Mar 02

Today’s News 2nd March 2019

  • Here's How You'll Die When The SHTF (And How To Prevent Your Untimely Demise)

    Authored by Daisy Luther via The Organic Prepper blog,

    When it hits the fan…I mean REALLY hits the fan in a permanent kind of way, the most likely outcome is death.

    That’s not pretty, and I’m well aware of it. I always try to be positive and optimistic, because for me, preparedness is the ultimate act of optimism, but sometimes we have to look at the numbers and face some things that are pretty terrifying. The first reality check is that some research says that only 3 million Americans are preppers.  That means that 315 million Americans are not preppers. Some experts predict that within 30 days of the power going out, 50% of Americans will be dead. Within a year, an astounding 90% of the population will be dead.

    Do you want to survive such a scenario? Do you want your children to survive? When you read this information, you have to realize that it’s very unlikely that you and your family would live through a grid failure of a year or more unless you are proactive and develop a preparedness plan that takes all of these causes of death into consideration.

    The Top 10 Ways to Die in a Long-term Disaster

    So here are the cold hard facts. One of these is the way that you are most likely to die when the SHTF, particularly in the event of a long-term grid failure. The good news is, now that you know this, you can take steps to prevent your untimely demise.

    1. You die of thirst or waterborne illness.  Most people have a case of water bottles kicking around, and perhaps a 5 gallon jug for the water cooler. What they don’t have is a gallon a day per person for a long-term emergency. Most people also don’t own a gravity fed, no-power necessary water filtration device with spare parts and extra filters. Most people do not have the skills and knowledge necessary to purify their water without these devices either.  Waterborne illness is the number one cause of death after a natural disaster. If just one person handles water and waste incorrectly, this can cause an epidemic of such deadly illnesses as Hepatitis A, viral gastroenteritis, cholera, Shigellosis, typhoid, Diphtheria and polio.  The other worry is dehydration. It only takes 3 days for a person to die of thirst.  Learn more about the importance of water preparedness HERE. If you’d like information on water preparedness in a print version, check out my book on the subject.

    2. You die from fantasy-world planning. So many preppers have poorly thought out plans for survival. They think they’ll “live off the land” and hunt, forage, and farm their way through the apocalypse, but they’ve never milked a goat or planted the contents of their seed banks. They don’t understand that gardens and crops can fail for innumerable reasons. They think they’re still in the same physical condition that they were 25 years ago and overestimate their ability to perform physical labor, like chopping wood for the fire. There are hundreds of bad strategies that will get preppers killed (in fact, here are 12 of them), and mostly it boils down to one crucial fact: it’s all a fantasy. They’ve never done ANY of the things that they think they will do for survival, or if they have done them, it was decades ago, when they were younger, fitter, and more resilient. I can tell you right now, if we had to live off of the contents of this year’s drought-stricken, deer-and-gopher-raided garden, we’d last about a week, enjoying salsa by the jarful, but little else.

    3. You freeze to death. Depending on where you live, you may freeze to death when the power goes out.  When temperatures plummet, people will become desperate to get warm, and this will lead to other modes of death such as carbon monoxide poison from improperly vented heat sources and house fires when people use fireplaces or wood stoves that have not been maintained for years. Learn about staying warm during a winter power outage HERE and begin to develop a plan that will keep your family cozy during a long-term scenario.

    4. You starve to death. Most people only have enough food to see them through until the next grocery trip.  Most people go to the grocery store more than once per week. In urban centers, it’s customary to buy your food fresh from the market each day.  If disaster strikes and you only have a few days’ worth of food, you are going to be one of those people standing in line for hours, begging FEMA for a bottle of water and an MRE to split amongst your family.  Even worse, in an extremely widespread disaster, FEMA won’t be coming at all, and you’ll be on your own, left with only what you have in your home…before it spoils and if you can figure out a way to cook it with no power.  Food poisoning, starvation, and malnutrition will be common causes of death. Learn about building a pantry on a budget HERE. To start yourself out with a speedy supply, go HERE for a variety of high quality, non-GMO kits.

    5. You have an accident involving major trauma. This is something that is difficult to prevent – that’s why they call it an accident. To up your chances of survival, always where the proper protective gear, such as safety goggles and gloves. Secondly, spend some time learning to deal with medical situations. Many communities offer free First Aid courses to get you started. Stock up on books that provide information for times when medical care is not available (this one is the very best in my opinion), and have advanced supplies on hand to deal with injuries.

    6. You get murdered when raiders or looters come to steal your stuff.  Remember the 315 million unprepared Americans? They’re going to be hungry. And the hungrier and more desperate people become, the more dangerous the world is going to be. It’s imperative that you be prepared to defend your home and family from them. If you’re one of those people who says, “I don’t want to live in a world where I have to shoot someone because they’re hungry” you just might get your wish. Because they won’t have a problem shooting you. This is one of the major reasons that preppers must be armed. The danger isn’t just from mobs of strangers.  If you tend to talk too much, your friends, extended family, and neighbors just might be the ones to kill you for your supplies.

    7. You get sick. Without our normal standards of cleanliness and the access to medical care, the likelihood of getting sick increases. Without the access to medical care, the likelihood of that sickness spiraling out of control is exponentially greater. Learn how to treat and manage sickness naturally so that you can get a handle on an illness before it kills you. This book is a fantastic reference, written with the prepper in mind.

    8. You get an infection. A silly little cut or splinter that we take for granted now could be a death sentence after the SHTF. With the possibility that your hygiene standards may drop and that you’ll be getting a lot dirtier doing physical labor, infection is fairly likely. It’s vital to immediately treat even the most trivial-seeming wound. For treating a wound, I can’t recommend this spray enough. I have used it on all sorts of animal infections that I thought would prove fatal, with 100% positive results. Because of this, we use it on our own wounds as soon as possible, too. That may not always be enough to prevent an infection however, so having the right antibiotics on hand could mean the difference between life and death. (Check out this antibiotic primer by Joe Alton of Dr. Bones fame) Many veterinary antibiotics are identical to those made for humans. You can find them on Amazon and add them to your stockpile.

    9. You die because you are fat and/or out of shape. If the Zombies approached and you found yourself outnumbered, are you fit enough to run away?  What if you had to bug out across the mountains? Would your heart hold up to the steep climb? Would your knees hold up to the descent? What if you add a 50 pound backpack? Now is the time to get yourself in shape. Most Americans lead fairly sedentary lives, sitting down to a desk all day for work. It’s not something you can fix overnight, so now is the time to increase your fitness. If you won’t do it for yourself, do it for the family members who will have to wait for you while you huff and puff. They’ll be killed when you slow them down. The road to fitness can start easily. If you can walk, you can improve your fitness level dramatically. This article discusses how to start out slowly and then build up your endurance and this PDF book will help you to reach a healthy body weight.

    10. You die when you daily medication runs out. This one is tougher to prevent. You can extend life expectancy by stockpiling medication but if the crisis outlasts your supply, there is a limit to what you can do. Who can forget the heartbreaking story of the diabetic girl in the book One Second After?  Don’t underestimate the difficulty for some of going without psychiatric drugs. Depending on the drug, withdrawal can be horrific, particularly if they have not been able to slowly wean themselves off. Some conditions,when untreated, can cause the sufferer to lose touch with reality and suffer a psychotic break, making them dangerous to themselves and others. Depending on the medication you require, there are sometimes natural alternatives and dietary tweaks that can help. Some existing conditions can be managed better now through lifestyle changes, which will increase your chances for survival later. For example, if you suffer from Type 2 Diabetes and are significantly overweight, improving your diet and losing weight now can reduce your dependence on daily medication in many cases. Keep in mind that some medications are okay after the expiration dates, while others can be deadly. (Learn more about pharmaceutical expiration dates HERE.) Learn everything you can about your medical condition and figure out a plan ahead of time.

    Good news: nearly all of these deaths will be preventable

    Now that you know how you’ll die, you can take the necessary steps to prevent it. Almost every cause of death mentioned here is entirely preventable.

    What will save you when an epic disaster strikes is what you do now to prepare for it. Make education and good health your mission now and you’ll not only survive the SHTF, you’ll thrive against the odds.

  • China's "Horizontal Skyscraper" Nears Completion (Video)

    A megastructure featuring the world’s tallest sky bridge has been erected in the southwestern Chinese city of Chongqing.

    Designed by the world’s most renowned and prolific architects, Moshe Safdie, Raffles City Chongqing complex measures 1.12-million-square-meters and consists of eight towers and a large connecting sky bridge, which is called a “horizontal skyscraper.”

    The 250-meter-long sky bridge – which is basically a horizontal “skyscraper” resting on the to of several traditional skyscrapers – dubbed Crystal, if made vertical, would be the height of the Eiffel Tower. The sky bridge is composed of 3,000 glass panels and 5,000 aluminum panels.

    When open, it will have an observatory wing, sky gardens, an infinity pool, and shopping district. At night, the sky bridge transforms into a large light beam, illuminating the sky into a heavenly light show.

    The Raffles City Chongqing complex will feature a 230,000-square-meter shopping mall, 1,400 residential apartments, an upscale hotel, and 160,000 square meters of office space.

    The eighth and final skyscraper of the $3.8 billion project was completed earlier this month. This novel piece of engineering resides at the heart of Chongqing, facing the intersection of the Yangtze and Jialing rivers.

    Developer CapitaLand, one of China’s biggest real estate development firms, announced the ribbon-cutting ceremony is expected to take place in the second half of 2019.

    According to Lucas Loh, deputy CEO and CIO of CapitaLand China, exotic perennial plants are being imported from around the country to “enliven the sky bridge,” which will feature one of the tallest observation decks in Western China.

    “After six years of construction using state of the art engineering technologies, we are proud to present in Raffles City Chongqing an iconic architectural form resembling a powerful sail surging forward on the historic Chaotianmen site,” Loh said in a statement.

    Check out the video below by CapitaLand China that shows the evolution of the build.

  • 9 Artificial Intelligence Trends You Should Keep An Eye On In 2019

    Authored by Irfan Ahmed Khan via Hackernoon.com,

    Artificial Intelligence has become a hot topic in tech circles. It has not only changed our lives, but it has also disrupted every industry you can think of. Despite all this, people have different perception about it. Some might consider it as a bad thing because they are told that it will take your job away from you in near future. On the other hand, AI advocates continue to think of AI as an enabler which will reduce your burden and make your life easy by automating things.

    Whether you like AI or not, if you are interested in what AI has in store for the future, then you are at the right place. In this article, we will look at some of the biggest AI trends that will dominate in 2019.

    1) AI Enabled Chips Will Go Mainstream

    Unlike other technologies and software tools, AI depend heavily on specialized processors. To meet the complex demands of AI, chip manufacturers will create specialized chips capable of running AI enabled applications.

    Even tech giants such as Google, Facebook and Amazon will spend more money on these specialized chips. These chips would be used for specialized purposes involving AI such as natural language processing, computer vision and speech recognition.

    2) AI and IoT Meet At The Edge

    2019 will be the year when we will see convergence of different technologies with AI. IoT will join hands with AI on edge computing layer. Industrial IoT will harness the power of AI for root cause analysis, performing predictive maintenance of machinery and detect issues automatically.

    We will see the rise of Distributed AI in 2019. Intelligence would be decentralized and will be located closer to the assets and devices that are carrying out routine checks. Highly sophisticated machine learning models that is powered by neural networks will be optimized to run on edge.

    3) Say “Hello” To AutoML

    One of the biggest trend that will dominate the AI industry in 2019 would be automated machine learning (AutoML). With automated learning capabilities, developers will be able to tinker with machine learning models and create new machine learning models that are ready to handle future AI challenges.

    AutoML will find the middle ground between cognitive APIs and custom machine learning platforms. The biggest advantage of automated machine learning would be that it offers developers the customization options they demand without forcing them to go through the complicated workflow. When you combine data with portability, AutoML can give you the flexibility you wont find with other AI technologies.

    4) Welcome to AIOps

    When AI is applied to how we develop applications, it will transform the way we used to manage the infrastructure. DevOps will be replaced by AIOps and it will enable your IT department staff to conduct precise root cause analysis.

    Additionally, it will make it easy for you to find useful insights and patterns from huge data set in no time. Large scale enterprises and cloud vendors will benefit from the convergence of DevOps with AI.

    5) Neural Network Integration

    One of the biggest challenges that AI developers will face when developing neural network models will be to select the best framework. With dozens of AI tools available in the market, choosing the best AI tool might not be as easy as it used to be.

    The lack of integration and compatibility among different neural network toolkits is hampering AI adoption. Tech giants such as Microsoft and Facebook are already working on developing an Open Neural Network Exchange (ONNX). This will let developers reuse neural network models across multiple frameworks.

    6) Specialized AI Systems Becomes a Reality

    The demand for specialized systems will grow exponentially in 2019. Organization have limited data at their disposal but what they want is specialized data.

    This will force businesses to acquire tools that can help them generate high quality AI data internally. The focus will shift from quantity of data to quality of data in 2019. This will lay the foundation for AI that could work in real world situations. Companies will look towards specialized AI solution providers who have access to key data sources and could help them make sense out of their unstructured data.

    7) AI Skills Will Decide Your Fate

    Even though, Artificial Intelligence have transformed every industry you can think of but there is still shortage of talent who have AI skills in abundance. Pat Calhoun, CEO of Espressive said, “Most organizations want to embrace AI as part of their digital transformation but do not have the developers, AI experts, and linguists to develop their own or to even train the engines of pre-built solutions to deliver on the promise.”

    Rahul Kashyap, CEO of Awake Security added, “With so many ‘AI-powered’ solutions available to address a myriad of business concerns, it’s time enterprises get smarter about what’s happening within the ‘black box’ of their AI solutions.” He continues, “The way in which Artificial Intelligence algorithms are trained, structured, or informed can lead to significant differences in output. The right equation for one company won’t be the right equation for another.”

    8) AI Will Get into Wrong Hands

    Just like a coin which has two sides, AI also has a positive side and a negative side to it. IT security professionals will use AI to detect malicious activities quickly. You can be able to reduce false positives by 90% with the help of AI driven response and machine learning algorithms.

    AI will land into wrong hands and cyber criminals with malicious designs will abuse it to fulfill their motives. With automation, armies of cyber attackers can launch lethal attacks with greater success. This will force enterprises to fight fire with fire and invest in AI powered security solutions capable of protecting them from such AI driven attacks.

    9) AI Powered Digital Transformation

    In 2019, AI will be everywhere. From web applications to health care systems, airline to hotel booking systems and beyond, we will see shades of AI everywhere and it will be at the forefront of digital transformation.

    Dr. Tung Bui, Chairman of IT department and professor at University of Hawaii said, “Unlike most of the predictions and discussions about how autonomous vehicles and robots will eventually affect the job market — this is true but will take time due to institutional, political, and social reasons — I contend that the biggest trend in AI will be an acceleration in the digital transformation, making existing business systems smarter.”

  • Construction Begins On 30-Foot-High San Diego Border Wall

    Construction crews broke ground on a 14-mile stretch of border barrier replacement in San Diego, according to Fox 5 news. 

    The existing steel-mesh fence – often breached with commonly sold battery-operated saws – is being replaced with 30-foot-high steel bollards according to an announcement by US Customs and Border Protection. 

    A $101 million contract was awarded to SLSCO Ltc. of Galveston, Texas to perform the work, with options for an additional $30 million in funding. 

    The bollards replace a second layer of barrier that worked like a fortress when it was built about a decade ago but is now often breached with powerful battery-operated saws sold in home improvement stores.

    Work on replacing a first layer of San Diego barrier is nearly complete, also 14 miles long and made of steel bollards up to 30-feet  high. The old fence, built in the early 1990s, was made of corrugated steel matting used by the military as temporary runways. –Fox 5

    The Trump administration has been unsuccessfully sued by California as well as major environmental groups over various wall projects in the state, claiming that the administration overreached its authority when it waived environmental reviews in order to expedite construction. 

    The Department of Homeland Security cited a 1996 law giving the Secretary of Homeland Security the authority to waive legal requirements for the installation of “additional fencing, walls, roads, lighting, cameras and sensors on the southwest border.”

    The San Diego groundbreaking comes days after Trump declared a national emergency to build his proposed border wall with Mexico – which his administration is now being sued over by 16 states spearheaded by California. 

    Thus far the Trump administration has awarded $1 billion in contracts to cover 97 miles of border, most of which will replace existing barriers. Work is expected to begin later this month on a 14-mile stretch in Texas’ Rio Grande Valley. 

  • The Debt Accrued Through Dollar Hegemony Is Unpayable (Except In Hyperinflated Dollars)

    Authored by Michael Doliner via Counterpunch.org,

    The United States Entity lost the war in Iraq. That fact determines the Entity’s position in the Middle East today.

    After having destroyed Saddam’s army and dispossessing the Sunnis in favor of the Shi’ites, after Abu Ghraib and it’s indelible pictures, after the total destruction of Fallujah, in short after a victory achieved with the utmost brutality, contempt and humiliation of Iraq and Iraqis, the Entity was in charge. Then the “insurgents” appeared. They put improvised explosive devices along the roads so, with a phone call, they could destroy patrols of the Entity. They made car bombs so that every vehicle approaching a check-point might spell doom. They donned suicide vests to blow themselves and any nearby Entity soldiers up. Entity soldiers couldn’t go into the streets. Every move they made could be their last. The enemy was everywhere and nowhere. These people would rather die then be ruled by these idiotic mechanized barbarians. Everything seemed peaceful, but at any moment, out of nowhere, they could be blown to pieces.

    That kind of thing wears on you. Their patrols, pointless bouts of Russian roulette, ended up as parked “search and avoid” missions. Life went on without the clanking monsters. Entity bases were like Kaposi sarcoma in AIDS patients. The Entity’s attempts at reconstruction were comically inept – roads to nowhere and chicken processing plants for chickens no one wanted. In short the Entity’s occupation of Iraq after the victory, other than being a disaster of comical incompetence, was non-existent. Muqtada Al-Sadr, the Shi’ite cleric, had much more power than the Entity. Eventually Iraq rejected the Entity’s status of forces agreement (SOFA). In other words the Iraqi puppets the Entity had installed unceremoniously kicked the Entity out of the country.

    Until that time the Entity had been running a protection racket in the Middle East. But after the loss of Iraq these threats seemed a lot less plausible. The game was: oil had to be sold in dollars. Know as Dollar Hegemony, this racket allowed the Entity to print money. Oil backed the dollar just as gold once had. Governments had to maintain large supplies of dollars to protect against “emergencies,” that is, dollar shortages during speculative attacks on their currencies. “To prevent speculative and manipulative attacks on their currencies, the world’s central banks must acquire and hold dollar reserves in corresponding amounts to their currencies in circulation.” The Entity enforced dollar hegemony with military threats. One of the most important reasons for the Entity’s attack on Iraq was Saddam’s abandoning of dollar hegemony. He had begun to sell oil in euros. The Entity had to stop that. It invaded, and as soon as it was victorious, reversed that policy. Dollar hegemony restored. But the loss in Iraq revealed The Entity’s protection racket as a bluff. It’s threats were suddenly unconvincing.

    Pressed by Entity sanctions, Iran began to sell oil for other currencies after 2007. The Entity was not going to invade Iran! A look at the map reveals just what a catastrophe that would be. As soon as hostilities started, even before a shot was fired, no one would insure tankers going through the Straits of Hormuz, and the tanker owners would not send them through without insurance. Twenty percent of the world’s supply of oil would disappear with no more military action than the commencement of hostilities. The world economy would tank, and this time fall into chaos. There was no way the Entity could even think about occupying Iran after the debacle in Iraq. And there was no way to protect The Entity fleet in Bahrain. They would be sitting ducks anywhere in the Persian Gulf. If they were destroyed the Entity would lose unless it launched nuclear weapons. World War III would be on. Only madmen would even consider doing this.

    The Entity had abused dollar hegemony over the years by simply printing dollars. The Entity ran huge trade deficits every year. China, Japan and all other countries had had to keep reserves of dollars if they were to purchase oil and protect their currencies. These were like never- having-to-be-repaid loans to the Entity. If other currencies could be used they would dump these reserves because the only thing preventing inflation of these dollars had been dollar hegemony, backing the dollar with oil. Iran doing business in non-dollar currencies is like a leak in a dike.

    Russia, China, India and Japan are now unloading dollars carefully, so as not to cause a panic. But they are steadily unloading them. They see dollar hegemony disappearing. Naturally, Saudi Arabia sees what is happening, and is not that enamored of the dollar either. As long as they thought the Entity protected them from Iran and, of course, from the Entity itself, they went along with it. Now the Entity is impotent to enforce dollar hegemony. The dollars the Saudis take for their oil today will be worth a whole lot less tomorrow if dollar hegemony ends. They are wavering, especially after Trump scolded them for murdering Kashoggi. Naughty, naughty MBS. They know the Entity cannot protect them from Iran, and they are panicking.

    The Entity’s hive mind, for it’s part, refuses to accept the Iraq failure as having revealed its weakness. It still wants to maintain dollar hegemony and its protection racket. The end of dollar hegemony is an existential threat to The Entity. Originally The Entity exchanged securities for these dollars, one piece of paper for another, or more likely bits of code, with the Federal Reserve. Then it spent them, mostly on the military. The Federal Reserve unloaded these dollar-denominated securities to whoever had faith in the dollars they could exchange them for. Nice work if you can get it, but securities are debt. The Entity is so far in debt that it pays almost a trillion dollars in debt service annually. To do so it needs more dollars and to sell more securities. Faith in this Ponzi scheme might waver. If everyone unloads dollar securities the entity will have to print more dollars, and sell more securities to buy them. Otherwise their price will crash. But what real something or other will these dollars buy given how many will be floating around? For there will be no other buyers unless the dollars can buy something real. The Securities will then be worthless. If Entity securities become worthless so will the dollar. Bye-bye Entity.

    The hive-mind’s strategy is to simply deny what has happened, the ostrich maneuver. The Entity didn’t lose in Iraq, it hasn’t as a consequence lost all credibility in the Middle East, dollar hegemony is salvageable, and the Entity might still attack Iran after all. The continuation of dollar hegemony requires a world in which Humpty-Dumpty gets back together.

    If only Iran could be put back in the box of dollar hegemony all would go back to what it was. In 2012 the Entity blocked Iran from the SWIFT messaging system for making international payments as punishment for straying from dollar hegemony, the first time that system had ever been used politically. It froze Iranian funds and the trust required for international banking was destroyed. However, Iran continued on its wayward path. Now the Entity withdraws from the JAPOCA, which was very beneficial to all other signers. Obedience to the Entity’s sanctions against Iran is bringing the interests of much of Europe into conflict with those of the Entity.

    Without dollar hegemony the dollar will hyper-inflate and destroy the Entity. To restore dollar hegemony it was thought essential that Iran return to the dollar hegemony fold. Why then did Obama sign the treaty with Iran, the JAPOCA? Obama signed the Iran Treaty because of Hassan Rouhani and his party. Rouhani, as President of Iran, was a “moderate” and he had succeeded Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the notorious hardliner who refused to even negotiate with the Entity. Ahmadinejad had called directly for the end of dollar hegemony. Rouhani won by arguing that he could relieve Entity sanctions on Iran through negotiations. Obama must have hoped that Rouhani could restore Iran to the dollar-hegemony fold. Perhaps a little coup d’état. He was, Obama must have hoped, our man in Tehran. The JAPOCA, which would relieve Iran of some sanctions, would prove to Iran that going along with Entity wishes, in particular dollar hegemony, was good for them. Rouhani was the guy who promised good things for Iran from a rapprochement with the Entity. Without the successful negotiation of the JAPOCA, Rouhani would fail.

    The actual contents of the Iran deal, with its various detailed restrictions on Iranian nuclear research and enrichment of Uranium, was a drawn-out shadow play. In the end, Obama demanded only what Rouhani could give. Neocons in the shadows complained that he gave too much, as has Trump. Ahmadinejad, on the Iranian side, said it wouldn’t work, and complained that Iran got too little. In any case it was all a shadow play. Iran had no program to develop nuclear weapons. American Intelligence Agencies all agreed that it had been abandoned in 2003. Actually, it had never existed. Nevertheless, the two sides hammered out various conditions, dragged out the negotiations interminably, and carefully crafted the agreement to be acceptable to both sides. All of this was to present an appearance that would strengthen Rouhani and protect Obama’s rear. Only the lifting of some Entity sanctions was real. That was Rouhani’s win, and in return Rouhani would, Obama hoped, return Iran to the fold or at least “pave the way.”

    But Rouhani would not or could not do any such thing. Although he did want to open Iran to the West, he would not restore dollar hegemony. When Rouhani did not do what the Entity hoped, it abandoned him and with him the JAPOCA, which Obama signed only to prop him up. That was the end of any hope for a Ukraine style regime change in Iran. At that point the Entity had to reestablish itself as the bully of the Middle East, which meant it had to threaten to attack Iran. Otherwise even Saudi Arabia, mortally afraid of Iran, wavering on dollar hegemony, and no longer believing in Entity protection, might itself abandon dollar hegemony. That would be curtains.

    Earlier this year, the Chinese Ambassador Li Huaxin was pictured with Saudi officials as he praised Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, which calls for stronger economic cooperation between the two nations. This pact pressures Saudi Arabia to adopt the “petro-yuan,” which would effectively axe the petrodollar. Although Saudi Arabia relies heavily on U.S. military power, Saudi Arabia warming ties with China closeness are alarming. China’s growing economy and standing in the world could undermine the attitude towards the United States. Above anything else, a shift in alliances could threaten America’s standing in the Middle East and world.

    The Entity, unable to face the truth, pretended its position in the Middle East had not changed. It had to punish misbehavior. Withdrawal from the JAPOCA was the first step, even though everyone admitted that Iran had not breached the agreement. Withdrawal from a signed agreement made the Entity no longer “agreement capable”, as Putin commented, for no one could trust its word. Trump’s blathering about a new agreement was nonsense. Diplomacy, for the Entity, is henceforth “off the table.” Europe’s slavish obedience to the Entity exposed its governments as puppets of the Entity to the benefit of the rising pan-European nationalist sentiment hostile to Entity hegemony. The Entity had to reignite its threats against Iran. But this just revived Obama’s dilemma, for the Entity cannot attack Iran without igniting WWIII.

    With the credibility the Entity had had while it pretended to be the United States gone, and attacking Iran impossible for any sane entity, Trump is left with only one option if he is to maintain dollar hegemony: to go insane. The only alternative to going insane is to not attack Iran, allow dollar hegemony to dissipate (as is inevitable anyway), and so end The Entity– for the debt accrued through dollar hegemony is unpayable, except in hyperinflated dollars.

  • Soaring Canadian Insolvencies Cripple Local Banks

    Banks in Canada are starting to feel the pain of deteriorating credit quality, just weeks after we reported that insolvency filings had skyrocketed in almost all Canadian provinces. 

    Toronto-Dominion Bank and Canadian Imperial Bank of Canada both just posted ugly first quarter results that included higher provisions for loan losses as a key contributor to missing analyst expectations. TD Bank saw its provision for loan losses move to C$850 million, which was up 23% from the year prior. It also marked the highest level for such provisions in at least two years, mainly split between the bank’s U.S. and Canadian retail divisions (36% each), followed by the bank’s corporate division. 

    Toronto-Dominion’s Chief Financial Officer Riaz Ahmed told Bloomberg that bankruptcies were part of the issue in Canada: 

    “The fourth quarter and the first quarter of the year always tend to have elevated provisions because of the holiday spending season, so we tend to see that seasonality in cards and auto. In Canada, bankruptcies are up a little bit and we do see a little bit of rise in delinquency in our retail cards in the U.S. None of them would rise to the level of being of particular concern for us.”

    In early January, we highlighted that bankruptcies in Canada were soaring. Bloomberg reported then that the number of consumers seeking debt relief was up 5.1% to 11,320 last November, according to the Ottawa-based Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy. Combining October and November’s numbers, there were 22,961 consumer insolvency filings, the most since 2011.

    These new numbers come on the heels of the bank of Canada raising its key lending rate five times since the middle of 2017. Like in the US, the impact of rising rates on the economy is being “monitored closely”, which is a nice way to say “obsessed over by central banks in order to continue to force all asset classes to rise in price”.

    David Lewis, a board member at the Canadian Association of Insolvency and Restructuring Professionals, told Bloomberg: 

    “We’re seeing a bump, and in some provinces that bump is significant.” 

    Insolvency filings were up in every province except PEI, which was unchanged. Alberta saw insolvencies rise 16%. Filings in Ontario were estimated to have risen 1% in 2018 after declining for eight straight years. Insolvency firm Hoyes, Michalos & Associates Inc. estimates that Ontario will see a minimum of a 2% to 5% jump in insolvency filings in 2019. If rates continue to rise, they predict as much as an 8% jump.

  • How A "Giant Ponzi Scheme" Destroyed This Nation's Economy

    Authored by Antony Sguazzin via Bloomberg.com,

    Almost two decades of profligate monetary policy has destroyed Zimbabwe’s economy and fueled rampant inflation, decimating the savings of its people twice.

    Hyperinflation of as much as 500 billion percent in 2008 made savings worthless and led to the abolition of the local currency in favor of the dollar the following year. In 2016, former President Robert Mugabe’s cash-strapped government introduced securities known as bond notes that it insisted traded at par with the dollar. In 2018, it separated cash from electronic deposits in banks without reserves to back them, causing the black-market rate to plunge.

    Last week, it threw in the towel and allowed bond notes to trade at a market-determined level, once again slashing the value of savings. The decision came after the southern African nation faced shortages of bread and fuel, was hit by strikes and protests, and President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s drive to attract new investment floundered.

    “At the root of this is the currency crisis,” said Derek Matyszak, a Zimbabwe-based research consultant for South Africa’s Institute for Security Studies.

    “This is analogous to them creating a giant Ponzi scheme that originated under Mugabe. What we are seeing now is that Ponzi scheme collapsing.”

    ‘1-to-1 Fiction’

    The latest step, while welcomed by what’s left of the country’s business sector, is unlikely to solve Zimbabwe’s problems because all it does is reflect exchange rates on the black market, according to Steve H. Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore.

    “The 1-to-1 is a fiction,” Hanke said.

    “They are saying officially we are going to condone what has been happening anyway. It officially says, ‘we robbed you.’”

    The interbank rate for the new currency is about 2.5 to the dollar, data published on the central bank’s website shows. That figure is meaningless because the authorities are failing to divulge the volume of trade, according to marketwatch.co.zw, a website run by financial analysts. It estimates the black-market rate for the bond notes is 3.31 per dollar.

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    The origins of Zimbabwe’s currency crisis stretch back to a violent land-reform program initiated by Mugabe in 2000, which slashed export income and devastated government finances.

    In response, then-Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe Governor Gideon Gono, known as ‘God’s banker’ because of his close ties to Mugabe, increased printing of Zimbabwe dollars exponentially to pay government workers, stoking inflation and eventually making the currency valueless.

    Printing Money

    “It was a Ponzi scheme in the past,” said Ashok Chakravarti, an economist and lecturer at the University of Zimbabwe.

    “Especially in the Gono era, where that chap just kept printing money.” Gono didn’t answer a call to a mobile phone number he has used in the past.

    The currency’s collapse led to the predicament Zimbabwe now finds itself in — chronic cash shortages and rampant inflation.

    By late 2008, some Zimbabweans had reverted to barter trade as illicit dealings in foreign currencies flourished. In February 2009, the answer the government came up with was to switch to the use of foreign currencies, mainly the U.S. dollar.

    “Dollarization puts a hard budget constraint on the system,” said Hanke.

    “You can’t go to the central bank or any other government institution to get credit for the government.”

    Repaying Debt

    The pressure on government finances led to history repeating itself, with a loophole being found: the introduction of bond notes and locally denominated electronic money. That contributed to money in circulation growing to more than $10 billion, according to George Guvamatanga, the permanent secretary in the Finance Ministry. The figure was $6.2 billion in 2013, said Tendai Biti, a senior opposition leader and former finance minister.

    “If you continue to print money you are destroying what you are creating,” Guvamatanga said. Under a stabilization program introduced by Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube in October, the government is now repaying domestic debt, has stopped issuing Treasury bills and has no overdraft with the central bank.

    That’s helped the economy move toward “walking on two legs, there is an effort to go in a different direction. It’s an inevitable adjustment.”” Chakravarti said.

    “It’s very unfortunate that this is the second time in 10 years people have lost the value of their savings. In 2009 we all went down to zero including me.”

    For some observers the latest development isn’t a sudden discovery of fiscal discipline. It’s another admission of failure and the victims are Zimbabwe’s people.

    Zero Savings

    To Biti, who says the new currency will fail because it isn’t backed by reserves, it shows the country has come full circle.

    “They have through the back door reintroduced the Zimbabwe dollar,” he said.

    “It’s theft because people had regrouped and rebuilt their lives from zero based on the U.S. dollar.”

    The country’s best hope is to join southern Africa’s Common Monetary Area, which is dominated by South Africa and its rand, Biti said. That would give certainty to business and impose fiscal discipline on the government, as opposed to the current arrangements that are unsustainable, he said.

    “It’s a Ponzi economy,” he said.

  • In Stunning Interview, Bill Gross Reveals Asperger's Diagnosis, Endorses MMT And Praises Ocasio-Cortez

    It has been nearly a month since Bill Gross announced his plans to retire from the asset-management industry (an announcement that, sadly, wasn’t exactly surprising following a flood of redemptions from his Janus Unconstrained Bond Fund over the prior year). But after what appeared to be an exit interview of sorts where Gross discussed the legacy of QE, whether the Fed “got in his way”, and the limitations of the “unconstrained” bond fund model, the legendary bond investor – who built Pimco – the Newport Beach asset manager he founded back in the 1970s – into one of the largest money managers in the world (while racking up a legendary string of returns at its flagship Pimco Total Return fund, which swelled to more than $300 billion AUM under his management) – Gross sat down for a 90-minute conversation with Bloomberg, ostensibly to commemorate his final day in the office before beginning his “next chapter”.

    Describing that conversation as illuminating would be an understatement. During a wide-ranging discussion, Gross offered a wildly different outlook on monetary policy, the deficit and the reasons behind his successes – and failures – as an investor and fund manger (remember, Gross was infamously ousted from Pimco back in 2014 after clashing with other managers, including his former right-hand man Mohamed El-Erian). And – oh yeah- he revealed that he had been diagnosed with Aspergers, a form of autism, as an adult, a condition that, Gross said, may have exacerbated many of his interpersonal conflicts (not only at Pimco, but also in his marriage, which recently ended in a notoriously acrimonious tabloid divorce).

    Bill

    In another highlight from the interview, Gross, a longtime QE critic, sounded – as BBG described it – like a “near-convert to Modern Monetary Theory”. Speaking for the first time on record about his increasingly liberal politics, the one-time deficit hawk said he wouldn’t see a problem with the federal government pushing the deficit out to $2 trillion, if the Fed would commit to a Japanese-style open-ended program of deficit monetization. He also expressed admiration for “Democratic Socialist” Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and even endorsed her plans for a 70% marginal tax rate on incomes over $10 million (though Gross said, if he had his druthers, the top rate wouldn’t be quite so high). In a sound bite that was more reminiscent of Bernie Sanders than Benjamin Graham, and directly contradicted Donald Trump’s vow that the US would never become a socialist country, Gross said he wouldn’t be surprised if a socialist was elected to the highest office in the land in the not-too-distant future.

    When it comes to how his diagnosis impacted his investing decisions, Gross credited it for helping him stay focused on investing, even when personal issues got in the way.

    Here’s a breakdown of the interview’s most stunning claims, courtesy of BBG:

    Unlimited deficits

    As a bond-market investor, Gross had to have views on monetary and fiscal policy, and he shared them publicly in the investment outlooks he posted regularly on Pimco’s website and, later, on Janus’s. One consistent thread was a critique of budget deficits, zero percent interest rates and quantitative easing. He wrongly predicted they’d spark runaway inflation and hurt returns on stocks and bonds.

    Now, Gross appears to be revisiting those views. Although he still believes low-rate policies destroy the risk-reward relationship in a market economy, he recognizes that the government and the Federal Reserve can work together to combat deflationary forces like America’s aging population and Amazon.com.

    “Why can’t the government have a $2 trillion deficit if the Fed is simply going to buy it, like they do in Japan?” Gross said. “Well, Jim Grant would say, ‘Mmm, it would be inflationary.’ But it hasn’t been. So, yeah, I would say Trump or the next president, whoever he or she is, could go to $2 trillion, as long as the Fed was willing to accommodate.”

    Asperger’s

    That’s the Bill Gross his former colleagues at Pimco will recognize. For years, they found him aloof, volatile and seemingly lacking in empathy. Symptoms of the disorder range widely, according to the Autistic Self Advocacy Network, and can include degrees of difficulty with social interactions and communication, as well as deeply focused thinking and a preference for consistency and order.

    Gross kept his diagnosis a secret, sharing it with close friends, and dropping only one hint publicly. In a February 2016 blog post on investing, Gross speculated as to why he wasn’t included as a character in Lewis’s best-seller: “Perhaps I wasn’t addled enough like co-star hedge fund manager Michael Burry, who I share affection for and an affliction (and it’s not a glass eye).”

    While Gross says he’s “sort of proud” of his condition because “it explains a lot about me,” he no longer believes it’s as much of an advantage professionally.

    “The markets are substantially different today than they were when I started, more day-to-day, more robotic, more machine-dominated,” he said. “So it’s not a negative, but it’s probably not as much of a positive.”

    […]

    That’s a lot for anyone to take, let alone a portfolio manager responsible for hundreds of millions of dollars in client money. Yet Gross says he was able to maintain focus and doesn’t blame his personal ordeals for poor investment decisions.

    “I’m an Asperger, and Aspergers can compartmentalize,” he said, revealing his diagnosis publicly for the first time. “They can operate in different universes without the other universes affecting them as much. Yeah, I had a nasty divorce, and I still had, you know, feelings about Pimco. But I think I did pretty well in compartmentalizing them. Not that I didn’t wake up in the middle of the night and start damning one side or the other. But when I came to work it was all business.”

    […]

    The reason he failed to deliver better returns at Janus is much simpler: “I made some bad trades.”

    Gross learned he has Asperger’s only after reading Michael Lewis’s “The Big Short.” In one passage, Lewis recounts the unusual characteristics of one of the book’s heroes, Michael Burry, a doctor-turned-investor who also was diagnosed with the condition as an adult. Gross recognized that he shared many of the same qualities and had similarly obsessive habits. He went to a psychiatrist, who confirmed the condition.

    “It’s allowed me to stay at 30,000 feet as opposed to being on the ground,” Gross said, discussing why he thinks Asperger’s probably made him a better investor, if also infamously short-tempered. “That’s not necessarily good in terms of one-to-one. People think you’re angry or an a-hole or whatever. But it helps you to focus on the longer-term things without getting mixed up in the details.”

    MMT

    Gross, long one of the most vocal critics of post-crisis stimulus, now sounds like a near-convert to modern monetary theory. He says deflation poses a huge challenge for central banks, admires what Japan has done to revive its moribund economy and thinks the U.S. government should consider doubling the size of its deficit.

    And the billionaire and registered Republican agrees with Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez that the rich should pay more in taxes – if not quite the 70 percent she’s proposing at the margin. It’s a “necessary evil” to correct the failings of American capitalism, Gross says, adding that if inequality persists there’ll be a “revolution at the ballot box.”

    A Socialist in the White House?

    Gross believes tax rates on high earners need to be raised to restore balance in American capitalism and fund benefits for the middle class, such as access to affordable health care. That’s why he’s sympathetic to Ocasio-Cortez, the congressional freshman who has energized the left wing of the Democratic Party, even if he doesn’t agree with all her ideas.

    “Maybe the next time, the next election, there will be a ‘socialist’ in the White House” he said. “The wealthy have been advantaged for a long time and certainly the past few years with the tax cuts. The middle class hasn’t necessarily suffered, but the gap has increased.”

    Taxes

    The question is how heavy the tax burden should be. Other billionaires, such as Oaktree Capital Group LLC’s Howard Marks, have warned against the consequences of “confiscatory taxes.” Gross says a top marginal rate of 70 percent – the number floated by Ocasio-Cortez – would be too high.

    “I just think Trump took it too far,” he said.

    Will there be another bond king?

    Gross said he wants to be remembered for investing clients’ savings profitably and helping to build a “wealth-creating machine” at Pimco. That leaves only one question: Will there be another bond market king?

    Probably not, according to Gross. One reason is the proliferation of passive investment vehicles. Anyone who claims to be a king of index funds is “just a puppet because the market is making the decisions.” Gross volunteered that he wouldn’t pick Jeffrey Gundlach, the chief executive officer and co-founder of DoubleLine Capital who’s frequently cited as the new king. If anyone, he said it might be Scott Minerd, the chief investment officer at Guggenheim Partners, in part because of his “great long-term perspective.”

    “In the right environment, 20 years ago, he could have been a bond king,” Gross said. “But I don’t think he’s got the market or maybe the willingness to be a king. Who would? Well, I guess I did. In retrospect it carries a certain burden. The crown is heavy.”

    And with that, Gross is off to spend his days playing golf and waking up at the (for Gross) uncharacteristically late hour of 6:30 am PT. However, he won’t ever entirely disconnect from markets: He’s planning to manage his $1.4 billion fortune (and the $500 million in his charitable foundation) in his one-man family office. But at the still-spry age of 74, we wouldn’t rule out the possibility that Gross might one day grow bored and decide to give managing outside money another shot.

  • An Arms Race Begins: Deadly AI Tanks – The U.S. Military's Next Project

    Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

    The United States military is going to attempt to build deadly artificial intelligence-driven tanks.  Dubbed Project ATLAS, this type of tank would lead to the first autonomous ground combat vehicles.

    According to Quartz, the Advanced Targeting and Lethality Automated System (ATLAS) would theoretically give a tank the ability to do everything necessary to take down a target except pull the trigger. A human operator will still need to actually fire the weapon that will kill another human being. The United States Army has already called on experts in the field to help it develop this deadly technology. Eventually, it will allow a ground combat vehicle such a tank to automatically detect, target, and engage enemy combatants – without the risk of the operator losing their life.

    The U.S., with support from contractors like Boeing, has continued to develop AI-powered military technology even though some 26 countries have banned autonomous weapons development.  The U.S. Army, on the other hand, has the goal of automating the battlefield in order to make combat and war more efficient. For now, human operators are still required by law to be the ones making the final decision to fire.

      “It looks very much as if we are heading into an arms race where the current ban on full lethal autonomy will be dropped as soon as it’s politically convenient to do so,”University of California Berkeley computer scientist Stuart Russell told Quartz.

    “Anytime you can shave off even fractions of a second, that’s valuable,” Paul Scharre, program director at a national security think tank called the Center for New American Security, told Quartz according to Futurism.

     “A lot of engagement decisions in warfare are very compressed in time. If you’re in a tank and you see the enemy’s tank, they probably can also see you. And if you’re in range to hit them, they’re probably in range to hit you.”

    The United States Army has also already demoed an F-16 that flies and executes strikes all by itself. Humans have begun the fast process of removing what it means to be a human from society.

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