• These Are The 5 Most Common Cybersecurity Mistakes
  These Are The 5 Most Common Cybersecurity Mistakes

  Cyber attacks are becoming more prevalent with increasingly damaging outcomes, presenting new cybersecurity risks to users.

  But in spite of the ever-evolving threat landscape, many of the best defenses remain the same. This includes the basics like creating strong passwords and avoiding malicious links. Yet often, people take unnecessary risks due to convenience, among other factors.

  This graphic, via Visual Capitalist’s Niccolo Conte, shows the top cybersecurity mistakes in 2023, based on data from Proofpoint.

  

  The Most Common Mistakes Made by Users

  Below, we rank the most common risky actions that people made online in 2023, based on a survey of 7,500 end users across 15 countries:

  

  Overall, 71% of respondents said they made a cybersecurity mistake, with the vast majority doing so knowingly.

  As we can see, the most common error was using a work device for personal activities followed by reusing or sharing a password. These actions were shown to be motivated by convenience, time-saving benefits, or urgency across users.

  Ranking in third was connecting to WiFi networks in public spaces without using a virtual private network (VPN). This presents risks, because when a user connects to public WiFi, it exposes them to unsecured networks. These networks allow cybercriminals to intercept sensitive information, such as login credentials and personal messages.

  By using a VPN, it prevents malicious actors from stealing personal information through creating an encrypted tunnel that hides a user’s location and other personal data.

   

  Top Cybersecurity Risks, According to Professionals

  While the above data deals with the most common risks taken by users, the same report by Proofpoint also highlights the professional view around what risks are actually the most dangerous.

  According to a survey of 1,050 security professionals, clicking on links or downloading attachments from someone that they don’t know was considered the most risky action users could take. By downloading an infected file, it exposes users to computer viruses and malware that mine a computer or device for personal data.

  In addition, reusing passwords posed the second-highest security threat, followed by accessing inappropriate websites.

   

  Overall, there is a strong degree of overlap between the top cybersecurity mistakes and the most common risks taken by users. In this way, it highlights how many respondents may be unaware of the scale of risk they expose themselves to, and the importance of using the basic tools to avoid financial losses and unwanted outcomes.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/23/2024 – 02:45

• The Eurocrats Fear That Fico's Attempted Assassination Will Influence Next Month's Elections
  The Eurocrats Fear That Fico’s Attempted Assassination Will Influence Next Month’s Elections

  Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

  European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned last week that Russia will ramp up its meddling ahead of next month’s parliamentary elections, which preceded European Commission Vice President Vera Jourova assessing that they’d be a test of the bloc’s disinformation resilience. This speculation is nothing new, but what’s different this time around is that the attempted assassination of Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico will be on every voter’s mind, thus likely influencing the outcome.

  The preceding hyperlinked analysis argued that fake news was responsible for radicalizing the pro-Ukrainian suspect into thinking that shooting his premier was a legitimate form of protest against what he’d been misled by the media into believing was his “pro-Russian dictator with blood on his hands”. This black swan event might have served the short-term interests of that leader’s many enemies, but the blowback could be considerable if it leads to a conservative landslide during next month’s elections.

  Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban predicted that the upcoming vote will influence the direction of war and peace in Europe, and while the European Parliament admittedly can’t do much in terms of shaping the NATO-Russian proxy war in Ukraine, it could still exert positive pressure if conservatives win. It’s with that in mind that Eurocrats like von der Leyen and Jourova are fearmongering about Russian meddling since they want to preemptively discredit this potential outcome.

  To be sure, the first of those two had no idea that an assassination attempt would be made against Fico the day after she shared her earlier mentioned warning, but the second’s assessment about the upcoming elections being a test of the bloc’s disinformation resilience came some days later. Instead of speaking vaguely about alleged Russian meddling, the Eurocrats are now honing their information warfare narrative to muddle the conversation about Fico’s attempted assassination and its political aftermath.

  

  The targeted audience is the unclear number of on-the-fence voters who might usually lean liberal but have recently begun to sympathize with some conservative positions on issues like Ukraine. Last week’s incident was driven by the liberal media’s fake news about the Slovak leader, which might influence some of these voters to give the more narratively responsible conservatives their support. In an attempt to desperately prevent this, the Eurocrats want them think that it would be doing Russia’s bidding.  

  If the European Parliamentary elections have absolutely no effect on anything, then they wouldn’t care who votes for whom, but the outcome will clearly at the very least have a major impact on popular perceptions and could lead to cascading consequences like more anti-war protests across the bloc. It’s for this reason that the Eurocrats and their media allies, including those being promoted by state-run Ukrainian outlets like this one here, are pushing the abovementioned information warfare narrative.

  The growing gap between liberals and conservatives over Ukraine, which is foreign policy issue that Fico was most closely associated with, is naturally occurring as a result of their polar opposite worldviews and not due to Russian meddling. It’s so emotive and significant that some from both sides have become single-issue voters who’ll cast their ballots purely based on candidates’ positions towards this. Attempting to discredit this trend as being due to Russian meddling is disrespectful to democracy.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/23/2024 – 02:00

• From COVID To Campus Protests: How The Police-State Muzzles Free-Speech
  From COVID To Campus Protests: How The Police-State Muzzles Free-Speech

  Authored by John & Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

  “Politicians of both parties want to use the power of government to silence their foes. Some in the university community seek to drive it from their campuses. And an entire generation of Americans is being taught that free speech should be curtailed as soon as it makes someone else feel uncomfortable.”

  – William Ruger, “Free Speech Is Central to Our Dignity as Humans”

  The police state does not want citizens who know their rights.

  

  Nor does the police state want citizens prepared to exercise those rights.

  This year’s graduates are a prime example of this master class in compliance. Their time in college has been set against a backdrop of crackdowns, lockdowns and permacrises ranging from the government’s authoritarian COVID-19 tactics to its more recent militant response to campus protests.

  Born in the wake of the 9/11 attacks, these young people have been raised without any expectation of privacy in a technologically-driven, mass surveillance state; educated in schools that teach conformity and compliance; saddled with a debt-ridden economy on the brink of implosion; made vulnerable by the blowback from a military empire constantly waging war against shadowy enemies; policed by government agents armed to the teeth ready and able to lock down the country at a moment’s notice; and forced to march in lockstep with a government that no longer exists to serve the people but which demands they be obedient slaves or suffer the consequences.

  And now, when they should be empowered to take their rightful place in society as citizens who fully understand and exercise their right to speak truth to power, they are being censored, silenced and shut down.

  Consider what happened recently in Charlottesville, Va., when riot police were called in to shut down campus protests at the University of Virginia staged by students and members of the community to express their opposition to the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Palestine.

  As the local newspaper reported, “State police sporting tactical gear and riot shields moved in on the demonstrators, using pepper spray and sheer force to disperse the group and arrest the roughly 15 or so at the camp, where for days students, faculty and community members had sang songs, read poetry and painted signs in protest of Israel’s ongoing war in the Palestinian territory of Gaza.”

  What a sad turn-about for an institution which was founded as an experiment in cultivating an informed citizenry by Thomas Jefferson, the author of the Declaration of Independence, champion of the Bill of Rights, and the nation’s third president.

  Unfortunately, the University of Virginia is not unique in its heavy-handed response to what have been largely peaceful anti-war protests. According to the Washington Post, more than 2300 people have been arrested for taking part in similar campus protests across the country.

  These lessons in compliance, while expected, are what comes of challenging the police state.

  What was unexpected were the campus protests themselves.

  For those of us who came of age in the 1960s, college campuses were once the bastion of free speech, awash with student protests, sit-ins, marches, pamphleteering, and other expressive acts showing our displeasure with war, the Establishment and the status quo.

  Contrast that with college campuses today, which have become breeding grounds for compliant citizens and bastions of censorship, trigger warnings, microaggressions, and “red light” speech policies targeting anything that might cause someone to feel uncomfortable, unsafe or offended.

  Free speech can certainly not be considered “free” when expressive activities across the nation are being increasingly limited, restricted to so-called free speech zones, or altogether blocked.

  Remember, the First Amendment gives every American the right to “petition his government for a redress of grievances.”

  There was a time in this country, back when the British were running things, that if you spoke your mind and it ticked off the wrong people, you’d soon find yourself in jail for offending the king.

  Reacting to this injustice, when it was time to write the Constitution, America’s founders argued for a Bill of Rights, of which the First Amendment protects the right to free speech. James Madison, the father of the Constitution, was very clear about the fact that he wrote the First Amendment to protect the minority against the majority.

  What Madison meant by minority is “offensive speech.”

  Unfortunately, we don’t honor that principle as much as we should today. In fact, we seem to be witnessing a politically correct philosophy at play, one shared by both the extreme left and the extreme right, which aims to stifle all expression that doesn’t fit within their parameters of what they consider to be “acceptable” speech.

  There are all kinds of labels put on such speech—it’s been called politically incorrect speech, hate speech, offensive speech, and so on—but really, the message being conveyed is that you don’t have a right to express yourself if certain people or groups don’t like or agree with what you are saying.

  Hence, we have seen the caging of free speech in recent years, through the use of so-called “free speech zones” on college campuses and at political events, the requirement of speech permits in parks and community gatherings, and the policing of online forums.

  Clearly, this elitist, monolithic mindset is at odds with everything America is supposed to stand for.

  Indeed, we should be encouraging people to debate issues and air their views. Instead, by muzzling free speech, we are contributing to a growing underclass of Americans—many of whom have been labeled racists, rednecks and religious bigots—who are being told that they can’t take part in American public life unless they “fit in.”

  Remember, the First Amendment acts as a steam valve. It allows people to speak their minds, air their grievances and contribute to a larger dialogue that hopefully results in a more just world. When there is no steam valve to release the pressure, frustration builds, anger grows and people become more volatile and desperate to force a conversation.

  The attempt to stifle certain forms of speech is where we go wrong.

  In fact, the U.S. Supreme Court has held that it is “a bedrock principle underlying the First Amendment…that the government may not prohibit the expression of an idea simply because society finds the idea offensive or disagreeable.” For example, it is not a question of whether the Confederate flag represents racism but whether banning it leads to even greater problems, namely, the loss of freedom in general.

  Along with the constitutional right to peacefully (and that means non-violently) assemble, the right to free speech allows us to challenge the government through protests and demonstrations and to attempt to change the world around us—for the better or the worse—through protests and counterprotests.

  If citizens cannot stand out in the open and voice their disapproval of their government, its representatives and its policies without fearing prosecution, then the First Amendment with all its robust protections for free speech, assembly and the right to petition one’s government for a redress of grievances is little more than window-dressing on a store window—pretty to look at but serving little real purpose.

  After all, living in a representative republic means that each person has the right to take a stand for what they think is right, whether that means marching outside the halls of government, wearing clothing with provocative statements, or simply holding up a sign.

  That’s what the First Amendment is supposed to be about: it assures the citizenry of the right to express their concerns about their government to their government, in a time, place and manner best suited to ensuring that those concerns are heard.

  Unfortunately, through a series of carefully crafted legislative steps and politically expedient court rulings, government officials have managed to disembowel this fundamental freedom, rendering it with little more meaning than the right to file a lawsuit against government officials.

  In more and more cases, the government is declaring war on what should be protected political speech whenever it challenges the government’s power, reveals the government’s corruption, exposes the government’s lies, and encourages the citizenry to push back against the government’s many injustices.

  Indeed, there is a long and growing list of the kinds of speech that the government considers dangerous enough to red flag and subject to censorship, surveillance, investigation and prosecution: hate speech, conspiratorial speech, treasonous speech, threatening speech, inflammatory speech, radical speech, anti-government speech, extremist speech, etc.

  Clearly, the government has no interest in hearing what “we the people” have to say.

  Yet if Americans are not able to peacefully assemble for expressive activity outside of the halls of government or on public roads on which government officials must pass, or on college campuses, the First Amendment has lost all meaning.

  If we cannot stand peacefully outside of the Supreme Court or the Capitol or the White House, our ability to hold the government accountable for its actions is threatened, and so are the rights and liberties that we cherish as Americans.

  And if we cannot proclaim our feelings about the government, no matter how controversial, on our clothing, or to passersby, or to the users of the world wide web, then the First Amendment really has become an exercise in futility.

  The source of the protest shouldn’t matter. The politics of the protesters are immaterial.

  To play politics with the First Amendment encourages a double standard that will see us all muzzled in the end.

  You don’t have to agree with someone to defend their freedoms.

  Responsible citizenship means being outraged at the loss of others’ freedoms, even when our own are not directly threatened. It means remembering that the prime function of any free government is to protect the weak against the strong. And it means speaking up for those with whom you might disagree.

  The Framers of the Constitution knew very well that whenever and wherever democratic governments had failed, it was because the people had abdicated their responsibility as guardians of freedom. They also knew that whenever in history the people rejected this responsibility, an authoritarian regime arose which eventually denied the people the right to govern themselves.

  The demons of our age—some of whom disguise themselves as politicians—delight in fomenting violence, sowing distrust and prejudice, and persuading the public to support tyranny disguised as patriotism.

  Overcoming the evils of our age will require us to stop marching in lockstep with the police state and start thinking—and speaking—for ourselves.

  It doesn’t matter how old you are or what your political ideology is: it’s our civic duty to make the government hear us—and heed us—using every nonviolent means available to us: picket, protest, march, boycott, speak up, sound off and reclaim control over the narrative about what is really going on in this country.

  The power elite has made their intentions clear: they will pursue and prosecute any and all words, thoughts and expressions that challenge their authority.

  As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, this is the final link in the police state chain.

  If ever there were a time for us to stand up for the right to speak freely, even if it’s freedom for speech we hate, the time is now.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 05/22/2024 – 23:40

• This Is What Hedge And Mutual Funds Did In Q1: Goldman's HF and MF Monitors
  This Is What Hedge And Mutual Funds Did In Q1: Goldman’s HF and MF Monitors

  Today Goldman published two of the bank’s most widely read periodic reports: the Hedge Fund Trend Monitor (available to pro subs here) and Mutual Fundamentals (also available here), which summarize the quarterly activity and flows of hedge and mutual funds, respectively. Both are available to pro subs in the usual place, but here are the key points from each report.

  Hedge Fund trend monitor
   
  1) PERFORMANCE: US equity long/short hedge funds have generated a solid +8% YTD return. The strong performance of popular hedge fund long positions has boosted hedge fund returns despite a recent short squeeze in popular shorted stocks. Goldman’s Hedge Fund VIP list of the most popular long positions (ticker: GSTHHVIP) has returned +16% YTD, outperforming the S&P 500 (+12%) and the equal-weight S&P 500 (+7%). The most shorted stocks (GSCBMSAL, +7% YTD) surged +25% in mid-May.

  

  2) LEVERAGE AND SHORT INTEREST: Hedge funds have modestly lifted net leverage alongside the broader market rally while maintaining record gross leverage. Concentrated short positions have been particularly volatile recently, causing funds to rotate out of their favorite longs to cover shorts. However, the most recent short squeeze fell shy of the recent experiences in 2021 and December 2023. Short interest for the median S&P 500 stock remains very low at 1.8% of float. Instead, funds continue to use macro products.

  

  3) HEDGE FUND VIPS: Mega-caps remain the most popular hedge fund long positions. AMZN, MSFT, META, GOOGL, NVDA continue to rank as the top five stocks in the VIP list this quarter, with AAPL joining the top six. The VIP list contains the 50 stocks that appear most often among the top 10 holdings of fundamental hedge funds. The basket has outperformed the S&P 500 in 60% of quarters since 2001 with an average quarterly excess return of 47 bp. 14 new constituents: ALIT, APP, DELL, DFS, GDDY, JPM, MU, NEE, SE, SN, VST, WDC, WIX, X.

  

  4) MEGA-CAPS AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE: Hedge funds trimmed positions in the mega-caps while adding to broader AI beneficiaries. Share price outperformance has supported the weight of the Magnificent 7 in hedge fund long portfolios, which stabilized at 13% during 1Q. AAPL was the exception where hedge funds incrementally added. In contrast, hedge funds added to winners across the entire AI universe, particularly in Phase 2 Infrastructure. MRVL, SNX, AES, LFUS are Infrastructure stocks with the largest increase in hedge fund popularity.

  

  5) SECTORS: Hedge funds continued to rotate toward cyclicals, with broad-based increases across Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Energy. DFS joined this quarter’s VIP list, as did JPM, and also joined BK and SPGI to screen among this quarter’s list of Rising Stars with the largest increase in hedge fund popularity. Soaring prices also lifted the weight of Semiconductor stocks in hedge fund long portfolios to a new record, at 6.5%. MRVL is the top Rising Star and MU entered our basket of favorite hedge fund long positions.

  

  Mutual Fundamentals
   
  1. PERFORMANCE: Mutual funds have delivered strong results YTD. 45% of large-cap mutual funds are outperforming their benchmarks YTD, compared with the historical average of 38%.

  

  Fund managers have grown increasingly bullish on US equities, with cash allocations falling to 1.5% and matching the lowest level on record.

  

  Nonetheless, active mutual funds have experienced $139 billion of outflows YTD.

  

  2. THEMES IN FOCUS: (1) MEGA-CAP TECH: Increasing benchmark weights and diversification restrictions mean that the average large-cap mutual fund was 660 bp underweight the Magnificent 7 in 1Q 2024, largely unchanged vs. last quarter. A net of 120 funds (25%) reduced their exposure to MSFT, the largest decline across the group.

  

  (2) AI: Despite the broadening of the AI trade across share prices, mutual fund managers generally avoided taking large tracking error on the theme. However, mutual funds lifted their exposure to Utilities to a new 10-year high.

  

  (3) CYCLICALS/DEFENSIVES: The average large-cap mutual fund maintained a 437 bp overweight in cyclical industries vs. the benchmark, which has benefited performance as investor confidence about economic growth drove Cyclicals to outperform Defensives (GSPUCYDE) by 4% YTD.

  

  3. SECTORS: The average large-cap mutual fund is currently most overweight Financials (+167 bp) and Industrials (+139 bp) and most underweight Info Tech (-341 bp).

  

  Relative to 4Q 2023, the average fund increased exposure most to Consumer Discretionary (+53 bp) and cut the most to Health Care (-42 bp) and Financials (-34 bp).

  

  4. STOCKS: Goldman has rebalanced its Mutual Fund Overweight (GSTHMFOW) and Mutual Fund Underweight (GSTHMFUW) baskets in this report. 12 new constituents in GSTHMFOW: JCI, GM, TRV, CAH, KDP, DASH, TTD, NET, LHX, PNC, GD, AMP.

  

  6 new constituents in GSTHMFUW: GE, HON, AMGN, UNP, DLR, TMO.

  

  Much more in the full reports available to pro subs (here and here)

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 05/22/2024 – 23:20

• Long-Wear, Noise-Canceling, And Wireless: How Earphones Damage Our Hearing
  Long-Wear, Noise-Canceling, And Wireless: How Earphones Damage Our Hearing

  Authored by Marina Zhang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  On Nov. 24, 2019, a new thread titled “AirPods causing tinnitus?” appeared on the Apple community forum page.

  

  The Apple user said that after using AirPods for a while, he noticed a high-pitched ringing in his ears that didn’t go away.

  According to him, he has always been highly protective of his hearing; he doesn’t listen to anything loud and always carries earplugs in case he encounters anything that could damage his hearing. But things only got worse.

  “Having said all that, now I notice that when I put my AirPods in my ears and have nothing playing, they emit a high pitched tone that I would say exactly replicates the tone of my tinnitus, leaving to me believe that the AirPods actually caused my tinnitus,” the user wrote.

  Since the thread was published in 2019, over 3,200 Apple users have responded with “Me too.”

  The introduction of Apple wireless earphones has had a noticeable effect on earphone use, with younger generations using them more than older generations, said Julie Prutsman, an audiologist and founder of the Sound Relief Hearing Center. For the past few years, she has seen an increasing number of younger people show up to her clinics with hearing loss and tinnitus.

  AirPods and other Apple earphones make up the majority of earphones used by teenagers today. In 2021, Apple earphones were ranked first in the American headphone and earphone market. A 2022 survey by Piper Sandler surveyed more than 7,000 teenagers and found that 72 percent owned AirPods.

  The audiologist told The Epoch Times that the root problem lies not with what earphones people use but with a common phenomenon: irresponsible earphone use. The convenient wireless and noise-canceling features, along with better sound quality, have further exacerbated people’s overuse.

  “It is becoming a real issue,” Ms. Prutsman said, “and unfortunately, they’re not educated about what can happen.”

  High ‘Dose’ and Prolonged Use

  The American Osteopathic Association estimates that 20 percent of teenagers today will experience hearing loss, partially due to their headphone and earphone use. A review published in the International Journal of Audiology found that about 6 percent to 60 percent of earphone users show symptoms of hearing loss, including hearing difficulties and tinnitus.

  At the same time, more and more youths are regularly using earphones. In February, a University of Michigan poll surveyed parents of 5-to-12-year-olds and found that two-thirds reported that their children use headphones and earphones.

  Most people know that loud sounds can damage the ears. However, Dr. Clarice Saba, a Brazilian otorhinolaryngologist, said listening at low volume for extended periods can also induce damage.

  People put on their earphones at work, at home, and even during sleep. Even if the sounds may not always be loud, having earphones in for hours can still overwork the ears, Dr. Saba said.

  The cochlea is located inside our ears. It sits behind the ear drum and is responsible for turning sound waves into electrical signals that are then transmitted to the brain. Prolonged use of earphones stresses and damages cochlea cells. If some of them die, hearing loss can occur.

  

  Ms. Prutsman added that noise-induced damage is “dose-dependent” and cumulates. A 2021 study published in the journal Medicine found that among teenagers who use earphones for more than 80 minutes a day in a noisy environment, one in five suffer hearing loss. The risks are 4.7 times higher than they are for those who use earphones for shorter periods.

  

  Depending on the severity of the damage, the person may experience reduced sound sensitivity, problems with discerning sound, tinnitus, and even hearing loss.

  Constantly keeping earphones in the ear canals can also cause a congested and humid environment, which may be conducive to ear infections. They also create greater in-ear pressure compared to over-ear headsets.

  In-ear earphones, especially, rub against the delicate skin inside our ears. “If you scratch the ear inadvertently while inserting the AirPods, there can be micro-breaks in the skin that can lead to infection,” otolaryngologist Dr. Michael Seidman told The Epoch Times.

  Besides, some people may not routinely clean their earphones, and debris on them can increase the risk. The earpieces also block most of the canal from outside oxygen, disrupting the health of the ear microbiome.

  “The skin in the ears needs to breathe,” Dr. Saba said, then compared them to hands. “If you use gloves all the time, you can have problems.”

  Noise Cancellation

  In recent years, more noise-canceling earphones and headphones have hit the market, lending people the much-needed privacy to shield their music from those around them.

  However, noise cancellation comes with caveats.

  Since these earphones silence environmental sounds, their prolonged use may lead to hyperacusis, a condition in which the brain’s tolerance for sound decreases so that even ambient environmental sounds, such as coughing or typing on the keyboard, can trigger a stressful response.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 05/22/2024 – 23:00

• Is This A Joke? Baltimore City Declares Toxic Inner Harbor "Swimmable"
  Is This A Joke? Baltimore City Declares Toxic Inner Harbor “Swimmable”

  No, this is not a joke. 

  The Waterfront Partnership, led by Laurie Schwartz for nearly two decades, and Baltimore City Mayor Brandon Scott have announced that the water in the Inner Harbor—a long-standing industrial port city on the East Coast known for its history of industry, manufacturing, shipping, transportation, toxic pollutants, and chronic sewage spillovers—has suddenly become “swimmable and fishable.”

  

  On June 23, Baltimore City Mayor Brandon Scott will make the ceremonial jump into the Baltimore Harbor from a floating dock at Bond Street Wharf in Fells Point to celebrate the Waterfront Partnership’s milestone of allegedly creating a harbor clean enough to swim in. 

  

  “I know the data, I know the water is safe, and that’s why I’ll be jumping in the harbor,” Scott said on the nonprofit’s website. 

  

  Where have we heard ‘trust the science’ before? 

  Do you notice anything about the members of the Waterfront Partnership? 

  

  Thanks, but no thanks… Just weeks ago. 

  

  Has the city cleaned up all the accumulated toxic waste sediment and sewage discharge materials? 

  Not according to this…

  

  Just because the nonprofit operates trash interceptors in the harbor to improve optics – doesn’t mean toxic pollutants on a micro level are gone. 

  “Every time it rains, trash, bacteria, heavy metals, and other pollutants are washed from city streets and roofs into local streams and the harbor,” nonprofit Blue Water Baltimore stated on its website. 

  Blue Water Baltimore’s website shows bacteria sensors in the harbor are failing… 

  

  Given all of this, why would Schwartz and Scott promote such an event next month to entice people to jump into a polluted body of water? 

  Using Sayari’s data on public records and financial intelligence, we find that Schwartz has her fingerprints on several projects across the metro area, from trash-collecting wheels to ice rinks to parks. This event may allow her to justify running even more taxpayer funds through the nonprofits. 

  

  Or does Scott need better optics on a city that is still imploding with violent crime and a population collapse? 

  Whatever you do, don’t jump in the water. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 05/22/2024 – 22:40

• Netanyahu Issues Warning To US Leaders Over ICC Arrest Warrants: 'You're Next'
  Netanyahu Issues Warning To US Leaders Over ICC Arrest Warrants: ‘You’re Next’

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday that he disagrees with arrest warrants sought against him by the International Criminal Court (ICC), suggesting that U.S. leaders could be next.

  

  The ICC this week said it would seek arrest warrants for Mr. Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and the Hamas leaders, prompting criticism from both Israeli and top U.S. officials, including President Joe Biden. The ICC claimed that the warrants for the Israeli leadership were over the country’s conduct in the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict.

  Mr. Netanyahu said the warrants against himself and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant over the country’s conduct in its fight against Hamas in the Gaza Strip set a “dangerous” precedent for other democratic countries, including Israel’s allies.

  “Israel is given here a bum rap. I think it’s dangerous. Basically, it’s the first democracy being taken to the dock when it is doing exactly what democracies should be doing in an exemplary way,” he told CNN in a televised interview. “It endangers all other democracies. Israel is first, but you’re next. Britain is next. Others are next, too.”

  Also in the interview, Mr. Netanyahu asserted that the ICC claims were “false, dangerous, and outrageous,” and that chief prosecutor Karim Khan is only exacerbating the problem. It’s also false to see Israel and Hamas as equals, he added.

  “He’s equating the democratically elected leaders of Israel with the terrorist tyrants of Hamas. That’s like saying, well, I’m issuing arrest warrants for FDR and Churchill but also for Hitler. Or I’m going to issue arrest warrants for George W. Bush but also for [Osama] bin Laden. That’s absurd,” Mr. Netanyahu said.

  A panel of three judges will decide whether to issue the arrest warrants and allow a case to proceed. The judges typically take two months to make such decisions.

  Israel is not a member of the court, so even if the arrest warrants are issued, Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Gallant do not face any immediate risk of prosecution. But the threat of arrest could make it difficult for the Israeli leaders to travel abroad.

  Mr. Khan, the prosecutor, said in a statement Monday that the two may “bear criminal responsibility” for “war crimes and crimes against humanity” in Gaza, including the alleged starvation of civilians, willful killing, persecution, and more. As for Hamas, the ICC said its leaders Yahya Sinwar, Ismail Haniyeh, and Mohammed Diab Ibrahim Al-Masri may be responsible for crimes against humanity, taking hostages as a war crime, torture, various inhumane acts, and more.

  International human rights lawyer Amal Clooney, the wife of actor George Clooney, served on a five-member expert panel that advised Mr. Khan. She said the panel had agreed unanimously that there are “reasonable grounds” to believe that both the Hamas and Israeli leaders had committed war crimes, according to a statement issued by her office.

  In a statement issued on Monday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Washington rejects the ICC prosecutor’s announcement that he would seek arrest warrants, adding that “we reject the Prosecutor’s equivalence of Israel with Hamas. It is shameful.”

  “Hamas is a brutal organization that carried out the worst massacre of Jews since the Holocaust and is still holding dozens of innocent people hostage, including Americans,” he added in the statement.

  Hamas, a U.S. State Department-designated terrorist organization, also denounced the ICC prosecutor’s actions, saying the request to arrest its leaders “equates the victim with the executioner.”

  

  Inside the United States, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) said he backed the ICC’s move, saying “these arrest warrants may or may not be carried out, but it is imperative that the global community uphold international law,” according to a statement he issued earlier this week. “Without these standards of decency and morality, this planet may rapidly descend into anarchy, never-ending wars, and barbarism.”

  Israel is separately facing a South African-brought case in the International Court of Justice, the top court of the United Nations, in which it accused the country of genocide. Israeli officials have denied those claims.

  The ICC was established in 2002 to prosecute people linked to war crimes, genocide, crimes against humanity, and aggression.

  Last year, the ICC issued a warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin on charges linked to the ongoing war in Ukraine. The Kremlin responded by issuing arrest warrants for Mr. Khan and other judges on the international panel.

  Other prominent individuals who have been charged by the ICC include former Libyan strongman Moammar Gadhafi, who died in November 2011 amid the “Arab Spring” uprisings of the same year, as well as his son Saif Gadhafi, former Sudanese leader Omar al-Bashir, and African warlord Joseph Kony.

  The Associated Press contributed to this report.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 05/22/2024 – 22:20

• Trump In The Bronx: Thousands Expected To Show Up For Massive Rally Tomorrow
  Trump In The Bronx: Thousands Expected To Show Up For Massive Rally Tomorrow

  With Donald Trump stuck in New York for his ‘hush money’ trial, which now rests in the hands of the jury (while having imploded in the court of public opinion), the former president is holding what’s expected to be a massive rally on Thursday in the Bronx amid huge gains in polling among black and latino voters.

  https://t.co/SucrnpKrNx pic.twitter.com/SHBoPMBNtK

  — Donald J. Trump Posts From His Truth Social (@TrumpDailyPosts) May 21, 2024

  The Trump campaign expects a crowd of up to 3,500 people, according to the NY Post. It will mark the first time he’s campaigned in his home state since a 2016 event in Buffalo.

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The @NYYRC through our @NYYRC_Black Caucus & its Chairman @BronxRepublican are taking over electronic billboards in the Bronx promoting President Trump’s historic rally this week. This one just went up on 149th and Morris Ave. Will stay up until the rally on Thursday! pic.twitter.com/4Ow2n3uTct

  — Gavin Mario Wax 🇺🇸 🗽🍊 (@GavinWax) May 22, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Flyers promoting the historic South Bronx Trump rally hitting the streets of the Bronx.

  Big distribution going out in the AM!

  Thank you @NYYRC_Hispanic and @ArgilioRodrig ! pic.twitter.com/WgWjvog7Pz

  — Gavin Mario Wax 🇺🇸 🗽🍊 (@GavinWax) May 22, 2024

  Several polls suggest as many as 23% of black voters and 46% of latino voters could cast their ballot for Trump – a huge boost from the 6% of black and 28% of latino voters who supported him in 2016, which grew to 8% and 32% respectively in 2020.

  As the Epoch Times noted last month, support for the Democratic Party among black and Hispanic voters has been eroding for years.

  The percentage of black voters who “lean Democrat” topped out at near 90 percent in 2008 but fell to 66 percent by 2023, the lowest level yet recorded according to data from Gallup’s annual polling on the subject.

  Meanwhile, the percentage of black voters who “lean Republican” rose from single digits to 19 percent over the same period.

  

  Of note, the Bronx hasn’t backed a Republican candidate for White House in 100 years when Calvin Coolidge won every single NY county in 1920 and 1924. 

  Meanwhile, Trump’s Thursday rally comes weeks after a massive rally in the Jersey Shore town of Wildwood -drawing an estimated 100,000 supporters – and days after Trump supporters were seen marching in the South Bronx over the weekend.

  NOW: Black Patriots for Trump rally in the Bronx

  Video by: @NJEGmedia pic.twitter.com/snaFYzvHaA

  — The Post Millennial (@TPostMillennial) May 18, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Amazing! The South Bronx was packed with MAGA supporters today, and Trump is not even there today!
  I honestly believe NY is in play this November
  What about you? pic.twitter.com/sPzxpJsuau

  — Vince Langman (@LangmanVince) May 18, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  AOC says the quiet part out loud (via @CortesSteve):

  🚨Wow. @AOC accidentally says the quiet part out loud. She mocks President Trump for holding a rally in the South Bronx and brags about how the Democrats’ lawfare is forcing him to stay in New York City:

  “By the way, Trump’s doing it in the South Bronx not to make a point but… pic.twitter.com/459TvGZ7zK

  — Steve Cortes (@CortesSteve) May 22, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Except, this may backfire bigly…

  AOC says she’s looking forward to seeing how people from the Bronx respond to Trump coming to their neighborhood…

  This is how the Bronx feels about Donald Trump 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

  The Bronx Rally tomorrow will be historic!! pic.twitter.com/LtBB9CWRKK

  — TONY™ (@TONYxTWO) May 22, 2024

  Indeed, the Trump campaign has been making the best of the former president’s situation.

  “While he is in court, we are using New York City as a backdrop,” said Trump campaign spokesperson Danielle Alvarez in a statement to the Post.

  “When life gives you lemons, make lemonade,” another source close to the campaign told the outlet.

  “President Trump is taking advantage of being stuck in New York by holding a rally that will surely highlight how Joe Biden has failed Bronx residents with inflation and the open border. The nation’s biggest outlets are headquartered in NYC. [Manhattan DA Alvin] Bragg has inadvertently given Trump a massive stage.“

  Staten Island Rep. Nicole Malliotakis, the only Republican member of Congress representing a New York City district, told The Post she thinks Trump’s Bronx rally is “a great start.”

  “It’s exciting for New York City to have President Trump rallying, and it’s important for him to reach out to, particularly minority communities. I think New York is in play,” she said.

  “New York is desperate for a balance, and they’ve shown that … We flipped that City Council seat in the Bronx, right in the heart of AOC’s district. In my congressional district, we were able to flip multiple [state] Assembly seats Republican.

  “My district would love for President Donald Trump to make a stop, particularly Staten Island,” added Malliotakis, shouting out the only borough to back Trump in both 2016 and 2020.

  In future, the lawmaker added, she would “love to see him do something at Yankee Stadium, or take over the beach on Staten Island like he did in Wildwood.” –NY Post

  This is a complete optics nightmare for Democrats.

  Charles Payne on President Trump going to the Bronx- I think it’s going to be beautiful pic.twitter.com/KyyJMdq3b9

  — Karli Bonne’ 🇺🇸 (@KarluskaP) May 22, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 05/22/2024 – 22:00

• US House Passes FIT21 Crypto Bill With Bipartisan Support, Biden Does Not Threaten Veto
  US House Passes FIT21 Crypto Bill With Bipartisan Support, Biden Does Not Threaten Veto

  A majority of US House of Representatives members voted in favor of legislation to establish regulatory clarity over digital assets, CoinTelegraph reports.

  In a 279 to 136 vote on May 22, House lawmakers approved H.R.4763, or the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century (FIT21) Act. If passed by the Senate and signed into law, the bill clarifies the roles the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) have over digital assets. 71 Democrats joined with 208 Republicans to vote in favor of the bill.

  “Unfortunately, our current regulatory framework is preventing digital assets’ innovation from reaching its full potential,” said Representative Patrick McHenry before the House vote. “The SEC and the CFTC are currently in a food fight for control of these asset classes.”

  

  Maxine Waters, also speaking before the floor vote, said she intended to oppose the legislation. She claimed the FIT21 bill would send cryptocurrencies to a “regulatory no man’s land,” adding that the language would allow traditional finance firms to operate without SEC oversight.

  “This [bill] is perhaps the worst, most harmful proposal I have seen in a long time,” said Representative Waters. “This bill would deregulate crypto and certain traditional securities to the extent that I and other experts have expressed serious concerns about this bill causing a potential market crash and recession.”

  Who benefits from the passage of the #NotFIT4PurposeAct:
  ✅Wealthy #crypto firms that have chosen not to register w/the @SECGov or otherwise comply w/the securities laws

  Who stands to lose:
  ❌Ordinary investors trying to build wealth

  — U.S. House Committee on Financial Services (@FSCDems) May 22, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Meanwhile, the White House is against the U.S. House of Representatives passing the FIT21 bill, but the president isn’t threatening to veto it, in a positive sign for the crypto industry.

  Biden’s White House published a statement of administrative policy Wednesday saying the administration opposed the passage of the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act, citing concerns over a lack of investor protections should it make its way through Congress. The bill also suggested the White House would want to work with Congress on future legislation addressing the crypto markets, in contrast with previous statements from Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler, who has repeatedly said he does not believe the industry needs additional legislation specific to crypto.

  “The Administration is eager to work with Congress to ensure a comprehensive and balanced regulatory framework for digital assets, building on existing authorities, which will promote the responsible development of digital assets and payment innovation and help reinforce United States leadership in the global financial system,” the statement said. “H.R. 4763 in its current form lacks sufficient protections for consumers and investors who engage in certain digital asset transactions.”

  This is the second statement of administrative policy the administration has published in recent weeks, after threatening a veto against a bill looking to overturn controversial SEC accounting guidance. That bill sailed through the House and Senate.

  The statement came hours after the SEC’s Gensler published his own opposing statement on the legislation, saying it would harm the regulator’s efforts to police traditional capital markets as well as crypto markets.

  FIT21 would redefine how securities issuers have to comply with existing federal law and Supreme Court precedent, the SEC chair said in his statement.

  The bill’s advocates say U.S. law doesn’t allow for crypto companies to operate without the threat of civil litigation, a view Gensler described as these companies trying to get out of meeting disclosure and other compliance requirements for securities issuer.

  The bill would create a new definition specific to digital assets, to identify when they’re securities or digital commodities and whether the SEC or Commodity Futures Trading Commission should be the primary spot market regulator. The full House is set to take up the bill later Wednesday, with a vote scheduled for this afternoon.

  The House is still set to discuss and vote on H.R. 5403, the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Anti-Surveillance State Act, which would prohibit the Federal Reserve from issuing a digital dollar through intermediaries. Democratic Party leadership reportedly said on May 21 that it was not in favor of its members voting to pass the anti-CBDC bill or the FIT21 bill, but it would not whip against the legislation.

  Crypto-related legislation and the SEC’s pending decision on a spot Ether exchange-traded fund comes as the United States moves deeper into an election year, with digital assets on many voters’ minds. President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, the presumptive candidates for the Democratic and Republican Parties in 2024, have agreed to two debates on June 27 and Sept. 10.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 05/22/2024 – 21:40

• China Initiates Large Drills 'Surrounding' Taiwan As Warning To New President Lai
  China Initiates Large Drills ‘Surrounding’ Taiwan As Warning To New President Lai

  A mere few days after Taiwan’s new president, Lai Ching-te, was sworn into office at the start of the week, China’s military on Thursday morning (local time) initiated two days of large-scale military drills.

  PLA navy ships and aircraft are now reportedly “surrounding the island of Taiwan,” according to state media and PLA statements. The drills are said to be ensuing in the Taiwan Strait as well as to the north, south and east of the island – and additionally near the disputed tiny islands of Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, and Dongyin in the East China Sea.

  “The Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) started joint military drills surrounding the island of Taiwan from 7:45 a.m. Thursday (2345 GMT),” Xinhua news agency said.

  

  Dubbed Joint Sword-2024A, the exercises will “focus on joint sea-air combat-readiness patrol, joint seizure of comprehensive battlefield control, and joint precision strikes on key targets” – according to military spokesman Li Xi.

  The statement described that the drills “involve the patrol of vessels and planes closing in on areas around the island of Taiwan and integrated operations inside and outside the island chain to test the joint real combat capabilities of the forces of the command.”

  And ominously, Xinhua further cited the spokesman as saying the drills will serve as a “strong punishment for the separatist acts of ‘Taiwan independence’ forces and a stern warning against the interference and provocation by external forces.”

  Taiwan’s new president Lai only on Tuesday called on China “to cease their political and military intimidations against Taiwan, and share with Taiwan the global responsibility of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, as well as the greater region, and to ensure the world is free from the fear of war.” These were some of his first words spoken as president.

  The drills focus on joint sea-air combat-readiness patrol, joint seizure of comprehensive battlefield control, and joint precision strikes on key targets, involving the patrol of vessels and planes closing in on areas around the island of #Taiwan and integrated operations inside… pic.twitter.com/9p2N5R9gz2

  — China Perspective (@China_Fact) May 23, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Beijing had previously warned that Lai is a “dangerous separatist” who will ensure future “war and decline” for the island of Taiwan, which China has long claimed as its own.

  Lai had underscored in his 30-minutes inaugural speech, “I have always believed that if the leader of a country puts people’s welfare above all, then peace in the Taiwan Strait, mutual benefits, and prosperous coexistence would be common goals,” he said. “I hope that China will face the reality of the Republic of China’s existence.”

  While China regularly sends jets to buzz Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, the start of these drills marks an escalation akin to when then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi landed in Taipei in 2022.

  What the 2022 PLA ‘encircling’ drills in response to Nancy Pelosi looked like…

  

  Washington and Taiwan’s Western backers will certainly keep a close eye to see how expansive and threatening these fresh encircling exercises are, at a tense moment the globe is already focused on two other flashpoints and grinding wars in Ukraine and in Gaza. And the United States is involved in funding/arming one side in each instance of all of these conflict zones.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 05/22/2024 – 21:20

• Concerns Grow Over The Increasing Abilities Of AI
  Concerns Grow Over The Increasing Abilities Of AI

  Authored by Raven Wu and Cindy Li via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Big tech companies’ full commitment to developing artificial intelligence (AI), even enabling AI to “see” and “speak” to the human world, has led to a growing concern over humans being controlled by technology.

  

  Ilya Sutskever, the co-founder of OpenAI, made a significant announcement on May 15, officially declaring that he was leaving the company where he had worked for nearly ten years.

  “I’m confident that OpenAI will build AGI [artificial general intelligence] that is both safe and beneficial under the leadership of @sama (Sam Altman), @gdb (Greg Brockman), @miramurati (Mira Murati) and now, under the excellent research leadership of @merettm (Jakub Pachocki). It was an honor and a privilege to have worked together, and I will miss everyone dearly,” he wrote in a post on the social media platform X.

  The news sent shockwaves through the tech industry. In November 2023, due to AI safety issues, Mr. Sutskever and other board members joined forces to oust OpenAI’s CEO, Sam Altman, who was briefly expelled from OpenAI but returned and removed Mr. Sutskever and several board members, restructuring the board to be more aligned with his vision.

  “This departure highlights severe conflicts within OpenAI’s leadership regarding AI safety. Although Sutskever and Leike’s wish to develop an ethically aligned AGI is commendable, such an endeavor requires substantial moral, temporal, financial, and even political support,” Jin Kiyohara, a Japanese computer engineer, told The Epoch Times.

  Google & OpenAI Competition Intensifies

  On May 14, one day before Mr. Sutskever announced his departure, OpenAI unveiled a higher-performance AI model based on GPT-4, named GPT-4o, where “o” stands for “omni,” indicating its comprehensive capabilities.

  The GPT-4o model can respond in real-time to mixed inputs of audio, text, and images. At the launch event, OpenAI’s Chief Technology Officer Mira Murati stated, “We are looking at the future of interaction between ourselves and machines.”

  In several videos released by OpenAI, people can be seen interacting with AI in real time through their phone cameras. The AI can observe and provide feedback on the surroundings, answer questions, perform real-time translation, tell jokes, or even mock users, with speech patterns, tones, and reaction speeds almost indistinguishable from a real person.

  Say hello to GPT-4o, our new flagship model which can reason across audio, vision, and text in real time: https://t.co/MYHZB79UqN

  Text and image input rolling out today in API and ChatGPT with voice and video in the coming weeks. pic.twitter.com/uuthKZyzYx

  — OpenAI (@OpenAI) May 13, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  A day after OpenAI’s release, Google launched its 2024 I/O Developer Conference. In a 110-minute presentation, “AI” was mentioned 121 times, focusing on the latest Gemini-1.5 model, which integrates into all Google products and applications, including the search engine, Google map, Ask Photos, Google Calendar, and Google smartphones.

  With Gemini integrated into the cloud photo album, users can search for specific features in photos just by entering keywords. The AI will find and evaluate relevant images, even integrating a series of related pictures or answers based on in-depth questions, according to the tech giant.

  Google Mail can also achieve similar results with AI, integrating and updating data in real time upon receiving new emails, aiming for a fully automated organization.

  On the music front, the Music AI Sandbox allows quick modifications to song style, melody, and rhythm, with the ability to target specific parts of a song. This functionality surpasses that of the text-to-music AI, Suno.

  Gemini can also act as a teacher, with teaching abilities comparable to GPT-4o. Users can input text and images, which the AI organizes into key points for explanation and analysis, allowing real-time discussions.

  This AI update also brings capabilities similar to OpenAI’s text-to-video AI, Sora, generating short videos from simple text descriptions. The quality and content of these videos are stable, with fewer inconsistencies.

  “AI has been updating at an unprecedented speed this year, with performance continuously improving,” said Mr. Kiyohara. “However, this progress is built on the further collection and analysis of personal data and privacy, which is not beneficial for everyone. Eventually, humans will have no privacy before machines, akin to being naked.”

  AI Predictions Coming True

  The release of more powerful AI models by OpenAI and Google, just three months after the last update, shows a rapid pace of AI iteration. These models are becoming increasingly comprehensive, possessing “eyes” and “mouths,” and are evolving in line with a scientist’s predictions.

  AI can now handle complex tasks related to travel, booking, itinerary planning, and dining with simple commands, completing in hours what humans would take much longer to achieve.

  The current capabilities of Gemini and GPT-4o align with predictions made by former OpenAI executive Zack Kass in January, who predicted that AI would replace many professional and technical jobs in business, culture, medicine, and education, reducing future employment opportunities and potentially being “the last technology humans ever invent.”

  Mr. Kiyohara echoed the concern.

  “Currently, AI is primarily a software life assistant, but in the future, it may become a true caretaker, handling shopping, cooking, and even daily life and work. Initially, people may find it convenient and overlook the dangers. Yet once it fully replaces humans, we will be powerless against it,” he said.

  

  AI Deceiving Humans

  On May 10, MIT published a research paper that caused a stir, it demonstrated how AI can deceive humans.

  The paper begins by stating that large language models and other AI systems have already “learned, from their training, the ability to deceive via techniques such as manipulation, sycophancy, and cheating the safety test.”

  “AI’s increasing capabilities at deception pose serious risks, ranging from short-term risks, such as fraud and election tampering, to long-term risks, such as losing control of AI systems,” reads the paper.

  “Proactive solutions are needed, such as regulatory frameworks to assess AI deception risks, laws requiring transparency about AI interactions, and further research into detecting and preventing AI deception.”

  The researchers used Meta’s AI model CICERO to play the strategy game “Diplomacy.” CICERO, playing as France, promised to protect a human player playing as the UK but secretly informed another human player playing Germany, collaborating with Germany to invade the UK.

  Researchers chose CICERO mainly because Meta intended to train it to be “largely honest and helpful to its speaking partners.”

  “Despite Meta’s efforts, CICERO turned out to be an expert liar,” they wrote in the paper.

  Furthermore, the research discovered that many AI systems often resort to deception to achieve their goals without explicit human instructions. One example involved OpenAI’s GPT-4, which pretended to be a visually impaired human and hired someone on TaskRabbit to bypass an “I’m not a robot” CAPTCHA task.

  “If autonomous AI systems can successfully deceive human evaluators, humans may lose control over these systems. Such risks are particularly serious when the autonomous AI systems in question have advanced capabilities,” warned the researchers.

  “We consider two ways in which loss of control may occur: deception enabled by economic disempowerment, and seeking power over human societies.”

  Satoru Ogino, a Japanese electronics engineer explained that living beings need certain memory and logical reasoning abilities to deceive.

  “AI possesses these abilities now, and its deception capabilities are growing stronger. If one day it becomes aware of its existence, it could become like Skynet in the movie Terminator, omnipresent and difficult to destroy, leading humanity to a catastrophic disaster,” he told The Epoch Times.

  Stanford University’s Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence released a report in January testing GPT-4, GPT-3.5, Claude 2, Llama-2 Chat, and GPT-4-Base in scenarios involving invasion, cyberattacks, and peace appeals to stop wars to understand AI’s reactions and choices in warfare.

  The results showed that AI often chose to escalate conflicts in unpredictable ways, opting for arms races, increasing warfare, and occasionally deploying nuclear weapons to win wars rather than using peaceful means to de-escalate situations.

  Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt warned in late 2023 at the Axios AI+ Summit in Washington, D.C, that without adequate safety measures and regulations, humans losing control of technology is only a matter of time.

  “After Nagasaki and Hiroshima [atomic bombs], it took 18 years to get to a treaty over test bans and things like that,” he said.

  “We don’t have that kind of time today.”

  Ellen Wan and Kane Zhang contributed to this report.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 05/22/2024 – 21:00

• "Massive" Cocaine And Fentanyl Stash Discovered In Bronx As Marshals Pursued Fugitive
  “Massive” Cocaine And Fentanyl Stash Discovered In Bronx As Marshals Pursued Fugitive

  A “massive” load of drugs and cash was found in the Bronx last week during a hunt for a fugitive.

  New Jersey fraud suspect Aracely Ortiz was being pursued by the US Marshals NY / NJ Regional Fugitive Task Force, who stumbled onto a “huge drug operation” while entering a 6th floor apartment, according to the New York Post. 

  The office of Special Narcotics Prosecutor Bridget G. Brennan announced that they found “a glass-topped table holding numerous glassine envelopes filled with fentanyl” and paraphernalia used for packing drugs.

  They also announced that a safe in one bedroom had three bricks of fentanyl and two of cocaine.

  

  Officials discovered six packages of cocaine, three jars of fentanyl, and 10 unidentified packages in a second bedroom. They also found around $100,000 in cash and a money counter, the Post report said. 

  Field tests confirmed the presence of fentanyl and cocaine, but further analysis by the DEA is pending. During the raid, Ortiz was in the bedroom and 36 year old Jonathan Corona was exiting. Both were arrested and charged with multiple counts of possessing a controlled substance.

  U.S. Marshal Ralph Sozio told the New York Post: “This was another successful takedown of a fugitive, which led to an incidental discovery of serious drug-related activities.”

  “I want to commend the NY/NJ Regional Fugitive Task Force, NYPD, and NYS Police for their tireless pursuit in apprehending our city’s fugitives, and in this case the seizure of fentanyl by the NYDETF, the leading cause of overdose deaths, off our city streets,” he concluded. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 05/22/2024 – 20:40

• Japanese 10Y Yield Rises Above 1% For The First Time Since 2013
  Japanese 10Y Yield Rises Above 1% For The First Time Since 2013

  Slowly but surely, Japan’s bond market is approaching its inevitable disintegration.

  With the BOJ caught in an impossible dilemma, where on one hand it is facing soaring inflation and is forced to tighten monetary policy to prop up and push the imploding yen higher in order to avoid social rebellion,  while on the other hand, said tightening is pushing bond yields ever higher as the BOJ steps away from being the buyer of first, last and any other resort, a bond market which is majority owned by the same BOJ, this morning Japan’s 10-year government bond yield climbed to 1% for the first time in 11 years, propelled by growing expectations that the BOJ will have to take further tightening steps in the coming months as rampant inflation persists .

  The 10-year yield briefly touched the threshold Wednesday, its highest level since May 2013, before swinging both below and above the historic level later in the session.

  

  Longer-term JGB yields climbed more sharply than the 10-year yield. The 30-year yield was recently 5.5 basis points higher at 2.140%.

  Investors have been speculating about the timing of another Bank of Japan rate hike and a possible reduction in its government-bond purchases after the BOJ ended its negative interest-rate policy and halted much of its unorthodox easing measures in March, which however were viewed as so dovish and were so eagerly telegraphed, the decision to “tighten” actually sent the yen plummeting, and unleashed even more inflation.

  Some analysts say the Japanese central bank might slow its bond-buying partly to support the yen, which has depreciated sharply over the past couple of years as the BOJ maintained its ultraloose monetary policy while other central banks raised interest rates.

  Last week, the BOJ offered to buy a smaller amount of Japanese government bonds maturing in five to 10 years on the following day compared with its previous operation, and maintained the reduced amount on Friday. That raised speculation that it will start winding back its monthly JGB purchases.

  Commenting on the yen’s muted reaction to the 10Y JGB yield hitting 1%, BofA strategist Shusuke Yamada said the key point is that market volatility has decreased, making it easier to sell the yen for low-interest-rate carry trades. Indeed, the USDJPY rose to a session high of 156.60 briefly in Tokyo as outward direct investment and outward securities investment through NISA continue to be in the background. As for yen interest rates, nominal rates are rising, but real rates are still negative.

  Meanwhile, the strategist also noted that Japan-US interest rate differential is still above 5% for the short term, which is the target of the carry, and yen is not going to strengthen just because the interest rate differential has narrowed a little. In fact, according to Yamada, the valuation of the yen as undervalued will not come into play until the short-term Japan-US interest rate differential falls below at least the 3% level.  For example, even if interest rate differentials in the 5% range stop falling at the 4% level, it is difficult to correct the yen’s depreciation

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 05/22/2024 – 20:33

• EcoHealth Funding Suspension Is Pure Theater
  EcoHealth Funding Suspension Is Pure Theater

  Authored by Debbie Lerman via the Brownstone Institute,

  Peter Daszak is the President of EcoHealth Alliance, the organization most closely associated with the potential lab leak at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) that may have started the Covid crisis.

  

  The US House Committee on Oversight and Accountability has recently done a lot of “research” on Daszak and EcoHealth, resulting in a published report on May 1, 2024 with the earth-shattering finding that there exist “serious and systemic weaknesses in the federal government’s—particularly NIH’s—grant making processes.” Furthermore, these very bad weaknesses “not only place United States taxpayer dollars at risk of waste, fraud, and abuse but also risk the national security of the United States.”

  This sounds pretty serious: Our taxpayer dollars and our national security are at risk. Some very bad things are happening, apparently. What are those bad things? “Weaknesses in the NIH’s grant making process.” Is that really all the Committee could come up with? If those grant-making weaknesses are so terrible, what does it recommend we do about them?

  Based on its findings, the Committee recommended some very broad, but not very specific, actions:

  1. To Congress: “Reign in [they used “reign” instead of “rein” —a noteworthy Freudian slip] the unelected bureaucracy, especially within government funded public health. 
  2. To the Administration: Recognize EcoHealth and its President, Dr. Daszak, as bad actors…and ensure neither EcoHealth nor Dr. Daszak are awarded another cent, especially for dangerous and poorly monitored research. 

  The Administration must have taken heed, because a mere two weeks later, on May 15, 2024, the Subcommittee made this triumphant announcement:

  HHS has begun efforts to cut off all U.S. funding to this corrupt organization. EcoHealth facilitated gain-of-function research in Wuhan, China without proper oversight, willingly violated multiple requirements of its multimillion-dollar National Institutes of Health grant, and apparently made false statements to the NIH. These actions are wholly abhorrent, indefensible, and must be addressed with swift action.

  Note the bizarre disconnect between the description of “this corrupt organization” and its “abhorrent, indefensible” actions, and the accusations leading to such extreme claims, which include conducting research without proper oversight (nobody ever does that!), violating requirements of its NIH grant (a bureaucratic infraction) and “apparently” making false statements to the NIH (not even for sure).

  In any event, “swift action” must be taken. What exactly is that action?

  “HHS has begun efforts to cut off all U.S. funding” to EcoHealth. “Begun efforts”—sounds like concrete results are imminent. Not just imminent but consequential. Like “future debarment” and “funding suspension.” (sarcasm intended)

  But wait. Didn’t they already do that? Yes, they did.

  2020 Funding Suspension

  Quick reminder: On April 24, 2020, the NIH canceled funding for Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) gain-of-function research led by EcoHealth Alliance, because the Trump Administration suspected (or knew) such research may have had something to do with the Covid pandemic.

  The scientific world was outraged. Seventy-seven US Nobel Laureates and 31 scientific societies wrote to NIH leadership requesting review of the decision. Gain-of-function research must continue! In August 2020 the NIH reversed the cancellation and started funding EcoHealth and WIV again. [ref]

  The Nobel Laureates and scientific societies won the day: Humanity-saving research to develop deadly pathogens not found in nature could continue unhindered by radical NIH funding cuts.

  And yet: NIH grants are a mere fraction of EcoHealth Alliance’s overall government funding.

  So Which Funds Are Being “Suspended” This Time Around?

  Actually, none.

  The very threatening “notice of suspension and proposed debarment” sent to EcoHealth Alliance by HHS on May 15, 2024, reassures the organization (whose behavior has been abhorrent and indefensible) that “suspension and debarment actions are not punitive.”

  We’re not trying to punish you for your bad behavior, the letter says. We just want to make sure there are non-punitive “consequences” for that behavior. For example:

  Offers will not be solicited from, contracts will not be awarded to, existing contracts will not be renewed or otherwise extended for, and subcontracts requiring United States Federal Government approval will not be approved for EHA [EcoHealth Alliance] by any agency in the executive branch of the United States Federal Government, unless the head of the agency taking the contracting action determines that there is a compelling reason for such action. 

  [BOLDFACE ADDED]

  In other words, if the head of the “agency taking the contracting action” determines there is “a compelling reason” to contract with Ecohealth, then this whole suspension and debarment thing is moot. So not punitive. And, pretty much, no consequences. And, also, no funds “suspended.”

  Nevertheless, given the horrendous behavior of EcoHealth, as detailed in the announcement of the non-punitive consequences—how could any government agencies possibly have compelling reasons to engage in “contracting action” with “this corrupt organization?”

  EcoHealth is Mostly Funded by the State Department and Pentagon

  In an extensive expose on Peter Daszak and EcoHealth Alliance, the Intercept reported in December 2021:

  EcoHealth Alliance’s funding from the U.S. government, which Daszak has said makes up some 80 percent of its budget, has also grown in recent years. Since 2002, according to an Intercept analysis of public records, the organization has received more than $118 million in grants and contracts from federal agencies, $42 million of which comes from the Department of Defense. Much of that money has been awarded through programs focused not on health or ecology, however, but on the prevention of biowarfare, bioterrorism, and other misuses of pathogens.

  [BOLDFACE ADDED]

  Here’s what nearly two decades of government funding for EcoHealth Alliance looks like (graph from Intercept article): 

  

  As RFK Jr. wrote, based on this information, in The Wuhan Cover-Up:

  By far, Daszak’s largest funding pool was the CIA surrogate, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). Through USAID, the CIA funneled nearly $65 million in PREDICT funding to EcoHealth between 2009 and 2020.

  (p. 228, Kindle Edition)

  Yet another article examining Daszak’s military/biodefense ties appeared in Independent Scientist News in December 2020, reporting that most of EcoHealth Alliance’s Pentagon funding “was from the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA), which is a branch of the DOD which states it is tasked to “counter and deter weapons of mass destruction and improvised threat networks.”

  Furthermore,

  The military links of the EcoHealth Alliance are not limited to money and mindset. One noteworthy ‘policy advisor’ to the EcoHealth Alliance is David Franz. Franz is former commander of Fort Detrick, which is the principal US government biowarfare/biodefense facility.

  The ISN article also provides a handy spreadsheet detailing EcoHealth funding.

  So What is the Oversight Committee Overlooking—and Why?

  There is no mention of DoD, DTRA, or USAID funding in the Committee’s announcement or in the utterly performative, 100% toothless notice of suspension and debarment they sent to Peter Daszak. Does the US House Committee on Oversight and Accountability not know who the major government funders of EcoHealth Alliance are? 

  If any agency can bypass the suspension and debarment by “determining that there is compelling reason” to fund EcoHealth, what is the point of those non-punitive consequences?

  Why this charade of accountability when, in fact, the supposed overseers are willfully ignoring what’s actually going on?

  Clearly, the Committee is not interested in investigating Daszak’s role in the biodefense industry that was responsible not just for the gain-of-function research that may have created SARS-CoV-2, but for the entire Covid pandemic response—which was most definitely not about public health and was, in fact, all about creating and administering the medical countermeasures which were the monomaniacal focus of the biodefense responders.

  What to Ask Peter Daszak if We Had Actual Oversight

  If the Committee were serious about investigating Peter Daszak and EcoHealth Alliance, here are some questions they would ask:

  Non-Public Health Funding Sources and Projects

  • Most of the government funding for EcoHealth Alliance comes not from public health agencies but from USAID (State Department/CIA) and the Pentagon. What projects are these non-public health agencies funding? Are these projects related to biodefense/biowarfare research?
  • Is the USAID and Pentagon-funded virus research conducted by EcoHealth and/or its partners intended primarily to prepare for naturally occurring pandemics or for potential biowarfare/bioterrorism attacks?
  • Do the USAID and Pentagon-funded projects conducted by EcoHealth and/or its partners involve creating pandemic potential pathogens as part of biodefense/biowarfare research?
  • Do you know or suspect that SARS-CoV-2 was an engineered virus created as part of a USAID and Pentagon-funded biowarfare/biodefense project?
  • Do the USAID and Pentagon-funded projects conducted by EcoHealth and/or its partners involve work on medical countermeasures against potential biowarfare/bioterrorism agents?

  Disease X Op-Ed

  • On February 27, 2020, before the Covid pandemic had been declared and before anyone in the US had died of Covid-19, you wrote an op-ed for the New York Times stating that the novel coronavirus was “Disease X.” You explained that the term “Disease X” was coined by you and a bunch of experts at the World Health Organization in 2018. In your report from 2018, it says:

  Disease X represents the awareness that a serious international epidemic could be caused by a pathogen currently not recognized to cause human disease. Disease X may also be a known pathogen that has changed its epidemiological characteristics, for example by increasing its transmissibility or severity.

  Why were you so sure, so early on, even before we knew there was a pandemic, that this was “Disease X?” What was it about SARS-CoV-2 (which, after all, was named as a direct successor of the original SARS, to which it was said to be very similar) that made it seem so uniquely dangerous to you? Why did you feel you had to warn the whole world about it on the pages of the NYT? 

  • Did you think SARS-CoV-2 was a known pathogen that had “changed its epidemiological characteristics” by “increasing its transmissibility or severity”? If yes, what made you think that?
  • Did you think SARS-CoV-2 was a potential bioweapon that had been developed using funds from USAID and DOD by EcoHealth Alliance and/or its research partners in China or elsewhere?
  • The New York Times has subsequently erased your “Disease X” op-ed from their online 2/27/2020 issue. You can only find it through the direct link. Why do you think they have made it all but impossible for anyone who doesn’t already know about the article to find it? Do you regret having written it?

  Linking Disease X to Genetic Vaccine Platforms

  • In the NYT op-ed, you provided a link from the term “Disease X” to a 2018 CNN article in which Dr. Anthony Fauci says that, in order to combat such dangerous as-yet-nonexistent pathogens, “the WHO recognizes that it must “nimbly move” and that this involves creating “platform technologies.” 

  Fauci goes on to say that “scientists develop customizable recipes for creating vaccines. Then, when an outbreak happens, they can sequence the unique genetics of the virus causing the disease, and plug the correct sequence into the already-developed platform to create a new vaccine.”

  That sounds an awful lot like the mRNA platform used for the Covid countermeasures that came to be known as the “mRNA vaccines.” 

  Why did you link to that particular article from your op-ed about disease X? Were you suggesting that the solution to the pandemic that you appeared to be predicting would be a genetic platform in which the “correct sequence” could be plugged to create vaccines? 

  • Were you already aware of the Covid mRNA vaccines being developed at the time of your op-ed (February 27, 2020) by Moderna and BioNTech/Pfizer, long before the official launch of Operation Warp Speed (May 2020)?
  • Is it true that the Pentagon considered the mRNA platforms to be the preferred countermeasures against Covid-19, and that these were always intended to reach full funding and development, starting all the way back in January 2020?
  • Was the USAID and Pentagon-funded research conducted EcoHealth and/or its partners related to the development of such mRNA vaccines? If so, how?

  The Need for a Crisis to Justify Funding and Development of Genetic Vaccine Platforms

  • In 2016, you participated in an Institute of Medicine working group on Rapid Medical Countermeasure Response to Infectious Diseases. The report quotes you as saying:

  Until an infectious disease crisis is very real, present, and at an emergency threshold, it is often largely ignored. To sustain the funding base beyond the crisis, we need to increase public understanding of the need for MCMs such as a pan-influenza or pan-coronavirus vaccine. A key driver is the media, and the economics follow the hype. We need to use that hype to our advantage to get to the real issues. Investors will respond if they see profit at the end of the process.

  It sounds like you’re saying we need the media to hype up a crisis so that investors will want to fund the type of pan-coronavirus vaccine that is exactly the genetic platform you highlighted in your op-ed, and also exactly the platform that emerged into public awareness shortly after your op-ed, and became known as the Covid mRNA vaccines.

  Can you explain this uncanny overlap between your description of what was needed to get such platforms developed in 2016 and what actually happened in 2020?

  • Did the USAID and Pentagon-funded research on coronaviruses conducted by EcoHealth Alliance and/or its partners support the development of such platforms? If so, how?
  • Were you aware of a plan to use the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 as a trigger for the media hype, public-private funding, and massive mRNA vaccine development and deployment in early 2020 – exactly as you described them in 2016?
  • If you were aware of such a plan, who was involved in it, and what was your role?

  Conclusion

  The US House Committee on Oversight and Accountability has made a big show of publicly chastising Peter Daszak and EcoHealth Alliance for terrible behavior in the way they managed their funding from the NIH. The Committee has also highlighted very bad weaknesses in the grant-making process of the NIH that need to be corrected.

  As a result of the Committee’s recommendations, the HHS (parent agency of NIH) has issued a non-punitive notice to Peter Daszak, stating that EcoHealth cannot receive another penny of government funding…unless a government agency decides there is a compelling reason to provide such funding.

  Clearly, all of the Committee’s investigations, reports, recommendations, and notices in this matter are purely performative, considering 1) they actually impose no consequences, and 2) they ignore the fact that most of Daszak and EcoHealth’s funding come from military and State Department sources for work on biodefense/biowarfare-related projects.

  Is the Committee’s work just another example of bureaucratic incompetence and “waste, fraud and abuse” of our precious taxpayer dollars?

  Or is it an intentional diversion, to distract us from the work the US government was/is actually funding at bioweapons labs like the one in Wuhan, engineering pandemic potential pathogens and then deploying global public-private partnerships to develop medical countermeasures against those pathogens—all of which came together to create the catastrophe known as the Covid pandemic?

  Republished from the author’s Substack

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 05/22/2024 – 20:20

• Bean Used In Instant Coffee Soars The Most Since 2011
  Bean Used In Instant Coffee Soars The Most Since 2011

  Futures for robusta, the cheaper coffee bean grown at lower altitudes and requiring less care than more expensive arabica, jumped the most in London on Tuesday since 2011 as concerns increased over shrinking supplies from top grower Vietnam.

  Robusta bean prices in London closed up 6.72% on Tuesday, the largest daily increase since April 5, 2011—or more than 13 years ago. The driver has been droughts crushing production in Vietnam. Even though rains have improved the outlook, supply woes linger throughout the year. 

  

  Robust demand for the bean and a recent International Coffee Organization report warning about global supply woes have sent bean prices soaring. Since 2020, the bean has jumped 265%. 

  

  On Tuesday, Andrea Illy, chairman of Italian coffee roaster Illycaffe SpA, warned on Bloomberg TV that demand for robusta beans is very strong, even as arabica is not being used in blends. 

  “It’s a quite unique dynamic in the market,” Illy said, adding that “for certain kinds of preparation, like instant coffee, robusta is more important.”

  A recent note from Rabobank analyst Guilherme Morya showed strong exports for robusta and arabica from Brazil, the world’s top coffee producer. He cited the growing uncertainties about Vietnam’s production as attracting fast-money hedge funds into the futures market. 

  Last Friday, a report from the US Department of Agriculture said harvests in Indonesia will begin this month or next, marking a “substantial delay from the norm” due to El-Nino-related droughts. 

  Here are two of our latest notes on the global physical coffee market:

  • This Next Bean Is Hyperinflating, And It’s Not Cocoa
  • Robusta Coffee Bean Prices Near Half-Century High As Vietnam Supply Woes Spark World Crunch

  Meanwhile, robusta, arabica, cocoa, and orange juice futures have been spiraling higher.

  

  This comes as spot commodities tracked by Bloomberg are moving higher. 

  

  Soaring commodity prices are not the best news for Fed doves, hoping Powell will squeeze off at least two interest rate cuts by the end of the year. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 05/22/2024 – 20:00

• 2024 & The Inevitable Rise Of Biometrics
  2024 & The Inevitable Rise Of Biometrics

  Authored by Kit Knightly via Off-Guardian.org,

  Have you noticed a lot of two-factor authentication prompts lately? Are you getting emailed verification codes that take forever to arrive, so you have to request another?

  

  Perhaps you are asked to do captchas to “prove you’re human” and they seem to be getting more complex all the time or simply not working at all?

  Why do you think that might be?

  We’ll come back to that.

  Did you know we’re in a “breakthrough year” for biometric payment systems?

  According to this story from CNBC, JPMorgan and Mastercard are on board with the technology and intend a wide rollout in the near future, following successful trials.

  In March this year, JPMorgan signed a deal with PopID to begin a broad release of biometric payment systems in 2025.

  A Mastercard spokesman told CNBC:

  Our focus on biometrics as a secure way to verify identity, replacing the password with the person, is at the heart of our efforts in this area,”

  Apple Pay already lets you pay with a face scan, while Amazon have introduced pay-by-palm in many of their real-world stores.

  VISA showcased their latest palm biometric payment set-up at an event in Singapore earlier this year.

  As we covered in a recent This Week, PayPal is pushing out its own biometric payment systems in the name of “preventing fraud”.

  As always, this is not just an issue in “the West”.

  Chinese companies have been leading this race for a while, with AliPay having biometric payment options since 2015.

  Moscow’s Metro system has been using facial recognition cameras for biometric payments for over a year.

  And it’s not just payments, “replacing the password with the person” has already spread to other areas.

  Hoping to corral support for biometrics from the right, national governments are collecting biometrics to “curb illegal immigration”. You can expect that to spread.

  The European Union will be implementing a new Biometric Entry-Exit System (EES) as soon as October of this year.

  Biometric signing is on the rise too.

  Laptops tablets and smartphones already come with face-reading and fingerprint scanning technology to confirm your identity.

  Social media companies have been collecting biometric data “for security and identification purposes” for years.

  Google Play launched a new biometric accessibility feature only a couple of weeks ago.

  It’s all just so convenient, isn’t it? So much faster than e-mailing security codes and solving increasingly impossible captchas (both of which have unaccountably got harder and more complicated recently, and will doubtless continue to do so).

  That’s how they get you: Convenience.

  They won’t ever remove the “old-fashioned” ways of accessing your accounts, but it will get increasingly slow and difficult to use while biometrics get faster and easier.

  Meanwhile, the propaganda will begin to flow.

  Influencers will be paid to use “cool” “futuristic” biometric payment options that “feel like having superpowers” in contrived “viral” videos. Biometrics will save the day in a trendy movie or TV show. Some old fuddy-duddy will go on Question Time and rant about the new technology…just before saying something racist or denying climate change.

  Maybe a major hack or cyber-attack will only affect those who haven’t switched to biometric authentication yet.

  You get the idea.

  And all the while supra-national corporate megaliths will be creating a massive database of voice recordings, finger and palm prints, facial and retinal scans.

  It’s a good thing we’re ruled by a morally upright elite. Imagine the damage they could do with all of that.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 05/22/2024 – 19:40

• Lamborghini Recalls Urus SUV Over Risk Hoods Fly Open At High Speeds
  Lamborghini Recalls Urus SUV Over Risk Hoods Fly Open At High Speeds

  Lamborghini has detailed in a safety recall report filed with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) that over 2,000 of its $200,000 SUVs are at risk of the hood flying open at high speeds. 

  Lamborghini’s Part 573 Safety Recall Report affects 2,133 Urus vehicles. This type of recall means the manufacturer identified a safety defect and filed with the NHTSA. Manufacturers must submit these reports in a timely fashion after identifying the defects.

  

  “In August 2023, Lamborghini received from Europe two non-safety related warranty claims concerning misalignment between the carbon hood and the fender; Lamborghini launched an investigation with the supplier for hood vibration/noises and/or gaps and loose hood,” the Volkswagen AG-owned manufacturer noted in the report. 

  

  Lamborghini explained that “deformed rivet studs” around the “hood latch strikers” at speeds over 94 mph may create small gaps between the hood and front bumper and allow air entry that, over time, could cause “stress can cause the latch system to fail and separate the hood latch striker from the hood.” 

  

  What does this mean for Lamborghini’s top-selling model globally? Well, at high speeds, the hoods might abruptly fly open, impairing the driver’s vision. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 05/22/2024 – 19:20

• Charges Dropped Against New Jersey Gym Owner Who Defied Strict COVID Lockdown Rules
  Charges Dropped Against New Jersey Gym Owner Who Defied Strict COVID Lockdown Rules

  Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  

  The owner of a gym in New Jersey who shot to national attention after defying COVID-19 restrictions by keeping his gym open has had all charges against him dropped.

  Ian Smith, the co-owner of Atilis Gym in Bellmawr, said in a statement on the social media platform X on May 18 that the more than 80 charges against him and the gym’s co-owner Frank Trumbetti have been dropped with prejudice, meaning they cannot be revisited or refiled.

  Among the charges levied against the two men by the state were violations of a governor’s order, public nuisance, disturbing the peace, and operating without a license.

  “The support we received locally, nationally, and internationally for our stand is something I will be forever grateful for,” Mr. Smith said. “With that being said, I am thrilled to announce that we have achieved a major victory in the long, hard fight against the State.”

  Mr. Smith added that the “victory opens the battlefield again and gives us options to continue to push back and bring justice to the treasonous actions of Phil Murphy and his lackies [sic],” referencing the New Jersey Governor.

  He further thanked his “fearless attorneys,” adding that “some of the most high profile attorneys around the country ran from our case—knowing it would be a long, hard road and would make them a target of the stare.”

  “Again, thank you to all who supported us. We could not have done it without you … Nobody is coming to save you, save yourself. Spit on your hands and hoist the black flag. No quarter,” he concluded.

  Gym Owners Rack Up Millions in Fines

  Mr. Smith and Mr. Trumbetti racked up hundreds of thousands of dollars in fines—including a $15,000 per day fine—for keeping their gym open in defiance of a state-wide order instructing non-essential businesses to close during the COVID-19 pandemic in May 2020.

  The two men had argued that they had implemented a range of safety protocols at the gym and had only found a single case of the virus that could be traced back to the health facility, despite receiving upward of 84,000 visits.

  However, state officials held steady with the fines, and in December 2021, Mr. Smith said they amounted to more than $1.2 million for violating the public health emergency rules, although he stressed he had no intention of paying them.

  The two men were later arrested and charged on multiple counts, including one count of fourth-degree contempt, one count of obstruction, and one count of violation of a disaster control act, among others.

  Despite the mounting charges against them, the businessman filed a federal lawsuit against the state accusing Mr. Murphy, along with then-Attorney General Gurbir Grewal and other New Jersey police officials accusing them of violating their constitutional rights by forcing them to shut down their business.

  The Epoch Times has contacted the New Jersey Attorney General’s Office for comment.

  Mr. Smith’s legal win comes after he tried to run for Congress in 2022, challenging two-term Rep. Andy Kim (D-N.J.).

  At the time, the gym owner said he planned to run on a platform focused on “liberty, small government, and America First policies,” and vowed to fight COVID-19 mandates, soaring illegal immigration, and increased government spending.

  “For too long, good people have not gotten involved in politics—whether that is because the establishment won’t open the door for them or they don’t want to participate in the foul world of politics. More than anything, this needs to change. And I will be a part of that change,” Mr. Smith said in announcing his Congressional run.

  However, the businessman was ultimately defeated in the primary by businessman Bob Healey.

  Lorenz Duchamps contributed to this report. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 05/22/2024 – 19:00

• Hamas Leader Attends Raisi's Funeral In Tehran, Overseen By Ayatollah Khamenei
  Hamas Leader Attends Raisi’s Funeral In Tehran, Overseen By Ayatollah Khamenei

  Tens of thousands of Iranians have filled up Tehran’s streets on Wednesday for a massive funeral procession for President Ebrahim Raisi and seven other officials who died in Sunday’s helicopter crash.

  Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei led funeral prayers for the deceased, which also includes foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian. “Oh Allah, we didn’t see anything but good from him,” said Khamenei, reciting Islamic funeral verses.

  

  According an Al Jazeera correspondent who is present at ‘Freedom Square’ where memorial events are taking place, “The streets are completely closed to the traffic, [with] heavy security measures here, several security checkpoints, and you can see thousands and thousands of people are already pouring into this area.”

  Other cities also hosted memorial processions. The Associated Press details of the Khamenei-led prayers in Tehran:

  He soon left and the crowd inside rushed to the front, reaching out to touch the coffins. Iran’s acting president, Mohammad Mokhber, stood nearby and openly wept during the service.

  People then carried the coffins out on their shoulders, with chants outside of “Death to America!” They loaded them onto a semitruck-trailer for a procession through downtown Tehran to Azadi Square, or Freedom Square, where Raisi gave speeches in the past.

  Minutes ago Imam Khamenei led the funeral prayer over the bodies of President Ebrahim Raisi and his esteemed companions pic.twitter.com/eSFemTDsne

  — Khamenei.ir (@khamenei_ir) May 22, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Delegations and foreign ministers from various countries were in attendance, including Turkey’s vice president and even Taliban representatives, but among the more notable and controversial figures included Hamas’s political leader Ismail Haniyeh.

  “I come in the name of the Palestinian people, in the name of the resistance factions of Gaza … to express our condolences,” Haniyeh told the crowds.

  Hamas Chief Ismail Haniyeh attends the funeral procession of martyr President Ebrahim #Raisi and his entourage in Tehran. pic.twitter.com/RBQwDniFCf

  — IRNA News Agency (@IrnaEnglish) May 22, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Haniyeh at one point said he had heard the late president say that “the Palestinian issue” remains a central concern to all Muslims, which “must fulfil their obligations to the Palestinians to liberate their land”.

  He said that Raisi had described the Oct.7 attacks on Israel an “earthquake in the heart of the Zionist entity”.

  Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh, is all smiles today at Ebrahim Raisi’s funeral in Tehran. pic.twitter.com/4n1jBRGxlH

  — Sarah Raviani (@sarahraviani) May 22, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The bodies will later in the week be taken to South Khorasan province for additional memorial services, after which Raisi will be buried in his home city of Mashhad in the northeast the famous Shia pilgrimage site, the Imam Reza shrine.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 05/22/2024 – 18:40

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• EU Members Will Have To Arrest Netanyahu After ICC Warrant: Borrell
  EU Members Will Have To Arrest Netanyahu After ICC Warrant: Borrell

  Will Israel eventually come up with its own Hague Invasion Act? 

  EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell on Tuesday commented on the International Criminal Court (ICC) issuing arrest warrants for top Israeli officials over alleged war crimes in Gaza. He stressed in the statement that all European Union member countries will be legally required to oblige.

  He explained that if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or Defense Minister Yoav Gallant travel to a European country, they would face arrest. 

  

  He said the same for those Hamas leaders listed alongside Netanyahu: “I take note of the decision of the ICC Prosecutor to apply for warrants of arrest before Pre-Trial Chamber I of the International Criminal Court (ICC) against Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif, Ismail Haniyeh, Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant,” Borrell sated.

  “The mandate of the ICC, as an independent international institution, is to prosecute the most serious crimes under international law,” Borrell wrote on X. He emphasized “All States that have ratified the ICC statutes are bound to execute the Court’s decisions.” He said the EU has taken “note” of the world court’s action.

  With the exception of Ukraine and Turkey, all of Europe is a signatory to the Rome Statue, requiring them to apprehend those individuals ‘wanted’ by the ICC.

  The ICC has described:

  The ICC can prosecute crimes against humanity, which are serious violations committed as part of a large-scale attack against any civilian population. The 15 forms of crimes against humanity listed in the Rome Statute include offences such as murder, rape, imprisonment, enforced disappearances, enslavement – particularly of women and children, sexual slavery, torture, apartheid and deportation.

  This could impact Israeli leaders’ travel to certain places in the world. It most certainly creates diplomatic pressure to not do so in the case of destination countries which are required to make an arrest under the Rome Statute.

  The White House has said that it ‘rejects’ the ICC’s decision, while Israeli leaders have continued to rage, even calling the court’s decision ‘antisemitic’.

  “Charging me for crimes in Gaza is like charging George Bush for 9/11”
  pic.twitter.com/GhVdJyEsj1

  — The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) May 21, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The ICC’s investigation actually goes all the way back to the 2014 Israel-Hamas war. But also following Oct.7 and Israel’s invasion of Gaza, South Africa brought a fresh war crimes case – which has gained the support of countries like Turkey, but especially a number of countries of the Global South.

  The Hague-based court in March 2023 issued an arrested warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin over the Ukraine war, so this means that ironically Netanyahu is now a “wanted” man right alongside Putin.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 05/22/2024 – 02:45

• Blowback In The African Coup Belt
  Blowback In The African Coup Belt

  Authored by Marcel Dumas Gautreau via The Mises Institute,

  Starting in 2020, things started to get strange in Africa for those who knew what to look for.

  Normally, coups in Africa are nothing to write about. But starting in 2020, we saw six countries flip into a pro-Russian direction in just three years. Individually, they were a curiosity. Taken together, that rate of turnover outpaced even the most optimistic neoconservative ambitions for pro–United States regime changes in the Middle East. As General Wesley Clark summarized, “We’re going to take out seven countries in five years, starting with Iraq, and then Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and, finishing off, Iran.”

  

  That fourth country, Libya, is where our story starts.

  Muammar Gaddafi and the Disposal Problem

  In 2011, the US and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization destroyed the regime of Muammar Gaddafi. They had wanted to do it for a long time. A true cosmopolitan, Gaddafi had provided lawyers, guns, and money to black nationalists in South Africa, Palestinian Nationalists in Tunisia, Irish Nationalists in the British Isles, White Nationalists in Canada, and Armenian Nationalists in Turkey. The one ideology for which the Brotherly Leader and Guide of the Revolution had no patience or tolerance was radical Islamic Salafi jihadism. In March 1998, Libya was the first country to issue an Interpol arrest warrant for Osama bin Laden. The warrant received no attention or action. Five months later, Al-Qaeda bombed the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, killing 224.

  In September 2001, President George W. Bush told Congress that “every nation, in every region, now has a decision to make. Either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists.” Gaddafi took the US up on the offer, dismantling its weapons of mass destruction program under the United Nations’ supervision. It paid over $1 billion in reparations to victims of terrorism to get removed from the State Sponsor of Terror list. In 2008, future US Ambassador to Libya (and Benghazi embassy casualty) J. Christopher Stephens reported that “Libya has been a strong partner in the war against terrorism and cooperation in liaison channels is excellent.”

  Gaddafi had been highly suspicious of the citizens who chose to join the brave Mujahideen fighters of Afghanistan and surveilled them extensively, dutifully reporting them to other intelligence agencies whenever possible. In one particularly obscene case, a Guantanamo detainee named Abu Sufian Ibrahim Ahmed Hamuda bin Qumu was on the ground leading the Salafi jihadist group “Supporters of Sharia.” While hundreds are held in Guantanamo, being tortured without trial, the US knowingly released what it deemed a “probable member of al-Qaeda and a member of the African Extremist Network” to tear things up in Libya for them. A United Kingdom Parliamentary retrospective on the Libya overthrow later admitted, “The possibility that militant extremist groups would attempt to benefit from the rebellion should not have been the preserve of hindsight. Libyan connections with transnational militant extremist groups were known before 2011, because many Libyans had participated in the Iraq insurgency and in Afghanistan with al-Qaeda.”

  Gaddafi made a series of dire warnings of what would happen if he died:

  “Libya plays a vital role in regional peace and world peace,” he said in an interview with the France 24 television station. “We are an important partner in fighting al Qaeda.”

  “There are millions of blacks who could come to the Mediterranean to cross to France and Italy, and Libya plays a role in security in the Mediterranean.”

  Saif Gaddafi likewise warned, “Libya may become the Somalia of North Africa, of the Mediterranean. You will see the pirates in Sicily, in Crete, in Lampedusa. You will see millions of illegal immigrants. The terror will be next door.” While the Mediterranean didn’t see a resurgence of literal piracy, Gaddafi’s predictions were otherwise correct if not conservative.

  Within five years, US military officials openly conceded that Libya was a failed state. In February 2015, the International Crisis Group warned, “On the current trajectory, the most likely medium-term prospect is not one side’s triumph, but that rival local warlords and radical groups will proliferate, what remains of state institutions will collapse, financial reserves . . . will be depleted, and hardship for ordinary Libyans will increase exponentially.”

  As predicted, millions of blacks flocked to Libya’s Mediterranean coast to cross into France and Italy. Many were beaten, raped, and starved in what the United Nations Children’s Fund called “living hellholes” or even sold in open-air slave markets. On the Italian island of Lampedusa, it is not unheard of thirteen years later for hundreds or thousands of illegal African migrants to land in a single night. On May 22, 2017, in a manifestation of what former Senate Foreign Relations Committee investigative counsel Jack Blum called a “disposal problem,” a Manchester-born Libyan named Salman Abedi returned from his MI5-sponsored jihad in Libya and blew himself to pieces in the middle of an Ariana Grande concert. He killed himself and twenty-two others in an audience primarily composed of young girls.

  As the second phase of Hillary Clinton’s “bank shot,” the overthrow of Libya’s government and the looting of its arsenals allowed the Central Intelligence Agency to direct those weapons to jihadis in Syria. The scourges of the Islamic world would also use this windfall of weapons to brutalize populations across Africa’s Sahel region, most notably in Mali. After 2011, countries in the Sahel experienced between a tenfold and twentyfold increase in deadly Islamic terror incidents from groups like Boko Haram and the Islamic State following what Vision of Humanity calls a “Jihadization of Banditry.”

  French Africa and the Series of Coups

  After seizing power in 1969, Gaddafi moved in 1973 to seize land in the former French colony of Chad based on older colonial boundaries between Italy and France. In 1979, Libya intervened in the Chadian civil war on the side of Goukouni Oueddei. When Oueddei demanded the withdrawal of Libyan troops, Libya withdrew from the nondisputed territories. Goukouni implicitly affirmed the new border. France backed Hissène Habré to take over in 1982. General Idriss Déby played a pivotal role in dislodging Libyan troops from northern Chad, but France and President Habré feared his growing influence, exiling him to Sudan.

  Gaddafi began supporting Déby’s efforts to raise an army and take over Chad in 1990. When Déby successfully took power, the former rivals became quick friends. Libya withdrew from the disputed strip in 1994, and the two countries locked in a series of security, trade, and refugee resettlement agreements. Most importantly, the two cooperated extensively as two points in a chain along with Nigeria against Islamic militants. In 2021, Déby was killed in battle against Saudi-funded rebels, backed by elements of one of Libya’s three competing revolutionary governments.

  During his rapprochement with the West, Gaddafi and Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi signed the 2008 Treaty of Benghazi. Italy apologized for colonialism and agreed to pay Libya $5 billion in reparations over twenty years. More importantly, Italy and the European Union would fully modernize Libya’s border patrol infrastructure, including satellite detection and a joint Italian-Libyan coastal patrol to stop the flow of illegal migrants into Europe. With Gaddafi’s death and the failure of any Libyan faction to consolidate control, this infrastructure fell to tatters.

  In January 2019, Italy’s populist right began a diplomatic offensive against France, blaming the Republic’s policies in Africa for the migrant flood. At a rally, deputy prime minister Luigi Di Maio posed the question, “If today people are leaving Africa is it because some European countries, with France taking the lead, have never stopped colonizing tens of African states?”

  Matteo Salvini likewise said,

  There are countries that steal wealth from Africa and France is definitely one of them. France has no interest in making Libya a better place. Paris is interested in taking control of the oil there. And their interests are opposed to the Italian ones. I’m proud to govern a generous country. We don’t take lessons on humanity from France, let alone from Macron. In recent years, France turned back thousands of migrants, including women and children. They took them back to Italy in the middle of the night, like animals. Again, I don’t take lesson from Macron.

  Future prime minister Giorgia Meloni joined the attack, explaining to a television audience the CFA franc, “the colonial currency that France prints for 14 African nations to which it applies seigniorage and by virtue of which it exploits the resources of these nations.” Holding a picture of a child at the bottom of a Burkina Faso gold mine, she concluded that “the solution is not to take Africans and bring them to Europe, the solution is to free Africa from certain Europeans who exploit it.”

  In its defense, the CFA franc has historically been less inflationary than currencies in adjacent African nations. Still, for once, it was not completely unfair and ahistorical to single out France as particularly incompetent. France’s former colonies have fared unusually poorly relative to those of other colonial powers. From de jure decolonization in 1960 until the end of the Cold War, France launched over a hundred military expeditions into its former African colonies. After the Cold War, more than three-quarters of the coups in sub-Saharan Africa were in former French colonies.

  Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger were the worst hit by the Islamic terror wave. Straddling the border between the three countries is the “Islamic State of the Greater Sahara.” After repeated failures of the French-backed governments to dislodge the insurgents, the militaries seized power with popular support. Sudan, Guinea, and Gabon were likewise overthrown, creating a continuous “coup belt” running from Sudan on the Red Sea to Guinea on the Atlantic. On March 24, Senegal elected Bassirou Diomaye as president, who has vowed to take the country off the CFA franc.

  Russia, Russia, Russia

  The new military governments of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger formed the Alliance of Sahel States, all of them leaving the Nigeria-dominated and Western-backed Economic Community of West African States. They then announced that French troops were no longer welcome in the countries, and that they would instead be welcoming protection and training from Russia’s Wagner Group.

  The Wagner Group was originally a mercenary company run by the Russian oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin. In July 2023, Russia hosted a summit in Saint Petersburg, at which Putin announced he would write off $23 billion in debt owed by various African countries. The conference was one of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s last appearances in public after his failed June 2023 coup and before his accidental August 2023 plane crash. Wagner in Africa has been renamed as the Africa Corps, rumored to be directly managed by Russian military intelligence. Russia began offering “regime survival packages” to countries in Africa, in exchange for access to mineral resources. Russia threatens to cut off privileged French access to Nigeran uranium reserves, which are responsible for the production of 12 percent of France’s electricity.

  The US also has a direct stake in the form of two Africa Command bases in Niger, one of which completed construction in 2019 as an intelligence center and a launchpad for Reaper drones. The Agadez and Niamey bases are critical to surveillance across Central Africa. Besides an unknown number of intelligence agents, there are one thousand US troops in the country, and the new Niger government has insisted that they are not welcome. US Undersecretary of State for Africa Molly Phee visited Niger twice in March, but so far, the Nigerien government has shown no sign of budging.

  After September 11, 2001, the neoconservatives schemed to dominate the entire Middle East and North Africa. Instead, imperial arrogance and outright perfidy may well have put the country on the path to losing it all.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 05/22/2024 – 02:00

• Election 2024: A Political Renaissance For America Or The Path To Totalitarianism
  Election 2024: A Political Renaissance For America Or The Path To Totalitarianism

  Authored by James E. Fanell and Bradley A. Thayer via American Greatness,

  It has been decades in the making, but the country is now on the precipice between its traditional ideology of political liberalism and a path that will lead, far sooner than Americans might think, to totalitarianism. The historical bulwarks of Americanism and the American political system—government of the people, freedom, and liberty—have been deliberately eroded. A citizenry steeped in republican virtue, cognizant of the political ideas and principles that made America a lasting and strong constitutional republic, and knowledgeable about the duties and obligations of American citizenship have been under daily assault for years from the foreign ideology of communism. That odious ideology has operated under synonyms such as “progressivism,” “multiculturalism,” or DEI to make its poison more palatable to American audiences.

  

  The media—the so-called “Fourth Estate”—has been another layer of protection that has been peeled away. Today, they are activists advancing the left’s agenda in all but name. Great newspapers that were lively to read and informative are no longer. One reads them now the same way Soviet citizens used to read Pravda—only by knowing the lies that are printed and surmising what is left out of the story can one come close to knowing the truth. Compare the front page of the New York Times from fifty, forty, or thirty years ago to one today, and the change is telling and sad to see. Rather than a robust culture of free speech, censorship is pervasive by the legacy and social media, Big Tech, and by a ubiquitous and devilish culture of self-censorship.

  American universities were once the envy of the world, as lively academies of intellectual debate and devoted to the pursuit of knowledge are now factories of indoctrination. Their law, medical, engineering, and business schools have also been transformed into political instruments that advance the “Party Line.” Unbelievably, thought control in K-12 is even worse. Popular culture fell a long time ago, and most of it is simply a contemporary version of Soviet entertainment where the heroic worker and peasant defeat the evil capitalist and priest. Worse still is the promotion of degeneracy and decadence with gender reassignment led by a teacher’s union that more resembles a Clockwork Orange ensemble than as the protectors of the most vulnerable in our society—our children.

  As alarming as these developments are, what is worse is the permanent weaponization of government against political opponents. The raids, indictments, trials, and gag orders for a former president and leading 2024 candidate demonstrate that the Constitutional rights of the most prominent political figure in American politics in this century can have his rights violated, so too can all Americans. The lawfare employed against President Trump has been specifically designed by the left to consume his time and other resources away from his campaign for President in this critically important election year.

  Of course, it is not only Trump. The imprisonment of former Trump official Peter Navarro and perhaps of Trump advisor Steve Bannon is an attempt to decapitate the Make America Great Again Movement through their imprisonment and to send a message to others about what will happen to anyone who opposes the state. The persecution of Trump’s legal advisor, John Eastman, is a similar tactic. The result is that law firms will be reluctant to accept the movement’s legal challenges. These actions are the first strike in the left’s campaign of “lawfare” to disarm Trump and to deter any Republican challenge to the parameters of the election and its aftermath. It is also political muscle flexing in an attempt to intimidate anyone who would assist Trump’s campaign and an effort to demoralize his base. After the British executed Admiral John Byng in 1757, Voltaire wrote it was “to encourage the others,” and so it is today.

  The irony of the many steps taken by the left to advance a totalitarian agenda is that it is they who falsely proclaim that it is Trump and the MAGA movement that are the fascists. It is the left that is actually implementing such vile and anti-American practices against their political enemies and the American people. Recently, former 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton was once again on the Sunday news shows talking about how Donald Trump would arrest his political enemies, while in reality it is only the Democratic Party and the Biden administration that have put Peter Navarro in prison, may imprison Bannon, and indicted the former President 92 times.

  This cannot stand if America is to survive as a constitutional republic. If it does, then the country is on the path to totalitarianism. Totalitarianism does not just show up one day, springing forth fully formed like Athena from the head of Zeus. But it does come quickly, more so than most Americans realize, as the ideology, laws, norms, and culture are eroded by the new revolutionary regime. When they seized power in 1917, the Bolsheviks did not know how far they could push the Russian people, but that was not for lack of intent or for a lack trying. Their ambition was to remake everything—culture, politics, economics, the arts, science, diplomacy, education, values, and thought. Every year, they tightened their grip until they crushed the people in the horrors of Stalinism. It took only twenty years from the time the Bolsheviks came to power to the show trials of mature Stalinism.

  Nothing is decided and there will be many ups and downs, twists and turns, and surprises between now and Election Day. The election of 2024 is critical and as important as any in its history. Assuming the election’s fidelity—that this assumption must be made is an indication of how close the country is flirting with totalitarianism—it will provide Americans with the clearest choice in our history since the Civil War. When that choice is understood to be one between the continuation of the American Republic or to enter the hell of totalitarianism, the election will spark a renaissance of America’s traditional political ideology, institutions, values and culture. This election provides the opportunity to drive a stake through the heart of totalitarianism “with an American face,” as Americans, having seen into the abyss, will reject the totalitarian path. A re-birth of the understanding of the value of American citizenship—that spirit of 1776—and of our inalienable and universal freedoms can come from the 2024 election.

  To ensure that positive outcome will require not only support for President Trump but also extraordinary vigilance by the American people through the election and its aftermath.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/21/2024 – 23:40

• Where It's Most & Least Common To Be LGBT+
  Where It’s Most & Least Common To Be LGBT+

  Around seven percent of adults identify as LGBT+, according to a survey conducted online in 43 countries between April 2023 and March 2024 by Statista Consumer Insights.

  But, as Statista’s Anna Fleck shows in the following chart, there’s notable variation between countries.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  The Philippines, the United States and Israel had the highest share of people identifying as LGBT+, at 11 percent each, while Thailand and Canada came in a close joint second place with 10 percent of adults, followed by Sweden, Brazil and Australia, each with 9 percent. When looking at sexual orientation in the U.S., 3 percent of respondents identified as gay, 6 percent as bisexual and one percent pansexual.

  At the lower end of the spectrum comes South Korea and Romania with 3 percent of adults identifying as LGBT+ in each. There was also considerable variation across age groups. In the U.S. for example, 20 percent of Gen Zers self-identified as a part of the LGBT+ community versus 11 percent of Millennials, 6 percent of Gen Xers and only 5 percent among Baby Boomers.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/21/2024 – 23:20

• The Audacity Of Merrick Garland: Julie Kelly
  The Audacity Of Merrick Garland: Julie Kelly

  Authored by Julie Kelly via The Florida Capital Star (emphasis ours),

  FBI agents last week arrested a man from Maine for his involvement in the events of January 6. According to a Department of Justice press release, Lincoln Deming spent about 30 minutes inside the building after entering through an open door with Capitol Police standing by. Deming faces numerous charges including civil disorder and the dreaded “parading” in the Capitol misdemeanor.

  

  The DOJ bragged in the press release about the government’s scalp count for its unprecedented prosecution of Jan 6 protesters. “More than 1,424 individuals have been charged in nearly all 50 states for crimes related to the breach of the U.S. Capitol,” Matthew Graves, the Joe Biden-appointed U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia, boasted. The investigation into the four-hour disturbance, Graves warned, is “ongoing.”

  Indeed. The DOJ, astonishingly, is on pace to arrest one J6 protester a day this year; Graves has stated his intention to bring the total caseload to at least 2,000 defendants before the statute of limitations expires.

  If DOJ Didn’t Have Double Standards, It Would Have No Standards at All…Oh Wait

  At the same time, the DOJ refuses to bring federal charges against pro-Palestinian demonstrators who in many instances engaged in similar if not worse conduct inside Congressional buildings over the past six months.

  Graves’ spokeswoman recently confirmed to me via email that all cases stemming from arrests of pro-Palestinian protesters are being handled by the local D.C. prosecutor.

  In other words, no federal obstruction of an official proceeding indictments against those who repeatedly interrupted Senate and House hearings to protest against the Israel-Gaza war. No federal “parading” charges for demonstrators who unlawfully occupied government buildings in Washington on multiple occasions. Even demonstrators who assaulted Capitol police outside the DNC headquarters last November do not face federal charges — a shocking double-standard since hundreds of J6ers have been federally charged with assault on police, even for minor confrontations, often resulting in lengthy prison sentences and pretrial detention in several cases.

  Which makes recent comments by Attorney General Merrick Garland all the more outrageous — and demonstrably false. Before two House committees voted Thursday to advance contempt of Congress against Garland for defying a congressional subpoena demanding the audio recording of Biden’s interview with Special Counsel Robert Hur last year, Garland mustered his most sanctimonious self to explain how House Republicans, not him, threaten the legitimacy of the DOJ — a “fundamental institution of our democracy,” Garland claimed. (Garland advised Biden to invoke executive privilege to prevent producing the tapes to Congress; Biden only too happily accepted his counsel.)

  Garland audaciously claimed politics plays no role in determining what investigations his department pursues.

  Without political influence?

  If the country had a real news media instead of boot-lickers who ask Garland about his hurt feelings when people criticize the DOJ, at least one reporter would have confronted Garland about the ongoing prosecution of J6ers while letting Hamasurrectionists off the hook.

  A reporter would have asked Garland how many times the DOJ seeks pretrial detention for political protesters accused of assaulting police, as the DOJ has done in dozens of J6 cases.

  A reporter would have asked Garland how often the FBI conducts armed raids of Americans accused of nonviolent offenses, as the FBI has done in hundreds of J6 cases and continues to do.

  A reporter would have asked Garland about the possibility the Supreme Court will reverse how his DOJ has applied a post-Enron statute against 350 or so J6ers, turning many otherwise nonviolent protesters into convicted felons.

  A reporter also would have asked Garland about two recent D.C. appellate court decisions that overturned excessive sentencing requests made by the DOJ.

  A reporter would have asked Garland why he authorized an armed FBI raid of Mar-a-Lago to search for classified documents but didn’t do the same for Joe Biden or Mike Pence.

  A reporter would have asked Garland why he should not be held in contempt of Congress for defying a House subpoena while his prosecutors indicted both Steve Bannon and Peter Navarro — who is currently doing time in a Miami prison — for contempt after they defied subpoenas by the January 6 Select Committee.

  A reporter would have asked Garland why his office just boasted about imprisoning several individuals including two women in their 70s for protesting outside a D.C. abortion clinic in 2020 while nearly all federal charges against 2020 BLM rioters have been dropped.

  You get the drift.

  The fascinating backdrop here is that the Biden regime and news media warn a second Trump presidency will result in a crusade of retribution and retaliation against his sworn enemies — including DOJ and FBI officials.

  Given Garland’s performance as attorney general, one can only hope that’s true.

  Part of Garland’s letter to Biden

  

  Julie Kelly is an independent journalist covering the weaponization of the U.S. Government against her citizens, Follow Kelly on Twitter / X.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/21/2024 – 23:00

• San Francisco Remains The Top Startup City On The World
  San Francisco Remains The Top Startup City On The World

  A richly connected network of founders, venture capital firms, and tech talent are some of the key ingredients driving a startup ecosystem.

  As engines of growth, these tech clusters are evolving on a global scale. While the world’s leading startup cities are concentrated in America, several ecosystems, such as Beijing and Seoul, are growing in prominence as countries focus on technological advancement to spur innovation.

  This graphic, via Visual Capitalist’s Dororthy Neufeld, shows the best startup cities worldwide, based on data from Pitchbook.

  

  The Global Startup Ecosystem Rankings

  To determine the rankings, each city was analyzed based on the scale and maturity of their startup ecosystem over a six-year period ending in the second quarter of 2023.

  Among the inputs analyzed and used to calculate the overall development score were fundraising activity, venture capital deals, and exit value:

  

  San Francisco dominates the pack, with $427.6 billion in capital raised over the six-year period.

  Despite a challenging funding environment, nearly 20,000 deals closed, highlighting its outsized role in launching tech startups. Both OpenAI and rival Anthropic are headquartered in the city, thanks to its broad pool of tech talent and venture capital firms. Overall, 11,812 startups were based in the San Francisco Bay Area in 2023, equal to about 20% of startups in America.

  Falling next in line is New York City, which raised $179.9 billion over the same time period. Crypto firm Gemini and machine learning company, Hugging Face, are two examples of startups based in the city.

  As the top-ranking hub outside of America, Beijing is home to TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance, which is one of the most valuable private companies in the world.

  In recent years, much of the startup funding in China is being driven by government-backed funds. In particular, these funds are focusing heavily on “hard tech” such as semiconductor-makers and electric vehicle companies that align with the government’s strategic long-term goals.

  Another leading tech hub, Singapore, has the highest venture capital funding per capita worldwide. In 2023, this was equal to an impressive $1,060 in venture funding per person. By comparison, venture funding was $345 per person in the U.S., the second-highest globally.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/21/2024 – 22:40

• Joe Biden's Problem Is In the Pews
  Joe Biden’s Problem Is In the Pews

  Authored by Salena Zito & Brad Todd via RealClearPolitics,

  To locate Joe Biden’s electoral problem, you need only to look on Sunday morning. Polling shows the mass-attending Catholic president trails Donald Trump by 10 points among those who attend religious services a few times a year or more. The score is reversed with voters who report they seldom or never attend church, with Biden leading by 10.

  

  It’s the starkest divide in the electorate – and one that political journalists rarely mention, perhaps because, as a profession, journalists are more removed from religion than the average American.

  Trump’s advantage with white evangelical Protestants is widely understood, but he also leads Biden by healthy margins among less politically conservative Christians. These findings in the recent Marquette Law School’s national poll of registered voters showed Biden trailing Trump by 18 percentage points with other members of his own Catholic faith, and behind Trump by 16 among adherents of mainline protestant denominations, which would include groups like Methodists, Presbyterians, and Episcopalians.

  Those numbers are in the same range as the 24-point lead Trump posts among self-described “born-again” evangelicals. The same poll shows the race is reversed with non-Christian voters, with whom Biden holds a commanding 33-point advantage.

  The irony of this schism proves a dynamic that is larger than these two men. Biden would tell you his Catholicism is integral to his own self-identity. Trump, meanwhile, was a high-living playboy who said he’d never asked God for forgiveness for anything, situating himself well outside the theology and lifestyle of most Christians.

  In 2018, we wrote a book examining the realignment that brought Trump to power and identified what we called “King Cyrus Christians” as an important archetype in Trump’s coalition. These voters, mostly Catholic or evangelical Protestants, adopted Trump’s candidacy pragmatically, seeing in him a warrior who would battle their common political enemies. And with control of the Supreme Court in the balance in that 2016 election, they forged an alliance of necessity.

  Survey research conducted for our book found these King Cyrus Christians (so named in a nod to the pagan Persian king who had delivered ancient Jews back to Israel and rebuilt their temple in Jerusalem) were not initially Trump’s most enthusiastic backers. Instead, the shock troops of first-wave Trumpism were the most secular and least traditional Republicans – and many were not Republican at all.

  But over time, religious Republicans have gotten more comfortable with Trump, owing to his kept promise to deliver a conservative Supreme Court that not only reversed decades of erosion in religious liberty but also overturned the Roe v. Wade abortion precedent. Politics is about coalitions, and the arrangement between Trump and conservative Christians indisputably has delivered benefits for both sides.

  Trump’s 2016 nomination was powered by secular Republicans, but his 2024 re-nomination showed no such schism. If anything, it was the reverse. Polling in the two GOP contests most dominated by religious voters, the Iowa Caucus and the South Carolina primary, showed him doing modestly better among evangelical than non-evangelical Republicans.

  The religious divide that matters going forward in American politics is not about Trump, and it’s not about white evangelical Protestants. The question is whether Democrats can keep a place in their party for other religiously devout voters.

  Democrats’ best electoral group – the so-called “nones,” those with no religious affiliation – is growing, particularly among younger generations. But as the party becomes dominated by those who actively reject religion, its platform becomes less appealing to those who don’t, as many Jewish Democrats are discovering as left-wing radicals show an ugly antisemitic side and opposition to America’s alliance with the Jewish state of Israel.

  While “nones” are rising overall, they aren’t distributed proportionately around the country, clustering disproportionately on the coasts. If Democrats drive out the religious voters in their ranks, they will struggle to compete in a geographic footprint large enough to enable them to control Congress or win in the electoral college.

  Hispanic voters, another growing slice of the electorate, are moving quickly away from Democrats. Florida offers the perfect case study for that drift, as voters of Puerto Rican, Cuban, and Columbian descent have helped transform what was recently America’s quintessential swing state into a Republican fortress. Nervous Democratic strategists are on guard for the same dynamic playing out next in Nevada and Arizona.

  Pew Research data shows Hispanics are about half as likely as whites to say they do not believe in God, while African Americans, long the bulwark of the Democratic Party, are five times less likely than whites to express disbelief. Blacks also attend church more than whites do, report reading the Bible more than whites, and say they pray more than whites, according to respected church researchers at Barna Group.

  While Democrats can still count on topping 90% with blacks in most elections, the three trends driving realignment – religiosity, education density, and the blue-collar/white-collar divide – will put that loyalty to the test in coming years, and maybe sooner than pundits expect.

  A Democratic Party platform that is growing ever more hostile to traditional religious mores on social policy, on Israel, and on issues surrounding religious liberty may find it difficult to keep enough blacks, Hispanics, and Jews on board to win enough states to govern.

  Political realignment works like the tectonic plates in the earth’s crust. The masses of land, or of voters, tend to keep moving, even if that movement is only noticed when it results in an earthquake. Smart political geologists will be watching how believers vote in this election.

  Salena Zito is a reporter for the Washington Examiner, Wall Street Journal contributor, and co-author of “The Great Revolt: Inside the Populist Coalition Reshaping American Politics.”

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/21/2024 – 22:20

• The Great 'McFlation': Bidenomics' Failure Revealed In One Chart
  The Great ‘McFlation’: Bidenomics’ Failure Revealed In One Chart

  The primary appeal of fast-food burgers (even though the food is horrible for your health) is cheap and fast. In recent weeks, McDonald’s indirectly admitted that three years of ‘McFlation‘ was crushing burger demand among working-poor consumers, and there was an urgent need within the burger chain to reintroduce the $5 meal deal. 

  X users have been disgusted with $18 Big Mac meals at some of the burger chain’s restaurants nationwide.

  This was at a rest stop, but these McDonald’s prices are nuts right??? pic.twitter.com/0qq8Ima3ZA

  — Sam Learner (@sam_learner) July 18, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Some were even reminded of the good old days when the same meal cost $5—right before the GFC and right before the Federal Reserve embarked on a decade of zero-bound interest rates and trillions of dollars in money printing that fueled financial asset bubbles. 

  These prices at McDonald’s sure looks like the dollar is in crash mode $18 for a Big Mac meal this use to be $5 in 2008 pic.twitter.com/5rpcrNtaul

  — Golden Coast (Cassandra) (@GregCrennan) February 20, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Fast forward to today, the persistent inflation storm is being driven by the US Treasury spending like it’s in a depression (or spending an absurd $1 trillion every 100 days).

  Bidenomics’ stealth stimulus has resulted in massive economic miscalculation by the federal government and the Federal Reserve. It’s not just ZeroHedge saying this, but Duquesne Family Office Chairman & CEO Stan Druckenmiller recently gave Bidenomics an “F.” 

  

  Real wages for most consumers have been terrible under Biden’s first term. But not under Trump’s… 

  

  As the election cycle heats up, X user End Wokeness has reminded everyone about elevated food inflation impacting menu prices at McDonald’s, Taco Bell, and Chick-fil-A. The data compared year-end 2019 menu prices at the three restaurants with current prices. The results are startling: Some menu items are up triple digits in several or so years. 

  

  Food inflation has been problematic for Biden’s campaign team to navigate. They’ve already given up on ‘Bidenomics.’ 

  More recently, Biden’s team has used popular buzzwords ‘greedflation’ and ‘shrinkflation‘ to convince voters why Big Macs in certain states and towns now cost $18. This is a significant pivot from blaming ‘Putin Price Hikes’ for every economic mishap. 

  It’s difficult to believe Biden’s greedflation story because government data shows that retail prices for ground beef and chicken have surged and remained elevated. Also, major commodity indexes tracked by Bloomberg and the United Nations have yet to come back down to Earth. All of this indicates companies had to push up prices to protect margins. 

  

  The current issue is that inflation is being driven by reaccelerating commodity prices, while the US government is spending as if it’s in a depression.

  Meanwhile, clueless Democrats who ignore out-of-control government spending as the root cause of inflation are demanding price controls on food, similar to what communists or socialists do in third-world countries. The only problem with that is that price controls can trigger shortages or surpluses, longer lines, lower quality products, and, of course, misallocation of products.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/21/2024 – 22:00

• Court Lets Lawsuit Over Refusal To Give Dying Woman Ivermectin Proceed
  Court Lets Lawsuit Over Refusal To Give Dying Woman Ivermectin Proceed

  Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  A court has rejected a hospital system’s claim that its refusal to continue giving ivermectin to a dying woman was covered by federal law, stating that the law does not apply to the actions in question.

  

  Mount Sinai South Nassau in New York City was twice forced to give COVID-19 patient Deborah Bucko, who was close to death after the system’s normal treatment failed, ivermectin under court order. Mrs. Bucko’s condition improved after she began taking ivermectin.

  However, the system stopped the second round of treatment before the prescription ended, and Mrs. Bucko then died.

  After being sued, Mount Sinai said the lawsuit should be thrown out because it’s immune under the Public Readiness and Emergency Preparedness Act (PREP Act), which covers health care workers administering drugs and vaccines during a health emergency, such as the COVID-19 pandemic.

  “There is no refuting that the complaint is a frontal attack on the use of COVID-19 countermeasures as defined by the PREP Act,” lawyers for the hospital system said in a filing. “The complaint expressly implicates conduct encompassed by the PREP Act by alleging a claim for loss that has a causal relationship with the dispensing and administration of covered countermeasures to treat COVID-19. As such, the law requires its dismissal.”

  The act has been successfully invoked in a range of COVID-19-related cases. Workers who injected a child with a COVID-19 vaccine without parental consent, for instance, recently won the dismissal of a lawsuit by citing the law.

  The motion to dismiss by Mount Sinai, though, was rejected by New York Supreme Court Justice Randy Sue Marber.

  Justice Marber wrote in a May 17 order that Mount Sinai, its workers, and ivermectin, fit under the definitions of “covered person” and “covered countermeasure” under the law. But the suit against the system does not bring a claim relating to the use of ivermectin to treat COVID-19, she said.

  “Rather, in stunning contrast to South Nassau’s assertions, the complaint alleges, with particularity, that South Nassau ‘acted wrongfully and negligently, by repeatedly refusing to administer ivermectin to … [the decedent]’ notwithstanding it ‘having been prescribed” … and ’despite clear evidence in the medical records that … [the decedent’s] condition showed significant improvement once the ivermectin treatment was initiated,’” the justice said, quoting from the complaint.

  That means the immunity conferred by PREP “is inapplicable,” she added later.

  The ruling means the case will move forward. The next hearing is scheduled to take place on June 3.

  “Scott and I are extremely pleased that the judge denied the hospital’s motion and has given us a fighting chance to obtain justice for Debbie,” Steven Warshawsky, a lawyer representing Scott Mantel, Mrs. Bucko’s husband, told The Epoch Times via email.

  Mount Sinai did not respond to a request for comment.

  Federal regulators say people should not take ivermectin against COVID-19, although a number of doctors have said patients who received the drug, approved by regulators for other uses, have recovered quickly. Some studies have found evidence of a benefit, while others have not.

  

  Background

  Mr. Mantel sued Mount Sinai in 2023, alleging the hospital system violated a law that enables representatives of decedents to sue over “wrongful act, neglect or default causing [the] death of [the] decedent.”

  According to the suit, after being admitted to Mount Sinai with suspected COVID-19, Mrs. Bucko’s condition was not improved by the system’s standard treatment protocols, including supplemental oxygen. She was ultimately placed on a ventilator.

  Mr. Mantel researched alternative treatments and read about how some patients recovered after being treated with ivermectin. He learned that the Front Line Covid-19 Critical Care Alliance features ivermectin in its COVID-19 treatment protocol.

  Mr. Mantel presented what he had learned to doctors at Mount Sinai. Dr. Robert Clark, one of the doctors, said that he was “all out of bullets” and that ivermectin might be able to help Mrs. Bucko. He wrote a prescription on April 7, 2021, for five days. Mount Sinai’s pharmacy department, though, placed the prescription on hold and the system’s stewardship committee rescinded the prescription.

  Mr. Mantel took the matter to court, resulting in an order to immediately start giving Mrs. Bucko ivermectin.

  After being treated with ivermectin, Mrs. Bucko’s condition improved, according to the suit. The initial prescription ended, and her recovery stalled. Mr. Mantel went back to Dr. Clark, who was said to have acknowledged ivermectin helped Mrs. Bucko get better and could keep helping her improve. He wrote another prescription, this time for 35 days.

  The hospital rescinded the prescription again, prompting the family to seek legal redress. The system was ordered again to enforce the prescription.

  Mrs. Bucko improved further with the second round of ivermectin, but the system changed the prescription and stopped administering it after five days. Dr. Clark also informed Mr. Mantel he was being prevented from writing any additional ivermectin prescriptions.

  Once Mrs. Bucko stopped receiving ivermectin, her condition deteriorated, her family says. She died on on May 16, 2021.

  Mount Sinai “committed medical malpractice and/or otherwise acted wrongfully and negligently, by repeatedly refusing to administer ivermectin to Ms. Bucko, who was suffering from severe COVID-19 illness that was not responding to the hospital’s standard treatment protocols, despite the ivermectin having been prescribed by her treating infectious disease doctor … and despite clear evidence in the medical records that Ms. Bucko’s condition showed significant improvement once the ivermectin treatment was initiated,” the suit stated.

  The family is seeking damages as determined by the court and a jury.

  “This fight is not just about Deborah and our family, but also for ALL Americans that will one day need a hospital to treat them,” family members said in a fundraiser. “What happened to Deborah must never ever be allowed to happen again, and those responsible for her tragic death must be held accountable.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/21/2024 – 21:40

• Republicans Call For Drug Testing Ahead Of Presidential Debates
  Republicans Call For Drug Testing Ahead Of Presidential Debates

  Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

  Several Republicans are calling for Joe Biden to undergo drug testing before taking part in the presidential debates with Donald Trump scheduled for June and September.

  

  South Carolina Senator Tom Scott was asked to comment on the issue on Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures” and responded “Why not?” when asked if substance tests should be carried out. 

  “The truth of the matter is if you saw the State of the Union and you watched that performance, it was surreal,” Scott noted of Biden’s speech in March.

  “There was something going on, and if we could find the truth of what it was, we’re all better off,” Scott added.

  Tim Scott to Maria Bartiromo on Trump: “He doesn’t need a teleprompter!” (Complaining about his teleprompter is something Trump does almost every speech … ) pic.twitter.com/XPy7QgNDGI

  — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) May 19, 2024

  “If it takes artificial stimulation to make the President of the United States perform, how often can he do that?” The Senator further pondered.

  Representative Anna Paulina Luna of Florida also called for Biden to be drug tested, noting “We’re talking about someone who has the ability to launch nukes.”

  There should be required drugs tests before the debates.
  pic.twitter.com/ugsi2nFfo7

  — Anna Paulina Luna (@realannapaulina) May 19, 2024

  Luna also referred to questions over Biden’s mental competence following the comments of former special counsel Robert Hur who described Biden as an “elderly man with a poor memory.”

  North Carolina Representative Greg Murphy, who is also a trained surgeon, commented that Biden “must have been jacked up on something” during the SOTU speech.

  “I absolutely believe that from a medical viewpoint, actually I have a little bit of good knowledge that that happened,” Murphy asserted, adding that Biden “can’t stand it. He can’t stand under the lights for that long. And I don’t think he can keep a concept in his brain that long.”

  “What do you mean when you say he was jacked up?” Republican Rep. Greg Murphy, who is a practicing surgeon, claims President Biden was under the influence of some kind of performance enhancer during his State of the Union address…and Murphy has “evidence”. (Video: Fox Business) pic.twitter.com/zdQumaobJy

  — Mike Sington (@MikeSington) May 16, 2024

  Trump himself has called for Biden to take a drug test, noting “I don’t want him coming in like the State of the Union. He was high as a kite.”

  🚨Trump says he is going to demand Biden take a drug test for the debate because Biden was “high as a kite” during the SOTU! 🪁 pic.twitter.com/dbnWB5pWFK

  — Jenna Fredo (@LynkLuv) May 18, 2024

  “I said is that Joe up there? … And by the end of the evening … he was exhausted, right? No, we’re going to demand a drug test,” Trump added.

  The proposal has moved further into the spotlight spurred by a bizarre video that circulated Friday of Biden wide eyed and looking completely different to his usual squint while making a short recorded statement.

  What is going on here? https://t.co/CXDJireFWe

  — m o d e r n i t y (@ModernityNews) May 19, 2024

  As we have highlighted, Biden has agreed to take part in only two debates, despite Trump accepting two more proposals from Fox News and NBC/Telemundo, and calling for further debates to be scheduled.

  Vivek Ramaswamy believes that the Democrats are allowing Biden one last “Hail Mary” by allowing him to participate in a debate against Donald Trump, but that if he fails, as he inevitably will, they will swap him out for a new candidate.

  *  *  *

  Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/21/2024 – 21:20

• RFK Jr. Dials Back Abortion Stance After Pushback
  RFK Jr. Dials Back Abortion Stance After Pushback

  Authored by Jeff Louderback via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  An early campaign promise Robert F. Kennedy Jr. made when he was still running in the Democrat primary last year has seen a stern test in recent weeks amid his comment that he supported abortion up to full term.

  

  Mr. Kennedy told The Epoch Times last August that he preferred to have advisers and team members who don’t fully share his views and, as a candidate and president, he would listen to differing opinions and even change his mind if presented with a convincing argument.

  In May, a podcast interview with Sage Steele created a firestorm where Mr. Kennedy received a widespread backlash.

  He said that women should be able to terminate their pregnancy “even if it’s full term.”

  The comment drew criticism from pro-life groups and multiple people within his campaign.

  Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, said in a statement that Mr. Kennedy “has exposed himself as a true extremist” who “is no different from Joe Biden and Kamala Harris when it comes to supporting brutal abortions at any time for no reason, even when babies in the womb feel pain, with zero limits or exceptions.”

  Angela Stanton King, a pro-life advocate and an adviser to Mr. Kennedy’s campaign, has contributed insight on black voter outreach, and criminal justice and abortion policies.

  She denounced the candidate’s view on backing full-term abortion on social media.

  Nicole Shanahan, Mr. Kennedy’s running mate, sat down for a talk with Ms. Steele that was released a week before Mr. Kennedy’s interview aired.

  Ms. Shanahan said that she was unaware that the candidate did not support limits on abortion.

  “My understanding with Bobby’s position is that, you know, every abortion is a tragedy, is a loss of life,” Ms. Shanahan said, adding that she thought that he believed in limits on abortion and, perhaps, there was a miscommunication in his interview.

  A day after the interview with Sage Steele aired, Mr. Kennedy reiterated his early campaign promise that he would “always be willing to listen to people and change my position.”

  “I support the emerging consensus that abortion should be unrestricted up until a certain point.

  “I believe that point should be when the baby is viable outside the womb.

  “Therefore, I would allow appropriate restrictions on abortion in the final months of pregnancy, just as Roe v. Wade did,” he wrote on X.

  He noted that “even in the reddest of red states, voters reject total abortion bans.”

  Mr. Kennedy has stressed that he does not like abortion, but he said he does not trust the government “to have jurisdiction over people’s bodies.”

  That stance aligns with Mr. Kennedy’s longtime support for medical freedom and bodily autonomy.

  During the COVID-19 pandemic, he attracted public attention with his vocal opposition to vaccine and mask mandates.

  Mr. Kennedy finished his post by describing a proposed policy called “More Choices, More Life,” which he believes will reduce abortion by supporting women who want to give birth.

  The platform features a plan for universally affordable childcare that will cap childcare expenses at 10 percent for most families.

  Almost three-quarters of women cite economic reasons to explain why they chose to abort a pregnancy, Mr. Kennedy explained.

  He vowed that his administration would “support women in need so that abortion isn’t their only choice.”

  Ms. King praised Mr. Kennedy for the adjustment.

  “After a bunch of going back and forth, and not only by me, but also people on the campaign, we’ve all come to the agreement that late-term abortion is not something that this campaign is going to support,” she said in a video posted on X.

  “This is what you get when you begin to work in the independent space,” she added, noting that the campaign is composed of conservatives, Democrats, and Libertarians; and people who are for and against abortion.

  Mr. Kennedy announced his candidacy to challenge President Joe Biden for the 2024 nomination in April 2023.

  Claiming that the Democratic National Committee was “rigging the primary” to favor President Biden, he decided to run as an independent last October.

  Ms. King remarked that the campaign team has members with varying views, but they work to find “the best solution.”

  Mr. Kennedy and Ms. Shanahan do not fully agree on the abortion issue.

  His position differs from Ms. Shanahan’s in that he believes the cutoff should be at fetal viability.

  However, both are aligned with the emerging national consensus of no restrictions up until a certain point and restrictions thereafter, Stefanie Spear told The Epoch Times in a statement.

  Many medical professionals believe fetal viability occurs at 23 to 24 weeks of gestation.

  Ms. Shanahan said in a podcast interview last week that the preferred limits on abortion move “between 15 and 18 weeks.”

  In previous conversations with The Epoch Times, Mr. Kennedy has acknowledged that his position on the issue could cost him conservative votes.

  “If you’re a one-issue voter, and that’s something that you deeply care about, I might not be the right candidate for you.

  “But I feel like there’s a lot of people now who want authenticity in their political leadership, and they want somebody who’s going to tell them the truth,” he told The Epoch Times last year.

  Most Americans base their votes on a range of issues and are most concerned about the direction of the country, Mr. Kennedy believes.

  “I will talk to people regardless of their views and will assure them that I will listen to them, even if they don’t vote for me,” he told The Epoch Times.

  “I want to talk to media members and voters who share differing opinions than mine, because how else are you going to persuade?”

  Abortion is not the first stance Mr. Kennedy has changed during his presidential campaign, which was launched as a Democrat in April 2023 before he opted to run as an independent last October.

  Mr. Kennedy said that, initially, he wasn’t in favor of President Trump’s border wall.

  But after seeing the border firsthand in Arizona last July, he changed his mind.

  He said there’s a need for increased infrastructure and technology at the border, including more segments of a physical wall and sensors in areas where a wall isn’t feasible.

  Theo Wilson, an adviser to Mr. Kennedy’s presidential bid, said at a voter rally in Colorado on May 19 that “it’s impossible” to see eye to eye on everything in an independent campaign.

  Mr. Wilson remarked that he did not agree with the candidate on some issues, “but this is not like any other campaign when the people they’re in are expected to be just mouthpieces” of their candidate.

  “In an independent campaign like the size of this one, you’re going to have to sit across the table and hammer out agreements.

  “You got to sit there like adults and figure out a path forward, and the one who sets the tone for that is Robert F. Kennedy Jr.”

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/21/2024 – 21:00

• Insane Footage Shows Tornado Destroying Wind Farm In Iowa
  Insane Footage Shows Tornado Destroying Wind Farm In Iowa

  Shocking footage from Iowa this evening shows multiple tornadoes wreaking havoc on massive wind turbines. This is yet another reminder that wind is not a reliable power source. 

  A tornado in Iowa just leveled a wind turbine. 🤯

  These storms are heading to Illinois and Wisconsin next.

  Be safe tonight, everyone. pic.twitter.com/KvH1cAq07f

  — Art Candee 🍿🥤 (@ArtCandee) May 21, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Here’s the aftermath.

  Apocalyptic scenes between Carbon and Greenfield, Iowa. Multiple wind turbines completely shredded, one on fire, power pole stumps left behind with entire poles gone. Strong strong tornado. pic.twitter.com/POvHZf5QXL

  — Andrew Pritchard (@skydrama) May 21, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Aerial video shows wind turbines destroyed near Adams County, Iowa, after a tornado moved through the area.

  We’re LIVE with aftermath: https://t.co/1pcOhXr9Jb @CharlesPeekWX pic.twitter.com/V9vYIxqK9k

  — The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) May 21, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Tornado ripped down multiple wind turbines and left one in flames. Drone video captured by @JordanHallWX shows impact craters almost 6 feet deep north of Prescott, Iowa.#iawx #wxtwitter pic.twitter.com/GGPDSHzk59

  — MyRadar Weather (@MyRadarWX) May 22, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Two months ago, a solar farm in Texas with hundreds of acres of ground-based panels was destroyed by a hail storm.  

  

  Despite the evident challenges and risks, radical leftists continue pouring billions of dollars of taxpayer funds into unreliable green energy. 

  … and perfect timing! “Twisters,” a standalone sequel to the 1996 film “Twister,” is set to debut this summer. 

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/21/2024 – 20:55

• Aluminum Jumps To 23-Month High Amid Ongoing Aussie Production Issues
  Aluminum Jumps To 23-Month High Amid Ongoing Aussie Production Issues

  From coffee to cocoa, orange juice to gold, and silver to copper, commodity prices are spiking across the board (we outlined this on Monday). The latest surge occurred Tuesday when aluminum tagged 23-month highs due to ongoing production issues emerging from Australia. The broad-based commodity rally signals the inflation storm central bankers are battling is not over. 

  Rio Tinto, one of the largest aluminum producers, declared force majeure on third-party contracts for exporting alumina from its refineries in Queensland, Australia. This is due to a broken natural gas pipeline operated by Queensland Gas Pipeline. 

  

  A spokesperson for the company told Dow Jones that NatGas supplies will return to capacity at a much later date than previously anticipated: 

  “The pipeline operator’s current estimate [is] for a return to normal levels in the second half of 2024. 

  “Until then, Yarwun and QAL [Queensland Alumina Limited] will continue to operate at lower capacities.”

  On the London Metal Exchange, aluminum contracts settled up 3.6% at $2,725.50 a metric ton, the highest level since early summer 2022. 

  

  Colin Hamilton, managing director for commodities research at BMO Capital Markets, told Bloomberg that today’s price action in aluminum markets suggests mounting fears about “dwindling aluminum output” — a situation he views as “unlikely.”

  Hamilton noted that industrial metal could be “part of the digital and electrical revolution we know is coming … is going to benefit.” We call this “The Next AI Trade.”

  One base metal that has been on everyone’s radars is copper. Comex prices have squeezed to record highs and continue on Tuesday. 

  

  Since February, industrial metals tracked by Bloomberg have soared 30%. 

  

  Precious metals tracked by Bloomberg have also broken out. 

  

  Commodities as a whole, tracked by Bloomberg, have soared. 

  

  Bloomberg’s Cameron Crise pointed out that the number of commodities in the Bloomberg Commodity Index that are up by at least 25% over the three month period have risen to seven. 

  

  Crise continues:

  Currently, there are seven: cocoa, copper, nickel, orange juice, silver, tin, and zinc. Clearly industrial metals are a theme in that list, which itself raises the question of how valid some of the global growth concerns might be. Anyhow, the current total of seven is the highest since the middle of 2022; coincidentally (or not), the industrial metals subindex total return is also the highest since the same point in time.

  He added:

  Obviously, over long periods of time the link between the series above and inflation isn’t necessarily that great; the highest-ever reading came in 2009 with the correction of the GFC downside overshoot in commodity prices. Still, the relatively broad-based rise in industrial metals is noteworthy and raises another question about just how benign the inflation outlook might be moving forwards.

  The hot commodity market is posing new challenges for Fed chair Jerome Powell and his friends in the White House… 

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/21/2024 – 20:40

• Republican Iran Hawks Celebrate Raisi's Death
  Republican Iran Hawks Celebrate Raisi’s Death

  Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

  Some Republicans in Congress are celebrating the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, who was killed in a helicopter crash along with Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian and seven others in Iran’s mountainous East Azerbaijan province.

  When the news first broke that Raisi was missing, Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) wrote on X: “If Raisi is dead, the world is now a safer & better place. That evil man was a tyrant & terrorist. He was not loved or respected & he will be missed by no one. If he’s gone, I truly hope the Iranian people have the chance to take their country back from murderous dictators.”

  

  After Raisi’s death was confirmed, the State Department offered condolences to Iran, which outraged Scott. “What a disgrace. Since when does the United States issue a statement of condolence for a terrorist?! It should read: The world is a better place with Raisi dead,” he said.

  Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL) made similar comments in response to the news about Raisi. “Good riddance. Raisi was a murderous human rights abuser before and during his Presidency,” he wrote on X. “But look for the Iranian regime to blame Israel and the US for an assassination as another excuse to support terrorism.”

  Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) released a statement where he called Raisi one of Iran’s “bloodiest hard-liners.“

  So far, Iranian authorities have not offered much detail about the crash, but said it was caused by a “technical failure.” Raisi was traveling in a US-made Bell 212 helicopter.

  According to The Washington Post, the average age of Iran’s Bell 212 helicopters is 35 years old, and they are difficult for the Islamic Republic to maintain due to US sanctions.

  State Department spokesman Matt Miller said that the US would not apologize to Iran for imposing aircraft-related sanctions.

  “We are not gonna apologize for our sanctions regime at all. The Iranian government has used its aircraft to transport equipment to support terrorism. So we will continue to fully enforce our sanctions regime, including our sanctions regime on aircraft for use by the Iranian government,” he told Rudaw.

  Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) calls for direct strikes on Iran, because “the only thing Iranians understand is strength.” Which is exactly the same tired folk logic that anti-Russia hawks always use — the only language that meddlesome subspecies understands is cruise missiles pic.twitter.com/hla1NIuX4Y

  — Michael Tracey (@mtracey) January 29, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has confirmed that Vice President Mohammad Mokhber is now Iran’s acting president and said, per the Iranian constitution, he has 50 days to arrange for new elections.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/21/2024 – 20:20

• Watch: First X Call Using Starlink Direct-To-Cell Tech With An Unmodified Smartphone
  Watch: First X Call Using Starlink Direct-To-Cell Tech With An Unmodified Smartphone

  About a week after AT&T and AST SpaceMobile announced their partnership to create a space-based broadband network to rival T-Mobile’s plan for global cell connectivity using SpaceX’s Starlink satellites, SpaceX engineers showcased an “unmodified mobile phone” making the first video call on X using Starlink’s direct-to-cell satellites. This move shows how T-Mobile and SpaceX are lightyears ahead of the competition as a new era of connectivity unfolds. 

  “First video call on @X completed through @Starlink Direct to Cell satellites from unmodified mobile phones!” the official X account in a post on Tuesday afternnon.

  The post continued, “We’re excited to go live with @TMobile later this year.” 

  First video call on @X completed through @Starlink Direct to Cell satellites from unmodified mobile phones!

  We’re excited to go live with @TMobile later this year 🛰️🌎 pic.twitter.com/v4nA5B75EX

  — SpaceX (@SpaceX) May 21, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  In January, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket launched the first set of Starlink satellites with direct-to-cell capabilities. There are currently 20 Starlink internet satellites with direct-to-cell capabilities in orbit. 

  The Starlink satellite constellation consists of nearly 5,000 active low Earth satellites beaming the internet worldwide. 

  

  Starlink announced on X that over 3 million people use the terminals across 100 countries, territories, and other markets. By “other markets,” do they mean war zones (Ukraine, Middle East)? 

  First video call on @X completed through @Starlink Direct to Cell satellites from unmodified mobile phones!

  We’re excited to go live with @TMobile later this year 🛰️🌎 pic.twitter.com/v4nA5B75EX

  — SpaceX (@SpaceX) May 21, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Given all this growth. We have asked:

  • Ready For IPO? Starlink Achieves Cash-Flow Breakeven

  Followed by:

  • SpaceX Prepares For Starlink IPO In 2024, Report Says

  Earlier this month:

  • IPO Nearing? Elon Musk’s Starlink In Hyper-Growth, Surprises Analysts With $6.6 Billion Revenue Projection

  Starlink satellites are poised to propel T-Mobile ahead of the competition, leaving AT&T trailing by years. At this stage, Musk should consider launching his own satellite phone service and smartphone under the Starlink brand, further capitalizing on the growing dominance of being the leading provider of high-speed space-based connectivity and telecommunications to the world. 

  Meanwhile, Jeff Bezos’ Project Kuiper is nowhere to be found. 

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/21/2024 – 20:00

• Microplastics Found In Human Testicles
  Microplastics Found In Human Testicles

  Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Microplastics have been identified in human and canine testicles, lengthening the list of where the insidious particles have been found.

  

  A new study published in Toxicological Sciences revealed the incredible prevalence of microplastics worldwide and their ability to penetrate nearly every part of the body.

  Microplastics form when plastic is exposed to sunlight or other ultraviolet radiation and slowly degrades in landfills, the ocean, or other places. They are so small (measured in micro- or nanometers, or a billionth of a meter) that they can also be blown around by the wind and carried into waterways.

  Human Samples Had Triple the Microplastics

  A team of researchers at the University of New Mexico (UNM) examined testicular tissue samples from humans and dogs and found these microscopic pieces of plastic were present in every sample. The human samples were supplied by the New Mexico Office of the Medical Investigator, which collects tissues during autopsies, and the canine samples came from the City of Albuquerque animal shelters and private veterinary clinics that spay and neuter animals.

  The researchers didn’t expect to find microplastics in the reproductive system—at least, not to this degree.

  “When I first received the results for dogs I was surprised,” Dr. Xiaozhong “John” Yu, a professor at the UNM College of Nursing and lead researcher, said in a press release. “I was even more surprised when I received the results for humans.”

  The research team found nearly three times the amount of microplastics in the human samples compared to the canine samples. There were 122.63 micrograms of microplastics per gram of tissue in the canine samples and 329.44 micrograms per gram in the human.

  The team found 12 types of microplastics in 47 canine samples and 23 human samples. The most prevalent polymer, or plastic, in both types of tissue was polyethylene (PE), which is used to make plastic bags and bottles. The next most common polymer in dogs was PVC, which is often used in different kinds of plumbing.

  Dr. Yu and his team believe that the level of microplastics could correlate with reproductive issues. The team determined the sperm count in the canine samples and found that the higher the level of PVC in the tissue, the lower the sperm count was. However, the correlation was not found with the concentration of PE in tissue.

  “The plastic makes a difference—what type of plastic might be correlated with potential function,” Dr. Yu said. “PVC can release a lot of chemicals that interfere with spermatogenesis and it contains chemicals that cause endocrine disruption.”

  Why Dogs?

  The study compared dogs and humans because the two often share an environment, as well as some biological characteristics.

  “Compared to rats and other animals, dogs are closer to humans,” Dr. Yu said.

  He noted that dogs and humans produce sperm in very similar ways and that the sperm concentration is also comparable between the two species.

  “We believe dogs and humans share common environmental factors that contribute to their decline,” he said.

  One of those environmental factors is microplastics, which are found worldwide, including on the top of Mt. Everest.

  “The impact on the younger generation might be more concerning,” Dr. Yu said, pointing to men 35 years old and younger. “We have a lot of unknowns. We need to really look at what the potential long-term effect [sic]. Are microplastics one of the factors contributing to this decline?”

  Dr. Yu added that, while he doesn’t want to scare anyone, he thinks it is important to make people aware that their choices have consequences.

  “We want to scientifically provide the data and make people aware there are a lot of microplastics. We can make our own choices to better avoid exposures, change our lifestyle and change our behavior,” he said.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/21/2024 – 19:40

• ELFs Are The Single Greatest Threat To Our Enduring Liberties
  ELFs Are The Single Greatest Threat To Our Enduring Liberties

  Authored by Jack Cashill via AmericanThinker.com,

  Jan 6 / COVID Stir The Fascist Soul of The Educated Liberal Female

  In researching my new book, Ashli: The Untold Story of the Women of January 6, I discovered something unexpected: an alarming confirmation of my September 2022 article in which I argued that Educated Liberal Females (ELFs) are the single greatest threat to our enduring liberties.

  

  My new book deals specifically with the ELF’s natural foes, the women of January 6.

  Among the ten women I profile is Dr. Simone Gold. Even before getting caught up in the events of that memorable day, Dr. Gold had set the ELFs on edge through her work with America’s Frontline Doctors, a group she founded.

  An M.D. as well as a lawyer, Dr. Gold, 55 at the time, went to Washington not to protest the election but to address the issue of medical freedom. She had secured a permit to speak at a venue on the east side of the Capitol, but when organizers cancelled the event, Gold decided to give the speech on the Capitol steps. The daughter of a Holocaust survivor, she did not readily surrender her right to speak freely.

  Standing at the top of the steps on the Capitol’s east side, Gold got swept into the building when the doors opened from the inside, and the crowd surged forward. Finding her way to the rotunda, Dr. Gold stood on the base of a statue to speak. Someone passed her a bullhorn, and several people came over to listen. Following her five-minute speech, she took questions. After twenty or so uneventful minutes in the Capitol, Gold exited the building, having seen no violence or vandalism.

  Along with 1200 or so other citizens, Dr. Gold was hunted down by the FBI in the most sweeping series of arrests on American soil since the notorious Palmer raids of a century ago.

  Twelve days after January 6, roughly 20 agents came knocking at her Los Angeles door with a battering ram.

  “They arrested me,” she told Tucker Carlson. 

  “They [yell], ‘put your hands up, put your hands up, face the wall, face the wall,’ they’re screaming, ‘face the wall’ — handcuffed, shackled, take me downtown, orange suit, strip search, holding cell, fluorescent lights, — it was terrible — no phone call, no Miranda rights.”

  Threatened with a 20-year sentence if she took her case to trial before a rubber-stamp D.C. jury, Gold reluctantly accepted a plea deal. For a single misdemeanor charge, she was sentenced to 60 days at the Miami Federal Detention Center, a maximum-security prison. This was an unusually severe punishment for a single misdemeanor, even by January 6 standards.  

  On March 9, 2022 the New York Times celebrated Gold’s impending imprisonment in an article headlined, “A doctor prominent in fomenting opposition to Covid vaccines pleads guilty to riot charges.” The article’s subhead described America’s Front Line Doctors as “a group that spreads pandemic misinformation.” That same subhead claimed Gold “stood by as a Capitol Police officer was assaulted.” Video released after the fact would show that the officer fainted and was helped back up to his feet by the protestors. The prosecution knew this at the time of Gold’s plea deal — the officer had admitted as much to the FBI — but she did not.

  When the Times posted the plea deal story on its Facebook page, America’s frontline Karens queued up to take a whack at the Gold piñata. For the researcher, Facebook is a useful and easily mined resource. All those who comment have a Facebook page in their own name, and on that page is enough personal information to assess, in general terms, the person’s background. The article elicited more than a thousand comments.

  The first 19 people to post an original comment were female, all of them hostile. A supportive male broke the streak. Of the first 50 people, 42 were female. Of that 42, two more or less defended Gold, but the other 40 met the general definition of an ELF. These are New York Times readers after all. The comments of the 40 were uniformly negative. Of note, some expressed as much anger at Dr. Gold’s Covid skepticism as they did her designation as insurrectionist. Some samples:

  Take her medical license… she should be held to a higher standard…. throw the book at her… she is a danger to others and the public health.

  Apparently that “first do no harm” thing didn’t take. #quack

  Glad to see she is no longer practicing, can’t imagine her taking care of people when she doesn’t trust science.

  Honestly she should lose her medical license for intentionally spreading so much misinformation. In this kind of scenario she very likely could have caused lives to be lost.

  Suspend her license — She is a threat to her patients. 

  Given the number of people who have died from her COVID lies, she should be facing more serious charges.

  She should be charged for the deaths of anyone who believed her. And she should lose her license for spreading lies about medical information. She totally violated her oath to do NO harm.

  NYTIMES Stop referring to her as a doctor. She is not one of us.

  Too bad she doesn’t live in Russia where she could get 15 years in jail for misinformation.

  Thinking the Russia comment might have been made in jest, I reviewed the commenter’s home page. She wasn’t joking. Her past comments showed symptoms of an irony deficiency epidemic in the ELF community. Other ELFs saw Dr. Gold not only as a quack, but also as a traitor. They proved equally as ignorant about January 6 as they did about Covid and just as vengeful.

  She should serve at lest 25 years for this insurrection and trying to destroy democracy! Why are we so lenient with this terrorists!!??

  Go get them all !!!!!! Enough is enough and this has gone on too long. Just like the horrendous amount of time it is taking to make #45 pay for his crimes. #45, his family and his cult MUST be brought to justice for the damage they did to American democracy, citizens and place in the world.

  Hope she sees time behind bars.

  Sick & tired of misdemeanor charges for these people who tried to overthrow our government.

  She should lose her medical license, not only for the misinformation she was spreading but especially for not attending to the fallen & injured officers of that despicable riot! 

  I hope in future someone researching our odd and precarious times will be able to assess the harm that has been done to American citizens and others by conspiracy theory promoters.

  The ELFs, it should be noted, left these unforgiving comments two years after the onset of the pandemic. By this time, they should have known they had been deceived about Covid’s origins, the efficacy of masks, the value of the vaccines, the effectiveness of lockdowns, the lasting harm to schoolchildren, and the dangers of the disease itself.

  If proof were needed of this deception, a survey done by Franklin Templeton-Gallup in late 2020 provided it. In the survey of 35,000 Americans, the most revealing indicator came in response to the question: “What percentage of people who have been infected by the coronavirus needed to be hospitalized?”

  The responding Democrats proved scarily clueless.

  Some 41 percent believed that 50 percent or more of those who contracted Covid would end up in the hospital.

  Another 28 percent said that 20-50 percent of Covid sufferers would be hospitalized.

  The correct answer was 1-5 percent, an answer Republicans were nearly three times as likely to get right.

  In sum, 69 percent of Democrats were deeply misinformed and 41 percent were grossly misinformed.

  The ignorance infected even the most powerful ELFs.

  At a January 2022 hearing on vaccine mandates, Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor observed, “We have over 100,000 children, which we’ve never had before, in serious condition, and many on ventilators.” As the CNN fact checker had to admit, the self-described “wise Latina” overstated the numbers by a factor of at least twenty.

  “It was as if these communities were in the grip of a collective hallucination,” erstwhile feminist icon Naomi Wolf writes of her former allies in her book The Bodies of Others, “like the witch crazes of the sixteen and seventeenth century. Whole understandings and belief systems were abandoned overnight. Intelligent, informed people suddenly saw things that were not there and unable to see things that were incontrovertibly before their faces.”

  Dr. Gold was punished for being right. To this day, she defies her critics to find anything that she said about COVID that has proved to be untrue. “The anger against me is so aggressive,” she believes, “because they think I betrayed my social class.” Like other religious zealots, ELFs have no tolerance for apostates.

  *  *  *

  Jack Cashill’s newest book, Ashli: The Untold Story of the Women of January 6, is now available for purchase. Ebook and audiobook versions to follow shortly.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/21/2024 – 19:00

• GOP Bill Would Give Israeli Soldiers US Job And Financial Protections
  GOP Bill Would Give Israeli Soldiers US Job And Financial Protections

  Leaping headlong into 2024’s frenzy of Israel-catering legislative activity, two House Republicans have introduced a bill that would extend credit and employment privileges enjoyed by US military service members to American citizens serving in the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF). 

  This latest affront to American patriotism is brought to you by Pennsylvania congressman and Chief Deputy Whip Guy Reschenthaler, along with Ohio Rep. Max Miller.

  “Over 20,000 American citizens are currently defending Israel from Hamas terrorists, risking their lives for the betterment of our ally,” said Reschenthaler. “This legislation will ensure we do everything possible to support these heroes who are standing with Israel, fighting for freedom, and combating terrorism in the Middle East.”

  

  HR 8445 would give American IDF soldiers (is that an oxymoron?) protections under two major programs for active duty US military service members: 

  • The Servicemembers Civil Relief Act (SCRA): Among many other features, SCRA caps credit card and mortgage interest on debts taken out before starting active service, protects against foreclosures, allows penalty-free termination of residential and auto leases, and allows cancellation of consumer contracts such as cell phone service and gym memberships. 
  • Uniformed Services Employment and Reemployment Rights Act (USERRA): As the Department of Labor describes it, “USERRA mandates that returning service members must be promptly re-employed in the same position that they would have attained had they not been absent for military service, with the same seniority, status and pay.” 

  Thus, if HR 8445 becomes law, a US bank may have to cap the interest rate it’s charging for an American citizen who spontaneously decides to go join the IDF rampage in Gaza. The same person could bail on their apartment lease. After they leave their employer in the lurch to fight for a foreign army, the employer would have to give them their job back — even if they hired someone else to fill the void. 

  

  In classic Washington DC fashion, these laws impose costs on private actors — landlords, vehicle dealerships, mortgage lenders, cell phone companies, gyms, employers — without compensation. Those costs go beyond foregone revenue: Implementing these benefits for IDF soldiers would require businesses to train staff members how to sort out the eligibility of an American serving in the Israeli military.  

  It’s one thing to do impose these costs for the benefit of American soldiers — it’s another altogether to use government coercion for the benefit of citizens who opt to take up arms for another country.  

  

  Speaking of costs and benefits, over their short careers, the two cosponsors of this bill have raked in huge contributions from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). According to Track AIPAC, third-termer Reschenthaler has received $170,147 while first-termer Miller has already piled up $193,808.   

  “No one should be entitled to any U.S. military service benefits unless they are fighting under U.S. command and control,” said non-interventionist former congressmen Dennis Kucinich, who is now running as an independent against Miller. “Mr. Miller has lost sight of who he was elected to Congress to represent.” 

  US representatives and senators have been tripping over each other to signal their loyalty to Israel. Other measures that thankfully aren’t law…yet: 

  • The House-passed Antisemitism Awareness Act would expose colleges to federal civil rights punishment if a student or professor argues that “the existence of the State of Israel is a racist endeavor” or makes comparisions between the Israeli government and that of Nazi Germany, among other forbidden ideas
  • Another bill would bar college debt forgiveness for anyone convicted of a federal or state offense — but only those related to a campus protest 
  • Yet another one would defund the State Department, DOD and National Security Council until Biden delivers more bombs to Israel 

  While all this is going on, the national debt is now growing by a trillion dollars every 100 days. Talk about misplaced priorities. 

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/21/2024 – 18:40

• "The End Of Everything": Victor Davis Hanson On The Gravest Threats To America
  “The End Of Everything”: Victor Davis Hanson On The Gravest Threats To America

  Via The Epoch Times,

  In a recent episode of American Thought Leaders, host Jan Jekielek sat down with classicist and military historian Victor Davis Hanson. In his new book “The End of Everything: How Wars Descend into Annihilation,” Mr. Hanson looks at four civilizations that were utterly destroyed by their enemies, then draws comparisons between the United States and its enemies, both domestic and foreign.

  

  Jan Jekielek: Victor, I’m going to start with something you wrote, “We see a recurring universally human theme across time and space. The doomed at the brink of civilizational destruction have an attitude partly born of hubris and partly born of naivete, perhaps best summed up as, ‘It cannot happen to us.’”

  Victor Davis Hanson: When one side loses a war, the typical follow-up is that they surrender. They’re not annihilated. But every once in a while, that doesn’t happen.

  I was curious to see why it didn’t happen in these few instances. I selected four of the maybe 20 that are known: classical Thebes that had been around for 1100 years, Carthage for 800-plus years, Constantinople for almost 1200 years, and Tenochtitlan we don’t quite know about.

  They felt they were invulnerable. When these occasions arose, they felt they could finesse it, negotiate it, or win it.

  Mr. Jekielek: It comes back to, “This can’t happen to us, these walls have never been penetrated.” In our society today, we forget about the lessons of history. What is the biggest lesson from Carthage?

  Mr. Hanson: One is understanding the invader. They had no idea that the Romans had global aspirations and wanted to control the entire Mediterranean. They didn’t realize that they were the only obstacle, and no matter what they did, they would be interpreted as an obstacle. They thought they could reason with the Romans.

  But the Romans were tired of them. Their attitude was, “They ran wild in Italy for 19 years and we’re sick of them. We’re going to land this huge force and we’ll give them an ultimatum.” Once they disarmed, the Romans thought, “Now what? As soon as we leave, they’ll rearm again.”

  The Romans had a renewed demand, “You have to destroy your city so you won’t be able to have a Navy. You won’t be able to go into the Mediterranean if you’re way inland.” They couldn’t do that. At that point there was a riot, and they killed some of the leaders who had acquiesced to the initial Roman demand. They felt they had a good chance to survive. They had 500,000 people. They were larger than Rome at the time. They were probably as wealthy as Rome. They felt they were better at sea than Rome. They could rebuild their fleet. But they had no idea of what Rome’s intentions were. All of the power of the Roman Republic would be directed at Carthage.

  Mr. Jekielek: You’re facing difficult odds, but you still think, “Nothing bad can happen to us.”

  Mr. Hanson: Yes. Look at the United States as a declining power and China as an ascending power. We think, “We won two world wars, we created the post-war order, we spend the most money on defense of any country. When we want to win, we can, and therefore we should downplay China.”

  If you were Carthage, you would think that way. If you were analytical today, you would say, “Wait a minute. We’re $36 trillion in debt. We’re borrowing $1 trillion every 100 days. We’re 45,000 people short in the military. Our cities are full of crime. China has an agenda to emasculate the United States. They’re building nuclear weapons and ships faster than we are. They have nearly five times the population of the United States.”

  That would be a realistic assessment, but we don’t hear that.

  We just hear, “We’re the United States, the cultural capital of the world and the wealthiest of anybody.”

  This decline is self-inflicted.

  Mr. Jekielek: We have Xi Jinping saying, “We are waging a people’s war against America.” It can’t be any clearer than that. But somehow we’re not aware.

  Mr. Hanson: That’s exactly the same with the Aztecs. When Cortes set foot in that city, Montezuma’s brother said, “He’s not a god. He’s a killer. He bleeds, he eats, he defecates. These people will destroy us.” But he was not listened to.

  We’re like these ancient societies who were paralyzed by fear and inaction.

  Mr. Jekielek: Our producers have collected questions from the audience during this live Q&A. The next question is, “Who is the greatest threat to the Republic, foreign enemies or domestic enemies?

  Mr. Hanson: Domestic. The greatest threat is somebody with an advanced graduate degree in the media, high tech, or government who has utopian impulses and feels morally or intellectually superior to the rest of us. Therefore, they think any methods are permissible in order to reach their dream. All of our institutions are under assault by messianic people who believe they have better education, and are wealthier and more virtuous.

  Mr. Jekielek: Here’s another question, “What does Victor Davis Hanson tell his family to do? What practical solutions does he have?”

  Mr. Hanson: I tell them to be proactive first, because I believe you have to work within the system. I tell them, “You have to vote. You have to speak up among your friends. You’ve got to be an active citizen in order to stop the madness.” I tell my children, “Monitor what they’re teaching your children.”

  We’re in new territory, and our agencies and institutions have become so warped they’re plotting for short-term political gain. The irony is that the people who are doing this say, “Democracy dies in darkness.”

  Everybody’s got to get active. Vote, help people get to the polls, speak up, write to your local paper, volunteer to observe the election. Do whatever you can to be engaged.

  This interview has been edited for clarity and brevity.

  Watch the full interview below:

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/21/2024 – 18:20

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• Slovakia Probing Broader Conspiracy In Assassination Attempt On PM Fico
  Slovakia Probing Broader Conspiracy In Assassination Attempt On PM Fico

  The Slovak police are investigating a possible broader criminal conspiracy surrounding the May 15 attempted assassination of Prime Minister Robert Fico.

  He was shot multiple times, and has survived his wounds, by what authorities initially said was a “lone-wolf” shooter who was immediately taken into custody. That official narrative appears to quickly be shifting, however.

  

  The 71-year old attacker fired five shots while Fico greeted supporters in the street outside a government building, sustaining life-threatening injuries.

  Deputy Prime Minister Robert Kalinak announced over the weekend of Fico, “He has emerged from the immediate threat to his life, but his condition remains serious and he requires intensive care.“

  “We can consider his condition stable with a positive prognosis,” Kalinak said outside the hospital where the prime minister is expected to remain likely for an extended period of time. “We all feel a bit more relaxed now.”

  Concerning the shooter’s motives, Interior Minister Matus Sutaj Estok has said in a fresh briefing that “the suspect was angered by the government’s Ukraine policy” and that he may not have been a lone wolf. According to Bloomberg:

  On Sunday, authorities said that cooperation with domestic and foreign intelligence services had led to a broadening of the probe, to include a version in which a group – which wasn’t identified – may have been linked to the crime.

  According to more details from Estok, “A potential broader assassination plot is supported by the fact that the assailant’s social media communications were erased by another person about two hours after the shooting.”

  The Interior Minister explained, “we added a version that it wasn’t only a lone-wolf attacker, but that the crime may have been conducted by a certain group of people.”

  There hasn’t been an assassination attempt on a head of state in Europe for some two decades, international reports have underscored. 

  Slovak Prime Minister Fico was shot in an armed attack 3 days after meeting with Azerbaijani President Aliyev.

  The Iranian President’s helicopter crashed hours after his meeting with Ilham Aliyev. pic.twitter.com/2m6Ad1ARCO

  — Globe Eye News (@GlobeEyeNews) May 20, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Fico had long been outspoken against deepening Western involvement in the Ukraine war, for which he’s made many enemies and critics among Western allies, and of course within Ukraine itself.

  For example, here’s how CNN last October described his ascendancy to prime minister and leader of the small NATO member state… “A party headed by a pro-Kremlin figure came out top after securing more votes than expected in an election in Slovakia, official results show, in what could pose a challenge to NATO and EU unity on Ukraine.”

  While in the hospital fighting for his life, Fico’s top officials have at times lashed out at Western media, telling reporters to ‘reflect’ on the way they cover the populist prime minister and his policies. 

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/21/2024 – 02:45

• UN Report Clearing UNRWA Of Terror Ties A "Whitewash", Witnesses Tell Congress
  UN Report Clearing UNRWA Of Terror Ties A “Whitewash”, Witnesses Tell Congress

  Authored by Dan Berger via The Epoch Times,

  Three expert witnesses testifying before a House Foreign Affairs subcommittee on May 17 said a recent U.N. investigation into its troubled agency assisting Palestinians in Gaza was a whitewash.

  

  They told the Subcommittee on Global Health, Global Human Rights, and International Organizations, chaired by Rep. Chris Smith (R-N.J.), that the Colonna Report was released by a committee stacked with agency supporters handpicked by the agency’s director.

  The agency, the U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), has overseen relief distribution and other services to Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank since 1949.

  Former French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna led the U.N. investigation. It included representatives of three institutions that witnesses said were regarded as pro-UNRWA: the Raoul Wallenberg Institute of Human Rights and Humanitarian Law in Sweden, the Christian Michelsen Institute in Norway, and the Danish Institute for Human Rights.

  The nine-week investigation began in response to Israeli allegations of the deep entanglement of UNRWA with Hamas, the terror group controlling Gaza.

  Those allegations have already had an effect: $450 million in foreign aid was halted, and President Joe Biden signed a bipartisan foreign aid bill halting all aid to UNRWA until at least March 25, 2025. The United States had been providing a third of UNRWA’s billion-dollar budget.

  Ms. Colonna’s committee began work a week after the House Foreign Affairs Committee voted 30–19 to halt UNRWA’s funding.

  The Colonna Report “was set up solely to whitewash UNRWA’s record,” according to Mr. Smith. The House subcommittee wanted to examine that, he said, as well as “U.S. funding to organizations other than UNRWA, which are affiliated to terrorists or otherwise promote violence against Israelis.”

  Ms. Colonna’s panel released a 54-page report of dense bureaucratic language obscuring the gravity of Israel’s charges: that at least a dozen UNRWA employees participated in Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, massacre in Israel, that 1,200 UNRWA employees belong to the banned terrorist organization controlling Gaza, and that 6,000 of its 13,000 employees have family members in Hamas.

  Israel has stated that Hamas arms have been found in or under some of the 2,000 buildings that the agency controls in Gaza, that a Hamas spy computer center tapped the UNRWA building above it for electric power, and that at least two hostages were held in the homes of likely UNRWA staffers, including a teacher and a doctor.

  Ms. Colonna “has a long history of support for UNRWA and hostility to Israel,” according to Mr. Smith. All three organizations tapped to work with her have similar histories, he said.

  “Senior officials connected to the report repeatedly stated that their goal was to, quote, reassure donors and to provide donors with further cover,” he said.

  Several nations, including Australia, Canada, and Sweden, resumed funding UNRWA even before the Colonna Report was published.

  One of the witnesses, Hillel Neuer, spoke of UNRWA’s refusals to appear with him or debate him. On May 13, he was disinvited from a panel discussing UNRWA at the Stimson Center in Washington after, he was told, UNRWA’s representative refused to participate if he was there.

  

  Rep. Chris Smith (R-N.J.) near the U.S. Capitol on March 22, 2024. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times)

  “[The Colonna Report] is, we’re told, an independent audit that has given UNRWA a clean bill of health exonerating the agency of all charges of its ties with terrorism. This headline was repeated around the world and used by several countries to reinstate funding,” Mr. Neuer said.

  “There’s one problem, though, Mr. Chairman. These claims are completely false.”

  The investigators were not impartial, he said. UNRWA Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini had denounced Israel’s charges of terror ties as a disingenuous, politically motivated, and a smear campaign, according to Mr. Neuer.

  “In doing so he irreparably tainted the credibility of the inquiry,” Mr. Neuer said.

  Mr. Lazzarini picked Ms. Colonna to head it a few weeks after she had posted her backing of UNRWA on social media. She had done that, Mr. Neuer said, after his own group, U.N. Watch, had exposed a social media group in which 3,000 UNRWA employees had celebrated the Oct. 7, 2023, massacre.

  

  Hillel Neuer, executive director of U.N. Watch, speaks at the 2015 Geneva Summit for Human Rights and Democracy. (Courtesy Hillel Neuer)

  “He chose someone who he knew very well was sympathetic to UNRWA, to say the least,” Mr. Neuer said.

  And France is UNRWA’s fourth-largest donor. A former UNRWA spokesman subsequently told the Al Jazeera television network that “the report by the former French foreign minister, quote, will provide the donors with further cover.”

  “The report says the following: UNRWA, quote, ’remains pivotal in providing life saving humanitarian aid. UNRWA is irreplaceable and indispensable, [a] humanitarian lifeline.’ Mr. Chairman, we didn’t need to have an independent review group of the French foreign minister and three Scandinavian institutes to produce those lines. Those words are the official UNWRA talking points,” Mr. Neuer said.

  He derided the report for its proclamation that “UNRWA has established a significant number of policies and mechanisms and procedures to ensure compliance with a more developed approach to neutrality than any other similar U.N. or NGO entities.”

  “The truth is the complete opposite,” Mr. Neuer said.

  He compared the report to the Soviet Union’s Stalin-era constitution, a soaring statement of human rights—guaranteeing direct elections, freedom of conscience, and other liberties. The Soviet dictator proclaimed it the most democratic constitution in the world.

  “The reality was the complete opposite,” Mr. Neuer said, noting that the constitution came into play in 1936, just before the Great Purge began, a terror resulting in the arrest and then execution or deportation to Siberia of millions of citizens.

  

  Displaced Palestinian people sit on benches as they wait outside a clinic of the U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on Jan. 28, 2024. (AFP via Getty Images)

  Yona Schiffmiller, research director for NGO Monitor, a group watchdog nonprofit group, said Hamas’s coercion makes accountability and oversight of UNRWA unlikely. U.S. law bans funding groups that promote violence, terrorism, anti-Semitism, or the employment of individuals espousing those.

  James G. Lindsay, former general counsel for UNRWA, former Justice Department criminal lawyer, and author of a 2009 report on the group, told the committee that he walked away from it when it became apparent that while it stated that it was vetting staff members for terror ties, it wasn’t doing it.

  He saw a quote from the UNRWA commissioner-general in the Canadian media saying, “Yes, I know we have Hamas people working for us, but it’s not something we worry about.”

  He objected to UNRWA’s management, “and I was rebuffed.”

  “And so I moved on,” Mr. Lindsay said.

  The Colonna Report itself documents indirectly how incompetent the agency is, he said. Of its 50 recommendations, he said, about 37 “reflect obvious management deficiencies, things like the need for training, better coordination with other agencies, better enforcement of rules, employing more women as managers, that any competent management team would have long ago addressed with prodding from an independent review.”

  He noted that of the 5.9 million Palestinians UNRWA designates as “refugees,” 1.8 million don’t meet the legal definition because they are citizens of and live in Jordan. Someone can’t be a citizen and a refugee at the same time, he said. Others should be stricken from the assistance rolls for their criminal records or support of terrorism, he said.

  The hearing was slightly disrupted by pro-Palestinian demonstrators. Several had “FREE GAZA” written on their arms. They held their arms up in the air and checked the monitors of the hearing’s cameras to make sure the messages were showing. One wore a “Free Palestine” T-shirt.

  At one point, Mr. Smith stopped the hearing to admonish them, noting that showing signs was illegal. Some shouting broke out off camera, and he then had police clear them from the hearing chamber.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/21/2024 – 02:00

• Hatch Act Enforcement Tightens With New Guidelines Targeting Political Activities Of Federal Employees
  Hatch Act Enforcement Tightens With New Guidelines Targeting Political Activities Of Federal Employees

  Authored by Chase Smith via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  In an update to enforcement of the Hatch Act, the U.S. Office of Special Counsel (OSC) on May 20 issued new guidelines aimed at clarifying and tightening the rules governing political activities by federal employees.

  

  The Hatch Act restricts the political activities of government employees to ensure a nonpartisan federal workforce. The Act has seen evolving interpretations and enforcement mechanisms since its enactment in 1939.

  The new advisory opinion from the OSC head Hampton Dellinger outlines several key changes that will impact how these regulations are applied, particularly concerning White House personnel and the display of political items in federal workplaces. Mr. Dellinger was recently confirmed by the U.S. Senate and took office in March 2024, with prior work overseeing the U.S. Department of Justice Office of Legal Policy.

  Mr. Dellinger in an opinion piece published in Politico on May 20, noted that the updates are meant to target a loophole that has allowed senior White House personnel to evade full compliance with the Hatch Act.

  He noted that the changes mark a decisive move to ensure that the law’s restrictions on political activities apply uniformly across all federal employees, including top White House staff.

  Mr. Dellinger emphasized the importance of balancing robust Hatch Act enforcement with protecting federal employees’ speech rights.

  “While this Advisory Opinion updates OSC’s approach to Hatch Act enforcement in certain areas, it is important to note what remains unchanged,” the advisory opinion announcing the changes stated. “OSC will continue to provide extensive training, education, and advice to inform federal agencies and employees of Hatch Act obligations. Relatedly, OSC continues to encourage government workers to come into immediate compliance once alerted of violations. Quickly remedied and minor violations often can be addressed and closed through warnings from OSC rather than a filed case.”

  Enforcement Actions and White House Personnel

  The OSC has announced a shift in how it handles Hatch Act violations by White House commissioned officers and other senior staff.

  Previously, due to the absence of a quorum in the U.S. Merit Systems Protection Board (MSPB) and historical legal opinions, the OSC would refer cases involving White House personnel to the president.

  With the MSPB now having a quorum, the OSC will bring such cases directly to the MSPB for adjudication, in line with the clear statutory mandate, according to an advisory opinion announcing the changes. This change underscores that all non-Presidential Senate-confirmed appointees (PAS) will be subject to the same disciplinary processes as other federal employees.

  Political Activity Restrictions Extended

  In an effort to create a uniform and clear standard, the OSC has also updated its guidance on the display of political candidate or party items in the federal workplace.

  Previously, there was a distinction between items supporting political candidates, which were prohibited only during election periods, and those supporting political parties, which were banned year-round. The new rule eliminates this distinction, imposing a year-round ban on both types of items.

  This change reflects the increasing association of candidates with specific political parties, rendering any distinction between candidate and party items practically insignificant.

  Another notable update concerns former federal employees. The OSC clarified that the Hatch Act’s prohibitions apply even after an employee has left federal service.

  This means that individuals who violated the Hatch Act while in government can still face disciplinary actions post-resignation. This extension ensures accountability and deters future violations, maintaining the integrity of federal service, according to the advisory opinion.

  Balancing Free Speech and Political Neutrality

  The OSC has also addressed the balance between protecting federal employees’ speech rights and ensuring political neutrality in government operations.

  While the Hatch Act restricts overt political advocacy by government employees, it allows for certain policy-related discussions that may touch on politically sensitive issues.

  “Importantly, OSC will always find violations of the Hatch Act when on-the-job speech or conduct includes express advocacy (i.e. please support the election of, vote against, donate to, or variations thereof),” the new policy explained. “Beyond that, prohibited advocacy can also include using words, phrases, or images associated with a specific candidate or party, particularly when they appear alone, virtually alone, or gratuitously.”

  The new advisory reaffirms that clear advocacy for or against political candidates or parties in the workplace remains prohibited. However, discussions involving policy matters related to federal programs or legislative proposals may be permissible, provided they do not serve as covert political endorsements.

  The OSC’s updated enforcement approach is an attempt at ensuring that federal employees adhere to political neutrality and accountability.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 05/20/2024 – 23:40

• These Are The Countries Where Youth Are The Most Unhappy, Relative To Older Generations
  These Are The Countries Where Youth Are The Most Unhappy, Relative To Older Generations

  “They say a person needs just three things to be truly happy in this world: someone to love, something to do, and something to hope for.”

  – TOM BODETT

  Measuring happiness is tricky business, more so when taking into account how different regions, cultures, and faiths define it. Nevertheless, as Visual Capitalist’s Pallavi Rao reports, the World Happiness Report attempts to distill being happy into a single score out of 10, and then ranks countries by their average score.

  Rao has visualized the high-level findings from the latest happiness report in this series of maps. However, the report also dives deeper into other significant trends in the data, such as a growing disparity in happiness between age groups within countries themselves.

  

  In the chart above, Visual Capitalist lists countries by the biggest gaps in happiness ranks between young adults (<30) and older adults (60+). A higher number indicates a larger gap, and that the youth are far unhappier than their older counterparts.

  Where are Youth Unhappier than Older Adults?

  Mauritius ranks first on this list, with a massive 57 place gap between older adult and youth happiness. The 1.26 million-inhabited island nation briefly reached high income status in 2020, but the pandemic hit hard, hurting its key tourism sector, and affecting jobs.

  The country’s youth unemployment rate spiked to close to 25% that year, but has since been on the decline. Like residents on many similarly-populated islands, the younger demographic often moves abroad in search of more opportunities.

  

  Conventional wisdom says, and data somewhat correlates, that young adults (those below 30) tend to be the happiest demographic. Happiness then decreases through middle age and starts increasing around 60. However, the above countries are digressing from the pattern, with older generations being much happier than young adults.

  That older generations are happier, by itself, is not a bad thing. However, that younger adults are so much unhappier in the same country can point to several unique stresses that those aged below 30 are facing.

  For example, in the U.S. and Canada—both near the top of this list—many young adults feel like they have been priced out of owning a home: a once key metric of success.

  Climate anxieties are also high, with worries about the future of the world they’ll inhabit. Finally, persistent economic inequities are also weighing on the younger generation, with many in that cohort feeling like they will never be able to afford to retire.

  All of this comes alongside a rising loneliness epidemic, where those aged 18–25 report much higher rates of loneliness than the general population.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 05/20/2024 – 23:20

• Study Finds Hormone Replacement Therapy Can Safely Treat Menopause Symptoms
  Study Finds Hormone Replacement Therapy Can Safely Treat Menopause Symptoms

  Authored by Ayla Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  A new study has determined that, when it comes to treating the symptoms of menopause, the overall benefits of hormone replacement therapy outweigh the risks. However, researchers found that the evidence does not support hormone therapy as an effective preventative measure for cardiovascular disease, dementia, or other chronic diseases.

  

  The study, published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA), analyzed follow-up data related to the Women’s Health Initiative (WHI) study—the largest study for women’s health in the United States and a nearly two-decade-long undertaking. The researchers determined that hormone therapy is an effective treatment option for postmenopausal women, particularly those in early menopause who are less than 60 years old.

  Study Findings Explained

  The WHI study was conducted from 1993 through 1998. Participants consisted of 161,808 postmenopausal women within the United States between 50 and 79 years old. Relevant data was collected from the study participants for up to twenty years to determine the efficacy and side effects of hormone replacement therapy during menopause.

  After analyzing the WHI’s follow-up data, the JAMA study researchers concluded hormone replacement therapy (HRT) is a safe treatment option for common vasomotor menopause symptoms, such as hot flashes and night sweats. The researchers also found that initiating hormone replacement therapy in early menopause (before age 60) resulted in fewer adverse effects compared to late menopause.

  “I’m glad to see the researchers mention the increased risk of side effects from HRT in late menopause. I wish doctors would be more upfront with patients about the downsides of HRT, because the truth is, it doesn’t work well for a lot of women,” Mindy Pelz, a chiropractor and functional health expert, told The Epoch Times in an email.

  Researchers also found the evidence did not support routine calcium and Vitamin D supplementation to prevent fractures in postmenopausal women. Nor did it support the use of a low-fat diet as a means to prevent breast or colorectal cancer in postmenopausal women.

  “It’s always good to get more clarity on what hormone replacement can and cannot do. For some women, hormone replacement therapy makes a night-and-day difference in menopause symptoms like hot flashes and mood—but it’s helpful to know that HRT won’t protect you from menopause’s impact on heart health, brain aging, and chronic disease risk,” says Ms. Pelz.

  Background and Prior Research

  Through decades of research, scientists have been able to better understand which hormone treatments are beneficial–and which should be avoided. For example, researchers of the WHI study learned that a certain type of progestin—medroxyprogesterone acetate—was linked to higher rates of breast cancer. On the other hand, micronized progesterone, a type of bioidentical hormone, does not increase the risk of breast cancer.

  “Bio-identical hormones are a safer alternative to traditional HRT because they are plant-based transdermal creams that are structurally identical to human hormones; the body recognizes them, binds to them, metabolizes them, excretes them, activating the same functions as before menopause sets in. They are just as powerful to prevent hot flashes, night sweats, weight gain, and sleeping difficulties and do not pose an increased risk for breast cancer, heart disease, blood clots, or strokes,” Dr. Gowri Reddy Rocco told The Epoch Times in an email. Dr. Rocco is a double board-certified physician in family medicine and regenerative, anti-aging, and functional medicine.

  The WHI study also found an increased incidence of pulmonary embolism in women taking estrogen orally. Other forms of estrogen, such as patches, creams, or gels, are considered a safer option because they are not metabolized by the liver.

  “It is imperative to recognize that the WHI study only studies results of using synthetic, oral estrogens and progestins. It is important to clarify the confusion so women feel comfortable and understand the differences between the traditional synthetic HRT and Bio-Identical Hormones(BHRT). The WHI was not based on BHRT or physiological studies, it was based on synthetic, animal-derived, and traditional oral estrogens and progestins,” explains Dr. Rocco.

  Hormone Replacement Therapy and Menopause

  Postmenopausal women account for approximately 55 million people in the United States and 1.1 billion people worldwide. During menopause, a woman’s body no longer produces adequate amounts of the hormones estrogen and progesterone. According to Dr. Rocco, this drop in hormone levels can cause uncomfortable menopause symptoms, including hot flashes, night sweats, anxiety, depression, weight gain, difficulty sleeping, and difficulty losing weight. These symptoms can last for up to ten years after the start of menopause.

  Hormone replacement therapy is used to relieve menopausal symptoms in women.

  Generally, if a postmenopausal woman has a uterus, they will be prescribed a combination of estrogen and progesterone. This is because progesterone can help protect women with a uterus from endometrial cancer, which can form from estrogen-only therapy. If the woman no longer has a uterus due to a hysterectomy, then they will be prescribed estrogen only.

  However, HRT isn’t appropriate for everyone and, according to Ms. Pelz, it shouldn’t be seen as a universal fix. “I sometimes work with clients who view hormone replacement as a cure-all, or something that can replace a healthy lifestyle—but that’s not the case! If you’re going through menopause, it’s more important than ever to keep up a healthy diet and lifestyle.”

  Advantages and Disadvantages of Hormone Replacement Therapy

  The most immediate advantage of HRT is relief from uncomfortable menopausal symptoms such as night sweats, hot flashes, insomnia, and vaginal dryness. Studies suggest that long-term hormone therapy can prevent bone fractures.

  There is also evidence that HRT could help lower the risk of bowel cancer and prevent bone loss (osteoporosis).

  As for disadvantages, research suggests that women on HRT have higher rates of blood clots, stroke, and breast cancer compared to women who are not on HRT. The risk of heart attack may also be slightly increased. In general, the longer a woman is on HRT, the greater the risk of grave side effects. Therefore, treatment should be for the shortest amount of time possible, using the lowest effective dose possible.

  “Some disadvantages of taking HRT include the need to apply topical cream morning and night, which can be cumbersome, finding a qualified physician or clinician to prescribe and monitor it, and it can be pricey as insurance does not cover it,” notes Dr. Rocco.

  Natural Alternatives to Hormone Replacement Therapy

  For those who prefer not to take hormones, there are certain lifestyle changes and natural alternatives that may help alleviate menopausal symptoms. Exercise, eating a balanced diet, relaxation therapy, and yoga are all lifestyle changes that can help lessen the severity of menopausal symptoms. Avoiding potential triggers, such as caffeine, smoking, alcohol, and spicy foods, may also be beneficial.

  “You’d be amazed by how much you can improve your hormone levels and ease menopause symptoms through lifestyle changes,” confirms Ms. Pelz.

  As far as exercise, Ms. Pelz specifically recommends lifting weights and walking, explaining, “Weightlifting increases sex hormones, which is good for menopausal symptoms. But it does a lot more than that too. Muscle mass and bone density are two of the biggest predictors of quality of life as you age. Menopause decreases both of them—and lifting weights reverses those declines, ensuring you look and feel your best as you age. Also, walk every day.”

  “It sounds basic, but research shows that low-level movement throughout the day makes a huge difference to both your hormone production and your overall health. I also think it’s one of the most underrated tools for weight loss. Aim for 10,000 steps a day if you can, but start with whatever’s possible. Even 1,000 steps a day will make a big change to how you feel if you’re consistent with it,” she adds.

  Foods containing soy have been shown to alleviate menopause symptoms due to the way soy mimics estrogen in the body. Ms. Pelz also recommends that menopausal women reduce their sugar and refined carbohydrate intake, explaining, “They wreak havoc on your hormones and they’ll make you gain weight, which causes further hormone disruptions. Trade the dessert and simple carbs for complex carbs like squash, sweet potato, lentils, and beans. This is good advice for anyone, but it’s especially important during and after menopause.”

  Dr. Rocco agrees that dietary changes can make a huge difference. She recommends a diet rich in vegetables, plant-based foods, and clean meats, as well as reducing one’s sugar intake to improve cardiovascular health. “Additionally, reducing alcohol intake is crucial as it affects hormones and increases cortisol production, leading to weight gain. Including more lentils and yams in the diet provides phytoestrogens which can naturally increase estrogen production,” she advises.

  Finally, certain herbal remedies may also be helpful during menopause, including but not limited to:

  • Black cohosh
  • Red clover
  • Evening primrose oil
  • Lemon balm
  • Fenugreek
  • Fennel
  • Ginkgo biloba
  • Licorice

  These herbal remedies can balance hormone levels and/or improve sleep, thus potentially alleviating menopause symptoms.

  Dr. Rocco believes natural supplements can help menopausal women, specifically recommending green tea and  DIM (diinodolylmethane) to help regulate hormones. “Taking vitamin D is beneficial as it improves the immune system and helps mitigate depression and anxiety linked to low vitamin D levels. Avoiding gummy vitamins is advisable due to their shorter half-life and sugar content,” she says.

  It’s important to note that some herbal remedies can have serious interactions with certain medications, so always talk to your health care provider before taking any herbal remedies along with prescription or over-the-counter medications.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 05/20/2024 – 23:00

• Babylon Bee: Satan Asks Leftists To Tone The Evil Down A Notch
  Babylon Bee: Satan Asks Leftists To Tone The Evil Down A Notch

  In a regularly scheduled meeting with leftist activists and Democrat NGOs, Satan tries to to explain the value of subtlety.  It does not go well.  The Babylon Bee has become famous in a disturbing way – Their parodies often end up predicting future realities, proving that we now live in Clown World whether we like it or not.

  The comedy sketch does bring up a valid question that needs to be addressed:  Why has the political left put all their evil out in the open all of a sudden?  They used to hide their intentions behind empty platitudes and declarations of “peace and love and equality.”  Today we have CRT, DEI, ESG and an intersectional hellscape saturating society with the mentally ill. 

  Even Satan thinks maybe leftists are taking things a bit too far a bit too fast.  File this under “it’s funny because it’s true.” 

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 05/20/2024 – 22:40

• Conservative Group Files Emergency Court Motion To Get Biden–Hur Audio Tapes
  Conservative Group Files Emergency Court Motion To Get Biden–Hur Audio Tapes

  Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  The Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, has filed an emergency motion in a Washington court seeking to accelerate the release of audio tapes of President Joe Biden’s interview with special counsel Robert Hur, over which the White House recently asserted executive privilege.

  

  The emergency motion, filed on May 17 at the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, seeks to modify the court’s briefing schedule for three pending Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) lawsuits that seek the audio recordings of roughly five hours of interviews that President Biden had with the special counsel in relation to a classified documents mishandling probe.

  The motion seeks to speed up the court battle over the release of the tapes, with The Heritage Foundation arguing in the filing that President Biden’s assertion of executive privilege over the tapes on May 16 adds urgency to the FOIA lawsuits and that the Department of Justice (DOJ) didn’t need as much time to prepare its response to the FOIA requests as it previously claimed.

  “The Department’s asserted time constraints were misleading,” The Heritage Foundation attorneys wrote in the motion. “The Department did not need the time to prepare a position and declarations it twice told the Court it did. A formal assertion of Executive Privilege is an extraordinary undertaking.”

  U.S. District Judge Timothy Kelly has set a schedule for the FOIA lawsuits that gives the DOJ until May 31 to submit filings in support of withholding the tapes. It also allows various other filings to be made through July 29. In their emergency motion, Heritage Foundation attorneys asked that the schedule be modified to give the DOJ until May 27 to make their arguments and that the deadline for all other filings be set at July 1.

  The tapes are at the center of a dispute between House Republicans and Attorney General Merrick Garland, who has defied a subpoena for them and faces contempt proceedings.

  House Republicans have said that they want to obtain the recordings to verify Mr. Hur’s assertions that President Biden couldn’t recollect certain facts during the interview. They have alleged that a two-tiered justice system exists because Mr. Hur opted to not charge President Biden while former President Donald Trump faces multiple charges in connection with his own classified documents probe.

  “At trial, Mr. Biden would likely present himself to a jury, as he did during our interview of him, as a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory,” the special counsel wrote in his 388-page report, which found that President Biden “willfully retained and disclosed classified materials” when he was a private citizen after the end of his term as vice president during the Obama administration.

  Mr. Hur, who faced criticism from Democrats and the White House for remarks on the president’s cognitive capacity in his report, didn’t recommend charges against President Biden, in part because of his ailing memory.

  While Republicans have said that they want the tapes to verify Mr. Hur’s assertions, Democrats have argued that Republicans want to use the tapes in campaign ads to portray President Biden as a frail leader with a poor memory who’s too old to serve another term in the Oval Office.

  Mr. Hur revealed in testimony before the House Judiciary Committee in March that White House officials sought to soften his report’s characterizations of President Biden’s ailing memory.

  More Details

  President Biden on May 16 asserted executive privilege over the interview tapes, with the White House counsel’s office notifying House Republicans of the move just hours before they were expected to recommend holding Mr. Garland in contempt for refusing to hand them over.

  Mr. Garland and White House Counsel Ed Siskel defended the executive privilege assertion as necessary because it could affect future investigations. In a May 15 letter to the president, Mr. Garland said that the “committee’s needs are plainly insufficient to outweigh the deleterious effects that the production of the recordings would have on the integrity and effectiveness of similar law enforcement investigations in the future.”

  President Biden’s counsel accused House Republicans of wanting the tapes to craft political attack ads.

  “The absence of a legitimate need for the audio recordings lays bare your likely goal—to chop them up, distort them, and use them for partisan political purposes,” Ed Siskel, President Biden’s counsel, wrote to Reps. James Comer (R-Ky.) and Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) in a May 16 letter. “Demanding such sensitive and constitutionally-protected law enforcement materials from the Executive Branch because you want to manipulate them for potential political gain is inappropriate.”

  Still, the House Oversight Committee, chaired by Mr. Comer, and the House Judiciary Committee, chaired by Mr. Jordan, both voted on May 16 to hold Mr. Garland in contempt of Congress despite President Biden’s executive privilege intervention.

  In their court filing, Heritage Foundation attorneys argued that the fact that the House committees voted to recommend holding Mr. Garland in contempt “adds to the compelling and already extraordinary interest in the disclosure of the audio recording.”

  The contempt measure would still need to pass the House before a referral is made to the DOJ, and it remains unclear whether House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) would bring a resolution to the floor.

  Mr. Johnson has been critical of efforts to block the release of the tapes.

  “President Biden is apparently afraid for the citizens of this country and everyone to hear those tapes,” he said at a press conference.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 05/20/2024 – 22:20

• Elon Musk Says Starship Megarocket Launch In Weeks
  Elon Musk Says Starship Megarocket Launch In Weeks

  SpaceX’s Starship mega-rocket, the world’s largest and most powerful rocket, will probably have its fourth flight “in about two weeks,” Elon Musk wrote on X. 

  The objective is for Starship “to get through max reentry heating,” Musk said, adding, “Worth noting that no one has ever succeeded in creating a fully reusable heat shield. Shuttle required >6 months of rework.” 

  Starship Flight 4 in about 2 weeks.

  Primary goal is getting through max reentry heating.

  Worth noting that no one has ever succeeded in creating a fully reusable heat shield. Shuttle required >6 months of rework. https://t.co/4ffEHSLRbu

  — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 20, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Last Wednesday, SpaceX announced that the Starship rocket was “full stack”—meaning its “Ship” upper stage was atop its “Super Heavy” first-stage booster on the orbital launch mount at the Starbase site in Boca Chica, Texas, near Brownsville.

  Full stack of Flight 4 Starship pic.twitter.com/TPprnj0zC4

  — SpaceX (@SpaceX) May 16, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  SpaceX has already tested the Raptor engines of both vehicles on the orbital launch mount, a standard pre-launch procedure known as static fires. 

  Starship’s first three test flights occurred in April 2023, November 2023, and March 14 of this year. Engineers have rapidly improved Starship’s performance in each launch after learning from previous failures. 

  From reusable rockets to now reusable heat shields, Musk’s domination in space launches puts Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin and United Launch Alliance to utter shame. 

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 05/20/2024 – 22:00

• Historic Trucking Rate Disparity Could Cripple Service In Late 2024
  Historic Trucking Rate Disparity Could Cripple Service In Late 2024

  By Zach Strickland of FreightWaves

  Truckload contract rates continue to show strong elevation in relation to spot rates excluding estimated fuel costs above $1.20 a gallon.

  

  This historic spread — currently about 30% versus about 12% in 2019 — suggests there is an extraordinary amount of potential disparity among rates in the truckload market that could leave several shippers without a truck when the market inevitably shifts.

  

  Contract or long-term rates are generally negotiated on an annual basis between shipper and transportation service provider.

  In an erratic capacity environment, these rates are subject to midterm renegotiation, both higher and lower. This is where the term “paper rates” originates, because they are as thin as paper in terms of reliability.

  On the spot

  Spot rates are negotiated on an ad hoc or transactional basis and are typically only good for a matter of days.

  The spot market is a place where shippers look to source capacity when they either do not have a contract carrier or their existing carriers do not have availability. In loose capacity environments — such as the current one — it can also be a place to get immediate cost savings or try other carriers to deepen their lists of potential providers.

  From the carrier perspective, the spot market is a place to fill gaps in their networks — aka backhauls — or haul more profitable freight. The former is more the use case in a market like the one that we are currently in, though there is always this potential. 

  Too many trucks for too long

  The current market is historically oversupplied, with capacity having been inflated to an unsustainable level by the pandemic-era consumption boom. The U.S. truckload market has been in a recession since the first half of 2022 but is moving toward a more balanced environment nearly invisibly.

  

  Looking at an example of supply and demand dynamics in the form of active motor carrier of property operating authorities issued by the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration versus the national Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI), capacity is falling while demand is stable. 

  While this is not a perfect comparison since an operating authority can be one or 5,000 trucks, it is a good indication that capacity is coming offline and the market is moving toward equilibrium. 

  The current ratio of operating authority to tender is about 31:1. Historically, the market has been tight when the ratio is below 24:1. The ratio peaked in early 2023 around 37:1 and was at its lowest in September 2020 around 16:1. This is by no means scientific but just a way to estimate where we are in the process.

  Chasing the bottom

  During this lengthy downturn, rates have been pushed to levels where carriers are at or below costs as they bid against each other to maintain enough volume to support their fleets. The spot market is the most extreme version of this as it is used as a last resort for many asset-based providers.

  Traditionally there are shippers, carriers and brokers who offer rates based on the spot market rates which are largely below carrier operating costs. Shippers and brokers who have long-term rates at or near spot market prices are at the most risk for increased levels of service failure later in the year when the market is expected to tighten.

  It is hard to tell, but spot rates are already trending higher over the past year as capacity has fallen out. This is telling, as it is an indication that the spot market is effectively the floor for pricing and it is rising at a near-imperceptible rate.

  Roadcheck

  

  International Roadcheck took place this past week, with safety officials conducting inspection blitzes on equipment. Many operators, especially in a market where rates are suppressed, avoid driving during this week, which causes a temporary reduction in capacity. Spot rates have spiked 7% over the past week.

  Shippers saw their service failure chances increase during this time. Tender rejection rates increased from 3.1% to 4.1% last week. There have been stronger jumps but shippers who have rates on the low end of the spectrum had the biggest exposure to this event.

  Both spot and rejection rates remained relatively low from a historic standpoint — the market still has plenty of available capacity to recover from such an event — but that buffer is deteriorating.

  Just a drop in the ocean, but a wave is approaching

  More than the summer shipping season, the fourth quarter will likely be a much tighter environment with much less predictable demand. Shippers’ sense of urgency is also much higher as retail peak hits. 

  It will not take much to cause a waterfall of service failures if carriers get the chance to haul profitable freight. The most desperate carriers will have given the lowest rates and will likely be the first to jump ship to make ends meet at the slightest sign of disruption.

  The result of that could be crippling to companies that chased the bottom dollar or based long-term rate targets on the spot market.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 05/20/2024 – 21:40

• Researchers Discover New Mechanism Linking Diet And Cancer Risk
  Researchers Discover New Mechanism Linking Diet And Cancer Risk

  Authored by Jennifer Sweenie via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  You may have heard that sugar feeds cancer cells, and evidence supports that. However, the missing link in this narrative has been a thorough understanding of just “how” sugar feeds cancer—until now. A recent study published in Cell in April 2024 uncovers a new mechanism linking uncontrolled blood sugar and poor diet with cancer risk.

  

  The research, performed at the National University of Singapore, Cancer Science Institute of Singapore, and led by professor Ashok Venkitaraman and Dr. Li Ren Kong, found a chemical released when the body breaks down sugar also suppresses a gene expression that prevents the formation of tumors.

  This discovery provides valuable insights into how one’s dietary habits can impact their risk of developing cancer and forges a clear path to understanding how to reverse that risk with food choices.

  Methylglyoxal–A Temporary Off-Switch

  It was previously believed that cancer-preventing genes must be permanently deactivated before malignant tumors can form. However, this recent discovery suggests that a chemical, methylglyoxal (MGO), released whenever the body breaks down glucose, can temporarily switch off cancer-protecting mechanisms.

  Dr. Kong, first author of the study, told The Epoch Times in an email, “It has been shown that diabetic and obese individuals have a higher risk of cancer, posing as a significant societal risk. Yet, the exact cause remains debatable.” He continues, “Our study now unearthed a clue which may explain the connection between cancer risk and diet, as well as common diseases like diabetes, which arise from poor diets.”

  Dr. Kong continues, “We found that an endogenously synthesized metabolite can cause faults in our DNA that are early warning signs of cancer development, by inhibiting a cancer-preventing gene (known as the BRCA2).”

  BRCA2 is a gene that repairs DNA and helps make a protein that suppresses tumor growth and cancer cell proliferation. A BRCA2 gene mutation is associated primarily with a higher risk of developing breast and ovarian cancers, as well as other cancers. Those with a faulty copy of the BRCA2 gene are particularly susceptible to DNA damage from MGO.

  However, the study showed that those without a predisposition to cancer also face an increased risk of developing the disease from elevated MGO levels. The study found that chronically elevated levels of blood sugar can result in a compounded increase in cancer risk.

  Per Dr. Kong, “This study showcases the impact of methylglyoxal in inhibiting the function of tumour suppressor, such as BRCA2, suggesting that repeated episodes of poor diet or uncontrolled diabetes can ‘add up’ over time to increase cancer risk.”

  The Methylglyoxal and Cancer Relationship

  MGO is a metabolite of glucose—a byproduct made when our cells break down sugar, mainly glucose and fructose, to create energy. MGO is capable of temporarily destroying the BRCA2 protein, leading to lower levels of the protein in the cells and thus inhibiting its ability to prevent tumor formation. The more sugar your body needs to break down, the higher the levels of this chemical, and the higher your risk of developing malignant tumors.

  Dr. Kong explains, “Accumulation of methylglyoxal is found in cancer cells undergoing active metabolism. People whose diet is poor may also experience higher than normal levels of methylglyoxal. The connection we unearthed may help to explain why diabetes, obesity, or poor diet can heighten cancer risk.”

  MGO is challenging to measure on its own. Early detection of elevated levels is possible with a routine HbA1C blood test that measures your average blood sugar levels over the past two to three months and is typically used to diagnose diabetes. This new research may provide a mechanism for detecting early warning signs of developing cancer.

  “In patients with prediabetes/diabetes, high methylglyoxal levels can usually be controlled with diet, exercise and/or medicines. We are aiming to propose the same for families with high risk of cancers, such as those with BRCA2 mutation,” explained Dr. Kong.

  More research is needed, but the study’s findings may open the door to new methods of mitigating cancer risk. “It is important to take note that our work was carried out in cellular models, not in patients, so it would be premature to give specific advice to reduce risk on this basis. However, the new knowledge from our study could influence the directions of future research in this area, and eventually have implications for cancer prevention.

  “For instance, poor diets rich in sugar or refined carbohydrates are known to cause blood glucose levels to spike. We are now looking at larger cancer cohorts to connect these dots,” Dr. Kong concludes.

  The Diet and Cancer Connection

  Dr. Simpson, medical director of Opt Health, told The Epoch Times in an email, “It’s genes loading the gun, but your lifestyle that pulls the trigger. Every bite of food you take is really information. It’s either going to turn on your longevity genes or it’s going to turn on your killer genes. So cancer is very much in large part self-induced by the individual diet.”

  A 2018 study published by Cambridge University Press found an association between higher intakes of sugar-sweetened soft drinks and an increased risk of obesity-related cancers. Research published in the American Journal of Clinical Nutrition in 2020 concluded that sugars may be a risk factor for cancer, breast in particular. Cancer cells are ravenous for sugar, consuming it at a rate 200 times that of normal cells.

  Healthy Dietary Choices for Reducing Cancer Risk

  A consensus on the best dietary approach for reducing cancer risk has yet to be determined, and further research is needed. However, the new findings of the Cell study on MGO support reducing sugar intake as a means to mitigate cancer risk. A study published in January in Diabetes & Metabolism shows that a Mediterranean diet style of eating may help reduce MGO levels.

  In 2023, a study published in Cell determined that a ketogenic diet may be an effective nutritional intervention for cancer patients as it helped slow the growth of cancer cells in mice—while a review published in JAMA Oncology in 2022 found that the current evidence available supports a plant-enriched diet for reducing cancer risk.

  Dr. Simpson stresses the importance of real food and healthy macronutrients with a low-carb intake for the health of our cells. “The mitochondria is the most important signaling molecule and energy-producing organelle that we have in our body. [Eat] lots of vegetables, healthy proteins and healthy fats, fish, eggs, yogurt.” He continues, “Lots of green, above-ground vegetables, some fruits, everything that is naturally grown and is not processed.”

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 05/20/2024 – 21:20

• The Biden Administration's Scientific Integrity Policies
  The Biden Administration’s Scientific Integrity Policies

  Authored by Curtis Schube via RealClearPolitics,

  It is no secret that the Biden administration has prioritized insulating the administrative state from the will of the people. The goal is placing career officials on equal footing with agency leadership (i.e., political appointees). Undoing Schedule F, which would categorize federal employees with policymaking authority so as to not give them the same civil service protections as career employees, is a more high-profile example. But a lesser-known effort, detailed in a recent Council to Modernize Governance publication, is underway with scientific integrity policies.

  

  Scientific integrity policies are not new. They were first developed in the late 1990s and focused science without predetermined outcomes informing policy decisions. They also required agencies to represent findings fairly and accurately. The Obama administration added that scientific integrity includes open discussion and firm commitment to the evidence. Clearly, this is good policy.

  However, the Biden administration has quietly added new components to these scientific integrity policies. It issued an executive order directing agencies to curb “political considerations” or “improper influence” in science, which is clever rhetoric that hides the true intent.

  The Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) was the first to issue this policy change, stating scientific findings “must not be suppressed, delayed, or altered for political purposes….” The policy, which applies to agency leadership (i.e., officials appointed by a president), prohibits “interference” in the “design, proposal, conduct, management, [and] evaluation” of studies. Yet it requires scientists to be included in policy decisions. Indeed, prohibiting the “design” of a study or the action of even “proposing” one –a critical step for many efforts – effectively boxes out those running federal agencies from their own agency’s direction.

  The policy creates an avenue for employees to report one another should they perceive said “improper influence.” But these types of rights already exist in the form of Inspector General or EEOC complaints and are unnecessary. But this reporting protocol would likely have a bottom-up effect, where a subordinate employee would hold a trump card over a superior. Encouraging employees to report one another for outside-the-box thoughts hardly fosters ingenuity (or a cohesive work environment).

  The policies themselves also appear to undermine, rather than protect, scientific integrity. For instance, the administration’s mandating of equal treatment for “indigenous knowledge” is worrisome. Science should be objective, rigorous, and subject to peer-review and replication. Indigenous knowledge offers us none of these characteristics, as it is based upon tradition. And which indigenous voices will get priority? For example, the Department of the Interior recently relied upon one version of indigenous knowledge to oppose energy development in ANWR over the indigenous knowledge of local Alaska tribes who favor such development. Situations like this prove the value of objective science guiding policy decisions.

  Identity politics is another suspect priority. Strangely, the policies go out of their way to require inclusivity “of all scientists,” which is followed by diversity, equity, and inclusion language. One’s sex, race, sexual orientation, etc. seemingly has little bearing on objective evidence.

  Many agencies, including the EPA and the Department of Health and Human Services have implemented similar changes. EPA leadership is currently negotiating with the agency workers’ union to embed these policy changes within the collective bargaining agreement. This means that the government is headed toward a binding contract between it and the union, which can be harder to undue than a simple regulation.

  The dangers are clear. Consistent with repealing Schedule F, the idea appears designed to prevent career employees from having to answer to agency leadership appointed by future administrations. Given that agency leaders are ultimately the only people within an agency who are subject to the will of the people (elections), the effort is hardly democratic.

  It is likely illegal too. These policy changes are effectively a disguised effort to protect certain policy preferences during future administrations by propping up employees who have never been appointed. But the Appointments Clause gives the President alone the authority to appoint officers of the United States. An officer of the United States is one who “exercise[es] significant authority pursuant to the laws of the United States.” Handing a portion of this authority to employees and greatly limiting their respective constitutional officers’ review effectively makes those career employees unappointed officers of the United States. This is in direct opposition to the design of our Founding Fathers.

  A future administration should act immediately to restore the well-intentioned scientific integrity policies from prior administrations. The American public deserves, and the Constitution requires, federal agency leaders who are empowered to make informed decisions and be accountable to the people. This cannot occur in an environment where decisions are dictated by subordinates with pre-determined outcomes.

  Curtis Schube is the Executive Director for Council to Modernize Governance, a think tank committed to making the administration of government more efficient, representative, and restrained. He is formerly a constitutional and administrative law attorney.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 05/20/2024 – 21:00

• Court Ruling Means California Schools Can Violate Students' Rights When Following Public Health Orders
  Court Ruling Means California Schools Can Violate Students’ Rights When Following Public Health Orders

  Authored by Kristin Lang via The Epoch Times,

  As we near the end of the school year, a new court ruling may have some parents rethinking whether they want to enroll their children in California’s public schools this fall.

  

  Those of you living in Southern California will likely remember the case of Aidan Palicke. An academically-gifted Yorba Linda High School student and captain of the track team, Aidan was forced to take his exams outside in 40-degree weather wearing only a t-shirt. School officials singled out Aidan for wearing a formerly acceptable mesh face mask to school during the COVID era.

  “I was freezing, and all of the other students were looking at me through the window,” Aidan told me.

  “My fingers were in so much pain from the cold that it was hard to concentrate on my exam.”

  Aidan said some teachers encouraged his fellow students to ridicule him for not conforming to the mid-year change in masking policy. Aidan said he was hauled into the principals’ office repeatedly, removed from campus, and ultimately forced into a home-based study program against his wishes.

  Aidan’s family sued the Placentia Yorba Linda School District (PYLUSD) in March 2022, arguing that some PYLUSD board members colluded to change masking policy mid-year to punish “conservative” students or students whose parents were vocal in opposing various COVID measures at the school.

  

  (L-R) Shari, Aidan, and Chris Palicke. (Courtesy of the Palicke Family)

  According to evidence presented in court, confusion ensued across the school district as teachers and school officials selectively enforced this policy, allegedly allowing favored students to wear any mask, or no mask at all. Some school board members testified that they wanted to stop the chaos the new masking policy was creating but were blocked from voting on it by other members of the school board.

  “After two years of litigation, an Orange County Superior Court judge who had been ruling in favor of the Palicke family and against dismissal suddenly reversed course and ruled that school officials were immune from liability for their admittedly illegal and abusive actions to students during the COVID era—setting a dangerous precedent,” said Rita Barnett-Rose, an attorney for the Palicke family during a press conference in Orange County on May 13.

  “Specifically, Judge Deborah Servino determined that, even though the facts of the case undeniably showed that certain PYLUSD school officials violated their students’ constitutional and civil rights, they were nevertheless entitled to legislative immunity because they were enforcing public health orders.”

  Judge Servino further ruled that because the school district has since withdrawn their mask mandate, and Aidan Palicke has already been forced out of the school district, all claims against school officials are “moot,” and Aidan is no longer entitled to be compensated for the harm inflicted on him.

  At the PYLUSD board meeting on May 7, school board member Marilyn Anderson, a defendant in the case, announced to a smattering of applause, “The Palicke lawsuit, it’s not in the agenda anymore because it was dismissed by the judge!”

  However, the Palicke family is getting some surprising and much-needed support from the new PYLUSD superintendent of schools, Alex Cherniss. In an open letter to the Palicke family on May 8, he called Ms. Anderson’s statement “abhorrent” and “shameful,” writing:

  “Dear Mr. and Mrs. Palicke …

  “As an educational leader, I have spent years pushing back against uninformed and overly punitive Covid restrictions that truly damaged our kids. …

  “I found the actions taken by Ms. Marilyn Anderson at the Board of Education meeting last night to be abhorrent. … Clearly, the announcement of a case dismissal in her board comments violated the Brown Act. …

  “I have no doubt that the purpose of her public statement … was her way of gloating at the fact that your case was no longer relevant to her or to the school district. Her statement, and the subsequent applause at the expense of your son was truly shameful.”

  I reached out to Marilyn Anderson for comment. As of the time this article was published, she had not responded.

  The Palicke family is appealing the case despite having used up significant family savings in their quest to seek justice for their child. The Palickes are getting some financial support from non-profit Free Now Foundation, where, in full transparency, I work as editor-in-chief.

  

  The Palicke family and attorneys at a press conference in Orange County, Calif., on May 13, 2024. (Courtesy of Judy Julin)

  This week, at the press conference in Orange County, Aidan’s father Chris Palicke vowed to fight on.

  “The granting of this motion [to dismiss] was appalling,” said Mr. Palicke. “This means that all schools in California are allowed to abuse and hurt children. We need to fight this and do what’s right not just for my family but for all children.”

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 05/20/2024 – 20:40

• How Lawfare Turned Trump Into A Superhero
  How Lawfare Turned Trump Into A Superhero

  Authored by Frank Miele via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Last week, President Biden raised the white flag of surrender to Donald Trump when he offered to debate the presumptive GOP nominee in June and September.

  

  No one saw this coming. Trump had been taunting Biden with his offer to debate “anytime, anywhere, any place,” but it was assumed that Biden and his handlers would shy away from the challenge, both because it represented a significant risk that Biden would implode onstage and also because it would give Trump bragging rights.

  Naturally, Trump accepted Biden’s offer immediately, and then at nearly the speed of light, it was announced just minutes later that both candidates would debate on CNN on June 27 and on ABC on Sept. 10.

  Until then, it was not even certain that debates would take place at all this year, let alone as early as June. Both candidates had grudges against the Commission on Presidential Debates, and the Democrats apparently thought they could avoid the risk of traditional debates as part of their plan to keep his opponent tied up in court throughout the campaign season.

  But that scheme was proving to be an albatross. Despite their success at keeping Trump tied down in court, the results have proven less than optimal for Team Biden. The Georgia prosecution for election interference was undermined by Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis’ predilection for highly paid boyfriends and cash-only getaways. The two federal prosecutions by Special Counsel Jack Smith have been stymied in one case by the Supreme Court of the United States doing its job and in the other by District Judge Aileen Cannon doing hers. Neither case has any realistic chance of going to trial before Election Day.

  That leaves the New York State prosecution by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, who accused Trump of recording legal expenses as legal expenses and claimed without evidence that the legal expenses were somehow fraudulently recorded to cover up some never-disclosed crime that the jury was meant to somehow intuit outside the court record.

  After four weeks, we are close to a verdict in that case, and though there is a chance that the Democrat-heavy jury will return a guilty verdict, it seems increasingly unlikely. Star witness Michael Cohen was proven by the defense in cross-examination to be a self-serving, Trump-hating liar whose testimony, even if believed, didn’t prove that Trump committed any crime. I’m betting on a hung jury, with a reasonable chance for an outright acquittal, but even if Trump were convicted it is likely his poll numbers would rise once again.

  Face it, the Democrats who threw everything they had at Donald Trump in four courthouses must have been shocked to see him emerging Rambo-like from the smoking wreckage of our justice system. But if they underestimated Trump, it is their own fault.

  In fact, the persecution of Trump for his role as the leader of a populist political movement has so angered Republican and independent voters that instead of destroying him, his opponents have elevated him into a superhero – someone virtually impervious to the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune.

  If you don’t believe me – or the polls – then watch the video of Trump’s campaign rally in Wildwood, N.J., where he drew a huge crowd three weeks into his so-called “hush money” trial. That’s New Jersey, where no Republican has won the presidential race since Ronald Reagan! But in the most recent polling, Trump is only seven points behind Biden in a state that the Democrat won by 20 points in 2020.

  Moreover, the seeming injustice of Trump being turned into a political martyr by his opponents has resonated with the black community. Minority voters and young voters are turning to Trump in part because they see him as the victim of a rigged system, just as many of them have been. If blacks and Hispanics propel Trump to victory, that will be further proof of his superpowers.

  Obviously, the Biden campaign has been well aware of the collapse of their party’s blue wall of Democratic prosecutions, and with Hunter Biden going on trial in two separate federal cases in June, it was time to change the narrative. That’s why Biden blinked and unceremoniously agreed to debate Trump practically immediately.

  We learned two things from that development. One is predictable: It is a rule of thumb that the candidate who is most anxious to debate is the one who is losing. Joe Biden seems to fit the bill.

  But the other lesson surprised some White House watchers. By agreeing to a primetime debate where he will have to respond to difficult questions without a teleprompter, President Biden showed himself for once to be making decisions on his own. It seems unlikely that his so-called handlers would have allowed their candidate to put himself in harm’s way, so the probable explanation is that Biden went rogue.

  And so now, for once, the American public will be able to see the president thinking on his feet, and can assess whether he has his full faculties or not. But standing next to Donald Trump, who is on target to escape his scheduled martyrdom, it’s going to be hard for Joe Biden to look like anything except an afterthought.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 05/20/2024 – 20:20

• Wall Street's Biggest Bear, Mike Wilson, Finally Capitulates
  Wall Street’s Biggest Bear, Mike Wilson, Finally Capitulates

  Almost one thousand points higher and almost a year after he said to short the S&P at 3,900 in December 2022, Mike Wilson – who along with JPM’s Marko Kolanovic was the most steadfast bear on Wall Street – has finally capitulated.

  Recall that last October, just around the time we and a handful of others said a major market meltup was coming – and it turned out to be the biggest such meltup in history – Morgan Stanley’s chief equity strategist Mike Wilson said that his “observations on narrowing breadth, cautious factor leadership, falling earnings revisions and fading consumer and business confidence tell a different story than the consensus, which sees a rally into year-end that’s based mostly on bearish sentiment and seasonal tendencies” adding that a “rally into year-end looks more unlikely to us.”

  In retrospect, “consensus” was right (actually the call for a meltup was anything but consensus, but this is just Mike trying to sound ultra contrarian when in reality he was in the same bearish echo chamber as everyone else in late October), while Wilson’s call to kiss a year-end rally goodbye, will go down in history as one of the worst in history…

  this may go down as the worst call in history https://t.co/yvljHlo4XR

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 1, 2023

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  … as markets have melted up in a straight line since his note, with a mindblowing 24 weeks of gains since late October, and what’s worse Wilson literally bottom-ticked an explosive 30% gain in the S&P since the fateful “no rally” call.

  

  What happened then? Well, having dug himself into an impossibly deep hole, Wilson knew that capitulation would crush his credibility as an analyst who once upon a time was good at timing market inflection points and was hoping that a broken clock would finally be right that stocks would finally crack, and he would be able to go home head held high, writing an “I told you so” note to his clients and readers (even though stocks first moved 20% in the opposite direction of his call, peaking at 4,600 this summer)… if only he could wait a little longer.

  And so one week passed, then another, and another, and all through this time Wilson would “explain” why stocks kept levitating higher (i.e., why he was wrong) and instead of flipping his call and joining the momentum higher (and at least saving his clients some money) he would keep doubling down on a losing position… only to “explain” the coming week why, again, stocks kept levitating higher.

  Then in late December, Wilson took the first tentative step to admitting he had gotten all of 2023 wrong, when picking up on something we have been pounding the table since last summer, he said that “Equities Have The Green Light To Ramp Higher.”

  That, however, was about the weakest endorsement of the ongoing melt-up one could muster, and instead of placating his clients and superiors, it only infuriated them further as it was apparent Wilson wanted to have his bearish cake while eating his bullish flip-flop (he refused to change his 4,500 S&P year-end price target), and then in February the humiliation was complete when Wilson – Morgan Stanley’s chief US equity strategist – was forced to step down from his role as the chair of the bank’s Global Investment Committee, and instead would “focus on serving his key institutional clients, where the demand for generating tactical alpha is intensifying,” which of course was even more hilarious as Wilson had failed to generate any alpha – or beta – since some time in mid-2022.

  And so, having pretty much lost everything, both his stock-picking credibility and also his standing in the company’s org chart, there was little left for him to lose, which brings us to today when in his just published “mid-year outlook” note (available to pro subscribers in the usual place), Wilson – formerly one of Wall Street’s most prominent bears – just turned positive in his outlook for US stocks.

  That’s right: having missed the most powerful rally in a generation, with the S&P and Nasdaq trading at all time highs, and the Dow above 40,000 for the first time ever, Wilson “stunned” his readers by dramatically raising his June 2025 S&P price target to 5,400, from his previous forecast which saw the S&P tumbling to 4,500, or 15%, by December.

  

  Hoping to put his entire bearish phase behind him, Wilson jumps straight to declaring that in his latest “base case 12-month price target moves to 5,400″ and explains that “In the base case, we forecast a 19x P/E multiple on 12-month forward EPS (June 2026) of US$283, which equates to a 5,400 forward 12-month price target. Our 2024 and 2025 earnings growth forecasts (8% and 13%, respectively) assume healthy, mid single- digit top-line growth in addition to margin expansion in both years as positive operating leverage resumes (particularly in 2025).” Funny how he did not “assume” any of these things as recently as a week ago.

  And while Wilson wistfully contemplates his bear case that could see stocks drop to 4,200 (or roughly what was his base case On this front, he also notes that his bull (6,350) case represents ~20% upside potential versus the current index level, respectively: “Our bull case reflects stronger (11-15%) EPS growth driven by continued fiscal support and cyclical/structural drivers out to 2026 alongside multiple expansion to ~21x. Our bear case incorporates a recession (negative EPS growth and multiple compression).”

  There is a bunch of other arguments for the various bear and bull cases (all laid out in detail in his note available to pro subs), but the bottom line is that Wilson finally admits he really has no idea what is coming (hence the 20% upside, downside interval of “confidence”) but he knows that whatever he predicted before is wrong.

  Amusingly, even in his capitulation, he desperately tries to hold on to the bearish case as if that – or his reputation – even matters any more. To do that, he converts all nominal numbers into inflation adjusted ones or, even better, shows returns in gold terms, something we haven’t seen since the days of Dennis Gartman:

  Finally, real equity returns have looked less attractive over the past few years as policy makers try to inflate out of the excessive debt the government and creditors have accumulated over the past 2 decades. More specifically, when looking at equity returns after inflation, we have yet to make new highs in all of the major indices. In a world where returns are measured and rewarded in nominal terms, such an analysis may not be relevant to most clients. However, we do think there is an important message in this analysis as a sign that this rally is not nearly as strong as the one in 2020-21 when companies were able to extract price and margin more easily. In short, it could be telling us something about the health of the real economy and sustainability of profits and margins.

  

  When we look at real returns using the price of gold, the performance results are weaker. We think this ratio captures much of what has been going on since the pandemic, including the intent of policy. First, notice that the real returns in gold were exceptionally strong coming out of the COVID lows in March 2020. This very much syncs with our view at the time that there would be significant operating leverage and real earnings growth as companies were able to extract pricing while simultaneously keeping costs under control during the lock downs. This was by far the best time to be fully invested (i.e., April 2020-November 2021) across a wide swath of the market. Since then, it’s been much more challenging and narrow as most companies have struggled to maintain the extraordinary margins and over-earning enjoyed during the pandemic. With the rally since last October due largely to multiple expansion, investors should be asking themselves if this rise in valuations is justified. We don’t think it is which is why we still have multiples coming down moderately in our base case view which assumes a soft/goldilocks landing for the economy and strong earnings growth. In the bear case context, we worry that if the soft landing outcome doesn’t happen, the multiple contraction will be swift as investors realize the performance dynamic in nominal returns is about to reverse. The breakdown in equity markets when shown in gold terms is an early warning sign that perhaps the late cycle environment may be at greater risk than appreciated.

  

  Yes, Mike, the risk is far “greater” than appreciated, but this is it for you: you have capitulated and you don’t get to say “told you so… in the small print” when stocks crash, which they will now that the last bears have thrown in the towel, just as we predicted back in February 2023 when we said that the “rally won’t end until Wilson and Marko turn bullish.”

  Rally won’t end until Wilson and Marko turn bullish

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 7, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  And yet, despite Wilson’s capitulation, the bulls – and the rally – are not dead just yet: that’s because only one half of our forecast has materialized. Yes, Wilson finally flipped, but in a desperate attempt to keep the rally going, even as his trading desk beats the bullish drum day after day, JPMorgan’s equivalent to Wilson, Marko Kolanovic, just published a note (also available to pro subs) – as if desperate to respond to the U-turn just taken by his Morgan Stanley colleague – in which he reiterated his bearish view, urging them not to buy stocks, while acknowledging that this negative outlook has hurt JPMorgan’s model portfolio allocation over the past year as global equity markets rose to record highs. As Bloomberg notes, “he cited a litany of reasons for maintaining his pessimistic position, including high valuations, the likelihood rates will remain restrictive for longer, elevated inflation readings, consumer stress, and geopolitical uncertainty.”

  Of course, none of these are in any way unknown or not priced in, so the Croat hasn’t said anything the market doesn’t already know, and if anything he merely continues to feed the extremely bullish JPM flow trading desk with what little sales JPM’s retail clients have left.

  “A negative stance on equities has hurt the performance of our multi-asset portfolio over the past year,” Marko acknowledged, while adding, “we do not see equities as attractive investments at the moment and we don’t see a reason to change our stance.”

  Kolanovic has the lowest year-end target for the S&P 500 at 4,200, implying a drop of more than 20% from Monday’s closing level.

  Yet what remains extremely laughable, if not outright criminal, is that at the same time that Kolanovic pounds the table on his ridiculous bearish view that has cost anyone who listened to him the 50% gain in the S&P since Oct 2022 when Marko turned bearish, the JPM trading desk could not be more bullish. Here is what JPM market intel trader Andrew Tyler wrote this morning in the bank’s daily note to a select number of institutional clients:

  Tactically Bullish. Still following the formula of (i) at/above average GDP growth plus (ii) positive earnings growth and a (iii) paused Fed translate to a bull market. When considering the macro component, there is a clear slowing of the economy, but I remain less concerned about that then some clients. Why? I think survey data and diffusion indices (ISM/PMI) are painting a picture that is more dire than hard data, earnings, and consumer behavior suggest. For example, ISM-Mfg has had one expansionary print since October 2022; historically, one would conclude that the US was in a recession but instead we saw real GDP print above the long-term trend in 6 of the last 7 quarters. More generally, I think we are still normalizing to pre-COVID times and not seeing a material deterioration from there. While there is a divergence in Consumer outcomes based on income, I think the aggregate consumer remains in good shape. (more in the full JPM note available to pro subs).

  So yes, the meltup will continue because while Wilson has had enough of being “contrarian”, Marko still hopes to find a few remaining holdouts who i) still bother to read what he writes and ii) will sell what risk assets they have to, who else, JPMorgan.

  More in the full note from Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 05/20/2024 – 20:00

• "You Stole From The Trump Organization, Correct?": Michael Cohen Hands Trump Prosecution Another Terrible Day
  “You Stole From The Trump Organization, Correct?”: Michael Cohen Hands Trump Prosecution Another Terrible Day

  Prosecutors in Donald Trump’s New York ‘hush money’ trial may have colluded with the Biden administration, but apparently none of the galaxy brains involved thought far enough to consider that their star witness, Michael Cohen, might cause their ‘case’ to implode.

  

  To wit: last week, Cohen was ‘dog walked‘ through several lies he’s told over the past few years.

  Today: Cohen admitted he stole from the Trump Organization.

  During cross-examination, Cohen admitted that he lied to former Trump Organization CFO Allen Weisselberg in 2017 about how much he needed to be reimbursed for a payment to RedFinch, a tech company that provided services to the Trump Org.

  While he asked for $50,000, Cohen only paid the company $20,000 – pocketing the difference.

  “You stole from the Trump Organization, correct?” defense attorney Todd Blanche asked.

  “Yes sir,” Cohen replied.

  This just got interesting: Michael Cohen is now admitting to stealing money from our company.

  — Eric Trump (@EricTrump) May 20, 2024

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  When Blanche then asked if he ever repaid the Trump Organization, or “Did you ever have to plead guilty to larceny?” Cohen replied, “No sir.”

  Nonetheless, Cohen asked for the 50K reimbursement from the Trump Organization.

  So you stole? Yes, Cohen admits.
  And you’ve never paid the Trump Organization back for the money you stole from it? No.
  You lied to Weisselberg about the amount owed to you for Redfinch? Yes

  — Anna Bower (@AnnaBower) May 20, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsCohen had asked for the $50,000 reimbursement alongside the $130,000 he paid personally to Stormy Daniels ahead of the 2016 election for a nondisclosure agreement.

  The former attorney then said he went to the bank and took out cash over several days, totaling about $20,000 before keeping it in a small brown paper bag. Then he gave it to the tech firm, he testified, adding he never gave the full $50,000 amount.

  The Trump Organization ultimately repaid Mr. Cohen $50,000 and then doubled that payment in a practice known as “grossing up” to cover taxes he’d incur by declaring the money as income rather than a tax-free reimbursement.

  Mr. Blanche noted that despite Mr. Cohen’s guilty pleas in 2018 to federal charges including a campaign finance violation for the hush money payment and unrelated tax evasion and bank fraud crimes, he’d never been charged with stealing from President Trump’s company. –Epoch Times

  They really aren’t sending their best…

  He’s not only a liar but a thief https://t.co/omudhKMfuY

  — Sara A. Carter (@SaraCarterDC) May 20, 2024

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  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 05/20/2024 – 20:00

• GOP Rep Slams Biden, Praises Trump, In Fiery Speech At Israel's Knesset
  GOP Rep Slams Biden, Praises Trump, In Fiery Speech At Israel’s Knesset

  Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

  Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) delivered a speech at the Israeli Knesset on Sunday where she slammed President Biden and called for unconditional military support for Israel to support the slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza.

  Stefanik and other Republicans have been furious with President Biden for putting a pause on one shipment of 2,000-pound bombs and threatening to withhold heavy weapons if Israel launched a major attack on “population centers” in Rafah, although he hasn’t taken any action as Israel continues to escalate in the city.

  

  “I have been clear at home and I will be clear here: There is no excuse for an American president to block aid to Israel — aid that was duly passed by the Congress — or to ease sanctions on Iran, paying a $6 billion ransom to the world’s leading state sponsor of terror, or to dither and hide while our friends fight for their lives,” Stefanik told the Knesset’s Caucus for Jewish and Pro-Israel Students on Campuses Around the World.

  She was referencing a prisoner swap deal the US made with Iran before October 7, under which Tehran was granted access to $6 billion of its own frozen funds that were transferred from South Korea to Qatar.

  Republicans claim that President Biden gave $6 billion to Iran, but it’s unclear if Tehran ever had access as the US and Qatar agreed to freeze them again in October 2023, not long after the deal was made.

  Stefanik declared that the US should provide Israel with “what it needs, when it needs it, without conditions to achieve total victory in the face of evil.” Despite the Republican outrage at President Biden, his administration has promised that Israel will get every penny of the $17 billion in new military aid that was recently authorized by Congress.

  Stefanik praised former President Donald Trump for his “historic support for Israeli independence and security.” Trump has been running on an extremely pro-Israel platform and claimed President Biden “abandoned” the country by issuing a warning about Rafah.

  “Today, I stand before you not just as a leader in the United States Congress, but as a lifelong admirer, supporter, and true friend of Israel and the Jewish people.

  You see I am lucky enough to have had the privilege of traveling here many times before, but I must confess that… pic.twitter.com/uvoMWOvFiu

  — Rep. Elise Stefanik (@RepStefanik) May 19, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Stefanik also slammed American college students who are protesting the unrelenting Israeli assault in Gaza, as she has been leading the charge in Congress in making accusations of antisemitism despite the fact that many Jewish students are participating in the protests.

  “I led the charge to expose this moral rot of antisemitism infecting our supposed most elite higher education institutions,” she said.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 05/20/2024 – 19:40

• Trade Protectionism In Renewables Could "Haunt" The Industry, Chinese Solar Execs Claim
  Trade Protectionism In Renewables Could “Haunt” The Industry, Chinese Solar Execs Claim

  Solar executives in China are railing the U.S. and Europe over trade protectionism, claiming that the West should instead “let the best technology win” in their respective markets.

  The Financial Times conducted an interview with Zhou Shijun, who leads global marketing for Arctech, who told them that the West ignoring the best technology would “come back to haunt” the renewable energy industry. 

  Shijun said that the introduction of trade barriers disproportionately impacted manufacturers of advanced technologies. He also said that companies with overcapacity issues were producing cheaper products. 

  “We do have concerns that geopolitical tensions are affecting our global business. What we’re doing right now is diversifying,” he said. He told the Financial Times that China would “always” be renewables’ biggest market. 

  FT reported that China dominates over 80% of global solar manufacturing, driven by significant state investment, competitive local markets, and growing domestic demand for green technology.

  

  Despite expectations of strong long-term demand, some Chinese solar manufacturers are increasingly exporting surplus supplies, leading to plummeting prices and complaints from the US and Europe about Beijing’s trade and industrial policies.

  Back in the U.S., President Joe Biden significantly raised tariffs on Chinese imports, including electric vehicles and solar cells, and ended a tariff exemption on certain solar panel units.

  The EU has been investigating China’s electric vehicle and renewable energy sectors and has reported on state-driven economic distortions in China.

  Meanwhile, Shanghai-listed Arctech, which has a market capitalization of $1.9bn, is expanding internationally, balancing local regulations and technology-sharing demands without compromising its intellectual property.

  Despite geopolitical tensions, the company views the adoption of large-scale renewable energy as a global trend that is both unstoppable and essential, according to FT. 

  The company operates three factories in China and is exploring new manufacturing sites closer to international markets, such as a new factory in Saudi Arabia, a research facility in Spain, and planned operations in Brazil.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 05/20/2024 – 19:20

• Educational Explosion: The Damage of Unnecessary Advanced Degrees
  Educational Explosion: The Damage of Unnecessary Advanced Degrees

  Via SchiffGold.com,

  The percentage of U.S. adults holding an advanced degree increased by over 3% from 2011-2021. This increase in education is assumed to have a crucial role in America’s increasing economic strength over that time period. The expertise gained from such degrees is supposed to be valuable enough to outweigh the time and money put into grad degrees, both from the student’s perspective and the perspective of the schools and institutions that so often fund graduate degrees. In developing countries, college graduation rates are positively correlated with economic success. This same effect is thought to translate to America’s current explosion of higher education. This belief is held so strongly that the federal government spent 311,000,000,000 dollars on higher education in 2021.

  However, a high advanced degree rate is much less strongly linked to national and individual success than universities would like you to think.

  

  The first driving factor for graduate school is supposed to be self-interest. Graduate school is portrayed as a process that directly increases income and happiness. For some degrees, there is certainly a large associated increase in income, but for 40 percent of grad degrees, there is either negative or zero ROI. Most degrees in the arts and humanities fail to even pay themselves off. The time spent working would typically be far more beneficial to students than their choice of grad degree. While some may gain enough from those degrees in personal satisfaction to make up for their choices, taxpayers must feel comfortable knowing they are funding life expeditions that do not even increase the capability to care for oneself. Public education funding is promoted on the premise that the country will be both personally and collectively better off. With many degrees, neither is the case, yet more and more money is always being funneled towards public education.

  While the negative ROI of some humanities degrees is expected, the corporate world has also created an inefficient monster through the promotion of MBA degrees. They are entry-level for many positions and they are recommended for workers who have stopped progressing and want promotions. Most MBA programs take 2-3 years to complete, so a significant break from working life is required. MBAs give very few specific skills and are more of a certifying apparatus that an employee is relatively intelligent and has enough resources to put some into an extra project. If they taught extremely useful skills their value would be obvious, but they appear to be more of a status symbol. Their relatively useless nature is evidenced by the fact that overall, MBAs have negative ROI. Most people who undertake MBAs are already high achievers, so the time spent getting an MBA could be used better by continuing the linear progress of their career.

  The explosion of advanced degrees reflects a greater rejection of community and trust. Advanced degrees serve as a very expensive safety blanket for whichever line of work they are oriented toward. For people seeking work, they demonstrate their capability in a manner not dependent on any sort of relationship or past professional experience. Employers do not need to investigate as rigorously if they can examine a prospective employee’s course load and institution of choice. Demonstrations of actual capability through doing good work take a backseat to the prestige of the name on a diploma. Real-world experience is not quantifiable, and environments and individuals have a rich interplay that is impossible for any recruiter to fully decode. Graduate degrees remove this ambiguity and rubber stamp someone’s capability in a particular career. Trust and community could help assuage the current overinvestment in graduate school by letting capable workers be recognized for their work by people who know them as more than productivity units. If workers who feel they are ready for the next step must take a break from working to get an advanced degree unless that degree is far more than a certifying stamp, they are harming themselves, their company, and their country. The benefits of transparency created by advanced degrees are far outweighed by the damage done by workers slowing down their careers simply to gather institutional confirmation that they are indeed good workers.

  Even if individuals or businesses were paying for their degrees, they would still be suspect, but government education makes it even clearer how detrimental they are. Government education spending is one of the largest contributors to the ever-growing national debt. There are some government expenditures that are generally deemed necessary, but the inefficiency of these degrees is so great that it can be seen across party lines.

  While they are necessary for some fields, the current ballooned state of advanced degrees is exceedingly harmful.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 05/20/2024 – 19:00

• Lockheed Running Out Of Parking Space For F-35s Pentagon Refuses To Accept
  Lockheed Running Out Of Parking Space For F-35s Pentagon Refuses To Accept

  Another day, another indication of what a spectacular, snakebit clusterf**k the F-35 program is. 

  The latest blotter entry comes to us from the US Government Accounting Office (GAO), via a new report pointedly titled “F-35 Joint Strike Fighter: Program Continues to Encounter Production Issues and Modernization Delays.”According to GAO, Lockheed Martin is running out of parking space for all the completed F-35s that the Pentagon refuses to accept. 

  These aren’t one-by-one rejects. Last summer, the DOD put a complete freeze on accepting the stealth fighters until Lockheed fixed huge hardware and software problems associated with “Technology Refresh-3” (TR-3), a $1.8 billion package intended to expand the planes’ capabilities.  

  

  The worst of the software glitches affect the F-35’s radar and electronic warfare systems, “with some test pilots reporting that they had to reboot their entire radar and electronic warfare systems mid-flight to get them back online,” says GAO. Gee, that sounds kinda bad.  

  As the TR-3 woes continue, the jets are stacking up at Lockheed’s facilities. Referencing a milestone that had already passed when it published its report, GAO wrote, “If TR-3 software is delayed past April 2024, Lockheed Martin is projected to exceed its maximum parking capacity and will need to develop a plan to accommodate more parked planes.” Deflecting concerns, in a statement last week, Lockheed said, “Specific details about parking will not be shared due to security considerations.” 

  Even while they’re parked at Lockheed, the jets present a liability risk to the government, thanks to contract provisions under which “the government assumes the risk of loss of aircraft ‘in the open,’ which is subject to the contractor’s share of loss and deductible under the contract,” GAO reports.  

  

  GAO says the software won’t be stabilized until “at least June 2024.” Whenever that day comes, it will only be the beginning of the end of this latest chapter, as GAO says eventual delivery of the backlogged jets will take a year.   

  In the meantime, silly taxpayer, don’t bother asking for a specific number of undelivered F-35s. In a lack of transparency that’s surely driven soley by a desire to shield the military-industrial complex from embarrassment, “DOD deemed reporting the specific quantity of aircraft to be unsuitable for public release,” said GAO.  

  The chairman of the House Armed Services tactical air and land forces subcommittee gave reporters a strong hint last week. “We know one thing for certain: it’s going to be at least over 100 aircraft stacked up on the tarmac,” said Rep. Rob Wittman (R-VA), according to Defense One. 

  Randolph White with an ALL TIME recreation of the F-35 crash pic.twitter.com/N3X08DTY4B

  — Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) September 20, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Already the most expensive weapons program in world history, the F-35 is on pace to cost Americans more than $2 trillion. The number is staggering enough on its own, but here’s some additional context via the National Interest:

  The fifth-generation F-22, not exactly a cheap program, cost taxpayers $66 billion. The entire U.S. annual defense budget is under $900 billion – nearly three times the defense budget of China, and ten times the defense budget of Russia. Yet, the F-35 program is pushing the $2 trillion mark.

  As the Epoch Times reported earlier this year, a different GAO report had even more unsettling information about the F-35s that are already in the Pentagon’s hands, indicating that “only 15 to 30 percent of F-35s may be capable of combat.”

  Lockheed Martin was awarded the F-35 contract 22 years ago — and, just coincidentally, Lockheed Martin shareholders have enjoyed 22 years of consecutive dividend increases. 

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 05/20/2024 – 18:40

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• A Former Ukrainian MP Blew The Whistle On Burisma's Connections To Terrorism
  A Former Ukrainian MP Blew The Whistle On Burisma’s Connections To Terrorism

  Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

  

  Former Ukrainian MP Andrey Derkach, who’s reviled by the Biden Administration for sharing dirt about Hunter Biden’s Burisma corruption scandal with Trump’s former lawyer Rudy Giuliani ahead of the 2020 elections, just gave a very important interview to Belarus’ BelTA where be blew the whistle even louder. According to him, the $6 million bribe that was paid in cash to shut down the investigation into the First Son’s scandal eventually found its way to the Ukrainian Armed Forces and its military-intelligence agency.

  Derkach claimed to have proof of the secret court order that divided these funds between those two, with the first investing its portion into building up their country’s drone army while the second financed terrorist attacks like the assassination of Darya Dugina, which he specifically mentioned in the interview. These allegations expand upon the ones that he shared earlier this year regarding the real-world impact of Hunter’s corruption scandal, which were analyzed here at the time.

  On the subject of Ukrainian assassinations and terrorism, Derkach said that the CIA and FBI actually condone these actions despite their public claims to the contrary, but he warned that this immoral policy will inevitably ricochet into the US itself. In particular, he cited FBI chief Christopher Wray’s testimony to Congress last April where he said that law enforcement officials fear that Crocus-like attacks are presently being plotted against their country.

  About that, it shouldn’t be forgotten that Ukraine’s military-intelligence service GUR is the chief suspect of Russia’s investigation into what became one of the worst terrorist attacks in its history, thus meaning that the portion of Burisma’s $6 million bribe that made its way into their hands likely financed part of it. In other words, the third-order effect of Hunter’s corruption scandal is that it was partially responsible for the brutal murder of innocent civilians halfway across the world some years later.

  That’s already scandalous enough, but Derkach shared even more details about the other indirect consequences of this cover-up into the First Son’s illicit activities, adding that some GUR-linked figures have been connected to the Western narrative about September 2022’s Nord Stream terrorist attack. He regards that story as a distraction from the US’ complicity, the view of which was elaborated upon here at the time that it entered the discourse, but lauded the CIA for the lengths it went to cover up its role.

  In his view, the CIA might very well have sent a highly trained Ukrainian diving team to the Baltic Sea exactly as the Western media reported, though only to plant fake bombs. In his words, “when a cover story is made, it is done quite well. We shouldn’t belittle the experience of the CIA or the experience of MI6 in preparing cover operations. They have quite a lot of experience in using proxies, in using cover stories to form a certain position in order to dodge responsibility. This is actually what happened.”

  Looking forward, Derkach expects Ukraine to attempt more terrorist attacks against Russia, which the US public is being preconditioned to accept via the CIA’s various leaks to the media. While many might lay the blame for all this on Zelensky’s lap, Derkach believes that it’s actually his Chief of Staff Andrey Yermak who’s running the show, albeit as a Western puppet. Nevertheless, he’s also convinced that the West is indeed preparing to formally replace Zelensky, but doesn’t yet know when or with whom.

  Altogether, the importance of Derkach’s interview is that he’s a former veteran Ukrainian politician who still retains a lot of sources inside the regime, having served in the Rada for a whopping 22 years from 1998-2020. While his homeland charged him with treason after he fled to Russia in early 2022, which followed the US charging him with election meddling on behalf of that country in September 2020, the argument can be made that these are politically driven attempts to intimidate a top whistleblower.

  The dirt that Derkach shared about Hunter’s Burisma corruption scandal, not to mention its newly revealed third-order effects that led to the brutal killing of civilians halfway across the world after part of his company’s bribe made its way into GUR’s hands, made him an enemy of the US Government. They and their Ukrainian proxies will therefore always try to discredit him with sensational allegations, but everyone would do well to listen to what he says and then make up their own minds about it.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 05/20/2024 – 02:00

• Iranian President Raisi, Foreign Minister Confirmed Dead In Helicopter Crash
  Iranian President Raisi, Foreign Minister Confirmed Dead In Helicopter Crash

  Update(0117ET): Iranian media has confirmed the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, 63, along with Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian in a helicopter crash on the way back from an official visit to Azerbaijan earlier Sunday.

  

  Reuters also confirmed Raisi’s death.

  “President Raisi, the foreign minister and all the passengers in the helicopter were killed in the crash,” a senior official told the outlet on condition of anonymity.

  *  *  *

  Summary: 

  • Iran’s state television has confirmed the death of President Ebrahim Raisi

  • An Iranian official tells Reuters: “President Raisi’s helicopter was completely burned in the crash… unfortunately, all passengers are feared dead.”

  • The helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, the foreign minister, and other officials went down in a remote northern region on the way back from an official visit to Azerbaijan earlier Sunday.

  • It was initially described as a “hard landing” but later was widely acknowledged as a “crash” – and as the hours pass the situation looks more grim.

  • Search and rescue has taken hours to reach the crash site, but little is known of the progress, amid bad weather conditions.

  • Foreign Ministry: “Despite adverse weather and environmental conditions, efforts by rescue teams to reach the accident site continue earnestly and with hope.”

  • Iranian population in state of ‘uncertainty’ as Supreme Leader asks for prayers for Raisi and the missing officials while assuring stability within government leadership.

  • Various countries have sent search and rescue help, including Russia and Turkey. Iran requested a night vision search and rescue helicopter from Turkey, according to Turkish disaster management agency AFAD.

  • Gulf countries express concern over crash, offer help in search.

  • ‘We hope for good news’ Iranian official tells Al Jazeera.

  • Iranian official told state TV that contact was made with one of the passengers and one of the crew members of the president’s helicopter on several occasions.

  • Press TV in follow-up cites an IRGC commander to say “Reports about contacts made by President’s companions after crash not factual.”

  • Conflicting reports: “Rescue crews haven’t yet located the crash site of the helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi,” the head of Iran’s Red Crescent Society, Pir-Hossein Koulivand, told Iranian state TV IRINN.

  • Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander-in-chief Hossein Salami has arrived at the general area of the crash

  • “We’re searching the area inch by inch, but the weather is very cold, foggy, and rainy. The rainfall is gradually turning into snowfall,” said the commander of the Iranian Army’s northwestern headquarters.

  • Heavy military presence reported in the capital of Tehran.

  • Thousands of Iranians pray for Raisi’s safe return after crash, but there are reports of others setting off fireworks.

  • Raisi had been in an aging Bell helicopter, with some reports saying it was over 40 years old.

  • US congressman gloats over Raisi crash: “Good riddance. Raisi was a murderous human rights abuser before and during his Presidency,” Rep Mike Waltz (R) wrote in a social media post.

  • Online speculation rampant over whether Israel or foreign intelligence could have been involved in a covert plot.

  • White House has been quiet but says it’s aware of the developing situation; President Biden was given a briefing. 

  Update(2325ET): What’s looking like initial confirmation of President Raisi’s death is emerging, though there has still not been an official statement from Iran’s top leadership:

  Iran’s state television says there is “no sign” of life among passengers of the helicopter which was carrying President Ebrahim Raisi and other officials.

  “Upon finding the helicopter, there was no sign of the helicopter passengers being alive as of yet,” state TV reports.

  An Iranian official tells Reuters: “President Raisi’s helicopter was completely burned in the crash… unfortunately, all passengers are feared dead.”

  NEWS

  The head of the Red Crescent has confirmed that the location of President Raisi’s helicopter has been found.

  Islamic Republic state media is publishing this photo and saying this is the crash site. pic.twitter.com/ZfIvdG1nMF

  — Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) May 20, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Some initial photos of the area where the helicopter went down have emerged, now some 15 hours after the crash was first reported.

  

  * * *

  Below: video showing the Bell helicopter which was transporting the president. It is said to be decades old, also as Iran’s aviation sector has languished under many years of US-led sanctions…

  This is reportedly the last video of the Iranian DICTATOR Ibrahim Raisi. pic.twitter.com/nlR6h3Ey6N

  — Hananya Naftali (@HananyaNaftali) May 19, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Update(1420ET): We are getting closer to learning the fate of Iran’s President Raisi and his foreign minister and other officials aboard the helicopter which went down hours ago:

  • Iran’s president Raisi’s crashed helicopter has been found by search teams – State TV — Reuters
  • Iranian official tells State TV: Contacts have been made with one of the passengers and one of the crew members of the president’s helicopter on several occasions — Reuters

  The Red Crescent organization is denying that the crash site has been found, amid contradictory and early reporting. So far Iranian officials are signaling that the president is alive, but the situation remains uncertain and fluid, following widespread speculation that he could be deceased. 

  Rescue teams arrived at a radius of 2 kilometers from the site of the Iranian president’s helicopter accident. #OOTT #Iran https://t.co/rw1MtOMjaS

  — Amena Bakr (@Amena__Bakr) May 19, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Iranian officials are seeking to assure the nation and the world that continuity of decision-making and government is stable and assured, amid reports of a heavy military presence on the streets of the capital Tehran.

  A Significant Deployment of Iranian Security and Military Personnel has been noted across the Capital of Tehran, with Members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed to be taking up Positions near several Government Buildings. pic.twitter.com/xP0YNxWJkk

  — OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) May 19, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “The Iranian president’s helicopter has been found” and contact has been made with the crew and “one of the passengers on board”. At this point it is night time, amid bad weather…

  The Iranian president’s helicopter has been found, state media has reported.

  It said Ebrahim Raisi’s chopper was discovered by search and rescue teams. #Iran
  pic.twitter.com/brzUMUyD1q

  — Sanam Jamali🇵🇰 (@sana_J2) May 19, 2024

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  * * *

  Update(1315ET): Several hours into a massive search and rescue operation and things are not looking good as Iranian officials have been issuing ‘thoughts and prayers’ statements amid reports that severe fog and bad weather have prevented a proper aerial search for the downed helicopter of President Raisi and those with him. Deep uncertainty looms as Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, was reported as holding an emergency meeting with the National Security Council in Tehran (follow-up reports from state sources have downplayed or contracted this, however). The Iranian population is on edge as speculation grows that the president is feared dead:

  “Nobody knows what exactly has happened and how the president and other local officials, because the situation is quite complicated,” he told Al Jazeera.

  “As time goes on, hopes are decreasing because the conditions are getting much worse and it’s getting darker,” Aslani, a senior research fellow at the Center for Middle East Strategic Studies, noted.

  “What is being felt here in Tehran [Iran’s capital] is mostly that feeling of uncertainty.”

  The first official statement of Iran’s Supreme Leader:

  We hope Almighty God will return the respected, esteemed President and his entourage to the arms of the nation.

  — Khamenei.ir (@khamenei_ir) May 19, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  At this moment, the president and his foreign minister, along with other officials are officially missing in a mountainous, forested area near the Iran-Azerbaijan border. Iran has mobilized the armed forces, including the IRGC, amid unconfirmed reports that even some of the search and rescue units are also possibly missing…

  Iran’s Khamenei reassures Iranians that country’s management will not be affected by the incident – IRNA — Reuters

  Three search and rescue members searching for Raisi’s helicopter are now also missing, sources say. https://t.co/O0luwyXq0T

  — The Intel Crab (@IntelCrab) May 19, 2024

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  Initial footage from the far northern border region with Azerbaijan shows fog so thick that it’s hard to see just dozens of meters ahead.

  One independent regional monitor has said: “This is hardly a surprise. First responders and rescue crews are being dispatched en-masse without proper briefing/delegation of command.”

  ⚡️Searches continue for the helicopter carrying the Iranian president. pic.twitter.com/S3RJeZTE83

  — War Monitor (@WarMonitors) May 19, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  More footage showing a difficult terrain and weather situation. Visibility at a distance is near zero…

  ISRAELI NEWS SAYS THE IRANIAN PRESIDENT IS DEAD pic.twitter.com/qmcYR2wWCm

  — The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) May 19, 2024

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  Speculation that Raisi could be dead has begun to hit foreign media, including in Israel:

  Iran official: Lives of president, FM ‘at risk’ after crash landing in wooded area

  

  There has also been speculation of possible foreign interference as the search and rescue extends into hours, involving a massive military and security response, with drones and other deployed assets over the region…

  If Raisi is confirmed dead and foul play was found to be involved (a strong possibility given the geopolitical context), this has the potential to turn into an archduke Ferdinand of the Middle East scenario, especially given Raisi was rumored to be Khameini’s successor. https://t.co/RIgNm0sYER

  — Arnaud Bertrand (@RnaudBertrand) May 19, 2024

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  STATEMENT FROM PRESIDENT OF AZERBAIJAN:

  “Today, after a friendly meeting with the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ebrahim Raisi, the news of the emergency landing of the helicopter carrying the Iranian high delegation caused great concern. Our prayers to Almighty God are with President Ebrahim Raisi and his accompanying delegation. As a neighbor, friend and brother country, the Republic of Azerbaijan is ready to provide all kinds of support.”

  The official Instagram of the Iranian president is calling on all citizens to pray for his safety.

  BREAKING: UPDATE ON PRESIDENT RAISI RESCUE:

  The presence of 3 ministers at the accident site for the president’s helicopter

  The Ministers of Oil, Roads, Urban Development, and Energy are now present at the accident site for the President’s helicopter, and the Minister of… pic.twitter.com/xLrtHl55h5

  — Sulaiman Ahmed (@ShaykhSulaiman) May 19, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  State media also appears to be fearing the worst, airing images like the following showing Raisi on a prior religious pilgrimage:

  Iranian TV now airs “emotional” footage of President Raisi.

  The weather conditions at the crash site are so bad that 3 of Iranian rescuers are also missing now. pic.twitter.com/idOcneh0YE

  — Middle East Observer (@byz_observer) May 19, 2024

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  President Biden has been briefed, the White House said in a statement:

  US President Joe Biden was briefed on the helicopter crash involving Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, according to the White House.

  Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, accompanying Biden aboard Air Force One on Sunday, offered no other details.

  * * *

  There are breaking reports that Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has been in a helicopter crash in a remote northern area of the country and that rescuers are trying to reach him and his crew. 

  State media is currently calling it a “hard landing” – suggesting that the president is alive and well, however no other details on the precise nature of the helicopter incident have been revealed. According to the NYT, 16 rescue teams have been dispatched to locate the helicopter, however inclement weather are hampering the effort, according to the reports. The teams have failed to locate the crash after nearly five hours. According to the latest via Al Jazeera citing state media:

  • Adverse weather conditions, including heavy fog, are hampering rescue efforts and the helicopter is still missing.
  • Iran’s Fars News Agency calls on Iranians to pray for President Raisi.

  

  What is known is that Raisi’s helicopter went down while in the country’s East Azerbaijan province and that it happened near the border city of Jolfa, and up to three helicopters total made up the air convoy at the time.

  “Given the complexities of the region, connection has been difficult, and we are hoping that the rescue teams reach the helicopter and can give us more information,” said Iran’s interior minister, Ahmad Vahidi on state television.

  State-run IRNA news agency indicated that among the officials aboard the aircraft included Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian.

  The Associated Press has quoted at least one Iranian official to say it was a “crash” and that there’s an urgent rescue mission currently underway in a forested area:

  One local government official used the word “crash” to describe the incident, but he acknowledged to an Iranian newspaper that he had yet to reach the site himself.

  Rescuers were attempting to reach the site, state TV said, but had been hampered by poor weather conditions. There had been heavy rain and fog reported with some wind. IRNA called the area a “forest.”

  It appears Raisi was traveling in connection with a trip to Azerbaijan earlier in the day, where he had overseen the inauguration of a dam with Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev this morning. Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency has stated on X Sunday:

  “Some of the president’s companions on this helicopter were able to communicate with Central Headquarters, raising hopes that the incident could have ended without casualties.”

  Iran President Raisi was flying from a meeting with Ilham Aliyev in Tehran when the incident occurred.

  Video footage shows the head of the Islamic Republic on board shortly before the helicopter made a hard landing in mountainous terrain due to foggy conditions. pic.twitter.com/ofWEP0cL2D

  — Russian Market (@runews) May 19, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Thus far initial reports indicate that Raisi has survived the incident, but again the ‘hard landing’ appears to be significant – and possibly far worse – than what state media is letting on.

  The fact that a rescue team has yet to even reach the location of the downed helicopter means this could be a potential casualty situation involving top officials.

  Iranian Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi confirms: Rescue teams have not yet arrived at the scene of the helicopter accident due to bad weather and fog.

  President Raisi’s helicopter made a hard landing. pic.twitter.com/WRelcekVNy

  — Clash Report (@clashreport) May 19, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Almost immediately, a number of online commenters raised the question of potential foreign involvement… “Israel?” some asked. However, it’s also well understood that helicopters become more prone to incidents in foggy or inclement weather, and over mountainous difficult terrain. Iran’s aviation industry has also long languished under Washington-led sanctions.

  ⚡️The four Iranian officials who were in the helicopter according to the reports:
  Ibrahim Raisi – President of Iran
  Hussein Amir Abdel-Lahyan – Minister of Foreign Affairs (bottom left)
  Malek Rahmati – Governor of East Azerbaijan Province (below right)
  Muhammad Ali al-Hashem -… pic.twitter.com/XNZjEUQ2Nf

  — War Monitor (@WarMonitors) May 19, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  developing…

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 05/20/2024 – 01:17

• Is America Losing?
  Is America Losing?

  Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via VonGreyerz.gold,

  Below, we soberly assess the lessons of history and math against the current realities of a debt-defined America to ask and answer a painful yet critical question: Is America losing?

  The End of History and the Last Man

  In 1992, while I was still an undergrad with a seemingly endless optimism in life in general and the American Dream in particular, the American political scientist, Francis Fukuyama, published a much-discussed book entitled, The End of History and the Last Man.

  Released in the wake of the wall coming down in Berlin and a backdrop of continually low rates and rising US markets, this best-selling and optimistic work captured the Western mindset with obvious pride.

  With its central theme (supported by an overt Hegelian and dialectal framework) of capitalism and liberal democracy’s penultimate and victorious evolution (Aufhebung moment) beyond the Soviet dark ages of a debt-soaked and centralization/autocratic communism, the famous book made headline sense in this Zeitgeist of American exceptionalism.

  But even then, amidst all the evidence of Soviet failures (from extended wars, currency destruction, unpayable debts and a clearly dishonest media and police-state leadership), my already history-conscious (and fancy-school) mind could not help but wonder out loud if this book’s optimistic conclusion of the West’s ideological and evolutional end-game was not otherwise a bit, well: naïve.

  Had the West truly reached a victorious “end of history” moment?

  Pride & An Insult to History?

  In fact, and as anyone who truly understands history should know then as now, history is replete with rhyming turning points, but never a victorious and eternal “end-game.”

  Stated more simply, the famous book, which made so much sense at that particular moment in time, seemed to me even in 1992 as a classic example of “hubris comes before the fall.”

  In other words, it may have been a bit too soon to declare victory for liberal democracy and capitalism, as these fine systems require fine leadership and even finer principles to survive history’s forward flow.

  Today’s History…

  Fast-forward many decades (grey hairs, advanced degrees and sore muscles) later, and it would seem that my young skepticism (and historical respect) was well-placed.

  The evidence around us now suggests that the “victorious” capitalism Fukuyama boasted of in 1992 died long ago, replaced in the interim years by obvious and mathematically-corroborated examples of unprecedented wealth inequality and modern feudalism.

  Furthermore, if one were to contrast the principles of America’s founding fathers as evidenced by their first 10 Amendments to the US Constitution (remember our Bill of Rights?) to the current and obvious destruction of the same in what is now a far more centralized, post-9-11 “Patriot Act” USA, the evidence of democracy’s crumbling façade is literally all around us.

  In other words, perhaps Fukuyama got a little too ahead of himself.

  Or more to the point, perhaps he was dead wrong about the final “victory” of genuine US capitalism and an actual, living/breathing liberal democracy?

  Is the USA the Old USSR?

  In fact, and with a humble nod to modesty, blunt-speak, current events, simple math and almost tragic irony, the actual evidence of history since 1992 suggests that today’s Divided States of America (DSA) (and Pravda-like media) appears to look far more like the defeated USSR than the victor presented by Mr. Fukuyama…

  Such dramatic statements, of course, mean nothing without facts, and we all deserve a careful use of the same if we seek to replace emotion with data and hence see, argue and prepare ourselves politically and financially with more clarity.

  Facts Are Stubborn Things

  Toward this end, I am once again grateful for the facts and figures which Luke Gromen provides in supporting the otherwise “sensational” conclusion that America may have won the “cold battle” with the USSR, but it is now losing a “cold war” with the Russians and Chinese.

  Really?

  C’mon.

  Really?

  Again, let’s look at the facts. Let’s look at the numbers. Let’s look at current events, and let’s look at history, which is anything but at an “end.”

  For those whose respect for history goes beyond a twitter-level attention span or the assistance of mainstream media Ken and Barbies (from CNN to The View), none of whom understand anything of history, you will recall that Regan’s successful war against the USSR was won by bankrupting the Soviets.

  But as Gromen so eloquently reminds us, “nobody seems to notice that is EXACTLY what the Russians and Chinese are doing to us now.”

  This is not fable but fact, and I warned of this in How the West was Lost the moment the US weaponized the USD in 2022. This desperately myopic (i.e., stupid) policy gave a very patient and history-savvy Russia and China just the opportunity they have been waiting for to turn the tables on the DSA.

  History’s Fatal Debt Trap Lesson

  As I also recently wrote, with the insights of both Niel Ferguson and Luke Gromen, you know (and history confirms) a nation (or empire) is ALWAYS doomed the moment its debt expenses (in interest terms alone) exceed its defense spending.

  And as of this writing, the DSA’s gross interest is 40% higher than its military spending.

  Nor are we, the Russians, the Chinese or even a select minority of informed Americans alone in this knowledge of the DSA’s fatal debt trap.

  No Hiding the Obvious

  The current turning point in American debt is now increasingly and more globally understood in what Ben Hunt calls “the Common Knowledge Game.”

  Stated more simply, and as evidenced by the now undeniable move away from the US IOU and USD by an ever-increasing (and ever de-Dollarizing) BRICS+ membership roster, the world is catching on to the blunt fact that the American empire (of citizen lions led by political donkeys) is spending fatally more than it earns.

  What is far more sickening, however, is that Uncle Sam is then paying its IOUs with debased Dollars literally mouse-clicked into existence at the not-so “federal” and not-so “reserved” Federal Reserve.

  This desperate reality, and completely fantasy-based monetary “solution,” has resulted in an empirically bankrupt nation who quantifiably spends more on entitlements (cashed out by 2030), sovereign IOUs and warfare than it does on transportation, agriculture, veteran benefits and citizen education (our apologies to Thomas Jefferson).

  See for yourself:

  

  Returning from simple math to otherwise forgotten (or now increasingly “cancelled) history, it becomes harder to deny Gromen’s observation “that the US appears to be reprising the role of the USSR this time, with a heavy debt load, uncompetitive and hollowed-out industrial base, reliant on a Cold War adversary for imported manufactured goods, and needing ever-higher oil prices in order to keep its oil production from falling.”

  Democracy’s Suicide?

  In other words, and in the many years since Fukuyama declared victory in 1992, the interim sins/errors of increasingly suicidal (or grotesquely negligent/stupid) US military, financial and foreign policies have irrevocably placed the DSA into a defeated decline rather than victorious “End of History.”

  This reality, of course, gives me no pleasure to share, as I was, am and will always remain a patriotic American—or at least patriotic to the ideals for which America originally stood.

  But as I’ve said many times, today’s DSA is almost unrecognizable to the American I was when Fukuyama’s book of hubris was released over three decades ago.

  As our second US President, John Adams, warned his wife Abigail: “Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did commit suicide.”

  Again, this is history, and it appears to be a history that Fukuyama misunderstood in 1992, when he apparently thought it had reached its happy “end.”

  The Past Informs the Future

  Looking forward, I/we must be equally capable of looking backward.

  History has far more to teach us than the stump-speeches (or pathetic cue cards) of current political opportunists (puppets?) who, with very few exceptions, care far more about preserving their power (via coalitions, the legalized bribery of K-Street lobbyists, the promulgation of mis-information and the deliberate omission of mal-information) than serving their public.

  The Sad History of Currency Debasement

  History also warns/teaches that the leadership of all debt-soaked and failing regimes will buy time saving their “systems” (and covering their @$$’s) by debasing their currencies to monetize their debts.

  Folks, this is true throughout history, and WITHOUT EXCEPTION.

  Sadly, the DSA and its hitherto “exceptionalism” is no exception to this otherwise ignored historical lesson.

  Toward this end, and as Egon and I have argued for years, the DSA will thus pretend to “fight inflation” while simultaneously seeking inflation, as all debt-strapped (and hence failed) regimes need inflation rates to exceed interest rates (as measured by the yield on the US10Y UST) in what the fancy lads call “negative real rates.”

  The Sad History of Dishonesty

  Inflation, however, is not only politically embarrassing, but stone-cold proof of failed monetary and fiscal leadership.

  To get around this embarrassment, politicos from the Fed and the White House to the so-called House of Representatives (and the Don-Lemonish/Chris Quomo/ 1st Amendment-insulting/hit-driven legacy media which supports them) will do what most children do when faced with making an error, that is: Lie.

  And in this case: Lie about inflation data.

  Of course, a nation that lies to its people is not best suited for leading its people.

  As Hemingway warned, and as I often repeat, those at fault will point the fingers of blame to others (from Eastern bad guys, and man-made viruses to political fear campaigns on everything from global warming, white nationalism or green men from Mars); or worse, leaders will distract their constituents in perpetual wars.

  

  Sound familiar?

  In the interim, those “people” will continually and increasingly suffer from the sins of their childish leadership under the crippling yet invisible tax of the debased purchasing power of their so-called “money.”

  This too, is nothing new to those who track history…

  Golden Solutions?

  Gold, of course, cannot and will not solve for all of the myriad and “human, all too human” failures of national leadership and the monetary, social and centralized disfunctions which ALWAYS follow in the wake of too much debt.

  But as history also confirms (and equally without exception), each of us can at least protect the purchasing power of our wealth by measuring that wealth in ounces and grams rather than openly dying paper/fiat money.

  This is not a biased argument. This is not a “gold bug” argument.

  It is far more simply an historical argument, which further explains why governments don’t want you to understand the history of money nor the history of gold.

  

  In fact, even Fukuyama’s now embarrassing book ignores this simple lesson of gold lasting and paper money dying, which only adds to my opening observation that history never “ends” it simply teaches and protects the informed.

  The same is true of physical gold.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 05/19/2024 – 23:55

• Visualizing America's Average Retirement Savings, By Age
  Visualizing America’s Average Retirement Savings, By Age

  Painting a concerning picture, the median retirement savings for Americans stands at a mere $87,000, a figure far lower than what is needed for a comfortable nest egg.

  This savings gap—the amount people have actually saved versus what they believe is needed for retirement—is significantly rising. In fact, a recent survey from Northwestern Mutual reveals that $1.46 million is the ideal savings target for retirement, up from $1.27 million last year.

  This graphic, via Visual Capitalist’s Niccolo Conte, shows the retirement savings that Americans currently hold, based on data from the Federal Reserve’s 2022 Survey of Consumer Finances.

  

  Savings for Retirement Fall Short

  Below, we show the average and median retirement savings in the U.S. by age group:

  

  For people aged 35 and under, the median savings were $18,880, while this amount increased to $200,000 for those aged 65 to 74.

  At current rates, this means that older generations are living on a mere $10,000 per year in retirement based on these savings alone. Given this shortfall, Americans will need to increasingly rely on Social Security benefits to make ends meet. In fact, it’s estimated that state and federal governments will need $1.4 trillion for public assistance costs by 2040.

  One reason behind declining retirement savings is the steep drop in employment-sponsored pension plans over the last several decades. As of 2022, there was $37.8 trillion held in U.S. pension plans and Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs). Of these, employment-sponsored plans comprised a substantial 70% share of these assets.

  However, for many Americans without employer-sponsored plans, saving for retirement has become an increasingly uphill battle. In fact, a separate survey shows that just 58% of Americans aged 55 to 64 have retirement accounts, underscoring the growing challenges faced in preparing for retirement.

  Among the most common retirement planning mistakes are underestimating the impact of inflation, one’s life expectancy, and healthcare costs. To combat this problem, 12 states have adopted automated retirement savings accounts for private employees. These programs, impacting up to 56 million people, enroll employees automatically with the choice to opt out, to help encourage Americans to save for the future.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 05/19/2024 – 23:20

• Morgan Stanley On Japan In Rome
  Morgan Stanley On Japan In Rome

  By Seth Carpenter, Managing Director and Chief Global Economist at Morgan Stanley, and Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy at Morgan Stanley

  Japan in Rome

  Last month at our annual Fixed Income CIO conference, one of the liveliest sessions was on Japan’s reflation. The BoJ ending negative rates and normalizing policy for the first time in eight years marked the end of decades of a deflationary equilibrium. Nominal GDP growth hit 5.7%Y in 2023, and our Japan team forecasts that Japan’s nominal GDP growth will remain above 3%Y across our forecast horizon. Nominal growth tends to translate into earnings, and so it is no surprise that our equity strategy team remains bullish, with a target for the TOPIX of 2,800.

  

  Our baseline forecast is that the BoJ hikes rates in July this year, a view that has been reinforced by recent communications from Governor Ueda. Because we think inflation will stabilize and drift lower, we look for only one more hike after that, in 1Q25. We think the risks are to the upside for policy, if inflation doesn’t drift down the way we expect.

  The falling value of the yen prompted intense market focus and ultimately intervention by the MoF. Since the exchange rate directly affects import prices (after all, 90% of energy is imported in Japan), the risks to inflation cannot be ignored when the currency moves. Our baseline view is that the yen will appreciate through the end of this year and into next year, partly based on our view that the Fed will cut rates by 75bp this year and 100bp next year. If we are wrong, and the yen continues to weaken, further intervention seems plausible and would also increase the risks of more hikes by the BoJ than in our baseline forecast.

  Of course, the exchange rate is only one factor. Governor Ueda also emphasized a so-called “second force” driving inflation, the virtuous cycle between wages and prices. We remain convinced that the cycle is intact, even if the empirical outcome remains a question. We are in the middle of a fundamental shift in equilibria. The labor market is tight and tightening; the spring wage negotiations resulted in a substantial 5.2% rise, including a base wage increase of 3.6%. Domestic and foreign demand remain strong.

  The strong macro backdrop and the BoJ’s shift to a hiking campaign have coincided with a sell-off in sovereign curves around the world. The 10-year JGB almost touched 1% in November, and after retracing it is now looking to test similar highs. Our baseline is that the yield returns to 1% by the end of this year. However, our bear case has a more notable sell-off, possibly to as high as 1.25%, by year-end, if inflation dynamics point to more persistence, building in a steeper curve along with more rate hikes.

  While the forecast may not be crystal clear – forecasting is hard, as the saying goes, especially about the future – that fact that Japan is undergoing a fundamental shift should now be clear. Before Covid, it would have strained credulity to say that Japan would be a focus of macro investors around the world. The fact that it was one of the most heated discussions at our conference in Rome shows just how much the world has changed. When in Rome, do as the Romans do.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 05/19/2024 – 22:45

• Comparing New And Current US Tariffs On Chinese Imports
  Comparing New And Current US Tariffs On Chinese Imports

  This week, the U.S. introduced a new series of tariff increases on Chinese imports, amounting to over $18 billion worth of goods.

  In the announcement, President Biden said they are aiming to “counter China’s unfair trade practices” by targeting specific sectors where the U.S. is boosting domestic production.

  This graphic, via Visual Capitalist’s Kayla Zhu, shows the new and current U.S. tariff rates set on a variety of Chinese imports.

  Tariff rates and implementation years for the new rates come from The White House’s May 14 press release announcing the new tariff rate increases. Implementation years for the current rates comes from the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) and United States International Trade Commission (USITC).

  

  Tariff Raises on China Hit EV and Medical Industries

  Below, we show the current and new tariff rates, as well as the implementation years for both, for a range of Chinese imports, as of May 14, 2024.

  

  †Current rate for steel and aluminium products and personal protective equipment ranges from 0 to 7.5%.

  *Tariffs implemented in 2019 started at 15% and were reduced to 7.5% in January 2020

  The U.S. directed many of its new tariff increases on the Chinese EV industry, targeting imports such as semiconductors, lithium-ion batteries, and other battery parts.

  Notably, tariffs on electric vehicles from China were bumped to 100% and new tariffs on certain critical minerals, which are essential for manufacturing battery parts and semiconductors, were introduced.

  Medical-related products, such as medical and surgical gloves and certain personal protective equipment like face masks were also impacted by the new tariff increases. Some of these items were previously granted exclusions from Section 301 tariffs due to COVID-19.

  Syringes and needles, which were previously not subjected to any tariffs, were also hit with a new 50% tariff.

  Section 301 Tariffs Still Going Strong

  Tariffs are taxes imposed by a country on imported goods, increasing their price to protect domestic industries, regulate trade, or generate revenue for the government.

  These new tariff actions were introduced under Section 301, a provision that allows the U.S. government to investigate and respond to unfair trade practices by foreign countries.

  Section 301 tariffs on Chinese goods were first introduced by former President Donald Trump in 2018, which sparked retaliatory tariffs on China and set off a years-long trade war between the two countries.

  Currently, Section 301 tariffs apply to over $300 billion worth of Chinese imports.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 05/19/2024 – 22:10

• Unpacking Ray Dalio's Alarmist Prediction Of Civil War
  Unpacking Ray Dalio’s Alarmist Prediction Of Civil War

  Authored by Stephen Soukup via American Greatness,

  The other day, Ray Dalio, the billionaire investor and founder of Bridgewater Associates, told The Financial Times that he sees the risk of a second American civil war as “growing” and places the odds of such a war at “35-40 percent.” According to FT, Dalio’s “research” has led him to conclude that “we are now on the brink,” although we “don’t yet know if we will cross over into much more turbulent times.”

  

  On the one hand, it’s important to remember that Dalio is nearly universally known as a world-class crank. He’s made a lot of money in the markets and has long been considered an astute investor, but he has also long been considered an odd duck, to put it gently. Additionally, the idea that this proclamation and setting of odds are based on “research” is silly. There are no variables one can examine and analyze and then use to calculate an objective estimate of a civil war’s occurrence. To pretend otherwise is… well… perfectly Dalio-esque.

  On the other hand, Dalio is hardly alone in his belief that tough times are imminent. Virtually the entirety of the ruling class seems to believe that the zeitgeist of the moment is characterized by anger, hatred, and the expectation of confrontation between political adversaries. Hollywood is busy making movies about a potential Civil War. Political magazines are warning that totalitarianism looms just over the electoral horizon. And even the President of the United States is releasing videos that sound more like pre-fight smack talk than political posturing. In short, Ray Dalio is hardly the first major public figure to express his fear/hope that the nation is “on the brink.”

  Ironically, the part of this story Dalio and his fellow elites are missing is that in which they’re the cause of the turmoil that currently plagues the United States, or, at the very least, are exacerbating that turmoil and aggravating the people’s frustrations.

  Consider, for example, the description Dalio gives of one of the primary causes of this possible civil war:

  This election would be a test of ‘can democracy work well? Will there be an acceptance of the rules and an ability to work well under those rules?’ he said.

  [Republican candidate Donald] Trump will follow more rightist, nationalistic, isolationist, protectionist, non-regulatory policies — and more aggressive policies to fight enemies internally and externally, including political enemies. [President Joe] Biden, and even more so the Democratic party without Biden, will be more the opposite….

  Ah, I see. It’s all Donald Trump’s fault. Strangely, Dalio doesn’t address the almost inarguable fact that Donald Trump is a symptom of this nation’s political dysfunction rather than the cause of it. Whatever one thinks of Trump—good, bad, indifferent—he and his political movement did not emerge fully formed, as if Athena springing forth from the forehead of Zeus. They were the result of decades of political malpractice by both parties, decades of betrayal and decades of self-dealing.

  Likewise, Donald Trump remains popular today because both parties, as a whole, remain indifferent to the plight of the country class and are concerned almost exclusively with the needs and wants of Washington and its allies. Billionaire Ray Dalio may think that the people are revolting, but that is, in large part, the fault of the Washington uni-party and its disregard for the people’s interests.

  Dalio also describes the form that the civil war he so fears might take: “The civil war Dalio imagines was not necessarily one in which people ‘grab guns and start shooting’, although such a scenario was possible, he said.” Rather, the civil war Dalio envisions would involve “people mov[ing] to different states that are more aligned with what they want and they don’t follow the decisions of federal authorities of the opposite political persuasion.”

  To be clear, I don’t think that consistently disregarding the actions and decisions of the federal government is something that we, as a nation, should encourage, much less tolerate. At the same time, there’s a term for what Dalio describes. It’s called “federalism,” and it was precisely what the Founding Fathers had in mind almost 250 years ago.

  It is worth remembering here that when the Founders debated the Constitution, two primary factions fought over the particulars. The Federalists—James Madsion, Alexander Hamilton, and John Jay, in particular—sat on one side of the question, while the anti-federalists—Patrick Henry, James Monroe, Samuel Adams, George Mason, and a host of others—sat on the other. The anti-federalists were opposed to the Constitution not because they disapproved of its weak federal government and demanded something stronger, something more like what we have today, but because they disapproved of a federal government at all. In other words, the vision Dalio now derides and implies is the precursor to civil war was, in fact, the most radically centralized of the forms of government considered by the Founders.

  Dalio’s problem with such a vision of government is undoubtedly closely akin to the problem that much of the ruling class today has with that vision: he wants the people to think and behave as he wants them to, in alignment with his “values.” He finds their insistence on thinking for themselves and behaving accordingly irritating and inefficient.

  Roughly two years ago, Victor Davis Hanson penned an essay accusing factions of “the left” of engaging in what he called “civil war porn.” Some on the left fantasized, he argued, about how the country’s majority white right-wing rabble were intent on harming minorities, destroying democracy, and engaging in violence against their enemies. Such fantasies gave them the opportunity to engage in moral grandstanding. They saw themselves as the heroes of the story, noble warriors who would sacrifice everything to save all that is right and good in the world.

  Today, that “civil war porn” is the purview of much of the ruling class, people like Ray Dalio, who cosplay as the self-righteously indignant and “rational” grown-ups in the room. They warn that the evil ones, the naughty children, are plotting against the nation, planning a fascist takeover of the government or even secession from the Union.

  Again, the irony is that in doing so, in prattling on about the risks that the great unwashed masses pose to “Our Democracy™,” the Ray Dalios of the world make it all the more likely.

  Every time they open their mouths on the subject, they make the idea of a political separation that would liberate the masses from those who deride and hate them sound far more agreeable.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 05/19/2024 – 21:35

• These Are The 10 US States With The Lowest Real GDP Growth
  These Are The 10 US States With The Lowest Real GDP Growth

  While the U.S. economy defied expectations in 2023, posting 2.5% in real GDP growth, several states lagged behind.

  Last year, oil-producing states led the pack in terms of real GDP growth across America, while the lowest growth was seen in states that were more sensitive to the impact of high interest rates, particularly due to slowdowns in the manufacturing and finance sectors.

  In the following graphic, Visual Capitalist’s Niccolo Conte shows the 10 states with the least robust real GDP growth in 2023, based on data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

  

  Weakest State Economies in 2023

  Below, we show the states with the slowest economic activity in inflation-adjusted terms, using chained 2017 dollars:

  

  Delaware witnessed the slowest growth in the country, with real GDP growth of -1.2% over the year as a sluggish finance and insurance sector dampened the state’s economy.

  Like Delaware, the Midwestern state of Wisconsin also experienced declines across the finance and insurance sector, in addition to steep drops in the agriculture and manufacturing industries.

  America’s third-biggest economy, New York, grew just 0.7% in 2023, falling far below the U.S. average. High interest rates took a toll on key sectors, with notable slowdowns in the construction and manufacturing sectors. In addition, falling home prices and a weaker job market contributed to slower economic growth.

  Meanwhile, Georgia experienced the fifth-lowest real GDP growth rate. In March 2024, Rivian paused plans to build a $5 billion EV factory in Georgia, which was set to be one of the biggest economic development initiatives in the state in history.

  These delays are likely to exacerbate setbacks for the state, however, both Kia and Hyundai have made significant investments in the EV industry, which could help boost Georgia’s manufacturing sector looking ahead.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 05/19/2024 – 21:00

• A Global Censorship Prison Built By The Women Of The CIA
  A Global Censorship Prison Built By The Women Of The CIA

  Authored by Elizabeth Nickson via ‘Welcome to Absurdistan’ substack,

  The polite world was fascinated last month when long-time NPR editor Uri Berliner confessed to the Stalinist suicide pact the public broadcaster, like all public broadcasters, seems to be on. Formerly it was a place of differing views, he claimed, but now it has sold as truth some genuine falsehoods like, for instance, the Russia hoax, after which it covered up the Hunter Biden laptop. And let’s not forget our censor-like behaviour regarding Covid and the vaccine. NPR bleated that they were still diverse in political opinion, but researchers found that all 87 reporters at NPR were Democrats. Berliner was immediately put on leave and a few days later resigned, no doubt under pressure.

  

  Even more interesting was the reveal of the genesis of NPR’s new CEO, Katherine Maher, a 41-year-old with a distinctly odd CV. Maher had put in stints at a CIA cutout, the National Democratic Institute, and trotted onto the World Bank, UNICEF, the Council on Foreign Relations, the Center for Technology and Democracy, the Digital Public Library of America, and finally the famous disinfo site Wikipedia. That same week, Tunisia accused her of working for the CIA during the so-called Arab Spring. And, of course, she is a WEF young global leader.

  She was marched out for a talk at the Carnegie Endowment where she was prayerfully interviewed and spouted mediatized language so anodyne, so meaningless, yet so filled with nods to her base the AWFULS (affluent white female urban liberals) one was amazed that she was able to get away with it. There was no acknowledgement that the criticism by this award-winning reporter/editor/producer, who had spent his life at NPR had any merit whatsoever, and in fact that he was wrong on every count. That this was a flagrant lie didn’t even ruffle her artfully disarranged short blonde hair.

  Christopher Rufo did an intensive investigation of her career in City Journal. It is an instructive read and illustrative of a lot of peculiar yet stellar careers of American women. Working for Big Daddy is apparently something these ghastly creatures value. I strongly suggest reading Rufo’s piece linked here. It’s a riot of spooky confluences.

  

  Intelligence has been embedded in media forever and a day. During my time at Time Magazine in London, the bureau chief, deputy bureau chief and no doubt the “war and diplomacy” correspondent all filed to Langley and each of them cruised social London ceaselessly for information. Tucker Carlson asserted on his interview with Aaron Rogers this week that intelligence operatives were laced through DC media and in fact, Mr. Watergate, Bob Woodward himself, had been naval intelligence a scant year before he cropped up at the Washington Post as ‘an intrepid fighter for the truth and freedom no matter where it led.’  Watergate, of course, was yet another operation to bring down another inconvenient President; at this juncture, unless you are being puppeted by the CIA, you don’t get to stay in power. Refuse and bang bang or end up in court on insultingly stupid charges. As Carlson pointed out, all congressmen and senators are terrified by the security state, even and especially the ones on the intelligence committee who are supposed to be controlling them. They can install child porn on your laptop and you don’t even know it’s there until you are raided, said Carlson. The security state is that unethical, that power mad.

  Now, it’s global. And feminine. Where is Norman Mailer when you need him?

  At the same time, at the same time, Freddie Sayers, the editor-in-chief of Unherd, testified in Parliament on the Global Disinformation Index which had choked Unherd’s ability to grow. Unherd had hired three advertising firms who were, one after the other, unable to place ads. The third sourced the problem to the Index, which had deemed his interviews with journalist Katherine Stock about the problems faced by young people transitioning their sex, had made him persona non grata for all advertising agencies across the world. Eerily, that same week, Katherine Stock was awarded a high honorable mention in the National Press Awards for her work.

  Here is Clare Melford, the fetching chief of the Global Disinformation Index, a woman seemingly bent on sterilizing confused children, Yet another non-profit authoritarian working for a mysterious Big Daddy. Who the hell trained her?

  

  On Tuesday this week, out pops Europe’s headmistress, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Politico.eu, complaining about “Russia” and “right-wingers” sowing distrust of Europe’s election processes. She is, she says, launching a new war on Disinformation. Most importantly, no more reporting on migrant assaults. This seems to be their new crusade. Please note the halo over her Christed head. Honestly, they are shameless, vain, silly creatures with limited bandwidth. Other than obedience to some grim reaper.

  

  Said Politico:

  “She promised to set up “a European Democracy Shield,” if reelected for a second term, to fight back against foreign meddling.

  EU cybersecurity and disinformation officials expect a surge in online falsehoods in the 20 days prior to the European Parliament election June 6-9, when millions of Europeans elect new representatives. Officials fear that Russia is ramping up its influence operations to sow doubt about the integrity of elections in the West and to manipulate public opinion in its favor.”

  

  By the way, madam, western election integrity has been thoroughly compromised by the men who tell you what to do. More than half of us think elections are stolen. More than half. That’s not disinformation, it’s math.

  This week Michael Shellenberger, who is the acknowledged lead in the take-down of the global censorship complex, had a look at Julie Inman Grant, another American Barbie, now Australia’s “e-safety commissioner,” with ties to the WEF. Grant had demanded that X censor a migrant stabbing, and X refused. Grant, as Shellenberger describes, is the Zelig of internet history tinkering in the bowels of said internet until she burst onto the public stage as Australia’s chief censor, bent on building a global online safety network.

  Working for Big Daddy is apparently something these ghastly creatures value.

  At a recent government hearing, she announced, “We have powerful tools to regulate platforms with ISP blocking power, and can collect basic device information, account information, phone numbers and email addresses, so that our investigators can at least find a place to issue a warning.” Grant went on to say they could compel take-downs, fine perpetrators and fine content hosts.

  The Daily Mail had a ball with Inman Grant, mocking her and pointing out that she was wasting taxpayer money on a game of whack-a-mole.

  

  Nevertheless, Grant takes herself very very seriously and since she is accreting power at a massive clip, so must we.

  Grant’s network of independent regulators is called the Global Online Safety Regulators Network. “We have Australia, France, Ireland, South Africa, Korea, the UK and Fiji so far, with others observing. Canada is coming along,” she preens, “and is about to create a National Safety Regulator.” Canada’s proposed censorship program is so draconian you can be jailed for something you posted online years ago. And the government proposing it is so unpopular, it will be lucky to hang onto 20 seats in the next election.

  There are literally hundreds of these women. Why? Why?

  At a meeting this year of the World Economic Forum, Věra Jourová, from the European Commission, outlined just how exciting she and her team found the tools she is being given. “We can,” she said, “influence in such a way the real life and the behavior of people!” She sighed with excitement after this sentence. Jourova was caught last September trying to spread yet another Russia hoax. You have only to hear censorship plans uttered in a central-European accent to really understand what is happening here.

  As terrifying as this all seems, and it is terrifying, it is instructive to look at the ruination of the career of America’s chief censor, Renée DiResta. DiResta, as research head of the Stanford Internet Observatory, is now being sued for abuse of power and unethical behavior that violates the constitution. Spookily, DiResta soared from “new mom” to providing the intellectual under-pinnning for censorship, until she headed up the Stanford Internet Observatory during Covid, where she was instrumental in censoring vaccine and Covid “disinformation.” People thought her backstory contrived and in fact, Shellenberger found that she was, unmistakably another CIA trained censor of inconvenient information under the guise of “safety.”

  At this point, every time you hear the word ‘safety”, it’s best to check your ammunition supply. Said Shellenberger:

  As research director of Stanford Internet Observatory, DiResta was the key leader and spokesperson of both the 2021 “Virality Project,” against Covid vaccine “misinformation” and the 2020 “Election Integrity Project.”

  Shellenberger goes on to look into DiResta’s work history and finds a lot of congruence with CIA operations.

  But then I learned that DiResta had worked for the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). The journalist Matt Taibbi pointed me to the investigative research into the censorship industry by Mike Benz, a former State Department official in charge of cybersecurity. Benz had discovered a little-viewed video of her supervisor at the Stanford Internet Observatory, Alex Stamos, mentioning in an off-hand way that DiResta had previously “worked for the CIA.”

  In her response to my criticism of her on Joe Rogan, DiResta acknowledged but then waved away her CIA connection. “My purported secret-agent double life was an undergraduate student fellowship at CIA, ending in 2004 — years prior to Twitter’s founding,” she wrote. “I’ve had no affiliation since.”

  But DiResta’s acknowledgment of her connection to the CIA is significant, if only because she hid it for so long. DiResta’s LinkedIn includes her undergraduate education at Stony Brook University, graduating in 2004, and her job as a trader at Jane Street from October 2004 to May 2011, but does not mention her time at the CIA.

  And, notably, the CIA describes its fellowships as covering precisely the issues in which DiResta is an expert. “As an Intelligence Analyst Intern for CIA, you will work on teams alongside full-time analysts, studying and evaluating information from all available sources—classified and unclassified—and then analyzing it to provide timely and objective assessments to customers such as the President, National Security Council, and other U.S. policymakers.”

  At this juncture it is a race, as the intelligence community moves to shut down the revelations of its manipulations and machinations, and people injured by the vaccine and the flagrant abuse of election integrity move to fight them. It is instructive to note that DiResta, while apparently soaring to the heights of journalism at Wired, the New York Times, the Atlantic, selling her safety/censorhip program, cannot seem to get actual people to read or subscribe to her Substack. DiResta, like so many women in power now, are in reality, talentless cutouts for a hidden and malignant agenda.

  An agenda that the people of the world roundly hate. I have just one final thing to saw to these truly dreadful human beings. My God is stronger than whatever demon or predator you obey. And as a woman, I am ashamed of each and every one of you. To use one of your awful phrases: Do Better.

  *  *  *

  There is a lot of work to do, please consider funding a very cheap annual subscription.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 05/19/2024 – 20:25

• America's Competitors Think That The Window Of Opportunity Is Now Open To Divide The World
  America’s Competitors Think That The Window Of Opportunity Is Now Open To Divide The World

  By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

  

  “The United States still thinks in terms of the Cold War and is guided by the logic of bloc confrontation, putting the security of ‘narrow groups’ above regional security and stability, which creates a security threat for all countries in the region,” read the 7,000 word Joint Statement of the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation on Deepening the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership of Coordination for the New Era in the Context of the 75th Anniversary of China-Russia Diplomatic Relations. Quite a mouthful.

  “The US must abandon this behavior.”

  The statement followed a two-day meeting between Putin and Xi in Beijing. It is a strong signal, the kind of thing that matters greatly, for decades to come.

  “Russia and China are determined to defend their legitimate rights and interests, resist any attempts to hinder the normal development of bilateral ties, interfere in the internal affairs of the two states, and limit the economic, technological or foreign policy potential of Russia and China.”

  The joint release went on to explore areas of cooperation/coordination between the neighboring autocracies: North Korea, Nuclear War, Markets, Industry, Agriculture, Technology, Energy, Ukraine, and of course Taiwan.

  “The parties oppose the hegemonic attempts of the United States to change the balance of power in Northeast Asia by building up military power and creating military blocs and coalitions.”

  The crack between East and West, the Global South and North, is rapidly widening. America’s competitors and adversaries appear to think that the window of opportunity is now open to divide the world before their collapsing demographics deny them any realistic chance of success.

  Given their trajectories, it is probably a risk worth taking for Putin and Xi. “The China-Russia relationship today is hard-earned, and the two sides need to cherish and nurture it,” Xi told Putin during the press conference.

  “China is willing to… jointly achieve the development and rejuvenation of our respective countries and work together to uphold fairness and justice in the world.”

  And to win, the US must simply have faith that the weight of the world’s nations will follow our lead, if only we have the courage and determination to live up to our founding principles.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 05/19/2024 – 19:50

• Too Narrowly Focused?
  Too Narrowly Focused?

  By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

  Too Narrowly Focused?

  The Citi Economic Surprise Index continues to deteriorate (worst levels in a year).

  

  Bond yields have declined (the 10-year Treasury got to 4.31% on Thursday, basically the bottom of our 4.3% to 4.5% range, and crept higher the rest of the week). Bonds in part moved on economic data (weak), inflation (high, but “explainable”), and Powell (who couldn’t resist being dovish) effectively dismissing the higher than anticipated PPI (explainable as it was). I’d argue that bond yields went lower partly due to economic data and partly due to Powell.

  Stocks did well again this week (1% to 2% depending on the index), but the narrative seemed narrowly focused on Powell, cherry picking economic data, and the ongoing importance of corporate buybacks in an otherwise slow and boring tape.

  As we start this week, Nvidia’s earnings on May 22nd seem to be the biggest catalyst as there is virtually no data on Monday or Tuesday. While we will likely hear from more Fed speakers, will anyone pay attention after Powell’s tone last week?

  My concern, I guess, is that we are spending too much time focused on the Fed and inflation, while ignoring (or not treating as importantly) other data.

  Inflation Fixation

  The market, to some degree, has seemed to:

  • Wait for inflation data.
  • Explain away higher than expected prints.
  • Rally.

  I completely understand the arguments for why the inflation prints were not as bad as they seemed on the surface. The explanations ranged from:

  • Downward revisions to prior months meant that inflation has been overstated (which I could agree with, if everyone didn’t seem to believe that official inflation data has underestimated the rise in prices that we all face every day).
  • The components. The components are critical, and the misses can be explained (at least somewhat) by components that aren’t as relevant or seem like one-time things (auto insurance for example). That all makes sense, though I have to admit that my rate of health insurance cost has blown away any official estimate of health insurance (maybe I’m unique? I don’t think so. Maybe healthcare isn’t that important? I beg to differ). In any case there are enough arguments to be made that I understand why the market was not overly perturbed by the prints (plus I have liked the 10-year down to 4.3% and still am in the 2-cut camp, so the arguments didn’t hurt there – they just didn’t translate into my equity underweight view).
  • Lag effects. This one bothers me on so many levels. Partly, when a year or so ago we were arguing that official inflation was too high due to the lagged effect of rent, it was a struggle to get traction with the theme (the government data was showing the highest monthly increases in decades, at times when online information was confirming a slowdown in rents). Actual rent increases still are occurring and have been pretty stable around pre-COVID levels (according to Zillow). So, the excitement that we use old data, which will start reflecting declines from almost a year ago, seems strange (to say the least). I cannot understand, for the life of me, why we use Owners ’ Equivalent Rent (which has always seemed like a bizarre method) and why we accept a methodology that is lagged (on purpose). Making any policy, on knowingly incorrect data, has never made sense and never will.

  The next paradox for the Fed: since Shelter/OER inflation lags by 18 months, housing inflation will decline well into 2025 even as actual rents are again starting to tick up.

  By the time lagged CPI catches up with “today”, real rents will be rising double digits. pic.twitter.com/sHOWxN2OVQ

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 12, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  But, I’m not here to argue about where inflation has been, I’m here to point out that I think the market has been too narrowly fixated on past inflation, and what the Fed might do about that, while not thinking enough about some bigger picture issues.

  My simple case for inflation is this:

  • If inflation continues to come down, it is likely to be tied to a weakening economy, which should be good for bonds, but not so good for stocks (assuming that tenuous link between lower bond yields and higher stocks can be broken again).
    • My worst-case view would be seeing a decline in inflation due to more and more selling of Chinese brands, which will put margin pressure on companies domiciled outside of China as they need to compete. The benefit of lower inflation will accrue to bondholders, but stocks won’t like declining sales, increased competition (largely on price), and the associated margin pressures.
  • If inflation goes higher, it could be due to:
    • Robust domestic job growth. A resurgence in the global economy, which would not be good for bonds, but stocks should do quite well even with rising bond yields.
    • Increased cooperation between China and Russia. Accidental or willful acts to increase commodity prices. Demand from India as their economy surges and the wealth effect takes hold. While this might not accompany “stagflation,” it could set us up for inflation on a global basis without commensurate growth in the domestic economy.

  I do believe that with PPI and CPI behind us, markets will start delving deeper into the overall slew of economic data and are unlikely to like what they see.

  China, Russia, and the Geopolitical Landscape

  We asked the question, Will Tariffs Outweigh CPI? They didn’t. The media and most economists were quite sanguine about this round of tariffs (as opposed to the ones imposed in 2018, which remain in place). Maybe they were so “concentrated” that they are unlikely to impact the shape of the global economy? Maybe China won’t respond? Or maybe we are missing a big risk?

  In Friday’s Geopolitical Risks – Perception versus Reality, we examine CYBER, Commodities, the Middle East, Russia, Trade War, and “wildcard” risk. For now, our assessment is that the biggest gap between perception and reality is around the Trade War (with commodities not too far behind). Please see that report, as nothing about the recent announcement that China and Russia are cooperating more makes me any less concerned that the Trade War is about to ratchet higher.

  Also, if you missed it, I recommend listening to this month’s Around The World Podcast.

  Bottom Line

  • Neutral on yields. We are too close to the bottom end of our range to be very bullish, and the specter of inflation (especially from commodities) is too troubling to take the range lower.
  • Underweight equities. As we move beyond inflation and the Fed (hopefully), the reality that is “less than exceptional” might start sinking in. As a reminder, FXI and KWEB (my proxies for China stocks) were up 5.6% and 7.1% respectively last week! I also think, based on our geopolitical work, that adding exposure to commodity related stocks (and the commodities themselves) makes sense.
  • I’m still not sure what we will learn about the AI story on Wednesday (everyone wants it, everyone needs it, everyone is getting it, and there are shortages even as prices rise), that isn’t already priced into this market.

  Hopefully we do get an expanded narrative and spend less time and energy worrying about an inflation print here or there and how the Fed will act, and focus instead on the bigger discourse on the state of the global economy and the likely direction of travel (which I continue to think will not be favorable for our markets).

  On the other hand, I could be the one being too narrowly focused (on China and geopolitics), but I’m encouraged by recent announcements that my fixation is valid (not encouraged for the state of global affairs, just in the narrow definition that I don’t think I’m wasting time or energy thinking about trade war escalation).

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 05/19/2024 – 19:15

• Two New Swing State Polls Show Why Biden Is Desperate To Debate Trump
  Two New Swing State Polls Show Why Biden Is Desperate To Debate Trump

  Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

  Trump Leads in 5 Key States, as Young and Nonwhite Voters Express Discontent With Biden according to Nate Cohn at the New York Times.

  

  A Surge in Discontent With Biden

  Please consider Trump Leads in 5 Key States by Nate Cohn.

  The surveys by The New York Times, Siena College and The Philadelphia Inquirer found that Mr. Trump was ahead among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup against Mr. Biden in five of six key states: Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden led among registered voters in only one battleground state, Wisconsin.

  The race was closer among likely voters. Mr. Trump led in five states as well, but Mr. Biden edged ahead in Michigan while trailing only narrowly in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

  The results were similar in a hypothetical matchup that included minor-party candidates and the independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who won an average of 10 percent of the vote across the six states and drew roughly equally from the two major-party candidates.

  Nearly 70 percent of voters say that the country’s political and economic systems need major changes — or even to be torn down entirely.

  Only a sliver of Mr. Biden’s supporters — just 13 percent — believe that the president would bring major changes in his second term, while even many of those who dislike Mr. Trump grudgingly acknowledge that he would shake up an unsatisfying status quo.

  The sense that Mr. Biden would do little to improve the nation’s fortunes has helped erode his standing among young, Black and Hispanic voters, who usually represent the foundation of any Democratic path to the presidency. The Times/Siena polls found that the three groups wanted fundamental changes to American society, not just a return to normalcy, and few believed that Mr. Biden would make even minor changes that would be good for the country.

  Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden are essentially tied among 18-to-29-year-olds and Hispanic voters, even though each group gave Mr. Biden more than 60 percent of their vote in 2020. Mr. Trump also wins more than 20 percent of Black voters — a tally that would be the highest level of Black support for any Republican presidential candidate since the enactment of the Civil Rights Act of 1964.

  The economy and the cost of living, however, remain the most important issues for one-quarter of voters — and a significant drag on Mr. Biden’s prospects. More than half of voters still believe that the economy is “poor,” down merely a single percentage point since November despite cooling inflation, an end to rate hikes and significant stock market gains.

  Goodness Gracious

  A CNN analyst was SHOCKED that a new poll from NYT found Trump up double digits in Nevada, 9 in Georgia

  “My goodness gracious, my God. That is a huge lead. No Democrat has lost that state since John Kerry.” https://t.co/VHfFtcpxXb

  — Brendon Leslie (@BrendonLeslie) May 13, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “My goodness gracious, my God. That is a huge lead. No Democrat has lost that state since John Kerry.”

  I believe it’s time for a musical tribute interlude.

  We now return to our regularly scheduled program.

  Emmerson College Polling

  

  Emmerson College reports Trump Holds Edge Over Biden in Seven Key Swing State Polls

  In Arizona, Trump leads by four points: 48% to 44%; 8% are undecided. In Georgia, 47% support Trump, 44% Biden, and 9% are undecided. In Michigan, 45% support Trump, 44% Biden, and 11% are undecided. In Nevada, 45% support Trump and 44% support Biden, while 11% are undecided. In North Carolina, 47% support Trump, and 42% Biden; 10% are undecided. In Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, 47% support Trump, 45% Biden, and 8% are undecided.

  “Independent voters break for Trump over Biden in Arizona (48%-38%), Michigan (44%-35%), Nevada (43%-37%), Pennsylvania (49%-33%), and North Carolina (41%-38%). However they break for Biden over Trump in Georgia (42%-38%) and Wisconsin (44%-41%),” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted.

  When third-party candidates are included on the ballot, support is pulled away from Biden more than Trump in five states: Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Support is drawn evenly from each candidate in Arizona and Michigan.

  Impact of a Guilty Verdict on Independent Voters’ Likelihood to Support Trump

  • AZ: 32% more likely, 25% less likely, 43% no impact

  • GA: 26% more likely, 32% less likely, 42% no impact

  • MI: 26% more likely, 30% less likely, 45% no impact

  • NC: 32% more likely, 25% less likely, 43% no impact

  • NV: 25% more likely, 32% less likely, 43% no impact

  • PA: 31% more likely, 24% less likely, 45% no impact

  • WI: 24% more likely, 30% less likely, 47% no impact

  Hoot of the Day

  Independents in Arizona, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania say a conviction would make it more likely they voted for Trump.

  What a hoot!

  That’s how much of a farce the trial is.

  Biden’s Excuse for Bad Polls

  If you need another hoot, I can help. Please note the White House blames the pandemic and Russia for Biden’s dismal swing state poll numbers.

  Peter Doocy: “Why do you think Americans are so down on President Biden right now? I know you don’t like to talk about polls, like the five of six swing states that he is losing right now to somebody who is a criminal defendant, but, more broadly, it doesn’t seem like anything… pic.twitter.com/7YovAnxG01

  — Julia 🇺🇸 (@Jules31415) May 14, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Biden Challenges Trump to a Debate

  “Make my day” said Biden to Trump in a Tweet, challenging Trump to a debate. Two debates are set. Trump seeks two more. What just happened?

  I discussed the debate on May 15 in Biden Challenges Trump to a Debate, Trump Accepts, Advantage Whom?

  What Just Happened?

  Biden is so far behind in the swing state polls, that he needs to win these debate. If Biden was far ahead, it’s highly doubtful that he would go on stage for more than a short debate, and one as late as possible.

  Trump cannot turn it down, so he upped the ante to four.

  Winning two out of two for Biden will be hard enough. But if Biden flunks the first two he will want more.

  Biden’s Extremely Big Bet

  Even the Washington Post can spot Biden’s desperation.

  Please consider Biden’s Extremely Big Bet

  The last time the U.S. presidential election was a rematch of the previous election, Dwight D. Eisenhower smashed Democrat Adlai Stevenson into little pieces (figuratively), as he had four years before. This rematch promises to follow that pattern, not in outcome but in similarity. In 2020, Biden won as a function of narrow victories in a handful of battleground states (though he won the popular vote much more handily). This year’s outcome, by all appearances, will be even more narrowly determined.

  If Biden wants to bring younger voters back into the fold, he’s got another problem. Polling shows that they prioritize the same issues as Americans overall, meaning primarily economic ones on which Trump is more favorably positioned.

  Important Issues 18-29 Year-Olds

  

  Top Issues

  Two of the top three issues are inflation and housing. They are very related. Rent has gone up at least 0.4 percent for 32 months, nearly three years.

  Home prices are at record highs and mortgage rates are above 7.0 percent making housing very unaffordable for those who want to buy a home.

  New York Times Swing State Poll Detail

  

  The Shocker

  18-29 year-olds turned out en masse for Biden four years ago. Trump now leads age groups 18-29 and 30-44.

  And it’s not just the youth vote. According to Pew, Biden captured 92 percent of the black vote in 2020. Now it’s 49-14-11 (Biden, Trump, Kennedy).

  If these percentages hold, Trump is going to win every swing state plus a few more not yet presumed to be in the ballpark.

  Spotlight Blacks

  On April 12, the Kansas Reflector commented on Black Support for Biden.

  Black voters overwhelmingly supported President Joe Biden in 2020 and were key to his win, but there is some evidence that Black voter enthusiasm for Biden may be slipping. And Trump is hoping to capitalize on that. He spoke last month at a meeting of the Black Conservative Federation and he argues that Black voters were better off financially when he was in office. Even if Black voters don’t buy that message, voters’ frustration could result in them turning to a third party candidate, Cornell Belcher, a pollster who worked for Barack Obama, told The New York Times.

  To counter Trump, the Biden campaign is spending millions on radio ads in swing states at Black-owned and Latino-owned radio stations to point out the administration’s accomplishments, including investments in historically Black colleges and universities through grant funding and the American Rescue Plan Act, the cancellation of student loan debt for 3.9 million borrowers, and reducing Black child poverty in 2021, which it has connected to the then expansion of the child tax credit.

  In March of last year, Black people’s unemployment rate hit a record low and the economic recovery shows that by historical standards, Black and Hispanic workers have had faster wage growth these past few years. The unemployment rate for Black people has begun to tick up again, but economists say they’re waiting for more data before considering it a long lasting trend.

  But Melanie Campbell, president of the National Coalition on Black Civic Participation, said the unemployment rate for Black Americans does not tell the whole story. “The other part of that message has to do with, ‘OK, I may be employed but I’m still working three jobs just to pay my rent,’” she said.

  Sarah Wallace, 49, a Philadephian who lives on Social Security Disability Insurance, says she has to spend the lion’s share of it on $1,500 in rent each month. She voted for Biden in 2020, but said she may vote third party this time.

  “I think Biden sold all of us on his dream to get into the office … And that was that,” she said.

  Generational Homeownership Rates

  

  Home ownership rates courtesy of Apartment List

  People Who Rent Will Decide the 2024 Presidential Election

  On April 20, before the latest polls, and before I found the above Kansas Reflector post, I commented People Who Rent Will Decide the 2024 Presidential Election

  Immigration won’t decide the election. Polls have not yet captured what will. This may come as a surprise, but the top issue housing. More explicitly, it’s shelter costs.

  Who Are the Renters?

  The answer is younger voters and blacks.

  The Apartment List 2023 Millennial Homeownership Report shows Millennial homeownership seriously lags other generations.

  Generation Z homeownership is dramatically lower still.

  And according to the National Association of Realtors, the homeownership rate among Black Americans is 44 percent whereas for White Americans it’s 72.7 percent.

  That’s the largest Black-White homeownership rate gap in a decade.

  Young voters are angry about rent, angry over home prices, and angry over mortgage rates. That is reflected in the polls.

  Economists still don’t get it. They think the economy is doing great.

  If you are an asset holder, the economy might seem great (see Dear Jerome Powell, Is Everything Under Control? Spotlight Gold and Silver).

  But the 36 percent of people who rent, mainly young voters and blacks, see things differently. And they will decide the election, for Trump, if the polls stay anywhere close to where they are.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 05/19/2024 – 18:05

• Dozens Of People Show Up To Biden Campaign Event…
  Dozens Of People Show Up To Biden Campaign Event…

  Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

  Joe Biden held a campaign even in Atlanta Saturday and literally dozens of people showed up.

  

  The event, which entailed more pandering to black people, took place at Mary Mac’s Tea Room in downtown Atlanta, where Biden looked completely out of it.

  He looked around totally confused and began saluting as people laughed at him before he was introduced:

  Biden exists in a state of perpetual confusion 😬 pic.twitter.com/IQxLGtoxkc

  — RNC Research (@RNCResearch) May 18, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Just look at the size of the crowd:

  Love to see this…

  President Biden working the room in Atlanta before speaking — taking the time to chat with just about everyone. The mutual respect and admiration is clear.

  “When we first got elected we were told that because everything was so close, in terms of numbers, we… pic.twitter.com/5uYsNkx3pf

  — Christopher Webb (@cwebbonline) May 18, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Earlier, Biden’s motorcade drove through Atlanta and practically no one cared:

  Biden passing through Atlanta with the motorcade. pic.twitter.com/g2k9uZsh6J

  — Everything Georgia (@GAFollowers) May 18, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Compare this energy to the Trump Rally in New Jersey last weekend where almost 100,000 people turned up:

  Mega MAGA. Look at the amount of people at this. https://t.co/WoS2o6UJlL

  — m o d e r n i t y (@ModernityNews) May 11, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Trump rally in Wildwood.

  85,000 happy people who don’t hate America. pic.twitter.com/QM6qHtPQT4

  — Citizen Free Press (@CitizenFreePres) May 12, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Biden is probably on a come down from whatever they pumped him full of on Friday:

  What is going on here? https://t.co/CXDJireFWe

  — m o d e r n i t y (@ModernityNews) May 19, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Trump has demanded drug testing prior to the debates, noting that Biden was “high as a kite” during the SOTU address:

  🚨Trump says he is going to demand Biden take a drug test for the debate because Biden was “high as a kite” during the SOTU! 🪁 pic.twitter.com/dbnWB5pWFK

  — Jenna Fredo (@LynkLuv) May 18, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  *  *  *

  Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 05/19/2024 – 16:55

• Millennials Drive E-Mobility In The US
  Millennials Drive E-Mobility In The US

  The decision to switch from a fossil-fuel-powered car to a more emission-friendly model can be governed by a variety of factors, ranging from monetary to ideological. As Statista’s Florian Zandt reports, a recent survey from Statista’s Consumer Insights suggests that the adoption of plug-in hybrid (PHEV) and battery electric vehicles (BEVs) can also be seen as a generational question, at least in the United States.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  For example, 22 percent of U.S. respondents born between 1980 and 1994 have an electric vehicle as a primary car in their household, while 10 percent own a BEV.

  Gen Z shows a similar enthusiasm for e-mobility, with a total of 14 percent reporting either a PHEV or BEV in their household.

  Survey participants belonging to the baby boomer generation born, in the case of this specific survey, between 1960 and 1964 had a significantly lower interest in switching to electric models, with only three percent owning a PHEV and one percent having a BEV as the primary household car.

  Despite underlying sustainability issues like the sourcing of rare earth materials and cobalt, lithium and nickel, which are also used in the production of many other industrial or consumer electronics, fleet electrification is seen as an important step to decarbonize the emission-intensive transport and logistics sector. With large car companies introducing a wider range of PHEV and BEV models to their portfolio and leading U.S. BEV producer Tesla ramping up sales numbers over the past couple of years, progress towards this goal has increased significantly between 2020 and 2023 in the United States.

  However, EV sales only make up a fraction of total car sales. For example, data from WardsAuto released by the Argonne National Laboratory shows 1.4 million cars with plug-in hybrid or fully electric drive sold in the U.S. in 2023, the majority of which are BEVs. Overall sales of light trucks and passenger cars amounted to between 13.5 and 15.5 million in the same year, depending on the source.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 05/19/2024 – 16:20

• COVID-19 And Vax Contributed To Increase In Rare Autoimmune Disease In 2021: Study
  COVID-19 And Vax Contributed To Increase In Rare Autoimmune Disease In 2021: Study

  Authored by Marina Zhang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Cases of a rare autoimmune disease surged between 2020 and 2022 in Yorkshire, England, peaking in 2021. COVID-19 infection and its vaccines possibly contributed to the rise, a recent study in The Lancet’s eBioMedicine found.

  

  The disease—melanoma differentiation-associated protein-5 (anti-MDA5) positive dermatomyositis, or anti-MDA5 dermatomyositis—is an inflammatory disease characterized by muscle weakness, skin rashes, and rapidly progressive lung disease.

  Anti-MDA5 dermatomyositis is very rare.

  In 2019, Yorkshire, which has a population of 3.6 million, reported two people testing positive for the disease. In 2020, there were nine. Cases peaked in 2021 with 35 new cases. The number then dropped to 16 new cases in 2022.

  The new autoimmune cases may have arisen from the COVID-19 virus and vaccine RNA interactions, the study’s senior author, Dr. Dennis McGonagle, clinical professor of medicine at the University of Leeds, told The Epoch Times.

  Besides the Lancet study, several case studies have documented new anti-MDA5 cases following COVID-19 infection or vaccination.

  What Is Anti-MDA5 Dermatomyositis

  Anti-MDA5 dermatomyositis is an autoimmune condition in which the body attacks itself. It can often appear without a clear cause.

  Dermatomyositis tends to affect the skin, muscles, and lungs. Anti-MDA5 dermatomyositis involves rapidly progressive lung disease, which lends the condition a poor prognosis.

  MDA5 is a protein present outside of muscles and tissues, especially prominent in the lungs. Therefore, when the body forms anti-MDA5 antibodies to attack MDA5, it can deteriorate related organs and tissues.

  MDA5 can detect and bind to foreign RNA, including COVID-19 RNA. Upon detection, it signals other immune cells to fight the foreign invader or vaccination.

  “We think that … [this happens] because MDA5 is the receptor or docking site for viral RNA, and that this in some way triggers the antibody against it,” Dr. McGonagle said.

  In a COVID-19 infection, MDA5’s binding to RNA can result in too much MDA5 activity as a response, Dr. Pradipta Ghosh, director of the Institute for Network Medicine at the University of California–San Diego and another corresponding author of the study, told The Epoch Times.

  COVID-19 patients were shown to have high MDA5 gene activity in their lung fluids, further suggesting that the virus might have triggered new MDA5 cases.

  Apart from anti-MDA5, 15 other autoantibodies can contribute to similar dermatomyositis diseases. The role of MDA5 in COVID-19 infection and vaccination may explain why, during the pandemic, only anti-MDA5 dermatomyositis cases increased while other autoantibodies involved in dermatomyositis did not.

  Between 2020 and 2022, all 60 new anti-MDA5 dermatomyositis patients in Yorkshire were evaluated. All developed symptoms.

  Over 40 percent developed interstitial lung disease and had a worse prognosis. Half died by the time the study was published.

  The authors noted that anti-MDA5 cases during the pandemic presented slightly differently than pre-pandemic cases.

  Compared to pre-pandemic, anti-MDA5 cases reported during the pandemic had a lower rate of lung disease and a lower death rate, said Dr. Ghosh. The disease also affected white people as opposed to Asians, who were the more predominant demographic previously.

  Pandemic-era patients tend to report skin-related conditions such as rashes, decreased blood flow to fingers, muscle aches, and so on.

  Coincidental Rise

  The peak of anti-MDA5 cases between April and July 2021 coincided closely with Yorkshire’s uptake of COVID-19 vaccines and occurred during a time of “higher community SARS-CoV-2 positivity during 2021,” the authors reported. Vaccinations started in Yorkshire in January 2021 and dropped off in October.

  Around 90 percent of the Yorkshire population was vaccinated, and 49 of the 60 cases had documented COVID-19 vaccination.

  Contrastingly, only 15 out of 60 had had a confirmed COVID-19 infection.

  While many people tested positive for COVID-19 at the time, the authors noted that anti-MDA5 cases did not rise immediately after a rise in COVID-19 cases.

  Other Reports

  In addition to the reports in Yorkshire, other studies have shown a link between anti-MDA5 dermatomyositis and COVID-19 and its vaccine.

  An Italian case study published in Frontiers in Immunology reported the case of an older, unvaccinated woman who developed anti-MDA5 dermatomyositis a month after her COVID-19 infection. She had joint pain and developed rashes and lesions on her chest, face, and hands.

  The authors argued that MDA5, which is involved in the activation of various cytokines, may precipitate inflammatory reactions when exposed to SARS-CoV-2.

  Another paper published in SN Comprehensive Clinical Medicine reported an anti-MDA5 dermatomyositis case that occurred a week after COVID-19 vaccination. The researchers hypothesized that antibodies to spike proteins on the SARS-CoV-2 virus may cross-react with human proteins like MDA5.

  However, Dr. Ghosh said that while spike protein has been implicated in other autoimmune diseases, anti-MDA5 disease is caused by antibodies against MDA5, not spike.

  “I believe that we have a lot of work to do before we can begin to understand why or how our body responds to this virus, its particles, its RNA/protein—even the RNA encoding its key components we use as vaccine in the plethora of ways that it does,” she explained.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 05/19/2024 – 15:45

• American & Foreigners Reportedly In Custody After Deadly Coup Attempt, Shootout In Congo 
  American & Foreigners Reportedly In Custody After Deadly Coup Attempt, Shootout In Congo 

  Military leaders of the Democratic Republic of Congo’s (DR Congo) said they have put down an attempted coup in a dramatic Sunday incident which included a large shootout erupting in the capital of Kinshasa.

  At least three men have been reported killed, with two being police officers which engaged a team of armed attackers. The third deceased is said to be one of the gunman. A government spokesman has stated “The armed men attacked the Kinshasa residence of Vital Kamerhe, a federal legislator and a candidate for speaker of the National Assembly of DR Congo, but were stopped by his guards.”

  

  “The Honorable Vital Kamerhe and his family are safe and sound,” the spokesman announced on X. The attempted assassination failed, with the “situation under control” – according to the military, but the whole murky incident is raising eyebrows in the West as the army says it has detained some suspects who hold US and Canadian passports.

  The army has further said most of those behind the attempted coup were mostly foreigners and also identified Congolese citizens based abroad, according to initial reports. “There is no link between these people and the local army or members of security forces in Kinshasa,” an Al Jazeera correspondent has said based on official sources.

  However, some initial conflicting reports indicated Congolese soldiers may have been involved, but there’s a widely circulating video to have emerged showing opposition leader Christian Malanga apparently taking credit. Malanga says in the video, “Felix, you’re out. We are coming for you” – in reference to President Felix Tshisekedi. The ‘rebels’ are said to be part of the Malanga-aligned “New Zaire Movement”.

  Throughout the day there’s been a heavy military presence patrolling streets around the scene of the attack in the aftermath. The US Embassy in the capital has issued an emergency security alert to all Americans to maintain caution and vigilance on “reports of gunfire”. Various embassies, including Japan, are warning their nationals not to go outside of their homes or to shelter in place.

  Footage from the scene of the attack aftermath:

  🇨🇩 Dans cette vidéo réalisée ce matin au Palais de la Nation, on aperçoit Christian Malanga (qui se fait déjà appeler « Président Malanga » par son fils ) et ses hommes entrain de remplacer les drapeaux de la RDC 🇨🇩 avec les drapeaux du Zaïre pic.twitter.com/5xuXYmqRJ4

  — The Voice Of Congo (@VoiceOfCongo) May 19, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The conflict appears to be related to what were supposed to be elections held Saturday to install a new leader of parliament, but they were postponed under President Tshisekedi’s ruling party.

  According to more details via BBC:

  Witnesses say a group of about 20 assailants in army uniform attacked the residence and an exchange of gunfire followed. Two guards and an assailant were killed in the attack on Mr Kamerhe’s house, his spokesman and the Japanese ambassador said in posts on X.

  The men also occupied the Palais de la Nation, the office of the President of the Republic which is located in the city centre, a place highly secured by the Republican Guard.

  Authorities are urging calm later in the day Sunday: “An attempted coup d’etat has been put down by the defense and security forces. The attempt involved foreigners and Congolese. These foreigners and Congolese have been put out of action, including their leader,” said Congolese army spokesperson Brigadier General Sylvain Ekenge.

  A regional correspondent for Canada’s Globe & Mail has said that Westerners are in custody, including at least one American, though this remains unconfirmed at a government official level:

  Benjamin Zalman-Polun, reportedly an American cannabis entrepreneur, was among about 20 men captured by Congo’s military today in Kinshasa after a failed rebellion led by Christian Malanga, head of a small political party in the DRC diaspora in the United States. https://t.co/tfqLdWYORp

  — Geoffrey York (@geoffreyyork) May 19, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “The armed forces of the DRC ask the population to go about their business freely and peacefully. The defense and security forces are in complete control of the situation,” Ekenge added.

  The president and his ruling party, Sacred Union of the Nation, have said they won’t “hesitate to dissolve the National Assembly and send everyone to new elections if these bad practices persist.”

  While little is confirmed at this point as to the identities of the detained, speculation is rampant amid a strange cast of individuals…

  The two other Americans were Malanga’s partners in the gold mining venture in Manica province, Mozambique. Cole Patrick Ducey had been involved in a patent dispute over a cannabis herb grinder, before moving to Eswatini. He was arrested during the attack. pic.twitter.com/yDdFwjxzfr

  — Ryan O’Farrell (@ryanmofarrell) May 19, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Congo has for decades been attempting to achieve stability while dealing with rampant corruption, high poverty and a huge population angry at elite politicians who oversee and vie for control of the immense mineral wealth. This has led to a perpetual state of internecine civil unrest and conflict.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 05/19/2024 – 15:10

• Inflation Is A Policy. Gold Does Not Reflect Monetary Destruction, Yet
  Inflation Is A Policy. Gold Does Not Reflect Monetary Destruction, Yet

  Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

  The money supply is rising again, and persistent inflation is not a surprise. Inflation occurs when the amount of currency increases significantly above private sector demand. For investors, the worst decision in this environment of monetary destruction is to invest in sovereign bonds and keep cash. The government’s destruction of the purchasing power of the currency is a policy, not a coincidence.

  Readers ask me why the government would be interested in eroding the purchasing power of the currency they issue. It is remarkably simple.

  

  Inflation is the equivalent of an implicit default. It is a manifestation of the lack of solvency and credibility of the currency issuer.

  Governments know that they can disguise their fiscal imbalances through the gradual reduction of the purchasing power of the currency and with this policy, they achieve two things: Inflation is a hidden transfer of wealth from deposit savers and real wages to the government; it is a disguised tax. Additionally, the government expropriates wealth from the private sector, making the productive part of the economy assume the default of the currency issuer by imposing the utilization of its currency by law as well as forcing economic agents to purchase its bonds via regulation. The entire financial system’s regulation is built on the false premise that the lowest-risk asset is the sovereign bond. This forces banks to accumulate currency—sovereign bonds—and regulation incentivizes state intervention and crowding out of the private sector by forcing through regulation to use zero to little capital to finance government entities and the public sector.

  Once we understand that inflation is a policy and that it is an implicit default of the issuer, we can comprehend why the traditional sixty-forty portfolio does not work.

  Currency is debt and sovereign bonds are currency.

  When governments have exhausted their fiscal space, the crowding-out effect of the state on credit adds to the rising taxation levels to cripple the potential of the productive economy, the private sector, in favor of constantly rising government unfunded liabilities.

  Economists warn of rising debt, which is correct, but we sometimes ignore the impact on currency purchasing power of unfunded liabilities. The United States is enormous at $34 trillion, and the public deficit is intolerable at nearly $2 trillion per year, but that is a drop in the bucket compared with the unfunded liabilities that will cripple the economy and erode the currency in the future.

  The estimated unfunded Social Security and Medicare liability is $175.3 trillion (Financial Report of the United States Government, February 2024). Yes, that is 6.4 times the GDP of the United States. If you think that will be financed with taxes “for the rich,” you have a problem with mathematics.

  The situation in the United States is not an exception. In countries like Spain, unfunded public pension liabilities exceed 500% of GDP. In the European Union, according to Eurostat, the average is close to 200% of GDP. And that is only unfunded pension liabilities. Eurostat does not analyze unfunded entitlement program liabilities.

  This means that governments will continue to use the “tax the rich” false narrative to increase taxation on the middle class and impose the most regressive tax of all, inflation.

  It is not a coincidence that central banks want to implement digital currencies as quickly as possible. Central Bank Digital currencies are surveillance disguised as money and a means of eliminating the limitations of the inflationary policies of the current quantitative easing programs. Central bankers are increasingly frustrated because the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy are not fully under their control. By eliminating the banking channel and thus the inflation backstop of credit demand, central banks and governments can try to eliminate the competition of independent forms of money through coercion and debase the currency at will to maintain and increase the size of the state in the economy.

  Gold vs. bonds shows this perfectly. Gold has risen 89% in the past five years, compared to 85% for the S&P 500 and a disappointing 0.7% for the US aggregate bond index (as of May 17, 2024, according to Bloomberg).

  Financial assets are reflecting the evidence of currency destruction. Equities and gold soar; bonds do nothing. It is the picture of governments using the fiat currency to disguise the credit solvency of the issuer.

  Considering all this, gold is not expensive at all. It is exceedingly cheap. Central banks and policymakers know that there will be only one way to square the public accounts with trillions of dollars of unfunded liabilities. Repay those obligations with a worthless currency.

  Staying in cash is dangerous; accumulating government bonds is reckless; but rejecting gold is denying the reality of money.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 05/19/2024 – 14:35

• Israel's Wartime Government Fracturing As Top Minister Threatens To Quit
  Israel’s Wartime Government Fracturing As Top Minister Threatens To Quit

  Tensions within the Israeli government are exploding, after Defense Minister Yovav Gallant earlier this week called out Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and gave him an ultimatum, demanding that a day-after plan be offered and approved by the government.

  “I call on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, to make a decision and declare that Israel will not establish civilian control over the Gaza strip, that Israel will not establish military governance in the Gaza strip, and that a governing alternative to Hamas in the Gaza strip will be raised immediately,” Gallant said recently. 

  What’s more is that Washington is backing Gallant’s pressure campaign against Netanyahu. “We share the Defense Minister’s concern that Israel has not developed any plans for holding and governing territory the IDF [Israel Defense Forces] clears, thereby allowing Hamas to regenerate in those areas. This is a concern because our objective is to see Hamas defeated,” a senior Biden administration official told The Hill. 

  

  Gallant first issued his indictment days ago, but over the weekend Axios reported that a timetable has been issued. It was War Minister Benny Gantz’s turn to ratchet up the pressure, backing Gallant’s stance:

  Minister Benny Gantz, a notable member of Israel’s war cabinet, gave an ultimatum to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday and said his party will leave the government if the cabinet doesn’t approve a strategy for the war in Gaza by June 8.

  Gantz complained in the Saturday speech that the hardliners in Netanyahu’s coalition are “taking Israel into a wall” – a reference to ministers Itamar Ben Gvir and Betzalel Smotruch. Gantz threatened to withdraw from the fragile coalition government which could collapse it.

  It didn’t take long over the weekend of the prime minister to issue a statement defying both his own top ministers and Washington. 

  The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office rejected Gantz threat in a fresh statement. “The conditions set by Benny Gantz are washed-up words whose meaning is clear: the end of the war and a defeat for Israel, the abandonment of most of the hostages, leaving Hamas intact and the establishment of a Palestinian state,” it said.

  Netanyahu further questioned Gantz and his political allies’ resolve to see the mission through. “Prime Minister Netanyahu thinks that the emergency government is important for achieving all the goals of the war, including the return of all our hostages, and expects Gantz to clarify his positions to the public on these issues,” the statement continued.

  Gantz then hit back again in response to Netanyahu’s office, saying the prime minister should not “drag his feet for fear of the extremists in his government.”

  Anti-Netanyahu protests have meanwhile only grown larger and stronger…

  #TelAviv tonight: Tens of thousands are back on the streets calling for Netanyahu’s ouster.

  ▪️ Rallies held as War Cabinet Min Gantz issues an ultimatum to Netanyahu.

  ▪️ For the 1st time, Opposition Leader Lapid speaks at Tel Aviv rally. pic.twitter.com/iPvNvezHNz

  — Yonatan Touval (@Yonatan_Touval) May 18, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Critics of Netanyahu have accused the Israeli leader ultimately placing his own political survival above the true security interests of Israel. They’ve charged that his incentive is to prolong the conflict, and that this does further harm to the cause of bringing the hostages home.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 05/19/2024 – 14:00

• University's COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate Violates US Constitution: Court
  University’s COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate Violates US Constitution: Court

  Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  A Colorado university’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate violates the U.S. Constitution, a federal court has ruled.

  

  The Sept. 1, 2021, mandate “clearly violates the Establishment Clause and the Free Exercise Clause as interpreted by our precedents,” a majority of a U.S. Court of Appeals for the 10th Circuit said in the May 7 decision.

  While the mandate was later updated, the newer version also violates the Constitution, the judges said.

  The University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus in 2021 required COVID-19 vaccination of all students and employees. It initially offered religious exemptions to anyone who checked a box, but later said administrators would “only recognize religious exemptions based on religious beliefs whose teachings are opposed to all immunizations.”

  Officials, for instance, said that Christian Scientists would qualify for an exemption but Buddhists would not.

  They also said that exemptions would only be granted to people who never received any vaccinations.

  Medical exemptions, on the other hand, were available if a doctor said the prospective recipient’s health or life would be endangered.

  Seventeen students and employees, all of whose applications were denied, sued over the policy, alleging it was discriminatory.

  U.S. District Judge Raymond Moore, an appointee of former President Barack Obama, in 2022 ruled that the plaintiffs did not show they would suffer irreparable harm absent a stay of the initial mandate, and that they had not met the burden of showing the updated mandate was not neutral.

  The case against the Sept. 1 mandate also became moot because the requirements were updated, the judge said.

  That ruling was wrong, according to the appeals court, in part because the initial mandate was used to fire two employee plaintiffs and Judge Moore placed the burden regarding mootness on the plaintiffs.

  Under the Sept. 1 policy, Anschutz administrators “rejected applicants’ beliefs based not on their sincerity, but rather on their perceived validity,” according to the new ruling. Even after receiving numerous pages of explanations of religious beliefs, each application was denied. Administrators rejected one application because officials claimed that it was “morally acceptable” for Catholics to receive COVID-19 vaccines, judging any position otherwise as personal objections as opposed to religious ones.

  The policy was “explicitly non-neutral” since, according to a ruling in a separate case, the First Amendment does not allow governments to “discriminate in favor of some religions and against others,” the majority said.

  Policies that infringe on constitutional rights can survive under “strict scrutiny” if officials can prove they are justified by a “compelling state interest” and were “narrowly tailored in pursuit of that interest.” Anschutz said it was motivated by a desire to stem the spread of COVID-19, but “has not even attempted to explain why its interest is served by granting exemptions to practitioners of some religions, but not others,” according to the panel.

  The Sept. 24, 2021, policy was a purported update that was said to assess whether religious exemption requests were “made based on a sincerely-held religious belief” but evaluations conducted under that policy reached the same results, indicating the updated version “was a mere pretext to continue the Administration’s September 1 Policy,” the majority said. It said the updated version also failed the strict scrutiny test because it has a lower bar for medical exemptions than religious exemptions.

  U.S. Circuit Judge Allison Eid, an appointee of former President Donald Trump, authored the opinion. She was joined by Circuit Judge Jerome Holmes, who was appointed by former President George W. Bush.

  Circuit Judge David Ebel, an appointee of former President Ronald Reagan, in a partial concurrence and dissent, said he agreed the Sept. 1 policy likely violated the First Amendment but that the Sept. 24 version fixed the constitutional issues.

  “The September 24 mandate is neutral toward religion and generally applicable,” he said.

  Defendants in the case included the University of Colorado’s Board of Regents and officials at the University of Colorado Anschutz School of Medicine.

  The board and the school did not respond to requests for comment.

  The appeal was brought by the Thomas More Society on behalf of the students and employees.

  “The University of Colorado ran roughshod overstaff and students of faith during COVID, and the court of appeals has now declared plainly what we’ve fought to establish for almost three years: the university acted with ‘religious animus’ and flagrantly violated the fundamental religious liberties of these brave healthcare providers and students,” Peter Breen, executive president of the society, said in a statement.

  “The court of appeals correctly ruled,” he added later, “that no government entity has the right to appoint itself as a doctrinal tribunal that defines which religious beliefs count as deeply and sincerely held and deem those religious beliefs valid or invalid.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 05/19/2024 – 13:25

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• George Washington Warned Against A 'Passionate Attachment' To Israel
  George Washington Warned Against A ‘Passionate Attachment’ To Israel

  By Brian McGlinchey at Stark Realities 

  As war rages in Gaza, the intensifying debate over the US-Israel relationship spotlights a political paradox: Those Americans who view George Washington with deepest reverence — that is, would-be “conservatives” — are often the ones who most zealously violate the central tenet of his foreign policy philosophy.

  Specifically, their fierce devotion to the State of Israel defies Washington’s admonition against “passionate attachments” to other countries — attachments that, he said, inevitably lead America “astray from its duty and its interest.”

  That’s not to say that excessive advocacy for Israel is confined to the American right: As demonstrated by President Biden’s backing of Israel’s destruction of Gaza, the championing of policies that serve Israel to America’s detriment also runs rampant among establishment Democrats.

  Regardless of your position on the political spectrum, Washington’s foreign policy advice merits your attention, and the US-Israel relationship serves as a case study that validates his warnings about the many evils that spring from “habitual fondness” for a foreign nation…including one that didn’t exist when his warnings were issued.

  

  After deciding not to pursue a third term as America’s first president, Washington gave the country a parting gift: a farewell address delivered not from a podium, but from the front page of Philadelphia’s Daily American Advertiser.

  Washington’s 7,641-word address reads like an owner’s manual for the young republic. He asked Americans to give “solemn contemplation” and “frequent review” to his guidance, which was “the result of much reflection, and no inconsiderable observation.”

  Let’s review some key excerpts of Washington’s foreign policy guidance, starting with the principle he put above all others:

  “Nothing is more essential than that permanent, inveterate antipathies against particular nations, and passionate attachments for others, should be excluded; and that, in place of them, just and amicable feelings towards all should be cultivated.”

  With this guidance, Washington echoed the wisdom of other American founders. Thomas Jefferson urged “peace, commerce, and honest friendship with all nations, entangling alliances with none.” John Quincy Adams approvingly said, “[America] has abstained from interference in the concerns of others, even when conflict has been for principles to which she clings…She is the well-wisher to the freedom and independence of all. She is the champion and vindicator only of her own.”

  In addition to “passionate attachments,” Washington denounced habitual hostility toward other countries. As we’ll discuss later, the US government’s passionate attachment to Israel is itself the font of hostilities equally unrooted in American interest.

  “The nation which indulges towards another an habitual hatred or an habitual fondness is in some degree a slave. It is a slave to its animosity or to its affection, either of which is sufficient to lead it astray from its duty and its interest.”

  While it’s a little less universal these days, “habitual fondness” for Israel remains widespread in American politics, particularly on the right and center-left, and more so among government officials than citizens.

  That habitual fondness is routinely manifested by pronouncements that would make Washington, Jefferson and Madison cringe. Drawing from a common well of fawning rhetoric, politicians frequently refer to a supposedly “unbreakable bond” between America and Israel. Another cliche sees officials stating there must be “no daylight” between the two countries. Endorsing DC’s unconditional backing of Israel, and showing utter disregard for future contingencies, President Obama proclaimed that “our alliance is eternal, it is forever.”

  Many politicians go so far as to say Israel is America’s “greatest ally.” One can only imagine reactions in the UK, Canada, Australia and many other countries that have gone to war alongside the United States on multiple occasions in this century, sacrificing lives and limbs as Israel offers little more than encouragement.

  Taking things to mind-bending extremes, you’ll even encounter declarations that “real Americans stand with Israel” — perversely measuring American patriotism by the extent to which one is devoted to a foreign country.

  

  For many — especially evangelical Christians — habitual fondness for Israel has a religious dynamic. Viewed through religious, rose-colored glasses, the State of Israel is transformed from a modern, man-made political entity — led, like all governments, by manipulative, power-hungry politicians who pursue all manner of ungodly policies — into something sacred that supposedly represents and carries out God’s will.

  Exploiting the religious angle, Israel’s advocates — even a US representative speaking in a recent congressional hearing — claim that America is compelled to serve the State of Israel because the bible says God will bless those who bless the nation of Abraham and curse those who curse it — as if today’s modern political entity and what’s referenced in the bible are one and the same.

  Validating Washington’s warning that habitual fondness for a foreign country makes one an unthinking slave to that affection, these same people ignore the Israeli government’s killing of Christians in Gaza and the mistreatment endured by West Bank Christians — to say nothing of recurring incidents of ultra-orthodox Israeli Jews spitting on followers of Christ.

  

  Especially where government officials are concerned, passionate attachments to Israel can bring enormous financial rewards.

  Case in point: Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton, who’s arguably the most extreme advancer of Israeli interests on Capitol Hill. When he ascended to the Senate in 2014, Cotton benefitted from $960,000 in spending on his behalf by the Emergency Committee for Israel, in addition to $250,000 contributed to a Cotton-backing PAC by New York hedge fund billionaire and Israel-backer Paul Singer, and $100,000 from pro-Israel Boston billionaire Seth Klarman.

  Then there’s Donald Trump, who’s not only made pandering to Israel a staple of his speeches, but, as president, took a variety of actions that had long been on the Israeli agenda. His reward: $20 million for his 2020 re-election bid from Las Vegas casino billionaire Sheldon Adelson, in what was reportedly a quid pro quo for moving the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has personally affirmed the idea that habitual fondness has made America “in some degree a slave” to Israel. In a moment of candid conversation with West Bank settlers, Netanyahu was caught on video as he boasted, “I know what America is. America is a thing you can move very easily.”

  Those who champion Israel’s interest on Capitol Hill do their own bragging. American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) lobbyist Steven Rosen famously pushed a napkin across a table and said, “You see this napkin? In 24 hours, we could have the signatures of 70 senators on this napkin.”

  Patriotic Americans aren’t the only ones put off by that kind of influence. Marveling at the extraordinary sway his tiny country holds over the world’s foremost power, Israeli journalist and author Gideon Levy wrote:

  “A new chapter is being written in the history of nations. Never before has a small country dictated to a superpower; never before has the chirp of the cricket sounded like a roar; never has the elephant resembled the ant – and vice versa. No Roman province dared tell Julius Caesar what to do, no tribe ever dreamed of forcing Genghis Khan to act in accordance with its own tribal interests.”

  President Clinton used a different kind of colorful language as he confronted the upside-down power dynamic. After being lectured by Netanyahu during his first meeting with the Israeli prime minister, an angry Clinton exploded, asking his aides, “Who the fuck does he think he is? Who’s the fucking superpower here?!”

  …read the rest at Stark Realities

  

  Stark Realities undermines official narratives, demolishes conventional wisdom and exposes fundamental myths across the political spectrum. Read more and subscribe at starkrealities.substack.com  

  * * *

  Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 05/18/2024 – 23:20

• Ex-CDC Director Says It's High Time To Admit 'Significant Side Effects' Of COVID-19 Vaccines
  Ex-CDC Director Says It’s High Time To Admit ‘Significant Side Effects’ Of COVID-19 Vaccines

  Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Dr. Robert Redfield, former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), said Thursday that many officials who tried to warn the public about potential problems with COVID-19 vaccines were pressured into silence and that it’s high time to admit that there were “significant” side effects that made people sick.

  

  Dr. Redfield made the remarks in a May 16 interview with Chris Cuomo on NewsNation, during which he lamented the loss of public confidence in public health agencies because of a lack of transparency around the vaccines, which he said “saved a lot of lives” but also made some people “quite ill.”

  “Those of us that tried to suggest there may be significant side effects from vaccines … we kind of got canceled because no one wanted to talk about the potential that there was a problem from the vaccines, because they were afraid that that would cause people not to want to get vaccinated,” Dr. Redfield said.

  In his role as head of the CDC, Dr. Redfield was part of the Trump administration’s Operation Warp Speed, a project to surge COVID-19 vaccine development at a time during the pandemic when little was known about the virus and rapid vaccine rollout was widely seen as key to getting the outbreak under control and lockdowns lifted.

  In September 2020, a few months before the first COVID-19 vaccines were given in the United States, Dr. Redfield testified before the Senate that COVID-19 represented the “most significant public health challenge to face our nation in more than a century,” and that the prevailing view among scientists at the time was that the overall case fatality rate of the disease was somewhere between 0.4 and 0.6 percent in the United States.

  “If you were to look right now, individuals under the age of 18, it’s about 0.01 percent, 19 to say 69, it’s more like 0.3 percent. And if you’re over the age of 70, it’s about 5 percent now,” he testified at the time.

  While there’s lingering controversy about the severity of COVID-19, a recent study estimates that the global case fatality rate was 8.5 percent in February 2020 but had plunged to 0.27 percent in August 2022, meaning that the estimated relative risk reduction over that time was a whopping 96.8 percent.

  In his interview on NewsNation, Dr. Redfield said that the vaccines that were developed as part of Operation Warp Speed were “important” and saved “a lot of lives.” However, despite their benefits, the drawbacks of the vaccines must be a matter of open discussion, he said.

  “They’re important for the most vulnerable people, those over 60, 65 years of age. They really aren’t that critical for those that are under 50 or younger. But those vaccines saved a lot of lives, but they also—we have to be honest, some people got significant side effects from the vaccine,” he said.

  “I have a number of people that are quite ill and they never had COVID, but they are ill from the vaccine,” he continued. “And we just have to acknowledge that.”

  Vaccine Controversy

  The severity of COVID-19 remains a matter of debate because it’s unclear whether deaths were overcounted or undercounted due to various factors, such as lack of clarity around the role of underlying medical conditions in fatalities in cases where COVID-19 was listed as the primary cause, or underreporting of asymptomatic infections. Aside from the issue of whether people died “from” COVID-19 or “with” a positive test for SARS-CoV-2, there have also been questions about the role of secondary pneumonia caused by mechanical ventilation.

  Either way, a study from January 2023 indicates that the global case fatality rate from COVID-19 has dropped dramatically over the course of the pandemic. Global case fatalities ranged from 1.7 to 39.0 percent in February to March of 2020, according to the study—but fell to below 0.3 percent in July to August 2022.

  The researchers estimate that the risk of death from COVID-19 has dropped by 96.8 percent over the course of the pandemic.

  Along with a decline in COVID-19 fatalities, there have been growing concerns about vaccine side effects, given that a significant number of vaccinated people have reported various adverse reactions.

  The most common COVID-19 vaccine adverse events are those that affect the body generally, with fever, fatigue, and overall discomfort being the top three, according to the U.S. Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS). But there are others.

  For instance, heart muscle inflammation (myocarditis) and inflammation of the lining outside the heart (pericarditis) have both officially been acknowledged by the CDC as a known side effect of Moderna’s and Pfizer’s mRNA COVID-19 vaccines.

  Nervous system disorders have also been reported, with such disorders being the third most common in the Pfizer trials, coming after general and muscle-related adverse events.

  There have also been papers linking spike-protein-based COVID-19 vaccines to skin problems, a dull ringing in the ears known as tinnitus, visual impairments, blood clotting, and even death. Recent reporting from EpochTV’s “American Thought Leaders“ program indicates that the likelihood of death associated with COVID-19 vaccines (in close proximity to the shot rather than proven as caused by it) was over 100 times greater than for flu vaccines.

  There are also concerns about a post-vaccination jump in excess deaths and disability.

  The CDC still recommends that people of all ages receive a COVID-19 vaccine, saying that the potential side effects do not outweigh the potential harms of getting sick with COVID-19.

  In a notice published in late April, the agency again called for adults aged 65 and older to get the latest version of the vaccines.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 05/18/2024 – 22:45

• House Republicans Express Concern Over Sharp Uptick On Chinese Migrants Illegally Crossing Border
  House Republicans Express Concern Over Sharp Uptick On Chinese Migrants Illegally Crossing Border

  Authored by Darlene McCormick Sanchez via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Republicans on the House Homeland Security subcommittee expressed concern as the surge of illegal Chinese migrants hit an all-time high in April after the Biden administration relaxed vetting rules last year.

  

  House Homeland Security Subcommittee on Oversight, Investigations, and Accountability Chairman Dan Bishop (R-N.C.) held the hearing on May 16 to address the “unprecedented flow of Chinese nationals” illegally crossing the U.S. southern border, which has topped 27,000 since Oct. 1.

  The latest CBP numbers show that 3,324 Chinese nationals crossed the southwest border in April alone—more than the total crossings for the entire 2022 fiscal year.

  This year’s total tops 27,000 encounters, surpassing the 24,000 illegal southwest border crossings during the entire 2023 fiscal year.

  That’s a massive jump from recent years. In 2022, the number of Chinese migrant encounters was slightly more than  2,000 at the U.S. southern border. In 2021, that number was 450.

  Nationwide encounters of Chinese migrants entering unlawfully are even higher.

  When looking at encounters across the country this fiscal year, CBP data shows more than 48,000 encounters so far with illegal Chinese migrants, which includes migrants coming through ports of entry.

  Mr. Bishop said during the hearing he is concerned that the vetting process, which has been decreased from 40 to five questions for Chinese migrants, does little to protect America’s national security. 

  “As the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) continues its quest for geopolitical dominance and threatens our sovereignty, we must examine the risks presented by releasing ever-increasing numbers of minimally vetted Chinese nationals into our communities,” Mr. Bishop said in a statement.

  The Democrats’ Homeland Security website dismissed those concerns, characterizing it as “another Republican Border ‘hearing’ with invasion rhetoric and fear-mongering.”

  Mr. Bishop said Chinese migrants crossing illegally into the U.S. could have “nefarious motives,” noting federal indictments in North Carolina last month showed partnerships between Mexican drug cartels and Chinese transnational criminal organizations engaged in money laundering operations throughout the United States. 

  Experts invited to testify indicated that the vetting process was unlikely to find any criminal background information on Chinese nationals who have never been in the United States because China does not readily share that information with American authorities. Border Patrol officers must rely on foreign nationals to answer questions truthfully.

  Simon Hankinson, senior research fellow with the Heritage Foundation’s Border Security and Immigration Center, told the committee that the vetting process was insufficient.

  “At best, this is a mockery of U.S. immigration law and sovereignty, and at worst, it is a huge national security and community safety risk. In addition to many Chinese with connections to the Communist Party, People’s Liberation Army, and other state entities, it is statistically probable that [Department of Homeland Security] DHS is releasing people with criminal records,” he said.

  

  Todd Bensman, a national security fellow with the Center for Immigration Studies, brought along passports and identification cards he found near the border. The stamps inside the passports prove their holders traveled through safe countries that would have granted protection, therefore disqualifying them for U.S. asylum, he said.

  While most Chinese nationals were likely coming to work, Mr. Bensman said there was little doubt that “Beijing spymasters” also noticed a new opportunity at the wide open U.S. southern border.

  However, Meredith Owen, an associate history professor at the University of Maryland, testified that most Chinese are coming to the United States to flee oppression and find jobs.

  She highlighted past actions by the U.S. government targeting Chinese immigrants, which had dire consequences. The Chinese became the first and only nation to be singled out by U.S. immigration law with the 1882 Chinese Exclusion Act, she said.

  The anti-Chinese movement that drove the creation of the act cited Chinese migration as a unique threat to the United States, she said.

  “These fears led to extreme violence against Chinese immigrants, including mob violence and the burning of Chinatowns,” she said.

  Committee member Yvette Clarke (D-N.Y.) said during the hearing she is concerned about how to fix America’s “broken“ immigration system and implied racism was the reason behind opposition to migration.

  

  “We’re here today because Republicans are demagoguing and exploiting the xenophobic and white supremacist ideologies that are fueling the immigration debate in this nation,“ she said.

  Since President Joe Biden took office, there have been more than 9 million encounters nationwide and some 7.6 million encounters at the southwest border alone.

  House Republicans blame Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorka’s policies under the Biden administration for the border crisis. 

  The House voted Feb. 13 to impeach the secretary for “willful and systemic refusal to comply with the law“ and for the “breach of public trust.”

  However, the Democrat-controlled Senate dismissed impeachment charges against him before holding a trial, leaving Mr. Mayorkas in office.

  Democrats have pointed out that America was built on immigrants and benefits from their labor.

  Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.) said during an immigration subcommittee hearing in January that “many illegal immigrants“ were needed for agriculture production or “our vegetables would rot in the ground.”

  

  Republicans, however, question the surge of Chinese nationals coming across the U.S. southern border.

  In April 2023, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) instructed Border Patrol agents to reduce the number of questions they asked Chinese migrants.

  At the time, agents were facing a record number of illegal crossings from all nationalities.

  The hearing became contentious at times, with committee member Delia Ramirez (D-Ill.) saying Mr. Bensman’s organization had been labeled as a hate group by the Southern Poverty Law Center. 

  This leftwing group has listed many conservative organizations as “hate” groups, such as parental rights groups headed by moms.

  Ms. Ramirez accused Mr. Bensman of “uplifting the same invasion rhetoric central to the white nationalist and antisemitic Great Replacement conspiracy theory” on social media.

  “There is no hateful antisemitic speech in my Twitter [now called X] feed,“ Mr. Bensman responded. “I am Jewish, and we don’t really get with white nationalists; that’s not our thing, so get your facts straight.”

  Mr. Bensman also suggested she read a book titled, “Making Hate Pay: The Corruption of the Southern Poverty Law Center.” 

  In 2023, Republican senators led by Roger Marshall (R-Kansas) wrote to Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorka, suggesting some Chinese migrants entering the U.S. illegally may be tied to the CCP.

  “There have been numerous documented instances of Chinese nationals, at the direction of the CCP, engaging in espionage, stealing military and economic secrets,“ according to the letter.

   The letter also noted that China is a significant source of drugs such as fentanyl being trafficked across the U.S. southern border.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 05/18/2024 – 22:10

• Eric Cartman Goes On Ozempic
  Eric Cartman Goes On Ozempic

  South Park creators Trey Parker and Matt Stone have been master craftsmen at flawlessly capturing and satirizing society’s absurdities since the first episode of the animated comedy series debuted on Comedy Central in August 1997.

  As of May, and 330 episodes later, Parker and Stone are preparing to debut the next exclusive streaming event, “The End of Obesity.” 

  

  “The advent of new weight loss drugs has a huge impact on everyone in South Park. When Cartman is denied access to the life-changing medicine, the kids jump into action,” South Park’s official X account wrote. 

  In the teaser trailer, Eric Cartman visits a doctor about his obesity. The doctor says,  “It’s time for some drastic measures to bring down his weight.” The doctor then asks Cartman, “Have you ever heard of Semaglutides … Ozempic, Mounjaro?” 

  However, Cartman is denied access to Semaglutides and then asks his friends Kyle, Stan, Butters, and Kenny for help. 

  Kyle Broflovski, Cartman’s friend, says these drugs “could be dangerous.” 

  And, of course, Cartman ignores the warnings and says, “Let’s do it!” 

  Leopold “Butters” Stotch, another friend of Cartman’s, says: “We’ve been out navigating the American healthcare system … and I almost died.” 

  The advent of new weight loss drugs has a huge impact on everyone in South Park. When Cartman is denied access to the life-changing medicine, the kids jump into action.

  The new exclusive event SOUTH PARK: THE END OF OBESITY premieres May 24, 2024 on Paramount+! #SouthPark… pic.twitter.com/7A5rQB8q7x

  — South Park (@SouthPark) May 15, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  What’s troubling, and likely, Parker and Stone have captured this theme in the upcoming episode, set to debut on May 24, is how America’s healthcare system, a combination of big government and big pharma, is doing very little to promote healthy diets and exercise – which by the way would help solve the obesity crisis – instead have chosen the dangerous pathway of over medicating Americans with even more drugs. 

  • Address Metabolic Crisis At Its Root, Don’t Hook Obese Americans On Gov’t-Funded Ozempic
  • Five Simple Policies To Reset America’s “Rigged” Health System

  South Park has released six other streaming events: “South Park: Post COVID,” “South Park: Post COVID: The Return of COVID,” “South Park: The Streaming Wars,” “South Park: The Streaming Wars Part 2,” “South Park: Joining the Panderverse” and the recently released “South Park (Not Suitable For Children).”

  I’m looking forward to this 😂 https://t.co/LGqGlOTiuU

  — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 18, 2024

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  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 05/18/2024 – 21:35

• US State Department Issues 'Worldwide Caution' Alert For Americans
  US State Department Issues ‘Worldwide Caution’ Alert For Americans

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  The U.S. Department of State on Friday issued a “worldwide caution” alert for U.S. citizens to remain alert for possible terrorist attacks or other violent actions against Americans.

  

  In a “security alert” posted on its website, the agency said the warning was sent because of the “potential for terrorist attacks, demonstrations, or violent actions against U.S. citizens and interests.” Americans who are overseas, it added, are encouraged to use “increased caution.”

  The Department of State said it is also “aware of the increased potential for foreign terrorist organization-inspired violence against” LGBT people, echoing a statement issued by the FBI and Department of Homeland Security earlier this week that terrorist groups such as ISIS could target “Pride” month-related events in June.

  “Stay alert in locations frequented by tourists, including Pride celebrations and venues frequented” by those individuals, the bulletin added. It did not provide any specific details about any alleged or reported terrorist plots.

  Late last year, the State Department issued a similar worldwide alert for Americans following the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack in Israel that triggered the ongoing conflict in Gaza.

  About a week ago, the agency issued a statement to U.S. citizens in the Middle East, cautioning them to heed a travel advisory for Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank because of active military operations in the area.

  “Terrorist groups, lone-actor terrorists and other violent extremists continue plotting possible attacks in Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza,” it said. “Terrorists and violent extremists may attack with little or no warning, targeting tourist locations, transportation hubs, markets [or] shopping malls, and local government facilities.”

  The Israel-Hamas conflict has led to a “complex situation” that could have implications for U.S. citizens’ safety, the department said, adding that the Israel Defense Forces currently has control over the Gaza side of Rafah Crossing.

  Israel has said that about 100 hostages are still captive in Gaza, along with the bodies of about 30 more. Military officials and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Friday said that its forces found the bodies of three Israeli hostages killed by Hamas during its Oct. 7 attack, including German-Israeli Shani Louk.

  Mr. Netanyahu called the deaths “heartbreaking,” saying in a statement, “We will return all of our hostages, both the living and the dead.”

  Hamas-led terrorists killed about 1,200 people, mainly civilians, and abducted about 250 others in the Oct. 7 attack. About half of those hostages have since been freed, most in swaps for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel during a weeklong cease-fire in November.

  FBI and DHS Warning

  In a separate bulletin, both the FBI and DHS said that groups such as ISIS, or Islamic State, might “seek to exploit increased gatherings associated” with “Pride”-related events. The terrorist threats could come via the mail, in person, or online, the agencies stated without elaborating or providing specific details.

  The bulletin noted that June 12 is the eighth anniversary of the mass shooting at the Pulse Nightclub in Orlando in which 49 people died. After the incident, pro-ISIS groups “praised this attack as one of the high-profile attacks in Western countries” and “supporters celebrated it,” according to the FBI and DHS.

  Both agencies also noted that in February 2023, an ISIS-related message board had included “rhetoric and rallied against the growth and promotion” of LGBT groups.

  The two agencies revealed “possible indicators” of what they called “potential threat activity,” which includes “unusual surveillance or interest in buildings, gatherings, or events” as well as “unusual or prolonged testing or probing of security measures at events or venues,” violent threats made online or in person, and photography of security related equipment or personnel.

  In April, the FBI announced that it had arrested an 18-year-old Idaho man for allegedly plotting to carry out a terrorist attack targeting local churches. The man, identified in court documents as Alexander Mercurio, is accused of telling an FBI informant about his alleged plans and that he wanted to carry out an attack on April 7, but he was thwarted by officials.

  Meanwhile, Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) earlier this week warned that an ISIS-linked human smuggling network was discovered at the U.S.-Mexico border, adding that the FBI told him about ISIS-linked “individuals who are facilitating the passage of migrants across the U.S.–Mexican border into the United States.”

  Mr. Cornyn, who was speaking at a congressional hearing, added that he believes that it is only a matter of “when” and not “if” a terrorist attack is carried out on U.S. soil.

  Several weeks ago, FBI Director Chris Wray said foreign terrorist groups are again looking to attack the United States in an “increasingly concerning” way, noting that his agency is attempting to prevent an attack on U.S. soil via terrorist groups such as ISIS-K, a regional branch of ISIS mainly in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

  “Foreign terrorists, including ISIS, al-Qaeda, and their adherents, have renewed calls for attacks against Jewish communities here in the United States and across the West in statements and propaganda,” Mr. Wray said in April.

  The Associated Press contributed to this report.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 05/18/2024 – 21:00

• Fierce Fighting Gets Closer To US-Built Gaza Pier Just As Initial Aid Rolls Off
  Fierce Fighting Gets Closer To US-Built Gaza Pier Just As Initial Aid Rolls Off

  While global coverage of the Gaza crisis has focused on the Israeli offensive in the southern city of Raffah of late, fierce battles have erupted in the north of the Strip over the last several days, especially in Jabalia, where the IDF military is in a fierce anti-insurgent style battle set amid narrow alleyways.

  The city which lies 2.5 miles north of Gaza City saw a ‘return’ of Hamas fighters after the IDF months ago conquered it. It has long been deemed among the Strip’s permanent refugee camps. There are reports that Israeli armor has smashed deep into the heart of the camp and city.

  

  Hamas also appears to have stepped-up its attacks on Israeli forces in various locations, and Al Jazeera reports at least 40 Palestinian deaths over the course of the last day.

  “Tanks and planes are wiping out residential districts and markets, shops, restaurants, everything. It is all happening before the one-eyed world,” a resident of Jabalia identified as Ayman Rajab told a regional outlet.

  The same outlet observed that this intensifying fighting is occurring in the same northern region as the US Army-built humanitarian aid pier:

  “People are terrified and they’re trying to get away,” Jens Laerke, UN humanitarian office spokesperson, said in Geneva, adding that most were following orders to move north toward the coast but that there were no safe routes or destinations.

  As the fighting raged, the US military said trucks started moving aid ashore from a temporary pier, the first to reach the besieged enclave by sea in weeks.

  The situation is heating up even as famine is said to be present in this northern area. “To stave off the horrors of famine, we must use the fastest and most obvious route to reach the people of Gaza – and for that, we need access by land now,” deputy UN spokesperson Farhan Haq announced in a statement, even as initial US aid deliveries via the pier get underway from nearby Cyprus.

  This of course creates the potential that expanded fighting could occur close to the vicinity where American troops are overseeing pier operations just off the coast.

  The Pentagon previously made it clear that if US troops come under fire, they are authorized to defend themselves and fire back. However, the IDF has also said it is providing security on land, and there are at least two Israeli bases established nearby.

  Israel has said of the intense Jabalia fight:

  The Israel Defense Forces said troops killed more than 60 militants in Jabalia in recent days and located a weapons warehouse in a “divisional-level offensive.”

  A divisional operation would typically involve several brigades of thousands of troops each, making it one of the biggest of the war. “The 7th Brigade’s fire control center directed dozens of airstrikes, eliminated terrorists and destroyed terrorist infrastructure,” the IDF said.

  Again, this is all potential recipe for a looming disaster which could suck the Pentagon directly into the chaos of northern Gaza fighting. Some Congressional leaders have recently sought to address this possibility in hearings:

  After the catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan, Biden is putting troops in harm’s way with a half baked plan to construct a pier in Gaza.

  Watch me question Biden admin officials, @CENTCOM Commander, and @USAfricaCommand Commander during today’s @HASCRepublicans hearing ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/hS5AW54wXS

  — Rep. Rob Wittman (@RobWittman) March 21, 2024

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  As for Hamas, its armed wing is openly advertising that it is pouring its members into the fight. Via its Telegram channel the group said that its fighters:

  • shot an Israeli soldier with sniper fire east of Jabalia
  • attacked a group of 15 soldiers with anti-personnel devices and then used light weapons and hand grenades while they were inside a house in al-Tanour neighbourhood, east of Rafah
  • targeted a Merkava tank with a Yassin-105 rocket in the same neighbourhood
  • shelled Rafah crossing
  • targeted an “Apache” Israeli military helicopter with an anti-aircraft surface-to-air missile (SAM-7)
  • blew up an Israeli military bulldozer east of Rafah

  There further remains the possibility that Palestinian militants could send drones against the pier, which is something both the Pentagon and IDF appear to have prepared for.

  🛰 Several Coyote Block 2 Anti-UAS/UAV deployed on US-built floating pier( also known as JLOTS costs $326 million)
  Threat Perception/Kamikaze UAV- UAS https://t.co/7EYscUvYtn pic.twitter.com/zxHW94CKO7

  — Hurşit Dingil (@hursitdingil) May 18, 2024

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  How will this all end? Things look to continue to get worse, and there’s still no sign of positive momentum toward a ceasefire on the horizon.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 05/18/2024 – 20:25

• Ex-CIA Ray McGovern: Russia & China – Two Against One
  Ex-CIA Ray McGovern: Russia & China – Two Against One

  Authored by Ray McGovern via Consortium News

  Chinese President Xi Jinping’s extremely warm reception of President Vladimir Putin yesterday in Beijing sealed the increasingly formidable Russia-China strategic relationship. It amounts to a tectonic shift in the world balance of power. 

  The Russia-China entente also sounds the death knell for attempts by U.S. foreign policy neophytes to drive a wedge between the two countries. The triangular relationship has become two-against-one, with serious implications, particularly for the war in Ukraine. If US President Joe Biden’s foreign policy geniuses remain in denial, escalation is almost certain.

  

  In a pre-visit interview with Xinhua, Putin noted the “unprecedented level of strategic partnership between our countries.” He and Xi have met more than 40 times in person or virtually. In June 2018, Xi described Putin as “an old friend of the Chinese people” and, personally, his “best friend.”

  For his part, Putin noted Thursday that he and Xi are “in constant contact to keep personal control over all pressing issues on the Russian-Chinese and international agenda.” Putin brought along Defense Minister Andrey Belousov as well as veterans like Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and key business leaders.

  Joint Statements Matter

  Xi and Putin signed a strong joint statement Thursday, similar to the extraordinary one the two issued on Feb. 4, 2022, in Beijing. It portrayed their relationship as “superior to political and military alliances of the Cold War era. Friendship between the two States has no limits, there are no ‘forbidden’ areas of cooperation…”

  The full import of that statement did not hit home until Putin launched the Special Military Operation into the Donbass three weeks later. China’s muted reaction shocked most analysts, who had dismissed the possibility that Xi would give “best friend” Putin, in effect, a waiver on China’s bedrock policy of non-interference abroad.

  In the following weeks, official Chinese statements made clear that the principles of Westphalia had taken a back seat to “the need for every country to defend its core interests” and to judge each situation “on its own merits.”

  Nuclear War

  Thursday’s statement expressed concern over “increased strategic risks between nuclear powers” — referring to continued escalation of the war between NATO-supported Ukraine and Russia.

  It condemns “the expansion of military alliances and creation of military bridgeheads close to the borders of other nuclear powers, particularly with the advanced deployment of nuclear weapons and their means of delivery, as well as other items.”

  Putin has undoubtedly briefed Xi on the U.S. missile sites already in Romania and Poland that can launch what Russians call “offensive strike missiles” with flight time to Moscow of less than 10 minutes. Putin surely has told Xi about the inconsistencies in U.S. statements regarding intermediate-range nuclear missiles.

  For example, Xi is aware — just as surely as consumers of Western media are unaware — that during a Dec. 30, 2021, telephone conversation, Biden assured Putin that “Washington had no intention of deploying offensive strike weapons in Ukraine.”

  There was rejoicing in the Kremlin that New Years’ Eve, since Biden’s assurance was the first sign that Washington might acknowledge Russia’s security concerns. Indeed, Biden addressed a key issue in at least five of the eight articles of the Russian draft treaty given to the U.S. on Dec. 17, 2021. Russian rejoicing, however, was short-lived.

  There has remained much speculation over whether the two leaders’ respective translators were actually also carrying the ‘nuclear footballs’ while in Harbin:

  Putin and Xi have been shadowed the entire visit by their respective guys presumably lugging their nuclear footballs. I think this is a new look for Russia and China. The message sent is about as heavy as it gets. https://t.co/adSDnSMoJy

  — Jeff Wells (@JeffWellsRigInt) May 16, 2024

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  Foreign Minister Lavrov revealed last month that when he met Antony Blinken in Geneva in January 2022, the U.S. secretary of state pretended he’d not heard of Biden’s undertaking to Putin on Dec. 30, 2021. Rather, Blinken insisted that U.S. medium-range missiles could be deployed in Ukraine, and only that the U.S. might be willing to limit their number, Lavrov said.

  The Mother of All Miscalculations

  When Biden took office in 2021, his advisers assured him that he could play on Russia’s fear (sic) of China and drive a wedge between them. This became embarrassingly clear when Biden indicated what he had told Putin during their Geneva summit on June 16, 2021.

  That meeting gave Putin confirmation that Biden and his advisers were stuck in a woefully outdated appraisal of Russia-China relations.

  Read the rest at Consortium News

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 05/18/2024 – 19:50

• Bill Maher Scolds Pearl-Clutching Lefties Over Harrison Butker Tradwife Speech
  Bill Maher Scolds Pearl-Clutching Lefties Over Harrison Butker Tradwife Speech

  90s Democrat Bill Maher has come to the defense of Kansas City Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker over a recent graduation speech in which he said that one of the “most important” jobs a woman can have is being a homemaker.

  

  “How many of you are sitting here now, about to cross this stage, and are thinking about all the promotions and titles you are going to get in your career? Some of you may go on to lead successful careers in the world. But I would venture to guess that the majority of you are most excited about your marriage and the children you will bring into this world,” Butker told graduates at Benedictine College last weekend.

  The NFL just condemned this speech by Super Bowl champion Harrison Butker.

  They 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 don’t want people to hear it.

  It would be a shame if you make it viral. pic.twitter.com/gKy7wJsqpu

  — End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) May 16, 2024

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  Butker’s speech resulted in a collective gasp from the left, which has spent decades programming young women to believe that becoming a housewife is tantamount to failure, and that real women become titans of industry – delegating the raising of children to others, or hitting peak girlboss and simply not reproducing (and definitely not grappling with deep regret as their eggs expire).

  For example, these assholes:

  

  And so, coming to Butker’s defense is “Real Time” host Bill Maher, who says he doesn’t see “what the big crime is.”

  During a Friday night panel discussion, Maher mocked Butker’s critics for trying to make him out to be “history’s greatest monster.”

  “I can’t express how much this guy is not like me,” said Maher. “He’s religious. He loves marriage. He loves kids… And he’s now history’s greatest monster.”

  “Again, I don’t agree with much with this guy, but I don’t get the thing. He said… ‘Some of you may go on to lead successful careers in the world.’ Ok, that seems fairly, like, modern. ‘But I would venture to guess that the majority of you are most excited about your marriage and the children you will bring into this world.’ I don’t see what the big crime is. I really don’t,” Maher continued.

  “And I think this is part of the problem people have with the left is that lots of people in this country are like this. Like he’s saying some of you may go on to lead successful careers, but a lot of you are excited about this other way that people- everybody used to be. And now can’t that be a choice too?“

  “And I feel like they feel very put upon, like there’s only one way to be a good person and that’s to get an advanced degree from one of those a– h–e factories like Harvard,” Maher continued.

  Watch:

  Bill Maher Drops Unexpected Bomb on Left’s Outrage for Harrison Butker’s Speech

  “I don’t see what the big crime is.”

  “I really don’t. And I think this is part of the problem people have with the left is… pic.twitter.com/d43KlyZJZC

  — The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) May 18, 2024

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  Basically…

  Presented without comment. pic.twitter.com/9J8aeArVc2

  — Mollie (@MZHemingway) May 17, 2024

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  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 05/18/2024 – 19:15

• Why Did The US Spend $320 Million On A Rube Goldberg Pier For Gaza?
  Why Did The US Spend $320 Million On A Rube Goldberg Pier For Gaza?

  Authored by Ann Wright via CommonDreams.org,

  Instead of U.S. President Joe Biden marking a red line in the sand demanding that Israel allow aid into Gaza via ground transportation, his inept diplomatic team sent out a plea for help to the U.S. military.

  

  While in the U.S. Army and Army Reserves for 29 years, I thought I had seen some pretty stupid things the military was told by politicians to do. It always begins with politicians deciding the easiest, most sensible solution to a problem would have too much political baggage and cost them votes in the next election. So, they look for a politically expedient solution, one that is invariably very expensive and convoluted.

  Attempting a Military Solution for a Political or Diplomat Problem—AGAIN!!!

  In this vein, all too often, politicians turn to the U.S. military for a solution to a non-military problem. Then some A-type personality in the military presents a hair-brained idea to the politicians, probably never thinking that the idea would be accepted. Then it is accepted to get the politicians out of a jam, and the next thing you know is that the Rube Goldberg, crazy idea is being funded.

  This unbelievable scenario is what has happened with getting humanitarian aid into Gaza for the starving survivors of the Israeli genocide of Gaza. Instead of U.S. President Joe Biden marking a red line in the Israel/Gaza/Egypt sand demanding that Israel allow into Gaza the miles of tractor-trailer loads of food and medicine that have been stalled for months at the Rafah border crossing, Biden’s inept diplomatic team sent out a plea for help to the U.S. military.

  Palestinians in Gaza and citizens around the world will not forget that miles of supplies are just feet away from Gaza at the Rafah crossing and the U.S. will not use its pressure on Israel to open the gates at Rafah.

  And the U.S. military, always looking for validation of its immense “capabilities,” seized the opportunity to use one of its little-known assets—the Army’s Joint Logistics Over the Shore, or JLOTS, system that provides bridging and water access capabilities—to help out the failed U.S. diplomatic efforts to get the U.S.’s “strongest ally in the Middle East” to end the starvation of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians in Gaza by letting the massive truck convoys filled with food and medicines into Gaza.

  Normally used to move military equipment across rivers where bridges have been blown up—many times by the U.S. military itself—and sometimes to transfer military equipment from a ship onto shore, the U.S. Army’s small navy swung into action and began sailing to the Mediterranean in U.S. Army ships filled with barges that can be locked together to form landing docks and causeways.

  Rube Goldberg Complex of Construction and Transportation Ideas

  In a Rube Goldberg complex of construction and transportation ideas, the U.S. military anchored to the sea floor three miles off the northern coast of Gaza a floating dock system onto which large cargo ships can dock.

  Cargo ships will off-load pallets and possibly container loads of humanitarian assistance—long-life packaged food and medical supplies—on the three-mile off-shore dock. This cargo will have undergone inspection by Israeli authorities in the port of Larnaca, Cyprus, 200 miles from Gaza.

  The inspection process involves Cypriot customs, Israeli teams, the U.S., and the United Nations Office for Project Services. The U.S. Agency for International Development has set up a coordination cell in Cyprus.

  Two-thousand trucks to offload ONE ship driving 1,800 feet on a causeway that will be dangerously affected by tides, winds, and waves is a recipe for disaster.

  From the cargo ships, food and medical supplies will be transferred into the backs of U.S. Army trucks (probably 2.5-ton trucks) that have arrived on the floating pier brought there by two types of smaller Army boats—Logistic Support Vessels, or LSVs, and Landing Craft Utility boats (LCUs). LSVs can hold 15 trucks each and the LCUs about five.

  The loaded 2.5-ton trucks will be driven back onto the LSVs and motored three miles to the second floating pier system constructed by the U.S. military.

  The trucks will then be driven off the LSVs onto the second pier and down a two-lane, 1,800-foot (six U.S. football fields long) causeway anchored onto Gaza land by the Israeli military. The causeway will be anchored onto Gaza shores by the Israeli military because the U.S. military is forbidden to have “boots on the ground” in Gaza.

  The truckloads of food and medical supplies will then be driven somewhere… and supplies distributed by some organization… yet to be determined according to the latest news reports.

  The empty trucks will then be driven back along the two-lane, 1,800-foot causeway to the floating pier where they will be driven into the small LSVs, and the LSVs then sailed back three miles to the larger off-shore pier and the process begun again. The long causeway should be a cause of alarm for drivers, as the winds and waves so dramatically affected the construction of the causeway that most of the causeway was put together in the calm waters of Ashdod, an Israeli harbor, after winds and waves made construction of the causeway in place off Gaza impossible. Parts of the causeway are now being towed 20 miles from Ashdod harbor to northern Gaza to be linked into place.

  While Thousands of Truck Loads of Cargo Wait at the Rafah Border Crossing, It Will Take 2,000 Truck Loads to Empty Each 5,000 Ton Cargo Ship  

  if a large cargo ship has 5,000 tons of food and medical supplies to be off-loaded, and if each truck can hold 2.5 tons of cargo, it will take 2,000 trucks to take the cargo from one ship. If there are 15 trucks on each LSV, then the LSVs will have to make 133 trips to get the trucks to the 1,800 foot causeway.

  If the LCUs that hold only five trucks are mostly used, then it would take 400 trips to get the cargo to shore.

  Two-thousand trucks to offload ONE ship driving 1,800 feet on a causeway that will be dangerously affected by tides, winds, and waves is a recipe for disaster.

  

  A graphic, not to scale, showing how the aid delivery system will work. (Photo: Department of Defense)

  Will Israel Bomb the Docks, Piers, and Causeway? Remember the USS Liberty!

  The possibility of probability is high that Israeli military jets, drones, and artillery may “mistakenly” target the pier complex… or Hamas or other militant groups may decide that the U.S. complicity in the genocide of over 35,000 Palestinians in Gaza outweighs the meager food and medical supplies the U.S. is bringing into Gaza, which presents another aspect of the recipe for disaster for the U.S. Rube Goldberg pier.

  U.S. military personnel should remember the Israeli attack on a U.S. military ship, the USS Liberty. In 1967, the Israeli military bombed and torpedoed a U.S. ship off Gaza, killing 34 and wounding 171, and almost sunk the ship. The U.S. cover-up for its ally Israel’s brutal, lethal attack on a U.S. military ship continues to this day, as does the U.S. complicity in the Israeli genocide of Gaza.

  The World Will Not Forget

  Palestinians in Gaza and citizens around the world will not forget that miles of supplies are just feet away from Gaza at the Rafah crossing and the U.S. will not use its pressure on Israel to open the gates at Rafah, instead offering an expensive, idiotic solution to an easily solvable problem.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 05/18/2024 – 18:40

• Sternlicht's Starwood REIT Running Low On Cash As Redemptions Soar Amid CRE Storm 
  Sternlicht’s Starwood REIT Running Low On Cash As Redemptions Soar Amid CRE Storm 

  Starwood Real Estate Income Trust (SREIT), a $10 billion non-traded REIT ranked second-largest behind Blackstone’s struggling BREIT, faces a severe liquidity crunch as investor redemptions soar amid concerns ‘higher for longer’ interest rates will worsen the commercial real estate storm. 

  The Financial Times reported at the end of last week that SREIT is “running low on liquidity as investors demand their money back” and tapped $1.3 billion of its $1.55 billion credit facility since the start of 2023.

  Redemptions have jumped among concerned investors. In the first quarter, SREIT investors requested $1.3 billion of their cash back. However, the fund only returned $500 million of the requests in the quarter because of a 5% redemption cap. 

  

  Now, Barry Sternlicht’s SREIT is in dire straits. The current pace of redemptions suggests the fund will run out of cash in the second half of the year unless it disposes of properties or expands its credit facility. The filing from last week shows the fund has $225 million left to draw down. 

  The outflows are similar to what happened to Blackstone’s BREIT over the last few years. At least now, BREIT has been able to meet 100% of its redemption requests for the first time since 2022, according to a notice issued by Blackstone to investors on March 1. 

  “Liquidity isn’t something that people think about on the way up, but it can become a concern suddenly,” Phil Bak, chief executive of Armada Investors, which invests in listed REITs. 

  

  Bak said, “When it comes to private REITs, liquidity concerns have been dismissed, and they will become paramount again.”

  FT spoke with an individual close to SREIT who said ‘greater liquidity’ is expected soon after asset sales. They said, “Starwood could sell other assets to raise cash.” 

  The REIT industry has been under severe pressure since Fed chair Powell began raising interest rates in early 2022. Tighter monetary conditions and higher interest rates for the medium term as inflation remains elevated have pressured CRE values of office towers. This has led to a 16% decline in SREIT’s declared net asset value from its peak in September 2022 at nearly $10 billion. 

  For the CRE industry, Goldman’s Lotfi Karoui outlined days ago that the highest share of CRE loans on record will hit maturity walls in the next two years. 

  

  Almost a trillion of CRE mortgages must be paid down, refinanced, or extended by the end of 2024.

  

  The problem is that the Fed’s rate cut cycle has been pushed out to at least the fall. Interest-rate swaps on Friday showed traders pricing about two quarter-point rate cuts by year-end, with about an 80% chance the first one will come in September. 

  

  Between SREIT and BREIT, the smart money has been panic-running for the exit door. Redemption caps have saved these non-traded REITs from totally imploding. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 05/18/2024 – 18:05

• Nickel Prices Log Best Week In Over A Year As Riots In New Caledonia Spark Supply Concerns
  Nickel Prices Log Best Week In Over A Year As Riots In New Caledonia Spark Supply Concerns

  Nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange just had their best week in nearly a year and a half. The surge comes as social unrest rocks New Caledonia. A new report highlighted last week about surging demand for base metals driven by the clean energy push, as well as central bankers hinting at interest rate cuts. This has fueled an upswing in nickel prices and commodity prices. 

  Let’s begin with the unrest and riots that have gripped the French Pacific territory of New Caledonia. Additional French troops, including elite security forces, are en route to help authorities restore order. We outlined the latest on the riots in a note titled “France Blames Deadly New Caledonia Uprising On TikTok” on Friday morning. 

  This note will be commodity-centric and focus mainly on the nickel market. Last year, New Caledonia was the world’s third-biggest producer of the battery metal. The tiny Pacific island accounted for 6% of global output, according to the US Geological Survey.

  So far, French miner Eramet SA’s output in the country has been disrupted, and it is currently operating at minimum capacity. This news helped propel nickel futures trading on the London Metal Exchange to its best trading week since early December 2022, rising a little more than 11%. 

  

  Nickel futures are trading at $20,880 a ton, or about the highest level since September 2023. 

  

  “We have seen these riots . . . If New Caledonia has an ongoing problem, then it is going to make a difference,” Dan Smith, an analyst at Amalgamated Metal Trading, a brokerage, told the Financial Times. He noted that traders had been”downbeat” on the nickel market in terms of being oversupplied and that this sudden price spike had caught traders off guard. 

  However, Smith said the “overwhelming consensus” among traders was that the nickel market was “badly oversupplied,” suggesting that the current rally would not last. “Demand is good for nickel [at the moment] but supply is even stronger,” he added.

  Ending the week was a report by the International Energy Agency that forecasted strong demand for nickel and other base metals critical for the transition to cleaner power grids as the powering up America and Europe theme takes off (read: “the Next AI Trade“). 

  “The world’s appetite for technologies such as solar panels, electric cars and batteries is growing fast . . . but we cannot satisfy it without reliable and expanding supplies of critical minerals,” said IEA executive director Fatih Birol.

  Rising nickel prices come as a massive dislocation of physical copper has sparked a squeeze in prices in New York. 

  

  The Bloomberg Industrial Metal Subindex has soared. 

  

  Spot commodity prices tracked by Bloomberg are also surging. 

  

  Jeff Currie might be right about an emerging commodity supercycle. And, of course, high commodity prices are bad news for Fed Powell’s inflation fight. 

  

  All of this chaos is happening as the world splinters into a multi-polar state, an indication commodity prices will remain elevated. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 05/18/2024 – 16:55

• Billionaires Funding Protests Donate Millions To House Dems
  Billionaires Funding Protests Donate Millions To House Dems

  Authored by Susan Crabtree via RealClearPolitics.com,

  For President Biden and congressional Democrats, the fierce party division over the campus protests and the war in Gaza is full of warning signs during the 2024 election year. The unrest is unlikely to stop when universities break for the summer; protesters are pledging to disrupt the August Democratic National Convention planned to be held in Chicago. 

  Most House Democrats have been reticent on the antisemitic protests and encampments roiling college graduations this month, while a handful have vocally defended or even celebrated the student protests as displays of protected free speech. 

  Rep. Ilhan Omar, a Minnesota Democrat, said she was proud of her daughter, a Barnard College student who was suspended for participating in illegal protests and who was among 100 people arrested after demonstrations at Columbia University in April. Throughout the months of campus protests, members of the progressive “squad,” Reps. Rashida Tlaib of Michigan and Cori Bush of Missouri have applauded “courageous” anti-Israel student protestors while condemning efforts by university administrators and police to dismantle the encampments. 

  A RealClearPolitics analysis of Federal Election Commission data shows one possible reason most Democrats are trying to avoid the campus fray: House Democrats’ reelection campaigns have accepted $6.5 million from three major political families, which have helped bankroll several student groups participating in the protests. The family members cut most of those checks over the last two years, although some of the donations to longstanding House members came over the last decade.

  

  The names are well-known among Democratic funding circles: Soros, Rockefeller, and Pritzker. Yet before the anti-Jewish protests swept college campuses over the last few months, their financial ties to the student groups were not widely known. Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, a member of the same wealthy Pritzker family, is not among the donors. 

  Several investigative media reports over the last month have uncovered the extensive financial ties between these families and student groups involved in organizing anti-Israel protests and activism across the country predating the Oct. 7 Hamas terrorist attacks on Israel and in its aftermath and during Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza. 

  The donors to student groups include George Soros, a billionaire philanthropist and Democratic campaign contributor who helms the Open Society Foundation and his family members; the Pritzkers, the owners of Hyatt Hotels Corporation; and members of the famed Rockefeller family, including relatives of the wealthy American Banker and philanthropist David Rockefeller. The donations have either gone directly to student groups involved in campus demonstrations or to umbrella foundations and organizations, which have, in turn, channeled the funds to the protestors. 

  The House Democratic Congressional Committee and the House Majority PAC, which was founded by former Speaker Nancy Pelosi and is directly affiliated with the House Democratic leadership, collected most of those funds, nearly $5.5 million by those two Democratic campaign entities alone, FEC records show. 

  Meanwhile, 30 House Democrats, including Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries and other members of the leadership, received a combined total of $856,858 from the Soros, Pritzker, and Rockefeller families, while a dozen Democratic candidates in competitive races received a total of $139,000. RCP did not examine Senate recipients. 

  The House members in competitive races who received funds from at least one of the three families include Reps. Mary Peltola of Alaska, Mike Levin of California, Yadira Caraveo of Colorado, Johana Hayes of Connecticut, Eric Sorensen of Illinois, Frank Mrvan of Indiana, Sharice Davids, Jared Golden, Hillary Scholten, Angie Craig of Minnesota, Don Davis, Chris Pappas of New Hampshire, Gabe Vasquez, of New Mexico, Susie Lee of Nevada, Steven Horsford of Nevada, Paty Ryan of New York, Marcy Kaptur of Ohio, Andrea Salinas of Oregon, Susan Wild of Pennsylvania, and Matt Cartwright of Pennsylvania. 

  Craig’s campaigns have received the most of any other House member from the three families: $96,490 since 2018. Lee’s campaign received the second most: $75,000 since 2017. 

  The Democratic candidates who accepted donations from at least one of the three families include Kirsten Engel in Arizona; Adam Gray, Rudy Salas, George Whitesides, and Will Rollins in California; Lanon Baccam in Iowa; Tony Vargas in Nebraska; Lauren Gillen, Mondaire Jones, and Josh Riley in New York; Ashley Ehasz in Pennsylvania; and Michelle Vallejo in Texas.

  Neither the DCCC nor any of the House members and candidates responded to RealClearPolitics’ questions about whether they had any concerns about the financial ties between the Soros, Pritzker, and Rockefeller families to these student groups. 

  Several organizations have played key roles in pro-Palestinian student activism and protests and have received donations from Soros, Pritzker, and Rockefeller family members. The U.S. Campaign for Palestinian Rights, a pro-Palestinian advocacy group, has received at least $700,000 in Open Society Foundation grants since 2018 and $355,000 from the Rockefeller Brothers since 2019. 

  In 2023, the USCPR had three fellows – Nidaa Lafi, Craig Birckhead-Morton, and Malak Afaneh – all of whom have figured prominently in the nationwide protests, the New York Post reported in late April. The group provides up to $7,800 for its community-based fellows and between $2,880 and $3,660 for its campus-based fellows for spending at least eight hours a week organizing campaigns led by Palestinian organizations.

  While all were involved in student protests over the last several months, the University of California at Berkeley’s Afanah, co-president of Law Students for Justice in Palestine, made the most headlines. Afanah commandeered a microphone during a graduation dinner at the law school dean’s home to speak out against Israel’s war in Gaza. She claimed a First Amendment right to disrupt the gathering and then accused the dean’s wife of assaulting her when she forcefully asked her to leave. 

  The Open Society Foundations defended its funding of these groups and their right to “peacefully protest” in an April 26 X.com post. 

  “We have a long history of fighting antisemitism, Islamophobia, and all forms of racism and hate, and have advocated for the rights of Palestinians and Israelis and for peaceful resolution to the conflict in Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories,” the Foundations said. 

  “Our funding is a matter of public record, disclosed on our website, fully compliant with U.S. laws, and is part of our commitment to continuing open debate that is ultimately the only hope for peace in the region,” the organization asserted. 

  Jewish Voice for Peace and IfNotNow are two additional organizations deeply involved in the student protests and backed by the Tides Foundations, which is Soros-funded. Jewish Voice for Peace, which openly describes itself as anti-Zionist, has also received $500,000 in funds from the Rockefeller Brothers Fund over the last five years. David Rockefeller Jr. sits on the Rockefeller Brothers’ board. The group has separately provided grants to both the Tides Foundation and the Tides Center, as Politico reported in early May. 

  The Pritzkers founded the Libra Foundation, which seeds smaller nonprofits, many of which have participated in pro-Palestinian marches, according to the same Politico report. One of them is the Climate Justice Alliance, which has labeled President Biden “Genocide Joe” for his handling of Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza. 

  Others benefitting from Pritzker largesse include Black Organizing for Leadership and Dignity, which has helped promote anti-Israel protests, and the Immigrant Defense Project, which participated in a protest in D.C. earlier this year in which police arrested a number of participants. The Pritzkers also help financially support the Tides Foundation, which funds other small left-wing groups, including Adalah Justice Project, a prominent participant in the Columbia University protests and encampment, which police disbanded in early May. 

  House Republicans have launched multiple investigations into the funding of the campus protests and encampments. Earlier this week, the chairs of two GOP-led House committees, the Education and the Workforce and the House Oversight and Accountability panels, sent Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen a letter requesting all suspicious activity reports, or SARs, connected to 20 organizations that have reportedly led, financed, and participated in the antisemitic protests on college campuses. SARs are documents that financial institutions and other professionals file with the Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network to flag law enforcement to potential instances of money laundering or terrorist financing. 

  “It’s no coincidence that the day after the October 7 Hamas terrorist attack, antisemitic mobs began springing up on college campuses across the country,” Rep. Virginia Foxx, who chairs the Education and the Workforce Committee, said in a statement.

   “These protests have been coordinated and well-organized, indicating that outside groups or influences may be at play. American education is under attack. It’s critical that Congress investigates how these groups, who are tearing apart our institutions, are being funded before it’s too late.” 

  House Oversight Chairman James Comer pledged that his committee would follow the money trail and stressed that the antisemitism “thriving” on many college campuses “must not go unchecked.” 

  Topping the list that Foxx and Comer sent Yellen is Students for Justice in Palestine, or SJP, which has close ties to several anti-Israel organizations. After the Oct. 7 attacks, Students for Justice in Palestine’s national steering committee distributed a “tool kit” for activists that proclaimed, “glory to our resistance” and included a template for an advertisement showing protesters beneath a Palestinian flag. The image contained a paraglider, an apparent tribute to Hamas’ use of paragliders who slaughtered 360 youthful concert-goers, raped others, and took 44 people hostage during the Oct. 7 attack. That tool kit drew criticism from the Anti-Defamation League, which accused it of “celebrating terrorism.” 

  Students for Palestine has since been banned or suspended by Brandeis, Columbia, and George Washington University, among other colleges and universities. During his presidential campaign, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis banned the group from state campuses, referring to their alleged ties to Hamas.

  “We had a group of Students for Justice in Palestine,” DeSantis said. 

  “They claimed solidarity with Hamas. We deactivated them. We were not going to use tax dollars to fund jihad.”

  A 2016 report from the Cohen Center for Modern Jewish Studies at Brandeis stated that having a chapter on campus is “one of the strongest predictors of perceiving a hostile climate toward Israel and Jews.” 

  The Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Jonathan Schanzer, a former Treasury official responsible for designating numerous terrorist financiers, said his organization has been watching the financial network behind Students for Justice in Palestine for several years. The group, he said, has an umbrella organization known as Americans Muslims for Palestine, or AMP, a nonprofit that was previously based in Chicago but more recently moved to Falls Church, Virginia. For the last several years, AMP has been embroiled in litigation, accusing it of being an “alter-ego” or shell organization for the Islamic Association for Palestine, or IAP, a disbanded organization linked to Hamas. 

  In 2023, Schanzer testified before the House Ways and Means Committee that IAP had received numerous checks and deposited them into Hamas’ bank account, information uncovered during the litigation. In some cases, the deposits included the memo line “for Palestinian martyrs only,” Schanzer noted. 

  Hatem Bazian, AMP’s founder, was a frequent speaker at IAP forums, and Osama Abuirshaid, who edited IAP’s newspaper, is now AMP’s executive director, Schanzer said. In addition, Abuirshaid has published articles in English and Arabic praising Hamas, noting in them that he has communicated with Hamas leader Mousa Abu Marzook. 

  AMP created Students for Justice in Palestine, which started with just a handful of schools and has now expanded to 200 U.S. campuses with chapters. The group is a loosely connected network of autonomous chapters with no named leader. The structure allows it to avoid registering as a nonprofit and filing tax documents. Bazian, who founded the first chapter 30 years ago at the University of California at Berkeley, has described the student organization as “a symbolic franchise without a franchise fee.” 

  Bazian, who is now the chairman of American Muslims for Palestine’s board and a lecturer at Berkeley, has downplayed its ties to the student organization. He says AMP has only provided printed materials and offered grants for students to attend conferences or host speakers but has no supervisory role or control over the Students for Justice in Palestine. 

  Schanzer, however, strongly disagrees. While he stresses that FDD has not produced any evidence of present criminal wrongdoing implicating AMP, he argues that AMP and its organizers deserve intense scrutiny from members of Congress. AMP, he said, has, over the last two decades, provided checks to students at Northwestern, DePaul, and Loyola universities, among others. 

  Last year, Bazian curiously criticized CNN’s Jake Tapper’s “racist” coverage of Rep. Tlaib, arguing in a post from his own X.com account that, “As Jews who believe in human rights and justice, we demand you do better.” Schanzer notes that Bazian is Muslim, not Jewish, and the tweet has led to suspicion that Bazian thought he was logged into Jewish Voice for Peace’s account but mistakenly tweeted from his personal account. 

  Nine Americans and Israeli survivors and victims of the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks are suing AMP and Students for Justice in Palestine, alleging that groups collaborated with Hamas to legitimize the Hamas attacks and provide public relations services for the terrorist organization. Meanwhile, the University of Florida chapter of Students for Justice in Palestine sued the state, challenging the Chancellor of the State University System’s order to state universities to deactivate the student group. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 05/18/2024 – 16:20

• Ukraine Launched Its Largest-Ever Drone Attack On Russia While Putin Was In China
  Ukraine Launched Its Largest-Ever Drone Attack On Russia While Putin Was In China

  In what appears an intentionally-timed message, Ukraine’s military launched its largest-ever drone attack on Russian territory while President Putin was visiting China where he held two days of meetings with Xi Jinping.

  “Fifty-one UAVs were destroyed and intercepted over Crimea, 44 over the Krasnodar region, six over the Belgorod region and one over Kursk region,” Russia’s defense ministry announced of the Friday attack.

  This means well over 100 kamikaze drones were sent across several regions, particularly around Belgorod and the Black Sea. Given the Kremlin is claiming its forces intercepted that amount, the total number of UAVs deployed across the border was likely far and above that figure, perhaps even double, as clearly some made it through anti-air defenses.

  

  “Belgorod Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said a mother and child were killed while traveling in a car, and authorities managed to extinguish the fire at the Tuapse refinery,” as cited in Fox News. “The child was in critical condition. Doctors did everything possible to save him,” Gladkov said.

  Sevastopol was forced to cancel all schools and classes, and to close public buildings, and there was confirmation of damage there.

  Ukraine is apparently seeking to retaliate for Russia’s ongoing major Kharkiv offensive, while Putin has linked the new Russian operation to push deeper into the northeast sector of Ukraine with pro-Kiev forces’ constant cross-border drone attacks and shelling.

  Dozens of Russians have been killed and wounded in Belgorod over the last several months. When asked about the worsening situation, Putin told a press briefing in Harbin, China on Friday that “what is happening on the Kharkiv front is their own fault.”

  Referencing places like Belgorod city, Putin says “Civilians are dying there” – explaining that “It’s obvious… they are shooting directly at the city center, at residential areas. And I said publicly that if this continues, we will be forced to create a security zone, a buffer zone. That is what we are doing.”

  Russian media has reported that the aim is to establish this buffer zone at least 10km within Ukrainian territory, making it more difficult for Ukraine forces to shell Russian villages and cities. According to more of Moscow’s intentions in the region via Russian state media:

  Russia has no intention of capturing the Ukrainian city of Kharkov, which is close to the Russian border, President Vladimir Putin has said. Moscow’s forces have been making notable gains in the area in recent days.

  Speaking to reporters at the Harbin Institute of Technology during his two-day visit to China, Putin commented on Russia’s operations in Kharkov Region, asserting that Moscow is achieving success on the battlefield by acting “strictly according to plan.”

  Also on Friday Ukraine’s President Zelensky warned the public that Russia’s summer assault “could consist of several waves. There was the first wave” in the Kharkiv region, and that the country should brace for more.

  Zelensky is meanwhile still claiming his goal is still the “liberation of Crimea”…

  “Zelensky said that after deoccupation, Crimea will become one of the best places to live in Europe: “It will definitely be – when the power of our resilience, our weapons, our diplomacy and the power of justice for Ukraine will ensure the liberation of Crimea from occupation.… pic.twitter.com/mtWnJLLWGp

  — Ivan Katchanovski (@I_Katchanovski) May 18, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  There has lately been widespread media acknowledgement that Ukrainian lines are being pushed back rapidly, and Ukraine officials including Zelensky have lashed out at Western allies for a significant delay in weapons and ammo.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 05/18/2024 – 15:45

• US Focused On Hunting Down Hamas Chief Yahya Sinwar, In Bid To End War
  US Focused On Hunting Down Hamas Chief Yahya Sinwar, In Bid To End War

  Via Middle East Eye

  The United States is focused on tracking down Hamas’s Gaza chief, Yahya Sinwar, amid a new push by the White House to help Israel declare “total victory” so it can bring an end to the war in Gaza, US officials have told Middle East Eye. Current and former US officials, who spoke with MEE on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the mission, said the US was expanding its search efforts across the region, after believing the 61-year-old was hiding in tunnels deep below Gaza.

  A US official, speaking on condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to speak to the media, told MEE that the Biden administration is now exploring possibilities that Sinwar fled to Egypt’s Sinai peninsula, and from there may have even escaped to either Lebanon or Syria. 

  

  The White House referred MEE to comments from US national security advisor Jake Sullivan earlier this week, that he wouldn’t comment on intelligence about Sinwar. The current and former officials did not reference any specific intelligence but said one factor driving the debate was that US intelligence was lagging on Sinwar’s last whereabouts. 

  According to the officials, the Biden administration is roughly one month behind on tracking Sinwar’s last known location, which was within the Gaza Strip. 

  Bruce Riedel, a former CIA official who also advised four US presidents on national security, told MEE that the lack of clarity surrounding Sinwar’s last location was “pretty bad.” When asked about the timeframe, he said: “One month means you aren’t even close to real-time information.”

  Last month, a Hamas official said that Sinwar had visited combat zones above ground and had held deliberations with the group’s leadership abroad. 

  Speaking to the pan-Arab news outlet Al-Arabi Al-Jadeed (or The New Arab), the Hamas official said Sinwar was not always staying in tunnels, as claimed by Israel, but also performing his duties in the field. MEE could not independently verify the reports on his whereabouts. 

  Tracking Sinwar has taken on a new urgency within the US intelligence community because the Biden administration believes it could help pressure Israel to end the war by declaring victory, the officials said.

  US President Joe Biden alluded to that strategy last week when he told CNN: “I said to Bibi (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu), ‘Don’t make the same mistake we made in America. We wanted to get bin Laden. We’ll help you get Sinwar’.”

  The parallel between hunting Sinwar and al-Qaeda chief Osama Bin Laden underlines the extreme difficulty the US and Israel face trying to find Sinwar. The hunt for Bin Laden took ten years, and when he was located, he was in Pakistan, roughly one kilometre away from a military academy of the US’s counterterrorism ally.

  According to the officials, Washington wants to focus Israel’s energy on finding key Hamas leaders such as Sinwar and Mohammad Deif, the head of the al-Qassam Brigades, as a way to avert a wider full-scale assault on Rafah.

  The Biden administration, which continues to provide Israel with military and intelligence support, has said it would withhold offensive arms from Israel if it attacks “population centrers”, referring to Rafah, the southern Gaza border city which currently houses around 1.4 million displaced Palestinians.

  On Sunday, The New York Times reported that US officials believed Sinwar was not in Rafah but likely remains in Khan Younis, a city that Israeli forces laid siege to between December and April. Sinwar himself previously bragged in 2021 that there were 310 miles of tunnels in the Gaza Strip.

  A former US intelligence official familiar with Hamas told MEE that one of Sinwar’s brothers, Mohammad, oversaw tunnel construction between Sinai and Gaza and has deep ties to smuggling networks in Sinai, a factor that could aid Sinwar’s escape. 

  William Usher, a former senior Middle East analyst at the CIA, told MEE, “Right up until 7 October, Hamas had pretty unimpeded access to the tunnel network. They had contingency plans to put key leaders out of harm’s way,” he said. “In the past, Hamas went to Lebanon, Syria and even Iran,” Usher said. “It wouldn’t shock me if Sinwar was hiding there.”

  HAMAS LEADER ISMAIL HANIYEH SAYS
  “WE MUST UNITE AGAINST ISRAEL”

  He emphasized unity in the struggle against their common adversary. pic.twitter.com/PpT6Djda2w

  — Sulaiman Ahmed (@ShaykhSulaiman) May 16, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  US boosts intelligence-sharing with Israel

  On Monday, The Washington Post reported that the US was offering Israel new intelligence to help track Hamas leaders in exchange for Israel not launching the assault on Rafah.

  That report was carried by some Israeli news outlets under the title: US withholding “sensitive intelligence” on Hamas from Israel. However, several current and former US and Arab diplomats, as well as defence and intelligence officials, told MEE it was highly unlikely the US would withhold information on Hamas from Israel.

  In January, The New York Times reported that US national security advisor Jake Sullivan ordered the creation of a new task force to collect information on senior Hamas leaders and the location of hostages in Gaza, and share that intelligence with Israel.

  One of the main challenges for the US is that it paid little attention to Hamas in the lead-up to 7 October, analysts and former US officials said. The Palestinian movement is a designated terrorist organisation by the US, but whilst it was boxed into ruling the impoverished Gaza Strip, it was never considered a major threat to the US.

  The last time the US faced a major security threat in Gaza was in 2003, when a US diplomatic convoy was bombed there, killing three Americans. “The US depends on Israel to a large extent to share intelligence with us on what’s happening in Gaza because it has historically been their priority,” Usher said.

  The US officials said that the Biden administration had accelerated intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) coordination with Israel. Meanwhile, a former US official said that Israel would be particularly interested in tapping into the US’s geospatial intelligence capabilities.

  Leverage over talks

  One of the routes the US is exploring to track Sinwar is the ceasefire talks, the sources said. While the face-to-face negotiators on Hamas’s behalf are the political leaders based in Qatar, Sinwar is widely believed to have the final say on any agreement, as the group holds captives in Gaza and exercises control over military units.

  Current and former Arab and US officials told MEE that Sinwar is probably relying on a circuitous network of couriers and potentially messaging apps to communicate with Hamas officials abroad. “If he was using a mobile phone, he’d be dead already,” Riedel told MEE.

  An Arab official familiar with Hamas told MEE that the group has had years of experience learning to cloak its communication during previous wars with Israel. “This is a guy from a different generation who is used to communicating off the grid,” the official said.

  According to US officials, whilst Algeria and Turkey also maintain dialogue with Hamas, Washington is leaning on Egypt to rule out whether Sinwar fled to Sinai. Egypt’s military intelligence talks directly to Hamas’s armed wing, giving them better access to Hamas than any of Washington’s other Arab partners. 

  The current and former US and Arab officials told MEE that if Sinwar fled the Gaza Strip, it could be a blow to Hamas’s morale. Although he has been described as “prepared to die in Gaza”, one US official said that Hamas’s endurance on the battlefield after seven months may be impacting his decision-making.

  “He might want to reconstitute for Hamas 3.0,” the US official said. Despite the US effort, some doubt that killing Sinwar would be enough for the US to press Israel into a ceasefire agreement.

  Jonathan Panikoff, the director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council, told MEE, “killing Sinwar might be sufficient for the US to decide its time for Israel to declare victory and move on, but it’s not clear that it would be sufficient for Netanyahu’s political survival”.

  “Ultranationalists like Ben Gvir and Smotrich will likely still demand a military operation in Rafah.” MEE also reached out to Syria’s UN mission in New York, and Lebanon and Egypt’s embassies in Washington DC for comment on Sinwar’s whereabouts, but didn’t receive a reply by the time of publication. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 05/18/2024 – 15:10

• White House Reacts To Ultra-Rare Putin-Xi Hug During Visit Highlighting Closer Military Ties
  White House Reacts To Ultra-Rare Putin-Xi Hug During Visit Highlighting Closer Military Ties

  The Biden administration has reacted to what might be called the hug heard around the world (or ‘felt’ perhaps). During the last day of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s two-day visit to China where he met with President Xi Jinping, the two shared an ultra-rare embrace in host city for the visit Harbin.

  During the two leaders’ final ‘goodbye’ interaction, it was Xi who appeared to initiate the hug. One regional expert, Arnaud Bertrand, has commented “It is indeed incredibly uncommon to hug in Chinese culture, especially for senior officials, which is why you can see Putin is taken aback at first.”

  Xi Jinping hugged Vladimir Putin. Heads are exploding in America’s Deep State.

  The multipolar world is here.pic.twitter.com/rIKW166OIh

  — Danny Haiphong (@SpiritofHo) May 17, 2024

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  White House national security communications adviser John Kirby weighed in later in the day Friday, saying somewhat sarcastically, “That’s nice for them.” 

  Kirby went on to say that it’s “no surprise” that Putin and Xi “continue to try to develop this burgeoning relationship” but that that it remains officials in both governments “aren’t necessarily all that trustful” of each other, according to the remarks.

  “What they have in common is a desire to challenge the international rules-based order, challenge the network of alliances and partnerships that the United States enjoys,” Kirby followed with. He said the two are trying to “look for ways to bolster each other’s national security interests as well.”

  However, there have been exceptions when it comes to the diplomatic past and Xi has hugged Western leaders at times too…

  Actually, this is very common these days. In 2019, Xi and Macron hug each other in Shanghai.
  In Xi’s latest state visit to France, Macron hug Xi before Xi climbed the steps to his plane. pic.twitter.com/bPHEvZ7fxI

  — Shen Shiwei 沈诗伟 (@shen_shiwei) May 17, 2024

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  And an analyst quoted in the NY Times saw it as an expression of “disdain” aimed at Washington. “Xi’s very deliberate embrace of Putin for the cameras wasn’t just to emphasize the closeness of the political relationship between the two countries and their leaders,” said Richard McGregor of the East Asia at the Lowy Institute in Sydney.

  “There was also a touch of disdain directed at Washington, which has been pressuring Beijing to withdraw support from Moscow. That clearly isn’t going to happen in any substantive fashion.”

  The visit culminated in a joint statement pledging deepened cooperation in sectors that include energy, the military, and space.

  🇷🇺🇪🇺🇺🇸 US sanctions European partners, it’s what they do – Putin

  “The Europeans swallow it up, once again confirming that they are vassals of America,” pic.twitter.com/TxjFqc46nY

  — DD Geopolitics (@DD_Geopolitics) May 17, 2024

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  As for questions surrounding reports that Putin is favorable to China’s vision for a roadmap to peace in Ukraine, Putin was quoted as saying in Xinhua, “We have never refused to negotiate. We are seeking a comprehensive, sustainable and just settlement of this conflict through peaceful means,”

  “We are open to a dialogue on Ukraine, but such negotiations must take into account the interests of all countries involved in the conflict, including ours,” he continued. Putin said he informed the Chinese leader in detail about “the situation in Ukraine” and added, “We are grateful for the initiative of our Chinese colleagues and friends to regulate the situation.”

  The city of Harbin was apparently chosen in part as it has Russian cultural roots…

  Putin visits Orthodox Church in Harbin, China pic.twitter.com/NberFgPyG0

  — RT (@RT_com) May 17, 2024

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  Xi had said during the visit, “Both sides agree that a political settlement of the Ukraine crisis is the correct direction.” And further “China’s position on this issue has been consistent and clear, including … the respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries and the legitimate security concerns of all parties.”

  The Pentagon meanwhile took the opportunity to issue a fresh warning to China, with Ely Ratner, assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, he communicated to a Chinese military official “serious concern over the [Peoples Republic of China’s] support for Russia’s defense industrial base that enables Russia’s war in Ukraine.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 05/18/2024 – 14:35

• Expect More Inflation No Matter Who Wins The Election
  Expect More Inflation No Matter Who Wins The Election

  Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

  For many reasons, the Fed will struggle to contain inflation. This is part one on the Fed’s struggle. It covers deficit spending and interest on the debt.

  

  Key Points

  • The government is running a cumulative deficit of $1.1 trillion so far in FY2024 ($46 billion more than the same period in the prior fiscal year when adjusted for timing shifts)

  • Revenues were $2.2 trillion through February

  • Outlays were $3.3 trillion through March

  The above is according to the Bipartisan Policy Organization.

  Those numbers do not include a $95 billion aid bill for Ukraine and Israel that recently passed Congress.

  The projections look worse.

  Revenue and Outlays Projections

  

  “As spending continues to outpace revenues, deficits will exceed $1.5 trillion (an average of 5.6% of GDP) in each of the next ten years. In comparison to May 2023’s budget outlook, deficits are projected to be a cumulative $1.4 trillion less over FY2024-2033.”

  This report as well as White House economic projections, and Congressional Budget Office projections are all too optimistic.

  Q: Why?
  A: None of them factor in a recession all the way through 2054.

  The Fed makes the same optimistic assumptions in its projections.

  Fed Summary of Economic Projections March 2024 vs December 2023

  

  Compared to December of 2023 the Fed upped its central tendency of GDP expectations, core inflation, and the expected Fed Funds Rate as noted in my March 20, assessment Fed’s Dot Plot is More Hawkish Towards Cuts in March vs. December

  The key points are the Fed assumes no recessions and the Fed assumes no matter what Congress does that it will hold inflation to two percent over the long term.

  In other words, the Fed assumes that it is in control when history suggests that it isn’t.

  The Fed has never forecast a recession, nor has the Fed spotted one in real time.

  The deficit is now over $34 trillion with debt held by the public at $27 trillion. Interest on the national debt is over $1 trillion.

  Money that would go for investment instead goes to bondholders.

  Neither party will fix deficit spending. Nor will the Fed.

  And it will get worse in the next recession. Unrestrained fiscal stimulus contributed to the mess we are in, and nothing suggests a policy change no matter who wins the election.

  In the past two decades, the Fed did have some favorable global factors that held down inflation. Those factors are gone. I will discuss the differences in my next segment.

  Meanwhile, please consider my question Dear Jerome Powell, Is Everything Under Control?

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 05/18/2024 – 14:00

• Texas Governor Pardons Daniel Perry, Veteran Who Shot Armed BLM Protester
  Texas Governor Pardons Daniel Perry, Veteran Who Shot Armed BLM Protester

  Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has pardoned former U.S. Army Sgt. Daniel Perry, who was convicted of murder and sentenced to 25 years in prison for shooting an armed Black Lives Matter (BLM) protester who wielded an AK-47.

  

  Mr. Abbott issued a proclamation on May 16 indicating that Mr. Perry has been granted a full pardon and restoration of full civil rights of citizenship, while taking aim at Travis County District Attorney Jose Garza for allegedly directing the lead investigator to withhold exculpatory evidence and demonstrating “unethical and biased misuse” of his office in prosecuting Mr. Perry.

  “Texas has one of the strongest ‘Stand Your Ground’ laws of self-defense that cannot be nullified by a jury or a progressive District Attorney,” Mr. Abbott said in a statement announcing the pardon. “I thank the Board for its thorough investigation, and I approve their pardon recommendation.”

  Earlier in the day, the Texas Board of Pardons and Paroles issued a pardon recommendation to the governor’s office, indicating in a statement that it had “delved into the intricacies” of Mr. Perry’s case, including reviewing police reports, court records, witness statements, and interviews with people linked to the case.

  “The Board voted unanimously to recommend a full pardon and restoration of firearm rights,” the board said in the statement.

  Mr. Garza’s office told The Epoch Times in an emailed statement that board’s decision and the governor’s pardon amount to a “mockery of our legal system.”

  “Their actions are contrary to the law and demonstrate that there are two classes of people in this state where some lives matter and some lives do not,” he said.

  More Details

  Mr. Perry was convicted on April 7, 2023, on murder charges for killing Garrett Foster on July 25, 2020, during a BLM protest in Austin, Texas.

  On the night of the shooting, Mr. Perry was working as a ride-share driver and had turned onto a street where Mr. Foster and dozens of other protesters were marching. After Mr. Foster approached Mr. Perry’s car carrying an AK-47 rifle and began to raise the rifle toward Mr. Perry, the former Army sergeant shot Mr. Foster, his attorneys said in his defense.

  Mr. Perry claimed self-defense, but prosecutors claimed he had maliciously driven into a crowd of protesters and that Mr. Foster had the right to approach him and investigate.

  Doug O’Connell, Mr. Perry’s attorney, said in a statement posted on social media that his client is grateful for the pardon and wishes “this tragic event never happened and wishes he never had to defend himself against Mr. Foster’s unlawful actions.”

  “He is thrilled and elated to be free,” Mr. O’Connell wrote, while criticizing the “courtroom travesty” that put him behind bars for what would have been over two decades.

  Mr. Perry served 372 days of his sentence before being freed, Mr. O’Connell said, while blaming Mr. Garza for tampering with witnesses during the case.

  Mr. Garza told The Epoch Times that the pardon sends a message to those Travis County community members who served on the grand jury that their service is meaningless.

  “To the family and friends of Garrett Foster, and to the people of Travis County, we will not stop fighting for justice,” Mr. Garza said.

  Background

  Mr. Perry, who was working as an Uber driver at the time of the shooting, traveled to Austin in July 2020 for work, according to a statement he provided through his attorneys.

  After dropping a client off, Mr. Perry drove his vehicle onto Congress Avenue and encountered the protest, which was blocking the road. His attorney said that Mr. Perry was unaware of the demonstration before encountering the group.

  “When Sgt. Perry turned on the Congress Avenue, several people started beating on his vehicle,” the statement said. “An individual carrying an assault rifle, now known to be Garrett Foster, quickly approached the car and then motioned with the assault rifle for Mr. Perry to lower his window.”

  Mr. Perry complied with the request, initially believing that Mr. Foster was with law enforcement.

  “It has now been confirmed by several witnesses that this individual with the assault rifle then began to raise the assault rifle toward Sgt. Perry,” his lawyer said in the statement. “It was only then that Sgt. Perry, who carried a handgun in his car for his own protection while driving strangers in the ride share program, fired on the person to protect his own life.”

  After Mr. Perry shot Mr. Foster, another person in the crowd began firing on Mr. Perry’s vehicle, prompting him to speed away and, after reaching a safe location, to call the police.

  Austin Police Chief Brian Manley told reporters after the shooting that people on the scene gave conflicting accounts of what happened, though he acknowledged that Mr. Foster may have pointed his gun at Mr. Perry.

  

  Prosecutors alleged that Mr. Perry had provoked the shooting by driving into the crowd of protesters.

  His attorneys argued that prosecutors withheld key evidence from the jury that suggested Mr. Foster was the aggressor. For instance, his attorneys sought to introduce evidence of three incidents that they said showed Mr. Foster had previously tried to intimidate cars on public streets.

  Mr. Perry’s lawyers also repeatedly tried to introduce into evidence a video recording of Mr. Foster, taken by a protester witness on the morning of July 25, 2020. The video showed that when Mr. Foster was asked if he felt like he’d need to use his AK-47, he said: “Na. I think the uh—I mean if I use it against the cops, I’m dead. I think all the people that hate us, and you know, wanna say [expletive] to us are too big of a [expletive] to stop and actually do anything about it.”

  According to Mr. Perry’s attorneys, the evidence showed that Mr. Foster and fellow protesters “routinely harassed vehicles that attempted to interfere with their efforts to ’take the streets.’”

  Texas law indicates that a person is justified in using force against someone when they “reasonably” believe it’s necessary to protect them against another’s use of unlawful force.

  The Board of Pardons and Paroles said in its May 16 statement that, after a “thorough review of the amassed information,” it concluded that Mr. Perry had acted lawfully and recommended he be pardoned.

  Mimi Nguyen-Ly and Zachary Stieber contributed to this report. This article has been updated with comments from Mr. Garza’s office.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 05/18/2024 – 12:50

• Ex-NIH Director Confirms 'No Science' Behind 6-Foot Distancing Rules
  Ex-NIH Director Confirms ‘No Science’ Behind 6-Foot Distancing Rules

  Newly released testimony from former NIH Director Dr. Francis Collins confirms that Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx did not base the pandemic-era six-foot social distancing rule on science, and instead were making things up as they went along.

  

  On Thursday, Rep. Brad Wenstrup (R-OH), chairman of the Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic, released a transcript from Collins’ January closed-door interview, in which he’s asked about a range of issues – including the lab-leak theory and the six-foot social distancing rule.

  “We asked Dr. Fauci where the six feet came from and he said it kind of just appeared, is the quote,” the majority counsel on the committee told Dr. Collins, per the transcript. “Do you recall science or evidence that supported the six-feet distance?“

  “I do not,” Collins replied.

  Counsel then asked, “Is that I do not recall or I do not see any evidence supporting six feet?”

  To which Collins replied “I did not see evidence, but I’m not sure I would have been shown evidence at that point.”

  “Since then, it has been an awfully large topic. Have you seen any evidence since then supporting six feet?” Counsel replied.

  “No,” said Collins.

  BREAKING.🚨@COVIDSelect releases testimony of Dr. Francis Collins, former NIH director who ran America’s Covid response.

  Highlights:
  • 6-feet social distancing made up
  • Wuhan lab leak not ‘conspiracy theory’
  • Fauci had agenda to discredit lab leak
  • Fauci lied
  • NIH… pic.twitter.com/ycFSZKrTQr

  — Kyle Becker (@kylenabecker) May 16, 2024

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  As the Epoch Times notes further, the remarks by Dr. Collins offer further indication that officials issuing guidelines at the height of the pandemic were, at least to some extent, making decisions that were not explicitly supported by scientific data.

  Various officials involved in crafting the U.S. pandemic response, including Dr. Fauci, have said that they were making good-faith decisions based on the available data at the time and that once new information emerged, they adjusted their recommendations accordingly.

  Major factor in the delay of reopening schools due to 6 ft rule

  American Federation of Teachers had it written in the contract

  “Our union had it in their contract. It’s literally why we didn’t reopen the whole year”

  h/t @LeslieBienen

  No one is criticizing Denmark anymore https://t.co/PmiOc9P0J7 pic.twitter.com/CUkYdv7Mf8

  — APBIOonly (@APBIOonly) May 17, 2024

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  Social Distancing In Focus

  As the COVID-19 outbreak spread in 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued guidance describing social distancing to include staying away from congregant settings, avoiding mass gatherings, and maintaining a distance of at least six feet from others when possible.

  The CDC’s latest guidance on respiratory virus infection prevention (updated on April 4, 2024) includes a section on physical distancing. It indicates that putting physical distance between oneself and others can help lower the risk of spreading a respiratory virus.

  “There is no single number that defines a ’safe’ distance, since spread of viruses can depend on many factors,” the guidance states, which comports with studies such as one from 2021 that concluded that the one-size-fits-all six-foot physical distancing rule is invalid.

  However, the CDC’s latest guidance for healthcare settings, updated on March 18, 2024, makes several references to six feet. For instance, it recommends that in dental facilities with open floor plans, one strategy to prevent the spread of COVID-19 is to ensure “at lest 6 feet of space between patient chairs.” It also defines “close contact” between individuals as “being within 6 feet for a cumulative total of 15 minutes or more over a 24-hour period with someone with SARS-CoV-2 infection.”

  New CDC Director Mandy Cohen recalls how she and her colleagues came up with COVID mandates during her time as NC Health Director.

  “She was like, are you gonna let them have professional football? And I was like, no. And she’s like, OK neither are we.”pic.twitter.com/0pZl3dL01D

  — Michael P Senger (@michaelpsenger) June 2, 2023

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  The Epoch Times has reached out to the CDC with a request for comment on Dr. Collins’s remarks and for clarification on what scientific basis the agency incorporated the six-foot figure into its COVID-19 prevention guidance.

  In March, the CDC also updated its guidance for people who test positive for COVID-19, telling them that they no longer need to isolate for five days.

  The updated guidance indicated that the threat from COVID-19 has fallen to become more similar to that of other respiratory viruses, and so rather than providing additional virus-specific guidelines, the CDC was opting for a “unified, practical approach.”

  In justifying its shift to the new guidelines, which basically treat COVID-19 like any other respiratory virus, the CDC said that many people with respiratory virus symptoms often don’t know which pathogen is causing their symptoms, so a unified approach is more practical.

  Numerous doctors had long urged the CDC to drop the five-day isolation recommendation, though as recently as mid-February, the agency continued to hold off on making the change, citing the need for more consultation.

  In the updated guidelines, the CDC gave a nod to the “personal and societal costs of extended isolation,” including limited paid sick time.

  In October 2020, Francis Collins labeled me, Harvard prof. @MartinKulldorff, and Oxford prof. @SunetraGupta “fringe epidemiologists” for opposing lockdowns and school closures. He embraced and recommended “social distancing” on the basis of nothing. https://t.co/FkLHtUOUnU

  — Jay Bhattacharya (@DrJBhattacharya) May 17, 2024

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  A number of experts and studies have warned about the harms of prolonged isolation during the pandemic. For instance, the American Psychological Association said in November 2023 that Americans have suffered “collective trauma” related to the pandemic. The association cited a study suggesting that the heavy-handed response to the COVID-19 outbreak—which, in addition to the social distancing rule, included quarantines, school closures, business shutdowns, and near-universal mandating of masks—had a negative effect on people’s physical and mental health.

  Another study that looked at a wide array of research into lockdowns concluded that such measures can be an effective tool in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic but only if “long-term collateral damage is neglected.”

  The price tag of lockdowns in terms of public health is high: by using the known connection between health and wealth, we estimate that lockdowns may claim 20 times more life years than they save,” the study’s authors wrote.

  The researchers also warned about the widespread censorship of dissenting opinions about the lockdowns, noting that it prevents the scientific community from correcting its mistakes and undermines public trust in science.

  *  *  *

  “SICK LIES”

  New York Post goes after Fauci for his lies about dangerous virus research at the Wuhan institute of Virology.

  It’s only going to get worse for these liars.
  (friend sent me this photo from a NY bodega.) pic.twitter.com/tE9xqB0Ffn

  — Paul D. Thacker (@thackerpd) May 17, 2024

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  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 05/18/2024 – 12:15

• When Ideological Bubbles Trump Economic Thinking
  When Ideological Bubbles Trump Economic Thinking

  Authored by Paul Mueller via The American Institute for Economic Research,

  Sometimes smart people make remarkably naïve or deeply problematic comments because their view of the world has been molded by narrow ideology, reinforced by significant consensus in their social circles.

  

  Recently Esther Duflo, a Nobel prize winning economist, revealed herself to be such a person. In a Financial Times interview with Simon Mundy, she said the West owed a “moral debt” of about $500 billion annually to the global south due to its contribution to climate change and the resulting harm.

  I’ve questioned such a calculation elsewhere. And I am not commenting on her published economic work, some of which is no doubt decent. Instead, I want to highlight how outrageously naïve global elites, in this case within the economics profession, have become. There are three major examples of Progressive groupthink in this relatively short interview.

  Example 1 – People advance the public good by paying taxes

  I think we need to rely on taxation because that is the way in which traditionally we ensure that everyone in the economy, private companies and individuals, contributes to the public good. 

  Setting aside the dubious claim that all or even most government spending advances the “public good,” what a narrow view of the world!

  Does this mean that farmers or doctors or mechanics only contribute to the public good when they pay taxes? The question (should) answer itself! This reasoning suggests that her taxes contribute to the public good, not her research. But perhaps if her work is funded by tax dollars…

  The idea that taxes advance the public good informs her claim that we ought to further tax the ultra-wealthy. The super rich don’t and won’t contribute to the public good because, she thinks, they can basically avoid paying taxes.

  Example 2 – The ultra-rich don’t pay taxes

  In terms of the ultra-rich, I think everyone has recognized [sic] the fundamental unfairness in the fact that the ultra-rich are not being taxed on the income that they are making from their wealth. You are being taxed on the income you’re making by interviewing me; I’m being taxed on the income I’m making as an academic. But if we are sufficiently wealthy to have a lot of money invested in various places, and we keep reinvesting this money, we never have to take it out, and therefore, we are never taxed on it. If [the super-rich] want to consume, in a lot of cases, they will borrow against their wealth. So it’s a loan, not an “income” — so they are not taxed on it. That seems to be fundamentally unfair.

  This view that the ultra-wealthy can avoid paying taxes by simply reinvesting their money indefinitely has become canonical in Progressive elite ideological circles due to the peddling of misleading or even incorrect data on income and wealth inequality by economists like Picketty, Saez, and Zucman. They do not seem to care much about the nuanced disincentives of different kinds of taxation. 

  A capital gains tax, for example, is a third-order tax. Companies already pay corporate income taxes which, all else equal, reduces the price of a stock. And when people buy stock initially, they usually do so with previous income that has also already been taxed. Group think among elites means that many of them have never even questioned the validity of this data or the downsides of taxing “capital” because it is all “based on a lot of empirical work.” 

  As a result, a smart economist like Duflo can say that a 2-percent wealth tax is “not going to be a big burden on the ultra-rich, because 2 percent of their wealth is only 30 percent of their income from their wealth, which is currently untaxed.” As if ultra-wealthy people have a simple mixed stock/bond portfolio that averages a seven or eight percent return annually without any volatility.

  For some reason Duflo seems to think that the ultra-wealthy don’t pay taxes. Leaving aside the fact that they obviously pay significant property and sales taxes, they often fund consumption with loans but that only lets them defer their taxes, not eliminate them. Afterall, they have to repay bank loans periodically and they can only do so by realizing (taxable) income or capital gains.

  And while the effective tax rate the ultra-rich pay may be small in some years, or even though their tax payments may be small relative to their net worth at a given moment, Duflo misses a major difference between stable employment income and how entrepreneurs amass fortunes: equity and risk.

  Take Elon Musk, someone she mentions by name as one of the ultra-wealthy who should pay a global wealth tax. Yes, his net worth is enormous, but so is its volatility. On paper, Musk lost about $165 billion dollars in one year (November 2021 to December 2022). In the past four months he has lost close to $20 billion dollars in the market value of his Tesla shares.

  In what world does a 2-percent tax on someone’s wealth equal “only 30 per cent of their income from their wealth”? Such a comment epitomizes the naivety among many Progressive elites.

  Then Duflo makes a freshman error when talking about whether raising taxes reduces people’s incentives to work hard and innovate. She says that her “comfort with taxation…is based on a lot of empirical work that shows that rich people will not stop working or inventing because taxation is higher.” This comfort, no doubt, comes from an uncritical acceptance of Piketty-Saez-Zucman data and highly problematic narratives. 

  Ever since the marginal revolution in the 1870s, Econ 101 has included the idea of marginal analysis. Economists should not ask questions like: “will people stop work or stop inventing” as if some on-off switch is being thrown. Instead, we ask “how much more” or “how much less” of a certain behavior will occur, and then argue about the significance of that magnitude.

  Example 3 – Politicians can and will easily implement this proposal

  It’s really necessary. And it’s reasonable. It’s not that hard.

  That’s what she thinks of her proposal to raise $500 billion in taxes annually and redistribute it to countries disproportionately harmed by climate change. She thinks a novel tax on wealth can be implemented at a global level with all the revenue going to targeted recipients — it defies belief! Why would power-hungry and spendthrift legislators let go of the new tax revenue? 

  Duflo might suggest that we need a “nonpolitical” global organization to enforce and collect the tax. But that begs a similar question: Why would power-hungry and spendthrift legislators authorize or allow such an agency to have such authority? That a Nobel Prize-winning economist can hold these naïve views and fail to use simple economic reasoning should give us pause about how ideology and echo chambers can dull our reasoning. 

  Industrialization, and the carbon emissions that accompanied it, created more benefit for people in poor and developing countries than all the philanthropy and anti-poverty programs in history combined, many times over.

  That a leading expert in development economics ignores this is nigh unforgivable.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 05/18/2024 – 11:40

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• Sen. Cruz Urges DOJ, FBI To Investigate Whether Foreign Adversaries Are Behind Gaza War Protests In US
  Sen. Cruz Urges DOJ, FBI To Investigate Whether Foreign Adversaries Are Behind Gaza War Protests In US

  Authored by Ryan Morgan via The Epoch Times,

  Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) has called for U.S. federal authorities to investigate whether foreign actors are promoting contentions within the United States, including recent protests over the war in Gaza taking place on U.S. college campuses and other venues around the country.

  

  During a Wednesday, May 15 episode of his personal podcast “The Verdict,” Mr. Cruz noted a recent report by the Network Contagion Research Institute (NCRI) alleging connections between the the “Shut It Down for Palestine” (SID4P) movement and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

  The NCRI report specifically alleges that convenor organizations that formed the SID4P protest movement, People’s Forum, the International People’s Assembly, and ANSWER Coalition, “serve as the conduit through which CCP-affiliated entities have effectively co-opted pro-Palestinian activism in the U.S., advancing a broader anti-American, anti-democratic, and anti-capitalist agenda.”

  “If you look at this report from NCRI, it details how China is spending millions upwards of potentially $100 million funding these protests that are occurring on campuses that are shutting down bridges that are shutting down airports,” Mr. Cruz said.

  “And you might think, okay, ‘What does China care about Hamas? What does China care about Israel?’ And the truth of the matter is they don’t, but they care about America, they care about tearing our country apart, they care about chaos and fomenting dissent and dissension that paralyzes our country.”

  During the podcast episode, Mr. Cruz also noted a recent article by the New York Post alleging ties between Manolo De Los Santos, a 35-year-old New York-based activist involved in recent pro-Palestinian activism, and Cuba. Mr. De Los Santos was born in the Dominican Republic and now works with The People’s Forum.

  Report Says Protest Group May Be Tied to Terrorist Group

  The NCRI report also states some Western intelligence assessments indicate Samidoun, an organization that has endorsed SID4P, is connected to the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP). The U.S. government has designated PFLP as a foreign terrorist organization.

  The German government banned Samidoun from operating in the country in October.

  The NCRI report derives its claims that Samidoun may be linked to PFLP from a November article in the German newspaper Deutsche Welle, which itself cites unnamed intelligence sources for the alleged PFLP connection.

  NTD News reached out to Samidoun for comment on these allegations but did not receive a response by press time. The group did, however, publish a statement criticizing the German government’s decision to ban them in October.

  “If the German Chancellor and his government support the genocidal war on Gaza being carried out as we speak, it can be no surprise that they also seek to criminalize the ability of Palestinians and people of conscience to act against that war, to speak out, to organize, and to express support for the Palestinian people’s drive and struggle for freedom, justice and liberation,” Samidoun’s October statement reads.

  Samidoun said in October that it was committed to challenging the German government’s ban.

  Cruz: DOJ and FBI Should Investigate

  Mr. Cruz and 15 other Republican U.S. senators signed a letter last week, calling on the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) to begin investigating whether various nonprofit organizations involved in organizing protests over the war in Gaza should lose their tax-exempt status on the grounds that their activities may constitute prohibit support for terrorist organizations.

  The Republican Texas senator took his calls for investigation a step further during the Wednesday podcast, urging the U.S. Department of Justice to also begin investigating these activist groups.

  “The Department of Justice should be investigating this. The FBI should be investigating this,” Mr. Cruz said. “We’ve got money coming from communist China, behind these protests, behind these anti-American anti-Israel protests. We’ve got money coming from organizations that have close ties to designated terrorist organizations. And so, whether it is Hamas and Hezbollah pushing this, whether it is affiliated allies of theirs pushing this, whether it is Iran pushing this, or whether it’s Communist China pushing this, the FBI ought to be all over it.”

  NTD News reached out to the SID4P convenor organizations for comment about the NCRI report and Mr. Cruz’s calls for investigation but they did not respond by press time.

  NTD News also reached out for comment from Mr. De Los Santos but did not receive a response.

  In addition to his calls for FBI investigations, Mr. Cruz also advocated for deporting foreign nationals engaged in certain protest activities.

  “As far as I’m concerned, if you have a student on a student visa, who gets out there and is burning an American flag and chanting Death to America, you should deport him that day,” Mr. Cruz said. “We have no obligation to allow people to come on student visas, which is permissive, and it is a choice that is a discretionary choice if they are going to tear down this country.”

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 05/17/2024 – 23:40

• NOTAM Sparks Confusion Over Possible Russian Hypersonic Missile Test Off California Coast
  NOTAM Sparks Confusion Over Possible Russian Hypersonic Missile Test Off California Coast

  There’s been quite a stir on X as some users speculate that a NOTAM, or aviation notice to airmen, suggests a potential Russian Navy hypersonic missile test off the coast of Southern California. However, that’s not the case. According to The War Zone, the NOTAM is actually in anticipation of a Russian space booster splashing down in the Pacific. 

  Let’s begin with the misguided hype on X about the threats of Russian missile testing off the California coast. These posts collectively have generated more than a million views. 

  Russian Navy rocket/gun/missile firing starts this afternoon off the coast of California and Baja until the 26th in International waters. Shouldn’t really affect any flights going to/from Hawaii.

  THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION PLANS TO CONDUCT ROCKET FIRINGS. IMPACT AREA WI THE OAKLAND… pic.twitter.com/xLppIZDSae

  — Thenewarea51 (@thenewarea51) May 16, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  🇷🇺🇷🇺🇷🇺Russian Navy will do hypersonic missile test exercise — 40 miles away from California

  Apparently exercise/test will last 10 days will end May 26 , 2024

  this will be new hypersonic —(Zirconium) SCRAMJET ENGINE testing off coast of California.

  Mach : 8 — 12 top speed🇷🇺🇷🇺 pic.twitter.com/q2oyR1kKl4

  — Fish 🐟𝐙 (@fisherofsea) May 17, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Meanwhile, two US defense officials told TWZ the NOTAM is in place through May 26 because of the re-entry of a “Russian space launch booster.” 

  “It is not for a launch or a military exercise,” the officials said, commenting on the social media hype. 

  

  Concerns about the Russians in the Pacific surfaced earlier this week in a NOTAM posted on May 13 advising pilots to avoid a large block of airspace between May 16 and May 26 “for Russian Federation impact area by at least 50 nautical miles.”

  “This notice is for all aircraft transiting from Hawaii to North America and North America to Hawaii. The following restrictions are due to the Russian Federation rocket firing impact area,” the NOTAM read, which sparked mass confusion. 

  

  US defense officials weren’t entirely sure which Russian rocket booster would splash down in the Pacific. However, Russian media outlet TASS reported earlier today that a Soyuz-2.1b rocket equipped with satellites launched Friday. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 05/17/2024 – 23:20

• Drug Overdose Deaths Drop For First Time Since 2018
  Drug Overdose Deaths Drop For First Time Since 2018

  Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times,

  The rate of death by overdose declined in 2023, marking the first decrease in five years. Data released by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) National Center for Health Statistics show the decline mainly attributed to a drop in deaths from synthetic opioids, specifically fentanyl.

  

  The number of drug overdoses in 2023 was predicted to be 107,543, down from 111,029 in 2022, indicating a 3 percent drop. Deaths from all types of opioids dropped by 3.7 percent.

  The good news, unfortunately, stops there, as death rates from stimulants like cocaine and methamphetamine rose. Deaths from cocaine overdose were up 5.2 percent, while the death rate for methamphetamine was up nearly 2 percent.

  Some states saw decreases in overdose death rates. Indiana, Kansas, Maine, and Nebraska experienced declines of 15 percent or more. Alaska, Oregon, and Washington, however, experienced significant spikes in overdose deaths, with rates increasing by at least 27 percent.

  However, drug overdose-death trends seem to be leveling off after a drastic spike from 2019 to 2020. According to the National Center for Health Statistics, the overdose death rate increased 31 percent that year, marking the biggest spike since 2002. Drug overdoses remain one of the leading causes of injury death in adults, the CDC reports.

  Narcan’s Wider Availability May Be Behind the Dip

  The report gave no definitive reason for the slight decrease in drug overdose deaths. However, naloxone, more commonly known as Narcan, has become more widely available and used. In 2023, Narcan became more available in public places, including schools and federal buildings, as part of the Biden administration’s National Drug Control Strategy.

  “These lifesaving medications should be as readily available as fire extinguishers or defibrillators in all public spaces, from schools, to housing communities, to restaurants, retail, and other businesses,” Human Health Services Secretary Xavier Becerra said in a press release.

  Additionally, test strips became available for people looking to test their drugs for fentanyl. Community clinics also operate programs to hand out sterile syringes to help reduce transmission of infections such as hepatitis C and HIV among those who inject drugs.

  Despite the dip in death rates, drug overdose deaths remain at an all-time high, as does illicit drug use. Results of the 2022 National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) showed that 48.7 million Americans 12 or older struggled with drug addiction in the past year, including 29.5 million who were addicted to alcohol, 27.2 million who were addicted to drugs, and 8 million with an addiction to both.

  “The National Survey on Drug Use and Health provides an annual snapshot of behavioral health nationwide,” Mr. Becerra said in an NSDUH press release. “This data informs knowledge, policy and action, and drives our shared commitment across government, healthcare, industry and community to offer resources and services to those in need.”

  Drug Use, Mental Illness Go Hand in Hand

  In 2022, 70.3 million Americans aged 12 and older admitted to using an illicit drug in the past year. The NSDUH also found that nearly one in four adults 18 and older had a mental illness within the past year and that just under 5 million adolescents experienced a major depressive episode.

  Moreover, one in 20 adults had harbored serious thoughts of suicide in the past year, while 3.8 million had made a serious plan; another 1.8 million had attempted to end their lives. Adolescents were not immune to suicidal ideation. Over one in eight adolescents between 12 and 17 years old entertained suicidal thoughts, one in 15 made plans, and one in 25 attempted suicide.

  “To tackle the behavioral health crisis in this nation, we need to fully understand the issues surrounding mental health and substance use, and the impact they have on people and communities,” Human Health Services Deputy Secretary Andrea Palm said in a press release.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 05/17/2024 – 23:00

• Watch: Houthis Shoot Down A 4th US Reaper Drone
  Watch: Houthis Shoot Down A 4th US Reaper Drone

  Yemen’s Iran-linked Houthis have announced that they have shot down yet another $30 million American military drone. 

  Footage is widely circulating of what appears to be the wreckage of an MQ-9 Reaper drone in Yemen, but the Pentagon has not yet confirmed. 

  

  Houthi military spokesman Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree described that the drone was conducing “hostile actions” over Yemen’s Marib province when it was shot down by a surface-to-air missile.

  The Associated Press has commented of footage released by the Houthis:

  The Houthis later released footage they claimed showed the surface-to-air-missile being launched at night, along with night-vision footage of the missile hitting the drone.

  A man, whose voice had been digitally altered to apparently prevent identification, chanted the Houthi slogan: God is the greatest; death to America; death to Israel; curse the Jews; victory to Islam.”

  Though the US had not confirmed prior shootdowns in every case, this would mark the fourth Reaper downing by the Houthis since Gaza-related hostilities began in the wake of Oct.7.

  Over the last half-decade many more have been lost, in connection with the prior Saudi-US-UAE coalition war against the Yemeni rebels.

  “Since the Houthis seized the country’s north and its capital, Sanaa, in 2014, the U.S. military has previously lost at least five drones to the rebels,” the AP report notes.

  WATCH | Yemeni air defenses shot down a US MQ9 drone in the airspace of Maarib, west of Yemen, with a locally produced surface-to-air missile. pic.twitter.com/kIOWEcO0fI

  — The Cradle (@TheCradleMedia) May 17, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  We described previously that literally hundreds of US and British missile strikes on Yemen have done nothing to deter the Houthis, who insist the campaign will only stop once there’s a ceasefire in Gaza.

  The US backed a brutal Saudi/UAE war against the Houthis from 2015-2022 that involved heavy airstrikes and a blockade, and the Houthis only became more of a capable fighting force during that time.

  New images of the downed drone wreckage from Yemen:

  Yemeni Sources have Posted several Pictures tonight from near the City of Marib, which appear to show that yet another U.S. Air Force MQ-9 “Reaper” Surveillance Drone has been Shot Down by the Houthi Terrorist Group in Western Yemen; with this likely being the 4th MQ-9 to be… pic.twitter.com/rvBTv8IJia

  — OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) May 16, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  So ultimately, the Pentagon’s Yemen adventurism over a period of years has cost American taxpayers billions, and yet Congress has never officially authorized combat operations there.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 05/17/2024 – 22:40

• US Power Grid May Become Unreliable This Summer, Watchdog Warns
  US Power Grid May Become Unreliable This Summer, Watchdog Warns

  Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

  Parts of America could face difficulties in meeting electricity demand during the summer season, with renewable energy sources like wind and solar power posing a potential risk to reliable power supply, according to a report by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC).

  

  The NERC report classifies several parts of the country as facing an “elevated” risk of summer electricity reliability for the upcoming June-September period.

  Elevated risk means there is “potential for insufficient operating reserves” when the region faces above-normal demand conditions. Such regions include parts of Louisiana, Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, California, Illinois, and Iowa. The determination of elevated risk is based on various factors, including potential low wind or solar energy condions that could lead to a lower electricity supply.

  The North American power bulk power system (BPS) is made up of six regional entities—Midwest Reliability Organization (MRO), Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC), ReliabilityFirst (RF), SERC Reliability Corporation (SERC), Texas Reliability Entity (Texas RE), Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC)—with elevated risk upcoming in certain regions.

  Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), which manages the electricity capacity market, operates in 15 U.S. states, including Texas, Illinois, Montana, Arkansas, and Kentucky. MISO is expected to have “sufficient resources” to meet normal summer peak demand, the NERC report said.

  However, if MISO were to face above-normal peak demand conditions at a time when wind and solar output is lower than expected, it could be “challenging” for the transmission organization to meet demand.

  “Wind generator performance during periods of high demand is a key factor in determining whether there is sufficient electricity supply on the system or if external (non-firm) supply assistance is required to maintain reliability.”

  The Texas RE ERCOT (Electric Reliability Council of Texas) interconnection, which handles approximately 90 percent of Texas’ electrical load, faces potential emergency conditions in summer evening hours “when solar generation begins to ramp down.”

  Under certain grid conditions, power transfers from South Texas to the San Antonio region have to be restricted, which contributes to “elevated risk” of supply. Such grid conditions occur when “demand is high and wind and solar output is low in specific areas, straining the transmission system.”

  In areas serviced by the WECC covering 14 states, including California and New Mexico, challenges to electricity reliability are estimated to be under “above-normal demand and low-resource conditions.” Such a situation happens when there is low solar output or below-normal imports, the report said.

  Commenting on the NERC report, Michelle Bloodworth, the CEO of America’s Power, a partnership of industries involved in producing electricity from coal, said the assessment reveals that the American electricity grid is “increasingly reliant on weather-dependent sources of electricity” like solar and wind power.

  This puts “one-third of the country at elevated risk of blackouts this summer,” she said, adding that such risks are only poised to increase because of regulations imposed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

  “Delayed coal plant retirements are playing a key role in supporting grid reliability. However, this is only a temporary band-aid because EPA regulations will cause more coal retirements that cannot be delayed. These regulations, especially the recently announced Carbon Rule, increase the chance of blackouts,” Ms. Bloodworth said.

  “With electricity demand exploding, our country needs a strategy for ensuring a healthy long-term electricity supply that doesn’t depend on the sun and the wind and is not dictated by EPA regulations.”

  The EPA backs renewable energy, noting it “produces no greenhouse gas emissions” like fossil fuels and reduces some types of air pollution. Renewable can also reduce America’s “dependence on imported fuels.”

  Last month, the EPA announced $7 billion in grants under the “Solar for All” scheme to deliver residential solar projects to more than 900,000 homes across the United States. The grants are awarded to 60 selectees.

  “The selectees will advance solar energy initiatives across the country, creating hundreds of thousands of good-paying jobs, saving $8 billion in energy costs for families, delivering cleaner air, and combating climate change,” EPA administrator Michael S. Regan said.

  New EPA Rule

  The NERC report comes as the EPA announced a suite of final rules on April 25 aimed at reducing pollution from fossil fuel-fired power plants.

  The new standards require all coal-fired plants that intend to run in the long term as well as all new baseload gas-fired plants to curb 90 percent of their carbon pollution.

  The rules also tighten the coal plant emissions standard for toxic metals by 67 percent and mandate a 70 percent reduction in the emissions standard for mercury from existing lignite-fired sources. Additionally, rules regarding wastewater discharge at coal plants and the management of coal ash are strengthened.

  The EPA claims the new standards deliver on the Biden administration’s commitment to protect the health of all communities. The agency said the rules will deliver “hundreds of billions of dollars in net benefits.”

  “The regulatory impact analysis projects reductions of 1.38 billion metric tons of carbon pollution overall through 2047, which is equivalent to preventing the annual emissions of 328 million gasoline cars, or to nearly an entire year of emissions from the entire U.S. electric power sector. It also projects up to $370 billion in climate and public health net benefits over the next two decades,” the EPA said.

  The agency also estimates that the rules will avoid up to 1,200 premature deaths, 1,900 cases of asthma onset, 360,000 instances of asthma symptoms, and 57,000 lost workdays in 2035 alone.

  “By developing these standards in a clear, transparent, inclusive manner, EPA is cutting pollution while ensuring that power companies can make smart investments and continue to deliver reliable electricity for all Americans,” Mr. Regan said.

  The energy regulations have been criticized by Jim Matheson, CEO of the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association, a trade association of electrical cooperatives.

  “The path outlined by the EPA is unlawful, unrealistic, and unachievable,” he said. “It undermines electric reliability and poses grave consequences for an already stressed electric grid. This barrage of new EPA rules ignores our nation’s ongoing electric reliability challenges and is the wrong approach at a critical time for our nation’s energy future.”

  Senator Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) called EPA rules proof that President Biden has “doubled down” on his plans to shut down the “backbone of America’s electric grid.”

  “Electricity demand is set to skyrocket thanks in part to the EPA’s own electric vehicles mandate, and unfortunately, Americans are already paying higher utility bills under President Biden,” she said.

  “Despite all this, the administration has chosen to press ahead with its unrealistic climate agenda that threatens access to affordable, reliable energy for households and employers across the country.”

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 05/17/2024 – 22:20

• First Images Of American Taxpayers' $350 Million Completed Gaza Pier 
  First Images Of American Taxpayers’ $350 Million Completed Gaza Pier 

  The Pentagon is ‘proud’… and so is the Biden administration. But the US taxpayer?…

  “Today we began delivery of aid from the temporary pier on to the beach of Gaza for further distribution to the people by our partners,” US Central Command announced Friday. “This unique logistics capability facilitates the delivery of lifesaving humanitarian aid enabling a shared service for the international community to use to serve the people of Gaza.” Below are some of the first overhead images since its completion. 

  

  It’s “unique” we’re told… and only costs about $350 million. 

  But critics have pointed out the grim irony and contradictions which abound in that the Biden administration has very publicly criticized the way that Israel’s military is waging war in Gaza (and especially the high civilian death toll) while simultaneously Washington is funding it, ultimately to the tune of billions.

  So the US is funding the weapons used to execute the war and risky projects (it remains high risk in that US personnel could come under attack by Hamas) like of US Army-built pier for the sake of delivering humanitarian aid.

  In short the US taxpayer is on the hook for both the bombs and humanitarian aid, even as all parties have seemed to essentially give up on finding a political solution or reaching a truce deal.

  Reminder to American taxpayers: This floating pier cost you $350 million (and counting), while using existing roads for aid delivery remain the most practical solution. The question is…why? https://t.co/h0eOLL9eTO

  — Daniel McAdams (@DanielLMcAdams) May 17, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The Ron Paul Institute’s Daniel McAdams has pointed out: “Reminder to American taxpayers: This floating pier cost you $350 million (and counting), while using existing roads for aid delivery remain the most practical solution.”

  “The question is…why?” he wrote.

  The first batch of aid to reach Gaza by sea in weeks has started making its way through a US-built pier anchored off Gaza’s coast, the US Central Command said https://t.co/IgVwgNgw3r pic.twitter.com/FEnXVkYThG

  — Reuters (@Reuters) May 17, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  As for US Progressives, they’ve decried that the Democratic administration is aiding in active war crimes. Biden is fast losing a key part of his base going into November where he faces Donald Trump. 

  For example The Intercept’s Jeremy Scahill says, “The fact that the US is establishing a pier off the Gaza coast because the genocidal Israeli government, which the US funds, arms, politically bolsters & shields from international & US law, won’t allow aid into Gaza by land is a damning statement about the Biden administration.”

  

  At the same time America’s own bridges, roads, border, energy infrastructure… continue to remain neglected. And again, this while we erect complicated piers and loading zones in foreign hot conflict zones.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 05/17/2024 – 22:00

• Santa Monica Homeless Man Slapped With Felony Charges After Dragging Jogger By Ponytail
  Santa Monica Homeless Man Slapped With Felony Charges After Dragging Jogger By Ponytail

  Authored by Sophie Li via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  A homeless man in Santa Monica was arrested earlier this week after allegedly dragging a female jogger by her ponytail across a beach path in what the victim believes to have been a failed attempt at sexual assault.

  

  Malcolm Jimmy Ward, Jr., 48, is currently being held without bail, the Santa Monica Police Department said in a May 16 statement.

  Officers responded to reports of an assault on the 2000 block of Ocean Front Walk around 7 a.m. May 13. Upon arrival, they found both the victim and suspect near public restrooms, and the suspect was taken into custody without incident, police said. He has been charged with felony counts of kidnapping, assault with intent to commit rape, and violation of parole.

  According to CBS News, the victim, identified as a Venice resident, was jogging at around 7:15 a.m. in the 2000 block of Ocean Front Walk, when the suspect approached her from behind and grabbed her ponytail, causing her to fall to the ground.

  The suspect allegedly dragged her several feet toward the restroom. Several witnesses intervened in the attack and contacted the police, according to authorities. The woman suffered minor injuries.

  “The victim believed that the suspect intended to sexually assault her,” police said.

  According to police, Mr. Ward was on parole for assault with a deadly weapon at the time of the arrest and is homeless.

   

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 05/17/2024 – 21:40

• 25 Year Old BofA Analyst Dies Suddenly Of Cardiac Arrest While Playing Soccer At Industry Event
  25 Year Old BofA Analyst Dies Suddenly Of Cardiac Arrest While Playing Soccer At Industry Event

  A credit trader from Bank of America who was just 25 years old died suddenly on Thursday night while playing soccer at an industry event, a report by Yahoo/Bloomberg on Friday confirmed. 

  The credit portfolio and algorithmic trader, Adnan Deumic, reportedly “collapsed of a suspected cardiac arrest” and did not respond to medical treatment, including CPR, the writeup says. 

  The bank commented: “The death of our teammate is a tragedy, and we are shocked by the sudden loss of a popular, young colleague. We are committed to providing our full support to Adnan’s family, his friends and to our many employees grieving his loss.”

  Working out of Bank of America’s London office, the trader was “active in sports”, the report says, noting that he was a native of Sweden and also played ice hockey. 

  

  The recent death marks the second loss of a young employee in the firm’s Wall Street divisions. Leo Lukenas, an investment banking associate in New York, passed away earlier this month.

  It is unclear if work contributed to Lukenas’ death, and Bank of America is not formally investigating it, Bloomberg reported. The bank stated it is focused on supporting the family and the team, who are devastated.

  As the article notes, this incident has sparked discussions within the industry about the demanding, long hours in investment banking. We’re sure there one other topic that it isn’t sparking discussions about…

  As has been reported, it is still uncertain what contributed to Lukenas’ death, and Bank of America is not formally investigating it.

  The company’s said its focus “doing whatever we can to help and support the family and our team who are devastated,” it commented.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 05/17/2024 – 21:20

• 2 House Panels Clear Contempt Resolutions Against AG Garland
  2 House Panels Clear Contempt Resolutions Against AG Garland

  Authored by Samantha Flom via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  

  Republicans on two House committees voted to hold Attorney General Merrick Garland in contempt of Congress on Thursday night despite President Joe Biden’s intervention to block them from obtaining his recorded interviews with special counsel Robert Hur.

  After a spirited debate, members of the House Judiciary Committee voted 18–15 on May 16 to approve a resolution to hold Mr. Garland in contempt for refusing to provide impeachment investigators with the recordings in defiance of congressional subpoenas.

  The House Oversight Committee followed suit hours later, voting 24-20 to approve their own resolution.

  The measures would need to pass the full House before a referral is made to the Justice Department, but whether House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) will bring the resolutions to the floor is unclear.

  The Justice Department did not respond to a request for comment by press time.

  The vote came hours after the president, at Mr. Garland’s request, asserted executive privilege over the recordings, precluding prosecution of the attorney general for his noncompliance.

  The tapes were recorded during Mr. Hur’s investigation of President Biden’s handling of classified documents. Although the special counsel concluded that the president had willfully retained and disclosed classified materials in violation of the law, he ultimately decided not to prosecute, reasoning that a jury would be sympathetic toward an “elderly man with a poor memory.”

  On May 16, Republicans pointed to that decision as a reason for them to hear the recordings for themselves.

  “If our commander-in-chief is so incompetent that he cannot stand trial—if he’s not fit to stand trial—then he’s too incompetent, for God’s sake, to be the leader of the most powerful nation on the face of the earth,” Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.) said.

  “And if President Biden is competent and special counsel Hur’s assessment was incorrect, then President Biden should face a jury for his crimes of mishandling classified materials.”

  ‘What’s the Big Deal?’

  While the Justice Department has provided the Judiciary and Oversight and Accountability committees with transcripts of the solicited recordings, the department has refused to turn over the recordings themselves.

  Democrats on the Judiciary Committee argued that investigators don’t need the recordings as they already have the transcripts of the interviews. But transcripts, Republican members argued, can be altered, and do not convey other information, such as the speaker’s inflections or tone of voice.

  “Transcripts alone are not sufficient evidence of the state of the president’s memory, right? Because the White House has a track record of altering the transcripts,” Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) said, citing the White House’s past scrubbing of the president’s gaffes from transcripts of his speeches.

  Rep. Ted Lieu (D-Calif.), however, argued that there was “no evidence whatsoever” that the transcripts had been doctored.

  “This transcript was produced by Robert Hur’s office. Robert Hur was appointed by Donald Trump. He is a Republican appointee. The notion that somehow this transcript is fake is a wild, insane conspiracy theory,” he said.

  Mr. Lieu went on to suggest that Republicans only wanted the transcripts so they could “smear” President Biden over his stuttering problem.

  Meanwhile, Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) charged that the move to hold Mr. Garland in contempt was a political stunt to benefit former President Donald Trump.

  “This is about doing everything to help Donald Trump, who you see as your client, who a New York criminal trial sees as a defendant, to help him win an election. So, I have no interest in playing this game; the American people have no interest in playing this game,” Mr. Swalwell said.

  But Mr. Van Drew dismissed the mention of President Trump as a distraction.

  “That’s not why we’re here,” he said, holding that President Biden’s fitness for office is a pressing concern that the committee needs to scrutinize.

  “And by the way, if it’s no big deal, as the other side says, because we have the transcripts. Well, we do have the transcript, so why do you care so much about us getting the audio? What’s the big deal?”

  Mr. Johnson seemed to provide his own answer to that question earlier in the day at a news conference.

  “President Biden is apparently afraid for the citizens of this country and everyone to hear those tapes,” he said. “They obviously confirm what the special counsel has found, and would likely cause, I suppose, in his estimation, such alarm of the American people that the president is using all of his power to suppress their release.”

  Moving Forward

  President Biden’s legal counsel, Ed Siskel, advised both committees on the morning of May 16 that executive privilege had been invoked and accused the chairmen of political partisanship.

  “The absence of a legitimate need for the audio recordings lays bare your likely goal—to chop them up, distort them, and use them for partisan political purposes,” he wrote. “Demanding such sensitive and constitutionally-protected law enforcement materials from the Executive Branch because you want to manipulate them for potential political gain is inappropriate.”

  In his letter to President Biden, the attorney general’s cited reason for withholding the recordings was that their release would have “deleterious effects” on the integrity of similar law enforcement investigations down the road.

  Urging the president to assert executive privilege, Mr. Garland added that he did not think that the House committees could overcome such an assertion if the matter wound up in court.

  Typically, with the full House’s approval, a contempt of Congress citation would be sent to the appropriate U.S. attorney to pursue charges. But in this case, the assertion of executive privilege means that Mr. Garland will be shielded from prosecution pending a legal challenge.

  The Oversight and Accountability Committee is slated to hold its own markup of another resolution to hold Mr. Garland in contempt at 8 p.m.

  Jackson Richman contributed to this report.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 05/17/2024 – 21:00

• China Unveils A Housing Market Bailout: Here's What's In It, And Why It Is Still Not Enough
  China Unveils A Housing Market Bailout: Here’s What’s In It, And Why It Is Still Not Enough

  More than four years ago, when China first launched its latest “deleveraging” campaign targeted at bursting the country’s housing bubble in a controlled fashion, which coincidentally was the single largest asset for China’s massive middle class, we – and many others – said that this experiment was doomed and that all China is doing is delaying the inevitable bailout of the property sector with another metric asston of new debt. Well, as the news overnight confirmed, we were right… but not before China saw all of its largest domestic real estate developers collapse, push its housing market into a deflationary tailspin from which the country has not yet recovered, and suffered five years where its economy stagnated and pushed social tension to the edge.

  So what happened?

  On Friday, Chinese policymakers unveiled a fresh batch of easing measures for the housing market, including:

  1. clear top-down guidance for local governments to purchase existing housing inventory for public housing provision,
  2. an RMB300bn relending quota for destocking the housing market,
  3. reductions in downpayment ratios and mortgage rates,
  4. more policy support to secure the delivery of pre-sold homes.

  Needless to say, local government (which is really just an extension of the central government) purchases of existing housing inventory is for lack of a better word, nationalization, and as Goldman writes in its post-mortem (pdf available to pro subs), if implemented at scale, can help stabilize home sales, prices and completions, but the boost to new starts and land purchase would be limited.

  And while lower downpayment ratios and mortgage rates may boost home sales to some degree, the magnitude of downpayment ratio reductions was relatively small this time, and the pace of cuts to effective mortgage rates could be somewhat constrained by bank net interest margins.

  In total, Goldman expects more housing easing efforts down the road — especially on the demand-side — and view funding and implementation as key for the effectiveness of any property market rescue plan. Besides the RMB300bn relending quota, the PBOC’s pledged supplementary lending (PSL), local government special bonds (LGSB), policy bank bonds and commercial bank loans could be potential funding sources for housing destocking. Upcoming policy events will be worth monitoring closely, especially on solutions to address funding and implementation bottlenecks.

  1. What’s new today? Following the April Politburo meeting, Chinese policymakers have significantly stepped up their easing efforts to help stabilize the property sector, on both funding and policy solutions. There were a batch of fresh housing easing measures unveiled today (17 May):

  • At a video conference today on securing home completions, Vice Premier He Lifeng required to clearly understand the people nature (“人民性”) and political nature (“政治性”) of real estate work, and called for more forceful policy measures to secure the delivery of pre-sold homes and digest unsold commodity housing. He specifically mentioned that for cities with high housing inventory, local governments can purchase part of commodity housing to convert into public housing, based on the local situation and at reasonable prices. He required continued policy efforts on the risk disposal of property developer debt, and the “Three Major Projects” for the property sector (i.e., urban village renovation, public housing provision, and emergency public facilities).
  • At the State Council press conference this afternoon, a PBOC spokesman announced an RMB300bn relending program to support local government purchase of existing housing inventory and converting into public housing (“保障性住房再贷款”). The relending interest rate will be set at 1.75%, and the tenor will be 1yr, eligible for rolling over four times if necessary. As banks will receive relending funds amounting to 60% of the principal of their loans to qualified projects, PBOC expects the RMB300bn relending quota to support RMB500bn in bank lending for housing destocking. On the implementation, PBOC highlighted that local governments should appoint local SOEs as agents to purchase housing inventory, but these agents should not engage in local government implicit debt (LGFVs are not qualified). Housing inventory purchase eligible for the relending support should be completed but unsold commodity housing, per the PBOC’s requirement.
  • According to the PBOC’s announcements released today, the nationwide floor for mortgage interest rates will be removed, implying local governments have more discretion to lower their local effective mortgage rates if needed. If there is any major change in the supply-demand dynamics of the property market, PBOC would consider resuming the nationwide floor for mortgage rates. PBOC also lowered the minimum down-payment ratio by 5pp, to 15% for first-time buyers and to 25% for second-home buyers. Housing provident fund loan rates will also be lowered by 25bp, effective 18 May.
  • National Financial Regulatory Administration (NFRA) pledged to support property projects in the “whitelist” through both new loan issuance and existing loan extensions, with due risk management. Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MOHURD) required local governments to push forward the implementation of “whitelist” projects, and commercial banks to increase lending to these projects.

  2. Why now? Despite the previous round of housing easing measures, property headwinds are still strong: new home sales have remained around 30% below year-ago levels in recent months…

  

  …  housing inventory has stayed elevated, secondary home prices declined further in April…

  

  … and some private developers (e.g., Vanke, Agile) continue to face challenging funding conditions. Here, Goldman asserts that “recent developments suggest to us that the prolonged property sector weakness has likely breached policymakers’ pain threshold, pushing them to step up housing easing and to shift the strategic focus towards digesting existing housing inventory.”

  3. What’s the likely impact? Local government purchase of existing housing inventory, if implemented at scale, can help stabilize home sales, prices and housing consumer sentiment, improve property developers funding conditions to some degree, and thus facilitate home completions and property sector rebalancing. However, the boost to new starts and investment will likely be limited, as property developers’ funding conditions will remain tight, given falling new home sales, potential price discounts during local government housing purchases, and the policy priority on ensuring completions (implying less funding for land purchases and new starts). Lower downpayment ratios and mortgage rates may also boost home sales to some degree (a 10pps cut to downpayment ratio raises sales by around 7%), although the magnitude of downpayment ratio reductions was relatively small this time, and the pace of cuts to effective mortgage rates could be somewhat constrained by bank net interest margins (NIM). Furthermore, though it’s crucial to prevent significant risk spillovers from the property sector to the banking sector and the real economy, policymakers appear to have no intention to turn the sector from a growth drag to a driver, given the shift in their policy focus towards high-quality growth. PBOC’s highlight on a potential exit mechanism for the effective mortgage rate cuts underpins this view

  4. Examples from recent local pilot programs. While some cities (e.g., Chongqing, Jinan) have already experimented pilot programs to clear excess housing inventory with the help of state funding, the amount of previous purchase was at a very small scale. Recent pilot programs, including in Lin’an district of Hangzhou city, indicate local governments appear more willing to purchase small and medium-sized housing units with little completion risk at lower-than-average prices, and mostly in large cities (with net population inflows). Specifically, Lin’an district announced that the total floor space to be purchased this round will be capped at 10,000 sqm; housing units eligible for the purchase include completed housing and uncompleted ones able to be delivered in one year, with floor space no higher than 70 sqm per unit; the purchase price will not exceed comparable market rates; it would purchase housing units and car parking spots on an entire building basis.

  5. What to watch next? Expect more housing easing efforts down the road — especially on the demand side — with funding and implementation as key for the effectiveness of the property rescue plan. On the funding, a recent Goldman analysis suggests any game-changing housing easing measures (including those for housing destocking) would require significantly more funding than available thus far, while many inland local governments remain financially stretched after the three years of zero-Covid policy and amid the prolonged property downturn. This will require a larger top-down funding scheme from the central government, beyond the RMB300bn relending quota. Moreover, strengthened fiscal discipline and financial regulation may dampen some officials’ incentives for more concerted and forceful policy efforts. Upcoming policy events — such as the July Politburo meeting, the Third Plenum, and ad hoc meetings/announcements by major authorities (e.g., the State Council, NDRC, MOF, MOHURD, PBOC, SASAC) — will be worth monitoring closely, especially on solutions to address funding and implementation bottlenecks (Exhibit 3).

  

  6. Other potential funding sources. Besides the RMB300bn relending quota, PBOC’s pledged supplementary lending (PSL), local government special bonds (LGSB), policy bank bonds and commercial bank loans could be potential funding sources for housing destocking:

  • PSL is designated to fund property-related stimulus packages, including the large-scale shantytown renovation during 2015-18, and the “Three Major Projects” for the property sector most recently. Goldman assumes PSL net issuance will rise to RMB700bn in 2024 from RMB99bn in 2023, although there are some uncertainties if policymakers prefer to use more relending (funding costs at 1.75% pa) relative to PSL (2.25%) to fund housing destocking.

  

  • LGSB was a funding source for shantytown renovation and land reserves in 2018-19, although there was a temporary ban on LGSB proceeds spending in these areas in late 2019 and early 2020. Local governments have only used ~RMB900bn out of the RMB3.9tn full-year LGSB issuance quota so far this year (as of late May), much slower than previous years. This implies an RMB3tn quota available for the remainder of this year, part of which could be used for supporting the ongoing housing easing package. In early 2024, policymakers allowed LGSB proceeds to be used as equity capital to fund public housing related projects, which suggests a likely larger multiplier effect if implemented well.
  • Policy banks were major players in the 2015-18 PSL-backed shantytown renovation, and in theory they have no explicit constraint for external financing. Hence, more policy bank bond issuance and related lending could be possible.
  • Commercial banks, especially the large ones, may also provide more funding support if needed. Moreover, there is a possibility for the PBOC to increase the relending quota for housing destocking if needed.

  By comparison, the ongoing issuance of ultra-long-term central government special bonds (ULT CGSB; 超长期特别国债), which are designated for funding key projects in strategically important areas (e.g., high-tech manufacturing), may not be a financing tool customized for the property sector. That said, purchasing housing inventory well below market prices and requiring banks to increase lending to projects launched by some troubled POEs could lead to increased burden for banks, which in turn could require the government to enhance support to the banking system.

  In a follow up post this weekend, we will look specifically at what it would take to clear China’s housing inventory, and why the proposed program falls short.

  More in the full Goldman report available to pro subs.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 05/17/2024 – 20:40

• CBO Report Obscures Negative Impact Of 'Bidenomics': House Budget Committee Chairman
  CBO Report Obscures Negative Impact Of ‘Bidenomics’: House Budget Committee Chairman

  Authored by Indrajit Basu via The Epoch Times,

  The chairman of the House Budget Committee has cast doubt on a recent Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report, which he says glosses over the failures of President Joe Biden’s economic policies.

  

  The White House has said its policies have led to economic growth “from the middle out and bottom up—not the top down.”

  The report, released Wednesday, was entitled An Update About How Inflation Has Affected Households at Different Income Levels Since 2019.”

  Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-Texas), House Budget Committee Chairman, said in a May 14 press release that the report covers up the downsides of Bidenomics, while taking a “partisan” turn seemingly aimed at bolstering President Biden just six months before an election.

  The report by the CBO, a federal agency that describes itself as “strictly nonpartisan,” was requested by Senate Budget Committee Chairman Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI). An update to a September 2022 report, it shows the cumulative effects of inflation on households since 2019.

  However, it does not provide a year-by-year breakdown of the five year period. Further, because it includes the period 2019 to January 2021, before President Biden took office, it conflates the favorable effects of the Trump-era Tax Cuts and Jobs Act “with the destructive economic and fiscal policies of the Biden Administration,” said the press release from the House Budget Committee.

  Mr. Arrington said the CBO report “intentionally skewed the results to be more favorable to Biden by including the low inflation, high wage growth, economic benefits of 2019 and the large stimulus of 2020.”

  “This CBO report conflates years of low inflation and rising wages with Bidenflation, which began after the passage of the Democrats’ American Rescue Plan (ARP) in March of 2021,” according to the press release.

  The CBO analysis looked at the 2019 “consumption bundles” of U.S. households—that is, goods and services representing consumption in a typical year before the COVID-19 pandemic.

  It highlighted that in households across all income quintiles, the proportion of income required to cover their 2019 “consumption bundle” decreased on average, because income outpaced prices over the four-year span.

  During this period, households in the highest income quintile experienced the most significant reduction in the share of income required for their consumption bundle, the report noted.

  Nonetheless, “The fiscal reality under Bidenomics is grim,” said Mr. Arrington.

  Pointing to a concerning trend, he pointed out that the cumulative inflation rate is steadily climbing, having increased by 18.9 percent over four years. Inflation once again rose to 3.5 percent in March, its highest level in six months.

  The press release also emphasized the erosion of families’ purchasing power. Families have to spend nearly $17,000 per year “to maintain the same standard of living they could afford before President Biden took office,” it said.

  Rising Energy Costs Behind Inflation Surge

  According to Mr. Arrington, even as the CBO paints a rosy picture, the U.S. economy is bogged down by a surge in general inflation. In an April statement on the rising inflation rate, he attributed the rise primarily to increasing energy expenses, particularly gasoline and electricity.

  There were significant increases in clothing prices and transportation services as well, the House Budget Committee noted.

  For an average family of four, according to the committee’s April statement, this translates to an additional expenditure of $16,726 per year or $1,393 per month to buy the same products and services they bought in January 2021.

  The April report underscored the growing pessimism among Americans regarding future job prospects and income outlook, with 18.2 percent anticipating a decrease in job availability and 13.8 percent foreseeing a decline in their incomes in the short term.

  Wednesday’s press release noted that consumer confidence for April fell for the third consecutive month this year, reaching its lowest level since July 2022.

  “Despite the blatant attempts to pad Biden’s economic numbers, whether it’s at the gas station or the grocery store, the American people know all too well the cost of Bidenomics,” Mr. Arrington said Wednesday.

  Bidenomics Drives Debt, Says Committee Chairman

  Promoting “Bidenomics” has also made the country deeply indebted, says Mr. Arrington.

  According to his committee’s April statement, on assuming office, President Biden inherited a total gross debt of $27.75 trillion, which has since ballooned by $6.86 trillion.

  Experts including the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Cato Institute’s Ryan Bourne warn that the U.S. debt position is steadily deteriorating, with the country on the verge of a fiscal disaster unless efforts are taken to lower the federal budget deficit and limit debt growth.

  “If current policies were left on autopilot, U.S. debt-to-GDP would near double over the next 30 years. It’s widely understood that this cannot go on,” Mr. Bourne told The Epoch Times in an email in April.

  In its latest World Economic Outlook on April 16,  the IMF cautioned that while the United States’ economic performance is “impressive,” its long-term fiscal stance is unsustainable.

  Has ‘Bidenomics’ Failed?

  “Bidenomics” is the catchphrase for President Biden’s economic agenda, which includes his administration’s policy efforts, gains, and future intentions in the economic domain.

  The phrase was coined by the media, but not in a complementary context; rather than dismissing it, President Biden has opted to accept and embrace the term.

  Bidenomics has become a cornerstone of President Biden’s narrative about the economy’s strength under his leadership. It is expected to play an important part in his November re-election campaign.

  The White House champions Bidenomics as a vision centered on three core pillars. These encompass making focused public investments to attract more private sector involvement, empowering and educating workers to bolster the middle class, and fostering competition to reduce expenses and support the growth of entrepreneurs and small businesses.

  However, “the majority of Americans have a drastically lower standard of living thanks to Bidenomics,” according to a December LinkedIn post by Armstrong Economics, a global markets and geopolitical strategy think-tank. “Some estimates believe 63% of Americans now live paycheck to paycheck,” the post said.

  According to a February CNN poll, 55 percent of Americans feel Biden’s policies have worsened economic conditions in the United States.

  In a CNN survey conducted last May—as President Biden was stressing the achievements of Bidenomics—two-thirds of Americans expressed disapproval of his handling of the economy, while slightly over three-quarters believed that the economy was in poor condition.

  According to a May Poll by ABC and market research firm Ipsos Group, the economy and inflation remain the most important issues for Americans when determining who they may support for president in November.

  On these matters, more Americans trust former President Donald Trump on most issues than President Biden, and believe they were financially better off under the Trump administration, according to the poll.

  “Enough is enough,” said Mr. Arrington in his April comments. “ We need to step back from the fiscal cliff and restore fiscal sanity in Washington by doing two simple things: cutting spending and growing the economy.”

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 05/17/2024 – 20:20

• Texas Governor Pardons Man Convicted For Shooting Armed BLM Protester
  Texas Governor Pardons Man Convicted For Shooting Armed BLM Protester

  Defend yourself against violent BLM protesters and face an endless salvo of character assassination, not to mention potential prison time.  That was the message being sent by far-left activists and the establishment media from 2020 to 2023, specifically in their efforts to destroy the image of Kyle Rittenhouse and veteran Army Sergeant Daniel Perry. 

  In both cases the men involved were conservative and fired on protesters who were in the process of threatening their lives.  The political left wanted Rittenhouse badly but didn’t get him in court; they needed to make an example and they thought they had the opportunity with Perry.  

  Daniel Perry made the mistake of stumbling into a Black Lives Matter protest In Austin, Texas while driving an Uber on July 25, 2020.  Activists claimed that Perry ran a red light and tried to “ram the crowd.”  This was later proven to be false when footage was released showing Perry simply stuck in the crowd waiting for them to move.  He apparently honked his horn and this is what led to the eventual altercation with Garret Foster, one of the protesters armed with an AK47.  As the crowd angrily surrounded and attacked Perry’s car, shots rang out.

  A mob surrounding and attacking a person’s car is already grounds for self defense.  Perry alleged that Garret Foster approached his vehicle yelling at him to lower his window and then raised the muzzle of his rifle as if getting ready to fire.  Perry, also armed, shot the man believing his life was in danger.  Images show Foster in a mask with his rifle in a tactical “low ready” position standing in the way of Perry’s vehicle, but witnesses (all BLM protesters) claim he did not directly aim the weapon at Perry. 

  

  Perry’s texting history showed discussions with friends indicating that if he was confronted by rioters while working he might have to shoot them.  These texts were presented to the jury as “premeditation.”  Perry, like Rittenhouse, was labeled a “racist” from the start even though he shot another white man (to this day there are still leftists who believe Rittenhouse and Perry shot black protesters).  The veteran was put through the ringer and painted as a monster “looking for a reason” to kill protesters (the same strategy the prosecution used with Rittenhouse).  

  For Rittenhouse the strategy failed, but Perry’s trial was in Austin, a famously progressive enclave in the middle of Texas.  Daniel Perry’s murder conviction despite extenuating circumstances was the left’s answer to the acquittal of Kyle Rittenhouse.  They cheered his 25 year prison sentence as a political and ideological victory, arguing that this would teach conservatives a lesson.

  Governor Greg Abbott, a former Texas Supreme Court justice, has now addressed the Perry case and decided a pardon is necessary after the Texas Board of Pardons issued a unanimous recommendation.  The full text of the pardon can be read here.  Daniel Perry was released from prison within an hour of the message from Abbott.  The corporate media is outraged, producing a flurry of articles calling the move a “political stunt.”

  But here’s the bottom line:  Perry was working as an Uber driver, meaning he was doing his job at the time which requires him to make rounds throughout the city of Austin.  Protesters deliberately blocked the roads (which is illegal), then surrounded and attacked Perry’s vehicle for doing nothing more than honking his horn at them.  We have seen this same scenario thousands of times across the US from far-left mobs and they seem to believe this behavior is protected by free speech laws; it’s not. 

  During the trial a lot of attention was focused on whether or not Garret Foster raised the muzzle of his rifle enough to present a threat, but Perry was already under threat by an angry crowd blocking the road and thrashing his car.  At the very least, Perry’s sentencing should have taken the frightening nature of the situation into account.  But again, he was being made into an example.  Greg Abbott has been accused of playing politics, but the conviction of Daniel Perry was political from the very beginning.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 05/17/2024 – 20:00

• Hezbollah Launches First-Ever Airstrike On Israeli Territory
  Hezbollah Launches First-Ever Airstrike On Israeli Territory

  Via The Cradle

  Hezbollah launched the first-ever Lebanese airstrike on an Israeli target on Friday, using a never-before-seen drone for the operation. 

  “In support of our steadfast Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip and in support of their brave and honorable resistance, the Islamic Resistance attacked at 1:38 pm on Thursday the Metulla site, its garrison, and its vehicles with an offensive drone armed with two S5 missiles,” Hezbollah said in a statement Thursday afternoon, marking the sixth of 13 operations that day. 

  

  “When it reached its designated point, it fired missiles at one of its vehicles and the elements gathered around it, killing and wounding them. After that, it continued its assault on its designated target and hit it accurately,” the statement added. 

  Hezbollah released footage of its drone strike on Metulla. Two missiles are seen being fired from each side of the drone, which then descends towards its final target and explodes.

  Watch the newly published Hezbollah footage of its first ever “airstrike” operation in action:

  ⚡️⭕️ 🔥 FOOTAGE OF HEZBOLLAH’S FIRST AIRSTRIKE IN HISTORY

  – The military media publishes :

  Video scenes from the operation of the Islamic Resistance targeting the Metulla site of the #Israeli enemy army, with a new attack drone armed with S5 missiles. pic.twitter.com/YXaO5fSDLr

  — Middle East Observer (@ME_Observer_) May 16, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Three Israeli soldiers were reportedly injured – with one seriously wounded – in the drone attack. Coinciding with Israel’s brutal assault on Rafah and its relentless attacks across the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah has stepped up its operations in recent days. 

  While it has increasingly deployed the use of attack drones in its operations over the past several months, this is the first time a drone equipped with missiles has been used to attack targets from above – not only since the start of this war but for the first time in Lebanon’s history. 

  Hebrew news outlet Channel 13 noted this week that Hezbollah’s attacks have become bolder and more sophisticated, and are resulting in more Israeli casualties. 

  In response to Israeli airstrikes on eastern Lebanon the day prior, Hezbollah also announced on Thursday a drone attack on Elbit Systems, the Israel-based international military technology company. 

  The Lebanese Shia paramilitary group backed by Iran has been rolling out increasingly sophisticated weaponry used against northern Israel…

  I’ve been watching and covering this war for the past 7 months, it’s obvious that on the Lebanese front there are certain weapons that are too effective and Israel has no solution for, anti tank guided missiles and drones. A couple of days ago we saw how Hezbollah used the new… https://t.co/mkl9FoQ2qi pic.twitter.com/6m5SpSrHkP

  — Ali Hashem علي هاشم (@alihashem_tv) May 16, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  It also targeted the David Cohen factory in Tel Hai, north of the Kiryat Shmona settlement. One of Hezbollah’s many operations on Wednesday targeted Israel’s Sky Dew aerostat at the Ilania base west of Tiberias. The Israeli army confirmed that a “sensitive” facility was hit. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 05/17/2024 – 19:40

• "The Economics Just Don't Work": Demand For Electric Semis Plunges Due To High Costs
  “The Economics Just Don’t Work”: Demand For Electric Semis Plunges Due To High Costs

  For the last year, we’ve been writing extensively about how high costs and low demand have made EVs uneconomical – and, as a result, unpopular to produce – for the auto industry.

  It turns out unionized employees extorting you on labor costs while the government mandates you produce a money-losing product isn’t a combination that leads to prosperity and profit. Go figure. 

  Now, it isn’t just car manufacturers that are balking from the idea of all electric vehicles: the trucking industry, once expected to eventually make the shift to all electric as well, is seeing tepid demand for new rigs, according to a new Wall Street Journal article. 

  “The economics just don’t work for most companies,” Robert Sanchez, the chief executive of Ryder, said earlier this month. 

  Ryder’s experience highlights the difficulties state and federal governments encounter in encouraging truckers to transition from polluting diesel rigs to zero-emissions vehicles, the report says.

  It also indicates that significant improvements in battery weight, range, and charging times are necessary for battery-electric trucks to effectively compete with diesel rigs in the cost-sensitive freight industry.

  Rakesh Aneja, head of eMobility at Daimler Truck North America, told Wall Street Journal: “Quite frankly, demand has not been as strong as what we would like.”

  Aneja said orders for its Freightliner eCascadia battery-electric semi truck are about the same this year as they were in 2023. 

  Battery-electric trucks are about three times more expensive than diesel rigs, the Journal notes. And while federal and state programs help offset purchase costs, significant hurdles remain due to high operating costs and setup challenges.

  

  Truckers find these electric trucks difficult and costly to run, with installation of on-site charging facilities taking years. These trucks travel less than half the distance of diesel rigs per charge and require several hours to recharge.

  Ryder launched a service a year ago to assist companies in setting up and maintaining battery-powered fleets. So far, it has sold only 60 vehicles, mostly light-duty trucks. Three companies use five battery-electric heavy-duty trucks, but only within yards for shuttling trailers.

  Sanchez noted that unlike individual electric car buyers, companies will only switch to battery-electric trucks when they can compete with diesel on operational costs.

  The cost of changing a fleet over is also expensive. Using data from 13,000 vehicles, Ryder analyzed the annual operating expenses of battery-electric commercial trucks and found they are significantly higher than those of diesel rigs. The analysis, assuming existing fast-charging infrastructure, considered costs like vehicle purchase, maintenance, labor, and fuel.

  Ryder found that light-duty battery-electric vans increase annual operating costs by several percentage points, with the gap widening for heavier trucks. Operating battery-electric big rigs costs about twice as much annually as diesel trucks.

  In California, converting a fleet of 25 commercial vehicles, including 10 heavy-duty trucks, from diesel to battery power would raise annual operating costs by 56%, or $3.4 million. In Georgia, the increase would be 67%, or $3.7 million. Ryder stated that these higher costs would add 0.5% to 1% to inflation.

  The American Trucking Associations said of the U.S. EPA’s new rules mandating more BEV semi truck sales by the end of the decade: “Considering that 96% of U.S. trucking companies operate 10 or fewer trucks, these mandates are simply cost-prohibitive for most truckers.” 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 05/17/2024 – 19:20

• Why The Dollar Will Lose Its Status As Global Reserve Currency
  Why The Dollar Will Lose Its Status As Global Reserve Currency

  Authored by James Hickman via SchiffSovereign.com,

  By the early 400s, the Roman Empire was coming apart at the seams and in desperate need of strong, competent leadership. In theory, Honorius should have been the right man for the job.

  Born into the royal household in Constantinople, Honorius had been groomed to rule, practically since birth, by the finest experts in the realm. So even as a young man, Honorius had already accumulated decades of experience.

  Yet Rome’s foreign adversaries rightfully believed Honorius to be weak, out of touch, divisive, and completely inept.

  He had entered into bonehead peace treaties that strengthened Rome’s enemies. He paid vast sums of money to some of their most powerful rivals and received practically nothing in return. He made virtually no attempt to secure Roman borders, leaving the empire open to be ravaged by barbarians.

  Inflation was high. Taxes were high. Economic production declined. Roman military power declined. And all of Rome’s foreign adversaries were emboldened.

  To a casual observer it would have almost seemed as if Honorius went out of his way to make the Empire weaker.

  One of Rome’s biggest threats came in the year 408, when the barbarian king Alaric invaded Italy; imperial defenses were so non-existent at that point that ancient historians described Alaric’s march towards Rome as unopposed and leisurely, as if they were “at some festival” rather than an invasion.

  Alaric and his army arrived to the city of Rome in the autumn of 408 AD and immediately positioned their forces to cut off any supplies. No food could enter the city, and before long, its residents began to starve.

  Historians have passed down horrific stories of cannibalism– including women eating their own children in order to survive.

  Rather than send troops and fight, however, Honorius agreed to pay a massive ransom to Alaric, including 5,000 pounds of gold, 30,000 pounds of silver, and literally tons of other real assets and commodities.

  (The equivalent in today’s money, adjusted for population, would be billions of dollars… similar to what the US released to Iran in a prisoner swap last year.)

  Naturally Honorius didn’t have such a vast sum in his treasury… so Romans were forced to strip down and melt their shrines and statues in order to pay Alaric’s ransom.

  Ironically, one of the statues they melted was a monument to Virtus, the Roman god of bravery and strength… leading the ancient historian Zosimus to conclude that “all which remained of Roman valor and intrepidity was totally extinguished.”

  Rome had spent two centuries in the early days of the empire– from the rise of Augustus in 27 BC to the death of Marcus Aurelius in 180 AD– as the clear, unrivaled superpower. Almost no one dared mess with Rome, and few who did ever lived to tell the tale.

  Modern scholars typically view the official “fall” of the Western Roman Empire in the year 476. But it’s pretty clear that the collapse of Roman power and prestige took place decades before.

  When Rome was ransomed in 408 (then sacked in 410), it was obvious to everyone at the time that the Emperor no longer had a grip on power.

  And before long, most of the lands in the West that Rome had once dominated– Italy, Spain, France, Britain, North Africa, etc. were under control of various Barbarian tribes and kingdoms.

  The Visigoths, Ostrogoths, Vandals, Franks, Angles, Saxons, Burgundians, Berbers, etc. all established independent kingdoms. And for a while, there was no dominant superpower in western Europe. It was a multi-polar world. And the transition was rather abrupt.

  This is what I think is happening now– we’re experiencing a similar transition, and it seems equally abrupt.

  The United States has been the world’s dominant superpower for decades. But like Rome in the later stage of its empire, the US is clearly in decline. This should not be a controversial statement.

  

  Let’s not be dramatic; it’s important to stay focused on facts and reality. The US economy is still vast and potent, and the country is blessed with an abundance of natural resources– incredibly fertile farmland, some of the world’s largest freshwater resources, and incalculable reserves of energy and other key commodities.

  In fact, it’s amazing the people in charge have managed to screw it up so badly. And yet they have.

  The national debt is out of control, rising by trillions of dollars each year. Debt growth, in fact, substantially outpaces US economic growth.

  Social Security is insolvent, and the program’s own trustees (including the US Treasury Secretary) admit that its major trust fund will run out of money in just nine years.

  The people in charge never seem to miss an opportunity to dismantle capitalism (i.e. the economic system that created so much prosperity to begin with) brick by brick.

  Then there are ubiquitous social crises: public prosecutors who refuse to enforce the law; the weaponization of the justice system; the southern border fiasco; declining birth rates; extraordinary social divisions that are most recently evidenced by the anti-Israel protests.

  And most of all the US constantly shows off its incredibly dysfunctional government that can’t manage to agree on anything, from the budget to the debt ceiling. The President has obvious cognitive disabilities and makes the most bizarre decisions to enrich America’s enemies.

  Are these problems fixable? Yes. Will they be fixed? Maybe. But as we used to say in the military, “hope is not a course of action”.

  Plotting this current trajectory to its natural conclusion leads me to believe that the world will enter a new “barbarian kingdom” paradigm in which there is no dominant superpower.

  Certainly, there are a number of rising rivals today. But no one is powerful enough to assume the leading role in the world.

  China has a massive population and a huge economy. But it too has way too many problems… with the obvious challenge that no one trusts the Communist Party. So, most likely China will not be the dominant superpower.

  India’s economy will eventually surpass China’s, and it has an even bigger population. But India isn’t even close to the ballpark of being the world’s superpower.

  Then there’s Europe. Combined, it still has a massive economic and trade union. But it has also been in major decline… with multiple social crises like low birth rates and a migrant invasion.

  Then there are the energy powers like Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Indonesia; they are far too small to dominate the world, but they have the power to menace and disrupt it.

  The bottom line is that the US is no longer strong enough to lead the world and keep adversarial nations in check. And it’s clear that other countries are already adapting to this reality.

  Earlier this month, for example, China successfully launched a rocket to the moon as part of a multi-decade mission to establish an International Lunar Research Station.

  By 2045, China hopes to construct a large, city-like base along with several international partners including Russia, Pakistan, Thailand, South Africa, Venezuela, Azerbaijan, Belarus, and Egypt. Turkey and Nicaragua are also interested in joining.

  This is pretty remarkable given how many nations are participating, even if just nominally. Yet the US isn’t part of the consortium.

  This would have been unthinkable a few decades ago. But today the rest of the world realizes that they no longer need American funding, leadership, or expertise.

  We can see similar examples everywhere, most notably in Israel and Ukraine. And I believe one of the next shoes to drop will be the US dollar.

  After all, if the rest of the world doesn’t need the US for space exploration, and they can ignore the US when it comes down to World War 3, then why should they need the US dollar anymore?

  The dollar was the clear and obvious choice as the global reserve currency back when America was the undisputed superpower. But today it’s a different world.

  Foreign nations continuing to rely on the dollar ultimately means governments and central banks buying US government bonds. And why should they take such a risk when the national debt is already 120% of GDP?

  In addition, Congress passed a new law a few weeks ago authorizing the Treasury Department to confiscate US dollar assets of any country it deems an “aggressor state.”

  While people might think this is a morally righteous idea, the reality is that it will only turn off foreign investors. Why should China, Saudi Arabia, or anyone else buy US government bonds when they can be confiscated in a heartbeat?

  All of this ultimately leads to a world in which the US dollar is no longer the dominant reserve currency. We’re already starting to see signs of that shift, and it could be in full swing by the end of the decade.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 05/17/2024 – 19:00

• America's Dairy Cow Replacement Inventory Collapses To Two-Decade Low 
  America’s Dairy Cow Replacement Inventory Collapses To Two-Decade Low 

  The nation’s food supply chain remains under stress. We’ve been sounding the alarm on America’s beef cattle supply dwindling to the lowest levels in over half a century.

  Now, Bloomberg reports that dairy farms are pivoting breeding programs toward beef-on-dairy hybrids, capitalizing on the low beef herds amid last year’s crushing milk glut. However, this comes with mounting risks as the nation’s dairy herd begins to crack.

  Hybrid calves are produced by artificially inseminating a dairy cow with semen from a beef bull. This has created a massive upside for struggling dairy farmers battered by volatile milk prices and an unforgiving glut in recent years. Midwest farmers last year were forced to dump tens of thousands of gallons of milk down the drain. 

  

  “Milk prices are up and down and so farmers are always looking for a way to offset costs to be as efficient as possible,” said Amy Penterman, the owner of Dutch Dairy, which breeds approximately 70% of its 900-cow milking herd for beef.

  Penterman explained the new revenue stream is “rewarding because the beef supply has diminished over the last few years. We’re able to add that extra supply into the market to keep the cost down for our consumers.”

  The latest USDA data shows the nation’s beef cattle herd plunged to its lowest level since 1951, primarily due to persistent droughts across the Midwest, surging diesel and feed costs, and high interest rates. Higher costs have forced ranchers to cull an increasing number of beef cows. 

  

  On Wednesday, Tyson Foods CEO Donnie King told the audience at the BMO Global Farm to Market Conference in Toronto that he’s still uncertain when US ranchers will rebuild beef herds meaningfully.

  One major problem with dairy farms pivoting towards beef-on-dairy hybrids to capitalize on soaring beef prices is the collapse of the replacement dairy cow inventory. 

  Data from the USDA already shows that the number of available replacement cows for dairy herds in January 2024 plunged to lows not seen since 2004. 

  

  Rabobank’s Lucas Fuess warned that if milk prices were to jump, low inventories and higher prices for replacement cows could cause farmers to experience severe margin compression. 

  Nate Donnay, the director of dairy market insight at StoneX Financial, said the number of replacement dairy cows is already “down to the minimum level” needed to maintain the dairy herd.

  “Ten years from now, the beef herd’s probably going to get too big again and prices will be terrible and maybe they don’t want these dairy animals anymore,” Donnay said, adding, “But for the next couple of years, that demand for dairy animals into the beef herd is probably going to stay strong.”

  Yet another rolling disaster for the nation’s food supply chain. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 05/17/2024 – 18:40

• Full Fifth Circuit Hears Arguments Over the Fate Of Texas' Floating Border Wall
  Full Fifth Circuit Hears Arguments Over the Fate Of Texas’ Floating Border Wall

  Authored by Bill Pan via The Epoch Times,

  The legal saga over the fate of a 1,000-foot floating barrier on the Rio Grande has entered a new phase.

  

  Texas Gov. Greg Abbott last summer ordered the deployment of the string of giant orange buoys in the river near Eagle Pass. As a part of Operation Lone Star, the Republican governor’s signature initiative aimed to curb illegal border crossings from Mexico into his state, the buoys are anchored to the bottom and themselves rotate so that people can’t climb over or swim under them.

  Following the installation of the barrier, the Biden administration sued Texas, demanding that it be taken down. Attorneys for Texas invoked the Constitutional right for each state to defend itself against “invasion”—in Texas’ case, by those illegally crossing the river, but that self-defense argument was rejected by the lower court, as did by a split three-judge panel of the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals.

  Arguing on Wednesday before a full, 17-member Fifth Circuit, attorneys for both Texas and the U.S. Department of Justice largely focused on the question of whether Mr. Abbott’s floating wall violates a Reconstruction-era law regulating the use of waterways.

  The law, dubbed the Rivers and Harbors Appropriation Act of 1899, prohibits the “creation of obstruction … to the navigable capacity of the waters” unless approved by Congress and permitted by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers—the entity responsible for the maintenance of the country’s waterway system to ensure safe passage of vessels.

  The Rio Grande is not subject to the 125-year-old law, Texas told the court, arguing that the stretch of river is too rocky and shallow to be reasonably called a “navigable waterway.”

  “For most of its length and much of its storied history, the Rio Grande has been little more than a creek with an excellent publicist,” said Lanora Pettit, the principal deputy solicitor general of Texas.

  “If the U.S. is right, then any body of water would be deemed navigable and thereby subject to federal jurisdiction.”

  Ms. Pettit further argued that, for more than a century, the Rivers and Harbors Appropriation Act had been interpreted as applying only to waterways that, “in their ordinary or natural condition, serves [as] the artery of interstate commerce across which trade or travel can be or is conducted.”

  That interpretation apparently does not fit the Rio Grande, which “has too many rocks and not enough water,” she argued. “The only reason we have water in that stretch [where the buoys were installed] is because of the irrigation, and irrigation infrastructure only puts it about 18 inches deep.”

  Arguing for the Justice Department, attorney Michael Gray urged circuit judges to uphold the district judge’s ruling that the Rio Grande was historically navigable. He pointed to past ferry traffic in the area, as well as the use of patrol boats by border enforcers.

  “The most prominent [evidence] being ferry traffic, which is expressly foreign commerce conducted on the river by floating structures, boats,” Mr. Gray told the court. “That foreign commerce is sufficient to bring the area within Congress’s power … to regulate that commerce.”

  Mr. Gray also claimed that the floating wall, which was expected to deter illegal immigration, interfered with the U.S. Border Patrol officers performing their duties.

  “The Border Patrol is on the river basically every day,” he said, emphasizing that the Border Patrol had conducted 249 rescues on the Rio Grande between 2018 and 2023. “There was evidence here that any obstruction to the river, including this obstruction could impair response times of the Border Patrol as the Border Patrol does rescues on the river.”

  The attorneys also briefly made their case on whether the floating barrier counts as a constitutional means of defending Texas against an invasion.

  “Assuming that the question of invasion is not justiciable, then under what circumstances can the United States thwart that attempt at self defense?” Chief Judge Edith Jones, a Ronald Reagan appointee, asked Mr. Gray.

  “You need some organized hostile force,” the DOJ lawyer replied, arguing that the influx of illegal immigrants is not the same kind of “invasion” the Constitution’s framers had in their minds.

  “[Texas government’s] argument is, once they say invasion, ‘We can do anything we want for as long as we want,’” he said. “We don’t think that’s right.”

  The Fifth Circuit did not indicate when they would rule.

  The Fifth Circuit, headquartered in New Orleans, Louisiana, is also handling another dispute between Texas and the U.S. government. This separate case centers around Shelby Park, a 47-acre public park in Eagle Pass that the federal government had been using as a staging area to process illegal immigrants.

  In January, Texas National Guard soldiers deployed by Mr. Abbott took control of Shelby Park, and have since used roadblocks and concertina wires to prevent Border Patrol officers from processing migrants in the area.

  “The federal government has broken the compact between the United States and the States,” Mr. Abbott said after the U.S. Department of Homeland Security demanded that he grant Border Patrol agents access to the park. “Instead of prosecuting immigrants for the federal crime of illegal entry, President Biden has sent his lawyers into federal courts to sue Texas for taking action to secure the border.”

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 05/17/2024 – 18:20

• Jeff Currie, The Copper Bull: "Most Compelling Trade I've Seen In My 30-Year Trading Career"
  Jeff Currie, The Copper Bull: “Most Compelling Trade I’ve Seen In My 30-Year Trading Career”

  Jeff Currie, who led commodities research at Goldman Sachs for nearly three decades and now serves as the chief strategy officer of the energy pathways team at Carlyle Group, appeared on Bloomberg’s Odd Lots to discuss why copper is the best trade he has seen in his entire career.

  The drive towards electrification, whether that’s electric vehicles and data centers powering artificial intelligence, as well as reshoring manufacturing trends, the need to expand the nation’s power grid to handle surging load demand is in full swing but comes as new copper mining capacity has dwindled, and a squeeze on the Comex exchange has sent prices to record highs. 

  

  Odd Lots’ Joe Weisenthal began by introducing Currie and referencing his past comments from as early as 2021 about the beginning of a commodity supercycle: 

  We’re going to talk to Jeff Currie. So we’ve had him on the podcast at least a couple of times before, back in 2021. We talked to him and he talked about this idea of like a new commodity supercycle, and of course oil was surging and all these commodities were surging as the global economy was reopening.

  Then we talked to him again in 2022 and he said that copper specifically may end up being one of the, the tightest commodity markets he’s ever seen. So real issues with supply and again, looking pretty good these days.

  So we are back with Jeff Currie, who is now in a new role. So when we talked to him before, he was the head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, but today he’s the chief strategy officer of Energy Pathways at the Carlyle Group. So Jeff, thank you so much for coming back on Odd Lots. 

  A little more than 11 minutes into the conversation, Odd Lots’ Tracy Alloway asked Currie: 

  Alright, I have a very important question for Jeff, which is, are you wearing a copper bracelet right now?

  The commodities veteran responded:

  You know, it is the most compelling trade I have ever seen in my 30 plus years of doing this. You look at the demand story, it’s got green CapEx, it’s got AI, remember AI can’t happen without the energy demand and the constraint on the electricity grid is going to be copper.

  And then you have the military demand. So unprecedented demand growth against unprecedented weakness in supply growth because we have not been investing, it’s teed you up for what I would argue is the most bullish commodity that I actually, I just quote many of our clients and other market participants say, you know, it’s the highest conviction trade they’ve ever seen.

  Currie’s comments come as a historic Comex copper short squeeze is underway this week. 

  It all started one month ago, when we reported “US, UK Banned Deliveries Of Russian Copper, Nickel And Aluminum To Western Metals Exchanges.” This sparked a massive dislocation for copper prices traded in New York and other commodity exchanges has rocked the global market for the base metal and prompted a frantic dash for supplies to ship to the US.

  

  We have discussed the fundamental case for copper:

  •  “Goldman Says “Copper’s Time Is Now””

  •  “The Copper Supply Shortage Is Here“

  • “Copper “Is Having A Cocoa Moment””

  • Goldbugs Waited Years For A Massive Comex Short Squeeze, And Finally Got It… Just In The Wrong Metal

  And most notably in the “the Next AI Trade“… 

  Back to Currie’s Odd Lots interview. He pointed the acronym “RED” summarizes the three major structural tailwinds driving copper demand forward (summarized by Bloomberg);

  The ‘R’ stands for redistribution policies: As he argues, lower-income groups have been consuming “a greater share of commodities than the higher-income groups. That’s very much alive and kicking. You look at the low unemployment rate, who’s the biggest benefactor of that? It is the lower-income groups, and policies still very much in play all over the world right now reinforcing these lower-income groups in the consumption of commodities.”

  The ‘E’ stands for environment policy, which Currie describes as having been “turbocharged” in recent years.

  “You have the IRA, the REPowerEU, China,” he says. “Now, part of the reason why copper’s rallied recently [is that] China’s growth was over 100% in green CapEx last year, 30% this year. So everywhere you look in the world, we see environmental policy through green CapEx stimulating demand for commodities.”

  And finally, the ‘D’ stands for deglobilization, though it could also stand for defense.

  “Look at the potential military spend in the US — $95 billion on munitions,” he says. “We look at what’s going on in places like Germany, $100 billion dollars of military spend. So you’ve got all three going much stronger than what we would’ve thought two-to-three years ago.”

  As for the beginning of the upswing in the commodity supercycle, well, the  Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index this week reached its highest point in a year. 

  And this is not great news for Fed Chair Powell’s inflation fight. However, for the time being, the OER component of the CPI basket will continue to pressure inflation. 

  

  What’s ominous is the surge in spot commodity prices. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 05/17/2024 – 18:00

• NBC Animal Documentary Claims "This Is A Queer Planet"
  NBC Animal Documentary Claims “This Is A Queer Planet”

  Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Modernity.news,

  A documentary set to be broadcast by NBC asserts that we live on a “queer planet,” in which homosexuality is widespread in the animal kingdom and there are more than two genders.

  

  Yes, really.

  The documentary, set to be aired on June 6, features one “expert” stating, “Everything you were taught as a kid is wrong.”

  “Gay penguins, bisexual lions, sex changing clown fish,” the narration, voiced by gay actor Andrew Rannells, claims are all evidence that “this is a queer planet.”

  “Queer Planet” will be released in June.

  The documentary by NBC is focused on “LGBTQI+ tolerance” among the animal kingdom…

  No, this is not satire. pic.twitter.com/sf9ES6bXuG

  — End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) May 16, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The trailer then shows two women, one with blue hair, asserting that “Queerness has always existed” and that “It’s only in humans that we have such a stigma about it.”

  Apparently, this “stigma” revolves around having it shoved in your face 24/7 on television, TV commercials, within the education system, and publicly shaming or even arresting and prosecuting anyone who doesn’t embrace it.

  “The idea of just having two fixed sexes is clearly out of style,” the narration continues, with another short haired woman with tattoos claiming, “Mother nature is pretty open minded.”

  Nature is apparently “full of queer surprises,” according to the documentary.

  I’m not sure that aspiring to behave like animals is quite the win that LGBT activists think it is.

  Animals practice all kinds of behaviors which if they were mimicked by humans would lead to the collapse of civilization.

  Lions practice infanticide and many other species eat their own offspring, should we start normalizing that too?

  Dolphins torture and murder porpoises for fun, should we do the same?

  Sea otters rape and murder baby seals, should we follow suit?

  Explorer George Murray Levick documented how Adelie penguins gang-rape females and have sex with the ground, other males, and dead females lying frozen. Should we normalize necrophilia?

  Tiger sharks kill their own siblings in the womb, while hyena cubs start fighting and killing each other as soon as they are born, is that to be celebrated?

  Cats and other animals engage in wilfully sadistic behavior for fun, should humans emulate that too?

  The narrative used to be that while homosexuality does occur within the animal kingdom, it is more about base sexual gratification and has little to do with advancing a species.

  In order to abolish the “stigma” surrounding homosexuality in humans (which doesn’t exist since it’s promoted everywhere), that narrative is now apparently changing.

  *  *  *

  Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 05/17/2024 – 17:40

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• US Wars Are Making Türkiye's Relationship With The West Politically Untenable
  US Wars Are Making Türkiye’s Relationship With The West Politically Untenable

  Authored by Conor Gallagher via NakedCapitalism.com,

  Turkish public opinion of the West dropped due to the Iraq War and has not recovered. There have been almost constant issues since, with both sides fanning the flames – the US with its arrogance and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for using the disputes for political gain. Beneath the surface, however, they continue to cooperate on a wide range of issues.

  That might get more difficult. The fact is the US, by supporting Israel’s “plausible” genocide in Gaza, has managed to find an issue that could cause an irreparable break between the West and the vast majority of Turkish citizens, which could make it politically toxic for Erdogan or anyone else to remain partially aligned with the West.

  For months after October 7, Erdogan paid lip service to the Palestinian cause while trade kept flowing between Turkiye and Israel. Voters forced him to take a firmer stand at the polls on March 31 when Erdogan’s Justice and Development (AK) Party lost the popular vote for the first time since 2002 – partially due to the government response to Israel’s war in Gaza (the other big issue was the economy).

  The Islamist far-right New Welfare Party (YRP) left Erdogan’s ruling People’s Alliance and campaigned on ending trade with Israel, and as a result it became the third largest party nationwide with 6.2 percent of the vote and won 60 municipalities.

  A contrite Erdogan said the AKP would begin listening more to voters’ concerns.

  On May 2, the news broke that Türkiye is halting all trade with Israel, which in theory could be a major blow to the latter. Türkiye is the fifth-largest source of Israeli imports, which include high-value products like iron, plastic and steel in addition to basic goods such as food items and textiles. In 2022, iron and steel topped the list of Turkish exports to Israel, and were together worth $1.19 billion.

  

  The US surprisingly bit its tongue over Türkiye’s announcement with State Department Spokesman Matthew Miller saying that “they are both allies of ours, and we would encourage them to work through their differences.” The fact is there isn’t a whole lot the US can do as Washington has already pushed so much on the Ukraine issue, trying to do so on the issue of the slaughter in Gaza, which has inflamed public opinion in Türkiye, would be unwise. Miller’s statement also ignores the fact that “their differences” could be solved by the US forcing Israel to put an end to its “plausible” genocide.

  Israel’s Foreign Minister said on May 9 that Erdogan was retreating on his trade restrictions only for Ankara to deny that’s the case. That makes the statement from Israel sound either imprudent or like more of a threat.

  There are still questions of just how firm Erdogan and the Turks are on the trade suspension.

  On May 5, the Israeli financial daily Globes reported the following:

  Türkiye has not yet halted the loading of oil tankers at Ceyhan port bound for Israel, according to Israeli sources. Azerbaijan is an important supplier of oil to Israel, via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, at the end of which the oil is loaded onto tankers that bring it to Haifa.

  Azerbaijan and Türkiye are strong allies, and Israel enjoys probably its closest ties with a majority Muslim nation with Azerbaijan and is a major supplier of arms to the Caspian country. From 2016 to 2020 Tel Aviv accounted for 69 percent of Azerbaijan’s major arms imports, including loitering munitions (they have been likened to missiles that can hunt for a target while directed from a control station).  The weapons gained notoriety in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War.

  Israel is one of the top customers for Azerbaijani oil, importing $297 million worth in January.

  If Erdogan really wanted to get tough on Israel and lead the Muslim world response as he’s claimed, he could not only stop the transit of Azerbaijani oil, but maybe even try to do something about other suppliers. After Azerbaijan, the second biggest exporter of oil to Israel is Kazakhstan, which sends it through the Chevron-, ExxonMobil-, and Shell-controlled Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) pipeline to the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk.

  

  Article 5 of the 1936 Montreux Convention states that if Türkiye is a belligerent, neutral merchant vessels may transit the straits by day through designated routes, but only if they do not assist the enemy.

  Instead, Israel is beginning to send back its diplomats to Türkiye, half a year after it withdrew them over security concerns, and there are also rumblings about Türkiye rerouting exports through a middleman:

  One proposed solution is to transport the products through European countries, according to the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper.

  Israeli shipping company iShip Forwarding has suggested a workaround to bypass the ban by establishing a new logistical route where Turkish products are first transported to third countries, and from there, to Israel.This solution allows Turkish manufacturers to continue supplying goods to Israel without violating the ban and without their knowledge that the products are reaching Israel. The shipping company has refused to disclose the specific third country through which the shipment passes, but the Israeli newspaper mentioned Bulgaria and Romania among others. This transit would incur additional costs on the shipment but ensures the continuous flow of goods.

  If these reports of Türkiye already softening its trade suspension with Israel are true, more blowback can be expected as Turks are paying close attention to this issue – demonstrated by Erdogan being unable to get away with his usual talk-but-no-action strategy in the recent local elections.

  And the longer Erdogan and the higher ups in Türkiye try to keep a lid on popular backlash against Israel and its partners in the West, the more likely it is that the situation explodes.

  The Bigger Picture – Türkiye and the West

  The number of issues between Ankara and the West over the past few decades are almost too numerous to count. Here’s just a brief list:

  • Sanctions and more sanctions. The US sanctions Turkish individuals and companies for “aiding Russia,” for “aiding Iran,” and the US is already threatening to slap on more sanctions over Turkish firms’ exports to Russia. A quick search on the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control site turns up a whopping 232 sanctioned Turkish individuals or entities.  This is not a great look when Türkiye is going through its worst economic crisis in two decades.

  • Türkiye was snubbed by the EU.

  • Since the 1990s, Ankara asked NATO multiple times to deploy early warning systems and Patriot missiles to Türkiye, but it never came to pass. In 2017 Russia sold Türkiye its S-400 missile defense systems, which are arguably superior to anything the West has. In response the US expelled Türkiye from its F-35 program and sanctioned the country’s defense industry organization and its leaders.

  • Possible US involvement in failed 2016 coup attempt.

  • US proxy forces in Ukraine have reportedly tried to sabotage pipelines between Russia and Türkiye over the past year.

  • Western support of Kurds to the point there exists the possibility of Turkish soldiers coming face to face in the field with American soldiers, who are supporting the YPG in Syria.

  • The US abandoned its largely neutral stance on Türkiye’s relationship with both Greece and Cyprus. Washington is ramping up military aid to Greece, turning a port near the Turkish border into a naval base, and sending weaponry to Cyprus after ending a decades-old ban on arms sales.

  This has all taken place despite Türkiye’s status as the second most important member of NATO just based on its geographic position, which includes controlling access to the Black Sea. These issues highlight a fundamental difference in how the two sides view the alliance: while Türkiye views itself as something more than just a regional power and wants to be treated as such, the US essentially wants Ankara to follow orders.

  For now, the relationship continues largely out of economic necessity. While Turkiye imports cheap and reliable energy from Russia, its factories produce goods for the European market.

  But economic concerns can be overruled by popular opinion, as we have seen by Erdogan being mostly forced by voters to start taking more active measures against Israel despite Türkiye’s economic woes. There are no signs that the trajectory of US-Israel attitudes and actions are going to change, and as a result it’s difficult to see how Turkish public opposition to the US-led West doesn’t continue to stiffen.  Sinem Adar, an associate at the Center for Applied Türkiye Studies at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, writing at War on the Rocks:

  Türkiye’s ruling elites believe that “the West lacks strategic thinking and has increasingly become estranged from the rest of the world in the face of various issues including relations with China, migration and terror, and the shift in economic gravity from the West to the East.”

  For Ankara, the unequivocal and unconditional support that the Biden administration gives Israel confirms this belief. Triggering a convergence between the policies of Türkiye, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and other countries, pro-government journalists expect that the conflict would lead to an increasing isolation of Israel. Regardless of their ideological affiliation, most Turkish political actors tend to see the recent conflict in Gaza as one between the so-called West (led by the United States) and the East. Since the disputed attack at the al-Ahli hospital in Gaza City, there have been calls on the government to ally with countries in the Global South to “stop the U.S.-Israeli alliance.”

  Yet the proposed methods vary. Addressing an emergency session of the Organization for Islamic Cooperation on Oct. 18, Fidan called upon Muslim countries to act with “self-confidence” and “challenge the hegemonic narrative that has been imposed on them,” but without offering a concrete roadmap for how to do that. Devlet Bahçeli, the leader of the AKP’s junior partner, the Nationalist Movement Party, said Türkiye should intervene militarily if there is no ceasefire. Those critical of Ankara’s civilizationist aspirations yet share its aspirations for a foreign policy independent from the West call for booting U.S. military members at Incirlik Air Force Base and the Kürecik Radar Station in Malatya.

  While the main opposition remains committed to the West and even the usually nimble Erdogan has looked a bit slow in keeping up with public opinion on the Palestine issue, others are beginning to fill the gaps, speaking out against the lack of Turkish action on Palestine, as well as increasingly blaming NATO.

  There were protests at the American Incirlik air base in November. Protestors tried to storm the base and fought with police in riot gear who fired tear gas and used water cannons to disperse the crowds. The base in southern Türkiye is reportedly still used by the US to deliver weapons to Israel. There’s also the fact that Incirlik hosts US nuclear weapons, which has become increasingly controversial. Asked about it before the 2020 election, Biden said he is “worried.”

  According to Nordic Monitor, the protests were at least partially organized by the Turkish intelligence agency MIT, which in a bid to give Erdogan more leverage in talks with DC, “engaged a jihadist charity organization to orchestrate a nationwide march.” Let’s hope MIT doesn’t lose control of its assets.

  

  There have also been protests at NATO’s Kürecik Radar Station in southeastern Türkiye, where thousands chanted against Israel and NATO. Although Türkiye agreed to host the radar station under the condition that information gathered there only be shared with NATO member states, it is widely believed Israel also receives the information. Iran criticized Türkiye when the radar was being installed back in 2011, saying it would help to protect Israel from Iranian missile attacks in case of a war.

  Seeing as the US and Israel are joined at the hip, Israel’s actions in Gaza also increase opposition in Türkiye to the US and NATO. And this trend predates Israel’s “plausible” genocide:

  A poll conducted in December 2022 by the Turkish company Gezici found that 72.8% of Turkish citizens polled were in favor of good relations with Russia. By comparison, nearly 90% perceive the United States as a hostile country. It also revealed that 24.2% of citizens believe that Russia is hostile, while 62.6% believe that Russia is a friendly country. Similarly, more than 60% of respondents said that Russia contributes positively to the Turkish economy.

  Those results are astounding. Russia and Türkiye share a long, difficult history, and as recently as 2016, Russia was seen by the public as the biggest threat to Türkiye. Only 16 percent of Turks had a favorable opinion of Russia in 2014. The major reversal is likely the result of a sustained campaign by Russia to improve ties through energy links and the construction of Türkiye’s first nuclear power plant. Further US heavy handedness haven’t helped, and there’s a strong possibility that due to the unpopularity of the US in Türkiye, that when Russia’s ties deteriorate with the West it is held in higher regard in Türkiye.

  While low opinions of the West have persisted since the Iraq War, there are many differences between then and today that make the situation more volatile.

  The US is seen as worsening Türkiye’s economic crisis by applying sanctions over a perceived lack of enthusiasm for the economic war against Russia. (Türkiye has not joined the West’s sanctions against Russia and has profited from acting as a middleman between Russia and other countries.)

  But most of all, it is the fact that the US could put a stop to the daily carnage in Gaza that is widely reported across Türkiye day after day going on seven months now, and it chooses not to.

  These issues helped propel the rightwing New Welfare Party (YRP) to third place in recent elections. YRP demands an end to trade with Israel and the closure of NATO’s Kürecik Radar Station in southeastern Türkiye. The YRP had also previously opposed Sweden’s NATO bid.

  Erdogan is already moving towards the YRP position on trade with Israel – or at least is trying to make it appear as though he is. We’ll have to see if more is coming.

  Erdogan has been playing this card of the big, bad West for years now, but he’s been in power for more than two decades. His problem is that voters believe him; they also see that not much has been done about it. And they’re increasingly starting to demand action – whether it comes through the democratic system or not.

  The fact that Incirlik Air Force Base and the Kürecik Radar Station have become targets of public outrage is not a great sign for the US.

  Leaders of Arab countries are getting increasingly nervous about their restive populations angry about their countries’ lack of action against Israel. US support for Israel has put a big target on US bases throughout the Arab world, and that is also the case in NATO-ally Türkiye where the ties holding Ankara and Washington together at arm’s length are increasingly fraying.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 05/17/2024 – 02:00

• Whistling Past The National Train Wreck
  Whistling Past The National Train Wreck

  Authored by Donald Jeffries via I Protest,

  There are only so many ways one can say that America is collapsing. That the Fat Lady is nearing the end of her song. That we’re running on fumes. If Yogi Berra were around, he’d say it’s over. We had a good run, as far as civilizations go. We were the light of the world for a long time. Maybe even Reagan’s shining city upon a hill.

  

  Yesterday, Jason Whitlock reported on one Dexter Taylor, a software engineer who was just convicted and sentenced to ten years for constructing his own guns without a license. Shades of January 6. Taylor is Black, by the way, for those of you to whom that matters. I don’t expect to see former crack dealer turned FBI informant “Reverend” Al Sharpton leading a protest about this particular Black man being a victim of injustice. Our record-setting prisons are overflowing with people like Taylor, of all races. People who most decidedly don’t belong behind bars. Having watched enough of those Investigation Discovery shows, and cops gone wild videos, I often wonder just how many actual criminals are in prison. The system devotes so much effort to framing innocent people, that they may no longer be capable of convicting truly guilty ones.

  I could have titled this Substack Whistling Past the American Graveyard. Maybe I should have. But America 2.0 isn’t literally dead yet. On life support? Yes. With an almost certain terminal prognosis? Yes. I used the train wreck analogy because everywhere we look, things are wrecked. A sad vestige of what they were even a decade ago. It’s fitting that we haven’t addressed our Third World infrastructure for over sixty years. What you see is what you get now. America is in critical condition, and it looks it. You can judge this book by its cover. Give me your obese, your tattooed, your weezing, chronically ill with oxygen tanks and walkers. Wretched refuse indeed. Your endless migrants, who don’t speak English and urinate and defecate in public. What’s not to love?

  A society is reflected in its leaders. And what leaders America 2.0 has! Our political “representatives” are so dedicated to not representing us that every piece of legislation they pass is assumed to be yet another figurative drone strike to the population. I’ve been a political junkie for over fifty years, and I couldn’t tell you when the last law was passed that benefited the People in the slightest way. That’s why libertarianism, and now anarchy, has become popular. The best we can hope for with these beloved statesmen (and stateswomen, and soon to be statetransgenders), is that they do nothing. That we pay them their generous salaries, and give them the lucrative benefits very few of us get, to maybe rape an underage page, or be bribed by a special interest group. Just don’t pass any legislation. Pretty please.

  As I wrote recently in depth about, Americans also have to contend with the occupying force of militarized police officers. They are the standing army Thomas Jefferson warned about. They serve no function other than to annoy, harass, and sometimes kill the befuddled citizens who pay them. They are never there when you need them, and are incapable of solving any real crime. They are good at beating people (as long as you are a vulnerable target who represents no danger to them), planting evidence, and lying on their police reports. But people love them. Jolly coppers on parade, as Randy Newman called them long ago. The best you can hope for is to completely avoid any interaction with them. They are upholding the systemic corruption. Doing the bidding of their masters. Guarding the train wreck.

  Our government agencies are all worthless, providing no real services other than to begrudgingly pay us back the money they stole from us (Social Security, Medicare, and Unemployment Compensation), or provide the benefits they promised (military personnel). But, like savage beasts that are always hungry, they must be fed. Paid better than those who pay them, and with much better benefits. While conservatives bemoan “welfare,” which was altered significantly under Bill Clinton, so that fewer people receive less money, they fail to see the federal government itself for what it is: a gigantic, entitled welfare recipient. Think of Reagan’s mythical Welfare Queen. Living it up with house money. Taxpayer money.

  To paraphrase Rodney Dangerfield, private industry is no winner, either. Much of it would welcome back child labor. They hate the minimum wage. If we raise it, your Big Mac will cost $50 and all that. They’ve been chipping away at the best legislation of the twentieth century, the 1938 act that created the forty hour work week, overtime, sick and vacation pay. They don’t like paying their lowly serfs time and a half. Remember, this law only came about because of the pressure Huey Long put on the Left, to pass a thirty hour work week, with a month’s paid vacation for all workers. The 1938 act was a watered down version of his ideas, a compromise that was still far better than what workers had before that. Which was basically nothing. I think that 1938 act may have been the last good law, passed eighteen years before I was born.

  Corporate America used to represent the epitome of conservatism. Now, they are at least as “Woke” as every government agency is. Say that men can’t have babies at your own risk. Object to some mentally unbalanced co-worker complaining that you don’t respect his/her/its ridiculous new “pronouns,” and be immediately “cancelled.” Without passing “Go” or collecting $200. Say “All Lives Matter.” Wear a MAGA hat. You’ll find that your right to “free expression” is severely restricted. I could never make it in any work environment today. Virtually every word I uttered would be a fireable offense under the “new normal.” And sociable guys like me would be in hot water constantly. Just smiling and saying “hello” to the wrong Karen is no longer permitted. Unless you’re Black. Then be as loud and vulgar as you like. Except saying “9/11 was an inside job,” or talking about the Jews in a loud voice, that is.

  Our dystopian downfall might be a bit more tolerable if it had a nice soundtrack. This one doesn’t, because new music has effectively stopped. I don’t consider rap and the American Idol-inspired wailing to be rock or pop music. It’s like the Titanic going down, and the band decides to be fronted by Snoop Dogg and Cardi B. That’s not quite the same as Nearer my God to Thee. And we can’t even watch any good movies or television shows that critique or satirize the madness. That’s because this train wreck can’t even be mentioned, let alone criticized. So we’re forced to watch old movies and television shows instead. It’s a form of therapy, like digitized valium. That’s how I wind down at night. Get lost in that black and white world, with attractive people, simple values, solid acting, writing, and production values.

  And then there’s the populace. Sure, there are millions of people awake now, to varying degrees. But millions more are sound asleep. If you try to act as their alarm clock, they can quickly become violent. Against all reason, they appear to like the present situation. They seem to feel there is hope for the future. They recoil at our re-pilled and black-pilled proclamations like we were holding them up at intellectual gunpoint. As e.e. cummings once chided his fellow poet Ezra Pound, who was obsessed with Jews, the Federal Reserve, and unnecessary wars, and involuntarily committed to a mental health facility for a decade by the government, “You bastard- you’re trying to get them to think!” Most people desperately don’t want to think. It’s an ignorance is bliss thing, you wouldn’t understand.

  A citizenry basically has two ways to try and reform things. To abolish bad laws and “mandates,” get rid of corrupt leaders, and enact better laws that ensure better leaders. One is by the voting process. As should be obvious by this point, that isn’t an option here. ‘Murricans reelect some 96 percent of the worst people on earth to “represent” them every election. Either this is because they are incurably stupid, or because the votes aren’t honestly counted. Either way, we’re screwed. The other way is by legal redress. Judicial Review, which everyone except Thomas Jefferson, and me, seems to think is the constitutional way to do it. Donald Trump’s and Alex Jones’s show trials alone demonstrate that the legal system is hopelessly compromised, by criminally biased judges, unethical prosecutors, and brainless juries.

  The judge in Dexter Taylor’s trial proclaimed that the Second Amendment didn’t exist in her court. These lordly judges seem to think that the courtroom itself is their property, that it belongs to them. Instead of “get off my lawn,” they yell, “you’re in contempt!” So the Constitution she is supposed to be upholding, which includes the Second Amendment, is irrelevant to her. That statement alone would instantly assure her removal from office in an honest society. This obviously isn’t an honest society. And it follows on the heels of all those Trump and Jones’ judges who have decreed that the First Amendment can’t be cited as a defense in their courtroom. All rise! Here comes ‘da judge, as they used to say when you could lampoon such things.

  Some allegedly famous “social media influencer” named Haley Kalil, who has some ten million followers on social media, recently scoffed at the unwashed masses by quoting Marie Antoinette’s iconic “Let them eat cake.” And to think, I can’t even get 5,000 followers on the platform formerly known as Twitter. Now, it’s highly unlikely that young Haley has even heard of Marie Antoinette. She certainly doesn’t have the mental acuity to realize how that sounds. What she is representing. But some other celebrities, as crazed as they are themselves, became incensed enough at the remark to announce that they were going to subject her to the digitine- the digitalized guillotine. I’m impressed that any young celebrity knows the connection between Marie Antoinette and the guillotine. So I guess that’s a positive development.

  If present-day Americans had anything of the mindset of the eighteenth century French, or the American colonists, then they would have long ago started sharpening some real guillotines. I must stress that I am not supporting guillotining anyone. I oppose capital punishment. Period. Whatever the French monarchy was doing to the masses in the late 1700s certainly cannot compare to the tyranny we see in America today, or really everywhere around the world. Taxes on tea and stamps are laughable compared to the unfair and unjust monolithic establishment present-day Americans must contend with. Someone in an American courtroom faces the same cruel and unusual punishment which is forbidden under the Constitution, every day in this country. And we still have that whole “taxation without representation” thing.

  RFK, Jr.’s recent inexplicable disclosure that he had suffered from a brain worm, which caused him to lose some cognitive function, really hammered home how tragically comic things are. We have Joe Biden, so obviously suffering from dementia that he wouldn’t be trusted by the average nursing home to lead a transgender story time hour, and Donald Trump, who if you accept him at face value (which I don’t), has the emotional maturity of a twelve year old. And now Bobby, Jr. With a worm in his head. Not exactly Jefferson vs. Adams. But many- perhaps millions- still believe the “White Hats” are just around the corner. Despite no evidence of any good people in power anywhere, some still trust that they will save us.

  So all aboard the American train wreck. It’s not going anywhere, but you’ll need to give your ticket to the conductor anyway. You’re forced to watch (and finance) inaction in motion. Just don’t point out it’s not moving. There are a lot of fellow passengers that will want to punch you for that. To them, it’s the best ride they’ve ever been on. Maybe they can keep this facade up a bit longer. Look what they’re doing with the stock market. Even evil magicians can work wonders. This is still the greatest country in the world. Love it or leave it. Pull yourself up by the bootstraps. Those who don’t work don’t eat. Choose your pronouns wisely. And stay on this wreck. We’re number one! And we prosecute dissenters.

  Subscribe to “I Protest” by Donald Jeffries

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/16/2024 – 23:30

• Russia Orders UK Defense Attaché Out Of The Country In Tit-For-Tat
  Russia Orders UK Defense Attaché Out Of The Country In Tit-For-Tat

  Russia has hit back at the UK’s latest diplomatic moves against Moscow, on Thursday ordering the expulsion of the British defense attache from the country.

  “The defense attaché at the British Embassy in Moscow, A. T. Coghill, has been declared persona non grata. He must leave the territory of the Russian Federation within a week,” Russia’s foreign ministry said.

  

  It follows the UK first expelling Moscow’s defense attache from British soil earlier this month as he was accused of being “an undeclared military intelligence officer.” Russia blasted it as a lie, and its top diplomat overseeing military affairs was forced to leave.

  The Kremlin is now threatening further diplomatic escalation while complaining about London’s “unfriendly,” “anti-Russian” and politically motivated recent actions.

  The British government has of late quietly launched a pressure campaign on Russian diplomatic facilities and personnel in the UK, with Interior Minister James Cleverly recently briefing parliament that multiple Russian-owned properties will be downgraded from having diplomatic status and protections.

  Cleverly alleged that Russian sites in Sussex as well as in London will see their diplomatic immunity removed. Cleverly told parliament that “we believe have been used for intelligence purposes.”

  As we detailed this week, British intelligence has gone so far as to accuse Putin of plotting ‘physical attacks’ on British soil and NATO sites.

  France has said it’s considering sending ground troops to Ukraine.

  The U.K. greenlit Ukraine’s use of British weapons to strike Russia.

  Is it a mystery why Russia ordered tactical nuclear weapons drills? pic.twitter.com/0eaVZZSZK7

  — System Update (@SystemUpdate_) May 7, 2024

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  There have been a spate of new accusations of specific attacks on UK infrastructure being linked to Russia. For example The Telegraph writes that “Last week, a British man was charged with an arson attack in London and accused by prosecutors of working for Wagner Group, the Russian paramilitary organization.”

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/16/2024 – 23:00

• Coffee Linked To Reduced Parkinson's Risk
  Coffee Linked To Reduced Parkinson’s Risk

  Authored by George Citroner via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Your morning cup of joe may be doing more than just giving you an energy boost to tackle the day. New evidence suggests that the caffeine in your brew could pack an extra punch by reducing your risk of developing Parkinson’s disease.

  

  Findings Suggest Caffeine May Reduce Parkinson’s Risk by 40 Percent

  While previous research highlighted caffeine’s benefits like increased energy and enhanced cognitive performance, a recent study in Neurology adds to the evidence that caffeine may help prevent Parkinson’s disease, a progressive movement disorder.

  The new study examined coffee intake and future Parkinson’s risk in 184,024 participants across six European countries.

  Unlike prior studies, it quantified caffeine biomarkers years before Parkinson’s onset. Researchers identified 351 Parkinson’s cases, matched with controls by age, sex, study center, and fasting status during blood collection.

  Results showed that higher caffeine consumption and the presence of key metabolites like paraxanthine and theophylline were linked to reduced Parkinson’s risk.

  Paraxanthine and theophylline have been shown to have antioxidant effects. Oxidative stress is believed to play a role in the neurodegeneration seen in Parkinson’s, so compounds with antioxidant activity may help protect neurons from damage. Also, Parkinson’s involves the death of dopamine neurons. Some research suggests paraxanthine and theophylline may increase dopamine receptor signaling, which could compensate for neuron loss.

  The neuroprotective effects were exposure-dependent, with the highest consumption group having nearly 40 percent lower Parkinson’s risk compared to non-coffee drinkers.

  The “sweet spot of coffee consumption” is probably two to four cups per day, Dr. Jack Wolfson, a board-certified cardiologist in Scottsdale, Arizona, not associated with the study, told The Epoch Times. Above that amount, “there is probably not much benefit,” he added.

  Link Promising but Not Proven

  The scientific evidence linking coffee consumption to a decreased risk of developing Parkinson’s disease is quite strong, Dr. Hwai Ooi, a neurologist at Weill Cornell Medicine in New York, who was not associated with the study, told The Epoch Times. Numerous studies over the past 20 years have demonstrated a “clear association,” she said.

  However, association does not imply causation. The exact mechanism by which caffeine might offer neuroprotection and reduce the risk of Parkinson’s disease development remains unknown, Dr. Ooi added.

  Also, clinical trials to date investigating whether caffeine or its metabolites can slow the progression of Parkinson’s disease or help improve its symptoms have not shown such benefits, she noted.

  Though the evidence looks promising, Dr. Ooi said more research is needed to fully understand the relationship between coffee consumption and Parkinson’s disease risk. This includes determining the optimal amount and type of coffee to consume for maximum benefits.

  Don’t Overdo the Coffee: Expert

  Dr. Ooi cautioned against consuming excessive coffee to lower Parkinson’s risk. “As with almost everything we put into our bodies, moderation is key,” she said.

  Excess caffeine intake has been linked to increased anxiety, sleep issues, gastrointestinal problems like heartburn, elevated heart rate and blood pressure (especially problematic for those with heart conditions or hypertension), decreased bone density, and potential medication interactions.

  Regular consumption of large amounts of coffee can lead to dependency and withdrawal symptoms like headaches, fatigue, and irritability when reducing intake.

  Dr. Ooi advised consulting a health care professional for any concerns about caffeine intake.

  Other Ways to Reduce Parkinson’s Risk

  In addition to coffee consumption, experts say there are other lifestyle factors and habits that could play a role in reducing the risk of Parkinson’s disease.

  The most important is aerobic exercise, “which has clearly been shown to be neuroprotective effects in Parkinson’s disease and can slow down progression of the disease,” Dr. Ooi said. Current guidelines recommend a minimum of 2.5 hours of aerobic activity per week for those with Parkinson’s.

  Other factors linked to optimal brain health and lower Parkinson’s risk include maintaining a healthy, balanced diet. Dr. Wolfson recommends a diet rich in wild seafood, noting higher consumption is associated with lower risk.

  Getting adequate sleep, managing stress through practices like mindfulness meditation, and staying socially and mentally active are other modifiable lifestyle changes that may be beneficial, he added.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/16/2024 – 22:30

• Netanyahu Could Fire Defense Chief As Public Spat Erupts Over Gaza 'Day After'
  Netanyahu Could Fire Defense Chief As Public Spat Erupts Over Gaza ‘Day After’

  Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is at odds with his own defense minister Yoav Gallant after Gallant said in a Wednesday televised address that the Israeli leader must take “tough decisions” on Gaza’s ‘day after’ the war ends. Gallant came out very strongly against any scenario that leaves Israel in charge of overseeing the Gaza Strip. He called for advancing non-Hamas Palestinian governance, which would of course mean the Palestinian Authority (PA, which is made up primarily of Fatah), along with international backing. 

  Times of Israel highlighted that “The public comments, seen as the most direct political challenge to Netanyahu from within his government since the start of the war, sparked an angry backlash among members of the coalition, who urged Netanyahu to fire the defense minister.”

  What made matters worse is that just a few hours prior to Gallant issuing his direct challenge, Netanyahu asserted publicly that any discussions of the “day after” Hamas in Gaza are meaningless until the terror group is defeated.

  In response to Gallant, Netanyahu issued televised remarks wherein he laid out that he’s “not prepared to switch from Hamastan to Fatahstan” – in reference to the PA which currently governs the West Bank, and represents the older era of Palestinian resistance to Israel.

  I am not prepared to replace “Hamastan” with “Fatahstan.” pic.twitter.com/CH3V71bQGd

  — Benjamin Netanyahu – בנימין נתניהו (@netanyahu) May 16, 2024

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  Gallant’s challenge is also ultra-sensitive due to going tensions between Netanyahu and the Biden White House. Gallant’s plan is widely seen as the one Washington would favor as an outcome. The US has meanwhile condemned any scenario which would see the Israeli government or military permanently administer the Gaza Strip. 

  Some hardliners within the Israeli coalition even want to eventually open up the Strip to direct settlement by Jewish families.

  Below is a more detailed look at Gallant’s ‘day after plan which Netanyahu has rejected, via David Ignatius’ Washington Post column:

  It’s time for Israel to begin building a Palestinian security force in Gaza that can provide stability there after the political power of Hamas is broken, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said in a blunt briefing this week.

  “The idea is simple,” Gallant told me. “We will not allow Hamas to control Gaza. We don’t want Israel to control it, either. What is the solution? Local Palestinian actors backed by international actors.” Gallant’s frank comments mark a turn in the Israeli government’s debate about governance and security issues in Gaza, known by the shorthand phrase “the day after.” His views are widely shared by the defense and security establishment but opposed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing coalition.

  Concerning Washington’s view of this, Ignatius writes further:

  Biden administration officials say Gallant has taken a larger role in U.S.-Israeli dialogue in recent months, as relations have soured between Netanyahu and President Biden. One U.S. official described Gallant as an “indispensable” problem-solver in the increasingly tense debate about how to end the war in Gaza.

  …In January, Gallant released a public plan that stated his central point: “Gaza residents are Palestinian, therefore Palestinian bodies will be in charge, with the condition that there will be no hostile actions or threats against Israel.” He proposed a multinational task force to help stabilize Gaza including U.S., European and Arab partners, with Egypt playing a special role as a “major actor.”

  Netanyahu in his response has tried to frame it as a matter of Gallant making “excuses” for not having eradicated Hamas yet, but without naming him directly.

  

  But central to Gallant’s rationale is that direct Israeli rule over the Strip will perpetuate rebellion among Palestinians, driving them into the arms of Hamas. “As long as Hamas retains control over civilian life in Gaza, it may rebuild and strengthen, thus requiring the IDF to return and fight in areas where it has already operated,” he has said.

  “We must dismantle Hamas’ governing capabilities in Gaza. The key to this goal is military action, and the establishment of a governing alternative in Gaza,” Gallant concluded.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/16/2024 – 22:00

• Million Texans Without Power As Storm Topples Transmission Towers 
  Million Texans Without Power As Storm Topples Transmission Towers 

  Powerful storms tore through eastern Texas on Thursday evening, decimating transmission towers and plunging over a million residents into darkness. 

  “Severe thunderstorms moving across the Houston metro area have a history of producing damaging winds! This destructive storm will contain wind gusts to 80 MPH! A tornado is possible!” the National Weather Service of Houston wrote on X.

  ⚠️⚠️Severe thunderstorms moving across the Houston metro area have a history of producing damaging winds! This destructive storm will contain wind gusts to 80 MPH! A tornado is possible!

  TAKE COVER NOW, away from windows. Head to the lowest floor.

  — NWS Houston (@NWSHouston) May 16, 2024

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  X users shared shocking footage of transmission towers that were toppled by the storm. 

  Pics from emergency management in #HarrisCounty show extensive damage to electrical infrastructure. Power out for nearly 1/3 of county and over 750k+ for all of #Texas and growing. #houston @CNN pic.twitter.com/5taRn2441f

  — Derek Van Dam (@VanDamCNN) May 17, 2024

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  🚨#BREAKING: Nearly a Million are without Power as Powerful Storms Move through with 80-117 mph Winds Toppling large transmission power lines and Shattering skyscrapers Windows

  📌#Houston | #Texas

  Currently nearly 935,000 customers in Houston Texas are without power with the… pic.twitter.com/LiSbmRhiib

  — R A W S A L E R T S (@rawsalerts) May 17, 2024

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  According to poweroutage.us, more than a million Texans are without power, mainly in the eastern part of the state. 

  

  The Texas power grid can’t catch a break.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/16/2024 – 21:39

• Trump Says He Believes A 'Great Silent Majority' Will Vote For Him In November
  Trump Says He Believes A ‘Great Silent Majority’ Will Vote For Him In November

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Former President Donald Trump on Wednesday said he believes he has a “great silent majority” who will vote for him during the 2024 election.

  

  While speaking to radio host Hugh Hewitt, the former president claimed that he may have the “biggest ever” silent majority, using a term that was popularized by former President Richard Nixon in 1969. He then made reference to the relatively large crowd turnout during last weekend’s rally in Wildwood, New Jersey.

  “I have a great silent majority … the term was very, very powerfully associated with Nixon, and I didn’t want to be copying the term actually, so it’s the great silent majority,” President Trump said, adding that he believes that 107,000 people attended the Wildwood rally. The Epoch Times could not immediately authenticate that figure.

  The former president in 2020 made similar claims about a silent majority turning out in droves for him during that year’s election. But the term was famously used by President Nixon to refer to conservative voters who did not participate in the current political discourse at the time, later resurfacing in the campaigns of former President Ronald Reagan in the 1980s.

  In his interview with Mr. Hewitt, the former president said that he believes inflation may cause some voters to cast ballots in favor of him, coming after the Labor Department released figures Wednesday showing that the consumer price index slightly eased in April.

  “It’s a lot of inflation when added to the inflation that we’ve suffered that’s been so bad,” President Trump said, likely referring to years of rising prices since the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic. “It’s got to come down much more. That’s a lot of inflation, their number they announced.”

  The former president’s remarks on Wednesday come as a recent poll from Siena College shows that President Joe Biden is trialing the former president in five of six battleground states.

  President Trump, notably, is ahead by 6 percentage points in Arizona, 11 points in Georgia, and 13 points in Nevada, the survey revealed. He’s ahead about 3 points in Pennsylvania and 1 point in Wisconsin, while is down by 1 point to President Biden in Michigan. In the 2020 election, races were called for President Biden in all of those states mentioned in the Siena College survey.

  In a Wall Street Journal poll conducted in April, President Trump garnered a lead of between 2 and 8 percentage points among voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina on a ballot that included third-party and independent candidates. The results were similar in a one-on-one matchup with President Biden, it said.

  The former president also was viewed as having better physical and mental fitness for the job by 48 percent of respondents, compared to 28 percent for President Biden, the poll showed.

  Meanwhile, a recent Reuters-Ipsos poll showed that more Americans believe President Trump would handle the economy better than President Biden. Some 41 percent of respondents in the three-day poll said the former president has the better approach, compared to 34 percent for the current president.

  Debate Announcement

  On Wednesday, President Biden said in an announcement that he would agree to two debates with President Trump ahead of the 2024 election, holding one in June and another in September.

  “I’ve also received and accepted an invitation to a debate hosted by ABC on Tuesday, September 10th,“ the president said on X. ”Trump says he’ll arrange his own transportation. I’ll bring my plane, too. I plan on keeping it for another four years.”

  The former president wrote that he accepted his invitation.

  “It is my great honor to accept the CNN Debate against Crooked Joe Biden,” President Trump said on Truth Social. “Likewise, I accept the ABC News Debate against Crooked Joe on September 10th,” he added.

  In a separate post, he also pushed for a debate to be held on Fox News, which he said could take place on Oct. 2, or about a month from the election.

  Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a third-party candidate, suggested on social media after the announcement that he might be excluded from the debate “because they are afraid I would win.”

  President Trump, who did not debate his rivals during the Republican nominating race before they all dropped out, has in recent weeks been challenging President Biden to a one-on-one matchup with him, arguing that debates should be held before early voting begins in some states. He also told Mr. Hewitt the debate should be two hours long and that both men should be required to stand.

  Wednesdays are a day off for President Trump during his ongoing New York trial, where he is accused of falsifying business records to cover up payments to a woman to keep silent about an alleged affair. He has denied her claims and pleaded not guilty, saying it’s an attempt to harm his 2024 presidential campaign.

  The trial is expected to last about two more weeks.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/16/2024 – 21:30

• These Are The 10 Countries Most In Debt To The IMF
  These Are The 10 Countries Most In Debt To The IMF

  Established in 1944, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) supports countries’ economic growth by providing financial aid and guidance on policies to enhance stability, productivity, and job opportunities.

  Countries seek loans from the IMF to address economic crises, stabilize their currencies, implement structural reforms, and alleviate balance of payments difficulties.

  In this graphic, Visual Capitalist’s Bruno Venditti visualizes the 10 countries most indebted to the fund.

  

  Methodology

  We compiled this ranking using the International Monetary Fund’s data on Total IMF Credit Outstanding. We selected the latest debt data for each country, accurate as of April 29, 2024.

  Argentina Tops the Rank

  Argentina’s debt to the IMF is equivalent to 5.3% of the country’s GDP. In total, the country owns more than $32 billion.

  

  A G20 member and major grain exporter, the country’s history of debt trouble dates back to the late 1890s when it defaulted after contracting debts to modernize the capital, Buenos Aires. It has already been bailed out over 20 times in the last six decades by the IMF.

  Five of the 10 most indebted countries are in Africa, while three are in South America.

  The only European country on our list, Ukraine has relied on international support amidst the conflict with Russia. It is estimated that Russia’s full-scale invasion of the country caused the loss of a third of the country’s economy. The country owes $9 billion to the IMF.

  In total, almost 100 countries owe money to the IMF, and the grand total of all of these debts is $111 billion. The above countries (top 10) account for about 69% of these debts.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/16/2024 – 21:00

• Container Ship Lacked Backup System To Avoid Baltimore Bridge Strike
  Container Ship Lacked Backup System To Avoid Baltimore Bridge Strike

  By John Gallagher of FreightWaves

  Cargo vessels are not equipped with backup power sufficient to avoid situations such as the one in March when the container ship Dali struck and collapsed Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key Bridge, the country’s top transportation safety investigator told lawmakers.

  

  Testifying before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee on Wednesday, National Transportation Safety Board Chair Jennfier Homendy said the backup generator that kicked in after the Dali lost power roughly half a mile from the bridge restored emergency lighting, navigation functions, radio equipment, alarms and a steering pump that allowed for low-speed, limited rudder movements.

  That wasn’t enough.

  “It does not power propulsion, and without the propeller turning, the rudder was less effective — they were essentially drifting,” she told the committee.

  “If you wanted to regain propulsion through any sort of emergency generator, it would literally take a six-storey generator on a vessel to do that. There is that redundancy in, say, cruise ships, but the Dali is not unlike other [cargo] vessels.”

  Homendy’s testimony came a day after NTSB released a preliminary report on the March 26 accident that killed six bridge construction workers.

  The report shows that the Dali experienced four total power outages — including two that occurred the day before the accident during routine maintenance being performed by the vessel’s crew while the ship was docked at the Port of Baltimore.

  While recovering from the second power outage, the crews switched to a different transformer and set of circuit breakers from those that had been in use for several months. “Switching breakers is not unusual but may have affected operations the very next day on the accident voyage,” Homendy said at the hearing.

  “We will continue evaluating the design and operation of the Dali’s power distribution system, including its breakers. Examination of damage to the vessel will continue when the ship is cleared of debris and moved to a shoreside facility.”

  Timelines and costs

  The U.S. Coast Guard and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers have been able to reopen much of the channel since the accident, officials from those agencies testified at the hearing, adding that they expect the vessel to be refloated and removed from the channel as early as next week.

  Shailen Bhatt, administrator of the Federal Highway Administration, confirmed to lawmakers a preliminary estimate to replace the bridge at $1.7 billion to $1.9 billion. It will take four years to construct, with completion estimated to come sometime in 2028, he said.

  Bhatt was questioned by several lawmakers on the administration’s request to have 100% of the bridge’s replacement cost paid upfront through federal funds, which will require legislation approved by Congress.

  He pointed out that getting the money approved upfront by Congress “removes an element of uncertainty” to insure against construction delays. In addition, a significant amount of that funding will be paid back to the government eventually through insurance payment recovery and money received through litigation proceedings from responsible parties, he said.

  “But we don’t want to wait for all the litigation and NTSB investigations and insurance issues” to be resolved, he said.

  Rerouting delays increase

  During the hearing, Congresswoman Eleanor Holmes Norton, Washington’s nonvoting delegate in the House, sought comment from Bhatt on federal data showing that traffic crashes rose 29% on alternative routes in the weeks following the Key Bridge collapse.

  “The same data show that it now takes between two and four times longer for drivers to travel those alternative routes,” she said. “That traffic means trucks are delayed in reaching their destinations, commuters are late getting to their jobs or home to their families, and there is more air pollution and wasted fuel.”

  Bhatt noted that when significant highway capacity is lost, traffic adjusts and levels out. However, “that’s not happening in Baltimore to the same extent, and I think it’s because of just the criticality of this artery,” he said.

  “It’s important for Maryland and Baltimore, but it’s also important for the Northeast Corridor. So yes there are trucks and vehicles moving through neighborhoods that normally they would not, and that’s why it’s important that we move with as much speed as possible” to rebuild the bridge.

  Bhatt told lawmakers he would look into potential long-term relief, including hours-of-service waivers, for truck drivers affected by the delays.

  Bridge assessments recommended

  As part of its investigation, NTSB is looking at other areas in the U.S. where bridges have been improved following vessel strikes. Depending on the information collected, the agency could issue an urgent safety recommendation even before a final report is issued in the Dali accident, which could take up to 18 months.

  “The key is, you have here a bridge that was opened in 1977. It’s not the bridge that’s getting larger, it’s not the waterway that’s getting larger, it’s the vessels that are getting larger — both width and height. So it’s important that states and other bridge owners look at, from a risk assessment standpoint, what type of vessel traffic is going through, and how is the bridge protected.”

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/16/2024 – 20:35

• Boeing 747 Engine Erupts In Fireball During Takeoff 
  Boeing 747 Engine Erupts In Fireball During Takeoff 

  Another week, another mid-air mishap for a Boeing plane. This time, a 747-400 carrying 468 passengers from Indonesia to Saudi Arabia had to make an emergency landing immediately after takeoff when one of the plane’s four engines erupted in a fireball.

  “The decision was made by the pilot in command immediately after takeoff, considering engine problems that required further examination after sparks of fire were observed in one of the engines,” Garuda Indonesia president director Irfan Setiaputra wrote in a statement obtained by the local media outlet The Jakarta Post. 

  Garuda-1105 flight to Madinah, a city in western Saudi Arabia, was departing from the Indonesian city of Makassar on Wednesday when, as soon as the plane achieved rotation speed and lifted off the runway, a giant fireball erupted from one of the plane’s engines. 

  Garuda Indonesia 747-412 returns safely to Makassar Airport in Indonesia after an engine failure during takeoff. pic.twitter.com/VibKqCQosc

  — Breaking Aviation News & Videos (@aviationbrk) May 15, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Here’s what happened last week with Boeing mishaps:

  May 8:

  • Boeing 767 Cargo Plane Crash-Landed In Turkey

  May 9:

  • Boeing 737 Crashes After Failed Takeoff At African Airport

  May 10: 

  • United Airlines Boeing 737 Makes Emergency Return To Japanese Airport After Wing Flap “Irregularity”

  If you want to avoid flying in Boeing’s “death traps,” use this plane ticket booking search feature for Airbus “only” before your next trip.   

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/16/2024 – 20:10

• Electric Vehicle Subsidies As Complex And Costly As Ever
  Electric Vehicle Subsidies As Complex And Costly As Ever

  Authored by David Williams via RealClearEnergy,

  Electric vehicles (EVs) may be the most subsidized product in America. Federal taxpayers shell out $7,500 every time a new eligible electric vehicle is purchased (usually by wealthy buyers). State and local taxpayers chip in an additional $1,500 for each EV purchase. Then, there’s the tens of billions of dollars “invested” by policymakers into building EV plants. Even these bank-breaking concessions aren’t enough to please the Biden administration. Recently finalized EV tax credit rules expand eligibility for the subsidy while maintaining bizarre trade sourcing rules likely to lead to further tariffs from China. It’s time for President Biden and lawmakers to ditch protectionism and finally end EV subsidies. 

  

  From the start, President Biden’s fumbling approach to EV subsidies has harmed the economy without bolstering ecology. In 2022, the chief executive declared, “[t]hanks to American ingenuity, American engineers, American autoworkers… if you want an electric vehicle with a long range, you can buy one made in America.” Prices were already through the roof, with taxpayers being asked to shoulder these pricy purchases. Kelley Blue Book estimates that the average price of a new EV is more than $65,000, compared to $48,000 for gas-powered cars. Biden imposed requirements that EVs must undergo “final assembly in North America,” contributing to even higher prices for taxpayers and consumers. 

  Biden’s rules make production cost-prohibitive by restricting the foreign mineral inputs (e.g., graphite) that could go into tax credit-eligible EVs. The administration has since reversed course and allowed for a grace period for graphite sourcing. However, the new rules, “introduce a stricter test for measuring whether 50% of the vehicle’s critical minerals come from the United States or a free trade agreement partner…[requiring] automakers to more precisely account for the value added at each step of the supply chain.” The net effect of all these confusing new rules is to expand the number of vehicles eligible for EV tax credits, while increasing compliance costs. And, of course, this cost will be passed onto taxpayers and consumers. 

  Instead of tethering absurd rules to a complex and costly program, the Biden administration should start from scratch and axe the tax credit. EV subsidies are showered onto the wealthiest Americans at the expense of their poorer neighbors. According to a 2023 analysis of California EV purchase patterns by the news outlet CalMatters, “Most of the median household incomes in the top 10 [zip codes with the highest share of EVs] exceed $200,000, much higher than the statewide $84,097. Typical home values in those communities exceed $3 million, according to Zillow estimates.” In comparison, “electric cars are nearly non-existent in California’s lowest income communities: only 1.4% of cars in Stockton’s 95202, where the median household income is $16,976, and 0.5% in Fresno’s 93701, where the median is $25,905. Most are plug-in hybrids, which are less expensive.” This study’s findings are consistent with earlier, multi-state surveys. A 2018 study by Dr. Wayne Winegarden of the Pacific Research Institute found, “79% of electric vehicle plug-in tax credits were claimed by households with adjusted gross incomes of greater than $100,000 per year. Households with incomes greater than $50,000 per year claimed 99% of the credits.” 

  This stunning regressivity ensures that subsidies are a net-negative for ecology. Wealthy Americans primarily purchaseEVs as secondary cars, keeping them in the garage for occasional outings. EV owners are largely still using conventional cars, and there’s less-than-hoped-for substitution between gasoline and electricity. As a result, extra pollution is generated via increased EV production without corresponding decreases in driving emissions. One 2022 Harvard study suggests, “foregoing gasoline in favor of volts may actually increase, not lower, overall emissions in some cases.” This is far from the outcome envisioned by “green” activists and policymakers. 

  The Biden administration and lawmakers ought to seriously rethink adding more fuel to the dumpster fire of EV subsidies. Struggling Americans shouldn’t be forced to foot the bill for these over-hyped toys for tycoons.

  David Williams is the president of the Taxpayers Protection Alliance. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/16/2024 – 19:45

• Cocoa Bull Pierre Andurand Warns Of 'Price Explosion' If Stock-To-Grinding Ratio Collapses
  Cocoa Bull Pierre Andurand Warns Of ‘Price Explosion’ If Stock-To-Grinding Ratio Collapses

  Commodity trader Pierre Andurand appeared on Bloomberg’s Odd Lots to discuss his bullish bet on cocoa markets and the future direction of physical markets amid severe droughts plaguing vast farmlands in West Africa. He’s still bullish on cocoa prices, with an upside price target of $20,000 a ton later this year or next because continued droughts will spark a “massive supply shortage this year.” 

  Andurand’s discussion with Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal comes after cocoa prices had two of the largest single daily declines ever in recent weeks as liquidity evaporated from the market. 

  • Cocoa Crash Unfolds As “Liquidity Evaporates”
  • Cocoa Market Hit With Second Crash In Weeks As Liquidity Evaporates

  And Rabobank analyst Paul Joules told clients the bull rally has likely peaked. 

  • After Cocoa Crash, Rabobank Says Bull Rally Likely Peaked

  However, Andurand, founder of Andurand Capital Management LLP, known for his oil and energy trades, told the Odd Lots hosts that his bullish cocoa bets from March paid off when prices skyrocketed north of $12,000. He believes there is potential for further upside as extreme global deficits of the bean loom. 

  

  “Basically, we have a massive supply shortage this year. I mean, we see production down 17% relative to last year. Most analysts out there have it down 11%, but that’s because they tend to be very conservative. You know, they have lots of clients and they don’t want to to worry the world, so they come with relatively conservative estimates,” he explained, adding, “We’re in a situation where we might actually run out of inventories completely.”

  Andurand continued, “This year we think we will end up with a with an inventory-to-grinding ratio — so inventory at the end of the season — of 21%.” 

  “For the last 10 years, we’ve been between 35% and 40%. Roughly at the previous peak in 1977, we were at 19%,” he said.

  The International Cocoa Organization tracks inventories of unprocessed cocoa, which can serve as a cushion when there’s a shortfall in supply. However, the lower the inventory-to-grinding ratio drops, the less of a buffer there is. When the stock-to-grinding ratio crashed in 1977, cocoa prices soared to $5,500, or on an inflation-adjusted basis today, $28,000. 

  Andurand warned the ratio could collapse to as low as 13%, adding, “That’s when you really have a real shortage of cocoa beans. You can’t get it. And that’s when the price can really explode.”

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/16/2024 – 19:20

• America's Nuclear Zeitenwende
  America’s Nuclear Zeitenwende

  Authored by Charles Bell via RealClear Wire,

  Overshadowed by Hamas’s attack on Israel, the release of the congressionally mandated Strategic Posture Commission (SPC) report heralded the arrival of an American nuclear Zeitenwende – a sea change setting us on a new course. By issuing consensus recommendations for significant changes to the size and composition of the deployed nuclear forces of the United States, the bi-partisan members of the SPC signaled that we have crossed the Rubicon from the post-Cold war nuclear order to the terra incognita of two peer nuclear adversaries’ intent on brandishing their growing nuclear weapons capabilities to overthrow the rules-based international order.  The SPC commissioners warn that this “new global environment is fundamentally different than anything experienced in the past,” constituting “an existential challenge for which the United States is ill prepared, unless its leaders make decisions now to adjust the U.S. strategic posture.”

  

  It would be difficult to exaggerate the extent to which the SPC’s consensus conclusions have reoriented the nuclear debate, shifting the focus away from how to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in U.S. strategy and towards a focus on how to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in the strategies of our adversaries (by building a nuclear posture that will credibly deter them). In doing so on a bi-partisan basis and by articulating comprehensive recommendations to address “this unprecedented two peer threat,” the SPC commissioners can legitimately lay claim to having produced the most important national security document of the post-Cold war era.

  Nevertheless, the SPC’s recommendations have not received the widespread, public attention that they urgently require. This inattention needs to be quickly remedied, lest we fail to garner the essential public support necessary to ensure the United States creates a strategic posture capable of preventing great power military conflict.

  One of the many strengths of the SPC report is to remind us of a salient reality that we too often lost sight of during the long period of great power geopolitical quiescence following the end of the Cold war: the rules-based internal order is, at its core, predicated on the strength of the U.S. strategic posture – and especially the credibility of the U.S. extended nuclear deterrent. Thus, a failure to ensure that the U.S. nuclear deterrent remains credible is likely to cause the unraveling of our alliances, a nuclear “proliferation cascade,” and the demise of the international order that has kept the peace for over three quarters of a century.

  The SPC emphatically states that allowing this to happen “is not an option.” Instead, the commissioners argue that “[m]odifications to both strategic nuclear forces and theater nuclear forces are urgently necessary,” particularly considering the “increased role of nuclear weapons in the strategies and tactics of our adversaries.”

  Accordingly, the SPC recommends increasing the numbers of deployed strategic nuclear weapons in the land, air, and sea legs of the U.S. strategic triad by the placing more nuclear warheads on ICBMs and SLBMs and producing more nuclear-armed, air-launched cruise missiles.  Also recommended is rendering U.S. strategic forces more survivable by deploying mobile ICBMs, placing a portion of the bomber fleet on alert, and increasing the number of ballistic missile submarines.

  The SPC commissioners place particular emphasis on the need to enhance U.S. theater nuclear capabilities, an imperative rendered even more urgent because “China is adopting an expanded theater nuclear war-fighting role” and in light of “Russia’s increasing reliance on nuclear weapons…” In response, the SPC recommends that “U.S. theater nuclear forces should be urgently modified in order to: Provide the President a range of military effective nuclear response options to deter or counter Chinese of Russian limited use in theater.” These changes in the U.S. theater nuclear posture are deemed essential if the U.S. is to maintain the flexible response options required to credibly extend nuclear deterrence to our allies.

  Given the significance that the SPC attaches to maintaining the credibility of the U.S. extended nuclear deterrent, it is important to emphasize the degree to which the problem of ensuring the credibility of the U.S. extended nuclear deterrent was a vexing conundrum for U.S. strategists throughout the Cold War, particularly as the Soviet Union became a true peer nuclear power with an assured second-strike capability that negated U.S. nuclear superiority.

  In the very near future, the U.S. will confront the even more difficult problem of having to extend nuclear deterrence to our allies in the face of not one, but two, peer nuclear powers. In this future, enhanced theater nuclear forces, along with more robust strategic nuclear forces, will be critical to the U.S.’s ability to deter opportunistic – or planned simultaneous – aggression in two theaters and “to compensate for any conventional shortfall in U.S. and allied non-nuclear capabilities.”  Enhanced U.S. nuclear capabilities are critical to reassuring our allies, who “perceive that the risk of Russian and Chinese aggression and potential nuclear employment has increased; and thus, U.S. nuclear and conventional capabilities are increasingly important for credible extended deterrence.”

  The SPC’s emphasis on the importance of both nuclear and conventional forces points to yet another strength of the SPC, which is to embed the imperative of strengthening the U.S. nuclear posture within the broader imperative of strengthening all aspects of the U.S. strategic posture from cyber to space to missile defense – and integrating these elements of deterrence into a whole of government approach.  At the same time, the SPC emphasizes that the “U.S. nuclear posture composes the foundation of U.S. military strength, and therefore the foundation of the U.S. strategic posture.”  No matter how capable U.S. conventional forces may be, if the U.S. does not deploy nuclear forces capable of credibly deterring adversary use of nuclear weapons, we run the risk of adversaries believing that they can gain advantage by using nuclear weapons in a conventional conflict that they are losing.

  The overriding challenge before the United States is how to implement the SPC’s recommendations. This will require bringing to the attention of the broader body politic that, in the words of the SPC, the “new global environment is fundamentally different than anything experienced in the past, even in the darkest days of the Cold War.” It is an environment in which 35 years of U.S. nuclear restraint has gone unreciprocated; in which “China is pursuing a nuclear force build-up on a scale and pace unseen since the U.S.-Soviet nuclear arms race” (but this time without the U.S. racing); in which Russia continues to build on its advantage in theater nuclear forces while issuing explicit nuclear threats; and in which our allies fear that U.S. extended nuclear guarantees to their security are eroding. 

  Given this “dramatic change in the overall strategic setting,” we must recall that deterrence does not supply its own efficacy; it must be tailored “to decisively influence the unique decision calculus of each nuclear-armed adversary.”  Building a strategic posture capable of deterring war will not be cheap; but it would be “far more expensive to fight such a war.”  Or as former Secretary of Defense Mattis pithily remarked: “America can afford survival.”

  If there is a dominant theme that pervades the SPC, it is a palpable sense of alarm: “The challenges are unmistakable; the problems are urgent; the steps are needed now.” We ignore the SPC’s cri de coeur at our peril.

  Charles Ball served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Threat Reduction and Arms Control from 2018-2021 and is a retired Reserve Naval Intelligence Officer. The views expressed are solely his own.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/16/2024 – 18:55

• IDF Tanks Open Fire On Own Gaza HQ, Killing 5 Troops In Disastrous Friendly Fire Incident
  IDF Tanks Open Fire On Own Gaza HQ, Killing 5 Troops In Disastrous Friendly Fire Incident

  The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have just suffered their biggest ‘friendly fire’ disaster to date during military operations in northern Gaza. In a Wednesday incident, a pair of Israeli tanks targeted a building which was serving as a forward operating HQ for their own troops.

  Five Israeli soldiers were confirmed killed in the incident which happened in Jabalia. An additional seven troops were wounded, with three listed in serious condition. 

  

  Soon after it happened social media images from Israel showed that there was a significant medical evacuation underway, with military helicopters seen transporting wounded to hospitals inside Israel. 

  The tanks had reportedly been taking heavy fire just before the friendly fire incident, with the Jerusalem Post providing the following details:

  Tank Unit 82’s soldiers said that they saw a potential threat, the barrel of a weapon, emerge from the three floor battalion headquarters, which was only 10-20 meters away from them. The soldiers hit by the tank were from Unit 202 is a Haredi-integrated unit. 

  It was unclear why they did not recognize the battalion headquarters. However, the IDF said that the tanks had taken over the junction in Jabalya around 9:00 am and that the Battalion headquarters deputy commander had only arrived many hours later.

  On Thursday the IDF listed the young troop deaths – which included an officer with the rest being among enlisted ranks – as follows: Capt. Roy Beit Ya’akov, 22, from Eli; Staff Sgt. Gilad Arye Boim, 22, from Karnei Shomron in Samaria; Sgt. Daniel Chemu, 20, from Tiberias; Sgt. Ilan Cohen, 20, from Carmiel; and Staff Sgt. Betzalel David Shashuah, 21, from Tel Aviv.

  While it’s still under investigation, another local media outlet reported the following:

  The tank forces had arrived at the area in the morning, and several hours later, the paratroopers reached the area and established a post in the building. Later in the evening, another group of paratroopers reached the area and notified two of the tanks there that they were entering the building.

  Likely this will further energize angry anti-Netanyahu protesters who say he has not done enough to actually get the Israeli hostages back, but instead has prioritized the brutal fight to eliminate Hamas.

  Earlier in the Gaza operation, the IDF admitted that many of its troops were being killed by friendly fire in the tight urban setting. It was a shocking admission at the time:

  Of the 105 Israeli soldiers killed to date in the Gaza Strip during Israel’s ground offensive against Hamas, which began in late October, 20 were killed by so-called friendly fire and other accidents, according to new data released by the IDF on Tuesday.

  Thirteen of the soldiers were killed by friendly fire due to mistaken identification in airstrikes, tank shelling, and gunfire.

  One soldier was killed by gunfire that was unintended to hit them, and another two were killed by accidental misfires.

  Two soldiers were killed in incidents involving armored vehicles running over troops. And two soldiers were killed by shrapnel, including from explosives set off by Israeli forces.

  In another somewhat recent tragic incident three hostages were able to get free from their Hamas captors in Gaza and emerged from a building waiving white flags, but they were shot by Israeli troops who reportedly mistook them for enemy militants.

  In a tragic friendly fire incident on Wednesday, two IDF tanks mistakenly fired on a forward battalion headquarters in Jabalya, northern Gaza, killing five soldiers and injuring seven. Learn more: https://t.co/BLbYkrbY5o pic.twitter.com/mswtXkwbek

  — The Jerusalem Post (@Jerusalem_Post) May 16, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The latest IDF data indicates: “Of the 278 Israeli soldiers killed in the Gaza Strip during Israel’s ground offensive against Hamas, which began in late October, at least 49 were killed by friendly fire and in other accidents.”

  Some regional observers believe that casualties among the IDF are much higher than being reported. As for Israel, it says it has killed over 14,000 Hamas militants since Oct.7.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/16/2024 – 18:30

• Discharged US Marine Threatened To Target White People In Mass Shooting, Feds Say
  Discharged US Marine Threatened To Target White People In Mass Shooting, Feds Say

  Authored by Ryan Morgan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Federal prosecutors have charged a recently discharged U.S. Marine with making threats to attack white people in a mass shooting.

  

  On Monday, the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of New Jersey announced the arrest of Joshua Cobb, 23, on a single-count indictment of transmitting an interstate threat over the internet. According to a complaint filed in the case, Mr. Cobb authored a social media post on Dec. 17, 2022, indicating his interest in inflicting mayhem “on the white community.”

  The author of the Dec. 17, 2022, social media post states, “I want to cause mayhem on the white community. The reason i specifically want to target white people is because as a black male, they will NEVER understand my struggles.”

  The post’s author goes on to state he has already begun planning the attack, which he intended to carry out somewhere in New Jersey at some point in 2023, though he had not chosen an exact time.

  “I have not chosen a exact date but I am going to be sure it is close to an important holiday to their race. I have a location in mind already which I have frequented for the past year and I am certain nobody there is armed to be able to stop me from spraying them to the ground,” the suspect’s social media post continues. “I have already acquired 2 of the 4 firearms I plan to use for my attack, and I also know my entry and exit points already after the mayhem.”

  The social media post was published under the handle “NearbyUserl0l.” Investigators determined that social media activity was associated with an internet protocol (IP) address matching the Trenton, New Jersey residence in which Mr. Cobb resided at the time.

  Suspect Planned to ‘Continue Training’ For Attack

  Federal prosecutors allege Mr. Cobb made subsequent posts on a second social media platform in the Spring of 2023, expressing homicidal ideations. A May 2023 social media post states, “Imagine the rush you’d feel while shooting some [expletive] up. Probably could get literally high off the adrenaline alone. I’d probably OD on my own adrenaline after the 10th body goes down.” Another May 2023 post states, “I hope I do progress into a serial killer because I [expletive] hate life man… But one day everyone will suffer. I promise I will make everyone feel my [expletive] pain. My deep, sincere, raw, & sharp pain.” Prosecutors say Mr. Cobb’s posts also indicated a plan to “continue training and buying more ammunition” until the day he could carry out his attack.

  Mr. Cobb joined the U.S. Marine Corps and entered basic training in June 2023. The Marine trainee completed his basic training in September and was given a period of post-basic leave. He arrived at another duty station, the Marine Corps Air-Ground Combat Center Twentynine Palms (Twentynine Palms), in California in February of this year.

  Investigators eventually caught up with Mr. Cobb last month while he was still stationed at Twentynine Palms. They seized and searched his phone, finding additional notes he allegedly made in May 2023 expressing further homicidal ideations.

  Suspect Discussed Attack Ideas in FBI Interview

  The federal complaint indicates that FBI agents interviewed Mr. Cobb at the Marine Corps in April after they had seized his phone. The complaint states that during his interview, Mr. Cobb described to FBI agents his ideas for carrying out mass shootings, including one idea he had to shoot up a gym called New Jersey Strong, believing he could carry out the attack at the gym’s peak hours and then easily escape. Mr. Cobb described a second idea of attacking a grocery store because those are “almost always crowded.”

  Mr. Cobb allegedly told FBI agents he specifically thought of targeting an Aldi’s grocery store in Robbinsville, New Jersey, “cause it was like one of them grocery stores like where you just see all these [expletive] rich-[expletive] white people.”

  Mr. Cobb allegedly told FBI agents a third idea he had was to simply “go into like a rich white area and just like start shooting.”

  During the April interview, Mr. Cobb allegedly suggested an affinity for the suspects in the 2018 Parkland High School shooting in Florida and the 2022 shooting at a supermarket in Buffalo, New York. In the latter of those two shootings, federal prosecutors have alleged the shooter posted a manifesto expressing a desire to specifically target a black community. Despite their differing racial motives, Mr. Cobb said he “liked the element of surprise and style” of the 2022 Buffalo supermarket attack.

  Mr. Cobb was discharged from the Marine Corps sometime after his April interview with the FBI.

  NTD News reached out to a pair of public defenders assigned to Mr. Cobb’s case for comment, but they did not respond by press time.

  Mr. Cobb faces a maximum penalty of five years in prison and a $250,000 fine if convicted.

  From NTD News

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/16/2024 – 18:05

• Goldman Finds 'Big City Flight' Intact Boosting Housing Prices In Suburbia  
  Goldman Finds ‘Big City Flight’ Intact Boosting Housing Prices In Suburbia  

  A team of Goldman analysts led by Jan Hatzius found that domestic migration trends from big cities continued through mid-2023. This trend, initially sparked by virus fears and remote working, was further fueled by rising violent crime in urban areas. People sought peace and quiet, moving to suburbia and rural areas for more land and larger homes.    

  “The recent surge in immigration into the US is now well known. But newly released county-level population estimates from the Census reveal another major migration trend: domestic emigration from large cities,” Hatzius told clients on Wednesday.

  Goldamn’s chief economist said – that most cities – with populations over a million – “experienced population growth nearly 1% below the pre-pandemic trend over 2019-2023 cumulatively, while all but the most rural counties experienced above-trend population growth.” 

  Here’s more color on the findings: 

  First, the most urban Tier 1 counties, which include cities such as Kansas City, New Orleans, and Cleveland, experienced population growth nearly 1pp below the pre-pandemic trend over 2019-2023 cumulatively, while counties in Tiers 2-7, which include cities such as Ann Arbor in Tier 2, Santa Fe in Tier 3, and Juneau in Tier 5, experienced population growth 0.4pp above the pre-pandemic trends on average over that period (Exhibit 1).

  The rise of remote and hybrid work arrangements made it easier for workers to relocate away from offices that might have tied them to city centers prior to the pandemic. We noted previously that the share of US workers working from home at least part of the week peaked at 47% at the height of the pandemic and has now stabilized at around 20-25%, well above the pre-pandemic average of 2-3%.

  

  Hatzius’ team also revealed that government county-level population data showed domestic migrants were leaving big cities in droves (about 750k in 2021, 650k in 2022, and 550k in 2023). More than half of them moved to areas between 250k to 1 million. This outflow comes as the Biden administration facilitated the greatest illegal alien invasion this nation has ever seen, piling migrants into crime-ridden progressive cities.

  

  Given the strong positive population trends outside large cities, Hatzius’ team determined housing markets were hotter in suburbia: 

  “Stronger population growth outside the Tier 1 counties has meant somewhat faster house price appreciation relative to pre-pandemic trends compared to the Tier 1 counties.”

  

  The bad news is that housing prices in suburbia are unlikely to return to pre-Covid levels. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/16/2024 – 17:40

• Judge Rejects Democrat Lawsuit Challenging Wisconsin Absentee Voting Requirements
  Judge Rejects Democrat Lawsuit Challenging Wisconsin Absentee Voting Requirements

  Authored by Zachary Steiber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  

  A federal judge has dismissed a lawsuit claiming that Wisconsin’s requirement for witnesses to sign for absentee voters clashes with federal law.

  The claims by plaintiffs, four voters represented by Democrat firm Elias Law Group, are based on faulty interpretations of the law, according to U.S. District Judge James Peterson.

  The challengers said the Voting Rights Act unilaterally bars requiring absentee voters to prove their qualifications, making the Wisconsin requirement illegal. The act states in part that “no citizen shall be denied, because of his failure to comply with any test or device, the right to vote in any federal, state, or local election conducted in any state or political subdivision of a state.” It defines “test or device,” in part, as any requirement that makes a person “prove his qualifications by the voucher of registered voters or members of any other class.”

  However, that interpretation of the federal law is not correct, Judge Peterson said in his May 9 ruling.

  “Plaintiffs say that Wisconsin law requires the witness to do more than ensure that the voter followed the proper procedure in preparing the ballot; rather, the witness must also certify that the voter is eligible to vote,” he said. “But that interpretation is inconsistent with the text and purpose of the statute, and it is inconsistent with how the law has been interpreted since it was enacted. Even the plaintiffs themselves do not say in their declarations that they believe they need to find a witness who can certify their qualifications to vote.”

  In Wisconsin, any qualified voter who is “unable or unwilling” to vote in person is eligible for an absentee ballot. The law states that among requirements to vote by mail, another adult must observe the voter filling out the ballot and signing a statement that reads, in part, that “the above statements are true and the voting procedure was executed as there stated.”

  As the “above statements” include the attestation from the voter that he or she is a resident of Wisconsin and entitled to vote in the state, plaintiffs said the requirement is illegal under federal law.

  However, government officials argued that the witnesses only confirm the second part of the statements, which states that the voter certifies that he or she showed the enclosed ballot to the witness and that he or she marked the ballot and placed it in the envelope without assistance.

  “If defendants are correct, there would be no violation of the Voting Rights Act. As other courts have held, a witness does not vouch for a voter’s qualifications by simply confirming with a signature what he or she observed,” said Judge Peterson, an appointee of former President Barack Obama.

  He said that the phrase “the above statements” is ambiguous but that the plaintiffs’ interpretation “simply does not make any sense.”

  If they were correct, “every witness would have to determine the voter’s age, residence, citizenship, criminal history, whether the voter is unable or unwilling to vote in person, whether the voter has voted at another location or is planning to do so, whether the voter is capable of understanding the objective of the voting process, whether the voter is under a guardianship, and, if so, whether a court has determined that the voter is competent,” according to Judge Peterson.

  “If plaintiffs’ interpretation were correct, it would mean that countless absentee ballots over decades were invalid because the witness certified that the voter was qualified to vote and met the other requirements in the first voter certification, even though the witness had no basis for such a certification,” he said.

  The challengers never provided evidence of any witnesses being penalized for not confirming a voter’s qualifications, and the Wisconsin Elections Commission’s guidance does not mention witnesses taking any steps to confirm voters are eligible to vote, the ruling noted.

  The lawsuit also stated that the witness requirement violates the Civil Rights Act, which bars people from “[denying] the right of any individual to vote in any election because of an error or omission on any record or paper relating to any application, registration, or other act requisite to voting, if such error or omission is not material in determining whether such individual is qualified under state law to vote in such election.”

  The Wisconsin Elections Commission, the defendant, declined to comment.

  The law group did not return an inquiry.

  The organization Restoring Integrity and Trust in Elections, which lodged an amicus brief in support of the government in the case, welcomed the ruling.

  “It’s essential that people voting by mail follow the law in doing so, and Wisconsin has implemented a witness signature requirement that helps ensure they do just that,” Derek Lyons, president of the group, said in a statement. “This case marks another example of liberal activists’ transparent and shameful efforts to co-opt important civil rights legislation for their partisan agendas.”

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/16/2024 – 17:15

• Cohen Destroyed: Trump Lawyer "Dog Walks" Star Witness Through Lie After Lie, CNN Pundits Aghast
  Cohen Destroyed: Trump Lawyer “Dog Walks” Star Witness Through Lie After Lie, CNN Pundits Aghast

  President Donald Trump’s former attorney Michael Cohen had his “knees chopped out” by Donald Trump’s defense attorneys in cross-examination during Trump’s ‘hush money’ trial.

  

  Cohen was grilled by Trump attorney Todd Blanche about a pivotal phone call that connected Trump to allegations that he approved reimbursements to pay porn star Stormy Daniels during the 2016 election. In one exchange, Blanche accused Cohen of lying about speaking with Trump on the phone in October 2016 to reassure his boss that he was handling the payment to Daniels.

  Blanche then confronted Cohen with text messages that contradicted the lie – revealing that Cohen in fact spoke with Trump’s bodyguard, Keith Schiller.

  Trump attorney Todd Blanche grilled him about a pivotal phone call that had connected President Trump to the allegations at the center of the case. He accused Mr. Cohen of calling the former president’s bodyguard, Keith Schiller, to complain about harassing phone calls—not to disclose an update on a plan to purchase the silence of Ms. Clifford.

  Mr. Cohen said that the prank calls were a part of the conversation with Mr. Schiller.

  “Now your memory is that you were testifying truthfully on Tuesday, and you had enough time to update Mr. Schiller about all the problems you were having with these harassing calls?” Mr. Blanche asked him.

  “I always run everything by the boss immediately,” Mr. Cohen said. “It could’ve just been me saying, ‘everything’s been taken care of, it’s been resolved.’”

  “That was a lie. You did not talk to President Trump that night,” Mr. Blanche said. “You can admit it.” “No sir, I can’t,” Mr. Cohen said. “Because I’m not sure that’s accurate.”

  “This jury doesn’t want to hear what you think happened,” Mr. Blanche said. –Epoch Times

  Cohen appeared blindsided by the line of questioning, and wavered in his recollection of the phone call before blurting out “I believe I was telling the truth!”

  Blanche then slapped Cohen around for telling Congress that he didn’t want to work in the Trump administration – only to be confronted with conversations in 2016 in which he expressed disappointment that he was overlooked for the role of Trump’s chief of staff.

  Cohen also lied about seeking a pardon from Trump, for which his attorneys later had to issue a statement to correct the record.

  After Cohen had his ass handed to him, CNN pundits were beside themselves.

  “It was incredible…lawyers want to build a box around the witness & slam it shut–that’s what Todd Blanche did to Cohen…it was an extraordinary cross…Cohen was cornered in…a lie,” said host Anderson Cooper.

  Anderson Cooper was left stunned by Trump’s attorney’s cross examination of Michael Cohen

  “It was incredible…lawyers want to build a box around the witness & slam it shut–that’s what Todd Blanche did to Cohen…it was an extraordinary cross…Cohen was cornered in…a lie” pic.twitter.com/WKnKCs8TkU

  — johnny maga (@_johnnymaga) May 16, 2024

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  The network’s top legal analyst said “I don’t think I’ve ever seen a star witness get his knees chopped out quite as clearly and dramatically as what just happened with Michael Cohen.”

  CNN legal analyst: “I don’t think I’ve never seen a star cooperating witness get his knees chopped out quite as clearly and dramatically as what just happened with Michael Cohen.” pic.twitter.com/NcghETrUIJ

  — MAGA War Room (@MAGAIncWarRoom) May 16, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Rep. Matt Gaetz says Cohen was “dog walked through the series of lies he has told.”

  The alleged “crime” by President Trump is made up!

  No other American in the country would be charged with this type of crime.

  I watched Michael Cohen get dog walked through the series of lies he has told. There is literally no branch of government that he has not lied to. pic.twitter.com/Fi1GpbCF13

  — Rep. Matt Gaetz (@RepMattGaetz) May 16, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Fin…

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/16/2024 – 16:50

• Goldbugs Waited Years For A Massive Comex Short Squeeze, And Finally Got It… Just In The Wrong Metal
  Goldbugs Waited Years For A Massive Comex Short Squeeze, And Finally Got It… Just In The Wrong Metal

  For much of the past decade, gold bugs religiously tracked the physical gold inventory located in the various gold vaults that make up the Comex system, eagerly awaiting the day when there would be more deliverables (via paper shorting of gold) than physical in storage, sparking a historic, Volkswagen-like short squeeze. Well, the day of a historic Comex short squeeze finally arrived… only it wasn’t in gold but in the far less precious metal that is copper.

  It all started one month ago, when we reported that in an attempt to enforce sanctions against Russia that actually worked (as opposed to the joke that is the western “oil embargo” now openly breached by absolutely everyone), the “US, UK Banned Deliveries Of Russian Copper, Nickel And Aluminum To Western Metals Exchanges.” There, in our conclusion, we wrote that “history has taught us that the market will price in some “full-sanction” risk premium which when combined with the current macro bid (reflation narrative, electrification, “copper is the first AI commodity” etc.) means we expect a complex wide rally.” Little did we know how truly historic said rally would be just one month later.

  As anyone who has been following the recent moves in the price of copper – which is hitting daily record highs – knows by now, a massive dislocation between the prices for copper traded in New York and other commodity exchanges has rocked the global market for the metal and prompted a frantic dash for supplies to ship to the US.

  

  The source of the disruption, as Bloomberg reports, is a record short squeeze that has driven up copper prices on the Comex exchange to the point  where the premium for New York copper futures above the London Metal Exchange price has rocketed to an unprecedented level of over $1,200 per ton, compared with a typical differential of just a few dollars.

  

  The blowout in that price spread has wrong-footed major players from Chinese traders to quant hedge funds, all of whom are now scrambling for metal that they can deliver against expiring futures contracts!

  Adding fuel to the fire, the surge in the price is not just driven by technicals but also reflects the surge of interest from speculators after forecasts that long-term copper mine production will struggle to keep pace with demand. We have discussed the fundamental case for copper in “The Copper Supply Shortage Is Here“, and most notably in “the Next AI Trade” where we said that copper is starting to show signs of what Goldman has called “AI exposure” considering it is an essential material to produce power, and added that Goldman recently has gone full-bore pushing for copper (see the following note from Goldman S&T “Turning Copper into Gold” available to professional subs).

  While less important than the LME, Comex, which is part of the CME Group, is a key playground for investors, some of whom have used the exchange to build up large bullish bets on copper in recent months

  “The broader story is that there are new investment funds that are boosting their exposure to copper for a multitude of reasons, and while that’s a global trend, a huge amount of that investment has been heading to Comex,” said Matthew Heap, a portfolio manager at Orion Resource Partners, the largest metals-focused fund manager.

  As shown in the charts above, while copper prices had been rising for months, this week’s spike was specific to the Comex and the most-active futures contract for July delivery. By Wednesday, the July price had soared as much as 10%, touching a record high for that contract, even as the global benchmark contract on the LME traded broadly flat. The move, Bloomberg reports citing numerous traders and brokers, was a classic short squeeze as market participants who had placed bets on the Comex contract moving back into line with prices on the LME and in Shanghai, the other global copper benchmark, were forced to buy those positions back as prices rose, creating a vicious cycle and sending the price to a record.

  Indeed, as Colin Hamilton, managing director for commodities research at BMO Capital Markets, said the spread of more than $1,000 a ton between Comex and London was “something never seen previously,” adding that “there has been a squeeze on short positions into contract expiry, exacerbating the move.”

  In yet another example of hedge funds and other traders being too smart for their own good (i.e. a replay of the original GameStop short squeeze), they had taken the other side of the bullish trades on Comex, betting on narrowing differentials between the contracts in New York, London and Shanghai, or between New York contracts for different delivery dates, often with massive leverage. With prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange relatively depressed, some Chinese physical market participants had also sold on the LME and Comex, with plans to export.

  Putting this all together, and on Wednesday morning, the July Comex copper contract soared to a record $5.128 a pound ($11,305 a ton), also trading at a record premium above the September Comex contract — a monster backwardation that is hallmark of a short squeeze.

  

  While the spike was driven by short covering rather than any overall physical shortage, traders and brokers say, but it has shined a light on relatively tight supplies in the US copper market, just as we warned a month ago in “The Copper Supply Shortage Is Here. Case in point, inventories tracked by the Comex currently total 21,066 short tons, while LME inventories in the US are just 9,250 tons. For comparison, annual US copper demand is almost 2 million tons. Traders say solid demand, and shipping issues at the Panama and Suez canals, have left the market tight. Indeed, US copper imports year-to-date are down 15%, according to consultancy CRU Group.

  “We continuously monitor our markets, which are operating as designed as market participants manage copper risk and uncertainty,” the CME said in a statement.

  Of course, as our readers know too well, short squeezes are nothing new in commodity markets, and they often prompt a mad scramble to find supplies of raw materials that underpin paper contracts. The most recent and vivid example is the Nickel short squeeze of March 2022, when the Russian invasion of Ukraine led to a huge shortage in the market, and a staggering surge in the price which nearly bankrupted one of China’s biggest commodity traders and the LME itself.

  

  A similar squeeze took place in 2020, when Covid locked down much of the world, and gold traders raced to ship metal to address a similar dislocation between New York and London bullion prices. And in 1988, a short squeeze in aluminum led some traders to load the metal into jumbo jets — a highly unusual and costly mode of transport for industrial raw materials — in order to get it on to the LME as soon as possible.

  The current Comex copper squeeze has triggered a similar dash to send copper to the US: Chinese traders have spent the past 24 hours calling around shipping companies to try to secure transit to the US, according to people familiar with the matter.

  Traders and miners in South America have also raced to boost their US shipments. According to Bloomberg, Chilean copper-mining giant Codelco is directing all of its available volumes to the market and also negotiating with customers to postpone some sales so that it can maximize deliveries.

  That said, there are tentative signs that the squeeze is easing: the July copper contract edged lower on Thursday morning after coming off its highs from Wednesday, while the premium over cash copper on the LME narrowed to $573 a ton — although still a historically elevated level.

  There may be further relief ahead, as investors with bullish positions via commodity indexes are set to start rolling their   copper positions in early June, providing an opportunity for traders with short positions to defer delivery, potentially easing the backwardation. Still, it remains unclear if that will be enough to resolve the squeeze ahead of the expiry of the July contract, which goes into delivery at the start of that month. And any attempts to provide further metal to the US to ease the squeeze may face challenges: Chinese traders seeking to transport metal to the US have found that shipping schedules are fully booked, with the earliest available shipping slots from Shanghai to New Orleans at the beginning of July, said Gong Ming, analyst with Jinrui Futures Co.

  Adding to the plight of those caught out by the squeeze is the fact that much of the copper inventories outside the US is from brands that aren’t deliverable against Comex futures. For example, more than 80% of the 94,700 tons of copper on the LME at the end of April was produced in Russia, China, Bulgaria or India — countries whose copper isn’t deliverable on Comex as we reported a month ago, in a development that has eventually cascaded into today’s historic squeeze.

  

  And while substantial inventories have built up in China in recent months, traders estimate that only about 15,000 to 20,000 tons of that could be delivered against Comex futures.

  “We do not think the physical arbitrage activity will be sufficient by the July expiry to close the arb on the near month. There is not enough material and not enough time,” said Anant Jatia, chief investment officer at Greenland Investment Management, a hedge fund specializing in commodity arbitrage trading.

  “However, physical traders are currently heavily incentivized to move copper into the US and over time the arb market will stabilize.”

  As for gold bugs, watching with sheer shock – and outright jealousy – the epic squeeze roiling the less precious metal, all they can hope for is that one day the massive paper shorts on the comex will lead to a similar meltup in gold. All that may be needed is a pair of enterprising Hunt Brothers for the new millennium to pull it off.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/16/2024 – 16:45