more than 250 people, according to MyNorthwest.

      At a press conference scheduled for Wednesday at 10:15 a.m., it is expected that Gov. Jay Inslee along with regional leaders and city mayors could announce a ban on large gatherings and events of 250 people or more in at least three counties. Any ban would affect upcoming sporting events in the area, including a home game for the XFL’s Seattle Dragons on Sunday.

      Inslee has been hinting at this for the past week as a possible preemptive move to curb the spread of coronavirus. Over the weekend, he stated that his office was considering enacting “mandatory measures” in the days ahead.

      Monday night on MSBNC, the Washington governor spoke to Rachel Maddow, admitting that soon, the state was “going to have to make some hard decisions.”

      He further elaborated on that point during a Tuesday press conference, when he cited the need to “look forward ahead of the curve in Washington state.”

      “We need to look at what is coming, not just what is here today,” he detailed, estimating that given limits on testing capacity, experts have told him there could be at least 1,000 untested coronavirus cases across the state.

      So much for ‘hard decisions’….

      This immense build up, only to announce restrictions that are only ‘slightly’ more comprehensive than the milquetoast event bans embraced by Germany, France, Switzerland and others, brings to mind a tweet we noticed earlier highlighting the sometimes unintended consequences that half-measures can create.

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      On the east coast, the State of New York is asking businesses to voluntarily consider having employees work two shifts as well as allowing telework, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said in an interview with CNN, the network that employs his brother, where he has been making near-daily appearances in addition to his daily press conferences.

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      Gov. Inslee

      “This is about reducing the density,” Cuomo said. “The spread is not going to stop on its own.”

      He also announced 20 new cases of virus, bringing total in state to about 193, with most of the new cases diagnosed in New Rochelle, where the virus has clearly been circulating for weeks.

      There have been reports that Democrats are pushing for a national emergency declaration which would trigger  tens of billions of dollars in funding from FEMA to help with the containment effort, and possibly to help grappled with the economic fallout from the outbreak.

      Despite a few notable screwups lately (including a collapsed ad hoc quarantine that left roughly one dozen dead and many trapped in the rubble for days, Beijing continues to insist that it is winning the war against the virus, and while the true scope of China’s outbreak might never be known for sure (some have estimated 1 million cases throughout China), officials did report a slight rise in cases on Wednesday which they blamed on ‘imports from abroad.’

      Officials reported 24 additional cases of coronavirus and 22 additional deaths on March 10, compared with 19 additional cases and 17 additional deaths on March 9, bringing the total number of cases in mainland China to 80,778 and death toll at 3,158. China’s Hubei province said it will mandate a return to work according to different levels of risk in an orderly manner, adding that key areas of the Wuhan economy will be allowed to return.

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      After 11 days of falling case numbers, South Korea reported 242 additional coronavirus cases early Wednesday, bringing its total to 7,555, and 6 additional deaths, increasing the death toll to 60, reversing a streak of declines that had convinced many that Korea’s outbreak had ended.

      The South has made remarkable progress in fighting the outbreak, however, a new mass infection incident has popped up that is jeopardizing the government’s widely praised response. Earlier, South Korean authorities told Reuters that they had tested hundreds of staff at a Seoul call center where the disease broke out this week. 13 of the infected workers at the Seoul call center used public transportation to commute, leading to at least 90 other people who had close contact with them being infected. Of the 90 cases mentioned earlier, 62 were in Seoul, and all were located near a public transportation hub connecting Seoul with Incheon and other major cities, via which the virus spread.

      The spread has even made it into the armed forces, raising new fears about an outbreak in tightly packed barracks.

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      Elsewhere, Japan is reportedly planning to declare a state of emergency due to the coronavirus outbreak after the number of domestic cases rose by the largest daily number yet, with 59 new cases bringing the total to 1,278, while the total death toll has climbed to 19 and there were 427 discharged from hospital on Tuesday.

      Italy’s total coronavirus cases rose to 10,149, from 9172, and the death toll increased to 631 yesterday from 463 in its largest daily jump yet.


      Tyler Durden

      Wed, 03/11/2020 – 22:10

    • Nasdaq Futures Limit-Down, Crude Crashes After Trump Announces EU Travel Ban
      Nasdaq Futures Limit-Down, Crude Crashes After Trump Announces EU Travel Ban

      Shortly after President Trump began his address to the nation, enacting a full travel ban from European nations for the next 30 days, the markets started to get upset.

      • S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow futures fall 4-4.5%

      • Both Brent and WTI futures down more than 6%

      • Nikkei 225 drops 4.5%, Australia’s benchmark slumped 5% to confirm bear market status

      • Main China stock indexes all fall at least 1%

      • Kospi, Hang Seng, Taiex slide 3% or more

      • Treasury 10-year yields decline 14 bps to 0.73%

      • AUD/USD falls 0.3%, EUR/USD jumps 0.4%

      • Malaysia, Korea, Philippine currencies all retreat 0.5%; Mexican peso tumbles more than 1%

      Dow futures are down over 1000 points…

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      Japan’s Nikkei 225 is down over 350 points…

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      Nasdaq futures are limit down…

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      S&P is close to its 2,601 limit down…

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      And for the cash open tomorrow:

      • 7% limit down (RTH only) : 2546.50

      • 13% limit down (RTH only) : 2382.00

      • 20% limit down (RTH only) : 2190.00

      10Y Treasury yields are down 15bps…

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      The Euro is strengthening against the dollar…

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      WTI Crude is collapsing, hitting a $30 handle

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      European Stoxx 50 futures are down 7.3%

      It appears Trump did not offer enough detail and immediacy to appease the market’s need for funds to stop the collapse. Additionally, the uncertainty over the impact on European supply chains is also weighing on markets.

      The market is now demanding 90bps of rate-cuts for next week’s FOMC…

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      Chris Martenson and John Rubino explain why the virus is the catalyst not the cause of the crash…

      For years, Peak Prosperity has been raising a loud warning of the ‘Everything Bubble’ that the world’s central banks have blown in global asset prices.

      Over that time, we’ve debated with hundreds of economic experts on what will be the trigger to “pop” this mania.

      Well, now we’re finding out.

      The economic damage being wrought worldwide by the coronavirus is the black swan the system never saw coming. Trade is being strangled, and the necessary productivity needed to support that massive increase in global debt that has been taken on over the past decade is just not there.

      Bankruptcies are set to ripple across industries like wildfire. Mass layoffs will return with a vengeance. For certain industries — like travel, hospitality, and the shale oil drillers — this will be an extinction-level event for many players.

      As ugly as the swift -20% drop in markets from from February’s highs has been, this is just the start of the reckoning, folks.

      Additionally, As El-Erian notes, the NBA suspension is really bring the fear home…

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      Tyler Durden

      Wed, 03/11/2020 – 22:08

    • Stock Buybacks Crash Just As Markets Need Them Most
      Stock Buybacks Crash Just As Markets Need Them Most

      At the start of January, when the market euphoria was at an all time high, the blow off top meltup was raging and an army of millennial Robinhood daytraders was about to be unleashed (only to be crucified at the end of February), we first warned our readers that “Institutions, Retail And Algos Are Now All-In, Just As Buybacks Tumble.” In the markets, nobody noticed and the warning fell on deaf ears as the relentless melt up, which we called for what it was, namely a clear “distribution” from smart to dumb money – continued. 

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      Exactly two months and one bear market later, the first in 11 years, they finally noticed, with Bloomberg today writing that US companies, which until now were quite happy to sell some BBB-rated bonds and use the proceeds to buy stocks to prop up their stock price, have stepped back from repurchasing their shares even before the coronavirus outbreak (something we made quite clear in January).

      Using a calculation by the permabulls over at Birinyi, Bloomberg reports that companies have announced $122 billion of share repurchases in January and February, which as we warned was the lowest in years and down 46% from a year ago for the biggest drop to start a year since 2009.

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      The numbers above fail to capture the crash in markets the followed the acute phase of Coronavirus pandemic, as well as the most recent oil plunge that has caused a plunge in oil prices and hammered all junk-bond funded companies. As such, Bloomberg’s reporters correctly point out that the “reduction underlines a concern that will get bigger should the virus inaugurate an age of prudence among corporate treasurers. Luxuries such as share repurchases, while showing signs of picking up amid the rout, are easy to cut when cash preservation and creditworthiness become the priorities.“

      Which is not to say that companies do not buyback their stock when markets tumble: indeed during prior corrections, repurchases may have prevented equity losses from snowballing. For example, in the middle of the sell-off in May 2019, repurchases by BofA’s corporate clients surged 23% for the eighth-busiest week in a decade. The market bottomed on the first day of June. During the route in February 2018, the rebound in stocks came in a week when Goldman Sachs’s corporate-trading desk saw the most buyback orders ever.

      This time however, with a global recession over the corner, it may be different. Indeed, with companies now rushing to draw down on revolvers in a liquidity procurement panic, the last thing they will be spending money on ahead of the recession is buybacks. In fact, one can argue that the main reason why we are now in a bear market and on the verge of a recession is because of companies such as Boeing, which until recently spent billions on buybacks; companies which are now drawing down on their revolvers.

      “If they’re forced to use that for other areas of the business, you’ll lose some of that key support in the market,” said Mike Stritch, chief investment officer for BMO Wealth Management. “That’s a key underpinning for the stock market, and you do worry you’re going to see some companies folding up on this.”

      That the disappearance of buybacks is a problem is an understatement: as we reported recently for the past decade, the only source of buying have been companies themselves, repurchasing their stock.

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      Ironically, while companies should have stopped repurchasing their stock a long time ago, buyback appetite remained strong in recent weeks, and in the final week of February, when the S&P 500 tumbled the most since 2008, Goldman’s corporate clients snapped up their own shares at the fastest rate in two years, with volume running at 2.3 times the average in 2019. Unfortunately, it now appears they used up much of their dry powder just as stocks were about to take another leg lower. 

      In a perfect world, companies should maximize their buybacks at the lows and halt them at the highs, yet in the real world the opposite happens, even if there are plenty of experts who will tell you what “should” happen, experts such as Don Townswick, director of equity strategies at Conning, who told Bloomberg that “when your stock price is undervalued, buybacks become more attractive. At these levels in the marketplace, smart management is looking at this and thinking, ‘This is the time to actually realize those buybacks. We’re buying our stock 15% below where we thought it was.’”

      Ah yes, but what Don is forgetting is that the bulk of buybacks in recent years was debt-funded, and unfortunately right now credit markets are slammed shut which means that companies have to rely on their own cashflow generation and cash balances to fund management’s favorite stock option boosting activity. There is just one problem: as we first reported last year, corporate America’s cash is draining at the fastest rate in decades, with balances at S&P 500 companies excluding financial firms plunging 15% in the past 12 months.

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      What’s worse is that the market now appears to be frontrunning the inability of companies to prop up their own stock prices, and is punishing those companies that have relied the most on buybacks. As Bloomberg notes, while the whole market is down more than 11% this year through yesterday, the S&P 500 Buyback Index that tracks stocks with the highest payout ratio has fared far worse, falling 19% this year.

      Almost as if traders know that the golden goose, that propped up the market on so many occasions in the past, is now dead.


      Tyler Durden

      Wed, 03/11/2020 – 22:05

    • End Of Growth: Does Covid-19 Herald An Era Of Decline?
      End Of Growth: Does Covid-19 Herald An Era Of Decline?

      Authored by Chris Hamilton via Econimica blog,

      I’m going to suggest that the Coronavirus is more a window or a marker that separates what will be seen as the end of an era and the beginning of another.  Corona-virus is serious, global, and appears it will cause significant death and disruption. 

      But Coronavirus itself isn’t the problem (no more than Spanish Flu was in 1918/1919).  There is likely to be 9 to 18 months of global pandemic with large scale loss of life, but after the pandemic, things are more likely to return to “normal”.  And it’s the discussion of what is the “normal” we have seen over the past 7 decades versus the current and coming decades that I hope to spur.

      To begin, the chart below shows the annual change in the under 60 year old US population (green line) versus annual change in 60+ year old US population (yellow line).  Also shown is annual US federal deficit split between public debt (red columns) and Intragovernmental (IG…blue columns representing Social Security, etc.), and lastly the federal funds rate (black line).  Simply, as population growth of the working age population slowed, first large scale legal and illegal immigration was utilized to maintain economic and financial growth. 

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      However, since 2008, working age population growth has rapidly decelerated and immigration slowed…and in their place have come interest rate cuts to zero and accompanying massive debt (I show federal debt below, but corporate debt has also binged of the nearly free money to buy their own stock and pay dividends).  2019 was the first year in US history the working-age population declined…and of course all net population growth now comes among the elderly.  The elderly who, on average, earn/spend half as much, are highly credit averse, and prefer to pay down existing mortgages and debt.

      Changing gears but still tangentially, the weekly change in Federal Reserve holdings of US Treasury bonds (yellow columns) and the impact of that purchasing on the Wilshire 5000 (red line representing all publicly traded US equities).  Look again at the chart above of the fast decelerating growth of potential employees, potential consumers, potential stock purchasers among the working-age.  Consider the mandatory selling of the elderly…and then…

      Consider the rationale and relationship for the Fed’s “activism”.

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      Broadening out to show the weekly change in Federal Reserve held mortgage backed securities (MBS…blue columns), Treasuries (yellow columns), and again the Wilshire 5000 (red line).

      Again, consider the Fed’s motivation and the relationship of Fed buying and asset prices sky-rocketing.

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      Next, perhaps also worthy of some discussion is the Fed’s experiment to control interest rates via interest paid on excess reserves (IOER).  Just a reminder, prior to ’08, banks collectively held literally a few billion in excess reserves but in the ’09 GFC, the Fed stuffed them with excess reserves.  The excess reserves peaked just prior to the end of QE and began precipitously declining years prior to any balance sheet reductions by the Fed.  However, during that intermediate period while the Fed was raising the Federal Funds Rate, the Fed also raised the interest paid to the largest banks on those trillions in excess reserves.  Despite the fast rising, Fed sponsored, risk-free returns for lending no money, excess reserves plummeted.  What is so fascinating is that when the Fed felt compelled to begin cutting the FFR (and the IOER’s), reducing the returns on those excess reserves…the Fed also restarted QE (or “Not-QE”) and magically bank excess reserves ceased declining and began rising!?!  An increase in excess of $400 billion in Fed held Treasuries has coincided with a nearly $250 billion increase in excess reserves?!?

      However, despite the $1.5 trillion in excess reserves, banks (and others) are oversubscribing Fed repo auctions at record levels…perhaps this is worthy of some discussion?

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      Next, consider the Fed’s holdings of US Treasuries by durations and the resultant impact on the spread of the 10 year Treasury minus the 2 year Treasury.  Prior to the GFC, the Fed conducted their policy rather banker like, in a rather boring fashion.  However, since the GFC, the Fed is spastically dumping one duration while pouring into another.

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      And a focus on the Fed’s holdings of short term US Treasury bills versus the yield on the 3 month Treasury bill.  Check out the action on the far right…and perhaps this is discussion worthy?  The Fed is currently buying every duration, but more than anything, is sucking up bills at an unprecedented rate?!? Uhhh!

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      Global

      But now widen out and put all this into a global scope.  If we look at annual global working-age population growth (black dashed line below) split among the 1st world (blue line), Asia (excluding East Asia), and Africa (red line)…the picture of what is happening in the US makes a little more sense. 

      The working-age population of the 1st world begins a secular decline as of 2020.  For those curious, the 1st world below is collectively including all of the Western Hemisphere, Europe, Oceania, Russia and Eastern Europe, plus East Asia (China, Japan, S/N Korea)).  The 1st world consumes 75% of all commodities, has over 80% of the income, and consumes even more of the global exports…this is the population that takes out over 90% of the credit.  And as for Africa and Asia (excluding East Asia), they are totally reliant on the first world growth to export their cheap labor, cheap commodities, and finished goods.  Without growth in the first world consumer base, these 2nd and 3rd world nations haven’t an oar in the water.

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      And all this was before any inclusion of a likely pandemic.  Now, disruption and dislocation is likely on top of 1st world working age depopulation.  Discuss.


      Tyler Durden

      Wed, 03/11/2020 – 21:45

    • "Straight Up Racist": AOC Slams People For Not 'Patroning' Chinese Restaurants Due To Coronavirus
      “Straight Up Racist”: AOC Slams People For Not ‘Patroning’ Chinese Restaurants Due To Coronavirus

      Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) lashed out at ‘straight up racists’ for not ‘patroning’ Chinese restaurants.

      “Honestly, it sounds almost so silly to say, but there’s a lot of restaurants that are feeling the pain of racism, where people are literally not patroning Chinese restaurants, they’re not patroning Asian restaurants because of just straight-up racism around the coronavirus,” she said on Instagram Live on Tuesday.

      Watch:

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      As Fox News notes, social media users were quick to call out AOC for trivializing actual racism.

      “Honestly though, Alexandria. Can we at least try to reserve the term racism for things that are actually evil and racist?” said congressional candidate Luke Edison Negron.

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      If everything is racist, nothing is racist?

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      Tyler Durden

      Wed, 03/11/2020 – 21:25

    • Stocks Puke Into Bear Market As US Financial Conditions Crash Most 'Since Lehman'
      Stocks Puke Into Bear Market As US Financial Conditions Crash Most ‘Since Lehman’

      Today the stench of a desperate liquidity scramble as The Dollar rallied while Stocks, Bonds, Bitcoin, Crude, and Gold were all dumped.

      The Fed ramped up its liquidity bailout facility to a stunning $175 billion per day and still the market kept collapsing…

      The Dow and S&P crash into a bear market…erasing most of the Trump rally…

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      This is the fastest drawdown from a peak into bear market in history, and worst start to a year since 2009…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      US Financial Conditions are tightening massively…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      Crashing at the fastest pace since Lehman… (NOTE – the sudden drop is reminiscent of the first moments of crisis in August 2007)

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      Source: Bloomberg

      With a massive dollar shortage evident…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      Forcing The Fed to puke liquidity into the markets…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      Which is perhaps why the market is now demanding 82bps of rate-cuts next week by The Fed…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      Today was a bloodbath in US equities with Small Caps and The Dow hammered hardest…

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      Dow Futures show the week’s carnage best – just make sure to check the scale, these are simply massive swings…

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      And on the week, Small Caps are down almost 13%…

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      The Dow was the biggest underperformer because Boeing stock crashed today, but it was the CDS that is more worrying…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      Virus-related travel and leisure sectors were hammered…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      Bank stocks were clubbed like a baby seal today, now down a stunning 10-16% on the week alone!

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      Source: Bloomberg

      VIX surged back above 50 today…

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      As Bloomberg details, the historic oil-market collapse that’s dragging down shares of the biggest Western explorers is swelling yields on investor payouts. The elite cohort of large international drillers known as the supermajors – Exxon Mobil Corp., Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Chevron Corp., Total SA and BP Plc – now are churning out bloated yields that dwarf those paid by the broader S&P 500 Index.

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      Source: Bloomberg

      Credit markets are collapsing with HY spreads smashing wider…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      And IG spreads are exploding in the US…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      Treasuries were very mixed today with the short-end rallying (2Y -5bps) and long-end selling off (30Y +5bps)…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      10Y Yields pushed back above the pre-weekend plunge levels…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      The Dollar rallied today as everything as was sold – suggesting a massive scramble for liquidity…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      Rather notably, Developed Market FX is now trading with a higher vol than Emerging Market FX…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      Cryptos continued to slide lower, with Ethereum hammered today…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      Bitcoin was battered back below $8000…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      Ethereum plunged back below $200…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      Commodities were all lower today…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      WTI’s hopeful rally ended today with prices back to a $32 handle…

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      Gold was sold today too alongside bonds, bitcoin, and stocks…

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      And for a sense of just how much oil has crashed, the number of barrels that an ounce of gold can buy is exploding…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      Finally, Bloomberg notes that investors are piling into gold day-after-day as concerns escalate about the impact of the coronavirus, markets gyrate, and rate-cut expectations jump. Holdings in bullion-backed exchange-traded funds expanded 55 tons in the three days to Tuesday, with increases seen both on days when S&P 500 Indexsank, as well as posting gains. The tally stands at a fresh record, and year-to-date inflows already total more than half of the 323.4 tons added in 2019.

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      Source: Bloomberg

      This week is the worst for a stock/bond portfolio since Lehman…

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      Source: Bloomberg

      And investors have swung from “Extreme Greed” to “Extreme Fear” at the fastest pace on record…

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      Tyler Durden

      Wed, 03/11/2020 – 21:05

    • Islamic Scholar Who Said Coronavirus Was "Allah's Punishment" Gets Coronavirus
      Islamic Scholar Who Said Coronavirus Was “Allah’s Punishment” Gets Coronavirus

      Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

      An Islamic scholar who said the coronavirus was “Allah’s punishment” for China’s treatment of Muslims now has coronavirus.

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      How ironic.

      Back in February, Hadi Al-Modarresi, who is based in Iran, said that the coronavirus outbreak was “undoubtedly an act of Allah that is divine punishment against the Chinese for their treatment, mockery, and disrespect towards Muslims and Islam,” reported MEMRI-TV.

      “It is obvious that the spread of this virus is an act of Allah. How do we know this? The spread of the coronavirus began in China, an ancient and vast country, the population of which makes up one seventh of humanity,” said Al-Modarresi.

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      “More than a billion people live in that country. The authorities in that country are tyrannical and they laid siege to more than a million Muslims and placed them under house arrest. The journalists in that country began to mock the niqab of Muslim women and they forced Muslim men to eat pork and drink wine. Allah sent a disease upon them and this disease laid siege to 40 million [Chinese people]. The same niqab that they mocked has been forced upon them, both men and women, by Allah, by means of the state authorities and officials,” he added.

      It is now being reported that Al-Modarresi has contracted coronavirus, meaning that Allah must obviously be punishing him for wrongdoing.

      The scholar tweeted to his almost 1 million followers with a prayer to Muhammad and the revelation that “The health of His Eminence is in a marked improvement.”

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      He also tweeted an image of himself wearing a surgical mask.

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      Twitter users reacted with little in the way of sympathy.

      “Allah 0 – coronavirus 1,” remarked one.

      “He shows a great capacity for convoluted reasoning. Of course it is all based on 7th century logic,” added another.

      *  *  *

      My voice is being silenced by free speech-hating Silicon Valley behemoths who want me disappeared forever. It is CRUCIAL that you support me. Please sign up for the free newsletter here. Donate to me on SubscribeStar here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown.


      Tyler Durden

      Wed, 03/11/2020 – 21:05

    • Watch Live: President Trump Addresses The Nation About Covid-19 Crisis Plans
      Watch Live: President Trump Addresses The Nation About Covid-19 Crisis Plans

      Having ‘ummed’ and ‘ahhed’ for a few days, it appears the crash of the stock market has President Trump taking this virus seriously. Having failed to deliver any specifics this week on his “very substantial relief” package, Trump tweeted that he will deliver a statement on Wednesday night regarding the coronavirus as the administration mulls how to address the fast-growing health crisis.

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      The president told reporters during a meeting with banking executives that the statement would involve both health and economic measures being taken to combat the virus, though he would not specify what they would be.

      Trump tweeted several times Tuesday afternoon about the coronavirus, saying he is “fully prepared to use the full power of the Federal Government to deal with” the disease.

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      He later tweeted “The Media should view this as a time of unity and strength. We have a common enemy, actually, an enemy of the World, the CoronaVirus. We must beat it as quickly and safely as possible. There is nothing more important to me than the life & safety of the United States!”

      As The Hill reports,  White House aides have been negotiating with lawmakers on legislation to address the economic fallout of the spreading virus, which has rattled markets and sparked concerns among workers who may not have paid sick leave or the ability to work remotely.

      The administration is also said to be considering a national emergency declaration to free up additional resources to fight the coronavirus, which the World Health Organization (WHO) on Tuesday declared a global pandemic. Additional travel restrictions are also said to be on the table.

      Watch Live (his address is due to begin at 2100ET):


      Tyler Durden

      Wed, 03/11/2020 – 20:45

    • Traders React To The Death Of The Longest Bull Market In History
      Traders React To The Death Of The Longest Bull Market In History

      After a record 11-year, 357% surge off the March 6th, 2009 lows, The Dow Jones Industrial Average’s longest bull-run in history came to an end today (two days after its 11th birthday) with its first 20% – bear market – drop.

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      In fact, the 19-day collapse is the fastest peak-to-bear-market crash in the history of the stock market.

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      Asset-gatherers, commission-rakers, strategists, analysts, talking heads, and freshly minted gurus (well it always goes up right?) are out en masse to lament the death of the bull (and of course to look for the next dip-buying opportunity): (via Bloomberg)

      Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial Inc., where she started working in 2009. Prior to that, she was with Hartford Financial Services Group Inc.:

      “Did I see it coming this far? No. Throughout the past 11 years, the market has had a lot of dips, and always the Federal Reserve came to the rescue. There were 5% dips, there were 10% drops, and then there were periods where the dips were bigger. Right now, the Fed is not enough, central bank action is not enough. There is a pyramid of uncertainty right now. It’s a man-versus-virus story, but that’s not the only concern.”

      Ian Winer is currently an advisory board member at Bellator Asset Management. He ran a long/short portfolio at Galleon Group when the financial crisis hit. In the meantime, he’s worked at Nomura and Wedbush.:

      “When Lehman Brothers came under, the next day we came in, we didn’t have any portfolio, it has just vanished. I didn’t believe we’d bounce back the way we did, at all. I completely under-appreciated the liquidity that the central bank has been pouring into the market and how powerful of a force that would be. I was still scarred — and even to these days, there’s an element of me that still has a hard time believing in this bull market, having seen the devastation the financial crisis has caused. It’s still hard not to have it at the back of people’s minds, even after all this time in the rally. There’s a level of skepticism that entered into people’s minds — people of my age, Gen X, who never quite recovered. A rally since 2009 speaks volumes about what the Central bank’s liquidity injection was able to accomplish. The actual prices in the stock market, the real estate market and other speculative markets have been propped up, which has created an asset bubble that will eventually burst.”

      Jeff Mills is chief investment officer of Bryn Mawr Trust. Over the past decade, he spent time at PNC Financial Services and joined Bryn Mawr in 2019:

      “In terms of mood and sentiment, it’s textbook. In markets, stability breeds instability. As we got a Phase 1 trade deal, as Brexit was resolved, as the Fed promised to keep rates low, all risks seemed to melt away. Stability in markets causes the perfectly rational behavior of investors taking more risk. That additional risk taking sows the seeds of instability. Just as people are most optimistic, just as the market seems least likely to fall, it does. So the swing from very optimistic to fear, in my opinion, is not unusual. What is a bit unusual is the catalyst and the speed of the move lower. I think that has exacerbated the mood swing.”

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      Marvin Loh is a senior global macro strategist for State Street. In 2008, he was at Oppenheimer covering finance companies:

      “If you were in growth, in the Faang names, it has been tremendous. The amount of wealth that was created just by being in the market was tremendous. If you were lucky enough to have been in the growth sectors or, even better, in the tech names that drove it, it’s just been unprecedented. One thing I found interesting is just how much more — the fact that growth out-performed value by so much for such a long period of time and it wasn’t shared to the same degree globally. U.S. markets outperformed the rest of the world. That shows how unique it was from that perspective and why it was able to power on for so long.”

      Doug Ramsey is chief investment officer at Leuthold Group. He’s lived through the 1987 crash and the tech bust. He joined Leuthold in 2005:

      “It was the most hated bull market — people said that early on. I think in the middle of the decade people go on board. Certainly in the last year they became believers,” he said. “I’d also call the whole decade the steroids era because of all the help out of the Federal Reserve. I think it certainly did get a lot of help from the Federal Reserve. This was the steroids era of the stock market — the Fed propped it up.”

      Linda Zhang is the chief executive officer at Purview Investments. When the bull market started in March 2009, Zhang worked as a portfolio manager for global multi-asset mutual funds at MFS Investment Management. Zhang worked at BlackRock when the financial crisis hit:

      “This bull market will go down in history as the one that nobody believed would last this long. A lot of people have been hurt because their retirement money disappeared. Most of us had no idea in 2005 and 2006 what type of pain the financial markets are about to go through. What destroyed us in 2008 was over-leverage. What brought to where we are in 2020 is too much hope, sky-high valuations.”

      Rich Weiss, chief investment officer of multi-asset strategies at American Century Investments in Mountain View, California:

      “This bull market is very atypical in terms of duration. If you look at the last couple of years, growth hasn’t been stellar: anywhere around the world. Real economic growth is hovering around 2%, which is respectable, but certainly not bull market growth. This particularly bull market, low interest rates are arguably the primary driver.”

      Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities LLC:

      “So many of the rules that were put in place were supposed to help small companies, and yet it’s the big ones that have benefited, on the banking side in particular. That’s made it more certain that policy makers need to make sure banks do well, and central banks will react more aggressively because of it.”

      Dean Curnutt, chief executive officer of Macro Risk Advisors:

      “We got here because of unusual, potentially unprecedented circumstances and because a strongly held consensus baked into market prices has been shattered,” he said. “Volatility that has remained so low for so long undeniably dictated positioning and forced investors to contemplate whether markets had experienced permanent, structural change. The sharpness of this adjustment, then, is the result of the collision of crowded trades implemented during exceptionally quiet times with a bona-fide turning point in the business cycle.”

      However, we give the last word to former Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher who prophetically mused last week:

      “Does The Fed really want to have a put every time the market gets nervous? …Coming off all-time highs, does it make sense for The Fed to bail the markets out every single time… creating a trap?”

      “The Fed has created this dependency and there’s an entire generation of money-managers who weren’t around in ’74, ’87, the end of the ’90s, and even 2007-2009.. and have only seen a one-way street… of course they’re nervous.“

      “The question is – do you want to feed that hunger? Keep applying that opioid of cheap and abundant money?“

      the market is dependent on Fed largesse… and we made it that way…

      …but we have to consider, through a statement rather than an action, that we must wean the market off its dependency on a Fed put.”

      Perhaps, just perhaps, the market carnage is all happening for ‘your’ own good.


      Tyler Durden

      Wed, 03/11/2020 – 20:25

    • CME To Close Chicago Trading Floor On Friday The 13th
      CME To Close Chicago Trading Floor On Friday The 13th

      Slowly but surely, the paralysis that has gripped virtually every corner of the global economy is spreading toward the beating heart of the world’s capital markets, and according to a notice posted late on Wednesday by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, starting Friday the 13th the world’s biggest derivatives marketplace will become a ghost town – well, more so even than usual, since the CME already replaced most humans with algos and computers – as it closes its Chicago trading floor indefinitely “as a precaution to reduce large gatherings that can contribute to the spread of coronavirus in line with the advice of medical professionals.”

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      Better days

      The CME notice is below:

      CME Group today announced it will close its Chicago trading floor as of the close of business Friday, March 13, 2020, as a precaution to reduce large gatherings that can contribute to the spread of coronavirus in line with the advice of medical professionals. All products will continue to trade on CME Globex as they do today.

      No coronavirus cases have been reported on the trading floor or in the Chicago Board of Trade building. The reopening of the trading floor will be evaluated as more medical guidance on the coronavirus becomes available.  The company’s headquarters at 20 S. Wacker Drive will remain open.

      The trading floor community will receive an additional q&a tomorrow related to the execution of certain floor products, procedures and protocols and other floor-related practices.

      Expect all other cash, future and derivatives exchanges to follow in the CME’s footsteps, as the world’s professional traders no longer welcome in their place of business, scramble for office space in their parents’ basement.

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      Before the machines took over.


      Tyler Durden

      Wed, 03/11/2020 – 20:05

    • "We've Moved Beyond The Disaster Stage & Are Approaching Catastrophe…"
      “We’ve Moved Beyond The Disaster Stage & Are Approaching Catastrophe…”

      Authored by Anthony Mueller via The Mises Institute,

      [In the second part of this interview, Brazilian journalist André de Godoy speaks with Antony Mueller about the relationship between credit and money, the inflationary process, and its relation to the real economy. How will the current debt binge end? What comes after Quantitative Easing?]

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      André de Godoy: Ludwig von Mises mentions in his books that credit expansion is one of the causes of the inflation beyond the monetary expansion. What are the similarities and differences between those two phenomena?

      Antony Mueller: Money comes into circulation through the channel of credit. Commercial banks get a loan from the central bank and provide loans to consumers, business, and government. Thus, there are two sources of credit creation and two basic types of money: central bank money and depository money. The modern monetary system is a pure credit system based on fiat money without a physical backing such as gold, for example. Governments left the gold standard with the beginning of World War I and they never returned to it. Nowadays, the government through its central bank can create as much money as it wants.

      Godoy: What exactly is the relationship between credit and money?

      Mueller: While fiat money is based on credit, not all money impacts on the economy. For example, commercial banks can borrow money from the central bank and not use it for loans but deposit it in their accounts at the central bank. Then more central bank money does not mean more commercial credit for the investors and consumers in the economy. Also, more money that comes into the economy does not necessarily mean more demand because the holders of money may slow down the frequency of transaction–the so-called velocity of money. When the economic agents spend less and hold their money assets for longer period of time, the velocity of circulation of money slows. Therefore, it is wrong to postulate that more money means more credit and that more money always means more spending. That was the false assumption of the monetarists.

      Godoy: Concerning the exchange rate policy, how can the variations of the exchange rate lead to inflation?

      Mueller: In the long run, the exchange rate reflects the purchasing power parity. In the short run, however, significant deviations happen because of policy intervention and because the central banks manipulate the interest rate. One intervention leads to the next, and finally everything gets messed up. For example, when the governments try to stimulate their economies through extra deficit spending, the interest rate should rise because of inflationary expectations, yet the central bank may counter this and keep the monetary interest artificially below its natural rate. In this case, smart money leaves the country and the currency devalues. When, as it is often the case with developing countries and emerging economies, the import elasticity is low, the quantity of the imports will not fall very much even when the price of the imports in domestic currency rises as a consequence of the exchange rate devaluation. This then may ignite price inflation at home and then, in turn, even more money tends to leave the country. In its desperation, government then typically feels forced to manipulate the exchange rate or to impose capital controls. In the end, the mess is so great that the stimulus experiment backfires and instead of the intended economic expansion, the country suffers a foreign exchange crisis along with an economic contraction or even a collapse.

      Godoy: Inflation is a subject that often shows up in the news, but the causes of the inflation do not get as much attention as its consequences. What are the causes of inflation and how do the factors interact?

      Mueller: Let us first make it clear that the term “inflation” suffers from a false use. The exact meaning of inflation is the expansion of the money supply. To say that “inflation rose” makes no sense because the term inflation refers to a volume, the monetary volume, which can expand (inflate) or contract (deflate). When I talk about the price level, I prefer the term “price inflation” to differentiate the fall and rise of the price level from the inflation that takes place with the expansion and contraction of the money supply. Additionally, Austrian economics stresses that the relationship between monetary expansion and the price level does not work in a mechanical way.

      Godoy: Could you explain the process?

      Mueller: To put the problem as simply as possible, one may say that price inflation happens when spending grows faster than the production. An excess of spending over production results when the money supply expands and when business, consumers, and government borrow to spend more. The discrepancy between the demand and the supply of goods and services leads to rising prices. Price inflation may also happen without the expansion of the money supply when a so-called supply shock happens and the supply of goods contracts. Then prices rise because the volume of goods has shrunk while the money supply has not changed. In order to understand inflation, one must keep various factors in mind: the process of how money enters the economy beginning with the central banks and the credit policy of the commercial banks, the rates of change of the money supply, of the credit volume, and of the velocity of transaction, as well as the nominal aggregate spending compared to the real supply of goods and services. The economics of inflation is not an easy topic.

      Godoy: When the government expands the monetary base but the commercial banks do not put the excess money into circulation, money in the hands of the public does not increase. Does this mean that in this case there will be no increase of prices and reduction of the purchasing power?

      Mueller: Yes, that is how it works. In the end, the outcome depends on human action. Human action takes place in time and therefore expectations matter. Inflationary expectations feed on themselves and likewise do deflationary expectations. That is why both processes, once they gain momentum, are so hard to control. If we had a sound monetary system, expectations would be relatively stable. Yet we have a state-run fiat monetary system with fractional reserve. Such a monetary system is not only very volatile but prone to prolonged phases of credit expansion and credit contraction. These big cycles can cover decades. We have been experiencing such an expansionary cycle in the industrialized countries since the end of the link of the US dollar to gold in the 1970s.

      Godoy: Can this cycle end?

      Mueller: This current cycle has been long overdue to turn into a contraction. Yet all major central banks have been fighting like mad against the trend. In Japan, the futile fight began already in the 1990s, in the United States it started at the beginning of the new millennium. Since the European debt crisis about ten years ago, the European Central Bank has also joined in. Thus, what we observe today is a desperate fight against deflation.

      Godoy: How does the unitary decrease in the money value happen under a fiat system?

      Mueller: Under the gold standard or a similar system with a strong anchor that moors the money supply, there will be fluctuation of the money supply in the short run. In the long run, prices will tend to fall as productivity increases. Expectations do not get out of whack, because inflation and deflation cannot deviate disproportionately. Yet under a fiat monetary system, inflation and deflation can take on excessive proportions. I fear that the ketchup parable of inflation holds up. You shake and hit the bottom of the ketchup bottle, but nothing comes out. Suddenly, the ketchup splashes onto your plate, on the table and on your shirt in a burst. It is the same with money inflation. The central banks push and shake, and no price inflation appears, until it suddenly comes as a massive burst of price increases and as hyperinflation. The analogy holds also for what comes after it. Whereas the ketchup sauce pours out of the bottle in a splash, it takes a lot of work and a long time to get the excess sauce back into the bottle. In fact, a full redoing will be impossible. Under a fiat monetary system, it is not only inflation that comes suddenly as a splash but also deflation. Under a fiat system, a monetary contraction is malicious, because it will typically show up out of the blue and play havoc with the business of the economic agents.

      Godoy: As a final question, please let me ask you for your outlook for the US American economy compared to Brazil’s.

      Mueller: The two economies are in very different stages of the business cycle. Brazil is still in a slump that began five years ago which brought with it an unemployment rate of over ten percent (and the rate still lingers above this mark), while the United States is officially at full employment. The question is when Brazil may recover and if the United States economy will tank. First to Brazil: Since January 1, 2019, Brazil has a new government which is different from its predecessors, as it has a strong promarket profile. Confidence is on the rise, and in this respect it is only a question of time when the Brazilian economy will recover. However, there are two risks: firstly, that inflation may come back to haunt Brazil when the recovery gets stronger and secondly, what will happen if the international economic environment continues to weaken and Brazil’s major trading partners, including China, enter into a recession.

      Godoy: How about the United States?

      Mueller: The policymakers have fabricated a gigantic balloon that has taken us atop a pyramid. We know that this situation is unsustainable, but we do not know to which side the balloon will fall. The American central bank has tried several times to deflate the balloon but blinked as soon as the stock market started to wobble. Like fiscal policy, monetary policy has painted itself into a corner: fiscal policy with too much public debt and monetary policy with too much private sector debt. Austrian economists have always warned that such policies of excessive credit creation will end in a disaster. I suspect that we have moved beyond the disaster stage and are approaching a catastrophe, which hopefully will serve as a wake-up call and alert the public and the policymakers about the need to reform the monetary system.


      Tyler Durden

      Wed, 03/11/2020 – 19:45

    Digest powered by RSS Digest

    Mar 11

    Today’s News 11th March 2020

    • Orders Plunge For Italy's Luxury Suppliers Amid Nationwide Lockdown
      Orders Plunge For Italy’s Luxury Suppliers Amid Nationwide Lockdown

      Industry sources told Reuters on Tuesday that global luxury brands, including Louis Vuitton, Parada, and others, have significantly reduced orders with top Italian suppliers as Covid-19 disruptions are seen across the world.

      Italy has imposed unprecedented travel restrictions on 60 million of its people to contain the fast-spreading virus, which has so far resulted in 9,172 confirmed cases, with 463 deaths.

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      Reuters spoke with high-end clothing suppliers in Veneto, an area nearby Tuscany and affected by the new travel restrictions. Suppliers said a perfect storm of factors has been building since late January, as demand for luxury goods from China crashed, and Italian suppliers are suspending operations or running at less than full capacity because of a nationwide lockdown to contain the virus.

      “We were producing 800-1,000 handbags a month for Gucci. In February we made 450 and we have no orders for March,” said the operator of a small handbag supplier in Scandicci, an area outside Florence that is home to a major hub for leather goods production. “We don’t have orders for April or May either. The company has been brought to a standstill and we are having to put our workers on temporary redundancy schemes.”

      The virus has severely damaged the global luxury goods industry, already dealing with waning demand that started with the Hong Kong riots in the second half of 2019. Then the virus outbreak in China at the start of the year delivered an even larger blow to the industry as the world’s largest consumer was forced into quarantine.

      Flavio Cereda, an industry analyst at Jefferies, noted on Monday that he slashed his 2020 sales forecast for the global luxury goods market because of the virus outbreak in China, the Middle East, Europe, and the Americas.

      Cereda expects luxury goods sales will decline 3% on the year, as opposed to his earlier forecast of 1% growth.

      “Prolonged disruption of economic activity may well result in supply chain issues for most brands,” he said, adding, however, that he had no evidence of that happening yet.

      The Scandicci manufacturing hub is an area home to top suppliers for LVMH, Kering, and Prada has had strict travel restrictions go into effect to start the week, which has forced some companies to operate at less than full capacity.

      Massimiliano Guerrini is the owner of Almax, a Scandicci-based luxury goods supplier for top luxury brands, said orders noticeably decreased when China started shutting down in late January due to the virus outbreak.

      “I thought things were not too bad given the circumstances, but now this new alarm in Italy risks making more casualties among businesses than among people and disrupting the supply chain for the orders that are still in the pipeline,” he said.

      “We have 270 employees and have diversified our customers, so we managed to mitigate the impact so far. But some of the smaller suppliers are not going to make it.”

      Reuters spoke with an operator of another supplier in Veneto, who reported a 30% slump in orders from Louis Vuitton.

      Claudio Marenzi, President of Confindustria Moda, a trade organization in Italy, said the Italian textiles industry could see rapid consolidation this year as the virus crisis across the world is causing severe demand shocks that are also resulting in supply shocks as suppliers in Italy idle plants on a nationwide lockdown.

      “Since the virus emerged in China we knew there was going to be a slowdown in the first quarter. But now the whole year risks going up in smoke for us,” Marenzi said.

      Italy is Europe’s third-largest economy, and the lockdown across the country could result in a recession. 


      Tyler Durden

      Wed, 03/11/2020 – 02:45

    • Merkel Expects 60-70% Of Germans To Be Infected With Coronavirus
      Merkel Expects 60-70% Of Germans To Be Infected With Coronavirus

      Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

      Angela Merkel says she expects around 60-70 per cent of Germans will be infected with the coronavirus, which equates to about 53 million people.

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      Reportedly, the German Parliament fell completely silent when Merkel stated the number.

      News outlet Bild reported the German Chancellor’s comments, which echoed numbers forecast by Berlin virologist Christian Drosten, who added that such a total could take 2 years or longer to reach.

      Given the fact that coronavirus has a mortality rate of around 1 per cent, this could equate to over half a million deaths, although new methods of fighting the virus could reduce this number.

      The World Health Organization’s director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus claimed that the death rate was higher at 3.4 per cent, although this has been disputed.

      Germany, which has recorded 1,565 coronavirus cases and two deaths so far, has yet to impose the kind of quarantine measures seen in Italy, where the entire country has been placed on lockdown.

      German health authorities have said that people should avoid attending concerts, clubs or football games to limit the spread of the illness.

      *  *  *

      My voice is being silenced by free speech-hating Silicon Valley behemoths who want me disappeared forever. It is CRUCIAL that you support me. Please sign up for the free newsletter here. Donate to me on SubscribeStar here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown.


      Tyler Durden

      Wed, 03/11/2020 – 02:00

    • Covid-19, AIDS, & The Politics Of Viral Fear
      Covid-19, AIDS, & The Politics Of Viral Fear

      Authored by Peter van Buren via TheAmericanConservative.com,

      In the 1980’s, agenda-driven panic around the HIV epidemic set back the public health response by years…

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      Nothing is more viral than fear. Fear – fight or flight – is a terrible way to make decisions that call for time, science, and rational thinking. Want to screw up a public health crisis? Let fear drive.

      Democrats, Pavlovian conditioned by years of believing everything Trump does is “an existential threat,” are about twice as likely as Republicans to say the coronavirus poses an imminent danger. Make a joke of it—pandemic or Dempanic—but one’s political party should not affect how we respond to an epidemic.

      “Our hyper-polarization is so strong that we don’t even assess a potential health crisis in the same way. And so it impedes our ability to address it,” saidsaid Jennifer McCoy, a Georgia State political science professor who studies polarization.

       “I am not scared of Covid-19,” Abdu Sharkawy, an infectious disease expertat the University of Toronto in Canada,an infectious disease expert wrote.

      “I am scared about the loss of reason and wave of fear that has induced the masses of society into a spellbinding spiral of panic.”

      This is not about downplaying something serious. It is about preventing mistakes that will make things worse. Trump Derangement Syndrome might actually help kill us this time, as fear makes for poor public health decisions. Remember the 1980’s?

      In 1981 the CDC reported five cases of a new pneumonia. The disease didn’t even have a name until the next year, and wasn’t isolated in the lab until 1984. AIDS would go on to kill over 500,000 Americans. Yet while a horrible disease and a miserable way to die, in retrospect “the problem with AIDS was really two epidemics—the real health epidemic and the epidemic of the mind,” said Boston’s WBZ-TV station manager Tom Goodgame, quoted in Time. Meanwell, The New York Timesconcluded, “in the 1980’s, fear spread faster than AIDS.”

      America paid the price in lives.

      The fear was measurable. In the mid-80’s 60 percent of Americans wanted HIV+ people to carry a card noting their status; one in three said employers should fire employees who had AIDS. Some 21 percent said people with AIDS should be isolated from the rest of society in leper colonies. Even a professional medical journal wrote, “A specter is haunting our streets — the specter of AIDS, a remorseless and incurable disease whose nature, transmission and effects still contain elements of mystery.”

      Those mysteries are always the most dangerous elements in shaping public health policy via fear, and with AIDS, centered on exaggerating the problem. When early cases surfaced inside communities already viewed as modern day Sodoms, many sought to exaggerate the crisis from a quasi-religious point of view: God was smiting the gays. Tragically, too many felt the more who died of AIDS the better, and played up the deaths as “Judgement.” The rest of us, God-fearing, were safe. Homophobia manifested as fear crushed human compassion. It’s almost like hoping the current economy goes into recession, destroying the savings of millions of Americans, so Trump’s chances of reelection fall. Or one politician hoping the virus infects those at MAGA rallies.

      In the 1980’s, the Reagan administration, with its political debt to newly-empowered evangelical voters, was indifferent at best toward the study or prevention of AIDS. Congress agreed; in 1987 it banned the use of federal funds for AIDS prevention and education that “promoted or encouraged, directly or indirectly, homosexual activities.”

      Years were lost as the virus spread, and too many died because of the delay in funding.

      We were not innocent. In the mid-to-late 1980s “AIDS hysteria” was a familiar term in the media and public life, and popular comedians made crude jokes to amuse us. A study found “health care trainees and professionals demonstrated their level of empathy and caring for HIV/AIDS is negatively affected by the knowledge that the person being treated is homosexual.” A 1985 Time magazine story, “The New Untouchables,” focused on an incident in New York where parents refused to send their children to a school after one student was identified as HIV+. “What about somebody sneezing in the classroom? What about the water fountain? What about kids who get in a fight with a bloody nose? They don’t know!” said one frightened parent.

      Gay activists also sought to drive public opinion through fear. The fear of a “heterosexual breakout” was employed to coax a Middle American audience toward political awareness. The community also exaggerated the crisis as spur to more government funding. In 1988, after New York revised its estimates of HIV+ citizens significantly downward, members of AIDS Coalition to Unleash Power were arrested at a sit-in at the Health Department. Hecklers trailed the Health Commissioner demanding he resign. His home was picketed and spray-painted. There were death threats against him. Yet statistical studies some 30 years later showed even his lower numbers from the 1980s overestimated the extent of the epidemic by some 50 percent. The Commissioner had been right to tamp down the threat.

      Activists justify their use of fear as the only way to have focused attention on the disease. But that ignores the tragic results of their actions. While funding did increase, much of the government’s early AIDS-prevention budget was used to raise awareness among hetero college students, women, and others who faced relatively low risk. Money was diverted away from the communities that needed it most.

      Even today, AIDS and other fear-mongered diseases soak up a disproportionate share of research funds. Diseases that account for 84 percent of deaths in the U.S. get less than half of NIH funding. Cancer and HIV/AIDS in particular receive a disproportionately large amount, while chronic diseases like diabetes and obesity receive less funding relative to the costs they impose on society.

      The worry is always the unknown, and on Day One of an epidemic nearly everything is unknown. Mistakes get made as protocols are created (in reality, field tested) on the fly. Japan, with an excellent universal health care system and a non-partisan public health bureaucracy, miserably mishandled a cruise ship quarantine, turning the boat into a virus incubator. Remember when people believed they should not shake hands with a gay man for fear of catching the disease? Only when science replaced fear did AIDS subside to where today the disease is a manageable element of public health.

      “AIDS is grim enough without exaggeration,” cited one New York Times editorial 1987. It continued:

       “Why has the truth disappeared so far from view? Perhaps because the chief interpreters of the data want to reflect their own messages. Public health experts see a unique chance to reduce all sexually transmitted diseases. Medical researchers demand $1 billion in new Federal spending against AIDS, hoping to refurbish their laboratories. Government epidemiologists, seeking to protect homosexuals and drug addicts, fear the Reagan Administration may acquire the notion that these are the only people at risk. Moralists see a heaven-sent chance to preach fire, brimstone and restricted sex. Homosexuals have no desire to carry the stigma of AIDS alone.”

      While fear as a political manipulative tool is nothing new, the coronavirus panic appears at a new place in America. Social media encourages people Joker-like to pour fuel on fires. MSM pursues an unambiguous political agenda when it is not just peddling raw anxiety as a profit center. We are ever more diverse and ever more subreddit separated. It isn’t safe anymore for us to have common fears.

      Wash your hands. Ask questions. But keep fear in check. As you encounter information focusing on worst-case scenarios, which seems to exaggerate unknowns, uses terms like surge, crash, skyrocket, Katrina, is more White House gossip than science, anything that starts with Report: ask yourself if the primary purpose is peddling fear — to sell you a product, to get you to click, to influence your vote. Socially isolate yourself from that source.

      And stop reading political journalists to learn about a health issue. 

      Politico, currently bleating out Trump isn’t doing enough and is bungling what he is doing, was only recently criticizing Trump’s prescient travel ban for China travelers as ineffective, and worried it would antagonize Chinese leaders. I write this from New York, under a declared state of emergency. Yet for all the screaming headlines one finds the primary motivation for the declaration was simply “a more expedited purchasing and testing protocol.” It’s more about a better bureaucracy now than something with sirens and flashing lights now.

      The numbers will go up until they start going down (new cases are declining in China and South Korea.) There is nothing investors fear more than uncertainty, kryptonite to the markets. Right now that is all there is and volatility in the markets will continue until uncertainty, and then fear, back off. Before you blame someone or something, figure out how to blame away the virus in China, Italy, Iran, and elsewhere where they don’t have Trump, and do have universal healthcare, sick leave or whatever other partisan talking point is being pushed. Panic is easy, a measured response hard. We need to make good decisions. Lives depend on it.


      Tyler Durden

      Wed, 03/11/2020 – 00:05

    • Visualizing The Most Loved Brands, By Generation
      Visualizing The Most Loved Brands, By Generation

      When it comes to buying into brands, consumers are spoiled for choice, but, as Visual Capitalist’s Katie Jones notes, the vast amount of options available makes it increasingly difficult for brands to build meaningful emotional connections with them.

      But for the brands that do, the payoff can be huge.

      Today’s graphic pulls data from MBLM’s 2020 Brand Intimacy Report and visualizes the top 10 brands that different generations connect with the most.

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      Can Emotion Be Measured?

      Brands that tap into consumers’ emotions can establish higher levels of trust. This in turn creates a culture of loyalty that could ensure a unique standing in the market and long-term growth.

      In fact, intimate brands that have a strong emotional bond with their consumers tend to outperform top companies listed on the S&P 500 and Fortune 500 in both revenue and profit. To measure how brands emotionally connect with consumers, MBLM looked at four key factors:

      • Users: The existing relationship between a brand and a consumer

      • Emotional Connection: The degree of positive feelings the user has for a brand, and the extent to which their personal values align with the brand’s values

      • Archetype: The six markers that are present among intimate brands, which include fulfillment, identity, enhancement, ritual, nostalgia, and indulgence

      • Stage: The degree of intensity in the relationship across three phases: sharing, bonding, and fusing

      • Intimacy Score: Based on these four components, a score is assigned, ranging from 0-100

      The total score also reveals which brands rank the highest across different age groups. While there are some commonalities across each generation, can brands be all things to all people?

      The Chosen One

      There are very few brands that have the luxury of retaining loyal customers from different age brackets. Amazon, however, manages to transcend age. The retail giant appears in the top five for Millennials, Gen X, and Baby Boomers—with the latter awarding the brand their #1 spot.

      Every generation named “enhancement” as Amazon’s defining trait, meaning their lives have improved as a result of the relationship. The “ritual” trait also scored high, with users claiming the brand has become ingrained into their daily behavior.

      Ranked: Top Brands by Generation

      Gen Z and Millennials (18-34)

      Sony-owned PlayStation holds the title for the most intimate brand among Millennials, climbing up from the 8th spot in 2019. Impressively, more than 50% of Millennials have an emotional connection to the brand, with men having a particularly strong affinity for it.

      Having recently celebrated its 25th anniversary, the gaming brand’s success has been fueled by the increasing popularity of multiplayer and professional gaming, as well as new product innovation—with five of the ten best selling consoles owned by PlayStation.

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      Interestingly, when Gen Z (18-24) are singled out, Microsoft-owned Xbox ranks as #1, increasing its score to 73.5 in 2020 from 49.7 in 2018.

      Gen X (35-54)

      As the generational middle child, Gen X did not grow up with the same access to technology. However, their tech adoption is almost on par with Millennials, with similar adoption rates across tablet and smartphone ownership.

      It is no surprise therefore, that Apple has captured the hearts of this generation, sitting proudly in first place. When the iPhone launched in 2007, this group was between 22-41 years old, so they have likely been loyal followers of the tech brand since its earlier days.

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      While this generation has no qualms about shopping online, 72% of them shop in brick and mortar stores and are satisfied with doing so—which may be part of the reason why retail giant Walmart joins Amazon in the top 10.

      Baby Boomers (55-64)

      Controlling almost 70% of disposable income in the U.S., Baby Boomers are arguably the most influential of all consumer groups.

      While they feel the most emotionally connected to Amazon, it’s also true that Apple was another tech brand to win the affection of this age group.

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      This generation dominates almost 50% of consumer packaged goods (CPG) sales in the U.S.—which likely explains why the rest of their top brands are more traditional household names, such as Macy’s, Hershey’s, and Kellogg’s.

      It is also clear from the ranking that this group values brands with nostalgic qualities, as well as the ability to provide them with moments of indulgence.

      The Changing Brand Landscape

      The brand and consumer relationship has shifted with the ages, but each generation’s unique value system has remained the most important piece of the puzzle.

      It is worth noting that none of the Baby Boomer’s favorite brands appear in the ranking for those aged 18-24 (Gen Z). Are the preferences of younger generations signalling a cultural shift, in which we place more value on distraction rather than satisfaction?

      Note: The 2020 Brand Intimacy Report covers an age range of 18-64. The way that the ranking is structured makes it difficult to reflect conventional demographic groups (e.g. Gen Z, the Silent Generation etc.)


      Tyler Durden

      Tue, 03/10/2020 – 23:45

    • This Is A Test: How Will The Constitution Fare During A Nationwide Lockdown?
      This Is A Test: How Will The Constitution Fare During A Nationwide Lockdown?

      Authored by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

      “It takes a remarkable force to keep nearly a million people quietly indoors for an entire day, home from work and school, from neighborhood errands and out-of-town travel. It takes a remarkable force to keep businesses closed and cars off the road, to keep playgrounds empty and porches unused across a densely populated place 125 square miles in size. This happened … not because armed officers went door-to-door, or imposed a curfew, or threatened martial law. All around the region, for 13 hours, people locked up their businesses and ‘sheltered in place’ out of a kind of collective will. The force that kept them there wasn’t external – there was virtually no active enforcement across the city of the governor’s plea that people stay indoors. Rather, the pressure was an internal one – expressed as concern, or helpfulness, or in some cases, fear – felt in thousands of individual homes.”

      – Journalist Emily Badger, “The Psychology of a Citywide Lockdown”

      This is a test.

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      This is not a test of our commitment to basic hygiene or disaster preparedness or our ability to come together as a nation in times of crisis, although we’re not doing so well on any of those fronts.

      No, what is about to unfold over the next few weeks is a test to see how well we have assimilated the government’s lessons in compliance, fear and police state tactics; a test to see how quickly we’ll march in lockstep with the government’s dictates, no questions asked; and a test to see how little resistance we offer up to the government’s power grabs when made in the name of national security.

      Most critically of all, this is a test to see whether the Constitution—and our commitment to the principles enshrined in the Bill of Rights—can survive a national crisis and true state of emergency.

      Here’s what we know: whatever the so-called threat to the nation—whether it’s civil unrest, school shootings, alleged acts of terrorism, or the threat of a global pandemic in the case of COVID-19—the government has a tendency to capitalize on the nation’s heightened emotions, confusion and fear as a means of extending the reach of the police state.

      This coronavirus epidemic, which has brought China’s Orwellian surveillance out of the shadows and caused Italy to declare a nationwide lockdown, threatens to bring the American Police State out into the open on a scale we’ve not seen before.

      If and when a nationwide lockdown finally hits—if and when we are forced to shelter in place— if and when militarized police are patrolling the streets— if and when security checkpoints have been established— if and when the media’s ability to broadcast the news has been curtailed by government censors—if and when public systems of communication (phone lines, internet, text messaging, etc.) have been restricted—if and when those FEMA camps the government has been surreptitiously building finally get used as quarantine detention centers for American citizens—if and when military “snatch and grab” teams are deployed on local, state, and federal levels as part of the activated Continuity of Government plans to isolate anyone suspected of being infected with COVID-19—and if and when martial law is enacted with little real outcry or resistance from the public—then we will truly understand the extent to which the government has fully succeeded in recalibrating our general distaste for anything that smacks too overtly of tyranny.

      This is how it begins.

      The coronavirus epidemic may well be a legitimate health concern, but it’s the government’s response to it that worries me more in the long term.

      Based on the government’s track record and its long-anticipated plans for instituting martial law (using armed forces to solve domestic political and social problems) in response to a future crisis, there’s good reason to worry.

      This is not a government with a rosy view of the future.

      To the contrary, the government’s vision of the future is particularly ominous if a Pentagon training video created by the Army for U.S. Special Operations Command is anything to go by.

      Obtained by The Intercept through a FOIA request, the training video titled “Megacities: Urban Future, the Emerging Complexity” provides a chilling glimpse of what the government expects the world to look like in 2030, a world bedeviled by “criminal networks,” “substandard infrastructure,” “religious and ethnic tensions,” “impoverishment, slums,” “open landfills, over-burdened sewers,” a “growing mass of unemployed,” and an urban landscape in which the prosperous economic elite must be protected from the impoverishment of the have nots.

      Add health contagions to the mix, and we’re arrived there, ten years ahead of schedule.

      The training video is only five minutes long, but it says a lot about the government’s mindset and the way its views the citizenry. Even more troubling, however, is what this military video doesn’t say about the Constitution and the rights of the citizenry: nothing at all.

      In typical fashion, the government seems to consider the Constitution only when forced to do so. It complies with the dictates of the Constitution even less frequently. Indeed, the government’s efforts to systematically lock down the nation and shift us into martial law have not been stymied one iota by the restraints imposed upon it by the Constitution: when it’s not bulldozing its way through the Fourth Amendment, the government just sidesteps it (with the help of the courts).

      So what should you expect if the government decides to declare a national state of emergency and institute a nationwide lockdown?

      More of the same of what we’ve been seeing in recent years.

      After all, like the proverbial boiling frogs, the government has been gradually acclimating us to the specter of a police state for years now: Militarized police. Riot squads. Camouflage gear. Black uniforms. Armored vehicles. Mass arrests. Pepper spray. Tear gas. Batons. Strip searches. Surveillance cameras. Kevlar vests. Drones. Lethal weapons. Less-than-lethal weapons unleashed with deadly force. Rubber bullets. Water cannons. Stun grenades. Arrests of journalists. Crowd control tactics. Intimidation tactics. Brutality.

      This is how you prepare a populace to accept a police state willingly, even gratefully.

      You don’t scare them by making dramatic changes. Rather, you acclimate them slowly to their prison walls. Persuade the citizenry that their prison walls are merely intended to keep them safe and danger out. Desensitize them to violence, acclimate them to a military presence in their communities, and persuade them that only a militarized government can alter the seemingly hopeless trajectory of the nation.

      It’s happening already.

      The sight of police clad in body armor and gas masks, wielding semiautomatic rifles and escorting an armored vehicle through a crowded street, a scene likened to “a military patrol through a hostile city,” no longer causes alarm among the general populace.

      We’ve allowed ourselves to be acclimated to the occasional lockdown of government buildings, Jade Helm military drills in small towns so that special operations forces can get “realistic military training” in “hostile” territory, and  Live Active Shooter Drill training exercises, carried out at schools, in shopping malls, and on public transit, which can and do fool law enforcement officials, students, teachers and bystanders into thinking it’s a real crisis.

      Still, you can’t say we weren’t warned.

      Back in 2008, an Army War College report revealed that “widespread civil violence inside the United States would force the defense establishment to reorient priorities in extremis to defend basic domestic order and human security.” The 44-page report went on to warn that potential causes for such civil unrest could include another terrorist attack, “unforeseen economic collapse, loss of functioning political and legal order, purposeful domestic resistance or insurgency, pervasive public health emergencies, and catastrophic natural and human disasters.”

      In 2009, reports by the Department of Homeland Security surfaced that called on the government to subject right-wing and left-wing activists and military veterans to full-fledged pre-crime surveillance.

      Meanwhile, the government has been amassing an arsenal of military weapons, including hollow point bullets, for use domestically and equipping and training their “troops” for war. Even government agencies with largely administrative functions such as the Food and Drug Administration, Department of Veterans Affairs, and the Smithsonian have been acquiring body armor, riot helmets and shields, cannon launchers and police firearms and ammunition. In fact, there are now at least 120,000 armed federal agents carrying such weapons who possess the power to arrest.

      Rounding out this profit-driven campaign to turn American citizens into enemy combatants (and America into a battlefield) is a technology sector that has been colluding with the government to create a Big Brother that is all-knowing, all-seeing and inescapable. It’s not just the drones, fusion centers, license plate readers, stingray devices and the NSA that you have to worry about. You’re also being tracked by the black boxes in your cars, your cell phone, smart devices in your home, grocery loyalty cards, social media accounts, credit cards, streaming services such as Netflix, Amazon, and e-book reader accounts.

      All of this has taken place right under our noses, funded with our taxpayer dollars and carried out in broad daylight without so much as a general outcry from the citizenry.

      And then you have the government’s Machiavellian schemes for unleashing all manner of dangers on an unsuspecting populace, then demanding additional powers in order to protect “we the people” from the threats. Almost every national security threat that the government has claimed greater powers in order to fight—all the while undermining the liberties of the American citizenry—has been manufactured in one way or another by the government.

      We have made it way too easy for the government to lockdown the nation.

      Consider that it was seven years ago when the city of Boston was locked down while police carried out a military-style manhunt for suspects in the 2013 Boston Marathon explosion. 

      Six years ago, the city of Ferguson, Missouri, was locked down, with government officials deploying a massive SWAT team, an armored personnel carrier, men in camouflage pointing heavy artillery at the crowd, smoke bombs and tear gas to quell citizen unrest over a police shooting of a young, unarmed black man.

      Five years ago, the city of Baltimore was put under a military-enforced lockdown after civil unrest over police brutality erupted into rioting. More than 1,500 national guard troops were deployed while residents were ordered to stay inside their homes and put under a 10 pm curfew.

      Three years ago, it was Charlottesville, Va., population 50,000, that was locked down while government officials declared a state of emergency and enacted heightened security measures tantamount to martial law, despite the absence of any publicized information about credible threats to public safety.

      Fast forward to the present moment, with the world on the verge of a possible coronavirus pandemic, and growing numbers of Americans are already voluntarily sheltering in place in an effort to avoid falling ill.

      For those like myself who have studied emerging police states, the sight of any American city placed under martial law—its citizens essentially under house arrest (officials used the Orwellian phrase “shelter in place” in Boston to describe the mandatory lockdown), military-style helicopters equipped with thermal imaging devices buzzing the skies, tanks and armored vehicles on the streets, and snipers perched on rooftops, while thousands of black-garbed police swarmed the streets and SWAT teams carried out house-to-house searches—leaves us in a growing state of unease.

      Watching the events of the various lockdowns unfold, I couldn’t help but think of Nazi Field Marshal Hermann Goering’s remarks during the Nuremberg trials. As Goering noted:

      It is always a simple matter to drag people along whether it is a democracy, or a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. This is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same in every country.

      It does indeed work the same in every country.

      Unfortunately, it doesn’t take much for the American people to be terrorized into compliance by the government’s latest and greatest scare tactic, even if it means being stripped of one’s constitutional rights at a moment’s notice.

      This continual undermining of the rules that protect civil liberties has far-reaching consequences on a populace that not only remains ignorant about their rights but is inclined to sacrifice their liberties for phantom promises of safety.

      It may be that we’ve already gone too far down this road. However, don’t let this latest “crisis” cause you to panic to such an extent that you relinquish your fundamental right to make decisions for yourself and your loved ones and willingly surrender what remains of your freedoms.

      This too shall pass.

      Remember, a police state does not come about overnight.

      Yet as I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, no matter how it starts, with a questionable infringement justified in the name of safety or a nationwide lockdown to guard against a global pandemic, it always ends the same: by pushing us one step closer to a future in which the government has all the power and “we the people” have none. 


      Tyler Durden

      Tue, 03/10/2020 – 23:25

    • The Size Of America's Immigrant Electorate Doubled Since 2000
      The Size Of America’s Immigrant Electorate Doubled Since 2000

      With Super Tuesday swiftly approaching, Pew Research released some new data about the immigrant electorate in the United States.

      The U.S. had approximately 12 million foreign-born eligible voters back in 2000 and that increased to 22 million by 2018. It is expected to grow even further this year, hitting 23.2 million. That’s a 93 percent increase since the turn of the century. As Statista’s Niall McCarthy notes, by the time Americans head to the polls in November, 9.8 percent of eligible voters will be foreign born, a record high. The U.S. born eligible voter population has also grown since 2000 but at a slower place, rising 18 percent from 181 million to 215 million by 2018.

      Infographic: The Size Of The Immigrant Electorate Doubled Since 2000 | Statista

      You will find more infographics at Statista

      Two key developments are behind the trend.

      1. The nation’s immigrant population has increased from 9.6 million (5 percent of the population) to 45 million (13.9 percent of the population) since the Immigration and Nationality Act became law in 1965.

      2. The second is the rising share and number of immigrants becoming naturalized U.S. citizens.

      Some 7.2 million immigrants naturalized and became citizens between 2009 and 2019 alone.

      Today, people from Latin America (34 percent) and Asia (31 percent) make up the vast majority of immigrant eligible voters. Mexico comes first in terms of origin countries with 31 percent of the immigrant electorate or 3.5 million voters. The Philippines has the second highest absolute number with 1.4 million while India comes third with 1.4 million.


      Tyler Durden

      Tue, 03/10/2020 – 23:05

    • You Can Get Paid $10,000 To Move To Tulsa…Will Other Cities Follow?
      You Can Get Paid $10,000 To Move To Tulsa…Will Other Cities Follow?

      Submitted by Market Crumbs,

      When you think of Tulsa, Oklahoma, you may not think it’s becoming a hotbed for coworking spaces filled with young professionals working remotely. The landlocked city with a population of about 400,000 people is often referred to as the “Oil Capital of the World.”

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      Thanks to a program called Tulsa Remote, that’s exactly what is happening.

      The program, which is funded by the George Kaiser Family Foundation – an influential Tulsa-based philanthropy, is attracting people to Tulsa by paying them $10,000 in cash, providing desk space and offering other perks. The program is one of the first of its kind in the U.S., with similar ones implemented in Vermont, Alabama and Kansas.

      After seeing its population peak in 2016, Tulsa Remote is seen as a way to lure in talent to help reverse the declining population and boost the city’s economy.

      “The last few years have been the slowest population growth [in the state] since the late ‘80s, early ‘90s,” said Chad Wilkerson, branch executive of the Kansas City Fed’s Oklahoma City Branch office. “A good amount of it is driven by the downturn of the energy sector in 2014 and 2015, and people seeking jobs elsewhere.”

      Tulsa Remote is touting the city’s cost of living as its selling point to attract people from expensive coastal cities. The median home price in Tulsa is $157,200—43% below the national average, while the average rent for a 2 bedroom apartment is $658 per month.

      Tulsa Remote’s website even compares Tulsa’s cost of living to popular coastal cities that are facing affordability crises. Compared to San Francisco, the cost of living in Tulsa is 50% lower with the median home price 83% lower. Compared to Seattle, the cost of living and median home price in Tulsa are 38% and 68% lower, respectively. Compared to New York, the cost of living in Tulsa is a staggering 61% lower with the median home price 60% lower.

      “The citizens of Tulsa have invested substantial public funds to build the types of things that we believe make Tulsa a more appealing place for a new generation of workers,” said Tulsa Mayor G.T. Bynum.

      “And the Tulsa Remote program is really a great way to introduce the very kinds of workers that we’re hoping to appeal to, to the city that we’ve been building for the last decade to appeal to them.”

      Given some of the fastest-growing cities in the country are in states such as Texas, Arizona and Nevada, Tulsa Remote knows exactly what it’s doing by literally paying people to come work in a place that is significantly cheaper than most cities. Given Tulsa Remote is now accepting more workers than it did when it began in November 2018, it won’t be surprising to see more cities across the country introduce similar programs.m


      Tyler Durden

      Tue, 03/10/2020 – 22:45

    • US Home Flipping Soars Despite Profitability Plunging To 2011 Lows
      US Home Flipping Soars Despite Profitability Plunging To 2011 Lows

      While home-flipping activity soared to an eight-year high in 2019, profits cratered to an eight-year, according to a new report from Attom Data Solutions. 

      There were $32.5 billion in financed flips in 2019, up 21% from 2018 to a 13-year high. The $32.5 billion was the value of more than 245,864 single-family homes and condos that were flipped. 

      The number of homes flipped last year accounted for 6.2% of all homes sold across the country, an 8-year high. This is up from 5.8% of all homes sold in 2018. 

      With more and more Americans piling into the home-flipping game as mortgage rates decline, profit margins continued to deteriorate. The average flipper generated roughly $62,900 in gross profit last year, down 3.2% from $65,000 in 2018 and 6% from the peak of $66,899 in 2017.

      “Home-flipping profits across the US dropped again in 2019 as the business of buying and selling houses absorbed its worst year since the housing market was mired in the fallout from the Great Recession. This happened as the cost of buying properties continued to rise faster than gains on resale,” said Todd Teta, chief product officer at ATTOM Data Solutions.

      “That’s not to say that the home-flipping industry is tanking or losing its allure for investors because home flipping rates are higher than they’ve been in eight years. But profits did continue to decline again for investors,” Teta said. 

      The average gross flipping profit of $62,900 translated into a 40.6% ROI for flippers. This was down from 45.8% ROI in 2018 and down from 51.4% ROI in 2017. The latest returns have declined to levels not seen since 2011. 

      We noted in Sept 2019 that “the end is near” for home-flippers. Nobel laureate Robert Shiller sat down with Bloomberg late last summer and said, “I wouldn’t be surprised if home prices started falling, and it could be accompanied by a recession.”

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

      As there is simply no logic in why more people would get into the home-flipping game as profitability sags, maybe the jump in financed flips because of lax lending standards has ushered in a wave of dumb money trying to make a quick buck in a market that is waning. 


      Tyler Durden

      Tue, 03/10/2020 – 22:25

    • Saudi-Initiated All-Out Oil War Could Lead To Collapse Of Kingdom Itself
      Saudi-Initiated All-Out Oil War Could Lead To Collapse Of Kingdom Itself

      Submitted by South Front,

      Saudi Arabia launched an all-out oil war offering unprecedented discounts and flooding the market in an attempt to capture a larger share and defeat other oil producers. This “scorched earth” approach caused the biggest oil price fall since the war in the Persian Gulf in 1991.

      It all began on March 8 when Riyadh cut its April pricing for crude sales to Asia by $4-$6 a barrel and to the U.S. by $7 a barrel. The Kingdom expanded the discount for its flagship Arab Light crude to refiners in northwest Europe by $8 a barrel offering it at $10.25 a barrel under the Brent benchmark. In comparison, Russia’s Urals crude trades at a discount of about $2 a barrel under Brent. These actions became an attack at the ability of Russia to sell crude in Europe. The Russian ruble immediately plummeted almost 10% falling to its lowest level in more than four years.

      Another side that suffered from Saudi actions is Iran. The Islamic country is facing a strong US sanctions pressure and often selling its oil via complex schemes and with notable discounts already.

      Saudi Arabia is planning to increase its output above 10 million barrel per day. Currently, it pumps 9.7 million barrels per day, but has the capacity to ramp up to 12.5 million barrels per day. According to OPEC and Saudi sources of The Wall Street Journal, Riyadh’s actions are part of an “aggressive campaign” against Moscow.

      The formal pretext of this campaign became the inability of the OPEC+ (a meeting of representatives of member states of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC members) to extend output agreements.

      Saudi Arabia was seeking up to 1.5 million b/d in further oil production cuts, but this proposal was rejected by Russia. After the inability to reach the new OPEC+ deal, Saudi Arabia became the frist and only power that took aggressive actions on the market. However, it is hard to imagine that Saudi Arabia would go for such an escalation without at least an order or approval from Washington.

      This came amid the detention of two senior members of the Saudi royal family – Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz, the younger brother of King Salman, and Mohammed bin Nayef, the king’s nephew – on March 7. This development took place just ahead of the Saudi offensive on the oil market, and was likely a tip of the ongoing undercover struggle between the pro-US and pro-national factions of the Saudi elites; and the pro-US bloc seems to have the upper hand in this conflict.

      In this case, the real goal of the Saudi campaign is not only to secure larger share of the oil market and punish Moscow for its unwillingness to accept the proposed OPEC+ deal, but to deliver a powerful blow to Washington’s geopolitical opponents: Russia and Iran. Pro-Western and anti-government forces existing in both Russia and Iran would try to exploit this situation to destabilize the internal situation in the countries.

      On the other hand, Saudi Arabia may soon find out that its actions have backfired. Such economic and geopolitical games amid the acute conflict with Iran, military setbacks in Yemen and the increasing regional standoff with the UAE could cost too much for the Kingdom itself.

      If the oil prices fall any further and reach $20 per barrel, this will lead to unacceptable economic losses for Russia and Iran, and they could and will likely opt to use nonmarket tools of influencing the Saudi behavior. These options include the increasing support to Yemen’s Houthis with intelligence, weapons, money, and even military advisers, that will lead to the resumption of Houthi strikes on Saudi oil infrastructure.

      On top of these, the Saudi leadership may suddenly find that the internal situation in the Kingdom is being worsened by large-scale protests rapidly turning into an open civil conflict.

      Such a scenario is no secret for international financial analysts. On March 8, shares of Saudi state oil company Aramco slumped below their initial public offering (IPO) and closed 9.1% lower. On March 9, it continued the fall plunging another 10%.  There appears to be a lack of buyers. The risks are too obvious.

      At the same time, the range of possible US actions in support of Saudi Arabia in the event of such an escalation is limited by the ongoing presidential campaign. Earlier, President Donald Trump demonstrated that a US military base could become a target of direct missile strike and Washington will not order a direct military action in response. Taking into account other examples of the US current approach towards non-Israeli allies, Riyadh should not expect any real support from its American allies in this standoff.


      Tyler Durden

      Tue, 03/10/2020 – 22:05

    • "Dead Bat Bounce" Dies – Dow Futs Down Over 500 Pts, Treasury Yields Are Tumbling
      “Dead Bat Bounce” Dies – Dow Futs Down Over 500 Pts, Treasury Yields Are Tumbling

      Well that re-escalated quickly…

      A disappointing lack of detail -despite promises of unlimited spending – appears to have upset the market’s vibe from a day of panic-buying to very technical level of resistance.

      Dow futures are now down 550 points…

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      And 10Y Treasury yields are down 12bps…

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      Is anyone really surprised?


      Tyler Durden

      Tue, 03/10/2020 – 21:49

    • Coronavirus Threatens To Crash The Gig Economy  
      Coronavirus Threatens To Crash The Gig Economy  

      Millions of Americans are working in the gig-economy could soon discover their side hustle jobs, such as being an Uber driver, Amazon delivery driver, and or completing odd tasks for Handyman, could come to a halt (temporarily) as the Covid-19 outbreak disrupts local economies across the country. 

      We’ve noted in the past, more than 50 million Americans, or about 44% of all US workers, aged 18-64, are considered low-wage and low-skilled, have insurmountable debts (with limited savings), including auto, student, and credit card debts, are working in the gig-economy via side hustles and are most vulnerable to job losses. Many of these folks are also employed in the services sector, another corner of the job market that is high-risk of job loss if the virus outbreak starts forcing consumers to pull back on discretionary spending. 

      The dark side of the gig economy could soon be realized as virus impacts are starting to mount, especially in West Coast cities. Millions of gig economy workers are low paid and lack proper health insurance. Some of these folks have barebone policies that require them to pay the first few thousand dollars of medical bills. 

      The obvious risk to the gig economy so far is cities shutting down that forces a decline in the need for certain services, many of these folks don’t have a financial safety net nor health care for if they contract the virus. It’s simple: American workers aren’t prepared for a pandemic. 

      “Tales of sky-high bills are buzzing in the media. A Miami man says he received a $3,270 bill for a voluntary coronavirus test; an American evacuated from the outbreak’s epicentre in Wuhan China received a $3,918 bill for mandatory quarantine in San Diego,” said the Financial Times. 

      As cases and deaths soar in Seattle this week, the first views of the gig economy and services sector grinding to a halt is in downtown Seattle. The area has transformed into a ghost town, as the lack of tourists and people quarantined at home has created a demand shock for the local economy.

      Lakshman Achuthan, the co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, told CBS This Morning that further virus impacts on American cities could put a squeeze on household budgets and lead to a decline in discretionary spending. 

      CNBC explains that gig economy workers aren’t just some of the most exposed people to contract the virus, they also have no safety net as regular jobs do, such as sick days, health care, and covered expenses. CNBC’s Deirdre Bosa said some gig economy workers have already seen their business halved in the last several weeks due to virus fears.

      Putting this all together, as cases and deaths soar in cities across the country, local economies could grind to a halt, and this could crash the gig economy and every millennial in it, who, frankly, many of which aren’t prepared for financial Armageddon unless they read ZeroHedge.


      Tyler Durden

      Tue, 03/10/2020 – 21:45

    • Wikipedia Slashes Spanish Flu Death Rate
      Wikipedia Slashes Spanish Flu Death Rate

      Authored by Catte Black via Off-Guardian.org,

      We’ve had a couple of people take issue with us regarding the case fatality rate (CFR) of the 1918 Spanish Flu. Citing Wikipedia and the CDC we gave that rate as being between 10-20%. A couple of commenters, however, insisted the actual CFR was 2-3%, and this led us to look further.

      What we found was quite interesting.

      This is the pre-February 22 2020 opening paragraph of the ‘Mortality’ section on the Wiki page for the Spanish flu (our emphasis):

      The global mortality rate from the 1918–1919 pandemic is not known, but an estimated 10% to 20% of those who were infected died (case-fatality ratio). About a third of the world population was infected, and 3% to 6% of the entire global population of over 1800 million[51] died.[2]

      This is how the same paragraph reads now:

      It is estimated that one third of the global population was infected,[2] and the World Health Organization estimates that 2–3% of those who were infected died (case-fatality ratio).

      That’s quite a big change in a pretty short time.

      <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

      What’s going on? Why is the CFR suddenly being downgraded so dramatically?

      The WHO report they use as a source is not about the Spanish Flu, but simply mentions it in passing. It does indeed say 2-3% of those infected died, but gives no source for this, and also claims this represents 20-50 million people.

      The trouble with that is the higher range of this estimate (50 million as 2% of total cases) gives a figure of 2.5 billion total cases. Which is higher than the entire population of the world at the time!(1.8 billion).

      So something is clearly amiss.

      Worse still, the WHO is the only source we have found so far that claims a death toll of 20 million. Most sources, such as the CDC (and see here), broadly agree that between 50 million and 100 million people died of the Spanish Flu (although one recent study wildly differs, see below). In order for 50-100 million deaths to be 2-3% of total cases there would have had to be 2.5 billion – 5 billion cases.

      Obviously totally impossible.

      Clearly there is something wrong with that newly revised figure of 2-3%. The only way to make it work is to also dramatically revise downward the number of deaths. And indeed there’s evidence of editors trying to do that on Wiki with someone citing a December 2018 study which used a controversial “new methodology” to establish a mortality figure of just 17 million. Given that this number has previously been estimated for India alone, this is remarkable revisionism.

      Now, of course, there are debates about numbers of infections versus fatalities in every case study in epidemiology. It’s not an exact science. It’s fluid. Of course, estimates will vary and errors will be made and corrected. There’s more to be said about the inherent uncertainties in these cases, and we are currently talking to a respected virologist with the intention of covering the question further in future. Maybe the previous estimates of infection and fatality were too high. Maybe there is a rational case to be made for lowering them.

      But is that what we are seeing on Wiki?

      We all know Wikipedia is a micro-managed propaganda organ, so the fact its page on the Spanish Flu began a huge uptick of edits in December 2019, rising steadily until February 2020, and that the bulk of these edits seem concerned with – subtly and overtly – downgrading the severity of the 1918 pandemic has to be of interest.

      Why the sudden decision to vastly downgrade the estimated CFR for the 1918 pandemic and source to a rather obscure WHO article that doesn’t even focus on that issue? And, more importantly, why does this extreme downgrade still exist on the page even when editors are pointing out the impossibility of the figures?

      At least this new editorial policy by Wiki is well-timed for those looking to stoke fear, and unfortunate for those trying to bring reason to bear. It allows the media and others to cite the newly downgraded 2-3% CFR as evidence that COVID19 is as dangerous as, or more dangerous than, the Spanish Flu and will end up killing millions. That’s some nice clickbait right there.

      Is it just human confusion? Maybe.

      There is a report by a virologist, and cited by the CDC, that confirms the heretofore commonly accepted 500 million cases and 50-100 million deaths and adds this is a CFR of ‘over2.5%’. Which of course it is. It’s a CFR of 10-20%, as he would be the first to recognise. And 10-20% is over 2.5%.

      Maybe his slightly ambiguous wording has led people astray? Maybe people consulting his work, as many do, including the Wiki editors, have taken ‘over 2.5%’ to mean just over, or even to mean exactly2.5%? Maybe that’s all this is.

      Maybe.

      But at any rate, the error, whatever it is, wherever it came from, isn’t ours. We didn’t make up the 10-20% CFR of Spanish Flu. It was the standard assessment until very, very recently. It still exists, though somewhat hidden now by ambiguous wording and confusion.


      Tyler Durden

      Tue, 03/10/2020 – 21:25

    • "The Math Is Now Clear" – Super Tuesday 2 Primaries Dominated By Biden
      “The Math Is Now Clear” – Super Tuesday 2 Primaries Dominated By Biden

      Update (21115ET): It appears it’s all over bar the crying for Bernie Sanders as Joe Biden sweeps the early states on Super Tuesday 2. The former vice-president has dominated the socialist in Mississippi, Missouri, and now Michigan:

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      Results

      • Michigan (125 delegates): Winner: Biden.

      • Missouri (68 delegates): Winner: Biden.

      • Mississippi (36 delegates): Winner: Biden.

      Notably, despite all the snowflakery, turnout among younger voters, according to exit polls, was down in Missouri and Mississippi from four years ago.

      As 538’s Nate Silver noted, the polling swing toward Biden is probably the fastest in the history of the primaries.

      We have him gaining 36.2 points in national polls over the past 14 days. The previous record is John Kerry, who gained 32.3 points from 1/21 to 2/24/04 in our retrospective national average.

      On the question of electability, CNN exit polls showed that 80% of voters thought Biden was the candidate that could beat Donald Trump, versus 17% for Sanders.

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

      The Trump campaign has issued a statement on tonight, via Brad Parscale:

      “It has never mattered who the Democrat nominee turns out to be, and now that there are only two options left, it is clear that they are two sides of the same coin. The Democrat candidate for president will be running on a big government socialist agenda regardless of the name on the ballot. It is also clear that the Democrat establishment has rallied around the confused Joe Biden in an effort to deny the nomination to Bernie Sanders. Either way, President Trump is on an unstoppable drive toward re-election.”

      *  *  *

      Six states are holding primaries today – with Michigan awarding the most delegates, followed by Washington State, Missouri, Mississippi, Idaho and North Dakota. Results are expected to begin rolling in around 8 p.m. Eastern time.

      • Michigan allocates 125 pledged delegates to the convention, making up 3.5% of the total allocated throughout the process. Polls close in most of the state of 8 p.m. ET. In four of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula counties located in the Central Time Zone, polls just closed at 8 p.m. Central and 9 p.m. ET.

      • Mississippi allocates 36 pledged delegates to the convention. Polls closed at 7 p.m. local time and 8 p.m. ET.

      • North Dakota allocates 14 pledged delegates to the convention. Polls in the state’s Firehouse Caucuses closed at 7 p.m. Central time and 8 p.m. ET.

      • Missouri allocates 68 pledged delegates to the convention. Polls closed at 7 p.m. local time and 8 p.m. ET.

      • Idaho allocates 20 pledged delegates to the convention. Polls close at 8 p.m. local time, 10 p.m. ET.

      • Washington, which allocates 89 pledged delegates to the convention, conducts its elections entirely by mail. Voters must either mail in a ballot postmarked by election day or drop off their ballot in person in their county elections office no later than 8 p.m. local time on the day of the election.

      Former VP Joe Biden has 664 delegates under his belt going into tonight’s voting, while Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) trails with 573. After Sanders’ lost an early delegate lead on Super Tuesday, the Vermont democratic socialist needs a big win in Michigan to put him back in the game with its 125 delegates. If that doesn’t happen, it’s curtains for Bernie.

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      As the NY Post notes, Sanders won Michigan in 2016 in a stunning victory over Hillary Clinton by 18,000 votes. That said, “there are doubts Sanders can recreate that victory, with speculation rampant that Michigan this time could sound the death knell for his campaign.“

      The reality of the situation is not lost on PredictIt betters, who have Biden sharply in the lead as the likely Democratic nominee.

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      Stay tuned for results as they roll in…


      Tyler Durden

      Tue, 03/10/2020 – 21:16

    • "That Would Stink!" – IOC, Japan Face Billions In Losses As Olympic Cancellation Concerns Go Global
      “That Would Stink!” – IOC, Japan Face Billions In Losses As Olympic Cancellation Concerns Go Global

      Several weeks after Japan started canceling sport and cultural events amid the broadening of the Covid-19 outbreak, Japanese Olympic organizers discussed on Tuesday the possibility the Games could be postponed.

      Haruyuki Takahashi, one of the Tokyo 2020 organizing committee’s executive board members, said the Games could be delayed for one or two years. Takahashi said canceling the Games would have significant financial ramifications. 

      “I don’t think the Games could be canceled. It’d be a delay,” Takahashi told The Wall Street Journal. “The International Olympic Committee (IOC) would be in trouble if there’s a cancellation. American TV rights alone provide them with a huge amount.”

      Kazuhiro Tateda, an infectious disease expert of the Japanese government, said the fast-spreading virus could be sticking around a lot longer than many have anticipated, despite the upcoming warmer season. 

      “Unlike the flu that disappears with warmer weather, the response to the new coronavirus, I think, will have to continue for half a year or a year,” Tateda told NHK on Tuesday.

      For their part, the International Olympic Committee and local organizers say the games are on, but the clock is ticking…

      “From what we know from numerous other mass-gathering events including sporting events, it is very easy to spread diseases worldwide from such events – from meningitis to Zika,” Dr. Ali Khan. an epidemiologist and dean of the College of Public Health at the University of Nebraska, told the AP.

      “Besides welcoming athletes and spectators with their tiny microbes, there is and may be ongoing disease in Japan.”

      To safeguard against any unexpected events, such as a continuation of the virus crisis that could extend into the July period when the Games start, the IOC can postpone the two-week event and float expenses through 2022. The IOC has, in the past, bought an insurance policy on the Games that will help cover financial losses associated with a delay or cancellation. 

      The IOC’s annual reports show it paid almost $14.4 million in an insurance premium to protect against canceling the 2016 Rio Olympics and $12.8 million for a policy to cover the 2018 Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea.

      But, it is unclear if such a policy is in place for Tokyo as when IOC President Thomas Bach was asked last week after an executive board meeting if the insurance premium has risen to as much as $20 million for a Tokyo policy, he replied: “I don’t know, it wasn’t discussed at this EB.”

      Although it would be shocking if they had not.

      Not only would a cancellation of the Games would cause major disruptions to the international sporting calendar, it would have severe financial implications not just for the IOC, but for Japan and the world.

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      As AP reports, Tokyo is officially spending $12.6 billion to organize the Olympics, although a national government audit office says it’s at least twice that much. Andrew Zimbalist, a professor of economics at Smith College in Massachusetts, said construction cost for one venue in Japan was $1.43 billion. The local organizing committee budget of $5.6 billion is private money, with the rest coming from Japanese taxpayers. About $1 billion in the local operating budget is to come from ticket sales, which would be lost if the games go ahead without fans in empty stadiums.

      “Some combination of the IOC, the broadcasters, and the insurers will lose big,” Victor Matheson, a sports economist at the College of the Holy Cross in Worcester, Massachusetts, said.

      “That loss is coming out of someone’s pocket depending on how all of the contracts are written.”

      Matheson adds that athletes are the most vulnerable from the financial shock:

      “For athletes, their career length isn’t long and in many sports success in the Olympics is your one shot at a financial return.”

      Aside from government officials coffers, athletes, coaches and sports officials, local organizers, and fans will be gutted too…

      “I’ve heard things about possibly the Olympics being canceled, and I think that would stink,” J’den Cox, a two-time world champion wrestler and an Olympic bronze medalist, told AP News.

       “It would probably break everybody’s heart if that were to happen.”

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      The AP notes that 73% of IOC’s income is derived from selling broadcast rights. NBC made up at least half of those broadcast payments in the last Olympic cycle. Another 18% of the IOC income is from selling sponsorships. NBC parent company Comcast said its contract with the IOC and insurance would allow it to escape losses if cancelation was seen. However, NBC would lose hundreds of million dollars in ad money.

      While there’s billions of dollars on the line, if it is with the IOC, Japan, broadcasters, sponsors, etc., there’s a strong possibility that at this point in time, if the virus continues to spread across the world, the Games would likely be delayed.

      For now, an Irish bookmaker is showing odds leaning slightly toward the Olympics not going forward. Odds are 4-6 it will not open on July 24 in Tokyo, and even that it will.


      Tyler Durden

      Tue, 03/10/2020 – 21:05

    • And Then Came The Lawsuits: Pandemic In A Litigious Society
      And Then Came The Lawsuits: Pandemic In A Litigious Society

      Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

      This is the upside of hyper-litigiousness: prevention is prioritized as the most effective means of limiting future liability.

      Never mind prevention or vaccines; the big question is “who can we sue after this blows over to rake in millions of dollars?” Yes, this is pathetic, tragic, perverse and evil, but that’s reality in a hyper-litigious society like the U.S.

      Many people are struck by the apparent over-reaction of Corporate America to the Covid-19 threat, but this is the only rational response in a hyper-litigious society: the number one priority in a hyper-litigious society is to limit liability. Everything–and yes, we mean everything–flows from this obsessive concern with limiting future liability.

      Imagine the lawsuit brought by an employee of Corporate America who could have worked from home but was ordered by her employer to come to the workplace, and who was subsequently infected by the virus.

      The corporation’s defense team would naturally claim there was no evidence the employee caught the virus at work, but alas, one employee in the building was confirmed as a carrier of Covid-19, so that defense won’t work: the employee could have been infected by this other employee in the workplace, and lacking any solid evidence to the contrary, it’s clear the company failed to protect its employees from exposure to the virus by forcing employees to work in a virus-infected work place when they could have worked from home.

      By forcing an employee who could have worked from home to come to the office, the company is liable for damages. Multiply this case by thousands, and it’s easy to see why Corporate America has proactively moved so aggressively to a “work at home” policy and why corporate legal, HR and risk management teams are quickly issuing press releases and internal memos stressing all the measures the company is taking to lower the risks for employees and customers.

      Future court cases will likely come down to basic tests, such as: did the corporation act promptly, prudently and in good faith? Did it pursue its preventative policies rigorously, or in a piecemeal, slapdash manner? Did the management quickly correct flawed execution, or did management fail to provide the necessary oversight, accountability and problem-solving to address the flawed execution of preventative measures? Did the company follow accepted industry protocols and standards? Did it make every available practical effort to reduce the risks to employees and customers?

      If the measures are practical, coherent and applied consistently, this is a good thing. In prevention against a highly contagious virus, half-measures and window-dressing will not be effective: the execution of preventative measures must be 100%.

      Thus it would be prudent to instruct all employees to wear masks, wash their hands often, conduct digital-online meetings, limit company gatherings, hire crews to regularly disinfect company facilities, etc. Companies that fail to impose and promote preventative policies and execute preventative measures uniformly will be opening Pandora’s Door to lawsuits that could stretch on for years.

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      This is the upside of hyper-litigiousness: prevention is prioritized as the most effective means of limiting future liability. The downside–extortionist lawsuits seeking quick out-of-court settlements as the cheaper way out of costly litigation–is an ugly reality of conducting commerce in America. But the upside–practical preventative policies that impose “social distancing” and high standards of personal hygiene and the regular disinfecting of common areas–could have a profound impact in lowering the spread of the virus.

      *  *  *

      My recent books:

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      *  *  *

      If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.


      Tyler Durden

      Tue, 03/10/2020 – 20:45

    • Cheap Flights Bonanza & Near Empty Airlines – Chicago To San Francisco: $137
      Cheap Flights Bonanza & Near Empty Airlines – Chicago To San Francisco: $137

      Amid the broader travel, hotel, aviation, tourism and cruise line carnage, airlines are canceling domestic flights left and right while waiving cancellation fees. 

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      And as expected, ticket prices are plummeting given that as the International Air Transport Association has predicted demand for global air travel looks to decline in a first since 2009 over coronavirus fears, resulting in a potential loss of up to $113 billion in 2020 in revenue for the industry. Covid-19 is slashing airfares worldwide, as this brief list of examples suggests, culled from around the web: 

      • New York to Miami: $51
      • Chicago to San Francisco: $137
      • New York to London: under $500 
      • New York-Paris Return: $285
      • In China: Shanghai to Chongqing for merely 29 yuan, or $4.10

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      Nearly empty British Airways fligtht from London to Milan, via ABC News.

      Flyers have over the past week posted images of cabins nearly completely devoid of passengers. 

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      The International Air Transport Association (IATA) predicts a devastating year for the industry:

      IATA now sees 2020 global revenue losses for the passenger business of between $63 billion (in a scenario where COVID-19 is contained in current markets with over 100 cases as of 2 March) and $113 billion (in a scenario with a broader spreading of COVID-19). 

      This after airline share prices have already fallen nearly 25% since the start of the outbreak.

      A review of the price plunge in Forbes says the following:

      The coronavirus is slashing airfares worldwide. Currently there are some great deals to be had for flying between the U.S and Europe. Tap in New York Paris return for example on Google Flights and it turns up startlingly low prices with leading airlines, American, United, Delta and Air France, for as low as $284 round trip, flying on April 5 to April 15. Go direct to Delta’s website and the picture is the same, with the lowest return fare for the same dates of $285.

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      Currently the deals site Airfarewatchdog.com reveals price drops of $26-$49 for a number of popular US city to city trips.


      Tyler Durden

      Tue, 03/10/2020 – 20:25

    • Only 4 Shale Drillers Are Still Profitable At $31 Oil
      Only 4 Shale Drillers Are Still Profitable At $31 Oil

      Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

      Most shale oil wells drilled in the United States are unprofitable at current oil prices, Rystad Energy has warned. The Norwegian consultancy said, as quoted by Bloomberg, that drilling new wells would be loss-making for more than 100 companies.

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      Just four shale drillers – Exxon, Chevron, Occidental, and Crownquest – can drill new wells at a profit at $31 per barrel of West Texas Intermediate.

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      The problem is the nature of shale oil wells: while quick to start production and expand it, they are also quick to run out of oil, so drillers need to keep drilling new ones to maintain production, which is what U.S. shale patch players have been doing for years.

      However, this has affected investor returns, Bloomberg notes, and now it is affecting spending plans.

      “Companies should not be burning capital to be keeping the production base at an unsustainable level,” Tom Loughrey from shale oil data company Friezo Loughrey Oil Well Partners LLC told Bloomberg.

      “This is swing production — and that means you’re going to have to swing down.”

      The situation is more positive for drilled but uncompleted wells, according to Rystad. The consultancy said yesterday that as much as 80 percent of DUCs in the U.S. shale patch have a breakeven price of less than $25 per barrel of WTI. Yet this is dangerously close to current prices.

      “If nobody blinks in this supply war, prices may have to go this low in order to properly reduce production and get supply-demand back in balance,” Rystad’s head of shale research, Artem Abramov, said in the news release.

      “This could turn out to be one of the greatest shocks ever faced by the oil industry, as coronavirus containment measures will add to the headache of producers fighting for market share. And OPEC has clearly stated that it won’t be coming to the rescue in the second quarter of 2020,” he also said. 

      “Even the best operators will have to reduce activity, it’s almost impossible to be fully cash flow neutral this year with this price decline” he concluded.

      Even before this, America’s shale producers already had a profitability problem. It just got a lot worse.


      Tyler Durden

      Tue, 03/10/2020 – 20:05

    • Coachella Postponed Due To Coronavirus, Organizers Offer Refunds
      Coachella Postponed Due To Coronavirus, Organizers Offer Refunds

      The Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival in Indio, California was postponed on Tuesday afternoon as global cases of COVID-19 top 118,000. Organizers moved the April 10-12 and April 17-19 dates to October 9-11 and 16-18 on the hopes that the coronavirus scourge will be behind us by then.

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      “At the direction of the County of Riverside and local health authorities, we must sadly confirm the rescheduling of Coachella and Stagecoach due to COVID-19 concerns,” the organizers said in a statement. “All purchases for the April dates will be honored for the rescheduled October dates. Purchasers will be notified by Friday, March 13 on how to obtain a refund if they are unable to attend.”

      The cancellation comes after over 18,000 people signed a Change.org petition calling for the event’s cancellation in order to “protect ourselves and California residents by do the right thing before it’s too late.”

      Headliners include Rage Against The Machine, Frank Ocean and Travis Scott, who are reportedly all on board for the new date, according to TMZ. 

      Maybe Elon will fire up the Berlin Gigafactory cave in the meantime?

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

      Looks like attendees will just have to wait for their annual dose of herpies.

      At present there are 175 documented cases in California and 2 deaths according to the New York Times. 

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      Top 10 US states with coronavirus, via NYT

       


      Tyler Durden

      Tue, 03/10/2020 – 19:45

    • Bank Of Japan Buys Record Amount Of ETFs, Admits 'Paper Losses', Plans Program Expansion
      Bank Of Japan Buys Record Amount Of ETFs, Admits ‘Paper Losses’, Plans Program Expansion

      Having blown over two trillion yen since October in purchasing stocks (ETFs) in the open market to “support Japan’s economy,” markets are rife with speculation the Band of Japan (BoJ) could pledge next week to buy ETFs at a faster pace than the current commitment to do so by roughly 6 trillion yen ($58.12 billion) per year.

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      Following pressure from Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe,

      “Markets are making nervous movements amid uncertainty over the global economic outlook. Based on agreements made among G7 and G20 nations, the government will work closely with the BOJ and authorities of other countries to respond appropriately,” Abe said in a meeting with ruling party executives on Tuesday.

      Reuters  reports that such a step is among options the central bank may consider if it approaches the ceiling as a result of aggressive purchases, according to sources familiar with the BOJ’s thinking.

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      In a somewhat surprising moment of transparency for the Japanese central bank, BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told parliament the BoJ had bought a cumulative 2.04 trillion yen worth of ETFs since October last year.

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      Kuroda also revealed the BoJ’s own estimate showed its holdings of ETFs may incur paper losses once Tokyo’s Nikkei stock average falls below 19,000 – 19,500. The Nikkei stood around 19,665 on Tuesday after briefly slipping below 19,000 in morning trade.

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      In accordance with Abe’s wishes, since BoJ issued an emergency statement on March 2 pledging to offer ample liquidity via market operations and asset buying, Kuroda has been accelerating the pace of ETF buying.

      The BoJ bought 100.2 billion yen ($979 million) on Monday, matching a record pace of purchases made twice last week.

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      Eiji Maeda, the BOJ’s executive director, said the central bank was scrutinising daily price moves and taking appropriate action to stabilise markets.

      “We of course won’t hesitate to take additional measures if needed, depending on future market developments,” he said.

      So this clearly failed plan – of buying stocks directly in the market – has done nothing for the economy or the people’s wealth and is now actually destroying central bank capital…

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      But they believe they should just do more of it… and this is the same shit that is now being casually discussed in US banking circles.

      Einstein would be proud.


      Tyler Durden

      Tue, 03/10/2020 – 19:25

    Digest powered by RSS Digest

    Mar 10

    Today’s News 10th March 2020

    • On International Women's Day, Topless French Protesters Blast "Patriarchal Pandemic"
      On International Women’s Day, Topless French Protesters Blast “Patriarchal Pandemic”

      While most coronavirus-related headlines bring disappointing news about new infections and deaths, every once and a while, we get a respite from the constant gloom and doom.

      On Monday, that brief reprieve came courtesy of Femen, the infamous international feminist group that has a very specific – and memorable – MO: Its members pose topless, often with their ‘message’ scrawled sloppily painted across their chests.

      As the coronavirus spreads across the world, it appears the ‘Women’s Rights’ campaigners – who have never set foot in Saudi Arabia, as far as we are aware, preferring to protest only in relatively open western countries – have tweaked their methods slightly: Armed with rubber gloves, purple smoke and exposed breasts, the ‘Femen’ went out to symbolically cleanse Paris streets of the “patriarchy virus”, before being shooed away by the police.

      The performance was timed to coincide with International Women’s Day on Sunday, which, as several twitter wits noted, happened to fall on the “shortest day of the year, the only day with 23 hours in it thanks to the beginning of Daylight Saving Time (which is now officially sexist).”

      Some 40 protesters wearing plastic coveralls, rubber gloves and protective glasses – but nothing on their chests bar slogans in accordance with their whole schtick – mobbed the Paris’ Place de la Concorde.

      Chanting feminist slogans, they fired purple smoke sticks and doused the ground using portable sprayers to wash away the patriarchy virus as they said they were more interested in fighting the “epidemic” of violence against women (for context: violent crimes against women across the world are at their lowest levels in history).

      But we’re glad to see the femen are finally doing their part to help inject a bit of levity into the unceasing torrent of misery.


      Tyler Durden

      Tue, 03/10/2020 – 02:45

    • Migrant Crisis 2.0: Who's To Blame And What's To Be Done?
      Migrant Crisis 2.0: Who’s To Blame And What’s To Be Done?

      Authored by Tim Kirby via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

      It now looks like Europe may be moving towards Migrant Crisis 2.0 as footage from the Greek border is pouring in over the Mainstream Media. However the key player to pay attention to is Turkey, they may have started the new migration problem and thus they may be the ones who can end it.

      The original Migrant Crisis at the start of the Syrian Civil War in 2011 was portrayed as an organic consequence of events that happened on their own. The Mainstream Media pushed hard to sell the idea of the migrants as victims of either circumstance or Assad, who deserved to get everything they want from the wealthy West.

      However, this time around the narrative is surprisingly different (at least for the moment) as Migrant Crisis 2.0 is not really getting much media push, in fact the opposite appears to be happening, possibly due to the fact that Erdogan made it so bluntly clear that with his decision to allow migrants to leave Turkey is directly connected to his failures in Syria. If he doesn’t get a piece of Syria, then Europe will.

      For example Foreign Policy frames the move as “Turkey’s decision to allow migrants to cross into the European Union was intended to pressure EU leaders to come to Ankara’s aid against Bashar al-Assad”.

       The Independent went with the headline “Turkey says it has allowed more than 100,000 migrants and refugees across its border with Greece”.

      This is not the narrative of waves of poor victims coming to Europe, but instead the tale of the Turks using human beings as pawns of influence. Even the Hyper-Liberal Cultural Masochist den that is NPR positioned the event as an attempt for victims to “Leave Turkey For Europe, But This Time The Gate Is Closed” which is surprisingly soft. It is almost like NPR is hinting at some sort of logic like “well we should let them in but we can’t, I guess it’s bad, but whatever”.

      What a difference a decade and a resurgent Turkey make as this migrant narrative has completely shifted. Furthermore, it is important to note that according to RT, the footage of the poor migrants trying to find peace and happiness in Europe, while being attacked by Greek authorities comes from Turkish sources. Essentially, the Turks who were able to hold all these migrants perfectly fine for years (since a deal was struck with the EU in 2016) have now, all of a sudden, decided they can’t do it anymore, releasing them into the wild. This also by a stroke of luck happened at the exact moment when NATO denied help to Ankara in their fight for Idlib partially via proxies against Assad and his Russian pals.

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      Even with the best of intentions massive waves of migrants are unlikely to be loyal to Europe thus turning into a subconscious fifth-column of foreign interest.

      This is the point in an article where one might get the feeling that this is a hit piece against the Turks but it is far from it. The Turks are the ones making the moves now but they did not start the Syrian crisis, they just capitalized on it.

      Firstly, the Civil War in Syria was started by Washington. This mess was started by the Obama era with a massive demonization campaign of Assad all over the Mainstream Media.

      Secondly, it is the EU’s welfare state policies that send a message to the world that “if you sneak in, you are entitled to live like kings for free” that attracts the bottom of global society to immigrate to Europe. EU law/policies are really what created the Migrant Crisis, if they were to “man up” and have real borders and reasonable attitudes towards immigration (as well as dump the welfare state for immigrants) there would be zero problems.

      So to be clear the Turks are just taking advantage of conditions created by Europeans and if I were born a Turk and were in Erdogan’s place I would have done many of the same moves. We shouldn’t blame others for jumping on the opportunities that we ourselves create for them. Yes, Turkey is now fanning the flames but they never started the fire.

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      So what could or should the strategies be for the various players going forward in Migrant Crisis 2.0?

      Greece

      This country finds itself as the farpost of Europe in terms of a migrant invasion. The Greek economy is still in ruins and the nation has definitely not been a beneficiary of EU status. If the Greeks actually have any political will of their own to take action, then they unfortunately need to “go hard” on any attempts to violate their borders.

      Greece has nothing to lose but its Euro chains so they may as well militantly react to any attempts to violate their territory to send a message to Turkey that “this won’t work”. This may sound violent, but allowing enough migrants into your country to the point that it destabilizes, would lead to vastly more violence. A few unpleasant pieces of footage from Greece will make thousands of potential migrants think twice against storming a border unarmed with an army sitting on the other side of the barbed wire.

      If Greece did become like a real country and actually protect its borders it would be demonized by Brussels, but then again so what? What are they going to do, kick them out of the EU? If so then that would be a boon for the average Greek. If Greece does actually have sovereign control of itself and can take action then Brussels has no real means to punish them for said actions, and any punishments would only push Greece towards an independence that it needs anyways. Harsh border control of Greece is a win win for anyone except the most delusional EU enthusiasts in Athens.

      Turkey

      In many ways the Turks are doing the right things to restore their former glory. They have done a good job of convincing Central Asians that they are actually Turks via their massive trade and education network in those countries. As stated above the flood of Turks into Europe is an exploitable beachhead for Ankara, and if they were to have negotiated with the Russians for some eastern chunk of Syria, this could have become an ideological Sudetenland for Erdogan, who may start to feel the heat as home as the proud Turks are losing to the WWII era looking Syrian Arab Army.

      The Turks need to slow down and be patient. The West is slowly eroding, but until it hits the breaking point it will be an unstoppable barrier. Erdogan needs to stay cool and keep shoving as much of his fifth column of migrants into the EU as he can, and rally Europe’s migrant Muslims around himself even if they are non-Turks.

      Turkey is in the rough geopolitical position of having Europe to the west and Russia to the north which made the idea to push south against weak Syria very logical, until it essentially became part of Russia. They want to expand but they are surrounded by spheres of influence even to the East. Right now there is no wiggle room for the Ottomans so they need to patiently grow and maybe try to make some deals with the Russians to understand just what the spheres of influence could turn into in a world with a collapsing EU that we will probably see in our lifetimes. Today is not Turkey’s day, but a weak West will open up huge opportunities for Turkey, they just need to stay patient, stay in NATO and wait it out.

      Brussels

      The EU is the source of its own problems. The mentality of those in power in the Euro bureaucracy is culturally suicidal. If they would only turn on a tenth of their former zeal for European Civilization and control their borders while cutting out immigrant welfare, they could save the continent, but they won’t do that.

      Immigrating to Europe needs to become an impossibility so Europe an assimilate the people it has now and fine a future for itself. They need some sort of “Renaissance II: The Revenge of Europe” to take place, but the elite and intelligentsia fervently against any such move. The borders around Europe need to close but the powers that be are convinced the opposite is the correct policy. This is good for Ankara, Moscow and Beijing, but not so great for Europeans.

      Europe’s openness is on track to being essentially the same as Africa’s helplessness during the Colonial Period. If you cannot defend yourself you will get carved up, this is the reality of International Relations that the status quo in Brussels does not believe in.

      In Summary

      • The Turks did not create the conditions for the first or second Migrant Crisis

      • The Turks are exploiting these conditions for their benefit by artificially starting a new Migrant Crisis, which is opportunistic and not evil.

      • The Greeks have everything to gain by using any means necessary to send a message that they cannot be overrun by migrants.

      • The Turks want to grow but have their backs to the wall geopolitically and have started Migrant Crisis 2.0 due to their failure in Syria and NATO’s lack of will to support them.

      • All migration problems in Europe could be solved by having a strict external border and enacting pro in-group policies towards throughout the EU, while cutting all welfare for the migrant out-group.


      Tyler Durden

      Tue, 03/10/2020 – 02:00

    • Meanwhile, American Troops Are Still Dying In Iraq
      Meanwhile, American Troops Are Still Dying In Iraq

      Pentagon officials announced Monday the deaths of two US service members in northern Iraq while engaged in anti-ISIS operations with Iraqi Security Forces.

      They’ve been identified as Marines operating south of Erbil, on a “mission to eliminate an ISIS terrorist stronghold in a mountainous area of north central Iraq,” according to a statement from Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve.

      “On the evening of March 8, the U.S.-led Coalition launched additional forces to recover two U.S. service members from the southern Makhmur Mountains in Iraq, approximately 60 km south of Erbil,” Col. Myles B. Caggins III said.

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      US military/Marsoc image

      “The purpose of the mission was to eliminate ISIS safe-havens in a cave complex in the Makhmur Mountains,” Caggins told Marine Corps Times. “The Makhmur Mountains are historically known to be an ISIS safe haven. However, there is no safe place for ISIS to hide,” he added.

      In the rugged and enemy-filled area it was apparently was difficult to recovered the fallen Marines’ bodies – Col. Caggins indicated it took six hours to do so.

      It further appears the Marines had been part of an elite special forces unit still at the forefront of cleaning out the last mountainous holdout pockets of ISIS terrorist cells in the region.

      “A source familiar with the operation told Marine Corps Times on background that the Americans were Marine Raiders partnering with Iraqi special forces in a large operation against ISIS,” the Marine Times report says.

      With the coronavirus pandemic spreading throughout the globe and dominating headlines, it seems many have forgotten about the some 30,000 American troops stationed in the broader Middle East – with thousands still in Iraq, and tragically still dying.


      Tyler Durden

      Tue, 03/10/2020 – 01:00

    • Wikipedia: A Disinformation Operation?
      Wikipedia: A Disinformation Operation?

      Via Swiss Propaganda Research,

      Wikipedia is generally thought of as an open, transparent, and mostly reliable online encyclopedia. Yet upon closer inspection, this turns out not to be the case.

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      In fact, the English Wikipedia with its 9 billion worldwide page views per month is governed by just 500 active administrators, whose real identity in many cases remains unknown.

      Moreover, studies have shown that 80% of all Wikipedia content is written by just 1% of all Wikipedia editors, which again amounts to just a few hundred mostly unknown people.

      Obviously, such a non-transparent and hierarchical structure is susceptible to corruption and manipulation, the notorious “paid editors” hired by corporations being just one example.

      Indeed, already in 2007, researchers found that CIA and FBI employees were editing Wikipedia articles on controversial topics including the Iraq war and the Guantanamo military prison.

      Also in 2007, researchers found that one of the most active and influential English Wikipedia administrators, called “Slim Virgin”, was in fact a former British intelligence informer.

      More recently, another highly prolific Wikipedia editor going by the false name of “Philip Cross” turned out to be linked to UK intelligence as well as several mainstream media journalists.

      In Germany, one of the most aggressive Wikipedia editors was exposed, after a two-year legal battle, as a political operative formerly serving in the Israeli army as a foreign volunteer.

      Even in Switzerland, unidentified government employees were caught whitewashing Wikipedia entries about the Swiss secret service just prior to a public referendum about the agency.

      Many of these Wikipedia personae are editing articles almost all day and every day, indicating that they are either highly dedicated individuals, or in fact, operated by a group of people.

      In addition, articles edited by these personae cannot easily be revised, since the above-mentioned administrators can always revert changes or simply block disagreeing users altogether.

      The primary goal of these covert campaigns appears to be pushing Western and Israeli government positions while destroying the reputation of independent journalists and politicians.

      Articles most affected by this kind of manipulation include political, geopolitical and certain historical topics as well as biographies of non-conformist academics, journalists, and politicians.

      Perhaps unsurprisingly, Wikipedia founder Jimmy Wales, a friend of former British Prime Minister Tony Blair and a “Young Leader” of the Davos forum, has repeatedly defended these operations.

      Speaking of Davos, Wikimedia has itself amassed a fortune of more than $160 million, donated in large part not by lazy students, but by major US corporations and influential foundations.

      Moreover, US social media and video platforms are increasingly referring to Wikipedia to frame or combat “controversial” topics. The revelations discussed above may perhaps help explain why.

      Already NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden revealed how spooks manipulate online debates, and more recently, a senior Twitter executive turned out to be a British Army “psyops” officer.

      To add at least some degree of transparency, German researchers have developed a free web browser tool called WikiWho that lets readers color code just who edited what in Wikipedia.

      In many cases, the result looks as discomforting as one might expect.

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      Tyler Durden

      Tue, 03/10/2020 – 00:05

    • Bill Gates Could Supply Your Next Coronavirus Test Kit
      Bill Gates Could Supply Your Next Coronavirus Test Kit

      The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation will soon begin distributing at-home testing kits for Seattle-area residents who suspect they have contracted Covid-19, according to a new report in the Seattle Times.

      Test kits could become available as soon as this week, via a lab funded by the foundation, could start testing hundreds per day with scaling availabilities in the weeks ahead. 

      “Although there’s a lot to be worked out, this has enormous potential to turn the tide of the epidemic,” Scott Dowell, who is in charge of the Covid-19 response effort by the foundation, told the Times.

      “One of the most important things from our perspective, having watched and worked on this in other parts of the world, is the identification of people who are positive for the virus, so they can be safely isolated and cared for, and the identification of their contacts, who can then be quarantined,” Dowell said.

      News of the test kits comes as confirmed cases in the US surge above 500 across 34 states. Washington state, specifically the Seattle Metropolitan Area, has been the hardest hit region in the country, with 16 deaths and 128 confirmed cases.

      The Gates Foundation has spent more than $20 million in the virus response effort and has committed at least $5 million for the Seattle area.

      Trevor Bedford, a computational biologist at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, warned last week that actual cases in Seattle could be around 600. Bedford said cases could soar to 12,000 to 30,000 by the end of the month if virus containment measures weren’t in place to slow down the transmission rate. 

      While the foundation’s urgency for developing a new test kit is timely, Gates was apart of The Event 201 scenario in October (months before Covid-19) that modeled a breakout of coronavirus across the world, killing 65 million people by month 18. 

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      With the Covid-19 breakout only just getting started on the continental US, expect this map to be much redder in the coming weeks. One can only hope the foundation can ramp up test kits, considering there’s a massive shortage at hospitals. 


      Tyler Durden

      Mon, 03/09/2020 – 23:45

    • Covid-19 & China's War On The Truth
      Covid-19 & China’s War On The Truth

      Authored by Giulio Meotti via The Gatestone Institute,

      “On current course, China is liable to do significant damage to the rest the world, by accident or intent,” wrote columnist Daniel Henninger in the Wall Street Journal on January 29.

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      “The Chinese Communist government increasingly poses an existential threat not just to its own 1.4 billion citizens but to the world at large”, wrote the noted historian Victor Davis Hanson on February 20.

      According to The Sunday Times,

      “Chinese laboratories identified a mystery virus as a highly infectious new pathogen by late December last year, but they were ordered to stop tests, destroy samples and suppress the news, a Chinese media outlet has revealed.

      “A regional health official in Wuhan, centre of the outbreak, demanded the destruction of the lab samples that established the cause of unexplained viral pneumonia on January 1. China did not acknowledge there was human-to-human transmission until more than three weeks later.

      “The detailed revelations by Caixin Global, a respected independent publication, provide the clearest evidence yet of the scale of the cover-up in the crucial early weeks when the opportunity was lost to control the outbreak.”

      In a speech on December 31, 2019, Xi Jinping was already triumphantly heralding a new year of “milestone significance in realising the first centenary goal”.

      “Censorship. It can have deadly consequences,” said US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on February 25.

      “Had China permitted its own and foreign journalists and medical personnel to speak and investigate freely, Chinese officials and other nations would have been far better prepared to address the challenge.”

      Unfortunately, the World Health Organization did the opposite, “praising” China for fighting the virus. Europe has also been busy appeasing China.

      In China, 780 million people – roughly half its population – are living under travel restrictions, and its president, Xi Jinping, is using the crisis to strengthen his control. Since 2013, he has continued to expand his immense authority to remain “president for life“, and is now seeking to take advantage of the coronavirus to tighten his control over the public even further, while silencing dissent.

      The consequences for Italy, which currently has far more infected persons than the rest of Europe combined, are described by Massimo Galli, the primary infectious disease specialist at Milan’s Sacco Hospital:

      “We are in full emergency. Yes, I am worried. The epidemic has to all intents and purposes conquered a part of Italy…. The situation is, frankly, an emergency from the point of view of the healthcare system. It is the equivalent of the tsunami in terms of the number of patients with major illnesses hospitalized all at once. This is just the tip of the iceberg. Even the best health organization in the world, and we are among them, risks not being able to withstand such an impact”.

      Meanwhile, China’s war on the truth marches on. The laboratory of the Shanghai Health Center was closed on January 12, one day after Professor Zhang Yongzhen’s team revealed the sequence of the coronavirus genome on open platforms. The Chinese regime prevented its scientists from finding ways to contain the epidemic. Their “crime”? Releasing the sequence to the world before the Chinese authorities did.

      “The epidemic has exposed this country completely in its corruption, bureaucracy, information control and censorship,” said Phillip Wu, a freelance writer in Beijing.

      And if you think the Chinese regime is meddling only in its own country, read a recent British report revealing how China is also curbing academic freedom in the UK.

      Zeng Yingchun and Zhen Yan, two nurses from Wuhan, the epicenter of the coronavirus, wrote a dramatic letter for the medical journal The Lancet, in which they asked the international scientific community for help:

      “The conditions and environment here in Wuhan are more difficult and extreme than we could ever have imagined. There is a severe shortage of protective equipment, such as N95 respirators, face shields, goggles, gowns, and gloves. The goggles are made of plastic that must be repeatedly cleaned and sterilised in the ward, thereby making them difficult to see through.”

      One day later, the nurses requested that their letter be withdrawn.

      The Chinese regime arrested Li Wenliang, the doctor who had issued the first admonition about the epidemic that soon killed him. On December 30 he had sent out a warning to his fellow medical workers, but police told him to stop “making false comments“. Many journalists told the truth, but were arrested or “vanished.” Social media in China talked about the virus weeks before the government did. Now the Chinese communist regime is announcing plans to publish a book in six languages about the outbreak; the book portrays President Xi as a “major power leader” with “care for the people”.

      At the Wuhan Institute of Virology, scientists carry out research at a laboratory that has the highest level of biological containment on the mainland, to study the world’s “most dangerous pathogens”. That the coronavirus might be related to Wuhan’s virus research laboratory is considered by some a “conspiracy theory,” but China’s refusal immediately to accept help from the US Centers for Disease Control understandably arouses suspicion. According to Paul Wolfowitz, former President of the World Bank and former US Deputy Secretary of Defense:

      “The fact that Wuhan is home to China’s advanced virus research laboratory known as the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which does some classified work for the Chinese military, has predictably generated speculation that the novel Corona virus might have somehow leaked out of that institute.”

      “Don’t buy China’s story: The coronavirus may have leaked from a lab”, wrote Steven Mosher, an expert on China, in The New York Post. We do not know the truth and we might never know it. The theory that the virus originated in a bio-research laboratory might indeed might turn out to be “fringe.” However, considering China’s level of secrecy and its dangerous campaign of censoring talk about the virus, is not doubt at least legitimate?

      So far as anyone can see, the Chinese communist regime has no regard for human life, freedom or dignity. The regime kills prisoners to harvest their organs for transplant, and performs “forced abortions” for “population control”. There is not only an epidemic of viruses but also of “infanticide.” According to research by Harry Wu, a 75-year-old Chinese human rights activist, “there are six to eight million inmates working” in China’s “re-education camps” today. Meanwhile, the Chinese regime, by suppressing the truth about its deadly coronavirus, has endangered not only its own people but also the international community.

      Italy’s fatal mistake was in trusting China’s regime. Instead of checking everyone — Chinese or Italian — returning from China since January, Italy kept its borders open. It is now dealing with tens of thousands of Italians under quarantine, 3,858 people infected and 148 deaths (as of March 6), the paralyzation of northern Italy’s economy, fear and hysteria in the population, with empty supermarkets in Milan, to mention just some effects of the coronavirus. Italy is now the world’s third-most-infected country after China and South Korea, with Iran not far behind.

      Professor Dali Yang, a political scientist at the University of Chicago, in an interview with the South China Morning Post newspaper, compared the coronavirus’ fallout to the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear power plant disaster in Ukraine. “It will be a crisis of Chernobyl proportions, especially because we will have to contend with the virus for years to come,” Yang said. Pharmaceutical and biotech companies around the world are working on a vaccine, which should at some point limit the damage. In 1979, there was an anthrax outbreak in Sverdlovsk, when deadly spores, leaked from a Soviet biological weapons facility, killed at least 64 people. Soviet and Russian authorities were able to cover up the incident until 1992. Nuclear, viral and biological disasters — followed by state campaign to keep these secrets — seem to be routine in dictatorships.

      Unfortunately, we in the West appear to be making the same unforgivable mistake with communist China as we did with the Soviet Union: trusting a paranoid and merciless dictatorship.

      “It is clear,” noted the Chinese dissident Ma Jian, “that the virus of Xi’s totalitarian rule threatens the health and freedoms not only of the Chinese people, but of all of us everywhere.”

      A WeChat post dedicated to the late Dr. Li Wenliang included quotes from the Soviet chemist Valery Legasov, who investigated the Chernobyl disaster, and wanted to speak the truth but was silenced, persecuted and forced to lie by the Soviet regime:

      “What is the cost of lies? It’s not that we’ll mistake them for the truth. The real danger is that if we hear enough lies, then we no longer recognize the truth …”

      Legasov took his own life. One day, we Westerners might also feel remorse for not having made the Chinese communist regime accountable for its cold-blooded crimes. Appeasing China, as we did the Soviet Union, is not just a failure; it is a lethal threat.


      Tyler Durden

      Mon, 03/09/2020 – 23:25

    • Trial Of Alleged "Vault 7" CIA Leaker Ends In Hung Jury
      Trial Of Alleged “Vault 7” CIA Leaker Ends In Hung Jury

      The trial of a former CIA computer engineer accused of the largest leak of classified information in the spy agency’s history has ended with a hung jury.

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      On Monday, a federal jury in Manhattan could not agree on whether to convict 31-year-old Joshua Schulte on eight counts, including illegal gathering and transmission of national defense information, according to the New York Times. Schulte was convicted on two other counts; contempt of court and making false statements to the FBI.

      The motivation for the alleged theft, prosecutors said, was Mr. Schulte’s belief that C.I.A. management did not take his workplace complaints seriously. His feuding with co-workers led to his resignation in November 2016 to join Bloomberg L.P. as a software engineer.

      The partial verdict came after six days of chaotic deliberations. One juror was dismissed in the middle of the discussions because she violated the judge’s orders by researching the case, and the lawyers involved, on her own, and then shared that information with the jury. The judge declined to replace her with an alternate, leaving a panel of 11 people. –New York Times

      The jury reportedly complained about one juror who was not cooperating with the rest, causing concern over “her attitude.” One juror described the deliberations as a “horrible experience” – her eyes welling with tears as she finished talking to reporters.

      Schulte, who created malware for the U.S. Government to break into adversaries computers, was named as the prime suspect in the cyber-breach one week after WikiLeaks published the “Vault 7” series of classified files.

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      As we noted in 2018, Vault 7 – a series of 24 documents which were released beginning on March 7, 2017 – revealed that the CIA had a wide variety of tools to use against adversaries, including the ability to “spoof” its malware to appear as though it was created by a foreign intelligence agency, as well as the ability to take control of Samsung Smart TV’s and surveil a target using a “Fake Off” mode in which they appear to be powered down while eavesdropping.

      The CIA’s hand crafted hacking techniques pose a problem for the agency. Each technique it has created forms a “fingerprint” that can be used by forensic investigators to attribute multiple different attacks to the same entity.

      …

      The CIA’s Remote Devices Branch’s UMBRAGE group collects and maintains a substantial library of attack techniques ‘stolen’ from malware produced in other states including the Russian Federation.

      With UMBRAGE and related projects the CIA cannot only increase its total number of attack types but also misdirect attribution by leaving behind the “fingerprints” of the groups that the attack techniques were stolen from.

      UMBRAGE components cover keyloggers, password collection, webcam capture, data destruction, persistence, privilege escalation, stealth, anti-virus (PSP) avoidance and survey techniques. –WikiLeaks

      Vault 7 also revealed:

      In addition to its operations in Langley, Virginia the CIA also uses the U.S. consulate in Frankfurt as a covert base for its hackers covering Europe, the Middle East and Africa.

      CIA hackers operating out of the Frankfurt consulate ( “Center for Cyber Intelligence Europe” or CCIE) are given diplomatic (“black”) passports and State Department cover. 

      • Instant messaging encryption is a joke.

      These techniques permit the CIA to bypass the encryption of WhatsApp, Signal, Telegram, Wiebo, Confide and Cloackman by hacking the “smart” phones that they run on and collecting audio and message traffic before encryption is applied.

      • The CIA laughs at Anti-Virus / Anti-Malware programs.

      CIA hackers developed successful attacks against most well known anti-virus programs. These are documented in AV defeats, Personal Security Products, Detecting and defeating PSPs and PSP/Debugger/RE Avoidance. For example, Comodo was defeated by CIA malware placing itself in the Window’s “Recycle Bin”. While Comodo 6.x has a “Gaping Hole of DOOM”.

      • iPads / iPhones / Android devices and Smart TV’s are all susceptible to hacks and malware. The agency’s “Dark Matter” project reveals that the CIA has been bugging “factory fresh” iPhones since at least 2008 through suppliers. Another, “Sonic Screwdriver” allows the CIA to execute code on a Mac laptop or desktop while it’s booting up.

      Schulte previously worked for the NSA before joining the CIA, then “left the intelligence community in 2016 and took a job in the private sector,” according to a statement reviewed in May of 2018 by The Washington Post.

      The verdict showed that the jury had doubts about the government’s most important evidence, which came from a C.I.A. server. Trial witnesses guided jurors through a complicated maze of forensic analysis that, according to prosecutors, showed Mr. Schulte’s work machine accessing an old backup file one evening in April 2016.

      He did so, prosecutors said, by reinstating his administrator-level access that the C.I.A. had removed after his workplace disputes. The file matched the documents posted by WikiLeaks nearly a year later, according to the government.

      The defense argued that the C.I.A. computer network had weak passwords and widely known security vulnerabilities, and that it was possible other C.I.A. employees or foreign adversaries had breached the system. –New York Times

      As the Times notes, Schulte’s legal troubles are far from over, as the government could retry the case. He also faces a separate trial after federal agents found over 10,000 images and videos of child pornography on electronic devices in his home.


      Tyler Durden

      Mon, 03/09/2020 – 23:05

    • Strategic Remix For The Middle East
      Strategic Remix For The Middle East

      Authored by Alastair Crooke via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

      The End of an Era.

      When the first World War came to its end, intimations of an end to the European Era were already evident in symptoms: aching diplomatic joints, straitened perceptual political vision and the general financial health of the patient about to turn acute, as the constipated monetary policies of the Central Banks ushered in the Great Depression. But ‘life’ went on: European men and women wildly danced the Cancan throughout the 1920s; It was Cabaret, party time. No one wanted to acknowledge the omens of what lay afore them.

      Last month, an Israeli academic opined that the future shape of the Middle East lies in the hands of three ‘insider’ states: Iran, Turkey and Israel.

      It was an interesting observation. None are Arab; and it implied an incremental US disengagement, and a modest ‘king-maker’ role for Russia.

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      What makes this statement intriguing is the focus on just three states and the downplay of external intervention as the key ‘shaper’ of the future strategic ‘map’. Implicit here is that all three are flexing their military muscles. But diplomats and political analysts usually prefer to stay at the plane of politics and national interests. They dislike the fact that the outcome of military contestation, per se, can determine political outcomes, and thus validate or negate national interests. It is offensive to diplomacy. But often, it is just so. The region at this time is not really susceptible to a direct conceptual approach: So, the focus on the outcome of military contestation, trials of strength, and then on the other – quite different dynamic – of Covid-19 and its economic effects, makes more sense than traditional purely political calculus of interests.

      And, of course, none of us find it easy to mix into this ‘pudding’ of the three powers’ military trials of strength, the possible effects of some extraneous occurrence – such as a Coronavirus outbreak, about which all is guesswork. Nonetheless, let’s try …

      Let us consider Turkey: It’s leadership has tossed aside its mask. Ah yes, Turkey has been supporting (moderate?) Islamist opponents to President Assad? But, suddenly, the mask is gone — “Idlib is ours” (i.e. is Turkish). “Aleppo like Hatay, is Turkish too”. Neo-Ottomanism; pan-Turkicism. Yes, the Arab world has noticed, and Gulf States are quickly making good with Damascus against this neo-Ottomanism.

      And, just as the moment this explicitly revanchist project seemed at risk of failing – under direct military pressure from Syria and its allies – Ankara simply threw its own troops in support of the al-Qaida forces, and even called down Uyighur and Chechen Jihadist reinforcements from Jisr al-Shagoor (the worst of the worst, extremists). Let us then hear no more from certain western circles of those ‘moderate’ forces with which Turkey is linked.

      Some Turkish soldiers (34+), mixed in with these extremist forces, were killed, as they tried to exfiltrate from Saraqib, when it fell again to Syrian and allied forces. Turkish leaders went nuts with emotion and anger. The rhetoric of ‘betrayal’ went off the scale; and then, in defiance of their agreement with President Putin, they unleashed a barrage of ‘suicide’ attack drones on Syrian forces (and military installations) – and separately killed a fair number of Iranians and Hizbullah, by-the-by.

      What has this to do with the strategic future of the Middle East? Well this: Turkey’s vastly larger army got a bloody nose (well beyond the Turk’s 34+ dead after Saraqib), from the asymmetric warfare strategy turned on them. Let that sink in: NATO’s second largest standing army effectively was trounced by smaller, irregular (but experienced) forces.

      And worse, after 24 hours of Turkey beating its chest about the extraordinary success of its armed drones (launched during an unfortunate ceasefire called by Russia) that were to tip the balance of power in the Middle East, no less, Syrian air defences and (probably Russian) electronic warfare, fully neutralised the Turkish drone threat.

      Let’s add up: Turkey has been exposed as having been using Islamism (and Al-Qaida Jihadists) as mere cover for its true neo-Ottoman and Pan-Turkic revanchist ambitions. The mask has fallen. It cannot be replaced. Neither its army, nor its armed drones, have turned out to be the game-changers that the Turkish leadership imagined them to be. Turkey too, has alienated Europe by its refugee blackmail (didn’t Erdogan take into account the impact of ‘the virus’ on European migration sentiment?).

      Erdogan has infuriated the Russian military; and in an unprecedented joint warning, Iranian and Hizbullah militaries said that Turkish troops would become vulnerable, were Turkey to continue in this mode. This time, Turkey has ‘ticked off’ just about everyone.

      But that is not the end of it. The virus affects another calculus, too: Debt – especially sovereign debt – suddenly is being viewed in highly sceptical way, following the sudden global ‘supply-shock’. Turkey’s economy is in deep trouble – but unlike earlier episodes, when the Chinese helped the Turkish Lira stay afloat, they too have been unimpressed by Erdogan’s trying to protect and use (some 3,000) Uyighur jihadists as a handy Turkish tool. The troubles mount up … and there are signs that Erdogan’s domestic political support is fragmenting (even within his own ruling party).

      Putin saw the situation: Conflict between Russia and Turkey is only to the benefit of America. He smoothed Erdogan’s ruffled feathers, caressed his ego – and took ‘off the board’ the M4, the M5, and (ultimately) Idlib too. The 5 March “cease-fire” is a temporary agreement. It won’t last, but it puts the writing on the wall. Idlib is the pin that has popped the Turkish balloon. This represents a major regional strategic shift.

      So, let’s visit the other pole to the strategic military equation: Iran has amply demonstrated an effective military prowess – both in terms of missile, drone and electronic warfare technology, as well as by its adoption of a radically de-centralised, amorphous and ambiguous, offensive capability. It is not perfect: it is not intended for going head-to-head with the US or Israel; but it can impose asymmetric costs on any adversary, and spread them across the region.

      The Gulf States have come to this understanding; and so has Israel, which cannot face a multi-front war, any more than Iran can prevail in a head-to-head war with the US. (Though the US capability to mount the latter, probably no longer exists. The US can no longer credibly invade Iran in order to supress a concealed and prolonged missile assault on American and Israeli targets.) In short, Iran has acquired something of a military edge — enough to establish deterrence, at least.

      And after the military dynamics, we are brought to the geo-politics and economics of the Corona virus.

      The virus has brought an extraneous, sudden ‘shock’ to the real economy. The virus is not like seasonal ‘flu. It is much more infectious (the virus being in the throat, rather than lungs), and it propagates via cough and sneeze droplets that linger for many days on objects that others then touch. But unlike seasonal ‘flu, Covid-19 carriers may have the virus, but not have the disease (i.e. show no symptoms), which makes it hard to identify any chain of infection – or to take appropriate containment action. Medical experts, however, do not know the circumstances of Covid-19’s inception (presumed to be zoonotic, but lacking evidence for this); do not know its reproduction number; its fatality ratio; and do not know whether it is affected by seasons. It seems to have already mutated once, producing both a milder and a more lethal variant.

      In short, anyone saying how long this virus will last simply is guessing. (Spanish ‘flu – by way of illustration of the nature of viral ‘unknowns’ – began in late 1917, processed through three distinct phases in 1918; mutated, and became more lethal in August 1918; (with the peak lethality taking place in September – November); and began to wane in 1919. It infected one-third of the global population, and killed between 50–100 million persons in Europe, North America and Asia.

      So, in the face of such uncertainty, what can we say about the Middle East?

      Well, the first point is that this economic shock comes toward the end to a long-term, debt and credit cycle, with the Central Banks having ‘goosed’ asset values with liquidity injections, and near zero interest rates. And here is the point: really for some decades now, all western (and Chinese) policy has been geared to demand stimulation. All the so-called ‘tools’ were monetary, and intended to make people spend and consume more.

      But a sudden ‘supply-stop’ caused by a pandemic cannot be corrected by monetary or interest rate means. And factories dislocated, and supply lines cut, also implies ‘demand stop’, as merely being the obvious other side of the production ‘coin’ (as workers are laid off, or their pay is cut).

      Already, trade is stalling, tourism is extinct and markets are fluctuating giddily. The virus is even putting into question globalist supply chains and western monetary policy. When the US ‘Fed’ announced an emergency 0.5% rate cut – the first since 2008 – markets fell. Of course the talk will be now of fiscal measures. But even fiscal measures cannot open factories, closed through disease and quarantine. What fiscal measures can do is subsidise otherwise failing businesses, ad interim. But that would go directly against our laissez faire culture (and in the EU, its direct rules).

      How badly will the Middle East be affected? No one knows the timeline, or the final virulence of this virus. (Seasonal ‘flu has a 0.2% mortality rate of those infected; but the WHO is estimating 3.4% for Corona virus. The UK’s worst case scenario is half a million dead.) It is unlikely that regional healthcare can sustain the forecast 15-20% hospitalisation of those infected by Covid-19, who will require hospital treatment. Nor can Europe’s health system, either. Estimates (guesses really) for its peak is early summer.

      Then there are the economic consequences: Tourism is dead; global markets have been crashing; and everyone is concerned about the massive overhang of corporate and sovereign debt – were the ‘supply-stop’ to be prolonged. Of course, oil producers will be the most vulnerable – for which, read the Gulf States. WTI is already trading in the mid $40s. But also, those most integrated in the New York financial system may be vulnerable to financial turbulence and bankruptcies – for which read Israel and the Gulf States.

      It is unlikely that anyone will escape Corona’s effects, one way or another. Even if Covid-19 eases today, there is unlikely to be an economic snap-back. The effects will linger into the following two quarters. At the moment it is Iran that is feeling it most; but the twists and turns in the life of a virus can be capricious: Why is it that Italy has been so badly struck in Europe? No one knows (it seems it may have the more virulent ‘L’ mutation).

      So to the bottom line: Strategically, Turkey has lost its game of ‘chicken’ in Syria, and may be about to experience an economic implosion – to be mitigated only by its preparedness, or not – to kowtow to Moscow and Beijing’s demands. Iran will survive – the Shi’a have a long experience of hardship – and Iran is too important-to-fail, for either China or Russia. The Lebanese, Iraqi and Jordanian oligarchs and Zaim (sectarian leaderships) were on the ‘critical list’, even before the Corona economic effects hit them, anew. They cannot reform, and refuse to adapt. Discontent will get worse, and protests generated by the virus-effects will proliferate – just as discontent in South Korea and Japan over Covid-19 already has been directed towards their leaders.

      But the Gulf States, already politically undercut by the ‘new Sykes-Picot’ type humiliation on which Trump insists under his ‘deal of the century’ ultimatum – and caught between the rock of Washington’s Iran policy and the ‘hard place’ of the Iranian push-back – will suffer economically in ways for which neither its leaders, nor its stipendiary populations, are prepared.

      Oil in the mid $40s (WTI), and a paralysed tourist industry for as long as Covid-19 takes, represents a new ‘shock’ worse than the September Aramco vulnerability ‘shock’.

      The strategic map, it is a-shifting.


      Tyler Durden

      Mon, 03/09/2020 – 22:45

    • Wuhan Students Get Homework Software Banned From App Store By Spamming It With One Star Ratings
      Wuhan Students Get Homework Software Banned From App Store By Spamming It With One Star Ratings

      In what is likely the most epic story to come out of China as a result of the coronavirus so far, locked down students in Wuhan have found a creative way to avoid doing their homework while schools are closed.

      While schools have been suspended, teachers have been using an app called DingTalk to assign their students online lessons and homework, despite the lockdown. 

      <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

      Via technode

      After the app was introduced, however, students who were happy to be on lockdown beforehand grew annoyed with having to do work, according to the London Review of Books.

      <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

      So they engineered their own solution and decided to take action. Students figured out eventually that if they had enough users spam the app with one star ratings, they could get it kicked off of the app store, which would then in turn prevent them from having to do homework. 

      As a result, “thousands of reviews” flooded into and DingTalk saw its app rating fall from 4.9 to 1.4 overnight. 

      <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

      Via technode

      According to the report, “the app has had to beg for mercy” on social media, stating: ‘I’m only five years old myself, please don’t kill me.’

      Not much out of the country has given us hope since the coronavirus outbreak began, but this story should possibly give future generations optimism about young Chinese citizens’ eagerness to band together and overthrow authority. 

      And to the teachers, it’s already bad enough the kids are suffering through what is likely going to be one of the most impactful pandemics of modern times. Maybe you can cut them a break on the book reports for the time being.


      Tyler Durden

      Mon, 03/09/2020 – 22:25

    • Caught On Video: Australian Women Brawl Over Roll Of Toilet Paper
      Caught On Video: Australian Women Brawl Over Roll Of Toilet Paper

      While footage of insane lines and empty shelves at big-box stores such as Costco have made headlines in recent weeks, things have turned violent in some parts of the world – such as this Australian grocery store, where a trio of women got into an altercation over a package of toilet paper.

      It’s as if toilet paper factories are going to shut down and people will have to revert to whatever humans did before TP.

      A thought:

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      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jshttps://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jshttps://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js


      Tyler Durden

      Mon, 03/09/2020 – 22:05

    • Prisons In Uproar As Italy Expands Lockdown, South Korea Reports Huge Drop In Case, Washington Confirms 4 More Deaths Tied To Nursing Home: Live Updates
      Prisons In Uproar As Italy Expands Lockdown, South Korea Reports Huge Drop In Case, Washington Confirms 4 More Deaths Tied To Nursing Home: Live Updates

      Summary:

      • First 2 Coronavirus deaths recorded in Germany
      • Washington State confirms 4 more deaths, 30+ more cases as nursing home finishes tests
      • South Korea reports 131 new cases for Monday, a sizable drop
      • 7 dead as prison riots spread across Italy
      • Italy reports 1,797 new cases, bringing total to 9,172 as deaths increase by 27% overnight, to 463
      • Santa Clara reports second coronavirus death
      • 3 more deaths confirmed in Washington State
      • LA reports first case of community spread
      • De Blasio says NYC quarantine “a possibility”
      • WHO’s Dr. Tedros says threat of pandemic has become “very real”
      • Confirmed cases near or pass 1,000 in France, Germany and Spain
      • US deaths hit 22
      • Canada reports first death in British Columbia
      • Germany state of Brandenburg has between 4k and 5k in home quarantine
      • Trump to meet with Wall Street CEOs Wednesday
      • South Korea imposes travel advisory, confirms another 96 cases; 3 new deaths (total: 54)
      • Hungary stops flights to and from Northern Italy
      • PM Johnsons says UK won’t close parliament
      • Trump to hold WH meeting on fiscal stimulus
      • Italian PM promises “massive shock therapy” to save economy from coronavirus
      • Amazon asks employees in NY, NJ to work from home
      • Deutsche Bank cancels 150-year-anniversary celebrations
      • Dozens of flights leave northern Italy despite quarantine, even as airlines cancel routes
      • Moody’s says US economy headed for recession
      • Cuomo confirms 142 new cases in New York State, bringing total confirmed in NYC to 19
      • NY has started making its own sanitizer
      • Columbia University cancels classes, Princeton moves lectures online
      • 78 new public health labs open across US Monday
      • Spain PM says he will have ’emergency plan’ to tackle outbreak
      • UK confirms another 45 cases
      • VP Pence will hold press conference at 5:30ET Monday
      • Amtrak shutters ‘Acela Corridor’
      • Korean construction worker contracted by US military tests positive
      • Total number of cases jumps above 9,000 while deaths hit 463
      • ‘Grand Princess’ docks in Oakland
      • Another cruise ship disaster might be shaping up in Fla.
      • Trump congratulates VP Pence via tweet
      • New cases in South Korea drop as Philippines case total doubles
      • EUCO President says conference call will be held to coordinate EU response
      • Germany and France finmins hold talks to discuss crisis
      • Missouri declares first “presumptive” positive Sunday night; father of patient breaks quarantine
      • Dutch infections climb to 321

      * * *

      Update (2145ET): Here’s some more grist for a market rally.

      Following what has been by all accounts a well-organized and properly orchestrated containment plan, South Korea reported another 35 cases early Tuesday morning in Seoul, raising the total cases confirmed on Monday to just 131 cases.

      That brings South Korea’s total to 7,513, according to the Korean CDC.

      * * *

      Update (2130ET): The Life Care Center of Kirkland, the nursing home in Washington State’s King County that has emerged as the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak in that state (how the virus arrived in the home is still unknown, officials say), has finally finished testing the rest of the three dozen or so patients who remain at the facility following a recent outbreak of novel coronavirus.

      By Monday, the number of residents remaining at the facility – which recently held as many as 120, and as many as 55 over the weekend –  residents remain at the post-acute care center, which had 120 residents as recently as Feb. 19. Of the 35 residents tested, 31 tested positive, 3 tested negative, and one case was inconclusive.

      Shortly after the facility, which is currently being aided by a state ‘strike team’ of 30 doctors and nurses, announced the testing results, state officials confirmed more deaths and positive tests.

      According to KIRO7, on Monday, Public Health – Seattle & King County – announced three new deaths and Overlake Medical Center announced one death, bringing Washington’s statewide total to 23. The four new deaths were all Life Care Center residents. The county also announced 33 new cases, bringing the King County total to 116.

      Roughly two dozen cases from the nursing home – including residents and staff – have already been confirmed, and more than 16 residents have died. All four of the new deaths in the county confirmed on Monday were said to be associated with the home.

      Family members of the facility’s residents are furious that its operators didn’t close the facility as soon as the first case was detected, and state officials, including the County executive of King County, have attacked the home’s Tennessee-based owner for being difficult to deal with.

      WaPo’s coronavirus tracker, one of the most up-to-date records of cases in the US, hasn’t yet factored in the numbers announced by Washington State officials.

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      * * *

      Update (2000ET): In what was undoubtedly Prime Minister Matteo Conte’s boldest moment since rising from relative obscurity to lead a coalition government forged between two ideologically-incompatible parties back in 2017, the Italian prime minister declared during a press conference from the Palazzo Chigi, the PM’s official residence, that the extreme quarantine measures leaked to the public just two days prior simply weren’t comprehensive enough to suppress the outbreak.

      Unfortunately, things have gone too far for that Conte said, and declared, as we described below, a China-style lockdown that requires everybody in the country to basically remain where they are – no traveling – and, for the elderly and high-risk especially, it calls for the cancellation of almost every conceivable activity except jobs that can’t be done from home, leaving people with little option but to hang out at home or in small groups (where risks of an outbreak are lower).

      Unused to such heavy-handed government, the Italian population has accepted the government’s yoke with surprising deference so far. Well, except for one notable group: prisoners.

      As we mentioned earlier, prison uprisings that began in Modena have spread throughout the northern lockdown zone. Since this morning, another inmate has been declared dead, bringing the total death toll from the riots to seven, while two guards were briefly captured at a prison in the town of Pavia on Sunday, but have since been released.

      <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

      According to Reuters, inmates revolted in Milan’s San Vittore prison, taking to the roof and unfurling a banner demanding a general pardon. Moving further South, prisoners in the Tuscan city of Prato set fire to mattresses.

      Even further south, riots took root in Sicily and the southern city of Foggia, where a tank was reportedly dispatched to look for 50 escaped inmates (though, as one twitter wit joked, locals needn’t worry about the prisons thanks to the quarantine: they’ll be stuck inside anyway).

      In Sicily, inmates rebelled at Palermo’s Ucciardone prison, which houses several high-profile Mafia convicts. Fortunately were able to regain control of the situation according to officials.

      In Modena, officials blamed three of the deaths on ‘drug overdoses’ after prisoners raided a prison hospital and stole methadone and benzodiazepines.

      Experts have applauded Conte for taking such a bold step, but whether Italians obey the quarantine still remains to be seen. Hopefully, the images of the prisons in chaos instills a sense of duty in them, as they’re offered a glimpse of what chaos could like look if things really spin out of control.

      * * *

      Update (1640ET): Is Italy really trying to beat China at its own authoritarian game?

      In a stunning announcement late Monday evening, PM Giuseppe Conte revealed during an announcement from the Palazzo Chigi that he would be expanding Italy’s strict quarantine travel restrictions to the entirety of the country, Corriere Della Sera reports.

      The restrictions will last for two weeks, and during that time, movement will be restricted across Italy.

      • ITALY PM CONTE SAYS WILL NO LONGER BE “RED ZONE”, ALL OF ITALY WILL BE UNDER SAME CONDITION
      • ITALY PM CONTE SAYS MOVEMENT WILL BE RESTRICTED ALL OVER ITALY
      • CONTE SAYS ITALY WILL LIMIT PUBLIC ASSEMBLY THROUGHOUT COUNTRY
      • CONTE TO SIGN MEASURE TO EXTEND MEASURES THROUGH COUNTRY

      The shutdown of schools and universities across the country will be prolonged until April 3.

      The unprecedented nationwide quarantine comes as the Italy’s new cases soar by a record high 1,797 to 9,172 as the deaths increase by 27% overnight, or almost 100, to 463.

      <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

      The right behavior now, Conte said, is for people to just stay home.

      Pretty soon, this map will be obsolete:

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      * * *

      Update (1550ET): Santa Clara County has reported its second coronvirus-linked death.

      According to KRON 4, the woman who passed away was in her 60s, and was in the hospital for several weeks before passing away. She was the first confirmed case of COVID-19 in the county who had not traveled internationally, or had contact with an already infected patient, which suggests it was a ‘community spread’ case.

      Overall, she was the third case in the county, and the second death. The two prior had a direct, easily traceable line of transmission. The patient died at El Camino Hospital.

      This comes after health officials in King County Washington reported another 3 days earlier, raising the total to 22, along with this death, which raises the US death toll to 23. All of them were residents of the Life Care nursing home in Kirkland.

      LA County, meanwhile, reported two new cases, including the County’s first case of community spread, while Mayor De Blasio said during an interview with CNN Monday that declaring a city-wide quarantine is a “possibility” as the total number of cases in NYC alone hits 16. The three new cases announced earlier by Cuomo on Monday involved two residents from Brooklyn, and one from Queens.

      Back in LA, one of the two new patients had a recent travel history to Japan. The close contacts of both individuals would be traced, LA Times reported. Officials said between 80 and 100 tests have already been run in a local lab.

      “It’s a possibility but I do think people are getting a little ahead of ourselves and we should be careful,” de Blasio said.

      He added the school closures also possible.

      * * *

      Update (1545ET): As we near the end of the US trading day, let’s review some important developments from the last few hours.

      Qatar has become the latest Gulf State to place restrictions on travel; the tiny kingdom said it would ban travelers from a list of 14 countries. Asian FIFA World Cup 2022 postponed several qualifiers. Saudi Arabia has temporarily suspended land and sea travel to and from Oman, France, Germany, Turkey and Spain on Monday for citizens and residents to help block the virus, a local media outlet reported, per Bloomberg.

      Al Jazeera reports that ‘bootleg’ booze has killed 27 people in Iran after rumors that drinking alcohol could help cure the virus led for a spike in demand for moonshine in the notoriously alcohol-intolerant Muslim nation. A spokesman for Jundishapur medical university in Ahvaz, the capital of Khuzestan, said 218 people had been hospitalised there after being poisoned. The poisonings were caused by “rumours that drinking alcohol can be effective in treating coronavirus,” they said. Saudi Arabia has also said it would impose a fine of up to 500,000 riyals ($133,000) on people who do not disclose their health-related information and travel details at entry points

      The CDC said earlier that the death toll in the US had climbed to 22, while the WHO pointed out that the US is “under testing.”

      As of Monday morning, more than 560 people have been diagnosed with the new coronavirus in dozens of US states, while 22 deaths have been confirmed in the country in connection with the outbreak, with the deaths recorded in Florida, Cali and Florida.

      * * *

      Update (1445ET): Public health officials in Canada have confirmed the first death tied to SARS-COV-2, better known as the novel coronavirus, which causes the illness known as Covid-19.

      The man was living in a British Columbia nursing home. He passed away last night, said Dr. Bonnie Henry during a press conference roughly an hour ago.

      Two other residents and an employee at the BC facility have also tested positive for the virus.

      * * *

      Update (1440ET): During NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio’s latest update on the coronavirus situation, he reportedly asked New Yorkers to ‘consider’ working from home, if they aren’t already doing so.

      Around the same time, Amazon reportedly advised New York and New Jersey employees to work from home from March 10 until the end of the month if possible, WSJ reports.

      In other news, a US Marine who tested positive for the coronavirus in Virginia – one of the first two cases to be confirmed in the state – reportedly worked at the Defense Security Cooperation Agency, which is situated near the Pentagon.

      New York and New Jersey offices include employees in marketing, fashion, advertising, cloud computing, plus the company’s Audible division.

      * * *

      Update (1340ET): As the government boosts testing following the imposition of a sweeping quarantine impacting most of the Italian north, for the third day in a row, officials have pointed a more than 1,000-case jump in the total coronavirus infections, and a 25% increase in deaths.

      On Monday, officials reported 1,797 new cases, and 93 new deaths.

      • ITALY REPORTS 9,172 CORONAVIRUS CASES, 463 DEATHS AS OF MONDAY

      The new cases pushed the total global case number above 110,000. Earlier, Spanish authorities reported 2 new deaths as the Catalonian health department has confirmed “the death of a 97-year-old man and an 88-year-old woman,” bringing the total number of coronavirus-related deaths in Spain to 28.

      During its regular press briefing, the CDC announced that 78 labs across the country in all 50 states and Washington DC have been certified to test up to 75,000 people for the coronavirus, according to Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases.

      Wall Street execs will reportedly visit the White House on Wednesday to discuss the country’s response to the coronavirus and what can be done to save the economy, according to the Washington Post. Trump is supposed to meet with his top economic advisors, including Treasury Sec. Steven Mnuchin, on Monday afternoon with markets back near their lows of the day.

      * * *

      Update (1300ET): It looks like another troubling cruise-ship coronavirus disaster is shaping up in Florida, one of three states that has recorded fatalities related to the outbreak.

      According to CNN, two recently diagnosed cases in Florida are tied to a cruise that recently docked in Port Everglades. Broward County in Florida announced that two of the three presumptive positive cases of coronavirus in the county are related to people coming through Port Everglades. Port Everglades is among the most active ports in the US for cruise ships, cargo and petroleum products. However, the county wont’ say more than that: Were these individuals passengers on a cruise ship? How were they exposed.

      * * *

      Update (1240ET): During the WHO’s daily press update, Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said Monday that the global coronavirus outbreak, which is closing in on its 4,000th death, is beginning to look like a “real pandemic.”

      Dr. Tedros said the WHO is “encouraged” by Italy’s quarantine, and hopes that these methods will “prove effective” in the coming days. The rule of the game, he added, is “never give up.”

      <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

      Of the four countries with the worst outbreaks, China is bringing its epidemic under control, and South Korea is now reporting a decline in cases, he said.

      Both countries have demonstrated that “it’s never too late” to turn back the virus tide. Every country with confirmed cases of the virus has an opportunity to follow in their footsteps, Dr. Tedros said, because so far, most countries are only seeing “clusters” of community transmission. As long as that’s the case, these clusters can be contained, he said.

      “For the moment, only a handful of countries have signs of sustained community transmission. Most countries still have sporadic Covid-19 cases or defined clusters,” he said.

      Watch the daily briefing here:

      Gov Cuomo made a similar comment earlier:

      “This is not the ebola virus. This panic that you see is unwarranted. We have dealt with worse viruses,” Cuomo said.

      * * *

      Update (1200ET): South Korea showed once again that the pace of new infections has continued to slow on Monday, while also raising its travel advisory for northern and central Italy

      This follows SK’s second case update for Sunday: 96 new cases, which were identified between midnight Sunday and 4 pm, have brought the nation’s total number of infections to 7,478, the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said, according to Yonhap. That follows 248 new cases detected earlier. About an hour ago, the Korean CDC confirmed 3 new deaths, bringing its total to 54.

      After recording its first coronavirus case last week, Hungary has stopped flights to and from northern Italy and cancelled its March 15 national day celebrations amid growing fears that the outbreak will spread, according to the FT.

      In the UK, a fourth coronavirus patient died on Monday. The patient was being treated at the Royal Wolverhampton Hospital and was in their 70s with underlying health conditions, UK health authorities confirmed. The person had contracted the virus in the UK and efforts are being made to trace their contacts.

      * * *

      Update (1140ET): Port Authority Executive Director Rick Cotton has been diagnosed with the coronavirus. Cotton, the executive director of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, the independent quasi-public government agency responsible for the port, apparently contracted the virus after visiting airports and other Port Authority facilities.

      He is at home under quarantine, NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo said.

      During what has become a daily (sometimes twice-daily) live press update, Cuomo confirmed that the number of cases in New York State has climbed to 142, with 16 new cases in Westchester, 7 new cases in NYC, 12 new cases in Nassau County, 2 new cases in Rockland County and 1 new case in Ulster County:

      <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

      With 142 cases of the new coronavirus, New York has 6% of the cases in the nation, however, only 8 of those people are hospitalized currently.

      After reiterating that the panic and hysteria is far out of proportion to what’s actually happening, Cuomo said Monday morning that as the national run on Purell continues, the state will produce its own hand sanitzier, which it can accomplish at a cost of $6 a gallon to make the NYS hand sanitizer. 

      The product is being produced at the Great Meadow Correctional Facility in Washington County. Unfortunately for NYC residents, the hand sanitizer is not available to the general public; it’s being provided, for free, to school districts and municipalities.

      Cuomo added that the NYS hand-sanitizer has “a floral bouquet” – before adding that he was joking, though in all seriousness the governor said he did detect a “hint of citrus.”

      Speaking after Cuomo, NYS Health Commissioner Howard Zucker says the state, in consultation with the CDC, is considering a closure of the public schools in New Rochelle for a period of weeks. Jewish schools in the city, a locus for new coronavirus infections, are already closed. Zucker added that New York state’s public health labs can test “several hundred” coronavirus samples each day.

      In addition, Cuomo said the state has shut down nursing homes in the Westchester County city of New Rochelle to visitors. He urged other nursing homes to be cautious because “this is the vulnerable population.” Cuomo said he spoke with VP Pence on Monday about NY getting approval for automated testing.

      Outside the evacuees, at least 15 patients have recovered: Six in California, four in Nebraska, two in Illinois, one in Washington, one in Arizona and one in Wisconsin.

      Here’s an updated case map of the US, courtesy of NBC News:

      <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

      * * *

      Update (1130ET): In a landmark moment for the coronavirus outbreak in Europe, German health officials have reported the first coronavirus-linked death on German soil, Bild reports.

      Moments later, the German health ministry confirmed that two patients have died on Germany soil.

      <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

      This comes after a German man died in Egypt yesterday.

      * * *

      Update (11:25ET): A statement delivered minutes ago by the CDC asked colleges and universities with students studying abroad to consider bringing them back to the US, and that upcoming study abroad programs should be cancelled.

      * * *

      Update (1120ET): Italian PM Giuseppe Conte promised earlier on Monday a “massive shock therapy” intended to revive the Italian economy during comments to La Repubblica.

      Conte also urged Europe to embrace “strong” action to stop the outbreak. These sentiments were echoed by French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday, when he demanded that Europe come up with a “strong, massive and coordinated response”. During a euro zone finance ministers meeting next week, the bloc is expected to come up with a plan to revive to Continental economy and avoid a brutal downturn.

      * * *

      Update (1115ET): The German state of Brandenburg, which encircles Berlin, has reportedly between 4,000 to 5,000 locals in an at-home quarantine following a “presumptive” case was confirmed in the area. Dozens of cases have been confirmed in Berlin, but ‘community transmission’ in the region hasn’t been confirmed.

      Elsewhere in Germany, Deutsche Bank has reportedly cancelled festivities scheduled in Berlin on Saturday to celebrate the bank’s 150-year-anniversary.

      * * *

      Update (1058ET): If there was ever a moment that an aide needed to seize the president’s phone…this is it.

      Trump has become one of those “it’s only the flu” people? Hasn’t somebody explained to him why this is a flawed argument?

      Hopefully, they can keep the US death toll below that of Hurricane Katrina, at least. More US classes, including Colombia University in New York, are cancelling classes for the rest of the semester, while Princeton, an Ivy League institution in New Jersey, is moving its lectures online.

      Meanwhile, Irish carrier Ryan Air has stopped more flights to and from Italian cities. Other carriers to drop some or all flights to and from Italy include Alitalia (the country’s flagship carrier, which is only flying domestic right now), Delta Air Lines has also cancelled some flights, has has British Airlines.

      However, despite these cancellations and the quarantine, there are still dozens of flights leaving northern Italy on Monday.

      * * **

      Update (1045ET): President Trump, oil analyst, has checked back into the chat.

      While we suspect Trump is less-than-pleased with today’s equity-market selloff (hence the headline a few moments ago about a White House meeting to discuss economic stimulus plans), the president has proven time and time again that he doesn’t really understand the downside of falling oil prices (though the Fed very much does, thanks to Powell’s comments on HY credit).

      Which is why he didn’t hesitate to celebrate the drop in prices as a de facto ‘tax cut’ for Americans.

      It’s good for the consumers: In other words, the federal government is telling them they should avoid traveling or even leaving the house. But if they decide to roll the dice, at least gasoline will be cheap, cheap, cheap!

      * * *

      Update (1027ET): Following President Trump’s return to the White House this afternoon, a meeting about options for ‘economic stimulus’ – which the administration has said could include more tax cuts – will be held with some of the administration’s top economic advisors.

      That headline couldn’t have come at a better time, having just followed this remark from Moody’s economist Mark Zandi, one of the loudest voices in the market place.

      If Trump is lacking for ideas, he could give the US economy research desk at 200 West a ring. They’ve already committed a few ideas to paper.

      In the US, equity markets have bounced off their lows.

      Ahead of the meeting between Trump and his economic team, where Trump will be presented with a “full menu of economic options”, one source told CNBC’s Eamon Javers that oil-market intervention wouldn’t be a part of the plan.

      While it’s definitely a short-term negative for US shale, we’re sure President Trump won’t mind the de facto ‘tax cut’ for consumers.

      * * *

      Update (1015ET): Across the US, 77 public health labs have finished setting up their Covid-19 testing as of Monday morning. Seven more labs are in the middle of the ‘process of verification’, which involves the CDC.

      * * *

      Update (0950ET): While the world has been transfixed by the chaos in American equity markets as the first major circuit breaker is triggered, the coronavirus news just keeps coming:

      Five new cases have been confirmed in Scotland, bringing the Scottish total to 23, and the UK-wide total to 281. Spain has closed schools in the Basque town of Labastida for 14 days. Italy’s market watchdog Consob said in a statement on Monday that halting stock-market trading would generate long-term problems. However, a ban on short selling could be considered when shares’ movement exceed 10% and if other conditions are in place, as per European rules.

      CNN reported that the Trump Administration is considering ‘discouraging’ Americans from taking air travel.

      Three additional coronavirus cases were confirmed in New York City bringing the total to 16 confirmed cases, according to Mayor Bill de Blasio’s spokesperson Freddi Goldstein.

      The three new cases raise the NYS total to 108. Above, Mayor de Blasio says 85 additional school nurses will be dispatched to help deal with the coronavirus-related demand.

      Finally, national UK health officials have confirmed another batch of cases, bringing the total to 319 from 273.

      Meanwhile, the WHO is holding its daily press conference:

      * * *

      Update (0915ET): As critics slam President Trump for not focusing on the virus, the commander-in-chief of the American armed forces tweeted another congratulatory message to VP Mike Pence.

      Trump also insisted that the best decision he made was closing off travel from China early on as epidemiologist slam his administration for not stockpiling enough tests.

      Unfortunately, it would have been better if the CDC had administered more than 2,000 tests as of eod Friday, but those unfortunately aren’t the circumstances on the ground. We look forward to hearing more from the administration tonight – perhaps some encouraging information about when the market can expect test kits to be made available to everyone who needs one – when VP Pence leads a press conference beginning at 5:30 pm ET.

      Over in China, officials in Wuhan announced Monday that they would be closing 11 of the 18 makeshift hospitals built during the outbreak.

      * * *

      Update (0845ET): Following UK PM Boris Johnson’s emergency meeting Monday morning with fellow government officials, the UK leadership has reportedly decided against closing Parliament over the outbreak, though access to visitors will be strictly limited.

      Overnight, the number of confirmed cases in Spain nearly doubled, going from 589 on March 8 to 999 on March 9. In response, the government has ordered all schools and universities in the country to close. With acute concentrations of cases in the capital, Madrid, as well as the country’s industrial hub in the Basque country, deaths have climbed to 26 across the country. In Madrid alone, confirmed cases increased by about 200 between Sunday and Monday, BBG reports.

      After the number of cases in the Philippines doubled to 20 on Monday, from now on well-wishers will not be allowed to touch Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte to protect him from the coronavirus, his security detail said. Duterte is 74, and thus technically a high-risk patient.

      In Iran officials have temporarily released 70,000 prisoners in a bid to contain coronavirus in the country.

      Iran’s Mizan news agency quoted judiciary chief Ebrahim Raisi as saying “it is necessary for the temporary release of prisoners to continue… so long as it does not create insecurity in society.”

      In the Netherlands, cases have climbed to 321, according to local media reports.

      * * *

      Update (0830ET):  As Boris Johnson holds an emergency meeting with senior government leaders in London, across the Channel, European Council President Charles Michel said Monday that Brussels would be hosting a conference call with all EU leaders.

      • PRES. OF EUCO MICHEL: FOLLOWING CONSULTATIONS, I WILL HOLD A EUCO MEMBERS CONFERENCE CALL SHORTLY ON COVID-19 TO COORDINATE EU EFFORTS. WE NEED TO COOPERATE IN ORDER TO PROTECT THE HEALTH OF OUR CITIZENS.

      Meanwhile, over in India, four new cases of the virus have been confirmed, including a 3-year-old child.

      In Spain, which is finally confronting the severity of its outbreak as the number of confirmed cases teeters right at the 1,000-case mark, and the president of neighboring Portugal has gone into quarantine, is preparing to unfurl an “emergency plan” of its own, according to socialist PM Pedro Sanchez.

      • SPAIN’S PM SÁNCHEZ: THE GOVT. PREPARES TO LAUNCH AN EMERGENCY PLAN TO DEAL WITH CORONAVIRUS AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

      * * *

      Update (0650ET): As case counts explode across Europe, it looks like Spain – conveniently, Europe’s fourth-largest economy – will be next to cross the 1,000-confirmed-case threshold.

      • SPANISH CORONAVIRUS CASES JUMP TO 999: HEALTH MINISTRY

      The health ministry has also just reported another 8 deaths, raising the total to 25.

      * * *

      Update (0620ET): As case totals climb above 1,000 in Europe’s two largest economies – France and Germany – while one-fifth to one-quarter of the Italian economy (Europe’s third-largest) goes offline, the finance ministers of France and Germany have reportedly been commiserating about their shared predicament this morning.

      And that’s pretty much all that needs to be said about that.

      In other news, VP Pence will hold a briefing in the situation room at noon, followed by several other briefings throughout the day, culminating with a public press briefing at 5:30.

      * * *

      Since we checked in last on Sunday evening, hundreds of new cases have been confirmed in Europe and Asia, but the ambient level of global hysteria has seemingly escalated with the limit-down moves in seemingly every global market that isn’t nailed down.

      In the US, 537 cases have been identified since the first cases arrived in Washington State and California back in January, including the dozens of travel-related and ‘community spread’-related cases, along with the ~50 evacuees, according to the Washington Post.

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      An emblematic sign of the hysteria in the US, Amtrak has suspended its non-stop service between New York and Washington – suspending travel along the so-called “Acela corridor” for power commuters who routinely travel back and forth between NY, Washington, Philly, Boston and all the places in between.

      Late last night, the state of Missouri confirmed its first “presumptive positive,” a girl who lives at home with her parents, according to a local TV station.

      News reports claimed that the father of the student broke quarantine by attending a school dance with his other daughter, Fox News reported.

      A school attended by the patient’s sister has closed out of an “abundance of caution.”

      In the US, Dr. Anthony Fauci said yesterday that the US would have 400,000 more test kits available on Monday, and 4 million more by the end of the week. So get ready for an explosion in US cases.

      More tech firms and banks are telling all employees who can to work from home until further notice.

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      In the UK, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is planning to lead an emergency meeting of the government on the virus a day after cases doubled in the UK to 273, while deaths have held steady at 3 since Saturday. On Monday, two new cases have been confirmed in Wales (marking 6 all together), while a healthcare professional at University Hospital Southampton has also tested positive, raising the national total to 276, per the BBC.

      Over the weekend, we saw the first signs of optimism out of South Korea, as the mayor of Daegu, the epicenter of the South Korean outbreak, reported a sharp drop in newly confirmed cases, evidence that the outbreak is slowing (since the South Koreans have been matched only by the Hong Kongers and Singaporeans in efficiency of testing), he said. The slowdown in new SK cases gave Italy the opportunity to snatch the crown, becoming the undisputed new global epidemic leader outside China (though the outbreak in Iran is certainly much more severe, however, the regime has chosen to hide the extent of deaths and confirmed cases).

      CNN adds that a construction worker contracted by the US military in Korea has tested positive for the coronavirus, making this the eighth USFK-related patient. An hour ago, South Korea confirmed 96 more cases, bringing national total to 7,478, marking a sharp slowdown in new cases.

       

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      As the quarantine across the Italian north enters its first business week, the total number of cases in Italy has hit 7,375, with 366 deaths. The situation is getting so bad, that riots are breaking out in Italian prisons, with one leaving 6 dead.

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      Courtesy of the BBC

      As an editorial writer for the Washington Post explains, current estimates suggest that it takes about a week for the number of cases to double, though there’s considerable uncertainty around the exact number. According to this principle, for each death, there are 49 other infections in the community when the patient who died became infected.

      That means, one week later, as that patient is seeing symptoms first emerge, that number has doubled to 98. After two weeks, when the patient is seeing his symptoms intensify, the number of community cases is 196. During week three, as the patient is lying on his or her deathbed, the number of community infections will have climbed to 396.

      In Iran, the head of the country’s Crisis Management Agency, Esmaeel Najjar, has been confirmed infected with the virus. Najjar was discharged from the hospital and has been self-quarantining at home, according to Iran’s ISNA state-controlled news agency.

      Offering a stark contrast to the panic that is engulfing Europe, Iran and the US, in China, Shanghai Disney has started “phased reopening” of some shopping and dining destinations have reopened, though the main park – Shanghai Disneyland – remains closed. Meanwhile, the first case of coronavirus has been confirmed among staff at Disneyland Paris, according to Le Parisien. The patient, who had been off sick since symptoms emerged days ago, is quarantining at home.

      Germany and France are each seeing the number of confirmed cases break above 1,000. Germany confirmed another 256 cases on Monday, bringing its national total to 1,112, according to the Robert Kock Institute, Germany disease-control agency. After banning gatherings with more than 1,000 people in attendance as we noted last night, French officials confirmed that the national total had climbed to 1,126, with more than 200 new cases. The death toll in France stands at 19, while the German outbreak, which is still mostly confined to Bavaria, specifically the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, hasn’t recorded any deaths.

      Cruise ships attempting to enter Puerto Rico must first certify that there are not coronavirus cases on board, Gov. Wanda Vazquez Garced claimed in a tweet on Sunday. This followed a local controversy that erupted after the Costa Luminosa, a cruise ship with a rumored sick passenger aboard, allowed its passengers to disembark in San Juan.

      The State Department has published a warning on Monday telling Americans not to travel on cruises, saying the US government can’t continue to intervene with passenger ships quarantined at sea.

      Finally, officials in China, who confirmed just 30 cases in Hubei late last night, have also confirmed that at least 11 have died following the collapse of a hotel being used as a quarantine that we reported on over the weekend. 80 were inside the building when it came down, while nine escaped, 71 were trapped. Of those, 50 have been pulled from the rubble, and 21 remained unaccounted for on Monday afternoon.

      In other new overnight developments, an American in Saudi Arabia has tested positive for the virus, according to the Saudi health ministry. The man had been travelling from the Philippines and Italy before arriving in the kingdom. Three others in al Qateef Province, including two Bahraini citizens, have also been infected. This comes after Saudi Arabia presided over the dissolution of OPEC and a ramped-up rivalry with Russia that has prompted the largest drop in oil prices since the early 90s Gulf War.

      Over in Oakland, the ‘Grand Princess’ cruise ship is preparing to dock at the Port of Oakland later in the day on Monday. The ship’s captain and Carnival-owned Princess cruises have said the disembarkation process will be “a multiple day process.”

      “Disembarkation will commence in order of priority, as defined and directed by both state and local authorities. It is expected to be a multiple day process,” said the release.

      “Once disembarkation of the guests is completed, the crew will remain onboard and Grand Princess will depart from San Francisco bay. Plans for a crew quarantine are still being determined.”

      We’ll be keeping a close eye on the situation in California and New York State, which is also seeing a surge in cases following an outbreak in a Westchester Jewish Community based in New Rochelle.


      Tyler Durden

      Mon, 03/09/2020 – 21:49

    • Hand Sanitizer Is Flying Off The Shelves For $79 And $109 A Bottle At One NYC Hardware Store
      Hand Sanitizer Is Flying Off The Shelves For $79 And $109 A Bottle At One NYC Hardware Store

      At the Scheman & Grant Hardware at Eighth Avenue and 38th Street, the coronavirus represents shameless economic opportunity to take full advantage of the law of supply and demand. 

      Taking advantage of the ongoing panic, S&G is now selling 1200 ml bottles of Purell – a bottle that regularly costs about $5.49 – for $79.00.

      And the price doesn’t seem to be deterring people from buying them, either. An employee at the store told the NY Post: “Everyone who comes in the store buys them. We sold about fifty of those today.”

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      The hardware store was also offering larger size 2 liter bottles of Purell for $109 each. It sold out of its supply. 

      Mayor Bill de Blasio, always eager to stick his nose into the affairs of someone else’s private business, commented that it “sounded like” price gouging. “I’d like my Department of Consumer Affairs to pay them a visit immediately,” de Blasio said.

      Reached for comment, an Ace Hardware representative (the parent corporation of the hardware store) said: “Retailers are independent businessmen and women with sole control over the operation of their business, including pricing decisions and policies.”

      Meanwhile, the rise in price reflects the extraordinary spike in demand for the product, which along with Lysol wipes, has risen 1400% from December to January, according to CBS. Laxman Narasimhan, CEO of Lysol parent Reckitt Benckiser said last week the company’s “people are working around the clock with consumers in mind.”

      One 29 year old restaurant worker in Times Square who noticed the prices while in the hardware store said: “It makes me mad, man. It’s not right what they’re doing. They’re taking advantage of everything that’s going on. My boss at work was talking about. He has to make his own hand sanitizer out of alcohol and aloe Vera because look at these prices.”

      Economist Peter Schiff had a different take on price gouging during the coronavirus panic.

      “People are raising prices for certain supplies. Well of course,” Schiff said Friday on the QTR podcast. “Demand’s going up. Of course you’re going to raise prices! What are you supposed to do? If you don’t raise prices, all of your stuff is going to get bought by a few people who are then going to hoard it or resell it on the black market. Prices are a rationing mechanism.” 

      Meanwhile:

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      Tyler Durden

      Mon, 03/09/2020 – 21:45

    • All 3 US Cities Hit By COVID-19 Show Markedly Lower Weekend Traffic
      All 3 US Cities Hit By COVID-19 Show Markedly Lower Weekend Traffic

      Almost one month ago, we first looked at TomTom traffic congestion data across various Chinese cities (and a handful of US “control” cities) to assess the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the broader economy. Overnight, DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas took the TomTom data in his analysis of not only China, but also Italy and that other cluster of covid-19 cases, the U.S.

      Here is what he found, from his latest Morning Briefing note to clients.

      We continue to track traffic congestion around the world as a real-time measure of COVID-19’s impact on the global economy. This weekend’s data shows how the virus is affecting consumer demand, in comparison to weekday volumes that highlight commutation patterns. Today we will review the data from 9 major cities around the world, all touched by the virus but at various stages of reaction to the health threat.

      First, here is the 7-day data for Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen (recent week in red, 1-year averages in light blue):

      Beijing:

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      Shanghai:

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      Shenzhen:

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      Takeaway: while weekday traffic is getting back to normal, weekend congestion is essentially zero in Beijing and Shanghai although somewhat better in Shenzhen. China is clearly getting back to work but leisure travel/shopping is still not yet reaccelerating.

      Now, here are Milan, Rome and Paris:

      Milan:

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      Rome:

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      Paris:

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      Takeaway: the northern Italian quarantine is not affecting Milan’s traffic as much as China’s weekend data shows, but Roman congestion shows a marked slowing of economic activity starting Thursday and Paris was well below trend this weekend.

      Finally, here are Seattle, San Francisco and New York:

      Seattle:

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      San Francisco:

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      New York:

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      Takeaway: all 3 US cities affected by COVID-19 show markedly lower weekend traffic than average, and the generally subpar congestion during the middle/later part of the workweek tells us this is not due to the sorts of seasonal patterns we mentioned in our “Markets” section.

      The upshot from all this: as capital markets have already started to discount, the global consumer is quickly retrenching, led by individuals who live in a city where COVID-19 has taken hold.


      Tyler Durden

      Mon, 03/09/2020 – 21:25

    • First Virus-Related Hate Crime? Man Wearing Surgical Mask Stabs Asian In NYC
      First Virus-Related Hate Crime? Man Wearing Surgical Mask Stabs Asian In NYC

      A man wearing a surgical mask stabbed an Asian man in Brooklyn, New York, more than a dozen times over the weekend, reported the New York Post. 

      NYPD sources told The Post that the incident occurred on Saturday evening, around 8th Avenue, could be one of the first Covid-19-related hate crimes in the country. NYPD later tweeted that there was “absolutely no nexus between the attack and the coronavirus.” 

      Li Qianyang, 48, was walking down 8th Avenue on Saturday evening when a man wearing a surgical mask stabbed him 13 times, the police said. 

      A police source told The Post that the attacker “was on top of him stabbing him.” 

      “One guy was chasing the other guy, and caught up with him outside,” a store owner told the Post. “He stabbed him so many times, and I’m amazed he survived.”

      First responders found Qianyang in a pool of blood, and it was reported that the attacker stabbed him in the heart. He was immediately taken to Lutheran Medical Center and remained in critical condition. 

      Video of the incident was recorded on a mobile phone, which shows how the attack played out. It appears the assailant had no interest in robbing the man but instead wanted Qianyang dead for reasons that are still unknown

      If this incident were indeed a Covid-19-related hate crime, it would be the first in the country. Everyone in New York City is on edge as virus cases in the tri-state area have jumped 200% since Friday, from 49 cases to now 150.


      Tyler Durden

      Mon, 03/09/2020 – 21:05

    • Standard Chartered: Only A Combination Of Low Rates And Fiscal Stimulus Has A Chance Of Working
      Standard Chartered: Only A Combination Of Low Rates And Fiscal Stimulus Has A Chance Of Working

      With investor expectations for an imminent rate cut to 0% (or lower) running high, only surpassed by expectations for an imminent – and “very, very substantial” fiscal stimulus – Standard Chartered’s head of FX strategy Steve Englander has an unorthodox take: neither may be sufficient.

      As Englander writes in a note titled “Emptying the monetary policy cupboard?”, while the Fed may think that aggressively reducing policy rates is a prerequisite to fiscal policy, investors are sceptical that monetary policy is effective (and perhaps so is the Fed). But since “the FOMC may feel that fiscal stimulus is practical politically only if monetary policy is maxed out”, the combination of low rates and fiscal stimulus may be the key to enabling borrowers to meet obligations, according to the FX strategist.

      In terms of monetary expectations, Englander does not see the Fed doing anything too crazy, and expects the Fed to ease 25bps at its March and April meetings Fed easing likely in March and April, but as he admits, “recent Fed comments and asset market selling have led to markets pricing in just under 60bps for the March meeting.” Indeed, markets now price in end-April fed funds rates below 40bps. However, the problem is that per discussions with clients there is “little confidence that easier money will lead to a rapid economic rebound; many feel that that the recent 50bps move may have been ‘wasted’.“

      As such, and given economic and credit market concerns, fiscal policy will likely be more effective than monetary policy, according to Englander. To be sure, Fed officials have argued that lower rates will lead to mortgage refinancing, among other activity spurs. But the counterargument to more monetary easing (absent Quaranatative Easing of course) is that neither consumer durables spending nor plant and equipment investment will likely be much affected by lower interest rates when uncertainty is so elevated.

      Here’s the problem: as the Std Chartered strategist admits, “Fiscal stimulus may not be significantly effective, either, in generating additional spending. A tax cut that increases disposable income or business cash flow might not increase spending. However, it may enable businesses and households to avoid a major credit crunch, when payments are due but the expected revenues are not there.”

      The impact of fiscal stimulus via lower taxes may be less in generating additional spending than in substituting federal government credit, which is looking pretty good, for private-sector credit, where market concerns are beginning to emerge.

      And while this would not be a free lunch, but might be the cheapest eats out there as the objective of fiscal easing would be to keep households and businesses solvent so that supply and demand can bounce back quickly once the coronavirus abates.

      There is another consideration when expecting a major fiscal stimulus: the US elections and the lack of cooperation between Republicans and Democrats complicate reaching agreement on fiscal matters. As we saw in 2008, there can be cooperation even in an election year, when the political costs of not cooperating are sufficiently high. However, other policy options have to be exhausted.

      These considerations make a rapid response essential according to Englander, who cautions that the cost of repairing private-sector solvency, once impaired, is much greater than maintaining solvency by acting quickly. While the Fed has discussed fiscal policy in general terms, but has not come out squarely in its favor. However, in recent days we see signals of more urgency than we or the market expected in comments by Fed officials. As such, Friday’s comments by Boston Fed President Rosengren on the possibility of the Fed buying assets other than Treasuries can be seen in a similar light (although it is not clear if the Fed would just buy stocks or also barrels of oil after Monday’s record plunge).In any case, by narrowing the spread with already low-yielding US Treasuries, such purchases would directly reduce debt-servicing burdens.

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      Meanwhile, confirming the open-ended nature of the upcoming stimulus, St Louis Fed President James Bullard has made several television appearance in recent days with the message: “”Everything is on the table, we’re willing to do more,” and “We can meet at any time and move at any time in this situation” as he appeared to de-emphasise the March meeting, “I just don’t want people to focus so heavily on that particular day because the FOMC has already shown, Jay Powell has already shown, we can move between meetings.” And while Bullard says that the Fed could ease either before or after the March meeting, neither Englander nor others see “much to be gained by the Fed encouraging market speculation that the Fed would disappoint.”

      Putting this together, the logic is to clear the table of monetary policy so that the focus can shift to fiscal policy – which is likely to be more effective. Any fiscal measures are likely to involve some government spending in order to help steady employment. If this analysis is correct, measures will include a heavy dose of temporary tax reductions to improve cash flow and enable private-sector firms and households to stay current on debt servicing. Meanwhile, “the Fed’s contribution would be to enable the government to increase its debt burden on as favourable terms as possible.”


      Tyler Durden

      Mon, 03/09/2020 – 20:45

    • MSNBC Journalist Claims Calling Covid-19 "Wuhan Virus" Is Racist
      MSNBC Journalist Claims Calling Covid-19 “Wuhan Virus” Is Racist

      Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

      MSNBC journalist David Gura claims that referring to coronavirus as the “Wuhan virus” is racist despite the fact that virtually every other virus was named after its geographical origin.

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      “FYI: Calling #COVID19 the “Wuhan Virus” is racist,” commented Gura in a tweet that received 25,000 likes.

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      He was immediately reminded of the fact that virtually every major virus in recent and not so recent history was named after the geographical region from which it emerged.

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

      The mainstream media also repeatedly called COVID19 the “Wuhan virus” for weeks on end.

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

      Even Chinese news sources refer to it as the “Wuhan virus.”

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

      “FYI: Being patronizing and paternalistic about everything that involves anyone non-white is racist,” responded one Twitter user.

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

      Gura’s comments are part of the continuing effort to patrol language in relation to the coronavirus outbreak.

      The World Health Organization has repeatedly issued statements demanding people avoid profiling or using certain words to describe the virus in order to avoid “stigmatizing” people.

      Perhaps if health authorities and the media concentrated wholly on preventing a global pandemic rather than policing words, we’d be in a better position.

       

      https://infowarsmedia.com/js/player.js

      *  *  *

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      Tyler Durden

      Mon, 03/09/2020 – 20:25

    • Oil, Stocks Rip Higher After Trump Promises "Very Dramatic" Actions To Support The Economy
      Oil, Stocks Rip Higher After Trump Promises “Very Dramatic” Actions To Support The Economy

      After almost the biggest single-day drop since Black Monday, it is hardly surprising that markets are bouncing back a little and all it took was the promise of ‘very very substantial’ relief to hard-working Americans hurt by the impact of the virus.

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      During the daily virus update press conference, President Donald Trump said his administration will discuss a possible payroll tax cut with the U.S. Senate, saying they would seek “very very substantial relief” for the economy that has been roiled by the outbreak of coronavirus.

      Trump, speaking at a White House news conference, added his administration plans to speak with lawmakers on Tuesday, seeking the aid to help hourly wage earners “so they don’t get penalized for something that’s not their fault.”

      The president also said he that he plans to announce “very dramatic” actions to support the economy at a press conference on Tuesday.

      And just like that WTI is up 4%…

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      And Dow futures are up over 400 points…

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      We wouldn’t hold our breath however, as we noted previously, the idea that Democrat-controlled Congress would ‘help’ is beyond a joke and in fact it could corner the President. If he comes asking for a payrolls tax-cut “for the people,” Democrats can easily respond “sure, just unwind the corporate tax cuts to pay for it and it’s a done deal.”

      But of course that will crush the stock market – which is the only thing really matters – and so Trump will refuse and Dems can play the “see, he doesn’t work for the ‘little people’ card.”

      Meanwhile, Daily Caller reporter Chuck Ross asked an excelent question:

      “Confused why, from an expectations management standpoint, the White House isn’t letting public know that there will be a spike in COVID cases as testing ramps up.”

      We can only imagine what that sudden jump will do markets.

      Additionally, it appears Mnuchin ‘made the call’ again…

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      As CNBC’s Wilfred ZFrost reports that I can confirm that the White House meeting with bank CEO’s will be on Wednesday at 3p ET. The nation’s biggest 7 banks have all been invited – maybe more too. I know at least 2 will send their CEO – I imagine all (other than JPM) will do so. Some industry bodies like ABA invited.


      Tyler Durden

      Mon, 03/09/2020 – 20:06

    • To Avoid 'Mass Hysteria', Amazon, Facebook Ban Ads For 'Viral' Products
      To Avoid ‘Mass Hysteria’, Amazon, Facebook Ban Ads For ‘Viral’ Products

      All of a sudden, people are panic buying virus-related prevention products, such as N-95 respirators and surgical masks, Purell hand sanitizer, and disinfectants, amid the Covid-19 outbreak in the US. Many of these items have seen shortages at big-box retailers and on e-commerce platforms. The remaining supply has been shifted to Amazon, eBay, Craigslist, prepping sites, and or other e-commerce platforms, have seen prices skyrocket in the last several months. 

      Price gouging of virus-related products has become a significant issue since confirmed cases in China began to soar in mid-January. We noted how 3M N-95 masks were becoming short supply at the start of the year. Now prices have jumped nearly 10x in some cases; a box of 20 3M N-95 masks is going for more than $200 on some websites. 

      In the name of price gouging and just overall censorship of the virus, Facebook last Friday said it would block commerce listings and advertisements for respirators and surgical masks.

      “We’re monitoring COVID19 closely and will make necessary updates to our policies if we see people trying to exploit this public health emergency,” Facebook Director of Product Management Rob Leathern tweeted. “We’ll start rolling out this change in the days ahead.”

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

      “We are temporarily banning advertisements and commerce listings that sell medical face masks,” a Facebook spokesperson said last week. “Our teams are monitoring the COVID19 situation closely and will make necessary updates to our policies if we see people trying to exploit this public health emergency.”

      Facebook will also ban ads that imply medical products are in limited supply, as well as make claims about virus “cures” or prevention. The social media website will remove virus-themed groups and pages from its algorithmic recommendations.

      On Friday, Google said it was blocking all ads that were virus-themed products. It said it has so far blocked tens of thousands of ads over the last month and a half. YouTube has also removed the content of virus prevention products. 

      eBay announced last week that N-95 and N-100 masks, sanitizers, and alcohol wipes would be forbidden on the online auction site. 

      Amazon said it’s working on banning sellers that are price-gouging customers. 

      The narrative by big tech companies is that price gouging is evil, and censoring and banning products from platforms are the solutions to protect consumers. But in reality, this is just a ploy to censor the virus and prevent further mass hysteria. The less you know, the less you panic, and the more compliant you will become too big government who tells you: “it’s just the flu bro.” 


      Tyler Durden

      Mon, 03/09/2020 – 20:05

    • Scientists Warn About Dangerous "Tipping Point" Where Covid-19 Goes From Mild To Deadly
      Scientists Warn About Dangerous “Tipping Point” Where Covid-19 Goes From Mild To Deadly

      As researchers, doctors and epidemiologists spend more time studying the coronavirus under a microscope, as well as in the 100k+ infections that have yielded reams of useful data, a troubling trend has emerged: researchers have identified a “tipping point” at which the virus goes from dangerous to deadly in extremely susceptible patients.

      According to research, while many patients experience nothing more than a mild cold, one in seven patients develops difficulty breathing and other “severe” complications, while 6% become critically ill and require hospitalization to stabilize their condition, risking death if they can’t receive the highest level of care.

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      Patients in these life-threatening situations typically suffer from respiratory and other vital system failures, according to the report by a team of WHO researchers delivered last month. Sometimes, sufferers can even experience sceptic shock.

      Since roughly 10-15% of mild-to-moderate patients progress to this next severe state, it’s important for hospitals and doctors to understand which patients are at highest risk of a worsening infection so they can factor this into their risk assessments and direct resources and attention accordingly. Because of these 10-15%, 15% to 20% of that group may progress to critically severe infection stage requiring the highest level of attention and care to save a life.

      Patients at highest risk include people at age 60 and older and those with pre-existing conditions such as hypertension, diabetes and cardiovascular disease.

      This type of triage should at least be familiar to most doctors since it resembles the infection profile of the seasonal flu, albiet with more patients progressing to the final most critical stage, said Jeffery K. Taubenberger.

      When everything goes well, white blood cells attack the virus and lock the infection down within a few days.

      Infection generally starts in the nose. Once inside the body, the coronavirus invades the epithelial cells that line and protect the respiratory tract, said Taubenberger, who heads the viral pathogenesis and evolution section of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in Bethesda, Maryland. If it’s contained in the upper airway, it usually results in a less severe disease.

      But if the virus treks down the windpipe to the peripheral branches of the respiratory tree and lung tissue, it can trigger a more severe phase of the disease. That’s due to the pneumonia-causing damage inflicted directly by the virus plus secondary damage caused by the body’s immune response to the infection.

      “Your body is immediately trying to repair the damage in the lung as soon as it’s happening,” Taubenberger said. Various white blood cells that consume pathogens and help heal damaged tissue act as first-responders. “Normally, if this goes well, you can clear up your infection in just a few days.”

      But if this doesn’t happen, if the virus persists, and continues to attack the tissue of the nose and throat, at some point, it will become more difficult for the body to fight off a secondary bacterial infection. Such secondary bacterial infections are particularly dangerous because they can damage the stem cells in the lungs, basically making it impossible for a patient’s lungs to heal.

      Secondary bacterial infections represent an especially pernicious threat because they can kill critical respiratory tract stem cells that enable tissue to rejuvenate. Without them, “you just can’t physically repair your lungs,” Taubenberger said. Damaged lungs can starve vital organs of oxygen, impairing the kidneys, liver, brain and heart.

      “When you get a bad, overwhelming infection, everything starts to fall apart in a cascade,” said David Morens, senior scientific adviser to the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. “You pass the tipping point where everything is going downhill and, at some point, you can’t get it back.”

      That tipping point probably also occurs earlier in older people, as it does in experiments with older mice, said Stanley Perlman, a professor of microbiology and immunology at the University of Iowa in Iowa City, who has studied coronaviruses for 38 years.

      But this isn’t the only way things can go wrong. Even healthy younger adults have succumbed to the virus, including Dr. Li Wenliang, the 34-year-old ophthalmologist who was one of the first to warn about the coronavirus in Wuhan. He died after receiving antibodies, antivirals, antibiotics, oxygen and having his blood pumped through an artificial lung. Scientists have theorized that some people have more of the distinctly shaped protein receptors in their respiratory epithelial cells that the virus targets.


      Tyler Durden

      Mon, 03/09/2020 – 19:45

    Digest powered by RSS Digest

    Mar 09

    Today’s News 9th March 2020

    • Leaked Quarantine Plans Create Chaos As Panicked Italians Sprint For The Exits, Threatening To Spread Virus
      Leaked Quarantine Plans Create Chaos As Panicked Italians Sprint For The Exits, Threatening To Spread Virus

      As the quarantine begins across the Italian north on Sunday, virology experts at the WHO, CDC and at universities around the world are waiting to see if Rome’s crackdown – coming a little too late, as many have pointed out, given the last two days’ worth of massive increases in the national case total – will work.

      With the rules in place until April 3, Bloomberg points out, whether the public and local police and officials go along with the orders will ultimately determine whether they are successful or not.

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      Italians have become inured to alarming news over the past month as the outbreak has spiraled out of control in Lombardy. But following  a flurry of uncontrolled leaks warning about an imminent lockdown as part of the government’s planned emergency decree, restaurants and bars started emptying out and many fled to the train station, where they hopped trains to get out of the region, especially those who had plans to travel elsewhere that were being interrupted by the lockdown.

      According to an SCMP reporter in Padua, packed bars and restaurants quickly emptied out as news of a coming lockdown hit, as many people rushed to the railway station. Travellers with suitcases, wearing face masks, gloves and carrying bottles of sanitising gel shoved their way on to the local train.

      This appears to have been a phenomenon across the North. The video shows passengers with large bags packed heading toward a cross-country train to take them out of the quarantine zone and into the Italian south, where the virus has penetrated, but infection numbers and deaths remain much lower than in the north.

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      This could be terrible news for the impoverished south: experts have repeatedly warned that southern Italy – best known as an agricultural and fishing center rife with organized crime – doesn’t possess the medical infrastructure to handle a surge in life-threatening cases of pneumonia.

      While Andrew Cuomo has repeatedly insisted during his seemingly never-ending series of press conferences that the panic is worse than the virus itself, in Italy, the situation is rapidly deteriorating on both fronts. One epidemiologist described the series of panic-provoking leaks as “pure madness.”

      Fortunately, Italian markets were closed during the panic, and now people have more or less accepted the new rules. But at this point, the horse is already out of the barn. Panicked Italians are now traveling around the country, potentially bringing the virus with them.

      “The draft of a very harsh decree is leaked, sparking panic and prompting people to try and flee the [then] theoretical red zone, carrying the virus with them,” wrote Italian virologist Roberto Burioni on Twitter. “In the end, the only effect is to help the virus to spread. I’m lost for words.”

      However, especially now that the panic has scattered northern Italians across the country, Alitalia is cancelling international flights, but leaving domestic travel uninterrupted (even as fares plummet as Italians mostly shun traveling during the outbreak). But as Bloomberg reports, whether these new intense restrictions impacting nearly 17 million Italians will be enforced and obeyed remains to be seen.

      The most salient details of the Italian quarantine are as follows: In the quarantine region, weddings and funerals have been suspended, as well as religious and cultural events. Cinemas, night clubs, gyms, swimming pools, museums and ski resorts have been closed. Restaurants and cafes in the quarantined zones can open between 06:00 and 18:00 but customers must sit at least 1m (3ft) apart. People have been told to stay at home as much as possible, the BBC reports.

      Those who willingly decide to break the quarantine could face three months in jail.

      Restrictions apply to all of the Lombardy region, which includes many of Italy’s largest cities and most economically important provinces. According to Turkey’s Anadolou News Agency, along with Lombardy, the quarantine includes the cities of Modena, Parma, Piacenza, Reggio Emilia, Rimini, Pesaro e Urbino, Alessandria, Asti, Novara, Verbano Cusio Ossola, Vercelli, Padova, Treviso and Venice.

      The order mostly impacts Lombardy, the region around Milan, as well as vast swathes of Piedmont, Veneto, Emilia Romagna and Marche. Venice is part of the affected zone, while Turin, home to the Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV headquarters, is outside, according to Bloomberg.PM Giuseppe Conte said sports matches will be held without crowds, and that schools in all quarantined locations will be on break until April 3.

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      Outside the quarantine zone, the decree issues new regulations for the rest of the country, including a recommendation to avoid travel outside home towns unless absolutely necessary, enforcing “social distancing” of one meter in all public venues – that is, encouraging people to stand roughly four feet away from one another – and restricting public events from demonstrations to theater shows.

      Elderly people are advised to stay home, and schools and universities will remain closed nationwide until March 15.

      Some regions have voiced resistance to different aspects of the order. The Veneto region opposes the inclusion of the Padua, Treviso and Venice provinces in the decree, according to a statement published by Ansa, according to Bloomberg.

      Maurizio Rasero, the mayor of Asti, which is in the affected zone, denounced the quarantines as “madness, a disaster we didn’t expect.”

      But even in southern Italy where, as we noted above, the outbreak isn’t yet widespread, local governments are taking steps to stop its arrival. The province of Puglia has ordered 14-day quarantines for all entering the province from an affected area. Regional president Michele Emiliano went a step further, telling northerners traveling to his town to turn around and go back.

      Even before the outbreak, Italy’s economy was tipping into contraction. Now, the crisis has all but paralyzed business activity in Lombardy, which accounts for one-fifth of the country’s GDP, as well as the rest of the north, which is generally speaking more economically productive than the Italian south.

      The impact is clear even in other regions that aren’t subject to the stricter controls. The Pompeii archaeological site near Naples and the Vatican museums are closed until April 3, and an exhibit of Renaissance master Raphael in Rome was halted.

      In Rome, the government has decided on Thursday to double emergency spending to 7.5 billion euros ($8.5 billion) to help cushion the economic impact of the virus. It’s also calling up 20,000 doctors, nurses and medical personnel to help deal with the outbreak. Fallout from the virus’s spread is slamming Italy’s key tourism industry, which is worth almost 15% of GDP, at a time when the country is already teetering on the brink of recession.

      Sensing the looming threat to economic stability, the EU is playing ball, advising the Italians that their stimulus spending won’t be counted against the bloc’s budgetary thresholds. But will Berlin and Frankfurt play ball when it comes to loosening Germany’s purse strings in violation of the constitutional ‘debt break’?


      Tyler Durden

      Mon, 03/09/2020 – 02:45

    • Escobar: How Putin Saved Europe From Invasion & Erdogan From Himself
      Escobar: How Putin Saved Europe From Invasion & Erdogan From Himself

      Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Asia Times,

      Once again it was Russia that just prevented the threatened ‘Muslim invasion’ of Europe advertised by Erdogan…

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      At the start of their discussion marathon in Moscow on Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with arguably the most extraordinary diplomatic gambit of the young 21st century.

      Putin said:

      “At the beginning of our meeting, I would like to once again express my sincere condolences over the death of your servicemen in Syria. Unfortunately, as I have already told you during our phone call, nobody, including Syrian troops, had known their whereabouts.”

      This is how a true world leader tells a regional leader, to his face, to please refrain from positioning his forces as jihadi supporters – incognito, in the middle of an explosive theater of war.

      The Putin-Erdogan face-to-face discussion, with only interpreters allowed in the room, lasted three hours, before another hour with the respective delegations. In the end, it all came down to Putin selling an elegant way for Erdogan to save face – in the form of, what else, yet another ceasefire in Idlib, which started at midnight on Thursday, signed in Turkish, Russian and English – “all texts having equal legal force.”

      Additionally, on March 15, joint Turkish-Russian patrolling will start along the M4 highway – implying endless mutating strands of al-Qaeda in Syria won’t be allowed to retake it.

      If this all looks like déjà vu, that’s because it is. Quite a few official photos of the Moscow meeting prominently feature Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu – the other two heavyweights in the room apart from both Presidents. In the wake of Putin, Lavrov and Shoigu must have read the riot act to Erdogan in no uncertain terms. That’s enough: now behave, please – or else face dire consequences.

      The second Ataturk

      A predictable feature of the new ceasefire is that both Moscow and Ankara – part of the Astana peace process, alongside Tehran – remain committed to maintaining the “territorial integrity and sovereignty” of Syria. Once again, there’s no guarantee that Erdogan will abide.

      It’s crucial to recap the basics. Turkey is deep in financial crisis. Ankara needs cash – badly. The lira is collapsing. The Justice and Development Party (AKP) is losing elections. Former prime minister and party leader Ahmet Davutoglu – who conceptualized neo-Ottomanism – has left the party and is carving his own political niche. The AKP is mired in an internal crisis.

      Erdogan’s response has been to go on the offensive. That’s how he re-establishes his aura. Combine Idlib with his maritime pretensions around Cyprus and blackmail pressure on the EU via the inundation of Lesbos in Greece with refugees, and we have Erdogan’s trademark modus operandi in full swing.

      In theory, the new ceasefire will force Erdogan to finally abandon all those myriad al Nusra/ISIS metastases – what the West calls “moderate rebels,” duly weaponized by Ankara. This is an absolute red line for Moscow – and also for Damascus. There will be no territory left behind for jihadis. Iraq is another story: ISIS is still lurking around Kirkuk and Mosul.

      No NATO fanatic will ever admit it, but once again it was Russia that just prevented the threatened “Muslim invasion” of Europe advertised by Erdogan. Yet there was never any invasion in the first place, only a few thousand economic migrants from Afghanistan, Pakistan and the Sahel, not Syrians. There are no “one million” Syrian refugees on the verge of entering the EU.

      The EU, proverbially, will keep blabbering. Brussels and most capitals still have not understood that Bashar al-Assad has been fighting al Nusra/ISIS all along. They simply don’t understand the correlation of forces on the ground. Their fallback position is always the scratched CD of “European values.” No wonder the EU is a secondary actor in the whole Syrian tragedy.

      I received excellent feedback from progressive Turkish analysts as I attempted to connect Erdogan Khan’s motivations with Turkey’s history and the empires of he steppes.

      Their argument, essentially, is that Erdogan is an internationalist, but in Islamic terms only. Since 2000 he has managed to create a climate of denying ancient Turkish nationalist motives. He does use Turkishness, but as one analyst stresses, “he has nothing to do with ancient Turks. He’s an Ikhwani. He doesn’t care about Kurds either, as long as they are his ‘good Islamists.’”

      Another analyst points out that, “in modern Turkey, being ‘Turkish’ is not related to race, because most Turkish people are Anatolian, a mixed population.”

      So, in a nutshell, what Erdogan cares about is Idlib, Aleppo, Damascus, Mecca and not Southwest Asia or Central Asia. He wants to be “the second Ataturk.” Yet nobody except Islamists sees him this way – and “sometimes he shows his anger because of this. His only aim is to beat Ataturk and create an Islamic opposite of Ataturk.” And creating that anti-Ataturk would be via neo-Ottomanism.

      Crack independent historian Dr Can Erimtan, whom I had the pleasure to meet when he still lived in Istanbul (he’s now in self-exile), offers a sweeping Eurasianist background to Erdogan’s dreams. Well, Vladimir Putin has just offered the second Ataturk some breathing room. All bets are off on whether the new ceasefire will metastasize into a funeral pyre.


      Tyler Durden

      Mon, 03/09/2020 – 02:00

    • Europe Must Not Fall Victim To Erdogan's Blackmail
      Europe Must Not Fall Victim To Erdogan’s Blackmail

      Authored by Burak Bekdil via The Gatestone Institute,

      Turkey’s Islamist strongman, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has threatened Europe several times with “sending millions of refugees your way.”

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      Turkey would apparently like to see more progress in the talks to grant it admission as a full member of the European Union. At the moment, these membership negotiations have stalled. He may also wish for Western support — from the EU, the United States and all of NATO — for his ideal architecture to install Turkey in northwest Syria.

      As Turkish servicemen were recently killed in Syria, with direct Russian military involvement, it is probably safe to assume that the support Erdoğan is seeking, both directly and indirectly, is “support for a NATO ally against Russian aggression”. In addition, Erdoğan would also most certainly like the West overlook his massive democratic deficit, and to help Turkey secure even more dominance over the Greek islands off its coast, as well as its claims on the gas fields beneath the eastern Mediterranean.

      On February 27, the Turkish government finally pressed the button to execute the threat: Millions of (mostly Syrian) migrants on Turkish soil were now free to travel to Europe; Turkish border gates were now open.

      Why did Erdoğan decide now to resort to the “nuclear option” in his country’s deeply problematic relations with the European Union? It seems, bizarrely, that Erdoğan decided to punish the EU because he was angry with… Russia.

      When, on February 27, Syrian forces, backed by Russian air support, killed 34 Turkish soldiers in the Idlib area in northwestern Syria, the event seems to have sent shock waves through a Turkish public, who were already split: between a fiercely nationalistic rhetoric that supports the “heroic mission” that took Turkish troops into Syria, and a rational questioning of the wisdom of confronting Syria and Russia — and Iran — in what looks increasingly like a Syrian quagmire. There also may well have been concerns that public unrest over coffins wrapped in the crescent and star flag could erode Erdoğan’s declining popularity even further.

      For Turkey, open confrontation with Russia is not an option. In November 2015, the last time Turkey tried punishing Russia, which had placed sanctions on Turkish businesses after Turkey downed a Russian jet, the move brought Erdoğan to his knees: in a rare show of repentance, Erdoğan apologized to Russian President Vladimir Putin for having brought down the Russian Su-24 fighter jet in Syrian airspace.

      A marriage of convenience followed: Cold War-era foes became “strategic partners” — a title crowned by a deal that Turkey would buy Russian-made S-400 surface-to-air defense systems at the expense of Turkey’s defense procurement bond with its NATO allies. Since the Su-24 crisis, Russia, for Erdoğan, has remained “untouchable.”

      Cornered by an angry public after the deaths of the 34 soldiers, Erdoğan needed to find a non-Russian adversary to attack, to distract Turkish anger away from him and toward a different chosen target. What better target than the EU, with which most Turks have a love-hate relationship? Opening Turkey’s border gates and flooding Europe with migrants would be sure to please the average Turk, who hates to be living with 3.6 million or so Syrian refugees and — to benefit the chauvinistic Turkish psyche — loves the idea of teaching the Europeans a lesson. The masses always seem to love it when their leaders resort to hostile and patronizing rhetoric against the Europeans.

      Echoing Erdoğan’s “angry-in-Syria-but-hitting-Europe” psychology, Turkish Foreign Ministry Spokesman Hamdi Aksoy warned Western nations, including the EU, that if the situation in Idlib deteriorates — in other words, if you do not help us in Idlib you will have even more refugees on your doorstep — the wave of refugees and migrants could continue.

      “Some asylum-seekers and migrants in our country, worried about developments, have begun to move toward our western borders,” Askoy said. “If the situation worsens, this risk will continue to increase”.

      Ömer Çelik, a spokesman for Erdogan’s ruling party, concurred. “Turkey is no longer able to hold the refugees,” he said.

      Tens of thousands of these migrants (not only Syrians) were given free bus rides from Istanbul to Turkey’s land borders with Bulgaria and Greece, about 150 miles west of the city.

      Turkish Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu chimed in on March 1, that, in a span of three days, 100,000 refugees had already crossed the borders into Europe, but his declaration seems to have been more propaganda talk than reality. The whole effort looked more like a media stunt than a genuine, well-planned campaign to send hundreds of thousands of migrants into Europe. (In 2015, when the migrant crisis was at its peak, an average 10,000 people a day landed in Greece.)

      Shortly after Erdoğan announced his move to open Turkey’s floodgates, Greece shut down its land and maritime borders with Turkey. At the border crossing, hundreds of migrants, in a situation that is truly tragic, faced barbed wire fences and smoke grenades. Some migrants, stuck in the no-man’s land between Turkey and Greece, tried, to escape the smoke, to return to the Turkish side, only to be turned back by the authorities there.

      Greece, meanwhile, said that its security forces had prevented 7,000 migrants from entering Greek territory by land at the border crossing. “The Greek government will do whatever it takes to safeguard its territory and protect the European borders,” government spokesman Stelios Petsas announced. Athens then mobilized additional troops at the border crossing. By the weekend of February 28, Greece was operating 52 Navy ships to guard its islands close to Turkey. On March 1, furious migrants clashed with Greek riot police. Officers fired tear gas at the migrants; some, as they sought to force their way into Greece, threw rocks at the police and wielded metal bars against them.

      Landings on Greece’s islands appeared to be quieter. Greek police said that at least 500 people had arrived by sea on the islands of Lesbos, Chios and Samos, near the Turkish coast, within a few hours. On Lesbos, locals prevented a boat full of migrants from landing.

      Meanwhile Frontex, the EU’s border protection agency, said it was on high alert and had deployed extra support to Greece. “We … have raised the alert level for all borders with Turkey to high,” a Frontex spokeswoman said. “We have received a request from Greece for additional support. We have already taken steps to redeploy to Greece technical equipment and additional officers”.

      Europe, unfortunately, to protect its liberty and sovereignty, needs to fight back. It must refuse to accept Erdoğan’s hostages. Securing maritime borders in the Aegean Sea is often a difficult and expensive task, but not militarily impossible. If the first groups in this mini-exodus from Turkey face a serious blockade rather than warm and welcoming locals, potential migrants would be discouraged from taking such a perilous trip.

      What Greece alone could achieve, without help from the EU, would be limited: Greece has 1% of the EU’s population but is processing 11% of all asylum applications. Heavyweights from the EU should act quickly to help Greece and Bulgaria seal their borders with Turkey — by financing border security programs, sending additional patrolling personnel and equipment, and by transferring technology and gear for a safer border between Turkey and Europe.


      Tyler Durden

      Mon, 03/09/2020 – 01:15

    • Panic Purgatory: Oil Crashes To $27; S&P Futures Locked Limit Down, Treasuries Soar Limit Up Amid Historic Liquidation
      Panic Purgatory: Oil Crashes To $27; S&P Futures Locked Limit Down, Treasuries Soar Limit Up Amid Historic Liquidation

      The Sunday futures fiasco started off on the back foot, with virtually every risk asset that is not nailed down puking with a force unseen since the financial crisis. It has only gotten worse since.

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      While futures initially tumbled as much as 4.7% in the first minutes of trading, they have not only failed to find any BTFD support, but have been locked at the -5% limit down for nearly two hours with a brief interlude in which they rebounded modestly only to find another wave of buyers. As a reminder, even as thousands of offers build up, they can’t cross due to the limit down state of the Emini.

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      Amid this unprecedented crash in equities, 10Y Treasury futures have soared, and also for the first time in over a decade, were locked limit up for about an hour, at 139-29+, prompting a brief trading interruption…

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      … which however failed to do much, with the entire US Treasury curve – including the 30Y – trading not only below the effective fed funds rate, but also below 1.00% for the first time ever…

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      … as a sudden, furious flash crash just before 10pm ET in both the Australian dollar…

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      … and the USDJPY…

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      … most likely the result of a macro fund being margined out and liquidating carry positions, unleashed another bout of risk-off liquidation across asset classes.

      And so, with traders unable to either sell equity futures or buy Treasurys, they still can rush into the VIX, which is a long way away from its 70%+ limit up, a number which may be reached but would virtually assure another great depression.

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      The night’s big irony is that unable to sell anything else, funds – facing historic margin calls on Monday – are selling what they can… such as gold, which after hitting $1700 earlier in the session has tumbled 0.7% as more investors liquidate the safe asset to shore up liquidity ahead of a Monday that nobody will every forget… and in which many, most certainly anyone who was long oil, will lose their jobs.

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      Meanwhile, the asset that started the evening’s avalanche, crude, continues to crater with West Texas now trading with a $27-handle, down more than $15 (!) from Friday’s close.

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      Commenting on the unprecedented crash in oil, Pickering Energy’s Dan Pickering put the crash in perspective: “From OPEC share announcement in 2014 it took 14-15 months for oil to break $30 (Feb 2016)  This time it took less than 1 trading day.  Breathtaking!  Energy industry, welcome back to Hell.”

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      He is right, and nowhere more so than junk bonds: once markets open tomorrow (assuming they are not indefinitely halted), keep a close eye on HYG, which consists more than 10% of energy junk bonds, and is set to plunge by the most on record.

      And speaking of the plunge in crude (and “value” energy stocks), tomorrow we may also see the VIXtermination-like vaporization of 3x levered oil and E&P ETFs such as UWT and GUSH, for which the 30% drop in oil will be a liquidation event catalyst.

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      Curiously, not even a hail mary attempt by Bloomberg, which shortly before midnight blasted that “the Trump administration is drafting measures to blunt the economic fallout from coronavirus and help slow its spread in the U.S., including a temporary expansion of paid sick leave and possible help for companies facing disruption from the outbreak” had absolutely any impact on stocks.

      Why? Because not only will any fiscal stimulus less than $2-$3 trillion be roundly ignored by the market, but because at this moment there are only two question on every trader’s mind: at what time on Monday morning will the Fed announce a 50-100bps emergency rate cut – the second in under a week – and, more importantly, will it include the official resumption of QE, and potentially the launch of helicopter money i.e., MMT.

      Anything less than this would be a disappointment.

      And yet, even if the Fed vows to buy not only stocks but also oil, at this point what it is really buying is just time: time for those who still own financial assets to sell as much as they can before the Fed loses all control, having already lost credibility, culminating in the biggest crash in history.. and a market that is indefinitely halted.

      Finally, for all those Millennials who are shocked by this evening’s selloff, we leave the final word to the Stalingrad & Poorski twitter account, who put it best: “This is not crazy. What was crazy was the reckless monetary policies of central banks that led to this.”

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      Then again, as we have so often said, as long as those reckless policies pushed stocks – and the “wealth effect” higher – nobody cared. They will, however, care this time.


      Tyler Durden

      Mon, 03/09/2020 – 00:43

    • US Coronavirus Cases Surpass 500 As Italian Deaths Surge 57%: Live Updates
      US Coronavirus Cases Surpass 500 As Italian Deaths Surge 57%: Live Updates

      Summary:

      • Italy reports 2nd straight 1,000+ jump in cases, deaths jump 60%; mortality rate in Italy hits 5%
      • China daily numbers post another drop on Sunday
      • Albania confirms first two cases
      • Total US cases surpass 500
      • Portugal president goes into self-quarantine
      • New York State confirms 16 new cases bringing total north of 100
      • Santa Clara reports 5 more cases to 37
      • Mass confirms 15 more cases tied to Biogen conference
      • Mayor de Blasio says NYC could see hundreds of cases in 2-3 weeks
      • Death toll hits 21 as 2 more cases confirmed in Washington State
      • Oregon declares state of emergency
      • 16 million Italians wake up under quarantine
      • Egypt reports Africa’s first coronavirus death, a German citizen
      • Pope Francis cancels Sunday address
      • Dr. Fauci warns community spread is getting out of control.
      • ‘Grand Princess’ to dock in Oakland on Monday
      • Saudi Arabia quarantines province
      • France, Germany call for bans on events with over 1,000
      • Still no word on timing of when ‘Grand Princess’ will land
      • Patient in Japan develops meningitis
      • Spain death toll hits 17, 600+ cases
      • Cuomo says he wants to avoid closing NYC schools, transit if possible
      • Iran official death toll hits 194
      • Daegu Mayor says outbreak may be slowing as number of new cases falls

      * * *

      Update (2030ET): China has released its latest numbers, showing just 36 new cases in Hubei – another massive drop.

      • MAINLAND CHINA’S TOTAL NUMBER OF CORONAVIRUS DEATHS REACHES 3,119 AS OF END-MARCH 8
      • CHINA’S HUBEI PROVINCE, EPICENTRE OF CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK, REPORTS 36 NEW CASES ON MARCH 8 VS 41 ON MARCH 7

      Meanwhile, following several scares, the first two cases have been confirmed in Albania, a father and son who just returned from nearby Italy, according to Albanian health officials.

      Earlier on Sunday, President Ilir Meta has urged the Albanian government to take emergency measures against the spread of coronavirus in the country.

      * * *

      Update (1650ET): The office of Portugal’s 71-year-old President President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa said Sunday that he has canceled all public activities and will stay at home amid the coronavirus outbreak, after having recently received a group of students from a school which has since been closed after a student tested positive, ABC News reports.

      The infected student wasn’t included in the group who visited the president, and he has so far showed no symptoms.

      In Massachusetts, the number of “presumptively” confirmed cases has climbed to 27 as of Sunday, while one additional case has been confirmed by the CDC, according to the Boston Globe, for a total of 28.

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      So far, 23 of the 28 cases are related to a Biogen employee conference in late February.

      Officials said there are 27 presumptive positive coronavirus cases across the state, along with one confirmed case.

      The presumptive positive cases, five from Middlesex County ranging in age from 40 to 70, four cases from Norfolk County ranging in age from 40 to 70, and a female whose age and county of residence are presently unknown. The Boston Public Health Commission officials said the other five cases were Boston residents, a woman in her 30s, a woman in her 60s, a man in his 40s, a man in his 50s and a man in his 60s. All patients who tested presumptive positive are isolating at home, state officials said. As always, officials said the risk to the public remains low.

      Santa Clara County has reported 5 more cases, bringing its total to 37. Here, Cali health officials are giving their regular updates.

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      There are 512 cases of the virus in the US as of mid-day Sunday, according to the CDC, along with state and local authorities. Per the CDC there are 49 cases from repatriated citizens from Wuhan (3) and the Diamond Princess (46). Twenty-one are from the Grand Princess cruise ship. According to CNN, the tally of US cases that are detected and tested in the US through US public health systems there have been 442 cases in 33 states and Washington DC, bringing the total number of coronavirus cases to 512.

      * * *

      Update (1615ET): NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio just warned that there could be :”hundreds” of cases of Covid-19 in the city in a matter of two or three weeks, up from 13 now.

      • NEW YORK CITY COULD HAVE 100 CORONAVIRUS CASES WITHIN TWO TO THREE WEEKS, UP FROM 13 NOW -MAYOR DE BLASIO
      • NEW YORK CITY COULD AT SOME POINT HAVE HUNDREDS OF POSITIVE CORONAVIRUS CASES -MAYOR DE BLASIO

      He then claimed (without evidence) that smoking or vaping could make a person more susceptible.

      • SMOKING OR VAPING COULD MAKE PERSON MORE VULNERABLE TO CORONAVIRUS INFECTION – NEW YORK CITY MAYOR DE BLASIO

      Meanwhile, two more deaths in Washington State have increased the US death toll to 21, up from 19.

      The State Department is cautioning Americans, especially those with existing health conditions, not to travel by cruise ship, citing the increased risk of catching the virus.

      “Many countries have implemented screening procedures, denied port entry rights to ships and prevented disembarking,” they said in a tweet.

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      ABC News reports that two more people have died of Covid-19 in Washington state, citing local health officials.

      Both patients – a woman in her 80s and a man in his 90s – are Life Care Center residents, according to the King County Health Department. The woman died on Friday, and the man died on Thursday.

      Of the 18 deaths reported in Washington, 16 have been associated with Life Care nursing home facility.

      Two deaths have occurred in Florida and another in California, bringing the total in the US to 21.

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      Elsewhere in Florida, the Regal Princess cruise ship has been forced to remain offshore by the CDC and HHS while two of its crew members are tested for the virus.

      If one or both come back positive, that could mean the start of another cruise ship nightmare in the US.

      Officials in Clark County Nevada, an area that is mostly contiguous with Las Vegas, has confirmed its second patient.

      * * *

      Update (1530ET): Yesterday, we reported the six new cases of Covid-19 in British Columbia. 

      Now, officials in the province have identified another outbreak at a nursing home in the province, the second such outbreak in the Pacific Northwest, in addition to the nursing home in Kirkland, Washington. The pair was infected by a staff member at the Lynn Valley Care Center in North Vancouver. Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry said the facility is basically on lockdown as the provincial authorities try to keep the virus from spreading.

      As we head into the middle of the day in California, let’s circle back to the ‘Grand Princess’, the virus-plagued cruise ship drifting 20 nautical miles off the coast as it awaits plans to dock at the Port of Oakland on Monday. The ship’s captain, John Smith, said Sunday that the crew still doesn’t know at approximately what time they would be docking. Not that it matters: It will take at least a day for the non-priority (i.e. those not dying of Covid-19) passengers to exit the ship. And of course, anybody found to be infected will be quarantined, according to the Washington Post.

      The captain added that one passenger in dire need of hospitalization will be taken off the ship Sunday but government authorities have not yet told cruise officials when the remaining passengers would be able to arrive at port.

      “We know this will be a disappointment to you, and we share in that disappointment,” the captain said in a message that was shared with WaPo and the r/coronavirus board. “However, we are required to follow the government instructions.”

      More than 3,500 people are aboard the Grand Princess, and of the 46 tested for the coronavirus so far, 21 have tested positive. When the ship docks, the cruise line says, guests who are California residents will undergo health screenings and go to federal facilities in the state, while Americans from other states will be taken to locations elsewhere in the country. The crew will be quarantined and treated aboard, the cruise line said Saturday.

      The captain said the ship would rendezvous with a Coast Guard cutter to collect prescription medicines and other medications for people on board (one patient is reportedly in danger of missing vital chemo treatments. One of the passengers requires “shoreside hospital care,” he said, so that person will go to shore. The captain did not elaborate on the person’s condition or say whether the person was among those who tested positive.

      In France, as the number of confirmed cases grows, officials have called for a ban on events with over 1,000 attendees, after earlier banning events with more than 500. This follows in the footsteps of Germany, where lawmakers made a similar request on Sunday.

      * * *

      Update (1425ET): A state of emergency impacting certain heavily flooded counties is still in effect from a few weeks ago, but on Sunday, Oregon Gov. Kate Brown has declared a state of emergency over the novel coronavirus in the state. The state of emergency will remain in effect for 60 days, and can be extended if necessary. The Oregon Health Authority has confirmed 14 – 7 of them new – cases of the virus in the state.

      Authorities said they expect to see more cases, but emphasized that everyone can take actions to reduce the spread of the virus, according to Oregon Public Radio.

      After an employee at a hospital in Danbury, Conn. tested positive, marking the first case in the state, health officials said that the first Connecticut resident to be confirmed positive with Covid-19 is from the town of Wilton, a town in Fairfield County not far from the NY State border. The patient, who is being treated at Danbury Hospital, is a Wilton resident reportedly between the ages of 40 and 50. Officials believe the patient came in contact with the coronavirus on a recent trip to California, the Hartford Courant reports.

      Saudi Arabia has closed schools across the kingdom.

      Meanwhile, in Japan, doctors have reported an unusual development. One patient who was hospitalized with the virus has developed meningitis, a swelling of the lining in the brain. It’s reportedly the first case where this has happened.

      * * *

      Update (1330ET): For the second day in a row, Italian health officials on Sunday have reported 1,000+ newly confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus. In addition, deaths have climbed 50% to 366 deaths, up from 233.

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      The Italian fatality rate has now hit 5%.

      In France, the total number of confirmed cases has climbed to 1,126, with 19 deaths. Germany has reported 107 new cases of coronavirus, raising the total to 902, with 40 cases in Berlin.

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      In Israel, PM Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly weighing a ban on all foreigners entering the country. A few hours ago, Israel closed the rest of its border with Egypt after the country reported the first coronavirus-linked death in Africa. The deceased is a German citizen.

      * * *

      Update (1130ET): After declaring a state of emergency on Saturday, Gov. Cuomo confirmed 16 more cases in the state on Sunday, raising the state total from 89 to 105.

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      As officials in Washington State try to figure out exactly how many residents of the Life Care Center of Kirkland have died from the virus, one Twitter user pointed out the number of patients who have died at the facility – not at a hospital – since the outbreak began.

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      In India, officials have confirmed what’s believed to be the first Covid-19-related death. They’re awaiting a final confirmation.

      Spain reports 96 new cases of coronavirus and 7 new deaths, raising total to 613 cases and 17 dead.

      In Virginia, officials have found what they described as the state’s second presumptive case of coronavirus, bringing the total number of cases in the Washington DC area to seven.

      Saudi Arabia has suspended travel to and from Qatif Province, a key eastern province and ordered businesses and government offices there closed after confirming four new cases of the novel coronavirus on Sunday, bringing the total number of infections to 11.

      The Army has suspended travel to and from Italy and South Korea for all soldiers and family members because of the coronavirus outbreak until May 6. The order, which affects 4,500 soldiers and family members, comes after that sailor in Naples was confirmed infected.

      According to the New York Times, the ‘Grand Princess’ is on its way to dock on Monday at the Port of Oakland, the vessel’s operator said, after initially being refused entry at the port in San Francisco on Thursday. Passengers on the ship who require “acute medical treatment and hospitalization” will disembark first and be taken to secure facilities in Cali. Some 21 crew and passengers (mostly crew) have been infected, and more are being tested.

      Most of those under quarantine on the ship, a situation that one passenger described as “hellish”, will linger for at least a day as officials continue the screening process.

      California’s Office of Emergency Services said that a joint state and federal effort will begin Monday to disembark passengers from the ship in the port of Oakland. Sick passengers will be taken to medical facilities in California, and those who don’t require immediate care will be housed in federal facilities “for testing and isolation,” according to CBS News.

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      California residents will be brought to facilities within the state, and non-residents will be taken to locations in other states, including a military base in Marietta, Georgia. OES said 1,000 passengers are California residents. In an interview on “Face the Nation” on Sunday, US Surgeon General Jerry Adams said the White House “is still working” on figuring out where the “disembarked” passengers will be held.

      Reuters reports the Mayor of Daegu, the hardest hit city in South Korea that is under quarantine as officials fight the outbreak, says the outbreak might be slowing. He reportedly expressed cautious hope on Sunday that the numbers of new cases may be dropping, after the rate of increase slowed to its lowest in 10 days.

      The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported on Sunday 272 new coronavirus cases, for a total of 7,313 in the country. Two further deaths took the toll to 50, it added.

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      The increase was smaller than the day before, though health officials have warned that these figures could change as new tests are processed.

      * * *

      The drastic new measures announced yesterday in Rome’s draft decree to contain Europe’s worst novel coronavirus outbreak have now been put into practice: Italians awakened on Sunday to conditions that haven’t been seen in the country since the partisans in Giulino di Mezzegra, a small village in the Italian north that is now under quarantine, executed Mussolini.

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      With the quarantine imposing strict rules governing who can and can’t leave the area, anyone living in Lombardy and 14 other central and northern provinces will need special permission to travel. Milan and Venice, two of the largest cities in the country, which is also Europe’s third-largest economy with a total population of roughly 60 million – are both affected.

      Overall, some 16 million Italians will be impacted by the strict quarantines – roughly 25% of the Italian population.

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      The most salient details of the Italian quarantine are as follows: In the quarantine region, weddings and funerals have been suspended, as well as religious and cultural events. Cinemas, night clubs, gyms, swimming pools, museums and ski resorts have been closed. Restaurants and cafes in the quarantined zones can open between 06:00 and 18:00 but customers must sit at least 1m (3ft) apart. People have been told to stay at home as much as possible, the BBC reports.

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      Those who willingly decide to break the quarantine could face three months in jail.

      Restrictions apply to all of the Lombardy region, which includes many of Italy’s largest cities and most economically important provinces. According to Turkey’s Anadolou News Agency, along with Lombardy, the quarantine includes the cities of Modena, Parma, Piacenza, Reggio Emilia, Rimini, Pesaro e Urbino, Alessandria, Asti, Novara, Verbano Cusio Ossola, Vercelli, Padova, Treviso and Venice.

      The order impacts Lombardy, the region around Milan, as well as vast swathes of Piedmont, Veneto, Emilia Romagna and Marche. Venice is part of the affected zone, while Turin, home to the Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV headquarters, is outside, according to Bloomberg.

      PM Giuseppe Conte said sports matches will be held without crowds, and that schools in all quarantined locations will be on break until April 3.

      In a tweet retweeted by Conte, WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros congratulated the Italian government for imposing “extraordinary measures”, and specifically praised Italian President Sergio Mattarrella for his boldness in getting the draft decree adopted into law.

      Of course, while these measures are undoubtedly bold, they’re coming rather late in the game. Italy has confirmed 233 deaths connected to the outbreak, most of them in Lombardy, but cases and deaths have been confirmed across the country now, including a US Navy serviceman in Naples. 5,061 cases have been confirmed across Italy.

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      In the Vatican, which confirmed its first case the other day, Pope Francis delivered his first live-streamed Sunday prayer to avoid the usual crowds forming. The Pope said he was “close through prayer” with those suffering from the epidemic. The Pope is also just recovering from a relatively serious ‘indisposition’ that officials said was definitely not the coronavirus (the pontiff was reportedly tested).

      Over in the US, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the head of NIAID and the CDC’s point man on the outbreak, delivered some appropriately severe comments in a statement to the press delivered early Sunday.

      The celebrated epidemiologist warned the public that they should avoid public gatherings because the virus’s seemingly rapid spread within communities on the West Coast is “not encouraging.”

      • FAUCI SAYS SCOPE OF CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK IN UNITED STATES ‘NOT ENCOURAGING’ BECAUSE OF SPREAD WITHIN COMMUNITIES
      • NIAID HEAD ANTHONY FAUCI SAYS U.S. NEEDS TO LOOK AT CANCELLING EVENTS WITH LARGE GATHERINGS OF PEOPLE IF COMMUNITY SPREAD OF CORONAVIRUS INCREASES.

      The Washington Post reports, citing a tweet from Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-Texas), that the Grand Princess passengers are expected to be quarantined at the Lackland Air Force Base in San Antonio, where evacuees from the Diamond Princess and Wuhan have been quarantined.
       

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      Meanwhile, hours after announcing the District’s first coronavirus case, the DC Department of Health said Sunday that it was investigating whether members of a Georgetown church were exposed to the deadly virus.

      In Albany, Gov. Cuomo said that NY and NYC wanted to avoid the quarantines imposed in Italy and China, but he would shut down NYC schools if he really felt it necessary.

      • CUOMO: WANTS TO AVOID MASSIVE QUARANTIES USED IN CHINA, ITALY
      • CUOMO” `IF WE NEED TO CLOSE SCHOOLS, WE WILL CLOSE SCHOOLS’
      • CUOMO SAYS NO REASON NOW TO CLOSE DOWN MASS TRANSIT IN CITY
      • NEW YORK GOV ANDREW CUOMO COMMENTS ON FOX NEWS CHANNEL

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      In a tweet sent early Sunday, President Trump defended the US response to the virus, praised VP Mike Pence (but notably not HHS Secretary Azar, and insisted that the “Fake News” media was deliberately trying to make him look bad.

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      We can’t help but wonder: Does this “plan” involve mass Italy- and/or China-style quarantines?

      Elsewhere, in the UK, health officials confirmed another batch of cases, bringing the national total between the four kingdoms to 273. Among them, a student at Oxford University, the first case at the school. It was the largest daily jump in cases for the UK yet.

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      As we reported last night, South America recorded its first coronavirus death, a 64-year-old Argentinian man, meanwhile, in Australia, a man in his 80s died, marking the country’s third death from the virus.

      In Malaysia, which has been one of the more successful countries at combating the outbreak, officials banned all cruise ships from landing (taking a page out of President Trump’s book).

      Of course, even as President Trump said he would prefer to leave the passengers on the Grand Princess offshore indefinitely (he doesn’t need his ‘numbers’ to double, as he said the other day), the US doesn’t have that luxury considering most of them are American citizens.

      The Netherlands reports 77 new cases of coronavirus and 2 new deaths, raising total to 265 cases and 3 dead. German Health Minister Jens Spahn advised all events with more than 1,000 participants to be cancelled.

      Iran on Sunday reported 49 deaths and more than 700 new cases of the virus, according to health authorities. As the worst outbreak outside China intensifies, the regime has urged citizens to stay home and avoid travel between cities, while many of Iran’s neighbors have closed their borders to Iranian citizens.

      According to WaPo, the new cases bring the official death toll in Iran to 194, with a total number of confirmed cases climbing to 6,566 infections.

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      The new cases bring the official death toll in Iran to 194, with a total of 6,566 infections, according to the Health Ministry.

      The outbreak is one of the largest outside China, where it is believed the virus originated.

      In New York, as the number of confirmed cases passes 100, an Uber driver living in the Queens neighborhood of Far Rockaway has reportedly been hospitalized with the virus. As one reporter noted.

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      Tyler Durden

      Sun, 03/08/2020 – 23:55

    • America 2060 – An Insolvent Nursing Home?
      America 2060 – An Insolvent Nursing Home?

      Authored by D. Dowd Muska via InsideSources.com,

      Has America hit peak despair?

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      The latest estimate from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention puts life expectancy in 2018 at “78.7 years, an increase of 0.1 year from 2017.” It’s a welcome reversal for a three-years-in-a-row trend of declining longevity. The phenomenon that has come to be called “deaths of despair” – i.e., white, middle-age folks killing themselves with booze and drugs and suicide — may have maxed out.

      And if the U.S. Census Bureau’s estimators can be trusted, the downward blip in an otherwise relentless march toward getting older will soon be forgotten.

      At 15 pages, “Living Longer: Historical and Projected Life Expectancy in the United States, 1960 to 2060” is light reading. But the fiscal, economic and social consequences of its projections are profound.

      By the bureau’s math, when the first Catholic president was elected, “life expectancy for the total population” was 69.7 years. In 2015, the average was 79.4 years. And in 2060, the estimate is “an all-time high of 85.6 years.”

      Bad news for our “patriarchy,” gents: While the “gender gap in life expectancy” narrows, females will continue to enjoy a nontrivial edge. Back in 1960, men lived 6.5 years less. A century later, the deficit slips to 3.4 years.

      One of the reasons the United States is bound to grow grayer is the rising share of Latinos living here. Due to immigration and a higher birthrate, the “Hispanic health paradox” will boost national longevity.

      Citing the work of researchers Alberto Palloni and Elizabeth Arias, “Living Longer” notes that “racial or ethnic misclassification on vital registration data” is a possible explanation for why people of Central and South American ancestry have, given their socioeconomic status, unexpectedly fewer medical problems.

      Self-selection (“the propensity for healthier Hispanics to migrate to the United States”) is another. Finally, “social and cultural ties that influence health behaviors” might play a role.

      Whatever the cause or causes, the average life expectancy for a Latino born in 2017 is estimated to surpass the comparable figure for whites by just a bit, and be five and a half years longer than the projection for blacks and Native Americans.

      Gender, racial and ethnic minutiae aside, the Land of the Free is getting older.

      A 2018 calculation by the bureau found that the elderly will “outnumber kids for the first time in U.S. history” by 2034. And that means increased healthcare needs — big time.

      “Living Longer” offers the gloomy reminder that old age is “associated with an increased risk of disability, disease and multimorbidity — having two or more chronic health conditions such as heart disease and diabetes.”

      As The Wall Street Journal recently noted, Baby Boomers “start reaching their 80s in 2026.” And the Original Snowflake Generation has not given a good account of itself vis-à-vis nutrition and physical activity.

      A 2013 analysis published by the American Medical Association’s JAMA Internal Medicine probed the health of Boomers, “relative to the previous generation.” Progress, overall, was nonexistent. Obesity? Hypertension? High cholesterol? Diabetes? Regular exercise? Worse, worse, worse, worse, worse.

      Living longer, sicker, is bankrupting the national government. For the vast majority of beneficiaries, federal entitlements give much more than they take.

      The Urban Institute’s number-crunching of “the expected present value at age 65 of (Social Security and Medicare) benefits received in retirement and taxes paid over a career for households with different earnings and marriage histories” supplies bracing evidence of why the United States is $23.4 trillion in debt. For example, a “single woman with low earnings ($23,400 in 2018 dollars)” will enjoy a lifetime entitlement windfall of $310,000.

      Much of the funding for Social Security and Medicare is delivered via the payroll tax, a hideously regressive levy that redistributes wealth from the working young to the retired old. As Urban’s Howard Gleckman notes, “income tax payments don’t begin to exceed payroll taxes until household incomes reach six figures, and only really dominate for those making $200,000 or more.”

      What are “leaders” planning to do to address looming insolvency, and the appalling unfairness of generational predation?

      The current occupant of the White House warns that the “socialist Democrats” are “trying to destroy your Social Security,” but “that won’t happen with me,” because “my administration is protecting your Social Security, your Medicare.” His likeliest opponent supports “Medicare for All” — a cockamamie proposal to expand an entitlement with a hospital-insurance “trust fund” that, its trustees say, faces the start of depletion in six years.

      Americans will be living longer in 2060. Terrific. But a dubious blessing, if Washington is broke.


      Tyler Durden

      Sun, 03/08/2020 – 23:15

    • Coronavirus – The Catalyst For System Failure?
      Coronavirus – The Catalyst For System Failure?

      Submitted by Guy Haselmann, Principal at FETI Group

      Overview

      Today’s global economic system is more intertwined than at any point in history. For the past 30 years in particular, globalization and the Theory of Comparative Advantage have been alive and well. Technological advancements and transportation improvements have truly ‘shrunk the world’, allowing more countries to participate and benefit from international trade.

      The globalized world economy has become a vast network of complex supply chains, interconnectedness and co-dependence. The benefits have been wide-spread and done more to lift the human condition, and more people out of poverty, than any development in history. However, this increase in economic complexity has magnified global vulnerabilities, opening up the risk of rapid and large-scale failure and contagion: a period of anti-globalization. COVID-19 is the catalyst that is triggering a supply-side crisis; one that is further exacerbated by a simultaneous demand-side shock.

      Consensus View

      The consensus view seems to be that the COVID-19 will die out with warmer weather; after all this is what typically happens with the common flu. In terms of markets, most believe that governments and central banks will come to the rescue with proactive stimulus which will be exceptionally good for markets, because the economy is viewed to be on solid footing already.  The stimulus will come to be viewed as an over-reaction that merely serves to provide more economic fuel, particularly once the Coronavirus sputters away. This scenario is logical and possible, but not a view that I share.

      US Coronavirus Response

      The US has a relatively low number of confirmed cases, but it is in direct proportion to the low number people tested. There is a shortage of testing kits and slow distribution to provide more. This is likely intentional. Trump is on Twitter bragging about the low number of positive cases in the United States as being a result of his administration’s actions. There are reports that only a few thousand tests have even been conducted in the US. Even after the US ships millions of test kits the US can only test a few thousand per day.

      Regardless, most should be in agreement that in the near term the virus will become more widespread with a deepening impact on normal societal behaviors. Music festivals, business conferences, schools and sporting events have already been impacted, closed or cancelled. In several cases companies have asked not essential staff to work from home. These actions should certainly help limit the spread.

      Governments have a vested interest to limit panic, but should not do so by misinformation or limiting confirmed infections by inadequate testing. The Fed has tried to be proactive, but an interest rate drop of 50 basis points is basically ineffective, reactionary, and whiffs of panic.

      In thinking about where markets are headed, for this note I am more focused on the supply and demand shocks currently in motion particularly against the backdrop of the state of our economy. An understanding of the path of financial markets in recent years will also be helpful to thinking about where they may go next.

      A Globalized World

      In a globalized world economy with highly complex lines of production, there are many critical links that tie production to delivery, and ultimately to world trade. Most people take simple things for granted: grocery stores and pharmacy shelves being stocked; money accepted in exchange for goods and services, the train arriving on time, and their mobile phone and internet working.

      People notice the immediacy of things, but not the conditionality from which it emerges. People rarely think about, or see, the constraints to critical infrastructure or the factors that provide for social stability.

      A global pandemic is good reason to shift one’s thinking to consciously considering them. No one wants to test the legitimacy of the old adage that we are only nine meals from anarchy. The worst case scenario of a pandemic causing a simultaneous supply and demand shock could be so highly disruptive that it is something that every market participant and fiduciary must give thought to.

      Certainly, there are groups of individuals who need to go to work to provide services that support critical infrastructures. What happens if not enough of them go to work? What happens if manufacturing plants or parts factories close? What are the demand impacts when people are told not to go anywhere where a large number of people gather? What happens, for  instance, if truckers do not receive their normal supplies for delivery, or if they refuse to deliver to towns with a high percentage of confirmed COVID-19 cases? All kinds of spillover effects could happen within a few days: food shortages, hospital supply shortages, garbage piling up, US mail stopping, gas shortages, power grids and sewer system troubles, ATM’s running out of cash etc.

      I believe Liebigs’s Law of the Minimum can be used to understand a globalized world with its highly-precise and efficient supply chains. Today’s extreme efficiencies mean that it would take only one failure in the chain to stop or impact production and delivery. On average businesses have around 15-20 days of inventory. Production is not limited to the total  level of resources, but rather by the scarcest resource. You can’t build a car without the tires or the rubber used to make them. COVID-19 has already dramatically impacted supply-chains as factories in China and elsewhere have shut.

      A Ford F-150, for example, has well over 10,000 parts. Their parts suppliers have, say, 1000 suppliers of their own, who in turn have, say, 100 suppliers. This is a crude calculation, but that is a permutation of 1 billion pathways. Dun & Bradstreet reports that 5 million companies have a tier  one or tier-two supplier in the Wuhan region. A shut parts factory in China could easily lead to the closing of a manufacturing plant in another country.

      A more precise example comes from a friend of mine who was a U.S. Air Force officer responsible for extracting intelligence from aerial photography. He told me the story of his training from WWII photos from near the end of the War showing many German aircraft sitting idle – and no one could figure out why. After the US invaded Germany, they found out that the planes had everything they needed to be operational except the ball bearings; a direct result of the ball bearing factory in Schweinfurt being bombed.

      As fears grow and governments impose restrictions against human gatherings, demand shocks will follow. The result will have a cascading effect across businesses, economies, markets and society. Such disruptions do not proportionately or linearly increase with time, but rather cause spillover effects that accelerate disruptions. A classic contagion.

      2008 Financial Crisis vs. COVID-19

      The 2008 financial crisis and policy responses should not be compared too precisely to the potential crisis developing from a COVID-19 pandemic. The crises are quite different.

      In 2008, interbank lending dried up, partially due to uncertainties around the size of bank’s offbalance sheet SPVs (Special Purpose Vehicles) and the amount of structured product (e.g. CDOs) they held. The Fed and Treasury acted to unclog the plumbing by cutting rates to 0% and by putting in a series of targeted lending and purchasing facilities. These measures prevented severe contagion after Lehman failed, and helped to bail out several firms including AIG and their huge counter-party exposures. While the official response to the 2008 crisis prevented a full market meltdown and potentially a new great depression, it sowed the seeds for making today’s crisis much worse!

      A good deal of the risks from 2008 were displaced to sovereigns via enormous deficits and bank guarantees. Basically, the response of 2008’s ‘too much debt’ has been even more debt, as evidenced by massive increases in global indebtedness that is several multiples greater today than 2008 levels.

      Simply stated, the actions taken in 2008 cannot fix today’s socio-economic and behavioral disruptions currently stemming from COVID-19. The financial system is in a much more precarious position due indebtedness being far higher, central banks having less fire power and credibility, and asset valuations bubbling near historical extremes. Central bank tools are worn. Interest rates are not only already near rock bottom in most places, but further action may be counterproductive and therefore there may be a loss of faith in more ‘bazooka, whatever-it-takes’ band aids (think ECB).

      Equally importantly, China, the epicenter of the COVID-19, is an important cog in global supply chains today. It’s share of global GDP has risen from around 5% in 2008 to 16% today.

      True Coordinated Policy Responses Unlikely

      There have been several interest rate cuts by central banks with more cuts likely. However, at the bigger governmental level, conflicting perceptions of the crisis and risk-reward frameworks means a lower likelihood of a true global coordinated response. Why? Because varying degrees of desperation could press local demands forward and give rise to “nationalism” and desire to ‘protect our own’. Impulses like these would exacerbate broken supply chains and are antiglobalization at their core!

      MMT Revised?

      The Fed and other major central banks might attempt to act as the ‘lender of first resort’ and try to recapitalize the world to save it from the mess their own prior actions created (i.e, “everything bubble”). In theory, the Fed has an unlimited balance sheet from which it could guarantee every liability. However, this suggests that the Fed’s backstop is its ability to print infinite amount of money, but at some level it must know that to try to do so would destroy confidence in the value of the fiat USD. Devaluing one’s currency and ‘beggar-thy-neighbor’ policies don’t typically work when an indebted world is all in the same boat. If they did work, it would be at the expense of hyper-inflation.

      The Catalyst For a Catastrophic System Failure?

      COVID-19 could possibly be the catalyst for a double-whammy supply and demand shock that breaks extreme market valuations and breaks the smooth functioning of the financial system.

      Slow response time and misleading early information by governments and their institutions (particularly in China and Iran) have, and will, significantly damage the effectiveness of the policy actors who are attempting to manage the crisis. Distrust of official information can be highly damaging. COVID-19 has the potential to lead to catastrophic system failure. Markets, international trade, economic output, and social stability are all at risk.

      Global Indebtedness Impact on Markets

      Despite central banks efforts to centrally control prices and market liquidity, banks and lending still play a critical part. System confidence in money and credit is the basis of all economic activity. A slowing economic landscape that is already over-borrowed can easily start to deleverage, quickly triggering a negative feed-back loop. As such expectations take hold, loans retire or are defaulted on, money and credit supply drops further and quicker than goods and services are produced.  The COVID-19 could easily be the shock that sets a debt deflation economic collapse in motion.

      Raising debt in order to rollover existing debt will no longer becomes an option, so defaults will skyrocket and businesses will close. The result will be asset prices falling and unemployment rising quickly. Money velocity will fall in a reinforcing downward spiral.

      The BIS has written extensively about how over-indebtedness damages economic growth. The Fed’s decade of negative real rates, ever-ballooning balance sheet and extraordinary accommodation has been partially to prevent an Irving Fisher style debt deflation cycle. Yet, in trying so drastically to prevent it, the Fed may have provided the dry kindling that made it inevitable. No doubt, the second order effects of Fed’s excessive accommodative policies have been soaring indebtedness, wild market speculation and financial asset bubbles.

      According to the IIF, global debt to GDP reached an all-time high of 322% in Q3 2019. Government intervention would increase debt but without addressing corporate insolvency. And, central bank actions have already been riddled with ever declining marginal results, and as mentioned, at some point their actions simply become counter-productive.

      High Yield Bonds, aka Junk Bonds

      55% of the entire corporate bond market is rated BBB. Many of these companies will be downgraded by at least one notch pushing many of them into junk bond status. (Junk bonds are now nicely referred to as ‘high-yield’, despite really being ‘medium yield’.) The aggregated number of BBB bonds is around $3 trillion or 4x the entire size of the junk bond market.

      A downgrade into junk status means that these bonds automatically get kicked out of all investment grade indexes. In addition, some investors are constrained by regulation from investing in non-investment grade bonds; the combination means forced selling will occur. There is not enough liquidity or balance sheet room to find buyers at economic prices.

      Historically junk spreads trade on average 4%-6% above treasury yields, but during a crisis with rising defaults and inadequate liquidity, these spreads will soar to much high spread levels. The fact that we have just finished a decade of extreme yield seeking will increase the severity.

      Markets

      Financial markets are following an extraordinary decade of exceptionally high returns. I’ve written extensively about how global central banks have been borrowing from future returns by making today’s return’s better. The Fed has encouraged corporations to borrow cheaply to buy back their own shares. Corporate executives are immune to high valuations and incentivized to buy back shares, because decreasing the number of shares increases earnings per share (EPS), which in turn inflates performance related pay. However, it should be noted that this financial engineering also weakens the corporate balance sheets by increasing debt levels.

      The Fed has basically fueled speculation and moral hazard by keeping rates ‘too low’ and showing that it will act during any signs of market trouble. The ‘Fed Put’ is real and alive. Thus, market have had a fear of missing out (FOMO). The result is valuations that have gotten to more and more extreme levels – near all-time high valuations. All bubbles pop, the key is knowing the timing.

      In recent years, while I have stated that perpetual bubble blowing is unsustainable, I thought the only thing that might derail the equity bull market was when real rates went positive and the Fed balance sheet began to shrink; OR, a recession. I will now add a pandemic to the list. Thus, the timing is now.

      Financial assets represent the expected claim on future economic growth with valuations determined by the discounted value of those future cash flows. A drop in interest rates (the discount rate) makes the future cash flow worth more in today’s terms. Yet, a drop in interest rates does not change the cash flow itself. Economic growth is necessary for earnings  and positive cash flows. Growth is going to be severely impacted from the COVID-19 shock. I do not believe that it will merely cause ‘delayed demand’ as some suggest. In others words, that a drop in Q2 will be offset by equal increases in Q3.

      Equities: I expect COVID-19 to cause a drop in US equity markets of at least 40%. Valuations are way too high. The “E” will fall faster than the “P”, and dip buyers will be incentivized to wait and not try to ‘catch a falling knife” with so much uncertainty around COVID-19 and the upcoming US election.

      Bonds: In 2014, I predicted that the long bond would trade with a 1% handle. I argued that Treasuries demand would surpass high levels of supply due to three main factors: 1) the Fed was hoarding so many; 2) Treasuries were the high-yielder relative to other developed world sovereigns so foreign demand would remain high; and 3) the PBGC rule changes for private pensions and its strong incentives for LDI investing would increase long end demand.

      Recently, I have been asked a lot about my opinion of Treasuries. I’ve stated that Treasuries will continue to fall to new record low yields initially – in the short term – but I have turned negative in the medium term.

      [Let me start by saying that I believe the Fed will be forced to cut rates toward 0% but will refrain from ever moving official nominal yields into negative territory, due to our highly developed and important money market sector. And, I don’t believe the Fed should cut or go to 0% because I believe rates below a certain level, say around 2%, are counter-productive. Nonetheless, they will cut from fear of looking as if it is not doing enough. I also believe the flight to Treasuries will continue in the near term dropping long rates at least another 25 bps.]

      However, I believe the disruption in global supply chains and nationalistic impulses will eventually cause a type of stagflation. Forget the Philips Curve which the Fed still references, it was debunked in the 1970’s. Globalization has reached its peak and a period of anti-globalization will manifest, reversing some of the benefits such as efficient low cost production. A supply chain disruption that causes a shift to the second lowest cost producer can have a dramatic impact on final prices. These pressures along with growing deficits will place greater pressure on Treasuries particularly as nominal Treasury yields approach the zero lower bound.

      Conclusion

      Some experts believe the Coronavirus will manifest as the worst to strike since the 1918 Spanish flu. The Coronavirus is highly disturbing due to its high infectiousness and level of severity. As it worsens, global media outlets will show more depressing stories about closings of schools, factories, and events. They will show stories about production failures, panicked markets, government feebleness, food insecurity, and factors that spread and amplify fear and uncertainty.

      Financial markets are unlikely able to hold such high valuations. Why? With a current all-time low unemployment rate of 3.5%, unemployment only has one way to go – up. Debt to income levels are already unsustainably high and income levels will drop as production is ratcheted lower. Paying down debt will become a challenge and credit will become scarcer. Inflation will rise even in the face of system collapse. The frailties of system dependencies will be exposed. Behaviors will change as socio-economic fragmentation occurs. Consumer confidence will materially drop leading to further economic contraction.

      A financial system and supply chain cross-contagion could easily enter a re-enforcing negative feedback loop that has to recalibrate to a new stable state after collapse. Once production lines and trade are impacted for a period of time, they are not easily turned back on. It is not like turning on a light switch.

      Final Thought

      My intent with this note is not invoke fear, but rather to assess the difference between best-case (consensus) and worst-case scenarios. Fringe warnings like the ones outlined above are never popular. People often defer to authority opinion when consensus views are challenged. Unfortunately, governments are incentivized to maintain order with rosy announcements while experts today are still trying to understand what they are even dealing with.

      Humans typically seek group affirmation. Market participants believe being wrong in a consensus is safer than being right with the risk of facing social shaming. After the 2008 crisis, most funds that lost near the same as the S&P 500 of 39%, often said, “no one saw this coming”. This is simply not true, but did allow most to keep from losing their jobs.

      I have written this because I believe markets have learned little about risk management since the financial crisis. On the contrary, the “Fed put” has made many complacent and unworried about downside risk. Too many have worried so much about seeking return and hunting for yield that they have forgotten that what matters is return per unit of risk. The upside potential versus downside risk of today’s market with a potential pandemic looming is highly skewed to the downside. Investors should immediately shift from FOMO to actions that help preserve capital until uncertainties materially dissipate.


      Tyler Durden

      Sun, 03/08/2020 – 22:51

    • Market Massacre: Oil Crashes 30%, VIX Explodes As S&P Craters Limit Down
      Market Massacre: Oil Crashes 30%, VIX Explodes As S&P Craters Limit Down

      Update (2020ET): And there it is: for the first time since the financial crisis, the emini S&P future has hit the limit down band of -5%, something it failed to do even during the May 2010 flash crash.

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      This means that no more trade are allowed below the limit down level until the market opens at 9:30 am ET (assuming it opens of course). Trades higher are still permitted, naturally, however that will probably not be a great comfort to all those who are rushing  to liquidate with reckless abandon. But fear not: with the S&P now down more than 17% from its all-time highs just two weeks earlier, and just shy of a bear market, those who want to sell will have ample opportunity to do so in the days ahead.

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      * * * 

      Following what may have been the most drama-filled weekend since “Lehman Sunday”, in which we saw not only another major spike in covid cases around Europe and the US, but also the total collapse of OPEC after Saudi Arabia unilaterally decided to flood the market with deeply discounted oil in a desperate attempt to crush the competition (yet which may backfire and soon lead to riots in Riyadh), markets are reacting appropriately and just like during Lehman Sunday, everything is crashing:

      • S&P emini futures are down more than 4% in early trading, plunging as low as 2,845 and fast approaching their limit down price of 2,819 as investors around the world puke risk in an unprecedented fashion.

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      • Dow futures are down more than 1,000 points unwinding all of Friday’s remarkable late-day rally and then some…

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      • VIX futures are up 16%, so one can only imagine where spot will be soon.

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      • With everyone rushing into safety, rates are soaring and the Ultra bond future is already up a gargantuan 7 to 232-16 in a squeeze that will surely lead to the failure of more than one macro fund still short the long-end, while the 10Y yield is on pace to hit a record all time low of 0.50%, one which screams recession.

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      • Naturally, the oil complex is imploding, with WTI down 27% to $30…

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      • … while Brent has dropped as much as 31%, to just $33 in early Sunday trading in what Bloomberg dubbed “one of the most dramatic bouts of selling ever”…

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      … and indeed, today’s move is the biggest one-day drop in Brent on record.

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      … in line with Goldman’s shocking price target cut, which now expected Brent dropping into the $20s.

      FX, as discussed earlier, is in freefall, with carry trades getting unwound, while commodity pairs are getting anihilated:

      • NORWEGIAN KRONE FALLS TO LOWEST SINCE AT LEAST 1985 VS DOLLAR
      • FALLS EXTEND IN CANADIAN DOLLAR, NORWEGIAN KRONE, MEXICAN PESO

      Finally, gold, also known to certain WSJ “experts” as a pet rock, it just spiked above $1,700 for the first time since 2012.

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      What happens now? Well, earlier today Morgan Stanley said that to stabilize markets, the Fed would need to announce not only a rate cut but also resume official QE…

      We believe equity markets will struggle until policy-makers get back ahead of the curve with more interest rate cuts and an extension of the current balance sheet expansion and/or an official quantitative easing program – something we think is likely coming

      … and with spot VIX likely set to trip 60 or more, the Fed will need to do something or risk another Great Depression, although how sending nominal bond yields into negative territory across the board will help markets remains to be seen. Maybe the Fed’s time has finally run out?

      Or maybe Trump – who provoked the market gods one too many times with his relentless stock market boasts as stocks hit artificial high after artificial high – actually has something up his sleeve, because moments after futures opened, he tweeted a rather cryptic “nothing can stop what’s coming.”

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

      We’ll see about that: One thing is certain: markets and traders will be closely watching and waiting everything that is coming, after more than a decade of Fed-inspired complacency, as price discovery finally returns with a bang.


      Tyler Durden

      Sun, 03/08/2020 – 22:40

    • New York Power Plant Mines $50,000 Of Bitcoin A Day
      New York Power Plant Mines $50,000 Of Bitcoin A Day

      Authored by Adrian Zmudzinski via CoinTelegraph.com,

      A New York power plant turns to Bitcoin mining in a successful bid to increase profitability.

      Bloomberg reported on Mar. 5 that a power plant in New York’s Finger Lakes region now mines about $50,000 of Bitcoin (BTC) each day using the electricity it produces.

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      image courtesy of cointelegraph

      Atlas Holding, the private equity company that owns the facility, installed 7,000 crypto mining machines at the Greenidge Generation’s 65,000-square-foot power plant in Dresden, New York.

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      The firm pointed out that since it produces the power consumed by the machines on its own, the mining operation is extremely low cost.

      An extremely profitable operation

      Cryptocurrency mining is extremely energy-intensive. Mining facilities tend to concentrate where electricity prices are the lowest. In this case, the power cost is equivalent to production costs.

      Atlas Holding’s mining operation consumes about 15 megawatts of the 115 megawatts of the power plant’s total capacity. In the past, the Dresden power plant used to operate only when there was higher-than-usual energy demand during summer and winter, but now it operates the whole year. 

      Bitcoin block reward halving is “favorable”

      The cryptocurrency community is afraid that Bitcoin mining will become unprofitable for most miners after the block reward will be cut in half in about little over two months. Dave Perrill, the CEO of colocation service for crypto miners, recently told Cointelegraph that the profitability of all but the most efficient mining operations will be greatly challenged after the halving takes place.

      Still, the profitability of Atlas Holding’s mining operation is high enough to be safe after the block reward cut. Greenidge’s chief financial officer Tim Rainey said that he expects the operation will stay profitable after Bitcoin’s halving:

      “We are in a favorable market position regardless of how the halving materializes. […] Due to our unique position as a co-generation facility, we are able to make money in down markets so that we’re available to catch the upside of volatile price swings.”

       


      Tyler Durden

      Sun, 03/08/2020 – 22:15

    • "The Ground Is Rumbling" – 'Age Of Chaos' Earthquake Imminent
      “The Ground Is Rumbling” – ‘Age Of Chaos’ Earthquake Imminent

      Authored by Robert Gore via StraightLineLogic.com,

      You’ll be on your own during the Age of Chaos.

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      Once upon a time there was a village right next to a volcano. The villagers spent much of their time watching the volcano, which perpetually sputtered, smoked, and fumed. When they first awakened, they’d look up to it. At night they’d watch its lava glow against the dark sky. A special class of villagers instructed them on how to interpret the volcano and how they must live their lives to propitiate it.

      Much of what the village produced was gathered by the special class, an offering tax that was supposedly left in a secret spot at the foot of the volcano (somehow the special class always lived better than everyone else). Unusually intense rumblings of the volcano terrified the villagers. The special class would tell them what village security demanded – usually higher offering taxes and more power for the special class – to prevent an eruption.

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      One day there was an earthquake. A fissure opened and swallowed the entire village and its special class. The volcano never erupted.

      Turn on the news and chances are the story concerns the special class. History books are mostly chronicles of the special class—their wars, machinations, depredations, follies, all-too-rare wisdom, monuments to themselves, and the invasions and revolutions that occasionally upend them. It goes far beyond propaganda or brainwashing, it is simply an ingrained fixation, accepted by virtually everyone, that attention must always be on the special class and its volcano—government.

      We look up to the special class and their governments and ignore that which will render them irrelevant details—the tectonic shifts below. They perpetuate the illusion of control and many of the subjugated want to believe, but the illusion has always given way to failure and irrelevancy and always will.

      A society can be likened to an organism. Its members are individual cells. Organisms survive not because one group of cells in the brain directs the rest. Rather, there is constant interaction and communications among cells, much of which bypasses the brain. This optimizes the odds of the organism’s survival. You put your hand on a hot stove, information is communicated from your skin and its nerves to the peripheral nervous system, not the brain, and the message almost instantly comes back: take your hand off the stove. If cells could only respond to directives from the relatively slow brain, the organism would die within minutes. Similarly, the illusion that huge masses of people can be controlled by a small group from the top only guarantees the eventual end of that small group’s control (the historical failure rate of governments is 100 percent) and perhaps the entire society (yes, entire societies do fail).

      There is no place where the illusion is stronger than China. Its citizens are encouraged, exhorted, prodded, monitored, coerced, incarcerated, and occasionally executed by the government. Apparently most of them approve of this state of affairs. However, states are neither omniscient nor omnipotent just because the rulers say and the ruled believe they are. Divorced from reality, this misconception can only redound to the detriment of both rulers and ruled.

      Perhaps to prove that God has a sense of humor, albeit occasionally a black one, a virulent and deadly virus has effloresced in the heart of this supposedly controlled land and other than support the scientific response, the Chinese government hasn’t been able to do a damn thing about it. It’s origins are unclear, but the virus has escaped China and only time will tell how far it spreads and how many people it sickens or kills. You can read both apocalyptic and nothing-to-fear scenarios on the Internet and SLL has posted both.

      The CoVid-19 coronavirus ushers in the new decade and beyond: large, ostensibly wealthy and powerful governments, defeated by aggregations of comparatively minuscule units that collectively work tectonic shifts. Another virus has broken out in China that’s received nowhere near the coverage of the coronavirus. A viral epidemic of souring debt threatens to overwhelm the Chinese financial system and spread beyond China’s borders.

      Tacitly recognizing that it can’t stop this epidemic, only administer triage and palliative measures, the Chinese government no longer backstops all significant debt via financial and accounting hocus-pocus. One yuan is a slip of paper or a computer entry, trillions of them due and payable have overwhelmed the system. Companies and individuals are defaulting and going bankrupt; creditors are taking losses. It’s not supposed to happen in this harmonious and just showcase of socialism with capitalist characteristics (Or is it capitalism with socialist characteristics?) but there you have it.

      The CoVid-19 and debt viruses reinforce each other in unhealthy ways, as China shuts down production to quarantine its citizens. The all-knowing, all-powerful government is left with a damned if it does, damned if it doesn’t choice: prematurely restart its economy and fuel the epidemic or quarantine everyone and watch the economy and financial markets tank. Bureaucrats and politicians propose, entropy disposes. The more you try to control, the less you end up controlling. There’s a certain justice to it.

      In modern governance, there is no more minuscule unit than the individual, so minuscule that it’s completely ignored. Propaganda pays homage to democracy—aggregated individuals—but democracy is mob rule, the wolves deciding which sheep are today’s lunch. The trick has always been to give the sheep the illusion of choice while they’re fleeced and herded to the slaughterhouse.

      Even that illusion is breaking down as individuals keep making unapproved choices, although they are still mostly within the noxious confines of mainstream politics. Trump wasn’t deposed. Brexit is happening. The Yellow Vests continue their protests. Matteo Salvini is the most popular man in Italy. Angela Merkel’s reign is fading in Germany. Democratic officialdom is apoplectic at the possibility that Bernie Sanders might win the nomination, coalescing around a corrupt child groper who appears to be suffering from dementia.

      Sanders is an avowed proponent of socialist control just as the Age of Control gives way to the Age of Chaos. His supporters, mostly detached from the humdrum details of their own survival, would be in for a rude awakening should he be elected—they can actually “control” very little. 
They may well be confronted with an uncontrollable guerrilla insurrection from those slated to provide for their survival.

      No institution is more wedded to control than the military, but guerrilla insurrection against imperial empires and would-be conquerors is in a long bull market that started just after World War II and shows no signs of topping. Indeed, it appears to be gathering steam. The US military hasn’t won a meaningful war since World War II. It’s a sign of the corruption and evil of our time that perpetual chaos and devastation have become the ends of war, for the nefarious power and profit it confers on those who wage it. They labor under the oxymoronic delusion of controlled chaos.

      “Uncontrolled” chaos induces panic, nowhere more so than among the controllers. That panic is palpable, and has been since SLL posted “Desperation” a month before Trump was inaugurated. They cling to the belief, shared by some in the alternative media, that if they can just control what’s called the narrative, they’ll be able to control events at home and abroad.

      The controllers have co-opted the mainstream media, academia, think tanks, Wall Street and big business, Hollywood, and professional sports. Respect for all these institutions has tanked. Millions of people have simply tuned the controllers and their acolytes out. Viewership of the emblematic Academy Awards hit a recent low in the US this year, 23.6 million, which means that over 300 million didn’t watch Hollywood’s self-congratulatory bromides and hectoring lectures. Viewership of any one network’s nightly news rarely reaches 10 million, and daily readership of the big mainstream press organs, both print and internet, is rarely above 5 million. How do you control a narrative if nobody’s paying attention to it?

      The narrative is one thing, reality another. Russiagate was a narrative that failed, and so too was Ukrainegate (the number of American people that took either “scandal” seriously never got much above 1 percent). The Chinese government controls narratives, but Chinese people are getting sick and Chinese companies are going broke. “Don’t fight the Fed, the Fed has your back” was the narrative right up until the stock market plunged just after making all-time highs. Seems that short of closing markets, nobody can control millions of shareholders screaming “Get me out!”

      The special class has never been able to wholly suppress individual conscience. In every age there are those who insist on telling the truth, regardless of the risks. They’re often signing their own death warrants, but they tell the truth. The honor roll for our age includes Katherine Gün (I recommend Official Secrets, now available on download), Chelsea Manning, Edward Snowden, Julian Assange, and Craig Murray, who has reported on Assange’s kangaroo extradition proceeding and told the truth for those who care to learn it (see craigmurray.org.uk. As the special class sinks further and further into its own morass of lies, truth tellers and the truth itself will loom ever larger as a threat.

      The ground is rumbling but it is a mere harbinger of the full-blown Age of Chaos earthquake. The special class clings to narrative management and rule by fraud and force, dreaming its dreams of ruling the entire globe. Murder is the ultimate control—corpses offer no resistance—and they’re quite willing to destroy the world to rule it. Humanity’s last, best hope is that the earthquake hits full force and the Age of Chaos arrives before the special class can fully implement its homicidal designs.

      • You can keep your eyes fixed on the special class and their volcano. You can hope that quarantines, travel bans, closing public venues, face masks and disinfectants will protect you from the Covid-19 coronavirus. You can pray that central bank fiat debt, bailouts, and government economic management will save financial markets and the economy. You can believe that all this talk of rising discontent, secession, and insurrection is just talk and nothing will come of it. You can close your eyes, plug your ears, and try to inoculate yourself against truth and reality, all the while screaming for somebody to do something.

      • Or you can prepare for the Age of Chaos. Your fate means less than nothing to the special class and its interests are antithetical to yours. It would rather kill than save you—you and yours are on your own. Accept that reality and you have a chance. It’s not quite as daunting as it might seem—there are many people out there of similar mind. If the special class doesn’t kill us all, the Age of Chaos may ultimately offer an opportunity —for those who want to do so and understand what’s required—to live in freedom, peace, and prosperity.


      Tyler Durden

      Sun, 03/08/2020 – 21:45

    • A Very Deflationary Outcome Has Begun: Blame The Fed
      A Very Deflationary Outcome Has Begun: Blame The Fed

      Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

      The Fed blew three economic bubbles in succession. A deflationary bust has started.

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      Flashback January 6, 2020

      Ben Bernanke Just Won’t Stop Making a Fool Out of Himself

      Former Chairman Bernanke says Fed Has Many Tools to Deter Recession.

      Dear Mr. Bernanke

      Please do yourself a favor and stop making a fool out of yourself.

      For starters, let me point out it was indeed impossible to unwind the Fed’s balance sheet. How far did you get? And what is the Fed doing now?

      Secondly, you would not know inflation if if jumped up and spit you in the eye. You and your group-think buddies never consider asset bubbles as inflation.

      Economic Challenge to Keynesians

      Of all the widely believed but patently false economic beliefs is the absurd notion that falling consumer prices are bad for the economy and something must be done about them.

      My Challenge to Keynesians “Prove Rising Prices Provide an Overall Economic Benefit” has gone unanswered.

      BIS Deflation Study

      The BIS did a historical study and found routine deflation was not any problem at all.

      “Deflation may actually boost output. Lower prices increase real incomes and wealth. And they may also make export goods more competitive,” stated the BIS study.

      Deflationary Outcome

      The existing bubbles ensure another deflationary outcome.

      So prepare for another round of debt deflation, possibly accompanied by a lower CPI especially if one accurately includes home prices instead of rents in the CPI calculation.

      Central banks’ seriously misguided attempts to defeat routine consumer price deflation is what fuels the destructive asset bubbles that eventually collapse

      For a discussion of the BIS study, please see Historical Perspective on CPI Deflations: How Damaging are They?

      Supply Shock and a Demand Shock Coming Up

      A Supply Shock and a Demand Shock are Coming Up.

      Worth Repeating

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      Deflation is not really about prices. It’s about the value of debt on the books of banks that cannot be paid back by zombie corporations and individuals.

      That is what the Fed fears. It takes lower and lower yields to prevent a debt crash. But it is entirely counterproductive and it does not help the consumer, only the asset holders. Fed (global central bank) policy is to blame.

      These are the important point all the inflationistas miss.

      Fed Can Blame Itself

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      I am not blaming the Fed for the coronavirus and these shocks.

      However, I am blaming the Fed for its erroneous inflationary tactics that blew three of the biggest economic bubble in succession: 2000, 2007, 2020.

      Bubbles are inherently deflationary.

      It’s asset asset bubble deflation that is damaging, not routine price deflation.

      When asset bubbles burst, debt deflation results.

      Here we go again.


      Tyler Durden

      Sun, 03/08/2020 – 21:15

    • Elon Musk Defends "Dumb" Coronavirus Tweet With Inane, Pompous Sounding Non-Sequiturial Word Salad
      Elon Musk Defends “Dumb” Coronavirus Tweet With Inane, Pompous Sounding Non-Sequiturial Word Salad

      Just hours after Tesla CEO Elon Musk weighed in with one of his biggest brain farts of the century – calling the coronavirus panic “dumb”, he again took to Twitter at about 1AM his local time Sunday morning to double down on his statement and defend his reasoning using a word salad of half-assed smart-sounding terms that amounted to one giant non-sequitur.

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      Asked by another Twitter user what his reasoning was for calling the panic “dumb”, Musk responded by Tweeting:

      “Virality of C19 is overstated due to conflating diagnosis date with contraction date & over-extrapolating exponential growth, which is never what happens in reality. Keep extrapolating & virus will exceed mass of known universe!”

      Nevermind the fact that “virality” isn’t a medical term and is defined in the Oxford Dictionary as “the tendency of an image, video, or piece of information to be circulated rapidly and widely from one Internet user to another,” the point that Musk appears to be trying to make is simply that we don’t have enough raw data on incubation period to model out what the virus is going to do from here.

      But we guess that saying something simple wouldn’t work for Musk for two reasons:

      1. It doesn’t sound smart enough, there aren’t enough big words, and Musk appears to be on a quest to make sure everyone knows he got an “A” on all of his vocabulary tests while in primary school.
      2. If that’s actually his point, it could be argued from both sides of the camp in debating whether or not panic is warranted regarding the virus (i.e. not enough data could also mean things are worse than they appear). 

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      Musk then continued to opine, referring to the coronavirus as a “cold”:

      “Fatality rate also greatly overstated. Because there are so few test kits, those who die with respiratory symptoms are tested for C19, but those with minor symptoms are usually not. Prevalence of coronaviruses & other colds in general population is very high!”

      Which, of course, medical experts in Medical News Today recently debunked. In their piece about common myths regarding the coronavirus, one “conspiracy” they explored and debunked was that “SARS-CoV-2 is just a mutated form of the common cold”.

      Musk also assumes, again due to lack of data, that fatality rates will revert to a lower mean as testing becomes more ubiquitous. While this may be true, the lack of data again could go both ways, and isn’t necessarily a rock solid point to argue so early on in the data gathering process.

      Social media seemed to understand this and, like days ago, proceeded to rail Musk for his pompous diatribe:

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      As we noted hours ago, Musk’s tweeterpretation of events stands at odds with people who actually know what they’re talking about, despite garnering millions of likes.

      Actual mathematician Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who wrote the 2008 book “The Black Swan” that foreshadowed the global financial crisis, spoke out about Musk’s original Tweet on Sunday.  

      “If the word ‘panic’ means ‘exaggerated’ reaction, could be so at the individual level but NOT at the collective one. … We have survived for zillion years thanks to ‘irrational’ ‘panics,’” Taleb tweeted in response to Musk. 

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      Taleb said that “to act rational during a viral outbreak that has few consequences for the individual could lead to greater overall death. If we fail to panic, the virus becomes a bigger source of risk for society, he argued. 

      The novel coronavirus has reached pandemic levels, has infected hundreds in Musk’s home state of California, has infected nearly 100,000 people globally and has killed more than 3,400 people. As major Silicon Valley players like Facebook, Microsoft and Amazon all have confirmed at least one employee has tested positive, Musk’s interpretation of the events simply stands at odds with reality. Which, we guess, is what we should be used to with Musk at this point anyway.

      Maybe instead of lashing out on Twitter at 1AM to show the world what a genius he is, Musk can find some value in other types of daily affirmations.

      Say it with us, Elon. “I’m good enough, I’m smart enough, and doggone it, people like me!”


      Tyler Durden

      Sun, 03/08/2020 – 20:45

    • New York Firefighters Won't Respond To Coronavirus Calls
      New York Firefighters Won’t Respond To Coronavirus Calls

      The New York City Fire Department (FDNY) won’t dispatch its firefighters to potential coronavirus calls, as the city leaves it in the hands of EMTs and paramedics, according to the New York Post (which bizarrely opens their article with: “They’re not the Bravest when it comes to the coronavirus.”)

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      The department issued an order Friday temporarily relieving firefighters from responding to calls of the second highest priority for patients with fever, coughing, difficulty breathing or even those who are unconscious.

      A fever, cough and trouble breathing are the most common symptoms of the novel coronavirus, officially called COVID-19. –New York Post.

      “Effective immediately, the following call types will temporarily not receive a [certified first responder] response,” states paperwork obtained by the New York Daily News.

      According to the report, paramedics are shocked at the decision:

      “We can’t believe they would put out this order during one of the biggest citywide health crises. The fact that they’re abdicating all of this is just astounding,” said one first responder. “You’re talking about people who call themselves the Bravest.” Alternatively, you’re talking about people whose job it is to fight fires – not contract a hyper-virulent disease that would prevent them from fighting fires… as opposed to an EMT, whose job description includes likely exposure to pathogens.

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      “They would literally lose the firehouse. If you lose the house, the response times go through the roof,” said one veteran paramedic, while the Post notes that at least 30 Seattle-area firefighters were placed under quarantine after responding to a nursing home where coronavirus erupted.

      “It puts everyone at risk. It puts EMS workers at risk, when we don’t have the resources. It puts the lives of New Yorkers at risk if they’re not on scene,” said EMS lieutenant Anthony Almojera, vice president of Local 3621 of the FDNY Uniformed EMS Officers.

      “If this thing really takes off — we have the state of emergency now — these kids aren’t going to be able to handle it,” said Almojera, noting that there are a lot of rookies in the EMS ranks.

      All FDNY firefighters are certified first responders, and will continue to respond to the highest priority cases such as cardiac arrest or choking, said FDNY spokesman Frank Dwyer.

      “Firefighters continue to respond to the highest priority medical calls, whether they are potential COVID-19 calls or not including … cardiac and respiratory arrests, choking, and trauma incidents,” Dwyer said. –New York Post.

      City Councilman Joseph Borelli, who also serves as chairman of the fire and emergency management committee, called the restriction “a smart idea,” according to the Post. “It seems like a logical way to reduce the number of people who come in close contact with coronavirus patients,” he added. “Someone complaining of flu-like symptoms doesn’t need an engine company with five firefighters.“

      That said, the new order comes amid a “critical shortage” of EMT staff.


      Tyler Durden

      Sun, 03/08/2020 – 20:25

    • 'Let's Go Full Transparency': Trump Jr. Challenges Hunter Biden To A Debate
      ‘Let’s Go Full Transparency’: Trump Jr. Challenges Hunter Biden To A Debate

      Donald Trump Jr. has challenged Hunter Biden to a ‘full transparency’ debate.

      Speaking with Axios, Trump Jr. began by comparing Joe Biden’s obviously failing mental faculties to his father – saying that the media would be react much differently if Trump Sr. was making the same gaffes.

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      “You know, if Donald Trump mixed up Iowa and Ohio – once – the media, and you know where I’m going on this one, right guys?” said Trump Jr. ” The media would be on TV, every tele-psychologist would say, ‘Donald Trump has lost his mind. Donald, he’s in the later stages of dementia and a combination of Alzheimer’s. He’s not fit to run.’ Joe Biden doesn’t know what state he’s in 50% of the time. If Donald Trump did the equivalent, you would not hear anything other than that.”

      “How much will his son be part of that… Hunter?” asked Axios’ Jim VandeHei, adding “It’s obviously been a big part.”

      “Listen, I think it’s got to be a big part,” responded Don Jr. “I was an international business person before my father got into politics. That’s what we did. I’m not going to say I haven’t benefited from my father’s last name, just like Hunter Biden did. I’d be foolish to say that. But I haven’t benefited from my father’s taxpayer-funded office, okay?”

      “Hunter Biden, his father becomes VP, all of a sudden he goes over to the Ukraine,” he continued. “And he’s making $83 grand a month. So, you know, the media likes to do this sort of false equivalence. ‘You you’re doing this, you’re doing that.’ We stopped doing any new international business deals when my father won the presidency. So, you know what would be great? I’ll let you host it. You moderate a debate between Hunter Biden and myself. C’mon. Let’s do it. No, no, seriously. We can go full transparency. We show everything and we can talk about all of the places where I’m supposedly grifting, but Hunter Biden isn’t. I would love to do it.”

      Watch:

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      Tyler Durden

      Sun, 03/08/2020 – 20:05

    • Ted Cruz Says He Plans To Work From Home After "Brief Interaction" With Coronavirus Patient
      Ted Cruz Says He Plans To Work From Home After “Brief Interaction” With Coronavirus Patient

      A couple of days ago, we reported that two AIPAC attendees were among the individuals in Westchester County who were confirmed to be infected with the coronavirus. The news was particularly startling since VP Mike Pence, Secretary of State Pompeo and a handful of other top Republican figures were in attendance.

      Initially, it seemed like Pence & Co. were going to brush off the news. But a few minutes ago, Sen. Ted Cruz released a statement saying he will be staying home in Texas this week after possibly coming into contact with one of the infected individuals at the event.

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      Though he has no signs of the virus, because of the amount of interaction he has with his constituence, Cruz has decided to stay home until a full 14 days have passed since the event, which was held 10 days ago.

      So, unless symptoms emerge, Cruz should be good to go by the end of the week.

      However, the incident is almost guaranteed to become grist for memers, as well as the first of what could be many lawmaker quarantines, as one twitter user pointed out.

      Fortunately, those who have had contact with Cruz in the past 10 days don’t have to worry.

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      Though hopefully this won’t become as serious a problem as it is in Iran.

       

       

       

       

       


      Tyler Durden

      Sun, 03/08/2020 – 19:45

    • Iranian Regime Blames Coronavirus On Antisemetic "Zionist Conspiracy"
      Iranian Regime Blames Coronavirus On Antisemetic “Zionist Conspiracy”

      As the Iranian regime struggles to maintain its legitimacy following one of the most challenging quarters in its 40-year history, it has added another longstanding enemy of the Iranian people to its list of parties responsible for the coronavirus outbreak that has killed thousands (officially 233) in the country.

      That enemy? Israel and the Jews.

      According to the Jerusalem Post, Iran’s Press TV, the regime’s English-language propaganda network, has been pushing antisemitic conspiracies about the coronavirus in order to distract from Tehran’s abject mishandling of the outbreak, which has killed at least two lawmakers and several senior government officials.

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      Somehow, by sheer luck, perhaps, President Rouhani and the Ayatollah have avoided infection despite reports about contacts with sick officials in their government.

      Given that these failings are coming just weeks after the regime embarrassed itself in front of the world by shooting down a passenger plane packed with students, it’s perhaps unsurprising that in their desperation, the regime is appealing to the people’s most base impulses.

      Over the last several days, Iran has pushed reports claiming that “Zionists” created the coronavirus. As evidence, Press TV cited an article from the same anti-semitic website that once published an article – widely distributed in Iran – about how America’s Jewish population is responsible for the country’s wars in the Middle East.

      On March 5, Press TV claimed that “Zionist elements developed deadlier strain of coronavirus against Iran.” Although the report claimed to reference a foreign “academic,” it fits the pattern of Iran using foreign experts to give the regime’s own views a sense of authority. The agenda of Tehran has been three-fold since the coronavirus outbreak began to affect Iran in mid-February. Iran initially denied that there was a virus outbreak in February so that it could increase voter turnout on February 21.

      A few weeks back, after several government officials were infected, the Iranian regime latched on to Chinese propaganda ‘conspiracies’ claiming the US invented the virus and unleashed it as a ‘bioweapon’ against its adversaries.

      However the IRGC had other ideas. Its leader Hossein Salami began telling people that the virus was “biological warfare” derived from the US. “We are now dealing with a biological war,” he said on March 5. He argued it “may be the product of American biological warfare.” The IRGC’s narrative qquickly became Press TV’s talking point. An article on the homepage on March 8 links to the claim that not only is the US waging “biological warfare” but also cites an article that argues Israel is behind the virus. According to this article, a “former CIA officer” has argued that “the US and Israel are working together.” The same source that Iran’s Press TV relied on for its March 8 article is the same website in the US that once published an article claiming “America’s Jews are driving America’s wars.” That article was tweeted by another former CIA member Valerie Plame in 2017. She is now seeking to run for Congress even though her chances hit a setback on March 7 at a pre-primary convention. Iran’s Press TV relies on the same antisemitic rantings for its articles today about coronavirus.

      Unfortunately, these made-up stories are mostly a sign of desperation.


      Tyler Durden

      Sun, 03/08/2020 – 19:22

    • North Korea Fires Unidentified Projectile
      North Korea Fires Unidentified Projectile

      As if crashing futures and coronavirus panic wasn’t enough for your Sunday, North Korea has launched an unidentified projectile, according to South Korea’s Yonhap news agency. 

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      The South Korean military said early Monday local time that three unidentified projectiles were launched off the East Coast of North Korea. There was no further detail on the trajectory of the projectiles. 

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      The world is certainly on fire in the last 72 hours: 

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      Tyler Durden

      Sun, 03/08/2020 – 18:46

    • EU Chaos: Watch As Turkish Armored Vehicle Pulls Down Border Fence For Migrants
      EU Chaos: Watch As Turkish Armored Vehicle Pulls Down Border Fence For Migrants

      Submitted by SouthFront

      On Friday a video was shared on social media showing that Turkish security forces used an armored vehicle with a rope to pull down the fence at the Greek border and allow migrants to pass.

      The vehicle, according to Greek media is one of the “HIZIR/ATES” type vehicles with daytime and nighttime border surveillance vehicles, which Turkey received from May to August 2019, financed by a program – ironically enough – mostly paid for by the EU.

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      Furthermore, Turkish special police operations units were shown pointing their high-powered rifles at the Greek border patrol cars.

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      Turkish Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu over the weekend stated that that the migrants who cross to Europe would go above one million, which would cause the fall of European governments and destabilization of their economies.

      Meanwhile, Turkey continues with its claims of rescuing migrants in distress.

      A total of 60 asylum seekers, most of them children were rescued off Turkey’s Aegean coast, security sources said on Sunday.

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      Turkish Coast Guard teams said in a statement that a group of Afghans in a rubber boat, including 33 children, were rescued while attempting to cross to Greek islands.

      It is also accusing Greek soldiers of opening fire on migrants, with a video purportedly showing specifically that.

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      On March 6th, Turkey’s Communications Directorate Fahrettin Altun slammed Greek authorities over the “ill-treatment of refugees.”

      In a statement to the CNN International network, Altun responded to claims by Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis that Ankara is “assisting” thousands of migrants on its border to get into Europe.

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      “We categorically reject Prime Minister Mitsotakis’ allegations and we are deeply concerned about the ill-treatment of, and the use of lethal force against refugees by this country’s law enforcement and border security agents,” Altun said.


      Tyler Durden

      Sun, 03/08/2020 – 18:01

    • "This Is The Most Frightening Disease I've Ever Encountered In My Career" Says Architect Of National Pandemic Strategy
      “This Is The Most Frightening Disease I’ve Ever Encountered In My Career” Says Architect Of National Pandemic Strategy

      An infectious diseases expert at the forefront of the search for a coronavirus vaccine said on Friday that it was the most “frightening disease“ he’s ever encountered, and that “war is an appropriate analogy” for what the country is facing, as “50 – 70 percent of the global population” may become infected.

      Dr. Richard Hatchett, who sat on the White House Homeland Security Council in 2005 – 2006 and was a principal author of the National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza Implementation Plan, and currently heads the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, told the UK’s Channel 4:

      “This is the most frightening disease I’ve ever encountered in my career, and that includes Ebola, it includes MERS, it includes SARS. And it’s frightening because of the combination of infectiousness and a lethality that appears to be manyfold higher than flu.”

      He feels this way “because of the combination of infectiousness, and a lethality that appears to be many-fold higher than the flu.“

      When asked what concerns him the most about coronavirus, Hatchett said:

      “I think the most concerning thing about this virus is the combination of infectiousness and the ability to cause severe disease or death. And we have not since 1918, the Spanish Flu, seen a virus that combined those two qualities in the same way. We have seen very lethal viruses. We have seen certainly, Ebola, or Nipah, or any of the other diseases that CEPI, the organisation that I run, works on – but those viruses had high mortality rates – I mean, Ebola’s mortality rate in some settings is greater than 80%. But they don’t have the infectiousness that this does. They don’t have the potential to explode and spread globally.“

      Hatchett added “I don’t think it is a crazy analogy to compare this to World War II. The World Health Organisation is using those kinds of terms. They have seen what this virus is capable of doing.”

      He then said that coronavirus has the “potential to cause a global pandemic if we’re not already there.”

      Turning to how the virus has spread around the world, Hatchett said “Singapore and Hong Kong did not shut themselves down but they have mounted very aggressive responses. Contact tracing is very important. The voluntary quarantine of contacts is very important. The isolation of cases is important. I think there may be a time to close schools.”

      Created three years ago to fight emerging diseases that threaten global health, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations is a partnership of governments, industry and charities.


      Tyler Durden

      Sun, 03/08/2020 – 17:55

    Digest powered by RSS Digest

    Mar 08

    Today’s News 8th March 2020

    • All Hospital Beds In The US Will Be Filled With Patients 'By About May 8th' Due To Coronavirus: Analysis
      All Hospital Beds In The US Will Be Filled With Patients ‘By About May 8th’ Due To Coronavirus: Analysis

      A sobering analysis of how coronavirus is likely to impact the US healthcare system suggests that hospitals will be quickly overwhelmed with patients, and that all available beds will be filled by around May 8th if the virus tracks with Italy’s figures and 10% of patients require an ICU.

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      Medical workers in protective suits attend to coronavirus patients in the intensive care unit of a designated hospital in Wuhan, in China’s Hubei province, last week. (China Daily/Reuters)

      Of note, the Straits Times reported last week that thousands of people were waiting for hospital beds in South Korea as the disease surges.

      Liz Specht, a PhD in biology and the associate director of Science and Technology for the Good Food Institute laid out her concerns in a lengthy Twitter thread on Friday, which you can see here on Twitter, or continue reading below.

      Continued: 

      • We can expect that we’ll continue to see a doubling of cases every 6 days (this is a typical doubling time across several epidemiological studies). Here I mean *actual* cases. Confirmed cases may appear to rise faster in the short term due to new test kit rollouts.
      • We’re looking at about 1M US cases by the end of April, 2M by ~May 5, 4M by ~May 11, and so on. Exponentials are hard to grasp, but this is how they go.
      • As the healthcare system begins to saturate under this case load, it will become increasingly hard to detect, track, and contain new transmission chains. In absence of extreme interventions, this likely won’t slow significantly until hitting >>1% of susceptible population.
      • What does a case load of this size mean for healthcare system? We’ll examine just two factors — hospital beds and masks — among many, many other things that will be impacted.
      • The US has about 2.8 hospital beds per 1000 people. With a population of 330M, this is ~1M beds. At any given time, 65% of those beds are already occupied. That leaves about 330k beds available nationwide (perhaps a bit fewer this time of year with regular flu season, etc).
      • Let’s trust Italy’s numbers and assume that about 10% of cases are serious enough to require hospitalization. (Keep in mind that for many patients, hospitalization lasts for *weeks* — in other words, turnover will be *very* slow as beds fill with COVID19 patients).
      • By this estimate, by about May 8th, all open hospital beds in the US will be filled. (This says nothing, of course, about whether these beds are suitable for isolation of patients with a highly infectious virus.)
      • If we’re wrong by a factor of two regarding the fraction of severe cases, that only changes the timeline of bed saturation by 6 days in either direction. If 20% of cases require hospitalization, we run out of beds by ~May 2nd.
      • If only 5% of cases require it, we can make it until ~May 14th. 2.5% gets us to May 20th. This, of course, assumes that there is no uptick in demand for beds from *other* (non-COVID19) causes, which seems like a dubious assumption.
      • As healthcare system becomes increasingly burdened, Rx shortages, etc, people w/ chronic conditions that are normally well-managed may find themselves slipping into severe states of medical distress requiring intensive care & hospitalization. But let’s ignore that for now.
      • Alright, so that’s beds. Now masks. Feds say we have a national stockpile of 12M N95 masks and 30M surgical masks (which are not ideal, but better than nothing).
      • There are about 18M healthcare workers in the US. Let’s assume only 6M HCW are working on any given day. (This is likely an underestimate as most people work most days of the week, but again, I’m playing conservative at every turn.)
      • As COVID19 cases saturate virtually every state and county, which seems likely to happen any day now, it will soon be irresponsible for all HCWs to not wear a mask. These HCWs would burn through N95 stockpile in 2 days if each HCW only got ONE mask per day.
      • One per day would be neither sanitary nor pragmatic, though this is indeed what we saw in Wuhan, with HCWs collapsing on their shift from dehydration because they were trying to avoid changing their PPE suits as they cannot be reused.
      • How quickly could we ramp up production of new masks? Not very fast at all. The vast majority are manufactured overseas, almost all in China. Even when manufactured here in US, the raw materials are predominantly from overseas… again, predominantly from China.
      • Keep in mind that all countries globally will be going through the exact same crises and shortages simultaneously. We can’t force trade in our favor.
      • Now consider how these 2 factors – bed and mask shortages – compound each other’s severity. Full hospitals + few masks + HCWs running around between beds without proper PPE = very bad mix.
      • HCWs are already getting infected even w/ access to full PPE. In the face of PPE limitations this severe, it’s only a matter of time. HCWs will start dropping from the workforce for weeks at a time, leading to a shortage of HCWs that then further compounds both issues above.
      • We could go on and on about thousands of factors – # of ventilators, or even simple things like saline drip bags. You see where this is going.
      • Importantly, I cannot stress this enough: even if I’m wrong – even VERY wrong – about core assumptions like % of severe cases or current case #, it only changes the timeline by days or weeks. This is how exponential growth in an immunologically naïve population works.
      • Undeserved panic does no one any good. But neither does ill-informed complacency. It’s wrong to assuage the public by saying “only 2% will die.” People aren’t adequately grasping the national and global systemic burden wrought by this swift-moving of a disease.
      • I’m an engineer. This is what my mind does all day: I run back-of-the-envelope calculations to try to estimate order-of-magnitude impacts. I’ve been on high alarm about this disease since ~Jan 19 after reading clinical indicators in the first papers emerging from Wuhan.
      • Nothing in the last 6 weeks has dampened my alarm in the slightest. To the contrary, we’re seeing abject refusal of many countries to adequately respond or prepare. Of course some of these estimates will be wrong, even substantially wrong.
      • But I have no reason to think they’ll be orders-of-magnitude wrong. Even if your personal risk of death is very, very low, don’t mock decisions like canceling events or closing workplaces as undue “panic”.
      • These measures are the bare minimum we should be doing to try to shift the peak – to slow the rise in cases so that healthcare systems are less overwhelmed. Each day that we can delay an extra case is a big win for the HC system.
      • And yes, you really should prepare to buckle down for a bit. All services and supply chains will be impacted. Why risk the stress of being ill-prepared?
      • Worst case, I’m massively wrong and you now have a huge bag of rice and black beans to burn through over the next few months and enough Robitussin to trip out.
      • One more thought: you’ve probably seen multiple respected epidemiologists have estimated that 20-70% of world will be infected within the next year. If you use 6-day doubling rate I mentioned above, we land at ~2-6 billion infected by sometime in July of this year.
      • Obviously I think the doubling time will start to slow once a sizeable fraction of the population has been infected, simply because of herd immunity and a smaller susceptible population.
      • But take the scenarios above (full beds, no PPE, etc, at just 1% of the US population infected) and stretch them out over just a couple extra months.
      • That timeline roughly fits with consensus end-game numbers from these highly esteemed epidemiologists. Again, we’re talking about discrepancies of mere days or weeks one direction or another, but not disagreements in the overall magnitude of the challenge.
      • This is not some hypothetical, fear-mongering, worst-case scenario. This is reality, as far as anyone can tell with the current available data.
      • That’s all for now. Standard disclaimers apply: I’m a PhD biologist but *not* an epidemiologist. Thoughts my own. Yadda yadda. Stay safe out there. /end

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      Tyler Durden

      Sat, 03/07/2020 – 23:22

    • How To Avoid Getting Infected By The Coronavirus
      How To Avoid Getting Infected By The Coronavirus

      As worldwide coronavirus cases blow past 100,000 sickened, the question on everyone’s mind is: “How do I avoid getting infected?”

      Peak Prosperity’s Chris Martenson goes through the best steps for self-protection in this video (jump to the 35m:10s mark for his summary):

      Crazy infectious with a serious complication rate near 15% and a case fatality rate of over 3%, many of us are likely to catch this virus, and most of us will probably know at least one person who dies from it.

      And with that many sick people, the health care systems around the world are going to be overwhelmed. Even if you don’t have the virus, you still may not be able to get critical care for other health emergencies (sickness, injury, baby delivery, etc)

      Chris shares some of the dozens of stories we’re receiving from health practitioners all over the world who feel shocked and betrayed by how poorly their hospitals are prepared for what’s coming.

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      So take steps now to increase your odds of being one of those who avoids covid-19 altogether.

      Reading the coronavirus preparation megathreads available for free on PeakProsperity.com is a great way to get started:

      1. Coronavirus: Sanitation, PPE and Self Quarantine Megathread

      2. Coronavirus: Medicinals, Herbals and Supplements Megathread

      3. Coronavirus: Home Prep, Deep Pantry & Gardening Megathread

      If you’re one of the many new readers here on Peak Prosperity, be sure you’re up-to-date on developments with the coronavirus. All of our latest covid-19 video updates, podcasts and articles can be accessed here for free.

      And here’s a brief list of the more recent material that Chris and I have published for our premium subscribers, to give you a sense of what’s behind the paywall (free executive summary, enrollment required for full access)


      Tyler Durden

      Sat, 03/07/2020 – 23:15

    • 'Grand Princess' Passenger Who Died Of Covid-19 Probably Caught The Virus In California, Carnival Says
      ‘Grand Princess’ Passenger Who Died Of Covid-19 Probably Caught The Virus In California, Carnival Says

      The latest alarming twist in the ‘Grand Princess’ saga is that the 71-year-old former passenger who died in California’s Placer County may have already been infected with the virus when he boarded, meaning that the virus may have been circulating in northern California as early as late January.

      It’s certainly a disturbing discovery as officials in California and Washington State have stumbled upon an alarming rash of potentially infected individuals many of whom have been unable to secure a test, even though federal officials said Saturday that tests are being shipped.

      Though, as USA Today points out, this is only a theory at this point; investigators stressed that nothing has been confirmed. That would also seriously undermine the Trump Administration’s response, as President Trump has at times seemed dismissive of the threat posed by the virus, something that Democrats are already exploiting for political points, even as the administration is “catching up” – in the words of former FDA director Dr. Scott Gottlieb.

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      However, “if true, it could mean there was so-called community spread of the virus in California earlier than authorities have previously disclosed,” one official said.

      During a conference call with reporters on Saturday evening, Carnival Corp Chief Medical Officer Grant Tarling said the man boarded the ship in San Francisco on Feb. 11, when it set sail for Mexico.

      Tarling said the man sought medical treatment from the ship’s medical center on Feb. 20, when he reported symptoms of an “acute respiratory illness” for about a week.

      Since the virus has an incubation of roughly five to six days for the first symptoms to emerge, it’s reasonable to suspect that he picked it up before boarding, meaning it was likely acquired in Cali then brought on board the ship. 

      “We believe this case was community acquired in California and brought on the ship,” Tarling said.

      Interestingly, Placer County health officials are disputing the company’s claim: They’re insisting he probably picked up the virus aboard the cruise.

      “The Placer County health officer, however, disputed Tarling’s statement and said the passenger probably contracted the virus that causes the COVID-19 disease while on the cruise.”

      Is this just the latest example of authorities refusing to accept the true gravity of the situation?


      Tyler Durden

      Sat, 03/07/2020 – 23:10

    • Forbidden Parenting
      Forbidden Parenting

      Authored by John Stossel via Townhall.com,

      South Carolina mom Debra Harrell worked at McDonald’s.

      She couldn’t afford day care for Regina, her 9-year-old daughter, so she took her to work.

      But Regina was bored at McDonald’s.

      One day, she asked if she could just play in the neighborhood park instead.

      “I felt safe there,” tells me in my new video, “because I was with my friends and their parents.”

      “She had her cellphone, a pocketbook with money in it,” says Debra.

      “She had everything she needed.”

      Regina was happy. Debra was happy.

      But one parent asked Regina where her mom was, and then called the police. Officers went to McDonald’s and arrested Debra.

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      In jail, they berated her.

      “You can’t leave a child who is 9 years old in the park by herself!” said one officer. “What if some sex offender came by?”

      People interviewed by the media were also outraged.

      “What if a man came and just snatched her?” asked one.

      “This day and time, you never know who’s around!” said another.

      But what are they talking about?

      Crime in America is way down, half what it was in the ’90s. Reports of missing children are also down.

      If kids are kidnapped or molested, it’s almost always by a relative or an acquaintance, not by a stranger in a park.

      Nevertheless, prosecutors charged Debra Harrell with “willful abandonment of a child,” a crime that carries up to a 10-year sentence.

      They also took Regina away from her mom — for two weeks.

      “I would cry as night because I was really scared,” Regina told me. “I didn’t know where I was, or what was going on.”

      Fortunately, attorney Robert Phillips took Debra’s case for free. He didn’t like the way police and media portrayed her.

      “Here was this black female that society gives a hard time. ‘Welfare queens, living at home, not getting a job!’ Well, that’s what she was doing,” he said.

      “She was out working, trying the best she could to take care of her child. And now we’re beating her up because we didn’t like the way she took care of her child.”

      The cops said that Harrell should have sent her daughter to day care. But even if she could have afforded it, it’s not clear that day care is safer.

      “We found 42 incidents of sexual molestations, rapes in day cares,” said Phillips.

      “We couldn’t find (in South Carolina in the last 20 years) a single abduction in a park.”

      Philips blames people in my business for scaring people about the wrong things.

      “The media has brought up this ‘stranger danger’ to where, if you’re not under the protective wings of mom and dad 24/7, then you’re exposing your child to some unknown danger.”

      That has frightened police and child welfare workers into taking absurd steps when parents leave children alone.

      In Maryland, police accused parents of child neglect for letting their kids roam around their neighborhood.

      In Kentucky, after police reported a mom who left her kids in the car while she dashed into a store, child welfare workers strip-searched the kids to make sure they weren’t being abused.

      This doesn’t protect kids. It mostly scares parents into depriving their kids of chances to learn.

      “When you don’t let them spread their wings, that’s when they get in trouble!” says Debra.

      She was fortunate that her case got enough attention that even Nikki Haley, then South Carolina’s governor, asked that Regina be given back to her mom.

      Prosecutors finally dropped the child abandonment charge.

      It’s just not right that when stranger kidnappings are increasingly rare, police and child welfare workers are more eager to punish parents who let kids play on their own.

      “A Utah law guarantees that giving kids some reasonable independence isn’t ‘neglect,'” says Lenore Skenazy, of the nonprofit Let Grow, “More states need this!”

      Of course, some parents are so neglectful that government should intervene.

      But as lawyer Phillips put it, they should intervene “only if you are subjecting your child to a real harm. We should not have unreasonable intrusions by the government telling us every little detail how to raise our children.”


      Tyler Durden

      Sat, 03/07/2020 – 22:40

    • Joe Biden In 2020 Duplicates Hillary Clinton In 2016
      Joe Biden In 2020 Duplicates Hillary Clinton In 2016

      Authored by Eric Zuesse via The Saker Blog,

      Hillary Clinton, of course, received the Democratic Party nomination in 2016 and was widely expected to beat Trump but she lost to him (though she won California by 4,269,978 in the popular vote, and so beat Trump by 2,864,974 in the nationwide popular vote, while she lost all other states by 1,405,002 votes, and so she would have been California’s President if she had won, but the rest of the nation wouldn’t have been happy).

      Among the top reasons why Democrats in primaries and caucuses voted for Clinton was that they thought she would have a higher likelihood of beating the Republican nominee than Sanders did. This was the impression that the Democratic National Committee spread, and the Party’s voters believed in it.

      However, by the time when Election Day rolled around, the passion that Republicans felt for their nominee, Trump, was much stronger than was the passion that Democrats felt for their nominee, Clinton. During the Democratic primaries, polls were showing that the Democrats who were voting for Sanders to become their Party’s nominee were far more passionate in their support of him than was the case regarding the Democrats who were voting for Clinton to become the Democratic nominee. And nobody questions that Trump was the passion-candidate in the Republican Party’s primaries and caucuses.

      On 1 May 2017, McClatchy newspapers headlined “Democrats say they now know exactly why Clinton lost” and reported that,

      A select group of top Democratic Party strategists have used new data about last year’s presidential election to reach a startling conclusion about why Hillary Clinton lost. Now they just need to persuade the rest of the party they’re right.

      Many Democrats have a shorthand explanation for Clinton’s defeat: Her base didn’t turn out, Donald Trump’s did and the difference was too much to overcome.

      But new information shows that Clinton had a much bigger problem with voters who had supported President Barack Obama in 2012 but backed Trump four years later.

      Those Obama-Trump voters, in fact, effectively accounted for more than two-thirds of the reason Clinton lost, according to Matt Canter, a senior vice president of the Democratic political firm Global Strategy Group. In his group’s analysis, about 70 percent of Clinton’s failure to reach Obama’s vote total in 2012 was because she lost these voters. …

      Although Clinton has blamed her loss on Putin, and on Sanders — and perhaps if Biden wins the nomination he will likewise blame Putin and Sanders if he subsequently loses to Trump — the passion factor is actually much stronger an influence on whom the winner of an electoral contest will be than losing candidates wish to admit or publicly acknowledge; and it could turn out to be the case in 2020, just the same as it did in 2016.

      On 24 August 2017, NPR bannered “Here’s How Many Bernie Sanders Supporters Ultimately Voted For Trump” and reported that,

      “12 percent of people who voted for Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., in the 2016 Democratic presidential primaries voted for President Trump in the general election. That is according to the data from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES) — a massive election survey of around 50,000 people.”

      That study was done for CCES by Brian Shaffner of Tufts and Harvard Universities, who also reported that:

      • WI: 9% of Sanders voters voted for Trump.

      • MI: 8% of Sanders voters voted for Trump.

      • PA: 16% of Sanders voters voted for Trump.

      Shaffner failed, however, to mention that Sanders beat Clinton in Wisconsin and won 570,192 votes in the Democratic primary there, and that Trump beat Clinton there by 22,748 votes, and that 9% of Sanders’s voters having voted for Trump there constituted 51,317 Sanders-Trump voters, and that this was 2.26 times as high as was Trump’s 22,747-vote victory-margin in Wisconsin, and, consequently: Sanders’s voters who voted for Trump were 2.26 times Trump’s victory-margin against Clinton there; so, clearly, Trump became President because of the huge number of Sanders voters who voted for Trump against Clinton. And it was the same thing that happened in each of the other two crucial states that Trump won in 2016.

      Sanders likewise beat Clinton in Michigan and won 598,943 votes in the Democratic primary there, and Trump beat Clinton there by 10,704 votes, and 8% of Sanders voters having voted for Trump there constituted 47,915 Sanders-Trump voters, and this was 4.47 times as high as was Trump’s victory-margin in Michigan, so that Sanders’s voters who voted for Trump were 4.47 times Trump’s victory-margin against Clinton there.

      Similarly, though Clinton beat Sanders in Pennsylvania, where Sanders won 731,881 votes in the Democratic primary, Trump beat Clinton there by 44,292 votes, and 16% of Sanders voters having voted for Trump there constituted 117,101 Sanders-Trump voters, and this was 2.64 times as high as Trump’s victory-margin in Pennsylvania, so that Sanders’s voters who voted for Trump were 2.64 times Trump’s victory-margin against Clinton there.

      Of course, virtually all of the primary voters for Sanders would have been voting against Trump if Sanders had been the Democratic National Committee’s choice as the nominee instead of Clinton, whom they chose instead. By contrast, almost none of Clinton’s voters in the primaries would have voted against Clinton and for Trump in the final election (though some of them would have voted third-party or not at all — just as happened with Clinton’s actually being the Democratic nominee). Sanders would have overwhelmingly beaten Trump according to all of the nationally-polled match-ups — by far larger margins in a Sanders-Trump contest than Clinton was shown likely to in a Trump-Clinton contest.

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      The DNC basically chose the overwhelmingly weaker nominee (and sometimes they even did it blatantly), and so they lost to Trump instead of to have their billionaire donors lose to Sanders and to the American public by Sanders becoming the nominee and then the President. Keeping the support from their billionaire donors was the DNC’s top priority, in 2016. Of course, America’s voting public generally don’t know that both the DNC and the RNC are far more committed to keeping the support from their billionaire donors than they are committed to winning elections. This is why those voters pay close heed to what their Party’s leaders say about which candidates are ‘electable’ and which ones aren’t.

      The voters don’t understand how politics actually works, in today’s America — they think that winning the current general election is a Party official’s top priority. They think that Party professionals are professionals at selecting winners, but instead Party professionals are professionals at pleasing their Party’s billionaires. If a voter wants to please him or her self instead of please a group of billionaires, that voter ought to vote for whomever that voter thinks would best serve that voter and not serve any group of billionaires

      As the Huffington Post reported on March 4th, the day after Joe Biden’s huge Super-Tuesday win, “‘Voters liked both candidates but clearly consolidated around the one they saw as most electable,’ said Jared Leopold, who was the communications director for the Democratic Governors’ Association during the race. ‘The intraparty ideological fight pales in comparison to the thirst to beat Donald Trump and his buddies.’”

      Those people’s top concern is to please the few individuals who fund their careers. Winning the current electoral contest isn’t actually their #1 concern, though voters think it is. The Party professionals have a longer-term, personally career-oriented, goal in mind — pleasing their bosses’ bosses.

      *  *  *

      Investigative historian Eric Zuesse is the author, most recently, of  They’re Not Even Close: The Democratic vs. Republican Economic Records, 1910-2010, and of  CHRIST’S VENTRILOQUISTS: The Event that Created Christianity.


      Tyler Durden

      Sat, 03/07/2020 – 22:10

    • Elon Musk Says Panic About Coronavirus, Which Has Killed Over 3,400, Is "Dumb"
      Elon Musk Says Panic About Coronavirus, Which Has Killed Over 3,400, Is “Dumb”

      It probably wouldn’t be a global news item if the world’s greatest genius-cum subsidy addict-cum securities fraudster didn’t weigh in with his two cents about it on Twitter. Such was the case with Elon Musk and the ongoing coronavirus saga Friday. Musk, perhaps annoyed that the fatal virus was stealing his spotlight, or perhaps finally coming to terms with the harsh reality that a recession could wind up finally being the straw that breaks his camel’s back, just had to opine about coronavirus on Friday – and, of course, it had to stand at odds with what everything the global health community has said.

      As doctors globally speak out about how healthcare systems are wildly unprepared for the coming pandemic – with Italian doctors urging the rest of the world to hunker down and the U.S. healthcare system reportedly preparing for millions of cases, the world’s favorite non-doctor, non-physicist, non-engineer but-somehow-still-a-genius thought as hard as he could and forced out one of his biggest brain farts yet on Twitter on Friday, simply saying “The coronavirus panic is dumb”.

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      Alas, Musk’s tweeterpretation of events stands at odds with people who actually know what they’re talking about, despite garnering over a million likes in a little over 24 hours.

      Meanwhile, the novel coronavirus has reached pandemic levels, has infected over 100 people in Musk’s home state of California, has infected nearly 100,000 people globally and has killed more than 3,400 people. As major Silicon Valley players like Facebook, Microsoft and Amazon all have confirmed at least one employee has tested positive, Musk’s interpretation of the events simply stands at odds with reality. Which, we guess, is what we should be used to with Musk at this point anyway.

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      Meanwhile, the coronavirus isn’t “dumb” enough for Tesla to not use it as a crutch when their inevitably poor numbers start rolling in during subsequent quarters. “Tesla has acknowledged that the coronavirus outbreak may have a material adverse impact on its business,” CNBC said Friday.

      So, which is it, Elon – “dumb” or “material”?

      Musk, of course, has no background in virology or medicine. But one person who does, Richard Hatchett, the doctor leading efforts to find a vaccine for coronavirus, said on Friday: “This is the most frightening disease I’ve ever encountered in my career.”

      In response to the “dumb” tweet, social media did its job and immediately put Musk on blast for his comments:

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      Tyler Durden

      Sat, 03/07/2020 – 21:40

    • Italy Places Milan Region Under Quarantine As First Covid-19-Linked Death Reported In Latin America: Live Updates
      Italy Places Milan Region Under Quarantine As First Covid-19-Linked Death Reported In Latin America: Live Updates

      Summary:

      • 21 cases confirmed aboard ‘Grand Princess’
      • First death reported in Latin America
      • 2 dozen American tourists quarantined on cruise ship
      • Illinois confirms sixth case, shuts Chicago school
      • South Korea reports 367 new cases raising total to 7,134
      • US Marine in Virginia catches coronavirus
      • San Francisco confirms six new cases
      • Italy quarantines half the country
      • British Columbia confirms six cases
      • Spain quarantines town
      • First case in Washington DC
      • US death toll hits 19 as two more cases in WA.
      • New York cases hit 76
      • Australia reports third death

      * * *

      Update (2000ET): Though the coronavirus has spread more slowly across the warmer climate of Latin America, the first fatality linked to Covid-19 on the continent has just been reported by the Argentinian health ministry.

      • ARGENTINA CONFIRMS FIRST DEATH IN LATIN AMERICA OF PATIENT DIAGNOSED WITH CORONAVIRUS – HEALTH MINISTRY STATEMENT

      In other news, the Washington Post reports that two dozen American tourists are being quarantined on a cruise ship in the Egyptian city of Luxor, according to two passengers, as Egyptina health officials confirmed 33 new cases of the virus on Saturday.

      South Korea, meanwhile, just reported another 367 Covid-19 cases, bringing the total to 7,134.

      According to the Chicago Tribune, students and staff at a Chicago public school have been asked to stay home next week while the school undergoes a “deep clean”. They’ve also been advised to stay at home and not leave until mid-March, after a classroom assistant – a previous passenger on the Grand Princess before disembarking on Feb. 21.

      The special education teacher at Vaughn Occupational High School in Portage Park has been hospitalized since becoming the sixth positive case in the state of Illinois – with all the cases having been identified in Cook County.

      Students and staff at the school have been asked to stay in self-quarantine until March 18, unless directed otherwise by the department of public health.

      Looking back, over the last 24 hours, four more deaths have been recorded in the US, two in Florida, and two in Washington State from the same Kirkland nursing home as earlier deaths.

      The first case confirmed in Washington DC has been described as a resident in his 50s who appears to have contracted the virus in late February, when he started feeling ill. Health officials said the man likely didn’t attend the AIPAC conference where several infected individuals attended.

      In other US news, a US Marine in Virginia has tested positive at Fort Belavoir. Officials at Fort Belvoir Community Hospital and the Virginia Department of Health are working with state and federal officials to take care of the soldier and ensure the virus doesn’t spread.

      Gov. Ralph Northam has been briefed on the situation and the state currently says the risk to the public is low, according to NBC News.

      * * *

      Update (1740ET): Six more San Francisco residents have tested positive for coronavirus on Saturday, bringing the total case count in the city to eight, public health officials said, according to the San Francisco Chronicle.

      All of the people who were newly diagnosed are isolating at home and in good condition, the San Francisco Department of Public Health said. The previous two patients were both hospitalized.

      Two of the new patients are in their 20s, three are in their 40s, and the sixth person is in his or her 50s. Three of the patients are women and three are men. All of them have had contact with someone who already has been diagnosed with COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus, public health officials said.

      “These newly confirmed cases are an indication of the increasing circulation of coronavirus in the community, as expected, given the patterns in our state, region and our own city,” Dr. Grant Colfax, director of health, said in a statement.

      Washington DC Mayor Muriel Bowser announced on twitter that the first case has been confirmed in the nation’s capital.

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      Meanwhile, in Australia, NSW Health has confirmed that a man in his 80s has died in a Sydney hospital, and has tested positive for Covid-19, making him the third coronavirus-related death in Australia. Chief Health Officer Dr. Kerry Chant passed on sympathies to the family of the patient.

      * * *

      Update (1620ET): Canadian officials have confirmed six new cases of the virus in British Columbia on Saturday, bringing the total cases in Canada to 57.

      Two of the new cases were passengers on the Grand Princess cruise ship, traveling from between Feb 11 – 21, Adrian Dix, minister of health, and Dr. Bonnie Henry, British Columbia’s provincial health officer said in a press statement Saturday.

      * * *

      Update (1530ET): Washington state health officials have confirmed another 2 deaths, raising the US death toll to 19.

      • SEATTLE, KING COUNTY REPORT 13 NEW VIRUS CASES; TOTAL AT 71
      • SEATTLE, KING COUNTY REPORTS 2 ADDITIONAL DEATHS FROM VIRUS
      • SEATTLE, KING COUNTY SAYS TOTAL DEATHS AT 15 FROM VIRUS

      Here’s an updated map of US cases, courtesy of the Washington Post.

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      In addition to the cancellation of SXSW in Austin, which has led to an outcry about how going a year without the massive marketing circlejerk could cause the city’s economy to implode.

      Here’s the list of cases broken down by state:

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      * * *

      Update (1420ET): Following in the footsteps of China and South Korea, both of which eventually locked down the local epicenter(s) of the coronavirus breakout by imposing draconian quasi-quaratines, moments ago Italy announced that on the day the number of new cases in the country exploded by 1,247 hitting a total of 5,883, the federal government has placed the entire region of Lombardy, the province with the most Italian coronavirus infections, on lockdown.   

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      The government has drafted a decree (which will likely be announced this evening in Rome) during an emergency working session that will, according to reports, close all ski resorts, museums and other cultural attractions, and – most importantly – orders that nobody enter or leave the region of Lombardy, as well as 11 other provinces in northern and central Italy.

      The Italian government has faced pressure to step up controls as travelers visiting Italy have carried the virus across Europe, Asia and the Middle East, even to North and South America.

      Amazingly, the lockdown will last until April 3, meaning for nearly a month, the most productive region of the Italian economy will be effectively shuttered.

      South Korea has imposed similar measures in Daegu, the epicenter of what has become the worst outbreak outside China. And at one point 760 million Chinese were subjected to some level of restrictions on movement (with many required to remain inside their homes at all times with only special exceptions).

      And although South Korea is widely considered home to the biggest outbreak outside China, Italy has reported 233 deaths, the largest number of deaths outside China and Iran.

      The decree details from Reuters:

      • ITALY DRAFT DECREE TELLS PEOPLE NOT TO ENTER OR LEAVE REGION OF LOMBARDY AND 11 PROVINCES IN OTHER REGIONS
      • ITALY’S DRAFT DECREE SAYS SCHOOLS IN LOMBARDY AND 11 PROVINCES WILL REMAIN CLOSED UNTIL AT LEAST APRIL 3
      • ITALY DRAFT DECREE ON CORONAVIRUS SHOWS NEW RESTRICTIVE MEASURES FOR NEW AREAS IN REGIONS OF LOMBARDY, VENETO, EMILIA AND PIEDMONT
      • ITALY DRAFT DECREE URGES PEOPLE NOT TO MOVE AROUND INSIDE AREAS COVERED BY DECREE EXCEPT FOR ESSENTIAL WORKING NEEDS AND EMERGENCIES
      • ITALY DRAFT DECREE SAYS ALL LEAVE FOR HEALTHCARE WORKERS CANCELLED IN LOMBARDY AND 11 PROVINCES
      • ITALY DRAFT DECREE SAYS ALL GYMS, SWIMMING POOLS, HEALTH CENTRES AND SPAS TO CLOSE IN THE SAME AREAS
      • ITALY’S DRAFT DECREE CLOSES ALL SKI RESORTS, MUSEUMS, CULTURAL CENTRES IN SAME AREAS
      • ITALY’S DRAFT DECREE SAYS ALL SHOPPING CENTRES TO CLOSE AT WEEKENDS IN SAME AREAS
      • ITALY’S DRAFT DECREE CLOSES ALL SKI RESORTS, MUSEUMS, CULTURAL CENTRES IN SAME AREAS

      Elsewhere in Europe, health authorities on the small Mediterranean island nation of Malta have raised the number of people with coronavirus to three, after the parents of the girl first infected tested positive too.

      Iran also reported a more than 1,200 case jump in infections to a total of 5,823.

      One computer scientist who has been modeling outbreaks around the world said Italy’s spread has produced “one of the most alarming charts I have ever seen.”

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      Earlier in the day on Saturday, Spanish pol

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      According to the Associated Press, the Spanish government has deployed police in a northern town to help enforce a home quarantine placed on a neighborhood with a high number of residents infected by the virus. The regional government of La Rioja said Saturday that the extra measures have been taken to contain the outbreak in Haro, a town of 11,000 residents, where the majority of the 39 cases in the region are located.

      * * *

      Update (1350ET): Washington state officials are reportedly considering taking over a nursing home in Kirkland where at least six residents have died, possibly the first example in US history of the federal government nationalizing a nursing home, WSJ reports.

      * * *

      Update (1345ET): French health officials have reported another 233 cases, bringing the country-wide total to 949. Of those, 16 patients have died, up 5 from 11.

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      * * *

      Update (1255ET): Gov Cuomo has declared a state of emergency in New York after 21 new cases of Covid-19 were confirmed, bringing the state-wide total to 76, according to NBC 4 New York.

      Seven of the cases are in NYC. Total cases in the tri-state area have hit 80.

      There have been at least 80 total cases found in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut, with the biggest portion of infected patientsin NY’s wealthy Westchester County, just north of the Bronx. There have been 57 people to test positive there, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Saturday, almost all of which are connected to the cluster that started with the midtown Manhattan lawyer Lawrence Garbuz and his family. Ten patients out of the 76 in NY State are currently hospitalized, the rest have been asked to self-quarantine and contact a doctor if their condition worsens, Cuomo said.

      Aside from NYC and Westchester, other cases have been confirmed on Long Island and in Upstate New York’s Saratoga County.

      * * *

      Update (1240ET): Now that every country in Europe has been infected with the virus, Italian health officials confirmed on Saturday that the national death toll has hit 233 after officials reported another 36 deaths.

      • DEATH TOLL IN ITALY OF CORONAVIRUS PATIENTS RISES TO 233 FROM 197 ON FRIDAY
      • TOTAL NUMBER OF CONFIRMED CASES OF CORONAVIRUS IN ITALY RISES TO 5,883 FROM 4,636 ON FRIDAY

      The epicenter of the outbreak in Europe is seeing shit go straight parabolic.

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      Italian government officials announced that they would adopt a new decree on Saturday with measures to to try and stem the contagion, but it’s not clear yet what exactly they’re planning.

      Meanwhile, as more European countries track infected Italians spreading the virus within their borders, Sweden – of all places – is presenting a model of how to swiftly identify and quarantine those who have been exposed. All cases of Swedes who traveled to Northern Italy to ski during the holidays have been tracked, all people who came into contact with the possibly infected have been quarantined.

      Unfortunately, the outbreak is no longer limited to the north of Italy.On Saturday, CNN reports, a US Navy sailor stationed in Naples tested positive for the virus, marking the first case for a US servicemember stationed in Europe.

      The servicemember was stationed at a naval support facility in Naples. They are receiving medical and other support in accordance with CDC guidelines.

      * * *

      Democratic Party leader Nicola Zingarelli, one of the most powerful politicians in Italy, has tested positive for the coronavirus, Italian media reported on Saturday.

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      Zingarelli

      Since the beginning of the outbreak, Italy has been the epicenter of the outbreak in Europe; on Friday, the total number of confirmed cases in the country climbed above 4,500, with 197 deaths confirmed.

      “I have coronavirus too,” Zingaretti said in a video posted on Facebook, adding he was in self-isolation at home and that all the people he had been in contact with in the latest days were being contacted for checks. He said he was well.

      As the outbreak has spread to nearly every country in North America, Asia and Europe. On Friday, Slovakia, the last remaining nation in Europe without any confirmed cases of the virus, confirmed its first case and almost immediately implemented a ban on flights from Italy, which has been blamed for spreading the virus across the continent, per NYT.

      Since the number of new cases being confirmed outside China surpassed the number of new cases being confirmed inside China early last week, South Korea, Italy, Iran and now the US have emerged as the new epicenters, though Europe’s largest economies are all struggling with largely uncontained outbreaks.

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      Across Europe, bureaucrats have been hesitant to suspend Schengen area free-travel, allowing the virus to effortlessly spread across the continent.

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      Italy has been the European country hardest hit by the epidemic, with a total of 4,636 cases and 197 deaths on Friday, and is currently reporting more deaths per day form the virus than any other country in the world.

      The coronavirus death toll in the United States reached 17 when Florida health officials reported two fatalities, the first in the state, late Friday, the Washington Post reports. They were the first deaths recorded outside the West Coast, where Washington State and California have emerged as the hardest hit states.

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      In Iran, officials reported 1,076 new cases of coronavirus and 21 new deaths on Saturday, bringing the total to 5,823 cases and 145 deaths. And a newly elected Iranina MP has died after two dozen Iranian lawmakers were infected, as well as several senior government officials.

      In the Balkans, Bulgaria has closed all schools due to “influenza panic” – even though it’s only reported a handful of suspected cases.

      Across the US, there are more than 300 cases reported (though not yet ‘confirmed’ by the CDC) and at least half of all states have confirmed cases. On Friday, Hawaii, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Connecticut, Nebraska, Indiana, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and South Carolina all confirmed their first cases of the virus. 

      In Connecticut, a hospital employee has tested positive for novel coronavirus, the first case detected in the state after several close calls back in January, per NBC. The patient lives in Westchester County and is currently there under quarantine.

      “We believe she was infected in New York,” said Kerry Eaton, COO of Danbury Hospital.

      As we noted last night, a Hawaii resident who traveled on the Grand Princess but disembarked in Hawaii has been confirmed with the virus.

      Over in the tri-state area, where the virus has spread rapidly, nearly 50 cases have been confirmed (between NYC area, NJ & Connecticut). Here’s a flow-chart showing the progression of infections in the NYC area.

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      Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear confirmed the state’s first case of the virus late Friday afternoon, Kentucky.com reports.

      Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt announced Oklahoma’s first case yesterday during a press conference where he was flanked by health officials. The Tulsa County man had testied positive and is now in quarantine, according to Oklahoma’s Newson6.

      Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts and health officials also confirmed their first case on Friday (though a military base in the state hosted some of the evacuees from the ‘Diamond Princess’ and Wuhan). According to Nebraska health officials, the patient was traveling in the UK when she became ill.

      Officials insisted it isn’t a case of ‘community spread’, suggesting she caught the infection abroad.

      The 36-year-old woman from Omaha first checked into the Methodist hospital emergency room Thursday, after presenting with symptoms of pneumonia. Before that, she had relatively mild conditions, KETV reports.

      Indiana officials Friday urged the public to take necessary precautions after reporting the state’s first case of the virus. The person is an adult from Marion County who traveled to Boston where he attended a conference, officials said. He is in stable condition, is self-isolated and does not require hospitalization, according to Indy Star.

      The risk to the public is low, health officials said. They said they have no indications so far that the man transmitted the disease to anyone else. They also said that the diagnosis did not come as a surprise.

      “The question has never been if Indiana would get a case but when we would see one,” said Indiana State Health Commissioner Dr. Kris Box. “This is an isolated case at the time.”

      She was confirmed to be infected on Friday afternoon. She started showing symptoms 10 days before arriving at the hospital, and the state health department is working to find everyone she had contact with.

      Universities, other major institutions and event planners canceled public gatherings and took other steps to combat the rapidly spreading virus. Stanford University said all classes would be conducted online for the remainder of the winter quarter, following the lead of the University of Washington in Seattle. Minutes ago, NBC Bay Area reported that Stanford officials confirmed a faculty member who works in a clinic has tested positive for the virus, while two undergraduates are also under quarantine.

      The biggest news overnight was that Austin’s South by Southwest festival has been cancelled. The cancellation is a huge blow to Austin’s economy – the event is one of the main drivers of Austin’s transformation from a quirky Texas college town to a ‘destination city’ for white middle-class post-grads with no real plans or ambition, other than to maybe work on-set during the next Linklater production.

      Circling back to Iran, two lawmakers have now died, according to the Times of Israel, which cited reports from Iranian state news agency IRNA. 

      An Iranian lawmaker died from the novel coronavirus on Saturday, becoming the latest lawmaker or senior government official to succumb to the deadly respiratory illness in a country that is experiencing probably the most lethal outbreak in the world.

      In California, negotiations between the state and federal officials about where to dock the ‘Grand Princess’, the cruise ship stranded off the cost of San Francisco with at least 21 infected passengers and crew (mostly crew) on board. A state source close to the ongoing negotiations told the LA Times that talks would resume on Friday. The Princess Cruises ship remained at sea last night, but moved 20 nautical miles off the coast for easier delivery of supplies and other ‘logistical reasons’.

      Officials have scrambled to provide updates as quickly as possible, but passengers aboard the ship have taken to the Internet to share their experiences independently. Two women have been posting videos offering their takes on the news. They offered some interesting details about how officials put the pieces together to figure out that the cruise ship might be infected. Notice how the women are clearly ill, but claim to have been tested and come back negative for the virus.

      These two Youtubers shared a copy of the letter they received from the Captain, which was also shared by a Redditor posting in the r/Coronavirus subreddit.

      Here’s the letter:

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      Just like with the Diamond Princess, which reportedly led the staff to work in unbelievably brutal conditions, the staff aboard the Grand Princes, (so far, mostly staff have been infected) are being put in similarly undesirable conditions.


      Tyler Durden

      Sat, 03/07/2020 – 21:23

    • Forget Covid-19, San Diego Faces Critical Quake Danger From Long-Inactive Faultline
      Forget Covid-19, San Diego Faces Critical Quake Danger From Long-Inactive Faultline

      A 5.5 magnitude earthquake rocked Baja California, Mexico, on Friday night, and was felt as far as San Diego County. San Diegans have had a lot on their mind this past week, from the Covid-19 outbreak to now worrying about when the big earthquake will strike.

      For decades, conventional thinking has always been San Diego County has a lower probability of devastating earthquakes than Los Angeles or San Francisco areas.

      But a new report by the San Diego chapter of the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI), found a fault that runs through the heart of San Diego could be a much more serious problem than previously thought, reported Log Angeles Times.

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      EERI modeled for a 6.9 magnitude earthquake along the Rose Canyon Fault that runs directly through San Diego. What they noticed is that it would have devastating effects on local infrastructures, such as ruptured gas, water, electric, and fiber services between La Jolla and the Silver Strand, cause severe structural damage to tall buildings and lead to the destruction of major bridges across the county. 

      “We’re expecting a large fault rupture, almost six feet, a lot of liquefaction impacts, which basically is softening of the soil that causes a lot of impact to underground infrastructure like water distribution pipes,” said Heidi Tremayne, executive director of the EERI. “We’re worried that coastal communities could really be lacking some basic services for many months after an earthquake of this magnitude.”

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      With an 18% chance that Rose Canyon Fault could trigger a big quake in the next three decades, EERI said damage from it would cost upwards of $38 billion and account for $5.2 billion in lost income for local businesses. 

       

      “In the short term, I would consider getting a group of regional experts together and take a look at these recommendations and determine maybe a way ahead and mitigate some of these things so we’re better prepared if in fact we have an earthquake along this fault,” said Gary Johnston, the chief resilience officer for the San Diego County Office of Emergency Services.

      There’s without any doubt that California as a whole is long overdue for a destructive earthquake. We noted back in December that “very unusual seismic activity” was taking place off the West Coast.

      Seismologists warned about a year ago that California’s seismic activity is in an “earthquake drought.” With fears of large quakes could be nearing. 


      Tyler Durden

      Sat, 03/07/2020 – 20:40

    • Amtrak Suspends Some Non-Stop Acela Service Due To Virus  
      Amtrak Suspends Some Non-Stop Acela Service Due To Virus  

      As the Covid-19 outbreak across the US becomes more widespread, and the latest figures are now 308 confirmed cases and 17 deaths as of Friday night. Florida reported a death, making it the first on the East Coast, as millions of Americans are rushing to brick and mortar stores, panic buying food, water, hand sanitizer, and masks. 

      As we’ve seen in China and other hard-hit countries, there’s an easily identifiable blueprint of how the virus forces local economies to grind to a halt. It first starts with limited public gatherings, employees are forced to work at home, businesses close, then the transportation system shutters. 

      The first signs of economic paralysis developed on the East Coast last week, when major US banks started “virus contingency plan” for closing domestic offices should the virus worsen.

      By Friday evening, Amtrak published a statement that said it will suspend the Acela Nonstop service between Washington DC and New York because of reduced demand for travel amid the virus outbreak, reported The Washington Post.

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      Starting next Tuesday, the Acela Nonstop service (Trains 2401, 2402, 2403) will be suspended through May 26. 

      “We are closely monitoring the coronavirus and are taking action based on guidance from public health experts,” Amtrak said. 

      Amtrak cited reduced demand for train service as confirmed cases and deaths have been rising across the country. 

      “We understand you may have concerns, and as a valued customer, we will waive change fees on all existing or new reservations made before April 30, 2020,” Amtrak said. “We will continue to monitor the coronavirus situation closely and adjust this policy as necessary.”

      To sum up, Amtrak suspending some major lines to major banks preparing for the worse in the last week suggests economic paralysis could be developing in the “greatest economy ever” as the virus crisis continues to worsen. This could only mean one thing: a recession is nearing.


      Tyler Durden

      Sat, 03/07/2020 – 20:10

    • "It's Like Scenes From A Mad Max Movie" – Americans Continue Epic Run On Costco  
      “It’s Like Scenes From A Mad Max Movie” – Americans Continue Epic Run On Costco  

      As concerns of a Covid-19 outbreak increase across the US, Costco stores are experiencing the second weekend of panic-buying of food, water, and hand sanitizers. 

      Last weekend we noted how the “great panic of 2020 is underway” as Americans made a mad dash to Costco stores and other big-box retailers to hoard supplies. Costco CFO Richard Galanti told investors during an earnings call last week that buying panic has “been nuts” adding that  he attributes “this to concerns over the coronavirus.”

      Stock prices for Walmart and Target have also benefited from the spread of the deadly virus, as people preparing for a quarantine situation load up shopping carts with bottled water, canned soup, instant mac and cheese and everything else that they could possibly need to wait out the virus. But the panic-buying has been leading to shortages and leaving people on edge. –WaPo

      On the East Coast, tens of millions of Americans woke up on Saturday morning and heard the news about 44 total confirmed virus cases in New York, with a majority in Westchester, a suburb of NYC. PIX11 News’ Cristian Benavides tweeted a video of the panic that is developing in NYC this morning. He shows a long line of cars waiting to get into a Costco in Astoria, a neighborhood in Queens.

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      ABC13 Houston reported, “We’re seeing extremely long line at the Costco on Richmond this morning. Many people are trying to stock up on sanity items and water amid the coronavirus fears.” 

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      Stamford Plus magazine tweeted a picture of a Costco in Connecticut with “much bigger than usual” crowds. 

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      One Costco shopper was spotted in a hooded bio hazmat suit at an unidentifiable store.

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      One Twitter user said, “Costco employee just told everyone 2 toilet paper items each.”

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      LA Times’ Laura Blasey said the Costco in Arlington, Virginia, looked like “the set of the new Mad Max movie” as hand sanitizers, masks, and rubbing alcohol were all sold out. 

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      Panic buying was also spotted at Costco in Beacon Hill, Boston.

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      More purchase limits on certain products were seen.

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      A Costco in Los Angeles this morning saw long lines wrapping around the parking lot. 

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      “Costco is lit today” – more buying panic at another Costco tweeted one user. 

      Buying panic was also seen at a Costco in the UK.

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      Another Costco in Canada with long lines — and the store hasn’t even opened. 

      One Twitter user reported that a line spans “down one whole aisle and around to the next”  developed inside one Costco as people are waiting on today’s delivery of goods. 

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      The rising fears of a pandemic as confirmed virus cases and deaths soar will only force more and more Americans to big-box retailers to hoard food and water. This soon could result in a shortage of goods.  

      We warned you several years ago that Venezuela was coming to America. Little did we know it would be caused by a virus.

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        Tyler Durden

        Sat, 03/07/2020 – 20:01

      • Saudi Arabia Starts All-Out Oil War: MbS Destroys OPEC By Flooding Market, Slashing Oil Prices
        Saudi Arabia Starts All-Out Oil War: MbS Destroys OPEC By Flooding Market, Slashing Oil Prices

        With the commodity world still smarting from the Nov 2014 Saudi decision to (temporarily) break apart OPEC, and flood the market with oil in (failed) hopes of crushing US shale producers (who survived thanks to generous banks extending loan terms and even more generous buyers of junk bonds), which nonetheless resulted in a painful manufacturing recession as the price of Brent cratered as low as the mid-$20’s in late 2015/early 2016, on Saturday, Saudi Arabia launched its second scorched earth, or rather scorched oil campaign in 6 years. And this time there will be blood.

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        Following Friday’s shocking collapse of OPEC+, when Russia and Riyadh were unable to reach an agreement during the OPEC+ summit in Vienna which was seeking up to 1.5 million b/d in further oil production cuts, on Saturday Saudi Arabia kick started what Bloomberg called an all-out oil war, slashing official pricing for its crude and making the deepest cuts in at least 20 years on its main grades, in an effort to push as many barrels into the market as possible.

        In the first major marketing decision since the meeting, the Saudi state producer Aramco, which successfully IPOed just before the price of oil cratered…

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        … launched unprecedented discounts and cut its April pricing for crude sales to Asia by $4-$6 a barrel and to the U.S. by a whopping $7 a barrel in attempts to steal market share from 3rd party sources, according to a copy of the announcement seen by Bloomberg. In the most significant move, Aramco widened the discount for its flagship Arab Light crude to refiners in north-west Europe by a hefty $8 a barrel, offering it at $10.25 a barrel under the Brent benchmark. In contrast, Urals, the Russian flagship crude blend, trades at a discount of about $2 a barrel under Brent. Traders said the Saudi move was a direct attack at the ability of Russian companies to sell crude in Europe.

        Confirming the obvious, Iman Nasseri, managing director for the Middle East at oil consultant FGE said “Saudi Arabia is now really going into a full price war.”

        The draconian cuts in monthly pricing by state prouder Saudi Aramco are the first and clearest indication of how the Saudis will respond to the break up of the alliance between OPEC and Russia, which as we noted earlier, dumped MbS on Friday in a stunning reversal within OPEC+. Talks in Vienna ended in dramatic failure on Friday as Saudi Arabia’s gamble to get Russia to agree to a prolonged and deeper cut failed to pay off.

        And the second indication that the OPEC oil cartel is now effectively dead, came a few hours later when Bloomberg again reported that in addition to huge price cuts, Saudi Arabia was set to flood the market with a glut of oil to steal market share and capitalize on its just announced massive price cuts as the kingdom plans to increase oil output next month, going well above 10 million barrels a day.

        In addition to slashing prices,  Saudi Arabia has privately told some market participants it could raise production much higher if needed, even going to a record of 12 million barrels a day, according to Bloomberg sources.

        But before hitting a stunning 12mmb/d, Saudi production will first rise above 10 million barrels a day in April, from about 9.7 millions a day this month: “That’s the oil market equivalent of a declaration of war,” an unnamed commodities hedge fund manager said.

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        Meanwhile, as Bloomberg correctly notes, “with demand being ravaged by the coronavirus outbreak, opening the taps like that would throw oil market into chaos.”

        According to preliminary estimates, with Brent trading at $45, a flood of Saudi supply as demand is in freefall, could send oil into the $20s if not teens, in a shock move lower as speculators puke on long positions in what Goldman calls periodically a “negative convexity” event.

        Oil traders are looking to historical charts for an indication of how low prices could go. One potential target is $27.10 a barrel, reached in 2016 during the last price war. But some believe the market could go even lower.

        What is the logic behind the Saudi decision?

        According to one take, the shock-and-awe Saudi strategy could be an attempt to impose maximum pain in the quickest possible way to both Russia and other producers, most notably shale, in an effort to bring them back to the negotiating table, and then quickly reverse the production surge and start cutting output if a deal is achieved.

        While that’s certainly possible, it has already been tried once – back in 2014/2015 – and the result was humiliation for Riyadh as not only shale came out stronger, but Russia had no problems absorbing the lower prices. Instead, the most likely outcome is that Russia will be able to withstand a shock price far longer than Saudi Arabia, which has budgeted for a Brent price of $58/b for 2020 (which would lead to a 6.4% budget deficit). A realized price which is roughly half that – should the Saudi strategy work out as planned – would lead to social unrest and government turmoil in Saudi Arabia, and may explain why earlier today Saudi crown prince MbS launched another crackdown on dozens of royals and army officers following the arrest of powerful princes, who may compete for the throne once the public mood in Saudi Arabia turns nasty in the coming weeks.

        Incidentally, those wondering what is the worst case scenario for oil prices, consider that Brent traded at an all time low of $9.55 a barrel in December 1998, during one of the rare price wars that Saudi Arabia has launched over the last 40 years… similar to just now.

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        Could the price drop even lower now? Yes: back then there was no coronavirus pandemic destroying global oil demand.

        One final point: with 10Y Breakevens driven almost entirely by the price of oil…

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        … once Brent craters on Monday to the mid-$30s or lower, the accompanying implosion in 10Y yields could make the record plunge in yields seen on Friday a dress rehearsal for what could be the biggest VaR shock of all time. And since QE will only send yields even lower, perhaps it’s time for the Fed to add oil futures to stocks among the expanded securities it plans on purchasing as part of QE-5 to avert the next deflationary crisis which may have just started.


        Tyler Durden

        Sat, 03/07/2020 – 19:45

      • Bill Clinton Boffed Monica To 'Manage Anxieties' – So What Was Hillary Doing?
        Bill Clinton Boffed Monica To ‘Manage Anxieties’ – So What Was Hillary Doing?

        According to Bill Clinton, his affair with 22-year-old White House intern Monica Lewinsky helped him deal with the stress of being president, according to AFP.

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        Clinton made the admission in a four-part Hulu documentary released Friday about the scandal that resulted in his impeachment.

        In the four-part Hulu series, Clinton describes his sexual relationship in the 1990s with the then 22-year-old White House intern as something he did “to manage my anxieties for years.”

        He said it had been motivated by life’s “pressure and disappointments and terrors, fears of whatever” and said he felt “terrible” that the affair had defined Lewinsky’s life. –AFP  (via Yahoo)

        “We all bring our baggage to life and sometimes we do things we shouldn’t do,” Clinton said, adding “It was awful what I did.”

        Which begs the question; why wasn’t Hillary – who thought she was cut out to lead America, unable to ‘manage’ her own husband’s anxieties?

        Were Bill’s needs the rust-belt of their marriage – totally ignored by power-hungry Hillary? Or the Benghazi of their dead bedroom – totally abandoned when she was needed most? Or was it always just an ‘arrangement’ between two sociopaths bent on world domination, and Bill just got caught?

        Either way, that’s enough cursed images flashing through one’s brain for now.

        Hillary, meanwhile, said she felt “devastated and so personally hurt” when Bill told her about the affair.

        They both talk about how Hillary told him to inform their daughter Chelsea before the news became public.

        “So, I did that, which was awful,” said the ex-president. “What I did was wrong. I just hated to hurt her,” he added.

        Bill Clinton said nobody in his position would have thought about the risks they were taking by having the affair.

        “It is you feel like you are staggering around, you have been in a 15-round prize fight that was extended to 30 rounds and here is something that will take your mind off of it for a while. That is what happens,” he explained. –AFP 

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        Bill also reflected on how the affair affected Lewinsky, who kept a dress containing his semen, saying he thinks her life has been “unfairly” defined by the tryst.

        “Over the years I have watched her trying to get a normal life back again. But you got to decide how to define normal,” he said.


        Tyler Durden

        Sat, 03/07/2020 – 19:40

      • Fed Chair Powell Confirms Fed's Role As The Great Enabler
        Fed Chair Powell Confirms Fed’s Role As The Great Enabler

        Authored by Bruce Wilds via Advancing Time blog,

        As questions swirl about the Fed’s independence Fed Chair Powell has been busy trying to explain his reason for the  “emergency” 50bps rate cut.

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        At Best, The Fed Is Simply A Flawed Institution

        Regardless of what he says Fed Chair Powell has confirmed the Fed plans to continue its role as the great enabler. This means central banks across the globe can now lower their rates or do additional stimulus without damaging the delicate balance in the relationship in the value of one major currency to another. This is a delicate balance they have long held in check to stabilize the financial system and add credence to the myth no major currency can fail.

        Powell said,  “My colleagues and I took this action to help the U.S. economy keep strong in the face of new risks to the economic outlook.”

        Whether Powell succumbed to pressure from the highly critical words of the President for not acting immediately or fear the coronavirus would take a toll on the economy is not clear. As Powell tried to explain his actions, many of us who pay attention to such things cried “Bullshit.” Not only is a rate cut uncalled for at this time, but because it will also do little to strengthen the economy. What it will do is continue to prop up asset prices and encourage risk-taking and malinvestment. This is a big deal and may even result in more negative interest rates across the world which could create greater problems.

        In the Austrian business cycle theory, malinvestments are badly allocated business investments, due to the artificially low cost of credit and an unsustainable increase in the money supply. A strong case can be made that we already suffer from far to much leverage in our markets and this rate cut only encourages savers suffering from low-interest rates to take on more risk in search of higher yields. It has been pointed out on many occasions that low-interest rates do not extend down to low-income individuals with poor credit and many people fall into this category. Instead, over time these rates fuel inequality and punish the poor. Unfortunately, the concept that a rising tide floats all boats or trickle-down economics tends to heavily favor the rich.

        We see this in housing where few of the new apartment construction funds are generated locally and much of the building is no-longer based on real need but centered around the whims of huge real estate companies. This is part of the reason roughly 80% of new apartment construction is now for the high-end luxury market. Again the government and Wall Street money is driving this train. While retailers close and large buildings go empty across the land new buildings are being put up on speculation and bogus public-private partnerships are plowing vast sums of money into projects geared to compete with those that already exist. the fact is all across America the Fed is putting the small guy out of business.

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        Feds Low Rates Have Enabled This

        Of course, the elephant in the room is the stock market and not the economy. When people like Trump point to the market as proof that all is well they put stocks in front of the real indicator of our economic strength which is the middle and lower class. The disconnect between the working people and the financial community is apparent in the difficulty people with small businesses have getting loans or financing a project while big business is fed billions of dollars by the banks and Wall Street. If anyone is losing confidence in the system it is these people.

        As you witness wild market swings and gyrations now taking place, it is important to realize this is part of the process necessary to break the well-ingrained habit of “buy the dip.” This method of trading has worked since October 19th, 1987 when the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dropped 22.6 percent in a single trading session. That is the day the actions by Fed Chairman Greenspan galvanized the mantras “buy the dip” and “don’t fight the Fed.” Greenspan did this by affirming the Federal reserve would be there “to serve as a source of liquidity to support the economic and financial system.”

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        The trading patterns flowing from buying the dip have become ingrained and drive the algorithms embedded deep inside the computers that control much of the stock market’s direction. As noted at the beginning of this article, to the chagrin of those with a negative view of the Fed, Powell has confirmed the Fed plans to continue as the great enabler allowing central banks across the globe to lower their rates or do additional stimulus without weakening their currency compared to the dollar. I continue to contend this explains the recent weakness in the dollar and the strength in the yen as wealth continues to flow out of China.

        To be perfectly blunt, the rapid expansion of debt and credit during the last decade could have occurred without the Fed being complicit. When things move too far in one direction adjustments do occur. Do not be surprised if the dollar again jumps higher as the reality sets in that many countries will do far worse than America in the coming months. For now, we watch and wait while the market again tries to discover its true value both here in America and across the world.


        Tyler Durden

        Sat, 03/07/2020 – 18:40

      • "We Are In An Adverse Feedback Loop": How To Track The Coronavirus Hit To US Consumer Spending
        “We Are In An Adverse Feedback Loop”: How To Track The Coronavirus Hit To US Consumer Spending

        In our ongoing attempts to glean some objective insight into what is actually happening “on the ground” in the notoriously opaque China, whose economy has been hammered by the Coronavirus epidemic, in February we first showed several “alternative” economic indicators such as real-time measurements of air pollution (a proxy for industrial output), daily coal consumption (a proxy for electricity usage and manufacturing) and traffic congestion levels (a proxy for commerce and mobility), before concluding correctly that China’s economy appears to have ground to a halt – the subsequent record drop in China’s manufacturing and service PMI only confirmed this.

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        These observations were subsequently reaffirmed when we showed that steel demand, property sales, and passenger traffic had all failed to rebound from the “dead zone” hit during China’s Lunar New Year hibernation.

        And while the latest high-frequency Chinese data compiled by Goldman…

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        … and Capital Economics suggested there was a modest economic improvement in recent weeks…

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        … the latest reports that China is now openly manipulating even high-frequency data such as electricity usage to give the impression that life in China is back to normal (it isn’t), have made virtually all data out of China meaningless, as explained in:

        Yet even as China moved to openly fabricate all of its economic data, attention shifted away from China’s economy and to that of the US, which is now getting directly hammered as the coronavirus is now actively and aggressively spreading within US borders. As such, while most strategist have factored in a certain slowdown from the coronavirus in the US with the assumption that there will be a V or at least U-shaped recovery, many are starting to look increasingly at high frequency data in the US… just in case the local “recovery” is L-shaped, and leading to a recession, if not a depression.

        As a result, banks such as Goldman have now created some version of a “Coronavirus Consumer Activity Tracker”, which in Goldman’s case saggregates data such as movie ticket sales, hotel occupancy rates, and sporting event attendance, to determine if the US consumer – whose spending accounts for 70% of US GDP – is going into self-imposed spending quarantine. Separately, Goldman’s Coronavirus Consumer Price Tracker aggregates data on hotel prices, airfares, and theater ticket prices, which looks at any deflationary pricing impact from the coronavirus to reveal a decline in demand if companies are slashing prices to fill empty rooms or seats.

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        The good news? As Goldman’s Jan Hatzius writes, “our Coronavirus Consumer Activity and Price Trackers show no sign yet that virus fears have led to consumption cutbacks. Going forward, we will provide regular updates of these new indices to track the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the most vulnerable categories of spending.”

        The next chart illustrates some of the Goldman data. The left chart presents year-over-year changes in hotel occupancy rates and prices. The right chart presents the average attendance percentage and ticket price for Broadway shows.

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        The bank then aggregates the data into two indices that summarize overall signals for consumer activity and prices, the GS Coronavirus Consumer Activity Tracker and GS Coronavirus Consumer Price Tracker.

        The next chart presents Goldman’s Coronavirus Consumer Activity Tracker. Consumer activity in virus-exposed categories held steady during the last week of February, as declines in Broadway attendance, movie ticket sales, and available airline seat miles were offset by increases in hotel occupancy rates, retail sales, and college basketball attendance. “This suggests that, at least for now, consumers aren’t avoiding mass gatherings in response to the coronavirus news”, according to Goldman, although as we will show later, not all data agrees.

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        The next chart presents Goldman’s Coronavirus Consumer Price Tracker, which provides another measure of consumer demand. This index also remained roughly in line with its recent average last week, as small declines in airfares and Broadway ticket prices were offset by an increase in hotel rates.

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        The bottom line from GOldman: “While activity in some of these categories declined last week, our Coronavirus Consumer Activity and Price Trackers show no sign that virus fears led to consumer cutbacks through the end of February.”

        * * *

        Taking a step back, why do we care about US consumer spending in the context of the coronavirus? Recall that there are two distinct channels by which COVID-19 filters into the US:

        1. direct link through global supply chain disruptions; and
        2. indirect through a confidence shock.

        The former is already in play and is very likely to create challenges for multinational companies in the US into the summer. The latter is being threatened given the violent sell-off in markets and warning from the CDC about the inevitability of the disease showing up on our shores.

        It will take time for the “hard” economic data to show the impact but we are already seeing evidence in early economic indicators including:

        • corporate commentary about broken supply chains,
        • stalling in port activities,
        • deterioration in financial conditions,
        • freezing up in corporate debt issuance and behavioral shifts among consumers which we observe in our proprietary consumer data.

        Courtesy of Bank of America, we look at each of these in further detail below:

        The global supply chain was already under pressure as a result of the US-China trade war and the coronavirus adds additional strains. The tariffs created frictions by increasing the cost of production but the virus threatens to be a large supply shock by impairing the ability to produce. For example, take a US retailer who is importing textiles from China which will then be sent to a factory in Southeast Asia and then perhaps back to China to make the end product. If the retailer cannot receive the raw materials – which in this example is textiles – it shuts down the entire process. And this example is way too simple. The reality is that these are complex cross-national supply chains with large secondary impacts, and, as Goldman recently warned, “the supply chain effect is likely nonlinear with the length of the outbreak, as production is likely to remain largely unaffected until inventories run out, after which production may fall sharply.”

        Companies are already vocal about these challenges. According to Bank of America economists, over 180 companies have mentioned the virus on earnings calls, with those in the consumer discretionary sector being the most negative. Similarly, a FactSet search of 364 earnings calls from January 1 through February 13 found that 38% included the term “coronavirus” at least once with the industrial, IT and healthcare sectors accounting for the majority. And this is as of February 13th – consider how much worse it likely has become since then. We can get a sense from Google Trends: searches for “coronavirus” in the US fell in the early parts of February but have recently been climbing again as the virus spreads to other countries.

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        We can also look at activity at US ports. According to press reports, cargo traffic through Port of Los Angeles is down about 25% in February as China accounts for about half of LA port’s traffic. Port traffic had already been trending lower in ports across the west coast for much of last year owing in part to the trade war that led to a decline in trade between the US and China. As a result, BofA sees inventory shortages accelerating over the next few weeks given the 12 to 27 day sailing time between Asia and the US.

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        From a GDP perspective, the drag from broken supply chains will be evident in weaker business investment, mostly in inventory but also capex. Inventory levels ended last year low, which means the starting point is troublesome. We expect inventories to contract for the first 3 quarters of 2020- it is atypical to see such inventory reduction outside of recessions. The silver lining is that once we get to the other side and the recovery begins, there will be a need for restocking which will support growth.

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        Of course, if such relationships were linear this would more or less cover all the issue. However, since supply chains are non-linear and reflexive, they form adverse feedback, and as BofA warns “adverse feedback loops are dangerous.”

        Not only that, but as the bank’s economists warn, “we are starting to see evidence of an adverse feedback loop between markets and consumers; this frightens us.” Let’s review the signals:

        Market indications:

        • As of Friday, the S&P 500 sold off almost 14.0% from the recent high.
        • The 3mo-10yr yield curve is inverted by ~18bp, the most since October 2019 when trade war concerns were dominating the news flow
        • BofA’s global financial stress indicator triggered risk-off for the first time since August 5 – September 12 2019. While the indicator has been a good signal to buy the dip since 2013, the bank’s equity derivatives research team warns that this time may be different given the nature of this shock.
        • Freeze in the global credit machine. In the US, high yield bond issuance has slowed and there was no new US IG corporate issuance this week.

        Consumer signs:

        In the bank’s proprietary consumer survey, BofA has seen some pickup in those noting they are “very concerned” though it remains modest. And while broad consumer sentiment has been resilient, as Goldman’s data confirmed, this will change drastically in the coming weeks.

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        But most notably, and countering Goldman’s far more benign data, based on BofA’s internal credit and debit card data, behavior has started to shift. The first obvious change was in spending on Asian airlines, which has plunged. Subsequent data has revealed that spending on European airlines, cruise lines, and lodging has all crashed compared to 2019. What has remained resilient so far, is spending on health and personal care stores, as well as spending at grocery stores. If and when there is a decisive pullback across all spending categories, “we suggest you panic.”

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        The conclusion: so far US consumers haven’t showed broad-based fear. But as BofA reminds us, consumers are very sensitive to big market moves. Case in point: consumer confidence tumbled following the sell-off in December 2018. Similarly confidence weakened following the big market move in August 2019. In both cases spending plunged immediately thereafter. This is more than simply a negative “wealth effect”. Consumers see the stock market as a gauge of the health of the economy and the state of their personal finances; it is also an indicator of faith in the Fed which has single-handedly kept the stock market ramping for the past 11 years, avoiding both a bear market and a recession. Which is why when the stock market sells off violently, it sends an ominous message.

        We leave the last words to Bank of America: “We believe that we are in the very early stages of the adverse feedback loop. In our baseline forecast, we are assuming that it does not spiral. However, it remains a significant risk and we believe it is prudent to monitor it very closely.”


        Tyler Durden

        Sat, 03/07/2020 – 18:10

      • US Blocks UN Statement Backing Russia-Brokered Ceasefire In Syria
        US Blocks UN Statement Backing Russia-Brokered Ceasefire In Syria

        Authored by Jason Ditz via AntiWar.com,

        The ceasefire in Syria’s Idlib Province took effect on Friday, and has been holding so far. With every other nation on board, the US blocked a joint UN statement backing the ceasefire, saying it was “premature” to do so.

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        The ceasefire came into effect at midnight on Friday, via the AP.

        The ceasefire was brokered by Turkey and Russia, and that’s almost certainly the problem from the US perspective. The US broadly refuses to back any Syria agreements Russia is involved in.

        “It’s premature,” the United States said, rejecting the joint statement which Russia’s ambassador to the UN, Vassily Nebenzia, had asked the other 14 member states to adopt, according to diplomats.

        “Various countries took note and welcome the agreement,” said Nebenzia. “But due to a position from one delegation, it was not possible.” —AFP

        US officials had also been loudly backing Turkey’s military offensive in Idlib, and probably aren’t happy that Turkey has made a deal not to go to war.

        US officials weren’t super on board with directly participating in a Turkey-instigated war, but were only too happy to give lip-service to it. But AFP reports:

        According to diplomats, Moscow signaled that it could oppose endorsement of the US-Taliban peace deal in the Security Council following the US opposition to the Russia-Turkey ceasefire.

        Having the UN back a ceasefire, even if it is one not expected to necessarily survive, is usually the norm, though the US may find, in seeking backing for its Afghan deal, they may face similar resistance.


        Tyler Durden

        Sat, 03/07/2020 – 17:50

      • Police Quarantine California Neighborhood After Coronavirus Death
        Police Quarantine California Neighborhood After Coronavirus Death

        Police in the Sacramento suburb of Rocklin, California ordered residents on one residential street to stay inside their homes as officers in protective gear patrolled the area as a sheriff’s helicopter circled overhead, according to WIBW.

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        The reason? A man who became California’s first coronavirus victim lived on the block.

        Residents were kept in the dark until after they were allowed to leave their homes, according to the report.

        The Placer County Health Department issued a brief statement shortly after the police presence, stating: “Law enforcement partners are currently responding to enforce a health officer’s order. We cannot share any additional information to protect patient confidentiality.”

        The orders were given under sections of California Health and Safety Code that allows Placer Health to “enforce regulations requiring strict isolation, or quarantine if the action is necessary for the protection of the public health.” –WIBW

        The quarantine order came one day after Placer County Public Health announced the death of the 71-year-old resident.

        “I understand the sensitivity of the situation, but of course more information is always better,” said Justin Rodgers of Rocklin.

        The report notes that nobody from the Placer County Health Department was seen entering any homes, while the county is not commenting on whether law enforcement will be involved in the days ahead.


        Tyler Durden

        Sat, 03/07/2020 – 17:20

      • AOC Encourages Illegals To Participate In 2020 Census
        AOC Encourages Illegals To Participate In 2020 Census

        Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) says that “every single person, no matter your documentation status” should participate in the 2020 census, according to the Washington Examiner.

        “We’re all going to get mailed a prompt to fill out the census in the next two weeks or so,” she said during a Thursday interview on Late Night With Seth Meyers. “Every single person, no matter your documentation status, no matter your housing status, income, etc., is to be counted.”

        In 2019, Ocasio-Cortez condemned the idea of a citizenship question on the census, saying, “unspeakable horrors have been executed in the United States in the name of citizenship.”

        The census, which will begin on March 12, 2020, will be used to determine how government funds should be used to build a wide range of infrastructures such as schools, hospitals, homes, and supermarkets. A major debate around the census is related to how the numbers are used to alter congressional representation. Ten states are expected to either lose or gain congressional districts based on the results of the 2020 census. –Washington Examiner

        In 2018, President Trump took heat after his administration announced plans for a controversial citizenship question on the census, which hasn’t been included since 1950 according to the report. Federal Judge Jesse Furman, an Obama appointee, struck down the plan – writing that a citizenship test would be both “arbitrary and capricious.”

        Last year, Attorney General William Barr and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross were held in contempt by the House after they refused to respond to congressional subpoenas regarding the citizenship question.

        The Trump administration gave up on adding the citizenship question to the census in June, 2019 after the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 against the attempt.


        Tyler Durden

        Sat, 03/07/2020 – 16:50

      • MbS Widens Purge: Dozens Of Royals And Army Officers Swept Up After Powerful Princes Arrested
        MbS Widens Purge: Dozens Of Royals And Army Officers Swept Up After Powerful Princes Arrested

        Yesterday we predicted a return to MbS’ infamous Ritz-Carlton Riyadh shakedown of 2017 after a dramatic Friday morning raid on the homes of King Salman’s brother, Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz al Saud, and Prince Mohammed bin Nayef bin Abdulaziz al Saud.

        All eyes are on the spread of the deadly coronavirus, so what better time to initiate a broader crackdown (or at least dramatically restart the 2017-2018 purge), than when world leaders are distracted by making sure their societies survive a potential apocalyptic pandemic? 

        The pair, which happen to be the kingdom’s top most powerful royals aside from MbS, having both in the past been in charge of Saudi armed forces and intelligence in the post of Interior Minister, were arrested for allegedly plotting a coup to unseat the king and crown prince. Of course any level of evidence was not forthcoming. Treason could bring the death penalty.

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        Image via Eye On Riyadh 

        It appears the resumption of MbS’ purge of any power rivals or centers of influence is back on after a year-long lull following the Oct. 2018 murder and dismemberment of journalist Jamal Khashoggi is officially back on.

        The WSJ reports: “Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has embarked on a broad security crackdown by rounding up royal rivals, government officials and military officers in an effort to quash potential challenges to his power, Saudi royals and advisers familiar with the matter said Saturday.”

        This includes “dozens of Interior Ministry officials, senior army officers and others suspected of supporting a coup attempt…”.

        With Gov. Cuomo declaring New York in a ‘state of emergency’ Saturday after a new spike in Covid-19 cases, the crackdown in the Saudi kingdom has barely made a dent in terms of competing with the dozens of coronavirus headlines this weekend.

        And yet hundreds of princes and high Saudi officials are now experiencing chills of a very different sort: 

        The security sweep has sent a chill across the leadership of Saudi Arabia, where Prince Mohammed has spent three years consolidating power in anticipation of his expected ascension to the throne when 84-year-old King Salman dies, or if he decides to abdicate.

        MbS suddenly has an overwhelming outpouring of public “support” by nervous allies within the royal family, the WSJ reports further.

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        Remember this? 

        One Saudi government official told the Journal it’s still a mystery as to why black-clad and masked commandos showed up to haul bin Nayef and Prince Ahmed away early Friday morning.

        “The king was seen just a day earlier, so he is OK and none of us are aware of any plans of abdication,” the anonymous Saudi government adviser said. “The trigger for the arrests is still a mystery.”


        Tyler Durden

        Sat, 03/07/2020 – 16:40

      • "It's An Awful Situation": Washington Moves To Take Over Nursing Home At Epicenter Of Outbreak
        “It’s An Awful Situation”: Washington Moves To Take Over Nursing Home At Epicenter Of Outbreak

        Washington state officials are reportedly considering taking over a nursing home in Kirkland where at least 10 residents have died, possibly the first example in American history of a state agency nationalizing a nursing home.

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        The Life Care Center of Kirkland has become the center of a controversy as family members have complained to the press that they have been kept out of the loop when it comes to the care – and even at times, the location – of their loved ones who have either been infected, or possibly exposed and are in the process of being tested. At one point, a woman whose mother died of the facility of still-unknown causes (so possibly not virus-related) was told that her mother was alive and well after she had passed, WSJ reports.

        Pat Herrick, whose mother Elaine Herrick lived at the facility for seven years, said staff she has spoken with were juggling many tasks. After her mother died early Thursday morning, Ms. Herrick said she received a call later that day from a clinical representative referring to her mother as still alive. When Ms. Herrick corrected her “she was shocked,” Ms. Herrick said.

        She said Mr. Hunter called her that afternoon to apologize for the incident and the company put protocols in place to prevent any similar incidents. Ms. Herrick doesn’t know if her mother was infected with the new coronavirus and wants to have her body tested.

        It’s just the latest example, as the coronavirus spreads across the world, of how specialized health-care institutions like nursing homes or other assisted-living facilities are extremely unprepared for the outbreak.

        On Friday, the CDC said it was deploying a team of doctors and nurses to begin helping out the staff at the facility, some of whom have tested positive for the virus. Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, who declared a state of emergency a few days ago,

        The facility has been trying to get more protective gear, according to the head of a local health-care trade group. Washington Gov. Jay Inslee said Friday the state was seeking more gear from federal emergency stockpiles.

        According to WSJ, dozens of residents, staff and visitors had gathered inside the nursing home just a week ago for their Mardi Gras party.

        “We have questions and we demand answers. If anyone’s questions should be answered, it’s ours,” said Kevin Connolly, whose father-in-law is a resident at the nursing home just east of Seattle. “There’s a line and it starts behind us.”

        Families and government officials have blamed the Tennessee-based Life Care Centers of America, the owner of the nursing home in Washington, for failing to provide sufficient critical information about the status of patients to families. The company didn’t respond to WSJ‘s requests for comment.

        King County Executive Dow Constantine, the executive of the county with the largest number of cases in Washington State (many of which have been tied to the nursing home), has publicly expressed frustration with the company.

        “We’ve had some challenges with Life Care and I’m starting to lose my patience,” King County Executive Dow Constantine said at a news conference Friday.

        More than 100 residents were in the facility when the outbreak was first confirmed a week ago. By Friday, authorities said 69 residents were still inside and 15 residents had been transferred to local hospitals in the prior 24 hours. Life Care said in a statement Wednesday it didn’t know how the virus got into the 190-bed facility, and that it hadn’t been provided test kits.

        The company added that it has so far relied on information from federal and state officials on testing and the number of cases. To be fair, the CDC hasn’t exactly been super forthcoming.

        Springing into action, a scientist from nearby UW Medicine visited the nursing home on behalf of state officials and evaluated patients. Though in his report he said they appeared to be well-cared for, he noted the company had performed poorly when it came to communication.

        An emergency physician for UW Medicine, which includes a health system and the University of Washington School of Medicine, who visited the nursing home Thursday said the facility needed more health-care workers, and he recommended the state provide help.

        Stephen Morris, an assistant professor of public health and emergency medicine, said he evaluated 28 residents identified by public-health and nursing-home workers for possible transfer to local hospitals. He wasn’t able to see everyone, and the facility isn’t designed to effectively quarantine residents, he said. “It’s impossible in that environment.”

        Not all residents could speak, but one expressed frustration she couldn’t talk with family, Dr. Morris said. “It’s an awful situation,” he said of residents’ isolation from their families.

        Dr. Morris gave the county a report after leaving the home. The report described the facility as clean and well functioning, and patients Dr. Morris evaluated appeared to be well cared for, Ms. Hayes said Friday. The comments reflected his observations during a four-hour visit, Dr. Morris said.

        Regarding outreach, the company on Wednesday said each remaining resident had been assigned a clinical representative who will be in contact with family members daily.

        “Our clinical team is making personal, one-on-one telephone calls with family members to share information about loved ones and respond to questions,” company President Beecher Hunter said in a Thursday statement.

        Earlier this week, the company said it had assigned each patient an outreach liaison who would help with keeping families in the loop.

        Regarding outreach, the company on Wednesday said each remaining resident had been assigned a clinical representative who will be in contact with family members daily.

        “Our clinical team is making personal, one-on-one telephone calls with family members to share information about loved ones and respond to questions,” company President Beecher Hunter said in a Thursday statement.

        We suspect that by the time this outbreak is over, all of the nursing home companies in the US – notorious for being an industry that struggles with different levels of institutionalized shadiness, epitomized by the television show ‘Better Call Saul’- might struggle for years to rebuild public confidence.


        Tyler Durden

        Sat, 03/07/2020 – 16:20

      Digest powered by RSS Digest

      Mar 07

      Today’s News 7th March 2020

      • The Siege Of Waco & The Deep State
        The Siege Of Waco & The Deep State

        Authored by John Wilder via WilderWealthyWise.com,

        “There’s a reason you separate military and the police.  One fights the enemies of the state, the other serves and protects the people.  When the military becomes both, then the enemies of the state tend to become the people.”

        – Battlestar Galactica (New One)

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        Don’t worry, Leftists, all those people at Waco were here legally.

        The Waco Siege started 27 years ago.  It started as a raid by the ATF – Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms.  The ATF was formed after the Gun Control act of 1968.  In researching the ATF, I was amazed that its history consists of nothing more than an unending series of scandals and heartache visited upon (mainly) people with no criminal intent who had no idea that they were violating some extremely technical law.  And that’s on a good day.

        How bad is the ATF?  Here’s what a Senate subcommittee said:  “Based upon these hearings it is apparent that ATF enforcement tactics made possible by current federal firearms laws are constitutionally, legally, and practically reprehensible.”  From that, it actually got worse.

        The ATF was involved (besides Waco) in the Ruby Ridge disaster (which netted a body count that included a 14 year old boy and a mother holding a baby) as well as operation Fast and Furious where guns were intentionally illegally sold to Mexican drug criminals.  It’s okay selling guns to drug cartels because Fast and Furious was named after a Vin Diesel movie, and who doesn’t like him?

        It appears that most of the actually useful things that the ATF does revolve around databases that attempt to match weapons to crimes.  Keeping close to computer screens and away from actual A, T, and F might be a good idea, since they’ve lost (in just one audit) over 76 firearms, plus hundreds of laptops.  Oops.  Too much A?  And this is the group that reveres Elliot Ness and the famous Untouchables as their forefathers.

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        Looks like the Deputy Director really wanted to win the pie eating contest with the FBI, so they hired Karen.

        In an existence consisting of repugnant, objectionable, and odious events the Waco Siege is probably their crowning achievement.  Waco is certainly the worst single thing the ATF has ever done.  The fact that it’s not the only bad thing people talk about when they bring up the ATF tells you just how incompetent they are.

        What did the ATF do that was so bad at Waco?

        They launched a military-style raid against a church, the Branch Davidians, for no real discernible crime other than being a great target for a raid that could get publicity right before Congressional budgets were set.  Oh, and ATF agents knowingly lied in order to get military support, indicating that there were illegal drugs at the church when there was no evidence at all.  And this is just for starters.

        On the morning of the attack, the agents shot the dogs, then engaged in a firefight with the members of the church.  The ATF says they didn’t shoot first.  The surviving Branch Davidians say the ATF did shoot first.  Since the ATF was recording the raid for use in public relations, it seems odd that they don’t have footage of that.  Almost as if the tapes were . . . conveniently lost?  Nah.

        The ATF may be evil, but they make up for it partly by being incompetent.  After 45 minutes of exchanging gunfire with the Branch Davidians, the ATF asked for a do-over, since they had shot all of their ammunition.  The church allowed and honored a ceasefire when they could have easily killed every single ATF agent as they tried to withdraw.  But the folks in the church didn’t.  Once the threat of attack had passed, they let the agents leave in piece.  Did I mention that the Branch Davidians called 911 when they were first attacked?

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        ATF agents are notoriously bad at knock-knock jokes.

        The Waco Siege then spiraled into a circus.  The press, FBI, and the Texas National Guard all showed up.  When a group of moms and kids surrendered, the moms were immediately arrested and the kids placed in state custody, which made the remaining kids not want to leave.  Funny, that.  The FBI hostage negotiators sent in a camcorder so the Davidians could show they weren’t being coerced into staying.  The FBI refused to allow the tape to be given to the media.  Why?

        It might make people sympathetic to the Branch Davidians, which wouldn’t do because the FBI needed them to be the villain.

        During the standoff, the FBI continually ramped up the stress through lights at night, and horrible sounds during the day – which is probably a questionable strategy when dealing with an end-of-the-world cult.  The FBI then decided that broadcasting “This is not an assault” over a loudspeaker while using a tank to demolish the structure and pump in flammable tear gas.  If that’s not an assault, I’m not sure what is, especially since there are infrared recordings that may show muzzle flashes on the morning of the attack – muzzle flashes of people outside shooting into the compound.   Apparently, this sort of behavior isn’t an assault – it’s just the non-threatening way that FBI agents normally great each other.

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        I will warn you, the FBI can leave a mess.

        Malcolm Gladwell tallied the forces in his article for the New Yorker: 

        “Outside the Mount Carmel complex, the FBI assembled what has been called probably the largest military force ever gathered against a civilian suspect in American history:  10 Bradley tanks, two Abrams tanks, four combat-engineering vehicles, 668 agents in addition to six U.S. Customs officers, 15 U.S. Army personnel, 13 members of the Texas National Guard, 31 Texas Rangers, 131 officers from the Texas Department of Public Safety, 17 from the McLennan County sheriff’s office, and 18 Waco police, for a total of 899 people.” 

        Those were just the ground forces – there were helicopters and other flying surveillance, too.

        The Siege ended in tragedy after the tanks went in – a total of 76 dead in that final “not an assault.”  The church members perished horribly in a fire that may or may not have been started by the government.

        I don’t want to give the impression that the leader of the Branch Davidians, David Koresh, was a hero.  He clearly wasn’t.  Outside of his taking wives that were very young (though still within Texas marriage age at the time, per the Sheriff), Koresh had the opportunity to end the standoff without tragedy.  That still doesn’t absolve the government, because if Koresh felt he wouldn’t get a fair deal, it looks like he was right.

        Almost immediately after the first catastrophic attack by the ATF, the involved agents started writing reports on what happened.  And were stopped even though writing reports doesn’t allow them to use what is apparently their only skill – bungling operations and getting people killed.  Someone from Washington, D.C. noticed that the agents were writing things that could be used by the Davidians to prove themselves innocent, which must violate some sort of ATF policy.

        Thankfully, the evidence remaining from the fire was at least carefully cataloged so Americans could have faith that the justice system would produce a fair result?  No.  The entire site was bulldozed within two weeks after the fire, destroying valuable evidence.

        Evidence?  Why would you need that?

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        His courthouse is in the basement of the Alamo.

        I mentioned that I was going to write about Waco to The Mrs.  We discussed it for a while, but she opened with, “Well, I guess that’s another list you’ll be on.”

        We continued to talk about it.  Her position was that Waco started the Right/Left split in the country.  From one standpoint, she was correct.  If you look at the Pew® data from back in 1994 (LINK), we weren’t that split as a country, but by 2017 the split was in force.  Waco happened right at the front of the polarization of American politics.

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        I blame the vegans, ruining Thanksgiving with their stupid tofu turkey.

        The Mrs. and I continued discussing the Waco Siege.  We both agreed that Waco was also the most blatant display of the Deep State back before the year 2000, and she felt it was the blow that really split the country.  How so?

        • The search warrant for the raid was based on multiple lies.

        • The Branch Davidians had phone lines cut with the outside world so they couldn’t plead their case except through the FBI.

        • Evidence was “lost” including physical evidence as well as video evidence.

        • Agents writing routine reports after the failed first raid were stopped from creating reports because their stories didn’t match and the government didn’t want to provide evidence that the Branch Davidians could use to be found innocent. Innocence is for government agents, silly.

        • Stories of agents never actually matched with each other, being inconsistent as late as 6 years after the raid.

        • Physical evidence (as was available) contradicted agent testimony or suggested agents may have lied.

        • In the end, every charge that could be brought against the survivors was brought, but there were no charges brought against a single Federal agent. Perhaps 9 (from the data I could find) ATF personnel either retired early (presumably with full benefits and honors) or were “under scrutiny” which probably means that they wouldn’t get promoted again for a year or two.

        • There were lasting career consequences, though: one FBI leader was demoted from a very high position, and the rest of his life was horrible.  Just kidding.  He moved from one high paying executive job in the private sector to another.

        • Leftist Senators (most prominently Charles Schumer) bent over backwards to justify what the ATF did during the Senate hearings on the Siege. I can say this with confidence:  Chuck Schumer is the ATF of the Senate.

        The parallels to the Deep State today are similar:

        • Hillary Clinton can intentionally violate the law related to storage of classified information. No charge.

        • The FISA affidavit that started the Mueller investigation could be based on . . . lies. No charge.

        • Andrew McCabe could lie to Congress. No charge.

        • John Brennan could lie to Congress. No investigation.

        • Roger Stone could lie to Congress. No investigation.  Just kidding.  Hammered as if by the fist of an angry god, and convicted of a crime.

        • General Flynn made non-consequential misstatements of fact when he was in a “friendly chat” with FBI agents. No charge.  Just kidding.  Hounded like he had stolen Satan’s bra and convicted of a crime.

        Certainly I could come up with more examples.  But the point is clear – the Deep State protects itself first.  Members can commit murder, and there will be no charges.  Members can lie to cover each other and be immune.  Members can destroy evidence without consequence.  Members can get in the 10 item only line with 12 items.  No consequences.

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        When I think about why the Deep State would go so far to protect its own, my first question is, why?  You see this as a regular fixture with almost any member.  Some of those being protected aren’t important.  The on-scene director at Waco – why protect him?

        The answer is fairly simple:  these people know things.  They know of the activities that the Deep State wants to hide.  They’re the ones who know the real secrets, both on you and me but more importantly on each other.

        Why could Waco not be ended peacefully?  Because it would give Koresh a victory.  And a victory, no matter how small would, they felt, make them less powerful, less respected.  There is a reason that the ATF and FBI posed in pictures on the still-smoldering remains of the Branch Davidian compound.  There is a reason that after the fire took down the Branch Davidian flag, the ATF raised an ATF flag at Waco.

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        Nothing says reasonable like a selfie on top of ashes!

        That reason is the Deep State’s deepest desire.  What does the Deep State want?

        Power, both personal power, and power to the organizations they serve.  Make no mistake, the Deep State is partisan, and loves all of those who like state control.  Why else would they militarize a Federal Bureau that was less effective than Soviet situation comedy writers?  You could look into the sneering, mocking weasel face of Peter Strzok while he was giving testimony to Congress and see it in his eyes.  Contempt.  Contempt for those that weren’t of his Deep State pedigree, and a smugness borne of the thought that there was nothing that could ever be done to him.

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        Would you trust this man with your secrets?

        He had become like the hero of the ATF, Elliot Ness.

        He was Untouchable.


        Tyler Durden

        Fri, 03/06/2020 – 23:45

      • Surprise! China Is Using Covid-19 To Strengthen Its Mass Surveillance Of Citizens
        Surprise! China Is Using Covid-19 To Strengthen Its Mass Surveillance Of Citizens

        As a result of monitoring for coronavirus, the Chinese government is now requiring Chinese citizens to provide personal data, including travel and health conditions, via apps on their smartphone to the government. 

        Based on the answers that citizens give to the apps, provided by Alibaba and Tencent, algorithms will try to decide whether or not the person is likely to have coronavirus. The apps then assign a red, yellow or green code to the person, depending on their risk of having the virus, according to Nikkei. If you get a red code, you have to self-quarantine or be quarantined in a facility for 14 days. 

        And citizens can’t lie, because all of the answers they provide about things like hotel stays and travel are cross checked with the government’s data and smartphone location data. 

        Several provinces also have “social credit” systems where people who lie (as well as smoke, jaywalk, etc.) wind up with lower “social credit scores”. More provinces are expected to implement similar systems soon.

        It all rounds out a picture of Beijing increasing its mass surveillance over its citizens. The surveillance can be effective, as China has (supposedly) shown during this outbreak. But people must also consider how the surveillance can also be weaponized to combat mass protests and individual pursuits of justice, the Nikkei op-ed reminds us. 

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        The technology-based anti-outbreak measures are certainly needed now, however. They have allowed over 10 million people in Hangzhou to assess their risk of the coronavirus. The technology being used is in over 200 cities. In Shanghai, for instance, an app is monitoring 245,000 street-front shops with data, which eliminates the need for staff to visit them. 

        The technology will help in indicating when the outbreak slows, for certain. But there is little transparency on how Beijing collecst the data and what happens to it. One low level official in Jiaxing city said: “Through data analysis, we have mastered the trajectory of everyone’s whereabouts. If you have not reported truthfully, our system will find out.”

        The network of surveillance in China – not just related to coronavirus – but also with requirements like needing a state ID to register mobile phones and internet services – has been built gradually. With coronavirus surveillance, its grip on the country’s citizens gets even tighter. 

        Health data that the country may not have had on its citizens is certain to start populating on government servers. In Hangzhou, for instance, “the government has upgraded the health code to link it to a person’s digital health card, similar to a digital medical record, and social security card, allowing one to make doctor’s appointments, purchase medicine and make payments.”

        While now the cause seems somewhat noble and humanitarian, the op-ed concludes with a salient point: once the digital surveillance network in China is fully in place, it simply can’t be un-done.


        Tyler Durden

        Fri, 03/06/2020 – 23:25

      • Seth Rich, Julian Assange, & Dana Rohrabacher – Will We Ever Know The Truth About The Stolen DNC Files?
        Seth Rich, Julian Assange, & Dana Rohrabacher – Will We Ever Know The Truth About The Stolen DNC Files?

        Authored by Philip Giraldi via The American Herald Tribune,

        The media is doing its best to make the Seth Rich story go away, but it seems to have a life of its own, possibly due to the fact that the accepted narrative about how Rich died makes no sense.

        In its latest manifestation, it provides an alternative explanation for just how the information from the Democratic National Committee (DNC) computer somehow made its way to Wikileaks. If you believe that Jeffrey Epstein committed suicide and that he was just a nasty pedophile rather than an Israeli intelligence agent, read no farther because you will not be interested in Rich. But if you appreciate that it was unlikely that the Russians were behind the stealing of the DNC information you will begin to understand that other interested players must have been at work.

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        For those who are not familiar with it, the backstory to the murder of apparently disgruntled Democratic National Committee staffer Seth Rich, who some days before may have been the leaker of that organization’s confidential emails to Wikileaks, suggests that a possibly motiveless crime might have been anything but.

        The Washington D.C. police investigated what they believed to be an attempted robbery gone bad but that theory fails to explain why Rich’s money, credit cards, cell phone and watch were not taken. Wikileaks has never confirmed that Rich was their source in the theft of the proprietary emails that had hitherto been blamed on Russia but it subsequently offered a $20,000 reward for information leading to resolution of the case and Julian Assange, perhaps tellingly, has never publicly clarified whether Rich was or was not one of his contacts, though there is at least one report that he confirmed the relationship during a private meeting.

        Answers to the question who exactly stole the files from the DNC server and the emails from John Podesta have led to what has been called Russiagate, a tale that has been embroidered upon and which continues to resonate in American politics. At this point, all that is clearly known is that in the Summer of 2016 files and emails pertaining to the election were copied and then made their way to WikiLeaks, which published some of them at a time that was damaging to the Clinton campaign.

        Those who are blaming Russia believe that there was a hack of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) server and also of John Podesta’s emails that was carried out by a Russian surrogate or directly by Moscow’s military intelligence arm.

        They base their conclusion on a statement issued by the Department of Homeland Security on October 7, 2016, and on a longer assessment prepared by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence on January 6, 2017. Both government appraisals implied that there was a U.S. government intelligence agency consensus that there was a Russian hack, though they provided little in the way of actual evidence that that was the case and, in particular, failed to demonstrate how the information was obtained and what the chain of custody was as it moved from that point to the office of WikiLeaks. The January report was particularly criticized as unconvincing, rightly so, because the most important one of its three key contributors, the National Security Agency, had only moderate confidence in its conclusions, suggesting that whatever evidence existed was far from solid.

        An alternative view that has been circulating for several years suggests that it was not a hack at all, that it was a deliberate whistleblower-style leak of information carried out by an as yet unknown party, possibly Rich, that may have been provided to WikiLeaks for possible political reasons, i.e. to express disgust with the DNC manipulation of the nominating process to damage Bernie Sanders and favor Hillary Clinton.

        There are, of course, still other equally non-mainstream explanations for how the bundle of information got from point A to point B, including that the intrusion into the DNC server was carried out by the CIA which then made it look like it had been the Russians as perpetrators. And then there is the hybrid point of view, which is essentially that the Russians or a surrogate did indeed intrude into the DNC computers but it was all part of normal intelligence agency probing and did not lead to anything. Meanwhile and independently, someone else who had access to the server was downloading the information, which in some fashion made its way from there to WikiLeaks.

        Both the hack vs. leak viewpoints have marshaled considerable technical analysis in the media to bolster their arguments, but the analysis suffers from the decidedly strange fact that the FBI never even examined the DNC servers that may have been involved. The hack school of thought has stressed that Russia had both the ability and motive to interfere in the election by exposing the stolen material while the leakers have recently asserted that the sheer volume of material downloaded indicates that something like a higher speed thumb drive was used, meaning that it had to be done by someone with actual physical direct access to the DNC system. Someone like Seth Rich.

        What the many commentators on the DNC server issue choose to conclude is frequently shaped by their own broader political views, producing a result that favors one approach over another depending on how one feels about Trump or Clinton. Or the Russians. Perhaps it would be clarifying to regard the information obtained and transferred as a theft rather than either a hack or a leak since the two expressions have taken on a political meaning of their own in the Russiagate context. With all the posturing going on, the bottom line is that the American people and government have no idea who actually stole the material in question, though the Obama Administration was extraordinarily careless in its investigation and Russian President Vladimir Putin has generally speaking been blamed for what took place.

        The issue currently bouncing around the media concerns an offer allegedly made in 2017 by former Republican Congressman Dana Rohrabacher to imprisoned WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange. According to Assange’s lawyers, Rohrabacher offered a pardon from President Trump if Assange were to provide information that would attribute the theft or hack of the Democratic National Committee emails to someone other than the Russians. He was presumably referring to Seth Rich.

        Assange did not accept the offer, but it should be noted that he has repeatedly stated in any event that he did not obtain the material from a Russian or Russian-linked source. In reality, he might not know the original source of the information. Since Rohrabacher’s original statement, both he and Trump have denied any suggestion that there was a firm offer with a quid pro quo for Assange. Trump claims to hardly know Rohrabacher and also asserts that he has never had a one-on-one meeting with him.

        The U.S. media’s coverage of the story has emphasized that Assange’s cooperation would have helped to absolve Russia from the charge of having interfered decisively in the U.S. election, but the possible motive for doing so remains unclear. Russian-American relations are at their lowest point since the Cold War and that has largely been due to policies embraced by Donald Trump, to include the cancellation of START and medium range missile agreements. Trump has also approved NATO military maneuvers and exercises right up to the Russian border and has provided lethal weapons to Ukraine, something that his predecessor Barack Obama balked at. He has also openly confronted the Russians in Syria.

        Given all of that back story, it would be odd to find Trump making an offer that focuses only on one issue and does not actually refute the broader claims of Russian interference, which are based on a number of pieces of admittedly often dubious evidence, not just the Clinton and Podesta emails. Which brings the tale back to Seth Rich. If Rich was indeed responsible for the theft of the information and was possibly killed for his treachery, it most materially impacts on the Democratic Party as it reminds everyone of what the Clintons and their allies are capable of. It will also serve as a warning of what might be coming at the Democratic National Convention in Milwaukee in July as the party establishment uses fair means or foul to stop Bernie Sanders.

        How this will all play out is anyone’s guess, but many of those who pause to observe the process will be thinking of Seth Rich.


        Tyler Durden

        Fri, 03/06/2020 – 23:05

      • "Bull Market Has Reversed" – NYC Multifamily Building Sales Plunge
        “Bull Market Has Reversed” – NYC Multifamily Building Sales Plunge

        A new report from PropertyShark, a real estate data provider, said the New York City multifamily market shifted from “bull to bear in 2019.” 

        PropertyShark said multifamily sales in Manhattan, Brooklyn, the Bronx, and Queens significantly cooled in 2019, and sales plunged from 1,225 in 2018 to 828 in 2019, a 32% drop. Total deal flow volume in terms of dollar amount fell 41%, from $11.6 billion to $6.8 billion over the period. 

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        Summarizing New York City’s 2019 downtrend in the multifamily market is Greg Corbin, executive managing director at Besen Associates, said: “The slowdown in investment sales transactions has been a product of the perfect storm: rising interest rates, concern about new rent regulation laws and fear that the near decade-long bull market has reversed.”

        A tailwind for the New York City multifamily market in 2020 could be record-low mortgage rates, but what could push the market lower is an outbreak of Covid-19. As of Friday, 22 confirmed cases were seen, with about 2,800 people under observation. A virus outbreak would cause spending patterns to shift among investors/consumers, sending the local economy into a tailspin. 


        Tyler Durden

        Fri, 03/06/2020 – 22:45

      • Media Vilifies Preppers And Those Stocking Up As "Selfish Hoarders" As Potential Mass Quarantine Looms
        Media Vilifies Preppers And Those Stocking Up As “Selfish Hoarders” As Potential Mass Quarantine Looms

        Authored by Daisy Luther via The Organic Prepper blog,

        With the Covid19 virus popping up across the country, people who are preppers are adding a few last-minute things to their stockpiles. Those who aren’t preppers are starting from scratch to get what they think they might need to handle a potential quarantine at home.

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        While most of the folks on this website would read this and think, “Of course they are” there are a few who think, “What a bunch of selfish people, hoarding supplies instead of only taking a little and leaving the rest for other people.”  Often the people with this mindset are those “other people” who failed to prepare and who are upset that they missed their window of opportunity to get the necessary supplies.

        But the media and government certainly aren’t helping paint those getting prepared in a good light with headlines about “panic buying” and “hoarding.”

        An article on USA Today starts out:

        Keep calm and stop hoarding. The spread of coronavirus in the U.S. won’t wipe out our toilet paper supply. Or supplies of hand sanitizer, bottled water and ramen.

        That is, unless the frenzied stampedes for hand sanitizer and bottled water continue at their current pace. (source)

        The article goes on to use phrases like “impulsive buying binges,” “air of aggressive competition,” “stripping store shelves of toilet paper,” and “the crush of humanity” at Costco.

        The entire article dismisses stocking up as ridiculous and even irresponsible, blaming shoppers for causing shortages.

        Experts say not to worry and to stop “hoarding.”

        The USA Today article blithely reports:

        Supply chain experts say to stop worrying about hoarding basic necessities beyond having on hand the recommended 14-day emergency supply of food and necessities.

        Perishable food such as fruits and vegetables are unlikely to be limited in the short term. Supplies of imported frozen meat and fish are more at risk but were already curbed by trade sanctions.

        Packaged goods such as cereal and toothpaste and dry goods won’t be affected in the near term, either. For items that are now in shorter supply, such as hand sanitizer, plenty of substitutes exist such as soap. Some people are even making their own…

        …Even with images of all those empty shelves flooding social media feeds, supply chain experts urged people to stop, well, freaking out.

        “We don’t have a shortage of toilet paper in this country. We have plenty of toilet paper to go around,” said Per Hong, a senior partner in the strategic operations practice at Kearney, a global management consultancy. “Those supplies will be fully restocked and my ability to go to the store to get those supplies isn’t going to go away anytime soon.” (source)

        I don’t know about you, but I certainly wouldn’t feel comfortable facing a possible lockdown like the one in China with only a 14 day supply of food and necessities. And if what’s happened in Italy is anything to go by, your ability to pop out to the store to get more toilet paper absolutely could go away sometime soon.

        An article on Los Angeles News Today continues in the same vein with its own experts chiming in.

        Los Angeles County health director Dr. Barbara Ferrer said residents should be prepared just as they should always be for a natural disaster or other emergency.

        “That means having some water in your house and some food and your medications that last for a few days,” Ferrer said. “You don’t need to rush out and buy out weeks and weeks worth of supplies, but you (do) need to have what we always ask you to have — enough supplies in your house to get through a few days.” (source)

        So according to them, you only need to be prepared for a few days. No biggie.

        Stocking up is occurring around the world.

        Wise people around the world are gathering up supplies. According to the Nielsen consumer market research agency, the spread of the coronavirus has folks everywhere “actively stockpiling emergency supplies.”

        “They’re also starting to think beyond emergency items, such as basic foodstuffs, including canned goods, flour, sugar and bottled water,” according to Nielsen. “Concerns are having a ripple effect into non-food essentials as well. In the U.S., sales of supplements, fruit snacks and first aid kits, for example, are all on the rise.”

        The agency noted “significant spikes” in hoarding of emergency supplies in China, the United States and Italy, “where consumers are rushing to build what are being labeled ‘pandemic pantries.”(source)

        Of course, what they call hoarding, I’d call preparing for the worst.

        Did you notice a word being repeatedly used?

        The word “hoarding” is being repeatedly used throughout news reports. They’re already working to paint preppers as bad and selfish people. They’re already vilifying those who hurry out to fill any gaps in their supplies. They’re making it seem like a mental illness to get prepared for what could potentially be a long stretch of time at home with only the supplies you have on hand.

        This is a frequent trick of propagandists everywhere. Repeat a word often enough and suddenly everyone begins using it. Everyone begins to believe that the people labeled with an ugly word are terrible, selfish, and threats to decency.

        A friend of mine wrote about an article she had read:

        There’s a single quote that sticks out to me:

        “The government ended up subsidizing masks so that every family could have them after people decided to hoard them like they were bottled water in a storm.”

        Do you see what happened there? Those who prepared ahead of time are being vilified. This theme is being repeated over and over again if you start reading what the experts are writing. History tells us that those who are prepared are either hailed the heroes (when they have enough for everyone) or the villains (when they have enough for themselves).

        This is a recurring theme. Those who prepare are demonized while those who do not are portrayed as victims of the “hoarders.”

        Keep listening because you’re going to hear words like “hoarding” and “selfish” a lot more often as this situation continues to evolve.

        State governments and the CDC are at odds

        State health officials in places like Hawaii and Minnesota have recommended that residents get prepared for what could be a bumpy ride. Residents of those states are paying attention and stocking up.

        The CDC (irresponsibly) couldn’t disagree more. (You know, the same CDC that’s been sending out a faulty Covid19 test all this time.) They are literally telling people not to stock up.

        CDC Director Robert Redfield on Thursday told a U.S. congressional hearing that there was no need for healthy Americans to stock up on any supplies.

        “We should have one unified message,” said Robyn Gershon, a clinical professor of epidemiology at New York University. “When there’s an absence of a good, strong and reassuring official voice, people will get more upset and start doing this magical thinking.” (source)

        There, there. Don’t worry. The government will save you. Go order a pizza and don’t worry your silly little head about some virus.

        Many see preparation as selfishness.

        I’ve gotten comments on my own website and also in the group that I run on Facebook that preparedness is a “selfish” endeavor. And it’s always in the comments that you find out how people really feel, often using MSM talking points as their guides.

        There was this rather naive comment on a mainstream article.

        The thing I have with INDIVIDUAL preppers is that why not leave it in the store? Why don’t people see the grocery store as a prepper’s storage unit?

        Prepping is inherently selfish IMO. (source)

        Someone who is no longer in my Facebook group told us.

        You people are part of the problem. You go out and hoard things when it wouldn’t hurt you to leave some stuff on the shelf for other people. If there aren’t enough supplies for everyone, it is selfish for you to only think of your family. What about everyone else’s family? Oh right, you only care about yourself.

        A commenter on my own website said:

        What a bunch of selfish jerks you all are. You don’t need 10 packages of toilet paper at a time. What about the other people who can’t afford ten packs of toilet paper?

        The author of an article about being in quarantine finds those stocking up to be selfish too, which is kind of mind-boggling when you not this author is in the position in which we all worry about finding ourselves.

         I was sorely disappointed by the amount of items that were out of stock after Singaporeans rushed to buy a whole plethora of goods (including instant noodles and toilet paper) when DORSCON Orange happened.

        Given such uncertain times, I can empathise with the panic. But I couldn’t help but feel that this hoarding mentality is really selfish.

        Because this means that a good portion of people–those on their weekly grocery runs or others like myself looking to get groceries delivered as I am unable to leave the house–cannot get their hands on essentials. (source)

        Watch closely. You will see the word “selfish” getting thrown around right up there with “hoarding.”

        These people are wrong.

        Currently, thousands of people in the United States are spending weeks at home under self-quarantine. I’ll bet if you asked them, there are probably all sorts of things they wish they had on hand right now, and this is even with the ability to order things that can be delivered to their doorsteps. What would happen if all of us within a region faced the type of lockdown happening in northern Italy where there are potential criminal penalties for being out unnecessarily? Wouldn’t you then wish you had made that last-minute run to the store?

        Stocking up is the responsible thing to do. It means that your family will not be dependent on government services. It means that nobody has to run out in the middle of a pandemic because there’s not any Tylenol and somebody has a fever. It means you don’t have to risk infection in order to have food for your children.

        Stocking up to care for yourself means that you won’t be a drain on those limited government resources being dispensed and there will be more for people who did not prepare. It means you don’t need to order deliveries, causing some other person to risk their own health bringing supplies to you after things get bad.

        Stocking up is practical. Whether you’ve done it over a period of years, as most of us have, or whether you’re topping up now (which I’m doing since I’ve been traveling for quite some time and I want to make sure my daughter’s place is well-supplied), taking the steps you need to be prepared is the height of personal responsibility.

        There’s one really good mainstream article on Scientific American that talks about the wisdom of stocking up. Aside from that, the mainstream is studded with the usual mockery toward the self-reliant.

        Panic buying vs. Prepping

        Some folks have noted that what is going on right now as shelves get emptied across the country is not prepping – it’s panic buying. While there’s a little bit of truth to that, I’d still rather see people in the stores getting what they need than waiting for a handout.

        Over the past couple of weeks, I’ve hit the stores myself to replenish a stockpile that my youngest daughter has been using. I’m certainly not panicking but I’d be a fool not to fill in some gaps.

        Whether you’ve had your supplies sitting there for a year or you just picked them up over the previous week, I commend you for making the effort to get prepared for what could possibly be a lengthy period of quarantine.

        Is it better to do this far in advance? Sure. Is it better to do this at the last minute than not at all? Also, sure. For those who have waited longer than might be ideal, check out this guide for panic preppers and this guide that offers substitutes when the merchandise at the store is picked over.

        The media will try to make us look bad…again.

        Regardless of how the Covid-19 outbreak plays out in the United States, rest assured that those who prepared will be painted with a dark brush by the media. This is one of those situations in which OpSec is of primary importance. You don’t want your unprepared neighbor to know you’re doing just fine with your canned goods and dried fruit after they failed to go to the store.

        Our first responsibility is always, without fail, to our own families.

        Don’t let the mainstream media try and tell you otherwise.


        Tyler Durden

        Fri, 03/06/2020 – 22:25

      • "It's Utter Mayhem" – US Mortgage Rates Plunge To Record Low
        “It’s Utter Mayhem” – US Mortgage Rates Plunge To Record Low

        Rates for 30-year US mortgages plunged to a record low on Thursday, forced lower by Covid-19 fears as the US economy could be nearing recession as investors continued to make a mad dash into treasuries. 

        The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 3.29%, down from 3.45% last week and the lowest in nearly five decades, Freddie Mac said in a statement Thursday. The last time rates were this low, it was November 2012 at 3.31%. 

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        A quick drop in mortgage rates could boost home sales, but a fast-spreading virus that is starting to take a toll on West Coast cities could prove otherwise. From business shutdowns to quarantines to a collapse in air travel, the economy is rapidly slowing as people load up on food and masks to weather a possible pandemic. 

        Matthew Pointon, a US property economist at Capital Economics Ltd., told Bloomberg that mortgage rates would probably extend declines before hitting a floor. 

        We noted on Wednesday that plunging rates has led to a massive refinance boom. 

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        Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s senior vice president and chief economist, said:

         “The 30-year fixed rate mortgage dropped to its lowest level in more than seven years last week, amidst increasing concerns regarding the economic impact from the spread of the coronavirus, as well as the tremendous financial market volatility. Given the further drop in Treasury rates this week, we expect refinance activity will increase even more until fears subside and rates stabilize.” 

        Quicken Loans said they saw “record-setting” volume on Monday and Tuesday as rates fell. CEO Jay Farner said:

         “The way that we leverage technology to communicate with our clients, to make it easy for them to make a mortgage application, for our underwriters, we can scale very quickly, which helps us when we see increased volume like this.”

        Lewis Sogge, a senior loan officer at Freedom Mortgage, said the decline in rates is fueling an epic refinancing boom. Sogge said, “mortgage rates are lower than I thought we’d ever seen. Everyone is working overtime to handle the new loan supply. Its utter mayhem.” 


        Tyler Durden

        Fri, 03/06/2020 – 22:05

      • The Potential Economic And Societal Impacts Of Covid-19
        The Potential Economic And Societal Impacts Of Covid-19

        Authored by Samathna Biggers via BackDoorSurvival.com,

        There are many different ways that COVID-19 is going to affect the world. To quote the CDC “The disruption of daily life might be severe.” They are talking about the USA but this applies to the world as well. They should know because they totally failed the public on many levels at this point and increased the threat and danger to every person residing in the USA.

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        In this article, I am going to concentrate on some of the things that at this point are either starting to occur or very likely to occur over the next few months.

        Before I address supply chain disruptions and other societal impacts, I want to address how the government and the Center For Disease Control have totally failed and endangered the medical professionals and law enforcement officers of the United States.

        They failed in the following ways:

        • Did not provide timely and accurate information to police, medics, doctors, nurses, and other professionals. They did not tell these fine folks how contagious COVID-19 actually is. They never expressed that this disease is aerosolized.

        • Provided no way for medical professionals to test. The long delay in testing supplies combined with delivering dirty and unusable test kits has made a bad situation much worse than it had to be.

        • The CDC has stopped reporting testing after complaints about how few they were doing. This is irresponsible and not how an agency that is supposed to be working in the best interest of the health of America should act.

        • Refusing to acknowledge that the incubation period of COVID-19 is likely longer than 14 days. The result is an inadequate quarantine period.

        Coronavirus tests have been expensive for some.

        The fees for the coronavirus test are hard for many to cover. Insurance does not cover all of the fees but there are some states such as NY attempting to require insurance agencies to waive the cost. An unaffordable cost discourages people that suspect they may have the virus from coming forward, thus further endangering the health of the public. In an article from The Miami Herald a man claimed that he received a bill for $3,270 for a test and was responsible for $1400 of that after his insurance. The man had recently returned from China and arrived in Miami.

        This is shameful.

        The people that work hard to provide medical and emergency services for us are being let down and we will all pay for this in the future. What happens when the people trained to take care of us when we are sick and keep communities safe cannot because they are sick too?

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        The results of these decisions are highlighted in the stories and videos below.

        12 of the 30 firefighters and police officers that responded to the COVID-19 outbreak at the LifeCare Nursing Home in Kirkland, Washington are now exhibiting flu-like symptoms at the time of this writing. I really wish these fine folks had been informed and provided with some gear to protect themselves. This is tragic.

        5 Dallas police officers were sent home after it was discovered they were potentially exposed to COVID-19 due to interaction during the arrest and processing of a man.

        Even if you ignore the rest of my article, I urge you to at least watch the video below that highlights the struggle of doctors and how they cannot get what they need to test patients.

        Clothing

        Almost all clothing was made in China, Vietnam, and Cambodia. Even the fancy name brand designer labels that cost a fortune per piece take advantage of the low labor costs in these countries to produce their designer duds.

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        All those inexpensive cotton socks, underwear, and packs of t-shirts that we are used to are not going to be on the shelves. Some are still made in America but it will take quite some time to create the infrastructure necessary to meet increased domestic demand.

        Food

        Luckily, America is a country that produces more food than it consumes. There will be food as long as there are people to work on the farms. However, there are imported food items that you and your family may like a lot that could become either impossible to get or more expensive due to the collapse of the global shipping industry and how hard it is to procure the ingredients.

        Other countries that rely on the United States for food on some level will suffer a lot as crops and foods are not exported but consumed domestically or only exported to countries that are close enough to make it economically feasible.

        Pharmaceutical Drugs

        We rely on China for most antibiotics. India produces a lot of final product medications but many of the active ingredients are produced in China. There are already some medications that are starting to be harder to find. While some may rest a bit easier when reassured by Indian drug manufacturers that they have an 8 week supply on hand, that is not a big enough cushion to make me think this is not a serious problem.

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        Many people renewed their prescriptions sooner rather than later when items started appearing in the news that indicated that meds may be harder to get or that they may need to stay at home for many weeks. This led to supplies becoming more depleted at the beginning of the situation. Those that did not renew and get their meds, will be the first to suffer the consequences of doing without. Even so, everyone that is on meds will eventually feel the impact.

        Of course, there are also those that are on prescription medications that are only allowed a 30 day supply at a time. This is how it works with some drugs that are prescribed for mental health or pain. You also have to go to an actual pharmacy to get these meds. They won’t ship you major painkillers or drugs like Adderall or Ritalin for ADHD.

        Some medications you cannot quit suddenly without some potentially serious or fatal consequences. Consider how some people that rely on mental health medications are going to do if they suddenly have to quit. In the USA we have a pretty significant population on psychiatric medications.

        I wrote an article quite a while back on what might happen “When The Meds Run Out.”

        Medical Supplies

        From face masks to gloves to major medical equipment, China is the main manufacturer. Considering that we are dealing with an epidemic or pandemic depending on what you believe, now is a heck of a time to be facing shortages of medical supplies.

        Illicit Drug Supply Chain

        Some of you may have read the story about the shipping container boat owned by J.P. Morgan that was found with 20 tons of cocaine aboard with an estimated street value of $1.3 billion

        A lot of illegal drugs are smuggled in shipping containers that have other goods in them. Who knows how many days worth of supply is in the USA but regardless, at some point that amount is going to dwindle which will at first lead to higher prices for users. Some areas may lack any as dealers divert supplies to those that can pay more. At some point, there just may simply not be any of certain drugs across a big are.

        The increased cost alone will lead to more stealing and other crimes committed out of desperation to get the substance the user relies on. Some drugs incapacitate those in withdrawal while others don’t so much thus you have people that are desperate and capable of some pretty awful things.

        Appliances

        Some of the larger appliances are still made domestically but that doesn’t mean that they don’t rely on components manufactured in foreign countries. Usually, this country is China. Almost all small appliances are made in China from toasters ovens to coffee pots and blenders. Any device, even if you buy a better than average brand, has a working life.

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        At some point, what appliances and parts that are already in the country or at least in a nearby one, will start to dwindle. It is hard to say when this will happen because there are many factors at play. Maybe we have enough to get by until manufacturing starts up in US or else ware but I kind of doubt it.

        When your coffee pot breaks if may be a little harder to find a replacement that is anywhere near the price point you are used to paying. Even the small appliances that were considered cheaply made, will be resold for a much higher cost to those that want the convenience that they bring to their lives.

        Tools

        A lot of the power and hand tools we use every day are made in China or Japan. As a farmer and someone that built their house with their husband, I put a lot of value in tools. During hard times a lot of us may have to do more tasks on our own. Hopefully, our tools hold out for a while.

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        There are some good hand tools made in the USA but like so many things, the supply is far lower than the demand.

        Auto and Machine Parts

        A lot of auto manufacturers have decreased or stopped production because they cannot get the materials and components they need to produce vehicles or the parts needed to repair existing ones. How many of us have bought an aftermarket part for a car or small machine? Almost all the aftermarket generic parts that are affordable are made in China.

        Just about everything that the average person uses to maintain and run their household.

        I could list many more things that are in your home that may be harder to get. Sheets for your bed, towels, and blankets are just a few of the other items that are often made in China or India. Although India is not reporting a ton of cases yet, I suspect that the numbers are much greater and considering the population density, the potential for a major outbreak is extraordinary.

        More expensive goods due to a lack of low labor costs. Manufacturing will occur closer to home.

        We are used to being able to get a lot things at a low cost. This is not going to be as common. People will not work and are not able to work for the wages that they will in China, Vietnam, or Cambodia.

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        It will take a long time to get any production going domestically or in an alternative foreign location. There are many components that go into even basic electronics and appliances. Metals, small parts, etc, are something we used to take for granted as always being there.

        Price gouging is already happening. Demand is much higher for some items like N-95 masks. Price gouging and people reselling items on eBay for extremely high prices is something we are likely to see more and more of.

        Resentment and blame towards fellow consumers

        There are already people that are blaming fellow shoppers for them not being able to get items that they want. One person was angry because they could not find something for their baby and blamed people for stocking up. They called them selfish. Another man couldn’t put in his weekly order for 2 loaves of bread and was livid about it.

        When other more major shortages start to be apparent, the blaming will get worse, with many people in denial that the real cause is the lack of manufacturing and shipping.

        Politicization and the blame game is already happening and will continue to escalate.

        It really annoys me when important issues that affect us all get politicized. People from all across the political spectrum are already blaming this political party or this person. I am critical of the CDC but that is an agency that is supposed to work for all of us regardless of political leanings. I will not get caught up in the political blame game because it does nothing to help us get through this horrible virus that as all over the world. As far as I am concerned governments need to put aside some of the party politics and concentrate on the health crisis at hand.

        Racism and xenophobia will surface more often towards some groups.

        This is already happening all over the world. Those that kept their feelings to themselves are feeling that now is the time to express them. There are also some that have switched to this way of thinking. While checking in on a new friend in Italy I met in a preparedness group on Facebook, he told me of a man verbally abusing a Chinese lady in the street by loudly yelling that “All the s*** eaters need to go back home”. This was more than a week ago and at the very beginning of the quarantines in Italy and occurred in a town that was not yet under mandatory quarantine.

        It will be harder to shelter children from the woes of the world.

        Kids are going to ask a lot of questions. While causing them to panic and freak out is not the answer, it is going to be a lot harder to hide what is going on over a period of time. Some parents have decided to approach it from encouraging more hand washing and telling children and teens to avoid people that are coughing or showing signs of illness. I think that a degree of honesty is best myself but I realize that how you raise your child is something that is ultimately a personal decision.

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        There may be a time when kids and teens ask some other really tough questions that you will need to address and it will be practically impossible to shield them from. What if something awful like a friend or family member gets sick, is hospitalized, or even dies? Kids may also have some questions about the xenophobia and racism that could pop up.

        Events that involve large groups will be rarer and many that are planned will be canceled.

        Sometimes I am sitting here typing and an ad will come on Pandora from an artist telling me to catch them on tour. Now when I hear that I think about how many of those big concerts and sporting events are going to be canceled. In some cases when they are not canceled, the musicians or players will either be greeted by a nearly empty or empty venue. In Italy, soccer teams are playing without the fans due to the possibility of spread.

        Children and teens that are used to the team spirit and camaraderie that comes from participating in organized sports may have to face losing that part of their life.

        The travel industry will crash

        Travel agents and online booking sites are facing record-breaking numbers of cancellations. This means at least a partial refund of fees that were already paid.

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        Anyone that works at hotels, for airlines or any industry that caters to travelers is going to be affected. The ripple effect is going to be very noticeable. I would not be surprised to see some hotels and motels shut down and never open again. Bankruptcies in the travel industry are very likely to accelerate greatly over the next year.

        The cruise ship industry, in particular, is being hit hard and with good reason considering the disaster of the Diamond Princess and other cruise ships.

        People will become more isolated. Social distancing will be the rule for many.

        Doing what you can to distance yourself from others is one of the things that you have some control over. While staying at home is not an option for many due to their jobs or school, avoiding other social situations, shopping online, or visiting stores at very low volume times are all possible. Many people have been doing this for quite some time.

        Restaurants, coffee shops, and bars are going to face some tough times.

        Some of the first social distancing will be people avoiding restaurants and drinking establishments. This is one of the easiest things for people to do to reduce exposure to others. At the moment, staying at home and popping a frozen pizza in the oven makes sense to some. Going out and socializing is something people like to do but you can have a beer at home for less money and avoid exposure. There are a lot of people employed in the restaurant and bar industry. Many of these hard-working people rely on tipping that is just not going to be there.

        The lack of cargo to ship will have a significant effect on the shipping and transport industries.

        This is another industry that employs a lot of people. From the local UPS and FedEx drivers to the port and cargo ship workers. While at the time a lot of people are utilizing mail order, as time goes on and there are less goods to ship, the volume will drop. Volume has already dropped dramatically at ports on the western and eastern seaboards of the United States. Where shipping containers were once stacked as high as buildings, there is empty space and nothing coming in.

        This video shows what some of the ports look like at this time. It was taken by a lady that drives container trucks to and from the port.

        Truck drivers that service ports, as well as those responsible for moving cargo across the country, will likely feel the effects of fewer goods to distribute.

        Lack of demand for oil will cause the barrel price to crash.

        The oil markets are already experiencing the effects of less demand. When this continues, the price will drop a lot. Of course, if some oil production shuts down as a result, the price may go back up to some degree. Regardless there are going to be some dips and volatility in the oil market.

        Families will either learn to get along or be miserable. Some will simply fall apart because they cannot cope with all that time together.

        There will be more homeschooled children and teens in the future.

        Some school districts are already creating plans for delivering learning materials online. Other people are thinking about homeschooling as an option. I was homeschooled from 7th-12th grade. It was the best option for me. Although I was doing very well in school, it was boring and the social aspects were not something I enjoyed. I had to spend 90 minutes of my life on a bus because the nearest junior high was 10 miles away and that took 45 minutes each way.

        While parents may have to go to work, I do have to say that some responsible teens may be able to handle staying at home and completing their studies even if you are not there. I was pretty much self-taught through junior high through graduation.

        If you find yourself working from home and feel that you should eliminate the risk of exposure via schools, then homeschooling is something to consider. Many kids find that they enjoy it and have more time to do other things like learn skills or even help out around the house. A lot of time is wasted within the public school system.

        Conclusion

        Times are not going to be easy. We are going to be facing some major disruptions to our way of life in the future. Let’s hope that a cure and better treatment becomes available soon. Even if things dramatically improve, the global supply chain is going to be forever changed.

        I wish the best for you and your family during this trying time.

        *  *  *

        To keep up to date on coronavirus I encourage you to subscribe to the Peak Prosperity Youtube Channel.

        Chris does a fantastic job covering the latest news that you should know about COVID-19. He has been producing a daily video covering COVID-19 since the epidemic started.


        Tyler Durden

        Fri, 03/06/2020 – 21:45

      • Costco Runs Out Of Toilet Paper (Won't Have More For Centuries)
        Costco Runs Out Of Toilet Paper (Won’t Have More For Centuries)

        Last week we highlighted how Americans across the country have begun to panic, heading to their local Costco and other big-box stores in a mad dash to hoard supplies as coronavirus descends on the country.

        “It’s been nuts,” said Costco CFO Richard Galanti on a Thursday earnings call with investors.

        And now, a photo from an unidentified Costco reveals just how dire the problem is…

        On a more serious note, big-box stores have been raking it in of late – with Costco reporting sales up 12% y/y, saying they had “benefited from an uptick in consumer demand in the fourth week of the reporting period” when coronavirus fears swept the country.

        “We attribute this to concerns over the coronavirus,” said the company.

        Stock prices for Walmart and Target have also benefited from the spread of the deadly virus, as people preparing for a quarantine situation load up shopping carts with bottled water, canned soup, instant mac and cheese and everything else that they could possibly need to wait out the virus. But the panic-buying has been leading to shortages and leaving people on edge. –WaPo

        https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

        And on Thursday morning, the San Bernardino County Sheriff’s Department showed up at the Chino, California Hills Costco after receiving reports that customers had become aggressive after learning that they were out of water, toilet paper and paper towels.

        To try and manage the situation, some locations have been limiting sales of essential items:

        We warned you several years ago that Venezuela was coming to America. Who knew it would be caused by a virus.

        https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js


        Tyler Durden

        Fri, 03/06/2020 – 21:35

      • Obama-Era Inspector General Indicted On 16 Counts Of Theft And Fraud
        Obama-Era Inspector General Indicted On 16 Counts Of Theft And Fraud

        The Department of Justice (DOJ) announced on Friday that the Obama administration’s Acting Homeland Security Inspector General and his former subordinate were indicted on 16 counts of theft and fraud.

        The charges against 59-year-old Charles K. Edwards and his underling Murali Yamazula Venkata, 54, include theft of government property, wire fraud, aggravated identity theft, and conspiracy to defraud the United States. Venkata is also charged with destruction of records.

        According to the allegations in the indictment, from October 2014 to April 2017, Edwards, Venkata, and others executed a scheme to defraud the U.S. government by stealing confidential and proprietary software from DHS Office of Inspector General (OIG), along with sensitive government databases containing personal identifying information (PII) of DHS and USPS employees, so that Edwards’s company, Delta Business Solutions, could later sell an enhanced version of DHS-OIG’s software to the Office of Inspector General for the U.S. Department of Agriculture at a profit.  Although Edwards had left DHS-OIG in December 2013, he continued to leverage his relationship with Venkata and other DHS-OIG employees to steal the software and the sensitive government databases. -DOJ

        Venkata and others are also accused of reconfiguring Edwards’ laptop so that he could upload the stolen software and databases, and helped troubleshoot whenever Edwards needed. He even built a test server at his house with the stolen software and databases.

        Edwards is also accused of employing Indian software developers for the purpose of developing his ripoff of DHS’s software.


        Tyler Durden

        Fri, 03/06/2020 – 21:25

      • "Someone Big Was Utterly Blown The F**k Out": Here's The Reason Behind Today's Unprecedented VIX Move
        “Someone Big Was Utterly Blown The F**k Out”: Here’s The Reason Behind Today’s Unprecedented VIX Move

        There was a bizarre moment this afternoon, when in the 40 minutes heading into the final hour of trading, the VIX kept rising and rising, preventing the S&P from doing its sworn duty of spiking higher into the weekend. And then, just after 310pm ET (or 1210 PT), the VIX collapsed, plunging by as much as 14 vols from 54.39 – the highest print since Lehman – to 40.84, the low for the day, and unleashing another unprecedented stock buying cascade, which almost sent the Dow green. 

        <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

        What happened?

        As the following chat session between three individuals, which includes a former CME index option trader (X), all of whom wish to remain anonymous lays out, what happened is that the VIX ramped as a major Chicago market maker was caught in the infamous gamma short squeeze, which forced them to keep buying the VIX as the VIX soared, in the process ending the VIX even higher, only to get margin called out of their position by their clearing firm, puking their entire position while liquidating anything they could, and unleashing the VIX selling avalanche and the 700 Dow point rally.

        Regular readers will recognize this pattern: it is what happened, only not with the VIX by ES, back in February 2017, when the Catalyst Hedged Futures Strategy Fund pushed the entire market higher when it, itself, was caught in a similar gamma trap (and which this January was finally busted for fraud).

        Below the the full chat laying out what happened:

        X: Someone got carried out of the pit in spx options 15 minutes ago

        X: Utterly blown the fuck out

        X: Their clearing firm literally liquidated some big market maker in Chicago hahahaha

        X: Go to Ceres today

        Y: Omfg

        X: Someone big literally doesn’t exist anymore

        X: WE’RE RUINED MORTIMER

        X: It caused a huge dislocation in the vix

        X: You could see them blow out 😂

        X: God i feel so happy now

        X: (Ssssiiiippp)

        Z: Someone hacked into this Boise publication and is posting redpills on their Twitter

        Z: [link to Boise Weekly hacked twitter account]

        Z: Is one of those degenerate leftist weekly publications so common in urban areas

        X: Lol nice

        Z: What’s going on with the spx?

        X: Bro

        X: What a lollercoaster

        X: Im in cloud 9 right now

        X: My old he lush trading firm blew out vs vix 32

        X: Now someone else the same size did it vs 48 haha

        X: Old hellish*

        X: Consolidated trading blew out vs vix 32 last week

        X: Verifiable true

        Z: Do you know the other firm?

        X: I wanna say they were the 4th largest market maker in chicago

        X: Asking my friend. Trying to find out

        [pictures of VIX vs /ES[H2O] on TOS]

        X: That dramatic rise in the vix is inconsistent with the speed and depth of the fall in sp500

        X: Someone literally got liquidated around 3 eastern

        X: [Z] tell them about consolidated trading

        X: “Consolidated Trading was well known across Chicago as degenerate risk takers who would always maintain a short vol/gamma position regardless of market conditions. Finally bit them in the ass last week and they blew out even after the market gave them tons of opportunity to get flat or long vs vix 23”

        X: [Screenshot of another chat he’s in]:

        Q: Vix 52

        Q: 14 day vol is 60 lol

        Q: Bro

        Q: Someone big in Chicago just got carried out of the pit

        Q: Their clearing firm mega puking them out CAUSED A SEVEN POINT POP IN THE VIX

        Q: Reversed in minutes

        Q: MORTIMER WE’RE RUINED lmfao]

        And that’s what’s behind 700 point ramp today, confirming that the only movie one needs to watch to understand how the market really works is Trading Places.


        Tyler Durden

        Fri, 03/06/2020 – 21:23

      • 2 Individuals At AIPAC Conference With Pence, Pompeo, McConnell & Others Test Positive For Covid-19
        2 Individuals At AIPAC Conference With Pence, Pompeo, McConnell & Others Test Positive For Covid-19

        Tehran is going to love this…

        As the novel coronavirus spreads through Westchester County’s Jewish community following an outbreak in New Rochelle, it’s perhaps unsurprising that several individuals who attended the 2020 AIPAC conference, which was held in Washington DC earlier this week, have tested positive for the virus.

        <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

        The incident is rapidly becoming a lesson in just how difficult it is to keep VIPs – including even senior leaders in our government – away from the virus. In a statement released Friday evening, the organizers of the conference confirmed that two attendees had tested positive at an event where Vice President Mike Pence was a keynote speaker, and where several other senior administration officials were present.

        Other high-ranking Republicans in attendance included Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Senator and former Trump rival Ted Cruz and Rep. Liz Cheney, the daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney.

        Read the full statement below:

        https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

        The identities of the infected individuals who attended the conference were not released, as per a new policy governing the identities of those who have been infected.

        The organization said it notified attendees to consult the CDC’s guidelines for those who may have come into contact with the virus. The guidelines advice individuals to avoid close contact with others, and try to isolate while watching for any symptoms. Should symptoms emerge, individuals are advised to call their doctors and report the situation.

        Though many have complained that they haven’t been able to access tests despite contacting their doctor because, as the Atlantic revealed earlier, fewer than 2,000 tests have been administered in the US so far due to a dire shortage that administration officials have attempted to underplay.

        The situation in Iran, where a senior adviser to the Ayatollah was infected, a former ambassador to Syria died, and nearly 2 dozen lawmakers have been infected, offered a lesson in the risks that the virus – which of course can’t be stopped or stunted by traditional weaponry – presents.


        Tyler Durden

        Fri, 03/06/2020 – 21:05

      • Congress Rips Boeing's "Culture Of Concealment" & FAA's 'Jeopardizing' Public In Scathing 737 MAX Report
        Congress Rips Boeing’s “Culture Of Concealment” & FAA’s ‘Jeopardizing’ Public In Scathing 737 MAX Report

        In a sense finally making the long developing scandal official in terms of where blame lies and who covered it up, Congress has blasted Boeing’s “culture of concealment” which recklessly pursued cost-cutting over safety, made worse by the Federal Aviation Administration’s woeful lack of oversight, leading to twin deadly crashes of Boeing’s 737 MAX jets and 346 lives lost in late 2018 and March 2019. The report cites “efforts to obfuscate information” involving an automated system that “violated Boeing’s own internal design guidelines.”

        Preliminary findings issued by Democrats on the House Transportation Committee Friday afternoon found Boeing executives and FAA regulators ignored the fatal software glitch which was simply shipped by default with all new 737 MAX planes instead of being repaired.

        Boeing “failed in its duty to identify key safety problems and to ensure they were adequately addressed during the certification process,” the House committee found. 

        <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

        Source: Getty Images/CBS

        “Friday’s report details Boeing’s determination at various levels — years before the MAX won approval by the Federal Aviation Administration — to avoid putting any pilots through costly ground-simulator training,” the WSJ writes. And further summarizes, “That single-minded goal was evident across Boeing’s engineering, marketing and management ranks, according to the report, and resulted in various efforts to mislead or withhold information from FAA officials during the lengthy certification process.”

        The Congressional report, which comes as the result of a series of five public hearings into the MAX’s design and production after it was ground world-wide last March, also excoriated the FAA for its “grossly insufficient” review of the plane which ultimately “jeopardized the safety of the flying public” with its “inherent conflicts of interest” — even though it’s supposed to be the final impartial safety watchdog.

        Here are key damning conclusions from the report per The Seattle Times:

        • Extensive efforts at Boeing to cut costs, maintain the MAX program schedule, and not slow down the MAX production line undermined the safety of the jet.
        • Faulty assumptions led Boeing to fail to classify new flight control software on the MAX called the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System, or MCAS, as a safety-critical technology that demanded more scrutiny.
        • In order to avoid greater FAA scrutiny and increased pilot training requirements, Boeing practiced a “Culture of Concealment” that withheld crucial information from the FAA, its airline customers, and pilots.
        • Inherent conflicts of interest among authorized representatives of the FAA, who are Boeing employees authorized to perform certification work on behalf of the FAA, ”jeopardized the safety of the flying public.”
        • Boeing’s influence over the FAA’s oversight resulted in FAA management rejecting safety concerns raised by the agency’s own technical experts at the behest of Boeing.

        After these and other scathing critiques in the Congressional findings, the FAA instead of a full-frontal acknowledgement to the public of its role leading up to disasters involving hundreds of deaths and grieving relatives, merely lamely stated that “we are a learning agency and welcome the scrutiny.”

        <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

        Then president and chief executive officer of The Boeing Company at a Congressional hearing last year, via EPA/The Guardian.

        “The lessons learned from the investigations into the tragic accidents of Lion Air Flight 610 and Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 will be a springboard to an even greater level of safety,” the FAA statement added. 

        However, we doubt that few among the traveling public will find such an ‘assurance’ believable or comforting, also considering the potential expanding nature of the safety issues and cover-up, as the WSJ notes additionally: “More broadly, the reports also details examples of FAA managers overruling safety concerns of their own technical experts related to another Boeing airliner, the Boeing 787.”


        Tyler Durden

        Fri, 03/06/2020 – 20:45

      • 15th American Dies From Coronavirus In Washington, First Case Confirmed In Hawaii: Live Updates
        15th American Dies From Coronavirus In Washington, First Case Confirmed In Hawaii: Live Updates

        Summary:

        • 15th US death reported in WA
        • First case confirmed in Hawaii
        • CDC has tested fewer than 2,000 Americans, Atlantic reports
        • 15 more patients from Kirkland nursing home hospitalized
        • 2nd LAX screener tests positive
        • LA County confirms another 2 cases, bringing total to 13
        • Germany reports 90 new cases to 534
        • Saudi Arabia suspends sports events starting Saturday
        • U. of Washington will move all classes online for rest of semester
        • McDonald’s cancels franchisee convention
        • Iraqi officials report third death
        • LatAm airline employee confirmed as Peru’s first coronavirus case
        • Houston area confirms 6th case
        • Italy reports another 678 cases
        • Gap closes NYC office
        • New York cases climb to 33
        • Baggage handler at Heathrow tests positive
        • Madrid closes old folks homes
        • 5 schools close in PA.
        • Trump visit to CDC is back on
        • WHO: “false hope” that virus will disappear when summer arrives
        • WHO: We don’t know mortality rate
        • Kudlow: “Buy stocks”
        • 2nd death in UK, cases hit 163; France reports 2 new deaths bringing total to 9
        • French total cases hits 577
        • Egypt reports 12 cases aboard cruise ship on the Nile
        • 2,733 asked to voluntarily quarantine in NYC
        • Trump scraps trip to CDC
        • Switzerland, the Netherlands report 1st deaths
        • Slovakia only country in Europe without coronavirus
        • Russia accuses Italy of spreading virus
        • Singapore reports 13 new cases, largest one-day jump since outbreak began
        • US case total: 234
        • South Korea, Japan feud over virus
        • Microsoft, Adidas, Lockheed say at least 1 employee has contracted virus
        • China claims it can have vaccine ready by April
        • Pompeo says China withheld information, leaving US “behind the curve”

        * * *

        Update (2040ET): After several close calls, Hawaii Gov. David Ige has just confirmed the first case of coronavirus in Hawaii.

        After 21 people tested positive for Covid-19 on the ‘Grand Princess’, the cruise ship drifting off the coast of San Francisco, public health officials in Hawaii tested a passenger who had traveled on the ship. According to local TV station KITV, the ship made port calls in Nawiliwili on Feb. 26, Honolulu on Feb. 27, Lahaina on Feb. 28 and Hilo on Feb 29.

        The Hawaiian patient, though not technically confirmed by the CDC yet, appears to be the 22nd case associated with the ship revealed on Friday. The case brings the total number in the US to 321.

        * * *

        Update (1550ET): LA County has confirmed another 2 cases bringing total to 13 case.

        • LOS ANGELES COUNTY: TOTAL NUMBER OF CORONAVIRUS CASES NOW AT 13

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        One of the new cases is a part of a group who recently traveled to Northern Italy, the other was working as a screener at LAX, marking the second LAX screener to catch the virus.

        https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

        Since the first screener tested positive on Tuesday, LAX and DHS have been testing all the screeners who work at the airport, according to the LA Times. 

        In a statement, the Department of Homeland Security described the worker as a medical screener who “wore all the correct protective equipment and took necessary protections on the job.”

        “As soon as the individual began to feel sick, they self-quarantined, saw a physician, and reported to the appropriate authorities and officials,” a DHS spokesperson said in the statement.

        As we noted earlier, US trade officials granted tariff waivers for a spate of products ranging from medical masks to isolation gowns that will be needed to combat the virus, preferably at affordable prices. The decision by the office of the US trade representative to ease tariffs on such key medical supplies was communicated to companies that had made the request for an exclusion the day before.

        The products in question, which also include shoe covers, surgical drapes, and specimen containers, were part of $120 billion worth of Chinese goods that were subject to 15% tariffs between September and mid February, when the levies dropped to 7.5% under the terms of a truce deal reached between Washington and Beijing in January, per the FT.

        Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has announced suspending public attendance at all sports events starting Saturday.

        * * *

        Update (1510ET): Washington State has reported the country’s 15th coronavirus death. In other news, Apple has reportedly asked the 12,000 employees at is Cupertino HQ to work from home amid the outbreak.

        Outside the US, Colombia has just confirmed its first case of the virus, breaking the news less than an hour after the first case was confirmed in Peru.

        * * *

        Update (1500ET): MasterCard has confirmed that an employee in its Sao Paolo office has tested positive.

        * * *

        Update (1445ET): As American officials tout their efforts to secure 1 million masks by the end of the day, a task that we had previously reported they were falling far behind on, the Atlantic is reporting that only 1,895 Americans have been tested so far. Roughly 10% of those have tested positive.

        Here’s more from the Atlantic, which billed the lack of tests as the biggest piece of evidence that the Trump Administration is botching the effort.

        “The CDC got this right with H1N1 and Zika, and produced huge quantities of test kits that went around the country,” Thomas Frieden, the director of the CDC from 2009 to 2017, told us. “I don’t know what went wrong this time.”

        Through interviews with dozens of public-health officials and a survey of local data from across the country, The Atlantic could only verify that 1,895 people have been tested for the coronavirus in the United States, about 10 percent of whom have tested positive. And while the American capacity to test for the coronavirus has ramped up significantly over the past few days, local officials can still test only several thousand people a day, not the tens or hundreds of thousands indicated by the White House’s promises.

        Through interviews with dozens of public-health officials and a survey of local data from across the country, The Atlantic could only verify that 1,895 people have been tested for the coronavirus in the United States, about 10 percent of whom have tested positive. And while the American capacity to test for the coronavirus has ramped up significantly over the past few days, local officials can still test only several thousand people a day, not the tens or hundreds of thousands indicated by the White House’s promises.

        To arrive at our estimate, we contacted the public-health departments of all 50 states and the District of Columbia. We gathered data on websites, and we corresponded with dozens of state officials. All 50 states and D.C. have made some information available, though the quality and timeliness of the data varied widely. Some states have only committed to releasing their numbers once or three times a week. Most are focused on the number of confirmed cases; only a few have publicized the number of people they are capable of testing.

        This follows a decision by the CDC to stop publishing data about the number of tests administered, a decision that has angered many experts. It’s let to a patchwork of state reports making data that much more difficult to gather. While South Korea tested more than 10,000 people a day from the beginning of the outbreak, across the US, officials can only administer a few hundreds tests a day.

        Meanwhile, up in Washington State, health officials in King County, the epicenter of the outbreak, revealed that another 15 patients from a the nursing home in Kirkland have been sent to a hospital. Every patient and staffer at the facility is in the process of being tested. At least eight of the 14 deaths in the US have been Kirkland residents, the NYT reported in a  story  about the situation at the nursing home.

        A team of 30 federal officials will arrive on Saturday to help with the situation at the home, state officials said.

        Meanwhile, Iraqi officials reported the third death in the country in the region of Karbala, along with eight new cases.

        * * *

        Update (1425ET): McDonald’s has cancelled its annual franchisees convention.

        * * *

        Update (1330ET): ABC13 reports that a sixth pending case of the virus has been confirmed in the Houston area, and the second in the City of Houston.

        The Houston case is a woman in her 60s who was part of a group of travelers who visited Egypt.

        The five previous patients were being treated for the virus after traveling to Egypt as a group last month. Two of the patients were  people in northwest Harris County, while two men were considered presumptive cases, one in Harris and one in Houston.

        This woman is now Houston’s second case.

        Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo has said the county had treated everyone who participated in the trip as a ‘presumptive’ positive, which turned out to be a smart move.

        Also: Health officials in Peru and LatAm Airlines have confirmed that the airline employee has been confirmed as Peru’s case of the virus.

        “This new case in Houston is not unexpected because it’s among the same group of international travelers associated with other cases in the Houston area,” said Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner. “There remains no evidence of community spread, no need to alter our normal activity in Houston and certainly no reason to let fear grip our lives.”

        In other news, France’s case count has climbed to 613, of those 39 are in intensive care. The death toll stands at 9.

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        * * *

        Update (1310ET): Five schools in the Central Bucks School District, where five schools have closed for deep cleaning over potential exposure to the coronavirus as the state of PA confirms its first cases of the coronavirus. New Jersey might soon join, having advised public schools to plan for the possibility that buildings could be closed if the spread of coronavirus worsens within the state. Meanwhile, Pennsylvania has become the latest state to declare some kind of public emergency when Gov Tom Wolf signed a coronavirus disaster declaration, according to the Philly Inquirer.

        This all comes after the state announced 2 presumptive positives.

        https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

        The governor said the order would help the state prepare for the outbreak.

        In other news, an airline employee has apparently tested positive for the virus in Peru.

        • LATAM AIRLINES SAYS EMPLOYEE IN PERU HAS TESTED POSITIVE FOR CORONAVIRUS -INTERNAL MEMO

        RTRS

        This is the third global airline to have a reported coronavirus issue in the past five hours, Singapore Airlines and Austrian Airlines.

        * * *

        Update (1255ET): Trade officials have granted an exemption to a company seeking exemptions to import masks after the firm cited a “critical shortage.”

        • U.S. TRADE OFFICIALS GRANT TARIFF RELIEF FOR FACEMASKS, MEDICAL EQUIPMENT
        • MEDLINE INDUSTRIES CITED ‘CRITICAL SHORTAGE OF FACEMASKS’ IN SEEKING EXEMPTION
        • 27 COMPANIES GRANTED TARIFF EXEMPTIONS FOR 103 PRODUCTS FROM CHINA

        * * *

        Update (1240ET): Cuomo slammed the CDC’s approach to testing. Given limited test supplies, a situation that the government is scrambling to rectify, only patients with permission from doctors can get tested. Though they can’t guarantee results right away, if ever.

        “We have said from day 1 that we are increasing our testing capacity, our goal is to get to 1,000 (tests per day). We wanted to increase our capacity with private labs. CDC was slow to approve the use of private labs, but we got it done and now we’re contracting with private labs to increase capacity.”

        “But if you can only do 500 tests per day, you need to triage cases. You can’t just say, anybody who wants to get tested call your doctor. You can’t say ‘if you want to get tested enter here’ when there’s no exit.”

        “I think this is months. I think the anxiety and the fear is more of a problem than the virus. I think it’ll continue for months.”

        He then made a poorly received joke about receiving overtime pay.

        * * *

        Update (1230ET): The CDC’s official US case totals aren’t much use to us since they’re confirming the “presumptive” cases from state labs pretty slowly, allowing independent case counts by BNO News and the Washington Post to keep well ahead. But the agency just reported that as of 4 pm ET on Thursday (March 5), the total case count is 213, a 64-case increase since Wednesday.

        Meanwhile, Cuomo’s press conference continues. The governor confirmed that all 11 new cases are from Westchester County. He added that 80% of coronavirus cases will ‘self-resolve’. He insisted that he’s not urging “calm”, he’s urging “reality.”

        He spent much of the press conference complaining about the paltry $35 million earmarked for New York State in the federal coronavirus emergency spending bill.

        “It’s ludicrous, it’s a drop in the bucket,” Cuomo said.

        He also said that a 3.4% mortality rate seems “high for this country and especially for this state”. He said the WHO number was high even for a “global number.” “You don’t know what the denominator is so you really have no idea.”

        * * *

        Update (1220ET): New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo has confirmed another 11 cases in his state, bringing the total to 33.

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        Watch the rest of his press conference below:

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        * * *

        Update (1205ET): As Europe’s worst outbreak continues to worsen, Italian health authorities just confirmed another 678 cases of the virus, bringing the total to 4,636.

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        A few other updates over the last hour:

        Facebook is closing its London offices.

        • FACEBOOK SAYS IT IS CLOSING ITS LONDON OFFICES UNTIL MONDAY AFTER AN EMPLOYEE BASED IN SINGAPORE WHO HAS BEEN DIAGNOSED WITH COVID-19 VISITED THE LONDON OFFICES ON 24-26 FEBRUARY

        Gap has closed its New York office after a worker was infected (BBG).

        Preppy apparel retailer Gap Inc. has closed its New York City headquarters after a worker tested positive for the coronavirus.
        The building is located at 55 Thomas St. in Lower Manhattan. The person isn’t in the office and is recovering at home, according to a memo sent to Gap workers at the location.

        A baggage handler at Heathrow Airport in London has tested positive (BBG):

        Coronavirus has reached Europe’s busiest airport, after two British Airways baggage handlers at London Heathrow tested positive for the disease.

        The affected workers are recovering in isolation at home, British Airways parent IAG SA said Friday in an email. A small number of the luggage handlers’ colleagues are also being tested, a person familiar with the matter said.

        Madrid Closes 213 Old People’s Centers on Coronavirus (BBG + El Pais):

        Madrid region will close 213 old people’s centers for a month to avoid novel coronavirus infections, El Pais newspaper reports, without specifying how it got the information.

        Total number of cases in Spain rose to 374, Health Ministry said.

        Earlier, Russia blamed Italy for the handful of cases identified inside Russia’s borders.

        * * *

        Update (1155ET): As the number of confirmed cases in NYC nears double-digit territory, more banks are telling their people to work from home or travel to ‘backup sites’. The latest is Citi, which is reportedly moving its traders and salespeople to a backup site in Rutherford.

        Mastercard has shut two offices after an employee contracted the virus.

        * * *

        Update (1115ET): Mexico said it’s considering additional fiscal stimulus to combat the economic fallout from the coronavirus outbreak. Meanwhile, the State Department is reportedly considering whether to recommend that Americans avoid cruises for now.

        • EXCLUSIVE – U.S. IS CONSIDERING WAYS TO DISCOURAGE SOME U.S. TRAVELERS FROM TAKING CRUISES AS PART OF EFFORTS TO LIMIT SPREAD OF CORONAVIRUS  – U.S. OFFICIALS
        • EXCLUSIVE – U.S. OFFICIALS SAY NO FINAL DECISION HAS BEEN MADE ON ANY POTENTIAL CRUISE INDUSTRY ACTIONS IN REGARDS TO CORONAVIRUS
        • WHITE HOUSE MULLING DEFERRED TAXES OVER VIRUS IMPACT: WAPO

        And as Larry Kudlow said earlier and WaPo is now apparently reporting, the White House is weighing additional tax cuts to combat virus impact.

        * * *

        Update (1105ET): Just two days after the WHO declared that the global mortality rate for the coronavirus was 3.4%, which prompted an avalanche of criticism of President Trump, who said he had a “hunch” the mortality rate was closer to 1% a day before US officials released an official estimate reflecting the same, the WHO has apparently back-tracked, claiming it actually can’t say for certain what the mortality rate is.

        • WHO’S VAN KERKHOVE SAYS WE DON’T KNOW TRUE MORTALITY RATE
        • WHO’S RYAN: VIRUS MAY BE DEVASTATING IN REFUGEE CAMPS
        • *WHO: HIGH-INCOME COUNTRIES LACK SUFFICIENT HOSPITAL CAPACITY

        White House Press Secretary Stephanie Grisham just said his visit to the CDC is “back on”, after Trump said something about a potential coronavirus test at the facility in Atlanta.

        Grisham said that person has actually tested negative, so he visit is back on. The visit is set for 4 pm ET.

        * * *

        Update (1055ET): NPR just reported that the University of Washington, a state university based in Seattle, will hold the rest of its classes online until the end of the semester.

        * * *

        Update (1045ET): Germany has just reported another 90 cases of the coronavirus, raising its total yo 534. But more importantly, WHO’s Dr. Mike Ryan said Friday in the organization’s latest attempt to shade President Trump that the notion the virus will disappear with the arrival of the summer months is a “false hope.” WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros said that up to 20 vaccines are in the works, and that the business community must help governments suppress the virus.

        Ryan also defended Japan and South Korea, saying they are doing a “fine” job.

        • WHO’S TEDROS SAYS SLOWING DOWN THE EPIDEMIC SAVES LIVES
        • WHO’S RYAN SAYS JAPAN, SOUTH KOREA DOING FINE JOB VS VIRUS
        • WHO’S TEDROS: ONLY WAY TO BEAT VIRUS IS THROUGH UNITED EFFORT
        • WHO’S RYAN: IT’S A FALSE HOPE VIRUS WILL DISAPPEAR IN SUMMER
        • WHO’S RYAN: WE’RE ENTERING NEW ERA IN TERMS OF INTERACTIONS
        • WHO SAYS ABSOLUTELY CRITICAL THAT PEOPLE WASH THEIR HANDS

        Over the past few weeks, President Trump has repeatedly said that the “corona flu” will disappear in the spring when the regular flu season ends.

        * * *

        Update (0950ET): Perhaps unsurprisingly given the shape of the market, White House economic advisory Larry Kudlow was subjected to an uncharacteristically vigorous grilling Friday morning during an appearance on CNBC, the network where he once served as an anchor, until leaving to work at the White House.

        Kudlow insisted that Americans should “go about their business,” adding that “national infection risk is low” – though there are exceptions.

        “I would avoid Seattle,” Kudlow said, adding that travelers should use ‘common sense’ and avoid areas with outbreaks. He also repeatedly pointed out that “80% of people who get this” come out of the illness with “no trouble” – meaning we assume that they recover without requiring hospitalization.

        As far as a vaccine is concerned, Kudlow said that companies are racing to find a cure (a race that the FT laid out in detail earlier this week).

        “I just think the private sector is going to resolve this disease as they have in the past as you well know…we are a free country that believes in free enterprise – they call it the ‘American model’ of enterprise.”

        While he believes economic growth will slow over the next quarter will slow and that the US has seen some “modest disturbances” in supply chain deliveries (“though in general ISMs look okay”), Kudlow insisted that “there’s an export boom coming once this virus dies down later in the year.

        Should investors buy the dip in stocks?

        “Yes,” Kudlow said. “It’s not a timing call, I’m not a tactical guy…but long run investors, absolutely.”

        “I would still argue that this is contained, but you can’t be airtight.”

        “This is not going to go on forever. This is going to run out of steam.”

        Here are the headlines via Reuters:

        • WHITE HOUSE ADVISER KUDLOW SAYS U.S. ECONOMY IS FUNDAMENTALLY SOUND -CNBC INTERVIEW
        • KUDLOW SAYS U.S. ECONOMY WILL SLOW DOWN IN CERTAIN SECTORS, BUT SLOWDOWN WILL BE TEMPORARY
        • KUDLOW SAYS HE DOES NOT THINK U.S. GOV’T SHOULD BE ‘THROWING CASH’ AROUND IN SHORT-TERM REBATE-TYPE PLANS
        • KUDLOW SAYS MAGNITUDE OF LIKELY SLOWDOWN IN U.S. ECONOMY IS NOT KNOWN
        • KUDLOW SAYS TRUMP ADMINISTRATION WOULD PREFER A TARGETED APPROACH TO ANY FISCAL STIMULUS MEASURES
        • KUDLOW SAYS MORE INFORMATION NEEDED BEFORE ACTION CAN BE TAKEN TO HELP ECONOMY WITH FISCAL MEASURES
        • KUDLOW SAYS HE DOES NOT WANT TO PANIC ON POLICY MEASURES IN RESPONSE TO CORONAVIRUS
        • KUDLOW SAYS AMERICANS SHOULD BUY THE DIP WHEN IT COMES TO STOCKS
        • KUDLOW SAYS WHEN THERE ARE MARKET CORRECTIONS, LONG-TERM INVESTORS SHOULD THINK SERIOUSLY ABOUT BUYING DURING THE DIPS
        • KUDLOW SAYS UNDERSTANDABLE THAT AMERICANS WOULD WANT TO AVOID TRAVEL TO SEATTLE, BUT SIMILAR CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAKS NOT SEEN ELSEWHERE IN U.S.
        • KUDLOW SAYS NATIONAL INFECTION RISK FROM CORONAVIRUS IS LOW, AVERAGE AMERICANS SHOULD GO ABOUT THEIR BUSINESS
        • KUDLOW SAYS HE THINK U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NEXT QUARTER WILL SLOW
        • KUDLOW SAYS HE DOES NOT THINK U.S. IS FACING RECESSION

        Kudlow is now speaking on Bloomberg TV where he usually faces “a much rougher ride,” as NewSquawk pointed out.

        * * *

        Update (0920ET): Egypt has confirmed 12 new coronavirus cases on a cruise ship traveling down the Nile from Aswan to Luxor, according to a statement from the Egyptian health ministry and the WHO.

        According to CNN, the health ministry spokesman Khaled Megahed said the detection came after the WHO warned Egypt that a Taiwanese-American tourist, who was on board the cruise, had tested positive after returning home, Ahram Online added.

        The 12 cases, all of whom are Egyptian crew members, have tested positive after “a test was carried out following the conclusion of the 14-day incubation period.”

        * * *

        Update (0855ET): President Trump has signed the $8.3 billion coronavirus aid package into law. Meanwhile, HHS Secretary Alex Azar said Friday that the production of facemasks is “completely on schedule.”

        • U.S. HEALTH SECRETARY AZAR SAYS PRODUCTION OF CORONAVIRUS TESTS IS COMPLETELY ON SCHEDULE

        In a statement, Trump added that he would travel to Mar a Lago over the weekend to meet with Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro. However, as Politico reported earlier, Trump has scrapped a trip to the CDC headquarters in Atlanta even as the number of confirmed cases in the US near 250.

        Meanwhile, the UK has reported another 48 cases bringing its total to 163.

        US has reported 14 deaths, all but one in the Seattle area.

        * * *

        Update (0850ET): Switzerland’s case total just hit 210, and it became the latest European nation to confirm its first death on Friday, joining the Netherlands. The small Alpine nation is said to be on the brink of a crisis, according to domestic officials.

        • SWISS HEALTH OFFICIAL SAYS THERE ARE 210 DIAGNOSED CASES OF CORONAVIRUS IN SWITZERLAND, 1 DEATH
        • SWITZERLAND IS ON THE BRINK OF AN EPIDEMIC: HEALTH OFFICIAL

        * * *

        Update (0840ET): France has reported another 2 virus-linked deaths, bringing its total to 9. It has confirmed another 154 cases, bringing total to 577 on Friday, France’s Health Ministry said.

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        Two new British Airways staff have also tested positive for the virus, according to the BBC.

        * * *

        Update (0823ET): The number of confirmed coronavirus caases around the world has topped 100k Friday morning. We’re seeing a few different numbers, but the total case count is 100,278, according to Johns Hopkins.

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        Of those, 55,694 have recovered and 3,404 have died.

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        It’s amazing how quickly the virus has spread.

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        Just 7 weeks ago, the global total was less than 250 cases, all in China, and almost all in the city of Wuhan. On Friday, Chinese officials confirmed that outside of Wuhan, the province of Hubei reported zero new cases for the first time in weeks, as Sky News pointed out.

        * * *

        Update (0820ET): UK health officials have confirmed a second virus-linked death, less than 24 hours after its first. The man reportedly died at Milton Keynes University Hospital in Buckinghamshire.

        Boris Johnson’s government on Friday managed to pass a £46 million in funding to battle the virus.

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        In other news, we just discovered this video circulating via Twitter, where an Iranian doctor on the country’s Influenza Committee said between 30% and 40% of Tehran’s population could be infected. That would be nearly 5 million people.

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        Here’s the latest “official” count: deaths, 124; cases, 4,747.

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        * * *

        Update (0810ET): Mike Pompeo was the featured guest on “Squawk Box” Friday morning, and when asked about China’s grandiose claims about its virus-fighting efforts, Pompeo replied that the Chinese deliberately delayed the sharing of data and other information that would have been of great benefit to the US in its effort to try to slow the coronavirus outbreak.

        • U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE POMPEO SAYS CHINA SHOULD HAVE SHARED CORONAVIRUS INFORMATION MORE QUICKLY -CNBC
        • POMPEO SAYS IMPERFECT CORONAVIRUS DATA FROM CHINA HAS PUT US BEHIND THE CURVE -CNBC
        • POMPEO SAYS U.S. IS WATCHING SUPPLY CHAINS VERY CLOSELY AMID CORONAVIRUS -CNBC

        As far as the CCP’s propaganda about the virus originating in the US…

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        The money quote from Pompeo:

        “The information that we got at the front end of this thing wasn’t perfect and has led us now to a place where much of the challenge we face today has put us behind the curve,” Pompeo said. “That’s not the way infectious disease doctors tell me it should work. It’s not the way America works with transparency and openness and the sharing of the information that needs to take place.”

        He added that it had been “incredibly frustrating” to work with the Chinese government to get the data on the coronavirus “which will ultimately be the solution to both getting the vaccine and attacking this risk.”

        * * *

        Update (0800ET): Russian state-run newswire RIA Novosti reports that all of the coronavirus cases confirmed in the country so far have been imported from Italy.

        It’s the latest sign of the growing frustration across Europe as the Netherlands has become the latest nation to confirm its first coronavirus-related death, as many accuse the Italian government of botching the response to the virus. By the way, the number of cases confirmed in the Netherlands is 128.

        Make no mistake: This is Moscow underhandedly accusing Rome of dropping the ball.

        Meanwhile, here’s a treat from China’s state media: A news anchor says the Chinese government is demanding “an apology” from the rest of the world for the “sacrifices” made by the Chinese people to blunt the impact of the virus on the rest of the world.

        https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

        Of course, the government has sought to suggest that the virus may have come from the US, even though government researchers have confirmed that the outbreak began in Wuhan.

        * * *

        Update (0727ET): Some new headlines are hitting out of Greece, noting that 14 new cases have been confirmed, bringing the total confirmed to 45.

        • GREEK HEALTH MINISTRY OFFICIAL SAYS ¬ GREECE HAS CONFIRMED 14 NEW CORONAVIRUS CASES
        • GREEK HEALTH MINISTRY OFFICIAL SAYS EXTENDS MEASURES IN THREE PELOPONNESE AREAS
        • TOTAL NUMBER OF CORONAVIRUS INFECTIONS IN GREECE HAVE RISEN TO 45

        Singapore has confirmed 13 new cases, its largest daily increase yet.

        • SINGAPORE CONFIRMS 13 NEW CORONAVIRUS CASES IN BIGGEST DAILY JUMP, INCLUDES SINGAPORE AIRLINES CABIN CREW MEMBER

        According to Channel News Asia, an English-language, Singapore-based media org, this brings the total number of cases in the city-state to 130 since its first case was confirmed on Jan. 23. Out of the new cases, nine are linked to the cluster involving a private dinner function at SAFRA Jurong on Feb 15. One patient is a SingTel employee, another is a Singapore Airlines cabin crew member, which the government is counting as an ‘imported’ case.

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        Another patient is a permanent resident who recently traveled to Germany and is believed to have contracted it there. The last case was in the same ward as an earlier patient.

        * * *

        Update (0710ET): CNBC’s Eunice Yoon reports that Chinese officials have announced that they will have a vaccine ready by April.

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        Yoon also highlighted a story in China’s state media calling out local governments for “faking” data like electricity usage to make it seem like China’s economy is more active than it is, something that we’ve also dawn attention to.

        https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

        As we said at the time: Why must the owner of the empty factory pretend the factory is operating? Because “Higher ups are watching the electricity numbers.” And why are higher ups watching the electricity numbers? Because they know that not only the rest of the world is also watching these numbers, but so is China’s population. 

        * * *

        It only took three months. In that time, the novel coronavirus has spread from a wet market (or, possibly, a specialized laboratory) in Wuhan, China to every continent except Antarctica. Thanks in large part to the EU’s unwillingness to restrict free movement within the Schengen Area, the virus has infected practically every state in Europe. Now that Serbia has confirmed its first case, as of Friday morning New York Time, Slovakia is the only remaining state in Europe that is virus-free. Even Vatican City, Andorra, San Marino and Luxembourg have reported at least one case.

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        Courtesy of WaPo

        At this point, the only continents that haven’t reported a pervasive spread of the virus are South America and Africa. But we suspect that will change in the coming days and weeks, once the virus has been given time to incubate. Worldwide, the number of confirmed cases is on the cusp of topping 100,000. At last count, we were at 98,704 cases worldwide, according to Johns Hopkins data.

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        Back in the US, health officials in Washington State, Oregon and California have all identified cases involving individuals who haven’t recently traveled, as we reported yesterday. These cases are a sign of “community spread” to a degree that officials have yet to truly ascertain. So far, the Trump administration has imposed travel restrictions directed at countries with the worst outbreaks, including China, Iran, Italy, and South Korea. The CDC has also warned travelers against visiting Japan right now. At last check, according to BNO, there are 234 cases in the US, if we include all the “presumptive” cases that have been announced.

        Officials announced the country’s 14th virus-linked death late Thursday and several states announced their first “presumptive” positives, including Maryland, which joined California, Florida and Washington in declaring states of emergency, or official public health emergencies (as in Fla.).

        Vice President Mike Pence on Thursday pledged federal aid to Washington State as all but one death has so far been recorded in the state (the other is the dead patient in California linked to the ‘Grand Princess’). 11 of the deaths have been recorded at EvergreenHealth Medical Center in Kirkland, near a nursing home where more than 10 patients and employees have already been confirmed infected.

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        In addition to the two new deaths announced late Thursday, five new cases were confirmed in the state, four of them among nursing home residents. The fifth case was reported in Snohomish County, the neighboring county that is also a part of suburban Seattle, and has recorded a handful of cases.

        Washington’s death toll from the coronavirus reached 13 on Thursday, driven by an outbreak at a nursing home in the Seattle suburbs, and the state’s overall number of infections rose to 75, according to CNN.

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        Courtesy of WaPo

        As the virus spreads across a Jewish community in New York’s Westchester County, Rabbi Reuven Fink, the rabbi at the Young Israel synagogue and allegedly the rabbi of Lawrence Garbuz, the New Rochelle lawyer who has become the ‘patient zero’ of Westchester County, has also been infected.

        According to the city department of health, 2,773 people – most of whom have recently returned from 1 of five countries – are under voluntary quarantine in the city, per the NYT.

        But the virus’s potential reach was underscored by a much larger number: The City Department of Health is keeping tabs on 2,773 New Yorkers currently in home isolation, most of them in self-quarantine, city officials said on Thursday.

        Most of those under self-quarantine have recently returned from the five countries where the outbreak has been most severe: China, Italy, Iran, South Korea and Japan, the New York City health commissioner, Dr. Oxiris Barbot, said.

        The two new patients confirmed in NYC are hospitalized and said to be ‘critically ill’.

        In South Korea, the site of the worst outbreak outside China, officials confirmed another 827 in two separate batches cases so far on Friday, bringing the total confirmed cases to 6,593. The Foreign Ministry publicly rebuked Japan for imposing a two-week mandatory quarantine for visitors from South Korea, and in apparent retaliation, the office has halted visa waivers for the Japanese in what the NYT described as “tit for tat” retaliation over the 14-day quarantine and other restrictions on travelers imposed by Japan.

        Offer a classic example of poetic justice, ten leaders of the cult cited as the ground-zero for the outbreak in South Korea – and who may soon face murder investigations for failing to take steps to contain the virus – have tested positive for the virus.

        Late Thursday, mainland China reported 143 new cases of coronavirus and 30 deaths for Thursday. On Wednesday, they reported 149 additional cases and 31 additional deaths on March 4, to bring the total cases in China to 80,552 and death toll to 3,042.

        As schools remain shut across Japan, Chiba Prefecture has reported two more cases, both men, according to Kyodo.

        Though the Pope has reportedly been tested for the coronavirus and confirmed negative, Vatican City, which has an official population of only 1,000 people, has reported its 1st case. Spokesman Matteo Bruni said the discovery was made on Thursday and that outpatient services in Vatican clinics had been suspended to sanitize the areas.

        More grim news: Officials in the Netherlands have confirmed their first coronavirus-linked death.

        Microsoft, Adidas and Lockheed Martin have joined Amazon, Facebook, Samsung, BMW and dozens of companies around the world that have reported cases among employees. In South Korea, Samsung has suspended operations at its smartphone factory in the small southeastern city of Gumi once again on Friday after another worker tested positive for coronavirus, a spokeswoman said. So far, six workers at the factory complex, where the company makes its top-of-the-line G20 smartphones and the Z Flip foldable phone, have been infected by the virus, prompting several temporary shutdowns.

        For the second week in a row, the virus has disrupted Friday prayers across the Middle East. Iran remains the epicenter of the largest outbreak in the region. Some 60,000 mosques were closed on Friday. Iran reported another 1,234 cases on Friday, bringing its total to 4,747, along with 107 deaths according to the official death toll (with ‘unofficial’ reports claiming more than 1,000 deaths).

        In India, the number of confirmed cases rose to 31 on Friday as schools were ordered closed across the capital of Delhi after the first case in the city was confirmed on Tuesday. The virus is forcing many Indians to miss out on Holi, one of India’s most important holidays.

        Interestingly enough, even as the Communist Party pushed remarks by a professional epidemiologist on Friday who said the number of new cases reported in Wuhan would soon fall to zero, western media shared a viral video of residents of the city shouting complaints at visiting government officials below.

        “Everything is fake!” shouted one resident, in a video clip that was shared on social media by People’s Daily, a state-run newspaper, which covered the government’s response to the heckling.

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        Tyler Durden

        Fri, 03/06/2020 – 20:36

      • Stop Calling It A "Stutter": Here Are Dozens Of Examples Of Biden's Dementia Symptoms
        Stop Calling It A “Stutter”: Here Are Dozens Of Examples Of Biden’s Dementia Symptoms

        Authored by Caitlin Johnstone via Medium.com,

        It’s very bizarre and dissonant how there are currently two separate and non-overlapping lines of criticism going on against the campaign of establishment-anointed Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden. There are the perfectly accurate criticisms regarding the right-wing, militaristic policy positions of the politician Joe Biden used to be, and then there are the equally accurate criticisms of Biden’s handlers and Democratic Party leadership for wheeling out the dementia-addled husk of a man he currently is to run for the world’s most powerful elected office.

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        These two debates do not interweave, because they are not relevant to one another. It doesn’t matter what political positions a dementia victim once had; what matters is taking care of him and keeping him away from hazards, like sharp objects and nuclear launch codes. It’s impossible to know what actual political convictions still remain held within a mind that can no longer lucidly string thoughts together anyway.

        I hate doing this. I hate repeatedly writing about the obvious and undeniable fact that an old man is exhibiting obvious and undeniable symptoms of incipient dementia. It isn’t fun, and it doesn’t feel good. But the alternative is laying down and allowing the Democratic party and its allied media to gaslight people into believing it’s not a thing, as they are doing currently.

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        If you do a live Twitter search for the word “stutter”, you will as of this writing see that word being tweeted multiple times per minute on the social media platform as Democrats scramble to defend Biden from people who are accurately highlighting the indisputable fact that the former vice president is showing signs of cognitive decline. In my interactions with Biden supporters over the last 24 hours I’ve had this irrelevant word suddenly start getting thrown at me, because narrative managers in the mainstream media and the Biden campaign have been aggressively promoting the talking point that Biden’s increasingly frequent neurological misfirings on the campaign trail are actually the result of a longstanding speech impediment.

        This is false. While it is true that Biden has periodically exhibited signs of a stutter, the inability to hold on to his own train of thought, forgetting where he is and who he’s with, grossly incorrect use of language, and inappropriate behavior are not symptoms of a stutter.

        Here is the Mayo Clinic’s list of symptoms for a stutter, also known as a stammer:

        • Difficulty starting a word, phrase or sentence

        • Prolonging a word or sounds within a word

        • Repetition of a sound, syllable or word

        • Brief silence for certain syllables or words, or pauses within a word (broken word)

        • Addition of extra words such as “um” if difficulty moving to the next word is anticipated

        • Excess tension, tightness, or movement of the face or upper body to produce a word

        • Anxiety about talking

        • Limited ability to effectively communicate

        Here is the Mayo Clinic’s list of dementia symptoms:

        • Memory loss, which is usually noticed by a spouse or someone else

        • Difficulty communicating or finding words

        • Difficulty with visual and spatial abilities, such as getting lost while driving

        • Difficulty reasoning or problem-solving

        • Difficulty handling complex tasks

        • Difficulty with planning and organizing

        • Difficulty with coordination and motor functions

        • Confusion and disorientation

        Clearly, the symptoms of the speech impediment are very distinct from the symptoms of a degenerative neurological disorder. What follows are dozens of examples suggesting the latter, most of which were compiled by the Twitter user @KoenSwinkels. You may be absolutely certain that Trump will not hesitate to highlight this growing mountain of evidence should Democratic Party leadership successfully install Biden as the nominee; in fact both Trump and his Fox News cheerleaders are doing so already.

        Joe Biden is Jeb Bush plus dementia. Trump will be far less charitable with his symptoms than I am here, and if he’s nominated the president will make certain this story dominates news headlines from the convention until November. Anyone who wants Trump out of office should fiercely oppose Biden’s nomination.

        1. “Make sure you have the record player on at night… make sure the kids hear words.”

        Everyone talked about Biden’s bizarre call for families to make use of an archaic audio technology in response to a debate question about slavery, and some criticized his paternalistic suggestion that black Americans need to be taught how to raise their children correctly, but hardly anyone made a fuss about the fact that his entire answer was also a rambling, incoherent word salad.

        It’s easy to overlook linguistic peculiarities when they’re spoken, so I made a verbatim transcript of Biden’s complete answer, exactly as he spoke it. There are no typos. Read it carefully, resisting the urge to mentally re-word it in order to make it make sense:

        “Well they have to deal with the — Look, there is institutional segregation in this country. And from the time I got involved I started dealing with that. Redlining. Banks. Making sure that we’re in a position where — Look, talk about education. I propose that what we take is those very poor schools, the Title 1 schools, triple the amount of money we spend from 15 to 45 billion a year. Give every single teacher a raise that equal raise to getting out — the sixty-thousand dollar level.

        “Number two: make sure that we bring into the help the — the student, the, the teachers deal with the problems that come from home. The problems that come from home. We need — We have one school psychologist for every fifteen hundred kids in America today. It’s crazy. The teachers are reca — Now, I’m married to a teacher. My deceased wife is a teacher. They have every problem coming to them. We have make sure that every single child does in fact have three, four, and five year-olds go to school — school, not daycare. School. We bring social workers into homes of parents to help them deal with how to raise their children. It’s not that they don’t wanna help, they don’t want — they don’t know quite what to do. Play the radio, make sure the television, the — ‘scuse me, make sure you have the record player on at night, the-the-the-the phone, make sure the kids hear words. A kid coming from a very poor school, a very poor background, will hear four million words fewer spoken by the time they get there.”

        Compare this muddle-headed mess, and all the following subsequent examples, to the crisp, forceful way Biden used to speak:

        Or even just a few years ago:

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        2. “We hold these truths to be self-evident. All men and women created by the, go, you know the, you know the thing.”

        3. “Super Thursday”

        4. “I’m a Democratic candidate for the United States Senate. Look me over, if you like what you see help out, if not vote for the other Bi- gimme a look though okay?”

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        Fact check: Biden has not been a candidate for the United States Senate in a great many years, and is in fact running for the presidency.

        5. “Alright Chuck!”

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        Fact check: Chris. Chris Wallace.

        6. “Right here in the state of North South Carolina.”

        Fact check: Not a state.

        7. Randomly biting his wife’s finger.

        Fact check: Don’t do that, Joe.

        8. Worked with Deng Xiaoping, who died 23 years ago, on the Paris Climate Accord during the Obama administration.

        9. “Poor kids are just as bright and just as talented as white kids.”

        10. Whatever the hell this is.

        11. We’ll increase healthcare premiums and make sure care is not quality, only affordable.

        12. “Look, fat, look, here’s the deal.”

        13. “My deceased son was the Attorney General of the United States.”

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        Beau Biden was only the Attorney General of Delaware.

        14. Being aggressive and inappropriate with Iraq war veterans, wrongly insinuating that his son died in the war.

        US veterans recently confronted Biden over his support for the Iraq invasion, one saying “My friends are dead because of your policies.”

        “So’s my son,” Biden replied. “He was in Iraq, okay? For a year. Not that it matters, right?”

        “I’m not going after your son,” the veteran said.

        “You better not,” Biden replied.

        Biden’s son was in Iraq from 2008 to 2009. He died in 2015, of cancer.

        15. This incoherent word salad.

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        Here’s a transcript of an answer Biden gave to a question at a town hall. Read through it, resisting the urge to mentally revise it into something more coherent:

        “And so I was saying that, and what they turned around and said, Joe Biden said, in effect, they said, that Joe Biden said that what he was told, that what, that what the white supremacists argue, that we have no problem, that our, our, our basic English jurisprudential system is not the problem. The problem is those countries like Africa and Asia and those places, they’re the reason why we have all these problems. So they turn it around to make it sound like that, and by the way, the title of the article is, was, is the Washington Post ‘The Deceptively (indecipherable) of Joe Biden Singles, Signals What Is Coming’ and that is that’s a whole bunch of lies. The generic point I’m making here is that, what has happened is that, I know we’re going to get in to, whomever the nominee is of the Democratic Party, is going to have a plethora of lies told about him or her, and misrepresentations and this went on the internet, this edited article, it got retweeted by some press people and then they realized it was edited to make it look like something not… white supremacists, see, Biden’s acknowledging that the problem here is that that all those folks, all those minority folks are the problem. And so, in essence. And so they corrected, they corrected. You’re going to see a lot more of it. You’re going to see a lot more of not only my statements being taken out of context, and lied about, or altered, you’re going to see whomever the Democratic nominee is because that’s how this guy operates. Now. Whether or not I can win?”

        16. “We choose truth over facts.”

        17. “150 million people have been killed since 2007 when Bernie voted to exempt the gun manufacturers from liability.”

        This would be about half the population of the United States. Pretty sure that would’ve made bigger headlines.

        18. Confusing Theresa May with Margaret Thatcher.

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        19. Confusing Angela Merkel with Margaret Thatcher.

        20. “You’re a lying dog-faced pony soldier.”

        21. Rambling confused gibberish, including saying Robert F. Kennedy and Martin Luther King Jr were assassinated in the late 70s.

        Both men were assassinated in 1968.

        22. Fix the problem of violence against women by “punching at it and punching at it and punching at it.”

        23. Implementing a childcare tax credit would “put 720 million women back in the workforce.”

        This would be more than double the entire US population.

        24. Thought he was in Vermont when he was in New Hampshire.

        25. Confused New Hampshire and Nevada.

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        26. Said he was vice president during the Parkland shooting.

        Biden left the office of the vice presidency in January 2017. The Parkland shooting was February 2018.

        27. Said 1976 when he meant 2014.

        28. Said he’s looking forward to “appointing the first African American woman to the United States Senate.”

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        Nobody “appoints” senators; they’re elected. The first African American woman in the US Senate took office in 1993.

        29. “Go to Joe 30330 and help me in this fight.”

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        Biden apparently received instructions from his team to tell debate viewers to text “Joe” to 30330, but these directions were too complicated for him. He wound up sending viewers to a random empty URL which was subsequently bought up by a Buttigieg supporter.

        30. Made, then dropped, claim that he was arrested in South Africa while trying to visit Nelson Mandela in prison.

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        31. “Clipping coupons at the stock market.”

        That’s not a thing, Joe.

        32. Confused his wife and his sister.

        33. Jill Biden’s face revealing a flash freakout when he starts forgetting what he’s saying.

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        34. Claimed he had the support of the “only” African American woman that had ever been elected to the senate, while the other one was standing on the stage with him.

        35. “Why why why why why why why!”

        36. Referred to Bernie Sanders as “the president”, then, still unable to remember his name, called him “my friend Vermont”.

        37. Also called Cory Booker “the president”.

        That’s it for now. Let me know if I missed any good ones; I’ll probably keep this updated with all the latest neurological misfirings until this discussion goes mainstream like it should already be.

        *  *  *

        Thanks for reading! The best way to get around the internet censors and make sure you see the stuff I publish is to subscribe to the mailing list for my website, which will get you an email notification for everything I publish. My work is entirely reader-supported, so if you enjoyed this piece please consider sharing it around, liking me on Facebook, following my antics on Twitter, checking out my podcast on either Youtube, soundcloud, Apple podcasts or Spotify, following me on Steemit, throwing some money into my hat on Patreon or Paypal, purchasing some of my sweet merchandise, buying my books Rogue Nation: Psychonautical Adventures With Caitlin Johnstone and Woke: A Field Guide for Utopia Preppers. For more info on who I am, where I stand, and what I’m trying to do with this platform, click here. Everyone, racist platforms excluded, has my permission to republish, use or translate any part of this work (or anything else I’ve written) in any way they like free of charge.

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        Tyler Durden

        Fri, 03/06/2020 – 20:25

      • With VIX Hitting 50, The Fed Must Now Step In Or A Catastrophic Crash Is Inevitable
        With VIX Hitting 50, The Fed Must Now Step In Or A Catastrophic Crash Is Inevitable

        With stocks tumbling, the VIX has, predictably, soared, briefly tipping above 50 intraday on Friday and last trading above 46, surpassing the levels hit during the Volmageddon in Feb 2018 and the highest level since the US credit rating downgrade in August 2011.

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        Just as dramatic is the accelerating VIX term structure inversion, which has pushed the curve to the steepest backwardation since the financial crisis…

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        … as spot has exploded higher even as the move in futures has been far more normal.

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        But while we have extensively discussed the ongoing equity crash where realized vol has soared, and has been a direct factor in the surge in implied volatility, there is another, potentially far more dire impact that the soaring VIX will have on the cross-asset universe, one that could potentially unleash a historic crash driven by the one pillar that has so far supported the US economy and stock market: credit.

        What sparked our concern was the latest note from SocGen’s Albert Edwards, who laments the ongoing collapse in yields, which he had fully predicted in the past as part of his Ice-Age thesis (at least until MMT steps in and blows yields up into the stratosphere as the monetary endgame begins) and is familiar to anyone who has followed Edwards’ writings over the years. We won’t spend much time on this part of his note, suffice to point out that the unprecedented plunge in yields may be just the beginning now that the Japanification of the US has begun in earnest, and that we are nearing that tipping point for yields beyond which further downside becomes a negative for risk assets as it no longer stimulates equity buying in contravention to the Fed Model, or as Edwards puts it, “If Japan remains the template, much more downside lies ahead for the US .”

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        One final point on where Edwards see stocks headed to if he indeed right, and further yield declines turn negative for risk:

        The lesson from the recent landmark move in the 30y US T-Bond yield below the equity dividend yield is simple. If we are right and US 30y yield falls below zero, US PEs will contract from their lofty 19x forward earnings peak seen recently, especially in a likely recession. Try 8x instead at the bottom of the next recession and see where that takes us!

        Shifting attention from stocks to credit, this is where things more interesting.

        Addressing the massive credit bubble that was built up over the past decade on the back of record cheap debt, and where trillions in BBB-rated issuance was used to repurchase stock pushing stocks to mindblowing levels even as most investors pulled money from the market for the past several years, Edwards reminds us that “almost every major supranational economic organisation, including the OECD, IMF and BIS, has warned that the huge build-up of US corporate debt is the Achilles Heel of the US economy – the new credit bubble to replace the mortgage-backed securities bubble of the 2000s. This Zero Hedge article for example, highlights a recent IMF report that some 20% of US companies are vulnerable to default or bankruptcy in the next recession – link. The surprise to many, such as myself, has been the complacency of the corporate bond market in the face of the sky high corporate debt ratios (see chart below).”

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        Edwards then highlights a theory proposed by his SocGen colleague, Andrew Lapthorne, explaining the complacency in the corporate bond market despite companies loading their balance sheets up to the eyeballs with debt, one which brings us to the punchline of why the surge in VIX may soon result in a shockwave that topples the record US credit bubble. “He notes the equivalence of corporate bond spreads and measures of equity volatility (see chart below). This is not just a spurious correlation in the sense that recessions could cause both series to surge independently. Andrew believes there is a direct causal relationship from low levels of equity vol directly to tight corporate bond spreads.“

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        In other words, SocGen’s theory is that the ultra low VIX of the past few years was the necessary and sufficient condition permitting record low yields:

        Andrew says that credit models such as Merton’s ‘distance to default’ and Moody’s KMV models suck in equity volatility and spit out the appropriate credit spreads (see this BoE analysis – link). It is low equity vol encouraged by continual Fed interventions and the market’s belief in the continued Fed Put that has sustained low corporate bond spreads, depressed defaults and allowed companies to borrow excessively.

        Of course, until just two weeks ago, the equity market had remained at or close to all-time highs despite accelerating weakness in the economy, as Edwards shows in the chart below.

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        And echoing an argument we have made repeatedly in the past, to the extent that the Fed’s recent monetary largesse (or “Not-QE” as most people know it) has kept an over-valued equity market at or close to record highs, Edwards claims that it is the Fed that directly and explicitly suppressed equity market volatility.

        To the uninitiated, measures of equity market volatility tend to be low while a market is rising, but spike up sharply when the market declines. As the saying goes “the market rises on foot, but descends in the elevator”.

        The relationship between high stock prices and low yields (for whatever reason) has been a reflexive one adding further complexity to the causal link: in any case, to the extent that a buoyant equity market has suppressed corporate bond spreads, despite balance sheets groaning with debt, companies have been able to access funds they would never have been allowed to do in more normal times, the SocGen strategist points out, or as he puts it “Low vol and low interest rates misallocate resources.” That is why, as the next chart shows, there is a direct causal relationship between rising equity vol  and defaults. The markets can break a company even if it is in a position to maintain its coupon payments.

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        The chart above is among the reasons why we, along with many commentators, highlight that the investment grade universe of corporate bonds is now majority populated by the lowest BBB grade bonds. It is also why Edwards shows in his work that the Russell 2000 group of smaller companies has the highest levels of leverage of all the US quoted sectors: “that is why we highlight the huge retail flows of funds into corporate bond vehicles. That is why we highlight the imbalance  between the tradability of corporate bond investment vehicles and their underlying assets.”

        In short: by suppressing VIX, the Fed’s visible hand has created a credit bubble.  And now the VIX has exploded to levels seen just once in the past decade.

        What happens next? Here, Edwards’ imagination about the coming devstation is – as usual – without parallel:

        Just wait until the first corporate bond fund is forced to “gate” their fund as redemptions soar. You will then hear a loud sucking sound coming out of the whole corporate bond mutual fund and ETF complex. This is a surely a flow of funds disaster waiting to happen.

        He is right: the growing liquidity mismatch among investment funds, and the creeping “gates” among funds holding on to illiquid paper, is precisely the reason why last July we wrote that there is a “New, Ticking Time Bomb In The Market.“

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        Back to Edwards who continues his apocalyptic tour de force, warning that “this time around things are much, much worse than 2008, particularly as the whole economy effectively cantilevers off multiple financial market bubbles. For when the equity market begins its long descent in the elevator and Vix begins to spike upwards, as it has begun to do in recent days (see chart below), we would expect corporate bond spreads to eventually explode higher.”

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        Said otherwise, “companies that are already likely struggling with the profit-crushing effects of the coronavirus will see a cascade of defaults and bankruptcies and the economy will be plunged into deep deflationary recession. The coronavirus will be blamed, but it is the tottering pyramid of financial cards built on sand, constructed by the Fed, that is to blame. It’s the Fed’s fault.“

        We couldn’t agree more.

        * * *

        And just in case anyone skipped right to the conclusion, here it is in one sentence and one chart: unless the Fed manages to hammer the VIX as it always has in the past decade, and puts the “coronapanic” genie back in its bottle, the credit bubble – the biggest ever – is about to burst and wipe out the global economy in the process.

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        Tyler Durden

        Fri, 03/06/2020 – 20:20

      • Trump Promotes Freedom Caucus Leader Mark Meadows To Chief Of Staff, Sends Mick Mulvaney To Northern Ireland
        Trump Promotes Freedom Caucus Leader Mark Meadows To Chief Of Staff, Sends Mick Mulvaney To Northern Ireland

        In the middle of a rapidly escalating pandemic, President Trump has finally decided to fill that chief of staff slot that’s technically been vacant since John Kelly left at the end of 2018.

        Mick Mulvaney has been serving as acting chief of staff while also leading the critical Office of Management and Budget (OMB). But many have gotten used to him as chief of staff, a far more visible role where Mulvaney has nevertheless suffered a handful of embarrassing gaffes, despite his overall competence performance. Mulvaney also served as head of the CFPB until December 2018.

        However, after more than a year with Mulvaney in the acting role, Trump has apparently decided to appoint North Carolina Congressman and Freedom Caucus leader Mark Meadows, long rumored as a potential chief of staff candidate, to the position in a series of tweets sent at 8pmET on a Friday.

        For whatever reason (perhaps because rumors that Mulvaney has somehow displeased Trump are true), Mulvaney is being shipped off to Belfast as the US Special Envoy for Northern Ireland.

        Trump made the announcement on Twitter:

        “I am pleased to announce that Congressman Mark Meadows will become White House Chief of Staff. I have long known and worked with Mark, and the relationship is a very good one…I want to thank Acting Chief Mick Mulvaney for having served the Administration so well. He will become the United States Special Envoy for Northern Ireland. Thank you!”

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        Notably, Meadows will get the full title, no “acting” which Mulvaney allegedly kept so he could earn the highest salary of his many roles (that of head of the OMB).

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        This caps off a busy day for Trump.

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        It wouldn’t be a Trump twitter firing if the person being fired didn’t find out at the same time as everyone else…we look forward to Mulvaney telling the world how the secret service showed up at his house in the middle of dinner and told him to pack his bags and grab his passport.

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        Whatever the reason for this firing (was it a mix of tension-induced panic and rage?, we’re sure we’ll read the ‘full story’ this weekend in the NYT or Washington Post.


        Tyler Durden

        Fri, 03/06/2020 – 20:17

      • MbS Arrests Top Royals On 'Treason' At Moment World's Attention On Coronavirus
        MbS Arrests Top Royals On ‘Treason’ At Moment World’s Attention On Coronavirus

        A huge development out of Saudi Arabia late Friday via the Wall Street Journal which reports Saudi authorities have detained two prominent royals close to the throne — namely, the ageing King Salman’s brother, Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz al Saud, and Prince Mohammed bin Nayef bin Abdulaziz al Saud (often referred to as MBN).

        “The Saudi royal court accused the two men of plotting a coup to unseat the king and crown prince, according to people familiar with the situation,” WSJ reports. One of MBN’s brothers, Nawaf, was also reported to be arrested.

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        Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, right. Getty Images.

        Black-clad and masked commandos raided the homes of the two men Friday morning on charges of treason, in what’s being widely interpreted as part of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s (MbS) broader “purge” of potential powerful rivals and centers of influence, which first began in 2017 when scores of princes and top officials were locked up in the Riyadh Ritz-Carlton.

        Perhaps entirely to be expected, Saudi authorities gave no details or evidence of the alleged coup attempt even though a “treason” conviction means they face execution, as the WSJ notes further:

        The two men who potentially had once been in line for the throne are now under threat of lifetime imprisonment or execution, said people familiar with the situation. The details of the alleged coup attempt couldn’t be learned.

        Crucially both Prince Ahmed and MBN previously spent time as minister of the interior, a very powerful post with direct oversight over troops and Saudi intelligence.

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        Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz. File image via Middle East Monitor.

        Bin Nayef, it must be remembered, had initially been in line to be king before being stripped of his powers as Interior Minister in 2017 and King Salman declaring his son MbS heir to the throne.

        Following the state-sanctioned (and no doubt MbS-ordered) murder and dismemberment of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Oct. 2018, any drastic or aggressive consolidation of power related action out of MbS had cooled significantly for a while compared to the period of the near daily headlines coming out of the kingdom in 2017 through early 2018 amid the crackdown.

        Though political and business leaders in the West essentially shunned MbS at major public events for much of the year following Khashoggi’s death, bin Salman was quietly “rehabilitated” by the elites and it’s recently seemed ‘business as usual’. 

        It appears MbS is now once again going back on the offensive, perhaps also given the world’s attention is now focused far away from the crown prince’s political machinations as the Coronavirus fast becomes a global pandemic.  


        Tyler Durden

        Fri, 03/06/2020 – 20:05

      • Astronomers Detect Largest Explosion In The History Of The Universe Since The Big Bang Itself
        Astronomers Detect Largest Explosion In The History Of The Universe Since The Big Bang Itself

        Authored by Aaron Kesel via TheMindUnleashed.com,

        Astronomers in Perth, Australia recently detected and observed the largest explosion ever found in the universe since the Big Bang, according to a study published in the Astrophysics Journal.

        “We’ve seen outbursts in the centers of galaxies before but this one is really, really massive,” said Curtin University professor Melanie Johnston-Hollitt.

        “And we don’t know why it’s so big. But it happened very slowly—like an explosion in slow motion that took place over hundreds of millions of years.”

        Researchers at the Curtin University International Centre for Radio Astronomy were observing the distant galaxy cluster Ophiuchus when they detected a huge explosion at the center of a supermassive black hole, approximately 390 million light-years from Earth. According to scientists, the explosion released five times more energy than the big bang, Science Daily reported.

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        In fact, the explosion was so massive that it blew a hole in the cluster plasma (super-heated gas) surrounding the supermassive black hole and also broke the previous record-holder—a cluster known by the designation MS 0735+74.

        One author of the study, Dr. Simona Giacintucci who works at the Naval Research Laboratory in the U.S., compared the explosion to the eruption of Mount St. Helens in 1980, in which the top of the mountain was completely blown off.

        “The difference is that you could fit 15 Milky Way galaxies in a row into the crater this eruption punched into the cluster’s hot gas,” she said.

        X-ray telescopes previously detected a hole in the black hole’s cluster plasma, but astronomers originally discarded the theory that it could have been caused by an energetic explosion because the outburst was believed to be too massive.

        “People were skeptical because the size of outburst,” Johnston-Hollitt said. “But it really is that. The Universe is a weird place.”

        “This object was actually observed with the Chandra X-ray telescope by a previous team and they saw this bubble in the hot X-ray plasma in the centre of this galaxy cluster, and they said, ‘Well, this can’t be from one of these energetic outputs because it would be enormous; the scale would be unthinkable’. So, they dismissed that possibility,” explained Prof Johnston-Hollitt, who directs the MWA. “But we went back and we observed with low-frequency radio telescopes and discovered that this cavity is filled with radio plasma.”

        The scientists realized what they discovered when they observed the Ophiuchus cluster with radio telescopes. Then they saw that the radio data matched the x-ray data, confirming a gigantic expulsion of energy from the cluster.

        In total, four telescopes were used to detect and confirm the eruption. Those instruments were NASA’s X-ray Observatory, ESA’s XMM-Newton, the Murchison Widefield Array (MWA) in Western Australia, and the Giant Metrewave Radio Telescope (GMRT) in India.

        Johnston-Hollitt, who directs the MWA, compared their discovery to archeologists uncovering the first dinosaur bones. She further stated that with new tools like low-frequency radio telescopes, astronomers can “dig” deeper into space and uncover unusual discoveries like this which teach us about the universe and its history.

        Johnston-Hollitt also pointed out that studying the universe at different wavelengths will continue to uncover never-before-seen phenomenas like this one.

        “We made this discovery with Phase 1 of the MWA, when the telescope had 2048 antennas pointed towards the sky,” she said.

        “We’re soon going to be gathering observations with 4096 antennas, which should be ten times more sensitive. I think that’s pretty exciting.”


        Tyler Durden

        Fri, 03/06/2020 – 19:45

      • Another 'Nightmare At Sea': 21 Cruise Ship Passengers & Crew Off San Francisco Test Positive For Covid-19
        Another ‘Nightmare At Sea’: 21 Cruise Ship Passengers & Crew Off San Francisco Test Positive For Covid-19

        Update (1830ET): As state and federal officials scramble to find a place for the ‘Grand Princess’ cruise ship to dock, Vice President Pence has announced Friday afternoon that 21 people aboard the Grand Princess – 19 crew and 2 passengers – have tested positive for Covid-19.

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        24 tested negative.

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        The testing is ongoing. Between crew and passengers, there are more than 3,500 people aboard the ship.

        During an interview shortly before the numbers were announced, President Trump said he wanted the passengers to remain on the ship because he doesn’t want to see the total US case numbers ‘double’ as soon as it docks.

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        * * *

        It’s like the world’s most horrifying case of de ja vu. A cruise ship carrying 3,500 passengers and crew (2,700 passengers, roughly 800 crew) is floating listlessly in the waters off San Francisco after Cali Gov. Gavin Newsom barred it from docking in the Bay Area city, which reported its first two “presumptive” cases just last night.

        California officials on Thursday confirmed that four others who traveled during a previous voyage of the ship have been sickened, and another passenger died in California, becoming the first US death outside the Seattle area earlier this week. The 71-year-old man from Sacramento was said to have had other underlying health issues. Two of the four passengers mentioned above are among the patients who have been hospitalized with the virus in Northern California.

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        The other two have been asked to self-quarantine at home.

        A military helicopter delivered test kits to the ship on Thursday after reports claimed 35 passengers had shown suspicious symptoms. Newsom has said he won’t allow the ship to dock until its passengers have all been “properly assessed.” As of last night, officials had identified 100 people as priorities for testing, and as President Trump said during a press conference Friday morning as he signed the $8.3 billion aid package into law, people are being tested “as we speak.” The results from the first batch of tests are expected Friday afternoon.

        Another American passenger who traveled with the other five during the prior voyage in question told the BBC that she and her husband had fallen ill after returning home, but hadn’t given it much thought until reading about the passenger who died. The two complained that they “couldn’t get a straight answer” about how to get tested.

        “They’re telling us to stay home, but nobody told me until yesterday to stay home,” she said.

        “We were in Sacramento, we were in Martinez, we were in Oakland. We took a train home from the cruise. I really hope that we’re negative so nobody got infected.”

        Of course, the cruise ship situation immediately brings to mind the ‘Diamond Princess’, another ship, owned by the same Carnival Cruise subsidiary, that was for weeks home to the largest outbreak outside China, eventually, just over 700 cases were confirmed among its passengers and crew, and several governments, including the US, evacuated citizens from a quarantine overseen by the Japanese government. Six people eventually died. Several passengers have died, and the Japanese and the State Department have been criticized over their handling of the situation.


        Tyler Durden

        Fri, 03/06/2020 – 19:24

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