Today’s News 15th January 2025

• The War Behind The War: What World War III Is Really Being Fought Over
  The War Behind The War: What World War III Is Really Being Fought Over

  Authored by Leo Hohmann via substack,

  World War III, like all 21st century wars, is not being fought over ideologies.

  It’s being fought over energy and natural resources.

  Because he who controls the world’s resources will be free to impose whatever ideology he wants.

  

  Washington and London, the epicenter of the Western liberal world order that thinks it’s admirable and virtuous to redefine God-created genders and appropriate to unleash deviant transvestites on innocent school children, is seeking to neutralize the massive resources of Russia as it ramps up its “net zero” sustainable development model of economic progress. This economic model is really just a scam designed to pilfer what remains of the middle class and further subjugate them under AI-powered government-corporate control. Hence the need for more massive data centers, which Donald Trump is being used to build across the United States with $8 billion in foreign investment from a billionaire in the United Arab Emirates.

  The surveillance state cannot be built out without these data centers scooping up, processing and storing highly personal information on every citizen. But Trump is either too dumb to know this or doesn’t care because he is blinded by a naive belief that without an expanded AI America will lose its global hegemony.

  The modern technocratic state is going to be based on energy and carbon credits. Fiat currencies will become a thing of the past if these global predators succeed in their plans for a one-world surveillance state, where freedom of movement becomes a distant memory. Our healthcare and even our diets will also be tightly controlled by the elitist globalist predator class, whose interests are exemplified by the World Economic Forum and other elitist organizations.

  With an understanding of the ongoing war over who controls the global food and energy supplies, it becomes easy to see how the NATO-Russia war (with Ukraine as NATO’s proxy) will blow up into World War III.

  Moscow accused Ukraine Monday of conducting “energy terrorism” after what the Kremlin described as a failed drone attack against a Black Sea gas-compressor station that forms part of the major TurkStream gas pipeline linking Russia and Turkey.

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  This following report is from the France 24 media outlet.

  The Kremlin accused Ukraine of conducting “energy terrorism” and posing a danger to Europe‘s energy security, after an attempted drone attack on part of a major gas pipeline that carries Russian supplies to Turkey.

  The allegation comes amid an escalating energy war between the two countries, almost three years after Russia launched its military offensive.

  Ukraine has not commented on the alleged attack.

  Ukraine halted the transit of Russian gas to third countries via Ukraine on January 1, ending decades of energy cooperation that had brought billions of dollars to both countries, in a bid to cut off revenue for Moscow’s army.

  The United States last week rolled out fresh sanctions on Russia’s oil sector in another blow to Moscow’s vital hydrocarbon industry.

  The Russian defense ministry said on Monday that Ukraine had fired nine attack drones on Saturday at a gas-compressor station in the village of Gai-Kodzor, near Russia’s southern coast on the Black Sea.

  The site is across from the Crimean peninsula — which was unilaterally annexed by Russia in 2014 and has been heavily targeted by Kyiv throughout the three-year war.

  Moscow said the facility was part of the TurkStream pipeline and accused Ukraine of trying to “cut off gas supplies to European countries.”

  The Moscow Times further reported as follows:

  The Defense Ministry said all the drones were shot down but some “minor damage” was recorded from falling debris. Gas deliveries were unaffected.

  According to Russian state news agencies, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the attack a “continuation of the line of energy terrorism that Kyiv has been pursuing, under the curation of its overseas friends, for a long time.”

  He called it “very dangerous for European consumers” and said Russia’s foreign minister and the head of Gazprom had discussed it in a call with their Turkish counterparts on Sunday.

  Moscow’s forces have bombarded Ukraine’s energy sector with repeated aerial strikes since February 2022, causing major damage and power outages across the country.

  The Western puppet politicians would have us believe the war is being fought over “democracy.” They say Putin is a dictator who wants to take over all of Europe. This is preposterous. The Soviet Empire collapsed because it could not handle the financial burden of keeping the Eastern European countries under its thumb, and Putin knows this. Russia is not capable of conquering and occupying Eastern Europe, let alone all of Western Europe, too. So these Western leaders are lying through their teeth, and unfortunately the Western press is all too happy to parrot thier fear-mongering narratives about Putin.

  But even if Putin was as bad of a dictator as they tell us, the U.S. and NATO have in the past had no problem with dictators as long as they trade in dollars and follow the rules of the post-World War II liberal world order.

  Don’t buy the hypocritical and self-righteous lies so prevalent throughout the Western media, including much of the conservative media. The war in Ukraine has nothing to do with democracy. It’s being fought for the sole purpose of detaching Putin from his position in control of a vast store of natural gas, oil, gold, uranium, and other valuable natural resources that the West wants to control and profit from. They can’t profit from it as long as Putin is in charge of Russia. And the last thing Washington wants to see is Putin plowing those oil and gas profits into his military/defense/industrial sector at a time when the West is seeking to eliminate so-called “fossil fuels” and convert to unreliable, less efficient and more expensive wind and solar energy.

  The Kremlin on Monday also accused the United States of “destabilizing” the world energy market through fresh sanctions on Russian oil producers.

  The United States and Britain on Friday announced sanctions against Russia’s energy sector, including oil giant Gazprom Neft and 180 ships it says are part of Moscow’s “shadow fleet.”

  The move came just days before U.S. President Joe Biden leaves office.

  No one wants to give their sons to fight and die in a war being fought over which country’s elites get to exploit the most resources. But they will send their sons to die if the stakes are recalibrated into a lying narrative about “fighting for democracy and freedom.” The elites figured this out a long time ago, and it still works beautifully for them today. They are laughing all the way to the bank.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 01/14/2025 – 23:25

• China's BYD Is Only Real Contender To Tesla's Global EV Market Share Dominance
  China’s BYD Is Only Real Contender To Tesla’s Global EV Market Share Dominance

  As of September 2024, Tesla retained the biggest market share among all battery electric vehicles (BEVs) sold worldwide in 2024, but only slightly. In 2023, Tesla’s share stood at 19 percent before dropping to 18 percent in first nine months of 2024, according to analyses by EV Volumes published on CleanTechnica.

  The competition is now hot on Tesla’s heels. As Statista’s Florian Zandt shows in the chart below, the Chinese conglomerate BYD, which produces standalone electric vehicle batteries and associated electronics in addition to plug-in hybrid and fully electric vehicles, increased its market share by 9 percentage points between 2021 and 2024.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  As CleanTechnica points out, BYD’s market share in the BEV market might not increase that much in 2025 due to the manufacturer focusing on plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in the upcoming year.

  The BEV portfolio of legacy automakers like Volkswagen and Geely-Volvo stood at 7 and 8 percent, respectively, while SAIC, which includes the joint venture between the Chinese state-owned SAIC Motor and Wuling as well as General Motors, also had a market share of 8 percent as of the most recently available data.

  Between 2023 and January to September 2024, BYD’s and Tesla’s shares dropped by 1 percentage point each. BYD is focused on providing BEVs to a more general consumer base, while Tesla’s products have a higher price tag. This difference might be slightly mitigated through the increase of tariffs on Chinese-made cars from 25 to 100 percent which came into effect in August 2024.

  According to EV Volumes, 14 million electric vehicles were sold globally in 2023, 70 percent of which were BEVs. However, 84 percent of all light vehicles sold still ran on traditional combustion engines or other non-electric fuel sources. The biggest exporter and market for both hybrids and BEVs was China with shares of 65 and 59 percent, respectively.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 01/14/2025 – 23:00

• Trump Envoy Speaks At MEK Conference On Regime Change In Iran
  Trump Envoy Speaks At MEK Conference On Regime Change In Iran

  Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

  Keith Kellog, who will serve as an envoy for the Ukraine war in the incoming Trump administration, spoke at an event in Paris over the weekend hosted by the National Council of Resistance of Iran, an organization led by the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK), a cult that seeks regime change in Iran.

  Kellog said at the event that the world should reinstate “maximum pressure” on Iran. “These pressures are not just kinetic, just not military force, but they must be economic and diplomatic as well,” he said, according to Reuters.

  Kellog said there was an opportunity “to change Iran for the better” but said it wouldn’t last for long. “We must exploit the weakness we now see. The hope is there, so must too be the action,” he said.

  

  Opening the conference, Maryam Rajavi, MEK’s leader, claimed the “Iranian regime is on the brink of collapse” and cited several reasons, including the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, an ally of Tehran.

  The MEK is known to pay its speakers very well and usually hosts a number of Western officials. Other notable speakers at the event included James Jones, who served as President Obama’s national security advisor from 2009 to 2010, Liz Truss, who was the UK’s prime minister for just a few weeks in 2022, and Tod Wolters, a retired US Air Force general who served as the Supreme Allied Commander of NATO until 2022.

  Iran’s Foreign Ministry condemned the conference, saying, “The hosting of a terrorist group by France is a clear example of support for terrorism and a violation of the French government’s international legal obligation to combat terrorism.”

  Kellog’s participation in the event suggests the MEK may have a line into the incoming Trump administration, which is signaling it will be very hawkish on Iran.

  While many Iran hawks in the US are friendly with the MEK and want them to take over Iran, the group has virtually no support inside Iran due to its history of carrying out terrorist attacks in the country and for siding with Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s. The MEK is also suspected of cooperating with Israel in assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists that took place in 2012.

  For many years, the MEK was based in Iraq, but the US helped the group resettle in Albania, which began in 2013. The US government even donated $20 million to the UN’s refugee agency to help with the resettlement.

  Conference Iran: On a “New Policy toward the Iranian Regime”
  The Overthrow of the ruling theocracy is the only path to freedom in #Iran and peace in the region
  Today, the balance of power in the region has shifted against the regime. With the fall of Bashar Assad, the regime’s… pic.twitter.com/CXHc6vn7fw

  — Maryam Rajavi (@Maryam_Rajavi) January 11, 2025

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The MEK was founded as a Marxist Islamic organization in the 1960s by Massoud Rajavi, Maryam Rajavi’s husband, who has been missing since 2003.

  A report about the MEK published by the RAND Corporation in 2009 concluded that the group has “many of the typical characteristics of a cult, such as authoritarian control, confiscation of assets, sexual control (including mandatory divorce and celibacy), emotional isolation, forced labor, sleep deprivation, physical abuse and limited exit options.”

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 01/14/2025 – 22:35

• Yemen's Houthis Target Israel Three Times In 12 Hours
  Yemen’s Houthis Target Israel Three Times In 12 Hours

  The Yemeni Houthi forces announced Tuesday that it targeted the Israeli Defense Ministry headquarters in Tel Aviv with a hypersonic missile. Israeli media also confirmed an attempted attack, which triggered emergency sirens across the central Israeli region:

  Yemen’s Houthi rebels claim an overnight missile attack on Israel, saying they had launched a “hypersonic ballistic missile” into “occupied Jaffa,” a reference to the Israeli commercial hub of Tel Aviv.

  The IDF said it had attempted an interception of the missile that set off sirens in a large swath of central Israel. The launch came on the heels of a Monday night attack in which a projectile fired from Yemen was intercepted “prior to crossing into Israeli territory,” according to the military.

  

  It is unclear where the projectile may have landed, but Israel is not reporting any significant damage to its military facilities.

  But what is clear is that the Houthis have remained undeterred in their attacks, despite round after round of US and Israeli airstrikes on Yemen over the last several weeks.

  Crucially, this marks no less than the third Houthi operation against Israel within 12 hours – which has included drone launches as well. “This is the third operation within 12 hours,” a Houthi military statement boasted.

  There is some evidence in regional reporting that a projectile that was part of these assaults damaged a private residence:

  Part of the missile landed on the roof of a home west of occupied Jerusalem. The Israeli army said in two separate statements, hours apart, on 13 January that it intercepted a missile and a drone launched from Yemen. 

  The Yemeni army said on Tuesday that it attacked a “vital target” and launched four drones at targets in the Tel Aviv area. 

  On January 10 the US, UK, and Israel conducted a rare three-way attack on Yemen, hitting various parts including the key port of Hodeidah. The capital of Sanaa was also hit, even as a large civilian demonstration was happening.

  This week President Biden has proclaimed that Israel and Hamas are “on the brink” of finally achieving a ceasefire deal and hostage exchange. It’s anything but clear whether the Houthis would also honor this and cease their rocket launches. 

  🔴 Houthi missile fragment removed from home in Tsur Hadassah, near Jerusalem

  🎥 Credit: 27A pic.twitter.com/G3fLRwFpd7

  — i24NEWS English (@i24NEWS_EN) January 14, 2025

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Houthi leaders have demanded a full Israeli military withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, and have threatened to keep attacking Israel and ships in the Red Sea until this happens. Israeli military leaders have at the same time vowed to ‘hunt’ down top Houthi officials, seen as Iran’s proxies.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 01/14/2025 – 22:10

• Washington Dems Propose Bill Banning Child Care Workers From Reporting Illegal Immigrants To Feds
  Washington Dems Propose Bill Banning Child Care Workers From Reporting Illegal Immigrants To Feds

  Despite Trump’s win in November and his inauguration in less than a week, Democrats aren’t letting go of the illegal immigration rope. 

  In fact, now, Washington Democrats have proposed a bill barring child care employers, including families, from reporting criminal illegal immigrants to federal authorities, even if suspected of crimes against children, according to KTTH.

  House Bill 1128 creates the Washington State Child Care Workforce Standards Board, giving Democrats greater control over the child care industry. It sets new rules for wages, benefits, and working conditions, along with additional “rights” for child care workers.

  Controversially, it also bans employers from reporting or threatening to report a child care worker’s immigration status for asserting rights under the act, raising constitutional concerns.

  The KTTH report says that House Bill 1128 defines any employer of child care workers, including families, as a “child care employer,” bringing private hiring arrangements under its purview. Democrats argue the bill addresses low pay and high turnover in the child care industry, aiming to improve quality and accessibility by enhancing worker protections and stability.

  However, critics contend it represents a partisan takeover of the child care industry and shields illegal immigrants, even those who pose risks.

  

  A contentious provision in the bill bars employers from reporting a child care worker’s immigration status if the worker is exercising a right created under the legislation. This could lead to retaliation claims, even long after an incident.

  If a child care worker is found to be in the country illegally while invoking these rights, employers would be prohibited from reporting them to federal authorities. Critics warn this loophole could enable neglectful or abusive workers to avoid accountability, endangering children and allowing such individuals to find employment elsewhere.

  The bill also raises constitutional concerns by conflicting with federal law. The Immigration Reform and Control Act requires employers to verify work authorization and prohibits hiring unauthorized workers.

  A state law preventing employers from reporting illegal workers interferes with federal obligations, potentially violating the Supremacy Clause, which ensures federal law takes precedence. Critics argue this interference undermines immigration enforcement and federal authority.

  Despite constitutional and safety concerns, proponents remain focused on worker protections, while opponents highlight risks to children and families. As debates continue, the bill underscores broader tensions between state policies and federal immigration law, with far-reaching implications for child care and beyond.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 01/14/2025 – 21:20

• Stockman: Wildfires And The Hoary Hoax Of A Burning Planet
  Stockman: Wildfires And The Hoary Hoax Of A Burning Planet

  Authored by David Stockman via The Brownstone Institute,

  Here they go again, blaming the wildfire catastrophe in Los Angeles on Climate Change when the actual culprits are the very politicians who never stop howling about what is a monumental hoax.

  

  In the first place, of course, the current raging California fires, like those which have periodically gone before, are largely a function of misguided government policies. Officials have essentially curtailed the supply of water available to LA firefighters, even as they have drastically increased the supply of combustible kindling and vegetation which feeds these wildfires. The latter, in turn, are being amplified by the seasonal Santa Ana winds, which have visited the California coast since time immemorial.

  The kindling at issue stems from forest management policies that prevent the removal of excess fuel via controlled burns, which are fires intentionally set by forest managers to reduce the buildup of hazardous fuels. As we amplify below, red tape and bureaucratic obstacles have frequently delayed or prevented these controlled burns, allowing brush, dead trees, and other flammable materials to accumulate excessively.

  In this case, state and Federal politicians have simultaneously curtailed the supply of water available to Los Angeles firefighters in order to protect so-called endangered species. Specifically, southern California is being held hostage by sharp curtailment of the water pumping rates from the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta in order to protect the Delta Smelt and Chinook Salmon.

  These former are shiny but tiny little buggers, as suggested by the handful of Smelt in the first picture below. But apparently, if they are protected, fished, and then fried up, they make for a certain kind of delicacy.

  

  Needless to say, California is entitled to stew in the foolishness of its own policies—if that’s what its voters really want. But its self-imposed misery should not be an occasion for more howling in favor of Washington policies to fight climate change.

  At least with respect to the latter, the Donald has his head screwed on right. And he does not hesitate to opine on the matter, which is all to the good of balancing what has otherwise been a wholly one-sided and utterly misleading Climate Crisis narrative. Naturally, the latter has been promulgated and peddled by statists because it provides yet one more big, scary, and urgent reason for an “all of government” campaign of more spending, borrowing, regulating, and the curtailing of free market enterprise and personal liberty.

  So let us once again review the bogus case for AGW or what is known as Anthropogenic Global Warming. And perforce it must start with the geological and paleontological evidence, which overwhelmingly says that today’s average global temperature of about 15 degrees C and CO2 concentrations of 420 ppm are nothing to fret about. And even if they rise to about 17-18 degrees C and 500-600 ppms, respectively, by the end of the century owing mainly to a natural warming cycle that has been underway since the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) in 1850, it may well on balance improve the lot of mankind.

  After all, bursts of civilization during the last 10,000 years uniformly occurred during the warmer red portion of the graph below. The great civilizations of the Yellow, Indus, Nile, and Tigris/Euphrates river valleys, the Minoan era, the Greco-Roman civilization, the Medieval flowering, and the industrial and technological revolutions of the present era all were enabled by periods of elevated temperatures. At the same time, the several lapses into “dark ages” happened when the climate turned colder (blue).

  And that’s only logical. When it’s warmer and wetter, growing seasons are longer and crop yields are better—regardless of the agricultural technology and practices of the moment. And it’s better for human and community health, too—most of the deadly plagues of history have occurred under colder climes, such as the Black Death of 1344-1350.

  Yet the Climate Crisis narrative deep-sixes this massive body of “the science” by means of two deceptive devices. Without them, the entire AGW story doesn’t have much of a leg to stand on.

  

  First, it ignores the entirety of the planet’s pre-Holocene (last 10,000 years) history, even though the science shows that more than 90% of the time in the last 600 million years global temperatures (blue line) and CO2 levels (black line) have been higher than at present; and that 50% of the time they were much higher—with temperatures in the range of 22 degrees C or 50% higher than current levels. 

  

  That’s far beyond anything projected by the most unhinged climate models today. But, crucially, the planetary climate systems did not go into a doomsday loop of ever increasing temperatures ending in a scorching meltdown. To the contrary, warming epochs were always checked and reversed by powerful countervailing forces.

  Even the history the alarmists do acknowledge has been grotesquely falsified. As we have demonstrated elsewhere, the so-called “hockey stick” of the most recent 1,000 years in which temperatures were allegedly flat until 1850 and are now rising to supposedly dangerous levels is a complete crock. It was fraudulently manufactured by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) to “cancel” the fact that temperatures in the pre-industrial world of the Medieval Warm Period (1000-1200 AD) were actually significantly higher than at present.

  Secondly, it is falsely claimed that global warming is a one-way street in which rising concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and especially CO2 is causing the earth’s heat balance to continuously increase. The truth, however, is that higher CO2 concentrations are a consequence and byproduct, not a driver and cause, of the current naturally rising (and falling) global temperature cycles.

  Again, the now “canceled” history of Planet Earth knocks the CO2-forcing proposition into a cocked hat. During the Cretaceous Period between 145 and 66 million years (third orange panel) ago a natural experiment provided complete absolution for the vilified CO2 molecule. During that period, global temperatures rose dramatically from 17 degrees C to 25 degrees C—a level far above anything today’s Climate Howlers have ever projected.

  Alas, CO2 wasn’t the culprit. According to the science, ambient CO2 concentrations actually tumbled during the 80 million years expanse of the Cretaceous, dropping from 2,000 ppm to 900 ppm on the eve of the Extinction Event 66 million years ago. So temperature and CO2 concentrations actually moved in the opposite directions. Big time.

  You would think that this powerful countervailing fact would give the CO2 witch-hunters pause, but that would be to ignore what the whole climate change brouhaha is actually about. That is, it’s not about science, human health, and well-being, or the survival of Planet Earth; it’s about politics and the ceaseless search of politicians and statists for control of modern economic and social life. The resulting aggrandizement of state power, in turn, is mightily assisted by the Beltway political class and the apparatchiks and racketeers who gain power and pelf from the anti-fossil fuels campaign.

  Indeed, the Climate Crisis narrative is the kind of ritualized policy mantra that has been concocted over and again by the political class and the permanent nomenklatura of the modern state—professors, think-tankers, lobbyists, career apparatchiks, officialdom—in order to gather and exercise state power.

  To paraphrase the great Randolph Bourne, inventing purported failings of capitalism—such as a propensity to burn too much hydrocarbon—is the health of the state. Indeed, fabrication of false problems and threats that purportedly can only be solved by heavy-handed state intervention has become the modus operandi of a political class that has usurped near complete control of modern democracy.

  So doing, however, the career political class and associated ruling elites have gotten used to such unimpeded success that they have become sloppy, superficial, careless, and dishonest. For instance, the minute we get a summer heat wave or an event like the current LA fires these natural weather events are jammed into the global warming narrative with nary a second thought by the lip-syncing journalists of the MSM.

  Yet there is absolutely no scientific basis for all this tom-tom beating. For instance, on the related issue of heat waves and dry period wildfires, NOAA publishes a heat wave index. The latter is based on extended temperature spikes which last more than 4 days and which would be expected to occur only once every ten years based on the historical data.

  As is evident from the chart below, the only true heat wave spikes we have had in the last 125 years were during the Dust Bowl heat waves of the 1930s. The frequency of mini-heat wave spikes since 1960 is actually no greater than it was during the 1895-1935 period.

  Likewise, all it takes is a good Cat 3 hurricane and they are off to the races, gumming loudly about AGW. Of course, this ignores entirely NOAA’s own data as summarized in what is known as the ACE (accumulated cyclone energy) index.

  This index was first developed by the renowned hurricane expert and Colorado State University professor, William Gray. It uses a calculation of a tropical cyclone’s maximum sustained winds every six hours. The latter is then multiplied by itself to get the index value and accumulated for all storms for all regions to get an index value for the entire year. That’s shown below for the past 170 years (the blue line is the seven-year rolling average).

  Your editor has an especially high regard for Professor Gray—not the least because he was roundly vilified by the very inexpert, Al Gore. But back in our private equity days, we invested in a Property-Cat company, which was in the super-hazardous business of insuring against the extreme layers of damage caused by very bad hurricanes and earthquakes. So setting the premiums correctly was no trifling business and it was the analytics, long-term databases, and current-year forecasts of Professor Gray upon which our underwriters crucially depended.

  That is to say, hundreds of billions of insurance cover was then and still is being written with the ACE index as a crucial input. Yet if you examine the 7-year rolling average (blue line) in the chart, it is evident that ACE was as high (or higher) in the 1950s and 1960s as it is today, and that the same was true of the late 1930s and the 1880-1900 periods.

  To be sure, the blue line is not flat as a board because there are natural short-term cycles, as amplified below, which drive the fluctuations shown in the chart. But there is no “science” extractable from the chart that supports the alleged linkage between the current natural warming cycle and worsening hurricanes.

  

  The above is an aggregate index of all storms and is therefore as comprehensive a measure as exists. But for want of doubt, the next three panels look at hurricane data at the individual storm count level. The pink portion of the bars represent the number of big, dangerous Cat 3-5 storms, while the red portion reflects the number of lesser Cat 1-2 storms and the blue area the number of tropical storms that did not reach Cat 1 intensity.

  The bars accumulate the number of storms in 5-year intervals and reflect recorded activity back to 1851. The reason we present three panels—for the Eastern Caribbean, Western Caribbean, and Bahamas/Turks and Caicos, respectively, is that the trends in these three sub-regions clearly diverge. And that’s actually the smoking gun.

  If global warming was generating more hurricanes as the MSM constantly maintains, the increase would be uniform across all of these sub-regions, but it’s clearly not. Since the year 2000, for example,

  • The Eastern Caribbean has had a modest increase in both tropical storms and higher rated Cats relative to most of the past 170 years;

  • The Western Caribbean has not been unusual at all, and, in fact, has been well below the higher counts during the 1880-1920 period;

  • The Bahamas/Turks and Caicos region since 2000 has actually been well weaker than during 1930-1960 and 1880-1900.

  The actual truth of the matter is that Atlantic hurricane activity is generated by atmospheric and ocean temperature conditions in the eastern Atlantic and North Africa. Those forces, in turn, are heavily influenced by the presence of an El Nino or La Nina in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño events increase the wind shear over the Atlantic, producing a less favorable environment for hurricane formation and decreasing tropical storm activity in the Atlantic basin. Conversely, La Niña causes an increase in hurricane activity due to a decrease in wind shear.

  These Pacific Ocean events, of course, have never been correlated with the low level of natural global warming now underway.

  

  

  

  The number and strength of Atlantic hurricanes may also undergo a 50–70-year cycle known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Again, these cycles are unrelated to global warming trends since 1850.

  Still, scientists have reconstructed Atlantic major hurricane activity back to the early 18th century (@1700) and found five periods with elevated hurricane activity averaging 3–5 major hurricanes per year and lasting 40–60 years each; and six other more quiescent periods averaging 1.5–2.5 major hurricanes per year and lasting 10–20 years each. These periods are associated with a decadal oscillation related to solar irradiance, which is responsible for enhancing/dampening the number of major hurricanes by 1–2 per year, and clearly not a product of AGW.

  Moreover, like in so many other cases the very long-term records of storm activity also rule out AGW because there was none for most of the time during the last 3,000 years, for instance. Yet according to a proxy record for that period from coastal lake sediments on Cape Cod, hurricane activity has increased significantly during the last 500-1,000 years versus earlier periods–but even that increase happened long before temperatures and carbon concentrations reached 20th-century levels.

  In short, there is no reason to believe that these well understood precursor conditions and longer-term hurricane trends have been impacted by the modest increase in average global temperatures since the LIA ended in 1850.

  As it happens, the same story is true with respect to wildfires like the current LA inferno. This has been the third category of natural disaster that the Climate Howlers have glommed onto. But in this case it’s the aforementioned bad forestry management, not man-made global warming, which has turned much of California into a dry wood fuel dump.

  And don’t take our word for it. This quotation below comes from the George Soros-funded Pro Publica, which is not exactly a right-wing tin foil hat outfit. It points out that environmentalists have so shackled Federal and state forest management agencies that today’s tiny “controlled burns” are but an infinitesimal fraction of what Mother Nature herself accomplished before the helping hand of today’s purportedly enlightened political authorities arrived on the scene:

  Academics believe that between 4.4 million and 11.8 million acres burned each year in prehistoric California. Between 1982 and 1998, California’s agency land managers burned, on average, about 30,000 acres a year. Between 1999 and 2017, that number dropped to an annual 13,000 acres. The state passed a few new laws in 2018 designed to facilitate more intentional burning. But few are optimistic this, alone, will lead to significant change. 

  We live with a deathly backlog. In February 2020, Nature Sustainability published this terrifying conclusion: California would need to burn 20 million acres — an area about the size of Maine — to restabilize in terms of fire.

  In short, if you don’t clear and burn out the deadwood, you build up nature-defying tinderboxes that then require only a lightning strike, a spark from an unrepaired power line, or human carelessness to ignite into a raging inferno. As one 40-year conservationist and expert summarized,

   …There’s only one solution, the one we know yet still avoid. “We need to get good fire on the ground and whittle down some of that fuel load.”

  The failure to do just such controlled burns is exactly what is behind the LA wildfire today. That is, a dramatically larger human footprint in the fire-prone shrublands and chaparral (dwarf trees) areas along the coasts has increased the risk residents will start fires, accidentally or otherwise. California’s population doubled from 1970 to 2020, from about 20 million people to nearly 40 million people, and nearly all of the gain was in the coastal areas.

  Under those conditions, California’s strong, naturally-occurring winds, which crest periodically, as is occurring at the moment, are the main culprit which fuels and spreads the human-set blazes in the shrublands. The Diablo winds in the north of the state and the Santa Ana winds in the south can actually reach hurricane force, as has also been the case this week. As the winds move West over California mountains and down toward the coast, they compress, warm, and intensify.

  These winds, in turn, blow flames and carry embers, spreading the fires quickly before they can be contained. And on top of that, the Santa Ana winds also function as Mother Nature’s blow dryer. As they come down the mountains toward the sea, the hot winds dry the surface vegetation and deadwood rapidly and powerfully, paving the way for the blowing embers to fuel the spread of wildfires down the slopes.

  Among other proofs that industrialization and fossil fuels aren’t the culprit is the fact that researchers have shown that when California was occupied by indigenous communities, wildfires would burn up some 4.5 million acres a year. That’s nearly 6X the level experienced during the 2010-2019 period, when wildfires burned an average of just 775,000 acres annually in California.

  Beyond the untoward clash of all of these natural forces of climate and ecology with misguided government forest and shrubland husbandry policies, there is actually an even more dispositive smoking gun, as it were.

  To wit, the Climate Howlers have at least not yet embraced the patent absurdity that the planet’s purportedly rising temperatures have targeted the Blue State of California for special punishment. Yet when we look at the data for forest fires we find, alas, that unlike California and Oregon, the US as a whole experienced the weakest fire years in 2020 since 2010.

  That’s right. As of August 24 each year, the 10-year average burn had been 5.114 million acres across the US, but in 2020 it was 28% lower at 3.714 million acres.

  National fire data year to date:

  

  Indeed, what the above chart shows is that on a national basis there has been no worsening trend at all during the decade ending in 2020, just huge oscillations year-to-year driven not by some grand planetary heat vector but by changing local weather and ecological conditions.

  You just can’t go from 2.7 million burned acres in 2010 to 7.2 million acres in 2012, back to 2.7 million acres in 2014, then to 6.7 million acres in 2017, followed by just 3.7 million acres in 2020—and still argue along with the Climate Howlers that the planet is angry.

  To the contrary, the only real trend evident is that on a decadal basis during recent times there is just one place where the average forest fire acreage has been slowly rising—California!

  

  But that’s owing to the above described dismal failure of government forest management policies. Even then, California’s mildly rising average fire acreage trend since 1950 is a rounding error compared to the annual averages from prehistoric times, which were nearly 6X greater than during the most recent decade.

  Furthermore, the gently rising trend since 1950, as shown below, should not be confused with the Climate Howlers’ bogus claim that California’s fires have “grown more apocalyptic every year,” as the New York Times reported.

  In fact, the NYT was comparing the above average burn during 2020 versus that of 2019, which saw an unusually small amount of acreage burned. That is, just 280,000 acres in 2019 compared to 1.3 million and 1.6 million in 2017 and 2018, respectively, and 775,000 on average over the last decade.

  

  Nor is this lack of correlation with global warming just a California and US phenomena. As shown in the chart below, the global extent of fire-causing drought, measured by five levels of severity with dark brown being the most extreme, has shown no worsening trend at all during the past 40 years.

  

  Global Extent of Five Levels Of Drought, 1982-2012

  This brings us to the gravamen of the case. To wit, there is no angry weather signal of impending climate crisis whatsoever. But the AGW hoax has so thoroughly contaminated the mainstream narrative and the policy apparatus in Washington and capitals all around the world that contemporary society was fixing to commit economic Hara Kari—well, until Donald Trump came along vowing to pull the entire Team America off the playing field of global green nonsense.

  And for damn good reason. In contradistinction to the phony case that the rise of fossil fuel use after 1850 has caused the planetary climate system to become unglued, there has been a sharp acceleration of global economic growth and human well-being. And one essential element behind that salutary development has been the massive increase in the use of cheap fossil fuels to power economic life.

  The chart below could not be more dispositive. During the pre-industrial era between 1500 and 1870, global real GDP crawled along at just 0.41% per annum. By contrast, during the past 150 years of the fossil fuel age global GDP growth accelerated to 2.82% per annum–or nearly 7 times faster.

  This higher growth, of course, in part resulted from a larger and far healthier global population made possible by rising living standards. Yet it wasn’t human muscle alone that caused the GDP level to go parabolic as per the chart below.

  It was also due to the fantastic mobilization of intellectual capital and technology. And one of the most important vectors of the latter was the ingenuity of the fossil fuel industry in unlocking the massive trove of stored work that Mother Nature extracted, condensed, and salted away from the incoming solar energy over the long warmer and wetter eons of the past 600 million years.

  Needless to say, the curve of world energy consumption tightly matches the rise of global GDP shown above. Thus, in 1860 global energy consumption amounted to 30 exajoules per year and virtually 100% of that was represented by the blue layer labeled “bio-fuels,” which is just a polite name for firewood and the decimation of the forests which it entailed.

  Since then, annual energy consumption has increased 18-fold to 550 exajoules (@100 billion barrels of oil equivalent), but 90% of that gain was due to natural gas, coal, and petroleum. The modern world and today’s prosperous global economy would simply not exist absent the massive increase in the use of these efficient fuels, meaning that per capita income and living standards would otherwise be only a small fraction of current levels.

  

  Yes, that dramatic increase in prosperity-generating fossil fuel consumption has given rise to a commensurate increase in CO2 emissions. But as we have indicated, and contrary to the Climate Crisis narrative, CO2 is not a pollutant!

  As we have seen, the correlated increase in CO2 concentrations—from about 290 ppm to 415 ppm since 1850—amounts to a rounding error in both the long trend of history and in terms of atmospheric loadings from natural sources.

  As to the former, CO2 concentrations of less than 1000 ppm are only recent developments of the last ice age, while during prior geologic ages concentrations reached as high as 2400 ppm.

  Likewise, the oceans contain an estimated 37,400 billion tons of suspended carbon, land biomass has 2,000-3,000 billion tons, and the atmosphere contains 720 billion tons of CO2 or 20X more than current fossil emissions shown below. Of course, the opposite side of the equation is that oceans, land, and atmosphere exchange CO2 continuously so the incremental loadings from human sources is very small.

  More importantly, even a small shift in the balance between oceans and the atmosphere would cause a much more severe rise/fall in CO2 concentrations than anything attributable to human activity. But since the Climate Howlers falsely postulate that the pre-industrial level of 290 parts per million was extant since the Big Bang and that the modest rise since 1850 is a one-way ticket to boiling the planet alive, they obsess over the “sources versus sinks” balance in the carbon cycle for no valid reason whatsoever.

  Actually, the continuously shifting carbon balance of the planet over any reasonable period of time is a big, so what!

  *  *  *

  Reposted from Stockman’s personal service

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 01/14/2025 – 20:55

• Visualizing All Of Canada's Cancelled Energy Projects
  Visualizing All Of Canada’s Cancelled Energy Projects

  Authored by Omid Ghoreishi via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  While Canada’s resource sector was dealt a blow with the cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline’s permit by the United States, Canadian officials are facing another challenge as Michigan’s governor tries to shut down Enbridge’s Line 5 pipeline.

  

  The Line 5 pipeline, which crosses Wisconsin and Michigan, brings oil from Western Canada east, where it is refined in Sarnia, Ont., into products like gasoline, diesel, and home-heating fuel. Shutting down Line 5 would have a major impact on the crude oil supply of Eastern Canada and cost thousands of jobs.

  Some activist groups in Minnesota are also hoping to stop Calgary-based Enbridge’s Line 3 project, launching legal challenges and even hoping U.S. President Joe Biden will cancel the project like he did Keystone XL. Line 3, along with the Trans Mountain expansion project and Keystone XL, before the latter’s permit was revoked, are the three major oil pipeline projects currently underway in Canada.

  But impediments to Canada’s pipeline and resource projects aren’t limited to the ones crossing the border. In recent years the country has seen a number of cancellations and hold-offs on energy projects located within its own borders. Some were due to market conditions and prioritization decisions by owners. But a considerable number of projects have been cancelled due to cited uncertainty in the regulatory process and environmental policies, as well as indigenous consultation complexities.

  Ottawa has introduced new environmental legislation, including Bill C-69, which faced challenges from some provinces for increasing the regulatory burden. Bill C-69, which became law in 2019, set out a new federal process for the environmental impact assessment of major projects. The opposition Conservatives and industry groups said the legislation will scare away investors, while the Liberals said the existing legislation didn’t provide adequate environmental protections and that was why projects were getting stalled in the courts.

  A 2019 study by the C.D. Howe Institute said that announcements of new energy and mining projects in Canada slowed after 2015. And between 2017 and 2018, the planned investment value of major resource sector projects went down by $100 billion, equivalent to 4.5 percent of Canada’s GDP, the study said.

  “Many projects in Canada have faced environmental assessments that take much longer than in comparator jurisdictions: Canadian timelines for mining projects are substantially longer than in Australia, and Canadian pipeline approvals are protracted relative to those in the United States,” the study said.

  The infographic below shows some of the energy projects that have been cancelled in Canada for various reasons between 2015 and 2020, adding up to an estimated investment loss of over $175 billion. Also shown are the three major pipeline projects: Keystone XL, the Trans Mountain expansion, and Enbridge’s Line 3.

  In many cases, the cancellation of energy projects has had the impact of reducing market access for Canadian oil and gas exports. In the case of the Energy East pipeline, which was to deliver crude oil from Western Canada to Eastern Canada, the cancellation meant more reliance on foreign imported oil for Eastern Canada, more oil exported from Western Canada to the United States at a discount, and more use of other means of transportation to move the oil.

  In 2019, Canada exported 3.8 million barrels of crude oil per day, with 3.7 million barrels per day of those exports going to the United States. That amounted to 98 percent of all Canadian crude oil exports, with Canada supplying 48 percent of the total U.S. crude oil imports. That year, Canada imported 0.8 million barrels of crude oil per day, with those imports primarily coming from the United States (79 percent), followed by Saudi Arabia (12 percent) and Russia (2 percent).

  

  Click to enlarge

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 01/14/2025 – 20:05

• Biden Throws Cuban Curve Ball Days Before Trump Enters White House
  Biden Throws Cuban Curve Ball Days Before Trump Enters White House

  In yet another curveball thrown by the Biden administration just days before President-elect Trump is to enter the Oval Office, Washington is removing Cuba from the state sponsor of terrorism list.

  “An assessment has been completed and we do not have information that supports Cuba’s designation as being a state sponsor of terrorism,” a Biden official said Tuesday. The removal comes in the context of an initiative by the Roman Catholic Church to secure the release of political prisoners.

  However it’s not being welcomed by the Trump administration and Republicans, and is expected to be reversed soon after Trump takes office. 

  

  This Catholic Church-mediated deal will see “many dozens”” of political prisoners and others deemed by the US to be unjustly detained will be released as a result. The release is set to come on the very last day of the Biden administration—at noon on Jan. 20.

  “In taking these steps to bolster the ongoing dialogue between the government of Cuba and the Catholic Church, President Biden is also honoring the wisdom and counsel that has been provided to him by many world leaders, especially in Latin America, who have encouraged him to take these actions, on how best to advance the human rights of the Cuban people,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre announced in a statement.

  Other “good will” actions are expected to be included in the policy change. The Latin American island nation has been under full US embargo going back to the Kennedy administration in the 1960s and at the height of the Cold War, and since then Cuba lost an estimated $130 billion over the sixty years that followed, according to some studies.

  Since the 2000s Cuba policy has been a matter of tug-of-war between alternating Republican and Democratic administrations. Obama sought to improve relations, a policy continued lately with Biden. Obama eased restrictions on travel and remittances for Cuba from the first year he entered office, in 2009.

  And then in 2014 Obama and Raúl Castro announced the restoration of full diplomatic relations amid a continued thaw. By 2015 Cuba was removed from the terrorism list the first time around, and Cuba and the US reopened their respective embassies. The next year Obama became the first sitting US president in nearly ninety years to visit Cuba and meet with government leaders.

  But it was Trump who in his first term reversed many of these policies, eventually returning Cuba to the state sponsors of terrorism list. This was also under Secretary of State Mike Pompeo:

  The U.S. State Department returns Cuba to its list of state sponsors of terrorism, reversing another Obama-era step toward normalization, as Trump prepares to leave office. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo cites Cuba’s harboring of U.S. fugitives and Colombian rebels, as well as its support for Venezuela’s regime.

  Trump’s incoming Secretary of State-designate Marco Rubio is expected to return to taking a hardline approach to both Cuba and Venezuela, akin to the position of Trump’s first administration.

  Imagine the courage it took to lift this extra layer of the economic strangulation of Cuba just days before leaving office – just so Trump and Marco Rubio can re-impose it hours after inauguration https://t.co/hzDSZttg3R

  — Max Blumenthal (@MaxBlumenthal) January 14, 2025

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Some Democrats, chiefly in Florida, have blasted Biden’s removal of Cuba from the terrorism list as “naïve”.

  “While any return of political prisoners from the clutches of Communist Cuba is cause for celebration, the regime’s treatment of the Cuban people continues to be one of the biggest human rights violations of the last century,” Florida Democratic Chair Nikki Fried said Tuesday.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 01/14/2025 – 19:40

• FBI, DHS Warn Of New Orleans-Style Vehicle Ramming Attacks By Copycat Terrorists
  FBI, DHS Warn Of New Orleans-Style Vehicle Ramming Attacks By Copycat Terrorists

  Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

  The FBI and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) have issued a public warning, raising concerns about potential copycat vehicle ramming attacks like the New Year’s Day incident in New Orleans that left 14 dead and dozens injured.

  “The FBI and DHS are concerned about possible copycat or retaliatory attacks due to the persistent appeal of vehicle ramming as a tactic for aspiring violent extremist attackers,” the agencies noted in a joint alert issued on Jan. 13.

  The New Orleans attack, reportedly motivated by ISIS propaganda, involved a vehicle plowing into a crowd. The suspect, Shamsud-Din Jabbar, then exited the vehicle and was killed by police in an exchange of gunfire.

  

  Similar attacks are particularly concerning due to their simplicity and the accessibility of vehicles that can be rented, stolen, or owned outright, the agencies noted in the alert. Besides using the vehicle itself as a weapon, suspects in similar attacks have used other means to inflict more carnage.

  “Some have used additional weapons, such as firearms and knives, to attack individuals after the vehicle has stopped,” the FBI and DHS noted.

  “Additionally, attackers may attempt to conceal and pre-position improvised explosive devices (IEDs) to supplement a vehicle attack.”

  The suspect in the New Orleans incident had additional weapons—including an IED—in the Ford F-150 Lightning pickup truck that he used to mow people down along a three-block path along Bourbon Street. About an hour before the attack, Jabbar put homemade bombs inside two coolers and placed them elsewhere in the French Quarter, a part of town teeming with New Year’s revelers. Law enforcement officials have said that the two IEDs planted by the suspect failed to go off because he used the wrong device to detonate them.

  In their warning about potential copycats, the FBI and DHS noted that targets for such attacks typically include large gatherings of civilians, law enforcement, and military personnel, and heavily trafficked venues such as festivals, shopping centers, and places of worship. With the potential for widespread destruction and loss of life, the agencies urged heightened vigilance.

  “The FBI and DHS urge bystanders to promptly report suspicious activities potentially related to violent extremist activity, including indications of possible online radicalization to violence and mobilization for attacks,” the alert reads.

  The notice also highlighted resources available to law enforcement, first responders, and community leaders aimed at reducing vulnerabilities to such attacks. These include training materials and best practices for identifying threats and enhancing security protocols in public spaces.

  Initially, officials believed that Jabbar may have had accomplices in orchestrating the deadly New Orleans attack. In the course of the investigation, however, they determined that he acted on his own in a “lone wolf” type attack.

  The warning was issued on the same day the FBI said there were no known threats to the Jan. 20 inauguration ceremony in Washington, at which President-elect Donald Trump will be sworn into office.

  Trump faced two attempts on his life during his presidential campaign, including one where a would-be assassin’s bullet grazed his ear during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. In the second incident, a gunman laid in wait at the Trump International Golf Course at West Palm Beach, and fled without firing his weapon after a Secret Service agent spotted the barrel of his firearm and fired several shots in his direction.

  William McCool, Secret Service’s special agent in charge, said during a Jan. 13 press conference that roughly 25,000 law enforcement and military officials will be onsite to ensure security on Inauguration Day.

  “We have a slightly more robust security plan. We’ve been planning for this event for 12 months,” McCool said. “All attendees will undergo screening. Designated checkpoints will be set up for members of the public interested in attending the inauguration.”

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 01/14/2025 – 19:15

• Wildfire Woes: California Regulators Halted Palisades Fire Prevention Project to Save Rare Shrub
  Wildfire Woes: California Regulators Halted Palisades Fire Prevention Project to Save Rare Shrub

  California’s eco-regulators halted a critical wildfire prevention project near Pacific Palisades to protect an endangered shrub – only for that same area to be engulfed in flames during the Palisades Fire, the most destructive blaze in Los Angeles history.

  

  In 2019, the LA Department of Water and Power (LADWP) set out to replace aging wooden power poles – some nearly a century old – with fire-resistant steel poles and widen fire-access lanes in the wildfire-prone Topanga State Park. The $2 million project was designed to bolster fire safety after the area was deemed an “elevated fire risk.”

  “This project will help ensure power reliability and safety, while helping reduce wildfire threats,” the LADWP stated at the time, the NY Post reports.

  But the effort came to an abrupt halt when an amateur botanist hiking through the park noticed that some of the rare Braunton’s milkvetch shrubs – an endangered species with only a few thousand wild specimens – had been damaged during the work. Conservationists raised alarms, accusing the city of working without proper permits, and California’s Coastal Commission ordered the LADWP to stop the project, replant the damaged shrubs, and pay $2 million in fines.

  Fast forward to 2024: Nearly 24,000 acres – including much of Topanga Canyon – have gone up in smoke, taking with them not only homes and wildlife but the same shrubs the project was supposed to protect.

  The Palisades Fire has destroyed 12,000 homes, businesses, schools and other structures – and has claimed at least 24 lives, and left thousands displaced. Meanwhile, firefighters struggled with low water pressure and empty hydrants as they battled the inferno.

  

  The controversy over conservation versus fire prevention has reignited fierce debates. Critics point out that key reservoirs, such as the Santa Ynez Reservoir—capable of holding 117 million gallons—were bone-dry when the fire erupted. Despite assurances from Governor Gavin Newsom that Southern California reservoirs were “completely full,” the empty reservoir has become a focal point of frustration.

  Newsom has since launched an investigation into the reservoir’s failure, but the timing has done little to quell criticism.

  A Growing Political Firestorm

  President-elect Donald Trump seized on the disaster to criticize Newsom’s handling of wildfire prevention. Trump blasted the governor’s conservation policies, accusing him of prioritizing “worthless” wildlife over human lives.

  “He wanted to protect an essentially worthless fish called a smelt … but didn’t care about the people of California,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, referring to the delta smelt, a near-extinct fish that has become a symbol of California’s ongoing water wars.

  The feud between Trump and Newsom dates back to 2020 when Newsom sued to block Trump’s federal order to divert Northern California water to Southern California reservoirs, citing concerns for endangered species. The delta smelt’s near-extinction has fueled arguments from both sides: environmentalists decry the ecological loss, while critics say conservation efforts have yielded little but regulatory red tape.

  Environmentalists defending the Braunton’s milkvetch argue that wildfires can help the plant sprout from dormant seeds, creating an opportunity for the shrub to regrow. However, critics see the loss of homes and lives as a stark reminder of the cost of bureaucracy.

  Despite promises to prioritize fire prevention, the Pacific Palisades area remains a cautionary tale of what happens when disaster preparedness collides with environmental red tape. Neither the LADWP nor the California Coastal Commission has responded to requests for comment, leaving residents wondering if the very policies meant to protect them helped fan the flames.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 01/14/2025 – 18:50

• 2025: The Year The Federal Debt Bubble Bursts
  2025: The Year The Federal Debt Bubble Bursts

  Authored by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,

  I expect 2025 to be a year of profound transformation, where old paradigms are rendered obsolete.

  

  While nothing is certain, I think we can count on radical changes in 2025.

  Navigating new paradigms in finance, geopolitics, and energy will be crucial for investors.

  A primary focus in my research is to put together the pieces to reveal the true Big Picture and get positioned in unstoppable investment trends ahead of the crowd with smart speculations.

  I’m more interested in getting the Big Picture right than gambling on short-term trades in rigged markets.

  Understanding the Big Picture has always been essential. But given the scale of changes looming, I can’t think of another year in living memory where it will be more critical than in 2025.

  Of particular importance is the US governments financial situation, which has been gradually deteriorating for decades. It’s not surprising that many people are complacent. They’ve long heard about the debt problem, and nothing has happened.

  However, I think there’s an excellent chance that 2025 could be the year we see a paradigm shift, shattering conventional mental and financial models for the federal debt.

  A crucial tipping point was reached in 2024 when the interest expense on the federal debt exceeded the defense budget for the first time. It’s on track to exceed Social Security and become the BIGGEST item in the federal budget.

  

  Historian Niall Ferguson summed it up nicely:

  “Any great power that spends more on debt service (interest payments on the national debt) than on defense will not stay great for very long.

  True of Habsburg Spain, true of ancien régime France, true of the Ottoman Empire, true of the British Empire, this law is about to be put to the test by the US beginning this very year.”

  The US government will soon have to choose to:

  1. Cut defense spending amid the most chaotic geopolitical period since WW2.

  2. Default on its promises regarding Social Security, Medicare, Veterans’ Benefits, and welfare generally.

  Though it may try, the US government cannot continue to pay for entitlements and defense even if their current levels stay flat into the future. But they won’t stay flat. Both are set to grow significantly in the years ahead.

  Tens of millions of Baby Boomers—about 22% of the population—will enter retirement in the coming years. Cutting Social Security and Medicare is a sure way to lose an election.

  With the most precarious geopolitical situation since World War 2, defense spending is unlikely to be cut. Instead, defense spending is all but certain to increase.

  Former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates recently said: “Barely staying even with inflation or worse is wholly inadequate. Significant additional resources for defense are necessary and urgent.”

  In short, efforts to reduce expenditures will be meaningless unless it becomes politically acceptable to make chainsaw-like cuts to entitlements, national defense, and welfare while reducing the national debt to lower the interest cost.

  In other words, the US would need a leader who—at a minimum—returns the federal government to a limited Constitutional Republic, closes the 128 military bases abroad, ends entitlements, kills the welfare state, and repays a large portion of the national debt.

  However, that’s a completely unrealistic fantasy. It would be foolish to bet on that happening.

  That’s why Elon Musk and DOGE are being set up for failure.

  The Bottom Line

  The government cannot even slow the spending growth rate, let alone cut it.

  Expenditures have nowhere to go but up—way up.

  The most likely outcome is that the US will try to have its cake and eat it too by paying for both growing defense and domestic obligations via currency debasement.

  That’s why I’m confident that ever-increasing currency debasement is the inevitable outcome of the US government’s debt spiral.

  It’s a self-perpetuating doom loop from which they cannot escape.

  It’s like being on a runaway train with no brakes.

  I suspect 2025 will be the year this becomes evident as previous mainstream conceptions about the national debt collapse.

  • “We owe it to ourselves.”

  • “Deficits don’t matter.”

  • “Treasuries are risk-free return.”

  • “The national debt is sustainable as long as we can print money.”

  • “The US will never default.”

  These have long been ridiculous tropes that many investors believed.

  2025 could be the year the people who believe this nonsense receive a harsh reality check.

  As this trend unfolds, I expect the rate of debasement will far exceed the nominal yield that Treasuries and most other bonds will offer.

  That means people will look for alternatives to park their savings to preserve their purchasing power.

  Instead of parking their savings in Treasuries, I believe people, companies, and countries will increasingly park their savings in gold. It’s already happening in a big way.

  While this megatrend is already well underway, I believe the most significant gains in precious metals are still ahead.

  

  Holding physical gold bullion in a private non-bank vault in a wealth-friendly jurisdiction like Singapore, Switzerland, or the Cayman Islands is a good idea.

  That’s why I just released an urgent new PDF report with all the details. Click here to download it now.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 01/14/2025 – 18:25

• Thousands Of South Korean Police Attempt To Raid President Yoon's Residence: Who's In Charge?
  Thousands Of South Korean Police Attempt To Raid President Yoon’s Residence: Who’s In Charge?

  There is a standoff going on outside the presidential residence in Seoul as police seek to execute a warrant to arrest South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol. 

  The standoff has ensued all day, also attracting crowds of protesters, in what began as a huge security operation in the predawn hours of Wednesday (local time). This is the second, and biggest, time an attempt has been made to arrest the sitting president.

  

  It all stems from last month’s botched attempt by the president to impose martial law, after which lawmakers impeached him over potential insurrection. 

  The Washington Post reports, “In extraordinary scenes that unfolded in the early hours of Wednesday morning, rows of police buses blocked the main road outside the presidential residence in one of Seoul’s ritziest neighborhoods, stopping traffic and forcing city buses and delivery vehicles to turn around.”

  “Throngs of Yoon’s supporters — 6,500 of them, according to a police estimate — gathered outside the residence in an apparent effort to stymie the operation. Some had been camping on the street outside his residence for days,” the report continues.

  Yonhap News Agency says that some 3,000 police are involved in the operation. Other reports say that it’s at least 1,000 officers. The efforts to raid the presidential residence have been stymied as lawmakers from Yoon’s conservative People Power Party have made a big showing, at one point forming a human chain to block police from entering.

  According to the latest BBC update, “Right now, the police seem to be pushing into the residence – entering from multiple points.” Authorities are also trying to breach the back of the compound.

  Predawn scene outside Yoon’s residence:

  Attempted arrest of Yoon reportedly underway, with over 1,000 officers mobilized

  Protesters have gathered in front of the presidential residence to block it https://t.co/kkbwllzqdS pic.twitter.com/fGs8uxJ0wA

  — RT (@RT_com) January 14, 2025

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  There is a clearly a Constitutional crisis unfolding as the courts and Yeol – along with loyalist lawmakers – are clashing over who exactly is still in charge of government:

  This is a picture of the political crisis that South Korea finds itself in.

  You’ve got two branches of executive power: the police – essentially law enforcement officers that have a legal arrest warrant that they’re trying to execute – and presidential security staff, who are blocking them.

  This raises the question of who exactly is in charge.

  The Corruption Investigation Office (CIO), which is heading up the police raid, argues that it has the legal right to make an arrest, while the People Power Party has declared the operation to be unlawful.

  “Stop the Steal” signs have been spotted amid the chaos:

  More and more protesters are gathering near the presidential residence in South Korea in an attempt to stop 2000+ police officers trying to arrest President Yoon.

  The president is protected by a military unit of around 200 soldiers.

  The Stop the Steal movement is growing 🇰🇷 pic.twitter.com/nPQdIaR0Op

  — Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) January 14, 2025

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  BBC has issued the following timeline of the tumultuous events leading up to the standoff at the presidential residence as follows:

  • 3 December: President Yoon declared martial law, plunging South Korea into political chaos – hours later he was forced to back down as furious protestors and lawmakers gathered outside the National Assembly. He then apologised for his actions and said they would not be repeated
  • 7 December: Opposition MPs tried, but failed, to impeach Yoon having fallen a handful of votes short

  • 14 December: Yoon was suspended from office after another vote saw lawmakers vote to impeach him, however the president can only be removed from office if the decision is upheld by the country’s constitutional court
  • 31 December: A court in South Korea issued an arrest warrant for Yoon
  • 3 January: Dozens of investigators attempted to arrest him but subsequently gave up after a six-hour stand off with the Presidential Security Service (PSS) outside his official residence
  • 14 January: South Korea’s Constitutional Court held its first hearing to decide if the suspended president should be removed from office – the hearing ended in just four minutes because of Yoon’s absence and the next trial is scheduled for Thursday

  Scenes outside/near Yoon’s residence pic.twitter.com/HYCdUZRsW8

  — Raphael Rashid (@koryodynasty) January 14, 2025

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Despite the country’s top court having issued a warrant, he has not responded to any court summons, and investigators have been unable to reach Yoon.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 01/14/2025 – 18:00

• DoD Had Its Most Spendy Month Since The Bush Era
  DoD Had Its Most Spendy Month Since The Bush Era

  Via Open The Books,

  The Department of Defense spent $79.1 billion on contracts and grants in September 2024, making it the military’s most expensive month for such purchases since 2008.

  Not since George W. Bush was president has the military funneled so much cash out the door so quickly.

  

  The dollar total includes $33.1 billion spent in the last five working days of September, which was 7% of the Pentagon’s contract and grant spending for all of fiscal year 2024. Only 11 other countries typically spend that much on their entire military in a full year.

  On Friday, Sept. 27 alone, the DoD spent $11.7 billion on contracts and grants.

  Federal agencies typically go on spending sprees at the end of the fiscal year, likely due to “use-it-or-lose-it” funding rules. They’re worried that spending less than their budget allows will cause Congress to give them less money the following year.

  The largest expenses were in line with expectations, including $3 billion spent on ammunition and $7.9 billion spent on aircraft.

  Others were a bit more surprising.

  The military spent $103.7 million on meat, fish and poultry in September, partially because they ordered raw lobster tail 147 times for $6.1 million. They also dropped $16.6 million on ribeye steak, $6.4 million on salmon and $407,000 on Alaskan king crab.

  Another $81.1 million went towards fruits and veggies. Blueberries were the most popular, with three orders each exceeding $100,000. There was no grape juice; maybe there’s still some left from the DoD’s $586,000 purchase in September 2023.

  Not all the groceries were as healthy. The DoD ordered ice cream 79 times for $113,230 and spent $117,787 on fresh doughnuts.

  The military also spent $1.2 million on musical instruments of over a dozen varieties, including $12,480 for “piano tuning.”

  Other spending highlights from September 2024 include:

  • At least $5.1 million on Apple products, including 130 iPhone 16 Pro Max devices

  • $16.3 million on cartons, crates and tool boxes

  • $211.7 million on new furniture and its installation

  • $24.4 million on books, pamphlets and newspapers

  • $36,000 on footrests

  There were 19,043 different companies that received Pentagon contracts last September, but 31% of the money went to just 10 vendors. Lockheed Martin received $9.4 billion, almost twice as much as any other entity.

  

  The vast majority of spending went to American businesses, but the DoD still sent nearly $2 billion to foreign companies last September.

  Germany led the way with $481.5 million. The Pentagon is helping the chemicals company AlzChem Group build a plant in America to produce nitroguanidine, a substance found in gunpowder and other explosives, which accounted for $150 million.

  The fourth-largest foreign purchase was $55.1 million worth of explosives from Canada, which the Pentagon sent to Ukraine. The DoD did the same thing the previous September – at a cost of $181.8 million

  Saudi Arabian companies got $4.6 million and Qatar received $2.6 million.

  Thankfully there were no foreign parking tickets this year, after the Navy paid a $7,136 ticket from Tokyo’s Haneda Airport in September 2023.

  

  September has been the DoD’s most expensive month almost every year since at least 2008. The only exception was 2020, when the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in March increased expenses.

  The DoD spent $455.2 billion on contracts in grants in fiscal year 2024 overall, which was 52% of its total budget.

  Earlier this year, news broke that the Pentagon had failed its seventh consecutive audit, while the National Defense Authorization Act Requires them to achieve a clean audit by 2028.

  According to a report by DoD Inspector General Robert Storch, “many of its identified weaknesses have not improved since 2005…achieving a clean audit does not rest solely in the hands of financial management professionals, but encompasses the entirety of processes and systems that track the accountability and use of DoD assets.”

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 01/14/2025 – 17:40

• Fortress DC: Trump's Inauguration Braces For The Worst With Troops, Drones, And Fences
  Fortress DC: Trump’s Inauguration Braces For The Worst With Troops, Drones, And Fences

  President-elect Donald Trump’s second inauguration could be the most militarized in U.S. history, according to a report released Monday.

  

  Citing U.S. officials, The Telegraph reports that nearly 7,800 soldiers will join approximately police officers to patrol Washington, DC during the “peaceful transfer of power.” The newspaper also reveals that two FBI field offices, a swarm of drones, and at least 30 miles of fencing will be used to keep Trump and inauguration guests— including world leaders and top U.S. lawmakers from across the country—safe from a series of potential violent threats. Despite receiving no specific threats targeting Trump, law enforcement officials are “prepared” for the worst, according to the outlet.

  Additionally, National Guard members from all 50 states will operate checkpoints, where inauguration observers will enter the National Mall in front of the Capitol building, while the federal government will enact a no-fly zone over D.C. A host of items have been barred from the inauguration area, including laptops, water bottles, and even selfie sticks.

  Tensions will no doubt be running high during Trump’s swearing-in, as a coalition of left-wing organizations, including Planned Parenthood and Abortion Access Now, are set to hold a so-called “People’s March” on Saturday to protest Trump’s landslide win over his Democrat opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris.

  Officials moved to increase security for Trump’s inauguration following the ISIS-inspired terror attack on January 1 in New Orleans, which saw 14 people killed and 35 injured. U.S. Secret Service assistant special agent Matthew Young said following the attack that the agency “adjusts our security plans as needed.”

  “[W]e’re flexible and adaptable…we’re going to be prepared,” he added.

  D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser has also vowed to keep the area secure for the peaceful transfer.

  “We take pride in this responsibility, and we’re grateful to our federal partners, local agencies, and community members who work together to ensure a safe and secure event,” Bowser said.

  The Secret Service has been the subject of intense scrutiny after a gunman attempted to assassinate Trump during a rally in Butler County, Pennsylvania, in July. US Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle resigned in wake of the shooting amid scrutiny of security lapses related to the assassination attempt. Cheatle, while testifying before Congress regarding the shooting, admitted that there were “significant” and “colossal” issues with the security at the rally.

  Two months later, another gunman allegedly sought to kill the president-elect at Trump International Golf Club in Palm Beach, Florida. 

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 01/14/2025 – 17:20

• Melania Trump Says Transition To White House 'Very Different' This Time
  Melania Trump Says Transition To White House ‘Very Different’ This Time

  Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Incoming First Lady Melania Trump said in an interview that aired on Jan. 13 that the transition to the White House this time is different from the period following her husband’s first election victory.

  

  “The difference is I know where I will be going. I know the rooms where we will be living. I know the process,” Melania Trump, 54, said in an interview aired by Fox & Friends. “The first time was challenging, we didn’t have much of the information.”

  The incoming first lady said that everything is already packed, and she has selected the furniture that will be installed once President Joe Biden, First Lady Jill Biden, and their family vacate the White House on Jan. 20. In a space of just five hours, transition staffers will move the Bidens out and move the Trumps in.

  Melania Trump said she will spend most of her time in the White House, although there will be days when she needs to be in New York, or Palm Beach, Florida.

  Barron Trump, the 19-year-old son of Melania Trump and the president-elect, who lived at the White House in the first term, will visit the White House in the upcoming four years, she said. Barron Trump is preparing to take classes at New York University.

  Melania Trump said that her 2024 memoir has drawn scores of responses from fans, who wanted to hear more from her. That prompted a new film project that started shooting in November of that year. The movie will show her day-to-day life, including her preparation for returning to the White House, she said.

  She said on Fox that she is looking forward to being first lady again.

  “I think it will be an exciting four years. We have a lot to do, to put the country back in shape,” she said.

  Melania Trump is still hiring for her team. She plans to leave a few positions open until after the Trumps move back into the White House.

  “I don’t want to hire too many people on my team and spend too much taxpayer money. I want to make sure that every position, they are talented, they have merit, they know what they are doing, and … they are team players. They don’t have their own agenda. They’re serving me, they’re serving my office, and they’re serving the country.”

  She said she would continue her “Be Best” campaign, which she started when she was first lady from 2017 through 2021. “Be Best” focuses on youth mental health, including protecting children against cyberbullying.

  The incoming first lady said that she has also seen a change in how people treat her.

  “I feel I was always me the first time … I just feel that people didn’t accept me, maybe. They didn’t understand me the way maybe they do now. And I didn’t have much support,” she said. “Maybe some people see me as just a wife of the president, but I’m standing on my own two feet, independent. I have my own thoughts, I have my own ‘yes’ and ‘no.’”

  Melania Trump said she does not always agree with what her husband is doing or saying. She gives her husband some advice, she said.

  “Sometimes he listens, and sometimes he doesn’t, and that’s OK,” she said.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 01/14/2025 – 17:00

• The Great Agave Bust Unfolds As Tequila Oversupply Worsens
  The Great Agave Bust Unfolds As Tequila Oversupply Worsens

  Tequila inventories in Mexico have surged past half a billion liters, approaching the country’s annual production levels, as demand slows in key markets like the US. The oversupply crisis has translated into the second bust cycle for agave prices since the Dot Com crash 25 years ago.

  Mexico’s Tequila Regulatory Council shared data with Financial Times that showed the industry had 525 million liters of tequila in inventory, either aging in barrels or about to be bottled, by the end of 2023. Of the 599 million liters of tequila produced in 2023, about one-sixth remained in inventory. 

  “Much more new spirit is being distilled than is being sold, and inventories are starting to accumulate,” Bernstein analyst Trevor Stirling wrote in a note. He said rising inventory levels were due to sliding demand and new distillery capacity coming online. 

  Stirling warned: “The tequila industry is set for a very turbulent 2025.”

  Tequila Regulatory Council president Ramón González said, “There is oversupply at the moment of several times what the industry needs, and probably some of these plantations won’t be sold looking at the industry numbers.” 

  The oversupply conditions come as demand has been sliding for the past 18 months. The Covid pandemic boom in spirits has mostly faded due to cash-strapped consumers no longer being able to afford premium spirits. 

  On Tuesday, Goldman’s Olivier Nicolaï pointed out to clients that oversupply conditions will likely boost promotional activity at the liquor store.

  Demand slides… 

  

  Nicolaï said the price of agave had crashed 73% from its 2022 peak – a similar plunge seen 25 years ago during the Dot Com bust. 

  

  The good news is that tequila consumption jumped before and after the US presidential election following a multi-year slump.

  

  The Bernstein and Goldman analysts both expect top tequila brands, such as Patrón and Casamigos, will ramp up promotions to counter weaker demand. This is great news for consumers.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 01/14/2025 – 16:40

• Dear Democrats: This Time, You Can't Blame The Republicans
  Dear Democrats: This Time, You Can’t Blame The Republicans

  Authored by Sasha Stone via ‘Free Thinking Through The Fourth Turning’ substack,

  Six years ago on Medium, I wrote the following:

  The Republicans have systematically turned climate change into a partisan issue, you know, like abortion, and have done so to manipulate their gullible electorate into believing the lie that there is no such thing as man-made climate change. They spew the dumbo rhetoric any time they can, that “oh the weather changes all the time.” Or “I don’t believe climate change is real — even if the planet is warming, it isn’t our fault.”

  Yeah, it is. You dig up fossil fuels and you burn them, that warms the planet. They were buried for millions of years which, in turn, cooled the planet, making it an ideal atmosphere for all kinds of different forms of life, including us. What’s coming next is uncharted territory for humanity. We have no idea how bad it’s going to get. We just know it WILL be bad.

  I was not only furious with rage, but I was quick to blame the other side for deliberately sabotaging our noble efforts to stop the warming of the planet, as though we ourselves were not contributing to it. We acted like we could buy a hybrid here, go vegan there, recycle our plastic, and be absolved from contributing to this existential crisis we all now must face.

  It isn’t that I don’t believe the planet is warming, or that sea level won’t rise, or that it is directly the fault of so many people on the planet.

  What has changed is that I no longer blame the other side, and I no longer see my former side as the good guys in the fight.

  No, I see them as hypocrites. I was a hypocrite too.

  

  I’d been in a bubble for much of my adult life because I lived online, in virtual spaces. Yes, I was raising my daughter in public schools, but those were a bubble too. We all belonged inside the same utopia. We read the same articles. We watched the same news. Our worries were the same worries. We spoke the same language, and all of us shared the belief that the biggest threat we faced was climate change and that the biggest obstacle we faced was the Republicans.

  And then, my daughter moved across the country, and I got a couple of dogs. Rather than fly and leave my dogs at home, I began driving across the country. Those drives changed everything for me, not just how I saw climate change but how I saw my fellow Americans. This was how people actually lived, not how we did, inside our haze of paper straws and cotton diapers.

  I saw the trucks driving on the interstates to deliver food and goods, the many hotels that require air conditioning and heating, the slaughterhouse trucks providing food for so many in this country, and the tiny houses in the middle of the desert with one embattled air conditioner sticking out of the window.

  Looking at all of this, all of these places, and all of these businesses, it was easy to see that there was no turning this thing around. There is no way to convince every state and citizen to hop aboard what is an existential crisis for the upper class. Life just isn’t like that.

  Everyone wants things that work, cars that run, planes that fly. They want washing machines, dishwashers, flat-screen TVs, office buildings, emergency rooms, and new computers and tech support lines, to buy groceries they can afford, to get fruit in the middle of winter, to watch movies and doom scroll social media — and “every Tweet warms the planet,” as Roy Scranton once wrote.

  Even if we could convince every single American to accept our fixes, what would we do about Russia, India, or China? We seemed to have gone all in on fantasy but we’re disconnected from reality.

  What we believe on the Left, or at least we used to, was climate change was Armageddon, doomsday, the end of everything. Therefore, what mattered to us isn’t so much that we solve the problems to survive climate change, but that we convert everyone else to our way of thinking. If we could do that, we believed, we could start making the big changes to our country and world.

  The Left is still haunted by the ghosts of the past, back when we really did have the power and the opportunity to make real change. We squandered that power, and then we blamed the other side. In so doing, we could wash our hands of real solutions, whether it was gun violence, poverty, failing schools, floods, fires, or hurricanes.

  And now, in the perfect cocktail of high Santa Ana winds, no rain for months, and a city caught off guard, the fires rampaged through the beaches of the Pacific Palisades and Malibu and the mountains of Altadena and continue to burn.

  There were rumors of not enough water, not enough firefighters, and no way to control the speed of the flames as they ripped through the dry brush, burning one house after another as we watched the tragedy unfold on live television or YouTube.

  This time, the narrative swirled around California’s governor, Gavin Newsom, and the Los Angeles Mayor, Karen Bass, newly elected in 2022 as the first female and second Black person to serve. Bass had left the country in January, known as the last month of the Santa Ana cycle that comes every Fall.

  From the University of California:

  The region sees about 10 Santa Ana wind events a year on average, typically occurring from fall into January. When conditions are dry, as they are right now, these winds can become a severe fire hazard.

  Because she was out of the country, she could not address the city’s immediate needs. The scene was pure chaos, with the firefighters risking life and limb to keep the flames away from homes and neighborhoods. Everything burned. The Humane Society was overwhelmed. Whole histories of places and families were wiped clean, flattened by a force of wind we were not prepared for.

  But why weren’t we prepared? We’ve been warning about this very thing happening for decades. Did we really mean it, or was it just a way to gain more donations and political power, and none of it was real? Well, just as the unsinkable ship did sink, the big fire did come, and the progressive Left was exposed for ineffectual leadership yet again.

  And as the power went out, no one really tied it together as they screamed about climate change – power, we need it. We need it for everything. We need so much of it. Only fossil fuels will suffice unless we go nuclear, and that, too, was a problem for the Left.

  

  But why, Mayor Bass? Why doesn’t the most wealthy state not have enough firefighters? Why were we caught with our pants down?

  Don’t politicize this tragedy from the people who politicize not only every tragedy but also everything else—our culture, schools, relationships, language, food, friendships.

  Nothing is not political on the Left.

  What do we have to show for it? Nothing. We have an industry devoted to absolving the rich of their sins of wealth—DEI and hybrid SUVs. We have actors like Leonardo DiCaprio broadcasting their concerns on Instagram. We have film directors like Jim Cameron and Adam McKay saying, “I told you so,” and we’re supposed to do what? Keep listening to them as our leaders fiddle while LA burns?

  Adam McKay’s carbon footprint came secondary to making his climate film, Don’t Look Up, one of the worst movies ever made, starring every sanctimonious, unbearable celebrity known to man. I watched that movie and thought about the energy it took to make it, screen it, and stream it. The energy it took to mount the Oscar ceremony, the private jets to fly the stars around. What hypocrites, I thought, even back then as a Democrat.

  Here is a scene from Don’t Look Up:

  

  

  Right, Adam, sure thing. So just give me an approximate estimate of the plan here. To keep making movies starring Jennifer Lawrence? To keep tweeting? Or is there some solution you have to offer? In the movie Jaws, they don’t waste time shaming everyone on the boat and telling them how dangerous the shark is. They try everything, every tool they have at their disposal, even the ineffectual shark cage.

  What have the Democrats done instead of killing the shark? Well, let’s look at the year that Don’t Look Up was released. 2020. Remember that year, Adam? Remember the Great Awokening? Remember what happened after that?

  Suddenly, climate change only mattered if they could somehow tie it into social justice. “Climate change is transphobia” might have worked.

  Do you think I’m kidding? A quick google search and look at what pops up:

  

  Says Google’s AI:

  

  But why stop there? Let’s go all the way, shall we?

  

  

  They’ve already found their pivot:

  

  All I’ve heard from the Left is blaming the Republicans year after year, decade after decade. But when the Republicans try to suggest ways to manage the coming fires and storms, what do we get? More purity tests, more conversion therapy, believe what we believe. But solutions? Nowhere in sight.

  How can we face ourselves if this has been our message for over 20 years now and yet they’re still trying to explain away the fire hydrants not having enough water or having to fly in firefighters from Mexico or Canada.

  And what of the young? Full of hopelessness and anxiety about the future because they’ve been told the planet is ruined and doomsday is coming. Why bother having kids, they have been convinced to believe. And there’s nothing we can do about it because those mean old climate deniers on the Right won’t let us, so sorry kids, you’re just going to have to live with it.

  The buck has to stop somewhere, and in Los Angeles, this was a massive failure of leadership across the board.

  Here is Chamath Palihapitiya:

  I’m guessing nothing much will change in California because what would happen if they decided to stop blaming Republicans and start listening to them? What would happen if they started doing the controlled burns they didn’t want to do? Or following Trump’s warnings and advice about dealing with the hard realities of actually preventing wildfires?

  Just as in the movie Jaws when Quint’s harpoons didn’t work and Hooper’s shark cage didn’t work, they had just to bring in the city cop to get the job done. And that is why God invented Republicans.

  We’re finished with excuses by now. We’re done with the blame game and the sanctimonious lectures. It’s too late to turn things around in the ways the utopian Left dreams about. Now is the time to find ways for all of us to survive the coming storms and wildfires. We need to face the hard realities of this being our new normal.

  

  Those who have fled the Left to join MAGA understand this, which is why so many of us voted for them. We know only one side has the right tools to get the dirty job done and kill the shark, whether you believe climate change is real or you don’t. Something is happening, and we need people prepared to stop blaming the other side and start rolling up their sleeves.

  So yes, do politicize this tragedy because there is no excuse for the most progressive government in the country to have gotten it so wrong.

  I love my state. I grew up here. I may never leave. We will rebuild. When I grew up, California was a red state.

  Something tells me that with all of the red pills flying off shelves, that might just be how this story ends.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 01/14/2025 – 16:20

• Buffett Is Worrying, Should You?
  Buffett Is Worrying, Should You?

  Via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

  Warren Buffett’s company, Berkshire Hathaway, has about $325 billion in cash, accounting for over a quarter of its portfolio – the highest percentage in over 30 years.

  The question begging an answer is, what is worrying Warren Buffett?

  We believe the answer is valuations.

  We have shared numerous charts over the last few months showing how valuations are on par or even higher than those of 1999 and 1929.

  Warren Buffett’s preferred market valuation metric is the ratio of the total stock market cap to GDP. The ratio stands at 230%, 2% below the level when the market peaked in 2021 and well above 175% in 1999.

  The foundation of this calculation is that earnings, thus ultimately asset values, are the result of economic activity. Therefore, a rising ratio potentially signals investors are expecting too much future earnings growth.

  We turn to our friends at Kalish Concepts and their recent paper- Market Cap To GDP- The Importance of Basic Arithmetic.

  The article shows that not all stocks are overpriced. In their words:

  This is a problem that is being driven almost entirely by the 50 largest stocks in the market

  Their first graph below shows the ratio of the market cap of just the largest 50 stocks to GDP.

  

  The ratio is well above 1999 and a good amount higher than late 2021.

  The second graph provides a slightly different context.

  

  Per Kalish:

  The line merely divides the 50 biggest stocks market cap to GDP by the overall market cap to GDP.

  This shows what percentage of the total market’s valuation is being driven by the 50 largest stocks.

  Out of 5,166 stocks, America’s 50 largest companies now account for nearly half the market’s total valuation – a record.

  The good news, per Kalish, is that there are plenty of stocks without high valuations offering a potential port in the proverbial storm when large-cap valuations correct. The biggest question, however, is when.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 01/14/2025 – 15:45

• Trump Affirms He'll Meet Putin 'Very Quickly' After Inauguration
  Trump Affirms He’ll Meet Putin ‘Very Quickly’ After Inauguration

  US President-elect Donald Trump has unveiled plans to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin “very quickly” after being sworn in on January 20, he said in a Monday interview. He was interviewed by conservative news outlet Newsmax and was asked about specifics on his strategy to end the Ukraine war, to which Trump replied “there is only one strategy, and it’s up to Putin.”

  Trump explained, “I can’t imagine he’s too thrilled with the way it’s gone, because it hasn’t gone exactly well for him either.”

  “I know he [Putin] wants to meet, and I’m going to meet very quickly,” the president-elect said. “I would have done it sooner, but… you have to get into the office.” These words came the day after Trump’s incoming national security adviser, Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.), told ABC News that “the preparations are underway” for a meeting between Trump and the Russian leader.

  

  “I do expect a call … at least in the coming days and weeks,” Waltz said. “So, that would be a step, and we’ll take it from there.”

  Various reports in the last weeks have made clear that meeting with Putin and seeking a breakthrough toward Ukraine peace is Trump’s biggest foreign policy priority at this point, though his eye is still on China as a top priority too:

  Trump noted at the time he’s had “a lot of communication” with Chinese President Xi Jinping and has spoken with numerous other world leaders. But he has yet to speak with Putin.

  “But President Putin wants to meet. He’s said that even publicly, and we have to get that war over with. That’s a bloody mess,” Trump said of the war in Ukraine.

  Kremlin statements issued in the past days have reaffirmed openness to such a meeting, “but that any concrete steps to set up such talks could be made only once Mr. Trump is sworn into office on Jan. 20,” The New York Times recently noted.

  “We need a mutual desire and political willingness to engage in a dialogue,” Putin spokesman Dmitri Peskov told reporters last Friday. “We see that Mr. Trump also declares his readiness to solve issues via dialogue. We welcome that.”

  Peskov added that Russia’s understanding is that there is a “mutual readiness for a meeting” but that “it looks like things will start to move after Trump enters the Oval Office.”

  Prior reporting on the ‘Trump peace plan’ suggests that the US side will offer Ukraine a twenty-year waiting period before it can hope to join NATO; however, Moscow has rejected even this possibility as a non-starter.

  Without doubt, Moscow sees itself in the driver’s seat – even as Ukraine tries to inflict as much damage as possible through drone and missile strikes on Russian territory. Russian forces have made weeks of rapid gains in the Donetsk, including having captured another key industrial town just this past week.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 01/14/2025 – 15:25

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