Oct 26

Today’s News 26th October 2024

  • The US Was Inadvertently Responsible For The Sino-Indo Border De-Escalation Deal
    The US Was Inadvertently Responsible For The Sino-Indo Border De-Escalation Deal

    Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

    India announced earlier this week that it and China agreed to patrol their disputed border area in the way that it was before June 2020’s lethal Galwan River Valley clashes. This was made possible by China finally complying with India’s long-standing request, which in turn paved the way for their leaders to hold a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of this week’s BRICS Summit in Kazan. What many don’t realize, however, is that the US was inadvertently responsible for facilitating their deal.

    This analysis here from early May explains how summer 2023’s scandal about an alleged Indian assassination attempt against a Delhi-designated terrorist-separatist with dual American citizenship on US soil was a turning point in their ties. The US then continued with its good cop, bad cop game against India prior to pushing Canada to escalate its related dispute with India earlier this month. Even before the latest developments, however, Indo-US ties had already noticeably soured over this issue.  

    India and China held multiple rounds of talks on their disputed border since 2020, but no breakthrough had occurred until Indo-US ties became characterized by distrust as a result of summer 2023’s scandal and all that followed. China realized that those two’s previous level of trust will never return, which assuaged its concerns that India is playing a leading role in the US’ containment policy. It was this shift in perceptions that then led to China reconsidering its informal policy towards their border dispute.

    China had been reluctant to return to the status quo ante bellum since this was seen as a unilateral concession that could signal weakness and worsen its hand in the South China Sea. The drastic downturn in Indo-US ties, however, led to the aforesaid being perceived as a pragmatic means for managing the abovementioned concerns about India containing China in coordination with the US. The improvement of Sino-Indo ties could therefore place limits on the future improvement of Indo-US ones.

    Finally complying with India’s long-standing request for resolving their post-Galwan tensions and consequently placing their partnership back on track amidst the dramatic downturn in Indo-US ties could preclude the possibility of India participating in the US’ containment scheme. No improvement in Indo-US ties would occur at the expense of Sino-US ones if that happens after this sensitive problem is finally patched up by then and India thus no longer has the same threat perception of China as before.

    China and India have natural economic complementarities, and if the world’s two largest countries ever found a way to unleash their full mutual potential upon resolving their sensitive territorial issues and correspondingly restoring mutual trust, then global affairs would begin to revolve around them. That’s why the US has sought to divide-and-rule them through information warfare and its Kissingerian “triangulation” policy, but this failed after it went too far pressuring India over summer 2023’s scandal.

    About that, the US never respected India as an equal partner and instead sought to subjugate it as a vassal by demanding that India comply with the West’s unilateral sanctions against Russia, which was unacceptable for both economic and principled reasons. The US also feared India’s astronomical rise as a Great Power since the start of the special operation, fueled to a large degree by discounted Russian energy, since this accelerated multipolar processes to the detriment of its unipolar hegemony.

    That explains why it exploited summer 2023’s scandal to worsen their ties, meddled in this year’s earlier general elections, and even helped overthrow the Bangladeshi government a few months ago in order to pressure India into complying with these demands and then punishing it when this didn’t happen. Military and trade ties remain stable for now, but it can’t be taken for granted from India’s perspective that this will remain the case as their political ties continue to deteriorate over summer 2023’s scandal.

    They can quietly manage their competition in Bangladesh and try to find a modus vivendi there, while the US’ meddling wasn’t direct nor intense enough like in other elections to seriously worsen their ties, which is why summer 2023’s scandal remains the most troublesome of their disputes. Instead of letting it subside, the US continues exacerbating it at periodic intervals, both on its own and via its Canadian proxy. This informed India that the US has malicious intentions and can never be fully trusted again.

    Accordingly, India was therefore pleased that China finally decided to comply with its long-standing request for resolving their post-Galwan tensions and getting bilateral ties back on track, which showed the US that India will never become its vassal. Additionally, India also demonstrated that it’s influential enough to further accelerate multipolar processes to the detriment of the US’ unipolar hegemony as revenge for being mistreated, though its wayward partner still might not change its ways.

    Even on the off chance that it does, the mutual trust that used to characterize their ties before summer 2023’s scandal will never return, thus ruling out the possibility that India will contain China in coordination with the US in the future. This is especially so after China just removed the primary irritant in their relations over the past four years that was responsible for driving the military dimension of Indo-US ties that prompted the People’s Republic to speculate that India was trying to contain it with the US.

    In retrospect and provided that the incipient Sino-Indo rapprochement continues, the US’ pressure campaign against India might be seen as a game-changer due to how tremendously it’s poised to reshape the global systemic transition’s strategic dynamics. The meaningful improvement of Sino-Indo relations could lead them closer to unlocking their full mutual potential, which would revolutionize International Relations if successful and thus bring an even swifter end to the US’ unipolar hegemony.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/25/2024 – 23:25

  • Watch: Trump And Rogan Have A Wild Interview
    Watch: Trump And Rogan Have A Wild Interview

    Former President Donald Trump appeared on the Joe Rogan podcast Friday, where they discussed a wide range of topics for three hours.

    Watch:

    Highlights:

    Getting rid of income taxes:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Hoaxes perpetrated against Trump:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Why Democrats are in favor of illegal immigration:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Trump on bad White House hires:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Keeping Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas in check:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The two discussed the horrible condition California is in thanks to Gov. Gavin Newsom:

    Trump on getting shot:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Trump on Musk:

    “Surreal” – On what it was like when Trump won the 1st time:

    “I want to be a whale psychiatrist” – Offshore windmills and how they affect whales:

    “You’ve said a lot of wild shit!” – Why Trump became so popular:

    Trump on Barron:

    “Big pharma wasn’t thrilled” – Trump on pressure not to work with RFK Jr.:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/25/2024 – 23:06

  • These Are The World's Best Bars In 2024
    These Are The World’s Best Bars In 2024

    Mexico City has been named the world capital of cocktails, with the famed Handshake Speakeasy bar taking the top spot in ‘The World’s 50 Best Bars 2024‘ by William Reed.

    As Statista’s Anna Fleck reports, the annual roundup is based on the votes of more than 600 industry experts from around the world, from bartenders and cocktail connoisseurs to consultants, critics and drinks reviewers.

    The podium is completed by Bar Leone, in Hong Kong, and Sips in Barcelona, the latter of which took the top spot last year.

    Infographic: The World’s Best Bars in 2024 | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    The highest ranked US bars are Double Chicken Please, in New York City (at 14th)…

    …and Overstory (also in NYC) at 15th on the list.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/25/2024 – 23:00

  • Stepping On The Snake
    Stepping On The Snake

    Authored by T.L.Davis via Substack,

    One can roll all of the majority of grievances into one basic event, the government stepping on the snake. The famous Gadsden Flag of “Don’t Tread On Me,” a warning to the Brits to mind their own affairs, or they might get bitten, is a favorite of the patriots against the decades-long process of violating their rights. It’s a warning revived during the Tea Party days, now fifteen years hence. But they have been stepping on them.

    What the US Government loves to do, is step on the snake; to grind it into the ground and since 1787, they have not been bitten. It’s our responsibility to future generations to retaliate for the injustices of our time. Each generation has a duty, as I see it, to deliver the nation to the next generation with a full compliment of rights and freedoms.

    In that endeavor, we have thus far failed, but a new day dawns.

    It’s difficult to imagine the depth and width of patriotic zeal that has slowly been eroded over the past few centuries, but it is a great reservoir that the current regime continues to draw on to inflict mass casualties on the people without significant backlash. This is largely due to a misunderstanding of loyalty.

    The government likes to project symbols as the objects of loyalty, while eroding freedoms in darkness. So they shine a bright light on the flag “Old Glory,” as it’s sometimes called, that represents the past obedience of the government to its charter, the U.S. Constitution. In the meantime, they have hollowed out that document by ignoring it all along the way, from Executive Branch expansion as a means of doing a backward illegality that is the purview of congress, i.e., all spending bills have to originate in the House. But if the Executive Branch creates FEMA or the EPA, it becomes incumbent on congress to fund it with the excuse that they could simply defund it, should it get out of control. Well, that’s exactly what’s happened over and over again, except the House doesn’t have the political will to stand up for the people and defund anything. They have been terrorized by the bureaucrats that give example after example of bad things that they will be blamed for if they defund a single thing.

    They like to shine a bright light on the capitol building and the Washington Monument, even the White House to appeal to patriotism, while none of those things function as intended. During the whole of the Biden Administration, the Executive Branch has run itself. The DOJ doesn’t worry about committing crimes, because who is going to hold it accountable? FEMA and the border patrol fall under their purview as well as the FBI. No one can hold them accountable, but they can defund them. Our congress, who has oversight, has been unwilling to restrain its excesses.

    All of this is a challenge to patriots to do something about it, knowing that whatever they might do will be cast as an attack on the flag, the congress or the cynically termed “democracy.” We saw that on January 6th. It had a chilling effect on the right to assemble and petition for a redress of grievances as intended. The constitutional right violates the security of the corrupt government and is suddenly deemed unpatriotic, an insurrection, rather than what it was, a right to petition the government to correct an openly and arrogantly stolen election.

    The point is, the government will fight back with everything it has to keep the people enslaved to their bastardization of the constitution and the denial of rights of the people. It takes a brave population to shrug off those charges, repudiate the “unpatriotic” theme with action, but look at what’s been endured since January 6th, 2021 and you’ll understand the lengths to which they will go and the methods by which you can operate.

    First, don’t give them a timeline, or an opportunity to infiltrate. The very existence of opposition assembly arises from Obama and sending SEIU out to do his bidding against those who protested Obamacare. I know, I was there, I saw it, including the buses and the sign-in sheets by which these public servants were paid for their time to counter unpaid, patriotic, citizen-organized protests. This is a tactic that has been used over and over with Antifa and BLM in later-stage government’s attacks on freedom of speech and the right to assemble.

    Anytime the government sponsors or pays counter-protesters, it is a violation of the First Amendment. Simple as that. They are acting unlawfully. To counter all of this, the people must be much more aware of their rights and especially the law with the willingness to report such crimes to the Sheriff or DA of the jurisdiction. That, specifically, is in violation of 18 USC 41 Conspiracy against rights, where any two people gathered to deny any right, in this case, intimidate you from exercising one’s right to petition the government for a redress of grievances through fear for one’s safety, they have committed a crime. One can tell the difference by where the “counter protesters” are placed. If it is within sight and sound of original protesters, the right has been violated.

    This all points to one ultimate conclusion. If the government is invested in denying any right of the people, it actually serves as an injury for which consequences can be expected. That is the justification, the act in defense of the constitution that defeats their claims of “unpatriotic acts.” In order to be unpatriotic, one has to be defying the constitution, not the illegal actions of the government itself. Denying that criticism, through counter-protestors or censorship of social media is in violation of the law.

    While I admit this all sounds like official gobbledegook that has no weight or stamina in a corrupt court, it is. But I’m not arguing the law, but the justification for consequences for stepping on the snake. Getting one’s mind right for the upcoming festivities is as important as any other preparation. It will endure one during hard times knowing that despite what the captured media might say, they acted rightfully and legally in the eyes of compatriots. This was the preparatory work not done prior to January 6th.

    There will be another January 6th, they’re begging for it and will, like then, create it, if it won’t be brought to them wrapped in shiny paper and a ribbon. The response, unlike then, must be a full-throated denunciation and demand for the real criminals to be exposed.

    Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/25/2024 – 22:35

  • These Are The Most Common Origins Of Immigrants
    These Are The Most Common Origins Of Immigrants

    A world map showing the most common origins of immigrants by country reveals some prolific immigrant nations as well as the influence that conflict and economic collapse can have on migration patterns.

    As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz reports, the most common pattern around the world is neighbors providing the most immigrants to one another.

    This is for example the case in the U.S. and Mexico, which are the biggest source of immigrants to each other.

    It is the same between Albania and Greece or Honduras and El Salvador, for example.

    Infographic: The Most Common Origins of Immigrants | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    This is based on data from the United Nations Population Division.

    This pattern is disrupted however, when many people leave their country at the same time due to conflict, war or poverty. Venezuelan immigrants are now the largest group in nine neighboring countries, while six neighbors of the Democratic Republic of the Congo have taken in large groups of their citizens.

    For Somalia, its five neighbors.

    Ukrainian immigrants as of 2020 already were the biggest group in four neighboring nations, equal to Syria and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

    Then there are also those nations which are known to send immigrants all over the world, not just in their direct neighborhood. Among them are India and China, with their citizens being the largest group of immigrants in neighboring nations as well as on the Arabian Gulf in the case of India and in Canada and Australia in the case of China.

    In Europe, Poland is the most prominent nation of emigration, with Poles being the largest group of immigrants in the United Kingdom, Germany and some Scandinavian nations.

    Only a handful of countries have a more unique major immigration partner that is not their neighbor. These instances are often tied to colonialism.

    The biggest immigrant group in Equatorial Guinea and Morocco are from France, while for the Netherlands it is Suriname, for Portugal Angola, for France Algeria, for Cuba Spain and for New Zealand the United Kingdom.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/25/2024 – 22:10

  • The US Is Now More Dependent On Fossil Fuel Power Than China
    The US Is Now More Dependent On Fossil Fuel Power Than China

    By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

    Increased use of natural gas for power generation has made the United States more dependent on fossil fuels for its electricity supply this year than China, the world’s top carbon emitter.

    Since June 2024, high U.S. summer electricity demand has been mostly met by increased gas-fired power generation, while a rebound in hydropower in China has limited to some extent the share of coal in its electricity supply.

    As a result, fossil fuels – including natural gas and coal – have had an average share of 62.4% of total electricity output in the United States since June. This compares to a lower fossil fuel share in the coal-dominated power system in China, where fossil fuels accounted for 60.5% of generation between June and September, according to data from energy think tank Ember reported by Reuters columnist Gavin Maguire.

    The rise in natural gas power output could undermine the current U.S. goals of making the grid zero-carbon by 2035.

    U.S. power generation from natural gas surged by 20% in the first nine months of 2024, compared to the same period of 2019. The share of gas in power supply has jumped to 43% from 38% five years ago.

    In recent years, power demand in the United States, the single largest portion of which is delivered by gas-fired power plants, has soared and is expected to continue to surge with rising electrification and more electricity necessary to power and cool data centers.

    U.S. power-generating companies are announcing plans for the highest volume of new natural gas-fired capacity in years as the AI boom is driving demand for electricity.

    During the first half of 2024, electricity-generating firms unveiled plans for the new gas-powered capacity equal to all capacity announced in 2020, according to data from Sierra Club cited by Bloomberg last month.

    Natural gas-fired electricity generation in the United States has jumped year-to-date compared to the same period last year, as total power demand rose with warmer temperatures and demand from data centers.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/25/2024 – 21:45

  • 39% Of US Couples Met Online
    39% Of US Couples Met Online

    Today’s daters are taking matters into their own hands. Seemingly no longer satisfied with the potential partners that life throws at them at work, in school and in their circle of friends, Statista’s Katharina Buchholz details below that an increasingly large number of heterosexual daters is opting to meet their partner online.

    Surveys carried out and analyzed by Stanford University show that between 1995 and 2017 the number of heterosexuals who met their partner on the internet rose sharply from 2 percent to 39 percent.

    Infographic: How Couples Met | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    With the help of dating apps like Tinder and eHarmony, but also through social networking sites like Facebook, daters reconnected with old friends and acquaintances (8 percent of couples who met online), were introduced to someone (11 percent) or – in the majority of cases – met someone completely new on their own (81 percent).

    The authors of the survey concluded that the main draw of looking for a stranger online was a larger set of choices than when leveraging friends and family, which was especially useful when “searching for something unusual or hard‐to‐find.“

    In a similar vein, meeting your partner in a bar or restaurant was also on the rise between 1995 and 2017.

    Stanford researchers excluded homosexuals from their analysis because they constitute a minority sexual orientation, making meeting someone online a more obvious choice for them than for heterosexuals.

    These were usually in a “thick dating market” (quote from Stanford) and therefore normally also able to identify several potential mates in their offline lives, according to the research.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/25/2024 – 21:20

  • American Horror Story: How We Create Our Own Worst Nightmare
    American Horror Story: How We Create Our Own Worst Nightmare

    Via SchiffGold.com,

    A simple internet search confirms the overwhelming buzz in the air: Americans across the board are more concerned with the economy than any other political issue.

    This concern is overwhelming across both aisles, seems to be growing, and has remained a large issue for years. Recent polling data shows that when combined, concern about inflation & prices, and jobs & the economy create a supergroup that more than doubles any other individual worry. While party lines are more rigid than we would like to believe, it seems as though a candidate who embraced this fear and found a solution could have absurdly high mass appeal.

    While both presidential candidates have seen the recent trends and more strongly espoused their economic plans, it seems almost impossible to focus on the economy too much. While the lack of overwhelming emphasis on economic issues might seem like a simple misunderstanding between politicians and citizens, the root of high inflation and economic uncertainty is much more linked to voter’s own desires than they would ever want to believe.

    Citizens, whose actively informed assent is supposed to be one the primary bases of government, have an odd habit of wanting the best for themselves. The declaration’s explicit promotion of our right to “life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness” has created a foundational belief that anything short of thriving is not fulfilling the promise of America.​​ While what it means to thrive is defined differently by person, most Americans believe that our access to material goods, pleasures, and freedom from worry should be constantly growing. While this desire is not unique to Americans, the state’s embrace of its role as a servant makes us less skeptical of politicians who promise to give national success in every area. We only apply strong scrutiny to the high-flying claims of the opposing sides’ candidates because we believe that the high-flying promises of our own candidates are merely necessary to the fulfillment of their duty. While in many countries all politicians are more obviously known to be self-seeking charlatans, our institutions’ relative freedom from corruption have allowed us to live under the illusion that we are always one president away from “getting it right.”

    This desire creates an endless loop where candidates who do not paint a rosy picture of the future lose favor with the public. While the American political and economic system has created unprecedented human thriving, our desire to select candidates who claim to “do it all” is the root cause of our economic woes. 

    It may seem fatalistic to claim that positive and multi-focused candidates are the problem. There is nothing inherently wrong with having a diverse policy agenda, but the short term cycle of elections necessitates that plans will skew towards the near future. It is possible to have less inflation, more economic growth, and less taxes, but not immediately. The best that a candidate can hope for is to time everything right so that all the key metrics of economic success are most appealing in the months leading up to their hopeful reelection. People cling to the idea that we can fix all of our problems without associated pain or adjustment periods. We must embrace willing restraint from indulgence if we are to secure the free and prosperous future we dream of. Candidates fuel our ignorant belief that we can be reckless in the present without sacrificing the future, because they know they will be able to escape blame for a collapse that comes many years after they leave office. This negative cycle is not a direct result of our electoral process, or even of the candidates themselves.

    This cycle is allowed to continue because of the economic ignorance and low impulse control of voters.

    We damn our children by choosing to maximize our own comfort, not fully understanding how it will affect them, or even ourselves in 15 years. 

    We will not be able to escape this cycle until basic economic principles are more rigorously taught in schools. When forced to choose between two big-spending candidates, choosing the candidate who creates freer market conditions will always be the better choice, because that type of unpredictable and rapid growth can sustain far more spending than the tepid stagnation of a wannabe command economy. While the choice is obvious, it is far from a safe choice. The candidates are not the problem, rather, they are a reflection of our desires. Our desires and understanding must be formed through our upbringing and education in a way that will allow us to cut through empty promises and simplistic hedonism. Wanting low prices, low taxation, a healthy military and a strong healthcare system is natural, but we must be wise enough to know that those things must come slowly.

    Fiscal responsibility is boring and painful, but it is the only way to simultaneously secure “life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.”

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/25/2024 – 20:55

  • US Shale Nat Gas Production Declines For The First Time Since 2000
    US Shale Nat Gas Production Declines For The First Time Since 2000

    By Katy Fleury of the EIA.gov

    U.S. natural gas production from shale and tight formations, which accounts for 79% of dry natural gas production, decreased slightly in the first nine months of 2024 compared with the same period in 2023. If this trend holds for the remainder of 2024, it would mark the first annual decrease in U.S. shale gas production since we started collecting these data in 2000.

    Total U.S. shale gas production from January through September 2024 declined by about 1%, to 81.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), compared with the same period in 2023, while other U.S. dry natural gas production increased by about 6% to 22.1 Bcf/d. Total U.S. dry natural gas production from January through September 2024 averaged 103.3 Bcf/d, essentially flat compared with the same period in 2023.

    The decline in shale gas production so far this year has been driven primarily by declines in production in the Haynesville and Utica plays. From January through September 2024, shale gas production decreased by 12% (1.8 Bcf/d) in the Haynesville and by 10% (0.6 Bcf/d) in the Utica compared with the same period in 2023. At the same time, shale gas production in the Permian play grew by 10% (1.6 Bcf/d). Production in the Marcellus play, which leads U.S. shale gas production, remained flat.

    The Haynesville play in northeastern Texas and northwestern Louisiana is a dry natural gas formation. The Utica and Marcellus plays in the Appalachian Basin produce lease condensate in addition to dry natural gas. In all three plays, natural gas prices mostly drive drilling and developing wells. The U.S. benchmark Henry Hub daily natural gas price has generally declined since August 2022 and reached record lows in the first half of 2024, making drilling natural gas wells less profitable, particularly in the Haynesville. Several operators in the Haynesville and the Appalachian Basin shut in natural gas production in reaction to historically low prices and intend to continue curtailments in the second half of 2024.

    In contrast, natural gas produced in the Permian play in western Texas and southeastern New Mexico is primarily associated gas from oil wells where drilling and development is driven by the oil price. Natural gas production in the Permian has increased this year along with increasing oil production.

    Shale natural gas production in the Utica was 5.6 Bcf/d in September, 33% less than the monthly high of 8.3 Bcf/d in December 2019 and 10% less than the average of 6.2 Bcf/d in 2023. At depths of 5,000 feet to 11,000 feet, wells in the Utica, which lies beneath the Marcellus, are slightly more expensive to drill than Marcellus wells because of their depth.

    Drilling costs of Haynesville wells, at depths of 10,500 feet to 13,500 feet, are even higher. Shale natural gas production in the Haynesville was 13.0 Bcf/d in September 2024, 14% less than the peak in May 2023. The Haynesville is the third-largest shale gas-producing play in the United States, behind the Marcellus and the Permian plays. In 2023, shale natural gas production in the Haynesville averaged 14.6 Bcf/d, accounting for 14% of total U.S. dry natural gas production.

    The U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas price fell 79% from the August 2022 inflation-adjusted high of $9.39 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) to an average of $1.99/MMBtu in August 2024. So far this year, the price has averaged $2.10/MMBtu compared with an inflation-adjusted average of $6.89/MMBtu in 2022 and $2.62/MMBtu in 2023. As natural gas prices declined, the economics of producing natural gas in the dry gas formations worsened, leading producers to shut in production and drop drilling rigs.

    Producers tend to increase or decrease the number of drilling rigs in operation as natural gas prices fluctuate. The number of natural gas-directed drilling rigs in the Haynesville, Utica, and Marcellus plays has decreased steadily since the end of 2022, according to data from Baker Hughes. In the Haynesville, an average of 33 rigs were in operation in September 2024, 53% fewer than in January 2023. The number of rigs operating in the Haynesville in September was the lowest it has been since July 2020.

    In the Utica, an average of seven rigs were operating in September 2024, fewer than half the number that were operating in January 2023, and in the Marcellus, an average of 25 rigs were in operation, about 36% fewer than in January 2023. Although the productivity of newer wells has improved in recent years, the decline in rig counts has contributed to an overall decrease in production.

    In our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast total U.S. dry natural gas production to average 103.5 Bcf/d in 2024, down slightly from 103.8 Bcf/d in 2023, and to resume modest growth in 2025 at 104.6 Bcf/d.

     

     

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/25/2024 – 20:30

  • 2 Lawmakers Attempt The Impossible: Saving Social Security
    2 Lawmakers Attempt The Impossible: Saving Social Security

    Authored by Mark Tapscott via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    More members of Congress, 329, co-sponsored the Social Security Fairness Act (SSFA) than nearly any other legislative proposal in 2024, but that may not be evidence of lawmakers’ eagerness to fix what ails the retirement pension program—the bill doesn’t address the fundamental insolvency issue.

    Illustration by The Epoch Times, Getty Images, Shutterstock

    The SSFA would end two provisions of current law that reduce benefits for millions of public employees at all levels of government with separate pension systems. Eliminating the provisions means more Social Security benefits for such workers.

    In other words, the SSFA would increase the total amount of Social Security benefits paid out without providing new revenues to fund them. Even so, the bipartisan proposal is likely to pass Congress and President Joe Biden—who promised in his 2020 campaign to eliminate the provision—is expected to sign it into law when lawmakers reconvene after the election.

    For decades, Social Security has been the untouchable “third rail” of American politics that virtually no Democrat or Republican dares to propose changing for fear of angering legions of elderly and disabled voters who depend on the program.

    Approximately 70 million Americans are beneficiaries, making Social Security the largest federal entitlement program.

    The Social Security Trustees’ latest report projects that the system will become insolvent in 2035 unless Congress approves major reforms soon.

    Meanwhile, the ratio of workers paying into the system to beneficiaries is heading downward. The ratio in 1950 was 16 workers to one beneficiary; today that ratio is 2.8 workers per beneficiary. Plus, retirees are living longer today, drawing more benefits over time.

    Politicians increase benefits, but are loathe to increase Social Security taxes or slash benefits.

    The seemingly impossible challenge for Congress and the White House is how to reform Social Security if increased taxes and reduced benefits are untouchable. The last president to propose a major reform was George W. Bush, who shortly after being re-elected in 2004, suggested privatizing the system.

    Under that proposal, Americans would have been allowed to divert some of their Social Security taxes into government-approved private investment funds. Bush hastily dropped the plan after opposition in both parties and in the mainstream media exploded.

    More recently, two lawmakers have ventured beyond the raise-taxes-reduce-benefits dilemma to explore other ways of saving Social Security before it becomes insolvent.

    Raising the Tax Cap

    Rep. John Larson (D-Conn.) has introduced his Social Security 2100 Act repeatedly in recent years, and it has gained strong support (188 co-sponsors) among his Democratic colleagues. Larson is the top Democrat on the House Ways and Means Committee’s Subcommittee on Social Security.

    During a floor speech earlier this year, Larson said that “more than five million of our fellow Americans have worked and paid into the system and get below poverty level checks from their government.”

    Larson noted, however, that it has been decades since Congress approved changes designed to shore up the Social Security system’s finances. He also rejected suggestions from House Republicans that a study commission be created to recommend reforms.

    “It’s long overdue that we not study this—how about we do what we’re elected to do by the public and actually vote,” he said.

    “I commend President Biden for saying, look, the way we’re going to pay for this is by lifting the cap … on people making more than $400,000 a year.”

    Larson’s bill would not hike the Social Security tax rate, but would apply Social Security taxes to all taxpayers making more than $400,000 annually. The present salary cap on Social Security taxes is set at $168,600.

    “Millionaires have already stopped paying into the Social Security program. Bill Gates stopped paying back in January. That is wrong, it’s not right, but to lift that cap will allow us to not only extend the solvency of Social Security, but increase benefits across the board,” he said.

    Rep. John Larson (D-Conn.) speaks as House Democrats hold a news conference to announce the introduction of the Social Security 2100 Act in front of the U.S. Capitol on March 18, 2015. Allison Shelley/Getty Images

    According to an analysis by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, an individual making $500,000 annually only pays Federal Insurance Contributions Act (FICA) levies on the first $168,600 of income, which equals $10,453 a year. Under the Larson proposal, the same individual would pay $31,000 in FICA levies, nearly three times as much.

    Larson did not respond to requests for comment.

    The Big Idea

    Venturing even further into reform is Sen. Bill Cassidy, a Louisiana doctor and ranking Republican on the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions.

    Cassidy calls his proposal the “Big Idea” and it is based on the creation by Congress of a new $1.5 trillion investment fund that is totally separate from the Social Security Trust Fund—which receives FICA revenues that pay for benefits.

    Asked by The Epoch Times how the new fund would be financed, Cassidy said “that is open to negotiation. You could sell government assets to fund it over time, you could borrow it and put it in there.

    “Folks say ‘But wait a minute, isn’t that going to increase your debt?’ It turns out you’re not spending it, you’re putting it into escrow. And according to the Congressional Budget Office, that’s going to be considered a wash.”

    The Big Idea escrow fund would be managed by an independent company that would bid for the job, assume a fiduciary responsibility for the results and invest the fund in a conservative portfolio of private sector entities to function like Sovereign Wealth funds.

    “[Wall Street executive John] Paulson and [former President Donald] Trump have talked about creating a Sovereign Wealth fund. Advisers to Joe Biden have talked about creating a Sovereign Wealth fund. Now what we’re talking about with our Big Idea is somewhat of a Sovereign Wealth fund,” Cassidy said. Paulson is often mentioned as a potential Secretary of the Treasury if Trump is re-elected.

    The same approach is already in use in the pension field, Cassidy said, with the federal government’s Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) for civil servants, the U.S. National Railroad Retirement Trust, Wisconsin’s public employee retirement system, and the Canadian government pension system.

    Cassidy said the fund is projected to generate sufficient profits to cover 75 percent of Social Security’s revenue shortfall and that he is open to alternative approaches to covering the remaining 25 percent.

    “Combined with some relatively minor tweaks to the program, at the end of 75 years, all the accumulated debt would be paid off, and the Social Security program would be able to cover its obligations in perpetuity,” he said in an earlier statement.

    Asked how misuse would be avoided, Cassidy said “we’ve got a couple of mechanisms, we had the Heritage Foundation help us draft the way by which to prevent political meddling.” He said former Comptroller General David Walker has also suggested several solutions.

    Cassidy said he supports a ban on investing in firms based in China, an issue that ensnared TSP managers in 2019 when Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) highlighted the risks of federal worker contributions investing in Chinese firms.

    Read the rest here…

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/25/2024 – 20:05

  • US Signals Defense Guarantees To Saudis As Iran's Crosshairs Could Be On Abqaiq Refinery
    US Signals Defense Guarantees To Saudis As Iran’s Crosshairs Could Be On Abqaiq Refinery

    Wall Street analysts have been on edge for weeks over the scope of Israel’s planned retaliation strike after Iran’s large-scale missile barrage on Oct. 1, which may include F-35 stealth fighter jets striking Iran’s nuclear facilities, missile sites and or oil infrastructure. The geopolitical risk premium for Brent crude has faded in recent weeks as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken runs around the Middle East to ensure that IDF jets hold off on any strikes against Iran until after the US presidential elections. 

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    Israel has considered a slew of retaliatory options, reportedly including fighter jets striking Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ high-value military targets, as well as Iran’s leadership, financial networks, oil infrastructure, and nuclear program sites. 

    About a week ago, Axios reported the leak of a highly classified US intelligence report that revealed new details about Israel’s plans for retaliation against Iran. This leak delayed IDF’s strike.

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    IDF’s most strategic move would be to dismantle the IRGC’s command and control networks and centers by targeting key officials, missile sites, and then financial networks. Also, paralyze Tehran’s ability to export crude via dark tanker fleets to China (source of revenues). All while trying to avoid a humanitarian crisis. This will be very challenging for Israel. 

    There is no doubt that after IDF strikes Iran, IRGC will respond in a tit-for-tat effort… 

    “The Iranian Foreign Minister’s ongoing diplomatic flurry in the Gulf notwithstanding, Iran will have little choice but to follow up on its threats to strike Gulf energy infrastructure once Iran’s own energy facilities come under attack and it becomes clear – again – that Iran lacks the ability to cause commensurate damage in Israel…This is easy to envision before the end of the year,” Scott Modell, CEO at Rapidan Energy Advisors, wrote in a statement.

    Bloomberg noted Friday morning that people familiar with the matter indicate Biden admin officials have signaled to Saudi Arabia they’re on standby and ready to defend the Kingdom against an attack by Iran or its proxies.

    Here’s more from the report:

    The tacit offer, made in the past few weeks, has given Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and other Gulf Arab leaders some comfort as they await Israel’s response to Iran’s Oct. 1 missile attack, said the people, asking not to be identified discussing sensitive issues. Gulf states fear any escalation of the conflict could severely hurt their economic and security interests, the people said.

    In all fairness to Bloomberg journalists, the US doesn’t really have any other option to signal otherwise. 

    The vulnerability we see is precisely what Iran demonstrated in its drone and missile attacks at Abqaiq (the largest crude oil stabilization plant in the world) and Khurais in Saudi Arabia in 2019.

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    This Abqaiq refinery attack back then briefly shuttered 5% of the global oil supply. 

    There’s a very real risk that the next evolution of conflict could be IRGC striking oil assets in Saudi Arabia, or even causing trouble in the maritime chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz – all in an effort to weaponize crude oil markets against the West and spark a financial shock. We’ve highlighted this potential scenario since early March in a note titled “The Weaponization Of Crude Could Trigger The Next Financial Shock.” 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/25/2024 – 19:40

  • Israeli Forces Attack Iran With "Precise Strikes On Military Targets" In Retaliatory Response
    Israeli Forces Attack Iran With “Precise Strikes On Military Targets” In Retaliatory Response

    Israel attacked Iran early Saturday morning local time with what it’s referred to as “precise strikes on Iranian military targets,” weeks after the Islamic Republic fired around 180 ballistic missiles towards Israel on Oct. 1. Blasts were reported near the headquarters of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.

    In a rare announcement, the Israeli military said its strikes are underway, and that their “offensive and defensive capabilities are fully mobilized,” while the WSJ reports that Israel gave the US advance notice.

    “We were aware in advance,” said a US official.

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    According to unconfirmed reports, several explosions have been heard in Tehran. According to journalist Reza Rashidpour, five large explosions were heard in the city within around 10 seconds, while Iranian Air Force jets have taken off in the western part of the country, the NY Times reports.

    According to the Times: 

    Residents of Tehran reported hearing multiple explosions in and around the Iranian capital, and Iranian state media sites said the explosions were near or at Imam Khomeini international airport.

    Maryam Naraghi, an Iranian journalist, said she heard large explosions in the eastern part of Tehran, where she lives. “It was the sound of bombs and explosions,” she said. “It was very close to where I am in the eastern part of the city.” The area includes military bases and the secretive military site Parchin.

    Another Iranian journalist, Reza Rashidpour, said five massive explosions were heard in Tehran within about 10 seconds. He said Iranian air force jets had taken off in the western part of the country.

    Iranians have also reported hearing explosions in Isfahan, Mashhad, and Kurdistan province, while two senior Arab officials told NBC News that the initial strike on Tehran targeted barracks and a weapons depot.

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    Tehran has threatened to target Gulf states and other US allies if their territories or airspace are used to attack Iran – while Israel assured the US that it wouldn’t strike Iran’s oil or nuclear facilities.

    As Axios reports, US and Israeli officials believe Iran will respond military – but hope it will be ‘constrained’ in order to put an end to the tit-for-tat (ok).

    Driving the news: The U.S. military boosted its forces in the region in the last few weeks ahead of Israel’s possible attack on Iran.

    • U.S. officials said the goal was to deter Iran from responding and help Israel defend itself from another Iranian missile barrage.
    • President Biden and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin decided to deploy a THAAD missile defense system in Israel with a crew of U.S. military operators.
    • That means U.S. soldiers could actively engage in the fighting between Israel and Iran on Israeli soil.
    • On Friday, several hours before the Israeli strike, CENTCOM announced that U.S. Air Force F-16s from the 480th Fighter Squadron based at Spangdahlem Air Base in Germany had arrived in U.S. Central Command’s area of responsibility.

    Meanwhile, the FBI is investigating a leak of top secret US intelligence documents that revealed part of Israel’s upcoming strike on Iran.

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    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/25/2024 – 19:35

  • Quiet Before The Storm
    Quiet Before The Storm

    Authored by J. Peder Zane via RealClearPolitics,

    “I just can’t wait for this campaign to be over.”

           –The American people

    Enjoy these last nasty days of the presidential election – they are the quiet before the storm. As long as the race continues, each side’s anger is reined in by the hope of victory. Once a winner is declared, the loser’s rage will erupt. This political Vesuvius promises to inflame the land as events unfold in these final days to maximize furious disappointment

    Donald Trump’s side is becoming ever more confident of victory. In recent weeks, RealClearPolitics Polling Averages show Harris’ national lead evaporating while Trump has moved slightly ahead in all six battleground states. Betting markets are now giving Trump the edge.

    Still, the polls are very close, and Harris may win. If Trump could insist that he won the 2020 race when all the polls predicted his defeat, just imagine his response if he fails when he appeared to be succeeding. He will not go quietly into the good night.

    Kamala Harris, meanwhile, has settled on a closing argument that focuses on Trump’s alleged unsuitability for office. As the candidate herself describes her opponent as an unstable threat to the Constitution, her surrogates are once again comparing him to Hitler, Stalin, and Mussolini. They honestly believe this rhetoric, which will make it impossible for them to bow to his ascension.

    We have seen this movie before. The Democrats refused to accept Trump’s victory in 2016; he still won’t concede that President Biden won in 2020. As before, neither side will blame themselves for defeat; they will lash out at their perceived enemies. Each will advance their favored conspiracy theory – Trump will rail against the press and deep state, Democrats against foreign influence and misinformation – but both will cast the result as illegitimate.

    This is what happens when you are controlled by tribal emotion, when your politics are governed by psychology rather than policy. People have too much invested in the outcome – literally, their sense of self – to engage in soul searching (at least in the short run).

    Because of the different structures of each party, a Harris loss would be far more destructive to the country.

    In its current incarnation, the GOP is a bottom-up party. None of its ranking eminences wanted Trump to be the nominee in 2016; almost all of them hoped he would go away after his 2020 defeat. The MAGA rank and file felt differently.

    If Trump loses, he will fume and smolder and inflame the body politic. Millions of his supporters will be outraged. But they are largely powerless to influence events. Jan. 6 may have been a dark day in American history, but it was a brief action by a small number of people that was never repeated. Most Republicans condemned the assault and resigned themselves to living peaceably during the Biden presidency. If Trump loses once more, party leaders will, as in 2020, admit defeat and denounce efforts to overturn the result. Frankly, they will be happy to turn the page on the Trump era.

    The Democrats, by contrast, are a top-down party. While no one should be surprised by a repeat of the contained violence their supporters unleashed around Trump’s inauguration, the real action will occur once more in the corridors of power.

    In a repetition of Trump’s first term, party leaders will refuse to accept his election. An army of Democratic Party lawyers is amassed, awaiting instructions on how, and where, to challenge the results. If, as the polls suggest, Democrats retake the House, they have already floated the idea of refusing to seat him, invoking the Civil War-era 14th Amendment to claim he is a Jan. 6 “insurrectionist.” Assuming that gambit fails, they will almost certainly launch multiple impeachment efforts against him while their stenographers in legacy media continuously cast him as an existential threat to the Republic. As during Trump’s first term, every day will be a nonviolent version of Jan. 6. You cannot, after all, find common ground with Hitler.

    It pains me to say that the next four years will be more bitter than the last eight. We, the people, have painted ourselves into a corner by turning to the unforgiving world of politics to find identity and meaning. Will we ever find the courage to say enough?

    J. Peder Zane is a RealClearInvestigations editor and columnist. He previously worked as a book review editor and book columnist for the News & Observer (Raleigh), where his writing won several national honors. Zane has also worked at the New York Times and taught writing at Duke University and Saint Augustine’s University.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/25/2024 – 19:15

  • Owners Of Ship Involved In Baltimore Bridge Collapse Settle DOJ Lawsuit For $100 Million
    Owners Of Ship Involved In Baltimore Bridge Collapse Settle DOJ Lawsuit For $100 Million

    The owner and operator of the cargo ship that caused a Baltimore bridge collapse has agreed to pay nearly $102 million to settle a civil lawsuit with the Department of Justice, the DOJ announced Thursday.

    The Dali collided with one of the columns of the Francis Scott Key bridge in March, after the ship suffered mechanical issues, which caused the bridge to collapse and kill six workers. 

    The incident forced Baltimore to close its port and federal channel for months, which slowed commercial shipping traffic that flowed through Maryland’s largest city.

    As The Epoch Times’ Caden Pearson reports, the DOJ announced the settlement with Grace Ocean and Synergy Marine, the owners and operators of the Motor Vessel Dali, on Oct. 24.

    The deal resolves a portion of the legal dispute that began in September when the DOJ sued the companies for damages linked to the federal government’s response to the incident.

    The $101.9 million settlement will cover the federal government’s costs for cleaning up the wreckage and reopening the port. However, it does not address the cost of rebuilding the bridge itself, which the state of Maryland is pursuing in a separate claim.

    “Thanks to the hard work of the Justice Department attorneys since day one of this disaster, we were able to secure this early settlement of our claim, just over one month into litigation,” Benjamin Mizer, principal deputy associate attorney general, said in a statement.

    “This resolution ensures that the costs of the federal government’s cleanup efforts in the Fort McHenry Channel are borne by Grace Ocean and Synergy and not the American taxpayer.”

    In a separate move, Grace Ocean has already paid nearly $100,000 to the Coast Guard to address the oil spill threat caused by the wreck.

    “This is a tremendous outcome that fully compensates the United States for the costs it incurred in responding to this disaster and holds the owner and operator of the Dali accountable,” said Brian Boynton, principal deputy assistant attorney general at the DOJ.

    The disaster occurred on March 26 when the Motor Vessel Dali lost power while departing the Port of Baltimore for Sri Lanka.

    After regaining and then losing power again, the ship struck the Francis Scott Key Bridge, causing it to collapse into the water below.

    The collapse halted shipping traffic in and out of the port for weeks and severed a critical highway connection.

    Federal, state, and local agencies worked together to clear over 50,000 tons of debris from the water. Shipping resumed by June after temporary channels were created to ease the jam.

    The $100 million settlement does seem a little shy of the estimates of the costs involved in rebuilding the bridge.

    As Shailen Bhatt, administrator of the Federal Highway Administration, confirmed to lawmakers in May, a preliminary estimate to replace the bridge at $1.7 billion to $1.9 billion. It will take four years to construct, with completion estimated to come sometime in 2028, he said.

    So while they may claim the “American taxpayer” is off the hook,  we suspect that is another lie (because the optics would be bad).

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/25/2024 – 18:50

  • Election Battles For State Legislature Supermajorities Heat Up
    Election Battles For State Legislature Supermajorities Heat Up

    Authored by Austin Alonzo via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    While Congress stagnates, America’s state houses are drafting and passing policies affecting millions. Now, more than ever, those legislative bodies operate without input from an opposition party or dissenting governor.

    Illustration by The Epoch Times, Shutterstock

    As of Oct. 21, there are 23 Republican trifectas, 17 Democratic trifectas, and 10 divided governments where neither party holds trifecta control, according to Ballotpedia. A trifecta means one party holds the state governorship and a majority in the state house and senate.

    Heading into November’s general election, legislative supermajorities exist in 57 of the 99 legislative chambers in the union, according to data compiled by state and local government consultancy Stateside.

    Republicans hold 41 of those veto-proof advantages, while Democrats own 20. All told, there is a partisan supermajority in at least one house of the Legislature in 35 of the 50 states.

    However, in 14 of those states, the supermajority is held by an advantage of three seats or less. Michael Behm, Stateside’s co-CEO and principal, told The Epoch Times that organizations aligned with the Democratic and Republican parties are spending heavily on down-ballot races that could make or break a supermajority in the coming legislative term.

    Even though voter interest is low in statehouse races compared with high-profile campaigns for national offices, Behm and others who spoke with The Epoch Times said the stakes are high. Most of the legislative actions that affect the public, such as policy on abortions, education, energy, health care, taxes, and transportation, come from decisions made in statehouses.

    “With the federal government being so polarized and hamstrung these days, the action is at the state level,” Behm said.

    Supermajorities

    The definition of a supermajority varies from state to state. Generally, attaining a supermajority means a state legislative body has enough members from one party to pass laws without any votes from the minority party and enough votes to override the governor’s vetoes.

    Heading into the 2024 general election, Republicans hold a supermajority in both houses of the state Legislature in Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.

    Additionally, Republicans hold a supermajority in one chamber of the Legislature in Iowa, Mississippi, and South Carolina.

    Democrats own a supermajority in both houses of the state Legislature in California, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, and Rhode Island. Democrats have a supermajority in one chamber of the state Legislatures of Colorado, Connecticut, and Nevada.

    Behm said that’s the largest number of supermajorities he has ever observed in state legislatures. Ideologically, the domination of the legislatures by a single party reflects intense political polarization in these states, he said.

    Chris Cooper, director of the Haire Institute for Public Policy at Western Carolina University, said a supermajority effectively limits the governor’s power to carry out policy priorities in a state with a divided government.

    Four governors—Kansas’s Laura Kelly, Kentucky’s Andy Beshear, North Carolina’s Roy Cooper, and Vermont’s Phil Scott—preside over divided state governments in which the opposition party holds a legislative supermajority.

    The four governors’ legislatures stripped them of much of their policymaking potency. In June, Scott, a Republican, told members of the news media, “I think the power has gotten to their head,” referring to the Democrat-controlled Vermont General Assembly’s overriding of six of his vetoes in a single override session.

    In North Carolina, a supermajority almost wholly nullifies the will of a governor who already commands limited influence under the state’s constitution, Chris Cooper said.

    With their supermajority, Republicans passed new abortion restrictions, drafted new election laws, and further throttled back Gov. Roy Cooper’s power during the most recent legislative session.

    “They have taken away appointment power from the North Carolina governor,” Chris Cooper said. “They have made a number of changes that make the already powerful state Legislature into something even more powerful.”

    National Efforts

    Behm said the rise of legislative supermajorities can be attributed to growing involvement from national partisan groups known as 527 organizations. These are tax-exempt entities that can receive and spend unlimited amounts of money to influence federal, state, and local politics and elections.

    Three decades ago, statehouse races were usually local contests directed and financed by city and state chambers of commerce, unions, and other parochial political organizations, Behm said. Now, national groups such as the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) and Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) invest vast national resources into the state’s legislative caucuses.

    Behm said both party committees use professionals to recruit candidates and organize the partisan campaigns designed to build majorities in statehouses.

    The New York State Assembly Chamber at the state Capitol in Albany, N.Y., on Jan. 16, 2024. Hans Pennink/AP Photo

    “These 527 groups have turned state legislative races into national races,” Behm said.

    Chris Cooper said Republicans began to take over the statehouses in 2010 when the Republican Party introduced an initiative known as Project REDMAP. The plan called for investing huge sums into state legislative races that were previously overlooked in Washington and flipping chambers to the GOP.

    “They did as advertised,” he said. “They turned maps red.”

    Read the rest here…

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/25/2024 – 18:25

  • Lebanon Expresses Outrage After Israeli Warplanes Strike Group Of Journalists: 'War Crime'
    Lebanon Expresses Outrage After Israeli Warplanes Strike Group Of Journalists: ‘War Crime’

    Lebanon has accused Israel of committing a war crime after a group of journalists in south Lebanon came under attack by Israeli warplanes. Three journalists were killed during an air raid on a hotel or guesthouse in Hasbaya, about 50km south of Beirut and near the Syrian border.

    BBC is reporting that “The attack was carried out on a guesthouse in a compound in Hasbaya being used by more than a dozen journalists from at least seven media organizations – with a courtyard containing cars clearly marked with ‘press’.

    Image: Associated Press

    The three slain journalists worked for regional broadcasters Al-Manar TV and Al Mayadeen TV, which confirmed the deaths in statements, identifying the deceased as Ghassan Najjar, Mohammad Reda, and Wissam Qassem.

    While Israel did not offer immediate comment, it might rationalize or seek to justify the killings given that Al-Manar is a Hezbollah-run news network, and Al Mayadeen is seen as pro-Iran.

    But Lebanon’s Information Minister Ziad Makary charged that this was an intentional assassination of journalists.

    “The Israeli enemy waited for the journalists’ nighttime break to betray them in their sleep… This is an assassination, after monitoring and tracking, with prior planning and design, as there were 18 journalists there representing seven media institutions. This is a war crime,” Makary wrote on X.

    Other reporters, including from MTV Lebanon were present during the attack but escaped unscathed. “All official parties were told that this house was being used as a stay-house for journalists. We coordinated with them all,” an Al-Jadeed journalist described during a subsequent live broadcast from the location.

    And an MTV Lebanon reporter, Youmna Fawwaz, detailed the following:

    She said ceilings had fallen in on them, and they were surrounded by rubble and dust, with the sound of fighter jets overhead.

    Each news organization had their own building in the compound, she said, and the building housing the Al Mayadeen reporters was “obliterated” while Al-Manar employees were inside.

    Images from the bombed-out scene indeed show cars with large English markings indicating ‘Press’…

    Getty Images

    Fawwaz further accused Israel of conducting assassinations in order to prevent the Lebanese correspondents from covering the fighting in the south. “The airstrike was carried out on purpose. Everyone knew we were there. All the cars were labelled as press and TV. There wasn’t even a warning given to us,” she said.

    Since the start of the conflict after Oct.7, 2023 – dozens of journalists have died – mostly in Gaza. Israel has particularly cracked down on Al Jazeera, expelling the Qatar-based network from Israel and the West Bank.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/25/2024 – 18:00

  • Is Kamala The Bigger Threat To The Constitutional Order?
    Is Kamala The Bigger Threat To The Constitutional Order?

    Authored by David Harsanyi via PJMedia.com,

    Vote. Don’t vote. I don’t care. Just stop telling me that Vice President Kamala Harris is going to save democracy.

    Do I wish Republicans had nominated a more coherent, principled, competent candidate for the presidency? Of course. But if anyone is under the impression Democrats tapped such a person, I have news. Spend some time trying to decipher Harris’ swirling, platitude-ridden, incoherent rhetoric and you will only be further convinced that we live in an idiocracy.

    Sure, there are many reasons why a movement conservative might feel uncomfortable voting for former President Donald Trump. I get it. I’m not a fan. But there are plenty of completely rational reasons to vote for him, as well. First and foremost, the existence of the contemporary Democratic Party.

    Liz Cheney, and other Never Trumpers, tell me that the former president poses a uniquely dangerous threat to the Constitution, and thus, I must set aside any policy disagreements with Democrats and put country over politics.

    No doubt, this kind of self-glorification feels great, but it doesn’t really comport with reality.

    For one thing, most of the Left’s scariest warnings about Trump are fiction. I don’t believe The Atlantic when it tells me that Trump is a would-be Hitler. I’m sorry, I don’t believe he’s going to throw all his political enemies in concentration camps. Save the story for the next Mueller investigation.

    Considering recent history, in fact, it’s clear to me that the Left is far more adept and willing to weaponize the state to punish their enemies. And I’m not just talking about the unprecedented lawfare launched at Trump. I’m talking about debarring lawyers. I’m talking about raiding the homes of pro-life activists. I’m talking about the spying on Catholic churches and the Justice Department’s chilling speech by smearing parents who stood up to authoritarian school boards as terrorists.

    Moreover, even if Trump acted on his worst instincts, the damage would likely be confined to his own presidency. Trump is about Trump. Harris and Democrats, though, have openly embraced a string of consequential, long-term attacks on the constitutional order. Ones that we can never come back from.

    Sorry, I don’t accept that a woman who once complained to CNN’s Jake Tapper that “millions and millions of people” were speaking “without any level of oversight or regulation, and that has to stop” is going to be my champion of the Constitution.

    Harris’ running mate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz recently argued that there is “no guarantee” for free speech when it came to “misinformation” or “hate speech,” “especially around our democracy.” If this were a properly functioning republic, Walz would be thrown to the curb.

    No honest person could possibly believe Democrats are better for free expression.

    Let’s not forget either that Harris once promised to bypass Congress and sign an executive order seizing rifles from millions of law-abiding Americans. Though Democrats like to pretend otherwise, the Second Amendment is still part of the Constitution.

    Indeed, Harris is in no position to lecture anyone about any governing norms.

    She frequently praises Biden for ignoring courts and “forgiving” student loans by forcing taxpayers to foot the bill. She supports trashing the legislative filibuster, empowering slim majorities to destroy any semblance of federalism. Harris has backed bills that would have overturned thousands of state laws, allowing national Democrats to strip state election security measures, make abortion legal until crowning, compel local religious hospitals to perform gender transition surgeries, shut down religious foster care organizations, and many other outrages.

    None of this is to even speak of her efforts to destroy the Supreme Court. Harris, who gleefully took part in the vile smearing of Justice Brett Kavanaugh, supports packing the court — the most serious attack on the judicial branch since President Franklin Roosevelt’s effort in the 1930s. Senate Democrats say it is “virtually certain” they will pass a “Supreme Court reform” bill that, among other assaults on the judicial branch, will empower legislators to strip individual justices of their power.

    This is all just blatantly authoritarian stuff. 

    Right now — in part, because of Trump — the court is the only institution in the United States that properly functions. There is no telling what kind of arsonist Harris and Democrats would install.

    At the very least, I know Trump has a track record of not only nominating decent jurists but sticking with them under massive pressure.

    It is odd, indeed, that Democrats, who support price controls, state mandates and a slew of other economic intrusions that force corporations to bend to their will, are constantly warning us about the specter of “fascism.”

    We have no clue if the Trump presidency plays out. Trumpism is whatever Trump says it is whenever he feels like it. It might well be a disaster. But Harris offers me nothing.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/25/2024 – 17:40

  • At Least A Dozen Colorado Ballots Stolen And Mailed In, Officials Say
    At Least A Dozen Colorado Ballots Stolen And Mailed In, Officials Say

    Reinforcing concerns that many Americans have with voting that isn’t done in-person, at least 12 Colorado mail-in ballots were stolen, filled out with forged signatures, and submitted — and three of them are going to count anyway. Announced by state officials on Thursday, the thefts all affected voters in western Colorado’s Mesa County, but the discovery leaves people wondering how many other forged ballots may have gone undetected elsewhere in the state and across the country.

    “The Department of State learned that at least 12 ballots appear to have been intercepted before reaching voters,” said Secretary of State Jena Griswold’s office in a statement. “Those ballots were voted and then returned to the Mesa County Clerk and Recorder via USPS mailboxes. This issue was flagged during Colorado’s secure signature verification process.” 

    Secretary of State Jena Griswold said every voter will be able to “make their voice heard” — but previously tried to prevent Donald Trump from appearing on Colorado ballots (Photo: Jena Griswold / X)

    Rather than sending them upon request, Colorado mails ballots to every registered voter in the state — that’s about 4 million ballots making their way through the postal system and before being left in mailboxes, a great many of which are unsecured. In addition to returning ballots via the postal service, Coloradans can also use drop boxes. 

    Several of the victimized voters were surprised to receive notifications that their ballots — which they hadn’t submitted — required curing because their signatures didn’t match digital signatures in the state database. Griswold said the handwriting on multiple ballots seemed to indicate the same individual completed each of them. 

    While sharing some details about the theft, Griswold, a Democrat, was tight-lipped about the detail most people want to know: which candidate(s) were meant to benefit from this crime? If her name sounds familiar, it’s because Griswold attempted to exclude Donald Trump from Colorado’s 2024 ballots on the claim he’d incited an insurrection in 2021. In May, the US Supreme Court ruled against her. 

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    Perhaps the most troubling detail about the Mesa County situation is that three of the fraudulent ballots will not be removed from the count. They were flagged for review, but then a single election judge approved them all. After that action, there’s no mechanism for remedy or removal, officials say. The judge who approved the three forged ballots has been reassigned. “Everybody affected will be offered a new ballot,” Griswold told reporters.  

    “Colorado’s elections are safe and secure. This attempt at fraud was found and investigated quickly because of all the trailblazing processes and tools Colorado has in place like signature verification, ballot tracking, and the curing process,” said Griswold. “Every eligible Colorado voter will be able to make their voice heard this election.” Griswold’s boast seems excessive, given 25% of the known fraudulent ballots are being counted anyway. Uneasy Colorado voters can check the status of their ballots by visiting Go Vote Colorado.  

    Mesa County is in Colorado’s expansive 3rd congressional district. It’s currently represented by Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert, but she’s now making a run to represent eastern Colorado’s 4th district instead. She only won reelection in 2022 by about 500 votes and would have faced long odds against the same better-funded opponent, Adam Frisch. The Economist projects Boebert will win the 4th-district in a landslide. Neither of Colorado’s Senate seats are up for election this year. Meanwhile, Polymarket gives Kamala Harris a 94.8% chance winning Colorado’s 10 electoral votes. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/25/2024 – 17:20

  • WaPo Editor Quits, Staff Has Total Meltdown After Non-Endorsement Of Kamala Harris
    WaPo Editor Quits, Staff Has Total Meltdown After Non-Endorsement Of Kamala Harris

    Update (1716ET): Time for another bag of popcorn!

    In response to Jeff Bezos’ decision not to endorse a presidential candidate this year, staff are having a total meltdown, liberals are canceling their subscriptions, and editor-at-large Robert Kagan (husband of Victoria Nuland) just quit.

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    According to Semafor, “people are shocked, furious, surprised,” one WaPo editorial board member told the outlet, citing internal discussions involving resignation. “If you don’t have the balls to own a newspaper, don’t.”

    Meanwhile, the paper’s chief technical officer is having engineers block reader questions about the non-endorsement on their internal system.

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    One editorial board member tells Brian Stelter that Bezos’ decision is “an outrageous abdication of responsibility. Democracy doesn’t die in darkness, it dies when people anticipatorily consent to a fascist’s whims.”

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    Subscriptions are being canceled. Reeee!

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    *  *  *

    Update (1450ET): The Washington Post has shed light on their decision not to endorse a presidential candidate for the first time in more than 30 years, revealing that “The decision not to publish was made by The Post’s owner – Amazon founder Jeff Bezos.“

    The paper also admits that a Harris endorsement had been drafted by staffers but Jeff killed it.

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    And employees are seething but not coping, according to Semafor’s Max Tani.

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    What happened?

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    Look out, Jeff!

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    *  *  *

    Three weeks ago, the Teamsters Union became the second major union to announce that they would not endorse a presidential candidate after internal polling revealed 58% of its members back Trump vs. 31% for Harris.

    That was understandable – their own members overwhelmingly rejected Harris.

    This is different.

    On Friday, the Washington Post announced that it would not endorse a candidate for president either, for the first time in 36 years.

    “The Washington Post will not be making an endorsement of a presidential candidate in this election. Nor in any future presidential election. We are returning to our roots of not endorsing presidential candidates,” the outlet said in a statement.

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    Colleagues are said to be ‘shocked’ at the decision, according to NPR.

    The editorial page editor, David Shipley, told colleagues that the Post’s publisher, Will Lewis, would publish a note to readers online early Friday afternoon.

    Shipley told colleagues the editorial board was told yesterday by management that there would not be an endorsement. He added that he “owns” this decision. The reason he cited was to create “independent space” where the newspaper does not tell people for whom to vote.

    Colleagues were said to be “shocked” and uniformly negative. Post corporate spokespeople have not responded to multiple messages left by NPR on the subject.

    As NPR‘s David Folkenflik notes on X, “It is not clear whether Post owner Jeff Bezos or Publisher/CEO Will Lewis made the call.“

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    As Mario Nawfal noted on X,

    The Post has primarily endorsed Democratic candidates for nearly a century, with only 3 Republicans since 1928.

    Here’s a complete list of presidential candidates endorsed by The Washington Post since 1928, which highlights the significance of their 2024 decision to skip endorsements:

    • 1932 to 1944: Franklin D. Roosevelt (Democrat)

    • 1948: Thomas Dewey (Republican)

    • 1952 & 1956: Dwight D. Eisenhower (Republican)

    • 1960: John F. Kennedy (Democrat)

    • 1964: Lyndon B. Johnson (Democrat)

    • 1968: Hubert Humphrey (Democrat)

    • 1972: George McGovern (Democrat)

    • 1976 & 1980: Jimmy Carter (Democrat)

    • 1984: Walter Mondale (Democrat)

    • 1988: Michael Dukakis (Democrat)

    • 1992 & 1996: Bill Clinton (Democrat)

    • 2000: Al Gore (Democrat)

    • 2004: John Kerry (Democrat)

    • 2008: Barack Obama (Democrat)

    • 2012: Barack Obama (Democrat)

    • 2016: Hillary Clinton (Democrat)

    • 2020: Joe Biden (Democrat)

    The move comes after the Los Angeles Times similarly declined to endorse Harris – leading to the resignation of the paper’s opinion editor, Marzel Garza.

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    Wow…

    Developing…

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    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/25/2024 – 17:17

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