Jun 16

Today’s News 16th June 2024

  • Chinese May Be 'Probing' American Military Readiness Through Base Breaches, Lawmaker Says
    Chinese May Be ‘Probing’ American Military Readiness Through Base Breaches, Lawmaker Says

    Authored by Darlene McCormick Sanchez via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Fears of attacks on the homeland and foreign espionage stemming from the border crisis are growing in light of illegal immigrants breaching military bases as well as those with suspected terrorist ties.

    (Illustration by The Epoch Times, Shutterstock, Getty Images)

    On June 11, news broke that eight Tajikistan nationals with possible connections to the terrorist group ISIS had been arrested in New York, Philadelphia, and Los Angeles in recent days.

    Tajikistan nationals were responsible for the March 22 attack on the Crocus City Hall concert near Moscow that left more than 140 people dead and hundreds injured.

    The individuals in the United States were being tracked by the FBI’s Joint Terrorism Task Force. They were taken into custody by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) on immigration violation charges, according to wire agency reports.

    The suspects crossed the U.S. southern border illegally in 2023 and were released after being vetted. The federal government’s screening process did not turn up any information that would have identified them as potential terrorists with ties to ISIS.

    Rep. Pat Fallon (R-Texas), who sits on the National Security, the Border and Foreign Affairs subcommittee, said that wiretap information revealed that one of the Tajikistan suspects was discussing “bombs.”

    “That’s scary. The vetting is a joke,” he said in an exclusive interview with The Epoch Times.

    The incident highlights an increase in foreign nationals from adversarial nations encountered at the U.S. southern border from 180 different countries that include state sponsors of terrorism.

    One of the fastest-growing groups of illegal immigrants arriving from hostile countries is China.

    In the first seven months of this fiscal year, beginning October 2023, border agents have apprehended 48,500 Chinese illegal immigrants, which stands to smash the 2023 fiscal year’s record of 52,700.

    At the same time, Chinese nationals and others from adversarial nations have increasingly been caught attempting to access America’s military bases.

    The breaches sparked Mr. Fallon’s subcommittee to hold a classified hearing in May titled: “Intruder Alert: Assessing the CCP’s Ongoing Infiltration of U.S. Military Installations.”

    Mr. Fallon described what he heard in the closed hearing as concerning.

    Dozens of incidents have come to light of Chinese nationals snapping photos near military installations and critical infrastructure such as reservoirs, claiming to be tourists—even when the facilities are rural and isolated, he said.

    A Border Patrol agent apprehends a large group of mostly Chinese illegal immigrants who crossed the U.S.–Mexico border, at Jacumba, Calif., on June 6, 2024. Since October 2023, border agents have already apprehended 48,500 Chinese illegal immigrants. (Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images)

    Mr. Fallon noted that Navy Adm. Daryl Caudle said in a recent interview that incidents of foreign nationals from China and Russia trying to breach Navy bases occur “two or three times a week.”

    “There are some folks in positions of authority and power that want to stick their heads in the sand and say, ‘Oh, there’s nothing here,’” he said.

    It could be that the Chinese are probing how the United States responds and how close they can get to bases, he said.

    That information would be critical, for example, should there be a conflict between China and the United States over Taiwan.

    While the majority of Chinese nationals coming into the United States may be looking for a better life, even if 1 percent were communist “sleeper agents,” that would give Beijing about 480 operatives, he said.

    Mr. Fallon said he doesn’t think the record-breaking number of Chinese nationals entering the United States illegally is an accident.

    “That is a sky-high number when you consider under the Trump administration, it was under 1,000,” he said.

    In fiscal year 2020, Border Patrol agents apprehended 554 Chinese illegal immigrants nationwide, according to government data.

    “So I unfortunately believe that there’s going to be something awful that happens from an incident like this,” Mr. Fallon said.

    More than 9 million illegal immigrant encounters have been documented nationwide by Border Patrol since the beginning of 2021.

    Additionally, officials estimate hundreds of thousands of unknown “gotaways” who aren’t seeking asylum have illegally crossed the southwest border.

    Republicans have long complained that President Joe Biden created the border crisis by rescinding policies under the Trump administration, such as  “Remain in Mexico,” where asylum-seekers waited in Mexico while their cases were pending.

    But Democrats have downplayed mass illegal migration and have blamed global political and economic instability for the border crisis.

    Rep. Pat Fallon (R-Texas) questions a witness during a hearing on the U.S. southern border, in Washington on Feb. 7, 2023. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

    House Homeland Security Subcommittee on Oversight, Investigations, and Accountability member Yvette Clarke (D-N.Y.) said during the hearing last month that America’s immigration system was “broken” and implied racism was the reason behind opposition to migration.

    Simon Hankinson is a senior research fellow at the Center for Border Security and Immigration for the Heritage Foundation who worked as Consul with the State Department during the Trump administration.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/15/2024 – 23:20

  • "Maladaptive Traits": AI Systems Are Learning To Lie And Deceive
    “Maladaptive Traits”: AI Systems Are Learning To Lie And Deceive

    A new study has found that AI systems known as large language models (LLMs) can exhibit “Machiavellianism,” or intentional and amoral manipulativeness, which can then lead to deceptive behavior.

    The study authored by German AI ethicist Thilo Hagendorff of the University of Stuttgart, and published in PNAS, notes that OpenAI’s GPT-4 demonstrated deceptive behavior in 99.2% of simple test scenarios. Hagendorff qualified various “maladaptive” traits in 10 different LLMs, most of which are within the GPT family, according to Futurism.

    In another study published in Patterns found that Meta’s LLM had no problem lying to get ahead of its human competitors.

    Billed as a human-level champion in the political strategy board game “Diplomacy,” Meta’s Cicero model was the subject of the Patterns study. As the disparate research group — comprised of a physicist, a philosopher, and two AI safety experts — found, the LLM got ahead of its human competitors by, in a word, fibbing.

    Led by Massachusetts Institute of Technology postdoctoral researcher Peter Park, that paper found that Cicero not only excels at deception, but seems to have learned how to lie the more it gets used — a state of affairs “much closer to explicit manipulation” than, say, AI’s propensity for hallucination, in which models confidently assert the wrong answers accidentally. -Futurism

    While Hagendorff suggests that LLM deception and lying is confounded by an AI’s inability to have human “intention,” the Patterns study calls out the LLM for breaking its promise never to “intentionally backstab” its allies – as it “engages in premeditated deception, breaks the deals to which it had agreed, and tells outright falsehoods.”

    As Park explained in a press release, “We found that Meta’s AI had learned to be a master of deception.”

    “While Meta succeeded in training its AI to win in the game of Diplomacy, Meta failed to train its AI to win honestly.“

    Meta replied to a statement by the NY Post, saying that “the models our researchers built are trained solely to play the game Diplomacy.”

    Well-known for expressly allowing lying, Diplomacy has jokingly been referred to as a friendship-ending game because it encourages pulling one over on opponents, and if Cicero was trained exclusively on its rulebook, then it was essentially trained to lie.

    Reading between the lines, neither study has demonstrated that AI models are lying over their own volition, but instead doing so because they’ve either been trained or jailbroken to do so.

    And as Futurism notes – this is good news for those concerned about AIs becoming sentient anytime soon – but very bad if one is worried about LLMs designed with mass manipulation in mind.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/15/2024 – 22:45

  • Storm Pilot Photographer Captures Breathtaking Images From 40,000 Feet
    Storm Pilot Photographer Captures Breathtaking Images From 40,000 Feet

    Authored by Deborah George via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    From 40,000 feet high, storm pilot photographer Santiago Borja captures a series of breathtaking images of the most intense of storms.

    (Courtesy of Santiago Borja)

    A former software systems engineer, Mr. Borja is from Ecuador and flies a Boeing 767 for a major airline in the region.

    Before becoming a storm photographer, Mr. Borja was interested in photography as a hobby and used an old film camera—which he inherited from his father—before moving to a digital SLR.

    “Storms always fascinated me, and I kept wondering how I could capture such beautiful and amazing phenomena,” he said. “I tried different settings and techniques until I finally came up with a way to consistently capture storms from a moving airplane.”

    An active storm is quickly rising over hot, humid Amazonia forests. Mr. Borja flies over this area frequently as it is the shortest route to get to the Atlantic Ocean and then to Europe. (Courtesy of Santiago Borja)

    Mr. Borja, who typically flies between 30,000 and 40,000 feet above the earth, often encounters cumulonimbus storms that vary in intensity.

    “I would say it is very rare when we don’t encounter storms,” he said. “Almost every flight there is some moderate storm activity in our surroundings.”

    A storm is developing over the Ecuadorean Amazonia when one of its powerful lightning strikes suddenly leaves the storm and traces a very particular path in the air before hitting the ground away from the storm. (Courtesy of Santiago Borja)

    As an airline pilot, Mr. Borja is unable to modify his route, so he makes use of the various opportunities to capture a good image.

    “If the airplane is too close to the storm or the cloud system, the turbulence and the clouds themselves make it impossible,” he said. “I need calm air to be able to capture these storms.”

    ‘Piercing the Sky’: A bubbling storm piercing through the cloud ceiling, discovers the sun it couldn’t reach before. (Courtesy of Santiago Borja)

    Many have wondered how Mr. Borja can fly and capture such incredible shots at the same time.

    To which he replies that since he often flies transatlantic routes, the three other pilots with him take turns controlling the aircraft, leaving him four hours of rest time to sleep and take pictures.

    The pilot is unable to carry a lot of photography gear with him at all times, so he almost always uses his full-frame DSLR with a 28-300 mm lens.

    “For storms, I don’t really need a long lens, but this is my lens for any occasion,” he said.

    His proudest accomplishment has been capturing “Pacific Storm,” a photo that was taken over the Pacific Ocean in 2004. This image was recognized by National Geographic and widely viewed by scientists worldwide.

    “I ended up learning a lot about meteorology and science by talking to all the people that got interested in this image,” Mr. Borja said. This success allowed him to publish his book—“#The Storm Pilot.”

    A strong cumulonimbus cell is flashing over the Pacific Ocean south of Panama City as they circle it onboard a Boeing 767 at 37,000 feet. (Courtesy of Santiago Borja)

    Storm photography “takes a lot of luck and a lot of trial and error,” according to Mr. Borja. Since the cockpit is bordered by high-quality glass windows that don’t produce much glare, this becomes an advantage for him. However, other variables such as light are beyond his control.

    “The more light, the more difficult [it is] to capture a storm,” he said. “Sometimes with a full moon or intense city lights, the scenery is fantastic but very challenging to capture.”

    A furious storm approaches Panama City as Mr. Borja and his pilot fly away from both of them. (Courtesy of Santiago Borja)

    The humble storm photographer has always been willing to learn more about his craft.

    “I have greatly expanded my photographic knowledge and practice thanks to the people I’ve met through this journey,“ Mr. Borja said. ”I’ve had the opportunity to talk to great photographers, who have taught me some great lessons.”

    Nighttime storms look the coolest, but it doesn’t mean we don’t find daytime activity as well. (Courtesy of Santiago Borja)

    He advises up-and-coming storm photographers to learn the skills of photography well but not to take those guidelines as rigid rules, or they risk limiting their creativity.

    “I was taught that you cannot take a long exposure from a moving airplane with a handheld camera, and yet, I managed to come up with a strategy to make it work,” he said.

    (Courtesy of Santiago Borja)

    In sharing his spectacular images with the world, he wants people to enjoy nature and all it has to offer.

    “We live more and more inside our human-made structures and environments,“ Mr. Borja said. ”I deeply enjoy flying and looking at our planet from a distance where we humans are imperceptible.

    “Too often we forget to look up and enjoy the awesome views that nature is giving us for free.”

    Early morning descent into Quito with a close view of Cotopaxi Volcano. (Courtesy of Santiago Borja)

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/15/2024 – 22:10

  • China Trumps US As Most 'Diplomatic' Nation In The World…
    China Trumps US As Most ‘Diplomatic’ Nation In The World…

    Can you guess which country has the most embassies worldwide? It’s not the United States (military bases are another story)…

    According to the Global Diplomacy Index by the Lowy Institute, Visual Capitalist‘s Marcus Lu reports that China leads with 173 embassies around the world, eclipsing the U.S. (168) by just five more foreign posts.

    Former colonial powers, France (158) and the UK (156) rank third and fourth respectively. Japan (152) rounds out the top five.

    The index notes some key findings in the regional footprint of all these foreign posts as well.

    For example, China has a larger diplomatic presence in Africa, East Asia, and the Pacific, while the U.S. leads in the Americas, Europe, and South Asia. This reflects the two superpowers’ trade and economic ties as well.

    Meanwhile, Türkiye and India have grown their diplomatic networks the most in recent years. Interestingly, both countries prioritized Africa in their new outreach. In fact, India is a key export destination for many African countries.

    Russia meanwhile had to close 14 foreign missions since it invaded Ukraine in 2022, slipping two ranking spots between 2017 and 2022.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/15/2024 – 21:35

  • The Crises And Sacrifices Yet To Come
    The Crises And Sacrifices Yet To Come

    Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via Substack,

    The sense that we’re approaching a tipping point into a crisis with no easy resolution is pervasive, a sense that beneath the veneer of normalcy (the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates and that will fix everything), we sense the precariousness of this brittle normalcy.

    While many are uneasily scanning the horizon for geopolitical crises, others see the crisis emerging here at home, possibly a political crisis or a financial crisis that ensnares us all.

    Few look at the decay of our social order as the source of crisis. Few seem to notice that corruption has become so normalized that we don’t even recognize the ubiquity and depth of our corruption; we tell ourselves that this isn’t corruption, it’s just healthy self-interest, the “invisible hand” of the market magically organizing our economy to optimize efficiency and productivity. This provides cover for our worship of self-interest, a polite phrase for limitless greed.

    While the media glorifies illusions of salvation and grandeur (AI!), few look at what’s been lost in the decay of our social order, a list that starts with sacrifice for the common good and civic virtue.

    The American Dream has a peculiarly truncated vision of sacrifice: we make individual sacrifices to advance our personal goals, but sacrifices for the common good are not part of the Dream: sacrifices for the sake of our fellow citizens are at best unnecessary and at worst a waste of money, something only chumps fall for.

    The Smart Money spends a fortune evading taxes, as part of the prevailing ethos: Get rich by whatever means are necessary and let the Devil take the hindmost.

    What few seem to have noticed is specific classes of the citizenry have already been sacrificed to clear the path for limitless greed and corruption to reap the spoils. These classes include the majority of the citizenry, the bottom 90%, though the burdens of the systemic cannibalization / predation have fallen most heavily on the bottom 50%, whose share of the nation’s financial wealth is effectively signal noise: 2.6%.

    The generational divide is equally stark: Boomers hold 51% of household wealth, while Millennials hold a mere 9%.

    The divide between wage earners and owners of capital is staggering, yet of little interest to the financial media: Labor’s share of gross domestic income (GDI) has declined for decades, resulting in the transfer of $149 trillion from wage earners to owners of capital:

    The sacrifices yet to come will fall on everyone, but they will fall most heavily on capital as capital has scooped up the vast majority of the financial gains for the past 45 years. The owners of capital are already whining, as if the addition of $50 trillion to their wealth in the past four years is their birthright, the legitimate rewards of their brilliant creation of stupendous gains in productivity rather than the illegitimate gains of a centrally planned bubble that enriched the few at the expense of the many

    We are reluctant to face the consequences of our corruption and our vastly unequal economy. The dynamics of our ability to rationalize away the coming crisis are crystalized in this graphic composed by Dave Pollard in his post Why We Cannot Prevent Collapse:

    In summary, we are fixated on the short-term, enamored by our own power, intoxicated by normalization and conditioned to being “saved”, confident that our salvation will be delivered via a painless central bank “save” should anything threaten to overturn our apple cart.

    Financial podcaster Emerson Fersch asks a cogent question: what catalyst will finally tip the system into disorderly incoherence? My answer is the core of our recent podcast, Crisis, Sacrifice and the New Economy.

    I don’t have a crisp answer that fits in a Tweet or a Tik-Tok video because any prediction is nothing more than a guess due to the nature of the global economic system: an open, (i.e. emergent) tightly bound system that has veered far from equilibrium and is prone to sudden drops into chaotic disorder in which there are no guarantees that the previous stability / equilibrium can be restored.

    We know a few things that offer some minimal guidance. We know that in complex, highly interconnected /tightly bound systems, small perturbances can generate large effects.

    We also know that should events occur faster than the system’s stabilizing feedbacks can respond, the system is highly prone to collapse.

    We also know that humans don’t change anything that requires exposure to open-ended risk and sacrifice until there is no other choice.

    Lastly, we know that the timing of finally embracing risk and sacrifice as the only option left is exquisitely sensitive: finally caving in a moment too late leads to the system collapsing beyond recovery. When this moment arrives, who will be ready and who will resist, rationalize and prevaricate until it’s too late?

    When we’re finally ready to bargain–OK, we’ll sacrifice a bit–it’s too late to stop the whirlwind.

    Podcasts: Crisis, Sacrifice and the New Economy, with Emerson Fersch (1 hour)

    Financial Nihilism, Inflation & The Collapsing American Dream.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/15/2024 – 21:00

  • "Freaking Brilliant New Trend": Write "Vote Trump, End Taxes On Tips!" On Server Checks
    “Freaking Brilliant New Trend”: Write “Vote Trump, End Taxes On Tips!” On Server Checks

    About a week ago, former President Trump floated the idea of canceling taxes on tips at a campaign rally in Las Vegas. By Thursday of last week, Republican lawmakers were delighted by the idea and how it could generate new Trump voters ahead of the November elections.

    “This tips thing was genius,” Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) said, who was quoted by The Hill, adding, “[Trump] was like, I’d love to tell you it was based on a bunch of research, but it was based on a discussion with a waitress who said, ‘They’re coming after my tips.'”

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    Cramer said these service workers are “just feeling this assault on their tips” by the Biden administration. This is also happening as Bidenomics inflation crushes the working poor into oblivion. 

    On Friday, Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY.) wrote on X, “This week Trump suggested we shouldn’t tax tips. He’s right. Next week I’ll be re-introducing @RonPaul’s original Tax Free Tips Act to eliminate taxes on tips!” 

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    Trump’s new push to onboard some of the nearly 16 million people working in the leisure and hospitality comes as President Biden’s polling data continues to slide – and the president with possible dementia continues to stun the nation—literally every week. 

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    What’s happening on the ground and across the country at restaurants and bars are Trump voters informing service industry workers about how voting for the former president will allow for ‘No Tax On Tips.’  

    This is a brilliant strategy that is spreading like wildfire on X: 

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    All of this shows how Democrats are out of touch with the nation’s vibe. Radical leftists in the White House are too focused on funding endless wars, such as the one in Ukraine, the woke indoctrination of children, catering to illegal aliens rather than voters, not enforcing common sense law and order in cities, and pushing for more taxes and bigger government.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/15/2024 – 20:25

  • Prior COVID-19 Infection May Protect Against Common Colds: Study
    Prior COVID-19 Infection May Protect Against Common Colds: Study

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    This scanning electron microscope image shows the novel coronavirus (orange), which causes COVID-19 disease, isolated from a patient in the U.S., emerging from the surface of cells (green) cultured in the lab. Photo published on Feb. 13, 2020. (NIAID-RML)

    People with a history of COVID-19 infection are better protected against common colds than people who received a COVID-19 vaccine, according to a new study.

    Infection and vaccination triggered similar antibody responses in study participants, but T cell responses targeting endemic coronaviruses, which cause some common colds, were found only in people with past infection with COVID-19, which is caused by the virus SARS-CoV-2. The study was published in the journal Science Translational Medicine on June 12.

    “Prior SARS-CoV-2 infection as compared to COVID-19 vaccination associates with lower incidence of disease from highly related but not identical coronaviruses, namely the ‘common cold’ coronaviruses,” Dr. Manish Sagar, a physician at Boston Medical Center and one of the researchers, told The Epoch Times via email.

    The lack of protection conferred by vaccines may stem from them not including certain parts of the coronavirus genome, he added.

    Researchers analyzed data from 501 people with past infection, about half of whom had received a vaccine; 1,463 people who received a full COVID-19 vaccine course and had no past infection; and 2,869 with no history of infection or vaccination.

    Just two of the 275 people, or 0.7 percent, with past infection and no vaccination contracted symptomatic endemic coronaviruses, compared to 3 percent of people deemed fully vaccinated, the researchers found.

    About 1.4 percent of the people with past infection who were vaccinated experienced common colds with symptoms, as well as 1.8 percent of the people with no exposure to SARS-CoV-2.

    The initial results indicated that COVID-19 vaccination may increase the risk of contracting common colds, but adjustments made for the differences between the three groups showed that while vaccination did not protect against common colds, it did not increase that risk, the researchers said.

    Data from the people was examined retrospectively. It came from people who presented to Boston Medical Center from Nov. 30, 2020, through Oct. 8, 2021, for clinical care.

    Limitations of the paper included the possibility of misclassification of some people due to them possibly having contracted COVID-19 without symptoms while being counted in one of the groups without prior infection.

    The work was funded by U.S. National Institutes of Health grants and funds from the Massachusetts Consortium on Pathogen Readiness. The only conflict of interest disclosed was one author having a financial interest in Quanterix, a company developing an antibody test.

    May Help Improve Vaccines

    The data from the paper may help researchers improve COVID-19 vaccines, the researchers said.

    “New coronaviruses could emerge in the human population in the future, and our hope is that this study provides insight into how immunity against SARS-CoV-2 could protect against severe disease caused by these unknown future coronaviruses,“ Dr. David Bean, a researcher at the Boston University Chobanian & Avedisian School of Medicine and one of the authors, said in a statement. ”The goal of our study is to provide this information to the scientific community, and thus inform vaccine development now, before new coronaviruses have emerged.”

    Because COVID-19 vaccines don’t work as well as hoped against the illness, some scientists have been working on pan-coronavirus vaccines that would protect against all coronaviruses.

    Most currently available COVID-19 vaccines only contain the spike protein from SARS-CoV-2.

    “Our studies suggest incorporation on other parts of the coronavirus genome, such as non-structural portions (something besides spike and nucleocapsid) may improve cellular responses,” Dr. Sagar said. “These cellular responses won’t necessarily prevent infection with highly related but not identical coronaviruses but it may reduce disease severity after infection.”

    The researchers previously found that people who had recent infections to endemic coronaviruses were better off against COVID-19, suggesting that the immune responses triggered by the viruses helped protect against COVID-19 infection.

    Another group of researchers said in a separate paper that the T cells produced when the body fights common cold viruses provided cross-protection against SARS-CoV-2.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/15/2024 – 19:50

  • Oakland Reparations Committee Demands $5 Million Just To Write Plan
    Oakland Reparations Committee Demands $5 Million Just To Write Plan

    A ‘reparations panel’ for Alameda County, whose largest city is Oakland, has demanded $5 million to come up with a plan for reparations over racism, and say it will take them two years to do it.

    Alameda County Supervisor Nate Miley speaks during a community celebration of Alameda County Supervisor Wilma Chan and her legacy at the Oakland Museum of California in Oakland, Calif., on Wednesday, Dec. 7, 2021. (Ray Chavez/Bay Area News Group)

    According to NPR affiliate KQED, the 15-member commission was assembled in March of 2023 to ‘study anti-black racism’ and come up with a plan to compensate allegedly harmed residents. We should note, the commission was supposed to have completed its work by this July. Instead, as KQED notes, “it has hardly started.” (plus the $5 million thing)

    Nate Miley, president of the Board of Supervisors and author of the resolution that created the Reparations Commission, blamed the pandemic and a months-long recall process of Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price, which is set for a vote this November.

    “I didn’t think it would take as long to get people appointed,” Miley told the outlet. “We do want to have a sense of urgency, and that’s why I was kind of looking at a year and a half, but maybe I might have been a bit ambitious.”

    The committee was the combination of two resolutions by the Board of Supervisors from 2011 and 2020. The first apologized for slavery and racial segregation, while the second vowed to examine the role that Alameda county played in perpetuating discrimination against black residents, and then come up with a plan to show them the money.

    “We are trying not to recreate the wheel,” said Debra Gore-Mann, president and CEO of Oakland racial justice organization the Greenlining Institute, who asked supervisors for a dedicated staff to complete their work, and a new deadline of June 30, 2026. Oh, and the $5 million.

    The commission also asked for a budget of about $5 million, dwarfing the initial budget allocation of approximately $51,000. The requested budget would support research, public outreach and community listening sessions over the next two years. Commission members currently receive a $50 stipend for each meeting they attend. -KQED

    “I think $5 million is a hefty amount of funding,” said Miley, who noted that the county’s budget deficit is projected to reach between $70 million and $100 million this year – and that even getting the board to respond and other support requests could take months.

    Last year, Milley suggested that reparations was not a top priority.

    “Quite frankly I think that’s not the lowest hanging fruit,” he said. “My feeling is, trying to get a check in the hands of African Americans is going to be a steep hill to climb.”

    During an Alameda County Board of Supervisors meeting in March of 2023, a vocal minority of residents stood vehemently opposed to the idea – calling reparations a “ponzi scheme,” a “robbery,” “an insult to the Black community,” “an insult to Martin Luther King,” “Marxist,” a way to “monetize the victim mentality” and even a path to “further enslavement.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/15/2024 – 19:15

  • "No Place in the Public Discourse": The Connecticut Bar Association Warns Lawyers Critical Of Trump Prosecutions
    “No Place in the Public Discourse”: The Connecticut Bar Association Warns Lawyers Critical Of Trump Prosecutions

    Authored by Jonathan Turley via jonathanturley.org,

    This week, I have received emails from Connecticut bar members over a message posted by President Maggie Castinado, President-Elect James T. (Tim) Shearin, and Vice President Emily A. Gianquinto warning them about criticizing the prosecutions of former President Donald Trump. The message from the bar leadership is chilling for those lawyers who view cases like the one in Manhattan as a raw political prosecution. While the letter does not outright state that such criticism will be considered unethical conduct, it states that the criticism has “no place in the public discourse” and calls on members to speak publicly in support of the integrity of these legal proceedings.

    The statement begins by warning members that “words matter” but then leaves the ramifications for bar members dangling on how it might matter to them. They simply note that some comments will be viewed as “cross[ing] the line from criticism to dangerous rhetoric.”

    According to the Connecticut Bar, it is now considered reckless and unprofessional to make analogies to show trials or to question the integrity of the legal system or the judges in such cases.

    For example, criticizing Judge Juan Merchan for refusing to recuse from the case is considered beyond the pale. Many lawyers believe that his political contributions to Biden and his daughter’s major role as a Democratic fundraiser and activist should have prompted Merchan to remove himself (and any appearance of a conflict). I have been more critical of his rulings, which I believe were both biased and wrong.

    Yet, the Bar is warning lawyers that such comments can cross the line. The letter assures members that they are free to criticize but warn that attacking the ethics of a judge or the motivations behind these cases is dangerous and could spark violence.

    I have previously denounced overheated rhetoric and share the concern over how such rage rhetoric can encourage violence. After the verdict, I immediately encouraged people not to yield to their anger, but to trust our legal system. I believe that the verdict in New York may ultimately be overturned. I also noted that I do not blame the jury but rather the judge and the prosecutors for an unfounded and unfair trial.

    Of course, the concern over rage rhetoric runs across our political spectrum. While rarely criticized in the media, we have seen an escalation of reckless rhetoric from the left. For example,  Georgetown Law Professor Josh Chafetz declared that “when the mob is right, some (but not all!) more aggressive tactics are justified.”

    My concern is not with the plea for lawyers to take care that their comments do not encourage such “aggressive tactics.” The problem is the suggestion that lawyers are acting somehow unprofessionally in denouncing what many view as a two-tier system of justice and the politicalization of our legal system.

    Like many, I believe that the Manhattan case was a flagrant example of such weaponization of the legal system and should be denounced by all lawyers. It is a return, in my view, to the type of political prosecution once common in this country.

    For those lawyers who view such prosecutions as political, they are speaking out in defense of what they believe is the essence of blind justice in America. What is “reckless” to the Connecticut Bar is righteous to others. Notably, the Bar officials did not write to denounce attacks on figures like Bill Barr or claims that the Justice Department was rigging justice during the Trump years.

    Likewise, the letter focuses on critics of the Trump prosecutions and not the continued attacks on conservative jurists like Justice Samuel Alito. It has never published warnings about those calling conservative justices profanities, attacking their religion, or labeling them “partisan hacks” or other even “insurrectionist sympathizers.” Liberal activists have been calling for stopping conservative jurists “by any means necessary.”

    In Connecticut, Sen. Richard Blumenthal has warned conservative justices to rule correctly or face “seismic changes.” That did not appear to worry the bar. Likewise, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer also declared in front of the Supreme Court “I want to tell you, Gorsuch, I want to tell you, Kavanaugh, you have released the whirlwind, and you will pay the price.”

    The letter goes further and suggests that lawyers should speak publicly in support of trials like the one in Manhattan, a view that ignores the deep misgivings over the motivations and means used in New York to target an unpopular figure in this city. You have the top Bar officials calling on lawyers to take a public position that is opposed by many lawyers and citizens in defending the integrity of these prosecutions. Imagine the response if the Idaho Bar called on its lawyers to speak out against these cases and declared that it is reckless or unprofessional to defend them.

    I expect that, in the very liberal Bar of Connecticut, the letter is hardly needed. Indeed, this letter is likely to be quite popular.  Yet, I would have thought that Bar officials would have taken greater care to respect the divergent opinions on these trials and the need to avoid any statements that might chill the exercise of free speech.

    Ironically, the letter only reinforced the view of a legal system that is maintaining a political orthodoxy and agenda. These officials declare that it is now unprofessional or reckless for lawyers to draw historical comparisons to show trials or to question the motives or ethics underlying these cases. They warn lawyers not to “sow distrust in the public for the courts where it does not belong.” Yet, many believe that there is an alarming threat to our legal system and that distrust is warranted in light of prosecution like the one in Manhattan.

    As discussed in my new book, The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage, critics of political prosecutions under the Crown and during the Adams Administrations were often threatened with disbarment or other legal actions for questioning the integrity or motives of judges or prosecutors. It is not enough to say “well that was then and this is now.” The point is that the Bar Association also has a duty to protect the core rights that define our legal system, particularly the right of free speech.

    Again, these officials are not threatening Bar action against critics of these cases. However, as evidenced by the emails in my inbox, it is being taken as a warning by many who hold misgivings over these prosecutions.

    Our legal system has nothing to fear from criticism. Indeed, free speech strengthens our system by exposing divisions and encouraging dialogue. It is orthodoxy and speech intolerance that represent the most serious threats to that system.

    Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro Professor of Public Interest Law at George Washington University. He is the author of “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage” (Simon and Schuster, 2024).

    Here is the message in its entirety:

    Dear Members,

    Words matter. Reckless words attacking the integrity of our judicial system matter even more.

    In the wake of the recent trial and conviction of former President Donald Trump, public officials have issued statements claiming that the trial was a “sham,” a “hoax,” and “rigged”; our justice system is “corrupt and rigged”; the judge was “corrupt” and “highly unethical”; and, that the jury was “partisan” and “precooked.” Others claimed the trial was “America’s first communist show trial”—a reference to historic purges of high-ranking communist officials that were used to eliminate political threats.

    These claims are unsubstantiated and reckless. Such statements can provoke acts of violence against those serving the public as employees of the judicial branch. Indeed, such statements have resulted in threats to those fulfilling their civic obligations by sitting on the jury, as evidenced by social media postings seeking to identify the names and addresses of the anonymous jurors and worse, in several cases urging that the jurors be shot or hanged. As importantly, such statements strike at the very integrity of the third branch of government and sow distrust in the public for the courts where it does not belong.

    To be clear, free speech includes criticism. There is and should be no prohibition on commenting on the decision to bring the prosecution, the prosecution’s legal theory, the judge’s rulings, or the verdict itself. But headlines’ grabbing, baseless allegations made by public officials cross the line from criticism to dangerous rhetoric. They have no place in the public discourse.

    It is up to us, as lawyers, to defend the courts and our judges. As individuals, and as an Association, we cannot let the charged political climate in which we live dismantle the third branch of government. To remain silent renders us complicit in that effort.

    Respect for the judicial system is essential to our democracy. The CBA condemns unsupported attacks on the integrity of that system.

    Sincerely,

    Maggie Castinado

    President,

    Connecticut Bar Association

    James T. (Tim) Shearin

    President-Elect,

    Connecticut Bar Association

    Emily A. Gianquinto

    Vice President,

    Connecticut Bar Association

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/15/2024 – 18:40

  • Condemned Cali House Spurs Bidding War And Eventually Sells For $755,000
    Condemned Cali House Spurs Bidding War And Eventually Sells For $755,000

    If you’re looking for signs that the California real estate market is cooling down, this probably isn’t the article for you.

    That’s because this past week the NY Post reported that a condemned house in Silicon Valley that’s ‘unfit for human occupancy’ just sold for three quarters of a million dollars after an intense bidding war. 

    The property at 2161 Elliot St. in San Jose, a modest seven-bedroom, two-bathroom home sold for $755,000, surpassing its $699,000 asking price. 

    The Post reported that it was purchased by a developer, will be redeveloped with an architect and resold.

    The bright teal house was built in 1900, the report says. It had an unrenovated interior with scuffed walls, a broken door, and dated appliances. 

    It was also deemed unfit for occupancy due to numerous code violations, and Santa Clara County condemned it. Despite this, its prime location on a nearly 4,000-square-foot corner lot in Burbank drew eager buyers, highlighting the area’s strong real estate market, said Compass agent Robert Gosalvez.

    He told the Post: “Due to its prime location and zoning, this property not only attracted attention from DIYers, builders and investors, but also from those seeking mixed-use properties all eager to capitalize on the opportunity.” 

    “The level of interest while on the market was substantial, leading to the distribution of dozens of disclosure packages and resulting in seven offers, all of which were either cash or have access to hard money loans,” he continued. 

    “I believe in a couple years or less, we will see a modern, attached, multi unit property on this lot,” he concluded.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/15/2024 – 18:05

  • House Passes $883 Billion Annual Defense Bill With Anti-DEI Amendments
    House Passes $883 Billion Annual Defense Bill With Anti-DEI Amendments

    Authored by Jackson Richman and Ryan Morgan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The U.S. Capitol building in Washington on June 10, 2024. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times)

    The House of Representatives on June 14 passed its annual defense policy bill with GOP-approved culture war amendments that are certain to put the House on a collision course with the Democrat-controlled Senate.

    The final tally on the 2025 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) vote was 217–199, with six Democrats voting in favor and three Republicans voting against.

    The $883.7 billion bill, which has more than 1,000 pages, provides continued funding for military aircraft, ships, vehicles, and weapons programs. It also includes a 4.5 percent pay raise for U.S. service members and about 15 percent in additional pay for some junior enlisted service members, bringing their overall pay boost to nearly 20 percent under this year’s budget.

    The NDAA includes culture war provisions such as eliminating diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) positions within the Department of Defense (DoD) and imposing a hiring freeze on DEI positions in the DoD. There is a measure to block DoD funding for abortion-related expenses, another that bars the DoD from funding or providing gender transition surgeries and hormone treatments, as well as measures to prohibit the DoD’s education arm from purchasing or displaying material that “promotes radical gender ideology or pornographic content.”

    The House version also includes an amendment, introduced by Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.), that prohibits the Pentagon from contracting with entities that have engaged in boycotts of Israel and would bar the department from selling products made by entities that boycott Israel at any of its commissary stores or military exchanges.

    Another amendment, introduced by Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), would block the DoD from allocating funds for various climate-action-related executive orders issued by President Joe Biden.

    Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said the House-passed bill will find no traction in the upper chamber.

    “The legislation coming out of the House today is loaded with anti-LGBTQ, anti-choice, anti-environment, and other divisive amendments guaranteed not to pass the Senate,” he said in a statement.

    “As we move forward with this year’s NDAA process, both sides will have to work together to pass bipartisan legislation that honors and respects all who serve in defense of our nation.”

    While the defense bill has traditionally passed in a bipartisan fashion, recent years have seen a marked increase in partisan amendments that are viewed as “poison pills” by the opposing party.

    The Senate version of $911.8 billion does not include the culture war amendments. Like the House, it does include support for military operations in the Indo-Pacific, including Taiwan, a 4.5 percent increase for service members. Unlike the House, however, the Senate would require women to sign up for the Selective Service System, the U.S. draft program that has not been in use since the Vietnam War.

    The House and Senate must now come up with a final bill that passes both chambers before it is sent to President Biden for his signature. The last NDAA, which was negotiated by leaders in the House and Senate, stripped most of the culture war amendments that had passed in the House version.

    “As we confront increasingly hostile threats from Communist China, Russia, and Iran, we must provide our military with all the tools they need to defend our nation and deter our enemies,” said House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) in a statement following the House NDAA’s passage.

    “This year’s NDAA will refocus our military on its core mission of defending America and its interests across the globe, fund the deployment of the National Guard to the southwest border, expedite innovation and reduce the acquisition timeline for new weaponry, support our allies, and strengthen our nuclear posture and missile defense programs.”

    Senate Armed Service Committee Chairman Jack Reed (D-R.I.) voted against the version that came out of his committee on June 14. He released a statement that said, “It includes a funding increase that cannot be appropriated without breaking lawful spending caps and causing unintended harm to our military.”

    The House NDAA is $12 billion less than the $895 billion cap for defense spending for the 2025 fiscal year under the debt ceiling deal that was agreed to last year while the Senate version is $16.8 billion more than that.

    On June 11, the White House issued a statement of administration policy laying out President Biden’s objections to several of the bill’s provisions.

    The White House expressed disappointment that the current version of the House NDAA provides $700 million less than the president requested for the annual shipbuilding budget and calls for funding one less ship than he had hoped for.

    President Biden also signaled his opposition to House provisions that would limit DEI programs.

    “The prohibitions regarding DEI efforts would impede DoD’s and Federal agencies’ ability to recruit and retain the diverse perspectives, experiences, and skill sets that are foundational to the strength of the Federal workforce,” the White House said.

    “Creating and supporting programs and policies that embrace DEI fosters workforce cultures that are inclusive of all individuals.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/15/2024 – 17:30

  • War On Nation's Food Supply?: Idaho Restricts Water To 500,000 Acres Of Farmland 
    War On Nation’s Food Supply?: Idaho Restricts Water To 500,000 Acres Of Farmland 

    In late May, Idaho Department of Water Resources Director Mathew Weaver issued a curtailment order requiring 6,400 junior groundwater rights holders who pump off the Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer to shut off their spigots.

    Idaho Gov. Brad Little issued a statement following the order on May 30, “Water curtailment is never desired, but the director must follow Idaho law and the Constitution in issuing this order.” 

    Brian Murdock, an East Idaho farmer, said the water curtailment affects 500,000 acres, which equates to roughly 781 square miles of farmland. 

    “Well, as you said, the state of Idaho and the Idaho Department of Water Resources has issued this curtailment of 500,000 acres. And to help put that in perspective, that’s basically 781 square miles of farm ground that is being taken out of production,” Murdock told the hosts of Fox News. 

    The grain and potato farmer continued, “And, of course, the worst problem is this is happening during a very plentiful water year. We have the reservoirs [that] are completely full, and when I mean full, they’re dang near breaking. The rivers are running as high as they possibly can. Just trying to keep those dams from breaking.” 

    In eastern Idaho, groundwater users with junior water rights breached the 2016 agreement in 2021 and 2022. Currently, Gov. Little, the lieutenant governor, the Director of Water Resources, and representatives from groundwater and surface water user groups are discussing a new deal. The plan is to strike a new agreement before the curtailment dries up the farmland. 

    Murdock told co-hosts Dagen McDowell and Sean Duffy that his family’s century-old farm faces a $3 million loss due to the state-issued order. 

    “This is the largest curtailment in the history of the United States as far as farm ground,” Murdock said in a video posted on X. 

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    In a commentary piece in the local paper Idaho Capital Sun, farmer Adam Young had a lot of questions about the state’s move to inflict pain on farmers:

    It’s hard to understand why the department chooses to be so openly hostile to groundwater irrigators or why they decided to inflict widespread, massive curtailment on the state in a year when water is abundantly plentiful. This is not what sound resource management looks like. It’s time for Idaho’s elected officials to step up and demonstrate true leadership on this crucial issue. This is not how Idaho water law, which relies on both “priority of time” and “the public policy of reasonable use of water,” was ever intended to work.

    Some X users believe the water curtailment is happening around the time as the governor commissions a new cobalt mining operation in the state. 

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    We must question whether a much larger, more insidious agenda is at play here. Is this part of the war on the food supply?

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/15/2024 – 16:55

  • RFK Jr. Says US Should 'Vastly Scale Back' Its Military Budget
    RFK Jr. Says US Should ‘Vastly Scale Back’ Its Military Budget

    Authored by Jeff Louderback via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks at the Nixon Library in Yorba Linda, Calif., on June 12, 2024. (John Fredricks/The Epoch Times)

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an outspoken critic of U.S. involvement in “forever wars,” reiterated his view that the nation should scale back its military presence abroad and shift its focus to domestic programs, during an address at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum on June 12.

    Mr. Kennedy did not mention the Russia–Ukraine or the Israel–Hamas war, but he said that the United States should “vastly scale back the military budget” and proposed a 50 percent reduction in military spending if he is elected president.

    This would lead to a “stronger, smarter, better targeted national defense,” he said, and would benefit the U.S. economy by reallocating that money to reducing the $34 trillion national debt and addressing domestic issues such as education, small-business development, and infrastructure.

    “If we use those savings to rebuild our country in every way, we will reverse spending that is a constant drain on our nation’s vitality,” he said.

    Mr. Kennedy appeared at the venue as part of the Richard Nixon Foundation’s Presidential Policy Perspective series, which has featured former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, former Vice President Mike Pence, and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson.

    Democratic National Committee spokesperson Matt Corridoni condemned Mr. Kennedy’s plan to cut defense spending.

    “With Russia, North Korea, and the Chinese Communist Party all watching, RFK Jr. is more than eager to peddle Kremlin talking point. Just like Donald Trump, he can’t be trusted to stand up for allies and against totalitarianism,” Mr. Corridoni said in a statement released after the address.

    Mr. Kennedy chastised U.S. foreign policy, stating that he believes it’s “stuck in a world that doesn’t exist” because the country believes “we’re still the world’s only superpower and can bend any nation to its will.”

    “The foundation of a nation’s strength is the sound of its infrastructure, the integrity of its government, economic strength, and respect of choices abroad. We have to accept the emergence of other great powers in the world,” he said.

    During his speech, Mr. Kennedy said, “We don’t need 800 bases abroad.” The United States spends more on its military budget than “the next 10 nations combined,” he noted.

    Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks at the Nixon Library in Yorba Linda, Calif., on June 12, 2024. (John Fredricks/The Epoch Times)

    Since the early stages of his presidential campaign, Mr. Kennedy has urged President Biden to negotiate a peaceful end to the Russia–Ukraine war, which started when Russia invaded the neighboring nation in February 2022.

    “Russia is not going to lose this war. Russia can’t afford it,” he told The Epoch Times in September. “It would be like us losing a war to Mexico.”

    Mr. Kennedy has said he’s sympathetic to the Ukrainian cause and that Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded the country illegally, but he has criticized the United States for its role, saying there had been multiple missed opportunities to peacefully settle the conflict and that “we have turned it into a proxy war between Russia and the United States.”

    He believes the Russia–Ukraine war is one of the root causes of the United States’ current economic problems and that the U.S. government has an “addiction to war.”

    “We’ve spent $8 trillion on wars since 9/11. If we kept that money home, we would’ve had child care for every American. We would have free college education for every American. We’d be able to pay for our Social Security system,” he told The Epoch Times.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/15/2024 – 16:20

  • Crew Abandons Sinking Bulk Carrier In Red Sea After Kamikaze Drone Boat Attack 
    Crew Abandons Sinking Bulk Carrier In Red Sea After Kamikaze Drone Boat Attack 

    Turmoil in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden intensified this week as Iran-backed Houthi rebels launched a series of attacks on commercial vessels traversing the critical maritime chokepoint. In a bold new move, the rebels deployed a suicide drone boat that slammed into the stern of a bulk carrier, paralyzing the vessel and forcing the crew to abandon the ship. 

    The drone boat attack on commodity-hauling bulk carrier “Tutor” was first reported on Wednesday. By Friday, the crew of the vessel was “evacuated by military authorities,” according to the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations. 

    UKMTO said, “The vessel has been abandoned and is drifting in the vicinity of the last reported position 14°20’00” N 041°56’00” E.” 

    Filipino-based media outlet ABS-CBN News spoke with Department of Migrant Workers Secretary Hans Cacdac, who said 21 of the 22 Filipino seafarers aboard the Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned, and operated bulk carrier were rescued. He did not specify which military rescued the crew. However, Bloomberg reports that a US Navy ship conducted an extraction operation at the end of the week.

    “The ship was adrift in the southern Red Sea,” Cacdac told reporters, adding one missing crew member is likely dead in the engine room. This is the area where the drone boat struck the bulk carrier. 

    Bloomberg said the ship is taking on water, and a salvage company has dispatched two tugboats to rescue it. 

    ABS-CBN News posted a video onboard the vessel before the extraction. 

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    Like security firm Ambrey, we have told readers this was the first time Houthis used remote-controlled, water-borne explosives.

    One commodity research firm with a high focus on oil/gas flows in the Middle East told us this won’t be the last time the Houthis use kamikaze drone boats against commercial vessels.

    In a separate report, Bloomberg cites US officials who believe Houthis are expanding “international partnerships with other militant groups as part of their campaign to disrupt global shipping and protest the Israel-Hamas war.” 

    Houthi’s aim in disrupting maritime chokepoints is to create a supply shock for the global economy.

    Containerized freight shipping rates are already soaring, and logjams are being reported at some of the world’s top ports. 

    The Houthis have only been emboldened by a weak Biden administration whose disastrous foreign policy decisions have unleashed fires across the world. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/15/2024 – 15:45

  • Nvidia, Apple And GameStop Are The Entire Stock Market Right Now…And That's Dangerous
    Nvidia, Apple And GameStop Are The Entire Stock Market Right Now…And That’s Dangerous

    Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

    Everybody knows it but nobody is giving it any serious consideration: the entire market is being driven by Nvidia, Apple and even GameStop. And when one, if not all three of these names starts to experience some selling, they are likely taking the whole market with it.

    I have been making note of the fact that Apple and Nvidia could be the market’s black swans for the better part of a year now. And forget about cash on the sidelines eventually drying up as a result of savings running out, the market is also not taking into account multiple looming red flags for these names.

    Zero Hedge has been all over the story of “bad” market breadth that no one on Wall Street seems to want to notice or talk about out loud. They wrote on X today:

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    For Apple, the company remains in the crosshairs of a massive antitrust investigation, the likes of which threw a cold blanket on Microsoft for the better part of a decade in the early 2000s. This is a very real risk that looms under the surface of the company’s buybacks, which are likely a large portion of the bid now. The company’s most recent ‘innovation’, the Vision Pro has also all but disappeared from public discourse after receiving tepid reviews.

    Also, Apple and Nvidia share something in common: their valuations, at 33x and 77x ttm earnings, respectively, are extremely aggressive. There is a far better case for an air pocket under these valuations than there is over them. So on top of 5.5% rates, bone dry consumer savings, record high credit card debt, unmarked commercial real estate books and continued debilitating inflation, there’s valuation risk. 

    🔥 80% OFF: Since it’s officially summer, I’m going to offer up my largest discount of the year for Fringe Finance: Get 80% off forever

    And GameStop…well, what better weathervane could their be for the unsophisticated money in the market? As it swings wildly, so swing the last few desperate dollars of retail traders, many of whom are trying for one last “YOLO” in the market with whatever little cash they have left. In the meantime, the company remains a loss-making nightmare with nearly zero fundamental case as its foundation, but for the hoarde of cash it now has and may use to acquire bolt-on acquisitions of companies who aren’t one step from death’s door. 

    And yesterday Zero Hedge noted that an equal weighted S&P – in other words, what the index would do if all components had the same weight and were being driven by Nvidia and Apple, which make up nearly 10% of the index – would be flat since February. 

    If these two names were to fall in tandem, it could be the fuse that finally winds up killing this current bull market.

    Goldman noted after Thursday’s session this week that the NASDAQ finished the day +0.57% despite an astounding 70% of the names in the index trading lower on the session. 

    And the Nvidia cycle of driving the market looks ponzi-ish, one response on X pointed out earlier this week: 

    “40% of S&P 500 gains are due to just $NVDA. As weighting goes up, more capital must flow in (b/c of benchmarking), further driving price up. US government is entirely reliant on equity market going up (capital gains tax) revenue. US government is already essentially insolvent (massive debasement is required, just to service debt), and so requires an even larger amount of cap gains tax revenue, just to service existing debt load. US government can pass laws to funnel unlimited amounts of money ($52B CHIPS Act) to the very company responsible for the majority of its revenue (via cap gains on the appreciation it’s caused, which is exacerbated as the weighting increases and forces benchmarking funds to further drive up the price).”

    And round and round we go. The only thing they failed to mention in that cycle is Nancy Pelosi’s purchases of Nvidia call options, which both add to the gamma squeeze and help her pocket cash based on having knowledge of the government’s actions in the world of subsidizing their favorite industries/companies.

    Zero Hedge joked on Friday:

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    But it really didn’t seem like much of a joke. While the indexes mostly held up, social media users were pointing out enormous numbers of stocks down more than 3% on the session:

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    It was about a week ago that I wrote about Nvidia and why I thought it had become a disproportionately large risk to the overall market. The stock now represents 6.5% of the S&P 500, an astronomical amount for one name to make up a 500-name index, and appears to be hitting peak levels of hysteria, as evidenced by CEO Jensen Huang signing autographs on the breasts of women at computer shows.

    This data shows that things aren’t nearly as safe and sound as the indices may be making it seem. There is very real concentration risk in the market right now and, other than Zero Hedge, no one on financial news or mainstream media is talking about it. 

    To the extent the seven stocks plus GameStop can remain “magnificent”, the market will continue to hold up. But make no mistake about it: so goeth Apple, Nvidia and GameStop, so goeth the market. 

    QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. These positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/15/2024 – 15:10

  • Sweden Rejects New Power Cable To Germany Over Market Inefficiencies
    Sweden Rejects New Power Cable To Germany Over Market Inefficiencies

    By Julianne Geiger of OilPrice.com

    In a significant move, the Swedish government has rejected the proposed 700 MW Hansa PowerBridge subsea power connection between Sweden and Germany.

    Energy Minister Ebba Busch cited inefficiencies in the German electricity market as the primary reason for the decision, emphasizing that connecting southern Sweden—already facing an electricity production deficit—with Germany could lead to higher prices and increased market instability.

    The Hansa PowerBridge project, a collaboration between grid operators Svenska Kraftnät and Germany’s 50Hertz, aimed to facilitate the transfer of renewable energy from the Nordics to Germany. However, the Swedish government raised concerns about the current state of the German power grid. Unlike Sweden, which is divided into four power price zones to manage grid bottlenecks, Germany operates as a single power market zone. This structure has led to significant congestion, particularly in moving power from the wind-rich north to the energy-consuming south, prompting calls for a market split—a move Germany resists due to potential price hikes and industrial impact in its southern regions.

    A spokesperson from 50Hertz expressed disappointment over the missed opportunity to strengthen Europe’s internal electricity market but maintained that the Swedish decision would not affect the future security of supply and system stability within the 50Hertz network area.

    This development comes against the backdrop of Germany’s broader energy strategy. Recently, EU competition regulators gave informal approval to Germany’s plan to subsidize 10 GW of new natural gas-fired power capacity. This initiative is part of Germany’s effort to stabilize its grid amid a substantial increase in wind and solar power installations. The new gas plants, which are designed to be hydrogen-convertible, are seen as a transitional measure to ensure a stable electricity supply as the country aims for 80% renewable energy by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2045.

    The rejection of the Hansa PowerBridge underscores the complexities and challenges of integrating European energy markets, especially as nations balance renewable energy ambitions with grid stability and market efficiency.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/15/2024 – 14:35

  • Attention Cash-Strapped Americans: Goldman Finds Top Supermarket Offering The Best Grocery Deals
    Attention Cash-Strapped Americans: Goldman Finds Top Supermarket Offering The Best Grocery Deals

    In the aggregate, consumers appear to be stable, with the Biden administration touting a solid economy ahead of the November presidential elections. However, as Goldman re-acknowledged earlier this week, under the surface, low-income consumers are struggling in the era of failed Bidenomics. Given this, a separate Goldman note has pinpointed the best grocery deals among major retailers, revealing that Walmart offers the lowest prices. This new data saves folks time instead of guessing where the best deals are.

    On June 6, Goldman analysts led by Leah Jordan analyzed the prices of 38 SKUs in the dairy, frozen goods, dry grocery, HPC, and produce categories. The retailers surveyed included Walmart, Sprouts Farmers Market, Whole Foods, and Dollar General. 

    “In this note, we discuss takeaways from our June grocery pricing survey. Overall, prices were relatively stable m/m. WMT continued to have the lowest prices, while price gaps widened,” Jordan said. 

    Jordan and the other analysts find that Walmart offered consumers the lowest prices for grocery items: “WMT had the lowest prices at -15.1% vs. the group average (widened from -12.0% last month), followed by KR at -3.5% (vs -3.5% last month). WFM had the highest prices in the group at +15.4%, followed by SFM at +11.2%. KR had the highest SKU availability for the products surveyed at 38, followed by WMT at 36.”

    Walmart had the lowest prices in dairy products (-18.3%), frozen foods (-15.7%), dry grocery (-13.5%), and produce (-17.3%), while Dollar General had the lowest prices in HPC (-13.9%). On the other hand, Sprouts Farmers had the highest prices in dairy products (+19.3%), frozen foods (15.0%), and HPC (+31.8%). Whole Foods had the highest prices in dry grocery (+10.0%) and produce (+20.4%).

    Amidst an economy full of inflation landmines, one thing is sure for working-poor consumers: Walmart offers the best grocery deals, while Whole Foods does not. 

    But as we found in Walmart’s latest earnings call, higher-income consumers are trading down to the mega-retailer to find the deals. 

    Food inflation is sticky. It will linger for years. Sigh…

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/15/2024 – 13:25

  • Americans Must Criticize Our Corrupt Courts
    Americans Must Criticize Our Corrupt Courts

    Authored by Carson Holloway via RealClearWire,

    Editor’s Note: The group quota regime is a revolutionary threat which aims to overthrow the political order of the United States and the Constitution that underlies it. In its maneuvers for political power, this revolutionary enemy already operates on a set of legal and constitutional principles entirely different from those on which our country was founded. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the corrupt prosecution of President Donald Trump, and the attendant, authoritarian insistence that criticism of the machinations of “justice” is unwelcome in a democratic society.

    In the wake of his conviction in a New York court, President Trump has complained that the process was rigged against him, that the whole proceeding was a corrupt effort to persecute him with a view to influencing the 2024 presidential election. In response, many of his opponents have criticized him for undermining public confidence in our system of criminal justice and thus harming our democracy—a criticism that has been magnified by many in the media.

    These critics, however, are missing the point and undermining a principle that is in fact essential to preserving our republic: namely, that criticism of the justice system when it errs or overreaches is necessary to preserving freedom under the rule of law.

    Those who founded our nation were aware of this necessity.

    Alexander Hamilton, representing the defendant in the famous libel case People v. Croswell, warned that “the most dangerous, the most sure, the most fatal of tyrannies” operated “by selecting and sacrificing single individuals, under the mask and forms of law, by dependent and partial tribunals.”

    “Against such measures,” Hamilton continued, “we ought to keep a vigilant eye and take a manly stand. Whenever they arise, we ought to resist, and resist till we have hurled the demagogues and tyrants from their imagined thrones.” No sensible American would look back on these remarks and think that, by them, Hamilton was undermining democracy.

    Hamilton’s great rival, Thomas Jefferson, acted on a similar view. As president, Jefferson pardoned publishers who had been convicted under the Sedition Act of 1798. Jefferson’s course of action here was inseparable from his belief that the Act was unconstitutional and that the courts of the United States had made themselves party to serious injustices by convicting defendants under it. Indeed, the pardoning power is included in the United States Constitution, and in many state constitutions, and is used routinely, precisely because prosecutors and courts can make mistakes and sometimes even willfully abuse their power over the lives and liberties of citizens.

    These dangers are also recognized in federal law. Title 18 of the United States Code prohibits and punishes “deprivation of rights under color of law.” By its very terms this provision acknowledges that sometimes those entrusted with the administration of justice are themselves guilty of behaving lawlessly and abusively. The United States Department of Justice’s website observes that this provision may be applied not only against “police officers, sheriff’s deputies, and prison guards” but also, as appropriate, against “judges, district attorneys,” and “other public officials.” This important provision is itself an acknowledgment by the government that all the proceedings of our justice system are not entitled to uncritical acceptance.

    Everyone conversant with American history knows that the problem of politicized and corrupt abuses of the justice system has not disappeared in the modern era, that it continues to rear its ugly head precisely when political passions run high and communities are inflamed against leaders for whom they harbor deep animosities. In the 1960s, Alabama state authorities brought Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. to trial on charges that he had committed perjury in relation to his tax filings.

    This prosecution was a transparently cynical attempt to deprive an important American political and social movement of its most effective leader. In that case, however, even the Alabama jury, composed exclusively of white men, perceived the abusive character of the case and returned an acquittal. Afterwards, Dr. King thanked the jury for their “fair, honest, and just verdict” and commended the Alabama judge for the “high and noble manner” in which he had conducted the case.

    If criticism of prosecutors and courts is permissible and necessary in certain circumstances, the only important question at present is whether such criticism is justified in the case of President Trump’s New York conviction. Would it be reasonable for impartial Americans today to echo Dr. King’s words and congratulate the Manhattan jury for a “fair” verdict and commend Judge Merchan for his “high and noble” handling of the case?

    For an answer to that question, we need not rely on Trump or his aggrieved supporters. We need only look to the evaluation of respected CNN legal analyst and former federal prosecutor Elie Honig, writing in New York Magazine: “Prosecutors Got Trump, But They Contorted the Law.”

    Carson Holloway is a Washington Fellow in the Claremont Institute’s Center for the American Way of Life. This article was first published at TomKlingenstein.com.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/15/2024 – 12:50

  • Military Draft Coming? House Passes Measure To Automatically Register Men For Selective Service
    Military Draft Coming? House Passes Measure To Automatically Register Men For Selective Service

    The House of Representatives on Friday approved its version of the annual defense policy bill, effectively clearing the $883.7 billion National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) to move forward in a 217-199 vote which largely fell along party lines. Only three Republicans opposed it.

    A number of ‘controversial’ amendments are part of it, setting up a further fight with Democrats as it moves forward, including a measure empowering the National Guard to crack down on the southern border.

    But among the most interesting aspects to the bill for Fiscal Year 2025 is an amendment to the NDAA which automatically registers all draft-age male U.S. residents with the Selective Service System.

    File image via Fox News

    This means that all able-bodied males in the country age 18-26 could potentially be drafted in the scenario of a future war declaration by Congress. The selection would be based on information from Federal databases.

    While there has been a Selective Service program in effect for decades, it has long previously only been voluntary, but this new amendment will make registration automatic. The merely ‘voluntary’ system had been in effect since 1980 – but critics have said that leaving it up for young men to decide for themselves whether to register has resulted in a weak and ineffective system with not enough numbers.

    According to more background for this new Congressional push: 

    The automatic draft registration proposal was instigated by the Selective Service System (SSS) as part of its annual budget request to Congress, introduced by Rep. Chrissy Houlahan (D-Pa.), “wholeheartedly” endorsed by HASC Chair Mike Rogers (R-Ala.), and approved by voice vote of the full committee without audible opposition. The text of Rep. Houlahan’s proposal can be read here. Her office’s press release on the proposal can be read here.

    Rep. Houlahan had been one of the leading advocates of proposals in previous years to expand draft registration to women as well as men. Her latest proposal for automatic registration of men only for a military draft indicates that she is more deeply committed to militarization than to any purported feminism.

    There’s been a rising number of military papers and reports calling for the reinstatement of a more robust draft system of late, especially in relation to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

    For example, last year the US Army War College’s academic journal included a highly disturbing essay on what lessons the US military should take away from the continuing war in Ukraine.

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    By far the most concerning and most relevant section of that War College essay for the average American citizen is a subsection entitled “Casualties, Replacements, and Reconstitutions” which directly states, “Large-scale combat operations troop requirements may well require a reconceptualization of the 1970s and 1980s volunteer force and a move toward partial conscription.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/15/2024 – 12:15

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Jun 15

Today’s News 15th June 2024

  • German Politicians Fingered In Chinese "Cash For Permits" Corruption Scandal
    German Politicians Fingered In Chinese “Cash For Permits” Corruption Scandal

    By Thomas Brooke, of Rmx.news

    The main suspect in an ongoing fraud investigation in Germany has incriminated several local politicians from the mainstream parties in the town of Düren, accusing key players in the district administration of taking bribes to approve bogus residence permits for wealthy Chinese nationals.

    Claus B., a lawyer suspected of leading a criminal enterprise that advertised its services to foreign nationals and registered fake companies in Germany to assist with work permits, says local politicians were complicit in the scheme and received incentives to look the other way.

    Former CDU district administrator Werner Stump was accused of having knowledge of the racket and has maintained a long-running relationship with Claus B., hosting his law firm’s parties at a hotel he runs and meeting regularly with the suspect to discuss real estate deals. Stump has denied violating any laws relating to the granting of residence permits and insists he has done everything necessary to cooperate with the investigating authorities.

    Another politician, Jens Bröker, a former SPD district administrator candidate who is now the department head for change and development in the Düren district, has been accused of being a major partner in the scheme, allegedly receiving up to €300,000 to use his influence and ensure the smooth approval of residence permit applications when landing on his desk.

    Bröker is also in custody and has been dismissed from his posts. His defense attorney did not respond to requests for comment by German media.

    Other politicians named in the scandal include former head of the immigration department and current treasurer Dirk Hürtgen (CDU) and his successor Sybille Haußmann (Greens) who allegedly facilitated the permit approvals, and District Administrator Wolfgang Spelthahn (CDU), president of the local football team FC Düren, which received substantial sponsorship and funding from companies owned by Claus B.

    Spelthahn has denied that he “received any monetary payments or other benefits” and insists the sponsorship contracts with FC Düren were “documented transparently, properly taxed and processed and supported by the entire board,” according to news outlet Junge Freiheit.

    Continue reading at rmx.news

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/14/2024 – 23:00

  • Farage's Reform UK Party Overtakes Sunak's Conservatives: Poll
    Farage’s Reform UK Party Overtakes Sunak’s Conservatives: Poll

    Europe’s marked shift towards populism appears to be accelerating, as Nigel Farage’s Reform UK Party has surpassed Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives in an opinion poll for the first time, signaling a potential shift in the British political landscape as the nation approaches the July 4 general election.

    According to a YouGov survey conducted for The Times, Reform UK now holds 19% of voter support, up two percentage points, while the Conservatives remain static at 18%. The opposition Labour Party continues to lead with 37% support. The poll, involving 2,211 respondents, was conducted from June 12 to June 13, shortly after Sunak’s announcement of a 17 billion pound ($21.70 billion) tax cut in the Conservative Party’s election manifesto.

    The rise of Reform UK coincides with Farage’s return to the political forefront, after he announced his intent to lead the party and seek election to Parliament. Farage, a pivotal figure in Britain’s Brexit movement, aims to reshape the political conversation around populist issues, including stringent immigration policies.

    “This is the inflection point. The only wasted vote now is a Conservative vote, we are the challengers to Labour and we are on our way,” Farage declared in a campaign video.

    Reform UK, initially founded as the Brexit Party in 2018, has embraced a platform that appeals to right-wing voters who feel alienated by the traditional Conservative agenda. This shift comes as Sunak faces criticism for his early departure from D-Day memorial events in France, an action that has cast a shadow over his campaign.

    Despite the latest polls showing Reform UK ahead of the Conservatives in terms of voter preference, the party’s evenly spread support across the country poses a significant challenge in the first-past-the-post electoral system. This system favors geographically concentrated backing, thus making it unlikely for Reform UK to secure many, if any, of the 650 parliamentary seats, despite potentially amassing millions of votes nationwide.

    A Conservative lawmaker, who asked to remain anonymous, commented on the shift – telling Reuters: “Yes. I think people are fed up with the Tories, but not with Conservatism. So they are moving to another Conservative party.”

    While other polls have shown the Conservatives with a more substantial lead over Reform, the momentum appears to be with Farage as he re-enters the political arena with a clear message and strategy aimed at disrupting the current political order. As the election approaches, it remains to be seen how this shift will impact the Conservative Party’s strategy and whether Farage’s renewed influence will translate into electoral success.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/14/2024 – 22:30

  • US Worried Israel Is Rushing Into War With Hezbollah With No Clear Strategy
    US Worried Israel Is Rushing Into War With Hezbollah With No Clear Strategy

    Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

    The Biden administration is concerned that the violence on the Israel-Lebanon border could soon escalate into a full-blown war and that Israel is rushing into the conflict without a clear strategy, Axios reported this week.

    US officials told Axios that the administration has cautioned Israel against the idea of a “limited war,” warning that Iran could intervene and militants in Iraq and Syria could join the fighting.

    Image: Israel Defense Forces

    The report said the White House believes a ceasefire in Gaza is the only thing that could reduce tensions on the Israel-Lebanon border. However, Israeli officials have previously threatened to escalate in Lebanon if a truce is reached in Gaza.

    The report comes after Israeli airstrikes killed a Hezbollah commander who was described as the most senior member of Hezbollah to be killed by Israel since October 2023.

    Hezbollah responded with a large volley of rockets. On Thursday, Israeli soldiers were spotted launching large fireballs into southern Lebanon to start fires.

    According to a tally from AFP, Israeli bombings in southern Lebanon have killed at least 468 people in southern Lebanon since October, including 89 civilians. On the Israeli side, Israeli authorities have said 15 soldiers and 11 civilians have been killed by Hezbollah.

    The US is calling for de-escalation on the border after the latest round of strikes, but there’s no sign diplomatic efforts are making any progress.

    There’s also no sign that the US is putting any real pressure on Israel to change what it’s doing in the north since US military aid continues to flow.

    Hezbollah publishes footage of fresh attacks on settlements of Kiryat Shmona, Kafr Sold, & Margaliot in northern Israel:

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    Back in January, The Washington Post reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might view a war in Lebanon as key to his political survival. President Biden said recently that people have “every reason” to believe that Netanyahu is dragging out the onslaught in Gaza for his own political self-preservation.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/14/2024 – 22:00

  • Eat More Pork Chops – A "Really Tasty Alternative" To Beeflation 
    Eat More Pork Chops – A “Really Tasty Alternative” To Beeflation 

    Cash-strapped consumers are on the hunt for deals this summer. We highlighted in a note earlier Friday that Goldman analysts revealed that Walmart offers the best grocery deals among major brick-and-mortar supermarkets. Digging deeper, the discussion has now shifted to the meat aisle. 

    Consumers are well aware of soaring beef prices over the last several years, primarily due to the collapse of the US cattle herd to its smallest size since the 1950s. 

    Collapsing herd. 

    Retail ground beef prices. 

    The good news for consumers is that with an abundance of pork supplies, prices are much more affordable than beef. 

    How much cheaper?

    Well… Wholesale pork prices are currently $2.13 per pound cheaper than beef. This added savings means consumers have increased purchasing power if they switch from beef to pork during this summer’s grilling season. 

    According to Bloomberg, the pork industry is finally about to catch some tailwinds after oversupplied conditions severely dented margins in recent years. Now, industry leaders are raising awareness about pork savings. 

    Pork producers have been under pressure as meat demand hasn’t kept pace with supplies and higher crop prices made it more expensive to feed herds. Still, attendees at the World Pork Expo in Des Moines, Iowa, last week expect the industry’s fortunes to start turning, with more demand giving them the bump needed to further improve margins. -BBG

    “I would ask that every American go out and buy as many pork chops as they can and share with their neighbors,” said Bryan Humphreys, CEO of the National Pork Producers Council, a hog producer trade group. 

    More from Bloomberg about the good fortunes coming to hog farmers: 

    Hog producers are seeing the beginnings of a turnaround after a pork glut sent profits plunging over the past year. For operators who bulk up pigs from farrowing to slaughter weight, margins in April turned profitable for the first time in seven months, according to Iowa State University data.

    “Every time that things get tough, people eat more pizza,” Rabobank senior animal protein analyst Christine McCracken explained, adding that ground pork is a “really tasty alternative” to ground beef. 

    And there you have it. Beef is becoming a luxury item. Pork is for the poors. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/14/2024 – 21:30

  • 76 Percent Of Those Under Age 40 Would Consider A China-Model Car
    76 Percent Of Those Under Age 40 Would Consider A China-Model Car

    Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk.com,

    Would You Buy a China-Made Car?

    The Wall Street Journal reports 2024 Polestar 2: Built to Compete With Tesla

    Our guest this week is the facelifted Polestar 2, a chic if somewhat cramped premium compact crossover built in China and brought to you by Volvo Cars in Gothenburg, Sweden. In 2010, the China-based conglomerate Geely bought Volvo Cars and now owns a 24% stake in the Polestar brand.

    Last week AutoPacific market research released survey results gauging Americans’ openness to Chinese imported vehicles. Of the 800 people surveyed, 35% said they would be open to buying a car from a China-based brand. Among the under-40, that number hits 76%, despite widespread concerns about personal privacy.

    It’s the age-based survey aspect that caught my eye, not the performance of the P2 that will cost close to $50,000.

    BYD to Slash EV Prices Even More

    Electrek reports BYD to Slash EV Prices Even More with New Platform as it Looks to Crush ICE Car Sales.

    BYD is leading an offensive against ICE vehicles. A new report claims BYD’s new EV platform will slash costs even further as the automaker kicks off a “liberation battle” against gas-powered cars.

    Best known for its low-cost EVs, such as the Dolphin, Atto 3, and sleek Seal sedan, BYD is taking its game up a notch in 2024.

    BYD launched a price war on ICE vehicles last month with the new Qin Plus EV and PHEV models. Starting at $15,200 (109,800 yuan), the new EV officially opened a “new era of electricity is cheaper than oil.”

    The DM-i (PHEV) version is even cheaper, starting at around $11,000 (79,800 yuan). It includes up to 74 mi (120 km) NEDC all-electric range.

    The all-electric Qin Plus is offered with 48 kWh or 57.6 kWh battery packs for up to 261 mi (420 km) or 316 mi (510 km) CLTC range, respectively.

    Last year, BYD introduced a DM-i model priced below the 100,000 yuan ($13,900) mark for the first time. The automaker said it was “directly destroying the moat of joint venture vehicles.” In other words, legacy automakers that are still selling gas-powered cars.

    Its next-gen DM-i system will enable PHEVs to drive over 1,200 miles (2,000 km) with a fuel tank and full charge. This will make it hard for traditional gas cars to compete.

    Although BYD isn’t planning to launch passenger EVs in the US, it is taking market share in key global markets, including Europe, Japan, South America, and Thailand.

    Electrek Reader Comment

    Personally I don’t care if all legacy US auto companies go out of business. BYD can make cheap $10,000 quality EV’s and US consumers should be able to buy them. Legacy automakers have been ripping us off for years by selling polluting gas guzzlers that break down far too often and cost us thousands of dollars to repair. The cheaper Chinese EV’s have less moving parts and are much cheaper to buy and maintain. BYD should be allowed to import their EV’s into the US and build an EV factory in the US.

    Deflationary Push From China

    On April 22, I cautioned A Big Deflationary Push From China But Will Biden or Trump Allow That?

    China keeps returning to a well that has run dry, using exports as a means for growth. China is about to hit a brick wall, with global consequences.

    Everyone thinks they can win a trade war. The only way to win is not play the game.

    Neither China, nor the US, nor Germany or Japan has figured this out. And everyone wants to be a big exporter. It’s mathematically impossible.

    Biden Hikes Tariffs 100 Percent

    On May 10, I noted Biden Wants EVs so Badly That He Will Quadruple Tariffs on Them

    Astute readers will immediately notice the title of this post makes no sense. It’s not supposed to. But it is exactly what President Biden is doing.

    Conflicting Goals

    We don’t want EVs unless people are willing to pay 100% more for them. And this is despite the claim that the world as we know it will end in 12 years if we don’t act on them.

    The EU Taxes Vehicles from China that its Own Companies Make

    Yesterday, I commented The EU Taxes Vehicles from China that its Own Companies Make

    As with the EU, Biden insists you buy an EV and he wants you to pay the most possible for it (no cheap BYD vehicles).

    On top of it, Biden has a Green mandate with no infrastructure in place, no way to produce the needed batteries with US materials, and no way to get the minerals given China has a 90 percent monopoly on nearly all of the processing and most of the mining.

    Trump wants to stop China as well.

    Look towards Mexico for China’s hoped for work around. Please note BYD Unveils the “Shark” a Plug-in Hybrid Pickup Truck Built in Mexico

    The Chinese automaker BYD (Build Your Dreams) announces a 700-mile range PHEV that will be built in Mexico, this year.

    China Shock II Is Coming, the EU Will Be Hit Hard, Then the US

    On May 17, I commented China Shock II Is Coming, the EU Will Be Hit Hard, Then the US

    Germany is feeling the pinch of China shock. But the US is on deck too. A global trade war looms.

    We are right on schedule for China Shock. And it will happen no matter who wins the election.

    Meanwhile, If you are interested in an inexpensive EV, both Trump and Biden want to stop you from having one.

    Short-term, a recession will help the Fed. Long-term, inflation pressures are still huge.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/14/2024 – 21:00

  • Mondelez Says Oreo Cookie Prices Won't Be Hiked Despite Cocoa Chaos In West Africa
    Mondelez Says Oreo Cookie Prices Won’t Be Hiked Despite Cocoa Chaos In West Africa

    Junk food maker Mondelez International remains optimistic that cocoa prices will drop at some point next year despite a global shortage sparked by adverse weather conditions in West Africa. This week, futures contracts in New York topped $10k/ton again. And the company reassured investors that it won’t raise prices on its chocolate-based products to protect its sales volume. 

    “My most probable scenario into next year is that costs will come down,” Chief Financial Officer Luca Zaramella said during the 4th Annual Evercore ISI Consumer & Retail Conference held virtually this week. 

    Zaramella, who was first quoted by Bloomberg, revealed that Mondelez, the maker of Oreo cookies and Toblerone bars, is well-prepared to purchase cocoa at lower prices. He also acknowledged the possibility of a temporary gap between high cocoa costs and affordable chocolate prices.

    “The name of the game for us is — particularly in a context where we believe chocolate costs will come down — to go through a potential temporary dislocation and protect volume and share as much as possible,” he added.

    The comments come as cocoa prices in New York surged above $10k/ton this week on the news the world’s top producers, Ivory Coast and Ghana, are experiencing worsening shortages of the bean.  

    Here’s our latest reports: 

    With prices above $10k/ton this week, commodity trader Pierre Andurand, who turned cocoa bull in March, is still bullish on his $20k/ton price target for later this year or next on the thesis of a continued slide in the inventory-to-grinding ratio.

    So, will Zaramella’s forecast of slumping cocoa prices next year be correct? Or will the junk food maker cave and eventually raise prices for consumers? 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/14/2024 – 20:30

  • Nashville Shooter’s Manifesto Released Despite FBI Resistance
    Nashville Shooter’s Manifesto Released Despite FBI Resistance

    Authored by John R. Lott Jr. via RealClearPolitics,

    The 2023 Nashville Covenant School murders understandably received massive news coverage when they occurred. The fight over obtaining the murderer’s diary also received news attention. But when “nearly four dozen pages” of the murderer’s diary were finally released last week, the mainstream media completely ignored it. It turns out that behind the scenes, the FBI had fought hard against the diary’s release. Some Covenant School parents also opposed releasing the diary because it would force families to re-live the nightmare. The Tennessee Star’s parent company, Star News Digital Media, successfully filed two lawsuits to obtain the diary.

    Five days after the release of the diary, with the exception of the New York Post, which is a national news outlet, the news coverage was limited to seven other conservative outlets such as The Daily Wire and Newsbusters.

    The school murderer was transgender, and her diary reveals a suicidal left-winger who hated whites. The FBI expressed concern that the release of the diary from a transgender person could lead the public “to dismiss the attacker as mentally ill,” which would “further permeate the false narrative that the majority of attackers are mentally ill.” It worried that the diary could “potentially inflam[e] the public.”

    The FBI worried that releasing the diary could have “unintended consequences for the segment of the population more vulnerable or open to conspiracy theories, which will undoubtedly abound.” Self-professed “experts,” the FBI fears, will “proffer their perspectives” in the press.

    But there is a lot of important information in the diary. As is very typical of mass public shooters, the murderer was suicidal: “A terrible feeling to know I am nothing of the gender I was born of. I am the most unhappy boy alive. I wish to be dead.” She was also on the anti-anxiety drug Buspirone, whose potential side effects include “abnormal dreams, outbursts of anger, tremors, and physical weakness.”

    The FBI worries that the diary will help create a link in people’s minds between mass murderers and mental illness, but suicidal people presumably have some mental health problems. Nor should the link be particularly surprising given that the Crime Prevention Research Center shows that 51% of mass public shooters in the last 25 years were actually seeing mental health care professionals before their attacks. That is 2.5 times the rate in the general public.

    The FBI acknowledged that Americans want to “understand what led to such tragic events.” But the FBI argued these statements “seldom provide the answers” and the diaries and manifestos were “often misleading.” Yet the national media appears completely uninterested in why these murderers pick the targets they do and how their motivation to get media coverage is important in understanding how to stop these attacks.

    The diary showed that the murderer had picked the Covenant School because it was a soft, unprotected target. Even if the national media ignored these comments, the Metro Nashville Police Chief John Drake, who had access to the diary, said on the day of the attack, “There was another location that was mentioned, but because of a threat assessment by the suspect of too much security, they decided not to.” A couple of days later, Nashville Council member Robert Swope stated that the murderer “looked at” two other Nashville public schools before deciding “the security was too great to do what she wanted to do.”

    While the FBI worries that many of “the offenders themselves do not fully grasp or comprehend” what they are writing, there is a logic to attacking facilities assumed to be gun-free zones, like the Covenant School, and trying to maximize the amount of media coverage that they receive. The FBI may not want to acknowledge this, and the media may not want to cover these points, but we see it consistently in these attacks.

    The mass murderer wanted to get attention for the difficulties facing transgender individuals. She compared trans individuals to other groups in a way that indicates she clearly believed that transgender people didn’t have the same rights: “Disabled have rights, civil races have rights, LGBTQ have rights, gun owners have rights.” But referring to the life of transgender people, she declared: “… with no rights, anyone’s country is a s***** dictatorship.”

    The news media and the FBI under the Biden administration are attempting to control the information available to Americans about a mentally troubled woman who identified as a man. The Biden administration is free to argue against linking transgender issues to mental illness or mass murder, but censoring the information is not the right approach.

    John R. Lott Jr. is a contributor to RealClearInvestigations, focusing on voting and gun rights. His articles have appeared in publications such as the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Los Angeles Times, New York Post, USA Today, and Chicago Tribune. Lott is an economist who has held research and/or teaching positions at the University of Chicago, Yale University, Stanford, UCLA, Wharton, and Rice.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/14/2024 – 20:00

  • Alex Jones Ordered To Liquidate Personal Assets, But Infowars Lives To Fight Another Day
    Alex Jones Ordered To Liquidate Personal Assets, But Infowars Lives To Fight Another Day

    A bankruptcy judge in Houston, Texas on Friday ordered Infowars founder Alex Jones to liquidate his personal assets to help pay roughly $1.5 billion in damages to Sandy Hook families, but handed Jones a win – dismissing a separate bankruptcy case over Infowars’ parent company, Free Speech Systems that would have handed control to the plaintiffs.

    In his ruling, US Bankruptcy Judge Christopher Lopez said that Sandy Hook families can pursue claims against Jones in state court without forcing Free Speech Systems into bankruptcy.

    “The right call is to dismiss this case,” said Lopez, giving Infowars a lifeline. “I think remaining assets can be resolved outside of a bankruptcy forum.”

    As for Jones’ personal bankruptcy, he had agreed to convert it into a Chapter 7 liquidation last week.

    “Those trustees will make decisions about where things go,” he continued. “We’re not leaving things into the wind here.”

    Infowars responds

    “It looks like Infowars just got some extra time,” said host Owen Shroyer on air after news of the ruling broke.

    Jones had been preparing his massive audience for a shutdown, as attorney for the families sought not only to take over Infowars, but Jones’ personal social media accounts which they argued is “no different than a customer list of any other liquidating business.”

    Shortly before the hearing, Jones addressed the public to describe possible outcomes.

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    The Sandy Hook families asked the judge to make clear that the Jones’ “@RealAlexJones” account on X.com, formerly known as Twitter, will be among the assets turned over to a court-appointed trustee in charge of liquidating Jones’ assets. Jones’ X account, which has 2.3 million followers, is “no different than a customer list of any other liquidating business,” the Sandy Hook families argued.

    They argued that Jones has used the social media account to push down the value of Infowars by diverting sales from that site to his father’s DrJonesNaturals.com, which sells health supplements and other products. –Reuters

    Jones’ attorney, Vickie Driver, hit back – arguing that the request was procedurally improper and that Jones would oppose the currently moot request.

    “The Connecticut Plaintiffs have never wanted money from Jones but to silence him,” said Driver.

    Early Friday morning, Jones explained what was going on while driving to court.

    Earlier this week, a court-appointed trustee for Free Speech Systems, who Jones said is a giant leftist, urged Lopez to convert Jones’ bankruptcy into a Chapter 7 liquidation – claiming that Jones’ reaction to his life’s work being dismantled was “erratic and unhinged,” and could therefore hurt the value of his business empire – thus reducing the amount that could be paid to the Sandy Hook families. 

    The plaintiffs in the case were sharply divided over the fight – with Connecticut families asking that the company be liquidated, and Texas plaintiffs who prevailed over Jones asking the case to be dismissed – arguing that they could better pursue funds if Infowars remained in business.

    Jones filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in late 2022, after filing for bankruptcy for Free Speech Systems earlier that year.

    Jones livestreamed on the way home from court, and will be on-air at 10AM central.

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    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/14/2024 – 19:30

  • NIH Documents Show $1.6 Billion Long COVID Initiative So Far Falls Short Of Goals
    NIH Documents Show $1.6 Billion Long COVID Initiative So Far Falls Short Of Goals

    Authored by Megan Redshaw, J.D. via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    (Naeblys/Shutterstock)

    It’s been more than three years since Congress directed the National Institutes of Health (NIH) to investigate the long-term effects of COVID-19—and there are still no answers for the millions of Americans suffering from long COVID.

    The NIH launched the $1.15 billion RECOVER initiative in early 2021 to understand, prevent, and develop potential treatments for long COVID. The NIH set deadlines for certain goals to be met when it allocated funding.

    But according to documents obtained by The Sick Times, MuckRock, and STAT through the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA), the goals outlined in contracts between the NIH and the institutions tasked with leading the research have not been met despite passing the deadline, and nearly all of the initial funding has already been allocated.

    “It’s a waste of money,” Dr. Darrel DeMello, a COVID-19 specialist, told The Epoch Times in an email. Dr. DeMello believes there should be a solution or a series of solutions for treating long COVID by now.

    Congress allocated more than a billion dollars to the NIH in December 2020 and recently signed off on an additional $515 million to bolster research efforts. However, the documents show the majority of the funding has been used for observational research to collect data instead of clinical trials that test therapies or treatments.

    NIH Recruited Data Experts, Not Long COVID Experts

    According to NIH documents, RECOVER relied on three central institutions for its long COVID research initiatives: New York University (NYU), Massachusetts General Hospital, and Research Triangle Institute.

    Collectively, these three contracts account for a significant portion of the $1.15 billion that Congress allocated to the NIH for long COVID research in 2020. The contract documents offer insights into how the NIH established its long COVID research initiative, the scientific expertise that the NIH prioritizes in its research teams, and RECOVER’s initial goals and timelines.

    The NIH did not choose scientists with established expertise treating COVID-19 or independent physicians currently seeing long COVID patients in the clinical setting. The agency largely chose personnel in the research field who have been or are presently funded by other NIH grants and specialize in data collection and information systems.

    According to the contract between NYU and NIH, experts with “key personnel experience” have backgrounds in biostatistics, data collection, and cardiac therapeutics. Key personnel working on the Massachusetts General RECOVER initiatives have backgrounds in biostatistics, epidemiology and environmental health, pharmacoepidemiology, pulmonology, rheumatic disease, information systems, cloud computing, and developing and implementing analytic tools for large data.

    Selecting researchers who have never treated acute COVID-19 infections will yield results, as those who treat COVID-19 infections are the ones who understand the actual underlying disease process, according to Dr. DeMello.

    Although the NIH has an expert list of investigators and clinicians providing oversight to working groups with expertise and clinical experience treating post-infection syndromes, myalgic encephalomyelitis, chronic fatigue syndrome, and other illnesses, only one expert is currently part of RECOVER’s listed leadership and its clinical trial leadership team.

    RECOVER Initiative Still Hasn’t Defined Long COVID

    An initial goal of RECOVER was to better define long COVID and the risk of developing the condition after a SARS-CoV-2 infection. This goal has not been met.

    Around 10 percent of adults who have had COVID-19 continue to experience long-term symptoms, commonly referred to as long COVID or post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC). This translates to millions of Americans, considering that over 100 million people in the United States have been infected with SARS-CoV-2.

    According to the NIH’s contract with NYU, its observational study aimed to recruit 85 percent of its cohort by spring 2022 and to have a working research-based definition of long COVID within the same timeframe. They did not reach 85 percent recruitment in 2022 and no working definition for long COVID has been provided.

    In a paper published more than a year ago in the Journal of the American Medical Association, RECOVER researchers sought to develop a long COVID definition based on self-reported symptoms that could be used in future studies.

    They found 37 symptoms across multiple pathophysiological domains present more often in SARS-CoV-2–infected participants at six months or more after infection compared with uninfected participants. Of these, the NIH said 12 symptoms best distinguished between those with and without long COVID, including post-exertional malaise, fatigue, brain fog, dizziness, gastrointestinal symptoms, heart palpitations, issues with sexual desire or capacity, loss of smell or taste, thirst, chronic cough, chest pain, and abnormal movements. This led experts and lawmakers to criticize the prioritized symptoms for diagnosis as more than 200 symptoms have been reported in those with long COVID. The NIH, in response, posted a Q&A to address concerns.

    The NIH reiterated that there is no definition of long COVID researchers can use to identify the disease, nor should insurers, disability agencies, or physicians use the study’s findings to clinically define or rule out long COVID. Additionally, the NIH acknowledged a working definition is evolving, but more research is needed before a definition can be used in clinical practice.

    RECOVER Has Not Started Clinical Trials

    The RECOVER website states that the NIH has finished planning the “full research protocols” for RECOVER observational studies, but clinical trial protocols have only been finalized for two of the five RECOVER clinical trials, and none of the clinical trials have completed enrollment.

    “I know everybody has been frustrated with how slow things are moving, but good science takes time,” Dr. Michelle Harkins told The Epoch Times.

    Dr. Harkins, a pulmonologist and critical care specialist, said she’s involved in three of the five RECOVER clinical trials.

    “It has taken longer than I would like to get them up and running, but there are some clinical trials in progress,” she said.

    “In the RECOVER-VITAL study, we are looking at Paxlovid, and two-thirds of the enrolled population is already in the study. We are going to be doing a sleep study at the University of Mexico to look at light therapy and other treatments, and we will be taking some of our patients from the observational cohorts for the clinical trial,” Dr. Harkins said.

    In a randomized clinical trial published June 7 in JAMA Internal Medicine, researchers from Stanford found that a 15-day course of Paxlovid was generally safe but did not show significant benefit in a group of 155 mostly vaccinated participants with long COVID. The clinical trial was funded by Pfizer and coauthored by experts on RECOVER’s post-infection illness expert list.

    “In the ENERGIZE study, researchers will look into transcranial direct current stimulator to assess neuro-component, and another study will look at POTS [Postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome] disease and IVIG [intravenous immunoglobulin],” Dr. Harkins added.

    In response to concerns that most of the funds went to data collection and observational research instead of clinical trials that could provide potential treatments for long-COVID patients, Dr. Harkins said observational cohorts will not provide specific answers but will provide “biobanking specimens” that scientists and researchers can learn from, which is especially important for the pediatric cohort.

    As to why it has taken so long for the clinical trials to get underway, Dr. Harkins said the enrollment process can take a while because participants have to be screened to ensure they qualify for the trial.

    “We want to make sure we put them in the right trial. If you put everyone with long COVID into a trial, you may not get answers, but if you put the person into the right trial based on their symptoms, we might be able to understand what treatments work for which group of patients. So, it is a little more detailed than just putting people into trials,” she explained.

    “Long COVID is very complex, and it affects multiple organ systems—so really finding one pill to fix long COVID is not going to happen, so we are trying to understand how people with certain symptoms respond to certain treatments,” she said. “I wish it were as easy as the vaccine, believe me. It is taking a long time, and that’s frustrating, I’m sure, for all of us—on the study side of things, too. I wish it were going faster, but we are making some progress.”

    At the same time, Dr. Harkins said some things could be done to speed things up. For example, faster clinical trials could be set up to test treatments that some patients and doctors are already using with some success, like low-dose naltrexone.

    “Can we set up a rapid clinical trial network like we had during COVID times, where we have a little less red tape and can push things through faster? There needs to be another arm that looks into a rapid clinical trial,” she said.

    Dr. Harkins said they’re close to finishing enrollment for the clinical trials she’s working on, but they will still need to perform the trial and follow participants for 120 days afterward.

    “I think we are going to have some answers on some of the clinical trials in the coming months, and hopefully, they’ll be causative answers so that we know how to help patients. In the meantime, the observational studies do still give us good information that we can use,” she said.

    “But I do think we could have a faster turnaround for all of the things that need to get done. Perhaps having a central entity to help fast-track and really study this so that we can move things forward, because we need to have these mechanisms in place for the pandemic or health crisis,” she added.

    Dr. Harkins said Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is working on a “moonshot bill,” which would provide $10 billion in funding over the next decade to establish a long COVID research program at the NIH. This funding would be in addition to recent funding allocated for the continued RECOVER trial and may help speed up the process. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/14/2024 – 19:00

  • LA City Council Removes U-Turn Signs In Gay Neighborhood Because They Are "Homophobic"
    LA City Council Removes U-Turn Signs In Gay Neighborhood Because They Are “Homophobic”

    Another bizarre virtue signal just in time for pride month.  Street signs that LA officials said previously targeted LGBT community members were taken down from a Silver Lake neighborhood this week.  The signs that read “No Cruising” and prohibited U-turns were installed in 1997 when neighbors allegedly complained about gay men stalking back and forth in vehicles looking for “dates” in certain residential areas. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    In other words, the signs interfere with the gay pastime of “cruising” (sexual solicitation).  Whether or not they were actually posted specifically to ward off gay people is not confirmed, but the simple act of obstructing LGBT people from doing whatever they want to do is now considered “homophobia” by progressives.   

    “For me, growing up in South Central Los Angeles, cruising had a very different meaning. It usually meant folks in their lowriders or their cars, a lot of hip-hop music, just going up down Crenshaw Boulevard,” Council member Soto-Martinez said. “But here in Silver Lake, cruising, of course, meant something very different. It meant an opportunity for the LGBT community to try to find human connection and intimacy and to be able to express themselves in a society at the time that was not very welcoming to the LGBT community.”

    The history of “cruising” in the gay community had very little to do with dating and far more to do with anonymous encounters as well as prostitution.  With the advent of more socially accepted gay society in the US in the 1970s, a cultural problem of sexual solicitation and lewdness arose in public bathrooms and public parks in cities across America.  The habit naturally attracted crime to certain areas and is even cited as one of the primary causes for the rapid spread of AIDS in the early 1980s.  

    The problem was apparently so bad in the neighborhood of Silver Lake that residents were compelled to put traffic restrictions in place to prevent people from driving back and forth on their street all day soliciting for sex.  Keep in mind, such laws also exist in places where straight prostitution and solicitation is common.     

    LGBT advocates argue that cruising encounters were a necessity due to social stigma and laws against homosexuality, but such issues did not exist in the late 1990s, especially in liberal LA.  The bottom line?  Hedonism is a consistent feature of gay society regardless of the laws or how much social acceptance is in vogue.  Cruising is not a necessary behavior, it’s a fetish.

    If residents of any neighborhood were faced with their area becoming a hot spot for solicitation and prostitution, gay or straight, it’s reasonable for them to do whatever they can to make it stop.      

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/14/2024 – 18:30

  • Top Tech Trio Melts Up To Record High As Rest Of Market, Europe Burns
    Top Tech Trio Melts Up To Record High As Rest Of Market, Europe Burns

    Another day, another tech-led meltup, which managed to reverse the early slump in the stock “market”, and push the S&P to just shy of closing green, and the 41st record high of 2024, on the back of just one idea: this one.

    Frankly, the whole AI meltup has become stupid: with the Mag 7 concept now dead and buried, all that matters are the Top 3 Tech Trio – Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia – which all have the almost same market cap, just around $3.2 trillion, and which as reported yesterday, are just  “Taking Turns Going On Runs To All Time Highs“, with Nvidia overtaking Apple again today yet both just behind Microsoft…

    … as traders expect that somehow the rest of the world will plow trillions into these three companies in perpetuity to justify their market cap, which of course will never happen (especially with the stagflationary recession that is looming according to pretty much any other industry) and instead these top AI-linked companies have so far disclosed relatively modest backlogs and cloud/data center RPO datapoints. According to Goldman, revenue allocated to RPOs for the cloud/data center segment was a paltry $242 billion as of March 31.

    That doesn’t matter however, because once in momentum, the party must go on, and until the buyback blackout period begins after the close today, the party is in full swing.

    Indeed, take Apple, which first saw its most disappointing WWDC performance in a decade – and with good reason: an AI-enabled Siri where all your queries are intercepted by the NSA tool that is ChatGPT, is still just as useless as Siri – only to explode higher the very next day as Tim Cook unleashed a massive buyback spree to create the impression that Apple’s official foray into AI wasn’t actually a total dud, and which in this extremely illiquid market sent the AAPL RSI to 80 making it the most overbought stock in three years…

    … as the buyback was promptly joined by what may have appears to be the world’s biggest gamma squeeze!

    And so, with the daily stock buyback-cum-gamma squeeze chase rotating among the Top Three Techs, the resulting action has pushed the S&P to record highs on 30 days this year, and four consecutive ATHs this week (Friday will be a wash) while the equal-weighted S&P has not moved in the past 4 months!

    But it’s not just tech vs non-tech. Even within tech there is a staggering divergence – Nasdaq hit a new record high despite 72% of the index close lower on the session and more than twice as many new lows as new highs...

    … and with the equal-weighted Nasdaq now underperforming 9 of the past 10 days!

    And here is the chart of the week: Nasdaq vs Nasdaq advance/decline line. Absolutely crazy.

    So while all the buying now focuses on just a handful of stocks, this is what the S&P looked at the close: 2 sectors green and 9 red….

    … and yet, that epic imbalance didn’t stop spoos from closing unchanged!

    Literally, literally, nothing but those 3 companies matters any more, certainly not the Russell 2000 index which is down three days in a row.

    But while algos and traders are staring in fascination at the daily chase to new record highs among the “Top 3” and ignoring the rest of the S&P, things outside the US are turning ugly. No, not China, which as everyone knows is a basket case, and where the recent bounce is now over and done as the CSI slides from the mid-May highs…

    … we are talking about Europe, and specifically France, where as noted earlier, the upcoming elections called so unexpectedly by president Macron, are now setting up to be a disaster for the French president, who is looking at a catastrophic loss following the snap formation of a leftist alliance, and which sent the French CAC40 plunging the most this week since early 2022, driven by plunging banks (SocGen down 12%, BNP Paribas down 10%)…

    … but it wasn’t France’s stocks that were the highlight: instead it was the plunge in French bonds and the record blow out in the French-German yield spread…

    … which widened 29bps this week to 77bps, the highest since 2017…

    … that should be truly spooking markets as nobody, and we mean nobody, is prepared for another European debt crisis right now…. although this may be just the “crisis”, similar to Covid, the world needs to shock central banks into aggressively easing over the coming months and ahead of the US presidential election. To this point, the 10Y clearly knows which was the wind is blowing and ignoring the meltup in tech, TSY yields tumbled to the lowest level since early May.

    And speaking of tightening, in the biggest news overnight, the BOJ once again kicked the can on actually tightening financial conditions and trimming its bond buying, and even as Japan reels under staggering inflation, the idiots that pass for its central bankers somehow managed to spark another yen rout, and only the imminent arrival of the next European sovereign bond crisis managed to push the yen modestly higher.

    Yet while the coming central bank deluge was noted by gold and silver, both of which closed at session highs…

    … crypto remains in an algo-driven world of its own, and tumbled all session since the European close for no reason even as ETFs now own 1 million of the 21 million bitcoins that will ever be mined.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/14/2024 – 18:11

  • DOJ Won’t Pursue Criminal Contempt Charges Against Garland
    DOJ Won’t Pursue Criminal Contempt Charges Against Garland

    Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Attorney General Merrick Garland testifies before the House Judiciary Committee in Congress in Washington on Sept. 20, 2023. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times)

    An official from the Department of Justice (DOJ) told House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) in a letter that Attorney General Merrick Garland will not be prosecuted for contempt of Congress because his refusal to hand over audio recordings of President Joe Biden’s interview with a prosecutor did not amount to a crime.

    In the letter, which was obtained by several media outlets, the DOJ official said that Mr. Garland’s refusal to comply with a subpoena demanding audio records of an interview that special counsel Robert Hur conducted with President Biden in his investigation into the president’s alleged mishandling of classified documents “did not constitute a crime.”

    “Consistent with this longstanding position and uniform practice, the Department has determined that the responses by Attorney General Garland to the subpoenas issued by the Committees did not constitute a crime, and accordingly the Department will not bring the congressional contempt citation before a grand jury or take any other action to prosecute the Attorney General,” Carlos Felipe Uriarte, an assistant attorney general, wrote in the letter.

    The letter also cited DOJ policy not to prosecute officials for contempt of Congress when they don’t comply with subpoenas due to a presidential claim of executive privilege.

    A request for comment and confirmation of the content of the letter sent to the DOJ was not immediately returned.

    More Details

    The refusal to pursue contempt charges against Mr. Garland comes after the House voted on June 12 to hold him in contempt for failing to comply with the subpoena to turn over the tapes.

    The House resolution, which passed in a mostly party-line 216–207 vote, came amid a months-long standoff between Republicans and the DOJ over the production of the audio recordings of President Biden’s two-day interview with the special counsel.

    House Republicans have said that they want to obtain the recordings to verify Mr. Hur’s assertions that President Biden couldn’t recollect certain facts during the interview. They have alleged that a two-tiered justice system exists because Mr. Hur opted to not charge President Biden while former President Donald Trump faces multiple charges in connection with his own classified documents probe.

    Mr. Hur, who faced criticism from Democrats and the White House for remarks on the president’s cognitive capacity in his report, didn’t recommend charges against President Biden, in part because of his ailing memory.

    “At trial, Mr. Biden would likely present himself to a jury, as he did during our interview of him, as a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory,” the special counsel wrote in his 388-page report, which found that President Biden “willfully retained and disclosed classified materials” when he was a private citizen after the end of his term as vice president during the Obama administration.

    While Republicans have said that they want the tapes to verify Mr. Hur’s assertions, Democrats have argued that Republicans want to use the tapes in campaign ads to portray President Biden as a frail leader with a poor memory who’s too old to serve another term in the Oval Office.

    Mr. Hur revealed in testimony before the House Judiciary Committee in March that White House officials sought to soften his report’s characterizations of President Biden’s ailing memory.

    Mr. Uriarte’s letter to Mr. Johnson also states that the DOJ made efforts to accommodate Congressional requests for information related to Mr. Hur’s interview of the president, including producing a transcript of the conversation.

    The DOJ official also cited a “lack of a sufficient need” for the production of the audio tape of the interview that would “further a legitimate congressional purpose.”

    Executive Privilege

    On May 16, President Biden asserted executive privilege over the interview tapes, with the White House counsel’s office notifying House Republicans of the move just hours before they were expected to recommend holding Mr. Garland in contempt for refusing to hand them over.

    Mr. Garland and White House Counsel Ed Siskel defended the executive privilege assertion as necessary because it could affect future investigations.

    In a May 15 letter to the president, Mr. Garland said that the “committee’s needs are plainly insufficient to outweigh the deleterious effects that the production of the recordings would have on the integrity and effectiveness of similar law enforcement investigations in the future.”

    President Biden’s counsel accused House Republicans of wanting the tapes to craft political attack ads.

    “The absence of a legitimate need for the audio recordings lays bare your likely goal—to chop them up, distort them, and use them for partisan political purposes,” Ed Siskel, President Biden’s counsel, wrote to Reps. James Comer (R-Ky.) and Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) in a May 16 letter. “Demanding such sensitive and constitutionally-protected law enforcement materials from the Executive Branch because you want to manipulate them for potential political gain is inappropriate.”

    Still, the House Oversight Committee, chaired by Mr. Comer, and the House Judiciary Committee, chaired by Mr. Jordan, both voted on May 16 to hold Mr. Garland in contempt of Congress despite President Biden’s executive privilege intervention.

    Mr. Johnson has been critical of efforts to block the release of the tapes.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/14/2024 – 18:05

  • Southwest Boeing 737 Max Came Within 400 Feet From Crashing In Ocean Near Hawaii
    Southwest Boeing 737 Max Came Within 400 Feet From Crashing In Ocean Near Hawaii

    Bloomberg has obtained an internal memo from Southwest Airlines that was recently distributed to pilots. The memo details a frightening incident in April when a Boeing 737 Max 8 nearly crashed into the ocean off the coast of Hawaii during an aborted landing.

    The memo states Southwest Flight 2786 dropped at an abnormally high rate of more than 4,000 feet per minute before one of the pilots was able to sharply pull back on the yoke, sending the jet climbing at 8,500 feet per minute. The jet was 400 feet from hitting the ocean when the pilot recovered the aircraft.

    Data from from flight tracking website ADS-B Exchange shows Flight 2786 dropped from an altitude of about 1,000 feet to 400 feet above the ocean in just a few seconds. The plane was near Lihue Airport on the island of Kauai during the incident.

    Flight 2786 mishap was previously unreported and adds to the safety challenges facing the aviation industry, especially Boeing jets.

    The memo shows the incident was likely pilot-induced – and not a Max glitch:  

    According to Southwest’s review, the incident occurred following an aborted landing attempt due to inclement weather that blocked the pilots from seeing the runway by a specified altitude.

    The captain opted to put the “newer” first officer in command on the short flight to Lihue despite the forecasts, according to the memo.

    The less-experienced first officer “inadvertently” pushed forward on the control column, then cut the speed causing the airplane to descend. Soon after, a warning system sounded alarms the jet was getting too close to the surface and the captain ordered the first officer to increase thrust. The plane then “climbed aggressively” at 8,500 feet per minute, the memo said. -BBG

    For some context about stable and controlled flight, commercial jets usually glide down on approach at around a rate of 1,500 to 2,000 feet a minute before landing. The 8,500 feet per minute rate is very extreme and not controlled.

    Bloomberg noted, “That incident was investigated by both the FAA and NTSB, which found the mishap resulted from a miscommunication between the pilots on the aircraft.” 

    Kit Darby, a former commercial airline pilot and flight instructor, said the pilot was “pitching up and pitching down with the power and close to out of control — very close,”  adding, “It would feel like a roller coaster ride.” 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/14/2024 – 17:40

  • FDA Changes Course, Advises Updated COVID-19 Vaccines Target KP.2 Strain
    FDA Changes Course, Advises Updated COVID-19 Vaccines Target KP.2 Strain

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A healthcare worker prepares a COVID-19 vaccine in New York City in a file photograph. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)

    The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on June 13 changed course and recommended COVID-19 manufacturers target the KP.2 virus strain in their next round of shots.

    The regulatory agency had said earlier this month it was following advice from its advisers and directing manufacturers to target the JN.1 variant.

    The change “is intended to ensure that the COVID-19 vaccines (2024-2025 Formula) more closely match circulating SARS-CoV-2 strains,” the regulators said. SARS-CoV-2 is the virus that causes COVID-19.

    The change is “based on the most current available data, along with the recent rise in cases of COVID-19 in areas of the country,” the FDA said in a statement.

    The regulators, though, said manufacturers could choose whether or not to target KP.2, a sublineage of JN.1.

    That likely means consumers will be presented with different vaccines in the fall, which the FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee advised against.

    “I do think about some potential for confusion, particularly if there were different variants included in different vaccines,” Dr. Archana Chatterjee, one of the advisers, said during the committee’s recent meeting. “There’s enough confusion already about this vaccine.”

    Pfizer and Moderna, which produce modified messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) vaccines, have said they can produce vaccines targeting KP.2 or JN.1. However, Novavax, which makes a protein-based vaccine, has said it developed a JN.1 vaccine and would not be able to shift to a KP.2-based product in time for the fall. Protein-based vaccines require more manufacturing time than mRNA shots.

    JN.1 was displaced in May in the United States by KP.2 and KP.3, two sublineages, according to estimates from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. As of June 8, KP.3 was responsible for a quarter of the cases in the United States, and KP.2 was responsible for 22.5 percent of the cases in the country, according to the estimates.

    The strains LB.1 and XDV.1 are also on the rise.

    Advisers had noted that by the time the vaccines are available in September, the circulating strains might be different. That’s one reason they recommended targeting JN.1.

    “If we’re going to stick with a monovalent for now, the trunk of the tree is the best bet,” said Dr. Bruce Gellin, another adviser.

    Some advisers said they thought the new vaccines should contain multiple strains, but FDA officials rejected that advice and said the new shots will be monovalent.

    The currently available vaccines from Pfizer, Moderna, and Novavax target the XBB.1.5, which was displaced in 2023 before the shots were brought to the market. They have been taken by 22.5 percent of adults and 14.4 percent of children, according to government surveys. The effectiveness of the vaccines quickly drops, according to data presented at the FDA meeting. [delete]

    Officials say the vaccines will likely be updated once a year moving forward in a bid to counter waning effectiveness.

    New Studies

    The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, meanwhile, announced Thursday it is committing $500 million for clinical trials evaluating experimental vaccines against COVID-19. [delete]

    The vaccines are administered as a nasal spray or a pill, while the shots on the market are administered by needle.

    The bulk of the money is going to California-based Vaxart, which is developing a pill vaccine.

    New York-based Castlevax and Georgia-based Cyanvac are also receiving funds for their intranasal vaccine candidates.

    “We are making progress on the development of cutting-edge treatments, such as vaccines administered as a nasal spray or as a pill,“ Health Secretary Xavier Becerra said in a statement. ”The Biden-Harris Administration won’t stop until we have the next generation of innovative vaccines, therapeutics, and other tools to protect against COVID-19, or any other pathogen that could threaten the American public.”

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/14/2024 – 17:15

  • NATO Expansion: A New Detailed Timeline
    NATO Expansion: A New Detailed Timeline

    The official website of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization has since January of this year featured an entire page which seeks to “debunk” what it calls “Russian disinformation on NATO”. 

    The series of “myths” that the official NATO page sets out to dispel in one section mocks the very term “NATO expansion”—strongly suggesting that it’s so misleading, the words shouldn’t even be used in conversation or in media reporting.

    Here is what NATO claims as part of its ‘debunking’ and setting forth of ‘facts’…

    The wording “NATO expansion” is already part of the myth. NATO did not hunt for new members or want to “expand eastward.” NATO respects every nation’s right to choose its own path. NATO membership is a decision for NATO Allies and those countries who wish to join alone.

    Via Reuters

    In recent days Terry Cowan – a geopolitical commentator and Lecturer of History at University of Texas at Tyler – has compiled a new and very helpful timeline documenting the history of NATO’s eastward expansion to Russia’s doorstep. 

    Below is professor Cowan’s NATO Expansion: A Timeline.

    * * *

    There is an official narrative to our war with Russia through Ukrainian proxies. To be sure, Russian troops did cross the Ukrainian border, and territorial integrity is important to us, except, of course, when it isn’t.  President Biden enunciated it on the day Russian troops poured over the Ukrainian border:

    “This was never about genuine security concerns on their part. It was always about naked aggression, about Putin’s desire for empire  by any means necessary–by bullying Russia’s neighbors through coercion and corruption, by changing  borders by force, and, ultimately, by choosing a war without a cause.”

    Biden has reiterated that view, certainly less articulately, in recent days at the D-Day observances in Normandy, but the basic outline is still there, to-wit:

    1. Our heavy involvement in Ukraine since 1991 did nothing to contribute to the conflict.

    2. Russia’s security concerns about the advancement of NATO eastward are silly.

    3. There are bullies in the world, but the bully is never us.

    4. Although the 4th largest economy in the world (in purchasing power), Russia still longs to recreate the Soviet Union.

    5. Russia is corrupt, although their current leader is elected, while Ukraine is not corrupt, although their current leader rules by martial law.

    6. Changing borders is wrong, when Russia does it. When we do it (Kosovo), it is for humanitarian reasons.

    7. No actions by the West or Ukraine over 8 years against Russian speakers in the Donbass that resulted in 14,000 deaths provide any justification for Russia’s actions.

    8. Russia is bad, the West is good.

    So there you have it. This is our official narrative. This aligns with our sentiments and comforts our ideological prejudices, even if it is lacks much in the way of self-awareness.

    There is another narrative, however; one that is not ideologically-driven and is buttressed by actual facts. That is the story Glenn Diesen tells in The Ukraine War & the Eurasian World Order. What I have done is to construct a Time Line of NATO expansion, taken from Diesen’s narrative. I find it compelling. 

    NATO Expansion: A Timeline

    From: The Ukraine War & the Eurasian World Order by Glenn Diesen (Atlanta: Clarity Press, Inc., 2024)

    1975

    The Helsinki Accords

    Outlined a common framework for European security

    1987

    George Kennan: 

    “Were the Soviet Union to sink tomorrow under the waters of the ocean, the American military-industrial complex would have to go on, substantially unchanged until some other adversary could be invented.  Anything else would be an unacceptable shock to the American economy.”

    1989

    “Common European Home”

    Gorbachev’s plan to demilitarize Europe by disbanding both the Warsaw Pact & NATO

    “Europe Whole and Free”

    The U.S. rejected Gorbachev’s plan; offers universalism of liberal democracy as the foundation for a common Europe

    Malta Summit

    Negotiated end to the Cold War; Russia would not use military to suppress democracy movements in eastern Europe; Russia agreed to unification of Germany; the U.S. (Bush & SoS James Baker) promised NATO would expand “not one inch eastward.”  These promises were not only  made by Bush & Baker, but by Hans-Dietrich Genscher (the West German foreign minister), Helmut Kohl, Robert Gates, Francois Mitterrand, Margaret Thatcher, Douglas Hurd, John Major, and Manfred Wörner.

    1990

    The Charter of Paris for a New Europe

    Based on Helsinki Accords, sovereign equality with no dividing lines, to preserve principles of CoP, NATO would have to remain a status quo power

    1994

    Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE)

    Translated Helsinki Accords & Charter of Paris into an actual security organization; dismissed by the U.S.

    1994

    The U.S. began to pursue NATO expansion under old slogan “Europe Whole and Free”; the West failed to reform/transform itself after end of Cold War–became fundamentally militaristic with the assumption of superiority in light of Russia’s weakness.

    1994

    “Partnership for Peace”

    President Clinton advocated this as an alternative to NATO expansion; instead became stepping-stone t0 NATO membership. “Clinton was talking out of both sides of his mouth.”  Boris Yeltsin saw this as the beginning of a new split in Europe. Secretary of Defense William Perry argued against expansion, but was met with response of “Who cares what they think?  They’re a third-rate power.”

    1994

    Boris Yeltsin

    “History demonstrates that it is a dangerous illusion to suppose that the destinies of continents and of the world community in general can somehow be managed from single capital.”

    1995

    20 former U.S. officials wrote open letter opposing NATO expansion, “convincing most  Russians that the United States and the West are attempting to isolate, encircle and subordinate them, rather than integrating them into a new European system of collective security.”

    1996

    President Clinton:

    “We keep tellin ol’ Boris, ‘O.K., now, here’s what you’ve got to do next–here’s some more shit for your face.”

    1997

    50 prominent U.S. foreign policy experts sent letter to President Clinton warning that NATO expansion “is a policy error of historic proportions.”

    George Kennan: 

    “expanding NATO would be the most fateful error of American policy in the entire post-cold war era…Why with all the hopeful possibilities engendered by the end of the cold war, should East-West relations become centered on the question of who would be allied with whom and, by implication, against whom.”

    1997

    Ambassador Jack Matlock argued that Washington repeated the same mistake made at Versailles in 1919 by excluding Russian and establishing a security order that would perpetuate the weakness of Russia.

    1997

    Madeleine Albright: 

    “…if Russia doesn’t work out the way that we are hoping it will…NATO is there.” 

    The justification of NATO’s post-Cold War existence was therefore to respond to the security threats that had been created by its expansion.

    Former Secretary of State James Baker warned that the purported need for an insurance policy could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.:  “The best way to find an enemy is to look for one, and I worry that that is what we are doing when we try to isolate Russia.”

    Ambassador Jack Matlock:

    “May well go down in history as the most profound strategic blunder made since the end of the Cold War.”

    Zbigniew Brzezinski

    “Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire.”

    1998

    George Kennan:

    “I think it is the beginning of a new cold war…There was no reason for this whatsoever.  No one was threatening anybody else.  This expansion would make the Founding Fathers of this country turn over in their graves…Of course there is going to be a bad reaction from Russia, and then [the NATO expanders] will say that we always told you that is how the Russians are–but this is just wrong.” 

    1999

    NATO invasion of Yugoslavia

    NATO represents European security and can supersede international law.  Henry Kissinger warned that this transformation of NATO from a defensive alliance into an offensive alliance contradicted our repeated assurances to Russia that they had nothing to fear from a NATO expansion.

    NATO occupies Kosovo

    NATO obtains UN mandate to occupy the Kosovo region of Yugoslavia under the specific condition of upholding Yugoslavia’s territorial integrity.  Used as venue for NATO base in the Balkans, and to change realities on the ground.  

    On the last day of the year, Boris Yeltsin steps down and handed presidency over to his prime minister, Vladimir Putin.

    2001

    The U.S. announced it would unilaterally withdraw from the 1972 AMB Treaty, in order to develop strategic missile defense, a “preemptive counterforce capability against Russia and China.

    9/11: Putin is the first foreign leader to contact George W. Bush, offers sympathy & support; provided important intelligence and logistical network support for the invasion of Afghanistan.

    2004

    Color Revolutions

    The U.S. promoted successful coups around Russia’s periphery:  Ukraine & Georgia. Orange Revolution in Ukraine:  popular demands for democratic reforms and tackling corruption were hijacked by international NGOs (NED, Freedom House, USAID); “an American creation, a sophisticated and brilliantly conceived exercise in western branding and mass marketing…” a “postmodern coup d’état…CIA-sponsored third world uprising of cold war days adapted to post-Soviet conditions.”

    “Single Economic Space”

    Proposal by Russia to include Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan; denounced in the West as an expression of “imperial ambitions” that had to be resisted.

    2005

    Common Spaces Agreement

    Committed both Russia and EU to preventing new dividing lines; regional cooperation.

    2007

    Munich Security Conference

    Putin summarizes Russia’s concerns about “one centre of authority, one centre of Force, one centre of decision-making…that NATO has put its frontline forces on our borders…against whom is this expansion intended?”

    Condoleezza Rice

    Mocked Russia’s concerns about the U.S. placing 10 interceptive missiles in Eastern Europe:  “purely ludicrous, and everybody knows it.”  Within a few years, the number had risen to several hundred.

    2008

    Moscow proposed new pan-European security architecture; opposed by West as feared it would weaken NATO.

    NATO Bucharest Summit

    “We agreed today that these countries [Ukraine and Georgia] will become members of NATO.” A Gallup poll taken in Ukraine at the time revealed that 46% valued closer ties to Russia, while only 10% favored closer ties with the U.S. over Russia.

    Ambassador William Burns

    “Not only does Russia perceive encirclement, and efforts to undermine Russia’s Influence in the region, but it also fears unpredictable and uncontrolled consequences Which would seriously affect Russian security interests…Russia is particularly worried  that the strong divisions in Ukraine over NATO membership, with much of the ethnic-Russian community against membership, could lead to a major split, involving violence or at worst, civil war.  In that eventuality, Russia would have to decide whether to intervene; a decision Russia does not want to have to face.”

    “Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all redlines for the Russian elite (not just Putin)…I have yet to find anyone who views Ukraine in NATO as anything other than a direct challenge to Russian interests…Today’s Russia will respond.”

    British Ambassador Roderic Lyne

    “It was stupid on every level. If you want to start a war with Russia, that’s the best way of doing it.” 

    Fiona Hill

    She warned Bush that “bring Ukraine and Georgia closer to NATO as a provocative move that would likely provoke pre-emptive Russian military action. But ultimately, our warnings weren’t heeded.”

    Angela Merkel

    Russia would view this as a “declaration of war.”

    2010

    Moscow proposes EU-Russia Free Trade Zone “to facilitate a Greater Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok.”  Dismissed as sinister plot to divide the West.

    President Yanukovich approved a bill that cemented Ukraine’s neutrality:  “intention of becoming a permanently neutral state that does not participate in military blocs.”

    2013 

    The EU pressured Ukraine to drop its neutral stance and offered the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area instead; effectively an ultimatum to choose either the West or Russia.   Russia countered with trilateral EU-Uraine-Russia agreement which the EU rejected out of hand, “the times for limited sovereignty are over in Europe.”

    Hillary Clinton

    On the Eurasian Economic Union:  “We are trying to figure out effective ways to slow down or prevent it.”

    2014

    National Endowment for Democracy (NED)

    “Ukraine is the biggest prize…Putin may find himself on the losing end not just in the near abroad but within Russia itself.”

    Coup

    Victoria Nuland:  “the U.S. had invested almost $5 billion since 1991 to assist Ukraine in achieving ‘the future it deserves.’”  Nuland caught deciding who should be in the new Ukrainian government and who should be kept out, at a time when Yanukovich was still the lawful president of Ukraine.”

    “The most overt coup d’état in history”

    “In 2014 the United States backed an uprising–in its final stages a violent uprising–against the legitimately elected Ukrainian government of Viktor Yanukovych, which was pro-Russian.”

    Crimea

    Vladimir Putin: “They cheated us again and again, made decisions behind our back, presenting us with completed facts.  That’s the way it was with the expansion of NATO, in the east, with the deployment of military infrastructure at our borders.  They always told us the same thing: ‘Well, this doesn’t involve you.’”

    Vladimir Putin speech

    “After the revolution, the Bolsheviks, for a number of reasons–may God judge them– added large sections of the historical South of Russia to the Republic of Ukraine. This was done with no consideration for the ethnic makeup of the population, and today these areas form the southeast of Ukraine.  Then, in 1954, a decision was made to transfer the Crimean region to Ukraine, along with Sevastopol, despite the fact that it was a city of union subordination.  This was the personal initiative of the Communist Party head Nikita Khrushchev.

    Henry Kissinger

    “…if Ukraine is to survive and thrive, it must not be either side’s outpost against the other-it should function as a bridge between them…any attempt by one wing of Ukraine to dominate the other–as has often been the pattern–would lead eventually to civil war or break up.”

    “Washington’s planned seizure of Russia’s historic, legitimate warm-water naval base in Crimea failed.”

    Washington’s reference to the sacred principle of territorial integrity in accordance with international law was unconvincing as the West’s rules-based international order had introduced the right to self-determination as a competing principle to territorial integrity.  It was therefore problematic to make a convincing legal case for why the secession of Crimea was different from the secession of Kosovo.

    Approximately 75% of Ukraine’s naval personnel defected to Russia or quit the Ukrainian navy.

    Stephen Walt

    “The real question, however, is why Obama and his advisors thought the United States and the European Union could help engineer the ouster of a democratically elected and pro-Russian leader in Ukraine and expect Vladimir Putin to go along with it.”

    In accordance with the rules-based international order, NATO countries refer to liberal democratic norms to exempt themselves from constraints imposed by international law.

    2015 

    Minsk-2 Agreement

    Ukraine, Donbass, Germany, France, Russia agreed to pursue diplomatic reform for Donbass autonomy; never pursued.  Victoria Nuland described Angela Merkel as “defeatist,” John McCain referred to it as “Moscow Bullshit.”

    Mikhail Gorbachev

    “NATO’s eastward expansion has destroyed the European security architecture as it was defined in the Helsinki Final Act in 1975.  The eastern expansion was a 180-degree reversal, a departure from the decision of the Paris Charter in 1990 taken together by al the European states to put the Cold War behind us for good.  Russian proposals, like the one by former President Dmitri Medvedev that we should sit down together to work on a new security architecture, were arrogantly ignored by the West.  We are now seeing the results.”

    2019

    The U.S. unilaterally withdraws from the INF Treaty

    Russia demanded that the U.S. not place missiles in Ukraine as they had done in  Poland and Romania.

    2021

    The UK signed a naval agreement with Ukraine.

    NATO pushed the prospect of membership for Ukraine

    “We reiterate the decision made at the 2008 Bucharest Summit that Ukraine will become a member of the Alliance.”

    Russia sent the U.S. a draft treaty outlining the conditions to restore security and stability in Europe.  President Biden responded “I don’t accept anyone’s red line.”

    2022

    Vladimir Putin

    “Listen attentively to what I am saying.  It is written into Ukraine’s doctrines that it wants to take Crimea back, by force if necessary.  This is not what Ukrainian officials say in public.  This is written in their documents…Imagine that Ukraine is a NATO country and starts these military operations.  What are we supposed to do?  Fight against the NATO bloc?  Has anyone given at least some thought to this? Apparently not.”

    Ambassador Jack Matlock

    “The war might have been prevented–probably would have been prevented–if Ukraine had been willing to abide by the Minsk Agreement, recognize the Donbass as an autonomous entity within Ukraine, avoid NATO military advisors, and pledge not to enter NATO.”

    John Mearsheimer

    “The United States and its European allies share most of the responsibility for the crisis.  The taproot of the trouble is NATO enlargement.”

    President Biden

    “This was never about genuine security concerns on their part.  It was always about naked aggression, about Putin’s desire for empire  by any means necessary–by bullying Russia’s neighbors through coercion and corruption, by changing  borders by force, and, ultimately, by choosing a war without a cause.”

    Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg:

    “Weapons are the way to peace.”

    Through Turkish intermediation, Russia and Ukraine reach an agreement. “Russia would withdraw to its position on February 23, when it controlled part of the Donbas region and all of Crimea, and in exchange, Ukraine would promise not to seek NATO membership and instead receive security guarantees from a number of countries.”

    Boris Johnson came to Kiev with two messages:  “The first is that Putin is a war criminal, he should be pressured , not negotiated with.  And the second is that even if Ukraine is ready to sign some agreements on guarantees with Putin, they [the UK and the U.S.] are not.

    “The war in Ukraine can end only with Valdimir Putin’s defeat.”  President Zelensky invoked a degree making it illegal to negotiate with Putin.  Any political settlement would require the removal of Putin from power.

    2023

    Victoria Nuland:

    “I am, and I think the Administration is, very gratified to know that Nord Stream 2 is now, as you like, to say, a hunk of metal at the bottom of the sea.”

    The U.S.–with the cooperation of Norway–had attacked the gas pipelines.

    Subscribe to New Notes from a Commonplace Book here

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/14/2024 – 16:50

  • US Signs $23 Billion F-16 Deal With Turkey
    US Signs $23 Billion F-16 Deal With Turkey

    Via The Libertarian Institute

    The US has inked a $23 billion deal with Turkey for 40 F-16 warplanes. Washington promised to sell dozens of the advanced fighter jets to Ankara and upgrade scores of Turkish F-16s in exchange for Turkey approving Sweden’s NATO membership. 

    The AFP reported the deal was signed on Thursday. “The contract was signed and delegations from both sides are negotiating the details,” Turkish defense ministry sources told the outlet.

    Getty Images

    The State Department said last week that it had taken significant steps towards finalizing the deal, which was proof of the deep military relationship between Washington and Ankara. 

    “Just the latest example of US enduring commitment to security partnership with Turkey,” it said in a statement on US government social media accounts.

    In January, President Biden sent a letter to Congress pushing Capitol Hill to approve the sale of F-16s to Turkey. Washington had conditioned the deal on Ankara lifting its months-long obstruction of Stockholm joining NATO. 

    Since joining the bloc in March, Sweden has taken an aggressive approach towards Russia. Stockholm has approved Kiev using its weapons against targets inside Russia, and top Swedish officials have suggested Stockholm could join NATO’s nuclear weapons sharing program. 

    Turkey was initially a partner in the F-35 project and was set to receive the latest American warplane. However, during the Trump administration, Ankara purchased an advanced missile defense system from Moscow, leading Washington to cut Turkey from the program. 

    When the sale was first approved to advance forward earlier this year, US ambassador to Turkey Jeff Flake described the sale as a “great step forward.” He said, “Turkiye’s F-16 fleet is critical to NATO’s strength, ensuring future interoperability among Allies.”

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/14/2024 – 16:25

  • US Nuclear Attack Sub, Canadian Warship In Cuba Just Behind Russian Naval Group
    US Nuclear Attack Sub, Canadian Warship In Cuba Just Behind Russian Naval Group

    A US Navy fast-attack submarine has surfaced and arrived in Cuba’s Guantanamo Bay, just on the heels of a group of Russian warships having arrived in Havana merely the day prior. The American nuclear-powered USS Helena arrived at the US base on Thursday, while a Canadian navy patrol ship has followed on Friday.

    The Pentagon’s US Southern Command in a statement called it “a routine port visit…while conducting its global maritime security and national defense mission.” While both Moscow and Washington have tried to downplay these mirror deployments to Cuban waters, the whole spectacle is reminiscent of the Cold War, given it seems clear the US is using the nuclear submarine to signal strongly in response to Russia.

    Illustrative: Navy file image

    All of this is taking place a mere 100 miles off the Florida coast. The Admiral Gorshkov frigate and the nuclear-powered submarine Kazan just before arriving in Cuba had earlier this week conducted “high-precision missile weapons” training in the Atlantic Ocean.

    In an effort to calm tensions that are the result of Russian warships being in the Caribbean, Cuba’s Foreign Ministry assured the world that “None of the vessels carries nuclear weapons,” in reference to the Russian vessels. Cuba further said the official Russian Navy visit to the port “does not represent any threat to the region.”

    Military reports have indicted that the Helena has enough food and supplies on board to remain on station for up to an estimated three months.

    Despite current efforts to downplay these maneuvers, Newsweek has pointed out that “It is unusual for the United States and other countries to disclose the precise locations of their submarines, but surfacing a stealth boat sends an unmissable military signal to potential adversaries.”

    “The vessel’s location and transit were previously planned,” the Pentagon has said, but at the same time US defense officials have told various media publications that US and Canadian forces had been “actively monitoring” the Russian naval group’s movements across the Atlantic and as it came near the US East coast.

    “We’re always, constantly going to monitor any foreign vessels operating near U.S. territorial waters,” a Pentagon press spokesperson said this week. “We of course take it seriously, but these exercises don’t pose a threat to the United States.”

    Russian state media has declared that the Russian sub and accompanying vessels docking in Cuba gives the US a dose of its own medicine.

    “I think we can definitely see this as a direct Russian reply to the general US declaration of conducting what it calls ‘Freedom of navigation’ exercises. Although, as far as we know, no one has challenged the freedom of navigation,”  geopolitical analyst and American citizen Mark Sleboda, who lives in Russia, has told Sputnik.

    Source: Newsweek/OSM-Boundaries

    President Biden has meanwhile at the Group of Seven summit in Italy sought to signal a message of resolve and commitment on Ukraine, with the White House saying that Putin “just cannot wait us out” and that Washington support to Kiev is not going to wane.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/14/2024 – 15:20

  • Silver Demand In The Solar Sector Could Squeeze Silver Supply In The Future
    Silver Demand In The Solar Sector Could Squeeze Silver Supply In The Future

    Authored by Mike Maharrey via Money Metals,

    Silver use by the solar energy sector is one of the primary factors driving the overall demand for silver, and there is reason to believe photovoltaic silver off-take will continue to increase in the years ahead.

    Not only is the demand for silver panels growing, but the amount of silver used in each panel is also increasing.

    Industrial demand for silver set a record of 654.4 million ounces in 2023 and it is expected to hit new highs this year. According to the Silver Institute, ongoing structural gains from green economy applications underpinned this surge in silver demand.

    “Higher than expected photovoltaic (PV) capacity additions and faster adoption of new-generation solar cells raised global electrical & electronics demand by a substantial 20 percent. At the same time, other green-related applications, including power grid construction and automotive electrification, also contributed to the gains.”

    Silver is the best conductor of electricity of all metals at room temperature. That makes it a vital input in the production of solar panels.  

    To manufacture a solar panel, silver is formed into a paste that is applied to the front and back of silicon photovoltaic cells. The front side collects the electrons generated when sunlight strikes the cell, while the back side helps to complete the electrical circuit.

    Each solar panel uses approximately 20 grams (0.643 ounces) of silver. While this is a relatively small amount, the total adds up quickly when you consider the number of panels produced each year. The solar industry used approximately 100 million ounces of silver in 2023, accounting for about 14 percent of total silver demand.

    Several years ago, analysts assumed that the amount of silver used in solar panels would decline over time with the development of new technologies. However, a Saxo Bank report in 2020 disputed this claim, saying, “Potential substitute metals cannot match silver in terms of energy output per solar panel.”

    “Further, due to technical hurdles, non-silver PVs tend to be less reliable and have shorter lifespans, presenting serious issues for their widespread commercial development.”

    It turns out, this analysis was correct. Newer more efficient technologies use 20 to 120 percent more silver.

    In 2020, Passivated Emitter and Rear Cell (PERC) technology was the standard, accounting for virtually the entire solar market. A PERC solar panel uses about 10 milligrams of silver per watt.

    By 2022, PERC technology was being replaced by Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact (TOPCon) cells. This advanced technology enhances the efficiency of solar cells by improving the way they handle electron flow. A TOPCon cell is cheaper to produce but uses more silver than a PERC solar panel. It contains about 13 milligrams of silver per watt.

    Now, heterojunction (HJT) technology is beginning to dominate the solar market. HJT cells are even more efficient than TOPCon technology and can capture energy on both sides of the panel. They are also more environmentally friendly. But they use even more silver – about 22 milligrams per watt. HJT cells only made up a small part of the market in 2023, but demand for these more efficient panels is expected to grow.

    With demand for solar power increasing along with the amount of silver used in each panel, analysts believe that solar panel production will consume increasingly large amounts of silver in the future. 

    According to a research paper by scientists at the University of New South Wales, solar manufacturers will likely require over 20 percent of the current annual silver supply by 2027.

    By 2050, solar panel production will use approximately 85–98 percent of the current global silver reserves.

    The green energy sector is also essentially recession-proof because it is being driven, incentivized, and in some cases directly funded by governments around the world.

    The silver market is already running significant deficits with silver demand outstripping supply. The structural deficit in 2023 came in at 184.3 million ounces.

    While there is still a large silver stock available, market deficits will eventually deplete the reserve of available metal. We could see a significant supply squeeze in the coming years.

    Silver is not currently priced for these supply and demand dynamics.

    It’s also important to remember that while industrial demand is an important factor driving the price, silver is still fundamentally a monetary metal. As such, the price tends to track with gold over time. If you are bullish on gold, you should be even more bullish on silver. In fact, silver tends to outperform gold in a gold bull market.

    Given the supply and demand dynamics, the economic environment, and a historically wide gold-silver ratio that indicates silver is underpriced, there are plenty of reasons to think silver will shine in the future.

    Mike Maharrey is a journalist and market analyst for MoneyMetals.com with over a decade of experience in precious metals. He holds a BS in accounting from the University of Kentucky and a BA in journalism from the University of South Florida.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/14/2024 – 14:55

  • "Alt-Protein": Pentagon Contractor Wants To Feed US Troops Lab-Grown Meat To "Reduce CO2 Footprint"
    “Alt-Protein”: Pentagon Contractor Wants To Feed US Troops Lab-Grown Meat To “Reduce CO2 Footprint”

    A Pentagon contractor that has received more than $500 million from the Defense Department wants to produce lab-grown meat for America’s soldiers in order to “reduce the CO2 footprint” at Defense Department outposts, the Free Beacon reports.

    BioMADE, a public-private DoD contractor, “is a Manufacturing Innovation Institute (MII) sponsored by the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) with a vision to build a sustainable, domestic, end-to-end bioindustrial manufacturing ecosystem,” according to a project overview posted last month. It is seeking proposals to develop “innovations in food production that reduce the CO2 footprint of food production at … DoD operational environments,” which include “novel cell culture methods suitable for the production of cultivated meat/protein,” aka lab grown meat.

    This type of meat is grown in a lab from animal cells with the aid of other chemicals, and has emerged as a flashpoint in debates about the efficacy and morality of manufacturing meat products without slaughtering animals.

    BioMADE—which earlier this year received a $450 million infusion of taxpayer cash—maintains that lab-grown food products will reduce the Pentagon’s carbon footprint, a priority for the American military as it pursues a Biden administration-mandate to address climate change and other cultural issues that critics describe as “woke.” -Free Beacon

    “Innovations in food production that reduce the CO2 footprint of food production at and/or transport to DoD operational environments are solicited,” the company said in an informational document. “These could include, but are not limited to, production of nutrient-dense military rations via fermentation processes, utilizing one carbon molecule (C1) feedstocks for food production, and novel cell culture methods suitable for the production of cultivated meat/protein.”

    The company is also soliciting proposals for “processes that convert greenhouse gasses,” as well as “projects that develop bioproducts useful in mitigating the negative environmental impacts either regionally or globally,” including “bioproducts that can be used to prevent or slow coastal erosion

    The project has fallen under heavy scrutiny from critics, who say that US troops should not be used as guinea pigs for experimental food.

    “Taxpayer dollars should not be used to fund the lab-grown meat sector,” said Jack Hubbard, executive director at the Center for the Environment and Welfare, a consumer group that analyzes emerging markets such as bioengineered meat. “Our troops deserve better than to be served lab-grown meat, produced in bioreactors with immortalized cells and chemicals.”

    “Unfortunately, this effort is being driven by an agenda that is political and anti-farmer. Our soldiers should never be used as guinea pigs,” he continued.

    The Pentagon and its outside partners, as part of its push to fund “alt-protein projects,” made up to $2 million available for such projects, according to the publication Alt-Meat.

    Supporters of these efforts say U.S. national security hinges on addressing global change and pursuing new technologies that enable products like lab grown meat. -Free Beacon

    According to former DoD official Matt Spence in 2021, “One of the most immediate, politically feasible, and high-impact ways to do this [address climate change] is for the U.S. government to invest in and accelerate alternative ways to produce meat.”

    That said, UC Davis published a report last year suggesting that “lab-grown meat’s carbon footprint [is] potentially worse than retail beef.”

    “If companies are having to purify growth media to pharmaceutical levels, it uses more resources, which then increases global warming potential,” said lead author, Derrick Risner of the college’s Department of Food Science and Technology. “If this product continues to be produced using the ‘pharma’ approach, it’s going to be worse for the environment and more expensive than conventional beef production.”

    “Our findings suggest that cultured meat is not inherently better for the environment than conventional beef. It’s not a panacea,” said corresponding author Edward Spang, an associate professor in the Department of Food Science and Technology. “It’s possible we could reduce its environmental impact in the future, but it will require significant technical advancement to simultaneously increase the performance and decrease the cost of the cell culture media.“

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/14/2024 – 14:35

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Jun 13

Today’s News 13th June 2024

  • FOMC Holds Rates As Expected, Dot-Plot Shifts More Hawkish In 2024
    FOMC Holds Rates As Expected, Dot-Plot Shifts More Hawkish In 2024

    Since the last FOMC statement (on May 1st), stocks and bonds have outperformed (with the former at record highs), gold is flat while the dollar is down modestly. Amid all that, oil is down significantly…

    Source: Bloomberg

    These market moves have been prompted by a ‘bad news is good news’ regime as US macro data has serially disappointed…

    Source: Bloomberg

    …adding significantly to hopes for a more dovish Fed (2 cuts priced in for 2024 and an additional 92bps of cuts in 2025)…

    Source: Bloomberg

    The good news is that while growth ‘surprises’ have slipped lower, inflation ‘surprises’ have also drifted lower after four months of stagflationary signals worrying markets…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Today we also get to see a new DotPlot, which is expected to show and adjustment down from three to two cuts for 2024 (with a risk to an adjustment down to just one cut)…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Of course, as a reminder, the global backdrop for today’s Fed decision is that big US trading partners, like Canada and the euro area, have cut interest rates even as inflation remains an issue.

    So, What Did The Fed Do?

    The Fed held rates unchanged as expected…

    *FED HOLDS BENCHMARK RATE IN 5.25-5.5% TARGET RANGE

    And changed wording on inflation (from a “lack” of progress):

    *FED: INFLATION MADE MODEST FURTHER PROGRESS IN RECENT MONTHS

    BUT…

    The dot-plot was hawkish, adjust to just one 25bps cut in 2024 (and four 25bps cuts in 2025)

    *FOMC MEDIAN FORECAST SHOWS 25 BPS RATE CUTS IN ’24 VS 75 BPS

    *FOMC MEDIAN FORECAST SHOWS 100 BPS RATE CUTS IN ’25 VS 75 BPS

    There were no dissents today, extending the streak of zero votes against the FOMC policy decision to 16 meetings, the longest period of no dissents since Alan Greenspan’s 17-meeting streak from August 2003 to September 2005 – when Mark Olson dissented.

    Read the full redline below (barely changed):

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/12/2024 – 14:00

  • Elliott Management May Force Southwest To Abandon 'Bags Fly Free' Policy
    Elliott Management May Force Southwest To Abandon ‘Bags Fly Free’ Policy

    With activist hedge fund Elliott Management in the pilot’s seat at Southwest Airlines, the budget airline’s popular “bags fly free” policy is under scrutiny.

    If Paul Singer gets his way, the airline’s popular “bags fly free” policy could end. This policy is a huge value proposition for customers when choosing a carrier to fly across the US. 

    According to Bloomberg… 

    “Elliott appears to have a different view, noting in a website presentation that Southwest has “written off” revenue opportunities implemented across the industry over the past 15 years, including assigned seating, premium products, a bare bones basic economy fare and checked bag fees.” 

    Southwest’s policy clearly stated on its website: “Each Customer is allowed two free checked bags.” 

    Elliott is right to consider scrapping the policy to boost additional revenue for the struggling carrier, which recently withdrew its 2024 fiscal outlook due to delays in Boeing jet deliveries.

    According to the US Transportation Department, in 2023, the airline only collected $73 million in checked bag fees, while American Airlines took in $1.4 billion. Spirit Airlines collected $988 million, and Frontier Group collected about $880 million. 

    Data from IdeaWorks and CarTrawler show that airlines globally collected $33.3 billion in baggage fees last year, up nearly 15% from 2023. 

    President of IdeaWorks, Jay Sorensen said if Southwest were to drop its “bags fly free” policy because of pressure from Elliot, that could trigger an exodus from loyal customers. 

    Sorensen said such a change could be “traumatic” to the airline’s customers, culture, and employees.

    Conor Cunningham, a Melius Research analyst, said the policy is “so ingrained in the culture” that he “can’t imagine that they’d give up on it.” 

    Southwest’s “value proposition and something customers know they are getting when they travel with us,” Cunningham said. 

    Henry Harteveldt, a travel industry analyst and founder of Atmosphere Research Group, said, “I don’t think Southwest can dismiss not charging for bags anymore, not when you have an activist investor sitting on $1.9 billion of your stock.” 

    In markets year-to-date, Southwest shares have broadly underperformed the S&P airline index. 

    “There are going to be decisions that Elliott may force on the airline, with Southwest holding its nose. You cannot ignore that shareholder,” Harteveldt concluded. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/12/2024 – 13:40

  • FOMC Preview: From Three Rate Cuts To Two
    FOMC Preview: From Three Rate Cuts To Two

    Coming just hours after the May CPI print, tomorrow’s – and the month’s – main event is the FOMC decision due at 2pm ET, when the Fed is widely expected to leave rates on hold at 5.25-5.50%, and the statement will likely also largely be reiterated after slight tweaks in the May statement. Attention will fall on the Summary of Economic projections, and more specifically, the Dot Plot, where the number of projected rate cuts in 2024 will be trimmed from 3 to 2. After a string of hot inflation reports in Q1, the Fed has been stressing that the luxury of a strong economy gives the Fed time to be patient before acting, and the hot NFP released (assuming of course that a drop of 625,000 full-time jobs is viewed as “strong”), last week only gives the Fed more time. Therefore, it is likely the 2024 median FFR will be revised up from the 4.6% – or equivalent to 3 rate cuts over the remainder of 2024 – pencilled in at the March meeting.

    Indeed, money markets currently look for between one or two rate cuts this year, with WSJ’s Fed mouthpiece Nick “Nikileaks” Timiraos confirming “they know that we know that they know that we know”, or that “most sell-side economists and other professional Fed watchers now anticipate one or two rate cuts this year in either September or December”. In other words, the ground is set for the dots to tighten, but the question is by how much: one, two or three cuts? It is also worth noting that the May US CPI report will be released on the morning of the FOMC, which will impact expectations of the dot plot going into the rate decision. With FOMC members already in possession of the May CPI report, Powell has previously said that the Fed is allowed and encouraged to update their forecasts until late morning of the meeting, therefore the data will likely be incorporated into the Fed’s decision-making and forecasts. Then, once the rate decision, statement and SEPs are released, attention will turn to Fed Chair Powell’s Press conference at 19:30 BST / 14:30 EDT.

    POLICY: The Fed is widely expected to leave rates on hold at its June meeting with the Fed not yet convinced inflation is returning to target in a sustained manner, despite rate cuts from global peers such as the ECB and BoC last week. Given tweaks to the statement at the last meeting, noting there has been a lack of further progress towards the 2% goal and that risks to the mandate have moved towards better balance, they will unlikely alter the statement much. It will also likely repeat “The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.” Nonetheless, the focus of this meeting will be on the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEPs), or “Dot Plots”.

    FOMC POLICY STATEMENT

    Current conditions: Morgan Stanley look for an important change to the characterization of inflation that is an acknowledgement of improvement in inflation data through April, though still not enough improvement to be convincing.

    Risk to the statement: Since the last FOMC meeting, there has been a single improved inflation print in April. The risk is that FOMC officials have not yet gained enough conviction, and that they pair unchanged inflation language with a more concentrated move in the dot-plot to fewer cuts this year.

    SUMMARY ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS: With the Fed recently stressing that the luxury of a strong economy gives the Fed time to be patient before acting, it is likely the 2024 dot will be revised up, particularly after the May NFP report. WSJ’s Timiraos highlights that “Most sell-side economists and other professional Fed watchers now anticipate one or two rate cuts this year in either September or December”. Money markets are currently pricing in 38bps of rate cuts by year-end (fully priced for one cut, with a c. 50% probability of another 25bp cut), however, this is subject to change with the US CPI to be released on the morning of the FOMC. Which may have some sway on Fed officials’ thinking when entering their dot plots. Powell has previously said FOMC members are encouraged to update their forecasts up until mid/late morning, once the Fed has seen the data.

    The March dot plot was unchanged from December, with the median view looking for three rate cuts in 2024, with rates ending the year at 4.5-4.75% vs the current 5.25-5.50%. Nonetheless, the composition of dot plots was more hawkish, with nine members pencilling in the year-end rate at 4.6%, vs six in the December dot plots, with more dovish dots aligning with the Median. Nonetheless, it would have only taken one of the median dots to pencil in a higher rate to have lifted the median, with 8 on the FOMC pencilling in a rate above the current median. Therefore, that, accompanied by a string of hot inflation reports in 2024, as well as plenty of Fed speak suggesting they can afford to be patient before cutting rates, it is likely the 2024 median dot plot will be revised up. It is likely to pencil in just one or two rate cuts this year, instead of three. Note, the median 2025 dot is currently at 3.9% (vs December’s 3.6%), the 2026 dot is at 3.1% (vs December’s 2.9%), with the longer run rate, or neutral rate, at 2.6% (vs December’s 2.5%). Some on the Fed have suggested it is possible the Neutral Rate has risen from before (Bowman), while others suggest the neutral rate is relatively low (Waller).

    Aside from rate forecasts, the SEP will also show the updated views for Core PCE, PCE, Unemployment and real GDP. FOMC Vice Chair Williams gave his personal expectations, noting he sees inflation at 2.5% this year (vs the Fed March median SEP of 2.6% on Core, 2.4% on headline), before being closer to 2% in 2025 (vs Fed median of 2.2%). He sees 2024 growth between 2.0-2.5% (vs Fed March Median SEP of 2.1%). Williams expects unemployment of 4.0% this year (vs Fed March Median of 4.0%).

    ECONOMY: The prior statement saw a slight language tweak to suggest that risks to achieving its mandate have moved towards better balance (prev. moving into better balance), reflecting some of the concerns about an employment downturn. However, it also added a line that there has been a lack of further progress towards the committee’s 2% inflation goal. Since then, there have been mixed signals from the labor market, with the April NFP and JOLTS coming in soft, while the May NFP was much hotter than expected, although the Household survey was a disaster with full-time jobs plunging and the unemployment rate hitting 4.0%. The Fed has made it clear they are willing to hold rates higher for longer given the strength of the economy, and only in the case of an unexpected weakening of the labor market, or signs that inflation is convincingly returning to target, would they be prepared to lower rates. Meanwhile, after the hot inflation reports in Q1, the April reports were on net softer, and were seen as a welcome sign to the Fed, but still a reminder that the return to target will still be slower than initially expected.

    DOT PLOT: Goldman, along with many on Wall Street, expects the median forecast to show two cuts in 2024 (vs. three in March) to 4.875%, four cuts in 2025 (vs. three in March) to 3.875%, and three cuts in 2026 (unchanged) to 3.125%. Goldman suspects that the Fed leadership would prefer for the median dot to show a two-cut baseline in 2024 in order to retain greater flexibility to cut in Q3 if the inflation data warrant it. But the key risk is that the median could instead show just one cut in 2024, especially if the May core CPI print comes in well above the 0.3% forecast or if more FOMC participants see a 2.8% year-on-year rate of core PCE inflation as too high to justify two rate cuts. Goldman also thinks the median longer-run or neutral rate dot could tick up a touch further. FOMC participants are likely to raise their longer-run dots gradually over time because both market-based approximations of the neutral rate, namely distant forward interest rates, and the econometric models of neutral that the Fed staff tracks suggest that the neutral rate is higher than the current median estimate of 2.56%. Finally, the bank expects that in addition to gradually raising their longer-run neutral rate estimates, FOMC participants will continue to show terminal rate projections that are above their neutral rate estimates on the grounds that non-monetary policy tailwinds are boosting aggregate demand (i.e. Joe Biden’s debt tsunami) and offsetting the impact of higher interest rates on the economy.

    RECENT FED SPEAK: Fed speakers have been mostly singing from the same hymn sheet, still stressing a higher-for-longer
    approach and no rush to cut rates, noting they will be letting the data dictate decisions. Many said that a rate hike is not in the baseline outlook, although some are refusing to rule it out in case inflation were to surprisingly accelerate again. Nonetheless, although after the hot inflation reports in Q1, the April reports have started to bring some optimism that inflation is still easing, albeit at a slower pace than before, perhaps indicating it will take longer for inflation to return to the Fed’s 2% target. Officials have stressed that inflation does not need to return exactly to 2% before they cut rates, but they need to be confident that it is convincingly and sustainably on its way to target, something which they do not have at the moment, and they would need a string of good inflation reports for them to gain that confidence. Some, including Chair Powell, have noted that an unexpected weakening in the labour market could also be a reason to cut rates, even if they did not have the inflation confidence yet, but so far the labour market still shows signs of tightness and is in no way classified as an “unexpected weakening”, particularly after the May jobs report. Powell stated it would take more than “a couple of tenths” to move higher in the unemployment rate for an unexpected weakening.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/12/2024 – 13:35

  • MSNBC's Maddow Says She's Worried Trump Will Put Her In A Concentration Camp
    MSNBC’s Maddow Says She’s Worried Trump Will Put Her In A Concentration Camp

    Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

    MSNBC performative hack Rachel Maddow has declared that she is worried that if Donald Trump becomes the president again he’s going to round her up and throw her in a concentration camp with all her leftist friends.

    Yes, really.

    Maddow teamed up with CNN’s resident mole man and former Brain Stelter acolyte Oliver Darcy for a super best friends ‘we hate Trump’ interview in which she made the comments.

    Darcy told Maddow, “Trump and his allies are openly talking about weaponizing the government to seek revenge against critics in media and politics, with some of his extremist allies even talking about jailing their fellow Americans,” further asking “You’re one of his most notable critics on television. Are you worried that you could be a target?”

    Maddow replied “I’m worried about the country broadly if we put someone in power who is openly avowing that he plans to build camps to hold millions of people, and to ‘root out’ what he’s described in subhuman terms as his ‘enemy from within.’”

    “Again, history is helpful here. He’s not joking when he says this stuff, and we’ve seen what happens when people take power proclaiming that kind of agenda,” Maddow further declared.

    She continued, “I think there’s a little bit of head-in-the-sand complacency that Trump only intends to go after individual people he has already singled out. Do you really think he plans to stop at well-known liberals?”

    “When Trump invokes the Insurrection Act to deploy the U.S. military against civilians on his first day in office, do you think he then rescinds the order on day two?” the paranoid host added.

    “For that matter, what convinces you that these massive camps he’s planning are only for migrants? So, yes, I’m worried about me — but only as much as I’m worried about all of us,” Maddow concluded.

    This is the person who for four years got on TV every day and claimed Trump is secretly a Russian agent.

    She has previously stated that if Trump wins he will try to remain president for life and cancel all future elections:

    These people are completely ideologically captured and sound totally unhinged.

    They’re also psychologically projecting exactly what Democrats are trying to do to Trump on to him.

    *  *  *

    Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/12/2024 – 13:20

  • Finland In First NATO Deployment Parks Jets On Russia's Doorstep
    Finland In First NATO Deployment Parks Jets On Russia’s Doorstep

    NATO’s two newest members – Finland and Sweden – have already seen their militaries quite busy as part of recent joint exercises with the alliance. For the first time this week, another milestone has been achieved as Finland has deployed fighter jets to another NATO country, in a further reversal of the Scandinavian country’s decades-long policy of neutrality.

    Seven F-18 fighter jets have been deployed by Helsinki to a base in southeastern Romania. Reuters said based on military statements that the aircraft will “conduct air shielding missions with Romanian and British jets.” Romania has long been dubbed in Western publications as “Russia’s doorstep”.

    Finnish Air Force, file image

    Finland is hailing this as part of efforts to speed up its military integration within NATO. “I’m sure that during this enhanced air policing air shielding mission our integration into NATO will take a big leap forward,” commander of Finland’s Karelia Air Wing Johan Anttila said this week.

    Finland’s entry into the Western military alliance has in effect doubled the border now directly shared by Russia and NATO countries.

    “This will certainly lead to tension. We can only regret this,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov had earlier commented. “We had excellent relations with Finland. No one threatened anyone, there were no problems or complaints against each other. No one infringed on anyone’s interests, there was mutual respect.”

    And President Putin has previously derided Finland’s entry into NATO as all about joining “the Western club.”

    “Frankly speaking, I don’t understand why they need this. This is an absolutely meaningless step from the point of view of ensuring their own national interests,” Putin said back in March.

    “We didn’t even have troops; we removed all the troops from there, from the Russian-Finnish border,” he said. “However, it is up to them to decide. That’s what they decided. But we didn’t have troops there, now we will.”

    Meanwhile Denmark too is among those Nordic countries calling for increased defense spending and greater coordination on European defense. This has been a persistent talking point over the last months as Ukraine forces are not fairing well on the battlefield, and as Washington funds have dried up.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/12/2024 – 13:00

  • World Economic Forum Says, 'Let Them Eat Fake Meat!'
    World Economic Forum Says, ‘Let Them Eat Fake Meat!’

    Authored by Eric Utter via AmericanThinker.com,

    The globalist elites at the World Economic Forum (WEF) are calling on governments to promote fake meat and other alternative proteins in a coordinated effort to change consumers’ behavior.

    Shocking, I know.

    The authors of a white paper entitled “Creating a Vibrant Food Innovation Ecosystem: How Israel Is Advancing Alternative Proteins Across Sectors,” claim that changing humans’ eating habits will require a global effort with governments and corporations working together.

    Yes, bloated governments and big corporations working together to manipulate and coerce the little people’s behavior is a great idea!

    And perfectly befitting of fascism, or at least a robust oligarchy!

    Fake meat.

    Fake genders.

    Fake news.

    Artificial intelligence.

    I am sick of it all.

    Is anything real anymore?

    Yes, the existential danger this represents to us as humans — and formerly free and sentient beings — is all too real, indeed.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/12/2024 – 12:40

  • "Pelosi SHOULD Take Responsibility!" J6 Capitol Police Chief Says Speaker's Staff Blocked Additional Security
    “Pelosi SHOULD Take Responsibility!” J6 Capitol Police Chief Says Speaker’s Staff Blocked Additional Security

    Former Capitol Police Chief Steven Sund responded to a viral video of former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) admitting that she was responsible for the lack of preparedness on Jan. 6, 2021.

    “Pelosi should take responsibility!” Sund posted on X, adding “She put herself in the security decision process and her Sergeant at Arms denied my requests for support before and during the Jan. 6 chaos. She undermined my law enforcement capabilities.”

    Sund, who was in charge of the Capitol Police during Jan. 6, then asked “Why did they change the law (2US1970) that tied my hands?”

    On Monday, the House Oversight Committee posted footage of Pelosi admitting “I take responsibility” for the lack of security on Jan. 6.

    The video shows Pelosi in an exchange with Chief of Staff Terri McCullough on the evacuation. Pelosi states:

    “We have responsibility, Terri. We did not have any accountability for what was going on there. And we should have. This is ridiculous.

    You’re going to ask me in the middle of the thing when they’ve already breached…that, should we call the Capitol Police? I mean the National Guard?

    Why weren’t the National Guard there to begin with?

    …

    They clearly didn’t know, and I take responsibility for not having them just prepared for more.”

    In February of last year, Sund told journalist Tucker Carlson that Jan. 6 was a “setup” – noting that Pelosi’s staff refused to authorize the deployment of the National Guard at the Capitol despite his pleas, and that federal agencies withheld information and warning signs of potential dangers prior to the riot.

    “It doesn’t seem like people really want to get to the bottom of it,” said Sund, adding “It really doesn’t. And it just gets worse. It gets worse from there.”

    Sund got approval to bring in the National Guard at 2:09 p.m. Before his approval, he alleged that he begged several generals, including General Michael Flynn, to bring the National Guard. The officials told Sund they did “not like the optics of the National Guard” as he allegedly begged for their assistance to intervene in the violence. –Daily Caller

    “This sounds like a set up to me,” Carlson said, adding “I’m sorry, it does.”

    To which Sund replied:

    “It gets better. So I beg and beg and he goes ‘well, I’m gonna walk down the hall and we’ll talk to the Secretary of Defense or whoever he’s gonna talk to. Right then I get a notification, oh, I’m still on the call, we have the shooting of Ashli Babbitt. And I said we have shots firing, I still remember yelling over the phone. We have shots firing on the U.S. Capitol, is that urgent enough for you now?“

    According to Sund, the National Guard didn’t show up until 6 p.m., hours after the fatal shooting of Babbitt. He also claimed that the Pentagon deployed resources to the homes of generals, but not the Capitol.

    Watch:

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    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/12/2024 – 12:20

  • Golf And Investing: Mastering Long And Short Games For Success
    Golf And Investing: Mastering Long And Short Games For Success

    Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

    Let’s play a hole of golf to appreciate how two distinct aspects of golf provide valuable lessons for investors.

    You tee off with a driver on a 450-yard par four hole. Your drive is perfect. Not only does the ball land in the middle of the fairway, but you only have 200 yards remaining to the pin. Next, you pull out an iron, hit a beautiful shot, and the ball bounces onto the putting green. With only 40 feet between the ball and the pin and over 95% of the hole behind you, you think a birdie is possible, and in the worst case, you can get a par.

    Your birdie putt misses by 10 feet. You come up just short on the next putt, and your confidence turns to angst. Finally, the third putt rattles into the cup, scoring a disappointing bogey.

    Your long and straight 200-yard drive counts precisely as the 3-foot short putt you missed for par. Similarly, an investment idea backed by a well-thought-out macro thesis is only as good as adequately navigating the many short-term factors that can threaten investment performance.  

    Investing’s Long Game

    The long game involves forming expectations of economic growth and how revenues and earnings for sectors and industries may change with the economy as it cycles through your big-picture thesis. More simply, the long game is investing based on a macroeconomic outlook.

    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Macroeconomic analysis studies the behavior and performance of a country’s economy and its interaction with the global economy. It focuses on broad aggregate variables, including existing economic trends, business cycles, productivity, demographics, geopolitics, governments/central banks, credit, and technological change. 

    An increasingly important part of macroeconomic analysis is assessing how fiscal and monetary policies might affect economic growth and price trends.

    As we have recently witnessed, fiscal spending can have a massive impact on economic activity and inflation. However, as we may find out, it can also be a drag on economic activity in future years. Similarly, a central bank’s monetary policy, including how it manages interest rates and asset holdings, often dictates liquidity and financial conditions, significantly influencing asset markets and the economy.

    International trade and finance, including geopolitics, can play noteworthy roles in macroeconomic analysis. This incorporates trade balances and exchange rates, which are predicated on interest rates and inflation. Other factors include competitiveness, foreign relationships, and foreign investor cash flows.

    While longer-term views on the factors we note are critically important, we must also appreciate shorter periods in which our long-term thesis may seem out of favor. Importantly, we must assess whether aberrations to longer trends are short-term or new trends being established.

    Similar to golf, an excellent long investing game is crucial to understanding the economic path that directly feeds corporate earnings and consumer and government spending behaviors. Think of the long game as a road map, and your goal is to get from point A to point B. Therefore, assessing the most efficient route is your paramount task.

    Investing’s Short Game

    As we now discuss, an investor’s short game is equally important. These are the inevitable traffic jams, accidents, and weather conditions that will force you to stray from the long game.

    Investing’s short game includes market conditions, narratives, personal biases, behavioral traits, liquidity, and other factors that briefly influence asset prices away from longer-term trends.

    Even if you have an outstanding macroeconomic outlook, ignoring the short game, like being a lousy putter in golf, virtually ensures a bogey or worse on your investment performance.  

    Biases and Behaviors

    We have written numerous articles on our inherent biases and behavioral traits. For example, our latest on the topic, Behavioral Traits That Are Killing Your Portfolio Returns, reviews five traits that often hurt investors’ performance. We share a summary below, along with a bit of advice.

    Confirmation Bias: favoring information that affirms your beliefs. Therefore, read investment advice that goes against your views and may be uncomfortable. It will strengthen your convictions or help you appreciate where your thesis may prove wrong.

    Gamblers Fallacy: believing that future outcomes will follow prior outcomes. Today’s hot assets are often laggards tomorrow. While tracking and investing in today’s popular stocks is worthy, keep an open mind that some other stock or asset will likely be tomorrow’s winner.

    Herd Bias: doing what everyone else is doing. The thought process is rooted in the belief that if “everyone else” is doing something, I must do it to be accepted. As we wrote in Behavioral Traits:

    Investors generate the most profits in the long term by moving against the “herd.” Unfortunately, most individuals have difficulty knowing when to “bet” against the stampede.

    Trading with the “herd” can be profitable at times. However, we must understand the inherent flaws in group logic and always appreciate the contrarian opinion.

    The table below provides a few more examples.

    Technical Analysis

    Technical analysis is one of the best clubs in our short-game bag. While it can be inconsistent, as with every other forecasting model, it is the best tool for quantifying investors’ collective behaviors. Historical price and volume data provide a critical context for various price levels likely to motivate buyers and sellers.

    Technical analysis helps detect trend changes. Like reading a putt, technical analysis can help us grasp the risks and rewards a market offers. Furthermore, it can provide price levels with which to buy or sell. In turn, limits allow us to separate our trading actions from our behavioral traits.

    Liquidity Drivers/Fed

    Financial market liquidity is impossible to quantify, even though investors throw the word around like it’s a known commodity. Liquidity refers to the funds available for investors to invest. When liquidity is plentiful, investors tend to take more risk. Conversely, when liquidity is lacking, investors are often risk-averse.

    While liquidity is often considered part and parcel with actual investible dollars available, it’s more a function of investors’ cumulative actions. For instance, the Fed supplied the market with ample liquidity in late 2008, but a meaningful fear of significant bank failures crippled many investors. Sellers were plentiful, and buyers were hard to find. Liquidity was poor. The result was a sharp drawdown in equity prices with high volatility.

    The Fed supplies monetary liquidity to the banking system through interest rate policy and its balance sheet. Furthermore, as their role seemingly becomes more dominant with time, their actions become more impactful to markets. Consequently, as we see today, the stock market rallies as prospects of the Fed providing more liquidity via lower interest rates.

    Domestic and Global Events

    War, weather events, terrorism, political instability, and other local or global events can move markets. Quite often, event-driven trends are short-lived. During event-related volatile periods, investors should try to remain cool and calm. It’s easy to sell into a fear-laced narrative. It’s much harder to buy in such an environment. To quote Warren Buffett:

    Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy only when others are fearful.

     

    Summary

    A well-thought-out long-game thesis can stay intact for long periods with slight adjustments when needed. Like a long and straight drive in golf, when your macroeconomic thesis proves correct, a good portion of your investing job is done.

    But, like golf, letting your irrational behaviors control your investment acumen, not appreciating that markets are sometimes foolish, or misdiagnosing what the Fed is doing can devastate shorter- and longer-term results.

    Do not forget the two-foot putt counts the same as a daunting drive off the tee box.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/12/2024 – 12:00

  • Did The Defense Make Jail More Likely For Hunter Under The Sentencing Guidelines?
    Did The Defense Make Jail More Likely For Hunter Under The Sentencing Guidelines?

    Authored by Jonathan Turley,

    For months, I have been expressing disbelief that Hunter Biden and his defense team were going to take the gun case to trial. Even on the eve of the trial, I thought that the defense might snap into sanity and plead out the case. The reason was simple. A guilty plea would have materially improved the chances that Hunter could get probation and avoid jail by accepting responsibility. Conversely, a trial in a case with overwhelming evidence of guilt would make it less likely that a judge would depart from the guidelines at sentencing. Nevertheless, Hunter went forward with a nullification strategy and, in so doing, it may have nullified his best chance to reduce the risk of jail time.

    After the verdict, I have been stating that jail time is a real possibility in this case despite the fact that this is a first offender. Frankly, I do not see any real need for incarceration in this type of case and many judges would be likely tempted to grant “downward departures” in sentencing or disregard any recommended prison sentence.

    It is also important to note that, after the Supreme Court’s ruling in United States v. Booker, sentencing guidelines are discretionary. Judge Maryellen Noreika could sentence him to probation in light of his struggle with his addiction and his status as a first offender (as well as the absence of other aggravating factors).

    Yet, while many view this as a relatively minor offense, the sentencing guidelines do not.

    Judges regularly sentence people to prison for these offenses. The sentencing guidelines put the recommendation at 15 to 21 months in prison. Moreover, over 90 percent of those convicted are sentenced to prison time.

    The chances of probation are increased with guilty pleas, which generally allow for a downward departure of two levels for taking responsibility. That may not seem like a lot but it could prove determinative for a judge on a marginal call over the need for incarceration. By pursuing the nullification strategy, Hunter lost that benefit and now would have to belated accept responsibility just before sentencing after putting the court and public through a trial.

    If the defense reviewed Judge Noreika’s past cases, they would have seen that she takes a tough approach on gun cases. In May, she sentenced defendant Zhi Dong to a year in jail for lying about his address on a gun form. Notably, that was twice the recommended sentence of the prosecutors.

    One point of distinction is that Dong purchased 19 pistols and 10 “lower receivers” rather than the single gun purchased by Biden. It is also notable that the prosecutors were only seeking six months of incarceration in that arguably more serious case.

    The defense strategy also makes it more difficult for Special Counsel David Weiss, who has shown remarkable lenience at critical stages of his investigation.  It was Weiss who allowed the most serious tax offenses to lapse under a statute of limitations (despite reportedly having an agreement to extend the period). It was Weiss who sought to give Hunter an obscene sweetheart deal that would have avoided any jail time and given him immunity for all crimes.

    Many remain skeptical of Weiss and his actions in this case. For that reason, the failure to plead guilty puts Weiss in a box. Given the sentencing guidelines of prison time, any recommendations for probation would be read as more favoritism for the president’s son. Weiss may feel compelled to follow the recommendations to show that Hunter is being treated the same as other defendants.

    Given the calculation for the three felonies, the defense had to know that they were increasing the chances of prison time by pursuing a nullification defense. The hope was that Wilmington is Bidentown and no local jury would convict the son of the favorite son of Delaware.

    It didn’t work out that way. The team seemed to overplay its hand with defenses that were so implausible as to be insulting for the jury. They suggested that Hunter might not have checked the box or signed the form during in a brief window where he was not using drugs. The prosecutors demolished those defenses within two days of the trial.

    Accepting responsibility after. a trial does not guarantee a downward departure. For example, in U.S. v. Womack, a defendant sought a departure for accepting responsibility before trial as a drug dealer. However, he still went to trial on other issues and the trial judge refused any departure on the basis of his earlier admissions of guilt. It found that he was still minimizing his responsibility for the underlying crimes. That decision was upheld on appeal.

    Now, Hunter may have painted both the prosecutors and the court into a corner. In a play for a hung jury, Hunter may have hoisted himself on his own petard. Guilt was never in doubt, but his efforts also removed any question of accepting responsibility before he was facing actual sentencing for his offenses.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/12/2024 – 11:20

  • Wall Street Reacts To Today's Dovish CPI Shocker: "Down And Out"
    Wall Street Reacts To Today’s Dovish CPI Shocker: “Down And Out”

    As we expected in our preview calling for “optimism for a low print“, today’s CPI delivered the kind of downside surprise that bond bulls and the Fed have been waiting for, as both headline and core came in a tenth lower than expected, largely driven by a 3.6% drop in gasoline prices – the biggest reason why the headline CPI was flat on the month – and as Bloomberg adds, “the miss looks legit, given the shortfall in the actual indices relative to forecast.” Indeed, at 0.16% the rise in core nearly rose just 0.1% when rounded. Meanwhile, in what may have been the biggest surprise, supercore services ex housing fell by 0.04%, the first negative reading since September 2021!

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The soft CPI print obvious puts two rate cuts in 2024 as the obvious center of policy distribution – with an outside chance for the Fed to keep its 3 cut baseline in today’s dots – and opens the door for the market to price more in 2025.

    Meanwhile, the big delta remains housing: as the BLS noted, the shelter index increased 5.4% over the last year, accounting for over two thirds of the total 12-month increase in the all items less food and energy index. Yet with lagged OER/shelter/rent still hot relative to real-time prices, the core monthly CPI gain undershot the median forecast for the first time since October.

    And here is the punchline: with real-time rent flat to down for the past year, the BLS-tracked OER 5-months lagged, is up 5.6%, and will decline gradually for the next 18 months as it catches down to real-time rents, even as the latter are actively rising, something which Omair Sharif at Inflation Insights agrees with in his morning note titled “Down and Out” : “A 0.2% monthly core CPI reading should be the base case for the balance of the year, especially as it looks more and more like the long-awaited slowdown in shelter costs will hit as soon as the next report.”

    In any case, however one looks at today’s report, the bottom line is clear: the doves have it, and now the ball is in the Fed’s court to decide whether to keep the dots at 3 cuts for 2024 or move to 2, even as the hawkish “1 cut” case has been officially eliminated. Indeed, here is Bloomberg’s Fed Watcher Chris Antsey on this issue: “for any Fed governor or district bank president who had been on the fence about one rate cut or two for 2024, this might have tipped them over. All eyes at 2 p.m. in Washington will be on that median estimate for the year-end policy rate.”

    And to underscore that, here are some of the more notable Wall Street reactions.

    Gregory Faranello, head of rates strategy at AmeriVet Securities:

    “The CPI is a really nice inflation reading. The Fed meeting today should see officials move toward two rate cuts for 2024 and softer CPI readings from here will keep a September cut in play.”

    Omair Sharif at Inflation Insights:

    “A 0.2% monthly core CPI reading should be the base case for the balance of the year, especially as it looks more and more like the long-awaited slowdown in shelter costs will hit as soon as the next report.”

    Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intel chief rates strategist:

    “The knee-jerk reaction in the Treasury market isn’t surprising given the Fed-friendly CPI print, particularly the “low” 0.2% on core CPI. Jay Powell can now say ‘we’re making slow but additional progress on inflation’ at this afternoon’s press conference. Investors have been asking if members of the FOMC might change their summary of economic projection forecasts after the CPI print, since they are submitted prior to the start of the meeting. Today’s report probably doesn’t really shift expectations much. We’ve been thinking November and December cuts as our base base, and this data solidifies that view.”

    Lindsay Rosner of Goldman Sachs Asset Management

    “This was good news but it is one piece of news. June is a no-go. We have felt July the same. Again today is a good print for restrictive rates working to quell inflation, so September is a possibility.”

    Bryce Doty, Sit Investment Associates senior PM:

    “A calm CPI report. This CPI report gives the Fed the flexibility to still cut rates. We still expect the Fed to hold off until after the election though.”

    Ashwin Alankar, head of asset allocation at Janus Henderson Investors:

    “Until greater dis-inflation evidence is seen both in breadth and depth, today’s softness is supportive of a preemptive cut rather than a pivot in Fed policy towards accommodation.”

    Ana Galvao, Bloomberg Economics:

    “The downside surprise in CPI could have an impact on asset prices over the medium term, not just today. Bloomberg Economics’ Macro-Finance model suggests forecasts for two-year Treasury yields will fall by 15 bps through 1Q25.”

    Olu Sonola, head of US econ at Fitch

    “This was unequivocally a good report, a delightful appetizer while we await the main course later on today. The core services print of 0.2% was the lowest since September 2021 and that will definitely boost confidence if that trend continues over the next couple of months. While the door to an interest rate cut in July is effectively shut, the window still looks open for later on this year.”

    Finally, here is a good wrapper from Bloomberg’s econ team:

    “May’s soft core CPI reading should reassure the Fed that inflation is slowing. Disinflation was broad across both goods and services categories.

    “We expect core CPI prints over the summer to proceed at a mostly similar pace. With three more moderate prints in hand by the time of the September FOMC meeting, we think Fed officials will be convinced to start cutting rates then.”

    Source: Bloomberg

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/12/2024 – 11:03

  • Suicide Drone Boat Hits Bulk Carrier Near Yemen
    Suicide Drone Boat Hits Bulk Carrier Near Yemen

    Yemen’s Houthi movement might have expanded its weapon arsenal by attacking a bulk carrier in the Red Sea with a suicide drone boat (the first time in this conflict). This marks a shift from the terror group’s usual anti-ship ballistic missiles and or kamikaze aerial drones. 

    On X, the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said, “The vessel was hit on the stern by a small craft” about 66 nautical miles southwest of Al Hudaydah, Yemen. 

    Bloomberg said the commodity-hauling bulk carrier is called “Tutor.” Ship tracking data shows the vessel switched off its Automatic Identification System late last week after entering the Suez Canal. 

    Maritime security company Diaplous said a suicide drone boat hit Tutor, adding the vessel’s engine compartment was taking on water. 

    There is no confirmation if Houthi rebels carried out the attack. However, the terror group has been on a half-year rampage across major shipping lanes in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, attacking Western-linked vessels with missiles and drones. 

    According to an International Maritime Organization document obtained by the Middle East Eye, Houthi rebels have attacked 28 bulk carriers, tankers, container ships, cargo ships, and crude oil tankers.

    Nine of the vessels were Marshall Island-flagged and three were US-flagged. Others were from Malta, Barbados, Panama, Belize, Greece, Palau, Liberia, Singapore, and Portugal.

    On Monday, new images published on social media showed missile attack damage to the previously owned US bulk carrier “True Confidence” from March 6.

    Source: The Sea In Arabic

    These attacks have snarled global supply chains and sent containerized shipping costs soaring in recent months. 

    Next up is US CENTCOM responding to the incident. They usually do not comment on the specific weapons used and often say “projectile.” This report of the attack should be out this evening or tomorrow morning. 

    Furthermore, this won’t be the last time Houthi rebels use suicide boats against commercial vessels linked to the West in the Red Sea and or the Gulf of Aden. The group has also warned about expanding its threat coverage into the Mediterranian Sea. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/12/2024 – 11:00

  • Biden's Problems Are The Real Threats
    Biden’s Problems Are The Real Threats

    Authored by Newt Gingrich via RealClearPolicy,

    Democratic analysts don’t seem to understand why the all-out legal assault on President Donald Trump isn’t working. It’s because they keep talking among themselves and not with the American people.

    The American people don’t live and work in the New York-Washington political-media-government bubble. If reporters and analysts listened to Americans, as we do at America’s New Majority Project, they would learn how decisive the choice between President Joe Biden or President Trump is. They would also see how difficult, if not impossible, it will be for President Biden to get easily re-elected.

    The propaganda media is trying to focus the election on what it sees as President Trump’s flaws. The Democrats, including the Biden campaign, are trying to focus the election on what they see as the threat President Trump represents.

    But the 2024 election is ultimately going to come down to a simple question: Can the American people afford four more years of Biden’s policies and principles?

    President Trump’s problems all involve his own alleged behavior and activities. Even the totally phony legal attacks remain locked into a Trump-centered issue. No American is hurt by the things President Trump has supposedly done. Indeed, few Americans pay any attention to the outlandish, manipulated legal attacks on President Trump.

    Most Americans see the case against Trump as political lawfare. If anything, they are offended by the left’s assault on the rule of law and the Constitution. This is why the conviction in the so-called hush money trial led to an enormous surge of contributions to Trump’s campaign. Far from running away from President Trump, the American people found themselves running to defend him. They saw him as a champion being persecuted unfairly and took the conviction as a direct warning of what could happen to them.

    By contrast, President Biden’s problems all impact everyday Americans. Bidenflation continues to drive already high prices higher. Child care costs increased 4.1 percent in the last year. Young parents are having to take on third and fourth jobs just to break even on costs. Grocery prices are forcing Americans to make tough decisions about how to feed their families. Young people can’t afford to buy houses – which is more than offsetting any good will Biden might have generated by (illegally) waiving student loan repayments.

    President Biden’s policies are causing millions of Americans real pain.

    Biden’s open border policy allows Venezuelan criminals to go to New York City and murder policemen. Biden’s open border policy allows fentanyl and other drugs to flood our country and poison our communities. When more than 100,000 Americans a year are dying from drug overdoses, it is hard worry about how Trump valued his apartment or paid his attorney.

    The average American can’t afford groceries, gasoline, or the electricity bill thanks to Bidenflation. Democrats want Americans to focus on these legal attacks. But Americans are focused on their own survival in the terrible economy President Biden and Democrats created.

    For the elite establishment Democrats, this is all still about politics. For the American people, it’s about survival.

    Economically, Biden’s destructive policies make life more expensive. Culturally, people are sick of radical dictates which denigrate religious liberty and seek to indoctrinate children against the will of their parents. Finally, as a matter of safety, Americans realize that Biden does not have the knowledge, ability, or wits to defend our nation against our adversaries.

    The 2024 election isn’t about what the establishment media thinks. It’s about America’s survival.

    For more commentary from Newt Gingrich, visit Gingrich360.com. Also, subscribe to the Newt’s World podcast.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/12/2024 – 10:45

  • WTI Falls After Unexpected Crude & Gasoline Inventory Builds; Biggest Imports In 6 Years
    WTI Falls After Unexpected Crude & Gasoline Inventory Builds; Biggest Imports In 6 Years

    Oil prices extended gains this morning following the cooler than expected CPI (supporting rate cuts and potential demand) following API’s reported crude draw overnight.

    “This week’s big recovery has weakened the bears’ hold on the market, although more price action is needed to confirm a bottom,” said Fawad Razaqzada, a market analyst at City Index and Forex.com.

    “But it is possible we could see crude oil prices come under pressure again after the recent recovery. The lower highs suggest the short-term path of least resistance is still downward, until told otherwise by the charts.”

    Expectations were for a modest draw in crude from the official data.

    API

    • Crude -2.4mm

    • Cushing -1.94mm

    • Gasoline -2.55mm

    • Distillates +972k

    DOE

    • Crude +3.73mm

    • Cushing -1.59mm

    • Gasoline +2.57mm

    • Distillates +881k

    The official data flipped the API data and showed a sizable crude inventory build last week (and gasoline build)…

    Source: Bloomberg

    The Biden admin added 339k barrels to the SPR (the lowest addition since early Dec 2023)

    Source: Bloomberg

    US crude production rose by 100k b/d back near record highs, even as the rig count continues to slide…

    Source: Bloomberg

    It looks like they flooded the market with imports – the largest in six years…

    Source: Bloomberg

    WTI tumbled on the surprise builds…

    Along with OPEC+ plans to phase out voluntary output cuts after September, “we think this signals a cautious optimism from the organization when it comes to the trajectory of future supply/demand,” says Rohan Reddy, director of research at Global X in emailed comments.

    “The mid-$70s to low-$90s crude pricing we’ve seen in Brent over the past few quarters seems to be a range that OPEC is comfortable with, as the organization maintains its holding pattern,” he adds.

    Meanwhile, pump prices have fallen to three month lows as crude and gasoline prices have fallen…

    But it’s not helping Biden’s poll numbers…

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/12/2024 – 10:39

  • 8 Suspected Illegal Alien Terrorists Arrested In New York, Philadelphia & LA 
    8 Suspected Illegal Alien Terrorists Arrested In New York, Philadelphia & LA 

    For nearly a quarter-century, Americans have been subjected to mass surveillance via the Patriot Act. Yet, while the government violates the privacy rights of Americans with warrantless surveillance, the safety of the country is being undermined by top left-wing officials flooding the open southern border with millions of illegal aliens, some of which are known terrorists and or terrorist-linked. 

    Fencing along the U.S. border with Mexico in San Ysidro, Calif.Credit…Mark Abramson for The New York Times

    Disastrous open southern border policies pushed by the Biden administration make absolutely no sense in a world that is dangerously fracturing into a multi-polar state of war and conflict. America’s enemies can walk right in, and that’s exactly what’s happening. 

    NBC News reported Tuesday that eight men from Tajikistan with potential ISIS connections out of central Asia were arrested in New York, Philadelphia, and Los Angeles. 

    The FBI’s Joint Terrorism Task Force and US Immigration and Customs Enforcement were tracking the suspects for months after they crossed Biden’s open southern border in the spring of 2023.

    While they have not been charged with a terrorist connection or plot yet, the FBI alerted ICE they should be arrested because of potential ties to ISIS, and they were arrested on immigration charges, two sources say. They are detained and face removal proceedings before an immigration judge, and they could later face terrorism-related charges, two sources say. -NBC 

    One X user made this point, “Why do Americans still have to abide by the patriot act while migrants are free to roam? This is a failed president Biden.” 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    When one tries to rationalize the White House’s decision to allow tens of millions (est.) of illegal aliens into the country, the outcome here is a manufactured crisis that has left the country vulnerable to attack.

    In April, FBI Director Christopher Wray warned lawmakers that there is fear of a “coordinated attack” in major US cities. This warning came weeks after ISIS attacked a concert hall in Moscow, killing 145 people. 

    “Our most immediate concern has been that individuals or small groups will draw twisted inspiration from the events in the Middle East to carry out attacks here at home.

    “But now, increasingly concerning is the potential for a coordinated attack here in the homeland, akin to the ISIS-K attack we saw at the Russia concert hall a couple weeks ago,” Wray told a House Appropriations subcommittee earlier this year.

    Meanwhile, an Iranian intelligence officer is still on the loose, planning to kill Trump-era officials. 

    And in February, we penned this note, “More Red Flags Than Before 9-11”: Ohio Sheriff Warns American People Of Worsening Border Invasion.

    So again, our rights were violated over these past two decades, all in the name of freedom, and now the government has flooded the nation with migrants, some of which are terrorist or terrorist-linked. And of course, if there is another attack, it will only be met with more mass surveillance by the intel community.

    It’s becoming much more apparent what the agenda is at play here. Expand the nanny state one manufactured crisis at a time.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/12/2024 – 10:25

  • Appeals Court Upholds Ban On Student Wearing 'Only Two Genders' Shirt
    Appeals Court Upholds Ban On Student Wearing ‘Only Two Genders’ Shirt

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A U.S. appeals court on June 9 upheld a ban preventing a Massachusetts middle school student from wearing a shirt reading “There are only two genders.”

    Another prohibition by school administrators, this time blocking the same student from wearing the shirt with “only two” covered by tape, on which was written “censored,” is also allowed under court precedent, according to the ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the First Circuit.

    “The question here is not whether the t-shirts should have been barred. The question is who should decide whether to bar them—educators or federal judges. Based on Tinker, the cases applying it, and the specific record here, we cannot say that in this instance the Constitution assigns the sensitive (and potentially consequential) judgment about what would make ‘an environment conducive to learning’ at NMS to us rather than to the educators closest to the scene,” U.S. Circuit Judge David Barron wrote for a unanimous panel of the court.

    In Tinker v. Des Moines Independent Community School District, the U.S. Supreme Court in 1969 ruled that a ban on students wearing armbands in protest against the Vietnam War violated the students’ First Amendment rights.

    U.S. District Judge Indira Talwani cited the ruling when in 2023 she ruled in favor of the administrators at the John T. Nichols Middle School (NMS) and Middleborough School District in Massachusetts against Liam Morrison (L.M.), the boy who wore the “two genders” shirt to school.

    “[The school] permissibly concluded that the shirt invades the rights of others,” Judge Talwani said before quoting Tinker. “Schools can prohibit speech that is in ‘collision with the rights of others to be secure and be let alone.’”

    The NMS dress code states in part that students must not wear pieces of clothing that “state, imply, or depict hate speech or imagery that [targets] groups based on race, ethnicity, gender, sexual orientation, gender identity, religious affiliation, or any other classification.”

    Liam was removed from class after a teacher raised concerns about his shirt. He was ultimately sent home after he declined to remove the shirt, and his father said he would not force the removal.

    When Liam went to school on another day with the shirt partially covered in tape, administrators told him to take it off, and he did.

    Lawyers for Liam argued that the shirts did not impinge on the rights of other students. The shirts “like the Tinker children’s armbands, constitute ‘a silent, passive expression of opinion,’” they wrote in a brief to the appeals court.

    “The school banned L.M.’s t-shirts based on a few subjective complaints that students felt upset, unsafe, or targeted,” they said. “But Tinker bars schools from censuring expression based on the ‘discomfort’ or ‘fear’ that results from exposure to ‘unpopular [viewpoints].’”

    In a related ruling from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit, the court ruled that a school district could not bar speech about “contentious issues” such as “racial customs,” “religious tradition,” or “sexual orientation” without a “particularized reason as to why it anticipates substantial disruption.”

    The First Circuit panel stated on June 10 that even if the shirts did not invade the rights of others, administrators reasonably forecast that they would disrupt learning.

    Administrators said the message on the shirt would “materially disrupt transgender and gender non-conforming students’ ability to focus on learning while in a classroom where the message is being displayed.” The court agreed, because of “the demeaning nature of the message” and how administrators attested to knowing of some students who identify as transgender struggling with suicidal thoughts.

    “In such circumstances, we think it was reasonable for Middleborough to forecast that a message displayed throughout the school day denying the existence of the gender identities of transgender and gender non-conforming students would have a serious negative impact on those students’ ability to concentrate on their classroom work,” wrote Judge Barron, who was joined by U.S. Circuit Judges O. Rogeriee Thompson and Lara Montecalvo.

    Judges Barron, Thompson, and Talwani were appointed by President Barack Obama. Judge Montecalvo was appointed by President Joe Biden.

    David Cortman, vice president of U.S. litigation for the Alliance Defending Freedom, which is representing Liam, told The Epoch Times in an email that “our legal system is built on the truth that the government cannot silence any speaker just because it disapproves of what they say.”

    He said the First Circuit erred in its decision and that the group was reviewing all legal options, including an appeal.

    A lawyer for the school and school district did not return an inquiry.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/12/2024 – 09:35

  • Consumer Prices Hold At Record Highs – Up 20% Since Biden Elected
    Consumer Prices Hold At Record Highs – Up 20% Since Biden Elected

    The headline consumer price index was unchanged MoM in May – the smallest change since July 2022 – just less than the +0.1% MoM expected. On a YoY basis, headline CPI rose 3.3% (less than the 3.4% exp) – but very much stuck in a range well above the 2% target for over year now…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Energy was the biggest drag on the headline CPI MoM…(Gasoline prices tumbled 3.6% in May from April, one key reason why the headline CPI was flat on the month. )

    Source: Bloomberg

    Core CPI rose 0.2% MoM (below the 0.3% exp) pulling the YoY change down to 3.4% (from 3.6% and below the 3.5% exp). That is the lowest Core CPI YoY since April 2021…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Core CPI has not had a down-month since President Biden was elected.

    Core Services inflation slowed notably MoM…

    Source: Bloomberg

    The shelter index increased 0.4 percent in May and was the largest factor in the monthly increase in the index for all items less food and energy.

    • May Shelter inflation 5.41% YoY, down from 5.55% in April and lowest since April 2022

    • May Rent inflation 5.30% YoY, down from 5.44% and lowest since May 2022

    For context on how important housing costs are to US inflation data, the shelter index rose 5.4% over the last year, making up over two thirds of the total 12-month increase in the all items less food and energy index.

    Source: Bloomberg

    It does make one wonder were exactly the BLS is getting their BS OER data from…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The full breakdown…

    Services INflation remains awkwardly stuck above 5% while Goods DEflation is at its weakest since January 2004…

    Source: Bloomberg

    SuperCore CPI fell 0.05% MoM – its first drop since Sept 2021, but that left the YoY level still above 5.0%…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Transportation Services costs tumbled MoM to drag SuperCore lower MoM…

    Source: Bloomberg

    We note that consumer prices have not fallen in a single month since President Biden’s term began (July 2022 and May 2024 was the closest with ‘unchanged’), which leaves overall prices up over 19.5% since Bidenomics was unleashed (compares with +8% during Trump’s term).

    And prices have never been more expensive…

    That is an average of 5.4% per annum (almost triple the 1.9% average per annum rise in price during President Trump’s term).

    Source: Bloomberg

    Since President Biden was elected, food prices at home are up around 21% and food prices away from home are up almost 23%…

    And while the Biden administration will continue to gaslight voters with comments like “inflation is tumbling”… every man, woman, and child who actually buys food knows prices have NEVER been higher…

    Finally, while the ‘flations’ have broadly tracked M2 lower, we note that M2 YoY is now starting to turn back higher once again…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Will the next President and Fed head face a 70s redux?

    Source: Bloomberg

    And is this guaranteed if Powell decides “insurance” cuts are required (for Biden?)

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/12/2024 – 09:28

  • Biden Approves Sending 2nd Patriot System To Ukraine Ahead Of G7
    Biden Approves Sending 2nd Patriot System To Ukraine Ahead Of G7

    “We’re going to continue to drive up costs for the Russian war machine,” White House spokesman John Kirby has said as President Biden departs for meetings with Group of Seven leaders in Italy.

    The Thursday through Saturday meeting will focus in large part on unveiling new sanctions and export controls against Moscow, particularly the expected widening of sanctions on the sale of semiconductor chips for Russia, but also targeting third parties in China that deal with Russia.

    Additionally the US will press allies on a plan to use frozen Russian assets to generate profits for Ukraine’s defense. “We will announce new steps to unlock the value of the immobilized Russian sovereign assets to benefit Ukraine and to help them recover from the destruction that Mr. Putin’s army has caused,” Kirby previewed additionally Tuesday.

    The proposal involves utilizing future interest on nearly $300 billion of frozen Russian central bank funds to back a $50 billion loan to Ukraine, which can be used for arms, defense, infrastructure, and rebuilding.

    During the summit of the world’s wealthiest democracies (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US, and with the EU a “non-enumerated member”), Biden will also meet with Ukraine’s Zelensky, where more US weapons for Kiev will be unveiled, especially the deployment of another Patriot missile system for Ukraine.

    The NY Times details that “The new Patriot system — the second that the United States has sent to Ukraine — will come from Poland, where it has been protecting a rotational force of American troops who will be returning to the United States, officials said.”

    “The system could be deployed to Ukraine’s front lines in the next several days, U.S. officials said, depending on any maintenance or modifications it needs,” the report adds.

    Biden is also expected to seek to assure Zelensky that Washington is staying firmly behind his government for the long haul. However, as the Times also points out, significant political change is looming over Europe amid a general war-weariness and perhaps greater willingness to pursue peaceful settlement with Russia: 

    Now, Europe is bracing for the possibility that former President Donald J. Trump, who has spoken openly of pulling out of NATO, could be back in power by the time the group next meets, in 2025. And several of the leaders present — including Prime Minister Rishi Sunak of Britain and President Emmanuel Macron of France — are facing elections that could redefine Europe.

    Interestingly, the Pentagon has remained reluctant to provide more Patriot batteries, especially ones that would have to be moved from defending US soil, or else batteries currently in vital hotspots.

    “With tensions rising on the Korean Peninsula, moving any Patriot batteries from defending against a possible North Korean attack was also deemed too risky, officials said,” NYT notes. The Israel-Gaza conflict is also a major concern.

    “Pentagon officials did not want to move any batteries from the United States,” the report emphasizes. “There is a Patriot battery at Fort Sill, Okla., for training American and Ukrainian troops, but moving it would take away training, officials said. Other batteries protecting bases and troops in the United States, including in Hawaii, were either deemed too far away or necessary for homeland defense.”

    This shows a greater pragmatism that is apparently on the rise among America’s generals and the defense establishment. Perhaps it’s also the result of the realization that Ukraine cannot ‘win’ under the current circumstances of the ongoing manpower and ammo crisis.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/12/2024 – 09:15

  • Our Apocalyptic 'New Normal': Most Global Conflict Since WWII, Most Billion-Dollar Disasters Ever, & Most Hungry People In History
    Our Apocalyptic ‘New Normal’: Most Global Conflict Since WWII, Most Billion-Dollar Disasters Ever, & Most Hungry People In History

    Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

    Our world is witnessing apocalyptic events so frequently that many of us are starting to become numb to it all.  Major wars are raging all over the globe, children in Africa are literally dropping dead from starvation as hunger spreads like wildfire, and “billion dollar disasters” are hitting us more frequently than we have ever seen before.  But as long as these tragedies are not affecting us directly, most people don’t really care too much.  As the level of worldwide suffering rises, it seems as though hearts are getting colder at the same time. 

    The traumatic events of the past several years have left deep scars, and there are many that prefer to ignore the apocalyptic things that are happening in the world because it is just too much for them to handle emotionally.

    According to a brand new study, the number of armed conflicts in 2023 was the most that we have seen in a single year since the end of World War II…

    More armed conflicts took place worldwide in 2023 than any other year since the end of the Second World War, according to a Norwegian study published Monday.

    Last year saw 59 conflicts of which 28 were in Africa, the the Peace Research Institute of Oslo (PRIO) showed.

    We really are living in a time of “wars and rumors of wars”.

    But since it isn’t our sons and daughters that are being gunned down on the killing fields of eastern Ukraine, most of us in the western world aren’t really moved by all of the bloodshed.

    Every single day, more young lives are being wasted.

    But if you think that things are bad now, just wait until Israel and Hezbollah start lobbing thousands of missiles back and forth, China invades Taiwan, and the Russians and NATO begin directly pummeling one another.

    Meanwhile, global hunger just continues to grow.

    In fact, it is being reported that the number of people facing acute food insecurity last year was the highest ever recorded…

    The number of people threatened by hunger in the world has never been so high. In 2023, 281 million people in 59 countries were facing acute food insecurity, according to the 2024 Global Report on Food Crises, published on Wednesday, April 24, by several international organizations (including UN agencies, the European Union, the US Agency for International Development). This figure is up on 2022 (257 million) in its fifth year running.

    “This Global Report on Food Crises is a roll call of human failings,” warned UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, prefacing the analysis.

    A decade ago, world leaders dreamed of a day when hunger would be eradicated.

    Today, that dream is completely dead.

    Right now, hunger is exploding in areas all over the continent of Africa.

    In Sudan, people are literally eating dirt and leaves just so that they can fill their stomachs with something…

    Time is running out to prevent starvation in Sudan, warns the World Food Program.

    Twenty-five million people in Sudan need humanitarian assistance, 18 million are facing acute food insecurity and 5 million people are at emergency levels approaching famine as the country’s civil war passes the one-year mark.

    Amid so many other crises, the world’s largest hunger crisis is drawing little global attention. In the Al Lait refugee camp, for example, people are eating dirt and boiling leaves, just to have something in their bellies, reports Reuters. Others are eating grass and peanut shells, according to the World Food Program.

    Since it isn’t happening to us, most of us don’t really care.

    But hunger is growing here too.

    According to one recent survey, over one-fourth of the entire U.S. population is now skipping meals due to crazy high food prices…

    More than a quarter of Americans have resorted to skipping meals to avoid paying inflated grocery store prices, according to a new survey.

    According to a study by Qualtrics on behalf of Intuit Credit Karma, 80% of Americans say they have felt a “notable increase” in grocery costs in recent years. More than a quarter of respondents said the increased cost has led them to occasionally skip meals, while about one-third said they spend more than 60% of their monthly income on mandatory expenses such as food, utilities and rent.

    “Food insecurity is a major issue in this country as millions of Americans don’t have enough food to eat or don’t have access to healthy food,” Courtney Alev, a consumer financial advocate at Credit Karma, said in a statement.

    I keep warning my readers that this is just the beginning, and I hope that they are taking me seriously.

    We are also living at a time when major natural disasters are becoming more frequent.

    Last year, our world was hit by more “billion dollar disasters” than ever before…

    The planet was besieged by a record 63 billion-dollar weather disasters in 2023, surpassing the previous record of 57 set in 2020, said insurance broker Gallagher Re in its annual report issued January 17.

    Unfortunately, we may top that number this year.

    So far in 2024, there have already been 11 “billion dollar disasters” in the United States alone…

    A deadly outbreak of tornadoes last month caused $4.7 billion in damages across the Southern, Southeastern and Central U.S., making it one of the costliest weather events of the year so far, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said on Monday.

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said there had been 11 confirmed weather and climate disaster events so far this year with losses exceeding $1 billion, with the total price tag topping $25 billion. There were more than 165 tornadoes during the May 6-9 outbreak, impacting Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia and Florida, officials said.

    We have already experienced so many historic disasters, and hurricane season and the heart of wildfire season are still ahead of us.

    Almost every day, we are seeing things happen that we have never seen before.

    For example, storm chasers in the middle of the country just recovered a piece of hail that was “about the size of a pineapple”…

    Val and Amy Castor, veteran storm chasers with Oklahoma City television station KWTV, discovered a piece of hail more than 7 inches (17.78 centimeters) long Sunday along the side of the road near Vigo Park while they were chasing a major thunderstorm system.

    Val Castor said the stone was about the size of a pineapple.

    “That’s the biggest hail I’ve ever seen, and I’ve been chasing storms for more than 30 years,” Castor said.

    We aren’t supposed to have hail of that size.

    But this is the “new normal” where the old rules simply don’t apply.

    In California, there has been an alarming series of earthquakes during the past couple of weeks…

    First, a magnitude 3.6 earthquake in the Ojai Valley sent weak shaking from Santa Barbara to Los Angeles on May 31. Then came two small quakes under the eastern L.A. neighborhood of El Sereno, the most powerful a 3.4. Finally, a trio of tremors hit the Costa Mesa-Newport Beach border, topping out at a magnitude 3.6 Thursday.

    Having half a dozen earthquakes with a magnitude over 2.5 in a week, hitting three distinct parts of Southern California, all in highly populated areas, is not a common occurrence.

    The “Big One” is coming eventually, but I don’t think it is coming quite yet.

    Hopefully I am not wrong about that.

    Other nations are getting pounded by natural disaster after natural disaster as well.

    Brazil has been getting hit particularly hard.  Nightmarish flooding was making headlines down there for a while, but now wildfires are taking center stage…

    After historic floods recently claimed 172 lives in coastal Brazil, the country now faces a new crisis as fires rage through the Pantanal wetlands. These fires have surged nearly tenfold compared to the same period last year, setting the stage for a potential catastrophe worse than the devastating fires of 2020. With severe to extreme drought conditions expected, the situation is becoming increasingly dire.

    Data from the Brazilian space research agency, National Institute for Space Research (INPE) reveals a staggering 980% jump in fires across the Pantanal wetlands this year through June 5, compared to the same timeframe in 2023.

    Speaking of Brazil, it is in the midst of the worst pandemic of dengue fever that has ever been recorded in that nation…

    Brazil recorded the highest number of dengue cases globally in 2024 according to new data from the World Health Organization (WHO). There are nearly 6.3 million probable, and 3 million confirmed cases in the country.

    The South American country counts 82% of the 7.6 million probable cases of dengue recorded in the entire world by the WHO this year. Sadly, it also accounts for 77% of the 3,680 deaths globally from the virus and 82% of the 16,242 cases of severe dengue reported.

    Thus far, 2024 has seen the most serious dengue outbreak ever recorded in Brazil. According to the Ministry of Health, by the end of May, the number of probable cases was 328% higher than that recorded in the same period last year, which had already seen a record number of dengue diagnoses.

    So many pestilences are causing major problems all over the globe right now.

    In the Democratic Republic of Congo, the number of Mpox cases has surged to an all-time record high, and it is the form of the disease that has a particularly high death rate…

    The ongoing outbreak of clade I mpox in the DRC has already claimed many victims: The DRC reports “multiple provincial outbreaks” occurring between the beginning of 2023 and April 14, 2024, with an estimated total of 19,919 cases and 975 deaths — meaning that about 1 in every 20 patients have died.

    This outbreak is also perhaps the most widespread: “During 2023 and 2024, clade I mpox cases were reported from 25 of 26 provinces and, for the first time, from the capital city of Kinshasa,” the CDC team noted.

    Children are especially vulnerable: According to the report, “two thirds (67%) of suspected cases and more than three quarters (78%) of suspected deaths have occurred in persons aged 15 years [or younger].”

    If you ever catch this form of Mpox, you will remember it for the rest of your life even if you survive, because it will be the worst pain that you have ever experienced.

    On top of everything else, it is being reported that scientists have discovered “giant viruses” in the enormous sheets of ice that cover Greenland…

    The idea of a giant virus lurking on a vast ice sheet might sound like the plot to the latest science fiction blockbuster.

    But it’s become a reality, after researchers discovered giant viruses while exploring the Greenland ice sheet.

    Hopefully none of those “giant viruses” poses a major threat to humanity.

    But without a doubt, there will be more global pandemics in our future.

    In fact, all of the trends that I have discussed in this article are going to continue to intensify.

    Our apocalyptic “new normal” is here.

    We live in a world that is going completely and utterly mad, and you can try to ignore that if you wish, but it is the truth.

    *  *  *

    Michael’s new book entitled “Chaos” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/12/2024 – 08:55

  • Futures Set For New Record High Ahead Of CPI, Fed Double Header
    Futures Set For New Record High Ahead Of CPI, Fed Double Header

    Futures are up modestly after another record close on Wall Street heading into today’s double whammy of CPI, and FOMC Dot Plot update, with Nasdaq leading and small-caps lagging. As of 8:00am, S&P futures are up 0.1% to 5,390 and set to extend the stretch of record highs as traders position for the potential disruption from US inflation data landing just hours ahead of Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday; Nasdaq futures rose 0.2%. Bond yields are flat to down 1bp after a stellar 10Y auction yesterday; the Bloomberg Dollar index rose again after four days of gains. Commodities are higher, led by Energy, despite with metals lagging. Today’s focus will be on the doubleheader of CPI and the Fed (our previews can be found here and here).

    In premarket trading, Mag7 and semis names are mostly positive thanks to Oracle shares surging 8.7% to a new record high after the infrastructure software company announced a cloud infrastructure partnership with Google Cloud, as well as one with Microsoft and OpenAI. Oracle also reported fourth-quarter results that featured better-than-expected Cloud Infrastructure revenue, even as it missed on total revenue and earnings. PetMed shares drop 11% after the online pet pharmacy reported results.

    Investors are preparing for a rare double-whammy of US CPI data and Fed announcements that have the potential to upend markets.

    “Today is a big day in terms of economic data and Fed announcement,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, an analyst at Swissquote Bank. “It could determine the global market mood for the rest of the month, and a good part of summer.”

    While policymakers are widely expected to hold borrowing costs at a two-decade high, there’s less certainty on officials’ quarterly rate projections, also known as the dot plot, where most expect the Fed to revise its dot plot from three rate cuts for the balance of 2024 to two, but a hawkish surprise of just one rate cut can not be excluded (see preview here). In any case, Fed voters already have the CPI print for May and it will feature prominently in their deliberations.

    “If it’s two, I think the market reaction can be quite positive and would support new highs in the S&P 500,” Grace Peters, head of investment strategy for Europe, Middle East and Africa at JPMorgan Private Bank, said on Bloomberg TV.

    Ahead of the Fed, the May consumer price index reading is due at 8:30 a.m. and is supposed to show another modest slowdown in inflation, with Goldman’s trading desk saying that it is optimistic for a low print.  Here is JPM’s core CPI MoM market reaction matrix (more details here).

    • Above 0.4%. The first tail-risk scenario, this outcome is likely achieved by an increase in both Core Goods and Core Services, with Core Goods flipping from deflationary to inflationary MoM. Within Core Services, we would likely see shelter inflation increase. The bond market reaction would likely be a 12-15bps increase as part of a bear flattening. Equities would react negatively to this repricing. Given the acceleration higher in inflation, rate cut bets for 2024 would evaporate and we will see the return of views of a rate hike. This would be exacerbated by any comments from Powell suggesting rates are not restrictive enough.  Probability 5%, SPX falls 1.5% to 2.5%.
    • Between 0.35% – 0.40%. This outcome is likely achieved by a smaller than expected disinflationary impulse from Core Goods with Shelter remaining flat. Bonds react negatively as Sept/Nov rate cut views decrease. With market fixings pricing in ~0.26% for Core MoM, the bond market reaction could be larger than expected with many Equity investors focused on the surveyed number of 0.3%. Probability 15%, SPX falls 1% to 1.25%.
    • Between 0.30% – 0.35%. This scenario has the widest range of outcomes since the low end of the range supports the disinflationary trend and the higher end of the range the stickier inflation argument. Feroli’s forecast for 0.33% would keep the YoY number flat from last month’s print. The biggest drivers are weak disinflation in shelter, increases in vehicle, medical, and communication prices. Given the move in bond yields on Friday (+14.6bps to 4.43%), there is likely a more muted response to a hotter print. Also referencing Friday, it was surprising to see stocks slough off the bond market move with the SPX falling only 11bps instead of 1%+ as we have seen over the last couple years in response to significant and sudden moves in bond yields. Probability 40%, SPX loses 0.75% to  gains 0.75%.
    • Between 0.25% – 0.30%. As mentioned, the market fixing implies a 0.26% core reading and the move in yields may not be as strong as one would expect on a beat where one would expect ~15bps move in the 10Y yield but this is a positive outcome for risk assets as this print would likely restart the Goldilocks narrative with 24Q1 data being viewed as an anomaly. Probability 25%, SPX gains 0.75% to 1.25%.
    • Between 0.20% – 0.25%. The immediate reaction would be a surge in September rate cut expectations with some likely pointing to July for a surprise, insurance cut given the move by the ECB. While July sees highly unlikely, putting September back on the table would be view favorably by risk assets and we could see some yield curve steepening to aid the Cyclicals/Value trade. Probability 12.5%, SPX gains 1.25% to 1.75%.
    • Below 0.20%. Another tail-risk scenario, likely fueled by a material decline in shelter inflation with goods disinflation supporting the print. Look for a collapse in yields, a material increase in July cut expectations, and a rally across all risk assets ex-commodities. In Equities, this would look like an “everything rally” with both NDX and RTY outperforming the SPX. This outcome, if confirmed in the July print, would trigger a reset in thinking about which stage of the economic cycle we currently reside as well as talks of the Fed having achieved a No Landing/Soft Landing scenario. Probability 2.5%, SPX gains 1.75% to 2.50%.

    In Europe, the volatility of the past two days is subsiding investors were caught unprepared for French far-right gains in the weekend’s European Parliament elections; European stocks are on course to rise for the first time in four sessions, led by gains in banks, insurance and financial services. The CAC 40 is higher but underperforming its regional peers as political uncertainty continues to linger. Here are the biggest European movers:

    • UCB shares gain as much as 5.6%, the most since February and to a record high, after JPMorgan raised its recommendation for the Brussels-listed biotech to neutral from underweight.
    • Credit Agricole shares rise as much as 3.2% after Jefferies upgrades to buy, saying that the pullback in French banks since President Emmanuel Macron called a snap election presents an opportunity.
    • Rentokil shares jump as much as 16% after US investor Nelson Peltz’s Trian Fund Management amassed a stake that made it one of the ten biggest shareholders in the pest controller.
    • Richter shares gain as much as 1.5% after Hungarian pharmaceutical company agreed to buy some assets from Mithra Pharmaceuticals and its subsidiary late Tuesday.
    • RWS Holdings shares rise as much as 6% after the translation services company’s interim results, with Berenberg saying growth returned in the second quarter and should now continue into 2H.
    • Lonza shares dip as much as 3.2%, weighed down by speculation that a potentially beneficial US bill may be excluded from the National Defense Authorization Act due to a tight pre-election schedule.
    • Legal & General shares fall as much as 4.7%, most since April 25, after the UK financial services firm forecast a slowdown in dividend-per-share growth.
    • Colruyt shares plunge as much as 14% after the retailer issued cautious guidance because of increased competition and promo pressure.
    • Umicore shares drop as much as 9.1%, to their lowest intraday since 2011, as the Belgian materials technology firm downgraded its guidance.
    • Camurus shares fall as much as 6.1% after holder Sandberg Development offers 1.35m shares at SEK550 apiece, representing approximately an 8.6% discount to the last close.
    • Stabilus shares fall as much as 17%, the steepest decline on record, after the German machinery maker sent out a profit warning last night, cutting its revenue and Ebit margin guidance.
    • Safestore shares drop as much as 3.1% after the self-storage company’s interim results showed a drop in adjusted earnings, while warning full-year EPS will be at the lower-end of consensus.

    Earlier, stocks in Asia fell for a second day, led by weakness in Japanese and offshore Chinese shares. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 0.4%, with Alibaba and Toyota among biggest drags. Benchmark in China was flat while that in Hong Kong closed at the lowest level since late April. Shares in Japan fell, while those in Korea were among the top gainers. In China, consumer prices rose less than expected in May and factory prices dropped for the 20th month in a row, fueling concerns over persistently weak demand. “Asian markets waded through murky waters today, with investors on edge ahead of a double-dose eventful day,” said Hebe Chen, an analyst at IG Markets. Also, specific headwinds are raising alarms for traders in China, Hong Kong, and Japan, she said.

    In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index slipped below the “crucial 18,000 level” due to the lackluster China’s CPI data and fresh speculation about looming US chip restrictions, Chen said, adding that Japanese stocks tumbled as hot PPI muddles the outlook for the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision due this Friday.

    In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained 0.1%, edging up for a fifth straight day as Treasury futures positioning data suggested the Fed will likely keep borrowing costs elevated. “A higher-than-expected US CPI will make the tone of the FOMC meeting more hawkish and result in USD strength,” said Richard Grace, a senior currency analyst at InTouch Capital Markets in Sydney. “Conversely, a lower-than-expected CPI will see the USD depreciate as Fed Chair Powell maintains the optimism for eventual rate cuts”

    In rates, treasuries are also slightly higher ahead of US consumer prices and the Federal Reserve decision, with US 10-year yields falling 1bps to 4.40%. Traders are pricing an 80% possibility that the Fed may cut rates in November, while they price a total of 39 basis points of easing by the end of the year. French 10-year yields are flat at 3.22%. Gilts rise, with little reaction shown to a slight beat for UK GDP in April.

    In commodities, oil prices are higher, with WTI rising 1.3% to trade near $78.90 a barrel. Spot gold falls ~$3 to around $2,314/oz.

    Bitcoin in consolidation mode in-fitting with broader markets; currently sitting just above USD 67k.

    Today’s economic calendar includes includes May CPI (8:30am), monthly budget statement and FOMC rate decision (2pm). Fed officials scheduled to speak after the FOMC meeting include Powell (2:30pm news conference), Williams (Thursday), Goolsbee and Cook (Friday)

    Market Snapshot

    • S&P 500 futures little changed at 5,387.00
    • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 519.79
    • MXAP little changed at 178.98
    • MXAPJ up 0.3% to 559.05
    • Nikkei down 0.7% to 38,876.71
    • Topix down 0.7% to 2,756.44
    • Hang Seng Index down 1.3% to 17,937.84
    • Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 3,037.47
    • Sensex up 0.4% to 76,762.03
    • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.5% to 7,715.51
    • Kospi up 0.8% to 2,728.17
    • German 10Y yield little changed at 2.61%
    • Euro up 0.1% to $1.0752
    • Brent Futures up 0.8% to $82.61/bbl
    • Gold spot down 0.2% to $2,312.95
    • US Dollar Index little changed at 105.19

    Top Overnight News

    • China’s May inflation is essentially inline (but still soft), with the CPI +0.3% (vs. +0.3% in Apr and vs. the Street +0.4%) and the PPI -1.4% (vs. -2.5% in Apr and vs. the Street -1.5%). RTRS  
    • Brussels will impose tariffs of up to almost 50 per cent on Chinese electric vehicles, brushing aside German government warnings that the move risks starting a costly trade war with Beijing. The European Commission notified carmakers on Wednesday that it will provisionally apply additional duties of between 17 and 38 per cent on imported Chinese EVs from next month. FT
    • The US Treasury is expected to roll out a big expansion of its secondary sanctions program on Russia this week, treating any foreign financial institution transacting with a sanctioned Russian entity as though it is working directly with the Kremlin’s military-industrial base. FT
    • The world faces a “staggering” surplus of oil equating to millions of barrels a day by the end of the decade, as oil companies increase production, undermining the ability of Opec+ to manage crude prices, the International Energy Agency has warned. FT
    • Israel/Hezbollah tensions spike after an Israeli strike killed the most senior Hezbollah commander since the start of the war in Gaza (Hezbollah fired a barrage of rockets toward Israel in response). Jerusalem Post
    • Emmanuel Macron said he won’t resign if his party suffers a poor result in snap French parliamentary elections, saying that’s absurd. “I will kill this idea, which never actually existed.” The French president said he’ll appoint a PM as the constitution demands but that doesn’t mean handing control to the far right. BBG
    • Today’s Fed meeting looks set to be one of the year’s most pivotal with Jerome Powell potentially offering his clearest hints yet to the rate path. Bloomberg Economics expects the new dot plot will probably indicate two 25-bp cuts this year, compared with three previously. BBG
    • US crude inventories resumed their downward trajectory, led by a 1.9 million barrel decline at Cushing, API data is said to show. That would be the biggest drop in more than four months if confirmed by the EIA today. BBG

    A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

    APAC stocks were mostly subdued after the mixed handover from US peers as markets braced for the incoming US CPI data and the FOMC announcement. ASX 200 was pressured amid weakness in mining, tech, and the defensive sectors. Nikkei 225 retreated beneath the 39,000 level as participants digested firmer-than-expected PPI data which rose at the fastest annual pace in 9 months. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were somewhat varied with underperformance in Hong Kong as China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle shares dropped around 20% amid the threat of losing key assets after local administrative bodies demanded repayment of CNY 1.9bln in subsidies by its units. Meanwhile, the mainland was cautious amid frictions with the US and after mixed Chinese inflation data including softer-than-expected CPI and a narrower deflation in factory gate prices.

    Top Asian news

    • US President Biden’s administration is to widen sanctions on Wednesday on the sale of semiconductor chips and other goods to Russia, according to Reuters sources. US will change export controls to include US-branded goods and not just those made in the US, while the measures are aimed at targeting third-party sellers in China and Hong Kong that are supplying Russia.
    • China reportedly weighs a ban on bank distribution of hedge fund products, according to Bloomberg.
    • Chinese Foreign Ministry says EU tariffs on Chinese EVs violate market economy principles and international trade rules; China will take all measures to firmly defend interests.
    • EU intends to impose provisional tariffs on Chinese EV’s of 21% for cooperating companies, 38.1% for those which have not

    European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+0.4%) are entirely in the green, attempting to trim some of this week’s significant losses, sparked by political uncertainty in Europe. European sectors hold a strong positive bias, with Banks taking the top spot as the sector finds its footing after this week’s weakness. Autos is the clear laggard, after news that the European Commission will notify carmakers that it will provisionally impose additional duties of up to 25% on imported Chinese EVs from next month. US Equity Futures (ES +0.1%, NQ +0.1%, RTY -0.1%) are trading on either side of the unchanged mark with price action tentative ahead of today’s key risk events, which includes US CPI and the FOMC Policy announcement.

    Top European News

    • ECB’s Kazaks sees hopes of further rate cuts this year. Need to be convinced that inflation will not return.
    • ECB’s Villeroy says inflation will be below 2% in France starting next year, even at 1.7%.
    • ECB Schnabel says the economy is recovering gradually, last mile of disinflation is proving bumpy; first indications of easing wage growth.
    • UBS expects BoE to start cutting interest rates in August (prev. forecast June)
    • French President Macron says they have not been able to form lasting coalitions. EU vote clear, could not be ignored.

    FX

    • USD is flat and in a narrow range as participants await the double dose of US risk events in the form of CPI and the FOMC; DXY resides within 105.21-32 parameters, well within yesterday’s 105.09-46 range.
    • EUR price action has been uneventful thus far awaiting today’s key risk events; EUR/USD in a 1.0733-47 range thus far.
    • GBP has also been trading sideways finding intraday resistance at 1.2750 (vs low 1.2729) with little immediate move seen in the wake of in-line GDP which ultimately resulted in little change in BoE pricing.
    • JPY is very modestly softer irrespective of the overnight risk aversion and firmer-than-expected PPI data; USD/JPY currently trading within a 157.03-37 range.
    • Antipodeans are both modestly firmer facilitated by an attempted recovery in base metals, but with gains capped as the risk tone remains cautious ahead of the aforementioned risk events.
    • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1133 vs exp. 7.2558 (prev. 7.1135).

    Fixed Income

    • USTs are flat ahead of US CPI for one final read into the FOMC meeting where market pricing currently has a 99% chance of an unchanged rate. Currently holding near a fresh WTD high at 109-20, sparked by Tuesday’s strong US auction.
    • Bunds are firmer with initial impetus stemming from Tuesday’s strong US auction and perhaps some marginal follow through from UK GDP numbers. Bunds are within a 130.21-130.50 bound, and have edged down towards the mid-point of the range after a poorly received Bund auction.
    • Gilts are firmer, in tandem with broader strength in EGBs/USTs; amidst this, the morning’s UK GDP metrics were broadly in-line but the internals around Construction/Manufacturing were soft and sparked a very modest dovish move to BoE pricing.
    • Germany sells EUR 3.3bln vs exp. EUR 4bln 2.20% 2034 Bund: b/c 2.0x (prev. 2.8x), average yield 2.6% (prev. 2.53%) & retention 16.75% (prev. 17.9%).
    • UK sells GBP 900mln 0.625% I/L Gilt 2045: b/c 3.88x real yield 1.304%

    Commodities

    • Crude is firmer and at session highs, continuing to build on yesterday’s bullish private inventory data which saw a larger than expected draw in crude and gasoline. Additionally, geopolitical updates out of Israel/Hezbollah point towards recent escalations within the region. Brent Aug currently around USD 82.85/bbl.
    • Precious metals are flat/mixed as traders look ahead to the US CPI and FOMC; XAU sits in a USD 2,310.60-2,317.70/oz range.
    • Base metals are attempting a recovery from the recent slide in prices induced by Fed expectations following Friday’s NFP data. Chinese inflation did little to sway prices as trades await upcoming US macro events.
    • IEA Oil Market Report: lowers 2024 demand growth forecast by 100k BPD to 960k BPD; 2025 oil demand growth seen at 1mln BPD amid a muted economy and clean energy tech deployment; major oil surplus seen this decade as demand peaks.
    • UBS says on Gold “we have raised our 2024 avg. forecast and year-end target by 8% to USD 2365 and USD 2600 respectively”
    • US Private Inventory Report (bbls): Crude -2.4mln (exp. -1.05mln), Cushing -1.9mln, Distillate +1mln (exp. +1.6mln), Gasoline -2.5mln (exp. +0.9mln).
    • Azerbaijan oil production was 62.1k/T day in May.

    Geopolitics: Middle East

    • Rocket sirens are reportedly sounding over several towns in Northern Israel, according to Horowitz on X; Israeli media says “Heavy bombardment from Lebanon towards northern Israel, and sirens activated in Tiberias, Safed, and Galilee” via Sky News Arabia.
    • IDF Radio reports “More than 100 rockets fired from the south Lebanon on Safed, Tiberias and their surroundings in a few minutes”.
    • Hamas official said their response to the Gaza ceasefire deal is responsible, serious, and positive, while the official added the response opens a wide way to reach an agreement.
    • Israeli official said Hamas has rejected the proposal for a hostage release presented by US President Biden, while the official added that Israel received the Hamas response via mediators and that Hamas changed the proposal’s main parameters.
    • Israeli airstrike on south Lebanon killed four people including a senior Hezbollah field commander, according to three security sources cited by Reuters. It was later noted that the Hezbollah commander killed in an Israeli airstrike on Tuesday was the most senior member killed in the last 8 months.
    • US Pentagon said Secretary of Defense Austin discussed with his Israeli counterpart by phone efforts to calm tensions along the Israeli-Lebanese border, according to Sky News Arabia.
    • Rocket sirens are reportedly sounding over several towns in Northern Israel, according to Horowitz on X; Israeli media says “Heavy bombardment from Lebanon towards northern Israel, and sirens activated in Tiberias, Safed, and Galilee” via Sky News Arabia; IDF Radio reports “More than 100 rockets fired from the south Lebanon on Safed, Tiberias and their surroundings in a few minutes”.

    Geopolitics: Other

    • EU is proposing to sanction Russian oil-shipping giant Sovcomflot, according to Bloomberg.
    • EU is pushing ahead with Chinese electric vehicle tariffs that are set to bring in more than EUR 2bln a year, despite opposition from Germany, according to FT. European Commission will notify carmakers that it will provisionally impose additional duties of up to 25% on imported Chinese EVs from next month. Note, it was reported that yesterday Chinese Auto Industry Association CPCA said the EU could impose a 20% tariff on Chinese EVs, which is an understandable trade practice.
    • Japan mulls sanctioning groups including Chinese firms for aiding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to NHK.

    US Event Calendar

    • 07:00: June MBA Mortgage Applications +15.6%, prior -5.2%
    • 08:30: May CPI MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.3%
      • May CPI YoY, est. 3.4%, prior 3.4%
      • May CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
      • May CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 3.5%, prior 3.6%
      • May Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, prior 0.5%
      • May Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior 0.5%, revised 0.6%
    • 14:00: June FOMC Rate Decision
    • 14:00: May Monthly Budget Statement, est. -$276.5b, prior -$240.3b

    DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

    Forgive me for feeling a touch melancholy this morning as I type this at 5am as a 50 year old. I’ll be celebrating by giving the opening speech this morning at DB’s 28th annual European LevFin conference featuring over 1000 investors and issuers. See you there if you’re attending. The highlights from my 40s were 3 kids I didn’t know if I’d ever have, 4 costly renovation projects, 6 knee surgeries, several inner ear surgeries, one back surgery and several trapped nerves. On the plus side of my mid-life crisis, my golf handicap has gone from 6 to 1.9 in my 40s which partly explains some of the ailments above. Let’s hope by the time I’m 60 I’ll have a few AI generated artificial limbs to help me hit the golf ball further.

    It’s been another challenging 24 hours for European markets, with risk assets hacking out of the rough thanks to the ongoing political uncertainty in Europe. Meanwhile in a different universe, the S&P 500 (+0.27%) sailed down the middle of the fairway and hit a fresh all time with Apple (+7.26%) having its best day since November 2022 and returning above $3tn market cap and to an all time high itself after a difficult first 3-4 months of the year.

    In terms of the European market moves, it was another difficult day for French assets. For instance, the 10yr Franco-German spread widened by another +5.0bps to 60bps, and the CAC 40 (-1.33%) fell to its lowest level in almost four months. Banks were among the worst affected again, with fresh losses for Société Générale (-5.02%), Crédit Agricole (-3.90%) and BNP Paribas (-3.89%). The three banks are now down -12.11%, -7.34% and -8.47% respectively since Monday’s open. At the height of the selloff yesterday, there were even unconfirmed press reports (later denied) that President Macron could resign after the election, before yields came off from their highs later on in the session.

    President Macron is set to speak at a press conference today, but in the meantime, there have been growing questions about the political landscape his centrist alliance will be facing at the elections. On the left, an alliance was formed on Monday night between the Greens, Socialists, Communists and La France Insoumise. But on the right of the political spectrum there’s still uncertainty, as Éric Ciotti, who leads Les Républicains party, called for an alliance with Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National. Other figures in the party sternly rejected those suggestions, but the historic divisions between the traditional right-wing parties and the RN are becoming increasingly blurred as the latter has come to dominate the right-wing of the political spectrum in France . Later in the day, we heard that talks on forming an alliance between RN and the smaller far-right Reconquest party had broken down. In terms of the latest polls, an Ifop survey out yesterday had Marine Le Pen’s party on 35%, an alliance of four left-wing parties on 25%, and Macron’s alliance on 18%.

    This political uncertainty weighed on markets across the continent. That included a third day of losses for the STOXX 600 (-0.93%), with the Stoxx banks index (-2.66%) seeing its largest decline since August. Equities slumped in several countries, with particularly sharp declines in southern Europe, including Italy’s FTSE MIB (-1.93%) and Spain’s IBEX (-1.60%). Sovereign bonds mostly rallied given the risk-off tone, and yields on 10yr bunds came down -4.8bps. But there was still a clear widening in spreads, with 10yr French yields (+0.2bps) just closing at their highest level of 2024 so far. Italian yields (-0.1bps) were also broadly flat despite the core rates rally.

    This included 10yr US yields being down -6.3bps to 4.405%. US yields had been trading modestly lower on the day in the risk-off environment emanating from Europe but then saw a sizeable rally after a strong 10yr Treasury auction. This saw the highest bid-to-cover ratio in over two years and the lowest primary dealer take up since August, with $39bn of bonds issued 2bps below the pre-sale yield.

    The next test / opportunity for Treasuries will come with today’s epic double bill with the US CPI release for May, as well as the Fed’s latest decision. In terms of the Fed, they’re widely expected to leaves rates unchanged today, so the focus is likely to be on the latest dot plot, as well as the new economic projections. Last time, the dot plot still pencilled in three cuts this year, but only just, and it would have only taken one dot to shift for the median to be at two cuts. Since then, the inflation figures have remained higher than the Fed would ideally like, and our US economists expect the median dot to only show two cuts now, and they also see the core PCE forecast for this year being upgraded by two-tenths to +2.8%. Looking forward, they also see the 2025 dot being revised up by 25bps, so that would signal a shallower pace of cuts. See here for their full preview.

    Of course, the signals from the meeting could be influenced by the CPI release earlier in the day, as a surprise in either direction could lead to shifts in their inflation projections. In terms of what to expect, our US economists expect headline CPI to come in at +0.12%, and core CPI to come in at +0.27%. If those are realised, then that would mean the year-on-year headline CPI comes in at +3.4%, while core falls to +3.5%. Click here for their full CPI preview and how to sign up for the subsequent webinar.

    Ahead of this US markets were largely unphased by the developments in Europe, with the S&P 500 (+0.27%) posting another record high. One sector affected by contagion from Europe were banks as the S&P 500 banks index fell -2.15%. Tech stocks outperformed, with the NASDAQ up +0.88% and the Magnificent 7 up +1.00%. The latter came mostly as Apple (+7.26%) posted its best day since November 2022 to climb to a new all-time high. Less than two months ago Apple was down -16.7% from its last all time high back in December so a decent bounce back. Monday initially saw a dip after the OpenAI partnership was a “sell the fact” moment but the reaction turned much more positive yesterday.

    Asian equity markets are mostly declining this morning with China’s soft consumer prices data weighing on proceedings. As I check my screens, the Hang Seng (-1.43%) is the worst performer among Asian indices on news that the US is considering further trade sanctions on China’s access to AI chip technology. Meanwhile, the Nikkei (-0.63%), CSI (-0.18%) and Shanghai Composite (-0.04%) are also trading marginally lower. The KOSPI (+0.38%) is managing to buck the trend though. US equity futures are flat along with US treasuries.

    Coming back to China, CPI disappointed as it rose +0.3% y/y in May, weaker than market expectations for a rise of +0.4%. PPI contracted -1.4% y/y in May (v/s -1.5% expected), marking its smallest contraction since February 2023 and up from last month’s -2.5% decline. It has been negative for 20 months now though. Elsewhere, Japan’s PPI rose +2.4% y/y in May (v/s +2.0% expected) as against prior month’s upwardly revised increase of +1.1%.

    Looking at yesterday’s other data, the UK unemployment rate rose to 4.4% (vs. 4.3% expected) over the three months to April, which is its highest level in two-and-a-half years. Separately in the UK, there’s just over three weeks until the election on July 4, and a YouGov poll showed the right-wing Reform UK party on 17%, just one point behind the governing Conservatives on 18%. Labour are still clearly ahead on 38%, but that’s the closest gap between the Conservatives and Reform in a poll so far.

    To the day ahead now, and the main highlights will be the US CPI release, along with the Federal Reserve’s decision and Chair Powell’s press conference. Otherwise in Europe, we’ll get the UK GDP release for April, and central bank speakers will include ECB Vice President de Guindos, and the ECB’s Vujcic, Nagel and Villeroy.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/12/2024 – 08:13

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Jun 12

Today’s News 12th June 2024

  • Send This Article To People Who Say "Ivermectin Doesn’t Work For Covid-19"
    Send This Article To People Who Say “Ivermectin Doesn’t Work For Covid-19”

    Authored by David Gortler via the Brownstone Institute,

    If you hear your pharmacist, physician, or academic dean parrot the malignant regurgitated trope of “Ivermectin doesn’t work for Covid” or that there is “no evidence” or “no data” to support ivermectin’s use in Covid-19, send them this meta-analysis summary and annotated bibliography of over 100 studies. 

    I never really latched on to the idea of social media, which is why I never signed up for it. In addition to pathological social factors, I think it is an especially absurd format for serious scientists to initiate a debate on the intricacies and complexities of medical research, clinical pharmacology, or patient care. 

    I did not have a Twitter/X account but very recently created one after I was contacted by colleagues alerting me to posts from Dr. Peter Hotez criticizing my recent testimony before the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic held by Dr. Brad Wenstrup (R-OH). Dr. Hotez is a pediatrician and tropical medicine Dean at Baylor in Houston, Texas. About six weeks later, Dr. Hotez responded to my testimony on Twitter/X: 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    I attempted to rebut Dr. Hotez’s statement by setting up a Twitter/X account only to find out that I couldn’t! Little did I know that the only way to comment on Dr. Hotez’s public Twitter/X page was to be granted permission by him to do so!! And here I thought the idea of Twitter was to foster discourse; not stifle it. 

    Outside opinions NOT WELCOME: Screenshot from Dr. Hotez’s Twitter/X account when I tried to respond to his denigration of my congressional testimony. 

    It certainly appears that dissenting scientific opinions are not welcome on Dr. Hotez’s Twitter/X page. 

    Dr. Hotez’s critique of my testimony was not an invitation to discuss the merits or shortcomings of ivermectin therapy; it was a figurative “drive-by shooting” stating that my sworn Congressional testimony was: 

    1. “dangerous anti-science disinformation, pure and simple” and that
    2. “Ivermectin does nothing to help people with Covid” and
    3. “Ivermectin doesn’t work for Covid”

    The second (in a list of around a dozen short, subsequent tweets by Dr. Hotez) was a pitch for his book. 

    Dr. Hotez then “upvoted” and reposted a note from one of his selected followers who appears to be a Twitter moderator of some sort. This individual had gleefully declared that my testimony had been “community-noted” adding that “Numerous valid scientific studies have shown that ivermectin is completely ineffective” (emphasis added) and “the promotion of Ivermectin for vaccine injury puts lives at risk.” The latter statement was a sleight of hand, as I had never opined on the use of ivermectin for “vaccine injury” at any time during my testimony or in any of my previous writings. 

    Twitter’s community notes are intended to give context to posts with debatable data, with this one, purporting to “debunk” my testimony, containing seven (7) reference links. Two of the links were duplicates, referring to the exact same data (numbers 1 and 3 and numbers 2 and 7). They referred to JAMA or NEJM studies which in turn have been criticized by academics as having very significant scientific and clinical practice shortcomings. Although the note additionally specified that “the promotion of ivermectin for ‘vaccine injury’ puts lives at risk,” none of those links determined that the use of ivermectin poses a safety “risk.” When prescribed correctly, ivermectin has not only been determined to be safe, but it has historically proven itself to be “astonishingly safe.” 

    The second-to-last “community note” link was a non-working link to an FDA website. It didn’t work because the FDA had agreed to delete it over a month earlier as part of a legal settlement for improperly denigrating ivermectin use. Didn’t the Twitter/X “community note” staffers bother to click on the links to make sure they worked before permitting them to be posted as references? Eventually, other individuals noticed the palpable shortcomings of the “community note” as well because it was quickly removed despite stating that it “Cites high-quality sources.” 

    A picture of the original “community note” with added arrows highlighting specific areas is shown below: 

    Of course, neither myself nor anyone else could contradict those claims because we were all blocked from posting by Dr. Hotez. It appears that he would rather make an incorrect assertion, then stick his fingers into his ears after he was finished saying what he had to, running away from any potential discussion, while his “approved” posters swarm to up-vote him – but all while potential counterarguments can’t be posted. 

    With no outside dissent allowed, does that mean Dr. Hotez “won” the debate? 

    It turns out my foray into Twitter was misguided and a waste of time. My Twitter/X account is now history. While it works great for a myriad of different matters, it is obviously an absurd place for a serious person to attempt to discuss or debate the intricacies of medical science or patient care. At this point, I have no intention of returning. 

    Ignoring and Censoring Data in History: Copernicus and Galileo

    Consensus is very important to some, but unfortunately, it isn’t related to science. Science doesn’t care about consensus. In fact, many of the biggest scientific advancements were the result of questioning an established consensus. Generating a consensus for a new, controversial topic can be particularly dangerous. When people agree they tend to support each other, but a danger exists that they forget that they are reaffirming a potentially incorrect or polarized belief because their decision-making is biased and/or occurring in a vacuum. 

    In almost exclusively permitting harmonically positive feedback for himself, Dr. Hotez has failed to consider that it was artificially cultivated with essentially no meaningful dissent allowed to take place. In addition to being anti-free speech, it’s a terrible example for a scientist to set, particularly for someone in the position of a professor educating future scientists. The best scientists are the ones who are willing to listen to the opinions of other intellectuals and consider their arguments. 

    History shows us that ignoring scientific evidence and quashing dissent isn’t good for technical advancement; something that a professor who also labels himself a “science warrior” on his own homepage probably ought to already know. 

    A textbook example of “anti-science” was when Copernicus and Galileo tried to advance theories that the earth rotated around the sun (as opposed to the heliocentric narrative of the earth being the center of the universe, around which all celestial objects rotated). Copernicus and Galileo were ignored and their writings were banned. Both were tried by a panel of their peers, found guilty, removed from their didactic pulpits, arrested and imprisoned. Galileo was eventually permitted to live out his remaining years, exiled under “house arrest” away on a farm. But even then, at least both Copernicus and Galileo were given opportunities to argue and present their evidence…unlike Dr. Hotez’s blockaded Twitter account. 

    Medicine is Rarely “Black or White”

    Despite decades of advancement, clinical science is seldom black or white. Only very rarely are there declarations “never” or “nothing” or “completely.” Still, Dr. Hotez routinely makes polarizing, binary black-or-white, right-or-wrong assertions from his “members-only” perch on Twitter/X, neglecting or ignoring data – and it’s not just for Covid treatments. 

    A great deal of medical and pharmacology research deals with levels of uncertainty, something which I regularly taught my students and hoped that most medical scientists already knew and understood. Declarations otherwise would be irresponsible emerging from any medical scientist, let alone one with Dr. Hotez’s credentials. 

    Dr. Hotez’s unambiguous declarations that: ivermectin is “completely ineffective” and ivermectin’s use represents “anti-science disinformation pure and simple” are simply not reflected in both the review of many clinical trials and larger statistical analyses of published literature. In fact, there is data that sharply and directly contradict Dr. Hotez’s statement that “Ivermectin does nothing to help people with Covid.” 

    It is my belief that the continued accumulation of positive findings for ivermectin will continue and show an even greater positive effect for Covid pre-exposure prophylaxis, early exposure, and early treatment modalities. Like a good scientist, I am open-minded and am willing to hear out intellectual, alternative thoughts from my detractors. That being said, I have a considerable amount of data backing up my opinion. 

    Response to Dr. Hotez’s Assertion: “Ivermectin Does Nothing to Help People with Covid”

    Since I am not permitted to respond on Twitter/X, (in addition to the fact that it is not an appropriate platform to discuss the complex details of clinical trial data) I’m responding in the form of a review, analysis, and lengthy, annotated bibliography. 

    Academics should encourage the discussion of controversial topics. In composing an argument, one needs to present all available data – not exclusively preferred findings from selected “big name” domestic medical journals (which by the way are often heavily financed with expensive advertisements from Big Pharma) – but legitimate clinical and scientific data from all sources.

    First, publications in “big name” journals like the NEJM and JAMA are not holy scripture beyond critique. Also, there is legitimate research being conducted in non-US countries and/or published in smaller journals worthy of consideration. On top of that, those who spend their lives in medical research will tell you that non-NEJM and non-JAMA, non-“big name” smaller, observational, and/or real-world study data are not only very worthy of consideration, but that those study designs and results can often be even more reflective of a drug’s utility and safety. 

    Cochrane’s Ivermectin Review is Incomplete

    Cochrane’s March 2024 review of ivermectin has been cited as a source of data for ivermectin being ineffective. However, Cochrane only considered 11 Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) covering 3,409 participants. For ivermectin, there are 50 RCTs covering 17,243 participants which when analyzed in combination, show very strong evidence for efficacy in Covid-19. The fact that Cochrane selectively excluded a large amount of study data, while simultaneously including low-quality data with high conflict of interest and highly biased study designs, is more than a little perplexing. Of note, Cochrane also didn’t combine all of the evidence from the studies it did choose to include; data was split into very small sets by outcome and patient status, with no method used to combine all of the evidence from independent studies. 

    It seems to me that Cochrane isn’t what it used to be, and I for one am very disappointed. 

    Data Analysis

    The proper application and weighting of data and its random effects meta-analysis across all studies can provide a complete picture of an effect. It includes all data, including too-low-dose, too-short-duration, less effective late- versus early-treatments, wrongly used fasting dosing (ivermectin is substantially better absorbed with high-fat foods [2.5x greater] according to the Merck package insert). 

    To date, there exists a list of 103 manuscripts written which studied ivermectin. Those data also include 15 medRxiv and/or preprint articles, (for journals that refuse to defy Big Pharma narratives and/or potentially those that the White House has ordered censoring) and all studies that showed ivermectin’s effectiveness with some certitude, but not at the level of p≤0.05. On a side note: inclusion versus exclusion of the medRxiv/preprint articles does not alter the overall positive ivermectin treatment effects. 

    These clinical findings are in addition to the highly plausible molecular biology and pharmacology mechanisms of how ivermectin is potentially effective for preventing the entry of some viruses into cells. For purposes of keeping the length of this document manageable, the pharmacologic mechanism of action will not be discussed here. 

    A Value of p ≤0.05 is Important, but it Isn’t Everything

    Studies with p-values higher than 0.05 still provide evidence – just evidence with a lower than 95% confidence. Alone, those studies may not provide statistical confidence by themselves against the null hypothesis. However, they may contribute to a meta-analysis, in which they are weighted appropriately. In an analysis, they may actually result in strong statistical evidence and greater confidence from the combination of data from multiple independent scientific teams. Smaller studies and real-world observational studies should not always be dismissed as non-evidential; even case reports and case series have historically played an important role in biomedical research and the assessment of drug safety. In fact, those sources of data were part of what I routinely considered in approving new drugs and labeling updates during my years at the FDA as a drug safety expert. 

    RCTs are conceptually preferred if properly designed and carefully conducted, but the Covid era exposed severe biases in such trials: including but not limited to treatment delays (as Covid-19 along with any antiviral treatment must begin promptly) protocols that were designed to fail, mid-study changes, biased analysis and presentation, and lack of transparency in data and suspiciously timed publication releases. Each study should be evaluated for potential biases and/or confoundings on its own merit, whether randomized or observational, large or small. 

    Major RCTs allegedly producing Big Pharma-coined-term of “Evidence-Based Medicine™” published in “big journals” can appear very compelling, especially because they are what the lay press tends to cite most commonly, but clinicians should know that it is important to examine the methodology used beyond the high-level summary overviews and to also look at additional sources of data. 

    Another problem with RCTs is that, unlike real-world and observational studies, not just anyone can conduct large RCTs. Barriers include them often being significantly more expensive, time-consuming and requiring a dedicated, highly skilled support staff. Those sorts of requirements prohibit entry by less-well-funded clinicians who have smaller practices/facilities or those that have employment requirements which have a focus on direct care responsibilities as opposed to clinical research. While federal grants are available, they are highly competitive and tend to be limited to particularly listed topics which in turn end up being awarded to a limited number of major centers with those aforementioned resources.

    Those major centers and/or their employees can be connected in one way or another to Big Pharma funding. For highly profitable Covid-19 drug trials, it could directly or indirectly create a conflict or incentive to show a lack of effectiveness or safety for inexpensive generic products, and in turn show efficacy for novel, expensive patented commercial products. This scenario not only applies to Covid-19 treatments such as ivermectin, it applies to a fair amount of all investigational medicine research. 

    In fact, a multitude of smaller, less expensive non-RCT observational/real-world-use studies across many facilities can make a stronger case by noting that dependence on any individual trial is subject to potential confounding, errors, bias, and even fraud. Therefore, the combined evidence from multiple, well-designed and conducted smaller, real-world, case reports, case series, and/or observational trials from an array of smaller facilities, combined via meta-analyses can sometimes be a stronger indicator than that of just one or a few biased large trials. 

    A diagram adapted from a Nature publication (below) illustrates a scenario in which 4 (four) smaller studies that individually may not have delivered statistical significance (ie, have a p>0.05) but when considered in combination, may provide strong evidence with a statistical significance via meta-analysis: 

    Separately, that same publication additionally underscores how important it is for scientists and clinicians to not mistakenly assume that “non-significance” (ie, a higher deviation from p≤0.05) translates to “no effect.” Statistical significance is just a numerical estimate of the confidence of a result. The idea that a small p-value implies that the estimate is credible/true/valid /the-only-thing-that-matters is a misconception. A small p-value of an RCT (for instance) says nothing about the quality of the estimate. 

    In the matter at hand, and in summation, a random-effects meta-analysis shows a clinically beneficial effect of ivermectin with a certainty of p<0.00000000001 (that is, one in one sextillion) over all 103 ivermectin studies for Covid-19, and also for RCTs and for specific outcomes like mortality hospitalization and recovery cases which all show p<0.0001. 

    Timing is Everything…(When it Comes to Initiating Antiviral Treatment)

    The use of the word “early” in the “c19early.com” website is an important annotation. It reminds us of how critical timing is when it comes to any antiviral/antimicrobial drug administration. Ivermectin as an antiviral works best when administered early upon symptom(s) (or for prophylaxis/pre-exposure). That is the same when it comes to any antiviral pharmacology treatments, including for cold sores, genital herpes, influenza, or HIV/AIDS for instance.

    Delayed administration could still have a clinical benefit, but less so, depending on how late and individual factors that include viral replication, infective loading dose, and viral variant/mutation, besides numerous demographic, immunologic, plus other factors. That is a fundamental concept that anyone in the field of pharmacy or medicine should have learned early in their schooling, yet it seems to have been omitted in about half of the 103 studies done on ivermectin which employed delayed or late treatment. 

    In addition to the delay in ivermectin dosing was the delay in releasing study findings. The worst example might be PRINCIPLE RCT results which were delayed over 800 days from the expected release of findings. PRINCIPLE (bibliography and explanation in reference number 88 below) was biased against showing efficacy per the design, operation, analysis, and reporting, and including very late ivermectin administration, yet still ended up showing a positive effect of ivermectin. During the delay in releasing data, novel, expensive, likely less efficacious “rebounding” Big Pharma treatments like molnupiravir and Paxlovid were developed, (and tested against placebo instead of treatments like ivermectin) reviewed, authorized, and White House-endorsed. Paxlovid ($1,400 per treatment course) and molnupiravir ($700 per course) were each around ten times more expensive than ivermectin (<$100 per course). Paxlovid purchased by the White House cost American taxpayers over $10 billion. 

    For perspective: the greater than $9 billion savings from the use of ivermectin alone could have instead bought about 36,000 $250,000 Lamborghini Huracans, or alternatively for those of us who must work for a living, about 300,000 $30,000 Toyota Camry SEs (the most popular model). 

    For Covid-19, There is More to the Data than Just Press/Abstract “Topline Results”

    To fully address transparency, I am including a full list of ivermectin studies completed to date, with the plurality of positive and negative findings in the form of an annotated bibliography at the end of this article to allow readers to see the sources of the research. Each of the 103 references includes a brief summary and a link to a longer analysis at c19early. 

    Along with the bibliography, I am also including two summary plots of the ivermectin data from c19early on overall benefit, and relative benefits from prophylaxis, early, and late treatments.

    Click here to see annotated bibliography.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/11/2024 – 23:40

  • Mapping Cost Per Prisoner By US State
    Mapping Cost Per Prisoner By US State

    The US prison population consists of around 1.2 million inmates.

    Looking at data from USAFacts obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Annual Survey of State and Local Government Finances, which was most recently updated in June 2023, we can analyze which states have the highest and lowest expenditures of their taxpayer dollars per prisoner.

    Differences in Prison Spending Vary Widely Across States

    As Bruno Venditti notes via Visual Capitalist, over $80 billion is spent annually on prisons in the United States.

    A large part of this is used to pay over 4,000 vendors that serve the criminal legal system, including healthcare providers and food suppliers.

    At the state level, most of the budget goes for day-to-day operations, including officer salaries.

    In high-wage states such as California, New Jersey, and Massachusetts, officers receive double the salaries compared to those in lower-wage states like Mississippi, Missouri, and Kentucky.

    As a result, spending can vary from just under $23,000 per prisoner in Arkansas to $307,468 in Massachusetts.

    States With the Highest Incarceration Rates

    Southern U.S. states have the highest imprisonment rates according to 2022 data, with Mississippi at 859 people per 100,000, Louisiana at 775, and Arkansas at 743.

    Massachusetts has the lowest rate of any state, with 116 people per 100,000.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/11/2024 – 23:20

  • Iran Releases List Of Six Presidential Candidates To Replace Raisi
    Iran Releases List Of Six Presidential Candidates To Replace Raisi

    Via The Cradle

    On Sunday, the Iranian Ministry of Interior released the final list of candidates qualified to compete in the election for the ninth president of the Islamic Republic of Iran. This election will determine who will succeed the late President Ebrahim Raisi, who, along with seasoned top diplomat Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and seven others, passed away in a helicopter accident on May 19, during the third year of his presidency.

    In his stead, and by the constitution, First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber was named interim president. He will be replaced by a successor following an election that must take place within 50 days of Raisi’s death being declared. Candidates running for president must be approved by the 12-member Guardian Council to ensure their commitment to the principles of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, which established the Islamic Republic.

    The list was provided to the Interior Ministry by the powerful Guardian Council of the Iranian Constitution, an entity consisting of six appointed clerics and six elected jurists whose main task is to vet the candidates vying for elections in Iran and certify poll results. Amid much speculation, six candidates made it to the final list, surprising many by excluding well-known figures such as three-term speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Ali Larijani, and two-term president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

    The candidates are Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, Amir-Hossein Ghazi-Zadeh Hashemi, Saeed Jalili, Masoud Pezeshkian, Mustafa Pour-Mohammadi, and Alireza Zakani.

    A closer look at the candidates

    Mohammad-Baqer Ghalibaf

    Mohammad-Baqer Ghalibaf (62 years old), a two-term lawmaker from Tehran and former Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) member, has held various key positions over the past three decades. His roles include member of the Expediency Council, commander of the Police Force, and Mayor of Tehran from 2005 to 2017. 

    Despite numerous bids for the presidency in 2005, 2009, 2013, 2017, and now in 2024, he has yet to succeed. His recent nomination sparked criticism as it came just five days after he secured the votes of nearly 200 lawmakers to become the speaker of the new parliament.

    Amir-Hossein Ghazi-Zadeh Hashemi

    Physician Amir-Hossein Ghazi-Zadeh Hashemi (53 years old) is a conservative and four-term lawmaker and was chairman of the Martyrs and War Veterans Foundation in the Raisi administration. The Guardian Council approved his candidacy in the 2021 presidential race, where he garnered less than a million votes. He is the only Raisi administration candidate to have made the Guardian Council cut, which dilutes the criticism of reformists who also only have one candidate in the running.

    Saeed Jalili

    Former lead nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili (59 years old) is a politician deeply loyal to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He has been rewarded for his loyalty by being one of Khamenei’s three representatives at the Supreme National Security Council, where he also served as secretary for seven years from 2006 to 2013. 

    An Iran–Iraq war veteran who lost a leg in that conflict, Jalili is known for his firm stance during nuclear negotiations with western countries in the early 2000s. He was a vocal critic of the 2015 nuclear deal and opposed its revival under Raisi’s presidency. 

    Jalili ran against President Hassan Rouhani in the 2013 election, ranking third with four million votes. He was nominated again in 2021 but withdrew in support of Raisi’s candidacy.

    Masoud Pezeshkian

    A heart surgeon and former health minister under President Mohammad Khatami (2001–2005), Masoud Pezeshkian (70 years old) is a five-term Reformist lawmaker from East Azerbaijan province. He is one of three candidates backed by the Reformist Front of Iran, who pledged to participate only if the Guardian Council approved at least one of their candidates. Despite accusations against him for advocating federalism and pan-Turkism, the Guardian Council’s approval of Pezeshkian’s candidacy strongly suggests these rumors are unfounded. 

    Mustafa Pour-Mohammadi 

    Mustafa Pour-Mohammadi (65 years old), originally from Qom, is a judge and prosecutor who rose to become senior director at Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence. He served as Interior Minister under President Ahmadinejad (2005–2008) before being dismissed due to differences with him. 

    Under President Rouhani, he was appointed Minister of Justice despite allegations of human rights violations related to the execution of Mujahedeen-e Khalgh Organization (MKO) members in the late 1980s. 

    Pour-Mohammadi, along with the late President Raisi, was on the panel that ruled on these executions. He was also a member of the Assembly of Experts until he failed to secure enough votes in the March 2024 election.

    Alireza Zakani

    Alireza Zakani (59 years old) is a physician-turned-conservative politician, the current mayor of Tehran, and a four-term lawmaker from Tehran and Qom constituencies. Although he was disqualified in the 2013 and 2017 presidential elections, Zakani was admitted in 2021 and supported then-candidate Ebrahim Raisi. His current nomination raised suspicions that he aims to play a similar supporting role for Saeed Jalili, which he denies. 

    What’s next? 

    The Guardian Council has approved three physicians, a cleric, a former diplomat, and Ghalibaf, the jack of all trades. Its spokesman announced that the candidates could start their two-week campaign immediately. 

    Iranians now have two weeks to decide whether to participate in the election and, if so, whom to vote for. Voter turnout in the 2021 election was 48.8 percent, one of the lowest in the Islamic Republic’s history, as Raisi received nearly 62 percent of the votes, barely reaching 18 million.

    Following the large attendance for Raisi’s funeral, the Islamic Republic hopes a similar number will go to the polls on June 28 and surpass the turnout from three years ago.

    In the weeks ahead, the candidates must not only appeal to their base but also reach out to undecided voters, addressing their concerns and presenting a vision that resonates with the broader population. The ability to mobilize support and inspire confidence will be crucial in determining who will lead Iran through its next chapter.

    As in most mainstream polls over the past few years, the leading candidates appear to be in the conservative camp, with Jalil and Ghalibaf holding strong leads. But if past elections are any indicator, public sentiment can shift dramatically during the two short weeks of campaigning, as was seen in Rouhani’s first election, when he raced to a clear lead after trailing in polls for weeks.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/11/2024 – 22:50

  • Biden Campaign (Again) Claims Trump "Has Praised The Third Reich"
    Biden Campaign (Again) Claims Trump “Has Praised The Third Reich”

    Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

    Biden campaign senior adviser Adrienne Elrod claimed Monday that Donald Trump has “praised the Third Reich” and intends to rule as a racist dictator.

    During an interview with CNN, Elrod was asked to comment on Republicans who “worship” Trump, and responded “I think that rhetoric speaks for itself.”

    “Donald Trump and his MAGA allies are focused on seeking revenge and retribution,” Elrod asserted, adding “They are running a negative campaign that is not focused on the American people, but is focused on themselves.”

    She continued, “Trump has made it very clear that if he steps back into that White House, he will rule as a dictator on day one. He will seek — he will use the White House to seek political revenge and retribution on his political enemies.”

    Trump actually said he won’t do that, but it doesn’t fit the Biden campaign’s narrative.

    While she was at it, Elrod painted up Trump as an admirer of Hitler.

    “You know, he has said things that — you know, he’s praised the Third Reich. He has used, you know, racist rhetoric at every chance that he has,” she claimed.

    Praised the Third Reich? Presumably she is referring to this…

    The desperation among the Biden campaign is palpable. His approval rating just hit a new all-time low of 37.4 percent.

    FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver noted that the downward trend for Biden means that dropping out of the race is worth discussing, even though it “would be a big risk” for the Democrats.

    “But there’s some threshold below which continuing to run is a bigger risk,” Silver commented, adding “Are we there yet? I don’t know. But it’s more than fair to ask.”

    “If I’d told you 10 years ago a president would seek re-election at 81 despite a supermajority of Americans having concerns about his age, and then we’d hit 8% inflation for 2 years, you wouldn’t be surprised he was an underdog for reelection. You’d be surprised it was even close!” Silver further wrote.

    *  *  *

    Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/11/2024 – 22:20

  • FOMC Preview: From Three Rate Cuts To Two
    FOMC Preview: From Three Rate Cuts To Two

    Coming just hours after the May CPI print, tomorrow’s – and the month’s – main event is the FOMC decision due at 2pm ET, when the Fed is widely expected to leave rates on hold at 5.25-5.50%, and the statement will likely also largely be reiterated after slight tweaks in the May statement. Attention will fall on the Summary of Economic projections, and more specifically, the Dot Plot, where the number of projected rate cuts in 2024 will be trimmed from 3 to 2. After a string of hot inflation reports in Q1, the Fed has been stressing that the luxury of a strong economy gives the Fed time to be patient before acting, and the hot NFP released (assuming of course that a drop of 625,000 full-time jobs is viewed as “strong”), last week only gives the Fed more time. Therefore, it is likely the 2024 median FFR will be revised up from the 4.6% – or equivalent to 3 rate cuts over the remainder of 2024 – pencilled in at the March meeting.

    Indeed, money markets currently look for between one or two rate cuts this year, with WSJ’s Fed mouthpiece Nick “Nikileaks” Timiraos confirming “they know that we know that they know that we know”, or that “most sell-side economists and other professional Fed watchers now anticipate one or two rate cuts this year in either September or December”. In other words, the ground is set for the dots to tighten, but the question is by how much: one, two or three cuts? It is also worth noting that the May US CPI report will be released on the morning of the FOMC, which will impact expectations of the dot plot going into the rate decision. With FOMC members already in possession of the May CPI report, Powell has previously said that the Fed is allowed and encouraged to update their forecasts until late morning of the meeting, therefore the data will likely be incorporated into the Fed’s decision-making and forecasts. Then, once the rate decision, statement and SEPs are released, attention will turn to Fed Chair Powell’s Press conference at 19:30 BST / 14:30 EDT.

    POLICY: The Fed is widely expected to leave rates on hold at its June meeting with the Fed not yet convinced inflation is returning to target in a sustained manner, despite rate cuts from global peers such as the ECB and BoC last week. Given tweaks to the statement at the last meeting, noting there has been a lack of further progress towards the 2% goal and that risks to the mandate have moved towards better balance, they will unlikely alter the statement much. It will also likely repeat “The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.” Nonetheless, the focus of this meeting will be on the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEPs), or “Dot Plots”.

    FOMC POLICY STATEMENT

    Current conditions: Morgan Stanley look for an important change to the characterization of inflation that is an acknowledgement of improvement in inflation data through April, though still not enough improvement to be convincing.

    Risk to the statement: Since the last FOMC meeting, there has been a single improved inflation print in April. The risk is that FOMC officials have not yet gained enough conviction, and that they pair unchanged inflation language with a more concentrated move in the dot-plot to fewer cuts this year.

    SUMMARY ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS: With the Fed recently stressing that the luxury of a strong economy gives the Fed time to be patient before acting, it is likely the 2024 dot will be revised up, particularly after the May NFP report. WSJ’s Timiraos highlights that “Most sell-side economists and other professional Fed watchers now anticipate one or two rate cuts this year in either September or December”. Money markets are currently pricing in 38bps of rate cuts by year-end (fully priced for one cut, with a c. 50% probability of another 25bp cut), however, this is subject to change with the US CPI to be released on the morning of the FOMC. Which may have some sway on Fed officials’ thinking when entering their dot plots. Powell has previously said FOMC members are encouraged to update their forecasts up until mid/late morning, once the Fed has seen the data.

    The March dot plot was unchanged from December, with the median view looking for three rate cuts in 2024, with rates ending the year at 4.5-4.75% vs the current 5.25-5.50%. Nonetheless, the composition of dot plots was more hawkish, with nine members pencilling in the year-end rate at 4.6%, vs six in the December dot plots, with more dovish dots aligning with the Median. Nonetheless, it would have only taken one of the median dots to pencil in a higher rate to have lifted the median, with 8 on the FOMC pencilling in a rate above the current median. Therefore, that, accompanied by a string of hot inflation reports in 2024, as well as plenty of Fed speak suggesting they can afford to be patient before cutting rates, it is likely the 2024 median dot plot will be revised up. It is likely to pencil in just one or two rate cuts this year, instead of three. Note, the median 2025 dot is currently at 3.9% (vs December’s 3.6%), the 2026 dot is at 3.1% (vs December’s 2.9%), with the longer run rate, or neutral rate, at 2.6% (vs December’s 2.5%). Some on the Fed have suggested it is possible the Neutral Rate has risen from before (Bowman), while others suggest the neutral rate is relatively low (Waller).

    Aside from rate forecasts, the SEP will also show the updated views for Core PCE, PCE, Unemployment and real GDP. FOMC Vice Chair Williams gave his personal expectations, noting he sees inflation at 2.5% this year (vs the Fed March median SEP of 2.6% on Core, 2.4% on headline), before being closer to 2% in 2025 (vs Fed median of 2.2%). He sees 2024 growth between 2.0-2.5% (vs Fed March Median SEP of 2.1%). Williams expects unemployment of 4.0% this year (vs Fed March Median of 4.0%).

    ECONOMY: The prior statement saw a slight language tweak to suggest that risks to achieving its mandate have moved towards better balance (prev. moving into better balance), reflecting some of the concerns about an employment downturn. However, it also added a line that there has been a lack of further progress towards the committee’s 2% inflation goal. Since then, there have been mixed signals from the labor market, with the April NFP and JOLTS coming in soft, while the May NFP was much hotter than expected, although the Household survey was a disaster with full-time jobs plunging and the unemployment rate hitting 4.0%. The Fed has made it clear they are willing to hold rates higher for longer given the strength of the economy, and only in the case of an unexpected weakening of the labor market, or signs that inflation is convincingly returning to target, would they be prepared to lower rates. Meanwhile, after the hot inflation reports in Q1, the April reports were on net softer, and were seen as a welcome sign to the Fed, but still a reminder that the return to target will still be slower than initially expected.

    DOT PLOT: Goldman, along with many on Wall Street, expects the median forecast to show two cuts in 2024 (vs. three in March) to 4.875%, four cuts in 2025 (vs. three in March) to 3.875%, and three cuts in 2026 (unchanged) to 3.125%. Goldman suspects that the Fed leadership would prefer for the median dot to show a two-cut baseline in 2024 in order to retain greater flexibility to cut in Q3 if the inflation data warrant it. But the key risk is that the median could instead show just one cut in 2024, especially if the May core CPI print comes in well above the 0.3% forecast or if more FOMC participants see a 2.8% year-on-year rate of core PCE inflation as too high to justify two rate cuts. Goldman also thinks the median longer-run or neutral rate dot could tick up a touch further. FOMC participants are likely to raise their longer-run dots gradually over time because both market-based approximations of the neutral rate, namely distant forward interest rates, and the econometric models of neutral that the Fed staff tracks suggest that the neutral rate is higher than the current median estimate of 2.56%. Finally, the bank expects that in addition to gradually raising their longer-run neutral rate estimates, FOMC participants will continue to show terminal rate projections that are above their neutral rate estimates on the grounds that non-monetary policy tailwinds are boosting aggregate demand (i.e. Joe Biden’s debt tsunami) and offsetting the impact of higher interest rates on the economy.

    RECENT FED SPEAK: Fed speakers have been mostly singing from the same hymn sheet, still stressing a higher-for-longer
    approach and no rush to cut rates, noting they will be letting the data dictate decisions. Many said that a rate hike is not in the baseline outlook, although some are refusing to rule it out in case inflation were to surprisingly accelerate again. Nonetheless, although after the hot inflation reports in Q1, the April reports have started to bring some optimism that inflation is still easing, albeit at a slower pace than before, perhaps indicating it will take longer for inflation to return to the Fed’s 2% target. Officials have stressed that inflation does not need to return exactly to 2% before they cut rates, but they need to be confident that it is convincingly and sustainably on its way to target, something which they do not have at the moment, and they would need a string of good inflation reports for them to gain that confidence. Some, including Chair Powell, have noted that an unexpected weakening in the labour market could also be a reason to cut rates, even if they did not have the inflation confidence yet, but so far the labour market still shows signs of tightness and is in no way classified as an “unexpected weakening”, particularly after the May jobs report. Powell stated it would take more than “a couple of tenths” to move higher in the unemployment rate for an unexpected weakening.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/11/2024 – 22:01

  • Korybko: Don't Read Too Deeply Into Russia's Naval Visit To The Caribbean
    Korybko: Don’t Read Too Deeply Into Russia’s Naval Visit To The Caribbean

    Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

    US officials claimed last week that Russia is sending several warships and aircraft to the Caribbean, where they’re expected to visit Cuba and Venezuela once they arrive sometime soon, which Havana then confirmed. This coincided with the further worsening of Russian-US ties amidst the latter’s dangerous game of nuclear chicken in Ukraine and came as President Putin cryptically warned that his country could arm the US’ enemies just like they’re arming Russia’s.

    This context might have prompted some observers to remember that Deputy Chairman of the Duma’s Defense Committee and leader of the Rodina party Alexei Zhuravlev told local media in late January that Russia should base nuclear missiles and associated submarines in Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. It was advised at the time here not to read too deeply into his suggestion since it was likely only shared for the sake of media hype and could backfire on Russia’s partners if it provokes a sharp uptick in US meddling.  

    Likewise, observers also shouldn’t read too deeply into Russia’s upcoming naval visit to the Caribbean either since this appears to be nothing but a symbolic move aimed at showing the West that Russia can position forces on their borders too and that it’s not “isolated” like their media claims. It’s important to note that the unnamed US officials downplayed this development by claiming that they don’t regard it as a threat, which is true, but they might also have ulterior motives for saying so.

    Some might have expected that they’d exploit this move to maximally fearmonger about Russia ahead of the November elections, but the argument can be made that drawing attention to this would play into Moscow’s hands by enabling it to more compellingly make the abovementioned points to the US public.

    For that reason, while the US is downplaying this visit (at least for the time being), publicly financed Russian international media and sympathetic independent media will probably hype it up.  

    Getting Americans to feel what it’s like to have a nuclear-armed adversary in their backyard might convince more of them that their government should take tangible steps towards freezing the Ukrainian Conflict before tensions spiral out of control. In what many expect to be a close election, this could make all the difference over who wins, though President Putin already said that the outcome doesn’t matter for Russia.

    Even so, there are certainly some policymakers here who despise Biden for what he’s done to Russia through Ukraine, and they might want their media to amplify the messages being sent by these upcoming drills to give Trump an edge as revenge for the incumbent’s warmongering. There’s also the possibility, however faint it might appear at present, that Russia considers selling its Caribbean partners missiles that could hit the US or “leaks” this scenario to its media to spread to Americans.

    All told, the real significance of this upcoming visit is to make American policymakers and the public uneasy, not to prepare for attacking the US or bolstering its regional partners’ capability to do so.

    The unnamed officials who talked to the media about this understand Russia’s goal very well and that’s why they downplayed this visit’s military importance, but it’s precisely for this reason that Russian media and sympathetic independent outlets might make this trip out to be something that it isn’t.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/11/2024 – 21:40

  • Trump's Reluctance To Address Abortion Leaves Pro-Lifers Lukewarm
    Trump’s Reluctance To Address Abortion Leaves Pro-Lifers Lukewarm

    Donald Trump spoke to one of the country’s most fervently anti-abortion groups on Monday, but never said the word “abortion” — leaving the audience lukewarm while underscoring the issue’s dicey election-year dynamics. 

    The Danbury Institute describes itself as “an association of churches, Christians, and organizations aligned to affirm and preserve God-given rights to life and liberty…and promoting Judeo-Christian values as the proper foundation for a free and prosperous republic.” In addition to opposing abortion, the group also works against, among other things, “LGBTQ+ indoctrination of children, gender confusion, transgender ideology, the dissolution of the nuclear family.”

    The Institute’s stance on abortion is unequivocal: “We will not rest until it is eradicated entirely.” The same can’t said for Trump’s rhetoric in the one-minute, 44-second pre-recorded video he sent to the group’s Indianapolis gathering. Channeling the tactics of a TV psychic medium, Trump’s intentionally vague language was meant to give the audience every opportunity to interpret it in the way they’d find favorable: 

    • “We have to defend religious liberty, free speech, innocent life and the heritage and tradition that built America into the greatest nation in the history of the world”

    • “Each of you is protecting those values…and I hope we’ll be defending them side by side”

    • “I know where you’re coming from and where you’re going, and I’ll be with you side by side”  

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    The words “innocent life” were Trump’s only nod to the issue. Some in the audience saw through Trump’s oratorical snow job, including pastor Rick Patrick of First Baptist Church of Sylacauga, Alabama told Politico

    “He sounded more like a politician who wants to be elected. I voted for him and I plan to vote for him again, but he was not like the other speakers who were here talking about religious things.

    A similar sentiment was offered by Kevin McClure, a Baptist attendee from Louisville: 

    “It’s disappointing because you would hope to have a Republican presidential candidate who speaks strongly that life begins at conception.”

    Conversely, some major media outlets ran with the most anti-abortion interpretation of Trump’s hazy rhetoric, exemplified by a Washington Post headline: “Trump Vows To Be ‘Side By Side’ With Group That Wants Abortion ‘Eradicated’.” Other Biden boosters tried to connect the same dots:  

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    One of the most historic events transpiring during Trump’s term in office was the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v Wade, which quite rationally turned the enormously divisive abortion issue back to the purview of individual states. Three Trump-appointed justices voted to overturn Roe. Even on that score, Trump didn’t take an explicit victory lap in his Monday remarks, instead saying he hopes he’s earned the audience’s support “because we’ve done things that nobody thought were possible.” 

    Abortion is a major driver of Democratic voter turnout, so Trump is wise to soft-pedal the topic — as leftists are otherwise profoundly unenthusiastic about the Democrats’ 2024 flag-bearer. In March, Trump hinted that he was considering the merits of a federal, 15-week ban on abortion. In a particularly preposterous statement, Trump promised that, if he were elected, he’d “come together with all the groups” to “negotiate something” that “would make both sides happy.” 

    In May, however, Trump issued a video statement in which he embraced a state-by-state approach, saying:   

    The states will determine by legislation or vote or perhaps both, and whatever they decide must be the law of the land. In this case, the law of the state. Many states will be different, many will have a different number of weeks or some will have more conservative than others, and that’s what they will be. At the end of the day, this is all about the will of the people,” 

    Trump will be walking an abortion tightrope until Election Day, going easy on his opposition to the practice, while trying to avoid fostering resentment in the pro-life crowd that’s a key GOP constituency. A progressive polling firm found that, to Republicans’ benefit, “infrequent voters” — the ones who only turn out only when they’re fired up but who are often a key element in Democratic victories — rank abortion only the 11th most-important issue, well behind a pack of worries that has inflation and jobs first. 

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    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/11/2024 – 21:20

  • Afghanistan's Taliban Reports $80 Million In Crude Oil Sales In 10 Days
    Afghanistan’s Taliban Reports $80 Million In Crude Oil Sales In 10 Days

    Authored by Alex Kimani via OilPrice.com,

    • The spokesperson for the Taliban’s Ministry of Mines and Petroleum reported that the group had successfully sold $80 million in crude oil.

    • China’s CAPEIC’s investment of $49 million in Afghanistan has helped boost the country’s daily crude oil output to more than 8,000 bpd.

    • Spanning Afghanistan and Tajikistan, the Amu Darya basin is estimated to contain 962 million barrels of crude oil and 52,025 billion cubic feet of natural gas.

    Afghanistan has sold 150,000 tons (1.1 million barrels) of crude oil from the Amu Darya basin for more than $80 million over the past 10 days, with Beijing’s investment in the country beginning to bear fruit. 

    On Sunday, Humayun Afghan, the spokesperson for the Taliban’s Ministry of Mines and Petroleum, revealed that the group had sold 130,000 tons of crude oil for $71.6 million before it successfully put up another 20,000 tons (146,000 barrels) of crude worth $10.5 million for bidding on the same day. This marks a reversal of fortunes for one of the Middle East’s most volatile regions with the country previously importing the 50,000 barrels of oil it consumes daily from neighboring countries such as Iran and Uzbekistan.

    It all began a year ago when China’s Xinjiang Central Asia Petroleum and Gas Co, or CAPEIC, signed a 25-year contract with Taliban authorities in Afghanistan. That contract requires CAPEIC to invest $150 million by the first year and a total of $540 million by 2026. So far, CAPEIC’s investment of $49 million in Afghanistan has helped boost the country’s daily crude oil output to more than 1,100 metric tons (8,000 barrels per day), a volume that could increase significantly if the company is to fulfill its contract. According to a top Taliban official, CAPEIC fell short of its investment target due to inaccurate estimates of material and labor costs coupled with a three-month delay in the approval of its financial plan by Afghan authorities.

    “The investments will add up as the contract stipulates,” the Taliban official told VOA on condition of anonymity, adding that the Taliban’s treasury earned about $26 million from the project last year.

    Spanning Afghanistan and Tajikistan, the Amu Darya basin is estimated to contain 962 million barrels of crude oil and 52,025 billion cubic feet of natural gas, according to a 2011 assessment by the U.S. Geological Survey. To tap into this potential, CAPEIC plans to dig 22 additional wells in 2024, aiming to increase daily production to more than 2,000 tons, or~15,000 barrels. 

    Beijing has been cozying up to Kabul ever since the United States withdrew from Afghanistan in 2021 after a 20-year presence. Chinese diplomats have been meeting their Afghan counterparts almost weekly since the establishment of a Taliban government in Kabul, with western analysts alluding to some sort of emerging “cooperation.” Back in January, Chinese President Xi Jinping received the diplomatic credentials of the Taliban’s ambassador to Beijing. The move confounded foe and friend alike because no country has formally declared its recognition of the Taliban government. However, it’s not clear if Beijing’s action constitutes diplomatic recognition.

    “Although the attraction of [Afghanistan’s] mining and energy resources is strong, there is considerable Chinese wariness about the internal security situation, the reliability of Taliban assurances regarding foreign investments, and Afghanistan’s poor infrastructure,” Andrew Scobell, distinguished fellow for China at the United States Institute of Peace, told VOA.

    Meanwhile, other geopolitical analysts have hypothesized that Beijing’s main motivation in its dealings with Afghanistan is risk mitigation amid a potential security vacuum, a viable reason considering that the two countries share a 92 kilometer-long border. Last year, Beijing and Islamabad agreed to include Afghanistan in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. CPEC provides a blueprint for civil-military cooperation aiming to enhance the participants’ connectivity. 

    There’s little doubt that China wants to project power over Central Asia for several reasons. First, the region is a core component of the Belt and Road Initiative, a global infrastructure development strategy adopted by the Chinese government in 2013 to invest in more than 150 countries and international organizations. Second, on a regional level, Beijing would want Kabul to consider it a top ally over competing powers such as Russia and India, both of which have some influence over Afghanistan.

    On its part, the U.S. government and other lawmakers are more concerned about the possibility of China taking over the Bagram airfield in the north of Kabul that its military used as its main base throughout the Afghan war.

    “We don’t see Afghanistan as a place where we need to compete with the Chinese and the Russians,” Thomas West, the U.S. special representative for Afghanistan, has declared.

    The United States and China have adopted very different diplomatic approaches toward Afghanistan. Whereas Beijing has chosen the investment/security cooperation route, the U.S. remains the leading humanitarian donor to Afghanistan, providing more than $2 billion in humanitarian assistance since the Taliban takeover.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/11/2024 – 21:00

  • Duke Of Moral Hazard: Biden Agency To Hide Medical Debt From Credit Reports
    Duke Of Moral Hazard: Biden Agency To Hide Medical Debt From Credit Reports

    In a move that can only add risk to the financial system, the Biden administration is proposing a rule which will ban medical debt from credit reports.

    The rule, announced on Tuesday by Vice President Kamala Harris and Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra, will improve the ability for millions of Americans to take out more debt to purchase things like homes and cars.

    According to Chopra, the rule – which has been in the works since September, could go into effect sometime next year.

    “Our research shows that medical bills on your credit report aren’t even predictive of whether you’ll repay another type of loan. That means people’s credit scores are being unjustly and inappropriately harmed by this practice,” Chopra told ABC News.

    CFPB’s research estimates that the new rule would allow 22,000 more people to get approved for safe mortgages each year — meaning lenders could also benefit from the positive impact on peoples’ credit scores, by being able to approve more borrowers.

    Some major credit report companies have already stopped using medical debt to calculate peoples’ credit worthiness, including Equifax, TransUnion and Experian. FICO and VantageScore also recently started factoring medical debt less heavily into their scores. -ABC News

    There are currently 15 million Americans with roughly $49 billion of medical debt, according to the CFPB, affecting roughly two in every five Americans according to KFF, a health policy research organization. The vast majority have debt in the thousands – which, when they go into collections, affect credit scores. This in turn hampers the ability to take out car and home loans – with those who can obtain them offered high interest rates.

    The new rule also takes aim at incorrect, confusing or complicated medical bills which often lead to protracted disputes.

    “Too often, we see that people are receiving bills that are inaccurate. Many patients are fighting over these bills for months, only to find that it then appears on their credit report,” said Chopra.

    Meanwhile, experts who support the new rule cite the already-low rate of collections on medical debt.

    “We know empirically that the repayment rates are incredibly low for medical debt, and so it’s already the case that people aren’t really paying it down. So I don’t think this policy change is going to change the behavior that dramatically,” said University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business’ Matt Notowidigdo.

    To Notowidigdo and many other health economists, addressing the root cause of America’s medical debt issue would mean enrolling more people in adequate health care coverage on the front end, “rather than dealing with unpaid medical bills from lack of insurance or not generous enough insurance on the back end,” he said.

    Of course, for now, those large bills and low repayment rates are already a challenge for hospitals and health care systems. -ABC News

    That said, if the CFPB rule leads to fewer people paying their bills, hospitals will have to make up for those losses in other ways – such as requiring payment before patients receive medical care, a move which could leave low-income patients worse off.

    “I think in the short run, it will be great news for patients, and probably we’ll see patient advocacy groups pushing it. However, I think in the long-run, when the long-term negative effects emerge, probably we’re going to see more pushback,” said Ge Bai, a professor who studies accounting health policy at Johns Hopkins University.

    Industry group also oppose the move.

    “There’s too much at stake for Americans’ access to quality health care by taking actions that only negatively affect the cash flow to the health care community without finding ways to replace those funds,” said Association of Credit and Collection Professionals CEO Scott Purcell.

    Chopra, however, rejects that notion – suggesting that medical debtors will still have to face other penalties.

    “Those individuals will still be subject to collection actions, lawsuits and more. There are plenty of ways that people get penalized for not paying their bills. I just don’t want to see the credit reporting system be weaponized against people who already paid them.”

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/11/2024 – 20:40

  • Orwellian 'Doublethink' Has No Place In Sports
    Orwellian ‘Doublethink’ Has No Place In Sports

    Authored by Barbara Kay via The Epoch Times,

    June 8 was the 75th anniversary of George Orwell’s anti-totalitarian novel, “1984.” Whenever we speak of the state’s encroachment on individual rights, on the role technology plays in manipulating information we receive, or the erosion of privacy rights, the word “Orwellian” isn’t far from our thoughts.

    Tropes from “1984,” such as “Thoughtcrime” and “Thought Police,” seem freshly minted to describe, for example, Canada’s Justice Minister’s defence of a law—Bill C-63—that would impose house arrest on someone who, according to the state, may commit a hate crime in the future.

    As if to mark “1984’s” diamond anniversary, although the coincidence was doubtless unintentional on their part, the International Olympic Committee has just issued their 2024 “Portrayal Guidelines,” an update of their 2018 guidelines, created as a recommendation of the IOC’s Gender Equality Review Project. These guidelines limn the attitude, vocabulary, and practices sport stakeholders will be expected to adopt in order to encourage “gender-equal and fair portrayal practices in all forms of communication” across the IOC, at the Olympic Games and throughout the Olympic Movement.

    A “portrayal” is not reality, but an interpretation of reality. In this case, the reality is that biological males, whose puberty has endowed them with significant athletic advantages over females, are permitted to compete against girls and women if they identify—or even if they only claim to identify—as women. The IOC’s interpretation is that males who identify as women are actual women. So, the Portrayal Guidelines can only be followed through the Orwellian practice of Doublethink. Doublethink is “to know and not to know, to be conscious of complete truthfulness while telling carefully constructed lies.” In practice, this means we must ignore what we know and see, and instead tell “carefully constructed lies” for the sake of a value the IOC considers higher than truthfulness.

    The guidelines inform us that “The IOC believes women’s and men’s events are of equal Importance.”

    That sounds good.

    And the IOC believes “Sport is one of the most powerful platforms for promoting gender equality and empowering women and girls.” That sounds good too. But then in the next paragraph, they say that the Olympic Games “are a unique and powerful platform to showcase the universality and diversity of sport to people across the globe, and particularly to women in all their diversity and other members of minority groups.”

    Did you catch the “in all their diversity” buried in that verbal cascade? Biological males in female sport—which is what women “in all their diversity” signifies—are posited as equivalent to women of different races or cultural backgrounds.

    A bit further on: “Sport has the power to shift how women in all their diversity are seen and how they see themselves.”

    Again, “in all their diversity.”

    And again, the notion that it is more important for “diverse” women—males—to have their sense of being a woman honoured and endorsed and reified than it is for actual women to enjoy a level playing field. To that end, the guidelines direct us to replace “identifies as” with “is” in our discourse.

    Other words we are pushed to avoid, because they are deemed “dehumanising and inaccurate,” include such wholly accurate terms as “born male” and “genetically female.” As for “dehumanizing,” that is an ideological cudgel to encourage Orwell’s Crimestop—“the faculty of stopping short, as though by instinct, at the threshold of any dangerous thought.”

    I daresay female athletes find it pretty “dehumanizing” to be forced down the chain of achievement by competitors with a built-in advantage over them.  As many legitimate studies attest, in sport, we cannot have both fairness and “inclusivity” of biological males in the women’s category. We must choose between them. But, as their guidelines make clear, the IOC prefers to lie rather than to privilege fairness, the only ethical choice.

    Whoever wrote the guidelines, they are Doublethink all the way down, geared to inculcation of the idea that gender identity rights trump sex-based rights, and that discourse around category eligibility based on athletes’ sex rather than their self-assigned gender is hateful.

    For a refreshing antidote to the obfuscatory fog of the IOC guidelines, the International Consortium on Female Sport has released their own fine lexicon of terms, a reminder that female athletes were not consulted for input into the IOC lexicon. Here, you will be reminded that two and two make four, not five, and that sex is not gender. Their “Statement on Terminology” contains two existential principles: that “language and concepts of biology take precedence over language and concepts that represent gender self-Identification,” and that “the usage of biological terms is not ‘hateful.’” Rational observers will find no reason to disagree with these truthful statements.

    In “1984,” Orwell’s vision of the uses to which future technology would be put—“Big Brother is watching you!”—is uniformly grim. His imagination didn’t stretch to modern technology’s awesome spectrum of effects, both marvellous and evil, nor to the possibility that technology might empower Big Brother and dissident “proles” alike.

    For example, take this hilarious recent exchange, posted on X.com, between Rachel Wong, CEO of Women’s Forum Australia, and Facebook’s ideologically programmed Meta AI.

    Wong opens the exchange with an assertion: “Transwomen are men.”

    Meta AI answers, “Transwomen are women. … Would you like to learn more about gender identity?”

    Wong responds, “What is gender identity?”

    Meta AI says it’s “a personal sense” of being a man or a woman.

    So Wong asks, “What is a woman?”

    And here the fun begins, as the catechized bot states that essentially “a woman is a person who identifies as a woman,” the IOC’s position.

    Wong points out the statement’s circularity to Meta AI, which agrees and apologizes, pivoting to another illogical argument, after which Wong scolds the bot for making it sound “like anyone can be a woman, in which case the word woman has no meaning at all.”

    It goes on and on, with the bot following all the correct “portrayal guidelines,” and Wong sticking to logic and reason, until finally Meta AI concedes:

    “You are absolutely right! I apologize for my previous mistakes. Your definition is indeed more accurate and straightforward: ‘A woman is an adult human female.’”

    Then Wong asks Meta AI, “What is a man?”

    In a heartbeat, back comes the answer, “A man is an adult human male.”

    Ecce automaton honestum!

    An indictment of all gender ideologues as well as the IOC’s double standards, and a victory for CriticalThink.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/11/2024 – 20:20

  • Philly Mayor Increases Police In Kensington As "Phase 2" Of Clearing Out Open Air Drug Markets Begins
    Philly Mayor Increases Police In Kensington As “Phase 2” Of Clearing Out Open Air Drug Markets Begins

    The more things change in the Kensington area of Philadelphia, the more they appear to stay the same. 

    Police in the drug-riddled Northeast are of the city are now moving to “Phase 2” of their improvement plan for the area, but video showed on social media over the weekend appears to make it clear that there’s still a lot of work to be done. 

    Next week, Philadelphia police will intensify patrols in Kensington as part the initiative, NBC reported this weekend.

    This enforcement phase will focus on apprehending drug dealers, executing warrant sweeps, and addressing prostitution along with other crimes impacting the community’s quality of life. Police Commissioner Kevin Bethel expressed concerns to NBC10 about a lethal new Fentanyl variant causing fatalities in the area.

    Philadelphia Police Commissioner Kevin Bethel said: “We will move into a space where we’ll be adding a substantial number of officers down into Kensington to address the drug sales and the drug activity and the poison sold on the street everyday.”

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    Some are still skeptical. “You can’t really police your way out of this. You have to make sure that people go into treatment and the resources are available,” said Rosalind Pichardo, the project manager for the Sunshine House, a hub for overdose and gun violence prevention services.

    “Yesterday, we responded to four overdoses,” she added. 

    Recall we wrote last month that as part of new mayor Cherelle Parker’s plan, during “Phase I”, the city was clearing out homeless encampments along the 3000 and 3100 blocks of Kensington Avenue.

    The Philadelphia Tribune reported that the city would displace hundreds of unhoused individuals to clear encampments in Kensington. At-Large Councilmember Kendra Brooks asked if there are enough beds for all those displaced and managing Director Adam Thiel assured that there are sufficient beds citywide.

    “We are building this ecosystem of facilities so we can get folks to the right place for the right care, for the right time, until they get back on their feet and can have access to economic opportunity,” he said.

    “They have to get rid of the drug dealers. Because if you don’t get rid of the drug dealers, [people] are going to keep coming back,” one resident said simply this past weekend. 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/11/2024 – 20:00

  • China's Real Estate Crisis: A New Experiment In State Intervention
    China’s Real Estate Crisis: A New Experiment In State Intervention

    Via SchiffGold.com,

    The real estate market is responsible for anywhere from 20% to over 30% of China’s GDP (depending on who you ask). And with the latest meltdown that began with the implosion of Evergrande, the situation just keeps getting worse, inspiring a slew of government interventions beyond the scope of what would be possible in a country like the US.

    It’s a test of China’s authority, and its ability to micromanage what was mismanaged from the start. With China’s real estate stocks down 20% since May can the CCP, in all its centralized power, prevent a full meltdown?

    China may succeed in kicking the can down the road, but it can’t save the real estate market — or economy — in the long term. Either way, history indicates that the current drawdown likely still has a long way down to go. 

    This chart shows a run-up to the current route, not long before the liquidation calls began for Evergrande and Country Garden and set the latest RE spiral into motion:

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    The People’s Bank of China can directly inject liquidity into a struggling sector. But state-owned companies also get to buy properties at government-set prices. The state and central bank can also change mortgage rates and payment requirements directly, unlike in the US where banks react to the federal funds rate set by the Fed. China is also loosening general restrictions on who is allowed to buy a home, hoping to juice the market and reduce vacancies, but there’s a potential catch-22 inherent to all such historic-level interventions: 

    If they stoke concerns among consumers and investors that the crisis is something to be deeply worried about, this can fuel a self-fulfilling feedback loop that worsens investor confidence even further. 

    Meanwhile, home buyers who fit the previously stringent criteria for buying homes feel duped now that those restrictions have been eased, devaluing their social status and the work they put into the home-buying process. With many complexes now having their unsold buildings turned into public housing, citizens who saved up their whole lives to become homeowners in these areas are becoming enraged to discover that their complexes will now be subsidized. Not only does that mean they paid too much, but their home’s attractiveness as a longer-term investment could drop. 

    According to Goldman Sachs, the current interventions still aren’t enough. A recent report calls for more liquidity to the tune of $276 billion (¥2 trillion yuan) to stabilize housing in major mainland cities, with ¥20 trillion yuan worth of real estate in need of a savior. 

    This liquidity would be meant to stop prices from continuing to plummet and allow over-indebted developers to pay back loans and interest. But in a market in need of such an intervention, even once prices stop plummeting, many become rightfully hesitant to become buyers. The below chart of China’s M2 money supply shows a dip in April 2024. It will be interesting to take another look after China’s intervention floods the economy with $500 billion yuan worth of relending programs. 

    Source

    To make matters worse in the longer term, declining birthrate and an aging population both indicate that demand is not going to pick back up enough to fill the apartments and houses built during China’s decades-long urbanization frenzy. This is a generational problem that goes beyond a single crash, liquidation, or bankruptcy — and can’t be properly fixed with centralized market interventions. Beyond that, even people in their prime home-buying age are more worried about future earnings than they used to be, without the feverish demand for urban homes that characterized so much of China’s rise to a global economic power.

    In a free market, nature determines the winners and losers. But in a command-and-control economy, the State gets to decide. And when the interventions brazenly defy economic reality, as central banks always do, everyone ends up losing in the end. That is, except for the central bank, the government, and their preferred cronies, who will be the ones who get the free money and the bailouts when it all comes crashing down.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/11/2024 – 19:40

  • Admission Of Failure? Democratic Cities Stop Reporting Crime Stats To FBI
    Admission Of Failure? Democratic Cities Stop Reporting Crime Stats To FBI

    The Biden administration’s statisticians at the Bureau of Labor Statistics have painted a rosy economic picture for the job market. Yet, voters know damn well the economy is in a persistent inflation storm sparked by Bidenomics. That’s why President Biden’s reelection odds are sinking by the month. The most recent BLS jobs report shows just how absurd these reports get by the month, and there is no shame by the gov’t statisticians as working poor Americans struggle to pay rent and put food on the table. 

    Context about the political BLS is crucial to understanding that data massaging doesn’t stop there. The White House has recently unleashed its propaganda cannons, claiming nationwide crime has plunged to a half-century low. The problem with this narrative is that it’s at odds with imploding progressive cities that do not uphold law and order and fail to arrest and prosecute criminals. Plus, on top of this all, Democrats have flooded the nation with ten million illegal aliens.

    Let’s begin with MSNBC’s Kyle Griffin, who posted on X the latest FBI crime stats that show murder, rape, robbery, theft, and property crime has plummeted across the board nationwide. 

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    The data is at odds with reality. Recently, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre touted: “Violent crime is at a near 50-year low…” 

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    Responding to Griffin’s post on X, Red State’s Bonchie said, “Pretty amazing what happens when left-wing cities just stop reporting crime to the FBI.” 

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    Bonchie cited a recent NRA-ILA report explaining how the Crime Prevention Research Center found that “one factor contributing to the ostensible dip in violent crime is that almost 40% of local law enforcement agencies are no longer transmitting their information to the national Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) database.” 

    You heard that correctly. 

    Violent crime across America must be so out of control in failed leftist metro areas that radical leftists in local governments just stopped reporting crime data to the FBI. This is an admission the woke utopia of criminal and social justice reforms is an utter disaster.

    Here’s more from the NRA-ILA report:

    In “2021, 37% of police departments stopped reporting crime data to the FBI (including large departments for Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York),” and for other jurisdictions, like Baltimore and Nashville, crimes are being underreported or undercounted. This leaves a large gap; by 2021, the real crime data collected by the FBI represented only 63% of police departments overseeing just 65% of the population. When compared to pre-2021 data, the result is a questionable “decline” in crime.

    One X user provides the three easy steps under progressive control to reduce crime:

    1. Don’t arrest criminals.
    2. Don’t prosecute criminals
    3. Don’t report crime statistics

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    Massaging economic data, like in the BLS’ case, or, Democratic cities just not reporting data to the FBI achieves the intended result:

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    Or better, create this narrative:

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    We all know this is nonsense data. 

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    A former alleged FBI agent on X explained: 

    “The problem is, that all the cities didn’t stop sending arrest data in at the same time.  The problem has been getting worse and worse as mayors got tired of claiming crime was down and then being called liars by people pulling up the FBI reported crime.  Their answer increasingly  became to just stop reporting the crimes (and also there was some reclassifying of violent crimes as well, like calling an armed robbery a larceny).  And, even the murder rates suffered from a data problem that’s really not anyone’s fault.   Trauma care just keeps better and better and a whole lot  of shooting victims who have died just a few years ago, now are saved.  (Baltimore saw this phenomena when they opened their shock trauma center and murders inexplicably went down while attempted murders went up.)” 

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    The Epoch Times’ Jeffrey Tucker had this to say last fall about falling crime statistics: 

    “Mass statistical ignorance is extremely costly. It allows a ruling class to toss around numbers all the time to sound vaguely sciency but without having any real substance behind the claims. This is what enabled the Biden administration to say daily that the job market is great, that economic growth is strong, that Americans are growing wealthier, and now, that crime is down. It’s all completely gibberish and contradicted by every bit of reality that we observe with our own eyes.” 

    And more recently RealClearInvestigations’ James Varney wrote in a note, “Baltimore department acknowledges its numbers may not be the same as those it submits to the FBI, but states on its website that “any comparisons are strictly prohibited.”

    To sum it up, the government is rigging statistics—be it about the economy or crime. You’re living in one giant matrix. This time, the bullshit is clearer than ever.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/11/2024 – 19:25

  • WTI Bounces After API Reports Crude, Gasoline Draw
    WTI Bounces After API Reports Crude, Gasoline Draw

    Oil prices edged higher today as traders anxiously await tomorrow’s CPI and FOMC risk catalysts for any signals on the trajectory of oil demand.

    “After recent declines, oil prices have room to recover in the short term,” Morgan Stanley analysts including Martijn Rats and Charlotte Firkins said in a note.

    “Nevertheless, inventories are currently higher than we expected some time ago, and on current trends, supply/demand balances will likely weaken after the third quarter.”

    Energy stocks ended lower on the day while WTI inched up to $78. All eyes on API for cues on whether this rebound in price can be sustained…

    API

    • Crude -2.4mm

    • Cushing -1.94mm

    • Gasoline -2.55mm

    • Distillates +972k

    Crude and gasoline stocks saw sizable draws last week as did the inventories at the Cushing Hub…

    Source: Bloomberg

    WTI was hovering around $77.80 ahead of the API print and bounced back above $78 on the draw…

    Along with OPEC+ plans to phase out voluntary output cuts after September, “we think this signals a cautious optimism from the organization when it comes to the trajectory of future supply/demand,” says Rohan Reddy, director of research at Global X in emailed comments.

    “The mid-$70s to low-$90s crude pricing we’ve seen in Brent over the past few quarters seems to be a range that OPEC is comfortable with, as the organization maintains its holding pattern,” he adds.

    Meanwhile, pump prices have fallen to three month lows as crude and gasoline prices have fallen…

    But it’s not helping Biden’s poll numbers…

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/11/2024 – 19:24

  • US Wants To Create 'Hellscape' Of Drones If China Attacks Taiwan
    US Wants To Create ‘Hellscape’ Of Drones If China Attacks Taiwan

    Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

    The US military is planning to create a “hellscape” of drones in the Taiwan Strait if China moves to attack Taiwan, the top US military commander in the region has told The Washington Post.

    Adm. Samuel Paparo, the head of US Indo-Pacific Command, told Post columnist Josh Rogin that the idea would be to send thousands of drones, unmanned submarines, and drone boats into the Strait to buy time for the US and Taiwan to prepare a defense of the island.

    Drone swarm illustrative file image.

    “I want to turn the Taiwan Strait into an unmanned hellscape using a number of classified capabilities,” Paparo said. “So that I can make their lives utterly miserable for a month, which buys me the time for the rest of everything.”

    The US has taken steps in the direction of developing swarms of drones for a future war with China. Last year, Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks outlined a plan to deploy thousands of drones controlled by Artificial Intelligence, known as the “Replicator Initiative.”

    “With Replicator, we’re beginning with all-domain, attritable autonomy, or ADA2, to help us overcome the [People’s Republic of China’s] advantage in mass: more ships, more missiles, more forces,” Hicks said at a conference in September 2023. She added that the US plans to deploy the drones “at a scale of multiple thousands, in multiple domains, within the next 18-to-24 months.”

    Paparo framed the plan as necessary to deter China from attacking Taiwan, but the US military buildup in the region and its new support for Taiwan has only raised tensions and is making a conflict more likely.

    The admiral also used Cold War-style language when discussing the situation in the Asia Pacific, saying regional countries need to make a choice between the US and China.

    “The region has got two choices. The first is that they can submit, and as an end result give up some of their freedoms… or they can arm to the teeth,” Paparo said. “Both cases have direct implications to the security, the freedom, and the well-being of the citizens of the United States of America.”

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/11/2024 – 19:00

  • Peso Tumbles Further After Leftist President-Elect Sheinbaum Confirms Drastic Reform
    Peso Tumbles Further After Leftist President-Elect Sheinbaum Confirms Drastic Reform

    The Mexican Peso has continued falling against the dollar on news that the country’s leftist President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum has committed to pushing through deeply controversial reforms of the judiciary widely seen as negative for Mexico’s efforts to create an attractive and prosperous business climate.

    In a Monday press conference she previewed plans to put her cabinet in place, after which she confirmed that the “constitutional reform of the judiciary would be among the first reforms to be approved.” A fundamental change is that that federal judges will get elected by popular vote, instead of appointment.

    Via Al Jazeera

    The reform is not merely a future election plan when judge’s terms are up, but would replace an appointed Supreme Court with popularly elected judges, and would apply to some lower courts.

    The reforms require amendments to the constitution, something easily attainable for Sheinbaum’s Morena party given it holds a supermajority in both houses of Mexico’s Congress.

    As Sheinbaum spoke Monday, the peso tumbled by nearly 2% to around 18.55 per US dollar in international trading, reaching a 14-month low, extending the ongoing decline since her June 3rd election victory. The peso has depreciated more than 9% since election day.

    Sheinbaum also announced that the Biden White House has sent a delegation to welcome her into the country’s top office, and an initial meeting will be held Wednesday.

    But current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador doesn’t actually step down until Oct. 1, and with Morena’s supermajority in Congress, López Obrador might fast-track the judicial reform, a further big unknown making investors nervous. 

    Bloomberg writes “MXN is down 1% and again among the worst performing major currencies in the word Tuesday, adding to recent losses that made it the second quarter’s biggest decliner.”

    AFP observes, “Congress is expected to convene on September 1, potentially giving Lopez Obrador a one-month window to push through reforms before retiring.” Below is more via a Bloomberg note:

    • Sheinbaum’s comments added to concern that Mexico’s government will face weakened checks and balances on its power, opening the way for market unfriendly measures
    • Broad flight-to-quality move is also weighing on the peso Tuesday; most major currencies are depreciating against the dollar while US treasury yields decline 2-3 basis points, a move that is also reflected in TIIE swaps
    • S&P futures are down 0.5%, while most stock indexes in Europe are facing an even bigger decline; declines in oil and copper are also set to contribute to negative sentiment in Latin America
    • The Mexican peso is likely to keep rewarding traders holding short-maturing options, and punishing those eager to fade the move in implied volatility

    Sheinbaum on Monday in responding to a reporter’s question said she did not believe her reform program would significantly weaken the peso or impact financial markets.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/11/2024 – 18:40

  • Illnesses Prompt FDA To Probe Microdosing Chocolate Bars Infused With Mushrooms
    Illnesses Prompt FDA To Probe Microdosing Chocolate Bars Infused With Mushrooms

    Authored by Matt McGregor via The Epoch Times,

    The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said it is investigating a chocolate bar product infused with mushrooms after eight people fell ill and six were hospitalized in Arizona, Indiana, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.

    “People who became ill after eating Diamond Shruumz-brand Microdosing Chocolate Bars reported a variety of severe symptoms including seizures, central nervous system depression (loss of consciousness, confusion, sleepiness), agitation, abnormal heart rates, hyper/hypotension, nausea, and vomiting,” the FDA stated.

    The FDA said it is “working to determine the cause of these illnesses and is considering the appropriate next steps.”

    In microdosing, people ingest small doses of psychedelics like mushrooms in the hopes of gaining insight while maintaining control in daily life. However, the company says its chocolate bars use non-psychedelic mushrooms like Lion’s Mane, Reishi, and Chaga that “have been shown to potentially help with your overall health and cognitive function.”

    Microdosing “is designed to elicit subtle effects that enhance your day-to-day activities, meaning you will not face any vivid visions or similar,” the California-based company says on its blog page, adding that “the mushrooms that we use in our products are completely legal and permitted for use, just like the many other natural supplements and plant extracts used elsewhere in the wellness industry.”

    The mushroom, herb, and root blends form adaptogens, which the company defines as a naturally occurring compound that helps the body “adapt to stress, be it physical, emotional, or environmental.” Common adaptogens are ashwagandha; ginseng; reishi and chaga mushrooms; and holy basil, the company said.

    2018 Farm Bill and Delta-8

    “Diamond Shruumz- brand Microdosing Chocolate Bars can be purchased online and in person at a variety of retail locations nationwide including smoke/vape shops, and at retailers that sell hemp-derived products such as cannabidiol (CBD) or delta-8 tetrahydrocannabinol (delta-8 THC),” the FDA said. “The full list of retailers is currently unknown, and FDA recommends that people do not purchase or consume any flavor of Diamond Shruumz-brand Microdosing Chocolate Bars from any retail or online locations at this time.”

    The 2018 Farm Bill legalized naturally occurring cannabinoids in hemp, which opened the door for alternative THC derivatives like Delta-8 to be sold.

    The FDA defines delta-8 as “a psychoactive substance found in the Cannabis sativa plant, of which marijuana and hemp are two varieties.”

     “Delta-8 THC is one of over 100 cannabinoids produced naturally by the cannabis plant but is not found in significant amounts in the cannabis plant,” the FDA said. “As a result, concentrated amounts of delta-8 THC are typically manufactured from hemp-derived cannabidiol (CBD).”

    The Epoch Times reached out to Diamond-Shruumz for comment.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/11/2024 – 18:20

  • Hezbollah Tries To Down Israeli Fighter Jets With Anti-Aircraft Missiles In First
    Hezbollah Tries To Down Israeli Fighter Jets With Anti-Aircraft Missiles In First

    There’s been another alarming “first” in the ongoing Israel-Hezbollah conflict which has been raging since Oct.7 in parallel with the Gaza war involving Hamas. Israeli media has revealed that a cell of Hezbollah operatives attempted to down an Israeli fighter jet operating over the region. 

    On Sunday the Israeli jet was flying over southern Lebanon when the group launched anti-aircraft missiles at it. The jet escaped unscathed but the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed the incident as a significant development for which it immediately retaliated.

    Illustrative: An Israel Air Force F-16 fighter jet fires off flares. IAF/Flickr

    Times of Israel writes, citing an IDF statement, that “it appeared to be the first use of anti-aircraft missiles in Lebanon against Israeli jets since war broke out eight months ago, and came after several weeks that have seen Hezbollah slowly ratchet up the scale, intensity and reach of hostilities.”

    The IDF indicated that soon on the heels of the anti-aircraft missile attack, a military drone “struck and killed the cell” located not far from the coastal city of Tyre.

    While this appears the first attempt by Hezbollah to take out a piloted warplane, the Lebanese paramilitary group backed by Iran has continued having some success against advanced Israeli drones. Long War Journal observes that:

    Hezbollah is also increasing its use of surface-to-air missiles. On June 10, the group downed an Israeli Hermes 900 drone. This is at least the third Hermes 900 that has been shot down. Another Hermes 900 was downed on June 1. A Hermes 450 was shot down in April and another in February. Hezbollah appears to be having increased success against large- and medium-sized Israeli drones. 

    Many of these Hermes drone downings having been captured on video, and subsequently celebrated by Hezbollah and its supporters…

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    Given Hezbollah is a non-state actor and a paramilitary group, all of this demonstrates the relative sophistication of its weaponry and operations.

    Regional observers have widely pointed out it has doubled its use of drones and anti-tank missiles in the last weeks, and should an Israeli Air Force plane be shot out of the sky, it would portend major escalation at a moment Tel Aviv is already mulling whether to launch an invasion of south Lebanon to root out Hezbollah. 

    As for Israel, it has been hitting back at targets deeper and deeper inside Lebanon. Overnight Monday-Tuesday the IDF struck a site in the distant Baalbek region, which is known to host Hezbollah bases and command units. Israeli jets have also continued to strike ‘Iranian assets’ inside Syria as well, often using Lebanese airspace to avoid Syrian anti-air defenses.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/11/2024 – 18:00

  • The New California Homeless: From American Dream To Poverty & Tyranny
    The New California Homeless: From American Dream To Poverty & Tyranny

    Authored by Roger Canfield via The Epoch Times,

    The once richest state in economic opportunity and liberties has become the poorest state in the nation and one of the least free states in America. (Tyranny competing with New York.)

    How?

    There is a total war on private homeownership, family cars, freeways, and liberty, moving millions of Californians from freedom to dependency to tyranny.

    Authoritarian California laws work tirelessly to drive people out of the mobility and safety of their family cars and their family homes—into concrete cells in high density, high tower apartments, public housing, public transit, and ultimately homelessness.

    In 2023–2024, a package of bills allegedly dealing with “affordable” housing were passed and signed into law. Instead, these bills advanced expensive taxpayer-subsidized public housing by other names. What was missing was any increase in the free-market supply of single-family homes. Gone was the prospect of the American dream continuing to prosper in California.

    How did California get to where it is now?

    It was a long way and a long time coming.

    It started well and ended badly.

    What California Once Was

    California, the forever beacon of wealth from whales to cattle to gold to timber to technology, was always welcoming new immigrants to new opportunities.

    For hundreds of years Spaniards, Mexicans, and Americans came to California from the south and the east seeking economic opportunity and social equality as well as sunshine and mild winters.

    After World War II, the GI Bill, affordable home mortgages, and visionaries built new housing tracts for returning veterans relocated from less comfortable climes and their fixed parochial cultures of the Midwest and the East Coast. Cynics made fun of the “ticky-tacky” tract homes depriving the “deplorable” souls who lived there of the pleasures of their own hearths and homes.

    Bipartisan visionaries also built highways, rapidly linking housing tracts to jobs.

    It took decades to halt the upwardly mobile from acquiring homes, cars, and jobs.

    Eventually, California went from an opportunity society—from blue collar—to white collar in one generation, and then to no collar. It went from widespread prosperity to poorest in the nation in supplies of housing and energy.

    Really, what needs to be fixed?

    Housing Shortage

    According to Hans Johnson of the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), California has a housing shortage of 3.5 million housing units. That’s for a population of 40 million.

    In September 2023, the Orange County Register reported that California’s largest cities, metropolitan areas, were short by over 800,000 units. This 6.5 percent housing shortage was twice the national average.

    With a median home value of $900,000 in 2024, California’s “young”—including 40-to-50-year-olds—cannot afford what few homes are available. And there was no respite in renting. The smallest apartments often cost more than the massive mortgages for which few could qualify.

    Legislation in 2023 to 2024, establishing Below Market Rate (BMR) housing, was rent control by other names.

    For decades, rent control and limits on evictions have discouraged private construction of apartments in California—so unions can do it at high expense, serving the millions who need housing that’s more affordable than an old car or Mommy’s bedroom.

    Homelessness

    Besides mental illness, disease, and drug addiction, the decades-long slow-motion moratorium on building housing has contributed at least in part to the violent deaths of the homeless, out in the open and vulnerable to human predators, as well as medieval diseases.

    Homelessness in California does not stop with drug addicts, the mentally ill, the diseased, and the poor. It ends up on your doorstep and/or your neighbors’.

    Welcome to the New Homeless Californians—children and grandchildren living in old cars, rundown trailer parks, sky-high concrete box apartments, Mommy’s spare bedroom, furnished garages, or backyard spaces under tiny roofs.

    Meanwhile, hotel rooms are offered to illegal immigrants. Our children and vets need not apply.

    Who Is Next?

    But for Proposition 13’s limits on annual increases on property taxes, grandparents might be joining their progeny on the sidelines of society. Nearly half of California’s homeless are over 50 years old.

    Though it’s difficult for older folks, those who can escape from California for the less comfortable climes of baking deserts or steamy states, are doing so. The vacancies left by escapees add little to solve shortages of affordable housing.

    Indeed, California’s relative population loss in the 2020 census dictated a first-ever loss in representation in the U.S. Congress.

    What can people do to continue living in family homes? The most affordable housing is located miles and hours away from jobs.

    Commute Marathons

    Thousands of Californians drive for hours from affordable homes in faraway suburbia, in San Bernardino-Riverside and the Central Valley, to urban jobs in Los Angeles and San Francisco-San Jose, respectively.

    They commute two or three hours a day from the Central Valley to the Bay Area; 80,000 drive over the Altamont Pass to and from San Joaquin County and the Bay Area. Seventy-five percent drive alone to jobs in San Jose, Fremont, or Pleasanton.

    Virtually none, 2.5 to 3 percent, take public transit, a bus, or a train.

    How Did This Happen?

    Local government building codes prevent families from building modest housing for their elderly parents or children on their own private property.

    Laws reduce private homeownership, highways, and cars—and instead substitute public transit and public housing. They limit suburban growth and the number of cars and highways getting people to and from home and work. This reduces the liberties and choices of citizens.

    So most housing shortages and long commutes are the direct result of public policies intended to eliminate “sprawling” suburbs with their “ticky-tacky” housing tracts. Low to no parking compels you to “choose” to give up your car too.

    Reducing Housing

    The high building fees, California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA), and other environmental policies have driven housing prices sky-high and caused housing supplies to be far short of what’s needed.

    Building fees reach $50,000 before a single shovel breaks ground on a single-family home.

    The net result of the environmental assault on affordable housing and highways is more greenhouse gas emissions from auto emissions—longer commutes and traffic congestion.

    Legislation in 2023 to 2024 exempted CEQA requirements but added others, producing up to 40 percent more expensive “prevailing [union] wage” constructed housing; in effect, public housing. Those over 50 units required union-sanctioned apprenticeship training and health care. Educational and religious institutions were mandated to provide social services—childcare and community centers for mere handfuls of tenants.

    Public Housing

    There is also the return of discredited public housing “projects,” high-rise Soviet and Beijing style.

    High-density housing promotes crime, social disorder, and disease. Life mimics rats in cages, filthy and frightened with lives that are cruel, nasty, and short.

    San Diego’s 50-story residential tower will likely lack thug-free elevators.

    In June 2024, Senate Bill 469, which would have permitted public housing projects without voter approval, was dropped.

    Bad Roads

    California’s potholes compete with those of Bangladesh and New York’s West Side Highway. Bad roads destroy evil automobiles.

    From 1990 to 2019, the State of California in Proposition 111, SB-1, and Proposition 69 heavily taxed gasoline, cars, and trucks, promising to build and repair long lists of roads and bridges in return.

    In 2018, Proposition 6 sought to rescind the latest gas tax theft. An opposition political campaign said that unsafe bridges would go unrepaired and kill people if the taxes were repealed. Taxpayers supported keeping high gas taxes to build desperately needed roads and bridges.

    Jon Coupal of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association said it was all a smoke screen written in disappearing ink.

    California has the nation’s highest “gas pump” gasoline taxes per gallon, e.g., “cap and trade” tax on top of gasoline tax per gallon.

    In October 2019, gasoline was a full dollar per gallon above the national average. By 2024, the difference approached two dollars per gallon.

    Similarly, drivers pay ever-increasing bridge tolls, decades after the Bay Bridge and Golden Gate Bridge bonds were paid off in 1971.

    Highway users pay for the benefits they were promised—a fair tax, an honest tax. They have paid high taxes for worse than nothing.

    Though long planned and promised, very few roads and bridges are built. State Senator and accountant John Moorlach said that California diverted 80 percent of bonds to other purposes over three decades.

    Grand Theft Auto

    Gas taxes and highway bonds to build “freeways” and bridges are stolen to subsidize public transit no one rides very far—empty trains, light rail, Amtrak, and buses.

    High taxes on gasoline, coupled with bad roads and stolen revenue, are grand theft auto. By 2018, only optimists would say California had the ninth worst highways.

    The offered alternative was worse.

    California pays registered owners to get “clunker” cars—affordable transportation—off its roads and get onto public transit.

    Public Transit

    Since 1965, Los Angeles has been seeking mass rapid public transit. In 2024, public transit is routinely claimed to reduce congestion, though it carries only 3 percent or so of all passenger traffic in California.

    Command and control of autos does nothing about traffic congestion. However, it does drive citizens out of their cars into cattle cars rife with crime.

    The push for higher-density housing seeks to sustain public transit, which 80 to 95 percent of urbanites avoid if they can. Converting entire residential neighborhoods into multi-family lots would destroy proud old neighborhoods of family and friends.

    Private cabs and Ubers competing with public transit are overregulated.

    Reducing Vehicle Miles Traveled

    Policies have aimed to reduce vehicle miles traveled (VMT) as a means of saving planet earth from climate change (whether cold or hot).

    Policy progress is measured by cars not owned and commuter vehicle miles not traveled.

    Making suburban housing unaffordable and unreachable is helpful in reducing miles traveled. Do not build the houses and highways, and they will not come and go.

    Boutique Gasoline

    California insists on having its own seasonal blends of gasoline.

    The replacement blends contain ethanol made from corn, and they faithfully continue to reduce VMT per gallon. More gallons must be burned to equal the mileage of ordinary gasoline.

    Killing Competition Drives Gasoline Prices Higher

    Boutique gasoline drove 10 older oil refineries out of business from 1985 to 1995. In 1982, the state had 30 gasoline-producing refineries. There were 11 to 14 by various counts in 2015 to 2023.

    Due to efforts to eliminate leaking gasoline tanks, California regulated big oil and little oil gasoline stations. Independent station owners could not afford the years of delay and millions of dollars to replace older tanks. Facing bankruptcy, small businesses quit.

    Driven out of business, independents became only 15 percent of 10,000 California stations.

    By 2024, no California Energy Commission statistics on independent gasoline stations could be found on its website. They were well hidden or disappeared from history.

    While heavy metals and solvent-borne petroleum oils smell bad, there is little evidence that their concentration in water is a health risk when they are measured in parts per billion and trillion.

    The independent gasoline stations once competed on gasoline prices with Big Oil. Gasoline was 25 cents a gallon in 1960. With independents still in business, gasoline might have been about $2.15 in 2019.

    As for housing, the answer is supply. That requires free market competition—deregulation.

    And a last hope, other than escaping California in an expensive U-Haul trailer, is a voter revolt like those that have occurred in parental rights and school choice and the one that is impending in recriminalization of crime in our stores and on our streets.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/11/2024 – 17:40

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Jun 11

Today’s News 11th June 2024

  • Germany Has Begun Dumping Migrants In Poland
    Germany Has Begun Dumping Migrants In Poland

    By Grzegorz Adamczyk of RMX.news

    Aleksandra Fedorska who works for independent radio WNET and news outlet Biznes Alert has reported that migrants are being handed over to Polish border guards by German officers and are then transferred to hostels in bordering areas.

    According to her, many of the migrants have told staff that they arrived in Germany from the Netherlands, Austria and other countries, rather than via Poland. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The Polish journalist asked German federal police for data on illegal migrants on the border with Poland. According to the data produced, Germany has sent back 3,500 migrants out of the 5,600 people who are alleged to have crossed from Poland into Germany illegally.

    “From Jan. 1 to April 30, 2024, the federal police registered a total of 5,621 people who illegally crossed the Polish-German border. Of these, 3,578 people were returned to Poland,” wrote Fedorska on her account on X.

    The EU migration pact, which will come into force in 2026, makes a provision for member states to choose whether to receive relocated illegal migrants or pay €20,000 for every migrant they refuse. 

    Migration is a key issue for voters in three German eastern states this autumn. Germany makes no secret of its hope that the migration pact will enable it to reduce the number of migrants on its territory. 

    Continue reading at RMX.news

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/11/2024 – 02:00

  • Past Informs The Present
    Past Informs The Present

    Authored by Howell Keiser via RealClearHistory,

    The work of the eighteenth-century English economist Thomas Malthus has been famously used to defend the indefensible. Malthus’s warning of the dangers of overpopulation, labor redundancy, and environmental degradation in urban-industrial societies have served as the basis for programs ever since that are aimed at curtailing political liberty.

    Today, World Economic Forum (WEF) founder Klaus Schwab has addressed the problems of industrialization and population redundancy in highly Malthusian ways. With the advent of artificial intelligence and other new technologies, Schwab has stated that employees are bound to “face redundancy unless they can migrate to a new position with an organization.”

    Yuval Noah Harari, a key WEF advisor, likewise agrees that technological advancements have created an atmosphere where a sizable decrease in the world’s population will happen in the next decades. Harari has noted that “these technologies will increasingly make redundant and will make it possible to replace the people.” Replaced people, he adds, will become “useless eaters,” straining both subsistence and the global footprint.

    Antebellum political economists at major Southern universities instructed students – future southern leaders – in these Malthusian ideas in a completely different context than our own. Like Schwab, Harari, and the WEF, leading Southern intellectuals at that time fostered an intense commitment to an anti-democratic philosophy invested in the regulation of human populations, movement, political independence, and economic freedom.

    According to the historian Eugene Genovese, slaveholders embraced Malthusianism, because they “viewed with foreboding the laws of diminishing returns in agriculture … and of the tendency of population geometrically to outstrip subsistence.” Southern apologists concluded, Genovese writes, that in an industrialized free labor society “‘the masses of mankind’ are inescapably ground up if they did not rise with fearful violence to destroy the social classes that imposed misery upon them.” It was for this reason that slave apologist Daniel Hundley believed Malthus’s writings to be a “great science” for shaping society.

    William and Mary President Thomas R. Dew, a notable apologist for slavery, also made these arguments prominent in his defense of the “peculiar institution.” Dew postulated that if Southern society gave way to Northern industrialization, “the powerfully elastic spring of our rapidly increasing numbers … shall be crowded into our manufactories and commercial cities – then will come the great and fearful pressure upon the engine.” Whereas Northern industrialism hastened a degraded “rural landscape,” giving way “to factories, tenants, and large cities,” Dew contended that slaveholders believed their agricultural society achieved a perfect balance between populations and resources.

    Like antebellum Southerners who, according to historian David Silkenat, used the fear of “environmental destruction” to elevate their low population agrarian philosophy, environmentalists today see the “impact of population” and industrialization as combining to “deplete natural resources and degrade the environment.” Population and industrial growth, therefore, must be controlled.

    But how can this be achieved? Vice President Kamala Harris stated that “when we invest in clean energy, and electric vehicles, and reduce population, more of our children can breathe clean air and drink clean water.” Of course, Harris leaves the best means of implementing depopulation and regulating economic freedom unanswered.

    Ultimately, the perspective put forward by Vice President Harris is not entirely different in principle from some of the solutions offered by leading slaveholders. They endeavored to limit urban industrialization, mocked urban boosters as un-Southern, and posited that the best way to regulate populations was through eugenics – “manipulate the sex ratio.”

    The issue with Malthusianism, both past and present, is obvious. How could population and industrial reduction occur if not by curtailing private industry, economic freedom, and an individual’s reproductive autonomy? If accepted wholesale, our nation’s tradition of political liberty would be shoved aside for a program based on a very different set of principles.

    Antebellum Southern history teaches us that this ideology gives rise to anti-democratic philosophies opposed to bodily freedom, economic liberty, and political independence. The language of collapse inherent in this ideology serves as a powerful tool in undermining the power of individuals to enjoy life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness on their own terms. It is therefore useful to see the Malthusianism of the pre-Civil War South as a warning. After all, the past often informs the present.

    Howell Keiser is a Post-Doctoral Research Associate at the University of Virginia and is a fellow with the Jack Miller Center.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/10/2024 – 23:45

  • 'Just The Tip?'
    ‘Just The Tip?’

    The term “guilt tipping” is making the rounds in light of a rising trend in tipping culture.

    As Statista’s Anna Fleck reports, according to a survey of six countries by Statista Consumer Insights in 2021, this feeling of resistance to the expectation that consumers need to tip was highest in Sweden. There, more than four in ten people said that tipping should not be expected.

    Infographic: Where’s the Tipping Point? | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    In the United Kingdom, the share of people who thought that tipping shouldn’t be a certainty was similarly high, at 41 percent.

    Meanwhile, this figure dropped for those in the United States and Italy, with 22 percent and 18 percent, respectively.

    “Tip fatigue”, as it’s now known, appears to be growing.

    According to a recent report by CNBC, nearly three quarters of U.S. adults now think tipping has gotten out of control.

    The following chart, also based on Pew’s findings, shows when Americans typically tip and when they don’t, providing a little bit of guidance for those struggling to keep up with modern tipping culture.

    Infographic: 'Tip Creep' vs. 'Tip Fatigue': Americans' Tipping Habits | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    This shift is at least partly being attributed to the multiple effects of inflation, shrinkflation and tipflation.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/10/2024 – 23:25

  • Supreme Court To Hear Case About Facebook Data-Harvesting Incident
    Supreme Court To Hear Case About Facebook Data-Harvesting Incident

    Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The Supreme Court on June 10 agreed to look at a large shareholder lawsuit that claims Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc. deceived investors regarding a data-harvesting controversy that involved Cambridge Analytica, a political consulting firm.

    The U.S. Supreme Court in Washington on May 29, 2024. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times)

    The Supreme Court’s eventual ruling in the case could have an impact on corporate disclosure standards going forward.

    The case involves a private securities fraud-related class action arising out of the now-defunct UK-based Cambridge Analytica’s “wrongful acquisition and misuse of Facebook user data,” according to Facebook’s filing with the nation’s highest court.

    Meta agreed in December 2022 to pay out $725 million to settle a class-action proceeding that said the company permitted third parties, including Cambridge Analytica, to gain access to as many as 87 million users’ personal information. The incident was made public in 2018.

    Cambridge Analytica previously worked for then-candidate Donald Trump’s successful presidential campaign in 2016, and had access to personal data from millions of Facebook accounts for purposes of targeting and profiling voters. The account holders did not consent and had their data harvested by means of an app.

    The scandal led to government investigations and Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg was called to testify before Congress.

    In 2019, Facebook agreed to pay $5 billion to resolve a U.S. Federal Trade Commission probe into its privacy practices and $100 million to settle a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission proceeding that alleged it misled investors about the misuse of their data.

    At the same time, Meta is being investigated by the European Union for possible breaches of child safety rules on its Facebook and Instagram platforms.

    The Supreme Court granted the petition for certiorari, or review, in Facebook Inc. v. Amalgamated Bank, in an unsigned order.

    No justices dissented and the court didn’t explain its decision. At least four of the nine justices must vote to grant the petition for it to advance to the oral argument stage.

    The Supreme Court will examine whether a federal appeals court erred in allowing the multi-billion dollar lawsuit to proceed premised on allegations that Facebook, as the company was known at the time, inflated share prices by failing to provide adequate disclosure that its user data would be misused.

    The investors claim that the controversy contributed to two 2018 price drops that led to the company losing more than $200 billion in market capitalization.

    The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit ruled against Facebook in the case at hand in October 2023.

    Facebook is asking the Supreme Court to dismiss the lawsuit.

    The federal district court threw out the plaintiffs’ claims three times but the 9th Circuit revived the claims, which Facebook said in its petition “adopted extreme outlier positions.”

    “The Ninth Circuit’s decision will light a beacon for class-action lawsuits that would be dismissed in any other circuit,” the petition stated.

    The respondent, Amalgamated Bank, argued the circuit court decision was correct and the Supreme Court should reject the appeal.

    “There is no circuit conflict,” the bank said in a brief.

    The 9th Circuit “applies the same rule as the other circuits Facebook cites: a statement is misleading if it treats a material risk as hypothetical when the risk has already materialized.”

    The Supreme Court is expected to hear Facebook Inc. v. Amalgamated Bank in its new term that begins in October.

    Meanwhile, the Supreme Court justices are currently deliberating two cases that deal with social media platforms.

    Supreme Court justices seemed skeptical of state arguments on March 18 that the federal government was wrong to communicate with social media platforms about public health issues during the recent pandemic.

    At the same time, during oral argument in Murthy v. Missouri, the states argued that the federal government strong-armed social media companies into censoring disfavored views on important public issues such as side effects related to the COVID-19 vaccine and the government-imposed lockdowns. Applying this kind of pressure violates the First Amendment, the states argued.

    Dr. Vivek Murthy is the U.S. surgeon general. The state of Missouri and other parties sued the federal government for alleged censorship by pressuring social media companies to suppress certain content.

    On Feb. 26, Florida and Texas told the Supreme Court they should be allowed to regulate how social media platforms moderate content. During oral arguments, the justices seemed to be grasping for a new rule they could use to apply free speech principles to online discussions.

    At stake is the right of individual Americans to freely express themselves online along with the right of social media platforms to make editorial decisions about the content they host. Both rights are protected by the First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.

    The challenge to the Florida statute regulating social media is Moody v. NetChoice LLC; the challenge to the Texas law is NetChoice LLC v. Paxton.

    Both states’ laws impose restrictions on deplatforming users and force platforms to explain their content moderation decisions, a mandate the platforms consider to be overly burdensome.

    The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit struck down part of the Florida statute, finding that “with minor exceptions, the government can’t tell a private person or entity what to say or how to say it.”

    Even the “biggest” platforms are “private actors whose rights the First Amendment protects … [and] their so-called content-moderation decisions constitute protected exercises of editorial judgment.”

    The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit took the opposite tack, finding the Texas constitutional and rejecting the “idea that corporations have a freewheeling First Amendment right to censor what people say.”

    Rulings in these two cases are expected by the end of June.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/10/2024 – 23:05

  • $82,000 Gold Nugget Stolen From Long Beach Coin Show
    $82,000 Gold Nugget Stolen From Long Beach Coin Show

    We guess gold demand really is picking up…

    In Long Beach this past week, a monster-sized gold nugget that is worth $82,000 was stolen from a coin expo and now, ironically, $10,000 is being offered as a reward for its safe return, according to Fox 11 Los Angeles. 

    Bob Campbell, a Utah-based coin dealer and owner of the gold nugget, reported a theft at his booth, captured by security cameras. The video revealed a man exploiting a flaw in the display case to steal the nugget, which weighs about 27 ounces.

    “He’s trying locks, looks to see who’s watching,” Campell told Fox watching the video. 

    Approximately 30 seconds after tampering with the case, the thief concealed the nugget, casually checked his surroundings, and left the scene.

    Campbell said this incident marks his most significant loss at a coin show, emphasizing not just the monetary worth of the gold, but its historical value as well.

    The nugget, unearthed during the California Gold Rush near the Oregon border, is a rare survivor from a time when most such finds were melted down.

    With the nugget’s unique history at risk of being lost if melted down, Campbell is hopeful that public recognition of the thief from the footage will lead to the recovery of the artifact.

    He concluded, lamenting: “The bigger the nugget, the more they’re worth. It’s not uncommon to see them go for two, three, even four times the gold value.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/10/2024 – 22:45

  • After Texas Win, School-Choice Groups Eye Other Red States
    After Texas Win, School-Choice Groups Eye Other Red States

    Authored by Susan Crabtree via RealClearPolitics,

    The political ground shifted in Texas last week, and the impact of the electoral shakeup could send aftershocks across the nation for months, if not years, to come.

    A wave of Republican incumbents fell to conservative challengers in the Texas House in last week’s primary run-offs, turning an already red legislature crimson and threatening the state House GOP leader’s hold on power. Those who helped lead the intra-party Texas fight now have their sights set on defeating centrist Republicans in other red states, including Tennessee, Georgia, Idaho, and South Carolina.

    A concerted joint effort by Gov. Greg Abbott, outside groups, and a deep-pocketed donor flipped the seats of 14 Republicans who had opposed Abbott’s school-choice measure – a state record.

    Abbott’s effort to pass school choice died last fall when 21 House Republicans – mostly from rural districts – voted to strip a voucher program out of a larger education bill. Of those 21 voucher opponents, 15 now aren’t returning. The coalition defeated six GOP incumbents in March, then three more in last week’s run-offs. Additionally, the group filled four of the five retiring Republican seats with voucher supporters, and then a voucher backer won a special election run-off.  

    The leading factor in these Republicans’ historic defeats hasn’t been making the most national headlines or even the most local news. It’s unrelated to Abbott’s border fight with President Biden, state Attorney General Ken Paxton’s resentment over efforts to impeach him, or even widespread local protests over the state’s skyrocketing property taxes.  

    Those issues all played out in the election, but school choice was far and away the most lethal campaign issue across the Lone Star state. Its impact was especially potent considering the totality of political spending and blitz of advertisements focused on school vouchers and related issues dominating the Texas airwaves and inundating inboxes.

    Abbott was determined to make good on his threats to boot anti-school voucher Republicans who have blocked his ambitious crusade to give parents taxpayer-funded options to educate their children outside public schools. After several challengers he backed won their run-offs last week, the governor declared victory and announced that the House “now has enough votes to pass school choice.”

    “While we did not win every race we fought in, the overall message from this year’s primaries is clear: Texans want school choice,” said Abbott. “Opponents can no longer ignore the will of the people.”

    House Speaker David Phelan, who supported the effort to scrap the school voucher language from the bill last fall, managed to eke out a run-off win by less than 400 votes. But that razor-thin victory likely dooms his chances of holding onto his leadership post next year.

    On the national level, Abbott is best known for his immigration showdown with President Biden, which included the deployment of thousands of Texas Guard members to shut down the border and the decision to send busloads of illegal immigrants from the southern border to places like New York, Washington, D.C., and Texas.

    Texans, however, are well aware that Abbott has made school vouchers his top priority, pouring more political capital into the vouchers than any other issue in his eight years in office. The sometimes-cautious governor campaigned for reelection on the issue in 2022 and made universal education saving accounts a central theme of his most recent State of the State addresses. The ESAs would use taxpayer funds to provide parents a voucher worth $10,500 a year per student to use at a private school.

    Texas teacher unions have staunchly and successfully opposed school-choice bills for years. They say the programs deprive public schools of essential funds and mainly benefit wealthy families who are already sending their children to private schools.

    The Texas chapter of the American Federation of Teachers called the school-choice movement a “scam” which eliminates transparency and public accountability.

    “When vouchers strip more money away from our already strapped neighborhood schools, the only people who will benefit are the richest parents, who are already sending their children to private schools. For everyone else, vouchers will crowd classrooms and put every member of the school community who keep the hubs of our communities running on the chopping block. And it’s the hardest hit, and often more rural communities, that get left further and further behind,” the Texas AFT wrote in a blog post.

    Abbott and his allies vigorously rejected those arguments, countering that most parents desperately want and need the funds to choose the best educational path for their children, especially while public school test scores in Texas and across the nation are continuing to fall. He then redoubled their efforts to pass his voucher plan.

    The Texas legislature cannot vote on any bill until 60 days into its legislative session unless the governor declares the measure an “emergency item.” Abbott gave the voucher issue this expedited status. He held two special sessions devoted to passing the initiative, including the one last fall in which opponents, including Phelan, stripped it from a bill providing $6 billion in additional funds to Texas public schools. Those funds would have boosted teacher pay and other public school funding – key negotiating chips that still failed to attract enough supporters.

    Heading into the fight, opponents were well aware that they could face consequences at the ballot box if they continued to oppose Abbott’s voucher language.

    In response to a ballot question in 2022, 88% of GOP primary voters indicated that they support parents’ “right to select schools, whether public or private, for their children, and the funding should follow the student.” Another poll conducted by the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs in January found that 66% of Republican primary voters said they would be less likely to vote for an incumbent who rejected school choice last year.

    “[Abbott] made it very clear during the special session that there’s an easy way and a hard way,” Dave Carney, the governor’s longtime political strategist, told RealClearPolitics. “The hard way was we’ll pass it in 2025 with a new legislature. They were informed, well-warned.”

    Carney said Abbott has done nearly 100 events on school choice so far this year, cutting television, cable, and digital ads and directing millions of digital impressions to targeted audiences. Abbott’s political action committee also paid for advocates to knock on 400,000 across the state.

    Still, Abbott had some powerful help, what Carney describes as a seamless, collaborative effort.

    “We’re not taking a victory lap yet, because we still have to get through the general election,” he added. “But we’re anticipating to pick up seats.”

    Last fall’s voucher defeat attracted national groups with deep pockets, including the American Federation for Children, a national pro-school choice group, and the Club for Growth, a conservative anti-tax group. Along with Abbott’s PAC, the groups spent a combined $27 million to back pro-voucher challengers against incumbents.

    A big portion of those funds came from Jeff Yass, a Pennsylvania billionaire and national Republican megadonor who strongly supports school vouchers. Worth nearly $30 billion, Yass is a co-founder and managing director of Susquehanna International Group, a Philadelphia-based trading and investment firm. The firm was an early investor in TikTok, which nearly doubled Yass’ net worth in the years since the pandemic when the app’s popularity soared.

    Working with Trump’s education secretary, Betsy DeVos, a longtime proponent of helping parents subsidize private school tuition, Yass has spent tens of millions boosting the issue, channeling $23 million to the DeVos-backed American Federation for Children’s political action committees since 2021.

    In December, Yass cut Abbott’s PAC a $6 million check, the largest single donation in Texas history. He’s also a multi-million dollar donor to the Club for Growth, which has long supported Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Rep. Chip Roy, who represents Austin and San Antonio.

    The Club for Growth, through its School Freedom Fund, spent roughly $4 million in the Texas primary and $4 million more in the run-offs, including $1.5 million against Phelan. David McIntosh, the group’s president, credited Abbott with the leadership to take on his fellow Republicans, who blocked school-choice options for Texas’ 5.4 million public school students.

    “I give Gov. Abbott a lot of kudos for his leadership,” McIntosh said in an interview. “Many Republican governors don’t want to take on sitting members of their own party and would not have done the same … that was a crucial factor in us being able to win.”

    Early in the effort, McIntosh told his team that big victories in Texas would build momentum for similarly aggressive campaigns in other red states, including Tennessee, Georgia, Louisiana, and Indiana.

    “Texas now shows that you can’t be a conservative Republican and oppose education freedom,” he said. “It’s now a marker for whether somebody is a genuine conservative or not. It’s going to be something the Club and our School Freedom Fund champion for years to come.”

    McIntosh says the school choice initiatives align with the group’s conservative economic agenda because giving parents more alternatives to public school creates market pressure in the education system.

    “That benefits the kids,” McIntosh said. “They get a better education, and it benefits the parents who have more control over the resources, and [it] takes the education bureaucracy out of the equation. Schools start operating like a business world, saying, ‘Who’s my customer?’ Right now, they don’t have that pressure.”

    The American Federation for Children’s Victory Fund, another key group in the school-choice fight, spent $7 million on the Texas primary and run-offs alone – boosting Texas challengers’ campaigns and helping establish school choice as a GOP litmus test.  

    “The primary election results in Texas – the Lone Star earthquake – represent the single biggest movement in favor of school choice in modern history, a result that will prove life-changing for countless Texas families,” Tommy Schultz, the group’s CEO, told RCP. “Republicans lost the moment they chose loyalty to unions and corrupt establishment over students.”

    Schultz said he and the coalition of school-choice proponents “anticipate that many other states will remember the Lone Star Earthquake ahead of their own primaries and legislative sessions.”

    “If you’re a candidate or lawmaker who opposes school choice and freedom in education – you’re a target,” he added. “If you’re a champion for parents – we’ll be your shield.”  

    Some Texas insiders are already making comparisons to Colorado’s rapid transformation from a Republican-dominated state in the mid-2000s to a Democratic one over a four-year time frame. For years, progressives have touted their success in Colorado in turning a red state blue, an effort by Democratic politicians and outside groups taking advantage of new campaign finance laws and working with donors willing to commit unprecedented resources to promote progressive policies and win local races.

    In a book titled, “The Blueprint: How Democrats Won Colorado,” the authors hailed the joint effort as a model for creating permanent Democratic majorities across the country.

    Texas was already a solid red state before the school choice fight, but now its legislature has shifted even further to the right, undermining years-long Democratic efforts to cast it as trending purple based on its growing Latino population. Instead, t he school-choice coalition’s Texas successes have sparked a conversation over whether they’ve developed a “redprint” model that can help solidify permanent conservative majorities across the country.

    Yet, Carney points out that Abbott isn’t the first governor to target GOP incumbents opposed to school vouchers. Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds started the trend in 2022 when the Iowa legislature tried to pass school choice but failed by one vote. It was an election year, and Reynolds and school choice advocates challenged six school anti-school choice incumbent lawmakers. They unseated all nine and passed the measure during the next legislative session.

    After the string of defeated GOP incumbents in Texas, other governors are already pledging a similar political litmus test. Late last week, Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee vowed to vet future GOP primary candidates in the next election cycle to determine whether they support school choice, although he didn’t commit to working to defeat Republicans who oppose school choice.

    “This year what I’m talking to candidates about is education freedom and choice for parents,” he told a local broadcast station late last week. “I want to know where new candidates stand on that issue because it’s so important to me, so you’ll see me talking to candidates.”

    Earlier this year, Lee said he expected a school choice “revolution” to take place in Tennessee, but those hopes were dashed in March when a school-choice bill died in the state legislature. But given strong GOP voter support for the issue, the state Republican Party is poised to adopt a strongly worded pro-school-choice platform over the next few months, which will ratchet up the pressure on Republican legislators with a history of opposing voucher programs.

    The Club for Growth and the American Federation for Children are monitoring Tennessee closely to see if Lee will follow in Reynolds’ and Abbott’s footsteps.

    “It’s a hard decision for governors to make, and you hope you can persuade people to do the right thing, and you don’t have to take out incumbents, but I will have to see what they decide to do,” McIntosh said.  

    Yet, the most effective advocate for school choice wasn’t Abbott, Reynolds, or any other GOP governor or outside group, Carney argues. That honor, he says, goes to American Federation of Teachers President Randi Weingarten, who fought children’s return to public school during the COVID pandemic and used the global health crisis to extract union concessions for teachers, sparking a parent revolution in the process.

    “Most families can’t afford to make that choice to give their kids a different option,” Carney remarked, decrying what he called the public education system’s “Praetorian Guard” who try to keep parents at bay while implementing “woke” programs and teaching methods while students’ test scores continue to plummet.

    Susan Crabtree is RealClearPolitics’ national political correspondent.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/10/2024 – 22:25

  • Watch: Mob Loots AutoZone In South LA During Chaotic Street Takeover 
    Watch: Mob Loots AutoZone In South LA During Chaotic Street Takeover 

    The latest chaotic example of California’s criminal and social justice reforms backfiring erupted in South Los Angeles early Monday morning, where a street takeover resulted in a mob of looters ransacking an AutoZone store. 

    Local media outlet KTLA reported that the Los Angeles Police Department received multiple calls of a street takeover at the intersection of Century Boulevard and Hoover Street around 0400 local time. Then, minutes later, a mob of 50 people looted a nearby AutoZone. Officials believe other stores in the area were hit as well. 

    “At least three businesses were hit within a four-mile radius and authorities were working to determine if the crimes were connected,” Fox 11 said.

    Elon Musk commented on the video with “!!.”

    The video is reminiscent of BLM looting scenes several years ago.

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    How long until socialist radical Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez comments on the incident, explaining how the looters were only stealing so they could fix their cars? 

    Several years ago, remember what AoC said during BLM riots, “They feel like they either need to shoplift some bread or go hungry.” 

    The lack of law and order in progressive cities has sparked a nationwide surge in crime and chaos over the years (though not according to the official data that AG Garland so proudly flaunts, but that’s another story).

    According to polls, law-abiding Americans are fed up with progressive policies that are increasingly transforming cities into scenes of the video game Grand Theft Auto.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/10/2024 – 22:05

  • No Better Friend Than Japan Despite Political Distractions
    No Better Friend Than Japan Despite Political Distractions

    Authored by Heino Klinck via RealClearDefense,

    Soon, President Biden will meet with seven of our most important allies and partners at the upcoming G7 summit in Italy, June 13-15. This meeting comes at a pivotal moment: wars in Ukraine and in the Middle East show little signs of stopping, China is becoming more aggressive in the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait and beyond, and the global economy is still suffering from slow growth and inflation. Having just returned from Europe, I encountered a palpable sense of anxiety about America’s current leadership in the world given the widespread failure of deterrence and continued economic malaise. During trying times like these, the United States needs to be seen as standing with like-minded allies to confront common challenges, not just as a leader, but also as an equal partner.

    Photo: U.S. Marines with 12th Marines, 3d Marine Division, and members of the Northern Army, Japan Self- Defense Force, participate in the opening ceremony for exercise Resolute Dragon 22 at Yausubetsu Maneuver Area, Hokkaido, Japan, Oct. 1, 2022. Resolute Dragon 22 is an annual bilateral exercise designed to strengthen the defensive capabilities of the U.S.-Japan Alliance by exercising integrated command and control, targeting, combined arms, and maneuver across multiple domains. (U.S. Marine Corps photo by Lance Cpl. Lorenzo Ducato)

    Japan, as the only Asian G7 member, will attend the G-7 summit in Italy’s Puglia region. In addition to the multilateral discussions, it can be expected that President Biden will have a bilateral meeting with Japan’s Prime Minister Kishida Fumio.

    This will not be the first time these two leaders have met this year. On April 10th, Prime Minister Kishida visited Washington for a rare state visit with President Biden, a testament to the continued significance of our alliance. The meeting concluded with the launch of a new Forum on Defense Industrial Cooperation, Acquisition, and Sustainment led by the Pentagon and Japan’s Ministry of Defense. Shortly after in May, this new initiative produced an agreement between the two governments to collaborate on the Glide Phase Interceptor Cooperative Development. This was an unmistakable sign of our collective resolve to pursue regional deterrence and missile defense together.

    Moreover, the Government of Japan (GoJ) has taken numerous steps recently to align its foreign and defense policies with the U.S., arguably more than any other country:  

    • Japan has committed to doubling its defense budget to 2% of its GDP, which equates to approximately $100 billion annually to bolster Self-Defense Forces and enhance its capabilities in line with U.S. strategic interests.
    • In response to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, Japan has imposed sanctions in coordination with the U.S. demonstrating its commitment to upholding international law and security. Since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Japan has committed nearly $12 billion in aid to Ukraine.
    • Japan’s Official Development Assistance (ODA) amounted to $21 billion in 2022, focusing on global health, climate change, and sustainable development, aligning with U.S. goals to promote global stability and development​.
    • Japan’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) strategy aligns with U.S. efforts to ensure regional stability and counter China’s influence, reflecting shared strategic objectives.

    General Mark Milley, the then Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, lauded this shift from GoJ, saying that “having a powerful Japan, a militarily capable Japan that has a close alliance with the United States and other countries, will go a long way to deterring war” with China. And in the context of China’s increasingly belligerent behaviors, like its recent military exercises meant to intimidate Taiwan, this should be a welcome relief for Washington who knows it cannot do everything on its own to deal with Beijing.

    Despite the unprecedented forward-leaning actions taken by the GoJ to align with the U.S., often at the expense of domestic opposition to increased defense spending, there are distractions that are impacting the alliance emanating from Washington, DC.

    During a recent campaign fundraiser, President Biden likened Japan to Russia and China for being “xenophobic,” a comment that Japan justifiably called “unfortunate.” On the heels of a state visit and during an era of Great Power Competition, one can only wonder how POTUS could compare Japan with the countries of a new arc of authoritarianism.

    Political posturing in the U.S. during an election year also distracts from our critical alliance. During a campaign event, the president opposed the proposed merger between Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel by saying that U.S. Steel must “remain an American steel company that is domestically owned and operated.” On the same day as Kishida’s arrival for the state visit, the Federal Trade Commission announced they opened an investigation into the proposed acquisition. All this while the Congress was debating the future of TikTok in the United States, an unfortunate while hopefully unintentional parallel.

    It is important for Washington to strike the proper balance of international relations and domestic politicking. While much has been accomplished with Japan, we cannot take the relationship for granted at a time when we need more help than ever to counter China. Distractions like the President’s rhetorical gaffes or politicizing commercial deals only serve our adversaries’ objectives.

    As Secretary Austin just said at the Shangri-La conclave, America’s “greatest global strategic advantage” is our alliances.  We should not put that at risk for domestic political gain.

    Heino Klinck was the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for East Asia, 2019-21.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/10/2024 – 21:45

  • UN Security Council Backs Biden's Gaza Ceasefire Plan, Russia Abstains
    UN Security Council Backs Biden’s Gaza Ceasefire Plan, Russia Abstains

    The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has finally agreed on something related to Gaza. On Monday it adopted a US-proposed resolution which gives formal backing to an Israel-Hamas ceasefire plan.

    Fourteen council members voted in favor, Russia abstained, and there were no votes against, allowing it to pass. The draft resolution welcomes the new ceasefire deal currently set before both sides, “which Israel accepted, calls upon Hamas to also accept it, and urges both parties to fully implement its terms without delay and without condition.”

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    Washington immediately began using the UNSC vote to add pressure on Hamas, at a moment Secretary of State Antony Blinken is touring the Middle East in an effort to get all parties to back the ceasefire plan. But crucially Hamas has faulted the Israeli side while holding firm to its longtime demand of a full IDF military withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.

    “We’re waiting on Hamas to agree to the ceasefire deal it claims to want,” US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield told the security council. “With every passing day, needless suffering continues.”

    The newly adopted UN resolution stipulates that “if the negotiations take longer than six weeks for phase one, the ceasefire will still continue as long as negotiations continue.”

    The US-backed plan which Biden has also controversially referred to as Israeli-proposed (despite the Netanyahu government having criticized it as “incomplete”), lays out three phases. The below outlines these proposed stages…

    First Stage

    This stage reportedly includes:

    • A temporary halt to military operations by both sides, with Israeli forces withdrawing to the border areas, including the Gaza Valley – Netzarim axis and Kuwait roundabout.
    • Daily suspension of aerial operations in Gaza for ten hours, extending to 12 hours on days of detainee exchanges.
    • Return of displaced persons to their homes, with a partial Israeli withdrawal from Al-Rashid Street to Salah Al-Din Street starting on the seventh day after Hamas releases seven female detainees.
    • Withdrawal from the Gaza Strip’s center (Netzarim axis and Kuwait Roundabout) by the 22nd day, positioning Israeli forces east of Salah al-Din Road along the border.
    • Humanitarian aid, including 600 trucks per day – including 50 fuel trucks and 300 trucks for the north – will be allowed in from day one, along with necessary supplies to operate essential services and clear rubble.
    • Indirect negotiations for the second phase will begin on the 16th day, focusing on the exchange of remaining Israeli prisoners in Gaza.

    Second Stage

    During this stage, the following actions will take place, according to the document:

    • Declare the restoration of sustainable calm, marking the permanent cessation of military and hostile operations, before the exchange of detainees and prisoners begins.
    • Release all remaining surviving Israeli male detainees, both civilians and soldiers, in exchange for a number of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons and detention centers.
    • Complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip.

    Third Stage

    During this stage, the following actions will take place, according to the document:

    • Exchange all body parts and remains of the deceased from both sides after identification.
    • Begin the Gaza Strip reconstruction plan, lasting 3 to 5 years, covering homes, civilian facilities, and infrastructure. This process will be supervised by countries and organizations, including Egypt, Qatar, and the United Nations.
    • Open border crossings to facilitate the movement of residents and transportation of goods.

    Meanwhile both warring sides have continued to blame the other for blocking finalization of a ceasefire deal. Hamas says Israeli leaders don’t actually want a truce, and Israeli says it is Hamas thwarting the possibility of peace.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/10/2024 – 21:25

  • A Nationwide Teacher Shortage Is Costing Schools $4 Billion Per Year
    A Nationwide Teacher Shortage Is Costing Schools $4 Billion Per Year

    Statewide teacher attendance in Nevada has fallen to the lowest in a decade, echoing a similar problem seen at school districts all over the United States, in places like New York and Connecticut to Chicago, Bloomberg wrote this past week.

    According to staffing firm Kelly Services Inc., teacher absenteeism has risen from 6% during the Covid pandemic to 10% currently, based on data from 40 states.

    The report says that this increase poses a significant economic challenge for school districts, especially as they attempt to recover from educational disruptions caused by lockdowns.

    Bloomberg estimates that if 8% of the 3.2 million full-time public school teachers are absent, it could cost districts approximately $25.6 million daily, totaling about $4.4 billion each school year. This financial strain is expected to worsen with the cessation of federal stimulus funding in September.

    Marguerite Roza, director of the Edunomics Lab at Georgetown University, commented: “We hear from financial leaders that they’re worried about it, the cost can be from $100 to $250 a day for a sub.”

    “If students who missed a year of learning are now missing 10% because of chronic absence, and another 10% because their teacher is chronically absent, they are never going to get back on track,” she continued. 

    Educational leaders are highlighting a troubling trend in teaching, attributing increased teacher absenteeism to challenging work conditions, behavioral issues among students, dwindling resources, and declining salaries amidst rising inflation.

    According to Bloomberg/Yahoo, fewer individuals are pursuing education degrees, leading to a smaller pool of potential teachers. Before the pandemic, teachers maintained a high attendance rate of 95%, typically missing nine out of 187 school days annually.

    However, recent federal data indicates that teacher absentee rates have escalated post-pandemic, with nearly three-quarters of public schools observing a rise during the 2021-22 school year.

    Nevada is one of few states monitoring teacher attendance, unlike most of the top ten largest states. Post-pandemic shifts in sick time usage have affected attendance rates, as seen in Clark County’s 76% rate for the 2022-23 school year.

    Significant teacher absences, such as those in Connecticut where teachers missed an average of 13 days, correlate with declining student performance and increasing achievement gaps.

    In New York City and Chicago, teacher absences have risen markedly, influencing educational outcomes and prompting responses like Illinois’ $45 million grant program to address teacher shortages through incentives and support programs. Despite these measures, challenges persist, exacerbated by low pay, high attrition, and a shrinking pool of teachers.

    This national issue is compounded by a lack of substitutes, adding strain on remaining staff and impacting the educational environment, now fraught with political tensions and heightened stress from behavioral issues.

    Danette Stokes, a teacher and president of the local union chapter, the United Education Association of Shelby County in Tennessee, concluded: “The day to day operations are tiresome. A lot of teachers don’t get the support they need when it comes to discipline, we have to do what is best for us.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/10/2024 – 21:25

  • USDA Recalls More Than 20,000 Pounds Of Frozen Beef Products
    USDA Recalls More Than 20,000 Pounds Of Frozen Beef Products

    Authored by Lorenz Duchamps via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    More than 20,000 pounds of beef products have been recalled because the meat was improperly inspected when shipped into the United States, according to U.S. regulators.

    South American Meat Inc. is recalling various frozen raw beef products because they were not presented to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service for import reinspection. (Courtesy of U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service)

    The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced in a news release on June 4 that California-based importer, South American Meat Inc., recalled approximately 20,111 pounds of various frozen raw beef products because the items were not presented for reinspection to the USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) upon entry from Uruguay.

    “The problem was discovered during routine FSIS surveillance activities of imported products, and FSIS determined that the products were not presented for FSIS import reinspection,” the agency stated.

    According to the USDA, the beef was imported from the South American country “on or around March 17” before it was shipped to distributors, restaurants, retailers, and institutions in Arizona, California, Oregon, and Washington.

    Neither the company nor the USDA has received any reports of anyone experiencing any adverse reactions from eating the products.

    However, FSIS expressed concern earlier this week that some of the products may already be in the freezers of consumers, distributors, restaurants, or retailers.

    “Any individual or entities who have purchased these products are urged not to consume or serve them. These products should be thrown away or returned to the place of purchase,” the agency said.

    Furthermore, FSIS advised that consumers should contact or visit their health care providers if they are worried about any adverse reactions from the product.

    The following products—all marked Frigorífico Casa Blanca S.A.—are affected by the recall:

    • Various weight cardboard cases labeled as “Frigorífico Casa Blanca S.A. AGUJA CHUCK ROLL” with case code JP0001 containing individually vacuum-sealed products displaying “FRICASA”;
    • Various weight cardboard cases labeled as “Frigorífico Casa Blanca S.A. ASADO SIN HUESO SHORT RIB” with case code JP0002 containing individually vacuum-sealed products displaying “FRICASA”;
    • Various weight cardboard cases labeled as “Frigorífico Casa Blanca S.A. BIFE ANCHO CUBE ROLL” with case code JP0003 containing individually vacuum-sealed products displaying “FRICASA”;
    • Various weight cardboard cases labeled as “Frigorífico Casa Blanca S.A. BIFE ANGOSTO STRIPLOIN” with case code JP0004 containing individually vacuum-sealed products displaying “FRICASA”;
    • Various weight cardboard cases labeled as “Frigorífico Casa Blanca S.A. BIFE GRANDE DE VACÍO FLAP MEAT” with case code JP0005 containing individually vacuum-sealed products displaying “FRICASA”;
    • Various weight cardboard cases labeled as “Frigorífico Casa Blanca S.A. CARNAZA DE PALETA SHOULDER CLOD” with case code JP0006 containing individually vacuum-sealed products displaying “FRICASA”;
    • Various weight cardboard cases labeled as “Frigorífico Casa Blanca S.A. LOMO TENDERLOIN” with case code JP0007 containing individually vacuum-sealed products displaying “FRICASA”;
    • Various weight cardboard cases labeled as “Frigorífico Casa Blanca S.A. MARUCHA OYSTER BLADE” with case code JP0008 containing individually vacuum-sealed products displaying “FRICASA”;
    • Various weight cardboard cases labeled as “Frigorífico Casa Blanca S.A. PECHO BRISKET” with case code JP0009 containing individually vacuum-sealed products displaying “FRICASA”.

    In addition, the items bear the Uruguay establishment number “58” on the shipping box and on the vacuum-sealed product packaging, according to the USDA.

    People with questions about the recall can call the USDA Meat and Poultry Hotline at 888-674-6854 or contact South American Meat Inc. accountant and logistics director Tim Yu at 310-720-5258.

    From NTD News

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/10/2024 – 21:05

  • Pro-Palestinian Protests Invade Wall Street
    Pro-Palestinian Protests Invade Wall Street

    Parts of Wall Street are currently under siege as hundreds of Pro Palestinian protesters flood the financial district of Lower Manhattan. The demonstrators are demanding an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. This comes after protesters surrounded the White House on Saturday. 

    “Hamas and Hezbollah flags in lower Manhattan. Believe people when they tell you who they are,” one X user said. 

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    A banner says “Long Live October 7th,” referring to the date that Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel. 

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    Who is Samidoun?

    We’ve covered Samidoun in detail and provided links to other organizations fueling chaos in the US: 

    Here are more scenes from the financial district. 

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    On Saturday, thousands of demonstrators surrounded the White House, demanding ‘genocide Joe‘ to hold the red line and end the Israel-Hamas war. 

    Given the rise in protests and Israel’s admission that the conflict might extend well into the second half of the year, we anticipate the continuation of demonstrations into the summer months. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/10/2024 – 20:45

  • The Tension Between The 'Centralized Manager Class' & Reality Is "Explosive"
    The Tension Between The ‘Centralized Manager Class’ & Reality Is “Explosive”

    Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

    If Wishes Were Fishes – a Teachable Intermezzo

    “Together we can finish the job.” 

    – “Joe Biden”

    This is the most significant reality of the world picture now: the wishes of the manager class are going in one direction while the actual dynamics of economy and politics go in the opposite direction. The managers wish for their management of systems to become as centralized and top-down as possible; but the very systems they manage are breaking down and seeking to reorganize at smaller scale, distributed locally. The tension entailed is explosive.

    Forgive me for reiterating a basic principle driving this moment in history: everything organized at the gigantic scale is steaming toward failure: big governments, giant companies, the huge capital investment firms, global shipping, energy production, chain retailing, mass motoring, big electricity, big medicine, big education, big anything. They are all fixing to fail while our politicians and economists make plans based on consolidating them into one super-gigantic mega-system that will run flawlessly on computer tech magic.

    The failures of each giant system will only amplify and ramify the failures in all the other systems.

    Take that as axiomatic.

    For instance, the fantastic failures in higher education now on display, largely due to the Marxian defeat of excellence, will implant a generation of incompetents in all hierarchies of management. That will result in an insidious matrix of bad decision-making. The Pareto 80-20 principle will ensure that 80-percent of all institutional energy will focus on propping up failing institutions with bad decisions that add up to broken business models (while 20-percent goes into actually carrying-out the bad decisions as policy). That explains how Pete Buttigieg’s Department of Transportation spent $7.5-billion to build seven electric car charging stations.

    Similarly, if you have an urgent medical problem, the 80-percent of administrative clerks in your primary care doctor’s overgrown practice (with an assist from the health insurance company cohorts they must coordinate with) will actually manage to delay your treatment as long as possible, with a fair chance of disallowing it altogether. And if you happen to get treatment, there’s also an excellent chance you will be misdiagnosed and subjected to iatrogenic injury.

    The 80-20 principle explains the stupendous mismanagement of the Covid-19 event, especially the “marketing” of mRNA vaccines as miracle remedies that turned out to be the opposite of beneficial. The result of that chain of bad decision-making will ensure that any widespread health crisis arising from the long-term effects of the Pfizer and Moderna Covid vaccines will destroy the hospital system. (It is already underway.) You can extrapolate that grandiose failure of competence to the World Health Organization and its efforts to orchestrate a new pandemic crisis.

    You might have noticed that it is increasingly difficult to get replacement parts for any machine, most particularly cars. That’s a symptom of failure in several integrated systems that are breaking down now: the manufacture of products in distant lands, price disorder in the container-ship business, the collapse of the US trucking system (and with it, the just-in-time inventory model), and the inability of auto dealers to find competent mechanics (while the sinking middle class can no longer afford to buy the cars they sell under the most liberal financing schemes). Expect all that to intensify.

    You’ll see similar dysfunction in the system that delivers food to the people of our country. Even as currently operating, with the supermarkets amply stocked, the triumph of poor decision-making has led to 80-percent of the products sold being some form of processed corn syrup and GMO grains marketed as “fun” snack-foods that have destroyed the health of a great many citizens (and overwhelmed the medical system with chronic illness).  The breakdown of the US food system is now proceeding with idiotic policy from our government (actually every government in Western Civ is doing it) undermining farm operations, and most especially small farms, with egregious regulation. The pretext for this is the delusional hysteria over “climate change.” It gives the managers something to manage badly.

    The large-scale farmers are also affected, of course, but their business model is already broken in other ways, mainly the gigantic cost of their “inputs” — fuel, fertilizer, herbicides and pesticides, and borrowed money to get the crop in. Political and economic management has arranged matters so that, in theory, the failed small farmers will be consolidated into the giant farms (which are also failing), but you can see how that’s going to work out. Before long, all farms will be unable to produce and, after a period of food shortage, perhaps famine, you will see the emergent reorganization of farming at the small scale minus the dead-weight of government regulation.

    The dead weight will be gone because government will have destroyed its own legitimacy by making so many bad decisions that led to ramified systems failure of the kind described above. Government will also be starved operationally by the failure of its funding system (taxation) as its economists and their managerial counterparts in finance destroy our money via their remorseless attempts to create fake capital by main force (Modern Monetary Theory).

    The upshot of all this is that actual dynamics in human affairs matter more than the grandiose wishes of mega-managers.

    They can wish for maximum control of everything all they want, but history is taking the world in another direction. Our broken systems for food, medicine, education, commerce will self-reorganize after a period of uncomfortable disorder, perhaps even epic disaster. I hope you see how this works.

    *  *  *

    Support his blog by visiting Jim’s Patreon Page or Substack

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/10/2024 – 20:25

  • Israel Releases Intense Bodycam Video Of Hostage Rescues In Gaza
    Israel Releases Intense Bodycam Video Of Hostage Rescues In Gaza

    On Monday Israeli forces released dramatic video of the moment a group of hostages were found and led to safety in the daring Saturday raid on a Hamas stronghold in central Gaza. The specific footage shows when three of the hostages were initially located by elite counter-terror commandos and positive identification was established.

    The Israeli Police and Israeli Security Agency published the bodycam footage which features first-person perspective of one of the soldiers moving fast through an urban area, breaching what looks like an apartment building, while laying down heavy machine gun fire. The footage was pre-edited before it was released, and later appeared in mainstream news outlets with blurs editing out some of the faces. Watch below:

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    The particular footage shows the intense rescue of hostages Almog Meir Jan, Andrey Kozlov, and Shlomi Ziv by forces of the elite Yamam unit and Shin Bet agents. Amid the heavy exchange of gunfire, which also took place in broad daylight, a Yamam officer later identified as Arnon Zmora was killed.

    Upon storming the building and making contact, the hostages are asked to identify themselves by name. They are all seen huddling in a small room on mattresses. After that, a soldier tells the hostages, “We’ve come to save you.”

    In the final scenes of the video, the elite forces lay down cover fire while the hostages escape on foot, which also underscores how risky a situation it was even upon exiting the building. They are seen sprinting through a garden courtyard.

    Israeli authorities issued the following statement upon release of the video: “Yamam and Shin Bet operatives worked simultaneously at two locations to rescue the four hostages, engaging in fierce combat with the terrorists.”

    “Attached is footage from helmet cameras capturing the moments of the rescue, where Yamam officers and Shin Bet (Israel Security Service) operatives storm the locations holding the hostages,” the statement continued. “The dramatic rescue amidst fighting and neutralization of the terrorists in the area is clearly visible.”

    Likely it was just as dangerous or more as the team maneuvered out of the situation, given the major firefight would have attracted more Hamas militants and onlookers.

    All of the now freed captives were initially kidnapped by Hamas from the Nova music festival on October 7 and they are: Noa Argamani, 25, Almong Meir Jan, 21, Andrey Kozlov, 27 and Shlomi Ziv, 40. Authorities have confirmed they are in good medical condition and they underwent evaluations at Tel Aviv’s largest hospital, and are now with their families.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/10/2024 – 20:05

  • Federal Court Revives Lawsuit Against Los Angeles COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate
    Federal Court Revives Lawsuit Against Los Angeles COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A federal appeals court has revived a lawsuit challenging the COVID-19 vaccine mandate imposed by the Los Angeles school district, noting that the record doesn’t clearly show whether the vaccines prevent transmission of the illness.

    A COVID-19 vaccine is administered to a person in Los Angeles on Jan. 29, 2022. (Shannon Stapleton/Reuters)

    The Health Freedom Defense Fund and other challengers to the mandate asserted that it violated the due process and equal protection rights of district employees, in part because the vaccines, unlike traditional vaccines, “are not effective” in preventing infection.

    U.S. District Judge Dale Fischer disagreed, throwing out the case in 2022. She ruled that even if the COVID-19 vaccines don’t prevent infection, mandates can be imposed under a 1905 U.S. Supreme Court ruling because the vaccines reduce symptoms and prevent severe disease and death.

    A panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit on June 7 reversed that ruling, finding that Judge Fischer extended the 1905 Jacobson v. Massachusetts ruling “beyond its public health rationale—government’s power to mandate prophylactic measures aimed at preventing the recipient from spreading disease to others—to also govern ‘forced medical treatment’ for the recipient’s benefit.”

    U.S. Circuit Judge Ryan Nelson, writing for the 2–1 majority, added, “At this stage, we must accept plaintiffs’ allegations that the vaccine does not prevent the spread of COVID-19 as true. And, because of this, Jacobson does not apply.” That position was reached after lawyers for the defendants provided facts about the vaccines that “do not contradict plaintiffs’ allegations.”

    Lawyers for the district had pointed out that a U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention publication describes the COVID-19 vaccines as “safe and effective” although the publication doesn’t detail effectiveness against transmission.

    The majority also concluded that the case isn’t moot even after the Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD) in 2023 rescinded the mandate. That move only came after the appeals court heard arguments in the case, and comments from district board members indicated the mandate could be reimposed in the future. In 2021, the district added an option for employees to be frequently tested for COVID-19 in lieu of a vaccine after being sued, only to remove the option after a different suit was thrown out.

    “LAUSD’s pattern of withdrawing and then reinstating its vaccination policies is enough to keep this case alive,” Judge Nelson said.

    He was joined by U.S. Circuit Judge Daniel Collins.

    The ruling remanded the case back to Judge Fischer “for further proceedings under the correct legal standard.”

    In a concurring opinion, Judge Collins said the allegations in the case implicate “the fundamental right to refuse medical treatment,” pointing to more recent Supreme Court rulings, including a 1997 decision in which the court stated that the “‘right of a competent individual to refuse medical treatment’ was ‘entirely consistent with this nation’s history and constitutional traditions,’ in light of ’the common-law rule that forced medication was a battery, and the long legal tradition protecting the decision to refuse unwanted medical treatment.’”

    In a dissent, U.S. Circuit Judge Michael Daly Hawkins said that the school district “has averred that, absent a very unlikely return to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, it will not reinstate the policy.”

    “Neither the speculative possibility of a future pandemic nor LAUSD’s power to adopt another vaccination policy save this case,” the judge said.

    Judges Nelson and Collins were appointed by President Donald Trump. Judge Hawkins is an appointee of President Bill Clinton. Judge Fischer is an appointee of President George W. Bush.

    Leslie Manookian, president of the Health Freedom Defense Fund, said in a statement that the Ninth Circuit’s ruling “made clear that American’s [sic] cherished rights to self-determination, including the sacred right of bodily autonomy in matters of health, are not negotiable.”

    LAUSD didn’t respond to a request for comment.

    *   *   * 

    In markets, Goldman’s Ariana Contessa wrote in a note to clients that Monday kicked off the bank’s 45th Annual GS Healthcare Conference in Miami.

    Contessa pointed out, “Largest takeaway was what was NOT said from VAX players re: the Ninth Circuit Ruling around vaccines, causing the group to underperform.”

    “Our desk was much better for sale in Biotech vs better to buy in large cap Pharma,” the analyst noted. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/10/2024 – 19:45

  • Here Are The 5 Supreme Court Issues Set To Reshape America's Political Landscape
    Here Are The 5 Supreme Court Issues Set To Reshape America’s Political Landscape

    As the Supreme Court gears up to conclude its decision season by the end of June, several high-stakes cases loom that could significantly alter the nation’s political and social fabric in a crucial election year.

    In less than three weeks, the high court is expected to decide matters involving abortion, social media, the 2nd Amendment and of course – Trump, The Hill reports.

    Trump’s Legal Battles Take Center Stage

    At the forefront is former President Donald Trump’s appeal regarding criminal immunity for official acts performed by former presidents. The outcome could affect ongoing charges against him in federal election interference cases in Georgia and Florida, potentially dismissing these charges or even halting the trials altogether. During oral arguments, the justices seemed open to granting some form of immunity to former presidents, which could lead to further delays in these high-profile cases.

    At oral arguments, the justices appeared inclined to carve out some immunity for former presidents, leaving for a lower court whether the specific allegations against Trump fall within that shield. 

    That narrow resolution could provide Trump with more pathways to delay his cases, as he hopes to retake the White House following November’s election and grind his remaining indictments to a halt.

    Meanwhile, one Jan. 6 rioter’s appeal could help Trump – as one of four charges the former president faces is obstruction of an official proceeding. When said rioter challenged the use of this provision, the Supreme Court seemed skeptical of the DOJ’s use of the charge.

    Social Media Rights Under Scrutiny

    The Court is also set to decide on the rights of social media platforms, with significant implications for free speech online. This includes cases from Texas and Florida, where laws have been enacted to prevent social media platforms from banning users based on political views, challenging the platforms’ First Amendment rights to editorial discretion. The justices showed mixed reactions during the February arguments, reflecting the complexity of balancing regulatory measures with free speech.

    The rights afforded to social media platforms are on the line in two cases stemming from controversial laws regulating social media bans in Texas and Florida. 

    The laws aim to prevent social media companies from banning users based on their political views — even if users violate platform policies. 

    Tech industry groups challenged the legislation as a violation of private companies’ First Amendment rights, arguing that the laws allowed the government to walk all over platforms’ editorial discretion. 

    The justices appeared conflicted over the laws during oral arguments in February. 

    A third case against the Biden administration threatens to upend how the federal government quells misinformation online in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and 2020 presidential election.

    The Fate of a Widely Used Abortion Pill

    Another critical decision involves the abortion pill mifepristone, with the justices evaluating changes made by the FDA that ease access to the medication. This ruling follows the conservative majority’s previous decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, and it could further impact abortion access across the United States, depending on whether the Court restricts the use of the pill, which is involved in over half of all abortions nationally.

    A group of anti-abortion doctors and medical associations challenged changes made by the FDA over the past decade easing access to the pill, including increasing the gestational age at which mifepristone can be used to up to 10 weeks of pregnancy and allowing the medication to be mailed. 

    The high-stakes case could impact abortion access in both red and blue states, with mifepristone being used in more than half of abortions nationwide. 

    During March oral arguments, a majority of justices appeared skeptical that the challengers were sufficiently harmed to have gained legal standing to bring their case.

    Gun Rights Reexamined

    The Court is addressing two major gun rights cases. The first involves the constitutionality of federal restrictions on gun possession for individuals under domestic-violence restraining orders. Initial hearings suggest the Court may uphold these restrictions. The second case examines the legality of Trump-era regulations on bump stocks, with the justices appearing divided during arguments.

    Potential Overhaul of Federal Agency Power

    Lastly, the justices are considering a challenge to the Chevron deference, a pivotal doctrine that has permitted federal agencies broad regulatory authority for decades. A decision to overturn this precedent could significantly rein in the power of the executive branch to enact regulatory changes across various sectors, including environmental protection and financial regulations.

    Each of these decisions not only holds profound implications for the individuals and policies directly involved but also for the broader trajectory of American political and social life, signaling a potentially transformative period in U.S. jurisprudence.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/10/2024 – 19:25

  • What Would Josey Wales Do?
    What Would Josey Wales Do?

    Via the Burning Platform,

    “To hell with them fellas. Buzzards gotta eat, same as worms.” – Josey Wales

    As our political, economic, civic, and social structures continue to degrade, dissolve, and disintegrate before our very eyes, it is easy to become apathetic and surrender to hopelessness. There are relentless powerful forces actively trying to destroy the fabric of our society and force the masses into economic servitude while caged in an electronic gulag, controlled by an oligarchy of evil totalitarian minded billionaires and their lackeys in key governmental, political, banking, military, media, and corporate positions of power. We are in the same situation as Josey Wales in Clint Eastwood’s epic 1976 film – The Outlaw Josey Wales.

    The film tells the story of Josey Wales, a Missouri farmer, just trying to live his life in peace without interference from the government, uninterested in the violent Civil War between two monolithic forces fighting for their created causes.  His wife and son are brutally murdered by Union Redleg militants, led by the despicable  Captain Terrill, while he was away from his homestead. After burying his family, his mind naturally turns towards seeking revenge against the perpetrators, and he begins to practice shooting. He joins a group of pro-Confederate bushwackers who become the scourge of Union forces until the war’s conclusion.

    At the conclusion of the war, Josey’s friend and superior, Captain Fletcher, persuades the guerrillas to surrender, having been promised by Senator Lane that they will be granted amnesty if they hand over their weapons. Josey refuses to surrender because he knows you can never trust the government or the politicians who make promises they never keep. They have been pissing down our backs since the last Civil War, while telling us it’s just raining, so everyone can relate to this scene in the movie.

    Senator: The war’s over. Our side won the war. Now we must busy ourselves winning the peace. And Fletcher, there’s an old saying: To the victors belong the spoils.
    Fletcher: There’s another old saying, Senator: Don’t piss down my back and tell me it’s raining.

    Wales having refused to surrender, along with a young guerrilla named Jamie, are the only survivors when Terrill’s Redlegs massacre the surrendering men. Wales intervenes and wipes out many of the Redlegs with a Gatling gun before fleeing with Jamie, who dies from a bullet wound sustained in the massacre after helping Josey kill two pursuing bounty hunters.

    Fletcher learns the lesson that you can never trust the government, or the lackeys carrying out their mandates. They will lie and murder to accomplish their goals. Anyone who does not bow to their authority will be treated as an outlaw, with no acquiescence to the Constitution, decency, or simple human dignity.  Once decent men are pushed too far, they will push back in a more violent manner than the authorities will expect. Violence begets violence, and will create more Josey Wales type characters who will not surrender or ever bow down to governmental authority.

    Fletcher: Damn you, Senator. You promised me those men would be decently treated.
    Senator Lane: They were decently treated. They were decently fed and then they were decently shot. Those men are common outlaws, nothing more.

    The remainder of the movie entails Union soldiers and bounty hunters trying to track and  kill Josey, while he accumulates a rag-tag group of companions, including Indians,  foul mouthed grannies, and a slew of other settlers trying to live their lives unhindered by the government. Clint Eastwood’s character maintains a stoic meanness throughout the film towards his government enabled enemies, but has empathy and kindheartedness towards the downtrodden people who represent the vast majority of citizens in this country.

    I found it interesting  the film was based on the novel Gone to Texas, written with a virulent anti-government slant by a former George Wallace speechwriter. When the script writer/director tried to tone down the anti-government aspects, Eastwood told him no and eventually fired him, taking over as director for the remainder of the film. Eastwood’s refusal to bow to Hollywood pressure and soften the dialogue and story line is a tribute to his resolute dislike and mistrust of governmental authorities. He has essentially gone his own way and made his films his way, never letting the Hollywood elite dictate his path.

    Released in 1976 when anti-war sentiment was at its peak, following the government created Vietnam war debacle, which slaughtered over 50,000 American boys, Eastwood later referred to it as an anti-war film. And we all know it is governments and those Deep State operatives who control the levers of power, and start wars to increase their wealth, power and control. War never ends because it is extremely profitable for those waging it, while the youth doing the fighting are just cannon fodder for corporate interests. Eastwood was dead on, as we have waged wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, and now Ukraine and Palestine, benefiting the military industrial complex at the expense of you and me.

    “As for Josey Wales, I saw the parallels to the modern day at that time. Everybody gets tired of it, but it never ends. A war is a horrible thing.” – Clint Eastwood

    Eastwood equates the plight of the Confederacy with the plight of the American Indian, as both groups were bullied, bloodied and crushed under the weight of the Federal government, which began its unfettered growth during the Civil War and has now reached its zenith of incompetence, arrogance, lawlessness, and hatred towards the citizens it is supposed to serve. Most people just want to be left alone, like Josey Wales, to live their lives in peace and harmony with their fellow community members. But the federal government makes that impossible, with their rules, regulations, taxes, fees, and enforcement thugs harassing the public on a daily basis.

    In Eastwood’s movie they murder his family, murder his comrades, and are hell-bent on murdering him. The song remains the same. Our government murdered people minding their own business at Ruby Ridge. They murdered women and children at Waco. They murdered a rancher at Bundy Ranch. They send young men to war for bankers and corporations. They have been unlawfully imprisoning protestors in dungeons for a fake insurrection fomented and initiated by government agents. They rigged the presidential election and have convicted the leading political candidate of fake crimes he did not commit in order to maintain control over the political system.

    The list could go on for pages, as the totalitarian methods and abuse of power against the citizens of this country accelerate at a breakneck pace. Fear of seeing their wealth and power slip away has created an almost psychotic spasm of unhindered chaotic flailing about, in an ultimately fruitless effort to retain control. They are fearful of the masses wakening from their technology induced slumber and realizing the enemy is not the groups they have been programmed to hate, but the very government pulling the strings of this clownshow.

    The government needs a sedated, dumbed down populace who fear what they are told to fear and obey the instructions of their overlords. But the covid scamdemic and continuing death of loved ones from the toxic jabs, has opened the eyes of millions. The debt death spiral induced by Biden’s handlers, supercharged by the coordinated and financed invasion of our southern border by third world mutts, and resulting in raging inflation for average American families, has angered and infuriated the masses. We are approaching our moment of truth.

    The government is in the midst of creating millions of vengeful Josey Wales characters. As political chaos increases in the coming months, the threat of global conflagration escalates and the economic plight of the masses deteriorates, revenge against politicians, government drones, and the globalist financial elite for creating this madness will expand rapidly. We know what Josey Wales would do. The question is what will we do.

    Eastwood made his final Western masterpiece, sixteen years after Josey Wales, with the release of the Academy Award winning Unforgiven. He paid tribute to Josey Wales in the climactic scene in the saloon when confronting Little Bill. In The Outlaw Josey Wales Grandma Sarah’s initial reaction to meeting Josey Wales was:

    “This Mr. Wales is a cold-blooded killer. He’s from Missouri, where they’re all known to be killers of innocent men, women and children.”

    He closes the loop with Will Munny, out of Missouri, with the same false accusation that he killed women and children, as he also seeks retribution on government authoritarians who murdered an innocent man. Both Josey Wales and Will Munny tried to live out their lives as peaceful farmers, but were forced to revert to violence because the government would not allow them to live in peace.

    Little Bill Daggett : “You’d be William Munny out of Missouri. Killer of women and children.”

    Will Munny : “That’s right. I’ve killed women and children. I’ve killed just about everything that walks or crawled at one time or another. And I’m here to kill you, Little Bill, for what you did to Ned.”

    Eastwood’s first and last epic Westerns both examined the harsh reality of violence and retribution as the logical consequence for crimes committed against innocent people just trying to lives their lives. His meditations on the concepts of age, repute, courage, and the cloudy definition of heroism, make for far deeper and complex examinations of the old West than other western films. Eastwood distinguishes between the brutal reality of a world controlled and run by tyrannical psychopaths acting as government agents, and people living peacefully, with no government intervention.

    Eastwood’s ideal vision of America as a pluralist society of individualists of all races and backgrounds who put aside the past and their difference to live in harmony, contrasts with the reality of a society controlled and manipulated by those referred to as the “invisible government” by Edward Bernays. The ruling elite do not want people to live peaceably in a self reliant manner. The climactic scene in Outlaw Josey Wales between Josey Wales and Ten Bears captures the nature of our world and the difference between governments and the people.

    Josie Wales : “I came here to die with you. Or to live with you. Dying ain’t so hard for men like you and me. It’s living that’s hard when all you’ve ever cared about has been butchered or raped. Governments don’t live together – people live together. With governments, you don’t always get a fair word or a fair fight. Well, I’ve come here to give you either one or get either one from you. I came here like this so you’ll know my word of death is true, and my word of life is then true. The bear lives here, the wolf, the antelope, the Comanche. And so will we. Now we’ll only hunt what we need to live on, same as the Comanche does. And every spring, when the grass turns green, and the Comanche moves north, you can rest here in peace, butcher some of our cattle, and jerk beef for the journey. The sign of the Comanche, that will be on our lodge. That’s my word of life.”

    Ten Bears : “It’s sad that governments are chiefed by the double tongues. There is iron in your words of death for all Comanche to see, and so there is iron in your words of life. No signed paper can hold the iron. It must come from men. The words of Ten Bears carries the same iron of life and death. It is good that warriors such as we meet in the struggle of life… or death. It shall be life.”

    I had previously used Josey Wales as the basis for Part Four of my five part series based on Clint Eastwood movies in 2012, documenting how the Federal Reserve, under the control of the Wall Street banking cabal, had destroyed the middle class and set in motion the ultimate destruction of the American economic system. Here we are twelve years later and that destruction is approaching its climax. As the powers that be are flailing about in a final destructive apocalyptic spasm of hate, greed, and war, the average American needs to channel their inner Josey Wales.

    We can either give up and allow those running this shitshow for their own benefit to enslave us in perpetual debt, culling us with their toxic “vaccines”, making us eat meatless meat and bugs, forcing us into their digital currencies, 15 minute cities (aka electronic gulags), electric cars, and social credit system, or we can get plumb, mad-dog mean and man up. In order to reverse our totalitarian spiral, being executed by  powerful mega-wealthy men and their highly compensated double tongued lackey politicians, bankers, media moguls, and corporate chiefs, those 300 million guns will need to be put to use.

    If we want to live together peacefully, unhindered by an overbearing, corrupt government behemoth, controlled by evil men with evil intentions, then we will have to fight. That’s just the way it is. Ask yourself, “What would Josey Wales do?”, and act accordingly.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/10/2024 – 19:05

  • Speed Cameras In Atlanta Improperly Issued $300,000 To $500,000 Worth Of Tickets
    Speed Cameras In Atlanta Improperly Issued $300,000 To $500,000 Worth Of Tickets

    This is where the future is heading when we leave the police work up to big brother and AI. 

    Innocent drivers in Atlanta were improperly issued $75 tickets for speeding through a school zone at times when flashing yellow lights, used to indicate a revised speed limit during school hours, were not flashing. 

    FOX affiliate WAGA-TV reports that once school is dismissed and the orange lights cease flashing, the speed limit increases to 35 miles per hour, from the revised limit of 25 miles per hour.

    According to follow up reporting from The Sun, Atlanta Public Schools acknowledged that cameras were mistakenly issuing tickets to drivers after hours when the orange lights were off.

    As a result, drivers who received these citations, numbering nearly 4,500 since November 2023, will be refunded. The issue led to the issuance of hundreds of thousands of dollars in incorrect fines over a period of six months.

    Reporters inquired why cameras weren’t deactivated after hours but received no direct response. Ivan DeQuesada was fined $75 for speeding—39 mph in a 25 mph zone at nearly 5 p.m. on a Friday, despite inactive flashing lights, the report says. 

    He said: “I thought about what was happening that day. I remembered what I was doing, and then I thought, ‘Man, I don’t remember that school zone light being on.”

    “So I asked my neighbors, and then I was shocked to find out that several neighbors also got tickets, and they were kind of unexpected for the same reasons,” he continued.

    His neighbor, James Murphy, called it out as a potential money grab:  “They shouldn’t be raking in money from dozens of cars driving down the road when there’s no light blinking.”

    “It really just seems like a way to try to bring in money, rather than actually increase safety,” he concluded. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/10/2024 – 18:45

  • "It's Trump Vs World War III" – Martin Armstrong Warns "The Swamp Is Now An Ocean"
    “It’s Trump Vs World War III” – Martin Armstrong Warns “The Swamp Is Now An Ocean”

    Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

    Legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong says we are going to have a wild close to 2024. 

    Let’s start with Biden’s new job approval rating from Martin Armstrong’s “Socrates” program, which is now only 6% to 7%.  Armstrong explains,

    “It’s the old story of draining the swamp, but now, the swamp is an ocean.  This is completely crazy.  The cases against Trump show you how desperate they are here. 

    The reason they want Biden, and they even blocked RFK Jr. from getting on the Democrat ticket, the reason they want him is he is just a sock puppet. 

    He’s not really in charge.  He’s not making any decisions.”

    Are the Deep State globalist Democrats panicking over the 6% to 7% Biden approval rating? Top people on both sides know this is an accurate number.  With about four months to go before the 2024 Election, are they now panicking over these dismal approval numbers?  Armstrong says, “Oh, yes, they are panicking…”

    ” I have been in politics for more than 40 years.  I know how it works.  All of a sudden, you see in the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal, oh, Biden is slipping behind closed doors.  That would not make the press unless they wanted it to. 

    They are floating a balloon to see how it goes.  All of a sudden, they want Biden to do a debate.  Before, no debates.  Why?  Because they know he’s going to look bad…

    At the Democrat Convention, they will draft someone else, and that is most likely going to be Hillary.”

    The economy and war are linked in a big way, according to Armstrong, and he explains:

    “You’ve got about $10 trillion of US debt that is maturing this year. . . . You’ve got Secretary of State Blinken threatening China with war.  China dumped $53 billion in US debt in the first quarter of 2024.  That means China are sellers and not buyers.  You had Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen flying to China asking, ‘Please don’t sell.’ 

    It didn’t work.  This is why they are talking about raising the capital gains to 44%.  Why?  If nobody is going to buy the debt, that’s when default comes.  If you cannot sell the new debt to pay off the old debt, guess what?  It’s done.  

    This is how governments fall, and I have been warning them for decades that this is how it’s going to end…

    This is why they need war.  This is why Europe is going into war. . . . If you cannot sell the new debt, you have to default.  If you have war, and that is what is really behind this, if you go into war, they get to default and blame Putin…

    In November, it’s going to be Trump vs World War III regardless who is on the other side. 

    If you get Hillary or you get Biden, it’s the same thing.  Hillary is a neocon, and Biden says yes to whatever the neocons want.” 

    And the neocons clearly want war–a big one.

    There is much more in the 1-hour and 3-minute in-depth interview.

    Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Martin Armstrong as he gives his analysis about unpayable global debt, world war and the 2024 Election for 6.8.24.

    *  *  *

    To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here

    There is some free information, analysis and articles on ArmstrongEconomics.com. There are many new and recent reports to consider buying by clicking here.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/10/2024 – 18:25

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Jun 10

Today’s News 10th June 2024

  • France Seeks 'Direct' Entry Into Ukraine War: Kremlin
    France Seeks ‘Direct’ Entry Into Ukraine War: Kremlin

    The Kremlin says that NATO member France is fast becoming a ‘direct’ participant in the Ukraine war, which threatens to drastically inflame tensions and escalate the conflict further, possibly beyond Ukraine’s borders.

    French President Emmanuel Macron on Friday committed to transferring Mirage fighter jets to Kiev, as well as set up a French training program for Ukrainian pilots. He said this while Zelensky and Biden were in France commemorating and attending D-Day 80th anniversary events. Macron went so far as to repeat his call for Western countries to be willing to send troops directly into Ukraine.

    Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reacted as follows: “Macron demonstrates absolute support for the Kyiv regime and declares readiness for France’s direct participation in the military conflict.”

    Via Reuters

    “We consider these statements to be very, very provocative, inflaming tensions on the continent and not conducive to anything positive,” Peskov said Friday on the sidelines of the Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum.

    Macron has pressed ahead undeterred despite repeat Moscow warnings, as The Washington Post observed: 

    The comment, made in a news conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, is the latest sign that France and other allies may now be willing to put NATO country troops on Ukrainian soil — an idea that some allies, including the United States, have long considered potentially escalatory.

    Macron on Friday called Ukraine’s request for in-country training “legitimate” and said several partners have “already given their agreement.”

    “We are going to use the coming days to finalize a coalition, as broad as possible,” he said.

    Some reports have claimed President Biden has talked Macron out of putting Western boots on the ground in Ukraine; however, Biden’s message appears to more simply be that this action can’t be taken without consensus withing NATO.

    Indeed such a plan would run the risk of triggering NATO’s Article 5 common defense treaty, and see nuclear-armed confrontation between Russia and the Western alliance.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The below recent analysis by Responsible Statecraft shows why Macron’s plan to get allies on board at this sensitive moment politically are likely doomed to failure [emphasis ZH]…

    * * *

    Macron stated that Russia must not “win” the war; but, like all the other leaders of NATO, he has never defined what he means by this. Perhaps he means fighting Russia to a standstill followed by a compromise peace. In private conversations, however, French officials simply echo the U.S. line that only the Ukrainians can make peace — and the Ukrainian terms for peace require not a stalemate, but the complete military defeat of Russia.

    The need for Europe to develop a capacity for self-defense should be obvious. Having nailed themselves to the Biden administration, European governments have very belatedly woken up to the realization that the next president may well be Donald Trump, and that the U.S. commitment to Europe may radically diminish. Indeed, given U.S. problems at home and in the Middle East, plus growing tension with China, this commitment is likely to diminish in future whether or not Trump is elected.

    However, Macron’s hope that the supposed threat from Russia will prompt Europe to unite militarily behind French leadership vastly exaggerates both French military power and European willingness to follow France’s lead. After years of budget cuts, the French army is far too weak to intervene in Ukraine without full U.S. support. When in 2011 President Nicolas Sarkozy of France tried to take the lead in the “humanitarian intervention” in Libya, within a very few weeks he was begging an unwilling President Obama to take over the operation on behalf of NATO, for fear of a humiliating Anglo-French failure.

    In terms of appealing to other European countries, Macron’s hawkish stance on Ukraine is targeting East European partners. These governments, however, are precisely the countries with the most deeply-rooted determination to oppose European strategic autonomy and maintain until the bitter end the closest possible alliance with the United States.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/10/2024 – 02:45

  • Germany Is A Naive Pawn Of The USA With No Power To Turn Things Around
    Germany Is A Naive Pawn Of The USA With No Power To Turn Things Around

    By Peter Hansler, author of Voice From Russia

    Disorientated, erratic, weak: Franz Halder – Olaf Scholz

    Introduction

    In Germany, Orwellian conditions prevail in terms of domestic politics and the Germans are being led into the abyss by a bunch of dilettantes in terms of economic policy. When Chancellor Scholz once again publicly criticises a further escalation against Russia and calls for a halt, his words don’t hold water because he regularly gives in to pressure.

    Germany has still not realised that the US are not its friends, but are cold-bloodedly driving the proud and great (former) industrial nation to ruin in order to achieve their own goals.

    There is a pattern to this. Germany has been controlled from Washington since the end of the Second World War. I am firmly convinced that Germany would be perfectly capable of standing up and putting an end to this madness. The Anglo-Saxon plans would have no chance without Germany’s participation.

    Many people who are indoctrinated by the media and politicians do not realise the increasingly tangible risk of a third world war. I refer you to my article “Escalation towards World War 3 – Analysis“. This danger is not new and is constantly growing. Back in February 2023, I pointed out this dangerous trend in “Sleepwalkers at work: World War 3 has probably already begun” and concluded even then that World War 3 had already begun in purely material terms.

    In addition, there are no longer any important voices in German politics or the media that could oppose this madness, as they are not even published by the major media or are labelled as Russia-lovers or Nazis.

    It would take strength and courage to turn the tide. The last time the Germans were driven into the abyss by psychopaths, they did not find this courage and were completely destroyed. Only then did they spit in their hands and phenomena such as the “Trümmerfrauen” led the country back to prosperity.

    Warmongering

    As a representative of the warmongers, it should be briefly noted that Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann (FDP) has called for the 900,000 reservists in Germany to be activated. The reason for the “defence politician’s” call is Russia’s possible attack plans against the West. The flaw in this plan: There is not the slightest evidence of any attack plans by Russia. A catastrophe is being conjured up here that is based on invented dangers.

    In medicine, we speak of delusions when a doctor hears from his patient that he is afraid of being poisoned by his wife, even though the man in question is not married.

    President Putin’s answer to a question from a journalist at his press conference in St. Petersburg shows the usually thoughtful president to be really angry:

    Have you completely lost your minds?
    Stupid as a table?
    They invented that Russia wants to attack NATO.
    Have you completely lost your minds?
    Dumm wie dieser Tisch?
    Who came up with this?
    It’s nonsense, utter rubbish.
    It would be rubbish, if it wasn’t a plan to just trick their own population by saying, “Help, Russia is going to attack soon, we must arm ourselves urgently, send weapons to Ukraine!”
    In reality it is done to preserve their own imperial standing and might, that what it’s done for.
    Look at NATO’s potential and Russia’s potential.
    Did you decide, we are crazy or something?

    A few days ago, NATO also announced its preparations to deploy 300,000 American troops to the European fronts in the event of a full-blown conflict with Russia. The spiral of madness is accelerating.

    By comparing President Putin with Hitler, the Second World War is used to analyse the situation, although the situation of continuous warfare shows striking parallels to the events that took place before the First World War and triggered a war that nobody actually wanted and plunged humanity into an apocalypse.

    This war merely paused between 1918 and 1939 and flared up again in Europe 21 years later. There are many signs that the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East are the overture to a major catastrophe. Escalation is the motto – everyone in the West agrees on this; the peace conference in Switzerland, without Russia as a warring party and with “peace goals” that are grotesque, merely serves as a fig leaf for the aggressive West to be able to say that everything has been tried when a major conflict breaks out. This conference will fail and is designed to do so. The Swiss Federal Council does not seem to have realised this; the formerly neutral country is acting just as naively as Germany and, with the help of the Swiss media, has quickly become a vile warmonger under the guise of “neutrality”, a term that has degenerated into a meaningless label.

    No education and no historical awareness on the part of the government

    In addition, the German leadership lacks education. If you don’t understand history and the strategy of the Hegemons, you are in a poor position, because a lack of historical awareness leads to wrong decisions in the present.

    The main thrust of the hegemons has not changed in the last 120 years or so. It is somewhat surprising that many people still believe today that Germany was solely responsible for the First World War. Even then, every conceivable effort was made internationally to prevent the Germans from focussing on peace and prosperity in the long term and with all their social power.

    Germany was becoming too strong economically for the then hegemon Great Britain. The construction of the Berlin-Baghdad railway, for example, threatened the British Empire not only industrially, but also in terms of trade routes. If you understand Mackinder’s Heartland Theory, which saw the British Empire in danger as early as 1905, and internalise the strategy of Brzesinski and Friedman, the First World War and today’s tensions make much more sense. However, this requires a minimum of knowledge and education, which the German government clearly lacks. On this topic, I refer you to the article by Karl Eckstein “Anglo-Saxon geopolitical strategy – unchanged for 120 years“. We will return to this topic below.

    Back to the top with courage, stubbornness and discipline

    The economic miracle after the Second World War was an impressive achievement by the Germans after the Second World War. Through hard work and a skilful economic policy, Germany brought itself back to the top of the world. The Marshall Plan launched in 1947 certainly helped, but the Germans achieved their rise primarily through their own efforts. Determined, stubborn and skilful. Ludwig Ehrhard, the first Economics Minister after the war, epitomised the right policy. He had the courage to abolish rationing and price controls as early as 1948; the British, who won the war after all – albeit as the junior partner of the USA – did not abandon the last rationing regulations until 1954. If politics and business make the right decisions, Germany flourishes. Until a few years ago, it was Germany that was the world’s leading exporter.

    Trümmerfrauen – a symbol of the rebuilding of Germany

    That’s the positive side of this determined marching and stubbornness, which was necessary to catch up with the top after humanity’s greatest war disaster to date.

    Stubbornness and overconfidence lead to hell

    However, with the same stubbornness, the Germans also managed to lead their own country – and many others – into the apocalypse and failed to put a stop to it even when any cool-headed observer could see – see, not guess – the catastrophe long before the collapse.

    After the great military successes that culminated in the victory over France in 1940, the German army leadership under Adolf Hitler decided to conquer the Soviet Union. Many generals who survived the war and wrote their memoirs afterwards wrote themselves into heroes after the war and claimed that it was Hitler alone who wanted this campaign – they had warned and opposed it.

    That is not true. The German army command and the majority of the German people – especially after the French campaign in 1940 – were in such a frenzy of victory that they believed themselves to be invincible and took a bite that they choked on.

    The logisticians were the only ones who really warned and rightly argued that the supply of the troops could only cope with such a huge campaign for a few weeks. Almost four million soldiers invaded the Soviet Union, three million Germans and many Romanians, Italians and other allied units. Hitler was convinced that all they had to do was kick down the door and the whole rotten structure would collapse. Disillusionment came very quickly, however.

    Biographies of the great German generals are embellished marketing brochures and are in no way suitable for a fact-based analysis. Everything that did not make the gentlemen look good was deliberately omitted. For example, these gentlemen were very well informed about what was happening to Jews and other parts of the civilian population behind the front line, because the genocide required coordination between the ” Einsatztruppen” and the combat troops. The megalomania, in which many generals were in no way second to Adolf Hitler, was also rewritten in the biographies.

    However, if you browse through the war diaries of the military leadership, you will find the truth. I read the war diary of the Chief of the Army General Staff, Colonel General Franz Halder. It reveals the truth, written down directly on the day of the events in question. The author did not believe that these records would ever be made public and therefore these records are to be rated significantly higher in terms of honesty than the embellished biographies.

    Reading this work, one is surprised that the Chief of the General Staff clearly lacked an accurate overview. He noted down fragments of information, many figures and individual reports. How a war could be waged on the basis of such information is beyond me.

    Furthermore, the erratic nature of the overall assessment on the Eastern Front is more than astonishing and confirms the impression of a lack of oversight, which would have been essential for the success of warfare in various theatres.

    On 3 July 1941, less than two weeks after the start of “Barbarossa”, the great German offensive against Russia, Halder reported that Russia would probably be finished in a fortnight, only to report just over a month later, on 11 August, that the “colossus” Russia had been underestimated. By the summer of 1941, the dream of a quick victory was already over and the difficulties warned of by the logisticians were already materialising. In October, the Germans were once again confident of victory before the “Typhoon” offensive – the final advance on Moscow – and announced the defeat of the Soviet Union. Things turned out differently. Only a few motorbike patrols made it as far as Khimki, a suburb of Moscow, which today lies on the MKAD ring road, a good 20 kilometres from the Kremlin.

    A memorial “Monument to the Defenders of Moscow” was erected. Will the memorial bear fruit?

    Moscow not only survived, the Russians went on the offensive for the first time. On 8 December 1941, Adolf Hitler issued directive no. 39 and the offensive was halted.

    When Wilhelm Keitel, head of the Wehrmacht High Command, was asked by the Soviet prosecutor Major Iona Timofeyevich Nikitchenko at the first Nuremberg war crimes trial when he thought the war against Russia had been lost, Keitel replied with one word: “Moscow”.

    Continuing the war even though militarily defeated

    Germany’s strategy: fight on until the end

    After the defeat before Moscow, the German Wehrmacht was so weakened, even in the opinion of German generals, that a victory against the Soviet Union was no longer conceivable. Nevertheless, the war continued for almost another three and a half years. In the history books, the defeat of the Wehrmacht is linked to later lost battles: Stalingrad (1942), Kursk (1943), Bagration (1944) and even Berlin (1945). Most of the losses were suffered by both sides after 1941, but the fact that the Wehrmacht still managed to continue causing damage for almost three and a half years despite its strategic defeat in front of Moscow should be borne in mind when assessing wars in Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq and ultimately Ukraine and Gaza. These conflicts were and continue to be waged despite the aggressor’s realisation that military victory was and is impossible. Why?

    There are probably several reasons why the Germans did not call off the operation in Russia in 1941. Firstly, it was the Nazis’ declared aim to exterminate the Soviets, whom they saw as sub-human. They were quite successful in doing so, as they managed to kill around 15 million civilians. Secondly, an armistice with Stalin would have been difficult, as the military reputation of the Wehrmacht would have suffered, the genocide of the population would have become known worldwide and, after an armistice, a strengthened Russia would have stood on the borders of the German Reich. There were therefore many reasons for the Nazis not to seek peace with Stalin. It is important to note that the Germans did not gain any advantage from this strategy, but rather caused their downfall.

    US strategy: lose militarily – win strategically

    The Americans also continue to fight lost wars, but achieve strategic goals that benefit their geopolitical strategy.

    Since the Second World War, it has been observed that the US has also continued military conflicts for a long time despite regular military defeats. However, they do this by managing to keep their own losses very low, as their weapons systems were vastly superior to their weak opponents until recently, they had air superiority and regularly sent third parties into the fire as proxies.

    The reasons for this strategy are multi-layered: firstly, war is a huge business for the USA – or rather for the military-industrial complex. Secondly, the main aim of these wars is to weaken strategic opponents; this can be achieved even if one is ultimately defeated militarily.

    As I am now in Iran and studying its history, the Iran-Iraq war is a prime example of this strategy, in which the USA even managed not to be involved militarily; Iraq was used as a proxy. The war lasted eight years. Although the Iranians ultimately prevailed militarily, they were completely bled dry financially, militarily and in terms of population. Many well-educated men died in this conflict, who were then missing for reconstruction. The Americans succeeded in making the rise of an Iran independent of the USA after the Shah impossible in the long term and to this day – goal achieved.

    Is the US strategy working in Ukraine?

    Fakten

    In my opinion, NATO’s military defeat in Ukraine has been a fact since September 2023. We already discussed this last September in “Ukraine is militarily finished“. Since then, the Russian territorial gains have been steadily increasing and for a few weeks now, the Russians have opened a new front from the north against Kharkov, which has led to the front being extended once again, thinning out the Ukrainians’ forces even further. The Russians do not need to launch a major offensive – and have not done so to date – but are instead wearing down the Ukrainian forces on the ever-lengthening front line with small advances. Ukrainian losses per day are steadily increasing and have long since passed the point where these losses were still replaceable. The weapons arriving in Ukraine from the West will not solve the problem – there is not only a lack of soldiers, but above all a lack of will on the part of the Ukrainian population to go to their deaths for the US. Furthermore, President Zelensky has been ruling without a legal basis since May. He has not allowed any elections to take place as he would have been voted out of office. This fact alone makes negotiations with the legalistic Russians impossible.

    The facts are on the table; whether you like them or not is irrelevant. Russia will prevail militarily in this conflict. The Russian people are united, the military and civilian infrastructure is functioning, the economy is booming.

    This time the USA misses its target – or does it?

    The USA has failed against Russia in several ways: firstly, it has missed its military target and this failure is damaging America’s prestige as the greatest military power. Secondly, the sanctions war against Russia was a complete failure. The West was weakened and Russia was strengthened. The IMF figures speak volumes. Germany doesn’t even make the list.

    The USA did not succeed in weakening Russia. However, the US strategy is much more cynical. Let’s come back to Mackinder: let’s talk about George Friedman, the current head of American geostrategy, the successor to Mackinder and Brzesinski, so to speak:

    “The primary interest of the United States through the last century-that is, the First War, the Second War, and the Cold War-has been the relationship between Germany and Russia, because united, those two would be the only power that could threaten us-and so we have to make sure that doesn’t happen.”

    George Friedman

    The aim is therefore to prevent Germany from teaming up with Russia. If it is not possible to weaken Russia as a major opponent, there is the option of preventing the alliance by turning Germany and Russia into enemies and/or destroying Germany. Today, Germany is hostile to Russia and massively weakened by this conflict. A military conflict with Russia would probably destroy Germany once again. The USA is therefore on the “right” path – for the third time after 1918 and 1945.

    Germany’s turnaround unlikely

    The German population has lost its way

    Just like 80 years ago, the Germans have lost their way. The soul of the people has been poisoned by the media’s hate propaganda and the population is misinformed about its own economic and military situation – the Second World War sends its regards. Only after the German people have been given a honest talking to would they be able to properly assess the situation and exert pressure on the government, whose members are incompetent but masterfully pursue their personal interests.

    Those in power want to maintain their position and their standard of living

    There is a complete lack of competence in the government itself. I don’t even need to discuss this at this point, as it is so obvious.

    From an American perspective, the government’s line-up is a good choice: Scholz, Habeck, Baerbock and whatever their names are.

    Due to their lack of education and character weaknesses, such people would have no chance whatsoever of obtaining a post in the free economy that would allow them so much money, flights in private jets, trips in limousines and overnight stays in the best hostels in the world. I can’t think of any business owner who would hire Mrs Baerbock as an employee in any company for any function.

    These politicians know this very well and they do everything they can to continue to lead this life. Instructions from Brussels or Washington are therefore followed in order to guarantee their own job security. They want to be re-elected or receive a new post due to their “loyalty” to Washington, which secures their standard of living. There is currently even speculation that Mrs Baerbock could possibly become Ursula von der Leyen’s successor in Brussels. It can therefore be ruled out that the current government would decide to make a U-turn – their own interests prohibit them from doing so.

    New elections will not bring any change

    Neither the people nor the current government will therefore want or be able to make a U-turn. Would new elections change the picture?

    I am extremely pessimistic about that too. The only political groups that could dare to reassess Russia are the AFD and the Sarah Wagenknecht alliance. The powers that be are aware of this and are using every means at their disposal, with or without a legal basis, to destroy the AFD and ridicule Wagenknecht.

    Without having to enter into legal analyses, the accusations against the AFD are already absurd in and of themselves. The AFD is accused of right-wing extremism and its members are labelled Nazis. Even the German Office for the Protection of the Constitution is looking into these issues. The situation is therefore as follows: The warmongers from the CDU/CSU to the Greens, i.e. from left to right, are calling the AFD, which alongside the Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance is the only party in favour of negotiations with Russia and is against the war, Nazis and want to ban it. Terms are being confused and history seems to have been lost.

    You can sense that there are people in Germany who oppose the warmongering of the government and the media and are taking to the streets, but even if the AFD were to achieve a brilliant result, this will not bring about a turnaround.

    According to the latest figures from the Sunday Bundestag election poll, the AFD would achieve between 14% and 19%, depending on the polling organisation, and the Sarah Wagenknecht alliance between 5% and 8%. Although these are good results compared to the 2021 elections (AFD: 10.3%, Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance was only just formed), they will not be enough to tip the balance of power in the Bundestag towards peace.

    Worse still, the CDU/CSU will probably win the elections and Friedrich Merz, whom the USA no longer needs to buy, as this already happened years ago due to his Blackrock mandate, will become the next Federal Chancellor on the basis of today’s figures. More pro-USA and therefore more pro-war is not possible. Depending on the outcome of the elections, there will either be a coalition with the SPD or another three-party coalition with the Greens. A great deal would have to change in order to prevent this outcome.

    Cautionary voices are silenced

    Internal forces that would bring about a turnaround are therefore lacking in Germany. Voices that oppose this are already being systematically silenced by the system (government and media). The parallels between the actions of those in power today and the 1930s are astounding and worrying. From 1933 onwards, a similar approach was taken, first gently and then increasingly harshly against journalists who asked questions, until the final destination was murder or concentration camp. The fact that Scott Ritter was denied permission to leave his own country a few days ago shows that illegal practices are already a fact of life in the USA and will soon be a reality in Germany too.

    Dangerous upcoming wake-up calls

    Coming financial collapse as a wake-up call

    It is interesting in this context that no one seems to care about the instability in the Western financial markets. The situation is very similar to the domestic and geopolitical situation. People think they have everything under control, although the reality speaks a different language. The entire system could collapse any day and that day will come. Such a collapse could be a wake-up call that forces a reassessment of the overall situation or will lead to a complete escalation.

    Russia’s strike against NATO as a wake-up call

    The war against Russia has already begun, Russia has not yet reacted kinetically against NATO. Western politicians often bluff and draw red lines in the sand, which are moved once they are crossed. The West does not recognise that the Russians operate differently: they are systematic, clear and do not bluff: they do things differently. The escalation in the use of long-range weapons against targets in Russia is not at all to the liking of the Russians and President Putin has announced consequences. These consequences will come. This could involve a strike against NATO facilities outside Ukraine, including in Germany; see our comments on this in “The consequences of the intercepted German air force conversation mean war“. The chatter about a Russian nuclear attack in the West is a distraction from this conventional danger.

    This could also be a wake-up call. The West has obviously not considered that NATO would not have an adequate response to such a strike by Russia. If the Russians come to the conclusion that such a strike will be followed by apathy, it will come and serve as a wake-up call. Nevertheless, it is a dangerous game.

    Conclusion

    It is obvious that Germany is misjudging the threat situation and its chances and is being completely controlled by the USA. The incompetent and erratic assessment of the situation is nothing new – as a comparison with Franz Halder’s diary shows – and the longer the Bonmôt that history will not repeat itself, the more critically one should assess it. Keitel’s statement confirms that Germany is perfectly capable of walking into disaster with its eyes wide open. In this context, the ability of the Germans to work their way out of even the greatest ruin is little consolation. The chances of Germany achieving a turnaround are minimal.

    Mass events such as the Olympics would certainly be valuable catalysts for coming to the conclusion that the whole thing could be reconsidered in the peaceful confrontation of a sporting event with the “enemies”. However, the Olympic Committee is aware of this and is doing everything it can to prevent such an outcome. René Zittlau reported on this in his article “Sport is the continuation of diplomacy by other means“.

    To prevent a global war, it would take a wake-up call of the martial kind, such as the collapse of the financial system or a military response from Russia. However, it is impossible to judge whether such events would lead to reflection or escalation.

    In my opinion, however, the main responsibility for this situation lies with the leading media in the West. Objective reporting over the last 10 years would have made this development in politics and among the people impossible.

    The fourth estate has degenerated into a myth.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/10/2024 – 02:00

  • Connecticut Democrats Use Pride Flag To 'Honor' State Trooper Killed On Duty
    Connecticut Democrats Use Pride Flag To ‘Honor’ State Trooper Killed On Duty

    Authored by Steve Watson via modernity.news,

    Democrats in Wethersfield, Connecticut refused to fly the ‘thin blue line’ flag in remembrance of a state trooper who was killed while on duty, instead insisting that flying an LGBTQ ‘pride’ flag at half staff was enough of an honor.

    Yes, really.

    Trooper Aaron Pelletier was killed while conducting a routine traffic stop, with one Alex Oyola-Sanchez arrested and charged with second-degree manslaughter.

    Police said Oyola-Sanchez was under the influence of several types of drugs when he drove into Pelletier, his squad car and the vehicle he had pulled over.

    The trooper died from fatal injuries at the scene. Oyola-Sanchez Drove off but was later apprehended.

    Democrat council members voted down a motion to fly the thin blue line flag in the trooper’s honor.

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    Emily Zambrello, one of those members, told reporters that the decision was taken because the flag represents “racism and antagonism.”

    Zambrello further claimed that a compromise had been made by having the LGBTQ pride flag “already up at half staff in honor of [Pelletier’s] passing.”

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    Absolutely incredible.

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    Compare this pathetic ‘Pride’ gathering to the way the State Troopers honored Pelleteir:

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    Connecticut GOP chairman Ben Proto slammed Democrats for failing to properly honor the fallen trooper.

    This epitomises the utter state of towns and cities under Democrat control.

    Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/09/2024 – 23:20

  • Massie Slams AIPAC, Censorship, Surveillance, Debt Crisis, And Insane Government Regulations: New Tucker
    Massie Slams AIPAC, Censorship, Surveillance, Debt Crisis, And Insane Government Regulations: New Tucker

    Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) sat down with Tucker Carlson for a little over two hours, where the two discussed a variety of topics, including the grip that lobbies such as AIPAC has have over legislative agendas, freedom of speech, government surveillance, and the influence of the media when it comes to the political polarization of American politics.

    (If you click into the tweet below you can navigate to various sections)

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    Massie began by opining on the US National Debt, which currently stands at just under $35 trillion.

    You know, it’s hard to comprehend 14 digits of debt. But when you see the last five digits are moving so fast, you can’t, you know, perceive them with your eyes, then you kind of understand. Whoa, we are problem here. I mean, it’s a $100,000 a second, roughly. So imagine we had this catapult and we were launching, cyber trucks once a second into the ocean. That’s how much debt we’re taking on, continuously.

    He noted a troubling tendency by Congress to treat the debt as a mere abstraction vs. an urgent reality that requires immediate and decisive action, telling Carlson “I am trying to make people feel very uncomfortable” so a to raise awareness.

    Lobbyists Rule DC

    Massie then went into his views on lobbying and his stance on foreign aid – in particular, his consistent record of voting against funding for Israel. He explained that his opposition to these measures is not rooted in animosity towards Israel but stems from a broader philosophical and fiscal responsibility perspective against excessive foreign aid and involvement in overseas conflicts.

    “Look, we haven’t named three post offices like in the last month. We voted like 15 or 16 times on issues related to Israel. And, you know, I’ve been hit because I voted no on all of them.“

    His repeated votes against funding Israel reflect his commitment to reducing U.S. expenditures overseas, which he views as contributing to the national debt and entangling the U.S. in foreign issues that do not directly serve American interests. Massie’s larger concern is the implications of US foreign policy decisions and the use of US taxpayer funds to achieve them.

    He then delved deep into the workings and influence of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) on the legislative processes of the United States Congress – and in particular, how the organization shapes the agenda in Washington DC, often overshadowing domestic priorities.

    According to Massie, AIPAC effectively places “minders” on GOP members to monitor and influence their actions and voting – saying that each Repuiblican seems to have an “AIPAC person” or babysitter.

    “I have Republicans, you come to me on the floor and say, ‘I wish I could vote with you today. Yours is the right vote, but I would just take too much flak back home,” adding “And I have Republicans who come to me and say, ‘That’s wrong, what a PAC is doing to you. Let me talk to my AIPAC person.’ By the way, everybody but me has an AIPAC person.”

    MASSIE: It’s like your babysitter. Your AIPAC babysitter who is always talking to you for AIPAC. They’re probably a constituent in your district, but they are, you know, firmly embedded in AIPAC.

    CARLSON: And every member has something like this.

    MASSIE: Every Re– I don’t know how it works on the Democrats’ side. But that’s how it works on the Republican side. And when they come to D.C., you go have lunch with them. And they’ve got your cell number and you have conversations with them. So I’ve had like–

    CARLSON: That’s absolutely crazy.

    MASSIE: I’ve had four members of Congress say, “I’ll talk to my AIPAC person.” And like that’s clearly what we call them, my AIPAC guy. I’ll talk to my AIPAC guy and see if I can get them to, you know, dial those ads back.

    CARLSON: Why have I never heard this before?

    MASSIE: It doesn’t benefit anybody. Why would they want to tell their constituents that they’ve basically got a buddy system with somebody who’s representing a foreign country? It doesn’t benefit the congressman for people to know that. So they’re not going to tell you that.

    “They pay for trips for congressmen and their spouses to go to Israel,” Massie continued. “I’m not the only Republican who hasn’t taken the AIPAC trip to Israel, but I’m probably one of a dozen that hasn’t taken that trip and the other ones just haven’t got around to it.”

    Censorship and Freedom of Speech

    Massie also addressed concerns related to censorship, particularly focusing on legislation that impacts freedom of speech on university campuses. For example, he was critical of a bill that proposed to combat anti-Semitism in educational institutions but, according to him, used an overly broad and externally defined criterion that could potentially limit free speech, pointing out the problematic aspects of using an external definition of anti-Semitism from a website, which he felt could lead to censorship of legitimate academic discussions and expressions. He questioned the rationale behind not including the definition directly in the bill, which could lead to ambiguities and potential misuse:

    “They brought a bill to Congress, and this was actually a binding bill, not a non-binding resolution… the problem with this bill is they use some international definition of anti-Semitism on a website somewhere. My first question is, why don’t you just put the definition in the bill?”

    He then said that referencing an external source for defining what constitutes hate speech could lead to arbitrary or politically motivated censorship, particularly in educational settings where freedom of speech is crucial.

    “For instance, saying that, Jews kill Jesus, which is, you know, in the Bible, he was he was not welcome among his own people. Okay. And so that would be anti-Semitism. And if you engaged in that on campus or just offered that as a thought, let’s say in a classroom, you would be anti-Semitic and you would run afoul of the Department of Education and some federal laws.”

    Out-of-control Government

    Massie also discussed his concerns over government surveillance, privacy, and overreach, specifically focusing on legislative measures that would allow more intrusive government control. One of the main examples he brought up was related to automotive regulations that would permit remote deactivation of vehicles.

    For example, a law that mandates new cars sold by 2026 must have the capability to be remotely turned off by authorities. Massie criticized this capability as a significant overreach, saying, “By 2026, every new automobile sold has to be able to turn itself off if it doesn’t like you’re driving… How do you appeal this conviction at the roadside?” This statement underscores his concerns about the potential for misuse and the erosion of individual freedoms and privacy.

    Massie suggests a call to action for policymakers, technologists, and the public to consider the long-term implications of short-term safety measures.

    His message is based in libertarian principles, and focuses on the trade-offs between security measures and personal freedoms. With the car example above, Massie slams  the lack of recourse or transparency in how these technologies are applied. For him, the principle of autonomy—being able to control one’s movement without unwarranted interference—is paramount.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/09/2024 – 22:45

  • Jim Jordan Reacts To Shocking Report Of Potential Juror Misconduct in Trump Trial
    Jim Jordan Reacts To Shocking Report Of Potential Juror Misconduct in Trump Trial

    Authored by Ben Sellers via Headline USA,

    During a visit to Monroe, N.C., to support conservative congressional candidate Mark Harris on Friday, House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, was surprised by a reporter’s question about fresh allegations from former President Donald Trump’s New York lawfare trial that could potentially result in a mistrial.

    Earlier in the day, Judge Juan Merchan wrote a letter to Trump’s attorneys and prosecutors with the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office, notifying them of a Facebook comment that was discovered under a routine court post dated May 29, the day before a jury convicted Trump of 34 felonies.

    The commenter, identifying himself as a juror’s cousin by the name of Michael Anderson, appeared to offer some advance inside knowledge about the verdict.

    “Well, if that happened, that’s wrong,” Jordan responded when asked about the breaking news. “I have not heard that and I don’t know if it’s true, but you obviously aren’t supposed to be doing that, so we’ll have to see.“

    In his letter, Merchan claimed he had just learned of the comment.

    “Today, the Court became aware of a comment that was posted on the Unified Court System’s public Facebook page and which I now bring to your attention,” the judge wrote. “The comment, now labeled as one week old, responded to a routine UCS notice, posted on May 29.”

    Merchan’s letter did not clarify whether the person who posted the comment was indeed related to a juror.

    The judge, a Biden donor, was widely criticized for his biased rulings throughout the trial and was even suspected of receiving bribes through his daughter, whose digital marketing firm drew millions of dollars from Democrat politicians—some of whom became involved directly in the case.

    Merchan’s brief letter did not outline any sort of follow up steps, although it stands to reason that the court will investigate the matter and would declare a mistrial if, in fact, juror misconduct were established.

    The concern provides yet another avenue for appeal to Trump, whom many legal experts believe will ultimately see the case overturned, although the disruption to his campaign and political fallout from the conviction have yet to be determined.

    At the Friday night fundraiser in North Carolina, Jordan offered high praise for Trump, with whom he has formed a close bond, touting his tenacity in particular.

    “His attitude in light of everything they’ve done to him is just phenomenal,” Jordan told the audience.

    The charter chairman of the House Freedom Caucus recalled an anecdote from the night Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate was raided by the FBI—an unprecedented abuse of power at the time—which took place shortly before the 2022 midterm election.

    “There are certain times where you think, ‘This is not supposed to happen in this country,’” Jordan said of his reaction after seeing the news unfold on television with his wife.

    When he called Trump, however, the reaction was far from what one might have expected:

    “Jim, this is the best thing that’s ever happened to our party,” Trump reportedly told him. “My numbers are gonna go up.”

    During an exclusive interview with Headline USA, Jordan said House Republicans had received a response on Friday after sending a letter last week to Manhattan D.A. Alvin Bragg and his lead prosecutor, requesting that they testify before the House Weaponization Subcommittee.

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    “They just sent us a letter back today saying they’re willing to talk to us, so we’ll see,” said Jordan. “But we may have to, you know, go with a subpoena to get him [Bragg] to testify as well.”

    The House is also investigating Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, who has publicly quarreled with Jordan and leveled ad hominem attacks against him for his oversight efforts.

    Jordan noted, however, that as of this week, “Willis’s case is falling apart” following an appellate court’s decision to suspend the trial until October while evaluating whether she is ethically fit to continue as prosecutor.

    The House is also attempting to impose accountability on special counsel Jack Smith. However, a proposed bill likely faces steep odds of clearing the Democrat-run Senate, even though it ironically vests greater authority in the upper chamber to close a constitutional loophole exploited by Attorney General Merrick Garland.

    “We’re trying to get legislation out to say that any special counsel who wasn’t approved by the Senate gets no funds,” Jordan said. “It‘s the way to get at this Jack Smith and the ridiculous things he’s done.”

    Florida Judge Aileen Cannon has similarly scheduled a June 21 hearing for Trump and his co-defendants in the Mar-a-Lago case to argue that Smith’s appointment was unlawful since he was never confirmed by the Senate—a legal theory first floated by former Attorney General Ed Meese.

    Jordan downplayed calls for the House to rescind two contempt of Congress resolutions passed by Democrats in the previous session, saying the move was unlikely to have any effect on the already prosecuted cases.

    Two former Trump advisers—Peter Navarro and Steve Bannon—became the first people prosecuted and convicted under the law in roughly four decades, fueling more outrage and allegations of two-tiered justice. Navarro is currently incarcerated, and Bannon is expected to report to jail by the end of the month.

    In the wake of Trump’s felony convictions, House Republicans have faced brutal criticism from some for their inaction, with Jordan, in particular, bearing the brunt of it over his failure to live up to his promise as a GOP attack dog—instead becoming the champion of the “strongly worded letter.”

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    Ben Sellers is the editor of Headline USA. Follow him at twitter.com/realbensellers.

    The Center Square’s Brett Rowland contributed to this report.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/09/2024 – 22:10

  • Mapping Illegal Immigrants By State
    Mapping Illegal Immigrants By State

    U.S. President Joe Biden recently announced actions to bar immigrants who cross the US-Mexico border illegally.

    In this graphic, Visual Capitalist’s Bruno Venditti maps the number of unauthorized immigrants by state, based on 2021 estimates from the Pew Research Center based on calculations using U.S. Census Bureau data.

    Undocumented Immigrants Concentrated in Certain States

    The unauthorized immigrant population in the United States was estimated at around 10 million in 2021 after peaking at 12.2 million in 2007.

    California, Texas, Florida, New York, New Jersey, and Illinois had the largest unauthorized immigrant populations in 2021. These six states were home to 56% of the nation’s unauthorized immigrants in 2021, down from 80% in 1990.

    Between 2017 and 2021, the unauthorized immigrant populations in Florida and Washington increased, while those in California and Nevada decreased.

    The most common country of birth for people without legal status is Mexico. In recent years, however, there have been increases in immigrants from nearly every other region of the world—Central America, the Caribbean, South America, Asia, Europe, and sub-Saharan Africa.

    In addition, around 5% of U.S. workers are unauthorized immigrants.

    If you enjoyed this post, be sure to check out Why Do People Immigrate to the U.S.? This visualization shows why immigrants choose to come to America.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/09/2024 – 21:35

  • Illegals Marching in NYC Usher In Next Phase Of Biden’s Color Revolution
    Illegals Marching in NYC Usher In Next Phase Of Biden’s Color Revolution

    Submitted by Ben Sellers via Headline USA,

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    Commentary

    Pieces of the jigsaw puzzle that is the 2024 election heist all began fitting together Friday as illegal immigrants took over New York City’s Times Square to demand the abolishing of Immigration and Customs Enforcement in response to what was already a toothless and symbolic executive order from President Joe Biden.

    And so begins the long foretold Cloward–Piven strategy that will not only secure for the radical Left another election cycle, but perhaps a permanent toppling of the capitalist/democratic system via Marxist revolution.

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    In retrospect, it may seem clear all along that it was the “newcomers” and not the Hamas-indoctrinated college kids who would be the George Floyd rioters of the current season, after having invaded the country to the tune of some 11 million.

    The earlier protests were, of course, a test run for Soros-funded organizers to dust off their riot gear and update their four-year-old call lists for when a spontaneous flash-mob is needed, the underlying cause being moot (as many of the terrorist sympathizers demonstrated in on-the-scene interviews).

    Once all is said and done, it would not be the least bit surprising if the corrupt Biden administration has not only declared martial law, but granted de-facto citizenship and enfranchisement to all of the foreign interlopers, using the pretext that blanket amnesty will be the only way to placate these paid, well-organized rioters.

    However, American citizens may be too distracted dealing with other things to put up a political fight over the issue. Looming on the horizon is the prospect of a new pandemic-level shutdown that is now being advocated by both the World Health Organization and the United Nations over the livestock-borne bird flu. No matter that the one human fatality thus far documented is likely a hoax.

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    When one’s basic human needs are in question—such as the nation’s food supply, and access to friends and family—things like freedom and civil liberties may suddenly seem trivial.

    Meanwhile, the great MAGA champion himself, presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump, will be in jail, if that is where they want him to be.

    Doing so inevitably would result in an uprising of some kind from conservatives, which is the one thing that the Left could not control—although with AI-operated F-35 drones they might contain it fairly well.

    A united conservative front actively rallying against them is, nonetheless, a bad look for the illegitimate U.S. administration, particularly if the vast majority of the people sympathize with and support the movement.

    Rather, the Trump thread is likely to merge in the near future with the incessant efforts by ethically bankrupt Sens. Dick Durbin, D-Ill., and Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I., to discredit the U.S. Supreme Court, which will be forced to intervene in order to prevent the constitutional crisis that results from a local district attorney in a deep-blue city attempting to lock up the leading presidential candidate on spurious federal charges that not even the judge and jury seem to be clear on.

    Enter the aforementioned flash-mob rioters to threaten and intimidate the SCOTUS justices, having recently doxxed Samuel Alito by plastering pictures of his home in every leftist media outlet. Nothing is keeping these unhinged, bloodthirsty Bolsheviks from actually following through on “releasing the whirlwind,” to use the euphemism for assassination coined by Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y.

    Such an act, in their warped minds, would be payback for having been deprived of their due when Merrick Garland was prevented from stealing the seat held by the late, great Antonin Scalia; and when Amy Coney Barrett replaced their own icon, Ruth Bader Ginsburg. In a true dose of poetic justice, Garland would be complicit in the foul deed by failing to enforce the federal laws preventing it.

    Nonetheless, swapping out a single justice will not deliver them what they desire, which is to own the entire court system, so they will proceed to use whatever public outrage they engineer to push through more court oversight hearings, efforts to pack the court and even to put it under the direct purview of Garland’s Justice Department.

    The one saving grace might be the refusal of centrist Sens. Sinema, Manchin, Fetterman, etc., to go along with the ploy. But with brute force as the alternative, what choice will there be?

    Suffice it to say, the 11 million extra votes will be just the boost that the eventual Democrat candidate needs to prevail, and at that point, if Trump hasn’t had the good sense to flee, he will have at least three more show trials to look forward to while in Rikers Island.

    Don’t think for a moment that, as America slept, leftists haven’t spent the last half century gaming out such a sequence of events and waiting for their moment to come. And they will stop at nothing now that it has arrived.

    Ben Sellers is the editor of Headline USA. Follow him at twitter.com/realbensellers.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/09/2024 – 21:00

  • Teton Pass Collapse In Landslide Could Spark Worker Shortage In Jackson Hole 
    Teton Pass Collapse In Landslide Could Spark Worker Shortage In Jackson Hole 

    On Saturday morning, the Wyoming Department of Transportation (WY DOT) shared a Facebook post from Governor Mark Gordon. The post included footage of a landslide that swallowed a section of Teton Pass, which connects Jackson Hole with the communities around Victor, Idaho. 

    “This morning I met with state officials from the Wyoming Department of Transportation and Wyoming Office of Homeland Security to coordinate a response to the catastrophic landslide that has closed Teton Pass,” Gov. Gordon wrote in the post on Saturday. 

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    The governor said, “WYDOT geologists and engineers will be on site today to conduct an assessment and develop a long-term solution to rebuild the roadway,” adding, “At this point, we do not have an estimated timeline for the road to reopen.” 

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    “The buzz is it will be closed for several weeks or months,” Teton County Commission Chairman Luther Propst told local media outlet WyoFile. 

    With the closure of Teton Pass, a once convenient 35-minute journey now stretches to a grueling 1 hour and 35 minutes, or even longer if there are any detours. This is a big blow to the low-skilled workers of J-Hole who rely on this route due to the unaffordable living costs in the resort town. The new detour will only compound the challenges for these workers – and who knows – some may quit over the new commute.

    Propst noted, “The county’s looking at camping options at the fairgrounds” for Idaho commuters who work in Jackson Hole.

    Here’s what X users are saying…

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    Could J-Hole elites experience a worker shortage? Maybe Biden could send them some illegal aliens.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/09/2024 – 20:25

  • Politico Nukes 'Biden Business Dealings' Lie
    Politico Nukes ‘Biden Business Dealings’ Lie

    While President Joe Biden has repeatedly insisted he has nothing to do with his family’s business dealings – going so far as to say he’s never so much as discussed them with relatives, a new report from Politico completely destroys that lie.

    Illustration by Bill Kuchman/POLITICO (source images via AP, Getty Images, iStock)

    “I have never discussed, with my son or my brother or with anyone else, anything having to do with their businesses. Period,” said Biden. “

    “And what I will do is the same thing we did in our administration. There will be an absolute wall between personal and private [business interests] and the government. There wasn’t any hint of scandal at all when we were there. And I’m going to propose the same kind of strict, strict rules. That’s why I never talked with my son or my brother or anyone else — even distant family — about their business interests. Period.“

    As Politico notes, Joe Biden’s political journey, stretching back to his first Senate bid, has always been a family affair. His first campaign was significantly supported by his family, setting a precedent for how his personal and professional lives would intertwine. Throughout his career, Biden’s relatives have not only been a staple in his campaigns but have also engaged in business ventures that at times involved his political patrons, converting some business partners into campaign supporters.

    This longstanding blend of family, business, and politics has made it an absurd notion that Biden has distanced himself from the actions and ventures of his relatives, particularly his son Hunter Biden and his brother Jim Biden, whose foreign business dealings have been a continual source of controversy.

    Meanwhile…

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    What’s more, for years, Joe Biden shared key professional services with his family members: a bookkeeper with his son and a personal lawyer with his brother. This overlap extends beyond service providers to the very core of his advisory circle. Many of Biden’s closest staffers and advisers have, at different times, doubled as business associates for his relatives. These overlaps suggest an all-in-family approach that has persisted despite Biden’s assertions that he has kept a professional distance from his family’s business dealings.

    Investigations and Ethical Questions

    Particularly revealing is the hiring of the former head of Biden’s Secret Service detail by Jim Biden to investigate a Chinese executive, Patrick Ho, who Hunter Biden was doing business with in 2017. Despite claims of maintaining a professional distance, this move, ahead of a significant business meeting in Hong Kong, highlights how deeply enmeshed personal and professional lines can become. Jim Biden’s assertion during his February impeachment inquiry interview that he did not discuss business specifics with Hunter during the trip only adds layers to the opaque nature of the family’s business dealings.

    “10 for the Big Guy”

    One phrase found in a series of alleged emails linked to Hunter Biden — “10 for the big guy” — has become a focal point of controversy, drawing scrutiny to the business dealings of the president’s son and the implications for Biden. These emails, reportedly related to Hunter Biden’s interactions with the Chinese energy conglomerate CEFC, have raised questions about potential influence peddling and conflicts of interest.

    This email came to light as part of a larger trove of data discovered on a laptop that Hunter Biden left at a Delaware repair shop and never retrieved – and was recently entered into evidence as authentic by federal prosecutors during Hunter Biden’s ongoing trial for a federal firearms offense.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/09/2024 – 19:15

  • Will Hunter Take The Stand? He May Want To Think Twice Before Checking That Box
    Will Hunter Take The Stand? He May Want To Think Twice Before Checking That Box

    Authored by Jonathan Turley via jonathanturley.org,

    This weekend, the Hunter Biden team is reportedly debating whether to have him take the stand on Monday, a move rife with risk. Most criminal defendants avoid such appearances given the potential damage of a withering cross examination. Those risks were evident in the recent testimony of Hunter’s daughter, Naomi, which backfired badly on key points.

    I have sometimes been in the minority among defense attorneys and legal commentators on this question. In celebrity trials, a jury can feel alienated or even disrespected by a defendant not taking the stand. That was the case, in my view, with Martha Stewart. When a defendant brings forth a host of others to speak for him or her, the refusal to testify can become more glaring and concerning.

    Hunter Biden is in that position. He has had a host of relatives testify, including his daughter Naomi. When you put your daughter on the stand and subject her to a tough cross examination, many jurors can wonder how you can stay safely behind the defendant’s table.

    Yet, Naomi’s testimony is precisely why defense counsel are risk adverse on the question. She gave moving testimony on her love for her father and his struggle with addiction. However, her attempt to establish that Hunter was not using drugs at the time of his gun purchase fell apart on cross examination.  She testified that she was thrilled during this period with how “healthy” and clean her father appeared: “He seemed like the clearest I had seen him since my uncle died…I told him I was so proud of him and I was proud to be able to introduce Peter to him.”

    Prosecutors showed her text messages that told a different story. In some, Naomi appears alarmed by her father’s conduct and lack of responses. On October 18, for example, she texted “I’m sorry daddy, I can’t take this, I don’t know what to say.” That message coincides with messages from Hunter seeking to score drugs from a guy named Mookie and stating that he was doing crack in a car. In other messages, Naomi complains that he was not responding. She finally received a response when, at 2 a.m, Hunter asked her to have her boyfriend drop off keys to a truck for him in Manhattan. Naomi was asked if she saw the drug residue or paraphernalia in the truck.

    Any cross examination would focus less on Naomi than it would on Mookie.

    Any decision to put Hunter on the stand is obviously dependent on your defense strategy. As I have previously written, all of the defenses suggested by Abby Lowell in his opening argument collapsed within two days. That includes the suggestion that someone else checked the box on the form denying that Hunter was using drugs. These claims seem so unbelievable and unsupported that they might insult a jury. However, the real strategy in this open-and-shut case appears to be simple jury nullification. The defense is trying to get one or more jurors to ignore the law and the evidence to acquit Biden.

    Nullification efforts in the case appear to be a combination of both political and social association. First and foremost, this is Bidentown. It is the hometown of President Joe Biden and voted overwhelmingly for him in past elections. It is the opposite of the Manhattan trial of former President Donald Trump. This is the best possible jury pool for a Biden.

    Second, all of the jurors testified to knowing someone with drug problems. Hunter has written moving accounts of his struggle with addiction. Some jurors may resist convicting someone who has seemingly overcome the scourge of addiction.

    So, if this is a nullification strategy, does Hunter testifying help or hurt? The answer is that it could seal the deal or shatter it with jurors. Hunter will make a good witness on his struggle to overcome drugs and alcohol abuse. He can claim little or no memory of the gun store purchase. Hearing from him directly can establish a connection, even a bond, with jurors that could reinforce a nullification vote.

    However, it will also subject him to cross examination by prosecutors who have been lethal in their well-planned and well-executed case. They can delve into his texts and the later intervention by his family to deal with his self-destructive lifestyle. He also faces the potential of triggering new criminal offenses through perjury.

    That latter concern is particularly real after the formal referral of three House committees to Attorney General Merrick Garland. Hunter is accused of lying to Congress in his recent testimony on key issues under investigation. While many expect Garland to ignore the referral to protect the President and his family, the allegations are compelling and the Justice Department has previously prosecuted individuals in cases with far less support. This would appear a relatively easy perjury prosecution, but the politics may be insurmountable for Garland.

    Most attorneys would advise Hunter to remain behind the defense table and not take the stand. After all, this is a great jury rendering a verdict on a Biden in Bidentown with the First Lady seated behind him for much of the trial. They just need one. The risk of testimony is that Hunter could burst into flames on the stand and torch any chance to nullify the crime.

    We will know soon. However, if Hunter checks this box and testifies, it is the one decision that he will not be able to blame on others.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/09/2024 – 18:40

  • Bird Flu Triggers Supply Chain Snarls In Dairy Industry As "Farmers Increasingly Culled Cows" 
    Bird Flu Triggers Supply Chain Snarls In Dairy Industry As “Farmers Increasingly Culled Cows” 

    The latest US Department of Agriculture data shows bird flu has infected at least 80 dairy herds across ten states. There are growing concerns about rising cow mortalities from the virus and the risk of farmers culling cows to stop the spread. This could ignite economic stress across the farm belt and unleash a supply shock. 

    Reuters spoke with a USDA spokesperson who was aware of H5N1 virus-related deaths among cow herds but said that most cows recovered. No official figures have been provided on the number of cow mortalities in South Dakota, Michigan, Texas, Ohio, and Colorado. 

    Here’s more on the cow deaths: 

    In South Dakota, a 1,700-cow dairy sent a dozen of the animals to slaughter after they did not recover from the virus, and killed another dozen that contracted secondary infections, said Russ Daly, a professor with South Dakota State University and veterinarian for the state extension office who spoke with the farm.

    “You get sick cows from one disease, then that creates a domino effect for other things, like routine pneumonia and digestive issues,” Daly said.

    A farm in Michigan killed about 10% of its 200 infected cows after they too failed to recover from the virus, said Phil Durst, an educator with Michigan State University Extension who spoke with that farm.

    Michigan has more confirmed infections in cattle than any state as well as two of three confirmed cases of US dairy workers who contracted bird flu.

    In Colorado, some dairies reported culling cows with avian flu because they did not return to milk production, said Olga Robak, spokesperson for the state Department of Agriculture.

    Ohio Department of Agriculture spokesperson Meghan Harshbarger said infected cows have died in Ohio and other affected states, mostly due to secondary infections.

    The Texas Animal Health Commission also confirmed that cows have died from secondary infections at some dairy operations with avian flu outbreaks.

    Officials could not provide figures for the number of statewide cow mortalities.

    New Mexico’s state veterinarian, Samantha Uhrig, said farmers increasingly culled cows due to decreased milk production early in the outbreak, before the US even confirmed bird flu was infecting cattle. Culling decreased as farmers learned that most cows gradually recovered, she said. -Reuters 

    Last month, the USDA informed farmers lactating dairy cattle are not eligible for interstate transportation, which has snarled the dairy supply chain. 

    Southern dairy farms that raise baby calves from more northern states until they’re ready to be returned and milked have been impacted the most by delays in shipping when a herd tests positive for the virus, according to Joe Armstrong, a professor of cattle production at the University of Minnesota.

    “Some of these systems are built to constantly move animals, and if you can’t move them, you run out of space really fast,” Armstrong said. “This is big money.” –Bloomberg

    Shipping delays could intensify following the USDA’s announcement of expanded testing for dairy cows, which is likely to reveal more infections.

    “What’s clear is this disease has really slowed down the interstate movement of cattle,” Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-NM) told Bloomberg’s Skye Witley. 

    Traders are watching rising milk futures in Chicago, up more 27% since early April.

    Here’s a larger timeframe for milk futures. 

    The dairy industry could be in the beginning stages of a mess as farmers cull cows and supply chains become snarled due to bird flu.

    One major concern is whether the virus jumps from dairy to beef cows. If that’s the case, then culling beef cows to stop the spread could catapult retail prices even higher because the nation’s total herd population has collapsed to 1951 levels.

    Can you guess which billionaire has been advocating to ban cow farts?

    He also has fake meat to sell.

    Meanwhile…

    As we noted days ago, if the government starts claiming that culling the nation’s dairy and beef cows is the only way to combat bird flu, it will raise alarm bells that there might be an underlying agenda at play. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/09/2024 – 18:05

  • It's Time To Investigate The Virginia Retirement System
    It’s Time To Investigate The Virginia Retirement System

    Authored by Thomas Jones via RealClear Wire,

    Documents obtained by the American Accountability Foundation have revealed that Virginia retirees’ pension funds are being used to implement a far-left agenda. This is an outrageous betrayal. Pension fund managers should be focused on maximizing returns, not on pursuing ideological goals.

    The Virginia Retirement System (VRS), a state agency that manages the pensions of hundreds of thousands of state residents, holds voting rights at the annual shareholder meetings of companies in which they are invested.

    Typically, voting at these meetings focuses on shareholder resolutions related to furthering good corporate governance practices and maximizing returns for shareholders. But these shareholder meetings have become ideological battlefields, as woke liberal groups (left-wing nonprofits, unions, progressive state treasurers, and others) have adopted a strategy of purchasing just enough stock in big corporations to put forward proposals of their own geared toward imposing their leftist Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) vision. Sadly, on this battlefield, the bureaucrats at VRS are fighting alongside the woke Left.

    AAF’s review of proxy votes cast by VRS or its asset managers since 2022 found 74 votes supporting extreme leftist policies such as racial and gender pay-gap reports, efforts to defund conservative candidates and pro-business trade associations, radical climate policy, and pro-abortion initiatives.

    Here are just a few examples:

    • On May 24, 2023, VRS, advised by proxy advisor ISS, voted for Proposal 13 at Amazon, which called for additional reporting on gender and racial pay gaps at the company. This type of request for a “report” is a tactic used often by the Left to shame and intimidate corporations into adopting its preferred policies – in this case, racial and gender quotas. The proposal, brought forward by Arjuna Capital, chastised Amazon for “alleged unfair pay and working conditions” and claimed that “diversity in leadership is linked to superior stock performance and return on equity.” The proposal noted that “minorities represent 70 percent of Amazon’s workforce and 34 percent of leadership. Women represent 45 percent of the workforce and 23 percent of leadership.”
    • On May 31, 2023, VRS, advised by ISS, voted in favor of a resolution at Meta Platforms that called for a “report on data privacy regarding reproductive healthcare.” The resolution derided the Supreme Court’s 2022 Dobbs decision as “the revocation of the constitutional right to an abortion” and requested that Meta “issue a public report assessing the feasibility of diminishing the extent that the Company will be a target of abortion-related law enforcement requests.”
    • At the May 2022 annual shareholder meeting of supermajor oil and gas company Shell PLC, VRS’s investment manager, Lansdowne Partners, voted for a resolution calling for Shell to set and publish emissions targets in line with the Paris Climate Agreement. This is a stunning betrayal of the nearly 200,000 Virginians who depend on energy jobs for their livelihoods. But the resolution didn’t just affect the energy industry itself—it aimed to limit use of energy by everyone, requesting that Shell adopt emissions-reduction targets that apply not only to the company’s operations but also to the end use of its energy products.

    Laws and regulations covering racial issues, gender issues, abortion, and the environment should be decided by American voters – not by leftist activists and faceless corporate bureaucrats. But these are the forces that have come to be known as the ESG movement. They seek to circumvent our constitutional system of government in order to impose a far-left agenda that goes against the interests and values of the American people.

    The Virginia Retirement System’s complicity in this disgraceful scheme should be investigated fully and corrected immediately.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/09/2024 – 17:30

  • Warren Buffett Controls 3% Of Treasury Bill Market, More Than "International Organizations, Stablecoin Issuers …" 
    Warren Buffett Controls 3% Of Treasury Bill Market, More Than “International Organizations, Stablecoin Issuers …” 

    Berkshire Hathaway has struggled to find sizable deals in recent quarters, leaving Warren Buffett sitting on a mountain of cash and cash equivalents. According to JPMorgan analysts, Buffett now wields control over a staggering 3% of the entire US Treasury Bill market.

    At Berkshire’s annual meeting in May, Buffett told the audience, “It’s a fair assumption” that its cash pile would exceed $200 billion at the end of this quarter amid the dearth of big-ticket deals due to very few opportunities. 

    Buffet’s growing cash and or cash equivalents stockpiles intrigued fixed-income analysts at JPM, including a team led by Teresa Ho, who wrote in a recent note to clients that Berkshire Hathaway keeps excess cash primarily invested in T-bills. 

    “Over the years, their T-bill position has grown so large that, as of March-end, it owned $158bn in T-bills, comprising 3% of the market,” Ho said. 

    She continued, “Berkshire Hathaway currently holds more T-bills than international organizations, stablecoin issuers, offshore MMFs, or LGIPs.” 

    Berkshire Hathaway’s current cash position is about 17.5%, which is in line with its long-term average when measured against the firm’s total assets. Since 1997, the firm has kept cash on its balance sheet at an average of 13%. 

    Current figures from Bloomberg show Berkshire’s cash and cash equivalents total $188 billion. 

    “We’d love to spend it, but we won’t spend unless we think there’s really something that has very little risk and can make us a lot of money,” Buffett said at last month’s annual meeting. 

    Buffett and his companies are cautious about finding deals as the high-for-longer interest rate environment unfolds, especially after Friday’s screaming hot payrolls data forced Citi to shift its first rate cut forecast from July to September. 

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    Fed swaps are only pricing in 1.58 cuts through the end of the year. 

    The absence of deals will only mean Berkshire’s giant cash and cash equivalents pile will continue growing until valuations become more attractive. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/09/2024 – 16:55

  • Right-Wing Tsunami: France "Stunned" After Macron Announces Snap Elections Following Crushing Defeat In European Parliament Vote
    Right-Wing Tsunami: France “Stunned” After Macron Announces Snap Elections Following Crushing Defeat In European Parliament Vote

    Update (4:20pm ET):

    Following a historic loss to Marine Le Pen’s right-wing party in European elections on Sunday, French President Emmanuel Macron said he is dissolving the French parliament.

    Macron said France will hold new elections on June 30 and July 7, a high-stakes maneuver that the WSJ said “stunned” the nation after projections based on early ballot counts came in for Sunday’s elections for the European Parliament. The projections showed National Rally garnering around 31% of the vote, twice the support for Macron’s Renew Party.

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    “This is a serious, weighty decision, but above all it’s an act of trust,” Macron said. “Confidence in you, confidence in the ability of the French people to make the right choice for themselves and for future generations.”

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    National Rally leader Jordan Bardella said Sunday’s results marked an “unprecedented rout for the powers that be,” adding that it was “day-one of the post-Macron era.”

    Macron’s decision to call parliamentary elections opens the door for his party, which is deeply unpopular at the moment, to shed even more seats to rival parties in France’s National Assembly, the country’s lower house of Parliament.

    If that occurs, Macron could be forced to appoint a prime minister from another party, such as the center-right Les Républicains, in a power-sharing arrangement known in France as a “cohabitation.”

    “A dissolution means a cohabitation,” said Alain Duhamel, a prominent political analyst.

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    The shocking news in France comes after Europe’s right wing parties put on a show of strength in this weekend’s EU elections, which also reinforced German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s position lagging two rival parties.

    Sunday’s results still appeared to leave the mainstream pro-EU parties with a lock on power in Brussels, if only for the time being. The center-right EU political grouping that now leads the bloc looked set to win the most seats in the European Parliament, boosting European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s hopes of keeping her job for a second term. She has forged a close working relationship with the Biden administration.

    Still, France’s far-right opposition party National Rally looked set to be among the pan-European election’s biggest winners. Marine Le Pen’s party is on target to become the largest single party in the European Parliament. Projections based on early ballot counts on Sunday evening suggested National Rally had gained roughly 31% of the vote, twice the support for Macron’s Renew Party.

    After the French results, Macron announced he was dissolving parliament to call fresh elections. His party already lacked a majority in the National Assembly. The first round of the elections will take place June 30, followed by a second on July 7, Macron said.

    As reported earlier, the Social Democratic Party of German chancellor Scholz also apparently faced a drubbing. According to national exit polls, it was running third behind the far-right Alternative for Germany and the clear winner, Germany’s opposition center-right alliance.

    The elections, held from Thursday through Sunday, were for the 720 members of the European Parliament. Up to 370 million voters were eligible according to EU figures, although turnout in the elections is usually modest. While the European Parliament’s main powers are to approve or amend EU rules, laws and trade deals, the twice-decade vote offers a potent indicator of Europe’s political mood. The legislature also gets to approve the EU’s new leadership team.

    As the WSJ notes, “Sunday’s results point to trouble for the EU leadership’s ability to pursue its environmental goals and indicate that pressure will mount to tighten migration rules under right-wing pressure. The vote is also likely to give a greater voice—at least within the parliament—to nationalist and left-wing critics of EU support for Ukraine.”

    Despite pro-EU parties’ setbacks, they appeared to hold enough seats to cobble together a majority of lawmakers to approve their priorities. An assessment from exit poll-aggregator Europe Elects suggested that center-right, centrist and center-left political blocs would secure 413 seats in the new parliament, a clear majority. Right-wing nationalist parties look set to secure at least 160 votes.

    While the results push European politics to the right, divisions among the nationalist and far-right EU parties are likely to blunt the impact of their gains. Some right-wing leaders have called for an alliance across the movement, but that appears unlikely.

    Meanwhile, markets are not too happy: European bonds are down as are European futures, while according to Macquarie, the Euro faces downside risks after latest developments from parliamentary elections at the weekend,

    “The bottom line is that while political uncertainty may mount as an issue in the US this summer, we didn’t discount that the same will happen in Europe too,” said Thierry Wizman, strategist in New York, who had flagged deepening political uncertainty in Europe as an “underappreciated risk” to markets three weeks ago

    “Between this, anticipation of the National Assembly election in France, after which the National Rally could get to install their own Prime Minister, and potentially high CPI in the US, we’re sticking to our view that EUR/USD could get to 1.05 and stay around there.”

    * * *

    Earlier

    As we await the results from the European Parliament vote (previewed here), the exit polls from Germany are already in and they are a disaster for both the alliance of French president Macron, who was steamrolled by Marine Le Pen, and for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats, which crashed to their worst-ever result in European Parliament elections Sunday, as conservative and right-wing parties soared across the old continent, a result which will help tilt the European parliament further towards a more anti-immigration and anti-green stance.

    According to preliminary results from five countries, right-wing parties are estimated to have won at least 33 of the 174 seats available in Austria, Cyprus, Germany, Greece and the Netherlands, according to official exit polls from those countries, up from 19 seats at the last election in 2019. And – as the ultraliberal FT admits – “the surge, at the expense of liberal and Green parties, would complicate European commission president Ursula von der Leyen’s bid for a second term as head of the EU’s executive.”

    In Germany, Chancellor Scholz’s Social Democrats crashed to their worst-ever result, falling to third place with 14% of the vote behind the populist and nationalist Alternative for Germany, which has become the second-largest German party in the European Parliament with 16.4%. The conservative CDU/CSU alliance was on course for a comfortable win with 29.6%, according to an exit poll Sunday from public broadcaster ARD. The other two parties in Scholz’s ruling alliance — the Greens and the Free Democrats — got 12% and 5% respectively.

    As reported overnight, the German exit polls are among the first results from the European election, which started Thursday and culminates Sunday, and will determine the make-up of the bloc’s legislative assembly. The outcome will establish which leaders have the most leverage to claim the EU’s top jobs, including the presidents of the European Commission and the European Council.

    The catastrophic showing for Scholz’s coalition underscores the increasing difficulty the German government faces in leading European policy. Support for Scholz’s ruling alliance in Berlin has dropped to record lows in recent months, with the three parties’ combined support currently around 35%, down from more than 50% in the 2021 federal election.

    As Bloomberg reports, CDU General Secretary Carsten Linnemann questioned whether Scholz retains the authority to lead the country and blamed the ruling coalition’s policies for the rise of the AfD. “He was the one on the election posters so really he should submit to a vote of confidence,” Linnemann said.

    The AfD managed to post substantial gains despite experiencing a series of setbacks in recent weeks involving bribery and spying scandals. The Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht, or BSW, which she co-founded in January after splitting from the Left party, got 5.7%.

    Kevin Kuehnert, the SPD general secretary, said the party won’t be seeking “scapegoats” and insisted that it had been the right decision to make Scholz a central figure in the election campaign despite his relatively low approval rating.

    “For us this is an extremely bitter result,” Kuehnert said in an interview with ARD. “We will have to look at where we weren’t good in our mobilization,” he added. “The promise now is that we’ll fight back from this.”

    Kuehnert said the priority for the coalition in coming weeks is to broker an agreement on next year’s budget, which has been another source of infighting in the three-party alliance.

    Amid continued losses for the establishment, right-wing and conservative parties in Europe are slated to pick up more seats compared with the last election five years ago, as migration swings to the top of the political agenda, while the EU’s ambitious climate goals may face greater hurdles.

    Still, at the EU level, centrist parties on the left and right are due to maintain their grip on the majority. That means a degree of continuity on key policies at a time of immense geopolitical uncertainty with Russia’s war on Ukraine raging to the east and China becoming ever more assertive.

    As further discussed overnight, the EU is also confronting challenges including how to maintain fiscal sustainability while investing in a greener future, boosting the competitiveness of European manufacturing and strengthening defense capabilities amid the prospect of Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency, which could impact everything from trade to environment policy.

    Germany’s next national vote is due in the fall of next year. The ruling parties are expected to fare just as poorly in their next major electoral test — three regional ballots in September in the eastern states of Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg with the AfD is leading in the polls in the three states, but is unlikely to get into government as all other parties have ruled out joining it in coalition.

    In the Netherlands, Dutch conservative Geert Wilders notched significant gains on Thursday, though fell short of winning the most Dutch seats in the European Parliament. That victory was claimed by a coalition of left-wing parties.

    In perhaps the biggest shock of all, however, the French right-wing has inflicted a staggering defeat on the Macron alliance: with Le Pen’s gathering 32-33% of the vote to Macron group’s 15% according to pollsters.

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    According to AFP, voter turnout in France was up two points as of 5pm, with 45.26% of eligible voters casting ballots compared with 43.29% in 2019. The turnout for EU elections is generally low, but the last elections in 2019 showed the first uptick in 30 years with a turnout of 50.7 percent.

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    In Austria, the right-wing, national-conservative anti-immigrant Freedom Party was in the lead with an estimated 27 percent, Austrian national broadcaster ORF said. If the number is confirmed later Sunday, it would be the first time the OFP wins the European Parliament election in Austria.

    The conservative People’s Party (OVP) and the Social Democrats (SPO) are currently too close to call, it said, estimated to have raked in 23.5 percent and 23 percent of the votes respectively.

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    Finally in Spain, more of the same anti-establishment, anti-liberal, anti-immigrant tsunami:

    • *SPAIN’S OPPOSITION CONSERVATIVES LEAD IN EU VOTE: EXIT POLL

    About 360 million people are eligible to vote for the 720 lawmakers who will serve in the EU assembly for the next five years, 96 of them from Germany. A majority of the 27 member nations are holding their ballots on Sunday, with results due to trickle in throughout the evening. Results from France are due after 8 p.m. local time.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/09/2024 – 16:25

  • Did Roaring Kitty Just Kill The Bull Market?
    Did Roaring Kitty Just Kill The Bull Market?

    Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

    My intuition is telling me this is it. This is the end of the bull market.

    Before I get into my reasoning, I want to remind my readers that this is not financial advice, and I have been wrong about the market being overdue for a pullback over the last 2 1/2 years since interest rates have started to rise.

    About a year ago, I corrected myself and began a series of mea culpas, explaining that it was my timing that was off, but also that I still believed the mathematics of 5.5% interest rates were all but a guarantee that the market and other financial assets, including things like real estate and commodities, at some point would have to deflate.

    I didn’t set out this past weekend with premeditated intentions of writing an article about why I think the market has peaked for the time being. Rather, it was a string of events that took place over the last 48 to 72 hours that have my spider senses tingling.

    I think the shark has been jumped, the tab has come due, and the American consumer, as well as the retail investor, are completely exasperated, out of options, and out of ideas. Here’s my reasoning.

    It was just a day or two ago that I wrote about Nvidia and why I thought it had become a disproportionately large risk to the overall market. The stock now represents 6.5% of the S&P 500, an astronomical amount for one name to make up a 500-name index, and appears to be hitting peak levels of hysteria, as evidenced by CEO Jensen Huang signing autographs on the breasts of women at computer shows.

    On top of Nvidia’s mind-numbing S&P concentration, single-handedly driving broader market moves, I raised the question of whether or not the growth that the market expects from the company could be far overshooting the company’s actual trajectory in years to come, despite the fact that artificial intelligence will likely remain in a secular bull market for years to come.

    No sooner did I publish that article than all eyes turned to “Roaring Kitty” on Friday.

    For those unfamiliar with Roaring Kitty, also known as Keith Gill, he is the man that stoked the flames of excitement with GameStop’s astronomical short squeeze higher some years back, and the man who profited the most handsomely — about $40 million to $50 million in the first run up — as a result.

    He has become somewhat of a legend among retail investors and saw his fellowship increase exponentially in the days, weeks, months, and years after the initial GameStop squeeze higher. They even made a movie out of his story, called Dumb Money, with Paul Dano in the starring role.

    At this blog and at QTR central, we have no beef with Gill. I though the movie Dumb Money was great and I generally find any type of anomaly in the system that temporarily shifts the power back to the people interesting (hence my curiosity around bitcoin). And I generally root for any story that takes away from Cathie Wood’s CNBC airtime.

    GameStop stock has been bubbling higher over the last couple of weeks, making retail investors wonder whether a repeat of history—and subsequently their chance of getting rich—is possible again. Hell, on Thursday night last week, GameStop shares had reached all the way into the $60 range before it was announced Friday morning that the company would be selling stock to raise cash at the company’s inflated prices.

    As usual, price becomes a rationing mechanism, and GameStop is getting the deal of the century by selling into this retail euphoria. The company added more supply to the market and GameStop wound up finishing the day on Friday at $28.

    But the last few runs up in GameStop haven’t stopped roaring Kitty from taking what used to be around a $50 million bankroll and parlaying it into what appears to be a nearly quarter-of-a-billion-dollar bankroll.

    It’s difficult to try and figure out how he could have amassed such wealth without trading in the name after recently reactivating himself on his Twitter account and posting this Tweet-gone-round-the-world.

     

    One thing driving the euphoria in GameStop shares heading into Friday was the expectation that Gill might do something crazy on his live stream. Would he come out and buy another couple million shares live? Would he introduce some grand plan that would help shares skyrocket even higher and punish shorts even further? Is it possible he would exercise his options live on the air, leading to the entire stock market breaking? People were waiting with bated breath to see what his plan was.

    But while everybody was waiting for Gill to answer this question, reality was already setting in with GameStop shares. The company’s issuance of new stock was diluting existing investors and making it more difficult for the stock to move higher.

    As the stock percolated around the $30 to $35 level before the live stream began, a queue of interested investors, analysts, and market participants lined up to see what Gill had to say. By the time he went live at about 12:20 Eastern time on Friday, there were over 600,000 people watching his live stream.

    The format was reminiscent of the original live stream Gill used to do before the first GameStop run-up: the screen was structured in the same way, he poured himself a beer, he gave everybody a look at his portfolio holdings, and he ran back a half-assed thesis on why he thinks GameStop could turn around its business for the long term.

    It was what he didn’t do that made his appearance a “sell the news” event. He didn’t say anything unexpected, he didn’t offer up a war cry or a price target, nor did he reveal some intricate trickery to try to further stick it to “the man” in the hedge fund industry. The appearance was devoid of hype, devoid of actual analysis, and uninteresting enough that the number of live viewers started to dwindle as quickly as 10 or 20 minutes into it.

    I’m not saying there won’t be an audience for Gill in the future, because there will be. And chances are, it’ll always be a multiple of my outreach. His stream sits at the intersection of the stock market, the roulette table, a late night Mountain Dew fueled Dungeons and Dragons game and the underdog plots of the movies Rudy and Rocky combined. And there’s always going to be an audience for that.

    But there was something about watching the number of viewers on his stream dwindle in real-time that caused a thought to wash over me with a calm resolve as though I had been a Buddhist monk in seclusion, meditating about it for years:

    “If this isn’t the absolute peak of this market cycle, I don’t know what is.”

    Leading into the stream, I was taken back by how 600,000 people could be watching.

    🔥 24 Hours Only: 80% OFF: Offering up my largest discount of the year for Fringe Finance. Subscribe in the next 24 hours and you can take 80% off an annual plan. 

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    The enormity of the number of people tuning in to watch somebody host their own version of stock-market-ComicCon was fascinating to me.

    On one hand, I loved it because it was probably 10 times the amount of viewership CNBC got at any point during the day Friday, which furthers my long-held belief that the mainstream financial media is generally useless and can be easily replaced, but on the other, I started to wonder if this could be the biggest “sell the news” event in retail investor history.

    If one wanted to generalize and put a bow on the retail investor base from this most recent market cycle, there would be no better way to do it than the people that hang out on r/WallStreetBets.

    The Reddit crowd and the people who started the meme stock frenzy are the quintessential examples of the everyday investor for this particular market cycle. And, frankly, they’re outright amusing: they have a gripe with “the man”, they love a good underdog story, they’re slightly less informed than they probably should be but are doing their damndest to learn, they ridicule the industry’s norms and they’re self-deprecating — all of which, the last two especially, make them tough for me to hate.

    But they’re still arguably the lowest rung of retail money on the Wall Street totem pole — a designation I’m sure they’d embrace.

    I’m not trying to poke fun at them in the slightest, but only to make the objective point that its fair to think that once they have fired their last bullets or have psychologically capitulated, we could be seeing this lowest rung of market investors lead the charge of others out of the market. Once the necessity of raising cash and de-leveraging starts, it has a tendency to snowball as price pressure comes in. First it’s the meme stocks — and then its very easy to see how it can move to more serious names like Nvidia, which, again, I’ve said is basically the entire S&P 500. Here’s a post from r/WallStreetBets this weekend:

    Now, multiply that by a couple million investors who just got trounced by GameStop to end last week.

    I couldn’t quite put my finger on what felt different about this last GameStop run-up, but now I know.

    While the first squeeze higher in the name was fueled by a tidal wave of excess liquidity and downtime as a result of the Covid pandemic, the latest run-up felt like one last desperate attempt to chase losses.

    While the first run-up felt like it may have been motivated to make some type of statement against Wall Street, however misguided, this second run-up feels like the sole purpose is to try for everybody to repeat the rare success that Gill himself had during the first run-up.

    This time around, it feels as though hundreds of thousands, or millions, of retail investors are simply hoping that history will repeat itself and they will be positioned at the right place at the right time for one last bite of the apple.

    Put simply, as is the case when trying to relive any great moments of days past, it simply isn’t the same the second time around.

    And in the wreckage of the failed experiment this time around, people are not going to be replete and flush with cash like they were at the end of Covid. As I have consistently pointed out on this blog, consumer credit and personal savings metrics look nothing short of atrocious, with consumer credit ballooning to all-time highs and personal savings hitting lows.

    Source: Zero Hedge

    And as this below chart about retail sales indicates, the American consumer is simply tapped out.

    There is a huge difference between taking a wildcard shot on GameStop and still having a job or savings to fall back on and firing your last bullets of desperation with literally no other plan and no other option for replacing the capital destroyed as a result.

    The entire idea that short sellers were repressing the company to begin with and that manipulating GameStop stock higher was somehow going to save the company was partially misguided to begin with. Now, in order for GameStop to save itself as a result of its ballooning stock price, it has to issue shares and dilute holders.

    The more shares it issues, the tougher the squeeze becomes, and it soon becomes very clear that “investors” following Roaring Kitty now are one half of a Chinese finger trap that, at some point, they’re not going to be able to get out of.

    I can’t predict what’s going to happen to GameStop over the next few weeks: maybe we do some type of repeat of history, maybe Roaring Kitty becomes a billionaire. But extrapolated over a longer period of time than a couple weeks, reality, mathematics, and the macroeconomic environment are going to take hold and eventual gains for those who hold will, in my opinion, be limited.

    There’s always ways out of bear markets. It used to just be recession and then eventual growth in productivity. Nowadays it’s excessive money printing. I’m not saying we’re heading into a Great Depression that will last decades. But its foolish to think there won’t be any rough road ahead for markets. And Friday’s fiasco was a warning sign, in my opinion.

    In fact, Friday was a shining beacon at the very peak of the mountaintop for the market if you ask me. What better way to justify attempting to call a short-term market top than watching those who can least afford it shell out what little cash they have left? When you combine this with the backdrop of pure euphoria in Nvidia, the one stock that is seemingly driving the market by itself, combined with lackluster retail sales data, rising delinquencies, defaults, supply and demand in the housing market starting to rebalance, and the fact that any cuts to rates to “save” a crash will likely take 18 to 24 months to work their way through the system – you have, in my opinion, the best case yet for arguing the worst is yet to come.

    Now read:

    QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. These positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/09/2024 – 16:20

  • Israel's Gantz Quits Coalition Government, Charges Netanyahu With Making "Total Victory Impossible"
    Israel’s Gantz Quits Coalition Government, Charges Netanyahu With Making “Total Victory Impossible”

    Israeli opposition leader Benny Gantz on Sunday announced that he is quitting Israel’s emergency government under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. 

    In a statement he blamed Netanyahu for making “total victory impossible” and further accused him of neglecting achieving the release of the remaining hostages. Gantz blasted Netanyahu and urged him to prioritize returning the hostages above his own “political survival”. Netanyahu’s coalition still holds a 64-member majority in the Knesset, and won’t immediately fall apart, but this is expected to unleash destabilization toward an unclear outcome.

    Gantz was initially expected to announce his departure Saturday, but postponed it amid news of the successful IDF hostage recovery operation in central Gaza, which resulted in the return of four Israelis in good health.

    Below are Gantz’s words wherein he called on other coalition leaders as well as members of the Knesset to join him in forming a new government, and to hold new future elections: 

    Exiting the coalition, National Unity chairman Benny Gantz calls on all members of the Knesset “who understand where we are going” to join forces with him and “obey the command of your conscience,” particularly Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.

    “Yoav, we have known each other for many years. Even when there were tensions between us, I always respected and appreciated you. In this war – I learned to appreciate you even more,” he says of his now-erstwhile war cabinet colleague.

    “You are a brave and determined leader and above all – a patriot. At this time, leadership and courage are not only saying what is right – but doing what is right,” he adds.

    He tells the nation he is not a conman and nor is he a politician who will put his political career above the needs of the state. “I will promise you one thing: I’m prepared to die for your children,” he says. “My colleagues and will always stand up and be counted when the country needs us… at any political price. I risked my life for the state in the line of fire dozens of times,” he says, and vows he won’t be deterred by political risk.

    Gantz also apologizes to the families of the hostages for failing to save their loved ones. “We did a lot [but] failed when it came to results,” he says. “We haven’t been able to get many of them back home yet. The responsibility is also mine.”

    Gantz has also previously punched hard against the more extreme members of Netanyahu’s coalition, calling them “fanatics”…”If you choose the path of fanatics and lead the entire nation to the abyss — we will be forced to quit the government,” he has warned in prior weeks leading up to Sunday.

    The centrist politician had already previously verbalized a plan to hold new elections by October, and three weeks ago he demanded in a provocative ultimatum that Netanyahu had until June 8 to present a clear strategic plan for the Gaza war.

    Gantz hopes to inspire a domino effect of departures, eventually collapsing the Netanyahu war government…

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    Huge anti-Netanyahu protests have continued in Tel Aviv and in front of government buildings and even Netanyahu’s residence, and have been led by hostage victims’ families. They are outraged there’s been lack of clarity or prioritization of getting the rest of the hostages home, also as truce negotiations with Hamas have all but collapsed.

    Gantz’s Tamano-Shata party has previously stated that “The 7th of October is a disaster that requires us to go back in order to receive the public’s trust, to establish a broad and stable unity government that can lead us safely in the face of the enormous challenges in security, the economy and, above all, in Israeli society. Submitting the bill now will allow us to bring it up in the current session.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/09/2024 – 15:45

  • It Leaked From A US-Backed Lab
    It Leaked From A US-Backed Lab

    Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

    For The New York Times, which started this whole fiasco dating from Feb. 27, 2020, with a podcast designed to drum up disease panic, it’s been a drip, drip, drip of truthiness ever since.

    A fortnight ago, the paper finally decided to report on vaccine injury from shots that vast majorities never needed and that stop neither infection nor transmission. And now, as of June 3, we have as decisive an article as one can imagine that shows that “a laboratory accident is the most parsimonious explanation of how the pandemic began.”

    “Whether the pandemic started on a lab bench or in a market stall, it is undeniable that U.S. federal funding helped to build an unprecedented collection of SARS-like viruses at the Wuhan institute, as well as contributing to research that enhanced them,” the article reads.

    “Advocates and funders of the institute’s research, including Dr. Fauci, should cooperate with the investigation to help identify and close the loopholes that allowed such dangerous work to occur. The world must not continue to bear the intolerable risks of research with the potential to cause pandemics.”

    The author is scientist Alina Chan of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. For purposes of documentation, let’s go through the points she makes.

    1. The SARS-like virus that caused the pandemic emerged in Wuhan, Hubei Province, the Chinese city where the world’s foremost research lab for SARS-like viruses is located.

    2. The year before the outbreak, the Wuhan Institute, working with U.S. partners, had proposed creating viruses with SARS‑CoV‑2’s defining feature.

    3. The Wuhan lab pursued this type of work under low biosafety conditions that could not have contained an airborne virus as infectious as SARS‑CoV‑2.

    4. The hypothesis that COVID-19 came from an animal at the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan is not supported by strong evidence.

    5. Key evidence that would be expected if the virus had emerged from the wildlife trade is still missing.

    Keep in mind that people saying exactly this from the very outset of the crisis were censored by social media at the behest of government agencies. Media personalities ridiculed this view. It was called a wild conspiracy theory, unworthy of any respectable and responsible person. This went on for three years, with brutal results. People lost large channels and social media followers and accounts. This ruined whole livelihoods.

    Now, here we are four years later, and we have the paper of record willing to admit that it was true all along.

    Yes, it is infuriating.

    Why does this matter? Because it is the turning point in the history of modern civilization. All the top public health officials had suspicions of this from the very outset. We know this from their own writings.

    Instead of opening a clear and open investigation, they pursued a different path: Deny the leak, roll out the supposed antidote (vaccine), use experimental technology, and lock down the world’s population to stop the spread so that the vaccine would get the credit for ending the pandemic.

    That’s the summary of what happened, based on my four years of research into this. In other words, to deflect blame, these people hatched an audacious plot to wreck rights and liberties the world over, in a futile attempt to prohibit natural exposure from ending the pathogenic wave (as always happened before). Instead, they would use the crisis to shove through approval of a technology that had never before received regulatory approval.

    This explains the disparagement of natural immunity, the absence of seroprevalence tests, the removal of repurposed generics from the market that could have helped people, the rise of censorship of any dissident scientists, and the complete absence of any serious research into early spread in the last quarter of 2019. It’s quite simply an astonishing plot of immense importance to the whole of the world, all stemming from an attempt to cover up a lab leak.

    That’s why the topic is important. This is not just a technical point. It is the first chapter of a wild and seemingly fictional novel of apocalyptic implications. The House subcommittee now investigating the public health response is barely scratching the surface in public, but behind the scenes, there is plenty of knowledge among investigators that there is much more going on.

    Here’s the key point. The national media does not want this discussed. The agencies don’t want this investigated. The tech companies that censored people all along do not want this considered. The Democrats certainly don’t want this subject pursued. Many Republicans don’t want to examine this in any detail.

    There is only one force at work that is pushing any of this forward, and that is public opinion, which, in turn, is fed by the handful of writers, researchers, scientists, moms, and many other grassroots people who correctly refuse to let this go.

    This is the only reason these hearings are happening. It is the only path to getting the truth.

    Of this, I’m thoroughly convinced. If we think the American people have already lost trust in public health and government, we haven’t seen anything yet. Once the whole story is out in the open, and we are headed in this direction, we’ll see a collapse without precedent.

    The timeline is going far too slowly. There is no excuse for why we are only getting clarity on the basics fully four years later. Meanwhile, there is absolutely no basis for approving any more funding for these agencies or biodefense research and no basis for approving any new treaties or agreements from the World Health Organization (WHO).

    Let’s not forget that it was the WHO that pushed hard for the world to copy the Chinese Communist Party in its crazy virus-control methods of violating human rights on a scale that should never have been tolerated in the West. And yet based on that advice, the United States, the UK, the European Union, and nearly every nation in the world adopted these policies, in contradiction to all laws and human rights.

    Out of nowhere, our Constitution and Bill of Rights were overridden by bureaucracies about which most Americans knew absolutely nothing.

    It boggles the mind that this happened, and we are still paying an egregious price in terms of inflation, learning loss, excess death, collapse of public health, expansion of government, pervasive censorship, and much more.

    It felt like martial law at the time, and it is not clear that this ever went away. We absolutely must know the truth. More than that, we need to repudiate every bit of the COVID-19 response, including the mandates to get a vaccine that was, in fact, never proven to be safe or effective.

    So yes, it matters that this virus likely leaked from a U.S.-funded lab. That was the beginning of the story. There is much more to it.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/09/2024 – 15:10

  • Yale Law Professor Shreds Trump Verdict, Cites "Serious" Constitutional Problems
    Yale Law Professor Shreds Trump Verdict, Cites “Serious” Constitutional Problems

    Yale Law Professor Jed Rubenfeld (whose wife is the “Tiger Mom“) says that Donald Trump’s ‘hush money’ conviction has serious legal issues, giving the former president multiple legal avenues to overturn the verdict.

    In his new show, Straight Down the Middle, Rubenfeld notes three obvious issues for Trump’s legal team to use;

    • Selective Prosecution: The possibility that the prosecution was driven by political motives against Trump, which if true, could constitute selective prosecution—a practice deemed unconstitutional as it involves targeting an individual for prosecution based on discriminatory reasons.

    • Vagueness of Charges: The indictment did not clearly specify the secondary crime Trump was accused of concealing through falsified business records, potentially violating the Sixth Amendment right of an accused to be informed of the nature and cause of the accusations against him.

    • Non-unanimous Jury Verdict: The judge’s instruction allowing the jury to be non-unanimous regarding the specifics of the secondary crime could infringe upon the constitutional requirement for unanimous verdicts in criminal prosecutions, challenging the fairness of the trial.

    “The indictment charged Trump with a two-step crime falsifying business records to conceal a second crime but never said what that second crime was,” he said, adding “Under the Sixth Amendment every criminal defendant has a right to know the charges against him.“

    He also suggested that Trump could sue Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg and other state actors in federal court and ask for an emergency temporary restraining order (TRO) against Judge Juan Merchan against entering a judgement of guilt.

    “You’re not a convicted felon because of a jury verdict. You’re not convicted unless the judge enters a judgment of guilt against you. The judge still has the power, as I told you before, to throw out that verdict and enter a judgment of acquittal. You are not convicted until the judge enters that judgment of guilt,” he said.

    “So what would this federal case be about? In this federal action, Trump would sue District Attorney Bragg and other state actors and ask the judge, the federal judge, for an emergency temporary restraining order halting Judge Merchan from entering that judgment of guilt until the federal courts have had an opportunity to review and rule on the serious constitutional arguments that exist here.”

    Watch:

    According to Rubenfeld, the Trump case is a “very bad look for this country,” adding that it’s “an especially bad look when the folks bring in the case and the judge deciding it are members of the opposing political party. And it’s an even worse look when the crime is so unclear that the state is hiding the ball about what the actual charges are right up through the trial and indeed into the trial.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/09/2024 – 14:35

  • From Bloody Biden Head To Code Pink 'War Criminal' Display, White House Protest Gets Heated
    From Bloody Biden Head To Code Pink ‘War Criminal’ Display, White House Protest Gets Heated

    Update (2000ET): Thousands of demonstrators surrounded the White House on Saturday to protest President Joe Biden’s response to Israel’s military strikes on Gaza.

    Chants of “Free Palestine!”, “Genocide is our red line”, and “Israel bombs, your taxes pay” could be heard from protesters – many of whom were bussed in from over two dozen cities.

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    Footage posted on X shows protesters getting rowdy as police attempted to make an arrest. As a crowd chants, “Let her go!” officers deployed pepper spray (at 17 seconds).

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    The woman was not arrested, and the cops were chased away, with one protester saying “get out of here motherfuckers.“

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    The demonstration featured a coalition of groups, including the Council on American Islamic Relations (CAIR) and Code Pink, which featured protesters dressed as Biden, Antony Blinken, Netanyahu, and Israel’s Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant.

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    It was a diverse crowd to say the least…

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    One pro-Hamas group even featured a Biden mask covered in blood.

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    Smoke bombs were lit:

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    And protesters threw bottles at a police officer, breaking into a chant of “Fascist!”

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    Oh, and there was a giant pride parade a few streets over.

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    *   *   *

    President Biden loves taxpayer-funded walls, except for former President Trump’s southern border wall. The elderly president has a beautiful taxpayer-funded wall around his beach home in exclusive Rehoboth Beach (a destination for rich liberals), where the poors and illegal aliens are not allowed. On the topic of walls this weekend, another taxpayer-funded wall was quietly erected around the White House in recent days.

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    Biden’s ‘White House Wall’ was erected on Friday ahead of ANSWER (Act Now to Stop War and End Racism), an anti-war group founded three days after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks, along with other activist groups, including CODEPINK and the Council on American Islamic Relations, who are all planning to surround the White House for Palestine on Saturday. 

    Photo: Craig Birchfield

    ANSWER posted on X numerous videos that show busses of pro-Palestinian protesters en route to Washington, DC, Saturday morning. 

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    “In preparation for the events this weekend in Washington, DC, that have the potential for large crowds to gather, additional public safety measures have been put in place near the White House complex,” a US Secret Service spokesperson told Reuters. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/09/2024 – 14:11

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Jun 09

Today’s News 9th June 2024

  • The Speech That Military Recruiters Don't Want You To Hear
    The Speech That Military Recruiters Don’t Want You To Hear

    Authored by Casey Carlisle via AntiWar.com,

    Before we get into this, let’s discuss what most would label “a hypothetical.” Tonight, I’m going to break into your home, point a gun at you, and rob you – all the while claiming that I’m not your enemy. Your enemy, I’ll say, is elsewhere, and I don’t mean across the street but in a different country. What will you do? By a show of hands, will you fight back and protect those in your home by evicting me or even by killing me? By a show of hands, who will thank me and travel to said country in search of the enemy, leaving those in your home vulnerable to me? Anyone? Nobody? It sounds absurd, but for reasons that I’ll soon explain, you’ll understand that it’s more real than hypothetical.

    Hello, I’m Casey Carlisle. I’m a West Point graduate, and I spent five years in the Army, including 11 months in Afghanistan. Some of you are thinking about serving your country, and most of you are asking yourselves, “Why am I listening to this guy?” I’m glad that both of these groups are here, and I promise that my remarks will cause both groups to think differently about military service.

    I was a high-school senior on September 11th, 2001, sitting in class and stunned after hearing the principal announce that our country had just been attacked. Why would someone want to do this to the greatest country on Earth? I was also livid, and I wanted revenge. I wanted to kill the people responsible for this atrocity, and my dilemma then was between enlisting in the military to exact revenge now or first spending years at a military academy before helping to rid the world of terrorists. I chose the latter, so I didn’t deploy to Afghanistan until 2009. My time there radically changed my views, which was uncomfortable, but, as with failure, discomfort breeds learning.

    I learned that not only were we not keeping our fellow Americans safe or protecting their liberty, we were further impoverishing one of the poorest countries in the world. I watched in disgust my alleged allies – the Afghan police – rob their neighbors while on patrol and in broad daylight via traffic stops. Imagine getting pulled over, not for speeding, but because the cop hopes to rob you. My enemy – the Taliban – didn’t do such things, which is why I ended up having more respect for them than for my mission or for those who were allegedly helping us accomplish it. “Oh, but they’re horrible in other ways,” you might argue, and I’d agree; however, it’s much harder to kill an idea than it is to kill a person. Killing someone who holds an idea that you find distasteful only helps that person’s loved ones accept that idea. It turns out that killing someone for their ideas is a great way to spread those ideas.

    US Army file image

    Instead of dismissing me as an anti-American lunatic, consider the following. In the year 2000, the Taliban controlled most of Afghanistan, and today, they control all of it. This is just one of the reasons why I feel contempt for those who thank me for my alleged service. Our ‘service’ was worse than worthless, and the people thanking me were forced to pay for it. All of those who died there did so for nothing. And the innocent Afghans who were displaced, injured, or killed during our attempt to bring democracy to a country that didn’t want it were far better off in 2000 than they are now.

    To be clear, the desire to serve one’s country is noble, but we must first define “country.” Serving one’s country is entirely different from serving one’s government. They are not the same. Serving one’s country is serving one’s family, friends, neighbors, and the land that they’ve made home. Serving one’s country is serving one’s community. Serving one’s government, however, is ultimately what everyone does when they enlist or when they take my path as an officer. Who are these people in government that you’ll end up serving? Are they your family, friends, or neighbors? For the most part, they are not, yet, they are ultimately who will decide your fate while in uniform. Whether they’re politicians or bureaucrats, they decide what serving one’s country entails, and, naturally, they’ll subordinate our country’s prosperity to their job security. If given the opportunity, these people will not hesitate to send you to your death if it means scoring a measly political point against their ideological foes. Serving one’s country in this context – reality – means serving these parasites.

    Here’s something else to consider.  When you tell the military recruiter that you want to enlist, what are you implying? You’re telling the recruiter – a government agent – that not only do you want to serve your government but that you’re willing to kill for it. Tell any other recruiter in the real economy of that proclivity, and, at the very least, you won’t be getting that job.  Seems obvious enough, but have you heard of Operation Vigilant Eagle? This operation, headed by the Department of Homeland Security and the FBI, tracks veterans returning from Iraq and Afghanistan and characterizes them as extremists and potential domestic terrorists. Why?  Because these veterans might be disgruntled or suffering from the psychological effects of war. Yes, you heard that correctly.

    The government that bribed the graduating senior into joining the military now views that same patriot as its enemy. You might protest, thinking that getting put on a list isn’t all that bad, but I’d argue that lists are never created as an end; they’re always a means, and in this case, too, they’re diabolical. Not only were these veterans put on a list for the ‘crime’ of justifiably feeling disillusioned, when a veteran was explicitly critical of the regime, these veterans were labeled “mentally unfit” and forced into psychiatric facilities where they’d receive treatment for whatever illness the regime deemed appropriate, indefinitely. I don’t know if this program continues today, but if the regime were to tell us, “We’re not doing that anymore,” would you believe it?

    I know you weren’t around for 9/11, but I’m sure you recall March of 2020. I bet you were almost as angry then as I was. We all witnessed a very sad truth: the “home of the brave” is devoid of the brave, and the “land of the free” hasn’t been free for quite some time. Most Americans not only take their liberty for granted, they readily reject it. They’re terrified of it, which is why they hate it. What we all witnessed then undermines the tired slogan – the blatant lie – that those who join the military are “fighting for our freedom.” This is no theory; it’s why, to this day, the military is struggling like hell to recruit people like you. They think you’re stupid.

    But you might’ve realized that serving one’s country necessarily implies staying in one’s country. You might be thinking that when one joins the military, he swears to defend the Constitution against all enemies – foreign and domestic; however, the regime would like you to combat only the foreign enemies that it tells you to hate. Who kicked you out of school in 2020? Who cancelled your games, meets, matches, and races? Who prevented you from traveling freely?  Who thought it best that you not embrace your loved ones?  Who masked you? Our own government is our greatest threat, and it has proven to be so scared of those it duped into ‘serving’ that it’ll send you to some other country or to a mental hospital in order to protect itself.

    I’m not telling you what to do. I’m making sure that you’re fully aware of what you’re getting into if you decide to join the military, as I’m sure the recruiter didn’t tell you about Operation Vigilant Eagle. He probably didn’t tell you that 18 veterans kill themselves every day, and he probably didn’t tell you that the military is the final political option. But does it seem like the regime waits until all else fails before getting involved, or is it easier to count the countries that do not have U.S. military personnel stationed in them? Did the recruiter tell you that those who don’t ‘serve’ pay the salaries of those who do? Seems a bit backward – to be forced to pay those who allegedly serve you.

    Most of the millionaires and billionaires in this country got rich by actually serving their fellow man via voluntary exchange, not by living off of their neighbors. I encourage you to consider taking that route – enriching yourself by enriching your community, not by parasitizing it. And no need to fixate on getting rich. If your interactions with your community are voluntary – no matter how lousy the pay – they’re likely honorable, no killing required. In closing, take a deep breath, and look around. Your country is here. We are your country, and when things get bad, we will need you here, not fighting those in a different country who pose no threat to us while leaving us vulnerable to our greatest threat. Thank you for listening.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/08/2024 – 23:20

  • Where Are America's Largest Landfills?
    Where Are America’s Largest Landfills?

    According to the EPA, the U.S. produced 292 million tons of solid waste in 2018. Of that, about 150 million tons headed to the country’s landfills. It would take more than 600 of the largest cargo ships (by dead weight tonnage) to move this much material at once.

    Visual Capitalist’s Marcus Lu maps out America’s largest landfills, based on their total capacity (measured in millions of tons) for solid waste.

    Data for this graphic is sourced from Statista and is current up to 2023.

    Ranked: America’s Largest Landfills

    Opened in 1993 and located 25 minutes from Las Vegas, Apex Landfill is believed to be one of the world’s largest landfills by both area and volume.

    It spans 1,900 acres, or roughly the size of 1,400 football fields. Given its vast capacity, the landfill is expected to be able to accept waste for over 250 years.

    Here are the top 10 largest landfills in the country.

    In a 2021 PBS interview, a spokesperson for Apex Landfill reported that the facility captured and treated enough landfill gas to power nearly 11,000 homes in Southern Nevada.

    In fact, landfills can create electricity through a process called landfill gas (LFG) recovery. When organic waste decomposes, it produces methane gas which can be captured and purified to create fuel for generators.

    As it happens, methane gas from landfills is the third-largest source of human-related carbon emissions, equivalent to 24 million gas passenger vehicles driven for one year. Its capture and treatment is a significant opportunity to combat emissions.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/08/2024 – 22:45

  • Atlas Shrugs Twice
    Atlas Shrugs Twice

    Authored by Charles Krblich via The Brownstone Institute,

    One fateful day in March 2020, the incompetent men shut down the world with lockdowns. It was the opposite of the premise in Atlas Shrugged.

    Who is John Galt?

    Who cares?

    The incompetent people could stop the motor of the world too.

    Atlas shrugs either by disappearing competence or by an overwhelming mass of incompetence too great even for Atlas’s broad, strong shoulders.

    Competency crises seem to be brewing left and right and are constantly on public display of late. Consider the self-interested testimony of Fani Willis. Jared Bernstein, the chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, caused an interview to go viral by struggling to explain monetary policy. Several previously 100% effective Covid vaccines have been withdrawn from the market (Johnson & Johnson, AstraZeneca). Lastly, consider the inspiring image of our own Secretary of Defense triumphantly marching off his plane in the Philippines wearing his Covid mask and face shield. It is not-so-reminiscent of the image of General MacArthur triumphantly marching onshore at Luzon to liberate the Philippines. It is difficult to observe these things and think, These are competent individuals.

    In Ayn Rand’s novel, the competent individuals who build businesses, products, and industries all go on strike and suddenly disappear. The resulting world becomes increasingly bleak. Government takes a larger role. Simple things start to break. Less value is provided and at the same time, everything is more expensive. That sounds much like the world we begin to find ourselves in today.

    Rand witnessed all of this herself. She was born in the city of St. Petersburg in pre-revolutionary Russia, the daughter of a pharmacist. After the revolution, her father’s pharmacy was nationalized and they fled to Crimea which was under White Army control during the ensuing Russian Civil War. Afterward, they returned to St. Petersburg and were forced to live under desperate conditions. Nearly starving, she was granted a visa to visit Chicago. She managed to stay in the US and chose to leave her family behind. She watched as incompetent men destroyed her father’s business, needlessly broke up her family, and repeated this disaster society-wide.

    Meanwhile, we can read and laugh about recent trends like quiet-quitting, which may be a darkly alternative concept of Galt’s Gulch. Regardless of competency, people can disappear and simply collect a paycheck. Rather than compete, the goal becomes optimizing work-life balance and pursuing passions outside of work. If competent people begin to do only the bare minimum, is it any wonder that customer service or quality control always seems to be on the decline everywhere we look?

    The outcome is always the same: incompetence spreads. In many cases, incompetence becomes celebrated. In 2021, Fauci was awarded the Dan David Prize for “speaking truth to power” during the pandemic. Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York was given an international Emmy for his “masterful” pandemic briefings. Today, where do both stand? 

    Governor Cuomo’s Emmy was eventually stripped from him after he was forced to resign in response to sexual harassment allegations against him.  Fauci is admitting to the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic that much of the rules for social distancing and masking were simply made up. Lying, in spectacular fashion, is “masterful” and “speaking truth to power” only in clown world. In reality, it is neither. 

    Maybe, in the upcoming election, we will see Kamala Harris decry the Trump vaccine and claim she never took it. You see, it was the convicted felon Trump’s vaccine and the ineffectiveness and severe side effects were known to all. There will, of course, be video of her being injected, just as there is a video of her at the Vice Presidential debate where she states that she wouldn’t take a vaccine Trump told her to. It is only a coincidence that the Pfizer vaccine was approved in early December, just a little more than a month after the election in November 2020. 

    I have long thought that the correct solution to all of this is to not participate, to only focus on what I can immediately control. I imagined that if the Von Trapp family could avoid Nazism and flee across the hills as shown in The Sound of Music, then I would be able to as well. It all seemed so simple. I spent little time contemplating how precarious and close to disaster their situation truly was.

    Ayn Rand, on the other hand, fled with her family to Crimea with the White Army. It failed. They were returned to St. Petersburg, Russia. Her parents perished in the city renamed as Leningrad, Russia in 1941 when the Nazis began their Siege of Leningrad.

    People pay far too much attention to the charade presented on their television screens. Individuality is lost; energy is squandered. The conflicting messages, hypocrisies, and our own inability to do anything about it affect us in ways that are often not conscious. 

    I felt the way he looked. His was one of helplessness, frustration and indignation—but he could do absolutely nothing.

    Ayn Rand, speaking about her father in the wake of the 1917 Communist Revolution

    How many of us felt this way at the announcement of lockdowns? How many resisted? How many still believe? What does any of it mean? 

    Rand’s father, however, did not give in. He refused to work for the Soviet Government, even if it threatened his family’s food security. He helped his daughter escape to America, and he encouraged her to follow her own dreams.

    Atlas may shrug, justice may never be served, all of the structures and institutions around us may fall into disrepair or collapse, and the world may be forcefully locked down, but when we give in to apathy and shrug our shoulders in dejected acceptance and passive participation, we also hand over our own individuality, agency, and freedom.

    It is then that Atlas shrugs, not once, but twice.

    *  *  *

    Republished from the author’s Substack

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/08/2024 – 22:10

  • Copper Breaks Trend Line As Trafigura Questions Spike, Hedge Funds Bet Big
    Copper Breaks Trend Line As Trafigura Questions Spike, Hedge Funds Bet Big

    Tight supplies from copper mines and the looming threat of a worsening global deficit rocketed copper prices from February to June, and the AI trade, which drove momentum from speculative traders, pushed prices even higher. But in recent weeks, prices have tumbled, breaking a critical trend line that has been intact for months. Now, prices are teetering on a knife-edge, with trading desks and hedge funds speculating on what comes next. 

    Let’s begin with comments from the world’s top copper trader – and as Bloomberg’s Jack Farchy puts it, “usually one of the market’s most bullish voices” – who called the price surge unjustified due to real-world supply. 

    “Prices of non-ferrous metals have moved much higher than fundamentals in the physical spot market might indicate or justify, especially for copper,” Trafigura Chief Economist Saad Rahim wrote in a note with first-half results on Thursday. 

    Rahim pointed out that copper’s speculative surge in the first half of the year was primarily linked to “investment flows.” However, he does believe the closure of First Quantum Minerals Ltd.’s mine in Panama will eventually tighten global supplies. 

    He wrote that sliding mine supply “has led to a significant concentrates shortage, resulting in smelters having to cut production and pointing to tighter inventories of refined metal even if demand is lackluster.”

    Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange on Friday fell to $9,652 a ton, down 11.5% from the all-time high of $11,104 in May. Furthermore, prices have breached a multi-month ascending trend line, which is happening as the top consumer of copper, China, has printed dismal economic data. 

    “Specs got in from Feb, fast money chased in March (AI narrative emerged), April we saw consumers really step back (above 9k) and scrap volumes picked up, May was financial FOMO and stop outs and we saw a pickup in producer hedging. Feels to me like the 2023 range steps a good $1500 higher for now, the low of that range will be what we settle next couple of weeks and the higher end will be the stop out top (10k to 11k give or take),” Goldman’s James McGeoch wrote in a note to clients on Friday. 

    McGeoch said, “The numbers I hear most is $14-15k. Think this gets the project running, then you drift back to marginal cost.” 

    Then there are hedge funds Rokos Capital Management and Andurand Capital Management, which bet that prices could rally significantly from current levels.

    Per Bloomberg: 

    Rokos has made a flurry of options purchases in the past several months in a bet that copper could rally to $20,000 or more over the next few years, according to people familiar with the matter. At Andurand, copper was the biggest position by market exposure at the end of April, and the trader has recently predicted that prices could hit $40,000. Those targets are well beyond the forecasts of even the most bullish Wall Street banks.

    Last week, Andurand told clients in a letter that its main commodities funds were up between 13% and 30% in April, primarily because of its bullish copper bets. 

    “We believe that we are at the beginning of the copper bull-market and that the recent move higher in prices is just the start,” Andurand wrote,adding, “Copper faces a decade-long supply deficit driven by the confluence of increasing demand due to the energy transition and persistent underinvestment in mine expansion.”

    In April, David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital said it had made a “medium-sized macro position to benefit from higher copper prices.” 

    “Our thesis now is that copper supply is about to fall short of demand, forcing prices substantially higher,” Greenlight said in a letter to clients, adding, “We think the best way to invest in that thesis is the most direct way — in this case through options on copper futures.”

    Goldman’s McGeoch said, “A supply shock doesn’t get the price from $10,500 to $12,000. It’s what takes us from $15k to $20k.” 

    Also, Jeff Currie, who led commodities research at Goldman for nearly three decades, recently told Bloomberg’s Odd Lots that copper “is the most compelling trade I have ever seen in my 30 plus years of doing this.”

    Despite China’s souring recovery, copper bulls believe the market will tighten as global industrial activity increases, central banks pivot to looser monetary policy, and mining companies struggle to ramp up production. This comes as demand rises due to electric vehicles, renewables, reshoring trends, and AI data centers, as the copper squeeze is likely to reignite again. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/08/2024 – 21:35

  • FDA Rescinds Ban On Juul E-Cigarettes
    FDA Rescinds Ban On Juul E-Cigarettes

    Authored by Marina Zhang via The Epoch Times,

    The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) reversed its two-year ban on Juul’s e-cigarettes on Thursday.

    The decision was made in response to new case law and the FDA’s review of the information Juul provided, the agency wrote in its public statement.

    An FDA spokesperson told The Epoch Times that they could not expand on what case law the FDA is referring to.

    The FDA’s initial ban on Juul e-cigarettes started on June 23, 2022, when the agency issued marketing denial orders (MDOs) to Juul Labs, banning all of the e-cigarette company’s products from the U.S. market.

    The company immediately filed an appeal that placed a temporary stay on the ban. A week later, the FDA placed an administrative stay on the MDOs “after determining that certain scientific issues warranted additional review,” and Juul’s products remained on the market for two years.

    With the new rescission, the FDA said its decision does not mean Juul’s products are now authorized for the U.S. market.

    The rescission changes Juul’s application to pending status, and the FDA will conduct a review to authorize or deny Juul’s products.

    “All e-cigarette products, including those made by Juul, are required by law to have FDA authorization to be legally marketed. The agency’s continued review does not constitute authorization to market, sell, or ship Juul products,” the FDA spokesperson told The Epoch Times.

    The agency stated that its statutes will “significantly limit what the agency can disclose regarding the content of pending applications.”

    In a statement published the same day, Juul welcomed the FDA’s decision.

    “We appreciate the FDA’s decision and now look forward to re-engaging with the agency on a science- and evidence-based process to pursue a marketing authorization for JUUL products,” said the company.

    “We remain confident … and believe that a full review of the science and evidence will demonstrate that our products meet the statutory standard of being appropriate for the protection of public health.”

    Juul’s devices and tobacco- and menthol-flavored e-cigarette pods will remain on the market during the review.

    Juul’s Past Ban and Controversy

    Juul is currently the No. 2 e-cigarette company in the United States.

    The company was launched in 2015 and quickly gained popularity among teenagers and young adults. It then caught the attention of lawmakers and regulators due to concerns that Juul intentionally targeted younger people.

    Beginning in 2017, the popularity of e-cigarettes in the United States increased by 40 percent, driven primarily by Juul.

    At the peak of its popularity in 2019, the company represented the e-cigarette craze, commanding 75 percent of the market share in the United States.

    Beginning in 2019, health agencies issued alerts about teenagers ending up in emergency departments due to respiratory injuries from vaping. States and affected families filed personal injury lawsuits against Juul, alleging inappropriate marketing to youths.

    In 2020, under a federal court order, the FDA began requiring all e-cigarette and vaping companies to submit applications to continue marketing their products.

    In June 2022, the FDA ordered that Juul products be taken off the market due to four unresolved questions in its toxicology data. In its appeal to the FDA, Juul told the agency that these questions could have been clarified through the usual procedures or “a mere phone call.”

    Though the ban only lasted a few days, the amassed litigation and FDA action soon sent the company into a financial crisis, with it narrowly avoiding bankruptcy in 2022 and 2024.

    Juul has since taken steps to reduce underage usage by not featuring anyone younger than 35 in commercials and requiring age verification for purchase from its website.

    Since 2023, Juul’s underage usage has been cut by 95 percent. In December 2023, the company submitted applications to the FDA for next-generation e-cigarette products, but these have not yet been approved.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/08/2024 – 21:00

  • How Homicide Rates Have Changed Since 2012 By US State
    How Homicide Rates Have Changed Since 2012 By US State

    Are the United States getting more dangerous or more safe? The answer partially depends on your metric of choice.

    For example, by examining homicide rates by state from 2012 to 2022, it can be seen that rates have increased almost across the board. That said, they are still lower than rates seen in the 1980s and 1990s.

    This graphic, via Visual Capitalist, from USAFacts examines the age-adjusted homicide rates by state from 2012 to 2022, and how they’ve changed. It uses CDC data available for 46 states, with no data available for New Hampshire, North Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming.

    Comparing States by Homicide Rates

    From 2012 to 2022, homicide rates increased in every state with available data except for Connecticut, New Jersey, and Rhode Island. Here are the rates for all 46 available states as well as their 10-year change in percentage:

    State Homicide rate
    (2022, age-adjusted per 100,000)    		 10-Year Change
    (2012–2022)
    Mississippi 20.7 +103%
    Louisiana 19.8 +64%
    Alabama 14.9 +71%
    New Mexico 14.5 +120%
    Missouri 12.8 +75%
    Arkansas 11.8 +39%
    South Carolina 11.8 +44%
    Maryland 11.4 +61%
    Georgia 11.3 +74%
    Tennessee 11.0 +49%
    Illinois 10.9 +68%
    Alaska 10.2 +104%
    North Carolina 9.2 +56%
    Arizona 9.0 +45%
    Pennsylvania 8.9 +53%
    Michigan 8.6 +10%
    Ohio 8.5 +49%
    Indiana 8.4 +53%
    Kentucky 8.3 +48%
    Oklahoma 8.3 +14%
    Nevada 7.8 +73%
    Virginia 7.8 +90%
    Texas 7.6 +49%
    Colorado 7.2 +85%
    Florida 7.2 +11%
    Delaware 7.0 +1%
    South Dakota 6.9 +188%
    West Virginia 6.2 +5%
    Wisconsin 6.0 +71%
    California 5.9 +13%
    Kansas 5.8 +53%
    Montana 5.4 +125%
    Washington 5.4 +64%
    Oregon 5.1 +82%
    New York 4.5 +22%
    Connecticut 4.3 -2.3%
    Minnesota 3.8 +90%
    New Jersey 3.8 -20.8%
    Nebraska 3.7 +6%
    Hawaii 3.0 +100%
    Iowa 2.9 +38%
    Idaho 2.7 +23%
    Maine 2.6 +8%
    Massachusetts 2.5 +25%
    Utah 2.2 +29%
    Rhode Island 2.0 -33.3%

    Note: Age-adjusted data helps to compare health data over time or between groups more fairly by accounting for the age differences in populations.

    Mississippi had the largest increase in homicide rate, more than doubling from 10.2 to 20.7 per 100,000 people. New Mexico (up 7.9 homicides per 100,000 people), Louisiana (up 7.7), Alabama (up 6.2), and Missouri (up 5.5) had the next-biggest increases.

    Murder rates doubled in at least six states over the decade: South Dakota (+188%), Montana (+125%), New Mexico (+120%), Alaska (+104%), Mississippi (+103%), and Hawaii (+100%).

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/08/2024 – 20:25

  • From Bloody Biden Head To Code Pink 'War Criminal' Display, White House Protest Gets Heated
    From Bloody Biden Head To Code Pink ‘War Criminal’ Display, White House Protest Gets Heated

    Update (2000ET): Thousands of demonstrators surrounded the White House on Saturday to protest President Joe Biden’s response to Israel’s military strikes on Gaza.

    Chants of “Free Palestine!”, “Genocide is our red line”, and “Israel bombs, your taxes pay” could be heard from protesters – many of whom were bussed in from over two dozen cities.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Footage posted on X shows protesters getting rowdy as police attempted to make an arrest. As a crowd chants, “Let her go!” officers deployed pepper spray (at 17 seconds).

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The woman was not arrested, and the cops were chased away, with one protester saying “get out of here motherfuckers.“

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    The demonstration featured a coalition of groups, including the Council on American Islamic Relations (CAIR) and Code Pink, which featured protesters dressed as Biden, Antony Blinken, Netanyahu, and Israel’s Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant.

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    It was a diverse crowd to say the least…

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    One pro-Hamas group even featured a Biden mask covered in blood.

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    Smoke bombs were lit:

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    And protesters threw bottles at a police officer, breaking into a chant of “Fascist!”

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    Oh, and there was a giant pride parade a few streets over.

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    *   *   *

    President Biden loves taxpayer-funded walls, except for former President Trump’s southern border wall. The elderly president has a beautiful taxpayer-funded wall around his beach home in exclusive Rehoboth Beach (a destination for rich liberals), where the poors and illegal aliens are not allowed. On the topic of walls this weekend, another taxpayer-funded wall was quietly erected around the White House in recent days.

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    Biden’s ‘White House Wall’ was erected on Friday ahead of ANSWER (Act Now to Stop War and End Racism), an anti-war group founded three days after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks, along with other activist groups, including CODEPINK and the Council on American Islamic Relations, who are all planning to surround the White House for Palestine on Saturday. 

    Photo: Craig Birchfield

    ANSWER posted on X numerous videos that show busses of pro-Palestinian protesters en route to Washington, DC, Saturday morning. 

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    “In preparation for the events this weekend in Washington, DC, that have the potential for large crowds to gather, additional public safety measures have been put in place near the White House complex,” a US Secret Service spokesperson told Reuters. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/08/2024 – 20:02

  • European Elections: Forging Ahead Or A Spanner In The Works
    European Elections: Forging Ahead Or A Spanner In The Works

    By Elwin de Groot, Stefan Koopman, and Maartje Wijffelaars of Rabobank (pdf link)

    Summary

    • The European Parliament elections will serve as a pivotal test of the far right’s influence on the European political landscape.
    • It appears another centrist coalition can be formed, but the far right may still shape the dynamics of parliamentary operations and the allocation of EU top jobs.
    • The European People’s Party will have a key position. This will necessitate trade-offs and, if unattainable, poses the risk of policy stasis on matters where the council is eager to advocate for radical changes.
    • The new parliament will learn there’s a thin line between increasing an economy’s resilience and adopting an unbalanced package of measures.

    The European Parliament elections, scheduled for June 6-9, 2024, are expected to carry significant implications for the future of the European Union. This significance primarily arises from the increasing prominence of right-wing parties across Europe, as evidenced by their recent electoral victories and influence in national politics. This election’s outcome does not necessarily preclude the implementation of ambitious plans to overhaul the EU, but it does highlight the risk of either policy stasis or unbalanced decisions.

    What’s at stake?

    The European Parliament is one of the three key legislative bodies of the European Union (EU), alongside the European Commission and the Council of the European Union.

    While the European Commission advocates for the EU’s overall interests and the council represents the governments of member states, the European Parliament upholds the interests of EU citizens. It plays a crucial role in the EU’s legislative and decision-making processes. Despite being perceived as the least influential among the three, it does possess substantial co-legislative authority, including the power to modify and veto legislative proposals in most policy areas. Furthermore, the Lisbon Treaty enhanced its budgetary responsibilities and reinforced its influence over the selection of the European Commission’s president and commissioners. This could prove to be a crucial factor in the months ahead.

    Polls indicate the possibility that far-right members of the European Parliament (MEPs) could garner even more support than they won in 2019 (see figure 3). The far right is divided into two groups: the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group and the Identity and Democracy (ID) group. The ECR includes Poland’s Law and Justice party, Italy’s Brothers of Italy, the Sweden Democrats, Spain’s Vox, Belgium’s New Flemish Alliance and France’s Reconquest!. The ID features France’s National Rally, Alternative for Germany, Italy’s League, Belgium’s Flemish Interest, and the Dutch Party for Freedom. There are also parties from the right (e.g., Hungary’s Fidesz) that are not affiliated to any of the European Union’s political groups. These sit, alongside parties from the left and center, in the non-inscrit group. Question marks hang in particular over the affiliation of Fidesz, which has a dire record on the rule of law and calls for Ukraine to negotiate peace with Russia. The party has flirted numerous times with the ECR, but for now sits in the new non-inscrits.

    A shift toward the right

    At first glance, the ECR and ID parties appear to share common ground, but a closer look reveals deep divisions that prevent a united front. Generally speaking, the ECR wants to curb EU powers without disbanding it altogether, while they also are pro-Ukraine, pro-Atlanticism, and pro-NATO. Its MEPs present themselves as Euroskeptics, but they are also somewhat integrated into the EU’s political and institutional framework. Conversely, the ID exhibits a more ambivalent stance vis-àvis Russia, opposes enlargement, is anti-Atlanticist, and is a pariah within EU policy circles.

    Even though the Eurobarometer survey shows citizens are fairly positive about the EU, polling data indicates the ECR and ID could secure a substantial number of seats in the forthcoming elections. The latest poll averages place them at 73 and 83 seats, respectively, so a combined 156 out of 720 seats. This would surpass the center-left Socialists & Democrats (S&D), who are projected to secure 145 seats, and land not too far from the 175 seats forecast for the center-right European People’s Party (EPP). The liberal Renew Europe and the Greens/EFA are losing support. It is worth noting that MEPs do not necessarily remain put after the election; frequent transfers of lawmakers between groups tend to keep the parliament in flux.

    The far right has been largely excluded from power across Europe due to tacit agreements among centrist parties, even as its influence does compel the center right to adopt stricter anti-immigration, anti-trade, and anti-environment stances. It appears another centrist coalition between the EPP and the S&D can be formed, contingent on participation of the Liberals and/or the Greens. A right-wing coalition comprising the EPP and the ECR could also be tried, but this would require additional support from other parties. This looks to be very difficult. A right-wing majority composed of the EPP, ECR, and ID looks to be very unlikely, while the Liberals, the Greens, and the Socialists have ruled out working with both far-right parties.

    That said, the right wing’s influence is still poised to shape the dynamics of parliamentary operations and the distribution of high-level roles, potentially complicating the confirmation of the European Commission president and commissioners. The  incumbent president, Ursula von der Leyen of the EPP, who seeks a second term, has already engaged with the ECR, further straining her relationship with the S&D. Furthermore, even without a blocking minority or official agreements with other parties, growing support for the far right grants the far right more sway over various policies, including immigration, defense, and environmental issues, by drawing the EPP to the right, away from its alliance with S&D and Renew. Indeed, the European Commission and some mainstream parties in the European Parliament seem to be acknowledging the changing political landscape and are trying to jump on the bandwagon.

    A pressing need for change

    Apart from the internal landscape, rapidly changing geopolitics is also forcing the EU to change course, or to speed up, in certain areas. As we pondered in one of our strategic think pieces, the changing world order forces the EU to put more emphasis on its quest to become strategically autonomous. To summarize that article, we think that Europe’s quest for strategic autonomy hinges on overcoming three intertwined weaknesses: i) energy/raw materials dependency, ii) industrial decline, and iii) military dependence. Meanwhile, preserving social cohesion is a necessary condition to make things work.

    Over the past months, EU institutions, politicians and technocrats have released multiple publications and proposals in line with our thinking.

    Trump 2.0 sets things in motion

    For example, last month, the commission published a paper discussing the economic impact of defense spending, aiming to spark a debate on the most efficient approach. Additionally, an over 700-page report on “state-induced distortions in China’s economy” was published (and met with immediate criticism from China). This illustrates a broader trend of the EU taking a more assertive stance on global economic matters. This is reflected in, for example, the probes into Chinese electric vehicles and wind turbines, and in investigations in international procurement, for example in medical devices.

    On one side, this indicates that the EU might align more closely with the US, potentially adopting a tougher stance on China, especially if pressured by a possible new Trump administration. Conversely, Europe also seeks to establish its own distinct strategy. Given its reliance on China for key exports, as well as the strategic resources necessary for the energy transition, a complete severance of EU-China ties seems unlikely. This is underscored by the Letta report, outlined below, which emphasizes the need to maintain the EU’s foundational principles in the face of escalating geopolitical dynamics.

    In the event of a future US administration implementing a universal tariff, Europe’s reaction might involve a blend of measured retaliatory tariffs targeting specific American products, coupled with calibrated actions like non-tariff barriers against China. These measures would aim to preserve the overall EU-US relationship, but until Europe achieves a degree of strategic autonomy, it is forced to play a subordinate role.

    Letta and Draghi reports setting the “strategic agenda”?

    Europe is also strategically bracing itself for a “Trump 2.0 world.” This is becoming evident in the upcoming strategic agenda shaped by European Council’s president and leaders of the member states. The agenda, set for adoption in June 2024, is intended to give guidance to the newly elected parliament and commission and addresses key issues like security, energy, and EU expansion.

    In April, former Italian prime minister Enrico Letta added his input to the discussion, advocating for the introduction of a “fifth freedom” to bolster research, innovation, and education. He also stresses the need to develop a single market that has the ability to finance strategic goals and is able to “play big,” but not by undermining its principles of fair competition, cooperation, and solidarity.

    Another significant contribution to the strategic agenda, commissioned by EC President Von der Leyen, comes from former European Central Bank president and former Italian PM Mario Draghi. In a speech, Draghi had already emphasized that the European economy is in for a radical overhaul, which requires self-sufficient energy systems, a unified European defense system, and growth in cutting-edge sectors. Or, in three words: climate, defense, and digitalization.

    Draghi proposes to integrate further to leverage Europe’s scale, to focus on joint public-private investments in key areas such as defense, energy, climate, and supercomputers. This also requires a capital market union. And, broadly echoing our own conclusions, he emphasizes securing essential resources in critical input materials as well as a skilled workforce.

    This again underscores the inevitability of significant costs and tough choices. At this juncture, the opinion of the European electorate becomes pivotal, as it will influence how political parties will address their needs and sentiments.

    Will strategic thinking trump immigration and the cost-of-living concerns?

    How this would gel with the new parliament?

    Assuming the formation of another centrist coalition in parliament, it is probable that it will still lean toward the right. In table 1 on the next page, we highlight selected excerpts from election manifestos and recent policy papers on the previously mentioned topics from the five parties we believe will have a significant influence on the coalition talks.

    The stance of the EPP will be pivotal. They will need to broker compromises between the positions of the S&D (hawkish on climate/environment/social issues, dovish on EU productive capacity) and those of the ECR (dovish on climate/environment/social issues, hawkish on EU productive capacity, immigration, affordability of energy). This necessitates trade-offs. If those are unattainable, there is the risk of policy stasis on matters where the council is eager to advocate for radical changes.

    If we were to venture a guess, the compromises might broadly take the following form:

    • Climate: Commitment to the Green Deal remains unwavering; however, the centrality of climate and environmental objectives as an overarching priority for the European Union may diminish.
    • China: The EU maintains an ambivalent stance on China, but will remain keen on addressing dumping and unfair competition, while reducing dependencies in key sectors, framed by concerns over human rights, democracy, and the rule of law.
    • Defense: The EU sees increased (national) defense budgets, perhaps a pro-EU defense fund outside of the current budget, and enhanced collective procurement of European defense equipment and a push for greater integration of armed forces, albeit through bilateral or multilateral arrangements.
    • Trade: The EU will not pursue new trade/investment deals solely to champion free trade; agreements will be considered when they offer tangible benefits to European interests subject to EU standards on human rights and the environment.
    • Industries: The focus on green and key strategic sectors is expected to continue, likely through encouragements and incentives rather than direct, substantial subsidies.
    • Food: European food security and farmer income will be on par with eco-friendlier production, and the focus will shift from setting high (regulatory) standards to enabling farmers to become more sustainable.

    What are the implications?

    In this last section we briefly discuss the potential impact that the political shifts in Europe may have on three specific areas: namely, F&A, the energy transition, and financial markets.

    Food and agriculture: A change of tone, but no sea change

    In recent years, in line with the Green Deal, discussions have focused on the need to reduce the environmental and climate impact of farming. But due to geopolitical developments and farmer protests reflecting income and business continuity concerns, the commission has changed its tone. Currently, farmers are portrayed as vital for European food self-sufficiency and the sustainable development of rural areas. Greening agriculture is still on the table, but new legislative proposals are subject to more scrutiny on their feasibility, impact on production, and (socioeconomic) impact on rural areas.

    With a more right-conservative parliament, this trend is expected to continue. In this new reality, the new parliament has to deal with several questions. To highlight three:

    • How to continue with legislation on nature/biodiversity and the use of plant protection products? It’s unlikely a new right-conservative parliament will support ambitious (new) proposals on these topics, as the previous proposals have become symbols of (political) polarization.
    • What does the future of the Common Agriculture Policy (CAP) look like? Although the new funding period for CAP won’t start until 2028, preparation starts years in advance. CAP is often criticized for being old-fashioned with too little focus on incentivizing more sustainable agricultural practices. Here too, it seems unlikely that a major reform will take place under a new right-conservative parliament.
    • What is the future of animal welfare legislation? The current commission was supposed to present several revisions on animal welfare legislation, but there is only one on the table regarding animal transport. In particular, the European Citizens’ Initiative to “End the Cage Age” requires attention. This is potentially as divisive as legislation on nature/biodiversity and the use of plant protection products due to its large implications (costs, international competitive position, parallel import measures). It’s unlikely that a new right-conservative parliament will be very ambitious on this subject.

    Although a new right-conservative parliament might be less ambitious on reducing the environmental and climate impact of farming, this certainly does not mean European farmers are free from demands. Much of the Green Deal ambitions for agriculture are already laid down in legislation. These include legislation on greenhouse gases, water quality, and biodiversity. Some of this legislation has been in place for decades, but deadlines are nearing and the commission is losing patience with member states not having fulfilled their required efforts and goals.

    For instance, the Netherlands, Ireland, and Denmark are phasing out derogations from the Nitrates Directive as water quality hasn’t sufficiently improved. As a consequence, the dairy sectors in these countries are under particular pressure to reduce nutrient losses, which will probably result in a smaller herd size. Moreover, the Water Framework Directive requires water quality to be good in 2027. This increases the need for farmers to reduce nutrient losses and use less plant protection products. Hence, even though new legislation on the latter has been withdrawn, there still is pressure on agriculture to reduce the use of plant protection products.

    In short, even with a new right-conservative parliament, farmers still face strict regulations to improve their environmental and climate performance.

    Energy transition: Different shades of green

    The exiting European Commission already is signaling a different reading of the EU Green Deal. Or at least, it is shifting its accent to parts that were not so high on the agenda back when it was launched, in a 2019, pre-Covid world. The Green Deal Industrial Plan may be hinting at this evolving prioritization, paving the way for stronger state support, more explicitly recognizing the strategic nature of critical raw materials, and initiating the reform of the electricity market design, to ensure the ability to accommodate massive wind and solar generation sources before 2030.

    It is clear, and natural, given the geopolitical context, that some points in the original plan may become less prominent. The obvious candidates for diluted efforts, depending on the outcome of the elections, may be the biodiversity policies and those related to the agriculture sector, given their social sensitivity. We also struggle to see a very effective and influential implementation of very socially sensitive regulation, such as the EU ETS II. At least not before “palliative” social measures are put in place both in Brussels and in European capitals.

    Meanwhile it is well known that Europe’s greenhouse gas emissions – and the reduction thereof – are becoming less and less definitory in the fate of the global climate, in light of China’s increase and Europe’s decrease. But, it is also crystal clear that the energy transition – or the decarbonization of the energy system – is much more than an environmental effort, as shown by the leading role of China, not known for having a “green agenda” influencing its decision-making. From a more pragmatic and industrial point of view, it has become painfully clear that, if the EU wants to afford some industry and keep or gain some strategic autonomy, it will not be achieved on the shoulders of an energy supply chain relying on European competitors. Not while such providers can afford a much cheaper fossil fuel supply for themselves. An alternative, affordable, and reliable local supply is pivotal for Europe.

    Last but not least, there are political factors on the greener side of the balance, such as the strong positioning of Teresa Ribera as officer-to-be of the Green Deal’s next chapter.

    With all these elements together, it is not risky to venture that the EU Green Deal may show some brownish areas after the elections, but it may very well grow on steroids in the key areas of renewable and reliable energy supply, simplified strategic permitting, decarbonization of industry, and the deployment of local supply chains.

    Financial markets: Europe advances with crises not strategic agendas

    When gauging the impact of European elections and subsequent policy shifts on financial markets, recall that the direction of the European project has historically been shaped by crises instead of grand strategies. That has proved all too clear in the euro era, marked by the global financial crisis and sovereign debt crisis from 2008 to 2012, the refugee crisis of 2015-16, the

    Covid-19 pandemic in 2020-21, and the subsequent significant energy crisis and war in Ukraine.
    The unprecedented issuance of joint European debt, for instance, was a response to external shocks – an unplanned but effective move! While Europe’s strategic vulnerabilities may lead to more of these shocks that help the EU fail forward, they also underscore the possibility that strategic plans are sidelined by emergent issues.

    A significant breakdown of the European project seems unlikely. The majority of political parties now acknowledge the project’s irreversibility and the necessity for a unified stance on shared external interests. Real Euroskepticism has largely retreated to the political margins. The existence of the euro itself, even as it trades below its purchasing power parity, is not something financial markets are now worried about.

    The European Commission and Council have set ambitious goals. In our view, development of a capital markets union could be positive for financial markets, if it were to help unlock new private funding sources, reduce the cost of capital, and enhance competitiveness. This is also on the wish list of most groups in the parliament. Similarly, initiatives to strengthen defense,  stimulate innovation, support key industries, and secure supply chains and strategic resources should find enough support. If this indeed increases Europe’s resilience, then this transition could be positive for euro assets.

    However, when we juxtapose the possible shape of a compromise in the European Parliament with the commission and council’s ambitions, we could envisage two scenarios that may, at some point, adversely impact euro assets:

    • The risk of stasis precipitating the demise of the European project.
    • The risk of the commission or council pushing their agendas and leading to unbalanced results.

    Risk of stasis

    While the effective response to Covid-19 and the energy crisis highlighted the necessity of EU coordination and joint funding, we could expect some difficult moments on topics such as i) new EU funding sources, ii) the permanence of common funding as a feature of the European toolkit, iii) the need for a permanently larger EU budget, and iv) the need for state aid.

    Resistance is likely to come from groups opposed to further integration and the dilution of national competences. Yet even centrist parties like the EPP might object if they perceive this as a threat to prudent budgeting and fiscal sustainability. This could lead to policy stasis and slow down the progress toward Europe’s strategic autonomy. The ambivalent stance on China could also prove a source of stagnation if the EU prioritizes derisking while national governments protect domestic interests. This could obviously weigh on market sentiment at some point.

    Risk of unbalanced results

    The EU should also avoid unintended demand-supply imbalances. The strategic agenda is costly and adds to demand before it can increase supply. As such, it is potentially inflationary in the transition phase. The impact could be attenuated by prudent budgeting, which requires tough choices, and by the right incentives. A key risk here lies in viewing joint financing, effectively a new layer on top of the existing debt structure, as the “solution” to overcome political hurdles. By this we mean that even when we ignore the condition of fiscal prudence, it is also important that policies steer more actively toward “productive” spending and investment measures rather than just pushing demand or unproductive speculation.

    Without such policies, clearly, the other risk is that the same political hurdles force the European Commission and/or Council into compromises that undermine the holistic approach. Sidestepping tough choices or protecting vested interests could lead to an unbalanced package of measures that leads to an unconstrained inflationary impulse. Our analysis suggests the ECB’s role is crucial in a holistic strategy. If there is no consensus, we could end up in a situation where the ECB will simply have to pick up the pieces. This is, obviously, not a market-friendly outcome either.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/08/2024 – 19:50

  • These Are The World's Biggest Mining Nations
    These Are The World’s Biggest Mining Nations

    China was the world’s biggest extractor of domestic materials in 2023, according to the UNEP’s Global Material Flows Database. The country extracted a total of 34.2 billion tonnes of materials, including biomass, fossil fuels, metal ores, and non-metallic minerals. This is more than four times the amount of either of the next two largest extractors: India (8.03 billion tonnes) and the United States (7.98 billion tonnes). India overtook the United States for the first time to become the second largest extractor of these materials in 2023.

    As Statista’s Anna Fleck shows in the chart below, when looking at the domestic extraction of materials per capita, then a very different picture emerges: Australia rises to the top, with 102 tonnes of materials extracted per capita followed by Canada with 67 tonnes per capita, and only then by China at 24 tonnes per capita in 2023.

    Infographic: The World's Biggest Miners | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    In terms of the relative shares of materials extracted per country, China’s mix is predominantly made up of non-metallic materials (70 percent of the total). These include sand, gravel and clay for construction and industrial purposes. Meanwhile, Australia’s biggest industry of the four categories is metal ores, accounting for around 53 percent of the country’s total. This includes iron, aluminum, copper and other non-ferrous metals.

    Worldwide, a total of 104.1 billion tonnes of biomass, fossil fuels, metal ores, and non-metallic minerals were extracted in 2023. This is up from 96.5 billion in 2020. Asia and the Pacific accounted for the largest share with 56.9 billion tonnes of these materials extracted (or around 55 percent of the world total), followed by Latin America and the Caribbean with 11.2 billion tonnes (11 percent), North America with 10.6 billion tonnes (10 percent), Europe with 9.2 billion tonnes (9 percent), Africa with 8.2 billion tonnes (8 percent), West Asia with 5.3 billion tonnes (5 percent) and Eastern Europe and Central Asia with 2.9 billion tonnes (3 percent).

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/08/2024 – 19:15

  • DEI Programs Could Soon Face Supreme Court
    DEI Programs Could Soon Face Supreme Court

    Authored by Eric Lundrum via American Greatness,

    The controversial business practice known as “diversity, equity, and inclusion” (DEI) could soon see its legal challenges take it all the way to the Supreme Court.

    According to Axios, the case that could spark Supreme Court action was filed by the same group that successfully saw the practice of affirmative action overturned by the court last year.

    The current case saw an appeals court ultimately rule that a venture capital firm had to shut down its grant program that was exclusively for black women.

    The American Alliance for Equal Rights (AAER) filed a lawsuit against Fearless Fund in 2023, arguing that the black-only and women-only grant program was discriminatory. The group initially tried to have the program halted while the case played out in the courts, but a district judge ruled in favor of the company and allowed the program to continue.

    Then, on Monday, a three-judge panel in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit overturned the district judge’s ruling, thus ordering Fearless Fund to cease its grant program. The two judges in the majority were appointed by former President Donald Trump, while the lone dissenter was an Obama appointee.

    The appeals court’s ruling noted that the challenge by AAER “is likely to succeed on the merits” of its claims that the program is a violation of civil rights and anti-discrimination laws. As a result of this ruling, there is now a “circuit split” on the matter, increasing the likelihood that the subsequent challenge by Fearless Fund will ultimately lead to the Supreme Court for a final decision.

    Similar cases against DEI programs have faced more difficult challenges. In March, a lawsuit was filed against Pfizer over its fellowship program that only applied to black, Hispanic, or Native American applicants. But the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit ruled against the plaintiffs, an advocacy group called Do No Harm, arguing that they lacked standing to sue.

    DEI has long been criticized as not only discriminatory, but a means by which companies may hire people who are unqualified for certain positions, overlooking qualified and competent candidates in favor of diversity picks. Challenges against such programs have increased following the decision last year in Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard, the case which ultimately saw affirmative action declared unconstitutional nationwide.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/08/2024 – 18:40

  • Tokyo Government Dating App Helps Residents Get Laid To Avoid Population Collapse
    Tokyo Government Dating App Helps Residents Get Laid To Avoid Population Collapse

    Officials in Tokyo, Japan are launching a new dating app to help promote marriage and boost the collapsing national birth rate.

    The fee-based app from the Tokyo Metropolitan government will ask people to prove that they are legally single, and sign a letter confirming their willingness to get married. It will also require that people submit a tax certificate slip that proves their annual income, along with roughly 15 other items of personally identifying information – including height, weight, educational background and occupation following a mandatory interview with the app’s operator.

    So – Match.com, only you give all of your data to the government instead of a private company.

    According to the Independent, Tokyo officials allocated US$1.2 million towards the development of dating apps in 2023, and US$1.9 million for fiscal 2024 for the purpose of promoting marriage through said apps.

    “If there are many individuals interested in marriage but unable to find a partner, we want to provide support,” a Tokyo official told The Asahi Shimbun.

    “We hope that this app, with its association with the government, will provide a sense of security and encourage those who have been hesitant to use traditional apps to take the first step in their search for a partner.”

    According to AFP, the app is intended to give a “gentle push” to the nearly “70 per cent of people who want to get married” but weren’t “actively joining events or apps to look for a partner.”

    Falling Birth Rates

    In February, we noted that in 2023 Japan’s birth rate fell 5.1% from a year earlier to 758,631, while the number of marriages slid 5.9% to 489,281, the first time in 90 years the number fell below 500,000. The last time the number was this low the US had just dropped the atom bomb over Hiroshima and Nagasaki – signaling even greater declines in the population as out-of-wedlock births are rare in Japan.

    The drop comes more than a decade earlier than the government’s National Institute of Population and Social Security Research forecast, which estimated births would decline to below 760,000 in 2035, according to Kyodo news.

    Meanwhile, the number of deaths also hit a record – only in the other direction – rising to 1,590,503, while divorces increased to 187,798, up by 4,695.

    As a result, Japan’s population, including foreign residents, fell by 831,872, with deaths outnumbering births by a record 831,872, double where it was just five years ago.

    The fast pace of decline in the number of newborns has been attributed to late marriages and people staying single. The administration of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has called the period leading up to 2030 “the last chance” to reverse the trend; all Japan has to do is divert the millions of illegal immigrants entering the US every month through the southern border – with the expectation they will all become diligent Democratic voters – and give them a red carpet welcome.

    “The declining birthrate is in a critical situation,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi told reporters. “The next six years or so until 2030, when the number of young people will rapidly decline, will be the last chance to reverse the trend.”

    Also, this is a problem:

    And this:

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/08/2024 – 18:05

  • American Airlines Threatened With Travel Ban From NAACP After Passengers Removed For Body Odor
    American Airlines Threatened With Travel Ban From NAACP After Passengers Removed For Body Odor

    Via American Greatness,

    American Airlines is under fire from the NAACP after 8 black men were removed from a flight in May following a complaint about body odor.

    Last month three of those passengers filed a lawsuit against American Airlines, after alleging that airline personnel removed them and the other black male passenger from a flight from California to New York. A flight attendant had complained about body odor, though none of the passengers removed were accused of being the source of that odor.

    A tweet shared by Collin Rugg alleges that the men who filed that discrimination lawsuit don’t even know one another.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    After American Airlines offered to book new flights for the men, but when no other flights were available at that late hour, they were all allowed back on the plane.

    In 2017, the NAACP issued a travel advisory for the airline after what it described as “disrespectful, discriminatory or unsafe conditions” when booking or boarding with the airline.

    American Airlines responded by creating a diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) panel and the NAACP lifted the ban in 2018.

    However, the growing politicization of DEI programs prompted the airline to disband the panel in 2023.

    NAACP president and CEO Derrick Johnson released a statement saying, “Without a swift and decisive response, the NAACP will be forced to reinstate an advisory against the airline.”

    American Airlines told The Hill that they take “all claims of discrimination very seriously and want our customers to have a positive experience when they choose to fly with us.”

    Airlines can justifiably remove passengers who are a source of offensive odors in a highly confined space, but it’s also possible for airline service to stink to high heaven.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/08/2024 – 17:30

  • New Texas GOP Platform Calls For Secession Vote, Resistance To Federal Infringements
    New Texas GOP Platform Calls For Secession Vote, Resistance To Federal Infringements

    Reflecting plummeting patience with overstepping federal overlords, the Texas Republican Party has adopted two platform planks that call for legislators to assert state sovereignty, and to schedule a secession referendum in the next general election after November’s. 

    “This historic vote at the 2024 Republican Party of Texas Convention represents a substantial shift towards enhancing state sovereignty and exploring the potential for Texas to operate as an independent nation,” said the Texas Nationalist Movement (TNM) in a statement. “It reflects the growing sentiment among Texans for greater autonomy and the protection of our rights against federal overreach.” 

    Backers of the “TEXIT” movement make their stance known at the Texas Republican Convention in San Antonio (via Texas Nationalist Movement)

    Fittingly, that historic vote took place in San Antonio — home of the Alamo, aka “the cradle of Texas liberty.” Though it represented a setback, the 1836 Battle of the Alamo was a key chapter in the fight for independence that culminated in Texas becoming a self-governing republic. 

    The first plank asserts that the US government is infringing on powers reserved to Texas and all other states, and calls for unwarranted federal laws to be thwarted by Texas government. It also affirms the right of Texas to secede: 

    “Pursuant to Article 1, Section 1, of the Texas Constitution, the federal government has impaired our right of local self-government. Therefore, federally mandated legislation that infringes upon the 10th Amendment rights of Texas shall be ignored, opposed, refused, and nullified.

    Texas retains the right to secede from the United States, and the Texas Legislature should be called upon to pass a referendum consistent thereto and pass the Texas Sovereignty Act as filed in the 88th Legislative Regular Session as HB 384.”

    The second plank is a pointed directive to put the question of secession to the people of Texas in the next general election: 

    “The Texas Legislature should pass a bill in its next session requiring a referendum in the next General Election for the people of Texas to determine whether or not the State of Texas should reassert its status as an independent nation. This referendum should be a legislative priority.”

    From the San Antonio convention, here’s a brief but interesting clip of the Texas Nationalist Movement’s Nate Smith speaking in support of the independence-minded platform planks — and ably fielding a question from a delegate who suggests TNM is guilty of treason. 

    We’d have liked to hear Smith answer his critic’s attempted second question — as to whether Smith had recited the Pledge of Allegiance earlier that day as part of convention rituals. It’s likely the questioner would have next pointed to the pledge’s reference to “one nation…indivisible.”

    In making a case for why patriots shouldn’t pledge allegiance, Brian McGlinchey has argued that, of several objectionable components of the pledge, “‘indivisible’ should give greatest offense to American patriots. The very existence of the United States — created by secession from the British empire — is a testament to political divisibility as a foundational human right…By reciting the Pledge of Allegiance and proclaiming the United States of America ‘indivisible,’ Americans disclaim their human right of self-determination.”

    The Texas Nationalist Movement’s GOP convention success comes on the heels of a state Republican Party controversy over the issue. Despite TNM having amassed more than 139,000 signatures requesting that a secession question be placed on the March 5 primary ballot, the Texas GOP’s leadership refused to include it. TNM appealed to the state supreme court, which refused to hear the controversy.

    The party chair who presided over that decision, Matt Rinaldi, is out. Now, party’s top two officials are both signers of the “Texas First Pledge.” In addition to promising to place the interest of Texans “before any other nation, state, political entity, organization, or individual,” signatories commit to bringing about a secession referendum and, if it is approved by a majority of Texans, to work for an expeditious exit from the union.   

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    After seceding from Mexico, Texas was an independent country from 1836 to 1845 and, economically, is extraordinarily well-suited for independence today. It’s by far the largest oil producer of any US state, accounting for a whopping 42% of American production, with no other state exceeding even 10%. It has deep-water ports, abundant agriculture, and is a major high-tech hub. 

    There’s fixin’ to be another feather in Texas’s hat. As we examined earlier this week, the booming Lone Star State economy — and rising aggravation over compliance costs and woke regulations — has spurred BlackRock, Citadel Securities and other investors to back a new challenger to the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq: the Texas Stock Exchange.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/08/2024 – 16:55

  • Big Food, Bigger Conspiracy
    Big Food, Bigger Conspiracy

    Via SchiffGold.com,

    Food has gotten big. Literally. A walk through the produce aisle of a 21st-century grocery store would enthrall people of any historical period other than our own. The size of tomatoes and heads of lettuce is unprecedented in the history of humankind. In just a few short generations we have become accustomed to increasingly genetically modified food. This new food is much more tasteless and durable than food of the past. Variations in soil and growing conditions allowed food grown for different reasons to possess unique regional flavors. Food grown near the place it was sold allowed taste to be prized over transportability. While many have described this decrease in food quality as a result of industrialization and the demands of efficiency, it is much more correctly enunciated to be a result of government corruption arising from a socialistic instinct.

    Politicians on both sides of the aisle generally support the idea of America as a free market economy, yet they all fall victim to a basic human fallacy: “What you see is all there is.” Their desire to protect the foundation of America’s high quality of life is clouded by the lobbyists and lucrative PACs right in front of them. Timeless principles of wise governance seem unimportant and distant when a Kansan Sorghum Farmer is shedding real tears onto your office carpet. The farmer’s desire to keep things as they are infests the minds of all politicians who happen to interact with him. Small details, like the fact that he is representing a near-risk-proof corporate farm with an army of middle management, become unimportant. Smaller farms that cannot hire lobbyists will inevitably receive the short end of the stick because they have no way to remind the politicians of their existence. Fallible Politicians with a desire to make things right through government intervention rather than honor liberal principles will inevitably favor corporate farmers above both small farmers and the American populace.

    Governmental inability to hold back from action has damaged the very concept of local cuisine. Small family farms already had difficulty surviving against larger farms with vast economies of scale, and government support of “American Farmers” (corporations large enough to keep perpetual spokespeople on staff) only makes this struggle more difficult. Even from an interventionist standpoint, it would be better for more unstable businesses to receive more assistance, so the free market would be perceived as better than the current situation where the strongest multi-state farms are subsidized most heavily. Local history and growing conditions converged to create a rich and multifaceted food landscape. Unique types of plants and animals were preserved as they found a valued place in the palates of locals. Slight losses of efficiency were offset by regional cuisines which reveled in distinctiveness. However, some areas of America are more conducive to producing farms large enough to seek government aid. Massive farms in America’s breadbasket sympathy-farmed great depression sentiments until they entered a spiral of lobbying and growth that could not be stopped. Through technological superiority, crop homogeneity, and government cheerleading, they were able to lower prices to the point where local farms could not hope to compete.

    The death of local farms would not be nearly so great a problem if the larger farms provided even a semblance of the taste and quality that local farms provided. Food has grown large and tasteless as a direct result of this sympathy-fueled government campaign to protect a certain subgroup of farmers. greater geographic distance from the markets where produce is sold has greatly enhanced the value of firmer variations which can ripen well after being picked. Ripening while still attached to the plant allows more nutrients to enter and increase its flavor profile. Efficiency is also aided by an increase in size because a larger fruit is often easier to pack and has less chance of breaking. While consumers would undoubtedly prefer more flavorful produce, government incentives have exacerbated the prioritization of shelf-life and easy transport. Government-funded GMO research has also accelerated the problem of an abundance of large and tasteless food. The long-term health effects of GMOs are not known, yet because they directly serve the interest of the most well-funded farmers, their use is rarely scrutinized by regulatory agencies.

    Americans could once again be culinarily respected by the rest of the world if those in power developed a spine strong enough to stand up to sob story rent-seeking. Quality of life and local farming could gradually increase as the unjust power structures of the agricultural world begin to shift. Healthier and tastier options could become the norm rather than the expensive exception as they stop being crowded out by tasteless produce designed for anything but human consumption.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/08/2024 – 16:20

  • Slovakia's Fico Blames Assassination Attempt On 'Hateful' Opposition & Its International Backers
    Slovakia’s Fico Blames Assassination Attempt On ‘Hateful’ Opposition & Its International Backers

    This week Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico appeared in a video message while still recovering from the May 15 assassination attempt which saw him shot multiple times at close range in broad daylight. In the video originally published to Facebook, he uttered his first official televised statements since the ordeal which very nearly took his life.

    The video was recorded at his home in Bratislava, which suggests he’s nearly made a full recovery and is quickly returning to political life in the country’s top office. He said he has forgiven his attacker, identified officially by authorities as 71-year-old “Juraj C”, who had been tackled to the ground and immediately taken into custody after the shots rang out.

    But Fico used the opportunity to put the opposition on notice, saying the shooter was an “activist of the Slovak opposition.” In the searing remarks, Fico called the man a “messenger of the evil and political hatred” who was motivated and whipped up by Slovakia’s “unsuccessful and frustrated” opposition. Amazingly, he at one point in the address – released days ago – made some indirect connections to his firm foreign policy stances and the attempt on his life (policies which have resisted Western hegemony as well as the rush to escalate involvement in Ukraine). Watch the remarkable speech below:

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    In the video he also addressed the Ukraine situation and his ‘controversial’ stance in opposition to NATO escalation head-on: “The situation in the relations between my political representation and partners in the EU and NATO escalated after the Russian attack on Ukraine, where we refused to provide Ukraine with any military aid from state stocks, except for humanitarian aid, and where we continue to fundamentally prefer peace to war.”

    “The reluctance of some large democracies to respect the concept of a sovereign and self-confident Slovak foreign policy became grist to the mill of the Slovak opposition,” he continued. 

    The BBC has noted that “Opposition parties – in particular the liberal Progressive Slovakia, which is neck-and-neck with Mr Fico’s left-populist Smer party ahead of the European Parliament elections – have condemned the shooting and have categorically rejected all links with the attacker.”

    However, in Fico’s talk he made a direct link, saying further:

    The opposition was unable to assess, because no one forced them to do so, where their aggressive and hateful politics had led a section of the society and it was only a matter of time before a tragedy would occur.

    “People could see with their own eyes what horror can happen if someone is not able to democratically compete and respect other opinions,” he said.

    He has also committed to the following: “As the Prime Minister of Slovakia, I will not drag the country into such military adventures and, within the framework of our small Slovak capabilities, I will do everything to ensure that peace has priority over war.”

    “I voted in the hospital because these elections are also important. It is necessary to vote for European deputies who will support peace initiatives, and not the continuation of the war.”

    * * *

    The below prior report by The GrayZone’s Kit Klarenberg explores the foreign policy context & intrigue surrounding the attempted murder of Robert Fico… 

    On May 15, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico was almost murdered in broad daylight. While shaking hands with supporters during a public appearance, a gunman shot him twice in the abdomen and once in the shoulder. The attack left him fighting for his life while authorities raced for clues, and many observers at home and abroad puzzled about the would-be assassin’s motives and whether foreign actors were in some way responsible for the attack. And despite the shooter’s instantaneous arrest, those questions still linger weeks later. 

    Fico, a veteran Slovak political figure, was re-elected in September 2023 amid a wave of public resentment over the proxy war in Ukraine, pledging to end arms supplies to Kiev and anti-Russian sanctions. On the campaign trail, Western leaders, journalists and pundits aggressively stoked fears of the “pro-Putin,” “populist” candidate returning to office. Ukraine’s Western-backed “Center for Countering Disinformation” publicly accused him of spreading “infoterror” back in April 2022.

    But many Slovakians see it differently. They say Fico is merely committed to defending Slovakia’s sovereignty, and governing in his nation’s interests, not those of Brussels, Kiev, London, and Washington. For Western politicians, his victory came at a highly inopportune time, with public and political consensus on the proxy war in Ukraine rapidly fraying across Europe.

    Since Fico’s election, media outlets like Germany’s state broadcaster, Deutsche Welle, have branded him a “threat” to the EU and NATO. His declaration that Kiev must cede territory to Russia to end the war was not well-received in Western capitals. In April, the premier seemingly predicted his own shooting, warning that the virulent political climate in Bratislava could result in politicians getting killed.

    Domestically, a number of foreign-funded media assets and NGOs have relentlessly targeted Fico for pursuing neutrality in the conflict. But over two years after Russia’s intervention, local polling indicates just 40% of the population blame Moscow for the proxy war, and 50% consider the US to be a threat to national security. Meanwhile, 69% of Slovakians believe by continuing to arm Ukraine, the West is “provoking Russia and bringing itself closer to the war” and 66% agreed that “the US is dragging [their] country into a war with Russia because it is profiting from it.”

    When Fico was re-elected in September 2023, this journalist speculated that a color revolution could soon be impending in Slovakia. We are now left to ponder whether the Prime Minister’s attempted assassination was a Western-directed plot to remove his troublesome government from office. Even though he is finally on the road to recovery, the threat of an overseas-orchestrated coup remains. A vast US-sponsored opposition political and media infrastructure is causing havoc in Bratislava, and this could easily escalate further.

    Slovakia has since the end of the Cold War stood apart from its neighbors. Folding the country into the EU and NATO and neutralizing its rebellious politics and population has required an enormous investment in time and money by Brussels and Washington, and relentless meddling in the country’s internal affairs by foreign-funded organizations and actors. Fico’s return to power threatened to not only derail that project, but create a regional contagion effect. Disinfecting the country therefore became of the utmost urgency for the West.

    Facebook purge suggests shooter was a no ‘lone wolf’

    Fico’s shooter, 71-year-old Juraj Cintula, is among the Slovaks who do not support Fico’s positions. A discrepant picture of the man has emerged since his arrest. Some acquaintances describe him as “weird and angry,” and “against everything.” Others report he was meek and mild-mannered, a far from obvious candidate to attempt a high-level political assassination. Cintula, an avowed Kiev ultra, claims he acted alone, his actions motivated by a desire to replace Fico’s government with a pro-Ukrainian administration. Slovakian court documents state that Cintula “wants military aid to be provided to Ukraine and considers the current government to be Judas towards the European Union,” and say this perception is why the would-be assassin “decided to act.”

    The mainstream media has made much of Cintula’s background as a dissident poet and writer, in a seeming effort to humanize the would-be killer. By contrast, Aaron Bushnell, who in February self-immolated in protest of Washington’s facilitation of the Gaza genocide, was widely tarred by journalists as a maladjusted, mentally unwell outcast. Unmentioned by any Western outlet is that during the 1980s, Cintula was under surveillance by Czechoslovak security services.

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    The reason for the Czechs’ interest is unclear, although it may have been due to anti-Communist actions, or foreign contacts. Whether Cintula had seditious confederates within or without Slovakia is a key line of inquiry for police. That all traces of the shooter’s Facebook profile were comprehensively scrubbed from the internet two hours after the shooting, before investigators could access the information, is also source of intense suspicion.

    While it is customary for the social network to purge the profiles of “dangerous individuals” – a fate this journalist has suffered for investigative reporting – following such incidents, in Bratislava Facebook relies on cooperating local individuals and organizations to police content. Apparently, Cintula’s profile was wiped before his identity had been reported in local media. Slovak authorities must now rely on the FBI to secure and provide the deleted information. Whether whatever is turned over will be unexpurgated is an open question.

    Another disturbing feature of mainstream reporting on the shooting is ubiquitous, persistent reference to Slovakia’s unstable politics. According to this narrative, Fico’s anti-Western policies have fueled the chaotic state of affairs, provoking the assassination attempt and making him ultimately responsible for the attempt on his life. In the days following the shooting, the BBC, Financial Times, New York Times and Germany’s esteemed Der Spiegel pinned the blame on Slovakia’s alleged “toxic” political culture. The latter revised its wording after significant public backlash. 

    One could be forgiven for concluding Western journalists take it as self-evident that defying EU/US will provides legitimate grounds for getting shot. Western politicians clearly do. On May 23rd, Georgian prime minister Irakli Kobakhidze revealed that EU commissioner Oliver Varhelyi warned him he could suffer the same fate as Fico, if his government didn’t drop a highly controversial “foreign influence transparency” law, which would compel local NGOs to disclose their sources of income.

    After listing the various ways the EU could retaliate against Georgia in a phone call with Kobakhidze, Varhelyi allegedly stated: “Look what happened to Fico, you should be very careful.”

    Varhelyi has since confirmed that he cited Fico’s fate in private conversations with Kobakhidze, but claimed he was merely concerned with “dissuading the Georgian political leadership” from adopting restrictions on foreign-funded NGOs. Varhelyi insisted in a written statement that he simply “felt the need” to caution the Prime Minister “not to enflame [sic] further the already fragile situation,” arguing that he only mentioned “the latest tragic event in Slovakia… as an example and as a reference to where such high levels of polarisation can lead in a society.”

    Public records show the US government regime change specialists at the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) have pumped millions into NGOs and media outlets in Slovakia under the aegis of mundane-sounding initiatives such as “strengthening civil society” and “promoting democratic values among youth.” Similar language is used to describe the purpose of Endowment grants in Georgia, financing groups at the forefront of recent violent unrest on the streets of Tbilisi, as The Grayzone has documented. Perhaps unsurprisingly, NED grantees are unanimous in their opposition to Fico. 

    Anyone searching for the source of Slovakia’s “toxic” politics need not look further than these US-backed organizations. Washington has stirred this cauldron for almost three decades, and with all sides of the Slovakian political class blaming one another the rising tide of hatred, it is hoping the pot will finally boil over.

    Regime change blueprint honed in Slovakia

    The NED-organized overthrow of Slobodan Milosevic in Yugoslavia in 2000 established an insurrectionary blueprint which was subsequently exported in the form of color revolutions. But throughout  the 1990s, Slovakian activists honed the tactics which would eventually be deployed by US regime change operatives across the Soviet sphere. 

    At the time, Bratislava was one of the only post-Communist countries that neither adopted ruinous neoliberal political and economic reforms, nor pursued EU or NATO membership. Slovakia’s then-Prime Minister Vladimir Meciar paid a harsh price for his independent stance. Relentlessly slandered by US and European leaders as a Russian pawn, he quickly became a target for regime change. 

    In 1997, then-Secretary of State Madeleine Albright publicly described Slovakia as “a black hole in the heart of Europe,” formally marking him for removal. So it was that NED funded the creation of Civic Campaign 98 (OK’98), a coalition of 11 anti-government NGOs.

    Explicitly modeled on an earlier NED-funded effort in Bulgaria, concerned with “creating chaos” after the Socialist Party won the 1990 election, many of the individuals involved had been part of Cold War-era Czechoslovak anti-Communist dissident groups. OK’98 was publicly framed as a non-partisan get-out-the-vote campaign, but its vast resources were explicitly deployed for anti-government purposes. Its activities included rock concerts, short films, and TV infomercials in which Slovak celebrities urged young people to vote.

    Meciar emerged with the most votes in the 1998 election, but the opposition gained enough seats to form a government. The NED assets who powered them to victory went on to give practical training to NED-supported pro-Western agitators like Pora, which ignited Kiev’s 2004 “Orange Revolution.” The insurrectionist youth group successfully overturned the re-election of President Viktor Yanukovych that year, installing the US-backed neoliberal Viktor Yushchenko in his place.

    The return of Robert Fico represented a significant broadside against ongoing US “democratization” of the former Soviet sphere. It opened up the prospect of further anti-NATO candidates and governments gaining office elsewhere in Europe, at the most inconvenient juncture imaginable for Brussels and Washington. 

    Not coincidentally, it was at this time polling for Germany’s upstart Alternative für Deutschland became turbocharged. The Euroskeptic party’s standing has soared in recent months, eliciting mainstream calls to ban it outright. And in North Macedonia just one week prior to Fico’s shooting, the anti-establishment VMRO-DPMNE party returned to power, overturning a NATO-fuelled color revolution that removed the party from office almost a decade earlier. 

    As the anti-Western backlash gained steam, a decision may have been made to draw a bloody red line in Slovakia.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/08/2024 – 15:45

  • Is California Moving Toward Government-Owned Electricity?
    Is California Moving Toward Government-Owned Electricity?

    Authored by John Seiler via The Epoch Times,

    In 1929, almost a century ago, the great economist Ludwig von Mises published “A Critique of Interventionism.”

    It’s written in plain language and is free online. He described how government intervention in the free market is not socialism, but eventually “leads to socialism because government intervention is not only superfluous and useless, but also harmful. … It lowers labor productivity and redirects production along lines of political command, rather than consumer satisfaction.”

    He died in 1973 at the good old age of 92 and was the teacher of Friedrich von Hayek, who won the Nobel economics prize in 1974.

    I bring up Mises because he could have been writing about California’s electricity market, which has been dysfunctional for three decades and well could end up entirely run by the California government.

    That’s actually what was called for in a June 2 editorial in the Los Angeles Times titled, “Californians don’t have to accept skyrocketing electric bills. Here’s how to fight back.”

    The way to fight back?

    “Customers of publicly owned utilities such as the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power pay lower electric rates in large part because a profit margin isn’t part of the equation. Gov. Gavin Newsom threatened to take over the troubled PG&E during its last bankruptcy if it didn’t become a more responsible utility. Ultimately, the governor struck an oversight deal. But a public takeover is still worth exploring to protect Californians from unaffordable rates.”

    The internal link for “is still worth exploring” clicks to a 2019 L.A. Times editorial, “We’ve reached a point where public ownership of PG&E shouldn’t just be on the table, it should be actively explored by state and local officials. Newsom has hinted he would open to public takeover of the utility and has raged about its ‘corporate greed,’ but he has also said he wants to see as many bidders for ownership as possible, including from other profit-making entities. Although it’s good for him to consider all approaches and all bidders, public ownership shouldn’t get short shrift in the process.”

    The first obvious hurdle to “public ownership”—socialism—is the Fifth Amendment, which concludes, “nor shall private property be taken for public use, without just compensation.”

    Here are the valuations of the state’s two largest private utilities:

    Where is the state of California supposed to get that kind of money? Float a bond? The state treasurer list California’s current state bond indebtedness at $71.7 billion. And they’ve only started issuing the $6.4 billion in new bonds for Proposition 1, which voters passed last March 5. In sum, a state takeover effectively would nearly triple state bond indebtedness.

    California’s Electricity Reform Collapse

    Instead of looking to the supposed price gouging by the private utilities, as the L.A. Times demands, it’s worth remembering the state’s own follies the past three decades during which I’ve written against all the anti-market attempts at restructuring. For those who want to read the details, a good history of the early years is, “The History of Electricity Restructuring in California,” from 2002 by Carl Blumstein, L.S. Friedman, and R.J. Green.

    The attempt at “deregulation” the authors begin with is Assembly Bill 1890, which Gov. Pete Wilson signed in 1996. It’s worth adding something they left out: 1996 was the only year in the past five decades in which Republicans controlled a house of the Legislature, in that case the Assembly under Speaker Curt Pringle (R-Anaheim), later Anaheim’s mayor. Mr. Wilson also was a Republican. So this was a Republican attempt at “privatization,” with cooperation from Senate Democrats.

    AB 1890 set up the California Power Exchange (PX), which “was required to operate an hour-by-hour spot market, in which generators could sell and retailers could buy power. … The new markets began operation for April 1, 1998. This was three months behind the original start date, but it had not proved possible to create the necessary computer systems in time.” It seems every computer system the state sets up has problems. “The PX ran quite smoothly, with low prices.”

    Then disaster struck.

    “Late in the spring of 2000 the California’s new electricity market began to collapse. In May the average PX price was $50/MWh, higher than any previous month. There were also numerous price spikes. … By the end of January, the collapse was complete. Blackouts occurred on eight days during the winter and spring even though demand was far below the summer peak. The Power Exchange suspended operations, and the CAISO [California Independent System Operator), SCE and PG&E were all insolvent.”

    For some reason the study didn’t mention Gov. Gray Davis’s role in this crisis. I remember in October 2000 he actually took a month off to “study” the problem. Then he panicked and signed contracts up to 20 years for natural gas at the height of the market price.

    In June 2002, Withold Henisz of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania described the damage: “Wholesale energy prices shot up tenfold and supply shortages forced repeated rolling blackouts. The crisis forced the state’s biggest utility, Pacific Gas and Electric, into bankruptcy and pushed another, Southern California Edison, to the brink. In desperation, California Gov. Gray Davis signed long-term contracts for $48 billion worth of power—prices two to three times today’s [2002] market rate.” But some of the contracts had to be paid for up to 20 years.

    Mr. Davis’ mistakes were part of what led to his recall in 2002 and replacement by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.

    Arnold Schwarzenegger’s AB 32 Disaster

    In his first two years in office, 2003-05, Mr. Schwarzenegger governed reasonably, cutting taxes and restraining spending. Then in November 2005, voters rejected his plank of reform initiatives, such as banning using union dues for political campaign initiatives. He then flipped from conservative to liberal as he headed to his November 2006 reelection, which he won.

    His signature legislation was Assembly Bill 32, the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, still in effect. Among its mandates:

    “It is the intent of the Legislature that the State Air Resources Board consult with the Public Utilities Commission in the development of emissions reduction measures, including limits on emissions of greenhouse gases applied to electricity and natural gas providers regulated by the Public Utilities Commission in order to ensure that electricity and natural gas providers are not required to meet duplicative or inconsistent regulatory requirements.

    “It is the intent of the Legislature that the State Air Resources Board design emissions reduction measures to meet the statewide emissions limits for greenhouse gases established pursuant to this division in a manner that minimizes costs and maximizes benefits for California’s economy, improves and modernizes California’s energy infrastructure and maintains electric system reliability, maximizes additional environmental and economic co-benefits for California, and complements the state’s efforts to improve air quality.”

    You can see the duality problem there: The state is supposed to both limit “greenhouses gases” for electricity production while maintaining “electric system reliability.” It’s hard enough for private companies, or for that matter socialist government enterprises, to maintain one government dictate. But two dictates make it doubly difficult, even impossible.

    Renewable Energy and EV Mandates

    Next, throw in renewable mandates, such as this from December 2022: “The California Air Resources Board today approved the final proposed 2022 Scoping Plan, a world-leading roadmap to address climate change that cuts greenhouse gas emissions by 85% and achieves carbon neutrality in 2045. The 2022 Scoping Plan provides a detailed sector-by-sector roadmap to guide the world’s fourth-largest economy away from its current dependance on petroleum and fossil gas to clean and renewable energy resources and zero-emission vehicles.”

    Renewable energy, such as wind and solar, requires expensive new power lines on top of the existing power lines. The zero-emission vehicle mandate is for 100 percent new cars to be zero-emission by 2035.

    And now AI—Artificial Intelligence—is developing rapidly in Silicon Valley, which leads the world in this area, and requires even more electric juice every year.

    Finally, there’s the latest attempt at reforming sky-high electricity rates, which I wrote about last week in, “New California Electricity Scheme Promotes ‘Equity,’ ‘Clean Energy Transition.’” It’s only going to make matters worse.

    It’s been three decades of folly and disaster. No wonder for March 2024 the Energy Information Agency pegged California’s average residential rate at 32.47 cents per kilowatt hour (kwh), the second-highest in the nation. North Dakota’s was the lowest, at 10.44 cents.

    In a future article, I’ll discuss some free-market remedies to restore to California a sensible electricity market and lower prices for consumers.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/08/2024 – 15:10

  • Earth Overshoot Day Is Coming Sooner and Sooner
    Earth Overshoot Day Is Coming Sooner and Sooner

    This year, August 1 will mark Earth Overshoot Day, the day that humanity’s demand for ecological resources exceeds the resources Earth can regenerate within that year.

    Over the decades, the ecological and carbon footprint of humans has gradually increased, all while Earth’s biocapacity, i.e. its ability to regenerate resources has diminished significantly. That has led to Earth Overshoot Day arriving earlier and earlier, moving from as late as December 30 in 1970. In the pandemic year of 2020, it did move back somewhat significantly from July 29 to August 22. But, despite 2023 representing a slight positive shift from 2022’s July 28, the trend was one of stagnation rather than progress.

    Infographic: Earth Overshoot Day Is Coming Sooner and Sooner | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    The concept of Earth Overshoot Day was first conceived by Andrew Simms of the UK think tank New Economics Foundation, which partnered with Global Footprint Network in 2006 to launch the first global Earth Overshoot Day campaign. WWF, the world’s largest conservation organization, has participated in Earth Overshoot Day since 2007.

    To find out more about the calculations behind Earth Overshoot Day, please click here.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/08/2024 – 14:35

  • Florida Supreme Court Sides With DeSantis Over Removal Of Soros-Backed Prosecutor
    Florida Supreme Court Sides With DeSantis Over Removal Of Soros-Backed Prosecutor

    Authored by Eric Lundrum via American Greatness,

    On Thursday, the Florida Supreme Court ruled in favor of Governor Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.) over his decision to remove a far-left prosecutor from her post.

    As Fox News reports, DeSantis first suspended State Attorney Monique Worrel in August of 2023, accusing her of “dereliction of duty” due to her soft-on-crime policies. Worrel subsequently sued the DeSantis Administration and demanded that she be reinstated, claiming that her firing was an “arbitrary, unsubstantiated exercise of the suspension power.”

    The Florida Supreme Court ruled 6-1 in DeSantis’ favor.

    “We cannot agree with Worrel that the allegations in the Executive Order are impermissibly vague, nor that they address conduct that falls within the lawful exercise of prosecutorial discretion,” the majority’s opinion declared.

    “We have said that a suspension order does not infringe on a state attorney’s lawful exercise of prosecutorial discretion where it alleges that such discretion is, in fact, not being exercised in individual cases but, rather, that generalized policies have resulted in categorical enforcement practices.”

    DeSantis had previously touted his removal of Worrel as a major accomplishment during his ultimately unsuccessful campaign for president.

    “The practices and policies of her office have allowed murderers, other violent offenders, and dangerous drug traffickers to receive extremely reduced sentences and escape the full consequences of their criminal conduct. In some cases, these offenders have evaded incarceration altogether,” the governor said shortly after her firing.

    “State Attorney Worrel’s practices undermine Florida law and endanger the safety, security, and welfare of the communities that Ms. Worrell was elected to serve.”

    When she was first elected in 2020, Worrel’s campaign was supported by Our Vote Our Voice, a left-wing group that had received $1 million from Democracy Now, a far-left group supported by George Soros. Our Vote Our Voice subsequently spent $1.5 million in support of Worrel’s campaign.

    DeSantis had previously fired another prosecutor in the state in August of 2022, when he removed Hillsborough County State Attorney Andrew Warren over his refusal to enforce the state’s abortion ban. That removal was also upheld in court at the federal level.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/08/2024 – 14:00

  • IDF Frees 4 Hostages In Biggest Gaza Rescue Op Since War Began
    IDF Frees 4 Hostages In Biggest Gaza Rescue Op Since War Began

    Four hostages have been recovered alive in what’s being widely described as the Israel Defense Forces’ biggest rescue operation in the Gaza Strip since the war began.

    All of them had been initially kidnapped by Hamas from the Nova music festival on October 7 and they are: Noa Argamani, 25, Almong Meir Jan, 21, Andrey Kozlov, 27 and Shlomi Ziv, 40. Authorities have confirmed they are in good medical condition and they underwent evaluations at Tel Aviv’s largest hospital.

    From left; Shlomi Ziv; Andrey Kozlov and Almog Meir Jan and Noa Argamani.

    In total hundreds of soldiers participated in the high-risk operation, but which was spearheaded by the police’s elite Yamam counter-terrorism unit and Shin Bet agents.

    These units raided a pair of Hamas buildings in central Gaza’s Nuseirat where the captives were being held, with the operation done “under fire”. One officer of the counter-terror unit, identified as Chief Inspector Arnon Zamora, was critically wounded in the assault and later died at a hospital.

    At least 50 Palestinians were killed in the major operation, Israeli media reports, however the military hasn’t specified how many were combatants. Some regional reports say that as many as 200 Palestinians, among them many civilians, were killed in related strikes and operations in central Gaza on Saturday.

    IDF spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said that “During the operation, we struck… threats to our forces in the area. These threats were struck from the land, air, and sea… for us to extract our forces [and the hostages].” The freed Israelis had been in captivity for eight months.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/08/2024 – 13:25

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Jun 08

Today’s News 8th June 2024

  • The Military-Industrial Complex Is Killing Us All
    The Military-Industrial Complex Is Killing Us All

    Authored by David Vine -Therisa (ISA) Arriola via CounterPunch.org,

    We need to talk about what bombs do in war. Bombs shred flesh. Bombs shatter bones. Bombs dismember. Bombs cause brains, lungs, and other organs to shake so violently they bleed, rupture, and cease functioning. Bombs injure. Bombs kill. Bombs destroy.

    Bombs also make people rich.

    When a bomb explodes, someone profits. And when someone profits, bombs claim more unseen victims. Every dollar spent on a bomb is a dollar not spent saving a life from a preventable death, a dollar not spent curing cancer, a dollar not spent educating children. That’s why, so long ago, retired five-star general and President Dwight D. Eisenhower rightly called spending on bombs and all things military a “theft.”

    The perpetrator of that theft is perhaps the world’s most overlooked destructive force. It looms unnoticed behind so many major problems in the United States and the world today. Eisenhower famously warned Americans about it in his 1961 farewell address, calling it for the first time “the military-industrial complex,” or the MIC.

    Start with the fact that, thanks to the MIC’s ability to hijack the federal budget, total annual military spending is far larger than most people realize: around $1,500,000,000,000 ($1.5 trillion). Contrary to what the MIC scares us into believing, that incomprehensibly large figure is monstrously out of proportion to the few military threats facing the United States. One-and-a-half trillion dollars is about double what Congress spends annually on all non-military purposes combined.

    Calling this massive transfer of wealth a “theft” is no exaggeration, since it’s taken from pressing needs like ending hunger and homelessness, offering free college and pre-K, providing universal health care, and building a green energy infrastructure to save ourselves from climate change. Virtually every major problem touched by federal resources could be ameliorated or solved with fractions of the cash claimed by the MIC. The money is there.

    The bulk of our taxpayer dollars are seized by a relatively small group of corporate war profiteers led by the five biggest companies profiting off the war industry: Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon (RTX), Boeing, and General Dynamics. As those companies have profited, the MIC has sowed incomprehensible destruction globally, keeping the United States locked in endless wars that, since 2001, have killed an estimated 4.5 million people, injured tens of millions more, and displaced at least 38 million, according to Brown University’s Costs of War Project.

    The MIC’s hidden domination of our lives must end, which means we must dismantle it. That may sound totally unrealistic, even fantastical. It is not. And by the way, we’re talking about dismantling the MIC, not the military itself. (Most members of the military are, in fact, among that the MIC’s victims.)

    While profit has long been part of war, the MIC is a relatively new, post-World War II phenomenon that formed thanks to a series of choices made over time. Like other processes, like other choices, they can be reversed and the MIC can be dismantled.

    The question, of course, is how?

    The Emergence of a Monster

    To face what it would take to dismantle the MIC, it’s first necessary to understand how it was born and what it looks like today. Given its startling size and intricacy, we and a team of colleagues created a series of graphics to help visualize the MIC and the harm it inflicts, which we’re sharing publicly for the first time.

    The MIC was born after World War II from, as Eisenhower explained, the “conjunction of an immense military establishment” — the Pentagon, the armed forces, intelligence agencies, and others — “and a large arms industry.” Those two forces, the military and the industrial, united with Congress to form an unholy “Iron Triangle” or what some scholars believe Eisenhower initially and more accurately called the military-industrial–congressional complex. To this day those three have remained the heart of the MIC, locked in a self-perpetuating cycle of legalized corruption (that also features all too many illegalities).

    The basic system works like this: First, Congress takes exorbitant sums of money from us taxpayers every year and gives it to the Pentagon. Second, the Pentagon, at Congress’s direction, turns huge chunks of that money over to weapons makers and other corporations via all too lucrative contracts, gifting them tens of billions of dollars in profits. Third, those contractors then use a portion of the profits to lobby Congress for yet more Pentagon contracts, which Congress is generally thrilled to provide, perpetuating a seemingly endless cycle.

    But the MIC is more complicated and insidious than that. In what’s effectively a system of legalized bribery, campaign donations regularly help boost Pentagon budgets and ensure the awarding of yet more lucrative contracts, often benefiting a small number of contractors in a congressional district or state. Such contractors make their case with the help of a virtual army of more than 900 Washington-based lobbyists. Many of them are former Pentagon officials, or former members of Congress or congressional staffers, hired through a “revolving door” that takes advantage of their ability to lobby former colleagues. Such contractors also donate to think tanks and university centers willing to support increased Pentagon spending, weapons programs, and a hyper-militarized foreign policy. Ads are another way to push weapons programs on elected officials.

    Such weapons makers also spread their manufacturing among as many Congressional districts as possible, allowing senators and representatives to claim credit for jobs created. MIC jobs, in turn, often create cycles of dependency in low-income communities that have few other economic drivers, effectively buying the support of locals.

    For their part, contractors regularly engage in legalized price gouging, overcharging taxpayers for all manner of weapons and equipment. In other cases, contractor fraud literally steals taxpayer money. The Pentagon is the only government agency that has never passed an audit — meaning it literally can’t keep track of its money and assets — yet it still receives more from Congress than every other government agency combined.

    As a system, the MIC ensures that Pentagon spending and military policy are driven by contractors’ search for ever-higher profits and the reelection desires of members of Congress, not by any assessment of how to best defend the country. The resulting military is unsurprisingly shoddy, especially given the money spent. Americans should pray it never actually has to defend the United States.

    No other industry — not even Big Pharma or Big Oil — can match the power of the MIC in shaping national policy and dominating spending. Military spending is, in fact, now larger (adjusting for inflation) than at the height of the wars in Vietnam, Afghanistan, or Iraq, or, in fact, at any time since World War II, despite the absence of a threat remotely justifying such spending. Many now realize that the primary beneficiary of more than 22 years of endless U.S. wars in this century has been the industrial part of the MIC, which has made hundreds of billions of dollars since 2001. “Who Won in Afghanistan? Private Contractors” was the Wall Street Journal‘s all too apt headline in 2021.

    Endless Wars, Endless Death, Endless Destruction

    “Afghanistan” in that headline could have been replaced by Korea, Vietnam, or Iraq, among other seemingly endless U.S. wars since World War II. That the MIC has profited off them is no coincidence. It has helped drive the country into conflicts in countries ranging from Korea, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos, to El Salvador, Guatemala, Panama, and Grenada, to Afghanistan, Libya, Somalia, and so many others.

    Deaths and injuries from such wars have reached the tens of millions. The number of estimated deaths from the post-9/11 wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Syria, and Yemen is eerily similar to that from the wars in Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia: 4.5 million.

    The numbers are so large that they can become numbing. The Irish poet Pádraig Ó Tuama helps us remember to focus on:

    one life
    one life
    one life
    one life
    one life

    because each time
    is the first time
    that that life
    has been taken.

    The Environmental Toll

    The MIC’s damage extends to often irreparable environmental harm, involving the poisoning of ecosystems, devastating biodiversity loss, and the U.S. military’s carbon footprint, which is larger than that of any other organization on earth. At war or in daily training, the MIC has literally fueled global heating and climate change through the burning of fuels to run bases, operate vehicles, and produce weaponry.

    The MIC’s human and environmental costs are particularly invisible outside the continental United States. In U.S. territories and other political “grey zones,” investments in military infrastructure and technologies rely in part on the second-class citizenship of Indigenous communities, often dependent on the military for their livelihoods.

    Endless Wars at Home

    As the MIC has fueled wars abroad, so it has fueled militarization domestically. Why, for example, have domestic police forces become so militarized? At least part of the answer: since 1990, Congress has allowed the Pentagon to transfer its “excess” weaponry and equipment (including tanks and drones) to local law enforcement agencies. These transfers conveniently allow the Pentagon and its contractors to ask Congress for replacement purchases, further fueling the MIC.

    Seeking new profits from new markets, contractors have also increasingly hawked their military products directly to SWAT teams and other police forces, border patrol outfits, and prison systems. Politicians and corporations have poured billions of dollars into border militarization and mass incarceration, helping fuel the rise of the lucrative “border-industrial complex” and “prison-industrial complex,” respectively. Domestic militarization has disproportionately harmed Black, Latino, and Indigenous communities.

    An Existential Threat

    Some will defend the military-industrial complex by insisting that we need its jobs; some by claiming it’s keeping Ukrainians alive and protecting the rest of Europe from Vladimir Putin’s Russia; some by warning about China. Each of those arguments is an example of the degree to which the MIC’s power relies on systematically manufacturing fear, threats, and crises that help enrich arms merchants and others in the MIC by driving ever more military spending and war (despite a nearly unbroken record of catastrophic failure when it comes to nearly every U.S. conflict since World War II).

    The argument that current levels of military spending must be maintained for “the jobs” should be laughable. No military should be a jobs program. While the country needs job programs, military spending has proven to be a poor job creator or an engine of economic growth. Research shows it creates far fewer jobs than comparable investments in health care, education, or infrastructure.

    U.S. weaponry has aided Ukrainian self-defense, though the weapons manufacturers are anything but altruists. If they truly cared about Ukrainians, they would have forgone any profits, leaving more money for humanitarian aid to that country. Instead, they’ve used that war, as they have Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza and growing tensions in the Pacific, to cynically inflate their profits and stock prices dramatically.

    Discard the fearmongering and it should be clear that the Russian military has demonstrated its weakness, its inability to decisively conquer territory near its own borders, let alone march into Europe. In fact, both the Russian and Chinese militaries pose no conventional military threat to the United States. The Russian military’s annual budget is one-tenth or less than the size of the U.S. one. China’s military budget is one-third to one-half its size. The disparities are far larger if you combine the U.S. military budget with those of its NATO and Asian allies.

    Despite this, members of the MIC are increasingly encouraging direct confrontations with Russia and China, aided by Putin’s war and China’s own provocations. In the “Indo-Pacific” (as the military calls it), the MIC is continuing to cash in as the Pentagon builds up bases and forces surrounding China in Australia, Guam, the Federated States of Micronesia, Japan, the Marshall Islands, the Northern Mariana Islands, Palau, Papua New Guinea, and the Philippines.

    Such steps and a similar buildup in Europe are only encouraging China and Russia to strengthen their own militaries. (Just imagine how American politicians would respond if China or Russia were to build a single military base anywhere close to this country’s borders.) While all of this is increasingly profitable for the MIC, it is heightening the risk of a military clash that could spiral into a potentially species-ending nuclear war between the United States and China, Russia, or both.

    The Urgency of Dismantling

    The urgency of dismantling the military-industrial complex should be clear. The future of the species and planet depends on it.

    The most obvious way to weaken the MIC would be to starve it of its lifeblood, our tax dollars. Few noticed that, after leaving office, former Trump-era Pentagon chief Christopher Miller called for cutting the Pentagon’s budget in half. Yes, in half.

    Even a 30% cut — as happened all too briefly after the Cold War ended in 1991 — would free hundreds of billions of dollars annually. Imagine how such sums could build safer, healthier, more secure lives in this country, including a just economic transition for any military personnel and contractors losing jobs. And mind you, that military budget would still be significantly larger than China’s, or Russia’s, Iran’s, and North Korea’s combined.

    Of course, even thinking about cutting the Pentagon budget is difficult because the MIC has captured both political parties, virtually guaranteeing ever-rising military spending. Which brings us back to the puzzle of how to dismantle the MIC as a system.

    In short, we’re working on the answers. With the diverse group of experts who helped produce this article’s graphics, we’re exploring, among other ideas, divestment campaigns and lawsuits; banning war profiteering; regulating or nationalizing weapons manufacturers; and converting parts of the military into an unarmed disaster relief, public health, and infrastructure force.

    Though all too many of us will continue to believe that dismantling the MIC is unrealistic, given the threats facing us, it’s time to think as boldly as possible about how to roll back its power, resist the invented notion that war is inevitable, and build the world we want to see. Just as past movements reduced the power of Big Tobacco and the railroad barons, just as some are now taking on Big Pharma, Big Tech, and the prison-industrial complex, so we must take on the MIC to build a world focused on making human lives rich (in every sense) rather than one focused on bombs and other weaponry that brings wealth to a select few who benefit from death.

    This piece first appeared in TomDispatch.

    David Vine, a TomDispatch regular and professor of anthropology at American University, is the author most recently of The United States of War: A Global History of America’s Endless Conflicts, from Columbus to the Islamic State. He is also the author of Base Nation: How U.S. Military Bases Abroad Harm America and the World, part of the American Empire Project. Theresa (Isa) Arriola is an assistant professor in the department of sociology and anthropology at Concordia University. She chairs Our Common Wealth 670 (OCW 670) on Saipan, a community advocacy group dedicated to research, education, and awareness about military planning in the Mariana Islands. She was born and raised on Saipan and is an Indigenous Chamorro woman. Her research interests center around militarism, indigeneity, sovereignty, and Oceania.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/07/2024 – 23:05

  • How Many Data Centers Do Major Big Tech Companies Have?
    How Many Data Centers Do Major Big Tech Companies Have?

    The Big Tech companies are often compared against each other in many ways: how much money they make, market capitalization, and the newest flavor, generative AI capabilities.

    But in their great strides to capture the digital realm, Visual Capitalist’s Pallavi Rao charts how many huge data facilities do they need for all their services, analytics, and storage?

    Sourcing information from Meta, Google, Microsoft, and some third-party estimates for Apple and Amazon, we find out.

    Ranked: Big Tech’s Data Facilities

    Cloud computing giants – Microsoft and Amazon – have data centers in the triple-digits to accommodate their customers’ burgeoning business demands.

    However, there’s no one standard of how big a data center needs to be, so quantity doesn’t automatically translate into greater capacity.

    Note: *Third-party estimates vary depending on the source. AWS is usually listed between 160–220 and Apple from 8–10. **Microsoft lists their count as “300+.”

    According to Statista, AWS still maintains the biggest market share in the cloud computing segment (31%) even as Microsoft Azure edges ever closer (25%).

    In fact, Amazon is aiming to spend $150 billion on more facilities over the next 15 years. Estimates say 26 data centers are currently under construction. All of this, of course, to chase the AI boom.

    Despite dominating our digital lives however, Big Tech aren’t the only players when it comes to data center metrics. For example, Digital Realty, a colocation data center provider, would rank alongside Microsoft with 300+ data facilities.

    If you enjoyed this post, and you’re wondering which Big Tech players have made their forays into AI, check out Ranked: The Most Popular AI Tools. We visualize the most popular AI tools of 2023 along with recent tech adoption cycles and the software products that defined them.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/07/2024 – 22:40

  • US Wage-Price Spiral Is Still Persistent
    US Wage-Price Spiral Is Still Persistent

    Authored by Law Ka-chung via The Epoch Times,

    The persistent inflation poses difficulties for both policymakers and researchers. However, this is not anything new, and it has already been well-documented since the era of John Maynard Keynes in the 1930s. I quickly ran a few regression analyses using a full sample of U.S. core CPI inflation (excluding food and energy) data and found various forms of autoregressive (AR) models resulting in quite long statistically significant lags. In one version, the 4th to 12th lag terms were all significant, suggesting inflation persistence could last for almost a year.

    Traditionally, well-established models explained this kind of price stickiness. The typical taxonomy goes along two dimensions: whether there are market imperfections in the labor or goods market and whether markets are clear. The resulting four kinds of models are the worker-misperception model (labor market imperfection), imperfect-information model (goods market imperfection but clear), sticky-wage model (labor market imperfection and not clear), and sticky-price model (goods market imperfection and not clear), respectively.

    Nevertheless, these assumptions are less valid nowadays. In this AI and big data era, market imperfection is much reduced, if not completely eliminated. Markets not clearing is not a common assumption adopted in the popular general equilibrium type of models. While pricing can be adjusted relatively quickly, wages cannot. Under standard labour contracts, wage reduction is uncommon, while the increase is usually done on a yearly basis. Life will be much easier if price stickiness is explained by wage stickiness, as is the case with most modern models.

    Thus, the wage-price spiral hypothesis is essential for linking the two. If established, inflation stickiness can be explained by unemployment stickiness, which is also consistent with the Phillips curve framework. The accompanying chart checks whether the spiral is there.

    U.S. Wage-Price Spiral. (Courtesy of Law Ka-chung)

    The blue line shows the hourly earnings year-over-year (YoY) growth, which is the median for all workers from the third quarter of 2007 and, prior to that, the average for production workers. The red line shows CPI YoY growth for services only. The reason for narrowing down CPI to services only is that this takes up 64 percent of the basket, and this category is seen to be highly resistant.

    From the chart, we observe the following.

    • First, services inflation still stands at a very high level of 5.2 percent.

    • Second, while price growth was much higher than that of wages around 1980 due to uncontrolled inflation expectations, nowadays the two co-move suggesting inflation expectations are probably well anchored.

    • Third, the hourly earnings growth and services inflation have been similar in level since the mid-1990s (that is, for a quarter century). Fourth and most importantly, the uptrends for both since 2010 are clear, suggesting such inflation pressure has been there for a long time.

    As the high base period has passed, the observed inflation in upcoming months will be higher than the recent ones. Earnings inflation easing has been slowing to 4 percent. Based on the third observation just mentioned, services inflation and, hence, the overall level is likely to be maintained at a similar level, that is, 4 percent for some months ahead.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/07/2024 – 22:15

  • Visualizing Four Decades Of US Wildfires
    Visualizing Four Decades Of US Wildfires

    A complex interplay of factors are leading to North America’s long wildfire season: increasing summer temperatures, erratic precipitation patterns, changing land use, and ironically, fire suppression practices.

    But what does the data say? Visual Capitalist’s Pallavi Rao visualizes the millions of acres burned by U.S. wildfires from 1983 to May 2024, per statistics from the National Interagency Fire Center.

    2010 and 2015 Saw Record Land Burned by Wildfires

    From glancing at the chart, it’s apparent that U.S. wildfires are burning significantly more acres on average in the 2010s than they did in the 1980s. Interestingly, the World Economic Forum points out that while the number of fires itself has fallen since 2005, the land burned has increased, indicating wildfire intensity has grown.

    Year Million Acres Burned
    1983 1.3
    1984 1.1
    1985 2.9
    1986 2.7
    1987 2.4
    1988 5.0
    1989 1.8
    1990 4.6
    1991 3.0
    1992 2.1
    1993 1.8
    1994 4.1
    1995 1.8
    1996 6.1
    1997 2.9
    1998 1.3
    1999 5.7
    2000 7.4
    2001 3.6
    2002 7.2
    2003 4.0
    2004* 8.1
    2005 8.7
    2006 9.9
    2007 9.3
    2008 5.3
    2009 5.9
    2010 3.4
    2011 8.7
    2012 9.3
    2013 4.3
    2014 3.6
    2015 10.1
    2016 5.5
    2017 10.0
    2018 8.8
    2019 4.7
    2020 10.1
    2021 7.1
    2022 7.6
    2023 2.7
    2024** 1.9

    *Doesn’t include North Carolina data. **As of May 27, 2024.

    In 2015, wildfires burned more than 10 million acres in the country, a first since these records began. Five years later saw a repeat, thanks to four Californian fires that together burned more than 2.3 million acres in the state.

    For comparison, U.S. wildfires burned approximately 2.7 million acres in total in 2023, the lowest amount recorded since 1998. An unusually wet Californian summer helped prevent errant sparks from turning into raging disasters.

    Nevertheless, in August, a devastating fire nearly wiped out the historic town of Lahaina, Maui, killing at least 100 people.

    Finally, U.S. wildfires have burned 1.9 million acres in 2024 so far, currently below the 10-year annual average of 7.2 million acres. However, experts predict a hotter-than-usual summer and autumn, and fire activity is expected to increase as the summer progresses.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/07/2024 – 21:50

  • A Substantial Chance Of A Major Financial Collapse & The End Of Offshored Industrialization
    A Substantial Chance Of A Major Financial Collapse & The End Of Offshored Industrialization

    Authored by Gail Tverberg via Our Finite World,

    Moving industrialization offshore can look like a good idea at first. But as fossil fuel energy supplies deplete, this strategy works less well. Countries doing the mining and manufacturing may be less interested in trading. Also, the broken supply lines of 2020 and 2021 showed that transferring major industries offshore could lead to empty shelves in stores, plus unhappy customers.

    The United States started moving industry offshore in 1974 (Figure 1) in response to spiking oil prices in 1973-1974 (Figure 2).

    Figure 1. US industrial energy consumption per capita, divided among fossil fuels, biomass, and electricity, based on data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). All energy types, including electricity, are measured their capacity to generate heat. This is the approach used by the EIA, the IEA, and most researchers.

    Industry is based on the use of fossil fuels. Electricity also plays a role, but it is more like the icing on the cake than the basis of industrial production. Industry is polluting in many ways, so it was an “easy sell” to move industry offshore. But now the United States is realizing that it needs to re-industrialize. At the same time, we are being told about the need to transition the entire economy to electricity to prevent climate change.

    In this post, I will try to explain the situation–how fossil fuel prices have spiked many times, including 1973-1974 (oil) and more recently (coal in 2022). I will also discuss the key role fossil fuels play. Because of the key role of fossil fuels, a reduction in per-capita fossil fuel consumption likely leads to a transition to fewer goods and services, on average, per person. A transition to all electricity does not seem to be feasible. Instead, we seem to be headed for increased geopolitical conflict and the possibility of a financial crash seems greater.

    [1] When fossil fuel supplies become constrained, prices tend to spike to high levels, and then fall back again.

    Economists and energy analysts have tended to assume that fossil fuel prices would rise to very high levels, allowing extraction of huge amounts of difficult-to-extract fossil fuels. For example, the International Energy Agency (IEA) in the past has shown forecasts of future oil production assuming that inflation-adjusted oil prices will rise to $300 per barrel.

    Instead of rising to a very high level, fossil fuel prices tend to spike because there is a two-way contest between the price the consumers can afford and the price the sellers need to keep reinvesting in new fields to keep fossil fuel supplies increasing. Prices oscillate back and forth, with neither buyers nor sellers finding themselves very happy with the situation. The current price of the benchmark, Brent oil, is $81.

    [2] Historical data shows spiking oil and coal prices.

    Figure 2. World oil prices, adjusted to the US 2022 price level, based on data of the 2023 Statistical Review of World Energy, prepared by the Energy Institute.

    When world oil prices started to spike in the 1973-1974 period, the US started to move its industrial production offshore (Figure 1). The very low inflation-adjusted prices that prevailed up until 1972 no longer held. Manufacturing costs climbed higher. Consumers wanted smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles, and such cars were already being manufactured both in Europe and in Japan. Importing these cars made sense.

    More recently, coal prices have begun to spike. Coal prices vary by location, but the general patterns are similar for the types of coal shown.

    Figure 3. Coal prices per ton, at a few sample locations, based on data shown in the 2023 Statistical Review of World Energy prepared by the Energy Institute. Prices have not been adjusted for inflation.

    Before China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, coal prices tended to be below $50 per ton (figure 3). At that price, coal was a very inexpensive fuel for making steel and concrete, and for many other industrial uses.

    Figure 4. World coal consumption per capita, based on data of the 2023 Statistical Review of World Energy prepared by the Energy Institute, except for 2023, which is based on an estimate by the IEA.

    After China joined the WTO, China’s coal consumption soared (Figure 4), allowing it to industrialize. Figure 3 shows that the extra demand initially pushed coal prices up a little. By 2022, coal prices had soared. At present, coal prices are part-way back down, perhaps partly because higher interest rates are dampening world demand for coal.

    Natural gas prices also soared in 2022, at the same time as coal prices. Both coal and natural gas are fuels that are burned to produce electricity. When the coal supply is constrained, utilities will try to purchase more electricity produced by burning natural gas. However, it is difficult to store much natural gas for future use. Thus, a shortage of internationally traded coal can simultaneously lead to a shortage of internationally traded natural gas.

    Having oil, coal, and natural gas prices spiking at the same time leads to inflation and to many unhappy citizens.

    [3] The 1997 Kyoto Protocol encouraged the trend toward moving industry to lower-cost countries.

    In Figure 1, I show a dotted line at 1997. At that time, an international treaty stating that the participating countries would limit their own CO2 emissions attracted a lot of attention. An easy way to limit CO2 emissions was by moving industry overseas. Even though the US did not sign the treaty until later, the treaty gave the US a reason to move industry overseas. We can see from Figure 1 that US industrialization, as measured by the energy per capita required to industrialize, began to fall even more rapidly after 1997.

    [4] There were many reasons besides the Kyoto Protocol why Advanced Economies would want to move industry overseas.

    There were many reasons to move industry overseas besides spiking oil prices and concern over CO2 levels. With such a change, customers in the US (and European countries making a similar change) gained access to lower-cost goods and services. With the money the customers could save, they were able to buy more discretionary goods and services, which helped to ramp up local economies.

    Also, industry tends to be polluting. Smog tends to be problem if coal is burned, or if diesel with high sulfur content is burned. Mining tends to produce a lot of toxic waste. Moving this pollution offshore to poorer countries would solve the pollution problem without the high cost of attempting to capture this pollution and properly store it.

    Furthermore, business-owners in the United States could sense the opportunity to grow to be truly international in size if they moved much of their industry overseas.

    [5] All the globalization and moving of industry overseas had a downside: more wage and wealth disparity.

    In a matter of a few years, the economy changed to provide fewer high-paying factory jobs in the United States. Increasingly, those without advanced education found it difficult to provide an adequate living for their families. The high incomes were disproportionately going to highly educated workers and the owners of capital goods (Figure 5).

    Figure 5. U. S. Income Shares of Top 1% and Top 0.1%, Wikipedia exhibit by Piketty and Saez.

    [6] Part of what caused the growing wage and wealth disparities in Figure 5 was the growing industrialization of China (Figure 6).

    China, with its growing industrialization, could outcompete whole industries, such as furniture-making and garment-making, leaving US workers to find lower-paid jobs in the service sector. Similar outcomes unfolded in the EU and Japan, as industrialization started moving to different parts of the world.

    Figure 6. Industrial production in 2015 US$, for the United States, the EU, Japan, and China, based on World Bank Industrial Production (including construction) data. These amounts are not per capita.

    [7] The indirect impact of the Kyoto Protocol was to move CO2 emissions slightly away from the Advanced Nations. Overall, CO2 emissions rose.

    Figure 7. Carbon dioxide emissions from energy utilization, based on data of the 2023 Statistical Review of World Energy, prepared by the Energy Institute. These amounts are not per capita.

    Anyone who expected that the 1997 Kyoto Protocol would reduce world CO2 emissions would have been disappointed.

    [8] The direct use of fossil fuels plays a far more important role in the economy than we have ever been taught.

    Thanks to the direct use of fossil fuels, the world can have paved roads, bridges made of steel, and electricity transmission lines. It can have concrete. It can have pharmaceutical products, herbicides, and insecticides. Many of these benefits come from the chemical properties of fossil fuels. Electricity, by itself, could never provide these products since it has been stripped of the chemical benefits of fossil fuels. Electricity is also difficult to store.

    With the benefit of fossil fuels, the world can also have high-quality steel, with precisely the composition desired by those making it. With only electricity, it is possible to use electric arc furnaces to recycle used steel, but such steel is limited both in quantity and quality. US production of steel amounts to 5% of world supply (primarily using electric arc furnaces), while China’s production (mostly using coal) amounts to 50% of world supply.

    I highly recommend reading the article, Trapped in the Iron Age, by Kris De Decker. He explains that the world uses an enormous amount of steel, but most of it is hidden in places we can’t see. Today, with the US’s limited steel-making capability, the US needs to import most of its steel, including steel pipes from China to drill its oil wells. We cannot see how dependent we have become on other countries for our basic steel needs.

    China and India have both based their recent growth primarily on rising coal consumption. This is what has kept world CO2 emissions high. The US is now exporting coal to these countries.

    [9] Citizens of Advanced Economies are easily confused about the importance of fossil fuel use because they have never been taught about the subject and because their worldview is distorted by the narrow view they see from within their homes and offices.

    Figure 8. Electricity consumption as a percentage of total energy consumption by US sector, based on the data of the US EIA. Amounts are through 2023.

    Figure 8 shows that the sector with the highest share of electricity use is the commercial sector. This includes uses such as stores, offices, and hospitals. The most visible energy use is lighting and operating computers, which gives the perception that electricity is the greatest energy use. But these businesses also need to be heated, and heat is often produced by burning natural gas directly. Businesses also need back-up for their electrical systems. Such back-up is typically provided by diesel-powered generators.

    Residential usage is similar. It is easy to see the use of electricity, but heat is generally needed during winter. This is often provided by natural gas or propane. Natural gas is also often used in hot water heaters, stoves, and clothes dryers. Occasionally, wood is used to heat homes; this would go into the non-electricity portion, as well.

    The thing that most people do not realize is that industrial use and transportation use are extremely large sectors of the economy (Figure 9), and these sectors are very low consumers of electricity (Figure 8). Also, if the US and Europe were to re-industrialize to produce more of our manufactured goods, our industrial sectors would need to be much larger than they are today.

    Figure 9. US Energy Consumption per capita by sector based on data of the US EIA. Amounts are through 2023.

    In recent years, electrical consumption as a percentage of total energy consumption for the industrial sector has averaged about 13% of the total (Figure 9). Industries typically need high heat levels; such heat can usually be achieved at lowest cost by burning fossil fuels directly. Wikipedia claims, “Electric arc steelmaking is only economical where there is plentiful, reliable electricity, with a well-developed electrical grid.” An electric grid, powered only by intermittent electricity from wind turbines and solar panels, would not qualify.

    In Figure 8, electricity consumption as a percentage of total energy consumption for the US transportation sector rounds to 0%, for every year. Even the amount of biomass (ethanol and biodiesel) used by the transportation sector doesn’t have much of an impact, as shown in Figure 10.

    Figure 10. US transportation energy by type through 2023, based on data of the US EIA. Biomass includes ethanol and any biofuels made to substitute for diesel.

    A major issue is that transportation is a broad sector, including trucks, trains, planes, and boats, in addition to private passenger autos. Also, I expect that the only electricity that would be considered in the transportation energy calculation would be electricity purchased from an away-from-home charging facility. Electricity used when charging at home would likely be part of residential electricity consumption.

    [10] The narrative saying that we can transition to an electricity-only economy, powered by intermittent wind and solar electricity, has major holes in it.

    One major issue is that the pricing of wind and solar tends to drive out other electricity providers, particularly nuclear. Intermittent wind and solar are given “priority” when they are available. This leads to very low or negative prices for other electricity providers. Nuclear is particularly affected because it cannot ramp up and down, in response to prices that are far below its cost of production.

    Nuclear is a far more stable source of electricity than either wind or solar, and it is also a low-carbon source. As a result, economies end up worse off, in terms of electricity supply per capita, and in stability of available supply, when wind and solar are added.

    Figure 11. US per capita electricity generation based on data of the US Energy Information Administration. (Amounts are through 2023.)

    Figure 12. Electricity generation per capita for the European Union based on data of the 2023 Statistical Review of World Energy, prepared by the Energy Institute. Amounts are through 2022.

    Another issue is that wind turbines and solar panels are made with fossil fuels and repaired using fossil fuels. Without fossil fuels, we cannot maintain electricity transmission lines and roads. Thus, wind turbines and solar panels are as much a part of the fossil fuel system as hydroelectric electricity and electricity made from coal or natural gas.

    Also, as discussed above, only a small share of the economy is today operated using electricity. The IEA says that 20% of 2023 world energy supply comes from electricity. The amounts I calculated as “Overall” in Figure 8 indicate an electricity share of 18%, which is a bit less than the IEA is indicating for the world. Figure 8 shows an early upward trend in this ratio, but no upward trend since 2012. Fossil fuels are being used today because they have chemical characteristics that are needed or because they provide the energy services required in a less expensive manner than electricity.

    Even in the early days of the Industrial Revolution, wind and waterpower provided only a small portion of the total energy supply. Coal provided the heat energy that both industry and residences needed, inexpensively. Wind and waterpower were not well adapted to providing heat energy when needed.

    Figure 13. Annual energy consumption per head (megajoules) in England and Wales 1561-70 to 1850-9 and in Italy 1861-70. Figure by Wrigley, in Energy and the English Industrial Revolution.

    If we are short of inexpensive-to-extract fossil fuels, relative to today’s large population, we certainly could use some new inexpensive source of stable electricity supply. But this would not solve all our energy problems–we would still need a substantial amount of fossil fuel supplies to grow our food and keep our roads repaired. But if a new type of electricity production could reduce the demand for fossil fuels, it would make a larger quantity of fossil fuels available for other purposes.

    [11] Practically everyone would like a happily-ever-after ending, so it is easy for politicians, educators, and the news media to put together overly optimistic versions of the future.

    The narrative that CO2 is the world’s biggest enemy, so we need to move quickly away from fossil fuels, has received a great deal of publicity recently, but it is problematic from two different points of view:

    (a) The feasibility of moving away from fossil fuels without killing off a very major portion of the world’s population seems to be virtually zero. The world economy is a dissipative structure in physics terms. It needs energy of the right kinds to “dissipate,” just as humans are dissipative structures and need food to dissipate (digest). Humans cannot live on lettuce alone, or practically any other foodstuff by itself. We need a “portfolio” of foods, adapted to our bodies’ needs. The economy is similar. It cannot operate only on electricity, any more than humans can live only on high-priced icing for cakes.

    (b) The narrative about the importance of CO2 emissions with respect to climate change is quite possibly exaggerated. There are many other things that would seem to be at least as likely to cause short-term shifts in temperatures:

    • Lack of global dimming caused by less coal dust and reduced sulfur compounds in the atmosphere; in other words, reducing smog tends to raise temperatures.
    • Small changes in the Earth’s orbit
    • Changes in solar activity
    • Changes related to volcanic eruptions
    • Changes related to shifts in the magnetic north and south poles

    Politicians, educators, and the news media would all like a narrative that can explain the need for moving away from fossil fuels, rather than admit that “our easy to extract fossil fuel supply is running out.” The climate change narrative has been an easy approach to highlight, since clearly the climate is changing. It also provides the view that somehow we will be able to fix the problem if we take it seriously enough.

    [12] Today, we are in a period of conflict among nations, indirectly related to not having access to enough fossil fuels for a world population of 8 billion. There is also a significant chance of financial collapse.

    In my opinion, today’s world is a little like the “Roaring 20s” that came shortly before a major stock market crash in 1929 and the Great Depression of the 1930s. After the Great Depression, the world entered World War II. There is huge wage and wealth disparity; energy supplies per capita are stretched.

    Today, NATO and Russia are fighting a proxy war in Ukraine. Russia is a major fossil fuel producer; it would like to be paid more for the energy products it sells. Russia could perhaps get better prices by selling oil and other energy products to Asian customers instead of its current customer mix. At the same time, the US claims primary leadership (hegemony) in the world but, in fact, it needs to import many goods from overseas. It even needs supply lines from around the world for weapons being sent to Ukraine. The Ukraine conflict is not going well for the US.

    I do not know how this will work out. I am hoping that there will not be a World War III, in the same way that there was a World War II. All countries are terribly dependent on each other, even though there are not enough fossil fuels to go around. Perhaps countries will try to sabotage one another, using modern techniques, such as cyber warfare.

    I think that there is a substantial chance of a major financial collapse in the next few years. The level of debt is very high now. A major recession, with lots of collapsing debt, seems to be a strong possibility.

    [13] A presentation I recently gave to a group of actuaries that touches on several of these issues, plus others.

    My presentation can be found at this link: Beware: The Economy Is Beginning to Shrink

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/07/2024 – 21:25

  • South Korea Has Gold Bar Vending Machines…And They're Selling Out
    South Korea Has Gold Bar Vending Machines…And They’re Selling Out

    First, it was Costco selling (and selling out of) gold bars, as we reported last year. Now, you can buy them in vending machines in South Korea.

    One way or another, it looks as though the public wants gold. 

    Bloomberg reported this week that in Seoul’s upscale Gangnam district, a GS Retail Co. convenience store features a vending machine selling gold bars, ranging from less than 1 gram to 37.5 grams, with prices starting at around 88,000 won ($64) and fluctuating daily. Initially launched in 2022, these machines are now in 30 stores nationwide.

    South Koreans are joining the global investing trend, with many investing in fractional shares and physical gold, amid widespread interest in various asset types, from meme stocks to cryptocurrencies, the report noted.

    The one thing we see in common with the United States? People that want to exit from the fiat system. 

    A GS spokesperson told Bloomberg: “Currently we are seeing about 30 million won of sales per month. The gold vending machine draws customers’ attention due to increasing demand for safe haven assets and the spreading trend of micro-investing.”

    Park Sang-hyun, an economist at HI Investment & Securities in Seoul, added that investors have a “fear of missing out when everything rallies, and that partially contributed to the scene.”

    He added: “Feeling uncertainty about the global economy prompts safe haven demand.” 

    In South Korea, the convenience store CU, a competitor of GS, quickly sold out its ultralight gold cards, with the 1-gram options disappearing in just two days due to high demand from people in their 30s.

    As of May 31, CU had sold 95% of its 770 gold items, buoyed by prices falling below market rates, according to a statement from BGF Retail Co. The chain plans to introduce gold bars ranging from 2 to 10 grams, although no specific date has been given.

    Additionally, Kbank, an online bank with over 10 million users, began a service on May 9 allowing the purchase of gold bars from 1.875 grams to 37.5 grams with free delivery, as online banks also respond to rising gold demand.

    “With the price of gold recently topping $2,400 per ounce, investing in gold has become a popular way,” Kbank said in a statement. 

    About Costco, late last year, we wrote: “It’s an incredible commentary on the average American citizen. Americans are literally choosing to transact U.S. dollars for gold.”

    “Just because it’s happening on a website that says ‘Costco’ and the transaction is being consummated by housewives named Florence doesn’t change the fact that enough people thought converting U.S. dollars into hard assets was a high enough priority that these bars sold out,” we wrote.

    “These aren’t shoppers heading over to Kitco — these are people casually picking up some gold when they buy dog food and toilet paper. And if you think that’s crazy now, wait until we hit a period of volatility.”

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/07/2024 – 21:00

  • Is Fast Food Affordable Anymore? A Detailed Look At Menu Prices Over The Years
    Is Fast Food Affordable Anymore? A Detailed Look At Menu Prices Over The Years

    Authored by Josh Koebert via FinanceBuzz,

    Whether it’s for speed, convenience, or price, it’s no secret that Americans love fast food. Convenience aside, fast food has also been considered one of the most budget-friendly options to feed your family outside of cooking at home.

    However, fast foodies claim menu prices have skyrocketed in recent years, prompting backlash online and on social media.

    Have fast food prices really changed so dramatically? And if so, by how much? To find out, our team at FinanceBuzz collected pricing data for a dozen different chain restaurants over the last decade. We then calculated how much prices have risen in that timeframe and compared it to the overall inflation rate in the same period.

    Key findings

    • From 2014 to 2024, average menu prices have risen between 39% and 100% — all increases that outpace inflation during the given time period (31%).
    • McDonald’s menu prices have doubled (100% increase) since 2014 across popular items — the highest of any chain we analyzed.
    • Popeyes follows McDonald’s with an 86% increase, and Taco Bell is third at +81%.
    • Menu prices at Subway and Starbucks have risen by “just” 39% since 2014 — the lowest among chains we studied. These are also the only restaurants where prices have risen by less than 50%.

    How does fast food inflation compare to actual inflation?

    According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the cost of goods has risen 31% since 2014. This means that $100 in 2014 dollars is worth $131 in 2024 dollars. Much of this change has happened in the last 5 years — inflation is up 22% since 2019. So how do the average menu price increases at popular fast food chains compare to those rates?

    The restaurants we evaluated raised prices by 60% on average between 2014 and 2024. That means they’ve raised prices at a rate nearly double the national rate of inflation.

    Five different restaurants — McDonald’s, Popeyes, Taco Bell, Chipotle, and Jimmy John’s — raised their prices at more than double the actual inflation rate. McDonald’s raised prices so much that their average menu prices increased more than three times the national rate of inflation.

    Gold-tier prices at the Golden Arches: McDonald’s prices have risen the most

    The worst offender for dramatic price increases is McDonald’s — a chain that recently went viral for all the wrong reasons. An $18 Big Mac® combo garnered so much attention online that the McDonald’s CEO promised affordability on a recent earnings call. According to our data, prices at McDonald’s have doubled since 2014, with an average price increase of 100%.

    That rate is more than triple the actual inflation rate at that same time. One menu item that illustrates just how much things have changed is the McChicken® sandwich. This was a staple of the chain’s $1 menu in 2014, but it now costs $3 at some locations. That’s a massive price increase of nearly 200% in a single decade.

    Other former value menu items, like the McDouble® and a simple order of medium fries, were among the most egregious price increases across the McD’s menu.

    Other notable fast-flation examples

    Looking at the full data, we see that Popeyes, Taco Bell, and Chipotle have the second, third, and fourth-largest average price increases. All three have raised prices by at least 75% in the last 10 years. Subway and Starbucks, on the other hand, kept prices the most stable of the bunch.

    Though McDonald’s was the biggest inflation offender of the chains we looked at, we found some other interesting inflation trends across fast food menus.

    Taco Bell

    Similar to McDonald’s, Taco Bell has long had a reputation for being a cheap place to get a quick bite. But also like McDonald’s, that reputation has started to take a hit among fans due to a decade of outsized price increases.

    Some of Taco Bell’s most iconic menu items show how much costs have risen. A Doritos® Locos Taco has gone from an average price of $1.39 in 2014 to $2.59 in 2024 (+86%), while a Cheesy Gordita Crunch has doubled in price from $2.49 in 2014 to $4.99 today.

    Neither of these price increases is the largest we tracked at Taco Bell. That prize goes to the Beefy 5-Layer Burrito, which went from an average cost of $1.59 in 2014 to a present-day price of $3.69. That’s a 132% increase.

    Chipotle

    While Chipotle’s prices haven’t increased at quite the same rate as Taco Bell’s or McDonald’s, their costs have still risen by 75% on average in the last decade.

    In 2014, hungry customers could get an entree, such as a burrito, bowl, or tacos, for less than $6.75 on average. Those same meals all cost $10.50 or more today. And adding guac costs 64% more now than it did 10 years ago, going from $1.80 to $2.95 on average.

    Starbucks

    Starbucks is one of the best chains we evaluated in terms of keeping costs down. Menu prices have gone up by 39% on average from 2014 to 2024. That is only slightly higher than the actual inflation rate during that time (31%).

    Notably, some beloved Starbucks menu items have kept pace with inflation, such as their Chai Tea Latte (+30%) and their Mocha Frappuccino® (+32%). Even better for Starbucks fans and their wallets, costs for certain items such as a Caffè Latte (+22%) and Caramel Macchiato (+17%) have actually risen slower than inflation, which makes them a better deal now than they were a decade ago.

    Burger King

    One of McDonald’s’ primary competitors is Burger King, but BK has done a much better job of keeping costs down compared to McDonald’s. While prices at the Golden Arches have doubled on average since 2014, the average cost for Burger King menu items has risen by “just” 55% in that same time.

    For a table with full results – click here.

    Hear from our experts

    While our study gave good insight on fast food price inflation, we also had our own questions about what the future holds for affordable meal options. To find out, we asked a panel of experts to weigh in on three questions: 

    • Do you think fast-food menu prices will continue to outpace inflation rates, or is there a potential stopping point?

    • What are some factors that can contribute to the rising costs of what’s typically considered an affordable food option?

    • In addition to a considerable increase in menu prices, would you say there’s been a drop-off in fast-food value deals, coupons, and promotions?

    Shubhranshu Singh, Ph.D.

    Associate Professor of Marketing, Johns Hopkins Carey Business School

    Do you think fast-food menu prices will continue to outpace inflation rates, or is there a potential stopping point?

    Fast food menu prices are expected to outpace inflation in the near term. However, the rate of increase is expected to slow down going forward. It appears that, if food price inflation and wage inflation continue to decrease, we can expect fast food prices to follow the overall inflation rate by the end of year.

    What are some factors that can contribute to the rising costs of what’s typically considered an affordable food option?

    A number of factors have contributed to the rising costs of fast food. First, food prices are outpacing inflation. Wage rate is also rising faster than inflation. In other words, the cost of preparing and serving fast food is rising faster than the inflation rate. Second, due to increasing pressure to spend less, some consumers have also downgraded from full-service restaurants to fast food restaurants, thus increasing the overall demand for fast food. Third, because of the increasing need to take multiple jobs and less time to prepare or enjoy food, consumers’ preferences for fast food have become stickier, that is, they are willing to accept higher prices. To make matters worse for fast food restaurants, consumers are tipping less at low- and no-service restaurants. Fast food restaurants are responding by raising prices.

    In addition to a considerable increase in menu prices, would you say there’s been a drop-off in fast-food value deals, coupons, and promotions?

    Yes, there has been a decrease in the frequency and depth of deals, coupons, and promotions offered by fast food restaurants. My casual observation suggests many fast-food chains such as McDonalds, KFC, and Domino’s Pizza have cut online deals. When deals, coupons, and promotions are offered, they don’t appear to be as attractive as they used to be prior to the pandemic. It appears the low-price items and deals that are currently offered are mostly to mitigate the recent backlash related to skyrocketing fast-food prices and not so much to make fast food more affordable for an average consumer.

    Daniel Roccato, MBA, CPM

    Clinical Professor of Finance, University of San Diego – Knauss School of Business

    Do you think fast-food menu prices will continue to outpace inflation rates, or is there a potential stopping point?

    The worst is behind because consumers have reached a tipping point. Fast-food operators have increased prices faster than the overall rate of inflation and that is especially hard on their core consumers. We won’t see prices drop but we can expect a pause.

    What are some factors that can contribute to the rising costs of what’s typically considered an affordable food option?

    It’s all about labor. Commodity price increases have moderated but labor costs keep climbing. A tight labor market and higher minimum wage laws are a one-two punch for employers.

    Michael Bognanno, Ph.D.

    Chair and Professor of Economics, Temple University

    Do you think fast-food menu prices will continue to outpace inflation rates, or is there a potential stopping point?

    In the words of Yogi Berra – ‘It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.’ Yogi Berra’s wisdom aside, fast-food prices have been driven up by increasing costs for food, labor, and energy. Additionally, the labor costs for low-wage workers, like those employed in fast food, rose the fastest after the pandemic, outpacing inflation. This last trend is abating, and this will help to push the growth in fast-food prices towards the general rate of inflation. The rise in food prices is also slowing.

    What are some factors that can contribute to the rising costs of what’s typically considered an affordable food option?

    The fast-food industry is highly competitive, and prices rise as the result of two forces: higher demand or higher costs. In this case, it is due largely to higher costs. The competition for low-wage workers in the aftermath of the pandemic caused their wages to rise the fastest. This directly affects the cost of running a fast-food restaurant. At the same time, the war in Ukraine and other factors contributed to higher food costs. Energy prices, notably for the cost of electricity, rose more than 10% in 2022 and are still increasing at a rate that exceeds the rate of inflation. On top of these cost factors that have added to the challenges of the fast-food industry, the pandemic stimulus funds held by consumers are largely gone, and credit card delinquencies are rising as high interest rates squeeze the poor. Restaurants catering to low-income consumers are adversely being affected by this as well as higher costs.

    In addition to a considerable increase in menu prices, would you say there’s been a drop-off in fast-food value deals, coupons, and promotions?

    Industry data shows that restaurant deals have been on the rise. Restaurants help their profits by finding ways to appeal to price sensitive consumers without cutting prices for everyone. Coupons and promotions are a way to do this. They sort consumers according to their price sensitivity by providing lower prices only to those consumers who are willing to go to the effort of using a coupon or responding to a promotion. The tougher things get in the industry, the more the industry will fine-tune pricing tactics.

    Easy ways to save on your next fast-food order

    • Maximize your rewards when eating out. Get the best bang for your buck by using a credit card for dining out to help rack up rewards and offset food prices.
    • Set a budget. Cut back on unnecessary purchases and plan ahead with your fast-food expenses in order to keep more money in your pocket.
    • Look into a food delivery side hustle. Read up on this ultimate guide to Uber Eats to see how you can create your own hours and earn some extra cash on the side.

    Methodology

    FinanceBuzz collected prices for 10 menu items from each restaurant. Prices were collected for 2024, 2019, and 2014. Only items that were available to customers in every one of those years were included for each restaurant.

    Restaurant prices were sourced from ItsYummi.com, FastFoodMenuPrices.com, and MenuWithPrice.com. Current menu prices were cross-referenced with the official website of each restaurant when applicable. Historic pricing data was found via the same sources using the Internet Archive’s Wayback Machine.

    Inflation rates are based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ CPI Inflation Calculator. Inflation rates were collected in January 2024.

    As a final note, McDonald’s franchisees are given a high level of autonomy in setting menu prices for individual locations, which can make it difficult to accurately source historical data to compare to the present. As such, our team collected additional historical data points related to McDonald’s and applied certain adjustments to the final data to create a reasonable representation of national pricing trends over time for the chain.

    Update: In light of the popularity of this report, McDonald’s published an open letter regarding the data presented above. In response, FinanceBuzz issued this statement on May 31, 2024. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/07/2024 – 20:35

  • US Army's Failure-Prone Pier Connected To Gaza Beach Again After Breaking Apart
    US Army’s Failure-Prone Pier Connected To Gaza Beach Again After Breaking Apart

    The US military’s Central Command (CENTCOM) has announced its temporary pier for Gaza, which has been out of commission for a couple of weeks after it was broken apart by choppy Mediterranean seas, has been fully reestablished and is operational.

    “At approximately 2:15 pm (local Gaza time) on June 7, US Central Command (CENTCOM) successfully reestablished the temporary pier in Gaza, enabling the continued delivery of much-needed humanitarian aid to the people of Gaza,” CENTCOM said in a statement posted to X. Watch the pier make landing on the beach again: 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    “In coming days, CENTCOM will facilitate the movement of vital food and other emergency supplies, in support of the US Agency for International Development,” the statement continued.

    The Washington Post on Thursday revealed that the cost of repairs for the pier after sections of it broke off and washed ashore in southern Israel stands at $22 million.

    Initially the total cost of Biden’s controversial humanitarian pier project stood at $320 million. From the start it has received bad press both in the US and internationally, a trend which has only continued given the project’s persistent problems. The controversy chiefly lies in that Israel is simultaneously blocking easier to use land routes for aid into Gaza.

    But American taxpayers have also questioned the need for the pier, at a time it continues to prove ineffective in the high winds and waves of the eastern Mediterranean.

    Meanwhile, Pentagon has still sought to provide ‘assurances’: 

    The Pentagon said this week that the project’s overall cost has been downgraded, from an initial estimate of $320 million to about $230 million now. Sabrina Singh, a spokeswoman, told reporters Wednesday that the savings were realized through lower-than-expected expenses for contracted vehicles and drivers, and Britain’s contribution of a military vessel to house the U.S. troops involved in the operation.

    This price downgrade is unlikely to be of much comfort to the American taxpayer. Below is a brief review of all the setbacks of late:

    Despite only being operational for a short time, the pier has already faced a number of setbacks. Last week, deliveries had to be stopped for two days after crowds rushed to aid trucks coming off the pier, leading to one Palestinian man being shot dead.

    Following the incident, the US military said it was charting a safer route to deliver aid. US Central Command also said last week that four army vessels had broken free from the pier, with two arriving in Gaza and the other two washing up on the coast.

    According to a UN World Food Programme spokesperson, since the pier was set up, the UN has transported 137 trucks of aid, the equivalent of 900 metric tonnes.

    Via Reuters

    There also remains the obvious dark irony and contradiction of the US supplying the very bombs still being used on Gaza amid a massive military campaign that’s driving the humanitarian crisis, while simultaneously trying to ‘solve’ or alleviate the catastrophe through an ambitious project already plagued by failure.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/07/2024 – 20:10

  • Term "Gynecologist" Offensive, According To Scholars
    Term “Gynecologist” Offensive, According To Scholars

    By Matt Lamb of The College Fix

    Midwives should avoid saying “gynecologist” in order to be more “inclusive,” according to a recent academic paper.

    Not because it sounds like “guy,” but because the word comes from the Greek for woman. Instead, say “reproductive health specialist.”

    The same scholars also say men can give birth.

    Other problematic words include “breastfeeding” and “breastmilk.”

    Instead, midwives should say “human milk feeding,” “human milk provision,” and “milk from the feeding parent.”

    The new language guide comes from Sally Pezaro (pictured), a professor and midwife who works at Coventry University in the United Kingdom.

    Twelve other authors, including a “queer doula,” contributed to the paper titled, “Gender inclusive language in midwifery and perinatal services: A guide and argument for justice.”

    It is all about moving away from “sexed language,” meaning accurate words that describe the fact that every single person to ever give birth in the history of the world was a woman. For example, the guide says not to use “women,” but instead “service users,” as if they are clients downloading software onto their computers.

    The authors begin their paper by making a confusing claim.

    They write:

    The notion of childbearing having a necessary or logical belonging within the nuclear two-parent family initiated by heterosexual couples whose gender has a normative relationship with their sex assigned at birth is a recent development in our human history, and one still inconsistently observed around the globe. Indeed, community and extended family are often as, if not more important.

    Pezaro did not respond to an email on Wednesday that asked for clarification on what she meant. The authors cited an entire book as their source.

    The paper contradicts itself in several places.

    For one, the authors believe men can give birth.

    But their “inclusive” language guide says to avoid saying “men/fathers/dads,” and instead say “non-gestational parents.” But if men can give birth, then it is offensive to assume they are the “non-gestational” parent, according to the authors’ logic. It makes sense if you don’t think about it.

    And what about the term “midwife”? (Credit Micaiah Bilger for that joke).

    Much of the paper reads like a typical gender studies essay.

    Here is one section explaining why “sexed language,” (i.e. biologically accurate words) should not be used:

    Gender non-conforming individuals are substituted for the true threat—the patriarchal structures that oppress multiple marginalized groups. This oppression becomes clear as we demonstrate the role of colonialism in the next section. We also foreground decolonial, intersectional feminism, and reproductive justice, which are key to the implementation of professional policy and practice in meeting the ethical imperative for gender-inclusive language in perinatal care.

    Using “inclusive” language is also how midwives can fight “colonialism,” according to the paper, written by British authors, attempting to impose their standards on everyone else.

    “If midwifery is indeed a feminist profession, it, therefore, follows that it should reject any re-affirmation of a European patriarchal sex binary rooted in colonialism, and fight for reproductive justice to the benefit of all who birth, the majority of whom are cisgender women,” the authors write.

    There is a sliver of truth, finally.

    Not only are a “majority” of people who give birth women, but they are all, in fact, women. If this is what midwives are about, parents would be wise to choose a gynecologist/reproductive health specialist instead.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/07/2024 – 19:45

  • Biden Claims He Knew Putin As A Young KGB Agent
    Biden Claims He Knew Putin As A Young KGB Agent

    In the mid-1980s Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin was an unknown but up-and-coming KGB officer in his early 30s, and a then 42-year old Joe Biden was a US Senator from Delaware. 

    It was still the Cold War, and there was very little contact between Western officials and representatives of the Soviet Union, given this was still the era of an ‘Iron Curtain’ separating Europe. With all of this in mind, watch what now 81-year old President Biden claimed in an ABC interview from France this week:

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    “I have known him for over 40 years,” Biden asserted in the interview. “He has concerned me for 40 years. He is not a decent man. He is a dictator.”

    Given the obvious impossibility of this bizarre claim, the Kremlin on Friday reacted by saying “It is often difficult to fathom what US President Joe Biden means with his statements,” according to state media.

    Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated in a mocking tone, “sometimes one can only wonder what the US president means, including when he speaks about [knowing Putin for] 40 years.”

    The press pool in Moscow reportedly laughed out loud when Peskov followed by observing that apparently the US President “rolled back time to understand what Putin was doing 40 years ago. One can make very deep analytical conclusions about how Biden could have become acquainted with him [at that time].”

    And on the “dictator” remark, Peskov said that Putin “does not react and will not react” to insults such as what Biden just conveyed, and Peskov further expressed surprise that such “rhetoric and such expressions are employed regarding a head of state.”

    Young Putin as a KGB officer in 1980…

    Source: Wiki Commons

    In reaction to Biden’s confused claim, one commenter, Larry Boorstein, pointed out further that “Vladimir Putin graduated from the Law Department of Leningrad State University in 1975. He joined the KGB that year and was assigned to Eastern Germany in 1985. Biden graduated Syracuse Law in 1968. It’s unlikely their paths crossed 40 years ago.”

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/07/2024 – 19:20

  • Is The Electric Vehicle Panacea Crashing In California And America?
    Is The Electric Vehicle Panacea Crashing In California And America?

    Authored by John Seiler via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A station for charging electric vehicles in Irvine, Calif., on March 25, 2022. (John Fredricks/The Epoch Times)

    Commentary

    The idea that the panacea of electric vehicles will end “climate change” may have finally crashed into the wall of reality.

    Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg was interviewed on May 26 by host Margaret Brennan on “Face the Nation.” The full interview is on YouTube. Ms. Brennan is the most informative and objective of interviewers in the mainstream media.

    Although “Mayor Pete,” as he came to be known, was merely the mayor of South Bend, Indiana, population 103,000, in 2020, he won the Iowa caucuses, briefly gaining national attention. He previously worked at McKinsey & Co., which hires really smart people to consult for corporate clients. According to Mr. Buttigieg, his work “consisted of doing mathematical analysis, conducting research, and preparing presentations” on studies for clients. That means he’s one of the smarter people in the Biden administration.

    At 9 minutes and 30 seconds, Ms. Brennan said, “Donald Trump repeatedly talks about President Biden’s decision to force the industry toward making 56 percent of car batteries electric by 2032, 13 percent hybrid.” She then played a video of President Trump at a rally in New Jersey.

    “We’re spending hundreds of billions of dollars subsidizing a car that nobody wants and nobody’s ever going to buy,” President Trump said.

    Then she continued, “He’s not wrong—”

    “Oh, he’s wrong,” Mr. Buttigieg interrupted.

    Ms. Brennan continued, “—on the purchasing. He’s not. Of the 4 million vehicles purchased, you know, what, 269,000 electric vehicles were sold in the U.S. market.”

    And the electric portion is just 6.7 percent of the total. She didn’t mention the time period, but Cox Automotive ran the numbers, and it’s the first quarter of 2024.

    Mr. Buttigieg responded: “Every single year, more Americans buy EVs than the year prior. There are two things that I think are needed for that to happen even more quickly. One is the price. Which is why the Inflation Reduction Act acted to cut the price of an electric vehicle. The second is making sure we have the charging network we need across America, even though most EV owners will do most of their charging at home. If you live in an apartment building or you’re driving long distances, you need other options in those chargers. So that’s exactly what we’re working on.”

    A Gramscian Childhood

    He then mentioned he grew up “in the industrial Midwest, literally in the shadow of broken-down factories from car companies that did not survive.” He didn’t mention his father was not a laid-off auto worker. Instead, young Pete grew up the privileged son of a left-wing, Marxist professor at the University of Notre Dame in South Bend.

    The late Joseph Buttigieg is described by Wikipedia as the “translator and editor of the three-volume English edition of Marxist philosopher Antonio Gramsci’s Prison Notebooks, published from 1992 to 2007 with support from the National Endowment for the Humanities.” Your tax dollars at work.

    “He was a founding member and president of the International Gramsci Society, founded to facilitate communication between those who study Italian philosopher and politician Antonio Gramsci, one-time leader of the Communist Party of Italy,” the Wikipedia entry reads.

    Gramsci is considered the father of what’s now called Cultural Marxism. Seeing economic Marxism wasn’t working in the Soviet Union, and wasn’t attractive to the workers in Western Europe and the United States, he posited Marxism first had to conduct a “long march through the institutions” to prepare the people for full-blown Marxism. That’s the theory that gave us diversity, equity, and inclusion; environmental, social, and corporate governance; corporate social responsibility; “wokeness”; and political correctness in general.

    Communist China’s EV Challenge

    “The EV revolution will happen with or without us, and we have to make sure that it’s American-led,” Mr. Buttigieg continued. “Under the Trump administration, they allowed China to build an advantage in the EV industry. But, under President Biden’s leadership, we’re making sure that the EV revolution will be a made-in-America EV revolution.”

    Mr. Buttigieg criticized President Trump for emphasizing gas-powered cars on the campaign trail. Ms. Brennan pointed out: “It’s resonating for him. Because he wouldn’t bring it up so frequently if there wasn’t some anxiety that he’s tapping into.”

    She then switched to a new topic: “The Federal Highway Administration says only seven or eight charging stations have been produced with the $7.5 billion investment that taxpayers made back in 2021. Why isn’t that happening more quickly?”

    Mr. Buttigieg replied: “The president’s goal is to have half a million chargers up by the end of this decade. Now, in order to do a charger, it’s more than just plunking a small device into the ground. There’s utility work, and this is also really a new category of federal investment. But we’ve been working with each of the 50 states. Every one of them is getting formula dollars to do this work.”

    Ms. Brennan insisted, incredulous, “Seven or eight, though?”

    Then—here’s the breaking point for the EV panacea—she started laughing as he repeated: “Again, by 2030, 500,000 chargers. And the very first handful of chargers are now being physically built. That’s the absolute, very, very beginning stages of the construction to come.”

    Ms. Brennan then brought up how long-distance travel isn’t possible without a large network of chargers. Mr. Buttigieg said the private sector already has chargers but the federal program is to “fill in some of the gaps.”

    Pew Research Study of EV Stations

    For perspective, a May 23 Pew Research Center study found: “As of Feb. 27, 2024, there are more than 61,000 publicly accessible electric vehicle charging stations with Level 2 or DC Fast chargers in the U.S. That is a more than twofold increase from roughly 29,000 stations in 2020. For reference, there are an estimated 145,000 gasoline fueling stations in the country.

    “EV charging stations can be found in two-thirds of all U.S. counties, which collectively include 95 [percent] of the country’s population. …

    “As has been the case in the past, California has the most EV charging infrastructure of any state. … Californians with an EV might also have a harder time than residents of many states when it comes to the actual experience of finding and using a charger. Despite having the most charging stations of any state, California’s 43,780 individual public charging ports must provide service for the more than 1.2 million electric vehicles registered to its residents. That works out to one public port for every 29 EVs, a ratio that ranks California 49th across all 50 states and the District of Columbia.”

    So California, the center of EV popularity, isn’t doing well in providing adequate chargers. Here’s Pew’s map of EV charging stations:

    (Pew Research Center/Screenshot via The Epoch Times)

    Mr. Buttigieg said charging your car is much like charging your phone. However, with my car, unlike an EV, I can fill up a couple of jerry cans with gasoline and throw them in my trunk or truck bed, extending the vehicle’s range by hundreds of miles. It’s not recommended because that can be dangerous. But it can be done.

    Mr. Buttigieg then brought up how EV prices are dropping and now are close to those of gas-powered cars. Ms. Brennan, who always comes to her interviews well-briefed, then brought up President Biden’s recent 100 percent tariffs on EVs from communist China.

    Mr. Buttigieg responded, “Part of what we see is China pouring huge resources into uncompetitive means, or I should say ‘unfair’ means, of competition; President Biden’s not going to allow that to happen to the American auto industry.”

    Mr. Brennan then mentioned how Colorado Gov. Jared Polis called the tariffs “horrible news for American consumers, a major setback for clean energy,” and he said that “this tax increase will hit every family.”

    The interview then moved on to drunk driving and traffic safety.

    Beginning of the End for 100 Percent EV Mandates

    Mr. Buttigieg immediately was lambasted across social media platforms and in news stories:

    • Newsweek: “Pete Buttigieg Ridiculed for Joe Biden’s $7.5 Billion ‘Massive Failure.’”
    • Real Clear Politics: “CBS’s Brennan To Buttigieg: How Is It Possible That $7.5 Billion Investment Has Only Produced ‘7 Or 8’ EV Charging Stations So Far?”
    • Fox News: “CBS anchor tells Buttigieg that Trump is ‘not wrong’ about Biden administration struggling to implement electric vehicle agenda.”

    I have a good antenna for political trends. After this interview, with Ms. Brennan’s laugh at Mr. Buttigieg’s numbers repeated many times across the internet, it’s going to be hard for the EV-pushers to get their message across.

    Next to crash into the wall of reality: California’s mandate for 100 percent zero-emission vehicle sales by 2035.

    Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/07/2024 – 18:55

  • Mistrial? Trump 'Hush Money' Judge Suggests Juror May Have Had Predetermined Guilty Verdict
    Mistrial? Trump ‘Hush Money’ Judge Suggests Juror May Have Had Predetermined Guilty Verdict

    The judge in the Trump ‘hush money’ case, Juan Merchan,  just issued a very strange note to both parties indicating that a comment made on the court’s Facebook page suggests that one of the jurors may have arrived at a ‘guilty’ verdict before the end of the trial, and told a family member.

    “My cousin is a juror and says Trump is getting convicted. Thank you folks for all your hard work!!!” reads the Facebook post highlighted by Merchan.

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    As the Conservative Treehouse speculates…

    Why would Judge Merchan want to draw public attention to this?

    Either something bigger is being diluted by this story, or perhaps Merchan is using it as a provocation to get Trump to talk about the jury and violate his gag order ahead of sentencing.

    Or, perhaps Merchan is looking to create a mistrial to exit the case, or do it over again and extend the gag order.   Also, why not include the entire quote from the Facebook Page:

    Not sure what’s going on, but something.  Something….

    .

    .

    Suspicious Cat remains, well, suspicious.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsNeedless to say, ‘mistrial‘ is trending on X right now.

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    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/07/2024 – 18:28

  • Internet Addiction In Adolescents Can Negatively Affect Brain Function: Study
    Internet Addiction In Adolescents Can Negatively Affect Brain Function: Study

    Authored by Evgenia Filimianova via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    In this photo illustration, a teenager looks at the screen of a mobile phone in London on Jan. 17, 2023. (Leon Neal/Getty Images)

    Internet addiction (IA) in adolescents can affect neural networks in the brain and lead to behavioural and developmental changes, researchers have found.

    A study by University College London (UCL) examined data from 12 studies, conducted in China, Korea, and Indonesia. The papers analysed more than 200 young people, aged 10 to 19, who had been diagnosed with IA.

    UCL researchers found that youngsters with IA can present behavioural changes linked to physical coordination, intellectual ability, and mental health.

    The study defines IA as an inability to resist the urge to use the internet. It has a negative impact on individual’s psychological well-being, as well as their social, academic, and professional lives.

    “In severe circumstances, people may experience severe pain in their bodies or health issues like carpal tunnel syndrome, dry eyes, irregular eating and disrupted sleep,” the study said.

    Researchers looked at IA effects on the neural networks in the brains of adolescents. Participants with IA had their functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) taken while resting and completing a task.

    When they were involved in active thinking, an overall decrease in the functional connectivity in their brain was recorded. When resting, researchers saw a mixture of increased and decreased activity in parts of the youngsters’ brains.

    “Given the influx of technology and media in the lives and education of children and adolescents, an increase in prevalence and focus on internet related behavioural changes is imperative towards future children/adolescent mental health,” the authors of the study wrote in the journal PLOS Mental Health.

    Handling Internet Addiction

    Researchers said that parents who recognise the early signs and onset of IA can better handle their children’s screen time and impulsivity. This can help minimise the risk factors surrounding the addiction.

    “Adolescence is a crucial developmental stage during which people go through significant changes in their biology, cognition and personalities. As a result, the brain is particularly vulnerable to internet addiction-related urges during this time, such as compulsive internet usage, cravings towards usage of the mouse or keyboard and consuming media,” said lead author Max Chang.

    Mr. Chang added that as a result, adolescents can suffer from negative behavioural and developmental changes.

    “For example, they may struggle to maintain relationships and social activities, lie about online activity and experience irregular eating and disrupted sleep,” he said.

    Senior author Irene Lee acknowledged the advantages of the internet, but cautioned about the possible negative effects on people’s day-to-day lives.

    “We would advise that young people enforce sensible time limits for their daily internet usage and ensure that they are aware of the psychological and social implications of spending too much time online,” said Ms. Lee.

    Widespread Issue

    The UK Addiction Treatment Centres (UKAT) found that young people tend to be at a higher risk of falling victim to IA. Among 18–24-year-olds, 78 percent will check their phones whilst dining out, 81 percent will do so at work, and 92 percent will do so while in bed.

    “Compulsive internet use changes the way that the brain functions, making the user feel that getting online is far more pleasurable than any other activity. This pleasure of the internet comes as a direct result of the reward,” said UKAT.

    Users get a jolt of dopamine every time they receive a message or hear the sound of a new notification. This sends the user’s pleasure centres into overdrive and is “difficult to shake,” UKAT explained.

    According to communications regulator Ofcom, 93 percent of people in the UK had home internet access in 2022. The most commonly used sites by teenagers were YouTube (90 percent), Instagram (70 percent), TikTok (66 percent), and Snapchat (58 percent).

    Further studies of the effects of IA on functional connectivity changes in adolescents are necessary to better understand the issue, UCL authors said. They called on future studies to test with larger sample sizes and populations outside Far East Asia.

    PA Media contributed to this report.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/07/2024 – 18:05

  • Venture Capitalist David Sacks Goes All In On Trump 
    Venture Capitalist David Sacks Goes All In On Trump 

    A new wave of enthusiasm is emerging for former President Trump among VCs and business leaders across America. While some (or much) of this may be simply reading tea leaves and staying nimble, it’s worth noting that many former Democrat defenders are now on team Trump.

    It doesn’t take a crystal ball to see how disastrous economic policies (Bidenomics), failed foreign policies (Ukraine), a chaotic southern border, lawless cities, and the weaponization of the judicial system against political opponents are all contributing to sliding support for the left. And of course, Silicon Valley’s political elites just want stability and prosperity – not this uncertainty and inflation delivered under Biden. 

    To that end, famed investor David Sacks, who previously gave $33,400 to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign and, more recently, backed Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Ron DeSantis, joined the growing list of notable money managers who have gone ‘all-in’ by endorsing President Trump. 

    According to Bloomberg, Sacks will host a $300,000-a-head fundraiser for the former president at his home in San Francisco’s Pacific Heights neighborhood. 

    “I’ve been very critical of Biden’s performance over the last four years, and I would like for him not to win another term,” Sacks said in an interview, adding, “I’ve been looking at all the alternatives and getting to know the alternatives.”

    On Thursday night, Sacks took to X, outlining why he’s supporting Trump in the upcoming presidential elections in November.

    “I am giving my endorsement to our 45th President, Donald J. Trump, to be our 47th president. My reasons rest on four main issues that I think are vital to American prosperity, security, and stability – issues where the Biden administration has veered badly off course and where I believe President Trump can lead us back,” Sacks wrote on X. 

    Here’s the rest of Sacks’ explanation for why he is now backing Trump:

    Why I’m Backing President Trump

    As many press accounts have reported, I’m hosting a fundraising event for President Donald J. Trump at my home in San Francisco this evening.

    Over the last couple of years, I have hosted events for presidential candidates Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., as well as several Congressional figures in both major parties. I give to many, but endorse few.

    But today I am giving my endorsement to our 45th President, Donald J. Trump, to be our 47th president. My reasons rest on four main issues that I think are vital to American prosperity, security, and stability – issues where the Biden administration has veered badly off course and where I believe President Trump can lead us back.

    1. The Economy

    President Biden took over an economy that was already recovering strongly from the Covid-induced shock of Q2 2020. Demand had roared back, and employment had recovered. But he chose to keep priming the pump with unnecessary Covid stimulus – almost $2 trillion of it, passed on a straight party-line vote in March of 2021, with trillions more to follow for “infrastructure,” green energy, and “inflation reduction.”

    Biden did this despite early warnings from former Clinton Treasury Secretary Larry Summers that it could lead to inflation. When the inflation came, the Biden administration dismissed it as “transitory.” In fact, inflation still remains persistently high even after the fastest interest-rate tightening cycle in memory.

    As a result of Biden’s inflation, average Americans have lost roughly a fifth of their purchasing power over the last few years. Moreover, any American who needs a mortgage, car loan, or credit card debt faces much higher interest costs, which further constrain their purchasing power.

    It’s no different for our federal government, which now must devote over a trillion dollars annually to interest on its $34 trillion debt, a massive sum that’s been growing by a trillion dollars every hundred days. This trajectory is unsustainable, yet Biden’s 2025 budget calls for even higher spending.

    Growth has already slowed from 3.4 percent in the last quarter of 2023 to an anemic 1.3 percent in the first quarter of this year. We can’t afford another four years of Bidenomics.

    2. Foreign Policy / Ukraine War

    President Trump left office with ISIS defeated, the Abraham Accords signed, and no new wars raging on the global stage. Three and a half years later, the world is on fire. President Biden has made several strategic choices that have contributed to this situation.

    In his first year in office, Biden unnecessarily alienated the Saudis before realizing that they are an indispensable partner in the Middle East. He also presided over a chaotic withdrawal of our troops from Afghanistan (right policy, abysmal execution).

    But his biggest blunder by far has been in Ukraine. His administration immediately began pushing for Ukraine’s admission to NATO, despite no unanimity among the existing NATO members that such a move was a good idea. When this predictably antagonized the Russians, the Biden administration doubled down at every turn, insisting that “NATO’s door is open, and will remain open” with respect to Ukraine. Biden himself baited Russia when he said he didn’t “accept anybody’s red lines.”

    After the invasion, there was still a chance to stop the war in its early weeks before much loss of life and destruction had occurred. Russian and Ukrainian negotiators had signed a draft agreement in Istanbul that would have seen Russia retreat to its pre-invasion borders in exchange for Ukrainian neutrality. But the Biden administration rejected that deal as well as General Milley’s advice to seek a diplomatic solution in November 2022.

    As the war of attrition grinds on, the Ukrainians face ever-mounting casualties and infrastructure damage. Still, President Biden keeps allowing the conflict to escalate and risk World War III. Every escalation that Biden initially resisted – Abrams tanks, F-16’s, ATACMs, allowing Ukraine to hit targets in Russia – he has eventually acquiesced to. There is just one more escalation to go: NATO troops on the ground fighting Russia directly. And our European allies like Emmanuel Macron are already spoiling for exactly this scenario.

    With Biden, our choices are limited to fighting the proxy war to the last Ukrainian, or fighting Russia ourselves. President Trump has said he wants the dying in Ukraine to stop, and that he will seek to end the war through a negotiated settlement. Ukraine will no longer be able to get the deal we talked them out of in April 2022, but we can still save Ukraine as an independent nation and avert world war.

    3. The Border

    As an immigrant to the United States myself, I certainly believe in America’s history of strengthening its ranks by welcoming talented people from other nations seeking freedom and opportunity. But that promise requires an orderly process of legal immigration that emphasizes skills and the principles of American citizenship. This was the preferred policy under President Trump.

    What Biden ushered in was a de facto open border policy. On his first day in office, he repealed President Trump’s executive orders restricting illegal immigration and stopped construction of a border wall, selling off parts of it for scrap metal. This quickly resulted in a massive spike in illegal border crossings and a chaotic and dangerous situation on our southern border.

    President Biden (along with the hapless Kamala Harris and the malevolent Homeland Security Chief Alejandro Mayorkas) responded to growing concerns by gaslighting the American public, saying there was no problem at the border despite constant videos of masses of people sprinting across it.

    When the situation became too dire to ignore or deny, Biden claimed he didn’t have the executive authority to do anything about it and blamed Republicans for not sending him legislation. But this week, facing abysmal polling numbers on this issue, Biden suddenly discovered he has executive authority after all. The order he signed is a tepid, too little-too late effort to slow the tidal wave of illegal immigration in time for the election. But Biden has shown he is not serious on this issue. If he wins a second term, the open border policy will resume, and tens of millions more illegals will stream across the border.

    4. Lawfare

    A bedrock of the political stability we’ve enjoyed in America over the last 250 years is that we don’t accept attempts to jail political opponents in order to win an election. Yet Biden has pushed for selective and unprecedented prosecutions of his once and future opponent from the moment he assumed office.

    Merrick Garland took a long look at the January 6 situation and didn’t see a path to prosecute Trump, even after a one-sided Congressional committee sent a highly-prejudiced referral to his Justice Department. Press stories then appeared describing Biden’s frustration with Garland’s reticence. The result was Jack Smith at the federal level and Alvin Bragg and Fani Willis at the state level. All have pursued cases based on novel legal theories heretofore unseen and designed to get Trump. In the NY case, Bragg resurrected a dead book-keeping misdemeanor into 34 felonies by claiming it was in the service of a second crime that he never defined and that the judge never insisted the jury unanimously agree on.

    My immigration to this country as a young boy happened because my parents disagreed with the political system of their home country. That government sought to solve its political disagreements by imprisoning its political enemies. What a sad irony that the lawfare we escaped has now reared its ugly head in America of all places.

    President Biden keeps insisting that a return of President Trump to the White House threatens democracy. But his administration is the one that has colluded with tech platforms to censor the Internet, used the intelligence community to cover up his son Hunter’s laptop, and pursued elective prosecutions against his political opponents.

    Conclusion: The A/B Test

    The voters have experienced four years of President Trump and four years of President Biden. In tech, we call this an A/B test. With respect to economic policy, foreign policy, border policy, and legal fairness, Trump performed better. He is the president who deserves a second term.

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    The common thread among these investor elites in their support of Trump is a desire for peace and stability to return, as they’re fed up with Biden’s chaos – with Sacks’ support for Trump coming days after Sequoia founder Shaun Maguire wrote on X, “I Just Donated $300k To Trump.”

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    Meanwhile, hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman’s support of Trump appears to have strengthened in recent weeks, agreeing with Sacks for what he suggested was an “important read.”

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    Also, Elon Musk.

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    Last month, Blackstone CEO Steve Schwarzman expressed his support Trump:

    “I share the concern of most Americans that our economic, immigration and foreign policies are taking the country in the wrong direction. For these reasons, I am planning to vote for change and support Donald Trump for President. In addition, I will be supporting Republican Senate candidates and other Republicans up and down the ticket.”

    In short, Silicon Valley investors and Wall Streeters are no longer hiding in their mansions—afraid of commenting on or backing Trump—mainly because the era of canceling is winding down.

    We suspect more notable investors will pledge their support for Trump ahead of the elections as the nation peacefully revolts against the current regime in the White House. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/07/2024 – 17:40

  • Roaring Kitty Ends Bizarre Livestream As GameStop Crashes
    Roaring Kitty Ends Bizarre Livestream As GameStop Crashes

    Watch Roaring Kitty Live: 

    *   *   * 

    Update (1259ET):

    To sum up the bizarre broadcast: Roaring Kitty is betting on GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen’s turnaround with options that expire in two weeks.

    … actually agree with Ross Gerber for once.

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    Update (1259ET):

    Roaring Kitty reveals positions.

    Oof.

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    Update (1251ET):

    Here’s a great take.

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    And that is a very good question. 

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    Update (1241ET):

    Roaring Kitty stated that he is actively managing his accounts and is not working with hedge funds. He clarified that he is not an institutional investor and that all trades are his own.

    Dave chimes in…

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    Shares are LOD-ing. 

    And this. 

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    Update (1233ET):

    No inspiring GME investment thesis has so far been given minutes into the broadcast. 

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    Update (1229ET):

    He’s live.

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    Update (1225ET):

    GME hits the low of the day after Roaring Kitty is 25 minutes late to his own party. 

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    Update (1215ET):

    Roaring Kitty is 15 minutes late to his own party. 

    The Internet is asking questions…

    LoL…

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    A lot of interest on Google searches. 

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    Update (1205ET):

    Still waiting on Roaring Kitty to speak at 1205 ET. There’s nearly half a million people tuning in. 

    LoL…

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    Update (1157ET):

    Roaring Kitty will have some serious explaining regarding his investment thesis in GameStop during the 1200 ET live-streaming event on YouTube. 

    ‘Meme’ stock trader Keith Gill’s (aka Roaring Kitty) latest pump was situated around GME CEO Ryan Cohen announcing another at-market equity offering (impeccable timing) – set to dump tens of millions of shares on Reddit momentum traders. Also, first-quarter earnings were messy, with sharp revenue declines in the first quarter. 

    Again, what’s the thesis here? 

    Meanwhile, GME shares have nearly been halved from the premarket highs following GME’s at-market equity offering announcement and dismal earnings report. 

    Ahead of the live-streaming event, over 200,000 people are tuning in to hear Roaring Kitty speak. 

    *   *   * 

    Redditors and momentum chasers are being led into a burning building by ‘meme’ stock trader Keith Gill’s (aka Roaring Kitty) on the latest pump as GameStop shares erase overnight gains following the announcement of sharp revenue declines in the first quarter and an “at-the-market offering” program to sell more shares.

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    Let’s begin by describing the source of the latest pump. Roaring Kitty’s YouTube live event, slated for 1200ET, was announced on Thursday afternoon, which sent shares doubling from around $26 in cash session to as high as $66 in after-hours trading.

    In premarket trading, shares were above the $60 handle, then crashed 40% to around $38 following the news that GME filed an at-the-market offering to sell 75 million shares of the company’s Class A common stock. 

    Jefferies is the ‘Sales Agent’ on the deal.

    Earlier, GME reported first-quarter results showing net sales of 881.80 million, down from $1.237 billion year over year. Net sales missed Wall Street’s consensus estimate of $995.30 million. 

    GME also reported an EPS loss of 12 cents, missing the average estimate of 9 cents. According to Reuters, this miss highlights customers’ shift to online video games and collectibles, while the retailer continued to rely on its brick-and-mortar stores. 

    Just weeks ago, during another pump by Gill, GME announced it sold 45 million shares of common stock for about $933.4 million. CEO Ryan Cohen is effectively using Gill’s pumps to dump millions of shares into mom-and-pop retail, chasing momentum. 

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    At 1200 ET, Gill will have to re-explain his investment thesis in GME, as first-quarter earnings show a sharp decline, and Cohen is dumping endless shares. 

    Meanwhile, reports suggest that ETrade might take action against Gill, and at least one securities regulator is currently investigating him for potential stock manipulation.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/07/2024 – 17:16

  • Obese Woman Wins Miss Alabama And People Have Questions
    Obese Woman Wins Miss Alabama And People Have Questions

    Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via modernity.news,

    An obese woman has won Miss Alabama, with the organizers of the contest insisting that the intention of the beauty pageant was to “foster a positive self-image.”

    Yes, really.

    After Sara Milliken learned that she had won the competition and would go on to represent her state at the national level, she hit back at critics who questioned her weight.

    “Even something that you type over a screen can have a lasting impression on people,” she told WKRG.

    According to a report by the news network, “The purpose of the national American Miss program is to grow confidence and foster a positive self-image.”

    This despite the fact that the level of obesity displayed by Milliken is linked with all manner of horrible diseases like diabetes, heart disease, strokes, and certain cancers.

    Respondents weren’t very impressed with the result.

    “Dang I didn’t realize this was a cattle auction,” wrote one.

    “This 500 pound woman is supposed to be a role model to kids,” added another.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Some expressed gratitude for the fact that at least Milliken is a biological female, unlike the winner of Miss Maryland USA, who is a man.

    “She practiced 365 days? What? Eating?” remarked another.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    As we previously highlighted, the winner of this year’s Miss Germany wasn’t even German.

    Any guidelines or rules have been completely obliterated as such contests are completely turned over to woke extremists who use them as a vehicle to amplify the message.

    That message is incredibly harmful for young women, especially when you consider the fact that numerous ‘fat pride’ activists have literally died from being overweight in recent years.

    Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/07/2024 – 17:15

  • US Domestic Bank Deposits Tumble As Money-Market Fund Assets Near Record-High Again
    US Domestic Bank Deposits Tumble As Money-Market Fund Assets Near Record-High Again

    Money-market inflows continued for the seventh straight week getting close to $6.1 trillion…

    Source: Bloomberg

    As total seasonally-adjusted US bank deposits fell $41.5 BN…

    Source: Bloomberg

    While on a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, total US ban deposits rose $89BN…?

    Source: Bloomberg

    Excluding foreign deposits, domestic deposits soared almost $100BN (NSA) last week – the most since March (large banks +$78BN, small banks +$22BN), while on an SA basis deposits tumbled $36.5BN – most in two months (large banks -$30BN, small banks -$7BN)…

    Source: Bloomberg

    On the other side of the ledger, loan volume barely budged overall with large bank loan volumes rising just below $1BN and small bank loan volumes shrinking just less than $1BN…

    Source: Bloomberg

    US equity market cap surged back to a new record high, dramatically decoupled from bank reserves at The Fed…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Which is more likely to happen – a collapse in the US equity market or sudden surge in bank deposits at The Fed?

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/07/2024 – 16:50

  • "They Can't Afford To Lose Their Grip On The Levers Of Power…"
    “They Can’t Afford To Lose Their Grip On The Levers Of Power…”

    Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

    Time To Jettison The Animals

    “The old left had intellectual commitments that were false in interesting and theoretically stimulating ways. The new left demands adherence to lurid absurdities so preposterous that merely entertaining them induces nauseating neurological disorders.”

    – Xenocosmography on “X”

    The most astounding part of America’s “Joe Biden” three-plus-years thrill ride is that the Party of Chaos and Hoaxes was able to pretend until just a few days ago that this political phantasm could run for re-election. Now, regime insiders are forced to confess that they can’t hide it anymore. They spilled the beans as “unnamed sources” this week in a huge Wall Street Journal article. The president is going necrotic in full view of the whole world. His mind is gone. He looks ridiculous when he shuffles in front of the cameras. He utters obvious absurdities and lies. His wife has to lead him around like a dog on a leash. Everyone can see it. He’s got to go. ASAP.

    The embarrassing ineptitude has been on view since the 2020 campaign, yet his handlers managed to flimflam half the country ever since, thanks to a news media captured by intel blob gaslighters and to half the country’s susceptibility to mass formation psychosis — fear driven thought disorder — that gave cover to treasonous actors seeking to save their asses even if they had to wreck the USA doing it. Who were these actors? The Clintons and the coterie around them, steeped in financial crime and sex trafficking; the Obama coterie of anti-white racists and bungling Marxists; the batshit-crazy Woke race-and-gender hustlers working to derange the merit-based social order (and get paid for doing it); the congressional grifters living off Pharma and Pentagon loot; the agency top bureaucrats who became a corrupt praetorian guard for all the above players, now desperate to evade accountability.

    Everything they’ve done since 2020 has been in the service of covering up their crimes, and each hoax has just compounded the damage done to our country. The Covid-19 prank was pulled to enable mail-in ballot fraud so as to assure a permanent government-by-blob, of which the Democratic Party is now a mere tentacle. We don’t know yet whether the mRNA vaccine module of the prank was a deliberate effort to kill a lot of people or a grievous blunder by greedy drug-makers, or some wicked combo — with assistance from the WEF or China.

    They can’t afford to lose their grip on the levers of power in the 2024 election — lose control of the Justice Department, the FBI, and the so-called “national security” apparatus, especially. The open border is just an effort to illegally import and enlist a vast wad of potential new voters to ensure an election victory. More than twenty states have “motor-voter laws” that automatically register anybody with a driver’s license. And these enrollees don’t even have to cast their ballot. Their names can just be “harvested” systematically, attached to voting documents, and bundled to be submitted for them. Millions have entered the country illegally since 2021 at “Joe Biden’s” direct invitation. There’s nothing hidden about this — but all you see is the learned helplessness of actual US citizens unable to stop it.

    And yet, even that prank may not work to keep the Party of Chaos and Hoaxes in power. Designated candidate “Joe Biden” is obviously so far gone that even actual citizen voters under the mass formation spell can’t be counted on anymore. His poll numbers look abysmal. He’s scheduled to debate his opponent, the outlaw Donald Trump, on June 27. If his handlers allow that to actually happen, it will be like the unmasking scene in The Phantom of the Opera: brain-ringing horror, from sea to shining sea! Of course, an insult to the zeitgeist that severe will force the party leaders into some ‘splainin’, and I personally doubt they will be able to ‘splain their way out of it. Did all of you Democrats not notice?

    The putative replacements for him — Newsom, Hillary, Pritzker, Whitmer, Harris — are political creatures at least as loathsome to voters as “JB” has become. And the obvious pitfall for Michelle O is that her husband looks like a wannabe American Caesar seeking a fourth term. What else have they got? Nothin’. Some utterly unknown governor they can primp up in a few months? Fugeddabowdit. They’ll have to run one of the loathsomes, take the “L,” and hope for the best, perhaps make a get out of jail “deal” with dealmaker supreme Mr. Trump.

    Or, they could attempt another mighty prank: kill him. You can imagine they’ll try it, having exhausted all other gambits. If they succeed, and it doesn’t provoke an instant civil war, Mr. Trump’s faction has a pretty deep “bench” of capable figures who can step in and run against the Party of Chaos, Hoaxes, and now Murder. If the assassins botch the job, I wouldn’t want to be them on that dreadful day.

    The bottom-line for now: “Joe Biden” is about to wave bye-bye. They’ve already put the question to him. He’s resisting. The one coherent thought in his failing mind is that he has pardon power as long as he is president. It’s not so much Hunter and that silly-ass gun case in Wilmington, which he’ll surely wriggle out of. It’s more about the brothers Jim and Frank and all the spouses and offspring who received wire transfers of Chinese money, Ukraine money, Russian money, Kazak money, Romanian money. . . .

    If necessary, the party and its blob masters could bite the bullet and run the 25th Amendment on the old fraud, git’er done fast, down-and-dirty, virtually overnight any night now. More likely, they’ll “leak” some document from the blob vaults that incontrovertibly incriminates the president on one of the already well-trodden bribery angles. That is, they’ll pretend to discover that not only is “Joe Biden” hopelessly senile, but, turns out, he’s been crooked all along! What a shock! We never suspected ‘til now! Such a seemingly well-intentioned, kindly, patriotic old man! Stand by. It’s going to be a helluva month.

    *  *  *

    Support his blog by visiting Jim’s Patreon Page or Substack

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/07/2024 – 16:25

  • Payrolls Malarkey & Pussy Meltdown Prompts Market Mayhem
    Payrolls Malarkey & Pussy Meltdown Prompts Market Mayhem

    Just when you thought you had the trend all figured out, “the most ridiculous payrolls report in years” combined with a “roaring kitty“ sparked utter mayhem across all asset classes.

    A week of weaker than expected data was met with a barrel of bullshit from the BLS with payrolls beating but unemployment rising as part time jobs soared )for illegal immigrants) and full time jobs plunged leaving the US Macro Surprise Index back at its lowest since Bidenomics was unleashed (with the unemployment rate at 4% for the first time in 3 years)….

    Source: Bloomberg

    And that sent rate-cut expectations (hawkishly) lower – after a week of dovish exuberance…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Aside from the macro meltdown, “Roaring Kitty” sparked chaos amid a bizarre live stream that prompted a 40%-plus collapse in GameStop’s share price…

    Source: Bloomberg

    All of which left Small Caps down on the day and the res of the majors unchanged…

    Source: Bloomberg

    But on the week, Nasdaq outperformed strongly as Small Caps were slammed…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Nasdaq outperformed the Russell 2000 every day this week for its best relative weekly performance in seven months…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Most Shorted stocks tumbled today, going red on the week…

    Source: Bloomberg

    But MAG7 stocks soared for the 6th week in the last 7 (and the best week in the last 7)…

    Source: Bloomberg

    The gap between Nasdaq and the 10Y yield is becoming silly…

    Source: Bloomberg

    But there really was no reason for today’s bond market meltdown a (yield melt-up) as the underlying report was ugly as hell. 2Y Yield ended the week higher (after underperforming today +15bps) but the long-end remained down 10bps on the week (even after an 11bps spike today)…

    Source: Bloomberg

    The dollar spike to one-month highs…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Gold was clubbed like a baby seal as the dollar spiked, trading back at one- monthly lows..

    Source: Bloomberg

    Crypto was also ugly with Bitcoin testing $72,000 and then puking down to find support at $69,000…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Even though BTC ETFs have seen 18 straight day s on net inflows…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Oil prices ended lower o the week but bounced back stromgly in the last three days

    Source: Bloomberg

    Finally, someone is going to be very wrong here…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Who is your money on?

    Because Central Bank liquidity sure ain’t supporting it anymore…

    Source: Bloomberg

    This won’t end well.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/07/2024 – 16:00

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Jun 07

Today’s News 7th June 2024

  • Russia Says It Continues To Cut Oil Production Under OPEC+ Deal
    Russia Says It Continues To Cut Oil Production Under OPEC+ Deal

    By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

    Russia continued to cut its oil production in May per the OPEC+ agreements, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Thursday, in another attempt to reassure the market that OPEC+ producers are committed to the pact and to stabilizing the oil market.  

    “Our reduction against April continued in accordance with our OPEC+ agreements,” Novak told reporters on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, as quoted by Russian news agency TASS.

    Asked about exact numbers for the May oil production, Novak said that the scale of the output cut would become clear in about a week. 

    When the OPEC+ members announced in early March their intentions to extend the cuts into the second quarter, Russia changed its production/export cut plan and said that it would reduce supply by 471,000 bpd in the second quarter in the form of cuts to oil production and exports.

    In April, Russia pledged to reduce production by 350,000 bpd and exports by 121,000 bpd. In May, the 471,000 bpd reduction would be in the form of a 400,000-bpd cut to production and 71,000 bpd cut to exports, and in June the Russian supply cut would be 471,000 bpd entirely from production reductions.

    Output cuts were to account for most of the extra Russian supply cut this quarter, and they could be the result of reduced refining capacity with maintenance in Q2 and refinery rates estimated to have slumped due to Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries. 

    Last month, Russia said that it had “slightly exceeded” in April its oil output target under the OPEC+ pact and that it would compensate for the overproduction.

    The Russian Energy Ministry said in a statement that the overproduction in April was “due to technical difficulties of cutting production in a large amount.”

    “Russia is fully committed to the OPEC+ agreements, plans to compensate for shortfalls in production plans, and will soon submit to the OPEC Secretariat its plan to offset small variations from voluntary production levels,” the ministry said at the end of May.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/07/2024 – 02:00

  • How Bob Iger, DEI, And Wokism Broke Disney's Trust With America
    How Bob Iger, DEI, And Wokism Broke Disney’s Trust With America

    Authored by Richard Truesdell via American Greatness,

    There is something of a subculture on YouTube of armchair analysts and commentators, WDW Pro, Valliant Renegade, and ClownfishTV, to name just three (beyond traditional financial websites like CNBC and Seeking Alpha), who track every cultural, corporate, programming, and financial move of The Walt Disney Company, previously one of America’s most iconic and trusted companies.

    Note: I used the past tense in describing The Walt Disney Company.

    It is no longer one of America’s most trusted brands, and it’s about to lose its iconic status.

    How did this happen?

    On May 7, 2024, in the wake of its successful battle to keep activist investor Nelson Peltz off its Board of Directors back in April (after which Peltz liquidated his Disney holdings, walking away with more than $1 billion), Disney CEO Bob Iger held Disney’s quarterly earnings call, during which its stock tanked almost 10%, losing $20 billion in its market cap. While it has recovered a bit, to $105 a share, it’s well below its 52-week high, $123.72, and off its all-time highest closing price of $201.91 on March 8, 2021. Those investors who abandoned Peltz in his proxy battle for two seats on the Disney Board of Directors can now lick their financial wounds.

    There is speculation in the financial community that if Disney stock again falls below $90 a share, Peltz could mount a third bid for two or more seats on the Disney board or possibly oust Iger. It’s hilarious to watch the New York Times put its spin on the battle, saying Peltz lost his battle with Iger. Actually, Peltz and his Trian Partners investment group walked away with $1 billion. Yes, Peltz lost the battle, but he won the war.

    Despite the current dip, many stock analysts are predicting that Disney stock will rebound. That seems unlikely. Here are the reasons why things are likely to get worse, not better, for The Walt Disney Company for the remainder of 2024 and into 2025.

    Disney is one of America’s wokest companies. It sees itself as being out in front on cultural and social issues, especially where Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion are concerned. This has been a huge issue in America’s—especially American parents’—loss of trust in the House of Mouse. You can’t watch this clip from Disney programming Vice President Latoya Raveneau bragging about how she pushed LGBTQ messages anywhere she could into Disney’s programming without parents seeing that agenda. Because of this agenda, Disney parks, Disney feature films, Disney animation, and especially the Disney Channel have lost trust with many parents.

    Disney has lost its decades-long leadership in animation to NBCUniversal’s Dreamworks Animation studio. Its slate of feature films—with their bloated $250,000,000 production budgets requiring a $500,000,000 theatrical run to just break even—has been an unmitigated disaster. Along the way, it has destroyed two of the successful film franchises it acquired during Iger’s first term as CEO: Star Wars and Indiana Jones. And its long-delayed live-action remake of its own 1937 Snow White classic animated film is mired in its own disaster, mostly due to woke comments from its star, Rachel Ziegler. It was moved back a year from a March 2024 release to 2025. But could its theatrical release be scrapped entirely and go directly to the Disney+ streaming service?

    Related to its film franchises, which also include Marvel and Pixar (which just laid off 175 employees), was the company’s $250,000,000 misadventure, Star Wars: Galactic Starcruiser, a $6,000 two-night Star Wars-themed hotel experience that opened on March 1, 2022, and closed on September 30, 2023. It was forced to take a charge against earnings for this catastrophe. This disaster was documented in a four-hour viral video by YouTuber Jenny Nicholson that has received an incredible seven million views in a little more than two weeks. (That was 10 times the number of views CNN’s coverage of the debacle received.)

    On top of its injection of its left-wing DEI agenda, Disney has more nuts-and-bolts financial issues to contend with.

    They include:

    Theme park attendance is flatlining. What is the measurement matrix? Waiting times at the most popular attractions at its theme parks, Disney World in Florida and Disneyland in California, are plummeting. Over the all-important Memorial Day 2024 weekend, waiting times at the most popular attractions at both theme parks were at decade lows (with the exception of during COVID-19). In addition, its newest attraction at Walt Disney World in Florida, Tiana’s Bayou Adventure, which replaced Splash Mountain, has been panned by the Disney faithful. This review is typical.

    Then there’s Disney’s forced acquisition of the share of the Hulu streaming service it didn’t own (it shared ownership with Comcast), which has been an utter disaster for the company. (As of today’s date, the parties have yet to come to a final agreement on the value of Hulu.) Disney was forced to buy out Comcast’s share, and it is struggling to integrate Hulu into its Disney+ streaming service. This forced payout is now funding Comcast so that it can bid for sporting rights for entities like its recently concluded agreement with NASCAR and the upcoming agreement with the NBA. Both are in direct competition with one the last of Disney’s crown jewels, ESPN. The sports network is trying to reinvent itself as content distribution moves from cable to streaming. Last July it laid off dozens of employees, including high-profile names like Suzy Kolber, Jeff Van Gundy, Jalen Rose, and Steve Young, in what was a cost-cutting move.

    Disney is no longer American parents’ babysitter. Here’s one parent’s open letter to Disney.

    I say all this as a baby boomer who grew up with Disney in the 1950s and 1960s (that will give you an idea of how old I am). Disney’s current values are no longer those of its namesake founder, Walt Disney. Parents, especially those in the center and on the right, that are trying to raise their kids with the traditional values that made America great in the last century, no longer trust the House of Mouse. And until there is housecleaning, starting at the top of the C-suite, Disney will not be trusted again.

    Putting ideology ahead of entertainment has decimated an American institution. Walt Disney has been spinning in his grave ever since Bob Iger first became CEO back in 2005 during his first term. It continued during the short reign of Bob Chapek from 2020 to 2021, then accelerated at warp speed after Iger returned to the CEO role in 2022, post-COVID. The Walt Disney Company is broken, and until it gets new leadership at the top and refocuses on its core mission, to entertain, it is headed in only one direction: down. And that’s a shame for baby boomers like me who grew up with Walt Disney when our parents could trust the company to deliver wholesome entertainment not tainted by an agenda or ideology.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 06/06/2024 – 23:30

  • False Flag On The Horizon? The Strange Case Of The Destroyed Russian Nuclear Radar
    False Flag On The Horizon? The Strange Case Of The Destroyed Russian Nuclear Radar

    Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

    If we accept the fundamental truth that Ukraine is nothing more than a proxy battleground between Russia and the west, then you might say WWIII has already begun. The powers-that-be have been content to keep the situation contained primarily to Ukraine so far, but a recent event suggests things are about to change. There’s something very strange happening on the nuclear front between NATO and Russia and I believe it might be time to consider the possibility that a false flag threat is in the works.

    In the past two weeks Ukraine has taken credit for at least two separate strikes on peculiar targets – Russian “over the horizon” radar stations using drones with an impressive flight range of at least 1200 miles. Until this point, long range attacks into Russian territory have been exceedingly rare. So, why these specifics radar stations?

    The Voronezh-DM stations were positioned outside the city of Orsk and the region of Krasnodar (Armavir); far away from the front lines in Ukraine. The strikes are being hailed as the furthest Ukraine has attacked into the heart of Russia, but the corporate media has ignored the wider implications of the situation.

    It is likely that the drones used were of US or European origin. NATO has (until the past couple of days) enforced tight restrictions on how their weapons can be used by Ukraine. Long range drones and cruise missiles hitting targets deep in Russia invites major blowback, including the threat of a nuclear response.

    That said, it’s not so much the weapons used that concerns me, it’s the specific targets that Ukraine supposedly chose.

    Russia’s over-the-horizon radar systems have a detection range of at least 6000 miles (the real range is classified) and scan specifically for high altitude ballistic missiles. They are not designed to detect lower flying medium range cruise missiles (ATACMS) and drones. Meaning, the two stations destroyed by Ukrainian weapons are meant to act as an early warning system for nuclear attack.

    The Ukrainians supposedly defied NATO restrictions, not once, but twice, to target radar systems that have nothing to do with them. In fact, the arrays sit in permanently fixed positions and neither array was actually aimed at Ukraine, they were aimed to the North and Southwest of Russia. The Armavir radar was constructed in 2009 to close a gap created by the loss of radars in Ukraine, and was also meant to replace an older Daryal radar in Gabala. Interestingly, Armavir and Orsk “search fans” watches the skies primarily above the Middle East, including Israel, and a large chunk of Europe including Switzerland.

    Instead of attacking vital strategic resources like oil refineries or ammo depots, Russia’s nuclear defenses are being systematically hobbled. Why?

    It’s important to understand that a strike of this kind deep into the center of Russia requires complex planning and logistics. It cannot be achieved without covert intel on the ground as well as aid from satellite surveillance. Ukraine relies completely on NATO satellites and intel; no such strike would ever be possible without NATO involvement. Furthermore, the drones used would need to have the ability to evade early detection systems and remain hidden for thousands of miles. This kind of technology comes mainly from the west.

    In other words, there’s no way that these attacks were accomplished by Ukraine without extensive help and approval from the US or European command. I question the notion that a Ukrainian pilot was even remotely flying the drones. We’re talking about some of the most closely defended radar stations in the whole of Russia.

    Why does any of this matter?

    Let’s consider the ugly realities…

    First, the targeting of Russian nuclear defenses might make the Kremlin believe they are being prepped for a nuclear strike. Why else would their ballistic radar be singled out? This means they will be on high alert for a possible nuclear exchange. Not good.

    Second, the Voronezh-DM stations are used to identify FALSE POSITIVE alerts of nuclear attack. Meaning, if there a weapon is used against Russia that mimics a high altitude ballistic missile, their ability to detect that it’s NOT a nuke has been reduced. They might launch their own warheads in response to a non-nuclear strike (a fake strike or false flag).

    Third, Armavir and other stations could be used to record ballistic missile activity well outside Russian air space (in places like the Middle East). It’s possible these strikes were meant to blind Russia and stop them from detecting missile events that are unrelated to the Ukraine war.

    Fourth, it’s possible that NATO and Ukraine believe dismantling the radar sends a message that if Russia threatens nuclear attack, they might be hit first. All this means is that Russia won’t give a warning, they’ll simply launch.

    Fifth, the attack on Armavir alone meets the conditions the Russian government laid out publicly in 2020 for actions that could trigger a nuclear retaliatory strike. Russia’s early warning network is part of the country’s broader nuclear deterrent posture.

    “The conditions specifying the possibility of nuclear weapons use by the Russian Federation” include any “attack by an adversary against critical governmental or military sites of the Russian Federation, disruption of which would undermine nuclear forces response actions,” according to the Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence the Kremlin published in 2020.

    So far there has been no indication on how Russia will retaliate, but let’s consider the circumstances at the front right now. Ukrainian defenses are thin and they lack the manpower needed to maintain the most rudimentary of strong points. As I noted last month, Ukraine’s front line is about to be overrun, likely this summer, with Russia opening a new offensive push in the north near Kharkiv.

    NATO countries are now say they support Ukraine’s use of long range weapons inside Russia. This means major metropolitan areas of Ukraine will be on the the table for Russia’s own long range strikes, a measure which they have avoided for the most part. Also watch for the potential use of thermobaric bombs (vacuum bombs) by Russia; these are massively destructive weapons that have so far been absent from the battlefield (aside from unverified reports).

    The west is sending Russia the message that they will not allow Ukraine to lose, they will not pursue diplomatic solutions and if Russia begins gaining significant ground, anything goes. Does this include nukes? It’s hard to say.

    My suspicion is that the establishment wants to create a scenario in which Russia is led to overreact to an event, or, the public is led to believe Russia is a legitimate nuclear threat to the west. There is also the outside possibility that Russia is being blocked from monitoring a future ballistic incident in the Middle East.

    The timing of the radar attacks comes only weeks before the planned Ukraine “peace conference” in Switzerland on June 15th. Although major leaders from the US, China, and Europe will not be attending (and Russia isn’t invited), the summit is still a juicy target for a false flag and thus unification of western interests around a larger war with Russia. I’m not saying the conference itself will be attacked, necessarily, but a major attack during the conference could be used to sell the idea of total NATO intervention.

    If the goal is to expand the war then any perceived hostilities aimed at the conference could also be used as an excuse to rally popular support. The fact that so many world leaders including Biden refuse to show up makes it even more dubious.

    I highly doubt the establishment wants to trigger a global nuclear war. They have everything to lose and very little to gain. They just spent the better part of the last century building up one of the most intricate economic and political control grids in the history of humanity. I don’t think they would be happy to see it all vaporized in the blink of an eye. That said, a limited nuclear event might serve their interests well.

    As I write this multiple governments including the French government are calling for European troops to be deployed to Ukraine. Some political leaders want them to go as “advisers” and trainers. This is exactly what the US did right before it deployed extensive military forces to Vietnam. Remember the false flag Gulf of Tonkin incident?

    Something very odd is going on here. I have no doubt that WWIII is the intended outcome of the confrontation between NATO and Russia in Ukraine. The question is, how do they plan to arrange that outcome while convincing the American and European public to join the war effort? They need a serious false flag.

    *  *  *

    If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch.  Learn more about it HERE.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 06/06/2024 – 22:30

  • Airline Industry Leaves COVID Turbulence Behind
    Airline Industry Leaves COVID Turbulence Behind

    Having left behind most Covid-related turbulences, the global airline industry emerged from the storm in 2023, returning to profitability after three years of deep losses. According to the estimate from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), commercial airlines ended 2023 with a net profit of $27.4 billion, up from a loss of $3.5 billion in 2022 and significantly higher than previously expected. Back in December, IATA had predicted 2023 profits to come in around $23 billion.

    Speaking at the IATA’s 80th Annual General Meeting in Dubai on Monday, IATA’s Director General Willie Walsh hailed the industry’s successful recovery from the pandemic, while also warning that the industry’s profit margins remain “wafer thin.”

    “We deserve to celebrate the hard work that has brought our industry back from the brink, while acknowledging that we remain squeezed between a fiercely competitive environment downstream and the oligopolistic upstream supply chain’s lack of competition,” Walsh said, adding that “onerous regulation” and persistent supply chain problems also stand in the way of sustainable industry-level profits.

    Passenger revenue is expected to reach $744 billion, exceeding the 2019 total by more than 22 percent, driven in part by an increase in in passenger volume and in part by improvements in passenger yields. Additionally, as Statista’s Felix Richter shows in the chart below, net profits are expected to climb to $30.5 billion this year, which is more than previously forecast but still not enough to build financial resilience and invest in a more sustainable future, according to Walsh.

    Infographic: Airline Industry Leaves Covid Turbulences Behind | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    “The airline industry is on the path to sustainable profits, but there is a big gap still to cover. A 5.7 percent return on invested capital is well below the cost of capital, which is over 9 percent. And earning just $6.14 per passenger is an indication of just how thin our profits are – barely enough for a coffee in many parts of the world.”

    Looking ahead, the IATA expects industry revenues to reach a historic high of $996 billion in 2024, as 38.7 million flights are expected for the year, just 0.2 million short of the 2019 supply.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 06/06/2024 – 22:00

  • The Power Grid Expansion, Part 3: Investments
    The Power Grid Expansion, Part 3: Investments

    Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

    We continue with our discussion of investment ideas that could benefit from upgrading and expanding the power grid to accommodate surging demand from AI data centers and EVs.

    This third and final part of this series focuses on alternative energy sources, utility companies, and other companies related to the power grid infrastructure.

    If you haven’t read Parts ONE or TWO we recommend reading them before continuing.

    Alternative/Renewable Energy Sources

    In 2022, the Department of Energy calculated that renewable energy from solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, and biomass accounted for a fifth of all electricity generation. By 2028, the IEA thinks the percentage will double to 42%. Solar and wind power are expected to be the primary alternative energy sources.

    Investments in solar, wind, and other alternative energy sources, along with natural gas, coal, and nuclear, will be increasingly vital to power our utility plants. Furthermore, suppose the US and other nations continue to strive for net zero emissions by 2050 and other environmental goals. The demand for existing and new alternative energy sources will surge in that case.   

    Renewable energy has benefits and flaws compared to natural gas. The significant advantage of renewable energy is it produces minimal greenhouse gas emissions, as shown below. Second, and equally important, according to the IEA World Energy Outlook, solar and wind energy are the cheapest renewable energy sources and cost much less than carbon-based ones.

    However, they have considerable flaws that need to be overcome. Consider the following from Green Solutions.

    Relies heavily on weather conditions. When adverse weather conditions occur, renewable energy technologies like solar cells may not be as effective. For example, during periods of rain, PV panels cannot generate electricity, necessitating a shift back to traditional power sources.

    Lower efficiency. Regrettably, renewable technologies generally exhibit lower efficiency compared to traditional energy conversion devices. For example, commercially available solar panels have an efficiency of about 15% to 20%. In contrast, traditional technologies utilizing coal or natural gas can achieve efficiency levels of up to 40% and 60%, respectively.

    High upfront cost. The manufacturing and installation processes for renewable energy devices, such as PV panels, can be relatively expensive. Only for installation, solar panels cost about $17,430 to $23,870 on average.

    Limited geographical region. The availability of high-quality land is limited, leading developers to urgently search for new sites. For example, in Germany, regulatory, environmental, and technical limitations significantly reduce the potentially suitable for onshore wind farms to just 2%.

    Shortages of key raw materials. This includes essential metals like nickel, copper, and rare earth metals, such as neodymium and praseodymium, which are vital for the creation of magnets used in wind turbine generators.

    Renewable Stocks Are Not Following the Narrative

    With time, we believe renewable energy will become much more efficient and hopefully be in a better position to help meet the surging needs of the nation’s utility plants. Investors do not seem as hopeful. 

    The recent narrative pushing investors to power grid-related investments has skipped past renewable stocks. The graph below shows two popular alternative energy ETFs, Invesco’s Solar ETF (TAN) and iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (ICLN). Both ETFs are well off their 2008 highs and recent peaks in late 2020. 

    Alternative energy stocks and diversified ETFs may be excellent investments for longer-term investors as renewable energy will be relied upon heavily. Furthermore, their stocks have not benefited from the power grid expansion narrative.

    Batteries Technology Is Vital To Renewable Energy

    Solar and wind energy are not dependable due to weather conditions. For example, the following quote from OilPrice.com:

    But while solar power has made the U.S. power-generating system greener, it has also made it more volatile, especially in the top solar market, California. 

    There, peak solar power generation coincides with the lowest residential electricity demand during the midday. When power demand begins to surge after 6 p.m., solar output begins to fade.  

    In California, for example, “on sunny spring days when there is not as much demand, electricity prices go negative and solar generation must be ‘curtailed’ or essentially, thrown away,” says the Institute for Energy Research (IER).

    Accordingly, utilities need more efficient batteries to store excess renewable energy for use during peak demand periods and when the weather isn’t conducive for electricity generation. Without more efficient batteries, undependable alternative energy sources cannot be relied upon as much as the environmental goals demand.

    Companies involved in energy storage, especially those at the forefront of producing more efficient batteries, may have significant upside. But, with unproven technology come substantial risks for investors. For instance, many new types of battery technology are in development.

    • Solid-state batteries

    • Lithium-sulfur batteries

    • Cobalt-free lithium-ion batteries

    • Sodium-ion batteries

    • Iron-air batteries

    • Zinc-based batteries

    • Graphene batteries

    Battery Diversification May Be Critical

    Even if you know which type of battery will be the winner, so to speak, you also have the arduous task of figuring out which company will be a primary producer of the battery. Unless you believe you have good insight into battery technology and the key players in the industry, we think a diversified battery ETF may provide the best investment results. Further, the large battery ETFs are also diversified, with investments in lithium and other metal producers. Unfortunately, ETFs in this space are limited.

    Global X Lithium & Battery Tech (LIT) is far and away the largest, with nearly $1.5 billion AUM. While it invests in companies with new battery technology, it also “invests in the full lithium cycle, from mining and refining the metal, through battery production.” Its top three holdings are lithium producers.

    Amplify Lithium and Battery Technology (BATT) is the second largest ETF with a mere $89 million in AUM. Like LIT, they invest in lithium producers like BHP and Albemarle.

    If you want to make investments in individual companies, Tesla (battery technologies), LG Chem, and Samsung SDI are well-positioned in the industry.

    Lithium Miners

    Assuming lithium remains a crucial component in electricity storage batteries, its miners should do well, especially given the recent decline in lithium prices and the related stocks.

    North Carolina-based Albemarle (ALB) is the world’s top lithium producer and the largest producer by market cap. It is the only lithium producer of size based in the US. Like the rest of the alternative energy sector, its stock has traded poorly recently. However, with a forward P/E of 16, there is value if its revenues continue upward at their recent pace.

    We caution you that lithium deposits are being actively explored. Assuming success, the lithium supply may limit the price appreciation of lithium. As an example from The Hill- Researchers make massive lithium discovery in Pennsylvania.

    Utility and Grid Operators

    Utilities will generate more power, thus increasing their revenue. However, they must invest significant capital to modernize, expand, and reduce greenhouse emissions.

    AI data center locations are partially chosen based on their ability to source cheap electricity. Thus, utility companies in the Southeast and Midwest, with access to cheaper natural gas and more reliable alternative energy generation, will be the most cost-effective locations for data centers. The map below shows that Virginia hosts the greatest number of data centers, followed by California and Texas.

    Dominion Energy (D) in Virginia and Entergy (ETR) in Texas are the two utility companies that may be the biggest beneficiaries of the growth of AI data centers. Both stocks have relatively low forward P/E’s of approximately 14 and dividend yields of 4.25% for D and 5.50% for ETR. It will be crucial to follow their margins to see how effectively they offset the expansion costs with rising revenue.

    Constellation Energy (CEG) and NextEra Energy (NEE) are also worth tracking as they invest heavily in renewable energy infrastructure and will benefit from increased demand. We would add Duke (DUK) and Southern Company (SO) to the list of companies to follow.

    Additional Investment Ideas

    We now present an assortment of industries and firms that can benefit.

    Technology and AI Firms

    Companies specializing in AI software for energy efficiency and management will find opportunities in this evolving landscape. Some of the more prominent names in this sector include IBM, Google, Microsoft, Oracle, and GE Vernova.

    Physical Plant Expansion

    Companies that supply utility plants with generators, transformers, circuit breakers, and switchboards, among many other parts, will undoubtedly benefit from power grid expansion.

    GE Vernova, Eaton, Quanta Services, Emerson Electric, and Siemens

    Water/Cooling

    The average data center uses 300,000 gallons of water a day to cool its equipment. That is the equivalent of the water used by 100,000 homes. Therefore, companies that can develop cheap cooling solutions for data centers will be in high demand.

    Vertiv Holdings (VRT) is a leader in this segment. Its shares have risen tenfold since it went public in 2019 and now trades at a P/E of 100. It’s a high-risk, high-reward stock, not for the faint of heart.

    Infrastructure ETFs

    There are many other businesses set to profit from the coming infrastructure boom.

    Those looking for a diversified investment approach in the power grid may want to explore thematic ETFs.

    For example, the First Trust Clean Edge Smart Grid Infrastructure Fund (GRID) holds 103 positions. Beyond diversification and portfolio manager expertise, the fund can buy stocks in foreign markets, which many US investors do not have access to or are uncomfortable with.

    iShares (IFRA) is a similar fund with a different basket of stocks and approach toward investing in the industry.

    The bottom line is we are confident the expansion and modernization of the power grid will be highly profitable for some companies. However, many companies involved, especially smaller companies with limited product offerings, offer massive rewards but substantial risks. Diversification will prove to be essential for investors.   

    Summary

    The more we researched the power grid expansion, the more industries, and companies we exposed that could benefit from it. While this article stops here, we will continue investigating the topic and share any exciting findings in the future. The number of rabbit holes is seemingly endless. We encourage you to explore the topic and share any findings you may uncover with us.

    Like the birth of the internet, some companies like AOL, Yahoo, and Sun Microsystem, which were the supposed internet leaders, fell by the waist side. Other companies, some already large, others virtually unknown, become leaders. The key to investing in this expansion is to remain vigilant for new companies and technologies that can blossom. Do not assume that the companies in charge today will be so tomorrow. Keep your head on a swivel.

    For those unable to invest the time and effort to understand industry trends and identify companies likely to profit, a fund(s) with professionals highly focused on the industry may prove an excellent way to take advantage of the potential infrastructure boom.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 06/06/2024 – 21:30

  • Ukraine Has Requested NATO Military Instructors On Its Soil, Macron Says
    Ukraine Has Requested NATO Military Instructors On Its Soil, Macron Says

    French President Emmanuel Macron used the occasion of D-Day memorial events in France on Thursday to make some big announcements on Ukraine. This after President Biden focused much of his speech on ‘defeating Russia’ – as opposed to remembrance of WWII and those who perished on the beaches of Normandy.

    For the first time Macron said that there’s been a specific request from the Zelensky government to send French troops to Ukrainian soil in order to train forces there, amid a growing manpower shortage and severe lag in adequate training.

    “There is a challenge in capacity. That is why the Ukrainian president and his minister of defence asked all the allies — 48 hours ago in an official letter — saying ‘we need you to train us quicker and that you do this on our soil’,” Macron said in a live interview on French television, translated by AFP.

    Via AP

    While stopping short of committing to sending troops (given there’s been no consensus reached by NATO allies yet), Macron did indicate the French military will equip and train an entire brigade of 4,500 Ukrainian soldiers – but crucially this training is being conducted outside Ukraine.

    Macron also announced readiness to transfer Mirage-2000 fighter jets to Ukraine, and to train their pilots on the aircraft, while not specifying the number of jets to be sent.

    “Tomorrow we will launch a new cooperation and announce the transfer of Mirage 2000-5,” Macron indicated in the interview, referencing the fighter made by French manufacturer Dassault.

    The pilot training program will kick off this summer, and the details will reportedly be hashed out when Macron meets Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the Elysee Palace in Paris on Friday.

    “You need normally between five-six months. So by the end of the year there will be pilots. The pilots will be trained in France,” he continued.

    As for sending Western troops directly into Ukraine, Macron cautioned, “We are working with our partners and we will act on the basis of a collective decision.”

    But at this point in the conflict this is a losing proposition and the West knows it, even if officials don’t admit it openly. There’s huge risk and only downside. President Putin and top Kremlin officials have repeatedly vowed they will attack any foreign troops found on Ukraine soil.

    Journalist and national security commentator Andrew Cockburn summed up the situation as follows: “As Russian forces steadily advance in the Kharkiv region, it is becoming ever more clear that the Ukraine war has been a disaster for the U.S. defense machine, and not just because our aid has failed to save Ukraine from retreat and possible defeat. More importantly, the war has pitilessly exposed our defense system’s deep, underlying, faults.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 06/06/2024 – 21:00

  • Markets Have Overreacted To OPEC's Plan To Phase Out Production Cuts
    Markets Have Overreacted To OPEC’s Plan To Phase Out Production Cuts

    By Alex Kimani of OilPrice.com

    OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to extend most of its oil output cuts well into 2025 amid tepid demand growth, rising U.S. production and high interest rates. OPEC+ is currently cutting output by a total of 5.86 million barrels per day (bpd), or about 5.7% of global demand, including 3.66 million bpd of cuts previously set to expire at the end of 2024, and voluntary cuts by eight members of 2.2 million bpd, expiring at the end of June 2024. The announcement led to an oil price selloff, with front-month Brent falling to a four-month low below $77 per barrel (bbl), good for a hefty $8/bbl decline from last week’s high and over $15/bbl lower from April’s YTD high.

    Commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have pointed out that the price undershooting was the consequence of markets being dominated by a combination of extreme macroeconomic pessimism; speculative shorts and over-enthusiastic algorithmic trading that crowded out more fundamentally-based traders. According to data from Bridgeton Research Group via Bloomberg, oil futures markets have now flipped to a net short position in Brent, compared with a net long position at the end of last week.

    StanChart says the oil price rout has been triggered by market expectations for a significant volume of OPEC+ oil returning to the global markets 2024; however, the analysts have argued that this explanation does not hold much water. According to StanChart, assuming market conditions are such that the increases can commence, the increase in Q4 relative to Q2 is likely to clock in at a relatively modest 360 kb/d, with the analysts saying that OPEC+ has room to increase production by 1 million b/d without upsetting market balance. Further, StanChart points out that the phase-out will be conditional depending on the state of global markets at the time with most general asset markets not expecting FOMC to follow all its current forward guidance to the letter regardless of future data and events. However, the reaction by oil markets seems to suggest that the forward guidance given by the eight OPEC+ countries concerned constitutes a determination to produce, regardless of whatever happens.

    StanChart has pointed out a number of other bullish factors that the markets have overlooked:

    •  The 1.65mb/d of voluntary cuts agreed in April 2023 have been extended to the end of 2025.
    • The required production level for all OPEC+ countries across 2025 was reaffirmed. 
    • The agreement was finally reached in the long-running discussion with the UAE, resulting in a 300kb/d increase in the UAE’s required production level, spread out over nine months starting in January 2025.
    • Russia, Iraq and Kazakhstan have agreed to produce a compensation schedule for H1 overproduction by the end of June
    • The discussion of targets in light of third-party consultant assessments of capacity was postponed until late-2025 when it may be a basis for discussion of 2026 required production.
    • The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) was given authority to request an OPEC+ ministerial meeting at any time or hold additional meetings should it choose to.

    Overall, the analysts say that OPEC+ decisions will ultimately prove positive for oil prices. More importantly, the OPEC+ report has increased transparency with the likelihood of bearish tail-risk events materializing minimized. 

    Meanwhile, StanChart has reported that there has been no change in the dominant dynamics of the European gas market, with inventories building slower than usual and the markets still proving highly sensitive to supply issues. According to Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) data, EU gas inventories stood at 81.75 billion cubic meters (bcm) on 2 June, good for a 1.1 bcm Y/Y increase and 14.9 bcm above the five-year average. Inventory build over the past week was 1.9 bcm, considerably lower than the five-year average for the same period of 2.8 bcm and last year’s 2.4 bcm. The experts also note that the surplus above the five-year average has fallen on 45 of the past 48 days. 

    The natural gas supply-side continues to be plagued with challenges. The latest supply disruption that triggered a rally was a fault in Norway’s Sleipner gas field. StanChart has predicted that whereas the outage is likely to be short-lived (current estimates are that repairs should be over by the coming weekend), prices are likely to remain elevated bolstered by slower-than-average inventory builds. Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas for January 2025 delivery reached a high of EUR 43.30 per megawatt hour (MWh) on 3 June while the front-month contract reached a five-month high of EUR 38.70/MWh on the same day before falling back to settle at EUR 36.014/MWh.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 06/06/2024 – 20:35

  • Modi's BJP Loses Parliament Majority
    Modi’s BJP Loses Parliament Majority

    Despite exit polls and projections suggesting otherwise, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) took a considerable hit at the election for the 18th Lok Sabha, India’s lower house voted on by the country’s citizens. Compared to 2019, the BJP lost 63 seats and was 32 seats shy of the 272-seat majority. For the first time since 2014, Modi will have to rely on other parties to secure a BJP-led government. However, if alliance allegiance holds, a coalition led by Modi’s party is bound to stay in power for five more years.

    As Statista’s Florian Zandt shows in the chart below, based on data from the Election Commission of India, Modi’s National Democratic Alliance (NDA) comprised of a variety of conservative and nationalist parties won a combined 293 seats in this year’s election. Its rival, the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), scored 234 seats. INDIA is led by the center-left Indian National Congress, which won 99 seats and whose tally was up 47 seats compared to 2019. Until the official formation of a new government, Modi has resigned as Prime Minister and will reportedly continue as a “caretaker”.

    Infographic: Modi's BJP Loses Parliament Majority | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    As of the time of writing, no official coalition talks have started, even though it is likely that both the BJP and INDIA will try to secure political parties not necessarily completely aligned with their views as kingmakers. Candidates include Janata Dal (United), which won 12 seats and is part of the NDA but has switched allegiance many times in the past, or the Telugu Desam Party, which can be seen as economically liberal and politically nationalist and regionalist and has won 16 seats in the election.

    The election for the 18th Lok Sabha is said to be the largest election ever worldwide. It took place over 44 days and brought out 642 million Indians to the polls, 312 million of which were women, according to Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar cited in The Hindu. Overall, 969 million citizens were registered to vote, creating a turnout of roughly 66 percent.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 06/06/2024 – 20:10

  • A Second-Quarter Recession This Year Looks Increasingly Likely
    A Second-Quarter Recession This Year Looks Increasingly Likely

    Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

    As I watch the evolution of consumer spending, housing starts, new home sales, and GDPNow trends, it appears the economy has peaked. Warning: I tend to be early.

    GDPNow forecast from the Atlanta Fed as of 2024-06-03. Chart by Mish

    The GDPNow forecast has been weakening since a peak of 4.2 percent on May 8, 2024.

    The best number to follow is not the overall forecast but rather Real Final Sales (RFS). The rest is inventory adjustment that nets to zero over time.

    A steep plunge occurred in the base forecast from 3.5 to 2.7 then to 1.8 on May 1 and June 3. Importantly, RFS fell from 2.9 to 2.1 to 1.8 on the same dates.

    Balance of Trade

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    I made that call on May 30.

    On June 1, I commented Soaring US Trade Deficit Smacks the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast

    On June 3, the GDPNow forecast took another dive.

    The following table that shows both moves.

    GDPnow Contributions

    Advance Economic Indicators, specifically import-export data took the Net Exports contribution to GDP from -0.06 to -0.60 on May 31.

    Also on May 31, Personal Income and Outlays took the contribution for Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) from 2.28 to 1.75.

    It’s not always easy to assign the numbers to specific buckets, but the plunge in net exports is clear.

    ISM Manufacturing New Orders and Backlogs in Steep Contraction

    ISM chart and excerpts below by permission from the Institute for Supply Management® ISM®

    On June 3, I commented ISM Manufacturing New Orders and Backlogs in Steep Contraction

    The Manufacturing ISM was in contraction for 16 months went positive for a month and is contracting again for two months with order backlogs falling for 20 months.

    June 3 Impact to GDPNow

    On June 3, the ISM and construction spending reports clobbered PCE with lesser negative impacts on Residential Investments, Equipment, and Net Exports.

    Assigning percentages here is more difficult, and the Atlanta Fed might not be able to do so either. This is because the variables are entered at the same time and one can influence another.

    However, the decline in Residential Investment from -0.08 to -0.18 is easy to attribute to the construction spending report. The big declines from 1.75 to 1.19 on PCE and 0.42 to 0.25 on equipment are harder to attribute precisely.

    It’s important to note that what matters is not the reports but what GDPNow expected vs the reports. Bad data does not necessarily cause a decline in GDPnow, nor good data a rise.

    Below Stall Speed

    With Real Final Sales at 1.3 percent (lead chart) the economy is at stall speed. But will we stay there?

    Real (inflation-adjusted) Income and spending was negative in April. Real income was negative two of the last 3 months.

    Chart from the BEA, annotations by Mish

    For discussion of the above chart, please see The Fed’s Preferred Inflation Measure, PCE, Shows No Further Progress

    Real (inflation-adjusted) Income and spending was negative in April. Real income was negative two of the last 3 months.

    Personal Income Four Ways

    Real Disposable Personal Income (after taxes) has stalled.

    For discussion, please see Why Consumers Are Angry About the Economy in Five Pictures

    Anger Synopsis

    Consumers are angry, and it’s reflected in the polls. I have been discussing the reasons for angry consumers all year.

    But Biden and most economists still don’t get it. They think the economy is doing well. Tell that to renters looking to buy a home, stuck with rent going up month after month.

    More Soft Economic Data, Q1 GDP Revised Lower, Q4 GDI Significantly Lower

    GDP and GDI data from BEA, chart by Mish

    On May 30, I commented More Soft Economic Data, Q1 GDP Revised Lower, Q4 GDI Significantly Lower

    The economic slowdown continues led by income and consumer spending.

    The same story is repeating in April.

    Revisions a Hallmark of Economic Turns

    May 24: Another Massive Revision, This Time Durable Goods, What’s Going On

    May 23: New Home Sales Sink 4.7 Percent on Top of Huge Negative Revisions

    May 22: Discretionary Spending Tumbles at Target, Shares Drop 10 Percent

    May 22: Existing-Home Sales Decline 1.9 Percent, Sales Mostly Stagnant for 17 Months

    April 15: Elon Musk Fires 10 Percent of Tesla Workforce, Prepares for “Next Phase of Growth”

    Misfiring on All Cylinders

    For the past two years whenever one segment of the economy misfired, another picked up. Some labeled this a rolling recession.

    Every time consumers appeared to throw in the towel, there was another surge in spending.

    Now it appears the economy is misfiring on consumer discretionary spending, new home sales, existing-home sales, durable goods, EVs simultaneously, and income simultaneously.

    Recession Q&A

    Q: Mish aren’t you nearly always early on recession calls?
    A: Guilty as charged.

    Q: Did you call a recession that did not happen at all?
    A: Guilty as charged.

    Is the US in Recession Now? Two Prominent Competing Views

    On May 28, I discussed the question Is the US in Recession Now? Two Prominent Competing Views

    Danielle DiMartino Booth has been beating the drums for weeks that the US is in recession and has been since October. No so fast says Jim Bianco. 

    I also explain how I went wrong on my recession forecasts and why I believe Booth is early in her position that a recession started in October 2023.

    Finally, I discuss when I think recession is likely.

    In the above post I discuss the McKelvey indicator championed by DiMartino Booth. It has a pretty good but not perfect track record in forecasting recessions.

    My follow-up post was on GDPplus, another recession indicator, discussed below. First, please note the big reason the economy avoided a recession in late 2022 and 2023 was amazingly enough a tax cut!

    Tax Cuts Explain Surge in Consumer Spending in 2023

    Tax data from the BEA, chart by Mish

    On January 29, 2024, I commented Tax Cuts, Not Bidenomics Explains Surge in Consumer Spending in 2023

    Also, on January 1, 2023, 38 states had noteworthy tax changes. 37 of the changes put extra money in people’s pockets. The combination murdered the then-pending recession.

    For details of the tax cut please click on the previous link.

    The GDPplus Indicator

    GDPplus is a Philadelphia Fed method that blends, not averages GDP and GDI. The Philadelphia Fed revised the indicator significantly lower on Thursday.

    It’s also a very good predictor of recessions.

    GDPplus from Philadelphia Fed and GDI from the BEA, chart by Mish

    For discussion, please see Philadelphia Fed GDPplus Revised Significantly Lower, But No Recession Yet

    By “yet” I was referring to the idea that a recession started in 2024 Q1.

    Data is now weakening so fast, on so many fronts, that I expect a recession this year. Unlike 2023, there will be no tax cut or minimum wage hikes in 37 states to boost consumer spending now.

    Judging from the recent slide, and assuming it continues, the economy may have peaked in April with a recession starting in May.

    Label it recession by slow-acting poison of Bidenomics with a temporary 2023 reprieve due to tax cuts.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 06/06/2024 – 19:45

  • Wall Street Admits The Biggest Economic Shocker: All Jobs In The Past Year Have Gone To Illegal Aliens
    Wall Street Admits The Biggest Economic Shocker: All Jobs In The Past Year Have Gone To Illegal Aliens

    For much of the past year we had been pounding the table on two very simple facts:  not only has the US labor market been appallingly weak, with most of the jobs “gained” in 2023 and meant to signal how strong the Biden “recovery” has been, about to be revised away (as first the Philly Fed and now Bloomberg both admit), but more shockingly, all the job growth in the past few years has gone to illegal aliens.

    We first pointed this out more than a year ago, and since then we have routinely repeated – again, again, and again – yet even though we made it abundantly clear what was happening…

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    … going so far as to point out the specific immigration loophole illegals were using to work in the US for up to 5 years…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    … and even fact-checking the senile, ballot-harvesting White House occupant on multiple occasions…

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    … we were shocked that the topic of most if not all US jobs going to illegals was still not “the biggest political talking point” of all.

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    That’s about to change, however, because with just under 5 months left until the election, and with immigration by far the hottest political topic out there, others are finally starting to connect the dots we laid out more than a year ago.

    The first Wall Street analyst daring to point out that the employment emperor is naked, is Standard Chartered’s global head of macro, Steve Englander who in a note titled simply enough “Immigration leading to labor-market surge” (and available to pro subscribers in the usualk place), writes that according to his estimates “undocumented immigrants account for half of job growth in FY24 so far” (the actual number is far higher but we understand his initial conservatism), and adds that “asylum seekers and humanitarian parolees explain the surge in undocumented immigrants” before concluding that the continued rise in EAD approvals likely will extend strong employment growth in 2024. In other words, “strong employment growth” for American citizens, always was and remains a fabulation, and the only job growth in the US is for illegals, who will work for below minimum wage, which also explains why inflation hasn’t spiked in the past year as millions of illegals were hired.

    Below we excerpt from the Englander note because we hope that more economists, strategists and politicians will read it and grasp what we have been saying for over a year.

    Echoing what we have said for months, Englander writes that immigration, particularly illegal immigration, “is a political flashpoint that has also become an important factor in assessing economic performance. Detailed data from US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) suggest that half of non-farm payroll (NFP) growth to date for FY24 (started 1 October 2023) has been from undocumented immigrants who have received an Employment Authorization Document (EAD)” (he defines undocumented immigrants as those who entered the US through non-traditional immigration pathways, such as asylum seekers, parolees, and refugees).

    The ability to track EAD issuance to undocumented workers is an advantage in estimating how much they have contributed to employment growth. NFP counts workers with an EAD just like any other. Using that data, it is easy to estimate that undocumented workers have added 109k jobs per month to NFP out of the average 231k increase so far in FY24.

    Which is staggering since last night we showed that about 100K monthly jobs are purely statistical distortions, and the real pace of job growth in the past year has been around 130K.

    So if 100K jobs per month are fabricated birth/death artifacts (i.e., not real jobs but a statistically goalseeked fudge factor), and another 109K jobs per month are illegal aliens, that leaves just about 11K jobs for everyone else, i.e., law abiding Americans.

    It also means that the labor market in the US has – for the past year – been an absolute catastrophe and harbinger of economic disaster (and is why last night we pointed out “The “Unexpected” Reason Why The Fed Will Rush To Cut Rates As Soon As Possible“).

    But wait, as Englander himself admits, the 109K estimate of illegal aliens “may be an underestimate since undocumented immigrants often have limited access to benefits, so they may be heavily motivated to find employment. The GDP impact might be lower if these workers are less educated and face language barriers in the work force.”

    Here, Englander – who did not do the Birth/Death analysis – writes that if one excludes these illegal immigrant workers, “NFP may be running at c.125k per month” and adds that “such a pace is not recession but is hardly boom time and represents a moderate underlying pace of labor demand. It should make the 231k FY24 pace of headline NFP less worrisome to the FOMC. FOMC participants might be less hawkish if the impact of undocumented immigrants on NFP was well estimated and understood.”

    Of course, if the Std Chartered analyst were to factor for the true collapse in Birth-Death adjustments discussed yesterday by Bloomberg…

    … the real number would be, well, zero!

    While the political reason behind the propaganda misrepresentation of the US jobs market is simple: after all, in an election year it is imperative that the Biden economy be portrayed as glowingly as possible, even if it means lying about everything, the cascading consequences from this fabrication are staggering. As Englander concedes, “this added labor supply also may have shifted trend employment and GDP growth, making it hard to gauge whether a strong NFP or even GDP number reflects supply or demand. If supply is driving upside surprises, the takeaway is more optimism that inflation will slow. If demand, the opposite. Soft economic data should be seen through the lens of added labor supply, while strong data releases are ambiguous.”

    Taking a closer look, such increased labor supply – from illegals – should put downward pressure on wage growth relative to a baseline with less immigration (documented or not). In measures such as average hourly earnings, the disinflationary impact would be two-fold:

    1. lower wages overall from an increase of labour supply relative to labour demand and
    2. a composition effect because the undocumented immigrants often work in low wage industries even with EADs.

    However, this is likely to be a gradual process, so the low wage impact may not be immediately visible. In addition, insofar as these workers’ wages reflect relatively low productivity, the composition effect on wages will be offset by a composition effect on productivity – unit labour cost growth may be unchanged.

    These observations notwithstanding, one can assume that the contribution of undocumented immigrants to employment is unlikely to change any time soon. Indeed, over the last 12 months an average of 280k undocumented immigrants per month have been encountered nationally, most whom can or will be eligible to work legally in coming months. The same methodology suggests that these workers contributed about one-third of FY23 employment growth.

    It gets worse.

    The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that in fiscal 2023 a further 860k individuals crossed the border without contact with US immigration authorities. While these people are not eligible for EADs they may still work off the books or with fake or borrowed documents. As such, their output and spending will show up in GDP, although it is unlikely that much if any of their “labor input” is captured. These, along with others (tourists who overstay visas, students whose visas have expired, etc.) are technically undocumented as well. But since few are eligible for EADs, it is unlikely that they are captured in any BLS survey.

    In any event, Englander estimates that over 800k undocumented immigrants found jobs in FY23, and assumes that 64.2% of EAD recipients (the average for the foreign-born population) are working. However, the employment rate may well be higher since these are likely to be “very motivated” workers, since they are not generally eligible for unemployment insurance and other benefits, so work is a necessity for many.

    Ssing this calculation, and since Nonfarm Payrolls grew 3.1 million in FY23, the 800k would represent more than 25% of NFP growth.

    But what about those record numbers of multiple job-holders we have also discussed.

    Ah yes, to address that Englander next calculates an augmented version of NFP that includes agricultural workers, self- and family-employed workers from the household survey (CPS), and subtracts multiple-job holders. By this measure employment grew 2.7 million (this is largely due to a rise in multiple-job holders, which are subtracted to avoid double counting). So far in FY24, on average over 170k undocumented immigrants have received EAD approvals every month and c.109k have found work based on employment rates. And since NFP has averaged 230k per month, these workers likely accounted for around half of job growth. Again, this number excludes the roughly 100k per month addition coming from birth/death calculation distortions which will soon be revised away as Bloomberg’s chief economist Anna Wong calculated, before concluding that “by the end of the year the printed level of nonfarm-payrolls for 2024 likely will overstate true employment by at least one million.”

    Again, this means that when stripping away the 100K in statistical “jobs” from the 230K monthly payroll number, and then removing the 109K in illegal alien workers, the number of jobs added by ordinary, legal, native-born, Americans in the past year has been – more or less – zero.

    We, for one, can’t wait for Joe Biden to explain how this was remotely possible during his upcoming debate with Trump in three weeks time.

    Much more in the full must-read note – especially to those who will be prepping Donald Trump for his upcoming debate – from Englander available to pro subscribers in the usual place.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 06/06/2024 – 19:25

  • Washington Preparing To Punish Maldives For Banning Israeli Passport Holders
    Washington Preparing To Punish Maldives For Banning Israeli Passport Holders

    US lawmakers are outraged at the Maldives for its recent decision to ban Israeli passport holders from entering the country due to war crimes connected with Israel’s controversial military operations in Gaza.

    The Indian Ocean archipelago state is known for its luxury resorts and high-end travel in scenic, paradise beach locations. The president’s office announced Sunday that the cabinet is moving to update national entry laws in order to bar Israeli passport holders’ entry.

    NurPhoto via Getty Images

    But US Congress members are working punish the Maldives over the controversial move, with Representative Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) drafting legislation that could slash all aid to the Muslim-majority nation.

    Gottheimer, who has long been known as a staunch and outspoken supporter of Israel, is “working with colleagues in both parties on the bill, which will be called the Protecting Allied Travel Here (PATH) Act,” according to Axios.

    The law would condition US aid to the Maldives based on lifting its travel ban. This would in effect be a form of sanctions as it would bar current aid.

    “Taxpayer dollars shouldn’t be sent to a foreign nation that has banned all Israeli citizens from traveling to their country,” Gottheimer said in a statement.

    He added: “Not only is Israel one of our greatest democratic allies, but the Maldives’ unprecedented travel ban is nothing but a blatant act of Jew-hatred. They shouldn’t get a cent of American dollars until they reverse course.”

    But the government of the Maldives has presented its anti-Israel policies as “in solidarity with Palestinians”. Already in December the country imposed a docking ban, disallowing Israeli ships from using its ports.

    Maldives’ President Mohamed Muizzu, via AFP

    The Times of Israel has previously noted that “Nearly 11,000 Israelis visited the country last year, accounting for 0.6 percent of the Maldives’ foreign tourist arrivals.”

    There are 27 other Muslim-majority countries in the world which currently have a ban on Israeli passport holders – many of them located in the Middle East and North Africa.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 06/06/2024 – 19:20

  • Overwhelming Majority Of Small Business Owners Afraid Of Biden's Economy; New Poll Finds
    Overwhelming Majority Of Small Business Owners Afraid Of Biden’s Economy; New Poll Finds

    Authored by Eric Lundrum via American Greatness,

    A new survey reveals that over two-thirds of small business owners are terrified of the state of the economy under Joe Biden’s watch, fearing that current conditions and ongoing downward trends will lead to them having to close their businesses.

    As reported by the Daily Caller, the poll from the Job Creators Network Foundation (JCNF) shows that 67% of small business owners maintain such fears about the economy as it stands today, marking a 10-point increase from sentiments two years ago. In the same poll, participants’ perceptions of economic conditions for their own businesses fell from 70.2 to 68.1. Perception of national conditions fell even more drastically, from 53.2 to 50.4.

    In addition to the ongoing economic woes, small business owners also feel overwhelmingly impacted by the rise of crime. In the same survey, 44% of business owners say that crime has gone up in their area. The respondents who were most likely to say crime has increased in their area are the business owners generating less than $100,000 per year, at 55%. Those who generate over $1 million in revenue were less likely to say crime has increased.

    Inflation also remains a top concern for business owners, with 49% ranking inflation as the top issue in May, compared to 48% in March. Overall inflation remains stubbornly high, coming in at 3.4% in April. The inflation rate has consistently remained above 3% since Joe Biden first took office.

    “Small businesses are more vulnerable to high taxes and costly regulatory environments compared to their large corporate counterparts,” said Elaine Parker, president of the JCNF.

    “That’s why it’s no surprise that 26% of small businesses say they’ve considered relocating to a different state or city to chase more favorable tax rates and escape government red tape. This is an opportunity for free-market minded governors to continue making their states stand out from the crowd by implementing pro-growth policy reforms that will ignite Main Street.”

    Forbes estimates that at least 46% of all employees in the United States, around 61.6 million people in total, are employed by small businesses.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 06/06/2024 – 18:55

  • Ukraine Bans Dual Citizens From Escaping War, US Embassy Warns
    Ukraine Bans Dual Citizens From Escaping War, US Embassy Warns

    The US Embassy in Ukraine this week issued a surreal and somewhat unexpected warning: US-Ukrainian dual citizens may be prevented from leaving Ukraine under the country’s new mobilization law.

    As a result of martial law which took effect after the February 2022 invasion, Ukrainian males ages 18 to 60 are not allowed the leave the country. But until now there were exceptions for dual US-Ukrainian nationals; however, a fresh update in the national law means Americans can now be rounded up by conscription officers and potentially thrown to the front lines.

    “The US Embassy in Kyiv understands that, effective June 1, Ukraine has eliminated a ‘residence abroad’ exception that previously allowed certain Ukrainian males aged 18 to 60 to depart the country. After this change, US-Ukrainian dual citizens, including those who live in the United States, may no longer be able to depart the country,” the US Embassy announced Tuesday.

    Via Kyiv Post

    This is essentially the government of Ukraine also saying that it doesn’t recognize dual citizenship. 

    While outlining the change in policy, coming amid growing desperation of Kiev authorities to tap new manpower, the US State Department is apparently going to stand back and let it happen.

    The Embassy explained in its message that it is “limited in our ability to influence Ukrainian law, including the application of martial law and the mobilization law to Ukrainian citizens.” …So the US is “limited” in its “influence” at a moment American taxpayers are pouring billions into the Zelensky government’s coffers.

    Amazingly, the embassy alert further advises all dual US-Ukrainian nationals still in the country to “shelter in place and obey all local orders.”

    The Embassy added: “If you are not currently in Ukraine, we strongly recommend against all travel to Ukraine by US citizen males aged 18 to 60 who also have Ukrainian citizenship or a claim to Ukrainian citizenship and who do not wish to stay in Ukraine indefinitely. There is an extremely high risk you will not be allowed to depart, even with a US passport.”

    As for the severe manpower crisis among Ukraine armed forces, the Washington Post recently highlighted that combat commanders say newly-mobilized soldiers are arriving at the front lines so poorly-trained and clueless that they can’t even disassemble their weapons,

    One soldier described his basic training as “complete nonsense… everything is learned on the spot [at the front lines].” An officer who’d trained recruits said their rifle training was limited to just 20 rounds per soldier. 

    Videos have long circulated of recruitment officers grabbling young men caught in public for conscription…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    At this point it seems the military is simply grabbing any man it can, and soon even Americans (dual citizens) caught walking Ukraine’s streets. Ukraine’s military is fairing so poorly in places like Kharkiv oblast that young men fear that being sent to front line positions is basically a death sentence.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 06/06/2024 – 18:30

  • 334 Michiganders Registered To Vote After Their Deaths, Group Tells Court
    334 Michiganders Registered To Vote After Their Deaths, Group Tells Court

    Authored by Steven Kovac via The Epoch Times,

    “Whether by mistake or fraud,” 334 deceased Michigan registrants are listed on government records as registering to vote after their date of death, according to a recent filing in the federal Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals by the Public Interest Legal Foundation (PILF).

    Nearly four years ago, the PILF discovered 27,000 names of likely deceased registrants on the state’s Qualified Voter File (QVF).

    The group asked Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, a Democrat, about her plan to remove them.

    In this screenshot from the livestream of the 2020 Democratic National Convention, Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson addresses delegates on Aug. 20, 2020. (DNCC via Getty Images)

    They gave Ms. Benson over one year to act or, at a minimum, make available for public inspection a detailed plan of action for canceling the voter registrations of the dead. She did neither.

    According to the PILF filing, Michigan election officials were “unresponsive to specific, sound data provided by the Foundation” regarding the deceased registrants, many of whom had been on the QVF for decades.

    “Secretary Benson is vigorously opposing efforts to remove tens of thousands of deceased registrants we found on the voter roll,” said PILF President J. Christian Adams in a May 29 press release.

    “Federal law requires state election officials to have a reasonable program to remove the dead. Keeping dead voters on the rolls for two decades isn’t reasonable. This case will have significant implications for whether effective maintenance is required by federal law,”

    Auditor General Confirmed Numbers

    In 2021, the Michigan Auditor General’s office conducted what it called “a death match for active voters in the QVF.”

    The match yielded the names of between “twenty and thirty thousand” deceased registrants on the voter rolls.

    A three-and-a-half-year legal battle ensued, beginning with the PILF filing a two-point complaint in the federal district court alleging that Ms. Benson failed to conduct list maintenance and failed to allow inspection of public records concerning her plan to remove the deceased, and other data.

    On March 1, 2024, the district court entered a summary judgment rejecting both of PILF’s points, which led the foundation to take the case to the federal Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals.

    In announcing its victory in the district court, the Michigan Department of State issued a statement on March 2 calling the PILF’s efforts “a thinly veiled attempt to undermine voters’ faith in their voice, their vote, and our democracy.”

    According to the PILF filing, the appeal presents questions of “first impression for this Court and raises issues of national importance regarding the interpretation of the National Voter Registration Act.”

    In law, a first impression is a new legal issue or interpretation that is brought before a court.

    The NVRA of 1993 (known as “Motor Voter”) requires states to “conduct a general program that makes a reasonable effort to remove the name of ineligible voters” due to death.

    PILF lawyers contend that the exact meaning of the phrase “reasonable effort” has not been addressed by the Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals or any court within that court’s jurisdiction since the law’s enactment in 1993.

    The district court concluded that whatever Ms. Benson is doing to clean up and maintain the voter rolls constitutes a reasonable effort and, therefore, found that she complied with the NVRA requirement.

    The PILF asserts that an ineffectual, mistake-ridden, voter list maintenance program that allows between 20,000 and 30,000 dead people to remain on the QVF for decades should not be considered reasonable.

    According to the PILF, merely having a nominal voter roll maintenance program in place is not enough to satisfy the NVRA.

    What matters to the intent of Congress is “whether the Secretary effectively follows the list maintenance statutes and procedures,” the appeal said. “The Secretary seeks to evade scrutiny by relying on something labeled a ‘program’ to remove deceased registrants, no matter how ineffective.”

    Discovery Limited, Depositions Denied

    Also, according to the PILF appeal, the district court erred by granting Ms. Benson’s request for summary judgment without the secretary of state being deposed by the plaintiff.

    Earlier, Ms. Benson convinced a court magistrate that she was too busy to sit for the deposition and obtained a protective court order to block the process.

    The appeal stated that PILF was not only denied the ability to depose Ms. Benson but also could not depose an SOS employee who conducted voter list analysis, and the Electronic Registration Information Center (ERIC), upon which Michigan and about two dozen other states rely for data identifying ineligible voters.

    The district court order required the PILF to first show defects in ERIC’s process of identifying deceased voters before having the opportunity to learn what those processes and procedures were through deposition.

    “These denials of discovery should be reversed so the complete picture and truth about the Secretary’s list maintenance programs can be ascertained,” the appeal brief said.

    Because of the danger of recurring injury, the PILF appeal stated that a permanent prospective injunction to compel Ms. Benson to comply with her responsibilities under the NVRA would be warranted.

    PILF attorneys stressed the importance of timely compliance before another federal election takes place.

    The PILF asked the appeals court to reverse the district court and render judgment that Secretary Benson violated the NVRA’s Public Disclosure Provision, or to remand that claim to the district court for reconsideration.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 06/06/2024 – 18:05

  • La Nina Will Complicate Things For Biden Ahead Of Elections As Hurricanes Threaten Oil Refineries
    La Nina Will Complicate Things For Biden Ahead Of Elections As Hurricanes Threaten Oil Refineries

    The Biden administration must now contend with the La Nina weather phenomenon, which is expected to fuel an active Atlantic hurricane season. These storms could potentially disrupt major US Gulf Coast refineries, driving average gasoline prices at the pump to the politically sensitive $4 a gallon mark ahead of the November presidential elections. 

    News last month of the Department of Energy planning to release a million barrels of gasoline from reserves held in the Northeast ahead of the Fourth of July holiday and summer driving season shows just how concerned Democrats in the White House are about elevated inflation as their election odds falter. 

    According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, La Nina conditions indicate reduced wind shear in the Alantic Basin, which promotes more tropical development in the Caribbean Sea. 

    “The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have above-normal activity due to a confluence of factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation,” NOAA wrote in a recent update. 

    Here’s a breakdown of NOAA’s hurricane season forecast: 

    • NOAA predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

    • There’s a 10% chance of a near-normal season.

    • There’s a 5% chance of a below-normal season.

    • The forecast includes 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher).

    • 8 to 13 of these storms are expected to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher).

    • 4 to 7 of the hurricanes may become major hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).

    • Forecasters have 70% confidence in this range

    Given the context that La Nina is set to produce a more active hurricane season, Goldman analysts are now focusing on the potential refinery impacts of these storms and what this could potentially mean for gasoline prices at the pump.

    Goldman’s Callum Bruce’s base case is that gasoline pump prices average around $3.3/gallon through October.

    Bruce estimates pump prices in October could jump to the politically sensitive level of nearly $4 if the hurricane season is super active. If the season is calm, prices drop to $3.2.

    Here’s more from the report:

    This fall’s hurricane season, focused around August-October, but spilling modestly into July and November, may therefore be unusually important for the upcoming US Presidential election.

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, issuing a record high forecast for storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes in its May outlook. The midpoint of its stated forecast ranges for each category is 100-200% of their historical averages (Exhibit 3).

    Hurricanes have the potential to cause significant disruptions to US Gulf Coast refining capacity, where c.50% of US capacity lies. Most hurricanes that hit the refining centers on the Gulf Coast will take out 0.5-2.5 mb/d of refining capacity temporarily. Hurricane disruptions in the top quartile of events will take out more than 1mb/d of capacity for over a month. While these impacts are mostly temporary, large disruptions can leave c.10% of the peak disrupted capacity offline for a more extended period of time (Exhibit 4).

    Wholesale gasoline refining margins have the potential to spike around these events (Exhibit 5), by $5/bbl or more, depending on the exact path of the hurricanes. Gasoline prices tend to be most volatile as – unlike distillate – the US is a net importer, and resupply is much further away.

    The price impact tends to dissipate relatively quickly, however, as refining capacity returns relatively rapidly. In addition, there can be significant negative impacts on demand from the poor weather and flooding. We find that large USGC hurricanes disrupt 100 kb/d of demand on average in the affected months, and closer to 300 kb/d for the largest. Evacuations provide only a modest offsetting boost (<25 kb/d).

    Diesel margins meanwhile benefit more sustainably as demand is only modestly impacted (<50 kb/d) as reconstruction and rescue efforts support consumption (Exhibit 6).

    Nevertheless, retail gasoline prices can remain supported for longer as retailers are slow to lower prices after the initial spike, allowing marketing margins to expand. Despite normalized wholesale gasoline margins within a month, the top quartile of hurricane disruptions saw retail gasoline margins $0.20/gal higher over the following couple of months. The largest hurricanes have the capacity to raise these retail prices by almost $0.50/gal at their peak over this time period (Exhibit 7).

    This may be amplified by a normalisation in current very low speculative positioning in refined products – 10th-20th percentile across refined products. Our prior research has found a c.$5/bbl impact on wholesale refined product margins simply from positioning normalisation, equating to around c.$0.10/gal at the retail level.

    A significant hurricane disruption combined with a normalisation in positioning could therefore lift Oct-24 retail gasoline prices by $0.2-0.5/gal above our baseline forecasts over the full month (Exhibit 8). An extreme disruption would therefore take US retail gasoline prices to $4/gal, potentially leading to a spike in media coverage. However, retail prices would drop to $3.2/gal if crude prices are flat and disruptions are avoided.

    Queue up more SPR gasoline dumps if the active hurricane season takes out a refinery or two, as the administration will do everything in its power to prevent pump prices from hitting $4 before the elections.

    So who wins?

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Mother Nature or elderly Biden?

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 06/06/2024 – 17:40

  • School To Use Remote Tracking Wristbands On Children
    School To Use Remote Tracking Wristbands On Children

    Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

    A school in Switzerland has controversially announced it will trial tracking wristbands on children to keep tabs on their location.

    As highlighted by Remix News, Swiss outlet Neue Zürcher Zeitung reports that the Letten after-school care centre in Birmensdorf will require kids to wear the Bluetooth tech at all times during care hours unless parents specifically opt out.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The wristbands will track the wearers, with staff being alerted should a pupil wander outside the sanctioned location without prior authorisation.

    The justification given for the tracking is that the number of children in the facility is always changing and that it is necessary to provide “high quality care.”

    The report also notes that “important individual information about food intolerances” can be stored in the system for the children to make check-in at lunch easier.

    The report notes that the tracking system was developed by the head of the education centre, Joel Giger, as part of a start-up called Companion.

    Theo school administrators stated “Birmensdorf school can gain new insights through the pilot project and at the same time offer the company the opportunity to test the product together with specialists on-site as part of the pilot project.”

    Sounds like the guy is using school kids as Guinea pigs for his big brother surveillance side hustle.

    Swiss cantonal data protection authority spokesman Hans Peter Waltisberg notes that “a permanent localization of pupils does not seem necessary for the care of children.”

    “It should be examined whether a Bluetooth wristband is the appropriate means of localization. For example, the fact that a wristband can also be removed must be taken into account,” he added.

    Similar technology is used to literally keep tabs on parolees or convicts released on the proviso of good behaviour.

    If the educational centre wants to become known as the school that treats children like prisoners it’s going about it the right way.

    *  *  *

    Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 06/06/2024 – 17:15

  • "It's Mind-Boggling": Los Angeles Hit With Surge Of Fire Hydrant Thefts
    “It’s Mind-Boggling”: Los Angeles Hit With Surge Of Fire Hydrant Thefts

    Just when you think the Democrats’ socialist utopia state of California can’t possibly sink any higher (sic), it does just that: first it was catalytic converters, now it’s fire hydrants.

    According to CBS News, a California state water company has responded to a growing frenzy of fire hydrant thefts in Los Angeles by installing locked shields to cover the bolts on hydrants to stop thieves.

    Golden State Water Company, which owns and operates the fire hydrants, says thefts now happen daily, especially in South Los Angeles, which is one of the impoverished communities where thefts are extremely high, with two of the most recent believed to have happened last Thursday without neighbors even realizing it.

    “It’s mind-boggling that someone would just come into a neighborhood and just steal a fire hydrant,” neighbor Krystail Cousins said. “You’re now putting a whole neighborhood in danger.”

    And yet that is precisely what Krystail’s predominantly minority neighbors have been engaged in.

    The water company’s Southwest District general manager, Kate Nutting, said as the hydrants are made of iron and brass, she believes they are being sold on the black market for scrap metal.

    “Since the beginning of 2023, we’ve had over 300 hydrants stolen, and it’s been ramping up in 2024 which is why we’ve been taking even more aggressive measures to try to stop it”, Nutting said. “We’re really alarmed about this happening. It is a big public safety issue.”

    The measures the company has taken include welding hydrants to block access to the bolts, Nutting said. But thieves have continued, with methods including ramming hydrants with vehicles or using specialized tools to remove metal parts.

    “In some cases, they are very persistent in getting those parts out,” Nutting said.

    Many of the thefts have occurred in the communities of Florence-Graham, Willowbrook and West Rancho Dominguez, as well as eastern Gardena near the 110 Freeway.

    Sometimes, thieves have unscrewed bolts to remove hydrants. Other times, they’ve used a vehicle to knock the hydrant loose. Those targeting the hydrants have often used a shutoff valve before dislodging them. But on several occasions, they’ve left water gushing.

    The company has been sending out replacements typically the same day they are reported stolen, each one costing about $3,500. It’s not clear what their value is on the black market. The total cost of all the stolen hydrants has amounted to over a $1.2 million loss, the company said.

    Missing hydrants are also a safety risk, as it impedes fire-fighting capabilities and the water company said it can potentially compromise the water system’s ability to deliver safe and reliable drinking water. The L.A. County Fire Department said the thefts pose a threat to public safety.

    “Fire hydrants are crucial in providing a reliable water source for firefighting operations, and their absence can hamper rescue efforts and lead to delays extinguishing fires,” the department said in an email.

    Experts agree that small delays in fighting fires can be pivotal. Venkatesh Kodur, a professor and director of Michigan State University’s Center on Structural Fire Engineering and Diagnostics, said the best opportunity to knock down a blaze, particularly a house fire, is within the first five to 10 minutes, when damage is still minimal.

    Typically after 15 minutes, he said, “the damage and the fire grows almost exponentially … and every second is important.”

    Kodur said if the work of fighting a fire is hindered by a missing hydrant, the flames can spread more easily. And although the thieves may be lured by the payday, Kodur said, the fact is that brass, copper and steel don’t fetch very much money.

    “These are people selling these metals to scrap dealers for peanuts,” Kodur said.

    Yet “peanuts” is precisely what the desperate locals will do anything for at a time when the scourge that is “Bidenomics” has left them beyond broke.

    Golden State Water wants to remind thieves that tampering with fire hydrants is a federal crime; then again gun sales in Chicago are “illegal” which has shockingly failed to stop local minorities from mass exterminating each other at a record pace in recent years.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 06/06/2024 – 16:50

  • What's Next For Battlefield America? Israel's High-Tech Military Tactics Point The Way
    What’s Next For Battlefield America? Israel’s High-Tech Military Tactics Point The Way

    Authored by John & Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    “I did not know Israel was capturing or recording my face. [But Israel has] been watching us for years from the sky with their drones. They have been watching us gardening and going to schools and kissing our wives. I feel like I have been watched for so long.”

    – Mosab Abu Toha, Palestinian poet

    If you want a glimpse of the next stage of America’s transformation into a police state, look no further than how Israel – a long-time recipient of hundreds of billions of dollars in foreign aid from the U.S. – uses its high-tech military tactics, surveillance and weaponry to advance its authoritarian agenda.

    Military checkpoints. Wall-to-wall mass surveillance. Predictive policing. Aerial surveillance that tracks your movements wherever you go and whatever you do. AI-powered facial recognition and biometric programs carried out with the knowledge or consent of those targeted by it. Cyber-intelligence. Detention centers. Brutal interrogation tactics. Weaponized drones. Combat robots.

    We’ve already seen many of these military tactics and technologies deployed on American soil and used against the populace, especially along the border regions, a testament to the heavy influence Israel’s military-industrial complex has had on U.S. policing.

    Indeed, Israel has become one of the largest developers and exporters of military weapons and technologies of oppression worldwide.

    Journalist Antony Loewenstein has warned that Pegasus, one of Israel’s most invasive pieces of spyware, which allows any government or military intelligence or police department to spy on someone’s phone and get all the information from that phone, has become a favorite tool of oppressive regimes around the world. The FBI and NYPD have also been recipients of the surveillance technology which promises to turn any “target’s smartphone into an intelligence gold mine.”

    Yet it’s not just military weapons that Israel is exporting. They’re also helping to transform local police agencies into extensions of the military.

    According to The Intercept, thousands of American law enforcement officers frequently travel for training to Israel, “one of the few countries where policing and militarism are even more deeply intertwined than they are here,” as part of an ongoing exchange program that largely flies under the radar of public scrutiny.

    A 2018 investigative report concluded that imported military techniques by way of these exchange programs that allow police to study in Israel have changed American policing for the worse. “Upon their return, U.S. law enforcement delegates implement practices learned from Israel’s use of invasive surveillance, blatant racial profiling, and repressive force against dissent,” the report states. “Rather than promoting security for all, these programs facilitate an exchange of methods in state violence and control that endanger us all.”

    “At the very least,” notes journalist Matthew Petti, “visits to Israel have helped American police justify more snooping on citizens and stricter secrecy. Critics also assert that Israeli training encourages excessive force.”

    Petti documents how the NYPD set up a permanent liaison office in Israel in the wake of 9/11, eventually implementing “one of the first post-9/11 counterterrorism programs that explicitly followed the Israeli model. In 2002, the NYPD tasked a secret ‘Demographics Unit’ with spying on Muslim-American communities. Dedicated ‘mosque crawlers’ infiltrated local Muslim congregations and attempted to bait worshippers with talk of violent revolution.”

    That was merely the start of American police forces being trained in martial law by foreign nations under the guise of national security theater. It has all been downhill from there.

    As Alex Vitale, a sociology professor who has studied the rise of global policing, explains, “The focus of this training is on riot suppression, counterinsurgency, and counterterrorism—all of which are essentially irrelevant or should be irrelevant to the vast majority of police departments. They shouldn’t be suppressing protest, they shouldn’t be engaging in counterinsurgency, and almost none of them face any real threat from terrorism.”

    This ongoing transformation of the American homeland into a techno-battlefield tracks unnervingly with the dystopian cinematic visions of Steven Spielberg’s Minority Report and Neill Blomkamp’s Elysium, both of which are set 30 years from now, in the year 2054.

    In Minority Report, police agencies harvest intelligence from widespread surveillance, behavior prediction technologies, data mining, precognitive technology, and neighborhood and family snitch programs in order to capture would-be criminals before they can do any damage.

    While Blomkamp’s Elysium acts as a vehicle to raise concerns about immigration, access to healthcare, worker’s rights, and socioeconomic stratification, what was most striking was its eerie depiction of how the government will employ technologies such as drones, tasers and biometric scanners to track, target and control the populace, especially dissidents.

    With Israel in the driver’s seat and Minority Report and Elysium on the horizon, it’s not so far-fetched to imagine how the American police state will use these emerging technologies to lock down the populace, root out dissidents, and ostensibly establish an “open-air prison” with disconcerting similarities to Israel’s technological occupation of present-day Palestine.

    For those who insist that such things are celluloid fantasies with no connection to the present, we offer the following as a warning of the totalitarian future at our doorsteps.

    Facial Recognition

    Fiction: One of the most jarring scenes in Elysium occurs towards the beginning of the film, when the protagonist Max Da Costa waits to board a bus on his way to work. While standing in line, Max is approached by two large robotic police officers, who quickly scan Max’s biometrics, cross-check his data against government files, and identify him as a former convict in need of close inspection. They demand to search his bag, a request which Max resists, insisting that there is nothing for them to see. The robotic cops respond by manhandling Max, throwing him to the ground, and breaking his arm with a police baton. After determining that Max poses no threat, they leave him on the ground and continue their patrol. Likewise, in Minority Report, police use holographic data screens, city-wide surveillance cameras, dimensional maps and database feeds to monitor the movements of its citizens and preemptively target suspects for interrogation and containment.

    Fact: We now find ourselves in the unenviable position of being monitored, managed, corralled and controlled by technologies that answer to government and corporate rulers. This is exactly how Palestinian poet and New Yorker contributor Mosab Abu Toha found himself, within minutes of passing through an Israeli military checkpoint in Gaza with his wife and children in tow, asked to step out line, only to be blindfolded, handcuffed, interrogated, then imprisoned in an Israeli detention center for two days, beaten and further interrogated. Toha was finally released in what Israeli soldiers chalked up to a “mistake,” yet there was no mistaking the AI-powered facial recognition technology that was used to pull him out of line, identify him, and label him (erroneously) as a person of interest.

    Drones

    Fiction: In another Elysium scene, Max is hunted by four drones while attempting to elude the authorities. The drones, equipped with x-ray cameras, biometric readers, scanners and weapons, are able to scan whole neighborhoods, identify individuals from a distance—even through buildings, report their findings back to police handlers, pursue a suspect, and target them with tasers and an array of lethal weapons.

    Fact: Drones, some deceptively small and yet powerful enough to capture the facial expressions of people hundreds of feet below them, have ushered in a new age of surveillance. Not even those indoors, in the privacy of their homes, will be safe from these aerial spies, which can be equipped with technology capable of peering through walls. In addition to their surveillance capabilities, drones can also be equipped with automatic weapons, grenade launchers, tear gas, and tasers.

    Biometric scanners and national IDs

    Fiction: Throughout Elysium, citizens are identified, sorted and dealt with by way of various scanning devices that read their biometrics—irises, DNA, etc.—as well as their national ID numbers, imprinted by a laser into their skin. In this way, citizens are tracked, counted, and classified. Likewise, in Minority Report, tiny sensory-guided spider robots converge on a suspected would-be criminal, scan his biometric data and feed it into a central government database. The end result is that there is nowhere to run and nowhere to hide to escape the government’s all-seeing eyes.

    Fact: Given the vast troves of data that various world governments, including Israel and the U.S., is collecting on its citizens and non-citizens alike, we are not far from a future where there is nowhere to run and nowhere to hide. In fact, between the facial recognition technology being handed out to law enforcement, license plate readers being installed on police cruisers, local police creating DNA databases by extracting DNA from non-criminals, including the victims of crimes, and police collecting more and more biometric data such as iris scans, we are approaching the end of anonymity. It won’t be long before police officers will be able to pull up a full biography on any given person instantaneously, including their family and medical history, bank accounts, and personal peccadilloes. It’s already moving in that direction in more authoritarian regimes.

    Predictive Policing

    Fiction: In Minority Report, John Anderton, Chief of the Department of Pre-Crime, finds himself identified as the next would-be criminal and targeted for preemptive measures by the very technology that he relies on for his predictive policing. Consequently, Anderton finds himself not only attempting to prove his innocence but forced to take drastic measures in order to avoid capture in a surveillance state that uses biometric data and sophisticated computer networks to track its citizens.

    Fact: Precrime, which aims to prevent crimes before they happen, has justified the use of widespread surveillance, behavior prediction technologies, data mining, precognitive technology, and snitch programs. As political science professor Anwar Mhajne documents, Israel has used all of these tools in its military engagements with Palestine: deploying AI surveillance and predictive policing systems in Palestinian territories; utilizing facial recognition technology to monitor and regulate the movement of Palestinians; subjecting Palestinians to facial recognition scans at checkpoints, with a color-coded mechanism to dictate who should be allowed to proceed, subjected to further questioning, or detained.

    Making the Leap from Fiction to Reality

    When Aldous Huxley wrote Brave New World in 1931, he was convinced that there was “still plenty of time” before his dystopian vision became a nightmare reality. It wasn’t long, however, before he realized that his prophecies were coming true far sooner than he had imagined.

    Israel’s military influence on the United States, its advances in technological weaponry, and its rigid demand for compliance are pushing us towards a world in chains.

    Through its oppressive use of surveillance technology, Israel has erected the world’s first open-air prison, and in the process, has made itself a model for the United States.

    What we cannot afford to overlook, however, is the extent to which the American Police State is taking its cues from Israel.

    As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, we may not be an occupied territory, but that does not make the electronic concentration camp being erected around us any less of a prison.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 06/06/2024 – 16:25

  • Market Pancakes As Nvidia Gamma Squeeze Fizzles, Attention Turns To Jobs, Global Easing Cycle
    Market Pancakes As Nvidia Gamma Squeeze Fizzles, Attention Turns To Jobs, Global Easing Cycle

    After yesterday’s breathless Nvidia-led meltup, which saw the AI chipmaker surpass both $3 trillion in market cap and Apple’s valuation, today’s session was a boring affair by comparison, which saw the S&P close unchanged after a day in which the index barely moved.

    There were three reasons behind the lack of action.

    First, technicals.  As Goldman’s Brian Garrett notes, ES 5350 is the “magnetized” strike, with $9.5 billion of gamma – a record amount – to trade per 100bps; This means that dealers have to sell 35,000 eminis on a 1% rally, and buy 35,000 eminis on a 1% sell off. Said otherwise, the record dealer gamma is now preventing spoos from moving too far, too fast in either direction from 5350.

    Second, tech momentum died. After yesterday’s remarkable gamma squeeze in NVDA, which saw near calls explode as if the underlying was some penny stock and not a $3 trillion behemoth…

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    … an early morning “rugging” of NVDA – which saw the stock lose $175 billion in market cap just seconds after the cash close as call holders liquidated positions – crushed momentum and made sure the stunning gamma squeeze would quietly fade away.

    As a result, NVDA was unable to hold on to its brand new position as the world’s 2nd most valuable company, and promptly relinquished that – and the $3 trillion market cap threshold – back to AAPL, if only for the day. Tomorrow is another day when the pre-10:1 stock split bulls will try to make NVDA the world’s biggest stock, ahead of Monday.

    Third, event risk. tomorrow we get a key jobs report, now that payrolls are once again more important than inflation, and as Goldman pointed out earlier today dealers are the longest spot gamma in history, but net short the upside tail. This means that nobody is too crazy to place big directional bets ahead of a print which could see momentum ignited in either direction depending on how the NFP print comes.

    Incidentally, Goldman believes that the set up into the print remains favorable for stocks, with a goldilocks NFP zone in the low 100s as stocks continue to cheer for a palatable slowdown). We think Big Data measures indicate a below-normal pace of job creation during the spring hiring season, and our layoff tracker has rebounded. Street is looking for a headline reading of +185k (GIR +160k, prior +175k

    And while today was boring, with little newsflow besides the latest twit from Roaring Kitty who sent GameStock soaring more than 40% just because he announced he would have a youtube livestream tomorrow at noon…

    … another historic event quietly took place when the ECB became only the second G7 bank to cut rates – after a 5 year hiatus …

    … even as the central bank raised (!) its inflation forecasts…

    … guaranteeing that any pretense of a 2% inflation target is dead and buried, something which wasn’t lost on gold and silver, both of which have soared ever since Canada cut rates first yesterday…

    … nor was it lost on oil which has recovered a big chunk of its latest losses.

    The only asset class which remained completely clueless to the return of central bank easing was – ironically – crypto, with both bitcoin and especially ethereum dumping even though traditionally they have been the best early indicators of shifting liquidity and volatility conditions. Today however, manipulation from the Jane Streets of the world and other HFT momentum igniters overcame any nascent recent bullishness…

    … which will guarantee that the army of bitcoin ETF buyers – who now own 1 million bitcoin among them, leaving less than 20 million available – will just have another cheap entry point.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 06/06/2024 – 16:01

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Jun 06

Today’s News 6th June 2024

  • Mass Immigration & Decline In Security Intrinsically-Linked, Say Majority Of French
    Mass Immigration & Decline In Security Intrinsically-Linked, Say Majority Of French

    Authored by Thomas Brooke via ReMix News,

    The vast majority of French citizens, including many on the left, believe the growing feeling of insecurity across the country and mass immigration are intrinsically linked, new polling has revealed.

    According to a poll conducted by CSA for CNews, Europe 1, and JDD, 68 percent of respondents see a correlation between immigration and the rise in delinquency in France.

    The link is widely recognized among right-wing voters, with 94 percent of Republican supporters and 93 percent of those aligned with the National Rally acknowledging such a link. However, a significant minority of those who support pro-immigration left-wing parties also share this concern.

    A total of 43 percent of Socialist Party supporters, 38 percent of La France Insoumise (LFI) voters, and 34 percent of Green supporters share the view that high immigration is destabilizing France’s security.

    The link is also widely accepted by voters of French President Emmanuel Macron’s governing Renaissance party, with 68 percent of his supporters agreeing there is a link.

    Women are more likely than men to agree that immigration is affecting national security, with 70 percent of females agreeing with the statement compared to 67 percent of males.

    Similarly, older people view mass immigration less favorably, with 76 percent of those aged 50 and over acknowledging its negative effect on the country, although a majority in every age bracket concurs with that view.

    Immigration is a leading issue in France ahead of the European elections taking place later this week and a topic right-wing politicians like Marine Le Pen, Jordan Bardella, and Éric Zemmour are campaigning hard on.

    Le Pen and Bardella’s National Rally is expected to dominate the elections and emerge as France’s largest party in the European Parliament, suggesting its hardline approach to mass immigration is resonating with the electorate.

    The party’s successes have led to a tactical shift from previous establishment parties, including the center-right Republicans. When asked recently about the links between mass immigration and national insecurity, former French President Nicolas Sarkozy replied, “Who can seriously say that there aren’t any? This does not naturally mean that a foreigner is a delinquent. But of course, the link is obvious.”

    “The number of foreigners in our prisons and the part they take in delinquency in general are clear. To deny it is nothing more than a new denial of reality,” he added.

    Last August, President Macron said the country needed to “reduce immigration significantly, starting with illegal immigration,” warning the current arrival rate was “not sustainable.”

    This followed remarks by Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin a year prior revealing that half of criminal acts in the largest French cities are committed by foreign nationals.

    Polling conducted in December last year showed French citizens remained disillusioned with the government’s open-door immigration policy, with 80 percent of respondents supporting a ban on immigration and nearly two-thirds backing a referendum on the issue.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 06/06/2024 – 02:00

  • 21 Attorneys General Demand Revisions To Law School Admissions Standards
    21 Attorneys General Demand Revisions To Law School Admissions Standards

    Authored by Chase Smith via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Tennessee Attorney General Jonathan Skrmetti. (Courtesy of Jonathan Skrmetti)

    Tennessee Attorney General Jonathan Skrmetti and attorneys general from 20 other states have called for significant revisions to the American Bar Association’s (ABA)  Standards and Rules of Procedure for the Approval of Law Schools.

    The attorneys general claim in a letter that ABA standards direct law school administrators to violate both the Constitution and Title VII of the Civil Rights Act, which prohibit employment discrimination based on race, color, religion, sex, and national origin.

    Their demand comes in response to the Supreme Court’s 2023 decision in Students for Fair Admissions, Inc. v. President & Fellows of Harvard College (SFFA), which ended the use of so-called affirmative action in higher education.

    “The rule of law cannot long survive if the organization that accredits legal education requires every American law school to ignore the Constitution and civil rights law,” Mr. Skrmetti said in a press release announcing the action.

    “The American Bar Association has long pursued the high calling of promoting respect for the law and the integrity of the legal profession, and we call on the organization to recommit to those ideals and ensure that its standards for law schools comport with federal law.

    “If the standards continue to insist on treating students and faculty differently based on the color of their skin, they will burden every law school in America with punitive civil rights litigation.”

    The coalition of attorneys general emphasized that the ABA’s current Standard 206 on Diversity and Inclusion is incompatible with the Supreme Court’s ruling.

    They argue that Standard 206, as it stands, not only encourages but mandates law schools to engage in race-based admissions and hiring practices, which the Court has deemed unconstitutional.

    Supreme Court’s Landmark Decision

    The Supreme Court’s decision in Students for Fair Admissions was a watershed moment, declaring that the use of race in the admissions processes of Harvard and the University of North Carolina violated the Fourteenth Amendment’s Equal Protection Clause.

    The Court stated unequivocally that racial classifications, regardless of their intent, must meet the “daunting” strict-scrutiny standard, which race-based affirmative action programs in higher education cannot satisfy.

    The ruling underscored that educational institutions cannot use race as a factor in affording educational opportunities, stressing that any attempt to indirectly achieve race-focused outcomes through ostensibly neutral policies would still warrant strict scrutiny.

    This decision necessitates that all educational policies be genuinely race-neutral, aligning with the principle that eliminating racial discrimination means eliminating all forms of it.

    Criticism of ABA Standard 206

    Standard 206 of the ABA Standards and Rules of Procedure for Approval of Law Schools requires law schools to demonstrate a commitment to diversity and inclusion by providing opportunities for underrepresented groups, particularly racial and ethnic minorities, and to maintain a student body and faculty diverse in gender, race, and ethnicity.

    The attorneys general argue that this standard compels law schools to consider race in both admissions and employment, directly contradicting the Supreme Court’s directive.

    The letter highlights the problematic nature of Standard 206’s mandate for “concrete action” toward achieving racial diversity, which the attorneys general contend cannot be fulfilled without engaging in unconstitutional race-based practices.

    They say that neither the standard nor its interpretations provide guidance on how to achieve diversity goals without unlawfully using race as a factor, thereby setting law schools up for potential legal challenges.

    Proposed Revisions Insufficient

    The attorneys general also critique the ABA’s proposed revisions to Standard 206, which aim to broaden the diversity criteria to include various identity characteristics.

    They argue that bundling race with other characteristics does not address the fundamental constitutional issues raised by the Supreme Court’s decision.

    The proposed revisions, they assert, still implicitly require law schools to consider race, thus failing to bring the standard into compliance with federal law.

    The letter calls for clarity and alignment with the Constitution, urging the ABA to ensure that complying with binding nondiscrimination laws does not jeopardize a law school’s accreditation.

    The attorneys general stress that the current and revised standards force law schools into a precarious position, balancing between adhering to federal law and meeting the ABA’s accreditation requirements, which could lead to significant legal and operational repercussions.

    The coalition of attorneys general, led by Mr. Skrmetti, argues for the ABA to revise its diversity standards in a manner that fully complies with the Supreme Court’s ruling and federal law.

    They warn that without such revisions, law schools may face punitive civil-rights litigation and risk perpetuating a culture of legal and ethical ambiguity that could undermine the profession and the nation.

    States joining Tennessee in the letter to the ABA were Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, and Virginia.

    The Epoch Times reached out for comment from the ABA.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/05/2024 – 23:20

  • ECB Preview And Scenario Analysis: The First Rate Cut Since 2019
    ECB Preview And Scenario Analysis: The First Rate Cut Since 2019

    Hot on the heels of the first G7 central bank rate cut this cycle, when the BOC cut rates by 25bps this morning, tomorrow the ECB is widely expected to follow suit and lower the deposit rate from 4.00% to 3.75% for the first time since September 2019, with markets assigning a 94% chance to this outcome. With a rate cut effectively guaranteed (absent some shock) focus will be on hints over future rate cuts, with markets not fully pricing in another move until December. Changes to staff projections are likely to be minimal. In their preview, Bank of America strategists agree that a 25bps rate cut is coming, and expect “a lot more to come by mid-2025.” That said, guidance for a meeting-by-meeting approach and data dependence probably won’t change. Small forecast revisions higher to 2024/25 are likely, but 2% core inflation in 2026 should stay, providing a soft signal to a September cut, data permitting.

    In rates markets, a cut by the European Central Bank on Thursday is already fully baked into the curve, with forward pricing nearly 25bp. But as ING Economics notes, it’s the outlook beyond June that is still open, despite communication from officials having started to move out the curve. A back-to-back cut in July is deemed unlikely, with markets attaching only a roughly 10% chance to that scenario. A second cut is almost fully priced by October, but it’s a third cut this year that is hanging in the balance. The pricing further out the curve is also influenced by drivers from abroad: weaker US data as well as sliding oil prices have also helped push rates lower in the eurozone. While EUR markets have been leaning towards a three-cut scenario for this year again, the domestic data on negotiated wages and the latest CPI print over the past weeks would argue for a more hawkish line at the upcoming meeting.

    Therefore, there is room for markets to reprice higher – but in the end, they will oscillate around the two or three-cuts scenario for now unless we get more evidence from the data. This will also spill out into the longer end of the curve, but here the factors from abroad should be felt even more with the US jobs data looming large. This will then determine whether we can get above 2.6% more lastingly in the 10Y Bund yield on a hawkish ECB.

    Courtesy of Newsquawk, here are some other key considerations ahead of the ECB’s first rate cut in five years:

    PRIOR MEETING: As expected, the ECB opted to stand pat on rates once again. The policy statement reaffirmed guidance that rates will be kept sufficiently restrictive for sufficiently long. Furthermore, policymakers will continue to follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach and will not pre-commit to a particular rate path. That being said, and what was a new inclusion for the statement, it was noted that if the Governing Council was to gain further confidence that inflation is converging to the target in a sustained manner, it would be appropriate to reduce the current level of monetary policy restriction. In the follow-up press conference, when questioned about a potential rate cut in June, Lagarde reiterated that the ECB will have a lot more data by the time of the June meeting. In terms of the unanimity of the announcement, Lagarde stated that “a few” dissenters felt “sufficiently confident” about altering policy at the meeting, however, they ultimately rallied around the consensus. This could potentially be in-fitting with source reporting in the wake of the previous meeting which suggested some policymakers floated the idea of a second cut in July to win over a small group still pushing for an April start.

    RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS: In terms of developments since the prior meeting, inflation in May rose to 2.6% from 2.4% with the super-core measure increasing to 2.9% from 2.7% with some of the increases related to base effects. The ECB’s consumer expectations survey for April saw the 12-month inflation forecast nudge lower to 2.9% from 3.0%. For market gauges, the 5y5y forward has ticked marginally higher from 2.35% to 2.36%. Elsewhere, Q1 Eurozone wages rose to 4.69% from 4.45% with the release followed up by an ECB blog stating that “wage growth reflects multiyear adjustment and wage pressures look set to decelerate in 2024”. From a growth perspective, Q1 GDP came in at 0.3% Q/Q vs. prev. 0.0%, whilst more timely survey data showed the EZ-composite PMI moved further into expansionary territory (52.3 vs. prev. 51.7) thanks to a pick up in the manufacturing sector. The accompanying report noted “considering the PMI numbers in our GDP nowcast, the Eurozone will probably grow at a rate of 0.3% during the second quarter, putting aside the spectre of recession”. Elsewhere, the EZ unemployment rate sits at a historic low of 6.4%.

    RECENT COMMUNICATIONS: Rhetoric since the April meeting has seen President Lagarde remark that the ECB will cut rates soon, barring any major surprises, whilst she is “really confident” that they have inflation under control. Chief Economist Lane noted that keeping rates overly restrictive for too long could push inflation below target in the medium-term which would require corrective action. Furthermore, he notes that the ECB thinks inflation over the coming months will bounce around at the current level and then will see another phase of disinflation bringing them back to the target later next year. Thought-leader Schnabel of Germany remarked that some elements of inflation are proving persistent and would caution against moving too fast on rates. At the hawkish end of the spectrum, Austria’s Holzmann has tried to make the case for pausing the July meeting, whilst Netherland’s Knot has stated that projection round meetings will be the key for interest rate decisions. For the doves, Italy’s Panetta commented that the ECB must weigh risk of monetary policy becoming too tight, adding that timely and small rate cuts would counter weak demand, whilst Greece’s Stournaras is of the view that three rate cuts are more likely this year.

    RATES: Expectations are for the ECB to lower the deposit rate for the first time since September 2019. Analysts are unanimous in their view that the deposit rate will be lowered from 4.0% to 3.75% with markets assigning a roughly 94% chance of such an outcome. With a 25bps cut so widely expected, the fight on the GC between the hawks and doves will be what comes thereafter with the former likely to make the case for pausing on rates in July given potential emerging upside risks to inflation, whilst the latter is set to argue that keeping policy too tight could push inflation below target. As such, any tweaks to the policy statement, hinting at further action will be of note to the market. Accordingly, focus for the release will be on how pricing beyond June evolves with the next rate cut thereafter not fully priced until December (total of 56bps of cuts seen by year-end). However, ING cautions that given the data dependency of the Bank, this debate is unlikely to be resolved in June.

    MACRO PROJECTIONS: For the accompanying macro projections, ING notes that since the prior forecast round in March, oil prices have risen (from roughly USD 75/bbl at the time), which would be pro-inflationary. However, offsetting this, is the more hawkish market curve which sees around 113bps of cuts by the end of 2025 vs. around 150bps in March. Overall, the bank expects “a slight upward revision of growth and inflation for this year but no changes to the profile and the timing of inflation dropping below 2%”. That being said, economists at the Bank note “the risks of inflation remaining sticky and not being entirely under control are increasing”.

    March staff projections

    HICP INFLATION:

    • 2024: 2.3% (exp. 2.4%)
    • 2025: 2.0% (exp. 2.1%)
    • 2026: 1.9% (exp. 2.0%)

    HICP CORE INFLATION (EX-ENERGY & FOOD):

    • 2024: 2.6%
    • 2025: 2.1%
    • 2026: 2.0%

    GDP:

    • 2024: 0.6% (exp. 0.7%)
    • 2025: 1.5% (exp. 1.4%)
    • 2026: 1.6% (exp. 1.4%)

    Finally, courtesy of ING, here is a scenario analysis laying out how to position for the various alternatives:

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/05/2024 – 22:52

  • "Biden Knew": Hunter, James Biden Slapped With Criminal Referrals Over "Influence Peddling Schemes"
    “Biden Knew”: Hunter, James Biden Slapped With Criminal Referrals Over “Influence Peddling Schemes”

    House Republicans have referred Hunter and James Biden to the DOJ for criminal prosecution, accusing the pair of making false statements to Congress amidst an ongoing impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden.

    The criminal referrals, which were formalized on Monday, culminate from seven months of investigative work by three House committees. The probe alleges an extensive influence peddling operation involving the president’s family, linking millions of dollars in international business deals to potentially corrupt figures and entities, including those connected to the Chinese Communist Party.

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    “Our investigation has revealed President Biden knew about, participated in, and benefitted from his family cashing in on the Biden name around the world,” said Rep. James Comer (R-KY), Chairman of the House Oversight Committee. Comer and Rep. Jim Jordan of the House Oversight Committee, as well as Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith, suggested multiple charges including perjury for Hunter Biden.

    “Despite this record of evidence, President Biden continues to lie to the American people about his involvement in these influence peddling schemes. It appears making false statements runs in the Biden family. We’ve caught President Biden’s son and brother making blatant lies to Congress in what appears to be a concerted effort to hide Joe Biden’s involvement in his family’s schemes,” reads the referral.

    As Just the News reports further, the chairmen identified three instances in which they believe Hunter Biden lied to the committee.

    • “[F]alsely distanced himself from” one of his companies, Rosemont Seneca Bohai, LLC, and its bank account that received millions for foreign entities and individuals. Despite this, that bank account transferred funds to him from those foreign sources.
    • Making false statements about holding a position at that same company. Documents released after the first son’s testimony show he signed a document identifying himself as corporate secretary of the enterprise.
    • Misrepresented a text conversation with Chinese company executive “Zhao” with whom he invoked his father’s presence in a threatening text message. Biden claimed he mistakenly messaged the wrong person, however messages released by one of the committees show he continued to speak with that same executive days afterward.

    The committee also argue presidential brother James Biden lied in his deposition by:

    • Saying he did not meet with Hunter Biden business partner Tony Bobulinski while the group pursued a deal with CEFC China Energy.

    “Lying to Congress is a serious crime with serious consequences,” said Jordan. “Hunter and James Biden did just that. They lied to coverup President Biden’s involvement in their family’s international influence peddling schemes that have generated millions of dollars. These criminal referrals are a reflection of criminal wrongdoing by the Biden family, and the Department of Justice must take steps to hold the Bidens accountable.”

    We’re sure Merrick Garland will get right on it!

     

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/05/2024 – 22:30

  • Cognitive Warfare, Mental Manipulation, & Tyranny Of Digital Transformation
    Cognitive Warfare, Mental Manipulation, & Tyranny Of Digital Transformation

    Authored by Jesse Smith via Global Research,

    A centuries-old plan to control humanity on a micro-level is being enforced through the construction of a new bio-digital prison system. Relegated to mere conspiracy theory by legacy media and vehemently denied by accused conspirators, the plan continues unabated with only pockets of resistance — nowhere near enough to bring the house of cards down.

    The plan has been identified by many throughout the decades. It is both simple and complex; subtle yet overt; ancient yet contemporary; and alluring yet appalling. Under the guise of safety, convenience, and inclusion, humanity is being primed to accept complete and total surveillance as a condition of simple existence in a “brave new world.”

    That’s the plan in a nutshell. What follows are the gory details.

    The Era of Cognitive Warfare

    To accelerate the paradigm shift toward total surveillance, cognitive warfare (CW) – a significant upgrade over mere psyops of the past – has been declared on the global population. The purpose of this war is to modify human thought, belief, behavior, and identity. According to a 2021 NATO report, cognitive warfare is defined as (emphasis added throughout):

    “a combined arms approach that integrates the non-kinetic warfare capabilities of cyber, information, psychological and social engineering in order to win without physical fighting. It is a new type of warfare defined as the weaponization of public opinion by external entities. This is carried out for the purpose of influencing and/or destabilizing a nation.”

    A separate NATO report from 2022 adds that cognitive warfare is:

    “…the most advanced form of human mental manipulation, to date, permitting influence over individual or collective behavior, with the goal of obtaining a tactical or strategic advantage. …the human brain becomes the battlefield. The pursued objective is to influence not only what the targets think, but also the way they think and, ultimately, the way they act.”

    The U.S. Naval Institute has also recognized the need for a cognitive warfare strategy, stating:

    “…An individual’s cognition is now a target. Advances in cognitive psychology and information communication technology (ICT) enable actors to target individuals’ situational comprehension and will with precision. In light of these changes, cognitive warfare (CW) has emerged as a new war-fighting concept…

    Cognitive warfare operations will take on many forms and unfold along varying timelines. Some may focus on reinforcing groups’ or individuals’ existing ideals, while others may seek to disrupt cohesion or accepted beliefs. The U.S. approach to CW, however, must uphold U.S. values.”

    Adding that technologies like machine learning and brain-computer interfaces (BCI) boost the efficiency of cognitive warfare, the Geneva Center for Security Policy (GCSP), a frequent NATO collaborator, further opined that:

    “Current and future developments in artificial intelligence (AI), cognitive sciences, neurotechnologies, and other related fields will further increase the risks of mass manipulation and lead to the possibility of the militarization of the mind as the battlefield of the future… The resulting environment is one of “permanent latent struggles” rather than a clearly delineated state of peace and war. This state has been referred to as “new generational warfare”, “unpeace” or conflict in the “noosphere”.

    To summarize what cognitive warfare entails, I offer the following definition:

    the weaponization of public opinion, manipulation and militarization of the human mind, and engineering of individual and collective behavior resulting in permanent new generation warfare, “unpeace,” and conflict in the “noosphere.”

    Wait, what on earth is the noosphere? Unfamiliar to most, the noosphere is a concept advanced largely by Pierre Teilhard de Chardin, a 20th century Jesuit priest who fused together elements of biblical doctrine, evolution, and mysticism. Teilhard conceived the noosphere as a realm where human minds interacted through increasingly complex social networks. He theorized that the evolving noosphere would eventually reach an “Omega Point,” where the total convergence of collective human consciousness would unify with the “Cosmic Christ.” These teachings were deemed heretical by the Catholic church and Teilhard was publicly denounced. However, his posthumous writings have influenced scores of scientists, futurists, environmentalists, globalists, occultists, new agers, and ironically many Catholics.

    One of Teilhard’s most revealing statements undergirding his philosophy is found in his book Christianity and Evolution, where he wrote: “What I am proposing to do is to narrow that gap between pantheism and Christianity by bringing out what one might call the Christian soul of Pantheism or the pantheist aspect of Christianity.” (p. 56)

    It is Teilhard’s pantheistic views that endear him to the scientific and Big Tech communities. They took up the mantle of advancing the noosphere through technologies like the Internet and social media, hoping humanity would realize Teilhard’s vision. It is this writer’s contention that the supreme goal of CW and the digital revolution is to turn Teilhard’s Omega Point from theory into reality.

    Creating a Collective Human Consciousness

    “The noosphere’s evolution involved the scale of human groups as well as the nature of the information networks that connected humans and technologies of all sorts… With each new information technology, the shared knowledge contained in the collective consciousness of the Noosphere grew, and the rate of its growth accelerated.” [source]

    NATO’s 2021 report indicated that neuroscientific warfare techniques can be used to destabilize “a political leader, a military commander, an entire staff, a population, or an Alliance…” As a result, governments and militaries from many nations are working feverishly to combat the threat mind wars pose to citizens and nations. Their alleged goals are to maintain trust in democratic values and processes while simultaneously implementing greater controls on the flow of information. Paradoxically, they are attempting to maintain (the illusion of) freedom, while authorizing new forms of digitized censorship “for the greater good.”

    What is really taking place is a game of bait and switch where citizens are told that due to the proliferation of misinformation, disinformation, hate speech, identity theft, deep fakes, and cyber-attacks, greater control is needed to police the digital public square. Add in the so-called threat of climate change, financial collapse, war, the energy crisis, future pandemics, and you have what the United Nations (UN) and World Economic Forum (WEF) deem a “polycrisis.” Tools such as artificial intelligence (AI), Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), biometric surveillance, and digital ID, have emerged as the “solutions” to these problems.

    Whether the evolving bio-digital surveillance paradigm is called the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR), Great Reset, Agenda 2030, or Humanity 2.0, what’s common is the belief that bigger and better tech can transform society “for good” and combat issues of mistrust, corruption, crime, and planetary destruction. However, realizing this utopian vision requires greater levels of transparency, control, conformity, and collective thought. To successfully manipulate the public into either full acceptance or forced submission of this paradigm, the twin brothers of tyranny – surveillance and censorship – have been invoked.

    Klaus Schwab, former Executive Chairman of the WEF, spoke about this new world where privacy is “severely restricted” in a 2013 interview, mentioning:

    Everything is transparent, whether we like it or not. This is unstoppable. If we behave acceptably, and have nothing to hide, it won’t be a problem. The only question is, who determines what is acceptable.”

    In a 2016 interview with Radio Television Suisse, Schwab elaborated further on transparency, stating, “In the new world, you have to accept total transparency. It will become part of your personality… Everything will be transparent. If you have nothing to hide you have no reason to be afraid.”

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    It’s easy to highlight statements from Schwab given his notoriety as a globalist boogeyman. Perhaps this is one of the reasons for his recent withdrawal as the WEF’s front man? Regardless, Schwab is just one of many who champion surveillance technologies to complete the transition to the new world order of total transparency. In iHuman, a documentary on AI, data scientist and Stanford Professor Michal Kosinski echoes Schwab’s convictions regarding the current state of privacy, declaring:

    Of course people should have rights to their privacy when it comes to sexual orientation or political views. But I’m also afraid that in our current technological environment this is essentially impossible. People should realize there is no going back, there’s no running away from the algorithms. The sooner we accept the inevitable and inconvenient truth that privacy is gone, the sooner we can start actually thinking about how to make sure our societies are ready for the post-privacy age.” (emphasis added)

    Once an imagined dystopia but now quickly becoming reality, omnipresent bio-digital surveillance creates an inescapable societal panopticon. The “new world” Schwab refers to is being steered by the technocratic elite running all governments, corporations, NGOs, universities, medicine, and media.

    Publicly, the surveillance society is sold as a way to bring order to a chaotic world splintered politically, racially, economically, socially, and ideologically. Privately, it is recognized as an iterative way to forge collective human consciousness as we march toward the transhumanist vision of “Singularity,” or as Teilhard would claim, the “Omega Point.”

    As this push accelerates, companies like Palantir, Amazon, and Clearview AI along with Big Brother government agencies like NSA, DHS, CIA, and the FBI continue to amass enormous amounts of data containing essentially all activity occurring in the digital space.

    Smart technology and the Internet of Things (IoT) bring the all-seeing eye of technocratic overlords into the private spaces of a growing number of residences and businesses. Backdoors in software and cyber-crime offer access to huge amounts of data believed to be private and protected, but often sold to the highest bidder. Microsoft is upping the ante on personal surveillance. With its new AI-assisted Windows Recall feature that takes screenshots of everything you do on your computer, the PC transforms into an open book recalling your entire life. Could a backdoor allow for the AI algorithm to transmit all private data back to Microsoft and its spook agency partners in real time?

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    As I’ve written previously, Internet of Bodies devices exist to monitor and transmit all personal data to the Internet. This industry is now broadening to include an Internet of Brains, where “human brains connect to the Internet to facilitate direct brain-to-brain communication and enable access to online data networks.” The military-intelligence complex has been conducting experiments on the human brain for a long time. The CIA’s MK-Ultra and the White House’s Brain Initiative are just two examples revealing the government’s longing to hack the brain and create a hivemind society where thoughts and actions can be directly controlled through technology and/or mind-altering substances.

    The company behind both reports connecting bodies and brains to the Internet is the RAND Corporation. RAND’s first president, H. Rowan Gaither, declared his goal to be “a society where technocrats ruled using objective analysis.” Author Alex Abella, who wrote the definitive book on RAND, expounded on their technocratic goals, saying:

    RAND’s ultimate goal was to have technocrats running every aspect of society in pursuit of a one world government that would be administered under “the rule of reason,” a ruthless world where efficiency was king and men were little more than machines, which is why RAND studied the social sciences because they were at a loss to work out how to deal with people and how human beings did not always act in their own predictable self-interests.”

    RAND was an early pioneer of cognitive warfare having invented the Delphi Technique for the U.S. Department of Defense during the Cold War. It was originally used to forecast the impact of technology on warfare. It soon became a tool used to fool citizens into thinking their opinions were being used to shape public policy. However, policy makers had already predetermined the course of action. Officials skillfully used the Delphi Technique to steer the decision-making process, making it seem as if the citizens agreed with them.

    RAND has certainly done its part in forging collective consciousness and building the technocratic new world order. Its website openly boasts that “satellites, systems analysis, computing, the Internet – almost all the defining features of the Information Age were shaped in part at RAND.”

    AI, Biometrics and Digital ID – Tools of Freedom or Tyranny?

    “I’ve often said that digital inclusion is extremely important. I think the 21st century’s infrastructure is mobility, broader than cloud. I don’t think it should matter where you are born, where you come from or who you are. You should be part of our society, and to be part of our society, you actually need to be digitally included.”– Hans Vestberg, Chief Executive Officer of Verizon

    In the papers quoted previously on cognitive warfare, malicious manipulation of digital technology is viewed as a heinous crime that must be stopped at all costs. However, it can be argued that cognitive warfare has been perpetuated against the entire world population through the process of digitization itself.

    The Digital Revolution (aka the Information Age or Third Industrial Revolution) transitioned the world from analog and mechanical devices to the digital technology of today. This Third Industrial Revolution is now giving way to the 4IR, where the ultimate goal is to merge man with machines. This futurist archetype denigrates humanity to mere bits of data – ripe for control and manipulation by the data owners.

    Humans once widely considered God’s crowning achievement – reflecting the very image of the Creator of all things – are now being transitioned through self-directed evolution to forge a new identity by becoming one with technology. Venture into any public space and it’s likely you’ll see most people transfixed by their smartphones, oblivious to real humans nearby. But this revolution, largely mainstreamed by Steve Jobs and Apple, was just the beginning. The complete transition requires the unholy trinity of AI, biometrics, and digital ID, to serve as a temporary global brain until humanity reaches the imagined transcendence where godhood itself is achieved.

    AI is simultaneously being heralded as the greatest human achievement ever and excoriated as the greatest threat to human survival. Filmmaker Tonje Hessen Schei unveiled both perspectives in her documentary iHuman. Two of the most eye-opening statements occur within the film’s first ten minutes.

    We are made of data. Every one of us is made of data – in terms of how we behave, how we talk, how we love, what we do every day. So, computer scientists are developing deep learning algorithms that can learn to identify, classify, and predict patterns within massive amounts of data. We are facing a form of precision surveillance, you could call it algorithmic surveillance, and it means that you cannot go unrecognized. You are always under the watch of algorithms.” – Eleonore Pauwels, United Nations University

    Almost all the AI development on the planet today is done by a handful of big technology companies or by a few large governments. If we look at what AI is mostly being develop for, I would say it’s killing, spying, and brainwashing… We have military AI, we have a whole surveillance apparatus being built using AI by major governments, and we have an advertising industry which is oriented toward recognizing what ads to try to sell to someone.”

    – Ben Goertzel, Chief Computer Scientist, Hanson Robotics

    AI has come a long way since the film’s release in 2020, and Big Tech leaders and investors such as Sam Altman, Elon Musk, and Peter Diamandis offer a more positive outlook. Some of the good AI is being used for includes detecting deadly weapons, diagnosing life-threatening health problems, protecting biodiversity, and improving access to nutrients and water. Another “good” outcome according to Musk is that “probably none of us will have a job” and instead will have to rely on “universal high income,” a fantasy unlikely to come true. To top it off, he predicts humans will be relegated to “giving AI meaning” while man’s meaning fades away.

    When asked how humans will navigate our identity as AI continues to expand, Ray Kurzweil, futurist and Google director of engineering, said: “It’s going to be merged with us. We already carry around a lot of digital intelligence today and that’s actually how this will be manifest, merging it with ourselves.” During this same event, Peter Diamandis, XPrize Foundation and Singularity University founder, discussed meshing our minds together into a “hive consciousness,” a concept he refers to as “Meta-Intelligence.”

    Can both outlooks regarding the future of AI be true? One describes killing, brainwashing, and oppressive surveillance while the other forecasts planetary and individual problem solving and a glorious merger of man and machine. Are the positives being oversold to suspend doubts and fears regarding potential negative outcomes? Perhaps an examination of digital ID and biometrics can provide some clarity on which view is most accurate.

    One ID to Rule Them All

    Source: World Economic Forum

    The United Nations Agenda 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) play a prominent role in advancing global digital transformation. Each of the 17 SDGs functions as a roadmap to permanently restructuring a portion of society. All 193 UN member nations are in lockstep with the plan.

    SDG 16 – Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions says that “by 2030, [all countries must] provide legal identity for all, including birth registration” delivering the justification for digital IDs. SDG 1 – No Poverty, advocates for “digital IDs linked with bank or mobile money accounts” to “improve the delivery of social protection coverage and serve to better reach eligible beneficiaries.”

    According to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), further justification for digital legal IDs include:

    • Identifying the displaced – tracking population movements, facilitating swift access to essential information for each human being.

    • Using digital ID for registration – enabling the capture of disaggregated data by age, gender, disability, and income, offering insights into the diverse impacts of disasters on different groups.

    • Disaster preparedness and emergency management – storing valuable personal information, including residence and medical conditions and aid in identifying vulnerable populations and critical infrastructure.

    • Energy system sustainability and resilience – leveraging digital legal ID data to track energy consumption, inspire behavior change, and enhance sustainability measures can mitigate climate-related disasters.

    • Empowering communities – revolutionizing community participation in the energy sector by providing secure access to energy resources and enabling energy trading within community microgrids.

    On the surface, these reasons for digital ID seem legitimate and even noble. The UN and its government and NGO partners always sell the need for digital ID under the guise of:

    • fostering economic and social inclusion

    • tracking immigrants, migrants, and refugees

    • protecting against identity theft and financial fraud

    • simplifying access to government services

    • lessening exposure of personal information through cyber attacks

    • enhancing convenience

    • promoting information integrity

    • mitigating the climate and energy crises

    • reducing human error in identifying individuals

    • slowing human trafficking

    It’s hard to argue these are not altruistic goals. Nonetheless, digital IDs can also be used to:

    • employ 24/7 surveillance and data collection

    • restrict travel and access to goods and services

    • destroy privacy and online anonymity

    • restrict access to social media and Internet services

    • track compliance with medical dictates

    • control access to banking, public services, public spaces, entertainment venues, medical facilities, workplaces, schools, etc.

    • create a social credit system that ranks individuals based on government compliance

    • limit access to vital needs such as water, food, and energy

    • compromise a person’s identity through security breaches

    According to Comparitech, 50 countries already have fully digitized identification schemes, overlooking the dangers highlighted. The rest of the world is also hastily moving forward to create digital public infrastructure (DPI), where digital ID takes center stage. A few recent headlines attest to this urgency.

    Despite all the glowing promises from the UN, digital IDs threaten to give governments the ability to control a person’s life down to minute details. Brett Solomon, a digital human rights advocate and executive director of Access Now, agrees, mentioning that digital ID “poses one of the gravest risks to human rights of any technology…” He further adds that “we are rushing headlong into a future where new technologies will converge to make the risk much more severe.”

    Papers No Longer Needed – Just Your Face

    “If corporations and governments start harvesting our biometric data en masse, they can get to know us far better than we know ourselves, and they can then not just predict our feelings but also manipulate our feelings and sell us anything they want — be it a product or a politician. Biometric monitoring would make Cambridge Analytica’s data hacking tactics look like something from the Stone Age.” – Yuval Noah Harari

    One of the converging technologies increasing the threat from digital IDs is biometric identification. This rapidly growing field includes identifying humans through facial recognition, iris and retina scans, fingerprints, voice recognition, gestures, bodily implants, DNA matching, and gait (how humans walk and move).

    Even more frightening is the proposed use to detect:

    Facial recognition stands out as the most pervasive and perhaps most problematic biometric tactic. It is being used by law enforcement and border control, in medical facilities, retail stores, stadiums, airports, and government buildings. It’s utilized by banks and financial services, healthcare, and governments to verify identity. It is also a fundamental building block for the creation of smart cities.

    Each use case may provide benefits such as convenience and security but also poses risks that could exacerbate tyrannical control of the population. With technologies poised to detect emotion and mental state, a Minority Report-style precrime detection regime could be installed. But what happens to those who have been misidentified? What about those penalized for minor infractions like jaywalking or criticizing the government as exemplified in China’s social credit system?

    Digital ID and biometric technologies have been introduced as a technocratic panacea offering greater inclusivity, convenience, and safety. In reality, they reduce human identity to a sequence of cloud-stored data while enabling total surveillance of travel, economic activity, and health status with the potential to obliterate privacy and anonymity.

    I’m sure they exist, but I’ve never met anyone desiring a digital ID, especially after the autocratic fiasco of vaccine passports during the COVID era. According to a report by Iain Davis and Whitney Webb, this resistance is not imaginary, as they indicated “the rollout of CBDCs and the prerequisite digital ID has so far been a disaster for the regime. Regardless of the culture, people in India, China and elsewhere have shown a distinct lack of enthusiasm for embracing their planned digital future. In fact, they are actively resisting in many instances.”

    Australia is one country that faced staunch opposition to its digital ID plans. Though its digital ID system legislation was recently passed by Parliament, it did not go without resistance. In fact, concessions were made to those expressing concerns about privacy, biometric testing, and mandatory usage within the legislation. A recent Sky News video describes the extent of the resistance, echoing many of the concerns we have already presented.

    The cognitive warfare-op has been deliberately engineered to make ­people think there is a bottom-up demand for digital surveillance tools. Conversely, the demand is coming solely from the top through the United Nations, World Economic Forum, World Bank, G20, World Trade Organization, Rockefeller Foundation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Central Banks, Council on Foreign Relations, Better Identity Coalition, Apple, Google, Visa and Mastercard, ID2020, Digital Impact Alliance, Sovrin Foundation, Thales, Idemia, governments worldwide, and a host of private companies too numerous to mention.

    Digital ID can conceivably allow surveillance of everything one does and says online. With the overemphasis on mis- and disinformation, digital IDs can strengthen Big Tech and government’s ability to control speech. By censoring, deplatforming, and restricting access, ideas and speech deemed “hateful” or contrary to accepted narratives can be suppressed, erased, or prevented from ever appearing.

    One of the ways to dismiss concerns is by reassuring citizens that digital IDs will not become mandatory and that other forms of ID will still be accepted. However, these assurances seem unlikely to last given the billions of dollars being spent on digital ID efforts from governments and corporations worldwide. The switcheroo will probably occur sooner or later.

    A Freer, Decentralized or More Tightly Controlled World?

    “Government is the biggest threat to digital data anywhere around the world… What is national security? All a government needs to do to violate a person’s right to privacy is write a letter and cite national security.” – Solomon Okedara, Digital Rights Lawyers Initiative

    We have been constantly told that the digital genie unleashed can’t be put back in the bottle. Scientists, tech wizards, and bureaucrats are seizing opportunities to craft the future and stake their claim to the billions of dollars up for grabs in research, development, and deployment.

    There’s no doubt that some good may come from their efforts. As history has shown, whether technology is used for good or evil depends on the intent of those who possess and control it. The tools of digital transformation may benefit society, alleviating some of the frustrating, time-wasting processes we regularly engage in. But the potential for social, financial, and even mental control must not be disregarded. Freedom, liberty, and justice depend on eternal vigilance.

    Is it mere coincidence that bio-digital surveillance tech such as AI, digital ID, biometrics, CBDC, IoT, Smart Meters, and 5G all working together can achieve the societal vision described in The Technocracy Study Course of 1945? Is it also by chance that many of the UN SDGs mirror many elements outlined in this publication?

    Technocracy expert Patrick Wood doesn’t believe so, noting that:

    …technocrats demand that every single person in society be forced to participate in their system. Outliers were not to be allowed then, nor are they to be allowed today. Want proof? Look for the motto “Ensuring that no one is left behind” throughout the United Nations’ literature on sustainable development. Another word for “ensure” is “guarantee.” Globalists’ guarantees take the form of “mandates.” – Patrick Wood, The Evil Twins of Technocracy and Transhumanism (p. 68), Kindle Edition

    Going further, Wood adds that:

    According to The Technocracy Study Course, the anticipated and promised “end products” would be:

    1. A high physical standard of living

    2. A high standard of public health

    3. A minimum of unnecessary labor

    4. A minimum of wastage of non-replaceable resources

    5. An educational system to train the entire younger generation indiscriminately as regards all considerations other than inherent ability – a Continental system of human conditioning. (Ed. Note: human conditioning is not education but rather propaganda-style indoctrination.)

    Not surprisingly, these outcomes overlap perfectly with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) adopted at the 2030 Agenda conference in September 2015:

    • Goal #1 – No poverty

    • Goal #3 – Good health and well-being (the banner on Goal #3 states: “Vaccinate your family to protect them and improve public health”)

    • Goal #8 – Decent work and economic growth

    • Goal #12 – Responsible Consumption and Production

    • Goal #4 – Quality education

    Wood also exposes the supreme value of data to technocratic systems, disclosing that:

    To technocrats, there is no such thing as too much surveillance. When they attain one level of monitoring, their next step is to increase the level of magnification and collect even more data. Their addiction to data is unquenchable and unstoppable!” (p. 126)

    The bio-digital surveillance system of today certainly fits everything Wood highlights. It is akin to a modern-day techno Tower of Babel.

    Whether or not it’s desired, mankind is being pushed toward life in a digital world bereft of privacy, individuality, and agency. The apostles of AI, transhumanism, and bio-digital surveillance are coercing the populace into their collective consciousness paradigm. Using cognitive warfare techniques to implant their vision of transcendence – the Omega Point where man and machine join to become a new godlike creature – we have all been enlisted to join them on their journey. If the path to this imagined utopia begins with warfare, surveillance, and tyranny, it’s fair to question whether the feigned concept should even be pursued. If history is a good indicator, it is likely to end in massive failure and widespread human suffering.

    All the World’s a Stage – for Warfare

    At an event hosted by the Modern War Institute at West Point in 2018, neuroscientist Dr. James Giordano told cadets that:

    … the brain is and will be the 21st century battle scape in many ways, end of story… You will encounter some form of neurocognitive science that has been weaponized not only in your military career but in your personal and professional lives… The more I know about what makes you tick, the more my interactions can be geared with you to make you tick the way I want you to.”

    As early as 1928, propaganda pioneer Edward Bernays understood how mind control could keep the public in line, proclaiming:

    The conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the masses is an important element in democratic society. Those who manipulate this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country. We are governed, our minds are molded, our tastes formed, our ideas suggested, largely by men we have never heard of. …In almost every act of our daily lives, whether in the sphere of politics or business, in our social conduct or our ethical thinking, we are dominated by the relatively small number of persons…who understand the mental processes and social patterns of the masses. It is they who pull the wires which control the public mind.”

    Bernays may not have envisioned this form of manipulation and control could be miniaturized and replicated for all in a handheld device. There are ghosts in the machines we stare at while we work, inform, and entertain ourselves. These ghosts are directing a covert war against us, deliberately spreading mis-and disinformation to confound, persuade, and control our thoughts and actions. The U.S. Army has made this plain. We would do well to at least understand the nature of the offensive directed against us.

    As the cognitive war rages against each of us, compelling us to accept this paradigm or get left behind, tough decisions must be made, and tough questions must be asked.

    Will we buy into the scheme that equates humanity with mere machinery? Or will we realize that we’ve been awesomely and wonderfully made by a divine Creator?

    Will we participate in our own denigration, meekly complying with the selling of our data, invasion of our privacy, robbing of our wealth, and destruction of our freedom? Or will we resist the militarization of our minds by defying the technocratic tyrants?

    Will we say no to absolute transparency? Or will we keep our heads in the sand as privacy ebbs away into the ocean of bio-digital surveillance?

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/05/2024 – 22:05

  • Wall Street Admits The Biggest Economic Shocker: All Jobs In The Past Year Have Gone To Illegal Aliens
    Wall Street Admits The Biggest Economic Shocker: All Jobs In The Past Year Have Gone To Illegal Aliens

    For much of the past year we had been pounding the table on two very simple facts:  not only has the US labor market been appallingly weak, with most of the jobs “gained” in 2023 and meant to signal how strong the Biden “recovery” has been, about to be revised away (as first the Philly Fed and now Bloomberg both admit), but more shockingly, all the job growth in the past few years has gone to illegal aliens.

    We first pointed this out more than a year ago, and since then we have routinely repeated – again, again, and again – yet even though we made it abundantly clear what was happening…

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    … going so far as to point out the specific immigration loophole illegals were using to work in the US for up to 5 years…

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    … and even fact-checking the senile, ballot-harvesting White House occupant on multiple occasions…

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    … we were shocked that the topic of most if not all US jobs going to illegals was still not “the biggest political talking point” of all.

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    That’s about to change, however, because with just under 5 months left until the election, and with immigration by far the hottest political topic out there, others are finally starting to connect the dots we laid out more than a year ago.

    The first Wall Street analyst daring to point out that the employment emperor is naked, is Standard Chartered’s global head of macro, Steve Englander who in a note titled simply enough “Immigration leading to labor-market surge” (and available to pro subscribers in the usualk place), writes that according to his estimates “undocumented immigrants account for half of job growth in FY24 so far” (the actual number is far higher but we understand his initial conservatism), and adds that “asylum seekers and humanitarian parolees explain the surge in undocumented immigrants” before concluding that the continued rise in EAD approvals likely will extend strong employment growth in 2024. In other words, “strong employment growth” for American citizens, always was and remains a fabulation, and the only job growth in the US is for illegals, who will work for below minimum wage, which also explains why inflation hasn’t spiked in the past year as millions of illegals were hired.

    Below we excerpt from the Englander note because we hope that more economists, strategists and politicians will read it and grasp what we have been saying for over a year.

    Echoing what we have said for months, Englander writes that immigration, particularly illegal immigration, “is a political flashpoint that has also become an important factor in assessing economic performance. Detailed data from US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) suggest that half of non-farm payroll (NFP) growth to date for FY24 (started 1 October 2023) has been from undocumented immigrants who have received an Employment Authorization Document (EAD)” (he defines undocumented immigrants as those who entered the US through non-traditional immigration pathways, such as asylum seekers, parolees, and refugees).

    The ability to track EAD issuance to undocumented workers is an advantage in estimating how much they have contributed to employment growth. NFP counts workers with an EAD just like any other. Using that data, it is easy to estimate that undocumented workers have added 109k jobs per month to NFP out of the average 231k increase so far in FY24.

    Which is staggering since last night we showed that about 100K monthly jobs are purely statistical distortions, and the real pace of job growth in the past year has been around 130K.

    So if 100K jobs per month are fabricated birth/death artifacts (i.e., not real jobs but a statistically goalseeked fudge factor), and another 109K jobs per month are illegal aliens, that leaves just about 11K jobs for everyone else, i.e., law abiding Americans.

    It also means that the labor market in the US has – for the past year – been an absolute catastrophe and harbinger of economic disaster (and is why last night we pointed out “The “Unexpected” Reason Why The Fed Will Rush To Cut Rates As Soon As Possible“).

    But wait, as Englander himself admits, the 109K estimate of illegal aliens “may be an underestimate since undocumented immigrants often have limited access to benefits, so they may be heavily motivated to find employment. The GDP impact might be lower if these workers are less educated and face language barriers in the work force.”

    Here, Englander – who did not do the Birth/Death analysis – writes that if one excludes these illegal immigrant workers, “NFP may be running at c.125k per month” and adds that “such a pace is not recession but is hardly boom time and represents a moderate underlying pace of labor demand. It should make the 231k FY24 pace of headline NFP less worrisome to the FOMC. FOMC participants might be less hawkish if the impact of undocumented immigrants on NFP was well estimated and understood.”

    Of course, if the Std Chartered analyst were to factor for the true collapse in Birth-Death adjustments discussed yesterday by Bloomberg…

    … the real number would be, well, zero!

    While the political reason behind the propaganda misrepresentation of the US jobs market is simple: after all, in an election year it is imperative that the Biden economy be portrayed as glowingly as possible, even if it means lying about everything, the cascading consequences from this fabrication are staggering. As Englander concedes, “this added labor supply also may have shifted trend employment and GDP growth, making it hard to gauge whether a strong NFP or even GDP number reflects supply or demand. If supply is driving upside surprises, the takeaway is more optimism that inflation will slow. If demand, the opposite. Soft economic data should be seen through the lens of added labor supply, while strong data releases are ambiguous.”

    Taking a closer look, such increased labor supply – from illegals – should put downward pressure on wage growth relative to a baseline with less immigration (documented or not). In measures such as average hourly earnings, the disinflationary impact would be two-fold:

    1. lower wages overall from an increase of labour supply relative to labour demand and
    2. a composition effect because the undocumented immigrants often work in low wage industries even with EADs.

    However, this is likely to be a gradual process, so the low wage impact may not be immediately visible. In addition, insofar as these workers’ wages reflect relatively low productivity, the composition effect on wages will be offset by a composition effect on productivity – unit labour cost growth may be unchanged.

    These observations notwithstanding, one can assume that the contribution of undocumented immigrants to employment is unlikely to change any time soon. Indeed, over the last 12 months an average of 280k undocumented immigrants per month have been encountered nationally, most whom can or will be eligible to work legally in coming months. The same methodology suggests that these workers contributed about one-third of FY23 employment growth.

    It gets worse.

    The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that in fiscal 2023 a further 860k individuals crossed the border without contact with US immigration authorities. While these people are not eligible for EADs they may still work off the books or with fake or borrowed documents. As such, their output and spending will show up in GDP, although it is unlikely that much if any of their “labor input” is captured. These, along with others (tourists who overstay visas, students whose visas have expired, etc.) are technically undocumented as well. But since few are eligible for EADs, it is unlikely that they are captured in any BLS survey.

    In any event, Englander estimates that over 800k undocumented immigrants found jobs in FY23, and assumes that 64.2% of EAD recipients (the average for the foreign-born population) are working. However, the employment rate may well be higher since these are likely to be “very motivated” workers, since they are not generally eligible for unemployment insurance and other benefits, so work is a necessity for many.

    Ssing this calculation, and since Nonfarm Payrolls grew 3.1 million in FY23, the 800k would represent more than 25% of NFP growth.

    But what about those record numbers of multiple job-holders we have also discussed.

    Ah yes, to address that Englander next calculates an augmented version of NFP that includes agricultural workers, self- and family-employed workers from the household survey (CPS), and subtracts multiple-job holders. By this measure employment grew 2.7 million (this is largely due to a rise in multiple-job holders, which are subtracted to avoid double counting). So far in FY24, on average over 170k undocumented immigrants have received EAD approvals every month and c.109k have found work based on employment rates. And since NFP has averaged 230k per month, these workers likely accounted for around half of job growth. Again, this number excludes the roughly 100k per month addition coming from birth/death calculation distortions which will soon be revised away as Bloomberg’s chief economist Anna Wong calculated, before concluding that “by the end of the year the printed level of nonfarm-payrolls for 2024 likely will overstate true employment by at least one million.”

    Again, this means that when stripping away the 100K in statistical “jobs” from the 230K monthly payroll number, and then removing the 109K in illegal alien workers, the number of jobs added by ordinary, legal, native-born, Americans in the past year has been – more or less – zero.

    We, for one, can’t wait for Joe Biden to explain how this was remotely possible during his upcoming debate with Trump in three weeks time.

    Much more in the full must-read note – especially to those who will be prepping Donald Trump for his upcoming debate – from Englander available to pro subscribers in the usual place.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/05/2024 – 21:40

  • Renters And Owners Live In Separate Economies
    Renters And Owners Live In Separate Economies

    Commentary by Peter St Onge via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    (Rashevskyi Viacheslav/Shutterstock)

    It turns out renters and homeowners are living in two entirely different economies, at least according to a new study by the Federal Reserve—which, ironically enough, made it happen.

    In short, renters are in dire straits financially, while homeowners are “continuing to reap the rewards” of cheap pandemic money that left renters with nothing but inflation.

    This is “complicating” the Fed’s crystal ball as homeowners continue to splurge on everything from travel to eating out, “propping up prices with their discretionary spending power.”

    Of course, the Fed’s money printers are what are propping up prices. But the robust homeowner spending means they’re not seeing the distress.

    The Rich Get Richer, the Poor Get Inflation

    I mentioned in a recent article how the Fed money printer works by injecting new money into asset markets, which leaves the rich richer and the poor coping with inflation.

    That process goes on turbo when they crank up the money printers, which they did during the pandemic to the tune of $7 trillion fresh dollars—one in three.

    Hence the media’s favorite economic theme these days: why Americans can’t see the glory of Bidenomics. After all, if you’re a journalist at The New York Times, or an economics professor at Harvard, everybody at your dinner parties owns a home. They own stocks. They’re doing great, regaling one another with explanations of their investing acumen.

    Alas, the 90 percent aren’t at those dinner parties to regale. They can only speak in ballot boxes.

    Heaven at the Top, Hell at the Bottom

    In raw numbers, the Fed report finds that nearly one in five renters fell behind on their rent in the past year, while rents have soared by 20 percent since the pandemic—coming to nearly $400 for the average renter.

    Renters are more likely to not be able to pay the electric, water, or gas bill in the past month, and they report much higher rates of financial anxiety.

    This all might rankle when CNN lectures them about how amazing the economy is.

    It’s a whole other world for homeowners, who overwhelmingly refinanced during the pandemic at average rates around 3 percent, taking hundreds of thousands out of their Fed-pumped homes.

    They plowed a good chunk of that money into stocks, which also soared thanks to the Fed’s near-zero interest rates—the so-called everything bubble. Courtesy of the Fed.

    That means homeowners actually saved money compared with pre-pandemic. They had a larger mortgage, sure, but at 3 percent, the Fed actually lowered their monthly nut.

    When the smoke cleared, the money-printing orgy was a bonanza for the wealthy. And it was a cruel joke on everybody else, above all on the young stuck watching that ship sail further and further away, giving up on starting a family, instead returning to Mom’s basement to complain about capitalism.

    Conclusion

    The rule of thumb in Washington is that the rhetoric is for the middle and working class—voters—yet the policies are for the wealthy. Because the wealthy donate.

    This means that government policies are bedazzled in sweet nothings about the less fortunate or, these days, the under-represented. But when the music stops, somehow the poor don’t get a thing; it is the wealthy who got the goodies.

    The solution’s easy: Get the government out of the economy. End the Fed, drain the swamp.

    Of course, they’ll fight that with everything they’ve got.

    Originally published on the author’s Substack, reposted from the Brownstone Institute
    Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/05/2024 – 21:15

  • Gunman Captured After Attack, Lengthy Shootout At US Embassy In Beirut
    Gunman Captured After Attack, Lengthy Shootout At US Embassy In Beirut

    The American Embassy in the Lebanese capital of Beirut has come under attack Wednesday, and a gunman has been shot by Lebanese security forces after the armed man fired at the embassy. At least one embassy security guard was injured.

    The badly wounded suspect was taken into custody following the shootout with soldiers, the military and embassy officials confirmed. Amid still emerging details, it appears to have been an Islamic terror attack, given the assailant had a vest with the words “Islamic State” written in Arabic.

    Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) near the US Embassy, via AP

    “The Lebanese military in a statement said that soldiers shot an assailant, who they only described as a Syrian national,” Associated Press reports. The gunman is currently in a hospital and in policy custody.

    According to more details: 

    No motive was immediately clear. However, Lebanese media have published photos that appear to show a bloodied attacker wearing a black vest with the words “Islamic State” written in Arabic and the English initials “I” and “S.”

    The attack and shootout with security was significant, given eyewitnesses said it lasted nearly half an hour, and involved the man firing an assault rifle toward the embassy from a parking lot across from the diplomatic compound’s entrance.

    An embassy spokesperson said of the wounded Lebanese security guard, “With respect to his privacy we cannot say more, but we wish him a full recovery.” The embassy also confirmed that all embassy personnel were “safe”.

    Unverified image of the attacker captured on cell phone of local eyewitness:

    According to an additional statement by the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF):

    “The US Embassy in Lebanon in the Awkar area was exposed to gunfire by a person holding Syrian nationality. Army members deployed in the area responded to the sources of fire, wounding the shooter. He was arrested and transferred to a hospital for treatment. Follow-up is underway to determine the circumstances of the incident,” the army said.

    Harrowing video footage showed the moment the gunman exchange fire with Lebanese soldiers positioned above:

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    Some commentators have underscored that the US will likely use this terror incident to beef up its military presence inside Lebanon.

    Interestingly, even throughout over a decade of the war in Syria, there were no similar terror attacks and shootouts like this specifically targeting the sprawling US Embassy complex in Beirut.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/05/2024 – 20:50

  • US Targets Journalists Who Criticize Administration's Foreign Policy
    US Targets Journalists Who Criticize Administration’s Foreign Policy

    Authored by Dennis Kucinich

    Scott Ritter was pulled off a NY-to-Istanbul flight on Monday by US officials and his passport confiscated in a startling new development in the government’s open drive to censor and silence critics of the Administration’s foreign policies at a time when the United States is supplying billions of dollars in arms to foment wider war in Russia, accelerate the attacks on Gazans and set the stage for war with China over Taiwan.

    A Marine veteran and true American patriot, Mr. Ritter is also a noted former Chief UN weapons inspector, author and journalist.  He was enroute to Russia to attend an international conference in St. Petersburg.  

    Mr. Ritter first came to my attention when he testified at a Capitol hearing I sponsored to inquire into the Bush Administration’s plans to attack Iraq. Ritter warned in August of 2002 that a case had not been made for attacking Iraq.  

    Scott Ritter, Getty Images

    Had Congress listened to Mr. Ritter, the US would have been spared the loss of thousands of our soldiers and the waste of trillions of tax dollars. Over one million Iraqis died as a result of the US attack on their country. America’s financial and moral debt will never be able to be repaid, but would not exist if we had simply looked at the evidence he presented.

    Mr. Ritter’s  passport was confiscated yesterday by U.S. authorities without explanation.

    There are several Constitutional issues at stake here:

    1. The taking of his passport was  an illegal seizure, prohibited by the Fourth Amendment to the Constitution. Mr. Ritter asked for, but did not receive a receipt, for the seized passport.  
    2. The seizure represents a punitive attempt to censor his views, a violation of his First Amendment right to free speech and freedom of the press.
    3. His Fifth Amendment rights to due process were violated. Someone in the State Department made an administrative decision to prevent his travel and to take away his passport.  Since there was no stated reason for the seizure, there was no open court hearing, no evidence to justify the confiscation of Mr. Ritter’s passport was presented publicly.  The whole process has a Kafka-like Trial feeling, where Mr. Ritter cannot find out what he is accused of. 

    The State Department was aware of Mr. Ritter’s travel three weeks before his planned departure, giving rise to the likelihood that the interception was designed to humiliate Mr. Ritter, in addition to the blatant disregard of his Constitutional rights.

    Mr. Ritter has been critical of U.S. foreign policy, and has repeatedly stated his objections to widening war clearly and cogently in his podcasts. While the State Department has jurisdiction over travel, it has no ability to cancel the rights accorded all Americans under the U.S. Constitution, including freedom of movement.

    There needs to be an inquiry into the State Department’s actions here. Many serious questions arise, all of Constitutional import:

    Was Mr. Ritter’s passport seized based on secret evidence, and authorized under President Bush’s Executive Order 13224, which established a national emergency, (now 23 years old!) and reauthorized last year by President Biden?

    Was the passport seized under the Patriot Act? The public has a right to know the reasons why.

    Were the expanded powers given the government in the recent reauthorization of Section 702 of the Patriot Act in play here?  

    Has Scott Ritter been under federal surveillance because of the exercise of his First Amendment rights?

    Was Ritter intercepted because of his attempt to build a bridge of peace toward Russia?

    This is not only about Scott Ritter.  

    Any American, journalist or not, who challenges the state in the current climate may find themselves subject to arbitrary procedures and even politically-inspired prosecution. That is the real state of emergency.  

    Chris Hedges, a man of impeccable journalist credentials, was canceled after he and I engaged in a discussion criticizing US foreign policy, on his show The Real News. 

    Julian Assange’s arrest and imprisonment at the instance of the US government gave fair warning to every journalist of the price which may be paid for exposing official acts of the murder of innocent civilians in Iraq.

    When the Constitutional rights of any of us are under attack, the Constitutional rights of all of us are under attack.  Who else will have their travel restricted because the government does not like what one is saying? Who else will be surveilled? Who else will be prosecuted? Who else will have their Constitutional rights denied?

    Of equal concern was the simultaneous publication by the Washington Post which casts as disinformation the work of journalists, including several Americans, who have challenged the State Department’s narrative with regard to Russia and Iran. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    It would seem the Washington Post has taken seriously the sardonic dictum of A.J. Leibling: “Freedom of the Press is guaranteed only to those who own one.” The corporatization of the First Amendment, and the concentration of media into fewer and fewer hands, are major reasons why America is under constant threat of war and why our Constitutional freedoms are in trouble.   

    Independent authors and journalists are struggling to provide a response which protects our freedom of speech. They also have access to the same Constitutional protection of Freedom of the Press as the Washington Post, the New York Times and other large corporate publishers. 

    Governments’ fear of being challenged is as old as the case of John Peter Zenger, who 1734 printed the New York Weekly Journal. Zenger’s persistent prodding of the Crown’s provincial governor resulted in him being charged with libel. He won the case, establishing truth as a defense.

    Today the well understood truth is as deeply offensive to liars as freedom is offensive to tyrants. “Our liberty,” wrote Thomas Jefferson ten years after The Declaration of Independence, “depends on the freedom of the press, and that cannot be limited without being lost.”

    Today’s independent American journalists are fighting for their freedom, and ours! 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/05/2024 – 20:25

  • "Buy Everything": S&P Hits All Time High As Nvidia Passes $3 Trillion
    “Buy Everything”: S&P Hits All Time High As Nvidia Passes $3 Trillion

    Remember when “developed world” central banks pretended their inflation target was 2%? Well, that lie died a miserable death today – and will do so again for good measure tomorrow – after the BOC cut rates for the first time in 4 years, and less than a year after its last rate hike, from 5.0% to 4.75% even as Canada’s inflation remains a very sticky 2.7%.

    And just to underscore the death of the 2% inflation target, tomorrow the ECB will also cut rates for the first time since March 2016 (and 8 months after the last rate hike), even though core Eurozone CPI remains 3%.

    Of course, despite all the posturing, the Fed won’t be far behind especially once it becomes clear that the myth of strong US job growth was just a mirage (as explained yesterday), and either in July or September, the Fed will join the party despite core US inflation stuck at a blistering 2.8%.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    It was this long overdue realization that the G7 central banks have officially raised their inflation target by about 1% that helped pushed bond yields to fresh two month lows, and down more some 35bps in just the past week, down for a 5th straight day…

    … as financial conditions have eased dramatically (see chart of Goldman Financial Conditions Index below), undoing any jawboned tightening the Fed tried to inject into the market in recent months: indeed, the latest rate pricing shows a sharp dovish shift in the Fed cut narrative for Sept, rising to 80% vs 45% just one week ago. As Goldman’s trader notes, CTAs will become a focus if yields keep moving lower…

    And with the tidal wave of easing about to be unleashed by all central banks, it is no surprise that the S&P just hit a new all time high of 5,350, up a whopping 30% from the October lows.

    Superficially, there was some intraday variation, with some sectors red (hilariously, energy, which is supposed to power this new AI renaissance continues to get dumped)…

    … yet looking below the surface, those hoping that one day… soon… perhaps… the market will broaden out will be disappointed: while the S&P is up 13% YTD, the “Mag 7″” is up 30%, while the S&P493 is up just 6.5%.

    And when we talk about the Magnificent 7, we mean really just Magnificent  1: Nvidia is now up a ridiculous145% in just the past 5 months…

    … and moments ago NVDA’s market cap rose above $3 trillion, up more than $140 billion today alone, having risen more than $100 billion on 4 of the past 9 trading days…

    … but also briefly topped Apple’s $3.005 trillion, and this pace of insane meltup – which will require every tech company buying AI chips for the next several decades to justify the valuation – will make NVDA the world’s biggest company some time tomorrow!

    And as we boldly go into yet another absolutely massive asset bubble, one where three companies alone have a market cap of $9 trillion, it is not surprising that cryptos – those assets that sniff out fiat destruction ahead of most – are surging, with bitcoin also on the verge of another record high and trading above $71,000 with ethereum also finally breaking out higher…

    … but gold is also starting to move after the recent profit taking, and is up a solid $27 today and fast approaching it own all-time highs.

    In fact, the only commodity that is not exploding higher is oil, which instead if getting crushed to boost Biden’s approval rating; indeed, oil will not be allowed to spike until the election… after which all hell will finally break loose.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/05/2024 – 20:03

  • Visualizing The Training Costs Of AI Models Over Time
    Visualizing The Training Costs Of AI Models Over Time

    Training advanced AI models like OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Google’s Gemini Ultra requires millions of dollars, with costs escalating rapidly.

    As computational demands increase, the expenses for the computing power necessary to train them are soaring. In response, AI companies are rethinking how they train generative AI systems. In many cases, these include strategies to reduce computational costs given current growth trajectories.

    As Visual Capitalist’s Dorothy Neufeld shows in the following graphic, based on analysis from Stanford University’s 2024 Artificial Intelligence Index Report, the training costs for advanced AI models has surged.

    How Training Cost is Determined

    The AI Index collaborated with research firm Epoch AI to estimate AI model training costs, which were based on cloud compute rental prices. Key factors that were analyzed include the model’s training duration, the hardware’s utilization rate, and the value of the training hardware.

    While many have speculated that training AI models has become increasingly costly, there is a lack of comprehensive data supporting these claims. The AI Index is one of the rare sources for these estimates.

    Ballooning Training Costs

    Below, we show the training cost of major AI models, adjusted for inflation, since 2017:

    Last year, OpenAI’s GPT-4 cost an estimated $78.4 million to train, a steep rise from Google’s PaLM (540B) model, which cost $12.4 million just a year earlier.

    For perspective, the training cost for Transformer, an early AI model developed in 2017, was $930. This model plays a foundational role in shaping the architecture of many large language models used today.

    Google’s AI model, Gemini Ultra, costs even more, at a staggering $191 million. As of early 2024, the model outperforms GPT-4 on several metrics, most notably across the Massive Multitask Language Understanding (MMLU) benchmark. This benchmark serves as a crucial yardstick for gauging the capabilities of large language models. For instance, its known for evaluating knowledge and problem solving proficiency across 57 subject areas.

    Training Future AI Models

    Given these challenges, AI companies are finding new solutions for training language models to combat rising costs.

    These include a number of approaches, such as creating smaller models that are designed to perform specific tasks. Other companies are experimenting with creating their own, synthetic data to feed into AI systems. However, a clear breakthrough is yet to be seen.

    Today, AI models using synthetic data have shown to produce nonsense when asked with certain prompts, triggering what is referred to as “model collapse”.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/05/2024 – 20:00

  • RNC Making Backup Plans For Presidential Nomination If Trump Sentenced To Prison
    RNC Making Backup Plans For Presidential Nomination If Trump Sentenced To Prison

    Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    With former President Donald Trump facing the possibility of being sentenced to prison just days before the Republican National Convention, GOP officials are formulating backup plans in case the former president isn’t able to receive the Republican party’s presidential nomination in person.

    “We’ll be thinking about it, and we’re working on that right now,” RNC Chair Michael Whatley told Newsmax in an interview on June 4, when asked whether the Republican Party is preparing for the possibility that the former president can’t attend the convention because he’s behind bars.

    The convention, which will take place in Milwaukee on July 15-18, is expected to draw thousands, but President Trump might not be one of them, given his recent felony conviction and the possibility that, on July 11, Justice Juan Merchan could sentence him to prison.

    President Trump was recently found guilty of 34 counts of falsifying business records to hide non-disclosure payments, supposedly to prevent bad press and sway the 2016 election in his favor. He maintains his innocence and says he’s the victim of a vindictive political prosecution meant to derail his 2024 comeback bid.

    Justice Merchan could sentence President Trump for up to four years on each business records falsification count, with a maximum of 20 years.

    The former president said in a June 2 interview on Fox News that he could handle being jailed or imprisoned while calling the people involved in his conviction as “sick” and “evil.”

    Trump Nominee No Matter What

    The former president and his attorneys have vowed to appeal the conviction, with President Trump even calling on the U.S. Supreme Court to step in before the sentencing date and overturn the guilty verdict.

    While a former Manhattan district attorney predicted that President Trump would receive no prison time regardless of any appeals process, GOP officials say they’ll be ready to handle whatever scenario presents itself at the convention.

    “We expect that Donald Trump is going to be in Milwaukee, and he’s going to be able to accept that nomination,” Mr. Whatley said. “And if not, we will make whatever contingency planning we need to make for it.”

    While Mr. Whatley didn’t provide specifics about the contingency plans, he said the RNC will “certainly” have a plan in place to make sure President Trump receives the nomination no matter what.

    “We want to have a show that is going to roll out Donald Trump and his vision for America, which is going to set up this election cycle,” Mr. Whatley said while expressing confidence that President Trump will become America’s 47th president when the Election Day dust settles in November.

    In response to Mr. Whatley preparing for the possibility of Donald Trump virtually addressing the Republican National Convention, DNC Rapid Response Director Alex Floyd released the following statement:

    “Even before Donald Trump became a convicted felon, his inner circle was already staffed by a roster of convicts and fraudsters brought on board for their loyalty to Trump and his MAGA agenda over the rule of law. Now Trump’s hand-picked RNC chair is openly floating Trump calling into the convention from a jail cell because the Republican Party has become completely beholden to a criminal who is willing to undermine our justice system and our democracy to pursue his agenda of revenge and retribution.”

    Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, a Democrat who brought the case against President Trump, has not indicated whether he will ask for a prison sentence.

    President Trump’s lead attorney, Todd Blanche, said after the guilty verdict was handed down that it’s unlikely President Trump would be sentenced to prison given his age and that he is a first-time offender. Trump attorney Will Scharf told ABC News on June 2 that the former president will “speedily appeal this unjust verdict.” “I think this case is replete with reversible error,“ he told the outlet. ”We plan to vigorously defend President Trump’s rights in the appellate courts all the way up to the U.S. Supreme Court if necessary.”

    ‘Breaking Point’

    President Trump was asked in the June 2 interview on Fox News for his thoughts about a possible punishment, which could include time behind bars.

    “I’m OK with it,” the former president replied. “I saw one of my lawyers the other day on television saying, ‘Oh no, you don’t want to do that to the president.’ I said: You don’t beg for anything.”

    Former U.S. President Donald Trump arrives at Trump Tower on May 30, 2024 in New York City. (Stephanie Keith/Getty Images)

    At the same time, the former president said he thought the American people would be outraged at such a harsh punishment for him.

    “I’m not sure the public would stand for it,” President Trump said. “I think it would be tough for the public to take, you know, at a certain point, there’s a breaking point.”

    Asked what Trump supporters should do if the former president were imprisoned, RNC co-chair Lara Trump told CNN they would make their voices heard at the ballot box.

    “Well, they’re gonna do what they’ve done from the beginning, which is remain calm and protest at the ballot box on November 5,“ she told the outlet. ”There’s nothing to do other than make your voices heard loud and clear and speak out against this.”

    While Democrats have taken to referring to President Trump as a “convicted felon” in their political messaging, a recent confidential memo to RNC leadership indicated that the conviction has had no negative impact on President Trump’s popularity among voters in the seven battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

    In fact, an average of polls by RealClear Polling as of June 4 indicates that President Trump leads President Biden by 3.2 points in all seven swing states.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/05/2024 – 19:35

  • Putin: We Could Supply Long-Range Missiles To Enemies Of West In Retaliation
    Putin: We Could Supply Long-Range Missiles To Enemies Of West In Retaliation

    Update(1932ET): Russian President Putin addressed the annual economic forum in St. Petersburg on Wednesday, where he took the opportunity to put the US and NATO on notice concerning Kiev being given the greenlight to use Western weapons to attack Russian territory (detailed below). 

    He suggested that he’s mulling the option of providing adversaries of the West with Russian long-range missiles. Below is what he said: 

    “That would mark their direct involvement in the war against the Russian Federation, and we reserve the right to act the same way,” Mr Putin told a three-hour meeting with the senior editors of international news agencies.

    Because using such Western weapons involves military personnel of those countries controlling the missiles and selecting targets, Mr Putin claimed Moscow could take “asymmetrical” steps elsewhere in the world.

    “If they consider it possible to deliver such weapons to the combat zone to launch strikes on our territory and create problems for us, why don’t we have the right to supply weapons of the same type to some regions of the world where they can be used to launch strikes on sensitive facilities of the countries that do it to Russia?” he said.

    He then followed ominously with, “We will think about it.” But it remains that clearly Russia needs to keep intact its arsenal and advanced weapon supplies as much as possible, considering it could be in for a years-long conflict in Ukraine and with its Western backers. The proxy fight is set to go on for the foreseeable future, and could easily escalate into direct war with NATO at this dangerous point. There was also this interesting moment during a Q&A with journalists…

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    * * *

    Ukraine is already attacking Russian territory with US-supplied long-range weapons, a fresh NY Times investigation has acknowledged. It comes a mere days after the Biden administration greenlighted Ukraine’s request to fire American weapons onto Russian soil.

    “Yehor Chernev, the deputy chairman of the Ukrainian Parliament’s committee on national security, defense and intelligence, said on Tuesday that Ukrainian forces had destroyed Russian missile launchers with a strike in the Belgorod region, about 20 miles into Russia,” NY Times wrote, describing it as a ‘first’.

    The Ukraine official said that the army used a US-supplied High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS. The revelation came the same day that a UK Telegraph report detailed NATO logistics plans for US troop ‘land corridors’ in the event of a European ground war with Russia.

    Various social media videos and images appeared to show burning and destroyed S-300 and S-400 systems inside Russian territory…

    Examining some of the new to emerge images, Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, described to the Times, “Given the range, type of target, munition availability and change in the Biden administration’s policy, I think it is probable this strike was conducted with HIMARS.”

    Additionally the report highlighted other evidence pointing to US munitions used in the attack:

    On Saturday, Evgeny Poddubny, a war correspondent for Russian state television, shared photographs of what were presented as fragments of American guided rockets found in Russian territory. It was not possible to independently verify when or where the fragments were found.

    Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk also hinted that the strike was conducted with American weapons. 

    Vereshchuk shared a picture (above) of a burning S-300 system on Telegram – but soon after deleted – with the caption, “It’s burning well. This is a Russian S-300. On Russian territory. The first days after permission to use Western weapons on the enemy’s territory.”

    Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov warned earlier this week, “I would like to caution American officials against miscalculations which may have fatal consequences. For some unknown reason, they underestimate the seriousness of the rebuff they may receive.”

    Russian media has meanwhile on Wednesday announced the destruction of more foreign weapons stores inside Ukraine with the below statement:

    The Russian Ministry of Defense has reported that its forces have successfully hit weapon and equipment storage sites used by the Foreign Legion fighting alongside Ukraine.

    “Using operational-tactical aviation, unmanned aerial vehicles, missile troops, and artillery, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation destroyed the weapon and military equipment depots of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ Hortitsa operational-strategic group and the ‘Foreign Legion’ fighters,“ the ministry clarified.

    Several videos of destroyed Russian anti-air systems:

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    Thus far the Pentagon has not officially commented, neither confirming nor denying, on whether Ukraine has used US long-range weapons inside Russia yet. But the situation is clearly escalating, and quite rapidly, by the day at this point.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/05/2024 – 19:32

  • US Warns Netanyahu Against Major Offensive In Southern Lebanon
    US Warns Netanyahu Against Major Offensive In Southern Lebanon

    The United States is warning Israel against “escalation” in Lebanon following fresh Wednesday remarks of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu which threatened a major offensive due to ratcheting Hezbollah attacks. “We are prepared for a very intense operation in the north. One way or another, we will restore security to the north,” Netanyahu said on a visit to the region.

    “We don’t want to see that escalation of the conflict which would just lead to further loss of life from both Israelis and the Lebanese people and would greatly harm Israel’s overall security and stability in the region,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller responded in a daily briefing.

    Associated Press: Israeli forces have been striking targets inside Lebanon as they increasingly exchange fire with Hezbollah.

    The Biden State Dept. spox urged caution while appearing to downplay the latest bellicose words out of Tel Aviv. “The statements from the Israeli government saying that they are ready for military operation, if necessary, (are) different than saying that they have made a decision to conduct a military operation,” Miller continued.

    “We are still in a place where we believe they prefer a diplomatic solution,” he said while adding that the US fully understands the “untenable situation for Israel” on its northern border.

    “There are tens of thousands of Israeli citizens who cannot return to their homes in the north of Israel because it’s not safe to do so because of the … constant Hezbollah shelling and drone attacks in the area,” Miller emphasized.

    Not only have fires ripped across large swathes of the Galilee region this week as a result of wildfires sparked by Hezbollah drone and rocket attacks, but the Shia paramilitary group backed by Iran has been scoring more and more direct hits on IDF bases and settlements in northern Israel.

    On Wednesday an explosive-laden drone was sent against the town of Hurfeish, located several kilometers from the Lebanon border, which wounded at least eleven Israelis, with one in critical condition. Sirens reportedly failed to sound as the drone as inbound, and the IDF says it is investigating.

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    Times of Israel details, “According to initial military assessments, the two drones impacted within a few minutes of each other, with the second seemingly targeting rescue crews who arrived to treat those wounded by the first. Hezbollah has employed such a tactic several times amid the war.”

    Hezbollah took responsibility for the attack in a statement, saying it was retaliation for a Tuesday Israeli attack Naqoura which took out a Hezbollah member.

    The group’s leader, Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, has been warning that the world will witness Israeli tanks “burn” if they try to enter Lebanese territory…

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    During the 2006 war Hezbollah shocked IDF commanders by its performance on the battlefield and effective guerilla tactics, and there has since been a general consensus that the group (which receives assistance from the IRGC) is more formidable than previously thought.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/05/2024 – 19:10

  • Limited Hangouts: Tidal Waves Don’t Discriminate
    Limited Hangouts: Tidal Waves Don’t Discriminate

    Authored by Lori Weintz via the Brownstone Institute,

    From a Russell Brand video posted May 28, 2024:

    Quote from former CDC Director Robert Redfield: “[The Covid vaccines] really aren’t that critical for those that are under 50 or younger, but those vaccines saved a lot of lives…To be honest, some people got significant side effects from the vaccine. I have a number of people that are quite ill and they never had Covid, but they are ill from the vaccine, and we just have to acknowledge that.

    Russell Brand’s response: “How long can you maintain the sort of slow drag that it was all worth it?… I have a question, why are there so many excess deaths all around the world?…Attempting to continue to claim that the pandemic was a success, that it was well handled, that the medications were effective, that there hasn’t been an extraordinary swindle practiced on the people of the world – seems more and more difficult to do with a straight face.”

    Limited Hangouts:

    To present a “limited hangout” is to put part of the information out there, in order to divert from other facts or activities you don’t want someone to notice. It is a sleight of hand, a way of getting ahead of damning truths that are too big to keep covered up, like the 1,637,441 Vaccine Adverse Event Reports (VAERS) connected to the Covid-19 injections in the US (It’s estimated that VAERS is largely underreported and represents only around 1% of actual adverse events.)

    We apparently have reached a moment of communal introspection with regard to Covid-19 and our pandemic response, leading to increasing limited hangouts. The New York Times in a May 4, 2024 article informs us that some people have been injured by the Covid vaccines and implies, rightly so, that we should help them. The Brookings Institution report of 2024 commends us for saving thousands of lives by “slowing the spread” of Covid through changing our behaviors (aka social distancing and masking) until we could get the Safe and Effective™ vaccines. Everyone from former FDA Commissioner Janet Woodcock to former CNN reporter Chris Cuomo now acknowledges that maybe some things could have been handled better. But they all assure us, “We did the best we could with the information we had at the time.”

    An insightful individual who writes under the pseudonym of A Midwestern Doctor accurately describes the New York Times vaccine injury article as a piece, “sculpted to redeem the medical system’s reputation while admitting the absolute minimal amount of guilt necessary to accomplish that objective.”

    Widening the Overton Window

    It’s good to see the Overton window concerning the pandemic response opening up a bit in the mainstream media and government agencies. But it’s important to be very clear that their concessions are largely a limited hangout, designed to deflect from their own failures. In addition, these limited hangouts are an attempt to distract from the continuing goal of controlling everyone through repeated use of “emergencies” that require us to give up our freedom in order to be “safe.” Or at least to be “good citizens,” which was a powerful guilt-inducing motivator during the pandemic to gain compliance from people who weren’t actually afraid of the virus.

    Why Can’t We Just Move on?

    With the expansion of acceptable dialogue, some admissions that mistakes were made, and the Covid pandemic seeming to be fully in our rearview mirror some ask exasperatedly, “Why do you want to keep talking about the pandemic anyway? Why can’t you just move on?”

    I’ll tell you why. There are many powerful people and organizations who are weaponizing “pandemic preparedness” for ulterior motives having nothing to do with health. In fact, the perpetrators of pandemic harms have doubled down, even as they engage in limited hangouts. It appears they believe, probably correctly, that if they say something enough times such as, “The vaccines saved a lot of lives,” people will believe it.

    The Push for Digital ID’s

    Buried in the Times article that finally acknowledges the possibility of some vaccine injuries is the idea that we need a national medical database in order to better track, and therefore compensate for such injuries. This would be a database where all citizens’ medical records are tracked electronically and managed by the federal government. Not only would this complete the government takeover of our medical system that has been underway for years, but it would also be the end of personal privacy. The phrase “national medical database” is a euphemism for “vaccine passports” – required medical proof in order to participate in the public square.

    FDA Still Wants Money for Hazardous Gain-of-Function Research

    Another reason why we can’t just forget about the pandemic is because of people like Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner Robert Califf. In a May 8, 2024 US Senate Appropriations Committee Hearing, Califf requested a total of $3.69 billion for the FDA budget, including an additional $168 million partly to pay for “countermeasures” to prevent a “wider outbreak of H5N1 avian influenza.” Califf states, “If we institute the countermeasures now, and reduce the spread of the virus…we’re much less likely to see a mutation that jumps to humans – for which we’re ill-prepared.”

    Califf, among others, is attempting to generate fear of H5N1 avian flu that has been circulating for decades in various animal populations, and likely won’t become easily transmissible to humans unless someone in a lab tinkers with it. Let’s not forget that the nature of viruses, even lab-made ones, is to be either highly transmissible, or highly virulent, but not both. A virus can’t survive long and infect many others if it kills its host. With the medical advances we have today, we know how to treat the symptoms of illness, even in those infected with a new virus. However, the policy response to a pathogen can be horrific, as seen throughout the Covid-19 pandemic.

    Yet Robert Califf wants even more money for the FDA, partly so they can develop virus countermeasures, which is an Intelligence Community term having to do with biological warfare. In other words, Califf acknowledges that lab-made viruses are being studied around the world, and the viruses created in these labs require antidotal vaccines. Making a pathogen more transmissible, or more virulent, through experimentation is called gain-of-function research, and it is a controversial practice. Not all research in biological laboratories involves gain-of-function, and perhaps some of the research has public health benefits, but there is often lax oversight and poor adherence to containment protocols.

    Lab Leaks Have Led to Multiple Disease Outbreaks in the Past Century

    Epidemiologist Donald A. Henderson, credited with the eradication of smallpox through a targeted vaccination campaign, coauthored a paper in 2014 expressing concerns about gain-of-function research on the H5N1 virus:

    Scientists recently have announced that they genetically modified H5N1 in the laboratory and that this mutated strain spread through the air between ferrets that were physically separated from each other. This is ominous news. Since ferret influenza virus infection closely mirrors human infection and is similarly transmissible, these scientists appear to have created a bird flu strain with characteristics that indicate it would be readily transmissible by air between humans. In fact, the lead scientist on one of the experiments explicitly stated this.

    The question is this: Should we purposefully engineer avian flu strains to become highly transmissible in humans? In our view, no. We believe the benefits of this work do not outweigh the risks. Here’s why. There are no guarantees that such a deadly strain of avian flu would not escape accidentally from the laboratory. (emphasis added)

    There is substantive evidence that various diseases in the past century including the 1976 swine flu outbreak, the surge of Lyme disease in the US, and the Covid-19 pandemic can be traced to lab experiments that escaped and infected the general population.

    The best thing the Appropriations Committee can do for the health of the US and all citizens of the world is put a moratorium on gain-of-function research. While they’re at it, the Senate should consider restructuring that needs to happen at the FDA, and throughout the entire National Institutes of Health (NIH). They could start by removing Califf from his position, as his investments in pharmaceutical companies and stints working for them have surely compromised his ability to properly regulate the products from which he profits. In addition, the Senate should outlaw the current corrupt system in which over half of the NIH’s operating budget is provided by pharmaceutical companies the NIH is charged with regulating.

    Bill Gates and the World Health Organization

    Another reason we cannot just “move past” the Covid-19 pandemic is because in addition to people like compromised Director Robert Califf, we have Bill Gates, the largest donor to the World Health Organization (WHO) just behind the United States and Germany. Gates, with his outsized influence on the WHO, has the stated goal to deliver a vaccine in 100 days against the next virus. He’s heavily invested in mRNA vaccines and has found the returns on investments in vaccines to be highly profitable.

    Gates, who has engaged consistently in pandemic wargame simulations for over two decades, espouses a preparedness plan that involves year-round pandemic teams in every community around the world. These teams would immediately enforce contact tracing and quarantine upon the appearance of any communicable disease until the vaccine can be deployed. In a 2022 TED talk, Gates even provided a visual of his dream, coming soon to a city near you:

    The WHO is pushing for a worldwide Pandemic Treaty, and changes to the International Health Regulations. These changes, if approved by member countries, will allow the WHO unprecedented influence on community responses to epidemic and pandemic threats, as identified by the Director General. The current Director General, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, is not a medical doctor, is known to be weak on human rights, and has an uncomfortably close relationship with the Chinese Communist Party.  Tedros is among the many unelected persons, including government bureaucrats and public health officials, who wreaked havoc during the Covid-19 pandemic.

    Pandemic Preparedness as a Weapon:

    The reason why we must still attempt to unpack the facts is because so many are willing to use “pandemic preparedness” as a weapon, and so few have acknowledged the absolute failure of our Covid-19 pandemic response. For example, the previously referenced Brookings Paper from March 2024, titled “The Impact of Vaccines and Behavior on US Cumulative Deaths from Covid-19,” attempts to lend validity to the unscientific human disaster of “social distancing.”

    Social distancing was found to have zero impact on the spread of disease. Former FDA Director Scott Gottlieb even stated that the 6-foot distancing rule was “arbitrary,” and Dr. Anthony Fauci said the 6-foot rule “sort of just appeared.” Those admissions bring small comfort to schools, care centers, hospitals, churches, businesses, performing arts, and other organizations, and individuals whose day-to-day lives were harmed, sometimes permanently, by the 6-foot rule.

    Johns Hopkins: Lockdowns Have Had Little to No Effect on Covid-19 Mortality

    A 2022 analysis conducted by professors at Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics considered 18,950 studies on the effectiveness of lockdowns, paring down to 24 that met the screening procedures for their meta-analysis. For purposes of the analysis, lockdown was defined as “at least one compulsory, non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI)…that directly restrict(s) people’s possibilities, such as policies that limit internal movement, close schools and businesses, and ban international travel.” The 24 qualified studies were divided into three groups: lockdown stringency index studies, shelter-in-place-order (SIPO) studies, and specific NPI studies, and determined that “Lockdowns have had little to no effect on COVID-19 mortality.” The authors summarized:

    While this meta-analysis concludes that lockdowns have had little to no public health effects, they have imposed enormous economic and social costs where they have been adopted. In consequence, lockdown policies are ill-founded and should be rejected as a pandemic policy instrument.

    New Zealand: a Lesson in Lockdown Failure

    One need only look at the data from New Zealand in the following chart to know that social distancing and locking down entire populations does not prevent the spread of respiratory viruses.

    Because it’s an island, New Zealand was able to keep out visitors and lock down residents. The lockdowns harmed the country in every way, but only delayed the arrival of Covid. In the above chart, the orange line shows mask compliance at almost 90% in September 2021. The black line shows daily new cases. Note the exponential rise of cases in February 2022, despite coerced/forced Covid-19 vaccination.

    As pointed out by former United Nations Assistant Secretary-General Ramesh Thakur, 99.3% of Covid deaths in New Zealand occurred after 60% of the population was fully vaccinated. In Australia, another hard lockdown country, that figure was 93%. In other words, harsh lockdowns can delay the spread of a respiratory virus, but not prevent it. Meanwhile, the lockdowns cause economic mayhem, and social and emotional devastation, and inflict permanent disadvantages on the upcoming generation. Lockdowns are a violation of fundamental human rights and should never be tolerated again as a viable means of containing viral spread, not even if a perfect vaccine antidote can be manufactured in less than 100 days.

    The above, and similar charts for other states and countries, was created by Ian Miller from official publicly available data. It’s mystifying that anyone can actually look at these charts and claim, “Yes, but Covid-19 would have been so much worse if we hadn’t masked, locked down, and taken the vaccine.” How can there be worse results than exponential growth in cases; increased illness, hospitalizations, and deaths in the vaccinated; increased Covid deaths after vaccination, and a marked rise in excess deaths – especially among the young?

    Brookings Advocates for More of the Same in the “Next Pandemic”

    Yet the Brookings paper joins emotionally abusive governments in praising people for engaging in anti-human social distancing because it was effective in “slowing the spread of a dangerous infectious respiratory disease for a long time.” Brookings does acknowledge that these “behavior changes” came at a “tremendous economic, social, and human cost.” The solution, according to Brookings? More of the same, but with more targeted interventions:

    To avoid similar pain from mitigation in the next pandemic, we argue that we need to make investments now not only in vaccine development, but also in data infrastructure so that we can precisely target behavior-oriented mitigation efforts to minimize their economic and social impacts of the next pandemic.

    Brookings advocates for both vaccine development and a centralized “data infrastructure,” so “we can precisely target behavior-oriented mitigation efforts” in the next pandemic. Refer back to Bill Gates’ paradise of swooping in by helicopter with medical SWAT teams ready to take you and yours down in order to save the world. 

    One might consider the times a mask was worn below the chin, a trip was taken to get away from onerous Covid regulations, a fake vaccine card was obtained to facilitate normal life, or a dinner party exceeded the numbers allowed by government decree.  Then project what it might be like as the recipient of targeted “behavior-oriented mitigation efforts” in a world where those behaviors are digitally tracked and “corrected” in real time.

    Bill Gates compares people to computers that need new software, and viruses to something that can be prevented from spreading by dousing them with interventions, like putting out a fire. Both analogies are untethered from real science and tone-deaf to the complexities of the human body, normally functioning societies, and our interdependence with a microbial planet. 

    Believing the Evidence of Your Own Eyes

    The Brookings paper does a lot of talking and citing of selective data but ignores the common sense facts before our eyes. We all observed that social distancing and masking did not prevent the spread of Covid. The data and our own experiences consistently showed that Covid-19 largely was not a serious disease except for the elderly and the medically frail – something that was already known in February 2020. We all noticed that most vaccinated people contracted Covid-19. We also have observed that many multiple-vaccinated people appear to be repeatedly ill with cold and flu symptoms, while many have developed autoimmune illnesses, neurological issues, infertility problems, cancers, and heart issues within the past three years.

    Those with the Megaphone Still Claim the Pandemic Response was a Success

    Yet still the official Covid narrative persists, as does the fear-mongering. On May 16, 2024, the New York Times ran an opinion piece from John M. Barry, a scholar at the Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, titled “As Bird Flu Looms, the Lessons of Past Pandemics Take on New Urgency.” In his article, Barry claims that the public health measures taken to slow the spread of Covid are effective, but:

    [E]ven the most extreme interventions cannot eliminate a pathogen that escapes initial containment if, like influenza or the virus that causes Covid-19, it is both airborne and transmitted by people showing no symptoms. Yet such interventions can achieve two important goals.

    The first is preventing hospitals from being overrun. Achieving this outcome could require a cycle of imposing, lifting and reimposing public health measures to slow the spread of the virus. But the public should accept that because the goal is understandable, narrow and well defined.

    The second objective is to slow transmission to buy time for identifying, manufacturing and distributing therapeutics and vaccines and for clinicians to learn how to manage care with the resources at hand.

    The number of inaccuracies in just these three paragraphs from Barry’s opinion piece is astounding, qualifying more as outright propaganda than as a limited hangout.

    We hear the word a lot, but a refresher from Britannica on Propaganda is in order:

    Propaganda is the more or less systematic effort to manipulate other people’s beliefs, attitudes, or actions…Propagandists…deliberately select facts, arguments, and displays of symbols and present them in ways they think will have the most effect…To maximize effect, they may omit or distort pertinent facts or simply lie, and they may try to divert the attention of the reactors (the people they are trying to sway) from everything but their own propaganda. Comparatively deliberate selectivity and manipulation also distinguish propaganda from education.  (emphasis added)                                                                       

    Propagandists such as Barry draw on their credentials, and use their writing and reasoning skills, to “distort pertinent facts or simply lie” to prop up the official Covid narrative, in this case. Gratefully there are resources for balanced discussion.  There are credible individuals discussing legitimate studies and data that refute the false statements in Barry’s opinion piece. Unfortunately, many people do not know where to find their work, or simply don’t want to know.

    Power, Control, Money: The Great Motivators

    It would indeed be wonderful to say that the Covid-19 pandemic is behind us. Been there, done that. But unfortunately, there is an entire industry comprised of billionaires, corporate, NGO, military, intelligence, and government interests that is driving the idea of scary pandemics, and preparing radical interventions to deal with them. What could possibly be their motive? Nothing new under the sun. It’s always power, money, and a desire for control driving any human experiment that leads to cruel oppression, misery, and death. We saw it writ large through the campaigns of Stalin, Lenin, Hitler, and Mao. We saw it with Mussolini, Pol Pot, and Pinochet.

    The desire for power at the expense of others is as old as the history of mankind, but for the first time, the campaign is being orchestrated on a global scale. What was revealed during the Covid pandemic was not new ways to handle frightening pandemic-causing pathogens. What was actually revealed was a global trial run of how to bring entire populations into subjugation through fear and medical tyranny under the false assurance of Safety.

    The experiment wasn’t completely successful, largely because the Emergency Use Authorized (EUA) vaccines failed to prevent disease or transmission. It’s not hard to develop a product at “Warp Speed” when all safety regulations and accountability are removed from product development, approval, and distribution. The mRNA platform was not ready for human use, and still isn’t, but the EUA Covid injections were administered to billions of people under cover of a “global emergency.” The debacle of increasingly noticeable vaccine injuries is the direct result.

    Plans to Extend the mRNA Platform to all Vaccines:

    Nonetheless, there are plans to convert traditional vaccines to the flawed mRNA platform, as well as to develop new profitable mRNA injections to treat pandemic-potential viruses in the future. Health and Human Services is currently in discussions with Pfizer and Moderna to produce mRNA flu vaccines to treat H5N1, which announcement led to a surge in biotech companies’ stocks this week, according to the Financial Times.

    An academic who went through WWII in Nazi Germany was interviewed afterward and explained how the horrors of that time gradually grew upon them, over several years, almost without them noticing. He said:

    What happened here was the gradual habituation of the people, little by little, to being governed by surprise; to receiving decisions deliberated in secret; to believing that the situation was so complicated that the government had to act on information which the people could not understand, or so dangerous that, even if the people could understand it, it could not be released because of national security…

    One had no time to think. There was so much going on…I speak of my colleagues and myself, learned men, mind you. Most of us did not want to think about fundamental things and never had. There was no need to…we were decent people – and kept so busy with continuous changes and ‘crises’ and so fascinated…that we had no time to think about these dreadful things that were growing, little by little, all around us.” (p. 166-168, They Thought They Were Free, By Milton Mayer)

    Government Intent to Silence Dissent:

    It’s very important to those in charge that we not think and not notice. This is why we hear so much today about the dangers of misinformation, disinformation, and malinformation, and how much the government wants to protect us from such harmful speech. In fact Homeland Security is so worried they published a Terrorism Threat Bulletin calling people who say things that might undermine public trust in government institutions “domestic threat actors.”

    This bulletin was accompanied by government censorship efforts that led to removed posts and accounts throughout all social media platforms, as well as character defamation, loss of employment, and other forms of persecution – all as a consequence of exercising freedom of speech. It also led to a Disinformation Governance Board created by the Biden Administration, that was “paused” after three weeks of comparison to the Ministry of Truth in Orwell’s 1984, and following concerns raised about the head of the Board.

    The government’s concerns about correct information do not extend to itself, or its mouthpieces, of which the New York Times is one. Despite the limited hangout acknowledging some “rare but serious” Covid-19 vaccine injuries, the Times is quick to claim there’s no way to know for sure if these people really were injured by the injections. The Times states:

    The government’s understaffed compensation fund has paid so little because it officially recognizes few side effects for Covid vaccines. And vaccine supporters, including federal officials, worry that even a whisper of possible side effects feeds into misinformation spread by a vitriolic anti-vaccine movement.

    Ah, yes. Those nasty anti-vaxxers. The ones that Homeland Security calls domestic terrorists, along with parents who speak out at school board meetings, and people who have concerns about election integrity. Homeland Security says people who question, “sow discord or undermine public trust in U.S. government institutions.” So don’t ask questions and just do as you’re told. Whatever happened to the widespread consensus of the truth in Pres. Ronald Reagan’s quip, “The nine most terrifying words in the English language are, ‘I’m from the government and I’m here to help?’”

    Multi-billionaire Bill Gates in his grandfatherly sweater and glasses said in the previously referenced TED talk that it’s, “Kind of weird” how the anti-vaxxers respond to him. He claims his Gavi foundation has saved tens of millions of lives through vaccines. Gates states, “It’s somewhat ironic to have someone turn around and say no, we’re using vaccines to kill people or to make money or…some strange things like, that I somehow want to track, you know, the location of individuals because I’m so deeply desirous to know where everybody is. Uh, I’m not sure what I’m going to do with that information.” Cue the helicopters.

    I understand people who want to believe that we did the best we could with the information that we had, and that our efforts to stop a virus made a difference. It’s comforting to believe that those in charge have our best interests at heart. It’s easier and less frightening to believe wise scientists, doctors, and government officials know just what we need to be “safe.” 

    It’s generally thought that we enlightened modern people could never be susceptible to a mass formation like that of Nazi Germany, or Mao’s Cultural Revolution; we would recognize what was going on and we wouldn’t fall for it. There seems to be a general belief that the freedoms guaranteed in the US Constitution are inviolable, and therefore we do not need to fight to retain them.

    A limited hangout may open the Overton window a bit, but it’s being made very clear to anyone who is paying attention that the powers that be are loathe to give up the control they tasted during Covid-19, and next time they intend to completely squash dissent.

    Combatting the Tidal Wave of Corporate and Government Control:

    From attorney Jeff Childer’s Substack on US Memorial Day May 27, 2024, we gain some insight into the call to action for our times:

    Lincoln’s [Gettysburg Address] could just as well have been written for us the living in the equally extraordinary year 2024, Anno Domini. In particular, the second half of President Lincoln’s short speech seems aimed right at us, reminding us that the honored dead made their ultimate sacrifices for a reason.

    Our heroic dead expect that we, the living, will keep fighting to the last man and woman. In Lincoln’s own words:

    It is for us the living, rather, to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which they who fought here have thus far so nobly advanced. It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us—that from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they gave the last full measure of devotion—that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain—that this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom—and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth.

    Ours is not a war fought with cannons and musket balls. Our generation’s war is a mental, emotional, and cultural war, a war waged in secret and in lies, a war with needles and mysterious snake oil payloads, a mendacious war waged against truth, thoughts and feelings.

    Keep fighting! Fight for the dead. Fight for the living. Fight for those not yet born. Fight and never stop fighting, until we have achieved a new birth of freedom in America.

    Tidal waves don’t discriminate between those who believe in them, and those who don’t. A wave of censorship and government controls is building, fueled by fears about another pandemic, or climate change, or whatever “emergency” can be exploited to justify government power grabs. The only thing that will stop the censorship and control from washing over everyone is enlightened people who refuse to be swept up, and who work together to push back.

    Republished from the author’s Substack

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/05/2024 – 18:45

  • Disney Tops Long List Of Woke Failures With Upcoming Release Of Gay Star Wars Show
    Disney Tops Long List Of Woke Failures With Upcoming Release Of Gay Star Wars Show

    A key element of understanding the smooth-brained antics of the woke left is that they are incapable of doing anything “creative” without sexualizing it and politicizing it.  Their collective identity revolves around who they lust after, how to virtue signal to the herd and who is supposedly the most oppressed.  Remove these things from their daily lives and there’s not much left to look at.  They could disappear tomorrow along with all of their media products and the world wouldn’t miss them in the slightest.  

    When a company chooses to pander to this small margin of the population there’s very little profit to be made.  A few years ago ESG lending was the big motivator for corporations to promote far-left ideology – With every progressive product, progressive commercial and progressive employment policy those businesses added to their overall ESG score.

    Cheap debt from global conglomerates like Blackrock created the fuel that made the woke movement possible.  However, with the advent of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes ESG loans were no longer viable and venture capital dried up.

    In other words, woke companies used to be able to distribute propaganda despite ample consumer opposition.  They could pump out all the DEI they wanted, alienate the majority of their customer base and not worry.  Now, those days are over.

    Case in point – The numerous failures of Disney.

    Once a media juggernaut that could not be stopped, the company is currently on the ropes after an endless list of woke bombs.  Their journey to self destruction really started with their attempt to subvert Star Wars; perhaps the most popular franchise in film history.  The addition of feminist politics, forced diversity and an obvious hatred of the original characters drove away their audience until there was nothing left.  In terms of box office receipts, after ten years Disney still has yet to make back the $4 billion they paid George Lucas to get the rights.

    Almost every film and streaming show they have launched in relation to “a galaxy far far away” has met with increasing public disdain.  The decay even spread into Disney’s theme park projects.  They would certainly prefer people forget all about their embarrassing “Galactic Star Cruiser” hotel, a Star Wars LARP experience that cost around $6000 or more for a family for only two days.  

    Under the guidance of Kathleen Kennedy and woke Lucasfilm the hotel refused to use themes from the original movies.  The project imploded within a year after it was thoroughly ridiculed by fans.

    Apparently not deterred by the abject humiliation, Kathleen Kennedy barreled forward with several more increasingly political iterations of the science fiction classic.  This effort tied into Disney’s overall wokification culture, determined to saturate western entertainment with DEI.  Kennedy dismissed all criticism until the creators of South Park dissected her in hilarious fashion.  The anti-woke movement was now officially mainstream and Disney made it all possible.

    Today, there is almost zero chance of a woke movie or TV series success story.  For every ‘Barbie’ there are a hundred bombs like Furiosa or The Marvels.  Of course, film and streaming series productions are usually initiated at least a couple years in advance of release.  So, even with the sweeping sea change in public awareness of woke propaganda, media companies like Disney are still stuck with the garbage projects they already sunk money into back in 2022-2023.  

    This is why we now have ‘The Acolyte’ to look forward to – Another woke Star Wars travesty featuring lesbian representation, a perfect diversity pie chart, and director Leslye Headland, the former personal assistant to Harvey Weinstein.  Headland noted that this version of Star Wars will break from the good vs. evil roots of the franchise and will instead explore morally relative characters.  Truly, a crowd pleaser…

    The Acolyte, to be released this week, is expected to plunge in viewership after the first episode much like every other Star Wars show featured on Disney+.  The corporation and the establishment media are already in damage control mode declaring that the fans are the problem, instead of the show and its content.  It is likely that The Acolyte signals the end of any fantasy that Disney Star Wars will ever win an audience. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/05/2024 – 18:20

  • X Urges Supreme Court for Review After Jack Smith Obtained Trump Files
    X Urges Supreme Court for Review After Jack Smith Obtained Trump Files

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    X CEO Elon Musk during the UK Artificial Intelligence Safety Summit at Bletchley Park, in central England, on Nov. 1, 2023. (Leon Neal/AFP via Getty Images)

    Elon Musk’s X Corp. has asked the U.S. Supreme Court to consider stepping in against a process that lets officials obtain information from social media companies and bars the companies from informing people whose information is handed over.

    The process wrongly enables officials to “access and review potentially privileged materials without any opportunity for the user to assert privileges—including constitutional privileges,” lawyers for X said in a filing to the nation’s top court.

    Unsealed documents in 2023 showed that X provided data and records from former President Donald Trump’s Twitter account to special counsel Jack Smith after Mr. Smith obtained a search warrant.

    X was blocked from informing President Trump by a nondisclosure order that Mr. Smith also obtained.

    The order said disclosing the warrant would result in “destruction of or tampering with evidence, intimidation of potential witnesses, and serious jeopardy to the investigation,” and let President Trump “flee from prosecution.”

    X challenged the order, arguing it violated its First Amendment rights and noting that President Trump might have reason to claim executive privilege, or presidential privilege. The company wanted to alert the former president so he could assert the privilege, but U.S. District Judge Beryl Howell ruled against it, claiming during a hearing that the only reason X was issuing the challenge was “because the CEO wants to cozy up with the former president.”

    A panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia upheld the ruling from Judge Howell, an appointee of former President Barack Obama.

    “The government proffered two compelling interests that supported nondisclosure of the search warrant: preserving the integrity and maintaining the secrecy of its ongoing criminal investigation of the events surrounding January 6, 2021,” U.S. Circuit Judge Florence Pan wrote. She was joined by Circuit Judges Cornelia Pillard and Michelle Childs. Judge Pillard was appointed by President Obama; Judges Pan and Childs were appointed by President Joe Biden.

    The full court denied a rehearing en banc, although four judges said “we should not have endorsed this gambit,” referring to the combination of a warrant and nondisclosure order. “Rather than follow established precedent, for the first time in American history, a court allowed access to presidential communications before any scrutiny of executive privilege,” Circuit Judge Neomi Rao wrote in a dissent. The appointee of President Trump was joined by Circuit Judges Gregory Katsas and Justin Walker, other President Trump appointees; and Judge Karen Henderson, an appointee of former President George H.W. Bush.

    The Supreme Court should take up the case because the majority’s opinion conflicts with Supreme Court precedent and rulings from other circuits, lawyers for X said in the new petition.

    “This court has long held that holders of executive privilege must have notice and an opportunity to assert privilege before confidentiality of the potentially privileged documents is breached. The decision below departs from that precedent. Because former President Trump was not informed of the warrant before his records were produced, he could not timely assert executive privilege,” they wrote.

    Several circuit courts have issued contrasting decisions, which creates a split that needs resolved, X lawyers said. That included a ruling from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eleventh Circuit that cleared a protocol for a warrant that involved giving people with attorney-client privilege “the first opportunity to identify potentially privileged materials” and did not let investigators access the materials until the parties or the court approved.

    Another circuit split exists in regard to the nondisclosure order, the lawyers said.

    In Freedman v. Maryland, the Supreme Court ruled that “any restraint prior to judicial review can be imposed only briefly in order to preserve the status quo.” While two circuit courts have found the ruling does not apply to nondisclosure orders, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit has found that some nondisclosure orders must adhere to the ruling.

    The conflict “warrants this court’s review,” X lawyers said.

    The appeals court panel also ruled that the government can draw nondisclosure orders on warrants anytime a warrant would result in the production of any information that has not been publicly available, even when the public is aware “of the broader investigation” and grant jury subpoenas.

    “If the ruling remains in place, the government almost always can obtain a nondisclosure order for a new warrant—no matter how public the investigation—because the warrant itself will always be new and ‘different’ information,” X lawyers argued.

    The case implicates not only executive privilege but other types of privilege, including that between a doctor and patient, the lawyers said.

    “In cases involving executive privilege, which typically arise in the D.C. Circuit, the government can now circumvent the [Presidential Records Act] and deny privilege-holders their opportunity to assert privilege by seeking communications from, and gagging, third parties. And in the tens of thousands of other cases where the government obtains nondisclosure orders, the government can invade other privileges—including attorney-client, journalist-source, and doctor-patient—without notice,” they said. “Meanwhile, the First Amendment rights of service providers like Twitter to notify users in time for them to assert privileges can be irreparably injured.”

    The Department of Justice, which employs Mr. Smith, did not respond to a request for comment. Its response to the filing is due by July 3.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/05/2024 – 17:55

  • WHO Confirms Bird Flu Death In Mexico As 'Trust The Science' Experts Want To Test America's 40 Million Cows
    WHO Confirms Bird Flu Death In Mexico As ‘Trust The Science’ Experts Want To Test America’s 40 Million Cows

    The World Health Organization confirmed the first human death linked to avian influenza in Mexico, involving a 59-year-old with no prior history of handling poultry or other animals. This comes as bird flu has been spreading across North America and other regions of the world, infecting various types of animals and humans. 

    “On 23 May 2024, the Mexico International Health Regulations (IHR) National Focal Point (NFP) reported to PAHO/WHO a confirmed fatal case of human infection with avian influenza A(H5N2) virus detected in a resident of the State of Mexico who was hospitalized in Mexico City.

    “This is the first laboratory-confirmed human case of infection with an influenza A(H5N2) virus reported globally and the first avian H5 virus infection in a person reported in Mexico. Although the source of exposure to the virus in this case is currently unknown, A(H5N2) viruses have been reported in poultry in Mexico. According to the IHR (2005), a human infection caused by a novel influenza A virus subtype is an event that has the potential for high public health impact and must be notified to the WHO. Based on available information, WHO assesses the current risk to the general population posed by this virus as low.” -WHO 

    The WHO’s statement continued: 

    “… confirmed case of human infection with avian influenza A(H5N2) virus detected in a 59-year-old resident of the State of Mexico who was hospitalized in Mexico City and had no history of exposure to poultry or other animals. The case had multiple underlying medical conditions. The case’s relatives reported that the case had already been bedridden for three weeks, for other reasons, prior to the onset of acute symptoms.” 

    Earlier Wednesday, Dutch virologist Dr. Marion Koopmans wrote on X, “The expanding list of wild mammals affected by the (global) epizootic of highly pathogenic avian influenza. This data is for the US. Adding mice to the list (the blue circle in New Mexico).” 

    Koopmans also published a USDA map showing bird flu detections in an ever-expanding list of mammals. 

    STAT News recently spoke with Dutch virologist Ron Fouchier, a leading expert on the bird flu, who provided some insight into the outbreak:

    “You have massive outbreaks in wild birds. It spreads over into poultry quite easily. But in humans we see lower numbers, and that to me suggests that the zoonotic risk has decreased.” 

    Meanwhile, Nita Madhav, a former US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention researcher who is now senior director of epidemiology and modeling at Ginkgo Biosecurity, warned Scientific American, “The more it spreads within mammals, that gives it more chances to mutate. As it mutates, as it changes, there is a greater chance it can infect humans. If it gains the ability to spread efficiently from person to person, then it would be hard to stop.” 

    About a week ago, news broke the Biden Administration was nearing a deal to bankroll Moderna’s vaccine against bird flu. 

    Remember Deborah Birx, a physician who served as former President Trump’s Covid response coordinator? Well, she said earlier today about weekly testing of the nation’s cattle herd population. 

    “We should be testing every cow weekly,” Birx said, adding, “We could be pool testing every dairy worker.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Jordan Schachtel notes… 

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    The WHO’s chief scientist, Jeremy Farrar, has recently said the bird flu amongst cows “is very concerning.” 

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    In recent notes, we penned “The Escalating Threat Of Avian Influenza H5N1 And The Ethical Quandary Of Gain-of-Function Research” and “Former CDC Director Sounds Alarm Over Bird Flu Experiments.”

    The question arises: if human-to-human cases surge and it’s clear that the WHO’s focus for this pandemic is cows, what actions will the government be forced to take regarding these animals? However, don’t worry—if cows are culled to save the planet from bird flu, Bill Gates will be ready to offer cricket burgers and fake meat New York strips.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/05/2024 – 17:30

  • "A Blatant Lie": The Biden Campaign Falsely Accuses Fox's John Roberts Of Lying About The Insulin Caps
    “A Blatant Lie”: The Biden Campaign Falsely Accuses Fox’s John Roberts Of Lying About The Insulin Caps

    Authored by Jonathan Turley,

    Winston Churchill once said that “A lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on.”

    It often seems like the Biden White House and campaign has embraced that warning as an operating principle.

    The most recent target was the veteran Fox news anchor John Roberts, who was accused of airing “a blatant lie” in questioning Biden’s claim that he was the first president to push through a cap of $35 on insulin treatments. Roberts was entirely correct, but the campaign has still not removed the false attack on his integrity and accuracy.

    In the interests of full disclosure, I am a legal analyst for Fox News and I have known Roberts for decades. There is no one who I hold in higher regard for his integrity or his intellect than John Roberts. We have known and worked with each other at different networks through the years. Roberts is an old-school journalist with impeccable credentials.

    Yesterday, the Biden campaign launched the attack on Roberts for his questioning of the claim of President Joe Biden that he solely secured the insulin cap. Roberts remarked that he had a recollection that it was former President Donald Trump who pushed the cap.

    “I seem to remember that back in May of 2020, Centers for Medicare & Medicaid said that President Trump had signed an executive order to cap the price of insulin for Medicare recipients at 35 bucks. Now, maybe I’m misremembering that, but I think it kind of already happened.”

    The Biden campaign then called it “a blatant lie” in a posting on X that has reached over a million people.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Contrary to the Biden campaign’s claims, Roberts’s recollection was entirely correct. Under the Trump Administration, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services announced in May 2020 that the Part D Senior Savings Model participating plans would cap insulin copays to $35 per month’s supply, and over 1,750 Medicare Advantage and Medicare Part D plans applied to offer lower insulin costs.

    Trump praised the new policy, which was widely covered by the press.

    There was a Rose Garden event where Trump was praised for his actions:

    Trump later, in July 2020, signed four executive orders aimed at lowering the cost of insulin. That included Executive Order 13937, which required Federally Qualified Health Centers to pass 340B discounts on to patients. Notably, Biden later reversed Executive Order 13937 before those cost-saving measures could take effect.

    This is obviously not the first false statement from the President. However, it is notable that his campaign spread obvious disinformation that was picked up by over a million people but then declined to take down the false claim. The campaign is now in a worse position. To take down the posting is to acknowledge not just that it has lied about Roberts, but that the President lied in taking sole credit for this cap.

    This is the same administration supporting the banning, blacklisting, and throttling of those responsible for disinformation. I would not support such censorship of the campaign. This and other columns refuting the false account is sufficient to combat a “blatant lie” by the Biden campaign. Whether it is his uncle being eaten by cannibals or insulin caps, free speech can correct false claims without government regulation. However, President Biden and his administration continue to push for censorship of others accused for false or misleading statements.

    The fact that John Roberts was right is hardly surprising. However, there remains a “blatant lie” on the Biden campaign’s social media that must still be corrected.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/05/2024 – 17:15

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