- The Siege Of Waco & The Deep State
The Siege Of Waco & The Deep State
Authored by John Wilder via WilderWealthyWise.com,
“There’s a reason you separate military and the police. One fights the enemies of the state, the other serves and protects the people. When the military becomes both, then the enemies of the state tend to become the people.”
– Battlestar Galactica (New One)
Don’t worry, Leftists, all those people at Waco were here legally.
The Waco Siege started 27 years ago. It started as a raid by the ATF – Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms. The ATF was formed after the Gun Control act of 1968. In researching the ATF, I was amazed that its history consists of nothing more than an unending series of scandals and heartache visited upon (mainly) people with no criminal intent who had no idea that they were violating some extremely technical law. And that’s on a good day.
How bad is the ATF? Here’s what a Senate subcommittee said: “Based upon these hearings it is apparent that ATF enforcement tactics made possible by current federal firearms laws are constitutionally, legally, and practically reprehensible.” From that, it actually got worse.
The ATF was involved (besides Waco) in the Ruby Ridge disaster (which netted a body count that included a 14 year old boy and a mother holding a baby) as well as operation Fast and Furious where guns were intentionally illegally sold to Mexican drug criminals. It’s okay selling guns to drug cartels because Fast and Furious was named after a Vin Diesel movie, and who doesn’t like him?
It appears that most of the actually useful things that the ATF does revolve around databases that attempt to match weapons to crimes. Keeping close to computer screens and away from actual A, T, and F might be a good idea, since they’ve lost (in just one audit) over 76 firearms, plus hundreds of laptops. Oops. Too much A? And this is the group that reveres Elliot Ness and the famous Untouchables as their forefathers.
Looks like the Deputy Director really wanted to win the pie eating contest with the FBI, so they hired Karen.
In an existence consisting of repugnant, objectionable, and odious events the Waco Siege is probably their crowning achievement. Waco is certainly the worst single thing the ATF has ever done. The fact that it’s not the only bad thing people talk about when they bring up the ATF tells you just how incompetent they are.
What did the ATF do that was so bad at Waco?
They launched a military-style raid against a church, the Branch Davidians, for no real discernible crime other than being a great target for a raid that could get publicity right before Congressional budgets were set. Oh, and ATF agents knowingly lied in order to get military support, indicating that there were illegal drugs at the church when there was no evidence at all. And this is just for starters.
On the morning of the attack, the agents shot the dogs, then engaged in a firefight with the members of the church. The ATF says they didn’t shoot first. The surviving Branch Davidians say the ATF did shoot first. Since the ATF was recording the raid for use in public relations, it seems odd that they don’t have footage of that. Almost as if the tapes were . . . conveniently lost? Nah.
The ATF may be evil, but they make up for it partly by being incompetent. After 45 minutes of exchanging gunfire with the Branch Davidians, the ATF asked for a do-over, since they had shot all of their ammunition. The church allowed and honored a ceasefire when they could have easily killed every single ATF agent as they tried to withdraw. But the folks in the church didn’t. Once the threat of attack had passed, they let the agents leave in piece. Did I mention that the Branch Davidians called 911 when they were first attacked?
ATF agents are notoriously bad at knock-knock jokes.
The Waco Siege then spiraled into a circus. The press, FBI, and the Texas National Guard all showed up. When a group of moms and kids surrendered, the moms were immediately arrested and the kids placed in state custody, which made the remaining kids not want to leave. Funny, that. The FBI hostage negotiators sent in a camcorder so the Davidians could show they weren’t being coerced into staying. The FBI refused to allow the tape to be given to the media. Why?
It might make people sympathetic to the Branch Davidians, which wouldn’t do because the FBI needed them to be the villain.
During the standoff, the FBI continually ramped up the stress through lights at night, and horrible sounds during the day – which is probably a questionable strategy when dealing with an end-of-the-world cult. The FBI then decided that broadcasting “This is not an assault” over a loudspeaker while using a tank to demolish the structure and pump in flammable tear gas. If that’s not an assault, I’m not sure what is, especially since there are infrared recordings that may show muzzle flashes on the morning of the attack – muzzle flashes of people outside shooting into the compound. Apparently, this sort of behavior isn’t an assault – it’s just the non-threatening way that FBI agents normally great each other.
I will warn you, the FBI can leave a mess.
Malcolm Gladwell tallied the forces in his article for the New Yorker:
“Outside the Mount Carmel complex, the FBI assembled what has been called probably the largest military force ever gathered against a civilian suspect in American history: 10 Bradley tanks, two Abrams tanks, four combat-engineering vehicles, 668 agents in addition to six U.S. Customs officers, 15 U.S. Army personnel, 13 members of the Texas National Guard, 31 Texas Rangers, 131 officers from the Texas Department of Public Safety, 17 from the McLennan County sheriff’s office, and 18 Waco police, for a total of 899 people.”
Those were just the ground forces – there were helicopters and other flying surveillance, too.
The Siege ended in tragedy after the tanks went in – a total of 76 dead in that final “not an assault.” The church members perished horribly in a fire that may or may not have been started by the government.
I don’t want to give the impression that the leader of the Branch Davidians, David Koresh, was a hero. He clearly wasn’t. Outside of his taking wives that were very young (though still within Texas marriage age at the time, per the Sheriff), Koresh had the opportunity to end the standoff without tragedy. That still doesn’t absolve the government, because if Koresh felt he wouldn’t get a fair deal, it looks like he was right.
Almost immediately after the first catastrophic attack by the ATF, the involved agents started writing reports on what happened. And were stopped even though writing reports doesn’t allow them to use what is apparently their only skill – bungling operations and getting people killed. Someone from Washington, D.C. noticed that the agents were writing things that could be used by the Davidians to prove themselves innocent, which must violate some sort of ATF policy.
Thankfully, the evidence remaining from the fire was at least carefully cataloged so Americans could have faith that the justice system would produce a fair result? No. The entire site was bulldozed within two weeks after the fire, destroying valuable evidence.
Evidence? Why would you need that?
His courthouse is in the basement of the Alamo.
I mentioned that I was going to write about Waco to The Mrs. We discussed it for a while, but she opened with, “Well, I guess that’s another list you’ll be on.”
We continued to talk about it. Her position was that Waco started the Right/Left split in the country. From one standpoint, she was correct. If you look at the Pew® data from back in 1994 (LINK), we weren’t that split as a country, but by 2017 the split was in force. Waco happened right at the front of the polarization of American politics.
I blame the vegans, ruining Thanksgiving with their stupid tofu turkey.
The Mrs. and I continued discussing the Waco Siege. We both agreed that Waco was also the most blatant display of the Deep State back before the year 2000, and she felt it was the blow that really split the country. How so?
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The search warrant for the raid was based on multiple lies.
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The Branch Davidians had phone lines cut with the outside world so they couldn’t plead their case except through the FBI.
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Evidence was “lost” including physical evidence as well as video evidence.
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Agents writing routine reports after the failed first raid were stopped from creating reports because their stories didn’t match and the government didn’t want to provide evidence that the Branch Davidians could use to be found innocent. Innocence is for government agents, silly.
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Stories of agents never actually matched with each other, being inconsistent as late as 6 years after the raid.
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Physical evidence (as was available) contradicted agent testimony or suggested agents may have lied.
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In the end, every charge that could be brought against the survivors was brought, but there were no charges brought against a single Federal agent. Perhaps 9 (from the data I could find) ATF personnel either retired early (presumably with full benefits and honors) or were “under scrutiny” which probably means that they wouldn’t get promoted again for a year or two.
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There were lasting career consequences, though: one FBI leader was demoted from a very high position, and the rest of his life was horrible. Just kidding. He moved from one high paying executive job in the private sector to another.
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Leftist Senators (most prominently Charles Schumer) bent over backwards to justify what the ATF did during the Senate hearings on the Siege. I can say this with confidence: Chuck Schumer is the ATF of the Senate.
The parallels to the Deep State today are similar:
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Hillary Clinton can intentionally violate the law related to storage of classified information. No charge.
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The FISA affidavit that started the Mueller investigation could be based on . . . lies. No charge.
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Andrew McCabe could lie to Congress. No charge.
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John Brennan could lie to Congress. No investigation.
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Roger Stone could lie to Congress. No investigation. Just kidding. Hammered as if by the fist of an angry god, and convicted of a crime.
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General Flynn made non-consequential misstatements of fact when he was in a “friendly chat” with FBI agents. No charge. Just kidding. Hounded like he had stolen Satan’s bra and convicted of a crime.
Certainly I could come up with more examples. But the point is clear – the Deep State protects itself first. Members can commit murder, and there will be no charges. Members can lie to cover each other and be immune. Members can destroy evidence without consequence. Members can get in the 10 item only line with 12 items. No consequences.
When I think about why the Deep State would go so far to protect its own, my first question is, why? You see this as a regular fixture with almost any member. Some of those being protected aren’t important. The on-scene director at Waco – why protect him?
The answer is fairly simple: these people know things. They know of the activities that the Deep State wants to hide. They’re the ones who know the real secrets, both on you and me but more importantly on each other.
Why could Waco not be ended peacefully? Because it would give Koresh a victory. And a victory, no matter how small would, they felt, make them less powerful, less respected. There is a reason that the ATF and FBI posed in pictures on the still-smoldering remains of the Branch Davidian compound. There is a reason that after the fire took down the Branch Davidian flag, the ATF raised an ATF flag at Waco.
Nothing says reasonable like a selfie on top of ashes!
That reason is the Deep State’s deepest desire. What does the Deep State want?
Power, both personal power, and power to the organizations they serve. Make no mistake, the Deep State is partisan, and loves all of those who like state control. Why else would they militarize a Federal Bureau that was less effective than Soviet situation comedy writers? You could look into the sneering, mocking weasel face of Peter Strzok while he was giving testimony to Congress and see it in his eyes. Contempt. Contempt for those that weren’t of his Deep State pedigree, and a smugness borne of the thought that there was nothing that could ever be done to him.
Would you trust this man with your secrets?
He had become like the hero of the ATF, Elliot Ness.
He was Untouchable.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/06/2020 – 23:45 -
- Surprise! China Is Using Covid-19 To Strengthen Its Mass Surveillance Of Citizens
Surprise! China Is Using Covid-19 To Strengthen Its Mass Surveillance Of Citizens
As a result of monitoring for coronavirus, the Chinese government is now requiring Chinese citizens to provide personal data, including travel and health conditions, via apps on their smartphone to the government.
Based on the answers that citizens give to the apps, provided by Alibaba and Tencent, algorithms will try to decide whether or not the person is likely to have coronavirus. The apps then assign a red, yellow or green code to the person, depending on their risk of having the virus, according to Nikkei. If you get a red code, you have to self-quarantine or be quarantined in a facility for 14 days.
And citizens can’t lie, because all of the answers they provide about things like hotel stays and travel are cross checked with the government’s data and smartphone location data.
Several provinces also have “social credit” systems where people who lie (as well as smoke, jaywalk, etc.) wind up with lower “social credit scores”. More provinces are expected to implement similar systems soon.
It all rounds out a picture of Beijing increasing its mass surveillance over its citizens. The surveillance can be effective, as China has (supposedly) shown during this outbreak. But people must also consider how the surveillance can also be weaponized to combat mass protests and individual pursuits of justice, the Nikkei op-ed reminds us.
The technology-based anti-outbreak measures are certainly needed now, however. They have allowed over 10 million people in Hangzhou to assess their risk of the coronavirus. The technology being used is in over 200 cities. In Shanghai, for instance, an app is monitoring 245,000 street-front shops with data, which eliminates the need for staff to visit them.
The technology will help in indicating when the outbreak slows, for certain. But there is little transparency on how Beijing collecst the data and what happens to it. One low level official in Jiaxing city said: “Through data analysis, we have mastered the trajectory of everyone’s whereabouts. If you have not reported truthfully, our system will find out.”
The network of surveillance in China – not just related to coronavirus – but also with requirements like needing a state ID to register mobile phones and internet services – has been built gradually. With coronavirus surveillance, its grip on the country’s citizens gets even tighter.
Health data that the country may not have had on its citizens is certain to start populating on government servers. In Hangzhou, for instance, “the government has upgraded the health code to link it to a person’s digital health card, similar to a digital medical record, and social security card, allowing one to make doctor’s appointments, purchase medicine and make payments.”
While now the cause seems somewhat noble and humanitarian, the op-ed concludes with a salient point: once the digital surveillance network in China is fully in place, it simply can’t be un-done.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/06/2020 – 23:25 - Seth Rich, Julian Assange, & Dana Rohrabacher – Will We Ever Know The Truth About The Stolen DNC Files?
Seth Rich, Julian Assange, & Dana Rohrabacher – Will We Ever Know The Truth About The Stolen DNC Files?
Authored by Philip Giraldi via The American Herald Tribune,
The media is doing its best to make the Seth Rich story go away, but it seems to have a life of its own, possibly due to the fact that the accepted narrative about how Rich died makes no sense.
In its latest manifestation, it provides an alternative explanation for just how the information from the Democratic National Committee (DNC) computer somehow made its way to Wikileaks. If you believe that Jeffrey Epstein committed suicide and that he was just a nasty pedophile rather than an Israeli intelligence agent, read no farther because you will not be interested in Rich. But if you appreciate that it was unlikely that the Russians were behind the stealing of the DNC information you will begin to understand that other interested players must have been at work.
For those who are not familiar with it, the backstory to the murder of apparently disgruntled Democratic National Committee staffer Seth Rich, who some days before may have been the leaker of that organization’s confidential emails to Wikileaks, suggests that a possibly motiveless crime might have been anything but.
The Washington D.C. police investigated what they believed to be an attempted robbery gone bad but that theory fails to explain why Rich’s money, credit cards, cell phone and watch were not taken. Wikileaks has never confirmed that Rich was their source in the theft of the proprietary emails that had hitherto been blamed on Russia but it subsequently offered a $20,000 reward for information leading to resolution of the case and Julian Assange, perhaps tellingly, has never publicly clarified whether Rich was or was not one of his contacts, though there is at least one report that he confirmed the relationship during a private meeting.
Answers to the question who exactly stole the files from the DNC server and the emails from John Podesta have led to what has been called Russiagate, a tale that has been embroidered upon and which continues to resonate in American politics. At this point, all that is clearly known is that in the Summer of 2016 files and emails pertaining to the election were copied and then made their way to WikiLeaks, which published some of them at a time that was damaging to the Clinton campaign.
Those who are blaming Russia believe that there was a hack of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) server and also of John Podesta’s emails that was carried out by a Russian surrogate or directly by Moscow’s military intelligence arm.
They base their conclusion on a statement issued by the Department of Homeland Security on October 7, 2016, and on a longer assessment prepared by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence on January 6, 2017. Both government appraisals implied that there was a U.S. government intelligence agency consensus that there was a Russian hack, though they provided little in the way of actual evidence that that was the case and, in particular, failed to demonstrate how the information was obtained and what the chain of custody was as it moved from that point to the office of WikiLeaks. The January report was particularly criticized as unconvincing, rightly so, because the most important one of its three key contributors, the National Security Agency, had only moderate confidence in its conclusions, suggesting that whatever evidence existed was far from solid.
An alternative view that has been circulating for several years suggests that it was not a hack at all, that it was a deliberate whistleblower-style leak of information carried out by an as yet unknown party, possibly Rich, that may have been provided to WikiLeaks for possible political reasons, i.e. to express disgust with the DNC manipulation of the nominating process to damage Bernie Sanders and favor Hillary Clinton.
There are, of course, still other equally non-mainstream explanations for how the bundle of information got from point A to point B, including that the intrusion into the DNC server was carried out by the CIA which then made it look like it had been the Russians as perpetrators. And then there is the hybrid point of view, which is essentially that the Russians or a surrogate did indeed intrude into the DNC computers but it was all part of normal intelligence agency probing and did not lead to anything. Meanwhile and independently, someone else who had access to the server was downloading the information, which in some fashion made its way from there to WikiLeaks.
Both the hack vs. leak viewpoints have marshaled considerable technical analysis in the media to bolster their arguments, but the analysis suffers from the decidedly strange fact that the FBI never even examined the DNC servers that may have been involved. The hack school of thought has stressed that Russia had both the ability and motive to interfere in the election by exposing the stolen material while the leakers have recently asserted that the sheer volume of material downloaded indicates that something like a higher speed thumb drive was used, meaning that it had to be done by someone with actual physical direct access to the DNC system. Someone like Seth Rich.
What the many commentators on the DNC server issue choose to conclude is frequently shaped by their own broader political views, producing a result that favors one approach over another depending on how one feels about Trump or Clinton. Or the Russians. Perhaps it would be clarifying to regard the information obtained and transferred as a theft rather than either a hack or a leak since the two expressions have taken on a political meaning of their own in the Russiagate context. With all the posturing going on, the bottom line is that the American people and government have no idea who actually stole the material in question, though the Obama Administration was extraordinarily careless in its investigation and Russian President Vladimir Putin has generally speaking been blamed for what took place.
The issue currently bouncing around the media concerns an offer allegedly made in 2017 by former Republican Congressman Dana Rohrabacher to imprisoned WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange. According to Assange’s lawyers, Rohrabacher offered a pardon from President Trump if Assange were to provide information that would attribute the theft or hack of the Democratic National Committee emails to someone other than the Russians. He was presumably referring to Seth Rich.
Assange did not accept the offer, but it should be noted that he has repeatedly stated in any event that he did not obtain the material from a Russian or Russian-linked source. In reality, he might not know the original source of the information. Since Rohrabacher’s original statement, both he and Trump have denied any suggestion that there was a firm offer with a quid pro quo for Assange. Trump claims to hardly know Rohrabacher and also asserts that he has never had a one-on-one meeting with him.
The U.S. media’s coverage of the story has emphasized that Assange’s cooperation would have helped to absolve Russia from the charge of having interfered decisively in the U.S. election, but the possible motive for doing so remains unclear. Russian-American relations are at their lowest point since the Cold War and that has largely been due to policies embraced by Donald Trump, to include the cancellation of START and medium range missile agreements. Trump has also approved NATO military maneuvers and exercises right up to the Russian border and has provided lethal weapons to Ukraine, something that his predecessor Barack Obama balked at. He has also openly confronted the Russians in Syria.
Given all of that back story, it would be odd to find Trump making an offer that focuses only on one issue and does not actually refute the broader claims of Russian interference, which are based on a number of pieces of admittedly often dubious evidence, not just the Clinton and Podesta emails. Which brings the tale back to Seth Rich. If Rich was indeed responsible for the theft of the information and was possibly killed for his treachery, it most materially impacts on the Democratic Party as it reminds everyone of what the Clintons and their allies are capable of. It will also serve as a warning of what might be coming at the Democratic National Convention in Milwaukee in July as the party establishment uses fair means or foul to stop Bernie Sanders.
How this will all play out is anyone’s guess, but many of those who pause to observe the process will be thinking of Seth Rich.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/06/2020 – 23:05 - "Bull Market Has Reversed" – NYC Multifamily Building Sales Plunge
“Bull Market Has Reversed” – NYC Multifamily Building Sales Plunge
A new report from PropertyShark, a real estate data provider, said the New York City multifamily market shifted from “bull to bear in 2019.”
PropertyShark said multifamily sales in Manhattan, Brooklyn, the Bronx, and Queens significantly cooled in 2019, and sales plunged from 1,225 in 2018 to 828 in 2019, a 32% drop. Total deal flow volume in terms of dollar amount fell 41%, from $11.6 billion to $6.8 billion over the period.
Summarizing New York City’s 2019 downtrend in the multifamily market is Greg Corbin, executive managing director at Besen Associates, said: “The slowdown in investment sales transactions has been a product of the perfect storm: rising interest rates, concern about new rent regulation laws and fear that the near decade-long bull market has reversed.”
A tailwind for the New York City multifamily market in 2020 could be record-low mortgage rates, but what could push the market lower is an outbreak of Covid-19. As of Friday, 22 confirmed cases were seen, with about 2,800 people under observation. A virus outbreak would cause spending patterns to shift among investors/consumers, sending the local economy into a tailspin.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/06/2020 – 22:45 - Media Vilifies Preppers And Those Stocking Up As "Selfish Hoarders" As Potential Mass Quarantine Looms
Media Vilifies Preppers And Those Stocking Up As “Selfish Hoarders” As Potential Mass Quarantine Looms
Authored by Daisy Luther via The Organic Prepper blog,
With the Covid19 virus popping up across the country, people who are preppers are adding a few last-minute things to their stockpiles. Those who aren’t preppers are starting from scratch to get what they think they might need to handle a potential quarantine at home.
While most of the folks on this website would read this and think, “Of course they are” there are a few who think, “What a bunch of selfish people, hoarding supplies instead of only taking a little and leaving the rest for other people.” Often the people with this mindset are those “other people” who failed to prepare and who are upset that they missed their window of opportunity to get the necessary supplies.
But the media and government certainly aren’t helping paint those getting prepared in a good light with headlines about “panic buying” and “hoarding.”
An article on USA Today starts out:
Keep calm and stop hoarding. The spread of coronavirus in the U.S. won’t wipe out our toilet paper supply. Or supplies of hand sanitizer, bottled water and ramen.
That is, unless the frenzied stampedes for hand sanitizer and bottled water continue at their current pace. (source)
The article goes on to use phrases like “impulsive buying binges,” “air of aggressive competition,” “stripping store shelves of toilet paper,” and “the crush of humanity” at Costco.
The entire article dismisses stocking up as ridiculous and even irresponsible, blaming shoppers for causing shortages.
Experts say not to worry and to stop “hoarding.”
The USA Today article blithely reports:
Supply chain experts say to stop worrying about hoarding basic necessities beyond having on hand the recommended 14-day emergency supply of food and necessities.
Perishable food such as fruits and vegetables are unlikely to be limited in the short term. Supplies of imported frozen meat and fish are more at risk but were already curbed by trade sanctions.
Packaged goods such as cereal and toothpaste and dry goods won’t be affected in the near term, either. For items that are now in shorter supply, such as hand sanitizer, plenty of substitutes exist such as soap. Some people are even making their own…
…Even with images of all those empty shelves flooding social media feeds, supply chain experts urged people to stop, well, freaking out.
“We don’t have a shortage of toilet paper in this country. We have plenty of toilet paper to go around,” said Per Hong, a senior partner in the strategic operations practice at Kearney, a global management consultancy. “Those supplies will be fully restocked and my ability to go to the store to get those supplies isn’t going to go away anytime soon.” (source)
I don’t know about you, but I certainly wouldn’t feel comfortable facing a possible lockdown like the one in China with only a 14 day supply of food and necessities. And if what’s happened in Italy is anything to go by, your ability to pop out to the store to get more toilet paper absolutely could go away sometime soon.
An article on Los Angeles News Today continues in the same vein with its own experts chiming in.
Los Angeles County health director Dr. Barbara Ferrer said residents should be prepared just as they should always be for a natural disaster or other emergency.
“That means having some water in your house and some food and your medications that last for a few days,” Ferrer said. “You don’t need to rush out and buy out weeks and weeks worth of supplies, but you (do) need to have what we always ask you to have — enough supplies in your house to get through a few days.” (source)
So according to them, you only need to be prepared for a few days. No biggie.
Stocking up is occurring around the world.
Wise people around the world are gathering up supplies. According to the Nielsen consumer market research agency, the spread of the coronavirus has folks everywhere “actively stockpiling emergency supplies.”
“They’re also starting to think beyond emergency items, such as basic foodstuffs, including canned goods, flour, sugar and bottled water,” according to Nielsen. “Concerns are having a ripple effect into non-food essentials as well. In the U.S., sales of supplements, fruit snacks and first aid kits, for example, are all on the rise.”
The agency noted “significant spikes” in hoarding of emergency supplies in China, the United States and Italy, “where consumers are rushing to build what are being labeled ‘pandemic pantries.”(source)
Of course, what they call hoarding, I’d call preparing for the worst.
Did you notice a word being repeatedly used?
The word “hoarding” is being repeatedly used throughout news reports. They’re already working to paint preppers as bad and selfish people. They’re already vilifying those who hurry out to fill any gaps in their supplies. They’re making it seem like a mental illness to get prepared for what could potentially be a long stretch of time at home with only the supplies you have on hand.
This is a frequent trick of propagandists everywhere. Repeat a word often enough and suddenly everyone begins using it. Everyone begins to believe that the people labeled with an ugly word are terrible, selfish, and threats to decency.
A friend of mine wrote about an article she had read:
There’s a single quote that sticks out to me:
“The government ended up subsidizing masks so that every family could have them after people decided to hoard them like they were bottled water in a storm.”
Do you see what happened there? Those who prepared ahead of time are being vilified. This theme is being repeated over and over again if you start reading what the experts are writing. History tells us that those who are prepared are either hailed the heroes (when they have enough for everyone) or the villains (when they have enough for themselves).
This is a recurring theme. Those who prepare are demonized while those who do not are portrayed as victims of the “hoarders.”
Keep listening because you’re going to hear words like “hoarding” and “selfish” a lot more often as this situation continues to evolve.
State governments and the CDC are at odds
State health officials in places like Hawaii and Minnesota have recommended that residents get prepared for what could be a bumpy ride. Residents of those states are paying attention and stocking up.
The CDC (irresponsibly) couldn’t disagree more. (You know, the same CDC that’s been sending out a faulty Covid19 test all this time.) They are literally telling people not to stock up.
CDC Director Robert Redfield on Thursday told a U.S. congressional hearing that there was no need for healthy Americans to stock up on any supplies.
“We should have one unified message,” said Robyn Gershon, a clinical professor of epidemiology at New York University. “When there’s an absence of a good, strong and reassuring official voice, people will get more upset and start doing this magical thinking.” (source)
There, there. Don’t worry. The government will save you. Go order a pizza and don’t worry your silly little head about some virus.
Many see preparation as selfishness.
I’ve gotten comments on my own website and also in the group that I run on Facebook that preparedness is a “selfish” endeavor. And it’s always in the comments that you find out how people really feel, often using MSM talking points as their guides.
There was this rather naive comment on a mainstream article.
The thing I have with INDIVIDUAL preppers is that why not leave it in the store? Why don’t people see the grocery store as a prepper’s storage unit?
Prepping is inherently selfish IMO. (source)
Someone who is no longer in my Facebook group told us.
You people are part of the problem. You go out and hoard things when it wouldn’t hurt you to leave some stuff on the shelf for other people. If there aren’t enough supplies for everyone, it is selfish for you to only think of your family. What about everyone else’s family? Oh right, you only care about yourself.
A commenter on my own website said:
What a bunch of selfish jerks you all are. You don’t need 10 packages of toilet paper at a time. What about the other people who can’t afford ten packs of toilet paper?
The author of an article about being in quarantine finds those stocking up to be selfish too, which is kind of mind-boggling when you not this author is in the position in which we all worry about finding ourselves.
I was sorely disappointed by the amount of items that were out of stock after Singaporeans rushed to buy a whole plethora of goods (including instant noodles and toilet paper) when DORSCON Orange happened.
Given such uncertain times, I can empathise with the panic. But I couldn’t help but feel that this hoarding mentality is really selfish.
Because this means that a good portion of people–those on their weekly grocery runs or others like myself looking to get groceries delivered as I am unable to leave the house–cannot get their hands on essentials. (source)
Watch closely. You will see the word “selfish” getting thrown around right up there with “hoarding.”
These people are wrong.
Currently, thousands of people in the United States are spending weeks at home under self-quarantine. I’ll bet if you asked them, there are probably all sorts of things they wish they had on hand right now, and this is even with the ability to order things that can be delivered to their doorsteps. What would happen if all of us within a region faced the type of lockdown happening in northern Italy where there are potential criminal penalties for being out unnecessarily? Wouldn’t you then wish you had made that last-minute run to the store?
Stocking up is the responsible thing to do. It means that your family will not be dependent on government services. It means that nobody has to run out in the middle of a pandemic because there’s not any Tylenol and somebody has a fever. It means you don’t have to risk infection in order to have food for your children.
Stocking up to care for yourself means that you won’t be a drain on those limited government resources being dispensed and there will be more for people who did not prepare. It means you don’t need to order deliveries, causing some other person to risk their own health bringing supplies to you after things get bad.
Stocking up is practical. Whether you’ve done it over a period of years, as most of us have, or whether you’re topping up now (which I’m doing since I’ve been traveling for quite some time and I want to make sure my daughter’s place is well-supplied), taking the steps you need to be prepared is the height of personal responsibility.
There’s one really good mainstream article on Scientific American that talks about the wisdom of stocking up. Aside from that, the mainstream is studded with the usual mockery toward the self-reliant.
Panic buying vs. Prepping
Some folks have noted that what is going on right now as shelves get emptied across the country is not prepping – it’s panic buying. While there’s a little bit of truth to that, I’d still rather see people in the stores getting what they need than waiting for a handout.
Over the past couple of weeks, I’ve hit the stores myself to replenish a stockpile that my youngest daughter has been using. I’m certainly not panicking but I’d be a fool not to fill in some gaps.
Whether you’ve had your supplies sitting there for a year or you just picked them up over the previous week, I commend you for making the effort to get prepared for what could possibly be a lengthy period of quarantine.
Is it better to do this far in advance? Sure. Is it better to do this at the last minute than not at all? Also, sure. For those who have waited longer than might be ideal, check out this guide for panic preppers and this guide that offers substitutes when the merchandise at the store is picked over.
The media will try to make us look bad…again.
Regardless of how the Covid-19 outbreak plays out in the United States, rest assured that those who prepared will be painted with a dark brush by the media. This is one of those situations in which OpSec is of primary importance. You don’t want your unprepared neighbor to know you’re doing just fine with your canned goods and dried fruit after they failed to go to the store.
Our first responsibility is always, without fail, to our own families.
Don’t let the mainstream media try and tell you otherwise.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/06/2020 – 22:25 - "It's Utter Mayhem" – US Mortgage Rates Plunge To Record Low
“It’s Utter Mayhem” – US Mortgage Rates Plunge To Record Low
Rates for 30-year US mortgages plunged to a record low on Thursday, forced lower by Covid-19 fears as the US economy could be nearing recession as investors continued to make a mad dash into treasuries.
The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 3.29%, down from 3.45% last week and the lowest in nearly five decades, Freddie Mac said in a statement Thursday. The last time rates were this low, it was November 2012 at 3.31%.
A quick drop in mortgage rates could boost home sales, but a fast-spreading virus that is starting to take a toll on West Coast cities could prove otherwise. From business shutdowns to quarantines to a collapse in air travel, the economy is rapidly slowing as people load up on food and masks to weather a possible pandemic.
Matthew Pointon, a US property economist at Capital Economics Ltd., told Bloomberg that mortgage rates would probably extend declines before hitting a floor.
We noted on Wednesday that plunging rates has led to a massive refinance boom.
Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s senior vice president and chief economist, said:
“The 30-year fixed rate mortgage dropped to its lowest level in more than seven years last week, amidst increasing concerns regarding the economic impact from the spread of the coronavirus, as well as the tremendous financial market volatility. Given the further drop in Treasury rates this week, we expect refinance activity will increase even more until fears subside and rates stabilize.”
Quicken Loans said they saw “record-setting” volume on Monday and Tuesday as rates fell. CEO Jay Farner said:
“The way that we leverage technology to communicate with our clients, to make it easy for them to make a mortgage application, for our underwriters, we can scale very quickly, which helps us when we see increased volume like this.”
Lewis Sogge, a senior loan officer at Freedom Mortgage, said the decline in rates is fueling an epic refinancing boom. Sogge said, “mortgage rates are lower than I thought we’d ever seen. Everyone is working overtime to handle the new loan supply. Its utter mayhem.”
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/06/2020 – 22:05 - The Potential Economic And Societal Impacts Of Covid-19
The Potential Economic And Societal Impacts Of Covid-19
Authored by Samathna Biggers via BackDoorSurvival.com,
There are many different ways that COVID-19 is going to affect the world. To quote the CDC “The disruption of daily life might be severe.” They are talking about the USA but this applies to the world as well. They should know because they totally failed the public on many levels at this point and increased the threat and danger to every person residing in the USA.
In this article, I am going to concentrate on some of the things that at this point are either starting to occur or very likely to occur over the next few months.
Before I address supply chain disruptions and other societal impacts, I want to address how the government and the Center For Disease Control have totally failed and endangered the medical professionals and law enforcement officers of the United States.
They failed in the following ways:
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Did not provide timely and accurate information to police, medics, doctors, nurses, and other professionals. They did not tell these fine folks how contagious COVID-19 actually is. They never expressed that this disease is aerosolized.
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Provided no way for medical professionals to test. The long delay in testing supplies combined with delivering dirty and unusable test kits has made a bad situation much worse than it had to be.
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The CDC has stopped reporting testing after complaints about how few they were doing. This is irresponsible and not how an agency that is supposed to be working in the best interest of the health of America should act.
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Refusing to acknowledge that the incubation period of COVID-19 is likely longer than 14 days. The result is an inadequate quarantine period.
Coronavirus tests have been expensive for some.
The fees for the coronavirus test are hard for many to cover. Insurance does not cover all of the fees but there are some states such as NY attempting to require insurance agencies to waive the cost. An unaffordable cost discourages people that suspect they may have the virus from coming forward, thus further endangering the health of the public. In an article from The Miami Herald a man claimed that he received a bill for $3,270 for a test and was responsible for $1400 of that after his insurance. The man had recently returned from China and arrived in Miami.
This is shameful.
The people that work hard to provide medical and emergency services for us are being let down and we will all pay for this in the future. What happens when the people trained to take care of us when we are sick and keep communities safe cannot because they are sick too?
The results of these decisions are highlighted in the stories and videos below.
12 of the 30 firefighters and police officers that responded to the COVID-19 outbreak at the LifeCare Nursing Home in Kirkland, Washington are now exhibiting flu-like symptoms at the time of this writing. I really wish these fine folks had been informed and provided with some gear to protect themselves. This is tragic.
5 Dallas police officers were sent home after it was discovered they were potentially exposed to COVID-19 due to interaction during the arrest and processing of a man.
Even if you ignore the rest of my article, I urge you to at least watch the video below that highlights the struggle of doctors and how they cannot get what they need to test patients.
Clothing
Almost all clothing was made in China, Vietnam, and Cambodia. Even the fancy name brand designer labels that cost a fortune per piece take advantage of the low labor costs in these countries to produce their designer duds.
All those inexpensive cotton socks, underwear, and packs of t-shirts that we are used to are not going to be on the shelves. Some are still made in America but it will take quite some time to create the infrastructure necessary to meet increased domestic demand.
Food
Luckily, America is a country that produces more food than it consumes. There will be food as long as there are people to work on the farms. However, there are imported food items that you and your family may like a lot that could become either impossible to get or more expensive due to the collapse of the global shipping industry and how hard it is to procure the ingredients.
Other countries that rely on the United States for food on some level will suffer a lot as crops and foods are not exported but consumed domestically or only exported to countries that are close enough to make it economically feasible.
Pharmaceutical Drugs
We rely on China for most antibiotics. India produces a lot of final product medications but many of the active ingredients are produced in China. There are already some medications that are starting to be harder to find. While some may rest a bit easier when reassured by Indian drug manufacturers that they have an 8 week supply on hand, that is not a big enough cushion to make me think this is not a serious problem.
Many people renewed their prescriptions sooner rather than later when items started appearing in the news that indicated that meds may be harder to get or that they may need to stay at home for many weeks. This led to supplies becoming more depleted at the beginning of the situation. Those that did not renew and get their meds, will be the first to suffer the consequences of doing without. Even so, everyone that is on meds will eventually feel the impact.
Of course, there are also those that are on prescription medications that are only allowed a 30 day supply at a time. This is how it works with some drugs that are prescribed for mental health or pain. You also have to go to an actual pharmacy to get these meds. They won’t ship you major painkillers or drugs like Adderall or Ritalin for ADHD.
Some medications you cannot quit suddenly without some potentially serious or fatal consequences. Consider how some people that rely on mental health medications are going to do if they suddenly have to quit. In the USA we have a pretty significant population on psychiatric medications.
I wrote an article quite a while back on what might happen “When The Meds Run Out.”
Medical Supplies
From face masks to gloves to major medical equipment, China is the main manufacturer. Considering that we are dealing with an epidemic or pandemic depending on what you believe, now is a heck of a time to be facing shortages of medical supplies.
Illicit Drug Supply Chain
A lot of illegal drugs are smuggled in shipping containers that have other goods in them. Who knows how many days worth of supply is in the USA but regardless, at some point that amount is going to dwindle which will at first lead to higher prices for users. Some areas may lack any as dealers divert supplies to those that can pay more. At some point, there just may simply not be any of certain drugs across a big are.
The increased cost alone will lead to more stealing and other crimes committed out of desperation to get the substance the user relies on. Some drugs incapacitate those in withdrawal while others don’t so much thus you have people that are desperate and capable of some pretty awful things.
Appliances
Some of the larger appliances are still made domestically but that doesn’t mean that they don’t rely on components manufactured in foreign countries. Usually, this country is China. Almost all small appliances are made in China from toasters ovens to coffee pots and blenders. Any device, even if you buy a better than average brand, has a working life.
At some point, what appliances and parts that are already in the country or at least in a nearby one, will start to dwindle. It is hard to say when this will happen because there are many factors at play. Maybe we have enough to get by until manufacturing starts up in US or else ware but I kind of doubt it.
When your coffee pot breaks if may be a little harder to find a replacement that is anywhere near the price point you are used to paying. Even the small appliances that were considered cheaply made, will be resold for a much higher cost to those that want the convenience that they bring to their lives.
Tools
A lot of the power and hand tools we use every day are made in China or Japan. As a farmer and someone that built their house with their husband, I put a lot of value in tools. During hard times a lot of us may have to do more tasks on our own. Hopefully, our tools hold out for a while.
There are some good hand tools made in the USA but like so many things, the supply is far lower than the demand.
Auto and Machine Parts
A lot of auto manufacturers have decreased or stopped production because they cannot get the materials and components they need to produce vehicles or the parts needed to repair existing ones. How many of us have bought an aftermarket part for a car or small machine? Almost all the aftermarket generic parts that are affordable are made in China.
Just about everything that the average person uses to maintain and run their household.
I could list many more things that are in your home that may be harder to get. Sheets for your bed, towels, and blankets are just a few of the other items that are often made in China or India. Although India is not reporting a ton of cases yet, I suspect that the numbers are much greater and considering the population density, the potential for a major outbreak is extraordinary.
More expensive goods due to a lack of low labor costs. Manufacturing will occur closer to home.
We are used to being able to get a lot things at a low cost. This is not going to be as common. People will not work and are not able to work for the wages that they will in China, Vietnam, or Cambodia.
It will take a long time to get any production going domestically or in an alternative foreign location. There are many components that go into even basic electronics and appliances. Metals, small parts, etc, are something we used to take for granted as always being there.
Price gouging is already happening. Demand is much higher for some items like N-95 masks. Price gouging and people reselling items on eBay for extremely high prices is something we are likely to see more and more of.
Resentment and blame towards fellow consumers
There are already people that are blaming fellow shoppers for them not being able to get items that they want. One person was angry because they could not find something for their baby and blamed people for stocking up. They called them selfish. Another man couldn’t put in his weekly order for 2 loaves of bread and was livid about it.
When other more major shortages start to be apparent, the blaming will get worse, with many people in denial that the real cause is the lack of manufacturing and shipping.
Politicization and the blame game is already happening and will continue to escalate.
It really annoys me when important issues that affect us all get politicized. People from all across the political spectrum are already blaming this political party or this person. I am critical of the CDC but that is an agency that is supposed to work for all of us regardless of political leanings. I will not get caught up in the political blame game because it does nothing to help us get through this horrible virus that as all over the world. As far as I am concerned governments need to put aside some of the party politics and concentrate on the health crisis at hand.
Racism and xenophobia will surface more often towards some groups.
This is already happening all over the world. Those that kept their feelings to themselves are feeling that now is the time to express them. There are also some that have switched to this way of thinking. While checking in on a new friend in Italy I met in a preparedness group on Facebook, he told me of a man verbally abusing a Chinese lady in the street by loudly yelling that “All the s*** eaters need to go back home”. This was more than a week ago and at the very beginning of the quarantines in Italy and occurred in a town that was not yet under mandatory quarantine.
It will be harder to shelter children from the woes of the world.
Kids are going to ask a lot of questions. While causing them to panic and freak out is not the answer, it is going to be a lot harder to hide what is going on over a period of time. Some parents have decided to approach it from encouraging more hand washing and telling children and teens to avoid people that are coughing or showing signs of illness. I think that a degree of honesty is best myself but I realize that how you raise your child is something that is ultimately a personal decision.
There may be a time when kids and teens ask some other really tough questions that you will need to address and it will be practically impossible to shield them from. What if something awful like a friend or family member gets sick, is hospitalized, or even dies? Kids may also have some questions about the xenophobia and racism that could pop up.
Events that involve large groups will be rarer and many that are planned will be canceled.
Sometimes I am sitting here typing and an ad will come on Pandora from an artist telling me to catch them on tour. Now when I hear that I think about how many of those big concerts and sporting events are going to be canceled. In some cases when they are not canceled, the musicians or players will either be greeted by a nearly empty or empty venue. In Italy, soccer teams are playing without the fans due to the possibility of spread.
Children and teens that are used to the team spirit and camaraderie that comes from participating in organized sports may have to face losing that part of their life.
The travel industry will crash
Travel agents and online booking sites are facing record-breaking numbers of cancellations. This means at least a partial refund of fees that were already paid.
Anyone that works at hotels, for airlines or any industry that caters to travelers is going to be affected. The ripple effect is going to be very noticeable. I would not be surprised to see some hotels and motels shut down and never open again. Bankruptcies in the travel industry are very likely to accelerate greatly over the next year.
The cruise ship industry, in particular, is being hit hard and with good reason considering the disaster of the Diamond Princess and other cruise ships.
People will become more isolated. Social distancing will be the rule for many.
Doing what you can to distance yourself from others is one of the things that you have some control over. While staying at home is not an option for many due to their jobs or school, avoiding other social situations, shopping online, or visiting stores at very low volume times are all possible. Many people have been doing this for quite some time.
Restaurants, coffee shops, and bars are going to face some tough times.
Some of the first social distancing will be people avoiding restaurants and drinking establishments. This is one of the easiest things for people to do to reduce exposure to others. At the moment, staying at home and popping a frozen pizza in the oven makes sense to some. Going out and socializing is something people like to do but you can have a beer at home for less money and avoid exposure. There are a lot of people employed in the restaurant and bar industry. Many of these hard-working people rely on tipping that is just not going to be there.
The lack of cargo to ship will have a significant effect on the shipping and transport industries.
This is another industry that employs a lot of people. From the local UPS and FedEx drivers to the port and cargo ship workers. While at the time a lot of people are utilizing mail order, as time goes on and there are less goods to ship, the volume will drop. Volume has already dropped dramatically at ports on the western and eastern seaboards of the United States. Where shipping containers were once stacked as high as buildings, there is empty space and nothing coming in.
This video shows what some of the ports look like at this time. It was taken by a lady that drives container trucks to and from the port.
Truck drivers that service ports, as well as those responsible for moving cargo across the country, will likely feel the effects of fewer goods to distribute.
Lack of demand for oil will cause the barrel price to crash.
The oil markets are already experiencing the effects of less demand. When this continues, the price will drop a lot. Of course, if some oil production shuts down as a result, the price may go back up to some degree. Regardless there are going to be some dips and volatility in the oil market.
Families will either learn to get along or be miserable. Some will simply fall apart because they cannot cope with all that time together.
There will be more homeschooled children and teens in the future.
Some school districts are already creating plans for delivering learning materials online. Other people are thinking about homeschooling as an option. I was homeschooled from 7th-12th grade. It was the best option for me. Although I was doing very well in school, it was boring and the social aspects were not something I enjoyed. I had to spend 90 minutes of my life on a bus because the nearest junior high was 10 miles away and that took 45 minutes each way.
While parents may have to go to work, I do have to say that some responsible teens may be able to handle staying at home and completing their studies even if you are not there. I was pretty much self-taught through junior high through graduation.
If you find yourself working from home and feel that you should eliminate the risk of exposure via schools, then homeschooling is something to consider. Many kids find that they enjoy it and have more time to do other things like learn skills or even help out around the house. A lot of time is wasted within the public school system.
Conclusion
Times are not going to be easy. We are going to be facing some major disruptions to our way of life in the future. Let’s hope that a cure and better treatment becomes available soon. Even if things dramatically improve, the global supply chain is going to be forever changed.
I wish the best for you and your family during this trying time.
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To keep up to date on coronavirus I encourage you to subscribe to the Peak Prosperity Youtube Channel.
Chris does a fantastic job covering the latest news that you should know about COVID-19. He has been producing a daily video covering COVID-19 since the epidemic started.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/06/2020 – 21:45 -
- Costco Runs Out Of Toilet Paper (Won't Have More For Centuries)
Costco Runs Out Of Toilet Paper (Won’t Have More For Centuries)
Last week we highlighted how Americans across the country have begun to panic, heading to their local Costco and other big-box stores in a mad dash to hoard supplies as coronavirus descends on the country.
“It’s been nuts,” said Costco CFO Richard Galanti on a Thursday earnings call with investors.
And now, a photo from an unidentified Costco reveals just how dire the problem is…
That’s quite a serious out of stock at Costco…. pic.twitter.com/6kh2q5b8ch
— Matthew Boyle (@bizboyle) March 5, 2020
On a more serious note, big-box stores have been raking it in of late – with Costco reporting sales up 12% y/y, saying they had “benefited from an uptick in consumer demand in the fourth week of the reporting period” when coronavirus fears swept the country.
“We attribute this to concerns over the coronavirus,” said the company.
Stock prices for Walmart and Target have also benefited from the spread of the deadly virus, as people preparing for a quarantine situation load up shopping carts with bottled water, canned soup, instant mac and cheese and everything else that they could possibly need to wait out the virus. But the panic-buying has been leading to shortages and leaving people on edge. –WaPo
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And on Thursday morning, the San Bernardino County Sheriff’s Department showed up at the Chino, California Hills Costco after receiving reports that customers had become aggressive after learning that they were out of water, toilet paper and paper towels.
To try and manage the situation, some locations have been limiting sales of essential items:
The panic is starting– local Costco trying to limit fear-fed buying. pic.twitter.com/5aylL8u1c1
— Bruce Kamich, CMT (@BruceKamich) March 4, 2020
We warned you several years ago that Venezuela was coming to America. Who knew it would be caused by a virus.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/06/2020 – 21:35 - Obama-Era Inspector General Indicted On 16 Counts Of Theft And Fraud
Obama-Era Inspector General Indicted On 16 Counts Of Theft And Fraud
The Department of Justice (DOJ) announced on Friday that the Obama administration’s Acting Homeland Security Inspector General and his former subordinate were indicted on 16 counts of theft and fraud.
The charges against 59-year-old Charles K. Edwards and his underling Murali Yamazula Venkata, 54, include theft of government property, wire fraud, aggravated identity theft, and conspiracy to defraud the United States. Venkata is also charged with destruction of records.
According to the allegations in the indictment, from October 2014 to April 2017, Edwards, Venkata, and others executed a scheme to defraud the U.S. government by stealing confidential and proprietary software from DHS Office of Inspector General (OIG), along with sensitive government databases containing personal identifying information (PII) of DHS and USPS employees, so that Edwards’s company, Delta Business Solutions, could later sell an enhanced version of DHS-OIG’s software to the Office of Inspector General for the U.S. Department of Agriculture at a profit. Although Edwards had left DHS-OIG in December 2013, he continued to leverage his relationship with Venkata and other DHS-OIG employees to steal the software and the sensitive government databases. -DOJ
Venkata and others are also accused of reconfiguring Edwards’ laptop so that he could upload the stolen software and databases, and helped troubleshoot whenever Edwards needed. He even built a test server at his house with the stolen software and databases.
Edwards is also accused of employing Indian software developers for the purpose of developing his ripoff of DHS’s software.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/06/2020 – 21:25 - "Someone Big Was Utterly Blown The F**k Out": Here's The Reason Behind Today's Unprecedented VIX Move
“Someone Big Was Utterly Blown The F**k Out”: Here’s The Reason Behind Today’s Unprecedented VIX Move
There was a bizarre moment this afternoon, when in the 40 minutes heading into the final hour of trading, the VIX kept rising and rising, preventing the S&P from doing its sworn duty of spiking higher into the weekend. And then, just after 310pm ET (or 1210 PT), the VIX collapsed, plunging by as much as 14 vols from 54.39 – the highest print since Lehman – to 40.84, the low for the day, and unleashing another unprecedented stock buying cascade, which almost sent the Dow green.
What happened?
As the following chat session between three individuals, which includes a former CME index option trader (X), all of whom wish to remain anonymous lays out, what happened is that the VIX ramped as a major Chicago market maker was caught in the infamous gamma short squeeze, which forced them to keep buying the VIX as the VIX soared, in the process ending the VIX even higher, only to get margin called out of their position by their clearing firm, puking their entire position while liquidating anything they could, and unleashing the VIX selling avalanche and the 700 Dow point rally.
Regular readers will recognize this pattern: it is what happened, only not with the VIX by ES, back in February 2017, when the Catalyst Hedged Futures Strategy Fund pushed the entire market higher when it, itself, was caught in a similar gamma trap (and which this January was finally busted for fraud).
Below the the full chat laying out what happened:
X: Someone got carried out of the pit in spx options 15 minutes ago
X: Utterly blown the fuck out
X: Their clearing firm literally liquidated some big market maker in Chicago hahahaha
X: Go to Ceres today
Y: Omfg
X: Someone big literally doesn’t exist anymore
X: WE’RE RUINED MORTIMER
X: It caused a huge dislocation in the vix
X: You could see them blow out 😂
X: God i feel so happy now
X: (Ssssiiiippp)
Z: Someone hacked into this Boise publication and is posting redpills on their Twitter
Z: [link to Boise Weekly hacked twitter account]
Z: Is one of those degenerate leftist weekly publications so common in urban areas
X: Lol nice
Z: What’s going on with the spx?
X: Bro
X: What a lollercoaster
X: Im in cloud 9 right now
X: My old he lush trading firm blew out vs vix 32
X: Now someone else the same size did it vs 48 haha
X: Old hellish*
X: Consolidated trading blew out vs vix 32 last week
X: Verifiable true
Z: Do you know the other firm?
X: I wanna say they were the 4th largest market maker in chicago
X: Asking my friend. Trying to find out
[pictures of VIX vs /ES[H2O] on TOS]
X: That dramatic rise in the vix is inconsistent with the speed and depth of the fall in sp500
X: Someone literally got liquidated around 3 eastern
X: [Z] tell them about consolidated trading
X: “Consolidated Trading was well known across Chicago as degenerate risk takers who would always maintain a short vol/gamma position regardless of market conditions. Finally bit them in the ass last week and they blew out even after the market gave them tons of opportunity to get flat or long vs vix 23”
X: [Screenshot of another chat he’s in]:
Q: Vix 52
Q: 14 day vol is 60 lol
Q: Bro
Q: Someone big in Chicago just got carried out of the pit
Q: Their clearing firm mega puking them out CAUSED A SEVEN POINT POP IN THE VIX
Q: Reversed in minutes
Q: MORTIMER WE’RE RUINED lmfao]
And that’s what’s behind 700 point ramp today, confirming that the only movie one needs to watch to understand how the market really works is Trading Places.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/06/2020 – 21:23 - 2 Individuals At AIPAC Conference With Pence, Pompeo, McConnell & Others Test Positive For Covid-19
2 Individuals At AIPAC Conference With Pence, Pompeo, McConnell & Others Test Positive For Covid-19
Tehran is going to love this…
As the novel coronavirus spreads through Westchester County’s Jewish community following an outbreak in New Rochelle, it’s perhaps unsurprising that several individuals who attended the 2020 AIPAC conference, which was held in Washington DC earlier this week, have tested positive for the virus.
The incident is rapidly becoming a lesson in just how difficult it is to keep VIPs – including even senior leaders in our government – away from the virus. In a statement released Friday evening, the organizers of the conference confirmed that two attendees had tested positive at an event where Vice President Mike Pence was a keynote speaker, and where several other senior administration officials were present.
Other high-ranking Republicans in attendance included Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Senator and former Trump rival Ted Cruz and Rep. Liz Cheney, the daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney.
Read the full statement below:
Holy moly guacamole 🥑 – AIPAC confirms that two conference attendees have now tested positive for coronavirus. conf size? 18,000 attendees, including 2/3rds of Congress. this week, thousands of conference goers visited Capitol Hill offices. Will MoC’s test positive? #COVID19 https://t.co/5VhjyeoFxI
— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) March 6, 2020
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The identities of the infected individuals who attended the conference were not released, as per a new policy governing the identities of those who have been infected.
The organization said it notified attendees to consult the CDC’s guidelines for those who may have come into contact with the virus. The guidelines advice individuals to avoid close contact with others, and try to isolate while watching for any symptoms. Should symptoms emerge, individuals are advised to call their doctors and report the situation.
Though many have complained that they haven’t been able to access tests despite contacting their doctor because, as the Atlantic revealed earlier, fewer than 2,000 tests have been administered in the US so far due to a dire shortage that administration officials have attempted to underplay.
The situation in Iran, where a senior adviser to the Ayatollah was infected, a former ambassador to Syria died, and nearly 2 dozen lawmakers have been infected, offered a lesson in the risks that the virus – which of course can’t be stopped or stunted by traditional weaponry – presents.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/06/2020 – 21:05 - Congress Rips Boeing's "Culture Of Concealment" & FAA's 'Jeopardizing' Public In Scathing 737 MAX Report
Congress Rips Boeing’s “Culture Of Concealment” & FAA’s ‘Jeopardizing’ Public In Scathing 737 MAX Report
In a sense finally making the long developing scandal official in terms of where blame lies and who covered it up, Congress has blasted Boeing’s “culture of concealment” which recklessly pursued cost-cutting over safety, made worse by the Federal Aviation Administration’s woeful lack of oversight, leading to twin deadly crashes of Boeing’s 737 MAX jets and 346 lives lost in late 2018 and March 2019. The report cites “efforts to obfuscate information” involving an automated system that “violated Boeing’s own internal design guidelines.”
Preliminary findings issued by Democrats on the House Transportation Committee Friday afternoon found Boeing executives and FAA regulators ignored the fatal software glitch which was simply shipped by default with all new 737 MAX planes instead of being repaired.
Boeing “failed in its duty to identify key safety problems and to ensure they were adequately addressed during the certification process,” the House committee found.
Source: Getty Images/CBS “Friday’s report details Boeing’s determination at various levels — years before the MAX won approval by the Federal Aviation Administration — to avoid putting any pilots through costly ground-simulator training,” the WSJ writes. And further summarizes, “That single-minded goal was evident across Boeing’s engineering, marketing and management ranks, according to the report, and resulted in various efforts to mislead or withhold information from FAA officials during the lengthy certification process.”
The Congressional report, which comes as the result of a series of five public hearings into the MAX’s design and production after it was ground world-wide last March, also excoriated the FAA for its “grossly insufficient” review of the plane which ultimately “jeopardized the safety of the flying public” with its “inherent conflicts of interest” — even though it’s supposed to be the final impartial safety watchdog.
Here are key damning conclusions from the report per The Seattle Times:
- Extensive efforts at Boeing to cut costs, maintain the MAX program schedule, and not slow down the MAX production line undermined the safety of the jet.
- Faulty assumptions led Boeing to fail to classify new flight control software on the MAX called the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System, or MCAS, as a safety-critical technology that demanded more scrutiny.
- In order to avoid greater FAA scrutiny and increased pilot training requirements, Boeing practiced a “Culture of Concealment” that withheld crucial information from the FAA, its airline customers, and pilots.
- Inherent conflicts of interest among authorized representatives of the FAA, who are Boeing employees authorized to perform certification work on behalf of the FAA, ”jeopardized the safety of the flying public.”
- Boeing’s influence over the FAA’s oversight resulted in FAA management rejecting safety concerns raised by the agency’s own technical experts at the behest of Boeing.
After these and other scathing critiques in the Congressional findings, the FAA instead of a full-frontal acknowledgement to the public of its role leading up to disasters involving hundreds of deaths and grieving relatives, merely lamely stated that “we are a learning agency and welcome the scrutiny.”
Then president and chief executive officer of The Boeing Company at a Congressional hearing last year, via EPA/The Guardian. “The lessons learned from the investigations into the tragic accidents of Lion Air Flight 610 and Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 will be a springboard to an even greater level of safety,” the FAA statement added.
However, we doubt that few among the traveling public will find such an ‘assurance’ believable or comforting, also considering the potential expanding nature of the safety issues and cover-up, as the WSJ notes additionally: “More broadly, the reports also details examples of FAA managers overruling safety concerns of their own technical experts related to another Boeing airliner, the Boeing 787.”
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/06/2020 – 20:45 - 15th American Dies From Coronavirus In Washington, First Case Confirmed In Hawaii: Live Updates
15th American Dies From Coronavirus In Washington, First Case Confirmed In Hawaii: Live Updates
Summary:
- 15th US death reported in WA
- First case confirmed in Hawaii
- CDC has tested fewer than 2,000 Americans, Atlantic reports
- 15 more patients from Kirkland nursing home hospitalized
- 2nd LAX screener tests positive
- LA County confirms another 2 cases, bringing total to 13
- Germany reports 90 new cases to 534
- Saudi Arabia suspends sports events starting Saturday
- U. of Washington will move all classes online for rest of semester
- McDonald’s cancels franchisee convention
- Iraqi officials report third death
- LatAm airline employee confirmed as Peru’s first coronavirus case
- Houston area confirms 6th case
- Italy reports another 678 cases
- Gap closes NYC office
- New York cases climb to 33
- Baggage handler at Heathrow tests positive
- Madrid closes old folks homes
- 5 schools close in PA.
- Trump visit to CDC is back on
- WHO: “false hope” that virus will disappear when summer arrives
- WHO: We don’t know mortality rate
- Kudlow: “Buy stocks”
- 2nd death in UK, cases hit 163; France reports 2 new deaths bringing total to 9
- French total cases hits 577
- Egypt reports 12 cases aboard cruise ship on the Nile
- 2,733 asked to voluntarily quarantine in NYC
- Trump scraps trip to CDC
- Switzerland, the Netherlands report 1st deaths
- Slovakia only country in Europe without coronavirus
- Russia accuses Italy of spreading virus
- Singapore reports 13 new cases, largest one-day jump since outbreak began
- US case total: 234
- South Korea, Japan feud over virus
- Microsoft, Adidas, Lockheed say at least 1 employee has contracted virus
- China claims it can have vaccine ready by April
- Pompeo says China withheld information, leaving US “behind the curve”
* * *
Update (2040ET): After several close calls, Hawaii Gov. David Ige has just confirmed the first case of coronavirus in Hawaii.
After 21 people tested positive for Covid-19 on the ‘Grand Princess’, the cruise ship drifting off the coast of San Francisco, public health officials in Hawaii tested a passenger who had traveled on the ship. According to local TV station KITV, the ship made port calls in Nawiliwili on Feb. 26, Honolulu on Feb. 27, Lahaina on Feb. 28 and Hilo on Feb 29.
The Hawaiian patient, though not technically confirmed by the CDC yet, appears to be the 22nd case associated with the ship revealed on Friday. The case brings the total number in the US to 321.
* * *
Update (1550ET): LA County has confirmed another 2 cases bringing total to 13 case.
- LOS ANGELES COUNTY: TOTAL NUMBER OF CORONAVIRUS CASES NOW AT 13
#BREAKING 2 additional cases of coronavirus confirmed in LA County, public health officials say https://t.co/FfNhrGOmBm
— ABC7 Eyewitness News (@ABC7) March 6, 2020
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One of the new cases is a part of a group who recently traveled to Northern Italy, the other was working as a screener at LAX, marking the second LAX screener to catch the virus.
Two new confirmed cases of #COVID19 in LA County. One was part of a group of travelers who were in Northern Italy. The other is a person who was working as a screener at the LAX Quarantine Station.
Total confirmed coronavirus cases in LA County= 13 https://t.co/NxB05jaAtp
— Los Angeles County (@CountyofLA) March 6, 2020
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Since the first screener tested positive on Tuesday, LAX and DHS have been testing all the screeners who work at the airport, according to the LA Times.
In a statement, the Department of Homeland Security described the worker as a medical screener who “wore all the correct protective equipment and took necessary protections on the job.”
“As soon as the individual began to feel sick, they self-quarantined, saw a physician, and reported to the appropriate authorities and officials,” a DHS spokesperson said in the statement.
As we noted earlier, US trade officials granted tariff waivers for a spate of products ranging from medical masks to isolation gowns that will be needed to combat the virus, preferably at affordable prices. The decision by the office of the US trade representative to ease tariffs on such key medical supplies was communicated to companies that had made the request for an exclusion the day before.
The products in question, which also include shoe covers, surgical drapes, and specimen containers, were part of $120 billion worth of Chinese goods that were subject to 15% tariffs between September and mid February, when the levies dropped to 7.5% under the terms of a truce deal reached between Washington and Beijing in January, per the FT.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has announced suspending public attendance at all sports events starting Saturday.
* * *
Update (1510ET): Washington State has reported the country’s 15th coronavirus death. In other news, Apple has reportedly asked the 12,000 employees at is Cupertino HQ to work from home amid the outbreak.
Outside the US, Colombia has just confirmed its first case of the virus, breaking the news less than an hour after the first case was confirmed in Peru.
* * *
Update (1500ET): MasterCard has confirmed that an employee in its Sao Paolo office has tested positive.
* * *
Update (1445ET): As American officials tout their efforts to secure 1 million masks by the end of the day, a task that we had previously reported they were falling far behind on, the Atlantic is reporting that only 1,895 Americans have been tested so far. Roughly 10% of those have tested positive.
Here’s more from the Atlantic, which billed the lack of tests as the biggest piece of evidence that the Trump Administration is botching the effort.
“The CDC got this right with H1N1 and Zika, and produced huge quantities of test kits that went around the country,” Thomas Frieden, the director of the CDC from 2009 to 2017, told us. “I don’t know what went wrong this time.”
Through interviews with dozens of public-health officials and a survey of local data from across the country, The Atlantic could only verify that 1,895 people have been tested for the coronavirus in the United States, about 10 percent of whom have tested positive. And while the American capacity to test for the coronavirus has ramped up significantly over the past few days, local officials can still test only several thousand people a day, not the tens or hundreds of thousands indicated by the White House’s promises.
Through interviews with dozens of public-health officials and a survey of local data from across the country, The Atlantic could only verify that 1,895 people have been tested for the coronavirus in the United States, about 10 percent of whom have tested positive. And while the American capacity to test for the coronavirus has ramped up significantly over the past few days, local officials can still test only several thousand people a day, not the tens or hundreds of thousands indicated by the White House’s promises.
To arrive at our estimate, we contacted the public-health departments of all 50 states and the District of Columbia. We gathered data on websites, and we corresponded with dozens of state officials. All 50 states and D.C. have made some information available, though the quality and timeliness of the data varied widely. Some states have only committed to releasing their numbers once or three times a week. Most are focused on the number of confirmed cases; only a few have publicized the number of people they are capable of testing.
This follows a decision by the CDC to stop publishing data about the number of tests administered, a decision that has angered many experts. It’s let to a patchwork of state reports making data that much more difficult to gather. While South Korea tested more than 10,000 people a day from the beginning of the outbreak, across the US, officials can only administer a few hundreds tests a day.
Meanwhile, up in Washington State, health officials in King County, the epicenter of the outbreak, revealed that another 15 patients from a the nursing home in Kirkland have been sent to a hospital. Every patient and staffer at the facility is in the process of being tested. At least eight of the 14 deaths in the US have been Kirkland residents, the NYT reported in a story about the situation at the nursing home.
A team of 30 federal officials will arrive on Saturday to help with the situation at the home, state officials said.
Meanwhile, Iraqi officials reported the third death in the country in the region of Karbala, along with eight new cases.
* * *
Update (1425ET): McDonald’s has cancelled its annual franchisees convention.
* * *
Update (1330ET): ABC13 reports that a sixth pending case of the virus has been confirmed in the Houston area, and the second in the City of Houston.
The Houston case is a woman in her 60s who was part of a group of travelers who visited Egypt.
The five previous patients were being treated for the virus after traveling to Egypt as a group last month. Two of the patients were people in northwest Harris County, while two men were considered presumptive cases, one in Harris and one in Houston.
This woman is now Houston’s second case.
Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo has said the county had treated everyone who participated in the trip as a ‘presumptive’ positive, which turned out to be a smart move.
Also: Health officials in Peru and LatAm Airlines have confirmed that the airline employee has been confirmed as Peru’s case of the virus.
“This new case in Houston is not unexpected because it’s among the same group of international travelers associated with other cases in the Houston area,” said Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner. “There remains no evidence of community spread, no need to alter our normal activity in Houston and certainly no reason to let fear grip our lives.”
In other news, France’s case count has climbed to 613, of those 39 are in intensive care. The death toll stands at 9.
* * *
Update (1310ET): Five schools in the Central Bucks School District, where five schools have closed for deep cleaning over potential exposure to the coronavirus as the state of PA confirms its first cases of the coronavirus. New Jersey might soon join, having advised public schools to plan for the possibility that buildings could be closed if the spread of coronavirus worsens within the state. Meanwhile, Pennsylvania has become the latest state to declare some kind of public emergency when Gov Tom Wolf signed a coronavirus disaster declaration, according to the Philly Inquirer.
This all comes after the state announced 2 presumptive positives.
As of today, there are 2 presumptive positive cases of #COVID19 in Pennsylvania.
One individual is an adult from Wayne County + the other individual is an adult from Delaware County. Both are currently in their homes in isolation.
More info: https://t.co/M4ovnub85X pic.twitter.com/yQpe1vizmM
— PA Department of Health (@PAHealthDept) March 6, 2020
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The governor said the order would help the state prepare for the outbreak.
In other news, an airline employee has apparently tested positive for the virus in Peru.
- LATAM AIRLINES SAYS EMPLOYEE IN PERU HAS TESTED POSITIVE FOR CORONAVIRUS -INTERNAL MEMO
RTRS
This is the third global airline to have a reported coronavirus issue in the past five hours, Singapore Airlines and Austrian Airlines.
* * *
Update (1255ET): Trade officials have granted an exemption to a company seeking exemptions to import masks after the firm cited a “critical shortage.”
- U.S. TRADE OFFICIALS GRANT TARIFF RELIEF FOR FACEMASKS, MEDICAL EQUIPMENT
- MEDLINE INDUSTRIES CITED ‘CRITICAL SHORTAGE OF FACEMASKS’ IN SEEKING EXEMPTION
- 27 COMPANIES GRANTED TARIFF EXEMPTIONS FOR 103 PRODUCTS FROM CHINA
* * *
Update (1240ET): Cuomo slammed the CDC’s approach to testing. Given limited test supplies, a situation that the government is scrambling to rectify, only patients with permission from doctors can get tested. Though they can’t guarantee results right away, if ever.
“We have said from day 1 that we are increasing our testing capacity, our goal is to get to 1,000 (tests per day). We wanted to increase our capacity with private labs. CDC was slow to approve the use of private labs, but we got it done and now we’re contracting with private labs to increase capacity.”
“But if you can only do 500 tests per day, you need to triage cases. You can’t just say, anybody who wants to get tested call your doctor. You can’t say ‘if you want to get tested enter here’ when there’s no exit.”
“I think this is months. I think the anxiety and the fear is more of a problem than the virus. I think it’ll continue for months.”
He then made a poorly received joke about receiving overtime pay.
* * *
Update (1230ET): The CDC’s official US case totals aren’t much use to us since they’re confirming the “presumptive” cases from state labs pretty slowly, allowing independent case counts by BNO News and the Washington Post to keep well ahead. But the agency just reported that as of 4 pm ET on Thursday (March 5), the total case count is 213, a 64-case increase since Wednesday.
Meanwhile, Cuomo’s press conference continues. The governor confirmed that all 11 new cases are from Westchester County. He added that 80% of coronavirus cases will ‘self-resolve’. He insisted that he’s not urging “calm”, he’s urging “reality.”
He spent much of the press conference complaining about the paltry $35 million earmarked for New York State in the federal coronavirus emergency spending bill.
“It’s ludicrous, it’s a drop in the bucket,” Cuomo said.
He also said that a 3.4% mortality rate seems “high for this country and especially for this state”. He said the WHO number was high even for a “global number.” “You don’t know what the denominator is so you really have no idea.”
* * *
Update (1220ET): New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo has confirmed another 11 cases in his state, bringing the total to 33.
UPDATE: There are now 33 confirmed cases of #Coronavirus in NYS — 11 new positive tests since yesterday.
All new cases are connected to the original New Rochelle case.
As we do more tests, the number of positive cases will rise, as we are seeing.
— Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) March 6, 2020
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Watch the rest of his press conference below:
Happening Now: Updating New Yorkers with the latest information on #Coronavirus and the state’s response. https://t.co/Vms475eNuh
— Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) March 6, 2020
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* * *
Update (1205ET): As Europe’s worst outbreak continues to worsen, Italian health authorities just confirmed another 678 cases of the virus, bringing the total to 4,636.
A few other updates over the last hour:
Facebook is closing its London offices.
- FACEBOOK SAYS IT IS CLOSING ITS LONDON OFFICES UNTIL MONDAY AFTER AN EMPLOYEE BASED IN SINGAPORE WHO HAS BEEN DIAGNOSED WITH COVID-19 VISITED THE LONDON OFFICES ON 24-26 FEBRUARY
Gap has closed its New York office after a worker was infected (BBG).
Preppy apparel retailer Gap Inc. has closed its New York City headquarters after a worker tested positive for the coronavirus.
The building is located at 55 Thomas St. in Lower Manhattan. The person isn’t in the office and is recovering at home, according to a memo sent to Gap workers at the location.A baggage handler at Heathrow Airport in London has tested positive (BBG):
Coronavirus has reached Europe’s busiest airport, after two British Airways baggage handlers at London Heathrow tested positive for the disease.
The affected workers are recovering in isolation at home, British Airways parent IAG SA said Friday in an email. A small number of the luggage handlers’ colleagues are also being tested, a person familiar with the matter said.
Madrid Closes 213 Old People’s Centers on Coronavirus (BBG + El Pais):
Madrid region will close 213 old people’s centers for a month to avoid novel coronavirus infections, El Pais newspaper reports, without specifying how it got the information.
Total number of cases in Spain rose to 374, Health Ministry said.
Earlier, Russia blamed Italy for the handful of cases identified inside Russia’s borders.
* * *
Update (1155ET): As the number of confirmed cases in NYC nears double-digit territory, more banks are telling their people to work from home or travel to ‘backup sites’. The latest is Citi, which is reportedly moving its traders and salespeople to a backup site in Rutherford.
Mastercard has shut two offices after an employee contracted the virus.
* * *
Update (1115ET): Mexico said it’s considering additional fiscal stimulus to combat the economic fallout from the coronavirus outbreak. Meanwhile, the State Department is reportedly considering whether to recommend that Americans avoid cruises for now.
- EXCLUSIVE – U.S. IS CONSIDERING WAYS TO DISCOURAGE SOME U.S. TRAVELERS FROM TAKING CRUISES AS PART OF EFFORTS TO LIMIT SPREAD OF CORONAVIRUS – U.S. OFFICIALS
- EXCLUSIVE – U.S. OFFICIALS SAY NO FINAL DECISION HAS BEEN MADE ON ANY POTENTIAL CRUISE INDUSTRY ACTIONS IN REGARDS TO CORONAVIRUS
- WHITE HOUSE MULLING DEFERRED TAXES OVER VIRUS IMPACT: WAPO
And as Larry Kudlow said earlier and WaPo is now apparently reporting, the White House is weighing additional tax cuts to combat virus impact.
* * *
Update (1105ET): Just two days after the WHO declared that the global mortality rate for the coronavirus was 3.4%, which prompted an avalanche of criticism of President Trump, who said he had a “hunch” the mortality rate was closer to 1% a day before US officials released an official estimate reflecting the same, the WHO has apparently back-tracked, claiming it actually can’t say for certain what the mortality rate is.
- WHO’S VAN KERKHOVE SAYS WE DON’T KNOW TRUE MORTALITY RATE
- WHO’S RYAN: VIRUS MAY BE DEVASTATING IN REFUGEE CAMPS
- *WHO: HIGH-INCOME COUNTRIES LACK SUFFICIENT HOSPITAL CAPACITY
White House Press Secretary Stephanie Grisham just said his visit to the CDC is “back on”, after Trump said something about a potential coronavirus test at the facility in Atlanta.
Grisham said that person has actually tested negative, so he visit is back on. The visit is set for 4 pm ET.
* * *
Update (1055ET): NPR just reported that the University of Washington, a state university based in Seattle, will hold the rest of its classes online until the end of the semester.
* * *
Update (1045ET): Germany has just reported another 90 cases of the coronavirus, raising its total yo 534. But more importantly, WHO’s Dr. Mike Ryan said Friday in the organization’s latest attempt to shade President Trump that the notion the virus will disappear with the arrival of the summer months is a “false hope.” WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros said that up to 20 vaccines are in the works, and that the business community must help governments suppress the virus.
Ryan also defended Japan and South Korea, saying they are doing a “fine” job.
- WHO’S TEDROS SAYS SLOWING DOWN THE EPIDEMIC SAVES LIVES
- WHO’S RYAN SAYS JAPAN, SOUTH KOREA DOING FINE JOB VS VIRUS
- WHO’S TEDROS: ONLY WAY TO BEAT VIRUS IS THROUGH UNITED EFFORT
- WHO’S RYAN: IT’S A FALSE HOPE VIRUS WILL DISAPPEAR IN SUMMER
- WHO’S RYAN: WE’RE ENTERING NEW ERA IN TERMS OF INTERACTIONS
- WHO SAYS ABSOLUTELY CRITICAL THAT PEOPLE WASH THEIR HANDS
Over the past few weeks, President Trump has repeatedly said that the “corona flu” will disappear in the spring when the regular flu season ends.
* * *
Update (0950ET): Perhaps unsurprisingly given the shape of the market, White House economic advisory Larry Kudlow was subjected to an uncharacteristically vigorous grilling Friday morning during an appearance on CNBC, the network where he once served as an anchor, until leaving to work at the White House.
Kudlow insisted that Americans should “go about their business,” adding that “national infection risk is low” – though there are exceptions.
“I would avoid Seattle,” Kudlow said, adding that travelers should use ‘common sense’ and avoid areas with outbreaks. He also repeatedly pointed out that “80% of people who get this” come out of the illness with “no trouble” – meaning we assume that they recover without requiring hospitalization.
As far as a vaccine is concerned, Kudlow said that companies are racing to find a cure (a race that the FT laid out in detail earlier this week).
“I just think the private sector is going to resolve this disease as they have in the past as you well know…we are a free country that believes in free enterprise – they call it the ‘American model’ of enterprise.”
While he believes economic growth will slow over the next quarter will slow and that the US has seen some “modest disturbances” in supply chain deliveries (“though in general ISMs look okay”), Kudlow insisted that “there’s an export boom coming once this virus dies down later in the year.
Should investors buy the dip in stocks?
“Yes,” Kudlow said. “It’s not a timing call, I’m not a tactical guy…but long run investors, absolutely.”
“I would still argue that this is contained, but you can’t be airtight.”
“This is not going to go on forever. This is going to run out of steam.”
Here are the headlines via Reuters:
- WHITE HOUSE ADVISER KUDLOW SAYS U.S. ECONOMY IS FUNDAMENTALLY SOUND -CNBC INTERVIEW
- KUDLOW SAYS U.S. ECONOMY WILL SLOW DOWN IN CERTAIN SECTORS, BUT SLOWDOWN WILL BE TEMPORARY
- KUDLOW SAYS HE DOES NOT THINK U.S. GOV’T SHOULD BE ‘THROWING CASH’ AROUND IN SHORT-TERM REBATE-TYPE PLANS
- KUDLOW SAYS MAGNITUDE OF LIKELY SLOWDOWN IN U.S. ECONOMY IS NOT KNOWN
- KUDLOW SAYS TRUMP ADMINISTRATION WOULD PREFER A TARGETED APPROACH TO ANY FISCAL STIMULUS MEASURES
- KUDLOW SAYS MORE INFORMATION NEEDED BEFORE ACTION CAN BE TAKEN TO HELP ECONOMY WITH FISCAL MEASURES
- KUDLOW SAYS HE DOES NOT WANT TO PANIC ON POLICY MEASURES IN RESPONSE TO CORONAVIRUS
- KUDLOW SAYS AMERICANS SHOULD BUY THE DIP WHEN IT COMES TO STOCKS
- KUDLOW SAYS WHEN THERE ARE MARKET CORRECTIONS, LONG-TERM INVESTORS SHOULD THINK SERIOUSLY ABOUT BUYING DURING THE DIPS
- KUDLOW SAYS UNDERSTANDABLE THAT AMERICANS WOULD WANT TO AVOID TRAVEL TO SEATTLE, BUT SIMILAR CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAKS NOT SEEN ELSEWHERE IN U.S.
- KUDLOW SAYS NATIONAL INFECTION RISK FROM CORONAVIRUS IS LOW, AVERAGE AMERICANS SHOULD GO ABOUT THEIR BUSINESS
- KUDLOW SAYS HE THINK U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NEXT QUARTER WILL SLOW
- KUDLOW SAYS HE DOES NOT THINK U.S. IS FACING RECESSION
Kudlow is now speaking on Bloomberg TV where he usually faces “a much rougher ride,” as NewSquawk pointed out.
* * *
Update (0920ET): Egypt has confirmed 12 new coronavirus cases on a cruise ship traveling down the Nile from Aswan to Luxor, according to a statement from the Egyptian health ministry and the WHO.
According to CNN, the health ministry spokesman Khaled Megahed said the detection came after the WHO warned Egypt that a Taiwanese-American tourist, who was on board the cruise, had tested positive after returning home, Ahram Online added.
The 12 cases, all of whom are Egyptian crew members, have tested positive after “a test was carried out following the conclusion of the 14-day incubation period.”
* * *
Update (0855ET): President Trump has signed the $8.3 billion coronavirus aid package into law. Meanwhile, HHS Secretary Alex Azar said Friday that the production of facemasks is “completely on schedule.”
- U.S. HEALTH SECRETARY AZAR SAYS PRODUCTION OF CORONAVIRUS TESTS IS COMPLETELY ON SCHEDULE
In a statement, Trump added that he would travel to Mar a Lago over the weekend to meet with Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro. However, as Politico reported earlier, Trump has scrapped a trip to the CDC headquarters in Atlanta even as the number of confirmed cases in the US near 250.
Meanwhile, the UK has reported another 48 cases bringing its total to 163.
US has reported 14 deaths, all but one in the Seattle area.
* * *
Update (0850ET): Switzerland’s case total just hit 210, and it became the latest European nation to confirm its first death on Friday, joining the Netherlands. The small Alpine nation is said to be on the brink of a crisis, according to domestic officials.
- SWISS HEALTH OFFICIAL SAYS THERE ARE 210 DIAGNOSED CASES OF CORONAVIRUS IN SWITZERLAND, 1 DEATH
- SWITZERLAND IS ON THE BRINK OF AN EPIDEMIC: HEALTH OFFICIAL
* * *
Update (0840ET): France has reported another 2 virus-linked deaths, bringing its total to 9. It has confirmed another 154 cases, bringing total to 577 on Friday, France’s Health Ministry said.
Two new British Airways staff have also tested positive for the virus, according to the BBC.
* * *
Update (0823ET): The number of confirmed coronavirus caases around the world has topped 100k Friday morning. We’re seeing a few different numbers, but the total case count is 100,278, according to Johns Hopkins.
Of those, 55,694 have recovered and 3,404 have died.
It’s amazing how quickly the virus has spread.
Just 7 weeks ago, the global total was less than 250 cases, all in China, and almost all in the city of Wuhan. On Friday, Chinese officials confirmed that outside of Wuhan, the province of Hubei reported zero new cases for the first time in weeks, as Sky News pointed out.
* * *
Update (0820ET): UK health officials have confirmed a second virus-linked death, less than 24 hours after its first. The man reportedly died at Milton Keynes University Hospital in Buckinghamshire.
Boris Johnson’s government on Friday managed to pass a £46 million in funding to battle the virus.
BREAKING: The government has announced £46m in funding to help tackle #coronavirus.
Boris Johnson says “in time” the funds “will deliver a vaccine” and will help develop “rapid test kits” for #COVID19.
Latest on the virus here: https://t.co/buHH9gORUv pic.twitter.com/vwLIiF0mto
— Sky News (@SkyNews) March 6, 2020
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In other news, we just discovered this video circulating via Twitter, where an Iranian doctor on the country’s Influenza Committee said between 30% and 40% of Tehran’s population could be infected. That would be nearly 5 million people.
#coronavirus Iran: Population seeking help in hospitals for coronavirus. “We estimate that 30 to 40% of Tehran’s population will be infected with COVID-19 by March 20,” says Dr. Massoud Mardani, member of Iran’s National Influenza Committee. Tehran population: 12 million. pic.twitter.com/vs8kfsm229
— nerd (@nerd_hawk) March 6, 2020
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Here’s the latest “official” count: deaths, 124; cases, 4,747.
* * *
Update (0810ET): Mike Pompeo was the featured guest on “Squawk Box” Friday morning, and when asked about China’s grandiose claims about its virus-fighting efforts, Pompeo replied that the Chinese deliberately delayed the sharing of data and other information that would have been of great benefit to the US in its effort to try to slow the coronavirus outbreak.
- U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE POMPEO SAYS CHINA SHOULD HAVE SHARED CORONAVIRUS INFORMATION MORE QUICKLY -CNBC
- POMPEO SAYS IMPERFECT CORONAVIRUS DATA FROM CHINA HAS PUT US BEHIND THE CURVE -CNBC
- POMPEO SAYS U.S. IS WATCHING SUPPLY CHAINS VERY CLOSELY AMID CORONAVIRUS -CNBC
As far as the CCP’s propaganda about the virus originating in the US…
Pompeo has called coronavirus the Wuhan virus. He explains he’s using that term because the CCP said that’s where the virus originated, and he says to take their word for it, on fox this morning.
— Kylie Atwood (@kylieatwood) March 6, 2020
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The money quote from Pompeo:
“The information that we got at the front end of this thing wasn’t perfect and has led us now to a place where much of the challenge we face today has put us behind the curve,” Pompeo said. “That’s not the way infectious disease doctors tell me it should work. It’s not the way America works with transparency and openness and the sharing of the information that needs to take place.”
He added that it had been “incredibly frustrating” to work with the Chinese government to get the data on the coronavirus “which will ultimately be the solution to both getting the vaccine and attacking this risk.”
* * *
Update (0800ET): Russian state-run newswire RIA Novosti reports that all of the coronavirus cases confirmed in the country so far have been imported from Italy.
It’s the latest sign of the growing frustration across Europe as the Netherlands has become the latest nation to confirm its first coronavirus-related death, as many accuse the Italian government of botching the response to the virus. By the way, the number of cases confirmed in the Netherlands is 128.
Make no mistake: This is Moscow underhandedly accusing Rome of dropping the ball.
Meanwhile, here’s a treat from China’s state media: A news anchor says the Chinese government is demanding “an apology” from the rest of the world for the “sacrifices” made by the Chinese people to blunt the impact of the virus on the rest of the world.
中共党媒认为在 #武汉肺炎 这个问题上， “是世界欠了中国的。”
Mainland Chinese media demands an apology from the rest of the world for the sacrifice China has made for #coronavirus pic.twitter.com/8OZw9BXiz3— 曾錚 Jennifer Zeng (@jenniferatntd) March 6, 2020
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Of course, the government has sought to suggest that the virus may have come from the US, even though government researchers have confirmed that the outbreak began in Wuhan.
* * *
Update (0727ET): Some new headlines are hitting out of Greece, noting that 14 new cases have been confirmed, bringing the total confirmed to 45.
- GREEK HEALTH MINISTRY OFFICIAL SAYS ¬ GREECE HAS CONFIRMED 14 NEW CORONAVIRUS CASES
- GREEK HEALTH MINISTRY OFFICIAL SAYS EXTENDS MEASURES IN THREE PELOPONNESE AREAS
- TOTAL NUMBER OF CORONAVIRUS INFECTIONS IN GREECE HAVE RISEN TO 45
Singapore has confirmed 13 new cases, its largest daily increase yet.
- SINGAPORE CONFIRMS 13 NEW CORONAVIRUS CASES IN BIGGEST DAILY JUMP, INCLUDES SINGAPORE AIRLINES CABIN CREW MEMBER
According to Channel News Asia, an English-language, Singapore-based media org, this brings the total number of cases in the city-state to 130 since its first case was confirmed on Jan. 23. Out of the new cases, nine are linked to the cluster involving a private dinner function at SAFRA Jurong on Feb 15. One patient is a SingTel employee, another is a Singapore Airlines cabin crew member, which the government is counting as an ‘imported’ case.
Another patient is a permanent resident who recently traveled to Germany and is believed to have contracted it there. The last case was in the same ward as an earlier patient.
* * *
Update (0710ET): CNBC’s Eunice Yoon reports that Chinese officials have announced that they will have a vaccine ready by April.
No details unfortunately https://t.co/HDdhrNAncz
— Eunice Yoon (@onlyyoontv) March 6, 2020
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No new date for National People’s Congress. Set date will be good indicator #China feels it has contained #coronavirus. I was asked to resubmit my photo for reporting on NPC so at least we know it is not canceled😉. On stimulus, many expect RRR cut soon. No idea on stimulus size. https://t.co/wu9ndkuhxI
— Eunice Yoon (@onlyyoontv) March 6, 2020
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More signs #China wants to return to normal. Schools to start reopening next week. Qinghai province to stagger start dates from Mar 11 to 20. Guizhou province says schools to reopen Mar 16. (These areas very few cases of #coronavirus.)
— Eunice Yoon (@onlyyoontv) March 6, 2020
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Link about NHC’s press briefing on #vaccines today in state news agency @XHNews: Link about NHC’s press briefing today in state news agency @XHNews: https://t.co/jltLEmtLII #China #coronavirus
— Eunice Yoon (@onlyyoontv) March 6, 2020
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#China’s top health authority expects #coronavirus vaccines to be available for emergency and clinical research use in April. National Health Commission said teams pursuing five approaches. Cautioned about obstacles.
— Eunice Yoon (@onlyyoontv) March 6, 2020
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Yoon also highlighted a story in China’s state media calling out local governments for “faking” data like electricity usage to make it seem like China’s economy is more active than it is, something that we’ve also dawn attention to.
Local companies and officials are fraudulently boosting electricity consumption and other metrics in order to meet tough new back-to-work targets as the spread of #COVIDー19 in #China wanes, a @caixin investigation has found. https://t.co/4OW5hGQSLh
— Eunice Yoon (@onlyyoontv) March 6, 2020
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As we said at the time: Why must the owner of the empty factory pretend the factory is operating? Because “Higher ups are watching the electricity numbers.” And why are higher ups watching the electricity numbers? Because they know that not only the rest of the world is also watching these numbers, but so is China’s population.
* * *
It only took three months. In that time, the novel coronavirus has spread from a wet market (or, possibly, a specialized laboratory) in Wuhan, China to every continent except Antarctica. Thanks in large part to the EU’s unwillingness to restrict free movement within the Schengen Area, the virus has infected practically every state in Europe. Now that Serbia has confirmed its first case, as of Friday morning New York Time, Slovakia is the only remaining state in Europe that is virus-free. Even Vatican City, Andorra, San Marino and Luxembourg have reported at least one case.
Courtesy of WaPo
At this point, the only continents that haven’t reported a pervasive spread of the virus are South America and Africa. But we suspect that will change in the coming days and weeks, once the virus has been given time to incubate. Worldwide, the number of confirmed cases is on the cusp of topping 100,000. At last count, we were at 98,704 cases worldwide, according to Johns Hopkins data.
Back in the US, health officials in Washington State, Oregon and California have all identified cases involving individuals who haven’t recently traveled, as we reported yesterday. These cases are a sign of “community spread” to a degree that officials have yet to truly ascertain. So far, the Trump administration has imposed travel restrictions directed at countries with the worst outbreaks, including China, Iran, Italy, and South Korea. The CDC has also warned travelers against visiting Japan right now. At last check, according to BNO, there are 234 cases in the US, if we include all the “presumptive” cases that have been announced.
Officials announced the country’s 14th virus-linked death late Thursday and several states announced their first “presumptive” positives, including Maryland, which joined California, Florida and Washington in declaring states of emergency, or official public health emergencies (as in Fla.).
Vice President Mike Pence on Thursday pledged federal aid to Washington State as all but one death has so far been recorded in the state (the other is the dead patient in California linked to the ‘Grand Princess’). 11 of the deaths have been recorded at EvergreenHealth Medical Center in Kirkland, near a nursing home where more than 10 patients and employees have already been confirmed infected.
In addition to the two new deaths announced late Thursday, five new cases were confirmed in the state, four of them among nursing home residents. The fifth case was reported in Snohomish County, the neighboring county that is also a part of suburban Seattle, and has recorded a handful of cases.
Washington’s death toll from the coronavirus reached 13 on Thursday, driven by an outbreak at a nursing home in the Seattle suburbs, and the state’s overall number of infections rose to 75, according to CNN.
Courtesy of WaPo
As the virus spreads across a Jewish community in New York’s Westchester County, Rabbi Reuven Fink, the rabbi at the Young Israel synagogue and allegedly the rabbi of Lawrence Garbuz, the New Rochelle lawyer who has become the ‘patient zero’ of Westchester County, has also been infected.
According to the city department of health, 2,773 people – most of whom have recently returned from 1 of five countries – are under voluntary quarantine in the city, per the NYT.
But the virus’s potential reach was underscored by a much larger number: The City Department of Health is keeping tabs on 2,773 New Yorkers currently in home isolation, most of them in self-quarantine, city officials said on Thursday.
Most of those under self-quarantine have recently returned from the five countries where the outbreak has been most severe: China, Italy, Iran, South Korea and Japan, the New York City health commissioner, Dr. Oxiris Barbot, said.
The two new patients confirmed in NYC are hospitalized and said to be ‘critically ill’.
In South Korea, the site of the worst outbreak outside China, officials confirmed another 827 in two separate batches cases so far on Friday, bringing the total confirmed cases to 6,593. The Foreign Ministry publicly rebuked Japan for imposing a two-week mandatory quarantine for visitors from South Korea, and in apparent retaliation, the office has halted visa waivers for the Japanese in what the NYT described as “tit for tat” retaliation over the 14-day quarantine and other restrictions on travelers imposed by Japan.
Offer a classic example of poetic justice, ten leaders of the cult cited as the ground-zero for the outbreak in South Korea – and who may soon face murder investigations for failing to take steps to contain the virus – have tested positive for the virus.
Late Thursday, mainland China reported 143 new cases of coronavirus and 30 deaths for Thursday. On Wednesday, they reported 149 additional cases and 31 additional deaths on March 4, to bring the total cases in China to 80,552 and death toll to 3,042.
As schools remain shut across Japan, Chiba Prefecture has reported two more cases, both men, according to Kyodo.
Though the Pope has reportedly been tested for the coronavirus and confirmed negative, Vatican City, which has an official population of only 1,000 people, has reported its 1st case. Spokesman Matteo Bruni said the discovery was made on Thursday and that outpatient services in Vatican clinics had been suspended to sanitize the areas.
More grim news: Officials in the Netherlands have confirmed their first coronavirus-linked death.
Microsoft, Adidas and Lockheed Martin have joined Amazon, Facebook, Samsung, BMW and dozens of companies around the world that have reported cases among employees. In South Korea, Samsung has suspended operations at its smartphone factory in the small southeastern city of Gumi once again on Friday after another worker tested positive for coronavirus, a spokeswoman said. So far, six workers at the factory complex, where the company makes its top-of-the-line G20 smartphones and the Z Flip foldable phone, have been infected by the virus, prompting several temporary shutdowns.
For the second week in a row, the virus has disrupted Friday prayers across the Middle East. Iran remains the epicenter of the largest outbreak in the region. Some 60,000 mosques were closed on Friday. Iran reported another 1,234 cases on Friday, bringing its total to 4,747, along with 107 deaths according to the official death toll (with ‘unofficial’ reports claiming more than 1,000 deaths).
In India, the number of confirmed cases rose to 31 on Friday as schools were ordered closed across the capital of Delhi after the first case in the city was confirmed on Tuesday. The virus is forcing many Indians to miss out on Holi, one of India’s most important holidays.
Interestingly enough, even as the Communist Party pushed remarks by a professional epidemiologist on Friday who said the number of new cases reported in Wuhan would soon fall to zero, western media shared a viral video of residents of the city shouting complaints at visiting government officials below.
“Everything is fake!” shouted one resident, in a video clip that was shared on social media by People’s Daily, a state-run newspaper, which covered the government’s response to the heckling.
【#武漢人向中央領導大喊之後】5日，中央指導組在 #武漢 考察。網傳視頻顯示，有居民從家裡向指導組大喊“假的”，反映社區假裝送菜送肉給業主，實際工作不到位的問題。副總理孫春蘭當即要求深入調查，不要掩飾矛盾。目前，武漢已派人對該社區逐一上門調查，了解居民訴求。https://t.co/8XRY6faClw pic.twitter.com/VS9HlE06id
— 人民日報 People’s Daily (@PDChinese) March 5, 2020
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/06/2020 – 20:36 - Stop Calling It A "Stutter": Here Are Dozens Of Examples Of Biden's Dementia Symptoms
Stop Calling It A “Stutter”: Here Are Dozens Of Examples Of Biden’s Dementia Symptoms
Authored by Caitlin Johnstone via Medium.com,
It’s very bizarre and dissonant how there are currently two separate and non-overlapping lines of criticism going on against the campaign of establishment-anointed Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden. There are the perfectly accurate criticisms regarding the right-wing, militaristic policy positions of the politician Joe Biden used to be, and then there are the equally accurate criticisms of Biden’s handlers and Democratic Party leadership for wheeling out the dementia-addled husk of a man he currently is to run for the world’s most powerful elected office.
These two debates do not interweave, because they are not relevant to one another. It doesn’t matter what political positions a dementia victim once had; what matters is taking care of him and keeping him away from hazards, like sharp objects and nuclear launch codes. It’s impossible to know what actual political convictions still remain held within a mind that can no longer lucidly string thoughts together anyway.
I hate doing this. I hate repeatedly writing about the obvious and undeniable fact that an old man is exhibiting obvious and undeniable symptoms of incipient dementia. It isn’t fun, and it doesn’t feel good. But the alternative is laying down and allowing the Democratic party and its allied media to gaslight people into believing it’s not a thing, as they are doing currently.
At a certain point there needs to be a serious and empathetic conversation about Biden’s relatively frequent, confused, irritable inability to complete coherent thoughts. It’s not about a stutter. Watching him speak a mere four years ago makes that clear. Hope this happens soon!
— Cody Johnston (@drmistercody) March 5, 2020
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If you do a live Twitter search for the word “stutter”, you will as of this writing see that word being tweeted multiple times per minute on the social media platform as Democrats scramble to defend Biden from people who are accurately highlighting the indisputable fact that the former vice president is showing signs of cognitive decline. In my interactions with Biden supporters over the last 24 hours I’ve had this irrelevant word suddenly start getting thrown at me, because narrative managers in the mainstream media and the Biden campaign have been aggressively promoting the talking point that Biden’s increasingly frequent neurological misfirings on the campaign trail are actually the result of a longstanding speech impediment.
This is false. While it is true that Biden has periodically exhibited signs of a stutter, the inability to hold on to his own train of thought, forgetting where he is and who he’s with, grossly incorrect use of language, and inappropriate behavior are not symptoms of a stutter.
Here is the Mayo Clinic’s list of symptoms for a stutter, also known as a stammer:
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Difficulty starting a word, phrase or sentence
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Prolonging a word or sounds within a word
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Repetition of a sound, syllable or word
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Brief silence for certain syllables or words, or pauses within a word (broken word)
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Addition of extra words such as “um” if difficulty moving to the next word is anticipated
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Excess tension, tightness, or movement of the face or upper body to produce a word
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Anxiety about talking
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Limited ability to effectively communicate
Here is the Mayo Clinic’s list of dementia symptoms:
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Memory loss, which is usually noticed by a spouse or someone else
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Difficulty communicating or finding words
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Difficulty with visual and spatial abilities, such as getting lost while driving
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Difficulty reasoning or problem-solving
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Difficulty handling complex tasks
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Difficulty with planning and organizing
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Difficulty with coordination and motor functions
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Confusion and disorientation
Clearly, the symptoms of the speech impediment are very distinct from the symptoms of a degenerative neurological disorder. What follows are dozens of examples suggesting the latter, most of which were compiled by the Twitter user @KoenSwinkels. You may be absolutely certain that Trump will not hesitate to highlight this growing mountain of evidence should Democratic Party leadership successfully install Biden as the nominee; in fact both Trump and his Fox News cheerleaders are doing so already.
Joe Biden is Jeb Bush plus dementia. Trump will be far less charitable with his symptoms than I am here, and if he’s nominated the president will make certain this story dominates news headlines from the convention until November. Anyone who wants Trump out of office should fiercely oppose Biden’s nomination.
1. “Make sure you have the record player on at night… make sure the kids hear words.”
Everyone talked about Biden’s bizarre call for families to make use of an archaic audio technology in response to a debate question about slavery, and some criticized his paternalistic suggestion that black Americans need to be taught how to raise their children correctly, but hardly anyone made a fuss about the fact that his entire answer was also a rambling, incoherent word salad.
It’s easy to overlook linguistic peculiarities when they’re spoken, so I made a verbatim transcript of Biden’s complete answer, exactly as he spoke it. There are no typos. Read it carefully, resisting the urge to mentally re-word it in order to make it make sense:
“Well they have to deal with the — Look, there is institutional segregation in this country. And from the time I got involved I started dealing with that. Redlining. Banks. Making sure that we’re in a position where — Look, talk about education. I propose that what we take is those very poor schools, the Title 1 schools, triple the amount of money we spend from 15 to 45 billion a year. Give every single teacher a raise that equal raise to getting out — the sixty-thousand dollar level.
“Number two: make sure that we bring into the help the — the student, the, the teachers deal with the problems that come from home. The problems that come from home. We need — We have one school psychologist for every fifteen hundred kids in America today. It’s crazy. The teachers are reca — Now, I’m married to a teacher. My deceased wife is a teacher. They have every problem coming to them. We have make sure that every single child does in fact have three, four, and five year-olds go to school — school, not daycare. School. We bring social workers into homes of parents to help them deal with how to raise their children. It’s not that they don’t wanna help, they don’t want — they don’t know quite what to do. Play the radio, make sure the television, the — ‘scuse me, make sure you have the record player on at night, the-the-the-the phone, make sure the kids hear words. A kid coming from a very poor school, a very poor background, will hear four million words fewer spoken by the time they get there.”
Compare this muddle-headed mess, and all the following subsequent examples, to the crisp, forceful way Biden used to speak:
Or even just a few years ago:
Joe Biden explains why Bernie Sanders is the best to beat Trump.
(Yes, this is Joe 4 years ago.. I know it’s strange watching him talk in full sentences.) pic.twitter.com/5zhs1eYvFu
— Aisha Sharna (@SharnaAisha) March 4, 2020
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2. “We hold these truths to be self-evident. All men and women created by the, go, you know the, you know the thing.”
3. “Super Thursday”
4. “I’m a Democratic candidate for the United States Senate. Look me over, if you like what you see help out, if not vote for the other Bi- gimme a look though okay?”
This is so sad.
Here @JoeBiden says to the crowd in South Carolina that he is “running for the United States Senate” and that if they don’t like him they can “vote for the other Biden.”
I honestly wish he would’ve retired & not subjected himself to the rigors of this campaign. pic.twitter.com/mygFnsrdjC
— Shaun King (@shaunking) February 25, 2020
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Fact check: Biden has not been a candidate for the United States Senate in a great many years, and is in fact running for the presidency.
5. “Alright Chuck!”
BIDEN: “Alright Chuck”
WALLACE: “It’s Chris but anyway..”
How many Biden Gaffes have there been this week?
— Benny (@bennyjohnson) March 1, 2020
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Fact check: Chris. Chris Wallace.
6. “Right here in the state of North South Carolina.”
Fact check: Not a state.
7. Randomly biting his wife’s finger.
Fact check: Don’t do that, Joe.
8. Worked with Deng Xiaoping, who died 23 years ago, on the Paris Climate Accord during the Obama administration.
9. “Poor kids are just as bright and just as talented as white kids.”
10. Whatever the hell this is.
11. We’ll increase healthcare premiums and make sure care is not quality, only affordable.
12. “Look, fat, look, here’s the deal.”
13. “My deceased son was the Attorney General of the United States.”
⚠️ THREAD – BIDEN’S LIES ⚠️#BidenLies: Joe Biden falsely says his son was Attorney General of the United States. #FactCheckBiden pic.twitter.com/Y3ijV2khuX
— 🌹Becca 🐾🌲👣🌎 (@Becca4Bernie) March 1, 2020
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Beau Biden was only the Attorney General of Delaware.
14. Being aggressive and inappropriate with Iraq war veterans, wrongly insinuating that his son died in the war.
US veterans recently confronted Biden over his support for the Iraq invasion, one saying “My friends are dead because of your policies.”
“So’s my son,” Biden replied. “He was in Iraq, okay? For a year. Not that it matters, right?”
“I’m not going after your son,” the veteran said.
“You better not,” Biden replied.
Biden’s son was in Iraq from 2008 to 2009. He died in 2015, of cancer.
15. This incoherent word salad.
Anyway, good time to remind everyone that Joe Biden has dementia. pic.twitter.com/xETlMd46Qc
— 29 U.S.C. § 157 (@OrganizingPower) March 1, 2020
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Here’s a transcript of an answer Biden gave to a question at a town hall. Read through it, resisting the urge to mentally revise it into something more coherent:
“And so I was saying that, and what they turned around and said, Joe Biden said, in effect, they said, that Joe Biden said that what he was told, that what, that what the white supremacists argue, that we have no problem, that our, our, our basic English jurisprudential system is not the problem. The problem is those countries like Africa and Asia and those places, they’re the reason why we have all these problems. So they turn it around to make it sound like that, and by the way, the title of the article is, was, is the Washington Post ‘The Deceptively (indecipherable) of Joe Biden Singles, Signals What Is Coming’ and that is that’s a whole bunch of lies. The generic point I’m making here is that, what has happened is that, I know we’re going to get in to, whomever the nominee is of the Democratic Party, is going to have a plethora of lies told about him or her, and misrepresentations and this went on the internet, this edited article, it got retweeted by some press people and then they realized it was edited to make it look like something not… white supremacists, see, Biden’s acknowledging that the problem here is that that all those folks, all those minority folks are the problem. And so, in essence. And so they corrected, they corrected. You’re going to see a lot more of it. You’re going to see a lot more of not only my statements being taken out of context, and lied about, or altered, you’re going to see whomever the Democratic nominee is because that’s how this guy operates. Now. Whether or not I can win?”
16. “We choose truth over facts.”
17. “150 million people have been killed since 2007 when Bernie voted to exempt the gun manufacturers from liability.”
This would be about half the population of the United States. Pretty sure that would’ve made bigger headlines.
18. Confusing Theresa May with Margaret Thatcher.
He only missed by 29 years!! 😂
Biden mixes up British PM Theresa May with Margaret Thatcher, who left office in 1990 https://t.co/H1wiDRY47A— David Wohl (@DavidWohl) May 5, 2019
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19. Confusing Angela Merkel with Margaret Thatcher.
20. “You’re a lying dog-faced pony soldier.”
21. Rambling confused gibberish, including saying Robert F. Kennedy and Martin Luther King Jr were assassinated in the late 70s.
Both men were assassinated in 1968.
22. Fix the problem of violence against women by “punching at it and punching at it and punching at it.”
23. Implementing a childcare tax credit would “put 720 million women back in the workforce.”
This would be more than double the entire US population.
24. Thought he was in Vermont when he was in New Hampshire.
25. Confused New Hampshire and Nevada.
#Biden mistakes New Hampshire for Nevada pic.twitter.com/v8kiLjElq0
— CaseStudyQB (@CaseStudyQB) February 12, 2020
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26. Said he was vice president during the Parkland shooting.
Biden left the office of the vice presidency in January 2017. The Parkland shooting was February 2018.
27. Said 1976 when he meant 2014.
28. Said he’s looking forward to “appointing the first African American woman to the United States Senate.”
Joe Biden is looking forward to ‘appointing’ the first African American woman to the Senate.
First, since when are senators appointed?
Second, Carol Braun was the first African American woman senator in 1993.
Third, Joe Biden’s repeated gaffes make him unfit for the office! pic.twitter.com/YCThCORGQM
— Andrew Pollack (@AndrewPollackFL) February 28, 2020
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Nobody “appoints” senators; they’re elected. The first African American woman in the US Senate took office in 1993.
29. “Go to Joe 30330 and help me in this fight.”
I beg your pardon? pic.twitter.com/sO6FU3QW4X
— Axios (@axios) August 1, 2019
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Biden apparently received instructions from his team to tell debate viewers to text “Joe” to 30330, but these directions were too complicated for him. He wound up sending viewers to a random empty URL which was subsequently bought up by a Buttigieg supporter.
30. Made, then dropped, claim that he was arrested in South Africa while trying to visit Nelson Mandela in prison.
Biden’s fake Mandela story would have been a week-long news disaster for him back when anyone still had bandwidth and standards https://t.co/ESdcjChPsQ
— Tom Scocca (@tomscocca) February 27, 2020
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31. “Clipping coupons at the stock market.”
That’s not a thing, Joe.
32. Confused his wife and his sister.
33. Jill Biden’s face revealing a flash freakout when he starts forgetting what he’s saying.
Joe Biden FORGOT what he was saying AGAIN.
Jill Biden’s REACTION to it! #SuperTuesdayResults #SuperTuesday pic.twitter.com/7pDroKqLOm
— Andrew Jerell Jones (@sluggahjells) March 4, 2020
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34. Claimed he had the support of the “only” African American woman that had ever been elected to the senate, while the other one was standing on the stage with him.
35. “Why why why why why why why!”
36. Referred to Bernie Sanders as “the president”, then, still unable to remember his name, called him “my friend Vermont”.
37. Also called Cory Booker “the president”.
That’s it for now. Let me know if I missed any good ones; I’ll probably keep this updated with all the latest neurological misfirings until this discussion goes mainstream like it should already be.
* * *
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Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/06/2020 – 20:25 -
- With VIX Hitting 50, The Fed Must Now Step In Or A Catastrophic Crash Is Inevitable
With VIX Hitting 50, The Fed Must Now Step In Or A Catastrophic Crash Is Inevitable
With stocks tumbling, the VIX has, predictably, soared, briefly tipping above 50 intraday on Friday and last trading above 46, surpassing the levels hit during the Volmageddon in Feb 2018 and the highest level since the US credit rating downgrade in August 2011.
Just as dramatic is the accelerating VIX term structure inversion, which has pushed the curve to the steepest backwardation since the financial crisis…
… as spot has exploded higher even as the move in futures has been far more normal.
But while we have extensively discussed the ongoing equity crash where realized vol has soared, and has been a direct factor in the surge in implied volatility, there is another, potentially far more dire impact that the soaring VIX will have on the cross-asset universe, one that could potentially unleash a historic crash driven by the one pillar that has so far supported the US economy and stock market: credit.
What sparked our concern was the latest note from SocGen’s Albert Edwards, who laments the ongoing collapse in yields, which he had fully predicted in the past as part of his Ice-Age thesis (at least until MMT steps in and blows yields up into the stratosphere as the monetary endgame begins) and is familiar to anyone who has followed Edwards’ writings over the years. We won’t spend much time on this part of his note, suffice to point out that the unprecedented plunge in yields may be just the beginning now that the Japanification of the US has begun in earnest, and that we are nearing that tipping point for yields beyond which further downside becomes a negative for risk assets as it no longer stimulates equity buying in contravention to the Fed Model, or as Edwards puts it, “If Japan remains the template, much more downside lies ahead for the US .”
One final point on where Edwards see stocks headed to if he indeed right, and further yield declines turn negative for risk:
The lesson from the recent landmark move in the 30y US T-Bond yield below the equity dividend yield is simple. If we are right and US 30y yield falls below zero, US PEs will contract from their lofty 19x forward earnings peak seen recently, especially in a likely recession. Try 8x instead at the bottom of the next recession and see where that takes us!
Shifting attention from stocks to credit, this is where things more interesting.
Addressing the massive credit bubble that was built up over the past decade on the back of record cheap debt, and where trillions in BBB-rated issuance was used to repurchase stock pushing stocks to mindblowing levels even as most investors pulled money from the market for the past several years, Edwards reminds us that “almost every major supranational economic organisation, including the OECD, IMF and BIS, has warned that the huge build-up of US corporate debt is the Achilles Heel of the US economy – the new credit bubble to replace the mortgage-backed securities bubble of the 2000s. This Zero Hedge article for example, highlights a recent IMF report that some 20% of US companies are vulnerable to default or bankruptcy in the next recession – link. The surprise to many, such as myself, has been the complacency of the corporate bond market in the face of the sky high corporate debt ratios (see chart below).”
Edwards then highlights a theory proposed by his SocGen colleague, Andrew Lapthorne, explaining the complacency in the corporate bond market despite companies loading their balance sheets up to the eyeballs with debt, one which brings us to the punchline of why the surge in VIX may soon result in a shockwave that topples the record US credit bubble. “He notes the equivalence of corporate bond spreads and measures of equity volatility (see chart below). This is not just a spurious correlation in the sense that recessions could cause both series to surge independently. Andrew believes there is a direct causal relationship from low levels of equity vol directly to tight corporate bond spreads.“
In other words, SocGen’s theory is that the ultra low VIX of the past few years was the necessary and sufficient condition permitting record low yields:
Andrew says that credit models such as Merton’s ‘distance to default’ and Moody’s KMV models suck in equity volatility and spit out the appropriate credit spreads (see this BoE analysis – link). It is low equity vol encouraged by continual Fed interventions and the market’s belief in the continued Fed Put that has sustained low corporate bond spreads, depressed defaults and allowed companies to borrow excessively.
Of course, until just two weeks ago, the equity market had remained at or close to all-time highs despite accelerating weakness in the economy, as Edwards shows in the chart below.
And echoing an argument we have made repeatedly in the past, to the extent that the Fed’s recent monetary largesse (or “Not-QE” as most people know it) has kept an over-valued equity market at or close to record highs, Edwards claims that it is the Fed that directly and explicitly suppressed equity market volatility.
To the uninitiated, measures of equity market volatility tend to be low while a market is rising, but spike up sharply when the market declines. As the saying goes “the market rises on foot, but descends in the elevator”.
The relationship between high stock prices and low yields (for whatever reason) has been a reflexive one adding further complexity to the causal link: in any case, to the extent that a buoyant equity market has suppressed corporate bond spreads, despite balance sheets groaning with debt, companies have been able to access funds they would never have been allowed to do in more normal times, the SocGen strategist points out, or as he puts it “Low vol and low interest rates misallocate resources.” That is why, as the next chart shows, there is a direct causal relationship between rising equity vol and defaults. The markets can break a company even if it is in a position to maintain its coupon payments.
The chart above is among the reasons why we, along with many commentators, highlight that the investment grade universe of corporate bonds is now majority populated by the lowest BBB grade bonds. It is also why Edwards shows in his work that the Russell 2000 group of smaller companies has the highest levels of leverage of all the US quoted sectors: “that is why we highlight the huge retail flows of funds into corporate bond vehicles. That is why we highlight the imbalance between the tradability of corporate bond investment vehicles and their underlying assets.”
In short: by suppressing VIX, the Fed’s visible hand has created a credit bubble. And now the VIX has exploded to levels seen just once in the past decade.
What happens next? Here, Edwards’ imagination about the coming devstation is – as usual – without parallel:
Just wait until the first corporate bond fund is forced to “gate” their fund as redemptions soar. You will then hear a loud sucking sound coming out of the whole corporate bond mutual fund and ETF complex. This is a surely a flow of funds disaster waiting to happen.
He is right: the growing liquidity mismatch among investment funds, and the creeping “gates” among funds holding on to illiquid paper, is precisely the reason why last July we wrote that there is a “New, Ticking Time Bomb In The Market.“
Back to Edwards who continues his apocalyptic tour de force, warning that “this time around things are much, much worse than 2008, particularly as the whole economy effectively cantilevers off multiple financial market bubbles. For when the equity market begins its long descent in the elevator and Vix begins to spike upwards, as it has begun to do in recent days (see chart below), we would expect corporate bond spreads to eventually explode higher.”
Said otherwise, “companies that are already likely struggling with the profit-crushing effects of the coronavirus will see a cascade of defaults and bankruptcies and the economy will be plunged into deep deflationary recession. The coronavirus will be blamed, but it is the tottering pyramid of financial cards built on sand, constructed by the Fed, that is to blame. It’s the Fed’s fault.“
We couldn’t agree more.
* * *
And just in case anyone skipped right to the conclusion, here it is in one sentence and one chart: unless the Fed manages to hammer the VIX as it always has in the past decade, and puts the “coronapanic” genie back in its bottle, the credit bubble – the biggest ever – is about to burst and wipe out the global economy in the process.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/06/2020 – 20:20 - Trump Promotes Freedom Caucus Leader Mark Meadows To Chief Of Staff, Sends Mick Mulvaney To Northern Ireland
Trump Promotes Freedom Caucus Leader Mark Meadows To Chief Of Staff, Sends Mick Mulvaney To Northern Ireland
In the middle of a rapidly escalating pandemic, President Trump has finally decided to fill that chief of staff slot that’s technically been vacant since John Kelly left at the end of 2018.
Mick Mulvaney has been serving as acting chief of staff while also leading the critical Office of Management and Budget (OMB). But many have gotten used to him as chief of staff, a far more visible role where Mulvaney has nevertheless suffered a handful of embarrassing gaffes, despite his overall competence performance. Mulvaney also served as head of the CFPB until December 2018.
However, after more than a year with Mulvaney in the acting role, Trump has apparently decided to appoint North Carolina Congressman and Freedom Caucus leader Mark Meadows, long rumored as a potential chief of staff candidate, to the position in a series of tweets sent at 8pmET on a Friday.
For whatever reason (perhaps because rumors that Mulvaney has somehow displeased Trump are true), Mulvaney is being shipped off to Belfast as the US Special Envoy for Northern Ireland.
Trump made the announcement on Twitter:
“I am pleased to announce that Congressman Mark Meadows will become White House Chief of Staff. I have long known and worked with Mark, and the relationship is a very good one…I want to thank Acting Chief Mick Mulvaney for having served the Administration so well. He will become the United States Special Envoy for Northern Ireland. Thank you!”
I am pleased to announce that Congressman Mark Meadows will become White House Chief of Staff. I have long known and worked with Mark, and the relationship is a very good one….
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 7, 2020
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….I want to thank Acting Chief Mick Mulvaney for having served the Administration so well. He will become the United States Special Envoy for Northern Ireland. Thank you!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 7, 2020
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Notably, Meadows will get the full title, no “acting” which Mulvaney allegedly kept so he could earn the highest salary of his many roles (that of head of the OMB).
Meadows gets the full title. Not “acting,” which Mulvaney had, and recently told the Oxford Union he kept so he could keep his higher OMB salary. https://t.co/B8x0cjNx1Y
— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) March 7, 2020
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This caps off a busy day for Trump.
Donald Trump’s day so far:
– Fires Mick Mulvaney
– Ships him off to Northern Ireland
– Names Mark Meadows new White House Chief of Staff
– Attacks Governor Jay Inslee
– Botches Grand Princess outbreak
– It’s all falling apart
– Trump is going to prison
– It’s still only 8:15pm— Palmer Report (@PalmerReport) March 7, 2020
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It wouldn’t be a Trump twitter firing if the person being fired didn’t find out at the same time as everyone else…we look forward to Mulvaney telling the world how the secret service showed up at his house in the middle of dinner and told him to pack his bags and grab his passport.
Does Mulvaney know? https://t.co/OkbHNlSP7j
— Katie Phang (@KatiePhang) March 7, 2020
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Whatever the reason for this firing (was it a mix of tension-induced panic and rage?, we’re sure we’ll read the ‘full story’ this weekend in the NYT or Washington Post.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/06/2020 – 20:17 - MbS Arrests Top Royals On 'Treason' At Moment World's Attention On Coronavirus
MbS Arrests Top Royals On ‘Treason’ At Moment World’s Attention On Coronavirus
A huge development out of Saudi Arabia late Friday via the Wall Street Journal which reports Saudi authorities have detained two prominent royals close to the throne — namely, the ageing King Salman’s brother, Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz al Saud, and Prince Mohammed bin Nayef bin Abdulaziz al Saud (often referred to as MBN).
“The Saudi royal court accused the two men of plotting a coup to unseat the king and crown prince, according to people familiar with the situation,” WSJ reports. One of MBN’s brothers, Nawaf, was also reported to be arrested.
Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, right. Getty Images. Black-clad and masked commandos raided the homes of the two men Friday morning on charges of treason, in what’s being widely interpreted as part of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s (MbS) broader “purge” of potential powerful rivals and centers of influence, which first began in 2017 when scores of princes and top officials were locked up in the Riyadh Ritz-Carlton.
Perhaps entirely to be expected, Saudi authorities gave no details or evidence of the alleged coup attempt even though a “treason” conviction means they face execution, as the WSJ notes further:
The two men who potentially had once been in line for the throne are now under threat of lifetime imprisonment or execution, said people familiar with the situation. The details of the alleged coup attempt couldn’t be learned.
Crucially both Prince Ahmed and MBN previously spent time as minister of the interior, a very powerful post with direct oversight over troops and Saudi intelligence.
Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz. File image via Middle East Monitor. Bin Nayef, it must be remembered, had initially been in line to be king before being stripped of his powers as Interior Minister in 2017 and King Salman declaring his son MbS heir to the throne.
Following the state-sanctioned (and no doubt MbS-ordered) murder and dismemberment of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Oct. 2018, any drastic or aggressive consolidation of power related action out of MbS had cooled significantly for a while compared to the period of the near daily headlines coming out of the kingdom in 2017 through early 2018 amid the crackdown.
Though political and business leaders in the West essentially shunned MbS at major public events for much of the year following Khashoggi’s death, bin Salman was quietly “rehabilitated” by the elites and it’s recently seemed ‘business as usual’.
It appears MbS is now once again going back on the offensive, perhaps also given the world’s attention is now focused far away from the crown prince’s political machinations as the Coronavirus fast becomes a global pandemic.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/06/2020 – 20:05 - Astronomers Detect Largest Explosion In The History Of The Universe Since The Big Bang Itself
Astronomers Detect Largest Explosion In The History Of The Universe Since The Big Bang Itself
Authored by Aaron Kesel via TheMindUnleashed.com,
Astronomers in Perth, Australia recently detected and observed the largest explosion ever found in the universe since the Big Bang, according to a study published in the Astrophysics Journal.
“We’ve seen outbursts in the centers of galaxies before but this one is really, really massive,” said Curtin University professor Melanie Johnston-Hollitt.
“And we don’t know why it’s so big. But it happened very slowly—like an explosion in slow motion that took place over hundreds of millions of years.”
Researchers at the Curtin University International Centre for Radio Astronomy were observing the distant galaxy cluster Ophiuchus when they detected a huge explosion at the center of a supermassive black hole, approximately 390 million light-years from Earth. According to scientists, the explosion released five times more energy than the big bang, Science Daily reported.
In fact, the explosion was so massive that it blew a hole in the cluster plasma (super-heated gas) surrounding the supermassive black hole and also broke the previous record-holder—a cluster known by the designation MS 0735+74.
One author of the study, Dr. Simona Giacintucci who works at the Naval Research Laboratory in the U.S., compared the explosion to the eruption of Mount St. Helens in 1980, in which the top of the mountain was completely blown off.
“The difference is that you could fit 15 Milky Way galaxies in a row into the crater this eruption punched into the cluster’s hot gas,” she said.
X-ray telescopes previously detected a hole in the black hole’s cluster plasma, but astronomers originally discarded the theory that it could have been caused by an energetic explosion because the outburst was believed to be too massive.
“People were skeptical because the size of outburst,” Johnston-Hollitt said. “But it really is that. The Universe is a weird place.”
“This object was actually observed with the Chandra X-ray telescope by a previous team and they saw this bubble in the hot X-ray plasma in the centre of this galaxy cluster, and they said, ‘Well, this can’t be from one of these energetic outputs because it would be enormous; the scale would be unthinkable’. So, they dismissed that possibility,” explained Prof Johnston-Hollitt, who directs the MWA. “But we went back and we observed with low-frequency radio telescopes and discovered that this cavity is filled with radio plasma.”
The scientists realized what they discovered when they observed the Ophiuchus cluster with radio telescopes. Then they saw that the radio data matched the x-ray data, confirming a gigantic expulsion of energy from the cluster.
In total, four telescopes were used to detect and confirm the eruption. Those instruments were NASA’s X-ray Observatory, ESA’s XMM-Newton, the Murchison Widefield Array (MWA) in Western Australia, and the Giant Metrewave Radio Telescope (GMRT) in India.
Johnston-Hollitt, who directs the MWA, compared their discovery to archeologists uncovering the first dinosaur bones. She further stated that with new tools like low-frequency radio telescopes, astronomers can “dig” deeper into space and uncover unusual discoveries like this which teach us about the universe and its history.
Johnston-Hollitt also pointed out that studying the universe at different wavelengths will continue to uncover never-before-seen phenomenas like this one.
“We made this discovery with Phase 1 of the MWA, when the telescope had 2048 antennas pointed towards the sky,” she said.
“We’re soon going to be gathering observations with 4096 antennas, which should be ten times more sensitive. I think that’s pretty exciting.”
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/06/2020 – 19:45 - Another 'Nightmare At Sea': 21 Cruise Ship Passengers & Crew Off San Francisco Test Positive For Covid-19
Another ‘Nightmare At Sea’: 21 Cruise Ship Passengers & Crew Off San Francisco Test Positive For Covid-19
Update (1830ET): As state and federal officials scramble to find a place for the ‘Grand Princess’ cruise ship to dock, Vice President Pence has announced Friday afternoon that 21 people aboard the Grand Princess – 19 crew and 2 passengers – have tested positive for Covid-19.
BREAKING! 21 tests out of 46 have tested POSITIVE for the coronavirus… for people on board the Grand Princess which is 50 miles off the coast of Northern California. 1 test is inconclusive.
— Kate Larsen (@KateABC7) March 6, 2020
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24 tested negative.
BREAKING: 21 people on Grand Princess cruise ship docked off the California coast tested positive for coronavirus, including 19 crew members and two passengers, Vice Pres. Mike Pence says. 24 people tested negative. https://t.co/uktXUEaeda pic.twitter.com/lWinXTb4QV
— ABC News (@ABC) March 6, 2020
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The testing is ongoing. Between crew and passengers, there are more than 3,500 people aboard the ship.
During an interview shortly before the numbers were announced, President Trump said he wanted the passengers to remain on the ship because he doesn’t want to see the total US case numbers ‘double’ as soon as it docks.
“I like the numbers being where they are. I don’t need to have the numbers double because of one ship” — Trump explains that he doesn’t want to let people off the Grand Princess cruise ship because he doesn’t want the number of coronavirus cases in the country to go up pic.twitter.com/ELhZDjiZW9
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 6, 2020
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* * *
It’s like the world’s most horrifying case of de ja vu. A cruise ship carrying 3,500 passengers and crew (2,700 passengers, roughly 800 crew) is floating listlessly in the waters off San Francisco after Cali Gov. Gavin Newsom barred it from docking in the Bay Area city, which reported its first two “presumptive” cases just last night.
California officials on Thursday confirmed that four others who traveled during a previous voyage of the ship have been sickened, and another passenger died in California, becoming the first US death outside the Seattle area earlier this week. The 71-year-old man from Sacramento was said to have had other underlying health issues. Two of the four passengers mentioned above are among the patients who have been hospitalized with the virus in Northern California.
The other two have been asked to self-quarantine at home.
A military helicopter delivered test kits to the ship on Thursday after reports claimed 35 passengers had shown suspicious symptoms. Newsom has said he won’t allow the ship to dock until its passengers have all been “properly assessed.” As of last night, officials had identified 100 people as priorities for testing, and as President Trump said during a press conference Friday morning as he signed the $8.3 billion aid package into law, people are being tested “as we speak.” The results from the first batch of tests are expected Friday afternoon.
Another American passenger who traveled with the other five during the prior voyage in question told the BBC that she and her husband had fallen ill after returning home, but hadn’t given it much thought until reading about the passenger who died. The two complained that they “couldn’t get a straight answer” about how to get tested.
“They’re telling us to stay home, but nobody told me until yesterday to stay home,” she said.
“We were in Sacramento, we were in Martinez, we were in Oakland. We took a train home from the cruise. I really hope that we’re negative so nobody got infected.”
Of course, the cruise ship situation immediately brings to mind the ‘Diamond Princess’, another ship, owned by the same Carnival Cruise subsidiary, that was for weeks home to the largest outbreak outside China, eventually, just over 700 cases were confirmed among its passengers and crew, and several governments, including the US, evacuated citizens from a quarantine overseen by the Japanese government. Six people eventually died. Several passengers have died, and the Japanese and the State Department have been criticized over their handling of the situation.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/06/2020 – 19:24
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