May 18

Today’s News 18th May 2021

  • Sweden Records More Than 30K Cases Of Side Effects Tied To COVID Jabs
    Sweden Records More Than 30K Cases Of Side Effects Tied To COVID Jabs

    As Europe pushes ahead with its vaccination program, the Nordic countries are reporting a surge in damaging side effects. In the country, the tally has surpassed 30K with the majority of these reactions reported in patients who received the AstraZeneca jab.

    Sweden’s Medical Products Agency reported that as of last week, the Scandinavian nation had tallied 31,844 reports of adverse reactions linked to its vaccine rollout.

    Sweden presently offers 3 different COVID-19 jabs: Moderna, Pfizer and AstraZeneca, with the latter being the most widely available (while other European states like Germany have sought to offer substitutes to younger patients, who are more vulnerable to dangerous cerebral blood clots, which are a rare – but not unheard of – side effect).

    The number of suspected adverse reactions from the two shots seems relatively small when compared to the 19,961 reports linked to AstraZeneca’s Vaxzevria, while the AstraZeneca shot only accounts for about 26% of the roughly 2.7MM vaccines that have been administered so far in Sweden, but makes up around 63% of the side effects reports.

    Ebba Hallberg, an official with the Medical Products Agency, told Swedish media that it was unusual to receive so many reports of side effects. She added that the tally was likely higher because of public focus on the new vaccines.To head off complaints that many of the incidences of side effects were minor, she said healthcare providers are likely only reporting the more “serious” side effects.

    One Swedish media outlet said the number of complaints filed in just a few months exceeded the number typically filed over 4 years, which underscores the public anxieties about the COVID vaccines.

    In March, Sweden was one of several nations to temporarily suspend the use of the AstraZeneca jab, following reports of abnormal blood clotting in recipients. AstraZeneca, as well as the European Medicines Agency, have insisted that the vaccine is safe after it came under scrutiny.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 05/18/2021 – 02:45

  • Government Scientific Advisors Admit Using "Totalitarian" Fear Tactics To Control People During Pandemic, Report
    Government Scientific Advisors Admit Using “Totalitarian” Fear Tactics To Control People During Pandemic, Report

    Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

    Scientists in the UK working as advisors for the government have expressed regret for using what they now admit to be “unethical” and “totalitarian” methods of instilling fear in the population in order to control behaviour during the pandemic, according to a report.

    The London Telegraph reports the comments made by Members of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Behaviour (SPI-B), a sub-committee of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) the government’s chief scientific advisory group.

    The report quotes a briefing from March 2020, as the first lockdown was decreed, that stated the government should drastically increase “the perceived level of personal threat” that the virus poses because “a substantial number of people still do not feel sufficiently personally threatened”.

    One scientist with the SPI-B admits that “In March [2020] the Government was very worried about compliance and they thought people wouldn’t want to be locked down. There were discussions about fear being needed to encourage compliance, and decisions were made about how to ramp up the fear.”

    The unnamed scientist adds that “The way we have used fear is dystopian.”

    The scientist further confessed that “The use of fear has definitely been ethically questionable. It’s been like a weird experiment. Ultimately, it backfired because people became too scared.”

    Another separate scientist on the subcommittee professed “You could call psychology ‘mind control’. That’s what we do… clearly we try and go about it in a positive way, but it has been used nefariously in the past.”

    Another scientist warned that “We have to be very careful about the authoritarianism that is creeping in,” adding “people use the pandemic to grab power and drive through things that wouldn’t happen otherwise.”

    According to the report, another researcher with the group acknowledged that “Without a vaccine, psychology is your main weapon,” adding that “Psychology has had a really good epidemic, actually.”

    Yet another scientist on the subcommittee stated that they have been “stunned by the weaponisation of behavioural psychology” over the past year, and warned that “psychologists didn’t seem to notice when it stopped being altruistic and became manipulative.”

    “They have too much power and it intoxicates them”, the scientist further warned.

    The comments were collected by author Laura Dodsworth, for her book A State of Fear, out today, that explores the government’s actions during the pandemic.

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    When the Telegraph asked the subcommittee for comment on the findings, SPI-B psychologist Gavin Morgan replied “Clearly, using fear as a means of control is not ethical. Using fear smacks of totalitarianism. It’s not an ethical stance for any modern government.”

    Morgan added that “By nature I am an optimistic person, but all this has given me a more pessimistic view of people.”

    Commenting on the revelations, Conservative Steve Baker, a member of a group of anti-lockdown MPs said “If it is true that the state took the decision to terrify the public to get compliance with rules, that raises extremely serious questions about the type of society we want to become.”

    “Do I fear that Government policy today is playing into the roots of totalitarianism? Yes, of course it is,” Baker urged.

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    The government state of fear continues minute by minute as government ministers are now suggesting that so called ‘freedom day’ in the UK (a situation where the government permits people to have basic rights is not freedom) on June 21st is under threat because a sizeable portion of the population is refusing to take the vaccine:

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    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 05/18/2021 – 02:00

  • "Blood On Your Hands": Erdogan Issues Worst Rebuke To Biden Since Taking Office
    “Blood On Your Hands”: Erdogan Issues Worst Rebuke To Biden Since Taking Office

    Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday blasted the Joe Biden administration for standing idly by while the civilian body count piles up in Gaza after one week of unrelenting Israeli airstrikes. And even more than this Turkey is outraged over new reports that Biden approved a $735 million dollar weapons sale from the United States to Israel.

    “You are writing history with your bloody hands,” Erdogan said in remarks addressed to President Biden. The stinging rebuke came after a meeting with this cabinet over the continuing Gaza crisis. Turkey has long been a staunch supporter of Palestinian rights, though Erdogan’s rule has in recent years seen relations with Israel reach a low-point given the hardline Islamist leanings of his Justice and Development Party. The Hill reports of the massive US weapons sale to Israel that “A majority of the possible sale is of Boeing-made Joint Direct Attack Munitions, equipment that can make unguided bombs dropped from aircraft into guided missiles, the aide confirmed.” 

    “The window for Congress to block this sale is for all intents and purposes closed,” The Hill wrote, also noting outrage among a handful of Democrat progressives.

    Following a meeting with his Cabinet, Erdogan issued a rebuke to the U.S. president, saying:

    “Now, unfortunately, you (Biden) are writing history with your bloody hands with this event (in which) Gaza is being attacked with seriously disproportionate force causing the martyrdom of thousands of people. You have forced us to say this.”

    And specifically on the new reports of Biden-approved weapons sales to the Jewish state, Erdogan scolded further:

    “Today we saw Biden’s signature on weapons sales to Israel,” Erdogan said in reference to US media reports of a new arms shipment approved by the Biden administration.

    “Palestinian territories are awash with persecution, suffering and blood, like many other territories that lost the peace with the end of the Ottomans. And you are supporting that,” Erdogan said.

    This apparently marks the end of previously reported attempts of Erdogan to reach out to the administration, following warmer (despite at times tense) personal relations with Trump, given that Monday’s comments mark the harshest words Erdogan has unleashed on Biden since his January arrival in the White House. 

    After all this, Erdogan apparently offered his vision for peace in the region…

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    But Turkey’s leader also went after some European countries, especially Austria – over reports of the Austrians flying an Israeli flag from a government building. He said Austria is trying to make Muslims “pay the price of their own genocide against the Jews” – a reference to the large number of Austrian Nazis that during WWII helped facilitate the Holocaust there.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 05/18/2021 – 01:15

  • US And Its Allies Try To Split The World In Two
    US And Its Allies Try To Split The World In Two

    Authored by Eric Zuesse via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    America is using its post-WWII position of being the world’s hegemon, so as to compel every other nation either to join them (as a banana republic or vassal nation) or else to become their enemy by destroying them.

    America’s response to the increasing economic success of China and other nations that until recent decades were impoverished former colonies is to organize its own allies – especially the English-speaking countries – to become a totally separate global economic trading and military alliance standing against that “third world” – and thereby force all non-aligned nations to have to either choose to be allied with the United States or else become conquered by the U.S. and its allies. It’s “Us,” or “Them,” all the way. The top “enemies” (the “Them”) are the same countries that America and its allies were against during the anti-communist Cold War, Russia and China, even though Russia is no longer communist, and China has become a mixture between communism and capitalism.

    America has on its side Saudi Arabia, Israel, Qatar, UAE, and all four of the fascist nations during World War II: Germany, Japan, Italy, and Spain — as well as many other nations.

    Russia and China were both allies of the United States during the war against Hitler and his allies, but Franklin Delano Roosevelt had to fight against considerable American support for the fascist powers (overwhelmingly coming from Republicans) during the years before Japan’s Pearl Harbor attack on 7 December 1941. (In fact, on 23 November 1937, Hitler’s agents Kurt von Tippleskirch and Manfred von Killinger, two Barons, were secretly negotiating with top Republicans — including the racist Irénée du Pont — what would have been the Duponts’ second coup-attempt against FDR, but neither attempt succeeded.) As soon as Harry S. Truman (whom the Democratic Party’s billionaires chose to be FDR’s VP in 1944) became President on FDR’s death on 12 April 1945, the alliance with the Soviet Union ended, and the Cold War gelled in Truman’s mind on 25 July 1945 because of advice from General Dwight Eisenhower, whom Truman practically worshipped. On 19 June 1945, Truman wrote to his wife, Bess, “He’s done a whale of a job. They are running him for President, which is O.K. with me. I’d turn it over to him now if I could.” And, on 25 July 1945, Ike told Truman that either the Soviet Union would conquer the world or else America would — and this apparently convinced Truman to go for global empire and to conquer the Soviet Union.

    America’s increasingly used method for conquest is the method that was first done against Iraq starting in 1991: international sanctions, followed by coup-attempts that, if unsuccessful, are then followed by an outright military invasion — with or without U.N. approval. More recently, this stepwise method (sanctions, failed coup, then invasion) is being used against Syria, but America no longer applies its own troops for its invasions, and instead uses hired proxy-forces (mercenaries), such as, in Syria, jihadists who are hired from around the world and paid for by the Sauds, and also uses separatist Kurds are hired who have long wanted to break away from Iraq, Syria, and Turkey in order to establish their own Kurdistan nation, and who are controlled more directly from Washington (since the Sauds don’t control Kurdish forces). America’s troops in Syria train and arm (usually with money being supplied by the royal families of Saudi Arabia and Qatar) the jihadists (who are Al Qaeda-affiliated) and the Kurds.

    Right now, America is using its post-WWII position of being the world’s hegemon or globally dominant nation, so as to, basically, compel every other nation either to join them (as a banana republic or vassal nation) or else to become their enemy by destroying them, as Washington and its allies have done to Syrians, Yemenis, Palestinians, Ukrainians, Venezuelans, Bolivians, Ecuadorans, and, before that, Hondurans, Guatemalans, El Salvadorans, Argentinians, Chileans, Iranians, and many others in what Washington calls “The Free World.” Ideology is no longer the excuse. Now the excuses are “democracy,” “human rights,” “fighting against corruption,” and, of course “national defense” (which likewise was Hitler’s main excuse).

    In other words: America is trying to do everything it can to avoid becoming downgraded to become the world’s #2 nation, in terms of power. America’s billionaires are behind this; America’s Government is controlled by them.

    The best single statement of America’s position is the speech that Barack Obama gave to the graduating cadets at West Point Military Academy on 28 May 2014, saying:

    The United States is and remains the one indispensable nation. That has been true for the century passed and it will be true for the century to come. … Russia’s aggression toward former Soviet states unnerves capitals in Europe, while China’s economic rise and military reach worries its neighbors. From Brazil to India, rising middle classes compete with us, and governments seek a greater say in global forums. … It will be your generation’s task to respond to this new world.

    America “responds” to the rising power of nations that formerly had been colonies, by means of offering them this choice: Join with us, or else be destroyed.

    As the U.S. Establishment presents and promotes this, it is ‘justified’ because only America is “indispensable”: all other nations are “dispensable.” (Hitler, too, felt that way about all other nations — and most Germans endorsed that supremacism then, just like most Americans support it today.) FDR had planned a non-fascist future for the world, but then he died and (because of whom FDR’s successor was) we got a fascist future, instead, and that’s what we have. Mussolini called fascism “corporationism.” And America is more and more corporationist every decade that passes.

    Under the bigoted Hindu-nationalist Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India is now clearly part of the U.S.-UK-led alliance. On 4 March 2021, Munira Lokhandwala headlined “Google Invests Billions in India as Modi and Allies Stage Corporate Takeover of Agriculture” and reported that

    In particular, Google’s multi-billion dollar investment in the telecommunications company owned by oil and gas billionaire Mukesh Ambani shows how US Big Tech will stop at nothing to make a bigger profit, even if this includes legitimizing a key supporter of the authoritarian-leaning government that is now a target of mass revolt. Ambani is India’s richest man and a strong corporate ally to BJP leadership, perceived by many as a major beneficiary of the hated agricultural reforms.

    In September 2020, the Indian Parliament approved the Indian Agriculture Acts of 2020, also known as the “Farm Bills.” In response, Indian farmers who opposed these bills launched one of the largest protests and series of cross-sectoral strikes that the world has ever seen.

    It’s estimated that over 250 million people have participated in protests against the passage of these bills that Indian farmers see as another phase in the continued attack on their livelihoods and an attempt to deregulate the farming industry to allow for greater private-sector control of food distribution. These changes would favor large corporations like Ambani’s Reliance Industries, who would thrive under the free market conditions that these Farm Bills would create.

    India, in the Rhodesist plan, would be a major counter-weight to China.

    Japan is another. On 23 April 2021, Craig Mark bannered “From Five Eyes To Six? Japan’s Push To Join The West’s Intelligence Alliance”, and he reported that

    As tensions with China continue to grow, Japan is making moves to join the “Five Eyes” intelligence-sharing alliance. This week, Japan’s ambassador to Australia, Shingo Yamagami, told The Sydney Morning Herald he was “optimistic” about his country coming on board. “[I] would like to see this idea become reality in the near future.”

    This comes as New Zealand voices its concerns over using the Five Eyes process to pressure China.

    What is this spy alliance? And what are the benefits and risks to bringing Japan on board?

    What is the Five Eyes?

    Beginning as an intelligence exchange agreement between the United States and United Kingdom in 1943, it formally became the UKUSA Agreement in 1946. The agreement then extended to Canada in 1948, and Australia and New Zealand in 1956.

    UK has gotten Japan’s Ambassador to Australia to assist Australia to pressure progressive New Zealand to remain in the Rhodesist alliance and thereby help to bring Japan into the Rhodesist core as being the first-ever non-English-speaking country to be admitted into the Rhodes-core (and thereby turn the “Five Eyes” into six). That would achieve what David Rockefeller and his sidekick Zbig Brzezinski (who was a member of Poland’s nobility) had been attempting to do by means of their Trilateral Commission, which was intended to expand beyond the Bilderberg group of NATO countries so as to include also Japan.

    On 30 April 2021, the geostrategic analyst Alexander Mercouris headlined a video “Blinken Goes To Ukraine With A Tough Message For Zelensky” and explained that because Putin recently established “red lines” that would provoke a direct military conflict between Russia and the United States if violated by the U.S., Biden has refocused America’s top target to be conquered as being no longer Russia but instead now China. Mercouris says that Ukraine’s U.S.-stooge President Volodmyr Zelensky will probably now be forced to stop threatening to invade the breakaway formerly Ukrainian Donbas region.

    However, whereas the U.S. aristocracy’s main medium-term objective is to retain control over Ukraine so as to become enabled to blitz-launch missiles from there to eliminate Moscow’s ability to retaliate against America’s first-strike hit (the U.S. alliance’s updated version of the Nazis’ Operation Barbarossa), the UK’s main medium-term objective is for the U.S.-UK-Saud-Qatar alliance to arm and train jihadists and separatist Kurds to conquer Syria so that the Sauds will control that country. The long-term objective, both of America’s and UK’s aristocrats, is their shared dictatorship over all nations.

    On 30 April 2021, the international investigative journalist Finian Cunningham interviewed at Strategic Culture the former UK Ambassador to Syria, the astoundingly courageous Peter Ford, and headlined “Syria Regime Change Still on Western Agenda – Ex-Ambassador Peter Ford”. This whistleblowing former UK Ambassador opened his comments by saying:

    The Western powers are like dogs with an old bone on the subject of alleged use of chemical weapons in Syria. There is no meat on it but they continue to gnaw away. Why? Because the trope that “Assad gasses his own people” has become a cornerstone of the whole Western propaganda narrative on Syria. Without it, justifying the cruel economic war on Syria, largely through sanctions, would be harder to justify. And with military efforts at regime change having failed, economic warfare is now the last hope for the Western powers of destabilizing Syria enough to topple the government. For this strategy to work the Western powers are more than ready to undermine the credibility of the OPCW by abusing their ability to manipulate it in the Syrian context.

    The interview closed with:

    Question: Finally, Syria is holding presidential elections on May 26 in which incumbent Bashar al-Assad is running for re-election. The Western powers disparage Syria as an “undemocratic regime”. How do you view Syria’s polity? Is Assad likely to win re-election?

    Peter Ford: Of course Assad will win and of course the Western powers will try to disparage his victory. But I can state with certainty that if you could offer the Conservative party in Britain a guarantee of achieving in the next general election anything anywhere near Assad’s genuine level of support, albeit some of it reluctant from a war-weary people, the Tories would bite your hand off for such an electoral gain. Much of the current Western propaganda effort against Syria is geared at trying to spoil Assad’s victory and deny it legitimacy. But inside Syria itself, the people will see the election as setting the seal on 10 years of struggle, and Assad will emerge strengthened as he faces the next phase in the Western war on Syria.

    Furthermore, just the same as the U.S. and their allies were funding, training, and arming jihadists (technically called “Salafist Muslims”) in order to bring about regime-change in Syria, they’re doing the very same thing in order to bring about regime-change in China — in that instance by propagandizing ‘human rights’ for Uyghur Chinese who have been indoctrinated with the Sauds’ extremist-Sunni variant of the Islamic faith (Salafism). (Many of those Salafists, because of their Turkic culture, have recently become more favorable to Turkey than to Saudi Arabia, and therefore on 18 July 2019, Reuters headlined “Saudi Arabia defends letter backing China’s Xinjiang policy”, and reported that the Sauds “defended signing a letter along with 36 other countries in support of China’s policies in its western region of Xinjiang, where the United Nations says at least 1 million ethnic Uighurs and other Muslims have been detained.” The U.S. and UK were now backing pro-Turkish jihadists, instead of pro-Saudi ones. Turkey is a NATO nation; and, so, the Rhodesists don’t care which brand of jihad they are backing in order to break up, or bring regime-change to, China.)

    So, even if the U.S. regime might be placing Ukraine onto the back burner, the UK regime, apparently, is unwilling to place the conquest of Syria onto its back burner. And, for both American billionaires and UK billionaires, China is unrelentingly in the gunsights of both aristocracies, to conquer. In fact, on 10 April 2021, Strategic Culture issued an editorial, “Ukraine, Taiwan… Two-Prong U.S. Aggression Toward Russia, China”, which noted:

    Biden is advancing the same policy under the previous Trump and Obama administrations of military buildup near China’s territory. This week saw the fourth U.S. guided-missile destroyer passing through the Taiwan Strait since Biden took office. That narrow sea separates the breakaway island from China’s mainland. Beijing has sovereign territorial claim to Taiwan which is recognized by the vast majority of nations, including up until recently the United States under its so-called “One China” policy. Biden, like his predecessor Donald Trump, is deliberately eroding the One China policy by sending delegates to the island on official visits, increasing weapons sales and most provocatively making public declarations that the U.S. will “defend” Taiwan in the event of “an invasion” by Chinese forces.

    Similar to the Ukraine, the Biden administration’s rhetoric and conduct is serving to fuel an ever-more provocative stance by the Taiwanese leaders. This week, a senior official warned that the island’s forces would shoot down Chinese aircraft that approach the territory. This is nothing but a flagrant challenge to China’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. As in the case of the Ukraine and Russia, it is Washington’s words and actions that are inflaming the tensions between Taiwan and China. Yet the Americans accuse others of “aggression” and claim to be providing “defense”.

    The only entity that could possibly stop all this would be the U.S.-created European Union. Either they will turn against their creator, and join with Russia and China against U.S. and UK (which would put an end to the Rhodesist team’s insanity), or there will be World War III (though probably not in the near-term future), in which the U.S. regime will blitz-nuclear attack Russia, though that would destroy the planet.

    If the EU does break away from the U.S., then it will also be able to relocate the U.N. out of NYC to Europe and reform the U.N. in what had been its inventor’s, FDR’s, intention, that the U.N. become the democratic global federation of nations controlling all nuclear and other geostrategic weapons and forces, and that serves as the sole and authoritative executive, legislative, and judicial, authority for all international-relations issues throughout the world, the democratic federal world government. That’s what Truman and Churchill prevented, and what would produce a world that will have no future world wars, no future wars between empires, because there would no longer be any empires, nor any imperialism.

    Either there will be FDR’s intention, or there will be nuclear annihilation. The EU will decide. For the EU to impose FDR’s intention would be for the EU to turn against its creator, which was Truman and all subsequent U.S. Presidents (and their Congresses, which likewise have been controlled by America’s billionaires). However, a likelier alternative would be for some nations to do as UK did and break away from the EU, but for them to do it as UK did not, to realign themselves with Russia, China, and Iran, and away from the U.S. That, too, might prevent WWIII and enable the U.N. to be reformed as FDR had been intending it to be: as the global democratic federal republic and sole source and judge and enforcer of international laws — the post-imperialist world, which FDR had planned for. If FDR’s plan doesn’t happen, then WWIII will happen, and this was the reason why he had been planning the U.N. as he did. But as soon as he died, on 12 April 1945, the billionaires’ agents worked on Truman, who finally, on 25 July 1945 (based on General Eisenhower’s advice), decided to go for America’s global conquest; and, so, the ceaseless string of subversions, coups, and invasions, by the U.S. (the permanent-warfare state), started. The first coup was 1948 in Thailand, in order to install rulers who would let the OSS-CIA skim from the international narcotics traffic so as to supply the needed off-the-books funding for the CIA’s Special Operations.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 05/18/2021 – 00:30

  • Visualizing The History Of Psychedelics, Part 1
    Visualizing The History Of Psychedelics, Part 1

    Due to their counterculture connotations and rigid legal status, psychedelics were once considered a highly stigmatized topic.

    Over the last decade however, a steady stream of groundbreaking research has proven that these powerful substances have the potential to safely treat a wide range of diseases.

    Today, attitudes toward the industry have changed, and capital is flowing- resulting in a market that analysts predict could eventually be worth $100 billion.

    The graphic above from Tryp Therapeutics is the first in a two-part series that explores how psychedelics have evolved over the last 6,000 years.

    From Ancient Antidote to Breakthrough Medicine

    Before we dive into the history of psychedelics, it’s important to understand what they are and how they work.

    Psychedelics are drugs that alter cognitive processes and produce hallucinogenic effects. Broadly speaking, there are two categories that psychedelic substances fall into: entheogens, and synthetic drugs. Entheogenic psychedelics are derived from plants, while synthetic psychedelics are created in a laboratory.

    Here are some of the most well known psychedelic substances explained:

    Certain psychedelics work by binding to serotonin receptors in the brain which produces psychoactive effects. Research suggests that when this happens, the structure of the brain changes—such as the number of connections between neutrons. This means that psychedelics could have the potential to rewire or repair circuits in the brain, hence their reputation for having healing powers.

    Ancient Times

    While the science behind these mind-altering plants is only now beginning to become clear, they have in fact been used in rituals and ceremonies for thousands of years.

    As a result, psychedelic substances have been hugely influential in shaping certain cultures and religions dating back to 4,000 BC. These cultures, particularly in the Americas, learned how to utilize psychoactive plants and mushrooms for medicinal purposes or to reach an altered state of consciousness.

    With that being said, evidence of how psychedelics were used in ancient times is often anecdotal, and therefore widely debated.

    The Prohibition Era

    In the 1800s, scientists and psychiatrists began discovering new kinds of drugs such as psilocybin and subsequently became advocates of psychedelic medicine. Unfortunately, uncontrolled drug use for recreational purposes led to governments across the world debating their legal status, and clamping down on restrictions.

    Within decades, the recreational use of psychedelics undermined promising medical discoveries, and put the future of the industry into question, eventually triggering the War on Drugs.

    An Industry, Reborn

    With these strict legal changes around the world, the psychedelics industry became largely inactive. But today, an explosion of unprecedented research findings surrounding the therapeutic potential of psychedelics has triggered many countries to reassess their decision to criminalize.

    Now, the industry is back, and bigger than ever before. In Part 2 of The History of Psychedelics, we’ll dive into The Psychedelics Renaissance the industry is currently experiencing and discuss the exciting future of this promising sector.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 05/18/2021 – 00:10

  • Liz Cheney: Biden Military Budget 'Too Low' Despite Being Highest Of All Time
    Liz Cheney: Biden Military Budget ‘Too Low’ Despite Being Highest Of All Time

    Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

    President Biden requested a $753 billion military budget for the 2022 fiscal year, which would be the highest of all time. But this number is not enough for Republican hawks in Congress. Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WI) said not increasing the budget by three to five percent would be a “red line” for Republicans. Biden’s budget request would be about a 1.6 percent increase from 2021.

    “In my view, that is a red line, and if the administration is not going to be proposing a budget that meets that requirement, then I think they will need to explain to the American people why they’re unwilling to fund defense at the levels the nation needs,” Cheney said at the McAleese Defense Programs Conference, which was held virtually last week.

    Via AP

    “I would clearly oppose budgets that were below that number, and I think we’re going to have a very healthy debate and discussion about the administration’s proposal because it is coming in significantly below that number,” she said.

    While Cheney might have fallen out of favor with the GOP over her criticisms of Trump and has been removed from her position as party leadership, her opinion on the military budget is still the prevalent view of Republicans in Congress. Leading Republicans on the House Armed Services Committee and the Senate Armed Services Committee have been urging Biden to increase the budget by three to five percent.

    The Pentagon has recently identified China as the top “pacing threat” to the US military, and Beijing is serving as the hawks’ justification to spend more.

    After Biden requested his $753 billion budget, Senators Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Jim Inhofe (R-OK), Marco Rubio (R-FL), Lindsey Graham (R-SC), and Richard Shelby (R-AL) released a joint statement calling for more spending.

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    The statement reads: “President Biden recently said, ‘If we don’t get moving, [China] is going to eat our lunch.’ Today’s budget proposal signals to China that they should set the table.” The senators claimed China “aspires to overtake America as the world’s dominant superpower.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/17/2021 – 23:50

  • Illinois Jeep Factory Set To Lay Off 1,600 Workers Amid Global Semiconductor Shortage
    Illinois Jeep Factory Set To Lay Off 1,600 Workers Amid Global Semiconductor Shortage

    A Jeep Cherokee factory is cutting 1,600 jobs in Northern Illinois as the auto industry continues to struggle with the global shortage of semiconductors.

    The U.S. arm of Stellantis announced this week is was going to cut one of its two work shifts at the Belvidere Assembly Plant as of July 26. 1,641 workers could be affected, a local NBC affiliate reported over the weekend. 

    Company spokeswoman Jodi Tinson claimed that the company was trying to “balance sales with production,” and that the factory’s situation “has been further exacerbated by the unprecedented global microchip shortage.”

    This stands at odds with comments made by the company’s CFO earlier this month, when we reported that Chief Financial Officer Richard Palmer said the semi shortage impact would be higher in Q2, but also said it “is still very controlled”.

    The plant has been idled since late March, the report notes. Its re-opening has been delayed and isn’t expected until “at least” later this month. 

    Recall, we last wrote about Stellantis at the beginning of May, after the auto maker said there was “no end in sight” to the ongoing semi chip shortage. 

    The company said in its report earlier this month that it lost production of 190,000 vehicles due to the shortage. The world’s fourth largest carmaker said that 8 of its 44 plants were affected by the shortage, ultimately resulting in reductions in shifts and slowing, or shuttering, of vehicle lines. 

    The company had been making changes to its lineup, including changing the dashboard of the Peugeot 308, to try and adapt to the crisis. 

    “We don’t have great visibility. As such it would be imprudent to assume the issue is going to go away,” Palmer continued, sounding less like the issue is “still very controlled”. 

    Recall, Intel’s CEO, speaking on 60 Minutes earlier this month, said: “We have a couple of years until we catch up to this surging demand across every aspect of the business.” Days prior, we wrote that Morgan Stanley had also suggested the shortage could continue “well into 2022”. 

    Stellantis was created out of the merger of Fiat Chrysler Automobiles and PSA Peugeot.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/17/2021 – 23:30

  • Common Sense Wins As Supreme Court Backs Energy Companies Over Baltimore In Climate Case
    Common Sense Wins As Supreme Court Backs Energy Companies Over Baltimore In Climate Case

    Via The Federalist Papers,

    The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday ruled in favor of BP PLC, Chevron Corp, Exxon Mobil Corp, Royal Dutch Shell PLC and other energy companies contesting a lawsuit filed by the city of Baltimore seeking monetary damages from them due to costs caused by global climate change.

    The 7-1 ruling, authored by conservative Justice Neil Gorsuch, came on a technical legal issue that could help the companies in their effort to have the case heard in federal court, as they would prefer, instead of state court, which the city favors as it is seen as a more amenable venue.

    The high court decided that the Richmond, Virginia-based 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals did not correctly analyze whether the case could be heard in federal court.

    The Democratic-governed Maryland city’s lawsuit targeted 21 U.S. and foreign energy companies that extract, produce, distribute or sell fossil fuels, arguing that their activities contribute to emissions of carbon dioxide and other so-called greenhouse gases linked to climate change. An important port city, Baltimore noted that it is vulnerable to sea-level rise and flooding driven by climate change.

    The Supreme Court’s ruling could affect around a dozen similar lawsuits brought by various U.S. states, cities and counties.

    Liberal Justice Sonia Sotomayor dissented in the ruling. Conservative Justice Samuel Alito, did not participate in the case, likely because he owns stocks in two oil companies involved in the litigation.

    The legal question concerned a provision of U.S. law that puts limits on appeals courts reviewing decisions by federal district court judges to remand a case to state court. The companies have said that in this instance the 4th Circuit had broad scope to review a district court’s decision because of a provision that permits appeals of such rulings when a case directly concerns federal officials or government entities.

    The energy companies have argued that energy production is an inherently federal issue, meaning the case should be heard in federal court. Greenhouse gas emissions that cross state and international lines are likewise an issue that cannot be addressed under state laws, the companies added.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/17/2021 – 23:10

  • India Sees Cases Slow As Outbreak Spills Into Nepal; Regional Mutant Arrives In US
    India Sees Cases Slow As Outbreak Spills Into Nepal; Regional Mutant Arrives In US

    It finally looks like India’s brutal second wave of COVID-19 is easing, as cases again slowed on Monday, while daily deaths remained near record highs. New cases dropped below 300K on Monday, to 281,386, while deaths remained stubbornly above 4K at 4,106. In total, India has counted 24,965,463 cases (with many more likely uncounted) and 274, 390 deaths.

    Vaccinations, meanwhile, have lagged with just 182M doses administered across the country of 1.4 billion.

    Source: Johns Hopkins

    However, there’s a new threat on the horizon that could cripple India’s health-care system at what is probably its most vulnerable moment: a cyclone called Cyclone Tauktae, which is hammering the western part of the country, including drenching the financial capital of Mumbai.

    In Gujarat, where on Sunday and overnight nearly 150,000 people from 17 districts were evacuated, all Covid-19 patients in hospitals with five kilometres of the coast were also moved. In some places, to ensure that hospitals are not faced with power outages, 1,383 back-up generators have been installed, according to local officials.

    Virus safety protocols such as wearing masks, social distancing and the use of sanitisers would be observed in the shelters for evacuees, officials added.

    Data released Monday showed new cases in Mumbai have declined 70% in the past week, from 11,000 daily cases to fewer than 2,000 in Mumbai.

    Across India, active cases number more than 3.6 million, meaning hospitals are still swamped by patients.

    Izhaar Hussain Shaikh, an ambulance driver in Mumbai, drove about 70 patients to the hospital last month. Two weeks into May, he’d carried only 10 patients, according to Newsweek. “We used to be so busy before, we didn’t even have time to eat.”

    Meanwhile, more signs that India’s outbreak is spreading beyond its borders emerged as the worsening outbreak in neighboring Nepal made headlines in the West. NBC News reported that cases have exploded in Nepal in recent weeks, which is one reason why China installed a border “line” at the summit of Mt Everest to warn mountaineers to stay out of China.

    Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, expressed worry about the unfolding crisis.

    “India remains hugely concerning,” he said at a news briefing. “But it’s not only India that has emergency needs. Nepal, Sri Lanka, Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand and Egypt are just some of the countries that are dealing with spikes in cases and hospitalizations.”

    Others warned that the situation in Nepal might worsen in the coming days as some 9K cases are reported daily, while many more likely go undiagnosed.

    “We are in the initial phase,” said Sushila Pandit, a Nepalese aid worker with Mercy Corps, an international nongovernmental aid group. “I think the condition will be more critical in the the coming days.”

    Experts in Europe warned last week that mutant strain known as B.1.617 and some of its variants had been traced to parts of Europe and the UK. Well on Monday, scientists warned that B.1.617 had officially been tracked to the US, according to USA Today.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/17/2021 – 22:50

  • The Corrupted January 6 Commission
    The Corrupted January 6 Commission

    Authored by Technofog via The Reactionary,

    Late last week, House Democrats unveiled their Bill to “establish the National Commission to Investigate the January 6 Attack on the United States Capitol Complex.”

    We previously warned about the Democrats’ roadmap to use their investigative authority to further their political goals. We advised that Democrats make the investigation broad enough to subpoena records from conservative groups and websites – and their investors. We warned that they would seek donor lists and personal communications from those having little to do with the events on January 6.

    The Democrats’ Bill – which elevates the January 6 “riot” to a “domestic terrorist attack on the Capitol” – proves us right.

    The Bill establishes a Commission of 10 members, five appointed by Democrats and five appointed by Republicans. It will be chaired by a Democrat nominee.

    The Commission will have powers to:

    “Issue subpoenas requiring the attendance and testimony of witnesses and the production of evidence relating to any matter which the Commission is empowered to investigate.”

    From that language we look to what the Commission is “empowered to investigate.” This power is extremely broad. And this is where the trouble lies. It includes:

    “The facts and causes relating to the January 6, 2021 domestic terrorist attack upon the United States Capitol Complex.”

    “The influencing factors that fomented such attack on American representative democracy while engaging in a constitutional process.”

    The Danger

    The dangerous part about all this is that the subpoena power is limited to the imagination of the Democrat appointees. (We assume the likelihood that at least one Republican member of the Committee will go along with anything the Democrats want, thus giving them majority vote for a subpoena.)

    We also note that the Commission is given the power to obtain information from “the intelligence community” to further its investigation.

    We cannot stress strongly enough the danger of such powers. The House Democrats – those who have leaked false intelligence to the press and lied to the public about the Carter Page FISA applications – will have access, via their appointees, to raw intelligence data. Their history shows they will not use this information responsibly.

    All this just proves that the Commission will be their instrument to inflict massive political harm on the Right. Remember Pelosi’s occupation of the Capitol?

    As I said on March 5, 2021:

    “If you question the seriousness of the game they’re playing, just look at the security around the Capitol. Currently, over 5,000 National Guard troops, along with fencing and razor wire, protect against a non-existent threat. The occupation is theater to make January 6 more than what it was to justify what is to come.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/17/2021 – 22:30

  • World Economic Forum Cancels Annual Meeting After Moving It To Singapore
    World Economic Forum Cancels Annual Meeting After Moving It To Singapore

    After initially rescheduling the forum from May to the late-summer months, the World Economic Forum has decided to cancel its annual gathering of powerhouses in the worlds of markets, business and politics, which is usually held in Davos, Switzerland, but had been moved to Singapore in the face of the coronavirus, according to Bloomberg. 

    Back in February, the WEF announced that it would delay the week-long event until August, hoping that would give it enough time. But as India’s COVID-19 outbreak continues to spill across Asia, while a mutant strain first identified in India has finally been traced to the US.

    As Brits travel on their first international flights in more than a year, the WEF announced Monday that it would cancel its annual meeting in Singapore as the city-state sees a jump in COVID-19 cases.

    Singapore’s new restrictions announced over the weekend include requiring all primary, secondary and junior colleges to shift to full home-based learning from Wednesday until the end of the school year later this month.

    This comes after health authorities in the city-state confirmed 38 locally transmitted cases, the highest daily number since mid-September, with 17 currently unlinked. The cases included four children linked to a cluster at a tuition center.

    In recent years, the WEF and its attendees have taken up the twin causes of climate change and economic inequality (which are linked, scholars say, because the ‘global south’ will bear the brunt of the negative impact of climate, or at least that’s what they say). Which is ironic, since the best thing the WEF could possibly do to lower carbon emissions would be to cancel the annual event, which draws legions of private jets ferrying the global elite.

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    In other bad news for Singapore, a travel bubble between Hong Kong and Singapore that was due to start on May 26 has been postponed for a second time, according to officials on Monday, as new COVID cases spiked, derailing hopes for quarantine-free travel.

    Singapore, one of Asia’s trade and financial hubs with a tiny population of 5.7 million people, had until recently been reporting almost zero or single-digit new COVID cases until just last week.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/17/2021 – 22:10

  • Newsom Turns To Bribery, Opens Up Big Bag Of Goodies To Californians In Bid To Head-Off Recall
    Newsom Turns To Bribery, Opens Up Big Bag Of Goodies To Californians In Bid To Head-Off Recall

    Authored by Monica Showalter via AmericanThinker.com,

    Politicians in trouble frequently wheel out the freebies ahead of a tough election.

    California’s Gov. Gavin Newsom, however, is taking it to 11.

    Seems, he’s not all that confident that Democrats will be able to rig him into victory to keep him in office in this year’s coming recall referendum on him. Internals must be horrible.

    Which is why he’s now holding out monster goodie bag to angry voters as a last-ditch bribe to secure their votes.

    According to National Review:

    This week, Newsom began a statewide tour to brag about a $75.7 billion state “surplus” that is burning a hole in his recall jeans. That “surplus” alone is larger than the total expenditures of 44 other states in 2020. Combining substantial capital-gains revenues from the bank accounts of Big Tech billionaires and an embarrassing amount of federal stimulus funds, to the tune of $371 billion in total payments, the governor is taking credit for the windfall. Promising to hand out wads of cash and pay off overdue rent and utility bills while hoping middle-class voters will forget Newsom’s cavalier statewide lockdowns over the past year reeks of bribery.

    It comes from a one-time slush fund surplus coming from the federal government, courtesy of Joe Biden and his congressional Democrats, and ironically, as Sacramento legislators are proposing tax hikes on normal taxpayers. Nice.

    But he’s got a recall referendum coming in November, so like Hugo Chavez, he’s wheeling out the free washing machines and bags of beans, as Hugo and other corrupt Latin autocrats used to do to “win” elections.

    Here’s Newsom’s own tweet advertising the crowd-pleasers he’s holding out to voters; the electoral junk food:

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    High as this spending is, and universal as these solutions are, they are nothing but Band-Aids onto the festering economic wounds he’s inflicted on the state last year, through high taxes, lockdowns, and police defundings, all problems which now require tourniquets.

    Anybody think the billions for the homeless he’s proposing are actually going to fix homelessness in this state? It should employ a lot of bureaucrats and probably backfill some bloated public pensions, as has been the story in the past.

    And where the heck is he going to get the permits to build all these free houses for the homeless in any case, given the state’s other NIMBY-inspired laws. Malibu?

    That’s just one problem, and there are a ton of others:

    Number one, it’s unsustainable. According to the Associated Press:

    But it is a budget on the edge. Nearly all of the $100 billion in extra money is a one-time surplus, meaning it won’t be available next year. Newsom and the Legislature have already approved a massive tax cut for small businesses that will reduce revenues by more than $6 billion over the next five years.

    In the years to come, budget officials predict the state’s revenue will grow slightly while its expenses keep increasing. For now, they say the two sides of the budget will balance and not cause a deficit. But that leaves no room for error in a time when the pandemic has made it impossible to predict the future.

    It’s enough for Keely Martin Bosler, Newsom’s budget director, to remark on “how incredibly uncertain things continue to be.”

    He’s basically proposing to spend now, get people addicted to freebie programs, and then either cut them off cold when the cash runs out, or drive the state into bankruptcy. Taxes, of course, already the nation’s highest, will go into the stratosphere.

    Number two, it sends terrible messages. The guy who practically killed himself in the pandemic to pay his rent after losing his job, maybe defaulting on his other bills in the process and paying that price through his credit rating, gets nothing. The deadbeat who didn’t pay even though he could pay, or who didn’t apply for otherwise free federal aid, taking advantage of the eviction moratorium instead, gets his back rent paid. And who knows if the landlords get paid. Based on Newsom’s tweet, he might just pass a law or issue an executive action declaring that nobody needs to pay and let the landlords eat the losses. The unpaid traffic fines, meanwhile, giving the nominally poor a pass for speeding, bad driving, endangering others, expired registrations, parking in the middle of the road, taking up handicapped spaces, parking in red fire zones, any number of nightmare violations, get wiped out, while once again, the guy who moved heaven and earth to pay his parking fines at the expense of food or something, gets the news from Newsom that he’s a sucker. The whole thing smacks of a program to increase contempt for rule of law. After all, if all you have to do is wait for relief from Newsom, same as if you’re waiting for the next subway to stop, why pay anything at all?

    Number three, there’s a heckuva lot that he didn’t mention. California is flooded with drug-addicted homeless, now seeping into ordinarily placid middle-class areas now. Yesterday I tried to cross a highway pedestrian bridge in San Diego into a poorer neighborhood to buy some fresh vegetables and was blocked at the entrance by three homeless people doing drugs together right in that pedestrian walkway, blocking it. Passing them by was so close that any of them could have pulled a knife on me and I went home by a longer way that involved a chancy highway underpass, which also could have been a home to bums, given that it was trash-strewn, meaning, it probably was at some point. I didn’t even call the cops, given the knowledge that they aren’t enforcing anything anymore. My conclusion from that is that it’s going to get worse, way worse, spilling into the placid, previously crime-free areas and Newsom has no intention of backing up the police to enforce this very necessary quality of life measure for the law-abiding taxpayers who pay his big-budget bills.

    Newsom also didn’t mention his big plan for free health care for elderly illegal aliens over the age of 60. Elderly people have the biggest of all medical bills, and rest assured, now with Joe Biden’s border surge on, the dinner triangle has just been rung for the nation’s illegals to bring in their ailing elderly relatives because the ride is now free. If you were a citizen of someplace like Honduras and heard this, and you will, you’d be a fool not to. California’s Gov. Gray Davis was fired by voters in a recall referendum back in 2003 over the issuing of drivers’ licenses to illegals. You can see why Newsom didn’t quite put that as a selling point to voters in his tweet. But rest assured, he’s got special interests who harvest ballots who are very, very happy with him.

    Number four, there’s a heckuva lot that he ought to be spending money on, yet he refuses to do. Where is the cash for more police to remove the riff-raff and criminal element that is plaguing both rich and poor areas now throughout California’s cities and making life unlivable? Where are the tax cuts in this highest-of-all high tax states? He considers that “his” money, so no tax cuts of any significance for the tax-battered. What’s he doing about monster health care costs for those who actually pay? Nothing, of course. Where is the housing and land-policy reform, which is keeping new housing from being built, and contributing to this state’s monster real estate bubble, which is pricing ordinary families out of homes? Price controls create shortages, Gav. And of course, this fool is clueless.

    It’s such a bad picture, so cynical, so Peronist, (or just see that 1999 Mexican masterpiece movie “Herod’s Law” about the “crumbling, rotting, 70-year old regime of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI)” as one reviewer put it, to get a whiff) that one hopes that California’s voters might just see through it. The fact that Newsom’s doing this is proof, all by itself, that he’s unfit to be governor.

    Governors in this state, as National Review notes, are historically balancing elements who can say ‘no’ to spendthrift legislators, Jerry Brown before him being one example. The fact that Newsom also wrecked the state’s economy through his fanatic lockdowns while red-state governors showed real judgment and leadership in doing all they could to keep their state’s economies open is another strike against this clown. Now we have this budget-bankrupting spendfest to put the cherry on top of his rotten cake. He’s so bad even Caitlyn Jenner looks like a better potential governor than Newsom is.

    Throw him out.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/17/2021 – 21:50

  • One Bank Spots "A Huge Worry On The Horizon"
    One Bank Spots “A Huge Worry On The Horizon”

    The big banks may be dismissing the current wave of soaring prices, which as we noted previously has been driven mostly economic reopening categories such as soaring used car prices where a pandemic-induced demand surge has run headfirst into temporary shortages, production bottlenecks, and supply chain disruptions…

    … but they are increasingly zeroing in on what may well be the source of non-transitory inflation over the coming years. Just last night, Goldman highlighted three such risks for longer-term inflation pressures including:

    • A sharper rise in wage growth: The first risk is that wage growth could rise to a much faster pace than reached last cycle if current signs of worker shortages and labor market tightness prove more persistent than many expect. The starting point for wage growth is unusually high for an economy emerging from a recession.
    • A multi-year boom in home prices boosts rent inflation: The second risk is that a multiyear boom in US home prices could drive shelter inflation much higher.
    • Temporary price spikes raise inflation expectations substantially: The third risk is that the current price spikes caused by temporary pandemic effects could have a more lasting impact if they raise long-term inflation expectations substantially (i.e. transitory proves to be non-transitory). Last week brought hints in this direction, including a 0.4% jump in the University of Michigan’s measure of long-term household inflation expectations, a modest increase in long-term inflation expectations in the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and further increases in market-implied inflation compensation.

    Of these three, Goldman is most concerned about the second one, and dedicated a separate research report (discussed here) precisely about the risk of sharply higher home prices.

    In a report from Goldman’s economists, the bank warned that “a national housing shortage will fuel substantial home price appreciation for at least a couple more years.” Goldman now expects that shelter inflation is likely to surge to 3.8% YoY by end-2022 — boosting core PCE by about 0.3% relative to today — and to exceed 4% in 2023 (!), a higher rate than at any point in the prior economic cycle. At that point anyone countering that (hyper)inflation is transitory will be laughed right out of the room.

    In other words, Goldman just predicted that by 2024 home prices will be rising at a pace far faster than the widely recognized 2006-2007 housing bubble, and that the spillover from this surge in prices will make the coming hyperinflation anything but transitory.

    We bring this up again because this morning another prominent bank analyst – Deutsche Bank’s chief credit strategist Jim Reid – published a similar note of caution regarding soaring home prices.

    Reid begins with the familiar background: “around many parts of the world housing markets have surged during the pandemic. Huge stimulus, low and suppressed interest rates, government tax incentives, demand for more space in the new world, and limited supply have created a boom that surely few could have predicted when the pandemic started.“

    Next, the credit strategist shows the US housing boom in perspective with his Monday Chart of the Day…

    … and writes that real home prices were the same in 1999 as they were in 1894. So, remarkably, besides being a good inflation hedge, home prices are little besides having been range bound around inflation for over 100 years. However, over the next 7 years they rose over 60% inflation adjusted before slumping 35% in the next 6 years when the housing bubble burst.

    Well, second time may be the charm because from these lows, they are now back up nearly 55% and less than 1% off their all-time real adjusted highs and over 10% above pre-pandemic levels. Indeed, as Reid predicts, they will probably hit record real adjusted highs when the latest data is released next week (they already have according to Black Knight and other pricing services).

    Reid’s ominous conclusion is that the recent surge in home prices “is nearly on the same national scale as it was in the lead-up to the US housing bust that precipitated the GFC”, and he concludes rhetorically: “a new paradigm or a huge worry on the horizon?”

    Spoiler alert: it’s the latter.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/17/2021 – 21:30

  • Iran Preps Return To Oil Market As Vienna Talks "Within Reach" Of Agreement
    Iran Preps Return To Oil Market As Vienna Talks “Within Reach” Of Agreement

    US and Iranian diplomats which are still engaged in ongoing ‘indirect’ negotiations via intermediaries in Vienna (now over a month in) have signaled that a major nuclear agreement is now “within reach” – and now as Bloomberg reports, “Iran is preparing to ramp up global oil sales as talks to lift U.S. sanctions show signs of progress.”

    Following years of Trump-imposed biting sanctions which particularly targeted Iran’s oil exports, and with in some cases Iranian tankers even being seized, the Islamic Republic is actively prepping to get its global exports flowing once again. “State-controlled National Iranian Oil Co. has been priming oil fields — and customer relationships — so it can increase exports if an accord is clinched, officials said,” Bloomberg continues. “Under the most optimistic estimates, the country could return to pre-sanctions production of almost 4 million barrels a day in as little as three months. It could also tap a flotilla’s worth of oil that’s hoarded away in storage.”

    However, even with such positive momentum and optimism on both sides, it remains that the Trump administration “boxed-in” Biden in terms of what can and can’t be done rapidly. At issue is the “mine field” of sanctions and punitive actions slapped on over 700 entities and officials. Most notably this includes two dozen financial institutions at the heart of which is Iran’s central bank.

    This had also been designed to scare off even willing buyers, given the complex labyrinth of legal hurdles related to shipping insurance and other red tape. The Iranians are said to be expectant of an extended gradual process of undoing sanctions, yet hardliners and the Ayatollah himself have warned their patience will soon run out, and that talks cannot “drag on”. 

    Over the weekend Vienna talks continued without pause despite a fierce bombing campaign by Israel on Gaza reaching the end of a week, leaving about 200 Palestinians in the strip dead, and thousands wounded.

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    There have been growing fears that the outbreak of fighting in Gaza, which saw Hamas and Islamic Jihad launch some 2,000 total rockets into Israel, killing ten Israel civilians, could derail the attempts to restore the JCPOA nuclear deal. Tel Aviv has consistently blamed Iran for supporting and supplying Hamas with its sizable missile stockpile. 

    Netanyahu as well as Mossad chief Yossi Cohen have lately personally attempted to intervene with the Biden White House, arguing that restoration of a “bad deal” will all but assure that Iran acquires nukes. Israel has also gone so far as to allegedly bomb and sabotage Iranian tankers delivering oil and fuel to its ally Syria. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/17/2021 – 21:10

  • Welcome To The DarkSide: Why The Biden Administration Will Not Define The Pipeline Attack As Terrorism
    Welcome To The DarkSide: Why The Biden Administration Will Not Define The Pipeline Attack As Terrorism

    Authored by Jonathan Turley,

    Below is my column on the recent Colonial Pipeline attack. President Joe Biden and his Administration (as well as the media) has referred to the actors as “criminals” and “hacker” but notably not “terrorists.” Many cyberattacks are forms of extortion. They seek money from businesses to release data.  This is different. This was an effort to coerce a population; to cause economic chaos.

    Notably, DarkSide announced that it would shutdown its operations after receiving the ransom, an announcement heralded by many. It is a dubious claim. First, the declaration serves assure the public and to tamp down calls for a global hunt for the culprits. Second, it is meaningless. Whether DarkSide continues as a moniker or as a functioning organization, we just paid off terrorists. We long maintained a policy not to yield to terrorism because it fuels more attacks. DarkSide and other such attacks have proven how ineffective we are in preventing such attacks or defying such demands. These are despicable people willing to cause deaths and social disarray, but they are also rationale actors. 

    For the moment, cyber terrorism works and the success of this attack is not going to lead to a unilateral ceasefire from cyber gangs.

    Here is the column:

    We’ve heard calls in recent years for an ever-widening category of “terrorists” to encompass groups from the Jan. 6 rioters to antifa to the the Ku Klux Klan. So it is surprising that the White House and the media have referred to the Colonial Pipeline ransomware attackers simply as “hackers.” “DarkSide” is not just a collection of hackers — it’s a group of terrorists. And the only thing more concerning than the failure to label them correctly is the possible reason for not doing so.

    From the White House to The Washington Post, the mantra has been uniform: Gas to the East Coast was cut off by hackers who demanded — and reportedly received — $5 million in ransom to give us back control of a critical pipeline. The White House not only called these individuals hackers but — when pressed about its position on paying the ransom — insisted it was just a decision for a private company. Deputy national security adviser Anne Neuberger said, “Colonial is a private company, and we’ll defer information regarding their decision on paying a ransom to them.” She and others in the Biden administration insisted the ransom payment was a “private sector decision” and said that “the administration has not offered further advice at this time.”

    After the ransom was widely reported as having been paid and gas began to flow again, President Biden gave a “no comment” when asked if he was aware of the payment. It was a curious response since the media apparently knew. The company certainly knew, and, most importantly, DarkSide knew. Yet, the White House wanted to portray itself as a pure observer to a private decision on how to handle “hackers.”

    The reason is obvious: Colonial just paid a ransom to terrorists. Moreover, gas pipelines are not just “a private company” but a highly regulated industry that closely follows the government’s directions.

    The fact is that most of Washington wanted the company to pay off the terrorists because our East Coast was rapidly melting down over shortages. While The New York Times bizarrely issued (and later quietly deleted) a statement that the attack had not led to any gas station lines or higher prices, other news stories were filled with images of long lines, fights at pumps and cascading shortages.

    The White House narrative has been to treat this as a type of cost of doing business for Colonial. The problem is that this is not some nuisance cost but a terrorist demand for payment.

    While definitions vary, DarkSide meets key elements of terrorism crimes. Key provisions such as 18 U.S.C. 2331 focus less on the motivation of terroristic acts as opposed to the intent: “(i) to intimidate or coerce a civilian population; (ii) to influence the policy of a government by intimidation or coercion; or (iii) to affect the conduct of a government by mass destruction, assassination, or kidnapping.” Congress has extended domestic terrorism classifications to include drug gangs, but laws such as the Controlled Substances Act still refer to “premeditated, politically motivated violence.” The State Department uses the same definition to designate Foreign Terrorist Organizations. Those definitions may have to be changed as groups seek to terrorize populations in economically motivated attacks. Cyber terrorism can have either economic or political motivations or both. Indeed, DarkSide has claimed to use the money for charity and suggested it has policy goals. Moreover, such gangs can be enlisted or enabled by foreign powers such as Russia or Iran to carry out such attacks.

    For those of us who have long opposed expansive definitions of terrorism, there remains a danger of converting everything from extortion to identity theft into terrorism. However, DarkSide clearly attempted to “intimidate or coerce” the entire population of the United States, and it succeeded. It used hacking as its means, but that does not change its status as a terrorist group — any more than the use of food poison would make al Qaeda a “food tamperer” rather than a terrorist organization. When you threaten an individual if they don’t pay you, you are an extortionist. When you seek to coerce an entire population, you are a terrorist — whether you claim to do so for Allah or for moolah.

    Once you acknowledge that DarkSide is a terrorist organization, however, it is harder for the White House to shrug and dismiss this as merely a “private sector decision.”

    We have long maintained a policy of not yielding to terrorists, and outsourcing ransom payments does not change the implications of this decision. DarkSide and other cyber terrorists now know they not only can succeed but can do so surprisingly quickly. Indeed, ransomware has been profitably used around the world for years with businesses. Indeed, my suspicion is that the vast majority of ransoms paid have not been made public by businesses but are known to the FBI. This incident, though, was different. It was designed to cause widespread social and political havoc among our population.

    If the Biden administration did not want to pay terrorists, it could have used a wide array of powers to pressure Colonial not to pay. Colonial is tied into our infrastructure and largely exists by the grace of federal and state agencies. If Biden declared publicly that the company should not yield to terrorists, he would have presented no less of an existential threat to the company than DarkSide did.

    It may be true that the Biden administration concluded we are defenseless to cyber terrorism despite years of ransomware attacks and hundreds of billions of dollars in cybersecurity programs. If that is the case, the public should be informed. The failure of Congress and our government to defend against such terror attacks is a national security failure of breathtaking proportions. The Colonial Pipeline attack was the cyber equivalent of Pearl Harbor. In both cases, we were caught unprepared and unable to deal with a threat we knew was coming. Yet President Roosevelt did not issue a “no comment” on the critical facts after the Pearl Harbor attack in 1941.

    Back then, we believed FDR when he stated in his first inauguration that “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself.”  If we are going to defeat this new form of terrorism, we must first call it for what it is. Not fear it, face it.

    What the Biden administration seems to fear most is public recognition that it is afraid — afraid of the vulnerability of our infrastructure, afraid that the public will learn what cyber terrorists already know.

    This should not be treated as just another political dodge, however. During the 2020 election, Biden simply refused to share his views on key issues such as packing the Supreme Court. Yet this is a far more serious matter, and we do not have time for another study commission to give the president cover. We need to call DarkSide what it is — a terrorist organization — and to acknowledge what we did: We paid off terrorists. Then, perhaps, we can get some answers as to whether our country remains only days away from another meltdown due to a failure to defend against ransomware.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/17/2021 – 20:50

  • EV Anxiety? World's Largest Lithium Producer Crashes On Chilean Political Storm
    EV Anxiety? World’s Largest Lithium Producer Crashes On Chilean Political Storm

    As we detailed earlier, as Chileans overwhelmingly chose leftist and independent candidates for the country’s constitutional convention, the new non-free-market-friendly political regime is generating a lot of uncertainly in Chilean markets.

    One of the biggest equity losers on the session is Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile SA (SQM), the world’s largest producer of lithium, down more than 10% in the US cash session. 

    A new left-leaning constitution could include even tighter lithium mining operations in the country. 

    “Even, possibly, to the point that those old, grandfathered, licenses are revoked. Or the lithium operations (intimately tied in with the potassium and iodine ones, they’re not separable) might be taken back under direct state control. There are those, as above, who still would relitigate that initial privatization,” former Forbes writer Tim Worstall wrote in a Seeking Alpha piece in late 2020. Back then, he was writing about SQM’s path in light of a new constitution in 2021. 

    Worstall added:

    “The process here is a constitutional convention and it’s really difficult to predict what the end result of one of those is going to be. After all, they are, by there mere declaration of what they’re doing, insisting that they’re going to change the basic rules of the country. And SQM does have that slightly anomalous position – as does more strongly lithium mining in Chile – which means we might want to worry here.”

    A new constitution could change SQM’s position in the country and even affect their legal right to mine. No wonder the stock crashed. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/17/2021 – 20:30

  • Taibbi: Is Slack Destroying American Companies? Q&A With Antonio Garcia-Martinez
    Taibbi: Is Slack Destroying American Companies? Q&A With Antonio Garcia-Martinez

    Authored by Matt Taibbi via TK News

    ​

     

    Late last week, amid a Slack-driven furor over his confessional memoir Chaos Monkeys, Apple fired ads engineer Antonio Garcia-Martinez. I wrote Friday about the specific hypocrisy of Apple’s move — the company has the author of Bitches Ain’t Shit on its board but claimed it fired Garcia-Martinez as a statement of its devotion to “inclusivity” — but over the weekend spoke to Antonio about the larger issue of his case, which extends past his own predicament.

    “This business of Slack at work,” he said.

    After George Floyd’s death last summer, corporate leaders found themselves in an unusual position. With water-cooler conversations turbo-charged by chat programs like Slack, many firms saw outpourings of anger. Employees demanded their employers do something, or at least be seen doing something, to “confront racism.”

    In some shops, employers were asked to recognize Juneteenth as a paid holiday. In others, there was a demand for more diverse hiring procedures. Significant donations to political organizations, scholarship funds, or product lines targeted to African-Americans were expected.

    Responses became more idiosyncratic. Walmart, CVS, and Walgreens pledged to stop putting “multicultural cosmetic products” behind locked cases in retail outlets. YouTube deleted 100,000 videos and 100 million comments as part of an expanded hate speech policy. HBO Max took down Gone With the Wind, then restored it with a disclaimer that it showed “ethnic and racial prejudices” that “were wrong then and are wrong today.” Disney later did something similar with The Muppet Show, Lady and the Tramp, The Jungle Book, The Aristocats, Dumbo, Peter Pan, and Swiss Family Robinson.

    In some places, the connections between the companies’ core businesses and structural racism were apparent. For instance, many of the banks that made the most ostentatious pledges of support for Black Lives Matter were the same firms that targeted black communities with exotic subprime mortgage products, Wells Fargo’s “ghetto loans” episode being among the more infamous.

    In other places, the connection was less clear. What should FitBit be doing to fix police brutality? How could Pinterest contribute? (They ended up removing ads on Black Lives Matter search results, so readers could “focus on learning about the movement”). Was it axiomatic that every company had a political role to play?

    Soon, a new type of controversy arose, ironically at some of the companies with the reputations for most progressive management. The questions were less about race than workflow. At cryptocurrency firm Coinbase, employees demanded that CEO Brian Armstrong make a statement in support of Black Lives Matter. Armstrong, for a while, demurred. Then some employees and executives began what Wired called a “virtual walkout,” in which “senior engineers encouraged junior staff to close their laptops in solidarity.”

    Armstrong quickly got religion, or so it seemed. He went on Twitter to announce, “I want to unequivocally say that Black Lives Matter.” Then, within weeks, Armstrong and Coinbase leadership flipped completely, announcing that the firm would no longer engage in “social activism,” and any employee who didn’t like the new policy could get the fuck out.

    Coinbase offered 4-6 months of severance (depending on service time) and six months of COBRA, in a statement saying — in the thickest corporate sarcasm — that the arrangement could be a “win-win” for the politically minded, as “life is too short to work at a company you’re not excited about.” Only about 60 of the company’s 1,200 employees took the buyout.

    At another tech firm, Basecamp, CEO Jason Fried — long the owner of a rep as a progressive corporate leader, as his company has published five books on workplace culture — put the kibosh on controversial talk at work, banning “societal and political discussions.” Shopify, an e-commerce firm that broke ground after the January 6th riots by closing online stores tied to Trump or MAGA merchandise, has now become a symbol of corporate pushback. CEO Tobi Lütke just sent an email to employees explaining that work is not life and life is not work, and employee demands should be adjusted accordingly:

    Shopify, like any other for-profit company, is not a family. The very idea is preposterous. You are born into a family. You never choose it, and they can’t un-family you. It should be massively obvious that Shopify is not a family but I see people, even leaders, casually use terms like “Shopifam” which will cause the members of our teams (especially junior ones that have never worked anywhere else) to get the wrong impression. The dangers of “family thinking” are that it becomes incredibly hard to let poor performers go. Shopify is a team, not a family…

    Shopify is also not the government. We cannot solve every societal problem here.

    There’s a Frankensteinian irony to all this. Our biggest corporations spent decades steeping the public in weird Me Generation propaganda stressing the primacy of personal fulfillment, which fast became our real national faith as traditional religion lost influence. The result was a work-centric culture most of the rest of the world looked on as a kind of insanity. Alone among peoples who have a choice in such matters, Americans have long bragged about working themselves to death, feeling real pride in putting off distractions like marriage, kids, or “meaning” as they ran hamster wheels in pursuit of status and rock-hard abs, alone and at full speed toward the great beyond.

    Americans in my age group, Gen-Xers, were poorly prepared for corporate jobs in that a lot of us were somehow surprised to learn our ethnomusicology or (in my case) creative writing degrees were fairly useless for finding paying work. In conjunction with the huge sums many people borrowed to get those educations, the whole thing was a bit of a scam, though of course we should have known better.

    Millennials had it worse. They attended the same academic resort spas, and were handed the same oft-preposterous degrees, but were additionally indoctrinated in affirming ideological oat-baths stressing the righteousness of their lived experiences. If the big surprise my generation faced was that our educations were worth bupkes to employers, the next generation had to deal with the shock of corporate bosses being indifferent to their emotional needs.

    Meaning, we’ve come full circle. After training generations of Americans to forego personal lives and work their brains to mush in service of bigger profits, corporate leaders are waking up to find their companies staffed by people so psychologically dependent upon validation from work that they’re a net minus from a production standpoint, forcing bosses to beg them to shut up, go home, and get lives. Not many modern Americans know how to do any of those things, however, as can be seen in cases like that of Garcia-Martinez, where 2,000 employees claimed to be literally incapable of sharing a vast corporate structure with someone who once wrote a book containing passages they might have disagreed with, if they’d actually read it.

    “The thought of conflating your entire political, moral, social, family, and religious being with your professional persona,” Garcia-Martinez says, “I think is extraordinarily fraught and difficult.”

    Another irony: despite the progressive sheen of these campaigns, Slack agitation doesn’t represent a resurgence of labor. Unions used the strength of the whole workforce to protect the rights of the individual employee, among other things insisting that management not act without due process, evidence, etc. Slack, as has been seen in cases like Antonio’s, or the oustings at the New York Times of editor James Bennet and reporter Donald McNeil, often urges companies to bypass process and act in the heat of the moment. In any case, it’s a weird kind of liberalism that tries to override management to get employees fired, but that’s where we are in the modern American workplace.

    I asked Antonio about these and other issues, from his perspective:

    TK: You’ve had multiple careers, and clearly took writing seriously. How will episodes like this affect people who might try to write or take creative detours in their careers?

    Antonio Garcia-Martinez: Kat Rosenfield was tweeting about this and I love her and it’s great that she’s defending me. Do you want art? People are saying, “Well, you should have realized the consequences… I feel like saying: “Do you realize if an artist went into producing their art, whatever it is, literary or nonfiction or whatever, and thought about the consequences, the art would be total shit?”

    Looking at it bigger, there’s a lot of political ideologies like Nazism and communism that thought that art should be subservient to politics, and that art can only serve a political end. Those movements did not end well. I don’t think we want that in our liberal democratic society. I think that’s a bizarre ideological way of looking at the world, from the wokesters who treat this as a quasi-religion.

    This is an excerpt from today’s subscriber-only post. To read the entire article and get full access to the archives, you can subscribe for $5 a month or $50 a year.

    Subscribe Now

     

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/17/2021 – 20:10

  • Lumber Industry Has No Interest In New Mills As They Reap Rewards Of Record Prices 
    Lumber Industry Has No Interest In New Mills As They Reap Rewards Of Record Prices 

    The problem with the North American lumber industry is that supply is controlled by just a few firms that can easily manipulate prices. For instance, WSJ reports lumber mills are in no rush to bring on additional capacity as they reap the rewards of consumers paying four times the average price. 

    North America’s sawmills, such as Weyerhaeuser Co., West Fraser Timber Co., Canfor Corporation, Interfor Corporation, and PotlatchDeltic, are in no hurry to boost new capacity as they rake in the cash as lumber prices soar. Consumers have been on the opposite side of the stick, and soaring lumber prices added nearly $36k to the cost of building a new home in less than one year. 

    Lumber executives told WSJ they “aren’t racing out to build new mills” as they are contempt with elevated prices boosting their quarterly net incomes. Usually, when commodity prices soar, new supplies flood the market, but that doesn’t seem to be the case here. 

    By now, readers know soaring lumber prices have been due to a combination of factors, including record-low mortgage rates sparking a housing frenzy, home renovations, and, of course, sawmills reduced capacity at the beginning of the pandemic anticipating lower demand. 

    Executives at Weyerhaeuser Co. and West Fraser Timber Co. said they would increase budgets to boost efficiency and output at their existing mills in the South, where a glut of cheap timber resides. Some executives don’t mind accumulating a surplus amount of cash as the times are good but aren’t using the money to construct new mills. 

    “We are going to be ultra-cautious on what we do in those regards,” Canfor Corp. Chief Executive Don Kayne told investors last month when he announced record quarterly profits.

    “We don’t mind at all having a little extra cash around for sure, considering what this industry goes through.”

    Chad Hesters, who advises lumber executives and investors as managing partner in the Houston office of consulting firm Korn Ferry, told his clients not to build any mills during this cycle because “they are too late.” He said that by the time a new mill comes online, the industry’s cyclical nature could quickly turn, and new investments shift into “a good way to lose money.” 

    So in the meantime, the North American lumber industry has no incentive to bring on additional capacity as they remain cautious and enjoy the fact their quarterly net income is some of the highest in years – all at the expense of the consumer. 

    Source: WSJ

    Why would lumber companies ruin the profit-making party with added supply? 

    What’s concerning is that lawmakers on Capitol Hill are more concerned about GameStop retail daytraders in their parents’ basements than consumers paying four times the amount for lumber than a year ago. 

    Will there be an inquiry when this bubble bursts too?

    A Lumbear market.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/17/2021 – 19:50

  • Biggest Shorting Of Tech Stocks By Hedge Funds In 5 Years: Goldman Prime
    Biggest Shorting Of Tech Stocks By Hedge Funds In 5 Years: Goldman Prime

    Last week we noted that one of the clear trends to emerge as a result of the recent horrific price action in tech stocks, was the continued aggressive selling – and shorting – of tech stocks by hedge funds. The latest weekly report from Goldman’s Prime Brokerage confirms this.

    Starting at the macro level, Goldman Prime writes that the GS Prime book “was net sold for the first time in three weeks (-1.3 SDs), driven by short sales outpacing long buys 2.4 to 1. Single Names saw the largest net selling in two months, while Macro Products (Index and ETF combined) saw the largest net buying in seven weeks. Nearly all regions were net sold led by North America and EM Asia, while Europe was net bought for a 7th straight week and saw the largest $ net buying since Feb ‘18. 7 of 11 global sectors were net sold led by Info Tech, Consumer Disc, Financials, and Comm Svcs, while Health Care, Industrials, and Utilities were the most net bought.”

    As noted previously, however, the real action was in the tech sector, with GS Prime noting that “Info Tech was net sold for a 4th straight week and saw the largest $ net selling in more than 5 years, driven entirely by short sales.”

    Far from a one-off event, the report then notes that “the sector has seen increased shorting in 4 of the past 5 weeks (8 of the past 10), which is in contrast to long flows which have seen buying in 7 of the past 10 weeks.“

    Drilling down, the Goldman Prime desk reveals that 4 of the 6 Info Tech subsectors were net sold on the week, led in $ terms by Semis & Semi Equip, Tech Hardware, and IT Services, while Software and to a lesser extent Comm Equip were net bought.

    As a result, and as the latest batch of 13F filings reveals, “hedge funds are now U/W Info Tech stocks by 1.5% vs. the MSCI World, the lowest level since last November and in the 2nd percentile vs. the past five years. By industry group, hedge funds are still O/W Software & Svcs by 4.7% (28th percentile) and U/W Semis & Semi Equip and Tech Hardware by 1.7% (8th percentile) and 4.4% (18th percentile), respectively.”

    What is remarkable is that even as the HF sector is now positioned uniformly bearish in the tech sector, the GS Equity Fundamental L/S Performance Estimate fell for a second straight week by -1.83% between 5/7 and 5/13 (vs MSCI World TR -1.96%),
    driven by beta of -1.44% (from market exposure and the market sensitivity factor combined) and to a lesser extent alpha of -0.39%. In fact, as shown in the chart below, hedge funds are now once again underperforming not only broader market indexes but are down on the year…

    … while being levered to the hilt: according to GS Prime, overall book Gross leverage rose another 1.3% to 248.4% – the highest on record – while Net leverage fell -1.7 pts to 86.6% (73rd percentile one year) as a result of continued pressing of tech shorts.

    In short, we are now at max pain levels for the hedge fund sector.

    And in light of the recent rebound in the FAAMG sector which has moved higher in the past 3 days amid a reassessment of reflation concerns with the “transitory” camp now winning, the question – as we asked a week ago – is when will this massive one-sided short position push max levered funds over the edge, and lead to a powerful squeeze higher in the tech sector.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/17/2021 – 19:35

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May 17

Today’s News 17th May 2021

  • Russian Navy Says It's Closely Monitoring UK & French Warships In Black Sea
    Russian Navy Says It’s Closely Monitoring UK & French Warships In Black Sea

    Russia’s Defense Ministry on Sunday said that its Black Sea Fleet is now closely monitoring a British Royal Navy patrol vessel which just entered the Black Sea. 

    “The forces and means of the Black Sea Fleet have started tracking the activities of the Trent patrol vessel of the British Navy, which entered the Black Sea waters on May 16,” a statement from Russia’s defense ministry said of its Black Sea Fleet operations.

    Via Royal Navy

    The HMS Trent passed through the Bosporus Strait on Sunday, after a month ago the UK said its navy was planning to send patrols to the region in response to Ukraine tensions and the prior Russian troop buildup in Crimea and along the border. The Kremlin confirmed it’s since withdrawn the additional forces, which numbered in the many tens of thousands. 

    Regardless it appears to the UK is seeking to send a “message” against another potential near future Russian troop build-ups or large scale drills in the region. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Further according to TASS the Russian fleet is monitoring a French military vessel as well, since it entered the waters about five days ago.

    “On May 11, the report said the Black Sea Fleet started keeping a close eye on the French Navy’s patrol ship Commandant Birot, which had entered the Black Sea,” the report said.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/17/2021 – 02:45

  • A Primer For The Propagandized: Fear Is The Mind-Killer
    A Primer For The Propagandized: Fear Is The Mind-Killer

    Authored by Margaret Anna Alice via Off-Guardian.org,

    “Totalitarianism, if not fought against, could triumph anywhere.”

    – George Orwell

    The noose is dangling gently around our necks. Every day, they cinch it tighter. By the time we realize it’s strangling us, it will be too late.

    Those who – gradually and gleefully – sacrifice their freedoms, their autonomy, their individuality, their livelihoods, and their relationships on the altar of the “common good” have forgotten this is the pattern followed by every totalitarian regime in history.

    Everyone wonders how ordinary Germans could have been manipulated to participate or stand dumbstruck while their government was transformed into a genocidal juggernaut. This is how. Read Sebastian Haffner’s Defying Hitler memoir to see how this can happen anywhere—including here.

    Everyone wonders how Russians could have permitted and even zealously reported fellow citizens for imprisonment and execution under Article 58, the penal code invented to incarcerate anyone who dared express the slightest whisper of noncompliance under Stalin’s homicidal state. This is how. Read Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn’s meticulously documented The Gulag Archipelago to witness this progression of authoritarian lunacy.

    Everyone wonders how Hutus could have suddenly started axing their Tutsi neighbors to death after being inundated with waves of anti-Tutsi propaganda from Radio Télévision Libre des Mille Collines. Read Philip Gourevitch’s We Wish to Inform You That Tomorrow We Will Be Killed with Our Families: Stories from Rwanda.

    The list goes on. And on. And on. From Machiavelli’s The Prince to Étienne de la Boetie’s The Politics of Obedience: The Discourse of Voluntary Servitude to Edward Herman’s and Noam Chomsky’s Manufacturing Consent (and accompanying documentary) to BBC’s The Century of the Self, mechanisms of mass control have been chronicled for millennia.

    George Orwell wrote,

    As far as the mass of the people go, the extraordinary swings of opinion which occur nowadays, the emotions which can be turned on and off like a tap, are the result of newspaper and radio hypnosis.”

    Can you imagine what master propagandist Edward Bernays would have done with access to today’s mainstream media conglomerate combined with the global surveillance infrastructure of Big Tech? And you really think that’s not happening now—with another century of psychological, neurological, and technological research under their belts?

    The present ability to curate reality and coerce obedience is unprecedented, far beyond what Orwell envisioned in 1984, Bradbury in Fahrenheit 451, Huxley in Brave New World, and Burgess in A Clockwork Orange.

    A textbook example of Problem Reaction Solution, the current tsunami of worldwide hysteria is the latest and potentially most threatening example of mass control in history.

    The recipe is simple. Take a naturally occurring phenomenon, say a seasonal virus, and exaggerate its threat far beyond every imagining—despite exhaustive evidence to the contrary. Suppress, silence, ostracize, and demonize every individual who dares present facts that expose the false mono-narrative.

    Whip up a witches’ brew of anger, envy, and, most importantly, fear, escalating emotions to a boil so as to short-circuit our faculties of reason and logic.

    Isolate us from one another, supplant real-world interactions with virtual feuds, label nonconformists as a threat to the group, and pump the public with a disinformation campaign designed to confuse and atomize. In essence, foster a cultlike mentality that shuts down thought to guarantee assent.

    Cultivate and wield our cognitive biases—especially ingroup bias, conformity bias, and authority bias—against us in a comprehensive divide-and-conquer policy that keeps us too busy squabbling amongst each other to recognize and unite against those corralling us into a Matrix-like collective delusion that enables the powerful to extract our resources for their own gain.

    This ideological mass psychosis is religion—not science. If this were about science, the Media–Pharmaceutical–Big-Tech complex would not be memory-holing every dissenting voice, vilifying every thought criminal, and censoring every legitimate inquiry in quest of the truth.

    Mark Twain said, “It’s easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled.”

    He also said:

    “In religion and politics people’s beliefs and convictions are in almost every case gotten at second-hand, and without examination, from authorities who have not themselves examined the questions at issue but have taken them at second-hand from other non-examiners, whose opinions about them were not worth a brass farthing.”

    The next time you’re watching the news, reading a social media post, listening to a friend repeat a scripted talking point, pay attention. Learn to identify the earmarks of propaganda, the clickbait used to trigger your emotions, the mechanisms employed to engineer your cognitive biases.

    Don’t let your pride prevent you from seeing—and admitting—the Emperor is naked. We are losing our last sliver of opportunity to resist authoritarianism.

    This is not a partisan issue. Those who wish to control us have made it such because disunited lemmings are easier to steer than independent, critical thinkers.

    This is a human issue. This is about crushing the middle class—the backbone of a democratic republic—and transferring trillions from the middle and lower classes to the ruling plutocracy. This is about demolishing the foundations of a free society and building it back—not better, but better-controlled.

    I will close by recommending a series of illuminating videos on menticide (“the systematic effort to undermine and destroy a person’s values and beliefs … to induce radically different ideas”) throughout history by Academy of Ideas. This analysis of mass psychosis is nonpartisan and of value to every thinking human being.

    Dare to question. Dare to disbelieve. Dare to defy ideology in favor of science while you still can.

    *  *  *

    NOTE: This originated as a response to a Nextdoor.com post titled, “So many people think these Covid rules are for our safety but it’s really about control.” By the time I finished writing it, the post had vanished.

    *  *  *

    Originally published under the same title at Margaret Anna Alice Through the Looking Glass.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/17/2021 – 02:00

  • Just Whose Coast Is The Coast Guard Guarding?
    Just Whose Coast Is The Coast Guard Guarding?

    Authored by Ted Galen Carpenter via AntiWar.com,

    Most Americans likely assume that the mission of the U.S. Coast Guard is to protect the coasts of the United State from maritime threats. Increasingly, though, that is no longer true, as Coast Guard vessels and personnel now routinely operate thousands of miles from the US homeland. Moreover, they frequently are not engaged in “defensive” missions, but are instead part and parcel of Washington’s arrogant force projection around the world.

    The traditional missions were not always sensible or achievable ones, to be sure. During the 1920s and early 1930s, Coast Guard cutters were tasked with trying to intercept shipments of liquor trying to reach thirsty consumers in the United States. Not surprisingly, that mission proved to be utterly futile and frustrating. More recently, the Coast Guard (along with other agencies, such as the Drug Enforcement Administration) has pursued a similar quixotic effort to intercept vessels carrying cargoes of marijuana, cocaine, heroin, and other currently illegal drugs. Indeed, the Coast Guard itself boasts that it is “the nation’s first line of defense” against drug smugglers.

    During both prohibition crusades, such efforts have proven more symbolic than substantive. Authorities confiscate only about 10 percent of the targeted contraband, and bootleggers and drug traffickers simply write-off such losses as part of the normal cost of doing business. Attempts to hype successful intercepts do not change that economic reality.

    The Coast Guard’s level of success on another mission is scarcely better. Although most illegal migrants try to enter the United States over land (primarily through the US border with Mexico), a significant number attempt to enter by landing in boats of their own or as the human cargo of professional smugglers. An unlucky minority are intercepted, but most people fleeing poverty and violence in their home countries for a better life in the United States reach their destination, despite the Coast Guard’s best efforts.

    As misguided as some of those traditional missions might be, they at least involve operations in waters close to the United States. However, more and more of the Coast Guard’s time, budget, and personnel are devoted to operations far from America’s shores.

    Late last month, a Coast Guard cutter, the USCGC Hamilton entered the Black Sea as part of the US Navy’s show of strength against Russia. According to a Navy press release, that part of the voyage took place “after Hamilton conducted logistics visits to Naples, Italy and Rota, Spain. The US Coast Guard is conducting a routine deployment in US Sixth Fleet, working alongside Allies, building maritime domain awareness, and sharing best practices with partner nation navies and coast guards.” That doesn’t sound like a mission that had any relevance to the defense of America’s coasts.

    Via ABC News/US Coast Guard

    Wall Street Journal reporter Gordon Lubold likewise missed the underlying irony in the lead paragraph of his April 26, 2021, story about another Coast Guard operation: “A group of boats from Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps harassed two US Coast Guard ships earlier this month in the Persian Gulf.” Later, the story mentioned that US military officials charged that one Iranian vessel had come within 70 yards of the US ship in “unsafe and unprofessional” maneuvers. Neither Lubold (nor anyone else) bothered to ask what a US Coast Guard ship was doing 6,000 miles from home operating as part of a hostile display of force close to another country’s coastline. An objective observer might conclude that the Iranian ships were the ones defending their country from a maritime threat.

    The Coast Guard is even more active in the western Pacific as part of Washington’s effort to contain China’s power. In late 2020 and early 2021, two of the service’s most advanced cutters were deployed to those waters. Wall Street Journal reporters Lucy Craymer and Ben Kesling noted that their location was “nearly 4,000 miles closer to Shanghai than it is to San Francisco.” In 2019, a Coast Guard cutter, the USCGC Bertholf, even transited the extraordinarily sensitive Taiwan Strait to show US military backing for Taiwan’s resistance to China’s growing pressure. Lyle Morris, a senior policy analyst at the Rand Corporation, asserts that “the biggest transition [in US security strategy in the Pacific] has been the Coast Guard’s more overt signaling about its role in the great power competition with China.”

    Some of the official rationales for these new missions are transparently disingenuous. The US Coast Guard cutter Kimball just completed a multi-week mission to “counter illegal fishing” in the “Philippine Sea.” That body of water is much better known as the South China Sea, and the ship was there as tangible evidence of Washington’s support for Manila in its increasingly tense territorial dispute with China over islands there.

    One should be able to insist that the architects of Washington’s imperial foreign policy at least practice truth in labeling. It is no longer clear that the Coast Guard’s dominant focus is to protect America’s coasts. Even though the service is officially part of the Department of Homeland Security, it increasingly operates as an adjunct of the Navy in projecting US power around the world. It is an Orwellian euphemism to portray it as an agency dedicated to coastal defense when it routinely performs such offensive functions thousands of miles from home.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/17/2021 – 00:00

  • As COVID Concerns Ease, DHS Reminds Americans Terrorists May Attack At Any Time
    As COVID Concerns Ease, DHS Reminds Americans Terrorists May Attack At Any Time

    Be afraid, very afraid.

    That appears to be the message from the Biden administration.

    As they cede “control” over the populace’s fear of COVID to the reality of a virus that doesn’t spread outdoors, or on surfaces, or via mask-blocking droplets and are increasingly unable to ‘scientifically’ explain the political problem that non-restrictive states have not suffered measurably different outcomes from lockdown states; the timing of the latest fear-filled Department of Homeland Security’s ‘National Terrorism Advisory System’ Bulletin is questionable at best.

    DHS is warning that terrorists may attack as COVID restrictions ease across the US, citing social media platforms and online forums used by perpetrators to spread their violent rhetoric.

    “Today’s terrorism-related threat landscape is more complex, more dynamic, and more diversified than it was several years ago. We know that providing timely and useful information to the public is critical as we all work together to secure the homeland.  With the issuance of today’s NTAS Bulletin, we are advising the public to be vigilant about ongoing threats to the United States, including those posed by domestic terrorism, grievance-based violence, and those inspired or influenced by foreign terrorists and other malign foreign influences,” said Secretary Mayorkas.

    “In this evolving threat environment, DHS is redoubling our efforts to detect and disrupt all forms of foreign and domestic terrorism and targeted violence, while safeguarding privacy protections, civil rights, and civil liberties.”

    As a reminder, in February, Secretary Mayorkas designated combating domestic violent extremism as a National Priority Area for the first time.

    As Robert Higgs wrote, fear, like every other “productive” resource, is subject to the laws of production. Thus, it cannot escape the law of diminishing marginal productivity: as successive doses of fear-mongering are added to the government’s “production” process, the incremental public clamor for governmental protection declines. The first time the government cries wolf, the public is frightened; the second time, less so; the third time, still less so. If the government plays the fear card too much, it overloads the public’s sensibilities, and eventually people discount almost entirely the government’s attempts to frighten them further.

    So it’s time to change the tune from ‘fear’ of a biological virus to fear of a much more insidious belief-based virus (belief in anything but the establishment narrative of anything).

    By keeping the population in a state of artificially heightened apprehension, the government-cum-media prepares the ground for planting specific measures of taxation, regulation, surveillance, reporting, and other invasions of the people’s wealth, privacy, and freedoms. Left alone for a while, relieved of this ceaseless bombardment of warnings, people would soon come to understand that hardly any of the announced threats has any substance and that they can manage their own affairs quite well without the security-related regimentation and tax-extortion the government seeks to justify.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/16/2021 – 23:30

  • Former Professor Sentenced To 37 Months In Prison For Using Federal Grants To Aid China’s Medical Research
    Former Professor Sentenced To 37 Months In Prison For Using Federal Grants To Aid China’s Medical Research

    By Cathy He of The Epoch Times,

    A biomedical professor has been sentenced to 37 months in prison for carrying out a scheme to use millions of dollars in federal grant money to advance research in China, according to the Justice Department.

    Zheng Songguo, a former professor at Ohio State University (OSU), pleaded guilty in November to lying on his National Institutes of Health (NIH) grant applications, in order to use $4.1 million in research grants to develop the fields of rheumatology and immunology for China, the department said.

    Zheng Songguo

    He was arrested last May in Anchorage, Alaska, as he was preparing to board a charter flight to China in an attempt to flee the United States. When taken into custody, he was carrying multiple items, including two laptops, three cell phones, several USB drives, several bars of silver, expired Chinese passports for his family, and deeds for property in China.

    The judge also ordered Zheng to pay more than $3.4 million in restitution to the NIH and about $413,000 to OSU.

    “For years the defendant concealed his participation in Chinese government talent recruitment programs, hiding his affiliations with at least five research institutions in China,” Assistant Director Alan E. Kohler Jr. of the FBI’s Counterintelligence Division said in a statement.

    The case is among a string of federal actions targeting academics who collaborate with Chinese institutions while receiving research funding from U.S. taxpayers. Many of these cases involve researchers who allegedly hid their participation in Chinese state-backed recruitment programs, such as the “Thousand Talents Plan,” which U.S. officials say serve as a vehicle for the transfer of U.S. research and know-how to China.

    “American research funding is provided by the American taxpayer for the benefit of American society—not as an illicit gift to the Chinese government,” said Assistant Attorney General John C. Demers for the Justice Department’s National Security Division.

    Zheng admitted to making false statements in his NIH grant applications, hiding his participation in Chinese state-sponsored talent plans, and masking his collaboration with a Chinese university, prosecutors said.

    The former professor led a team conducting autoimmune research at OSU and Pennsylvania State University. According to court documents, while employed at OSU, Zheng was also working at the Third Affiliated Hospital at Sun Yat-Sen University, a state-controlled school in southern China’s Guangdong Province. The university’s homepage named him as an expert under the Thousand Talents Plan court documents said. The website is no longer accessible.

    Prosecutors said that Zheng had been participating in a Chinese talent plan since 2013. Since then, he used research conducted in the United States to benefit the Chinese regime.

    According to court documents, at times, Zheng was receiving money from both the NIH and China’s National Natural Science Foundation of China, which is managed by the Ministry of Science and Technology.

    Zheng didn’t disclose these conflicts of interest to his U.S. employers or the NIH.

    Last June, a former chair of Harvard University’s chemistry department was indicted on charges of making false statements about funding he received from the Thousand Talents Plan while working on sensitive U.S. research. He has pleaded not guilty.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/16/2021 – 23:00

  • 48 Shot, Including 2 Police Officers In Another Out Of Control Chicago Weekend
    48 Shot, Including 2 Police Officers In Another Out Of Control Chicago Weekend

    Yet another deadly Chicago weekend has seen shootings soar with as of Sunday mid-evening 48 people shot since Friday night, including 5 killed from their wounds. “A violent weekend in Chicago left at least 48 people shot in separate incidents, including two police officers who were wounded on Sunday morning when they responded to a ShotSpotter detection alert, authorities said,” ABC News reports in a mid-evening update.

    Tragically this included a 2-year old girl who was wounded after a vehicle pulled up beside the one she was riding in the backseat of and opened fire. Thankfully she survived the ordeal after being wounded with a bullet to the leg.

    This adds to an already record-smashing year as Newsweek observed at the start this month: “In Chicago, 956 people were shot in the first four months of 2021—217 more than the same point in 2020, which was a record-setting year for shootings in the Illinois city.”

    Via AP

    On Sunday the Chicago Sun-Times detailed some among the growing casualty list from shootings as follows…

    • In the weekend’s latest fatal shooting, a man was shot dead Saturday afternoon in Woodlawn on the South Side… The 21-year-old was taken to the University of Chicago Medical Center, where he was pronounced dead, police said.
    • Early Saturday morning, two people were killed and three others wounded in a shooting at a party in Gresham on the South Side.
    • Several people were at a gathering in the 7800 block of South Loomis Boulevard when a gunman opened fire shortly after 3 a.m., according to police.
    • A 26-year-old man suffered a gunshot wound to the head and was transported to the University of Chicago Medical Center, where he was later pronounced dead, police said.
    • A 21-year-old was also struck in the head and taken to the same hospital, where he later died, police said.

    And in once instance police arrested an 18-year old male with a rifle fleeing on foot in an urban neighborhood street after gunshots rang out, only to later find that a man was shot in the head and died in the same vicinity, which is now under investigation. 

    On Sunday morning two police officers were shot after they approached a suspect who “immediately began firing a gun at the officers,” Chicago Police Superintendent David Brown told a news briefing. Thankfully their wounds were considered minor, and both are “stable, recovering and in good condition.”

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    Chicago’s situation echoes that of many other liberal-run cities, where crime has run rampant since last summer’s “peaceful protests,” which consisted of property damage, assaults, looting, and lighting cities on fire.

    Police and emergency responders are no doubt bracing for another likely violent summer, given civic leaders in many of the hardest-hit cities appear content to simply continue the same failed policies while simply blaming endemic and “structural” inequalities, leading to more rhetoric and proposals of “banning the police” and other insane measures. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/16/2021 – 22:30

  • New Video Reveals Capitol Police Officer Giving Protesters Permission To Enter Building
    New Video Reveals Capitol Police Officer Giving Protesters Permission To Enter Building

    Authored by Julie Kelly via American Greatness (emphasis ours)

    A newly-obtained video shows United States Capitol Police officers speaking with several January 6 protestors—including Jacob Chansley, the so-called “Q shaman”—inside the Capitol that afternoon.

    One officer, identified in the video and confirmed by charging documents as Officer Keith Robishaw, appears to tell Chansely’s group they won’t stop them from entering the building. “We’re not against . . . you need to show us . . . no attacking, no assault, remain calm,” Robishaw warns. Chansley and another protestor instruct the crowd to act peacefully. “This has to be peaceful,” Chansley yelled. “We have the right to peacefully assemble.”

    Watch:

    The video directly contradicts what government prosecutors allege in a complaint filed January 8 against Chansley: “Robishaw and other officers calmed the protestors somewhat and directed them to leave the area from the same way they had entered. Chansley approached Officer Robishaw and screamed, among other things, that this was their house, and that they were there to take the Capitol, and to get Congressional leaders.”

    Chansley later is seen entering the Senate chambers with a police officer behind him; he led several protesters in prayer and sat in Vice President Mike Pence’s chair. (The man in the yellow sweatshirt is William Watson, a drug dealer out on bond. He was arrested in January.)

    Chansley is not charged with assaulting an officer; he faces several counts for trespassing and disorderly conduct. He has been incarcerated since January, denied bail awaiting trial. He has no criminal record.

    American Greatness obtained the video from RMG News. The 44-second clip is reportedly part of a much longer video that has yet to be released.

    * * *

    Meanwhile:

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/16/2021 – 22:00

  • "Where's My Wife's Car?": UFC Star Beneil Dariush Calls Out Elon Musk After His Fight On UFC 262
    “Where’s My Wife’s Car?”: UFC Star Beneil Dariush Calls Out Elon Musk After His Fight On UFC 262

    In addition to dealing with the entire bitcoin community, who is none too pleased with him at the moment, Elon Musk also got a “special” shoutout during UFC 262 when Beneil Dariush called him out on national television for late delivery of a Tesla. 

    Dariush beat aging UFC star Tony Ferguson before taking to the mic to ask Musk: “Where’s my wife’s car, bro?”

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    “I wanna call somebody out,” Dariush said after the fight to Joe Rogan. “I wanna call out your buddy, Elon. Elon Musk, where’s my wife’s car, bro? I’ve been waiting six months. I’ve had the baby, I need a good car, I gotta protect my daughter. Let’s go Elon, get me my car.”

    He then dedicated his fight win to to everyone “affected by Marxist ideologies,” according to RT. 

     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     

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    Post-fight, Dariush was told that Elon Musk was on the board of UFC’s parent company, Endeavor.

    Dariush wasn’t phased, replying: “I’m sorry, Elon, but I’m not sorry. I’m sticking with what I said.”

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    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/16/2021 – 21:30

  • Hedge Fund CIO: "Trading Is Truly An Awful Pursuit"
    Hedge Fund CIO: “Trading Is Truly An Awful Pursuit”

    By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

    Anecdote

    “What are you thinking about markets here?” asked the entrepreneur, wedging the question into our conversation, but working hard to sound barely interested.

    I laughed, unable to contain it. “Oh, so you really called to ask about bitcoin,” I said, smelling his quiet panic.

    “Well, you know, yeah basically, I mean what do think about all this stuff going on?” he asked, not wanting anything other than reassurance.

    “You don’t get to make a lot of money without enduring an even greater amount of pain – that’s just the way the universe works,” I explained, having a little fun while trying to be helpful. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not someone who enjoys the suffering of others. It’s just that I’ve endured so much of it myself that when I observe it in people who casually trade, thinking it’s fairly easy, I find it funny they believe trading somehow defies natural law.

    Ask an athlete or actor how much pain they endured in exchange for glory. Ask an artist or entrepreneur the depth of their sacrifice, made in exchange for even a chance at greatness. You’ll hear stories of endless hours, repeated failures, humiliation, tortured lives, often nearly destroyed.

    And never in those fields is there a guarantee of ultimate success. Quite the opposite – the odds are stacked heavily against survival, let alone triumph. In any game that does not award participation trophies, it can work no other way.

    “This week was nothing compared to what you’ll need to endure in the years to come. Three negative headlines hit a market filled with leveraged retail longs,” I explained, sensing longer-term silver linings in each piece of bad news.

    “It was the kind of week that can get even fairly committed traders to puke, cutting out the source of their pain. That’s how markets operate – trading is truly an awful pursuit,” I said.

    “And you should generally hope for news that’s just bad enough to maintain the wall of worry, without being fatal. It’s only after the news becomes universally good, volatility collapses, and leveraged carry traders start picking up pennies that you should really worry.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/16/2021 – 21:00

  • Police Across America Brace For Another Violent Summer
    Police Across America Brace For Another Violent Summer

    Donald Trump may not be president anymore, but that won’t stop Anitfa and BLM from getting their riot willies out this summer in response to any number of social justice triggers.

    To that end, the Wall Street Journal reports that police departments across the country are “bulking up patrols and implementing new tactics to prepare for what they say could be a violent summer” as states lift COVID-19 restrictions – as if they had any impact on last year’s summer of leftist violence. Also cited is a spike in firearm purchases during the pandemic as gun crimes spiral out of control in major cities.

    Shootings and homicides in big U.S. cities are up this year again after rising last year. In the last three months of 2020, homicides rose 32.2% in cities with a population of at least one million, according to the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s Quarterly Uniform Crime Report.

    In New York City, the number of homicides has reached 146 for the year so far, an increase of 27% from 115 during the same period in 2020. In Dallas, police have counted 75 homicides this year, up from 58 during the same period last year. Chicago police have recorded 195 homicides, up from 160 in the year-ago period. -WSJ

    And while y/y crime stats spiking 12 months after the country was locked down is may seem like more of a ‘no shit’ than anything else, keep in mind that New York saw its most violent summer last year since 1996. Meanwhile, the country currently finds itself extremely polarized over more than just police reform, as ongoing tensions in the Middle East have spilled over into US streets, and anti-lockdown activists around the world have been fiercely protesting economy-killing pandemic measures – which we imagine our ‘wise and benevolent’ leaders like New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) won’t hesitate to re-implement if COVID-19 even thinks about surging again.

    “We’re coming out of the pandemic, life is starting again and more people are going to be out on the street,” said James Shea, Jersey City NJ director of public safety, adding that the city decided to increase the deployment of officers on foot patrol in high-crime areas, as well as expanded the department’s closed-circuit video system.

    In Dallas, more officers will be deployed this summer to hot-spots of criminal activity as part of the city’s Violent Crime Reduction Plan, according to Police Chief Eddie Garcia.

    In New York, the NYPD will dispatch 200 additional officers and add patrols to 100 blocks in the city with the most gun violence, according to the report, after last year’s chaos. Additional officers have also been deployed to Manhattan business districts in recent weeks, including Times Square, where a recent shooting left three bystanders – including a 4-year-old girl – were injured.

    “The warmer months always usually give us more problems when it comes to violence,” said NYPD Chief of Department, Rodney Harrison, who added that gang activity accounts for around half of the shootings in the city – while officers struggled to solve cases during the pandemic due to the NYPD’s strained relationship with residents amid demonstrations against police brutality.

    Year-to-date, shootings in New York City are up 86% over 2020, from 242 to 451.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/16/2021 – 20:30

  • Microsoft Board Members Wanted Gates Gone In 2019 After Investigation Into Sexual Relationship
    Microsoft Board Members Wanted Gates Gone In 2019 After Investigation Into Sexual Relationship

    Update (1920ET): In a Sunday night bombshell, the Wall Street Journal reports that Microsoft’s board of directors wanted Bill Gates gone following an internal investigation into an inappropriate sexual relationship with a female Microsoft employee.

    The investigation, conducted in late 2019, was launched after the woman in question – a Microsoft engineer, blew the whistle over a years-long sexual relationship she had with Gates – right around this time that Gates’ relationship with notorious pedophile Jeffrey Epstein had spilled into the public sphere and Melinda Gates began exploring divorce.

    During the probe, some board members decided it was no longer suitable for Mr. Gates to sit as a director at the software company he started and led for decades, the people said. Mr. Gates resigned before the board’s investigation was completed, another person familiar with the matter said. -WSJ

    “Microsoft received a concern in the latter half of 2019 that Bill Gates sought to initiate an intimate relationship with a company employee in the year 2000,” said a spokesman for the company. “A committee of the Board reviewed the concern, aided by an outside law firm to conduct a thorough investigation. Throughout the investigation, Microsoft provided extensive support to the employee who raised the concern.”

    Bill and Melinda Gates announced earlier this month that they were ending their 27-year marriage because, according to Melinda, the marriage was “irretrievably broken.” She had been working with attorneys since at least 2019 to end it according to the Journal. And while the couple hasn’t revealed what prompted the split, the Journal also reported that Bill’s dealings with Epstein was a ‘source of concern.’

    Members of the Microsoft board became aware in late 2019 of the letter from the female engineer, who demanded changes to her Microsoft job and also shared details of her relationship with Mr. Gates, the people familiar with the matter said. Mr. Nadella and other senior executives were aware of the woman’s allegations, some of the people said.

    Some board members asked about Mr. Gates’s dealings with Mr. Epstein, one of the people said. Board members were told the relationship was focused on philanthropy and nothing more, this person said.

    In December 2019—before the end of the probe—Mr. Gates was re-elected to Microsoft’s board at the annual shareholder meeting. As more became clear about the matter, board members were concerned Mr. Gates’s relationship with the woman had been inappropriate and they didn’t want a director associated with this situation in the wake of the #MeToo movement, the people said.

    As part of her discussions with Microsoft, the employee asked that Ms. French Gates read her letter, people familiar with the matter said. It couldn’t be learned whether Ms. French Gates read the letter.

    The question is – who knew what, and when? Either way, looks like Gates will be eating bugs for one for the foreseeable future.

    *  *  *

    Bill Gates is being urged to come forward with evidence about his former pedo-pal Jeffrey Epstein, after their years-long relationship continued after Epstein was a known pedophile – and has been cited by anonymous sources as a key factor in Melinda Gates’ decision to divorce him, which she began pursuing in 2019 after Gates’ relationship with Epstein came under the spotlight. 

    Attorney Spencer Kuvin, who represents nine Epstein accusers, told The Sun that Gates should step up and volunteer any information on Epstein and his associates that might help in the ongoing investigation into Ghislaine Maxwell, Epstein’s ‘Madam.’

    “Why are you taking business meetings with a person like that? I question anyone’s moral character who chooses to take business meetings with someone who’s exhibited that kind of behavior and admitted to that type of behavior.” said Kuvin, adding “With Bill Gates, his wealth and investigatory powers, I find it incredibly hard to believe that he would not have known the full extent of the allegations that have been brought against Epstein here for that.”

    Attorney Spencer Kuvin represents nine Epstein accusers

    “Remember there’s an ongoing investigation regarding Ghislaine Maxwell,” Kuvin continued. “So if Mr. Gates, has information that could assist in that investigation, I would say he should step forward.”

    Gates, much like Prince Andrew, has denied any wrongdoing, and has sought to distance himself from the dead ‘financier’ despite evidence that the two were much closer than he claims.

    “I met him [Epstein]. I didn’t have any business relationship or friendship with him,” Gates previously claimed.

    Yet, according to the New York Times, Gates and Epstein met at least six times, including visits to Epstein’s New York mansion on ‘multiple occasions,’ staying at least once into the night.

    Later that spring, on May 3, 2011, Mr. Gates again visited Mr. Epstein at his New York mansion, according to emails about the meeting and a photograph reviewed by The Times.

    The photo, taken in Mr. Epsteins marble-clad entrance hall, shows a beaming Mr. Epstein in blue-and-gold slippers and a fleece decorated with an American flag flanked by luminaries. On his right: James E. Staley, at the time a senior JPMorgan executive, and former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers. On his left: Mr. Nikolic and Mr. Gates, smiling and wearing gray slacks and a navy sweater. –New York Times

    Curiously, Gates adviser Boris Nikolic (pictured below) was named as a fallback executor in an will Epstein amended days before his August 10 death in a Manhattan jail cell. 

    “We know historically that numerous other people that and took meetings with Epstein after his conviction, we’re just slowly peeling away the layers of this onion of the numerous individuals, high profile individuals that continued with their social and business relationships with that scene after his convictions,” said Kuvin. “There are academic institutions and business individuals that were continuing associations with Epstein after his conviction in admissions about what he’d done to young girls.“

    While Gates has come under renewed fire for his relationship with Epstein, he’s also been accused of creepy workplace behavior.

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    Will Bill come forward?

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/16/2021 – 20:24

  • America's Housing Future Remains Murky At Best – Part 1
    America’s Housing Future Remains Murky At Best – Part 1

    Authored by Bruce Wilds via Advancing Time blog,

    The housing market in America is not one but many markets that generally share a few common threads. In America, the government, coupled with a slew of builder and Realtor associations control the housing narrative. Housing prices in Canada have been on fire for years now we are seeing this type of buying frenzy spreading to America.  This has allowed some buyers to ignore the reality that soaring lumber prices over the past 12 months have caused the price of an average new single-family home to rise by $35,872, according to the National Association of Home Builders. 

    The two questions that loom large are, who is buying these houses and where are they coming up with the cash to make such offers? Part of this is driven by the government continuing to cloak itself in the guise of being a good and kind friend to first-time buyers and helping them buy homes. This has helped move many a buyer into a home they can’t afford, cannot take care of, or simply don’t need. The long-term ramifications of such policies have destroyed many lives by putting people under tremendous financial pressure and taken its toll on neighborhoods across America.

    Buyers And Sellers Should Beware

    This buying frenzy has brought a lot of money into housing with the promise of weaseling out a profit. This means the housing sector is in some ways begun to mimic the auto sector with a “Buy here, Pay here” group opening on every corner. It has also created a massive industry where houses are bought to “flip,” This generally means buyers put a few dollars into glossing over flaws and place the house back on the market at a much higher price looking for a gullible buyer that doesn’t understand the poor product beneath the glitter.

    One trend that has grown rapidly is the “Cash for Keys” market where houses are sold to people with little money down. These deals are often structured more like a lease with an option to buy with a contract that includes a great deal of small print tilted completely in the seller’s favor. The means they sell you a house that is overpriced, milk everything they can out of the buyer, and wait to take it back so they can start the scheme all over again. Common sense dictates that to maximize profits they must really be hammering any foolish buyer willing to go down this path.

    Just yesterday a woman and her son that had lived in an apartment at my complex for eight years moved back in after several months in one of these houses. She described the four months in the house as a “horrible ordeal.” This includes things like, unexpectedly large utility bills as well as receiving estimates for needed repairs that shook her to her core. Maintenance costs can be substantial and something the average person leasing never has to deal with because they are usually included in the rent.

    The argument that the “housing game” is a racket and moves on the promise of “big money” is highlighted by several facts. For those accepting this argument, in some ways, this can be linked to the World Economic Forum’s 2030 agenda that states in 2030 you will own nothing and be happy. In the piece below, Krystal Ball of the Rising explains why the housing market is booming for those in the upper-middle class. She opines what it means for costs of homes in the future. Seven minutes into this YouTube video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBb9zf_zWvU) starts a rant, ending with, “however this ends up ordinary people are going to get screwed.”

    Many of the messages being promoted as common knowledge do not pass serious scrutiny. As I wrote this post I tried to do a bit of additional research to supplement what I know as a contractor and apartment owner. What I found was more like a pack of lies and half-truths spun to fit an agenda. Those of us in the trenches and with our boots on the ground often see things from a different perspective than what is being presented by the media.

    An interesting piece by Emma Diehl (https://www.homelight.com/blog/how-many-homes-does-a-realtor-sell-a-yea…) of the Homelight.com blog points out that in the U.S., there are over 2 million active real estate licensees and 1.3 million Realtors®, or real estate licensees who’ve taken an extra step to become certified members of the National Association of Realtors (NAR). This means, some agents may sell a single house per year for their friend, while others such as Ben Caballero, have built empires to facilitate thousands of sales annually using sophisticated tech systems. 

    In 2013, CareerBliss announced that being a real estate agent is the single most satisfying job a person could have. This led many people into this line of work. The fact is, most realtors are hard-pressed to make a decent living. This is something we are seldom told and supports the idea much of what we are told about the housing sector is hype and pure bunk. This is supported by the numbers put out by Statista which reported there were 683 thousand houses sold in the United States in 2019. This is the largest figure since 2008 but when divided by the number of real estate licensees does not mean multiple sales for each.

    While the market has responded to the housing needs of higher-income households, trends suggest a growing inability or desire to supply housing that is affordable for middle and working-class people. It appears developers have little interest in, or they simply can’t afford to add anything but luxury units. It should be noted that at the same time many houses in America sit empty or underutilized and we are hearing about a lack of new listings. I attribute this to sellers holding units off the market because they think prices will rise, they owe more for the house than they can get, or they fear the selling process will be complicated.

    Many economists may use housing starts as an indicator of the health of the economy but such numbers are only a small part of a much larger picture. This number reflects many things other than just the number of new houses under construction or started in a given period. The data is generally divided into three categories: single-family houses, townhouses or small condos, and apartment buildings with five or more units. Still more important than just the number of units being built and the type is who is buying these units and why.

    Affordability Is A Growing Issue

    While people talk about the cost of buying a home more attention should be directed towards the ability of the buyer to maintain the home after they purchase it. Another factor looming large in this sector of the economy centers on affordability. When it comes to affordability, much depends on which part of the country you live but in many coastal and popular areas prices remain high. Even with current rates by the time you add in rising real estate taxes and other costs new homes are expensive.  

    Not only are new home prices are on the rise but so are real estate taxes and other fees. There is nothing inexpensive about a new home. Sadly, even the construction is often suspect, while code enforcement has increased, many of the items used in new construction no longer outlive the mortgage a buyer takes on. Whether replacing a door after just a few years or windows, it seems everything is expensive and nothing matches the original design. My house is over a hundred years old and still has the same doors and windows. How many homes built thirty years ago support this claim, enough said. 

    While the number of permits and building starts give some indication on the direction of housing, this is a complicated and this fickle market that is subject to attitudes and economic factors which can change on a dime. Adding to the recent discussion are claims of people buying homes away from big cities in an effort to escape growing violence and the effects of covid-19, this is interlaced with stories about surging gun sales.

    New Construction Is Still Below 2008 Levels

    The chart to the right shows that new construction is still below 2008 levels. Much of the new construction has been in apartments and not single-family dwellings. In much of the country, housing units are being built using cheap money flowing from the Fed and Wall Street under the idea that if it is built “they will come.”

    Home-ownership, a large part of the America dream, has been in decline. It could be argued that demographics are not greatly supportive of higher prices, it is also difficult to ignore the fact that when people “double-up” fewer homes are needed. This adds credence to the argument that if prices rise it most likely will be as a result of inflation. Today, huge discrepancies exist in the cost of housing in the various markets across America and while price variations are not uncommon they should be seen as a red flag and reason for caution.  

    While many people claim the formation of new households and pent-up demand drives this construction I beg to differ. I contend it is a combination of too much money looking for a safe place to hide. Unnoticed by many Americans is how money from Wall Street has entered this arena and is pushing out the average American. One thing is certain that when inflation raises its ugly head and interest rates increase, housing construction will suffer. The intention of this post is to dispel and explore some of the myths and trends surrounding the future of housing while causing people to think about this subject. Hopefully, it has added some clarity to the discussion.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/16/2021 – 20:00

  • "Ever Heard Of Paypal?": Elon Musk Has Epic Meltdown Arguing With Bitcoin Fanatics
    “Ever Heard Of Paypal?”: Elon Musk Has Epic Meltdown Arguing With Bitcoin Fanatics

    With Elon Musk’s “stand” against bitcoin last week, claiming that Tesla would not longer accept the coin for payments due to the environmental impact of mining it, the Tesla CEO quickly wound up doing an about-face in terms of his popularity with bitcoin fanatics. 

    And that “new” relationship was on full display Sunday when the Tesla CEO had an epic meltdown after a spat that started with podcast host Peter McCormack. The spat sent cryptos crashing:

    And subjected Musk to ridicule…

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    It began when McCormack had written a thread to Musk, accusing him of “trolling” with his support of Dogecoin, which led Musk to respond:

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    This set off the coining community, with Dogecoin creator @BillM2K asking of Musk’s comment: “Do you see what being a toxic idiot does to your coin and community?”

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    Musk’s response also opened the door for a spat wherein he called bitcoin “highly centralized” and boasted “Hey cryptocurrency ‘experts’, ever heard of PayPal? It’s possible…maybe…that I know [more] than you realize about how money works”. 

    To which McCormack replied…

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    Musk’s meltdown drew additional jeers from all over Twitter. Max Keiser wasted no time with critiquing Musk’s arguments and went directly for an ad hominem shot at his mother, Maye Musk. Others claimed Musk was ready to “rage quit” bitcoin.

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    Well known Tesla critic @TeslaCharts chimed in:

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    Others accused Musk of not being able to stay in his lane…

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    Max Keiser joked that Elon made Peter Schiff, who he is notoriously at odds over bitcoin with, rational.

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    Finally, one Twitter user summed up Musk’s “cradle to grave” experience with bitcoin:

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    When one user suggested Musk should dump his bitcoin as a result of the treatment he was getting, Musk replied “indeed”:

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    This caused the following headline to hit the Bloomberg terminal: “MUSK IMPLIES TESLA MAY SELL OR HAS SOLD BITCOIN HOLDINGS”.

    The headline and the spat had Bitcoin trading with a $45,000 handle by mid day Sunday.

    Recall, after Elon Musk royally pissed off cryptoworld by announcing that Tesla would no longer accept Bitcoin last week (just three months after Tesla announced they would take it), Dogecoin co-creator, Jackson Palmer, slammed Musk in a now-deleted Tweet, calling him a ‘self-absorbed grifter.’

    Musk’s announcement caused a brutal selloff in most cryptocurrencies, including Dogecoin – which fell precipitously during the Tesla founder’s lame appearance on Saturday Night Live, where he called himself the “Dogefather” and pumped the digital coin while also calling it a “hustle.”

    So goes the new state of the crypto world…

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    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/16/2021 – 19:50

  • The $100 Million New Jersey-Based Hometown Deli Has Fired Its Wrestling Coach CEO
    The $100 Million New Jersey-Based Hometown Deli Has Fired Its Wrestling Coach CEO

    Last month, we highlighted when fund manager David Einhorn pointed out a New Jersey deli that was trading with an insane market cap of over $100 million as one of the hallmarks of the bubble the market is in. Einhorn wrote:

    “Strange things happen to all kinds of stocks. Last year, on one day in June, the stocks of about a dozen bankrupt companies roughly doubled on enormous volume. Recently, the Wall Street Journal reported a boom in penny stocks.

    Someone pointed us to Hometown International (HWIN), which owns a single deli in rural New Jersey. The deli had $21,772 in sales in 2019 and only $13,976 in 2020, as it was closed due to COVID from March to September. HWIN reached a market cap of $113 million on February 8. The largest shareholder is also the CEO/CFO/Treasurer and a Director, who also happens to be the wrestling coach of the high school next door to the deli. The pastrami must be amazing. Small investors who get sucked into these situations are likely to be harmed eventually, yet the regulators – who are supposed to be protecting investors – appear to be neither present nor curious.”

    The deli was subsequently covered in the news – as was its mysterious CEO Paul Morina, who doubled as both a wrestling coach and school principal (as you do when you’re a $100 million company CEO). 

    And now, it looks as though – for one reason or another (perhaps due to the spotlight) – the company has decided to move forward from the “talents” of Morina, who has been fired as CEO, according to CNBC. 

    The company’s majority shareholders voted to remove him and “the company’s only other executive, vice president and secretary Christine Lindenmuth, who works with Morina as an administrator at nearby Paulsboro High School,” CNBC wrote. 

    Recall, back in late April, we noted that the deli was linked to another shell company whose stock recently exploded, E-Waste. That company, which has multiple connections to Hometown, announced its President had resigned last week. 

    E-Waste is a self-admitted shell company and had total assets of about $183,000 and liabilities of $412,400 as of its most recent SEC filings. It posted a net loss of $58,000 for the 9 months ended November 30. The company’s own filings state it was created in 2012 “to develop an e-waste recycling business” but “was not successful in its efforts and discontinued that line of business.”

    It has been a shell company since then and has been looking to “engage in a business combination with a private entity whose business presents an opportunity for its shareholders.”

    But E-Waste’s stock, like Hometown’s, had recently rocketed to a high of $10.25 per share. It put the company’s market cap at over $100 million. 

    Not unlike Hometown Deli, E-Waste also had little ongoing business. Yet this didn’t stop Hometown Deli from lending E-Waste $150,000 late last year – even while the deli was closed due to the pandemic. E-Waste CEO John Rollo also had an interesting former gig for someone in the waste business: he worked another job as a patient transporter at a northern New Jersey hospital, at a healthcare system CNBC says he’s still employed at. 

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    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/16/2021 – 19:30

  • This Is Not The Inflation You Are Looking For, Move Along
    This Is Not The Inflation You Are Looking For, Move Along

    “This is not the inflation you are looking for. Move along.”

    In recent weeks a veritable cottage industry of financial experts has cropped up, seeking to defuse ever louder fears that the burst in inflation observed in the past month is “transitory” and won’t impact the Fed’s medium-term thinking or its timeline for tapering/liftoff (not least of all due to the growing political blowback against soaring inflation as captured in “Biden Aides See Political, Not Economic, Peril in Inflation Data” and “Inflation fears grow for White House“). The latest to hammer the “transitory” point is Goldman economist David Mericle who has doubled down on the bank’s sanguine view on inflation, writing in a Sunday note that the data surprises of the past two weeks “have left our Q1 2022 forecast for the start of QE tapering unchanged” adding that “if our taper timeline is right, then liftoff will probably not be on the table for about two years.” This is because the bank’s economists believe that that the inflation risks that matter most for the Fed’s rate hike decisions are not those that have emerged in the past few weeks, but rather those “that will remain relevant at a multiyear horizon.”

    So what are those multiyear horizon inflationary risks? Let’s dig in.

    First, we start with Goldman concession that inflation is indeed running amok:

    The last ten days produced a flurry of startling data surprises that added fuel to inflation fears: a 0.7% increase in average hourly earnings in April and even larger gains in low-wage industries, the largest increase in core CPI in 40 years, and a 0.4pp jump in the University of Michigan’s measure of long-term household inflation expectations to the highest level in a decade

    That said, when looking at last week’s show-stopping CPI print, which Goldman admits was “a huge upside surprise” it is one of little lasting significance according to the Goldman and here’s why. As shown in the next chart which decomposes the largest increase in the core since 1981 by category, the main contributors fall into two groups:

    1. travel and related services categories where prices are experiencing quick reopening rebounds from deeply depressed levels, and
    2. goods categories like used cars where a pandemic-induced demand surge has run headfirst into temporary shortages, production bottlenecks, and supply chain disruptions. In contrast, other large core service categories remained soft in April.

    While these forces might also generate high inflation prints in coming months – as the full normalization of prices in pandemic-depressed categories like airfares as reopening progresses would add another 30bps to core CPI and 15bps to core PCE, while supply chain disruptions including the semiconductor shortage also remain severe, as shown in the next chart and their impact on goods prices has probably not yet run its course…

    … Goldman again trots the familiar party line that “these disruptions and shortages look unlikely to boost inflation on net beyond this year”.

    Many arose because producers initially made the natural assumption last year that demand would fall in a recession, as it usually does. Instead, fiscal support boosted household incomes and the unavailability of services led to a surge in demand for goods, resulting in the supply-demand imbalances that have pushed up prices. But this problem should be resolved from both directions over the rest of the year: producers are ramping up to meet demand and consumers are increasingly free to shift their consumption basket back toward services. And encouragingly, the most prominent example of the current supply chain disruptions—the shortage of microchips for autos—is set to fade later in Q2.

    It remains to be seen if the chip shortage somehow resolves itself in the next month, but until we wait here is another chart from Goldman, this time showing the impact of reopening effects and temporary shortages on the year-on-year rate of core inflation, which Goldman believes is likely to peak in April and May, and should gradually fade later this year and will turn negative next year as prices in categories such as used cars normalize from their current elevated levels.

    Here Goldman is quick to counter that its observations do not mean that there are no inflation fears. After all, just hours earlier we discussed another Goldman note according to which the bank saw “substantial home price appreciation for at least a couple more years”, in which the bank projected that we projected “that shelter inflation will exceed 4% in 2023, a higher rate than at any point in the prior economic cycle”, even surpassing the housing bubble of 2006-2007.

    How does one reconcile the two? As Goldman’s econ team explains, it’s not that there are no inflation fears “but rather that investors should focus on the right risks, those that could have more lasting significance.“

    Going down the list, Goldman starts off with the broadest upside inflation risk which is the possibility that fiscal support, pent-up savings, and easy financial conditions could persistently push demand well above potential GDP, leading to a serious inflationary overheating: “our forecast instead implies that GDP will rise about 1% above our estimate of potential, which we would view as consistent with inflation rising moderately but not dramatically above 2%.”

    Here, Goldman notes that “so far the consumer spending data appear roughly consistent with our expectations” and the next chart shows that Goldman’s consumer spending tracker jumped after both rounds of stimulus checks, but that spending is now running about 3% above the pre-pandemic level, meaning it is only about 1% above the pre-pandemic trend (Friday’s disappointing retail sales only confirmed this hypothesis). In other words, while further reopening is likely to raise spending, the boost from the stimulus checks is likely to continue to fade.

    Next, Goldman lists three specific upside risks that could have more meaningful and lasting consequences for inflation and monetary policy than the current post-pandemic price spikes.

    Risk #1: A sharper rise in wage growth

    The first risk is that wage growth could rise to a much faster pace than reached last cycle if current signs of worker shortages and labor market tightness prove more persistent than many expect. The starting point for wage growth is unusually high for an economy emerging from a recession. The next chart shows that Goldman’s composition-adjusted wage growth tracker barely slowed from its pre-pandemic pace and remains at about 3% year-on-year.

    Adding fuel tot he fire, a number of recent labor market indicators hint at an acceleration. Average hourly earnings rose 0.7% in April, wage growth is up sharply over the last year in low-wage industries and industries with particularly tight labor markets, and lower-wage workers report much higher pay expectations for potential jobs.

    Moreover, a range of other indicators discussed here, such as a very high job openings rate, a high quits rate, worker surveys reporting that it is easy to find a job, and employer surveys reporting that it is hard to find workers, all point to a very tight labor market where workers have the upper hand.

    Incidentally, even Goldman has no problems identifying the reason for this record labor market imbalance: as the bank admits, “the underlying reason seems to be that effective labor supply is much more constrained than the 6.1% unemployment rate suggests, owing to unusually generous unemployment insurance benefits and lingering virus-related impediments to working” but “we expect both of these temporary factors to fade by the fall, which should relax these supply constraints and cool the current wage pressures.”

    Risk #2: A multi-year boom in home prices boosts rent inflation

    The second risk is one we discussed earlier, namely that a multiyear boom in US home prices could drive shelter inflation much higher. The chart below shows that shelter inflation has fallen during the pandemic, and Goldman’s shelter inflation tracker suggests that rent growth should remain modest for the time being.

    But the shelter category is highly cyclical and is very likely to accelerate as the economy improves and the effects of temporary pandemic drags like eviction moratoriums fade. On top of this, Goldman expects that a national housing shortage will fuel substantial house price appreciation for at least a couple more years. Bottom line: “the tightest national housing market since the 1970s nevertheless poses some additional upside risk.”

    Risk #3: Temporary price spikes raise inflation expectations substantially

    The third risk noted by Goldman is that the current price spikes caused by temporary pandemic effects could have a more lasting impact if they raise long-term inflation expectations substantially (i.e. transitory proves to be non-transitory). Last week brought hints in this direction, including a 0.4% jump in the University of Michigan’s measure of long-term household inflation expectations, a modest increase in long-term inflation expectations in the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and further increases in market-implied inflation compensation.

    Goldman’s own monthly version of the Fed’s index of Common Inflation Expectations (CIE) has risen further to 2.08% in a preliminary May reading. The Fed’s index is smoothed, and if the underlying measures held steady at their current levels, the bank estimates that the CIE would eventually rise to 2.1%.

    Another point to note is that at least half of the rebound over the last year appears to reflect mundane co-movement with gasoline and other energy prices, which correlate strongly even with longer-term expectations. The remainder of the increase likely reflects other factors, such as the latest price spikes and the Fed’s new average inflation targeting framework. So far, Goldman concludes, that “the increases are healthy, indeed, as Chair Powell said at his last press conference, the Fed’s new framework will only succeed in centering inflation on the 2% target if it succeeds in boosting inflation expectations.” But if the CIE moved well above its historical range as news of sharp prices increases makes headlines this year, Goldman warns of upside risk to its own inflation forecast.

    Finally, what does all this mean for Goldman’s inflation outlook and what the Fed will do next?

    As Goldman’s economists conclude, all three of these sources of upward pressure on inflation are expected to materialize to some degree in the years ahead. Indeed, each of them is an essential contributor to our forecast that core PCE inflation will reach 2.1% by end-2022, 2.15% by end-2023, and 2.2% by end-2024, higher numbers than reached last cycle and enough to generate liftoff in early 2024.

    But, as a surprisingly cautious Goldman concedes in its final paragraph, “each of the three factors discussed above also carries some additional upside risk that we take seriously and watch closely in our Monthly Inflation Monitor. While another month of rapidly rising airfares or used car prices would probably not change our medium-run inflation views much, substantial surprises on these three key risks likely.“

    In closing, it’s worth reminding readers that earlier today Morgan Stanley’s economists also warned that there is just one substantial threat to the “red hot global recovery”, and that would of course be inflation, i.e., “the biggest threat to this cycle is an overshoot in US core PCE inflation beyond the Fed’s implicit 2.5%Y threshold – a serious concern, in my view, which could emerge from mid-2022 onwards” but like Goldman, MS economists don’t see much risk of runaway (or hyperinflation) just yet and is why Morgan Stanley’s chief US economist Ellen Zentner still expects the Fed to signal its intention to taper asset purchases at the September FOMC meeting, to announce it in March 2022 and to start tapering from April 2022.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/16/2021 – 19:09

  • Druckenmiller: "There's Been No Greater Engine Of Inequality Than The Fed"
    Druckenmiller: “There’s Been No Greater Engine Of Inequality Than The Fed”

    After his status-quo-shattering appearance on CNBC this week, during which he warned that “Fed policy is endangering the dollar’s reserve status,” billionaire fund manager Stan Druckenmiller spoke to The USC Marshall Center for Investment Studies’ Student Investment Fund Annual Meeting via Zoom, and shocked the on-lookers with his frank assessment of our current perceptions and realities.

    After The Bank of Canada sheepishly admitted this week that “some of the monetary policy tools it is using to address the COVID-19 pandemic, such as quantitative easing (QE), could widen wealth inequality,” Druckenmiller drops the proverbial hammer on all the hedged-speak (“could”), and blasts that

    “I don’t think there has been a greater engine of inequality than the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States… so hearing the Chairman [Powell] talking about visiting homeless shelters is very rich indeed…”

    The outspoken fund manager went on to note that “everyone wealthy that I know is making fortunes” because “this guy [Powell] is printing money like there’s no tomorrow” adding that the kids is Harlem are not benefitting from money-printing but wealthy people are, exclaiming that

    “…for the life of me I can’t understand why the left is so excited about money-printing when all the data shows that the people who benefit from money-printing are rich people.”

    “The odds-on bet is that we’re going to have inflation,” he continues:

    “and inflation is going to hurt poor people, again, a lot more than rich people.”

    How does this all end?

    “The asset bubble which [Powell] is blowing up into unbelievable proportions busts before the inflation ever really manifests itself, that’s what happened in the housing bubble in 08/09. We never really got to the inflation because the asset bubble burst… not dis-similar to what happened in 1929.”

    And Druck reminds us all, “there is no one, no group, that will be hurt more by a bust than the poor… they will be first in line to get screwed.”

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    Can’t believe it’s true? Take a look…

    While publicly glorified by the media as “heroes” and “saviors” of the economy, Sven Henrich pointed out earlier that the true impact of Fed policy is much more sinister.

    Inflation, as Druckenmiller rightly points out hurts the poor the most as living expenses take up most if not all of their monthly budgets.

    Watch the full Druckenmiller discussion here.

    This revelation to some (not all) came after his earlier-in-the week, WSJ Op-Ed that “keeping emergency settings after the emergency has passed carries bigger risks for the Fed than missing its inflation target by a few decimal points. It’s time for a change.”

    Pointing out, rather awkwardly that The Fed’s independence is supposed to act as a counterbalance to these political whims.

    “America’s deep divisions also make the central bank’s independence crucial. Fighting inequality and climate change are very far from the Fed’s central mission.”

    The long-term risks from asset bubbles and fiscal dominance dwarf the short-term risk of putting the brakes on a booming economy in 2022.

    “If they want to do all this and risk our reserve currency status, risk an asset bubble blowing up, so be it. But I think we ought to at least have a conversation about it,” Druckenmiller said.

    “If we’re going to monetize our debt and we’re going to enable more and more of this spending, that’s why I’m worried now for the first time that within 15 years we lose reserve currency status and of course all the unbelievable benefits that have accrued with it,” he added.

    Central banks have been the root of a lack of confidence in dollar stability.

    “5-6 years ago I said Crypto was the solution in search of a problem. That’s why I didn’t play crypto the first wave because we already have the dollar, why do we need crypto for?

    The problem has been clearly identified. It is Jerome Powell and the rest of the world’s central bankers. There is a lack of trust.“

    Druckenmiller is not alone in his acknowledgement that The Fed is at the heart of driving wealth inequality in America as even left-leaning Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, admitted:

    “The low-interest environment increases inequality by increasing the wealth of people who are well off.”

    As ProPublica reports, economists are beginning to view the interplay of the Fed’s actions and inequality in a new light. Central bankers used to think that “we didn’t have to worry about inequality when we did monetary policy,” Olivier Blanchard, former director of research for the International Monetary Fund, said during a December virtual forum sponsored by the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Blanchard said he has since come to believe that monetary policy does impact economic inequality because a change in interest rates has “major, major distribution effects between borrowers and lenders, between asset holders and not.”

    “Inequality is a cumulative process,” said Karen Petrou, author of “The Engine of Inequality: The Fed and the Future of Wealth in America” and managing partner of the Washington-based consulting firm Federal Financial Analytics.

    “The richer you are, the richer you get, and the poorer you are, the poorer you get, unless something puts that engine in reverse,” she said.

    “That engine is driven not by fate or by untouchable phenomena such as demographics but most importantly by policy decisions.”

    Bernanke, currently a fellow at the Brookings Institution, admitted in a 2017 Brookings paper that:

    “all else equal, higher stock prices mean greater inequality of wealth.”

    Janet Yellen, now Treasury secretary, asked in a 2014 speech whether income inequality is “compatible with values rooted in our nation’s history,” but she largely defended ultra-low rates during a Q&A at a 2013 conference of business journalists.

    Older savers were “suffering from low returns on their CDs,” she said, but “they have children and they have grandchildren” who will benefit from the stronger economy.

    Except, as Druckenmiller began this diatribe, as the Fed pumps more money into the financial system by buying Treasury securities and indirectly supporting federal stimulus programs, the run-up in stock markets is likely to continue – and leave people even further behind than they already were.

    Glaring and expanding wealth inequality is destructive to society. While there will always be inequality and successful capitalism should rightfully reward those that work hard and come up with great business concepts the artificial exponential enrichment of the few by a “government created agency” (Jay Powell) is not in the purview of the Fed’s mandate.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/16/2021 – 18:30

  • New York's Pride March Bans Police Officers From Marching
    New York’s Pride March Bans Police Officers From Marching

    Authored by Jonathan Turley,

    One of the oldest celebrations of the LGBTQ community in the world has been New York City’s annual Pride celebration. The parade began 51 years ago and has long been a symbol of the strength, defiance, and pride of this community. The whole idea was to show the full spectrum of LGBTQ influence, participation, and expression in our society. This year, however, activists have decided to discriminate against one group: police officers.

    In a parade that was found to reject discrimination in every form, the organizers have told the Gay Officers Action League and other such groups that they will not be allowed to march. Their presence is viewed as a threat to others in the parade and a denial of a “safe space” for LGBTQ members. It is hard to imagine a more antithetical position for the parade in excluding officers who are part of the community and who want to publicly stand with other LGBTQ members.

    The organizers have announced that police and corrections officers will be barred from participating in the parade until at least 2025.  They declared “The sense of safety that law enforcement is meant to provide can instead be threatening, and at times dangerous, to those in our community who are most often targeted with excessive force and/or without reason.”

    The Gay Officers Action League, an organization of L.G.B.T.Q. police, denounced the decision on Friday night. In addition, the NYPD is being asked to remain at least a block away from all events to ensure a safe environment for participants.

    Activists have long opposed police participation and cite the anti-police riot  outside the Stonewall Inn in Manhattan. However, the police participants have marched to show that the NYPD does not just support the LGBTQ community but includes officers from the community. It is the very rejection of the image of the Stonewall Inn riot and a testament to the progress made not just by the LGBTQ community but the NYPD.

    Nevertheless, Beverly Tillery, the executive director of the New York City Anti-Violence Project insists that “[t]he issue is, how do we make Pride safe for the people who feel the most marginalized and have often been left out of the conversations about how Pride is run?”

    It is a terrible setback and insult for officers and their predecessors, who had to sue for the right to march in uniform and did so for the first time in 1996. They have fought to diversify the ranks of the NYPD and show that there are officers not just supportive but part of the LGBTQ community. That would seem an incredibly powerful and reassuring message to send to community members. The growing numbers each year showed the progress that has been achieved since 1978 when New York City mayor Ed Koch banned discrimination in police hiring on the basis of sexual orientation (over the objection of the Patrolmen’s Benevolent Association).

    On November 2, 1969, Craig Rodwell, Fred Sargeant, Ellen Broidy and Linda Rhodes called for an annual march  for all “Homophile organizations.” The march was envisioned as a statement against exclusionary limits of every kind for members of the community:

    We propose that a demonstration be held annually on the last Saturday in June in New York City to commemorate the 1969 spontaneous demonstrations on Christopher Street and this demonstration be called CHRISTOPHER STREET LIBERATION DAY. No dress or age regulations shall be made for this demonstration.

    We also propose that we contact Homophile organizations throughout the country and suggest that they hold parallel demonstrations on that day. We propose a nationwide show of support.

    GOAL is one such organization and shows how much has changed since this call for a unifying celebration of everyone within this community. It was created in 1982 and each year around 200 of its members and their families participated in the march.

    They have now been told that they are not welcomed as a perceived threat to their own community. I cannot think of a message more counter to traditions or values of the annual parade.  A movement based on inclusion has now embraced exclusion as a defining value.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/16/2021 – 18:00

  • Following The 'Science'? CDC Shifts From "Impending Doom" To 'You're Free' In 6 Weeks
    Following The ‘Science’? CDC Shifts From “Impending Doom” To ‘You’re Free’ In 6 Weeks

    At the end of March, amid absolutely no signs of trouble whatsover in “the data” – and after the establishment excoriated the “neanderthal thinking” of several red states for ‘prematurely’ and ‘recklessly’ lifting their COVID restrictions, freshly-appointed CDC Director Rochelle Walensky went “off-script” (though if one watches here eyes it appears she is very much reading a script) to warn the public about her “impending doom” following a very modest rise in COVID cases and hospitalizations.

    “Right now, I’m scared,” Walesky, choking back tears, exclaimed.

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    Fauci doubled-down with the doom finger-pointing…

    “I think the reason we’re seeing this plateauing and the increase that I hope doesn’t turn into a surge is because we are really doing things prematurely right now with regard to opening up.”

    At the time we pointed out that Walensky’s level of fearmongering is disgusting and disingenuous and the American people are growing more and more insensitive to such evocations.

    Now, just 6 weeks later, as all the doomsaying, fearmongering, panic-inducing double-speak was proven completely misplaced, and amid political pressure from even the leftest of leftists to “do something”, the masks are off and freedom (for the vaccinated) is offered back to ‘we, the people’.

    Just two weeks after announcing a mask revision on April 27 to allow people who are fully vaccinated to do most things outdoors, with some precautions – again amid political pressure from an increasingly confused American public –  CDC announced it revised its mask guidance again, now enabling those who are fully vaccinated to forgo wearing masks both indoors and outdoors.

    “Anyone who is fully vaccinated can participate in indoor and outdoor activities — large or small — without wearing a mask or physically distancing,” said Walensky.

    “Based on the continuing downward trajectory of cases, the scientific data on the performance of our vaccines and our understanding of how the virus spreads, that moment has come for those who are fully vaccinated,” she continued.

    The message from the CDC could not have changed more drastically in this brief 45 days period…

    Source: Bloomberg

    And if the goal of the ‘big lie’ of impending doom was to ‘encourage’ scared Americans to get vaccinated or die, once again the ‘science’ in the data shows it didn’t work either as daily vaccination rates have basically trended lower since Walensky’s scaremongering…

    Source: Bloomberg

    As Stephen Miller notes, Fauci said on Mother’s Day (one week ago) that the country would not be close to back to normal until a year from now, including masks… and today, he told CBS’s “Face The Nation” on Sunday that:

    “the accumulation of all of those scientific facts, information and evidence brought the CDC to make that decision, to say, now when you’re vaccinated, you don’t need to wear a mask, not only outdoors, but you don’t need to wear it indoors.”

    Amazing what politics science can do!?

    But Walensky assures the country that, “We followed the science here.”

    Political science?

    In an interview on “Fox News Sunday,” Walensky was asked what went into the CDC’s decision to shift from its previous position on wearing masks. As host Chris Wallace noted, as of Wednesday night, Walensky was still arguing that fully vaccinated Americans should continue to wear masks indoors. On Thursday, however, the updated CDC guidelines stated that those who have been fully vaccinated “can resume activities that you did prior to the pandemic” and do not have to wear a mask or socially distance in most indoor and outdoor settings.

    Wallace then pointed to the “increasing pressure” from the public and members of Congress, such as Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), who expressed during a Senate hearing “incredible frustration” with an apparent disconnect between science and health officials who say they follow science.

    “Can you state flatly to the American people that pressure had nothing to do with the abrupt shift in the CDC guidelines?” Wallace asked.

    “Yes, I can,” Walensky responded. “I can tell you it certainly would have been easier if the science had evolved a week earlier and I didn’t have to go to Congress making those statements, but I’m delivering the science as the science is delivered to the medical journals.”

    “And, you know, it evolved over this last week, the cases came down over the last two weeks,” she continued. “I delivered it as soon as I can when we had that information available.”

    Walensky’s comments also come as the CDC faces allegations that it changed its school reopening guidelines under the influence of American Federation of Teachers (AFT), the second-largest teachers’ union in the United States. According to numerous emails obtained by the New York Post, AFT reviewed a draft of those guidelines, and the CDC adopted at least two of the union’s recommendations nearly verbatim in the final release.

    “Recently released emails reportedly show that the CDC has been taking its cues from teachers’ unions instead of following the science,” a group of four Republican members of Congress wrote in a letter to Walensky, demanding explanation regarding the NY Post exposé.

    “This political interference has resulted in months-long delays in the opening of schools to the detriment of American children.”

    Science, schmience!

    Of course there are some who refuse to believe the CDC’s “new science” – that masks are not required because outdoor spread is for all intent and purpose non-existent for anyone and indoor spread from or to the vaccinated is negligible at worst – and choose to continue to signal their virtue…

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    And of course, AOC told her instagram followers…“Personally I’m going to keep wearing my mask in shared indoor public spaces…it’s also a nice accessory when you don’t want to do all your make-up…”

    “Science-deniers?”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/16/2021 – 17:55

  • The Fed Is Going To Make A Mistake
    The Fed Is Going To Make A Mistake

    Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

    Well, that didn’t work out as planned. Last week, we said:

    “Notably, the ‘money flow buy signal’ seemed to cross; however, we need some follow-through action on Monday to confirm. As shown, the uptick in money flows did allow us to add some exposure to portfolios in holdings we had taken profits in with the previous ‘sell’ signal.”

    Well, that follow-through failed to occur. Not only did the “buy signal” not trigger, but the market also broke down through the previous consolidation range. As I said, it did not work out as planned. The last exposure we took on is now pressuring the portfolio momentarily, but we should benefit from the turn if we are correct.

    With markets deeply oversold on a short-term basis, with signals at levels that generally precede short-term rallies, the rally on Thursday and Friday was not unexpected. Notably, the S&P 500 did hold support at the 50-dma and rallied back into the previous trading range. Furthermore, institutional investors have cut their exposures by 50% in just two weeks, primarily big tech, which provides fuel for a rally.

    We will hold exposures at current levels for now. However, instead of looking for a more extended rally into mid-summer, we suspect this rally will be pretty short-lived.

    As stated last week, overall, the market trend remains bullish, so there is no need to be overly defensive. We still expect to see a deeper correction as stimulus fades from the system in the next month. At that point, we will become more defensive in positioning as the peak of economic growth and earnings becomes more apparent.

    An Inflation Primer

    On Thursday’s “3-Minutes” video, I review the recent inflation numbers to put them into perspective. While there is some panic over the headline numbers, there are valid reasons to expect inflationary pressures to be transient.

    As stated above, we expect inflation to subside later this year, along with economic growth.

    As such, we continue to focus on our risk management accordingly for now. If we are correct in our assessment about the roll-off effect of stimulus and liquidity, we could well see bonds outperform stocks in 2022. We are watching very closely as we currently hold minimal duration in our fixed-income portfolios. If we begin to see the very negative sentiment on bonds reverse, as inflationary pressures subside, we could well see an excellent buying opportunity.

    The problem for the markets is the Fed is going to be late.

    Rates Doing The “Fed’s Work”

    In last week’s message, we said:

    “Over the next couple of months, there will be an evident surge in inflation, which the Fed wanted. However, that surge in inflation may come in a lot “hotter” than they anticipated. If that occurs, bond yields will jump higher, effectively “tightening” monetary policy very quickly.”

    Such is what we saw on Thursday as bond yields jumped to nearly 1.7%. While rates did fall back mildly on Friday, the rise in rates from the August lows increases the cost of capital. (Chart shows the percentage increase in rates versus the annual inflation rate,)

    Given the long and highly correlated history of GDP, Inflation, and Interest Rates, it is no surprise to see rates pacing inflation currently. As noted in “No, Bonds Aren’t Over-Valued.”

    “As shown, the correlation between rates and the economic composite suggests that current expectations of sustained economic expansion and rising inflation are overly optimistic. At current rates, economic growth will likely very quickly return to sub-2% growth by 2022.”

    Note: The “economic composite” is a compilation of inflation (CPI), economic growth (GDP), and wages.

    At the peak of nominal economic growth over the last decade, interest rates rose to 3% as GDP temporarily hit 6%. However, rates correctly predicted that economic growth would return to its long-term downtrend, and inflation would decline. Bonds were right as the economy fell into recession in 2020.

    Once again, economists predict 6% or better economic growth, yet interest rates are roughly 50% lower than previously. The bond market is screaming that:

    • Economic growth will average between 1.75% and 2% over the next few years; and,

    • Deflation still trumps inflation.

    Moreover, the Fed is manipulating inflation expectations.

    The Fed Is Driving Inflation Expectations

    In recent months, market participants continue to rely heavily on implied inflation expectations. The reliance led to much media-driven commentary relating to allocation decisions in the “inflationary environment.” From that analysis, investors piled into materials, energy, and financial companies, which did indeed provide short-term outperformance. The more deflationary sectors of technology, staples, and utilities, not surprisingly, underperformed.

    The problem is that the “market-based” expectations aren’t market-based at all. The first graph below shows the massive amounts of inflation-protected Treasury bonds and notes. Such large purchases create distortions in the very market investors are relying on for inflationary information. Instead, the Fed is skewing the implied inflation calculations.

    The following chart from our analyst, Nick Lane, shows the history of these purchases and the impact on inflationary expectations.

    Just as the Fed’s monetary interventions distorted signals in the asset market, those interventions are now distorting signals in the TIPs market.

    In other words, investors depend on signals from the market to allocate capital and adjust allocations. However, when those signals get manipulated, false readings can lead to significant future dislocations when reality collides with fantasy.

    Such is why the Fed will make a mistake.

    The Fed Is Going To Make A Mistake

    As discussed, the “base effects” (comparison versus last year’s data) make price inflation appear much higher than it is. The graph below puts the CPI indexes in context with their trends of the previous five years.

    Currently, the broad CPI index is only .011% above its trend. The Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is 1.06% above its trend. If the inflationary impulse is transitory and dies out over the next few months, inflation data will end close to where it was pre-pandemic.

    The Fed is now potentially in a difficult position with inflationary “expectations” rising, caused by their actions, which  increases the risk of a “policy mistake.” 

    Given the Fed waited so long into the economic cycle to hike rates they weren’t able to gain much of a spread before the economy contracted. Historically, there have been ZERO times the Federal Reserve hiked rates that did not negatively affect outcomes.

    The problem for the Fed is that the bond market is not worried about surging inflation. Despite economic growth expectations of as much as 6%, interest rates are trading below 2%. Given the close correlation shown above, it is a message you should not dismiss quickly.

    The “real economy” is heavily debt-financed, and as such, cannot withstand substantially higher rates. Consequently, the Fed is caught between hiking rates to quell transient inflationary pressures, thereby deflating the most significant asset bubble in financial history, or doing nothing and hoping no one pushes the “big red button.”

    Unfortunately, history is full of instances where someone panicked.

    Portfolio Update

    “The road to hell gets paved with good intentions.” – Unknown

    As noted above, our attempt to “front-run” our “money flow signal” did not work out as planned as the signal did not turn.  While we did not take on a tremendous amount of exposure, the increased exposure to the decline mid-week was certainly not part of our plans.

    As is always the case, technical analysis works best when you wait for the signals to occur. While a harsh lesson to relearn, the damage was minimal. With market risk reduced, our entry levels should perform over the next couple of weeks.

    Timing is always the tricky part.

    As Michael Lebowitz concluded in “Fortify Your Wealth:”

    “Given the economic climate and extreme market risks and rewards, we continue to take an agnostic view of markets. We do not get wed to opinions of economic activity or inflation, or how they may steer markets. 

    Paying top dollar for assets requires independent thinking and careful attention to market activity. From the brightest traders on Wall Street to the halls of the Federal Reserve and in the studios of the self-anointed media economic experts, there is zero appreciation for the potential of massive forecasting errors.”

    Historically, investors get rewarded for going against the crowd. Such is especially the case when the masses are in agreement on what the future holds.

    “When all experts agree, something else is bound to happen.” – Bob Farrell.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/16/2021 – 17:00

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May 16

Today’s News 16th May 2021

  • The End Of Western Globalia?
    The End Of Western Globalia?

    Via TheSwarmBlog.com,

    Since the 1970’s, international trade has continuously been promoted by leaders of developed countries and economic agents.

    Several theoretical frameworks have been put forward to explain the benefits of a free trade environment, from Adam Smith’s concept of absolute advantages to more recent firm-based theories. However, the reality is much more nuanced, especially after China’s entry into the WTO in 2001, and questions arise as to the sustainability of the current model.

    While the development of free trade activity could be regarded as a sound intellectual victory for Western capitalism, such trend has paradoxically weakened several countries in Europe and America.

    • The first side effect of economic globalism in the West has been the retreat of manufacturing in several economies like the United States, with durable unemployment issues as a result. Beyond social impacts, Canadian author Vaclav Smil argued that a manufacturing decline is structurally problematic as it affects the ability of a country to innovate on the long run.

    • The second reason to be skeptical about international trade is the multiplication of structural imbalances in the global economy, with unstainable surpluses and deficits everywhere. An economy displaying a growing trade deficit is getting poorer with respect to foreign economies, leading to a financial and/or social crisis in the end. To understand that, it is necessary to imagine a country whose currency is backed by something tangible (e.g. gold). In that case, a deficit means that the country owes metals to the rest of the world. Of course, current account deficits can be offset by financial inflows, but as there’s no free lunch in economics, that should not be seen as a long-term solution.

    • Last but not least, the rise of global trade and countries specialization has led to a system full of frictions and highly vulnerable to shocks (whatever their size). This has been well documented and explained by research in complex systems including econophysics (see It’s the Complexity Stupid). One could imagine a local natural disaster disrupting the global car industry supply chain (e.g. Japan earthquake and tsunami 2011), a small shipping incident blocking a large part of maritime trade (e.g. Suez Canal obstruction 2021), or even a tiny pathogen freezing the global economy for several months (e.g. COVID-19 pandemic).

    In other words, a problem affecting local factories in some regions of Asia or mining facilities in Chile is likely to impact most economies in the world. In other words, the more specialized countries are in terms of economic production, the more dependent on foreign production they become, and the more vulnerable to distant events they will be.

    The Trade War Black Swan

    All that being said, imagine what happens if US-China tensions keep on rising and if the global economy gradually splits into two different markets. While America has turned more protectionist since Trump’s election in 2016, China has made it clear that they will implement a “Made in China for China” economic policy for the coming years (and even decades) as economic independence has become one of the main goals of Xi Jinping.

    I do not know how well Western economic agents are prepared for such a scenario, as most people display Gaussian-like behavior and always bet on a return to normal. But the consequences of a structural change in the global trade activity could be significant for the rest of the world, especially for net importers depending too much on foreign producers for materials or key technological components.

    People may argue that the world is getting more and more interconnected and that a large-scale economic network is likely to continue to expand on the long run. That is correct on a long timeline, but it could be proven wrong during our lifetimes.

    From that perspective, interesting lessons can be learned from the decline of the Western Roman Empire.

    The Fall of Rome

    Studying the transitional period from the Roman Empire to Middles Ages (also known as Late Antiquity), British archeologist Bryan Ward-Perkins explained that “the fall of Rome” was a brutal decline during the 5th and the 6th century.

    More interestingly, Ward-Perkins argued that before the 5th century, a large and complex trade network had emerged in the Western Empire, leading to strong economic activity in most provinces and a high level of technology with respect to Middles Ages. For instance, regions specialized in the production of weapons for the legions, others on certain types of pottery, etc.

    Ward-Perkins noted that after decades of so-called “Barbarians invasions,” economic activity showed serious signs of decline in the Empire, as evidenced by the collapse of manufactured goods such as pottery or “high-end” building materials. Besides, archaeological excavations also lead to the conclusion that the use of coins significantly diminished during that period.

    Since every region became dependent on the others, the economic foundations of the Western Empire became vulnerable to any disruptive event. And this is what happened for two centuries. It is interesting to note that in the same time the Byzantine Empire was experiencing relative peace and economic boom, as evidenced by archaeological findings.

    As the economy of the West was hit by several shocks, the Roman Empire got caught in a vicious circle, meaning that wars and defeats led to weaker supply activity in some regions, resulting in economic problems everywhere, budget issues, less transfers to the legions, social unrest, and thus further military defeats, and so on.

    The example of the Western Roman Empire is striking, as its collapse also led to a serious decline in terms of technology. Thus, the question is whether it is a relevant proxy for the current Western capitalist empire.

    No one knows for sure, but as Ward-Perkins wrote in 2005: “Romans before the fall were as certain as we are today that their world would continue forever substantially unchanged. They were wrong. We would be wise not to repeat their complacency.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/15/2021 – 23:30

  • Visualizing Key Generation-Defining Events In US History
    Visualizing Key Generation-Defining Events In US History

    Looking back at history is a necessity when trying to understand what the future may hold.

    Using insights from our Generational Power Index 2021 report, along with survey data from Pew Research in 2016, Visual Capitalist’s Iman Ghosh identified some key milestones for each cohort, to understand how these events helped shape each generation’s unique perspectives.

    Quick Context on Generational Definitions

    Before diving in, it’s important to clarify which generations we’ve included in our research, along with their age and birth year ranges.

    These generational categories aren’t universal, but we went with the most widely cited definitions from reputable U.S. sources including the Pew Research and the U.S. Federal Reserve. It’s also worth noting that these generational definitions are somewhat specific to North America. For this reason, the focus is on U.S. historic events.

    Defining Events: Silent Generation

    The oldest members of the Silent Generation were 11 years old at the start of World War II, and were teenagers by the time it ended. In other words, their formative years fell smack dab in the middle of one of the biggest international conflicts in modern history.

    Because of this, it makes sense that World War II ranks as the second most impactful event in their lifetimes, trailing only the far more recent Sept. 11 terrorist attacks (2001).

    Most Impactful Historic Events, Silent Gen (Survey Results)

    In fact, the Silent Generation cited four different wars on their list, more than any other cohort. For context, Boomers identified three conflicts (including the Cold War), while Millennials only referenced one (Iraq/Afghanistan).

    Of course, other not-so-violent events made the list as well. And interestingly, some of these impressionable moments occurred later on in life.

    For example, the youngest members of The Silent Generation were already in their mid-t0-late forties when cellphones became common in the ‘90s—yet, 27% identified the tech revolution as one of the top 10 most impactful events that happened in their lifetime.

    Clearly, life never stops throwing you curve balls—no matter how far along you might be.

    Most Notable Historical Events: Baby Boomers

    Many of the historical experiences cited by Baby Boomers were related to war and violent acts. For instance, Boomers identified two assassinations on their list—John F. Kennedy’s in 1963, and Martin Luther King’s in 1968.

    Most Impactful Historic Events, Boomers (Survey Results)

    For this generation, the moon landing in 1969 made the cut, as did Barack Obama’s election win in 2008.

    Baby Boomers only identified one event that was unique to their cohort (Martin Luther King’s death). It’s worth noting that responses varied between Americans of different racial backgrounds. Not surprisingly, Black Americans were far more likely to name MLK’s death as a top defining moment.

    Most Notable Historical Events: Gen X

    For Gen Xers, two unique events made their list: the Challenger disaster (1986) and the Gulf War (1991). Interestingly, neither of of these events stood out for other generations.

    The Challenger disaster impact was widely felt because it involved civilians alongside astronauts, making the space shuttle’s explosion all the more notorious.

    Most Impactful Historic Events, Gen Xers (Survey Results)

    Hurricane Katrina (which occurred in 2005) is the only natural disaster to make it on any of these lists. The hurricane—which caused a significant share of New Orleans’ population to resettle—left a lasting impression on the nation.

    Most Notable Historical Events: Millennials

    Millennials remember the September 11 attacks the most of all generations, with 86% citing it as their most influential event. They also paid close attention to the aftermath of this occurrence, as marked by the inclusion of both the Iraq/Afghanistan wars and the death of Osama Bin Laden among their most notable events.

    Most Impactful Historic Events, Millennials (Survey Results)

    Sadly, a lot of Millennials recollect instances of gun violence more than any other generation, from Orlando and Columbine to Sandy Hook.

    Last but not least, Millennials are the only generation to note the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, and the subsequent Great Recession, as a momentous event. This makes sense considering many of them began their careers in its aftermath.

    Gen Z and Younger

    The Pew Research survey data was collected in 2016, so opinions on more recent events have not been collected.

    That said, it could be premature to say in the short term which events will leave a lasting impression on generations, young and old.

    According to the above data, the election of Barack Obama was a lasting milestone in recent history. Will the election of Donald Trump leave a similar impact? How will COVID-19 be regarded in the future? Time will tell which events will define future generations.

    Moments, Movements, and Everything in Between

    One key takeaway worth emphasizing is just how varied these formative events can be. Some were experienced as a single moment, while others were a culmination of shifts over several years.

    It’s also clear that timing and duration are not the only determining factors behind an event’s influence on American society. For example, the moon landing was a tangible moment with a date stamp, whereas the tech revolution has a much fuzzier start (before exploding in significance alongside the Dotcom boom and bust).

    Also interesting is what is absent from the top results. For example, the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 is barely referenced.

    In short, a variety of impactful events and more gradual revolutions have made their mark on American society. Some have influenced specific generations, while others have transcended generational boundaries and unified the American public.

    Download the Generational Power Report (.pdf)

     

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/15/2021 – 23:00

  • Denying Reality Leads To Tyranny And Societal Failure
    Denying Reality Leads To Tyranny And Societal Failure

    Authored by Patrick Barron via The Mises Institute,

    The common thread that connects failed societies, from Weimar Germany to the Soviet Union, is an almost pathological insistence on denying reality. Weimar Germany denied that masses of printed money would destroy civilized society. The Soviet Union insisted that Soviet Man would emerge spontaneously from the ashes of capitalist society. Weimar Germany spawned Nazi Germany. Nazi Germany was completely destroyed, both physically and politically, by the World War II Allies. Mercifully, the Soviet Union simply collapsed after seventy years of consuming capital to achieve the phantom of the classless society. Today both Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union are synonymous with tyranny and failure. Both nations murdered millions. Both nations no longer exist. True, Germany exists as does Russia, but I contend that both are new nations. Neither is perfect, but neither claims a political heritage to the nation that preceded it.

    Pathological policy errors flowed inexorably from a skewed view of reality in both Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union. Once this view of reality was deemed to be above criticism, its champions adopted increasingly tyrannical policies. Nazi Germany’s Aryan Supremacy racial theories seemingly justified the murder of the handicapped, Gypsies, those of alternative sexual orientation, Jews, and Slavs. In the name of birthing a new Soviet Man, the Soviet Union murdered anyone who stood in the way of its program to confiscate all businesses, including small farms. When businesses and farms failed, there was no soul searching as to root causes that might lie in Marxism itself. No, the problem had to be saboteurs within society. Reality, you see, was what the Soviet Union’s Politburo said it was. As the vanguard of the proletariat, the Politburo stood outside society and saw its flaws. Those who disagreed were blind to this insight and had to be eliminated.

    Chasing the Phantoms of Alternative Reality

    Today the West especially is adopting policies that flow from alternative realities that, frankly, do not exist.

    Here I list just a few:

    1. Catastrophic global warming/climate change is caused by man and must be stopped. I prefer to qualify the term “global warming/climate change” by the adjective “catastrophic”. Is the world warming? Who knows? Is the climate changing? Probably. But neither global warming nor climate change is “catastrophic”. Yet it has become almost an article of faith that the earth is on the precipice of an environmental catastrophe, requiring ever more radical handicaps on our freedoms and the economy.

    2. White privilege in the US is responsible for crimes against minorities and disparities in wealth. This critical race theory has spawned witch hunts for secret and shadowy white supremacist groups especially in the military, which has empowered investigators to find evidence of these groups and root them out. It will be imperative that these investigators actually uncover such groups, whether they exist or not. Critical race theory is the old Marxist class struggle theory in new clothes. The Marxist class struggle theory postulated that we all are born into a class and cannot escape its prejudices. But notice that the Marxist and now the Race theorists consider that they themselves are not susceptible to the prejudices in which all the rest of us are trapped. Very convenient, eh?

    3. Covid-19 is an existential threat to human life on earth. Constitutionally guaranteed human rights may be violated with impunity. Who gets to decide all this? Why, elected officials and government bureaucrats, of course.

    4. Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) explains that government need not moderate its spending. Government can always manufacture more money in order to fund new programs and pay its debts . More government spending can always prevent a drop in aggregate demand. Government debt is irrelevant, because “we owe it to ourselves”. MMT gave government elected officials exactly what they always wanted–carte blanche to spend, spend, and spend some more and not worry about justifying or prioritizing spending. As Keynes actually said, pay people to dig holes in the ground and pay others to fill them back up. What could possibly go wrong?

    Champions of the above denials of reality refuse to discuss whether their view of reality is accurate. All are articles of faith and cannot be questioned. In fact, to question them is considered to be an admission of ignorance, guilt, or perfidy. One wants to destroy Mother Earth, enslave minorities, kill innocent people, and prevent all in society from enjoying unlimited prosperity. It’s the old straw man fallacy on steroids. Furthermore, resources will be expended to pursue these phantoms, and more resources will be expended to protect oneself from being caught in a witch hunt. Society will live in fear–fear of global warming, fear of being branded a racist, fear of contracting a dread disease. Unfortunately, what society does not fear is that our lifetime’s savings will be wiped out by inflation made possible by MMT.

    The Basics of Reality

    Contrast these phantoms with the pragmatic basics of sound economics: namely, that in order to prosper man must face the reality of human existence—primarily scarcity and uncertainty. People’s preferences must be accepted at face value. Man acts. This is an irrefutable axiom in that to deny it is to confirm its validity. His action is rational in the sense that he believes that his action will improve his condition. He understands cause and effect. He performs one act at a time. He performs the most important act first; in other words, he ranks his actions in order of importance. Performing an act means that he must sacrifice the execution of others until later; in other words, acting means giving up some other preference, at least until some later time. Man’s ordinal ranking of preferences means that the cost of an action is determined by what he eschews until later. No two men have the identical ordinal ranking of preferences; plus, the preferences cannot be assigned a cardinal value in order to compare one man’s preferences with another. Man discovers the concept of comparative advantage and adopts the division of labor in order to accomplish more. Through the market process, man adopts a universal medium of exchange (money) in order to break the tyranny of direct barter. Now man can indirectly exchange his specialized production for a universal medium of exchange in order to obtain his real wants. Man invents government as a specialized service in order to protect his person and his property at a lower cost. He invents law in order to adjudicate inevitable disputes.

    All this is reality. Peaceful exchange requires social cooperation, which brings about peace and prosperity among men everywhere. As advice columnist Ann Landers used to say, Wake up and smell the coffee!

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/15/2021 – 22:30

  • IRS Launches Crackdown To Ensure Crypto Investors Pay Their Taxes
    IRS Launches Crackdown To Ensure Crypto Investors Pay Their Taxes

    Yesterday’s news that the DoJ and IRS are digging into Binance amid whispers about allegations of tax fraud, manipulation and AML violations was just the latest indication from the government that it is taking enforcement of securities taxes tied to crypto wealth very seriously. In case that wasn’t already clear, WSJ published a story in its “Tax Report” section (with the federal tax deadline just days away at May 17) reminding readers that the IRS under President Joe Biden is coming for your crypto wealth – and those that don’t cough it up might be subject to harsh penalties, both financial and criminal.

    It starts by reminding readers that two new IRS investigations to catch crypto tax cheats targeting various exchanges have been launched in recent months. In April, a judge in Boston approved an IRS summons to the payments company Circle and its affiliates, including the crypto exchange Poloniex. In May, a judge in San Francisco approved a similar summons for records from Kraken, another exchange based in California. Both summonses apply to customers who have traded more than $20K in crypto in any single year between 2016 and 2020.

    “With these summonses and other actions, the IRS is mounting a full-court press to show taxpayers how seriously it takes cryptocurrency compliance,” says Don Fort, a former chief of IRS criminal investigation now with Kostelanetz & Fink. “Taxpayers should take it seriously too.”

    Crypto exchanges don’t report client information to the IRS like discount digital brokerages do, so there’s temptation for traders to try and skate by. But if this approach worked in the past, be warned: that could change this year now that the Dems are back in power.

    Binance doesn’t even allow American customers to trade on its platform (though it has been accused of illegally doing so by turning a blind eye to users trying to skirt this rule), but other investigations and summonses of note go back even further. In 2016, the IRS received approval for a similar summons for Coinbase and obtained information for about 13K customers. The agency sent letters urging many of them to make sure their crypto taxes were paid, as the IRS might soon be taking a hard look.

    Admissions from the IRS in court filings suggest this tactic has been working for the agency. In one filing to justify its summonses, the the agency said it had received more than 1,000 amended tax returns and collected $13 million from crypto holders with more than $20,000 of transactions, plus another $12 million from other crypto notices, and audits are ongoing.

    Remember, those who are caught skirting taxes often are forced to enter the IRS’s Voluntary Disclosure program for taxpayers with criminal liability, a program that usually lets participants out of prosecution but imposes large penalties.

    Another filing hinted at a different strategy being employed by the agency: the agency plans to compare data it receives from Kraken to data on offshore crypto transactions. It didn’t identify the source of this offshore data to look for discrepancies. Kraken may also soon need to turn over phone numbers, email addresses, DoBs, tax ID numbers and other sensitive details as part of the subpoena.

    With all this in mind, here’s a few quick reminders from WSJ:

    When it comes to crypto tax laws, here are the basics: In 2014, the IRS declared that cryptocurrencies are property, not currencies like the dollar, and therefore are treated like an investment property akin to stocks. If an investor sells crypto after holding it for longer than a year, the profit is a typically considered a long-term capital gain, and taxed at lower rates than ordinary income under current law (although Congress may soon change this for the highest earners).

    If the holding period is a year or less, the profit is a taxed as a short-term capital gain as the same rate as ordinary income like wages. Capital losses on crypto investments can offset taxable capital gains on other assets as well as crypto, plus up to $3,000 of ordinary income such as wages a year—a valuable benefit. Unused losses can be carried forward to future years.

    Tax triggers: Any time a cryptocurrency is bought or sold or spent is a taxable transaction. If you trade bitcoin for dogecoin, that transaction has tax exposure.

    If you buy a tesla, you will owe an additional tax on the transfer on top of any sales taxes you pay. These rules make bitcoin difficult to use for payments, something that regulators no doubt intended.

    Lot identification: Investors who bought the same coin at different prices can often minimize taxes by selling the lot that would give them the smallest tax exposure. For example, say that someone sold bitcoins at $22,000 each in December 2020 and had coins bought in 2016 for $600 and 2017 for $16,000. Selling the 2016 coins would mean a taxable gain of $21,400 each, while selling the 2017 coins would mean a gain of $6,000 each—a big difference.

    Offshore holdings: In late 2020, the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, a Treasury Department unit known as FinCEN, announced that it may soon require US taxpayers holding more than $10,000 of cryptocurrencies offshore to file FinCEN Form 114, known as the FBAR, to report these holdings. But this rule has yet to be adopted, and wasn’t in effect for 2020.

    * * *
    Source: WSJ

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/15/2021 – 22:00

  • Portland Police Union President Says City Is "On The Precipice Of A Gang War"
    Portland Police Union President Says City Is “On The Precipice Of A Gang War”

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

    The president of Portland, Oregon’s police union said in a blistering new statement that the city is on the brink of war.

    “We need to talk about the elephant in the room: gun violence. We are on the precipice of a gang war,” said Daryl Turner, head of the Portland Police Association.

    Police in the state’s largest city had responded to 357 shootings as of May 9, an increase of over 100 percent from the same time period the year prior.

    Portland dealt with a jump in violence in 2020, with both shootings and murders skyrocketing, along with near-nightly riots that regularly diverted attention from 911 calls.

    Officials in the city have tried addressing both matters, escalating the response to rioting and approving $6 million to combat shootings.

    But the city has not brought back the Gun Violence Reduction Team (GVRT) and none of the new funding went to the police. That’s on top of the City Council cutting money for the police force in 2020.

    Turner said that commissioners “only use data when it serves their political agendas” and called what he sees as a continued ignorance of statistics and shifting of blame unacceptable.

    “The GVRT proactively policed with a holistic approach, building partnerships and relationships to get illegal guns off the street. It’s obvious to everyone except for City Council that more guns and increased gang activity mean more violence,” he said in the new statement.

    City Council members are now focused on making additional cuts to the Portland Police Bureau’s budget, which will not address the gun violence epidemic, according to Turner.

    “The answer is that our community deserves a fully staffed police force with a minimum of 1,000 officers and a full budget commitment to addressing gun violence, AND our community deserves adequate social service resources. Forcing us to choose one over the other is short-sighted. Social services and alternatives resources are not a replacement for police officers and common-sense public safety infrastructure,” he said.

    A spokesman for Mayor Ted Wheeler, a Democrat who also serves as police commissioner and sits on the council, declined to comment, referring The Epoch Times to Portland’s Office of Violence Prevention. The office did not respond to an inquiry.

    Nike Green, the office’s director, last month called the jump in shootings “a public health crisis.” Green said the office was using “data, research, and evidence-based practices to prioritize partnerships designed to interrupt cycles of gun violence,” such as programs with violence interrupters, who seek to stop shootings before they happen.

    The other city commissioners did not respond to requests for comment.

    The council on Thursday approved a 2021 budget that includes a $3 million cut to the police bureau, local media reported.

    Commissioner Jo Ann Hardesty, a Democrat, said in a statement that she appreciated the budget not adding “ongoing funds back into the Portland Police Bureau after council reallocated money from the bureau into the Portland Street Response and other community investments last year.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/15/2021 – 21:30

  • PFAS Crisis: Toxic "Forever Chemicals" Found In US Mothers' Breast Milk
    PFAS Crisis: Toxic “Forever Chemicals” Found In US Mothers’ Breast Milk

    New research conducted by Toxic-Free Future, a Seattle-based non-profit fighting for safer products free of deadly chemicals, found that women’s breast milk, especially in the US, contains dangerous levels of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). 

    Erika Schreder, a co-author and science director with Toxic-Free Future, said the findings “are cause for concern” and highlight a possible threat to newborns.

    Schreder collected 50 breast milk samples and discovered that the PFAS contamination was nearly 2,000 times higher than the level of regular drinking water.

    “The study shows that PFAS contamination of breast milk is likely universal in the US and that these harmful chemicals are contaminating what should be nature’s perfect food,” Schreder said.

    PFAS consists of approximately 9,000 compounds and is used in manufacturing clothing, food packaging, cooking products with Teflon, and cleaning products. They are called “forever chemicals” because they do not naturally break down and build-up in humans. 

    The study, titled “Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances (PFAS) in Breast Milk: Concerning Trends for Current-Use PFAS,” was peer-reviewed and published in the Environmental Science and Technology journal on Thursday. It said PFAS chemicals are linked to various diseases such as cancer, thyroid, lower sperm counts, and liver disease. 

    “The study provides more evidence that the PFAS that companies are currently using and putting into products are behaving like the ones they phased out, and they’re also getting into breast milk and exposing children at a very vulnerable phase of development,” she said.

    “Moms work hard to protect their babies, but big corporations are putting these, and other toxic chemicals that can contaminate breast milk, in products when safer options are available,” Schreder continued. 

    Besides breast milk, a separate study by the non-profit Environmental Working Group (EWG) reported 19 million Americans had been exposed to PFAS in their drinking water. EWG researchers found 610 locations, including public water systems, military bases, military and civilian airports, industrial plants, dumps, and firefighter training sites, across the country with dangerous levels of PFAS chemicals in the ground. 

    America appears to have a PFAS problem. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/15/2021 – 21:00

  • A Timeline Of "The Great Reset" Agenda
    A Timeline Of “The Great Reset” Agenda

    Authored by Tim Hinchliffe via GlobalResearch.ca,

    Say it’s 2014 and you’ve had this idea for a technocratic Great Reset of the world economy for some time now, but it only works if the entire planet is rocked by a pandemic. How do you go about selling your idea?

    “The pandemic represents a rare but narrow window of opportunity to reflect, reimagine, and reset our world to create a healthier, more equitable, and more prosperous future” — Klaus Schwab, WEF

    If you are World Economic Forum (WEF) Founder Klaus Schwab, you attempt to sell your vision of a global Utopia via a Great Reset of the world order in three simple steps:

    1. Announce your intention to revamp every aspect of society with global governance, and keep repeating that message

    2. When your message isn’t getting through, simulate fake pandemic scenarios that show why the world needs a great reset

    3. If the fake pandemic scenarios aren’t persuasive enough, wait a couple months for a real global crisis to occur, and repeat step one

    It took Schwab and the Davos elite about six years to watch their great reset ideology grow from a tiny Swiss seed in 2014 to a European super-flower pollinating the entire globe in 2020.

    The so-called “Great Reset” promises to build “a more secure, more equal, and more stable world” if everyone on the planet agrees to “act jointly and swiftly to revamp all aspects of our societies and economies, from education to social contracts and working conditions.”

    But it wouldn’t have been possible to contemplate materializing such an all-encompassing plan for a new world order without a global crisis, be it manufactured or of unfortunate happenstance, that shocked society to its core.

    “In the end, the outcome was tragic: the most catastrophic pandemic in history with hundreds of millions of deaths, economic collapse and societal upheaval” — Clade X pandemic simulation (May, 2018)

    So, in May, 2018, the WEF partnered with Johns Hopkins to simulate a fictitious pandemic — dubbed “Clade X” —  to see how prepared the world be if ever faced with such a crisis.

    A little over a year later, the WEF once again teamed-up with Johns Hopkins, along with the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, to stage another pandemic exercise called Event 201 in October, 2019.

    Both simulations concluded that the world wasn’t prepared for a global pandemic.

    And a few short months following the conclusion of Event 201, which specifically simulated a coronavirus outbreak, the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declared that the coronavirus had reached pandemic status on March 11, 2020.

    “The next severe pandemic will not only cause great illness and loss of life but could also trigger major cascading economic and societal consequences that could contribute greatly to global impact and suffering” — Event 201 pandemic simulation (October, 2019)

    Since then, just about every scenario covered in the Clade X and Event 201 simulations has come into play, including:

    • Governments implementing lockdowns worldwide

    • The collapse of many industries

    • Growing mistrust between governments and citizens

    • A greater adoption of biometric surveillance technologies

    • Social media censorship in the name of combating misinformation

    • The desire to flood communication channels with “authoritative” sources

    • A global lack of personal protective equipment

    • The breakdown of international supply chains

    • Mass unemployment

    • Rioting in the streets

    • And a whole lot more!

    After the nightmare scenarios had fully materialized by mid-2020, the WEF founder declared “now is the time for a “Great Reset” in June of this year.

    Was it excellent forecasting, planning, and modeling on the part of the WEF and partners that Clade X and Event 201 turned out to be so prophetic, or was there something more to it?

    Timeline

    Below is a condensed timeline of events that tracks the Great Reset agenda that went from just a “hope” in 2014 to a globalist ideology touted by royalty, the media, and heads of state the world-over in 2020.

    2014-2017: Klaus Schwab calls for Great Reset and WEF repeats message

    Ahead of the 2014 WEF meeting in Davos, Switzerland, Schwab announced that he hoped the WEF would push the reset button on the global economy.

    The ‘Great Reset’: A Technocratic Agenda that Waited Years for a Global Crisis to Exploit

    The WEF would go on to repeat that message for years.

    Between 2014 and 2017, the WEF called to reshape, restart, reboot, and reset the global order every single year, each aimed at solving various “crises.”

    Then in 2018, the Davos elites turned their heads towards simulating fake pandemic scenarios to see how prepared the world would be in the face of a different crisis.

    2018-2019: WEF, Johns Hopkins & Gates Foundation simulate fake pandemics

    On May 15, 2018, Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security hosted the “Clade X” pandemic exercise in partnership with the WEF.

    The Clade X exercise included mock video footage of actors giving scripted news reports about a fake pandemic scenario (video below).

    The Clade X event also included discussion panels with real policymakers who assessed that governments and industry were not adequately prepared for the fictitious global pandemic.

    “In the end, the outcome was tragic: the most catastrophic pandemic in history with hundreds of millions of deaths, economic collapse and societal upheaval,” according to a WEF report on Clade X.

    “There are major unmet global vulnerabilities and international system challenges posed by pandemics that will require new robust forms of public-private cooperation to address” — Event 201 pandemic simulation (October, 2019)

    Then on October 18, 2019, in partnership with Johns Hopkins and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the WEF ran Event 201.

    During the scenario, the entire global economy was shaken, there were riots on the streets, and high-tech surveillance measures were needed to “stop the spread.”

    Two fake pandemics were simulated in the two years leading up to the real coronavirus crisis.

    “Governments will need to partner with traditional and social media companies to research and develop nimble approaches to countering misinformation” — Event 201 pandemic simulation (October, 2019)

    The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security issued a public statement on January 24, 2020, explicitly addressing that Event 201 wasn’t meant to predict the future.

    “To be clear, the Center for Health Security and partners did not make a prediction during our tabletop exercise. For the scenario, we modeled a fictional coronavirus pandemic, but we explicitly stated that it was not a prediction. Instead, the exercise served to highlight preparedness and response challenges that would likely arise in a very severe pandemic.”

    Intentional or not, Event 201 “highlighted” the “fictional” challenges of a pandemic, along with recommendations that go hand-in-hand with the great reset agenda that has set up camp in the nefarious “new normal.”

    “The next severe pandemic will not only cause great illness and loss of life but could also trigger major cascading economic and societal consequences that could contribute greatly to global impact and suffering” — Event 201 pandemic simulation (October, 2019)

    Together, the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, the World Economic Forum, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation submitted seven recommendations for governments, international organizations, and global business to follow in the event of a pandemic.

    The Event 201 recommendations call for greater collaboration between the public and private sectors while emphasizing the importance of establishing partnerships with un-elected, global institutions such as the WHO, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the International Air Transport Organization, to carry out a centralized response.

    One of the recommendations calls for governments to partner with social media companies and news organization to censor content and control the flow of information.

    “Media companies should commit to ensuring that authoritative messages are prioritized and that false messages are suppressed including though [sic] the use of technology” — Event 201 pandemic simulation (October, 2019)

    According to the report, “Governments will need to partner with traditional and social media companies to research and develop nimble approaches to countering misinformation.

    “National public health agencies should work in close collaboration with WHO to create the capability to rapidly develop and release consistent health messages.

    “For their part, media companies should commit to ensuring that authoritative messages are prioritized and that false messages are suppressed including though [sic] the use of technology.”

    Sound familiar?

    Throughout 2020, Twitter, Facebook, and YouTube have been censoring, suppressing, and flagging any coronavirus-related information that goes against WHO recommendations as a matter of policy, just as Event 201 had recommended.

    Big tech companies have also deployed the same content suppression tactics during the 2020 US presidential election — slapping “disputed” claims on content that question election integrity.

    2020: WEF declares ‘Now is the time for a Great Reset’

    After calling for a great reset in 2014, the Davos crowd repeated the same ideology for a few more years before pivoting towards simulating faux pandemic scenarios.

    A few months after the WEF established that nobody was prepared to deal with a coronavirus pandemic, the WHO declared there was a coronavirus pandemic.

    All of a sudden! the great reset narrative that the WEF had been nurturing for six years, found a place to pitch its tent in the “new normal” camp.

    “The pandemic represents a rare but narrow window of opportunity to reflect, reimagine, and reset our world to create a healthier, more equitable, and more prosperous future,” Schwab declared on June 3, 2020.

    And that’s where we’re at today.

    • The Davos elites said they wanted a global reset of the economy many years ago

    • They role-played what would happen if a pandemic were to occur

    • And now they’re saying that the great reset ideology is the solution to the pandemic, and it must be enacted quickly

    The great reset is a means to an end.

    Next on the agenda is a complete makeover of society under a technocratic regime of un-elected bureaucrats who want to dictate how the world is run from the top down, leveraging invasive technologies to track and trace your every move while censoring and silencing anyone who dares not comply.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/15/2021 – 20:30

  • These Are The World's Top 50 Social Media 'Influencers'
    These Are The World’s Top 50 Social Media ‘Influencers’

    In the modern digital world, social media reach is power.

    The people with the most followers on Twitter, for example, have a massive platform to spread their messages, while those with large, engaged followings on Instagram are an advertiser’s dream sponsor partner.

    Social media can also be an equalizer of power. As Visual Capitalist’s Omri Wallach notes, while it’s true that many celebrities boast large followings across platforms, social media has also enabled previously unknown personalities to turn YouTube or TikTok fame into veritable star power and influence.

    Who has the biggest reach across the entire social media universe? Instead of looking at who has the most followers on Instagram, Twitter, or other networks, we ranked the most-followed personalities across all major platforms combined.

    Who Has the Most Overall Followers on Social Media?

    We parsed through hundreds of the most-followed accounts on multiple platforms to narrow down the top influencers across social media as of April 2021.

    Sources include trackers of the most followers on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitch, and TikTok, verified directly on site and with social media tracker Socialblade.

    The results? A top 50 list of social media influencers consisting of athletes, musicians, politicians, and other personalities.

    Unsurprisingly, celebrities reign supreme on social media. As of April 2021, soccer superstar Cristiano Ronaldo was the most-followed person on social media with almost 500 million total followers.

    But there are other illuminating highlights, such as the global reach of music. With large and diverse fanbases, artists account for half of the top 50 largest social media followings.

    Also notable is the power of Instagram, which was the biggest platform for 67% of the top 50 social media influencers. This includes hard-to-categorize celebrities like the Kardashians and Jenners, which turned reality TV and social media fame into business and media empires.

    Download the Generational Power Report (.pdf)

    The Most Followers on Twitter, TikTok, and YouTube

    However, it’s not only celebrities that dominate social media.

    Personalities that started on one social media platform and developed massive followings include TikTok’s most-followed star Charli D’Amelio and YouTubers Whindersson Nunes Batista, Germán Garmendia, and Felix “PewDiePie” Kjellberg.

    Politicians were also prominent influencers. Former U.S. President Barack Obama has the most followers on Twitter, and India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi has more than 175 million followers across social media.

    Former U.S. President Donald Trump would have also made the list with more than 140 million followers across social media before being banned from multiple platforms on January 8, 2021.

    A Generational Look at Social Media Influence

    While older generations have had to adapt to social media platforms, younger generations have grown up alongside them. As a measure of cultural importance, this gives Gen X, Millennials, and Gen Z a rare leg-up on older generations.

    Millennials, in particular, hold the lion’s share of spots in this top 50 list:

    The average age of the top 50 influencers was just over 37.

    In our Generational Power Index (GPI), which measures the share of power generations hold in various categories, digital platforms were a key area where Millennials derived their power and influence. Overall, Baby Boomers—and to a lesser extent, Gen X—still run the show in most areas of society today.

    Social Media Influence, Going Forward

    As most fans and advertisers know, not all social media accounts and followings are homogenous.

    Many influencers with relatively small followings have more consistent engagement, and are often able to demand high advertising fees as a result.

    Conversely, most social media platforms are reckoning with a severe glut of fake accounts or bots that inflate follower counts, impacting everything from celebrities and politicians to personalities and businesses.

    Regardless, social media has become a mainstay platform (or soapbox) for today’s cultural influencers. Billions of people turn to social media for news, engagement, recommendations, and entertainment, and new platforms are always on the rise.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/15/2021 – 20:00

  • What Is Proof-Of-Stake? How It Differs From Proof-Of-Work
    What Is Proof-Of-Stake? How It Differs From Proof-Of-Work

    Authored by Jeff Benson and Matt Hussey via Decrypto.co,

    In brief

    • Proof of stake is a consensus mechanism, which makes sure that only legitimate transactions get added to blocks.

    • It works by having validators lock up their cryptocurrency to secure the network.

    Mining cryptocurrency is an energy-intensive business. But it doesn’t have to be.

    The Ethereum community has been working to change how the currency is created in order to radically reduce the blockchain’s carbon footprint. The method it’s working toward is called proof of stake (PoS).

    Proof of stake is an alternative to proof of work (PoW), which Bitcoin and Ethereum currently use.

    Both PoS and PoW are examples of consensus mechanisms.

    Consensus Mechanisms

    Public blockchains, at their most basic level, are just databases.

    Most databases set permissions for who can access and edit them. This centralized control is convenient but makes them vulnerable to hacks. By contrast, blockchains make everyone running the software—from exchanges to traders in their basement—responsible for updating them.

    That sounds like it would be messy, which is why blockchains use “consensus mechanisms” or “consensus algorithms.” Consensus mechanisms keep the network humming, making sure that only legitimate transactions get added to blocks. It’s all the nodes—or computers running the blockchain software—checking together to say, “Yes, this is true.”

    In doing so, they guard against 51% attacks, which is when someone gets more than half of the computing power in a distributed network and can then control it.

    Proof of Work

    To prevent attacks, which make it possible to spend funds twice, Bitcoin uses the proof-of-work consensus algorithm. That system asks people to use hardware and electricity to help the network process transactions. In proof of work, miners (or, their computers, to be precise) try to solve fiendishly difficult puzzles in order to be the first to complete a block of transactions. Their work helps to verify the transactions are legitimate. As compensation, they’re rewarded with cryptocurrency such as Bitcoin.

    Proof of work was built into the design of Bitcoin, and replicated by other cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum. However, one of the by-products of this system is it requires a lot of electricity and machines working on a problem in order to solve it.

    Proof of Stake

    Ethereum developers are building a separate set of upgrades, Ethereum 2.0 that will run on proof of stake and will eventually merge with the Ethereum mainnet.

    Proof of stake on Ethereum 2.0 aims to achieve the same outcome as proof of work: to securely verify transactions on the blockchain.

    But whereas PoW miners dedicate hardware resources (large, expensive computers) to secure the network, PoS “validators” dedicate their cryptocurrency. With PoS, to get a chance to verify transactions in a block—and get the associated fees—validators must lock up, or stake, at least 32 ETH that they can’t spend. The blockchain uses that locked-up crypto to secure the network.

    According to the Ethereum Foundation, proof of stake has several advantages over proof of work.

    • 🖥️ Since earning rewards isn’t based on having the most computing power, you don’t need super-fancy hardware.

    • 👨‍💻 That opens up the possibility for more people to participate in running an Ethereum node, which will allow for further decentralization and more resistance to 51% attacks.

    • 🔌 Because of the lower hardware requirements, proof of stake uses far less energy than proof of work.

    How Does the Network Choose?

    Validators are chosen at random by the network to propose new blocks.

    They are also randomly grouped into committees of 128 nodes, which change daily. Every time a new block of transactions is created and added to the blockchain database, the PoS consensus mechanism selects multiple committees to “attest” that the block that’s been proposed is correct.

    Validators receive rewards for both making blocks and attesting to seeing other blocks being made. If validators are offline or not making correct attestations, they receive a penalty. If they try to attack the network, they can lose up to their entire stake.

    The algorithm is designed to make an attack on the network statistically improbable. According to ConsenSys (which funds an editorially independent Decrypt), “There is less than a 1 in a trillion chance that an attacker controlling 1/3 of the validators on the network would control ⅔ of the validators in a committee to successfully execute an attack.”

    The Future

    Ethereum isn’t the first cryptocurrency to use proof of stake.

    Algorand, Cardano, Cosmos, EOS, Polkadot, and Tezos have all implemented a version of proof of stake.

    The Ethereum network is currently in Phase 0 of its upgrade to Ethereum 2.0. While people have staked ETH to the network, it’s not yet ready to be built upon.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/15/2021 – 19:30

  • NASA Rocket Launch Could Dazzle Saturday Night Sky In Eastern US
    NASA Rocket Launch Could Dazzle Saturday Night Sky In Eastern US

    Tens of millions of Americans could be in for a dazzling optical treat Saturday evening as NASA gears up to launch its Black Brant XII sounding rocket carrying the KiNET-X payload from its Wallops Flight Facility in Virginia. 

    A four-stage Black Brant XII rocket carrying the KiNET-X payload will be launched around 2010 ET Saturday. There is a 40-minute launch window. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The rocket “will be used for the mission that includes the release of barium vapor that will form two green-violet clouds that may be visible for about 30 seconds,” NASA said. 

    The mission is called KiNETic-scale energy and momentum transport eXperiment, or KiNet-X. Researchers want to study a fundamental problem in space plasmas: how are energy and momentum transported between different regions of space magnetically connected? 

    What makes this launch so different from Central Florida ones is that barium vapor tracers will be visible for much of the eastern US from the Atlantic coast to the Mississippi River.

    Here’s an example of what millions of Americans might see on Saturday night, weather permitting, of course…

    Live coverage of the launch will be made available on the Wallops IBM video site around 1940 ET on launch day. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/15/2021 – 19:00

  • Fed Goal: Destroy 26% Of Dollar's Buying Power In 15 Years
    Fed Goal: Destroy 26% Of Dollar’s Buying Power In 15 Years

    Authored by Brian McGlinchey via Stark Realities,

    As Americans warily eye new data showing both consumer and producer price inflation heating up beyond expectations, few of them realize the Federal Reserve has an explicit goal to relentlessly degrade the purchasing power of their savings.

    The Fed weakens the dollar—and pushes prices higher—by creating new money and pushing it out into the economy. If the Fed hits its stated target, the U.S. dollar will lose 10% of its buying power over the next 5 years, 26% over the next 15, and 40% over the next 25. As bad as that sounds, history suggests the dollar will fare even worse than the Fed intends it to.

    The Fed’s Evolving Mandate: So Long, “Stable Prices”

    For much of its 108-year history, the Federal Reserve had either an implied or explicit mandate to preserve the value of the U.S. dollar—and it failed spectacularly. Between the Fed’s founding in 1913 and 2012, the dollar lost approximately 96% of its buying power.

    In 2012, the Fed formally dropped the value-preservation pretense, brazenly declaring that, henceforth, it will deliberately cultivate price inflation at 2% a year.

    In the context of a single year, that may not sound like much. However, just as small plumbing leaks quietly cause devastating damage over time, a steady loss of a modest amount of purchasing power accumulates to a major blow to the dollar. Naturally, the Fed didn’t say it wants to cut the value of a dollar by 26% in 15 years, but that’s how the math plays out.

    When announcing its new philosophy, the Fed claimed a 2% inflation rate is “most consistent over the long run with the Fed’s statutory mandate.” Is it? The Federal Reserve Reform Act of 1977 directs the Fed to “promote the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.”

    The Fed is clearly applying a creative interpretation of the word “stable.” Would a doctor use that term to describe a patient’s pulse that keeps losing two beats per minute at hourly intervals?

    It wasn’t long until the Fed was straining at the longer monetary leash it had given itself. Next, the central bank declared that, rather than viewing 2% as an upper limit on annual price increases, it will feel free to let inflation run hotter in a given year, pursuant to hitting a 2% average over time.

    Given history’s many examples of runaway inflation, that sounds a lot like the Fed is playing with fire.

    An August 2020 elaboration on the central bank’s philosophy offered little reassurance: Fed chair Jerome Powell said, “We are not tying ourselves to a particular mathematical formula that defines the average. Thus, our approach could be viewed as a flexible form of average inflation targeting.”

    An “average” without “a particular mathematical formula” sounds all too flexible indeed.

    Has the Inflation Virus Already Escaped the Fed’s Lab?

    This spring, Fed officials have been assuring Americans that recent price increases are merely “transitory“—that they don’t mark the start of a major upward trend.

    In the wake of April inflation data, those assurances are looking increasingly empty. First came a market-jarring report that consumer prices were 4.2% higher than the previous year. Next, we learned the Producer Price Index soared 6.2% from April 2020—the largest jump since the index started in 2010.

    Remember that 2% inflation target? Consumer prices have already risen 2% in the first four months of 2021 alone, with month-to-month increases growing steadily larger. So far this year, the Consumer Price Index has risen:

    • +0.2% in January
    • +0.4% in February
    • +0.6% in March
    • +0.8% in April

    The Fed’s Unspoken Mandate

    Since consumer price increases are driven in large part by the Fed’s creation of new money, there’s ample reason to think inflationary pressures will continue to grow, thanks to the Fed’s unspoken mandate: aiding and abetting federal government deficit spending.

    For the first seven months of the 2021 fiscal year, the federal government spent 90% more money than it took in—since October, $4.075 trillion in outlays against $2.14 trillion in receipts.

    When the government spends more money than it takes in, it covers the difference by issuing debt in the form of Treasury bonds, bills and notes. To create artificial demand for that debt and force interest rates lower than what a rational market would demand from an entity that’s $28 trillion in debt, the Fed has been buying much of the new debt with money it creates out of thin air.

    This eyebrow-raising practice is called “monetizing the debt,” and in recent times, the Fed has been taking it extreme levels. For example, in March and April of 2020 alone, the Fed monetized over $1.5 trillion of federal debt—everything the Treasury borrowed during that span.

    Money in Circulation: M1 Money Supply (Source: Federal Reserve)

    The Fed is barred from buying debt directly from the government. In what is essentially a sham transaction, the Fed defeats the spirit of that law by simply waiting until the debt is issued to the public and then buying it from a select group of large financial firms who are in on the arrangement.

    It bears repeating that it does so by creating new money, with the consequence of reducing the value of the other money already in circulation. As a means of financing government, then, inflation is a tax everyone pays, but nobody votes for—unless you count the unelected appointees to the Federal Reserve.

    A Cornered Fed Won’t Stop Printing Money Now

    The U.S. government-Federal Reserve cartel has painted itself into a corner.

    Absent the Fed’s purchase of Treasury debt, the federal government’s cost of borrowing would soar, as investors demand full compensation for the growing risk of loaning money to the increasingly debt-laden U.S. government. Since Treasury rates serve as a benchmark, consumer and corporate borrowing costs would soar too, tanking the economy.

    At the same time, the prospect of higher inflation puts upward pressure on rates, prompting the Fed to create more money to buy Treasury debt and push rates lower—yet that new money is itself an additional source of inflationary pressure.

    Meanwhile, blissfully oblivious to the growing peril, Congress and President Biden are eager to keep stacking trillion-dollar spending plans that hand out money to mismanaged municipalities, give cash payments to people who lost no income during the pandemic, finance a sprawling global empire, award cronies and incentivize unemployed people to stay unemployed.

    There’s no telling how or when this will end, but it won’t end well.

    Read more and subscribe at https://starkrealities.substack.com/

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/15/2021 – 18:30

  • Meet The Bank Of America Exec Accused Of Ruling Through COVID With An "Iron Fist"
    Meet The Bank Of America Exec Accused Of Ruling Through COVID With An “Iron Fist”

    Thomas K. Montag, Bank of America’s second in command, oversees about 17,000 people and still gets thing done in an “old school” kind of way.

    Such was the topic of a new profile on Montag, that highlighted his business practices as inclusive of favoritism and “ruling with an iron fist”, according to the New York Times.

    Montage was born in Portland, Oregon and started his career in 1985 at Goldman Sachs. He was a former offensive tackle for his high school football team before going on to work in swaps at a Goldman trading desk. In 2008, he joined Merrill Lynch to run its markets division, and was soon put in charge of the merger between B of A and Merrill. Anne Finucane, Bank of America’s vice chairman said: “The early days were certainly rocky, but he made it work.”

    But divisions that Montag was in charge of “blossomed” and spoke to his ability to cultivate large clients. Some of his employees, however, found his expectations unreasonable: 

    On Friday afternoons over the years, after the markets had closed, Mr. Montag sometimes sought out floor managers at their desks, current and former employees said, leaving Post-it notes scrawled with the words, “Where are you?” if they weren’t around.

    Montag would also routinely clip or add to bonuses for reasons that weren’t clear, at the last minute, employees said. Those who got additional bonuses were known as “FOT” or friends of Tom.

    One FOT was Gene Reilly, a hedge-fund manager who worked for him as Bank of America’s global head of quantitative trading in the early 2010s. He told the NYT:  “Tom really cares about people in an old school way that’s not typical in today’s corporate world. Whether a colleague needs heart surgery or someone’s parent is dying in the hospital, Tom makes the phone call and helps anyway he can.”

    His old school style has led to sexual harassment within his divisions, however. “Montag’s divisions confidentially settled about 15 complaints annually” from employees who made “credible allegations of misconduct or a toxic work environment”. Bank of America spokeswoman Jessica Oppenheim called the number “grossly inaccurate”. 

    And the profile specifically takes exception with Montag’s handling of the pandemic – he was insistent in his employees still showing up to the office during the beginnings of Covid. These employees called themselves “warriors” who referred to those who stayed home as “tapped out”. At the time, “some of Mr. Montag’s workers grew fearful that if they didn’t go into the office, they would lose their jobs or their bonuses,” the report says. Those who didn’t show up were put on something called the “can’t be bothered” list – an idea he first developed in 2014 as “an annual roster of employees whose bonuses would be docked because they did not carry out administrative tasks such as participating in colleague performance reviews.”

    All the while, Montag monitored the efficiency and profitability of employees who stayed home, versus those who came to the office, via spreadsheet. In essence, the piece notes, he “[kept] score”.

    During the pandemic, the productivity spreadsheet, titled “Tom/Dashboard,” according to an image of it, allowed Mr. Montag to track individual profits and losses of employees working at home versus those still in the office, according to that and other images and two people with knowledge of the spreadsheets. In the office, said one of those employees, Mr. Montag would sometimes pop by individual desks and say, “I knew you’d be here.”

    Montag himself went into the office in the early days of the pandemic, telling the NYT: “I was the battlefront for us in a way.” He would cycle into the office in jeans and sneakers every day instead of showing up in his usual coat and tie, the report notes. 

    As the second best paid executive at Bank of America, it’s a stark contrast from many other corporate COOs who are happy to collect their compensation and who are busy focusing on things like not offending their employees. Or, as the New York Times put it, the 64 year old’s “hard-driving approach has been increasingly out of step with the contemporary world of finance”.

    While some describe him as shrewd and charismatic, other employees say his management style is “demanding and erratic”. 

    Robert Grillo, who was a managing director in the bond division of Bank of America from 2009 to 2016, said: “Tom demanded excellence. He was very motivational in speaking. He had an incredible work ethic. But his favoring of certain groups, and people, I think, was detrimental to the total culture.”

    Compared to other banks, Montag was slower to embrace working from home during the pandemic. This resulted in attrition and slumping morale. “At least 11 senior markets employees, including several traders and some department heads, have left Mr. Montag’s divisions, along with the chair of global corporate and investment banking,” the profile notes.

    More than 100 other people took layoff packages to exit while keeping their stock. The Times talked to more than 2 dozen current and former employees and found that the mood amongst them was one of “resignation”. 

    “They’re going to kick me out of here,” Montag said in February. Last July, he wrote to some of his employees: “I came to New York to make a few dollars, go back to Oregon, and buy a house. Everything else has been gravy.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/15/2021 – 18:00

  • COVID Deaths Plummet As Excess Mortality Falls To Pre-Pandemic Levels
    COVID Deaths Plummet As Excess Mortality Falls To Pre-Pandemic Levels

    Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

    In any given year during the past decade in the United States, more than 2.5 million Americans have died – from all causes.

    The number has grown in recent years, climbing from 2.59 million in 2013 to 2.85 million in 2019. This has been due partially to the US’s aging population, and also due to rising obesity levels and drug overdoses. In fact, since 2010, growth rates in total deaths has exceeded population growth in every year.

    In 2020, preliminary numbers suggest a jump of more than 17 percent in all-cause total deaths, rising from 2.85 million in 2019 to 3.35 million in 2020.

    The increase was not all due to covid. At least one-quarter to one-third appear to be from other causes. In some cases, more than half of “excess deaths” were attributed to “underlying causes” other than covid. But whether due to untreated medical conditions (thanks to covid lockdowns), or drug overdoses, or homicides, total death increased in 2020. In other words, total excess mortality is a partial proxy for covid deaths. Whatever proportion of total deaths covid cases may comprise, it stands to reason that if total deaths decline, then covid deaths are declining also. Moreover, looking at total deaths helps cut through any controversies over whether or not deaths are properly attributed to covid. 

    What has been the trend with these “excess deaths” in recent months?

    Well, according to data through mid-March reported by Our World in Data and by the Human Mortality Database, excess mortality began to plummet in early January and is now back to levels below the 2015-2019 average:

    Excess mortality peaked the week of January 3 and then it began to collapse, dropping back to summer 2020 levels by mid February. By March 14, excess mortality was at 1 percent above the 2015-2019 average. All this occurred even as very few Americans were vaccinated. When excess deaths began to drop, less than one percent of Americans had been fully vaccinated. At the end of January, less than two percent of Americans had been fully vaccinated. By the end of March, when excess mortality returned to 2019 levels, 15 percent of the population had been fully vaccinated. 

    As of May 11, only one-third of Americans had been fully vaccinated, although “experts” insist 60 to 70 percent of the population must be vaccinated before we can expect to see a drop-off in deaths like that which occurred earlier this year.

    Yet, as of the week of March 22—excess mortality was below both the 2015-2019 average and below the total for the last year before the official beginning of the covid pandemic (2019).

    It’s likely these facts won’t stop “public health” bureaucrats from continuing to insist that another “wave” of covid deaths and cases is right around the corner. These activists have many strategies for pushing vaccine passports, mask mandates, and even continual precautionary business closures. They’ll tell us that new covid variants are sweeping the globe. This is what they were saying in January, for instance, when Vox was telling us it was too dangerous to even visit the grocery store. At least one expert in late January warned us that the coming weeks would be “the darkest weeks of the pandemic.”

    It’s now clear such predictions were spectacularly wrong. By late January, totals deaths were already in precipitous decline. 

    But what about the lag in data? We’re only looking at data up to mid-March because it tends to take several weeks for estimates of total deaths to become reasonably reliable. Yes, that data shows a big drop off. But what about the numbers for April and May? Should we expect those death totals to surge again with a promised “fourth wave” of new covid death?

    If we consider the more recent case and death totals attributed to covid, we see few signs of a new surge.

    Although Anthony Fauci and other government employed technocrats have been unable to provide any explanation at all for it, the fact remains that months after Texas and Florida and Georgia have either abolished or greatly scaled back all social-distancing and mask mandates, cases and deaths are generally declining, and total deaths per million (attributed to covid) remain below what we’ve seen in states with severe lockdowns. 

    The trend in the United States overall is similar.  Indeed, it appears that nearly all states have seen sizable drops in both cases and deaths, regardless of the mask or social-distancing policies in place. 

    Notably, it’s only in recent weeks that “CDC guidelines” are beginning to admit the reality. It wasn’t until April 26 that the CDC declared that fully vaccinated Americans are allowed to venture outside without masks on. The CDC states these “recommendations” unironically as if it weren’t the case that most Americans—outside of true-believer hotspots like San Francisco and Chicago—stopped wearing masks outside a long time ago. The hermetically sealed world of government employees and corporate journalists appears unaware that at least half the country pretty much went back to normal last fall. 

    So now what?

    The technocrats know that they need to keep pressing hard for more de facto vaccine mandates—pushed mostly by corporate America for low-risk younger populations.  Most Americans can already see that covid numbers are already in decline in spite of months of Americans flouting mask mandates and social distancing guidelines. People can see that children—an increasing number of whom are returning to schools—aren’t a significant factor in the spread of disease. So it will be important for the regime to push vaccines for children more aggressively before people stop listening to the “experts” completely. 

    Don’t expect the regime to admit it has been wrong about anything. If anything, it will double down on the usual narrative. It’s worked pretty well so far. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/15/2021 – 17:30

  • 3 Reasons Why Goldman Now Sees Almost No Upside For Stocks In 2021
    3 Reasons Why Goldman Now Sees Almost No Upside For Stocks In 2021

    Just over a month ago, in our preview of earnings season, we said that “Q1 earnings will be stellar, but are fully priced in and only guidance will matter“, and sure enough the broader market is now below where it was a month ago despite the strongest earnings season in modern history: with 90% of S&P500 companies having reported, the results show EPS rose by 46% year/year… 

    … the fastest pace since 1Q 2010, while a whopping 68% of S&P 500 firms have beat consensus by more than one standard deviation, a record high. Even crazier, equity analysts expected EPS growth of 20% at the start of the season, but realized growth was more than double that 46% with Consumer Discretionary (+187%) and Financials (+135%) posting the strongest results. Behind these shockingly good results? Better-than-expected net profit margins… although with inflation soaring, fears are spreading that profit margins are about to get clobbered.

    It’s this growing realization that “goldilocks” is behind us and profit-crushing inflation – or worse, stagflation – lies ahead that explains why the market was not impressed and punished both companies that missed as well as those that beat expectations:

    It’s also why as Goldman notes, even though 1Q EPS came in 20% above expectations, analyst estimates for 2Q-4Q 2021 and 2022 have been revised up by less than 5%.

    Here Goldman disagrees with the near-term consensus and as chief strategist David Kostin writes on Friday, “we raise our 2021 EPS forecast to $193 (from $181), driven by a roughly equal contribution from 1Q beats and our expectation of stronger EPS in the remainder of 2021. We also raise our 2022 EPS estimate to $202 (from $197). The combination of global reopening, elevated consumer savings, and strong corporate operating leverage will drive sharp recoveries in both economic and earnings growth. GDP growth is generally the primary driver of earnings growth. Our economists expect real US GDP growth will average +7% in  2021 and +5% in  2022. Following EPS growth of 35% in 2021 and 5% in 2022, we forecast growth of 5% in 2023 and 5% in 2024 as GDP growth decelerates to trend (see Exhibits 3 and 4)”

    The key reason, however, why Goldman is feeling especially optimistic on the near-term is another blockbuster quarter for tech names as well as bank which stand to benefit from sharply higher rates (unless of course we get a huge flattener next):

    At the sector level, our $12 upward revision to 2021 EPS is driven primarily by Financials (+$7) and Info Tech (+$3). The two sectors accounted for half of the beat vs. consensus 1Q estimates. Financials benefited in large part from the release of $10 billion in reserves. While future reserve releases are difficult to forecast, our Banksanalysts estimate only 36% of the reserves built since the peak of the COVID crisis have been released. Info Tech earnings, particularly among the largest stocks, continued to  impress; the sector posted sales growth of 19% and record high margins of 24.2% in 1Q 2021. Tech’s growing share of S&P 500 revenues have helped lift S&P 500 profit margins back to the 3Q 2018 record high of 11.6%

    A strong 2021 notwithstanding, Goldman is far less optimistic about 2022 where its EPS estimate of 202 for the S&P is $7 below consensus largely due to expectations of higher corporate tax rates next year:

    We assume a smaller version of President Biden’s tax proposal will be passed later this year. Our EPS estimate assumes a hike in the federal statutory corporate tax rate from 21% to 25% as well as a higher tax rate on foreign income. The 5% earnings impact of tax reform that we model reduces our 2022 EPS estimate from $212 (10% growth) to $202 (5% growth) – see Exhibit 5 above. Both our investor conversations and the performance of our tax baskets suggest portfolio managers have not incorporated higher taxes into their forecasts, meaning negative revisions to 2022 EPS are likely later in the year.

    This, together with other factors is why Goldman is turning increasingly cautious on the market and unlike many of its Wall Street peers, has refused to chase price action higher by lifting its S&P price target. Instead, as Kostin admits, Goldman’s year-end price target remain 4300 for 2021 (+3% from today) and just 7% higher – or 4,600 – for 2022, reflecting Goldman’s expectation that US equities will continue to appreciate, “albeit at a slower pace than has characterized the past 12 months.” As Kostin also notes, this dynamic is consistent with the typical pattern as economic growth peaks and starts to decelerate – i.e., the best is now behind us – which the bank’s economists believe is currently the case in the US and will be true on a global basis later this year. This phase of the cycle is also consistent with the view that earnings growth will drive returns while valuations cease to expand.

    Combining these observations, Kostin concludes that what little upside is left for the S&P, it will come entirely from earnings growth as valuation will only shrink going forward, or as Kostin puts it: three factors will prevent further valuation expansion during the remainder of 2021:

    1. Decelerating US growth,
    2. a real rate-driven rise in interest rates
    3. the likely passage of tax reform.

    While we previously expanded on point 1 here last week, regarding point two Goldman writes that its rates strategists expect the 10-year Treasury yield to rise to 1.9% in 2021 and 2.1% in 2022. And with breakeven inflation now a blistering 2.5%, the highest since 2006…

    … they expect higher yields will be primarily driven by real rates, a mix that has historically been less favorable for equities. In addition, echoing what he wrote above, Kostin says that the passage of Biden tax reform – even if watered down substantially – later this year should weigh on equity multiples. Along with higher corporate rates, Goldman’s political economists expect the capital gains tax rate for those making more than $1 million in annual income will rise to roughly 28% (below the 43% proposed). And although past capital gains hikes have been associated with lower equity prices and allocations ahead of the hike, these effects were ultimately short-lived.

    Finally, since Goldman still expects the S&P to rise modestly (instead of dropping), and since all of this upside will come from profit increases, the bank expects the S&P 500 P/E multiple to remain flat at roughly 21-22x through 2022.

    And addressing his preferred valuation measure (since it is the only one that says markets are not a crazy bubble right now), Kostin says he models the S&P 500 equity risk premium as a function of growth expectations, policy uncertainty, the size of the Fed balance sheet, and consumer confidence. Here, Kostin’s model suggests that the ERP will continue to decline and more than offset higher interest rates in 2021 as the global economy reopens.

    So despite predicting no valuation (multiple) expansion in 2021, Goldman’s forecasts imply a nosebleed inducing NTM P/E of 21.3x at year-end 2021, which would rank in the 93rd percentile since 1976 (i.e., crazy asset bubble), but a yield gap vs. Treasuries of 280 bp that would rank in just the 42nd percentile. Should yields jump materially higher than Goldman’s 2.1% 2022 year-end target (and according to many they will), then naturally all bets are off.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/15/2021 – 17:00

  • "This Is All About Stagflation… The U.S. Is Walking Into The Early Stages Of The Fourth Turning"
    “This Is All About Stagflation… The U.S. Is Walking Into The Early Stages Of The Fourth Turning”

    By Larry McDonald of The Bear Traps Report

    We believe the U.S. is walking into the early stages of the Fourth Turning, a subject entertained below. In this note we break down the ideal 2020-2030 portfolio and why it is so different from the 2010-2020 vintage. Above all, by now it should be clear to a five year old; Global Central Banks are working together in a dollar containment regime. With conviction, we laid out this thesis a year ago (April 2020) in our “Lessons from Omaha” and it became the foundation under our overweight positioning in commodities, global large cap value, and emerging markets.

    The good news is, the commodity cycle is still in the early innings.

    There are trillions of U.S. dollars married to deflation bets (fixed income bonds and tech stocks) and the lawyers are writing up the divorce papers as we speak. Unintended consequences are popping up weekly, the latest variety points to a significant labor shortage developing in the U.S. with colossal side effects moving our way.

    It’s going to be hilarious. Just when the last economist threw in the Phillips Curve towel, wrote the long winded obituary it will come roaring back to life. Wage inflation is about to explode, and this sword is swinging in the direction of profit margins.

    Above all, the Fed is staring down the barrel of  runaway inequality, inequality that the Fed itself has created. The American Dream just isn’t the 1950s-2000s bright blue, a touch of grey has moved in forging left wing populism. If you listen carefully to U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chair Jay Powell, they are focused on U 6 unemployment near 11% and the 9 million Americans who have left the Non Farm Payrolls since January 2020.

    Now listen to the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, planet earth has new alpha male central banks positioning themselves FAR more hawkish than the FOMC – dollar bearish. Strategically so, it’s all part of the plan. These brain trusts have FINALLY figured out a runaway dollar will obliterate emerging market balance sheets loaded with fresh and deep, Covid 19 wounds.

    The $64T of global GDP outside the U.S. is stabilizing relative to the $20T inside the 50 U.S. states. This is a colossal dollar bearish driver just what Powell placed on the menu. Today, inflation expectations are finally moving faster than bond yields, placing a strong bid under the emerging market equities, and delivering a gold silver tailwind that is picking up speed. The dollar is the near term problem solver, but once they lose control of the beast they will move face to face with the inflation shock around the corner.

    An interesting market development this week was Treasuries rallying despite commodities continuing to surge. Bonds likely rallied with growth stocks in major pain again (investors looking for safety) however; wheat, platinum, corn, soybeans, crude oil, etc. were ALL green, so this was not a ‘deflationary scare’.

    “This is all about stagflation. I think the yield curve is going to flatten, front end less anchored. The Fed is handcuffed. Not good. Inflation is going to choke growth in 3q/4q into 2022… This is a big problem for high yield and small caps in the longer term.“ – Senior Credit Portfolio Manager

    But first inflation gets really hot.

    “Larry I spoke to a number of our Food Brokers today (they represent man y manufacturers). Of the 30 Consumer Products Manufacturers, they represent 12 who have already taken a price increase this year. Three took Price Increases YESTERDAY. Increases range from 7% to 10%. (Everything from Frozen Potatoes to Baby Food going up). The companies that are not raising prices are reducing product sizes ( Hidden Cost Increase ) or reducing promotions. Net, Net a Hidden Price Increase. The majority of manufacturers give a 60 90 Day notice on price increases. The increase to consumers in stores will hit in Q3/Q4 2021, and Q1 2022″

    Even billionaire Sam Zell is now pitching gold as an antidote to 1970s style inflation: “Obviously one of the natural reactions is to buy gold, it feels very funny because I’ve spent my career talking about why would you want to own gold? It has no income; it costs to store. And yet, when you see the debasement of the currency, you say, what am I going to hold on to? Oh boy, we’re seeing it all over the place,” Zell said of inflation.

    “You read about lumber prices, but we’re seeing it in all of our businesses. The obvious bottlenecks in the supply chain arena are pushing up prices. It’s very reminiscent of the ‘70s.”

    Bloomberg’s Commodity Spot Index hit its highest level in 9 years this week. This is directly correlated to the continued rotation from growth to value equities. Higher inflation and higher yields means a higher discount rate for the net present value of future cash flows. Growth equity valuations discounted DECADES of future cash flows in 2020 when credit risk was ‘taken off the table’. These cash flows are now being eroded by inflation expectations. Meanwhile, the cash flows coming fro m commodity producers will likely surge higher with inflation.

    The Long View – The reversal in the Russell 1000 value to growth ratio looks eerily like the early 2000s reversal. This points to a looooong way to go in the value vs. growth trade (value outperformance to continue )… A decade of austerity, tea parties, taper tantrums, brexits trade wars, covid has pushed trillions into overcrowded deflation assets. Exit visas are in many hands today.

    Stay overweight global value, EM, and commodities. The tremors have joined us nearly every month this year, but the quake will soon have assets pouring out of tech in search of inflation protection.

    Millennials and the Fourth Turning

    The commodity bull case and the Fourth Turning go hand in hand. Also known as the Strauss Howe generational theory, our awareness is crucial here. Discovered by William Straus and Neil Howe, historical events are related to repeated, cyclical generation types. Each  generation starts a fresh era (a turning) lasting about 20-25 years, after having grown up in the prior era. Every four generations equals a “saeculum” or a long human life of 80-100 years. The Fourth and last phase of a saeculum is a crisis. There follows a First Turning, a recovery. During the recovery generation, community values dominate. The next generations after that attack the communal institutions in the name of autonomy , freedom, and individualism. This eventually leads to another crisis .

    On the balance sheet the good news is over the next 15 years $65T to $70T will pass from Baby Boomers and Gen Xers to Millennials. The bad news is the $30T of U.S. national debt and $160T of unfunded liabilities that will be hoisted upon these blossoming youngsters. After a colossal feast at the dinner table, Millennials are NOT happy with being left the check! Can you blame them?

    The Fourth Turning gets rid of the old order and replaces it with a new one. The First Turning is “the High,” followed by “the Awakening,” followed by “the Unraveling,” followed by “the Crisis,” which is the Fourth Turning. After that, there is another First Turning, another “High.” The last 1st Turning, the last “High,” was the generation of the post World War II era, starting in 1946. It ended with JFK’s assassination. During “the Awakening,” the Second Turning, formerly beloved institutions are criticized and the focus shifts to spiritual independence. Social progress leads to exhaustion with the discipline that created it. Self awareness becomes more important. The most recent Second Turning lasted from the campus and racial unrest of the 1960’s to the rejection of high taxes in the 1980s. The Third Turning, “the Unraveling,” is quite different than the First. At this point social institutions are weak, and people have lost faith in them. Individualism is now at its height. People of this generation just want to enjoy themselves. Society is not cohesive. The last Third Turning began in the 1980s through the 1990s economic boom and our culture wars.

    Then comes the Fourth Turning. The crisis can be extreme and take the form of a war or revolution or civil war. The nation’s survival is at stake. In response, old institutions are replaced with new ones. The slate is wiped clean in a period of creative destruction. A new consensus is formed from selective synthesis of certain ideas generated by both sides of the opposing camps from the prior period.

    The last Fourth Turning began with the crash of 1929 and ended with the conclusion of WWII. As traumatic as this period was, it was also foundational for the world we live in today, but that world is going away as new foundations are being prepared. The G.I. generation was the generation of heroes. Born between 1901 and 1924, they had guts, self confidence, and a collective view. In many ways, so does the Millennial Generation, with its confidence in collective action and sensitivity to others (politeness). During the generation of crisis, the nation itself appears to society to be at risk. As a result, profound secular change occurs. The external orders reconfigure, and private behavior goes through profound change. These Fourth Turning crises are not purely bad, provided one survives them.

    We are in the Fourth Turning now. It began with the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the crash it engendered. The rise of left wing populism (think AOC) is classic Fourth Turning.

    This helps contextualize who the Millennials (also known as Gen Y) really are. And they clearly aren’t Boomers. They hold very different ideals on the government’s role in society, on community, on the goals of the nation, on markets. Millennials were raised by helicopter moms who convinced each one that they are special, but also on the ideal of cooperation. They were protected, coddled, and schooled in the value of teamwork. They are highly attached to their families. They build through consensus and are personally most confident once team consensus has been established. And they care about the world at large. This is just the type of generation that will create the new world order out of the crisis and conflict of the Fourth Turning.

    When polled about what is more important, individualism or community, Boomers split close to 50% 50%, but Millennials favor community overwhelmingly, 71% 29%. The favoriting of the community over individualism is irrespective of political party affiliation.  These forces are large scale MMT (modern monetary theory) debt forgiveness drivers and are NOT deflationary. Bullish commodities, ten year view.

    Generation X, the generation after the Baby Boomers, born 1961-1981, was raised in the opposite way of the Millennials: they were left alone by parents focused on their own self awareness and voyages of self discovery. They were taught to survive on their own, to exercise personal agency. Generation X are often the parents of Millennials. Generation X is also referred to as the “latchkey generation” since they enjoyed (or suffered) much less parental oversight vs prior generations as a result of much higher divorce rates and more mothers in the workforce. This is the disaffected and cynical generation of punk and heavy metal. However, in mid life they often achieve a work life balance precisely because of their rejection of their Baby Boomer parents’ self absorption. Thus, they spent and spend much more time actively and directly engaged in raising the next Greatest Generation: the Millennials. So, it is the Millennials’ collectivism that will create a new cultural norm out of the crisis of the Fourth Turning.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/15/2021 – 16:35

  • Biden Phones Netanyahu After Israel Flattens AP Offices In Gaza – Doesn't Condemn Attack
    Biden Phones Netanyahu After Israel Flattens AP Offices In Gaza – Doesn’t Condemn Attack

    update(4:10pm): According to the White House readout of Biden’s Saturday call to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the US president “reaffirmed his strong support for Israel’s right to defend itself against rocket attacks from Hamas and other terrorist groups in Gaza,” while condemning the “indiscriminate attacks” coming from the Gaza Strip.

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    He merely “raised concerns” about the “safety and security of journalists” – and glaringly absent was any specific mention in the call readout of the intentional targeting of the media building which was hit by a reported six airstrikes earlier in the day, causing it to be flattened.

    According to Axios in the call with Netanyahu Biden stopped short of an outright condemnation of the attack, but merely “raised concerns about civilian casualties in Gaza and the bombing of the building that housed AP and other media offices, according to Israeli officials.”

    The opening section from the White House statement on the call is as follows:

    The President spoke today with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. The President reaffirmed his strong support for Israel’s right to defend itself against rocket attacks from Hamas and other terrorist groups in Gaza. He condemned these indiscriminate attacks against towns and cities across Israel. The President updated the Prime Minister on high-level U.S. engagement with regional partners on this issue and discussed ongoing diplomatic efforts. The President noted that this current period of conflict has tragically claimed the lives of Israeli and Palestinian civilians, including children. He raised concerns about the safety and security of journalists and reinforced the need to ensure their protection.

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    Biden also phoned Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, Palestinian officials confirmed, which marks a first during his administration. Axios details the call as follows:

    • “President Biden updated President Abbas on U.S. diplomatic engagement on the ongoing conflict and stressed the need for Hamas to cease firing rockets into Israel,” a White House readout of the called said.
    • The Palestinian Authority on Friday criticized the U.S. position on the Gaza crisis and called the Biden administration to intervene.

    And further, Abbas’s spokesperson, Nabil Abu Rudeineh, was quoted in a statement: “The silence by the Biden administration about what Israel is doing and the claim it is self defense led to massacres in Gaza and the West Bank. We ask the U.S. to take action because it is the only party in the world who can stop Israeli aggression.”

    Meanwhile, more and more protests are popping up across Europe – and some in the United States – expressing solidarity with Palestinians. “Protesters gathered in London, Berlin, Madrid and Paris as the worst violence in years raged between Israel and militants in Gaza,” AFP and others observed.

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    The death toll continues to climb into the night Saturday, with regional media counting at least 145 deaths in Gaza from the airstrikes. 

    In Israel, at least eleven have been killed by the continuing onslaught of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad rocket fire. Amid increased international condemnation for the appalling civilian death toll and especially high number of children killed and wounded, Netanyahu’s office released a statement placing blame squarely on Hamas for the casualties…

    After the reported death of a family of 10 in an Israeli strike in Gaza this morning, eight of them children, the prime minister’s Arab-language spokesman blames Hamas, Channel 12 reports.

    “Hamas bears full blame for the deaths of civilians in Gaza,” he says in a statement. “It sought this escalation and started it when it attacked Jerusalem. It intentionally buried its rocket launchers and weapons caches and posts in the center of residential areas and this is a war crime. It attacks our citizens to kill as many of them as possible and that is another war crime.”

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    In the US, many are taking increasing notice of the apparent complete lack of any US plan or diplomatic intervention toward a ceasefire.

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    For now it seems the Biden White House is merely content to express “concerns” as the region burns.

    * * *

    update(12:49pm): So far the Biden administration has stopped short of condemning the Israeli airstrikes on the Gaza offices of US-based Associated Press and other international media outlets, which flattened the 12-story Al-Jalaa tower, resulting in widespread outrage from journalists and media rights organizations across the globe. 

    Hours after the attack Joe Biden as reportedly phoned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to express Washington’s “concerns” and to convey the “paramount responsibility” to protect journalists.

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    This also as the death toll continues to soar amid unrelenting airstrikes – also as Hamas rockets continue to fly toward Israel – at over 140 Gazans killed since Monday.

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    * * *

    update(12:30pm): The White House has said it communicated its “concerns” to Israel over the safety of journalists after IDF airstrikes obliterated the 12-story office building that housed international media headquarters in Gaza, most notably the AP and Al Jazeera…

    “We have communicated directly to the Israelis that ensuring the safety and security of journalists and independent media is a paramount responsibility,” White House press secretary Psaki wrote.

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    AP CEO Gary Pruitt previously said in a statement: “We are shocked and horrified that the Israeli military would target and destroy the building housing AP’s bureau and other news organizations in Gaza. They have long known the location of our bureau and knew journalists were there. We received a warning that the building would be hit.”

    * * *

    Israel has targeted yet another large office and residential tower in the Gaza Strip, but this time its warplanes have destroyed the 12-story building housing the media offices of the U.S.-based Associated Press and Qatar-based broadcaster Al Jazeera, the AP itself as well as Reuters eyewitnesses confirm.

    The outlets have said that Israel issued advanced warning of the airstrikes of up to one hour before the attack on Al-Jalaa tower. Representatives with the AP and the building owner had reportedly pleaded with IDF officials to give more time to enable a safe evacuation and also to take out crucial media equipment. 

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    However, eyewitnesses say they were not given extra time, but merely made it out with whatever they had in hand and with their own lives.

    The building can be seen essentially collapsing in its own footprint, the same way that three prior residential apartment buildings did during days past. “The building was hit approximately six times before collapsing in plumes of black smoke, which engulfed the entire neighborhood,” international press reports noted.

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    “The strike on the high-rise came nearly an hour after the military ordered people to evacuate the 12-story building, which also housed Al-Jazeera, other offices and residential apartments. The strike brought down the entire structure, which collapsed in a gigantic cloud of dust,” AP writes. 

    “There was no immediate explanation for why it was attacked,” AP adds.

    The IDF in a later follow-up statement alleged the media offices contained Hamas military intelligence units…

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    The devastating attack brought swift condemnation by various international media organizations and advocates, with a number of prominent journalists expressing their shock, saying they “can’t believe” the media building was so blatantly targeted by Israel’s military.

    AP president Gary Pruitt issued a statement saying “we are shocked and horrified” at the “incredibly disturbing” attack wherein “we narrowly avoided a terrible loss of life.” 

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    “Journalists who worked there had been reporting on the Israeli attacks on Gaza,” Al Jazeera said in a social media statement. “Targeting journalists is a war crime.”

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    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/15/2021 – 16:15

  • "I Upended My Life For Apple": Newly-Hired Engineer Livid After Woke Witch-Hunt Gets Him Fired
    “I Upended My Life For Apple”: Newly-Hired Engineer Livid After Woke Witch-Hunt Gets Him Fired

    A former Facebook project manager, author, and journalist who uprooted his life in Washington to take a job with Apple is livid, after a woke mob of employees circulated a petition demanding his ouster over controversial statements from a book he wrote five years ago.

    The petition took aim at Cuban-American Antonio García Martínez over his book, Chaos Monkeys  (dedicated to “all my enemies”) – an autobiography which traces his journey from Wall Street to Silicon Valley. Martínez has described the book as “total Hunter S. Thompson/Gonzo mode.”

    According to woke Apple employees, it’s both racist and sexist. And of course, when it comes to Silicon Valley, divergent opinions need not apply. Except, he did apply, and was hired – despite Apple being “well aware” of his writing, according to a pissed-off Martinez.

    In Chaos Monkeys, Martínez describes a broad-shouldered British woman he met in his travels who “made Bob Vila of This Old House look like a fucking pussy.” Bay Area women in tech, by comparison, are “soft and weak, cosseted and naive despite their claims of worldliness, and generally full of shit. They have their self-regarding entitlement feminism, and ceaselessly vaunt their independence, but the reality is, come the epidemic plague or foreign invasion, they’d become precisely the sort of useless baggage you’d trade for a box of shotgun shells or a jerry can of diesel.” Unlike, we assume, broad-shouldered, self-sufficient women.

    Obviously, the jerry can brigade didn’t take too kindly to that, and organized a woke cancel mob.

    According to a Friday Twitter thread by Martínez, Apple knew about his writing going in, and is now defaming him.

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    He also notes that his book was extremely well received before the witch-hunt.

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    Antonio has received overwhelming support from friends and ideological allies alike. 

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    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/15/2021 – 16:10

  • Karl Marx's Road To Hell Is Paved With Fake Money
    Karl Marx’s Road To Hell Is Paved With Fake Money

    Authored by MN Gordon via EconomicPrism.com,

    “The way to Hell is paved with good intentions,” remarked Karl Marx in Das Kapital.

    The devious fellow was bemoaning evil capitalists for having the gall to use their own money for the express purpose of making more money.

    Marx, a rambling busybody, was habitually wrong.  The road to hell is paved with something much more than good intentions.  Grift, graft, larceny, corruption and fake money are what primarily composes the pavement.  Good intentions are merely dusted in to better the aesthetic.

    If you want to understand what’s going on with exploding price inflation then you must understand this…

    Right now in the United States we have a scam currency that’s controlled by central planners.  Specifically, we have what Marx envisioned in Plank No. 5 of his Communist Manifesto:

    “No. 5.  Centralization of credit in the hands of the state, by means of a national bank with state capital and an exclusive monopoly.”

    The Federal Reserve System, created by the Federal Reserve Act of Congress in 1913, is indeed a ‘national bank’ and it politically manipulates interest rates and holds a monopoly on legal counterfeiting in the United States.

    Without the Fed’s policies of mass credit creation the U.S. government could have never run up a national debt over $28 trillion.  Without the Fed’s policies of extreme credit market intervention the U.S. trade deficit for March of $74.4 billion – a new record – would have never been possible.  Without the Fed’s printing press money the U.S. government could have never run annual budget deficits over $3 trillion.

    The fact is centralized credit in the hands of a central bank always leads to money supply inflation.  Asset price inflation and consumer price inflation then follow in strange and unpredictable ways.

    These price distortions are not defects of capitalism.  They’re symptoms of a scam currency managed by central planners.

    Here’s why…

    The Nobel Planner

    The economy is a complex living organism.  It continuously evolves and is always subject to change.  One relationship at one moment can be completely different at another moment.  Supply and demand are incessantly adjusting and readjusting to meet the conditions of the market.

    These continuous interactions provide a natural and efficient response to supply shortages and gluts.  Even in a moderately free market economy, bakeries do not run out of bread when there’s a wheat crop shortage.  The shelves never go empty.  Rather, the price of bread rises and consumers adjust their spending accordingly.

    Centrally planned economies, on the other hand, are inclined to frequent, intensive and chronic shortages.  Bureaucrats, armed with spiral bound planning reports and pie graphs, are incapable of fixing the proper prices for gumballs and gasoline by diktat.  There’s simply too much going on and too many moving parts for them to consider.

    With the best of intentions, the noble planner makes their best guess of the appropriate price control.  So, too, graft and corruption takes over to ensure the fake money flows to preferred industries and providers.  Then things invariably go haywire.

    The supply of certain goods or commodities may be more than adequate.  But when a price administrator enforces an artificially low price, consumers are prone to wasteful behavior.  They’re compelled to demand a greater amount than is supplied.  Hence, the store shelves remain perpetually empty.

    Certainly, uniform standards work well for units and measurements.  They’re critical to building consistency and standardization of hardware and parts.  They’re even necessary to effective communication and computer programming.  For certain things, however, uniform standards come up short…

    When it comes to the pricing of goods, commodities and services, commanding fixed prices by a central authority is an utter failure.  This was effectively proven by the experiences of the centrally planned economies of the old communist Eastern Bloc countries during the second half of the 20th century.

    Without market determined prices for goods and services via free exchange it is impossible to establish prices that reflect actual conditions.  Without prices that are grounded in reality the production and consumption relationship becomes distorted.  In the absence of the natural corrective mechanism of market determined prices, oversupply or scarcity conditions extend out to absurdity.

    Karl Marx’s Road to Hell is Paved with Fake Money

    The planners are never able to get things quite right.  In time, these absurdities become ubiquitous.  For example, in a socialist economy you’ll find supermarkets with long lines of people and empty shelves.  Another definitive gift of socialist economies is toilets without toilet seats.  How is this even possible?

    Regrettably, price controls don’t stop with just goods, commodities, and services.  The United States – like Europe and Japan – has been doing its darnedest during the early years of the 21st century to illustrate how the experiences of the old Eastern Bloc also apply to credit.

    Remember, credit, like a commodity or good, has a price attached to it.  The price of credit is the rate of interest a lender charges to a borrower.  Like fixing the price of a commodity or good by a central planning authority, fixing the price of credit by a central bank – such as the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, or Bank of Japan – is also an utter failure.

    Someone with even a dim perception of the world around them can peer out and discern many strange and grotesque occurrences: Housing prices that far outpace incomes.  Total household debt at $14.56 trillion.  Crypto millionaires.  And an entire generation of Millennials that went $1.57 trillion in student loan debt for college degrees that have been debased in stature to what a high school diploma represented for prior generations.

    These represent gross misallocations of capital.  What’s more, they would’ve never come into existence or ballooned out to this magnitude without the Fed’s credit market price controls and counterfeiting operations.

    Indeed, the results of government intervention are always the same.  Stagnation, inflation, declining living standards, and widespread social disorder.  No doubt, they’ll be repeated to insanity.

    True capitalism requires an honest currency and market determined pricing.  Remember this in the weeks to come.  As prices rise, politicians and central planners – people like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Janet Yellen – will look to pin inflation on evil capitalists and price gouging business owners.

    Don’t believe their lies.  Just follow the fake money back to its origin…

    There you’ll find the Fed, hard at work, applying the pavement to Karl Marx’s road to hell.

    Buckle up!

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/15/2021 – 15:45

  • Concept App Pays Users In Crypto To Name-Drop Brands 
    Concept App Pays Users In Crypto To Name-Drop Brands 

    Readers have all experienced the moment when an advertisement has creepily shown up on their social media feed after talking about it. And while companies swear they’re not using smartphone apps to tap into your conversations for advertising purposes, there’s a concept app that throws fuel on this fire. 

    The concept app brought to you by Matt Reed, a creative technologist at Red Pepper who made a tool that allowed Zoom users to create a digital twin of themselves, so they didn’t have to sit in calls – said his latest creation is still in the “development phase” but would one day allow people to name-drop brands in everyday conversations and get “immediately compensated in return.” 

    “Once permissions are granted, SayPal eavesdrops on your background microphone feed and applies advanced Natural Language Processing AI for keyword identification. If a sponsored brand is detected, you get paid. The more you name-drop, the more you earn. It’s that simple,” Reed said. 

    He said SayPal would send crypto to a person’s wallet for saying brand names in conversations. 

    We’re not entirely sure if the app is a joke or if Reed is for real. Because someone could repeat the word “Quesalupa” or “Big Mac” for hours and potentially get paid. There needs to be filters or perhaps geolocation for this app to viable and for brands to go along with the idea. 

    If you want a taste of a dystopic world where people get paid to name-drop brands in conversations – look no further than the movie “Idiocracy.” 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/15/2021 – 15:20

Digest powered by RSS Digest

May 15

Today’s News 15th May 2021

  • Vaccine Virtue Signaling And The Cult Of Woke
    Vaccine Virtue Signaling And The Cult Of Woke

    Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

    All tyrannical systems need a large contingent of cheerleaders in order to survive and thrive; a group of exploitable and devout acolytes that will carry the torch and evangelize the masses with the ideology of control. Without this aggressive percentage of the population, totalitarians cannot remain in power. In the US and most of the west, leftist ideologues have filled this role nicely. They claim they are fighting for the rights of the downtrodden but their actions speak much louder than their words.

    They have supported and viciously defended nearly every draconian measure that governments and corporate elites have enacted in the past few years. They supported mass censorship of conservatives and moderates by Big Tech companies. They supported national lockdowns which destroyed hundreds of thousands of small businesses and violated the constitutional rights of millions of Americans. They continue to support unscientific mask rules which have been proven to achieve nothing tangible in terms of preventing viral spread. They support the use of “vaccine passports” which would effectively cut non-vaccinated people out of the normal economy and normal society and drive them into poverty. And, now they are all over the web trying to propagandize for the jab.

    We know these unhinged creatures by many names, including social justice warriors, snowflakes, puritans, leftists, Marxists, communists, globalists, collectivists, narcissists, etc. Basically, they are some of the worst people on the planet, and while they usually drone on about “institutional racism” that doesn’t exist, or a rape culture that doesn’t exist, or a patriarchy that doesn’t exist (though I’m starting to wonder if maybe we should start one), they have now found a new love in the covid “crisis”.

    But before I address the Woke Cult and and their perverse relationship with the establishment, I have to ask a basic question about the “vaccine” which no one in the mainstream seems to be asking:

    Why should we take an experimental mRNA vaccine for a virus that 99.7% of people outside of nursing homes will easily survive?

    This question alone usually explodes the heads of vaccine cultists. Most of them for some reason still believe the death rate of covid is “3% or more”. Why do they peddle this nonsense? Well, I would note that the mainstream media NEVER discusses the death rate of covid; they instead let people make assumptions based on things they have heard in the past from entities like the World Health Organization or the CDC.

    The 3% stat appears to have come from PREDICTIONS made by the WHO in January of 2020 before the virus had fully hit the US, as well as a preliminary study by Lancet. These predictions were pushed forward by the Imperial College of London, a globalist institution which created the complex mandate and lockdown models that nations across the world are now using to control the public. Their models were so utterly wrong that it is bewildering to anyone familiar with statistical theory or medical management.

    As it turns out, the death rate for covid is a mere 0.26% of those infected (it was never 3%) and we have known this for quite some time. Nursing home patients with preexisting conditions make up around 40% of all deaths. Over 80% of all deaths were people over the age of 65. And, according to the CDC, at least 30% of all covid hospitalizations were due to complications associated with severe obesity.

    So, if you are not over 65 and you are not a disgusting fat-body, then you have very little to worry about from covid statistically. If you are over 65 and you are fat, then you have around a 0.26% chance of dying if you become infected. If you are over 65, fat, and live in a nursing home, then maybe you should be worried.

    The bottom line is, covid is a non-threat to the vast majority of people, but there is a large group of obsessives out there that seem to want to be afraid of it anyway, or, they just want us to be afraid.

    The virtue signaling around the vaccines is growing increasingly bizarre. There are numerous YouTube videos, TikTok videos, articles, and social media posts by people smugly proclaiming their jab status as if they have just been touched by the hand of God as the chosen ones. Furthermore, the idolization of medical frauds like Dr. Anthony Fauci is cringeworthy. If you don’t believe me you can see some examples below:

    It appears that the SJWs are trying real hard to normalize covid vaccines by manufacturing a consensus. If everyone is doing it, then you might get left out and isolated from the crowd, and that’s a scary thought, right?

    Maybe I’m reading too much into this, but I’m detecting some serious desperation behind this astro-turf movement against “anti-vaxers”. No one listens to the cult of woke, no one likes them and no one trusts them to be informed or honest in their agenda. Yet, they wield considerable power in our society because they are being backed by governments and corporations. Their relationship to the establishment is symbiotic.

    This is not to say any of these people are aware of the underlying agenda. The mindset behind vaccine virtue signaling could be attributed to some base frailties the average leftist suffers from:

    First, they have a habit of relying on the government and the system in general to provide for their feelings of normalcy. That is to say, they worship the covid vaccine partly because they see it as their ticket to appeasing the government and being given access to certain comforts. Sadly, they don’t realize that those comforts can be taken back anytime they want if they were not so cowardly.

    In my county residents here have been ignoring the covid mandates for most of the past year. No one wears the masks. No one is using social distancing. And over 70% of the population is not vaccinated. The consequence? Only 17 deaths in the past year, most of which were people with preexisting conditions, and we have been free the whole damn time because we chose to be.

    Second, leftists always argue from a position of “the majority”, even when they are not the majority. Covid is a tool, like a psychological crowbar used to leverage compliance, because the presumption is that it is a threat to everyone. And, if everyone is threatened by the same bogeyman, then everyone is part of the same monolith, the same collective. And if everyone is part of the same collective, then everyone must fight that bogeyman together in unity. If you do not work with the collective, that means you are working against the collective.

    “We live in a society”, the leftists arrogantly spit and sneer, “which means you must do what WE say is best for everyone”.

    As I already thoroughly outlined above, covid is not a threat to everyone. It’s not even a threat to more than 0.26% of people. We do NOT “live in a society”, at least, we don’t live in their society or under their rules. They don’t care about saving lives, this is just the excuse they need to exert control. Control is what they most desire.

    How do I know this? Look at the mania surrounding the very existence of anti-lockdown activists and “anti-vaxers”. Look at how much they talk about us. They can’t stop themselves. Why do these people care so much whether or not we take the vaccine? If it actually works, then they are perfectly safe from us, and when we all die horrible deaths from covid they can say “we told you so”.

    What they really fear is that we are right and they are wrong. The science is certainly on our side and has been for the duration of the pandemic. The WHO was wrong, the CDC was wrong, the Imperial College of London was wrong. The anti-lockdown activists were closer to the mark than all of them combined. The masks have been proven to be useless. The lockdowns have been proven to be useless. The death rate predictions were proven to be highly exaggerated. And, now the very need for the vaccines is in question.

    In terms of the recent mainstream media narrative, we can draw a couple of conclusions: For one, the vaccine rollout is not going according to plan. Everyday the media is awash in stories about “vaccine hesitancy” and what the government needs to do about it. This tells me that far too many Americans are refusing the shot, so, the propaganda is being turned up to eleven.

    I suspect the vaccine virtue signaling is a part of that campaign, or it is at least being encouraged by the establishment. Don’t you want to be on the right side of history? Don’t you want to be on the “side that cares about people”? Or do you want to be on the “selfish side”, the side that wants to kill grandma, the side that is racist and sexist and nasty and icky?

    Another easy conclusion we can draw from the media is that this is not going away and the establishment intends to press the issue if we continue to defy them. I have seen the suggestion of “force” only gingerly broached in the past, but recently the narrative is becoming more aggressive. The word “force” is appearing more often. The media seeks to remind us that under that law, the establishment could make us take the vaccine. The message? We might as well get the vaccine now so that we can avoid any unpleasantness later.

    We all know this is eventually going to end in war, but the elites need a huge ratio of pro-mandate people to effectively subjugate liberty minded individuals. They don’t have it and it shows.

    Woke adherents see all of this same propaganda everyday; they hear the message loud and clear: The system is indicating that the vaccines will be mandatory whether by government declaration or by corporate requirement. So, leftists are scrambling to show their allegiance to their god (the state), and they act as good little foot-soldiers to gain extra virtue points.

    There are many reasons not to accept an experimental vaccine, some of them scientific and some of them based on principle. I would simply point out that many virologists have spoken out on the safety of these vaccines including a former VP of Pfizer, Dr. Michael Yeadon, who along with his peers concluded that NO ONE should take the mRNA vaccines until further testing is done, otherwise there is considerable danger of long term health effects including autoimmune disorders and infertility.

    The mRNA gene therapy push is at its core a giant experimental trial using the masses as unwitting test subjects. We really have no idea what the consequences will ultimately be, but I have a feeling that within a couple of years we will see the results and it will not be pretty. There is a reason why governments are making it legally impossible to sue vaccine producers for vaccine side effects.

    Beyond the many health concerns, there is the problem of incrementalism. One vaccination alone might not be a big threat. Maybe it’s a gamble that doesn’t end in snake eyes for most people. But what about the next one? And the next one? What about the next 20 jabs? There are now half a dozen different mutations of covid being mentioned by the government and the media as being potentially resistant to current vaccines and more dangerous than the first iteration of the virus.

    This is surely a lie, but it drives home the reality that the mandates are meant to go on forever. If we accept them now, they will never end. Just because you are vaccinated today does not mean you will be free tomorrow.

    And, with each new vaccine there arises the specter of vaccine passports. And with vaccine passports there arises the specter of complete government micro-management of people’s lives. Sure, you can choose to not get vaccinated, but the system is going to make certain you suffer for it until you can’t survive without the jab. The vaccine is a stepping stone to tyranny disguised as empathy and duty to your community.

    The woke cult adores this kind of environment, however. This is the type of dark slimy cave they like to nest in. The need to control others is an aberration, a mental deficiency common to psychopaths, but in the new world the control freaks are given justification and free rein. The striking irony here is that these people like to control, but they also like to BE controlled. They find comfort and safety in their chains. The world is a scary place, and being independent within it takes courage, mental fortitude and a willingness to learn from our mistakes so that we gain wisdom and experience in the process.

    The platitudes and pontificating of the leftist mob are an attempt to avoid the tribulations of real life; their submission to the state no matter how dubious or evil is an attempt to feel safe from their own irrational fears, their weaknesses and their inadequacies.

    As the author Robert Anton Wilson once said:

    “The obedient always think of themselves as virtuous rather than cowardly.”

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    If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch.  Learn more about it HERE.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/14/2021 – 23:40

  • Trudeau Begins Planning To Reopen US-Canada Border After More Than A Year
    Trudeau Begins Planning To Reopen US-Canada Border After More Than A Year

    For months now, as most US states have largely reopened their economies (with even hard-hit NYC preparing to be “fully reopened” by July1), Canada has lagged behind, leaving restrictions on travel and businesses in place, while the pace of the country’s vaccination campaign has lagged the US.

    But apparently all the pressure is finally getting to PM Justin Trudeau, because Bloomberg reported Friday that Trudeau’s government has begun preliminary internal discussions about reopening the border with the US, even as COVID cases have been more stubborn up north.

    Senior officials have begun to formally talk about options for how to proceed, three people familiar with the matter said, speaking on the condition that they not be identified. One question under consideration is whether to employ a two-track system in which quarantine and testing requirements would be relaxed for vaccinated travelers.

    The world’s longest international border has been shuttered since March 2020 to most non-essential travel, dramatically reducing land and air traffic between the two countries. The restrictions have hit the nation’s tourism and airline sectors particularly hard — one estimate says the measures cost those industries about C$20 billion ($16.5 billion) in revenue last year.

    “In the end, it’s a political decision, and at what point does the Canadian side — and it’s the Canadian side at this point that’s the slowpoke — decide that they’re ready to receive and what categories of people that they’ll open up to,” Michael Kergin, a former Canadian ambassador to the U.S., said in a phone interview. “A staged reopening would be the logical approach.”

    Any reopening of the border would be gradual and contingent on cases continuing to decline in both the US and Canada. The third wave of the pandemic has hit the northern nation harder because of a vaccine rollout that’s been slowed by supply issues and shipment delays.

    Many Canadian provinces remain in extended lockdowns even as the country has ramped up its vaccination campaign. Though the pace of new cases has slowed in April and May, the slowdown hasn’t been as extreme as what’s being seen in the US.

    One issue is that the two sides need to agree on a common approach. For example, they would need to agree on a system for verifying vaccine passports, something Trudeau has said Canada is open to doing to help restore cross-border travel, even as President Biden has said he doesn’t favor “vaccine passports” .

    “It would make sense for us to align with partners around the world on some sort of proof of vaccination or vaccine certification,” Trudeau said at a May 4 news conference. “We are looking very carefully at it, hoping to align with allied countries, but I can’t speak for the United States and the choices they might make around who to welcome into their country.”

    Trudeau is also working with the EU on a bilateral plan. The European bloc has already embraced vaccine passports and will soon begin allowing vaccinated tourists from the US, Canada and elsewhere to start returning to Europe for the summer holidays. As for whether Americans will be able to visit Toronto this summer, that remains unclear.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/14/2021 – 23:20

  • American Medical Association Embraces Critical Race Theory, Rejects Meritocracy
    American Medical Association Embraces Critical Race Theory, Rejects Meritocracy

    Authored by GQ Pan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours)

    Doctors and nurses confer in a hospital in Leonardtown, Md., on April 8, 2020. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)

    The American Medical Association (AMA), the largest national organization representing physicians and medical students in the United States, says it will set aside its long-held concept of meritocracy in favor of “racial justice” and “health equity.”

    In an 86-page strategic plan released May 11, the AMA set out a three-year road map detailing how the advocacy group will use its influence to dismantle “structural and institutional racism” and advance “social and racial justice” in America’s health care system.

    According to its plan, the AMA will be following a host of strategies, including implementing “racial and social justice” throughout the AMA enterprise culture, systems, policies, and practices; expanding medical education to include critical race theory; and pushing toward “racial healing, reconciliation, and transformation” regarding the organization’s own “racially discriminatory” past.

    The AMA also makes clear that it now rejects the concepts of “equality” and “meritocracy,” which have been goals in the fields of medical science and medical care.

    “Equality as a process means providing the same amounts and types of resources across populations,” the association said. “Seeking to treat everyone the ‘same,’ ignores the historical legacy of disinvestment and deprivation through historical policy and practice of marginalizing and minoritizing communities.”

    While the AMA doesn’t run America’s health care system, it holds tremendous influence over medical schools and teaching hospitals that train physicians and other health professionals. Those institutes, the AMA says, must reject meritocracy, which it describes as a harmful narrative that “ignores the inequitably distributed social, structural and political resources.”

    “The commonly held narrative of meritocracy is the idea that people are successful purely because of their individual effort,” it states. “Medical education has largely been based on such flawed meritocratic ideals, and it will take intentional focus and effort to recognize, review and revise this deeply flawed interpretation.”

    Instead, the AMA suggests, medical schools should incorporate into their programs critical race theory, an offshoot of Marxism that views society through the lens of a power struggle between the race of oppressors and that of the oppressed. As a result, according to the theory, all long-established institutions of Western society are considered to be tools of racial oppression.

    “Expand medical school and physician education to include equity, anti-racism, structural competency, public health and social sciences, critical race theory and historical basis of disease,” reads the document, which is loaded with critical race theory vocabulary.

    In a statement that accompanied the plan, AMA President Gerald Harmon said he is “fully committed to this cause” and called on the medical community to join the effort.

    “We believe that by leveraging the power of our membership, our influence, and our reach we can help bring real and lasting change to medicine,” he said.

    The controversy around critical race theory in U.S. institutions gained more attention in 2020, when President Donald Trump banned the use of training materials based on “divisive and harmful sex and race-based ideologies” in federal workplaces. President Joe Biden rescinded the order, instead issuing an order stating that his administration would pursue “a comprehensive approach to advancing equity for all.”

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/14/2021 – 23:00

  • Biden's Green "No" Deal Exposes Virtue-Signaling Americans' NIMBY Views On Wind Power
    Biden’s Green “No” Deal Exposes Virtue-Signaling Americans’ NIMBY Views On Wind Power

    The Biden administration’s infrastructure proposal layouts 100% carbon-free or clean electricity by 2035. Such an ambitious goal will require a massive new workforce, hundreds of billions of dollars in funding, and community support.

    But all is not kosher as wind turbine projects across the country have hit turbulence among local officials and residents. 

    President Biden’s proposed Energy Efficiency and Clean Electricity Standard calls for tens of thousands of wind turbines. These massive windmill-looking machines destroy any beautiful landscape and are noisy.

    WSJ explains since 2015, about 300 government entities across the US have rejected wind farm projects. In Scituate, Massachusetts, people complained to local officials that a wind turbine in the coastal town was noisy and prevented them from sleeping. Officials restricted the operation of the wind turbine to only daytime use. 

    On April 7, a proposed wind farm in Foster, Road Island, was rejected by the planning board. Residents heard horror stories from the people of Portsmouth who had turbines installed near their homes resulting in noise disturbances, vibrations, and loss in home values.

    With Gallup survey data showing 70% of Americans want “more emphasis” on clean energy such as wind, one would think wind farms would be very receptive in towns and communities. 

    What’s shocking, as WSJ outlines, “the fiercest fights against Big Wind are happening in the bluest states.” These virtue-signaling liberals who oppose wind farms can be characterized as “NIMBY,” an acronym for the phrase “not in my back yard,” or would rather see green energy developments, not in their community but elsewhere. 

    John Riggi, a town councilman in Yates, New York, has been fighting a proposed wind farm project for seven years. He said, “we are fighting to keep our lands free from environmentally destructive, culture-killing, and unwanted industrial renewable-energy projects.”

    The common theme among municipalities and residents rejecting wind farms is the same. They complain about noise pollution, falling property values, ruined views, and the potential loss of tourism dollars. To fight Big Wind, local officials are implementing noise and height limits, setting zoning setbacks, and even building heliports, preventing the construction of wind turbines within a 1-mile radius of landing pads.

    In December, Madison County, Iowa, outright banned new wind turbines. Conflicts among towns and Big Wind bring into question how the Biden administration will install tens of thousands of wind turbines and other green energy systems to fulfill their 100% carbon-free electricity by 2035. 

    What’s even more mindboggling are blue states filled with virtue-signaling liberals are opposing wind farms the most because they don’t want these monstrous turbines in their backyard that create noise pollution, destroy views, and damaged property values. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/14/2021 – 22:40

  • The Age Of Fear: A Graduation Message For Terrifying Times
    The Age Of Fear: A Graduation Message For Terrifying Times

    Authored by John W. Whitehead & Nisha Whitehead via

    “Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country.”

    – Hermann Goering, Nazi leader

    With all that is crashing down upon us, from government-manipulated crises to the blowback arising from a society that has repeatedly prized technological expedience and mass-marketed values over self-ownership and individual sovereignty, those coming of age today are facing some of the greatest threats to freedom the world has ever witnessed.

    It’s downright frightening.

    Young people will find themselves overtaxed, burdened with excessive college debt, and struggling to find worthwhile employment in a debt-ridden economy on the brink of implosion. Their privacy will be eviscerated by the surveillance state. They will be threatened, intimidated and beaten by militarized police. They will be the subjects of a military empire constantly waging war against shadowy enemies and government agents armed to the teeth ready and able to lock down the country at a moment’s notice.

    As such, they will find themselves forced to march in lockstep with a government that no longer exists to serve the people but which demands that “we the people” be obedient slaves or suffer the consequences.

    It’s a dismal prospect, isn’t it?

    Unfortunately, we failed to guard against such a future.

    Worse, we who should have known better neglected to maintain our freedoms or provide our young people with the tools necessary to resist oppression and survive, let alone succeed, in the impersonal jungle that is modern America.

    We brought them into homes fractured by divorce, distracted by mindless entertainment, and obsessed with the pursuit of materialism. We institutionalized them in daycares and afterschool programs, substituting time with teachers and childcare workers for parental involvement. We turned them into test-takers instead of thinkers and automatons instead of activists.

    We allowed them to languish in schools which not only look like prisons but function like prisons, as well—where conformity is the rule and freedom is the exception. We made them easy prey for our corporate overlords, while instilling in them the values of a celebrity-obsessed, technology-driven culture devoid of any true spirituality. And we taught them to believe that the pursuit of their own personal happiness trumped all other virtues, including any empathy whatsoever for their fellow human beings.

    We have allowed them to be manipulated by a corporate culture that simply wants money and control. However, as Aldous Huxley warned: “The victim of mind-manipulation does not know he is a victim. To him, the walls of his prison are invisible and he believes himself to be free.”

    No, we haven’t done this generation any favors.

    Based on the current political climate, things could very well get much worse before they ever take a turn for the better. Here are a few pieces of advice that will hopefully help those coming of age today survive the perils of the journey that awaits:

    Be a thinking individual. For all of its claims to champion the individual, American culture advocates a stark conformity which, as John F. Kennedy warned, is “the jailer of freedom, and the enemy of growth.” Worry less about fitting in with the rest of the world and instead, as Henry David Thoreau urged, become “a Columbus to whole new continents and worlds within you, opening new channels, not of trade, but of thought.”

    Learn your rights. We’re losing our freedoms for one simple reason: most of us don’t know anything about our freedoms. At a minimum, anyone who has graduated from high school, let alone college, should know the Bill of Rights backwards and forwards. However, the average young person, let alone citizen, has very little knowledge of their rights for the simple reason that the educational system no longer teaches them and spends little time on the rights of the people. So grab a copy of the Constitution and the Bill of Rights, and study them at home. And when the time comes, stand up for your rights before it’s too late.

    Speak truth to power. Don’t be naive about those in positions of authority. As James Madison, who wrote our Bill of Rights, observed, “All men having power ought to be distrusted.” We must learn the lessons of history. People in power, more often than not, abuse that power. To maintain our freedoms, this will mean challenging government officials whenever they exceed the bounds of their office.

    Resist all things that numb you. Don’t measure your worth by what you own or earn. Likewise, don’t become mindless consumers unaware of the world around you. Resist all things that numb you, put you to sleep or help you “cope” with so-called “reality.” Those who establish the rules and laws that govern society’s actions desire compliant subjects. However, as George Orwell warned, “Until they become conscious, they will never rebel, and until after they rebelled, they cannot become conscious.” It is these conscious individuals who change the world for the better.

    Don’t let technology turn you into zombies. Technology anesthetizes us to the all-too-real tragedies that surround us. Techno-gadgets are merely distractions from what’s really going on in America and around the world. As a result, we’ve begun mimicking the inhuman technology that surrounds us and we have lost our humanness. We’ve become sleepwalkers. If you’re going to make a difference in the world, you’re going to have to pull the earbuds out, turn off the cell phones and spend much less time viewing screens. Then, maybe you’ll see the world for what it really is.

    Help others. We all have a calling in life. And I believe it boils down to one thing: You are here on this planet to help other people. In fact, none of us can exist very long without help from others. If we’re going to see any positive change for freedom, then we must change our view of what it means to be human and regain a sense of what it means to love and help one another. That will mean gaining the courage to stand up for the oppressed.

    Give voice to moral outrage. As Martin Luther King Jr. said, “Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about the things that matter.” There is no shortage of issues on which to take a stand. For instance, on any given night, over half a million people in the U.S. are homeless, and half of them are elderly. There are 46 million Americans living at or below the poverty line, and 16 million children living in households without adequate access to food. Congress creates, on average, more than 50 new criminal laws each year. With more than 2 million Americans in prison, and close to 7 million adults in correctional care, the United States has the largest prison population in the world. At least 2.7 million children in the United States have at least one parent in prison. At least 400 to 500 innocent people are killed by police officers every year. Americans are now eight times more likely to die in a police confrontation than they are to be killed by a terrorist. On an average day in America, over 100 Americans have their homes raided by SWAT teams. It costs the American taxpayer $52.6 billion every year to be spied on by the government intelligence agencies tasked with surveillance, data collection, counterintelligence and covert activities. All the while, since 9/11, the U.S. has spent more than $1.6 trillion to wage wars abroad and police the rest of the world. This is an egregious affront to anyone who believes in freedom.

    Cultivate spirituality, reject materialism and put people first. When the things that matter most have been subordinated to materialism, we have lost our moral compass. We must change our values to reflect something more meaningful than technology, materialism and politics. Standing at the pulpit of the Riverside Church in New York City in April 1967, Martin Luther King Jr. urged his listeners:

    [W]e as a nation must undergo a radical revolution of values. We must rapidly begin the shift from a “thing-oriented” society to a “person-oriented” society. When machines and computers, profit motive and property rights are considered more important than people, the giant triplets of racism, materialism, and militarism are incapable of being conquered.

    Pitch in and do your part to make the world a better place. Don’t rely on someone else to do the heavy lifting for you. Don’t wait around for someone else to fix what ails you, your community or nation. As Gandhi urged: “Be the change you wish to see in the world.”

    Say no to war. Addressing the graduates at Binghampton Central High School in 1968, at a time when the country was waging war “on different fields, on different levels, and with different weapons,” Twilight Zone creator Rod Serling declared:

    Too many wars are fought almost as if by rote. Too many wars are fought out of sloganry, out of battle hymns, out of aged, musty appeals to patriotism that went out with knighthood and moats. Love your country because it is eminently worthy of your affection. Respect it because it deserves your respect. Be loyal to it because it cannot survive without your loyalty. But do not accept the shedding of blood as a natural function or a prescribed way of history—even if history points this up by its repetition. That men die for causes does not necessarily sanctify that cause. And that men are maimed and torn to pieces every fifteen and twenty years does not immortalize or deify the act of war… find another means that does not come with the killing of your fellow-man.

    Finally, prepare yourselves for what lies ahead. The demons of our age—some of whom disguise themselves as politicians—delight in fomenting violence, sowing distrust and prejudice, and persuading the public to support tyranny disguised as patriotism and/or keeping us “safe.” Overcoming the evils of our age will require more than intellect and activism. It will require decency, morality, goodness, truth and toughness. As Serling concluded in his remarks to the graduating class of 1968:

    “Toughness is the singular quality most required of you… we have left you a world far more botched than the one that was left to us… Part of your challenge is to seek out truth, to come up with a point of view not dictated to you by anyone, be he a congressman, even a minister… Are you tough enough to take the divisiveness of this land of ours, the fact that everything is polarized, black and white, this or that, absolutely right or absolutely wrong. This is one of the challenges. Be prepared to seek out the middle ground … that wondrous and very difficult-to-find Valhalla where man can look to both sides and see the errant truths that exist on both sides. If you must swing left or you must swing right—respect the other side. Honor the motives that come from the other side. Argue, debate, rebut—but don’t close those wondrous minds of yours to opposition. In their eyes, you’re the opposition. And ultimately … ultimately—you end divisiveness by compromise. And so long as men walk and breathe—there must be compromise…

    Are you tough enough to face one of the uglier stains upon the fabric of our democracy—prejudice? It’s the basic root of most evil. It’s a part of the sickness of man. And it’s a part of man’s admission, his constant sick admission, that to exist he must find a scapegoat. To explain away his own deficiencies—he must try to find someone who he believes more deficient… Make your judgment of your fellow-man on what he says and what he believes and the way he acts. Be tough enough, please, to live with prejudice and give battle to it. It warps, it poisons, it distorts and it is self-destructive. It has fallout worse than a bomb … and worst of all it cheapens and demeans anyone who permits himself the luxury of hating.”

    As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, the only way we’ll ever achieve change in this country is for the American people to finally say “enough is enough” and fight for the things that truly matter. 

    It doesn’t matter how old you are or what your political ideology is. If you have something to say, speak up. Get active, and if need be, pick up a picket sign and get in the streets. And when civil liberties are violated, don’t remain silent about it.

    Wake up, stand up, and make your activism count for something more than politics in a world turned upside down.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/14/2021 – 22:20

  • Restaurateurs Begin To Automate Amid Labor Shortage 
    Restaurateurs Begin To Automate Amid Labor Shortage 

    Restaurant owners are blaming generous unemployment benefits for the current labor shortage. Ahead of the busy summer season, some restaurateurs are warning they might have no other choice but to use robots. 

    According to Andrew Gruel, founder and CEO of Slapfish seafood, with 11 locations in the Southwestern US and new ones quickly opening up across the country, if the labor shortage persists, significant changes to the restaurant industry are coming in the form of automation.

    “What I fear in terms of the long-term effects of this is that we start to automate and robotize our industry,” Gruel told Fox News. “That’s the only option if a lot of these businesses are going to continue to try and survive, especially when there’s a lack of labor or if the cost of labor is so high that it’s prohibitive for anybody to grow.”

    “It’s is a really, really tough and tight labor market,” said Gruel. “I’ve talked to restaurants who are not even opening because they don’t have the staff to be able to hit a certain amount of hours.”

    Slapfish is so desperate for workers that it’s offering dishwashers with no experience for $20-$25 per hour. The chain is even offering $500 signing bonuses. 

    “We’ve had to alter our operations. We’re limiting hours. My wife, myself, my kids we’re in 12, 14, 16 hours a day,” he said. “That’s really what it’s come down to. It’s a lot of owner-operators stepping in, scaling back on growth, and getting down in the weeds themselves.”

    Gruel believes one primary reason for the labor shortage is President Biden’s unemployment benefits that disincentivize people to work because they make more money collecting stimulus checks.

    In one Jersey Shore restaurant, called Island Grill, the labor shortage is getting so ridiculous that they have already turned to robotic servers. 

    “Once we realized that we may not have any servers this summer, we were like, ‘Well, we may need to look into this a little more,'” Island Grill owner Andrew Yoa told News12. 

     Yoa said his restaurant is currently leasing the robot, known as “Little Peanut.” The robot serves as a food runner and busboy to support server staff.

    “It’s basically extra arms for them so that they could be getting a drink order for someone and the meals for another table could be coming out or an appetizer could be coming out,” he said. “It can do multiple stops so it can stop at one station, drop off an appetizer and go to drop someone’s meal off.”

    A full-blown labor shortage is underway thanks to trillions in Biden stimulus are now incentivizing potential workers not to seek gainful employment, but to sit back and collect the next stimmy check for doing absolutely nothing in what is becoming the world’s greatest “under the radar” experiment in Universal Basic Income.

    The National Owners Association (NOA), an independent, self-funded advocacy group of McDonald’s franchisees, warned earlier this week that an “inflationary time bomb” is being triggered by labor shortages. 

    NOA went on to warn that higher wages, signing bonuses, and paid interviews are no longer working as fast-food workers sit at home collecting stimulus checks. 

    NOA said franchisees must increase pay and benefits to attract workers. These additional labor costs will be passed onto the consumer in the form of higher Big Mac prices. 

    The Federal Reserve’s narrative that inflation is “transitory” is a load of crap. Prepare for much higher costs at fast-food joints. 

    Bank of America recently warned clients: “Buckle up! Inflation is here.” 

    As for now, technological unemployment is set to soar as workers are sidelined, showered by free money from the federal government that disincentivizes them from working. By the end of this decade, hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of fast-food workers will be displaced by automation and artificial intelligence. Now is the time to boost automation, get these workers out of crappy jobs and retrain them for the new economy. Or, in Biden’s world, keep these people at home on UBI.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/14/2021 – 22:00

  • Flaws Found In Australian Electronic Voting Software
    Flaws Found In Australian Electronic Voting Software

    Authored by Daniel Teng via The Epoch Times,

    Four cyber and electoral system researchers have identified three flaws around the use of electronic voting at the 2020 election for the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) government.

    The researchers said the issues did not affect the outcome of the most recent election but warned that the flaws could be exploited in future to sway voting patterns.

    “We are not claiming that corruption occurred, nor that the system was designed with that goal in mind. There certainly were errors undetected by Elections ACT; however,” they said in a submission (pdf) to the ongoing Inquiry into the 2020 ACT Election and the Electoral Act.

    “It is not good enough that there is no evidence of manipulation—a voting system should offer voters and scrutineers solid evidence that the votes are private, and the announced result is correct.”

    The ACT, home to Australia’s capital city Canberra, was the first jurisdiction in the country to use the electronic voting and counting system (EVACS) and has done so in the subsequent 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016 elections.

    In the ACT Electoral Commission’s submission (pdf) to the Inquiry, they noted that the use of electronic voting had increased in the 2020 election to 70 percent, which is more than double the amount from the 2016 election.

    Meanwhile, the submission compiled by Andrew Conway, Thomas Haines, Tim Wilson-Brown, and Vanessa Teague, CEO of Thinking Cybersecurity, said, “We found three errors that could potentially change the results of an election, though in 2020—by good luck—they do not seem to have changed the winners.”

    The first was that EVACS had issues with how it handled preference votes. The system—which groups votes based on “transfer value”—failed to group certain votes because they acquired their transfer value in different ways.

    “In 2020, this caused some tallies to be wrong by more than 20 votes; in general, it could cause much larger divergences,” they said.

    A second issue was that the ACT Electoral Act explicitly requires counts to be “rounded down” to 6 decimal places, but EVACS rounded to the “nearest” 6 decimal places.

    “This causes errors on the order of millionths of a vote and is very unlikely to change the outcome,” the researchers conceded.

    Lastly, EVACS had further inaccuracies with rounding transfer values.

    “This is important because a transfer value’s effect may be multiplied by thousands of votes. This causes errors on the order of thousandths of votes and could possibly make a difference in a very close race.”

    Voters in the electorate of Eden-Monaro on July 2, 2016, in Canberra, Australia (Martin Ollman/Getty Images)

    The researchers recommended the system—including voting code and system documentation—be made available publicly six months before an election so errors or vulnerabilities can be identified.

    Further, all system modifications, audits, and declarations should be complete before candidate nominations close.

    They also called for onsite e-voting systems to be used in conjunction with paper records that are voter-verifiable. Lastly, they said internet voting needed to be discontinued due to the “high levels” of risk involved in current internet software.

    In Australia, similar concerns have been raised around New South Wales’ iVote system in 2019, where Teague, who at the time worked for the University of Melbourne, found an error that could convert valid votes into invalid ones and not be counted.

    Scrutiny around voting systems, however, reached fever-pitch during the contentious 2020 U.S. presidential election.

    In one instance in Michigan state’s Antrim County, two counts of the same vote—one conducted digitally and the latter via hand recount—revealed vastly different results.

    Earlier in 2016, concerns were already being raised around electronic voting systems in the United States, including problems with faulty touchscreens, outdated software, hacking through a local wireless network, and poor encryption.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/14/2021 – 21:40

  • Priced Out Of The Newly-Built Housing Market, Millennials Are Turning To "Fixer-Uppers"
    Priced Out Of The Newly-Built Housing Market, Millennials Are Turning To “Fixer-Uppers”

    What was once a feel-good story about millennials moving out of their parents basements and finally buying houses of their own has now turned into a story about them being priced out of the market. Thanks, Federal Reserve.

    The scorching hot price of housing has forced millennials to now turn to fixer-uppers as a “more affordable solution” for homes to buy, a new Business Insider report notes. According to Bank of America Research’s sixth annual millennial home improvement survey, 82% of millennials have said they are more likely to buy a fixer-upper than a newly built home.

    The U.S. has been underbuilding homes since the Great Recession, the report notes, pushing millennials toward their “second housing crisis in 12 years”. Demand from millennials has “only exacerbated the shrinking inventory” and “led to cutthroat competition rife with bidding wars”,  BI notes. 

    The report points out Instagram pages like Cheap Old Houses, which focuses on historic homes selling for no more than $100,000 that offer fixer-upper opportunities. The account has grown to 1.5 million followers from 750,000 early last year. 

    The devil is, of course, in the details. Fixer-upper homes often wind up costing just as much as newly built homes. The B of A survey noted that while many buyers started their projects within 6 months of buying their homes, the larger portions of remodels – like bathroom and kitchen projects – get remanded to the back burner in favor of cheaper fixes like painting and landscaping.

    Millennials “feel more at ease painting and wallpapering and upgrading appliances, compared to more complex projects like altering floor plans and roofing,” BI notes. As a result, some are now taking out loans to complete larger portions of their remodels. B of A notes that loans are being used more frequently than cash to fund projects over $10,000. 42% of respondents are using debt, versus 34% back in 2017.

    Recall, we noted days ago that the Federal Reserve continued to increase its holdings of mortgage-backed securities by the tune of $40 billion per month, fueling a housing bubble with record-low mortgage rates and low inventory. 

    Even as the housing sector has more than recovered from the downturn, Chair Jerome Powell continues “pedal to the metal” with MBS purchases. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), this has resulted in the median price for a single-family home to soar the most on record in the first quarter. 

    “Nationally, the median existing-home sales price rose 16.2% on a year-over-year basis to $319,200, a record high since 1989. All regions recorded double-digit year-over-year price growth, with the Northeast seeing a 22.1% increase, followed by the West (18.0%), South (15.0%), and Midwest (14.4%),” NAR said. 

    And as home prices surge, Powell still doesn’t have a satisfactory answer for why the Fed continues its massive MBS purchases every month. 

    Here’s Powell’s quote in full from an April press conference:

    “Yeah. I mean, we started buying MBS because the mortgage-backed security market was really experiencing severe dysfunction, and we’ve sort of articulated, you know, what our exit path is from that. It’s not meant to provide direct assistance to the housing market. That was never the intent. It was really just to keep that as, it’s a very close relation to the Treasury market, and a very important market on its own.

    And so, that’s why we bought as we did during the global financial crisis. We bought MBS, too. Again, not intention to send help to the housing market, which was really not a problem this time at all. So, and, you know, it’s a situation where we will taper asset purchases when the time comes to do that, and those purchases will come to zero over time. And that time is not yet.”

    Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said, “record-high home prices are happening across nearly all markets, big and small, even in those metros that have long been considered off-the-radar in prior years for many home-seekers.” 

    Of the 183 metro areas covered by NAR, 163 had double-digit price gains, up from 161 in the fourth quarter. In a separate report, Redfin’s monthly data showed that in April, homes sold at their fastest pace on record with nearly half off-market within one week.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/14/2021 – 21:20

  • Minnesota Black School Choice Movement "Explicitly Rejects" Narrative That America Is Racist
    Minnesota Black School Choice Movement “Explicitly Rejects” Narrative That America Is Racist

    Authored by GQ Pan via The Epoch Times,

    A school choice movement aimed at serving Minnesota’s black community has vowed to tackle the notion that the United States is a racist nation, saying such narratives are “structured to undermine the lives of black Americans.”

    The newly founded organization, TakeCharge Minnesota, describes itself on its website as seeking to “inspire and educate the black community and other minority groups in the Twin Cities to take charge of their own lives, the lives of the families and communities, as citizens fully granted to them in the Constitution.”

    “We acknowledge that racist people exist in the country, but explicitly reject the notion that the United States of America is a racist country,” the organization states.

    “We also denounce the idea that the country is guilty of systemic racism, white privilege and abhor the concept of identity politics and the promotion of victimhood in minority communities.”

    According to the website, the organization is headed by Kendall Qualls, a health care executive and Army veteran. He was also a Republican contender for Minnesota’s 3rd Congressional District, which remains occupied by incumbent Democrat Rep. Dean Phillips following the 2020 election.

    “People who helped me in life were black and white, rich and poor, male and female, gay and straight,” Qualls said in March in an interview with the Minnesota Reformer.

    “Americans help each other when they see someone trying to better their lot in life, and most Americans don’t put a filter on it based on skin color.”

    “To me, it’s insulting to hear that black people can’t get ahead because of systemic racism,” he told the outlet.

    TakeCharge Minnesota also lists five core doctrines it wants to promote, including the one that says “restoring the two-parent black family should be a priority both locally and nationally,” a belief in opposition to that of the Black Lives Matter organization, which calls for an end to the “Western-prescribed nuclear family structure.”

    “The nuclear family is the bedrock of any society and it has been decimated and ignored in the Black community for five decades,”

    TakeCharge Minnesota declares, adding that raising children in a marriage is “the best way to reduce poverty, combat inequality, and develop socially productive children.”

    School choice programs have gained popularity in recent years among the nation’s black families, plenty of which have been benefited from the expansion of high-quality public school alternatives, especially those in low-income neighborhoods. An October 2020 survey by conservative think tank Manhattan Institute found that between 51 and 62 percent of all respondents supported state funding of charter schools. This support was higher for black respondents in all states and ranged from 58 to 67 percent.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/14/2021 – 21:00

  • COVID 'Billionaire Boom' Has Seen Aggregate Wealth More Than Double To $13 Trillion
    COVID ‘Billionaire Boom’ Has Seen Aggregate Wealth More Than Double To $13 Trillion

    America’s billionaire class is now the second most “bloated” in the world after…Sweden?

    If that sounds strange, it’s just one example of how the global explosion in wealth is impacting the world in unexpected ways.

    This is according to research by FT contributing editor Ruchir Sharma, who has been tracking the global rise of billionaires over the past decade while devising metrics to allow for an apples-to-apples comparison. In this way, Sharma has been able to determine whether individual billionaires derived their wealth from “good” sources (“clean” industries like tech or manufacturing) vs. “bad” billionaires who inherited their wealth, or built it in more corrupt corners of the economy, like real-estate or natural resources (primarily oil).

    The tremendous surge in prices of assets from stocks, to homes, to used cars to collectibles has benefited the wealthy most of all. Last year, China led the world in billionaire-creation, with 238 billionaires created, roughly one every 36 hours, bringing the country’s total to 626. In aggregate, billionaire wealth climbed to $13 trillion from $5 trillion in the span of a year.

    Sharma highlighted wealth inequality across a group of developed and developing economies by comparing total billionaire wealth to GDP, the annual aggregate value of goods and services produced in a given economy.

    Source: FT

    The surge in equity valuations over the past year accrued primarily to “good” billionaires, as Sharma characterized them (though of course AOC and those like her believe that there are no ‘good’ billionaires, and that billionaires’ existence is a ‘policy error’). “‘Good’ billionaires still rule the class,” he said.

    Sharma also found that national reputation had little bearing on billionaire wealth accumulation over the past year, which saw billionaires in left-leaning France see their total assets jump from 11% to 17% of French GDP. Meanwhile, in conservative Britain, billionaires share of wealth remained flat.

    While the population of billionaires exploded in China (something that may have informed Beijing’s crackdown on its tech billionaires) inequality in the US actually decreased slightly, perhaps due to the stimulus that stuffed bank accounts of working-class Americans and those who lost work.

    While Jeff Bezos gets a lot of hate as a modern-day robber-baron, Sharma points out that Bezos’ wealth is actually smaller than the Rockefeller fortune in its heyday.

    The scale of American wealth is also worth considering in context. As the world’s richest man, Jeff Bezos’s $177bn may seem mind-boggling. But at 0.8 per cent of GDP, it is far from Rockefeller wealth, which at his peak amounted to 1.6 per cent of GDP. There are, however, many real Rockefellers in other countries, including five in Sweden, two each in Mexico, France, India and Indonesia, and one each in Spain, Canada, Italy and Russia. Top of the Rockefellers list are self-made fashion king Amancio Ortega of Spain, telecom titan Carlos Slim of Mexico and Bernard Arnault of France; each has a fortune equivalent to more than 5 per cent of his home country’s GDP. 

    But there are some billionaires who are more wealthy than Rockefeller, using a ratio of their total wealth to the annual GDP of their respective home economy.

    One notable recent development: In the emerging world, Russia has long held the title of world capital for “bad” billionaires. But last year, it ceded that title to Mexico. The 2020 surge took Mexico’s share of “bad” billionaire wealth up to 75%, leaving Russia second worst among the big developing nations, at 60%, or 3x the average for emerging nations. 

    The backlash to the “billionaire class” typically increases in correlation with the pace of their wealth accumulation. Whatever happens next in terms of the evolution of public attitudes toward the concentration of wealth in family fortunes will depend on where the boom goes from here.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/14/2021 – 20:40

  • Buchanan: Are The Halcyon Days Over For Joe Biden?
    Buchanan: Are The Halcyon Days Over For Joe Biden?

    Authored by Pat Buchanan,

    On taking the oath of office, Jan. 20, Joe Biden may not have realized it, but history had dealt him a pair of aces.

    The COVID-19 pandemic had reached its apex, infecting a quarter of a million Americans every day. Yet, due to the discovery and distribution of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, the incidence of infections had crested and was about to turn sharply down.

    By May, the infection rate had fallen 80%, as had the death toll.

    Thanks to the Operation Warp Speed program driven by President Donald Trump, the country made amazing strides in Biden’s first 100 days toward solving the major crises he inherited: the worst pandemic since the Spanish flu of 1918-1919 and the economic crash it had engendered.

    But Biden’s pace car has hit the wall.

    Where economists had predicted employment gains of a million new jobs in April, the jolting figure came in at about a fourth of that number.

    One explanation: The $300-a-week in bonus unemployment checks the Biden recovery plan provides may have been a sufficient inducement for workers to stay home until their benefits ran out.

    Workers might reasonably ask: Why go back to work when we can take the summer off, with full unemployment, plus $300 a week?

    After the crushing jobs report came the inflation figure from April.

    Consumer prices had risen 4.2%, the highest rate in a dozen years.

    April’s combination of inflation and near-stagnant job growth recalls the “stagflation” of the Jimmy Carter years, which led to the Democratic rout of 1980 at the hands of Ronald Reagan.

    And while we may not be suffering from stagflation just yet, the present symptoms in the U.S. economy are certainly consistent with it.

    The bad news from the inflation front also sent the Dow and other markets plunging and raised fears of future Fed intervention to raise interest rates to choke off the inflation.

    Moreover, rising prices, driven in part by our historic federal deficits, stiffened the spines of Republicans in their resistance to Biden’s $2.3 trillion infrastructure and jobs program, his $1.8 trillion in added domestic spending and his $4 trillion in taxes to pay for it all.

    Sen. Mitch McConnell came out of Wednesday’s White House meeting with Biden to say that any tampering with the Trump tax cuts crosses a “red line” for him and Senate Republicans.

    The odds on Biden getting any of his taxes has just fallen dramatically. And he may be forced to come down closer to the GOP proposal if he hopes to get any of his infrastructure package through.

    At present, Biden does not have a single sure Republican vote for his spending proposals — and even some Democrats in the evenly divided Senate oppose his plans for social spending and higher taxes.

    Added to this economic news was a stunning ransomware attack on Colonial Pipeline, which feeds fuel to states from Texas to New Jersey.

    Within days, the shutdown of the pipeline had induced panic buying of gas at the pumps, resulting in a sweeping closure of gas stations from Delaware to the Gulf Coast.

    As alarming as the ransomware attack was, more alarming is what it portends if cybercriminals abroad can, with the flick of a switch, inflict such instant damage on the U.S. economy.

    If cybercriminals can pull this off, what can our adversaries, with their sophisticated and superior weapons of cyberwarfare, not do to the United States?

    But that was not the end of the bad news for Biden this week.

    A shooting war erupted between Hamas and Israel after a dispute over ownership of homes in East Jerusalem led to clashes between Arab protesters and Israeli police at the al-Aqsa Mosque on the Temple Mount.

    The clashes brought barrages of over 1,000 rockets directed at Israeli towns and cities including Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. The Ben Gurion International Airport was forced to shut down.

    Those who believed Trump’s Abraham Accords, where Israel was recognized by the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco, had ensured a more tranquil future suddenly seemed to have been as wrong as previous generations of optimists.

    Today, even inside Israel, Arabs and Jews, both Israeli citizens, are battling in the streets.

    Meanwhile, in Kabul, three bombs outside a high school killed 50 people and wounded scores more, many of them teenage girls — a portent of what may be coming when the Americans and allied troops are gone from the country by the 20th anniversary of 9/11.

    But the defining crisis of the Biden presidency may be the crisis on America’s southern border, where another 170,000 illegal immigrants entered the country in April after an equally high number in March.

    That is an annual rate of 2 million people walking into our country uninvited, the advance guard of a Third World invasion that will change the character and composition of the United States.

    The America we grew up in is disappearing — without our consent.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/14/2021 – 20:20

  • Demand For Active Shooter Insurance Soars As Post-Pandemic America Reopens
    Demand For Active Shooter Insurance Soars As Post-Pandemic America Reopens

    As the US returns to some normalcy after a year of the virus pandemic, demand for active shooter insurance has surged following a spate of mass shootings across the country, according to Reuters. 

    Tarique Nageer, Terrorism Placement Advisory Leader at Marsh, the world’s largest insurance broker, reports client requests for active shooter policies have surged by 50% year on year in the past six weeks. These policies cover victim lawsuits, building repairs, legal fees, medical expenses, and trauma counseling.

    Chris Kirby, head of political violence cover at insurer Optio, said active shooter policy rates have doubled for some clients due to recent mass shootings. He wasn’t specific about what industries the policy rates jumped. 

    Other insurer brokers are saying hospitals, retail businesses, schools, universities, restaurants, and places of worship are purchasing the special insurance with coverage ranging between $1 million and $75 million. 

    A shocking report from Gun Violence Archive, a non-profit research group, says in the first 132 days of 2021, there were 200 mass shootings in the US, averaging more than one per day. 

    Hart Brown, senior vice president of R3 Continuum, a crisis management consultancy, said violence shifted from public spaces into homes in 2020. He said demand for his company’s services is up by 20%, adding that the reopening of businesses in a post-pandemic world has brought violence back to the workplace. 

    “The environment that was created by the pandemic, with the social distancing, the lockdown, and so forth and the compounding stressors is really what’s driving much of the violence that we see right now,” Brown said.

    We’ve noted forced lockdowns and economic depression with high unemployment would result in a lapse in American’s mental health. A recent survey by Kaiser Family Foundation provides more concrete evidence Americans are experiencing high levels of anxiety or depressive disorders. 

    President Biden has called the wave of mass shootings a “national embarrassment,” and his only solution is to ban military-style “assault” weapons and large-capacity ammunition magazines. What is that exactly going to solve when civilians own more than 390 million guns. Even with a potential ban, people are still going to make ghost guns and 3D-printed weapons. 

    A mental health crisis rages in America as mass killings are out of control. Whatever happened to Biden’s “unity” calls?

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/14/2021 – 20:00

  • Biden Admin Sued Over Alleged Discrimination Against Certain Bar And Restaurant Owners
    Biden Admin Sued Over Alleged Discrimination Against Certain Bar And Restaurant Owners

    Authored by Janita Kan via The Epoch Times,

    A Texas cafe owner is taking the Biden administration to court over alleged discrimination that prevents him from receiving COVID-19 relief grants because of his race and gender.

    Philip Greer, the owner of Greer’s Ranch Café, has sued the Small Business Administration (SBA), alleging that he would miss out on receiving a Restaurant Revitalization Fund grant because the federal law requires the agency to prioritize awarding grants to women and racial minorities.

    Section 5003 of the American Rescue Plan Act requires the agency prioritize women, veterans, and socially and economically disadvantaged business owners applying to receive a portion of the $28.6 billion appropriated to create the Restaurant Revitalization Fund.

    According to Small Business Administration regulations, socially disadvantaged individuals are individuals “who have been subjected to racial or ethnic prejudice or cultural bias within American society because of their identities as members of groups and without regard to their individual qualities. The social disadvantage must stem from circumstances beyond their control.”

    Meanwhile, economically disadvantaged individuals are considered to be those whose “ability to compete in the free enterprise system has been impaired due to diminished capital and credit opportunities as compared to others in the same or similar line of business who are not socially disadvantaged.”

    Greer, who is represented by America First Legal and Texas Public Policy Foundation, argues that such policy actively excludes entire classes of Americans not mentioned in the “priority” group who are also suffering significant financial losses caused by the pandemic.

    “The Small Business Administration lurches America dangerously backward, reversing the clock on American progress, and violating our most sacred and revered principles by actively and invidiously discriminating against American citizens solely based upon their race and sex. This is illegal, it is unconstitutional, it is wrong, and it must stop,” the lawsuit states (pdf).

    The lawsuit calls on the court to block the enforcement of any policy that would discriminate against certain classes of Americans, arguing that this would be necessary to “promote equal rights under the law for all American citizens and promote efforts to stop racial discrimination.”

    “The decision from the Biden Administration to determine eligibility and priority for restaurant relief funds based upon race is profoundly illegal and morally outrageous,” AFL President and former Trump adviser Stephen Miller said in a statement. “It is an affront to our laws, our Constitution, and our most dearly-held values.”

    SBA administrator Isabella Casillas Guzman was also named in the suit as a defendant. The SBA’s press office said it is their policy to not comment on pending litigation when reached for comment.

    Small Business Administration chief Isabel Guzman attends a Cabinet meeting with President Joe Biden in the East Room of the White House in Washington, D.C., on April 1, 2021. (ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP/Getty Images)

    On Thursday, the SBA announced that they had received 147,000 applications from women, veterans, and socially and economically disadvantaged business owners who requested a total of $29 billion in relief funds.

    “The numbers show that we’ve been particularly successful at reaching the smallest restaurants and underserved communities that have struggled to access relief. These businesses are the pillars of our nation’s neighborhoods and communities,” Guzman said in a statement.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/14/2021 – 19:40

  • Bill Gross's 44-Year-Old Successor Quits To Spend Time With Kids "While They Still Like Me"
    Bill Gross’s 44-Year-Old Successor Quits To Spend Time With Kids “While They Still Like Me”

    In the wake of Friday’s underwhelming jobs number, the media has been hungry for stories about people quitting prestigious jobs – like the Goldman MD who reportedly quit after making a fortune off dogecoin.

    The latest example comes courtesy of Bloomberg, which reported last night that the man who succeeded legendary ‘Bond King’ Bill Gross as the head of global bonds at Janus Henderson (which oversees some $400 billion) has abruptly quit the firm to ‘spend more time with family’.

    And while that familiar line is closely associated with departing executives looking to obscure the unsavory nature of their departure, in Nick Maroutsos’ case, it’s  not only genuine, but the subject of a profiled by Bloomberg as a prominent example of how “the YOLO economy” – as the NYT recently termed it – is inspiring high-paid employees to “take risks” and “embrace life”.

    Already wealthy at 44, Maroutsos said he planned to take time off from his career – at least a year, he said – to travel the country with his young children “while they still like me.”

    At just 44, Nick Maroutsos has one of the most elite jobs in money management: the head of global bonds at Janus Henderson Investors, a firm that oversees some $400 billion.

    But he’s walking away from it in October to consider his second act and hit the road for cross-country trips with his young children while – as he put it – “they still like me.”

    Maroutsos, best known as the successor to former bond king Bill Gross, says he hasn’t quite decided what he’ll do next. But whatever it is, it will involve following his 14-year-old daughter to lacrosse tournaments around the country and spending time with his wife and two other young children.

    The bond head is joining the legions of well-off Americans who are casting off the shackles of their day jobs, spurred by a “life-is-short” mentality galvanized by a year of effective hibernation. It’s just one of the unexpected outcomes of the pandemic era, which has empowered some to jettison corporate life.

    “I will work again at some point,” he said in a phone interview on Wednesday. “In a year’s time, I will probably resurface in some capacity. I’m looking at things potentially outside of fixed income. But I’m not good enough at other things, like either music or cooking, to do them.”

    After receiving his master’s at UCLA, Maroutsos started at PIMCO (the firm that Gross built) as an analys before leaving in 2007 to launch Kapstream Capital, his own fixed-income investing firm that was acquired by Janus eight years later, not long after Gross left/was fired by PIMCO over what colleagues complained was increasingly erratic behavior.

    Despite the public legal fallout and disturbing stories about Gross’s often antagonistic personal behavior, Gross took a top job at Janus where he sought to burnish his legacy. Unfortunately, a few wrong-way bets in Gross’s unconstrained strategy fund precipitated Gross’s retirement from the industry, though he has continued to trade, recently announcing a bet against GameStop.

    After Gross’s retirement, Maroutsos and his team mixed the various strategies he employed with some of their own. The biggest fund that Maroutsos helps oversee is the Janus Henderson Short Duration Income ETF, which has a market capitalization of almost $3 billion and total return of 2.5% since the since pandemic lockdowns started in mid-March 2020. He is also co-manager of the Absolute Return Income Opportunities Fund, which has seen a 2.4% return over the past year.

    As for his decision to follow Gross out the door, Maroutsos said the pandemic gave him a lot of time to think about “where I want to be in the next 10 years”. And ultimately he decided to follow Gross out the door.

    “I had reached a point in my career where I had been in fixed-income markets for the last 20 years, and was looking at what the future holds,” he says. “I was looking at my own career progress and decided now is as good a time as any to take a step back and hit the reset button.”

    “The pandemic has caused everybody to sort of reevaluate not just their career paths, but goals in life,” Maroutsos added. “I spent a lot of time thinking about that and where I want to be in the next 10 years. I’m quite fortunate to be able to do this at my age.”

    Perhaps Maroutsos is simply hoping to avoid the acrimony that has famously afflicted Gross and his family?

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/14/2021 – 19:20

  • A Society Based On The Social Credit System Is Closer Than You Think
    A Society Based On The Social Credit System Is Closer Than You Think

    Authored by Robert Wheeler via The Organic Prepper blog,

    The social credit system took yet another step forward—this time, from Down Under. Under the guise of a welfare crackdown, Australia moved 25,000 people onto a cashless card system that restricts non-essential purchases. 

    Aussie welfare recipients only access to funds is via a cashless debit card

    Australia’s government forced thousands of welfare recipients on to Centrelink, a cashless debit card. Under a massive expansion of the plan and new Federal Budget, immigrants have no access to most kinds of welfare for four years after attaining residency. However, the most crucial aspect of Centrelink is Aussies cannot use the cards for gambling, alcohol, or cigarettes. Only necessities like groceries and food can be purchased with the cards. 

    East Kimberley and Goldfields in Western Australia, Ceduna in South Australia, and the Bundaberg-Hervey Bay region of Queensland trialed the cards beginning in 2016. Under this scheme, 80 percent of welfare recipients’ Centrelink payment will go directly to the card rather than a bank account. That is supposed to keep recipients from wasting the welfare on unnecessary items.

    Treasurer Josh Frydenberg unveiled the plan to make the scheme permanent in the trial locations. The plan also includes extending it to 25,000 people in the Northern Territory and Cape York.

    The Australian government’s recent budget includes a $30 million package to “upskill” people at the trial sites and offer a jobs fund to boost employment opportunities. The plan includes funding for drug and alcohol rehabilitation services in the cashless debit card locations as well. 

    Don’t be so quick to judge. This plan is not what it seems

    Many people will rejoice, happy that the “welfare queens” can no longer lie about drinking beer and smoking while others toil away at work to pay for those luxuries. However, the truth is that this scheme is much more insidious than it may at first appear.

    No one wants to pay higher taxes so that those who do not want to work can squander welfare benefits. But knee-jerk reactions that lend support to schemes like this will ultimately lead to a social credit system, UBI, and financial allotmentt entirely controlled by the government. Implementation of these schemes is likely not only in Australia but across the world.

    What is a social credit system?

    For those unaware of what a “social credit system” is, Business Insider’s article summarizes it well. In the article “China has started ranking citizens with a creepy ‘social credit’ system — here’s what you can do wrong, and the embarrassing, demeaning ways they can punish you,” Alexandra Ma writes: 

    The Chinese state is setting up a vast ranking system that will monitor the behavior of its enormous population and rank them all based on their “social credit.”

    The “social credit system,” first announced in 2014, aims to reinforce the idea that “keeping trust is glorious and breaking trust is disgraceful,” according to a government document.

    The program is due to be fully operational nationwide by 2020 but is being piloted for millions of people across the country already. The scheme will be mandatory.

    At the moment, the system is piecemeal — some are run by city councils, others are scored by private tech platforms which hold personal data.

    Like private credit scores, a person’s social score can move up and down depending on their behavior. The exact methodology is a secret — but examples of infractions include bad driving, smoking in non-smoking zones, buying too many video games, and posting fake news online.

    That system is coming to the United States and the rest of the world soon

    Brandon Turbeville mentions the coming merger of the social credit and UBI systems here:

    While most Americans have scarcely noticed their descent into a police state, they are quick to dismiss the idea that such a system could be implemented in the land they still perceive to be free. However, all the moving parts are in place in the United States. They only need to come together to form the Social Credit System here. 

    And they ARE coming together.

    Social media is a critical method of judging “social scores.” Mainly because of the willful posting of social media users on virtually every aspect of their lives. Users give away the most personal and intimate details of their lives and do so without charge.

    This data is extremely useful to governments who monitor and store the freely acquired information. Whether it is political opinions, pictures of yourself and your food, or private conversations, that data is sent directly to the corporation. Respective governments then have access to that data via various means and put that data to good use.

    In this article, Daisy offers insight into the data collection in the United States.

    People seem blind to what is coming

    The UBI, of course, is an old idea and one so old that philosopher/activist Bertrand Russell even discussed it. The UBI, cashless society, and social credit system will soon combine to create the largest, most effective police state ever known to man. A society where any criticism or resistance of the government will result in an immediate shut down of credits and the trespasser being frozen entirely out of society.

    It may feel good now, but soon it won’t. When it no longer does, well, you were warned. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/14/2021 – 19:00

  • JPMorgan, Others To Unveil Credit Cards For People With No Credit Scores
    JPMorgan, Others To Unveil Credit Cards For People With No Credit Scores

    After a year of clamping down on new credit card, mortgage, and commercial loan issuance in the aftermath of the COVID pandemic, US commercial banks are planning to issue credit cards to people with no credit scores. 

    WSJ reports JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and US Bancorp, and others will extend credit to people who cannot obtain a credit card. Instead of using credit scores to vet an applicant, these banks will use other factors, including checking or savings accounts, to increase their chances of being approved. 

    Sources told WSJ the pilot program to give credit cards to people with no credit would begin this year. There was no mention of the start date.

    This comes as consumer lending standards have never been this loose since around the time records began in 1991, while auto loans are similarly among the loosest on record.

    And here is a chart looking at just the record loose print in credit card standards:

    As explained by WSJ’s source, the pilot program aims at “individuals who don’t have credit scores but who are financially responsible.” 

    According to Fair Isaac Corp., the creator of FICO credit scores, some 53 million American adults don’t have traditional credit scores. Many are often rejected by banks and have to use payday loans, a costlier way to finance money. 

    A 2015 report by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau said Black and Hispanic adults in the US have higher probabilities of lacking credit scores than White or Asians. So perhaps the new pilot program by the fat cats on Wall Street opens the credit spigot to minorities. 

    More details about the program include JPMorgan might approve a credit-card application from a person who has a checking account at Wells Fargo but doesn’t have a credit score.

    JPMorgan is expected to be the first to use the deposit-account data to extend credit to people.

    Wall Street’s push to flood credit cards to people who don’t have credit scores comes as consumer credit explodes higher, and it’s never been easier to obtain a plastic card.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/14/2021 – 18:40

  • Psaki: Teaching "1619 Project" Critical Race Theory In College Is "Responsible"
    Psaki: Teaching “1619 Project” Critical Race Theory In College Is “Responsible”

    Authored by GQ Pan via The Epoch Times,

    White House press secretary Jen Psaki on Thursday said it is responsible for colleges to teach the idea that racism is embedded in the American system, dismissing criticism that such teaching aims at indoctrinating American youth.

    In a White House press briefing, Psaki was asked about a proposed legislation by Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) that would place an one percent tax on the value of the endowments of the country’s wealthiest private colleges, and use that money to support vocational education and training.

    The reporter noted that Cotton’s proposal would affect institutions that teach “un-American ideas” such as those of critical race theory and the New York Times’s “1619 Project,” which argue the United States was founded as, and remains, a racist nation.

    “Without much detail of where he thinks our youth are being indoctrinated, it sounds very mysterious and dangerous,” Psaki said after asking what exactly Cotton means by un-American indoctrination and what he plans to do with the money.

    “I don’t think we believe that educating the youth and the future leaders of the country on systemic racism is indoctrination. That’s actually responsible.”

    “But, I would say, if he’s trying to raise money for something, then our view is there’s lots of ways to do that,” she continued.

    “We know that a number of corporations hugely benefited financially during the pandemic. They could pay more taxes. We think the highest one percent of Americans can pay more taxes.”

    Cotton’s proposal, known as the Ivory Tower Tax Act, was introduced earlier this week.

    “Our wealthiest colleges and universities have amassed billions of dollars, virtually tax-free, all while indoctrinating our youth with un-American ideas,” the senator said in a press release.

    “This bill will impose a tax on university mega-endowments and support vocational and apprenticeship training programs in order to create high paying, working-class jobs.”

    An outspoken critic of the 1619 Project, Cotton last year introduced the “Saving American History Act of 2020” that would reduce federal funding to public schools where the highly controversial narrative is taught as actual U.S. history. The bill is currently in consideration in the Senate Education and Labor Committee.

    Spearheaded by the New York Times’ Nikole Hannah-Jones, the 1619 Project is known for portraying the United States as an inherently racist nation founded on slavery. It consists of a collection of essays that argue, among many other controversial claims, that the real reason for the American Revolution was to preserve slavery, and that slavery was the primary driver of American capitalism during the 19th century.

    The integrity of the 1619 Project has been questioned by a variety of scholars, most notably those on the Trump administration’s advisory 1776 Commission. In its first and last report, the commission criticized the project for promoting a distorted account of the nation’s founders, and called for a return to “patriotic education” focusing on how generations of Americans overcame racism to live up to the ideals enshrined in the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/14/2021 – 18:20

  • TSMC Set To "Double Down" And Vastly Increase U.S. Semi Production Investment In Arizona
    TSMC Set To “Double Down” And Vastly Increase U.S. Semi Production Investment In Arizona

    At the beginning of May, we noted that Taiwan Semiconductor was considering bolstering its production in the U.S., and that President Biden’s Commerce Secretary was urging more domestic production. Now, it looks like TSMC could be within striking distance of a serious U.S. expansion. 

    The chipmaking giant is “weighing plans to pump tens of billions of dollars more into cutting-edge chip factories in the U.S. state of Arizona than it had previously disclosed”, a Reuters exclusive revealed Friday morning.

    The company had already said it was going to invest $10 billion to $12 billion in Arizona. Now, the company is mulling a more advanced 3 nanometer plant that could cost between $23 billion and $25 billion, sources said. The changes would come over the next 10 to 15 years, as the company builds out its Phoenix campus, the report notes.

    The move would put TSMC in direct competition with Intel and Samsung for subsidies from the U.S. government. President Joe Biden has proposed $50 billion in funding for domestic chip manufacturing – a proposal the Senate could act on as soon as this week. Intel has also committed to two new fabs in Arizona and Samsung is planning a $17 billion factory in Austin, Texas. 

    TSMC CEO C.C. Wei said on a call last month: “But in fact, we have acquired a large piece of land in Arizona to provide flexibility. So further expansion is possible, but we will ramp up to Phase 1 first, then based on the operation efficiency and cost economics and also the customers’ demand, to decide what the next steps we are going to do.”

    TSMC has also said that talks in Europe regarding expansion have gone “very poorly”, increasing the likelihood that the chip giant will be focused more on the U.S.

    There are no plans for a plant in Europe, a TSMC spokesperson said. 

    TSMC has, however, been poaching talent from companies like Intel. The company recently hired 25 year Intel veteran Benjamin Miller to head up its human resources in Arizona. TSMC chairman and founder Morris Chang has warned about a thin talent pool in the U.S., stating: “In the United States, the level of professional dedication is no match to that in Taiwan, at least for engineers.”

    Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, earlier this month, called for a “major increase” in U.S. production capacity of semiconductors. She commented: “Right now we make 0% of leading-edge chips in the United States. That’s a problem. We ought to be making 30%, because that matches our demand. So, we will promise to work hard every day, and in the short term also see if we can have more chips available so the automakers can reopen their factories.”

    “In the process of building another half a dozen fabs in America, that’s thousands of Americans that get put to work,” Raimondo commented. 

    Just last week we noted how automakers were being forced to leave some high tech features out of new vehicles as a result of the semi shortage. Days before that, we pointed out “thousands” of Ford trucks sitting along the highway in Kentucky, awaiting semi chips for completion of assembly. 

    We also noted recently that Stellantis said there would be “no end in sight” to the shortage and that the company was making changes to its lineup, including changing the dashboard of the Peugeot 308, to try and adapt to the crisis. Ford was another auto manufacturer to slash its expectations for full year production as a result of the shortage this year. 

    The chip crisis has hit the auto industry so hard that it has forced rental car companies – already under immense pressure from ride sharing companies – to buy up used cars at auction to fulfill their inventory needs, Bloomberg also noted earlier this month. 

    Intel’s CEO, speaking on 60 Minutes earlier this month, said: “We have a couple of years until we catch up to this surging demand across every aspect of the business.” Days prior, we wrote that Morgan Stanley had also suggested the shortage could continue “well into 2022”. 

    Prior to Ford’s report, we wrote about how the chip shortage was becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy, due to a shortage of chipmaking equipment. In the days leading up to that report, we wrote that Taiwan

    In early April, we wrote that U.S. exporters of semiconductor chipmaking tools were struggling to get licenses to sell to China. The U.S. government had been dragging its feet in approving licenses for companies to sell chipmaking equipment to Chinese semi company SMIC, we noted at the time.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/14/2021 – 18:00

  • Biden's State-Sponsored Labor Shortage
    Biden’s State-Sponsored Labor Shortage

    Authored by Greg Orman via RealClearPolitics.com,

    President Biden spoke at the White House earlier this week to address an unsettling national trend – millions of jobs going unfilled in an economy still struggling to right itself. The president couldn’t deny the existence of the paradox: His own administration’s numbers show that millions of Americans are drawing unemployment while millions of jobs are going unfilled.

    But he and his top economic officials dismissed the most obvious explanation for April’s dismal job numbers – generous unemployment benefits eroding the incentive to work.

    “We don’t see much evidence of that,” Biden said.

    It was a line dutifully echoed by his designee to run the Commerce Department, the Cabinet department tasked with compiling employment numbers. But it’s a disingenuous argument. The Commerce Department, through the Bureau of Labor Statistics, derives employment numbers by compiling two surveys of employment – one completed by roughly 144,000 employers and another completed by approximately 54,000 American citizens. Neither of these surveys actually ask if an employee has been offered a job and turned it down. And it’s awfully hard to find evidence of something when you’re not actually looking for it.

    The president’s remarks Monday were in response to an April jobs report showing that only 266,000 Americans rejoined the workforce at a time when employers coast to coast are reporting that they have job openings but can’t find willing workers. As if to underscore the sheer perverseness of the situation, the following day the government released data showing that job openings in March are up by 597,000 – to a staggering 8.1 million. This is the highest number of job openings since the government started tracking them at the turn of the century. It could be the highest ever.

    You don’t need evidence to know that incentives matter. Common sense will suffice. But there is evidence, which I’ve witnessed first-hand.

    In April 2020, as businesses were grappling with how to navigate the pandemic and associated shutdowns, I was involved in helping half a dozen businesses plan for the unknown. Their stories are instructive. In one instance, the CEO of an Idaho firm had to lay off a significant number of manufacturing staffers as orders declined precipitously. As he gathered everyone in the plant and shared the sobering news that all but three employees were going to be furloughed, one of those being kept on audibly groaned when his name was called. Roughly eight weeks later he persuaded the CEO to lay him off — saying that he, too, deserved an extended “paid vacation” — and call back one of the other employees.

    As the pandemic progressed into the summer and fall, a Kansas City manufacturer that prints invitations and promotional items (neither big sellers in an age of Zoom meetings and social distancing) was finally able to call back furloughed workers. All his employees were offered their job back, but 20% declined (three out of four of those were still receiving unemployment compensation). The company, which pays its press operators starting pay of $22 an hour and provides benefits including health insurance, disability, and a 401(k) match, is now relying on temp agencies to fill vacancies.

    Anyone with light industrial jobs, such as another Kansas City employer I aided, is likely also struggling to fill roles. In the near term, they’re hoping college students on their summer breaks will fill vacancies. A recent discussion with a local light industrial placement company revealed that it has over 200 job openings and no prospects for filling them.

    This isn’t to say that there aren’t many Americans who are legitimately claiming benefits as they search for work and try to stay afloat from the significant economic pain incurred during the pandemic. But the stories articulated above, and thousands of similar ones, paint a compelling and ominous picture. The purposeful constriction of the labor market by the federal government constitutes a state-sponsored labor strike. And we don’t need signs and picket lines to see the evidence – Democrats are happy to read their party’s stage directions out loud.

    “Let’s get one thing straight: there is no labor shortage,” tweeted Robert Reich, who headed the Department of Labor in Bill Clinton’s administration.

    “There is a shortage of employers willing to pay their workers a living wage.”

    On Monday, the president regurgitated Reich’s talking point: “People will come back to work if they’re paid a decent wage.”

    Spoken like a true union boss.

    So that’s the endgame here? Using government money, all of it borrowed, to jack up wages? The problem with this state-sponsored labor shortage is that the pain is one-sided. Strikes work precisely because both sides have something obvious to lose if they don’t work out an agreement. With generous unemployment benefits (largely tax-free), paid health care (employers are now required to provide, free of charge, six months of COBRA coverage to laid off employees, which the government theoretically will reimburse), and no enforceable requirement to look for a job, there’s no real monetary incentive to go back to work. In some cases, it may not even be a rational act: A married woman with two kids, who is her family’s only breadwinner and making the average national wage of $30 an hour will have an after-tax income that’s within a dollar an hour of her old wage if she remains unemployed. She’ll also have paid health insurance, likely a huge benefit. And she won’t have to worry about day care, either, which is an issue in the many places where teacher unions (and school districts controlled by them) are refusing to return to the classroom.

    Those people on the front lines of providing social welfare services to poorer Americans often decry the “benefits cliff” that greets Americans trying to improve their lives. The argument is that if we take away a dollar of benefits for every dollar someone earns, we leave them with no incentive to improve their lot in life. It’s an argument I fully embrace and have used to argue for a more gradual reduction in benefits as Americans pull themselves out of poverty. Biden has created an enormous benefits cliff and is now arguing the other side of the coin.  

    Biden’s hope that this labor force constriction will permanently raise wages is a dangerous gamble. All three of the companies mentioned above are now implementing automation and other strategies to improve their operations without adding workers. While they are all growing and will have roles for each of their current workers long into the future, other employees at different companies may not be so lucky. Not everyone can work for the government, but if we continue with these policies, millions more will be dependent on a government check.

    The real answer to lifting up American workers lies not in more unemployment benefits but in helping them obtain the skills they need to perform higher value work. This will require a whole host of changes to our educational system. A good place to start would be re-examining our guaranteed student loan programs to ensure kids getting welding and machining certificates qualify on the same basis as university students. It will require public/private partnerships between employers and professional colleges to train workers in relevant skills. Importantly, it will require evaluating K-12 education to ensure kids are prepared for the world they are entering. Those changes and many other similar ones should be the focus of the Biden administration’s efforts to lift people up. Short-term strategies that artificially distort markets will only work so long before they come crashing down on the people they’re intended to help.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/14/2021 – 17:40

Digest powered by RSS Digest

May 14

Today’s News 14th May 2021

  • Poll Shows 27% Of European Adults Likely To Refuse Vaccine In Latest Threat To Growth Outlook
    Poll Shows 27% Of European Adults Likely To Refuse Vaccine In Latest Threat To Growth Outlook

    After getting off to a rocky start, Europe’s vaccination campaign has accelerated in recent weeks, despite lingering restrictions on the continent’s “workhorse” AstraZeneca jab (over concerns about deadly cerebral blood clots that have affected a small number of patients with low blood-platelet counts), and lingering skepticism among many younger people, including health-care workers.

    According to the latest numbers from Bloomberg, more than 1.36 billion doses of various vaccines have been administered (though this figure likely leaves out many millions who have been vaccinated in China) and of these, EU countries have administered just over 200M. Still, only 12% of European adults have been fully vaccinated, and that number has been rising with agonizing slowness.

    And as the US prepares to start vaccinating children as young as 12, vaccine skepticism remains a major long-term obstacle to Europe’s long-term growth outlook, which is becoming an increasingly important piece of many investors’ outlook for an expected sharp rebound in global growth over the coming year as the developed world emerges from the COVID era.

    Just this morning, Starwood’s Barry Sternlicht exclaimed during an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that Europe is still mostly under lockdown. But when it reopens “hold on to your chair.”

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    Well, the latest data out of Europe show that what the FT calls “vaccine hesitancy” remains widespread:

    In the bloc, 27 per cent of adults said they were “very unlikely” or “rather unlikely” to agree to a coronavirus shot, the Eurofound survey showed.

    Hesitancy is highest in eastern countries, with Bulgaria leading with 61% saying they’re “nervous” about the jab.

    Rejection is higher in many eastern European countries, with Bulgarians the most hesitant of all: 61 per cent are nervous of receiving the jab. Elsewhere in the region, the report finds more than 30 per cent hesitancy in Latvia, Croatia, Slovenia, Poland and Slovakia. Some are as high as 50 per cent.

    But the most skeptical among the larger EU countries might surprise readers: It’s France – where only half of adults say they are “likely” or “rather likely” to get the vaccine. The numbers for Spain and Italy are much lower at just 20%.

    All this begs the question: As Europe’s biggest economies remain under lock and key (with the notable exception of the UK), will the Continent ever reopen?

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/14/2021 – 02:45

  • Ahmadinejad Is Back: Iranian Firebrand Announces Bid For Presidency 
    Ahmadinejad Is Back: Iranian Firebrand Announces Bid For Presidency 

    At a moment that Iranian domestic politics are on a knife’s edge of tension, particularly following the recent hardliner vs. ‘moderate’ row in the wake of the ‘Zarif Gate’ audio leak scandal wherein the foreign minister blasted the military establishment for often sabotaging diplomacy, the Islamic Republic’s former firebrand president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is vying again for leadership of the country.

    On Wednesday he formally submitted and announced his name as a candidate in the upcoming June 18 presidential elections. His Islamic conservative and ‘hardline’ reputation could have drastic impact on the continuing nuclear negotiations with the West should he be elected. 

    He out of the gate referenced that the centrality of the Islamic revolution is vital for safeguarding the country’s interests during a press conference announcing his candidacy.

    “My presence today for registration was based on demand by millions for my participation in the election,” he told reporters after registering. He added: “considering the situation of the country, and the necessity for a revolution in the management of the country.”

    VOA described of his announcement, “Thronged by shouting supporters, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad marched to a registration center at the Interior Ministry where he filled out registration forms. He held up his hands in a ‘V for Victory’ salute, before addressing reporters.”

    The 64-year old Ahmadinejad was Iran’s president from 2005 through 2013 during a period of constant tensions with Washington prior to the 2015 nuclear deal, given the US had accused Iran of sponsoring attacks on American troops in neighboring Iraq, and as Iranian support for Assad during the early period of Syria’s war became more entrenched.

    His disputed 2009 re-election, it should be noted, sparked mass protests which found support from the Western leaders who lambasted Tehran for suppressing the demonstrators.

    Current president Hassan Rouhani, reputed a “moderate” and who famously struck the JCPOA nuclear deal with world powers during Obama’s presidency, cannot run again due to term limits. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/14/2021 – 02:00

  • Escobar: An Insider's View Of The Tragedy Of The US Deep State
    Escobar: An Insider’s View Of The Tragedy Of The US Deep State

    Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    Henry Kissinger, 97, Henry the K. for those he keeps close, is either a Delphic oracle-style strategic thinker or a certified war criminal for those kept not so close…

    He now seems to have been taking time off his usual Divide and Rule stock in trade – advising the combo behind POTUS, a.k.a. Crash Test Dummy – to emit some realpolitik pearls of wisdom.

    At a recent forum in Arizona, referring to the festering, larger than life Sino-American clash, Henry the K. said,

    “It’s the biggest problem for America; it’s the biggest problem for the world. Because if we can’t solve that, then the risk is that all over the world a kind of cold war will develop between China and the United States.”

    In realpolitik terms, this “kind of Cold War” is already on; across the Beltway, China is unanimously regarded as the premier U.S. national security threat.

    Kissinger added U.S. policy toward China must be a mix of stressing U.S. “principles” to demand China’s respect and dialogue to find areas of cooperation:

    “I’m not saying that diplomacy will always lead to beneficial results…This is the complex task we have… Nobody has succeeded in doing it completely.”

    Henry the K. actually must have lost the – diplomatic – plot. What Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov are now involved in, full time, is to demonstrate – mostly to the Global South – how the American-enforced “rules-based international order” has absolutely nothing to do with international law and the respect of national sovereignty.

    At first I had archived these Henry the K. platitudes out of sight. But then someone who used to hold a stellar position at the top of the U.S. Deep State showed he had been paying close attention.

    This personality – let’s call him Mr. S. – has been one of my invaluable, trustworthy sources since the early 2000s. Mutual confidence was always key. I asked him if I could publish selected passages of his analysis, not naming names. Consent was given – ruefully. So fasten your seat belts.

    Dancin’ with Mr. S.

    Mr. S., in a quite intriguing fashion, seems to be expressing the collective views of a number of extremely qualified people. Right from the start, he points out how Henry the K.’s observations explain today’s Russia-China-Iran triangle.

    The first point that we make is that it was not Kissinger who created policy for Nixon, but the Deep State. Kissinger was just a messenger boy.  In the 1972 situation the Deep State wanted to get out of Vietnam, which policy was put in place as containment of communist China and Russia.  We were there based on the domino theory.

    He goes on:

    The Deep State wanted to achieve a number of objectives in approaching Chairman Mao, who was antagonized by Russia. It wanted to ally in 1972 with China against Russia. That made Vietnam meaningless, for China would become the containing party of Russia and Vietnam no longer meant anything. We wanted to balance China against Russia.  Now, China was not a major power in 1972 but it could drain Russia, forcing it to place 400,000 troops on their border.  And our Deep State policy worked. We in the Deep State had thought it through, and not Kissinger. 400,000 troops on the Chinese border was a drain on their budget, as later Afghanistan became with over 100,000 troops, and the Warsaw Pact had another 600,000 troops.

    And that brings us into Afghanistan:

    The Deep State wanted to start a Vietnam for Russia in Afghanistan in 1979.  I was among those against it, as this would needlessly use the Afghani people as cannon fodder and that was unfair. I was overruled. Here Brzezinski was playing Kissinger; another overrated nothing who just carried messages.

    The Deep State also decided to crash the oil price, as that would economically weaken Russia. And that worked in 1985, driving the price to eight dollars a barrel, which ate up half the Russian budget. Then, we basically gave permission for Saddam Hussein to invade Kuwait as a ploy to send in our advanced army to knock him out and demonstrate our superiority to the world in weaponry, which very much demoralized the Russians and put the fear of God into Islamic oil.  Then we created the Star Wars fiction.  Russia to our surprise lost their nerve and collapsed.

    Mr. S. defines all of the above as “wonderful” in his opinion, as “communism went out and Christianity came in”:

    We then wanted to welcome Russia into the community of Christian nations, but the Deep State wanted to dismember them. That was  stupid, as they would balance against China at least from their Mackinder point of view. It was naive on my part to hope to a return of Christianity, as the West was moving rapidly toward total moral disintegration.

    In the meantime, our ally China continues to grow as we were not finished with the dismemberment of Russia and the advisors we sent to Russia destroyed the whole economy in the 1990s against my objections. The 78-day Belgrade bombing finally woke Russia up and they started a massive re-militarization as it was obvious that the intention was in the end to bomb Moscow into the ground. So defensive missiles became essential. Thus, the S-300, S-400, S-500 and soon S-600s.

    The Deep State had been warned by me at our meetings on how bombing Belgrade in 1999 would cause Russia to remilitarize and I lost the argument. Belgrade was bombed for 78 days versus the vengeance bombing of Hitler for two days.  And China continues to grow.

    Why balance of power doesn’t work

    And that bring us to a new era – that started in practice with the Chinese announcement of the New Silk Roads in 2013 and Maidan in Kiev in 2014:

    China wakes up to all of this in that they begin to realize that they have been just used, and that the U.S. fleet controls their trade routes, and decides to approach Russia in 2014 just about the time of their witnessing the Maidan overthrow of Ukraine.  This overthrow was organized by the Deep State when they started to understand that they had lost the arms race, and did not even know what was happening.

    The Deep State wanted to draw Russia into a Vietnam again in the Ukraine to drain them and crash the oil price again, which they did.  Beijing studied this and saw the light. If Russia is overthrown, the West will control all their natural resources, which they see themselves needing as they grew into a giant economy larger than the U.S.  And Beijing starts to open up a warm relationship with Moscow seeking to obtain land based natural resources as oil and natural gas from Russia to avoid the seas for natural resources as much as they can. In the meantime, Beijing massively accelerates its building of submarines carrying missiles capable of destroying the U.S. fleets.

    So where does Kissinger in Arizona fit in?

    Now, Kissinger reflects the Deep State angst on the Russia-Chinese relationship and wants this split up for dear life. This is interestingly covered here by Kissinger. He does not want to tell the truth about balance of power realities. He describes them as “our values”, when the U.S. has no values left but anarchy, looting, and burning down hundreds of cities. Biden hopes to buy all these disenfranchised masses as money printing goes wild.

    So we are back to Kissinger shocked at the new Russian-Chinese alliance. They must be separated.

    Now, I do not agree with the balance of power intriguers in that morality or noble values should govern international relations, and not power. The U.S. has been following balance of power dreams since 1900 and now it faces economic ruin. These ideas do not work.  There is no reason the U.S. cannot be a friend of Russia and China and the differences can be worked out. But you cannot get to first base as balance of power considerations dominate everything. That is the tragedy of our time.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/14/2021 – 00:05

  • Desperate Indian Communities Embrace Anti-Malaria Drugs To Protect Against COVID Surge
    Desperate Indian Communities Embrace Anti-Malaria Drugs To Protect Against COVID Surge

    For the past month and a half, the international community has watched in horror as India has suffered from one of the world’s deadliest national outbreaks of COVID-19, provoked in part by a prime minister who held massive political rallies, and allowed massive gatherings for the celebration of Hindu religious holidays, gatherings that epidemiologists say helped seed the latest outbreak.

    Even as the US and Europe have sent vaccines, medicine, oxygen tanks and other supplies, the government has refused to impose more restrictive measures, and the number of daily deaths has continued to accelerate.

    The number of deaths eclipsed 4K on Thursday, topping that level for the second day in a row, as hundreds of patients succumbed to the disease while waiting in ambulances and cars in lengthy queues stretching from the nation’s overrun hospitals.

    As doctors search for alternatives to remedies like Gilead’s remdesevir, a recent Reuters report highlighted just how desperate communities have become to protect against the virus. The situation is so dire, a small number of communities have embraced the unconventional strategy of dosing their populations with anti-malarial drugs to protect against COVID-19 – even though anti-malarial treatments like hydroxychloroquine supposedly don’t function as a COVID-19 prophylactic (that is, according to certain studies widely cited by the medical establishment. Others suggest that the strategies being used by these communities just might work).

    Reuters reports that at least two Indian states have said they plan to dose their populations with the anti-parasitic drug ivermectin to protect against severe COVID-19 infections. And they’re moving ahead with this plan despite the WHO’s statement in late March that the current evidence is “inconclusive”.

    The move by the coastal state of Goa and northern state of Uttarakhand, come despite the World Health Organization and others warning against such measures.

    “The current evidence on the use of ivermectin to treat COVID-19 patients is inconclusive,” WHO said in a statement in late March. “Until more data is available, WHO recommends that the drug only be used within clinical trials.”

    Merck, a manufacturer of the drug, has also said available data does not support using the drug as a COVID-19 treatment

    “We do not have enough data to support its use,” said Anita Mathew, an infectious diseases expert in Mumbai.

    While one of the states plans to distribute the medicine to those older than 18, the other plans to administer the medicine to all residents above the age of 2.

    The state of Goa, a major tourist haven, said earlier this week it plans to give ivermectin to all those older than 18, while the Himalayan state of Uttarakhand announced plans on Wednesday to distribute the tablets to any person over the age of two, except for pregnant and lactating women.

    “An expert medical panel has recommended this” Uttarakhand’s Chief Secretary Om Prakash told Reuters. “We are waiting for supplies to come in. Once they do we will distribute this drug.”

    Uttarakhand state in March and April played host to the Kumbh Mela, a weeks-long Hindu gathering that attracted millions of devotees from across the country. Images of the gathering showed scant evidence of any mask wearing or social distancing as throngs of people congregated for a holy dip in the river Ganges.

    The state, ruled by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party, has since early April seen its COVID-19 cases surge from under 300 a day to above 7,000 a day and the death toll has also risen sharply.

    One local health official rattled off some evidence that the population-wide dosing might help ameliorate the impact of the pandemic.

    Goa Health Minister Vishwajit Rane said an expert panel based in Europe had found the drug ivermectin reduced the time to recovery and risk of death, but regulators such as WHO and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration say there is little evidence of this.

    The state-run Indian Council of Medical Research recommends doctors could use the drug for mild COVID-19 patients, but warns this is based on “low certainty of evidence”.

    Meanwhile, India reported 362,727 new COVID-19 infections over the last 24 hours while deaths climbed by 4,120, taking the death toll to 258,317, according to health ministry data. The country’s total confirmed cases now stands at 23.7M, though many cases and deaths are believed to have gone uncounted.

    Source: Johns Hopkins

    Meanwhile, the country’s vaccination rate has accelerated slightly as foreign batches arrive (and the benefits of India’s export restrictions have helped to enhance local supply).

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/13/2021 – 23:45

  • Ron Paul: COVID Authoritarians Are Abusing Children
    Ron Paul: COVID Authoritarians Are Abusing Children

    Authored by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity,

    Centers for Diseases Control (CDC) Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky has “recommended” that children wear masks while playing. Her offered reason is to ensure Covid is not spread by “heavy breathing” of children near each other while around a soccer ball.

    Dr. Walensky’s recommendation is one more example of Covid authoritarians’ refusal to “listen to the science.” The science says no to lockdowns and masks. The masks are not blocking the very small viruses in “heavy breathing.” Dr. Walensky also ignores the science showing that wearing a mask while exercising or playing sports has negative health effects.

    Dr. Walensky’s most outrageous disregard of science is ignoring the fact that children are statistically unlikely to be at risk of either spreading Covid or becoming very sick from it.

    Dr. Walensky’s recommendation is one of many examples of how children are harmed by the overreaction to coronavirus. Many children have had their physical and mental health damaged because they cannot go to school, play with their friends, or even have a birthday party because of the lockdowns.

    Disappointingly, but not surprisingly, the two major teachers’ unions — the National Education Association (NEA) and the American Federation of Teachers (AFT) — have stood in the way of reopening schools. Teachers’ union leaders have claimed it is too dangerous for teachers to resume in-person instruction, even though adults are at little or no risk of getting Covid from children. Sadly, teachers’ unions are disregarding the interest of children. Recently released emails show the CDC disregarded the science in favor of the AFT’s restrictive guidance when developing recommendations concerning reopening schools.

    The negative effects of lockdowns and school closings for children have led many parents to consider alternatives to government schools.

    Some private schools have not just remained open, they have followed the science and not forced their students to wear masks.

    Many parents are also considering homeschooling. Homeschooling parents obviously can ensure their children are not forced to obey mask, social distancing, and other unscientific mandates.

    Parents interested in providing their children with a quality education that emphasizes the ideas of liberty should consider my homeschooling curriculum. The Ron Paul Curriculum provides students with a well-rounded education that includes rigorous programs in history, mathematics, and the physical and natural sciences. The curriculum also provides instruction in personal finance. Students can develop superior communication skills via intensive writing and public speaking courses. Another feature of my curriculum is that it provides students the opportunity to create and run their own internet-based businesses.

    The government and history sections of the curriculum emphasize Austrian economics, libertarian political theory, and the history of liberty. However, unlike government schools, my curriculum never puts ideological indoctrination ahead of education.

    Interactive forums allow students to learn from each other outside of a formal setting. The curriculum’s emphasis on self-directed learning and student interaction makes it ideal for parents who need to work from home but still want to homeschool their children.

    I encourage parents looking at alternatives to government schools to go to RonPaulCurriculum.com for more information about my homeschooling program.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/13/2021 – 23:25

  • Australia "Ready" To Resume Dialogue With China As Beijing Ratchets Trade War
    Australia “Ready” To Resume Dialogue With China As Beijing Ratchets Trade War

    The past months have seen Australia-China relations reach their lowest point in history. That decline was brought about in Canberra’s decision to join the United States in seeking to curtail China’s economic and political rise, particularly during the final year of the Trump administration.

    The cost has been huge for Australian exports, given China has long been its biggest trading partner, and has since the summer played hardball as it holds all the cards in the trade war, unleashing barriers and sanctions resulting in severe collateral damage on everything from seafood to coal to barley to wine to beef, and tourism sectors – along with hitting some other commodities, even timber.

    And now Australia says it’s ready and willing to resume dialogue with Beijing. On Thursday Australia’s Foreign Minister Marise Payne announced at a press conference while standing alongside US Secretary of State Antony Blinken: “Australia seeks a constructive relationship with China we stand ready at any time, amongst all of my counterparts and colleagues, to resume dialogue.”

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    She underscored further while meeting her US counterpart in D.C. that Australia is “open, clear, consistent” on the number of immense challenges it faces with China.

    And Blinken responded by assuring its ally that the United States will not leave Australia “alone” in the face of China’s aggressive economic coercion. 

    “I reiterated that the United States will not leave Australia alone on the field, or maybe I should say alone on the pitch, in the face of economic coercion by China. That’s what allies do. We have each other’s backs so we can face threats and challenges from a position of collective strength,” Blinken said.

    Payne had followed up further with saying her country “seeks a constructive relationship with China” and that “We stand ready at any time, amongst all of my counterparts and colleagues, to resume dialogue.”

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    “But we have also been open and clear and consistent about the fact that we are dealing with a number of challenges. We welcome the clear expressions of support from Washington as Australia works through those differences. It is hard to think of a truer expression of friendship,” the top Australian diplomat added.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/13/2021 – 23:05

  • Scholars Line Up To Join Anti-‘Woke’ Online Education Platform
    Scholars Line Up To Join Anti-‘Woke’ Online Education Platform

    Submitted by Peter Svab of The Epoch Times,

    Hundreds of scholars, including some distinguished figures, have applied for positions at an online education startup that promises explicitly non-“woke” instruction in a number of academic disciplines.

    A college student follows a remote class in Los Angeles (Getty Images).

    Named “American Scholars,” the project was started several months ago by Matthew Pohl, former University of Pennsylvania admissions officer. As soon as word got out, résumés started to stream in from academics offering their participation, its leaders said.

    Pohl described the project as the fruit of his gradual disillusionment with his career in the academic world, where he drove admissions at several prestigious universities. He noticed that with regard to education, most students weren’t getting their money’s worth, attributing that to the “administrative bloat” of establishment colleges, as well as the spread of quasi-Marxist ideologies that have come to be collectively known as “wokeness.”

    He intends the project as an antidote to both. The interactive format of part-lecture, part-documentary video with quizzes, and feedback sessions will aspire to demonstrate that quality learning can be furnished at a fraction of the cost of a modern-day college. Meanwhile, the content itself will be rooted in traditional American values, in sharp contrast to the ideologies currently dominating most universities that promote hostility toward such values.

    “There is a massive and unrecognized demand for actual professors, business leaders, real thinkers whom regular people can associate with and learn from to better understand how they can live better lives through the Constitution and through conservative values,” Pohl told The Epoch Times, later adding that the guiding principles of the project could be more accurately described as “classical liberalism.”

    “We actually expect a significant number of people who do not identify as conservative to join us—simply because they agree with our values,” he said in an email.

    For the role of chief academic officer, who is responsible for the scholarly grade of the content, Pohl tapped Michael Rectenwald, a retired liberal studies professor at New York University.

    Having given up his communist beliefs, Rectenwald left his job after he irked colleagues by criticizing the woke ideology. He went on to become an authority on corporate socialism, a convergence of government and business interest in establishing a novel form of totalitarian, socialist rule. He’s authored several books on the topic, including “Google Archipelago: The Digital Gulag and the Simulation of Freedom,” which warns against the rising power and ambitions of gigantic digital companies.

    American Scholars will offer modules taught by bona fide academics on history, the Constitution, the natural sciences, math, writing, business, economics and personal finance, ideological studies, literature, technology science, law, and religious studies, Rectenwald said.

    He’s already received applications from several hundred scholars, including some prominent names, from which he’ll be soon picking the first 10 instructors.

    “We even have chairs of departments interested in working for us,” he said.

    Rectenwald shared with The Epoch Times a sample of the applicants’ names under the condition that they won’t be released for now, as none of them has yet been selected for any of the positions. In addition, Rectenwald has his own list of “top-notch talent” he’ll ask to come onboard.

    “It’s going to be something where they’re able to deliver content in the way they want to, without the pressures that are being exerted on them in the university system to accommodate various ideologies like critical race theory and socialism and postmodernism and so forth,” he said, adding that such ideologies also will be taught, but from a critical standpoint.

    The first offerings, planned to start in the fall, will focus on history, the Constitution, economics, and personal finance, he said.

    The material will be suited for homeschoolers, college prep, as well as adult learning.

    The project doesn’t seek to be accredited as an actual university, but rather to equip its alumni with the knowledge to “push back against some of the pernicious ideologies that are being purveyed in the system,” Rectenwald said.

    “We’ve got to be frank. We’re in the midst of a major culture war.”

    The content range, as well as the format of the platform, was selected based on a series of focus group polls of a total of about 1,000 families, Pohl said. Personal finance, for example, stood out as both an acute interest of the poll respondents as well as a blind spot of the current university system, where students often sign up for massive debt with little to no calculation of return on investment that would allow them to make such decisions adeptly, according to Pohl.

    Development of the online platform is run by an expert who for now requires anonymity, due to his involvement with Big Tech, Pohl said.

    So far, the project is self-funded with some offers coming in from investors, he said. He plans a subscription model starting at $19 a month and scaling up to about $39 a month for premium access.

    American Scholars fits into a growing selection of education platforms that approach their material from a more traditional standpoint. The conservative Hillsdale College offers free courses on a variety of politically relevant subjects, while PragerU recently began offering an online education portal for K–12 students.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/13/2021 – 22:45

  • "This Is The Ministry Of Truth": Merriam-Webster Edits Definition For "Anti-Vaxxer" To Include Opponents Of Mandatory Jabs
    “This Is The Ministry Of Truth”: Merriam-Webster Edits Definition For “Anti-Vaxxer” To Include Opponents Of Mandatory Jabs

    In another horrifyingly Orwellian example of the media world powers-that-be – in this case, dictionary impresario Merriam-Webster, struggling for relevance in the digital age – the official definition of the word “anti-vaxxer” (a recent edition to Merriam-Webster’s dictionary) has been changed to include people who oppose forced inoculation mandates.

    It’s a subtle, but still shocking, example of how the White House’s narrative trickles down through the media firmament, from the news, to talk shows, and even to the dowdy business of reference-book publishing.

    RT reported on the change, citing a tweet from rapper and podcaster Zuby, who tweeted a photo of the changed definition with the caption “Welcome to 1984. This is The Ministry of Truth”.

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    Many others commented, with some noting that they now fit the definition of “anti-vaxxer”, a term that has sunk to just a notch above “nazi” in the parlance of American Social Justice Warriors.

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    Others pointed out that this is what happens when the left dominates the media landscape.

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    This isn’t the first time that Merriam-Webster has been embroiled in an ugly political episode. Back in October, Merriam-Webster edited its definition of the word “preference” to explicitly note that it is now considered “offensive” in reference to a person’s “sexual preference.” The revision helped back up Hawaii Democratic Senator Mazie Hirono when she accused Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett of being biased against gay people when she used the term as a synonym for ”sexual orientation.”

    For the record, the term “anti-vaxxer” is relatively new, having entered the Merriam-Webster dictionary lexicon in 2009. The connotation is that anyone who expresses skepticism about vaccines or their safety is branded as an unhinged conspiracy theorist on par with the “9/11 truthers” or those who believe in the “Flat Earth” conspiracies.

    In the 21st century, all media companies are being forced to find new ways to innovate and monetize, now that the fact that their entire dictionary is available online for free has started to cut into book sales growth, we suppose MW has, in its own way, decided to innovate. Since nobody cares about facts and the correct usage of words, it will just tell you whether using them will make you racist or not.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/13/2021 – 22:25

  • US, Japan, France Hold First-Ever Joint Drills In Japanese Territory With Eye On China
    US, Japan, France Hold First-Ever Joint Drills In Japanese Territory With Eye On China

    Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

    The US, France, and Japan on Tuesday began joint ground and naval military exercises, marking the first time the three countries are holding drills together in Japanese territory.

    The week-long exercises come as the US is looking to boost military cooperation between its allies in the region to counter China. Tensions between Japan and China have been high due to a dispute over the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea.

    Getty Images

    The exercises started in the Nagasaki Prefecture at Camp Ainoura, where Japan’s Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade is headquartered. The Japanese amphibious unit was established in 2018 and was created to focus on outlying islands that Japan claims, like the Senkakus, or Diayous as they are known in China.

    Speaking to reporters, Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi said Tokyo was looking to expand its military ties with “like-minded” countries beyond the US. He described France as “a like-minded country that shares with Japan the vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific.”

    Australia will also join a part of the exercises that will be held in the East China Sea. The US, Japan, Australia, and India form the informal grouping known as the Quad, which is seen as a possible foundation for a NATO-style military alliance in Asia. France joined the Quad for military exercises when it led naval drills in the Bay of Bengal.

    Above: Opening ceremony for exercise Jeanne D’Arc 21, in Camp Ainoura, Sasebo, Japan, May 11, 2021. Source: US Marine Corps

    Strengthening military ties in Asia is a crucial part of the Biden administration’s China policy. In his first address to Congress, President Biden said he told Chinese President Xi Jinping that the US “will maintain a strong military presence in the Indo-Pacific just as we do with NATO in Europe.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/13/2021 – 22:05

  • "It's Not Great": Biden Stimulus Hits Turbulence As Pushback Grows Over Disincentivized Workers
    “It’s Not Great”: Biden Stimulus Hits Turbulence As Pushback Grows Over Disincentivized Workers

    The Biden administration’s latest push to further endebt the country with unnecessary stimulus has hit a ‘series of speed bumps‘ as The Hill puts it.

    Who would have guessed that showering unemployed people with money has disincentivized them from finding work, while the same overstimulus has led to inflation which we’re told is ‘transitory’ despite today’s y/y PPI print of 6.2% (vs. 5.8% expected) being the highest on record.

    Exhibit A:

    Exhibit B:

    Exhibit C:

    Meanwhile, eleven GOP-led states are all making moves to cancel unemployment benefits thanks to the worker shortage, and the US Chamber of Commerce urged Biden to end pandemic handouts – saying that “paying people to work” is killing the recovery.

    Any questions?

    Of course there are, because facts are now a partisan issue. More via The Hill:

    Economists are split over the issue, but it has served as an opening for Republicans to get a toehold in the unfolding battle for public opinion on Biden’s plans.

    “It’s not great,” one Democratic strategist acknowledged of the April jobs report. “And it will certainly slow down the process and any momentum Biden had in recent weeks without a doubt because Republicans will use this to show that some of these ideas being pushed aren’t sound.”

    The above has left moderate Democrats scrambling to reel in Biden’s $1.9 trillion pandemic relief bill. Some have suggested a smaller infrastructure package which would be much more narrowly focused in the hopes of gaining bipartisan support ahead of the 2022 midterm elections.

    Progressive Democrats, however – apparently not understanding that members of their own party such as Joe Manchin will block aggressive money grabs – say the party needs to ‘go big’ and stop worrying about all this bipartisan malarkey.

    “Let’s not pretend that Republicans are interested in any sort of compromise. Let’s go big, go bold, and make the ultra-rich and corporations finally pay their fair share so we can invest in working families,” said Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA) in a Wednesday tweet following a meeting between Biden and bipartisan leaders regarding his infrastructure plan.

    Inflation is of course the next problem for Biden – after CPI rose 0.8% in April and 4.2% y/y leading into April – exactly what we (and former Obama economic adviser Larry Summers, as it so happens) warned of while Biden was pushing the $1.9 trillion pandemic package.

    The White House is downplaying the whole thing – with press secretary Jen Psaki describing the inflation as “transitory.”

    “We knew just as the economy sort of shrunk and shut down that as it’s turning back on there would be some of these impacts,” she said, adding: “As we experience this massive transition, we continue to chart our path to recovery and we know that a number of the investments that we have proposed were long needed even before the last several months.”

    Altogether, the latest economic data is likely to ‘complicate’ stimulus negotiations to put it lightly.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/13/2021 – 21:45

  • Ohio Offers Weekly Million Dollar Lottery Prize For Vaccinated People 
    Ohio Offers Weekly Million Dollar Lottery Prize For Vaccinated People 

    The US is reporting around 118 million people are fully vaccinated this week. At about 2.2 million shots per day, that is impressive but not enough. Ohio, in particular, has concocted a plan to boost the number of people getting the COVID-19 vaccine by entering them in a weekly drawing for a million dollars, according to local news WLWT. 

    Gov. Mike DeWine uses the old “carrot and stick” trick, otherwise known as a motivational tactic that uses a reward (such as the chance to win a million dollars) to influence human behavior and push more people to receive the vaccine. 

    Five Ohioans will be drawn over five weeks, with the first drawing held on May 26. 

    “The pool of names for the drawing will be derived from the Ohio Secretary of State’s publicly available voter registration database,” said DeWine.”Further, we will make available a webpage for people to sign up for the drawings if they are not in a database we are using.”

    The Ohio Department of Health is sponsoring the special weekly drawing for vaccinated people. DeWine is using existing federal COVID relief funds for the winning prize. 

    The only qualifications Ohioans need are to be vaccinated and over the age of 18.

    “I know that some may say, ‘DeWine, you’re crazy! This million-dollar drawing idea of yours is a waste of money.’ But truly, the real waste at this point in the pandemic — when the vaccine is readily available to anyone who wants it — is a life lost to COVID-19,” the governor said.

    Using newly printed money as a motivational tactic to manipulate human behavior to get more residents to receive the vaccine is absolutely dystopic in every way. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/13/2021 – 21:25

  • Here Are The States Hardest Hit By The Gasoline Shortage
    Here Are The States Hardest Hit By The Gasoline Shortage

    Colonial Pipeline restarted operations Wednesday evening after a ransomware attack paralyzed the entire pipeline system that spans from Texas to New Jersey since last Friday. The company warned it could take days to normalize and that its pipeline would not be fully functional immediately. 

    Colonial’s pipeline carries about 100 million gallons per day of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, resumed operations around 1700 ET Wednesday. The company said it would take several days for deliveries to recover fully, and disruptions are still possible. 

    Four states and federal regulators relaxed fuel driver restrictions to increase deliveries of supplies to stem fuel shortages. Georgia suspended sales tax on gasoline until Saturday.

    Tracking firm GasBuddy (by the way, the number one app in the App Store) outlines the hardest hit states by the fuel shortage. 

    As of 2300 ET Wednesday (or an hour before midnight), GasBuddy provided a full list of the percent of gas stations with fuel outages per state:

    • AL 9%
    • DC 42% 
    • DE 5%
    • FL 29% 
    • GA 50% 
    • KY 3% 
    • LA 0% 
    • MD 31% 
    • MS 6% 
    • NC 74% 
    • NJ 1% 
    • SC 53% 
    • TN 27% 
    • TX 0% 
    • VA 56% 
    • WV 6%

    The Carolinas, Georgia, Virginia, Washington, D.C., Maryland, and Tennessee seem to be the hardest hit states by the gasoline shortage, with relief that may not come until the weekend. Even if Colonial’s pipeline system is flowing, there is a shortage of qualified tanker drivers that may prolong shortages or at least result in continued elevated prices. 

    All week, drivers across the Southeast US have waited in long lines to fill up, panic hoarded fuel, were given a taste of what it’s like to live in socialist Venezuela. 

    With the fuel shortage crisis entering the sixth day, seventeen states and Washington, DC, are still under emergency declarations to address fuel shortages. 

    The emergency declaration covers Alabama, Arkansas, D.C., Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia. 

    The shortage has pushed up the average US price of gasoline above the $3 mark for the first time in 6.5 years. 

    Just how much inflation is the consumer willing to take? Well, a breaking point could be nearing as consumer prices are exploding at the fastest pace since the early 1980s. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/13/2021 – 21:05

  • Stockman: Good Riddance, Liz Cheney!
    Stockman: Good Riddance, Liz Cheney!

    Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog,

    There have been few politicians in modern times who have done more to undermine personal liberty, capitalist prosperity, small government and especially world peace than the Cheney Clan. So upon Liz Cheney’s ouster from the #3 job in the US House GOP hierarchy, we say: Good riddance!

    And, no, we don’t begrudge her vote to impeach the Donald. The man is such an insufferable bully-boy and megalomaniac that upon his richly deserved exile from Washington her “yes” vote amounted to little more than a slightly offensive Bronx cheer. But what is profoundly offensive about the Cheneys is their central role in high-jacking the Republican Party in behalf of the demented worldview of a small priesthood of neocon intellectuals. The latter have turned the Warfare State of the now defunct cold war with the Soviet Union into a globe-spanning imperialist monster that has bled America dry fiscally and unleashed unjustified destruction and mayhem all around the planet in a manner that would have put even Imperial Rome to shame.

    Via CQ Roll Call/Getty Image

    The immorality, stupidity and monumental fiscal waste of the neocon Forever Wars is bad enough, but actually there is something even more lamentable. To wit, in today’s world, prosperity and liberty depend more than ever on fiscal rectitude and a conservative party that fights relentlessly and effectively to uphold it. Otherwise, the inherent self-aggrandizing proclivities of the state and the pork-barrel propensities of elected politicians will mushroom unchecked.

    Yet impairment of the fiscally conservative party was the basic and original reason why the Reagan Revolution failed. It was hard enough to get elected GOP legislators to walk the plank in behalf of canceling popular Washington handouts or curtailing the entitlement benefits of up to 45% of the public that gets checks directly or indirectly from Uncle Sam. And that was even with the tailwind of a charismatic communicator in the Oval Office.

    But when they were asked to face the slings and arrows of domestic interest groups and beneficiaries enraged by the Gipper’s budget cuts while simultaneously voting for massive defense increases even larger than the domestic cuts, well, they just didn’t.

    After the early 1981 round of modest spending cuts it was all over except the shouting because the incipient neocons of the day convinced Reagan that the economically and industrially collapsing Soviet Union was still striving for world domination and first strike nuclear capacity, when both propositions amounted to exaggerations, lies and self-serving propaganda of the military industrial complex.

    As a result, Reagan essentially threw in the towel on domestic spending retrenchment to save his huge and wholly unnecessary defense buildup. In turn, that meant that virtually no domestic programs of material import were abolished, thereby insuring that the programs modestly cut in 1981 could live for another day and an eventual recovery and make-whole, which is what actually happened.

    So when the defense budget kept rising and some of the domestic cuts just got pushed back to state and local governments, the total spending share of GDP barely missed a beat during the Reagan era. In fact, the government spending share of GDP ended higher than during any previous presidential term since WWII.

    Total Government Spending Share of GDP:

    • Eisenhower 1960: 27.5%;
    • Kennedy-Johnson 1968: 30.7%;
    • Nixon-Ford 1976: 32.9%;
    • Carter 1980: 32.7;
    • Reagan 1988: 33.7%

    Still, contrary to neocon revisionism, the Reagan defense buildup did not cause the sudden collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. It was the inherent impossibility of communist dictatorship and central planning that caused its economy to fail, the morale of its people to wither and its military to run out of resources.

    This not only put the lie to the Reagan defense buildup, but, more importantly, offered the Republican party a historic reprieve. It could now jettison its embrace of Big Government on the Pentagon side of the Potomac and its politically motivated acquiescence to the Welfare State to assure funding for the the Warfare State.

    But that was not to be and it’s Liz Cheney’s old man more than anyone else who is responsible. By becoming a stalwart war-hawk, he helped lose the strategic moment in history in 1991 when the shell of the Soviet Union formerly disappeared from the face of the earth, bringing to a close the 75-Years War that incepted with the “guns of August” in 1914.

    At that point, America needed a Secretary of Defense who could see that the waters of war had parted, and that the Warfare State which had barnacled American governance for most of the years since the Great War could now be dismantled. Destiny had, in fact, bestowed upon Washington a golden opportunity to lead the world to disarmament and a restoration of the status quo ante of 1913—a world at peace and enjoying a flowering of global commerce, prosperity and freedom like never before.

    What America got, instead, was a brash advocate of Washington hegemony in a now so-called “unipolar” world and an arrogant champion of applying military power or the threat of it against weak states like Iraq, Iran and North Korea which did not bend to Washington’s edicts, even if they presented no national security threat to the American homeland (they clearly didn’t).

    Indeed, Dick Cheney emerged during those years as the foremost advocate of the American Imperium, and not unsurprisingly so. We had known him as a colleague in the US House as a moderate conservative on the issues, but also as a man in a hurry to accumulate power. That he did by rising to the rank of House GOP Conference Chairman after 1985, the same position that Liz Cheney holds today.

    So when Bush the Elder called upon him to become defense secretary in 1989, Cheney was by then a 50-year old who had spent his entire career suckling from the public teat. That started in the Wisconsin statehouse in 1966 and thereafter he was quickly off to Washington as a Congressional intern in 1969. There he soon hitched his star to Don Rumsfeld in the Nixon White House, eventually working his way up the slippery slope to Chief of Staff to President Ford. And that was followed by election to Congress from Wyoming in 1978 and embrace of the neocon national security ideology during his years in the US House in the 1980s.

    The man’s sins as Secretary of Defense were history changing. He fully supported Bush the Elder’s rash drawing of a line in the sand during Saddam’s petty quarrel with the Emir of Kuwait over OPEC quotas; the latter’s alleged theft of oil from Iraq via directional drilling along their artificial border that had been affixed by the Arab League as recently as 1960; and the war debts to Kuwait that had stemmed from Saddam’s Gulf States supported invasion of Iran during the 1980s.

    The fact is, America had no dog in that hunt and should have never intervened military, but essentially did so because it could for the first time since WW II owing to the Soviet Union’s disappearance.

    What added insult to injury, however, was Dick Cheney’s personal diplomacy in convincing Saudi Arabia to permit several hundred thousand American troops to be deployed on the sacred lands of the two holy places, the catalyst which turned America’s anti-Soviet mercenary army in Afghanistan, Osama bin-Laden and his al-Qaeda jihadists, into implacable enemies. The war on terrorism which inexorably followed thereupon was essentially the spawn of Cheney’s foolish brinkmanship in a middle eastern world he did not remotely understand and which presented no threat to the safety and security of America anyway.

    Likewise, it was Cheney and his neocon pals in the administration of Bush the Elder who launched the unwarranted demonization of Iran, which became another bloody thread in the neocon hegemony. The phony “leading state sponsor of terrorism” charge, in fact, has justified Washington’s destructive meddling in the region ever since.

    Ironically, after Washington helped Saddam Hussein make war on the Iranians during the 1980s, Cheney ultimately put him to the gallows during the regency of Bush the Younger, paving the way for his fortunately aborted plan to take out Iran’s embryonic uranium enrichment facilities with nuclear bombs. The single most important development attendant upon the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, of course, was the opportunity for NATO to declare victory, fold its tent and dissolve.

    Alas, that was not to be, either, because it was Dick Cheney and his neocon henchman who got the NATO allies into the first Gulf War and conceived of the perversely misguided strategy of bringing the former eastern European satellites of the Soviet Union into NATO. So doing, they laid the foundation for today’s utterly pointless and dangerous confrontation with Russia owing to NATO’s hostile presence on its very doorstep.

    Needless to say, the Cheneys are a case of the rotten apple falling directly and completely from the poisoned tree. To our knowledge, Liz Cheney has never strayed an inch from the neocon line on any of the Forever Wars, Washington’s foolishly provocative pressure on Russia or the current insane $800 billion national security budget.

    Undoubtedly, the Donald’s rejection of the neocon imperium, poorly and inconsistently executed as it was, is what turned the Cheneys into enemies. And for that, at least, he deserves some credit. Moreover, if his misguided followers in the ranks of House Republicans can now get rid of the Cheney Clan, he deserves even more.

    At least that would be a start toward the restoration of a conservative party free from the toxic influence of Washington’s neocon cabal, and therefore capable of re-engaging with its real mission in American democracy—that of bringing Leviathan to heel on both sides of the Potomac.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/13/2021 – 20:45

  • Chamath Palihapitiya Is 'Doing Just Fine' As SPAC Implosion Leaves Retail Traders Holding The Bag
    Chamath Palihapitiya Is ‘Doing Just Fine’ As SPAC Implosion Leaves Retail Traders Holding The Bag

    Not that long ago, Bloomberg lauded Chamath Palihapitiya as the “King of SPACs” and the trendiest investor in America. Now, the financial news organization’s tone has changed, portraying him more like the pied piper who led an army of retail traders to their doom. Take for example Arnav Naik, a teenaged Michigan residents who parlayed $5K into $35K day trading within 6 months during the pandemic.

    After seeing Palihapitiya’s tweets about Clover, he decided to take that sum and plunk it down on Clover call options.

    While longtime money managers wince at these antics, Palihapitiya’s fan base has been eating it all up. Arnav Naik, a 17-year-old from Troy, Mich., says he got into SPACs after his high school went remote and his swim season was canceled. He started reading the Reddit day-trading forum WallStreetBets and trading stock options, parlaying about $5,000 in savings into $35,000 within six months by betting on an electric-truck SPAC and GameStop.

    After seeing Palihapitiya tweet about Clover, Naik doubled down. In January he put almost all his money into Clover call options—an all-or-nothing bet that the shares would go up. If they climbed to, say, $35 he could turn his savings into $130,000. “When you slap a name like ‘Chamath’ on there, it has a lot of potential to rocket up, like how Tesla did with Elon,” he says. “He’s going to join the WallStreetBets meme god pantheon.”

    Clover, like many other SPAC stocks, has tumbled this year as investors have come to doubt whether its business model is actually viable. Chamath’s Social Capital fund, has, of course, posted enviable returns over the past decade, investing in bitcoin, Tesla, Slack and others. Coming from humble origins (his Sri Lankan parents arrived in Ottawa as refugees), Palihapitiya made his way to work in venture capital, before convincing a 23-year-old Mark Zuckerberg to appoint him head of growth at Facebook.

    Despite these successes, Chamath has, since at least 2007, been honing a pitch where he casts himself as the consummate insider who can’t wait to break into the capitalist rulers club and upset the existing order. In that time, he has slammed everyone from VCs to consultants – basically everybody he works with.

    His targets over the years include Facebook Inc.: “Ripping apart the social fabric of how society works.” Venture capitalists: “A bunch of soulless cowards” who pump money into “useless, idiotic companies.” Charitable giving: It’s done for “branding” and “validation.” Politicians: “They’re all f—ing puppets.” The startup economy: “An enormous multivariate kind of Ponzi scheme.” The traditional IPO process: “Negative value.” Hedge funds: “Those suck.” Big banks: “No smart person goes and works at Goldman.” Government: “Just a large validation of one’s personal ego.” Consultants: “Useless.”

    One early boss told Bloomberg that Palihapitiya had more “chutzpah” than tech know-how.

    He went into banking after studying electrical engineering at the University of Waterloo, but quit when he received no bonus, he said on a podcast in December. He dreamed of making the Forbes billionaires list, and at his first tech job, at AOL, according to Josh Felser, who hired him, he’d say he expected to hit that number before he turned 30. “He knew little about tech, yet he had chutzpah and was an in-your-face negotiator, which we needed,” Felser says. He adds that Palihapitiya regularly stole his parking spot.

    This chutzpah helped him sell SPACs like Virgin Galactic and Clover, one of the sector’s biggest disasters, which has drawn short sellers including Hindenburg Research, which originally disclosed a federal investigation into the company. As BBG points out, while retail investors like the teenage Naik will likely lose everything, Chamath and the big hedge funds that invested early will walk away with profits.

    Naik, Palihapitiya’s teenage fan, has lost almost all his money and won’t get it back unless Clover’s stock rebounds. But he doesn’t blame Palihapitiya. “He’s doing the best he can,” Naik says. “It’ll keep growing. I really think I’ll get a huge return.” Regardless of the outcome, he plans to become an investment banker.

    Unlike Naik, the hedge funds that invested in the SPAC that merged with Clover made money—filings show most sold and pocketed a quick gain around the time the deal was announced. Palihapitiya and his partners did even better. Because they gave themselves 20.7 million shares for putting the deal together, their $171 million investment has almost doubled to $320 million. A week after the Hindenburg report, Palihapitiya said he controlled a $10 billion to $15 billion fortune, triple what he’d told another interviewer 10 months earlier, and compared himself to Warren Buffett.

    With his fortune swelling to as much as $15 billion even as an index of SPACs has fallen 17% from the highs earlier in the year, Palihapitiya is already reportedly chasing his next deal with Equinox, the fancy gym chain.

    And if anybody knows the gym business, it’s Chamath.

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    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/13/2021 – 20:25

  • Mall Traffic Hits Post-Pandemic High as Retail Recovery Continues
    Mall Traffic Hits Post-Pandemic High as Retail Recovery Continues

    Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

    American shoppers continued to flock to the nation’s malls in greater numbers in April, with the foot traffic gap nearly halving in just two months, reinforcing the view of a retail recovery gaining traction.

    Foot traffic at a sample of 50 malls in April showed that, compared to the pre-pandemic April 2019 level, it was down 18.7 percent, a marked improvement from recent months, according to a report provided to The Epoch Times by mobile-device location data analytics firm Placer.ai.

    “In this metric, there was a strong forward momentum with the visit gap shrinking from 23.7 percent down in March to just 18.7 percent down in April,” the company said in the report.

    “This is the strongest mark the index has seen since the pandemic began, and another sign that the retail recovery is already in progress,” the report noted, adding that the data “further deepens the optimism around top tier malls and their ability to anchor key retail expansions moving forward.”

    Placer’s report also featured a striking statistic, namely that mall foot traffic surged by a staggering 3991.7 percent in April compared to April 2020, although the report noted that “this number is essentially meaningless as the comparison is to a fully shut down month the year prior.” An earlier mall traffic comparison between March 2021 and March 2020 showed a sharp 86 percent rise, although with much the same caveat that the baseline was low due to pandemic-related closures in March last year.

    The fate of the retail recovery was clouded by earlier economic data showing U.S. consumer spending falling by the most in 10 months in February as a cold snap gripped many parts of the country and the boost from a second round of stimulus checks faded. But the most recent release from the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) dispelled much of that gloom, showing personal consumption expenditures in March saw a sharp 4.2 percent boost. Consumption is a key driver of the U.S. economy, accounting for around two-thirds of gross domestic product.

    The consumer spending data came on the heels of a Moody’s report that upgraded its outlook for the U.S. retail and apparel sector from stable to positive.

    “As pandemic pressures ease and the cadence of vaccinations accelerates, we expect the retail sector to experience broad-based improvement. Operating profit will grow a robust 10-12 percent in 2021, and hard-hit sectors such as apparel, department stores, and off-price will see the most pronounced operating profit growth over the next 12 to 18 months,” said Mickey Chadha, Moody’s vice president and senior credit officer, in a statement.

    U.S. economic growth accelerated sharply at a 6.4 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, fueled by the rush of consumer spending, according to a separate BEA release on U.S. gross domestic product.

    But the accelerating growth has revived concerns about the economy overheating and putting upward pressure on prices.

    A Labor Department report Wednesday showed that inflation has soared above economists’ predictions and by the most in over a decade, as fiscal stimulus and booming demand pushed against supply constraints.

    The year-over-year consumer price index (CPI), a measure of inflation, jumped by 4.2 percent in April after rising 2.6 percent in March. This is the largest 12-month increase since September 2008, when the index rose by 4.9 percent.

    On a monthly basis, the CPI inflation measure jumped 0.8 percent in April after rising 0.6 percent in March, while the so-called core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, soared by 0.9 percent. The surge in the core CPI is the largest monthly increase since April 1982.

    The spike in inflation is likely to stoke fears of an interest rate hike by the Fed, although Federal Reserve officials have played down the concerns by predicting that price rises would be “transitory.”

    Fed officials have also repeatedly said they will not raise rates or reduce the monthly bond-buying program until inflation averages around two percent for a longer period of time.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/13/2021 – 20:05

  • The QE Endgame: A Big Problem Is Emerging For The Fed
    The QE Endgame: A Big Problem Is Emerging For The Fed

    For the second time in three weeks, the US Treasury sold $40BN in 4-week bills at a price of 100.000% representing a rate of 0.00%.

    To be sure, Bills had printed at 0.000% at auction previously, but that was largely during the reserve glut days of 2015.

    So why now? The same reason usage of the Fed’s Reverse Repo facility has soared in recent weeks from zero to over $100 billion at the end of April, hitting a whopping $235 billion today…

    …as investors choose to directly transact with the Fed – where only positive rates are allowed – rather than the open market where collateral rates have frequently been negative in recent weeks as Curvature’s Scott Skyrm explained in this note from April 26:

    Overnight rates are low. Too low by all normal standards. The fed funds rate is well below the mid-point of the fed funds target range and the Repo GC rate is at zero; often trading negative. Zero percent interest rates are forcing billions of dollars of cash into the Fed’s RRP facility.

    While this This is a delightful case of deja vu irony – the Fed is taking Treasurys out of the market through QE purchases and putting them right back in via the RRP – it is also distorting the Repo market, and although the Fed can fix this aberration by hiking the IOER or RRP rates, it has so far refused to do so. 

    But the ongoing surge in reverse repo usage masks a far bigger problem in store for the Fed, and it’s why Curvature’s Skyrm writes that “now is a pretty good time to start talking about the size of the SOMA portfolio, even if some people don’t want to talk about it.”

    Why is the surge in reverse repo linked to tapering? Skyrm explains, by posting a rhetorical question:

    “What are the next steps for tapering purchases and what will the SOMA portfolio look like when we’re done? What will the market look like?”

    The repo strategist then reminds us that even when the Fed starts tapering, the Fed balance sheet will continue to grow indefinitely, if at a slower pace, flooding the system with the same reserves that are now desperate to buy Bills at 0.000% or be parked at the Fed (for 0.000%).

    Talk of tapering feels like when you’re getting ready for a dinner out. You’re ready and it’s time to go. You check on your spouse and they haven’t even started getting ready yet! As of last week, the SOMA portfolio stood at $7.185 trillion and the Fed continues purchases at $120 billion a month. If and when tapering starts, the purchases won’t go from $120 billion to zero in one announcement. The purchases will gradually slow – going from $120 billion, to maybe $100 billion, to maybe $80 billion, to $50 billion, to $20 billion.

    Let’s look at some  rough estimates. Assuming the Fed tapers at this schedule at each FOMC meeting beginning in June, that would mean the Fed adds about another $350 billion and ends QE in November. That’s the most aggressive tapering schedule. Let’s assume the Fed doesn’t begin tapering until the end of the year. That means, roughly, another $900 billion will be added to the SOMA portfolio.

    This is a problem, and Skyrm explains why: Even today there’s barely enough collateral in the Repo market right now to cover all of the cash being invested. If volume at the RRP shot up to $235 billion today, what’s going to happen when there’s $350 billion fewer securities in the market at the end of the year?

    How about if it’s $900 billion?

    In short, we already have a collateral shortage the likes of which are on par with what we experienced in 2015-2016. What happens in the next 18 months when we get an additional $1 trillion in reserves sloshing around? 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/13/2021 – 19:45

  • Antifa Protester: "I Can't Wait Until Black People Lynch White People"
    Antifa Protester: “I Can’t Wait Until Black People Lynch White People”

    Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

    An Antifa protester at a demonstration near Seattle was filmed proudly proclaiming, “I can’t wait until black people lynch white people.”

    Yes, really.

    The chant was heard during a far-left black bloc protest against a Billy Graham association event.

    At first a woman is heard stating, “I can’t wait until black people hang you, I can’t wait.”

    When she is asked to repeat the statement, she proudly clarifies, “I can’t wait until black people lynch white people.”

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    When asked if anyone else in the group agrees with the statement, a man puts his hand up and says “I do, I do!”

    According to journalist Andy Ngo, the leftists also chanted “death to America!” while burning U.S. flags.

    As we highlighted last month, a group of Black Lives Matter protesters in Minneapolis were caught on camera telling a white liberal ally, “You’re white! You don’t belong!” before demanding that he leave the area.

    Following the conviction of Derek Chauvin, BLM mobs also descended on diners in New York while telling white restaurant owners to “get the f**k out” of the city.”

    The ‘George Floyd Autonomous Zone’ in Minneapolis also last month issued a list of ‘rules for white people’ that they have to abide by in order to enter the area.

    So much for the tolerant left!

    *  *  *

    Brand new merch now available! Get it at https://www.pjwshop.com/

    *  *  *

    In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. I need you to sign up for my free newsletter here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown. Also, I urgently need your financial support here.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/13/2021 – 19:25

  • Dogecoin Soars After Musk Tweets "Working With Doge Developers To Improve System Efficiency"
    Dogecoin Soars After Musk Tweets “Working With Doge Developers To Improve System Efficiency”

    Just when you thought things couldn’t get any more surreal after the past 24 hours, moments ago Elon Musk, who last night rejected bitcoin because its mining is “bad for the environment” as it consumes a lot of electricity (just wait until Elon discovers how all those rare earth metals that are in every electric car are mined, or what those electric cars run on), moments ago Musk poked the hornets nest again, and shortly after tweeting that ‘it’s high time there was a carbon tax’…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    … because billionaires are so fond of giving advise on how to tax others, and an hour after saying that he “strongly believe in crypto, but it can’t drive a massive increase in fossil fuel use, especially coal”, perhaps unaware that the biggest end-market for his cars also happens to be the world’s biggest polluter…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    … Musk decided to go back to the crime scene and sparked a sharp rally in the literal joke of a cryptocurrency, Dogecoin, saying that hs is “working with Doge devs to improve system transaction efficiency. Potentially promising.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The tweet sent Dogecoin sharply higher as yet another round of hapless Tesla fanatics rushed in, making Musk – whose behavior has gotten dangerously erratic in recent weeks –  instantly richer by a few more billion.

    Alas, there was nobody to tell said fanatics that because Dogecoin is by definition- a joke – there are no developers because unlike Ethereum, it is not meant to be a platform. It’s like programming Teslas in Fortran… or better yet, Basic.

    Meanwhile, the one crypto that is – ether – tumbled on the news, sliding over $100 in minutes because some were disappointed that Musk did not name Ethereum his preferred token of choice. Here’s why he didn’t – he would have to actually have some idea what he is doing or talking about. And if it took him a $1.5 billion Bitcoin purchase to realize that bitcoin mining uses electricity, for the sake of all those long ETH, be grateful this grotesque cartoon character refuses to touch it.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/13/2021 – 19:07

  • Biden Plans Expansion Of Feds' Army Of Snitches In "Dollars For Collars" Program
    Biden Plans Expansion Of Feds’ Army Of Snitches In “Dollars For Collars” Program

    Authored by James Bovard via TheAmericanConservative.com,

    How the administration plans on expanding its already massive surveillance apparatus…

    The Biden administration may soon recruit an army of private snoops to conduct surveillance that would be illegal if done by federal agents. As part of its war on extremism, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) may exploit a “legal work-around” to spy on and potentially entrap Americans who are “perpetuating the ‘narratives’ of concern,” CNN reported last week. But federal informant programs routinely degenerate into “dollars for collars” schemes that reward scoundrels for fabricating crimes that destroy the lives of innocent Americans. The DHS plan would “allow the department to circumvent [constitutional and legal] limits” on surveillance of private citizens and groups. Federal agencies are prohibited from targeting individuals solely for First Amendment-protected speech and activities. But federal hirelings would be under no such restraint. Private informants could create false identities that would be problematic if done by federal agents.

    DHS will be ramping up a war against an enemy which the feds have never clearly or competently defined. According to a March report by Biden’s office of the Director of National Intelligence, “domestic violent extremists” include individuals who “take overt steps to violently resist or facilitate the overthrow of the U.S. government in support of their belief that the U.S. government is purposely exceeding its Constitutional authority.” Perhaps like setting up a private informant scheme to evade constitutional restrictions on warrantless surveillance?

    One DHS official bewailed to CNN:

    “Domestic violent extremists are really adaptive and innovative. We see them not only moving to encrypted platforms, but obviously couching their language so they don’t trigger any kind of red flag on any platforms.”

    DHS officials have apparently decided that certain groups of people are guilty regardless of what they say (“couching their language”). The targets are likely to be simply people with a bad attitude towards Washington. That will include gun owners who distrust politicians who vow to seize guns.

    The latest fuzzball standards (“narratives of concern”?) fit the post-9/11 pattern of wildly expansive threat definitions. Shortly after its creation in 2002, DHS warned local law enforcement agencies to keep an eye on anyone who “expressed dislike of attitudes and decisions of the U.S. government” as potential terrorists. DHS-funded Fusion Centers have attached the  “extremist” tag to gun-rights activists, anti-immigration zealots, and individuals and groups “rejecting federal authority in favor of state or local authority”—even though many of the Founding Fathers shared the same creed. The Pentagon taught soldiers and bureaucrats that people who attend public protests are guilty of  “low-level terrorism.” An Air Force report accused women who wear hijabs of “passive terrorism.” Endless enemies lists come in handy at congressional appropriations hearings.

    Federal officials insist that those who have nothing to hide have nothing to fear. FBI chief Christopher Wray perennially proclaims that the FBI never investigates Americans based solely on their ideas. But, as the Intercept reported in 2019, “Who the Justice Department decides to prosecute as a domestic terrorist has little to do with the harm they’ve inflicted or the threat they pose to human life.” But that claim is belied by the FBI’s beloved “informant loophole.” As Trevor Aaronson explained, “FBI agents must obtain supervisory approval to enter a group or gathering using an undercover agent, and to obtain that approval, the FBI must have a ‘predicate,’ or a factual basis to suspect criminal activity. But neither supervisory approval nor a predicate is required if the work is done by an informant, creating a loophole that allows the FBI to investigate Americans for virtually any reason.”

    Any new informants hired by the Biden administration will operate under the same perverse incentives that have long subverted due process. Informants tend to be rewarded based on how much assets they help government seize or how many people they help prosecutors condemn. As a 2019 report by the American Bar Association noted, “The government pays cash for incriminating information and testimony. This is troubling because the financial incentive to make cases against others may be much greater than the personal integrity of the informants.” A report by the Justice Department Office of Inspector General slammed the Drug Enforcement Agency for failing to “document the reliability of informants” who helped the DEA to confiscate billions of dollars of private property. The DEA paid informants $237 million between 2010 and 2015, including $25 million shoveled out to only nine informants. DEA’s best paid informant, Andrew Chambers, Jr., was found to have given “false testimony under oath in at least 16 criminal prosecutions nationwide before he was exposed in the late 1990s,” USA Today reported in 2013. Attorney General Janet Reno banned the DEA from using him as an informant but in 2008, DEA re-hired Chambers and used him for at least the following five years.

    Informants have become far more perilous to freedom and decency since the 1970s thanks to the Supreme Court effectively defining entrapment out of existence. Almost anything an informant or undercover government agent does to induce someone to violate the law is considered fair play. Craig Monteilh, an informant who was sent into mosques in southern California, was given permission by his FBI handlers to sleep with Muslim women he targeted and to secretly tape record their pillow talk. Other FBI informants browbeat their targets into discussing bombing government buildings, providing sufficient verbal rope to hang them. The vast majority of people charged with international terrorism offenses in the decade after 9/11 were not bona fide threats but were induced by the FBI or informants to behave in ways that prompted their arrest, according to Trevor Aaronson’s The Terror Factory: Inside the FBI’s Manufactured War on Terrorism.

    One purpose of relying on private informants is to assure that there are no federal fingerprints when people are coaxed or shoved into breaking the law. The FBI admits that it formally entitles its army of informants to commit more than 5,000 crimes a year; there is no estimate of how many crimes are committed directly by FBI agents, who have been formally taught that “the FBI has the ability to bend or suspend the law to impinge on the freedom of others.” Thanks to the FBI’s Iron Curtain of Secrecy, we have no idea what sort of atrocities its informants may now be committing. During George W. Bush’s reign, the White House formally invoked executive privilege to block disclosure of the FBI’s sweetheart deals for Whitey Bulger, a notorious FBI informant and Irish crime boss linked to 20 murders. The FBI knew of Bulger’s role in killings but lied in court to protect him, even providing false testimony to send innocent men to prison for life to safeguard Bulger. That debacle was summarized in a 2004 congressional report titled, “Everything Secret Degenerates: The FBI’s Use of Murderers as Informants.” In 2011, a federal judge aptly labeled the FBI’s behavior in the case as “uncontrolled official wickedness.”

    In 2016, Omar Mateen carried out the biggest terrorist attack since 9/11, killing 49 people at the Orlando Pulse Nightclub attack. Prior to his attack, Mateen boasted of his connections to terrorists and threatened to have Al Qaeda kill a co-worker’s family; his mosque warned authorities that he was a threat to public safety. But the FBI swayed the local sheriff’s department to drop its investigation of Mateen because a “confidential informant” assured FBI agents that Mateen was not a terrorist and would not “go postal or anything like that.” The federal case against the killer’s widow collapsed in 2018 after jurors belatedly learned that the killer’s father, an Afghan immigrant, had been an FBI informant since 2005 and may have used his influence to assure that his son was not arrested prior to his killing spree.

    The FBI has long relied on informants to choreograph political violence. In the 1960s, FBI informants “set up a Klan organization intended to attract membership away from the United Klans of America,” according to a 1976 Senate report. One FBI informant with the Klan, along with other Klansmen, had “beaten people severely, had boarded buses and kicked [Freedom Riders] off” and beat restaurant customers “with blackjacks, chains, pistols.” In 2006, a paid FBI informant organized and led a neo-Nazi march in a black neighborhood in Orlando, Florida. In 2017, an FBI informant masterminded a Klan rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, sharply increasing the tension and fear prior to the much larger and notorious Charlottesville Unite the Right rally the following month. There have not yet been any disclosures regarding what role, if any, that federal informants played in the January 6 clash at the Capitol.

    DHS wants to enlist more private informants at the same time federal undercover operations are already out of control. At least 40 federal agencies are now conducting undercover operations involving thousands of agents. An undercover DEA agent “created a fake Facebook page from the photos of a young woman in Watertown, N.Y. — without her knowledge — to lure drug suspects,” the New York Times reported.  IRS agents are officially permitted to “pose as an attorney, physician, clergyman or member of the news media.” The Times noted in 2014 that  “the military and its investigative agencies have almost as many undercover agents working inside the United States as does the F.B.I.,” often serving on joint federal task forces of the type that will likely be expanded for the Biden extremist crackdown. A sting operation by the Alcohol Tobacco and Firearms agency swayed mentally handicapped individuals to get tattooed to help advertise its bogus gun store, violating federal laws protecting the disabled. Oversight is often a mirage: an ATF committee created to oversee undercover operations didn’t bother meeting for more than half a decade. The Times noted that “even Justice Department officials say they are uncertain how many agents work undercover.”

    The Biden administration is considering unleashing a new surveillance program at a time when Americans have no idea how many federal agencies are already spying on them. Yahoo News disclosed last month that the Postal Inspection Service is running iCOP —the Internet Covert Operations Program—to sweep social media and other websites searching for any “inflammatory” postings on topics including protests against COVID lockdowns. Postal inspectors got access to private messages on Parler and Telegram, presumably with no search warrant. The iCOP program turns over its discoveries to other federal agencies. Rachel Levinson-Waldman of the Brennan Center for Justice commented that iCop “seems a little bizarre” since the surveillance included “monitoring of social media that’s unrelated to use of the postal system.” Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) denounced the program for violating the Constitution and asked: “The USPS has been losing money for many years… so where do they find money to run this surveillance program?” Unfortunately, federal agencies that trample the law and the Constitution in their surveillance efforts are usually punished with budget increases.

    Perhaps setting up a new informant scheme to work around the Constitution is not the best response to extremists who fear government is lawless. Unfortunately, Americans are unlikely to hear about crimes committed by Biden’s new snoops until long after the damage is done, if ever.

    *  *  *

    James Bovard is the author of Lost Rights, Attention Deficit Democracy, and Public Policy Hooligan. He is also a USA Today columnist. Follow him on Twitter @JimBovard.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/13/2021 – 18:50

Digest powered by RSS Digest

May 13

Today’s News 13th May 2021

  • France Aims To Shut British Firms Out Of EU Financial System As Fisheries Dispute Drags On
    France Aims To Shut British Firms Out Of EU Financial System As Fisheries Dispute Drags On

    As the spat between the UK and France over access to British fishing waters – a contentious issue that nearly scuppered the post-Brexit trade deal – worsens, France has apparently decided to go for the jugular.

    Last week, French officials threatened to cut off electricity to the UK-dominated island of Jersey while a “protest” staged by French fishermen nearly prompted a confrontation between British and French naval ships. Now, France is threatening to do everything in its power to scupper a EU deal that would broaden access to European markets for British financial firms.

    In keeping with threats made by a French diplomat last week, Bloomberg reports that French diplomats are working to stall an agreement that would help restore some of the access British financial firms once enjoyed to European markets, which was lost when Brexit officially came into effect following the end of the transition and the start of 2021.

    Though it wouldn’t have much practical effect in the near term, reaching a Memorandum of Understanding between the UK and the EU about plans to re-integrate their financial systems is seen by the UK as a critical first step to restoring the level of access they once enjoyed. Negotiations in Brussels later this month will bring EU leaders together to further the discuss a potential deal on market access. To be sure, the EU has said that it’s in no rush to restore the reciprocity rules that would restore trading rights for British financial firms.

    Here’s more from BBG:

    At the end of March, Britain and the EU had agreed on a forum regarding cross-border financial market access. While granting so-called equivalences that would allow U.K. financial firms to do business in Europe remains a separate and unilateral process, the MoU would help speed up the process.

    Since Brexit took effect at the beginning of 2021, London-based financial firms have been largely unable to operate in the bloc, forcing banks like JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to move billions of dollars in assets and thousands of staff to the continent.

    All 27 EU states must sign off on an MoU before it can be implemented. BBG says talks could begin in the coming days. But if the British are still refusing to hand out fishing licenses for the waters around the island of Jersey by then, well, they can expect the French to do everything within their power to stall talks on the MoU.

    As a reminder, here’s how close British and French Navy vessels came to a confrontation earlier this month (courtesy of Bloomberg).

    France has accused the British government of reneging on some of its promises from the Brexit deal by refusing to hand out licenses for French fishermen in certain British-controlled fishing waters, primarily those off the island of Jersey, which lies close to the French coast.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/13/2021 – 02:45

  • Escobar: Pictures Of A Ukrainian Dream
    Escobar: Pictures Of A Ukrainian Dream

    Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Saker blog,

    Picture yourself about to meet a girl with kaleidoscope eyes… No. Sorry. Actually picture merry lines of code in the R programming language – wallowing in a happy valley of game theory models which would not preclude Goth or New Romantic Walkyrie dancin’ to the 12-inch version of Bauhaus’s Bela Lugosi is Dead.

    Imagine this reverie coming about because of a “pin!” in your inbox. After all you have just been presented with an astonishing piece of intel. You scramble to the exit, actually the entrance of the Magic Theater, where you ask, Keats-style, Was it a dream? Do I wake or sleep?

    So what was the dream about? Oh, something so prosaic, so down to the nitty gritty geopolitics: what really happened during the visit of US Secretary of State Tony Blinken to Ukraine.

     

    The great Andrei Martyanov has remarked that Blinken “told Kiev behind the scenes to ‘dial it down’, amidst the fluffy tropes about US concern for Ukraine’s ‘sovereignty’ and ‘security’”.

    Well, looks like there was way more than fluffy tropes.

    Leaked info on the closed-door meeting between Blinken and Comedian-in-Charge Zelensky is no less than incandescent.

    Blinken seemed to have read a no-holds-barred riot act.

    Here are the guidelines.

    • All Ukrainian state corporations must be controlled by the proverbial “foreign interests”. So board majorities must be either foreign or 5th columnists. The entire anti-corruption vertical drive must also be foreign-controlled. Same for the judicial system.

    • Andriy Kobolyev – an American asset – must be reinstated as head of Naftogaz. Zelensky moved mountains to get rid of Kobolyev.

    • Blinken demanded a massive push against every Ukrainian oligarch, so that huge chunks of Ukrainian economy are transferred to – who else – foreigners. Same for land privatization.

    • Somewhat hilariously, Blinken warned that Russian troops might invade Ukraine. In this case, Zelensky can count only on huge political assistance, not military. So Zelensky in fact was ordered to stop asking to join NATO and cease provoking Russia, as President Putin, who already drew red lines, could make a “drastic decision”.

    • Blinken demanded that American assets should be untouchable by Ukrainian law, and named honored figures of civil society. Maidan cookie distributor Victoria “F**k the EU” Nuland, also in the room, drew up a list of The Untouchables, and Blinken met with them separately.

    • Finally, the giant ghost hanging over the whole trip to Kiev had to make itself known. In practice, Zelensky was invited to turn in everyone in Ukraine who helped bring information about Hunter Biden to the media via Rudolph Giuliani.

    According to the source who had access to the leak, Zelensky was left beyond speechless. That’s not exactly what he was expecting. Especially when it comes to transferring valuable assets controlled by Ukrainian oligarchs to “foreign interests”. Someone will inevitably whack him.

    No one is touching this leak – as if it was radioactive poison. No one will confirm it. Its plausibility though cannot be denied.

    Contradicting these powerful, left unnamed “foreign interests” is simply out of the question. They now seem to be guided by a “take the money and run” logic, as in taking over the looting of Ukraine lock, stock and barrel before the whole thing – actually a failed state – blows up.

    Pity those oligarchs who thought they were going to loot the land through privatization. Instead the money is on a one way out journey. Follow the money. Follow the dream.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/13/2021 – 02:00

  • America Is Playing With Fire…
    America Is Playing With Fire…

    Authored by Evelyn Markus via The Gatestone Institute,

    On May 8, 1945, men and women rushed to the streets of New York, London and Moscow to hug, kiss and dance. Germany had just surrendered. The war against Nazi Germany was over. The killing had stopped. A great evil had ended. Yet many had mixed feelings of joy and grief. More than 100,000 US soldiers had given their lives and almost another 450,000 had been wounded. In all, 15 to 20 million Europeans had been killed. May 8 is still celebrated in our times as Victory in Europe Day, or V-E Day.

    In 1930, my father moved as a young boy from Holland to Germany with his parents and brothers. My grandfather hoped to earn some money there during the Great Depression. He said that nobody had foreseen what would develop in the next fifteen years. Until 1930, there were only a few hundred Nazi Stormtroopers (SA), or “Brownshirts,” in German streets intimidating voters, opponents and Jews. Many of the stormtroopers wanted socialism. In the following years, their number escalated quickly to thousands, and even hundreds of thousands. In 1933, when Hitler took power, there were two-to-three million SA Stormtroopers in Germany. It went amazingly fast, my grandfather always said.

    The Nazis were obsessed with race. They suppressed dissent, controlled the dissemination of news and controlled culture. In 1933, the German Student Union started to burn books in an effort to align German arts and culture with Nazi ideas. Books of authors such as Hemingway, Helen Keller and Jack London were considered dangerous and had to be canceled. The students did not see themselves as suppressing culture; they saw themselves as advancing a just culture.

    The intimidations by the Brownshirts peaked on Kristallnacht (“The Night of Broken Glass”). It was a night of looting, arson and public humiliation — solely on the basis of ethnicity. More than 90 Jews were murdered. Then the Blackshirts (SS entities) ‘finished it off’. That night, they brought tens of thousands of Jews to concentration camps.

    Nazi officials disguised the organized nature of the pogrom. They described the actions as spontaneous and justifiable responses of the German population to the assassination by a Jew of a German diplomatic official, Ernst vom Rath, in Paris.

    The government confiscated all insurance payouts to Jews whose businesses and homes had been looted or destroyed during Kristallnacht and blamed the Jews for the destruction. Soon, more Jewish property was confiscated and Jews got canceled from employment in the public sector and from most professions.

    In an interview with the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum, the Iranian professor and author Azar Nafisi, whose book Reading Lolita in Tehran was canceled in Iran, describes what took place:

    “The first thing every totalitarian regime does, along with confiscation and mutilation of reality, is confiscation of history and confiscation of culture. I think they all happen almost simultaneously.”

    What used to be unimaginable is now taking place in America. We see certain aspects of Nazi-like totalitarianism in the United States. The obsession with race, declaring an ethnic group collectively guilty, shaming, humiliations based on ethnicity, lootings, arson, racist violence, intimidation of opponents, cancel culture, controlled dissemination of news, and indoctrination of children in schools. We see fake news, conspiracy theories, an overhaul of history, a new language imposed, and unprosecuted theft. All in the name of a more just culture.

    On May 8, we remembered that America had a leading role in liberating Europe from the totalitarian Nazi regime. But who will liberate America if it becomes totalitarian state? America is playing with fire.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/12/2021 – 23:40

  • Antimony: A Mineral With A Critical Role In The Green Future
    Antimony: A Mineral With A Critical Role In The Green Future

    If someone asked you to name the first mineral that came to mind, odds are, it wouldn’t be antimony.

    Yet, despite its lack of fanfare, Visual Capitalist explains below just how significant a role it plays in our day-to-day lives.

    This graphic from Perpetua Resources provides an overview of antimony’s key uses, and the critical role it plays in the movement towards clean energy, among other uses.

    What even is Antimony?

    Antimony is an element found in the earth’s crust. Rarely found in its native metallic form, it is primarily extracted from the sulfide mineral stibnite.

    It has a variety of uses and is found in everything from household items to military-grade equipment. Because it conducts heat poorly, it’s used as a flame retardant in industrial uniforms, equipment, and even children’s clothing.

    Its second most common use, according to USGS, is in transportation and batteries. Traditionally, antimony has been combined with lead to create a strong, corrosion-resistant metal alloy, which is particularly useful in lead-acid batteries.

    However, recent innovation has found a new use for antimony—it now plays an essential role in large-scale renewable energy storage, which is critical to the clean energy movement.

    Antimony’s Role in Clean Energy

    Large-scale renewable energy storage has been a massive hurdle for the clean energy transition because it’s hard to consistently generate renewable power. For instance, wind and solar farms might have a surplus of energy on windy or sunny days, but can fall short when the weather isn’t sunny, or when the wind stops.

    Because of this, mass storage of renewable energy is key, in order to transition from fossil fuels to clean energy. Recent research points to liquid metal batteries as a potential storage solution—and these batteries heavily rely on antimony.

    But there’s a finite supply, and with China currently dominating antimony production and processing, the U.S. could be at the mercy of its economic rival.

    In 2020, there was no domestically mined production of antimony in America—meaning the U.S. relied on other countries, primarily China, for its antimony supply.

    In the past, China has imposed restrictions on the exports of antimony-based products to the U.S., which reduced availability and increased prices. Because of this, antimony was identified as one of the 35 minerals that are critical to U.S. national security.

    Tapping into Domestic Supply

    To decrease foreign dependence, the U.S. could tap into domestic resources of antimony and build up its local supply chain.

    The only major antimony deposit in North America is located in the Stibnite-Yellow Pine Mining District of central Idaho. This site is the largest reserve in the nation and is expected to supply roughly 35% of U.S. antimony demand on average for the first six years of production.

    Domestic production would not only allow the U.S. to reduce its import reliance, but it would also create jobs, providing economic support for the local community.

    In the near future, antimony demand could soar as a result of its critical role in clean energy storage—and domestic production via the Stibnite-Yellow Pine Mining district could play a key role in meeting this rising demand.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/12/2021 – 23:20

  • Divided We Stand: Why We Must Resist Political 'Unity'
    Divided We Stand: Why We Must Resist Political ‘Unity’

    Authored by Bruce Frohnen via RealClearPolicy.com,

    We hear a lot about “unity” these days. The Biden administration promises and even demands it. Meanwhile, Republicans (and some Democrats) charge the administration with hypocrisy because its radical programs can’t garner a legislative majority — let alone the consensus support the word “unity” implies. But the charge of hypocrisy misses the point: The demand for unity is dangerous because it aims to undermine the genuine diversity that is essential to a free people.

    To call for unity is, in effect, to call for obedience. But free people are not obedient. Free people should obey the law, of course, but they do so only because they have consented to the law. And before consent comes debate: Free people air differing opinions that reflect their differing backgrounds and experiences, rather than bowing to those who claim they know what’s best. Free and open debate — and the diversity of viewpoint such debate implies — is therefore essential to lawmaking in a democratic republic.

    This is our constitutional inheritance. Our lawmaking process is structured by mechanisms — such as the separation of powers, checks and balances, and lesser rules like the Senate filibuster — that ensure the views of the minority are not simply brushed aside by a fleeting political majority. Of course, from time to time, Americans do come together as one nation, for instance in the face of great tragedies or crises. Yet, unfortunately, such crises can easily be exploited or manipulated to stifle dissent and centralize political power.

    To fight this homogenizing tendency, we must reassert who we are as Americans: free citizens belonging to a wide variety of communities and associations, who can and should be heard in the public square.

    Whatever the ideologues of identity politics may claim, America was not founded by “white people.” It was settled by English Puritans and Quakers, German pietists, Swedish and Irish peasants, and Scottish adventurers, to name a few, who found themselves enmeshed in the conflicts of Algonquians, Iroquois, and other native peoples. These settlers formed insular religious communities as well as polyglot commercial towns. Some bought slaves taken by force from what are now Ghana, Nigeria, and other nations of Africa. All of these peoples made America.

    One of slavery’s many evils was its presumption that black skin made one an indistinguishable part of a monolithic group, without full human personality and agency. But slavery could not erase humanity. Enslaved people continued to forge diverse relationships, often rooted in common ties going back to specific regions in Africa. And slavery could not take away people’s natural drive to protect their own families and communities. As soon as emancipation came, freed slaves by the hundreds of thousands took to the roads to find lost family and community members, seeking to strengthen ties not even slavery could break.

    To reduce the variety of communities that shaped — and continue to shape — Americans of all races is to deny our full humanity.

    Communities are where we live, attend school and church, work and play, come together to protect our neighborhoods, and organize everything from charity drives to Easter Egg Hunts. They are where we suffer from nature’s fury, from outbreaks of disease to natural disasters, and grapple with socioeconomic changes, from drug abuse to crime to factory closings to demographic shifts. Simply put, communities are where we work to maintain, adapt, and rebuild our ways of life in the face of various challenges. Different circumstances, from geography and climate to economic realities and religious and ethnic heritage, shape communities in different ways. All of these communities — and the people belonging to them — are American, but they have different wants, needs, and points of view.

    Traditionally, Americans dealt with diversity through local self-government, leaving the state or federal government to decide only on general issues of national concern. This allowed Americans to keep the peace within and among our communities. As with all peoples, there have been tragedies and injustices in our history, most notably slavery. But the freedom implied by self-government has not only allowed Americans to organize their own lives in their own ways. It has also provided Americans with a developed moral sense — one that propelled the movement for emancipation from slavery.

    The Framers of our Constitution understood that self-government is freedom and that the concentration of power into one set of hands is tyranny. They understood that presidents must execute laws passed by Congress, not issue executive decrees with the force of law. They understood that courts must protect the laws, especially the higher law of the Constitution, rather than rewrite them. They understood that our nation is a community of communities — that policy and law must grow from the locality up to the nation, not the other way around.

    This federal understanding of self-government is reflected in constitutional mechanisms that are peculiar to American politics but universal in their purpose. Thus, for example, we choose senators by state rather than any national ideological platform. And we choose presidents, not by a national popular vote — which would hand power to a few highly urbanized states — but through the Electoral College, which represents the interests of urban, rural, industrial, agricultural, and commercial regions alike. This is not the politics of “unity,” but of shifting coalitions of diverse communities, designed to check the power of a centralized, national government.

    Our Constitution contains no national religion or ideology beyond commitment to ordered liberty. It recognizes people’s need to cultivate the habits of a free people by acting within their own localities. Only in local communities, with their own churches, local governments, and voluntary associations can people become good citizens, good men, women, fathers, mothers, and neighbors.

    Recent events in cities like Portland and Minneapolis may make it hard to believe that decent, local government is still possible. But the violence in these cities — like the conflicts in our country as a whole — may be partly explained by the erosion of community. When we nationalize our politics, we simplify the challenges we face and ignore the differences among us. Politics becomes a matter of grand, ideological schemes and mechanisms of control, rather than protecting communities and seeking common goods through our local associations and attachments.

    Today, rather than yield to demands for “unity,” we must fight to restore a politics of community. The federal government should protect, not replace, the fundamental associations of a free people. Their politics are based in hard-won compromises, which respect the fundamental character of our nation and link together — without eliminating — the diverse associations that together comprise this community of communities.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/12/2021 – 23:00

  • Fake Lobster Meat Grown In Labs Could One Day End Up In Supermarkets 
    Fake Lobster Meat Grown In Labs Could One Day End Up In Supermarkets 

    A Wisconsin-based startup is developing lobster and other seafood meat in a lab for a more sustainable approach for future food. 

    Cultured Decadence is creating cell-cultured seafood products that are nutritious, animal-friendly, and, most importantly, eco-friendly, according to Wisconsin State Journal.

    A quick overview of how the startup creates lab-grown lobster meat is called “cell-culture meat.” Researchers pick the best lobsters from the coast of Maine, select a small tissue from these lobsters at its Madison facility, isolate individual lobster cells from the tissue then grow the meat in a controlled environment with a nutrient-rich solution called media. Once the meat is grown, it’s ready to harvest. 

    “You’re really only consuming the meat portion of (lobsters) that only represents about 30% or so of the animal,” co-founder and CEO John Pattison said. “We want to just make the portion that is high value.”

    The company belongs to the expanding list of cell-cultured meat startups looking to offer animal-free alternatives to traditional farming and fishing.

    A company in California called Eat Just Inc. recently won regulatory approval in Singapore to sell its lab-grown chicken meat. 

    Back to Cultured Decadence, who said their meat products could be commercially available in just a few years. 

    No lab-grown meat products have been approved in the US, but there’s been a big push for plant-based products in recent years. 

    Pattison believes the quick adoption of plant-based meat, like Beyond Meat products, could make lab-grown meat even more popular. 

    “The trend that we’ve seen on the plant-based side is really encouraging for the cell-culture industry because it shows the conscious decision-making around the environmental impact and nutritional considerations” of meat consumption, Pattison said.

    Pattison said lab-grown seafood would alleviate overfishing problems worldwide and the adverse effects fish farms can have on the environment. 

    Lab-grown meat and plant-based meat are arriving at a time when billionaire elites and central bankers are resetting the global economy with green initiatives to lessen the world’s carbon footprint. 

    Thanks, but no thanks. Regular meat is fine. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/12/2021 – 22:40

  • Why Is the Government Hiding January 6 Video Footage?
    Why Is the Government Hiding January 6 Video Footage?

    Authored by Julie Kelly via American Greatness (emphasis ours),

    Joe Biden calls it the worst attack since the Civil War. Attorney General Merrick Garland compares it to the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing. The FBI is breaking down the doors of Iraq War veterans and small business owners who have no criminal records, and some are hauled off to rot in solitary confinement in a fetid D.C. jail, for their involvement in the alleged travesty.

    The event, of course, is the roughly four-hour-long disturbance at the U.S. Capitol on January 6. As mostly nonviolent Americans dared to protest Congress’ certification of a clearly fraudulent presidential election in a place that once was considered “The People’s House,” lawmakers scurried for cover as reporters and photographers captured part of the ruckus on video and still shots to wield as political ammunition against Donald Trump and his supporters.

    But have we seen a full and fair depiction of exactly what happened that day? The answer, as evidenced by an ongoing coverup by the U.S. Capitol Police and the Justice Department, clearly is no.

    Almost all the January 6 video seen by the public isn’t from official government sources but by social media users and journalists on the scene. For example, the widely viewed footage of protestors occupying the Senate chamber was recorded by a New Yorker journalist.

    But thousands of hours of real-time footage is in the hands of the Capitol Police—and that agency, along with government lawyers and federal judges, is using every legal trick possible to keep the trove hidden from the public even as clips are presented in court as evidence against hundreds of January 6 defendants.

    According to an affidavit filed in March by Thomas DiBiase, the Capitol Police department’s general counsel, the building is monitored 24/7 by an “extensive system of cameras” positioned both inside and outside the building as well as near other congressional offices on the grounds.

    The system captured more than 14,000 hours of footage between noon and 8 p.m. on January 6; the archive was made available to two Democratic-controlled congressional committees, the FBI, and the D.C. Metropolitan Police department. (After a request by Congress, the agency reportedly handed over footage from the entire 24-hour period.)

    Capitol Police also produced selective clips for Democratic House impeachment managers to use in the trial against Donald Trump.

    But Capitol Police argue that making all the tapes available to defense attorneys —let alone to the American public—could provoke future violence. “The Department has significant concerns with the release of any of its footage to defendants in the Capitol attack cases unless there are safeguards in place to prevent its copying and dissemination,” DiBiase wrote March 17. “Our concern is that providing unfettered access to hours of extremely sensitive information to defendants who already have shown a desire to interfere with the democratic process will . . . [be] passed on to those who might wish to attack the Capitol again.”

    The Justice Department, in numerous cases, is seeking protective orders to rigorously limit how surveillance video is handled by defense attorneys. Recordings have been deemed “highly sensitive” government material subject to onerous rules; the accused only have access to the evidence in a supervised setting. Clips cannot be copied, downloaded, shared, or reproduced in any fashion.

    “Defense counsel may not provide a copy of Highly Sensitive materials to Defendant or permit Defendant to view such materials unsupervised by defense counsel or an attorney, investigator, paralegal, or support staff person employed by defense counsel,” Judge Amit Mehta wrote in a protective order related to the conspiracy case against members of the Oath Keepers. “The parties agree that defense counsel or an attorney, investigator, paralegal, or support staff person employed by defense counsel, may supervise Defendant by allowing access to Highly Sensitive materials through a cloud-based delivery system that permits Defendant to view the materials but does not permit Defendant the ability to download.”

    Sounds legit.

    Fighting Back Against the Blackout

    But defense attorneys and the media now are fighting the video blackout. During a detention hearing last month for the two men accused of spraying officer Brian Sicknick—both have been behind bars and denied bail since their arrests in March—defense lawyers objected to the government’s use of “cherry-picked” video they couldn’t see in its full context which, if examined, might contain exculpatory evidence.

    Under pressure from a group of media outlets, the government finally released what it claims is the incriminating video showing the chemical spray “attack” against Sicknick. (It didn’t.) The choppy video included recordings from several surveillance cameras, a few D.C. police officers, and a bystander.

    Journalists continue to be frustrated by the Justice Department’s suppression tactics. In a plea last week to Beryl Howell, chief judge of the D.C. District Court handling all the January 6 cases, 14 news organizations asked for better access to video evidence presented in court. (Virtual court proceedings further help prosecutors keep the clips under wraps.)

    “[T]he press and public have not been able to access these videos on the Court’s electronic dockets,” lawyers representing CNN, ABC News, the Wall Street Journal and others wrote in a May 3 letter. “Delayed access to these historic records shuts the public out of an important part of the administration of justice.” The government, the lawyers told Howell, refuses to give a “substantive answer” as to why the video evidence isn’t publicly available and listed several cases where surveillance footage was played in court but not otherwise accessible.

    The secret video archive of January 6 isn’t the only recording under scrutiny. It’s also unclear whether Capitol Police kept the footage from January 5. DiBiase said surveillance video is routinely deleted after 30 days; only a “very limited” number of clips from January 5 were given to the U.S. Attorney in D.C., the office handling the massive investigation.

    It would be very convenient for the Capitol Police—no objective party in this saga since it launched the lie about Sicknick’s death—to purge footage from January 5 so defense attorneys and the public cannot see what sort of activity took place the day before the “insurrection.”

    So what, exactly, is the government trying to hide? How can activity inside and outside a public building be considered “highly sensitive?” In response to a Freedom of Information Act filing by Judicial Watch, Capitol Police told the group the recordings are not “public records.” But of course they are. A security system controlled by a federal agency in a public building paid for by taxpayers to conduct the public business of public officials is most certainly a public record.

    Even if legal loopholes allow for such an exemption, the greater public interest should supersede any technicalities. Major parts of the original narrative already have fallen apart, including the story that officer Sicknick was murdered by Trump supporters and the myth it was an “armed insurrection”; the full account of what prompted the killing of Ashli Babbitt by an unidentified Capitol cop is still unknown.

    Further, the Biden regime is weaponizing January 6 to hunt down and destroy the lives of people—many of whom committed no violent crimes—anywhere near the building that day. The Justice Department is promising to build sedition cases; Biden’s intelligence chiefs are operating outside their authorization in their effort to portray regular Americans as domestic terrorists.

    A president was impeached for his alleged role. Republican lawmakers continue to face threats for objecting to the election results in swing states. And millions of Trump voters, by extension, are considered conspiracy theorists and wannabe “insurrectionists.”

    There’s only one reason why the Justice Department wants to keep the footage under seal: it contradicts most if not all of the claims advanced by Democrats and the media over the past four months.

    Republicans, to the extent they can or will, and the media should demand the release of all the footage. Ditto for families of the defendants. The American public still doesn’t know exactly what happened on January 6—and it’s clear the government will use any means necessary to keep it that way.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/12/2021 – 22:20

  • Meituan's CEO Sees Billions Wiped Out Over An Innocuous Thousand-Year Old Chinese Poem
    Meituan’s CEO Sees Billions Wiped Out Over An Innocuous Thousand-Year Old Chinese Poem

    A seemingly innocuous post on an obscure social media platform by a Chinese billionaire CEO has sent shockwaves through the country’s tech industry, and cost food delivery giant Meituan many billions in a mere few days in what seems a repeat of last year’s Jack Ma “disappearance” saga. 

    Meituan CEO Wang Xing dabbles in literary classics, and wrote on social media a short poem comprised of just 28 Chinese characters from a 1,100-year old text about China’s first emperor and his ill-conceived efforts to stamp out dissent, which included attempts to stifle intellectual debate and any criticisms of himself by burning books. Apparently this was too much for China’s censors – as CNBC observes there were immediate and colossal repercussions: “Meituan has seen around $38.96 billion wiped off its value in the past two weeks as Beijing turns its regulatory scrutiny on the Chinese food delivery giant.”

    Meituan CEO Wang Xing via Reuters

    The poem which was posted to the social media platform Fanfou (akin to the more popular Weibo) was seen as a veiled criticism of Xi Jinping, causing Wang to later delete the post on May 9th while attempting to clarify that the posting of the poem was just intended to playfully highlight rivalries in business. He sought to assure there was no intended criticism of the government, and of course it was too late.

    China’s State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) had already launched an investigation into “suspected monopolistic practices” and the crackdown began – notably being SAMR’s merely second investigation into a domestic tech firm, with the first being Alibaba. 

    On top of Meituan seeing its shares plunge some 16% over the past two weeks, finding itself center of an ongoing global tech rout caused in large part by signs of China’s growing regulatory crackdown, it’s now facing immense fines for alleged malpractice related to monopolistic practices. Recall that Alibaba was fined 18.23 billion yuan ($2.8 billion).

    Scrutiny is now coming from other regulatory corners as well, notably the Shanghai Consumer Council, which is said to be examining unfair practices related to merchant fees.

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    As for the social media post which unintentionally kicked off Meituan being the next to find itself in the crosshairs, perhaps the sting in it felt from Beijing involved the fact that the story ends with the emperor being overthrown by a pair of uneducated citizens. 

    One analyst, the Global CIO Office (in Singapore) Gary Dugan, articulated to Bloomberg just how on edge the Chinese tech market is at this moment: “Any investor in single stock names in China at present would hope that they do less social media philosophizing about the future and just focus on managing their businesses.”

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/12/2021 – 22:00

  • Ira Sohn Conference Highlights: Einhorn's "New Oil", ESG Mania And More
    Ira Sohn Conference Highlights: Einhorn’s “New Oil”, ESG Mania And More

    The Sohn Investment Conference has gained public scrutiny over the past couple of decades as the marquee event in the hedge fund universe, where top managers gather to announce their latest long or shorts – either just after they’ve put them on or just before they unwind them – hoping to generate breathless media coverage and (with some fading luck) some follow-through in the market. But in the age of COVID-19, virtual conferences just don’t carry the weight they once did – which is understandable since part of the conference’s appeal was its head-to-head nature and its setting at Manhattan’s Lincoln Center.

    But it’s not just the dismal performance of the hedge fund community in the past decade, coupled with its inability to generate any alpha ever since the government cracked down on SAC’s use of “expert networks” in 2010, that interest in hedge funds has collapsed (don’t tell the producers of Billions). With the market enduring its bumpiest ride since February, and Bill Ackman stealing the spotlight by announcing his Dominos play from a completely different conference, there was a lot of other news vying for attention from the financial press on Wednesday, and investors could be forgiven for forgetting that Sohn even happened. But just in case you’re curious about what was said, here’s a quick recap.

    Greenlight Capital’s David Einhorn was the main even on Wednesday, and he didn’t disappoint. In his extremely topical commodity-focused pitch, Einhorn declared copper “the new oil” and pitched Teck Resources, while also discussing the potential of Freeport-McMoran as a “pure play” trade on the price of copper.

    Finkle is Einhorn

    After Greenlight badly underperformed the market during Q1, Einhorn penned a letter bashing “broken” markets, the Fed, Chamath and Elon and blaming them all for his firm’s underperformance.

    On Wednesday, he pointed out that while Teck has done well this year, it has underperformed Freeport. But setting aside the performance of individual firms, Einhorn argued that copper is facing a number of bullish supply-oriented trends. First, the pipeline of potential new capacity for copper – once praised as “Dr. Copper” by market enthusiasts for its perceived status as a harbinger of economic trends – is small because it takes a long time to create new mines. Because of this, supply is expected to be outpaced by demand by 2024, according to Einhorn.

    Teck briefly spiked on Einhorn’s endorsement, while Freeport finished more than 4% lower.

    Einhorn tied it all together by highlighting copper’s importance to the green energy trend. He devoted some of his time to discussing the upcoming rush for electric vehicles, which ties into his copper theme since copper is used in batteries and electric car motors, as well as wind and solar installations.

    Popular tech and stay-at-home names were also featured. Octahedron Capital’s Ram Parameswaran pitched Peloton, whose shares are hurting from a recent recall, saying its stock could rise 4x from its current level. Meanwhile, Glenernie Capital’s Andrew Nunneley pitched Hello Fresh, calling it it the “Tesla of meal kits.”

    D1 Capital’s Dan Sundheim talked about Netflix, while discuss his “really bullish” view on used car sales online.

    SPACs featured in at least one pitch, as Glenview Capital’s Larry Robbins pitched Fortress Value Acquisition, Thomas Bravo and Fast Acquisition, all of which rose in typical kneejerk fashion as the newswire headlines hit. Robbins also shared five “management stories” that he said were undervalued: DXC Technology, Myriad Genetics, Brookdale Senior Living, McKesson and Walgreens Boots Alliance.

    Trendy ESG stories also made an appearance with Impactive Capital’s Lauren Taylor Wolfe (one of the few female investors to ever pitch on stage at the conference) pitched KBR as a solid bet for investors looking to capitalize on the transition to a green economy.

    Just in case you couldn’t tell from the name, Wolfe’s firm is ESG-focused, and Wolfe said the transition to green energy is one she has been focusing on. While a lot of the companies in the space are venture-backed and pre-revenue “story stocks”, Wolfe said Impactive Capital instead went in search of companies that are already profitable, yet are poised to see accelerated growth tailwinds thanks to the energy transition.

    Lauren Taylor Wolfe

    Another female on the schedule, Perceptive Advisors’ Ellen Hukkelhoven, pitched a long position on BridgeBio Pharma.

    To sum up, the big stories at this year’s Sohn conference were chiefly focused on tech and ESG, two themes that will likely continue to dominate markets as humanity moves past the coronavirus pandemic into the post-COVID world.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/12/2021 – 21:40

  • Reckless Backseat Tesla Owner Arrested On California Highway  
    Reckless Backseat Tesla Owner Arrested On California Highway  

    Tesla’s “Autopilot” feature has been a major discussion following a fatal crash in Texas last month. “Autopilot” in itself implies full autonomous driving capabilities, though Tesla officials told regulators last week that it may not achieve full self-driving technology by the end of this year. Nevertheless, a number of Tesla owners have abused Autopilot. 

    On Tuesday, California Highway Patrol (CHP) arrested a 25yo man for reckless driving of a Tesla while sitting in the back seat headed toward Oakland from San Francisco. 

    Param Sharma was arrested without incident on Interstate-80 and booked into the Santa Rita Jail on two counts of reckless driving. 

    Before the arrest, CHP said members of the public recorded someone who resembled Sharma sitting in the backseat of a Model 3 without a driver. 

    Local news KTVU’s Henry Lee provided a video of Sharma “in back of this @Tesla ⁩with his foot on the wheel on the Bay Bridge, I-80 & across the region.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Fresh out of jail, Lee interviewed Sharma on Wednesday morning, who said he’s going to keep doing that because “I just pioneered all this…I don’t drive, and I don’t fill up gas.” 

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    Lee asked Sharma if his Tesla crashes and hurts someone, what would you say to that family? Sharma responded: “They’re not going to get hurt – the car doesn’t make mistakes.” 

    According to Tesla Deaths, there’s been a number of crashes that Autopilot was on. 

    Multiple videos show a gray Model 3 with California license plate number “BJ09C06” with someone resembling Sharma in the backseat. There was no confirmation if this is Sharma and these videos are from weeks ago. 

    CHP released a statement on Sharma’s arrest late Tuesday. 

    “The safety of all who share our roadways is the primary concern of the CHP. The Department thanks the public for providing valuable information that aided in this investigation and arrest,” the CHP wrote on Facebook.

    The CHP had asked that anyone who sees “an unusual incident such as this one” immediately call 911 with as many details as possible because it’s illegal in California for autonomous vehicles to operate without humans behind the wheel.

    Some have said it’s impossible to operate a Tesla in full self-driving mode without someone in the driver’s seat. But Consumer Reports recently noted that its testers got a Tesla Y to drive without someone behind the wheel.

    Ford Motor Company’s CEO recently said Tesla’s driverless tech is using customers as guinea pigs on public roads.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/12/2021 – 21:20

  • Lawmakers Reintroduce Bill To Ban "Ghost Guns"
    Lawmakers Reintroduce Bill To Ban “Ghost Guns”

    Authored by Janita Kan via The Epoch Times,

    Lawmakers have reintroduced a bill that they say would ban so-called “ghost guns,” or guns that are made from a build-it-yourself kit, in their latest gun control effort.

    The measure, dubbed the Untraceable Firearms Act, would expand the federal law’s definition of “firearm” to include “ghost gun” parts such as unfinished frames and receivers. The move would require online and other gun kit manufacturers and distributors who sell such parts to comply with the same federal regulation that governs the production and distribution of completed firearms, such as requiring sellers to obtain a manufacturer’s license and to place a serial number on the frame or receiver included in each kit. Purchasers of such kits must also undergo a background check.

    Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) introduced the bill along with 11 co-sponsors during a Senate Judiciary Constitution Subcommittee hearing on Tuesday. Rep. David Cicilline (D-R.I.) introduced a companion bill in the House. A version of a similar bill was introduced in 2020.

    “Our bill would close the ‘ghost’ gun loophole for good. An assault weapon built from a kit ordered online can kill just as many people as one bought in a store—only the DIY version doesn’t require an ID, licensing, or a background check,” Blumenthal said in a statement.

    “There’s nothing ghostly about ‘ghost’ guns—they look like guns, shoot like guns, and kill like guns. Our legislation would ensure that violent extremists, domestic abusers, and foreign terrorists can’t evade background checks and other safety measures by building weapons at home instead of buying them from a store.”

    Democrats and gun control activists have raised concerns about “ghost guns” and other 3D-printed firearms because they lack serial numbers, making them untraceable by authorities. They are also often made of plastic, meaning that they may not set off metal detectors at airports. They are also easy and cheap to make.

    Moreover, they could render current gun regulations unenforceable because people who are normally restricted from obtaining a gun could avoid background checks and other regulatory procedures.

    It comes after the Justice Department on Friday issued a notice of proposed rulemaking that the department said would “modernize the definition” of frame or receiver and close a regulatory loophole related to “ghost guns.”

    “We are committed to taking commonsense steps to address the epidemic of gun violence that takes the lives of too many people in our communities,” Attorney General Merrick Garland said in a statement.

    “Criminals and others barred from owning a gun should not be able to exploit a loophole to evade background checks and to escape detection by law enforcement. This proposed rule would help keep guns out of the wrong hands and make it easier for law enforcement to trace guns used to commit violent crimes, while protecting the rights of law-abiding Americans.”

    The department noted that between 2016 and 2020 there were more than 23,000 firearms without serial numbers reported to have been recovered by law enforcement from potential crime scenes, including in cases linked with homicides or attempted homicides.

    The Justice Department is also expected to introduce a proposed rule declaring a stabilizing brace that turns a pistol into a short-barreled rifle and publish model “red flag” legislation for states, according to a White House announcement in April.

    Red flag laws let family members or law enforcement ask a court to bar people from owning guns if the people allegedly present a danger to themselves or others.

    Gun rights advocates have criticized the announcement by the Biden administration, arguing that the proposed bans are government overreach that do “nothing to address the criminal misuse of firearms.”

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/12/2021 – 21:00

  • Watch: Apple AirTags Hacked By Security Researcher 
    Watch: Apple AirTags Hacked By Security Researcher 

    The Apple AirTag hasn’t even been out for two weeks, and someone has already hacked into the new tracking device. 

    9to5Mac reports that security researcher “Stack Smashing” was able to “break into the microcontroller of the AirTag” and modify elements of the item tracker software.

    A microcontroller is an integrated circuit (IC) used for controlling devices usually via a microprocessing unit, memory, and other peripherals. According to AllAboutCircuits, “these devices are optimized for embedded applications that require both processing functionality and agile, responsive interaction with digital, analog, or electromechanical components.”

    In a series of posts, Stack Smashing’s Twitter account demonstrated that after “bricking 2 AirTags,” the researcher was able to “break into the microcontroller of the AirTag!” 

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    He then said, “Be careful when scanning untrusted AirTags or this might happen to you.” 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Stack Smashing posted a YouTube video titled “How I hacked the Apple AirTags,” on Tuesday, outlining how he managed to hack the device.

    Apple has some explaining to do… 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/12/2021 – 20:40

  • Doug Casey: Why Modern Monetary Theory Will Destroy Money…
    Doug Casey: Why Modern Monetary Theory Will Destroy Money…

    Via InternationalMan.com,

    Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) centers around the notion that the economy in general, and money in particular, should be the creatures of the State.

    It’s not a new idea – the meme has been around in one form or another since at least the days of Marx.

    MMT basically posits that the wise and incorruptible solons in government should create as much currency as they think is needed, spend it in areas they like, and solve any problems that occur with more laws and regulations.

    It’s nothing new. Just a more radical version of the economic fascism that’s dominated the U.S. since at least the days of the New Deal. It’s just another name for an old, and very stupid, set of economic ideas. By stupid I mean, “showing an inability to predict the indirect and delayed consequences of actions.”

    Won’t Work

    Politicians are now talking about the supposed benefits of MMT. Pseudo-economists are doing their abstruse and incomprehensible mathematical computations about how it might affect the economy.

    The public will easily be convinced they’ll get something for nothing.

    But what we should be talking about here is moral principle. It’s not a question of whether MMT will work or not work. It won’t. It will work about as well as the economic policies of Venezuela and Zimbabwe, or Argentina.

    These schemes have never worked in all of history. They result in a vastly lower standard of living, along with social strife. MMT is about radically increased government control. The argument shouldn’t be over whether MMT will “work” or not. The argument should be about whether it’s moral and proper for people in the government – whether elected or appointed – to print money to change the economy into something that suits them better.

    What Money Is

    Money represents the hours of your life that you spent earning it. That’s the basic principle here. It represents concentrated life – all the things you want to have and do for yourself, and provide for others in the future.

    When these people destroy the value of money, they’re destroying part of your life.

    “Inflation” isn’t caused by greedy butchers, bakers, and gasoline makers. It’s caused by an excess of purchasing media. MMT will give the State total control of its quantity and quality.

    If the government increases the money supply by, say, 10 times, general prices will go up by 10 times. The value of your dollar savings will drop 90% – perhaps most Americans won’t care, because they have no savings, just debt.

    In any event, some people will get hold of a lot more of that 10x increase than others. And they’ll get hold of it earlier, before prices really take off.

    Who? Inevitably cronies.

    Moral Question

    Look, absolutely every government intrusion into the economy – whether it’s taxes or regulations or inflation – always benefits the people in and around the government. And damages society as a whole.

    But they’re sold to the voters, to the hoi polloi, to the “head count,” as something that will put them on easy street. Which is a lie, of course.

    But that’s not what the argument should be about. The average guy doesn’t understand economics; he doesn’t think, he feels.

    Furthermore, nobody talks about whether cockamamie ideas like MMT are morally right or wrong. Instead, they have pointless and ridiculous arguments about whether it works or not. Well, it doesn’t work. But that’s a distraction.

    This matter is essentially a moral question, not a technical question. Does somebody in government have a right to determine your economic destiny? Or not?

    The fact that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez [AOC] – an ambitious, terminally ignorant, morally crippled 31-year-old Puerto Rican bartender – is setting the tone for this whole discussion tells you how degraded the U.S. has become. It’s well on its way to turning into a giant welfare and police state.

    But, as you know, I always look on the bright side. Which is that – if you give yourself a little psychological distance – this is all a comedy.

    AOC, The Donald, Bolton, Bernie Sanders, Pocahontas, Hillary, Kamala, etc., etc. They’re all dangerous megalomaniacs. But the chimpanzees listen to them, choose teams, hang on to their every word, support them, and are easily incited to hoot and pant at each other.

    The American public is going to get exactly what it deserves. I have no sympathy for them. Or about as much as I would have had for the Romans in the fifth century, when the empire was collapsing.

    *  *  *

    It’s clear the Fed’s money printing is about to go into overdrive. The Fed has already pumped enormous distortions into the economy and inflated an “everything bubble.” The next round of money printing is likely to bring the situation to a breaking point. We’re on the cusp of a global economic crisis that could eclipse anything we’ve seen before. That’s precisely why bestselling author and legendary speculator Doug Casey just released this urgent video.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/12/2021 – 20:20

  • Purdue Pharma's Bankruptcy Has Cost The Company Nearly $400 Million In Professional Fees
    Purdue Pharma’s Bankruptcy Has Cost The Company Nearly $400 Million In Professional Fees

    Today in the “efficiency of the legal system” news…

    Professionals working on the bankruptcy of Purdue Pharma have amassed almost $400 million of fees and expenses, making up about half of the entire amount that all individuals harmed by the firm’s drug, OxyContin, would share under a proposed settlement. 

    The ongoing saga has turned “into a cash machine” for lawyers and consultants who have been hired by the company and its creditors, Bloomberg noted this week. The list of those on the dole include white-shoe law firms, premier restructuring advisers and investment bankers – all of whom are charging thousands of dollars per hour for their work.

    The company claims it is paying “market rates” for the professionals in its employ: “This is one of the most complex bankruptcies in history, and it merits seasoned and experienced counsel and financial advisers on all sides of the case,” it said. Should the settlement be approved by the courts, the company’s remaining assets will be handed to trusts for benefit of the states and municipalities who had to pay to handle the opioid crisis.

    Bob Lawless, a law professor at the University of Illinois, told Bloomberg: “These are huge — this is a large chunk of money that would otherwise be going to pay victims of a horrible tort. You have to pay the undertaker. Whether they have to be paid that much is another question.”

    Meanwhile, the bankruptcy docket is littered with letters to the judge begging for compensation, or even just information, from the company. The letters include a former baseball player who lost his son to overdose and a former Army doctor who said he had a stroke after getting hooked on opioids in 2018.

    Payments to those who filed personal injury claims will range from $3,500 to $48,000 with the most compensation awarded for OxyContin deaths.

    Davis Polk & Wardwell, who serves as the company’s lead bankruptcy council, has been paid more than $100 million already. They put in nearly 7,000 hours on the case in the month of October 2019 alone – amounting to more than $5 million in fees. The firm also billed Purdue for expenses that included $5,000 for meals and $3,500 per month at the Ritz-Carlton, the nearest hotel to the bankruptcy court. The firm also rented conference rooms at the hotel to meet with stakeholders. 

    The firm’s lead partner, Marshall Huebner, is charging $1,790 per hour for his services. Adam Levitin, a bankruptcy law professor at Georgetown University said: “Traditionally, bankruptcy has had a spirit of economy. I think that spirit has long since passed. The bottom line is bankruptcy attorneys don’t see themselves performing a service in the public interest.”

    More than 600,000 claims were filed against Purdue – which Bloomberg notes is almost 10 times as many lodged against Lehman Brothers when it blew up. 

    Lawless continued: “In these negotiations, you want someone who has a lot of experience, someone who is well-regarded and at the top of the profession. Those people are expensive.”

    The company concluded that it is “moving as quickly as possible to deliver a settlement worth more than $10 billion”. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/12/2021 – 20:00

  • The COVID Baby Bump That Wasn't
    The COVID Baby Bump That Wasn’t

    Authored by Michael Gartz via The American Institute for Economic Research,

    The year 2020 generated several visible changes to the structure of our society. In the US, citizens migrated to different parts of the country, workers changed or lost jobs, and education became virtual. 

    One thing, however, has not changed: despite expectations of a baby boom from idle couples locked down together, birth rates continue to fall. Birth rates were already trending downwards in Western countries as more women focused on their education and careers, thus delaying plans for marriage or starting a family. The shrinking wage gap between men and women also incentivized many women to postpone childbearing to remain in the workforce longer. 

    This pattern is reflected in the US, where birth rates hit a 35-year low in 2019: The CDC notes birth rates declined for nearly all age groups of women under 35, remained stagnant for those 35-39 and rose for women in their early 40s.

    But when state governments initiated lockdowns in March of 2020, commentators optimistically predicted an approaching Covid baby boom set to arrive around the start of 2021 as couples sheltered-in-place together. So far though, the boom hasn’t arrived. 

    CBS News reports that provisional data from 29 state health departments shows that births declined by approximately 7.3% in December 2020 — the biggest decrease since the baby boom ended in 1964. In fact, 2020 saw 50,000 fewer births across Arizona, California, Florida, Hawaii and Ohio than the previous year. Hawaii experienced the most significant decline, with birth rates decreasing 30.4% leading Bloomberg to conclude that the “Pandemic Baby Boom Turned Out to Be Bust Despite Lockdown.”

    So Why the Baby Bust?

    1. First Comes Love

    You know the old children’s rhyme about sitting in a tree, K-I-S-S-I-N-G? First comes love. Then comes marriage. Then comes a baby in a golden carriage.

    Well, 2020 probably didn’t have much kissing as lips hid behind masks and dating morphed from movie dates, candlelit dinners and romantic walks along the beach to lonely nights on the sofa watching apocalyptic films (or chick flicks), screen-lit virtual dinners, and socially-distanced outdoor picnics. 

    Adding to restrictions on available date-night activities, 7 in 10 people believe dating is expensive: in 2019 RealSimple said “a single person spends about $168 per month on dating.” USA Today reported a study which found that 21% of millennials believe they need to reach a certain income level before pursuing a relationship, and 22% of singles said they were deterred from pursuing a relationship based on the potential partner’s financial situation. 

    In 2020, increased financial pressures forced many millennials — adults between the ages of 24 and 39 — to move back home with their parents. Pew Research notes that financial pressures or job loss accounted for 18% of pandemic-induced moves, while 23% of young adults moved due to college campus closures. Overall, there was a 6-percentage point increase in 18-29 year olds living with parents between January and July 2020, a 5-percentage point increase from July of the previous year. Last year, the percentage of young adults living at home had surpassed Great Depression-era levels with 52% living at home by July. 

    Source: Pew Research

    Financial pressures and alternative living situations could serve as one explanation for why there was a drop in birth rates for women in this age group.

    2. Then Marriage?

    If love comes before marriage, then we should expect a domino effect resulting in fewer upcoming nuptials. Weddings can take an average of 13-18 months to plan. 

    Under Covid, event venue cancellations, restrictions on large gatherings and inability for friends and family to travel across state and national boundaries left couples all over the world scrambling as their weddings were cancelled once, twice, three times as restrictions were implemented and later reintroduced. 

    As unromantic as it is to talk about, the fact remains that marriage provides added legal and financial stability to having children. Reuters notes that in Italy, marriages fell over 50% in the first 10 months of 2020. By December, 9 months after initiating lockdowns, there was a bambino bust: births had dropped 21.6%. A decrease in the number of weddings is correlated with lower demand for baby carriages. British imports of baby carriages plunged “to the lowest level since records began in 2000.”

    3. And Babies!

    The 2020 restrictions on “non-urgent” and “elective” procedures served a devastating blow to the one in seven couples that have difficulty conceiving. In 2018, over 74,000 American babies were conceived through IVF, or in-vitro fertilization — a treatment which requires carefully scheduled medications and regular appointments, treats a range of infertility issues caused by problems with sperm, ovulation, endometriosis or egg quality. 

    The BBC reported that, last April, the UK banned all new fertility treatments. This means some couples have or will miss their last chance to conceive. “If you’re 25,” says Dr Barry Witt, a fertility centre medical director in Connecticut, “you can wait a year. If you’re 40 that’s a different story.” 

    The “time crunch” has led to bouts of depression, anxiety, anger and desperation amidst patients waiting to resume treatments, “because they can’t wait for a year or two because chances of success could diminish dramatically.” Dr Marco Gaudoin says that, “Statistically from the age of 34 onwards, for every month that passes your chances drop by around 0.3%. So after six months it’s [dropped] about 2%.”

    4. A Lonely Road to Labor

    Few people would willingly take on additional stressors during lockdowns, uncertainty and financial stress during Covid. Depriving expectant mothers of significant milestones, such as baby showers and gender reveal parties isolates them from supportive networks of friends and family essential to reducing stress and improving mood. 

    Stress undoubtedly increased following hospital guidance which would allow the mother to have only one visitor by her side during labor, delivery, and postpartum — in some instances visitors were banned altogether.

    During a 4-day ban, one expectant mother was told that her husband would not even be allowed to enter the hospital to fill out paperwork or carry her heavy hospital bag. She reported that “[the hospital] wanted labours to move along as efficiently as possible. Instead of 48 hours, we’d only get to stay in the hospital for 24.” 

    Fear and stress can negatively impact the well-being of infants and development of the fetus. A 2004 study found that mothers living within 2 miles of the World Trade Center and whose infants were in utero during 9/11 had reduced birth weights, gestation periods and head circumferences (indicative of brain development) — an effect that was even more pronounced for mothers in their first trimester.

    5. A Healthy Baby?

    Adding to pregnancy concerns were questions about how Covid could affect embryos and developing fetuses. One New York Times article asking “Why Women May Face a Greater Risk of Catching Coronavirus” noted a CDC statement “that it has observed miscarriage and stillbirth in pregnant women infected with other coronaviruses like SARS and MERS.” 

    Some professionals were so cautious they told their patients to “just stay home” as IVF provider Dr. Aimee Eyvazzadeh did. She advised expectant mothers to:

    avoid anything that looks like a human… sounds like a human… walk[s] like a human… or breathes like a human. Wrap yourself in bubble wrap.

    During Covid, expectant mothers’ fears have only been exacerbated by headlines warning, “Pregnant Women are at Higher Risk For Severe Covid-19 And Death.” According to the article, 

    After adjusting for age, race, ethnicity, and underlying conditions such as diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and chronic lung disease, pregnant women were three times more likely to be admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU), and 2.9 times more likely to receive mechanical ventilation compared to nonpregnant women in the same age group.

    But Forbes noted that this could also be due to the physiological changes associated with pregnancy — including increased heart rate and oxygen consumption, decreased lung capacity, and decreased function of the immune system.

    6. Unemployment and Loss of Health Care

    Because of increased unemployment after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, the number of women with employer-sponsored health coverage fell for the first time. A Brookings analysis found that this “led to a large decline in birth rates, after a period of relative stability”:

    In 2007, the birth rate was 69.1 births per 1,000 women ages 15 to 44; in 2012, the rate was 63.0 births per 1,000 women. That nine percent drop meant roughly 400,000 fewer births.

    A study analyzing 40 million US birth records from 1975 to 2010 noted a similar pattern: “a one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate experienced at 20 to 24 is associated with an overall loss of 14.2 conceptions [per 1,000 women].” 

    And this pattern has continued during Covid. Under growing economic and social insecurity 40% of women reported in a Guttmacher Reproductive Health Survey that they have “changed their plans about when to have children or how many children to have.” 

    According to KFF, 61% of American women aged 19 to 64 (i.e. 59 million females) had employer-sponsored health insurance coverage in 2019. But, as my colleague Amelia Janaskie wrote, women have been disproportionately affected by the 2020 lockdowns because they make up a greater portion of in-person service industries for which teleworking is less feasible. 

    Uninsured women often have inadequate access to care, get a lower standard of care when they are in the health system, and have poorer health outcomes. Healthcare coverage is essential to help cover medical costs of pregnancy, such as ultrasounds, prenatal tests and care — costs that can quickly add up. 

    7. The Baby’s Drinking Alcohol

    Babies remain expensive until adulthood. In 2019 the average cost in most US states for a vaginal birth was $5,000–$11,000 and $7,500–$14,500 for a cesarean (assuming there are no complications during birth). 

    Depending on location and household income, new parents can expect to spend $20,000 to $50,000 during the first year of their newborn’s life. And New York Life wrote in 2015 that middle-income households could expect to spend between $12,350 and $13,900 on their children annually up to age 17. With job insecurity being high in 2020, the added cost of childbirth could be infeasible to many women.

    *  *  *

    Covid has only exacerbated a downward trend in birthrates; Brookings expects to see between 300,000 and 500,000 fewer births in 2021. The social impacts of such a significant demographic shift will be enormous.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/12/2021 – 19:40

  • Chicago Gun Network Traced To Enlisted Soldiers At Ford Campbell 
    Chicago Gun Network Traced To Enlisted Soldiers At Ford Campbell 

    Chicago is a dangerous liberal-run city with recent crime statistics that show gun violence is out of control. One unlikely source of gun violence is three enlisted soldiers at Fort Campbell, Kentucky, who operated a gun smuggling operation into the metro area. 

    Demarcus Adams, 21; Jarius Brunson, 22; and Brandon Miller, 22, were arrested Tuesday by Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives and U.S. Army Criminal Investigation Command agents for pedaling dozens of firearms onto the streets of Chicago, including pistols recovered at a mass shooting, according to NBC Chicago. 

    The enlisted soldiers were charged with making false statements while purchasing dozens of firearms, transferring firearms to an out-of-state resident, wire fraud, money laundering, conspiracy, and selling guns without a license. 

    Agents said the three purchased 91 firearms from multiple dealers around Fort Campbell and supplied them to associates in Chicago. There was no word on who exactly were these “associates.” 

    NBC said the three soldiers were expected to appear before a U.S. judge in Nashville Tuesday. If they’re convicted, each could face up to two decades in federal prison. 

    “I can confirm that the Soldiers involved in the case are assigned to Fort Campbell,” 101st Airborne Division spokesperson Lt. Col. Kari McEwen told Army Times. “We will continue to cooperate fully with law enforcement authorities in this investigation.”

    Two years since Chicago mayor Lori Lightfoot won that runoff election, her multi-year plan to combat violent crime across the city is in shambles. Most recent crime statistics show that murders jumped 56% from April 26 to May 2 compared with the same period last year. The number of shooting incidents also spiked 40% during the same time year-over-year.

    Chicago police data show year-to-date (May 2) murders were at 195 and shootings were 865, up from 160 murders and 650 shootings reported by the same time in 2020.

    Who would’ve ever thought enlisted soldiers were funneling serialized guns that they bought onto Chicago streets. Idiots. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/12/2021 – 19:20

  • U.S. Army Corps Of Engineers To "Resume" Border Wall Construction 
    U.S. Army Corps Of Engineers To “Resume” Border Wall Construction 

    President Biden is finally wising up after stoking a crisis at the southern U.S. border, which started after the 2020 election. Fox News reports the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers will restart border wall construction in Rio Grande Valley. 

    Fox News’ Bill Melugin tweeted, “Fox News has confirmed via the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers that construction on a 13.4 mile stretch of border wall in the Rio Grande Valley will *RESUME* after pressure from local residents & politicians.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    For months, the Biden team downplayed the massive increase in refugees at the border – even going radio silent about the disaster. By April, the president finally admitted the federal government was facing a “crisis” at the border with the massive influx of migrant children. 

    The same Trump wall that Biden and his team criticized repeatedly appears to be restarting construction. Perhaps, former President Trump was right about the border and the need for a wall. This proves Biden and his team are clueless. 

    Trump was right, “build that wall.” 

     

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/12/2021 – 19:00

  • SoftBank Reports Record Profits For Japanese Firm But Shares Slide As Market Demands Buybacks
    SoftBank Reports Record Profits For Japanese Firm But Shares Slide As Market Demands Buybacks

    SoftBank just capped off a series of robust quarterly earnings reports by delivering the biggest-ever quarterly profit for a Japanese firm: On Wednesday, the Japanese telecom firm with a VC arm reported net income of $17.7 billion – or ¥1.93 trillion – during the three months ended on March 31. This brought SoftBank’s annual net profit of ¥4.99 trillion (or $45.9 billion) for the 12 months period ended in March, marking a record not just for SoftBank, but for any Japanese company.

    But investors found reason to doubt, as SoftBank shares slumped more than 3% after the earnings report was released. It’s important to note that unlike other companies that earn cash income by extracting oil (like Exxon) or selling digital advertising (like Facebook), practically all of SoftBank’s profits were attributed to investment gains in the vast portfolio of public and private companies owned by the firm. In Q1, these gains were largely driven by the newly public Coupang, a South Korean e-commerce giant struggling to emulate Amazon, which was responsible for nearly all of the firm’s profits.

    As the FT’s Lex columnist pointed out, Of the 125 portfolio companies in SoftBank’s two Vision funds, gross returns depend on just a handful. Coupang, DoorDash and Uber make up 80% of the first fund’s gross return.

    SoftBank founder and CEO Masayoshi Son argued during a presentation following the earnings report that investors aren’t giving him enough credit for all the value he has created at SoftBank. But with the WeWork fiasco still fresh in investors’ memories, we don’t blame them for still being skittish given the extreme volatility the firm has experienced in its investment returns.

    As its earnings numbers showed, SoftBank’s ‘Vision Fund’ arm went from being the source of the company’s biggest losses ever just one year ago to the main driver of the firm’s profits. Vision Fund’s take amounted to ¥2.3 trillion in the quarter ended in March.

    But while Masa tried to couch these volatile returns as part of a “new normal” at SoftBank, investors clearly still have some concerns.

    “Our profit and revenue are both measured in trillions of yen, but just a year ago we had a record loss,” Son said during a post-earnings briefing with analysts and reporters. “For SoftBank, profits and losses in trillions of yen are the new normal.”

    Their biggest concern is whether SoftBank will look to lock in more of its tech-heavy gains by buying back more of its stock. A massive share buyback program announced last year has already run out, though not before helping send SoftBank shares close to record highs, and reversing some of the firm’s post-WeWork losses.

    On the subject of more buybacks, Masa sounded noncommital, which analysts said helped trigger a selloff in SoftBank shares.

    “Yes, we will consider buying back our own shares,” Masa said. But he stressed that there are a lot of factors that go into these decisions, and that buybacks can’t simply be deployed to prop up the share price (even though ‘returning capital to shareholders’ is literally their only purpose).

    Here’s a breakdown of the company’s Q1 profits: Coupang contributed $24.5 billion to Vision Fund’s Q4 profit. Auto1 Group, a German wholesale platform for used cars which went public in February, contributed $1.8 billion of the gains, while Uber was responsible for a $200M loss. SoftBank doesn’t need to sell shares to book income, so most of its profits are unrealized in the form of equity gains.

    Kirk Boodry, an analyst at Redex Research in Tokyo, told Bloomberg that while he understand’s Masa’s rhetoric, he understands why investors are uncomfortable with the intense uncertainty baked into the company’s outlook.

    “I get his points, but the last two years have shown there can be extreme volatility in returns and little agreement on future prospects.”

    A senior analyst at Jeffries put it another way:

    “The problem facing SoftBank is that the good news is already out,” said Atul Goyal, senior analyst at Jefferies. “What is less visible are the potential losses on blue-chip public stock investments and derivatives. The negatives are pretty opaque and that’s where investors will be looking at during earnings.”

    SoftBank has a portfolio of 224 companies across three different funds as of the end of March, and Son says the company could see between 10 and 20 portfolio companies opt for public listings every year for the foreseeable future.

    But replicating last year’s success will require SoftBank to duplicate the blockbuster returns in its investment portfolio. With a rout in US tech stocks already spreading to Asia, investors have reason to be skittish about SoftBank. After all, this is still the firm that once valued WeWork at $47 billion.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/12/2021 – 18:40

  • Tesla Suspends Bitcoin Payments Over "Concerns About Environmental Impact"
    Tesla Suspends Bitcoin Payments Over “Concerns About Environmental Impact”

    After announcing plans to accept payment for Tesla’s cars in bitcoin back in February, Tesla CEO Elon Musk has just announced via tweet that the company will suspend bitcoin payments over concerns about the environment.

    As perhaps the biggest booster of bitcoin in corporate America, Tesla announced during its Q1 earnings report released last month that it made a $272 million profit selling some of the bitcoin it had purchased on the company’s balance sheet. Earlier this week, Musk joked about the possibility that the firm might accept Doge for payment.

    In a note published on Twitter, Musk wrote that while he is still personally a believer in the crypto currency, Tesla has become concerned about the role of fossil fuels in bitcoin mining, a common criticism made by environmentalists against bitcoin. “Cryptocurrency is a great idea on many levels and has a promising future but this cannot come at a great cost to the environmet,” Musk wrote. He added that the company “will not be selling any bitcoin and we intend to use it for transactions as soonas mining transitions to a more sustainable energy.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The note comes after Musk joked earlier this week about the prospect of the company accepting payment in Dogecoin as well.

    The price of bitcoin kneejerked lower on Musk’s tweet, according to Coin Market Cap, extending its 24-hour decline to 6%.

    While the initial reaction in crypto was anything but bullish, analysts quickly noted that this could be good news for ethereum, as Musk noted in his tweet that Tesla will be looking at alternatives in the crypto space that use “<1%" of bitcoin's energy consumption.

    As JPM recently pointed out in a note to clients, ESG factors are one reason ethereum’s explosive move higher, which has made it a standout crypto performer in recent weeks, will likely continue. The greater focus by investors on ESG has shifted attention away from the energy intensive bitcoin blockchain to the ethereum blockchain, which in anticipation of Ethereum 2.0 is expected to become a lot more energy efficient by the end of 2022. Ethereum 2.0 involves a shift from an energy intensive Proof-of-Work validation mechanism to a much less intensive Proof-of-Stake validation mechanism. As a result, less computational power and energy consumption would be needed to maintain the ethereum network.

    In other words, this is one area where ethereum can out-compete bitcoin in the long run.

    But when it comes to fossil fuel consumption, the traditional banking system has crypto beat.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/12/2021 – 18:29

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May 12

Today’s News 12th May 2021

  • Le Pen Warns Macron "Danger Of Civil War" Looms If He Doesn't Handle Islamist Problem
    Le Pen Warns Macron “Danger Of Civil War” Looms If He Doesn’t Handle Islamist Problem

    The French government and much of the public has reacted with outrage after another open letter issued by military personnel has warned that France is headed for “civil war” if it doesn’t handle its Muslim extremism problem.

    The controversy was further stoked when Marine Le Pen – commonly dubbed by mainstream media as France’s outspoken “leader of the far-right” – once again showed support for the letter by agreeing on the “danger of a civil war” in an apparent rallying of her base around the message ahead of next April’s election where they’ll seek to take on President Emmanuel Macron. Clearly a significant bulk of officer and enlisted military members agree with her stark assessment.

    Marine Le Pen speaking to military personnel, via AFP

    Bloomberg noted that “While Le Pen has consistently spoken out about tightening migration and the need to be tougher on Islamism, her recent comments are perhaps the most controversial to date.”

    The Macron government condemned the second letter issued Sunday as “crude” – which unlike the first letter written by 20 retired generals and which included signatories by some 1,000 currently serving soldiers – had anonymous authorship: 

    The letter, posted on the website of the rightwing Valeurs Actuelles magazine late Sunday, echoes the one published by the same publication last month but appears to have been written by an unknown number of younger troops still in active service.

    Far-right leader Marine Le Pen said France was in danger of a civil war as it prepared to tackle President Emmanuel Macron in next April’s election.

    At least 200,000 people had signed the letter by the time Le Pen commented on it. In particular Le Pen while at a campaign event on Monday had promoted the new letter as a “clear” assessment of the country’s inability to combat the growing tide of Islamism. 

    “There is always the danger of civil war,” she had said, which her opponents were quick to dimiss, and are calling out the statements as far-fetched and outrageous.

    Among more controversial highlights of the letter include the line: “If a civil war breaks out, the military will maintain order on its soil because it will be asked to do so,” it said while addressing Macron, according to Bloomberg. It said the active duty signatories have long been “fighting Islamism, to which you are making concessions on our soil.”

    Read a translation of the full letter below…

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    “If nothing is undertaken, laxity will continue to spread inexorably in society, causing, in the end, an explosion and the intervention of our comrades in action in a perilous mission of protecting our civilisational values and safeguarding our compatriots in the national territory,” the letter said.

    “There is no more time for procrastination, otherwise tomorrow the civil war will put an end to this growing chaos, and the dead, for which you will bear responsibility, will number in the thousands.”

    It also calls out French leaders’ “hatred” of the country’s own history (a reference to the ongoing debate over French colonialism) while at the same time making accommodating statements on Islamic extremism.

    And all of this comes after the shocking street beheading of 47-year old teacher Samuel Paty, who Muslim students and parents had accused of showing derogatory cartoons of Islam’s founder Muhammad to his students. France and other European countries have since been rocked by similar Islamist shootings and attacks, including against Jewish neighborhoods.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/12/2021 – 02:45

  • UK Plans To Require Voter ID To Ensure Election Integrity
    UK Plans To Require Voter ID To Ensure Election Integrity

    Authored by Alexander Zhang via The Epoch Times,

    The UK government plans to introduce requirements for voters to show photographic ID when casting ballots, in order to ensure the integrity of elections.

    The Electoral Integrity Bill, which requires voters to show identification before being issued with a ballot paper in a polling station, is part of the Conservative government’s legislative agenda set out in the Queen’s Speech on Tuesday.

    “We think showing identification to vote is a reasonable approach to combat the inexcusable potential for voter fraud,” Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s official spokesman said.

    “Everyone wants to maintain the integrity of our democracy and this would bring us in line with not only Northern Ireland but countries such as Canada, many European countries including France, the Netherlands, Sweden—all require a form of identification to vote,” the spokesman said.

    The main opposition Labour party accused the government of trying to make it harder for people to vote.

    Shadow Justice Secretary David Lammy said on Twitter that the government is prioritising “voter suppression” and “disenfranchising millions through Voter ID.”

    Lisa Nandy, Labour’s shadow foreign secretary, told Sky News that the government should defend the UK’s democracy by taking action against Russian interference.

    Asked if Labour would support plans to require voter IDs, she said: “We have got to defend our democracy robustly but I just think it’s really bizarre coming from this government that they have made it so much more difficult for people in this country to vote over recent years, but they have taken absolutely no action to defend our democracy from attacks overseas.”

    The Electoral Integrity Bill has also come under attack from U.S. civil rights groups.

    According to The Guardian, The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC), and Common Cause said the requirement for voter ID “amount to Republican-style voter suppression and are likely to erode faith in the democratic process.”

    Voters casting their vote in polling stations in Great Britain currently do not need to present any form of identification before receiving a ballot paper, but identification has been a requirement in Northern Ireland, also part of the UK, for nearly 40 years.

    Voter ID requirements were introduced in Northern Ireland after the 1983 General Elections following concerns about the extent of voter fraud in the British province. Since 2003 photographic ID has been required.

    According to a briefing paper for the House of Commons, “There has been no evidence that the ID requirements in Northern Ireland have affected turnout.”

    Since 2014 the Electoral Commission has recommended that photo ID should be required in the rest of the UK.

    The Commission recommends that any system of voter ID introduced in Great Britain should mirror that in Northern Ireland, where voters without access to approved photo ID can apply for a free photographic electoral ID card from their local council.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/12/2021 – 02:00

  • How 'Woke' May Be Leading Us To Civil War
    How ‘Woke’ May Be Leading Us To Civil War

    Authored by Roger Simon via The Epoch Times,

    The other day, I wrote that “woke” was the new conformism.

    It is, of course, but I undersold it. It’s much more than that and more dangerous.

    As Tal Bachman notes at Steynonline, it’s now our state religion, a state religion in a country that – constitutionally and for good reason – isn’t supposed to have one.

    But “Wokism” is yet more than that, too. It’s a mass psychosis similar to many that have arisen throughout history when the masses followed leaders who, in their zeal or self-interest, took them to disastrous ends.

    A good example was when the Dominican friar Girolamo Savonarola – in a 1497 version of “cancel culture” – swept up everything secular in Florence from some of the most extraordinary paintings and sculpture of all time to the works of Boccaccio and burned them in the so-called Bonfire of the Vanities.

    Being Jewish, I am also reminded of the bizarre tale of Sabbatai Zevi, the 17th-century Sephardic rabbi who proclaimed himself the long-awaited true messiah of the Jews, garnered thousands of followers, and then ended up leaving them completely in the lurch when he converted to Islam. (Interestingly, Bachman writes that “wokism” resembles Islam structurally.)

    Closer to our time, the great Italian director Federico Fellini, in his film “La Dolce Vita” (1960), shows us what seems like hundreds of people rushing about, tears streaming, trampling each other, believing reports that the Madonna has been sighted. As the scene progresses, the crowd grows, with more and more people convinced of the sighting.

    Of course, what Fellini documents is more or less harmless—not so “woke.” This psychosis has a political dimension and the capability of changing a society, which it has already done.

    Face Excommunication

    “Woke” gains adherents much in the manner of “est”—the cult-like Erhard Seminars Training—that I attended in the 1970s at the behest of a movie producer interested in making a film about it. (It never happened.)

    If you’re too in, you’re out.

    For est, several hundred people sat in a large conference room listening to the “training” for hours under instructions not to get up, even to go to the bathroom, until they raised their hands signaling they “got it” (i.e., effectively joined the cult). Nature’s calling being what it is, most eventually did.

    Although operationally similar, “woke” is exponentially more perilous than the now-defunct est training. Our position in society, our livelihoods, and our children’s educations and futures are being held over our heads, not our mere use of a restroom.

    An iron-fisted, ideologically extreme minority has our country under its thumb—play along or face ex-communication. This is stronger than anything in our history and almost identical to what we see and have seen in totalitarian countries.

    It’s a psychosis approaching mass hallucination.

    In Franco’s Spain, they shouted, “Viva la muerte!” (“Long live death!”) Here we are asked to proclaim just as loudly “Black Lives Matter,” to display signs saying as much on our lawns, although we never thought otherwise and always thought (naively, we are told) that all lives mattered.

    All key aspects, most parts of them anyway, of our society “get it” as they did in est (i.e., now believe in ”woke”) or, yet more ominously, cynically say they do—the media, the corporations (“Better woke than broke!”), the government bureaucracy, the Democratic Party, the Department of Justice, the FBI, the military (yikes!), entertainment, the university system, the K–12 system, the medical community, the scientific community (incredibly), the religious community (sadly), and on and on.

    All, to one extent or another, believe in “woke” except—the people.

    Most of the people anyway.

    Most of what used to be called the common men (or women) in the street roll their eyes at “woke”—including even some silent, but browbeaten, Democrats—and do their best to move on, although many realize that “woke” and its sister “social justice” are in essence euphemisms for an ideology far more totalitarian than any ever in control of this country, communism.

    Rebellion Brewing

    How long can this gaping dichotomy continue?

    How long before they stop rolling their eyes?

    A rebellion against “woke” is brewing, particularly in red states, some of which are banning or have already banned critical race theory in their schools, among other pushbacks. (Kudos to Rep. Mark Green, Republican of Tennessee and Iraq War veteran, for introducing legislation to block critical race theory training at U.S. military academies.)

    But will that be enough against a federal government that lives and breathes this evil ideology and that is essentially governed by a homegrown politburo—the thought that Biden acts by himself is ludicrous—determined to impose it?

    As this imposition increases, the “contradictions,” as the Marxists would say, are heightened.

    What the extremist ideology of “woke” actually provokes is talk of—and not just talk—secession and even civil war.

    Few of us have heard anything like that in our lifetimes. But now it’s real. We have been driven apart as never before. We have been awakened indeed.

    Anything can happen and some of us, who would never have considered anything like secession and civil war, suddenly do—highly disturbing to us as those thoughts may be.

    So why do we even tolerate “woke”?

    Bachman gives us a quotation from Austrian philosopher Karl Popper that is remarkably apposite for our times:

    “Unlimited tolerance must lead to the disappearance of tolerance. If we extend unlimited tolerance even to those who are intolerant, if we are not prepared to defend a tolerant society against the onslaught of the intolerant, then the tolerant will be destroyed, and tolerance with them.”

    From Antifa to BLM (whose leader apparently identifies with the mass murderer Chairman Mao) to the willfully blind talking heads of left-wing cable TV, no one is as intolerant as the ”woke” folks. They break all domestic records in that regard.

    Time to stop tolerating them.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 05/11/2021 – 23:25

  • China Calls UN Planned Event On Xinjiang "Total Blasphemy"
    China Calls UN Planned Event On Xinjiang “Total Blasphemy”

    China is angrily boycotting and urging the banning of a planned United Nations event because it will highlight human rights and China’s treatment of Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang.

    The event will be held virtually on Wednesday, and is sponsored by the United States, Germany, and Britain. China’s foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying issued a hugely provocative statement Monday, saying “This is total blasphemy against the United Nations.”

    Image via Xinhua

    “The US has banded up with several countries, abused the United Nations’ resources and platform, and smeared and attacked China to serve it’s own interests,” she said at a daily briefing Monday. She urged UN member nations to not attend the virtual event which she further said is an insult to the institution.

    China’s UN mission issued a simultaneous rejection of the planned UN meeting, “We trust the member states will see through this political scheme… and choose to reject it,” it said. “The US and other co-sponsors are obsessed with fabricating lies and plotting to use Xinjiang-related issues to contain China and create mess in China.”

    Beijing has long sought to combat an avalanche of Western media stories highlighting the network of labor and communist-run ‘reeducation’ centers for China’s minority Muslim population. Chinese officials have defended what they tend to call “vocational centers” which are “necessary” to combat Islamic extremism.

    It should be remembered that China has for years boasted of its outsized monetary contributions to the United Nations, particularly with regard to its peacekeeping mission, and also being a major contributor of troops.

    Detention facility in the Kunshan Industrial Park in Artux in western China’s Xinjiang region, via AP.

    Currently, China is the second-largest funder of the UN’s peacekeeping mission at 15% of the total budge, behind the United States (at 27%).

    Like with its influential role within the World Health Organization (WHO), Beijing probably expects more quid pro quo type acknowledgement when it comes to the issues the UN highlights.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 05/11/2021 – 23:05

  • Bovard: Biden's "America The Beautiful" Vision Ignores Feds' Dreadful Record
    Bovard: Biden’s “America The Beautiful” Vision Ignores Feds’ Dreadful Record

    Authored by James Bovard via The American Institute for Economic Research,

    Will Biden’s “America the Beautiful” program save America’s environment? On January 27, President Joe Biden issued an executive order proclaiming “the goal of conserving at least 30 percent of our lands and waters by 2030.”

    That target would require almost tripling the amount of land under government restrictions – an area twice the size of the state of Texas. Last week, the Biden administration released a 22-page “America the Beautiful” vision statement short on details but overflowing with bromides including the following gem: “The road to a full recovery remains steep, but President Biden is determined to lead America to new heights.” 

    Biden has not yet specified which provision of the Constitution entitles the president to proclaim national land use goals. Regardless, he is reaping applause for pledging to fight climate change, protect biodiversity, expand parkland, and other courageous positions. Biden is launching the initiative regardless of the feds’ own dreadful environmental record. As law professor Jonathan Turley observed, “the government remains the nation’s premiere environmental felon.” 

    But everything will be different under Biden, right? His plan was jointly developed by the Commerce, Interior, and Agriculture Departments. Gina McCarthy, Biden’s senior climate change advisor, proclaimed, “This is the very first national conservation goal we have ever set as a country.”

    However, much of the plan resembles what the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has claimed to be achieving for almost a century. 

    Federal agricultural policy offers stark lessons on the folly of trusting politicians with the environment. Since Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal, farm policymakers have routinely portrayed the private sector as inherently destructive to the environment. Secretary of Agriculture Henry Wallace declared in 1934: “Probably the most damaging indictment that can be made of the capitalistic system is the way in which its emphasis on unfettered individualism results in exploitation of natural resources.” 

    But federal policy has been devoted to perpetually inflating crop prices regardless of damage to the environment or the economy. In 1936, the Supreme Court struck down the Agricultural Adjustment Act (AAA), which boosted crop prices by paying farmers to idle land, as unconstitutional. A few weeks after the Supreme Court ruling, Congress enacted the Soil Conservation and Domestic Allotment Act to pay farmers for reducing their acreage of “soil-depleting” crops – which by amazing coincidence turned out to be the same crops government planners sought to restrict. Paying farmers purportedly to conserve soil was much more politically defensible than paying farmers not to work. 

    Politicians continued to set price supports far above market levels, causing crop surpluses that the government struggled to hide, dump, or suppress. In 1956, the Eisenhower administration launched the Soil Bank to pay for long-term acreage reduction. The program quickly flopped; Time magazine commented that it had “once more proved that, barring police-state controls, farmers will always outsmart bureaucrats.” The Soil Bank was abolished in 1965.

    In the 1970s and early 1980s, the USDA earned the nickname, “Uncle Sam, Super Sodbuster.” Between 1977 and 1982, almost 4 million acres of relatively low-quality land were plowed up. Many of the newly plowed acres were born-again cropland that the USDA paid farmers to retire into grassland in the 1940s in response to the Dust Bowl. USDA Secretary John Block complained in 1984 that federal farm programs “encouraged farmers to tear up the cover crop on erodible soil ahead of schedule to provide a crop history” to collect subsidies. Deputy Assistant Secretary Richard Siegel observed that “there is a direct connection between the degradation of the fragile soil and the wheat price supports.” 

    Rather than fixing the problem by ending subsidies that rewarded farmers for plowing up fragile land, Congress instead created a new subsidy program to pay farmers not to plant. The Conservation Reserve Program, launched in 1985, paid farmers to idle tens of millions of acres of farmland for ten years. The CRP often paid double or triple the prevailing local rental rate to reward farmers for shutting down their farms. In Missouri, the CRP disrupted land values so badly that rocky, craggy ground became worth more than good farmland. Though farmland mortgages are routinely stretched out over 30 years, USDA’s ten annual CRP rental payments exceeded the total value of the land for over half of all CRP land. The CRP became an early retirement program for many farmers, allowing them to shut down their businesses and move to Florida. Most of the land enrolled in the CRP could have been farmed with little or no environmental harm.

    The CRP ravaged the economies in much of rural America. Sen. Kent Conrad (D-ND) complained that the CRP has “absolutely wiped out small town after small town as we took land out of production.” A 1995 University of Minnesota study concluded that USDA acreage-idling programs such as the CRP had directly reduced rural population by one-third since 1950. The CRP hurt aspiring young farmers in many areas by creating a comparative shortage of farmland and artificially inflating rent.

    The Clinton administration believed the solution to CRP’s problems was to vastly expand the program. In 1997, the USDA announced that most of the cropland in the United States was in such bad shape that the government would consider paying to shut it down. Secretary of Agriculture Dan Glickman bragged, “This is the most profound conservation program in the history of the United States of America.” The Associated Press inadvertently captured the new policy’s irony: “Up to 240 million acres, two-thirds of the nation’s farmland, will be eligible for the Conservation Reserve Program under the new rules, which are intended to target the most environmentally sensitive land.” How much targeting occurred if most of the cropland in the country was eligible? But that was typical of how farm programs were designed to maximize the number of handout recipients. Kendell Keith, president of the National Grain and Feed Association, said that the USDA “grossly exaggerated” the number of highly erodible acres it enrolled in the CRP and blamed the program for “the 15 percent decline in U.S. wheat export market share.”

    Any marginal environmental benefit the CRP conveyed was swamped by the perverse incentives of other federal policies. A 2007 Government Accountability Office report found that tens of millions of acres of fragile grasslands had been converted to cropland in the prior decades thanks to lavish crop subsidies. GAO concluded, “Farm program payments provide significant incentive to convert grassland to cropland because they increased the expected profitability of farming while lowering the associated risks.” Many farmers sodbusted poor-quality grasslands solely to qualify for federal disaster or crop insurance payments when their crops failed. Some farmers plowed worthless land, seeded from an airplane, and collected government payments when the crop inevitably failed.

    Politicians’ pious prattle about conserving fragile grasslands was irrelevant compared to the impact of federal ethanol mandates, which sent corn prices through the roof. Farmers planted 14 million more acres of corn in 2007 than in 2006. By 2016, almost half the corn crop was devoted to ethanol – which remained politically popular even though it boosts smog, damages gasoline engines, and sows starvation in poor nations by driving up food prices. 

    As part of the “America the Beautiful” campaign, the Biden administration is expanding the Conservation Reserve Program. USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack declared, “With CRP, the United States has one of the world’s most successful voluntary conservation programs.” But Vilsack, a former Iowa governor, is one of the biggest ethanol zealots in the land, who portrays it as aggie holy water. The Biden administration is expected to mandate greater use of ethanol in fuel, thereby likely spurring more grassland conversion to cropland regardless of the administration’s rhetorical emissions.  

    Property and Environment Research Center president Brian Yablonski labeled Biden’s “30 by 30” plan as “the president’s eco moonshot.” Many farmers and other rural Americans fear being in the moonshot’s crosshairs. Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) said, “this is the No. 1 emotional issue out there… You talk about upsetting people, start messing with their property rights.” Rep. Pete Stauber, (R-MN), warned that “Biden’s 30 by 30 agenda means further extending federal control into our way of life.” 

    Biden’s “30 by 30” program may be another in a long series of command-and-control interventions that presumes the feds must forcibly intervene to prevent landowners from committing economic suicide. But private owners have a much better record of caretaking land than does the U.S. Forest Service, the Bureau of Land Management, or other bureaucratic monoliths. 

    Biden’s “30 by 30” will likely become simply another pork barrel environmental program which deluges their friends and donors with subsidies. But there is no reason to expect “America the Beautiful” to be less of a debacle than FDR’s farm programs, Eisenhower’s Soil Bank, or the Conservation Reserve Program. If political hot air was all that was required to achieve “America the Beautiful,” the United States would have become paradise long ago.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 05/11/2021 – 22:45

  • (Do Not) Let The Games Begin!
    (Do Not) Let The Games Begin!

    Could Japan still cancel the Tokyo Olympics over COVID?

    As Statista’s Felix Richter notes, recent comments from Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga have driven speculation that the Summer Games could be called off. As COVID-19 infections rise in Japan, public support for the Games continues to drop.

    Just around 70 days ahead of the Games’ opening date, a poll conducted by TBS News found that 65 percent of Japanese wanted the Games cancelled or postponed again, with 37 percent voting to scrap the event altogether and 28 percent calling for another delay.

    Japan has extended the state of emergency in Tokyo and three other areas until the end of May and is struggling to contain a surge of COVID-19 cases, raising questions about whether the Games should go ahead. Japan’s vaccination rate is also the lowest among wealthy nations.

    The Olympic Games, which were already delayed by a year due to the pandemic, are set to open on July 23, with the International Olympic Committee (IOC) and organisers insisting that measures will be put in place to ensure the safety of athletes and visitors.

    As the following chart shows, the Summer Olympics have only been cancelled three times in the modern era dating back to 1896.

    Infographic: (Do Not) Let the Games Begin! | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    The 1916 games in Berlin fell victim to World War I and the 1940 and 1944 games, scheduled to be held in Helsinki and London, respectively, were cancelled due to World War II. Interestingly, the 2016 Rio games were also clouded by a health crisis, as many athletes refused to participate due to the ongoing outbreak of the Zika virus.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 05/11/2021 – 22:25

  • Penn State Administrator Who Failed To Report Sandusky Sex Crimes With Minors Received $330,699 Public Pension
    Penn State Administrator Who Failed To Report Sandusky Sex Crimes With Minors Received $330,699 Public Pension

    By Adam Andzejewski of OpenTheBooks.com, submitted by RealClearPolicy.com,

    In 2001, Gary Schultz was Penn State’s senior vice president for finance and business when he was told that assistant football coach Jerry Sandusky had sexually assaulted a boy in the school’s locker room shower.

    But neither he nor any other Penn State administrators who were told about the incident reported it to law enforcement, childcare, or youth services.

    Schultz was charged with perjury and failing to report to authorities allegations of sexual contact with a minor. However, he retired from Penn State and collected a $330,699 annual pension.

    He plead guilty to endangering the welfare of children in March 2017, was sent to jail and released in September 2017.

    Schultz was given a six-to-23-month sentence, with only the first two months in jail and the remainder on house arrest, followed by probation.

    While Pennsylvania has a pension forfeiture law that strips pensions from public employees convicted of job-related crimes, Schultz’s crime fell between the cracks, allowing him to continue collecting his $330,669 yearly pension.

    Sandusky is serving a 30-60-year prison sentence after his conviction on 45 counts of sexually abusing young boys from 1994 to 2009 through the charity he founded, The Second Mile, to serve Pennsylvania’s underprivileged and at-risk youth.

    Sandusky “retired” and received a $58,600 public pension – that continues to this day.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 05/11/2021 – 22:05

  • Goldman Scrambles To Comfort Its Clients Who Are Freaking Out About China's Soaring Prices
    Goldman Scrambles To Comfort Its Clients Who Are Freaking Out About China’s Soaring Prices

    It’s hardly a secret that commodity and raw material prices in China have been soaring: this was confirmed by last night’s April PPI inflation print which surprised the market to the upside and reached 6.8% Y/Y, the highest since 2017.

    The frenzy culminated with Monday’s 10% one-day jump in iron ore prices which, as Goldman’s China strategist Hui Shan wrote this morning, “brought many questions from clients regarding the impact of upstream price increases on the Chinese economy and monetary policy” especially when it comes to the threat risk of tighter monetary policy/rate hike by the PBOC.

    So to address these growing concerns that China may be in the early stages of commodity hyperinflation, Goldman addresses these questions below in collaboration with its commodities strategists.

    Q: Is China demand as strong as the commodity prices suggest?

    Based on our reading of both macro data (e.g., PMI and exports) as well as micro data (e.g., steel consumption and air pollution), we think on-the-ground demand remains solid. Our equity analysts’ channel checks confirm stable infrastructure and property activity and resilient auto and appliance production in April. However, it is important to emphasize that China’s role in the commodity market has changed somewhat from previous years in three ways.

    First, we have seen manufacturing outperforming infrastructure and property investment in China, which is also consistent with the fact that prices of flat steel (mostly used in manufacturing) outperform those of long steel (mostly used in construction). And the key source of manufacturing strength is strong external demand, which in turn was driven by economic re-opening after mass vaccination and significant monetary and fiscal support overseas. Therefore, as our commodity strategists have argued, the incremental demand for commodities currently comes from ex-China.

    Second, changes in China supply outlook play an important role. Tightened steel capacity swap rules and the anti-corruption campaign in the coal industry of Inner Mongolia have added supply pressure during a time when demand is strong. China’s commitment to “Carbon Neutral 2060”, which our equity analysts expect to generate profound impacts on upstream industries, further signals to the market that China’s supply of high-emission products such as steel, aluminum and cement is unlikely to respond to higher prices.

    Third, geopolitical tensions introduce risk premium and complicate the picture. The most recent example is the announcement by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) to suspend indefinitely all activities under the China-Australia Strategic Economic Dialogue. Although little details were provided and our ANZ economics team believes tariffs or restrictions on iron ore are very unlikely given China’s heavy reliance on Australian supply, the news may have contributed to the latest market moves given the inbound questions that we received on the headline.

    Bottom line: China demand appears robust in level terms, but we do not think the latest commodity price increases indicate China’s commodity demand is accelerating.

    Q: What near-term responses can we expect from Chinese policymakers?

    Chinese policymakers have taken notice of the sharply rising upstream price inflation. For example, at the Financial Stability and Development Committee meeting chaired by Vice Premier Liu He on April 8, policymakers stated the need to “keep prices stable” and to “closely monitor commodity prices”. On April 9, Premier Li Keqiang hosted a meeting with economists and entrepreneurs where Premier Li called for “strengthening the management of raw materials markets” and “alleviating the cost pressure on businesses”.

    The challenge from a policy perspective is that at the same point Beijing desires lower commodity prices, they are also focused on achieving their de-carbonization targets by restraining metals supply in sectors with significant spare capacity, relative low value, and high carbon footprint (e.g., aluminum and steel in particular). Policy induced constraints on both current and forward supply act as tightening effects on underlying balances and support price. Moreover, in an environment of both strong domestic and external demand as is currently the case, such supply cuts provide even greater price effect. Until there is a material deceleration in demand conditions to moderate current tightness across the majority of industrial commodities, the ability to sustainably restrain price dynamics is limited.

    In regard to actual policy tools to alleviate the pain on downstream manufacturers, so far there have been a few channels of attempted influence by Chinese policymakers. The first is to reduce other types of costs faced by businesses. We think recent announcements on cutting taxes and fees fall into this category. Second, policymakers can encourage imports and discourage exports to help meet domestic demand. For example, the Ministry of Finance has removed the export tax rebate on 146 steel products effective May 1. Third, the government can deploy strategic reserves of commodities. And lastly, regulators have urged commodities futures exchanges to curb speculative activities.

    Bottom line: Although some measures are available to policymakers to temporarily alleviate pressures, the fundamental supply and demand tightness is more difficult to address.

    Q: What is the impact of higher upstream prices on China growth and inflation?

    Rising prices are the mechanism through which the market finds a new equilibrium by destroying demand and/or incentivizing supply. The degree to which each of the two margins of adjustment happens depends on supply and demand elasticities. So far there has been little evidence of end-demand destruction at current price levels in the available China macro and micro data. However, one trend which has emerged from late Q1 onward is a phase of downstream metal destocking. This has been best demonstrated by the negative metals apparent demand growth rates in April after strong year-over-year growth in Q1. We believe this reflects essentially a temporary buyer strike, where downstream consumers destock inventory until they have to return to market given end-demand requirements. This trend could temporarily soften metal physical markets, although raw material stock levels suggest this should abate into Q3.

    The potential for supply-side responses are limited by Beijing’s de-carbonization policy emphasis. In the short run, whilst there exists some spare capacity flex in the system, a combination of weak processing margins (e.g., copper, zinc) or policy constraints at a provincial level (e.g., aluminum smelting in Inner Mongolia and steel mills in Tangshan) offer headwinds to any output acceleration. At the margin we do expect some improvement in secondary based metals production from scrap, though the volumes will be limited in aggregate. The risk of net supply capacity additions from here is low particularly in the aluminum and steel (blast furnace) sectors. A hard cap on aluminum capacity will be hit this year after which only swaps will be allowed. For steel, a recent tightening in blast furnace capacity swap rules (1.5:1 old for new swap ratio) limits any expansion potential beyond shifts to electric arc furnace (EAF).

    While higher inputs costs are impacting gross margins in some industries including auto, historical experience suggests that downstream profits at the aggregate level do not suffer greatly when upstream prices increase, likely due to the relatively small raw material share of total costs and producers’ ability to improve efficiency and/or pass some of the higher costs onto end-consumers. That said, the COVID shock is like no other, and we may see significant demand destruction if prices move higher for longer, particularly when supply has become much less responsive to price signals than before because of longer-term trends such as de-carbonization.

    In previous research, we have found that PPI inflation only affects non-food goods in CPI and the pass-through is far from complete. Given the softening food price inflation on pork cycle and the muted service inflation on both economic slack and government policies aimed at reducing housing and medical costs faced by consumers, we think CPI inflation is likely to remain subdued even as PPI inflation reaches a multi-year-high.

    Bottom line: The impact of higher commodity prices and upstream producer prices on Chinese growth and CPI inflation looks limited thus far.

    Q: Will the upstream price inflation cause the PBOC to tighten monetary policy?

    In the Q4 PBOC Monetary Policy Report, the central bank characterized the high PPI inflation and low CPI inflation as driven by “temporary factors”. The Q1 PBOC survey of urban depositors showed inflation expectations remained subdued among consumers. In April, Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Wang Yiming discussed the rebound in oil and metals prices and highlighted the need to “avoid strengthening inflation expectations.” Overall, the central bank appears to be paying closer attention to upstream price pressures and inflation expectations over the past few months.

    On the other hand, interbank liquidity has been kept ample and 7-day repo rate has stayed below the policy rate of 2.2%, suggesting little signs of policy tightening on the back of sharply rising upstream prices. The lack of response from the central bank makes economic sense because the root cause of the latest commodity price rally is not China demand. As discussed earlier, stronger ex-China demand and supply concerns have played a bigger role in driving the market higher. If this diagnosis is indeed correct, then tightening monetary policy in China would not be an effective solution. If anything, the demand destruction impact of higher input costs may argue for accommodative monetary policy to offset the overall burdens on businesses as long as inflation expectations remain anchored.

    Bottom line: We do not expect the PBOC to tighten monetary policy on higher upstream prices.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 05/11/2021 – 21:45

  • The American Cyber Stasi Will Suppress All Digital Dissent In Biden's Dystopia
    The American Cyber Stasi Will Suppress All Digital Dissent In Biden’s Dystopia

    Authored by Andrew Korybko via OneWorld.press,

    CNN’s recent report that the US’ security services are considering contracting the services of so-called “researchers” as a legal workaround for spying on average Americans confirms that Biden’s dystopian hellhole is rapidly moving in the direction of establishing a “Cyber Stasi” for suppressing all digital dissent against the Democrats as they continuing consolidating their de facto one-party rule of the country.

    The dystopian hellhole that I predicted would become a fait accompli following Biden’s confirmation as President by the Electoral College is quickly becoming a reality after CNN’s recent report that the US’ security services are considering contracting the services of so-called “researchers” as a legal workaround for spying on average Americans. According to the outlet, these ostensibly independent contractors would be charged with infiltrating the social media circles of white supremacists and other supposedly terrorist-inclined domestic forces within the country. The report claims that the intent is to “help provide a broad picture of who was perpetuating the ‘narratives’ of concern”, after which “the FBI could theoretically use that pool of information to focus on specific individuals if there is enough evidence of a potential crime to legally do so”.

    In other words, the US’ security services essentially want to establish a “Cyber Stasi” of “fellow” citizens who spy on one another and produce purported “evidence” of “potential crimes” for “justifying” the FBI’s “legal” investigations. CNN quoted an unnamed senior intelligence official who asked, “What do you do about ideology that’s leading to violence? Do you have to wait until it leads to violence?”, thereby hinting that this initiative might likely be exploited to stop so-called “pre-crime”, or crimes before they occur. Put another way, even those average Americans who practice their constitutionally enshrined right to the freedom of speech to peacefully dissent against the Democrats’ consolidation of their de facto one-party rule of the country might find themselves targeted by the security services depending on how the contracted “researchers” spin their words.

    It should be remembered that even Americans’ constitutionally enshrined right to the freedom of assembly is nowadays under scrutiny depending on the stated reason behind their planned peaceful protests if they dare to propose gathering in opposition to last year’s alleged voter fraud for example. The events of 6 January were exploited as a game-changer by the security services in order to restrict Americans’ freedoms. It’s neither here nor there whether one sincerely believes that the election was stolen since the purpose in pointing these double standards out is to prove that average Americans are being politically discriminated against with the implied threat of legal intimidation when it comes to exercising their constitutional rights about “politically incorrect” issues of concern to them.

    Although the reported purpose of the “Cyber Stasi” is to preemptively thwart emerging domestic terrorist plots, it can’t be discounted that the combination of political Russophobia and “mission creep” will combine to create additional objectives such as stopping the spread of so-called “Russian disinformation” throughout society. That phrase is actually just a euphemism for “politically incorrect” facts and interpretations thereof that contradict the Democrats’ official narrative of events, being intentionally vague enough to function as an umbrella under which to cover practically every alternative understanding possible. With this in mind, those average Americans who dare to share something “politically incorrect” – even in private chats amidst the presence of “deep state” infiltrators (“researchers” employed as “Cyber Stasi”) – might be targeted by the FBI.

    The end effect is that the US’ security services might succeed in suppressing most expressions of digital dissent in the coming future. They’re inspired to do so by the ruling administration which wants to impose a syncretic system of economic leftism and social fascism onto the country. It’s not “communist” in the sense that the economic vision is more akin to state capitalism than traditional Marxism, but the social impact will certainly mirror that of East Germany during its darkest days of Stasi rule, though that’s precisely why many critics casually describe it as “communist” despite that not being economically correct (at least not yet). The US’ “researcher”-contracted “Cyber Stasi” will have a chilling effect how Americans interact with one another from here on out, all in order for Biden’s dystopian hellhole to avoid the fate of its predecessor, East Germany.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 05/11/2021 – 21:25

  • China Sees Slowest Population Growth In Decades Raising Concerns About Aging Labor Force
    China Sees Slowest Population Growth In Decades Raising Concerns About Aging Labor Force

    A few weeks ago, we reported that China, the world’s largest country, reported a shrinking population for the first time in 70+ years, a sign that the global economy might struggle with long-term structural deflation as the population across the developed world shrinks.

    But according to the latest census data released Tuesday by China’s National Bureau of Statistics, China reported only 12 million births last year, the lowest annual reading since 1961, and down 18% from 2019.

    Looking back at the last 10 years, China’s population increased by just 72 million people (between 2010 and 2020) bringing the country’s total population to 1.41 billion. That breaks down to an average annual growth rate of just 0.53%, slower than the 0.57% seen in 2010, according to the FT.

    Infographic: China Experiences Slowest Population Growth In Decades | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    As analysts studied the data,  Nikkei reported that the declining population growth reflects China’s “failure of policies designed to reverse China’s falling birth rate. The rate of increase is the lowest since China first conducted a census in 1953. The fastest growth was the 2.09% recorded in the 1982 census.”

    Infographic: Births Plummet In China As Population Growth Stalls | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Unsurprisingly, the declining birth rate shows that China’s average age has increased substantially, posing a demographic crisis similar to what’s being experienced in Japan. People over the age of 65 now make up 13.5% of the population, compared with 8.9% back in 2010, when the previous census data was published. Meanwhile, the working-age population of people aged between 15 and 59 declined to 63.35% from 70.14%.

    Ning Jizhe, the director of the NBS, told the FT that China’s democratic crisis actually doesn’t seem so bad when compared with the US, which has an average age of 38.8 years, compared with China’s 38 years. Still, “the further ageing of the population imposed continued pressure on the long-term balanced development of the population in the coming period.”

    Source: Nikkei

    But Ning noted that an aging population will likely be a salient feature of China’s demographic trends for years

    “The proportion of the elderly population is rising fast, and aging will become the basic characteristic of our country in the future,” said Ning.

    Even after Beijing scrapped its controversial one-child policy in favor of a “two child policy” a few years back, China’s fertility rate – which measures how many children the average female will have in her lifetime – is still a paltry 1.3, below the ~2+ level needed for population replacement.

    But falling birth rates weren’t the only problem plaguing China’s cities. Another issue seen in more than a dozen cities, especially in China’s north-eastern provinces, is that an exodus of younger workers seeking opportunities in more “economically vibrant” regions (or perhaps even abroad) is adding further pressure in local labor markets.

    Looking back, China’s population added 5.8% in the decade to 2010 and grew by double-digit percentage amounts between each of the previous censuses, which were held in 1953, 1964, 1982, 1990 and 2000.

    Source: Nikkei

    Such a shift will have a major impact on what economists call “the dependency ratio”, which refers to the burden shouldered by workers for caring for children and the elderly.

    Goldman analysts broke it down in a chart.

    Source: Goldman Sachs

    To be sure, while China’s population growth is slowing, it’s still in a better position than other developed Asian economies like Japan and South Korea.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 05/11/2021 – 21:05

  • Japanese Investors Panic After Stocks Tumble And BOJ Does Not Buy ETFs
    Japanese Investors Panic After Stocks Tumble And BOJ Does Not Buy ETFs

    Something took place on Tuesday that has happened just once since 2016: Japan’s Topix index (which is widely viewed as more representative of Japanese equities than the Nikkei) tumbled by 2% in the morning session…. and the BOJ did not intervene.

    Why is this notable? Because – in a world where everyone is now completely used to Plunge Protection Teams and central bank bailouts as if it is a perfectly expected event –  this was only the second time since at least 2016 that the Bank of Japan did not make an ETF purchase after the Topix fell more than 1% in the morning session. The only other time? April 21, when the Topix also tumbled 2% in the morning session and the BOJ was nowhere to be seen.

    To be sure, the BOJ’s lack of intervention was to be expected: as a reminder, the central bank tweaked its ETF purchase program at the March meeting, with changes that came into effect in April. As part of its policy review, the BOJ on March 19 said it would buy ETFs as needed, scrapping the previously 6T yen annual target, but keeping its 12T yen upper limit on purchases

    Until last month, the largest drop the BOJ would tolerate without buying ETFs was the 0.89% full-day decline on Feb. 24; In other words, any time the Topix would drop by 1% or more, the BOJ would step in or else there would be a market crash. Furthermore, before this year, the BOJ typically bought if the Topix fell more than 0.5% in the morning session.

    This changed on April 20, when the Topix tumbled more than 2% in the morning session and contrary to trader expectations that they would get bailed out, the BOJ did not intervene, and led to a panicked stock dump in the morning of April 21, at which point the BOJ had no choice – it had to buy ot else it would suffer a far worse crash. And buy it did, purchasing 70.1b yen on April 21, the day after it so miserly withheld its bailout of Mrs Watanabe.

    As Bloomberg notes, “today’s lack of action by the central bank may further fuel speculation that the bank will only step in if the drop in the AM session exceeds 2%; previously the bank had bought after a 0.5% decline.”

    So keep a close eye on Japanese stocks, where frentic investors will likely test the BOJ’s resolve again by dumping stocks if only to test the new level of the “Kuroda Put.” And woe to Japan if there is a second 2% – or bigger – drop in a row in the Topix and still no BOJ bailout.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 05/11/2021 – 20:45

  • World's Most Vaccinated Nation Sees Active COVID Cases Double In Under A Week
    World’s Most Vaccinated Nation Sees Active COVID Cases Double In Under A Week

    The situation in the Seychelles, an island nation that has suffered from a recent surge in COVID-19 cases despite boasting the world’s highest vaccination rate, is going from bad to worse.

    Since we last reported on the Seychelles one week ago, the island nation has faced a fresh surge in COVID cases.

    The vaccine failure cannot be determined without a detailed assessment, said the WHO. The hike in coronavirus cases has stoked concerns that the jabs might not be helping to suppress the island nation’s COVID-19 outbreak. A vaccine failure can’t be determined without a detailed study by the WHO, however.

    Presently, the health body is in direct communication with Seychelles and working on evaluating the situation, said Kate O’Brien, director of the WHO’s department of immunization, vaccines and biologicals at a briefing on May 10.

    The Indian Ocean archipelago nation started vaccinations in January when it introduced the Chinese-developed Sinopharm vaccine. It administered Chinese vaccine shots to 57% of those who were fully inoculated and the rest received vaccines that were made in India.

    Since last week, the number of active coronavirus cases has more than doubled to 2,486 people. Of these, 37 percent of the population have received both the vaccine doses, as per the report.

    Due to the surge in COVID-19 cases, Seychelles re-imposed curbs last week, including closing schools, canceling sports events and banning mingling of households.

    Seychelles’ first two positive cases of COVID-19 were confirmed on March 14, 2020. The two individuals were a couple from Seychelles who had returned from a trip to Italy. Aftre this, the country imposed a nationwide lockdown in which most shops, businesses and schools were closed for 21 days in April. The airport was also closed and ships were prevented from bringing tourists.

    Finally, with the outbreak threatening to scuttle the island nation’s critical upcoming summer tourism season, Seychelles President Wavel Ramkalawan insisted that the island is safe for visiting tourists.

    Still, the fact that so many residents are being reinfected with COVID despite being fully vaxxed is raising questions about the efficacy of the Chinese and Indian-made jabs.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 05/11/2021 – 20:25

  • Is 'GosFed' Looming At The Eccles Building?
    Is ‘GosFed’ Looming At The Eccles Building?

    Via The American Institute for Economic Research,

    Economist Judy Shelton had a crackerjack column in last week’s Wall Street Journal on the lack of intellectual and policy diversity at the Federal Reserve. She points out that during the entire term of Chairman Jerome Powell and his predecessor, Janet Yellen, not a single dissenting vote was recorded among the governors. It reminds us of the central bank of the Soviet Union.

    Is that what we want – GosFed? That’s our jibe, not Ms. Shelton’s. It’s a play on Gosbank, for Gosudarstvenny Bank, the name of the Soviet central bank. It’s not our intention to suggest that our Fed or anyone associated with it is a communist. All the more mystifying, though, is the absence of dissent among GosFed governors, particularly when a new administration is readying vast new spending.

    It “may surprise people to learn,” Ms. Shelton writes, “that not a single dissenting vote was cast by any member of the Fed’s Board of Governors throughout the eight monetary-policy meetings in 2020 and the three meetings held so far this year. The same is true for 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015 and 2014, covering Mr. Powell’s years as Fed chairman and the entire term of his predecessor, Janet Yellen.”

    “No Fed governor,” Ms. Shelton adds, “cast a dissenting vote from the Fed chair at any monetary policy meeting held throughout that time.” Presidents of regional Fed banks have during this period done some dissenting in the open market committee, but no break by a Fed governor with the chairman has fetched up on our scope in recent years.

    It’s all the more powerful a point if one considers the unprecedented growth of the Fed balance sheet, which is now something like $7.8 trillion. Most of the securities that make up that debt, even if acquired on the open market, are obligations of the government of which the Fed is a part. That, incidentally, is how GosBank worked. Ms. Shelton wrote a warning about that, too, and also in the Wall Street Journal.

    That piece, issued in July 2012, was called “The Soviet Banking System — and Ours.” Ms. Shelton wrote that “[u]nder Soviet accounting practices, the true gap between concurrent revenues generated by the economy and the expenditures needed to sustain the nation was obscured by a phantom ‘plug’ figure that ostensibly reflected the working capital furnished by the Soviet central bank, Gosbank.”

    That is, as she puts it at one point, “The Soviet central bank was making up for the difference between government revenues and government expenditures by creating empty credits to be disbursed by central-planning bureaucrats.”

    When Mikhail Gorbachev acceded to party boss in 1985, Ms. Shelton writes, the budget deficit the central bank was covering was more than 30% of total government expenditures.

    Neither Ms. Shelton, as we read her pieces, nor we are suggesting the American economy is at quite that point or is false in the sense that the Soviet Union’s was. The system of having the Gosbank create money to fund the state, though, didn’t turn out so well. It’s getting harder by the year to see, as well, how the GosFed is going to come out whole in the end as well.

    It’s maddening to see the Fed governors plunge down this road without recorded dissent. We made this point when the Democrats on the Senate Banking Committee were maneuvering to block Ms. Shelton’s nomination to a Fed governorship because she isn’t a “mainstream” economist. So did the Wall Street Journal. As did James Grant, who in 2016 wrote about a call by Democrats for more diversity at the Fed.

    Mr. Grant, in his Interest Rate Observer, noted that what the solons — including, among others, Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren — wanted was diversity in race and gender on the mostly male and white Fed boards. Mr. Grant focused on “the kind of diversity that would leave the monetary establishment constructively rattled” — governors and economists who would question 21st century monetary dogma.

    That question looms today at not only the Fed. We now have, in Janet Yellen, a former chairwoman of the Fed as Treasury Secretary. Dissent is also scant between the Fed and Treasury, as we launch these multi-trillion-dollar commitments. It’s easy to see why the comrades of Gosbank showed so little dissent. Say, or think, the wrong thing in the Soviet Union, and you risked a one-way ticket to Siberia. What in the world is GosFed’s excuse?

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 05/11/2021 – 20:05

  • Wild Tiger On The Loose In Houston Area Belongs To Murder Suspect Out On Bond Since 2017
    Wild Tiger On The Loose In Houston Area Belongs To Murder Suspect Out On Bond Since 2017

    A tiger that was seen roaming loose in a Houston area neighborhood over the weekend has yet to be located – but its owner has been identified and arrested.

    The exotic animal reportedly belongs to a man named Victor Cuevas, who was out of jail on bond on an “unrelated murder charge”, according to local ABC affiliates. “Cuevas is accused of shooting and killing a man in July 2017 and is out on a $125,000 bond,” the report reads.

    Go figure.

    Cuevas “is known to possess several exotic animals”, the report reads. Authorities took Cuevas into custody at his mother’s house on Monday, the same day he was supposed to turn himself in to the Harris County jail. Cuevas evaded police on Sunday and was also charged with felony evading arrest, as a result. 

    Cuevas’ lawyer, Michael Elliot, wasn’t thrilled about his client being apprehended on the same day he was supposedly planning to turn himself in. Elliot said: “Fifteen minutes before he leaves to surrender, (HPD) go and arrest him, and the result is they get to keep him there for 10 days now.”

    Paying adage to the famous “I was just holding it for a friend” defense, Elliot also maintains that the tiger doesn’t belong to Cuevas, but rather that he simply “knows the owner”. 

    “There’s a lot of misunderstandings and miscommunications and a lot of things put out there falsely that’s very troubling. First off, The Houston Police Department here. I know they’re trying to do their job. Everyone wants to know about the tiger and their safety. Make no mistake, there’s no crime of having a tiger in the state of Texas,” he said.

    However, ABC reviewed Cuevas’ Instagram and found he was “no stranger” to exotic animals:

    The videos show him playing with a baby bear, feeding it with a bottle, and giving the bear kisses in his home. There are also videos of at least two monkeys. Cuevas is seen taking one monkey with him while he was having dental work done, and taking another monkey to a convenience store, where the clerk was not pleased. In addition, several videos show Cuevas cuddling with a young tiger.

    Police had responded to a call about the tiger on Sunday. HPD Commander Ron Borza said: “The owner put the tiger in a white SUV and drove off from the scene, there was a brief pursuit, and the man got away with the tiger. My main concern right now is focused on finding him, and finding the tiger, because what I don’t want him to do is harm the tiger. We have plenty of places where we can take the tiger and he can spend the rest of his life.”

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    Cuevas’ neighbor, Jose Ramos, said: “I did notice one time, and this is something interesting, that I was walking by my driveway. There was a capuchin monkey that showed up in the window. I figured, ‘OK, this is a small animal. It could be domesticated.’ But I never thought they would hold a tiger in their house.”

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 05/11/2021 – 19:45

  • Professor Explains Flaw In Many Models Used For COVID-19 Lockdown Policies
    Professor Explains Flaw In Many Models Used For COVID-19 Lockdown Policies

    Authored by Andrew Chen via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Economics professor Doug Allen wanted to know why so many early models used to create COVID-19 lockdown policies turned out to be highly incorrect. What he found was that a great majority were based on false assumptions and “tended to over-estimate the benefits and under-estimate the costs.” He found it troubling that policies such as total lockdowns were based on those models.

    “They were built on a set of assumptions. Those assumptions turned out to be really important, and the models are very sensitive to them, and they turn out to be false,” said Allen, the Burnaby Mountain Professor of Economics at Simon Fraser University, in an interview.

    People walk past empty patios in Jacques Cartier Square in Montreal on May 7, 2021. (The Canadian Press/Ryan Remiorz)

    Allen says most of the early cost-benefit studies that he reviewed didn’t try to distinguish between mandated and voluntary changes in people’s behaviour in the face of a pandemic. Rather, they just assumed an exponential growth of cases of infection day after day until herd immunity is reached.

    In a paper he published in April, in which he compiled his findings based on a review of over 80 papers on the effects of lockdowns around the world, Allen concluded that lockdowns may be one of “the greatest peacetime policy failures in Canada’s history.”

    He says many of the studies early in the pandemic assumed that human behaviour changes only as a result of state-mandated intervention, such as the closing of schools and non-essential businesses, mask and social distancing orders, and restrictions on private social gatherings.

    However, they didn’t take into consideration people’s voluntary behavioural changes in response to the virus threat, which have a major impact on evaluating the merits of a lockdown policy.

    “Human beings make choices, and we respond to the environment that we’re in, [but] these early models did not take this into account,” Allen said. “If there’s a virus around, I don’t go to stores often. If I go to a store, I go to a store that doesn’t have me meeting so many people. If I do meet people, I tend to still stand my distance from them. You don’t need lockdowns to induce people to behave that way.”

    Allen’s own cost-benefit analysis is based on the calculation of “life-years saved,” which determines “how many years of lost life will have been caused by the various harms of lockdowns versus how many years of lost life were saved by lockdowns.”

    Based on his lost-life calculation, lockdown measures have caused 282 times more harm than benefit to Canadian society over the long term, or 282 times more life years lost than saved.

    Furthermore, “The limited effectiveness of lockdowns explains why, after one year, the unconditional cumulative deaths per million, and the pattern of daily deaths per million, is not negatively correlated with the stringency of lockdown across countries,” writes Allen. In other words, in his assessment, heavy lockdowns do not meaningfully reduce the number of deaths in the areas where they are implemented, when compared to areas where lockdowns were not implemented or as stringent.

    Today, some 14 months into the pandemic, many jurisdictions across Canada are still following the same policy trajectory outlined at the beginning of the pandemic. Allen attributes this to politics.

    He says that politicians often take credit for having achieved a reduction in case numbers through their lockdown measures.

    “I think it makes perfect sense why they do exactly what they did last year,” Allen said.

    “If you were a politician, would you say, ‘We’re not going to lock down because it doesn’t make a difference, and we actually did the equivalent of killing 600,000 people this last year.’”

    You wouldn’t, he said, because “the alternative is they [politicians] have to admit that they made a mistake, and they caused … multiple more loss of life years than they saved.”

    Allen laments that media for the most part have carried only one side of the debate on COVID-19 restrictions and haven’t examined the other side. Adding to the concern, he says, is that views contrary to the official government response are often pulled from social media platforms.

    He says he has heard that even his own published study has been censored by some social media sites.

    “In some sense these are private platforms. They can do what they want. But on the other hand, I feel kind of sad that we live in the kind of a world where posing opposing opinions is either dismissed, ignored, or … name-called, [and] in some ways cancelled,” Allen said.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 05/11/2021 – 19:25

  • NRA In Peril After Judge Rejects Bankruptcy Filing
    NRA In Peril After Judge Rejects Bankruptcy Filing

    The NRA was dealt a serious blow on Tuesday after a Texas judge tossed the gun rights organization’s bid to declare bankruptcy, saying it was filed in “bad faith” in an effort to dodge litigation in New York.

    Judge Harlin Hale tossed the case after New York Attorney General Letitia James and others questioned how legitimate the January 15th bankruptcy filing was, according to a report by Law 360.

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    The group filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy after James filed a lawsuit to dissolve the NRA – alleging that the organization has abused its status as a nonprofit, along with corruption, and a “culture of self-dealing, mismanagement, and negligent oversight” fostered by longtime CEO Wayne LaPierre.

    The decision means that Hale will be able to more easily seize the NRA’s assets if she prevails in her New York lawsuit, where she argued that the group should be dissolved.

    According to bankruptcy filings, the organization has $50 million more assets than their debt load, making the financially solvent. In their bid to restructure and move to Texas, the NRA claimed that New York’s regulatory environment is corrupt. NRA attorneys accused James, a Democrat, of waging a political campaign against the organization – and argued that Texas would offer a ‘regulatory haven’ for the gun-rights group.

    Meanwhile, LaPierre faces additional litigation from James’ office, after the Wall Street Journal reported that the IRS is investigating him for potential criminal tax fraud.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 05/11/2021 – 19:05

  • Three Places Where "Permanently" Higher Inflation Could Come From
    Three Places Where “Permanently” Higher Inflation Could Come From

    Tomorrow we get a CPI number which according to consensus at least, will be historic: it will be the first 0.3% sequential increase in core (not the much higher headline) prices this century…

    … a talking point which will merely underscore the recent surge in inflation fears across both companies (who can pass these rising costs on to consumers)…

    … and consumers (who can’t).

    Yet while households are growing more convinced with each passing day that higher prices will stick, with the NY Fed’s latest survey of consumer expectations revealing that over the next year consumers anticipate gasoline prices jumping 9.18%, food prices gaining 5.79%, medical costs surging 9.13%, the price of a college education climbing 5.93%, and rent prices increasing 9.49%…

    … neither the Fed, nor sellside analysts are willing to concede as much yet. Take BofA’s chief economist Michelle Meyer, who expects core PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred measure, to peak at 2.3% this quarter, before settling back down to 1.9% by the end of 2021. Meyer then expects prices to trend slightly higher over the medium term, eventually surpassing the Fed’s target consistently enough (and in an environment of full employment) that interest rate hikes will be warranted, possibly not until the second half 2023.

    Needless to say, the market disagrees, and especially the bond market, where traders are pricing in far more inflation and faster Fed hikes than that. But, as BofA’s Jared Woodard notes, they often do, and are usually very early: as shown in the chart below, since 2007, rates implied by Fed funds futures have been, on average, 54bp higher than actual interest rates one year later.

    But maybe this time will be different? As Woodard counters, the challenge for those who expect permanently higher or harmful inflation is to explain where it will come from. In response, the BofA strategist says he can see three possible sources of “permanent” inflation, if no no plausible ones.

    1. Scarce goods

    In 2020, many firms cut capacity and reduced inventories, expecting a long recession. The faster rebound has meant shortages in lumber, corn, copper, etc. Some bottlenecks may lack quick fixes (e.g. semiconductors), but many others can be resolved.

    More importantly, whether necessitated by Covid or by the reorientation of supply chains toward reliable democracies, a period of higher capex should be tolerable. Many companies have proven pricing power, and in Q1, US corporate profit margins are at record highs.

    Scarce workers

    Woodard then predicts that there are also good reasons to think that any sharp surge in wages will end by Q4 for the following reasons:

    • Labor supply is set to rise sharply.
    • Generous unemployment insurance benefits expire in September,
    • children will return to public schools,
    • health concerns will be alleviated,
    • firms will be able to hire from a broader pool of remote workers.

    Indeed, we have 9.8 million unemployed workers and BofA economists expect an additional 2mm+ returning to the labor force by the fall, by which point the Biden unemployment checks will have expired. 

    Meanwhile, those widespread reports of employers offering hiring bonuses…

    … are a sign of a temporary mismatch, not an incipient spiral. “A bonus is not a raise”, according to BofA… although it’s a key part of one’s compensation – we wonder how many BofA bankers would work without one.

    In any case, BofA believes that a higher long-term trend in wage growth would be positive for GDP and productivity: of the firms that said they will not raise capex in the latest Duke CFO survey, 2/3 said it is because they “have no need to expand capacity.” Persistent higher demand is necessary for sustained corporate investment. It’s, therefore, hard even to imagine a wage-spiral tail risk according to Woodard who argues that it would take steady wage gains of 10-12% to push inflation to the levels of the 1970s & 80s…

    … and the US economy is structured very differently today. Non-elite unions are politically toothless. Technology penetrates every industry. The offshoring of more services is coming.

    Excess demand

    The last argument against persistent inflation is that there are also no signs of excess demand. The latest BofA consumer appears to affirm a “fiscal liquidity trap” thesis.

    • High-income households have excess savings, but history shows they don’t spend; and a chill in high-income spending is more likely in 2021 from the threat of higher taxes (Ricardian equivalence);
    • Low-income households received excess stimulus but their spending has already peaked (Exhibit 7) and <10% of new rounds of stimulus are being spent (Exhibit 8).

    While we are confident that many readers will disagree, Woodard concludes that “in sum, we expect high inflation levels to be transitory because structural deflationary forces are very strong, most supply shortages can be resolved, wage increases are modest (and helpful long-term in any case), and there is no evidence of excess demand.”

    * * *

    Bullshit, you say. Between the trillions in stimulus and the monetary pump, this time is different.

    Perhaps, but there is another problem: anyone wishing to hedge against soaring inflation faces a daunting high cost (one could almost say “inflationary” cost).

    As shown in the chart below, historical data show that a permanent portfolio allocation to inflation assets only hurts returns (unlike a deflationary bias). Allocating $1 in 1974 equally to a basket of commodities, gold, global value, and European equities – i.e. inflationary assets –  was worth $38 today; at the same time, an allocation to IG corporate bonds, Treasuries, US growth stocks, and the S&P 500 was worth $104.

    Curiously, even a tactical allocation imposes a significant cost unless timed perfectly. BofA economists expect 3.6% average inflation for Q2. Over the last 30 years, there were five occasions when CPI surged above that level (May’01, Sept’05, June’06, Oct’07, June’11).

    On average, investors who bought inflation assets on those triggers suffered losses over the next year: commodities -10%, value vs growth -2%, EU vs US equities -3% and cyclical vs defensives -1%. Only TIPS and small vs large saw positive average returns. And today, 10-year TIPS yield -0.93%, just 19bps from record lows.

    In conclusion, Woodard writes that “the best time to buy inflation protection would be after the next “natural” recession, not when inflation expectations are already at 13-year highs.”

    While that may true, one thing Woodard refuses to admit – or perhaps forgot to acknowledge – is that in a world where even the BIS admits it is in the business of manipulating gold lower, crypto has emerged as the best inflation hedge in the world. In that case, his entire argument about “expensive” inflation hedges can be thrown out, because one look at the return of bitcoin, ethereum, or the various DeFi tokens in the past year, and the conclusion is that the market is convinced that what is coming will make the Weimar and Zimbabwe hyperinflations seem like a walk in the park…

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 05/11/2021 – 18:45

  • Hedge Funds Descend On Puerto Rico As Biden Tax Threat Looms
    Hedge Funds Descend On Puerto Rico As Biden Tax Threat Looms

    With President Biden and the Democrats on the warpath to separate the richest Americans from their income, hedge funds managers are starting to expand into Puerto Rico – leaving open the possibility of relocating to the island to obtain huge tax breaks, according to Bloomberg.

    Both ExodusPoint Capital Management and Millennium Management have opened local subsidiaries on the island, according to local records. ExodusPoint, headed by Michael Gelband, created a money-management in Puerto Rico on behalf of co-founder Hyung Soon Yee, who moved there last year.

    Millennium, run by Izzy Englander, set up shop on the island just weeks after Biden won the 2020 US election.

    And with Biden’s proposed tax increases on the wealthy and corporations looming, those who venture to Puerto Rico may be able to avoid both state and federal taxes according to the report.

    The lure for would-be tax-savers is a pair of laws Puerto Rico enacted in 2012 to attract wealthy mainlanders: the Export Services Act and the Individual Investors Act. The latter is of particular interest to hedge fund managers because it exempts capital-gains taxes, including those levied on the performance fees that comprise the bulk of their compensation. In New York, such income currently would be subject to aggregate federal, state and local taxes approaching 50%.

    Puerto Rico received almost 3,500 applications for the tax incentives during fiscal 2019 and 2020, exceeding the combined total for the previous seven years, according to the commonwealth’s Department of Economic Development and Commerce. -Bloomberg

    In the first six months leading up to March, over 1,000 applications for tax incentives were filed according to an agency spokeswoman. Applications for the tax breaks, which are generally available to new residents and services businesses which generate revenue outside Puerto Rico, are typically kept confidential until approval. The government office which vets them reports a seven-month backlog, which has been exacerbated by the pandemic and surging demand thanks to Biden’s tax plans.

    “You have a lot of people looking to relocate because they no longer have to be in close proximity to where they work,” said Euro Pacific Capital head Peter Schiff, who moved his firm’s asset management arm to San Juan in 2013. “The higher taxes are, the greater the appeal of coming here,” he added.

    Menlo Park-based Pantera Advisors, headed by Dan Morehead, established a money-management unit last month in the Puerto Rican town of Guaynabo, according to a filing.

    According to SEC records, ExodusPoint and Millennium were the only large money managers with Puerto Rico affiliates as of the end of March. At present, neither firms’ subsidiaries have been granted incentives under the Export Services Act, according to the government spokeswoman.

    Real estate prices going ham

    Around 20 miles west of the capital of San Juan lies Dorado, an area considered family-friendly which boasts high-end housing and the infrastructure required by finance professionals to access necessary computer networks on the mainland.

    “There has been exceptional interest, in part because Dorado has access to fiber broadband,” said Jared Dubin – who recently set up Troluce Capital Advisers to manage money for ExodusPoint. “The Dorado real estate market has been pretty wild,” he added.

    And of course, the flood of new money managers snapping up high-end real estate is squeezing prices even higher in the region.

    Millennium incorporated a San Juan-based company, MPG PRManagement, on Nov. 23, according to records maintained by Puerto Rico’s Department of State. The subsidiary had four money managers working there at year-end, SEC records show. In June, ExodusPoint incorporated its subsidiary in Dorado, where Lee, 52, now lives. He owns 50% of that entity, ExodusPoint Capital Management Puerto Rico, and shares ownership of the rest with Gelband through another affiliate, according to a regulatory filing.

    Lee, whose Facebook page shows him seated at the controls of a private plane, has a commercial pilot rating and is certified to fly small jets, Federal Aviation Administration records show. In September, ExodusPoint revised its SEC filings to say that Lee’s business trips on a plane he had recently purchased would be partially covered by the firm’s expense policy. It allows Lee and Gelband to seek reimbursement from ExodusPoint hedge funds for private flights, with repayment limited to the equivalent cost of first-class commercial airfare.

    “If people are interested in drastic life changes in order to pay less tax, then I have one item on my list,” according to Stewart Patton – a Belize-based attorney who helps US expats optimize their tax situations. 

    “Move to Puerto Rico…”

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 05/11/2021 – 18:25

  • Marked-to-Marxist: Weighting Chinese Stocks
    Marked-to-Marxist: Weighting Chinese Stocks

    Authored by Nick Schmitz via Verdad Capital

    The three largest economies by GDP are the US, China, and Japan. These are also the largest country stock markets by aggregate market cap. By our count, US-headquartered stocks add up to $44T in equity value, Chinese (and Hong Kong) stocks add up to $17.3T, and Japanese stocks add up to $6.5T. Meanwhile, Vanguard’s Total World Stock ETF allocates 57% to US stocks, 5% to Chinese stocks, and 7% to Japanese stocks.

    Figure 1: GDP, Aggregate Market Size, and Vanguard (VT) Fund Weighing

    Source: IMF for 2021 nominal GDP estimates. Capital IQ for aggregate market cap of all country-headquartered public listings on country exchanges, excluding REITS and capital markets; China includes Hong Kong. Vanguard (VT) for country exposure weights.

    Relative to GDP or total market capitalization, global equity indices, and by proxy most investors, are massively underweight Chinese stocks. The case for upping exposure to China looks even stronger when we look at the selection opportunity, liquidity and growth, especially relative to China’s Asian competitor, Japan. China has 2x the number of listed stocks as Japan, and those stocks have 3x the median market cap of Japan.

    Figure 2: Stocks, Stock Size, and Growth for the Big Three Countries

    Source: Capital IQ, 27 April 2021

    Perhaps most notably, China’s median firm growth rates are >5x Japan’s. And China’s exceptional growth rates aren’t just figments of equity analysts’ imaginations: Chinese corporate profits have been growing faster than Japan’s for decades.

    Figure 3: Chinese vs Japanese GDP Growth Rates

    Source: IMF

    It’s puzzling, therefore, to note that China’s equity market hasn’t dramatically outperformed the Japanese market for 10 years now.

    Despite a massive difference in historic growth rates, the MSCI Japan index returned the exact same amount as the MSCI China index over the past decade, and with way less heartburn along the way.

    Figure 4: MSCI Japan vs MSCI China Index (2011–2021)

    Source: Capital IQ. Net Total Returns, USD.

    This is in large part because investors paid a hefty premium to own Chinese stocks throughout the decade. The growth differential, it appears, was more than priced in. The picture today is little changed from a decade ago: the price differential between the two is still one of the biggest for countries outside of US markets, a concerning data point for China bulls.

    Figure 5: Chinese vs Japanese Median Stock Trading Multiples Today

    Source: Capital IQ. All listed stocks, excluding REITS and capital markets.

    Chinese stocks are around 25% to 200% more expensive than Japanese stocks, depending on how you measure them.

    But this simple analysis assumes a Chinese public equity is the same thing in kind as other developed-market public equities like a Japanese stock. There is a relevant quote, often misattributed to Stalin: “I consider it completely unimportant who in the party will vote, or how; but what is extraordinarily important is this—who will count the votes, and how.” For minority voting shareholders of Chinese “public equities,” we think both may be extremely important. This is because Chinese public equities are neither “public” nor “equitable” to the extent we can measure.

    As shown below, Chinese equities have a public float of 45% on average, making them technically not public. Despite China’s maintenance, until recently, of the democratic-sounding “one share, one vote” law, in practice, this means that state-owned or quasi-state-owned institutions will often maintain full control according to academics and Pulitzer Prize winning journalism. This is a system of collective equity that might be thought of as having less of the nuance of James Madison and more of the nuance of Mao’s 1949 concept of The People’s Democratic Dictatorship. This “democracy for the people and dictatorship over the reactionaries,” is most likely why the reactionary practice of shareholder activism is “quite uncommon” in China, according to legal experts.

    But why rely on the opinions of experts and academics in their ivory towers? As shown below, when you ask Chinese people themselves, they routinely rank themselves alongside Bhutan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Colombia on most every metric related to the equitable treatment of shareholders, again making them not technically “equities” to the extent we can measure this.

    Figure 6: Public Float and Indicators of Equitable Treatment for “Public Equities”

    Source: Capital IQ for float. All publicly listed stocks, excluding REITs and capital markets. Survey rankings from the latest World Bank’s and World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Ranks.

    Finally, in comparing Chinese to Japanese equities, it may be useful to consider not just the valuation and transparency risks but also the debt markets these equities are subordinated to.

    Below is the aggregate amount of corporate ex-financial debt in China and Japan over the last 20 years. The financial statement growth that makes Chinese equities so attractive compared to Japanese equities has come at the cost of skyrocketing debt.

    Figure 7: Total Corporate Ex-Financial Debt ($M)

    Source: Fred

    And while the Chinese ratings agencies have ranked most all issued domestic bonds in the AAA to AA investment grade range, when the imperialist swine at S&P Credit Ratings applied their independent analysis on the publicly available Chinese accounting data, this resulted in a downgrade of the same sample of Chinese issuers from exclusively investment grade to largely speculative and junk grade.

    Figure 8: Chinese Domestic Credit Ratings vs S&P Indicative Ratings

    Source: S&P Global

    China is a unique market. We can think of only one historical analogue to a country like China today. A country whose capital markets rose at breakneck speed from the ashes of war and economic catastrophe. A country with a market that emerged as nearly dominant globally after prolonged sustained growth, at massive scale, with high valuations and extremely accommodative corporate lending. A country that adopted many capitalist standards to get there while allowing the government and complex webs of corporate crossholdings to play a heavy-handed role in directing national industrial and technological efforts before hitting peak population and a non-performing loan crisis. That country is Japan in the 1980s, before the asset bubble burst.

    But China is quite different from the historical example of Japan for many reasons, including that China is one of the very few officially Marxist-Leninist countries surviving today. North Korea, Laos, and Cuba don’t really have markets, let alone stock markets. As such, this extreme survivorship bias makes it difficult to estimate your long-term probability of realizing a return on (or return of) your capital in Marxist-Leninist states. We are left with only rough comparable examples like the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange in Vietnam and Venezuela’s Caracas Stock Exchange. We can’t say much empirically on such a limited sample, but for what it’s worth, all three markets joined the UN’s Sustainable Stock Exchanges Initiative, giving your capital what some would argue is two layers of communist oversite.

    It may be tempting to assume that when you put your money in a foreign country, no matter which one, you will get it back a decade later, as has occurred quite regularly since the ’70s. Capital controls were really something that only our grandparents had to worry about. But foreign investors thinking about Chinese exposure over the next decade have neither the assurance of constrained law nor credible deterrence. Meanwhile, in Japan, investors enjoy the backdrop of a close ally with a pluralistic liberal democratic constitution and the geopolitical insurance policy that only a division of US Marines in Okinawa can provide.    

    For these reasons, we think of allocation decisions to the largest countries outside of the US as more complicated than a weighting of fully interchangeable financial instruments.

    Our conclusion is that, compared to Japanese public equities today, Chinese public equities are not technically public or equitable to the extent we can measure. They are massively more expensive and are probably subordinated to much more dubious lending practices than the government-approved ratings agencies would let on, according to S&P’s mathematical standards. But we must admit that the trailing and one year forward growth is red-hot in the market that’s marked-to-Marxist.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 05/11/2021 – 18:05

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May 11

Today’s News 11th May 2021

  • The 700 Year Old Romanian Castle That Inspired "Dracula" Is Now A Free COVID Vaccination Site
    The 700 Year Old Romanian Castle That Inspired “Dracula” Is Now A Free COVID Vaccination Site

    Dracula has gone from sucking blood to injecting vaccines.

    In what is undoubtedly fertile ground for irony and a glance into the sad reality of the post-Covid world, the more than 700 year old castle that was said to have inspired Bram Stoker’s Dracula is now being used as a Covid vaccination site.

    The landmark is offering free Pfizer vaccines for visitors every weekend in May, according to CBS. 

    Medics on site wear fang stickers and the castle boasts signs that feature Dracula’s fangs replaced with vaccination needles.

    Visitors to the site can show up without an appointment and, after getting vaccinated, will receive “free admission” to the castle’s exhibits of – you guessed it – medieval torture instruments.

    Romania has pledged to vaccinate at least 10 million people by September. The country’s number currently stands at about 5.8 million people, out of a total population of 19.41 million. 

    The country has “one of the highest vaccine hesitancy rates,” the report notes (though with thoughtful stunts like this one, we can’t imagine why people aren’t taking it more seriously). “Nearly half” the country’s population doesn’t want to get vaccinated. 

    Those in charge hope the “Dracula’s castle” approach to medicine not only helps administer more vaccines, but drives up tourism numbers in the process.

    It’s a bold strategy. Let’s see if it works out for them.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 05/11/2021 – 02:45

  • The Risks Of A Positive Agenda Between The EU And Turkey
    The Risks Of A Positive Agenda Between The EU And Turkey

    Authored by Doris Christodoulou via GlobalRiskInsights.com,

    In the aftermath of the 25-26 European Council Summit, the EU is clearly divided in its approach to Turkey. While some wish to see a more determined EU which supports its values and protects its Member States, others disagree with sanctions on Turkey and support a more welcoming plan with which to meet the state. However, an approach using exclusively soft power opens up the EU to risks that have the potential to be very costly. 

    During the 25-26 March European Council Summit, one of the main points on the agenda was the situation in the Eastern Mediterranean. More extensively, the Summit focused on EU-Turkey relations. EU leaders recalled ‘the European Union’s strategic interest in a stable and secure environment in the Eastern Mediterranean and in the development of a cooperative and mutually beneficial relationship with Turkey.’ Although some are arguing for more sanctions, many leaders are hoping for an exclusively positive agenda between the EU and Turkey.

    Following the meeting on 25 March, the EU said that, provided Turkey maintains the current de-escalation and conditionalities laid out in previous conclusions of the European Council, the EU is ready to develop a positive agenda  that will facilitate cooperation with Turkey in areas of common interest, including economic cooperation and migration. However, an exclusively positive agenda comes with risks at the cost of the EU.

    Risk #1: The EU Undermines Its Own Legitimacy 

    A critical risk that comes with a positive EU-Turkey agenda is that it may undermine the EU as a legitimate player in the international arena. By adopting a positive agenda with Turkey, the EU runs the risk of appearing paradoxical. 

    The EU has recently imposed further sanctions on Russia over the imprisonment of opposition leader Alexey Navalny, on Belarus over the violent suppression of the opposition, and on Myanmar following the military coup. However, the EU is reluctant to impose sanctions on Turkey which likewise has breached laws and core European values, including democracy, sovereignty, and human rights. In fact, the EU continues to discuss further funding and investment in Turkey in the years to come. 

    This engenders skepticism around the efficacy of the EU’s normative power and puts EU solidarity to the test. Sticking to a soft power approach despite Turkey’s flagrant violations of democracy, human rights and state sovereignty would make the EU look weak, undermining the values it claims to represent. In addition to risking its standing as a legitimate international actor, it is likely that an exclusively positive agenda will make the EU  appear as though it lacks resolve, hence making it harder to maintain its leverage over issues that will arise in the future, such as on the new deal on migration. 

    Risk #2: The Return of Crisis in EU-Turkey Relations

    A positive agreement with Turkey must come with a consistent return to the rule of law. Yet, a closer look at Turkey’s domestic politics and a series of democratic failures in Turkey reveals that a future crisis in EU-Turkey relations is very likely. Whether this comes in the form of a threat to migration flows into the EU, or unauthorized gas explorations that undermine the sovereignty of EU member states, and more extensively the breach of international law if it does not align with Turkey’s interests. 

    It is rather naïve to expect that a state whose President exercises full control over domestic politics and foreign policy – without allowing much room for domestic challenge from other parties – would simply abide by international law. Evident to that is Turkey’s illegal occupation of Cyprus. Although a comprehensive solution to the Cyprus Problem is key to successful EU-Turkey relations, Turkey’s objection to the EU’s participation in the resumption of negotiations with Cyprus clashes with Turkey’s alleged cooperation with the EU. This breach of international law and deterioration of human rights are very likely to continue. A key example of human rights abuses includes crude violations against women. More than eleven million women have faced sexual or domestic violence in Turkey. Significantly, Turkey recently withdrew from the Istanbul Convention, an international treaty for the protection of women. This adds to the systematic failures to protect women’s rights and by extension human rights. The EU would do well to  be cautious of Erdogan’s statements regarding his willingness to cooperate. The risk that comes with the EU’s soft power approach is that it would only be a partial and temporary success in managing Turkey. Future conflicts of interest in the EU-Turkey relations are therefore highly likely.

    Conclusions

    The adoption of a purely positive agenda with Turkey, and the complete disregard of discussion to add sanctions, poses potential threats to the EU’s legitimacy and stability. Firstly, it undermines the EU’s influence as a normative power. It works in favour of the autocratic power in Turkey, which flies in the face of fundamental European values. If the EU were to take this approach to the situation with Turkey, it would run the risk of appearing paradoxical and illegitimate on the international stage. Secondly, by adopting a completely soft approach, the EU runs the risk of gaining a temporary half-victory, i.e., smoothing over relations in the region at the cost of the values it claims to hold so dear. 

    Future clashes with Turkey that harm European interests are very likely to occur, given its current autocratic regime and the deterioration of democratic values and human rights domestically. This hints at the unlikelihood of Turkey’s ability to effectively abide by international law. With this positive agenda, it appears the EU wishes to avoid breaking economic ties or migration flows to the EU. However, even if it succeeds in the short term, another crisis surrounding EU-Turkey relations can be expected in the future. The softer the EU’s response, the more power hungry Turkey may become, feeding a vicious circle – potentially exacerbating tensions in migration flows and geopolitical challenges, or neglecting human rights, just to name a few.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 05/11/2021 – 02:00

  • Escobar: An Empire In Love With Its Afghan Cemetery
    Escobar: An Empire In Love With Its Afghan Cemetery

    Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Asia Times,

    The New Great Game 3.0 is just beginning with a hat tip to Tacitus and dancing to the Hindu Kush groove…

    One cannot but feel mildly amused at the theatrical spectacle of the US troop pullout from Afghanistan, its completion day now postponed for maximum PR impact to 9/11, 2021.

    Nearly two decades and a staggering US$2 trillion after this Forever War was launched by a now immensely indebted empire, the debacle can certainly be interpreted as a warped version of Mission Accomplished.

    “They make a desert and call it peace,” said Tacitus – but in all of the vastness of the Pentagon there sits not a single flack who could imagine getting away with baldfacedly spinning the Afghan wasteland as peaceful.

    Even the UN bureaucratic machinery has not been able to properly account for Afghan civilian deaths; at best they settled for 100,000 in only ten years. Add to that toll countless “collateral” deaths provoked by the massive social and economic consequences of the war.

    Training and weaponizing the – largely inefficient – 300,000-plus Afghan Army cost $87 billion. “Economic aid and reconstruction” cost $54 billion: literally invisible hospitals and schools dot the Afghan landscape. A local chapter of the “war on drugs” cost $10 billion – at least with (inverted) tangible results: Afghanistan now generates 80% of the world’s opium.

    All these embarrassing facts disappear under the shadow play of 2,500 “official” departing troops. What really matters is who’s staying: by no means just a few out of some 17,000 “contractors,” over 6,000 of whom are American citizens.

    “Contractor” is a lovely euphemism for a bunch of mercenaries who, perfectly in tune with a shadow privatization drive, will now mingle with Special Forces teams and covert intel ops to conduct a still lethal variation of hybrid war.

    Of course this development won’t replicate those David Bowie-style Golden Years in the immediate post-9/11 era. Ten years ago, following the Obama-Petraeus surge, no fewer than 90,000 contractors were dancing to the Hindu Kush groove, lavishly compensated by the Pentagon and dabbling in everything from construction, transportation and maintenance to “enhanced interrogation services.”

    Collectively, this shadow army, a triumph of private enterprise many times cheaper than the state-sponsored model,  bagged at least $104 billion since 2002, and nearly $9 billion since 2016.

    Now we’re supposed to trust CENTCOM commander General Kenneth McKenzie, who swears that “the U.S. contractors will come out as we come out.” Apparently the Pentagon press secretary was not briefed: “So on the contractors, we don’t know exactly.”

    Some contractors are already in trouble, like Fluor Corporation, which is involved in maintenance and camp construction for no fewer than 70 Pentagon forward operating bases in northern Afghanistan. Incidentally, no Pentagon PR is explaining whether these FOBs will completely vanish.

    Fluor was benefitting from something called LOGCAP – Logistics Civil Augmentation IV Program – a scheme set by the Pentagon at the start of Obama-Biden 1.0 to “outsource logistical military support.” Its initial five-year deal was worth a cool $7 billion. Now Fluor is being sued for fraud.

    Enhancing stability forever

    The current government in Kabul is led by a virtual nonentity, Ashraf Ghani. Like his sartorially glamorous predecessor Hamid Karzai, Ghani is a US creature, lording it over a rambling military force financed by Washington to the tune of $4 billion a year.

    So of course Ghani is entitled to spin a rosy outlook for an Afghan peace process on the pages of Foreign Affairs.

    It gets curioser and curioser when we add the incandescent issue that may have provoked the Forever War in the first place: al-Qaeda.

    A “former security coordinator for Osama bin Laden” is now peddling the idea that al-Qaeda may be back in the Hindu Kush. Yet, according to Afghan diplomats, there is no evidence that the Taliban will allow old-school al-Qaeda – the Osama/al-Zawahiri incarnation – to thrive again.

    That’s despite the fact that Washington, for all practical purposes, has ditched the Doha Agreement signed in February 2020, which stipulated that the troop pullout should have happened this past Saturday, May 1.

    Of course, we can always count on the Pentagon to “enhance security and stability”  in Afghanistan. In this Pentagon report we learn that “AQIS [al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent] routinely supports and works with low-level Taliban members in its efforts to undermine the Afghan government, and maintains an enduring interest in attacking US forces and Western targets.”

    Well, what the Pentagon does not tell us is how old-school al-Qaeda, pre-AQIS, metastasized into a galaxy of “moderate rebels” now ensconced in Idlib, Syria. And how contingents of Salafi-jihadis were able to access mysterious transportation corridors to bolster the ranks of ISIS-Khorasan in Afghanistan.

    The CIA heroin ratline

    All you need to know, reported on the ground, about the crucial first years of the imperial adventure in Afghanistan is to be found in the Asia Times e-book Forever Wars, part 1.

    Two decades later, the politico-intel combo behind Biden is now spinning that the end of this particular Forever War is an imperative, integrated to the latest US National Security Strategy.

    Shadow play once again reigns. Withdrawal conditionals include the incompetence and corruption of the Afghan military and security forces; that notorious Taliban-al-Qaeda re-engagement; the fight for women’s rights; and acknowledging the supreme taboo: this ain’t no withdrawal because a substantial Special Forces contingent will stay in place.

    In a nutshell: for the US deep state, leaving Afghanistan is anathema.

    The real heart of the matter in Afghanistan concerns drugs and geopolitics – and their toxic intersection.

    Everyone with transit in the Dubai-Kandahar axis and its ramifications knows that the global-spanned opium and heroin business is a matter very close to the CIA’s heart. Secure air transport is offered by bases in Afghanistan and neighboring Kyrgyzstan.

    William Engdahl has offered a concise breakdown  of how it works. In the immediate post-9/11 days, in Afghanistan, the main player in the opium trade was none other than Ahmed Wali Karzai, presidential brother and a CIA asset. I interviewed him in Quetta, Balochistan’s capital, in October 2001 (the interview can be found in Forever Wars). He obviously did not talk about opium.

    Ahmed Karzai was snuffed out in a Mafia-style hit at home, in Helmand, in 2011. Helmand happens to be Afghanistan’s Opium Central. In 2017, following on previous investigations by Seymour Hersh and Alfred McCoy, among others, I detailed the workings of the CIA heroin ratline in Afghanistan.

    New Great Game 3.0 is on

    Whatever happens next will involve layers and layers of shadow play. CENTCOM’s McKenzie, at a closed-door hearing at the US House Armed Services Committee, basically said they are still “figuring out” what to do next.

    That will certainly involve, in McKenzie’s own assessment, “counter-terrorism operations within the region”; “expeditionary basing” (linguistic diversion to imply there won’t be any permanent bases, at least in thesis); and “assistance” to Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (no details on what this “assistance” will consist of).

    Now compare it with the view by major Eurasian powers: Russia, China, Pakistan and Iran, three of them members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), with Iran as an observer and soon full member.

    Their number one priority is to prevent any mutating Afghan jihadi virus to contaminate Central Asia. A massive 50,000 troop-strong Russia-Tajikistan military exercise in late April had exactly that in mind.

    Ministers of defense of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) met in Dushanbe with the objective of further fortifying the porous Tajik-Afghan border.

    And then there’s the Turkmen-Afghan border, from which the opium/heroin trail reaches the Caspian Sea and diversifies via Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. Moscow, even more than the CSTO, is particularly worried by this stretch of the trail.

    The Russians are very much aware that even more than different opium/heroin routes springing up, the top danger is a new influx of Salafi-jihadis into the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

    Even if analyzing it from completely different perspectives, Americans and Russians seem to be equally focused on what Salafi-jihadists – and their handlers – may come up with in post-9/11, 2021 Afghanistan.

    So let’s go back to Doha, where something really intriguing is afoot.

    On April 30, a so-called extended troika – Russia, the United States, China and Pakistan – issued a joint statement in Doha on their discussions regarding a negotiated settlement in Afghanistan.

    The extended troika met with the Kabul government, the Taliban and host Qatar. At least they agreed there should be “no military solution.”

    It gets curioser and curioser again: Turkey, backed by Qatar and the UN, is getting ready to host a conference to further bridge the gap between the Kabul government and the Taliban. Realpolitik cynics will have a ball wondering what Erdogan is scheming at.

    The extended troika, at least rhetorically, is in favor of an “independent, sovereign, unified, peaceful, democratic, neutral and self-sufficient Afghanistan.” Talk about a lofty undertaking. It remains to be seen how Afghanistan’s “neutrality” can be guaranteed in such a nest of New Great Game serpents.

    Beijing and Moscow will be under no illusions that the newly privatized, Special Forces Afghan-American experiment will eschew using Salafi-jihadis, radicalized Uighurs or other instant assets to destabilize what in effect should be the incorporation of Afghanistan to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (where it’s already an observer) and the larger Eurasia integration project.

    An extra-intriguing piece of the puzzle is that a very pragmatic Russia – unlike its historical ally India – is not against including the Taliban in an overall Afghan settlement. New Delhi will have to go along. As for Islamabad, the only thing that matters, as always, is to have a friendly government in Kabul. That good old “strategic depth” obsession.

    What the major players – Russia and China – see in the framework of a minimally stabilized Afghanistan is yet one more step to consolidate the evolution of the New Silk Roads in parallel with the Greater Eurasia partnership. That’s exactly the message Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov delivered during his recent visit to Pakistan.

    Now compare it with the – never explicit – strategic deep state aim: to keep some sort of military-intel “forward operating base” in the absolutely crucial node between Central and South Asia and close, oh so close, to national security “threats” Russia and China.

    The New Great Game 3.0 is just beginning at the graveyard of empires.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 05/11/2021 – 00:10

  • China Enforces New Boundary With Nepal At Summit Of Everest To Keep Infected Climbers Out
    China Enforces New Boundary With Nepal At Summit Of Everest To Keep Infected Climbers Out

    In the latest sign that Beijing is warily eyeing the outbreak in India as it spills over its borders into neighboring Nepal, China has set up a “line of separation” at the summit of Mount Everest to prevent any climbers from the Nepal side from mingling with climbers from the Tibet side, Reuters reports. The decision comes as the Everest base camp on the Nepal side has struggled with a persistent COVID-19 outbreak since April.

    To accomplish this, China is sending an expedition of climbers to install the line, though it’s not clear how they intend to enforce the boundary.

    Starved of tourism revenue, the Nepalese government has refused to impose limits on tourists and climbers who come in droves to visit the legendary mountain. Beijing apparently doesn’t feel great about this.

    As Reuters pointed out, it’s not clear how Beijing intends to enforce the border line in one of the most inhospitable environments for humans – the area surround the summit of Everest. The summit itself is about the size of a dining room table.

    To install it, Beijing is dispatching a small team of Tibetan climbing guides – which will include 21 Chinese nationals – who will ascend Everest and set up the “line of separation” at the summit.

    It’s also unclear whether the team of guides who will be setting up the line of separation will remain in the “death zone”, the area leading up to the summit where hundreds of travelers have died.

    China hasn’t allowed any foreign climbers to ascend the mountain from the Tibetan side since the coronavirus pandemic began. Tourists are also banned from visiting the base camp on the Tibetan side.

    So if you do happen to get infected with COVID-19 at 30,000 feet, you better just stay up there.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/10/2021 – 23:50

  • Welcome To The Socialist Paradise Of California
    Welcome To The Socialist Paradise Of California

    Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

    If you like extremely high taxes, a ridiculously inflated cost of living, horrifying bureaucratic nightmares, rising crime rates, endless homeless encampments and “health restrictions” that make it nearly impossible to operate a small business successfully, then you are going to absolutely love California.  Vast hordes of people have fled the state over the past 12 months, and so that means that there is now plenty of room for more socialists to move in.  But before you come, you will want to make sure that you have completely discarded any lingering notions of “freedom” and “liberty” because they won’t be of any use to you once you arrive in California.

    Over the past few years, California has gotten a bad rap for being an absolutely filthy place, but the truth is that authorities are going to great lengths to try to clean things up.

    In fact, they just removed 180 pounds of feces from one homeless encampment alone…

    This week, Echo Lake Park in Los Angeles California, the location of a former homeless encampment, received a much needed, and long overdue, deep cleaning.

    The park was closed last month and since then, city officials have been working to clean and revitalize the park and have reportedly removed over 170 tents and other debris, the Los Angeles Times reported.

    Among the 35 tons or 70,000 pounds of garbage, there were literal piles of poop, amounting to 180 pounds of feces and 564 pounds of urine according data from L.A. Sanitation & Environment workers. This did not include excrement collected from portable or permanent restrooms. Other hazardous waste like needles used for drugs, gasoline, and kerosene amounted to 300 pounds of the total trash collected, the LA Times noted.

    Critics of California often focus on the worst parts of the state, and that is very unfortunate.

    California is a state known for great natural beauty, and that natural beauty once attracted tourists from all over the globe.  Unfortunately, the pandemic has kind of killed tourism and many of the most iconic locations in the state have been marred by the “temporary” problems that the state is currently experiencing.  Venice Beach is just one example…

    Residents of Venice Beach in Los Angeles say soaring crime rates and the exploding homeless population have made life in the elite beachside community unbearable.

    A ‘catastrophic’ increase in homelessness in Los Angeles has seen hundreds of tents line the beach’s famous boardwalk.

    Business owners say they are being forced to close their doors and longterm residents are afraid to leave their homes after dark after being subjected to violent attacks and intimidation.

    Many Californians aren’t leaving their homes that much during daylight hours either because the price of gasoline has gotten so high.

    At this point, the average price of a gallon of regular-grade gasoline in the United States has reached $3.02 per gallon.

    That is not good, but in many parts of California the average price of a gallon of regular-grade gasoline is now hovering around four dollars a gallon, and in some locations a gallon of premium is almost five dollars a gallon.

    But officials in California are assuring us that higher taxes and absurd regulations are “only partly to blame” for why residents of California have to pay such high prices for gasoline…

    Some industry observers insist the higher cost of gasoline in California is due to higher taxes and regulations on gas and carbon emissions statewide. State agencies and consumer advocates insist those factors are only partly to blame and that the largest manufacturers charge more in California simply because they can, while big oil companies have held back on ramping up supply, according to the New York Times, after seeing huge cuts to their profits and workforce last year because of the pandemic.

    Of course the gasoline prices in California are not even worth comparing to the absurdly high housing prices in the state.

    But the good news is that those housing prices have started to moderate a bit as hordes of former residents have stampeded out of the state over the past year.

    Some suspect that rising crime rates may have something to do with the mass exodus.  After a huge increase last year, the murder rate in Los Angeles County is up almost 200 percent so far in 2021…

    Murders in Los Angeles County have spiked nearly 200% so far this year compared to the same time in 2020, with at least one official blaming the “defund the police” movement and progressive law enforcement officials.

    Apparently not satisfied with how fast crime is rising, California Governor Gavin Newsom has decided that now is a perfect time to start releasing tens of thousands of violent criminals back on to the streets…

    California is giving 76,000 inmates, including violent and repeat felons, the opportunity to leave prison earlier as the state aims to further trim the population of what once was the nation’s largest state correctional system.

    More than 63,000 inmates convicted of violent crimes will be eligible for good behavior credits that shorten their sentences by one-third instead of the one-fifth that had been in place since 2017. That includes nearly 20,000 inmates who are serving life sentences with the possibility of parole.

    We are being told that California prisons will soon be a lot safer once all of those violent criminals are gone.

    So if you plan on living in a California prison, that is really promising news.

    As my regular readers already know, I really like to make fun of the state of California.

    But the truth is that the entire country is slowly but surely becoming just like California, and there is nothing funny about that.

    The state of California was once one of the most beautiful and most prosperous places on the entire planet.

    Sadly, now socialism is transforming it into a dirty, filthy, crime-ridden bureaucratic hellhole.

    The rest of the nation should be recoiling in horror from the cautionary tale that California has become, but instead both major political parties have deeply embraced socialism at this point.

    The path that we are on does not lead anywhere good, and those that actually live in California should understand this better than any of us.

    *  *  *

    Michael’s new book entitled “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/10/2021 – 23:30

  • US Navy Seizes Massive Weapon Shipment From Stateless Vessel In Arabian Sea
    US Navy Seizes Massive Weapon Shipment From Stateless Vessel In Arabian Sea

    The guided-missile cruiser USS Monterey (CG 61) seized a massive shipment of illicit weapons last week that was being transited through international waters of the North Arabian Sea, according to the US Navy. 

    A Sikorsky SH-60 Seahawk launched from the USS Monterey helped stopped the stateless dhow sailing vessel on May 6 as part of a routine operation to verify its registry. 

    USS Monterey personnel worked with US Coast Guard Advanced Interdiction Team (AIT), boarded the vessel, and found the weapon stash. 

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    “The cache of weapons included dozens of advanced Russian-made anti-tank guided missiles, thousands of Chinese Type 56 assault rifles, and hundreds of PKM machine guns, sniper rifles and rocket-propelled grenades launchers. Other weapon components included advanced optical sights,” the Navy said. 

    The illicit cargo was removed from the vessel and laid out on the rear of the flight deck of the 567-foot warship. 

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    Lt. Cmdr. Pete Pagano, a spokesperson for the Navy’s Fifth Fleet, told CNN in an email Monday, the weapons were likely bound for Houthi rebels in Yemen. He cited similar seizures by the Fifth Fleet over the years. 

    “It comes amid tensions in Yemen and Iran’s attempt to support Houthi rebels there. However, it may be linked to other militant groups in Yemen or even the Horn of Africa or elsewhere,” said The Jerusalem Post. 

    On Feb. 9, the cruiser USS Normandy seized missile components from a dhow sailing vessel in the Arabian Sea. 

    The seizure of the weapons was around the time the Biden administration lashed out at Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels last Friday for refusing to meet with senior UN officials to address plans to wind down the country’s devastating war and increase humanitarian relief to suffering civilians. President Biden has also announced the end of operations in the Yemen War. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/10/2021 – 23:10

  • "This Is Not Transitory": Hyperinflation Fears Are Soaring Across America
    “This Is Not Transitory”: Hyperinflation Fears Are Soaring Across America

    There was some good news for the (transitorily hyper–)inflation-ravaged US economy today when copper, wheat and lumber futures all fell after days of surging – in the case of the latter, the first drop in 13 days…

    … pushing the Bloomberg commodity index lower after six straight days of gains.

    Yet while today’s boiling-off in commodities may have been a faint validation of the Fed’s claim that this inflation is “transitory”, inflation pressures are unmistakably building, with Bloomberg’s Vince Cignarella noting that the five-year/five-year inflation swap is above 2.5% and rising: “that’s the highest since January 2018 and just 10 basis points below levels we saw in January 2017.”

    Why is this important? As Cignarella explains, “Inflation swaps are used by financial professionals to mitigate/hedge the risk of inflation and are considered reasonably accurate estimates for the break-even rate for the period in question. They’re also helpful to central banks and dealers who are trying to determine the market’s future inflation expectations.”

    In short, the market is looking at all the signals and is growing convinced that whatever “this” is, it is not transitory.

    And it’s not just finance pros who are calling the Fed’s bluff: according to the New York Fed’s survey of consumer expectations, median 1-year and 3-year inflation expectations by ordinary Americans jumped to a multi-year high of 3.4% and 3.1% respectively, the highest since September 2013.

    Digging through the details reveals an even more alarming picture: over the next year consumers anticipate gasoline prices jumping 9.18%, food prices gaining 5.79%, medical costs surging 9.13%, the price of a college education climbing 5.93%, and rent prices increasing 9.49%!

    This is hardly a “transitory inflation” expectation, to the contrary – expectations for sharply higher inflation are become firmly ingrained.

    But wait, there’s more: the CPI report on Wednesday is also expected to show price pressures leaped in April, and not just on a distorted year-over-year basis (where the base effect makes readings meaningless). The 0.3% core CPI M/M increase will be the highest print this century!

    It gets worse: one week after we showed that mentions of “inflation” on company earnings calls have now quadrupled YoY; and have jumped nearly 800% YoY…

    … as companies now openly freak out about soaring costs which they generously pass on to consumers, prompting BofA to conclude that “on an absolute basis, [inflation] mentions skyrocketed to near record highs from 2011, pointing to at the very least, “transitory” hyper-inflation ahead.”

    Maybe the hyperinflation will be transitory – if so, it would be the first time in history – but the soaring prices have clearly sparked a panic amid the broader population as the following chart of google searches of “inflation” shows.

    Source: Lehman econometrics

    And so, with most assets now “fixed” by the Fed, with bonds having lost all their inflationary signaling as they now trade in a world of implicit yield curve control, and with stocks already in a massive bubble, is there any wonder why the chart of the latest crypto darling du jour – Ethereum – which so far has not been “micromanaged” by the Fed (unlike the central bank’s old nemesis, gold), looks the way it does…

    … when increasingly more see the crypto asset class as one of the few remaining hedges for inflation, as even Bloomberg’s John Authers recently admitted.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/10/2021 – 22:50

  • Chelsea Clinton Calls For Global Crackdown On "Anti-Vax" Social Media Posts
    Chelsea Clinton Calls For Global Crackdown On “Anti-Vax” Social Media Posts

    Speaking at a Vatican-organized conference meant to promote “open dialogue”, Chelsea Clinton called for a global effort to crack down on all “anti-vax” social media posts, or anything that’s ‘skeptical’ of the official narrative.

    The statement, made in a pre-recorded segment that featured questions for the erstwhile first daughter, Clinton was asked to respond to a query about “vaccine hesitancy” and what can be done to encourage wider vaccine adoption.

    Clinton chose to opine about limiting freedom of speech and cracking down on social media posts, but didn’t touch the issue of access and the ongoing debate about waiving IP protections for COVID-19 vaccines, something the White House recently said it would support, even as much of the developed world opposes the plan (even if the EU signaled that it’s open to discuss it).

    “I personally very strongly believe there has to be more intensive and intentional and coordinated global regulation of the content on social media platforms,” she said.

    “We know that the most popular video across all of Latin America for the last few weeks that now has tens of millions of views is just an anti-vax, anti-science screed that YouTube has just refused to take down.”

    Clinton added that anti-vaccine content created in the US “flourishes” acround the world due to social media like YouTube and Facebook.

    “We know that – because I have tried – that appealing to the leadership of these companies to do the right thing has just not worked, and so we need regulation.”

    Clinton said that the Clinton Foundation has been doing what it can to convince the “vaccine hesitant” and the “vaccine refusers” to accept doses of the COVID-19 vaccines. She believes it is important to differentiate between people who are “hesitant” and those in the “refusal group.” The “hesitant” have questions that she can answer, for instance regarding the speed at which the vaccines were developed, their ingredients, and “conspiracies about microchips.”

    Recently, those who have questioned aspects of the COVID-19 rollout in the US (most notably, Joe Rogan, who was recently forced to apologize for vaccine-skeptic musings on his show), have been attacked by a growing chorus of critics including the mainstream press while being de-platformed by everyone from Facebook to PayPal.

    If Clinton wants to start setting standards for what content should be banned on social media, she should probably start by being more specific about what constitute’s being “anti vax”. For example, are the Norwegian health officials who recommended rejecting both the AstraZeneca and J&J jabs over safety concerns “anti vaxx”? How about the other European public health officials who came to similar conclusions?

    And what about the CDC, with its increasingly byzantine guidelines about when and where masks are appropriate, what types of precautions must still be taken by those who have been “fully vaxxed” and whether or not Americans can expect to receive a booster dose.

    Of course, if Clinton wants to improve adoption rates for COVID-19 vaccines, maybe she should focus on broadening access in the developing world.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/10/2021 – 22:30

  • US Already Planning How To "Choke" Chinese Submarines In Case Of Conflict
    US Already Planning How To “Choke” Chinese Submarines In Case Of Conflict

    A hugely significant weakness and set-back for the Chinese Navy and particularly its submarine capability was featured in recent Nikkei analysis, which found that its coastal system already has geography working against it, while at the same time giving Japan and Taiwan a significant edge.

    “When you look at China’s submarine bases, every single one of them has a fair bit of shallow water that their submarines have to transit through in order to get to deep water,” former US Navy submariner Tom Shugart explained to Nikkei Asia.

    Chinese Navy nuclear submarine, via Reuters

    A key issue is that submarines are much easier for rival nations to search out and track as they traverse shallow water, while in deep sea waters identity and defensive action against subs becomes extremely difficult. 

    What’s more is that US allies Japan and Taiwan are much less constrained by these “chokepoints” which are more characteristic of China’s shallower coastal waters. This gives the Japanese and Taiwanese navies the ability to deep dive a submarine fast, and quickly drop off their east coasts. 

    “A fast take a look at Google Earth reveals that China’s coast is surrounded by mild blue — which displays shallow seas — in distinction to the darkish blue deep waters that instantly drop off from the east coasts of Taiwan and Japan,” Nikkei observes. 

    And another defense expert was cited on what this means for China and more importantly for Pentagon planning as follows:

    “For them to move from China’s near seas to the open ocean, they’re going to have to transit through different chokepoints and straits in the island chains,” mentioned Shugart, an adjunct senior fellow on the Center for a New American Security assume tank.

    “That will provide opportunities for an adversary — the U.S. and our allies’ submarine forces — to monitor more closely and try to intercept them if we were involved in a conflict, or in the run-up to a conflict.”

    The US Department of Defense as well as closely affiliated think tank Rand Corp. is said to be studying “chokepoint management” in the region, given that any future potential US and allies conflict with China in the East and South China seas would put the US side at a distinct advantage when it comes to submarine warfare. 

    US Defense Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin recently signaled that Japan and other regional allies will be essential in establishing ‘integrated deterrence’ against China based on deeper collaboration.

    Map of South China Sea and Beijing’s expansive claims…

    The rest of the full Nikkei Asia analysis can be found here.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/10/2021 – 22:10

  • Egypt Reduces Compensation Fine Against Ever Given By $300 Million
    Egypt Reduces Compensation Fine Against Ever Given By $300 Million

    Egypt’s Suez Canal Authority (SCA) offered to drop $300 million from its compensation claims against the owners of the Ever Given containership, according to Egypt Today. 

    The Panama-flagged Ever Given containership, owned by Japan’s Shoei Kisen Kaisha, blocked the Suez Canal for six days in late March. SCA initially requested $916 million in damages for the blockage and continues to impound the ship 30 miles up the channel in the Great Bitter Lake. 

    Here’s the current location of the containership as of 0645 ET.

    The reduction of compensation claims was announced by the SCA Chairperson Admiral Osama Rabie on Friday. He told the MBC Masr channel that Egypt would continue to impound the vessel until the fine is paid. We’ve noted the court battle between SCA and the vessel owners could be a long-drawn-out process. 

    Egyptian business tycoon Naguib Sawiris tweeted that SCA’s fine is “exaggerated and unrealistic,” stating it’s not a good image for the country. 

    There have been instances where commercial vessels involved in international disputes take months or even years to resolve. There’s still no timeline when Ever Given’s owners will pay the fine, but the prolonged legal battle is not good luck for SCA. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/10/2021 – 21:50

  • 71% Of Eligible Gen-Zers Don't Qualify For Military Due To Obesity, Criminal Records And Other Reasons
    71% Of Eligible Gen-Zers Don’t Qualify For Military Due To Obesity, Criminal Records And Other Reasons

    Bloomberg is out with a Monday report chronicling the sad state of affairs the US military has found itself in – notably trying to lure eligible recruits from Generation Z with a cartoon series dubbed “The Calling,” which will run on YouTube during May and June.

    As Bloomberg notes, “The Army—the U.S. military’s largest service—faces a complex set of problems: the eligible recruiting pool into all military services is small; and the newest generation of prospects, Gen Z, has had almost no contact or knowledge of the military, which has largely fought wars abroad since 2001. The Gen Z cohort grew up with technology, the internet, and social media.”

    The videos feature Emma, the self-proclaimed spoiled kid; David, the Hawaiian kid who at first didn’t let himself dream about becoming a pilot; Rickie, who grew up in a religious Haitian family in Florida; Janeen, a singer performing on cruise ships who joined the Reserves with the help of her Vietnam-veteran father; and Jennifer, born to first-generation Dominican immigrants, who worked long hours to make ends meet. -Bloomberg

    It gets worse.

    According to the report, almost 71% of those aged 17 to 24 – roughly 24 million out of 34 million people – are ineligible to join the military because of “obesity, lack of high school diploma, or a criminal record,“ according to Pentagon data.

    In order to lure the eligible Gen-Z’ers, the Army will be spending $425 million on marketing, with the goal of recruiting 60,000 to 70,000 active-duty soldiers, along with 40,000-45,000 National Guardsmen, and 13,000 to 17,000 members of the reserve. To do this, prospective recruits will be served content on YouTube via 15-second trailer. If a person watches at least 10 seconds of the ad, they will see a two-to-three minute episode of the recruiting cartoon, followed by an invitation to hop over to the Army’s website.

    “Gen Z flips through social media like it is an Olympic sport, and in order to get them to stop their thumbs for a few seconds, you’ve got to surprise them,” said Maj. Gen. Alex Fink, the Army’s chief of enterprise marketing. “The Calling has got a much more different look and feel than anything else than not only the Army has done—but nobody in the military has done something like this.”

    America’s foreign adversaries must be laughing their asses off.

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    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/10/2021 – 21:44

  • What Was Behind Friday's "Literally Shocking" Payrolls Miss
    What Was Behind Friday’s “Literally Shocking” Payrolls Miss

    By Steve Englander, head global G10 FX research at Standard Chartered bank

    Summary:

    • We see sampling issues and child-care concerns as the most likely drivers of the NFP weakness
    • We are skeptical of the work disincentives explanation as the number of UI benefit recipients and of long-term unemployed dropped sharply
    • Seasonality was normal, so this does not seem to have been a major issue
    • We doubt the Fed will change its stance, even if an abnormal May bounce offsets the April shortfall

    Work disincentives likely a future issue, but not in April

    There is a lot of discussion on the big forecast miss of April non-farm payrolls (NFP). The consensus was for around 1mn jobs, our forecast was 1.5mn and the outcome was 266,000 (Bloomberg even called it “literally shocking data“). Against much commentary in recent days, we doubt that the generosity of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits played an important role in April, but we do not underestimate its future impact. We suspect sampling issues in the survey were the main source of the miss but find evidence that child-care issues played an important but secondary role. The run-up in average hourly earnings seems abrupt but is consistent with anecdotal reports of labor shortages.

    We see the main takeaway for markets as USD weakness, accompanied by an upward drift in breakevens and commodity prices. Manufacturing wages lagged other sectors but were still up 0.6%. Labor shortages and wage growth in sectors open to competition add up to lost competitiveness, absent USD weakness. If disincentives to work grow in importance there will likely be added depreciation pressure. We think investors may be uncertain on how literally to take the disappointing NFP outcome but see the cost pressures as persistent. The consensus forecast for April core CPI is 0.3% m/m, the first time the consensus has been above 0.2% in the 21st century!

    April disincentive effect was probably exaggerated

    Many analysts have cited the potential impact on the labor supply of generous unemployment benefits. However, if these disincentives to work were the driver, we probably would not have seen the number of those receiving benefits drop as sharply as they did in March and April (Figure 2). It is hard to believe that NFP are capturing an unemployment effect invisible in claims and UI expenditure data. In addition, in the household survey the number of long-term unemployed continued to fall, while the number of those unemployed five weeks or less rose. We would expect the disincentives to show in the long-term unemployed hanging onto benefits.

    A separate Bureau of Labor Statistics survey of the impact of COVID-19 indicates that 1.7mn fewer workers were unable to work in April than in March because their employers closed or lost business due to COVID-19. While it is hard to link this survey directly to the Current Employment Survey from which NFP are derived, it does seem as if workers are going back to work once COVID-19 constraints are removed. We dismiss the supply-side impact in April because the data do not support it, but see risk that it becomes a bigger factor down the road.

    Tentative evidence that chid-care constraints matter

    Employment in the BLS household survey increased 326,000, but employment of women dropped 8,000. Only women aged 16-19 years showed an appreciable employment increase. This is consistent with the possibility that child-care responsibilities may have limited women’s ability to accept jobs. The drop from March to April in the category ‘Did not look for work in the last 4 weeks because of the coronavirus pandemic’ was steeper for men than for women and steeper for those without children under 18 than for those with; but the differences were not big enough to explain the shortfall in job gains.

    What makes this driver tentative is that women’s job gains over the past year have exceeded men’s. It is possible that child-care constraints increased in April but we are not sure why this would have happened as reopening extended.

    Note also that even had women’s employment gone up as much as men’s, the outcome would still be disappointing (we assume that men’s ability to accept employment was far less constrained).


    Seasonality was typical

    Non-seasonally-adjusted NFP were up 1.089mn, but the seasonal adjustment reduced the gains to 266,000. At first glance this looks like an aggressive seasonal adjustment, but in fact this is pretty typical for the pre-COVID-19 period.

    The non-seasonally adjusted April NFP average over 2015-19 was 1.1mn jobs that the seasonal adjustment reduced to 215,000. For the seasonal factor to be relevant there would have to be an argument that seasonal effects were distorted; for example, that seasonal layoffs in Q1 were less than normal, so April rehiring was similarly less than normal. We do not see these as easy arguments to make.

    Sampling error

    We put forward sampling error as an explanation with caution, as the temptation to resort to sampling error after a big forecasting miss is significant. We see three arguments for considering sampling error seriously:

    • The supplementary BLS shows continuous easing of COVID-constraints on working. For example the number of people teleworking dropped by almost four million from March to April (Figure 5). This drop cannot be mapped directly into NFP gains but indicates improving conditions. Almost by definition, the ramping up and easing of COVID-19 related constraints should not be seasonally adjusted away.
    • The BLS birth and death model that adjusts for firms (re-)opening and shutting down may be particularly imprecise under current circumstances. The BLS has adjusted its estimation procedures, but it is unclear how much their revised adjustment captures.
    • Most other labor-market indicators were showing robust conditions. There is no direct link between the BLS surveys and these other indicators, but the lackluster BLS releases are at odds with the ISM, other surveys and other labor-market indicators.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/10/2021 – 21:30

  • "Gas Run Has Begun" – Fuel Stations Run Dry Amid Hacked Pipeline
    “Gas Run Has Begun” – Fuel Stations Run Dry Amid Hacked Pipeline

    Gas shortages are being reported in the Southeast of the US amid the recent cybersecurity attack that temporarily shut down one of the largest pipelines in the US.

    Colonial Pipeline Co. Chief Executive Officer Joseph Blount said the company was in the process of restoring its systems but wouldn’t resume fuel shipments until the ransomware had been removed, according to Bloomberg. 

    At the moment, Colonial Pipeline is manually operating a segment of pipeline between North Carolina to Maryland and expects a complete system restore by the weekend. However, gas shortages are already being reported across North Carolina to Florida to Alabama. 

    On Monday, North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper signed an Executive Order declaring a state of emergency, temporarily suspending motor vehicle fuel regulations to ensure adequate fuel supply supplies throughout the state.

    WLOS’ Caitlyn Penter reported gas shortages in North Carolina. 

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    Penter said long gas lines were developing. 

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    WEAR-TV’s Renee Beninate shows that one gas station in Northwest Florida was selling regular gas for $4.29/gallon.

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    More people in Florida panic buying fuel for $4.50/gallon. 

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    In Fitzgerald, Georgia, one Twitter user shows long gas lines at an enmarket gas station. 

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    One South Carolina gas station was out of unleaded and plus. 

    Someone in Myrtle Beach panic hoarded gas. 

    People are getting worried about the shortage. 

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    A massive line of people waiting for fuel in Asheville, North Carolina.

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    People waiting to fuel up at one gas station in Plymouth, North Carolina.

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    Not sure where, but the run has begun. 

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    Gas shortage in Atlanta. 

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    Gas lines in Clinton, North Carolina. 

    WSOC’s Greg Suskin reports a gas station in South Carolina has entirely run out of gas, except for diesel. 

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    Shortages now spreading into Tennessee. 

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    According to Google Search Trends, people started panic searching “gas shortage” around 1300 ET in the Southeast.

    So far, nationwide gas prices have surged six cents this week to $2.96 – the highest for this time of year since 2014. If the national average soars to $2.99 or higher this week, it will be the highest since November 2014… and right before the start of summer driving season.

    AAA forecasts gas prices are soaring because of the shutdown of the Colonial Pipeline, which delivers about 45% of all fuel to the East Coast. 

    “This shutdown will have implications on both gasoline supply and prices, but the impact will vary regionally. Areas including Mississippi, Tennessee, and the east coast from Georgia into Delaware are most likely to experience limited fuel availability and price increases, as early as this week,” said Jeanette McGee, AAA spokesperson. “These states may see prices increase three to seven cents this week.”

    This is beginning to look like the 1970s gas shortage. If the panic just started hours ago – just wait until tomorrow. People will freak. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/10/2021 – 21:09

  • Hedge Fund Gross Leverage Hits All Time High As HFs Furiously Short Tech Stocks
    Hedge Fund Gross Leverage Hits All Time High As HFs Furiously Short Tech Stocks

    Hedge funds had another rough week according to Goldman’s Prime Brokerage, with the GS Equity Fundamental L/S  Performance Estimate falling -1.68% between 4/30 and 5/6 (vs MSCI World TR -0.33%), driven by alpha of -1.11% – the worst weekly alpha in two months – and to a lesser extent beta of -0.57% (from market exposure and the market sensitivity factor combined). As a result, global fundamental equity L/S hedge funds lost almost two-thirds of their YTD gains in just the past week, bringing their total YTD return to just 0.97% in what is setting up as another dismal year for the 2 and 20 crowd.

    What is remarkable is just how sensitive to overall market beta the hedge fund space has become, and there is a reason for that: according to Goldman Prime, overall book Gross leverage rose +1.7 pts to 247.1%, the highest on record, while Net leverage fell -0.9 pts to 88.2% (not quite an all time high, but still 87th percentile).

    Looking at the composition of hedge fund purchases, the overall GS Prime book was modestly net bought again in the past week (+0.15 SDs), driven by risk-on flows as long buys outpaced short sales. Specifically, single Names were net bought while Macro Products (Index and ETF combined) were net sold. North America and to a lesser extent Europe were net bought driven by long buys, while DM Asia and EM Asia were net sold driven by short sales. 8 of 11 global sectors were net bought led in $ terms by Consumer Disc, Health Care, Staples and Real Estate, while Info Tech, Materials, and Financials were net sold.

    Meanwhile, continuing the trend first observed last week when we noted that hedge funds shorted tech shares for 9 of the previous 10 days, Goldman notes that Info Tech saw the largest net selling in nine months as managers reduced exposure for a third straight week. And in a surprise reversal to months of bullishness on IT, GS Prime points out that hedge funds are currently Underweight Info Tech stocks by -1.4% vs. the MSCI World, the lowest level since last November and in the 3rd percentile vs. the past five years.

    Some more details from the Goldman reports:

    • Info Tech, the worst performing sector this week, was also by far the most net sold sector on the GS Prime book driven by short sales outpacing long buys 7 to 1.
    • Info Tech stocks were net sold for a third straight week and saw the largest week/week $ net selling since last August (-1.6 SDs). Net trading flow diverged on a subsector level – Semis & Semi Equip, Software, and Electronic Equip were the most net sold, while Comm Equip and IT Services were the most net bought.
    • Hedge funds are currently U/W Info Tech stocks by -1.4% vs. the MSCI World, the lowest level since last November and in the 3rd percentile vs. the past five years.
    • From an industry group standpoint, hedge funds are still O/W Software & Svcs by +4.7% (28th percentile) and U/W Semis & Semi Equip and Tech Hardware by -1.6% (13th percentile) and -4.3% (18th percentile), respectively

    And while hedge funds shorted tech, the Goldman US Consumer Discretionary sector saw the largest net buying in three months driven by E-Commerce stocks. As a result, the GS Prime book is now O/W US Consumer Discretionary by +3.3% vs. the S&P 500, which is in the 9th percentile vs. the past year and in the 50th percentile vs. the past five years.

    • In $ terms, Consumer Discretionary was the most net bought US sector on the GS Prime book this week, driven by risk-on flows with long buys outpacing short sales 4 to 1.
    • The sector’s aggregate long/short ratio (MV) on the GS Prime book ended the week at 2.53, which is in the 2nd percentile vs. the past year and in the 77th percentile vs. the past five years. The GS Prime book is now O/W US Consumer Discretionary stocks by +3.3% vs. the S&P 500, which is in the 9th percentile vs. the past year and in the 50th percentile vs. the past five years.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/10/2021 – 20:50

  • Wildfires Rage In Arizona; Southwestern US Faces Megadrought 
    Wildfires Rage In Arizona; Southwestern US Faces Megadrought 

    The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has warned against a megadrought approaching dangerous levels in the southwestern US. Wildfire conditions have been ripe across the region as Red Flag Warnings have been sprouting up from California to Texas. 

    Arid conditions in Arizona appear to have sparked a duo of wildfires burning in the state, forcing thousands of folks to flee as firefighters struggle to contain the blazes. 

    One of the fires rages just south of Prescott National Forest, located in north-central Arizona. Mandatory evacuations orders forced thousands from their homes in Minnehaha, Fort Misery, and Horsethief Basin, while Crown King was placed on alert Sunday. The fire has been dubbed the Tussock Fire.

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    “There is significant danger to you, gather necessary items and go,” read a Facebook post operated by the Arizona Bureau of Land Management (BLM). The Facebook page continued to say the Tussock Fire is “approximately 3,500 acres; 0% containment.” 

    The second wildfire is approximately 2,560 acres and stood at 35% contained as of Sunday evening. The fire is called Copper Canyon Fire and is burning 3 miles northeast of Globe in Gila County, located in the state’s central part. 

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    The US Drought Monitor as of last week shows more than 40% of the country is in drought coverage. Most of the “extreme” to “exceptional” drought is in the southwestern US. 

    “There have only been four times in the history of the drought monitor that we have seen more than 40% US drought coverage as we come into early May,” said USDA Meteorologist Brad Rippey. “The current US drought coverage is 46.6% of the lower 48 states in drought. That is a 2.6% increase from what we saw five weeks ago.”

    Fears of another 1930s Great Depression-style drought are quickly materializing in the southwestern US. 

    Utah and Nevada recorded their driest years in more than 126 years in 2020, while Arizona and Colorado had their second driest and New Mexico its fourth. The Southwest, plagued with “severe,” “extreme,” and “exceptional” drought conditions, suggests similarities to the Great Depression’s Dust Bowl of the 1930s (read: “Return Of The Dust Bowl? The “Megadrought” In The Southwest Is Really Starting To Escalate”). 

    Besides escalating wildfires and water shortages, farmers in the western half of the country are frightened of a significant agricultural disaster this growing season as the drought rages. The exceptional dryness could result in crop failures that would ultimately send agricultural prices even higher. So much for that “transitory” inflation, the Federal Reserve continues to squawk about… 

    Now Dust Bowl conditions have returned, wildfires begin to break out, and farmers are panicking about crop failures. But don’t worry, the Federal Reserve will just print more money in the name of climate change. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/10/2021 – 20:30

  • Labor Shortage Sets Off "Inflationary Time Bomb" McDonalds Franchises Warn, Fearing Big Mac Price Hike
    Labor Shortage Sets Off “Inflationary Time Bomb” McDonalds Franchises Warn, Fearing Big Mac Price Hike

    An independent group of McDonald’s franchisees warns higher wages, signing bonuses, paid interviews are no longer working to attract new workers as generous unemployment benefits worsen the labor shortage, according to Bussiness Insider. 

    The National Owners Association (NOA), an independent, self-funded advocacy group of McDonald’s franchisees, sent a letter to its members Sunday criticizing “hiring challenges on the “perverse effects of the current unemployment benefits.” 

    The letter pointed to last week’s massive April payrolls employment miss, which consensus expected a whopping 1 million number, and some forecasters calling as high as 2+ million, were shocked with a 266k print. 

    “What’s going on here? When people can make more staying at home than going to work, they will stay at home,” the letter read, which was obtained by Insider. “It’s that simple. We don’t blame them. We fault the system.”

    The letter went on to say, “when higher wages, signing bonuses, paid interviews no longer work, we have a problem.”  

    Neema Ardebili, the vice president of global franchise and strategic partnerships at ADP, told Insider that the working-poor collecting stimmy checks are making more money sitting on the couch than actually working. 

    “Natural human behavior is to choose to receive more money while staying at home, than working for a highly demanding job — especially with the amount of stress that is being put on employees right now,” Ardebili said. 

    NOA Board said franchisees must increase pay and benefits to attract workers. These additional labor costs will be passed onto the consumer in the form of higher Big Mac prices. 

    “Inflation is the flip side to all of these changes,” the letter reads. “Price increases are happening everywhere you look and will continue as employers pass along these added costs. We will do the same. A Big Mac will get more expensive.”

    “Our government officials need to know what is happening out in the real world,” the letter continues. “They need to know what they are creating; an inflationary time bomb.” 

    Meanwhile, White House press secretary, Jen Psaki, is utterly oblivious to the unemployment benefits disincentivizing people from wanting to return to work. 

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    And now, President Biden is out Monday afternoon saying, “anyone collecting unemployment who is offered a suitable job must take the job or lose their unemployment benefits.” It sounds like Biden is on damage control for his failed progressive policies. 

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    What’s clear is that the White House will never admit their progressive unemployment policies, borderline universal basic income, have been a complete disaster as it has prevented a labor market recovery.

    Now the Chamber of Commerce has urged an end to Biden’s pandemic handouts as “paying people not to work is dampening what should be a stronger jobs market and is hurting the overall recovery”…

    … or listen to NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg who said that “small business owners are competing with the pandemic and increased unemployment benefits that are keeping some workers out of the labor force”…

    … or listen to restaurant legend Wolfgang Puck who said, “I don’t think we should pay people to stay home and not work if there are jobs available.”

    To attract workers, low-income workers, mainly under the $40k per year mark, employers must offer higher wages and other benefits equal or greater to what the government is paying, thus creating soaring labor costs for labor-intensive fast-food companies that will pass along the costs to consumers. 

    The Federal Reserve’s narrative that inflation is “transitory” is a load of crap. Prepare for much higher costs at fast-food joints. 

    Bank of America recently warned clients: “Buckle up! Inflation is here.” 

    Fast-food workers might get their wage increases in the short run, but in the longer run, this will force companies to quickly adopt automation and artificial intelligence to lower labor costs, displacing millions of workers this decade. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/10/2021 – 20:10

  • Has The Mainstream Media Finally Turned Against Bill Gates?
    Has The Mainstream Media Finally Turned Against Bill Gates?

    Not long after we pointed out a report from the Daily Beast which traced the tensions in the marriage of Bill and Melinda Gates to Bill’s relationship with convicted pedophile Jeffrey Epstein, the Wall Street Journal has followed up with more reporting that confirms that Melinda Gates started consulting divorce attorneys as far back as 2019, before the pandemic thrust her husband back into the global spotlight as the world’s de facto vaccine czar.

    Documents obtained by WSJ show the couple negotiated their divorce throughout the pandemic.

    Ms. Gates consulted with divorce lawyers roughly two years before she filed for divorce from Mr. Gates, saying their marriage was “irretrievably broken,” according to people familiar with the matter and documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.

    As the Daily Beast also reported, tensions in their marriage can be traced back to a New York Times report claiming that Gates had met with Epstein several times, and that he had once stayed late into the night at Epstein’s Manhattan townhouse. Their meetings, according to Gates’ people, reportedly focused on issues of philanthropy. The pair first announced their split a week ago, and since then, the world has been waiting to learn more about how they plan to split their $130 billion-plus fortune.

    But what’s almost more notable than the details report by WSJ and the Daily Beast, is the fact that the MSM seems to be jumping on the story that Bill Gates’ relationship with Jeffrey Epstein directly led to the dissolution of his marriage. 

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    This is a big deal because, as we reported more than a year ago, Bill Gates and the Gates Foundation have built up one of the world’s most formidable media-manipulation machines to help silence Gates’s growing chorus of critics.

    Here’s a snippet from a Columbia Journalism Review story on how Gates manipulates the press:

    Gatess generosity appears to have helped foster an increasingly friendly media environment for the worlds most visible charity. Twenty years ago, journalists scrutinized Bill Gatess initial foray into philanthropy as a vehicle to enrich his software company, or a PR exercise to salvage his battered reputation following Microsofts bruising antitrust battle with the Department of Justice. Today, the foundation is most often the subject of soft profiles and glowing editorials describing its good works.

    During the pandemic, news outlets have widely looked to Bill Gates as a public health expert on covideven though Gates has no medical training and is not a public official. PolitiFact and USA Today (run by the Poynter Institute and Gannett, respectivelyboth of which have received funds from the Gates Foundation) have even used their fact-checking platforms to defend Gates from false conspiracy theories and misinformation, like the idea that the foundation has financial investments in companies developing covid vaccines and therapies. In fact, the foundations website and most recent tax forms clearly show investments in such companies, including Gilead and CureVac.

    In the same way that the news media has given Gates an outsize voice in the pandemic, the foundation has long used its charitable giving to shape the public discourse on everything from global health to education to agriculturea level of influence that has landed Bill Gates on Forbess list of the most powerful people in the world. The Gates Foundation can point to important charitable accomplishments over the past two decadeslike helping drive down polio and putting new funds into fighting malariabut even these efforts have drawn expert detractors who say that Gates may actually be introducing harm, or distracting us from more important, lifesaving public health projects.

    As we have reported, Gates’ ties to Epstein are much deeper than a simple prearranged meeting or two on the subject of philanthropy. The Daily Mail once reported that Gates was a guest aboard Epstein’s plane.

    When confronted about this, a representative for Gates said he wasn’t aware the plane belonged to Epstein!

    Meanwhile, employees of the Gates foundation also visited Epstein’s mansion on multiple occasions, while Epstein also “spoke with the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and JPMorgan Chase about a proposed multibillion-dollar charitable fund — an arrangement that had the potential to generate enormous fees for Mr. Epstein,” according to the Times.

    Two of Gates’ closest advisors developed close relationships with Epstein, and later introduced him to Gates.

    Gates once said in an email that he found Epstein’s “lifestyle” to be “intriguing”, though he immediately noted that it wouldn’t suit him.

    With all this preamble once again coming out in the press, we can’t help but wonder: is a Bill Gates accuser about to step forward?

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/10/2021 – 19:55

  • Free Speech Inc. – How Democrats Have Found A New But Shaky Faith In Corporate Speech
    Free Speech Inc. – How Democrats Have Found A New But Shaky Faith In Corporate Speech

    Authored by Jonathan Turley,

    Below is an updated version of my column in the Hill on Facebook’s decision to uphold the ban on former president Donald Trump. Notably, this weekend, Twitter took it upon itself to add a gratuitous response to an observation made by Donald Trump Jr. after he tweeted “Biden isn’t the next FDR [Franklin Delano Roosevelt] he’s the next Jimmy Carter.” Twitter took it upon itself to say that many are “confused” by the remark since Carter was a great humanitarian and noble prize winner. It was a telling moment. These companies now act as either censors or officious intermeddlers when it comes to comments made on the platforms. They view themselves as a party to any postings and that viewpoints must be corrected or clarified to advance the corporate position.

    Here is the column:

    After Facebook’s oversight board this week upheld the social media giant’s continuing ban of former President Trump, the response of Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) captured the visceral joy of many on the left: She posted a series of laughing emojis.

    Welcome to Free Speech, Inc.: the Democratic incorporation of free speech built around the a presumption of corporate censorship (for some).

    Of course, Democrats insist they are not attacking free speech, just combating “disinformation.” After all, they say, private companies have every right to control speech — unless you are, say, a bakery opposed to preparing a cake for a same-sex wedding, or a company contributing to political causes. The current mantra defending Facebook’s corporate speech rights seems strikingly out of sync with years of Democrats and political activists demanding the curtailment of such rights.

    When Masterpiece Cakeshop in Colorado refused on religious grounds to make a cake for a same-sex wedding, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) denounced the bakery’s claim of free speech: “It was never about a cake — it’s about making sure no one has a license to discriminate against LGBTQ+ Americans.” When the Supreme Court ruled in the Citizens United case that corporations have free speech rights to participate in politics, Warren was appalled. She has long rejected the notion that corporations have the constitutional rights like individuals: “Corporations are not people. People have hearts. They have kids. They get jobs. They get sick. They cry. They dance. They live. They love. And they die.”

    Notably, Warren felt that one company (Masterpiece Cakeshop) can be forced to speak while another corporation (Facebook) should be able to stop others from speaking.

    When Facebook barred Trump, Warren declared: 

    “I’m glad that Donald Trump is not going to be on Facebook. Suits me.”

    House Intelligence Committee Chair Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) also celebrated and added:

    “Facebook must ban him. Which is to say, forever.”

    When free speech concerns are raised over corporate censorship, Democrats often drop references to “free speech” violations and instead address “First Amendment” violations. Indeed, when Trump objected to the ban on Twitter as “banning free speech,” a host of media outlets ran stories like: “Fact Check: Did Twitter Violate President Trump’s First Amendment Rights?” Experts like Wayne State University law professor Jonathan Weinberg chimed in that, under the First Amendment, a company “gets to choose who it does business with and who it doesn’t.”

    Likewise, when questioned about the Board’s decision and its impact on free speech, board member and Stanford Law Professor Michael McConnell dismissed such concerns by insisting that the First Amendment does not apply to Facebook and “no judge in the country would rule” in favor of the former president.”

    The First Amendment is not the full or exclusive embodiment of free speech, however. It addresses just one of the dangers to free speech posed by government regulation. Many of us view free speech as a human right. Corporate censorship of social media clearly impacts free speech, and replacing Big Brother with a cadre of Little Brothers actually allows for far greater control of free expression.

    This is even more concerning when politicians openly pressure companies to increase censorship. In one hearing last year, Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) actually warned Big Tech CEOs that he and his colleagues were watching to be sure there was no “backsliding or retrenching” from “robust content modification.”

    Obviously, these politicians would insist that the Masterpiece Cakeshop case is about discrimination while the Facebook controversy is about disinformation. However, some of us have long viewed all of these controversies as about free speech. Indeed, taking a free speech approach avoids the hypocrisy on both sides.

    Under a free speech approach, cakeshop owners have a right to refuse to prepare cakes that offend their deep-felt values, including religious, political or social values. Thus, a Jewish cakeshop owner should be able to decline to make a “Mein Kampf” cake for a local skinhead group, a Black owner to decline to make a white supremacist-themed cake, or a gay baker to decline to make a cake with anti-LGBT slogans. While these bakers cannot discriminate in selling prepared cakes, the act of decorating a cake is a form of expression, and requiring such preparation is a form of compelled speech.

    In the same way, NFL teams have a free speech right to prevent kneeling or other political or social demonstrations by players during games, Citizen’s United has a right to support political causes — and, yes, Facebook has a right to censor speech on its platform.

    Free speech also allows the rest of us to oppose these businesses over their policies. We have a right to refuse to subsidize or support companies that engage in racial or content discrimination. Thus, with social media companies, Congress should not afford these companies legal immunity or other protections when they engage in censorship.

    These companies once were viewed as neutral platforms for people to exchange views — people who affirmatively “friend” or invite the views of others. If Big Tech wants to be treated like a telephone company, it must act like a telephone company. We wouldn’t tolerate AT&T interrupting calls to object to some misleading conversation, or cutting the line for those who misinform others.

    As a neutral platform for communications, telephone companies receive special legal and economic status under our laws. Yet, it sometimes seems Facebook wants to be treated like AT&T but act like the DNC.

    In defending Big Tech’s right to censor people, University of California at Irvine law professor Richard Hasen declared that “Twitter is a private company, and it is entitled to include or exclude people as it sees fit.” That is clearly true under the First Amendment. It also should be true of others who seek to speak (or not speak) as corporations, from bakeries to sports teams.

    Yet, when the Supreme Court sent back the Masterpiece Cakeshop case in 2018 for further proceedings, an irate House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) declared: “Masterpiece Cakeshop is a commercial bakery open to the public, and such services clearly must be made available to the public on equal terms … No business or organization open to the public should hide their discriminatory practices behind the guise of religious liberty.” But Pelosi applauded when social media companies barred some members of the public based on viewpoint discrimination on subjects ranging from climate change to vaccines to elections.

    The difference, of course, is that Masterpiece Cakeshop was willing to sell cakes to anyone but refused to express viewpoints that conflict with the owners’ religious beliefs. Conversely, social media companies like Twitter and Facebook are barring individuals, including a world leader like Trump, entirely from their “shop.” And, taking it one step further, Facebook has declared it will even ban the “voice of Donald Trump.”

    Big Tech is allowed to be arbitrary and capricious in corporate censorship. However, our leaders should follow a principled approach to corporate speech that does not depend on what views are being silenced. Because Elizabeth Warren was right. This “never was about a cake” or a tweet or “likes” for that matter. It was always about free speech.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/10/2021 – 19:50

  • 14% Of Americans Own Crypto: Here Is A Profile Of The Average HODLer
    14% Of Americans Own Crypto: Here Is A Profile Of The Average HODLer

    According to the latest just released report on the State of the Crypto Market from Gemini, 2020 which polled 3,000 U.S. adults, ages 18 to 65 with $40,000 or more in household income (survey respondents were polled from October 19-November 16, 2020, and included 921 self-identifying current cryptocurrency owners and 1,697 consumers who were interested in learning more about cryptocurrency), the exchange estimates that roughly 14% of the U.S. population owns cryptocurrency. This translates to 21.2 million U.S. adults who own cryptocurrency, and other studies estimate this number to be even higher. This number is expected to double in 2021.

    Gemini then set forth to profile who exactly is the average crypto holder. Here’s what it found:

    Crypto skews young, male and white: 74% of crypto holders are men, 77% of all crypto owners are under the age of 45, and 71% are white. The data shows that the “average” cryptocurrency owner is a 38-year-old male making approximately $111k a year.

    To be sure, not everyone is a HODLer: there are roughly 4.5 times more who are “cryptocurious.”

    The crypto-curious audience is defined as those who do not currently own cryptocurrency but indicate either wanting to learn more or planning to buy soon. This group is significant in size, comprising 63% of U.S. adults, and has the potential to disrupt what we think of as the “average” crypto holder.

    The most bullish case for crypto? Roughly 13% of U.S. adults plan to purchase cryptocurrency in the next 12 months. This adds up to approximately 19.3 million adults — which would nearly double the current crypto investor population. In taking a deeper look at the “crypto-curious” audience, we see some emerging trends that have the potential to change the profile of the average crypto holder.

    While just 26% of current crypto holders are women, there is potential for this to change significantly. Women account for more than half (53%) of those interested in getting into crypto soon, representing a major potential shift. The next wave of crypto buyers is also likely to be slightly older than current holders — with an average age of 44. They are also likely to have slightly less money to invest than those who are already crypto holders and are more likely to live in a small town or rural area than in an urban area, though it’s also worth noting that the crypto-curious audience remains largely white: 76% of the crypto-curious audience identifies as white or caucasian.

    Looking closer at the female breakdown of crypto-curious consumers, Gemini spots an interesting shift in age: 45% of current female crypto owners are under the age of 35, and just 4% are 55 or older. But among crypto-curious women, only about a quarter are under the age of 35, and a notable 25% are 55 or older. Women are not only poised to make up a larger portion of the next wave of crypto buyers, they’re also more likely to be women nearing retirement. This shift in gender, age, average income, and location indicates that crypto is starting to broaden its appeal away from an investment solely reserved for those with a large amount of assets to one that is more mainstream and accessible for the average person.

    Here is a full demographic breakdown of the current investor population vs the crypto curious:

    In looking at the survey results, it becomes clear that crypto awareness is spreading, and acceptance is becoming more and more mainstream; the survey revealed that there are many more people who are crypto curious than who are completely disinterested in crypto, which is promising for the future of crypto’s growth.

    Based on the percentage of respondents indicating that they plan to purchase crypto in the next 12 months, this could mean 19.3 million U.S. adults entering the crypto market very soon. And given what we know about the demographics of the crypto-curious audience, the profile of the average crypto holder could also soon be changing in a very welcome way. The future of crypto looks bright, and we are excited about the influx of a more diverse audience to continue to shape that future

    Going back to the survey, the next question tried to pintpoint what the average US adult knows about crypto. Not surprisingly, here it appears to mostly be all about bitcoin even though it is Ethereum that has become the most exciting token in recent weeks ( as we said it would). Some more details from the report:

    While the group of crypto-curious U.S. adults is growing, general knowledge about cryptocurrency seems to mirror what we hear in the news: Bitcoin is almost synonymous with crypto, but few have heard of other coins. The vast majority of owners or cryptocurious (95%) have heard of bitcoin, while little more than one-third have heard of Ethereum.

    Education appears to be central to converting crypto-curious consumers from simply interested in crypto to actual crypto holders. Over one-third (39%) of those who don’t yet own cryptocurrency consider themselves “somewhat or very” knowledgeable about  cryptocurrency. This indicates that consumers are attempting to learn before they dive in head first, but there’s still a significant opportunity for consumers to learn more: 60% of the crypto-curious identify as “not very” or “not at all” knowledgeable about cryptocurrency today. More than two-thirds of U.S. adults (77%) indicate they are open to learning more about digital assets, whether they already own cryptocurrency or not. As the current generation of crypto holders is well-educated — 90% identify as at least somewhat knowledgeable and 45% consider themselves extremely or very knowledgeable — this shows us that the potential “next  wave” of crypto buyers will continue to be savvy and well researched about crypto’s purpose and potential.

    What is perhaps most surprising, is that the level of reported knowledge shows the vast majority of crypto investors are taking the time to thoroughly understand this space before investing. They’re thoughtful and betting on real promise versus trying out something trendy for fun. The crypto curious audience is taking a similar approach: those who want or plan to buy soon appear to also take time to educate themselves on the industry first. It’s worth noting that these existing crypto holders aren’t just early adopters who have had years to immerse themselves in the space: 26% of current crypto owners first bought crypto within the past year. This indicates again that the market, as expected, is made up of people who take the time to understand and research before investing in crypto.

    Next, the survey looked at what crypto holders own, and how they trade.

    It found that more than a quarter (26%) of current owners first acquired crypto in the last year, and a full 68% purchased crypto within the last two years. This shows crypto is no longer a niche investment reserved for early-adopters. Widespread interest is growing, and growing fast.

    While new cryptocurrencies emerge nearly every day, bitcoin still reigns supreme as not only the coin most people have heard of, but also the coin most crypto holders own. Nearly 9 in 10 current crypto owners currently own or have owned bitcoin (87%), compared to ether at 36%, bitcoin cash at 22% and litecoin at 21%. Bitcoin also appears to have the most staying power: while 87% report they have at some point owned bitcoin, 84% still have it in their portfolio. By comparison, 21% of crypto investors have owned litecoin and only 15% still currently own it.

    * * *

    One final discovery – and perhaps the least surprising one for the notoriously illiquid space where the float is a tiny fraction of any given token – is that more than two-thirds of crypto investors are indeed HODLers,

    The large majority of current crypto owners say they buy and hold crypto for its long-term investment potential. More than two-thirds (69%) buy and hold, compared to the 36% who actively buy and sell as a means to achieve profits and the 27% who actively use it to make purchases on the internet.

    A look at the crypto-curious audience reveals a similar split: half of the crypto curious (54%) reported wanting to buy and hold crypto as a long-term investment, while 39% indicated they are interested in actively trading to make a profit.

    When it comes to trading activity, investors run the gamut: a quarter of crypto investors trade, buy or sell only a few times a year, while more than another quarter (27%) trade, buy, or sell at least several times a month. This indicates that there’s a mix of “buy and hold” strategists, crypto holders who continue to buy more, and those who experiment with regular trading to achieve short-term profits.

    Source

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/10/2021 – 19:30

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  • Spaniards Celebrate Curfew End With 'Freedom' Fiestas 
    Spaniards Celebrate Curfew End With ‘Freedom’ Fiestas 

    As the clock struck midnight in Spain, thousands of people poured into the city streets in the early hours of Sunday, celebrating the official end of the local coronavirus curfew. 

    The 11 p.m. curfew was lifted in 13 of the country’s 17 regions at midnight. Footage from the beaches of Barcelona to the streets of Madrid saw thousands of young people dancing, hugging, and chanting “freedom.”  

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    After a strict stay-at-home order went into effect at the start of the virus pandemic in early 2020, the country’s second state of emergency kicked in last October. It granted people more freedoms but still, late-night curfews restricted social gatherings.

    Nationwide, there are 198 cases of COVID-19 per 100,000 population. Some regions are experiencing higher rates, like Navarra, which will maintain restrictions until the spread is controlled. 

    In Aragon, the cases stand around 297 per 100,000. Authorities are continuing the curfew in that region. In the Balearic Islands, where the infection rate is 59 per 100,000, the government will maintain the curfew.

    The highest infection rate is seen in Basque Country, with an infection rate of around 463 per 100,000. However, efforts to maintain the curfew there were scrapped by the Basque High Court on Friday.

    “I am a bit worried, although the most vulnerable people are already vaccinated, I think we should still be careful of the cases increasing again,” Natalia Pardo Lorente, a biomedical researcher at the Centre for Genomic Regulation in Barcelona, told CNN Sunday. “Even while the curfew was still active Friday, I saw large groups of people drinking in the Ciutadella, and it was after ten at night.

    “Is there really a need to be gathering in groups of 100 people or more in parks? Why is it not enough to meet your close friends and that’s it?” Lorente added.

    Spain has been hard hit by the pandemic. More than 3.5 million infections have been recorded, along with 78,000 deaths. Across Europe, Spain is the fourth-hardest hit country in Europe, behind France, the UK, and Italy.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/10/2021 – 02:45

  • The Butterfly Effect Re-Setting The Global Paradigm
    The Butterfly Effect Re-Setting The Global Paradigm

    Authored by Alastair Crooke via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    The shift of paradigm centred on the U.S. pivot away from West Asia naturally impacts on Iran’s JCPOA calculus…

    In chaos theory, the butterfly effect is the idea that small things can have non-linear impacts on a complex system. The concept is imagined with a butterfly flapping its wings, and though this, in itself, would be unlikely to cause a tornado, nonetheless small events can cause cascades of change within a complex system. And so to Europe, where Germany is changing. The Green Party is flapping its wings in the spatial void left by Merkel’s expected departure. And though the Party, some years ago, was almost wholly Corbinite (i.e. classic anti-establishment), today, beneath its liberal surface, the Green rhetoric is something different – It is fiercely North Atlanticist, pro-NATO and anti-Russian (even quasi neo-liberal).

    Today, the European political zeitgeist is changing. It is soaking up the Biden ‘we must join together to curb Chinese and Russian behaviours’ meme. Of course, this shift cannot all be laid at the door of the German Greens; nonetheless, they seem destined to emerge with a pivotal role in the polity of the pivotal EU state, as the Green emergence becomes somehow iconic of the butterfly wing effect.

    The language of a human rights ideology defined in a multitude of gender and diversity iterations has seized the Brussels discourse. Some might welcome this development in principle, viewing it as righting ancient injustices. However, it should be understood that it is rooted not so much in human compassion, but is firmly seated in power dynamics, and, what’s more, a particularly dangerous set of power dynamics.

    One the one hand, the ‘Biden agenda’ is primarily about ousting a deeply-rooted constituency of Americans (Red America) permanently from power.

    He says it explicitly.

    And on the other, as Blinken repeats and endlessly insists, the U.S.-shaped rules-based order must prevail in the world. Biden’s ‘progressive values’ are but the tool to mobilise politics to achieve these ends. (Biden in his long Senate career was not noted for being progressive.)

    The flapping of the German butterfly wing in Europe enables and facilitates Washington’s sought-after geo-strategic paradigm change. The Cold War, which has so seared itself into the American foreign-policy mindset, and implanted too its toxic residue of visceral Russophobia, just ignored China.

    It was assumed that China’s turn toward a western-style economic model simply would flush away the communist colouring – via the agency of an emergent consumerist middle class. Now, Washington observes China unobtrusively to have shed its chrysalis only to reveal the unfolding wings of a superpower – both rivalling, and potentially besting, America. The Biden circles want now to focus America’s power entirely on outdoing and out-rivalling China.

    Whereas Trump was obsessed by Iran, the Biden team is not. It is keener to pivot away from Trump’s passion with Iran (and the troublesome West Asia, more generally), to focus on bringing Europe to a different ‘pivot’– that of cultivating its hostility towards Russia (a project, led by Britain’s propaganda campaign, and by certain East European states who seem to have become ‘the tail’ wagging the EU policy ‘dog’). For Washington Beltway circles stuck in the old Cold War mindset, Russia remains a ‘minor economy and regional power’ that does not merit America’s full attention – unlike China, which is a major economic power, with military capabilities at the very least, on a par with those of the U.S.

    It is seen to be enough (in DC) for Europe to be mandated to do the ‘heavy lifting’ of attrition against Russia, with the U.S. ‘leading from behind’ – as Obama did in Libya. Victoria Nuland, of Ukraine regime change fame, is now confirmed by the Senate as a top State Department official.

    Why should Biden circles want Europe to pivot against Russia and China? Well, it is the old Mackinder rule: the heartland must never be allowed to unite. China and Russia (and Iran) must be kept apart, and be divided through ‘triangulation’, as Dr Kissinger used to say. First it was Afghanistan that was the ‘swamp’ in which Russia (then USSR) was to be mired; then Syria; and now it is to be the Ukraine that is supposed to keep Russia pre-occupied and on edge – Containment, whist the U.S. focusses on isolating China.

    In this vein, the EU parliament, which ‘has no battalions’ (like the Pope, in the old quip), issued its Promethean ultimatum to Moscow: Should Russia again threaten Ukrainian sovereignty, the EU must make clear that the consequences for such a violation of international law and norms would be severe. MEPs agreed, “such a scenario must result in an immediate halt to EU imports of oil and gas from Russia, the exclusion of Russia from the SWIFT payment system, and the freezing of assets and cancellation of visas for Europe of all oligarchs tied to the Russian authorities”.

    But when it is observed that this very hostile resolution was carried by 569 votes to 67, it is clear that this exercise had considerable political heft behind it (a case of the Biden circles again ‘leading from behind’ perchance?). The EU, in the same week, also censored China for “endangering peace” in the South China Sea, and sent a naval expeditionary force there.

    And so the Europeans are falling into line with Blinken’s demand for co-ordinated action and rhetoric on China and Russia, it would seem.

    None of these events will have surprised Moscow or Beijing, which earlier resolved to resist western attempts at divide and rule. Nonetheless, these western ploys do entail high risk. The EU Ukrainian ultimatum, backed by such a huge parliamentary majority, hints that a further round of tensions over the Donbass is anticipated (and is being prepared).

    This expectation surely lay behind the broadside out from the EU parliament. If so, they should know that Russia will not abandon Donbass to Kiev (Presiden Putin warned plainly that Russia’s red lines should not be mis-construed, in his recent address to the Federal Assembly). The EU resolution thus smacks of preparing of the ground for NATO intervention of some type.

    No doubt, the EU sees its role as fore-staging its ‘values’ as a part of lending weight to its strategic autonomy ambitions being taken seriously. But this comes at a price. Ukraine is not under Zelensky’s control (there are other players – hotheads with different agendas). Anything can happen. The EU ultimately will be the one to pay the price for any outbreak of military hostilities.

    And for what? Re-constituting warm relations with the Democrats (as in the old days)? It all speaks to short-termism, well shy of any discernable strategy.

    And the risks are not just kinetic: Russia, China and U.S. do not seek military escalation, yet U.S. policies towards China (on Taiwan) and Russia (concerning Ukraine) may be taking them toward inadvertent confrontation.

    They are economic too: Europe desperately needs Chinese investment and technology – and Russian gas – if its economy is not to collapse into prolonged recession. It was only ‘yesterday’, as it were, that EU leaders were singing the refrain of the EU should stand aloof from the heavy-weight mega-competition.

    The political risk for the EU is that Biden’s political honeymoon may quickly run out of steam. His ramming radical legislation through Congress with no bi-partisan support is levered on a hangover from the pre-election era – of Democratic hatred for anything Trump. That sentiment however, is already draining away with the passage of time. Trump no longer monopolises the headlines. The carte blanche provided to Biden by this emotional animus to his predecessor may quieten and further erode, even before he attempts to move from the progressive end of the spectrum to the centre of politics – which he must do in good time for 2022 if he is to appeal to middle of the road Democrats, and not just his Leftist constituency.

    Biden’s vulnerability in the 2022 mid-term elections is underscored by the fact that apart from his handling of the coronavirus, the majority of Americans disapprove of his performance in all other areas. The U.S. might whiplash off in a different direction, leaving the EU clinging to a stranded asset (Biden).

    The shift of paradigm centred on the U.S. pivot away from West Asia naturally impacts on Iran’s JCPOA calculus too: With the U.S. pursuing a 5th generation full-spectrum ‘knock-back’ delivered to the China-Russia axis, Iran cannot (and will not) allow itself to be positioned as hors de combat, bogged down in lengthy negotiations over the JCPOA. The archetypal exemplar of the Imam at Kerbala will require Iran to adopt a principled stand with its allies – and with ‘the Axis’. Already, we see Saudi Arabia responding, in its own way, to the paradigm shift – through opening channels with both Tehran and Damascus.

    So, to where will this lead? Significantly, Richard Haas and Charles Kupchan, from the ‘oracle’ that is the Council for Foreign Relations, argue that America, having renewed its standing, will ultimately itself have to pivot towards a new Concert of Powers. They write:

    “Pax Americana is now running on fumes. The United States and its traditional democratic partners have neither the capability nor the will to anchor an interdependent international system and universalize the liberal order that they erected after World War II … Establishing a global concert would not be a panacea. Bringing the world’s heavyweights to the table hardly ensures a consensus among them. Indeed, although the Concert of Europe preserved peace for decades after it was formed, France and the United Kingdom ultimately faced off with Russia in the Crimean War. Russia is again at loggerheads with its European neighbors over the Crimean region, underscoring the elusive nature of great-power solidarity … The United States and its democratic partners have every reason to revive the solidarity of the West. However they should stop pretending that the global triumph of the order they backed since World War II is within reach”.

    It seems hardly credible though, that Washington could make such an existential psychic transformation of ‘stopping pretending’ without first undergoing a major crisis. Is that what these authors anticipate – a Fourth Turning?

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/10/2021 – 02:00

  • Antony Blinken Continues To Lecture The World on Values His Administration Aggressively Violates: Greenwald
    Antony Blinken Continues To Lecture The World on Values His Administration Aggressively Violates: Greenwald

    Authored by Glenn Greenwald via greenwald.substack.com,

    Continuing his world tour doling out righteous lectures to the world, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Thursday proclaimed — in a sermon you have to hear to believe — that few things are more sacred in a democracy than “independent journalism.” Speaking to Radio Free Europe, Blinken paid homage to “World Press Freedom Day”; claimed that “the United States stands strongly with independent journalism”; explained that “the foundation of any democratic system” entails “holding leaders accountable” and “informing citizens”; and warned that “countries that deny freedom of the press are countries that don’t have a lot of confidence in themselves or in their systems.”

    U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken speaks on the importance of independence journalism, May 6, 2021 (Radio Free Europe); Julian Assange arrives at Westminster Magistrates’ Court in London in his attempt to resist extradition by the Biden administration (Photo by Victoria Jones/PA Images via Getty Images)

    The rhetorical cherry on top of that cake came when he posed this question: “What is to be afraid of in informing the people and holding leaders accountable?” The Secretary of State then issued this vow: “Everywhere journalism and freedom of the press is challenged, we will stand with journalists and with that freedom.” Since I know that I would be extremely skeptical if someone told me that those words had just come out Blinken’s mouth, I present you here with the unedited one-minute-fifty-two-second video clip of him saying exactly this:

    That the Biden administration is such a stalwart believer in the sanctity of independent journalism and is devoted to defending it wherever it is threatened would come as a great surprise to many, many people. Among them would be Julian Assange, the founder of WikiLeaks and the person responsible for breaking more major stories about the actions of top U.S. officials than virtually all U.S. journalists employed in the corporate press combined.

    Currently, Assange is sitting in a cell in the British high-security Belmarsh prison because the Biden administration is not only trying to extradite him to stand trial on espionage charges for having published documents embarrassing to the U.S. Government and the Democratic Party but also has appealed a British judge’s January ruling rejecting that extradition request. The Biden administration is doing all of this, noted The New York Times, despite the fact that “human rights and civil liberties groups had asked the [administration] to abandon the effort to prosecute Mr. Assange, arguing that the case . . . could establish a precedent posing a grave threat to press freedoms” — press freedoms, exactly the value which Blinken just righteously spent the week celebrating and vowing to uphold.

    It was the Trump DOJ which brought those charges against Assange after then-CIA Director Mike Pompeo claimed in a 2017 speech that WikiLeaks has long “pretended that America’s First Amendment freedoms shield them from justice,” and then warned: “they may have believed that, but they are wrong.” Pomepo added — invoking the mentality of all states that persecute and imprison those who report effectively on them — that “to give [WikiLeaks] the space to crush us with misappropriated secrets is a perversion of what our great Constitution stands for. It ends now.” 

    But like so many other Trump policies concerning press freedoms — from defending the Trump DOJ’s use of warrants to obtain journalists’ telephone records, to demanding Edward Snowden be kept in exile, to keeping Reality Winner and Daniel Hale imprisoned — top Biden officials have long been fully on board with Assange’s persecution. Indeed, they have been at the forefront of the effort to destroy basic press freedoms not just for WikiLeaks but journalists generally.

    It was Joe Biden who called Assange a “high-tech terrorist” in 2010. It was the Obama administration that convened a years-long grand jury to try to prosecute Assange. It was Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) who urged Assange’s prosecution under the Espionage Act years before Trump was in office. And it was Blinken’s colleague on the Obama national security team, Hillary Clinton, who praised the DOJ for its prosecution of Assange. All of this was intended as punishment for Assange’s revelations of rampant wrongdoing by the U.S. Government and its allies and adversary governments around the world.

    The New York Times, Feb. 21, 2021

    How can you run around the world feigning anger over other countries’ persecution of independent journalists when you are a key part of the administration that is doing more than anyone to destroy one of the most consequential independent journalists of the last several decades? Indeed, as numerous journalists warned at the time, there were few, if any, administrations in U.S. history more hostile to basic press freedoms than the Obama administration in which Blinken previously served, including prosecuting double the number of journalistic sources under espionage laws than all previous administrations combined.

    In 2013, while Blinken was serving as a high-level official in the State Department, the Committee to Protect Journalists did something very rare — issued a report warning of an epidemic of press freedom attacks by the U.S. Government — and said: “In the Obama administration’s Washington, government officials are increasingly afraid to talk to the press.” The New Yorker‘s Jane Mayer said of the Obama administration’s press freedom attacks: “It’s a huge impediment to reporting, and so chilling isn’t quite strong enough, it’s more like freezing the whole process into a standstill.” James Goodale, the New York Times’ General Counsel during the paper’s battle in the 1970s to publish the Pentagon Papers, warned that “President Obama will surely pass President Richard Nixon as the worst president ever on issues of national security and press freedom.”

    Even the specific “press freedom attack” Blinken referenced in that video interview — namely, Russia’s recent demand that media outlets linked to foreign governments such as Radio Free Europe register as “foreign agents” with the Russian government and pay fines for their failure to do so — is one which Blinken and his comrades have wielded against others for years. Indeed, Russia was responding to the U.S. Government’s previous demand that RT and other Russian news agencies register as “foreign agents” in the U.S., as well as the Biden administration’s escalated attacks just last month on news agencies it claims serves as propaganda agents for the Kremlin.

    It is hardly new for the U.S. to dole out lectures which the rest of the world recognizes as complete farces. In 2015, then-President Obama was prancing around India giving lectures on the importance of human rights, only to cut short his trip to fly to Saudi Arabia, where he met numerous top officials of the U.S. Government to pay homage to Saudi King Abdullah, their long-time close and highly repressive ally whose totalitarian regime Obama did so much to fortify.

    But galavanting around the world masquerading as the champion of press freedoms and the rights of independent journalists, all while working to extend the confinement and detention of one of the people responsible for much of the most important journalistic revelations of this generation beyond the decade he has already endured, is a whole new level of deceit. “Hypocrisy” is insufficient to capture the craven insincerity behind Blinken’s posturing.

    It is always easy — and cheap — to condemn the human rights abuses of your enemies. It is much harder — and more meaningful — to uphold those principles for your own dissidents. Blinken, like so many who preceded him in that Foggy Bottom office, theatrically excels at the former while failing miserably at the latter.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/10/2021 – 00:05

  • Ranking US Generations On Their Power And Influence Over Society
    Ranking US Generations On Their Power And Influence Over Society

    We’re on the cusp of one of the most impactful generational shifts in history.

    As it stands, the Baby Boomers (born 1946-1964) are America’s most wealthy and influential generation. But, as Visual Capitalist’s Carmen Ang details below, even the youngest Boomers are close to retirement, with millions leaving the workforce every year. As Baby Boomers pass the torch, which generation will take their place as America’s most powerful?

    In our inaugural Generational Power Index (GPI) for 2021, we’ve attempted to quantify how much power and influence each generation holds in American society, and what that means for the near future.

    Download the Generational Power Report (.pdf)

    Generation and Power, Defined

    Before diving into the results of the first GPI, it’s important to explain how we’ve chosen to define both generations and power.

    Here’s the breakdown of how we categorized each generation, along with their age ranges and birth years.

    The above age brackets for each generation aren’t universally accepted. However, since our report largely focuses on U.S. data, we went with the most widely cited definitions, used by establishments such as Pew Research Center and the U.S. Federal Reserve.

    To measure power, we considered a variety of factors that fell under three main categories:

    • Economic Power

    • Political Power

    • Cultural Power

    We’ll dive deeper into each category, and which generations dominated each one, below.

    Overall Power, By Generation

    Baby Boomers lead the pack when it comes to overall generational power, capturing 38.6%.

    While Boomers hold the largest share of power, it’s interesting to note that they only make up 21.8% of the total U.S. population.

    Gen X comes in second place, capturing 30.4% of power, while Gen Z ranks last, snagging a mere 3.7%. Gen Alpha has yet to score on the ranking, but keep in mind that the oldest members of this generation will only be eight years old this year—they haven’t even reached double digits yet.

    Generational Power: Economics

    Considering that Baby Boomers hold nearly 53% of all U.S. household wealth, it makes sense that they dominate when it comes to our measurement of Economic Power.

    At 43.4%, the GPI shows that Boomers hold more economic influence than Gen X, Millennials, and Gen Z combined. They make up a majority of business leaders in the U.S., and hold 42% of billionaire wealth in America.

    Timing plays a role in the economic prosperity of Baby Boomers. They grew up in a post-WWII era, and spent their primary working years in a relatively stable, prosperous economy.

    In contrast, Millennials entered the workforce during the Great Recession and have seen only tenuous economic and wage growth, impacting their ability to accumulate wealth. Combine this with crippling amounts of student debt, and it’s no surprise that Millennials have nearly 50% less wealth than other generations (Boomers, Gen X) at a comparable age.

    Generational Power: Political

    In addition to holding the most Economic Power in the GPI, Baby Boomers also rank number one when it comes to Political Power.

    Boomers capture 47.4% of political influence. This generation accounts for 32% of all U.S. voters, and holds the majority of federal and state positions. For instance, 68% of U.S. senators are Baby Boomers.

    Political spending on election campaigns and lobbying predominantly comes from Boomers, too. When it comes to money spent on lobbying, we found that 60% of the top 20 spenders were from organizations led by Baby Boomers.

    In contrast, Millennials and Gen Zers barely make a splash in the political realm. That said, in the coming years, it’s estimated that the combined voting power of Millennials and Gen Z will see immense growth, rising from 32% of voters in 2020 up to 55% by 2036.

    Cultural Power

    There is one category where other generations gave Boomers a run for their money, which is in Cultural Power.

    In this category, it’s actually Gen X that leads the pack, capturing 36.0% of Cultural Power. Gen X is especially dominant in press and news media—over half of America’s largest news corporations have a Gen Xer as their CEO, and a majority of the most influential news personalities are also members of Gen X.

    Despite a strong showing in our culture category, Gen X falls short in one key variable we looked at—the digital realm. On digital platforms, Millennials dominate when it comes to both users and content creators, and Gen Z has growing influence here as well.

    The Future of Generational Power

    Generational power is not stagnant, and it ebbs and flows over time.

    As this process naturally plays out, our new Generational Power Index and the coinciding annual report will aim to help quantify future shifts in power each year, while also highlighting the key stories that exemplify these new developments.

    For a full methodology of how we built the Generational Power Index, see pages 28-30 in the report PDF. This is the first year of the report, and any feedback is welcomed.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/09/2021 – 23:40

  • Record-Low Deportations Part Of Biden's Plan To "Dismantle ICE": Former ICE Chief
    Record-Low Deportations Part Of Biden’s Plan To “Dismantle ICE”: Former ICE Chief

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

    The record-low number of deportations in the United States in April signals that the Biden administration is working toward abolishing immigration enforcement, the former acting chief of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) says.

    “It’s terrible. You got record numbers, people coming into the country illegally being released, and a record low of people being removed,” Thomas Homan, who headed the agency during the Trump administration, told The Epoch Times.

    “But that’s by design, this isn’t an accident—they want to dismantle ICE. Rather than abolish them, which they had a tough time doing they’re just making them not effective. Looks like it’s working,” he added.

    The end goal, according to Homan, is completely halting immigration enforcement.

    “They want open borders because they think they’re going to be all future Democratic voters. This is about perpetual power of the government,” he said.

    ICE and the White House did not respond to requests for comment. White House press secretary Jen Psaki has not been asked during recent briefings about the low number of deportations.

    Only 2,962 deportations were carried out in April, according to the agency. That does not include expulsions made under Title 42 emergency powers amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

    An ICE spokesman said via email earlier this week that the agency “has concentrated its limited law enforcement resources on threats to national security, border security, and public safety,” which has “allowed ICE to focus on the quality of enforcement actions and how they further the security and safety of our communities rather than the simple quantity of arrests and removals.”

    Former acting ICE Director Tom Homan testifies at a House hearing in front of the Committee on Oversight and Reform, in Washington on July 12, 2019. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times)

    A recent surge in illegal border crossings, meanwhile, has shown little signs of slowing down. Over 177,000 illegal immigrants were apprehended by border agents in April, according to preliminary numbers, with another 42,620 aliens evading authorities.

    President Joe Biden upon entering office quickly reversed or dramatically altered key Trump-era measures aimed at curbing illegal immigration, including completely undoing the program that forced asylum seekers to wait outside the country for their claims to be heard. In February, ICE announced new interim guidelines for deportations that narrowed the agency’s focus to only three priority areas: national security, border security, and public safety.

    If an illegal immigrant is encountered who doesn’t fall under one of the areas, an agent must seek approval from their field office before taking any action.

    Republicans and some analysts said the low April numbers should not be a surprise given the narrowing deportation criteria.

    “With the Biden Administration willfully ignoring the rule of law, it’s no wonder we have a crisis at our southern border,” Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-Ariz.) wrote on Twitter.

    Andrew Arthur, a resident fellow in law and policy for the Center for Immigration Studies, a research institute that looks at how immigration impacts America, said the current restrictions on ICE incentivize illegal immigration.

    “As bad as the situation at the border is, interior non-enforcement is, if anything, worse. But you don’t see children crowded into makeshift detention centers under foil blankets when ICE isn’t allowed to deport criminals,” he wrote in a blog post. “The current non-enforcement rules are the reason aliens are coming, though, because they send the signal that once those aliens get into the United States, they will get to stay.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/09/2021 – 23:15

  • Visualizing What $50k In Lumber Can Build Today Versus Last Year
    Visualizing What $50k In Lumber Can Build Today Versus Last Year

    Skyrocketing lumber prices have more than tripled over the past 12 months and made the cost associated with building an average new single-family home significantly rise. The folks at Visual Capitalist dove deeper into the lumber price storm to find out how many new single-family homes $50k in lumber can build today versus the same period in 2020. 

    To calculate each home, Visual Capitalist used the following parameters:

    • Lumber requirements: 6.3 board feet (bd ft) per square foot (sq ft)

    • Median single-family house size: 2,301 sq ft

    • Total lumber required per single-family house: 14,496 bd ft

    What they found was that $50k in lumber in 2015 could build 14.74 new single-family homes. By April 2020, the same price of lumber could build around 10.5 homes. And in May, after a meteoric rise in lumber prices, $50k in lumber could only build 2.11 homes. 

    Here’s a visualization of what $50k in lumber can build in May 2021 versus May 2020. 

    On Friday, lumber prices rose at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange to over $1,700 per 1,000 bd ft, closing up 2.49% to $1,686, fresh record highs. The chart below is in a parabolic move – almost like Bitcoin or Etherum. 

    Despite Weyerhaeuser Co., Georgia-Pacific LLC, West Fraser Timber Co., Ltd., among others, attempting to increase output, lumber prices continue to soar and will likely remain elevated until new capacity comes online or the housing market frenzy loses steam. 

    All this talk about “transitory” inflation is non-sense, as Bank of America elegantly put it: “Buckle up! Inflation is here.” 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/09/2021 – 22:50

  • Critical Race Theory Training In Workplace Could Lead To Increased Bullying, Anxiety, Expert Says
    Critical Race Theory Training In Workplace Could Lead To Increased Bullying, Anxiety, Expert Says

    Authored by Janita Kan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    HR expert and author Jim Stroud says the impact of critical race theory (CRT) in workplace training could be detrimental to employees because it could lead to increased bullying and anxiety in the workplace.

    A woman holds a placard reading “white privilege” during a demonstration in Barcelona, Spain, on June 14, 2020. (Josep Lago/AFP via Getty Images)

    The the quasi-Marxist theory has been heavily promulgated throughout academia, entertainment, government, schools, and the workplace in recent years and rose to new prominence following the rise of far-left groups such as Antifa and Black Lives Matter. Some workplaces have included concepts from the doctrine in their “racial and cultural sensitivity” training, which essentially teaches employees that the United States is fundamentally racist, or that one race is inherently superior to another race.

    Stroud, who has 20 years’ experience in human resources and has written about CRT’s impact on the workplace, argues that such training could negatively impact workplace dynamics and teaches employees to mistrust each other.

    “So imagine that you’re working in a space and the day before the training, everything was fine,” Stroud told NTD’s “The Nation Speaks.” “You work with your co-workers, you had good friendships, good team building exercises, everything is fine. After the training, you’re looking at your co-workers in a different way. You’re wondering, okay, I thought you were my friend but because of this training, I now believe that you’re oppressing me, so I don’t really know if we’re really friends. I don’t really know if we’re really working together. I don’t know if the reason why you refused me taking on some project is because my idea wasn’t valid or because you’re racist.”

    Human resources expert and author Jim Stroud in a screenshot from an episode of “The Nation Speaks” that aired on May 8, 2021. (NTD)

    Employees may also question whether they were chosen to work on a certain project because they were suitable for the job or because of some corporate policy aiming to fulfill at curbing discrimination stemming from intersectionality, he added. Intersectionality is the concept where different aspects of a person’s identity can expose them to overlapping forms of discrimination and marginalization.

    “So I also think that it would bring about a lot of anxiety inside the workplace because if people disagree with critical race theory then you will be accused of being racist, which is what critical race theory does,” he said.

    If an employee continues to deny that accusation, the CRT states that that individual is “all the more racist,” he explained. Eventually, this anxiety in some people could lead to hostile workplaces.

    Stroud said that CRT is essentially a “movement to make racism acceptable,” saying it teaches the idea that “white people are born oppressors without redemption and that all minorities are oppressed.”

    “It teaches that the most important thing about anyone is their skin color, not their character, not the things they do, not the personality, not even the environment that they inhabit,” he said. “That’s purely telling you that your worth and everything you are is measured in the color of your skin.”

    The movement to push back on the expansion of CRT in schools and workplace training has fueled a heated debate on how cultural and racial sensitivity education should be conducted. Conservatives and Republicans have warned that the CRT movement is not about eliminating racism, and is simply pushing divisive concepts. Meanwhile, progressives and Democrats argue that the CRT approach would advance equity for all.

    During his administration, President Donald Trump placed a ban on critical race theory training in federal workplaces, but President Joe Biden rescinded the measure. Instead, Biden has promoted policies that embrace the ideology, issuing an executive order stating that the federal government must pursue “a comprehensive approach to advancing equity for all.”

    Stroud said he believes that the best way for corporations who are grappling with partisan politics in their organization is to attempt to steer conversations away from politics, but he warned that this could prompt backlash, citing the example of employee exodus at software firm Basecamp. The technology company saw mass resignations after its CEO announced that its employees are banned from openly sharing their “societal and political discussions” at work.

    In a blog post, Basecamp CEO Jason Fried explained that the discussions are “a major distraction,” “saps our energy,” and “redirects our dialog toward dark places.”

    “It’s not healthy, it hasn’t served us well. And we’re done with it on our company Basecamp account where the work happens. People can take the conversations with willing co-workers to Signal, Whatsapp, or even a personal Basecamp account, but it can’t happen where the work happens anymore,” he said.

    Stroud said he also hopes to see legislative measures that would make an individual’s political affiliation a protected class under state or federal discrimination laws in order to counter discrimination or bullying based on a person’s political beliefs.

    “Hopefully by the time of the election, it’ll become law. I think will be tricky because talking about politics is is something that both sides need,” he said, adding that given the Democrat-controlled Congress, it is unlikely that such a law would pass.

    Follow Janita on Twitter: @janitakan

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/09/2021 – 22:25

  • Uneven Recovery Leaves Working-Poor Communities In The Dust 
    Uneven Recovery Leaves Working-Poor Communities In The Dust 

    The US economy is fragmented more than ever. Millions of Americans continue to suffer job loss and housing and food inequities. At the same time, 650 billionaires in the US saw their net worth increase by more than $1 trillion since the pandemic began. A Bloomberg analysis provides a deep dive into the unevenness of the recovery in a dozen cities. 

    To capture the multi-speed track recovery for different races, social classes, and various metro areas, Bloomberg used unemployment data from a monthly Current Population Survey of approximately 60,000 households via the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the US Census Bureau.

    They found the recovery is patchy geographically: 

    “For Asian Americans in San Francisco and Los Angeles, low tourism and high housing costs are weighing on their rebound, while Latinos in Phoenix have benefited from a strong construction sector.”

    Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve and the White House have vowed to continue unprecedented monetary and fiscal accommodations until employment metrics improve, such as Black national unemployment, wage growth for working-poor, and labor force participation for those without college degrees.

    Janelle Jones, the top economist at the Labor Department, recently said there “no economic recovery can be complete if some communities are left behind.” But after trillions of dollars of monetary and fiscal injections, the recovery remains uneven: 

    Bloomberg found the socio-economic collapse during the virus pandemic widened the non-seasonally adjusted White-vs.-Black unemployment gap nationally by 2.9 percentage points and the White-vs.-Hispanic gap by 2.3 points. In contrast, unemployment among Asians reverted to normal levels. 

    On a more microscopic level, average jobless rates between January and March were 15.5% for Black people in Los Angeles and 3.5% for White people in Atlanta. 

    Bloomberg pointed out Hispanic workers in Phoenix had better labor conditions than their peers nationally because service-related jobs were hiring more. 

    For Blacks, Hispanic, and Whites in Houston, joblessness across the board was much worse than the national average, primarily because of the industry-wide downturn in oil and gas. On the other hand, Asians had the best labor conditions. 

    Focusing on minorities, Black and Hispanic people in Las Vegas, Philadelphia, and Los Angeles face double-digit unemployment numbers. 

    “Still, for more than half of minority groups, local unemployment rates have not fully recovered to March 2020 levels, when stay-at-home orders were first enacted, while some gaps have widened,” Bloomberg said. 

    Combining the data above with other regional data such as home prices, job listings and small business loans from the Paycheck Protection Program, Bloomberg dives even further to show what minority metro areas have been left behind in the ‘frankenstein’ recovery (otherwise known as the “K-shaped” recover) produced by government and central bank. 

    What’s clear is that government nor the central bank can demonstrate effective policies to lift all participants. One thing is sure, the billionaires got richer, and the bottom 90% of Americans got poorer. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/09/2021 – 22:00

  • Biden Gives Beijing Reason To Dump More Treasuries
    Biden Gives Beijing Reason To Dump More Treasuries

    By Ye Xie, Bloomberg reporter and Market Live commentator

    Three things we learned last week:

    1. The U.S.-China relationship remains tense.

    For anyone who expects an improvement in the U.S.-China relationship, it’s been a disappointing early start to the Biden administration. President Biden has kept almost all of Trump’s China economic policies, including tariffs, and restrictions on Chinese tech companies. He rallied U.S. allies to put pressure on China over issues from human rights to cybersecurity.

    Under these circumstances, China has most likely been divesting from the dollar and U.S. Treasuries for “logical tactical reasons,” said Stephen Jen, co-founder of London-based Eurizon SLJ Capital. “If the risks of financial sanctions by the U.S. are rising, why would SAFE (China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange) hold so much U.S. Treasuries that could potentially one day be subject to confiscation or be frozen?” he said.

    Indeed, China has sold Treasuries since 2018 when the trade war started. What’s interesting is that over the past year, its holding of long-term Treasury bonds have been steady, but its purchases of short-term bills surged to $76 billion, from $3 billion in February 2020, when the pandemic hit. The reason for the bill purchases is unknown, but it doesn’t look like a long-term commitment.

    2. The weak jobs report supports the Fed’s dovish stance.

    The shockingly weak U.S. jobs report was almost too bad to be true. It might have been because of technical factors such as seasonal adjustments or the lack of incentives for workers to return thanks to enhanced unemployment payments. But it certainly justifies the Fed’s cautious policy that it’s not the time to talk about removing stimulus. It’s likely to keep the dollar on the back foot.

    Given the Fed now puts more weight on employment than on inflation under its new framework, the report should lower the markets’ sensitivity to this week’s inflation figure.

    3. Strong data and currency give China a window to open capital markets.

    China’s exports surged and the tourism spending during the Labor Day holiday shows consumption is recovering. The stable growth provides China a window to address some long-term structural issue, including cleaning up the debt overhang and opening up its capital account. Last week, China issued rules on Wealth Management Connect, which would allow investments across the border between Hong Kong and the nation’s southern region.

    “While it is a small step in making investment abroad easier for qualified residents in Guangdong province, it is a big step toward China’s capital account liberalization experiment,” Citigroup’s economists led by Li-Gang Liu wrote.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/09/2021 – 21:40

  • Lessons From Steve Cohen And Jerry Seinfeld
    Lessons From Steve Cohen And Jerry Seinfeld

    By Nick Colas of DataTrek Research

    This week we’re considering the concept of “Mastery”. The word can mean either “a high level of skill” or “control over something/ someone”. Steve Cohen and Jerry Seinfeld both have mastery of their respective crafts, for example. As different as trading and comedy may be, their process of gaining mastery is actually quite similar: work every day, no excuses. This builds “skill”, of course, but also confidence (i.e., mastery over self, and self-doubt).

    Two stories about “mastery” to share with you:

    #1: Steve Cohen. When I (Nick) got to SAC in 1999. I heard a story about how Steve had developed his style of catalyst-driven trading. When he left Gruntal and set up his own shop, he started by only trading one stock: IBM. He got to know the floor specialists who made the market, read all the analyst reports and financial filings, and traded only when he thought he had an edge on specific events. Once he was satisfied his process worked, he started scaling the business by adding traders and training them in this approach.

    By the time I got to Steve’s shop, there was an additional process layer on top of “know your edge”: a specific daily trading profit goal. You started with, say, a $1,000 budget – make that profit every day for 30 days. It didn’t matter if you made it at the open, the close, or sometime in between. Once you made the grand, you basically took all risk off and started working on the next day’s trade ideas. Once you achieved a 30-day continuous string of profits, you set a new one – $2,000/day, say.

    What if you stumbled at some point, and had a few days of losses as you ramped up your profit goal? Well, then you went back to the $1,000/day goal. You already knew how to do that, after all. String together a few weeks of those gains and try for $2,000/day again. We all met weekly with the in-house shrink, who helped us understand the psychology behind our successes and failures, but always in the context of that daily profit goal number.

    Takeaway: Steve and IBM is a great example of mastery as “comprehensive knowledge” built through daily discipline, and the $1,000/day goal is mastery as “control over someone”, namely yourself.

    #2: Jerry Seinfeld. Ok, not an investment guy, obviously, but he clearly has mastery over his craft. How did he do that? Here’s his hack, as described to a fellow comedian many years ago:

    • “He said the way to be a better comic was to create better jokes and the way to create better jokes was to write every day.
    • He told me to get a big wall calendar that had a whole year on one page and hang it on a prominent wall. The next step was to get a big red magic marker. He said for each day that I do my task of writing, I get to put a big red X over that day.
    • After a few days you’ll have a chain. Just keep at it and the chain will grow longer every day. You’ll like seeing that chain, especially when you get a few weeks under your belt. Your only job is to not break the chain.”

    Takeaway: Just like Steve, Seinfeld sees mechanized, disciplined routine as the path to mastering a skill and mastering yourself. In his episode of “Comedians in Cars” with Dave Chappelle, the two have a long exchange about how it can take years to craft the perfect joke. One word might make all the difference, and the only way to find it is to search for it every day.

    Wrapping up with a few other thoughts on the subject of mastery:

    As Henry Ford said, “If you think you can do a thing or think you can’t do a thing, you’re right”. “Mastery of knowledge” gets so much attention in investing that it’s easy to shortchange “mastery of someone”, namely yourself. Behavioral finance covers some of this ground, but too often in a way that makes decision-making mistakes look unavoidable. The important thing is to keep trying to overcome them with a specific process, executed daily.

    Small wins mean a great deal. The $1,000/day trading profit goal had two very specific purposes. First, it forced junior traders to learn P&L discipline and risk management – especially the idea of cutting losses early. Second, and just as important, it gave them confidence. There is nothing like a 30-day string of wins – in any field – to give you the impetus to keep crossing off the days on a Seinfeld-style calendar.

    Achieving mastery – of knowledge, or self – is an ongoing process more than it is a destination unto itself. Back at SAC I knew a trader who would mark down the individual closing positions on his personal P&L software (not the fund’s books and records, of course) so that he showed a smaller daily gain (say $2 mm instead of $4 mm). Why? Because at the next day’s open his real-time P&L would always be positive by a million or two regardless of overnight volatility. He simply found it easier to make good decisions if he was “making money”. Unorthodox as that may sound, it reflects the right priorities – mastery is often as much a brain hack as it is based in empirical knowledge.

    Final note: we obviously follow the daily approach to “mastery” at DataTrek, something that actually started in our prior gig right around 2010 when we first read about Seinfeld’s routine. To us, it made more sense than Malcolm Gladwell’s 10,000-hour rule (it takes that long to achieve a high level of skill) as described in his 2008 book “Outliers”. After +30 years on Wall Street, I have come to the conclusion that mastery is first and foremost a process, and one that requires daily, sustained attention. The minute you stray from that path, you quickly start to lose it. As Seinfeld said, “Your only job is to not break the chain”.

    Sources:

    Jerry Seinfeld’s Daily Routine: https://www.balancethegrind.com.au/daily-routines/jerry-seinfeld-daily-routine/

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/09/2021 – 21:35

  • Liz Cheney Faces Chopping Block As GOP Braces For Chaotic Week
    Liz Cheney Faces Chopping Block As GOP Braces For Chaotic Week

    House Republicans will return to Washington DC this week to address a growing schism in the party between never-Trumpers led by Rep. Liz Cheney (WY), and Rep. Elise Stefanik (NY) who hopes to replace her as chair of the House Republican Conference – a move endorsed on Sunday by House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy – roomate of Democrat pollster Frank Luntz.

    “She’s done as a member of leadership. I don’t understand what she’s doing,” one former House GOP lawmaker told The Hill of Cheney’s ongoing attacks on former President Trump. “It’s like political self-immolation. You can’t cancel Trump from the Republican Party; all she’s done is cancel herself.“

    Cheney has repeatedly attacked Trump for ‘inciting’ the Jan. 6 ‘insurrection’ despite telling supporters to protest peacefully and then go home following the breach of the Capitol.

    GOP leaders hope that purging Cheney from the leadership ranks will move Republicans beyond their civil war over Trump — one that’s raged publicly since the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol — and allow the party to unite behind a midterm campaign message that President Biden and the Democrats are too liberal for the country. –The Hill

    “There are still a few members that are talking about things that happened in the past, not really focused on what we need to do to move forward and win the majority back next year,” according to Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA), the minority whip. “We’re going to have to be unified if we defeat the socialist agenda you’re seeing in Washington.”

    A victory by Stefanik would mark a symbolic shift back towards Trump by leading Republicans – as the former president remains highly engaged this election cycle and has threatened to politically obliterate any remaining GOP opposition.

    “By ousting her, what we’re saying is: We are repudiating your repudiation of the Trump policies and the Trump agenda and her attacks on the president,” according to Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ), adding “President Trump is the leader of the Republican Party. And when she’s out there attacking him, she’s attacking the leader of the Republican Party.”

    Cheney has already survived one challenge to her leadership post, in February, after she infuriated conservatives by voting to impeach Trump for inciting the Capitol rampage on Jan. 6. With the backing of Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), she easily kept her seat as conference chair, 145 to 61 by secret ballot.

    With McCarthy and Scalise fed up with Cheney and now backing Stefanik, the 36-year-old New Yorker is expected to prevail in Wednesday’s contest — a would-be victory for leaders who have failed to unite the conference behind a post-Trump strategy in the early months of the Biden administration. –The Hill

    That said, ousting Cheney is not without risk. She’s the highest-ranking GOP woman in Congress, the daughter of a former Vice President, and has a much more conservative voting record than Stefanik’s – which has caused some GOP leaders to fear alienating female Republican voters, particularly educated suburbanites who will be key votes in the 2022 elections.

    “You’re not going to win or hold some of these swing seats if it’s all about loyalty to a person,” said former Rep. Barbara Comstock (R-VA). “We certainly know that Trump divided the country, and lost the House and lost the Senate — he lost the [popular vote] two times — and you’re now going to hang your hat on the guy who got 47 percent” in 2020? she asked, snarkily.

    “This is nuts,” added Comstock. “He’s not going to get more votes. His people are dying off.”

    Cheney isn’t the only House Republican facing backlash for taking on Trump. Earlier in the week, Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), one of seven Republican senators who voted this year to convict Trump, was booed and called a traitor at the Utah GOP state convention, where he narrowly beat back an effort to censure him.

    On Friday, the Ohio Republican Party Central Committee voted to censure Rep. Anthony Gonzalez (R-Ohio), Cheney and the eight other House Republicans who backed Trump’s impeachment in January. The Ohio GOP also formally called for Gonzalez’s resignation.

    House GOP leadership allies have argued that this week’s referendum on Cheney isn’t about the final purge of Trump foes from the party. They note that McCarthy stood by Cheney after she voted to impeach Trump, in a bid to unite the warring factions of his 212-member conference.

    But McCarthy allies say the GOP leader has no choice but to dump her this time around, arguing she has repeatedly undercut McCarthy and the GOP’s message during leadership news conferences, in media interviews and in op-eds where she continues to rail against the dangers of Trump and his “Big Lie.” -The Hill

    And so, Cheney’s ouster will set the tone for whether Trump still has his mojo within the Republican party. That, in turn, will be a key indicator of whether he’s got any kind of chance in 2024 – should he choose to run again.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/09/2021 – 21:10

  • Canadian Preacher Artur Pawlowski Arrested, Charged After Allegedly Defying Public Health Orders
    Canadian Preacher Artur Pawlowski Arrested, Charged After Allegedly Defying Public Health Orders

    Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

    Officials in Calgary, Canada, said they arrested Artur Pawlowski, a street preacher who allegedly defied local lockdowns, over the weekend.

    “Earlier today, police arrested two organizers of a church service who were in violation of a new court order obtained by Alberta Health Services (AHS) in relation to mandatory compliance of public health orders for gatherings,” said the Calgary Police Service in a statement on Saturday.

    His brother, David Pawlowski, was also taken into police custody.

    Both were charged with allegedly organizing an illegal in-person gathering as well as  “requesting, inciting or inviting others” to join them, according to police.

    The force said that Alberta’s provincial government obtained a bench order from a court that applies to “protests, demonstrations and rallies” that imposes “new restrictions on organizers of protests and demonstrations requiring compliance with public health orders including masking, physical distancing and attendance limits.”

    “It is important to understand that law enforcement recognizes people’s desire to participate in faith-based gatherings as well as the right to protest. However, as we find ourselves in the midst of a global pandemic, we all must comply with public health orders in order to ensure everyone’s safety and wellbeing,” the police service added.

    A video uploaded on Twitter that appeared to show his arrest on a highway included Pawlowski’s voice: “If you are watching this video, it means that they have successfully arrested me.” It included a link to a crowdfunding website for his legal defense.

    During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Pawlowski brothers have held gatherings and have denied officials’ entry into their church located in Dover, Calgary, according to reports.

    Pawlowski drew headlines several weeks ago after he compared police with the Nazi Gestapo paramilitary forces and fascists.

    “And they did it again! Today, the Gestapo Attacked our Church Again! History is being repeated in front of our eyes! Another sad day for Freedom and democracy!” Pawlowski wrote on April 24.

    Before that, in a viral clip, he was seen in a video telling officers: “I do not cooperate with Gestapo!”

    “I’m not interested in any word that you have to say. I do not cooperate with Gestapo, I do not talk to the Nazis,” Pawlowski told officers on Easter Sunday weekend, adding, “Brown shirts of Adolf Hitler. You are Nazi, Gestapo, communist, fascists! I do not cooperate with Nazis!”

    On April 3, Pawlowski was fined $1,200 for allegedly holding a public gathering of more than 15 people at his Street Church, in violation of COVID-19 health orders.

    Pawlowski, who emigrated from Poland to Canada in the 1990s, told Fox News in April that Canadian police are engaging in Soviet-like activity during the pandemic. He has also been fined repeatedly for violating public health orders by holding church services.

    “I grew up under a communist dictatorship behind the Iron Curtain, under the boot of the Soviets, and I’m telling you that’s no fun at all. It was a disaster,” he said in the interview. “So, it was like a flashback when those police officers showed up at my church. Everything kind of came back to life from my childhood, and the only thing I could do is to fend off the wolves as a shepherd, and I used my voice to get rid of them,” Pawlowski added.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/09/2021 – 20:45

  • The Generals Will Be Back: Goldman Assures Its Clients That FAAMGs Will Make Triumphant Return
    The Generals Will Be Back: Goldman Assures Its Clients That FAAMGs Will Make Triumphant Return

    Earlier today, Morgan Stanley’s chief equity strategist Michael Wilson looked at what was likely the highlight of Q1 earnings season, pointing out that “the vaunted FAANMG stocks sold off on terrific 1Q earnings results after an outsized run into the event. This was… a reminder that stocks often peak on good news.”

    Not to make a too fine point out of it, suddenly everyone is focusing on the performance of the FAAMG stocks which, after soaring for much of 2020 when they returned 56% and accounted for 7% of the 18% S&P 500 return last year, have gone nowhere in recent months prompting concerns that it’s all downhill from here.

    Not surprisingly, FAAMGs were also the topic of the latest weekly note from Goldman’s chief equity strategist David Kostin, who writes that confronted with the prospect of decelerating US economic activity, the bank’s clients are suddenly freaking out about a breakdown in the 5 Generals, and are “asking about the potential for a transition in market leadership” even as “many investors have expressed the view that economic deceleration should support the outperformance of the largest “Big Tech” stocks in the market”, a topic which Goldman analyzed recently and which view the bank supports.

    Despite its ringing endorsement of FAAMGs, Kostin admits that one common concern with this thesis relates to the high current market concentration compared with history, to wit: he five largest stocks in the S&P 500 represent 21% of index capitalization, significantly more than the long-term average of 14%, above the 18% at the peak of the Tech bubble in 2000, and only trailing the 25% level reached during mid-2020. This large index weight of the top stocks is important because it serves as a practical headwind to continued appreciation given SEC restrictions on portfolio concentration that limit how much mutual funds can continue to buy them.

    Of course, there is a fundamental reason why investors have piled into the FAAMGs, first and foremost, the durability of the revenue streams of these firms during 2020 was in stark contrast with the extreme declines exhibited by many other businesses. Last year, sales for the median S&P 500 company collapsed at its nadir by 7% before partially recovering to post flat full-year growth. In contrast, the five FAAMG stocks collectively grew sales by 18% even at the point of maximum contraction for the economy in 2Q. They grew full-year 2020 revenues by 21% vs. 2019.

    Q1 results show that the FAAMG growth persists. The median S&P 500 stock reported year/year sales growth of 9% and 57% of S&P 500 firms beat consensus sales estimates, with a median positive surprise of 4%. At the same time, the five largest stocks reported aggregate 1Q 2021 sales of $321 billion –a remarkable $24 billion or 8% above consensus – for year/year growth of 41%. For 2022, consensus expects the five stocks will post revenue and EPS growth of 14% and 10%, respectively, compared with 6% and 10% for the median S&P 500 stock.

    But according to Goldman it’s not the topline growth that is the most distinguishing aspect of the FAAMG business models, but the amount and share of operating cash flow they devote to driving growth. During 2020, the five FAAMG stocks, spent $128 billion in R&D and another $104 billion on capex, accounting for 22% of the S&P 500 total. FAAMG posted a growth investment ratio of 64% over the last three years vs. 11% for the typical stock. As Goldman puts it, “they are investing their way to superior growth.”

    While those are the clearest positives propping up the FAAMGs, they are largely priced in; at the same time there is a list of sizable and growing risks, starting with Biden’s proposed tax reform which would raise both corporate and capital gains tax rates and represent possible sources of risk for the FAAMG stocks. If the Biden corporate tax plan were fully enacted, FAAMG 2022E earnings would decrease by roughly 9% relative to consensus expectations. FAAMGs generate approximately 55% of income abroad. Using a back-of-the-envelope approach, applying the proposed 28% domestic statutory rate and 21% tax rate on foreign income to each portion of FAAMG’s income, their collective effective tax rate would rise by 7% to 24% (vs. +6 pp to 25% for the median S&P 500 stock) and would decrease consensus 2022 FAAMG earnings by 9% (vs. -8% for the S&P 500).

    Separately, the FAAMG stocks are also vulnerable to higher capital gains rates. If the capital gains tax rate becomes set to rise in 2022, investors subject to the higher rate may choose to realize some of their substantial capital gains in 2021 at the lower current tax rate. The FAAMG stocks have appreciated by $5 trillion during the last 5 years, accounting for 29% of the S&P 500 market cap increase during that time. Needless to say, if there will be selling, it could be furious.

    It doesn’t end there: valuation multiples also pose a risk to the FAAMG stocks. Investor conversations around FAAMG inevitably turn to their valuations. FAAMG trades at a forward P/E of 29x (90th percentile for the top 5 stocks since 1980), compared with 21x for the remaining 495 S&P 500 stocks. This 34% P/E premium for the five largest stocks ranks in the 76th percentile since 1980.

    That said, if multiples were to shrink everything would crash, which is why Kostin writes that “the current low level of interest rates and the fast pace of expected growth support the lofty multiples of the FAAMG stocks.” While the nominal 10-year Treasury yield has risen this year, at 1.6% it remains extremely low in historical terms, Kostin also makes some other valuation observations:

    Low rates support the valuation of high growth, long duration stocks.FAAMG has an earnings yield gap (E/P less 10Y UST) of 191 bp, above the 40-yearaverage of 144 bp, indicating that the stocks are attractively valued adjusting for thelow level of rates. Valuation on a growth-adjusted basis also looks more reasonable:FAAMG actually trades at a 14% PEG discount to the median S&P 500 stock (1.7xvs. 1.9x).

    While all this worked in an ultra low rates environment, rising interest rates represent a potential headwind to FAAMG returns in coming months (incidentally Goldman rates strategists forecast10-year US Treasury yields will rise by 34bps to 1.90% by the end of 2021). Furthermore, all five FAAMG stocks have above-average duration compared with the Russell 1000, meaning they are especially sensitive to moves in long-term interest rates. As yields rose sharply from November through March, FAAMG underperformed the S&P 500 by 7 pp (+21% vs. +14%). A similar period of rising rates in 2H 2021 would likely hamper FAAMG returns.

    Putting all this together, Kostin writes that the greatest fundamental risk to the continued market leadership of the five largest companies “appears to be the potential intervention of regulators.” He adds that recent Biden administration appointments “suggest some risk of a stricter regulatory regime and tighter antitrust enforcement.” He has a point: with the exception of MSFT, the other four FAAMG stocks face a laundry list of legal battles and investigations over their market power and competitive practices ranging from commercial litigation to DoJ and FTC antitrust lawsuits to Congressional probes.

    Then again, as Kostin concludes, his year-end 2021 S&P 500 index forecasts of 4300 and 4600 at the end of 2022 assume these companies generate sales and earnings in line with consensus expectations, their relative valuations remain stable, and therefore implicitly that antitrust actions have no major impact.

    In short, Goldman clients can just relax and keep buying the FAAMG dip.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/09/2021 – 20:21

  • Derby Drug Bust: Thoroughbred On Roids Could See Victory Revoked
    Derby Drug Bust: Thoroughbred On Roids Could See Victory Revoked

    Winner of the famed Kentucky Derby on May 1st, the thoroughbred Medina Spirit, could have its victory removed after failing a post-race drug test, it was revealed Sunday. The growing scandal included Churchhill Downs taking the dramatic action of immediately suspending Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert over suspicions he’s been doping horses for years.

    Apparently “horse doping” is pervasive and the sport has lately tried to crack down on such injury-masking & performance-enhancing drugs: “Baffert is a Hall of Fame horse trainer, but five of his horses have fail drug tests in about the past year, while the sport’s leaders have vowed to crack down on horse doping, per AP,” Axios writes.

    Medina Spirit, via KentuckyDerby.com

    Specifically the doping allegation stems from an illegal amount of a type of steroid typically used on horses to mitigate pain and swelling called betamethasone. Apparently it was double the limit allowed for the Kentucky Derby.

    The controversy is expected to be prolonged given Baffert is challenging the allegation, saying he’ll fight the Churchhill Downs ruling “tooth and nail” – and the fact that a winning horse hasn’t faced disqualification over doping since 1968. He said in a statement, “I got the biggest gut-punch in racing, for something I didn’t do.”

    As to whether the title will be stripped altogether, the race organization had this to say:

    “Churchill Downs will not tolerate it,” the statement said. “Given the seriousness of the alleged offense, Churchill Downs will immediately suspend Bob Baffert, the trainer of Medina Spirit, from entering any horses at Churchill Downs Racetrack. To be clear, if the findings are upheld, Medina Spirit’s results in the Kentucky Derby will be invalidated and Mandaloun will be declared the winner.“

    If a further test confirms the initial drug test results, Medina Spirit will be disqualified, which has many naturally wondering how such a decision would impact betting and settling results. In recent years total gambling on the Kentucky Derby has reached well over $150 million changing hands. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Partly at issue here is that Baffert’s horses have failed about 30 drug tests in the past four decades, according to The New York Times, resulting in an avalanche of accusations from competitors for decades.  

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/09/2021 – 19:55

  • $170,000 Per Year: The Post-COVID Hiring Crunch Is Hitting The World Of AI Data Scientists
    $170,000 Per Year: The Post-COVID Hiring Crunch Is Hitting The World Of AI Data Scientists

    We already know that minimum wage payers are having trouble recalling workers for their post-Covid plans. And why wouldn’t they? Laid off workers have been making more on unemployment and PPP loans over the last year than they likely ever made working rank-and-file jobs in years past.

    But now the hiring drought is starting to hit higher end jobs, like AI talent, the Wall Street Journal notes. 

    To drum up interest, companies are now sponsoring award programs and scouting software development contests in the hunt for data scientists and other AI professionals. 

    Peter Krensky, director, analyst on Gartner Inc.’s business analytics and data science team, told the Journal: “You’ve got to be creative about finding people that care about more than just money.”

    And while base salary for these workers is generally $120,000, companies are now offering up to $170,000 or more to entice talent. Companies have turned to recruiters and internship programs to find talent, but Krensky says that’s “not enough” given today’s competition. 

    “There were 37,000 AI job postings in the first quarter of this year, up more than 45% from the fourth quarter of 2020,” the Journal reported.

    Among those seeking talent are companies like J.P. Morgan, who is looking for “hundreds” of AI researchers and scientists (totally normal for a bank). The bank says it has recruited through deep relationships with computer science programs at universities. In 2018, the bank hired Carnegie Mellon University’s head of machine learning as its head of AI research. 

    She now runs an award program that recognizes university faculty and Ph.D. students. The awards come with financial support and can also recognize “highly talented” post-graduate work. The banks says it has hired “several” award recipients. 

    Carol Juel, executive vice president and chief information officer at Synchrony Financial, told the Journal that her bank has also increased AI hiring over the last 3 years. The bank has hosted “datathons” at the University of Illinois, partnering with the school’s statistics department and providing software training and tools to help students “think like data scientists”. 

    “You have to go to where the talent is,” Juel said. 

    We’re certain that’s why businesses are also watching other AI contests, like those run by Google’s Kaggle, to see who can solve complex problems for cash prizes. It likely makes the transition to doing such work for a living – for both the candidate and the business – much easier. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/09/2021 – 19:30

  • The Mystery Of Dark Energy
    The Mystery Of Dark Energy

    Authored by Alex Kimani via OilPrice.com,

    “Dark energy is not only terribly important for astronomy, it’s the central problem for physics. It’s been the bone in our throat for a long time.”

    – Steven Weinberg, Nobel Laureate, University of Texas at Austin.

    More than three years into its quest to solve the nature of dark energy and illuminate the origin, evolution, and fate of our universe, the Hobby-Eberly Telescope Dark Energy Experiment (HETDEX) project remains on track to complete the largest map of the cosmos ever.

    HEDTEX, a project by Penn State University scientists, aims to create a three-dimensional map of 2.5 million galaxies that will yield valuable insights into the byzantine puzzle of why the expansion of the universe is speeding up over time, a property attributed to the so-called dark energy.

    But first things first, what exactly is dark energy?

    Dark energy in an expanding universe

    Source: NASA.org

    The observable universe consists of three known components: normal matter, dark matter, and dark energy. Dark energy is the most abundant at 68%, with dark energy making up another 27% of the universe while ordinary matter constitutes just 5%.

    Today, there is consensus among astronomers that the universe we inhabit is expanding despite the presence of gravity, and that its expansion is accelerating, giving rise to the notion of a repulsive force that astronomers have dubbed ‘dark energy,’ though the concept has only been around for a little more than 20 years. Generally, astronomers and astrophysicists assign the prefix ‘dark’ to concepts they have little or no clue about.

    Dark energy is the name given to the mysterious force that’s causing the rate of expansion of our universe to accelerate, rather than to slow down and go out in a Big Crunch as it ages. That’s contrary to what one might expect from a universe that was birthed by an event like the Big Bang. 

    Back in 1917 when Albert Einstein came up with the general theory of relativity that laid the foundations of the Big Bang and the universe as a whole, he and most leading scientists were convinced that the cosmos was static and non-expanding. Einstein introduced the Cosmological Constant to help explain why the universe was not collapsing under the attractive force of gravity.

    It wasn’t until 12 years later when Edwin Hubble discovered that the universe is in fact expanding, with galaxies farther away from our planet moving away faster than those that are closer. The model of a static universe was finally abandoned, forcing Einstein to quickly modify his theories and come up with two new distinct models of the expanding universe, both of them without the cosmological constant, just a year later.

    However, it would be decades later–1998 to be precise–before astronomers discovered that the universe was dominated by dark energy and not normal matter as earlier thought.

    Solving dark energy

    More than two decades after the discovery of dark energy, astronomers remain in the dark regarding what it’s all about.

    However, several theories have been advanced to attempt to explain dark energy.

    Ironically, Einstein’s previously abandoned cosmological constant is one of the frontrunners, which modern-day physicists describe as vacuum energy.

    “The vacuum in physics is not a state of nothing. It’s a place where particles and antiparticles are continuously created and destroyed. The energy produced in this perpetual cycle could exert an outward-pushing force on space itself, causing its expansion, initiated in the big bang, to accelerate,” says Penn State University Associate Professor of Astronomy and Astrophysics, Donghui Jeong.

    But here’s the rub with the concept of vacuum energy: The theoretical calculations of vacuum energy diverge from actual observations by a factor of as much as 10120.

    Clearly this is a massive discrepancy that could necessitate a reworking of the current theory. 

    Another possibility: Einstein’s theory of gravity is wrong from the get-go hence leading to erroneous conclusions.

    Nonetheless, the cosmological constant in the form of vacuum energy remains the leading candidate that explains dark energy.

    HETDEX ambition

    Obviously, mapping 2.5 million galaxies is no mean undertaking and requires quite a bit of elbow grease. This is not made any easier by the fact that whereas other comparable studies measure the universe’s expansion using distant supernovae or a phenomenon known as gravitational lensing, HETDEX is focused on sound waves from the big bang, called baryonic acoustic oscillations. 

    Luckily, HETDEX has secured more than $40 million in funding and a set of more than 150 spectrographs called VIRUS (Visible Integral-Field Replicable Unit Spectrographs), that gathers light from far-away galaxies into an array of some 35,000 optical fibers where it is split into its component wavelengths.

    Another perk: HETDEX is the first probe to try to do a whole lot of spectroscopy and then figure out what they will see by observing broad swaths of sky instead of specific, predetermined objects, meaning they will end up collecting an insane amount of data. Who knows, that treasure trove might yield unexpected insights that might help mankind in its quest to eventually colonize the universe.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/09/2021 – 19:05

  • US Declares State Of Emergency To Keep Gasoline Flowing After Colonial Fails To Restart Hacked Pipeline
    US Declares State Of Emergency To Keep Gasoline Flowing After Colonial Fails To Restart Hacked Pipeline

    Update 9:00pm ET:  The US government declared a state of emergency late on Sunday, lifting limits on the transport of fuels by road in a bid to keep gas supply lines open as fears of shortages spiked after the continued shutdown of the Colonial Pipeline.

    “This Declaration addresses the emergency conditions creating a need for immediate transportation of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and other refined petroleum products and provides necessary relief,” the Department of Transportation said. White House Press Sec Jen Psaki added that “as the Administration works to mitigate potential disruptions to supply as a result of the Colonial Pipeline incident, @USDOT is taking action today to allow flexibility for truckers in 17 states.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The move lifted limits on the transport of fuels by road to ease the fallout from the continuing closure of the Colonial pipeline, which carries almost half the fuel consumed on the US East Coast, following a ransomware cyber attack on Friday.

    The decision comes as the government scrambles to deal with the fallout from the closure of Colonial, the biggest refined products pipeline in the US, transporting 2.5m barrels of fuel a day from refineries on the Gulf Coast to markets such as Atlanta, Washington and New York (see more below).

    If the pipeline is not quickly reopened the impact on prices could become more severe in the coming days, said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at data provider GasBuddy. “We’re realizing the gravity of it is maybe worse than what we’d expected,” said De Haan. “There’s still a little breathing room, we’re starting to run low on it. But Monday, Tuesday if there’s no news, you know we’re dealing with something fairly significant.”

    * * *

    Just in case the US didn’t already have a “transitory hyperinflation” problem, gasoline futures soared more than 4% – and are likely to jump much more – late on Sunday after the Colonial Pipeline announced that while some smaller lateral lines between terminals and delivery points are now operational, its mainlines (Lines 1, 2, 3 and 4) remain offline since late Friday after the company suffered a crippling cyberattack that affected its key IT systems.

    Colonial operates Line 1 for gasoline and Line 2 for diesel and jet fuel from Pasadena, Texas, some 15 miles from the nation’s largest refineries, to Greensboro, North Carolina, at a combined 2.5 million barrels a day. They merge at Greensboro to feed a line carrying about 900,000 barrels a day into New York Harbor, and other East Coast pipelines.

    Colonial said that it is “in the process of restoring service to other laterals and will bring our full system back online only when we believe it is safe to do so, and in full compliance with the approval of all federal regulations.” Full statement below:

    Update — Sunday, May 9, 5:10 p.m.

    On May 7, Colonial Pipeline Company learned it was the victim of a cybersecurity attack and has since determined that the incident involved ransomware. Quickly after learning of the attack, Colonial proactively took certain systems offline to contain the threat. These actions temporarily halted all pipeline operations and affected some of our IT systems, which we are actively in the process of restoring.

    Leading, third-party cybersecurity experts were also immediately engaged after discovering the issue and launched an investigation into the nature and scope of this incident. We have remained in contact with law enforcement and other federal agencies, including the Department of Energy who is leading the Federal Government response.

    Maintaining the operational security of our pipeline, in addition to safely bringing our systems back online, remain our highest priorities. Over the past 48 hours, Colonial Pipeline personnel have taken additional precautionary measures to help further monitor and protect the safety and security of its pipeline.

    The Colonial Pipeline operations team is developing a system restart plan. While our mainlines (Lines 1, 2, 3 and 4) remain offline, some smaller lateral lines between terminals and delivery points are now operational. We are in the process of restoring service to other laterals and will bring our full system back online only when we believe it is safe to do so, and in full compliance with the approval of all federal regulations.

    At this time, our primary focus continues to be the safe and efficient restoration of service to our pipeline system, while minimizing disruption to our customers and all those who rely on Colonial Pipeline. We appreciate the patience and outpouring of support we have received from others throughout the industry.

    Meanwhile, downstream customers, which includes pretty much the entire Eastern seaboard, are starting to freak out as they face a new week without the primary source of gasoline supply for hundreds of millions of customers.

    In response to the news, gasoline futures jumped 4% to $2.21 a gallon, approaching the highest since 2014. WTI and Brent both spiked more than 1%, while other products such as diesel and jet fuel are also likely to jump.

    Should Colonial be unable to bring its main pipeline back online, which as a reminder were hacked by a ransomware group called DarkSide, according to Allan Liska, senior threat analyst at cybersecurity firm Recorded Future, there is no telling how high prices will shoot up as Colonial supplies nearly half the east coast gasoline.

    On Friday, the national average stood at $2.96 a gallon Friday, according to auto club AAA, and with national gasoline inventories ample, the pump price wasn’t expected to tick much higher until Memorial Day at the end of May, which is traditionally viewed as the start of the U.S. summer driving season. However, it now appears that we can add gas to the list of items that have seen prices soar. Gasoline last bested the $3 average in October 2014.

    Price increases in road fuel may stoke even more worries about inflation as commodities from oil to lumber to corn skyrocket with the world’s major economies emerging from pandemic restrictions. The oil industry was gearing up to meet what is expected to be a surge in fuel demand as newly vaccinated Americans take to the roadways and skies this summer. The downed Colonial Pipeline is a key artery for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel produced by oil refiners on the U.S. Gulf Coast and major metropolitan areas between Atlanta and New York.

    “It all comes down to the duration of the disruption. If it lasts longer, it’s likely to result in some location dislocations — shortage of oil products in the East Coast, abundance in the Gulf region. That will support New York product prices and might attract more oil products from abroad,” said Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS Group AG.

    One bank that is optimistic on the outcome of the shutdown is Goldman, its commodities strategist Damien Courvalin writing on Sunday that “the Colonial pipeline disruption likely to be brief” while “falling inventories will exacerbate the impact of future potential outages.” Some more details from the note:

    With no physical damage to the pipeline, sufficient PADD1 inventories and above seasonal gasoline imports into the region, only a long outage (likely more than 5 days) would materially tighten local supplies. The Southeast region is most at risk of shortages given tighter inventories in the PADD 1C region.

    As prior Colonial outages have shown, like in 2016, resupply is further likely to be rapid:

    1. the Colonial pipeline was running below capacity so a resumption of flows at capacity would accelerate the restocking,
    2. Kinder Morgan is working to accommodate additional barrels on its PPL line,
    3. vessels from the USGC and EU can arrive in 7 to 14 days, while
    4. the US administration could waive the Jones Act shipping restriction as well as summer gasoline requirements.

    As a result, while NY Harbor petroleum product June cracks and June-July timespreads are set to rally on Sunday’s open/Monday should the pipeline not have been restarted by then, such moves are likely to be short-lived and mean reverting, with the June RBOB contract expiring on May 28.

    Not everyone is so sure, and Bloomberg reports that traders are already seeking vessels to deliver gasoline that would have otherwise been shipped on the Colonial system. Some tankers are being secured to temporarily store gasoline in the U.S. Gulf in the event of a prolonged shutdown, they said.

    There is some good news: the terminus of the pipeline, New York, was well stocked with fuel ahead of the attack and could weather the upset if missing fuel is replaced or the line restarts quickly. East Coast gasoline stockpiles at the end of April were near five-year seasonal averages. Of course, a lenghty shutdown would mean gasoline shortage the likes of which were last seen in the 1970s…

    … which would be poetic justice since price are already soaring at a pace that has surpassed America’s hyperinflationary period, which ended with the Volcker Fed hiking rates to 20% in 1980.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/09/2021 – 18:23

  • Rickards: The Sky Is Falling
    Rickards: The Sky Is Falling

    Authored by James Rickards via The Daily Reckoning,

    What do you think is America’s most serious geopolitical challenge – China, Russia, Iran, maybe North Korea?

    None of the above, apparently. According to President Biden’s Director of National Intelligence, Avril Haines, climate change needs to be “at the center” of countries’ national security and foreign policy.

    Well, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will be doing her best to make sure the crusade against climate change gets plenty of funding.

    Yellen has called for a “whole-of-economy” approach to fighting climate change — which essentially means massive subsidies to finance so-called green energies and discourage fossil fuel production.

    In other words, climate alarmism is the official position of the Biden administration.

    Where’s the Science?

    Alarmism has no basis in observable science. It’s all the result of climate models, which have been consistently wrong about warming because they reflect the biases of their programmers.

    Garbage in, garbage out.

    They’re kind of like the climate’s version of the Fed’s economic models. They’re always wrong, and not by a little.

    If you listen to the climate alarmists, they’ll tell you we only have a few years to save the planet. If we don’t eliminate CO2 emissions quickly, the planet will warm, sea levels will rise, storms will intensify, cities will be inundated, and lives will be lost to starvation, disease and dehydration.

    Every one of those claims is empirically false, but that doesn’t stop the global power elite from trying to shut down the oil and gas industries and replace power generation with solar, wind and hydropower or so-called renewable sources.

    The War Against Plants

    Here are the facts: The best evidence is that the planet is not warming, but it may be cooling under the influence of a periodic minimum in solar flare activity and increased volcanic activity (the two may actually be related), which creates an atmospheric ash layer that cuts down on sun intensity.

    Sea levels may be rising slightly, but the tempo is about 7 inches in the next 100 years. That’s hardly cause for alarm considering that sea levels rose 400 feet since the end of the last ice age, and humans adapted just fine.

    CO2 is a trace gas that makes up just 0.04% of the atmosphere (400 parts per million) and doesn’t have a major impact as far as science can tell, except that it is essential for plant nourishment.

    Based upon recent studies, a doubling of carbon dioxide would likely result in a temperature increase of only about 1.5 degrees Celsius. That’s hardly a crisis.

    There is some danger that if CO2 levels are reduced too much, plant life may suffer. The reason hurricanes are producing more property damage is not because the storms are more intense – peak intensity in the past hundred years was in the 1940s – it’s because fools with federally subsidized flood insurance are building mansions on sand bars where they don’t belong and the mansions get blown away in predictable storms.

    The Polar Bears Are Getting Fat

    Remember when the same climate alarmists said in 1988 that the New York City subways would be flooded by 2010? Never happened. The polar bears are also doing just fine.

    Recent reports show the polar bear population is thriving, and one report showed that polar bear obesity is an emerging problem because the bears have so much to eat.

    Yet, the claims of the alarmists are even worse than junk science. Even further, the “solution” to these non-problems doesn’t work either. Simply put, solar and wind power cannot replace oil and gas in producing electricity to supply the grid.

    This is because solar and wind are unreliable. When the wind doesn’t blow and the sun doesn’t shine (which is often in most places), there is no power output at all.

    The only way to overcome the reliability problem is with immensely expensive batteries. And battery production itself uses up enormous amounts of electricity, poisonous chemicals, and metals, creating disposal problems.

    Electric Vehicles Aren’t So Green

    Solar and wind can be supplemented by oil and gas (and nuclear power), but they cannot replace them due to unreliability and the expense of batteries.

    And do you think you’re going green by driving an electric car? Well, research by the Swedish Environment Institute reveals that up to 17.5 tons of carbon dioxide go into producing an electric battery.

    If you keep the car for 10 years or longer, the battery will have to be replaced, meaning another 17.5 tons of carbon dioxide.

    And electric charging stations largely depend on fossil fuels to generate electricity.

    In comparison, a standard internal combustion engine might produce about 45 tons of carbon dioxide after 160,000 miles, about 16 years of use on average.

    But the Biden administration seems determined to push the Green New Deal anyway, despite all the costs and little benefit.

    Get ready for higher energy costs, power outages, death and damage from cold spells, and possible lines at the gasoline pump. The Green New Deal is a policy fiasco in the making that will take us back to the 1970s.

    ESG Investing

    Of course, many corporations are fully on board with the environmental agenda because it means subsidies and tax breaks if they adopt the right policies.

    Have you heard about ESG investing?

    If not, you soon will. ESG stands for Environmental, Social and Governance, which are the three factors business managers and investment advisors are implored to take into account when making business and asset allocation decisions.

    Prior to ESG, managers were only accountable for corporate profits (which could be based on a wide array of factors, including good personnel policies and good community relations), and investment managers were only accountable for consistent high risk-adjusted returns.

    Making the environment better, improving society and ensuring good governance outside the boardroom was considered to be the job of government, civil society or not-for-profit entities. Companies were all about the bottom line. Not anymore.

    Because of their wealth, scope and influence, companies have been hijacked by the power elite and ideologues to carry water for a host of social programs and causes from public housing and education to climate change.

    They’re going from shareholder capitalism — which places the shareholders as number one — to “stakeholder” capitalism — which takes the broader community into consideration.

    Maybe that’s good overall, maybe it’s not. Regardless, what one thinks of this evolution in the purpose of a corporation is irrelevant; it’s happening, and investors need to take it into account because it can be extremely profitable.

    Might as Well Profit From It All

    Assets under management in ESG funds are now over $2 trillion, more than the largest sovereign wealth funds. These funds and large asset managers such as BlackRock are scouring the corporate landscape for companies that meet their ESG investment criteria.

    Since there is a scarcity of attractive ESG companies relative to the funds chasing ESG investments, the stocks of good candidates are likely to outperform. Funds are also putting pressure on corporate management to conform existing corporate practices to ESG measurements or face shareholder revolts.

    Since the ESG target companies are overwhelmingly green (in areas of solar and wind power, recycling and efficient construction), investors may find even better opportunities in blue projects involving water recycling, irrigation, and cutting-edge vertical farming.

    Again, whether you agree with the new model or not is irrelevant. It’s happening anyway.

    These trends are just beginning, so there’s still time for investors to jump on the red-hot green and blue bandwagon and put their portfolios in the black.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/09/2021 – 18:15

  • Compressed Air Grid 'Battery' To Challenge Tesla Powerpack 
    Compressed Air Grid ‘Battery’ To Challenge Tesla Powerpack 

    Solar, wind, batteries, nuclear, tidal power, among others, provide carbon-free electricity. But their generation is usually immediately absorbed into the power grid for use or stored in lithium-ion batteries. Large-scale energy hoarding is expensive, and quite frankly, with base metal prices skyrocketing, maybe unattainable unless the Biden administration allocates billions of dollars to upgrade the grid. 

    Toronto-based Hydrostor has found a solution to storing power on the grid that doesn’t involve batteries but instead stores energy in the form of compressed air in underground chambers. 

    California is becoming the new site for two new compressed-air energy storage plants that “will soon rival the world’s largest non-hydroelectric facilities and hold up to 10 gigawatt-hours of energy,” said Popular Mechanics. 

    Compressed air is part of a growing type of energy storage to stabilize the grid. Here’s how Hydrostor’s: A-CAES technology works:

    A-CAES uses surplus electricity from the grid or renewable sources to run an air compressor. The compressed air is then stored in a big underground tank until energy is needed, at which point it’s released through a turbine to generate electricity that’s fed back into the grid.

    Rather than vent the heat generated as the air is compressed, Hydrostor’s system captures that heat and stores it in a separate thermal storage tank, then uses it to reheat the air as it’s fed in to the turbine stage, which increases the efficiency of the system. This could prove to be key; compressed air storage systems have typically offered round-trip efficiencies between 40-52 percent, and Quartz is reporting more like 60 percent for this system.

    Hydrostor’s A-CAES also makes use of a closed-loop reservoir to maintain the system at a constant pressure during operation. The storage cavern is partially filled with water and as the compressed air is piped in, the water is forced into a separate compensation reservoir. Later, when the air is needed, the water is pumped back into the air storage cavern, pushing the air out towards the turbine. – New Atlas 

    Hydrostor provides three-minute of how the technology works. 

    Hydrostor has two major projects in active development – one in southern Kern County and one in Central California, creating a more practical way to store energy on the grid than costly batteries. 

    “Hydrostor’s patented and commercially proven A-CAES technology provides 8-12+ hours of energy storage, versus the 1-4 hours that current battery technologies can feasibly provide,” Hydrostor said. 

    When it comes to longevity, a compressed air energy storage plant has a lifespan of more than 50 years, far outpacing battery farms, like Elon Musk’s Tesla Powerpacks. 

    … and to be clear – all this talk about net-zero carbon emissions talk in the next couple of decades is just a guess by policymakers. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/09/2021 – 17:50

Digest powered by RSS Digest

May 09

Today’s News 9th May 2021

  • Three Shot In Times Square Including Four-Year-Old Girl
    Three Shot In Times Square Including Four-Year-Old Girl

    New York’s Times Square was temporarily cordoned off on Saturday after at least three people were injured in a shooting, according to NBC News, citing police. The suspect, pictured below, was caught on camera.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The victims, a four-year-old girl, a 23-year-old and a 43-year-old received non-fatal wounds after one of four men involved in an altercation drew a gun around 5 p.m. and opened fire. All of the victims were bystanders, while the little girl underwent surgery and is expected to survive.

    “Two shots. They was bleeding the toddler was bleeding and the mom was crying,” said one Times Square vendor.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    It is unclear what the dispute was over which led to the shooting. No suspects have been detained. The shooting came just one hour before a scheduled rally in memory of Daunte Wright, a black man who was fatally shot by a police officer in Minnesota in early April. Police have not linked the shooting to the event at this time.

    There have been 416 shootings in New York City through May 2 of this year, up 83% from this time last year when everyone was locked down, accordsing to police data.

    “A child in one of the top tourist spots in the world on a spring Saturday isn’t safe from this nation’s gun violence epidemic,” said local TV reporter Steve Keeley of Fox29.

    The shooting comes amid a spate of attacks against asians committed primarily by black suspects. Last Sunday, two Asian women were assaulted by a black woman wielding a hammer – leading to one of the victims, a 31-year-old Taiwanese woman, being hospitalized with a head wound.

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    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/08/2021 – 23:45

  • Kauai Real Estate In Total Frenzy As Buyers Snap Up Multi-Million Dollar Homes Sight-Unseen
    Kauai Real Estate In Total Frenzy As Buyers Snap Up Multi-Million Dollar Homes Sight-Unseen

    Real estate on the no-longer sleepy island of Kauai has gotten so hot that people are buying multi-million dollar homes sight-unseen, as the pandemic-fueled housing boom continues seemingly unabated.

    Canadian entrepreneur Brent Naylor and his wife, Gayle Naylor, are selling their North Shore Kauai property for $22.75 million. David Tonnes/Panaviz Photography

    According to the Wall Street Journal, luxury properties on Kauai – with a population of 72,000 permanent residents – start at $3 million, while just 3% of the island’s 550 square miles are open to development, meaning that housing stock in all categories is scarce. And according to the report, Californians looking for primary and secondary homes are squeezing prices even higher.

    Ms. Cook, 46, a former commercial real-estate broker, and her husband, 51, a lawyer, had considered looking for a new home in the suburbs north of San Francisco, but were reluctant to test their luck in a seller’s market, where all-cash deals and multiple bidders had become the rule.

    “I looked at him,” says Ms. Cook, “And I said, ‘OK, great, when are we leaving?’ ”

    The Cooks made an offer of $1.8 million, sight unseen, on a furnished three-bedroom, three-bathroom bungalow located on Kauai’s North Shore, which is known for its verdant mountains and beautiful beaches. The 2,200-square-foot house, with a great room that opens to the outdoors, is on a ¼-acre lot that is a five-minute drive from the ocean. The couple and their two boys, now 4 and 5 years old, moved in time for Thanksgiving. -WSJ

    Kauai, once a sleepy and very rainy destination, has become the state’s prime destination for luxury-minded homeowners – with Mark Zuckerberg and wife Priscilla Chan having snapped up 1,400 contiguous acres – including approximately 600 acres just purchased in March, according to a family spokesman.

    Matthew G. Beall, CEO of Hawai’i Life real-estate, says the island’s residential sales above $3 million went from 23 in 2019 to 38 last year, and that 2020’s top sale on the island (and all of Hawaii in fact), was a 1.7 acre waterfront compound on Hanelai Bay on the North Shore of Kauai.

    The home has eight bedrooms and 10 bathrooms spread across three structures. It sold for $36.7 million last April in an all-cash deal to an undisclosed buyer. The agent on the sale, Neal Normal of Hawai’i Life’s luxury platform, says that more buyers are making pandemic-era offers without a viewing. Last year, he said that of the 30 or so residential sales he handled with an average price of around $10 million, six were sold sight unseen. In his previous 30 years as an agent, just one listing was bought without a viewing.

    Despite some 80 inches of rain per year (and 360 inches at the center of the island at Mount Awialeale – over 5,000 feet above sea level), Kauai’s North Shore has become the island nation’s most expensive market, according to the Big Island’s Rebecca Keliihoomalu – VP of Corcoran Pacific Properties.

    Last year, there were six residential sales on the island north of $10 million, compared to just two in the Wailea-Makena area of southwest Maui, and three above Honolulu.

    That said, buying properties on Kauai is not without risks.

    “Every year we have two or three floods,” said Kauai landscaper Brandon Miranda, a third-generation islander, whose home-care and landscaping business looks after high-end estates for second-home owners.

    “Everyone wants to be on the beach,” says Miranda. “But this is a tropical environment and all that moisture causes problems,” which affect everything from electrical outlets to AC units – on top of the flooding.

    This spring, Kauai and other islands were hit by torrential rains and isolated flooding. A resulting mud slide has impeded access to Hanalei. Mr. Miranda says local Hanalei owners can expect problems for months to come.

    What Mr. Miranda calls super-high-maintenance homes sit on what Hawai’i Life’s Mr. Beall calls “one of the most incredibly beautiful places on the planet.” -WSJ

    Just months ago, one Hanalei oceanfront five-bedroom house sitting on 1.11 acres went on the market for an asking price of $24.75 million.

    Another home on the market belongs to Canadian entrepreneur Brent Naylor, 75, and his wife Gayle, 74. They bought an empty 4/5 of an acre lot perched above Hanelai for $1.6 million, then proceeded to spend around $18 million to construct an 8,200 sqft four-bedroom house, which includes an outdoor kitchen and a 1,200 sqft master suite with a fireplace and private terrace.

    It’s been listed for sale for over 200 days at $22.75 million – so perhaps even Hawaii’s hottest market has limits.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/08/2021 – 23:30

  • Turn Over Routers Or Face Subpoenas, Arizona Lawmakers Tell Maricopa County
    Turn Over Routers Or Face Subpoenas, Arizona Lawmakers Tell Maricopa County

    Submitted by Zachary Stieber

    Votes are counted by staff at the Maricopa County Elections Department office in Phoenix, Ariz., on Nov. 5, 2020.

    Legislators in Arizona and officials in the state’s largest county clashed anew this week over election audit subpoenas, with county officials refusing to hand over routers and claiming they do not have passwords to access administrative control functions of election machines.

    Arizona’s Senate told Maricopa County on Friday that it would issue subpoenas for live testimony from the county’s Board of Supervisors unless it received the materials that are being withheld. “We’ve been asked to relay that the Senate views the County’s explanations on the router and passwords issues as inadequate and potentially incorrect,” a lawyer for the Senate said in an email to county officials.

    The Arizona Senate subpoenaed a slew of election materials, such as ballots, following the 2020 election. Lawmakers also issued subpoenas for election machines, passwords, and other technology.

    Maricopa County alleged in a lawsuit that the request for materials was overly broad and threatened voter privacy. A judge, though, ruled that they were “the equivalent of a Court order.” But the county said this week it is not turning over routers or router images, claiming that doing so poses a significant security risk to law enforcement.

    The county has also informed the Senate’s audit liaison, former Republican Secretary of State Ken Bennett, that it does not have passwords to access administrative functions on Dominion Voting Systems machines that were used to scan ballots during the election.

    “They’ve told us that they don’t have that second password, or that they’ve given us all the passwords they have. They’ve also told us that they now can’t, as they promised a couple weeks ago, provide our subcontractors with the virtual access to the routers and hubs and other things at the Maricopa County tabulation and election center, as was part of the subpoenas,” Bennett told One America News at the site of the audit in Phoenix.

    John Brakey, a Democrat who is serving as an assistant to Bennett, told the broadcaster that he was “blown away” by the password development.

    “It’s like leasing a car and they refuse to give you the keys. They’re supposed to be running the election. You know what’s wrong? Sometimes these vendors have too much power, and we’re voting on secret software, and that’s why this recount down here is very important,” he added.

    Jack Sellers, the Republican chairman of the Maricopa County board, said Friday that he is angered by allegations of corruption and would not address every allegation, but would speak to the password issue.

    “The specific password and security tokens Ken Bennett referenced this week provide access to proprietary firmware and source code. Elections administrators do not need to access this information to hold an election, and we do not have it in our custody,” he said in a statement.

    Contractors working for Florida-based company, Cyber Ninjas, which was hired by the Arizona Senate, audit ballots at Veterans Memorial Coliseum in Phoenix, Ariz., on May 6, 2021.

    The county board called an emergency meeting later on Friday. The board was going to consider legal advice and litigation regarding its non-compliance with the Senate subpoenas.

    In a response to the Senate’s lawyer, Allister Adel, Maricopa County’s attorney, said that the county has “already produced every password and security key for the tabulators that is [sic] within the County’s possession.”

    “It does not have any others,” Adel added. The county is working to figure out if there is “a safe manner” to get the Senate information from the routers without risking non-election data.

    Dominion, whose machines are used in about half of U.S. states, did not respond to a request for comment. The company has said it supports forensic audits by federally-accredited laboratories and that Cyber Ninjas, which is leading the Arizona audit, is not verified. Both Dominion and Sellers noted that Maricopa County contracted its own audits, one for machines and another for ballots.

    But Brakey, the assistant Senate liaison, has called the description of those audits misleading. The ballot batches were picked beforehand and auditors only analyzed a small percentage of the ballots cast in the election, he said, while the machine testing could only determine whether the technology was working well at the time of the review.

    “They claim that’s an audit. I call it fatally flawed,” he told One America News.

    Maricopa County Sheriff Paul Penzone, meanwhile, joined other county officials in decrying the Senate’s attempt to obtain the routers.

    “Its most recent demands jeopardize the entire mission of the Maricopa County Sheriff’s Office,” he said in a statement.

    “We are talking about confidential, sensitive, and highly-classified law enforcement data and equipment that will be permanently compromised. The current course is mind-numbingly reckless and irresponsible. I look forward to briefing them on the horrendous consequences of this demand and the breadth of its negative impact on the public safety in this County.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/08/2021 – 23:00

  • Justice Dept. Proposes New Rule To Serialize "Ghost Gun" Kits 
    Justice Dept. Proposes New Rule To Serialize “Ghost Gun” Kits 

    President Biden has promised to defeat the National Rifle Association and wage war on ghost guns in his first hundred days. He appears to be making good on both, as the Justice Department on Friday released a proposed rule that changes the definition of a firearm to require 80% lower kits to include serial numbers, according to AP News. 

    The proposed rule change comes as President Biden has declared war on “ghost guns.” These weapons have unserialized lower receivers (the regulated part of a gun) that can be easily bought in a kit form online or at a gun store (without a background check), and in a few hours, with some drilling and additional fabrication, can be transformed into a fully functional weapon after the upper receiver (unregulated part of the gun) is attached. 

    The federal government is terrified as the popularity of ghost guns has increased over the years. Anyone can buy 80% lower kits online and watch a few YouTube videos, and have a working lower receiver after trigger parts are installed, totally untraceable to the government. These weapons have become popular with gangs and other criminals and have been turning up in more violent crimes across the country.

    Between 2016 to 2020, the DoJ estimates about 23,000 ghost guns were seized by law enforcement agencies across the country, and some were identified to be connected with homicides or attempted homicides.

    A senior Justice Department official told AP the proposed rule sets forth several factors in determining whether the unfinished lower receiver could be easily convertible into a working firearm. The official said if the lower receiver meets that criteria, manufacturers will be required to include a serial number. The rule would also require serial numbers attached to un-serialized weapons traded in or turned into federal firearms dealers.

    “Criminals and others barred from owning a gun should not be able to exploit a loophole to evade background checks and to escape detection by law enforcement,” Attorney General Merrick Garland said in a statement. “This proposed rule would help keep guns out of the wrong hands and make it easier for law enforcement to trace guns used to commit violent crimes, while protecting the rights of law-abiding Americans.”

    There was no mention of 3D-printed ghost guns that can be entirely manufactured at home. The 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco recently reinstated a Trump administration order that authorized removing ghost guns from the State Department’s Munitions List. This allowed untraceable 3D-printed gun blueprints to be shared online. 

    Regulating 80% lower kits might be an easy task for the Biden administration. They will have a near-impossible time regulating 3D-printed guns that can be entirely printed at home. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/08/2021 – 22:30

  • Beijing's Elusive Bid For Pricing Power On Rare Earths
    Beijing’s Elusive Bid For Pricing Power On Rare Earths

    Authored by Damien Ma via MacroPolo.org,

    From ventilator and chip shortages to what kind of ships traverses through which canals, the linkages and nodes of the global economy have rarely been in the spotlight as much as they have over the last 12 months. Many of these disruptions are short-term ones, but they have also brought attention to longstanding challenges of supply chain resilience and dependence.   

    One of those challenges is that of China’s grip on rare earth elements (REEs), a key input in permanent magnets that are in everything from smart phones and wind turbines to electric vehicles and missile guidance systems.   

    Figure 1. REE Demand for Permanent Magnets by Application, 2010-2025  

    Source: Statista estimates; Quest Rare Minerals.  

    This is not the first time these 17 elements that sit at the bottom of the periodic table have raised alarm from Tokyo to Washington. Back in 2010, Beijing was roundly accused of embargoing REE exports to Japan as Sino-Japan relations soured.  

    At the time, China was responsible for some 90%-plus of REE supplies globally, even though its estimated reserves are around just 25%-33% of the global total. Given the wide belief in Japan and the United States—which also happen to be the largest importers of REEs—that China could weaponize this resource, its supply monopoly raised hackles and intensified calls for diversification. 

    A decade since, has much changed? I had trekked to Inner Mongolia’s Baotou Rare Earth Hi-Tech Zone back in 2010 to gain more insight into China’s designs on the REE industry and how that affected the global market. It’s worth revisiting this industry now to understand how its dynamics shaped Beijing’s thinking and intent on managing this resource.  

    “Selling gold for the price of radishes”  

    China has long viewed REEs as a strategic resource, with the industry’s development spurred by a quip supposedly attributed to Deng Xiaoping: “The Middle East has oil, but China has rare earths.”  

    Yet as China became the dominant supplier of REEs over subsequent decades, it saw the price of REEs plummet, hardly the price-setting influence that an OPEC exerted on oil prices. That frustrated the economic nationalists in Beijing, grumbling that China was essentially “selling gold at the price of radishes.”   

    Much of that frustration stemmed from the government’s inability to regulate a wild industry that was rife with smuggling. At one point in 2011, it was estimated that there was a gap of 120% between REE volumes that China officially exported and what other countries imported. Meanwhile, REE mining was also exacting a hefty environmental toll.  

    The Chinese government decided it needed to consolidate the REE industry. Beijing thought it could clean up the illegal business, while also receiving some of that price-setting power that has long eluded it. What’s more, the move also dovetailed with rolling out the original “strategic emerging industries” initiative, the start of China’s effort to indigenize supply chains and move up the value chain.  

    In other words, why export this resource for pennies when China should keep more of it for its own tech industries of the future?  

    This is where Baotou comes into play. Part of the industry restructuring was intended as a “resource for technology” play. That is, instead of exporting REEs, China did what it knows best: set up zones to attract high-tech manufacturing investment in exchange for easy access to critical materials. Baotou, of course, was and still is China’s largest production base of REEs.   

    Did the strategy work?  

    Although economic nationalist in orientation, China’s REE policy was a far cry from banning exports (see Figure 2). The stringent export quotas in the 2011-2012 period certainly drove a spike in prices, but that was short-lived. By 2014, it became apparent that China was ramping up exports rather than reducing them, and prices quickly corrected and have remained relatively low since. The reality reflects Beijing’s perennial struggle in imposing its will on a fragmented, messy, and profit-driven industry.  

    Figure 2. China’s REE Exports Have Not Declined Over Last Decade 

    Source: Wind. 

    It is also not entirely clear whether an actual embargo took place in 2011 or whether it was the result of Beijing’s export quotas. But whatever the judgment in hindsight, the damage has already been done to China as a reliable supplier of REEs, leading to gradual resource diversification. China is now just under 60% of global REE production (see Figure 3).  

    Figure 3. Global Share of REE Production (in tons)

    Source: US Geological Survey.

    The relative abundance of REE reserves globally, it turns out, means that China’s bid for price-setting power rested on faulty assumptions of its leverage. Despite national security hawks’ continued pitch for exercising pricing power, Beijing seems to have recognized that it no longer has a monopoly on production.  

    Instead of obsessing over what’s in the ground and how much to sell it for, China appears to have shifted tactic to redouble its effort on developing the midstream REE processing industry and downstream end products like magnets.  

    A clear indication of that focus was President Xi Jinping’s recent visit to Jiangxi—a major hub of REE production. Rather than a mining operation, Xi toured JL Mag, a downstream company that supplies magnets to the likes of Goldwind and BYD. We will look further at the midstream and downstream dynamics of the REE industry in future analysis. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/08/2021 – 22:00

  • NATO Allies "Take Over" Black Sea For Military Exercises
    NATO Allies “Take Over” Black Sea For Military Exercises

    Authored by Rick Rozoff via AntiWar.com,

    The title is courtesy of the Hungary-based Transylvania Now news site. The Pentagon’s Special Operations Command Europe kicked off the Trojan Footprint 21 exercise on May 3; what is identified as its premier special operations forces drills.

    The war games will be held until May 14 in five Black Sea and Balkans nations: Bulgaria, Georgia, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Romania. Special forces from the U.S. – all branches of the armed forces including Green Berets – the five host nations, Britain, Germany, Spain and Ukraine are involved. With the exception of Turkey, all Black Sea littoral states but Russia are participating.

    Prior Black Sea naval maneuvers, file image

    The exercise is designed for “enhancing interoperability between NATO allies” to prepare for “counter[ing] myriad threats.” Though there aren’t a thousand… only one threat. Russia.

    Just as it is all-service so it is “all-domain” with air, land and sea forces engaged in combating an unnamed adversary in the Black Sea. One which has a fleet based in Sevastopol in Crimea.

    “While the exercise is focused on improving the ability of SOF to counter a myriad of threats, it also increases integration with conventional forces and enhances interoperability with our NATO allies and European partners,” Col. Marc V. LaRoche, Deputy Commander, U.S. Special Operations Command Europe described in a statement. “Most importantly, Trojan Footprint fortifies military readiness, cultivates trust, and develops lasting relationships which promote peace and stability throughout Europe.”

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    Trojan Footprint 21 is occurring simultaneously with the massive DEFENDER-Europe 21 war games in the same area and ahead of the Steadfast Defender exercise, also to be held in the Black Sea region.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/08/2021 – 21:00

  • Chinese Military Discussed Weaponizing COVID In 2015 'To Cause Enemy's Medical System To Collapse'
    Chinese Military Discussed Weaponizing COVID In 2015 ‘To Cause Enemy’s Medical System To Collapse’

    In 2015, Chinese military scientists discussed how to weaponze SARS coronaviruses, five years before the COVID-19 pandemic emerged in Wuhan, China – where CCP scientists were collaborating with a US-funded NGO on so-called ‘gain of function’ research to make bat coronaviruses infect humans more easily.

    In a 263-page document, written by People’s Liberation Army scientists and senior Chinese public health officials and obtained by the US State Department during its investigation into the origins of COVID-19, PLA scientists note how a sudden surge of patients requiring hospitalization during a bioweapon attack “could cause the enemy’s medical system to collapse,” according to The Weekend Australian (a subsidiary of News Corp).

    It suggests that SARS coronaviruses could herald a “new era of genetic weapons,” and noted that they can be “artificially manipulated into an emerging human ­disease virus, then weaponized and unleashed in a way never seen before.”

    The chairmen of the British and Australian foreign affairs and intelligence committees, Tom ­Tugendhat and James Paterson, say the document raises major concerns about China’s lack of transparency over the origins of COVID-19.

    The Chinese-language paper, titled The Unnatural Origin of SARS and New Species of Man-Made Viruses as Genetic Bioweapons, outlines China’s progress in the research field of biowarfare.

    “Following developments in other scientific fields, there have been major advances in the delivery of biological agents,” it states.

    “For example, the new-found ability to freeze-dry micro-organisms has made it possible to store biological agents and aerosolise them during attacks.”

    Ten of the authors are scientists and weapons experts affiliated with the Air Force Medical ­University in Xi’an, ranked “very high-risk” for its level of defence research, including its work on medical and psychological sciences, according to the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s ­Defence Universities Tracker.

    The Air Force Medical University, also known as the Fourth Medical University, was placed under the command of the PLA under President Xi Jinping’s military reforms in 2017. The editor-in-chief of the paper, Xu Dezhong, reported to the top leadership of the Chinese Military Commission and Ministry of Health during the SARS epidemic of 2003, briefing them 24 times and preparing three reports, according to his online ­biography. -The Australian

    The editor-in-chief of the paper, Xu Dezhong, reported to the top leadership of the Chinese Military Commission and Ministry of Health during the SARS epidemic of 2003. (via The Australian)

    “We were able to verify its ­authenticity as a document authored by the particular PLA ­researchers and scientists,” according to Robert Potter, a digital forensics specialist who has worked for the US, Australian and Canadian governments – and has previously analyzed leaked Chinese government documents, according to the report. “We were able to locate its genesis on the Chinese internet.”

    Former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and his chief China adviser, Miles Yu, referenced the document in a February op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, writing that “A 2015 PLA study treated the 2003 SARS coronavirus outbreak as a ‘contemporary genetic weapon’ launched by foreign forces.”

    And according to Peter Jennings, executive director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, “There is no clear distinction for research capability because whether it’s used offensively or defensively is not a decision these scientists would take,” adding “If you are building skills ostensibly to protect your military from a biological attack, you’re at the same time giving your military a capacity to use these weapons ­offensively. You can’t separate the two.”

    The study also examines the optimum conditions under which to release a bioweapon. “Bioweapon attacks are best conducted during dawn, dusk, night or cloudy weather because intense sunlight can damage the pathogens,” it states. “Biological agents should be released during dry weather. Rain or snow can cause the aerosol particles to precipitate.

    “A stable wind direction is ­desirable so that the aerosol can float into the target area.”

    Among the most bizarre claims by the military scientists is their theory that SARS-CoV-1, the virus that caused the SARS epidemic of 2003, was a man-made bioweapon, deliberately unleashed on China by “terrorists”. -The Australian

    News of the document follows a May 3 report that the Wuhan Institute of Virology was working with the Chinese government in a team which comprised five military and civil experts, “who conducted research at WIV labs, military labs, and other civil labs leading to “the discovery of animal pathogens [biological agents that causes disease] in wild animals,” according to the Epoch Times.

    And as we noted in March, the US National Institutes of Health (NIH) – headed by Dr. Anthony Fauci, “had funded a number of projects that involved WIV scientists, including much of the Wuhan lab’s work with bat coronaviruses.”

    In 2017, Fauci’s agency resumed funding a controversial grant to genetically modify bat coronaviruses in Wuhan, China without the approval of a government oversight body, according to the Daily Caller. For context, in 2014, the Obama administration temporarily suspended federal funding for gain-of-function research on bat coronaviruses. Four months prior to that decision, the NIH effectively shifted this research to the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) via a grant to nonprofit group EcoHealth Alliance, headed by Peter Daszak.

    Peter Daszak, president of EcoHealth Alliance

    The NIH’s first $666,442 installment of EcoHealth’s $3.7 million grant was paid in June 2014, with similar annual payments through May 2019 under the “Understanding The Risk Of Bat Coronavirus Emergence” project.

    Notably, the WIV “had openly participated in gain-of-function research in partnership with U.S. universities and institutions” for years under the leadership of Dr. Shi ‘Batwoman’ Zhengli, according to the Washington Post‘s Josh Rogin.

    EcoHealth Alliance president Peter Daszak toasts with WIV’s ‘Batwoman’ Shi Zhengli

    So now we have a 2015 document from the Chinese military describing using COVID as a bioweapon – four years before the COVID-19 pandemic breaks out just miles away from a Chinese lab working to make bat COVID more transmissible to humans, and you’re a conspiracy theorist peddling ‘debunked lies’ if you think they might be related.

    And for those who say ‘COVID-19 couldn’t be man-made because a laboratory-created virus would have tell-tale signs of manipulation’ – au contraire. As Nicholas Wade noted three days ago in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, “newer methods, called “no-see-um” or “seamless” approaches, leave no defining marks. Nor do other methods for manipulating viruses such as serial passage, the repeated transfer of viruses from one culture of cells to another. If a virus has been manipulated, whether with a seamless method or by serial passage, there is no way of knowing that this is the case. “

    It’s as if the painfully obvious answer was right in front of us, only to be shrouded in propaganda by China-friendly politicians, big tech, and news outlets running cover for what should be the easiest game of connect-the-dots on the planet. Luckily, what was taboo as recently as a year ago will soon be exposed for the world to see, thanks to The Bulletin Of Atomic Scientists which earlier this week dared to open The Wuhan Virus “Pandora’s Box“…

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/08/2021 – 21:00

  • Dollar Stores Dominate US Retail Store Openings 
    Dollar Stores Dominate US Retail Store Openings 

    The wildly uneven US economic recovery since the virus pandemic began in early 2020 has given rise to dangerous levels of inequality, otherwise known as the “K-shaped” recovery. The “K” represents an immediate recovery for the rich but continued economic hardships for the working poor. Payrolls are still millions of jobs short of pre-COVID levels, and millions of others continue collecting stimulus checks. Corporate America understands this souring picture and has found a way to capitalize on an increasingly larger population of working poor Americans by opening a flurry of dollar stores across the country. 

    Coresight Research, a firm that focuses on retail & technology companies, reports about 45% of the 3,597 store openings of large chains in the US this year are from Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Family Dollar. 

    The pandemic resulted in millions of Americans who instantly fell into poverty and will remain there as the economy is short 8 million jobs from pre-COVID levels. Many of these folks enjoy the high-life, collecting Biden stimulus checks with minimal incentive to find a job. 

    Corporate America understands the dynamics at play as failed fiscal and monetary policies could not lift all boats. Anyone who owned stocks, bonds, real estate, classic cars, fine art, wine, and anything else of value saw incredible valuation gains over the past year as those without assets (working poor) saw very little financial improvements besides a few government stimulus checks. 

    This means that millions of folks in a pre-Covid world who shopped at middle to upper-class shops can no longer afford and have migrated to low-income dollar stores for survival. Corporate America is capitalizing on this trend by expanding these stores at a very fast clip. 

    “We’ve seen a bifurcation in the economy,” said Ken Fenyo, the president and head of advisory and research at Coresight. “So while the wealthy have done well and continue to do well since the Great Recession, there’s certainly a lot of the population that has not done as well. The dollar stores appeal strongly to that segment of the population. That’s probably the overriding reason we see for the growth in the format.”

    The recent surge of new dollar stores across the country is indicative not of a robust recovery but one that is extremely uneven, benefiting a handful at the expense of the many, with deep residual scarring that may last a generation. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/08/2021 – 20:30

  • New York Baseball Stadiums To Seat Fans in Separate Vaccinated And Unvaccinated Sections
    New York Baseball Stadiums To Seat Fans in Separate Vaccinated And Unvaccinated Sections

    By Zachary Stieber of The Epoch Times

    The Houston Astros play the New York Yankees during the third inning of a baseball game in New York on May 4, 2021

    People who have not received a COVID-19 vaccine will be seated separately from those who have in two major baseball stadiums in New York, officials announced this week. The segregation will be enforced at Fans at Citi Field and Yankee Stadium, home to Major League Baseball’s New York Mets and New York Yankees.

    “There are going to be separate sections for those who are vaccinated,” Randy Levine, president of the Yankees, told a May 5 briefing he joined with New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo.

    “As we sell tickets on an individual basis, they will go into one of those two areas, either unvaccinated or vaccinated because we will have some inventory in both types of location,” added Sandy Alderson, the president of the Mets.

    The details of how the new policy will be enforced are still being developed.

    Sections with people who are vaccinated against the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus, which causes COVID-19, can be full, with no capacity restrictions. But in sections with unvaccinated people, fans will need to be spaced apart six feet. All fans, regardless of their status, must wear a mask, even though the games are played outdoors.

    “For baseball reopening, May 19th. Two different categories. Not Yankees/Mets. Vaccinated/Unvaccinated,” Cuomo, a Democrat who has refused calls to resign over sexual assault allegations and his administration hiding the number of elderly New Yorkers who died from COVID-19, told the briefing.

    “I want to thank the Mets and the Yankees from the bottom of my heart. It’s a pain in the neck for them to operate this vaccinated and unvaccinated. The gentlemen who run the stadiums are here. It’s not easy to do this. Nobody’s done this before. Nobody’s done any of this before, let’s be honest,” he added.

    Cuomo insisted the new plan is legal.

    Fans stand during the playing of the national anthem before a baseball game between the New York Yankees and the Houston Astros in New York on May 4, 2021. (Frank Franklin II/AP Photo)

    Fans will be able to use the Excelsior Pass, an application, to show proof of vaccination when entering one of the stadiums, or proof of a negative COVID-19 test. The app was developed by IBM in partnership with the state. It was tested earlier this year at NBA and NHL games before being rolled out officially in March.

    The Yankees reported 10,850 fans at their stadium on Tuesday night. That’s the most they can have under current restrictions. In a bid to get more New Yorkers vaccinated, the teams are offering people who get a shot at a stadium a free ticket.

    “Basically you come to the game … you take a vaccine shot, you get a voucher, you can go to that game. If that game’s sold out, you can go tomorrow night and go to a game of your choice,” Levine said. Officials at Citi Field said approximately 2,000 people are getting vaccinated there each day.

    Also at the briefing, Dr. Howard Zucker, the state’s health commissioner, refused to comment on a report that said Cuomo’s senior aides delayed the release of an audit on nursing home deaths for months.

    “This is an ongoing investigation, so I won’t answer any questions at this point,” he said.

    Cuomo called the pressure on state officials regarding the shielding of death numbers political. The shielding is being probed by the Department of Justice. He also denied that his administration withheld the numbers because of fear the data would be used against them. One of Cuomo’s top aides, Melissa DeRosa, said as much in a conference call with state Democratic lawmakers earlier this year.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/08/2021 – 20:00

  • Ethereum Soars To Record High Above $3,800 As JPMorgan Lays Out 6 Reasons Why Explosive Move Will Continue
    Ethereum Soars To Record High Above $3,800 As JPMorgan Lays Out 6 Reasons Why Explosive Move Will Continue

    Back on April 25, we quoted a prominent billionaire VC who said that “Ethereum is the world’s most interesting trade right now” and we predicted that “Ethereum Is About To Make An Epic Breakout Over Bitcoin.“

    That’s exactly what happened: two weeks later, and one report from FundStrat’s Tom Lee putting out a $10,500 price target on Ethereum (and $100,000 on bitcoin)..

    … and ethereum has returned 66% to bitcoin’s paltry 16%, a 4x outperformance which even to the most jaded traders constitutes an “epic breakout.”

    More importantly, as bitcoin has languished in the $50-$60K range over the past month, ETH has nearly doubled and moments ago traded at an all time high above $3,800.

    Meanwhile, the ratio of ETH/BTC finally broke out above its recent highs..

    … and as we said two weeks ago “once the recent high is taken out, there is much more room to go… In fact, should ETHBTC hit its historical high, Ethereum would be above $5,000.” We are now just $1,200 away which at the current pace of ascent, may be reached some time next week.

    While there are many reasons for the renewed investor fascination in Ethereum, including the launch of four ethereum ETFs, the application by VanEck for the first US Ethereum ETF, the exploding demand for NFTs, interest in DeFi and generally the realization that while Bitcoin is just a token, Ethereum is an entire digital platform (not to mention the most obvious one: relentless upside momentum which in the case of bitcoin, appears to have tapered for now).

    It’s perhaps why two days after we said to brace for an “epic” ethereum breakout, JPMorgan published a note on April 27 from one of its most respected rates and fixed income (!) strategists, Joshua Young, explaining “why ETH is outperforming” in which it gave yet another reason for ethereum’s stunning outperformance compared to bitcoin: ETH valuations may be less dependent on levered  demand than BTC, a technical but occasionally important tailwind going forward.

    Of course, one can’t also discount the rabid frenzy to all things crypto in recent days as Elon Musk is set to appear on SNL on Saturday night and pitch the “joke” crypto, Dogecoin, whose returns have blown everything else out of the water.

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    So yes, there is a risk that after Saturday night, the crypto space and especially Doge, will be hit as some take profits, but as JPMorgan writes in a new note published late on Friday and authored by its versatile cross-asset quant Nick Panagirtzoglou whose job is to cover everything from retail interest in stocks to calculating the “fair value” of bitcoin and ethereum (yes, really), the move higher in ethereum has been far more striking than the one in bitcoin, and is likely to continue.

    As the JPM quant writes in a section discussing “ethereum’s ascent”, the crypto market expanded sharply in recent weeks led by ethereum and other smaller cryptocurrencies, despite bitcoin still hovering below $60k, with Panigirtzoglou admitting that “the rise in ethereum in particular has been striking”, which he attributes to a combination of factors:

    1. The European Investment Bank (EIB) used the ethereum blockchain to issue €100mn in two-year zero-coupon digital notes last week, its first ever digital bond. The transaction involved a series of bond tokens on the ethereum blockchain, where investors purchase and pay for the security tokens using traditional fiat. The EIB digital bond is surely very significant as it represents the endorsement of the ethereum blockchain by a major official institution.
    2. The first ethereum ETF (ETHH) was launched on April 20th by Purpose Investments in Canada and three more ethereum ETFs launches followed during the same month.
    3. The structural decline in ethereum supply from the pending introduction of protocol EIP1559 in the summer. EIP 1559‘s objective is to make transaction fees on the ethereum blockchain more predictable by introducing an automatically calculated base fee for all transactions depending on network activity. Once paid with ethereum, this fee would be immediately burned, implying reduced supply of ethereum in the future. Ethereum’s theoretically unlimited supply had been a concern in the past, with ethereum in circulation rising by 5% per year over the past three years. Via burning ethereum through base fees, EIP1559 could potentially reduce the annual change of ethereum in circulation to 1-2% per year.
    4. The greater focus by investors on ESG has shifted attention away from the energy intensive bitcoin blockchain to the ethereum blockchain, which in anticipation of Ethereum 2.0 is expected to become a lot more energy efficient by the end of 2022. Ethereum 2.0 involves a shift from an energy intensive Proof-of-Work validation mechanism to a much less intensive Proof-of-Stake validation mechanism. As a result, less computational power and energy consumption would be needed to maintain the ethereum network.
    5. The sharp growth of NFTs and stablecoins in recent months are increasing the usage of the ethereum which is already dominating the DeFi ecosystem.
    6. The rise in bond yields and the eventual normalization of monetary policy is putting downward pressure on bitcoin as a form of digital gold, the same way higher real yields have been putting downward pressure on traditional gold. With ethereum deriving its value from its applications, ranging from DeFi to gaming to NFTs and stablecoins, it appears less susceptible than bitcoin to higher real yields.

    Indeed, JPM concedes that both retail and institutional demand indicators accelerated in recent weeks and months, while JPM’s position proxy based on CME ethereum futures, shown in Figure 6 more than tripled during April pointing to significant, around $250mn, of institutional buying in Etherem.

    The flow trajectory for ethereum funds got boosted in April from the launch of four ETFs, pointing to a mix of institutional and retail impulse (Figure 7 and Figure 8).

    These flow metrics look even more impressive if one compares them to the equivalent for bitcoin as shown in Figure 9 and Figure 10.

    The surge in interest is translating into rapidly accelerating activity on the ethereum network, similarly implying rising demand.

    And while we were quite surprise by the JPM’s bullish take on ethereum at least as compared with its persistent bearishness on bitcoin, it is not surprising that the bank’s quant concluded his report with a warning, noting that “the past weeks have not only seen a large expansion of the market cap of ethereum but also of other coins such as Binance Coin, Dogecoin, Litecoin, Ethereum Classic, and others. This expansion has shifted the market cap of cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum and as well as stablecoins to a staggering $800bn with the share of bitcoin in the total crypto market falling steeply from around 60% to 45% over the past month.”

    Of course, the JPM strategist has to admit that a big part of this decline has been helped by increased institutional interest in ethereum (the same ethereum whose “striking” move higher he believes will continue). But to the extent it is driven by a rally in other cryptocurrencies driven more by retail demand, Panigirtzoglou writes that “it carries some echoes of the froth that was evident in December 2017 when the share of bitcoin had fallen from around 55% to below 35%.”

    Of course, those who actually traded through the crash of 2018 know that it had little to do with retail participation and everything to do with the Fed’s ongoing tightening, with the Fed hiking rates three times in 2017 and then another 4 in 2018. So while there may be similarities, there is one giant difference, namely that for now the Fed has little intention to taper QE let alone hike rates. In fact, if one goes according to comparisons to the Fed’s last rate hike cycle, ethereum, bitcoin, and other cryptos, will peak some time in late 2024, one year after the Fed will have started its latest (failed) tightening cycle. The only question is how many tens (or hundreds) of thousands of dollars one ethereum token will cost then.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/08/2021 – 19:35

  • US Troops Accused Of Pillaging Syrian Grain Silos As Russia Warns Of Increased Occupation
    US Troops Accused Of Pillaging Syrian Grain Silos As Russia Warns Of Increased Occupation

    Syrian and Russian state sources are reporting late this week that Russia’s Defense Ministry is expressing anger over what it described as noticeably increased American military activity in Syria’s northeast region, particularly an uptick in military equipment and troop deployments to the al-Jazeera area.

    The Russian Coordination Center in Hmeimim cited the increased air and land transport of American military hardware as part of the continuing violation of Syria’s sovereignty intended to block the Syrian population from its own vital resources, including wheat and energy.

    The Russian statement said “such military mobilization, synchronized with the economic and social situation resulting from the US blockade damages opportunities for a political solution to the crisis in Syria.”

    The most recent estimates of US troop numbers in the country put the Pentagon’s presence at around 1,000 troops – with many of these being special forces. In prior years it was believed to be anywhere from 2,000 to 3,000 – but these estimates have long likely shielded the true numbers of US personnel, including US intelligence and security contractors. 

    Days ago Damascus accused US troops of pillaging grain silos in an occupied area of the Hasaka countryside. 

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    “US occupation forces brought out a new batch of Syrian wheat stolen from Tal Alou silos in Hasaka countryside to the north of Iraq,” state-run SANA reported Wednesday.

    “Local sources in al-Sweidia village in al-Ya’arubia area told SANA reporter that a convoy of 35 trucks laden with wheat stolen from Tal Alou silos left under a protection of an armed group affiliated to US occupation –backed QSD militia through al-Waleed illegitimate crossing heading for north Iraq,” the report said.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/08/2021 – 19:30

  • The Dynamics Behind America's Ugly Amount Of Empty Office Space
    The Dynamics Behind America’s Ugly Amount Of Empty Office Space

    Authored by Wolf Richter via WolfStreet.com,

    This sort of sudden structural collapse in demand for office space raises some existential questions for landlords…

    Companies are not massively defaulting on their office leases, and that’s the good thing. But they have put a historic amount of vacant office space on the sublease market, while continuing to pay rent to the landlord. They decided they no longer need that much space, now that some form of flexible work, or hybrid work-from-home, or even permanent work-from-anywhere is being integrated into office real estate plans, cost cutting efforts, and footprint-reduction strategies.

    Now, 14 months into the Pandemic, office occupancy – workers actually showing up at the office – is still dreadfully low. As of the end of April, office occupancy in the 10 largest metros averaged only 26.5% of where it had been just before the Pandemic, according to Kastle Systems today, whose electronic access systems secure thousands of office buildings around the country. In other words, the number of people entering these offices was still down by 73.5% from pre-pandemic levels and has barely made headway in recent months:

    The epicenters of work-from-home show the biggest drops in office occupancy rates, according to Kastle’s “Back to Work Barometer” at the end of April: in San Francisco, the occupancy rate was at 14.8% of the pre-Pandemic level, in New York City at 16.2%, and in San Jose at 18.0%.

    Among tech companies, 95% expect remote work for at least a few days a week; 9% said that they will never return to the office at all; another 47% said that they will need less office space; only 13% said they would need more office space, according to a survey by Savills.

    A survey of Californian residents found that 82% of the employees who now work at home want to continue working at home at least some of the time. Only 18% don’t want to work at home at all.

    But even at the top end of office occupancy, working remotely is still king. In Dallas, office occupancy is at 41.2% of where it was pre-Pandemic, and in Austin at 40.2% (click on the chart to enlarge):

    How exactly this will shake out for office real estate is getting complicated, as they say, with everyone involved having different ideas as to what they want.

    A survey by Accenture of 400 North American financial-services companies found that 80% of the executives would like for workers to spend four or five days in the office post-Pandemic. Many of them think that working at home makes training younger employees more difficult and is hurting company culture.

    But employees are looking for flexibility, now that they have proven that they can be productive at home.

    “You’ve seen the senior executives sitting in their office and there’s nobody behind them,” Laurie McGraw, head of Accenture’s capital markets industry team in North America, told Bloomberg. “And then you see the entry-level folks starved for in-person interaction because they need to be coached on a more regular basis. And then there’s the vast middle that’s content to be home.”

    The work-from-home year 2020 generated record profits for banks, proving that work-from-home can be managed, and many employees question the need to commute every day. According to Rob Dicks, Accenture’s talent and organization head for capital markets, employees are likely to push back against a full-time return.

    Despite whatever executives would like, the reality of the cost-cutting aspects of working from home has already set in. According to Accenture’s survey, of the same executives:

    • Nearly two-thirds expect to cut their office footprint by 11% to 40% over the next nine months.

    • Over half are planning to relocate employees to new lower-cost locations.

    • 9% said they’ll close their headquarters in a major market.

    Financial firms have been all over the place with their plans.

    Goldman Sachs, in an internal memo seen by Bloomberg, told its US employees that they should be prepared to report to the office by June 14, according to an internal memo seen by Bloomberg.

    Vanguard Group, which employs about 17,300 people, is planning a hybrid model for most of its staff, with many employees able to work from home on Mondays and Fridays.

    Bridgewater Associates is going for the hybrid model as well and will allow their employees to work from home at least part of the time.

    Deutsche Bank, which employs about 8,000 people in the US, is planning to let its staff work from home for up to three days a week. Separately, the bank had said that it wanted to reduce its office foot print to cut costs.

    Deutsche Bank is offering “flexibility” as an inducement for hiring and retention. A survey had found that 90% of its employees wanted the opportunity to work from home at least part of the time after the Pandemic. Office space will be reconfigured to accommodate the hybrid model.

    JPMorgan Chase told its employees in a memo to report back to the office by early July on a “consistent rotational schedule” that would allow staff some flexibility.

    For landlords, these are existential questions as an enormous amount of office space is now vacant and available for lease in the US, and more office towers are in the process of being built, and nothing could have prepared the commercial real estate industry for this sort of sudden structural collapse in demand.

    *  *  *

    Enjoy reading WOLF STREET and want to support it? Using ad blockers – I totally get why – but want to support the site? You can donate. I appreciate it immensely. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/08/2021 – 19:00

  • "Will Of The Country": Huge Victory For Scottish Nationalists Sets Up Next Independence Clash With UK
    “Will Of The Country”: Huge Victory For Scottish Nationalists Sets Up Next Independence Clash With UK

    The last hugely controversial Scottish referendum on independence took place in September 2014 and showed that the Scottish population’s desire to leave its three-centuries old union with England and Wales was gaining momentum. At that time it was approaching half – with the 2014 result being 55% voting to remain with 45% in favor of independence.

    It’s now widely believed that if the UK allowed another vote today, that margin would be much narrower, and it looks like that showdown will now come sooner than thought after Saturday’s decisive election victory by First Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s Scottish National Party (SNP). Sturgeon’s first declaration was aimed squarely at London and Boris Johnson, as she called another independence referendum the “will of the country”.

    Nicola Sturgeon, via The Herald

    Her SNP won an unprecedented 64 seats in the Scottish Parliament, which falls just one seat short of a majority, marking a slight increase even over 2016, which ensures a legal and constitutional battle for the future of the United Kingdom will be sparked once again.

    Given that the pro-independence Scottish Greens also made huge gains in what’s widely considered their best performance ever, the result is a firm pro-independence majority.

    Sturgeon quickly put London on notice…

    An independence referendum was pledged in the manifesto of both the SNP and the Scottish Greens, and Ms Sturgeon declared: “It is a commitment made to the people by a majority of the MSPs have been elected to our national parliament.”

    “It is the will of the country.”

    “Given that outcome, there is simply no democratic justification whatsoever for Boris Johnson or anyone else seeking to block the right of the people of Scotland to choose our future.”

    If the request is rejected, Ms Sturgeon said, “it will demonstrate conclusively that the UK is not a partnership of equals and that – astonishingly – Westminster no longer sees the UK as a voluntary union of nations”.

    She added: “That in itself would be a very powerful argument for independence.”

    Sturgeon further explained the vote result is a clear and urgent mandate for Scotland to push ahead with preparing for a second independence referendum to be held as soon as the COVID-19 pandemic is over. 

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    Rabobank noted the significance of this weekend as follows:

    The Scottish regional election on May 6 is potentially shaping up to have a big impact on the future of Scotland and the UK, as independence has returned to the top of the agenda. The Scottish National Party looks set to win by a considerable margin, and is then likely to claim to have gained a new mandate for a referendum. The Conservative Party, officially the Conservative and Unionist Party, will in turn continue to make the case for the union. But even when prime minister Johnson denies Scotland a second independence referendum, or employs more heavy-handed tactics to suppress ‘Scoxit’ sentiments, the rift between Scotland and England looks set to widen. The Scottish regional election should be viewed entirely through this prism.

    In the meantime Sturgeon told her supporters that it’s time to “patiently persuade our fellow citizens” of the case for an independent Scotland.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/08/2021 – 18:30

  • "This Was a Massacre": Brazilian Police Kill Two Dozen In Deadliest Favela Raid In Rio's History
    “This Was a Massacre”: Brazilian Police Kill Two Dozen In Deadliest Favela Raid In Rio’s History

    Authored by Jake Johnson via CommonDreams.org,

    More than 100 heavily armed Brazilian police officers stormed a sprawling Rio de Janeiro favela (a shanty town or slum) Thursday and killed at least two dozen people, a raid that human rights activists, researchers, and journalists described as the deadliest such police atrocity in the city’s history.

    The hours-long operation, purportedly aimed at drug traffickers in the poverty-stricken Jacarezinho favela, ultimately left at least 25 people dead, including one police officer. Horrific video footage and images posted to social media in the wake of the raid—which was carried out despite a court order against such incursions during the Covid-19 pandemic—show favela residents surveying rooms, hallways, and alleys streaked with blood. “It’s extermination—there’s no other way to describe it,” Pedro Paulo Santos Silva, a researcher at Rio’s Center for Studies on Public Security and Citizenship, told The Guardian. “This was a massacre.”

    Via The Guardian

    “Really grim moment in Brazil,” Robert Muggah, co-founder of the Igarapé Institute, a Rio-based think tank, said in an interview with the Washington Post. “These shootings are obviously routine in Rio de Janeiro, but this is unprecedented, in that it’s the operation that has generated the largest number of deaths, ever.”

    Brazilian lawmaker David Miranda, who grew up in Jacarezinho, called the deadly police raid “a tragedy, a slaughter authorized by Cláudio Castro,” Rio’s governor. “Jacarezinho is my origin, it is the favela that created me,” said Miranda. “No person born outside the favela can know what that is. Brazilian institutions insist on disrespecting and marginalizing the favela.”

    Journalist Glenn Greenwald, Miranda’s husband, wrote on Twitter that he has “seen probably two dozen videos that are way too horrifying to publish: police enter homes with full force and violence, and then execute people as they lay on the ground, shooting them 10-15 times each in the head.”

    “It’s an atrocity what happened today,” Greenwald added.

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    Brazil suffers one of the highest rates of police killings in the world, and the nation is currently led by a far-right president who campaigned on the promise to “give the police carte blanche to kill.” According to Human Rights Watch, Rio law enforcement officers killed 453 people during the first three months of 2021.

    “They say there is no death sentence in Brazil. Except if you live in a favela,” said Marilia Corrêa, a Latin America historian and postdoctoral fellow at the University of Michigan’s Weiser Center for Emerging Democracies. “In this case, the police can just march in, kill dozens of people, and call it a day. This is appalling, revolting, outrageous. They have no right.”

    (Warning: the following footage is disturbing)

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    Jurema Werneck, executive director of Amnesty International Brazil, said in a statement Thursday that “the number of people killed in this police operation is reprehensible, as is the fact that, once again, this massacre took place in a favela.”

    “It’s completely unacceptable that security forces keep committing grave human rights violations such as those that occurred in Jacarezinho today against residents of the favelas, who are mostly Black and live in poverty,” said Werneck. “Even if the victims were suspected of criminal association, which has not been proven, summary executions of this kind are entirely unjustifiable.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/08/2021 – 18:00

  • Hedge Funds Are The 'Most Short' Junk Debt Since Lehman
    Hedge Funds Are The ‘Most Short’ Junk Debt Since Lehman

    A month ago we warned that The Fed’s incessant intervention had put distressed investors out of business as the remarkable rally in even the lowest quality junk debt (‘CCC or triple hooks’) had created party time for zombie companies everywhere as “high yield” is now officially “low yield.”

    And, while the party can and will go on as long as there are greater fools, one look at the fundamentals…

    … confirms that the party will only last as long as central banks keep injecting hundreds of billions into the market each and every month.

    “People aren’t investing, they’re just chasing.”

    That is the ominous, ponzi-like warning from Adam Cohen, Caspian Capital’s managing partner as the distressed debt investor has chosen to return some money to investors because the rewards don’t justify the high risks anymore.

    He’s right. Despite soaring debt levels and forward economic uncertainty, US HY debt risk spreads are 100bps tighter than pre-COVID levels…

    And all that has sparked a resurgence in hedge funds betting against this farce continuing.

    In fact, as Bloomberg reports, global high-yield bonds worth as much as $55 billion are on loan to traders seeking to profit if prices drop, according to data from IHS Markit.

    That is the largest balance since the fall of 2008, and compares with about $35 billion at the start of the year.

    “I would expect that to get bigger as spreads tighten and/or people get worried about rates rising,” said Tim Winstone, a portfolio manager at Janus Henderson, which oversees 294 billion pounds ($409 billion).

    “At these levels of valuations, I’m not surprised more people, such as hedge funds, are setting shorts.”

    And we are starting to see the impact of this drop in bullish/momo-chasing malarkey in the performance of deals in the secondary market. Almost one out of four high-yield bonds sold this year is indicated below the price it was issued at, based on data compiled by Bloomberg.

    With The ECB already hinting at scaling back its asset-purchases, and BoE having already done so, The Fed continues to ignore talk of its own tapering, but between HY shorts, and deleveraging, investors are starting to signal the build-up of defenses against a potential scaling back of central-bank support.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/08/2021 – 17:39

  • Bill Gates-Funded Company Releases Genetically Modified Mosquitoes In US
    Bill Gates-Funded Company Releases Genetically Modified Mosquitoes In US

    Submitted by Epoch Times

    Genetically modified mosquitoes have been released for the first time in the United States as part of an experiment to combat insect-borne diseases such as Dengue fever, yellow fever, and the Zika virus.

    UK-based biotechnology firm Oxitec, which is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, said it released the mosquitoes in six locations in Monroe County’s Florida Keys: two on Cudjoe Key, one on Ramrod Key, and three on Vaca Key. It’s part of an effort to help tackle a disease-transmitting invasive mosquito population—the Aedes aegypti mosquito species—that’s responsible for “virtually all mosquito-borne diseases transmitted to humans,” according to the company.

    These mosquitoes make up about 4 percent of the mosquito population in the Keys, and transmit dengue, Zika, yellow fever, and other human diseases, as well as heartworm and other potentially deadly diseases to pets and other animals.

    The experiment is in collaboration with the Florida Keys Mosquito Control District (FKMCD), and was approved by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services (FDACS), the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and an independent advisory board.

    Over the next 12 weeks, fewer than 12,000 mosquitoes are expected to emerge each week, for approximately 12 weeks. Untreated comparison sites will be monitored with mosquito traps on Key Colony Beach, Little Torch Key, and Summerland Key. If successful, some 20 million additional genetically modified mosquitoes will be released later in the year.

    “We really started looking at this about a decade ago, because we were in the middle of a dengue fever outbreak here in the Florida Keys,” FKMCD Executive Director Andrea Leal said during a video news conference. “So we’re just very excited to move forward with this partnership, working both with Oxitec and members of the community.”

    The insects released by the biotechnology firm are all male, so they don’t bite. They’re expected to mate with the local biting female mosquitoes, and in doing so, they will pass on a lethal gene that will ensure their female offspring die before reaching maturity.

    According to Quartz, areas including Malaysia, Brazil, the Cayman Islands, and Panama, where similar experiments have been carried out, have seen mosquito populations drop by as much as 90 percent.

    The project has faced backlash from residents, who say their consent was not sought for the experiment.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/08/2021 – 17:14

  • Credit Suisse Hires Former Prime Brokerage Head To Restore Business After Archegos Blowup
    Credit Suisse Hires Former Prime Brokerage Head To Restore Business After Archegos Blowup

    After firing a raft of senior employees including its head of risk, Lara Warner, Credit Suisse has been struggling to move past a series of major risk-management failures that together could cost the bank $10 billion, or more, though the final tally of losses from the Archegos blowup isn’t yet known as the bank weighs whether it should cover some client losses associated with the “low risk” trade-finance funds that collapsed earlier this year.

    Following reports that the bank took in only $17.5MM in fees from servicing the trade that led to the collapse of highly-levered Archegos Capital, the hedge fund that used highly leveraged $20 billion to more than $100 billion via a string of bets with various prime brokers to amplify its bets on ViacomCBS and a host of other tech and media stocks (many Chinese ADRs) while skirting reporting requirements, it has become apparent the bank’s leadership in that division is sorely lacking (both of the co-heads of the division were both sacked in the aftermath of the Archegos implosion).

    So, Bloomberg reports that, in order to reorganize and “clean up” the bank’s prime brokerage business, it’s bringing back a familiar face: Indrajit Bardhan, a former head of the unit who left the bank three years ago in what BBG described as a “leadership shakeup”. Bardhan will return as a consultant to offer the bank some guidance as it seeks to reconstitute the potentially lucrative (but risky) business of serving hedge funds and family offices.

    The Swiss bank hired Bardhan as a consultant, according to people with knowledge of the arrangement, who asked not to be identified because the matter is private. He was among a number of high-profile executives to exit in 2018. He relinquished his role as global head of prime services to Paul Galietto, who later rose to head of equities and then left last month after the bank posted $5.5 billion in losses tied to Archegos.

    As BBG points out, the unusual decision to enlist a veteran of the bank (and one who apparently ran afoul of the leadership under former CEO Tidjane Thiam) reflects the desperate position Switzerland’s second-largest lender has found itself in. Bardhan was among a number of high-profile executives to exit in 2018. He relinquished his role as global head of prime services to Paul Galietto, who later rose to head of equities before being canned last month.

    The unusual decision to enlist a veteran underscores the challenge the Zurich-based bank faces in rebuilding the potentially lucrative but risky business of catering to hedge funds and other sophisticated investors. It pared a number of experienced staffers years ago. And more recently the firm saw another raft of senior departures after the Archegos debacle, including the co-heads of the prime brokerage unit.

    So far, Archegos alone has wiped out one year of profit for Credit Suisse, and with the Archegos situation not yet fully resolved, investors have started to question everything, from CEO Thomas Gottstein’s ability to manage the bank, to the board’s ability to supervise him. In another unusual move, the board sacked one of its own in the face of growing shareholder pressure ahead of its annual meeting.

    We can’t help but wonder: Will CS bring back Tidjane Thiam to help offer some guidance to Gottstein?

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/08/2021 – 15:31

  • Why Californians Have Sky-High Electricity Bills
    Why Californians Have Sky-High Electricity Bills

    Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

    Californians pay for some of the most expensive electricity in the United States. They also live in one of the greenest states, at least from an energy perspective. California is only going to get greener. Meanwhile, electricity bills are expected to continue their rise. Some deny there is a link between the two.

    The facts show otherwise.

    A paper by the California Public Utilities Commission released earlier this year identified the state’s plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by adopting more renewable energy as one big factor for bigger utility bills and expectations for further increases in electricity rates in the coming years.

    The report said that while the state’s plans to reduce emissions will negatively affect electricity bills, a concerted switch to what the authors call “all electric homes and electric vehicles” could lead to a substantial drop in monthly bills. However, this would require a large upfront investment, which would be impossible to shoulder by medium- and lower-income households.

    “In the absence of subsidies and low-cost financing options, this could create equity concerns for low- to moderate-income households and exacerbate existing disparities in electricity affordability,” the report said.

    But funding such a hypothetical move to “all electric homes and electric vehicles” is only part of the problem. Another part, ironically, is distributed energy systems.

    A March report in CalMatters summarized the reasons for Californians’ high electricity bills as follows: first, the size and geography of the state make the fixed costs associated with the maintenance of its grid higher than in most other states; second, households with rooftop solar installations don’t pay for these fixed costs even if they use the grid. And all this is deepening the divide between wealthy and not-so-wealthy Californians, making electricity increasingly less affordable for the latter.

    Distributed solar installations appear to be only affordable for the wealthier citizens of the state. They can afford the upfront costs and then benefit from lower electricity bills, according to one of the authors of a UC Berkeley’s Haas Business School study that CalMatters cited in its report.

    Solar power is regularly touted as cheaper and cheaper, even exceeding the affordability of fossil fuels. The truth, however, is that the cost declines that have been celebrated by renewable power lobbies only concern the PV panels. Granted, any cost decline in solar is good news, but what most reports forget to mention is that it’s not just panels that make solar farms or even rooftop installations.

    Besides panels, solar power installations also involve other components—whose costs are not falling—and there is the cost of installation. Taken together, all these make up a rather hefty sum, which explains why it is wealthy Californians who are the ones taking advantage of the state’s programs aimed at encouraging the adoption of low-carbon energy sources. They are also the ones reaping the benefits at the expense of poorer Californians.

    California has something called a net energy metering (NEM) program that basically pays owners of solar installations for feeding electricity into the grid. An analysis of the system between 2017 and 2019, Utility Dive reported recently, shows that the costs of the program stood at $9.46 billion while the benefits stood at $7.96 billion. Another study of the program, focusing on customer bills, found that the benefits of the program came in at $7.58 billion while costs were as high as $20.58 billion and much of that was shouldered by the people who couldn’t afford to buy a rooftop solar installation.

    And yet, California is forging ahead with its electrification plans as the only presumably viable way of reducing emissions. Meanwhile, the state’s utilities are preparing for another hot summer with possible blackouts on the menu. According to the new chief operating officer of CAISO, California will see additional generation—and crucially storage—capacity come online this year, but supply will remain tight because of the retirement of gas-fired plants and one nuclear power plant.

    These retired facilities are being replaced with renewables, much of it solar. Last summer, solar was one of the culprits behind California’s blackouts as the output of solar farms declines exactly when demand for electricity increases, in the evening, and storage capacity was nowhere near sufficient to handle the discrepancy. This summer, as CAISO’s COO, Mark Rothleder, “we will ensure storage resource providers understand how we expect them to operate the system so that storage is available when needed to meet the challenging net peak demand in the stressed summer conditions.” 

    California’s government certainly has its emission-reduction work cut out for it. On the one hand, electricity bills are rising along with renewable power capacity and the retirement of fossil fuel power plants. On the other, grid reliability leaves a lot to be desired. Dealing with the bills will require a massive investment because the people most affected by electricity rate trends simply cannot afford to shoulder that bill, too. Dealing with grid reliability will require investment, too. It would be nothing short of a transformation of the state’s grid that will involve lots and lots of energy storage capacity. On the bright side, however, California’s emissions have fallen considerably since 2000.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/08/2021 – 15:04

  • And Now Rents Are Soaring Too
    And Now Rents Are Soaring Too

    With BofA predicting that the US is facing a period of “transitory hyperinflation” as a result of soaring commodity prices in everything from metals to food…

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    …. and beyond, in what increasingly more warn is a stagflationary burst right out of the 1970s playbook…

    … it makes sense that home prices are also surging thanks to trillions in stimmy checks, near-record low mortgage rates and an exodus away from cities, and as we noted two weeks ago that’s precisely what they are doing, with Redfin reporting an 18% jump in median home sale prices to an all time high…

    … as a record 58% of all houses sell within two weeks of listing, of which 45% sell for more than their listing price, also a record.

    Amid this dismal “transitorily hyperinflationary” landscape, where those whose incomes aren’t similarly hyperinflating find themselves at risk of being unable to afford a roof above their head, there was one ray of hope: renting, with rent prices tumbling in recent months and according to the BLS’ monthly CPI metric, rent inflation had just dropped to the lowest in a decade, just below 2.0% annually…

    … which due to the way the CPI basket is weighted acted as a key anchor on overall CPI rates, and served to distort the broader inflationary picture. In short, the Fed would look at the relatively tame core CPI which was only tame thanks to “tumbling” rents and would conclude that there is nothing to worry about.

    Only it now appears that not only was the government misrepresenting the actual data in hopes of extracting as much stimulus from the Biden regime by pretending inflation is low and “contained”, but that rents are in fact soaring once again.

    On Thursday, American Homes 4 Rent, which owns 54,000 houses, increased rents 11% on vacant properties in April, the company reported in a statement:

    … Continued to experience record demand with a Same-Home portfolio Average Occupied Days Percentage of 97.3% in the first quarter of 2021, while achieving 10.0% rental rate growth on new leases, which accelerated further in April to an Average Occupied Days Percentage in the high 97% range while achieving over 11% rental rate growth on new leases.

    Invitation Homes, the largest landlord in the industry, also boosted rents by similar amount, an executive said on a recent conference call. Or, as Bloomberg puts it, record occupancy rates are emboldening single-family landlords to hike rents aggressively, testing the limits of booming demand for suburban rentals.

    While soaring housing costs had put homeownership out of reach for most Americans, rents had been relatively tame for much of 2020. But in recent months, rents have also soared as vaccines fuel optimism about a rebound from the pandemic, and a reversal in the city-to-suburbs exodus.  The increases, as Bloomberg so eloquently puts it, “may add to concerns about inflation pressures.” Mmmk.

    “Companies are trying to figure out how hard they can push before they start losing people,” said Jeffrey Langbaum, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “And they seem to be of the opinion they can push as far as they want.”

    Why the change? Well, in the early months of the pandemic, the big single-family rental companies slowed rent hikes amid an exodus of renters fleeing the big cities as a result of militant BLM protests and covid, preferring to maximize occupancy during an uncertain time for the economy. But now, widespread vacancies are giving them pricing power.

    What is remarkable is that this price hike is likely to stick: Invitation Homes reported an occupancy rate of more than 98% during the first quarter, freeing the company to raise prices by more than 10% on vacant houses in April. Invitation Homes is targeting increases of as much as 8% for tenants seeking to renew leases in coming months, an executive said on a recent conference call.

    Single-family landlords have had the upper hand over apartment owners in the age of remote work, but those advantages might dissipate as employers summon workers back to the office.

    “How much of the demand is temporary?” said Langbaum. “I do believe some component of it will revert back to urban markets.”

    So as rent rebound with a vengeance, and the CPI basket’s all important Shelter and Rent inflation series (which also serves as a bseline for the Owner Equivalent Rent series) jerks higher, how much longer can the Fed pretend that the vastly overheating US economy is not in a “transitory hyperinflation“, or at least on the verge of stagflation.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/08/2021 – 14:18

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