• Koala Or Elephant – How Many Hours A Day Do You Sleep?
  Koala Or Elephant – How Many Hours A Day Do You Sleep?

  Every animal has to rest in some way, but some animals need a lot more sleep than others.

  This graphic by Giulia De Amicis uses data from startsleeping.com to show the typical sleeping patterns of 40 different animals, highlighting their average sleep times, and what percentage of each 24-hour day they spend resting.

  

  Compared to the rest of the animals featured in the graphic, humans need a relatively small amount of sleep.

  We sleep for an average of eight hours – or 33% of our day.

  

  In contrast, Koalas sleep up to 22 hours a day, or 87.5% of the day. This is mostly because of the Koala’s diet – Koalas eat Eucalyptus leaves, which are toxic and take a lot of energy to digest.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/12/2022 – 02:45

• EU Ministers Call For 10% Cut In Energy Consumption
  EU Ministers Call For 10% Cut In Energy Consumption

  By Julieanne Geiger of OilPrice.com

  A meeting of EU energy ministers on Friday has suggested that each EU country implement strategies to reduce overall electricity consumption by a minimum of 10 percent, the Wall Street Journal has reported. 

  

  The EU should also reduce electricity by at least 5% during peak price hours, according to a draft document seen by the WSJ. 

  The EU asked its members earlier this summer to reduce gas consumption by 15% starting this fall and running through the winter.

  While initially a request, it left the door open for it to become mandatory should the need arise.

  The 15% gas cut framework could also be applied to Friday’s plan to cut electricity usage by 10%, the ministers said on Friday.  

  According to the WSJ, the electricity rationing plan appears to have support from many member states. 

  The emergency EU energy minister meeting was held on Friday to discuss skyrocketing consumer energy bills and a price cap on Russian natural gas. The meeting concluded without a concrete plan, with the group stating that more work needed to be done. Proposals for potentially capping the price of Russian gas—a controversial measure that critics claim will be ineffective—are due mid-September. 

  Russia, for its part, has vowed to withhold gas exports to countries engaged in price capping, threatening to let Europe freeze if it runs contrary to Russia’s interests. Nevertheless, the EU seems determined to show its resolve on the matter to find a solution to restricting Russia’s oil and gas revenues. 

  Friday’s emergency meeting is just the latest of many efforts the EU has made to quash economic upheaval due to industry shutdowns, and to prevent protests due to skyrocketing energy prices. 

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/12/2022 – 02:00

• Pilger: Silencing The Lambs – How Propaganda Works
  Pilger: Silencing The Lambs – How Propaganda Works

  Authored by John Pilger via ConsortiumNews.com,

  In the 1970s, I met one of Hitler’s leading propagandists, Leni Riefenstahl, whose epic films glorified the Nazis. We happened to be staying at the same lodge in Kenya, where she was on a photography assignment, having escaped the fate of other friends of the Fuhrer.

  She told me that the “patriotic messages” of her films were dependent not on “orders from above” but on what she called the “submissive void” of the German public.

  Did that include the liberal, educated bourgeoisie? I asked.  “Yes, especially them,” she said. 

  I think of this as I look around at the propaganda now consuming Western societies. 

  Of course, we are very different from Germany in the 1930s. We live in information societies. We are globalists. We have never been more aware, more in touch, better connected. 

  

  Leni Riefenstahl, center, filming with two assistants, 1936. (Bundesarchiv, CC-BY-SA 3.0, Wikimedia Commons)

  Or do we in the West live in a Media Society where brainwashing is insidious and relentless, and perception is filtered according to the needs and lies of state and corporate power? 

  The United States dominates the Western world’s media. All but one of the top 10 media companies are based in North America. The internet and social media – Google, Twitter, Facebook – are mostly American owned and controlled.

  In my lifetime, the United States has overthrown or attempted to overthrow more than 50 governments, mostly democracies. It has interfered in democratic elections in 30 countries. It has dropped bombs on the people of 30 countries, most of them poor and defenceless. It has attempted to murder the leaders of 50 countries.  It has fought to suppress liberation movements in 20 countries. 

  The extent and scale of this carnage is largely unreported, unrecognised, and those responsible continue to dominate Anglo-American political life.

  Harold Pinter Broke the Silence

  In the years before he died in 2008, the playwright Harold Pinter made two extraordinary speeches, which broke a silence.

  “U.S. foreign policy,” he said, is

  “best defined as follows: kiss my arse or I’ll kick your head in. It is as simple and as crude as that. What is interesting about it is that it’s so incredibly successful. It possesses the structures of disinformation, use of rhetoric, distortion of language, which are very persuasive, but are actually a pack of lies. It is very successful propaganda. They have the money, they have the technology, they have all the means to get away with it, and they do.”

  In accepting the Nobel Prize for Literature, Pinter said this: 

  “The crimes of the United States have been systematic, constant, vicious, remorseless, but very few people have actually talked about them. You have to hand it to America. It has exercised a quite clinical manipulation of power worldwide while masquerading as a force for universal good. It’s a brilliant, even witty, highly successful act of hypnosis.”

  Pinter was a friend of mine and possibly the last great political sage – that is, before dissenting politics were gentrified. I asked him if the “hypnosis” he referred to was the “submissive void” described by Leni Riefenstahl. 

  “It’s the same,” he replied. “It means the brainwashing is so thorough we are programmed to swallow a pack of lies. If we don’t recognise propaganda, we may accept it as normal and believe it. That’s the submissive void.”

  

  Leni Riefenstahl and a camera crew stand in front of Hitler’s car during 1934 rally in Nuremberg. (Bundesarchiv, CC-BY-SA 3.0, Wikimedia Commons)

  In our systems of corporate democracy, war is an economic necessity, the perfect marriage of public subsidy and private profit: socialism for the rich, capitalism for the poor. The day after 9/11 the stock prices of the war industry soared. More bloodshed was coming, which is great for business.

  Today, the most profitable wars have their own brand. They are called “forever wars” — Afghanistan, Palestine, Iraq, Libya, Yemen and now Ukraine. All are based on a pack of lies.

  Iraq is the most infamous, with its weapons of mass destruction that didn’t exist. NATO’s destruction of Libya in 2011 was justified by a massacre in Benghazi that didn’t happen. Afghanistan was a convenient revenge war for 9/11, which had nothing to do with the people of Afghanistan. 

  Today, the news from Afghanistan is how evil the Taliban are —not that U.S. President Joe Biden’s theft of $7 billion of the country’s bank reserves is causing widespread suffering. Recently, National Public Radio in Washington devoted two hours to Afghanistan — and 30 seconds to its starving people.

  At its summit in Madrid in June, NATO, which is controlled by the United States, adopted a strategy document that militarises the European continent, and escalates the prospect of war with Russia and China. It proposes “multi domain warfighting against nuclear-armed peer-competitor.” In other words, nuclear war.

  

  NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, left, and Spain’s Prime Minster Pedro Sánchez on June 28 in Madrid. (NATO)

  It says: “NATO’s enlargement has been an historic success.” 

  I read that in disbelief. 

  The news from the war in Ukraine is mostly not news, but a one-sided litany of jingoism, distortion, omission.  I have reported a number of wars and have never known such blanket propaganda. 

  In February, Russia invaded Ukraine as a response to almost eight years of killing and criminal destruction in the Russian-speaking region of Donbass on their border. 

  In 2014, the United States had sponsored a coup in Kiev that got rid of Ukraine’s democratically elected, Russian-friendly president and installed a successor whom the Americans made clear was their man. 

  

  Dec. 7, 2015: U.S. Vice President Joe Biden meets with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in Kiev. (U.S. Embassy Kyiv, Flickr)

  In recent years, American “defender” missiles have been installed in eastern Europe, Poland, Slovenia, the Czech Republic, almost certainly aimed at Russia, accompanied by false assurances all the way back to James Baker’s “promise” to Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in February 1990 that NATO would never expand beyond Germany. 

  NATO on Hitler’s Borderline

  Ukraine is the frontline. NATO has effectively reached the very borderland through which Hitler’s army stormed in 1941, leaving more than 23 million dead in the Soviet Union. 

  Last December, Russia proposed a far-reaching security plan for Europe. This was dismissed, derided or suppressed in the Western media. Who read its step-by-step proposals? On Feb. 24, President Volodymyr Zelensky threatened to develop nuclear weapons unless America armed and protected Ukraine.  

  On the same day, Russia invaded — an unprovoked act of congenital infamy, according to the Western media. The history, the lies, the peace proposals, the solemn agreements on Donbass at Minsk counted for nothing.

  On April 25, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin flew into Kiev and confirmed that America’s aim was to destroy the Russian Federation — the word he used was “weaken.” America had got the war it wanted, waged by an American bankrolled and armed proxy and expendable pawn.

  Almost none of this was explained to Western audiences.

  Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is wanton and inexcusable. It is a crime to invade a sovereign country. There are no “buts” — except one.

  When did the present war in Ukraine begin and who started it? According to the United Nations, between 2014 and this year, some 14,000 people have been killed in the Kiev regime’s civil war on the Donbass. Many of the attacks were carried out by neo-Nazis. 

  Watch an ITV news report from May 2014, by the veteran reporter James Mates, who is shelled, along with civilians in the city of Mariupol, by Ukraine’s Azov (neo-Nazi) battalion.

  In the same month, dozens of Russian-speaking people were burned alive or suffocated in a trade union building in Odessa besieged by fascist thugs, the followers of the Nazi collaborator and anti-Semitic fanatic Stepan Bandera.  The New York Times called the thugs “nationalists.”

  “The historic mission of our nation in this critical moment,” said Andreiy Biletsky, founder of the Azov Battaltion, “is to lead the White Races of the world in a final crusade for their survival, a crusade against the Semite-led Untermenschen.”

  Since February, a campaign of self-appointed “news monitors” (mostly funded by the Americans and British with links to governments) have sought to maintain the absurdity that Ukraine’s neo-Nazis don’t exist. 

  Airbrushing, once associated with Stalin’s purges, has become a tool of mainstream journalism.

  In less than a decade, a “good” China has been airbrushed and a “bad” China has replaced it: from the world’s workshop to a budding new Satan.  

  Much of this propaganda originates in the U.S., and is transmitted through proxies and “think-tanks,” such as the notorious Australian Strategic Policy Institute, the voice of the arms industry, and by journalists such as Peter Hartcher of The Sydney Morning Herald, who has labeled those spreading Chinese influence as “rats, flies, mosquitoes and sparrows” and suggested these “pests” be “eradicated.” 

  

  Andriy Beletsky, commanding officer of the special Ukrainian neo-Nazi police regiment Azov, with volunteers in 2014. (My News24, CC BY 3.0, Wikimedia Commons)

  News about China in the West is almost entirely about the threat from Beijing. Airbrushed are the 400 American military bases that surround most of China, an armed necklace that reaches from Australia to the Pacific and south east Asia, Japan and Korea. The Japanese island of Okinawa and the Korean island of Jeju are like loaded guns aimed point blank at the industrial heart of China. A Pentagon official described this as a “noose.”

  Palestine has been misreported for as long as I can remember. To the BBC, there is the “conflict” of “two narratives.” The longest, most brutal, lawless military occupation in modern times is unmentionable. 

  The stricken people of Yemen barely exist. They are media unpeople.  While the Saudis rain down their American cluster bombs with British advisers working alongside the Saudi targeting officers, more than half a million children face starvation.

  This brainwashing by omission is not new. The slaughter of the First World War was suppressed by reporters who were given knighthoods for their compliance.  In 1917, the editor of The Manchester Guardian, C.P. Scott, confided to Prime Minister Lloyd George: “If people really knew [the truth], the war would be stopped tomorrow, but they don’t know and can’t know.”

  The refusal to see people and events as those in other countries see them is a media virus in the West, as debilitating as Covid.  It is as if we see the world through a one-way mirror, in which “we” are moral and benign and “they” are not. It is a profoundly imperial view.

  The history that is a living presence in China and Russia is rarely explained and rarely understood. Vladimir Putin is Adolf Hitler. Xi Jinping is Fu Man Chu. Epic achievements, such as the eradication of abject poverty in China, are barely known. How perverse and squalid this is.

  When will we allow ourselves to understand? Training journalists factory style is not the answer. Neither is the wondrous digital tool, which is a means, not an end, like the one-finger typewriter and the linotype machine.

  In recent years, some of the best journalists have been eased out of the mainstream. “Defenestrated” is the word used. The spaces once open to mavericks, to journalists who went against the grain, truth-tellers, have closed.  

  

  Julian Assange in 2014. (David G Silvers, Wikimedia Commons)

  The case of Julian Assange is the most shocking.  When Julian and WikiLeaks could win readers and prizes for The Guardian, The New York Times and other self-important “papers of record,” he was celebrated. 

  When the dark state objected and demanded the destruction of hard drives and the assassination of Julian’s character, he was made a public enemy. Vice President Joe Biden compared him to a “hi-tech terrorist.” Hillary Clinton asked, “Can’t we just drone this guy?” 

  The ensuing campaign of abuse and vilification against Julian Assange — the U.N. rapporteur on torture called it “mobbing” — brought the liberal press to its lowest ebb. We know who they are. I think of them as collaborators: as Vichy journalists. 

  When will real journalists stand up? An inspirational samizdat  already exists on the internet: Consortium News, founded by the great reporter Robert Parry, Max Blumenthal’s  The Grayzone, Mint Press News, Media Lens, DeclassifiedUK, Alborada, Electronic Intifada, WSWS, ZNet, ICH, CounterPunch, Independent Australia, the work of Chris Hedges, Patrick Lawrence, Jonathan Cook, Diana Johnstone, Caitlin Johnstone and others who will forgive me for not mentioning them here. 

  And when will writers stand up, as they did against the rise of fascism in the 1930s? When will film-makers stand up, as they did against the Cold War in the 1940s? When will satirists stand up, as they did a generation ago? 

  Having soaked for 82 years in a deep bath of righteousness that is the official version of the last world war, isn’t it time those who are meant to keep the record straight declared their independence and decoded the propaganda? The urgency is greater than ever.

  *  *  *

  John Pilger has twice won Britain’s highest award for journalism and has been International Reporter of the Year, News Reporter of the Year and Descriptive Writer of the Year. He has made 61 documentary films and has won an Emmy, a BAFTA and the Royal Television Society prize. His ‘Cambodia Year Zero’ is named as one of the ten most important films of the 20th century. He can be contacted at www.johnpilger.com

  The views expressed are solely those of the author and may or may not reflect those of ZeroHedge or Consortium News.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 09/11/2022 – 23:30

• Comparing All The Upcoming Electric Semi-Truck Models
  Comparing All The Upcoming Electric Semi-Truck Models

  Electric semi trucks are coming, and they could help to decarbonize the shipping and logistics industry. However, range remains a major limitation.

  This presents challenges for long-hauling, where the average diesel-powered semi can travel up to 2,000 miles before refueling. Compare this to the longest range electric model, the Tesla Semi, which promises up to 500 miles. A key word here is “promises”—the Semi is still in development, and nothing has been proven yet.

  In this infographic, Visual Capitalist’s Marcus Lu and Zack Aboulazm have listed all of the upcoming electric semi trucks, complete with range and charge time estimates. Further in the article, we’ll explore the potential commercial use cases of this first generation of trucks.

  

  Model Overview

  The following table includes all of the models included in the above infographic.

  

  With the exception of Tesla’s Semi, all of these trucks are currently in operation or expected to begin delivering this year. You may want to take this with a grain of salt, as the electric vehicle industry has become notorious for delays.

   

  In terms of range, Tesla and Nikola are promising the highest figures (300+ miles), while the rest of the competition is targeting between 150 to 275 miles. It’s reasonable to assume that the Tesla and Nikola semis will be the most expensive.

  Charge times are difficult to compare because of the variables involved. This includes the amount of charge and the type of charger used. Nikola, for example, claims it will take 2 hours to charge its Tre BEV from 10% to 80% when using a 240kW charger.

  Charger technology is also improving quickly. Tesla is believed to be rolling out a 1 MW (1,000 kW) charger that could add 400 miles of range in just 30 minutes.

  Use Cases of Electric Semi Trucks

  Given their relatively lower ranges, electric semis are unlikely to be used for long hauls.

  Instead, they’re expected to be deployed on regional and urban routes, where the total distance traveled between destinations is much lower. There are many reasons why electric semis are suited for these routes, as listed below:

  • Smaller batteries can be installed, which keeps the cost of the truck lower

  • Urban routes provide greater opportunities to use regenerative braking

  • Quieter and cleaner operation in densely populated areas

  An example of a regional route would be delivering containers from the Port of Los Angeles to the Los Angeles Transportation Center Intermodal Facility (LATC). The LATC is where containers are loaded onto trains, and is located roughly 28 miles away.

  With a round trip totaling nearly 60 miles, an electric semi with a range of 200 miles could feasibly complete this route three times before needing a charge. The truck could be charged overnight, as well as during off hours in the middle of the day.

  Hydrogen for Long Hauls?

  We’ve covered the differences between battery and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in the past, but this was from a passenger car perspective. The conclusion, in that case, was that battery electric has become the dominant technology. In terms of long-haul trucking, however, hydrogen may have an edge.

  If we look at what will become mainstream, probably for smaller mobility it will be EVs, and fuel cells for larger mobility. That is the conclusion so far.

  -TOSHIHIRO MIBE, CEO, HONDA

  There are several reasons for why hydrogen could be beneficial for delivering heavy cargo over long distances. These are listed below:

  • Refueling a hydrogen fuel cell takes less time than recharging a battery. Note, however, that charge times are still improving.

  • A fuel cell configuration is typically lighter than an equivalent battery pack. Less drivetrain weight translates to a higher cargo capacity.

  • Hydrogen-powered trucks could achieve a much higher range.

  This last point hasn’t been proven yet, but we can reference Nikola, which is developing hydrogen-powered semi trucks. The company has two models in the works, which are the Tre FCEV with a range of 500 miles, and the Two FCEV with a range of 900 miles.

  Keep in mind that these numbers are once again estimates and that Nikola has been accused of fraud in the past.

  Who’s Using Electric Semi Trucks Today?

  Although there are very few models available, electric semi trucks are indeed being used today.

  In January 2020, Anheuser-Busch announced that it had received its 100th 8TT. The 8TT is produced by China’s BYD Motors and was one of the first electric semis to see real-world application. The brewing company uses its 8TTs to deliver products to retail destinations across California (e.g. grocery stores).

  Another U.S. company using electric semis is Walmart. The retailer is trialing both the eCascadia from Freightliner and the Tre BEV from Nikola. The trucks are being used to pick up cargo from suppliers and then deliver it to regional consolidation centers.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 09/11/2022 – 23:00

• Could Russia's Sudden Ukraine Retreat Mean A Tactical Nuclear Weapons Strike Is Coming?
  Could Russia’s Sudden Ukraine Retreat Mean A Tactical Nuclear Weapons Strike Is Coming?

  Authored by Michael Rubin via 19fortyfive.com,

  How the Situation in Ukraine Could Get Far More Dangerous

  After days of a withering Ukrainian counteroffensive, the Russian defense ministry announced that it was withdrawing its forces from two areas in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region. In a video statement, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky quipped, “The Russian army in these days is demonstrating the best that it can do — showing its back.” Ukrainians celebrated, and rightly so. While Russian spokesmen said that Russian forces were “repositioning” ahead of a new offensive, reporters on the ground cast doubt on such pronouncements both because they mirror Russian statements as it abandoned its drive toward Kyiv and also because Russian forces left in such great haste that they left numerous arms and equipment behind.

  Western officials are understandably happy. “This [Ukrainian progress] shows the bravery, skills, and determination of Ukrainian forces, and it shows that our support is making a difference every day on the battlefield,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said at a September 9 press conference. Reflecting on his recent trip to Ukraine, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken observed at the same press conference, “Even as President Putin threw as much as he could against Ukraine earlier this summer, Ukraine absorbed the blow and now is pushing back.”

  While it is right to celebrate the Russian rout, the war may be entering a far more dangerous phase.

  

  Consider: If Russian President Vladimir Putin tired of attrition and decided to use tactical nuclear weapons, how would Russian behavior—a rapid withdrawal and even leaving key equipment behind—be different? The answer: It would not be.

  The Biden administration allowed fear of Russian nuclear weapons to self-deter and to limit deliveries of the weaponry that Ukrainian forces needed in the first weeks of the war. Fortunately, against the backdrop of Ukrainian perseverance, they recognized how unbecoming a policy governed by fear and weakness could be. That does not mean, however, that the United States and NATO should not have a contingency plan both to head off Russian use of nuclear weapons and respond to their use should Putin now cross the line.

  The White House and U.S. intelligence community may feel confident that they will have forewarning should Putin give the order to deploy tactical nuclear weapons. They may believe that satellite photographs, signals intelligence, and human intelligence will provide a clear picture.  The nature of intelligence, however, is that there is always doubt and deception. Just as late Al Qaeda leader Usama Bin Laden used old-fashioned messengers rather than email or cell phones, so too might some core Russian commanders. During its 2006 war with Israel, Hezbollah successfully demonstrated the ability to conceal long-range missiles, thanks both to diversions designed to be discovered as well as other underground facilities, all built by North Korean engineers. This is not to suggest a North Korean angle to Ukraine, but certainly, Russian strategists look at lessons learned from every conflict.

  Nor is it necessarily true that Putin would try to hide in advance tactical nuclear warhead use. In 2012, President Barack Obama drew a “redline” around the use of chemical and biological weapons in Syria. When Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s forces subsequently used chemical weapons against a Damascus suburb, Obama stood down. Partisans subsequently questioned the existence of a redline. This was disingenuous as senior Obama officials had supplemented press reporting at the time with background press calls to think tankers and opinion leaders to enunciate how serious Obama was about his redline. When that wordplay did not work, many opposed to enforcing the redline shifted tack and argued that from the perspective of the bombs’ victims, it mattered little whether their death came from gas or explosive maiming. After all, the result was the same. Lost was any appreciation for what the end to the stigma associated with chemical weapons might mean for future warfare.

  Putin might count on proponents fearful of any robust reaction to resurrect the post-chemical redline arguments in the aftermath of a tactical nuclear strike. He might calculate that Washington and Brussels will always look for a reason not to act or escalate and that both will be willing to engage in logical somersaults to do so. Simply put, Putin might calculate that Washington will paralyze itself until the danger of retaliation passes.

  It is for this reason that the White House and NATO should make clear upfront that this will not work. They should detail the pain Russia will suffer should withdrawal be a feint ahead of tactical nuclear use against Ukrainian forces and cities. Such pain should not only include truly crippling sanctions rather than cosmetic half-measures but also include enhancing the ability of Ukraine to expand the zone of hostility to the entirety of Russia, from the Baltic Sea to the Pacific Ocean. They should also detail the eventual financial and territorial reparations owed to Ukraine and all countries downwind from any radioactive exposure as well as those countries long victimized by the Russian informal empire.

  The free world owes Zelensky a debt of gratitude for refusing White House advice to evacuate ahead of the initial Russian invasion. Biden, to his credit, overcame that mistake and allowed Ukraine’s president to do more than any leader since Winston Churchill to defend freedom and democracy in the face of evil. Zelensky deserves the Nobel Peace Prize.

  The policy decisions now looming for Biden may be as great. Celebrations may be premature if Putin seeks to achieve through nuclear weapons what he could not with manpower. To remain silent now, downplay the threat that Russia might use its tactical nuclear weapons, or let fear govern policy will mean the end of the post-World War II liberal order.

  As the Ukraine war enters a crucial new phase, it is time both to step up deterrence and plan for what comes after Russian first use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 09/11/2022 – 22:30

• Chinese PLA Drones Cross Taiwan Strait Median Line For 1st Time, Now Regularly Buzz Island
  Chinese PLA Drones Cross Taiwan Strait Median Line For 1st Time, Now Regularly Buzz Island

  Taiwan’s military has announced in a fresh statement that in the last days China’s PLA military has for the first time sent drones across the Taiwan Strait’s median line, which has long served as the de facto line separating Chinese from Taiwanese territory – though after Nancy Pelosi’s Aug.2nd visit to Taipei Chinese officials said the line has effectively been obliterated. 

  The ministry said, recounting PLA actions of the past days through early Monday, that “45 PLA aircraft flew around Taiwan on Thursday, 25 of which crossed the median line, including a BT-100 unmanned aerial vehicle.” And according to The South China Morning Post, Beijing “also confirmed that more drones had crossed the line on Friday and Saturday.”

  

  “On Monday, it said another PLA drone — identified as a BZK-007 — had entered Taiwan’s southwest air defense identification zone, a rare revelation of the model and its flight route,” the SCMP report continued.

  The report further cited an anonymous Chinese official with knowledge of PLA operations, who said Beijing has been stepping up its “encirclement patrols” using drones as well as manned aircraft, particularly after the earlier in the month incident wherein Taiwan shot down a civilian drone after it came near a Taiwan-controlled island just off China’s mainland.

  That prior September 1st live fire incident involved a potential ‘hobby drone’ believed to be from the Chinese mainland entering “the airspace over the restricted waters of Shiyu Island,” according to a Taiwan defense ministry statement at the time. It was a “first” which signaled further escalation between the two sides.

  The anonymous Chinese analyst or official cited by SCMP commented as follows:

  “The PLA used to send UAVs to perform reconnaissance tasks in sensitive areas of the sky before sending fighter jets for special missions, but the Taiwanese military wasn’t aware of it until recently.”

  Saturday saw a huge number of Chinese jets and warships in the area just off the self-ruled island…

  43 PLA aircraft and 9 PLAN vessels around our surrounding region were detected today (Sept. 10, 2022) until 1700(GMT+8). #ROCArmedForces have monitored the situation and responded to these activities with aircraft in CAP, naval vessels, and land-based missile systems. pic.twitter.com/eEm0HPF9kl

  — 國防部 Ministry of National Defense, R.O.C. 🇹🇼 (@MoNDefense) September 10, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Taiwan has meanwhile been reiterating warnings that its military won’t hesitate to exercise right of self-defense and to counter-attack in the event of Chinese forces entering its territory.

  The military will determine “whether to engage the target and exercise the right of self-defense to counter-attack,” if the foreign drones fail to depart after warnings, Major General Lin Wen-huang said earlier this month.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 09/11/2022 – 22:00

• Volatility And Valuations
  Volatility And Valuations

  Authored by Nick Colas via DataTrek Research,

  We will start today’s discussion with two numbers: 5.6 percent and 3.4 percent. Those are the 20-year compounded annual growth rates (CAGR) for the S&P 500 from 1999 – 2018 on a nominal and real (after-inflation) basis. If those strike you as pathetically low, you are correct:

  • That 5.6 percent nominal return is barely half the S&P’s long run average 20-year CAGR of 10.8 percent.

  • It is also the worst nominal 20-year CAGR since the period spanning the Great Depression.

  • The 3.4 percent inflation-adjusted 20-year CAGR is the worst since the 1969 – 1988 timeframe, where the 1980s bull market only barely made up for the inflationary 1970s. Long run inflation-adjusted S&P returns are 7.1 percent, more than double that 3.4 percent result.

  Now, one might say that 1999 is an unfair starting point, but the 20-year CAGR data tells much the same story about sub-par or merely average returns across other timeframes:

  • 1997 – 2016: 7.6 percent nominal, 5.5 percent real returns

  • 2002 – 2021: 9.4 percent nominal, 7.1 percent real returns

  The reason for these disappointing results for long-term equity investors comes down to two 5-year periods: 1997 – 2002 and 2007 – 2012. In both cases, the S&P 500 went nowhere for half a decade. Returns from 2003 – 2006 were decent, averaging 15 percent with no drawdown years, but that still was not enough to make up for the stagnant bookends on either side of that time span.

  Interestingly, it was not corporate earnings power than caused these two “lost” half decades:

  • S&P 500 earnings were $44.01 in 1997, when the index closed the year at 970. When the S&P got back to that level in Q2 2003, trailing 4 quarter earnings were $48.95/share. That is a difference of 11 percent.

  • In 2007, the S&P earned $82.54/share and the index finished the year at 1,475. The next time the S&P was at similar levels after the Financial Crisis/Great Recession was in early 2013, when the S&P had earned $98.35/share in the prior 4 quarters. The difference here is 19 percent, but the index was flat from 2007 to 2013.

  We cannot blame Interest rates for this contraction in price-earnings multiples. Ten-year Treasury yields were lower in 2003 than 1997 (3 versus 6 percent) and 2013 relative to 2007 (1-2 percent versus 5 percent). If anything, multiples should have recovered more quickly and been higher in 2003 and 2013 and in 1997 and 2007. And yet, they clearly were not.

  The chart below, which shows the 100-day rolling average of the CBOE VIX Index, offers a reasonable explanation for why US equity valuations contracted over 1997 – 2002 and 2007 – 2012 even with the tailwind of lower interest rates. As highlighted, in both periods the VIX was consistently above its long-run average of 20 for years on end. Yes, the S&P bottomed before the end of each period of volatility (2002 and 2009). The trouble was that valuations remained compressed for far longer than just the 2000 – 2002 and 2008 bear markets. That is why the S&P flatlined for 5 years in each case rather than just 1 – 3 years.

  

  We have highlighted the current VIX running averages on the rightmost part of the graph, and those broadly resemble prior problematic periods for equity valuations. Happily, volatility has not yet overly damaged S&P price-earnings multiples relative to pre-pandemic levels. The S&P trades for 17.5x current earnings power of $228/share. In 2019, PE ratios ran between 18.5 – 19.5x. A bit of a haircut, true, but consistent with higher interest rates so let’s call it a wash.

  I do, however, worry about long-lasting equity market volatility far more than I worry about recession. Large public companies know how to make money, even during periods of economic stress, as the data presented above shows. The market-weighted nature of the S&P indexing process constantly resets in favor of businesses that accomplish that task better than others. Recession or no, these are fundamentally positive and permanent features and the cornerstone of our view that US large caps are the most productive asset class for long term investors.

  The problem is that volatility grinds away at investor confidence. The longer it lasts, the lower stock valuations go. That is entirely rational, if unwelcomed, but it takes years to regain investors’ trust after a long bout of volatility. That is how you end up with zero stock market returns for 5 years, and subpar returns for periods as long as 2 decades.

  I think Chair Powell and the Federal Reserve understand this problem, albeit from the wider perspective of creating an environment consistent with sustainable economic growth. The Fed needs to get inflation under control quickly and permanently, because until they accomplish that goal capital markets volatility will remain high. That will limit capital formation and investment over the longer term, making the next economic cycle weaker than it would otherwise be.

  

  Takeaway: while it may be painful in the near-term, long-term US equity investors should be hoping for very aggressive and effective monetary policy over the next 6-12 months and look to add stock exposure to portfolios as that unfolds. 

  That will be the pathway to holding equity valuations at current levels and offers the possibility of better multiples in the next cycle.

  The alternative – another 1-2 years of uncertainty – would threaten structural returns for 5 years or longer. History is clear on that point.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 09/11/2022 – 21:00

• Alaska Reminds Us Ranked Choice Voting Is A Bad Idea
  Alaska Reminds Us Ranked Choice Voting Is A Bad Idea

  Authored by Todd Carnery via RealClear Wire,

  A few weeks ago, Alaska held a special election using ranked choice voting. This was Alaska’s first general election using ranked choice voting, and it also made the state one of the first major jurisdictions in the United States to employ the new voting system. For years many, election experts have pushed ranked choice as a way to fix the problems in America’s elections. In their view, this new system would create more excitement and give more people a voice by offering marginalized candidates a fighting chance. Over the last few years, three major jurisdictions have held ranked choice voting elections, and they have consistently created issues that could lead to more problems in elections.

  

  Maine first held an election using ranked choice voting in 2018. That cycle had a competitive congressional race where the Republican incumbent, Bruce Poliquin, initially finished ahead, but over a week later, the Democratic challenger ultimately won the election. The race led to costly litigation and heated rhetoric.

  Two years later, Maine had a competitive senate race and the media did call the election by the morning after. But this speed only came because Republican incumbent Susan Collins won in a landslide with over 50% of the vote, and by close to double digits. If Maine had had a closer race that cycle, it might have taken weeks to get the results and led to the same controversial rhetoric the rest of the nation saw. The only way to avoid a long convoluted count with ranked choice voting is for someone to win by a large margin. So in close elections, ranked choice voting will undermine confidence in the results.

  About seven months after Collins’ victory in Maine, New York City used ranked choice voting for their mayoral primary. This election faced a lot of scrutiny. In the month leading up to the election, experts noted that the race could face major delays in the count. Despite this notice, the election still experienced so many delays that it took over two weeks to declare results. The public and media faced confusion over the election results. Then-mayoral candidate Eric Adams accused two of his opponents of racist actions by trying to strategically ally using ranked choice voting.

  Vox claimed that the issues in counting the ballots did not occur due to ranked choice voting, but instead were the result of problematic policies and personnel in the New York City government. This theory may have some truth as it did take a lot of time in 2020 to count votes in New York City without ranked choice voting.

  But even if Vox’s claim is true, it still further demonstrates why ranked choice voting is a bad idea right now. Many jurisdictions currently have a lot of problems counting votes in a timely manner. The influx of mail-in voting has already complicated things, so adding ranked choice voting to these jurisdictions would put stress on an unsound structure.

  Alaska has faced similar problems. Like New York, Alaska has long had delays in counting votes, especially lately with the large amount of mail-in ballots. But ranked choice voting has still created further confusion and chaos. It took two weeks to count the initial ballots, and then after that, Alaska took another day to sort through ranked choice voting.

  A Democrat ultimately won the seat, but the Republican candidates combined had initially received roughly 59% of the vote. The results have created raucous debate over whether the outcome spells good news for Democrats, despite the fact that the Democrat only initially received about 40% of the vote.

  On top of these issues, ranked choice voting has failed to deliver on its signature promise: increased representation of third parties. Advocates for ranked choice voting have claimed that it would make voters more open to third-party candidates. But nothing has materialized. Before ranked choice voting, Maine came close to electing an independent governor in 2010, and they elected an independent senator in 2012. Yet in 2018 and 2020, the independent candidates for governor and senate had lackluster showings. In Alaska, an independent candidate who previously had a lot of support even dropped out, claiming an independent candidate could not win.

  Federalism allows for America’s states to conduct their votes in different ways. These differences allow the country to see what systems work best. It is clear from seeing ranked choice voting in action in different jurisdictions, that ranked choice voting will make elections worse in the U.S.

  Todd Carney is a lawyer and frequent contributor to RealClearPolitics. He earned his juris doctorate from Harvard Law School.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 09/11/2022 – 20:30

• The Credit Cycle Is Deteriorating Quickly
  The Credit Cycle Is Deteriorating Quickly

  Via The Variant Perception blog

  The downside growth risks from the bullwhip effect reversal and extreme lows in liquidity indicators favor risk-off positioning.

  We advised clients to sell equities and high yield credit into the rally that started in mid-June and put on hedges. The below is an excerpt from our Aug 9th report to clients.

  US HY spreads look too complacent relative to other market pricing and sharply deteriorating business and credit cycle indicators.

  US HY vs IG relative performance is very divergent with the S&P drawdown (left-hand chart) and spreads are still very low relative to equity and bond market implied volatility.

  

  US HY spreads are below EM IG corporate spreads again and inflows have surged back to US HY funds.

  

  The cyclical picture for HY credit is weak. Extreme lows in liquidity LEIs (left-hand chart) and falling corporate cashflows vs capex and buybacks point to sharply rising odds of a spread blowout.

  

  The latest Fed senior loan officer survey shows banks are tightening loan supply quickly, which generally happens in the run-up to recessions. Banks are also raising credit spreads, which is currently divergent with current HY credit spreads (right-hand chart).

  

  *  *  *

  Get the full picture at variantperception.com

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 09/11/2022 – 20:00

• Populism On The Rise In Canada As "Unelectable" Pierre Poilievre Sweeps Conservative Leadership
  Populism On The Rise In Canada As “Unelectable” Pierre Poilievre Sweeps Conservative Leadership

  Authored by Mark Jeftovic via BombThrower.com,

  Poilievre crushes Laurentian Elite Charest in first ballot

  Pierre Poilievre dispensed the naysayers in the Canadian Conservative leadership convention and swept the top job on the first ballot, something that hasn’t happened since Stephen Harper kicked off his political dynasty in 2004.

  

  The Poilievre movement brought 300,000 new members into the Conservative Party (myself and my wife included), which resulted in 68% of votes. The Laurentian elite anointed (and media approved) candidate was Jean Charest,  who was clubbed like a baby seal, stitching together a mere 16% of the vote. This morning Charest announced his departure from politics.

  

  The entirety of Charest support originated in the Ottawa and Quebec liberal strongholds. Even downtown Toronto, where the Conservatives are dominated by so-called “Red Tories”, voted overwhelmingly for Poilievre.

  Let’s check in with the #CBC 🤣 🤡 😱 pic.twitter.com/QP6sfPYG6R

  — Mark Jeftovic, The C̶r̶y̶p̶t̶o̶ ₿itcoin Capitalist (@StuntPope) September 11, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The few Charest supporters whose lives are confined almost entirely to a bubble-wrapped echo chamber surrounding downtown Ottawa are now ruminating that Poilievre is “unelectable” and can’t beat Justin Trudeau in an election contest.

  

  There have even been rumblings of the prospect that Trudeau may, if Poilievre were to win, call a snap election this fall in order to catch the , unelectable populist off-guard. In August, Jean Charest sent a desperate, hyperventilating email to party members begging for their support and fearmongering the prospect of Trudeau trouncing an unprepared Poilievre this fall:

  

  Firing the Governor of the Bank of Canada and embracing Bitcoin you say? lol. WHERE DO I SIGN UP?

  Any snap election this fall would be the political miscalculation of the century. The map above shows you everything you need to know about what is happening in Canada: a mad-as-hell public, betrayed, and increasingly demonized by  out-of-touch elites from an entitled political class that straddles all parties.

  When the trucker convoy started in February, I said its mishandling would cost all three party leaders their job and it had gutted any remaining credibility of Canadian mainstream media. This thesis is playing out in spades.

  The last time the Canadian public was this disenfranchised and alienated by the incumbent government was when Brian Mulroney’s Progressive Conservative party was literally destroyed in the 1993 federal election, going from 156 seats to 2. They lost their party status, and that was the end of the PCs (until the aforementioned Harper led a reconstituted Conservative Party – with elements of the Reform Party and Canadian Alliance – to power in 2004).

  

  The Liberals are headed for a similar fate. Earlier this year Trudeau and the millionaire Marxist Jagmeet Singh merged their parties into a Liberal/Socialist coalition in a deal that would keep them in power until 2025. If the alliance hangs together that long it will remain to be seen whether Trudeau actually sticks around for the election. It’s more likely that he bows out, leaving one of his underlings holding the bag for the inevitable carnage that will see the Liberals utterly eviscerated the next time Canadian voters get a crack at them.

  *  *  *

  Mark E. Jeftovic is the CEO of easyDNS, co-founder of Bombthrower Media, author and investor. Sign up for The Bombthrower mailing list to get updates straight into your inbox and get a free copy of The Crypto Capitalist Manifesto while you’re at it. Follow me on Gettr, Telegram or if you haven’t been kicked off Twitter yet, there

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 09/11/2022 – 19:30

• Viral TikTok 'Kia Challenge' Sparks Nationwide Rise In Car Thefts By USB-Wielding Kids
  Viral TikTok ‘Kia Challenge’ Sparks Nationwide Rise In Car Thefts By USB-Wielding Kids

  Thefts of Kia and Hyundai vehicles have surged across the country after a dangerous “challenge” went viral on the Chinese-owned video app TikTok. 

  Viral TikTok videos provide instructions on how to hotwire models of 2010-21 Kia and Hyundai vehicles that use a key, not a push button or key fob. The ability to hotwire these models is apparently so easy that youngsters have turned it into a challenge. 

  

  Teenage boys, some barely old enough to legally drive (or even see over the steering wheel), are breaking into these cars, removing the steering column and key slot, using a USB cable to turn the ignition, unlock the steering wheel, and start the vehicle in under a minute. 

  

  Those vehicles are vulnerable to theft because there are no factory-installed anti-theft devices known as immobilizers (RFID transponder embedded in a key that allows the vehicle to recognize the owner’s key). 

  This dangerous TikTok challenge has turned into a game for teenagers:

  “It’s becoming a game even though there is nothing funny about it,” George Glassman, president of the Glassman Automotive Group in Detroit, told FOX 2. 

  Detroit Police Department Lt. Clive Stewart said kids steal the Kia and Hyundai vehicles with their buddies and go on joyrides. 

  Investigators told CNBC the TikTok challenge started last year and has spread nationwide. 

  Police in St. Petersburg, Florida, reported that a third of all cars stolen since mid-July were connected to the viral social media challenge. Los Angeles officials said Hyundai and Kia thefts were up 85% compared with last year. 

  In Chicago, Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart said, “We see no end in sight” to the TikTok-fueled thefts.

  “In our jurisdiction alone, [thefts of certain models are] up over 800% in the last month. 

  “The viral nature of how this has taken off on social media — it’s accelerated this like we’ve never seen … [The perpetrators are] doing it in 20 to 30 seconds. It literally is as old-fashioned as you can imagine, Dart said. 

  He added: “We had an 11-year-old who was one of our most prolific stealers … the notion that they can drive is a fantasy.” 

  CNBC said thieves post videos of stealing the vehicles on the social media platform using the hashtag “Kia Boys”… 

  In Charlotte, North Carolina, there has been a 346% increase in Kia and Hyundai thefts since last year, according to Axios. Thefts in Omaha, Nebraska, for those cars jumped 600% compared to the previous year. 

  In St. Paul, Minnesota, Kia thefts were up 1,300% compared to last year, and Hyundai thefts were up about 600%, according to FOX 9 Minneapolis. 

  There are countless more metro areas and counties across the US reporting several hundred to more than 1000% increase in thefts for Kia and Hyundai vehicles over the last year. 

  A Kia spokesperson told CNBC: 

  “It is unfortunate that criminals are using social media to target vehicles without engine immobilizers in a coordinated effort.”

  News stories across about stolen Kias and Hyundais have erupted over the last year. 

  

  Also, many of these youngsters play violent video games (such as Grand Theft Auto) for hours per day, making them used to violence and eventually become physiologically numb to it. 

  Social media plus violent video games is a toxic combination for youth — don’t even get us started on psychiatric drugs… 

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 09/11/2022 – 19:00

• Copper Prices Are Trading Sideways, But Not For Long
  Copper Prices Are Trading Sideways, But Not For Long

  By Ag Metal Miner, via OilPrice.com

  The Copper Monthly Metals Index (MMI) moved sideways from August to September as the index rose 1.13%. Copper prices remain steady.

  Copper prices began to slide at the beginning of September. After they caught a temporary bounce in late summer, prices began to break through short-term lows, which indicates potential for further price declines. Markets remain highly volatile amid competing macro economic pressures.

  

  Energy Crisis Threatens Europe’s Metal Sector

  Although energy-intensive metals like aluminum and zinc production remain most at risk from soaring energy prices in Europe, the gravity of the crisis appears capable of threatening the continent’s entire metal industry.

  According to Guy Thiran, Director General of the European non-ferrous metals trade association Eurometaux, “European metal producers are already preparing for a life-or-death winter.” Thiran went on to say, “any further reduction of European metals production risks being permanent, threatening job losses and knock-on impacts on a complex web of essential and strategic EU value chains – from medical equipment and critical infrastructure to automotive and aerospace.”

  Impact on Copper and Copper Prices

  For copper, the energy crisis presents three primary challenges. High energy prices will immediately translate to increased input costs for European producers. Roland Harings, CEO of Europe’s largest copper producer Aurubis AG, told investors those costs would be eventually passed down to consumers.

  For this year, Aurubis hedged roughly two-thirds of its electricity costs. However, Europe’s crisis will likely not be resolved in the near term, which would mean prices could see sharp increases by next year. While copper ingot prices have declined since late August, European-sourced products will likely begin to carry a premium over their global counterparts. Over time, this could lead to a deterioration of Europe’s role within the global supply chain.

  Secondly, consumer price pressures will continue to weigh on demand and copper prices. For the second consecutive month, the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction territory in August with a score of 49.6. This represents the lowest reading since June 2020 and was dragged downward by a sharp contraction of new orders.

  Some European businesses have already noted a three-fold increase in energy bills just this year. According to Goldman Sachs, average monthly household energy bills in Europe could rise from 160 euros in 2021 to 600 euros in 2023. Increasingly less affordable energy prices ahead of and into the winter months will likely lead the continent into a recession. Continued demand declines will have a downward effect on prices. 

  Europe Feels the Energy Crisis Strain

  Lastly, as has already occurred with numerous aluminum, zinc and steel producers, shutdowns remain a possibility. Harings noted this as a worst-case scenario outcome in his comments to investors and suggested any such shutdowns would be “very controlled.” Aurubis continues to lobby politicians and regulators for capped energy prices, which could insulate the industrial sector from the current crisis. How the sector fares as a whole will largely depend on whether or not European countries adopt a protectionist approach to such industries as it manages limited energy supplies.

  Chile Rejects New Constitution

  In a historic Sept. 4 referendum, Chilean voters overwhelmingly rejected the new constitution. A resounding 62% of voters and all 16 regions of Chile voted to reject the document. How will this effect copper prices?

  A vote to approve the new constitution would have likely added support to prices amid the current market uncertainty. Most bull narratives for copper are underpinned by waning supply against growing demand. This is largely due to the green energy movement. While annual copper output within Chile remains within a downtrend since 2018, the new constitution would have increased mining restrictions and impeded foreign mine investment. Chile accounts for roughly 28% of global copper output, which makes it the largest copper producer in the world. 

  The rejection means the market dynamics will remain unchanged within Chile. In a broader sense, it could also indicate collapsing momentum of the leftward swing within Chilean politics. President Gabriel Boric vowed to work with Congress for a “new constitutional process.” With such a resounding defeat, however, this will likely mean any future drafts will be far less progressive.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 09/11/2022 – 18:30

• Ukraine's 2nd Largest City Plunged Into Total Darkness As Russia Strikes Key Infrastructure
  Ukraine’s 2nd Largest City Plunged Into Total Darkness As Russia Strikes Key Infrastructure

  Kharkiv, which is Ukraine’s second largest city and is the biggest population center closest to Russia’s border, has been plunged into total darkness Sunday night amid alleged Russian attacks on key infrastructure sites, including large power stations.

  “The center of Ukraine’s second city Kharkiv was plunged into darkness on Sunday evening by an electricity blackout,” Reuters has confirmed of the large-scale outage. It’s further being reported that some city districts are also without water, creating a severe crisis for residents.

  

  “The cause and extent of the blackout in the northeastern city were not immediately clear. There were also unconfirmed social media reports of blackouts in other places and regions,” the report said initially.

  However, Ukrainian officials are pointing to stepped up and deliberate Russian attacks on civilian electrical facilities crucial to the city’s operations. They are viewing it as punishment for the at this point largely successful Ukrainian military counteroffensive which has regained at least 40 towns and villages to the north and east of Kharkiv.

  President Volodymyr Zelensky posted a brief statement to social media along with footage of destroyed infrastructure, denouncing “Deliberate and cynical missile strikes on civilian, critical infrastructure.” He stressed they were not “military facilities” that were attacked. “Kharkiv and Donetsk regions were cut off. In Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy there are partial problems with power supply.”

  Zelensky just posted this video with brief statement: “Deliberate and cynical missile strikes on civilian, critical infrastructure. No military facilities. Kharkiv and Donetsk regions were cut off. In Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy there are partial problems with power supply.” pic.twitter.com/8BullYcdAr

  — Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) September 11, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The governor of the eastern Kharkiv region said that both electricity and water supplies had been disrupted Sunday, citing ongoing Russian attacks on “critical infrastructure” had disrupted electricity and water.

  Additionally, a top Ukraine offical of the Dnipropetrovsk region blamed the Russian military for hitting  “energy infrastructure” – calling it retaliation for “defeat on the battlefield.”

  ⚠️ Confirmed: Real-time network data show a major internet disruption in #Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine; the incident is attributed to a Russian strike on TEC-5 thermal power plant as Ukrainian forces recover Russian-occupied territory 📉

  📰 Background: https://t.co/S0qJQ7CbNv pic.twitter.com/5sXDAwjbS7

  — NetBlocks (@netblocks) September 11, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Global network monitoring site NetBlocks also confirmed a mass disruption in internet access across Kharkiv oblast, citing a “Russian strike on TEC-5 thermal power plant” amid pro-Moscow forces being pushed back.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 09/11/2022 – 18:00

• Sweden's Conservative Right Opposition Bloc Takes Lead In General Election
  Sweden’s Conservative Right Opposition Bloc Takes Lead In General Election

  Update (1800ET): With 80% of the vote counted in Sweden’s general election, the right-wing opposition bloc has taken the lead

  

  Moderate party leader Ulf Kristersson’s conservative bloc, which includes the right-wing populist Sweden Democrats, moved ahead of current Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson’s Social Democrats by a narrow margin on Sunday night. The far-right ‘Sweden Democrats’ took 20.7% of the vote (better than pre-election polls) – making it the second largest party in Sweden now…

  

  The results cement the ascent of Akesson’s party, which was previously shunned as extremists by all established parties.

  As we noted earlier, the bottom line is that for the first time in Swedish history, a far-right populist party appears to have secured serious clout over key policy areas including immigration and policing.

  *  *  *

  Sweden will hold general elections tomorrow, September 11, 2022.

  At the same time, the country is rocked by a wave of violent crime that is unprecedented in modern Scandinavian history.

  Sweden has in just two generations gone from being one of the safest countries in the world to being one of the most dangerous countries in Europe. During the same time, mass immigration has dramatically altered Sweden’s population. 1.2 million of those eligible to vote in the elections in September 2022 were born outside Sweden — about 200,000 more foreigners than in the previous election, in 2018. Nearly one in four first-time voters aged 18-21 was either born abroad or has two parents born abroad. In central Malmö, almost every second person eligible to vote for the first time has a foreign background.

  Muslim immigrants in Sweden, as in other European countries, tend overwhelmingly to vote for the Social Democrats or other socialist or left-wing parties. However, they have now become so numerous and self-confident that they also create their own political parties. Mikail Yüksel, a Turkish-born Muslim, heads Partiet Nyans, which has a following in cities such as Malmö.

  However, the last few weeks has seen the far-right, anti-immigrant Sweden Democrats (SD) party Continues to build on its lead over the main right-wing opposition party in the polls ahead of tomorrow’s parliamentary elections , becoming Sweden’s second largest party general elections in September, Politico reported.

  One recent opinion poll showed support for SD is surging, with around 22 percent saying they would vote for the party, giving it the second largest backing after the ruling Social Democrats on 28 percent. POLITICO’s Poll of Polls, which aggregates polling, has the SD on 20 percent and the Social Democrats on 29 percent.

  

  While similar parties have recently held sway in nearby Finland, Denmark and Estonia, in Sweden SD has been ostracized by mainstream rivals for decades because of its roots among neo-Nazi groups active in the country in the 1990s.

  As Politico notes, the emergence of SD as a key player in Swedish policymaking would still be a radical shock to the Nordic state’s political system, which for the past century has been based largely on consensus building.

  While Sweden’s immigration policies have long been liberal, SD’s platform would aim for zero asylum seekers. Sweden’s criminal justice system has traditionally focused on rehabilitation rather than punishment but SD is calling for longer prison sentences and wider use of deportation.

  “Deport foreign criminals … and no discussion,” says one of SD’s new election posters.

  

  “It is time for the Swedish people to give us a chance,” Sweden Democrats (SD) leader Jimmie Åkesson told a crowd of several hundred on a recent weekday evening.

  “It’s time to give us a chance to make Sweden great again.”

  Åkesson claimed the Social Democrat government had let the welfare state fall apart and said his party was growing because it dared to call out such failings and “call a spade a spade.”

  “Sweden has been a great country, a safe country, a successful country and it can be all these things again,” he said.

  The bottom line is that for the first time in Swedish history, a far-right populist party has a realistic shot at securing serious clout over key policy areas including immigration and policing.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 09/11/2022 – 17:40

• Former Virginia Election Official Hit With Felony Charges Linked to 2020 Election
  Former Virginia Election Official Hit With Felony Charges Linked to 2020 Election

  Authored by Zachary Steiber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  A former Virginia election official faces three charges related to the 2020 election, including corrupt conduct, according to charging documents filed this week.

  

  Michele White, who resigned as registrar for Prince William County in 2021, was indicted on Sept. 6 for three felonies, according to documents reviewed by The Epoch Times.

  White engaged in corrupt conduct between Aug. 1 and Dec. 31, 2020, a grand jury charged. That time period encompassed the 2020 presidential election.

  White is also accused of making a false statement regarding the election and neglecting her duty as an election officer.

  White faces up to 21 years in prison if convicted on all three charges.

  White abruptly resigned weeks ahead of the June 2021 primary election, the Prince William Times reported. At the time, the secretary for the Prince William County Electoral Board told the paper that the resignation didn’t relate to White’s handling of recent elections, while White declined to comment on why she resigned.

  White couldn’t be reached for comment. The secretary didn’t respond to a request for comment.

  Pamela Walker, vice chair of the board, declined to comment. “It’s before my appointment to the Board,” she told The Epoch Times in an email.

  London Steverson, chair of the board, also noted that the events occurred before he was sworn in.

  “I only pray that Justice will prevail,” he told The Epoch Times via email.

  Conduct Allegedly Did Not Impact Outcome

  White’s conduct didn’t influence the 2020 election results, according to the Prince William County Office of Elections.

  “Her conduct did not impact the outcome of any election contest,” the office told The Epoch Times in an email.

  Eric Olson, who replaced White, gave information to authorities that led to the charges, according to the office.

  “In 2022, the Electoral Board and new Director of Elections have built an entirely new leadership team that is dedicated to fair and accurate elections. Many improvements and best practices have been adopted to ensure a safe and transparent voting experience for the voters of Prince William County. It was the new Director of Elections that reported these discrepancies to the Commissioner of Elections and State Board of Elections earlier this year that led to this investigation by the Attorney General of Virginia,” the office said.

  “The Office of Elections has no further comment at this time as this is pending litigation and our office will preserve the office’s records for public review when the matter has concluded.”

  Approximately 62 percent of the votes cast in Prince William County for president went for Joe Biden, according to the results the county reported. Donald Trump received 35 percent of the vote, with the rest going for Jo Jorgensen or write-in candidates.

  Before White served as the Prince William County registrar, she worked in the same position for Culpeper County.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 09/11/2022 – 17:30

• Average US Credit Card Rate Hits Highest On Record
  Average US Credit Card Rate Hits Highest On Record

  While the Fed’s rate hiking cycle is about to push the overnight Fed Funds Rate to 2.50% in two weeks, banks have so far completely refused to translate these sharply higher wholesale rates into benefits for US savers. In fact, as the following breakdown of consumer deposit rates at the largest US bank, one would think that the US is still stuck at ZIRP.

  

  But while big money center banks refuse to even consider lifting the rate on their savings accounts, they have no such qualms when it comes to how much they charge on credit cards, and according to Bankrate.com’s latest survey, the average credit card rate is now 18.03%, the highest on record since January 1996.

  According to Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate, “the average credit card rate is now a record-high 18.03%, surpassing the previous record of 17.87% which was set in April 2019. And Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has made it clear that the Fed is not done raising rates – not by a long shot. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there’s a strong likelihood the Fed will implement another 75-basis point hike later this month, with smaller increases projected for November and December. The best guess, according to investors, is that rates will rise another 150 basis points by the end of the year.”

  
   
  “Almost all credit cards have variable rates which track the Prime Rate, which is typically three percentage points higher than the federal funds rate which is set by the Federal Reserve. So there’s a direct pass-through from the Fed’s actions to credit cardholders. Card issuers tack a profit margin onto the Prime Rate, often something like 12% or 13%. Rate hikes generally affect new and existing balances, so most credit cardholders are currently facing rates that are 225 basis points higher than they were just six months ago. During the last rate hike cycle, it took the Fed three years to raise rates 225 basis points (from December 2015 to December 2018). This time, it only took them 4 ½ months from mid-March to late July. And there’s more to come.”

  “There’s a significant cumulative effect to these rate hikes. Let’s say you started the year with a $5,000 balance on a credit card charging 16%. Minimum payments would have kept you in debt for 184 months and racked up $5,406 in interest charges. That would have been bad enough, but at 18.25%, those minimum payments will now drag on for 189 months and accumulate $6,241 in interest. That’s an increase of $835. Of course, the best practice is to pay way more than the minimum – pay it all if you can. If that’s not possible, forget about chasing rewards and seek the lowest interest rate possible. There are 0% balance transfer offers (https://www.bankrate.com/finance/credit-cards/balance-transfer/) that last as long as 21 months.”

  We get more details on these record rates courtesy of creditcards.com, according to which the average APR is even higher, at 18.17%, and writes that more than a month after the Federal Reserve announced its latest three-quarter-point rate hike, several more lenders adjusted the APRs they advertise on brand-new cards, including Discover, USAA and Navy Federal Credit Union.

  Until this week, Discover was among the last major lenders to match the Fed’s most recent rate hike. Bank of America, Chase, Citi, American Express, Wells Fargo, Barclaycard and U.S. Bank have also recently hiked the APRs they advertise by 0.75 percent. So have most smaller lenders, such as Fifth Third Bank, PNC, Union Bank, HSBC and KeyBank, among others.

  As a result, the national average card APR has broken record after record this summer, ultimately soaring to its highest point ever in recent weeks. Until this summer, the highest APR average CreditCards.com had ever recorded was 17.8 percent — a difference of 0.37 percentage points.

  Now, APRs are set to soar again as the Federal Reserve gears up for another big rate announcement and other lenders continue to catch up to previous federal rate hikes. So far, the Federal Reserve has increased rates by a historic 2.25 percentage points since March and is expected to hike rates again later this month.

  And with more lenders still due for another rate hike, the average card APR is poised to soar

  Already at a record high, the national average card APR won’t hold still for long. The average APR for brand-new cards is already well-above previous record highs, with the average minimum card APR climbing well above 18 percent. A year ago, by contrast, the national average credit card APR registered at just 16.22 percent.

  

  Meanwhile, the average maximum APR on a brand-new card offer has also climbed sharply in recent months, increasing most recently to 25.59 percent, according to CreditCards.com data. As a result, many new cardholders are currently being assigned APRs well above 20 percent.

  CreditCards.com only considers a card’s lowest possible interest rate when calculating the national average. However, most credit card offers advertise a wide range of possible APRs — particularly on general market and rewards cards that appeal to a broad audience. Although some applicants with the very highest credit scores may be assigned a card’s lowest rate, many others are instead assigned either a card’s maximum possible interest rate or an APR that falls directly in the middle of the two extremes.

  Currently, the average median card APR is 21.88 percent, according to CreditCards.com data.

  But cardholders hoping for a reprieve from such high rates are unlikely to get one anytime soon. The Fed has made it clear that it plans to continue hiking rates for the foreseeable future until prices cool off more substantially.

  As a result, it is likely that the average real APR will hit a mindblowing 20% by the time the Fed finally pushes the economy into recession.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 09/11/2022 – 17:00

• The 'Never Let A Crisis Go To Waste' Crowd Strikes Again
  The ‘Never Let A Crisis Go To Waste’ Crowd Strikes Again

  Authored by By Matt Weidinger & Tim Sprunt via RealClear Wire (emphasis ours),

  Rahm Emanuel, then chief of staff to President-elect Barack Obama, famously issued what has come to be known as Rahm’s rule: “You never want a serious crisis to go to waste. And what I mean by that [is] it’s an opportunity to do things that you think you could not do before.”

  

  Emanuel argued that the 2008 financial crisis afforded the new Obama-Biden administration the opportunity to “do things” they couldn’t otherwise. Trillions of dollars in higher spending later, President Biden recently dusted off Rahm’s Rule for yet another purpose — justifying his administration’s college debt cancellation plan.

  The plan is controversial. Experts estimate it will cost taxpayers between $500 billion and $1 trillion over the coming decade, all added to the federal debt. The Wall Street Journal suggests “there has never been an executive action of this costly magnitude in peacetime….Nothing comes close to this half-trillion-dollar or more executive coup.” Vulnerable Democratic candidates are rejecting the proposal, and economists Larry Summers and Jason Furman warn of serious inflationary effects from cancelling loans for 43 million Americans. 

  For President Biden, the plan also marks an abrupt about face on presidential authority. In April 2020, just after Congress enacted the mammoth CARES Act, then-candidate Biden said “the next recovery package” should include “an immediate cancellation of a minimum of $10,000 of student debt per person.” At the height of the pandemic, Biden thought it was Congress’ job — and not the President’s — to legislate debt cancellation. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) was even more explicit in July 2021, stating that “People think that the President of the United States has the power for debt forgiveness. He does not. He can postpone. He can delay. But he does not have that power. That has to be an act of Congress.”

  The Biden administration repudiated that position, while pointing to the waning pandemic as the crisis that permits them to act without Congress. The Washington Post notes that the unemployment rate for college graduates is now just two percent so “it’s hard to make the case that college graduates are still facing an unprecedented crisis.” Nonetheless, the administration argues their action is consistent with a 2003 statute behind the current college loan payment pause. As Secretary of Education Miguel Cardona put it, “this is targeted relief based off of [the] pandemic.” The Trump Department of Education took the opposite view, and the courts may ultimately decide the fate of the Biden policy.

  The bigger picture suggests that the pandemic is an all-too-convenient excuse. How do we know?

  Because prominent Democratic lawmakers proposed college debt cancellation well before its onset in early 2020. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), while campaigning for president in June 2019, called for the cancellation of up to $50,000 of debt for 95 percent of borrowers. Fellow presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) went a step further, proposing that same month to cancel all Americans’ college debt. Then-candidate Joe Biden was late to the debt cancellation party, but his eventual running mate Kamala Harris in July 2019 proposed “to cancel up to $20,000 in student debt for borrowers who received Pell grants,” as the Biden-Harris administration has just done.

  This is only the latest example of the administration applying Rahm’s Rule during the pandemic. The expanded child tax credit paid to 65 million children under the March 2021 American Rescue Plan is another. That policy had nothing to do with the pandemic, as evidenced by the administration’s subsequent calls to make the expanded benefit permanent. Yet new monthly federal checks paid even to non-working parents during the second half of 2021 effectively revived work-free federal welfare, long a liberal goal. Those expanded monthly checks have since expired — perhaps until the next crisis strikes.

  If implemented, the administration’s college debt cancellation plan is similarly unlikely to be the end. In fact, it might even be an accelerant for more debt. Why would parents save for college and pay out of pocket when they could take out loans in anticipation of a future taxpayer bailout? And what liberal politician won’t promise to relieve those and other debts for key constituencies — especially in an election year? It would be foolish to expect otherwise if the costs can again be passed on to federal taxpayers. That will be especially likely when future crises strike, and another generation of politicians dusts off Rahm’s Rule.

  Matt Weidinger is a Rowe Fellow in poverty studies at the American Enterprise Institute. Tim Sprunt is a research assistant at the American Enterprise Institute.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 09/11/2022 – 16:30

• Ukraine Retakes Towns Within 50km Of Russian Border Amid Rumors Putin To Issue Full Declaration Of War
  Ukraine Retakes Towns Within 50km Of Russian Border Amid Rumors Putin To Issue Full Declaration Of War

  The Ukrainian government is touting a weekend advance in the county’s east at an “astonishing” rate as the major counteroffensive announced by Kiev over a week ago continues. Western news headlines are also widely echoing the new optimism after months of the steady Russian takeover of the east, which lately drifted into a stalemate along the front lines.

  “Ukrainian troops are advancing in eastern Ukraine, liberating more cities and villages. Their courage coupled with Western military support brings astonishing results,” Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Oleh Nikolenko announced. He urged the West to help keep the momentum against Russian front lines, adding in the statement: “It’s crucial to keep sending arms to Ukraine. Defeating Russia on the battlefield means winning peace in Ukraine.”

  

  On Saturday the Russian military issued a rare acknowledgement of a “regrouping” of its forces in Kharkiv Oblast. Kiev and its Western backers are taking the statement as an admission of retreat: “To achieve the goals of the special military operation to liberate Donbas, a decision was made to regroup Russian troops stationed in the Balakliya and Izyum regions, to bolster efforts along the Donetsk front,” the defense ministry explained.

  Ukraine’s deputy head of the Kharkiv region military administration, Roman Semenukha, has since announced on a public TV broadcast the liberation of at least 40 towns and villages: “We can officially announce the liberation of more than 40 settlements. The situation is changing incredibly quickly and there are many, many more such [de-occupied] settlements,” he said.

  “The situation is dynamically positive. And indeed the situation is changing,” he said, noting these 40 settlements were places where Ukrainian forces now have total control of the situation. In the comments he denied that it was simply a matter of Russian forces strategically withdrawing from these front lines to deploy elsewhere, but that—

  “There are fierce, fierce battles in many areas of the front and everything is very, very difficult. If we are talking about the military component, then you just have to be patient.”

  In some cases towns which have been held by the Russian army for multiple months running appear to have been penetrated by the Ukrainian counteroffensive, such as Kupiansk in east Ukraine, which served as a strategic supply hub for Russian forces.

  .@TheStudyofWar map shows the extent gains Ukraine has made (blue) during its ongoing counteroffensive. It’s simply staggering. Russian forces have been routed with many abandoning their positions and weapons to retreat. pic.twitter.com/0EZ4BSVwDn

  — Alex Plitsas 🇺🇸 (@alexplitsas) September 10, 2022

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  Ukrainian forces have also entered the key city of Izium. A number of social media videos have emerged showing Ukrainian soldiers posing with captured Russian weapons and tanks.

  According to The Moscow Times, pro-Russian Donetsk officials have acknowledged the intensified fighting is putting pro-Kremlin forces under strain in the east:

  Ukraine’s push appears to have caught Russian troops largely off guard. Moscow made the surprise announcement Friday it was dispatching reinforcements to Kharkiv, with images on state media showing tanks and artillery and support vehicles moving in columns on dirt roads.

  Denis Pushilin, a pro-Russia separatist official, said Saturday that the situation in the town of Lyman in the Donetsk region was “very difficult” and that there was also fighting in “a number of other localities,” particularly in the northern part of the region.

  Ukrainian troops and tanks with captured Russian ammunition. https://t.co/s6L6r8sYoH pic.twitter.com/2IPv0N3udp

  — Rob Lee (@RALee85) September 11, 2022

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  Ukraine’s chief commander of the armed forces General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi said on Sunday that his army has pushed Russian forces away from the north of Kharkiv to within 50km of the border with Russia for the first time since the invasion began more than six months ago.

  Ukrainian flags have been seen and widely reported as being raised in villages close to the Russian border, including the town of Kozacha Lopan.

  Expect a Russian escalation in the US proxy war soon. The NATO led counteroffensive with NATO weapons is putting pressure on Putin inside of Russia. This may lead to a change of status from “Special Operation” to a declaration of war and the use of a far more aggressive approach.

  — Kim Dotcom (@KimDotcom) September 10, 2022

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  Currently there are media rumors saying Moscow is preparing to issue a formal declaration of war, as opposed to a current limited “special operation” – which would mean greater mobilization across armed forces branches and society. The pressure within Moscow political circles on Putin to do so will continue to grow amid Ukrainian forces’ positive momentum, as as the US and NATO continue ratcheting up the already steadily flowing weapons systems.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 09/11/2022 – 16:00

• Hedge Fund CIO: "Illiquidity Is The New Leverage And Flows Are More Important Than Fundamentals"
  Hedge Fund CIO: “Illiquidity Is The New Leverage And Flows Are More Important Than Fundamentals”

  By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

  La Haine

  “Illiquidity is the new leverage and flows are more important than fundamentals,” said the CIO, one of our industry’s great thinkers. “This has been our framework for considering vulnerabilities in the post-2008 world,” he said. “Following the GFC, an intended consequence of successive rounds of quantitative easing was a shift of systemic risk from banks to the asset management industry,” he explained, the Fed’s $9trln balance sheet now bloated beyond comprehension, quantitative tightening accelerating, rates rising at an unprecedented pace.

  

  “Asset managers do not have flexible balance sheets — they buy assets when they get inflows and sell assets when they have outflows,” continued the CIO, sitting high atop a prodigious pile, amassed through decades of navigating monetary mischief, financial crises, bull markets, bears. “For over a decade, QE expanded balance sheets and asset managers have only experienced inflows. In contrast, banks – if they have sufficient capital – can take on risk when others are selling assets. They can choose to flex their balance sheets.”

  “This shift of fragility from leverage in banks to liquidity in asset managers has occurred in tandem with a move to higher allocations to risky assets because of very low, or negative, interest rates,” continued the CIO. “Now, central banks are fighting an inflation problem they underestimated. They are forced to sharply tighten monetary policy and need to tighten financial conditions in the form of falling asset prices. The key is that the process be orderly, which it has been thus far. No dislocation yet. So far, so good.”

  

  “The first half of 2022 was a discount rate shock,” he said. “From here, as short rates march higher, investors will allocate away from risky and into risk-free assets.” Outflows expose the liquidity mismatch between the liquidity terms offered to the investor and the actual liquidity of the underlying investments. “The authorities and markets implicitly assume liquidity is plentiful and market behavior will remain orderly. We have been questioning that assumption and examining what might cause a disorderly liquidation?”

  “I think we see the answer,” said the CIO in response to his own question. “The liquidity available to financial markets is being pincered between the forces of:

  1. the Federal Reserve’s Reverse Repo Facility (RRP) facility, its interaction with central bank reserves and the level of interest rates,
  2. the inflating nominal economy’s need for more of the commercial banks’ aggregate balance sheet, and
  3. the reticence of commercial banks to expand their balance sheets because of regulatory pressure on them to be crisis proof in the face of an oncoming hurricane.”

  “And these liquidity pressures are weaponized by poor trailing 6-month portfolio performance and rising real rates, creating a genuine threat that we may be on the brink of The Great Liquidation,” explained the CIO.

  “La Haine is a French film,” he said, translating a passage for his unsophisticated American friend. “In it, a man falls from a 50-story building. The chap, as he falls, repeats something to himself constantly for reassurance: ‘So far so good… So far so good… So far so good.’ But the important thing is not the fall. It’s the landing.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 09/11/2022 – 15:30

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• Jan. 6 Prisoners And Families Expose Brutal Truth About Jail Lockdown
  Jan. 6 Prisoners And Families Expose Brutal Truth About Jail Lockdown

  Authored by Patricia Tolson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  It began without warning. A Jan. 6 prisoner had emerged from his cell without a mask. When it was all over, the jail was in lockdown and several inmates had been pepper sprayed, handcuffed, and thrown into solitary confinement. Inmate tablets were quickly confiscated, but not before several prisoners had time to send text messages, exposing the brutal truth of what happened. Many of those messages were obtained by The Epoch Times. In exclusive interviews with The Epoch Times, the family members of several Jan. 6 prisoners share their stories.

  

  The identities of those in the inmate text exchanges obtained by The Epoch Times have been redacted for fear they will suffer further retaliation.

  ‘[Expletive] Just Went Down’

  According to the text message sent by one Jan. 6 prisoner to a family member, “[Expletive] just went down” at the Correctional Treatment Facility in Washington, D.C., around 9:46 a.m. on Sept. 5. One of the guards had just “assaulted McAbee because he wasn’t wearing a mask.”

  The prisoner’s name is Ronald Colton McAbee. His wife, Sarah, described to The Epoch Times what happened.

  McAbee had just been let out of his cell by a pod officer in order to receive his medications. Inmates, Sarah explained, have to take their meds in front of the nurse to prove they swallowed the pills. The med cart was about 25 feet from the door of McAbee’s cell. When he walked out of the cell to go get his meds, he was not wearing his mask. Lieutenant Crystal Lancaster began yelling at him and ordering him to put his mask on. He said he was going to get his medication and didn’t need his mask. It was after McAbee had taken his medication it is alleged that Lancaster doused his face with OC spray.

  While pepper spray and OC spray are essentially comprised of the same ingredients, the higher concentration of Oleoresin Capsicum (OC) is what sets them far apart. A March 1994 report (pdf) issued by the United States Department of Justice acknowledged the more potent and potentially lethal properties of OC Spray when used outside of recommended guidelines or on someone with pre-existing respiratory conditions, such as asthma.

  With McAbee on the ground in pain, Lancaster ordered the pod officer to handcuff him. As McAbee was being handcuffed, Lancaster sprayed him again, point blank, in the face.

  Sarah’s account is validated by the texts sent by other Jan. 6 prisoners to their family members.

  

  By now, Sarah said other Jan. 6 prisoners had emerged from their cells. Three of them, Ron Sandlin, Bart Shively, and Ryan Nichols, began yelling at Lancaster, telling her to stop her assault on McAbee. Sandlin was then handcuffed. He and McAbee were taken away to solitary confinement. Shively and Nichols were also sprayed, cuffed, and placed in isolation pods. According to Sarah, there are no cameras in the isolation pod area.

  “It’s very concerning because the guards can come in and do whatever they like to these people with no accountability,” she said.

  Messages sent by two more Jan. 6 prisoner provides corroboration and more detail.

  

  A History of Abuse and Sub-Human Conditions

  Sarah then recalled that the facility has a long history of sub-human conditions. She also noted that Lancaster, notorious among Jan. 6 prisoners and their family members for being particularly vulgar and brutal, had been banned from the Jan. 6 pod for verbal abuse and for stealing the inmates’ mail.

  “I don’t know if that ban was lifted or why she was in that pod,” she said.

  Her account was again validated independently by the messages from other Jan. 6 prisoners.

  

  

  

  According to Nicole Reffitt, the targeted abuse of Jan. 6 prisoners is nothing new at the “D.C. Gulag.” Her husband, Guy Reffitt, has suffered there for nearly 20 months. Guy, Nicole explained, was the first Jan. 6 defendant to go to trial and the first one they tried to charge with the domestic terrorism enhancement.

  “Luckily, the judge did not grant that,” Nicole told The Epoch Times, adding that her husband never entered the Capitol building, touched anyone, or damaged anything. “He was still sentenced to seven and a half years,” she lamented. “We’re still trying to wrap our brains around that.”

  “I have been unable to talk to my husband,” Nicole said further, adding that the tablets the prisoners use to communicate with their family members were suddenly confiscated. “He has not been able to send me a message. The last message he sent me was that they were being assaulted and officers had taken off their body cams.”

  A text message from a prisoner’s family member confirmed that the inmates’ tablets had been confiscated.

  

  She also revealed that the prisoners’ electronic grievance system has been turned off and they have not been able to file grievances with the jail for over a month. This means none of the incidents of abuse are being documented, and no one is being held accountable. Even the paper grievances filed by prisoners are “torn up in front of their faces.”

  The history of abuse was validated by the message of another Jan. 6 prisoner.

  

  In the meantime, Sarah said her husband was in his cell drenched in OC spray for over 12 hours before he was taken to medical and “thrown into a hot shower.” Afterward, guards made him put the same OC spray-soaked clothing back on before putting him back in his cell. Four hours later it began to reactivate on his skin and in his eyes. He begged to be allowed to shower with soap and water. He was told to “suck it up.” It wasn’t until around midnight that he was allowed to shower with soap and water and put on clean clothes.

  Mistaken Identity or Intentional Retaliation?

  Despite repeated pleas to U.S. senators, representatives, the Bureau of Prisoners, and U.S. marshals, Bonnie Nichols says nothing has changed. As reported by The Epoch Times in July, her husband Ryan faces 11 charges, including multiple infractions with the words “Deadly or Dangerous Weapon” attached. The “Deadly or Dangerous Weapon” was pepper spray.

  In the early morning hours of Sept. 7, Bonnie received heartbreaking series of text messages from Ryan describing both his physical and mental state after he was assaulted by Lancaster and thrown into solitary confinement. He believes he was attacked by Lancaster in a case of mistaken identity.

  

  However, Bonnie is convinced the assault on her husband was a matter of intentional retaliation for the lawsuit that was filed Aug. 10 “that named her specifically.”

  According to the Petition for Writ of Habeas Corpus Under 28 U.S.C. 2241 and Complaint for Declaratory and Injunctive Relief (pdf), Lancaster—the guard in charge of the solitary confinement area known as “The Hole”—”verbally and mentally abuses inmates.”

  “She also oversees officers and guards who do the same, and is suspected of bringing drugs into the prison,” the complaint states further. “The presence of drugs in the prison was confirmed by both the U.S. Marshals’ report and the testimony of the DC City Council Chair on the Judiciary and Public Safety.”

  According to reports, one correctional officer was already arrested at the D.C. facility in February for allegedly accepting bribes to bring drugs, knives, and cell phones to inmates. There have also been multiple drug overdoses and two drug-related deaths “that further corroborate the presence of drugs in the DC Jail.”

  Bonnie also noted that Lancaster had been banned from the Jan. 6 pod “for weeks.” She would taunt the inmates, calling them names like “white cracker [expletive]” and telling them she’s going to “[expletive] your daddy and give you a little sister.”

  The last time Ryan was thrown in solitary was apparently in retaliation for a grievance he had filed. Because he suffers from PTSD, due to the traumas suffered during his military service, Ryan was placed on suicide watch However, he was not allowed to see a nurse or to receive mental health counseling. They simply put him in a straight jacket and “strapped him to a bench.”

  Now Ryan is again in solitary. The pod is still on lockdown. Because he was not allowed to shower for 48 hours after the assault, he has chemical burns all over his body from the OC spray. The Emergency Response Team told him to “stop being a [expletive].”

  

  “I’m angry at this point, over what’s continuing to happen,” Bonnie told The Epoch Times. “It’s like this jail is untouchable. It’s aggravating that these men are still in the same situation after two years.”

  Aside from the abuse and abhorrent conditions, Bonnie said her husband’s “discovery was taken from him.”

  All of the work he’s been doing on his case, all of the motions, everything he has been working on for his case for the past 19 months was on a thumb drive that has now gone missing from his cell for the second time. The guards claim to know nothing–again.

  ‘There Will Be Hell to Pay’

  Don Nichols, Ryan’s father, was with Bonnie when she spoke with The Epoch Times.

  Don had been on the phone all morning. He contacted the Director of the Federal Bureau of Prisons, the United States Marshals Service. He has been advised that “the best bet is to get a hold of your Senators and Congressman.”

  “[Rep.] Loui Gohmert has already done everything he can do,” Don told The Epoch Times, praising the Texas Republican congressman for his dedication to the plight of Jan. 6 prisoners. Bonnie said Gohmert “has been doing more than anyone else has.”

  Don wants to know why so many Jan. 6 prisoners have been charged with using a “dangerous or deadly weapon” called pepper spray but guards can douse “pre-trial detainees who have not been convicted of any crime, multiple times, before they’re shackled and after they’re shackled” and suffer no consequences.

  “I ask one simple question,” Don charged angrily. “Can I file criminal charges against Lieutenant Lancaster on behalf of my son? That’s the question I want someone who’s in charge of this system to answer. Because I’m willing to fly to Washington D.C. on whatever day saying I am ready to file charges against each and every person who perpetrated this crime against these men.”

  For Bonnie, her concern is, “How much can a human being take until it’s too much?” She recalled how several Jan. 6 defendants who weren’t even incarcerated had already committed suicide. Christopher Stanton Georgia, 53, of Fulton County, Georgia, died from a self-inflicted gunshot wound just days after the Capitol breach. At 5:30 in the evening on Friday, Feb. 25, just weeks before his sentencing, 37-year-old Matthew Perna went into his garage and hung himself. On July 20, 47-year-old Mark Roderick Aungst of South Williamsport, Pennsylvania, became the third Jan. 6 defendant to kill himself.

  “I am telling you,” Bonnie vowed, her voice breaking. “If my husband takes his life over this, there will be hell to pay.”

  The President Made Hate a ‘Patriotic Duty’

  According to Joseph McBride, the attorney representing Nichols and several other Jan. 6 prisoners and defendants, the prison guards are retaliating against Nichols because of the habeas petition filed against Lancaster.

  “There is no other explanation,” McBride told The Epoch Times. “Our plan is to argue for his release today.”

  According to a motion (pdf) filed on the morning of Sept. 8 in the United States District Court for the District of Columbia, McBride petitioned “the Court to dismiss all charges against” Ryan Nichols “for the reason that the government, in the person of the President, has intentionally and irreparably poisoned the jury pool.”

  Citing 31 separate statements Biden made against MAGA Republicans during his 24-minute speech on Sept. 1, McBride charges that “The President has incited the entire nation to hate the January 6th defendants as a patriotic duty.”

  According to the Defendant’s Emergency Motion for Immediate Pre-Trial Release and Request for an Emergency Hearing (pdf) McBride also “moves the Court to order the immediate temporary release” of Ryan Nichols “from pretrial confinement” because:

  1. the DC Jail is presently retaliating against Defendant for filing a civil case against the Jail
  2. the length of Defendant’s pretrial confinement is a violation of his due process rights
  3. the Defendant is being held in conditions of confinement that violate his civil and human rights.

  McBride has also petitioned the court (pdf) for a change of venue.

  Nowhere Else to Go

  In the aftermath of the assault against their loved ones, each Jan. 6 family member is dealing with the situation in their own ways. Sarah has requested the CCTV video footage so she can see for herself what happened. Bonnie and Don want answers. Nicole Reffitt is heading to D.C. “to stand in vigil with some other 1-6ers outside the jail” to sing with the prisoners.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 09/10/2022 – 23:30

• Americans Love The NFL, But Change Is Looming
  Americans Love The NFL, But Change Is Looming

  While Baseball is often referred to as “America’s favorite pastime”, the NFL has long surpassed the MLB as the nation’s favorite professional sports league.

  As Statista’s Felix Richter notes, for several reasons, including first and foremost its better suitability for television, football flew by baseball as Americans’ favorite sport to watch in the 1960s and hasn’t looked back since. In recent years, baseball has even been surpassed by basketball, as younger audiences prefer the action-packed, star-studded NBA over what many young viewers consider the dragging affair of a three-hour baseball game.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  According to findings from Statista’s Global Consumer Survey, the NFL remains the number 1 among major professional sports leagues in the U.S., at least for now. While 52 percent of self-declared sports fans follow the National Football League, compared to 42 percent for the NBA and 31 percent who follow the MLB, looking at the youngest group of respondents reveals a worrying trend for NFL executives.

  Among 16- to 25-year-olds, the NFL only plays second fiddle to the NBA, with just 33 percent of young sports fans following the league. The NBA reaches 40 percent of Gen X fans, who are overall less likely to follow any professional sports leagues than their older compatriots.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 09/10/2022 – 23:00

• New Merchant Code Approved For Card Purchases Of Guns, Ammunition
  New Merchant Code Approved For Card Purchases Of Guns, Ammunition

  Authored by Mimi Nguyen Ly via The Epoch Times,

  An international standards body has approved the creation of a merchant category code for gun retailers to identify credit card sales of guns and ammunition.

  

  The International Organization for Standardization (ISO)—a non-governmental body based in Geneva, Switzerland that creates standards across various industries, including the financial services industry—has approved the new merchant category code for gun and ammunition stores, according to a Sept. 9 announcement from Amalgamated Bank, a New York-based bank that had applied to ISO for the merchant category code.

  The approval took place at a meeting on Sept. 7, ISO confirmed to Payments Dive in an email. A subcommittee of the organization approved the code, an ISO spokeswoman told Reuters.

  Merchant category codes comprise four digits and are used to classify retailers across various industries.

  The approval from ISO enables banks that process payments from gun retailers to decide whether they should assign the new category code to gun merchants. The code could help monitors track where a person spends money via card, but wouldn’t show what specific items were purchased.

  Currently, credit card companies classify retailers with other merchants as either “5999: Miscellaneous retail stores” or “5941: Sporting Goods Stores,” according to CBS News. While a new merchant category for firearm stores has been approved, it doesn’t have a code value assigned just yet, as of late Sept. 9.

  Amalgamated Bank, which calls itself “America’s socially responsible bank,” said that its decision to push for creating the new code is “the result of nearly three years of research and partnership with issue experts at Guns Down America and Giffords Law Center and broad support from elected officials, pension funds, and others across the United States.”

  Amalgamated Bank was founded by union workers nearly 100 years ago. The bank first tried to apply to create the gun merchant code in July 2021, but the application had been denied twice by the ISO, after which it applied again for the new merchant category code in June this year, reported CBS News.

  Bank Urges Card Companies to Adopt New Category Code

  Following the ISO approval, Amalgamated Bank is calling for credit card companies that typically follow the ISO standards to implement the new merchant category, but it is unclear whether the companies will adopt it.

  Priscilla Sims Brown, the president and CEO of the bank, said on Sept. 9: “We all have to do our part to stop gun violence. And it sometimes starts with illegal purchases of guns and ammunition.”

  “The new code will allow us to fully comply with our duty to report suspicious activity and illegal gun sales to authorities without blocking or impeding legal gun sales,” she said in a statement.

  “This action answers the call of millions of Americans who want safety from gun violence and we are proud to have led the broad coalition of advocates, shareholders, and elected officials that achieved this historic outcome.”

  …

  Some groups have criticized the ISO approval.

  Mark Oliva, the managing director for public affairs for the National Shooting Sports Foundation, a U.S. trade association for the firearms industry, told The Center Square that the code’s creation was “flawed on its premise.”

  “Those who believe it will help law enforcement do not provide details on what should be considered suspicious purchases,” Oliva told the outlet.

  He separately told Gothamist: “This decision chills the free exercise of constitutionally protected rights and does nothing to assist law enforcement with crime prevention or holding criminals accountable. Attaching codes specific to firearm and ammunition purchases casts a dark pall by gun control advocates who are only interested in disarming lawful gun owners.”

  Lars Dalseide, a spokesperson for the National Rifle Association Institute for Legislative Action (NRA-ILA), the lobbying arm of the gun rights advocacy group NRA, told The Center Square:

  “Implying that firearm purchases are suspicious demonstrates an obvious bias these attorneys general hold against anyone who chooses to exercise a fundamental constitutional right.

  “Creating specific credit card codes for firearms lays the groundwork for a de facto firearm registration. Suggesting otherwise is either shortsighted or deceptive,” Dalseide added.

  “The true travesty is that New Yorkers and Californians must continue facing the violent criminals pushed back on the streets thanks to these two attorneys general reckless soft-on-crime policies.”

  …

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 09/10/2022 – 22:30

• Slava Raytheon: Zelensky To Headline Conference Of US Defense Companies
  Slava Raytheon: Zelensky To Headline Conference Of US Defense Companies

  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has throughout much of the six-month long Ukraine war been busy rallying support to his side by addressing dozens of Western countries’ parliaments, for which Ukraine has since been rewarded with billions of dollars in foreign defense and humanitarian aid. His foremost theme has been a constant refrain of his military urgently needing more, more and more weapons. He’s even requested advanced fighter jets, months ago asking Congress to “close the skies” (or in essence a No Fly Zone).

  Now for the first time it seems he’ll go straight to the source, as he’s set to be the keynote speaker, via video link, to a major meeting of American defense contractors later this month. The Hill is confirming that “he headlines the annual Future Force Capabilities Conference and Exhibition hosted by the National Defense Industrial Association (NDIA)” in Austin, Texas on September 21.

  

  Ukraine’s defense minister Oleksii Reznikov is also scheduled to address the conference. Naturally, both are expected to emphasize a message that more and heavier arms are needed if Ukrainian forces hope to sustain their eastern and southern counteroffensive, which in the last days has been widely reported as successful – at least so far.

  Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov has on Saturday admitted his army has had to “regroup” troops from Balakliya and Izyum in Kharkiv Oblast. This is being taken as a sign Ukraine’s military is being pushed back from Kharkiv and could be taking heavy losses, with the day prior Zelensky announcing Ukraine has taken back over 30 settlements in the region.

  “We are gradually taking control over more settlements, returning the Ukrainian flag and protection for our people.” Zelenskiy said. “Our army, intelligence, the Security Service of Ukraine continue active actions in several operational directions. They continue successfully.”

  This is the message he’s expected to stress in addressing the major arms expo in August. In the audience will be representatives from the leading military weapons manufacturers in the US: 

  News of the Ukrainian president’s speech to the NDIA — whose membership includes defense industry giants like Raytheon Technologies, Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics — comes as Kyiv looks to fend off Russia’s invasion as it drags through its sixth month.

  Eight defense contractors — including Raytheon, Lockheed and General Dynamics — attended a meeting at the Pentagon in April to discuss how the U.S. could speed up production to help Ukraine fend off Moscow’s war.

  The U.S. has committed $15.2 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the beginning of the Biden administration, including $14.5 billion since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24.

  A number of independent observers are noting just how obviously this brings to the fore one of the key motives of US hawks, especially officials tied closely to the military-industrial complex, who have shown no interest in pushing both warring sides to the negotiating table. In fact, evidence has recently emerged strongly pointing to Washington and London playing the role of behind-the-scenes saboteurs to prior ceasefire talks.

  Fresh off his appearance at Wall Street, where he pitched corporations on the plunder of his country’s assets, Zelensky will appear at a conference of arms makers in Texas to present his country’s war as a fantastic business opportunity. #SlavaRaytheon https://t.co/zSNTT6Kcp3

  — Max Blumenthal (@MaxBlumenthal) September 9, 2022

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  Instead the past months have seen these officials by and large argue for Congress to sign off on essentially a “blank check” bonanza of Ukraine arms procurement. Like other recent conflicts, for example in the Middle East, they see the Russia-Ukraine war as fundamentally an opportunity.

  Journalist Max Blumenthal sums up the unspoken reality nicely: “Fresh off his appearance at Wall Street, where he pitched corporations on the plunder of his country’s assets, Zelensky will appear at a conference of arms makers in Texas to present his country’s war as a fantastic business opportunity.”

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  And Zelensky will without doubt continue to get the red carpet rolled out for him by the world’s wealthiest defense firms, given he singularly remains the arms contractors’ #1 foreign client – and all at the expense of the common US taxpayer to boot.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 09/10/2022 – 22:00

• "Nothing To Do With Man" – Astrophysicist Says Climate-Cultists "Are On A Gravy Train" To Make Money
  “Nothing To Do With Man” – Astrophysicist Says Climate-Cultists “Are On A Gravy Train” To Make Money

  This year’s heat waves and subsequent droughts resulted in the hottest summer in recorded European history, according to a report by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) – an EU-funded Earth observation agency.

  “We’ve not only had record August temperatures for Europe, but also for the summer, with the previous summer record only being one year old,” said Freja Vamborg, a senior scientist at the Copernicus Climate Change Service.

  Of course, this ‘record’ heat in the summer has prompted activists to trot out the same old tropes that this ‘confirms climate change’ is having a catastrophic effect on the world already. With the energy crisis facing Europe, this is not a particularly comfortable topic as numerous nations abandon – albeit apparently temporarily – their green policies in favor of not letting their citizenry starve or freeze.

  Given that it’s all ‘settled science’, the following RT News anchor was probably expecting a rote response to his questions about climate change.

  

  He was in for a big surprise…

  Piers Corbyn – physicist, meteorologist, and elder brother of former UK Labor Party leader Jeremy Corbyn – explained to the shocked RT anchor that the climate “has always been changing, but this has nothing to do with man”

  The astrophysicist instead believes that changes in the Earth’s climate and its weather are dictated primarily by cyclical activity on the surface of the sun (and not, pointedly, by the effects of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere). 

  “For one thing science doesn’t do settled opinions,” Corbyn says.

  “And for another they are all wrong.”

  “Surely man has something to with this,” exclaims the struggling new anchor, to which Corbyn responds:

  “No, the only connection is that man is here at the same time as the sun and the moon are doing things.”

  The frustrated anchor falls back to consensus, asking “so how come then that so many climate change scientists disagree with you and they get so much support for that?”

  Corbyn’s laughing response was straightforward:

  “…those that say this are just trying to make money… They’re on a gravy train for heaven’s sake.”

  Watch the brief interview below:

  This guy is a legend 😆 pic.twitter.com/Gt50kCU320

  — Art TakingBack 🇺🇸 (@ArtValley818_) September 9, 2022

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  Finally, we note that in former UK PM Boris Johnson once lauded Corbyn as “the world’s foremost meteorological soothsayer”.

  We suspect this is the last time Mr.Corbyn will be allowed on TV…

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 09/10/2022 – 21:30

• DC Mayor Declares Public Emergency After Busloads Of Migrants Overwhelm Nation's Capital
  DC Mayor Declares Public Emergency After Busloads Of Migrants Overwhelm Nation’s Capital

  The Mayor of Washington DC has declared a public emergency after the sanctuary city received more than 9,400 illegal aliens from the states of Texas and Arizona.

  “Our response involves how can we live up to our values and make sure we have a humane, efficient process to deal with a crisis not of our making,” Mayor Muriel Bowser (D) told reporters during a briefing.

  

  The emergency was declared on Sept. 8, and enables Bowser to spend $10 million establish the Office of Migrant Services, in order to help migrants arriving from border states. The city also hopes to snag some federal funding, or to be reimbursed for the expenditures.

  According to Bowser’s office, the new system is necessary “so that our homeless services system can continue to function in support of DC residents and so that we can properly respond to the ongoing humanitarian crisis and provide a humane assistance to migrants.”

  According to Ranae Eze, press secretary for Texas Gov. Greg Abbot, Bowser is a hypocrite.

  “In a city with a population over 700,000, she’s claiming an emergency for just over 7,900 migrants being bused into her sanctuary city,” Eze told the Epoch Times. “That’s barely 1 percent of the population of Washington, D.C. The true emergency is on our nation’s southern border—not in our nation’s capital—where small Texas border towns are overrun and overwhelmed by hundreds of migrants every single day as the Biden Administration dumps them in their communities.

  “Instead of fearmongering and complaining about a few thousand migrants in her sanctuary city, Mayor Bowser should call on President Biden to do his job and secure the border—something the President continues failing to do. Governor Abbott’s invitation is still open for Mayor Bowser to visit the border and see the actual crisis firsthand.”

  More via the Epoch Times‘ Zachary Stieber:

  Thousands of Immigrants

  Texas and Arizona have been busing thousands of illegal aliens who were released by U.S. authorities to Washington since the spring. Approximately 9,400 illegal immigrants have been bused to the nation’s capital since then.

  Most of them move on to other destinations, according to Washington officials. Many of the immigrants are being housed in shelters and hotel rooms.

  Texas has also sent illegal immigrants to New York City and Chicago.

  The Republican governors of Texas and Arizona, Abbott and Doug Ducey, respectively, say the busing will continue indefinitely. They have said they are trying to trigger a stronger response to border enforcement from President Joe Biden.

  Bowser said officials thus expect hundreds more buses to drop immigrants off in Washington during the fall.

  The mayor has repeatedly criticized the governors.

  Bowser has twice asked the Department of Defense for National Guard assistance but has been denied both times.

  “I’m very disappointed in that,” Bowser said on Sept. 8. “And I’m very disappointed in not having a federal site that we can use.”

  She said conversations with the Biden administration are ongoing.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 09/10/2022 – 21:00

• China Creates 'Digital Twin' Of Americans: Former DoD Cybersecurity Expert
  China Creates ‘Digital Twin’ Of Americans: Former DoD Cybersecurity Expert

  Authored by Hannah Ng and Tiffany Meier via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  As reports have emerged that Chinese military-linked firms gather American DNA, these firms are now capable of creating digital replicas of Americans, according to John Mills, former director of cybersecurity policy, strategy, and international affairs at the Department of Defense.

  “They have the capacity to create these complex models of each of us. They’re making digital twins of us,” Mills told the “China in Focus” program on NTD News, sister media outlet of The Epoch Times.

  

  Digital Twins

  He pointed to BGI Group, formerly Beijing Genomics Institute, which is the leader of the CCP’s genome project, as well as a leading producer of COVID-19 tests.

  In 2017, the company’s leader boasted that it had reached an industrial level of success in progressing through genetic reform and gene editing, to gene synthesizing, and mass-producing multiple viruses, bacteria, and large yeasts.

  “They can do all kinds of nefarious things with no constraint or loss. They have our data.” That data could be used to tailor a follow-up virus to target certain non-Han ethnicities, Mills warned.

  Mills referred to Beijing’s military-civil fusion policy, calling Chinese companies “extensions of state security, state intelligence.”

  That includes every Chinese company and every company that is incorporated in China, even if it is American in origin, he stressed. “They are the eyes and the ears and the collectors.”

  That means when Americans give information to these companies, their data is essentially going to Chinese intelligence, Mills said.

  “So they know about every one of us … I would presume that I have a file in China,” he added.

  BGI Targets American Researchers

  Mills raised further concerns about BGI’s group’s record of targeting distinguished American researchers.

  “They have a long history of targeting some of our best researchers … there is a proven track record that almost immediately veers into national security concerns with China,” he noted.

  The cybersecurity expert pointed to Chinese recruitment programs such as the “thousand talents plan,” allegedly to lure foreign academics to work in China, a process that facilitates the transfer of technology and know-how to the regime.

  “China was just using money to essentially buy off professors and academics. So they have a very active program to go after our intellectual property, and essentially, to co-opt some of our leading researchers,” he said.

  Mills referred to the Biden administration’s canceling of the “China Initiative” launched by the Trump administration in 2018 to combat the Chinese regime’s state-sponsored espionage and theft of trade secrets, calling the move “ridiculous and silly.”

  “It’s going to [take] many years for … the CCP to demonstrate they can be trusted in these circles because right now, all the evidence is leaning against them,” he said.

  Americans, Safeguard Your Medical Records

  In his opinion, Americans, especially those related to the government sector, should not do DNA tests. Furthermore, he suggested that Americans closely safeguard their medical records.

  “Be aware that anything you do digitally … is being vacuumed up,” he warned.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 09/10/2022 – 20:30

• China Reveals Discovery Of New Lunar Mineral As Space Mining Race Accelerates
  China Reveals Discovery Of New Lunar Mineral As Space Mining Race Accelerates

  One day after Chinese state media published a story about discovering a new phosphate lunar mineral, China National Space Administration (CNSA) (equivalent to NASA) released a mission timeline for future moon exploration trips.

  

  On Friday, state media outlet Global Times announced that lunar samples collected in 2020 during the Chiang’e-5 million contained a small amount of a new lunar mineral called “Changesite-(Y)” in rock and dust samples.

  The single crystalline particle measured around 10 microns in diameter – or around one-tenth of a human hair, according to SCMP, citing Chinese official Wang Xuejun of the China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC)

  A new mineral, Changesite-(Y), was discovered from the moon samples retrieved by #China‘s Chang’e-5 probe, making China the third country to discover a new mineral on moon, Chinese authority said on Friday. pic.twitter.com/XjatWOtraY

  — Global Times (@globaltimesnews) September 9, 2022

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  Changesite-(Y) is a phosphate mineral found in lunar basalts. The discovery of the new mineral was confirmed by Commission on New Minerals, Nomenclature and Classification of the International Mineralogical Association.

  “[The discovery] provides more basic scientific data for the evaluation and development of lunar resources and has deepened mankind’s knowledge of the moon and the solar system,” Dong Baotong, vice-chairman of the China Atomic Energy Authority (CAEA), said. 

  Separately, the lunar sample also contained helium-3, a rare element on earth that it known to be abundant on the moon. The isotope has a wide variety of uses – including as a potential fuel source.

  Xuejun said the findings within the 2020 sample “provides fundamental scientific data for future assessment of Helium-3 in lunar samples and their exploration.“

  Following the announcement, Liu Jizhong, an administrator with the China Lunar Exploration and Space Program Center, was quoted by state media outlet CCTV as saying three lunar orbiters would be sent to the moon in an accelerated exploration program over the next year years.

  So what’s so special about Helium-3? 

  The European Space Agency (ESA) explained the idea of mining a “clean and efficient form of energy from the Moon” is entirely possible because the lunar surface has “large quantities of Helium-3.” 

  “It is thought that this isotope could provide safer nuclear energy in a fusion reactor, since it is not radioactive and would not produce dangerous waste products,” ESA continued. 

  The race to mine the moon and extract all sorts of minerals is well underway, and China is proving that. We have pointed out mining could start as early as 2025. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 09/10/2022 – 20:00

• Florida Watchdog Groups Allege Mail-in Ballot And Voter Roll Violations In 2020, 2022
  Florida Watchdog Groups Allege Mail-in Ballot And Voter Roll Violations In 2020, 2022

  Authored by Steven Kovac via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  A citizens’ group called the Florida First Freedom Alliance (F3A) last week presented evidence to election officials and law enforcement officers that more than a thousand mail-in ballots were voted from undeliverable addresses in Orange County in the Aug. 23 primary election.

  The group also released evidence alleging that across the state serious irregularities occurred involving thousands of unrequested changes of addresses being recorded on voter registration rolls without the knowledge or consent of the affected voters.

  

  A separate citizens’ group called the Lake County Election Integrity and Voter Protection Coalition (LCEIVPC) collected the data from public source information.

  F3A spokesperson Christopher Gleason, of Clearwater, told The Epoch Times, “Based on an analysis of the 2020 election and the data that we have thus far for the 2022 primary, we are seeing Supervisor of Elections Offices sending out envelopes with vote-by-mail ballots enclosed to mailing addresses that cannot receive these vote-by-mail ballots.

  “The resulting problem is that there are thousands of completely undeliverable vote-by-mail ballots that were later turned in to election officials as legitimately cast vote-by-mail ballots.”

  F3A has made available to election officials a spreadsheet containing the results of a computer crosscheck conducted by LCEIVPC of what Gleason calls “only a small sliver” of those who requested mail-in ballots in Orange County.

  

  The data allegedly reveals that almost 1,100 vote-by-mail ballots were sent to and cast from undeliverable addresses in that small sample alone.

  “This is what happens when dirty voter registration rolls result in massive numbers of undeliverable ballots,” Gleason told The Epoch Times.

  “The question is, who is voting them?”

  The Orange County Supervisor of Elections Office did not respond to a request for comment by press time.

  LCEIVPC spokesperson Kris Jurski told The Epoch Times in a recent phone interview:

  “There are thousands of people across Florida listed on the voter rolls whose address is flawed with either incomplete or inaccurate information—missing a digit in the zip code, an apartment complex with inaccurate, incomplete, apartment numbers, or none at all, and misspelled words. Small errors. But just enough to render a mail-in ballot undeliverable.

  “The whole game is to generate undeliverable ballots—a portion of which are somehow being obtained and voted by somebody else,” alleged Jurski.

  “And the volume of those undeliverable ballots also serves the purpose of muddying the waters, creating confusion, and overwhelming the system,” he said.

  After analyzing the July 2022 voter rolls, Jurski’s group informed Florida elections officials that in just one of the state’s 27 U.S. congressional districts (District 11) nearly 60,000 residential addresses were in need of updating and correction.

  The group found over 30,000 residential addresses that were designated by the United States Postal Service as undeliverable.

  Jurski stated there were thousands of address splits in which voters had their addresses temporarily altered in 2020 and that the practice continues today.

  “Performing the switch is how an unauthorized actor could get a person’s mail-in ballot without his or her knowledge.

  “This may be why there are so many obviously faulty addresses kept on voter registration rolls.”

  It may also explain the experience reported by many in-person voters who showed up at their polling places to vote on election day and were told by the election worker they had already voted, Jurski said.

  “Thousands of these ballots are being voted by someone—then just in time for the election, the addresses are electronically switched back, making the scheme all but undetectable by local election officials.

  “This is classic identity theft,” alleged Jurski.

  He explained that the voter’s name, ID number, house number (but not his street name), and all other information in his voting records remain the same on the registration rolls.

  He said the switches are done in low volume over a wide area of jurisdictions, and that there is less such activity during primaries because fewer votes are needed to impact the outcome of races than in general elections.

  “Many elections in Florida are decided by less than one percent or even by just a handful of votes, so the situation is very concerning,” he said.

  Jurski told The Epoch Times that a citizens’ canvass of 12th Street in the city of Clermont in Lake County, conducted on Aug. 27, just days after Florida’s Aug. 23 primary election, found residents completely unaware of a switch that was made to their voter registration records.

  Without their knowledge, request, or assent, all of the 12th Street voters surveyed had their addresses electronically changed to say Red Belly Road and then changed back again weeks later.

  “We obtained 37 sworn affidavits from the 37 people registered to vote on 12th Street attesting that they never requested a change of address.

  

  “A married couple residing on 12th Street showed us two voter information cards displaying their names and inaccurately listing them as living on Red Belly Road,” Jurski said.

  Alan Hays, Supervisor of Elections in Lake County, told The Epoch Times in a Sept. 5 phone interview that he was aware of the 12th Street incident.

  Hays, a Republican, said he wants to assure people that every change on the Lake County voter rolls was made by “authorized personnel, either directly employed by Lake County or contracted with it.

  “We are not in violation of any law. We completely follow the letter of the law.

  “I don’t question the intent of the citizens’ groups. In fact, I share their desire for pure and clean elections.”

  Hays explained that the 12th Street changes (to Red Belly Road and back to 12th Street again) resulted from the United States Postal Service referring to the block as 12th Street, while the Lake County E-911 System calls the same thoroughfare Red Belly Road.

  “As we were in the process of making our precincts coincide with newly redrawn district lines, the consultant we employed used the E-911 designation of Red Belly Road instead of the name 12th Street.

  “Our office chose to use the E-911 Geo Point Data System for our redistricting work,” explained Hays.

  Greg Holcomb, the director of public safety support and 911 coordinator for Lake County, told The Epoch Times, “We have never referred to 12th Street in Clermont as Red Belly Road. It has never been named Red Belly Road.

  “There was a 12th Street in the Wekiva Falls RV Resort that was renamed Red Belly Road, but that was in Sorrento and has nothing to do with the 12th Street in Clermont. They are on opposite ends of Lake County.”

  United States Postal Service records show the communities have different zip codes.

  In all but the above-mentioned case of the married couple’s voter information cards, the Postal Service considered the block residents’ mail undeliverable if it bore the Red Belly Road address.

  According to Jurski, the long-time personal acquaintance between the couple and their mail carrier may have been a factor in their receiving the misaddressed envelopes containing the inaccurate voter information cards.

  In his letter to election officials, Gleason alleged that the existing safeguards provided by Florida law to prevent the misuse of mail-in ballots are being ignored by many county election supervisors.

  He pointed to Florida statute 101.6103, a law governing mail-in ballot procedure, which says in part, “Ballots shall be addressed to each elector at the address appearing in the registration records and placed in an envelope which is prominently marked Do Not Forward.”

  The F3A provided election authorities with screenshots of mail-in ballot envelopes that were sent out to voters that do not bear what they allege to be the statutorily required instruction “Do Not Forward.”

  Instead, the envelopes only say, “Return Service Requested.”

  “That is a clear violation of the plain language of the law,” alleged Gleason.

  “Specific words have specific meanings in the law and in postal regulations.”

  Gleason contends that the deficient labeling does not clearly and definitively inform apartment managers, RV park managers, or mailroom clerks handling other people’s mail that it should not be forwarded.

  As evidence of the problem, Gleason’s group provided authorities with a screenshot of a vote-by-mail ballot envelope that had been forwarded in Pinellas County.

  Similar evidence of such occurrences in other counties, such as Pasco, has also been sent along to election officials.

  Dustin Chase, the deputy supervisor of elections in Pinellas County, disagrees that the envelopes used by his office violate the statute.

  Chase told The Epoch Times in a phone interview, “From our perspective and that of our attorneys, we are conducting elections legally pursuant to all laws.”

  Chase described F3A as “a very sincere group of patriots that is dedicated to ensuring the integrity of our elections. We respect them.”

  However, Chase went on to state that the group is not understanding that the section of the Florida election law it cites applies only to “all-mail-in elections,” such as referendums, where no candidates or offices appear on the ballot and there is no in-person voting.

  Gleason contends that the plain statutory language governs the handling of mail-in ballots in all elections.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 09/10/2022 – 19:30

• From AOL To Google: Visualizing The Most Popular Websites From 1993-2022
  From AOL To Google: Visualizing The Most Popular Websites From 1993-2022

  Over the last three decades, the internet has grown at a mind-bending pace.

  In 1993, there were fewer than 200 websites available on the World Wide Web. Fast forward to 2022, and that figure has grown to 2 billion.

  As Visual Capitalist’s Carmen Ang shows in this animated graphic by James Eagle provides a historical look at the evolution of the internet, showing the most popular websites over the years from 1993 to 2022.

  The 90s to Early 2000s: Dial-Up Internet

  It was possible to go on the proto-internet as early as the 1970s, but the more user-centric and widely accessible version we think of today didn’t really materialize until the early 1990s using dial-up modems.

  Dial-up gave users access to the web through a modem that was connected to an active telephone line. There were several different portals in the 1990s for internet use, such as Prodigy and CompuServe, but AOL quickly became the most popular.

  AOL held its top spot as the most visited website for nearly a decade. By June 2000, the online portal was getting over 400 million monthly visits. For context, there were about 413 million internet users around the world at that time.

  

   

  But when broadband internet hit the market and made dial-up obsolete, AOL lost its footing, and a new website took the top spot—Yahoo.

  The Mid 2000s: Yahoo vs. Google

  Founded in 1994, Yahoo started off as a web directory that was originally called “Jerry and David’s Guide to the World Wide Web.”

  When the company started to pick up steam, its name changed to Yahoo, which became a backronym that stands for “Yet Another Hierarchical Officious Oracle.”

  Yahoo grew fast and by the early 2000s, it became the most popular website on the internet. It held its top spot for several years—by April 2004, Yahoo was receiving 5.6 billion monthly visits.

  

   

  But Google was close on its heels. Founded in 1998, Google started out as a simpler and more efficient search engine, and the website quickly gained traction.

  Funny enough, Google was actually Yahoo’s default search engine in the early 2000s until Yahoo dropped Google so it could use its own search engine technology in 2004.

  For the next few years, Google and Yahoo competed fiercely, and both names took turns at the top of the most popular websites list. Then, in the 2010s, Yahoo’s trajectory started to head south after a series of missed opportunities and unsuccessful moves.

  This cemented Google’s place at the top, and the website is still the most popular website as of January 2022.

  The Late 2000s, Early 2010s: Social Media Enters the Chat

  While Google has held its spot at the top for nearly two decades, it’s worth highlighting the emergence of social media platforms like YouTube and Facebook.

  YouTube and Facebook certainly weren’t the first social media platforms to gain traction. MySpace had a successful run back in 2007—at one point, it was the third most popular website on the World Wide Web.

  

   

  But YouTube and Facebook marked a new era for social media platforms, partly because of their ​​impeccable timing. Both platforms entered the scene around the same time that smartphone innovations were turning the mobile phone industry on its head. The iPhone’s design, and the introduction of the App store in 2008, made it easier than ever to access the internet via your mobile device.

  As of January 2022, YouTube and Facebook are still the second and third most visited websites on the internet.

  The 2020s: Google is Now Synonymous With the Internet

  Google is the leading search engine by far, making up about 90% of all web, mobile, and in-app searches.

  What will the most popular websites be in a few years? Will Google continue to hold the top spot? There are no signs of the internet giant slowing down anytime soon, but if history has taught us anything, it’s that things change. And no one should get too comfortable at the top.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 09/10/2022 – 19:00

• "An Ugly Thing To Watch" – China Is Facing An Employment Crisis
  “An Ugly Thing To Watch” – China Is Facing An Employment Crisis

  Authored by Anne Stevenson-Yang, co-founder of J Capital Research, via TheMarket.ch,

  The implosion of the real estate sector has stalled the Chinese growth machine. As a consequence, unemployment is rising. Western consumer goods companies with a significant presence in the country will feel the knock-on effects.

  

  The projectile that was the Chinese economy has slowed and turned back toward earth. The Zero Covid policies and the real estate crisis brought China’s economy to an unnatural equipoise, seeming to hover in a no-growth zone for a few quarters.

  Now, having failed to reach escape velocity, the rocket ship has turned around. The growth inversion will be an ugly thing to watch: millions of Chinese unemployed, crashing demand.

  Back in the late 1990s, foreign visitors to China were bowled over by the GDP growth rates: 15%, 17%, and with low inflation. Rural people moved to the coast to live in factory dorms and work 80 hours a week making widgets for the world. Farmers planted cash crops and sold the produce in «free markets» that had opened across the country then took the money home and built themselves new houses.

  For decades, the country had been held back, in poverty, with high levels of savings but no investment in industry or infrastructure. Suddenly, all that changed. Commerce became possible. Everyone’s lot in life was improving.

  It was a great run: thirty years of optimism, thirty years of investment-fueled growth. The machine sputtered in 1998 and then in 2008, but leaders doubled, tripled, and quadrupled down, flooding the economy with investment capital.

  When government leaders feared crashing international demand in the global financial crisis, they responded by pouring resources into real estate. Where the investment of the previous decades had largely gone into road, rail, telecom, and computerization that improved productivity, after 2008, the government force-fed the economy on capital to keep the economic machine going, and productivity sputtered.

  Domestic Labor Market Slumps

  It was going to take just a gentle push to make it all end, and that came with the property crash in summer 2021. Now, the news is all about unemployment. The government reports that about one-fifth of young people under 25 who are seeking work cannot find any. Although statistics on employment among older people are opaque, occasional independent surveys in the countryside indicate high levels of unemployment. Civil servants in the wealthiest regions are taking massive pay cuts.

  Foreign investors have long taken a view that only 350 million reasonably prosperous people in the coastal cities matter to the economy. But even these wealthier people are seeing employment erode: banks, private education, brokerages, and other white-collar industries are laying off major portions of their workforce. The press is full of reports of layoffs in tech companies. The pharmaceutical sector is bleeding staff. Individual income tax receipts are falling.

  The shuffling of feet is turning to a stampede. Formerly mighty companies like Tencent are selling off parts. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is selling down its stake in EV maker BYD. The founder of Huawei told employees that the company must focus on «survival.» Chinese real estate companies listed in Hong Kong reported that their earnings have declined by 87% so far in 2022.

  Consumption Slows Down

  To combat this, Chinese banks are furiously lowering rates and pushing out loans. The central bank is fighting the decline of the Renminbi, apparently spending down its stock of foreign exchange reserves but predicting that Renminbi will soon crest the long-feared 7:1 exchange rate against the U.S. dollar.

  An «unemployment rate» is all but meaningless in a country that has not adapted to the workforce changes post 1995. China does not count rural people (about 60% of the population) or most gig workers. It accounts very poorly for people who do not have labor contracts—which is most of the migrants working in cities. We also know China will do its utmost to hide distress from the outside world.

  But that is becoming more difficult, as public company numbers continue to disappoint. High unemployment means lower income, which means less spending, which means higher unemployment. We will see tumbling sales for consumer staples companies like Coca-Cola, Unilever, Tingyi, and Unipresident.

  Smartphone sales are falling sharply. Nike is gloomy. Starbucks saw a 40% drop in sales in the most recent quarter. No more will China be the capital of luxury spending. And demand for commodities like coal and copper and iron ore is already tumbling.

  Executives based in China will be the last to admit the problem. People like the CFO of Adidas continue to profess «commitment» to the Chinese market. One wonders whom they are trying to convince.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 09/10/2022 – 18:30

• Twitter Ramps Up Wrongthink Apparatus Ahead Of Midterms
  Twitter Ramps Up Wrongthink Apparatus Ahead Of Midterms

  As Democrats seek to hobble the competition ahead of the 2022 midterms – between Trump’s ongoing Mar-a-Lago raid drama, a Steve Bannon indictment over fundraising for a private wall, and Biden’s DOJ slapping 35 Trump associates with warrants or subpoenas – ‘Big Tech’ is doing their part to protect establishment narratives from dangerous wrongthink.

  

  Four weeks ago, Twitter announced they would be ‘pre-bunking’ election claims during the 2022 midterms “to get ahead of misleading narratives” and “to proactively address topics that may be the subject of misinformation.”

  Then, on Wednesday the social media giant announced the expansion of ‘Birdwatch‘ – the company’s fact-checking program which has contributors flag “misleading” tweets with “notes that provide informative context.”

  According to the company, users who see a Birdwatch disclaimer are “20-40% less likely to agree with the substance of a potentially misleading Tweet than someone who sees the Tweet alone.”

  As Just the News notes, however, big tech censorship during the 2020 presidential election – ranging from evidence of voting irregularities, to Hunter Biden’s laptop – was essentially election interference.

  Twitter banned MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell for claiming the 2020 election was stolen, suspended several accounts linked to state audits of the election, and claimed in fact checks that ‘mail-in voting was secure‘ despite evidence to the contrary.

  Twitter fact checks claimed that mail-in voting was secure despite the warnings about the vulnerability of mail-in voting to election fraud sounded in the 2005 report of the bipartisan Commission on Federal Election Reform cochaired by former President Jimmy Carter, as well as numerous issues with mail-in ballots reported during the 2020 presidential election.

  Following Election Day, Twitter slapped numerous tweets about the 2020 election with the warning “This claim about election fraud is disputed.” The ubiquitous warning eventually became an internet meme, with social media users — including celebrities and corporations — posting random facts or jokes accompanied by their own “disputed” label. –Just the News

  In fact, there’s ample evidence of voting irregularities – so much that Just the News has compiled 26 such examples (excerpted in part below):

  • Corrupt conduct — Ex-Prince William County voter registrar Michele White has been charged by Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares with two felony counts alleging corrupt conduct as an election official and making a false statement, and one misdemeanor charge of willful neglect of duty by an elected official. The county’s Office of Elections said White’s conduct “did not impact the outcome of any election contest” and was discovered by her successor.

  • Felons voting — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis announced in August that 20 convicted felons were charged with felonies for allegedly voting illegally in the 2020 election in the state.

  • Voter fraud in Wisconsin — As many as 22 voter fraud referrals for the 2020 election have been made over the past year by local clerks, according to a Wisconsin Elections Commission report.

  • Missed mail-in ballots — On Aug. 5, 26 mail-in ballots for the 2020 election that had never been delivered to their intended voters were discovered in a U.S. Postal Service in Baltimore. 

  • Illegal voting in Ohio — Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose has referred four people for prosecution after they allegedly voted twice, once in Ohio and once in another state. In addition, 11 illegal immigrants were referred to Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost for prosecution in August, with 10 allegedly registering to vote and one who may have illegally voted. LaRose also referred 62 people suspected of election fraud for prosecution in February.

  • Illegal ballot drop boxes — The Wisconsin Supreme Court ruled earlier this month that the 570 drop boxes used during the 2020 election were unlawfully approved by the Wisconsin Election Commission. “Only the legislature may permit absentee voting via ballot drop boxes,” the court declared. “WEC cannot. Ballot drop boxes appear nowhere in the detailed statutory system for absentee voting. WEC’s authorization of ballot drop boxes was unlawful.” State Rep. Janel Brandtjen told Just the News that hundreds of thousands of votes were cast in the illegal drop boxes in the 2020 race, in which Joe Biden was certified the winner over Donald Trump by fewer than 21,000 votes.

  • A foreign intrusion — Federal authorities have confirmed that two Iranian nationals successfully hacked into a state computer election system, stole 100,000 voter registrations and used the data to carry out a cyber-intimidation campaign that targeted GOP members of Congress, Trump campaign officials and Democratic voters in the November 2020 election in one of the largest foreign intrusions in U.S. election history. The defendants “were part of a coordinated conspiracy in which Iranian hackers sought to undermine faith and confidence in the U.S. presidential election,” U.S. Attorney Damian Williams declared in an indictment.
  • The laptop lie — More than 50 national security experts, countless news organizations and large social media firms falsely told American voters in fall 2020 that the Hunter Biden laptop with damning revelations about Biden family corruption was Russian disinformation. In fact, the laptop was authentic and already in the FBI’s possession, and Hunter Biden was already under criminal investigation before voters cast their 2020 ballots. The false narrative had significant impact. According to a Polling Company survey for the Media Research Center, 45.1% of Biden voters were unaware of the censored laptop story. “According to our poll,” MRC’s Newsbusters reported, “full awareness of the Hunter Biden scandal would have led 9.4% of Biden voters to abandon the Democratic candidate, flipping all six of the swing states he won to Trump, giving the President 311 electoral votes.”
  • Alleged bribery — The former state Supreme Court justice appointed by the Wisconsin Legislature to investigate the 2020 election concluded that millions of dollars in donations to election administrators in five Democrat-heavy municipalities from the Mark Zuckerberg-funded Center for Tech and Civic Life violated state anti-bribery laws and corrupted election practices by turning public election authorities into liberal get-out-the-vote activists. “The Zuckerberg-funded CTCL/ Zuckerberg 5 scheme would prove to be an effective way to accomplish the partisan effort to ‘turnout’ their desired voters and it was done with the active support of the very people and the governmental institution (WEC) that were supposed to be guarding the Wisconsin elections administrative process from the partisan activities they facilitated,” Justice Michael Gableman wrote.
  • Illegal ballot harvesting in Wisconsin — Gableman also exposed an extensive ballot harvesting operation in nursing homes involving third-party activists illegally collecting the ballots of vulnerable residents. State election regulators “unlawfully directed the municipal clerks not to send out the legally required special voting deputies to nursing homes, resulting in many nursing homes’ registered residents voting at 100% rates and many ineligible residents voting, despite a guardianship order or incapacity,” Gableman wrote in his explosive report.
  • Georgia ballot harvesting probe — Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger opened a criminal investigation into allegations that liberal activists engaged in ballot harvesting prohibited under state law. Raffensperger said he was planning to issue subpoenas to identify a whistleblower who allegedly admitted he engaged in the operation, and there could be prosecutions. The True the Vote election integrity group alleged in a formal state complaint that the man admitted his role and identified nonprofits who funded it at $10 per ballot delivered. The watchdog group also claimed it had assembled cell phone location records pinpointing the alleged harvesting by as many as 240 activists.  
  • Bad voter signatures? — A review of Maricopa County’s mail-in ballots in Arizona’s 2020 presidential election estimated that more than 200,000 ballots with signatures that did not match voter files were counted without being reviewed, more than eight times the number the county acknowledged.
  • 50,000 Arizona ballots called into question — An extensive audit ordered by Arizona’s Senate officially called into question more than 50,000 ballots cast in the 2020 election — a total nearly five times Joe Biden’s official margin of victory in the state.
  • Foreign voters found on Texas rolls — An audit of Texas voter rolls identified nearly 12,000 noncitizens suspected of illegally registering to vote and nearly 600 cases in which ballots may have been cast in the name of a dead resident or by a voter who may have also voted in another state. Officials are now in the process of removing the foreign voters and deciding whether prosecutions are warranted.

  Read the rest of the claims here…

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 09/10/2022 – 18:00

• Man Claiming To Be Prince Of Ghana Standing Trial Over $800,000 Fraud Scheme
  Man Claiming To Be Prince Of Ghana Standing Trial Over $800,000 Fraud Scheme

  Authored by Janice Hisle via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  The man known as “Daryl Attipoe” displayed all the apparent hallmarks of success, power, and wealth. He wore nice clothes, exuded charisma, and drove two high-end cars: a sporty red Dodge Viper and a sleek black Mercedes-Benz.

  

  He boasted of exotic business ventures, such as mining for chrome and diamonds. He asserted that he was a member of the royal family in the West African nation of Ghana.

  In addition, authorities said he became a “cult-like” spiritual leader—one who inspired women to bow at his feet and to follow his ministry cross-country, from Ohio to Colorado.

  But he was nothing but a fraudster, prosecutors say.

  Paper and money trails led investigators to the true identity of “Prince Daryl Attipoe,” also known as “Prophet Daryl Attipoe:” Daryl Robert Harrison. He is a convicted felon who, according to authorities, had “no identifiable legitimate income” and acted as a classic “conman” in a bizarre investment scheme.

  

  The 44-year-old is standing trial in U.S. District Court, Dayton, Ohio, for allegedly bilking a dozen people out of more than $800,000. The investors were young and old and came from varied professions, including dentistry, accounting, and personal training.

  Harrison “fraudulently diverted” the investors’ money for his personal use, court records say.

  He and his stepfather used the funds to buy luxury vehicles, airplane tickets, hotel accommodations, trips to Africa, rental cars, and monthly rent payments exceeding $3,000 for Daryl Harrison’s 5,100-square-foot home in Parker, Colo., officials said. He, his wife, and six children lived there.

  But the younger Harrison’s lawyer, Christopher Deal, told jurors: “These investments are legit.”

  A series of “unforeseen setbacks,” including the coronavirus pandemic, prevented Harrison from making good on his business promises, Deal said, adding that his client can rightfully call himself “prince” because a royal Ghanian family befriended and then “adopted” him.

  ‘Borderline Buffoonish’ Contracts

  Harrison, who was indicted almost two years ago, is standing trial on 16 charges: conspiracy to engage in mail fraud and wire fraud, three counts of mail fraud, nine counts of wire fraud, and three counts of witness tampering. Harrison’s stepfather, Robert S. Harrison Jr., faces just one conspiracy count; his trial is set for Dec. 5 before Judge Michael J. Newman, the same judge who is presiding over the younger Harrison’s trial.

  As Harrison’s trial launched Sept. 6, assistant U.S. Attorney Dwight Keller told jurors that he intended to present testimony from 17 witnesses, including 12 people who say he financially victimized them.

  Harrison swooped in on them at supermarkets, fitness centers, religious gatherings, and “even a car wash,” Keller said.

  He targeted people who were “vulnerable” in some way—inexperienced, greedy, or “flat-out gullible,” Keller said. “Through fast talking and slick salesmanship, they were hoodwinked into investing with him.”

  Numerous documents and 23 so-called “contracts,” mostly written in Harrison’s own handwriting, support the allegations, Keller said. The contracts were written in a manner that was unsophisticated, “sophomoric” and “borderline buffoonish,” Keller said.

  Harrison promised investors that they could expect outrageously high rates of return, ranging from 28 percent to 33 percent a year, Keller said. Harrison also assured that the investors’ money would remain safe, secure, and accessible to them.

  But when investors asked questions, demanded account statements, or sought refunds, Harrison typically made himself scarce, Keller said.

  The alleged illegal activities date to 2014, after Harrison’s stepfather registered two businesses in Ohio: the nonprofit Power House of Prayer Ministries and a for-profit corporation called New Max Groups. From 2015-2020, Daryl Harrison solicited investors for New Max, sometimes instructing them to make checks payable to the ministry, court records say.

  

  One such investor was Peggy Braun, 58. Braun, who wears eyeglasses and has short salt-and-pepper hair, walked slowly to the witness stand, where she spent hours testifying on Sept. 6–7. Braun described her dealings with Harrison, whom she knew as “Daryl Attipoe.”

  Braun met Harrison in late 2015 or early 2016 because he repeatedly came through her cashier’s checkout lane at the Kroger grocery store in Maineville, Ohio. “He would follow me around,” she said. The two would occasionally chat; they learned a few things about each other’s lives.

  Braun said she is driven to help children. She never became a mother, but she raised a relative’s two children as her own and started college funds for them. She also has made monetary contributions to the March of Dimes and St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital.

  Life Savings Mostly Gone

  The man she now knows as Harrison urged her: “Invest with me. I’ll make you lots of money.” She dreamed of increasing her contributions to the children’s college funds and charities even more.

  Braun said she believed that Harrison indeed was a prince because of the way he behaved, the fancy cars he drove, and the things he told her about lucrative investment opportunities.

  “At first, I was leery about it,” Braun said. But Harrison seemed to have a way to counter all of her concerns. “I said, ‘This better not be fraud.’” His response, she says: “Don’t be silly. This is not fraud.”

  According to Braun’s testimony, she initially offered to invest $50,000—an amount that made Harrison scoff. He needed $400,000 from her, she said.

  After persuading Braun to sign an agreement committing to that amount, Harrison issued a “certificate of ownership,” with a fancy border and handwritten entries listing Braun’s name, dated Nov. 7, 2017, and “K4 Roland Shaft,” purportedly referring to a chrome mine location.

  Another document sets the value of the mine at $650 million. That investment was supposed to start generating $25,000 a month for Braun; Harrison promised she would be repaid her $400,000 within two years, she said.

  “I thought he was a prince. Otherwise, I would not have done this,” she said. Braun said it felt “surreal” that “a prince came to me, trying to help me out.”

  Besides working at Kroger, Braun also worked in an office job for a local factory that went out of business last year; she held both jobs for 21 years. Braun worked hard for all the money and assets she accrued during that time.

  After she and Harrison became acquainted, they would meet at a Chinese restaurant near the Kroger store; Braun would come there after finishing her first job for the day, as she prepared to report for duty at Kroger.

  At the restaurant, Harrison would have Braun sign various agreements. They would discuss business deals, including the chrome mine, a diamond mine, and real estate investments. Harrison also repeatedly called and texted Braun to persuade her to contribute more money.

  Royally Cheated

  At one point in 2019, Harrison got Braun to sign a contract for $100,000 for a diamond mine, which was supposed to generate $10,000 a month for her. On that paper, Braun said she crossed out wording that would have given Harrison the power to manage her remaining stocks and assets.

  “He wanted everything that I had,” she said, including the college funds she had set aside for her young relatives. “He wanted the deed on my house; he wanted everything.”

  Even though her suspicions were growing as time passed and cash wasn’t flowing her way, Braun ended up giving Harrison a total of $553,500.

  “I gave him most of my life savings because I thought I was going to make beaucoup money … and I wanted to help kids,” Braun testified, her voice cracking. “Kids are my life.”

  Braun had liquidated her Kroger stock, cashed in accounts she held with a nationally recognized investment firm, and took funds out of her 401-K retirement account. Harrison promised to pay extra taxes she incurred; that didn’t happen as agreed, Braun said.

  “He got the benefit. I got nothin,’” she said. She got $27,000 back from Harrison.

  Braun said she felt misled, cheated and defrauded. During 2020, she needed help paying taxes, and tried to get back some of her funds for that purpose. Harrison sent her two money orders, one for $1,000; the other for $2,000.

  But he complained to her about the cost of overnight delivery. “You’re a billionaire, millionaire, whatever you want to say, and you’re complaining about a UPS charge?” she said.

  During Braun’s testimony, prosecutors played recorded telephone conversations from May 2020. Harrison can be heard discouraging Braun from contacting a U.S. Secret Service agent who had left a business card at her home.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 09/10/2022 – 17:30

• Navy Denies FOIA Request To Publish Secret UFO Videos, Due To "National Security'" Risk
  Navy Denies FOIA Request To Publish Secret UFO Videos, Due To “National Security'” Risk

  The US Navy published three videos revealing unidentified flying objects (UFOs) — or unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP) — in 2020. Those stunning videos shot by Navy pilots showed high-tech aircraft maneuvering at incredible speeds that would make supersonic fifth-generation fighters look slow. The service squashed any hope for additional releases of UAP videos because it would “harm national security.” 

  

  In response to a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request filed by the government transparency site The Black Vault, the Navy denied the further release of UAP videos. 

  “The release of this information will harm national security as it may provide adversaries valuable information regarding Department of Defense/Navy operations, vulnerabilities, and/or capabilities.

  “While three UAP videos were released in the past, the facts specific to those three videos are unique in that those videos were initially released via unofficial channels before official release … those events were discussed extensively in the public domain; in fact, major news outlets conducted specials on these events. Given the amount of information in the public domain regarding these encounters, it was possible to release the files without further damage to national security,” Gregory Cason, deputy director of the Navy’s FOIA office, wrote in a response letter.

  It appears the Navy made no attempts to conceal the existence of other UAP videos. Hence the FOIA request denial. 

  In May, the Department of Defense (DoD) held the first hearing on UAPs since the 1960s. The hearing discussed the government’s database of at least 144 UAP sightings since 2004. 

  So it appears the US government doesn’t want potential adversaries to know precisely what their Navy pilots have seen or understand, and for science fiction fans and simple human curiosity about UAPs, well, the official release of additional UAP videos appears over for now. What a total buzzkill. 

  Here’s a copy of The Black Vault’s FOIA denial from the Navy. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 09/10/2022 – 17:00

• Why Did US Torpedo The April Ukraine War Negotiated Settlement?
  Why Did US Torpedo The April Ukraine War Negotiated Settlement?

  Authored by Walt Zlotow via AntiWar.com,

  Most Americans are unaware how close Russia and Ukraine came to ending the current war in April.

  Last March 27, Ukraine president Zelensky told his people “Our goal is obvious – peace and the restoration of normal life in our native state as soon as possible.”

  He was hinting at what went unsaid: Ukraine and Russia, brokered by NATO member Turkey, reached a tentative fifteen-point peace plan to end the month old war.

  Key points were Russia withdraw from all Ukraine except for breakaway Donbas and Crimea. Ukraine would pass on future NATO membership, pledging neutrality between Russia and NATO. Donbas and Crimea would undergo political transition based on self-determination to be recognized by both combatants. Ukraine security would be guaranteed by neighboring countries but no foreign troops would enter Ukraine.

  What’s amazing about this Fiona Hill piece is that it opens saying Putin’s invasion was not about NATO expansion at all and buried in it is that Russia agreed to a tentative deal that would have stopped the war if Ukraine agreed not to seek NATO membershiphttps://t.co/q679798Cqk https://t.co/UtkXSDrRkN pic.twitter.com/jwm0tCDsS0

  — Dave DeCamp (@DecampDave) August 31, 2022

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  What’s not to like?

  For the US weapons makers, the end to a weapons manufacturing boondoggle. That $60 billion in free weaponry to Ukraine fighters has depleted our ammo dumps.

  For the US military, the end to a new perpetual war, albeit a proxy one, to relieve the boredom of peace.

  For the political class, the end to the new Cold War with Russia to weaken, marginalize, and keep them from economic integration with Europe.

  Meanwhile…

  Fresh off his appearance at Wall Street, where he pitched corporations on the plunder of his country’s assets, Zelensky will appear at a conference of arms makers in Texas to present his country’s war as a fantastic business opportunity. #SlavaRaytheon https://t.co/zSNTT6Kcp3

  — Max Blumenthal (@MaxBlumenthal) September 9, 2022

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  So on April 9, Uncle Sam sent Boris Johnson, the latest version of America’s British Prime Minister poodle, to Kiev, to school Zelensky on who’s running the war. The UK, Johnson advised “was in it for the long run,” would not be party to any Ukraine, Russian agreement since the “collective West” saw a chance to “press” Russia and make the most of it. Johnson cannot be accused of subtlety.

  Two weeks later, the US sent Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to Kyiv to reinforce Johnson’s warning and make clear the US and NATO were determined to use the war to “weaken” Russia. NATO ally Turkey has blamed the US and UK for sabotaging a promising chance to end the war early on.

  

  When it comes to provoking, preventing and prolonging senseless war, America always fails the test of peace. Getting back to the question posed: Why did the US torpedo the April Ukraine war negotiated settlement?

  Because we can.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 09/10/2022 – 16:30

• Rates To 4% "Come Hell Or High Water" – Fed Has Credibility Crisis & Powell Knows It
  Rates To 4% “Come Hell Or High Water” – Fed Has Credibility Crisis & Powell Knows It

  Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

  …some interesting statements by former Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida and his ducking of questions on the Fed’s role in this mess.

  

  Image of Richard Clarida from video below

  Credibility Problem and Disconnect

  2/3

  This perfectly illustrates both the disconnect and huge credibility problem the Fed has.

  As the chart below shows, 4% is already priced in. This is not a bold “hell or high water call.” It should be a milktoast statement of the obvious. But it does not seem to be. pic.twitter.com/h16XwjvA4x

  — Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth (@biancoresearch) September 9, 2022

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  Richard Clarida on Squawk Box

  Q: Is the fed data dependent or are they going to 4% come hell or high water. 

  Clarida Response

  • I think they are going to 4% hell or high water if I had to out it into two boxes.

  • Inflation is way too high. Inflation was way too high last year. 

  • Until, inflation comes down, the Fed is really a single mandate central bank.

  • They are data dependent but the inflation data is too high. So I think they are going to at least 4%. 

  • I agree it’s not a great place to be in. If it was just Putin, you are right. But unfortunately the economy is out of balance now. 

  Clarida ducked hard questions on the Fed’s role in this mess while admitting he got the inflation picture wrong.

  Clarida also supported fiscal stimulus, the last round of which was the big problem. 

  No one at the Fed saw this coming and they ridiculously kept QE going all the way to March of 2022.

  So yes, the Fed has an enormous credibility problem and Powell understands that. 

  As a direct consequence, the Fed is highly likely to make a mistake in the opposite direction. 

  Meanwhile, the big spotlight appears to be on jobs and the unemployment rate. 

  Strong Job Gains? Don’t Count On It!

  

   It’s Increasingly Likely That Alleged Job Strength is a Mirage of Part Time Second Jobs

  If Unemployment Levels Remain Low, How Far Can the Stock Market Decline?

  Here’s the question of the day: If Unemployment Levels Remain Low, How Far Can the Stock Market Decline?

  The answer isn’t pretty given The Fed is Openly Cheering the Stock Market Plunge Following Jackson Hole

  *  *  *

  Please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 09/10/2022 – 15:30

• The "Scariest Paper Of 2022" Reveals The Terrifying Fate Of Biden's Economy: Millions Are About To Lose Their Job
  The “Scariest Paper Of 2022” Reveals The Terrifying Fate Of Biden’s Economy: Millions Are About To Lose Their Job

  For much of the past year (and certainly at the time, more than a year ago, when the so-called experts, central bankers and macrotourists were still yapping about “transitory inflation” and other things they were wrong about and do not understand), we were warning that at some point the Fed will realize that it is simply impossible to contain supply-driven inflation through stubborn rate hikes which instead would lead to a dire alternative – millions in mass layoffs and newly unemployed workers …

  3 mass layoff announcements in the past 3 hours, meanwhile 12 hikes priced in through February. pic.twitter.com/7Q4wfP9J79

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 14, 2022

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  … and will revise its 2% inflation target higher, a move which will send every risk asset – from high-beta trash and meme stonks, to blue-chip icons, to bitcoin and cryptos limit up.

  To remind readers of this coming phase shift, we most recently warned in June that “at some point Fed will concede it has no control over supply. That’s when we will start getting leaks of raising the inflation target“…

  At some point Fed will concede it has no control over supply. That’s when we will start getting leaks of raising the inflation target

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 21, 2022

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  Well, it turns out that we were right, and not just about the coming mass layoffs, but also about the inflation target leaks. But first, lets back up a bit.

  A little over one year after nobody expected the Fed would be hiking rates like a drunken sailor until some time in late 2023 or 2024, it has now become fashionable to not only predict that the Fed will keep hiking rates at every FOMC meeting and at the fastest pace since the near-hyperinflation of the 1980s, but that the central bank will somehow manage to avoid a hard landing (i.e., the hiking cycle won’t end in a recession or depression), even though every single Fed tightening cycle since 1913 has ended in disaster.

  

  An example of this was the statement by former Fed vice chair (and PIMCO’s “twice-revolving door”) Rich Clarida, who told CNBC that “failure is not an option for Jay Powell,” adding that “I think they’re going to 4% hell or high water. Until inflation comes down a lot, the Fed is really a single mandate central bank.”

  “Failure is not an option for Jay Powell,” says Former Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida. “I think they’re going to 4% hell or high water. Until #inflation comes down a lot, the Fed is really a single mandate central bank.” pic.twitter.com/4hfLCVWZDP

  — Squawk Box (@SquawkCNBC) September 9, 2022

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  Of course, if one could hike rates in a vacuum that could work – after all, Clarida himself, who admits he got this year’s soaring inflation dead wrong when he was still a daytrading god and part oft he Fed in 2021, said that the Fed may as well have just one mandate, namely to tame inflation. But what so few seem to recall is that the Fed is “hiking to spark a recession“, or as CNBC’s Steve Liesman put it, there is no such thing as “immaculate rate hikes” meaning that rate hikes have dire tradeoffs in other sectors of the economy. In other words, if the Fed’s intention is to spark a recession, it will spark a recession… leading to millions of Americans losing their jobs, something which even Elizabeth Warren appears to have grasped.

  SENATOR WARREN SAYS SHE IS VERY WORRIED THAT FED IS GOING TO TIP ECONOMY INTO RECESSION

  Looks like someone didn’t read Chairman Doom’s speech https://t.co/wQALP1aA3Y

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 28, 2022

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  Yet due to the recency bias of Biden’s trillions in stimmies, and a world where workers – whether working form home or the office – have virtually all the leverage, few today can conceive of a world where inflation is zero or negative and is instead replaced with millions in unemployed workers, an outcome which one could (or rather should) say is even worse for the ruling democrats than roaring inflation. At least, with runaway prices, most people have a job and their wages are rising (at least nominally, if not in real terms).

  However, the higher rates rise, the closer we get to that inevitable moment when the BLS – unable to kick the can any longer – admits what has been obvious to so many for months: the US is facing a labor crisis of epic proportions with millions and millions of mass layoffs. And for those to whom it is not yet obvious, we urge to read a WSJ op-ed published by none other than Jason Furman, who is not some crackpot republican but Obama’s own top Economic Adviser from 2013-2017 and currently economic policy professor at Harvard.

  In “Inflation and the Scariest Economics Paper of 2022“, Furman summarizes a paper written by Johns Hopkins macroeconomist Larry Ball with co-authors Daniel Leigh and Prachi Mishra of the International Monetary Fund released by the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, whose conclusion is as follows: “To bring price increases down to 2%, we may need to tolerate unemployment of 6.5% for two years.“

  In other words, just as we said, inflation – much of which is supply-driven, which the Fed can do nothing about – will force the Fed to crush the economy by keeping rates for much longer, the result of which will be many millions in unemployed workers, or as Furman puts it, the paper “shows why the Federal Reserve will likely need to maintain its war on inflation, even if unemployment continues to rise.”

  What is more remarkable about Furman’s read of the economist paper is that in addition to its primary theme (the lack of labor slack, or labor tightness, is responsible for some 3.4% of underlying inflation in July 2022), the paper admits precisely what we have been saying all along – that the Fed can’t control supply-side variables:

  The paper also argues, convincingly in my view, for a different measure of underlying inflation. Fluctuations in energy and food prices are generally due to factors outside the control of macroeconomic policy makers. Geopolitics and weather have elevated the inflation rate in recent years. Plunging gasoline prices are temporarily lowering the inflation rate now. That’s why economists since the 1970s have focused on “core” inflation, which excludes food and energy.

  But food and energy aren’t the only things people buy that are subject to supply-side volatility. Prices of new and used cars, for example, have gyrated over the past two years for reasons that are mostly unrelated to the strength of the overall economy. Both regular and core inflation are based on taking averages of price increases and can be distorted by large changes in outlier categories. The median inflation rate calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland drops outliers to remove these distortions.

  According to Furman, median inflation – which is a statistically better measure of the underlying inflation that policy makers can actually control – is well above the Fed’s preferred headline inflation print (which fell to zero in July on a sequential basis and has stabilize) and shows no sign of moderating and has run at a 6.6% annual rate in the last three months.

  But the “scariest” part of the new paper, Furman reveals, is when the authors use their model to forecast the unemployment rate that would be needed to bring inflation down to the Fed’s 2% target. He explains why this is so scary:

  The authors present a range of scenarios, so I ran their model using my own assumptions…  Under these assumptions, which are more optimistic than the authors’ midpoint scenario, if the unemployment rate follows the Federal Open Market Committee’s median economic projection from June that the unemployment will rise to only 4.1%, then the inflation rate will still be about 4% at the end of 2025. To get the inflation rate to the Fed’s target of 2% by then would require an average unemployment rate of about 6.5% in 2023 and 2024.

  Under these scenarios if the unemployment rate rises to 4.1% then inflation will stay above 3%. If it rises to 7.5% then inflation will slightly undershot the Fed’s target.

  The unemployment rate needed to hit the Fed’s target in this scenario is 6.4%. pic.twitter.com/ysUDUU6yaG

  — Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) September 8, 2022

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  Where is unemployment now: it’s 3.7% (6.014 million unemployed workers vs 164.746 million civilian labor force). This matters, because according to one of the most erudite economist Democrats, by the end of the Biden admin in 2024, the unemployment will have to soar to 6.5% for inflation to plunge to the Fed’s historical target of 2.0%

  

  What does this mean in absolute numbers? Assuming a modest increase in the US labor force, a 6.5% unemployment rate in 2024 would translate into no less than 10.8 million unemployed workers, an 80% increase from the 6 million today!

  

  Still think that politicians – and especially Democrats – will sit quietly and blindly ignore how high the Fed is hiking rates if it means that to normalize inflation back to 2% it means nearly doubling the number of unemployed Americans (and a crushing recession to boot). Spoiler alert: no, they won’t, and this may be one of the very rare occasions when Elizabeth Warren is actually right to worry about what the coming mass layoff wave means for Democrats… and the 2024 presidential election.

  So what should the Fed do? Well, according to Furman, the Fed has four options:

  1. First, place more emphasis on the ratio of job openings to unemployment and median inflation as it assesses the tightness of labor markets and the underlying rate of inflation.
  2. Second, the new paper shows how much easier it will be to tackle inflation if expectations remain under control. The Fed should follow up on Chairman Jerome Powell’s tough talk at Jackson Hole with meaningful action such as a 75-basis-point increase at the next meeting.
  3. Third, be prepared to accept the unemployment rate rising above 5% if inflation is still out of control.

  While we doubt #3 is actionable, what is more remarkable is Furman’s final proposal: it’s the one that, like the Dude’s proverbial rug, ties the room together and sets the stage for what is coming:

  Finally, stabilizing at a 3% inflation rate is probably healthier for the economy than stabilizing at 2%—so while fighting inflation should be the central bank’s only focus today, at some point the Fed should reassess the meaning of victory in that struggle.

  And just in case his WSJ proves too complicated for some mainstream experts and economists, here it is in truncated, twitter format:

  (iii) Seriously consider raising the inflation target to something like 3 percent

  This one is tricky. On a blank slate a 3% target would be better than a 2% target. But shifting to that could deanchor expectations.

  — Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) September 8, 2022

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  And there you have it: remember what we said on June 21: “At some point Fed will concede it has no control over supply. That’s when we will start getting leaks of raising the inflation target.” Well… there it is.

  And while mainstream economists and the market may require quite a few months to grasp what is coming, it is the only way out of a crisis of commodities – as Zoltan has repeatedly and correctly put it – and which central banks have no control over, and thus will have to move not only the goalposts but the entire football field to avoid a social revolt or something even scarier.

  While we wait, we can’t help but snicker at what the 79-year-old figurehead in the White House tweeted today…

  My first two years in office spurred the strongest economic recovery in recent history. Today, I’m releasing my Economic Blueprint, a look at how our wins are rebuilding an economy that works for working families.https://t.co/eSlr3ymdo8

  It’s long. So here are the big things:

  — President Biden (@POTUS) September 9, 2022

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  … because what Biden calls “the strongest economic recovery in recent history” is – even according to Democrats – about to be the biggest economic disaster in modern history.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 09/10/2022 – 15:11

• EV Market Revenue Set To Hit $384 Billion In 2022
  EV Market Revenue Set To Hit $384 Billion In 2022

  The global sales of electric vehicles are expected to hit $384 billion in 2022, according to data from Statista’s Mobility Market Outlook.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  As Statista’s Anna Fleck details below, battery EVs and plug-in hybrid EVs have both seen growing popularity in recent years, with projections estimating that they will reach a shared market volume of $869 billion by 2027.

  According to analysts from the Mobility Market Outlook:

  “It is safe to say that battery-powered vehicles are taking over the automobile market. The growth of the Electric Vehicles (EV) market has been significant despite the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting supply chain bottlenecks. Despite these recent challenges and rising production costs as a result of increasing raw material prices, EV sales are still going up at a fast rate. If this continues, they are set to surpass the sales of conventionally propelled vehicles (i.e., vehicles with internal combustion engines).”

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 09/10/2022 – 15:00

• Idaho LGBT Pride Event Drops Children's Drag Show On 9/11 Anniversary After Sponsors Pull Funding
  Idaho LGBT Pride Event Drops Children’s Drag Show On 9/11 Anniversary After Sponsors Pull Funding

  Via Remix News,

  After multiple sponsors dropped financial support for an LGBT Pride festival in Boise, Idaho – which would have featured children performing in drag on the anniversary of 9/11 –  the organizers have now said that the child drag show has been cancelled.

  

  The Pride festival still features a 9/11 remembrance ceremony, which was originally supposed to be followed by a child drag queen dance event. The Drag Story Hour is still planned to go ahead. According to the schedule published on the website, attendees will be given 15 minutes to remember the thousands of lives lost on 9/11 after terrorists committed attacks on the World Trade Center buildings and the Pentagon. Immediately afterwards, drag story time will begin, which usually features a man dressed in women’s clothing reading to children. Shortly after, the children drag queen event, known as Drag Kids, was originally scheduled to begin.

  

  However, apparently the inclusion of children was too much for Zions Bank, which dropped funding for the event.

  After Zions Bank dropped its support, Idaho Power and the Department of Health and Welfare (DHW) also dropped out on Thursday.

  Both Zions Bank and DHW committed $18,000 to the event. The two-day festival has a total of 88 sponsors listed on its website.

  Festival organizers said the move to drop Drag Kids was a difficult decision.

  “While the vast majority of our sponsors and supporters have voiced their support for the Boise Pride Festival and the Drag Kids program, we have made the very difficult decision to postpone this performance due to increased safety concerns. The health and well-being of the kids, their parents, and the attendees of the Festival are our priority,” read a Pride press release.

  Zions Bank released a statement explaining its decision.

  “Over the years, Zions Bank has supported a variety of Pride events because they are an important part of our support for our LGBTQ employees and allies and are representative of our efforts to foster an inclusive, diverse and equitable workplace and community,” the statement reads.

  “This support for all of our employees and communities remains unchanged.”

  pic.twitter.com/IHBJxFT0wM

  — Zions Bank (@ZionsBank) September 7, 2022

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  The Boise Pride festival responded to Zions Bank, writing the organization is “saddened to learn this is how they have chosen to respond to clearly anti-LGBTQ+ rhetoric and actions.”

  Boise Pride’s response to the statement from Zions Bank about pulling their participation in this weekend’s Boise Pride Festival. #boisepride2022 #supportingoursuperhumans pic.twitter.com/Fm16eCHBIP

  — Boise Pride (@boisepride) September 7, 2022

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  The pro-LGBT event will last two days and take place in the State Capitol building and a nearby park. The controversial Drag Kids event was described as “a drag show like none other, the Drag Kids range from ages 11-18 and are ready to bring it all to the Boise Pride Festival Stage! Come and cheer them on as they bring drag to the younger generation!”

  The festival is also sponsored by some of the country’s top corporations, including Amazon, Well’s Fargo, Target, Jack Daniel’s, HP, AT&T, Macy’s, Proctor and Gamble, and Chase.

  The Idaho Republican Party responded to the drag show, with the party asking for residents to boycott the event. Republicans also released a statement with phone numbers of many of the major corporations and organizations involved with sponsoring the event. The statement urges concerned citizens to call and ask them to drop their support.

  The newly elected Idaho GOP Chairwoman Dorothy Moon issued a statement on Wednesday morning calling on “concerned Idahoans” to “disavow this attack on Idaho’s children and invest their sponsorship dollars” elsewhere.

  “To be clear, this is no sleight-of-hand or political wordsmithing: Idaho’s Democrat party believes it is not only okay but laudable to encourage children to engage in public displays of sexuality,” Moon wrote in the email statement. “For those who have been following the radicalization of the Democrat party, this should come as no surprise.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 09/10/2022 – 14:30

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• An Asian Bretton Woods?
  An Asian Bretton Woods?

  Authored by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,

  The financial war between Russia with China’s tacit backing on one side, and America and her NATO allies on the other has escalated rapidly. It appears that President Putin was thinking several steps ahead when he launched Russia’s attack on Ukraine.

  We have seen sanctions fail.

  We have seen Russia achieve record export surpluses. We have seen the rouble become the strongest currency on the foreign exchanges. 

  We are seeing the west enter a new round of European monetary inflation to pay everyone’s energy bills. The euro, yen, and sterling are already collapsing — the dollar will be next. From Putin’s point of view, so far, so good.

  Russia has progressed her power over Asian nations, including populous India and Iran. She has persuaded Middle Eastern oil and gas producers that their future lies with Asian markets, and not Europe. She is subsidising Asia’s industrial revolution with discounted energy. Thanks to the west’s sanctions, Russia is on its way to confirming Halford Mackinder’s predictions made over a century ago, that Russia is the true geopolitical centre of the world.

  There is one piece in Putin’s jigsaw yet to be put in place: a new currency system to protect Russia and her allies from an approaching western monetary crisis.

  This article argues that under cover of the west’s geopolitical ineptitude, Putin is now assembling a new gold-backed multi-currency system by combining plans for a new Asian trade currency with his new Moscow World Standard for gold.

  

  Currency developments under the radar

  Unreported by western media, there are some interesting developments taking place in Asia over the future of currencies. Earlier this summer, it emerged that Sergei Glazyev, a senior Russian economist and Minister in charge of the Eurasian Economic Commission (EAEU), was leading a committee planning a new trade currency for the Eurasian Economic Union.

  As put forward in Russian and EAEU media, the new currency is to be comprised of a mixture of national currencies and commodities. A weighting of some sort was suggested to reflect the relative importance of the currencies and commodities traded between them. At the same time, the new trade settlement currency was to be available to any other nation in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the expanding BRICS membership. The ambition is for it to become an Asia-wide replacement for the dollar. 

  More specifically, the purpose is to do away with the dollar for trade settlements on cross-border transactions between participants. It is worth noting that any dollar transaction is reflected in US banks through the correspondent banking system, potentially giving the US authorities undesirable economic intelligence, and information on sanction-busting and other activities deemed illegal or undesirable by the US authorities. Furthermore, any transaction involving US dollars becomes a matter for the US legal system, giving US politicians the authority to intervene wherever the dollar is used.

  As well as removing these disadvantages, through the inclusion of a basket of commodities there appears to be an acceptance that the new trade currency must be more stable in terms of its commodity purchasing power than exists with that of the dollar. But we can immediately detect flaws in the outline proposal. The mooted inclusion of national currencies in the basket is not only an unnecessary complication, but any nation joining it would presumably trigger a wholesale rebalancing of the currency’s composition.

  Including national currencies is a preposterous suggestion, as is any suggestion that the commodity element should be weighted by trade volumes transacted between participating states. Instead, an unweighted average of energy, precious metals, and base metals makes more sense, but even that does not go far enough. The reasons are illustrated by the two charts in Figure 1. 

  

  The upper chart shows baskets of different categories of commodities indexed and priced in dollars. Between them, they represent a wide range of commodities and raw materials. These baskets are considerably less volatile than their individual components. For example, since April 2020 oil has risen from a distorted minus figure to a high of $130, whereas the energy basket has risen only 6.3 times, because other components have not risen nearly as much as crude oil and some components might be rising while others might be falling. Agriculture raw materials are comprised of cotton, timber, wool, rubber, and hides, not raw materials liable to undesirable seasonality. But the average of the four categories is considerably more stable than its components (the black line).

  We are moving towards price stability. However, all commodities are priced in US dollars, which being undesirable, cannot be avoided. Pricing in gold, which is legal money, eventually resolves this problem because it can be fixed against participating currencies. The result of pricing the commodity categories in gold and the average of them is shown in the lower chart.

  Since 1992, the average (the black line) has varied between 0.37 and 1.66, and is currently at 0.82, or 18% less than in January 1992. This is as stable as it gets, and even this low volatility would probably be less if the dollar wasn’t itself so volatile and the gold price manipulated by nay-saying western authorities. To further illustrate these points, Figure 2 shows the dollar’s volatility in terms of crude oil.

  

  Before the abandonment of Bretton Woods in 1971, the price of oil hardly changed. Since then, measured by gold the dollar has lost 98% of its purchasing power. Furthermore, the chart shows that it is the dollar which is extremely volatile and not oil, because the price of oil in gold is relatively constant (down only 20% from 1950), while in dollars it is up 33.6 times with some wild price swings along the way. Critics of measuring prices in gold ignore the fact that legal money is gold and not paper currencies or bank credit: attempts by governments and their epigones to persuade us otherwise are propaganda only. 

  Therefore, Glazyev should drop currencies from the proposed basket entirely and strive to either price a basket of non-seasonal commodities in gold, or alternatively simply reference the new currency to gold in a daily fix. And as the charts above confirm, there is little point in using a basket of commodities priced in dollars or gold when it is far simpler for the EAEU nations and for anyone else wishing to participate in the new trade currency to use a trade currency directly tied to the gold price. It would amount to a new Asian version of a Bretton Woods arrangement and would need no further adjustment.

  Attributing them to excessive credit, from recent statements by President Putin it is clear he has a better understanding of currencies and the west’s inflationary problems than western economists. Intellectually, he has long demonstrated an appreciation of the relationship between money, that is only gold, and currency and credit. His knowledge was further demonstrated by his insistence that the “unfriendlies” pay for energy in roubles, taking control of the media of energy exchange into Russia’s own hands and away from those of his enemies.

  In short, Putin appears to understand that gold is money and that the rest is unreliable, weaponizable, credit. So, why does he not just command a new trade currency to be created, backed by gold?

  Enter the new Moscow gold standard

  Logic suggests that a gold-backed currency will be the outcome of Glazyev’s EAEU committee’s trade currency deliberations after all, because of a subsequent announcement from Moscow concerning a new Russian bullion market. 

  In accordance with western sanctions, the London Bullion Market refused to accept Russian mined and processed gold. It was then natural for Russia to propose a new gold market based in Moscow with its own standards. It is equally sensible for Moscow to set up a price fixing committee, replicating that of the LBMA. But instead of it being the basis for a far larger unallocated gold deposit account offering by Russian and other banks, it will be a predominantly physical market. 

  Based in Moscow, with a new market called the Moscow International Precious Metals Exchange, the Moscow Gold Standard will incorporate some of the LBMA’s features, such as good delivery lists with daily, or twice daily fixings. The new exchange is therefore being promoted as a logical replacement for the LBMA.

  But could that be a cover, with the real objective being to provide a gold link to the new trade currency planned by Glazyev’s EAEU committee? Timing suggests that this may indeed be the case, but we will only know for sure as events unfold.

  If it is to be backed by gold, the considerations behind setting up a new trade currency are fairly straightforward. There is the Chinese one kilo bar four-nines standard, which is widely owned, has already been adopted throughout Asia, and is traded even on Comex. Given that China is Russia’s long-term partner, that is likely to be the standard unit. The adoption of the Chinese standard in the new Moscow exchange is logical, simplifying the relationship with the Shanghai Gold Exchange, and streamlining fungibility between contracts, arbitrage, and delivery.

  Geopolitics suggest that the simple proposition behind the establishment of a new Moscow exchange will fit in with a larger trans-Asia plan and is unlikely to move at the glacial pace of developments between Russia and China to which we have become accustomed. The gold question has become bound up in more rapid developments triggered by Russia’s belligerence over Ukraine, and the sanctions which quickly followed.

  There can be little doubt that this must be leading to a seismic shift in gold policy for the Russian Chinese partnership. The Chinese in particular have demonstrated an unhurried patience that befits a nation with a sense of its long history and destiny. Putin is more of a one-man act. Approaching seventy years old, he cannot afford to be so patient and is showing a determination to secure a legacy in his lifetime as a great Russian leader. While China has made the initial running with respect to gold policy, Putin is now pushing the agenda more forcefully.

  Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the strategy was to let the west make all the geopolitical and financial mistakes. For Putin perhaps, the lesson of history was informed by Napoleon’s march to the gates of Moscow, his pyrrhic victory at Borodino, and his defeat by the Russian winter. Hitler made the same mistake with Operation Barbarossa. From Putin’s viewpoint, the lesson was clear — Russia’s enemies defeat themselves. It was repeated in Afghanistan, where the American-led NATO enemy was conquered by its own hubris without Putin having to lift so much as a finger. That is why Russia is Mackinder’s Pivot Area of the World Island. It cannot be attacked by navies, and supply line requirements for armies make Russia’s defeat well-nigh impossible

  Following the Ukraine invasion, Putin’s financial strategy has become more aggressive, and is potentially at odds with China’s economic policy. Being cut off from western markets, Putin is now proactive, while China which exports goods to them probably remains more cautious. But China knows that western capitalism bears the seeds of its own destruction, which would mean the end of the dollar and the other major fiat currencies. An economic policy based on exports to capitalistic nations would be a passing phase. 

  China’s gold policy was aways an insurance policy against a dollar collapse, realising that she must not be blamed for the west’s financial destruction by announcing a gold standard for the yen in advance of it. It would be a nuclear equivalent in a financial war, only an action to be taken as a last resort.

  Developments in Russia have changed that. It is clear to the Russians, and most likely the Chinese, that credit inflation is now pushing the dollar into a currency crisis in the next year or two. Preparations to protect the rouble and the yuan from the final collapse of the dollar, long taught in Marxist universities as inevitable, must assume a new urgency. It would be logical to start with a new trade settlement currency as a testbed for national currencies in Asia, and for it to be set up in such a way that it would permit member states to adopt gold standards for their own currencies as well.

  Possession of bullion is key

  The move away from western fiat currencies to gold backed Asian currencies requires significant gold bullion ownership at the least. The only members, associates, and dialog partners of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the EAEU whose central banks have not increased their gold reserves since the Lehman failure when the credit expansion of dollars began in earnest, are minor states. Since then, between them they have added 4,645 tonnes to their reserves, while all the other central banks account for only 781 tonnes of additional gold reserves.

  But central bank reserves are only part of the story, with nations running other, often secret national bullion accounts not included in reserves. The appendix to this article shows why and how China almost certainly accumulated an undeclared quantity of bullion, likely to be in the region of 25,000 tonnes by 2002 and probably more since. 

  Since 2002, when the Shanghai Gold Exchange opened and China’s citizens were permitted for the first time to own gold, gold delivered into public hands has totalled a further amount of over 20,000 tonnes. While the bulk of this is jewellery and some has been returned to the SGE as scrap for re-refining, it is clear that the authorities have encouraged Chinese citizens to retain gold for themselves, which traditionally has been real money in China.

  According to Simon Hunt of Simon Hunt Strategic Services, as well as declared reserves of 2,301 tonnes Russia also holds gold bullion in its Gosfund (the State Fund of Russia) bringing its holdings up to 12,000 tonnes. This is significantly greater than the 8,133 tonnes declared by the US Treasury, over which there are widespread doubts concerning the veracity of its true quantity.

  Obviously, the Asian partnership has a very different view of gold from the American hegemon. Furthermore, in recent months evidence has confirmed what gold bugs have claimed all along, that the Bank for International Settlements and major bullion operators such as JPMorgan Chase have indulged in a price suppression scheme to discourage gold ownership and to divert bullion demand into synthetic unallocated accounts. 

  The secrecy that surrounds reporting of gold reserves to the IMF raises further suspicions over the true position. Furthermore, there are leases and swaps between central banks, the BIS, and bullion dealers that lead to double counting and bullion recorded as being in possession of governments and their central banks but being held by other parties.

  As long ago as 2002 when the gold price was about $300 per ounce, Frank Veneroso, who as a noted analyst spent considerable time and effort identifying central bank swaps and leases, concluded that anything between 10,000 and 15,000 tonnes of government and central bank gold reserves were out on lease or swapped — that is up to almost half the total official global gold reserves at that time. His entire speech is available on the Gold Antitrust Action Committee website, but this is the introduction to his reasoning:

  “Let’s begin with an explanation of gold banking and gold derivatives.

  “It is a simple, simple idea. Central banks have bars of gold in a vault. It’s their own vault, it’s the Bank of England’s vault, it’s the New York Fed’s vault. It costs them money for insurance – it costs them money for storage— and gold doesn’t pay any interest. They earn interest on their bills of sovereigns, like US Treasury Bills. They would like to have a return as well on their barren gold, so they take the bars out of the vault and they lend them to a bullion bank. Now the bullion bank owes the central bank gold—physical gold—and pays interest on this loan of perhaps 1%. What do these bullion bankers do with this gold? Does it sit in their vault and cost them storage and insurance? No, they are not going to pay 1% for a gold loan from a central bank and then have a negative spread of 2% because of additional insurance and storage costs on their physical gold. They are intermediaries—they are in the business of making money on financial intermediation. So they take the physical gold and they sell it spot and get cash for it. They put that cash on deposit or purchase a Treasury Bill. Now they have a financial asset—not a real asset—on the asset side of their balance sheet that pays them interest—6% against that 1% interest cost on the gold loan to the central bank. What happened to that physical gold? Well, that physical gold was Central Bank bars, and it went to a refinery and that refinery refined it, upgraded it, and poured it into different kinds of bars like kilo bars that go to jewellery factories who then make jewellery out of it. That jewellery gets sold to individuals. That’s where those physical bars have wound up—adorning the women of the world…

  “We have gotten, albeit crude, estimates of gold borrowings from the official sector from probably more than 1/3 of all the bullion banks. We went to bullion dealers, and we asked, “Are these guys major bullion bankers, medium bullion bankers, or small-scale bullion bankers?” We classified them accordingly and from that we have extrapolated a total amount of gold lending from our sample. That exercise has pointed to exactly the same conclusion as all of our other evidence and inference—i.e., something like 10,000 to 15,000 tonnes of borrowed gold.”

  Veneroso’s findings were stunning. But two decades later, we have no idea of the current position. The market has changed substantially since 2002, and today it is thought that swaps and leases are often by book entry, rather than physical delivery of bullion into markets. But the implications are clear: if Russia or China cared to declare their true position and made a move towards backing their currencies with gold or linking them to gold credibly, it would be catastrophic for the dollar and western fiat currencies generally. It would amount to a massive bear squeeze on the west’s longstanding gold versus fiat policy. And remember, gold is money, and the rest is credit, as John Pierpont Morgan said in 1912 in evidence to Congress. He was not stating his opinion, but a legal fact.

  In a financial crisis, the accumulated manipulation of bullion markets since the 1970s is at significant risk of becoming unwound. The imbalance in bullion holdings between the Russian Chinese camp and the west would generate the equivalent of a financial nuclear event. This is why it is so important to understand that instead of being a longstop insurance policy against the Marxist prediction of capitalism’s ultimate failure, it appears that the combination of planning for a new trade currency for Asian nations centred on members of the EAEU, coinciding with the introduction of a new Moscow-based bullion standard, is now pre-empting financial developments in the west. That being the case, a financial nuclear bomb is close to being triggered.

  *  *  *

  Appendix

  China’s gold policy.

  China actually took its first deliberate step towards eventual domination of the gold market as long ago as June 1983, when regulations on the control of gold and silver were passed by the State Council. The following Articles extracted from the English translation set out the objectives very clearly:

  Article 1. These Regulations are formulated to strengthen control over gold and silver, to guarantee the State’s gold and silver requirements for its economic development and to outlaw gold and silver smuggling and speculation and profiteering activities.

   Article 3. The State shall pursue a policy of unified control, monopoly purchase and distribution of gold and silver. The total income and expenditure of gold and silver of State organs, the armed forces, organizations, schools, State enterprises, institutions, and collective urban and rural economic organizations (hereinafter referred to as domestic units) shall be incorporated into the State plan for the receipt and expenditure of gold and silver.

  Article 4. The People’s Bank of China shall be the State organ responsible for the control of gold and silver in the People’s Republic of China.

  Article 5. All gold and silver held by domestic units, with the exception of raw materials, equipment, household utensils and mementos which the People’s Bank of China has permitted to be kept, must be sold to the People’s Bank of China. No gold and silver may be personally disposed of or kept without authorization.

  Article 6. All gold and silver legally gained by individuals shall come under the protection of the State.

  Article 8. All gold and silver purchases shall be transacted through the People’s Bank of China. No unit or individual shall purchase gold and silver unless authorised or entrusted to do so by the People’s Bank of China.

  Article 12. All gold and silver sold by individuals must be sold to the People’s Bank of China.

  Article 25. No restriction shall be imposed on the amount of gold and silver brought into the People’s Republic of China, but declaration and registration must be made to the Customs authorities of the People’s Republic of China upon entry.

  Article 26. Inspection and clearance by the People’s Republic of China Customs of gold and silver taken or retaken abroad shall be made in accordance with the amount shown on the certificate issued by the People’s Bank of China or the original declaration and registration form made on entry. All gold and silver without a covering certificate or in excess of the amount declared and registered upon entry shall not be allowed to be taken out of the country.

  These articles make it clear that only the People’s Bank was authorised to acquire or sell gold on behalf of the state, without limitation, and that citizens owning or buying gold were not permitted to do so and must sell any gold in their possession to the People’s Bank.

  Additionally, China has deliberately developed her gold mine production regardless of cost, becoming the largest producer by far in the world.[ii] State-owned refineries process this gold along with doré imported from elsewhere. Virtually none of this gold leaves China, so that the gold owned today between the state and individuals continues to accumulate.

  The regulations quoted above formalised the State’s monopoly over all gold and silver which is exercised through the Peoples Bank, and they allow the free importation of gold and silver but keep exports under very tight control. The intent behind the regulations is not to establish or permit the free trade of gold and silver, but to control these commodities in the interest of the state.

  This being the case, the growth of Chinese gold imports recorded as deliveries to the public since 2002, when the Shanghai Gold Exchange was established and the public then permitted to buy gold, is only the more recent evidence of a deliberate act of policy embarked upon thirty-nine years ago.  China had been accumulating gold for nineteen years before she allowed her own nationals to buy when private ownership was finally permitted. Furthermore, the bullion was freely available, because in seventeen of those years, gold was in a severe bear market fuelled by a combination of supply from central bank disposals, leasing, and increasing mine production, all of which I estimate totalled about 59,000 tonnes. The two largest buyers for all this gold for much of the time were private buyers in the Middle East and China’s government, with additional demand identified from India and Turkey. The breakdown from these sources and the likely demand are identified in the table below:

  

  In another context, the cost of China’s 25,000 tonnes of gold equates to roughly 10% of her exports over the period, and the eighties and early nineties in particular also saw huge capital inflows when multinational corporations were building factories in China. However, the figure for China’s gold accumulation is at best informed speculation. But given the determination of the state to acquire gold expressed in the 1983 regulations and by its subsequent actions, it is clear China had deliberately accumulated a significant undeclared stockpile by 2002. 

  So far, China’s long-term plans for the acquisition of gold appear to have achieved some important objectives. To date, additional deliveries to the public through the SGE now total over 20,000 tonnes.

  China’s motives

  China’s motives for taking control of the gold bullion market have almost certainly evolved. The regulations of 1983 make sense as part of a forward-looking plan to ensure that some of the benefits of industrialisation would be accumulated as a risk-free national asset. This reasoning is similar to that of the Arab nations capitalising on the oil-price bonanza only ten years earlier, which led them to accumulate their hoard, mainly held in private as opposed to government hands, for the benefit of future generations. However, as time passed the world has changed substantially both economically and politically.

  2002 was a significant year for China, when geopolitical considerations entered the picture. Not only did the People’s Bank establish the Shanghai Gold Exchange to facilitate deliveries to private investors, but this was the year the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation formally adopted its charter. This merger of security and economic interests with Russia has bound Russia and China together with a number of resource-rich Asian states into an economic bloc. When India, Iran, Mongolia, Afghanistan, and Pakistan join (as they now have or are already committed to do), the SCO will cover more than half the world’s population. And inevitably the SCO’s members are looking for an alternative trade settlement system to using the US dollar. 

  At some stage China with her SCO partner, Russia, might force the price of gold higher as part of their currency strategy. You can argue this from an economic point of view on the basis that possession of properly priced gold will give her a financial dominance over global trade at a time when we are trashing our fiat currencies, or more simply that there’s no point in owning an asset and suppressing its value for ever. From 2002 there evolved a geopolitical argument: both China and Russia having initially wanted to embrace American and Western European capitalism no longer sought to do so, seeing us as soft enemies instead. The Chinese public were then encouraged, even by public service advertising, to buy gold, helping to denude the west of her remaining bullion stocks and to provide market liquidity in China.

  What is truly amazing is that the western economic and political establishment have dismissed the importance of gold and ignored all the warning signals. They do not seem to realise the power they have given China and Russia to create financial chaos as a consequence of gold price suppression. If they do so, which seems to be only a matter of time, then London’s fractional reserve system of unallocated gold accounts would simply collapse, leaving Shanghai as the only major physical market. 

  This is probably the final link in China’s long-standing gold strategy, and through it a planned domination of the global economy in partnership with Russia and the other SCO nations. But as noted above, recent events have brought this outcome forward.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/09/2022 – 23:40

• DoD To Boost Ammunition Production After Ukraine War Depletes US Stockpiles
  DoD To Boost Ammunition Production After Ukraine War Depletes US Stockpiles

  The Pentagon needs to rapidly increase munitions purchases if they want to be prepared for a shooting war with Russia and/or China after depleting stockpiles due to large transfers to Ukraine. 

  Since the start of the war, the US has transferred 806,000 shells of 155mm howitzers and 108,000 shells for 105mm guns, according to the Defense Department figures. That’s nearly one million shells in six months, and the figure does not factor in missiles and other precision-guided rockets.

  As of June, Ukrainian forces fired about 6,000 shells per day at Russian forces. Artillery in warfare is very important, but there’s no way Ukraine can manufacture such shells at scale, so the US is quickly burning through its ammunition stockpile. 

  #Ukraine: Ukrainian artillerymen firing two US-supplied M982 Excalibur 155mm guided extended-range projectiles (made in 2011) from a M777A2 howitzer.
  We can also see the projectiles being programmed using the Enhanced Portable Inductive Artillery Fuze Setter (EPIAFS). pic.twitter.com/0sPXZ1nubI

  — 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) September 7, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  #Ukraine: One of the earliest visual confirmations of 🇺🇸 M982 Excalibur 155mm guided extended-range projectiles in use with the Ukrainian army – here we can see a Ukrainian M777A2 firing at least 3 of them recently.

  The projectiles can be IDed by the very distinctive case. pic.twitter.com/69x95zXduS

  — 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) September 3, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  US defense officials told WSJ that stockpiles of 155mm shells are “uncomfortably low” after months and months of arming Ukraine. 

  The Pentagon has been slow to replenish its arsenal and may jeopardize readiness for a broader conflict with top superpowers, such as Russia and China. 

  That’s why Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment William LaPlante revealed Friday that the US plans to increase the production capacity of 155mm ammunition from 14,000 to 36,000 shells per month over the next three years. 

  “Right now, the 155 [mm] munitions are [produced] at about 14,400 a month, and we have plans working with the contractor to get that in increments ultimately up to 36,000 a month by about three years. It’s going to be in steps,” LaPlante said during a press conference.

  The Army has requested lawmakers on Capitol Hill for an extra $500 million a year in upgrade efforts for ammunition plants, WSJ said, quoting defense officials. 

  Earlier this week, Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced another $2 billion in military weapons for Ukraine, putting the total dollar amount American taxpayers have shelled out for the war at approximately $15 billion under the Biden administration. 

  A looming ammunition shortage emerges as the Biden administration has become the military-industrial complex’s best ‘salesperson’ (to be politically correct). Biden’s weapon deals with Ukraine are so hot that the US is also “running low” on anti-tank missiles. 

  

  Congrats to Biden and the Democrats for empowering the military-industrial complex and arming one of the world’s most corrupt countries as billions of US taxpayers’ dollars slide into a black hole in Eastern Europe. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/09/2022 – 23:20

• Expert Warns US Descending Into 'Anarchy' Amid Heightened Distrust Of DOJ, Law Enforcement
  Expert Warns US Descending Into ‘Anarchy’ Amid Heightened Distrust Of DOJ, Law Enforcement

  Authored by John Ransom via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  A legal expert has warned that the country risks descending into “anarchy” amid escalating criticism of federal law enforcement bodies in the wake of the FBI raid at Mar-a-Lago.

  

  Facing heated allegations of bias, the Department of Justice (DOJ) on Aug. 30 banned political activity of all non-career, political appointees at agency.

  “We must do all we can to maintain public trust and ensure that politics—both in fact and appearance—does not compromise or affect the integrity of our work,” Garland wrote in a memo to DOJ employees announcing the ban against going to political events before the mid-term elections.

  The ban came as public distrust of federal law enforcement agencies have trended to low levels, with 53 percent of voters agreeing with a statement that the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) is “Joe Biden’s Gestapo,” according to a survey by pollster Rasmussen conducted on Aug. 15 and 16.

  The survey of 1,000 U.S. likely voters also showed that 44 percent of those polled now view the FBI less favorably after the agency conducted a raid on Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home and club last month over documents the government alleges Trump doesn’t have permission to hold.

  Overall, only 36 percent of likely voters disagree with the description of the FBI as a “Gestapo” that benefits President Joe Biden.

  The DOJ ban also came a few days before Biden took to the TV airwaves with rhetoric attacking Trump-supporting Republicans.

  In a Sept. 1 speech given in the shadow of Philadelphia’s Liberty Hall, Biden warned against “MAGA Republicans” who “live not in the light of truth but in the shadow of lies.”

  ‘Spiraling to Anarchy’

  “We are spiraling to anarchy, and we have to take the politics out of the positions by people of power within our legislative and executive branch,” attorney Sandra Spurgeon, who has litigated hundreds of cases to a verdict, told The Epoch Times.

  Spurgeon, who supports the DOJ ban, said that Garland had no choice but to do something to try to restore the public’s respect for law enforcement. She warned that the leadership of the DOJ and the FBI “live a very different life than you and I do.”

  “They don’t think about the same things on the level that we would think of things because they have been elevated into a state where they have lost the appreciation of impartiality,” Surgeon added about top government officials targeted in the ban.

  “And quite frankly, they just don’t care,” she added.

  And it’s that out-of-touch behavior by our political class that has caused the crisis that necessitated the DOJ ban, one former U.S. special agent told The Epoch Times.

  “The issue is that a Biden appointee, the U.S. Attorney for the state of Massachusetts, showed up at a Joe Biden fundraising event where First Lady Jill Biden was appearing,” Eric Caron, who previously worked as an agent for the U.S. Treasury and for the Department of Homeland Security said about the impetus for the political ban by the Attorney General.

  “She even used a government vehicle,” to get to the event, Caron added, all of which could be a violation of the Hatch Act ban on electioneering.

  The electioneering claim is under investigation by the U.S. Office of Special Counsel after the case was referred to the DOJ by Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) after Rollins, who had a fractious confirmation process, showed up to the Biden fundraiser.

  Politicization Claims

  Others have wondered if the ban, as well as another DOJ memo issued on the same day reiterating a policy restricting communications with Congress could be an attempt to intimidate so-called whistleblowers within the FBI and DOJ.

  “Ever since we told you that FBI whistleblowers had begun contacting Members of Congress to report on political pressure from high-ranking FBI officials to falsely label some investigations and run interference on others to serve a political agenda, Attorney General Merrick Garland has been very busy trying to shut them down, and anyone else who might expose what’s going on,” noted the American Center for Law and Justice, run by former Trump attorney Jay Sekulow.

  But even after discounting the possible partisan motives behind the moves, the gesture will be inadequate in regaining the trust and confidence of the American people, said one skeptic.

  Under Garland, there have been a number of highly publicized cases that seem to indicate extreme politicization in the DOJ, Mike Davis of the Article III Project (A3P), which promotes constitutionalist judges and the rule of law, told The Epoch Times.

  One such episode, according to Davis, included an October 2021 memo by Garland foreshadowing “a series of measures designed to address the rise in criminal conduct directed toward school personnel.”

  The DOJ memo came after the National School Boards Association, a key ally of the Democrats, wrote a letter to Biden, complaining that parents who showed up at school board meetings put school personnel “under an immediate threat” of violence. The association later apologized for the letter. Garland, later testifying at a House Judiciary Committee hearing, said that the DOJ hadn’t been told by the White House to issue the memo.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/09/2022 – 23:00

• Is A US Civil War On The Horizon?
  Is A US Civil War On The Horizon?

  In a recent response to the FBI’s recovering of classified documents from Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence, South Carolina senator Lindsey Graham predicted “riots in the streets” if the former president is indicted over his retention of the materials after leaving the White House.

  As Statista’s Martin Armstrong notes, there have been rumblings of warning signs from some observers for some time that the U.S. could get dragged into a civil war if it continues on its route of growing political and social division – concerns only amplified in the wake of the January 6 storming of the Capitol.

  By now, the impression that a civil war could be brewing has spread to the general public, and as a new Gallup poll indicates, to a large extent.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  When looking at all adult U.S. citizens responding to the survey, 43 percent said they think that a civil war is at least somewhat likely in their country in the coming decade.

  

  As the chart above shows, those identifying as ‘strong Democrats’ were slightly more optimistic overall, but 40 percent still held this position. A majority of ‘strong Republicans’ on the other hand said they think civil war is coming – 54 percent.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/09/2022 – 22:40

• Law-Abiding Gun Owners Ignored By Media, Maligned By Politicians
  Law-Abiding Gun Owners Ignored By Media, Maligned By Politicians

  Authored by John R. Lott Jr. via RealClear Wire (emphasis ours),

  In celebration of New York’s new gun control law taking effect on September 1, Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul claimed: “This whole concept that a good guy with a gun will stop the bad guys with a gun, it doesn’t hold up. And the data bears this out, so that theory is over.”

  

  At the same press conference, New York City Mayor Eric Adams warned that more concealed carry permits might lead to an increase in violence at Times Square, even though Times Square remains a gun-free zone for permit holders.

  This is a typical response from Democrats. After each mass public shooting, Democratic elected officials push for more gun control. They ignore examples, even those that generated significant public attention, in which armed bystanders saved many lives. They also disregard a grim aspect of such crimes: Most mass shooters want to commit suicide in a way that will gain the most media coverage. The more people they kill, the more coverage they will get.

  The shooters may be callous and crazy, but they are rational enough to realize that they can kill more people if their victims are defenseless.

  Like so many other mass public shooters, the Buffalo shooter wrote in his manifesto: “Areas where CCW permits are low may also be good areas of attack.” The national media refuses to report other explicit statements by attackers. Nor do they report the fact that 94% of mass public shootings occur in places where civilians are banned from having guns.

  Surveys show that criminologists and economists had the same top four preferred policies for stopping mass public shootings. On a 1-to-10 scale, American criminologists rated the following policies most highly: Allow K-12 teachers to carry concealed handguns (6.0), allow military personnel to carry on military bases (5.6), encourage the elimination of gun-free zones (5.3), and relax federal regulations that pressure companies to create gun-free zones (5.0).

  The top four policies for economists were the same, but in a different order: Encourage the elimination of gun-free zones (7.9), relax federal regulations that pressure companies to create gun-free zones (7.8), allow K-12 teachers to carry concealed handguns (7.7), and allow military personnel to carry on military bases (7.7).

  As important as police are to fighting crime, increased policing didn’t make the top of the list. That’s because stopping mass public shootings is a uniquely difficult challenge. For police, wearing a uniform is often akin to wearing a neon sign saying, “Shoot me first.” That makes officers easy targets for attackers. The benefit of concealed carry is that the attackers won’t know who is a threat to them.

  “A deputy in uniform has an extremely difficult job in stopping these attacks,” said Sarasota County, Florida, Sheriff Kurt Hoffman. “These terrorists have huge strategic advantages in determining the time and place of attacks. They can wait for a deputy to leave the area, or pick an undefended location. Even when police or deputies are in the right place at the right time, those in uniform who can be readily identified as guards may as well be holding up neon signs saying, ‘Shoot me first.’ My deputies know that we cannot be everywhere.”

  Given how infrequently the news media covers defensive gun uses, it isn’t surprising that Gov. Hochul believes that defensive gun uses are rare. But survey estimates show on average that Americans use guns defensively about 2 million times a year. According to academic estimates, defensive gun uses – including instances when guns are simply shown to deter a crime – are four to five times more common than gun crimes.

  Hochul also worries about permit holders themselves committing crime, but her fears are misplaced. New York doesn’t provide data on the rate at which permit holders have their permits revoked, but we do have that data for other states. In the 19 states with comprehensive data, the average revocation rate for any reason is one-tenth of 1%. Typically, permit revocations occur because someone moved, died, or forgot to bring a permit while carrying. In Florida and Texas, permit holders are convicted of firearms-related violations at one-twelfth the rate of police officers.

  The governor might also be surprised to learn that the general public disagrees with her. An early July survey by the Trafalgar Group showed a plurality of American general election voters believe that armed citizens are the most effective element in protecting you and your family in the case of a mass shooting. First on the list was “armed citizens” at 42%, followed by “local police” (25%) and “federal agents” (10%).

  Police are essential to keeping the peace and bringing criminals to justice, but in most cases they can’t directly protect people. That’s why Gov. Hochul owes the residents of her state the chance to protect themselves.

  John R. Lott Jr. is a contributor to RealClearInvestigations, focusing on voting and gun rights. His articles have appeared in publications such as the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Los Angeles Times, New York Post, USA Today, and Chicago Tribune. Lott is an economist who has held research and/or teaching positions at the University of Chicago, Yale University, Stanford, UCLA, Wharton, and Rice.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/09/2022 – 22:20

• Wells Fargo Screws Sex Workers, Cancels Accounts Over 'Risks'
  Wells Fargo Screws Sex Workers, Cancels Accounts Over ‘Risks’

  Wells Fargo may have had no problem scamming clients into accounts without consent (until they got caught and were fined $185 million), but when it comes to sex workers, the bank is suddenly pious.

  

  As Rolling Stone reports, sex workers across the country are reporting that their Wells Fargo accounts have been terminated with no explanation – aside from referencing “ongoing reviews of its account relationships in connection with the Bank’s responsibilities to manage risks,” effective immediately.

  In the letters, which are dated August 25 and copies of which were provided to Rolling Stone, Wells Fargo offers zero explanation for the decision to terminate the relationship with these customers. The letter says that the bank “performs ongoing reviews of its account relationships in connection with the Bank’s responsibilities to manage risks in its banking operations,” and that the recipient’s accounts will be closed “as a result of this review.” Wells Fargo did not immediately respond to a request for comment. -Rolling Stone

  30-year customer Alana Evans, president of the Adult Performance Artists’ Guild (APAG) says that she’s had no prior issues with the bank. In a Sept. 2 video posted to Twitter, she said: “I don’t bounce checks, I’ve never done anything bad with my bank account, I don’t have fraud alerts or do chargebacks,” adding “A bank that I’ve done business with for 30 years decided that I’m not worthy of a relationship with them.”

  “How am I supposed to pay my bills? How am I supposed to get paid?” she  continued.

  A little long but it’s my 💔😢 I don’t normally post videos like this but I feel the need to express how deeply this has affected myself and others – banking discrimination destroys livelihoods of marginalized workers @WellsFargo pic.twitter.com/gzYCeETh1G

  — Alana Evans (@alanaevansxxx) September 2, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsThe owners of Las Vegas-based porn production company, YummyGirl Studios, were also terminated as clients by the bank. Spike Irons and Sofie Marie received a letter dated Aug. 25, which said they had until Oct. 13 to move their money – shortly after cashing a check from Hustler for Marie’s modeling. The couple primarily used the account to pay out independent contractors, including actors and production staffers.

  

  They have applied to two other banks and been rejected, and have no idea how they’ll pay their staff according to the report.

  “We’re a tax-paying business that has been operating consistently since 2016,” said Irons. “Tell me how we are high-risk. Wouldn’t they have dumped us years ago?”

  Another adult content creator, Leia Way, was also canceled by Wells Fargo – despite telling Rolling Stone that she’s been a member in good standing for six years, and had been using the account to process wire transfer payments from an affiliate marketing program linked to a cam site.

  “In this line of work, the feeling of being discriminated never really goes away,” she said. “With that feeling, I am always expecting the other shoe to drop.”

  She’s been forced to find another bank as well.

  “To have a business terminate your relationship when you’ve done nothing wrong or illegal, it sucks,” she added.

  Even a former adult performer, ‘Raylene,’ had her Wells Fargo account terminated despite being out of the industry for a decade. The only activity related to the adult industry are residual payments from cam site Streammate.

  “It’s kind of messed up,” she said. “If I feel unsafe in a financial institution, what’s next? Did they check my background? Why would one or two deposits a year flag my account? I would feel better if someone would give me a straight answer.”

  The fact that she has been out of the industry for so long, she says, makes her even more disquieted about Wells Fargo’s decision. “You feel powerless over the external forces, over corporate and religious America, trying to exclude certain groups from living their lives in a free way,” she says. -Rolling Stone

  According to the report, this isn’t the first time banks have punished people in the adult industry for seemingly no reason. In 2014, JPMorgan Chase shuttered a slew of adult performers’ accounts without explanation – including  Teagan Presley and Keiran Lee.

  What gives?

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/09/2022 – 22:00

• History Repeats: Abandoning Sound Money Leads To Tyranny And Ruin
  History Repeats: Abandoning Sound Money Leads To Tyranny And Ruin

  Submitted by Jp Cortez, Sound Money Defense League,

  Money is one of the most misunderstood topics of our time, and we’re seeing the implications of this play out every day.

  To understand money, one first must first understand that human beings have always been incentivized to participate in exchange. If humans could not, or did not, trade, the majority of people would die young: whether by starvation, disease, or exposure to the elements.

  The survivors would be left with an extremely low standard of living; not a world any of us would want to live in. This means that exchange is a necessary condition, not only of our economy, but of human flourishing.

  

  Origins of Money

  Before there was money, there was barter (also known as direct exchange) – a system in which every good is traded directly against every other good.

  A small island economy could function this way: a couple of coconuts traded for fishing line, or a bushel of bananas in exchange for bamboo with which to build a shelter.

  As Tho Bishop from the Mises Institute illustrates, imagine that a farmer wants to buy a pair of boots, so he visits the town cobbler and tries to trade a dozen eggs in exchange. However, the cobbler in town doesn’t want eggs. The cobbler might want beef, but the farmer isn’t willing to slaughter his cow for boots.

  A trade where both parties are happy is now difficult. It’s easy to see how unmanageable this system is as populations grow, and as needs and wants expand.

  Let’s revisit our farmer: Instead of offering eggs, he realizes that what the cobbler really wants is butter. So he goes out and trades for butter, and then uses that butter to trade for boots. If enough people also want butter, our farmer may buy more—not to use it, but to exchange it for other goods and services. This is called indirect exchange.

  Many goods throughout history, with varying degrees of effectiveness, have filled the role of “butter.” Salt, wampum, and tobacco have all been used as money, just to name a few. However, gold and silver emerged as universally accepted monies by the free market because of their durability, transportability, fungibility, and scarcity.

  Emerged is the key. The process through which money is “created” is not one of central planning or of creation at all, but rather one in which money is “discovered” by markets.

  Gold and silver have other qualities that make them a sound form of money.

  These precious metals are relatively scarce, used across a variety of industries, and are aesthetically beautiful.

  They are fungible – an ounce of silver is, for all intents and purposes, uniform.

  They are divisible. If you split one ounce of gold into two, the two halves are of equal value that add up to the value of the whole.

  Compare this to diamonds. They may have some qualities of a store of wealth over time, but each diamond is unique and cutting one in half will reduce its value by far more than half.

  This process—the cumulative development of a medium of exchange on the free market—is how societies throughout history chose reliable forms of money and moved away from barter, explains Bishop.

  However, not all forms of money have stood the test of time.

  What Is Sound Money?

  Sound money carries no counterparty risk (unlike a banknote, it is not simultaneously someone else’s obligation). And it retains relatively stable purchasing power over time.

  Sound money has two pretty simple value propositions. The first is that sound money protects capital and creates stability. People can accumulate savings and transmit value over time, allowing them to better plan, save, and invest for the future.

  The second is that sound money acts as a defense against excess debt accumulation and an ever-growing government.

  The current system of fiat money issued by central banks enables unlimited deficit spending by government. Inflation allows the costs to be socialized across all holders of the currency by slowly and steadily stealing everyone’s purchasing power.

  From decade-long wars, to wasteful domestic programs, the ability to create currency endlessly has empowered the government to spend in ways that it would not be able to if not for a printing press.

  The Decline of Sound Money in the United States

  The Framers of the United States Constitution understood the importance of sound money, and that’s why they codified it. Article 1, section 10 states: “No State shall emit bills of credit…[or] make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts.”

  However, less than a hundred years into the American experiment, the Civil War began. Wars are expensive, and the federal government, which had a policy to only print notes that were backed by an equal amount of gold and silver, was running low on specie.

  Lincoln and his money managers knew citizens would be wary of unbacked paper notes. After all, the Constitutional Convention that took place less than 75 years prior had overwhelmingly rejected paper money based, in part, on recent experiences with it.

  George Washington wrote that paper money was “wicked.” James Madison wrote it was “unjust” and “unconstitutional.”

  Even though it was unconstitutional, Lincoln’s government issued unbacked paper money, called Greenbacks.

  But how could he get people to accept them in exchange for their goods and services? The answer is the use of government force through what are known as legal tender laws.

  It’s worth noting that the government expected the plebeians to use and accept this fake money, but any customs duties or other taxes still had to be paid with real gold or silver coin.

  Legal tender is a stamp of approval by the federal government that magically turns strips of unbacked paper into money people must accept, if begrudgingly at first. By the end of the war, nearly half a billion unbacked notes had been issued.

  As always happens with paper money, Greenbacks lost the overwhelming majority of their purchasing power before the country went back on a gold standard.

  Over the next 150 years, though, the steady destruction of sound money continued.

  The 20th Century Brought the Outright Destruction of Sound Money

  In 1913, Congress created the Federal Reserve System (which has since served to devalue the Federal Reserve Note more than 97%, despite its mandate to maintain price stability).

  Then came an income tax, gold confiscation by executive order, the abrogation of gold clause contracts, and ultimately the complete severance of any tie between gold and the Federal Reserve Note in 1971.

  What came next surprises no one: An explosion of government spending brings us to today.

  Biden administration bureaucrats face no constraints on their borrowing and bailout schemes. America is now well down the road to financial insolvency, shouldering more than $30 trillion in debt.

  History teaches us no government can ultimately escape the consequences of removing sound money from its monetary system. Absent the constraints on ever-expanding fiat money supply imposed by gold and silver, the current inflation problem can only worsen.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/09/2022 – 21:40

• Zoo In China Says Endangered Species Are Starving Amidst Lockdowns, Pleads Local Authorities For Food
  Zoo In China Says Endangered Species Are Starving Amidst Lockdowns, Pleads Local Authorities For Food

  No supply chain is being spared from the effects of China’s continued Covid lockdowns – and that includes food for endangered species. 

  While the rest of the world worries about whether or not it’ll be able to get its Starbucks coffee the way they still like it in the morning or whether supplies of oatmilk are once again running thin, China has been experiencing shortages of its own. 

  Among the more obscure examples is the case unfolding at the Guizhou Wildlife Park, where FT says there has been an “urgent plea for live chickens and fish, as well as steamed buns and frozen crabs” for use in feeding “endangered Siberian, white Bengal and South China tigers, as well as pandas, crocodiles and zebras.”

  The owner of the park sent a letter to local authorities stating: “Almost 70 per cent of the animals kept in the park are protected species, but at present, the park’s feed stockpiles are far from enough.” 

  

  The letter also asked for “stocks of sweet potato, peppers and frozen shrimp tails,” according to FT, who noted that there are still about 50 cities, with a combined total of about 290 million people, on lockdown. 

  The park said it needed to keep at least 10 days of live food for some of its animals. The park’s shortages of a microcosm of similar fears about food supply and security returning throughout the country. 

  Ting Lu, Nomura’s chief China economist, told FT: “Over the past week, the overall Covid situation deteriorated considerably in China. What is becoming increasingly concerning is that Covid hotspots are continuing to shift away from several remote regions and cities — with seemingly less economic significance to the country — to provinces that matter much more to China’s national economy.”

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/09/2022 – 21:20

• Snyder: What In The World Is Wrong With This Country?
  Snyder: What In The World Is Wrong With This Country?

  Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

  Just when it seems like we can’t possibly go any lower, we always manage to top ourselves.  In the old days, every once in a while I would come across a story that would make me shake my head in disbelief because it was just so absurd.  Now it is happening on a daily basis.  In this article I am going to share some examples with you.  I realize that some of these things are difficult to believe, but all of them are true.  Our country really is coming apart at the seams right in front of our eyes, and the pace of our national decline only seems to be accelerating.  If we are not able to turn our cultural decay around, eventually we will not have a country at all.

  

  Let me start with a new law which will go into effect in Illinois on January 1st.

  From that point forward, those guilty of second-degree murder, kidnapping, burglary and arson will always be released without having to post any bail at all…

  When a new Illinois law takes effect next year, it will do away with the cash bail system in the state, meaning suspects charged with felonies, including second-degree murder, aggravated battery, and arson, will be released without bail.

  The Counter Signal reports the Safety, Accountability, Fairness and Equity-Today Act, also called the SAFE-T Act, would end cash bail and includes 12 non-detainable offenses, second-degree murder, aggravated battery, and arson without bail, as well as drug-induced homicide, kidnapping, burglary, robbery, intimidation, aggravated DUI, aggravated fleeing and eluding, drug offenses and threatening a public official.

  When the law takes effect on Jan. 1, 2023, criminals charged with the crimes mentioned above will be released without bail.

  How many hardened criminals do you think will actually show up for their trials?

  I am sure that there will be a few.

  Of course many of our “woke judges” are doing their very best to make sure that many violent criminals never pay the price for their crimes even if they do stand trial.

  In California, a judge recently granted a mistrial to one defendant just because he didn’t get a good night of sleep the night before…

  A California judge, who hails from a powerful Democrat family who endorsed LA DA George Gascon, granted a mistrial for a man facing life in prison because he was sleepy.

  The alleged criminal apparently did not get a good night’s rest before the trial after spending the night in a cell without a bed or blanket.

  Seriously?

  So now this violent criminal is back on the streets even though he pointed a gun in the face of a female fast food worker and threatened to blow her brains out…

  Vamazae Elgin Banks, 24, appeared in court after threatening a McDonald’s worker with a gun before stealing less than $100.

  Court records accused Banks of telling the cashier at the fast food joint that he would kill her if she didn’t produce the cash quickly enough, allegedly telling her ‘hurry up or I’ll blow your brains out!’

  Our system of justice is systematically being destroyed.

  But many Americans simply don’t care because they are drugged out of their minds.

  The United States has the biggest problem with legal drugs on the entire planet, and it also has the biggest problem with illegal drugs on the entire planet.

  When I saw the following story, I thought that it perfectly summed up where we are as a nation today…

  A speeding woman is accused of driving under the influence of cocaine and alcohol when she crashed into another car, killing its driver who was under the influence of methamphetamine, police said.

  Summer Butler, 37, faces charges of DUI resulting in death, reckless driving and being in possession of a controlled substance in connection with the fatal crash in January, court documents obtained by the 8 News Now I-Team said.

  At this point, it seems like almost everyone is an addict, and that includes many of our government officials.  Here is just one example…

  A Louisiana state official was arrested for allegedly buying drugs from a drug dealer outside of a fast food chain on Tuesday.

  Bridgette Hull, 37, serves as the executive secretary for the Louisiana State Board of Private Security Examiners. She was purchasing drugs from dealer Steven McCarthy, who was under surveillance, when a Louisiana Attorney General Office employee recognized him at a Livingston Parish restaurant.

  Hull was arrested onsite, but McCarthy fled the scene after back up was called – resulting in a pursuit. He later crashed into another car and was arrested.

  If we would secure our borders, we could at least reduce the flow of illegal drugs into this country.

  But the Biden administration refuses to do that.

  And so the worst drug crisis in all of U.S. history will continue to escalate, and substances that are laced with fentanyl will continue to kill countless numbers of our young people…

  San Diego and Imperial County comprise the epicenter of fentanyl drug trafficking in the United States, according to the Department of Justice (DOJ), which reported that seizures of fentanyl in San Diego were up 323% in FY2019-FY2021 and that fentanyl overdose deaths increased 2,375% in San Diego County between 2016 and 2021.

  “A decade ago, we didn’t even know about fentanyl, and now it’s a national crisis,” said U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of California Randy Grossman. “The amount of fentanyl we are seizing at the border is staggering. The number of fentanyl seizures and fentanyl-related deaths in our district are unprecedented.”

  If you are waiting for our national leaders to fix our growing problems, you are going to be waiting for a really, really long time.

  Every major decision they make seems to make things even worse, and the Biden administration keeps appointing extremely alarming individuals to top positions of power.

  In fact, Biden just appointed a “doctor” that is absolutely obsessed with pentagrams to be the National Monkeypox Response Deputy Coordinator.

  Meet Demetre Daskalakis.
  Demetre was just appointed by Joe Biden to be the official White House National Monkeypox Response Deputy Coordinator. Demetre proudly wears the official symbol of the Church of Satan: The Pentagram.
  Joe Biden appointed a Satanist to the White House. pic.twitter.com/TiMPY29AtC

  — Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) September 8, 2022

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  Not cherry picking here. The Pentagram is proudly displayed in his *promotional* photos for a CDC appointment. It’s ubiquitous on his social media. Demetre has Pentagram tattoos.

  So it’s a fair question: Did Joe Biden appoint a Satanist? pic.twitter.com/471Fp3uKss

  — Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) September 8, 2022

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  So far, only a very small handful of conservatives are objecting to his appointment to such an important position.

  What in the world is wrong with this country?

  Have we gone completely and totally nuts?

  Perhaps we have.  At this point, close to one-fourth of all Democratic voters actually believe that men can get pregnant…

  A poll conducted by WPA Intelligence has found that almost one quarter of Democratic voters believe that “some men can become pregnant.”

  Twenty-two percent of Democrats overall agreed with the statement.

  The poll also found that more women agreed with the statement, and an incredible 36 percent of white, college-educated female Democrats agreed.

  We aren’t just in a state of decline.

  The truth is that we are in a very advanced state of decline and the clock is ticking.

  If you love this nation, what has happened to us should deeply sadden you.

  We were once the greatest country on the entire planet, but now we are rapidly being destroyed from within.

  Please wake up America, because time to do anything about all of this is quickly running out.

  *  *  *

  It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/09/2022 – 21:00

• Sub-Million-Dollar Manhattan Condo Sales Slump Below Pre-COVID Trend As Affordability Crisis Rages
  Sub-Million-Dollar Manhattan Condo Sales Slump Below Pre-COVID Trend As Affordability Crisis Rages

  New Yorkers searching for a sign of relief from Manhattan’s red hot real estate market may finally be getting some good news. 

  The borough’s lower-end real estate market is beginning to cool after a year of bidding wars. Rising mortgage rates have made borrowing costs more expensive, curbing demand for prospective homebuyers with budgets under $1 million, according to Bloomberg, citing new data from brokerage Serhant. 

  Serhant found the number of listings under $500,000 that entered contracts in the three months beginning in June was 29% below the decade average leading up to the virus pandemic. The number of properties that went under contract between $500,000 to $1 million was 15% below the pre-Covid average. 

  

  Garrett Derderian, Serhant’s director of market intelligence, said buyers under a million dollars are more susceptible to rising mortgage rates. 

  “Even a one or two percentage point increase does make a difference to the borrowing power of those buyers,” Derderian said. 

  He described a housing affordability crisis: the 30-year fixed mortgage jumped from 3.2% starting the year to 6% in June. As of this week, Bankrate data shows the 30-year fixed mortgage is back above 6%. 

  

  We warned that skyrocketing mortgage rates would spark a housing affordability crisis as early as March. Fast forward to today, the affordability index crashed to three-decade lows. 

  

  The affordability crisis has pressured the lower-tier homebuyers first, as soaring borrowing costs may have ended the 2021 housing frenzy. 

  Transactions entering contract have been slowing compared to last year as buyers are deterred by higher rates, with Manhattan home deals dropping 39% in June, July and August from a year ago. Contracts signed were also 10% below the average levels for the same months during the decade before the pandemic hit. –Bloomberg 

  In June, July, and August, the median price of a Manhattan property was approximately $1,159,000 and only increased by 1% over the same period last year. At some point, the growth in home prices will stall and then reverse. Inventory is rising much quicker than last year. 

  Suppose mortgage rates remain elevated while inventory increases, along with high inflation eating away wages. In that case, there’s the possibility downward pressure could finally reverse prices. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/09/2022 – 20:40

• The FBI Is Hiding Epstein Records
  The FBI Is Hiding Epstein Records

  Authored by Techno Fog via The Reactionary,

  

  Your humble author, as promised, is involved in litigation to extract records from the federal government. It’s easy to talk about current events. The more difficult part is suing federal agencies for documentation of their wrongdoing.

  This involves initiating FOIA requests, which are rarely answered quickly or completely. Out of our 75+ FOIA requests from this past year, only one was answered quickly and fully. A small miracle.

  That was where we obtained CDC e-mails disclosing how they changed the definition of “vaccine” because of the efficacy problems with the Pfizer and Moderna mRNA vaccines. It’s a must-read if you haven’t seen it already (even if it got us wrongly flagged on the Carnegie Mellon University COVID-19 “misinformation” watchlist):

  Related: CDC Emails: Our Definition Of Vaccine is “Problematic”

  Then there are the records we must fight for.

  One development we can divulge is our effort to obtain the FBI’s records on Jeffrey Epstein. We made a simple request: hand over all FBI interviews with Epstein. We know those records are out there, as we were the first to report that Epstein had been a source for the FBI. (It was later confirmed that Epstein cooperated on a Bear Stearns investigation.)

  Wait. Was pedophile Jeffrey Epstein an informant for Mueller’s FBI?

  From the 5/24/18 FBI Vault release: “Epstein has also provided information to the FBI as agreed upon.”

  Is that why he escaped serious charges for molesting over twenty girls? pic.twitter.com/K4suAumD85

  — Techno Fog (@Techno_Fog) May 24, 2018

  But we’re not convinced that was the only time Epstein spoke with the FBI. There were other hints and rumors that he worked with the US government to recover stolen funds. Thus the FOIA request.

  How did the FBI respond? Not by denying the existence of any records.

  Instead, the FBI is hiding behind FOIA’s law enforcement exemption, stating that the production of the Epstein records would interfere with ongoing law enforcement investigations:

  “The records responsive to your request are law enforcement records; there is a pending or prospective law enforcement proceeding relevant to these responsive records, and release of the information could reasonably be expected to interfere with enforcement proceedings.”

  

  We’re exceedingly doubtful that the release of the Epstein records would “interfere with enforcement proceedings.” Ghislaine Maxwell has been convicted and Epstein is dead. The only potential tie might be from a grand jury investigation into “other possible co-conspirators of Jeffrey Epstein.” But that was from the summer of 2020 and we rightly assume no charges were brought against whoever was being investigated.

  It’s more likely that the Epstein records might embarrass the FBI. The DOJ and FBI have been known to abuse the FOIA law enforcement exemption to hide investigative materials from public release. We’ve seen them do it. And they’re doing it again.

  But here’s the good news: the FBI’s response is a tacit admission that these records exist. We’ll fight for them. And we’ll get them.

  Stay tuned, and thanks for your support.

  Techno

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/09/2022 – 20:20

• Most Central Banks Have Raised Interest Rates In 2022
  Most Central Banks Have Raised Interest Rates In 2022

  In many countries, consumer prices are rising significantly. Central banks have the ability to counteract this via monetary policy means – by raising interest rates, thereby restricting access to credit and slowing down value creation.

  As of early September 2022, the majority of central banks worldwide had carried out rate hikes – some small and other rather large. As seen in data available on Trading Economics, a few countries also kept rates the same or even cut then, but these were often nations experiencing severe economic turmoil or those that are cut off from world markets to some extent.

  In the face of inflation, the European Central Bank raised rates for the first time in eleven years in July, but central bank interest rates still remain low in Europe.

  The United States’ Fed, which like the ECB stuck to zero interest for a long time, hiked rates more aggressively as the U.S. was affected by inflation more severely than many other countries. The upper end of the interest rate range stood at 2.5 percent in the U.S. most recently.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  Turkey and China are among the countries that cut in interest rates in 2022 and have a lower rate now than they had on Jan 1, 2022.

  China’s economy is not struggling with high inflation, but it is forecast to face a number of downside risks, including power shortages, virus outbreaks and weak consumption. According to Bloomberg, the People’s Bank of China will therefore presumably relax its monetary policy and support economic growth by enabling more liquidity.

  The monetary policy of the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is criticized by Bloomberg experts and is described as “unorthodox”. In Turkey, consumer prices have risen by up to 19 percent. Turkey’s central bank recently lowered its key interest rate nevertheless. Erdogan is evidently of the opinion that high interest rates would conversely fuel inflation, while low ones would stimulate loans and investments.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/09/2022 – 20:00

• Australia's Left-Wing Greens Party Calls For Republic Hours After Queen's Passing
  Australia’s Left-Wing Greens Party Calls For Republic Hours After Queen’s Passing

  Authored by Daniel Teng via The Epoch Times,

  Members of the left-wing Australian Greens party have called for the country to “move forward” and embrace becoming a Republic—to sever Australia’s links with the Crown—just hours after news of the death of Queen Elizabeth II.

  

  Greens leader Adam Bandt wrote on Twitter, “Rest In Peace Queen Elizabeth II. Our thoughts are with her family and all who loved her.”

  “Now Australia must move forward. We need Treaty with First Nations people, and we need to become a Republic.”

  It is unclear what a “Treaty with First Nations” would entail.

  Fellow Greens MP David Shoebridge wrote a lengthier statement on Facebook saying the death of the monarch was a tragedy that “echoes well beyond the grief of one family.”

  But he also said her passing marked the “last echoes of an exploitative imperialism, which has caused and still causes grief for millions around the world.”

  “The transition of power we are watching unfold, through someone’s genetic inheritance, is beyond strange and seriously out of place in a democracy in 2022,” he said.

  “This is a moment we need to move towards Treaty and Republic. Two calls for Sovereignty that are deeply connected.”

  Indigenous leader Warren Mundine has criticised left-leaning political figures and commentators for propagating the colonialism narrative.

  “We’ve been able to produce [Indigenous] surgeons, doctors, lawyers, accountants, academics, and engineers. And getting Aboriginals through school and all that, and also very focused on improving the life expectancy and economic prosperity for Aboriginal people,” he previously told The Epoch Times.

  “When you have negative things all the time, you get this victimhood. And that’s what a lot of this stuff does, and we need to move away from that.”

  Monarchists Hail the Late Queen’s Influence

  Meanwhile, the Australians for Constitutional Monarchy said it was a moment of “great sadness” for the people of the Commonwealth.

  “She set the theme of her long reign in her address to the Commonwealth broadcast from South Africa on her 21st year when she declared that she would dedicate her whole life, whether it be long or short, to the service of the great imperial family to which we all belong,” the ACM wrote on Facebook.

  Fellow supporters of maintaining the Crown as Australia’s head of state, the Australian Monarchist League, said the Queen’s passing marked the close of the second Elizabethan era and “heralds a new chapter in world history.”

  “Australians can take comfort in the knowledge that their new King will unequivocally continue the longstanding traditions, dutiful service, and vital constitutional role which epitomised our late Queen.”

  The campaign for a Republic has been an ongoing attempt to change Australia’s political system from a constitutional monarchy, where the head of state is a member of the British Royal Family, to a Republic where the head of state is a president.

  The last referendum on the issue in 1999 failed to win enough support, with 45.13 percent of voters in favour and 54.87 percent against. One criticism was the Republic model presented saw the president selected by sitting members of Parliament and not the general public.

  Current Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has promised to revisit the issue.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/09/2022 – 19:40

• Top Rice-Exporter India Curbs Shipments, Adds To Fresh Food Inflation Fears
  Top Rice-Exporter India Curbs Shipments, Adds To Fresh Food Inflation Fears

  We told readers in April that the next challenge for the global food supply could be a plunge in rice production (read: here). Then in early August, severe heatwaves in India, the world’s biggest rice shipper, wreaked havoc across farmland in the country, depressing crop output. Today, India restricted some rice exports and placed levies on others, exacerbating a world already squeezed by a food crisis. 

  Bloomberg reported India imposed a 20% duty on white and brown rice exports and banned shipments of broke rice — parboiled and basmati rice were excluded from the export duty and/or trade restrictions. The new curbs apply to about 60% of India’s rice exports and go into effect Friday. 

  India’s clamp down on grain exports is to calm domestic prices after low rainfall during the monsoon season curtailed planting. The country accounts for 40% of global rice shipments and could spark yet another wave of food inflation for the poorest nations importing the grain. 

  

  “Such severe disruptions in global supplies, combined with a record level of consumption worldwide, should supercharge” prices and further fuel food inflation, said Sabrin Chowdhury, head of commodities at Fitch Solutions.

  

  According to Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, “imposing a 20% levy is a big deal … this move will cause global rice prices to rally.” 

  Ophaswongse said traders would be forced to purchase from rivals Thailand and Vietnam, struggling to increase shipments and will send prices even higher. India’s export restrictions will be a massive blow to importing nations in Asia and Africa that consume the grain. 

  Persistent inflation (especially food and energy) could spark further civil unrest worldwide over the next coming months. The forecast for impending global turmoil to deepen was published in a new note by Verisk Maplecroft, a UK-based risk consulting and intelligence firm (read: here). 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/09/2022 – 19:20

• How Will China's New $44 Billion Stimulus Impact Steel Prices?
  How Will China’s New $44 Billion Stimulus Impact Steel Prices?

  By Ag Metal Miner, published in OilPrice.com

  A few days ago, China’s State Council announced more stimulus policies. The new measures included an additional 300 billion yuan ($44 billion) in quotas for infrastructure spending and investments by banks. This was in addition to the 300 billion yuan announced at June-end. However, the only real question regarding the stimuli is looking at everything happening with steel and iron ore prices: will it help? Most initial reports suggest that the move may give impetus to steel and iron ore off-take, both of which are in a months-long slump. However, other reports believe these new stimulus actions might not achieve their goals. More specifically, they won’t generate a renewed interest in construction activity in China. As a result, there won’t be much (if any) of a positive impact on the steel sector.

  

  In 2021, China produced 1.033 billion tons of crude steel. It was the first decline since 2016. Thus far, in 2022, national steel production is down 6.4% year-on-year. The China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute predicted this at the beginning of the year, stating that China’s 2022 output would slow to 1.017 billion tons. This represents a 1.5% decrease from the year before.

  Steel and Iron Ore Prices Bouncing Back

  Following the recent stimuli announcement, a Bloomberg report stated that China’s raw materials prices, including iron ore prices, had officially steadied. This came after factory activity shrank less than expected in August. Meanwhile, the purchasing managers’ index for steel stayed in contraction, and the pace of its decline narrowed sharply.

  Steel industry experts are hopeful that steel output will increase in September as the country starts to respond to the government stimulus efforts, which will hopefully aid iron ore prices. Some Chinese steel mills have already signaled that production is rising and profit margins are back in positive territory.

  Indeed, thanks to the June and September stimuli packages, iron ore prices and some steel products are rebounding. For instance, Shanghai steel rebar initiated a recovery recovering its lowest close this year, moving from  3,704 yuan ($539) a ton on July 15 to 4,078 yuan on Aug. 26. Profit margins at steel mills, which were negative in July, returned to positive territory as well. S&P Global Commodity Insights reported a profit of about $50 a ton on rebar in August.

  Rebar Also Struggling

  Rebar inventories have also dropped. This is also a sign of activity picking up. After all, inventories had gone down in the last nine weeks. They are now about two million tons below the 7.13 million recorded during the same week in 2021.

  Earlier this week, iron ore futures, too, rebounded. The most-traded January iron ore on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange ended daytime trade 4% higher at 692 yuan ($99.85) a ton for iron ore prices. On the Singapore Exchange, the iron ore October contract went up 4.5% to $98.75 a ton. These are promising numbers, but it will take time to see the true and full effect of the ongoing stimulus.  

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/09/2022 – 19:00

• Are Rolex Prices About To Bottom?
  Are Rolex Prices About To Bottom?

  Since the secondhand luxury watch market peaked in April, we pointed out the slump in prices this summer via two notes titled Investors’ Clock Out’ Of Rolex Bull Market As Demand Cools and “Boom Time Over”: Rolex Prices Crash In China. 

  After a turbulent spring and summer, there’s emerging evidence of a “bottoming out of prices in the world’s most popular luxury watch references,” according to to watch tracking website Sundial. 

  This week the Subdial50 Index, which tracks references for watches such as the Rolex Submariner, Daytona, and Datejust, as well as Patek Philippe Nautilus and an Audemars Piguet Royal Oak, increased 1.2% over the last 30 days. The index is still up 21% over the 12 months but down 22% in the previous six: a wild rollercoaster ride for passionate watch enthusiasts and/or those trying to flip timepieces. 

  

  “The first quarter of 2022 saw preowned luxury watch prices boom, bringing with it scores of new buyers that were introduced to the market for the first time. Many of these left as quickly as they entered: flippers and day traders who’d been told you couldn’t lose money in watches came with little underlying passion and found themselves burnt when prices began to fall,” Subdial wrote in a market update post this week. 

  

  For the secondhand Rolex market specifically, WatchCharts’ index of 30 popular models with high trade activity also shows the pandemic boom and peak euphoria in April — only to give way to a tumultuous summer — comes at a time when stocks, cryptos, and bonds have had a rough year. 

  WatchCharts Rolex index dropped 5.9% in June, followed by a 3.5% fall in July and -5.1% in August. 

  

  A bottom in the secondhand luxury watch market could come when financial conditions ease for real. The latest round of hawkish comments from Federal Reserve members (voting/non-voting) and especially after Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, has ignited a hawkish shift that suggests tightening financial conditions isn’t over. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/09/2022 – 18:40

• Millions Of Electric Car Batteries Retiring By 2030, Are We Ready To Deal With What Could Be Ticking Time Bombs?
  Millions Of Electric Car Batteries Retiring By 2030, Are We Ready To Deal With What Could Be Ticking Time Bombs?

  Authored by Autumn Spreademann via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  The evolving landscape of lithium batteries is creating both contradictions and infrastructure hurdles that, according to some, need to be addressed sooner rather than later. A critical component of this is waste management.

  

  More than 6 million electric vehicle (EV) battery packs will end up as scrap between now and 2030, and the recycling and reuse industries are racing to keep up. Some researchers project that recycling alone will be an over $12 billion industry by 2025.

  U.S. President Joe Biden wants to make America a key player in the EV battery industry with a $3.1 billion spending package for automobile production to transition away from fossil fuels.

  Much of this dream is pinned on a dusty stretch of soil in the Nevada high desert called Thacker Pass. It serves as the lynchpin in Biden’s push for increased domestic lithium production and more EV batteries. That’s because Thacker Pass is the largest hard rock lithium reserve in the United States.

  Currently, China dominates the world’s EV battery production, with more than 80 percent of all units developed there.

  Yet while Biden’s administration has its sights on the top spot for EV battery production, insiders are pointing out industry trapdoors.

  

  Due to the potentially dangerous chemistry of lithium-ion EV units, concrete solutions are needed before an avalanche of dead battery packs ends up sitting around and waiting for recycling like ticking time bombs.

  Those working on the sales end of the EV revolution tend to squirm or offer vague generalities when queried about what will happen to all of the old batteries.

  The notion is quickly lumped into the very broad category of recycling or second life applications without offering any planning details.

  Second life applications are an option for EV batteries no longer fit to power cars, but are suitable for alternative uses like energy storage.

  And while that’s a start, the ultimate question lingers: How can America effectively deal with millions of completely spent, defective, or recalled EV units?

  For people who specialize in hazardous waste, handling lithium batteries is a serious subject.

  “For me, the biggest challenge I see, especially with second life, is on the safety side,” Scott Thibodeau at Veolia North America told The Epoch Times.

  Thibodeau is the general manager of environmental services and solutions at Veolia North America, the second largest hazmat removal service in the United States.

  He explained the chemistry of lithium-ion batteries is problematic since they can’t be dumped or recycled as easily as some other materials. This requires particular adaptations within the evolving EV industry to responsibly strip, package, and dispose of old units.

  A ‘Thermal Runaway’

  “The packing and logistics isn’t easy or cheap,” Thibodeau said.

  Moreover, the batteries pose a significant fire hazard.

  Tucked within the sprawling Chicago suburbs is the town of Morris, Illinois. Around midday on Jun. 29, 2021, the fire department received a call that a warehouse fire had broken out in a structure that many residents assumed was just an abandoned building. The call came from someone who claimed to be an employee for a company that was storing 200,000 pounds of batteries in the building, most of which were lithium.

  Fire Chief Tracey Steffes told reporters that it was the first time his department had ever fought a lithium fire.

  Mitigating traditional fires is done by using water or chemicals to cut off the supply of oxygen. However, lithium is unique in that it doesn’t require oxygen to burn. Once ignited, it creates what Thibodeau called a “thermal runaway,” which is incredibly challenging to control.

  “Once the battery goes into that state, stopping it is next to impossible,” Steffes said to reporters after the June 2021 fire.

  Confused Morris residents were quickly evacuated from neighborhoods close to the blaze and spent hours in hotel rooms, watching smoke fill the sky, and fearing for the safety of their homes.

  At that moment, residential Americans got an up close and personal look at lithium’s dark side.

  It wasn’t the first incident where lithium battery storage turned catastrophic, and it likely won’t be the last.

  Thibodeau says that while there’s no easy way to put out a lithium battery fire, having people properly trained on how to reduce the fire risks, combined with proper handling and storage, is a huge step in the right direction.

  Recycling EV batteries poses another significant hurdle. That’s due to a trifecta of complications including expense, existing capacity to handle demand, and the simple fact these batteries aren’t easy to recycle.

  “Currently, less than five percent of lithium batteries that reach the end of their lifespan are recycled,” a spokesperson for the carbon accounting group Greenly told The Epoch Times.

  The representative for Greenly went on to explain that though the potential for ramped up recycling exists, it’s not possible with lithium-ion batteries until they reach the end of their lifespan.

  “The industry hasn’t obtained the knowledge or experience necessary to learn how to recycle these batteries or maximize their usage beforehand,” they added.

  This is where second life applications come in, which can buy a non-defective EV battery an extra 10 years of life. It also essentially buys the burgeoning recycling companies time to catch up.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/09/2022 – 18:20

• How Will The European Energy Crisis Affect US Freight Markets
  How Will The European Energy Crisis Affect US Freight Markets

  By John Paul Hampstead of FreightWaves

  Volatility in European power markets stemming from EU and U.K. sanctions against Russian energy — imposed in retaliation for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February — may soon cool off, but only after carving a slice out of the continent’s economy. 

  

  On Monday, U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss announced plans to cap household energy bills at the equivalent of $2,300 annually. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz unveiled a 65 billion euro relief package to ease the pain of energy prices that have quadrupled in his country.

  These crisis measures are meant to reduce the economic damage caused by a continentwide natural gas supply crunch following the cancellation of Nord Stream 2 and Russia’s shutdown of Nord Stream 1. Historically high energy prices could sap consumers’ ability to spend money on other goods and services, dragging down economic growth.

  But last week, Goldman Sachs analyst Alberto Gandolfi wrote that his team did not think that the scope of the price caps being contemplated would be nearly enough to avert a 1970s-style energy crisis.

  “We see scope for the introduction of price caps in power generation, which we estimate could save Europe c.€650 bn pa,” Gandolfi wrote in a client note on Saturday. “Yet, price caps would not fully solve the affordability issue: the increase in energy bills would still be of +€1.3 tn, or c.10% of GDP, we estimate.”

  Europe’s economy was relatively healthy until the energy crisis, growing GDP by 3.9% year over year (y/y) or 0.6% quarter on quarter in the second quarter of 2022. But now the eurozone manufacturing PMI has slipped to 49.6, and the S&P Global Germany Composite PMI for August was revised lower to 46.9.

  Slowing economic growth in the EU has been exacerbated by high inflation, which hit 9.7% y/y in August. That has put a jumbo interest rate hike of 75 bps on the table as European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde meets with her colleagues in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, this week.

  Ocean container rates from Asia to Europe have already fallen dramatically this year — and have dropped especially sharply since the beginning of August.

  

  The Freightos Baltic Daily spot rate from China to North Europe, displayed in white in the chart above, has fallen 24% since July 3, from $10,397.55 per forty-foot equivalent unit to $7,869.10. Drewry’s spot rate from Shanghai to Rotterdam, Netherlands, displayed in green, dropped 18% over the same period, from $9,280 per FEU to $7,583.

  Those recent ocean container rate cuts came after the market had already been softening for months; container rates on the Asia-Europe trade peaked last October. The sudden, violent step-down in spot rates may indicate that the incremental goods spending is way off in Europe, and ocean carriers are starting to optimize for asset utilization rather than EBIT per shipment. 

  If the steamship lines follow their well-established playbook, their response to soft demand could be to trim capacity, switching out vessels on the main services with smaller ships and deploying those assets elsewhere. The problem is that they might not have anywhere to go: Trans-Pacific ocean container spot rates are also way down on softening demand.

  Upstream ocean container bookings data from FreightWaves Container Atlas reveals that European exports are set to slow markedly as well. Ocean container bookings outbound from Rotterdam to all global ports have experienced downward pressure since July:

  

  The Ocean Booking Volume Index from Rotterdam to all global ports is down by 25.4% since July 5, a sharp downward trend, albeit the index is still at an elevated level compared to pre-pandemic freight flows. Lead times out of Rotterdam run a little over 10 days, so the trend lines above reflect booking activity approximately 1.5 weeks ahead of the freight physically moving on a vessel. 

  The widely cited European Road Freight Rates Benchmark is at all-time highs but appears to be inclusive of fuel costs (diesel in the EU is up 69% since January). The Russian invasion of Ukraine has restricted the supply of truck drivers in Germany, where migrants make up 24% of the driver workforce, as Ukrainian men returned home to fight. European road freight analysts are betting that weakening economic growth will keep rates from rising higher.

  “The effect of rising costs in 2022 is now very evident with road freight rates across the European continent reaching new all-time highs,” wrote Transportation Insight economic analyst Nathaniel Donaldson. “Initial fuel price rises following the invasion of Ukraine have held and produced a much more costly environment for European road carriers whilst industrial action and a worsening driver shortage keep capacity tight. A range of indicators are pointing towards a drastic slowdown in consumption and production, which will ease further increases while high costs keep rates elevated.”

  The EU energy crisis has already taken a bite out of Europe’s consumption and production, weakening demand for transportation capacity in, through and out of the region. Recently announced fiscal relief measures will likely not be large enough to avert an acute economic slowdown, with knock-on effects for global transportation markets like ocean container freight.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/09/2022 – 17:40

• "End Of Days" Near As Illinois Set To Eliminate Cash Bail For Violent Offenders
  “End Of Days” Near As Illinois Set To Eliminate Cash Bail For Violent Offenders

  Progressive prosecutors and politicians have been enforcing radical criminal-justice policies across the country, often with little concern for real-world effects on the community. The latest is a “no cash bail” policy that will take effect in the new year for those charged with second-degree murder, aggravated battery, and arson in the State of Illinois. 

  The Counter Signal reported SAFE-T Act ends cash bail and includes 12 non-detainable offenses, second-degree murder, aggravated battery, and arson without bail, as well as drug-induced homicide, kidnapping, burglary, robbery, intimidation, aggravated DUI, aggravated fleeing and eluding, drug offenses and threatening a public official.

  After Jan. 1, individuals charged with the above crimes will be free to roam the streets without bail. 

  Will County State’s Attorney James Glasgow warned the “end of days” is coming in the new year when the bill takes effect. Will County is located in the northeastern part of the state and is the second largest county in the six-country Chicago metro area.

  Glasgow continued: SAFE-T Act “will destroy the city and the state of Illinois … and I don’t even understand (how) the people who support it can’t realize that.” 

  

  The new law also states who can be arrested: For example, someone trespassing on private property can be fined by police but not removed. Glasgow said police and judges would have their “hands tied” behind their backs. This will undoubtedly transform the county into a criminal paradise. 

  He said the violent crime and chaos seen in the metro area would swallow the county alive (and even the state): 

  “What you see in Chicago, we’ll have here.” 

  Even though the SAFE-T Act aims to overhaul the state’s criminal justice system and is designed to end ‘mass incarceration’ … critics of the new legislation are overwhelmingly alarmed that a plague of violent crime will spread across the state. 

  Last month, the Manhattan Institute reported that criminal justice reform in New York failed. The report clarifies that bail reform increased crime, and those subjected to violence were minorities. 

  A no-cash bail for the 12 offenses is another reason residents should leave the state. What could happen after the law goes into effect reminds us of scenes from the dystopian action horror film “The Purge.” 

  Get out of Illinois.
  It is way too dangerous to live or work there.

  The state legislature and Governor are insane to have passed this.

  🔈

  pic.twitter.com/F1kltV6QCK

  — Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) September 8, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Progressive criminal-justice policies have failed law-abiding citizens. No wonder people are arming up as violent crime spikes in America’s urban centers. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/09/2022 – 17:20

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• Adults Aged 35–44 Died At Twice The Expected Rate Last Summer, Life Insurance Data Suggests
  Adults Aged 35–44 Died At Twice The Expected Rate Last Summer, Life Insurance Data Suggests

  Authored by Margaret Menge via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Death claims for working-age adults under group life insurance policies spiked well beyond expected levels last summer and fall, according to data from 20 of the top 21 life insurance companies in the United States.

  

  Death claims for adults aged 35 to 44 were 100 percent higher than expected in July, August, and September 2021, according to a report by the Society of Actuaries, which analyzed 2.3 million death claims submitted to life insurance firms.

  The report looked at death claims filed under group life insurance policies during the 24 months of the COVID-19 pandemic, from April 2020 to March 2022. The researchers used data from the three years before the pandemic to set a baseline for the expected deaths.

  While COVID-19 played some role in the majority of the excess deaths for adults over the age of 34 during the two pandemic years, the opposite was true for younger people. For people 34 and younger, the number of excess non-COVID deaths was higher than those related to COVID, the data show.

  During the third quarter of last year, deaths in the 25-to-34 age bracket were 78 percent above the expected level and, for people aged 45 to 54, 80 percent higher than expected. Excess mortality was 53 percent above the baseline for adults aged 55 to 64.

  The Society of Actuaries (SOA) asked all 20 of the participating life insurance companies how they determine the cause of death for the purpose of recording claims. Of the 18 that responded, 17 said they list COVID-19 as the cause of death if it’s listed anywhere on the death certificate, while eight of the 18 said they go further and communicate with relatives and the medical examiner and look at other sources to try to determine the true cause of death.

  One life insurance company stated that it recorded COVID-19 as the cause of death only when it could be determined to be the primary cause of death on a death certificate.

  The report also notes that white-collar workers had the highest number of excess deaths during the two years studied. The group, which includes accountants, lawyers, computer programmers, and most other jobs done in an office setting, had 23 percent more deaths than expected.

  The sharp increase of deaths among working-age people was first brought to light by Scott Davison, CEO of the Indianapolis-based life insurance company OneAmerica, who said in a virtual press conference on Dec. 30, 2021, that his company and the life insurance industry as a whole was seeing a 40 percent increase in deaths among people ages 18 to 64.

  Davison said at the time that this represented the highest death rates in the history of the life insurance business, and that an increase in mortality of just 10 percent would constitute a “three-sigma” event, a once-in-200-year catastrophe.

  OneAmerica is one of the 20 companies that contributed data for the SOA report. The others include Aflac, Anthem, The Hartford, Lincoln Financial Group, MetLife, New York Life, and Principal Financial.

  Edward Dowd, a hedge fund manager who has been studying excess mortality for the past several months and has an upcoming book on the topic, Cause Unknown, says the rate of deaths among young people is alarming. He pointed out that excess deaths peaked around the time the Biden administration mandated COVID-19 vaccines and companies rushed to comply.

  “Temporally, in that three-month period, the change was such that, there was something that occurred,” he said. “Well, we all know what occurred in August, September, and October. It was Biden’s mandates on Sept. 9, and a lot of corporations anticipating those mandates.”

  President Joe Biden on Sept. 9, 2021, mandated COVID-19 vaccines for federal employees and health care workers in facilities certified by Medicare and Medicaid. The same day, the president tasked the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) with implementing a nationwide vaccine mandate on private businesses with 100 or more employees.

  

  The U.S. Supreme Court struck down the OSHA mandate in January but allowed the mandate for health care workers to remain in place.

  The campaign to vaccinate the majority of the population against COVID-19 is the largest vaccination campaign in the history of the world.

  As of Aug. 31, about 90 percent of Americans 18 or older had gotten at least the first dose of one of the COVID-19 vaccines, and 77 percent had gotten both a first and a second dose.

  Dr. Robert Malone, a physician and research scientist credited with the invention of the mRNA technology for use in vaccines, says excess mortality must always be studied to determine whether a vaccine or medicine really is safe.

  “Excess mortality should be a signal, a trigger,” he told The Epoch Times. “When we see excess mortality like that—basically if you’re running a clinical trial and you see this kind of excess mortality, you stop the trial. And you investigate the cause before you proceed. And if you’re marketing a drug, generally, with this kind of data, you stop the distribution of the drug until you have sorted it out.”

  

  Malone mentioned what he calls the “classic example” of thalidomide, a morning sickness medication prescribed to a small number of pregnant women in the United States in the late 1950s and early ’60s that was effective in treating morning sickness, but caused severe deformities in their unborn children.

  The drug maker had pressured the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to approve the drug, but the FDA refused, based on the deformities that had been reported.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 09/08/2022 – 23:40

• Taiwan Has The Fastest Internet In The World, USA Is 4th…
  Taiwan Has The Fastest Internet In The World, USA Is 4th…

  According to the cable.co.uk broadband speed league 2022, Taiwan is on top of the world when it comes to fast internet, with an average download speed of 135.88 Mbps – 13.55 more than second-placed Japan.

  As Statista’s Martin Armstrong details below, Asia features prominently at the top end of the rankings, with Singapore and Hong Kong also recording mean speeds of 100 Mbps+.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  For this infographic, we excluded places with populations of less than one million.

  When including all of the measured locations, Macao on the south coast of China has the fasted broadband on average, with a whopping 262.74 Mbps. In second place would be the small island of Jersey, located in the English Channel, with 256.59 Mbps.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 09/08/2022 – 23:20

• Homeland Security May Have Allowed Dangerous, Unvetted Afghans Into US: Inspector General
  Homeland Security May Have Allowed Dangerous, Unvetted Afghans Into US: Inspector General

  Authored by Naveen Anthrapully via The Epoch Times,

  During the evacuation of Afghanistan from July 2021 to January 2022, the United States brought nearly 80,000 Afghan citizens into the United States, but the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) failed to fully vet some of the evacuees, potentially allowing individuals who pose a national security risk into the country, according to a recent report.

  

  The DHS Office of Inspector General (OIG) conducted an audit to determine the extent to which the DHS screened, vetted, and inspected the evacuees.

  “We determined some information used to vet evacuees through U.S. Government databases, such as name, date of birth, identification number, and travel document data were inaccurate, incomplete, or missing,” the OIG said in its Sept. 6 report (pdf).

  “We also determined [Customs and Border Patrol] admitted or paroled evacuees who were not fully vetted into the United States.” As a consequence, the DHS may have admitted individuals into the country who pose a risk to national security and threaten the safety of local communities, the OIG warned.

  The audit found that of the 88,977 evacuee records inspected, 417 did not have first names, 242 did not have last names, and 11,110 had their date of birth recorded as Jan. 1.

  In addition, 7,800 records had missing or invalid travel document numbers while 36,400 records had a “facilitation document” as the travel document type. During the audit, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) could not define what the “facilitation document” was.

  One evacuee paroled into the United States by CBP was earlier liberated from an Afghan prison by the Taliban. Another evacuee paroled into the country posed national security concerns. CBP allowed 35 evacuees to board a flight to the United States even though they lacked a green status card required for travel.

  Admitting Potential Threats

  During a recent daily briefing, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre insisted that the DHS OIG report did not take into account the “rigorous, multilayered screening, and vetting process” the Biden administration took. However, an earlier Department of Defense (DOD) report and whistleblower claims support the OIG report.

  A Pentagon audit of the civilian evacuation effort in Afghanistan released in February warned about potentially dangerous individuals being brought into the United States.

  The DOD National Ground Intelligence Center (NGIC) identified “50 Afghan personnel in the United States with information in DoD records that would indicate potentially significant security concerns” in its February 2022 audit report (pdf).

  One whistleblower claimed that the DOD failed to properly vet 324 Afghan evacuees who appeared on the department’s Biometrically Enabled Watchlist that includes suspected terrorists.

  In August 2022, U.S. Sens. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) and Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) urged the DOD to investigate the whistleblower allegations.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 09/08/2022 – 23:00

• Iran Unveils New Stealth Combat Vessel With Vertical-Launch Missiles
  Iran Unveils New Stealth Combat Vessel With Vertical-Launch Missiles

  A new Iranian-built advanced tech combat patrol vessel has just been put into service by the IRGC Navy. Iran’s military is claiming that the vessel, named the “Shahid Soleimani” – has a stealth capable body and design, giving it “radar-evading stealth technology, meaning that it has a very low level of radar cross-section,” state sources say.

  According to Bloomberg, citing state media, the vessel is the country’s first to be equipped with a “vertical launch, short- and medium-range air defense system” – and was unveiled at a Monday ceremony at the port city of Bandar Abbas, overseen by Major General Mohammad Bagheri, the Chief of General Staff of the Armed Forces, and IRGC chief Hossein Salami.

  

  The Shahid Soleimani is further being touted as capable of possessing higher maneuverability and smaller radius of rotation given the unique designed, compared to ships of similar size. Bagheri described of the new naval vessel, “The design and construction of this vessel was done by the elite youth and university graduates of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and it has a stealth-equipped body with a very low radar cross section, which can be considered as a national achievement for the country.”

  Earlier this summer, as construction was being completed, the naval analysis site USNI News previewed the following capabilities based on available radar images of the vessel seen from overhead: 

  These missile boats offer more conventional capabilities than the myriad of small boats operated by the IRGC-N. They could operate as command vessels for swarms of smaller boats armed with rockets, torpedoes, mines, lightweight anti-ship missiles and drones. They could also operate independently, offering a longer-range arm of the IRGC. Either way, the two new types of catamaran are likely to spearhead the IRGC-N’s modernization.

  While Iran struggles to build larger warships and incorporate modern weapon systems, it continues to innovate and modernize in other fields. Its ballistic missiles are treated with respect, as are its drones and cruise missiles. Iran can build submarines and, now, modern missile corvettes.

  Additionally this week Bagheri issued fresh warnings to the United States and Israel, citing the Iranian navy’s ability to secure the strategic Strait of Hormuz. The top general said in addressing naval officers:

  “Also, the Zionist regime’s joining the terrorist U.S. Army’s Central Command can create threats for us. We do not tolerate Zionism, and in addition to protesting through the country’s foreign policy apparatus, we declare that we will not tolerate such development of espionage and creating threats, and we will not make any compromises regarding the rights of the Iranian nation and the security of our seas and land.”

  First Video of IRGC Navy Shahid Soleimani class catamaran corvette.
  The vessel is claimed to have VLS for AD missiles with 150 km range. A helipad with Bell-206 helicopter and crane for supporting IRGC fast attack crafts can be seen at the first glance. pic.twitter.com/e8eypVIKV4

  — Mehdi H. (@mhmiranusa) September 5, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The remarks came a day after the United States flew two nuclear-capable B-52H Stratofortresses over the Middle East on Sunday in a message aimed at Tehran. Three Israeli F-16 fighter jets had briefly joined the US mission as the bombers made their way “through Israel’s skies on their way to the (Persian) Gulf,” the Associated Press reported. 

  Last week the US and Iran had multiple encounters and intercept incidents in the Gulf region, with the Iranians claiming to have seized and then let go of several US sea drones. The second Friday incident took place in the Red Sea, involving the intervention of a US warship and helicopter which forced an Iranian patrol to release a pair of seized small surface vessels seized earlier the same day.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 09/08/2022 – 22:40

• Xi Doubles Down On COVID-Zero Before Party Congress
  Xi Doubles Down On COVID-Zero Before Party Congress

  By Jacob Gu, Bloomberg Markets Live analyst and reporter

  China’s tightening of Covid-fighting measures has diminished hope that the ruling Communist Party may start relaxing the rigorous restrictions after it concludes its 20th Party Congress in October. Doubling down on the Covid Zero policy may not only cause more pain in the already struggling economy, but also undermine confidence among investors and the general public, something former Premier Wen Jiabao has said is “more important than gold and money.”

  The nation’s National Health Commission (NHC) on Thursday announced a raft of new measures in its fight against the Covid-19 virus, including asking people to minimize travel during the Mid-Autumn Festival next week and National Day holidays in October. People traveling via airplanes and railways will need to present negative PCR test results within 48 hours prior to boarding. They must show proof of a negative test within 72 hours when checking into hotels and visiting tourist attractions.

  In a reversal of its guidance in June, the NHC now requires all regions to conduct regular PCR testing, regardless of whether they have outbreaks or not. Previously, the authorities refuted such tests as unnecessary.

  The new measures, which start on Sept. 10 and end on Oct 31, seem to be designed for minimizing outbreak risks before the Party Congress scheduled for mid-October.

  To some China watchers, such as Nomura’s economist Ting Lu, the Covid Zero policy is unlikely to change until at least 2023 because Beijing may either extend or reintroduce these measures after October. It’s partly due to the calendar: the virus is more infectious during the winter; millions of people will travel during the Chinese New Year holidays in January; and the once-in-a-decade central government reshuffling is due at the National People’s Congress’s annual session in March.

  Market sentiment is already poor. The CSI 300 Index tracking companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen ended a two-day advance. Chinese shares traded in the US tumbled.

  Even before the new rules were announced, economists were already busy lowering forecasts for China’s economy. Nomura this week cut its forecast for 2022 growth to 2.7% from 2.8%. On Thursday, Barclays lowered its growth estimate to 2.6% from 3.1%, citing challenges including Covid lockdowns. Of 78 market participants polled by Bloomberg, 25 now see China’s growth below 3% this year.

  The Covid policy is increasingly unpopular among some Chinese and it’s politically sensitive. On Wednesday, Huatai Financial Holdings (HK) published a report saying an analysis of pandemic data in Asia suggests that the death rate from Covid variant BA.5 is lower than that of influenza. The report, co-authored by chief economist Eva Yi and analyst Xun Zhu, went viral on social media before Huatai shelved the analysis, even though it didn’t comment on Beijing’s policy.

  Nobody is expecting the strict rules to be removed before the Party Congress. But political and policy finesse will be in urgent need afterward to save the economy and restore confidence following the prolonged quixotic fight against Covid, before it’s too late.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 09/08/2022 – 22:20

• It Appears Money Can Buy Happiness After All…
  It Appears Money Can Buy Happiness After All…

  Throughout history, the pursuit of happiness has been a preoccupation of humankind.

  Of course, we humans are not just content with measuring our own happiness, but also our happiness in relation to the people around us – and even other people around the world. The annual World Happiness Report, which uses global survey data to report how people evaluate their own lives in more than 150 countries, helps us do just that.

  The factors that contribute to happiness are as subjective and specific as the billions of humans they influence, but there are a few that have continued to resonate over time.

  Family.

  Love.

  Purpose.

  Wealth.

  As Visual Capitalist’s Nick Routley details below, the first three examples are tough to measure, but the latter can be analyzed in a data-driven way.

  Does money really buy happiness? Let’s find out…

  Wealth and Happiness

  To crunch the numbers, we looked at data from Credit Suisse, which breaks down the average wealth per adult in various countries around the world.

  The chart below looks at 146 countries by their happiness score and wealth per adult:

  

  While the results don’t definitively point to wealth contributing to happiness, there is a strong correlation across the board. Broadly speaking, the world’s poorest countries have the lowest happiness scores, and the richest report being the most happy.

  Regional and Country-Level Observations

  While many of the countries follow an obvious trend (more wealth = more happiness), there are nuances and outliers worth exploring.

  • In Latin America, people self-report more happiness than the trend between wealth and happiness would predict.

  • On the flip side, many nations in the Middle East report slightly less happiness than levels of wealth would predict.

  • Political turmoil, an economic crisis, and the devastating explosion in Beirut have resulted in Lebanon scoring far worse than would be expected. Over the past decade, the country’s score has fallen by nearly two full points.

  • Hong Kong has seen its happiness score sink for years now. Inequality, protests, instability, and now COVID-19 outbreaks have placed the region in an unusual zone on the chart: rich and unhappy.

  Examining Inequality and Happiness

  We’ve looked at the relationship between wealth and happiness between countries, but what about within countries?

  The Gini Coefficient is a tool that allows us to do just that. This measure looks at income distribution across a population, and applies a score to that population. Simply put, a score of 0 would be “perfect equality”, and 1 would be “perfect inequality” (i.e. an individual or group of recipients is receiving the entire income distribution).

  Combined with the same happiness scale as before, this is how countries shape up.

  

  While there is no ironclad conclusion that can be derived from this dataset, there are big picture observations worth highlighting.

  The 5 Countries With Highest Income Inequality

  

  First, countries with lower income inequality tend to also report more happiness. The 5 countries in this dataset with the highest inequality (shown above) have an average happiness score 1.3 lower than the 5 countries with the lowest inequality (shown below).

  The 5 Countries With Lowest Income Inequality

  

   

  Next, interesting regional differences emerge.

   

  Despite high income inequality, many Latin American countries report levels of happiness similar to many much-wealthier European nations.

  The Bottom Line

  People have been seeking understanding on happiness for millennia now, and it’s unlikely that slicing and dicing datasets will crack the code. Still though, much like the pursuit of happiness, the pursuit of understanding is human nature.

  And, in more concrete terms, the more policymakers and the public understand the link between wealth and happiness, the more likely we can shape societies that give us a better chance at living a happy life.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 09/08/2022 – 22:00

• Texas Sees Record 25.6% Tax-Revenue Surge Amid High Inflation
  Texas Sees Record 25.6% Tax-Revenue Surge Amid High Inflation

  Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Tax revenue in Texas grew by a record 25.6 percent for the 2022 fiscal year through August, according to the latest tax collection data released by the state Comptroller of Public Accounts, Glenn Hegar.

  

  All-funds tax collection for fiscal year 2022 until August came in at $77.2 billion, beating projections made in the Certification Revenue Estimate by nearly $841 million, the data show.

  Since 1988, the growth in the all-funds tax collections has exceeded the prior fiscal year by double digits just five times. And even then, the increases were only in the range of 10 to 13 percent. The 26 percent increase in fiscal 2022 until August is almost double the largest increase seen since 1988.

  In a Sept. 1 press release, Hegar credited the higher sales tax collections to economic growth and inflation. As demand remains strong, both individuals and businesses continue to pay elevated prices for goods, he pointed out.

  State sales tax receipts tend to spike during periods of high inflation. The 12-month Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of annual inflation, has remained above 7 percent for every single month in 2022, hitting a peak of 9.1 percent in June.

  The CPI was only at 1.4 percent in January 2021 when President Joe Biden took office. In a recently published survey conducted by The Dallas Morning News and the University of Texas at Tyler, 48 percent of respondents blamed Biden and Congress for inflation and the rising cost of living.

  Texas does not have a corporate income tax or state income tax meaning the state is highly reliant on sales taxes for its revenue. Sales tax accounts for 56 percent of all tax collections in Texas and is the largest source of government funding.

  Sector-Wise Tax, Future Collections

  “The strong growth in August came from receipts remitted by the oil and gas mining sector, which were up by nearly 80 percent compared with a year ago,” Hegar said in the release.

  “Receipts from the construction, manufacturing, and wholesale trade sectors showed double-digit growth for the ninth consecutive month, demonstrating continued strong spending by businesses in the state.”

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 09/08/2022 – 21:40

• These Are The World's Most-Searched Consumer Brands In 2022
  These Are The World’s Most-Searched Consumer Brands In 2022

  In today’s fast-paced world, a strong brand is a powerful asset that helps a business stand out in a sea of competition.

  What are some of the most popular brands around the world? One way to gauge this is by looking at Google searches to see what consumers are searching for online (and therefore, what brands they’re paying the most attention to).

  As Visual Capitalist’s Carmen Ang details below, this graphic by BusinessFinancing.co.uk uses data from Google Keyword Planner to show the world’s most searched consumer brands in the twelve months leading up to March 2022.

  

  Methodology

  To source this wide of a dataset, the team at BusinessFinancing.co.uk first compiled a list of well-known brands, using a number of reputable sources including Forbes, the Financial Times, BrandDirectory, and more.

  From there, the team created a shortlist of popular consumer brands. This year, they focused on businesses that sell products and services, so some of the big tech companies like Google and Meta were excluded from the 2022 ranking.

  Next, the team used Google Ads API to extract search volume data for the shortlisted brands. They looked at a couple of things:

  • The monthly average of searches over the last 12 months for the brand name alone (e.g. “Nike”)
  • Brand name with the corresponding sector added to the keyword (“Nike clothing”), which helped offset the skew in search volume for generic terms like “Apple” or “Amazon”

  They did this for every country in the world with data available. Here’s what they found.

  The Top 5 Most Searched Brands

  While Netflix is the most frequently searched brand in the highest number of countries (92), Amazon takes the top spot when it comes to total search volume.

  Here’s a look at the top five most search brands by average global monthly searches:

  

   

  But a brand’s search popularity doesn’t necessarily reflect that the business is thriving. For instance, in April 2022, Netflix announced it had lost around 200,000 subscribers throughout Q1.

   

  The week of the announcement, Netflix’s stock price dipped below $200—the lowest it had been since 2017.

  Smartphones

  Apple and its iPhone take the top spot when it comes to smartphone searches, which may be unsurprisingly considering the top five best-selling smartphones in 2021 were all iPhones.

  

  View the high resolution of this infographic by clicking here.

  It’s worth noting that the top five best-selling smartphones only capture a fraction of the overall smartphone market, and while iPhones are undeniably popular, they only make up 16.7% of worldwide smartphone sales.

  Gaming

  Epic Games, the creator and platform of Fortnite, maintains its status as the most searched-for gaming brand worldwide, with an average of 14.9 million global monthly searches.

  

  View the high resolution of this infographic by clicking here.

  No other gaming company came close to Epic Game’s search volume. For instance, Nintendo, which came in second place, only averaged 3.2 million searches a month.

  However, Nintendo still managed to generate more than $16 billion in revenue throughout 2021, triple the gross revenue that Epic Games made the same year.

  Fast Food

  KFC was the most searched fast-food company in more than 83 countries, making it the most popular worldwide.

  

  View the high resolution of this infographic by clicking here.

  However, it’s worth noting that, while McDonald’s ranked first in fewer countries, it had a higher global monthly search average than its fried chicken competitor.

  In 2021, KFC generated approximately $2.79 billion in global revenue, while McDonald’s brought in $23.2 billion.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 09/08/2022 – 21:20

• The "Correct" Attitude About The War In Ukraine
  The “Correct” Attitude About The War In Ukraine

  Authored by Finn Andreen via The Mises Institute,

  There are themes in the West that are difficult to question without running the risk of receiving sharp criticism. For the following themes, for example, there is a position considered “correct” by Western collective opinion: “Welfare State,” “climate policy,” “multicultural society,” or “covid-19 vaccination.”

  It is implied that the “acceptable” position to each one of these themes can and should be adopted without any prior critical analysis at the individual level.

  The list of these themes is not static; new ones rise to prominence in society, while others become less important over time. In recent years two new themes have emerged: “authoritarian Russia” and “communist China,” which is not surprising considering that Washington, and thus, by extension. the West, has decided to treat these two nations as strategic enemies.

  

  A recent study shows, for example, that in a very short time the percentage of Americans with a negative view of China increased dramatically, from 46 percent to 67 percent. This is not a coincidence, but the result of a media communication strategy.

  The Critique of the Antiwar Position

  As far as Russia is concerned, the “correct” attitude to have in the West, especially since the start of the Ukraine conflict on February 24, 2022, is no less than an absolute condemnation of that country. Support for Ukraine must be comprehensive and can receive social confirmation by a small blue and yellow flag on Facebook. Unconditional support for the economic war waged by Western leaders against Russia is also socially required for Europeans, even though they will be the first to suffer from it.

  It is for this reason that the Amnesty International report of August 4, 2022, which confirmed that “Ukrainian forces putting civilians at risk and violating the laws of war when they operate in populated areas” became a media bomb, not only in Ukraine but also in the West. This report disturbs a lot of people because it is not in line with the black and white view of Russia as a criminal aggressor and Ukraine as an innocent victim.

  The people who do not take the “correct” stance on the conflict in Ukraine are often accused of being “pro-Russian,” even when this stance simply consists in being objective; by considering the recent history and behavior of the various protagonists. They are considered “pro-Russian” because they do not express unconditional support for Ukraine, but more often, propose conditions for peace. Indeed, the position of most of these critics is not at all “pro-Russian,” but “pro-peace” by supporting active Western efforts to reach a ceasefire, thus sparing as many Ukrainian lives as possible.

  Western media did not react when, on July 14, 2022, the Ukrainian government published a black list of Western politicians, academics, and activists who, according to Kiev, “promote Russian propaganda.” This list includes leading Western intellectuals and politicians, such as Republican Senator Rand Paul, former Democratic Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, military and geopolitical analyst Edward N. Luttwak, the political realist John Mearsheimer, and award-winning freelance journalist Glenn Greenwald.

  Though this Ukrainian blacklist should obviously have been condemned in the West, it has hardly elicited any reactions at all, because the Western media already agree with its conclusion: the people on the list are already criticized in their own countries for not adopting the pro-Ukrainian position. Moreover, would the Ukrainian government have dared to publish such a list if it had not had the prior agreement of Washington?

  The Formation of the Collective Opinion

  What is happening in the case of the attitude toward Russia, as well as in the other themes mentioned above, is not surprising or new. In his famous work, On Liberty (1859), John Stuart Mill is perhaps today best known for his prescient early warning of the dangers of the “collective opinion”; the “tyranny of the majority” in the form of “the dominant opinions and feelings that society is trying to impose” on a minority.

  Society’s majority is naturally intolerant of nonconformism, because thinking like everyone else gives psychological comfort and strengthens social ties. Yet, though society depends on collective opinion for its social cohesion, paradoxically it also depends for its well-being on views that run counter to this majority opinion. Just as natural science progresses only through the sometimes tortuous but generally respectful process of peer review, society also needs minority opinions and dissident voices to curb the permanent search for consensus on the part of the majority.

  But minority opinions will suffocate if there is no deeper understanding of Mill’s idea. Fortunately, this understanding exists today. To Mill’s “collective opinion” were added fundamental sociological concepts, such as “crowd psychology” (Gustave Le Bon, 1895), the “political formula” (Gaetano Mosca, 1923), “propaganda” (Edward Bernays, 1928), the “role of the intellectuals” (F.A. Hayek, 1949), the “banality of evil” (H. Arendt, 1963), the “manufacturing of consent” (Chomsky and Herman, 1988), and recently the concept of “mass formation psychosis” (Matthias Desmet).

  This accumulated knowledge in the reference above leaves no doubt about the will and the ability of Western political and financial elites to form and direct collective opinion through the control that they exert explicitly and implicitly on the editorial boards of traditional media and on social media platforms. The development of the opinions of Western majorities to the themes mentioned at the beginning of this article is largely the result of these elites” influence on Western public opinion. The collective opinion with respect to climate change is probably the most glaring example of this influence today, considering the significant economic consequences that it will have for Western society.

  Libertarianism Is the Only Solution

  Political globalization, an antiliberal process which has been underway for several decades, has the effect of aligning national political centers and thus reducing plurality. Gradually, Western political power is flowing toward supranational institutions (like the UN, the EU, the World Economic Forum). This centralization of political power, and the resulting economic concentration of business, including concentration of media groups that this has entailed enables and facilitates the formation of public opinion by the Western elites.

  The political philosophy that theoretically is best placed to solve this dilemma of modern society is libertarianism, because it clearly argues for a significant and definitive reduction of political power, both nationally and internationally.

  One of the strengths of libertarianism is precisely the importance it places on the cultural and intellectual plurality of a free society. This is the famous “marketplace of ideas” which, like the free market in goods and services, can only exist partially with the pervasive crony capitalism and massive State intervention that most Western societies are subject to today. In a free society, that is, a highly decentralized society with a weak State having at most a night watchman role, the formation of public opinion by political elites then becomes impossible.

  The present moment in history represents a particular threat to freedom, because the ruling globalist elites now have an unprecedented opportunity to shape the attitudes and opinions of their societies, in their own, often twisted, interests. At the same time, the new and easy access by the general public to alternative analyses and independent information, can counteract this nefarious trend. In these social conditions, Western voices of freedom must continue to present libertarianism, not only for its economic benefits but also as a means of liberating Western peoples from the chains of directed collective opinion.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 09/08/2022 – 21:00

• "Really A Desperate Time": Summer Drought Wreaks Havoc Across Northeast Farmland
  “Really A Desperate Time”: Summer Drought Wreaks Havoc Across Northeast Farmland

  Drought conditions expanded and intensified over the Northeast this summer, according to the latest report from the US Drought Monitor. 

  Extreme drought plagues eastern Massachusetts, including Boston, and southern and eastern Rhode Island. A severe drought is more widespread, encompassing much of South Jersey up to the coastal area of Maine. Much of the Northeast is in abnormally dry conditions as of Thursday. 

  

  The emergence of the Northeast drought comes as the US West experiences a historic megadrought threatening supplies of fresh water, food, and hydropower. 

  

  As of Tuesday, not a single county in Connecticut, Massachusetts, or Rhode Island is free of drought (and or dry conditions). This will impact the summer’s growing season and may shrink crop yields.

  In Rhode Island, farmers who can typically harvest hay three times in a season are expected to do so only once this year. Because each harvest varies in quality and size, that means losing about half the value of the entire crop, estimated Henry Wright, who grows about 300 acres (121 hectares) of hay and corn. 

  The fields are in such poor condition that as the season winds down, Wright is unlikely to be able reseed in the fall. He’ll have to wait until next year, shortening the growing season. He expects the 2023 hay crop to be only 10% to 20% of normal. 

  “It’s just not going to happen,” said Wright, who’s also president of the Rhode Island Farm Bureau. “This is really a desperate time.”

  In parts of Massachusetts in late August, the Charles River, which runs along Harvard University’s campus and is the site of a world-renowned annual rowing competition, shrank to a trickle. Near the Cochrane Dam on the border of the towns of Needham and Dover, the river mainly became a series of disconnected puddles and pools. 

  In Rhode Island, “we had fairly normal rainfall through June, then it just dropped off the edge of a table,” said Ken Ayars, chief of the agriculture and forest environment division at the state Department of Environmental Management.

  The drought is also affecting the quality of the feed that’s available, which will impact how much milk the cows produce. And because cows don’t sweat, they don’t do well in the heat, which can further affect their milk supply. Osofsky expects the herd’s output to be down about a fifth this year, shaving 20% off his annual profit of $300,000 to $400,000. And that’s excluding the additional expense of buying feed. 

  “The whole dairy game is milk,” Osofsky said. “It’s making as much milk as we can as cheaply as we can. So this has made it terribly expensive to do.” — Bloomberg 

  The drought has also impacted some drinking water reservoirs across New Jersey. In July, the Murphy administration asked New Jersey residents and businesses to conserve water due to moderate to severe drought impacting parts of the state. The water crisis appears worse further north. 

  The drought has impacted farmers and their crops in Connecticut, meanwhile in Massachusetts over 100 towns and cities have put in place water restriction due to low flow on local rivers. We’ll cover all that today at 2pm on @NBCNewsNow @NBC10Boston @NBCConnecticut @TelemundoNI pic.twitter.com/09veGssLvE

  — Grace Gómez (@GraceGomez) September 2, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “The scene of the Charles is bad — but unfortunately not unique in Massachusetts.” Across the state, drought has severely impacted local rivers, particularly Boston’s own Charles River.
  How the Charles River is being affected by drought – The Boston Globe
  At Millennium Park in… pic.twitter.com/f2FTRDTBOt

  — Melissa Green (@Melissa67773819) September 1, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Brad Rippey, a meteorologist with the US Department of Agriculture, said a high-pressure system above the Northeast had been the source of the dryness. He said the system blocked storms from coming into the region, contributing to less rainfall. 

  Rippey said 40% of the US is consumed in a drought. A protracted La Niña weather pattern has meant hotter and drier weather conditions in the West. 

  The odds of La Nina sticking around through January are now 80%, up from 72% a month ago, according to a new forecast by the US Climate Prediction Center. This could be the third time since 1950 when the weather phenomenon occurred in three consecutive years. 

  

  So is La Nina to blame for chaotic weather patterns across the US, or is it “climate change” as the mainstream media is hellbent on convincing the masses the world is headed for climate doom? 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 09/08/2022 – 20:40

• Greenpeace Co-Founder Patrick Moore Says Climate Change Based On False Narratives
  Greenpeace Co-Founder Patrick Moore Says Climate Change Based On False Narratives

  Authored by Lee Yun-Jeong via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Patrick Moore, one of the founders of Greenpeace, said in an email obtained by The Epoch Times that his reasons for leaving Greenpeace were very clear: “Greenpeace was ‘hijacked’ by the political left when they realized there was money and power in the environmental movement. [Left-leaning] political activists in North America and Europe changed Greenpeace from a science-based organization to a political fundraising organization,” Moore said.

  

  Moore left Greenpeace in 1986, 15 years after he co-founded the organization.

  “The ‘environmental’ movement has become more of a political movement than an environmental movement,” he said. “They are primarily focused on creating narratives, stories, that are designed to instill fear and guilt into the public so the public will send them money.”

  He said they mainly operate behind closed doors with other political operatives at the U.N., World Economic Forum, and so on, all of which are primarily political in nature.

  The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] is “not a science organization,” he said. “It is a political organization composed of the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Program.

  “The IPCC hires scientists to provide them with ‘information’ that supports the ‘climate emergency’ narrative.

  Their campaigns against fossil fuels, nuclear energy, CO2, plastic, etc., are misguided and designed to make people think the world will come to an end unless we cripple our civilization and destroy our economy. They are now a negative influence on the future of both the environment and human civilization.”

  “Today, the left has adopted many policies that would be very destructive to civilization as they are not technically achievable. Only look at the looming energy crisis in Europe and the UK, which Putin is taking advantage of. But it is of their own making in refusing to develop their own natural gas resources, opposing nuclear energy, and adopting an impossible position on fossil fuels in general,” Moore wrote.

  The Left ‘Hijacked’ Greenpeace

  

  He said “green” for the environment and “peace” for the people were the organization’s founding principles, but peace was largely forgotten, and green had become the sole agenda.

  “Many [so-called] ‘environmental’ leaders were now saying that ‘humans are the enemies of the Earth, the enemies of Nature.’ I could not accept that humans are the only evil species. This is too much like ‘original sin,’ that humans are born with evil, but all the other species are good, even cockroaches, mosquitos, and diseases,” Moore argued.

  He said the new dominant philosophy is that the world would be better if fewer people existed.

  “But the people who said this were not volunteering to be the first to go away. They behave as if they are superior to others. This kind of ‘pride’ and ‘conceit’ is the worst of the Cardinal Sins,” Moore said.

  Environmental Activist

  As a prominent scholar, ecologist, and long-time leader in the international environmental field, Patrick Moore is widely regarded as one of the world’s most qualified experts on the environment. He is also a founder of Greenpeace, the world’s largest environmental activist organization.

  Moore received his Ph.D. in Ecology from the University of British Columbia in 1974 and an Honorary Doctorate of Science from North Carolina State University in 2005.

  

  He co-founded Greenpeace in 1971 and served as president of Greenpeace Canada for nine years. From 1979 to 1986, Moore served as the Director of Greenpeace International, a driving force shaping the group’s policies and directions. During his 15-year tenure, Greenpeace became the world’s largest environmental activist organization.

  In 1991, Moore founded Greenspirit, a consultancy focusing on environmental policies, energy, climate change, biodiversity, genetically modified food, forests, fisheries, food, and resources.

  Between 2006 and 2012, Moore served as co-chairman of the Clean and Safe Energy Coalition, a U.S.-based environmental advocacy group.

  In 2014, he was appointed Chairman of Ecology, Energy, and Prosperity of Frontier Centre for Public Policy, a non-partisan Canadian public policy think tank.

  In 2019 and 2020, Moore served as the Chair of CO2 Coalition, a U.S.-based nonprofit environmental advocacy group dedicated to disputing false claims on CO2 as relates to climate change.

  False Narrative on Chlorine

  “At the time I decided to leave Greenpeace, I was one of 6 Directors of Greenpeace International. I was the only one with formal science education, BSc Honors in Science and Forestry, and Ph.D. in Ecology. My fellow directors decided that Greenpeace should begin a campaign to ‘Ban Chlorine Worldwide.’”

  Moore said it is true that elemental chlorine gas is highly toxic and was used as a weapon in World War I. However, chlorine is one of the 94 [naturally-ocurring] elements on the Periodic Table and has many roles in biology and human health. For example, table salt (NaCl or Sodium Chloride) is an essential nutrient for all animals and many plants. It is impossible to “ban” NaCl.

  

  He pointed out that adding chlorine to drinking water, swimming pools, and spas was one of the most significant advances in public health history in preventing the spread of water-borne communicable diseases such as cholera. And about 85 percent of pharmaceutical drugs are made with chlorine-related chemistry, and about 25 percent of all our medicines contain chlorine. All halogens, including chlorine, bromine, and iodine, are powerful antibiotics; without them, medicine would not be the same.

  “Greenpeace named chlorine ‘The Devil’s Element’ and calls PVC, polyvinyl chloride, or simply vinyl, ‘the Poison Plastic.’ All of this is fake [and] to scare the public. In addition, this misguided policy reinforces the attitude that humans are not a worthy species and that the world would be better off without them. I could not convince my fellow Greenpeace directors to abandon this misguided policy. This was the turning point for me,” Moore said.

  False Narrative on Polar Bears

  When asked how Greenpeace utilizes its massive donations, Moore said it was used to pay for “a very large staff” (likely over 2,000), extensive advertisements, and fundraising programs. And virtually all of the organization’s ads for fundraising are based on false narratives, which he had thoroughly disproven in his books, one example being the polar bears.

  

  “The International Treaty on Polar Bears, signed by all polar countries in 1973, to ban unrestricted hunting of polar bears, is never mentioned in the media, Greenpeace, or politicians who say the polar bear is going extinct due to melting ice in the Arctic. In fact, the polar bear population has increased from 6,000 to 8,000 in 1973 to 30,000 to 50,000 today. This is not disputed,” Moore said.

  “But now they say the polar bear will go extinct in 2100 as if they have a magic crystal ball that can predict the future. In fact, this past winter in the Arctic saw an expansion of ice from previous years, and Antarctica was colder during the last winter than in the past 50 years.”

  Moore said that he does not pretend to know everything and predict the future with confidence like many in the “climate emergency” business claim they can do.

  The Goal of the ‘Environmental Apocalypse’ Theory

  “I believe the human population has always been vulnerable to people who predict doom with false stories,” Moore said.

  “The Aztecs threw virgins into volcanos, and the Europeans and Americans burned women as witches for 200 years claiming this would ‘save the world’ from evil people. This has been [referred to as] ‘herd mentality,’ ‘groupthink,’ and ‘cult behavior.’ Humans are social animals with a hierarchy, and it is easiest to gain a high position by using fear and control.”

  Moore said the environmental apocalypse theory is mostly about “political power and control,” adding that he is dedicated to showing people that the situation is not as negative as they are told.

  “Today, in the richest countries, our descendants are making decisions that our grandchildren will have to pay for,” he said. “Predictions that the world is coming to an end have been made for thousands of years. Not once has this come true. Why should we believe it now?”

  “People are naturally afraid of the future because it is unknown and full of risks and difficult decisions. I believe there is also an element of ‘self-loathing’ in this apocalypse movement.”

  Moore said the young generation today is taught that humans are not worthy and are destroying the earth. This indoctrination has made them feel guilty and ashamed of themselves, which is the wrong way to go about life.

  The Demonization of Carbon Dioxide

  “Very few people believe the world is not warming. The record is clear that the world has been warming since about the year 1700, 150 years before we were using fossil fuels. 1700 was the peak of the Little Ice Age, which was very cold and caused crop failures and starvation. Before that, around 1000 A.D. was the Medieval Warm period when Vikings farmed Greenland. [And] before that, around 500 A.D. were the Dark Ages, and before that, the Roman Warm Period when it was warmer than today, and the sea level was 1–2 meters higher than today,” Moore said.

  

  “Even until about 1950, the amount of fossil fuel used and CO2 emitted were very small compared to today. We do not know the cause of these periodic fluctuations in temperature, but it was certainly not CO2.”

  Moore clarified that the “minority opinion” is not about the history of the Earth’s temperature, but it is the relationship between the temperature and CO2 that is at the center of the dispute.

  “In this regard, I agree that many believe CO2 is the main cause of warming. CO2 is invisible, so no one can actually see what it is doing. And this ‘majority’ are mainly scientists paid by politicians and bureaucrats, media making headlines, or activists making money. [The rest are] the public who believe this story even though they can’t actually see what CO2 is doing,” Moore said.

  Moore provided a graph of temperature continuously measured over 350 years (from 1659 to 2009) in central England. “If carbon dioxide was the main cause of warming, then there should be a rise in temperature along the carbon dioxide curve, but it doesn’t,” he explained.

  

  Moore described the demonization of CO2 as “completely ridiculous.” He added that CO2 is the basis of all life on Earth and its concentration in the atmosphere today, even with the increase, is lower than it has been for a large majority of life’s existence.

  Rising CO2 Correlates With Increased Plantation: Study

  A study in 2013 found that increased levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) have helped boost green foliage across the world’s arid regions over the past 30 years.

  

  The Australian government agency CSIRO conducted the research in collaboration with Australian National University (ANU). The data was based on satellite observations from the year 1982 to 2010 across parts of the arid areas in Australia, North America, the Middle East, and Africa.

  It found an 11 percent increase in foliage cover in the studied area due to what’s called “CO2 fertilization.”

  The study said a fertilization effect occurs when elevated CO2 levels enable a leaf during photosynthesis—the process by which green plants convert sunlight into sugar—to extract more carbon from the air or lose less water to the air or both.

  “If elevated CO2 causes the water use of individual leaves to drop, plants in arid environments will respond by increasing their total numbers of leaves. These changes in leaf cover can be detected by satellite, particularly in deserts and savannas where the cover is less complete than in wet locations,” according to Randall Donohue, the CSIRO research scientist.

  Breaking the Global Warming Narrative

  “Climate alarmists prefer to discuss climate knowledge only since 1850. The time before this they referred to as the pre-industrial age. This ‘pre-industrial age’ was more than 3 billion years when life was on the Earth. Many climate changes [occurred during that period], including Ice Ages, Hothouse Ages, major extinctions due to asteroid impacts, and other unknown causes,” Moore said.

  “Today, the Earth is in the Pleistocene Ice Age, which began 2.6 million years ago. … So, the most recent major glaciation, which peaked 20,000 years ago, was not the end of the Ice Age. We are still in the Pleistocene Ice Age no matter how the climate alarmists wish to deny this.”

  He said the great irony of the present panic about the climate is that the Earth is colder today than it was for 250 million years before the Pleistocene Ice Age set in. And CO2 is lower now than in more than 95 percent of Earth’s history.

  “But you would never know this if you listen to all the people who benefit from the lie that the Earth will soon be too hot for life and that CO2 will become higher than in Earth’s history,” Moore said.

  ‘More CO2 Is Beneficial to the Environment and Humans’

  According to Moore, nearly all commercial greenhouse farmers worldwide buy CO2 to inject into their greenhouses to realize up to 60 percent higher crop yields.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 09/08/2022 – 20:20

• Apple's Big Product Launch: It Was All About The iPhone Price
  Apple’s Big Product Launch: It Was All About The iPhone Price

  For those who missed it, and to be honest there was not much if anything new…

  Apple executives after selling everyone the iPhone 11 for the 4th time pic.twitter.com/DDgVsA9H7z

  — Marcus Hutchins (@MalwareTechBlog) September 7, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  … as even Steve Job’s daughter joked, here is a snapshot of everything that was announced at yesterday’s iPhone 14 reveal, courtesy of Goldman:

  • Pro pricing unchanged, Satellite connectivity, new premium Watch, all as expected Apple’s big Fall event revealed mostly incremental improvements (in GIR’s opinion) as the company launched a new iPhone, Watch, and AirPods.

  • Apple kept its USD pricing for all models of iPhone unchanged and inserted the new 14+ at the price we had expected. Rod believes this is likely the best pricing outcome for Apple as it avoids increasing the risk of Pro downgrades to non-Pro models and preserves some ASP with the 14+ at a higher pricepoint.

  • With regards to international prices, the company did partially adjust pricing for USD strength in international markets though the partial adjustment suggests a possible tradeoff of margin for unit demand.

  • As for other features, Apple launched a new Emergency SOS service via satellite connectivity in all new iPhones and is surprisingly offering the service free for 2 years.

  • The company also launched a new premium Watch Ultra priced at $799 which features a larger 49mm titanium case and a redesigned digital crown among other things. This had been heavily speculated in the press and the product is more or less in line with those reports.

  • Since the Apple Watch Ultra is a completely new product we expect most press to focus on this as the product release nears on September 23. We are particularly interested in how consumers react to the significantly larger size though the feature set looks attractive for outdoor enthusiasts.

  • Finally, the company also rolled out an upgrade to its popular AirPods Pro product with longer battery life and better sound quality. Apple’s stock was up slightly on the day but Rod sees little reason for incremental positivity on a product launch that was largely as expected

  Apple now has an iPhone for (almost) every wallet, starting with the budget-friendly iPhone SE from $429 and ending with the top-of-the-line 1TB 14 Pro Max for a whopping $1,599 in the United States (and significantly more in other parts of the world).

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  Looking at the reactions from the broader analyst community, Apple analysts said the biggest takeaway from the company’s product event was its pricing strategy, after the iPhone maker unveiled new versions of its smartphone and watch:

  Piper Sandler (overweight, PT $195)

  • Most importantly, average selling prices for these new phones were kept consistent with last year’s models
  • “Given the constrained economic environment we think this is an incremental positive”

  Canaccord Genuity (buy, PT $200)

  • Apple met investor expectations with its product launch and “has a strong lineup to deliver healthy holiday sales”
  • The company’s ecosystem approach, which includes an installed base that exceeds 1.8B devices globally, “should continue to generate strong services revenue”
  • “Longer term, we expect the higher margin services revenue growth to outpace total company growth and drive gross margin expansion”

  KeyBanc Capital Markets

  • The addition of incremental 4G/5G bands in the new iPhones is a “moderately positive for the RF group” that includes AVGO, QRVO, SWKS
  • Meanwhile, Apple’s decision to standardize eSIM might be a negative for wireless carriers, particularly AT&T and Verizon, as it makes switching carriers easier

  Wells Fargo Securities (overweight, PT $185)

  • The announcements “again prove to be more evolutionary than revolutionary,” and therefore the lack of change in the pricing strategy for Pro and Pro Max models is important; “we think investors were expecting up to a $100 price increase on the new high-end devices”
  • Apple’s expanded Apple Watch line-up is “an incremental positive”

  Evercore ISI (outperform, PT $185)

  • The announcements were “largely as expected,” though “some may be slightly surprised by the lack of pricing action”

  Wedbush (outperform, PT $220)

  • The lack of a price increase was a surprise to the Street
  • “We believe Apple is expecting another heavy iPhone Pro and Pro Max mix shift which is a clear positive for [average selling prices] heading into FY23”

  Bloomberg Intelligence

  • “Overall, we don’t anticipate that these new products are likely to spur noticeable sales growth in the company’s next fiscal year”

   

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 09/08/2022 – 20:00

• County Official In Nevada Arrested In Connection With Murder Of Las Vegas Reporter: Report
  County Official In Nevada Arrested In Connection With Murder Of Las Vegas Reporter: Report

  Authored by Mimi Nguyen Ly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Police have arrested a county official in Nevada in connection to the recent murder of a Las Vegas Review-Journal investigative reporter who had written articles about the official, the newspaper reported.

  

  The murdered reporter, Jeff German, was found dead outside his home on Sept. 3. He died of “multiple sharp force injuries” in a homicide, the Clark County Office of the Coroner/Medical Examiner said on Sept. 4. Police said at the time that German appeared to have been in an altercation with another person prior to the stabbing.

  Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo told the Las Vegas Review-Journal around 6:30 p.m. local time on Sept. 7 that Clark County Public Administrator Robert Telles had been arrested.

  The newspaper reported that shortly before Lombardo’s confirmation, police in tactical gear had surrounded Telles’ home, and about 30 minutes later, Telles was wheeled out of his home on a stretcher and was loaded into an ambulance.

  The arrest comes after officers executed search warrants on Telles’ residence earlier in the day. Local outlets reported that a home at which officers were seen belongs to Telles. The Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department confirmed to The Epoch Times the execution of warrants were related to German’s murder.

  Vehicle at Crime Scene Matches Description of One in Official’s Garage

  Police had interviewed Telles and searched his home, including his vehicle, which matched the description of a vehicle witnesses saw at the scene of the crime.

  Police on Sept. 6 had released an image of the vehicle, which was described as a 2007 to 2014 red or maroon GMC Yukon Denali with chrome handles, a sunroof, and a luggage rack.

  Reporters with the Las Vegas Review-Journal said that they saw Telles in the driveway of his home with a vehicle matching the description. The GMC vehicle, as well as a second vehicle, were towed from Telles’ property at about 12:50 p.m local time on Sept. 7, reported the outlet.

  Telles did not speak to reporters outside his home around 2:20 p.m., after he was interviewed and searched by police. He was wearing what appeared to be a hazmat suit and sandals, as if he had discarded his clothes, or surrendered them as evidence.

  German, 69, was well known in Las Vegas for his decades of reporting on political malfeasance and organized crime.

  

  Telles, who is due to leave office in January, had lost the Democratic primary election in June. The 45-year-old official’s failed reelection bid came shortly after German reported that Telles had an inappropriate relationship with a subordinate and treated workers poorly.

  On Twitter in June, Telles called German “obsessed” with him and said that his wife had caught German going through his trash. “Looking forward to lying smear piece #4 by @JGermanRJ,” Telles wrote on June 18 on Twitter. “I think he’s mad that I haven’t crawled into a hole and died.”

  German had also previously written other articles that involved Telles and had recently filed public records requests for emails and text messages between Telles and three other county officials.

  In a letter on his website, Telles said that the articles German authored had contained false allegations. “I know that Clark County will find that I have done nothing wrong,” he wrote of German’s allegations.

  Arrest of Official an ‘Enormous Relief’: Newspaper Editor

  Glenn Cook, the Las Vegas Review-Journal’s executive editor, said on Sept. 7 that Telles’s arrest is “at once an enormous relief and an outrage for the Review-Journal newsroom.”

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 09/08/2022 – 19:40

• China's "ESG" Funds Include Coal Companies And Firms Tied To Alleged Human Rights Violations In Xinjiang
  China’s “ESG” Funds Include Coal Companies And Firms Tied To Alleged Human Rights Violations In Xinjiang

  Further proving that ESG investments can include…anything anybody wants…and proving that the entire notion of ESG investing is one giant racket, it was reported this week that ESG investment initiatives in China have investors funneling their cash into liquor and coal companies. 

  Fund manager Hou Chunyan, who recently pitched ESG investing as a way to stay compatible with China’s goals of “common prosperity”, said in a presentation in June that her fund, the Da Cheng ESG Responsibility Investment Mixed Fund, doesn’t exclude coal companies or liquor stocks, according to Yahoo/Bloomberg. 

  Additionally, the piece notes that ESG funds also invest in chemical manufacturers and solar and technology firms tied to forced labor in Xinjiang. 

  President Xi Jinping’s net-zero commitment and anti-poverty campaigns have prompted 112 new ESG funds to pop up in China over the last 20 months, according to Bloomberg data. This is about three times as many that debuted over the four years prior. 

  Retail investors in China are providing plenty of demand for the funds, Fidelity said. There are now $50 billion in ESG assets in China – about double what there was in the beginning of 2021. 

  And because “ESG” in China also means tethering your fund to China’s political goals, about 15% of the country’s ESG funds are invested in coal. More than 60% own steel companies, who are massive consumers of the country’s coal. 

  

  Bradford Cornell, emeritus professor of financial economics at UCLA, told Bloomberg: “People say ESG like we’ve agreed upon what it is — we’ve not. In China, the rules on environmental and social issues are made by the Chinese Communist Party.”

  Liu Xiangfeng, whose Beijing-based firm, QuantData, specializes in ESG analysis, added: “A local analyst would consider being a state-owned enterprise a good thing, while their counterpart in Europe might consider it a deal-breaker. There is culture and ideology involved.”

  The country’s CSI 300 ESG Leaders index includes China Shenhua Energy Co., which gets 78% of its revenue from coal mining, and alcohol company Kweichow Moutai Co.

  About 10% of the country’s ESG funds also hold Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co., which is a company that has already been placed under U.S. trade sanctions due to alleged human rights violations in Xinjiang. 

  Shirley Xu, head of ESG research at China Asset Management Co., said: “As an asset manager in China, aside from using international ratings as a reference, we must follow China’s current stage of industry development and invest accordingly.” 

  Boya Wang, an ESG analyst at Morningstar Inc. concluded: “The government is bound to generate its own interpretation of ESG, because they want to make sure it will not conflict with the country’s national economic strategies…social inequality and local unemployment top the agenda.”

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 09/08/2022 – 19:20

• Judge Bars Official Who Took Part In Jan. 6 From 'Seeking Or Holding' Office
  Judge Bars Official Who Took Part In Jan. 6 From ‘Seeking Or Holding’ Office

  Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  A judge in New Mexico has barred an official who was convicted for being on the grounds of the U.S. Capitol while it was breached on Jan. 6, 2021, from seeking or holding state or federal office, and removed the official from his position.

  

  State District Court Judge Francis Mathew found that Couy Griffin, an Otero County commissioner, took an oath to support the U.S. Constitution when assuming the position.

  Mathew also concluded that the Capitol breach was “an insurrection against the U.S. Constitution” and that Griffin “engaged in” the insurrection when he entered restricted Capitol grounds.

  Three New Mexico residents, represented by the Washington-based nonprofit Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics, had asked the court to bar Griffin from holding office.

  They pointed to Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, which says that no person shall hold a federal or state office if they “having previously taken an oath … to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof.”

  Due to the breach constituting an insurrection and Griffin participating after taking an oath in support of the Constitution, Griffin was disqualified from holding a state or federal office as of the day of the breach, according to the new ruling.

  “Mr. Griffin aided the insurrection even though he did not personally engage in violence,” Mathew said. “By joining the mob and trespassing on restricted Capitol grounds, Mr. Griffin contributed to delaying Congress’s election-certification proceedings.”

  Griffin, who also founded a group called Cowboys for Trump, did not immediately respond to a request for comment. A phone call to the number listed for him on the Otero County website was not answered.

  The two other Otero County commissioners did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 09/08/2022 – 19:00

• Lender Seizes Evergrande's Hong Kong Headquarters
  Lender Seizes Evergrande’s Hong Kong Headquarters

  It may not have been China’s Lehman, but just like Lehman, Evergrande’s sprawling headquarters now belongs to someone else: according to the FT, Evergrande’s Hong Kong headquarters building has been seized by a lender after the struggling Chinese property developer defaulted on a loan and twice failed to sell the building.

  The lender, whose identity has not yet been confirmed, informed Evergrande earlier this week that it had appointed a receiver to take charge of the property, which is valued at $1.2 billion. Citing four sources, the FT notes that the lender had security over the China Evergrande Centre – a 26-story tower near the city center of Hong Kong island – which allowed it to take charge of the asset.

  

  Evergrande had reportedly pledged the building in exchange for loans from a consortium of lenders led by China CITIC Bank International, the HK-based subsidiary of the Chinese state-owned bank. The unnamed lender had appointed receivers from restructuring firm Alvarez & Marsal.

  Last September, as an Evergrande default loomed, CITIC Bank told its investors that its loans to the developer were pledged against valuable security, although it did not provide further details. We now have a hint what said security may have been.

  Evergrande was infamously the most prominent developer to default in 2021 as a liquidity crisis gripped the Chinese property sector. It told creditors in January that it would unveil a preliminary plan by the end of July to restructure its $300 billion of liabilities, which include $20 billion of offshore bonds, but it missed that deadline and instead said it had only made “positive progress” toward a proposal.

  The property developer had twice attempted to sell the tower. Last October, Chinese state-owned Yuexiu Property pulled out of a reported $1.7 billion deal to buy the building over concerns about the developer’s financial situation. It put the headquarters back on the market in July, attracting a number of bids including from Li Ka-shing’s Hong Kong property developer CK Asset Holdings. However the sale again fell through because the bids were too low, reflecting Evergrande’s desperate need to raise cash.

  Evergrande has been divesting assets including property and its stakes in companies in a bid to repay some of its creditors. Its chair has also put his personal assets up for sale, including private jets. This week, Evergrande said it would sell its remaining stakes in China’s Shengjing Bank for $1.1 billion.

  The developer, which is listed in Hong Kong but whose shares have been suspended from trading since March, has not yet informed the market that a receiver has been appointed over one of its large Hong Kong assets. Earlier this year, Oaktree Capital, a $158 billion American asset manager, seized two of Evergrande’s prized assets after it defaulted on loans that totaled around $1 billion. The assets were a large development site in Hong Kong, where Evergrande’s chair Hui Ka Yan had intended to build a Versailles-like mansion and a sprawling residential and tourism resort near Shanghai called “Venice.”

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 09/08/2022 – 18:40

• Rand Paul: "America Should Be Appalled" At Fauci Covering His Tracks
  Rand Paul: “America Should Be Appalled” At Fauci Covering His Tracks

  Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

  Appearing on Fox News Wednesday, Senator Rand Paul slammed Anthony Fauci for taking the default position of trying to “cover up” his activities, including potentially encouraging social media companies to censor medical information.

  

  After a federal judge ordered the release of emails Fauci sent to social media platforms concerning what he defined as ‘misinformation’, many want to know exactly what Fauci asked of them.

  “His response was not that I’ll look into it or I’ll reveal that. His response was, by law, we don’t have to tell you which companies gave us how many royalties and to which scientists,” Paul said of Fauci, noting that the emails sent to social media bosses could reveal censorship efforts.

  “I think that all of America should be appalled that America’s doctor, the leading expert on COVID in public health, doesn’t want to divulge information, doesn’t want to divulge his communications with Big Tech,” Paul urged, adding that Fauci’s “modus operandi” is to “cover up”.

  Watch:

  As part of a lawsuit brought by Louisiana Republican Jeffrey Landry, the federal judge ruled that Fauci and White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre need to make public all relevant communications with Big Tech within the next three weeks.

  Landry and Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt argued in an initial filing that “having threatened and cajoled social-media platforms for years to censor viewpoints and speakers disfavored by the Left, senior government officials in the Executive Branch have moved into a phase of open collusion with social-media platforms under the Orwellian guise of halting so-called ‘disinformation,’ ‘misinformation’ and ‘malinformation.’”

  Elsewhere during the interview, Senator Paul commented on revelations by Gun Owners of America that the FBI pressured Americans into signing forms that relinquished their right to purchase, possess and use firearms. 

  “There is a certain irony to saying to someone you have to be mentally competent to sign this statement that says you’re not mentally competent to have a gun,” Paul noted, adding “So there is that that might be a quandary if you get into a court of law. How someone that’s mentally incompetent to own a gun could be competent to sign away their gun rights.”

  “I think the whole problem we have right now is that there’s a burden upon the FBI to prove to the American public that they are not partisan,” Paul said, adding “This goes back to 2016 when they used a foreign intelligence warrant to go after Donald Trump and his campaign.”

  “A foreign intelligence warrant which should be used on foreigners in a secret court was used to go after a major presidential, you know, candidate,” the Senator reiterated.

  *  *  *

  Brand new merch now available! Get it at https://www.pjwshop.com/

  In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. We need you to sign up for our free newsletter here. Support our sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown. Also, we urgently need your financial support here.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 09/08/2022 – 18:20

• California's Power Grid Turmoil Spurs Diesel Demand For Generators
  California’s Power Grid Turmoil Spurs Diesel Demand For Generators

  A record-setting heat wave pushed California’s power grid to the limit this week as California Independent System Operator (CAISO) called for customers to limit their electricity usage or risk widespread power blackouts. 

  Fear of power rationing led top power consumers, such as hospitals, data centers, and manufacturing plants, to fill up their diesel storage tanks to ensure generators had enough fuel to prepare for future brownouts and blackouts, according to Bloomberg, citing fuel distributors in the state. 

  

  The move to top off the tanks of diesel generators helped push supplies at storage facilities across the state to the lowest levels since 2019 — making the fuel primarily used in industrial applications even more scarce, resulting in higher prices. 

  

  “The buying spree comes as the state endures a record-breaking heat wave that’s pushed the electricity system to the brink. California on Wednesday declared another power-grid emergency after managing to avoid rolling blackouts on Monday and Tuesday,” Bloomberg noted.

  And it wasn’t just commercial customers preparing generators for a grid-down situation. Residential customers, especially ones with Teslas, were filling up their gas-powered generators this week to ensure they had on-demand power to charge their EVs. 

  

  Californians are learning the hard way after politicians and unelected officials spent years decarbonizing the grid by decommissioning fossil fuel power generators for unreliable solar and wind while ignoring nuclear has made the state’s grid susceptible to failure during peak demand hours. 

  And somehow, the state wants to ban new sales of gas-powered vehicles by 2035. Instead of unreliable green energy sources, perhaps nuclear is the answer for California’s grid troubles. 

   

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 09/08/2022 – 18:00

• "Weak Links" Are Being Exposed – Jeff Gundlach Warns "The Period Of Abundance Is Over"
  “Weak Links” Are Being Exposed – Jeff Gundlach Warns “The Period Of Abundance Is Over”

  Authored by Christoph Gisiger via TheMarket.ch,

  Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine, worries that the Federal Reserve is overreacting in the fight against inflation. He expects a severe slowdown of the economy and says how investors can navigate today’s challenging market environment. A conversation with the Bond King.

  When Jeffrey Gundlach speaks, financial markets around the globe listen carefully. The founder and CEO of DoubleLine, a Los Angeles based investment boutique mainly specializing in bonds, ranks among America’s highest-profile investors. On Wall Street, he is known for speaking his mind.

  According to his view, one of the biggest risks right now is that the Federal Reserve is doing considerable damage to the economy with its aggressive rate hikes:

  «The next shock is that we’re having to put in a big overreaction to the inflation problem which we created from our initial reaction of excess stimulus,» Mr. Gundlach says.

  «My guess is that we will end up creating momentum that’s more deflationary than a lot of people believe is even possible.»

  In this in-depth interview with The Market NZZ, the market maven explains why he expects a severe economic downturn in the coming months, where he sees the weak links in the system, and where he spots opportunities for prudent investments in today’s volatile market environment.

  

  Mr. Gundlach, financial markets are in a fragile state. Inflation is the highest in more than four decades, and stocks as well as bonds suffered significant losses this year. What’s on your mind in light of this environment?

  The Federal Reserve is very keen on preserving what is left of its credibility and reputation because they have not been able to execute on their interest rate plans for many years. Every time they try to tighten monetary policy, it doesn’t take long for the economy to get weak, and they get embarrassed. In the past, the Fed was able to pivot like it did at the end of 2018 when it completely reversed its course in just six weeks because the stock market collapsed. It was able to do that because the inflation rate was still below 2%, so it didn’t seem to have much of a near-term consequence.

  And how about today?

  This time, the inflation rate is 500+ basis points higher than the yield on any Treasury bond, and the Fed has said forcefully and repeatedly that they are going to bring it down. Therefore, they are not in a position to do a quick pivot.

  What do you think happens next?

  Weirdly, the market consensus thinks that the Fed is going to raise rates somewhat more, maybe even 125 or 150 basis points, and then, around six or seven months from now, the market expects that they mysteriously are going to start easing. Basically, the idea is that they are going to hike interest rates significantly more, and then they are going to drop them back down. To me, that’s a strange thing to predict because why bother with anything then? If you’re taking rates up and then back down, why bother taking them up? Why not just do nothing? It’s like a six-foot-tall man who’s in shape and weighs 185 pounds saying: «I’m going to put on 100 pounds this holiday season, and then I’ll take it off with a crash diet by Easter.» What’s the point of that? That’s not healthy, it’s very bad.

  But isn’t the idea here to give the economy a quick hit so that inflationary pressures subside and the system can recalibrate on a more balanced basis?

  Sure, but what you’re implying here is that the inflation rate goes down from 9% to 2% which is the Fed’s goal within a year or by the end of next year. That’s sort of the hope. But if this would be really possible, if the inflation rate were to fall so quickly and so sharply, why do you think it would stop at 2%? Why wouldn’t you think it goes negative? Why wouldn’t you think so much momentum towards a slowing economy might overshoot on the deflation side?

  How serious is the risk of deflation, in your view?

  Due to the pandemic, we did this huge amount of radical economic policy. The idea was that it was going to be free money and free growth with no bad consequences. But of course, we’ve had bad consequences. Now, people are thinking we can just do this reactionary shock to the economy by taking the federal funds rate up to 3.5% or 4%. But if that’s enough to weaken the economy to take 7 percentage points off the inflation rate, why wouldn’t it be 15 points? So maybe, we are going to get a delayed reaction that’s deflationary, just like we had a delayed reaction that was highly inflationary.

  What would that mean for financial markets?

  These shock-and-awe tactics work with a delay, and if you overdo them, you end up getting tremendous incremental volatility. We’ve had so much economic volatility in the past two and a half years compared with the preceding decade where the economy grew more or less steadily at 2% and the inflation rate never truly budged. Then, we introduced all these extraordinary policies that work with a lag. We just keep doing them until they kick in after the lag, and by then we’ve greatly overdone it. I think that’s the message of the bond market. Why else would we have interest rates so far below the inflation rate and such a flat yield curve?

  

  Into this highly volatile situation, we have a Fed that is expected to do $1 trillion of quantitative tightening over the next twelve months. Will this become an additional burden for the economy?

  Yes, that will add to economic weakness. The consumer is very weak as you can see with some of the upper middle-class oriented retail chains like Nordstrom. Nordstrom’s stock lost 25% just last month. All these things that are aspirational purchases rather than necessities have fallen off the cliff because people have to spend too much money on gasoline and food. In contrast, low-end retailers like Walmart had an explosion in new customers. Many of them used to shop at Whole Foods, now they shop at Walmart because the food there is about 30% cheaper. Walmart is also reporting a significant shift in their customers paying with credit cards, not debit cards. In other words, shoppers are borrowing to buy food.

  However, the labor market is still performing quite robustly.

  It’s highly suspicious. The labor market is screwed up because of all the dislocation. People still don’t know what the future is for office work, or for hybrid work. Looking ahead, it’s hard to figure out where the economic strength is supposed to come from. It’s pretty obvious that the consumer is not in good shape. Therefore, it’s not surprising that we’re seeing weakness in some of the former stock market darlings like Peloton. Peloton’s stock is down like 97% from its high, and it looks like it’s going to zero. Zoom and all the other darlings of the lockdown are collapsing as well. My guess is that a lot of them are going to go bankrupt.

  

   

  In this context, where are the weak links investors should pay close attention to?

   

  The large banks in Europe continue to perform very poorly. I see Credit Suisse is backing away from trying to be a Wall Street and United States titan. Their stock just seems to never go up. Deutsche Bank fared a little bit better, but interest rate suppression policies had made it impossible for European banks to make money. In the American economy, the weak links are producers and retailers of discretionary goods because the people don’t have the money to buy them. It’s like French President Macron recently said: The period of abundance is over. The weak links are those that benefit from abundance. We’re in an economy that doesn’t have the liquidity. There is no more funding for questionable ventures, for non-profitable businesses. Those are the weak links: The people that were living off of free money and cheap money and not making any money.

  What is the probability of a more severe economic downturn in this regard?

  Again, the overarching theme people are not fully appreciating is that we have become unhinged in terms of our economic parameters versus trying to manage the economy gradualisticly, as we did for quite a while. All of sudden, we’ve decided we had to respond in a way that is not all gradualistic. We had to damn the torpedoes and just go for it. That took us off balance, and we’re having a hard time finding our footing. It’s going to take a long time to find footing, but the next shock is that we’re having to put in a big overreaction to the inflation problem which we created from our initial reaction of excess stimulus. My guess is that we will end up creating momentum that’s more deflationary than a lot of people believe is even possible.

  Do you think Fed Chair Powell has the stamina to resolutely continue his fight against inflation if the signs of an economic slowdown continue to pile up?

  He has to. He’s not going to stop. He waffled too much in the past. He made policy pivots on small changes of data, and that put him in an unfortunate light. Now, he has made a pledge to bring inflation down, and he can’t break it without strong evidence that the reason for the pledge has passed. He can’t say «we have won the inflation battle» if the consumer price index stays above 6%. If Powell changes his rhetoric, he will go down in history as a joke. He has said unequivocally and repeatedly that he’s not going to stop just because we get one or two good inflation numbers or we get a little bit of economic weakness. I’m paraphrasing here because he doesn’t want to say it so directly, but essentially, he stated that the Fed doesn’t care if we have a mild recession.

  

   

  But what happens if this turns out to be a severe downturn?

   

  Powell is in an unstable place right now because it probably can’t last. He has a supposedly good employment market. While that’s suspicious, the unemployment rate is at 3.7%, and there are a lot of job openings, which gives the Fed cover to fight inflation. By a mild recession Powell means the unemployment rate goes up to 4%. If it rises to that level, I think he can continue with inflation fighting. But what if the unemployment rate goes up to 8%? Then what? We know exactly what’s going to happen: In the next recession, the US is going to go on a much more aggressive round of free money.

  You’re referring to another money printing binge?

  Much bigger. That’s their methodology: zero interest rates and money printing. It started back in the 2000s, and we’ve been at it ever since. And it always takes a bigger dose. Once you’re on a debt-financed scheme, you always have to borrow more.

  What then, would you advise monetary policy makers to do right now?

  I think Powell should slow down. The Fed should actually not raise the target rate by 75 basis points at the next meeting. They should do 25 basis points, and let a little time pass. Powell can keep playing the inflation fighter as long as he’s raising rates gradually. I wouldn’t even care if he skipped a meeting: A 25 basis point hike in September, and then pause at the next FOMC meeting in November. Let’s wait and see what happens because the bond market should be listened to: Every time the bond market is at odds with consensus economists, the bond market is right. And the bond market is saying that yields are peaking.

  But wouldn’t waiting raise the risk of persistently high inflation?

  We had this incredible shock of liquidity injected into the system in the second quarter of 2020, and the negative consequences really didn’t show up for over a year. The inflation rate didn’t start to go up significantly until the second half of last year. That’s why we should wait. We started raising rates meaningfully in May, so let these hikes percolate through and see what happens. But Powell can’t do that. He has stated so forcefully and repeatedly that he’s not going to let up until he sees inflation coming down in a «convincing» way. Satisfying these conditions is going to take some time. But I think he should slow down.

  How can prudent investors navigate this challenging environment?

  This has been a capital preservation situation for the past year. Beginning of this year or a year ago, stocks, by historical measures, were extremely overvalued in terms of P/E ratios, price-to-book, and all kinds of measures. Except for one thing: As overvalued stocks were versus historical measures, they were actually cheap to bonds. Bonds were even more overvalued, and it’s surprising to people that bonds are down as much as stocks this year. The only thing that’s up at all is commodities, and that ended too back in June. Nothing is really up since the Fed started raising interest rates in earnest in June. So it’s just a capital preservation market.

  That doesn’t sound encouraging. Is there nothing investors can do?

  The problem is that financial markets are entirely balanced upon zero interest rates and quantitative easing. The Fed pledged that was going away, and they are still speaking like they have the intention of further honoring that pledge. As a consequence, your financial assets are devaluing. If people really wanted to invest in something fundamentally, you probably want to invest in something like an energy company. You actually want to have the most old-school types of assets, things producing something that’s needed: farm land, food, energy, oil. Those are the places where you can protect yourself from inflation. These are also assets that are somewhat recession proof. People have to buy food and other necessities, but there is nothing left for all of this abundance spending.

  What about bonds, DoubleLine’s core competence?

  As I said, bond yields are probably in the process of peaking out. Parts of the yield curve have been inverted for a while, so it’s very reasonable to expect an economic downturn of significance within a year. We’re heading into the lean years, and that’s probably a situation where ultimately income becomes harder to come by. That’s why bond yields have been stuck at around 3% to 3.25% for about three or four months now. It sends the message that high-quality bonds might actually perform reasonably well as unattractive as they are versus inflation. In fact, they already have. The long bond got to 3.50%; it’s up in price the past few months. That’s why I think investors should own bonds instead of stocks; bonds are cheap to stocks.

  

   

  Where do you see the most attractive opportunities for fixed-income investments?

   

  Because of the illiquidity and the redemptions from the bond industry, spreads on non-government bonds were widening in a pretty powerful way until the middle of the summer. For instance, junk bonds started out this year with a yield of about 5%, and they got up to about 10%. Some emerging market bonds are yielding 15%, 18%. These are risky, but they are so much more attractive than stocks. Some bonds have yields of 10% to 12% and have prices of 75 cents on the dollar. Think about what the return potential is here: If you have a yield of 10-12%, and you have a 10% price gain, you could easily make 20-25%. It’s very unlikely that you make that from stocks. The bond market has gone from no value anywhere two years ago to abundant value relative to stocks.

  A key question is also what the dollar is going to do after the recent strong rally. How do you view the outlook for the greenback?

  The dollar is in the very late stages of its strength. The dollar will go up until the next recession, and then it will drop precipitously. I have been bullish on the dollar for over a year, but I’m extremely bearish on the dollar for the next ten years.

  A weaker dollar should be good for emerging markets, shouldn’t it?

  Yes, when the dollar tops out, you should own nothing but emerging markets if you’re an extremely aggressive investor. I wouldn’t do it personally because I’m a low-risk personality type, but emerging markets will do very, very well. They’re so cheap compared to developed markets, and their currencies will appreciate, I think, in the next recession. That means you could have a double win when you’re a US dollar-based investor. But I don’t think it’s going to happen this year. That might be a story for 2023.

  China looms particularly large for many investors in emerging markets since it represents an outsize stake in many EM funds. How should one deal with that in times of rising geopolitical tensions?

  I wouldn’t invest in China. I think there is just too much uncertainty. Tensions between China and the United States are high, and likely to get much worse. If you’re an American, you might not even be able to redeem your investment. So I would stay out of there, but Asia ex-China I would invest in.

  Should investors rather buy bonds or shares when it comes to emerging markets?

  I think you would buy both when we get to the next recession, after we have perhaps a Treasury rally. I think bonds broadly will do reasonably well, and in emerging markets they’re so much cheaper than in the United States. Right now, emerging market portfolios yield about 9.5%. So if the currency goes your way, and the yield goes your way, you make a lot of money off emerging markets.

  

   

  How about Europe? Do you spot opportunities for investments in Europe?

   

  We own European stocks. I think in the next recession they will do better, and they’re cheaper than US stocks. Europe doesn’t have the same sort of crazy zombie companies to the extent we do in the United States. It’s the zombie companies that are really going to have problems, and the US is loaded with zombie companies. And again, ultimately the dollar will depreciate, which is another reason we like European stocks. So far, this position hasn’t been a tremendous benefit to us, but it hasn’t hurt either. That’s actually a good sign. Europe was underperforming the United States almost all the time for a decade, and that stopped two years ago. When the trend stops, it takes a while for it to reverse, but once it stops, it tends to reverse.

  You started your career in the investment industry in the early Eighties when the general environment was somewhat similar to today. Looking back on your experience in all kinds of markets, what is the most important thing in investing?

  You have to buy when prices are low. I’m not making a joke, I mean it. Every time when there is a problem in the bond market, money pours out. There is greed and fear: Greed is powerful, but fear is more powerful. Yet, there is one thing that is even more powerful: need. When you need something, you have to have it. If people need to make a certain investment return, what they will do when opportunities go down is increase their risk because they need a higher return. They can’t live on a 3% return, they need 6%. So when there is no 6%, they try to manufacture a 6%. As a result, their risk goes up, up, up, up, up, and then they’re maximum exposed to risk. Next, prices collapse, and then they sell because their fear is so great. Instead, they should be buying. Right now, the bond market is very attractive, but no one is listening because everybody is selling. You’re supposed to be buying when people are selling, and that opportunity is still very strong today.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 09/08/2022 – 17:40

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• First Came 9/11, Then COVID-19, What's The Next Crisis To Lockdown The Nation?
  First Came 9/11, Then COVID-19, What’s The Next Crisis To Lockdown The Nation?

  Authored by John and Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

  “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by an endless series of hobgoblins, most of them imaginary.”

  – H.L. Mencken

  First came 9/11, which the government used to transform itself into a police state.

  Then the COVID-19 pandemic hit, which the police state used to test out its lockdown powers.

  In light of the government’s tendency to exploit crises (legitimate or manufactured) and capitalize on the nation’s heightened emotions, confusion and fear as a means of extending the reach of the police state, one has to wonder what so-called crisis it will declare next.

  It’s a simple enough formula: first, you create fear, then you capitalize on it by seizing power.

  

  Frankly, it doesn’t even matter what the nature of the next national emergency might be (terrorism, civil unrest, economic collapse, a health scare, or the environment) as long as it allows the government to lockdown the nation and justify all manner of tyranny in the so-called name of national security.

  Cue the Emergency State.

  Terrorist attacks, mass shootings, “unforeseen economic collapse, loss of functioning political and legal order, purposeful domestic resistance or insurgency, pervasive public health emergencies, and catastrophic natural and human disasters”: the government has been anticipating and preparing for such crises for years now.

  As David C. Unger writes for the New York Times: “Life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness have given way to permanent crisis management: to policing the planet and fighting preventative wars of ideological containment, usually on terrain chosen by, and favorable to, our enemies. Limited government and constitutional accountability have been shouldered aside by the kind of imperial presidency our constitutional system was explicitly designed to prevent.”

  Here’s what we know: given the rate at which the government keeps devising new ways to establish itself as the “solution” to all of our worldly problems at taxpayer expense, each subsequent crisis ushers in ever larger expansions of government power and less individual liberty.

  This is the slippery slope to outright tyranny.

  You see, once the government acquires (and uses) authoritarian powers—to spy on its citizens, to carry out surveillance, to transform its police forces into extensions of the military, to seize taxpayer funds, to wage endless wars, to censor and silence dissidents, to identify potential troublemakers, to detain citizens without due process—it does not voluntarily relinquish them.

  The lesson for the ages is this: once any government is allowed to overreach and expand its powers, it’s almost impossible to put the genie back in the bottle. As Harvard constitutional law professor Laurence Tribe recognizes, “The dictatorial hunger for power is insatiable.”

  Indeed, the history of the United States is a testament to the old adage that liberty decreases as government (and government bureaucracy) grows. To put it another way, as government expands, liberty contracts.

  In this way, every crisis since the nation’s early beginnings has become a make-work opportunity for the government.

  Each crisis has also been a test to see how far “we the people” would allow the government to sidestep the Constitution in the so-called name of national security; a test to see how well we have assimilated the government’s lessons in compliance, fear and police state tactics; a test to see how quickly we’ll march in lockstep with the government’s dictates, no questions asked; and a test to see how little resistance we offer up to the government’s power grabs when made in the name of national security.

  Most critically of all, it has been a test to see whether the Constitution—and our commitment to the principles enshrined in the Bill of Rights—could survive a national crisis and true state of emergency.

  Unfortunately, we’ve been failing this particular test for a long time now.

  Indeed, the powers-that-be have been pushing our buttons and herding us along like so much cattle since World War II, at least, starting with the Japanese attacks on Pearl Harbor, which not only propelled the U.S. into World War II but also unified the American people in their opposition to a common enemy.

  That fear of attack by foreign threats, conveniently torqued by the growing military industrial complex, in turn gave rise to the Cold War era’s “Red Scare.” Promulgated through government propaganda, paranoia and manipulation, anti-Communist sentiments boiled over into a mass hysteria that viewed anyone and everyone as suspect: your friends, the next-door neighbor, even your family members could be a Communist subversive.

  This hysteria, which culminated in hearings before the House Un-American Activities Committee, where hundreds of Americans were called before Congress to testify about their so-called Communist affiliations and intimidated into making false confessions, also paved the way for the rise of an all-knowing, all-seeing governmental surveillance state.

  By the time 9/11 rolled around, all George W. Bush had to do was claim the country was being invaded by terrorists, and the government used the USA Patriot Act to claim greater powers to spy, search, detain and arrest American citizens in order to keep America safe.

  By way of the National Defense Authorization Act, Barack Obama continued Bush’s trend of undermining the Constitution, going so far as to give the military the power to strip Americans of their constitutional rights, label them extremists, and detain them indefinitely without trial, all in the name of keeping America safe.

  Despite the fact that the breadth of the military’s power to detain American citizens violates not only U.S. law and the Constitution but also international laws, the government has refused to relinquish its detention powers made possible by the NDAA.

  Then Donald Trump took office, claiming the country was being invaded by dangerous immigrants and insisting that the only way to keep America safe was to expand the reach of the border police, empower the military to “assist” with border control, and essentially turn the country into a Constitution-free zone.

  That so-called immigration crisis then morphed into multiple crises (domestic extremism, the COVID-19 pandemic, race wars, civil unrest, etc.) that the government has been eager to use in order to expand its powers.

  Joe Biden, in turn, has made every effort to expand the reach of the militarized police state, pledging to hire 87,000 more IRS agents and 100,000 police officers. Read between the lines and you’ll find that Biden has all but declared war on the American people.

  What the next crisis will be is anyone’s guess, but you can be sure that there will be a next crisis.

  So, what should you expect if the government decides to declare another state of emergency and institutes a nationwide lockdown?

  You should expect more of the same, only worse.

  More compliance, less resistance.

  More fear-mongering, mind-control tactics and less tolerance for those who question the government’s propaganda-driven narratives.

  Most of all, as I point out in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, you should expect more tyranny and less freedom.

  There’s every reason to worry about what comes next.

  Certainly, the government’s past track record and its long-anticipated plans for instituting martial law (using armed forces to solve domestic political and social problems) in response to a future crisis are cause enough to worry about the government’s handling of the next “crisis.”

  Mark my words: if and when another nationwide lockdown finally hits—if and when we are forced to shelter in place— if and when militarized police are patrolling the streets— if and when security checkpoints have been established— if and when the media’s ability to broadcast the news has been curtailed by government censors—if and when public systems of communication (phone lines, internet, text messaging, etc.) have been restricted—if and when those FEMA camps the government has been surreptitiously building finally get used as detention centers for American citizens—if and when military “snatch and grab” teams are deployed on local, state, and federal levels as part of the activated Continuity of Government plans to isolate anyone suspected of being a threat to national security—and if and when martial law is enacted with little real outcry or resistance from the public—then we will truly understand the extent to which the government has fully succeeded in acclimating us to a state of affairs in which the government has all the power and “we the people” have none. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 09/08/2022 – 00:05

• Virtual 'Teslasuit' Could Make 'Sex In Metaverse' Possible
  Virtual ‘Teslasuit’ Could Make ‘Sex In Metaverse’ Possible

  Virtual reality suit maker “Teslasuit” has a human-to-digital interface full-body suit with 90 electrodes designed to trick the body into feeling anything from a hug to raindrops to even the impact of a gunshot. The suit user can strap on VR goggles to ‘touch’ objects in the metaverse. 

  National Enquirer spoke with Teslasuit VP Paul Nickeas earlier this year about the suit’s “wide range of realistic sensations from the feeling of a raindrop to the impact of a gunshot.” 

  

  Nickeas told Daily Star this week more about the suit’s capabilities and real-world applications: 

  “The Teslasuit works via biometry, haptics and motion capture, with the wearer being calibrated via a gaming PC, so can be propelled into extended or virtual reality.

  “Obviously the use cases are truly far-reaching – from medical rehabilitation, to training for dangerous work scenarios in a safe to fail environment.

  “We are extremely excited about how our technology can be utilised for all aspects of the metaverse from gaming, training to now fashion.”

  BBC’s Sarah Cox experienced the world’s first “digital hug” while wearing the suit even though the man on the other end was across the room — she felt the hug via the suit’s electrodes.  

  “I could feel it all down my back, and on my shoulders, and on my stomach … and it’s just really exciting,” Cox said. 

  Teslasuit (unaffiliated with Elon Musk’s Tesla Motors) was never designed for hugs nor something more intimate such as sex. However, the sex industry has been quickly moving into VR as lovemaking could take a futuristic sci-fi turn with these suits. 

  “Users might go online, chat with a sex worker via webcam, agree on terms, and then synchronize their Teslasuits for a completely tactile sexual experience – all the while being thousands of miles away,” The Future of Sex’s Ben Barnes wrote. 

  One adult industry source told the National Enquirer that the porn industry is closely watching the development of these suits:

  “Once they get hold of suits like these, they will hack them for sex or build sensors for erogenous zones.” 

  With how things are going and the billions of dollars being poured into the metaverse by mega-corporations, there’s no doubt within this decade that some of the human population will be using VR for work, education, and/or sex. It seems wearing full-body haptic suits might also be part of the VR experience. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 09/07/2022 – 23:45

• 'They' Are Definitely Getting Prepared. Are You?
  ‘They’ Are Definitely Getting Prepared. Are You?

  Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

  The ultra-wealthy are some of the best preppers in the entire world.  I realize that statement may sound strange to many of you, but it is actually true.  The elite are very well aware that we are on the precipice of a full-blown societal meltdown, and many of them are spending enormous amounts of time, money and energy to prepare themselves for the extremely difficult times that are rapidly approaching.  In some cases, ultra-wealthy individuals are forking out giant mountains of cash for luxurious underground bunkers in the middle of nowhere.  In other cases, elitists are actually buying citizenship in far away foreign lands that they think will be safe. 

  We are talking about some of the smartest and wealthiest people in our entire society, and they are so freaked out about what is coming that they have become absolutely obsessed with trying to save themselves.

  

  Many of these individuals got to where they are today by staying one step ahead of everyone else.  That is why it is so alarming that 2,150 corporate executives sold off shares in their own companies in the month August alone.  Do they know something that the rest of us don’t?

  Of course when things start getting really bad, many among the elite do not plan to stick around to see what happens.  The following comes from a Guardian article entitled “The super-rich ‘preppers’ planning to save themselves from the apocalypse”…

  Many of those seriously seeking a safe haven simply hire one of several prepper construction companies to bury a prefab steel-lined bunker somewhere on one of their existing properties. Rising S Company in Texas builds and installs bunkers and tornado shelters for as little as $40,000 for an 8ft by 12ft emergency hideout all the way up to the $8.3m luxury series “Aristocrat”, complete with pool and bowling lane. The enterprise originally catered to families seeking temporary storm shelters, before it went into the long-term apocalypse business. The company logo, complete with three crucifixes, suggests their services are geared more toward Christian evangelist preppers in red-state America than billionaire tech bros playing out sci-fi scenarios.

  There’s something much more whimsical about the facilities in which most of the billionaires – or, more accurately, aspiring billionaires – actually invest. A company called Vivos is selling luxury underground apartments in converted cold war munitions storage facilities, missile silos, and other fortified locations around the world. Like miniature Club Med resorts, they offer private suites for individuals or families, and larger common areas with pools, games, movies and dining. Ultra-elite shelters such as the Oppidum in the Czech Republic claim to cater to the billionaire class, and pay more attention to the long-term psychological health of residents. They provide imitation of natural light, such as a pool with a simulated sunlit garden area, a wine vault, and other amenities to make the wealthy feel at home.

  Of course the vast majority of us don’t have lots of extra money to spend on a giant underground bunker.

  But for those that can afford it, I certainly can’t blame them for wanting one.

  Things are going to get really bad in the years ahead.

  Other ultra-wealthy individuals are shelling out cash for “golden passports” that grant them citizenship in a second country…

  Loaded liberals are forking out millions of dollars for ‘golden passports’ because they are scared of a Trump-led civil war in 2024, immigration lawyers have revealed.

  The wealthy wokes are spending huge sums to bag visas that allow them escape to countries like Austria, Turkey, Jordan and the Caribbean, according to attorneys running the processes.

  Consultants say they’ve seen a massive spike in interest for citizenships for second countries over the last few years.

  In theory, such a plan sounds good.

  If things get crazy in the United States, just hop on a private plane and head to a nice peaceful nation on the other side of the planet.

  But what if we are facing emergencies that are truly global in nature?

  In that case, such a plan may not work as well.

  If you would like a “golden passport” in the future, you might want to start saving up your money, because they aren’t cheap…

  The cost of acquired citizenship ranges from the low six-figures to many millions of dollars.

  Some Atlantic islands are ultimately affordable, while chic-European countries will cost you a pretty-penny.

  Sadly, the vast majority of the population simply cannot afford to do much at all to prepare for the hard times that are approaching because most people are just barely scraping by these days.

  In fact, many Americans that are working as hard as they can “do not earn enough to cover a basic family budget”…

  More than one-third of U.S. families that work full time year-round do not earn enough to cover a basic family budget, according to a recent report from researchers at Brandeis University’s diversitydatakids.org program at the Institute for Child, Youth and Family Policy.

  The situation is even more dire for Black and Hispanic families, according to the report. More than half cannot afford basic needs, compared to 25% of white families and 23% of Asian and Pacific Islander families. Inequities remain even when controlling for education and occupation.

  I was stunned when I first came across those numbers.

  And things are particularly bad for families that are considered to be “low income”…

  For low-income families – those whose income falls below 200% of the supplemental poverty measure, or $52,492 for two adults and two related children in 2020 it’s – 77% who can’t pay the bills despite working full time.

  In 2020, more than a quarter of the population, 89.7 million people, were considered low income per the Population Reference Bureau, a nonprofit that collects statistics for research on the health and structure of populations.

  So many people out there are just trying to survive from month to month.

  In an article that I posted a couple of days ago, I mentioned the fact that about 20 million households in the United States are currently behind on their utility bills.

  If you can’t even pay your power bill, of course you don’t have any money for prepping.

  Survey after survey has shown that well over half of the country is living paycheck to paycheck, and that means that the majority of the population simply does not have the resources necessary to adequately prepare for what is ahead of us.

  But the elite have more cash than they know what to do with, and they are spending big to try to ensure that they will survive whatever happens.

  If you have the resources to do so, I would encourage you to also work feverishly to get prepared before the window of opportunity that we currently have closes completely.

  *  *  *

  It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 09/07/2022 – 23:25

• Putin Threatens "Scam" Ukraine Grain Export Deal, Says Most Ships Diverted To EU
  Putin Threatens “Scam” Ukraine Grain Export Deal, Says Most Ships Diverted To EU

  President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday threatened to abandon the UN-brokered Ukraine grain export deal which has lately been declared by Turkey to be a ‘success’ – given at this point dozens of cargo ships have now traversed the Black Sea from Ukrainian ports since the agreement signed in Istanbul went into effect. 

  The Russian leader alleged while giving an opening speech before the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok on Wednesday that Western powers are acting “like colonial powers” and using the deal deceptively. He described that while Western officials decried Russia’s blocking food from getting to global south countries, such as in Africa or in Asia, the reality is that most of the ships to depart through the ‘safety corridor’ so far have ended up in Europe, according to his assertions. 

  

  The grain deal, finalized in late July, was preceded by months of EU and US officials decrying Moscow policies in blockading Ukraine’s coast, which they said would cause famine in the developing world – heavily reliant on grain from the region. The Kremlin response was to blame Ukraine’s military for mining its own ports. 

  “What we see is a brazen deception … a deception by the international community of our partners in Africa, and other countries that are in dire need of food. It’s just a scam,” Putin said.

  Putin is accusing Ukraine’s Western backers of “cheating” by adopting the cause of poorer countries when it comes to public rhetoric, but in reality diverting food shipments:

  “Only 3% of the grain being exported from Ukraine is going to developing countries, the majority is going to Europe… over the past decades European countries have acted like colonial powers, they are continuing to act like that today,” Putin claimed.

  “Once again, they have deceived developing countries,” he continued, saying “it may be worth considering how to limit the export of grain and other food along this route.”

  According to the figures offered by Putin during the speech: 

  Putin said, without citing a source, that only two of 87 ships, carrying 60,000 tonnes of products, went to poor countries, as he accused the West of acting as colonial states.

  “That’s how it is – they were once colonisers and have remained so on the inside,” he said of European countries.

  “Almost all the grain exported from Ukraine is sent not to the poorest developing countries, but to European Union countries,” Putin told an economic forum in the eastern city of Vladivostok on Wednesday.

  “I will certainly consult on this subject with the President of Turkey, Mr. Erdogan, because it was him and me who worked out a mechanism for the export of Ukrainian grain,” Putin said. Putin and Erdogan are expected to meet on the sidelines of a regional summit hosted by Uzbekistan next week. China’s Xi Jinping is also expected to meet with the Russian leader. 

  Russian President Vladimir Putin says the West deceived poor nations via Ukraine grain deal, claiming Ukraine needed access to sea shipping to stop surging food prices & risk of famine. Almost all grain is flowing into the EU & not the poorest countries.pic.twitter.com/bPdXHMKI4w

  — Fiorella Isabel (@FiorellaIsabelM) September 7, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  CNN and Reuters have attempted to fact-check Putin’s words, and are rejecting his assessment: 

  In a statement to CNN, the United Nations said that under the Black Sea Grain Initiative, roughly 30% of “grains and other foodstuffs” have made it to low- and lower-middle-income countries, or approximately 700,000 metric tons.

  Among countries classified by the World Bank as low- or lower-middle-income, the UN says that 10% of the initiative’s exports have been sent to Egypt, 5% to Iran, 4% to India, 3% to Sudan, 2% to Yemen, 2% to Kenya, 1% to Somalia, 1% to Djibouti, and less than 1% to Lebanon.

  If Russia indeed does either back out or attempt to renegotiate the UN grain deal, which required the assent of both the Ukrainian and Russian sides, as well as Turkey, this would mark the collapse of the only ‘bright spot’ to come out of negotiations thus far throughout six months of conflict. It would also no doubt add to growing global economic woes amid rising energy and food prices. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 09/07/2022 – 23:05

• Taibbi: The People Versus The Unelected
  Taibbi: The People Versus The Unelected

  Authored by Matt Taibbi via TK News,

  Review of The Lords of Easy Money, by Christopher Leonard, Simon and Schuster, 384 pages

  Click here for Q&A with the author.

  

  In Chicago on July 8, 1896, a former Nebraska congressman named William Jennings Bryan strode onstage at the Democratic National Convention and delivered one of the most famous speeches in American history. A populist and free silver advocate, Jennings stood in opposition to the Wall Street-backed Republican Party, which sought more power for creditors by supporting a gold standard. “You shall not press down upon the brow of labor this crown of thorns,” Bryan thundered, to close his address. “You shall not crucify mankind upon a cross of gold.”

  Bryan’s speech can feel inaccessible today because it belonged to an era when “managing the money supply was still in the public realm of democratic action,” as author Christopher Leonard puts it in his remarkable book The Lords of Easy Money. The fights that now take place in the secrecy of the Federal Reserve were then a near-constant concern of congress and a source of bitter conflict between east and west, rich and poor, city-dwellers and farmers. Silver dollars had the de facto impact of increasing the money supply and making farm or prospecting debt easier to repay, while the “organized wealth” Bryan opposed sought a gold standard to keep returns on those loans high. The “Cross of Gold” speech came just after a Great Financial Panic in 1893, and though he would lose to William McKinley, Bryan set the terms for generations of controversies about who got to control the levers of finance.

  On May 15, 2010, at a similar juncture a few years removed from a financial crash, a little-known Federal Reserve Bank president from Kansas City named Thomas Hoenig gave a controversial interview to the Wall Street Journal, called “The Fed’s Monetary Dissident.” Hoenig spoke as the economy was pulling out of the 2008 emergency, and as a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee or FOMC, which helps set interest rates, he took the rare step of publicly disagreeing with peers. “We’ve gotten through the crisis,” he said. “We ought to be thinking about the long run.” Hoenig violated an unspoken taboo, reminding readers that the Fed’s work isn’t just a technocratic process, but “also an allocative policy,” i.e. one that helped pick society’s economic winners and losers — the stuff of politics.

  Under the leadership of its soft-spoken, bearded, nebbishy new chairman Ben Bernanke, the central bank had just undertaken the financial equivalent of a Normandy invasion in response to the 2008 crash, adding $1.2 trillion to the money supply in two years, or more than it had in total in every year between 1913 and 2008. Hoenig was concerned because instead of taking early signs of recovery as a chance to pull back, Bernanke was pouring more troops into theater, flooding the economy with money with plans to keep borrowing rates at or near zero for “an extended period” (it would turn out to be ten years). Hoenig worried the Fed was addicting Wall Street to cheap cash, upsetting the delicate balance of financial power he’d spent a life trying to maintain. “I can’t guarantee the carpenter down the street a margin,” he said. “I really don’t think we should be guaranteeing Wall Street… by guaranteeing them a zero or near zero interest rate environment.”

  Hoenig’s clipped remarks didn’t land with the fanfare of Bryan’s grandiloquent oratory. In fact, it’s hard to imagine two men with less in common, stylistically. Hoenig was and is a reserved former soldier and number-cruncher who disdained limelight and believed in economy in all things, including words, while Bryan was a man born for the soapbox. Moreover, in a misdiagnosis that that persists to this day, Hoenig’s remarks were criticized as the tightwad meanderings of a hard-money reactionary, an impression that grew stronger when “The Fed’s dissident” was lionized in congressional hearings by the likes of “End the Fed” campaigner and gold-standard advocate Ron Paul. If Bryan wanted to loosen the money supply, and Hoenig wanted to rein it in, what linked them? What could American history’s prototype populist possibly share with a fusty economic traditionalist like Hoenig?

  In fact there were similarities. Hoenig’s critics tended to see things backwards, pegging beliefs of his we’d now recognize as economic populism as conservatism, and more importantly mis-labeling the bank-friendly, trickle-down policies of Bernanke as liberal progressivism. This radical switcheroo, turning traditional perceptions of liberalism and conservatism on their head, soon spread to non-financial arenas, as elite officials pitched themselves as progressives, deriding opponents as conspiracist reactionaries. Hoenig is essentially patient zero of this phenomenon, and his story is explained brilliantly in The Lords of Easy Money, in my mind the first book that makes the inner workings of the Fed truly accessible to ordinary readers.

  Leonard gets particularly high marks because the Fed — whose officials always used dullness and inscrutability to deflect public scrutiny — is nearly impossible to make interesting and understandable. Leonard pulls it off. A neophyte will come away from The Lords of Easy Money understanding the mechanics of money creation, and the bank’s awesome influence in widening the wealth gap and driving political divisions.

  Subscribers can read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 09/07/2022 – 22:45

• "Winter Is Coming": Taiwan Export Slowdown Implies Darkening Clouds For Global Economy
  “Winter Is Coming”: Taiwan Export Slowdown Implies Darkening Clouds For Global Economy

  The slowdown in Taiwan’s exports is further evidence that the risks to the global economic outlook are tilted to the downside and could imply more turmoil is ahead. 

  A statement from the Finance Ministry in Taipei said exports grew a paltry 2% in August compared with the same month last year — the slowest pace of growth since July 2020, when exports only grew by .3%. Bloomberg noted economists were expecting an increase of 11.6%. 

  

  Imports also decelerated, rising by 3.5% in August, compared to a 19.4% expansion in July. Economists were anticipating an 8.7% rise. 

  Beatrice Tsai, the Ministry of Finance’s chief statistician, said the trade slowdown suggests “winter is coming.” She outlined how double-digit export growth in the third quarter is unlikely, adding September exports could contract by 3% versus a year ago. 

  Taiwan’s dominance in semiconductor fabrication is a good barometer of global chip demand. 

  “While demand for integrated circuits and mineral products continued to be hot, export sales of traditional products such as plastics and base metals were sluggish due to weak end-user demand,” according to a statement from the finance ministry.

  The slowdown in exports is a troubling sign that the global tech sector could be entering an alarming downturn due to lackluster consumer demand worldwide: 

  “There are clearer signs showing that the tech sector has entered a downturn, driven by weakening global demand for mobile phones, PCs and other consumer electronics products, which also weighs on demand for the upstream semiconductors,” said Ma Tieying, an economist at DBS Group Holdings Ltd.

  Some macro-tourists closely watch Taiwan’s export data as an early indicator of turning points for the global economy. 

  Global growth from Asia to Europe to the US has shown signs of deceleration this summer (IMF warned about this in July), with fears major economies could slide into recession amid a flurry of central banks increasing interest rates to combat the highest inflation in decades. 

  A notable index followed by many is JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI. The latest print last month showed global manufacturing is nearing contraction. It fell from 51.1 in July to 50.3 in August. 

  

  To sum up, consumer demand is weakening in an environment of high inflation. Central banks aggressively raise interest rates that could tilt developed and emerging economies into recession. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 09/07/2022 – 22:25

• Hedges: Stop Pretending US Is A Functioning Democracy
  Hedges: Stop Pretending US Is A Functioning Democracy

  Authored by Chris Hedges via Scherpost.com,

  There are no institutions, including the press, an electoral system, the imperial presidency, the courts or the penal system, that can be defined as democratic. Only the fiction of democracy remains.

  

  End Game. (Mr. Fish)

  There is a fatal disconnect between a political system that promises democratic equality and freedom while carrying out socioeconomic injustices that result in grotesque income inequality and political stagnation.

  Decades in the making, this disconnect has extinguished American democracy. The steady stripping away of economic and political power was ignored by a hyperventilating press that thundered against the barbarians at the gate — Osama bin Laden, Saddam Hussein, the Taliban, ISIS, Vladimir Putin — while ignoring the barbarians in our midst.

  The slow-motion coup is over. Corporations and the billionaire class have won. There are no institutions, including the press, an electoral system that is little more than legalized bribery, the imperial presidency, the courts or the penal system, that can be defined as democratic. Only the fiction of democracy remains.

  The political philosopher Sheldon Wolin in Democracy Incorporated: Managed Democracy and the Specter of Inverted Totalitarianism calls the U.S. system “inverted totalitarianism.” The façade of democratic institutions and the rhetoric, symbols and iconography of state power have not changed. The Constitution remains a sacred document.

  Collective Self-Delusion

  

  July 4, 2019, Washington, D.C. (Joe Lauria)

  The U.S. continues to posit itself as a champion of opportunity, freedom, human rights and civil liberties, even as half the country struggles at subsistence level, militarized police gun down and imprison the poor with impunity, and the primary business of the state is war. 

  This collective self-delusion masks what America has become — a nation where the citizenry has been stripped of economic and political power and where the brutal militarism practiced overseas is practiced at home.

  In classical totalitarian regimes, such as Nazi Germany or Stalin’s Soviet Union, economics was subordinate to politics. But under inverted totalitarianism, the reverse is true. There is no attempt, unlike fascism and state socialism, to address the needs of the poor. Rather, the poorer and more vulnerable you are, the more you are exploited, thrust into a hellish debt peonage from which there is no escape.

  Social services, from education to health care, are anemic, nonexistent or privatized to gouge the impoverished. Further ravaged by 8.5 percent inflation, wages have decelerated sharply since 1979. Jobs often do not offer benefits or security.

  [You can watch an interview I conducted in 2014 with Sheldon Wolin here.]

  In my book America: The Farewell Tour, I examined the social indicators of a nation in serious trouble. Life expectancy in the U.S. fell in 2021, for the second year in a row. There have been over 300 mass shootings this year. Close to a million people have died from drug overdoses since 1999. There are an average of 132 suicides every day. Nearly 42 percent of  the country is classified as obese, with one in 11 adults considered severely obese.

  These diseases of despair are rooted in the disconnect between a society’s expectations of a better future and the reality of a system that does not provide a meaningful place for its citizens. Loss of a sustainable income and social stagnation causes more than financial distress.

  Diseased Society

  

  Evicted from their homes, Seattle. (Joe Lauria)

  As Émile Durkheim points out in The Division of Labor in Society, it severs the social bonds that give us meaning. A decline in status and power, an inability to advance, a lack of education and adequate health care, and a loss of hope result in crippling forms of humiliation. This humiliation fuels loneliness, frustration, anger and feelings of worthlessness. 

  In Hitler and the Germans, the political philosopher Eric Voegelin dismisses the idea that Hitler — gifted in oratory and political opportunism but poorly educated and vulgar — mesmerized and seduced the German people. The Germans, he writes, supported Hitler and the “grotesque, marginal figures” surrounding him because he embodied the pathologies of a diseased society, one beset by economic collapse and hopelessness.

  Voegelin defines stupidity as a “loss of reality.” The loss of reality means a “stupid” person cannot “rightly orient his action in the world, in which he lives.” The demagogue, who is always an idiote, is not a freak or social mutation. The demagogue expresses the society’s zeitgeist.

  The acceleration of deindustrialization by the 1970s, as I write in America, The Farewell Tour, created a crisis that forced the ruling elites to devise a new political paradigm, as Stuart Hall explains in Policing the Crisis. Trumpeted by a compliant media, this paradigm shifted its focus from the common good to race, crime and law and order.  It told those undergoing profound economic and political change that their suffering stemmed not from rampant militarism and corporate greed but from a threat to national integrity.

  The old consensus that buttressed New Deal programs and the welfare state was attacked as enabling criminal Black youth, “welfare queens” and other alleged social parasites. This opened the door to a faux populism, begun by Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher, which supposedly championed family values, traditional morality, individual autonomy, law and order, the Christian faith and the return to a mythical past, at least for white Americans.

  The Democratic Party, especially under Bill Clinton, moved steadily to the right until it became largely indistinguishable from the establishment Republican Party to which it is now allied. Donald Trump, and the 74 million people who voted for him in 2020, were the result.

  Political Theater

  

  Biden speaks in Philadelphia. (White House Photo)

  It will do no good, as Biden did on Thursday in Philadelphia, to demonize Trump and his supporters in the way they demonize Biden and the Democrats. Biden, raising clenched fists, backlit by Stygian red lights and flanked by two U.S. Marines in dress uniforms, announced from his Dantesque stage set that “Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans represent an extremism that threatens the very foundations of our Republic.” 

  Trump called the speech the most “vicious, hateful and divisive speech ever delivered by an American president” and attacked Biden as “an enemy of the state.” 

  Biden’s frontal assault widens the divide. It solidifies a system where voters do not vote for what they want, since neither side delivers anything of substance, but against what they despise. Biden did not address our socioeconomic crisis or offer solutions. It was political theater.

  Anti-politics masquerades as politics. No sooner does one money-drenched election cycle end, the next one begins, perpetuating what Wolin calls “politics without politics.” These elections do not permit citizens to participate in power.

  The public is allowed to voice opinions to scripted questions, which are repackaged by publicists, pollsters, political consultants and advertisers and fed back to them. Few races, including only 14 percent of congres­sional districts, are considered competitive. Politicians do not campaign on substantial issues but on skillfully manufactured political personalities and emotionally charged culture wars. 

  Omnipotence 

  

  The Pentagon. (Joe Lauria)

  The militarists, who have created a state within a state and who plunge us into one military debacle after another, consuming half of all discretionary spending, are omnipotent. The corporations and billionaires, which orchestrated a virtual tax boycott and gutted regulation and oversight, are omnipotent.

  The industrialists who wrote trade deals to profit from unemployment and underemployment of U.S. workers and sweatshop labor overseas are omnipotent. The insurance and pharmaceutical industries that run the healthcare system, whose primary concern is profit not health and who are responsible for 16 percent of the worldwide reported deaths from COVID-19 although we are less than 5 percent of the global population, are omnipotent.

  The intelligence agencies that carry out wholesale surveillance of the public are omnipotent.

  The courts that reinterpret laws to strip them of their original meaning to ensure corporate control and excuse corporate crimes, are omnipotent. The courts gave us Citizens United, for example, which permits unlimited corporate financing of elections by claiming it upholds the right to petition the government and is a form of free speech.

  Spectacle

  

  July 4, 2019, parade in Washington, D.C. (Joe Lauria)

  Politics is spectacle, a tawdry carnival act where the constant jockeying for power by the ruling class dominates the news cycles, as if politics were a race to the Super Bowl. The real business of ruling is hidden, carried out by corporate lobbyists who write the legislation, banks that loot the Treasury, the war industry and an oligarchy that determines who gets elected and who does not. It is impossible to vote against the interests of Goldman Sachs, the fossil fuel industry or Raytheon, no matter which party is in office.

  The moment any segment of the population, left or right, refuses to participate in this illusion, the face of inverted totalitarianism resembles the face of classical totalitarianism, as Julian Assange is experiencing.

  Our corporate overlords and militarists prefer the decorum of George W. Bush, Barack Obama and Joe Biden. But they worked closely with Trump and are willing to do so again.

  What they will not allow are reformers such as Bernie Sanders, who might challenge, however tepidly, their obscene accumulation of wealth and power. This inability to reform, to restore democratic participation and address social inequality, means the inevitable death of the republic.

  Biden and the Democrats rail against the cultish Republican Party and their threat to democracy, but they too are the problem.

  *  *  *

  Author’s Note to Readers: There is now no way left for me to continue to write a weekly column for ScheerPost and produce my weekly television show without your help. The walls are closing in, with startling rapidity, on independent journalism, with the elites, including the Democratic Party elites, clamoring for more and more censorship. Bob Scheer, who runs ScheerPost on a shoestring budget, and I will not waiver in our commitment to independent and honest journalism, and we will never put ScheerPost behind a paywall, charge a subscription for it, sell your data or accept advertising. Please, if you can, sign up at chrishedges.substack.com so I can continue to post my Monday column on ScheerPost and produce my weekly television show, “The Chris Hedges Report.”

  This column is from Scheerpost, for which Chris Hedges writes a regular column. Click here to sign up for email alerts.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 09/07/2022 – 22:05

• Xi's First Overseas Meeting In Years Will Be With Putin In Uzbekistan Next Week
  Xi’s First Overseas Meeting In Years Will Be With Putin In Uzbekistan Next Week

  Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed Wednesday while addressing the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) in Vladivostok that he will soon meet in person with Chinese President Xi Jinping, which will mark a significant first bilateral summit since Russia launched the Ukraine invasion on Feb.24. 

  Putin told the forum held in Russia’s far east that “I hope to see Xi Jinping in Uzbekistan soon.” As we described earlier, the Chinese delegation was the largest in attendance for the annual economic meeting.

  

  Kremlin officials also confirmed to the Associated Press that “Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping to meet next week at summit in Uzbekistan.” The two large nuclear-armed nations also just wrapped up a week of joint war games, among multiple other nations represented, at Vostok 2022 in the same far eastern region of Russia.

  CNN notes that “On Wednesday, China’s number three leader Li Zhanshu, a member of the Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo Standing Committee, became the highest ranking official to leave China since 2020, when he arrived in Vladivostok to attend the Eastern Economic Forum. Li was expected to meet Putin on Wednesday, according to Tass.”

  As for President Xi, he rarely leaves the country, and the Uzbekistan summit will be his first overseas trip since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020.

  Russia’s ambassador to Beijing Andrey Denisov described the significance in state media:

  “This summit promises to be interesting, because it will be the first full-fledged summit since the pandemic,” Denisov said, according to Tass.

  “I do not want to say that online summits are not full-fledged, but still, direct communication between leaders is a different quality of discussion … We are planning a serious, full-fledged meeting of our leaders with a detailed agenda, which we are now, in fact, working on with our Chinese partners,” the diplomat said.

  On Tuesday the Kremlin had issued a statement underscoring the importance growing Chinese cooperation: “Russia-China relations of comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation are developing progressively,” it said just ahead of Putin’s address to the EEF.

  The statement further hailed “China’s balanced approach to the Ukraine crisis” and its “understanding” of what’s driving Moscow’s ‘special operation’ in Ukraine. 

  Vladimir Putin oversaw “Vostok 2022”, the military drills in Russia’s far east involving over 50,000 troops from 14 countries pic.twitter.com/EHtMIaY0XP

  — South China Morning Post (@SCMPNews) September 7, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Just days before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Moscow and Beijing had declared a “no limits” partnership amid a growing standoff with the West, which has since included unprecedented sanctions and economic war against Russia as punishment for its military offensive.

  In October, Russia and China held joint naval drills in the Sea of Japan. Days later, Russian and Chinese warships held their first joint patrols in the western Pacific. The next month, South Korea’s military said it had scrambled fighter jets after two Chinese and seven Russian warplanes intruded into its air defense identification zone during what Beijing called regular training. Thus it’s clear that the past years have seen these two nuclear-armed superpowers grow in not only economic cooperation but military coordination as well.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 09/07/2022 – 21:45

• ECB Preview: 50 or 75?
  ECB Preview: 50 or 75?

  Submitted by Newsquawk

  Summary:

  • Up until a few weeks ago, expectations for the September meeting had been coalescing around the prospect of an additional 50bps hike by the ECB, taking the deposit rate to 0.5%. However, a source report on 26th August revealed that some policymakers wish to discuss a 75bps rate rise due to the deterioration in the inflation outlook, with the prospect of a looming recession not a justification for slowing or halting policy normalisation.
  • Thereafter, a speech by Germany’s Schnabel reinforced the Governing Council’s tightening ambitions by noting that both the likelihood and the cost of current high inflation becoming entrenched in expectations are uncomfortably high, and she added that central banks need to act forcefully in this environment.
  • August HICP data saw the headline rate climb to 9.1% Y/Y from 8.9%, and the super-core metric advance to 4.3% Y/Y from 4.0%, prompting concerns that second-round effects from energy inflation are making their way through the economy.
  • Accordingly, the likes of Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse, BofA, JPM and several others adjusted their calls in favour of a 75bps move, an outcome that markets are currently assigning with an approximate 95% probability. Looking further ahead, markets are pricing just under 175bps of tightening by year-end (including September).
  • Elsewhere, aspects of the Q&A will likely focus on the ECB’s plans for its APP reinvestments after reports suggested that it could begin discussing ending reinvestments, albeit a decision is not expected to be forthcoming with rates viewed as the preferred tool for tightening.
  • The accompanying staff economic forecasts will likely see upward revisions to the 2022 and 2023 inflation projections of 6.8% and 3.5% respectively, with Morgan Stanley pencilling in an upgrade to the 2024 forecast of 2.1% to 2.2%. From a growth perspective, 2022 GDP is expected to forecast trivially higher at 2.9% vs. 2.8% in June, with 2023 growth expected to be cut to 0.4% from 2.1%.

  PRIOR MEETING: Despite expectations for a 25bps hike across the ECB’s three key rates, policymakers opted to “go big” and deliver 50bps worth of tightening, taking the deposit rate to 0% and therefore drawing a line under the Bank’s NIRP. Alongside this, the Bank refrained from providing explicit guidance for the September meeting and instead adopted a meeting-by-meeting approach. The Governing Council was also able to agree on an anti-fragmentation tool named the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI), aimed at ensuring that the monetary policy stance is transmitted smoothly across all euro area countries. That said, PEPP will remain the first line of defence to counter risks to the transmission mechanism related to the pandemic. President Lagarde said that the Governing Council rallied around the consensus of a 50bps hike and that the ECB is accelerating the normalisation process, but not changing the ultimate point of arrival. In terms of the details of TPI, Lagarde noted that all nations are eligible, the ECB is capable of “going big” on the instrument, whilst the activation of TPI is at the discretion of the Governing Council. Furthermore, the followup press release noted that purchases under TPI could be suspended if it is judged that persistent tensions are due to country fundamentals.

  RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS: August inflation metrics continued to advance further with Y/Y HICP climbing to 9.1% from 8.9% and the super-core metric advancing to 4.3% from 4.0%, prompting concerns that second-round effects from energy inflation are making their way through the economy. The Eurozone’s 5y5y inflation expectations metric sits around 2.16% compared to 2.05% at the time of the July meeting. From a growth perspective, Q2 Q/Q GDP was revised lower to 0.6% from 0.7%. The more timely PMI data showed the August composite-wide metric falling to 48.9 from 49.9 amid a decline in services to 49.8 from 51.2 and a drop in manufacturing to 46.9 from 49.8. The report made for grim reading with S&P Global noting “the latest PMI data for the eurozone point to an economy in contraction during the third quarter of the year”, adding that “cost of living pressures mean that the recovery in the services sector following the lifting of pandemic restrictions has ebbed away”. On the employment front, S&P Global stated that “the rebuilding of workforces following the pandemic is also losing steam, with firms increasingly reluctant to hire  additional staff”. The Eurozone unemployment rate as of July, remains at its historical low of 6.6%.

  RECENT COMMUNICATIONS: At Jackson Hole, Germany’s Schnabel (27th Aug) stated that both the likelihood and the cost of current high inflation becoming entrenched in expectations are uncomfortably high, adding that central banks need to act forcefully in this environment. Her German counterpart Nagel (30th Aug) echoed this sentiment noting that rate hikes should not be delayed by fears of a possible recession. Other known hawks on the Board such as Latvia’s Kazaks, Austria’s Holzmann and Estonia’s Mueller suggested that 50bps and 75bps should be on the table for the upcoming meeting, whilst Netherland’s Knot noted that he is leaning towards a 75bps move. Elsewhere, the typically more centrist Villeroy of France (27th Aug) suggested that the Bank could be at the neutral rate before year-end with another significant step in September (his estimate of neutral is somewhere between 1-2%). Belgium’s Wunsch (30th Aug) suggested that the Bank could need to raise rates to a level that starts to restrict economic activity or above what is considered the “neutral” rate. Chief Economist Lane (29th Aug) called for a more measured approach by suggesting that it makes sense to allow the financial system to absorb rate changes in a step-by-step manner, adding that “the same cumulative rate hike over a fixed interval is less likely to generate adverse feedback loops if it takes the form of a multistep calibrated series rather than a smaller number of larger rate increases”. Known-dove Stournaras of Greece (30th Aug) stated that further and gradual normalisation will be appropriate, adding that the ECB does not need to take very large steps. Stournaras estimates the neutral rate to be between 0.5-1.5%.

  RATES: Consensus expects the ECB to raise the deposit rate by 75bps to 0.75%. However, there is a notable split in analyst views as per Reuters polling with 34/67 expecting 75bps, 29 expecting 50bps and four expecting just a 25bps move. Market pricing is more convinced over a larger-than-usual increment with 75bps priced at a circa 95% probability. Expectations for a 75bps move were stoked after a source report on 26th August revealed that some policymakers wish to discuss a 75bps rate rise due to the deterioration in the inflation outlook, with the prospect of a looming recession not a justification for slowing or halting policy normalisation. Thereafter, a speech by Germany’s Schnabel and rhetoric from other officials (see above) reinforced the Governing Council’s tightening ambitions. Accordingly, and in the wake of another firmer-than-expected Eurozone inflation report, the likes of Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse, BofA, JPM and several others adjusted their calls in favour of a 75bps move with desks of the view that such a move would provide policymakers an opportunity to front-load hikes and signal their tightening ambitions. That said, the likes of ING, who expect just a 50bps move, think that such a magnitude would be a compromise, with a 75bps rise looking like “one bridge too far” for the doves. Beyond Thursday’s decision, markets price in around 100bps of tightening (excluding this week) by year-end which would imply 50bps moves at the October and November meetings. One nuance for the press conference and highlighted by SGH Macro is that markets will be looking to see whether a 75bps move would see 25bps “borrowed or brought forward from a future hike” given that at the July meeting, President Lagarde suggested that the larger-than-expected move did not change the ultimate destination of the policy path. Elsewhere, market participants will be looking for any indications as to where the ECB sees the neutral rate (generally considered to be somewhere between 1-2%) and how far the ECB is willing to go above the neutral rate into restrictive territory.

  

  BALANCE SHEET: At the July meeting, the Governing Council was also able to agree on an anti-fragmentation tool named the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI), aimed at ensuring that the monetary policy stance is transmitted smoothly across all euro area countries. That said, it was noted that PEPP remains the first line of defence to counter risks to the transmission mechanism related to the pandemic. In terms of the details of TPI, Lagarde noted that all nations are eligible, the ECB is capable of “going big” on the instrument, whilst the activation of TPI is at the discretion of the Governing Council. Lagarde later clarified that the four conditions for TPI are as follows: 1. Compliance of EU fiscal framework, 2. Absence of severe macro imbalances, 3. Fiscal sustainability, 4. Sound and sustainable macro policies. The follow-up press release noted that purchases under TPI could be suspended if it is judged that persistent tensions are due to country fundamentals. Traders will be cognisant of the upcoming Italian election on September 25th. Elsewhere, aspects of the Q&A will likely focus on the ECB’s plans for its APP reinvestments. Recent reports suggested that the Bank could begin discussing ending reinvestments at an upcoming meeting, albeit September is judged to be too soon for such a discussion with rate hikes viewed as the preferred tool for tightening. As such, Lagarde is unlikely to give too much away on this front. Furthermore, when such a move comes, it will potentially need to be squared up against ongoing reinvestments under PEPP and any potential purchases under TPI.

  ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS: The accompanying staff economic forecasts will likely see upward revisions to the 2022 and 2023 inflation projections of 6.8% and 3.5% respectively to somewhere in the region of 8.1% and 4.5%. As ever, the 2024 projection will be a key focus to see how the Governing Council judges the impact of current policy on the medium-term inflation outlook, with the current 2.1% forecast expected to be nudged higher to 2.2%. It is worth noting that the projections will likely need to be taken with a huge pinch of salt given the uncertainty of the outlook and the fluidity of the European gas situation. On that very point, the cut-off date for submitting forecasts will have pre-dated the recent shutting off of NS1 which subsequently sent European gas prices surging. From a growth perspective, 2022 GDP is expected to forecast trivially higher at 2.9% vs. 2.8% in June with 2023 growth expected to be cut to 0.4% from 2.1% and 2024 to be lowered to 1.6% from 2.1%.

  MARKET REACTIONS: Finally, ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting, the team from ING Economics analyze four potential scenarios on a scale from dovish to ultra-hawkish and what this can mean for EUR/USD and EUR rates (full report link here):

  

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 09/07/2022 – 21:25

• Maryland County To Enforce Youth Curfew After "Armed And Dangerous Children" Spark Murderous Month
  Maryland County To Enforce Youth Curfew After “Armed And Dangerous Children” Spark Murderous Month

  A county in Maryland near Washington, D.C., just recorded the deadliest month in decades. Local government officials are fed up with the surge in violent crime and announced a curfew for young people, which will last for a month, according to The Washington Times. 

  Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks held a press conference Monday about the new curfew would begin next weekend and last for 30 days. Anyone under 17 will be forbidden from public areas between 10 pm and 5 am on weeknights unless escorted by a parent. On weekends the curfew begins at midnight and will be enforced by police.  

  Alsobrooks’ announcement comes as county police investigated 24 killings in August alone, a record high. 

  

  She said an “eye-popping” 430 arrests of juveniles this year is a doubling of last year’s figures — adding a lot of violent crime is being committed by young people. 

  “At this point, these kids don’t just need a hug, they need to be held accountable,” Alsobrooks said. “I know it’s not a popular thing to say, but it’s a fair question: Where are their parents? Where are the aunties, where are the uncles and other family members who are responsible for them?”

  She warned there’d been a dangerous spike in carjackings by “armed and dangerous children,” calling it a severe problem. 

  The last time a youth curfew was implemented in the county was in 1995. Punishments for parents are fines up to $250.

  Prince George’s County Police Chief Malik Aziz said the number of juveniles being repeatedly arrested is “deeply troubling.” 

  Gun blog Bearing Arms pointed out: 

  “So I have to give Prince George’s County credit for looking for ways to reduce homicides that don’t involve gun control, but I’m not sure interfering with the rights of an entire segment of people of whom a small percentage are bad actors, but still account for less than a quarter of all violent crimes is the way to go.”

  … and what happens if the curfew doesn’t work?

  Curious what you think… weigh in. Do you think enforcing the curfew will help stop the violence?
  Prince George’s County Executive Alsobrooks announced Monday a curfew that would ban youth from public places late at night, citing an increase in gun violence & carjackings. pic.twitter.com/dysRnrxvab

  — Annie Yu (@AnnieYuTV) September 6, 2022 

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 09/07/2022 – 21:05

• Despite Unprecedented Tightening This Year, The Fed's Still Nowhere Near 'Destination Restrictive Territory'
  Despite Unprecedented Tightening This Year, The Fed’s Still Nowhere Near ‘Destination Restrictive Territory’

  By Ven Ram, Bloomberg markets analyst and reporter

  US nominal yields are quite the rage these days.

  And the dollar is having a heyday like no other, with the yen, the euro and the pound desperately in need of some smelling salts – except that there is just no one to nurse the non-dollars back to health in quick order.

  

  Underpinning the inexorable increase in dollar-denominated nominal yields and the chutzpah in the greenback is, of course, the surge in inflation-adjusted yields in the state-side.

  Five-year real rates have shot up some 100 basis points in the space of just over a month, and so have 10-year rates – more or less.

  

  And yet it doesn’t look like we are almost there when it comes to the end of possible strength in the dollar and the surge in nominal rates.

  Witness Fed Richmond President Thomas Barkin remarking that the “destination is real rates in positive territory and my intent would be to maintain them there until such time as we are really convinced that we put inflation to bed.”

  That, of course, means that after spades of tightening so far this year, the Fed is still nowhere in sight of Destination Restrictive Territory.

  If the Fed was naive (or artful enough to make everyone buy the story) in projecting just 75 basis points of increase for all of 2022 at the end of last year, now the boot is fully on the other foot.

  Having already raised rates by 225 basis points, the prospect of taking it higher by another 150 basis points in short order is now more or less the base case.

  On the other side of the pond, the European Central Bank is prepared to be more hawkish than even real hawks that spread their wings and soar over the sky… and that means euro-area rates are going to end up a lot higher this year than anyone imagined.

  Still, that’s not to say that President Christine Lagarde and her governing council will be able to match Chair Jerome Powell and Co. in their fire power. And that will still mean vulnerability for the euro.

  And we haven’t even mentioned the Bank of Japan’s nonchalance amid all this tumult, which of course leaves the yen exposed toward 150 per dollar.

  And there is no need to shed a tear for the pound.

  If you are going to fiddle as London burns and inflation comes scorching down, you could hardly persuade currency traders to accept deeply negative real yields as compensation and put up with it with a happy face.

  It just ain’t happening, Mr. Andrew Bailey, unless the Bank of England decides to amuse everyone with fairy tales. Not that anyone is in the mood for it…

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 09/07/2022 – 20:45

• When The Tide Turns, Brace For A Face-Ripping Yen Rally
  When The Tide Turns, Brace For A Face-Ripping Yen Rally

  As discussed earlier, the yen (and the yuan, and the euro, and pretty much every non-USD currency) is in the midst of a steep sell-off, but – as Bloomberg’s Simon White warns – when the trend turns, underlying processes are primed to see it rise significantly.

  As we pointed out this afternoon, the Japanese currency is on course for its weakest annual performance versus the dollar since at least the 1960s…

  

  … and as White notes, on the surface the reason is simple: the Federal Reserve is raising rates aggressively while the Bank of Japan is keeping them ultra-low. But the underlying processes are less obvious

  Understanding the yen means understanding capital flows. Japan is a net capital exporter, which means the capital flows of domestic investors, rather than foreign investors, are the dominant long-term driver of the currency.

  Momentum is driving the yen now, but its fall this year likely has two principal underlying drivers:

  • Japanese investors have been buying more foreign equities
  • Rising energy prices are leading to more capital outflow

  Yield differentials are having little direct impact. The rise in US short-term yields relative to long-term ones has made FX-hedged USTs unattractive to Japanese investors.

  Instead, the Japanese have ramped up net purchases of foreign equities. Unlike debt, equity purchases tend to be unhedged or underhedged, meaning the flow is yen-negative.

  Rising energy prices are also leaning on the yen. In normal times, when energy prices are more contained, a weaker yen boosts exports and therefore Japanese growth. But growth is not picking up. Exports have risen, but imports have climbed even more, meaning the trade balance is now in deficit.

  With not enough dollars from exports to pay for more expensive energy, in aggregate Japan is selling foreign assets — mainly debt securities — to get dollars. As debt is more likely to be FX hedged, unwinding the hedge is yen-negative as there is no offsetting capital flow back into Japan.

  

  Normally a large yen-stabilizing flow would come from Japanese investors FX hedging their international portfolios, but it doesn’t look like this is happening. The chart below shows Japan listed-companies’ FX-hedging sensitivity is low right now. Simply put, if the trend in the yen is bolstering your returns, why stand in the way of it?

  

  Moreover, foreigners have been largely absent from Japanese asset markets. Also, tourism has slumped. Japan has been all but closed to foreigners since the pandemic, taking the net annual travel surplus of over $50 billion in 2019 to almost zero now.

  But here’s the thing about the yen — it’s like a catapult. The more it’s stretched, the greater its propensity to rebound.

  Japan is the world’s largest net creditor. Rather than triggering a capital outflow, any domestic shock in Japan tends to trigger net inflows as capital is repatriated. With a net international investment position (NIIP) of almost $3.5 trillion, the amount of capital returning is potentially vast, with a powerful strengthening effect on the yen.

  The yen’s slide is slowing growth, making a real-growth shock more likely, especially as there are signs inflation is moving to a higher and unstable regime. Furthermore, the risk is increasing the government or central bank intervenes to stabilize the currency, or the BoJ abandons or loosens its cap for 10-year JGB yields.

  Any of those would trigger a reversal in the yen that could very quickly become self-reinforcing. Firms would be more inclined to reset FX hedges if they thought the yen’s trend had reversed. Foreign assets would be sold for yen as capital would be returned home.

  Demand for dollars to pay for energy would decline. Foreigners would be more inclined to buy Japanese assets if they thought the currency was on an upward trend. And as the border is gradually opened up, there will be plenty of pent-up demand for cheap Japanese holidays and business travel.

  The yen after such a catalyst could very quickly change direction and rally hard. Suddenly, USDJPY at 120 looks more likely than USDJPY at 160. Options currently imply the second is seven times more probable than the first by the end of the year. As contrarian trades go, they don’t get much more compelling than a stronger yen.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 09/07/2022 – 20:25

• The 'Inflation Reduction Act' Will Increase Inflation & Impoverish Middle-Class Americans
  The ‘Inflation Reduction Act’ Will Increase Inflation & Impoverish Middle-Class Americans

  Authored by Pete Hoekstra via The Gatestone Institute,

  House Speaker Nancy Pelosi wondered aloud how Republicans could vote against Mother Earth. West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin possibly wondered how Republicans could vote against his so-called “Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).” In reality, Pelosi was closer to describing the contents of the IRA than was Manchin.

  The IRA is revolutionary in what it purports to do for the climate. The only impact it will have on inflation is to increase it.

  

  The IRA deliberately sets about impoverishing many Americans by increasing taxes “on everyone” and increasing tax audits at the same time as prices are skyrocketing. Imposing steeper taxes at a time of steeper prices may not mean that much to the rich, but has the effect of a stealth double-tax that crushes especially middle- and working-class families, who now find themselves forced to choose between necessities such as food, gasoline or rent. Reports state that 42% of Americans are struggling financially.

  The political theory governing this economic sledgehammer seems to be seems to be that a bigger, centralized government that controls people is “better” — at least for the politicians — than a government that prizes the individual, individual freedoms and the ability to spend hard-earned money the way he or she wishes, rather than how government chooses to spend it for him. This Marxist view looks at people not as individuals, but as a collective for the government to organize as it wishes or “thinks best” (for whom? The government or the people it is organizing?) — not quite what the framers of our Constitution had in mind. It is apparently easier for a government to control citizens without freedoms – economic or otherwise, as in China or North Korea — than citizens with free choice, unpredictability and the opportunity to achieve the American Dream — who will not as dependent on the government to be a nanny-state for them. The government can then promise everyone goodies to keep them dependent, while it decides what to dole out, when and to whom: what cars you must buy, what doctors and healthcare you are allowed to have; what “social justice” (here and here) and gender issues your children are to be taught in school; which companies — possibly of campaign donors — should be rewarded with subsidies and handouts, and which, such as donors to other political parties, should be targeted for audits and confiscations.

  As the cost of energy — gasoline, heating, air-conditioning — continues to rise, in addition to financing America’s adversaries that produce oil and gas such as Iran, Russia and Venezuela, all purchases for Americans, in an increasing downward spiral, become increasingly unaffordable. All goods that are manufactured or transported continue to cost more, forcing Americans to pay even higher prices for virtually everything. Already squeezed, many Americans will be forced to start buying less. Restaurants, even fast-food places, for instance, will become luxury items and attract fewer customers; many small businesses will be forced to close and their employees will be laid off, creating still less purchasing power. Even if the government hands out a few hundred dollars, that is hardly enough to keep up with an 8.5% inflation rate. If the Biden administration believes that the top earners in the US are not paying their fair share of taxes, then Congress should change the tax laws. Between incentivizing the golden goose and killing it are many shades of gray.

  If all that were not punishing enough for the average American, the Internal Revenue Service will now get $80 billion to hire 87,000 new IRS agents to conduct more audits and tax-collection. The Biden administration’s promise not to increase the taxes of households making less than $400,000 a year is about as solid as the Obama administration’s promise that “You can keep your doctor [and] healthcare”. The White House has been claiming that the government is going after only “the ultra-wealthy and corporations.” Really?

  First, as the adage goes, “Corporations don’t pay corporate taxes, people do.” Corporations simply pass on the increased expense by raising the price of their products or cutting jobs. The result, of course, is that even more people will be thrown out of work and unable to buy these now “luxury” items.

  Second, of course, whoever imagined that doubling the size of the IRS is just what the American people have been pining for — spending $80 billion of the American taxpayers’ hard-earned money to target not Russia, China or Iran — but Americans? Or political opponents? On the charm scale, it is right up there with the government labeling parents “domestic terrorists.”

  Moreover, these 87,000 new IRS agents will likely have zero interest in taking on either well-lawyered corporations or “ultra-wealthy” individuals. Incidentally, at what dollar amount does a wealthy person become “ultra”? Any self-respecting IRS agent would presumably prefer to come away from an IRS chat with something to show for it. The easiest target, of course, would be small business owners and middle-class individuals, for whom hiring a lawyer or accountant to refute a claim would cost more than just paying the IRS to go away. Just think of the IRS auditing, say, a lawyered-up Amazon corporation, which, until 2020, paid no taxes: “So, Walter, how’d it go today?” “Uh, zip.” What sort of return on investment for hiring 87,000 new IRS agents is that?

  The best news of all, however, is that they are armed! The IRS recently took down a recruiting ad — at the same time as many Americans are advocating for gun control — saying that agents must be “willing to carry a firearm” and “use deadly force, if necessary.” Now, that is what you might call persuasive. It also uncomfortably resembles the start of an armed federal militia to federalize the police, replace those precincts that were defunded, and begin targeting Americans — call it the Papa Doc or Venezuela model — definitely not what the founding fathers had in mind. That is where they came in, and the reason for the Second Amendment.

  The government, the Wall Street Journal determined, was embarking on a plan, to “raise a total of $739 billion in revenue, and spend a total of $433 billion…. to reduce the deficit by about $102 billion over a decade” – in government terms, a rounding error, with your tax dollars. But not a dollar for more Homeland Security agents to address the nearly 5 million illegal aliens — including 900,000 “gotaways” — rampant human trafficking, escalating child sex slavery, and massive drug smuggling that resulted, last year alone, in more than 107,000 deaths.

  Just as ruinous for Americans but a windfall again for Russia, are the new taxes the IRA slaps on oil and natural gas — precisely when much of the world, and Europe in particular, are counting on the US to help them out this winter after Russian President Vladimir Putin turned off the taps.

  If the Inflation Reduction Act has nothing to do with bringing down inflation, what it does have something to do with is purportedly funding climate change and green energy. “The package,” again according to the Wall Street Journal, “will spend roughly $369 billion on climate and energy programs, including tax credits for buying electric and hydrogen vehicles and making energy-efficient home improvements,” most of which are made in — China. Reality, as author and climate change expert Bjørn Lomborg keeps insisting, is that when alternatives to fossil fuels become “much less expensive and more effective,” everyone will choose them without being forced:

  “By forcing up the price of fossil fuels, policy-makers have put the cart before the horse. Instead, we need to make green energy much cheaper and more effective.

  “Humanity has relied on innovation to fix other big challenges. We didn’t solve air pollution by forcing everyone to stop driving, but by inventing the catalytic converter that drastically lowers pollution. We didn’t slash hunger by telling everyone to eat less, but through the Green Revolution that enabled farmers to produce much more food.”

  How comforting, however, to see that families having trouble buying gasoline at $4.50 a gallon (down from $5!) will now be able to rush out and buy a $60,000 electric vehicle! Not surprisingly, the minute tax credits to buy electric vehicles was announced, some car companies, while insisting the two events were not connected — perish the thought! – raised their prices by $6,000-$8,500, “roughly matching the $7,500 tax credit introduced under the inflation bill.”

  If there are cuts in drug prices, ordinarily that would be wonderful – if they did not also mean government interference in the private business of pharmaceuticals and the resultant impediment to research and development in tackling diseases, among others, such as cancer, Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s.

  As for Nancy Pelosi’s climate change part: as long as China “is building more than half of the world’s new coal power plants,” and all of us on the planet are breathing the same air, we are essentially depriving Americans of low-cost energy independence while enriching, again, overt adversaries such as Russia and Iran that export oil for as high a price as they can. Other countries are likely to be less passionate about having clean energy and more passionate about the bottom line. Russia, for instance, has been trying for years to limit America’s oil production to prod the US to transfer its dependence on oil to, you guessed it again!, Russia. If the US had the widespread, inexpensive oil production it enjoyed two years ago, Putin would never have had the resources even to think of invading Ukraine. The US is, quixotically, funding both sides of this war.

  Last week, the US Congress approved a $10,000-$20,000 Student Loan Relief plan – with the actual cost to taxpayers estimated at $1 trillion — with a T — over ten years. The cost of that will be unfairly dumped on the shoulders of the 62% majority of Americans — often lower-income, blue-collar Uber-drivers, welders, small shopkeepers — who never went to college. It is a grotesque reverse transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich. As Florida Governor Ron DeSantis put it:

  “It’s unfair to force a truck driver to pay a loan for someone who got a PhD in gender studies. Taxpayers shouldn’t be footing the bill for student loan relief and Biden’s order isn’t constitutional. If anything, universities handing out worthless degrees should be on the hook.”

  “Constitutional” in his statement means that the president does not have the power to allocate money; that is the Congress’s job.

  Moreover, no one will ever repay a student-loan again – why should they? The giveaway incentivizes people just to hang around and wait for loans to be forgiven. Anyone who ever struggled or held down two jobs to repay a student loan must now feel like a chump. Worse, universities — who are not being called on to use part of their gargantuan endowments to help cover this lavishness — will simply be encouraged to raise their fees even further.

  The biggest surprise of all in the IRA may have been, unbelievably, a new “Green Bank”, filled with $27 billion of your money for the Environmental Protection Agency — which, of course, knows so much about banking. It is supposed to be a “fund for clean energy projects,” but, as the government, cagily warns, “false claims risks exist.” What could possibly go wrong?

  The Inflation Reduction Act and Student Loan Relief Act and all these giveaways by the government, are yet more examples of government largess with the money of its citizens. Once again, politicians are taking taxpayer money and distributing it to favored causes and businesses, and then limiting the choices we can make as to how we want to live. It is bad policy in a country where freedom is supposed to reign.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 09/07/2022 – 20:05

• Florida 'Mother Theresa' Was Actually Running $196 Million Ponzi Scheme According To SEC
  Florida ‘Mother Theresa’ Was Actually Running $196 Million Ponzi Scheme According To SEC

  A Florida woman whose website claimed she was “often referred to as ‘Mother Teresa’ in her community” was actually running a multi-million dollar Ponzi scheme which promised investors 120% – 180% annual returns, federal prosecutors allege.

  Broward County resident Johanna Garcia, connected investors with companies which needed short-term financing – promising the investors huge returns. Between June 2020 and August 2021, her company, MJ Capital Funding LLC took in more than $196 million from over 15,400 investors. She created a tool known as a “merchant cash advance” or MCA to provide loans to small businesses via a now-defunct website.

  

  Garcia told prospective investors that they were “purchasing future receivables,” which guaranteed them a share of the recipient businesses’ income for months. According to the SEC, however, she was using new investors’ funds to satisfy payments to existing investors – fueling a Ponzi scheme, NPR reports. Company insiders, meanwhile, are accused of spending millions of dollars on travel, luxury goods, clothing and other items.

  “From June 1, 2020 through August 31, 2021, the MJ Companies misused investor funds by making payments totaling at least $61.8 million to sales agents for promoting investments in the MJ Companies,” reads a new complaint against unlicensed broker, Pavel Ruiz.

  The SEC also alleges that MJ Capital used unlicensed brokers and sales agents to sell unregistered securities. Supporting the scheme, the authorities allege, was Pavel Ruiz, 29, an MJ Capital board member whose sales team of some 70 agents allegedly reeled in at least $46 million from more than 5,100 investors.

  Ruiz reaped large rewards from his work, allegedly taking in $292,000 in commissions. But he also diverted some $7.7 million directly into his personal accounts or ones he controlled, according to the SEC. It says he used some of the money to “purchase crypto assets and a luxury vehicle.” -NPR

  After initially filing a complaint against Garcia last year, a federal judge has since frozen her companies’ assets and ordered them into receivership.

  Last week, the SEC filed the second complaint – this one against Ruiz, which came on the same day as the US Attorney’s Office in the Southern District of Florida accused the unlicensed broker of conspiracy to commit wire fraud – which could land him in prison for 20 years.

  Garcia’s name does not appear in the criminal filing against Ruiz; she is referred to only as “Co-conspirator 1,” identified as the company’s leader. When NPR asked the U.S. Attorney’s Office if Garcia might also face criminal charges, a representative said on Monday, “Pursuant to DOJ policy, we can neither confirm nor deny the existence of an investigation.”

  Last week, the SEC and Garcia agreed to a partial settlement that would essentially put the agency’s complaint against her on the back burner. They jointly asked Judge Raag Singhal to approve the deal, citing potential complications from what Garcia has called a “parallel federal criminal investigation.”

  The proposed wording of the order accepting the partial settlement states, “the SEC can address its request for monetary relief once criminal sentencing is concluded (in the event that the Defendant does not prevail at trial).” -NPR

  The investigation began in 2021, when someone created a website with a URL similar to MJ Capital’s, but which accused them of running a Ponzi scheme. Garcia sued the site’s creator in federal court, demanding a jury trial on grounds of defamation. Two months later the FBI became involved – with an undercover agent visiting MJ Capital’s office posing as a prospective investor. The agent gave them $10,000, which they were told would generate a guaranteed 10% annual return.

  A change.org petition in support “to come together in support of Johanna in this time of need” has reached more than 3,200 signatures as of this writing.

  

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 09/07/2022 – 19:45

• Buchanan: How Liberal Elites Detest Middle America
  Buchanan: How Liberal Elites Detest Middle America

  Authored by Pat Buchanan,

  Speaking at a San Francisco fundraiser in 2008, Barack Obama sought to explain the reluctance of working-class Pennsylvanians to rally to his cause.

  “You go into these small towns in Pennsylvania and … the jobs have been gone now for 25 years, and nothing’s replaced them.”

  “And it’s not surprising, then, they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment … as a way to explain their frustrations.”

  Translation: The world has left Middle America behind, and Middle America has reacted by clinging to its bibles, bigotries and guns.

  

  Eight years later, Hillary Clinton was the Democratic nominee and, at a fundraiser in New York, addressed the same issue:

  “You know, to just be grossly generalistic, you could put half of Trump’s supporters into what I call the basket of deplorables. Right? … The racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamaphobic — you name it.”

  “Now, some of those folks — they are irredeemable, but thankfully they are not America.”

  Last week, President Joe Biden addressed the same issue. But it was not with an off-the-cuff remark that our president revealed his thoughts.

  At Independence Hall in Philadelphia, whence came the Declaration of Independence and Constitution, and flanked by two U.S. Marines, Biden described the Middle Americans of 2022. Only now they’re known as “MAGA Republicans,” and no more anti-American assemblage is to be imagined.

  In a speech he labored on for days, the president described that half of the Republican Party he sees as wedded to “semi-fascism.”

  “The Republican Party today is dominated, driven and intimidated by Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans. And that is a threat to this country.”

  “MAGA Republicans represent an extremism that threatens the very foundations of our Republic.”

  “MAGA forces … promote authoritarian leaders, and they fan the flames of political violence that are a threat to our personal rights, to the pursuit of justice, to the rule of law, to the very soul of this country.”

  “MAGA forces are determined to take this country backwards — backwards to an America where there is no right to choose, no right to privacy, no right to contraception, no right to marry who you love.”

  Biden is here hypocritically denouncing as “backward” moral stands championed by his own Catholic faith — opposition to abortion and same-sex marriage — that he himself held not so long ago.

  Biden went on:

  “MAGA Republicans do not respect the Constitution. They do not believe in the rule of law. They do not recognize the will of the people. They refuse to accept the results of a free election.”

  “MAGA Republicans … embrace anger. They thrive on chaos. They live, not in the light of truth but in the shadow of lies.”

  “MAGA Republicans look at America and see carnage and darkness and despair. They spread fear and lies. Lies told for profit and power.”

  “MAGA Republicans … are destroying American democracy.”

  On Labor Day, Biden returned to the theme:

  “Extreme MAGA Republicans … embrace political violence … (and) defend the mob that stormed the Capitol. And people died.”

  This is the place at which Biden has arrived, 19 months into a presidency that began with his commitment to bring America together:

  “Today, on this January day, my whole soul is in this: Bringing America together. Uniting our people. And uniting our nation. I ask every American to join me in this cause.”

  After 19 months in office, Biden has given up on that cause, for a new cause. The name of the game now is an old one: divide et impera, divide and conquer. Biden hopes to split “mainstream Republicans” off from “MAGA Republicans” and demonize the latter as intolerable allies or partners in our democracy.

  Indeed, the catalogue of sins and crimes Biden attributes to MAGA Republicans — extremism, violence, mendacity, authoritarianism — not only raises a question as to the state of the soul of the nation; it raises a question of its continuance as a democratic republic.

  At his first rally following the Biden diatribe, Trump called the president “an enemy of the state” and Biden’s speech, “the most vicious, hateful and divisive … ever delivered by an American president.”

  In an earlier time, this exchange between the two presidents might have been settled with pistols at dawn.

  A house divided against itself cannot stand, said Abraham Lincoln, invoking a biblical truth. While the attributes and conduct Biden attributes to MAGA Republicans may not be such as to make a civil war inevitable, they surely do raise the question of whether our republic ought to endure or to be dissolved.

  Indeed, Biden should be asked what differentiates MAGA Republicans who back Trump, given the crimes Biden listed, from the Black Shirts who accompanied Benito Mussolini on the March on Rome?

  Does Biden believe MAGA Republicans are as sincere in their beliefs and the methods they espouse to advance those beliefs, as Biden himself, Nancy Pelosi and Kamala Harris are in theirs?

  And if so, what do we have left in common?

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 09/07/2022 – 19:25

• Pentagon Halts F-35 Stealth Jet Deliveries Over Use Of Chinese Alloy
  Pentagon Halts F-35 Stealth Jet Deliveries Over Use Of Chinese Alloy

  The Pentagon suspended the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II deliveries over Chinese rare-earth metals used in magnets for pumps on the stealth fighter jet. 

  Defense Department spokesman Russell Goemaere told Bloomberg in an email that the F-35 program office “temporarily paused the acceptance of new F-35 aircraft to ensure the F-35 program’s compliance” with DoD rules sourcing “specialty metals.” 

  

  Goemaere said the Chinese alloy won’t disrupt operations with F-35s in deployment with US military and global partners because “the magnet does not transmit information or harm the integrity of the aircraft and there are no performance, quality, safety or security risks associated with this issue.”

  The defense official said the F-35 program office “found an alternative source for the alloy that will be used in future turbomachines.” 

  “We are working with our partners and DoD to ensure contractual compliance within the supply chain … and are working with the DoD to resolve the issue as quickly as possible to resume deliveries,” Lockheed told Bloomberg. 

  Chinese alloy found in F-35s is no surprise, considering the country controls the global rare-earth metals market. 

  A Congressional Research Service report found that F-35s use about 920 pounds of rare earths per plane, mainly for electronic warfare sensors, electrical power systems, and magnets.  

  

  The US relies heavily on Asian countries for 80% of its rare-earths needs. There have been moves by the Biden administration to increase domestic supply chains as a priority to mitigate if China were to impose an export ban on US defense companies. 

  Rare earths are also central in manufacturing night vision goggles, precision-guided missiles, and drones. On the civilian side, metals are critical for electric vehicles and smartphones. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 09/07/2022 – 19:05

• IRS Official in Charge Of 87,000 New Agents Played Key Role In Obama-Era Targeting Scandal
  IRS Official in Charge Of 87,000 New Agents Played Key Role In Obama-Era Targeting Scandal

  Authored by Fred Lucas via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  House Republicans say they will keep a “watchful eye” on the Internal Revenue Service official tapped to run the centralized office housing 87,000 incoming new agents because she has ties to the IRS’ targeting of tea party groups during the Obama administration.

  

  The Daily Signal first reported that IRS Commissioner Charles Rettig had appointed Nikole Flax, commissioner in charge of the IRS’ Large Business & International Division, to lead the establishment of the agency’s centralized office.

  In 2014, Flax was among seven IRS employees who said their computers had crashed, making it impossible for them to provide information sought by the House Ways and Means Committee in investigating the agency’s targeting of tea party and other conservative groups.

  Flax made 31 visits to the Obama White House from July 2010 through May 2013.

  “Every American should be concerned that a key player in the IRS’ targeting of conservative groups and ensuing cover-up has been tapped to oversee the implementation of Democrats’ tax and spending bill,” Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.), ranking member of the House Oversight and Reform Committee, told The Daily Signal.

  

   Lois Lerner Connection

  In an email sent May 8, 2013, Lois Lerner, head of the IRS’ tax-exempt organizations unit when the scandal erupted, told Flax that she received a call about working with the Justice Department to pursue certain political organizations that “lied” on IRS forms.

  Lerner was the central figure of the Obama administration’s IRS targeting scandal. She said her computer also crashed.

  Lerner invoked her Fifth Amendment right not to incriminate herself in testimony before the House Oversight and Reform Committee. After being placed on paid administrative leave, she retired later in 2013.

  The IRS didn’t respond directly to the concerns raised by Flax’s background. Instead, the agency referred The Daily Signal to Rettig’s memo to staff announcing that Flax would run a new “centralized office” to implement elements of the tax and spending legislation that Democrats dubbed the Inflation Reduction Act. The package, signed into law by President Joe Biden, provides $80 billion for the IRS to add almost 87,000 new agents.

  Despite the computer crash during the congressional investigation of IRS targeting, Rettig said that Flax would work with Congress and others in her new role leading the effort.

  “Nikole has an extensive background in a variety of roles across the IRS since 2008,” Rettig’s memo says, adding: “Her wide range of experience will serve her well as she works with internal and external stakeholders, including Treasury, Congress, IRS employees and taxpayers.”

  Rettig’s memo to IRS staffers about the new office also quotes Flax.

  “This is a historic time for the IRS, and we are working to move quickly to begin work on the Inflation Reduction Act signed into law earlier this week,” Flax is quoted as saying. “This is an exciting opportunity, and we will be moving quickly with our work.”

  Flax became director of the IRS Large Business & International Division in 2021. Previously, she had been deputy commissioner for the division since 2017.

  Flax also is a former chief of staff to IRS Commissioner Steve Miller and was assistant deputy IRS commissioner for services and enforcement.

  Republicans on the House Oversight and Reform Committee will monitor the IRS’ actions, Comer said.

  “This entrenched bureaucrat will oversee the establishment of a new, centralized IRS office and the hiring of up to 87,000 IRS agents, which raises concerns that the Swamp could weaponize new resources to target and harass Americans,” Comer said in a statement provided to The Daily Signal.

  “Oversight Committee Republicans will keep a watchful eye on this office. If there is a whiff of government abuse, we will work to hold bad actors accountable,” he said.

  ‘Frequent Visitor to White House’

  In 2014, then-House Ways and Means Chairman Dave Camp (R-Mich.) accused the IRS of “lying” by attempting to hide two years of emails from Lerner and other officials.

  “Despite their attempt to bury the missing Lerner emails on page 15 of a 27-page letter that arrived late Friday, we now know documents from other central figures, like Nikole Flax, are missing,” Camp said in a joint statement with Rep. Charles Boustany (R-La.), then-chairman of the Ways and Means oversight subcommittee.

  The two Republican lawmakers added:

  “The fact that Ms. Flax was a frequent visitor to the White House and the Eisenhower Executive Office Building only raises more questions. Who was she visiting at the White House and what were they talking about? Was she updating the White House on the targeting or was she getting orders?

  “These are answers we don’t yet have, because—surprise, surprise—a few computers crashed. Plot lines in Hollywood are more believable than what we are getting from this White House and the IRS.”

  When testifying before the House Ways and Means Committee in 2014, IRS Commissioner John Koskinen defended Flax, saying she had two IRS computers and that her IRS emails should be intact.

  “Those press releases with regard to Nicole Flax were inaccurate and misleading and it demonstrates why we’ll provide this committee a full report … when it is completed,” Koskinen told the committee. “We are not going to dribble out the information and have it played out in the press.”

  A string of audits and congressional investigations found that the IRS improperly targeted tea party and other conservative groups during the 2010 and 2012 election cycles by holding up their applications for tax-exempt status.

  Chronology of IRS Scandal

  In May 2013, the Treasury Department’s inspector general for tax administration released a report asserting that in the 2010 and 2012 election cycles, the IRS “used inappropriate criteria that identified tea party and other organizations applying for tax-exempt status based upon their policy positions.”

  That finding prompted investigations by the House Ways and Means Committee and the House Oversight and Reform Committee, which concluded in 2014 that top IRS officials knew of the targeting of conservative groups and decided against informing Congress.

  In 2015, the Senate Finance Committee released its findings that Lerner’s personal and political views played a role. The report said:

  “Lerner orchestrated a process that subjected these applicants to multiple levels of review by numerous components within the IRS, thereby ensuring that they would suffer long delays and be required to answer burdensome and unnecessary questions.”

  Another report, from the Government Accountability Office in 2016, stated that the IRS still might be targeting some nonprofits unfairly “based on an organization’s religious, educational, political, or other views.”

  Nevertheless, Justice Department prosecutor Barbara Bosserman—who had donated a total of $6,750 to Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns and the Democratic National Committee from 2004 to 2012—declined to press charges after investigating the matter.

  The IRS ultimately settled lawsuits with several tea party and other conservative groups in 2017 and 2018.

  In 2016, Congress approved a provision to prevent the IRS from doing anything to target organizations or groups applying for tax-exempt status.

  Reprinted by permission from The Daily Signal, a publication of The Heritage Foundation.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 09/07/2022 – 18:45

• Retail Traders Throw In The Towel
  Retail Traders Throw In The Towel

  Two months ago, when stocks were still sliding ahead of the mid-summer bear market meltup, we looked at investor sentiment and found that retail (as well as institutional) investors were in the process of capitulating.

  

  This capitulatory sentiment quickly reversed however, once stocks first rose above 4,000, then the 500% retracement and eventually were on the verge of breaking above the 200DMA… but failed and have since stumbled again dragging everyone’s mood along with them.

  So fast forwarding two months, and taking another look at sentiment again, it would be safe to assume that with stocks sliding, that the mood has once again turned dire. And sure enough, as Vanda Research observes in its latest weekly note (available to pro subscribers), speculative retail traders are throwing in the towel.

  As Goldman’s Michael Nocerino wrote in his market wrap, saying that the bank is “seeing the absence of the retail investors (just look at bitcoin/meme stocks) as it’s back to school/work”, Vanda Research confirms that retail investors’ inflows into US securities continue to drop as the sell-off deepens, and suspects that “the lack of buying is originated from the increasing risk aversion of retail traders – who are waiting for a more favorable environment before trying to time the market or pick new stocks.” Translation: it makes no sense to buy the dip if tomorrow a bigger dip will emerge. 

  The lack of retail engagement can be observed by the low turnover (in line with 2019 levels). At the same time, individuals with a long term investment horizon are still net bullish – and indeed, net purchases remain relatively strong, close to the 2020-2022 average.

  

  That said, Vanda expects the retail inflows to slow further if equities continue to fall – especially if the sell-off is driven by the  underperformance of mega-caps.

  A better indicator of retail capitulation comes from Vanda’s tracker of total retail investors’ traded value in US securities, which has dropped to pre-Covid levels, or around $11BN per day…

  

  … and while net inflows have also been dropping, they remain in line with the post-Covid average. Vanda believes that this discrepancy is due to a change in investors’ behavior, as most of the active retail speculative investors gave up on day trading and now prefer to wait for a change in the macro-economic conditions. On the other side, a large portion of retail traders buy the dip with ETFs or favorite stocks in auto-pilot as they have a long term investment horizon.

  Of course, when one cuts to the chase, sentiment is always just a function of price, which is a problem since the average retail investor’s portfolio drawdown is again approaching -30%. As a result, risk-aversion is likely to only pick-up as the YTD PnL dramatically declines.

  

  In this context, Vanda thinks that the main risk on the downside is an underperformance of mega-caps – as retail investors are heavily exposed to stocks like: AAPL, TSLA, AMZN and NVDA; the retail tracking company expects portfolios to experience large losses if these companies underperform over the next few weeks which could eventually lead to a full-scale capitulation.

  Another pattern that reinforces this bearish view is the recent drop in levered long ETFs net inflows. After an initial rebound in TQQQ purchases during the first stage of the sell-off, which started with the Jackson Hole symposium, Vanda noticed a sharp decline in net inflows. Probably, retail traders do not dare to bet on a quick rebound  – or they even added bearish positions by buying SQQQ (most bought security yesterday).

  

  A more granular look at retail flows finds that investors’ flows into semis stocks show resilience as the US unveils the details of its Chips plan. One possible catalyst is the signing of the $52BN Chips for America plan into law on 9th August. The package is expected to funnel more than $70bn into the US semiconductor industry and set aside approximately $200bn for scientific and technological research. However, shares of semiconductor stocks (SOXX) have shed more than 16% since mid-August, lagging broader US equity indices as Fed tightening and global slowdown fears dominated headlines. Nevertheless, as the charts below show, the recent slump hasn’t deterred retail investors who have continued to step up buying in both cash equity and options markets ($730MM and $310MM in the last five trading days, respectively).

  

  Interestingly, despite its recent woes, NVDA remains a retail favorite within the semiconductor universe, with over $600MM net retail flows over the past two weeks. The stock has now slid 29% since the disappointing earnings pre-announcement on August 8th. The move was likely also driven by worries about the knock-on impacts of the CHIPS bills on its sales to China. According to Bloomberg data, the stock derives around 57% of its revenue from China and Taiwan, but that doesn’t seem to worry retail investors much as they continue offering exit liquidity to the pros.

  

  One place where the retail mania has certainly burst is Bed Bath stock – here, retail investors appear to have abandoned this summer phenomenon stock entirely as the company announced plans to lay off 20% of staff and close 150 stores, and following the sudden death of its CFO. That said, sporadic bursts in the trading of meme stocks will remain a feature of equity markets in the future. However, repeated attempts have displayed a decreasing impact on overall markets over time as investors of all stripes have learned how to navigate these highly speculative events. In particular, meme stock trading phases are shorter and unsustainable during bear markets.

  

  So could a rush for the safe havens foreshadow better times ahead? Vanda thinks so, noting that the recent rout in financial markets has pushed retail investors towards bonds and gold, driving a change in their short-term purchasing pattern. As frequently noted, retail investors’ bias is predominantly contrarian when it comes to risky assets. Conversely, this investor cohort tends to momentum-trade safe havens such as bonds and gold. So, the jump in purchases for these havens – off the back of price declines – indicates an increasingly bearish shift in sentiment. When considering retail’s ‘late-to-the-party’ track record in timing bottoms, this could actually foreshadow an improving outlook for equities in the days ahead.

  

  More in the full note available to pro subscribers.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 09/07/2022 – 18:26

• Inflation Now Causing Hardship For Majority In US: Gallup
  Inflation Now Causing Hardship For Majority In US: Gallup

  By Jeffrey Jones of Gallup

  A majority of Americans, 56%, now say price increases are causing financial hardship for their household, up from 49% in January and 45% in November.

  

  The latest reading includes 12% who describe the hardship as severe and 44% as moderate.

  

  The results are based on an Aug. 1-22 web survey that interviewed over 1,500 members of Gallup’s probability-based panel.

  Although more Americans now than last fall say they are experiencing hardship, the percentage who are suffering severe hardship has held relatively steady at around 10%. Lower-income Americans are more likely than others to be experiencing severe hardship — 26% of those whose annual household income is less than $48,000 say prices are causing severe hardship for their families. That compares with 12% of middle-income Americans and 4% of upper-income Americans.

  Lower-income Americans are about as likely now as last fall to say they are experiencing either severe or moderate hardship — 74%, compared with 70% in November.

  Middle-income (63%) and upper-income (40%) Americans remain significantly less likely than lower-income Americans to say they are experiencing hardship. However, sharply more middle- and upper-income Americans are struggling now than were last November. The increase has been greater among middle-income Americans — up 17 percentage points — than among upper-income Americans — up 12 points.

  

  Reports of financial hardship also differ by partisanship. Republicans (67%) are far more likely than Democrats (44%) to say rising prices are hurting their families. Independents fall between the party groups, at 56%.

  These party differences are consistent with Republicans’ being more likely to mention inflation as the most important problem and to rate the economy more negatively than Democrats and independents do, likely because of the presence of a Democratic president in the White House.

  Spending, Travel, Driving Cutbacks Most Common Response to Inflation

  A new question in the survey asked those experiencing hardship to list some of the specific things they are doing to respond to the effects of inflation.

  The most common action, mentioned by 24% of those experiencing hardship, is to reduce spending, including buying less in general or buying only essential items. Another 17% say they are traveling less or canceling vacations, while the same percentage indicate they are driving less or trying to use less gas.

  Other common strategies for dealing with higher prices are buying cheaper goods or generic brands of products (12%), eating out less (10%), buying fewer groceries or growing their own food (10%), staying home (8%), and cutting down on entertainment expenses (8%).

  Seven percent say they have tried to increase their income by working more hours, finding a second job or looking for a new job. Three percent say they are delaying medical procedures or appointments, and another 3% are delaying home improvement or maintenance projects.

  Two percent each say they are downsizing or selling things they own, using savings, or using credit cards or loans. One percent are using food banks or applying for assistance.

  

  Adults of different income levels are about equally likely to report taking the most commonly mentioned actions. However, upper-income people are more likely than lower-income people to say they have cut back on travel and eating out, perhaps because they are more likely to do those activities under normal circumstances.

  Bottom Line

  With high inflation persisting for over a year, a majority of Americans now say they are experiencing financial hardship from higher prices. Lower-income Americans were mainly affected early on, but most middle-income Americans and a substantial minority of upper-income Americans are now feeling the strain of higher prices.

  To address the hardship inflation is causing them, Americans are largely making sacrifices by buying less, cutting back on discretionary spending and cutting back on recreational activities. Some have resorted to more significant measures such as finding another job, incurring debt, postponing medical care or applying for assistance.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 09/07/2022 – 18:05

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• Visualizing The World's Flight-Paths And Airports
  Visualizing The World’s Flight-Paths And Airports

  There are up to 8,755 commercial flights in the air at any given time of day. These flights transport thousands of people (and millions of dollars worth of goods) around the world.

  But where are these people and goods headed? This map from Adam Symington uses historical data from OpenFlights to visualize the world’s flight paths.

  As Visual Capitalist’s Carmen Ang details below, the graphic shows a comprehensive data set encompassing 67,663 different routes that connect 10,000 different airports across the globe.

  

  A Note On the Data

  The map uses an OpenFlights database provided by the third-party source that hasn’t been updated since June 2014.

  Because of this, the data used for the graphic is of historical value only. However, this detailed map sparked our curiosity and got us wondering—what are some of the busiest aviation hubs around the world right now?

  We did some digging, and here’s what we found.

  Busiest Airports by Passengers

  There are several ways to gauge an airport’s popularity. One way is to measure total passenger traffic throughout the year.

  According to Airports Council International (ACI), eight of the top 10 busiest airports for passenger traffic in 2021 were in America. Here’s a look at the top 10 list, as of April 11, 2022:

  

   

  In 2021, the airport with the most passenger traffic was Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport. It accommodated more than 75 million passengers last year—a 76.4% increase compared to 2020 figures.

   

  Hartsfield-Jackson is well-known for being one of the busiest airports in the world. One reason for this is its convenient location—according to the airport’s official website, Atlanta is within a two-hour flight from 80% of the U.S. population.

  Dallas/Forth Worth (DFW) came in second place, seeing 62.5 million passengers throughout 2021. DFW was one of the only airports to boost its service offerings throughout the pandemic, and is also the main hub for American Airlines, the world’s largest airline by fleet size.

  Busiest Airports by Cargo

  While the U.S. dominates the ranking when it comes to passenger traffic, the list is much more diverse when looking at air cargo volumes. Here’s a look at the ranking, based on loaded and unloaded freight and mail (including transit freight):

  

   

  Hong Kong (HKG) takes the top spot since the airport processed more than 5.0 million metric tonnes of freight and mail throughout 2021.

   

  Hong Kong has been known as one of the busiest air cargo hubs for over a decade and is able to maintain this reputation because of its strategic location, impressive infrastructure, efficient customs, and business-friendly trade regulations.

  The COVID-19 Impact on Aviation

  The global pandemic hit the aviation industry hard. At its lowest point, international travel was down 98% from normal levels.

  While the aviation industry is starting to recover from its COVID-induced slump, things still haven’t fully bounced back yet, especially in places like Shanghai, where lockdowns are still being mandated.

  But experts remain hopeful for the future. According to ACI World’s General Director Luis Felipe de Oliveira, last year’s recovery was just the beginning.

  “With many countries taking steps towards the return of a certain normality, lifting almost all the health measures and travel restrictions as supported by science, we welcome the continuation of air travel demand’s recovery in 2022.”

  -LUIS FELIPE DE OLIVEIRA, ACI WORLD’S DIRECTOR GENERAL

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 09/06/2022 – 23:20

• US, China Reportedly Want Same Moon-Landing Sites: "Could Be The First Potential Point Of Conflict Over Resources Beyond Earth"
  US, China Reportedly Want Same Moon-Landing Sites: “Could Be The First Potential Point Of Conflict Over Resources Beyond Earth”

  Authored by Katie Hutton via TheMindUnleashed.com,

  The United States and China are preparing for an embarrassing showdown in the event that both countries decide to land their respective lunar rockets on identical locations near the Moon’s south pole, which, according to the present plans, may very well transpire.

  

  According to SpaceNews, both NASA and China’s space agency have discovered various landing locations that are comparable to one another for their respective lunar missions. These landing sites include the Shackleton, Haworth, and Nobile craters, which are situated close to the lunar south pole.

  According to SpaceNews, both organizations may have selected these locations because of their elevated heights, favorable lighting conditions, and closeness to shadowy craters that have the potential to store lunar water ice. These factors may have contributed to their decision.

  Futurism notes that it is currently unknown how the United States and China intend to deal with the possibility of a landing site overlap during their respective moon missions, which are scheduled to take off in the years 2025 and 2024, respectively.

  The fact that more and more nations are considering sending astronauts to the Moon has created a brand-new problem for scientists to solve.

  According to SpaceNews, the United States is in a difficult circumstance when it comes to space agreements with China as a result of a budget resolution insert defined as the “Wolf Amendment.”

  The “Wolf Amendment” is a stipulation that was introduced in 2011 by then-representative Frank Wolf (R-VA) and severely restricts NASA’s ability to work with China in any capacity. The unwillingness of countries to play nice when it comes to space is undoubtedly going to cause many issues going forward in the Space realm. And some fear that this will usher in further Space militarization.

  Despite the efforts of past presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump to participate in space negotiations with China, the conversations ultimately did not get very far. According to the findings of the report, the administration of President Joe Biden does not now have any apparent intentions to re-engage in the discussions.

  Although the two nations’ options for landing locations on the moon aren’t exactly shocking, they might be a historic first nevertheless. And we should expect to see more instances like this in the future as tensions rise and humans continually venture into space.

  “It is not hard to see why they both want the same spots,” space and law policy professor Christopher Newman told SpaceNews. “It is prime lunar real estate for in-situ resource utilization.”

  “This could be the first potential point of conflict over resources beyond Earth,” he added.

  Newman stated that in addition, on the basis of the fact that both sides had signed the Outer Space Treaty, they should, in principle, “accept the use of celestial bodies for peaceful purposes.”

  “It will be interesting to see what happens,” Newman tells SpaceNews, adding that “a lot will depend on who gets there first.”

  Folks, it looks like we could have a good old fashioned show down.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 09/06/2022 – 23:00

• Pentagon Makes "Unusual" Announcement Ahead Of ICBM Launch
  Pentagon Makes “Unusual” Announcement Ahead Of ICBM Launch

  “There will be an operational test launch of an Air Force Global Strike Command unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile early tomorrow morning, Sept. 7, from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California,” Pentagon spokesman Brigadier-General Pat Ryder told reporters on Tuesday. 

  Ryder said the ICBM test would be “routine,” adding Russia was notified per treaty obligations about Wednesday’s test. But as AP noted:

  “The announcement ahead of the launch was unusual; the Pentagon has not confirmed recent tests until after they take place.” 

  He said the objective of the test “is to demonstrate the readiness of US nuclear forces and provide confidence in the security and effectiveness of the nation’s nuclear deterrent.” 

  .@PentagonPresSec: There will be an operational test launch of an Air Force Global Strike Command unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile early tomorrow morning, September 7, from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. pic.twitter.com/DkYdPvwUa9

  — Department of Defense 🇺🇸 (@DeptofDefense) September 6, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The test comes weeks after a Minutemen III ICBM launch on Aug. 16 was postponed twice before to avoid any misunderstandings between Russia and China.

  Nuclear tensions between the US and Russia have only accelerated in the last six months because of the ongoing Russian-Ukraine war. NATO countries’ fierce hybrid fight against Russian forces by supplying Ukraine’s military with weapons puts the world on a dangerous path to expanded conflict. 

  Then Sino-US tensions reached levels not seen in decades last month when US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei angered Beijing, who then launched a war drill around the self-ruled island it claims as its own. 

  Western globalist elites are hellbent on destabilization to contain the emergence of a multipolar world. 

  Perhaps the Pentagon now feels a pre-launch ICBM press conference is needed to project military dominance (or what’s left of it) to countries that challenge its unipolar world as a way to preserve its hegemony. 

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 09/06/2022 – 22:40

• What Is America's Goal For The Ukraine War? Answer: We Don't Have One
  What Is America’s Goal For The Ukraine War? Answer: We Don’t Have One

  Authored by Daniel Davis via 19fortyfive.com,

  Does America Have a Goal or Strategy for Ukraine? 

  On Friday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced the G7 had agreed to impose a price cap regime on Russian oil. As with most other actions by the U.S. and Europe related to Russia’s unjust war against Ukraine, the announcement of the cap was big on rhetorical flourish, but thread-bare on any evidence of a coherent strategic objective.

  (19FortyFive Contributing Editor Daniel L. Davis, author of this article, analyzes the situation in Ukraine on Fox News above.)

  The intent of the cap is to set a global price just above Russia’s marginal cost so that Moscow won’t make a profit on the sale of oil but high enough that Russia won’t stop producing altogether. Current global demand can’t be met without the nearly nine million barrels of oil per day provided by Russia, and if Putin were to stop producing suddenly, the resulting supply shock could send the price of oil into the stratosphere.

  The purpose of the cap, Yellen claimed, would be to “deliver a major blow for Russian finances and will both hinder Russia’s ability to fight its unprovoked war in Ukraine and hasten the deterioration of the Russian economy.” It remains to be seen if the G7 can make good on its aspiration and actually develop and implement a worldwide price cap scheme. But along with other actions sponsored or endorsed by the United States government, it is far from certain what end state Washington hopes to obtain.

  On February 7, about three weeks before Putin ordered the Russian military to invade its smaller neighbor, President Biden threatened to “impose the most severe sanctions that have ever been imposed” should Russia invade. Four days later, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan explained that President Biden “believes that sanctions are intended to deter.  And in order for them to work — to deter, they have to be set up in a way where if Putin moves, then the costs are imposed.”

  Yet after the threats of sanctions failed to deter Putin, Biden adjusted the rationale when he claimed that in fact “no one expected the sanctions to prevent anything from happening.” Instead, he continued, the sanctions were designed to show Western “resolve,” which, over time, “will impose significant costs on him (Putin).” Even with this new claim on his justification for sanctions, there was no explanation for what these “significant costs” were designed to accomplish. The Administration’s lack of focus didn’t stop there, unfortunately.

  In late April, Secretaries of Defense and State, Lloyd Austin and Antony Blinken, traveled to Kyiv to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to explore ways the U.S. could help Ukraine’s military. Following their meeting, Austin said the United States wanted to see Ukraine remain a “sovereign country,” and that the U.S. wants “to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine.” It’s what Austin, Blinken, and Biden have not said, however, that illustrates a continuing problem with American foreign policy.

  

  HIMARS Attack. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

  To date, none of America’s top leaders have said how our support for Kyiv is expected to achieve the outcomes sought. No one has articulated what a “weakened” Russia looks like or how we’ll know when that standard has been reached – or even why weakening Russia is a vital interest to the U.S. that is worth taking huge risks. These are not just academic or hair-splitting questions. They are foundational. Here’s why:

  Since even before the war began, the United States has had no vision for the end state it wishes to produce. For example, if Biden’s objective prior to 24 February genuinely was to deter Russia from launching a war, it should have been clear beyond a reasonable doubt that a threat of sanctions alone would not have been sufficient to convince Putin not to invade.

  Washington would have had to be aggressively engaged diplomatically with both Kyiv and Moscow to use the full heft of U.S. power to find a route to prevent war. There is no evidence the U.S. put any serious diplomatic effort towards averting war. Without a clearly articulated objective, there was nothing to guide the various departments of the Administration on how to achieve the desired outcome. The result was predictable: policy failure.

  Virtually the only objective voiced by any member of Biden’s national security team since the war began has been Austin’s aforementioned desire to see Russia “weakened.” Yet if the White House doesn’t know what a weakened Russia looks like, how will it ever know if its actions are contributing towards a successful outcome beneficial to America? That’s where we are right now.

  We send multiple rounds of multi-billion-dollar support to Ukraine, including some modern and some antiquated gear, but it is not a coherent set of military kit tied to enabling a specific capacity in the Ukraine Armed Forces. The White House leads multiple tranches of sanctions against Russia, but there is no declared purpose as to what they are intended to produce.

  

  RGW-90 rocket launcher in Ukraine. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

  Since we don’t know what we’re trying to accomplish, no one can tell the American people how much the effort is going to cost, how long it’s going to last, or even what success would look like. If this sounds familiar, it should: it is basically the same aimless, incompetent foreign policy the United States has been pursuing for decades.

  • We fought a generational war in Afghanistan that never bothered to set an objective; no one in power even articulated what success would look like, and thus no victory of any sort was ever achieved;

  • We started a war in Iraq beginning in 2003 that quasi-ended in 2011, only to return again in 2014 – without any president bothering to set an attainable military objective or even articulating what the Force was there to accomplish so the American people could know when the operation could successfully end – and it continues without success or end to this day.

  • We have had the same malady in our actions in Syria, Libya, Somalia, Niger, and many other locations in Africa: the government has not identified any attainable military objectives whose accomplishment would benefit our country and signal the end of the mission – and thus none have benefitted the U.S. and most still drone unsuccessfully on.

  The cost to the United States for all these failures has been profound – and now we’re creating a new mission without a clear objective and no identifiable end state. The Russia-Ukraine war just passed the six-month mark. The danger isn’t as much that we might still be trying to divine the Administration’s objectives six years from now – though that sad outcome is entirely possible – but that this war could one day spill over Ukraine’s borders and get us sucked into a war we should never have fought and from which we could never benefit.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 09/06/2022 – 22:20

• The Periodic Table Of Endangered Elements
  The Periodic Table Of Endangered Elements

  The building blocks for everything on Earth are made from 90 different naturally occurring elements.

  As Visual Capitalist’s Carmen Ang and David Cole-Hailton shows in the graphic below, made by the European Chemical Society (EuChemS), of these 90 different elements, which ones are in abundance and which ones are in serious threat as of 2021.

  

  On the graphic, the area of each element relates to its number of atoms on a logarithmic scale. The color-coding shows whether there’s enough of each element, or whether the element is becoming scarce, based on current consumption levels.

  While these elements don’t technically run out and instead transform (except for helium, which rises and escapes from Earth’s atmosphere), some are being used up exceptionally fast, to the point where they may soon become extremely scarce.

  One element worth pointing out on the graphic is carbon, which is three different colors: green, red, and dark gray.

  • Green, because carbon is in abundance (to a fault) in the form of carbon dioxide

  • Red, because it will soon cause a number of cataphoric problems if consumption habits don’t change

  • Gray because carbon-based fuels often come from conflict countries

  For more elements-related content, check out our channel dedicated to raw materials and the megatrends that drive them, VC Elements.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 09/06/2022 – 22:00

• FBI Ignored 'Eyewitness Testimony' Of Joe Biden’s Involvement In Son’s China Deal: Senator
  FBI Ignored ‘Eyewitness Testimony’ Of Joe Biden’s Involvement In Son’s China Deal: Senator

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wisc.) said that the FBI ignored eyewitness testimony regarding President Joe Biden’s involvement in his son’s dealings with a Chinese conglomerate about a month before the 2020 election.

  

  The former Senate Homeland Security Committee chairman told the New York Post that “suppression and censoring of his testimony and Hunter’s influence peddling impacted the 2020 election” far worse than anything China or Russia could have achieved.

  About a month before the November 2020 election, a former associate of Hunter Biden, Tony Bobulinksi, told media outlets that Joe Biden was involved with his son’s and brother Jim Biden’s dealings with CEFC, a Chinese Communist Party-linked energy conglomerate. Bobulinksi confirmed the authenticity of emails sourced from the younger Biden’s laptop hard drive that referred to Joe Biden as “the big guy” due to a 10 percent cut in the new corporate organization.

  “Unfortunately, Tony Bobulinski’s first-hand eyewitness testimony regarding President Biden’s knowledge of Hunter Biden’s compromising web of foreign financial entanglements, especially with the Chinese, was not only ignored by the media, but also by the FBI,” Johnson said this week, referring to the 2020 claims.

  The Epoch Times reached out to the FBI for comment.

  Senate Report

  Johnson along with Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), who has long investigated Hunter Biden, published a lengthy report on the Bidens’ business dealings in September 2020 (pdf), which raised questions about the younger Biden’s reportedly lucrative position at Ukrainian gas company Burisma Holdings while his father was vice president and took a leading role in handling the Obama administration’s relations with Ukraine.

  The senator’s comment came in response to reports alleging that former FBI special agent Timothy Thibault, who departed the bureau last month, hid intelligence that was provided by Bobulinski.

  Thibault was named several times by Grassley and Johnson in letters to the FBI and claimed the former agent displayed an animus toward former President Donald Trump. Whistleblowers from within the bureau told Grassley that the FBI had obtained information in 2020 about “criminal financial and related activity” on behalf of Hunter Biden, according to one of the senator’s letters (pdf), dated July 25, which was then allegedly suppressed by Thibault.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 09/06/2022 – 21:40

• Mike Wilson Sees Stocks Tumbling To 3,400 In 3 Months, Slashes S&P EPS Forecasts As "Fire & Ice" Shifts Into High Gear
  Mike Wilson Sees Stocks Tumbling To 3,400 In 3 Months, Slashes S&P EPS Forecasts As “Fire & Ice” Shifts Into High Gear

  Over the weekend, in Morgan Stanley’s Sunday Start note, the bank’s in-house permabear Mike Wilson, previewed the topic of his weekly fire and brimstone sermon, which ironically was fire and ice, part 2, and his justification for why stocks are going far lower: his view that “this this time the decline in stocks will come mostly via lower earnings (and a higher equity risk premium) rather than higher rates” adding that the bank’s leading earnings models are all flashing red for the S&P 500, “and we have high confidence that the decline in NTM S&P 500 EPS forecasts is far from over.”

  Well, judging by today’s aggressive ERP expansion which saw all asset slump, Wilson was right again (and as usual miles ahead of the consensus). But just so Wall Street is up to speed with his latest worldview, Wilson spends much of his latest weekly note laying out his new concept, writing that while “fire and Ice” – Wilson’s framework which defined much of the past year –  has proven to be an effective way to describe the first half of this year – as Fed tightening in response to historically high inflation, the Fire, has weighed heavily on valuations for all asset markets while growth has also disappointed…the Ice – he writes that “part 2 will turn out to be more Icy than Fiery as slowing growth becomes the bigger concern for stocks, rather than inflation and the Fed.“

  Here are some more details on how Wilson sees the transition from part 1 to part 2 of “fire and ice”:

  At the risk of stating the obvious, 2022 has been a challenging year for stock investors of all stripes. The Russell 3000 is down approximately 18% (total return) year to date (YTD): and while Russell 3000 Growth has underperformed significantly (-24%), it’s been no picnic for value investors either (-11%). Clearly, the relative value trade of value over growth has worked well this year, but we note it’s mostly been due to Energy’s outperformance combined with defensive cohorts, rather than cyclicals like Financials. In fact, only 2 sectors, Energy and Utilities, are up in absolute terms this year while just 24% of all stocks in the Russell 3000 are in positive territory. To put that into context, in 2008, 48% of Russell 3000 stocks were up on the year as we entered the month of September. Suffice it to say, this year has been historically bad for stocks in terms of both price and breadth, but that is not a sufficient reason to be bullish. We think that poor breadth is indicative of more challenges to come on the growth side of the equation, which we address in our note today. While some have recently argued the breadth thrust off the June lows is a sign of better times ahead, we firmly disagree as our top down earnings work does not support such a conclusion. Meanwhile, that breadth thrust is losing altitude quickly and looks vulnerable to taking out the 50-day moving average, something it did not do off the March 2020 lows. Let the debate begin.

  

  Of course, as bad as it’s been for stocks, it’s been even worse for bonds on a risk-adjusted basis: 20-year Treasury bonds are down 24% YTD and the Barclay’s Agg. Index is off by 11%.

  Finally, commodities have been a mixed bag, too, with most commodities down on the year despite heightened inflationary concerns. To wit, the CRB RIND index, which measures the spot prices of a wide range of commodities, is down 7% YTD. Cash, on the other hand, is no longer trash, especially if one has taken advantage of the higher front-end rates. Interestingly, most of the damage for bonds was front end loaded as the Fed made its pivot clear in January.

  Wilson next reminds readers that he turned more positive on bonds versus stocks back in April, and while since then bonds have outperformed modestly, he argues that they now appear poised to see further outperformance technically and fundamentally if the second half brings more concern about growth rather than inflation as we expect. Outside the US, the picture is even clearer with bonds having outperformed stocks since June of 2021 with the global economy in far worse shape than the US.

  

  Next, Wilson extends on what he wrote over the weekend, and notes that while the June low for stocks and bonds was dramatic, he has been consistently in the camp that it wasn’t “THE low” for the S&P 500 in this bear market, but having said that, Wilson is more confident it was the low for long-term Treasuries for this cyclical bear market in view of the Fed’s aggressive action that has yet to fully play out in the real economy (well, maybe not, with 10Y yields soaring as we type this and threatening to break above the YTD highs). The MS strategist concedes that it may also have been the low for the average stock, given how poor the breadth was at that time, and the magnitude of the decline in certain stocks. His more pessimistic view on the S&P 500 index, meanwhile, is based on analysis that indicates all of the 30% de-rating in the forward S&P 500 P/E that occurred from December to June was due to higher rates: “we know this because the equity risk premium (ERP) was flat during this period. Meanwhile, forward NTM EPS estimates for the S&P 500 have come down by only ~1.5% and P/Es are now ~8% higher. With rates now ~30bp below the June highs, the ERP has fallen once again, to just ~285bp. This makes little sense, particularly given the significant slowdown in earnings we think is still to come.”

  

  And so, with the Fed dashing hopes for a dovish pivot (at least until futures tumble another 10%), Wilson thinks that asset markets may be entering fire and ice part two. In contrast with part one, this time the MS strategist contends that the decline in stocks should come mostly via a higher ERP and lower earnings rather than higher rates.

  Meanwhile, the bank’s earnings models are all flashing red for the S&P 500, and Wilson is highly confident that the decline in NTM S&P 500 EPS forecasts is far from over. In short, Wilson writes that “part two will be more icy than fiery, the opposite of 1H22. That’s not to say rates don’t matter – they do – and we expect bonds to perform better than stocks in this icier scenario.”

  What about the timing on Wilson’s “icy” forecast? Well, as the weather turns appropriately chilly this fall, so should growth – he writes – which could weigh mightily on stocks given the paltry ERP investors are getting paid to take this risk.

  And just to confirm his renewed bearish fervor, today Wilson revised his S&P 500 EPS estimates lower, and writes that “while we took our first cut to these numbers in our mid-year outlook, we waited to do the larger downward revision until now in order to better time the actual fall in bottom-up estimates, which drive stock prices. Our experience – i.e., prior mistakes – has taught us that it always takes longer for these cuts to play out than it should given the typical corporate optimism about the future.”

  So what are Wilson’s new S&P ESP forecasts following today’s downward revisions which point to continued and increasingly significant EPS growth downside well into 2023? Here is the answer:

  • cut the 2022 base case EPS estimate to $220 from $225 (down 2%),
  • 2023 base case estimate cut to $212 from $236 (down 10%),
  • 2024 base case estimate cut to $226 from $237 (down 5%).

  The ’22/’23/’24 base case estimates are now 3%/13%/14% below consensus, respectively, and more notably, in Morgan Stanley’s base case, 2023 now marks a modest earnings contraction (-3% year-over-year growth), although Morgan Stanley is still terrified to make a recession its base case scenario (that would scare off too many clients).

  The logic here is that nominal top line growth slows, but remains positive (mid-single-digit territory), while margins contract materially (1-1.5% margin compression) driven by sticky cost pressures, particularly on the labor side. The bank’s 2023 bear case EPS is  modestly lower to $190 from $195 – a case which continues to assume an economic recession (consistent with views published in our mid-year outlook), and implies an 11% year-over-year EPS growth contraction. The ’23 bull case EPS forecast also comes down to $234 from $245. In this scenario, nominal top line is slightly better and margin pressure is less significant.

  

  Yet while the bank slashes its EPS forecasts, its price targets set in June do not change, and EPS downside is offset by modest upside in P/E multiple expectations (ye olde goalseeking trick). The good news is that the bank’s new price and multiple expectations
  are point in time, June 2023 estimates. By then, Wilson notes, equities will be processing the growth path into 2024 (a  reacceleration), not the decelerating growth path into 2023 that’s in the rear view. As such, Wilson’s call for price downside as a result of declining EPS into mid-2023 – the basis of this note, and a high conviction view – is very much a tactical view (next 3 months). To further reinforce this point, the strategist notes that the market multiple typically troughs when EPS is only a third of the way through its decline (i.e., price front-runs EPS declines).

  Putting it all together, Wilson’s base case tactical view remains that fair value price for the S&P 500 is ~3,400, and while he expects that price level to be reached before year end, stocks will then work back toward 3,900 by mid next year (actually they will be much higher as the QE needed to monetize all the energy stimmies will long have been in play by then). As previously noted, Wilson thinks tactical fair value in his bear case (an economic recession) is 3,000, which implies an overshoot to the downside of his June ’23 bear case price target in advance of that date.

  * * *

  Wilson’s bottom line: the next several quarters will end up containing some of the most significant downward revisions to forward EPS forecasts seen in the past several cycles. As for valuation, the Morgan Stanley strategist thinks very little of these revisions have actually been discounted, as evidenced by the still depressed ERP component of the S&P 500 P/E ratio. While that view could be challenged as a subjective one, Wilson is confident that his ERP model suggests it is at least 100bps too low today and probably even more since the US is headed toward a recession (our bear case). That said, the strategist certainly appreciates that “this debate is what makes a market and have no illusion markets can trade more richly than they should for long periods of time.” On that note, he thinks the increased size of QT that is expected to begin this month could play a significant role in changing the market’s view of fair value for the ERP.

  Full Mike Wilson report available to pro subscribers.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 09/06/2022 – 21:20

• A Glitch In The Matrix? Researchers Explore Déjà Vu… And How The Brain Can Sometimes Short-Circuit
  A Glitch In The Matrix? Researchers Explore Déjà Vu… And How The Brain Can Sometimes Short-Circuit

  Via The Epoch Times,

  Have you ever experienced the sudden feeling of somehow being exactly where you’ve been before, doing exactly what you swear you’ve already done? It could be while rearranging your living room, having a conversation, or simply sitting alone doing nothing.

  If so, you’re not alone.

  This feeling of familiarity is, of course, known as déjà vu (a French term meaning “already seen”) and it’s reported to occur on an occasional basis in 60 to 80 percent of people. It’s an experience that’s almost always fleeting and it occurs at random.

  So what is responsible for these feelings of familiarity?

  Despite coverage in popular culture, experiences of déjà vu are poorly understood in scientific terms. Déjà vu occurs briefly, without warning, and has no physical manifestations other than the announcement: “I just had déjà vu!”

  Many researchers propose that the phenomenon is a memory-based experience and assume the memory centers of the brain are responsible for it.

  

  Memory Systems

  The medial temporal lobes are vital for the retention of long-term memories of events and facts. Certain regions of the medial temporal lobes are important in the detection of familiarity, or recognition, as opposed to the detailed recollection of specific events.

  It has been proposed that familiarity detection depends on rhinal cortex function, whereas detailed recollection is linked to the hippocampus.

  The randomness of déjà vu experiences in healthy individuals makes it difficult to study it in an empirical manner. Any such research is reliant on self-reporting from the people involved.

  Glitches in the Matrix

  A subset of epilepsy patients consistently experience déjà vu at the onset of a seizure—that is, when seizures begin in the medial temporal lobe. This has given researchers a more experimentally controlled way of studying déjà vu.

  Epileptic seizures are evoked by alterations in electrical activity in neurons within focal regions of the brain. This dysfunctional neuronal activity can spread across the whole brain like the shock waves generated from an earthquake. The brain regions in which this electrical activation can occur include the medial temporal lobes.

  Electrical disturbance of this neural system generates an aura (a warning of sorts) of déjà vu prior to the epileptic event.

  By measuring neuronal discharges in the brains of these patients, scientists have been able to identify the regions of the brain where déjà vu signals begin.

  It has been found that déjà vu is more readily induced in epilepsy patients through electrical stimulation of the rhinal cortices as opposed to the hippocampus. These observations led to the speculation that déjà vu is caused by a dysfunctional electrical discharge in the brain.

  These neuronal discharges can occur in a non-pathological manner in people without epilepsy. An example of this is a hyponogogic jerk, the involuntary twitch that can occur just as you are falling asleep.

  It has been proposed that déjà vu could be triggered by a similar neurological discharge, resulting in a strange sense of familiarity.

  Some researchers argue that the type of déjà vu experienced by temporal lobe epilepsy patients is different from typical déjà vu.

  The déjà vu experienced prior to an epileptic seizure may be enduring, rather than fleeting—as it is for those who don’t have epileptic seizures. In people without epilepsy, the vivid recognition combined with the knowledge that the environment is truly novel intrinsically underpins the experience of déjà vu.

  Mismatches and Short Circuits

  Déjà vu in healthy participants is reported as a memory error, which may expose the nature of the memory system. Some researchers speculate that déjà vu occurs due to a discrepancy in memory systems leading to the inappropriate generation of a detailed memory from a new sensory experience.

  That is, information bypasses short-term memory and instead reaches long-term memory.

  This implies déjà vu is evoked by a mismatch between the sensory input and memory-recalling output. This explains why a new experience can feel familiar, but not as tangible as a fully recalled memory.

  Other theories suggest activation of the rhinal neural system, involved in the detection of familiarity, occurs without activation of the recollection system within the hippocampus. This leads to the feeling of recognition without specific details.

  Related to this theory, it was proposed that déjà vu is a reaction of the brain’s memory systems to a familiar experience. This experience is known to be novel, but has many recognizable elements, albeit in a slightly different setting. An example? Being in a bar or restaurant in a foreign country that has the same layout as one you go to regularly at home.

  Even more theories exist regarding the cause of déjà vu. These span from the paranormal—past lives, alien abduction, and precognitive dreams—to memories formed from experiences that are not first-hand (such as scenes in movies).

  So far, there is no simple explanation as to why déjà vu occurs, but advances in neuroimaging techniques may aid our understanding of memory and the tricks our minds seem to play on us.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 09/06/2022 – 21:00

• Kansas School District Pays $95K Settlement After Suspending Teacher For Not Using Preferred Pronouns
  Kansas School District Pays $95K Settlement After Suspending Teacher For Not Using Preferred Pronouns

  A Kansas school district has agreed to pay a settlement of $95,000 in a civil lawsuit brought by a teacher who was suspended for refusing to use the preferred pronouns of a self-declared trans student (a female demanding to be referred to as “he/him”).

  Pamela Ricard, a math teacher at Fort Riley Middle School, says she was pressured by school officials to placate a trans student in her class by using preferred pronouns.  When Ricard asked for a religious exemption to the rule she was allegedly denied.  Ricard also claimed that the school district forced teachers to lie to parents about students and their trans status, and even asked teachers to not use student trans names during parent/teacher conferences in order to avoid revealing any sensitive information.    

  Ricard received a three day suspension after referring to the trans student as “Miss,” and for using the student’s legal enrolled name.  She was warned that any further “misgendering” would lead to more disciplinary actions.  

  It is important to note that there are no laws in the state of Kansas requiring that anyone use transgender pronouns, and that these rules were being unilaterally enforced by school district officials.  The Fort Riley School District was cornered into settlement when a federal court ruled in May that Pamela Ricard had a religious right to refuse censorship and to refuse to submit to pronoun requirements.  They also ruled that teachers cannot be pressured to keep secrets from the parents of trans students.

  

  The Kansas incident is only one of thousands of exposed events that prove the existence of a concerted widespread social justice agenda within the American school system.  Though the political left has consistently claimed that such an agenda does not exist and that parent accusations are nothing more than “conspiracy theory,” the evidence is undeniable.  

  The exposure of transgender indoctrination and policy enforcement in schools led to a national firestorm over Florida’s anti-grooming bill, which leftists called the “Don’t Say Gay Bill.”  The bill, now passed into law, prevents teachers from engaging in sexualized discussions or sexualized propaganda lessons with young children, and also demands that teachers share their lesson plans with parents.  Teachers that violate the law can be fired.

  Multiple states across the country have had to formulate similar pieces of legislation as a means to stop intersectional ideology from being injected into school curriculum.  Florida alone found that at least 44% of school textbooks the state reviewed contained multiple instances of social justice propaganda including Critical Race Theory propaganda.  Interestingly, the majority of the propaganda was discovered in books for children K-5. 

  Desantis provided multiple examples of leftist and CRT propaganda implanted in school texts, but to this day leftists claim no examples were given and that CRT is “not real.” 

  Twitter group ‘Libs Of TikTok’ famously showcased hundreds of video, made mostly by teachers, in which they openly admit to indoctrinating students with LGBT and CRT propaganda in their classrooms.  The group has faced multiple suspensions from various social media platforms, and has been accused of “hateful conduct” simply for reposting the videos to their own account.  

  The trans movement is a movement to control and to dictate speech while pretending it is a movement for civil rights.  No one has a right to compel another person by force or coercion to use their preferred pronouns.  The entire situation can be bewildering because of the multiple tentacles the extreme left employs in their culture war, but there are some rules that can help to clear the fog and confusion.

  The first rule which makes it possible to understand and predict the actions of the social justice left:  They ALWAYS lie.

  The second rule is:  They always double down on the lies.

  The third rule is:  They always gaslight when they are caught lying.

  The fourth rule is:  Believe what you see right in front of your eyes, not what they say that you should see.      

  The Kansas settlement for Pamela Ricard reveals yet another piece of the hidden puzzle that is woke ideology within public schools.  It is an indoctrination process that has been ongoing for years and only recently have parents started to notice and become involved.  

  Interestingly, though, in the case of Fort Riley, it was apparently school district officials that were threatening teachers in order to make them comply with the agenda, rather than specific teachers trying to slip their propaganda under the radar.  This shows that leftist teachers grooming children is not the only concern – We must also watch out for School board members and other officials using their power to frighten non-woke teachers into silence.    

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 09/06/2022 – 20:40

• "Blackouts Imminent" – 75,000 Powerless As Record California Power Usage Sparks 'Demand Response Event'
  “Blackouts Imminent” – 75,000 Powerless As Record California Power Usage Sparks ‘Demand Response Event’

  Update (2030ET): As was expected earlier, California power usage surged to a record high this afternoon raising the emergency status of the state’s electrical system to the highest possible level amid a blistering heat wave, which means rolling blackouts are imminent.

  

  This triggered a “demand response event”…

  

  And CA ISO is warning of more “blackouts imminent”.

  “This is going to be so dicey,” Michael Wara, director of Stanford University’s climate and energy policy program, said earlier in the day.

  “There’s a gap for two hours in the evening right now between available supply and projected demand.”

  This farce for one of the most-taxed states comes just four days after President Biden’s Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm praised the state’s green energy policies.

  Granholm said that California was leading the nation in green energy development and praised its ability to shape national energy policy, according to an interview conducted by Fox 11 Los Angeles.

  “I love the fact that California is unabashedly bold about (green) energy policy,” Granholm stated, calling the state as a green “leader” for the rest of the country.

  “California’s boldness has … shaped our willingness in the federal government to move further and faster,” she said of California’s green energy policies.

  California’s energy policy has currently left 75,000 Californians without power already…

  

  And the state’s largest power company, PG&E Corp., said in a statement that it had notified about 525,000 homes and businesses that they could lose power for up to two hours.

  So this is what the rest of America can look forward to?

  *  *  *

  Update (1700ET): As we warned about earlier, Califiornians are apparently not heeding officials’ warnings that they should sacrifice their comfort for the sake of whatever business or social-engineering plan is the new thing.

  CAISO shows that usage is up 13% today from yesterday at the same time of day and for a second consecutive day, the state’s grid operator issued a level-2 energy emergency alert.

  

  The emergency declaration allows officials to order some large power consumers to shut down in a last-ditch effort to avoid outages.

  “We are heading into the worst part of this heat wave, and the risk for outages is real and it’s immediate,” California Governor Gavin Newsom said in a video posted Tuesday on Twitter. He urged residents and businesses to cut back on energy use during the late afternoon and early evening to help the state avoid outages.

  And average day-ahead prices for power on Tuesday in the southern part of the state surged 44% to $300.55 a megawatt-hour, the highest in 18 months.

  

  With heat soaring things are only likely to get worse:

  “We’re looking at a lot of records today,” said Bob Oravec, a senior branch forecaster at the US Weather Prediction Center.

  “They are having a lot of issues with power out there, and this isn’t going to help.”

  *  *  *

  California narrowly avoided rotating outages on Monday while power grid officials asked customers to conserve electricity amid a record-breaking heatwave.

  The prospect of outages did not bother Californians. Many customers continued to use appliances, air conditioning, and at-home electric vehicle chargers despite conservation pleas from California Independent System Operator (CAISO). 

  Monday was the fifth straight day CAISO warned about a blistering heat wave that pushed its electric system to the brink. Even though no widespread blackouts were reported, electricity demand surged to one of the highest levels (52,646 megawatts), outlining how customers widely ignored conservation calls. 

  

  A Reuters report showed soaring demand for electricity sent power prices in the state to the highest levels since August 2020.

  Power prices at the Palo Verde hub in Arizona and SP-15 in Southern California rose to $850 and $505 per megawatt hour, respectively. That was their highest levels since hitting record highs of $1,311 in Palo Verde and $698 in SP-15 in August 2020 when the ISO last imposed rotating outages.

  CAISO predicts demand could reach all-time high levels today as homes and businesses turn their thermostats down to escape triple-digit temperatures.

  

  And since Californians aren’t conserving electricity as demand steadily rises, this could mean CAISO would instruct utilities to start imposing rotating outages if duress on the grid continued — maybe then, after the fact, customers will get the message to conserve. 

  Elliot Mainzer, CEO of CASIO, said Monday: “We need a reduction in energy use that is two or three times greater than what we’ve seen so far as this historic heat wave continues to intensify.”

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 09/06/2022 – 20:39

• Top Senator: FBI Director Wray Must Do "Much More" To Combat Agency Bias
  Top Senator: FBI Director Wray Must Do “Much More” To Combat Agency Bias

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

  Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) proclaimed this week that FBI Director Christopher Wray has to do “much more” to deal with alleged bias inside the bureau amid whistleblower claims that agents slow-walked an investigation into Hunter Biden and the current probe targeting former President Donald Trump.

  “We wouldn’t even know about it if there weren’t whistleblowers, very patriotic people in the Justice Department that came to me and gave me this information about Thibault,” Grassley, the ranking Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee, told Fox News on Monday, referring to former FBI special agent Timothy Thibault, who left the bureau several weeks ago.

  

  Grassley said Thibault allegedly opened an investigation into Trump “based upon very just fuzzy newspaper reporting and then closes down an investigation on Hunter,” referring to President Joe Biden’s son.

  “At least Wray moved him out of that position. Now he is not even in the department,” the Republican senator continued.

  “But I think Wray has to do much more to come up with a plan to show that this political bias within the FBI is going to be attacked and rooted out.”

  “Total transparency is important,” he concluded. “The public’s business has to be public.”

  Whistleblowers

  A lawyer for Thibault, an assistant special agent in charge at the FBI’s Washington Field Office, confirmed that he departed the bureau in late August, although the lawyer disputed claims that he “did not supervise the investigation” into Hunter Biden and wasn’t “involved in any decisions related to any laptop that may be at issue in that investigation.”

  The lawyers also said there was nothing controversial about how he was escorted out of the building following his departure.

  

  Chuck Grassley (R-IA) speaks during a Senate Judiciary hearing in Washington, DC on April 20, 2021. (Bill Clark-Pool/Getty Images)

  Thibault turned in his security badge before he “walked with two long-time special agent friends through the field office to finish processing his paperwork,” Thibault’s lawyers added to The Epoch Times. “He walked out of the building by himself. Claims to the contrary are false.”

  In late July, Grassley said that “highly credible” whistleblowers approached his office and said there is widespread bias within the FBI, including efforts to discredit or downplay investigations into Hunter Biden There was a 2020 FBI intelligence assessment, Grassley wrote in a letter, that was “used by an FBI headquarters team to improperly discredit negative Hunter Biden information as disinformation.”

  “Based on allegations, verified and verifiable derogatory information on Hunter Biden was falsely labeled as disinformation,” he said, citing whistleblower claims.

  While the FBI whistleblowers have not been identified, a lawyer for several of them told the Washington Times late last month that agents have “lost confidence” in Wray’s leadership amid the bias allegations.

  “I’m hearing from [FBI staff] that they feel like the director has lost control of the bureau,” Kurt Siuzdak, a lawyer and former agent who represents FBI whistleblowers, said in an interview last week. “They’re saying, ‘How does this guy survive? He’s leaving. He’s got to leave.’”

  “All Wray does is go in and say we need more training and we’re doing stuff about it, or we will not tolerate it,” added Siuzdak.

  The Epoch Times has contacted the FBI for comment.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 09/06/2022 – 20:20

• Putin Attends Military Drills With China, Hails Beijing's "Balanced Approach" To Ukraine Crisis
  Putin Attends Military Drills With China, Hails Beijing’s “Balanced Approach” To Ukraine Crisis

  President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday attended and observed the Vostok-22 Russian war games in person, held in the country’s far east, as well as in waters just off the eastern coast.

  Crucially, the exercises featured Chinese military participation, and others including military units from India and Syria. “According to Moscow, over 50,000 soldiers and more than 5,000 units of military equipment, including 140 aircraft and 60 ships, were to be involved in the drills,” The Moscow Times writes.

  

  This year’s drills are being described as greatly scaled down compared to the largest Vostok games which took place in 2018 – which is no doubt due to Russia’s concentration of forces for its invasion of Ukraine.

  The ongoing drills began on Sept. 1 and are scheduled to end on Wednesday. “Putin met Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and military chief of staff Valery Gerasimov at the Sergeyevsky military range and later observed the final phase of the military exercises,” The Moscow Times describes.

  Putin is also in the far east to address the Eastern Economic Forum hosted in the port city of Vladivostok, where an estimated 5,000 people are in attendance for the four-day conference that kicked off Monday. The largest delegation in attendance is from China:

  At the forum’s plenary session Putin will be joined by China’s top legislator Li Zhanshu — who ranks third in the Chinese government hierarchy — with a bilateral meeting also on the agenda.

  Li will become the highest-ranking Communist party politician to travel to the country since Moscow’s military intervention in Ukraine.

  The Kremlin issued a statement underscoring the importance of the large Chinese presence: “Russia-China relations of comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation are developing progressively,” it said before the bilateral meeting with Putin.

  The statement further hailed “China’s balanced approach to the Ukraine crisis” and its “understanding” of what’s driving Moscow’s ‘special operation’ in Ukraine.

  Keeping with tradition, Putin, Shoigu, and Gerasimov are all at the Sergeevsky training area for the active phase of this year’s annual strategic command-staff exercise, which is Vostok 2022. https://t.co/Rqf8UQodWF pic.twitter.com/INm8hGdrQj

  — Rob Lee (@RALee85) September 6, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  In October, Russia and China held joint naval drills in the Sea of Japan. Days later, Russian and Chinese warships held their first joint patrols in the western Pacific. The next month, South Korea’s military said it had scrambled fighter jets after two Chinese and seven Russian warplanes intruded into its air defense identification zone during what Beijing called regular training.

  Just days before Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, Beijing and Moscow announced a “no limits” partnership, although U.S. officials say they have not seen China evade U.S.-led sanctions on Russia or provide it with military equipment. Russia’s eastern military district includes part of Siberia and has its headquarters in Khabarovsk, near the Chinese border.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 09/06/2022 – 20:00

• Huh? Biden Screams That He "Beat Pharma This Year"
  Huh? Biden Screams That He “Beat Pharma This Year”

  Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

  During a Labor Day speech in Milwaukee Monday, Joe Biden screamed that he “beat pharma this year” despite the fact that he provided billions in record profits for the pharmaceutical industry by attempting to enforce vaccine mandates.

  

  Watch:

  Pres. Biden hails bill putting cap on out-of-pocket prescription drug costs for Medicare recipients: “We beat Pharma this year! And it mattered! We’re going to change people’s lives.” https://t.co/WpjeEnDOqR pic.twitter.com/paEy4CF8Pg

  — ABC News (@ABC) September 5, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Biden repeated the claim at a second speech in Pittsburgh:

  Biden: “I have been fighting pharma for my entire career, my entire career, and we finally beat pharma!”

  Back in the real world, big pharma have raked in record amounts of money since he took office off the back of the plandemic. pic.twitter.com/C8bOYelHRF

  — Ioan Haboczki (@haboczki) September 6, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  A few violent extremists took issue with Biden’s claim:

  Biden didn’t beat Big Pharma; he invited them into the WH #BidensLying https://t.co/I5abwDBfXv

  — mjsb (@mjsb143) September 6, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Crooked Biden beat Pharma this year by transferring tens of billions to their packets.

  — A My Burakami (@JohnOrlinski) September 6, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  I’m confused why is Biden super angry yelling here? Also what does he mean by beat pharma??? What did we beat as I’m sure big pharma has profited so much from these poison vaccines

  — Coollatiaslatios (@pikachusandile8) September 6, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Biden: “we beat Pharma this year”

  Apparently another teleprompter mistake. The correct line was “we helped Pharma beat their earning estimates this year” 🤡pic.twitter.com/4QdVkNfTCV

  — Dr. Eli David (@DrEliDavid) September 5, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Oh, you beat pharma, @potus.

  I’m sorry, I meant to say you helped pharma beat record profits! 😂 https://t.co/rgntH48RUq pic.twitter.com/zIWXo8YIzp

  — Viva Frei (@thevivafrei) September 5, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Biden: “We Beat Pharma this year and it Mattered”

  Was that before or after they mandated the Jab, gave them trillions of dollars, and voted them immunity from prosecution?

  No One has been Beaten, except for US Tax Paying Citizens!!!
  🙄🙄🙄

  — Chuck Sharp (@Chuck69i) September 6, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “I have been fighting pharma for my entire career—my entire career—and we finally beat pharma!” ~ Joe Biden

  FunFact: Donors from pharmaceutical industry contributed $6.3 million to the 2020 campaign of Joe Biden ( this is just the official figure)pic.twitter.com/xJKvfO91Ng

  — The Poll Lady (@ThePollLady) September 6, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  It took less than one year for Joe Biden to go from “Pandemic of the unvaccinated” to “we beat pharma this year” https://t.co/lRcO5EAQrx

  — Rising serpent 🇺🇸 (@rising_serpent) September 6, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  *  *  *

  Brand new merch now available! Get it at https://www.pjwshop.com/

  In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. We need you to sign up for our free newsletter here. Support our sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown.
  Also, we urgently need your financial support here.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 09/06/2022 – 19:40

• California's 2035 EV Mandate Being Debated In More Than Dozen States
  California’s 2035 EV Mandate Being Debated In More Than Dozen States

  More than a dozen states are now debating whether to adopt California’s radical green vehicle initiative, which bans all gasoline-powered new car sales by 2035.

  Fox News reported seventeen states could soon be on a path to follow the Golden State’s emission standards.

  Several of the 17 states are likely to move forward with the plan, including Washington, Massachusetts, New York, Oregon, and Vermont. California’s restrictions are the strictest in the country, mandating that all new vehicles run on either electricity or hydrogen by 2035.

  Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, New Jersey, New Mexico, the District of Columbia, and Rhode Island are other states that might consider the new emission standards. 

  Meanwhile, Colorado, Pennsylvania, and Virginia are three states rebelling against rapidly moving toward electric vehicles. 

  

  The problem with states mandating future new car sales to be 100% electric in 13 years is that power grids will need a drastic upgrade to handle the millions of new EVs. Consider California. There are more than a million plug-in vehicles registered in the state, and in the last week, utility officials requested EV owners not to charge their vehicles due to a menacing heatwave. 

  Without a power grid overhaul to reliable on-demand clean energy, such as nuclear, grids across the country will be under extreme duress in the future of increased EVs on roads, leading to instability issues and frequent blackouts, similar to a third world country (or California). 

  Forcing everyone to depend on a battery without a grid overhaul sounds like a catastrophe waiting to happen.

  Let’s hope this 2030 prediction doesn’t play out:

  Its 2030

  Your house is 99 degrees and you cant put on AC because the governor declared an emergency

  You get into your EV but the screen says it wasn’t charging, governor’s orders

  You decide to go to a park but a cop stops you saying its illegal to leave your quarantine zone https://t.co/MDzjYWsl5Y

  — Tim Pool (@Timcast) September 1, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 09/06/2022 – 19:20

• The Vital Role Of Nuclear Power In Reducing Emissions
  The Vital Role Of Nuclear Power In Reducing Emissions

  Authored by Robert Rapier via OilPrice.com,

  • The growth of the renewable energy industry in the last decade has been remarkable, but these new technologies cannot supply global energy demand.

  • Nearly every model out there points to the important role nuclear power must play in an energy system designed to reduce emissions.

  • In order to ensure the future of nuclear power, the world needs safe reactor designs, effective waste disposal solutions, and more political support.

  Any time I write about nuclear power, it evokes passionate responses from readers. That was certainly the case following my previous article, Nuclear Power Could Cut The World’s Carbon Emissions In Half.

  

  There is always a contingent who are convinced that all we need is solar power. I tend to think of these people as those “who haven’t done the math.” They provide lots of qualitative responses like “solar is cheaper than nuclear power” and cite solar energy’s incredible growth rate.

  It is true that solar is ramping up rapidly. In fact, I have written about it many times. All the way back in 2007 I wrote The Future is Solar. I have written dozens of articles on the topic since. But some solar proponents always try to convince me that we don’t need nuclear by citing facts I already know.

  Consider one of the responses to a discussion that broke out on Twitter following my previous article. Jigar Shah is the director of the Loan Programs Office of the U.S. Department of Energy. He was the founder of one of the early, successful solar companies, SunEdison. There isn’t a bigger advocate of cleantech out there than Jigar. But he knows that solar can’t do it alone, tweeting in response to someone who suggested otherwise:

  It is not a choice between the two. #solar will grow as fast as it physically can and won’t be 100%. Same with #wind, #geothermal, #hydro, #BiomassCCS, #efficiency, etc. You still have a huge political/resiliency hole that #nuclear has to fill. Every model shows it. #cleanfirm

  — Jigar Shah (@JigarShahDC) August 27, 2022

  [ZH: the tweet has since been deleted]

  Jigar argues that as fast as solar grows, it won’t be fast enough. There is a hole that nuclear has to fill. “Every model shows it.”

  In fact, the International Energy Agency knows it, projecting that we will need to double the world’s nuclear output by 2050 to reach net zero energy.

  That’s the difference between someone who has looked in detail at the numbers and someone who hasn’t. It’s the reason so many environmental organizations and advocates have come to the conclusion that if we don’t have a faster ramp-up of nuclear power, the world is going to keep burning coal.

  Look, I wish renewables could do it all. But the largest renewable market in the world certainly doesn’t think so.

  China has rolled out more solar power in recent years than any other country. Last year China’s solar output increased by 66 terawatt-hours (TWh). That was good for 35% of the entire global increase in solar power. China’s total solar generation for the year — 327 TWh — was double that of the U.S., which is in second place globally.

  But that hasn’t stopped China from building both new coal-fired power plants and new nuclear plants. China’s coal consumption has more than doubled in the past 20 years. The country accounts for 53.8% of the world’s coal consumption, and last year China set a new record for coal consumption.

  However, China has recognized that solar power — as fast as they are adding it — can’t do it all. That’s why China’s nuclear power output is growing steadily. Over the past decade, China’s average annual growth in nuclear power output was 16.7% — the most for any country except Iran. Over that time, China’s nuclear power consumption has increased by 320 TWh, and they still have 21 nuclear reactors under construction.

  Total global nuclear consumption increased by 148 TWh in the past decade, which means outside of China, nuclear power consumption declined over the past decade.

  Where is nuclear power growing? Below are the 10 countries with the fastest growth rates for nuclear power over the past decade.

  1. Iran — 41.9% average annual growth from 2011-2021

  2. China — 16.7%

  3. Pakistan — 14.9%

  4. Argentina — 5.4%

  5. India — 3.1%

  6. Russia — 2.5%

  7. Mexico — 1.7%

  8. Czech Republic — 0.8%

  9. Belgium — 0.5%

  10. Slovakia — 0.2%

  Global growth is an anemic 0.5%. In the U.S., which is still the world’s largest market for nuclear power with a 29% share globally — nuclear output declined by 0.2% on average over the past decade. The European Union saw an even bigger decline, at 1.3% per year.

  The EU overall is dependent upon nuclear power for 11% of its primary energy consumption. For the U.S. that number is 8.0% (this is for all energy consumption). In contrast, Asia Pacific’s, which is the region responsible for most of the world’s carbon emissions, is only dependent on nuclear power for 2.4% of its primary energy consumption.

  Can Asia Pacific region continue to develop with renewables supplying the bulk of the new energy demand? Given the rapid growth of overall energy demand in the region, it appears highly unlikely that renewables alone can meet the demand. In recent years this has translated into a large expansion of fossil fuel consumption in these regions.

  More nuclear power in developing regions could help supply growing energy demands without a continued explosion in the region’s carbon dioxide emissions. However, the world needs safe nuclear reactor designs, effective waste disposal solutions, and more political support.

  In the next article, I will relay findings on all of these fronts from a recent conversation I had with Dr. Kathryn Huff, the Assistant Secretary for the Office of Nuclear Energy.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 09/06/2022 – 19:00

• Biden Issues "Final Decision" On State Sponsor Of Terror Label For Russia
  Biden Issues “Final Decision” On State Sponsor Of Terror Label For Russia

  President Joe Biden has made up his mind regarding whether or not to designate Russia an official ‘state sponsor of terror’ – after both the Ukrainian government as well as some prominent Democratic Congressmembers have been pushing hard for him to do so.

  Biden has “made a final decision against designating Russia as a state sponsor of terror,” White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre said Tuesday, according to Reuters. She described that “The designation of Russia as state sponsor of terror could delay food exports and jeopardize deals to move goods through the Black Sea,” according to a press readout.

  

  The reference wis to a delicate UN-brokered agreement between Russia, Ukraine, and Turkey to allow grain exports to leave Ukrainian ports through a monitored ‘safety corridor’. 

  Jean-Pierre was following up on a comment made by Biden the day prior:

  U.S. President Joe Biden on Monday said Russia should not be designated a state sponsor of terrorism, a label Ukraine has pushed for amid Russia’s ongoing invasion while Moscow has warned it would rupture U.S.-Russian ties.

  Asked if Russia should be designated a state sponsor of terrorism, Biden told reporters at the White House: “No.”

  In July, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told Secretary of State Antony Blinken that the White House must designate Russia or else Congress would do it. The formal designation would allow the further expansion of sanctions on the targeted nation, and would place Russia on the list with Cuba, Iran, North Korea, and Syria.

  While some countries like Latvia and Lithuania have already made the formal designation, the US administration has consistently resisted calls to do so, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently arguing that a terror designation wouldn’t change things much:

  “The costs that have been imposed on Russia by us and by other countries are absolutely in line with the consequences that would follow from designation as a state sponsor of terrorism,” he said in July.

  Earlier in the now six-month Ukraine conflict, the Biden administration began using the word “genocide” when talking about alleged Russian atrocities (but more recently has stopped using the specific word), but has so far resisted some Congressional calls to label Russia a terror state sponsor. 

  TL;DR
  Moscow is mainly the same as it was. Most people are carrying on as normal, and for the most part, change is barely noticeable. However, prices of certain things have skyrocketed (restaurants, clothes, travel), and there are signs things may get worse.

  — Jonny Tickle (@jonnytickle) September 6, 2022

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  Moscow has previously warned that if the US went through with a terror label designation, it would immediately sever all diplomatic relations. While relations are already of course at a low point in recent history due to the ongoing Ukraine invasion, each side still has their embassies open and diplomats in residence – though John Sullivan, the US ambassador to Moscow, has announced his retirement this week after nearly three years at the post.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 09/06/2022 – 18:40

• Oil Market Is Short On Conviction And Positioning
  Oil Market Is Short On Conviction And Positioning

  By Alex Longley, Bloomberg markets live commentator and reporter

  Last year a much-loved phrase of Goldman’s commodity guru Jeff Currie was that the oil market was long on conviction, short on position — in the third quarter, the oil market has been short on both conviction and position.

  Currie’s premise last year was that a huge chunk of the oil market was bullish but that traders weren’t backing those in a big way. Right now, the oil market is gripped by a whirlwind of headlines — a cap on Russian oil prices, a surprise OPEC+ cut, a global growth slowdown and the potential return of Iranian oil supplies to name but a few — but options trades show the huge spread of views out there.

  On Monday, 5,000 Brent $200 calls for October traded. A cheap punt on higher prices, pretty straightforward. But on the same day, another trader was buying ratio $70/$75 put spreads for October. A cheap bet on a collapse in prices over the next two weeks.

  

  With futures open interest generally falling as well, it’s clear that the oil market remains light on position. But what the options market tells us right now, is that unlike the pre-war oil market, lots of traders are also struggling with conviction in the face of big intraday price swings.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 09/06/2022 – 18:20

• "A Dangerous Escalation": Majority Of Americans Think Biden Speech Was "Designed To Incite Conflict"
  “A Dangerous Escalation”: Majority Of Americans Think Biden Speech Was “Designed To Incite Conflict”

  

  A majority of Americans, 56.8% think Biden’s declaration of war on Trump voters was a “dangerous escalation in rhetoric” which was “designed to incite conflict amongst Americans,” according to a new poll by the Trafalgar group.

  

  Perhaps even more telling is that 71% of Democrats said Biden’s speech – in which he said “MAGA forces” pose a “clear and present danger” to Democracy – thought it was simply “acceptable campaign messaging that is to be expected in an election year.”

  

  What should worry Democrats is that 62% of independent voters agreed with 89.1% of Republicans who said the speech was a “dangerous escalation.”

  This, from the president who campaigned on uniting America against hatred. 

  Conservatives on social media were appalled at the speech.

  I work hard, garden, cook, bake, spin, knit weave and throw pots. I’ve been married 33 years and have two grown kids. I’ve owned businesses and pay taxes.

  I am a threat to the very soul of this nation.

  — Rani, Last of The Red Hot Boomers (@ShadesOfRani) September 4, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  pic.twitter.com/qAVpdrNHzd

  — Joshua Hamm (@Joshua_R_Hamm) September 2, 2022

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  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 09/06/2022 – 18:00

• Why Some Cities May No Longer Be Viable
  Why Some Cities May No Longer Be Viable

  Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

  Any city whose lifeblood ultimately depends on hyper-globalization and hyper-financialization will no longer be viable.

  

  The human migration from the countryside to cities has been an enduring feature of civilization. Cities concentrate wealth, productivity and power, and so they’re magnets to talent and capital, offering newcomers the greatest opportunities.

  Cities are efficient, packing population, productivity and wealth creation into small areas. Slums and sweatshops are immensely profitable, and cramming people into centers of manufacturing is far more efficient than scattering people and production across a landscape.

  Cities generally arose on coastal harbors, navigable rivers or the confluence of overland trade routes, as these hubs enabled profitable trade and transport of goods protected by defensible barriers.

  In sum, cities offered unmatchable advantages over more widely distributed settlements, trade and production. Given their typically strategic location and regional dominance, they tend to become political, military and cultural centers as well as economic / financial heavyweights.

  But the nature of cities has changed, and so has their viability as magnets for talent and capital. I recently discussed these shifts with longtime correspondent T.D., who succinctly summarized the economic foundations of New York City–a set of dynamics that applies in one way or another to virtually all major cities globally: cities are transport / value-added hubs.

  “With the creation of the Erie Canal, New York became a major port and city, a place where cheap immigrant labor and the precursors to all sorts of products could be immediately brought together in a value-added manner for finishing into a manufactured product which was then cost effectively shipped onward.”

  These longstanding economic foundations began shifting in the 1970s. Slums and manufacturing were deemed undesirable for environmental and aesthetic reasons, and globalization began chipping away at manufacturing within costly urban zones as production was shipped to lower-cost regions.

  The other core dynamic of the past 40 years, financialization, replaced value-added trade and goods with value-added financial instruments and services. As globalization and financialization transitioned to hyper-globalization and hyper-financialization, cities became magnets for real estate speculation, global capital seeking a safe place to park money, healthcare and higher education. status-enhancing conspicuous consumption and entertainment, i.e. the good life of diverse cultural attractions, neighborhoods, venues, cafes, bars and nightlife, all of which are the foundation of global tourism, now the primary industry in many cities.

  The shift to finance funded both the speculation and the consumption. Cities morphed from centers of value-added manufacturing and trade to financial transactions and the origination of financial instruments, developments which enabled and expanded a series of ever-larger speculative bubbles.

  Cities have always been more expensive than the countryside, but hyper-financialization has boosted urban costs to the point that only the top 10% or 20% can own their own home and afford all the good things the city has to offer without family wealth or speculative gains banked by playing hyper-financialization games.

  One driver of higher costs is cities are magnets for graft, corruption, insider deals and quasi-monopolies, as the aggregation of money and power make the rewards of insider self-service irresistible. All of these forms of skimming add cost without adding any value to residents or enterprises.

  Even worse, they erode competence and accountability, as the essence of insider self-service is the elimination of accountability so low-level corruption and incompetence cannot be reined in. Insiders have a free hand to exploit their access to the enormous flows of money and power that sluice through every major city.

  As T.D. explained, large-scale industry is the only force with sufficient heft to demand competence and accountability of city governments. The current batch of what passes for “industry”–tourism, hospitals, universities, museums, etc.–can’t threaten to leave, as their own existence depends on the city. None wield sufficient political power to clamp down on corruption and incompetence.

  As the energy, water, waste and transport infrastructure decays to the point of breakdown, industry would have stepped in and demanded managerial competence to get it fixed because industry needed those systems to survive. The complaints of highly segmented service industries don’t seem to wield the same power or urgency.

  As for finance, it’s already global, and it right-sizes its footprint to match the flows of capital sluicing through the city as well as its costs and amenities. If any of these factors goes the wrong way, finance will abandon the city in a New York Minute.

  In effect, globalization and financialization have hollowed out the traditional economic foundations of cities in favor of services and entertainment which are dependent on the speculative gains of financialization. Should the flood of wealth being generated by ceaseless hyper-financialization reach its zenith and crash, cities will lose their source of wealth and income even as their managerial competence has been eroded by the very success of financialization in generating staggering flows of money.

  Given an ever-expanding flood of money, competence and accountability can both be dispensed with. If the flow of money keeps expanding, simulacra of accountability and competence will do just fine.

  But when the flood of money dries up, and the city needs administrative competence and accountability to adapt, these have decayed to the point nobody in power has any experience of anything but an ever-expanding flood of money.

  In other words, the “efficiencies” of the city now depend on the permanent expansion of hyper-globalization and hyper-financialization, both of which are increasingly vulnerable to decay, downsizing or collapse.

  Any city whose lifeblood ultimately depends on hyper-globalization and hyper-financialization will no longer be viable. Non-viability of the globalized, financialized urban model is currently considered “impossible.” Let’s check in around 2030 and make an accounting of the second-order effects of the demise of globalization and financialization. One such effect might be a reversal of the human migration as people leave no-longer-viable urban zones en masse.

  *  *  *

  My new book is now available at a 10% discount this month: When You Can’t Go On: Burnout, Reckoning and Renewal. If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 09/06/2022 – 17:44

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• Saving America's Future
  Saving America’s Future

  Authored by Lawrence Kadish via The Gatestone Institute,

  Standing at a podium in Philadelphia, US President Joseph Biden recently sought to leverage the heritage of a city that gave birth to our American democracy while making such a fiercely partisan speech that its ultimate legacy may be to further divide a divided nation. Had he been more truthful about our nation’s current challenges, he might have stood inside a supermarket where prices for basic staples needed by working families are skyrocketing.

  

  He also could have chosen many of our New York neighborhoods where career criminals have essentially been presented with a “get out of jail” card by many in Biden’s political party.

  Then again, he could have stood next to a gasoline pump and acknowledged that his energy policies have returned us to an era of being energy dependent on foreign nations that are hostile to the very democracy he is sworn to protect.

  These realities reveal that America is at a dangerous tipping point, where the future of our nation is literally in question. One suspects no one in the White House is asking themselves how they can avoid previous leadership failures that allowed countries to go from global dominance to history’s dustbin. They need only look at the arc of time for nations such as Spain, the Netherlands and Britain to see how inept, incompetent or weak leadership led to their inevitable collapse as the dominant nation of their time. It is as if there is a house at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue with no one in it.

  The Chinese, however, are students of history. With an economy that reaches around the globe and a military now capable of patrolling the Pacific, it is apparent they are betting that America will fail its test of leadership and follow others in relinquishing its global dominance. In this case, China is ready to assume that role.

  The stark reality is that the current White House occupants have compounded error upon error. A speech long on partisan rhetoric but short on competence will not address the strategic errors in judgment being made by those who took a sacred oath of office to preserve, defend and protect our nation.

  There is still time to hand a new generation of Americans a strong nation capable of defending its values, its citizens and its future, but that will require us to recognize what other nations refused to acknowledge: that history’s tipping point is before us.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/05/2022 – 23:30

• Zero-COVID In China: Lockdowns Of Major Cities Continue
  Zero-COVID In China: Lockdowns Of Major Cities Continue

  After the controversial, two-months long coronavirus lockdown of Shanghai, China has once again placed a city of more than 20 million people under house arrest.

  As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz details below, a coronavirus lockdown in Chengdu in Central China that had started on Thursday was prolonged Monday.

  Mass tests are being carried out after the city saw 71 new Covid-19 cases on Sunday. While officials said the restrictions would continue until at least Wednesday, residents are uneasy due to similarities to the Shanghai lockdown, which was also announced in a piecemeal fashion. In April and May, almost 25 million people had been confined to their homes in Shanghai, with many suffering from inadequate food supply, lack of medical attention and psychological distress.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  In Southern tech hub Shenzhen, a weekend lockdown was lifted while restrictions in some parts of the city continue. The announcement had led to panic buying Friday in the city that had been under a full lockdown for a week in March already and now fears a second confinement could happen. Shenzhen saw 87 new virus cases Sunday. In March, it was the biggest city China had locked down to-date after a surge in coronavirus cases not seen since the first wave of infections in early 2020 emerged there. The Southern tech hub and special economic zone is only about one hour away from Hong Kong, which also saw a record-breaking Covid outbreak around that time.

  According to Our World in Data, China on Sunday recorded more than 3,000 new coronavirus cases. The highest-ever case count in the country occurred on April 14 of this year at around 29,500, almost double the 2020 high of 15,000 cases (February 13).

  After the major lockdowns of Wuhan and other cities in Hubei province ended in late March and early April of 2020, China had successfully followed a zero-Covid strategy for most of 2020 and 2021. Ever since the more contagious Omicron variant emerged, however, it has challenged China’s approach of zero tolerance towards the disease.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/05/2022 – 23:00

• In His First Trip Abroad Since The Start Of The Pandemic, China's Xi Will Visit Producer Of Half The World's Uranium
  In His First Trip Abroad Since The Start Of The Pandemic, China’s Xi Will Visit Producer Of Half The World’s Uranium

  In his first overseas trip since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit the country responsible for roughly half of the world’s uranium production.

  

  On September 14, Xi will visit Kazakhstan, the SCMP reported citing a Monday announcement at a briefing by the Kazakh foreign ministry. It follows months of speculation about the location of Xi’s first trip abroad since he went to Myanmar in January 2020. Beijing’s strict zero-Covid policy has curtailed travel inside and out of the country, and Xi and other senior figures have not left China since the start of the pandemic.

  Of the 25 Politburo members, only foreign policy chief Yang Jiechi has travelled abroad. Meanwhile, the country’s No 3 official, Li Zhanshu, will go to Russia on Wednesday in a sign that China’s top officials are resuming international travel. Li, head of the legislature, will also visit Mongolia, Nepal and South Korea.

  As reported previously, Indonesian President Joko Widodo has said Xi will visit Bali for the Group of 20 summit in November – where Vladimir Putin and Zelenskyy will also be present.

  Xi will meet Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev for talks the host government said were “aimed at further deepening the eternal comprehensive strategic partnership and developing political, trade, economic, cultural and humanitarian cooperation”.

  

  The visit could be followed by a trip to Uzbekistan to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, according to the SCO’s official Telegram channel. In a post on Sunday, the SCO said that “the leaders of all states confirmed their full-time participation in the summit” in Samarkand, to be held on September 15 and 16.

  More importantly, in Uzbekistan, Xi would be expected to meet Russian leader Vladimir Putin for the first time since the pair announced a “no limits” partnership on the eve of the Beijing Winter Olympics. Just three weeks later, Russian forces invaded Ukraine, leading to much speculation about how much Xi and other Chinese leaders knew about the operation in advance.

  The pair have been in telephone contact since – notably on Xi’s 69th birthday on June 15. At the time, Chinese state media quoted Xi as saying that “China is willing to continue to support the Russian side on issues related to core interests and major concerns such as sovereignty and security, to work closely on strategic cooperation between the two countries”.

  Russia is one of eight member states of the SCO, along with China, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. There are four observer states in the process of acceding to the forum – Afghanistan, Belarus, Iran and Mongolia – while Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cambodia, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Türkiye are dialogue partners.

  Temur Umarov, an expert on China and Central Asia at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that choosing the region as a first overseas trip emphasized Beijing’s ambitions to expand its influence there. Indeed, it is hardly a coincidence that China is heading to the one country responsible for nearly half of the world’s uranium production.

  A violent crackdown on civil unrest in Kazakhstan in January caught Beijing by surprise, Umarov said, with Russian troops being sent in to quell the protests. In total, there were more than 200 deaths, Human Rights Watch has said.

  “We should remember that at that time, China looked so weak in Central Asia and Russia was very active,” Umarov said. “It was a pivotal moment that made China realise that something should be done to expand their understanding of Central Asia, to extend China’s ability to forecast what was going on and what will be happening in Central Asia.”

  Separately, in July, after 20 years of negotiations, Beijing agreed with Bishkek and Tashkent to begin building the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway next year. It will give China another railway route into Central Asia in addition to existing links with Kazakhstan, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine appears to have given the project some impetus.

  Previous media reports had speculated that Xi’s first overseas visit would be to Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, the South China Morning Post reported in July that China had asked the leaders of some Western European countries to visit Beijing in November, taken by some as an indication that Xi would be confirmed for a third term as Communist Party chief at the national congress in October.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/05/2022 – 22:00

• Brazil's Democracy Under Threat: Supreme Court Blocks President's Social Media
  Brazil’s Democracy Under Threat: Supreme Court Blocks President’s Social Media

  Authored by Augusto Zimmermann via The Epoch Times,

  In Brazil, some judges have highly ambitious political goals and make decisions accordingly.

  The current presiding justice at the nation’s Supreme Electoral Court is Alexandre de Moraes. He was elected as the presiding electoral officer in August, in a public ceremony with 2,000 guests at the court auditorium. He was a member of the Brazilian Social Democratic Party before being nominated justice of the nation’s Federal Supreme Court on Feb. 22, 2017.

  Before being nominated to the nation’s highest court, as reported by the French daily Le Monde, he was at the centre of a controversy when the daily Estadão published an investigation showing that he had intervened as a lawyer in at least 123 legal cases to defend a corporation that some have argued is suspected of being linked to Brazil’s main drug trafficking group, the First Command of the Capital.

  Moraes, who is now the nation’s top electoral officer in Brazil and responsible for overseeing the presidential elections, has issued numerous “monocratic decisions” against “misinformation,” in addition to sending some of President Jair Bolsonaro’s friends and supporters to jail, confiscating their electronic devices, and freezing their bank accounts.

  On March 18, for example, Moraes ordered the nationwide suspension of the messaging app Telegram. The ruling came after Telegram ignored an earlier order to block the account of Allan dos Santos, a supporter of Bolsonaro accused of spreading “misinformation.” He had previously issued a warrant for the arrest of Santos in October.

  In his ruling suspending Telegram nationwide, Moraes mentions its failing to remove “misleading” content from Bolsonaro’s own Telegram page. As reported, not only did he order the shutdown of the message app nationwide but also ordered Apple and Google to introduce “technological obstacles” to block Telegram on their operating systems and withdraw it from their digital stores in Brazil.

  Bolsonaro, who seeks reelection in October, relies on Telegram to reach his voter base. He has more than a million followers on the platform and this could prove crucial to his electoral campaign.

  

  Brazilian Supreme Court judge Alexandre de Moraes is pictured during a session to rule on whether former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva should start a 12 year prison sentence for corruption, potentially upending this year’s presidential election, at the Supreme Court in Brasilia, Brazil, on April 4, 2018. (Victoria Silva/AFP via Getty Images)

  ‘Authoritarian Decisions’

  On March 19, during the popular television program “Os Pingos nos Is” from Jovem Pam, journalist Augusto Nunes accused Moraes of committing several illegalities, including the abuse of authority and the violation of a cláusula pétrea (“stone clause”) in the Brazilian Constitution that makes freedom of expression an inalienable right of the citizen.

  Nunes also criticized the silence of politicians about Moraes’s “decisions,” including the banning of Telegram nationwide.

  “It’s time to demand senators and judges handcuffed for their cowardice. And those appointed by President Jair Bolsonaro have to explain how long this cowardly silence they have maintained in the face of arrogance will last,” he said.

  On May 27, 2020, Justice Moraes, who had become the nation’s top electoral officer, ordered the federal police to launch an operation probing businessmen, bloggers, and politicians allied to Bolsonaro. In the decision that authorised the operation, he also determined the blocking of all their accounts on social media outlets such as Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram. According to him, the monocratic decision is necessary for the interruption of “misinformation” and “fake news.”

  The investigation on “misinformation” conducted by Moraes concerns more generally the dissemination of information regarding the transparency of electronic voting machines and the credibility of the Brazilian electoral commission, which is actually headed by Moraes himself.

  Filipe Martins, the special advisor to the presidency of the Republic for international affairs, commented that “journalists, humorists, and ordinary citizens who act spontaneously are being treated as bandits for daring to express opinions that displease the establishment.”

  …

  Bolsonaro says democracy is now under serious attack in the country. He has accused these unelected judges of practising political interference and trying to deploy a judicial dictatorship.

  “Brazil is on the road to dictatorship. This is how dictatorships start now. You lose your freedom little by little, then one day you look, and you are completely tied up,” he told network Jovem Pan.

  After knowing all these extraordinary things, who would disagree? The democratic system is clearly being undermined by the replacement of the rule of law with the rule of judges. In fact, the premise that unelected judges know better what is best for the nation is elitist and utterly undemocratic.

  It is ironic to see that now the major threat to democracy in Brazil now comes not from elected politicians but from a highly anachronistic judicial oligarchy.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/05/2022 – 21:30

• "Toxic" Dust Storm Hits Burning Man, Causing Total Whiteout
  “Toxic” Dust Storm Hits Burning Man, Causing Total Whiteout

  The final weekend of Burning Man nearly ended earlier as visibility deteriorated to zero during a massive dust storm. 

  On Saturday, Burning Man’s official Twitter account tweeted the gates into the festival in Nevada’s Black Rock Desert were closed “due to whiteout conditions.” Event staff requested festivalgoers: 

  “Do not drive. Vehicles are becoming stranded and lost on the playa.” 

  The #BRC Gate is currently closed in both directions (ingress and egress) due to whiteout conditions. Do not drive. Vehicles are becoming stranded and lost on the playa. Delay your departure until the weather has cleared.

  — Burning Man Project (@burningman) September 3, 2022

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  From a distance, the National Weather Service of Reno’s stationary cameras captured the moment when dust rolled across the festival area, severely impacting visibility for the tens of thousands of people. 

  View from the Fox Mountain @AlertWildfire camera looking at dust blowing off the Black Rock Desert. At this point, dust is not impacting any major roadways, but it certainly is affecting a certain temporary city. Winds to continue through sunset before becoming lighter overnight. pic.twitter.com/ApYjICHvTw

  — NWS Reno (@NWSReno) September 3, 2022

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  A passenger on a commercial flight captured a clearer view of the dust storm affecting the festival. 

  The Chronicle says Burning Man got hit by a huge dust storm. Here it is from the air around 2:45PM Pacific time (on a commercial flight). Picture quality is junk, but if you zoom in you can see the street outline pic.twitter.com/sV3WYni5Vj

  — Jonathan Claybaugh (@JonathanClayba1) September 4, 2022

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  The dust storm was so big that a weather satellite spotted it. 

  Dust storm kicking up on the #BlackRockDesert. Looks like a “fun” day at #BurningMan pic.twitter.com/1knjxxGqcD

  — Neil Lareau (@nplareau) September 3, 2022

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  On the ground, festivalgoers looked miserable on the last weekend of the nine-day event. The San Francisco Standard pointed out that the dust in the area is full of “alkaline” and is “quite toxic.” 

  

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Total whiteout in daytime at times with gusting winds, can’t even locate the sun, at Burning Man, @SaigonTheKomodo and @Nican shown between Fur Camp and Coyote Garden pic.twitter.com/iImr8Lbkzx

  — Spottacus (➡paw,mff) (@Spottacus) September 3, 2022

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  30mph winds are tearing apart our camp, and there’s fuck all we can do about it. Grey Skies (our big shelter) has lost half of her grommets already, just gotta ride it out and hunker down.

  Burning man sucks, don’t come 🤗 pic.twitter.com/U8pVc78ke7

  — Maly ❤️‍🔥 Burning Man (@malytwotails) September 3, 2022

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  San Francisco Chronicle said the dust storm nearly “ruined the annual torching of a giant wooden effigy.” But by late Saturday evening, the gates reopened, and around 2200 local time, the statue went up in flames. 

  

  Toxic dust wasn’t the only thing festivalgoers had to worry about — daytime highs hit triple digits, sending some people home early.  

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/05/2022 – 21:00

• Deadly Earthquake Hits China's Southwestern Sichuan Province
  Deadly Earthquake Hits China’s Southwestern Sichuan Province

  A powerful earthquake rocked a mountainous region of China’s southwestern Sichuan province on Monday. At least 46 people are dead, in the latest problems mounting for the province hit by historic drought and Covid lockdowns. 

  The 6.8 magnitude earthquake hit Luding county in western Sichuan, about 120 miles west of the provincial capital of Chengdu, reported China Earthquake Administration. 

  

  Videos posted on social media showed damaged building structures and landslides.

  An earthquake of magnitude 6.8 struck the Sichuan Province of China this afternoon. The epicenter of the quake is located at a town of Luding at a depth of 16 km.
  Seven people have lost their lives so far. Further reports of the damages are are awaited. pic.twitter.com/lQMm0R0eVK

  — Dil Bahadur Pakwal (@dil_pakwal) September 5, 2022

  September 5, 2022CGTN Chinese President #XiJinping has stressed that saving people’s lives should be the top priority for disaster relief work in the quake-hit areas in Sichuan Province. #China President Xi stresses saving lives as top priority for quake relief in #Sichuan #World pic.twitter.com/9anbTO1eYU

  — long chen 陈 龙🐲🇨🇳🐲 (@HongLong_Chen) September 5, 2022

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  BREAKING 🇨🇳 : A 6.8-magnitude earthquake jolted #Luding County, southwest China’s Sichuan Province Monday.
  ♦️The tremor was felt in Chengdu, the capital of #Sichuan.
  #China #EarthQuake pic.twitter.com/UsYxM4CyEw

  — Zaid Ahmd  (@realzaidzayn) September 5, 2022

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  🇨🇳CHINA

  🚨Preliminar. #Sismo de magnitud 6.6 en 🇨🇳#China. Se localiza en Western #Sichuan y tuvo una profundidad de 10 kilómetros. Hay altas probabilidades de daños y víctimas pic.twitter.com/GX8IMJBj0I

  — Noticias 507 y El Mundo (@agrimensuraferg) September 5, 2022

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  Various types of infrastructure, such as roads and power lines, also appear to be damaged. 

  

  At least 6.8 magnitude #earthquake on the Richter scale jolts China’s southwestern Sichuan province. The epicenter of this catastrophe is about 43 kilometers (27 miles) southeast of Kangding city. #BreakingNews #China #Sichuan pic.twitter.com/p9aWgWmVma

  — TheBlogger (@Thebloggerinfo) September 5, 2022

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  A 6.8-magnitude #earthquake jolted #Luding county in Ganzi Tibetan autonomous prefecture in #Sichuan province at 12:52 pm on Monday. A total of 21 people were killed and 30 were injured. pic.twitter.com/O5Cer0Fd9f

  — BeijingNews 新京报 (@BJNewsWorld) September 5, 2022

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  At least 46 people killed after strong earthquake hits China’s Sichuan province – Xinhua pic.twitter.com/0ij0qySBd0

  — BNO News (@BNONews) September 5, 2022

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  Tremors were felt in Chengdu, a megacity with 21 million people currently under Covid lockdown. Besides lockdowns, the metro area has already faced power rationings due to drought and heatwaves this summer. 

  A question we have: When an earthquake strikes, can those under mandatory Covid lockdown exit their homes or condos to avoid danger?

  Sichuan is located on a major fault and is considered one of the country’s most highly active quake areas. In 2008, Chengdu was hit by a devastating 8.2 magnitude quake, leaving more than 69,000 dead. 

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/05/2022 – 20:00

• Retired US General Tells Ukraine "Better To Negotiate Now Than Later"
  Retired US General Tells Ukraine “Better To Negotiate Now Than Later”

  A retired Pentagon general has issued a rare call for Ukraine to immediately enter negotiations with Russia toward finding a peaceful solution to the now six-month long war. This comes after weeks of reports of a ‘stalemated’ battlefield along eastern and southern lines, and amid Western leaders increasingly acknowledging “uncomfortably low” and depleted weapons stockpiles.

  Army brigadier general Mark T. Kimmitt, who had served as Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs under the George W. Bush administration, warned in a Wall Street Journal op-ed days ago that the current policy of ramping up weapons systems to Kyiv is only likely to lead to more casualties.

  He wrote in the Thursday article that “older and less advanced” systems which are increasingly making up the bulk of what’s now being supplied “may indicate that battlefield consumption rates have outpaced production to a point where excess inventories provided to Ukraine are nearly exhausted.”

  

  Kimmitt argued that the “dwindling stocks of leading-edge weapon systems” in NATO countries will inevitably lead to a prolonged conflict, and a longer war will in turn result in “more pressure from supporting nations, sustained inflation, less heating gas, and falling popular support.” He concluded:

  “This likely will mean muddling through a long war, with more casualties.”

  Outlining the “logistic peril” of getting NATO weapons to the Ukrainians, the retired general explored three options which involve varying means of keeping the weapons flowing and thus digging deeper into NATO stockpiles, but which will also ensure escalation – even including supplying Kyiv with longer range missiles.

  But Kimmitt then offers a final available option, which he admits no one including the Zelensky government itself seems willing to take seriously (given also the Ukrainian president has recently been vowing the “liberation” of Crimea). This last option – the path of serious negotiations – would involve Ukraine pushing for “an interim diplomatic resolution without (or with) territorial concessions.”

  “There is little incentive to negotiate” at the moment, Kimmitt acknowledges, but Zelensky “must recognize that diminishing resupplies would have a disastrous effect on his army, not merely for battlefield operations but for the message of declining outside support it would send to the people of Ukraine.”

  “Beginning the diplomatic resolution would be distasteful, and perhaps seen as defeatist, but as there is little chance of climbing out of the current morass, it may be better to negotiate now than later.”

  Such realism appearing in a mainstream outlet when it comes to the Ukraine debate is a rarity, but as Russia and the West continue their game of chicken over Ukraine, now clearly a full-blown proxy war, likely more such urgings for negotiated settlement will appear in public discourse.

  * * *

  Meanwhile, Russia too is putting Europe on notice regarding energy sanctions, as indeed both sides continue digging their heels in deeper…

  “Winter will be big – only dusk and snow”

  A propos of absolutely nothing, Gazprom releases an eerie two-minute video showing how a cold winter will freeze Europe to death pic.twitter.com/3KSmbhWe59

  — Max Fras (@maxfras) September 5, 2022

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  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/05/2022 – 19:00

• Who Benefits From US Government Claims That The UFO Threat Is Increasing "Exponentially"?
  Who Benefits From US Government Claims That The UFO Threat Is Increasing “Exponentially”?

  Authored by Caitlin Johnstone via Medium.com,

  A US senate report which is an addendum to the Intelligence Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2023 has people talking due to the surprising statements it includes about the US government’s current position on UFOs.

  I mean Unidentified Aerial Phenomena.

  I mean Unidentified Aerospace-Undersea Phenomena.

  This latest moniker for the thing we all still think of as UFOs is the US government’s way of addressing how these alleged appearances, which began entering mainstream attention in 2017, are said to be able to transition seamlessly from traveling through the air to moving underwater in what’s been labeled “cross-domain transmedium” movement. Because branches of the US war machine are roughly broken up into forces specializing in air, sea, land and space operations, the notion that these things move between those domains gets special attention.

  UFO enthusiasts are largely focusing on a part of the addendum which oddly stipulates that the government’s newly named Unidentified Aerospace-Undersea Phenomena Joint Program Office shall not be looking into objects “that are positively identified as man-made,” because of the obvious implications of that phrase. This is understandable; if you’ve got a government office that’s responsible for investigating unidentified phenomena, you can just say it won’t be looking into phenomena that are “positively identified”. You wouldn’t have to add “identified as man-made” unless you had a specific reason for doing so.

  After years of revelations about strange lights in the sky, first hand reports from Navy pilots about UFOs, and governmental investigations, Congress seems to have admitted something startling in print: it doesn’t believe all UFOs are “man-made.” https://t.co/LrNgDc3auH

  — VICE News (@VICENews) August 23, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  But for me the claim that really jumps off the page, authored by Senate Select Committee on Intelligence Chairman Mark Warner, is the claim that these unidentified aerospace-undersea phenomena are a “threat” that is increasing “exponentially”.

  “At a time when cross-domain transmedium threats to United States national security are expanding exponentially, the Committee is disappointed with the slow pace of DoD-led efforts to establish the office to address those threats,” Warner writes in the report.

  “Exponentially” is a mighty strong word. Taken in its least literal sense, it means that threats to US national security from UFOs are increasing at an alarmingly rapid rate. That they have swiftly become much greater than they used to be.

  What is the basis for this incendiary claim? What information are US lawmakers being given to make them draw such conclusions and make such assertions? There’s a long chain of information handling between an alleged UFO encounter and a US senator’s pen, and corruption can occur at any point in that chain (including the first and last link).

  I remain comfortably agnostic about most aspects of the UFO question, up to and including the possibility that there are actual extraterrestrial or extradimensional beings zipping around our planet in technology our science cannot comprehend. But one thing I absolutely will take a hard and fast position on is that the moment the US government starts labeling something a “threat”, all trust and credulity must be immediately be thrown out the window.

  #1 most read on our #Bestof2014 list: Reports of unusual activity in the skies in the ’50s? It was us.http://t.co/BKr81M5OUN (PDF 9.26MB)

  — CIA (@CIA) December 29, 2014

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  This is after all occurring as the US enters a steadily escalating new cold war against both Russia and China, and we know that during the last cold war the CIA sought to exploit public panic about UFOs as a psychological weapon against the Soviets, and that the CIA has claimed that its newly developed spy planes were responsible for many UFO sightings in the 1950s, and that the US military was working on developing “flying saucer” aircraft during that same time. It also occurs after the assistant secretary of the Air Force for acquisition, technology and logistics stated at a 2020 conference that the Air Force has a brand new aircraft prototype, designed using new digital engineering technology, that has “broken a lot of records.”

  This new mainstream UFO narrative also has highly suspicious origins, with key players ranging from shady US intelligence cartel operatives like Lue Elizondo and Christopher Mellon, to corrupt senator Harry Reid and his plutocratic campaign donor Robert Bigelow, to Blink-182’s Tom DeLonge, who believes humanity is being tormented by malevolent extraterrestrials who feed off negative human emotions and that the US military is heroically protecting us from their evil agendas. Filmmaker Steven Greenstreet put out a short, well-sourced documentary with The New York Post this past May laying out copious amounts of evidence that the groundwork for the new UFO narrative was built on journalistic malpractice and negligence, obfuscation, omission, and outright lies. The footage we’re being shown of these supposed vehicles to justify this new narrative consist of blurs, flashes and smudges which can all be explained by mundane phenomena.

  So in my opinion this isn’t a subject we can just ignore, as weird and uncomfortable as the subject of UFOs might be for serious analysts. Whatever the subject, when you’ve got the US government claiming on highly suspect grounds that there’s an exponentially growing threat that urgently needs to be addressed militarily, it’s time to sit up and start paying attention.

  Not that I myself have any clear idea of what’s going on here beyond the distinct impression that we are being deceived about something potentially very important. And I don’t get the impression that other people have a very clear picture of what’s going on either.

  Some say this is just a scam to get more funding for the Space Force or the military in general. That could very well be, but as far as publicly available information goes we’re not seeing anyone saying anything like “Hey we need $40 billion to address this UFO problem.”

  Some say this is part of an agenda to justify getting weapons into space, but I suspect anyone likely to support that agenda would support it with or without the claim that we need to fight ET. And again, there’s the problem that nobody’s saying “Hey we need to get weapons into space because of UFOs.”

  Some say this is just a deliberate “distraction” designed to keep people from focusing on more important issues, but the problem there is that (A) the empire doesn’t normally roll out distractions in that way, and (B) the UFO issue isn’t getting much mainstream attention. It’s a peripheral story, dwarfed in comparison to real propaganda initiatives like Ukraine.

  Some say there’s a conspiracy to use high-tech weaponry to create a false flag alien invasion and unite humanity under a one world government, but that’s a fairly mainstream idea that’s being pushed on viral Netflix films by known fraud Steven Greer. I think the world is paranoid enough at this point that few would buy such a psyop even if it were somehow convincingly orchestrated.

  Some say this narrative is all a cover for new technology the empire is keeping under wraps, presenting an official position that the US government has nothing to do with the strange vehicles people are seeing in the air as stated in the ODNI’s report on UFOs last year. That would certainly explain the empire’s cockiness in confronting Russia and China simultaneously when public knowledge of its economic and military capabilities would indicate that that’s a bad idea.

  It could be as simple as the fact that once it becomes the established orthodoxy in Washington that UFOs are a threat and something needs to be done about them, it’s a safe bet that we’re going to see massive amounts of money moving around to deal with that threat and the emergence of war machinery that can be used in future confrontations with Russia and China. There are any number of creatures lurking in DC who would stand to benefit from that happening, and would stand to benefit from pushing that agenda. It’s possible that contracts have already been signed. It’s possible that finances have already been allocated for it from the war machine’s dark money slush fund, and that all this public talk is just narrative management to preemptively justify that spending when information about it comes out.

  Or maybe it’s some mixture of these things, or none of them. I don’t know. I do know that someone’s benefitting from all this. And I know it’s unreasonable to expect the most murderous and tyrannical regime on earth to tell us the truth about UFOs when it would stand nothing to gain by doing so, and we ordinary people should therefore do our best to understand what’s happening for ourselves.

  I think it would be good if people on the anti-empire fringes of the spectrum started looking at this thing more and describing what they’re seeing, even though it’s impossible to see everything behind the walls of government opacity. Otherwise the only people looking at it will be UFO enthusiasts who just want “disclosure” at any cost, and the operatives of the empire itself.

  *  *  *

  My work is entirely reader-supported, so if you enjoyed this piece please consider sharing it around, following me on Facebook, Twitter, Soundcloud or YouTube, buying an issue of my monthly zine, or throwing some money into my tip jar on Ko-fi, Patreon or Paypal. If you want to read more you can buy my books. The best way to make sure you see the stuff I publish is to subscribe to the mailing list for at my website or on Substack, which will get you an email notification for everything I publish. Everyone, racist platforms excluded, has my permission to republish, use or translate any part of this work (or anything else I’ve written) in any way they like free of charge. For more info on who I am, where I stand, and what I’m trying to do with this platform, click here. All works co-authored with my American husband Tim Foley.

  Bitcoin donations:1Ac7PCQXoQoLA9Sh8fhAgiU3PHA2EX5Zm2

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/05/2022 – 18:30

• Suspect At Center Of Russiagate Hoax Wants Charges Thrown Out
  Suspect At Center Of Russiagate Hoax Wants Charges Thrown Out

  The primary source of Hillary Clinton’s hoax dossier used to paint Donald Trump as a Russian stooge wants a federal judge to dismiss charges filed against him for allegedly lying to federal agents about where he obtained salacious claims he fed the dossier’s author, Christopher Steele.

  

  Russian national Igor Danchenko says that the five false statement charges against him were improperly filed because the statements he made were “literally true.”

  According to the indictment, Danchenko lied about his contacts with “Russians,” his travels to Russia, and the identity of his sources. (Those are just some of the lies.)

  According to charging documents, Danchenko denied ever having communicated with longtime Clinton associate, Charles Dolan – a US-based PR expert.

  In John Durham’s words (via Techno Fog):

  

  More via the Epoch Times:

  Danchenko also lied, according to the documents, about believing that a phone call he received came from a businessman Sergei Millian described in court papers as Chamber President-1 and that the person on the other end told him certain information, and that he arranged to meet the person in New York.

  “In truth and fact … DANCHENKO never received such a phone call or such information from any person he believed to be Chamber-President 1, and DANCEHNKO [sic] never made any arrangements to meet with Chamber President-1 in New York,” the indictment states. “Rather, DANCHENKO fabricated these facts regarding Chamber President-1.”

  ‘Ambiguous Answers’

  In the new filing, Danchenko says that his answers did not violate the law, which prohibits making “materially false, fictitious, or fraudulent statement or representation” to federal agents or in federal court.

  “The law criminalizes only unambiguously false statements that are material to a specific decision of the government. By contrast, literally true or ambiguous statements, even if they are unresponsive or misleading, or false statements about ancillary matters, do not give rise to criminal liability,” Danchenko said through his counsel.

  Danchenko sat through numerous interviews with the FBI in 2017, according to the filing. During the interviews, Danchenko did say he didn’t talk to Dolan about specific allegations in the dossier, and that he believed he received a call from Millian, but those were “equivocal and ambiguous answers … prompted by fundamentally ambiguous questions,” the defendant said, asserting the statements “are literally true, and are immaterial as a matter of law.”

  The lawyers noted that Danchenko was not among those charged by former special counsel Robert Mueller’s team with making false statements.

  The charges against him came from special counsel John Durham’s team.

  Neither prosecutors nor the judge overseeing the case, U.S. District Judge Anthony Trenga, a George W. Bush appointee, have responded to Danchenko’s filing.

  Danchenko is scheduled to go on trial on Oct. 11.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/05/2022 – 18:05

• Russia To Legalize Use Of Cryptocurrency In International Trade: Report
  Russia To Legalize Use Of Cryptocurrency In International Trade: Report

  Authored by ‘NAMCIOS’ via BitcoinMagazine.com,

  • Russia is close to pushing legislation for the use of cryptocurrency in international trade.

  • In current conditions “it is impossible to do without cross-border settlements in cryptocurrency,” the Bank of Russia and Ministry of Finance have reportedly agreed.

  • The necessary regulatory framework will still need to be introduced.

  The Bank of Russia and the country’s Ministry of Finance have reconsidered their positions toward cryptocurrency, acknowledging it to be necessary to legalize the use of cryptocurrencies in cross-border settlements, per a report by local news outlet TASS.

  

  According to TASS, the two government bodies have agreed that “it is impossible” to continue without enabling cryptocurrency as a legal payment method for international trade.

  The move comes as Russia dabbles on how to best regulate the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets. Swamped in Western sanctions, the world’s largest country has sought alternatives to the U.S. dollar so as to guarantee the efficient trade of its commodities.

  In March, the chairman of the country’s Congressional energy committee, Pavel Zavalny, said the country was open to taking payments for natural gas and other natural resources exports in bitcoin.

  “When it comes to our ‘friendly’ countries, like China or Turkey, which don’t pressure us, then we have been offering them for a while to switch payments to national currencies, like rubles and yuan,” Zavalny said at the time.

  “With Turkey, it can be lira and rubles. So there can be a variety of currencies, and that’s a standard practice. If they want bitcoin, we will trade in bitcoin.”

  In May, it was reported that Russia was “actively discussing” using cryptocurrency in international trade.

  Now, the imminent actualization of such a move shifts the tide as President Vladimir Putin last year had dismissed the possibility in an interview at the Russian Energy Week event in Moscow.

  “I believe that it has value,” Putin said at the time, referring to bitcoin.

  “But I don’t believe it can be used in the oil trade.”

  According to TASS, the necessary regulatory framework to enable cross-border settlements in cryptocurrency in Russia will still be introduced.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/05/2022 – 17:40

• California Declares Grid Emergency (For 5th Straight Day) As Blackout Risks Surge
  California Declares Grid Emergency (For 5th Straight Day) As Blackout Risks Surge

  For the 5th straight day, California Independent System Operator (California ISO) declared a grid emergency Monday afternoon. The grid operator forecasts record high demand on Tuesday, with the possibility of ‘rotating outages’ as early as today. A menacing statewide heatwave has sparked huge demand for electricity while generating capacity remains subdued. 

  *CALIFORNIA GRID CEO SAYS ROTATING OUTAGES ‘POSSIBLE’ MONDAY

  And California didn’t even get disconnected from Russia

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 5, 2022

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  The historic heat bearing down on California will push the state’s electricity system to its limit. Millions of homes and businesses are cranking air condition use to the max, contributing to what could be record high electricity demand tomorrow. 

  *CALIFORNIA ISO SEES ALL-TIME RECORD DEMAND ON TUESDAY

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 5, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The grid operator is preparing for electricity demand to hit 48.9 GW on Monday, the most since 2017, with a record high expected on Tuesday. 

  Notably, despite 5 days of warnings, the virtuous Californians are using more electricity today than at any time during the week…

  

  Bob Oravec, a senior branch forecaster with the US Weather Prediction Center, told Bloomberg many areas in the state would register in triple-digit territory early this week. 

  Much of California is under an excessive heat warning for the next four days. Sacramento could reach 113 on Monday and 115 on Tuesday shattering records for those days, Oravec said. Downtown Los Angeles reached 103 on Sunday, which was the first time the temperature broke 100 this year. – Bloomberg 

  

  Daily high temps across the state should peak by mid-week. 

  

  Power prices in the southern part of the state jumped above $200 per megawatt hour. 

  

  California ISO warned that ‘rotating outages’ are possible Monday, adding customers need to reduce energy consumption even more, to keep the lights on.

  *CALIFORNIA NEEDS 2X TO 3X MORE CONSERVATION TO KEEP LIGHTS ON

  Why is nobody volunteering to turn off all their appliances?

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 5, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  State officials continue to ask residents not to charge EVs to help with grid stability. 

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/05/2022 – 17:15

• Here Comes Part Two Of Morgan Stanley's "Fire and Ice"
  Here Comes Part Two Of Morgan Stanley’s “Fire and Ice”

  From Michael Wilson, Morgan Stanley chief US strategist

  Fire and Ice Part Deux

  At the risk of stating the obvious, 2022 has been a challenging year for stock investors of all stripes. The Russell 3000 is down approximately 16% (total return) year to date (YTD), and while Russell 3000 Growth has underperformed significantly (-22%), it’s been no picnic for value investors either (-9%). Only Energy and Utilities are up, and just 24% of all stocks in the Russell 3000 are in positive territory for the year. To put that into context, in 2008 48% of Russell 3000 stocks were up on the year as we entered the month of September. Suffice it to say, this year has been historically bad for stocks, but that is not a sufficient reason to be bullish.

  As bad as it’s been for stocks, it’s been even worse for bonds on a risk-adjusted basis. More specifically, 20-year Treasury bonds are down 24% YTD and the Barclays AGG index is off by 11%. Finally, commodities have been a mixed bag too, with most commodities down on the year despite heightened inflationary concerns. To wit, the CRB RIND index, which measures the spot prices of a wide range of commodities, is down 7% YTD. Cash, on the other hand, is no longer trash, especially if one has been able to take advantage of higher front-end rates.

  So, what’s going on? In our view, asset markets are behaving right in line with the fire and ice narrative we laid out a year ago. In short, after ignoring the warning signs from inflation last year, and thinking the Fed would ignore them forever, asset markets quickly woke up and discounted the Fed’s late but historically hawkish pivot to address it. Indeed, very rarely has the Fed tightened policy so quickly. Truth be told, as one of the more hawkish strategists on the Street last December, I never would have bet the Fed would be doing multiple 75bp hikes this year, but here we are. Don’t fight the Fed.

  While the June low for stocks and bonds was dramatic, we’ve consistently been in the camp that it wasn’t THE low for the S&P 500 in this bear market. Having said that, we are more confident it was the low for long-term Treasuries in view of the Fed’s aggressive action that has yet to fully play out in the real economy. It may also have been the low for the average stock, given how bad the breadth was at that time and the magnitude of the decline in certain stocks. Our more pessimistic view on the major index is based on analysis that indicates all of the 31% de-rating in the forward S&P 500 P/E that occurred from December to June was due to higher rates. We know this because the equity risk premium (ERP) was flat during this period. Meanwhile, forward NTM EPS estimates for the S&P 500 have come down by only 1.5% and P/Es are now 9% higher. With rates about 25bp below the June highs, the ERP has fallen once again, to just 280bp. This makes little sense in a normal environment but especially given the significant slowdown and earnings cuts we think are still to come.

  With the Fed emphatically dashing hopes for a dovish pivot, we think that asset markets may be entering fire and ice part deux.

  In contrast with part one, this time the decline in stocks will come mostly via a higher ERP and lower earnings rather than higher rates. Our leading earnings models are all flashing red for the S&P 500, and we have high confidence that the decline in NTM S&P 500 EPS forecasts is far from over.

  

  In short, part deux will be more icy than fiery, the opposite of 1H22. That’s not to say rates don’t matter – they do – and we expect bonds to perform better than stocks in this icier scenario.

  If Friday marked a short-term low for long-duration bonds (high in yields), the S&P 500 and many stocks could get some relief again as rates come down prior to the next round of earnings cuts. However, make no mistake, as the weather turns chilly this fall, so will growth, which will weigh mightily on stocks given the paltry ERP investors are getting paid to take this risk.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/05/2022 – 16:50

• Ukraine's Largest Nuclear Power Plant Is Again Knocked Off Electrical Grid
  Ukraine’s Largest Nuclear Power Plant Is Again Knocked Off Electrical Grid

  For only the second time in its history, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine – which is Europe’s largest – has been fully cut off from the electrical grid, reportedly due to shelling. The past days have seen the plant repeatedly suffered complete disconnection from the power grid, with the plant’s back-up safety systems being activated.

  “Ukraine’s embattled Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant’s last working reactor has been switched off from the grid after the facility was disconnected from its last remaining power line due to shelling, Ukraine’s power plants operator said Monday,” AFP writes.

  

  The shutdown was once again reported to be due to shelling, based on a fresh statement from Ukraine’s nuclear power operator Energoatom. “Power unit (reactor) No. 6 was shut down and disconnected from the grid” after a fire ignited that was “triggered because of shelling”.

  Throughout the summer both sides have consistently accused the other of shelling and damaging the facility, after some 500 Russian troops began occupying it in March.

  Just days ago, a UN-authorized visit by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) found that the nuclear plant is at risk given that the “physical integrity of the plant has been violated, several times,” according to a Friday press briefing given by Director-General Rafael Grossi, who led the team in person.

  Grossi underscored that “The military activity and operations are increasing in that part of the country, and this worries me a lot.” At least two IAEA exports have stayed at the embattled nuclear plant on a “permanent basis” in order to monitor safety.

  The primarily Ukrainian engineers which run the plant have maintained operations under the watch of the Russian troop presence. Zaporizhzhia supplies some 30% of Ukraine’s electrical needs.

  ⚡️Energoatom: Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant’s last operating reactor disconnected from grid.

  Ukraine’s state nuclear operator Energoatom said that the last working power line at the Russian-occupied plant was disconnected as a result of a fire caused by Russian shelling on Sept. 5.

  — The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) September 5, 2022

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  Meanwihle, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a Sunday interview with ABC News that Russia with using the site as a “nuclear weapon”… 

  Russia’s military presence at the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant, Zelensky said, is tantamount to Russia occupying “six Chernobyls,” referring to the site of a 1986 nuclear meltdown in Ukraine under the former Soviet Union.

  “You see, they occupied our nuclear station, six blocks. The biggest in Europe,” Zelensky told ABC “World News Tonight” anchor David Muir in an interview excerpt shared Sunday.

  He then underscored: “It means the biggest danger in Europe. So, they occupied it. So that is — means that they use nuclear weapon. That is [a] nuclear weapon.”

  The Kremlin has claimed late last week a group of Ukrainian commandos tried to storm the plant from the river, but that the assault was repelled. The Russian side has also alleged Ukraine is attempting a ‘false flag’ operation at the plant in order to frame Moscow for some kind of disaster.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/05/2022 – 16:25

• Big Labor Traps Workers in Unions They Oppose
  Big Labor Traps Workers in Unions They Oppose

  Authored by Mark Mix, op-ed via NewsWeek.com,

  This Labor Day, you may see headlines about a supposed “boom” in union organizing, and while high-profile union campaigns against well-known companies like Starbucks and Amazon have generated buzz, Department of Labor numbers showed unions lost 241,000 members last year.

  Less likely to make headlines is a trend Big Labor’s cheerleaders wish to ignore: the significant increase in efforts by workers seeking to remove long-entrenched unions from their workplaces.

  Employees across the country have submitted a wave of petitions to the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB), asking the federal agency to schedule votes to remove unpopular unions, a process known as “decertification.”

  In fact, according to the NLRB’s own data on petitions for elections to either install or remove a union, a unionized private-sector worker is more than twice as likely to be involved in a decertification effort as a similar nonunion worker is to be involved in efforts to unionize his or her employer.

  Another recent analysis found decertification petitions to the NLRB have increased by a whopping 42 percent this year. That’s 16 percent higher than the increase in petitions seeking to bring in a union (when counting the Starbucks campaign once, rather than tallying each individual location’s petition).

  When you consider that NLRB policies make it impossible for most workers to hold a decertification effort outside a brief 30-day window once every three years, the jump in decertification efforts looks even starker. There is no similar limitation on when petitions can be filed to trigger unionization votes.

  What we’ve seen here at the National Right to Work Legal Defense Foundation, which provides free legal aid to workers, confirms this trend. Foundation staff attorneys have received a record number of requests for legal assistance over the last couple of years from workers seeking help to navigate the NLRB’s maze-like decertification process.

  While you may not have heard about the wave of workers seeking to free themselves of unwanted unions, you can be sure Big Labor and its political allies know exactly what’s going on.

  

  NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JULY 20: Employees of HarperCollins Publisher participate in a one-day strike outside the publishing houses offices in Manhattan on July 20, 2022 in New York City. The strikers, who work in a variety of departments at the company, have been bargaining for a union contract since December 2021. Salary, a commitment to diversity and union security rights are some of the demands the workers have presented to the company. The union, Local 2110 of the UAW, represents more than 250 HarperCollins employees in the design, editorial legal, marketing, publicity, and sales departments.SPENCER PLATT/GETTY IMAGES

  You see, rather than ask why so many workers want to escape union ranks, union bosses and their Biden administration allies are pulling out all the stops to make it even more difficult for hard-working Americans to participate in a decertification election.

  The Biden-backed PRO Act – Big Labor’s top legislative priority – is a laundry list of new power grabs for union organizers. It would wipe out all 27 Right to Work laws that make union dues voluntary.

  Other PRO Act provisions, like mandating “Card Check” recognition that bypasses secret-ballot votes for unionization, and permitting unionization to be forced on gig economy workers, have also made headlines. Yet the bill also includes new statutory prohibitions on decertification elections, including giving union officials the ability to automatically delay any decertification vote through unproven allegations called “blocking charges.”

  But with the PRO Act stalled in the Senate, the Biden NLRB isn’t waiting on Congress to stifle decertification efforts.

  Biden-appointed union activists at the NLRB are seeking to squelch decertification efforts through bureaucratic fiat. This includes reversing the Election Protection Rule, a set of common-sense, if modest, reforms previously adopted by the NLRB that removed multiple Board-invented barriers to worker-backed decertification. One of those reforms that the Biden Board seeks to reverse allowed workers to challenge a union’s installation through Card Check with a private, secret-ballot vote.

  Meanwhile, the former union lawyer who was appointed top prosecutor at the Labor Board has said she intends to overturn the Foundation-won Johnson Controls precedent, which allowed employers to act on workers’ majority petitions and end the union’s “representation” through withdrawal of recognition. Johnson Controls also allowed union officials to seek an automatic secret-ballot vote to try to counter such withdrawal petitions, but few unions have opted for that because they fear private, secret-ballot elections.

  The fact that the NLRB is helping Big Labor strong-arm workers into joining union ranks, and going to such lengths to block workers from escaping, shows just how out of touch the NLRB is in protecting the rights of workers—one of which is the statutory right to decertify.

  Instead of improving the service they provide to attract more workers to voluntarily join union ranks, union bosses are simply doubling down on exercising their coercive government-granted powers to get workers under their control.

  In the short term, rigging the rules might help keep forced union dues flowing, but over the long run it will only further alienate union bosses from the workers they claim to represent. This is not a prescription for satisfied workers on Labor Day.

  *  *  *

  Mark Mix is president of the National Right to Work Committee.

  NEWSWEEK NEWSLETTER SIGN-UP >

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/05/2022 – 16:00

• Suicide Blast At Russian Embassy In Kabul Kills 2 Diplomats
  Suicide Blast At Russian Embassy In Kabul Kills 2 Diplomats

  On Monday an unknown militant targeted Russia’s embassy in the Afghan capital of Kabul in a suicide attack, with the Russian Foreign Ministry subsequently confirming two diplomats were killed and multiple people wounded. 

  “At 10:50 am Kabul time on Sept. 5, an unidentified militant set off an explosive device in the immediate vicinity of the entrance to the consular section of the Russian embassy in Kabul,” an official ministry statement said.

  

  “As a result of the attack, two employees of the diplomatic mission were killed, and there are also Afghan citizens among the wounded.”

  Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov condemned the “terrorist act” – which coincidentally came on the heels of the first anniversary of the Taliban takeover of Kabul, and of the deadly events surrounding America’s hasty August 2021 final exit from the country.

  A statement from the Afghan Taliban’s interior ministry suggested the suicide blast and casualties could have been much worse as the bomber may not have fully reached his intended target:

  “It was a suicide attack, but before the bomber could reach his target, he was targeted by our forces and eliminated,” Afghan Interior Ministry spokesman Abdul Nafy Takor told AFP.

  Asked whether the target was the Russian embassy, Takor said: “Yes.” An Afghan civilian was killed and several others wounded in the attack, he said.

  The attack may have also been targeting Afghan civilians applying for a Russian visa. “The blast went off at the entrance to the embassy’s consular section, where Afghans were waiting for news about their visas, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry and the state news agency RIA Novosti,” The Washington Post details.

  “A Russian diplomat had emerged from the building to call out the names of candidates for visas when the explosion occurred, the agency said,” according to the report.

  #Breaking Aftermath of a reportedly suicide attack at the door of Russian embassy in Darul Aman #Kabul, #Afghanistan that killed at least 3 people and injured dozens today at 10:51 am.

  There is not even a day without explosion💥 in Afghanistan. pic.twitter.com/JTRXz63shS

  — Aisha Ahmad (@AishaTaIks) September 5, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  While these kinds of bombings against foreign embassies and international institutions have become more rare since the Taliban takeover (given that in prior years it was often Taliban militants themselves conducting attacks against foreign targets, and many countries have also shuttered their consuls), the anti-Taliban ISIS-K group has remained active in conducting suicide bombings. And at times, rival Talban factions particularly in the south of the country and along the Pakistan border have clashed.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/05/2022 – 15:35

• "The EU Makes Its Peace With Economic War… And The Global Neoliberal System Is Collapsing Around Us"
  “The EU Makes Its Peace With Economic War… And The Global Neoliberal System Is Collapsing Around Us”

  By Michael Every of Rabobank

  No role for payrolls, or G7 oil-price caps

  For those paying not attention to war or peace, US payrolls coming in largely in line with consensus didn’t move markets much on Friday. Weak factory orders that followed did: but markets would have seized on shoelace futures for any excuse to tell themselves the Fed is going to back off on rate hikes – when it isn’t.

  Then the G7 announced the imposition of an as-yet unspecified December price cap on Russia’s oil exports –and Russia turned off Nord Stream 1 gas flows– and markets tumbled. Stocks and bonds went down – but Brent oil went up before easing off highs.

  The G7 proposal is that they can bring down the cost of energy by using its monopoly on oil tankers and insurance to force Moscow to sell oil at a lower price, choking off its export earnings and war budget to boot. This could work: unless Russia refuses to sell oil to anyone who imposes the price cap, which it will; or Western tankers refuse to comply, or make offshore ship-to-ship transfers; or Western insurers won’t play ball; or India and China start their own insurance schemes; or third parties buy the cheap oil, blend it, and sell it back to world markets at higher prices (and maybe even split the gains with Russia). Meanwhile, thousands of inspectors would be needed to (inefficiently) police it. In short, this G7 scheme plays at a ‘war economy’ rather than doing it for real, “because markets”, and oil prices are more likely to trend higher than lower against such a backdrop.

  That is ironically also the backdrop for the OPEC+ meeting today, which energy markets will be looking to with anticipation: might we see cuts in output.

  Meanwhile, European electricity prices could reportedly hit new highs this week, when the flood of problems already flowing from energy prices is already staggering: 6 out of 10 British manufacturers may go the wall; experts warn of energy rationing that could see Brits told not to cook until after 8pm, pubs close at 9pm, and three-day weeks at schools; aluminium smelters and steel mills are closing; fertilizer companies are shuttering; the Netherlands warns of a plunge in flowers, fruit, and vegetable output, with that of bricks also tumbling; Spanish output of ceramic tiles has halted; and a slew of Italian firms didn’t come back after the summer break. Regardless of gas storage levels for THIS winter, Europe faces an industrial supply-chain collapse – and just as it is has pledged to re-arm to face a worrying geopolitical future.

  The EU makes its peace with economic war

  As such, even though markets are still pricing for local and global commercial activity to continue as before, it is no surprise that the global neo-liberal market system is collapsing around us.

  In the US, Trump-era tariffs on China were just extended; the White House is also considering dramatic restrictions on outward investment to China after its limits on semiconductor sales.

  But that is far from all: after saying it will halt market mechanisms in energy last week, and German rolling out another EUR65bn in price subsidies over the weekend, the EU may be shifting towards a war economy.

  As Reuters puts it: “The EU executive has been looking at how to avoid the supply bottlenecks that accompanied the coronavirus pandemic and no longer wants to rely on companies… to take precautions on their own. The so-called internal market emergency instrument, set to be presented on September 13, lays out several stages that open up varying powers to the Commission depending on the situation.” Via this new instrument the Commission will reportedly seek emergency powers giving it the right to re-organise supply chains; sequester corporate assets; re-write commercial contracts with suppliers and customers; order companies to stockpile strategic reserves; and force them to prioritise EU orders over exports. This is in effect a mirror of the ‘US Defence Production Act’ –  and the current crisis suggests it is likely to be needed soon, and perhaps on a large scale. Colour me unsurprised if so, even if you have to colour markets red.

  2016’s ‘Thin Ice’ showed how rapidly global neoliberalism would unravel based on heterodox economics, which shows neoliberalism’s Achilles’ heels, transition economics, which dissects how planned Soviet economies were turned into market economies, and realpolitik pointing to geopolitical rivalry as the trigger. The combination of the first two has been fabulously instructive, and predictive, in watching post-2008 market economies make the reverse journey, crisis by crisis, into crony socialism for the rich; the last matters too, as lots of people knew the neoliberalism wasn’t working –hence ‘lower for longer’– but couldn’t see how a left-wing policy backlash would happen. The answer was always that once we moved into the realm of national security, such populist policies would happen wrapped in the flag.

  The way to fight economic war

  The same framework can predict what now should logically follow.

  Central bank will keep raising rates rise to deal with inflation – “No Escape From Biggest Bond Loss in Decades as Fed Keeps Hiking,” said Bloomberg this weekend. That said, some will be more willing than others to accept that fact: the Kiwi press, for example, is quoting RBNZ Governor Orr saying, “We’re not there yet, but we’re close,“ on a peak in rates, under the headline “Adrian Orr accepts mortgage rates could fall next year.” Really? Is that how you win an economic war?

  Alongside higher rates, MMT will also need to back state spending in vital areas. Such hypothecated credit will reallocate scarce resources towards supply-chain restructuring and away from the likes of too-much high-end housing. Indeed, the question is when/if we also get non-fungible credit to key firms that can only go into specific physical capital rather than being arbitraged. It might take a central bank digital currency to do it, but it will happen: you don’t win wars with SPVs and spivs.

  MMT will probably also be used to supress energy prices to maintain as much industrial supply as possible, and to minimize household pain. In which case, we will have to see the Commission’s proposed industrial policy too: because if we do not have energy rationing by price, which the Soviets avoided, then we will have it by diktat, as the Soviets then had to do. And note the Soviets only avoided a currency collapse with capital controls and fixed exchange rates.

  We will also require friendshoring or onshoring to recycle capital and keep production in ‘safe’ hands. It’s time for market analysts to stop looking at papers on the benefits of free trade, and to instead read academic papers from other disciplines, such as ‘Wartime Commercial Policy and Trade between Enemies’ (Grinberg, 2021), which assesses how trade works during wars. Grinberg shows there are rare examples of countries selling weapons to their enemies: in the Siege of Grave, the French commander was ordered to sell gunpowder to the Dutch forces besieging his town. There is evidence for business-as-usual non-military trade despite bloodshed in smaller wars: during the Crimean War (1853-56), flax, hemp, linseed, and tallow trade continued between the UK and Russia given no alternative buyers or sellers. Even early in WW1, UK-German trade-flows were so large that they were allowed to continue either directly or via third parties.

  However, the key conclusion is the more a war is seen as existential and/or long term, the more trade is disrupted, whatever the costs – and business lobbying has little effect on such national security decisions.

  It’s existential to get this call right

  It goes without saying this war is existential for Ukraine; and Russia says it is for it too. The above hypothesis suggests the Commission’s latest policy proposals say the war is also existential and/or long-term for Europe. By contrast, the G7’s laughable oil-price cap says Ukraine is a far less important, shorter term struggle. Either that, or it reflects the ‘Crimean’ reality that there is no alternative oil seller or buyer. In which case, no, not just back to “because markets”…. the Commission’s proposals for rationing by diktat and industrial policy are going to be needed even more, as shown above.

  The alternative policy call stemming from the populist right and left –even from heterodox voices who predicted this neoliberal collapse, such as the brilliant Steve ‘MMT’ Keen– is to say ‘give Putin Ukraine to get cheap gas’. However, this is a simplistic “because not markets” view which fails to see the logical and historical risks that a Western retreat could open the door for more, and more global, war; for more, and more global weaponization of commodities and trade; and, though nobody in the West will publicly admit it, for a huge tail risk to the living standards it (fairly or unfairly) enjoys.

  In short, this war clearly remains both existential and long-term: and Grinberg’s hypothesis, and my own ‘Thin Ice’ framework, say commercial activity will shift accordingly. Indeed, if the Commission crosses the looming policy Rubicon, the EU may not be able to go back to ‘normal’ until its economy has been restructured defensively – literally so; and until geopolitical risks have been resolved by said defensive actions; and that might take years, or even *decades*.

  Markets will have to make their peace with the reality of economic war: more state controls on what you can and can’t do; rationing by price or by diktat; MMT; perhaps non-fungible credit; higher structural inflation; higher interest rates; mercantilism in ideological blocs; and a broad reversal of globalisation’s trend of higher asset prices and lower goods prices.

  You have not seen what Ga-Liz-riel has seen

  Against this backdrop, Ga-Liz-riel Truss is likely to be selected as the new UK PM today and assume office tomorrow – to face perhaps 20% inflation, strikes, recession, shortages, blackouts, ‘economic’ war with Russia, and possible trade war with the EU over Northern Ireland.

  Her philosophy of “geoliberalism” makes her a foreign policy leader in shining armor with blade out for Russia and China. Yet her Brexit self-confidence may also see her dive into the sea to swim away from allies in Europe and the West, ending up on a raft. Further, while absolutely cognizant of the ongoing economic war, having called for the G7 to become an “economic NATO”, and backing a new global “Network of Liberty”, her domestic policy is hard to reconcile with it.

  Truss is adamantly backing tax cuts for high earners and businesses, despite all the evidence that this is the worst possible way to run MMT or boost the supply-side; and she may also introduce Covid-scale price subsidies to keep energy lower. If so, that is a belt and braces, and sword and shield and plate-mail armour, approach that will artificially suppress supply shocks while juicing demand, and yet doing nothing to restructure supply chains defensively, or to reallocate physically scarce resources. Nobody wins an economic war that way.

  Apparently, however, we should all expect confident Ga-Liz-riel statements that: “You have not seen what I have seen.” Like the 1970’s collapse in Sterling, where the IMF had to be called in?

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/05/2022 – 15:10

• Russia Sanctions Ben Stiller & Sean Penn In New Blacklist Of 25 Americans
  Russia Sanctions Ben Stiller & Sean Penn In New Blacklist Of 25 Americans

  Russia announced Monday that it has blacklisted American actors over their activities in support of the Ukrainian government, also as retaliation for recent anti-Kremlin US sanctions. In total 25 US citizens, including senators and analysts at think tanks, are on the updated list.

  The list of those now banned from entering Russia “on a permanent basis” – according a Russian foreign ministry statement – includes Ben Stiller and Sean Penn, both of which met with President Volodymyr Zelensky in June. 

  

  A foreign ministry statement said the fresh action is in response to the “ever-expanding” US sanctions “against Russian citizens”. At this point, an estimated more than one thousand American nationals have been barred from entering Russia. 

  “As a measure in response to the ever-expanding personal sanctions on Russian citizens by [the US President] Joe Biden’s administration a permanent ban to enter the Russian Federation has been imposed on another group of US Congress members, high-ranking officials, members of the business and expert community and cultural figures (25 people),” the statement reads.

  “The hostile actions of US authorities, which continue to follow a Russophobic course, destroying bilateral ties and escalating confrontation between Russia and the United States, will continue to be resolutely rebuffed,” the ministry said.

  In late June Stiller traveled to Ukraine to meet with Zelensky, declaring the president “my hero”:

  “It’s a great honor for me.. you’re my hero!” said Stiller, a UN goodwill ambassador who met the Ukrainian leader on World Refugee Day.

  “What you’ve done, the way that you’ve rallied the country, the world, it’s really inspiring,” said the 56-year-old American comedian referring to Zelensky’s countless speeches to audiences around the world to rally support for his embattled country.

  Zelensky’s office released video of the meeting with the Hollywood star…

  As for Sean Penn, he was actually in Ukraine working on a documentary at the moment Russia invaded on Feb. 24.

  Ukraine subsequently bestowed top state awards to both Stiller and Penn “for support, upholding freedom and independence of Ukraine” – which they’ve continued to do in public statements and on social media.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/05/2022 – 14:45

• Country Singer Jason Aldean Dropped By Longtime PR Firm Over Wife's Gender Comments
  Country Singer Jason Aldean Dropped By Longtime PR Firm Over Wife’s Gender Comments

  Authored by Jonathan Turley,

  Country singer Jason Aldean has been dropped by his longtime PR firm, GreenRoom PR, after his wife, Brittany Aldean, criticized early interventions on gender transitioning for young children.

  Brittany Aldean said that she was thankful that her parents did not intervene during her “tomboy phase” because she loves being a female. Various stars and advocates denounced her and GreenRoom then dropped her husband. What is interesting is that the company had its client list displayed yesterday but just removed the list and its home page. The effort may be to protect other country stars from the backlash of staying with the company when it is effectively blacklisting an artist for the political or social views of his spouse.

  

  Tyne Parrish, the co-owner of The Green Room called it a “difficult decision after 17 years to step away from representing Jason.”

  The call for the firm to drop the artist grew after this statement last week in an Instagram post by Aldrean that she would “really like to thank my parents for not changing my gender when I went through my tomboy phase.”

  “The Bones” singer Maren Morris later commented on Pope’s post, writing, “It’s so easy to, like, not be a scumbag human? Sell your clip-ins and zip it, Insurrection Barbie.”

  Aldrean later responded to her critics by saying “Advocating for the genital mutilation of children under the disguise of love and calling it ‘gender affirming care’ is one of the worst evils.”

  Singer and songwriter Cassadee Pope responded to Brittany Aldean’s post on Twitter, noting that Brittany Aldean’s alleged “tomboy phase” in no way compares “to someone wanting to transition.”

  Pope captured the essence of any people are angry with the comment.

  However, my concern, as usual, is with the free speech implications of what has become a type of blacklisting culture for those with unpopular or controversial political, social, or religious views. I understand the objections to Aldean’s comments but the response is reminiscent of the campaign against JK Rowling as a TERF (Trans Exclusionary Radical Feminist), including banning and burning her books. There is no willingness to separate her creative work from her personal views.

  In this case, a singer is being blacklisted because his wife (and possibly Aldean himself) hold conservative views on gender transitioning for young children. Yet, while some artists have joined the campaign, most others are silent, including the country singers represented by Green Room PR.

  Those listed artists included Lauren Akins, Tucker Beathard, Dierks Bentley, Bobby Bones, BROOKS & DUNN, Travis Denning, Patrict Droney, Caylee Hammack, and others. The home page now says simply “Contact: news@thegreenroompr.com” if you want to know who the firm represents or anything about the firm.

  The concern is clearly that these artists might make the “difficult decision” of separating from the firm after it dropped a fellow artist over the political and social views of his spouse.  The firm yielded to the pressure on one side but seems to be moving to protect itself from a backlash from country music fans.

  I would be raising the same free speech concerns if an artist was dropped because a spouse supported gender transitioning. The issue is whether the arts community should impose a de facto political litmus test for artists.  Blacklisting by studios and firms was common in the 1950s when communists and other political dissenters were being attacked by figures like Eugene McCarthy. The left has now embraced the practice in a far more extensive systems of banning books, speakers, and events by those who hold opposing views.

  Here is Aldean’s interview on Fox News:

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/05/2022 – 14:20

• China Slashes FX Deposit Requirement To Prop Up Yuan… But Only Delays The Inevitable
  China Slashes FX Deposit Requirement To Prop Up Yuan… But Only Delays The Inevitable

  With the yuan in freefall, on Monday morning China announced it will cut the reserve requirement ratio on FX deposits by 2% from 8% to 6%, effective September 15th, in a move aimed to stem its currency’s fall. This announcement came after more than 3% depreciation of the USDCNY since mid-August on the back of a stronger USD. This was China’s second FX RRR cut this year – on 25 April, PBOC cut the RRR on FX deposits by 1% from 9% to 8% after CNY depreciated by almost 3% against the USD in one week.

  According to Goldman, this cut should help increase FX liquidity onshore, easing FX appreciation (i.e., CNY depreciation) pressures as a result. And while the actual liquidity impact from this cut looks modest by Goldman’s estimates – onshore FX deposits stood at $674BN as of July 2022, so a 2% cut implies $13BN liquidity release – this cut serves as a strong policy signal that the PBOC is uncomfortable with the rapid depreciation of the currency especially ahead of the 20th Party Congress in October; sure enough the USDCNH appreciated slightly immediately after this announcement.

  Indeed, as Goldman’s Maggie Wei writes, the countercyclical factor (CCF) in the daily fixing also implies strengthening bias by the PBOC in recent days.

  

  The bank found a similar pattern ahead of the previous 19th National Party Congress in October 2017, when policymakers leaned against CNY depreciation through more negative CCF ahead of the Congress, though policy signals were less obvious going into the Congress in 2017.

  

  Looking forward, Goldman expects USD strength to continue in the near term, and local Covid outbreaks and property weakness to continue to drag on activity growth in China. As such, the bank expects USDCNY to depreciate to 7.0 over a 3-month horizon. After the 20th Party Congress, Wei adds that “policymakers might also have higher tolerance for CNY weakness” –  during a press conference this afternoon (September 5th), PBOC deputy governor Liu Guoqiang stated the exchange rate has been more flexible and acting as the automatic stabilizer of both the macroeconomy and the global balance of payments. He added that the exchange rate should demonstrate two-way fluctuations, and not necessarily stick to any fixed number. Goldman agrees, and thinks the PBOC might have tolerance for further CNY depreciation against the USD, especially as the broad USD continues to strengthen, though they might want to avoid continued and too fast one-way depreciation if possible.

  Bloomberg’s Simon White agrees and writes that “the forces causing the yuan to decline are structural, and there is a mounting likelihood that China may eventually drop the fixed-exchange rate regime altogether.”

  As White adds, Beijing’s FX RRR cut “is unlikely to be enough to countervail the structural problems in China putting pressure on the nominally-closed capital account. China’s response to the economic impact of lockdowns has been to aim stimulus at the predominantly export-facing SOE sector. The result has been a surge of almost $0.5 trillion in China’s trade surplus since 2020.”

  Indeed, a look at the underlying drivers of the surplus gets to the heart of China’s main problem: the surplus grew not just due to a surge in exports, but a stagnation in imports. Stimulus in China comes at a cost to the household sector, a net importer. In a sign of the poor sentiment and pessimism in the household sector — driven by financial repression, lockdowns and collapses in property prices — new CNY loan growth for households has fallen to at least 13-year lows.

  

  The bottom line, according to the Bloomberg commentator, is that China’s growth model is broken, as the loss in demand from the household sector is greater than any gain from the export sector, leading to lower growth overall, and thus greater pressure on the capital account. This is enough to push the yuan lower, but China also faces a mounting risk from its heavy debt load.  China has had the largest rise in private debt levels since 2010, and its debt-service ratio is through the danger level of 20%.

  And while high debt when growth is strong and rising is manageable, it becomes much less so when growth is falling.

  There are several levers China can pull to alleviate the growth impact from increased capital flight. One of these is allowing the yuan to weaken. But if the pain becomes too much, White believes that China may choose to abandon its fixed-rate regime altogether, which would have many profound (and dire for the status quo) implications, including for EM monetary policy and global supply chains.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/05/2022 – 13:55