Jul 04

Today’s News 4th July 2020

  • Is America Heading For Civil War?
    Is America Heading For Civil War?

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 07/03/2020 – 23:10

    Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

    In last week’s article I discussed the issue of American “balkanization” and the rapid migration of conservatives and moderates from large population centers and states that are becoming militant in their progressive ideology. In my home state of Montana there has been a surge of people trying to escape the chaos and oppression of leftist states. Some are here because of the pandemic and the harsh restrictions they had to endure during the first lockdowns. Others are here because they can’t stand the hostility of identity politics, cancel culture and race riots. Either way, they are fleeing places with decidedly leftist influences.

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    Uprooting and moving to an entirely new place is not an easy thing to do, especially in the middle of a pandemic. For many people, such an idea would have been unthinkable only a few years ago. Believe me, moving to a place like the Rocky Mountain Redoubt is not an easy transition for most. Hopefully these people understand that they will have to make extensive preparations for the rough winter and be ready to work hard in the spring and summer months to survive. Maybe they don’t realize yet how tough it is here; maybe they know and don’t care.

    That’s how bad the situation has become – Rational and reasonable people are willing to leave behind their old life and risk it all to keep a margin of freedom.

    In my view it is clear that the political left has gone so far off the rails into its own cultism that there is no coming back. There can be no reconciliation between the two sides, so we must separate, or we must fight. I advocate for separation first for a number of reasons:

    • First and foremost, conservatives are the primary producers within American culture. If we leave the leftists to their own devices there is a chance they will simply implode in on themselves and eat each other because they have no idea how to fill the production void. The recent developments in the defunct CHAZ/CHOP autonomous zone are a perfect example. Those people don’t have the slightest clue what they are doing and it shows.

    • Second, if conservatives separate it provides a buffer that helps defuse future random conflicts. When you force the two sides into a box together eventually they will find a reason to try to kill each other. Putting some distance between them and us reduces the angst.

    • Third, if the leftists decide they don’t like that we have separated and are thriving on our own, and they attempt to antagonize or attack us where we live, then we hold the clear moral high ground when we smash them to pieces in response.

    I fully realize that the third outcome is the most likely. War is probably inevitable. Why? Because collectivists and narcissists are never satisfied. They desire unlimited control over the lives of others and they will use any means to get that control no matter how destructive. Separating from them is only a stop-gap that allows us to take the superior position. Through peaceful migration, we set the pace of the conflict. Eventually they will come after us, and there will be no doubt about our response then. There will be no way to spin the result in their favor, no way for them to play the victims.

    Some people might question if we are actually to the point of open conflict; they might accuse me of “doom mongering”. Others may argue that conservatives are acting “passive” and that we will never take any action. These assumptions are common right now because such people do not understand how history progresses and how group psychology evolves.

    Domestic war is not something pursued lightly, or haphazardly. The average person knows at least subconsciously that it is better to seek resolution or to remain patient as events unfold. Conservatives aren’t stupid; we know that before any civil war there is first a culture war. And, we know that the cards are stacked against us and that if we act rashly in any way we will lose position in that culture war.

    So, we let the leftists spit and rage like madmen for a little while. Each day people who were on the fence when it comes to the culture war are witnessing this and come over to our side because we’re the only side that is sane. The drawback is, there comes a point in which calm professionalism might be wrongly perceived as weakness. And when people sense weakness among conservatives, they might run into the arms of the extreme left thinking that it’s safer to join the “winning team”.

    I think conservatives have not been sucked into a reactionary stance yet because they are thinking logically and refusing to play the game for now. In some ways it is how we enter the fight that is more important than the fight itself.  To understand why, we have to look at the bigger picture beyond the left/right conflict.

    As I noted last week, the political left is a tool for a greater agenda. They are being used as a weapon of chaos by globalist interests. This is not “conspiracy theory”, this is conspiracy fact. Millions of dollar have poured into Antifa and BLM related groups through elitist donors like George Soros and his Open Society Foundation as well as the Ford Foundation. Globalist institutions like these have been influencing the extreme left and promoting identity politics for DECADES. This is openly admitted. What we are witnessing in 2020 is simply the culmination of a half-century long propaganda campaign that created the modern feminist movement, victim group status, entitlement culture, etc.

    The reason for the agenda should be obvious: Chaos creates fear. Fear creates division and crisis. And, crisis creates opportunity (as globalist Rahm Emanuel once bragged). Meaning, the extreme left is going to start a war because that’s exactly what the global elites created them for.

    Now, some might suggest that this places conservatives in a Catch-22 position; if we don’t fight back then we will look weak. We will be culturally isolated and eventually overrun and wiped from the history books. If we do fight back we will be giving the globalists what they want – A civil war that will tear America apart.

    The suggestion by certain special interests will be that there is only one way out; use government power to turn the tide to our advantage. In other words, institute martial law. I don’t really see it that way.

    Once we understand that a fight is coming regardless, our task is to position ourselves with the most advantage possible while keeping our culture and our principles intact. This includes our belief in constitutionalism, civil liberties and opposition to tyranny in ANY form. Winning the fight is important, but maintaining our principles in the process is more important. Becoming a monster to fight the monster is the same as losing.

    When the left comes for us (and they will), the fight has to be won by us, not government. We cannot hand even more power to government in the name of security. We cannot become the fascists the leftists accuse us of being.

    I am often asked these days about my view of the 2020 election and how it will turn out. I did predict Trump’s election win in the summer of 2016 based on the idea that Trump’s presence in the White House would drive the left insane, as well as give the globalists a perfect “conservative” scapegoat for the economic collapse they had been engineering since at least 2008.

    Trump’s cabinet of global elitists suggests his complacency in this plan.  We still live under a one party system pretending as if it is a two party paradigm.

    Furthermore, I am not convinced there will even be an election in November. With pandemic lockdowns surely returning as infections spike once again, the US economy will be in ruins by winter. Voting in a traditional fashion will be difficult or restricted in some states. And, mail-in or digital ballots will not be accepted by most conservatives because of their history of being used to rig election outcomes.

    Look at it this way: If Trump “wins”, or delays the election, the left will riot and a civil war will be triggered. Conservatives will have to deal with the violence of the left while also dealing with the potential for martial law (which we cannot tolerate or support either). If Biden “wins”, it will be perceived by many conservatives who still think elections matter as a stolen presidency engineered through fraudulent ballot practices.

    To summarize, if Trump is still in the White House in 2021, get ready to fight back against leftist mobs as well as martial law measures. If you believe in freedom, realize that fake conservatives that support government tyranny will be as much a problem as Marxist lefties. If Biden enters the White House, expect him to immediately implement unconstitutional policies including medical tyranny, gun confiscation and martial law. Either way, it ends in war.

    It’s also the classic false choice narrative:  You can choose Marxism and communism, or you can choose fascism.  Communism being the elevation of the weak and the oppression of the strong in the name of arbitrary “equality”, and fascism being the elimination of the weak or less fortunate in the name of making more room for the strong.  Both sides rely on totalitarian government to assert dominance, and both sides benefit the elitist establishment.  The great con is that there is no third option, when there is; the non-aggression principle, citizen defense, voluntarism and freedom.

    Frankly, I almost prefer a scenario in which Biden and the left are perceived as stealing the election. At least then conservatives will be fully united once again and ready to fight, instead of passively relying on a Pied Piper like Trump to save them.

    The truth is, in 2020-2021 we stand at a massive nexus point in human history. We are spiraling into a decade and a fight that will decide the fate liberty for the next century or more. On one side stands the global elites and the useful idiots on the hard left. They will push for a collectivist system that erases all memory of the Constitutional Republic we once new, and they will get help from fake conservatives that value power over principle. On the other side stands the people that just want to be left alone; the free minds, the people that don’t need or desire to have power over anybody.

    If humanity is to have a future at all, the second group must continue to exist and prosper. They are the wellspring that feeds us, that gives us something to hope for. If the elites and the social justice mob take control, there can be no future for our species. They desire what they cannot and should not have. They value only what they can take from others. They have a hunger that can never be satiated. They will devour the world until there is nothing left while claiming they stand for the “greater good”. War cannot be avoided with such people; the only question is, will liberty minded people stay the course and stick by their principles or will they fall to their darker impulses to ensure victory?

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    If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch.  Learn more about it HERE.

     

  • What's At Risk: An 18-Month View Of A Post-COVID World
    What's At Risk: An 18-Month View Of A Post-COVID World

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 07/03/2020 – 22:35

    As the world continues to grapple with the effects of COVID-19, no part of society seems to be left unscathed. Fears are surmounting around the economy’s health, and dramatic changes in life as we know it are also underway.

    In today’s graphic, Visual Capitalist’s Iman Ghosh uses data from a World Economic Forum survey of 347 risk analysts to show the likelihood of major risks we face in the aftermath of the pandemic.

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    What are the most likely risks for the world over the next year and a half?

    The Most Likely Risks

    In the report, a “risk” is defined as an uncertain event or condition with the potential for significant negative impacts on various countries and industries. The 31 risks have been grouped into five major categories:

    • Economic: 10 risks

    • Societal: 9 risks

    • Geopolitical: 6 risks

    • Technological: 4 risks

    • Environmental: 2 risks

    Among these, risk analysts rank economic factors high on their list, but the far-reaching impacts of the remaining factors are not to be overlooked either. Let’s dive deeper into each category.

    Economic Shifts

    The survey reveals that economic fallout poses the most likely threat in the near future, dominating four of the top five risks overall. With job losses felt the world over, a prolonged recession has 68.6% of experts feeling worried.

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    The pandemic has accelerated structural change in the global economic system, but this does not come without consequences. As central banks offer trillions of dollars worth in response packages and policies, this may inadvertently burden countries with even more debt.

    Another concern is that COVID-19 is now hitting developing economies hard, critically stalling the progress they’ve been making on the world stage. For this reason, 38% of the survey respondents anticipate this may cause these markets to collapse.

    Social Anxieties

    High on everyone’s mind is also the possibility of another COVID-19 outbreak, despite global efforts to flatten the curve of infections.

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    With many countries moving to reopen, a few more intertwined risks come into play. 21.3% of analysts believe social inequality will be worsened, while 16.4% predict that national social safety nets could be under pressure.

    Geopolitical Troubles

    Further restrictions on trade and travel movements are an alarm bell for 48.7% of risk analysts—these relationships were already fraught to begin with.

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    In fact, global trade could drop sharply by 13-32% while foreign direct investment (FDI) is projected to decline by an additional 30-40% in 2020.

    The drop in foreign aid could also put even more stress on existing humanitarian issues, such as food insecurity in conflict-ridden parts of the world.

    Technology Overload

    Technology has enabled a significant number of people to cope with the impact and spread of COVID-19. An increased dependence on digital tools has enabled wide-scale remote working for business—but for many more without this option, this accelerated adoption has hindered rather than helped.

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    Over a third of the surveyed risk analysts see the emergence of cyberattacks due to remote working as a rising concern. Another near 25% see the threat of rapid automation as a drawback, especially for those in occupations that do not allow for remote work.

    Environmental Setbacks

    Last but certainly not least, COVID-19 is also potentially halting progress on climate action. While there were initial drops in pollution and emissions due to lockdown, some estimate there could be a severe bounce-back effect on the environment as economies reboot.

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    As a result of the more immediate concerns, sustainability may take a back seat. But with environmental issues considered the biggest global risk this year, these delayed investments and missed climate targets could put the Earth further behind on action.

    Which Risks Are of the Greatest Concern?

    The risk analysts were also asked which of these risks they considered to be of the greatest concern for the world. The responses to this metric varied, with societal and geopolitical factors taking on more importance.

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    In particular, concerns around another disease outbreak weighed highly at 40.1%, and tighter cross-border movement came in at 34%.

    On the bright side, many experts are also looking to this recovery trajectory as an opportunity for a “great reset” of our global systems.

    This is a virus that doesn’t respect borders: it crosses borders. And as long as it is in full strength in any part of the world, it’s affecting everybody else. So it requires global cooperation to deal with it.

    – Gita Gopinath, IMF Chief Economist

  • Something Worth Striving For
    Something Worth Striving For

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 07/03/2020 – 22:00

    Authored by MN Gordon via EconomicPrism.com,

    [Editor’s Note: This edition of the Economic Prism was originally published on July 04, 2019, as Independence Day in America Circa 2019.  The themes explored within are even more relevant today.  So we’ve dusted it off, made several updates, and are republishing it.  Enjoy!]

    Not Welcome

    The days are long and hot in the Northern Hemisphere when real American patriots spit upon their hands and hoist the stars and stripes.  On July 4, the free and brave, with duty and self-sacrifice, begrudgingly accept federal holiday pay to stand tall upon their own two feet.  Rugged individualism and uncompromising independence are essential to their character.

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    With purpose and intent, they assemble as merry mobs along the shoreline to celebrate American Independence.  Freedom lovers – descendants of Buffalo Bill – gather to eat hotdogs and pitch horseshoes while downing tipples of corn syrup and fermented grain.  When the sun slips beyond the western horizon and the stars twinkle bright, they hoot and holler at the brilliance of fireworks and sparkling pyrotechnics.

    Most years, these festivities certify that, even in an era of big government, there remains a time and place to revel in the virtues of representative self-rule.  All are usually welcome, of course, so long as their vehicles are registered, they’ve paid their income taxes, and have proper documentation.  But not this year.  At least, not in certain jurisdictions.

    After all, this is the age of coronavirus.  In some reaches of the land of the free, none are welcome.  For example, in Los Angeles County, the Board of Supervisors closed beaches, piers, beach bike paths, and beach access points from July 3 thru 6 “to prevent dangerous crowding.”

    According to the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department, violating the beach closure amounts to trespassing, which is punishable by fines up to $1,000.  Nonetheless, Sherriff Alex Villanueva said he will not enforce the order because the County is “Care First, Jails Last.”

    What to make of it?

    Right to assemble.  Freedom.  Liberty.  Independence.  Limited representative government.  Sound money.  Private property rights.  A humble and esteemable populace.  Avoidance of foreign entanglements.  Rafting down the Mississippi River.  Creedence Clearwater Revival.  Trim waist lines.

    These ideas, in truth, faded from daily life over the last century like the horse drawn plow.  Alas, the republic was lost long before Elvis popped his last pill.  Washington’s casted nets have since ensnared the globe.  There’s little you can do to avoid getting caught up in its tangled web.

    But why spoil such a magical day with the truth?

    Instead, we’ll add to the magic with a look back to the not too distant past.  To a magical time and place – before the Department of Homeland Security, Facebook, Google, and contact tracers were around to track your every move.  Back when freedom was a little freer.  And currency destruction was a little subtler…before the Fed’s printing press was continuously dialed up to Brrrr.

    Creative Destruction

    Boiling points in politics, business, and popular culture are often exceeded with seemingly little advanced notice.  Then, in short order, a revolution explodes the status quo out of existence.  Not until later is it apparent that the pot was simmering for many years – or decades – before the eruption.

    In the early 1990s, Steve Rocco, a scrub freestyle skater from Hermosa Beach, delivered an epic haymaker to the corporate skateboard industry.  On a shoe string budget, financed with predator loans from a shark named Kirby, Rocco rapidly took down the big three skate companies that, in hindsight, had grown fat and stale.  In a classic case  of Joseph Schumpeter’s “gale of creative destruction,” he revolutionized the industry and subculture.

    The big skate companies, which had capitalized on the popular attraction of vert ramp skating in the late 1980s, had taken the sport to a place that was unreachable to the next generation of skaters.  To protect marketing investments in their sponsored pros, many which had fallen a step behind, the big skate companies operated as gate keepers; locking out new talent to the professional ranks.

    Rocco, through design innovation, relentless hustle, and savvy parody, exposed what had become an elitist industry.  In the blink of an eye, the old guard’s products were outdated, its brands were unhip, and its pros were lacking.  Sales collapsed.

    Street skating, which was accessible to any kid with a board, replaced vert skating as the forefront of the sport.  Rocco’s company, World Industries, capitalized on this like no other.  In fact, the documentary, The Man Who Souled the World, shows how he did it; in less than 90 minutes, and at no cost, you’ll learn more about entrepreneurship than any fancy business school could ever teach you.

    But that’s not all…

    Something Worth Striving For

    Rocco’s creative destruction of the skateboard industry opened up the sport to a new, and much larger cast of hungry kids.  World Industries, through partnerships and distribution agreements, unlocked the doors for many new skater owned and operated companies.  This, in effect, opened the flood gates to a massive wave of energy, urgency, youth, creativity, and angst, which crashed upon the industry in wild and unpredictable ways.

    For example, Plan B, established by Mike Ternasky (RIP) in 1991, was formed under a distribution agreement with World Industries.  Ternasky’s vison was to create a super team – to sponsor the most talented skaters, and actively push the limits of what’s physically possible.  Matt Hensley, Rodney Mullen, Danny Way, Colin McKay, Rick Howard, Mike Carroll, Pat Duffy, among others, rapidly progressed the sport beyond comprehension.

    Many inexplicable tricks were dreamed up and successfully executed by Plan B skaters.  The team’s creativity, excellence, style, grace, and ‘go big or go home’ ethos, was best demonstrated on July 9, 2005.  That’s when Danny Way, after suffering a devastating slam on his initial attempt the day before, stuck a mammoth 360 air over the Great Wall of China.

    Not since Genghis Khan, in 1216 AD, had the Great Wall been successfully breached.  But what’s the point?  Or, more aptly, what does Steve Rocco, World Industries, Danny Way or any of this have to do with Independence Day?

    Quite frankly, this has much more to do with American independence than eating hotdogs and knocking back several cans of suds at the beach.  Here’s the point…

    The U.S. economy, and by extension the world economy, has reached a boiling point.  You can see it.  You can feel it.  You can hear it.  You can smell it.  You can taste it.

    Presently, government planners and schemers are queuing up their tired plans to roll out at the moment of maximum panic.  The CARES Act is merely the beginning.  Economic patriotism, universal basic income, modern monetary theory, trade wars, outright currency destruction, and greater government control and encroachments upon freedom and liberty.

    The plans, however, ain’t gonna fix what’s coming.  What’s more, these programs of central planners, while pandering to extreme populism, will only further exacerbate it.

    Thus, in the American traditions of freedom, liberty, and independence, do as Rocco did.  Create something new and according to your own rules. 

    A centralized statist government may ultimately confiscate every last dollar you earn. 

    But, with a little luck, you’ll be contributing to a “gale of creative destruction” that blows through the status quo like a Midwestern tornado.

    Wishful thinking?  Perhaps.

    Though, on Independence Day in America, circa 2020, it’s something worth striving for.

  • "A Storm Waiting To Happen": The Average American's Power Bill Is About To Rise As Much As 30%
    "A Storm Waiting To Happen": The Average American's Power Bill Is About To Rise As Much As 30%

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 07/03/2020 – 21:25

    Today in “The Fed can’t find inflation anywhere” news, it looks as though the average American’s 2020 is going to go from bad to worse. Bloomberg is reporting that with rising temperatures during what is expected to be a blistering summer, most consumers are about to face “sharp increases” in electric bills that could “drive some to the brink of financial ruin”. 

    That’s a serious claim to make about a power bill, but the facts are there to back it up. People that are stuck at home instead of at the office this summer are going to depend on air conditioners far more than they used to. This will drive up power bills by “25% in parts of the U.S.,” according to the report. This comes at a time where about 50 million people are experiencing financial hardships.

    Working from home has already increased residential demand for electricity by 15% during work hours, according to Innowatts, a utility consultant. Con Ed has warned customers bills could go up 10% this summer and in California, the average bill may rise by 25% to over $200, the state’s Public Utilities Commission has warned. 

    In parts of the U.S. south, prices could rise as much as 30%, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists. 

    The increases could amount to as much as $50 per month, the report says, and will disproportionately affect many who are already struggling through the pandemic.  

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    Sindy Benavides, chief executive officer of the League of United Latin American Citizens said: “There will be people faced with figuring out whether to pay their bill or put food on the table. It’s a storm waiting to happen.”

    Lower income families spend about 9% of their budget on energy bills, according to the report. The problem disproportionately affects Black and Hispanic families who are twice as likely to live in poverty, according to the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy and the U.S. Census Bureau.

    Jacqui Patterson, director of the NAACP’s environmental and climate justice program, said: “People will start to make very tough choices. It’s another situation where people are paying the price of poverty with their lives.”

    A long hot summer is being predicted for most of the U.S. this year and places like California have already dealt with two serious heat waves. New York, Boston and Philadelphia have already reached or exceeded 90 degrees this year. 

    Jim Rouiller, lead forecaster at the Energy Weather Group, said: “We have made the turn into what is going to become a long summer of heat.”

    Jeremiah Bohr, an assistant professor of sociology at the University of Wisconsin, Oshkosh concluded: “It highlights the larger issue of how difficult it is to make ends meet.”

  • Goldman Sees Ghost Of Dot Com Bubble As Baby Boomers Sell Stocks To Their Own Kids
    Goldman Sees Ghost Of Dot Com Bubble As Baby Boomers Sell Stocks To Their Own Kids

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 07/03/2020 – 20:57

    Back in 2019 we posted on several occasions that a “conundrum” had emerged in the stock market: with equities hitting new all time highs, especially in the last quarter after the Fed relaunched QE to bailout a bunch of basis trading hedge funds under the pretext of saving the repo market, equity outflows soared to all time highs…

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    … as investors fled risk assets realizing that the market was unsustainable high and artificially propped up by the Fed (as a reminder 2019 saw zero earnings growth and all the equity upside was thanks to multiple expansion).

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    Fast forward to early May when the “conundrum” made a triumphal return, because as BofA reported even as stocks were soaring, investors once again fled into cash, allocating tens of billions to money markets…

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    … and while investors also rushed to allocate fund to “risk free” bonds, now that the Fed is buying corporate bond ETFs and also debt from such “middle class” stalwarts as Apple and Berkshire, they were once again aggressively selling stock fund ETFs.

    In the ensuing two months, the conundrum has persisted even if there was one small change: the funds flowing into money markets have reversed, and according to the latest EPFR fund flows data, the last week of June saw $28.8bn pulled out out of cash, which according to BofA’s Michael Hartnett was the largest MMF redemption since Dec 19. That said, even with the latest outflow from money market funds, more than $1.1 trillion in cash has gone into money markets.

    Yet what continues to confound professional investors who continue to recommend stocks based on “fundamentals” when the only thing that matters any more is how many trillions the Fed will injects into stocks, is that funds continue to flow into bonds ($15.3bn last week), new money continues to be allocated to gold (42BN in the last week), yet equity funds continue to see relentless outflows, with another $7.1bn pulled out of stocks last week even as stocks appears to be on a relentless upswing.

    In fact, a look at fund flows among various asset classes, shows that stocks are the only class that has suffered pretty much constant outflows, while new capital has been allocated to gold, bonds (both IG and HY), and most of all cash.

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    But wait, it’s not just the 2019 conundrum that is at play here. Yes, it is true that last year investors were just as aggressively selling equity funds (while the strong buyback bid helped levitate most assets), a situation that has re-emerged in recent weeks, but in 2019 we didn’t have the Robin Hood effects, where millions of Gen-Zers and millennials were willingly “investing” their stimulus checks in ultra-high beta stocks and anything that had plunged, even if it was bankrupt companies. 

    So how is the current situation different? The answer comes courtesy of Goldman’s head of hedge fund sales, Tony Pasquariello, who writes that while in total retail investors are dumping stocks, that is not true for all retail investors, where a very clear generational divide has emerged.

    Here are his latest observations:

    The bifurcation continues within the retail community: an older generation continues to make sales via mutual funds and ETFs (link); a younger generation continue to trade stocks like it’s 1999 (“free trades, jackpot dreams lure small investors to options”).

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    At some point, the $64,000 question is… Where are we in the retail cycle?  Having lived through the late 90’s, I tend to think the recent euphoria can persist a bit longer.

    In other words, even Goldman now sees the ghost of the dot com bubble re-emerge, as older Americans scramble to liquidate stock by selling to their very own children.

    As for Goldman’s assessment that the euphoria can persist a “bit” longer, we take the over – with Powell now having gone all in, staking not only the Fed’s reputation and the entire capitalist way of life, including the dollar as a global reserve currency on pushing stocks even higher, this may be the one time when retail investors not only outperform hedge funds – and the S&P500 – as they have been for much of 2020…

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    … but also the baby boomers who can’t sell stock fast enough to their own children.

    Or then again, maybe this time won’t be different.

  • "You Are On Stolen land" – Protests Intensify At Mount Rushmore Ahead Of Trump's Arrival
    "You Are On Stolen land" – Protests Intensify At Mount Rushmore Ahead Of Trump's Arrival

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 07/03/2020 – 20:20

    Update(20:45ET): President Trump is due any moment to land at Ellsworth AFB. 

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    Ellsworth AFB is about a 34-mile car drive from Mount Rushmore – Marine One will fly the president to the national monument in the Black Hills region of South Dakota.

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    Update(20:21ET): Twitter handle Unicorn Riot, you may recall the account live-streamed the early days of the Minneapolis social unrest, is on the scene as demonstrators have erected a vehicle blockade preventing people from attending the firework display at Mount Rushmore this evening, which will host President Trump. 

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    “A more intensive vehicle blockade has also gone up, blocking the road to Trump’s event in South Dakota. Indigenous people gathered here are invoking their unceded rights to the land – police preparing to make arrests,” Unicorn Riot tweeted.

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    h/t Unicorn Riot 

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    h/t Unicorn Riot 

    Demonstrators are seen blocking the street with white vans, and at least one vehicle has the back driver side tire removed. One protester sign reads: “You Are On Stolen land.” 

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    h/t Unicorn Riot 

    Unicon Riot notes, “Many Trump supporters are waiting to get through the roadblock.” 

    Moments ago, police declared the protests an “unlawful assembly.” 

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    More images of the blockade

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    h/t Unicorn Riot 

    “25+ Nat’ l Guard soldiers met the blockade line with riot shields & helmets. Demonstrators trying to prevent Guard from pushing through. One shield was taken from Guard,” Unicorn Riot tweeted.

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    “A second arrest warning has been given. Police claim that demonstrators will be allowed to return to their original protest location. National guard soldiers are approaching the blockade,” Unicorn Riot said. 

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    Soldiers fired pepper balls at demonstrators’ feet to push them off the highway. 

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    Rapid City Journal reports Trump supporters are “unable to get through the protests.” This has led to “many empty seats” at the Mount Rushmore complex – where the president is expected to attend a firework show. 

    “The lower level of the amphitheater is filled but there are many empty seats in the upper level. Many of the ticket holders are not wearing masks, but they are wearing Trump and MAGA hats and shirts with political messages,” Rapid City Journal said. 

    Rapid City Journal said the president will be arriving at Mount Rushmore around 6:45 PM via Marine One. 

    *  *  * 

    With the leftist cancel mob now looking to erase Mount Rushmore, President Trump is heading to the South Dakota landmark to kick off his 4th of July weekend.

    The president will enjoy a fireworks display with some 7,500 people – who won’t be required to wear masks or socially distance. The monument, featuring the faces of  Presidents George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Abraham Lincoln and Theodore Roosevelt, hasn’t had fireworks since 2009 due to environmental concerns, according to Reuters.

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    In addition to fireworks, the event will feature Lakota storytellers, a military flyover, hoop dancers, and of course – President Trump will entertain the crowd.

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    Governor Kristi Noem (R) told Fox News on Monday night that attendees at Trump’s Friday night event at the monument said that people who have health concerns over COVID-19 can “stay home,” but that face masks will be distributed so people can “choose to wear one.”

    “We’re asking them to come, be ready to celebrate, to enjoy the freedoms and the liberties that we have in this country,” said Noem. “But we won’t be social distancing.“

    And of course, wherever Trump goes, triggerings follow.

    Native Americans, who reportedly plan to protest during the trip, have criticized Trump’s visit for increasing the risk of spreading the virus and for celebrating U.S. independence in an area that is sacred to them.

    The Democratic National Committee (DNC) tweeted at one point that Trump had disrespected Native Americans and that the event was “glorifying white supremacy.” It later deleted the tweet.

    Both Washington and Jefferson, revered for their roles in the founding of the nation, were slave owners. –Reuters

    “It’s an injustice to actively steal Indigenous people’s land then carve the white faces of the conquerors who committed genocide,” says Oglala Lakota Noation activist Nick Tilsen.

    Cheyanne River Sioux Tribe chairman Harold Frazier has called for the removal of Mount Rushmore, saying in a statement “Nothing stands as a greater reminder to the Great Sioux Nation of a country that cannot keep a promise of treaty then the faces carved into our sacred land on what the United States calls Mount Rushmore.”

    “The United States of America wishes for all of us to be citizens and a family of their republic yet when they get bored of looking at those faces we are left looking at our molesters,” he added in the June 29 comments.

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    That said, as Fox News‘ Rebecca Grant pointed out on Friday in an Op-Ed (which quoted Tilsen), nobody seemed to have a problem with the ‘racist’ monument ‘built on indigenous land’ when former President Obama and Hillary Clinton visited during their 2008 campaigns.

    Candidate Obama and a bus of campaign reporters visited Mount Rushmore late on a Friday evening in May 2008. The New York Times covered it as an adorable moment with Obama’s “tie not a half-inch ajar” and Obama joking with park rangers that his ears were too big to carve on the mountain.

    Candidate Hillary Clinton had already been there. On her photo op a few days earlier, a reporter asked her if she could envision herself carved on the mountain. According to CBS, this prompted a visibly annoyed Clinton to say: “Why don’t you learn something about the monument?” Good point.

    But a dozen years on, it may be too late for history. –Fox News

    Meanwhile, Grant points out that while the left seems to be intent on erasing America’s past, they’ve conveniently overlooked that “every square inch of the United States, plus the rest of North America and Latin America, once “had been Indigenous land.”” – and that “Even the headquarters of oh-so politically correct New York Times sits on land in Manhattan that once belonged to indigenous people before it was purchased for almost nothing by the Dutch and later taken by the British.”

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    Moreover, three of the four presidents on Mount Rushmore – Washington, Jefferson and Lincoln, were all deceased when the US took control of the Black Hills in 1877, while Roosevelt was just 19 years old.

    Trump will hold another 4th of July celebration on Saturday in Washington DC.

  • Meet Four New Virus-Fighting Technologies That Could Soon Become The Standard In Public Areas
    Meet Four New Virus-Fighting Technologies That Could Soon Become The Standard In Public Areas

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 07/03/2020 – 20:15

    As the push for some to head back to the office continues, despite being the midst of the ongoing pandemic, a focus has shifted to what kinds of technologies are going to be used in order to make sure that public areas, like office environments and airports, are virus-free.

    Aside from the usual hand sanitizers and face masks, FT published a report this week highlighting some of the other technologies that businesses are choosing to employ in order to surfaces and spaces clean. 

    Shaun Fitzgerald, visiting professor at the University of Cambridge, said: “Pandemics like this can provide fertile ground for creative minds to think about how to do things differently.”

    One option that’s being looked at is self-cleaning surfaces. While the virus can stay alive for up to 72 hours on plastics and steel, silver and copper have a track record of killing viruses and bacteria within four hours. Felicity de Cogan, research fellow at the University of Birmingham and founder of NitroPep, said that timeframe needs to get down to “seconds to minutes” and it needs to be “built into the material”.

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    Her company is working on developing layers of materials with spike particles on them that puncture and kill viruses within minutes. Her company’s antimicrobial agents can be added to already existing desks, walls and other surfaces and rupture “anything with a membrane”. 

    “It doesn’t require a change in behaviour, it just sits there and kills whatever lands on it,” de Cogan said. In a pilot run of the technology for a Royal Navy ship, it killed more than 95% of bacteria like E. Coli and MRSA. de Cogan aims to implement it in public transport and for self-cleaning equipment, if it proven to be able to kill coronavirus. 

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    Another option is UV irradiation. The idea of “germicidal ultraviolet” has been known for years but is now getting another look. UV beams are used to kill micro-organisms by targeting the RNA in viruses and DNA in bacteria and fungi. UV lamps have been found in the past to be effective in stopping drug-resistant tuberculosis in large rooms.

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    The technology is good for large rooms and crowded and poorly ventilated environments. Covid has accelerated demand for UV charging robots that emit UV light that leaves bacteria and viruses too damaged to function. They robots cost about 60,000 Euro each and can be found in places like hospitals and hotels. 

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    A third technology being used is environmental monitors that “check the pulse” of a building that already exists to assess things like CO2 levels. In Switzerland, researchers are trying to develop sensors that detect the virus itself. The Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH Zurich) and Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology (Empa) have together developed a sensor inside of a chamber that emits light if it finds the viruses RNA. Real-world testing is set to start soon. 

    Finally, ventilation is in focus. HVAC systems play a huge role in the accumulation of aerosol droplets and improving the amount of fresh air a person gets per second can help slow the viruses movement. This can be especially true in confined spaces like elevators and airplanes. 

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    Gardner Allen, assistant professor at the Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health said: “You always want the air to move from clean to dirty and then out. In the bathroom, you want it to move from indoor, to bathroom and then out through the exhaust.” 

    One thing is for certain: the world is changing and evolving to try and deal with the pandemic threat in ways that 6 months ago, we would have never thought possible. Surely this will lead to a whole host of new Silicon Valley startups that will focus not only on combating the virus, but also likely on burning cash at ungodly WeWork-style levels.

    Keep your eyes out for those “exciting” IPO opportunities to probably start hitting the market around late 2021. 

  • Mexican State Closes Border With Arizona As COVID-19 Outbreak Worsens: Live Updates
    Mexican State Closes Border With Arizona As COVID-19 Outbreak Worsens: Live Updates

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 07/03/2020 – 20:09

    Summary:

    • Mexican state closes border with US
    • Texas reports another 7,555 new cases, 3rd highest yet
    • Global total nears 11 million
    • South Carolina positivity rate hits 20.7%
    • Latam surpasses US case total
    • More MLB, NBA players test positive
    • California reports latest case numbers
    • Court orders 3 defiant Arizona gyms to close
    • South Africa suffers record jump in new cases; positivity rate ~25%
    • Dallas reports more than 1k cases
    • Arizona hospitalizations at new record high
    • 105 University of Washington students living in frat houses off campus test positive
    • NY reports 9 fatalities
    • Sweden sees deaths, hospitalizations tumble
    • WHO warns against trying to predict when vaccine will be ready
    • ES futures slide as Florida passes NJ with 178k COVID-19 cases
    • Gov Cuomo delivers a holiday weekend warning
    • Britain mandates quarantine for all American visitors
    • US reports another record case jump
    • Total cases (US): ~2,740,000
    • Washington State Gov pauses reopening
    • India reports new record daily jump
    • South Korea sees another 60+ cases
    • China cluster eases
    • Peru death toll tops 10k

    * * *

    Update (2000ET): At least one Mexican state has just closed its border with Arizona to cut off the expected flood of 4th of July travelers. The state is Sonora, according to the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.

    The state is in a difficult position because it’s struggling to contain its own outbreak while across the border, officials in Arizona are trying to do the same.

    As coronavirus cases surge across the US, one Mexican state is closing itself off from its northern neighbor out of concern for safety, outlets report.

    Officials in Sonora, Mexico moved quickly to slam the border shut before the start of the July Fourth weekend, traditionally a peak tourism time as Americans flock south to celebrate, the Arizona Daily Star reported.

    Officials have not announced a reopening date.

    Sonora is in a difficult position. It’s struggling to control the pandemic within its own borders, and just above is Arizona, one of the most afflicted states in the U.S..

    * * *

    Update (1700ET): Just as today’s earlier numbers from Dallas suggested, Texas reported 7,555 new confirmed cases on Friday, the state’s third-highest number yet. .

    The latest numbers haven’t been added to the state’s dashboard yet, which means the state’s true total is just shy of 191,000 confirmed cases, and 2,625 deaths.

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    Source: Texas HHS

    In sports news, the NBA’s Miami Heat have closed their practice facility at the American Airlines Arena in Miami after a second player tested positive.

    MLB pitcher Brett Martin of the Texas Rangers has tested positive, according to his team. A team rep says Martin is now in quarantine in Texas. Boston Red Sox manager Ron Roenicke admitted during a briefing on Friday that the team had a “few positive cases”.

    As more states roll back their reopenings, Akansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson has signed an executive order giving cities the ability to mandate face coverings, becoming the latest governor in the deep south to start softening his resistance to more strict measures.

    In a major milestone underlining the severity of the outbreak in Latin America, the region reached more than 2.7 million  cases and the number of deaths reached more than 121,000, according to a count by CNN.

    The rankings have shifted over the last couple of weeks as the outbreaks in Chile and Peru have spiraled out of control:

    1. Brazil: 1,496,858 cases; 61,884 deaths
    2. Peru: 292,004 cases; 10,045 deaths
    3. Chile: 288,089 cases; 6,051 deaths
    4. Mexico: 238,511 cases; 29,189 deaths
    5. Colombia: 106,110 cases; 3,641 deaths
    6. Argentina: 69,941 cases; 1,385 deaths
    7. Ecuador: 60,657 cases; 4,700 deaths
    8. Bolivia: 35,528 cases; 1,271 deaths
    9. Panama: 35,237 cases, 667 deaths
    10. Dominican Republic: 35,148 cases; 775 deaths

    The 10 worst-hit countries in the region alone have at least 2,658,083 coronavirus cases and at least 119,608 virus-related deaths. That suggests both numbers for the entire region are probably higher than the US’s total (and there are probably also many more undiagnosed cases and uncounted deaths).

    Brazil’s neighbors have also seen a notable pickup in cases. Since last Friday, Argentina has passed Ecuador, Bolivia  has passed Panama and the Dominican Republic, and Panama has surpassed the DR. In other news, Costa Rica on Friday extended restrictions in several provinces due to the sharp rise in cases. Chile’s health ministry reported 131 new deaths Friday, bringing the country’s death toll north of 6k to 6,051.

    Finally, in South Carolina reported 1,558 new cases and 10 new deaths Friday. According to the agency’s numbers, the positivity rate in the state is now 20.7%.

    There are currently 1,148 hospital beds occupied by patients who have either tested positive or are suspected of having the virus. The hospital bed utilization rate is just shy of 73%. South Carolina has a total of 41,413 confirmed cases, 119 probable cases, 787 confirmed deaths and six probable deaths, according to the statement.

    California’s cases continued to climb, with the state reporting  another 5,688 cases bringing its total to 248,235 confirmed cases.

    Another 100 deaths were reported, bringing the state’s total to 6,263. Roughly 43% of the state’s cases are in LA County. The statewide positivity rate stands at 6.4 % for the past 14-days. And hospitalization rates are back at record highs north of 5,500 patients.

    Globally, the coronavirus case total stood at 2,976,026 as of 7pmET, meaning we’ll likely pass 11 million later tonight.

    * * *

    Update (1534ET): While we still haven’t heard much, if anything, from CNN about today’s hydroxychloroquine news, the network reported on three defiant gyms in Arizona that are refusing to shut down again. A court has sent them an official order to cease and desist, If they continue to resist, the owners could face jail.

    Meanwhile, South Africa just suffered its worst day yet.

    Epidemiologists around the world have been looking toward Africa with increasing alarm over the outbreak, which is picking up steam after getting off to a slow start.

    * * *

    Update (1500ET): As we wait for the latest update out of Texas, Dallas officials just reported one of their highest single-day totals yet.

    To put that into context.

    Masks may have contributed to the northeast’s success, but just making masks mandatory simply isn’t enough to stop the outbreak from escalating, as LA County has shown us.

    President Trump is set to travel to South Dakota Friday to watch a fireworks display.

    Earlier, the FDA approved the first test that tests for COVID-19 and the seasonal flu, which should put Dr. Fauci’s mind at ease.

    As we noted earlier, a study has (Finally) shown that hydroxychloroquine can be effective in high-risk patients if taken early enough.

    Yet, even with the slow news day due to the holiday weekend, we’re not seeing much attention being paid to this development.

    Some college students who allegedly threw “COVID-19 parties” have terrified parents with their nonchalant attitude toward the virus. In the latest story along those lines, more than 100 University of Washington students have tested positive . The students all lived in frat houses near campus, per CBS.

    “It really is consistent with what we’ve been observing, which is incredible noncompliance with wearing face masks, social distancing, particularly among young adults and teenagers,” he said.

    Looks like the NYT and CNN are going to need to rethink their whole “Gen Z will save us” narrative.

    * * *

    Update (1205ET): Arizona hospitalizations hit another record high as the state reports another 4,400+ cases and ICU capacity hits dangerously crowded levels (though, as we learned from Houston, there’s overflow capacity that can still be brought on-line). Total hospitalizations rose by 75 to 3,013 over the last 24 hours.

    Arizona is reporting 4,433 new coronavirus cases, and 31 more deaths.

    The state says 91% of its ICU beds are filled with COVID-19 patients, only 196 licensed beds are left in the entire state.

    Maricopa county remains the hardest-hit county in the state. It’s also the most densely populated, being home to Phoenix, one of the biggest cities in the country.

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    The state’s last record high came earlier this week, on Wednesday.

    * * *

    Update (1115ET): NY Gov Andrew Cuomo has just released the latest batch of daily COVID-19 figures…and it looks like the state recorded just 9 deaths over the last 24 hrs.

    * * *

    Update (1100ET): Building on comments from the other day, the WHO’s Dr. Mike Ryan insisted that we can’t yet say reliably when a vaccine will be ready for mass production.

    Here’s more from Reuters:

    • WHO DIRECTOR-GENERAL TEDROS SAYS EXPECTS INTERIM RESULTS FROM SOLIDARITY TRIAL OF COVID-19 THERAPEUTICS WITHIN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS
    • WHO’S MIKE RYAN SAYS NO VACCINE IS FAR ENOUGH ADVANCED TO KNOW WHETHER THERE WILL BE SIGNAL OF EFFICACY
    • UNWISE TO PREDICT WHEN A VACCINE COULD BE ROLLED OUT, VACCINES MAY HAVE SHOWN EFFICACY BY END OF YEAR, QUESTION IS PRODUCTION CAPACITY – WHO’S RYA

    Meanwhile, while Sweden still has one of the higher mortality rates overall (5,000+ deaths for a population of 10.2 million), and while the country’s immensely popular method of tackling the virus with no lockdowns has seen its popularity fade as the death toll crossed 5k, the numbers show that Sweden might be one of the closest communities toward achieving herd immunity.

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    * * *

    Update (1030ET): It wasn’t the 10k+ jump from the other day, but Florida reported another 9,488 (+5.6%) cases on Friday, pushing its total case tally past New Jersey’s. The 7-day average is 5.8%.

    While we didn’t take out the last record, hospitalizations in the state continued to climb at an alarming rate.

    ES aren’t liking this (though fortunately the cash market will have the whole weekend to digest these numbers).

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    Florida is now No. 4 in the country behind only Texas (No. 3; 182k), California (No. 2; 248k) and New York (No. 1; 400k).

    * * *

    Update (1000ET): Before you kick back with a bucket-full of Bud’Merica’s and a wheelbarrow full of illegal fireworks, we implore you, dear reader, to read this special holiday weekend message from NY Gov Andrew Cuomo:

    Oh and one more thing: If you haven’t spoken to grandma lately, maybe find some time to give her a ring. You would probably make her day.

    * * *

    Update (0950ET): Joining the EU27, the UK has released an updated list of travel guidelines that will ease restrictions on visitors from dozens of countries, though not the US.

    The EU has urged all European states to bar travelers from the US, unless they complete a mandatory 2-week quarantine upon arriving. The notable difference is that the EU will block most Americans from even traveling to Europe, while the UK will permit arrivals, so long as they agree to quarantine under close monitoring.

    Nicola Sturgeon, the leader of Scotland’s devolved government, bashed the conservative government’s “shambolic” decision making process, but nonetheless said she would accept the updated guidelines. The devolved governments of Wales and Northern Ireland must also accept the guidelines, or set their own.

    Meanwhile, in China’s Hebei Province (not Hubei where Wuhan is) still has hundreds of thousands of families on mandatory lockdowns even as newly confirmed cases have once again trended toward zero.

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    Elsewhere, South Korea reported 63 newly confirmed cases of COVID-19 on Friday, another alarming uptick as health authorities scramble to mobilize public health resources in the city of Gwangju, the home of the latest outbreak where more than 50 people were found sickened over the past week.

    The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said the new total is 12,967 infections, and 282 deaths.

    India reported yet another single-day record jump in new virus cases on Friday, breaking 20k for the second day in a row: 20,903.

    The figure took the national total to 625,544. The Ministry of Health also reported an additional 379 deaths, taking the death toll to 18,213. At this rate, India should surpass Russia as the world’s third-worst-hit country in the coming days as Vladimir Putin, having just secured another decade-plus in power, is finally bringing things under control.

    In Latin America, Peru’s death toll rose to 10,045 on Thursday, the health ministry said, a day after the Latin American nation began easing a lockdown as its economy teeters on the brink of a serious crisis. The number of deaths rose by 185 in the last 24 hours, while the number of people infected rose to 292,004. Peru has the third-worst outbreak in Latin America, after Brazil and Mexico.

    * * *

    Coronavirus cases in the US hit another daily record on Thursday as Americans prepared for a distinctly joyless Fourth of July weekend that bears none of the sense of joy and revival that the country enjoyed on Memorial Day Weekend. According to JHU, the US reported 52,291 new cases, bringing its nationwide total to 2,739,879.

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    Source: JHU

    Last night, Washington State Gov. Jay Inslee announced that he would pause the phased reopening process for all counties in the state for 2 weeks, joining NY & NJ in delaying some of its reopening plans due to the outbreak int he south and west, while dozens of states – including Texas and Florida, arguably the two hardest hit states – have taken steps to roll back or delay their reopening. He also announced a statewide directive for businesses to require face coverings of all employees and customers, just a few hours after Texas Gov Greg Abbott issued an executive order mandating mask-wearing.

    Washington’s decision comes after the state reported 509 new cases yesterday, the highest single-day number since April 8.

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    While the resurgence of new cases in Washington State is definitely discouraging, heading into the weekend, only a handful of states in the northeast – NY, NJ, Connecticut, Mass., RI, Vermont, NH and Maine – haven’t seen the numbers backslide.

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    To put things in perspective….

  • Holiday Humor? Democrats Prepare To Celebrate Dependence Day
    Holiday Humor? Democrats Prepare To Celebrate Dependence Day

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 07/03/2020 – 19:40

    Via Babylon Bee,

    Democrats across the country prepared to celebrate Dependence Day this week, an annual holiday where they reflect upon their complete and total dependence on the government.

    Every year on July 4, Democrats celebrate the high holy day where they thank the government for its gracious gifts.

    “It’s good to pause every year and think about how we are completely and utterly dependent on the government for everything,” said Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi. 

    “We have to give up all our rights to the government to find out how dependent we can be.”

    “This good and benevolent government was given to us by, you know, the thing,” said Joe Biden.

    “We should take a moment and be thankful for that. You know, I was around on the first Dependence Day, when Paul Washington and George Revere rode their donkeys into the holy city of Washington. I watched them come into town. I even stuck a feather in Revere’s hat and called him ‘macaroni’. He didn’t really appreciate that, you know. But it was a good time.”

    The DNC’s official Twitter account tweeted, “Let’s take a moment to think about everything we owe the government this Dependence Day.”

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    While Americans celebrate Independence Day with fireworks, barbecues, and merrymaking, Democrats celebrate Dependence Day by staying inside and weeping over all the freedom going on outside. The celebrations conclude with the reading of the Communist Manifesto and the singing of “Imagine”.

  • Japanese City Kills "Smartphone Zombies", Bans Texting-While-Walking
    Japanese City Kills "Smartphone Zombies", Bans Texting-While-Walking

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 07/03/2020 – 19:05

    Yamato, a city in Japan, became the first municipality in the country to ban people from using smartphones while walking in public areas, reported RT News.

    The passage of the new ordinance is to prevent ‘smartphone zombies’ from endangering themselves and others as they walk down the street with their heads buried in a screen. 

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    The city’s assembly in Kanagawa Prefecture passed the new rule last week and will go into effect this Wednesday. Violaters will not be fined or imprisoned, but the purpose is to bring awareness that “smartphones should be used when not in motion.”

    The ordinance makes clear smartphone users should come to a complete stop while in public areas and not obstruct sidewalk traffic before checking emails or text messages. 

    Earlier this year, city officials launched a study in several high trafficked areas, observing roughly 6,000 people, and found 12% of people were actively using their smartphones while walking down the street. It concluded by saying smartphone users could trip or walk into traffic while using their device. 

    And maybe the Japanese are onto something – here’s a New Jersey woman texting while walking – falls into a basement.

    Here’s a compilation of people in the U.K. walking into things while texting. 

    Smartphone addiction has led to the proliferation of sidewalk zombies. 

    In the age of technology, whoever thought of walking down the street while texting could be so dangerous.

  • Daily Briefing – July 3, 2020
    Daily Briefing – July 3, 2020


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 07/03/2020 – 18:40

    In this special, Fourth of July edition of the Daily Briefing, senior editor Ash Bennington and managing editor Ed Harrison sit down to answer questions from our viewers concerning everything from crypto to markets and more. Filmed on July 1, 2020.

  • Syria Prepares For Military Confrontation With Turkey In Northeast
    Syria Prepares For Military Confrontation With Turkey In Northeast

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 07/03/2020 – 18:30

    Via Southfront.org,

    The Syrian Army and the National Defense Forces have put their forces on high alert in response to the new round of aggressive actions by the Turkish Army and its proxies in northeastern Syria.

    Several convoys of government forces, including several T-62M battle tanks and a number of trucks equipped with heavy machine guns, deployed to the countryside of Ayn Issa after intense Turkish artillery strikes on positions of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces and the army near al-Nuyhat in northern al-Hasakah and Hushanah in northern Raqqah. Another group of government troops deployed near the town of Tell Tamr.

    According to local sources, the recent Turkish strikes led to no casualties among civilians or military personnel. Nonetheless, regular Turkish attacks on these areas in fact turned a large part of the territory located relatively close to the Turkish-occupied area into a no man’s land. Syrian state media also reported that Turkey set up a new training camp for its proxies northwest of Tell Tamr.

    While the chances of an open full-scale military confrontation in northeastern Syria between Turkey and the Syrian Army remain low, the military stalemate with regular ceasefire violations clearly does not contribute to any kind of peace process.

    Meanwhile, the US troops, which the Trump administration had supposedly mostly withdrawn from Syria some time ago, have been expanding their military infrastructure there. Recently, they set up a new airfield approximately 8km south of the town of al-Ya’rubiyah in the province of al-Hasakah. Local sources report that US forces are actively deploying new equipment and materials there, building up barracks and erecting concrete barriers. Units of the Syrian Democratic Forces are also allegedly involved in securing the perimeter of the airfield.

    At least one soldier was killed and 3 others injured in an attack by gunmen on a checkpoint in the town of Talfita in the western part of the Qalamun region, near the border with Lebanon. Following the attack, the army and security forces deployed additional units to the area in order to find and neutralize the attackers. Hezbollah is reportedly also involved.

    Such attacks in Western Qalamun are an uncommon development due to the strict security measures employed. A previous notable incident of this kind happened in December 2019, when gunmen stormed an army checkpoint in the town of Rankos in Eastern Qalamun. Then, all the attackers were tracked and neutralized in a series of operations within a few weeks of the incident.

  • The Complete Guide To Best & Worst-Run Cities In America 
    The Complete Guide To Best & Worst-Run Cities In America 

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 07/03/2020 – 17:55

    Personal-finance website WalletHub analyzed the 150 most-populated U.S. cities to determine the best and worst-run municipalities. They assigned each metro area a “Quality of Services” score comprised of 38 metrics grouped into six service categories (including financial stability, education, health, safety, economy, infrastructure, and pollution) – which was compared against each’s per-capita budget.

    The study, titled 2020’s Best- & Worst-Run Cities in America, determined the effectiveness of local leadership in crisis and non-crisis periods. 

    City leaders have been fighting the COVID-19 pandemic for months, and now many are tasked with keeping the peace while respecting people’s rights to demonstrate as protests against police brutality surge across the nation. People in local positions of power will undoubtedly feel extra pressure to please the public this year, as the November election will determine whether many of them keep their seats.

    Even when the U.S. isn’t in a time of crisis, running a city is a tall order. The larger the city, the more complex it becomes to manage. In addition to representing the residents, local leaders must balance the public’s diverse interests with the city’s limited resources. That often means not everyone’s needs can or will be met. Leaders must carefully consider which services are most essential, which agencies’ budgets to cut or boost and whether and how much to raise taxes, among other decisions. -WalletHub

    “How do we measure the effectiveness of local leadership?” WalletHub said. “One way is by determining a city’s operating efficiency. In other words, we can learn how well city officials manage and spend public funds by comparing the quality of services residents receive against the city’s total budget.”

    The findings revealed Washington D.C. was the worst-run city, the second was San Francisco, and third Gulfport, Mississippi. 

    Bottom 10 cities nationally:

    1. Washington, DC
    2. San Francisco, CA
    3. Gulfport, MS
    4. Chattanooga, TN
    5. New York, NY
    6. Hartford, CT
    7. Oakland, CA
    8. Detroit, MI
    9. Chicago, IL
    10. Flint, MI

    The study determined the three best-run cities were in Idaho and Utah.

    Top 10 cities nationally:

    1. Nampa, ID
    2. Boise, ID
    3. Provo, UT
    4. Las Cruces, NM
    5. Durham, NC
    6. Lexington-Fayette, KY
    7. Missoula, MT
    8. Fort Wayne, IN
    9. Virginia Beach, VA
    10. Nashua, NH

    Notice some of the worst-run cities are concentrated on the coasts, or in Democratic states. 

    Other metrics comparing the best and worst-run cities: 

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    A well-run city requires officials who can efficiently manage resources and make above-average good decisions for the long-term survivability of keeping their tax base in place. It’s a difficult juggling act when it comes to running a city in 2020 – many metro areas are fraught with socio-economic collapse, resulting in an exodus of the wealthy tax base. 

  • The Economic "Bounce" Is In: What's Next?
    The Economic "Bounce" Is In: What's Next?

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 07/03/2020 – 17:20

    Submitted by Joe Carson, former chief economist at Alliance Bernstein

    Both the employment report and the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) survey of manufacturers for June show a strong “bounce” in jobs and new orders from very depressed levels. The financial markets view the data as another sign of the economy slowly returning to pre-pandemic levels. But the continued high levels of jobless claims and fast rebound in COVID cases to record highs raises doubts on the sustainability while also placing a “lower” ceiling on the scale on the bounce.

    In June, payroll employment rose 4.8 million, well above consensus estimates, following a gain of 2.7 million in May and a record loss of 20.7 million in April. The “bounce” in jobs was broad-based as 75% of private industries added people to their payrolls in June. That compares to a record low of 4% in April.

    Sixty percent of the job gains in June were centered in retail trade and leisure and hospitality industries, the two sectors of the economy that were badly hurt by government restrictions on travel and social and recreational gatherings.

    The civilian unemployment rate of 11.1% in June was off 2.2 percentage points from the level in May. The household employment survey showed 4.9 million people found employment in June. But questions over the accuracy of the household employment data, especially the reported unemployment rate, still linger.

    According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the number of households who responded to the survey in June came in at 65%, lower than the 67% in May, and 70% in April. A “normal” response rate is around 83%. BLS maintains that they were “still able to obtain estimates that met our standards for accuracy and reliability”. But the potential error in the data has to be larger when the sample size is dramatically less than normal.

    The ISM manufacturing survey in June posted a strong bounce of roughly 10 percentage points to 52.6, the highest monthly reading since April 2019. A record 25 percentage point jump to 56.4 in the new orders index was largely responsible for strong “bounce” in the ISM composite index.

    The ISM index is a diffusion index. One of the shortcomings of a diffusion index is that it does not distinguish between the scales of gains and declines. For example, in June 37% of the respondents reported higher new orders, 39% said orders were unchanged, and 23% reported lower orders. Given the depressed level of order bookings, it is surprising that more firms reported no improvement in orders versus those that reported gains.

    Taken together, June reports on jobs and manufacturing do show a bounce in economic activity, but from very depressed levels. Hours worked for production and non-supervisory workers contracted a record 45% annualized in Q2. That points to a record fall in GDP, wage and salary income, and operating profits, the latter of which is being overlooked or ignored by equity investors.

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    Also, the path forward is still filled with potholes and downside risks. The 1.5 million in new jobless claims in the latest week indicates the rebound in jobs is a bounce and nothing more. Also, the number of new COVID cases rising to a new record of 50,000 for a single day raises the odds of more layoffs as states force businesses to pause or reverse course in their reopening plans.

    The equity market is priced for a “pandemic-free” economy. But pandemics are not solved by equity market recoveries but instead by medical science ability to find a cure. As such, equity investors should not expect the “good” news in the June data to continue as long as the pandemic remains unresolved.

  • China Buys US Corn, Soybean; Trade Deal Commitments Far From Satisfied 
    China Buys US Corn, Soybean; Trade Deal Commitments Far From Satisfied 

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 07/03/2020 – 16:45

    Around the same time President Trump and National Economic Council director Larry Kudlow were pumping jobs, stocks, and the V-shaped recovery on national television on Thursday morning – Reuters quoted a U.S. Agriculture Department (USDA) report that said China booked its first U.S. sales of corn and soybean since it asked suppliers (nine days ago) to guarantee shipments were not contaminated with COVID-19. 

    Readers may recall, from day one of the trade deal being signed – we outlined how the number of proposed agricultural goods exported to China under the agreement was unrealistic. 

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    China’s purchases of US farm goods since the trade deal was signed in mid-January has been underwhelming. With today’s purchases, we’re surprised the president or Kudlow didn’t pump the numbers, rather Kudlow said: “We are very unhappy with China.” 

    Reuters, quoting the USDA report, said China’s “private exporters reported the sale of 202,000 tonnes of corn and 126,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery during the 2020/21 marketing year that begins on Sept. 1.” 

    For more color on China not upholding trade commitments under the deal – we turn to Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE). Their trade deal tracker (latest data from April), shows China’s purchases under the trade agreement has been significantly below agreed-upon levels.

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    Even before the trade deal was signed – we outlined in December, vessel tracking data didn’t support China was purchasing farm goods from the U.S. – instead, they abandoned North American markets for Latin American ones. 

    In June, we noted again; there was no way in hell that China was buying enough agricultural goods from the U.S. to satisfy commitments. Just look at the vessel tracking map below (from early June) – a massive traffic jam of ships carrying soybeans from Latin America to Asia was seen – and just a few vessels carrying beans in North America. 

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    What’s evident is that China has predictably fallen way short of its commitments of the trade deal as it now blames virus pandemic for reduced purchases.

    The Trump administration should come clean and just admit the trade deal is a dud.

  • Video Game Developer 'Ends Racism' By Erasing "OK" Hand Gesture From Call Of Duty
    Video Game Developer 'Ends Racism' By Erasing "OK" Hand Gesture From Call Of Duty

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 07/03/2020 – 16:15

    Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

    Video game developer Infinity Ward has officially ended racism by removing the “OK” hand gesture emote from Call of Duty: Modern Warfare.

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    Stunning and brave.

    “After plastering “BLACK LIVES MATTER” in capitalized bold text across every loading screen and delaying the launch of Season 4 for a week seemingly failed to end racism on a global scale, it appears that Infinity Ward have removed the OK emote from the game,” reports National File.

    The company didn’t publicly acknowledge the change, but numerous Twitter users noticed the deadly hand sign’s absence from the game.

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    Someone also created a Reddit thread to discuss the issue, but in the spirit of one of if not the most censored social networks in existence, it was swiftly locked by moderators.

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    The notion that the ‘OK’ hand gesture is some kind of racist dog whistle originated as a stunt by 4chan trolls to fool the media into hysterically amplifying a hoax, which it dutifully has done for the past three years.

    Although the ADL initially refused to take the bait, they later reversed their position and included the gesture in their “hate symbols” database.

    “Some white supremacists themselves soon also participated in such trolling tactics, lending an actual credence to those who labeled the trolling gesture as racist in nature,” states the organization on its website. “By 2019, at least some white supremacists seem to have abandoned the ironic or satiric intent behind the original trolling campaign and used the symbol as a sincere expression of white supremacy.”

    As we highlight in the video below, other companies that helped end racism include Lego for pulling marketing of toy police stations and Uncle Bens for erasing the character of an African-American man from their products.

    *  *  *

    My voice is being silenced by free speech-hating Silicon Valley behemoths who want me disappeared forever. It is CRUCIAL that you support me. Please sign up for the free newsletter here. Donate to me on SubscribeStar here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown.

  • Hong Kong Man Charged With 'Terrorism' In First Ever Security Law Case After Ramming Police
    Hong Kong Man Charged With 'Terrorism' In First Ever Security Law Case After Ramming Police

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 07/03/2020 – 15:50

    Yesterday we noted that one of the Hong Kong pro-independence movement’s most visible young activists, Nathan Law, fled Hong Kong for an undisclosed outside country on fears of how the new national security law could be applied retroactively, especially given his and his close associate Joshua Wong’s public relationship with and backing by the US embassy and American Congressional leaders.

    There is also the looming question of just what the law will look like applied in action. Recall that the law which went into effect Wednesday harshly cracks down on dissent and fomenting unrest with possible maximum life jail sentences for some crimes, largely dependent on the ambiguous and highly open to interpretation (with no independent review) question of what ultimately constitutes ‘foreign interference’ or sponsorship of a ‘terror’ organization. 

    It was perhaps wise that Nathan Law didn’t stick around to find out how stringently it will be applied given that on Friday HK authorities made their first example, arresting a man for carrying an anti-Beijing sign after he was alleged to have intentionally rammed police with his motorcycle.

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    Protest slogans such as the popular “Liberate Hong Kong. Revolution of our times” are now banned by the National Security Law in Hong Kong. Getty Images

    Reuters reports of the first ever instance of a protester being charged with terrorism under the fresh law:

    A man carrying a “Liberate Hong Kong” sign as he drove a motorcycle into police at a protest against the territory’s Chinese rulers became on Friday the first person charged with inciting separatism and terrorism under a new security law.

    It appears precisely this sign and slogan, which reports say is ubiquitous around Hong Kong streets, buildings and walls, which gave police the excuse and ability to bring harsher charges against the man, described as in his 20s, under the new security law.

    The motorcycle ramming can now be effectively considered a political act of “terrorism” based on the security law.

    Reuters continues:

    Police say 23-year-old Tong Ying-kit rammed and injured some officers at an illegal protest on Wednesday. A video online showed a motorbike knocking over several officers on a narrow street before the driver falls over and is arrested.

    Tong, who was hospitalised after the incident, was charged less than 24 hours after the city government said the slogan he was carrying – “Liberate Hong Kong, revolution of our times” – connotes separatism or subversion under the new law.

    Ironically he was reported to be protesting the very law that he’s now being charged under.

    Here’s video of the motorcycle “attack” incident:

    Given even political slogans and signage now carry the possibility of arrest, or at least severely heightened charges in connection with other crimes, it’s more than likely we’ll see other big activist names flee Hong Kong and the region in the coming days and weeks. Clearly pro-independence leaders are bracing for the worst. 

    Reports say that Joshua Wong’s Demosisto, a pro-democracy group with deep ties to the US, UK, and other European countries, has already been disbanded – at least on a public level – over fears its members could face terrorism and subversion charges.

  • Supertanker Rates Collapse: "The Dam Has Burst"
    Supertanker Rates Collapse: "The Dam Has Burst"

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 07/03/2020 – 15:25

    By Greg Miller of FreightWaves,

    Some sayings pop up again and again in shipping circles:

    “The way to make a small fortune in shipping is to start with a big one.”

    “Moving cargo is what you do between buying and selling ships.”

    “If analysts say the market can only get worse, buy.”

    There’s also one that goes:

    “If there are 98 ships and 101 cargoes, boom, 98 cargoes and 101 tankers, bust.”

    Alas, there are now a lot more tankers than cargoes.

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    Rates are sliding, owners are capitulating, and charterers have the upper hand.

    Rates for very large crude carriers (VLCCs; tankers that carry 2 million barrels of crude) from the Middle East Gulf (MEG) to Asia were down to $20,000 per day on Wednesday, with the global average assessed at $26,537 per day by brokerage Howe Robinson.

    “The dam has burst, and VLCC rates have taken an overdue nosedive,”

    said the brokerage Fearnleys in a new report.

    “Daily earnings are still in the $20,000s [per day], but with increased bunker prices and further downward potential, OPEX [operating expense] levels could come under threat moving forward,” Fearnleys warned. “By all accounts it’s going to be a hot, long summer of discontent.”

    Current rates are less than a tenth of the record $250,000-per-day-plus peak in March and below rates of $28,000 per day at this time last year.

    Meanwhile, rates for Suezmaxes (tankers that carry 1 million barrels) are down to just $9,700 per day, while Aframaxes (750,000 barrels) are down to $8,200 per day, according to Clarksons Platou Securities. These rates are at or near multiyear lows and the outlook for all tanker classes remains negative.

    Owners spar for limited cargoes

    “High competition among [VLCC] owners in the Middle East Gulf is putting further downward pressure on rates, with our brokers expecting sentiment to weaken further into the week with smaller segments sharing the outlook,” said Clarksons Platou Securities analyst Frode Mørkedal.

    “Brokers said it is clear that charterers are in the driver’s seat now with each cargo receiving a double-digit [number of] offers from shipowners. With so many owners bidding on the same cargoes, it only takes one owner to start panicking and bring rates lower,” Mørkedal said.

    Argus Media reported on Wednesday that only one cargo was up for bid on the MEG-Korea route that day — with eight vessels competing for it. Argus quoted a market participant as stating that downward rate pressure “will likely increase in the short term.”

    Tanker rates are falling because of seasonal weakness, OPEC+ production cuts and the beginning of the unwind of floating storage. The unloading of floating-storage cargoes both decreases demand for new transport deals and increases the capacity of ships vying for the fewer remaining transport deals.

    Floating storage headwinds ahead

    Evercore ISI analyst Jon Chappell told FreightWaves, “I do think a lot of the recent precipitous decline in VLCC spot rates is associated with owner capitulation, but let’s be clear on how we got here.

    “VLCCs have held in much better than the midsize tanker sectors, primarily on hope of Venezuela-related sanctions and partially owing to congestion in China ports. It now appears that Venezuela will not be the next COSCO [referring to U.S. sanctions against Chinese owner COSCO in 2019, which restricted capacity] and eventually China port congestion will ease.

    “At the same time, the OPEC cuts are biting deeply,” said Chappell. “You can see it in the monthly cargoes out of the Arabian Gulf. And U.S. exports have declined as U.S. production slows and the arb [arbitrage window] is not open.

    “The floating-storage unwind has really yet to fully occur and should provide an overhang in the coming months and quarters,” cautioned Chappell.

    “The duration of the headwinds from the floating-storage unwind will almost completely depend on the pace of demand recovery. The faster the recovery, the more painful the immediate unwind, and the quicker the return to market balance. The more prolonged the demand recovery, the less painful the depths of the rate decline but it will be longer in duration. It’s too early to call if inventories will be normalized by the normal winter peak season,” said Chappell.

    Hopes pinned on fourth quarter

    Randy Giveans, analyst at Jefferies, was more optimistic. “As for low VLCC rates, it’s purely a matter of too many vessels and not enough cargoes,” he told FreightWaves. “Clearly the market is very tight, as evidenced by the surge in rates when there are extra cargoes and the rapid fall in rates when there is a lack of cargoes.

    “After basically six to eight months of strong rates, owners are more willing to accept weaker rates. Their balance sheets and liquidity have improved significantly in recent quarters so a few bad weeks and months won’t be very impactful.

    “Regarding duration, we expect rates to remain relatively flat — but still above $20,000 per day — in July and August before a strong move in the fourth quarter. And yes, I certainly expect rates above $50,000 per day at some point in that quarter. In 18 of the past 20 years, rates bottomed in the summer and rebounded in the fourth quarter,” said Giveans.

    Bet of Frontline boss

    The deteriorating tanker market brings to mind a wager Robert Macleod, CEO of Frontline (NYSE: FRO), made earlier this year.

    At the height of the rate frenzy, Macleod bet an analyst that VLCC rates would not revert to the $20,000- to $30,000-per-day levels seen in February at any point during the second or third quarters. Macleod vowed that if he lost the bet, he would walk the entire 300 miles between Oslo and Bergen, Norway.

    Macleod needs to start walking.

  • Tucker 2024? Growing Chorus Of Republicans Want Fox Host To Run For President
    Tucker 2024? Growing Chorus Of Republicans Want Fox Host To Run For President

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 07/03/2020 – 15:00

    Republicans looking to carry President Trump’s ‘America First’ momentum into the post-Trump era are excitedly eyeing Fox News host Tucker Carlson for a 2024 run.

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    According to Politico, “Republican strategists, conservative commentators, and former Trump campaign and administration officials are buzzing about Carlson as the next-generation leader of Donald Trump’s movement — with many believing he would be an immediate frontrunner in a Republican primary.”

    Sixteen prominent Republicans interviewed by POLITICO said there’s an emerging consensus in the GOP that the 51-year-old Carlson would be formidable if he were to run. Some strategists aligned with other potential candidates are convinced he will enter the race and detect the outlines of a stump speech in Carlson’s recent Fox monologues. Others, particularly those who know him well, are skeptical that he would leave his prime-time TV gig.

    “Let me put it this way: If Biden wins and Tucker decided to run, he’d be the nominee,” said former Trump aide Sam Nunberg – though Nunberg also doesn’t think Carlson will run because he’s “so disgusted with politicians.”

    Carlson commands the largest audience of any cable news host in history according to ratings released this week – while Carlson clips on Fox News‘ YouTube channel have racked up more than 60 million views, according to the report.

    To put it simply, Tucker tells the truth and will call out bullshit on both sides of the aisle. He also frequently treads headfirst into subject matter like few, if any, of his media peers.

    On Monday, Carlson took Republican Senator Mike Braun to task, calling him out over Braun’s reform of the Qualified Immunity Act – which would expose police officers to greater liability in civil lawsuits.

    When Braun tried to argue that he needed to appease Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), Carlson shot back: “Who controls the Senate? I thought Republicans controlled the Senate. So you’re taking your cues from Chuck Schumer [and] saying, ‘He might criticize me, therefore I have to pass a law that makes it easier to sue police’?“

    Braun stammered his way through the rest of the interview as Carlson continued to land verbal jabs:

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    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jshttps://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsCan Tucker convert his massive following into votes? 

    “There is at the very least a significant faction within the Republican Party that [Carlson] has a huge stake in and arguably leadership over,” said Rich Lowry, editor of the National Review and Politico columnist.

    “If he has political ambitions, he has an opening. He has a following and a taste for controversy. He’s smart, quick on his feet and personable. Political experience matters less than it once did.”

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