- Even The Machines Can't Comprehend Brexit: 'Blizzard' Of Headlines Renders Pound Untradeable For Algos
Since June 23, 2016, trading the British pound has been fraught with peril for both carbon-based and mechanical counterparts. Though it outperformed most other G10 currencies during Q1 (even as the risk of a disorganized ‘no deal’ Brexit appears to have risen), the currency has shed 13% from its pre-Brexit highs, and traders have had to contend with extreme bouts of intraday volatility, not to mention the occasional flash crash.
But as the Brexit drama has intensified over the past few weeks, with critical votes being held almost every day followed by an endless stream of commentary, speculation and conflicting reports, parsing all of this data has rendered the pound practically untradeable for algos designed to read and react to newswire headlines.
According to Reuters, “as a divided government battles a divided parliament over a way forward, the chorus of characters who can now influence events has grown, flummoxing news-reading algorithms…which are designed to parse phrases from recognized speakers before executing a trade.”
This “blizzard” of Brexit-related headlines has been one of the biggest challenges for algorithmic traders in their short existance. Reuters has pumped out as many as 400 Brexit-related headlines a day in recent weeks, up from just 15 on average before Brexit, while Bloomberg has published as many as 1,000 on particularly busy days, like on March 12, when MPs rejected Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement for the second time.
After Prime Minister Theresa May decided to pursue talks with the opposition, we saw a surge in conflicting Brexit headlines, presumably because the fractious interest groups within the government and the opposition have engaged in a chaotic battle royal to try and wrest control of the narrative. Just look at the news flow since the beginning of the week: news wires have reported that the PM will pursue talks with the opposition, that she might endorse a vote on Brexit-deal alternatives, that she might call for a general election, request a long Brexit delay, request a short Brexit delay, possibly consider another referendum etc. etc. And that’s not even factoring in the reports from Brussels.
While machine learning has made serious strides over the past ten years, trading algos still don’t have the capacity to understand the mechanics of obscure British parliamentary procedures like how Speaker John Bercow was able to declare that May couldn’t bring her withdrawal agreement back for a third vote unless strict conditions had been met.
Courtesy of Reuters
Machines also don’t possess the ability to process visual cues.
On November 6, Britain’s then Brexit Minister Dominic Raab, pushed the pound up simply by giving a “thumbs up” after a cabinet meeting – a visual cue that would outfox machines programmed to analyze words.
Raab’s market-moving gesture came after the pound had fallen on a tweet warning of a no-deal Brexit from Jeffrey Donaldson, one of 10 Democratic Unionist Party lawmakers whose support May needs.
The fact that traditional market drivers like economic data and central bank forecasts have been lost amid this storm of political speculation has compounded the frustration for some quant-driven macro hedge funds (though American equity bears can probably sympathize with this). Some have stopped trading sterling altogether.
Some hedge funds have opted out of trading sterling altogether because the usual models they rely on don’t work in the current climate, according to one FX trader at a major UK investment bank.
Their models are based around economic data and expectations for Bank of England rate changes, but those have become secondary drivers compared with political news, he said.
But the buy side aren’t the only ones struggling thanks to Brexit. Since roughly 70% of trades on some of the most popular FX trading platforms are executed by algorithms, market makers are widening the spread they’re demanding for facilitating trades to compensate for any losses due to volatile trading aggravated by poor liquidity conditions.
That is driving up costs for everybody who trades sterling, either for speculative for commercial purposes
But a wider spread makes it more expensive to deal in pounds. Rob Turner, a quantitative trader at RBC Capital Markets said the average cost of trading, by taking into account the spreads, for sterling in a usual 10 million ticket jumped last week to 2.9 pips from 1.9 pips in October.
“That shows that the price at the very best moment for executing a sterling trade last week was still a lot worse than the worst moment in a normal week,” Turner said.
Meanwhile, most currency dealers that take risk on to their own books are now reluctant to leave the machines unsupervised.
Some banks are ensuring that trading the pound is not left completely to the machines while other banks are using tiny orders within narrow trading ranges to prevent large losses.
“If it was your job and given the complexity of the Brexit story, do you really want to precode something to automatically infer and put material risk on the back of that,” said David Leigh, global head of FX spot and electronic trading at Deutsche Bank.
“Probably not.”The result has made sterling an outlier. As volatility in G10 FX – and stocks, and bonds – has plunged, for sterling, volatility has surged to its highest level in two years.
And if May and Europe decide to kick the can once again, this pattern will probably persist for the foreseeable future. If this happens, a lot of people will be unhappy, but we could think of two organizations that just might benefit.
One would almost think that Brexit is a giant ploy to boost FX trading revenues for Reuters and Bloomberghttps://t.co/MbA7ouUTPS
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 4, 2019
- Paul Craig Roberts: Where Is The World Headed?
Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,
Since 2016 the United States has been in the Russiagate box, a hoax created by the US military/security complex to prevent President Trump from normalizing relations with Russia. Normalized relations would devalue THE RUSSIAN THREAT, an orchestration that protects the $1,000 billion annual budget of the military/security complex.
The Democratic Party, which most certainly is not democratic, supported the hoax hoping to do Trump in for their own reasons and pulled the presstitute media into the conspiracy against Trump.
Now that all the assurances from the Establishment that Trump was a traitor to America who conspired with Russian President Putin to steal the election from the killer-bitch in order that America could serve Russian interests have been exposed as lies by the Mueller report, American attention is free to take up some other nonsensical campaign. The succession of these stupidities is destroying America’s reputation.
True, some of the most crazed of the Democrats and media whores cannot let go of Russiagate. The presstitutes are saying that Trump would be impeached for his non-crime except the unworthy Democrats had rather go back to the business of spending other people’s money. A crazed professor or two have declared that Mueller was part of the “Trump coverup” and that Mueller needs to be investigated. But these claims simply underline that the United States wasted three years of its existence.
Meanwhile, other countries moved on.
The Russians, for example, discovered that Washington’s sanctions had a silver lining. Russia became more self-sufficient economically and moved out of the box of being an exporter of raw materials to the West, a box into which the Americans and the American-brainwashed Russian economics profession had put the Russian government.
The fulminations and threats from Washington against Russia brought forth new Russian weapon systems for which the US has no match or defense, weapons that demote the US to a second-rate military power.
On an adjusted basis, China now has the world’s largest economy and increasingly ignores Washington’s blustering. As does Iran.
Even Venezuela stands up to Washington.
The world is concluding that Washington is not the power it thinks it is.
Washington’s abuse of its reserve currency role and violations of international law have encouraged a movement away from the use of the dollar in international transactions. This is perhaps even a more serious threat to Washington’s power than Russia’s superior military capabilities.
President Franklin D. Roosevelt was happy to see World War II because he understood that it would leave Britain bankrupt and without an empire. Roosevelt understood that the gain would be America’s, because the US would take over the reserve currency role. The reason this is important is that the reserve currency country can pay its bills by printing money. Thus, the government has no budget constraints.
For a country as indebted as America, to lose this role would be a crushing blow. It is this blow that Washington faces as a result of its idiotic policy of sanctions and disrespect of international law.
And there is another blow. Just as the Roman Empire fell to invaders who crossed the frontiers of the empire, so is Washington’s empire falling. Europe, the crown jewel of the empire, is now overrun with millions of unassimilable peoples to the extent that Europe is no longer European. The President of the US has so far been powerless to defend the borders of the United States. Indeed, the Democratic Party and the presstitute media are totally opposed to any defense of American borders. Why does a government unwilling to defend its borders spend $1,000 billion annually on defense?
The American Neoconservative Zionists, who have controlled US foreign policy in Israel’s interest since the Clinton regime, continue to operate as if we still live in an unipolar world. For some reason the National Security Advisor to President Trump has poor sources of information. He speaks as if he rules the world, but even Washington’s pathetic European vassals did not go along with Trump’s gift of the Syrian Golan Heights to Israel.
As for moral authority, after, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Syria, Yeman, Ukraine, Honduras, and now Venezuela, all moral authority has vacated the West.
Washington is not only losing its economic and military power but also its soft power that rested in Washington’s propaganda about making the world safe for democracy. Democracy is not even safe in the United States as Democrats and the presstitutes have done their best to overturn democracy and to drive the elected president from office, which is precisely what the Trump regime is trying to do to Venezuela.
All of the lies and propaganda that have portrayed the West as God’s gift to humanity have fallen away as the result of Washington’s irresponsible use of power, leaving the West morally naked.
The world no longer thinks that the West is something to look up to and to emulate. Instead, the world sees a great evil, in the words of Matt Taibbi, “a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money.”
A great promise was betrayed by those trusted with the promise. A government accountable to law and to the people requires a united people, not the disunity of multiculturalism and Identity Politics. With the indigenous ethnic base of all of the Western countries under attack as “white supremacists,” the West can no longer defend its culture from the immigrants who do not share the culture.
The tension between an indigenous culture and imported cultures can be seen in the tensions between Hungary and the EU and Italy and the EU. Hungary has refused to accept its quota of non-European immigrants and faces punishment by the EU. In Italy the government is in the hands of a coalition of leftwing and rightwing parties that are united in their opposition to the EU and non-European immigration. In Europe the situation is one in which the EU government, as well as the governments of member states such as France and Germany, have taken the side of immigrants against the indigenous people. In other words, the governments of Europe are not committed to their own cultures. This is the unmistakable sign of a dead culture.
In the United States there is so much disunity that to call the states united is a misuse of words. Hillary voters hate Trump voters, and vice versa. The presstitute media and universities are uniformly anti-white.
Countries without unity are not strong. Consequently, the Western world is losing its leadership of the world.
Of course, the rest of the world also suffers from disunity. The Sunni and the Shiites cannot unite, with the consequence that the Muslim world is weak. The tribes in Africa cannot unite. India and Pakistan stay at each other’s throats. Animosities exist among Asians. Russia herself is a federation. China has a Muslim province. But the disunities are different from those in the West. Japan and China have differences but the population of Japan is homogeneous and China largely is. Arabs are Arabs whether Sunni or Shiite. The Russian Federation is the remains of an old empire, largely assimilated, not the result of recent immigrations.
The consequence of disunity perhaps precludes any leadership. But the collapse of the West into diversity and multiculturalism definitely means that Western leadership has been lost to the weakness of disunity.
Is it chaos that awaits?
- Army Seeks Future Attack Helicopter To Replace Apache Fleet
The U.S. Army is considering whether it should purchase Future Attack Reconnaissance Aircraft (FARA) to replace its aging fleet of Boeing AH-64 Apache and Bell OH-58D Kiowa Warrior copters, reported Task & Purpose.
“The FARA will only replace Apaches in our heavy attack reconnaissance squadrons and this represents about half of the Apache fleet,” a spokesperson for Army Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Milley told Aviation Week.
“There have already been serious questions about whether the AH-64 platform will be able to remain relevant, especially in a high-end conflict environment, through 2048, when the Army plans to retire the very last of the gunships,” Joseph Trevithick at The War Zone explained.
“The Army expects to be integrating significant upgrades into its latest AH-64E Guardian variants through 2026. These include updates to its fire control and targeting systems, improved data sharing and fusion capabilities, better sensors, a more robust ability to work directly with unmanned aircraft and more,” Trevithick added.
In 2018, the Army selected several FARA candidates. Sikorsky is currently in the running with the S-97 Raider high-speed scout and attack helicopter. Bell is developing a V-280 Valor tiltrotor that was also selected.
Video: Sikorsky S-97 Raider flight test
Video: Bell V-280 Valor flight test
“We’re looking for an aircraft that, without going into specific requirements or classifications, essentially goes further, can see further, can acquire specific targets further and can engage at greater ranges than current exist and has greater legs – can fly further with a greater payload of weapon systems,” Milley told Congress on March 26, 2019.
The Army could purchase hundreds of FARA helicopters within the next ten years. If a new helicopter replaces the AH-64 and OH-58D, then the service could be looking at 700 new aircraft – a contract worth tens of billions of dollars.
- Pentagon Obsession: China, China, China
Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Strategic Culture Foundation,
Chinese nuclear bombers. Chinese hypersonic missiles. Chinese carrier killer missiles. Chinese cyberattacks. Chinese anti-satellite weaponry. Chinese militarization of the South China Sea. Chinese Huawei spying.
So many Chinese “malign intentions”. And we’re not even talking about Russia.
Few people around the world are aware that the Pentagon for the moment is led by a mere “acting” Defense Secretary, Patrick Shanahan.
That did not prevent “acting” Secretary to shine in the red carpet when presenting the Trump administration’s 2020 Pentagon budget proposal – at $718 billion – to the Senate Armed Services Committee: the top US national security threat is, in his own (repeated) words, “China, China, China”.
“Acting” Shanahan has been in charge since Jim “Mad Dog” Mattis – the original butcher of Fallujah in 2004 – resigned last December. His former employer happened to be Boeing. The Pentagon’s inspector general is still investigating whether Shanahan was in fact acting as a no holds barred Boeing commercial asset whenever he met the Pentagon top brass.
That, of course, fits the classic Beltway “revolving door” pattern. Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics, a Washington-based group, actually filed a complaint around the fact that “acting” Shanahan blasted Lockheed Martin, Boeing’s competitor, in every top-level Pentagon meeting.
Shanahan told the Senate, “China is aggressively modernizing its military, systematically stealing science and technology, and seeking military advantage through a strategy of military-civil fusion.”
That includes Beijing’s development of a nuclear-capable long-range bomber that, according to Shanahan, will put it on the same level as the US and Russia as the only global powers controlling air-, sea- and land-based nuclear weapons.
It’s essential to remember that Mattis and Shanahan are the main authors of the National Defense Strategy adopted by the Trump administration which accuses China of striving for “Indo-Pacific regional hegemony in the near-term and displacement of the United States to achieve global pre-eminence in the future.”
Now compare it with Col. Larry Wilkerson’s view; the whole Pentagon show is all about offense while Russia and China are always emphasizing defense.
Fighting the Trojan Horse
Even more enlightening is to directly compare the Pentagon approach with the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces under its chief, Gen. Valeriy Gerasimov.
Gerasimov identified “the US and its allies” as engaged in permanent war of all types, including “preparation for ‘global strike’, ‘multi-domain battle’, [and the] use of the technology of ‘color revolutions’ and ‘soft power’. Their goal is the elimination of the statehood of undesirable countries, undermining their sovereignty, changing the legitimately elected public authorities. Thus it was in Iraq, in Libya and in Ukraine. Now similar actions are observed in Venezuela.”
So there it is, graphically explained: Venezuela, geostrategically, is as important to Moscow as Syria and Ukraine.
Gerasimov also detailed how, “the Pentagon has begun to develop a fundamentally new strategy of warfare, which has been dubbed the ‘Trojan Horse’. Its essence lies in the active use of the ‘protest potential of the fifth column’ in order to destabilize the situation with simultaneous strikes by precision-guided weapons on the most important targets.”
Then the clincher; “The Russian Federation is ready to oppose every one of these strategies. In recent years, military scientists, together with the General Staff, have developed conceptual approaches to neutralize the aggressive actions of potential opponents. The field of research of military strategy is armed struggle, its strategic level. With the emergence of new areas of confrontation in modern conflicts, methods of struggle are increasingly shifting towards the integrated application of political, economic, information and other non-military measures, implemented with the support of military force.”
Call it Russia’s response to Made in USA Hybrid War. With the major incentive of being a value for money operation; after all the Russian General Staff, unlike the Pentagon, is not in the business, for all practical purposes, of stealing trillions of dollars from taxpayers for several decades.
There’s no question the Chinese leadership, not exactly adept at state of the art Hybrid War techniques, is studying the Russian military strategies in excruciating detail.
Of course this is all intrinsically linked to Putin’s leadership. Last month, in Moscow, Rostislav Ishchenko, arguably the top Russian analyst of the Ukraine saga, explained it to me in detail:
“Putin does not ‘take over the elites’ or ‘guide the nation.’ His genius lies in an acute intuitive sense of the strategic needs of the nation (which creates a strong feedback and causes absolute trust of the absolute majority of the people), but most importantly, he is a master of political compromise, understanding the importance of maintaining peace between different social, economic, and political groups within the country, to ensure its stability, prosperity, and international authority. Given that foreign policy is always a continuation of domestic policy, we can clearly trace his desire for compromise in Russian international activity.”
“Putin, Ishchenko added, “does not try to suppress the opponents even in those cases when Russia is unconditionally stronger and the result of the confrontation will clearly be in her favor. Putin understands that both the loser and the winner lose in the confrontation. Therefore, he always offers a compromise for a long time, almost to the last opportunity, even to those who clearly do not deserve it, moving to other solutions only after the opponent has clearly crossed all possible red lines and can pose a threat to the vital interests of Russia. An agreement based on consideration of each other’s interests is always stronger than any short-term ‘victories’, which tomorrow will result in the need to reaffirm their status of the winner again and again. It seems to me that Putin understands this well. Hence the effectiveness of his actions. You can also take a look at his team. These are professionals who adhere to a variety of ideological views (or do not adhere to any). The main thing is that they perform their work qualitatively. The ability to manage such a team is another of its undoubted advantages. After all, these are all ambitious people who are aware of their professionalism and are able to defend their opinion, which is not always the same for everyone. Nevertheless, they work as a single mechanism and achieve really great results.”
Watch out for Yoda’s hordes
To expect the same from the US industrial-military-surveillance complex would be idle.
In fact, “acting” Shanahan’s deputy, Under Secretary David Trachtenberg, doubled down when addressing the Senate Armed Services Committee; he said that Washington will not relinquish its self-attributed right for a nuclear first strike.
In his own words; “A ‘no-first use’ policy would erode US allies’ belief that they are protected.” As if all US allies were begging in unison to be “defended” by US nuclear bombs. In true “war is peace” mode, this Orwellian state of affairs is justified under the Pentagonese notion of “constructive ambiguity”.
The 2018 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) exhibits a long list of causes that may detonate a US nuclear first strike – including a worryingly vague attack on “allied or partner civilian infrastructure”. Even a clumsy false flag, for instance in the South China Sea, could lead to such a stand off.
All of the above is in fact directly linked to the death of Yoda.
Yoda is of course RAND asset Andrew Marshall, who was the director of the nefarious Office of Net Assessment at the Pentagon from 1973 to 2015.
Predictably, scores of Atlanticist think tanks are celebrating Yoda as the winner in devising the new rollback US “strategy” against China.
Yoda did groom scores of analysts across the whole spectrum of the industrial-military-surveilance complex – including think tanks, universities and mainstream media.
So in the end Yoda did body-slam Bismarckian Henry Kissinger – who remains alive, sort of (if Marshall was Yoda, would Kissinger be Darth Vader?) Kissinger always advised containment in relation to China, disguised as what he termed “co-evolution”.
Yoda finished off not only Kissinger but also the Obama administration’s wobbly and ill-defined “pivot to Asia”. Yoda preached hardcore confrontation with China. There’s no question that even beyond the grave, he’ll continue to rule over his warmongering Beltway hordes.
- Illiterate Nigerians Selling Their Young Daughters Over Facebook
Debt-laden parents in the south Nigerian region of Obanliku have been selling their daughters to older men since long before the internet even existed. Now, with the help of their tech-savvy sons, often-illiterate tribesmen have been listing their young daughters on Facebook to be sold into de facto slavery in what is known as “money marriage.”
As the Daily Beast‘s Philip Obaji Jr. reports, girls as young as 10 years old (and by other accounts, age five) in the 17-village-strong Becheve community are often referred to as “money wives,” or “money women,” and are sold in exchange for food, livestock, cash, or to settle debts.
Like hundreds, or perhaps thousands, of girls from the Becheve clan who are victims of money marriages, Monica and her sister were sold without their consent. Their father wanted to clear the debt he owed to a distant relative. The two sisters got married a month apart to men whom they did not know at all and who were old enough to be their grandfathers.
Their respective husbands got in touch with their father after seeing the Facebook page where he posted photos of his six daughters to draw the attention of his tribesmen. The men of the clan have found the new technology helps to extend and expand their old, exploitative traditions. –Daily Beast
“My father knew nothing about Facebook until my elder brother bought him a smartphone and convinced him to join Facebook and post our photographs whenever he likes,” said 16-year-old Monica, one of two sisters who were sold to men over the social media platform. “He’ll buy new clothes and force me and my sisters to put them on before taking photographs of us.”
“It is young people who convince old men to look for wives on Facebook,” said Monica – a former child bride who ran away from her husband to live with friends less than a year after getting married. “The man I married said his oldest son showed him my photo on Facebook and directed him to my father.”
Ogbakoko community via punchng.com It’s not just Nigeria either – last November, Facebook took heat for posts discussing the sale of a 16-year-old South Sudanese girl who was sold for 530 cows, three Land Cruiser V8 cars and $10,000 – after a bidding war broke out between five men, including senior officials in the South Sudanese government.
Facebook said it took down the post as soon it learned of of it on Nov. 9, but that wasn’t until after the victim, Nyalong Ngong Deng Jalang, had been married off as the 10th wife of Kok Alat, a wealthy businessman from the country’s capital city of Juba, on Nov. 3. The post seeking bids for the teenager reportedly was published on Oct. 25.
After publication of the winning bid, Jalang achieved a certain notoriety in local media as “the most expensive woman in South Sudan.” –Daily Beast
The money wives of Bechive are typically not allowed to go to school, and can be traded and sold between husbands. If a money wife’s husband dies, she belongs to his next-of-kin. And if a money wife dies without bearing a child, her parents have the right to bring another girl in the family to replace her. In all scenarios, they aren’t allowed to run back to their parents.
“The practice is meant to boost the status of the men in Becheve community,” said local Ogbakoko chief Magnus Ejikang, who added “The more brides you have, the more respect you gain in the community.”
Marital abuse and exploitation
“Once he married me, he turned me into his slave and punching bag,” said Monica, one of the two daughters sold over Facebook for 20,000 Nigerian naira (approximately $50), along with a pig, two goats and some yams. “He said he paid so much to marry me and so I had to labor hard by working for hours everyday in the farm to prove that I’m a grateful wife.”
Monica and her sister, who is still married to her 65-year-old husband, aren’t the only girls to have ended up in forced marriage after their photos appeared on Facebook. Regina, another teenager from the Becheve tribe, was sold in January by her parents to a man already married with two wives and 11 children. Her husband found her photo on the Facebook page of her uncle, who is notorious for putting photographs of his female relatives on the social media site to draw the attention of men from Becheve seeking child brides. She was then forced into marriage after her uncle pressured her parents, to the dismay of her older brother. –Daily Beast
“Our greedy uncle, in his usual way of manipulating his brothers into selling their daughters, convinced my parents [to give out their daughter in marriage] because he wanted a share of the bride price money,” said John Ashua, whose 15-year-old sister Regina is now part of a plural marriage. “He earns a living by looking for husbands for the girls in the family even when they are not ready to get married.”
Regina, meanwhile, has dropped out of school to do chores at home, including looking after her husband’s livestock. She is frequently beaten.
“He beat me last night because I said I was tired and couldn’t have sex with him,” said the now-pregnant Regina, who added “Whenever he returns home at night, he demands sex.”
Facebook is hugely popular in Nigeria with about a fifth of the country’s 98 million internet users connected to the site. But in rural areas like the Becheve community, where literacy levels are not so high among the elderly, the social media platform is mostly common among young people, who are the greatest owners of smart phones. Activists say youths in the clan are actually the brain behind men searching for money wives on Facebook. –Daily Beast
“The majority of Becheve men knew nothing about Facebook until their sons and other young relatives began to show them photos of young Becheve girls on the platform,” according to Nigerian women’s rights researcher Queen Eteng, who works for Our Women Network. “Most fathers don’t run the Facebook pages opened in their names. Rather it is younger family members who create the pages and post the photos.“
- Religion And The Simulation Hypothesis: Is God An AI?
Authored by Riz Virk via HackerNoon.com,
Do Video Games and the Matrix provide a scientific basis for religious beliefs? (part 1)
For hundreds of years, many well-known scientists weren’t afraid to speak of God (or the importance of consciousness) in their writings, ranging from Newton to Descartes to Einstein. This may partly have sprung initially from not wanting to share the fate of scientists like Galileo whose research was suppressed by a dominant Catholic Church. Over time, though as the Church became less dominant, I suspect it stemmed from a genuine belief that while science was good at making observations, its reductionist tendencies might never be able to explain the unseen worlds of consciousness often explored by religion. As a result, scientists have steered clear of religion as something that is “not scientific” and should only be studied by sociologists.
Recently, a theory has emerged which is causing a lot of scientists to look again at age-old religious concepts, and both video games and science fiction have provided a key part of this new model. This theory, the simulation hypothesis, is the idea that what we perceive as physical reality is actually a computer-generated simulation — like a super sophisticated video game, as depicted in the movie the Matrix.
This month marks the 20th anniversary of the release of this groundbreaking film. While the film had many religious overtones (the emergence of a Messiah to save the human race), it emerged as cultural phenomenon beyond most other films of its day because of its central thesis: that we live in a simulated world and that there is another world beyond what we can see.
This is the first of two articles that examine how many of the ideas put forth by the World’s religions -both Eastern and Western — are not only consistent with the simulation hypothesis, but that this new theory may find a way to bridge the ever-widening gap between religion and science. Part I will focus on the Western religions, specifically God and his Angels and the idea of an afterlife, while Part II will focus on the Eastern religions, specifically about the idea of maya, or illusion, karma and reincarnation.
We’ll see how these religious ideas take on a whole new meaning when viewed through the lens of the simulation hypothesis. In fact, this theory may provide a scientific and technological basis for all of these arguments, showing that the unseen worlds described by the world’s religions may be more scientific than we thought!
Does the Matrix show us a scientific model for religions?
The Matrix, its Religious Overtones and its Central Idea
To recap, in The Matrix, Neo (played by Keanu Reeves), is a computer hacker who discovers mysterious references to something called “the Matrix” online. He eventually meets Morpheus (played by Laurence Fishburne) who explains: “Unfortunately, no one can be told what The Matrix is. You’ll have to see it for yourself.”
Even if you haven’t seen the movie, you’ve probably heard of its most iconic scene: Morpheus gives Neo a choice to take “red pill” to wake up and see what the Matrix is, or take the “blue pill” and keep living his life. Neo takes the red pill and wakes up in the real world to find that what he thought was reality was actually a sophisticated computer simulation — basically an ultra-realistic video game!
Video Games, Virtual Reality and the idea of a Simulated World
The simulation hypothesis was once the domain of science fiction (the creators of the Matrix, the Wachowski’s, claimed to have been inspired by the work of science fiction writer Philip K. Dick among others).
Today, this idea is taken seriously by scholars of philosophy (Oxford’s Nick Bostrom laid out the Simulation Argument in a 2003 paper), physicists (Neil deGrasse Tyson, host of the new Cosmos, and the late Stephen Hawking both took the idea seriously), and most of all by today’s computer scientists.
Why is this idea being taken more seriously now? It’s because of the evolution of video games and AI technology. In fact Elon Musk, founder of Tesla and SpaceX founder, made waves with his statement in 2016 explaining the logic: Forty years ago, the state of the art in video gaming was two lines and a dot, in Pong, which was the first widely available arcade game. Today’s MMORPGS (massively multiplayer online role-playing games) like World of Warcraft and Fortnite, have created shared virtual worlds inhabited by characters controlled by millions of players.
If the fidelity of virtual reality and augmented reality continues to improve, Musk speculated, that we will soon be unable to distinguish between “physical” and “virtual reality”.
While the scientists like Bostrom said little about video games, and Musk said little about uploading and downloading of consciousness, if we take these trend to their logical conclusion, we end up at a point where the simulation hypothesis sounds a lot like what all the religious traditions have been telling us all along!
Western Central Tenet #1: And God Said: Let there Be Light!
Let’s start with the Western traditions (namely, Judaism, Christianity and Islam), or as they are referred to the Abrahamic line of religions. They share many traits, not the least of which is respect for the Old Testament, the oldest part of the Bible.
Genesis from the Old Testament, begins with God saying: “Let there be light, and then there was light.” This is followed by the revelation that God created the Earth in 6 days and then rested on the 7th.
This is of course one of the areas that’s ridiculed by scientists the most. Of course, it takes more than 6 days to form a planet, doesn’t it? Our best estimates are that the Earth is billions of years old. Moreover, if the Earth wasn’t yet created, how could you possibly measure a period of 6 days?
With the introduction of the simulation hypothesis, however, this part of genesis starts to take on new meaning. If we begin to think about the physical world as a computer-generated reality, rather than a physical reality, then this description doesn’t sound so outlandish to scientists. In the world of video games, it can take about 6 seconds to “spin up” a new server or new planet inside a video game world. The groundbreaking video game, No Man’s Sky, used fractal algorithms to generate unique flora and fauna for 18 quintillion planets. All computer programs, including simulations have the idea of clockspeed — which is the minimum time increment that a particular step can take. Even though we might think of it as instant, it takes some amount of time to generate any simulated world.
Time increments inside simulated worlds are set by some “generation” or “step” which is a multiple of the underlying clockspeed of the CPU. For example, if the internal clock speed was 1 millisecond, then it would be impossible to measure less than 1 millisecond. But within a simulation, a “day” or “year” or “step” could be 6 milliseconds or 6000.
Perhaps more important is the action taken by God to create the world — in religious traditions, light seems to have a special status.
Figure 1: Light plays a fundamental role in Religion, Physics and Video Games
As we look at modern physics, we have found that everything we thought of as the physical world has been proven to be mostly (99%) empty space. Solids vs. liquids vs. gasses are just collections of atoms and molecules moving differently. This lends credence to the idea that the physical universe really doesn’t exist — what exists is an arrangement of information that represents the atoms and the molecules.
Einstein’s theory of relativity found that that only true constant in physics is light. Light is special, though no one knows why. In fact, you might say that light is the only true “fundamental” in physics. We haven’t been able to figure out why.
Within computer simulations also, light is also special. In fact, computer graphics consists of pixels based on information — these pixels are “rendered” into the physical world that exists inside the game — what I like to call “The Rendered World”. The rendering is all about lighting up pixels based on different values to present different colors — to turn a dark screen into a “world”!
Why would the only fundamental in physics be the speed of electromagnetic radiation, which is also the speed at which we send signals inside and between computers? Moreover, the Western religions are telling us explicitly that God created the world in the same way that we would render a video game world — by “turning on the lights” of the pixels of the physical world?
Western Central Tenet #2: Angels and the Afterlife in Video Games
Most religions are concerned with what happens to us after death. In fact, you might say that this is the central issue and main reason to have religion in the first place! In the Western religious traditions, one of the main teachings is that we have an immortal soul which is judged based upon our actions in this life. This judgement is based on reviewing what we do in the “here” in the physical world, and this behavior determines where we end up in the “hereafter”, or the afterlife.
Depending on which particular branch of the Western traditions we are looking at, there are variations on this same basic theme (purgatory for example in the Catholic Church vs the Eastern orthodox). In pretty much of all of these cases, there is what we might call Heaven and Hell. In Judaism (again depending on specific interpretations) there is Heaven which is Gen Eden(the Garden of Eden), and Hell which is called Gen Hanum. In Islam, Heaven is called Jannah (basically the Garden of Milk and Honey), and as if to emphasize it’s the same place as the Old Testament, Hell uses almost exactly the same phrase: Jahannam.
How is this determination done exactly? In Islam, which is the newest of these religions, we are given more specifics. In the Koran (and the Hadith, the second most authoritative text), it specifically mentions that each of us has a “Scroll of Deeds”. Not only does God review our Scroll of Deeds with us after death, but he also shows us the consequences of our actions. Because we may not even realize that some of our deeds had repercussions beyond what we know, this is not a simple process but requires broadening our perspective.
Figure 2: A Depiction of a Recording Angel from Washington DC
Who is recording information in this scroll of deeds, and how is it shown to us? In Islam, the recording angels, theKiramin Kitabare two angels which record our “good deeds” and “bad deeds”. Now you may have seen the modern cartoons which show an angel and a devil on each shoulder. It turns out the source of this picture is most likely the Islamic traditions, where the prophet tells the faithful that each person has two entities — an angel and a jinn, one on each shoulder which are there to guide us towards good or bad deeds.
In the Christian traditions, the recording angel is the same as our guardian angels, and in both the Christian and Jewish traditions, the “Book of Life” is substituted for the “Scroll of Deeds” (in one case it is simply a list of those who get into heaven, in other traditions it is pretty much the same as the Scroll of Deeds).
Could this really be happening — our deeds and their repercussions beings recorded somewhere (outside the rendered world) by Angels (or literally, messengers of God), and if so, how would it work?
Figure 3: Are Angels Really AI daemons? A Disney representation
More importantly, what does all this have to do with video games and the Matrix?
It turns out quite a lot! It’s obvious that as we go through life, there is a “score” which is clearly visible to the angels (who are not in our physical reality but can see everything that is going on). You might say they are scorekeepers of a video game that we cannot see inside the “rendered world”.
Moreover, how would you record good deeds and bad deeds in a three-dimensional world? Again, video games give us the answer. In eSports video games today, key moves are recorded while the game is being played, by commentators who are outside the rendered world, watching it. Usually this is done automatically using screen capture software and sometimes streamed live.
Could these recording angels actually be some form of AI? Is it likely that with 7 billion of us on this planet, there are 14 billion angels whose simple job it is to record everything we do? Modern computer science provides the answer — it makes sense for AI to act like an automated screen capture which records the important points in our games and then plays it back to us.
Recently, I was part of a video game company which not only recorded key moments inside a 3d MMORPGs like World of Warcraft and League of Legends. it could play back the key moments so that we could review what we did right and what we did wrong. What was unique about this 3D recording was we could play it back the game not just from the point of view of the original player’s character, but from the point of view of any other player in the game! We could literally see the impact of our actions on the other players of the game!
Sound familiar? Not only is it like the Scroll of Deeds, but it’s also pretty much like what we call a Life Review. The term was coined by Dr. Raymond Moody when he was studying NDE’s (or Near Death Experiences). He found by studying thousands of cases of people who were “clinically” dead but were resuscitated, that they all reported similar elements in their experience. One of the most common was a Life Review, where an angel (or being of light) played back scenes from this person’s life to them. One of the most famous of these was Dannion Brinkley, who wrote the bestseller Saved by the Light. Not only did Dannion remember this Life Review — he went out of his way to say it was a 360 degree Life Review — you got to see not only your actions, but the consequences of your actions from the point of view of other people!
The golden rule was enforced by quite literally forcing you to see the “game” played back from other player’s characters!
In fact, some kind of 3D screen capture, with some AI, may be the only way to accomplish what is described to us in the religious texts and is one of the key precepts of these religions!
Recording angels are more likely messengers of God in a literal sense that are tasked with watching what we do. How do we send messages today — through automated computer programs of course. In computer science, code that runs on its own as a separate process which monitors what we are doing are often referred to as Daemons, the Greek term for Demons. This may be more appropriate than the original namers realized — though perhaps they should be called Seraph, the Greek term for angels!
These aren’t the only things happening with God that are better handled by an AI than an all-powerful deity — think of billions of prayers coming into a central system — how would God, or Jehovah as he is called in the Old Testament, deal with this many prayers? An intelligent system of “angels” might be the only way to do this.
This initial analysis shows that the simulation hypothesis, the central theory which emerged from the release of the Matrix 20 years ago, may provide a scientific model for the things that prophets and religious texts have been telling us all along: that we are in a simulated world, like a video game, and that there are beings (or processes) outside of this world that are watching everything we do.
In Part 2, we will explore some of the ideas that underlie some of the Eastern religious traditions and show how the simulation hypothesis may provide the crucial model linking all of these traditions into modern science.
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NOTE: On the 20th anniversary of the release of the Matrix, MIT and Stanford grad Rizwan Virk is releasing his book, The Simulation Hypothesis: An MIT Computer Scientists Shows Why AI, Quantum Physics and Eastern Mystics Agree We Are In a Video Game, which explores the scientific, philosophic and religious basis of this theory. This is one in a series of articles which explore different aspects of the simulation hypothesis – visit www.zenentrepreneur.com to learn more.
- March Payrolls Preview: Expect A Sharp Rebound
Nonfarm payrolls are expected to revert to a more trend-like pace in March, following the sub-par Feb data (which was likely due to one-time effects, according to analysts). The jobless rate is seen remaining at 3.8%. Wage growth is seen moderating a touch, though would still be consistent with the recent pick-up.
Here, courtesy of RanSquawk are the key sellside expectations for the payrolls report:
- Non-farm Payrolls: Exp. 180k, Prev. 20k.
- Unemployment Rate: Exp. 3.8%, Prev. 3.8% (the FOMC currently projects unemployment will stand at 3.7% at the end of 2019, and 4.3% in the longer-run).
- Avg Earnings Y/Y: Exp. 3.3%, Prev. 3.2%.
- Avg Earnings M/M: Exp. 0.3%, Prev. 0.4%.
- Avg Work Week Hours: Exp. 34.5hrs, Prev. 34.4hrs.
- Private Payrolls: Exp. 170k, Prev. 25k.
- Manufacturing Payrolls: Exp. 10k, Prev. 4k.
- Government Payrolls: Prev. -5k.
- U6 Unemployment Rate: Prev. 7.3%.
- Labour Force Participation: Prev. 63.2%.
EXPECTATIONS: The sub-par 20k payroll addition in February was likely lowered by payback from unusually strong increases in previous months and idiosyncratic effects such as weather, Nomura says. This month, nonfarm payrolls are expected at 180k (range: 120k-282k); unemployment rate exp unchanged at 3.8%. If the consensus is correct, payroll growth would still be beneath its 3-, 6- and 12-month averages (12-month average 209k, 6-month average 190k, 3-month average 186k).
WAGES: Average hourly earnings are expected to be unchanged at 3.4% Y/Y, 0.2% M/M vs prior 0.4%; average weekly hours exp 34.5hrs vs 34.4hrs prior. The pace of wage gains is seen moderating a touch in the month. Citi says that while this is a softer increase than last month’s upside surprise, it is still a pace consistent with the recent acceleration in wage gains. “It continues to be our expectation that with a low unemployment rate and a wage-Phillips curve relationship that is alive-and well, wage gains can continue in the recent 3.0-3.5%YoY range for much of this year,” Citi says, but says that wage gains will not be significantly passed through to higher consumer prices. “After likely remaining somewhat below 2% for much of 2019, core PCE is likely to stabilize closer to 2% only later in the second half of the year.”
CLAIMS DATA: In the survey week, initial jobless claims fell by 8k to 216k (with the 4-week moving average rising slightly to 220.5k). That compares with 213k in the February survey period, (where the 4-week moving average was 229.5k). The data in the March survey week might be explained by unfriendly seasonals, Pantheon Macroeconomics noted. “The trend in claims has nudged higher as growth has slowed, thanks mostly to the fading of the tax cuts and the hit to manufacturing from China’s slowdown and the trade war,” adding that the trend-rate is probably around 225K, but that is expected to move higher into the spring. The consultancy argued that this was not the end-of-the-cycle surge in claims, which is more likely to come next year or even as late as 2021.
ADP PAYROLLS: ADP reported 129k payrolls were added to the US economy in March, disappointing the consensus looking for 175k. Pantheon Macroeconomics reminds us that ADP’s model incorporates prior official payroll data as well as information from firms which use its payroll processing services, so it’s possible that the fluke 25K private payroll number for February pulled down the March ADP. “Frustratingly, the influence of the prior month’s official numbers is impossible to isolate consistently in advance,” Pantheon writes, “usually, the effect of weak official numbers on the next ADP reading is seen in the month after severe weather events — February’s survey week was much colder than January’s, relative to seasonal norms — and typically the official number for the month after the weather event is stronger than ADP.” Pantheon goes on to say that the first alternative story, in which ADP has captured a real downshift in payroll growth, cannot be ruled out, “but is very hard to square with the survey evidence and the newly-revised, lower, jobless claims numbers,” and “the final possibility is that greater-than-usual snow cover in March, relative to February — adjusted for seasonal norms — hit March payrolls, despite only modestly colder-than-usual temperatures,” and the uncertainty here is huge, “so prudence dictates that we nudge down our forecast for the official number to about 160K from 180K, but this is a very tricky call.”
ISM SURVEYS: The manufacturing ISM report saw the employment sub-index jump by 5.2 points to 57.5 in March, signalling that employment has grown for a thirtieth straight month. “Employment continued to expand, improving on February’s performance and achieving its highest expansion level since November 2018, when the index registered 57.7 percent,” ISM said (reading above 50.8 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment). The rise in the services report was more modest at 0.7 points, taking the sub-index to 55.9 (registering the 61st consecutive month of expanding jobs in the services sector). Respondents said “staffing up as business grows” and “Difficulty recruiting in a full employment environment.”
CHALLENGER JOB CUTS: US employers are planning to cut 60,587 jobs from payrolls in March, Challenger reported, -21% M/M. Challenger also notes that in Q1 as a whole, job cuts were up 10.3% Q/Q and +35.6% higher than Q1 2018. “Companies appear to be streamlining and updating their processes, and workforce reductions are increasingly becoming a part of these decisions. Consumer behaviour and advances in technology are driving many of these cuts,” Challenger said, adding “another major driver of the uptick in job cuts is economic uncertainty and fears of an upcoming downturn. Companies are reacting to market conditions as much as consumer demand.”
Arguing for a stronger report, via Goldman Sachs:
Winter weather. Winter weather likely lowered job growth in February by around 100k, much of which itself reflected payback from the relatively mild weather in December and January. In March, survey-week snowfall swung from above-average to below-average, with a 1.3-inch seasonally adjusted decline vs. February (population-weighted basis, see Exhibit 1), and our payroll forecast embeds a boost from weather of around 20k, relative to trend.
Jobless claims. Initial jobless claims declined over the four weeks between the payroll reference periods (-5k to 221k on average, lowest since November). Continuing claims also fell from survey week to survey week (-18k to 1,755k), but we currently place much more weight on the initial claims reading due to the likely impact of residual seasonality.
Business surveys. While business survey headline indices were mixed-to-weaker in March[1], the employment components of both the services and manufacturing employment trackers generally increased (+1.2pt to 55.2 and +1.3pt to 57.0, respectively). Taken together, business surveys suggest a solid rebound in job growth in March, but with an underlying pace somewhat below what was seen in mid-2018 (see Exhibit 2). Service-sector job growth rose 57k in February and averaged 156k over the last six months. Manufacturing payroll employment rose 4k in February and increased 20k on average over the last six months.
Arguing for a weaker report:
Job availability. The Conference Board labor market differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hard to get—declined by 5.7pt to +28.3 in March, its largest monthly decline since February 2009 (see left panel of Exhibit 3). While concerning, this weakness may be telling us more about February than about March, as the widely reported payrolls miss at a time when recession fears were rising may have influenced survey responses. While we do not have a detailed demographic breakdown for the Conference Board measure, the UMich “unfavorable employment news” component rose by 10pp among higher-income consumers—who on average are more likely to follow financial news—whereas it rose only 0.5pp across the other two thirds of the income distribution. As shown in the right panel of the same exhibit, changes in the Conference Board labor market differential are somewhat predictive of payroll surprises, but the relationship breaks down following large misses in the previous month (i.e. the best fit line actually slopes downward for the dark blue datapoints).
ADP. The payroll-processing firm ADP reported a 129k increase in March private payroll employment—46k below consensus and well below the +214k average pace over the prior six months. The March ADP report suggests that the underlying pace of job growth is moderating, though some of the weakness probably reflects a mechanical drag from prior-month nonfarm payroll growth (an input to the ADP model). We also note that weather tends to affect the official payroll measure more so than it affects the ADP series (a positive factor this month, in our view).
ADP. The payroll-processing firm ADP reported a 129k increase in March private payroll employment—46k below consensus and well below the +214k average pace over the prior six months. The March ADP report suggests that the underlying pace of job growth is moderating, though some of the weakness probably reflects a mechanical drag from prior-month nonfarm payroll growth (an input to the ADP model). We also note that weather tends to affect the official payroll measure more so than it affects the ADP series (a positive factor this month, in our view).
Neutral factors:
Job cuts. Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas declined by 11k in March to 55k (SA by GS). Announced job cuts in March are slightly below their March 2018 level (-1k yoy).
- Companies Crushed By Heavy Demand For Gun Magazines From California
Authored by John Crump via AmmoLand.com,
Since Friday’s landmark court decision that legalized magazines holding more than ten rounds in California buyers have been going crazy with purchases.
Most online retailers have resumed the sales of magazines of all sizes to the people of the Golden State. Rainier Arms has seen a significant uptick in traffic with most sales being for the Magpul Gen2 30 round magazine. This increase in internet transactions has even crashed Rainier Arms payment processing server.
“We received such an overwhelming surge of sales over the weekend, it actually crashed our merchant services, the website was fine, but our payment services were so overwhelmed it crashed,” said Aristotle Bartolome of Rainier Arms.
“With that said, we closed out a very strong weekend, and even with the chaos, we’re currently 48 hours behind on getting all of the weekend orders caught up and adjusting staffing to better support our customers getting their orders quicker.”
Rainier Arms isn’t alone in their increase in sales. Brownells is also reporting an increase in magazines sales to California. They are seeing residents “stocking up” on AR15 magazines as well. Brownells is one of the largest gun retailers on the web.
California residents are in a rush to buy up magazines before the state can appeal U.S. District Judge Roger Benitez’s decision to the Ninth Circuit Court. The judge’s decision stunned the California Attorney General and the gun community as well. It went further than either side anticipated.
One California resident, Adelaide Golden, told me that she thinks that all gun owners in the state need to take advantage of the opportunity to purchase standard compacity magazines while they are shipping to the state.
“In a national and local environment that is increasingly hostile to responsible gun owners, it’s important to take advantage of opportunities that present,” Golden said.
“With the overturn of unconstitutional limits on magazine sizes, I, as a California resident, can finally have standard size magazines that can make a small difference at the range and a huge difference if I’m ever forced to defend myself or my home.”
Some gun owners were worried that the price of magazines would increase with the potential run on the product. Primarily this increase in price hasn’t happened. In fact, a lot of websites are running deals for California residents. Companies are there to make a profit, but it seems like a lot of companies are taking this opportunity to spread the message of liberty.
Brownells is trying to flood California with AR15 magazines. The firearms retailer is currently selling 10 packs of 30 round Magpul GEN2 magazines for $99.99 which saves the residents $30.
Elite Tactical Components are also helping out the people of the state but are focusing on the AK market. That site is selling blem 30 round XTech MAG47 magazines for only $10. The deal is just for residents of California.
In a statement released to AmmoLand Elite Tactical Components said: “Elite Tactical Components is excited to do our part in getting standard capacity freedom into the hands of Californians!”
Other websites have followed suit by offering California specific deals, but as soon as the sales go live, the companies sell out of their stock of gun magazines.
Natchez Shooters Supplies sold out of a lot of magazines due to the increase in sales from California. When the ruling came down, they put together an email to send out to their customers. Business was so brisk for the company that they had to redesign the email due to selling out of a lot of their magazine products that were going to be featured in the email.
There is no telling how many magazines retailers have shipped to California since the judge lifted the ban on the sale of standard capacity magazines. One sure thing is that residents of the state are taking advantage of the new ability to defend themselves by buying 10+ round magazines at a record pace.
- Nine Reasons Why You Should Support Joe Biden For President
Authored by Caitlin Johnstone via Medium.com,
Former Vice President Joe Biden has released a video statement telling the American people that the accusations he is now facing of touching women in inappropriate ways without their consent is the product of changing “social norms”, assuring everyone that he will indeed be adjusting to those changes.
And thank goodness. For a minute there, I was worried Biden might cave under the pressure of a looming scandal and decline to run for president on the grounds that it could cripple his campaign and leave America facing another four years of Donald Trump. Here are nine good reasons why I hope Joe Biden runs for president, and why you should support him too:
1. It’s his turn.
It’s Biden’s turn to be president. He’s spent years playing second fiddle while other leading Democrats hogged all the limelight, and that’s not fair. He’s been waiting very patiently. Come on.
2. Most Qualified Candidate Ever.
If Joe Biden secures the Democratic Party nomination for president, he would be the Most Qualified Candidate Ever to run for office. His service as a US Senator and a Vice President has given him unparalleled experience priming him for the most powerful elected office in the world. Everything Biden has done throughout his entire career proves that he’d make a great Commander-in-Chief.
3. He’s closely associated with a popular Democratic president.
You think Biden, you think Obama. You think Obama, you think greatness. You can’t spend that much time with a great Democratic president without absorbing his greatness yourself. It’s called osmosis.
4. You liked Obama, didn’t you?
Biden was part of the Obama administration. Remember the Obama administration? It was magical, right? If you want more of that, vote Biden.
5. But Trump!
Do you want Trump to win the next election? You know he’ll shatter all our norms and literally end the world if he does, right? You should be terrified of the possibility of Trump winning in 2020, and if you are, you should want him running against Joe Biden. What’s the alternative? Nominating some crazy unelectable socialist like Bernie Sanders? Might as well just hand Trump the victory now, then. Anyone who wants to beat Trump must fall in line behind the Most Qualified Candidate Ever.
6. Iraq wasn’t so bad.
Okay, maybe some of his past foreign policy positions look bad in hindsight, but come on. Pushing for the Iraq war was what everyone was doing back in those days. It was all the rage. We all made it through, right? I mean, most of us?
7. This is happening whether you like it or not.
We’re doing this. We’re going to push Joe Biden through whether you like it or not, and we can do it the easy way or the hard way. Just relax, take deep breaths, and think about a nice place far away from here. Don’t struggle. This will be over before you know it. We’ll use plenty of lube.
8. Just vote for him.
Just vote for him, you insolent little shits. Who the fuck do you think you are, anyway? You think you’re entitled to a bunch of ponies and unicorns like healthcare and drinkable water? You only think that because you’re a bunch of racist, sexist homophobes. You will vote for who we tell you to or we’ll spend the next four years calling you all Russian agents and screaming about Susan Sarandon.
9. Nothing could possibly go wrong.
Honestly, what could possibly go wrong? It’s not like the Most Qualified Candidate Ever could manage to lose an election to some oafish reality TV star. Hell, Biden could beat Trump in his sleep. He could even skip campaigning in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and still win by a landslide, because those states are in the bag. There’s no way he could fail, barring some unprecedented and completely unforeseeable freak occurrences from way out of left field that nobody could possibly have anticipated.
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