Jun 20

Today’s News 20th June 2024

  • Nasrallah Says 'No Place' Safe, Even Threatens Cyprus, If Israel Invades Lebanon
    Nasrallah Says ‘No Place’ Safe, Even Threatens Cyprus, If Israel Invades Lebanon

    Amid widespread reports and statements that Israel and Hezbollah are on the brink of full-scale war, the Shia paramilitary group’s leader Hassan Nasrallah has warned of a war “without rules or ceilings” if Israeli forces launch an offensive in Lebanon.

    The words were given in response to Israel’s top generals the day prior announcing that battle plans have been approved for a Lebanon offensive and widening of the war. The IDF statement said it is preparing to “accelerate readiness in the field.”

    “The enemy must wait for us by air, land, and sea. We repeat: If war is imposed on Lebanon, the resistance will fight without rules, controls, or ceilings,” Nasrallah responded Tuesday.

    “Storming the Galilee is a possibility that remains present within the framework of any war that the occupation may launch against Lebanon,” Hezbollah’s Secretary-General continued.

    And that’s when he for the first time of the conflict which began in wake of Oct.7 issued a warning against Cyprus, given that the Greek-speaking island-nation currently has a bilateral defense cooperation agreement with Israel.

    “Opening Cypriot airports and bases to the Israeli enemy to target Lebanon would mean that the Cypriot government is part of the war, and the resistance will deal with it as part of the war,” Nasrallah said.

    He further warned that targets in the Mediterranean would also come under attack. In 2006 the Israeli Navy’s INS Hanit warship suffered a direct hit from a Hezbollah anti-ship missile (likely made by Iran), killing four soldiers.

    His fresh words are also being interpreted by Israeli media to say gas fields in the Mediterranean and energy platforms could also be attacked:

    Israel “knows that what also awaits it in the Mediterranean is very big,” Nasrallah added, without elaborating, possibly insinuating the group could attack its offshore gas rigs.

    The Israeli warship, Hanit, which was attacked by Hezbollah during the 2006 Lebanon War. TOI/Flash90

    While Israel is not known to have any bases or ports in Cyprus, it has on occasion conducted joint military drills with Cypriot forces.

    More likely is a scenario where Israeli jets would take off from Cypriot bases – or else one of the two British bases maintained on Cyprus. Any bigger Israeli anti-Hezbollah operation in Lebanon would without doubt involve a ratcheting air war over southern Lebanon.

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    Nasrallah in his Tuesday statement warned further, “We developed some of our weapons and used new weapons that we had not used previously.” Israeli leaders are concerned about recent drone image Hezbollah was able to capture over Haifa, which is Israel’s third largest city.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 06/20/2024 – 02:45

  • Hegemon Orders Europe: Bet On War & Steal Russia's Money
    Hegemon Orders Europe: Bet On War & Steal Russia’s Money

    Authored by Pepe Escobar,

    The Swiss “peace” kabuki came and went – and the winner was Vladimir Putin. He didn’t even have to show up…

    None of the Big Players did. Or in case they sent their emissaries, there was significant refusal to sign the vacuous final declaration – as in BRICS members Brazil, India, Saudi Arabia, UAE and South Africa.

    Without BRICS, there’s absolutely nothing the collective West – as in The Hegemon and assorted vassals – can do to alter the proxy war chessboard in Ukraine.

    In his carefully calibrated speech to diplomats and the leadership of Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Putin delineated an incredibly restrained and strategic approach to solve the Ukraine problem. In the context of the Hegemon’s escalatory green light – actually in practice for several months now – for Kiev to attack deeper into the Russian Federation, Putin’s offer was extremely generous.

    That is a direct offer to the Hegemon and the collective West – as the sweaty T-shirt actor in Kiev, apart from illegitimate, is beyond irrelevant.

    Predictably, NATO – via that epileptic slab of Norwegian wood – already proclaimed its refusal to negotiate, even as some relatively awake members of the Verkhovna Rada (Ukraine’s parliament) started discussing the offer, according to Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin.

    Moscow sees the Verkhovna Rada as the only legitimate entity in Ukraine – and the only one with which would be possible to reach an agreement.

    Russian UN representative Vasily Nebenzya cut to the chase – diplomatically: if the generous proposal is refused, next time conditions for starting negotiations will be “different”. And “far more unfavorable”, according to Duma Defense Committee head Andrei Kartapolov.

    As Nebenzya stressed that in case of a refusal the collective West will bear full responsibility for further bloodshed, Kartapolov elaborated on the Big Picture: Russia’s real target is to create a whole new security system for the Eurasian space.

    And that, of course, is anathema to the Hegemon’s elites.

    Putin’s security vision for Eurasia harks back to this legendary speech at the Munich Security Conference in 2007. Now, with the steady advance of an irreversible multi-nodal (italics mine) and multi-centric new system of international relations, the Kremlin is pressing for an urgent solution – considering the extremely dangerous escalation of these past few months.

    Putin once again had to remind the deaf, dumb and blind of the obvious:

    “Calls to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia, which has the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons, demonstrate the extreme adventurism of Western politicians. They either do not understand the scale of the threat they themselves create, or they are simply obsessed with the belief in their own immunity and their own exclusivity. Both can turn into a tragedy”.

    They remain deaf, dumb and blind.

    A proposal that does not solve anything?

    A fiery debate is raging in informed circles in Russia about Putin’s proposal. Critics blast it as a capitulation – forced by selected oligarchs and influential business circles, adverse to an “almost war” (the preferred motto) that keeps postponing the inevitable decapitation strike.

    Critics argue that the military strategy is totally subordinated to a political strategy. And that would explain the serious problems in the Black Sea and in Transnistria: the political center of power refuses to conquer the number one economic/military target, which is Odessa.

    Additionally, Ukraine’s weapon supply chains are not being properly interrupted.

    The key critical point is “this is taking too long”. One just needs to look at the example of Mariupol.

    In 2014, Mariupol was left in the control of nazi-banderista gangs as part of a financial deal with Rinat Akhmetov, the owner of the Azovstal works. That’s a classic case of oligarchs and financiers prevailing over military objectives.

    Putin’s generosity, visible in this latest peace offer, also elicits a parallel with what happened in Dara’a in Syria: Russia also negotiated what looked at first like a peace deal. Yet Dara’a remains a mess, extremely violent, with Syrian and Russian soldiers at risk.

    It gets really tricky when the current proposal only asks NATO not to be encroached in Kiev; but at the same time Kiev will be allowed to have an army, based on the (aborted) April 2022 negotiations in Istanbul.

    Critics also argue that Putin seems to believe that this proposal will solve the war. Not really. A real de-nazification campaign is an affair of decades – involving everything from full demilitarization to eradicating focuses of extremist ideology. A real cultural revolution.

    The current escalation already is in tune with the orders given by the rarefied plutocracy who really runs the show to messengers – and operatives: nazi-banderista gangs will unleash a War of Terror inside Russia for years. From Ukraine territory. Just like Idlib in Syria remains a terror-friendly environment.

    The Odessa file

    Putin’s strategy may be on to something that escapes his critics. His wish for a return of peace and the re-establishment of sound relations with Kiev and the West has got to be a ruse – as he’s the first to know that’s not gonna happen.

    It’s clear that Kiev will not willingly cede territory: these will have to be conquered in the battlefield. Moreover NATO simply cannot sign its cosmic humiliation on the dotted line, accepting that Russia will get what it is demanding since February 2022.

    Putin’s first – diplomatic – objective though has already been met. He has clearly demonstrated to the Global Majority he’s open to solve the dilemma in a serene atmosphere, while discombobulated NATO keeps shrieking “War!” every other minute.

    The Hegemon wants war? So war it will be – to the last Ukrainian.

    And that brings us to the Odessa file.

    Putin, crucially, did not say anything about Odessa. This is Kiev’s last chance saloon to keep Odessa. If the peace proposal is rejected for good, Odessa will feature in the next list of non-negotiables.

    Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, once again, nailed it: “Putin is patient. Those with ears will hear, those with brains will understand”.

    No one should expect working brains popping up across the West. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has confirmed how NATO is planning massive installations in Poland, Romania and Slovakia to “coordinate transfer of weapons to Ukraine”.

    Add to it the epileptic slab of Norwegian wood stating that NATO is “discussing” bringing their nuclear weapons to a state of combat readiness “in the face of the growing threat from Russia and China”.

    Once again Old Stolty gives away the game: note this is all about the Hegemon’s paranoia with the top two “existential threats”, the

    Russia-China strategic partnership. That is, the leaders of BRICS coordinating the drive towards a multipolar, multi-nodal (italics mine), “harmonic” (Putin’s terminology) world.

    Stealing Russian money is legal

    Then there’s the blatant theft of Russian financial assets.

    At their sorry spectacle in Puglia, in southern Italy, the G7 – in the presence of the illegitimate sweaty T-shirt actor – agreed to shove an extra $50 billion in loans to Ukraine, funded by the interest on Russia’s frozen and for all practical purposes stolen assets.

    With impeccably twisted logic, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni – whose hairdressing and wardrobe revamp conclusively did not apply to her brains – said that the G7 “will not confiscate frozen assets of the Russian Federation”; “we are talking about the interest that they accumulate over time.”

    As financial scams go, this one is a thing of beauty.

    Essentially, the main customer (the Hegemon) and its instrument (the EU) are trying to mask the actual theft of those “frozen” Russian sovereign assets as if this was a legal transaction.

    The EU will transfer the “frozen” assets – something around $260 billion – to the status of collateral for the American loan. That’s the whole thing – because only the income deriving from the assets would not be enough as collateral to secure the loan.

    It gets even dicier. These funds will not leave Washington for Kiev; they will remain in town to the benefit of the industrial-military complex churning out more weapons.

    So the EU steals the assets, under a flimsy legalese pretext (Janet Yellen already said it’s OK) and transfers them to the U.S. Washington is immune if everything goes wrong – as it will.

    Only a fool would believe that the Americans would give a sizable loan to a de facto country 404 with a sovereign debt rating in the abyss. The dirty job is assigned to the Europeans: it’s up to the EU to change the status of Russia’s stolen/”frozen” assets to collateral.

    And wait for the ultimate dicey gambit. The whole scheme concerns Euroclear, in Belgium – where the largest amount of Russian funds is parked. Yet the decision on this money-laundering scam was not taken by Belgium, and not even by the EUrocrats.

    This was a Hegemon-imposed G7 decision.

    Belgium is not even part of the G7. Yet in the end, it will be the EU’s “credibility” as a whole that will go down the drain across the whole Global Majority.

    And the deaf, dumb and blind, predictably, are not even aware of it.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 06/20/2024 – 02:00

  • The Gain-Of-Function Experiment That Could 'Eliminate Humans From The Face Of The Earth'
    The Gain-Of-Function Experiment That Could ‘Eliminate Humans From The Face Of The Earth’

    Authored by Ross Pomeroy via RealClearScience,

    A Google search for “Frio Cave” makes the Uvalde County, Texas destination look like a tourists’ dream. One quickly learns that the cave is home to tens of millions of Mexican free-tailed bats, and that you can sometimes witness the flapping horde streaming out of their dark, dank home just before sunset, clouding the sky in a “once in a lifetime experience.”

    But Frio Cave has a darker history that visitors websites don’t mention. More than fifty years ago, two humans contracted rabies while spelunking there.

    That humans would get infected with rabies while visiting a bat-infested cave isn’t altogether surprising. Bats are a reservoir for the terrifying disease – 99% fatal to humans once symptoms – like hyperactivity, hallucinations, seizures, and fear of water – develop. A simple bite from one of the millions of bats could have transmitted a lyssavirus that triggers rabies. However, in this instance, the spelunkers apparently weren’t bitten. Rather, it seems they caught the virus from the air itself.

    A team of scientists subsequently investigated. They found that rabies virus could be transmitted to animals housed in empty cages within the cave, apparently just via the atmosphere itself. Moreover, the virus was isolated from samples collected via air condensation techniques.

    The episode raised a disturbing prospect. Had rabies, the deadliest virus for humankind, gone airborne?

    To be clear, it had not, at least not in a manner that would result in ultra-contagious, human-to-human spread. The sheer number of rabies-carrying bats in the cave likely transformed it into a “hot-box” of infection. Rabies remains transmitted almost entirely through bites and scratches from infected animals, and it is rapidly inactivated by sunlight and heat. However, for safety, members of the general public are now only allowed to enter Frio Cave on guided tours that remain near the mouth of the cave.

    That doesn’t mean that rabies virus couldn’t mutate to become transmitted through the air. It’s an RNA virus, and these are known to have high mutation rates. Indeed, scientists have found “a vast array of antigenic variants of this pathogen in a wide range of animal hosts and geographic locations.”

    Moreover, as two Italian scientists wrote in a 2021 article, “Even single amino acid mutations in the proteins of Rabies virus can considerably alter its biological characteristics, for example increasing its pathogenicity and viral spread in humans, thus making the mutated virus a tangible menace for the entire mankind.”

    Another possible route for this to occur would be through a “gain-of-function” experiment, in which researchers employ gene-editing to tweak the rabies virus, making it evade current vaccines and endowing it with the ability to spread through the air like measles or influenza. Gain-of-function research has earned increased public scrutiny of late as there’s a small, outside chance it may have produced SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19.

    Paul Offit, a professor of pediatrics at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia and co-inventor of a rotavirus vaccine, commented on the potential to augment rabies through gain-of-function in a recent Substack post.

    “In the absence of an effective vaccine, it could eliminate humans from the face of the earth. The good news is that no one has tried to make rabies virus more contagious. But that doesn’t mean that it’s not possible or that no one would be willing to try.”

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/19/2024 – 23:05

  • The U.S. Could Take A Page From Australia's Natural Gas Playbook
    The U.S. Could Take A Page From Australia’s Natural Gas Playbook

    Authored by Paul Everingham via RealClearEnergy,

    The U.S Government could do far worse than to look to Australia’s natural gas policy as it considers the future of LNG exports.

    Gas production from the U.S.  and Australia is essential to global energy markets. Australia was the world’s leading LNG exporter in 2020 and 2021, a mantle the U.S. assumed in 2023.

    But the LNG industry in both countries has faced great policy uncertainty in recent times. In the U.S., this arrived with the unexpected January announcement of a halt to pending LNG export approvals, while Australia’s policy environment has been clouded for several years by cumbersome regulatory processes that stifled project development.

    The Future Gas Strategy released by the Australian Government in May addresses many of these concerns and establishes a roadmap future gas production investment. It outlines a clear role for gas in Australia’s energy transition, ensuring reliable power generation as major renewable energy projects are rolled out.

    Critically, it identifies the vital long-term contribution that Australian LNG will make in ensuring energy security for traditional customers in Asia and supporting emerging nations in the region as they look to reduce their reliance on high-emitting coal.

    While the Future Gas Strategy is underpinned by International Energy Agency (IEA) projections for global gas demand, it notes great variations between differing scenarios and early indications that real-life demand may exceed modelling. It acknowledges forecasts for much higher gas demand in Asia from reputable sources that know the region best, such as the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan.

    Thus far, flexibility around demand forecasts, including those of Asia, doesn’t seem to have had much of a place in dialogue around the U.S LNG export halt.

    As the U.S Chamber of Commerce has identified, the Department of Energy has seemingly sidelined gas projections from the U.S. Government’s own Energy Information Administration to use IEA data. However, many of the IEA projections are not forecasts based on practical assessments of future need but instead work backwards from decarbonization targets.

    Backcasting is not the same as providing accurate forecasts of future need on which to base energy policy.

    While climate targets are necessary to deliver the Paris Agreement, backcasting fails to account for the energy realities of growing, emerging economies. This runs the risk of creating a future shortfall of low-carbon gas, forcing economies in Asia back to coal or creating energy insecurity.

    Important climate objectives won’t be achieved if Asia’s growing coal use becomes even more entrenched. Global coal use reached record levels in 2023, with three out of every four tons consumed in India, China and Southeast Asia. Without sufficiently available and affordable volumes of LNG from a range of exporting countries, this pattern will be hard to break.

    The Australian Future Gas Strategy reflects this, describing how “continued supply of LNG can reduce the carbon intensity of our region’s energy mix, including by replacing more emissions intensive fuels like coal.”

    It also challenges the Australian gas industry to keep reducing its own carbon footprint, including through development of carbon capture and storage technology. I am sure Australian gas producers are up for that challenge, just as I know the U.S. gas industry is committed to doing everything within its power to address greenhouse gas emissions.

    U.S. gas producers already operate under one of the world’s most comprehensive and stringent methane management frameworks, established by the Environmental Protection Agency.

    A comprehensive recent study by the Berkeley Research Group, underpinned primarily by methane emissions data from operations, demonstrates U.S. LNG is far cleaner than the coal currently being used for power generation in Asia.

    The U.S. gas industry and its customers right now are facing uncertainty, the enemy of long-horizon investments with major capital outlays, such as those into LNG. An open-ended halt to approvals makes long-term decision-making on LNG infrastructure all but impossible.

    U.S. LNG has already showed it can be a force for good from an energy security perspective, stepping up to stabilize Europe’s energy systems after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It can be similarly beneficial for allies in Asia, ensuring supply diversity, along with availability and affordability of gas that coal-dependent emerging nations are actively seeking.

    The Australian Government has now publicly recognized the global benefits of its natural gas.

    By expeditiously resolving the halt, the Biden Administration can do likewise – giving U.S. LNG exporters and Asian trading partners the certainty needed to move rapidly towards an achievable low-carbon future, at scale and without killing economic opportunities.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/19/2024 – 22:30

  • Life Of O'Brien
    Life Of O’Brien

    By Teeuwe Mevissen, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

    Yesterday, news came out that Trump’s last national security advisor Robert O’Brien has written an article that will be published in the next edition of the renowned foreign policy magazine Foreign Affairs. While it is of course not sure that Trump will win the upcoming election – although we still see this as our base case scenario – O’Brien could very well become part of Trump’s administration again.

    Indeed, only recently Robert O’Brien said he remains in regular contact with the former president. So what does O’Brien propose according to the news that leaked out yesterday? Perhaps this could be summarized best by quoting O’Brien himself who apparently writes that: “As China seeks to undermine American economic and military strength, Washington should return the favour,”.

    But let’s provide a bit more detail. Economically he apparently suggests decoupling from China. Furthermore he ”argues that the 60% tariffs on China that Trump has floated should be only the first step, followed by tougher export controls ’on any technology that might be of use to China‘ and other measures”. Given how interwoven both economies still are and given that we are talking about the two largest economies in the world, it should be clear that such a policy would have a significant impact on the global economy as well.

    But it doesn’t end with trade. O’ Brien also proposes a highly assertive, if not aggressive, foreign policy aimed at deterring and containing China in the region. “This morass of American weakness and failure cries out for a Trumpian restoration of peace through strength,” as O’ Brien puts it. He continuous by suggesting to help ”expand the militaries of Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam, increase military assistance to Taiwan and boost missile defense and fighter jet protection in the region”. 

    Last but not least on the military side of things he advocates new underground nuclear testing and the resumption in the US of the production of uranium-235 and plutonium 239 which is used for nuclear warheads. When we add recent remarks from Stoltenberg to dust the West’s nuclear arsenal off and take into account Putin’s tour to North-Korea we might want to return to the life of O’ Brian and look at the bright side of life!

    * * *

    Meanwhile, US retail sales growth disappointed and even contracted with 0.1% when car sales were not included. Industrial production however rose far more sharply than expected with 0.9% MoM while a rise of 0.3% was expected. Looking at yesterday’s inflation data from the Eurozone there was some good news indeed. While a leap in services inflation had been reported in May and the final measure for headline and core inflation came in unchanged versus the preliminary readings of respectively 2.6% and 2.9%, much of this rise could be attributed to so called one offs, in particular the impact of the Easter holidays.

    We also saw that administered cost increases played a significant role. These are costs that are partly or wholly set by governments, municipalities and the like. According to our calculations this contributed some 0.15ppt to the rise in services inflation. The implication of this is that the May inflation numbers were not as bad as they looked. And, stripping this out of the regular core measure and excluding indirect taxes, Eurozone ‘super core’ inflation stayed unchanged in Maty at 2.6% and remains on a (very gentle) downward path. With cost pressures expected to continue to come down gradually, we retain our view of two more ECB rate cuts for this year bringing the deposit rate at 3.25% at the end of this year.

     Turning to the UK, there the inflation news out this morning was a little less bright, but enough to keep the faith. In May 2024, the monthly CPI registered at 0.3% m/m, a rate slightly above target. However, the annual rate did see a decline to 2%, thanks to a favourable base effect. A significant factor contributing to the decrease was the food sector, where prices dropped 0.3% m/m this May, contrasting with 0.9% m/m increase in May last year. On the other hand, the transport sector provided the most substantial upward pressure, albeit only partially counterbalancing the overall trend.

    Within the realm of services, the decline was driven by recreational and personal services, notably catering, package holidays, and cultural services. This was somewhat mitigated by the costs associated with housing services. With inflation falling to the 2% target, the spotlight shifts to the Bank of England. Our UK watcher Stefan Koopman thinks it’s improbable that interest rates will be cut at tomorrow’s meeting, but the numbers are good enough to make a cut in August still the base case. He also thinks that Rishi Sunak may seize the opportunity to associate himself with this ‘success’ today.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/19/2024 – 21:55

  • US Army Soldier Handed Stiff Prison Sentence By Russian Court For Theft
    US Army Soldier Handed Stiff Prison Sentence By Russian Court For Theft

    Another American citizen in Russian custody has been handed a stiff prison sentence by a Russian court, but this time Kremlin authorities say it has nothing to do with espionage and that it’s not a political matter.

    On Wednesday a court in the far eastern city of Vladivostok sentenced active duty Army soldier, 34-year old Staff Sgt. Gordon Black, to nearly four years in prison on a conviction for theft. He had pled guilty to stealing, and there are reports he had also been charged with making threats of murder.

    Gordon Black in court. AFP/Getty Images

    He had been arrested in Vladivostok on May 2, after which he’s been in pretrial detention, for allegedly stealing 10,000 rubles (or roughly $112) from his Russian girlfriend. He also stood accused of assaulting the woman, but did not admit guilt to that or the death threats.

    The whole story is bizarre especially given that the personal travel of active duty military personnel is typically highly controlled or monitored by their bases and command. So how did a US Army Staff Sgt. end up going to Russia?

    Black had been stationed at Camp Humphreys in South Korea, and the Department of Defense now says he took an unauthorized trip to Russia after he was formally processed out of Camp Humphreys to be transferred to a base in Texas. What’s more is that he may have gone through China while en route to Russia, Reuters says.

    He had first met the Russian girlfriend, identified in media reports as Aleksandra Vashchuk, in South Korea and subsequently traveled to see her. Black’s family has claimed that he was “set up” by the Russian girl. CNN summarizes of some of the details:

    Speaking to the Pervomaisky District Court on Monday, Black said he took the money from the woman’s purse, but the next day transferred $125 to her. He said he spent the money on food and three nights in a hotel, according to RIA.

    He also said the woman was to collect a deposit of 10,000 rubles from the landlord after the end of the lease of the apartment for which he was paying, RIA said.

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    Meanwhile two other Americans with more serious cases – and who have been declared by the US as “wrongfully detained” – are still in Russian prisons: former Marine Paul Whelan and Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich. Their detentions stem from alleged espionage.

    Another American, school teacher Marc Fogel, has served nearly three years in Russian prison on a drug-related conviction; however, the US government has not declared him wrongfully detained, which has outraged his family which is now suing the federal government.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/19/2024 – 21:20

  • DOJ Charges Texas Doctor Who Exposed 'Gender-Affirming' Care For Minors
    DOJ Charges Texas Doctor Who Exposed ‘Gender-Affirming’ Care For Minors

    Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The Department of Justice (DOJ) on Monday unsealed an indictment against Dr. Eithan Haim, who last year leaked evidence of cross-sex hormone procedures being performed at a Texas hospital despite the facility claiming to have halted them, with the surgeon facing four felony counts for alleged violations of a medical-records law that could land him in prison for up to 10 years.

    Protesters opposing medical transgender procedures for youths gathered at the American Academy of Pediatrics convention in Anaheim, Calif., on Oct. 7, 2022. (Courtesy of TreVoices.Org/Scott Newgent)

    The DOJ announced on June 17 that it had charged Dr. Haim for obtaining protected individual health information for patients who were not under his care, allegedly acting without authorization and with intent to cause malicious harm to Texas Children’s Hospital (TCH).

    The controversy centers on the fact that TCH, the largest children’s hospital in the country, publicly declared in March 2022 that it was halting “hormone-related prescription therapies for gender-affirming services” for minors, citing potential legal and criminal liability after Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton declared that prescription of puberty blockers was “child abuse” under Texas law.

    Documents leaked by Dr. Haim purportedly showed that the hospital continued to perform some “gender-affirming” therapies after the announcement, including one procedure on an 11-year-old three days after it made the declaration.

    Ultimately, Texas legislators adopted a ban on sex-change procedures and puberty blocker prescriptions for children, which went into effect in mid-2023 after a legal challenge. TCH declared that year that it would no longer offer any transgender medical procedures for children.

    Dr. Haim, who was set to make a court appearance on June 17 before U.S. Magistrate Yvonne Y. Ho in Houston, faces 10 years in prison and a $250,000 maximum possible fine if convicted on charges of violating the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA).

    A request for comment on Dr. Haim’s indictment sent to TCH public relations department was not immediately returned.

    Alamdar Hamdani, U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Texas, who announced Dr. Haim’s indictment, said in a statement that the “defendant is presumed innocent unless convicted through due process of law.”

    On June 16, a day before he was set to head to court, Dr. Haim issued a message about the case.

    “We will face down those who are committed to corrupting our institutions and who are destroying the future my daughter deserves,” he wrote in a post on X. “So to all the fathers out there, I would say one thing. We can never submit to our children’s destroyers, we must fight relentlessly to preserve their dignity, and we must be ready to sacrifice for their future.”

    More Details

    Last year, Dr. Haim anonymously leaked evidence to City Journal’s Christopher Rufo that TCH was conducting transgender treatments on minors in the days after publicly announcing in 2022 that it would no longer be offering such procedures.

    “After assessing the Attorney General’s and Governor’s actions, Texas Children’s Hospital paused hormone-related prescription therapies for gender-affirming services. This step was taken to safeguard our healthcare professionals and impacted families from potential criminal legal ramifications,” TCH said in a March 2022 statement to media outlets.

    That came after the Texas attorney general in February 2022 released an opinion from the Texas Department of Family and Protective Services that certain procedures done on minors “such as castration, fabrication of a ‘penis’ using tissue from other body parts, fabrication of a ’vagina‘ involving the removal of male sex organs, prescription of puberty-suppressors and infertility-inducers, and the like are all ’abuse’ under section 261.001 of the Texas Family Code.”

    In its statement announcing a pause on certain “gender-affirming” therapies, TCH said its mission is “to create a healthier future for all children, including transgender children, within the bounds of the law.”

    Mr. Rufo’s article cited the documents provided by Dr. Haim and concluded that despite TCH’s announcement, it hadn’t stopped performing transgender procedures on minors including the use of implantable puberty blockers.

    Mr. Rufo’s article cited TCH spokeswoman Kelley Carville as declining comment at the time.

    A request for comment on the case sent to Ms. Carville was not immediately returned.

    In a follow-up article, Mr. Rufo wrote that “nothing in the information provided to me identified any individual” and that the documents provided by Dr. Haim had been “carefully redacted.”

    Mr. Rufo cited one of Dr. Haim’s attorneys, Marcella Burke, as expressing confidence that the trial would end with her client being declared innocent.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/19/2024 – 20:45

  • Grid Collapse: Ecuador Hit By Nationwide Power Blackout
    Grid Collapse: Ecuador Hit By Nationwide Power Blackout

    A nationwide power blackout hit Ecuador on Wednesday afternoon, plunging 17 million people into darkness. Authorities are working to repair a faulty transmission line that was responsible for the outage.

    “The immediate report that we received from the CENACE (National Center of Energy Control) is that there is a failure in the transmission line that caused a cascade disconnection, so there is no energy service on a national scale,” Public Works Minister Roberto Luque wrote on X.

    Luque added, “We are concentrating all our efforts on resolving the problem as quickly as possible.”

    The blackout has paralyzed a major subway system in the South American country. There are reports that hospitals in major cities are without power. This comes months after Ecuadorean President Daniel Noboa declared a power emergency and ordered eight-hour nationwide rationing due to lower hydroelectricity power generation levels. 

    Internet tracking website NetBlocks reports that Ecuador’s national connectivity plunged to 44% shortly after the power outage. 

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    *Developing… 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/19/2024 – 20:10

  • House Ethics Panel Probing Alleged Gaetz Obstruction, Misconduct
    House Ethics Panel Probing Alleged Gaetz Obstruction, Misconduct

    Authored by Samantha Flom via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The House Ethics Committee, in a rare statement on June 18, announced that it is investigating new claims of misconduct against Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), including whether he sought to obstruct government probes of his conduct.

    Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) leaves a House Republican caucus meeting at the U.S. Capitol in Washington on Oct. 3, 2023. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

    The statement was issued a day after the congressman blasted the Ethics Committee over what he called a political attack.

    The committee defended its investigation, saying it was “confident in the integrity of its process,” which has involved interviewing dozens of witnesses, reviewing thousands of pages of documents, and issuing 25 subpoenas to date.

    The secretive committee began examining a litany of allegations against Mr. Gaetz in April 2021 before deferring its work at the request of the Justice Department. When that request was dropped in May of last year, the committee resumed its work.

    Previous claims against Mr. Gaetz included allegations of sexual misconduct and illicit drug use, sharing inappropriate images or videos on the House floor, misuse of state identification records, personal use of campaign funds, and accepting a bribe, improper gratuity, or impermissible gift.

    “Based on its review to date, the Committee has determined that certain of the allegations merit continued review,” the panel said in a statement, noting that it would extend its probe of the claims surrounding sexual misconduct, drug use, and improper gifts.

    The committee said it will take no further action on the other claims, though it said new allegations had surfaced that merit review. Those include the obstruction claims and accusations that Mr. Gaetz offered special privileges and favors to people with whom he had a personal relationship.

    Mr. Gaetz has categorically denied all the allegations against him, which stemmed from a Justice Department investigation into whether he and fellow Florida Republican Joel Greenberg paid or offered gifts to underage girls and escorts for sex.

    Mr. Gaetz was not charged in that investigation.

    Prior to the committee’s statement, the congressman suggested the panel’s ongoing investigations were retribution for his role in ousting former Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) from the House speakership last October.

    “Instead of working with me to ban Congressional stock trading, the Ethics Committee is now opening new frivolous investigations. They are doing this to avoid the obvious fact that every investigation into me ends the same way: my exoneration,” the congressman wrote on X.

    “This is Soviet. Kevin McCarthy showed them the man, and they are now trying to find the crime. I work for Northwest Floridians who won’t be swayed by this nonsense and McCarthy and his goons know it.”

    Mr. Gaetz spearheaded efforts to strip Mr. McCarthy of the gavel, which eventually succeeded with the help of seven other Republicans and 208 Democrats. Many Republican members remain angry over that move, which some say hurt the party politically. The Ethics panel’s investigations predate the current GOP House majority.

    The Ethics Committee did not respond to a request for comment by press time. A spokesperson for Mr. Gaetz said that his social media post speaks for itself.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/19/2024 – 19:35

  • "Taking Our Extra Time": Boeing Delays Starliner's Return To Earth Amid Thruster Issues
    “Taking Our Extra Time”: Boeing Delays Starliner’s Return To Earth Amid Thruster Issues

    Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft’s return from the International Space Station to Earth will be delayed until mid-next week as NASA and astronauts troubleshoot helium leaks and try to figure out why some of the thrusters failed during the latest test flight.

    At a press briefing on Tuesday, Steve Stich, NASA’s commercial crew program manager, said Starliner would end its first crewed mission to the ISS no earlier than next Wednesday – or about three weeks after it first launched atop a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket from Cape Canaveral, Florida. 

    “We want to give our teams a little bit more time to look at the data, do some analysis, and make sure we’re really ready to come home,” Stich said. 

    He emphasized that during the ISS docking on June 6, five of Starliner’s 28 reaction control thrusters malfunctioned but noted four managed to recover and come back online.

    “We’re taking our extra time given that this is a crewed vehicle, and we want to make sure that we haven’t left any stone unturned,” Stich said, adding, “We also want to look at the systems, and potential interaction between the systems, and make sure we haven’t missed something before we return. And we’re getting a lot of great data while we’re at the space station for not only this flight but for the next flight.”

    Over the weekend, Boeing and NASA conducted a thruster hot-fire test. Stich expressed a high level of confidence in Starliner’s return, stating that everyone involved in the mission ‘feels very confident.’ 

    Starliner is designed for six-month missions. The spacecraft can stay docked at the ISS for 45 days. 

    The latest in-flight problems follow years of challenges Boeing has faced with Starliner. These problems compound the ongoing issues with the company’s commercial jet program that CEO Dave Calhoun was grilled by lawmakers on Capitol Hill on Tuesday.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/19/2024 – 19:00

  • 'Manufacturing Obituaries': Media Falsely Reports Noam Chomsky's Death
    ‘Manufacturing Obituaries’: Media Falsely Reports Noam Chomsky’s Death

    Authored by Brett Wilkins via Common Dreams,

    Some popular media outlets and international political figures came under fire Tuesday for falsely reporting the death of U.S. academic and social critic Noam Chomsky, who is fighting to recover in Brazil after suffering a massive stroke last year.

    “Chomsky did not die. I just spoke to Valéria, his wife,” said Brazilian journalist Cauê Seigner Ameni. “He is well,” Valéria Chomsky confirmed to ABC‘s Chris Looft. Beneficência Portuguesa de São Paulo, a hospital in Brazil’s largest city, said in a statement that Chomsky was discharged on Tuesday to continue his treatment at home, according to The Associated Press.

    picture alliance via Getty Images

    The New Statesman ran—and subsequently deleted—a Chomsky obituary Tuesday following rumors of the 95-year-old’s passing. Other outlets including Jacobin kept or tweaked Chomsky obits, with telltale signs like the word “obituary” in their URLs belying their inaccuracy.

    Commentators from across the political spectrum also posted reaction—from mournful on the progressive left to gleeful among liberals and right-wingers—to false reports of Chomsky’s death.

    “Shameful and sad that Valéria Chomsky had to deny news of Noam Chomsky’s death over the phone here in Brazil, because a bunch of places decided to publish pre-written obituaries and posts at the first online rumor,” Brazilian academic Sabrina Fernandes said on social media.

    “Since no outlet that reported the death decided to post an errata, it only got worse,” she added, condemning “the online scoop and attention industry… waiting… like vultures.”

    Responding to numerous reports of Chomsky’s death in the Latin American corporate media, Mexico City-based Rutgers School of Communications professor Andrew Kennis—whose book Digital Age Resistance contains a foreword co-authored by Chomsky—told Common Dreams that “it is both a fitting and cruel irony that the fundamentally flawed, trillion-dollar-valued, conglomerate-owned, mainstream news media system has once again erred in its ways.”

    “No, Noam is not dead. Instead, he’s struggling to recover with the unflagging dedication of his partner, who transported him the first chance Noam’s health permitted her to do so to receive top-rate medical care in Brazil,” Kennis added.

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    Some observers worked the title of one of Chomsky’s more than 100 books—Manufacturing Consent, which he wrote with Edward Herman—into their commentary on the false reports.

    “Chomsky is NOT dead. If Chomsky was dead, he would be turning in his grave to see how quickly rumors spread and how social media functions,” said Croatian philosopher and Chomsky collaborator Srećko Horvat. “He might as well still call it: ‘manufacturing obituaries’.”

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/19/2024 – 18:25

  • Japan To Issue Bonds With Shorter Maturities As BOJ Begins Tapering QE
    Japan To Issue Bonds With Shorter Maturities As BOJ Begins Tapering QE

    With the constant implosion in the yen threatening to spark both runaway inflation and a currency crisis in Japan, especially after the latest toothless decision by the Bank of Japan, it finally appears that the BOJ is set to either hike rates, or trim its massive bond buying program, or some combination of both.

    And since the BOJ is absolutely terrified of losing control of the Japanese bond market, of which it has been a majority holder for years, it was not surprising to learn that Japan’s Ministry of Finance is already weighing a plan to shift more of its bond issuance to shorter maturities, a major change as the central bank moves to cut purchases of government debt, one which will ensure less turmoil in the all important long-end, where duration is far higher, and where supply should be lower if the BOJ ends up purchasing less.

    According to Bloomberg, Finance Ministry officials have prepared a draft proposal that calls for increasing the proportion of issued bonds with shorter maturities, with an expert panel expected to endorse the plan on Friday.

    The move comes as the Bank of Japan’s decision to cut its bond purchases encourages the government to seek new sources of funding. The BOJ held about ¥590 trillion ($3.7 trillion) in JGBs as of the end of March, representing more than half of the total outstanding. It’s necessary to reduce the amount of yield risk supplied to the market by shortening durations, according to the proposal, which also cites floating-rate bonds as an option.

    Similar to the so-called Yellen Twist, which saw the US Treasury flood the market with Bills in mid/late 2023 to avoid a surge in long-dated yields at a time when the US is issuing record amounts of debt, shortening maturities on bond sales would represent a stark shift from the recent trend in which the Japanese ministry has tended to extend the maturities on bonds it sells as the nation’s policy interest rates have stayed around zero for decades and the BOJ used its yield curve control mechanism to cap long-term yields.

    The BOJ has been terrified of implementing major changes to the country’s petrified bond market, where the BOJ has long been the first and last buyer of any resort: while the central bank ended YCC in March, when it raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years, it did so in the most dovish way imaginable, effectively guiding the market to expect barely any further tightening for the foreseeable future. The yen tumbled. Then, last Friday, the BOJ said it will release details of its plans to reduce bond buying at the July 31 conclusion of its next policy meeting; and since the market was expecting the central bank to actually do something this time instead of just more talk, the yen tumbled even more.

    But it now appears that some definitive move is coming, and ahead of the July disclosure, the bank is meeting with market participants to hear their views.

    The finance ministry’s working draft, prepared ahead of a ministry meeting with market participants and experts on June 21, notes that shortening maturities would increase refinancing and interest risks for the government, so it recommends expanding the pool of government bond holders as much as possible.

    The ministry sent out a questionnaire to market participants, including potential bond buyers such as insurance companies, banks and foreign investors, at the last panel meeting in May. The ministry plans to release the results of that survey in addition to its proposal for future issuance on Friday, the person said.

    According to Bloomberg, the banking sector could become a major new customer to replace the BOJ, a respondent noted in the MOF’s survey. But we strongly doubt it in light of the latest news that Japan’s “farmer” bank, the $700 billion Norinchukin is getting stopped out of its foreign bond holdings which it must sell to plug huge “unrealized” losses. And if Nochu has to sell foreign bonds, how can one possibly expect it to buy Japanese bonds just when yields are expected to keep rising for the foreseeable future as the BOJ embarks on its first tightening campaign in decades.

    The bottom line is that while the BOJ’s plan suggests that the key to JGB management policy is “to create an environment in which the banking sector can hold JGBs with confidence”, the realty is that since in Japan monetary policy has been a total disaster for years, the one guaranteed outcome is that a bond crisis is imminent.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/19/2024 – 17:50

  • Jim Jordan Weighs In On House Resolution Nullifying Bannon, Navarro Charges
    Jim Jordan Weighs In On House Resolution Nullifying Bannon, Navarro Charges

    Submitted by Headline USA,

    A newly drafted resolution in House of Representatives would declare former Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s hand-picked Jan. 6 Committee illegitimate and invalidate the contempt of Congress charges that the J6 committee filed against four top advisers—one of whom has spent the past three months in prison, with another expected to report to jail at the end of June.

    House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, center, flanked by Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., and Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, R-La., talks with reporters about efforts to investigate President Joe Biden and his son Hunter Biden, at the Capitol in Washington, Wednesday, Nov. 29, 2023.  (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

    According to journalist Julie Kelly, the House resolution is being sponsored by Rep. Eric Burlison, R-Mo., and backed by several GOP heavy-hitters, including Reps. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, Andy Biggs of Arizona, Jim Banks of Indiana and Anna Paulina Luna of Florida.

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    However, it also faces at least one powerful skeptic: Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan, R-Ohio.

    In an exclusive interview with Headline USA on June 7, Jordan said that even though he supported the principle of it, he didn’t see it being constructive from a practical standpoint, including helping ex-Trump adviser and well-known right-wing pundit Steve Bannon avoid his sentence.

    “I think both of those contempt [charges] were ridiculous,” Jordan said, in reference to Bannon and Trump trade adviser Peter Navarro, during a June 7 fundraiser for congressional candidate Mark Harris in Monroe, N.C.

    “I opposed them on the House floor when they happened—both Navarro and Bannon—I spoke against them, as well as when they did it to our friend and North Carolina former representative Mark Meadows, when they did to him, spoke against all that,” Jordan added. “But I don’t think that would change—you could have that vote, but I don’t think it’ll change anything relative to what the courts have said and what happens to Bannon. … Even if we pass it, I don’t think it would have an impact.”

    The proposal first picked up steam earlier this month after Massie raised it to Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La. and found many prominent supporters in the Twittersphere.

    “This course of action is not only justified but necessary to restore fairness and balance in our government,” wrote blogger and influencer Alexander Muse.

    “Rescinding these subpoenas and repudiating the January 6th Committee would send a clear message that politically motivated persecutions have no place in our Republic,” he added. “It would also be a significant step towards protecting the integrity of executive privilege and ensuring that partisan politics do not undermine our democratic institutions.”

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    Massie, through his communications director, declined to comment, citing the libertarian lawmaker’s a busy schedule.

    It’s possible, however, that Jordan, a longtime friend and ally of Meadows, sees the prospect of unintended consequences arising from efforts to right the past grievance legislatively, now that Washington, D.C., courts have already ruled on the matter.

    It is highly likely, for example, that Democrats might use a similar tactic in the future to invalidate other committees whose work is legitimate.

    Moreover, giving Bannon a get-out-of-jail-free card would have troubling implications for Meadows—who opted to cooperate with the J6 committee—and Navarro, whose four month sentence will soon be completed.

    The resolution might also derail plans that Jordan and Johnson already have in mind for holding Attorney General Merrick Garland accountable—either legally or otherwise—after he gave himself a free pass last week for the exact same alleged crime: refusing a congressional subpoena on the basis of executive privilege.

    Following Garland’s defiance, Johnson announced that he would be certifying the contempt report with U.S. Attorney for D.C. Matthew Graves and asking a federal court to enforce it.

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    While Graves is unlikely to act, the move may help to extend its shelf life in the hopes that a future Trump administration could pursue it.

    “It is sadly predictable that the Biden Administration’s Justice Department will not prosecute Garland for defying congressional subpoenas even though the department aggressively prosecuted Steve Bannon and Peter Navarro for the same thing,” Johnson said in a statement. “This is yet another example of the two-tiered system of justice brought to us by the Biden Administration.”

    It is also the latest procedural effort, however, for a GOP majority that often has been derided for its ham-fisted toothlessness relative to Pelosi’s iron-fisted ruthlessness in undermining the prior Trump administration.

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    Despite having a laptop teeming with incontrovertible evidence that has now been acknowledged by the FBI as authentic in a court of law, Republicans have been unable to press their impeachment case in any impactful way—and, to some extent, the presence of a two-tiered justice system is a problem of their own making.

    In a fiery speech ahead of last Wednesday’s contempt vote for Garland, Jordan offered a sharp rebuke of President Joe Biden’s top wingman and attack dog in the Justice Department.

    “It’s simple—Attorney General Garland holds information vital to the committee’s legislative oversight and the House impeachment’s inquiry. … The department has a legal obligation to turn over the requested material,” Jordan said.

    “Attorney General Garland’s willful refusal consitutes contempt of Congress,” he continued.  ” … Our oversight and and impeachment responsibilities are too important to allow the attorney general to willfully disregard this.”

    The contempt charge came following Garland’s refusal to turn over the audio recording of Biden’s interview with special counsel Robert Hur in the classified documents probe, which Hur cited as evidence that Biden was too senile to stand trial and that no reasonable jury would convict him due to his failing memory and lack of lucidity.

    The public release of the tapes would likely show that Biden either perjured himself by putting on a bogus act for a probe that has already determined to let him off the hook—or, perhaps more damningly, that the heavily scripted and choreographed Biden presented to the public conceals a commander-in-chief who is genuinely non compos mentis, despite seeking another four-year term.

    In addition to the House committees undertaking an impeachment inquiry, several mainstream media outlets have sued to obtain the recordings under the Freedom of Information Act.

    Yet, the contempt vote against Garland resonated for Republicans on another level after Garland’s overtly political decision to follow through on prosecuting Bannon and Navarro.

    The true objective of the Jan. 6 committee—to push a false, one-sided narrative onto the public that pinned all the blame on President Donald Trump and his supporters—has become ever more apparent as additional information begins to surface.

    Indeed, it amassed several terrabytes worth of data from its Star Chamber proceedings, which it then refused to hand over to Republicans upon ceding power and even attempted illegally to delete.

    Following bombshell footage last week that showed Pelosi admitting responsibility for the security failures at the U.S. Capitol, Rep. Barry Loudermilk, R-Ga., denounced the committee as “biased,” according to Just the News.

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    “[I]t was a political hack job, and the American people and the history books should not take this as any factual account of what happened that day,” he said in an appearance on Real America’s Voice.

    Because they had no direct role in anything related to the Jan. 6 uprising at the Capitol, Bannon and Navarro, along with Meadows and Trump Deputy Chief of Staff Dan Scavino, suspected a fishing expedition was afoot to gather testimony that the committee could then use selectively for its own ulterior objectives.

    But despite citing “executive privilege” as their reason for refusing the subpoenas—arguing that their private conversations with Trump were exempt from oversight—Garland’s DOJ pushed House Democrats’ contempt charges via corrupt, anti-Trump D.C. district judges such as Tanya Chutkan, who declared that Trump had no constitutional right to shield himself from bloodthirsty Democrats’ congressional tribunal.

    Pending a Supreme Court decision on presidential immunity that is expected to drop Thursday morning, Chutkan is now overseeing another case against Trump—special counsel Jack Smith’s prosecution charging Trump with efforts to overturn the 2020 election.

    That case was likely based heavily on the criminal referral supplied by the Jan. 6 committee, emblematic of the sort of mini-ecosystem through which congressional Democrats, corrupt DOJ prosecutors and D.C. federal judges have colluded in order to leapfrog from one political attack on Trump and his allies to the next by agreeing to validate each other.

    “Everyone knows it’s wrong, everyone knows this lawfare has gotten out of control,” Jordan noted in his interview with Headline USA.

    He pointed to efforts that the House was undertaking to derail those efforts, such as a measure to defund any special counsel not approved by the Senate. (Smith is the only one who has not been.)

    Nonetheless, thoze efforts seemed to be mostly symbolic, an exercise in performative outrage.

    Only time may tell if Burlinson’s resolution can succeed in breaking that cycle.

    Ben Sellers is the editor of Headline USA. Follow him at twitter.com/realbensellers.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/19/2024 – 17:15

  • 'This Is Noah' – The Short Story Of A Fentanyl-Addicted Child In Utopian Hellhole San Francisco
    ‘This Is Noah’ – The Short Story Of A Fentanyl-Addicted Child In Utopian Hellhole San Francisco

    The radical leftists in San Francisco City Hall need a reality check about their destructive progressive drug policies that have effectively handed out implicit death sentences. A policy course correction is desperately needed as overdose deaths reached a record high last year. 

    If you have lived or visited San Francisco in recent years, parts of the metro area have been transformed into a utopian progressive hellhole of drugs, death, violent crime, feces, needles, and abandoned retail stores.

    As of last year, overdose deaths in San Francisco topped a record high of 800. Open-air drug markets and homeless encampments are widespread in the downtown area. Failed progressive public health policies are responsible for why the city’s drug overdose rate is nearly double the nation’s. In terms of cities over 500k in population, San Francisco was number four in overdose deaths. 

    Tens of thousands of drug addicts roam the city streets of the metro area, where the drug of choice is fentanyl. This drug, which is 100 times more potent than morphine, is flooding the nation through President Biden’s open southern borders. And it’s being cooked by Mexican cartels that receive chemicals from China (read: House Subcommittee Finds “New Evidence” That China Fuels America’s Fentanyl Crisis). 

    With the overdose crisis only worsening, we want to share with readers a heartbreaking short documentary of a kid way too young to be addicted to fentanyl – getting high in downtown San Francisco. This kid should be entering college, or at least working a productive job, and aims one day to start a family and benefit the nation. But no, he’s addicted to drugs, wasting his life away in the utopian hellhole of a city.

    Citizen journalists are stepping up to the plate since corporate leftist media cannot – nor want to do actual reporting. Instead, they push propaganda from woke leftists in the White House or whatever their mega-corporate sponsors say.

    X user jj smith documented his interactions with 19yo Noah. This video was filmed between Oct. 2022 and through at least the first half of 2023 and shows the young addict’s life on the streets of downtown San Francisco.

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    “The Progressive movement has enabled more drug use in San Francisco more than ever before, and the non-profits who are taking millions of dollars from, have done absolutely nothing to getting kids like Noah help. They feel it’s better to hand out tin foil and straws, rather than getting them the help they truly need,” Jaime Puerta, founder of Victims of Illicit Drug Use or VOID, wrote in a statement in response to the video. 

    This heartbreaking short video makes you want to hug your kids – if you got them – and also reflect on the political elites who have created this environment that has sparked a drug overdose death crisis that is killing two Vietnams of Americans per year.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/19/2024 – 16:40

  • What Recession: NYC Targets Crackdown On $250 To $1000 Dinner Reservation Resellers
    What Recession: NYC Targets Crackdown On $250 To $1000 Dinner Reservation Resellers

    It’s tough to make the case for a recession when Bloomberg just pointed out that more than 30,000 people have flocked to a service called Appointment Trader to help them make ritzy dinner reservations in New York City on a secondary reservation market. 

    The service helps make $250 to as much as $1,000 dinner reservations at some of New York’s best dining spots, though the practice of buying reservations has now come under threat by “New York’s proposed Restaurant Reservation Anti-Piracy Act”, the report says.

    We bet you didn’t even know there was a proposed Restaurant Reservation Anti-Piracy Act.

    And despite the cost, scoring a table at popular spots like Carbone, Cote, Coqodaq, or Don Angie won’t necessarily get easier, the report says, noting that reservation resellers are still seeing high demand. 

    Joel Montaniel, chief executive officer of reservation booking platform Sevenrooms, who works with companies like Danny Meyer’s Union Square Hospitality Group, told Bloomberg: “There are some restaurants that people can’t get into.”

    “I’ve even talked to restaurateurs, we’ve hosted them on panels and asked them for tips to get in, and they say, ‘I don’t have them,’” he continued.

    If New York Governor Kathy Hochul signs the recent bill into law, websites will need restaurant permission to offer bookings. Aimed at curbing bots used by scalpers, the law targets practices blamed for making reservations at popular restaurants harder to get, favoring wealthier diners.

    Platforms like Resy, Sevenrooms, and OpenTable, which partner directly with restaurants, won’t be affected. However, services like Appointment Trader and Cita might no longer advertise the city’s top tables. Appointment Trader Founder Jonas Frey argues that his platform’s success is due to the existing scarcity of reservations, not the cause of it.

    Frey said: “There were just too many diners for too few restaurants. I believe we’re serving a need. That’s why it worked.”

    “We’re certainly not going to stop operating because we can’t operate in New York,” he added. 

    Sevenrooms data shows NYC restaurant cancellations rose to 19% last month from 17.5% last year, while the national rate fell to 11.6%. Appointment Trader’s Jonas Frey argues his service addresses reservation scarcity, not causes it, and plans to shift focus if the law impacts operations.

    Amy Zhou of Gracious Hospitality supports the bill, citing significant revenue loss due to bot-driven cancellations at popular venues like Cote Korean Steakhouse.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/19/2024 – 16:05

  • Modi's Nod To Closer Ties With Taiwan Suggests India's Evolving 'Act East Policy'
    Modi’s Nod To Closer Ties With Taiwan Suggests India’s Evolving ‘Act East Policy’

    Authored by Venus Upadhayaya via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    After being sworn in as India’s prime minister for a third consecutive term, Narendra Modi received congratulatory messages from a diverse array of world leaders around the globe.

    Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi gives a victory symbol at the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) headquarters in New Delhi on June 4, 2024. (Adnan Abidi/Reuters)

    However, one leader who stood out was Taiwan’s newly elected president, Lai Ching-te. In response to his message, Mr. Modi not only thanked Mr. Lai but reciprocated with a message highlighting the strengthening ties between China’s two frontline adversaries.

    Geopolitical analysts told The Epoch Times that the exchange of messages between the two leaders shows that India’s Act East policy—an initiative to promote economic, strategic, and cultural relations within the Asia-Pacific region—is shaping up and now encompasses Taiwan. The cordial exchange also highlights strategic concerns shared by the two countries, and their mutual dependence for economic growth.

    “India’s Act East policy is taking shape, while its definition and scope of ‘Indo-Pacific’ is broadening. New Delhi used to be focused on East Africa and up to the Malacca Strait. However, over the last few years, it has engaged in port calls in [the] Philippines, PNG [Papua New Guinea] and actively pursued relations with Taiwan, thus expanding from Malacca Strait to the Taiwan Strait,” Akhil Ramesh, a geo-political analyst who leads the India program at the Honolulu-based Pacific Forum, said.

    Taiwan is currently recognized as a sovereign nation by only 12 nations. While India hasn’t officially recognized Taiwan, diplomatic relations between the two countries have been on the rise, particularly since 2020’s bloody Galwan conflict caused Indo–China relations to plunge. Taiwan’s exports to India increased by 13 percent last year, and as of February 2024, Taiwanese businesses have made investments in India.

    Ming-Shih Shen, director of national security research at Taipei’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, told The Epoch Times in an email that the interaction between Mr. Lai and Mr. Modi on social media platform X is based on what they want from each other.

    “Taiwan President Lai Ching-te needs the attention and support of the international community and hopes to cooperate with regional powers to deter China, because India can threaten China from the west, and Taiwan and India have a common geopolitical interest, so there is more space for cooperation,” Mr. Shen said.

    Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te delivers his inaugural speech after being sworn into office at the Presidential Office Building in Taipei, on May 20, 2024. (Sam Yeh/AFP via Getty Images)

    Modi’s and Lai’s Interaction

    The interaction between Mr. Modi and Mr. Lai occurred immediately after the election results were declared on June 4 and before Mr. Modi was formally sworn in on June 9.

    “My sincere congratulations to Prime Minister @narendramodi on his election victory,” Mr. Lai said in a message on X on June 5. “We look forward to enhancing the fast-growing #Taiwan-#India partnership, expanding our collaboration on trade, technology & other sectors to contribute to peace & prosperity in the #IndoPacific.”

    In response, Mr. Modi thanked Mr. Lai for his “warm message” and said he looks forward to “closer ties” as India and Taiwan “work towards mutually beneficial economic and technological partnership.”

    The exchange between the two newly elected leaders garnered considerable attention online. Mr. Lai’s message has 2.5 million views to date, while Mr. Modi’s response has 2.7 million views. However, the exchange didn’t go over well in China.

    At a regular news conference on June 6, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning not only protested the interaction between Mr. Modi and Mr. Lai, but denied the existence of a Taiwanese president.

    “First of all, there is no such thing as ‘president’ of the Taiwan region,” Ms. Mao said in response to a question by a Bloomberg reporter. “As for your question, China opposes all forms of official interactions between the Taiwan authorities and countries having diplomatic relations with China. There is but one China in the world. Taiwan is an inalienable part of the territory of the People’s Republic of China.”

    Ms. Mao told reporters that China had already lodged a protest with India about Mr. Modi’s response to Mr. Lai.

    “The one-China principle is a universally recognized norm in international relations and a prevailing consensus in the international community,” she said. “India has made serious political commitments on this and is supposed to recognize, be alarmed about, and resist the Taiwan authorities’ political calculations. China has protested to India about this.”

    Indian Border Security Force troops patrol as an Indian army convoy passes through on a highway leading toward Leh, which borders China, in Gagangir, India, on June 19, 2020. (Yawar Nazir/Getty Images)

    Toward a Shared Global Footprint

    Experts say that a shared Chinese threat has actually drawn Taiwan and India together. The two countries have shared interests, and Mr. Modi’s response to Mr. Lai gives a clear message that their relationship is governed by that. The Indian prime minister’s response also denotes India’s wish to graduate from a regional role to a larger role in the world.

    “India is reaching higher and wants to play a larger role in global affairs. So far, it has limited itself to [being] a regional player dealing with a string of pearls and other challenges China poses,” said Mr. Ramesh. “By stretching itself far and wide, to Taiwan in the East and East Africa in the West, or the more recent IMEC [India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor], India wants to expand its global footprint.”

    By expanding that footprint, India is aiming at “global leadership, power through increased trade and commercial activity,” he said.

    Mr. Shen said that India doesn’t necessarily need Taiwan to compete with China. However, Taiwan’s chip and semiconductor technology has become a new cooperation sector between the two countries, one that can help India to promote high tech and enhance its economy.

    “Especially after Taiwan has begun to invest in India, in the future, if it wants to improve India’s semiconductor technology or artificial intelligence development, Taiwan is an indispensable partner,” he said.

    During his second tenure, Mr. Modi’s government began the country’s ambitious semiconductor mission with an outlay of $10 billion in 2021. It advanced toward the goal with the Indian cabinet’s approval early this year of three new plants, which are estimated to generate 20,000 advanced technology jobs and about 60,000 indirect jobs.

    Perhaps the most strategically important of these is a semiconductor fabrication plant worth $11 billion by India’s Tata Group, in collaboration with Taiwan’s Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. The facility will be located in Dholera, Gujarat, in western India.

    According to the Taipei Economic and Cultural Center, which represents Taiwan diplomatically in India, the investments in India until February of this year were primarily in electronics, information and communication technology, petrochemicals, steel, shipping, footwear manufacturing, automotive and motorcycle components, finance, and construction industries.

    Mr. Shen predicted that Taiwan–India relations will continue to deepen and strengthen.

    “In addition to open economic, trade and scientific and technological exchanges, maybe more in security and defense industry cooperation will begin as the relationship between the two countries gradually deepens. India needs [to] strengthen its defense and aviation industry capabilities, and Taiwan needs the defense industry cooperation market,” he said.

    An outdoor screen shows news coverage of China’s military drills around Taiwan, in Beijing on May 23, 2024. China began on May 23 what it called “Joint Sword-2024A” exercises, surrounding Taiwan with warplanes and navy ships and vowing “stern punishment” of separatist forces on the island. (Jade Gao/AFP via Getty Images)

    The Taiwanese analyst doesn’t believe that India will establish formal relations with Taiwan because it doesn’t want conflict with China. However, if it wants to strengthen its economy and develop enhanced comprehension of China’s military intelligence, it must look to Taiwan.

    Mr. Shen said the main reason for China’s anger at the interaction between Mr. Modi and Mr. Lai is fear.

    “China is afraid that the relationship between Taiwan and India will deepen, so that the Sino–Indian border sovereignty issue and the conflict in the Taiwan Strait will be merged, and China’s enemies may form alliances and cooperation.”

    That situation will be a “nightmare” for communist party leader Xi Jinping, Mr. Shen said.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/19/2024 – 15:30

  • White House Fuming, Cancels Meeting With Israelis, After Netanyahu's Public Scolding
    White House Fuming, Cancels Meeting With Israelis, After Netanyahu’s Public Scolding

    On Monday Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu chastised the White House in a rare video message, calling President Biden’s withholding of some defense aid to Israel “inconceivable”. 

    However the White House has hit back, with press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre soon after the provocative statement issuing a rejection of the Israeli leader’s narrative. “We genuinely do not know what he’s talking about. We just don’t,“ she told reporters.

    She noted in a Monday afternoon briefing that “there was one particular shipment of munitions that was paused, and you’ve heard us talk about that many times.” Jean-Pierre then emphasized, “There are no other pauses — none — no other pauses or holds in place.”

    Via ABC News

    But here’s what the Israeli prime minister had charged in the video: “It’s inconceivable that in the past few months, the administration has been withholding weapons and ammunitions to Israel. Israel, America’s closest ally, fighting for its life, fighting against Iran and our other common enemies,” he had said.

    Behind the scenes, this has reportedly left Biden admin officials fuming. The White House has as a result taken the rare step of canceling a high-level US-Israel meeting in protest. The scheduled meeting was to focus on Iran.

    A senior US official told Axios on Tuesday, “This decision makes it clear that there are consequences for pulling such stunts.” The official further described, “The Americans are fuming. Bibi’s video made a lot of damage.”

    The same report said that some of the Israeli officials were already en route to Washington when the meeting was canceled, however, other sources said the meeting was merely postponed and tried to downplay that it was a punitive action.

    The US gives Israel over $3 billion in foreign aid every year, and has also pledged billions more in weapons, including advanced fighter jets, throughout the course of the Gaza war. “Biden’s team was angry and shocked by Netanyahu’s ingratitude,” another US official was quoted in Axios as saying.

    Secretary of State Antony Blinken has meanwhile confirmed that Washington is “continuing to review one shipment… with regard to 2,000-pound bombs because of our concerns about their use in a densely populated area like Rafah.”

    Netanyahu is fully aware that his words could also play heavily in the November US presidential election…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The White House has for months maintained contradictory policies on Gaza – on the one hand decrying the soaring civilian death toll which are especially the result of large-scale airstrikes, and on the other supplying Israel’s military with the very bombs used to inflict such atrocities. 

    Progressives and Democrats are increasingly pulling their support from Biden over the issue, and this week’s fresh spat with Netanyahu could be Biden’s attempt to show his base he won’t be bossed around by a foreign ally. The White House has continually said the Israelis shouldn’t cross ‘red lines’ – but Biden has been hesitant to actually impose consequences when said lines are violated – for example in the Rafah ground offensive, which the US has stood against from the start.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/19/2024 – 14:55

  • MSNBC Contributor Posts Image Claiming Trump Needed To Be Helped Off Stage
    MSNBC Contributor Posts Image Claiming Trump Needed To Be Helped Off Stage

    Authored by Steve Watson via modernity.news,

    A leftist MSNBC contributor has been raked over the coals for claiming Donald Trump is really the presidential candidate who needs to be helped off a stage, rather than than Joe Biden.

    Brian Tyler Cohen, who ironically hosts a podcast called ‘No Lie’, posted the following image dating from last year on X: (‘No Lie’ Cohen has since deleted his lie)…

    As you can see, the post was quickly flagged by Community Notes.

    Video from the same event clearly shows Trump shaking the hand of his son Don Jr. which is what the photo captured.

    Even other leftists had to admit Tyler Cohen’s post was just misleading.

    He probably already knew this, and was either trying to amass post views, or he just didn’t care.

    This comes in the wake of days of videos being shared of Joe Biden doddering around like a dementia patient or freezing up, having to be rounded up and led away by both the Italian Prime Minister at the G7 summit and by Obama at a Hollywood fundraiser.

    The White House had the gall to claim that the videos were edited or completely fake.

    In reality, it’s the Biden campaign that is editing and spreading misleading videos of Trump:

    Other leftists have tried to claim that Trump is the one who is cognitively impaired because he mixed up the name ‘Jackson’ with ‘Johnson’.

    It’s hardly in the same league as Biden’s clear decline to the point where he can barely function.

    Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/19/2024 – 14:20

  • Dell, SMC, Nvidia To Build Elon Musk's Grok Supercomputer In Memphis
    Dell, SMC, Nvidia To Build Elon Musk’s Grok Supercomputer In Memphis

    xAI’s multi-billion dollar “Gigafactory of Compute” is being constructed in Memphis, Tennessee, and is set to become the world’s largest supercomputer.

    The artificial intelligence company founded by Elon Musk could be months away from powering chatbot Grok, which is already operational on the X platform.

    A source recently told The Daily Memphian that the supercomputer could start running in 8 to 12 months.

    The supercomputer is intended to power and do computations for Grok, the chatbot run by xAI’s artificial intelligence. The Information, a business publication, reported on May 26 that the supercomputer would be ready by August 2025.

    But a source familiar with the matter told The Daily Memphian that the supercomputer could start running eight to 12 months earlier than expected, making an August 2024 start possible.

    On Wednesday morning, Dell Founder & CEO Michael Dell posted a picture of Dell racks slated for the Grok.

    “We’re building a Dell AI factory with @nvidia to power @grok for @xai @elonmusk,” Dell wrote in a post. 

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    X user DogeDesigner also reported that Dell is supplying xAI with supercomputer equipment. Musk chimed in on X that Dell “is assembling half of the racks that are going into the supercomputer that xAI is building.” 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    X users had many questions, including “Who’s assembling the other half?” and “Liquid-cooled?” 

    Musk then responded to X user Mario Nawfal, saying “SMC,” or Super Micro Computer, will supply the other half. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    As for Musk…

    Perhaps this news will lift Dell and SMC higher on Thursday (today’s a holiday). On Tuesday, Nvidia was crowned the world’s most valuable company.

    Year-to-date gains… 

    “It seems like Elon Musk is assembling an avengers-like team of tech giants and turning them into a formidable force in the AI, with Grok as their secret weapon,” one X user said. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    A secret weapon against the woke censorship mob? 

    GPU power is the new arms race.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/19/2024 – 13:45

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Jun 19

Today’s News 19th June 2024

  • How (And Why) Bird Flu Is About To Enter The "Mass Testing" Phase
    How (And Why) Bird Flu Is About To Enter The “Mass Testing” Phase

    Authored by Kit Knightly via Off-Guardian,org,

    Hello everyone and welcome to the latest edition of Bird Flu Digest, formerly known as OffGuardian…

    The wall-to-wall coverage of Bird Flu is getting wallier-to-wallier with each passing week, to the point it’s almost hard to keep up with the waves of hot takes and chilling insights. But if you’re going to try, the best place to do it is right here, where I spend a good portion of my time reading very similar articles in very similar papers all about the danger of a pandemic they’re about to pretend is happening.

    Not a dream of mine growing up, but life’s like that.

    Anyway…bird flu.

    In our last bird flu update, we pointed out that the “bird flu death” in Mexico was very likely no such thing, and that reporting it as such was right out of the Covid playbook.

    Since then the head of Mexico’s Health Ministry has criticized the WHO for calling it a bird flu death at all.

    But the big bird flu news is that former head of the US CDC Robert Redfield has gone hysterical, telling NewsNation:

    I really do think it’s very likely that we will, at some time, it’s not a question of if, it’s more of a question of when we will have a bird flu pandemic.”

    This story was naturally picked up and spread everywhere, but Redfield is hardly alone in this hysterical panic-fueling nonsense.

    Last week, The Conversation headlined:

    An ounce of prevention: Now is the time to take action on H5N1 avian flu, because the stakes are enormous

    USA Today echoes the tone:

    Concerns grow as ‘gigantic’ bird flu outbreak runs rampant in US dairy herds

    Apparently a new study has found something scary – Americans “have little to no pre-existing immunity to the H5N1 avian flu”. Frightening stuff.

    Just a few hours ago the Daily Mail reported on yet another doctor doling out yet another dire warning. This time Dr Rick Bright, who told PBS that:

    We’re being blindfolded in this battle right now, and I’m really concerned that the virus is winning the game and getting ahead of us.’

    We’re flying blind and the disease is getting ahead of us! It’s running rampant and the stakes are enormous!

    Even some channels that supposedly know better are spreading the fear.

    CNN is frantic with worry – “We aren’t doing enough about the risk of bird flu – but we can”. Popular Science is relatively calm, asking “Can we prevent a bird flu pandemic in humans?”, before reassuring us that we can…as long as we all do as we’re told.

    All of these stories talk about “gathering data”, “flying blind”, and the need for “prevention”. And all of that is really code for “testing”. Almost every article talks up the need to increase testing – both of humans and animals.

    But anyone who’s been paying attention since 2020 knows PCR tests don’t gather data, they create data. They are machines for generating “cases”. Far from preventing a pandemic, they can be used to manufacture one.

    There are even early signs of mandating tests going forward, such as this Politico article bemoaning the lack of farmers voluntarily signing up for government surveillance programs:

    The federal response is largely focusing on voluntary efforts by farmers to help track and contain the outbreak. But many farms still have not signed up for USDA efforts to boost surveillance and testing for the virus.

    And the solution to this is more money:

    Although federal funds have been allocated, no farms have enrolled in voluntary on-site milk testing, according to the USDA. Fewer than a dozen farms have applied for separate financial aid in exchange for boosting biosecurity measures to help contain the virus.

    Paying farmers to test their animals is another recycled Covid strategy. It will generate cases, which will generate culling, which links us up with the other aspect of “bird flu” – not “the next pandemic” but “the war on food”.

    As the alleged disease allegedly spreads from poultry farm to dairy farm more and more chickens are being culled and cows slaughtered. This is going to escalate even further soon, when governments start paying farmers to destroy their cattle.

    Again, from Politico:

    …federal rulemaking is delaying the rollout of compensation for farmers who have lost or had to kill cows because of the disease.

    Translation:

    They want to pay farmers to test their cows, then “financially compensate” them when they have to be destroyed.

    This is just like the UK’s “Environmental Land Management” schemes or the US “Conservation Reserve Program”, both of which pay farmers not to farm. The goal will be to make it more profitable for farmers to kill their cows than milk them.

    Incentivizing testing, rewarding positive results. That’s how you make a pandemic out of nothing, and sabotage the food system in the process.

    But there’s good news, after all the the EU is already procuring 40 million doses of vaccines, just in case. And the Moderna stock price keeps going up too. So there’s that.

    Honestly, it’s like watching a movie where they signpost the “surprise” twist ending inside the first five minutes, and then you have to sit through two interminable hours of what the writers clearly consider to be subtle foreshadowing.

    It’s getting to the point I just want them to do the bloody pandemic and get it over with.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/18/2024 – 23:30

  • Israel's Top Generals Approve Battle Plans For Lebanon Offensive
    Israel’s Top Generals Approve Battle Plans For Lebanon Offensive

    The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) on Tuesday announced that plans to launch an offensive in Lebanon against Hezbollah have been formally approved. 

    The IDF statement further said it is preparing to “accelerate readiness in the field” at a moment the situation is deteriorating, given the Lebanese paramilitary group backed by Iran has in the last days sent hundreds of drones and missiles into northern Israel. The statement spelled out that “operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon were approved.”

    The IDF released this photograph in making the announcement.

    The military cited that the head of the IDF’s Northern Command Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin and chief of the Operations Directorate Maj. Gen. Oded Basiuk had given their final approval for the Lebanon battle plans.

    However, whether the trigger is pulled on launching the major operation remains to be seen, as outside diplomatic efforts to intervene also intensify.

    During an afternoon briefing Pentagon spokesman Major General Patrick Ryder was asked by reporters about the newly approved Israeli battle plans. He responded: “I’m not going to get into hypotheticals and speculate on what might happen other than to say no one wants to see a wider regional war.”

    Hezbollah has been strongly signaling it could attack Israel’s third largest city of Haifa, which would mark a severe escalation, after Israel has launched airstrikes as deep into Lebanon as far north as Baalbek, as well as near the Syrian border in the northeast.

    President Biden’s envoy Amos Hochstein has been in both Israel and Lebanon seeking to convince officials on both sides against escalation; however, the US doesn’t have direct contact with Hezbollah but instead tends to go through Lebanese government intermediaries. The White House has warned that an expanded Israeli offensive in Lebanon would be disastrous for both Israel and the whole region, given the war could widen to include Iran.

    Israeli officials have said the IDF stands ready to “destroy” Hezbollah, and on Sunday IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said “Hezbollah’s increasing aggression is bringing us to the brink of what could be a wider escalation, one that could have devastating consequences for Lebanon and the entire region.”

    Earlier this month Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, “Whoever thinks he can hurt us and we will respond by sitting on our hands is making a big mistake.” He had added at a time when massive fires were spreading in the north due to constant Hezbollah drone and missile attacks, “We are prepared for very intense action in the north.” There are currently some 100,000 Israeli residents who remain outside their homes and communities due to the persistent threat of rocket attack.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/18/2024 – 23:05

  • Ethereum Spikes After SEC Drops Investigation
    Ethereum Spikes After SEC Drops Investigation

    The Securities and Exchange Commission is dropping its investigation into whether Ether is a security, Ethereum developer Consensys said Wednesday.

    “The Enforcement Division of the SEC has notified us that it is closing its investigation into Ethereum 2.0,” the firm said in a June 19 X post.

    “This means that the SEC will not bring charges alleging that sales of ETH are securities transactions,” which it hailed as a “major win for Ethereum developers, technology providers, and industry participants.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The news sent Ethereum sharply higher, after several days of unexplained declines driven by an overly aggressive futures seller.

    In March, Fortune reported the SEC issued subpoenas to multiple companies which was related to attempts to label ETH as a security.

    Consensys sued the SEC in April, alleging the regulator planned “to seize control over the future of cryptocurrency,” which it said was still on in its latest post.

     

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/18/2024 – 22:40

  • Loper Bright Enterprises V. Raimondo: The Supreme Court Battle Against The Administrative State
    Loper Bright Enterprises V. Raimondo: The Supreme Court Battle Against The Administrative State

    Via SchiffGold.com,

    The Supreme Court is currently reviewing a case that could impact your individual liberty. And you probably haven’t heard about it…

    The case began in November 2022, when Loper Bright Enterprises, a fishery based out of Cape May, New Jersey, appealed a district court opinion to the Supreme Court. The conflict between Loper Bright and the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) started after the agency decided to require private fisheries like Loper Bright to pay their regulatory inspectors for their time observing fishery practices.

    While the law doesn’t explicitly allow this practice, the Fishery Service cites the Chevron Deference, a precedent set by a 1984 Supreme Court case, which states that an ambiguous law can be interpreted by government agencies as they see fit. In short, the Fishery Service wants private companies to pay their salaries and found a legal loophole to justify it.

    While this may seem like an isolated incident, it is just one example of a long history of government agencies infringing on individual liberty. The outcome of this case holds supreme importance for the future of our republic and the preservation of our financial and civil freedoms.

    The Administrative State: A Tyranny of the Unelected

    Since 1950, the federal government has steadily grown in size. Today, it has over 2.9 million civilian employees, more than Walmart has worldwide. This growth has paved the way for the creation of a governmental pseudo-branch denoted the “administrative state.” The administrative state contains government employees who have a significant impact on people’s everyday lives but yet aren’t held accountable to citizens in the form of elections. These unelected bureaucrats undermine the central ethos of a republic, where elected officials are supposed to seek the good of their constituents or risk not being re-elected.

    The problem with this system was made evident during the pandemic. During the COVID shutdown, hundreds of millions of Americans were sentenced to lockdowns, impacting their schools, churches, and families. Many of the people behind this policy were members of the CDC, one of the government agencies that comprise the administrative state. The decisions they made were not subject to the traditional checks and balances which typically constrain the US government. Instead, America found itself under a tyranny of the unelected.

    This overreach extends beyond individual liberty into private business. When businesses can be encroached upon at a whim by unelected authorities, long-term investment becomes a much riskier endeavor. When the COVID shutdown occurred, many small businesses, with their small profit margins and high overhead, were unable to weather the storm. For the companies that survived, the blatant government intervention and the severe consequences that followed left a sour taste in their mouth for future capital investments. You’re not going to build a new business if a bureaucrat can shut it down the next day. All of these factors contribute to government agencies having a negative impact on financial markets and investor portfolios.

    The Central Problem With Chevron

    The Chevron Deference precedent, which is at the center of Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo, gives even more power to these governmental agencies. When ambiguity exists, this precedent allows courts to simply defer to agencies’ interpretations, even if those interpretations favor the agencies’ own interests. It also allows courts to seek out ambiguity in order to give near-unbridled power to these agencies.

    If the Supreme Court upholds Chevron, it will further entrench the power of unelected bureaucrats and make it increasingly difficult for individuals and businesses to challenge agency overreach. However, if the Court rules against Chevron, it would represent a shift toward increased restraint of the administrative state, leading to a reevaluation of the scope and authority of federal agencies.

    Either way, Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo is set to have a heavy impact on the future of the administrative state and the balance of power between the government and the people.

    American Freedom is on Trial

    Loper v. Raimondo is more than just a legal dispute, it is a battle for freedom against the encroachment of the administrative state.

    Proponents of Chevron argue that the statute has promoted national stability by reducing potential conflict between administrative bodies and private entities.

    However, during the time Chevron has been in place, the administrative state has done everything but promote stability. Agencies have steadily increased their power, as evidenced by the COVID-19 case study, resulting in many counterproductive governmental actions.

    The second, and most poignant argument for Chevron is that individual agencies have more expertise in their respective fields. Therefore, since they possess intellectual authority, they are justified in having political authority over the American populace. This dispute is, at its core, a battle for individual freedom.

    One of the central claims of socialism is that centralized planners, who are more educated and knowledgeable than the average citizen, can orchestrate the nation and economy better than individual Americans making decisions. But this understanding is rooted in arrogance, not substance. Countries with more economic freedom have a higher life expectancy, GDP per capita, education rate, and overall quality of life. The “chaos” of free choice actually leads to productive outcomes. The Supreme Court should side with Loper Bright by overruling Chevron, giving citizens more of the vital freedom which is a necessary factor for national and individual success.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/18/2024 – 21:55

  • Sullivan Greenlights Ukraine Cross-Border Attacks Beyond Kharkiv Region With US Arms
    Sullivan Greenlights Ukraine Cross-Border Attacks Beyond Kharkiv Region With US Arms

    US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has said that authorization for Ukrainian use of American weapons for cross-border attacks extends not just to the Kharkiv region, but into other Russian regions as well, further escalating Biden’s initial greenlight for such offensive operations.

    Blinken in a Monday PBS interview told NewsHour’s Nick Schifrin “This is not about geography, it’s about common sense” and expanded the parameters for using NATO-supplied missiles. Watch the exchange below:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The following is what was said in this opening section of the interview:

    Schifrin: Does the agreement that you have made with Ukraine to allow Ukraine to fire American weapons just over the border into Russia at Russian forces that are about to attack into Ukraine, does that extend beyond the Kharkiv region, including into the Sumy region, where Russian forces have also been targeting Ukraine?

    Sullivan: It extends to anywhere that Russian forces are coming across the border from the Russian side to the Ukrainian side to try to take additional Ukrainian territory.

    Schifrin: So, that could include the Sumy region?

    Sullivan: That’s happened in Kharkiv.

    We have seen initial indications that Russia has made exploratory moves across in Sumy. And so it would apply there as well. This is not about geography. It’s about common sense. If Russia is attacking or about to attack from its territory into Ukraine, it only makes sense to allow Ukraine to hit back against the forces that are hitting it from across the border.

    That’s when the interviewer pointed out the obvious–that this policy will lead to open-ended and uncontrollable escalation given it takes away all parameters. “Of course, Russia is attacking Ukraine from all parts of Russia. Why draw the line there?” Schifrin asked.

    Sullivan at this point essentially gave Kiev the greenlight to attack a much more expanded area inside Russia. “Well, first, we are permitting Ukrainian forces to attack Russian forces using Russia as a sanctuary in the areas where on the battlefield they are attacking from inside Russia with artillery, with other ground-based munitions,” Biden’s top security official said.

    And what’s more is that when asked about F-16s, Sullivan affirmed that Ukraine can use the US-made jets to attack Russia. Sullivan explained:

    “…we have made clear — and we have seen over the course of the past two years Ukraine do this — that they can use air defense systems, including those supplied by the United States, to take Russian planes out of the sky, even if those Russian planes are in Russian airspace, if they’re about to fire into Ukrainian airspace.”

    Situation in Ukraine as of late May. Source: liveuamap.

    President Putin in late March had addressed this possibility. He said that Russian forces would then have to right to attack any airbase from which these F-16s are flown, including if they take off from within Western countries or NATO bases.

    Commenting on the fresh and escalatory Sullivan remarks, independent journalist Michael Tracey said to “Expect the parameters of this bold new policy to continue to grow.”

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/18/2024 – 21:30

  • Watch: Mother Of Fallen Cop Slams City Officials For Not Flying 'Thin Blue Line' Flag, Using Pride Flag Instead
    Watch: Mother Of Fallen Cop Slams City Officials For Not Flying ‘Thin Blue Line’ Flag, Using Pride Flag Instead

    Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

    Residents of Wethersfield Connecticut gathered Monday at a town hall to confront the mayor and other council officials over a decision to refuse a request to fly a ‘thin blue line’ flag in honour of a fallen police officer.

    As we highlighted, council officials claimed the pro police flag was ‘racist and antagonistic’, and decided that lowering a LGBTQ flag to half staff was enough of an honour for Aaron Pelletier, who was killed in the line of duty.

    Critics charged that the move epitomises the utter state of towns and cities under Democrat control.

    Speaking at the meeting, Deputy Mayor Matthew Forrest claimed “Our Wethersfield Town Council and the entire community stands with the police.”

    Others disagreed, including Debbie Garten, the mother of Deputy Robert “Bobby” Garten, who was also killed in the line of duty in September 2023.

    Mrs Garten urged that “It was disheartening to witness the news coverage and hear the disrespectful and hurtful remarks being made by some town council members, especially as the wake and funeral for Trooper First Class Pelletier was going on.”

    She added, “The thin blue line holds a deeply personal meaning for me, as a tribute to my son’s service and sacrifice,” before calling for the flag to be flown for two whole weeks next May to mark National Police Week and the Connecticut police memorial ceremony.

    Will Garten, the brother of Deputy Garten called the mayor “disgusting,” and noted that the official hasn’t even mentioned his name at all.

    Some of the town officials have complained that since the incident with the Pride flag and the refusal to fly the thin blue line, they have received “vulgar” messages and even death threats.

    “A large number of these communications can easily be described as disturbing and vulgar,” town manager Fred Presley claimed.

    “Some have wished physical harm and even death to council members and staff. A handful have reached the level of directly threatening individual council members and their families,” Presley added.

    *  *  *

    Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/18/2024 – 21:05

  • Your Lyin' Eyes: Corporate Media Panics With 'Fact Checks' Over Biden's Obvious Decline
    Your Lyin’ Eyes: Corporate Media Panics With ‘Fact Checks’ Over Biden’s Obvious Decline

    After several videos plainly showing Joe Biden’s obvious cognitive decline went viral over the last week, the left is now pulling the ‘out of context’ thing, suggesting that they’re edited “cheap fakes” that are “done in bad faith,” and both NBC News and AP running ‘fact checks.’

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    Now, the media is doing ‘fact checks’ to debunk your lyin’ eyes! Check out NBC’s (9 million follower, 25k view in 12 hours, highly ratio’d post with hilarious replies) take:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    They’re now calling authentic footage “cheap fakes,” which as we noted yesterday, appears to be coordinated messaging with the White House.

    While “deepfakes” are misleading audio, video or images that are created or edited with artificial intelligence technology, a “cheap fake,” according to researchers Britt Paris and Joan Donovan, is a “manipulation created with cheaper, more accessible software (or, none at all). Cheap fakes can be rendered through Photoshop, lookalikes, re-contextualizing footage, speeding, or slowing.”

    To recap:

    • Biden ‘wandered off’ during a G7 flag ceremony while he was supposed to be taking a photo with other world leaders before Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni shepherded him back to the group. According to the fact checkers, he was ‘paying respects to a paratrooper.’

    According to the fact check, “Biden was greeting a parachutist who had just landed as part of the ceremony.”

    Yes, requiring Meloni to physically bring him back to the group.

    • He then did some weird nursing home mind-meld with the Pope, possibly (definitely) sniffing him. Unsurprisingly, no debunk! Apparently even NBC News couldn’t defend this.

    • Then, the Hollywood Reporter‘s Chris Gardner showed a clip of Biden ‘freezing’ on stage last weekend, and having to be similarly guided off stage by former President Barack Obama.

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     According to a new ‘fact check’ from AP, citing Jimmy Kimmel’s spokesman and an anonymous source, Biden was simply “pausing” amid cheers.

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    And wait, is this a cheap fake?

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    Nobody’s buying it…

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    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/18/2024 – 20:44

  • Not A Single American Has Received Biden's High-Speed Internet Despite $42.5 Billion Funding In 2021: FCC Commissioner
    Not A Single American Has Received Biden’s High-Speed Internet Despite $42.5 Billion Funding In 2021: FCC Commissioner

    FCC Commissioner Brendan Carr slammed the Biden administration on Friday – writing on X that President Joe Biden has yet to connect a single American with high-speed internet.

    “In 2021, the Biden Administration got $42.45 billion from Congress to deploy high-speed Internet to millions of Americans. Years later, it has not connected even 1 person with those funds. In fact, it now says that no construction projects will even start until 2025 at earliest,” Carr wrote.

    “Meanwhile, the Biden Admin has been layering a partisan political agenda on top of this $42.45B program – a liberal wish list that has nothing to do with connecting Americans. Climate change mandates, tech biases, DEI requirements, favoring government-run networks + more.”

    As Breitbart notes further;

    Carr is specifically slamming the Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment (BEAD) program, which allocated $42.45 billion to support broadband infrastructure and adoption.

    The program was established by the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), otherwise known as the so-called bipartisan infrastructure bill. The bill had no conservative victories and had many leftist carveouts, as Breitbart News detailed.

    Congress passed the infrastructure bill in 2021, which would mean that the BEAD program has had little success in its two years since Biden passed the bill.

    Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg also struggled to explain why Biden has only built “seven or eight” electric vehicle charging stations, which the funding also came from the IIJA.

    “The timeline is bad. The policy cuts that the Biden Administration have made are even worse. The Biden Administration has set up a $42.45 billion program that is poised to miss the mark and leave rural communities behind,” Carr said in a statement to Breitbart News.

    Carr continued, saying that the BEAD program fails to close the “digital divide,” or the gap between with those with high-speed internet and those without.

    “The Biden Administration is barreling towards a broadband blunder. Congress has appropriated enough money to end the digital divide, but the Biden Administration is squandering the moment by putting partisan political goals above smart policy,” Carr explained further. “It is doing so through rate regulation, through union, technology, and DEI preferences, and through a thumb on the scale for government run networks. All of this threatens to leave rural communities behind.”

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    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/18/2024 – 20:40

  • Kansas Sues Pfizer, Says Company 'Misled' Public On COVID-19 Vaccine
    Kansas Sues Pfizer, Says Company ‘Misled’ Public On COVID-19 Vaccine

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Kansas on June 17 sued Pfizer, alleging the pharmaceutical giant “misled” members of the public with various claims about its COVID-19 vaccine.

    US pharmaceutical giant Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla attends a press conference on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting in Davos on May 25, 2022. – Pfizer said it would sell its patented drugs at a not-for-profit basis to the world’s poorest countries, as part of a new initiative announced at the World Economic Forum in Davos. (Photo by Fabrice COFFRINI / AFP) (Photo by FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP via Getty Images)

    Pfizer, for instance, said on April 1, 2021, that there were “no serious safety concerns through up to six months following second dose” of the vaccine it makes with Germany’s BioNTech, the lawsuit notes.

    But documents made public through a lawsuit showed that Pfizer’s adverse events database, which includes reported issues following vaccination from around the world, already contained 158,893 adverse events as of Feb. 28, 2021.

    “Pfizer’s representations that its COVID-19 vaccine did not have any safety concerns was inconsistent with the adverse events data it possessed,” the suit, filed by Kansas Attorney General Kris Kobach states. “Pfizer concealed, suppressed, or omitted material facts it possessed showing significant safety concerns associated with Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine.”

    The suit also highlights how Pfizer in the same press release said that vaccinated trial participants enjoyed 91.3 percent protection against COVID-19 up to six months after a second dose.

    Documents released later, though, showed that Pfizer recorded 83.7 percent effectiveness among trial participants at four months after a second dose, while finding indications in blood samples that effectiveness was waning even more at six months.

    Pfizer disclosed the waning effectiveness on July 28, 2021, in a preprint paper.

    Its press release that day mentioned positive findings from a different study but omitted mention of the preprint paper or how it had found signs of waning protection.

    “Pfizer’s concealment, suppression, and omission of the waning effectiveness of its COVID-19 vaccine allowed Pfizer to profit from vaccinations of Kansans who may have been deterred from Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine had they known about its waning effectiveness,” the suit states.

    In the second quarter of 2021, Pfizer made nearly $8 billion from its COVID-19 vaccine.

    The suit also notes that Albert Bourla, Pfizer’s CEO, said in early 2023 that “We constantly review and analyze the data“ and ”we’ve seen not a single signal although we have distributed billions of doses.”

    By that time, officials in the United States and elsewhere had said the available evidence showed the vaccine causes myocarditis after first detecting a signal for the heart inflammation in 2021. Pfizer said in a leaked document dated February 11, 2022, that there were “increased cases of myocarditis” reported in the United States after Pfizer’s vaccination, and the label for its vaccine since 2021 carried a warning about the risk of the inflammation.

    Mr. Kobach’s 69-page complaint, filed in district court in Thomas County, alleges Pfizer made false, misleading, and deceptive claims in violation of consent judgments it previously entered into with Kansas and other states to settle separate allegations. In one of the settlements, Pfizer in 2008 paid $60 million over its promotion of two prescription drugs and agreed to, moving forward, carefully present information about its products.

    “Pfizer made multiple misleading statements to deceive the public about its vaccine at a time when Americans needed the truth,” Mr. Kobach said in a statement.

    The Republican wants the court to declare that Pfizer’s claims about its vaccine violate the consent judgments and is seeking damages, including $20,000 for each violation of each of the agreements.

    Pfizer in a statement to news outlets said the case will likely not succeed.

    “We are proud to have developed the COVID-19 vaccine in record time in the midst of a global pandemic and saved countless lives. The representations made by Pfizer about its COVID-19 vaccine have been accurate and science-based. The company believes that the state’s case has no merit and will respond to the suit in due course,” the U.S.-based firm said.

    “Pfizer is deeply committed to the well-being of the patients it serves and has no higher priority than ensuring the safety and effectiveness of its treatments and vaccines.”

    The Pfizer vaccine is the most administered in the United States, with more than 367 million injected across the country since the shot was made available in late 2020.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/18/2024 – 20:15

  • Ozempic Fuels 'Downsize Me' Trend As Slimmed Down Americans Hunt For New Clothes 
    Ozempic Fuels ‘Downsize Me’ Trend As Slimmed Down Americans Hunt For New Clothes 

    If Ozempic and or Mounjaro users can avoid processed foods and get some exercise, they’ll likely maintain their weight loss. The good news is that some of these individuals, who have ditched greasy burgers and donuts, are possibly already on the hunt for smaller clothes. 

    Jennifer Hyman, co-founder and CEO of clothing rental company Rent the Runway, spoke to Wall Street Journal’s Suzanne Kapner about the emerging trend of customers switching to smaller sizes more than at any other time in the past 15 years. 

    Hyman noted that these customers are increasingly open to experimenting with different styles, such as cutouts and other body-baring features. “When you feel more comfortable in your skin, you’re more willing to try edgier looks,” she added.

    At fashion retailer Lafayette 148, the brand’s chief executive, Deirdre Quinn, told WSJ’s Kapner that approximately 5% of its customer base has already begun buying new outfits because of weight loss. 

    Quinn said some customers are replacing their size 12 clothes with size 6 or 8. She said the downsizing trend boosts sales and saves the company money because smaller sizes use less fabric.

    Abhi Madan, co-founder and creative director of dressmaker Amarra, stated, “Over the past year, our retailers have been telling us they need smaller sizes.”

    As of May, 1 in 8 adults in the US had used GLP-1 drugs, equivalent to more than 15 million people. Recently, Novo Nordisk, the maker of Ozempic and Wegovy, said that at least 25,000 people are beginning its weight loss treatment weekly.

    Bank of America analyst Geoff Meacham first wrote about the downsizing theme last fall in a note that revealed the downstream effects of the obesity drug will impact the apparel industry, as “eventual weight loss in the broader population could spur a wardrobe replacement cycle.” 

    Meacham said that an adoption rate of 38 million individuals using weight-loss drugs (midpoint of BofA’s estimated 2030 TAM) combined with the assumption of buying new clothing could result in $50 billion of new apparel spending. 

    Next up, as Bloomberg penned in a recent note, GLP-1 drugs are likely going to target “America’s fat pets.” 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/18/2024 – 19:50

  • Washington's Sharp Rebuke Of Vietnam For Hosting Putin Later This Week Was Ridiculous
    Washington’s Sharp Rebuke Of Vietnam For Hosting Putin Later This Week Was Ridiculous

    Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

    The US Embassy in Hanoi reacted angrily to the news that President Putin will visit Vietnam later this week.

    One of their spokespeople told Reuters that “No country should give Putin a platform to promote his war of aggression and otherwise allow him to normalise his atrocities. If he is able to travel freely, it could normalize Russia’s blatant violations of international law.”

    This sharp rebuke was ridiculous since it’s not the US’ place to tell its partners which foreign leaders they’re allowed to host.

    It’s also hypocritical too since neither the US nor Vietnam are signatories to the Rome Statute that created the “International Criminal Court”, whose ”warrant” for the Russian leader’s arrest last year was what the spokesperson was referencing with regard to their displeasure at him traveling freely. Moreover, while the purpose of his upcoming trip hasn’t been officially confirmed, there’s no doubt that it’ll concern bilateral cooperation and isn’t just an opportunity to discuss his views about Ukraine.

    By disrespecting Vietnam in the way that it did through their embassy spokesperson’s rude statement, the US is needlessly risking drama in their hard-earned strategic partnership, which was clinched just last year after lengthy negotiations.

    These former wartime enemies entered into a fast-moving rapprochement at the end of the Old Cold War and have shared goals of managing China’s rise, which is especially important for Vietnam due to its maritime territorial dispute with the People’s Republic.

    Even so, Vietnam is far from being a US ally or vassal since it proudly retains its strategic autonomy as proven by the continued cultivation of strategic relations with Russia, who it’s loyally supported despite immense Western pressure to dump that country. Most of its armed forces are supplied with Soviet and Russian wares, and its partner’s energy companies are also exploring offshore deposits. Furthermore, Hanoi will never forget Moscow’s support during the Vietnam War, which forged their brotherly ties.

    It’s in this context of Vietnam’s careful balancing act between Russia and the US, which is predicated on obtaining the best possible position vis-à-vis its top trade partner China with whom it’s still embroiled in a fierce maritime territorial dispute, that President Putin will soon pay a visit there. Russia respects Vietnam’s decision to strategically partner with its American rival, but America doesn’t respect Vietnam’s decision to strategically partner with its Russian rival, which isn’t lost on Hanoi.

    Nevertheless, Vietnam will still keep the US close since it considers it to be the only realistic counterweight to China in the latter’s namesake Southern Sea that Hanoi calls its East Sea, all while arming itself to the teeth with Russian weaponry just in case a conflict breaks out by miscalculation. As Sino-Filipino tensions continue worsening, the US will likely try to rope Vietnam into this as well so as to increase the pressure on Beijing, but Hanoi won’t ever act against its interests at others’ demands.

    That’s always been the case but is even more so now after the US’ ridiculous rebuke over its hosting of President Putin, which reminded policymakers and the public alike that America will always regard itself as the “senior partner” in all of its bilateral relations.

    This arrogance isn’t just offensive, but it’s also counterproductive from the perspective of the US’ objective national interests since it reduces the chances that others like Vietnam will more closely cooperate with it against third countries like China.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/18/2024 – 19:25

  • "We're Currently Watching The Collapse" Of The Daily Beast As 70% Of Unionized Staffers 'Gutted'
    “We’re Currently Watching The Collapse” Of The Daily Beast As 70% Of Unionized Staffers ‘Gutted’

    The journalism industry is in a severe downturn, with over 8,000 job cuts reported across the US, UK, and Canada last year alone. The first half of this year has already seen more than 1,000 layoffs from traditional newspapers, online media outlets, and even leftist nonprofit watchdog journalism organizations. The industry is crumbling in an election year as some conservative media outlets thrive. 

    A new report from The Wrap says leftist media outlet The Daily Beast is “gutting its senior editorial team after implementing voluntary buyouts last month, with nearly 70% of unionized staffers leaving the outlet.” 

    According to people with direct knowledge of the situation, some of the senior staffers taking buyouts include reporter Justin Baragona, political investigations reporter Jose Pagliery, senior national reporter Pilar Melendez, senior reporter Emily Shugerman, and many others. About 25 unionized staffers received the buyouts, which equates to about 70% of unionized staffers. 

    The people expect upcoming layoffs later this month to impact non-union editorial staffers.

    “We’re currently watching the collapse of The Beast,” one person told TheWrap, adding, “There is no doubt the site won’t be able to recover from this.”

    “One of the first lessons of any company: Don’t alienate your core customer and piss them off so much they begin to call for a boycott against your firm,” the person continued.

    The source is likely referring to the Daily Beast’s radical leftist reporting and boycotting of President Trump over the years. This type of reporting and commentary on Trump has made some readers highly skeptical of its stories. Remember when the outlet was sued for pumping disinformation about Hunter Biden’s laptop? 

    More recently, website tracking firm Similarweb has shown steep declines in Daily Beast’s website traffic in recent months. 

    Layoffs at the Daily Beast come as Press Gazette estimates total journalism industry job cuts in the UK, US, Ireland, and Canada total at least 1,000 in January, 615 in February, 30 in March, and 77 in April. Last year, at least 8,000 media job cuts were seen across the three countries. 

    Press Gazette listed a timeline of the latest media job cuts:

    The Daily Beast – At least 25 people

    The Daily Beast has implemented voluntary buyouts accepted by 25 unionised staffers, or almost 75% of union members in the newsroom.

    According to The Wrap those taking buyouts include media reporter Justin Baragona, political investigations reporter Jose Pagliery, senior national reporter Pilar Melendez and senior reporter Emily Shugerman. The outlet reported that senior staffers are heavily represented in the departures.

    A further round of layoffs for non-unionised journalists is expected to follow.

    A Daily Beast spokesperson said: “With such a generous severance offer, we anticipated a large number of employees would take the voluntary buyout. We are not at all surprised.

    “These numbers allow us to move forward with our plan to secure the financial future of the Beast and rebuild a newsroom that will thrive in the current landscape. It’s always difficult when dedicated employees choose to step away. We thank them and wish them the best in their future endeavors.”

    Evening Standard – 150 jobs

    About 150 jobs are expected to be cut as a result of the Evening Standard’s planned closure of its daily newspaper edition and relaunch as a weekly title. A date for the changes and end to the daily paper has not yet been set.

    The proposed redundancies reportedly include 70 editorial roles. The Standard newsroom is currently made up of around 120 full-time journalists, meaning it would be more than halved.

    The cuts are also expected to affect more than 40 back office jobs and around 45 roles in its printing and distribution operations, according to The Telegraph.

    The Hollywood Reporter – ‘Small number’

    A “small number” of editorial layoffs were made at The Hollywood Reporter on Thursday 13 June, according to The Wrap.

    Those affected included longtime TV editor Lesley Goldberg and senior editor of diversity and inclusion Rebecca Sun.

    Goldberg said on X: “To the next generation of THR ‘legacies’, continue to know your worth and do your best to find work-life balance and listen to the words of wisdom of those you respect most. As for me, I’m holding onto two of the most valuable things I’ve learned in my time at THR: good things will always follow bad situations, and Henry Winkler really is as wonderful as everyone who has ever met him says he is.”

    Informa Tech – Unknown number

    Informa has closed two long-running B2B titles: Digital TV Europe and Television Business International.

    Informa would not confirm the number of jobs affected but a farewell message from TBI editor Richard Middleton referenced several staff members including a deputy editor, senior sales manager, marketing chief art director and product manager.

    Digital TV Europe staff at the time of the closure appeared to include an associate editor and a strategic account manager.

    May 2024

    Wall Street Journal – At least 8 people

    At least eight journalists have been laid off amid further cuts at the Wall Street Journal amid a change in how it covers US news “and how we write about the big subjects that grip America”.

    US news will no longer be a standalone coverage area and the East Coast, mid-US and West Coast regional bureaux are closing.

    “Many” of the US news reporters are moving into other teams in the newsroom “in which they are natural fits: real estate moves to finance and economics; reporters covering state and local politics join the politics team; education moves to life and work. And some reporters will move to a new National Affairs team that will take on big topics – abortion, immigration, land use, guns, race,” editor Emma Tucker told staff.

    The “speed and trending” desk is converting into a new breaking news desk and the layoffs come from this team as well as the US news team. NPR reported that at least eight people’s jobs are affected.

    Journalists stuck post-it notes on the windows of Tucker’s office in protest at the job cuts.

    A WSJ spokesperson said: “Our editor-in-chief is reshaping our newsroom with an eye towards digital growth, subscription growth and high-quality journalism. While we recognise change can be difficult, it is necessary to ensure we have the right structure in place to support our objectives.”

    April 2024

    Reader’s Digest – Unknown number

    Reader’s Digest magazine has closed in the UK, its editor-in-chief of six years announced on 29 April.

    Eva Mackevic said: “Unfortunately, the company just couldn’t withstand the financial pressures of today’s unforgiving magazine publishing landscape and has ceased to trade.”

    The number of full-time jobs affected has not been confirmed. Mackevic told freelance writers waiting to be paid that they should be hearing from insolvency practitioners.

    GB News – 40 people

    GB News is aiming to cut 40 roles, initially via voluntary redundancies. Staff are being offered up to two months’ salary and possible payment in lieu of notice to entice them at the initial stage.

    Wall Street Journal – At least 11 people

    At least 11 people have been affected in the second round of layoffs at The Wall Street Journal so far this year, including four producers on the visuals desk, two social media editors, two video journalists, a senior video journalist, a video producer, and one reporter, according to The Daily Beast.

    It was reported that some of the video employees were laid off as a result of the end to a Google partnership that funded the development of Youtube channels based around individual journalists or subject matters.

    Open Democracy – Around 10 people

    Several Open Democracy journalists announced on 10 April that they were being made redundant – including its head of news, news editor, political correspondent and two reporters.

    Press Gazette understands the cuts are also affecting the commercial side of the nonprofit organisation.

    Chief executive Satbir Singh and editor-in-chief Aman Sethi said Open Democracy has been hit by “wider industry trends that include rising inflation and an uncertain funding environment” and which have been exacerbated by the end to some of its funding.

    The business expects to return to a break even position once the redundancy round is complete.

    Mail Sport – Up to 15

    Mail Sport journalists were told on 10 April of an upcoming “significant restructuring” as the brand’s transition to prioritising digital continues.

    Mail Newspapers global publisher of sport Lee Clayton told staff, in a memo seen by Press Gazette, that there need to be “changes in how we are set up as a desk with a digital team leading the commissioning process, supported by newspaper experts who can publish print editions to tight deadlines.

    “With that in mind, we will be embarking on a significant restructuring of the department over the coming weeks.”

    Press Gazette subsequently reported that the restructuring was believed to affect up to 15 sports staff including cricket correspondent Paul Newman, racing correspondent Marcus Townend, Spanish football reporter Pete Jenson and chief sports reporter Matt Hughes, as well as several production staff.

    The Times – At least one person

    Times chief football writer of eight years Henry Winter announced on 10 April he has been made redundant.

    At the time of writing Press Gazette has not yet been able to confirm if Winter was the only person affected or if other roles have been made redundant at the same time.

    March 2024

    i-D Magazine – 8 people

    Redundancies have been made in the UK at fashion title i-D magazine, which was saved from a struggling Vice Media by model and entrepreneur Karlie Kloss in November.

    Eight staff in editorial or social media were let go, as first reported by Puck News fashion correspondent Lauren Sherman and confirmed by Press Gazette.

    The magazine is said to be moving towards a reliance on contributors and five of those eight people have accepted a contributor role, Press Gazette understands.

    Around 19 people remain on staff in the UK, including about eight in editorial and social plus the publishing director. There are plans for i-D to return to print in the autumn.

    Kloss formed Bedford Media to run i-D. Bedford Media announced on 28 March it is also relaunching Life magazine under an agreement with Dotdash Meredith on a regular, but unspecified, schedule.

    Deadspin – Around 11 people

    G/O Media has sold sports blog Deadspin to European start-up Lineup Publishing.

    All staff have been laid off as a result of the sale as Lineup plans to go with a “different content approach”. Around 11 people are affected, according to Adweek.

    A memo from G/O Media chief executive Jim Spanfeller, reported by Dailymail.com, said: “I do want to make it clear that we were not actively shopping Deadspin.

    “The rationale behind the decision to sell included a variety of important factors that include the buyer’s editorial plans for the brand, tough competition in the sports journalism sector, and a valuation that reflected a sizable premium from our original purchase price for the site.”

    He added: “Deadspin’s new owners have made the decision to not carry over any of the site’s existing staff and instead build a new team more in line with their editorial vision for the brand.

    “While the new owners plan to be reverential to Deadspin’s unique voice, they plan to take a different content approach regarding the site’s overall sports coverage. This unfortunately means that we will be parting ways with those impacted staff members, who were notified earlier today.”

    Center for Public Integrity – Around 11 people

    US nonprofit news organisation the Center for Public Integrity, founded in 1989, reportedly laid off staff on 8 March.

    The Center’s union said 11 people were being laid off, “more than half” the union’s unit. The New York Times later said less than half the overall staff were affected.

    The NYT reported about a week earlier that the newsroom fell about $2.5m short of its budget goal of around $6m in 2023 and it was considering merging with a competitor or shutting down.

    TalkTV – Unknown number

    An unspecified number of redundancies were expected at TalkTV as News UK pulled the plug on its linear TV format to focus on cross-platform video content.

    Update: TalkTV staff later began tweeting about their redundancies with TalkTV’s last day on linear on 26 April.

    February 2024

    Cord Cutters News – Three people

    Cord Cutters News, a US-based website centred on streaming services and devices and largely funded by affiliate links, has laid off three people.

    Editor-in-chief Roger Cheng announced on 23 February he and two reporters were leaving after their positions were “eliminated amid the company’s shift in focus to Youtube”.

    “I had fun learning about the ins and outs of the streaming world, and proud of some of the bigger stories I wrote,” Cheng said.

    The site’s owner Luke Bouma, who launched Cord Cutters News ten years ago, wrote on the website on the same day that they plan to “give a renewed focus on helping people know all their options to save money on TV, phone, and related product and service reviews” and “focus more heavily on our YouTube channels, including our main Cord Cutters News channel and our second channel The Breakdown with Luke, where you can find reviews of a range of products”.

    WAMU – 15 people

    Washington DC’s NPR affiliate WAMU is laying off 15 people and shutting down local news site DCist, Axios revealed on 23 February.

    Ten new positions are being added at the same time as it invests in and priorities audio.

    Chief content officer Michael Tribble told Axios: “We feel like this is the best way for us to engage and build loyalty.”

    Vice – ‘Several hundred’ people

    Vice told staff it was “eliminating several hundred positions” on 22 February and will no longer publish content on vice.com.

    Vice chief executive Bruce Dixon said in a memo it was “no longer cost-effective for us to distribute our digital content the way we have done previously” and they will instead “look to partner with established media companies to distribute our digital content, including news, on their global platforms, as we fully transition to a studio model”.

    Engadget – Ten people

    Yahoo-owned tech site Engadget is laying off ten people and restructuring into two teams: “news and features” focusing on traffic growth and “reviews and buying advice” reporting to commerce leaders.

    Editor-in-chief Dana Wollman and managing editor Terrence O’Brien announced that they were among the departures. Wollman noted: “To its credit, Yahoo has a decent severance program.”

    A spokesperson told The Verge on 22 February: “Engadget has played a vital role in tech journalism for 20 years and we’re confident that these efficiencies will support future growth and set us up for the long-term as we continue to deliver the best experience for our readers.”

    Buzzfeed – 16% of staff (possibly up to 190 people)

    Buzzfeed is planning to cut 16% of staff, Axios revealed on 21 February, making savings of $23m. The plan follows the sale of its entertainment brand Complex for $108.6m to livestream shopping platform NTWRK, after acquiring it for $300m in 2021.

    At the end of 2022 Buzzfeed had 1,368 employees. It laid off about 180 people in April 2023 with the closure of Buzzfeed News, so these latest layoffs may have affected up to around 190 people.

    Now This – At least 26 people

    US-based social media news publisher Now This made redundancies on 15 February, although the total is not yet known.

    The journalists laid off included Mike Madden, who led the Now This Tiktok team, senior writer PJ Evans, and senior producer Jasmine Amjad.

    The Now This journalists’ union said 26, or 50% of their members, had been affected.

    The Intercept – 15 people

    US investigative nonprofit The Intercept, which was co-founded by Glenn Greenwald, laid off 15 people on 15 February. Editor-in-chief Roger Hodge left in the changes.

    A memo to staff said it was “facing significant financial challenges” like other media outlets and needs to make changes to become sustainable.

    It said: “With the board’s approval, the leadership team has a plan that we believe paves the way for a more sustainable financial foundation for The Intercept so that we can continue to produce high-quality investigative journalism.

    “We have also implemented other cost-saving measures, including significant salary cuts for the leadership team and the flattening of the management team, to minimise the impact as much as possible.”

    CBS News – Around 20 people

    Around 20 people have been laid off at CBS News in Washington DC, New York and Los Angeles as part of wider cutbacks at parent company Paramount Global affecting 800 people.

    The CBS News staffers made redundant reportedly include chief national affairs and justice correspondent Jeff Pegues and senior investigative correspondent Catherine Herridge.

    Bustle Digital Group – 16 people

    Adweek has reported that seven editorial staff at Bustle Digital Group title Fatherly have been laid off and that the site will “significantly decrease” its output.

    Adweek also revealed that nine full-time employees across the Bustle, Romper and Elite Daily brands were let go in January but this had not previously been reported.

    Wall Street Journal – Around 20 people

    Sixteen reporters and one columnist were let go in a shake-up of the Wall Street Journal’s Washington DC coverage on 1 February, according to the Daily Beast. An unspecified number of editors are also thought to have been affected.

    Editor-in-chief Emma Tucker told staff: “The new Washington bureau will focus on politics, policy, defense, law, intelligence and national security. Damian Paletta, our new Washington coverage chief, starts next week and will focus our efforts in these areas to deliver work that serves the readers and stands out from the competition.

    “This means the Business team in Washington is closing as is the Washington-based U.S.-China team. Stories covered by these groups will be driven by various teams in the newsroom. We are also changing the editing structure in the bureau and are closing the D.C. News Desk; those editing functions will be handled elsewhere in the bureau or on the news desk in New York.”

    Journalism job cuts in January 2024

    The Messenger – About 300 people

    Jimmy Finkelstein’s digital news start-up The Messenger abruptly closed on Wednesday 31 January, with many staff finding out from New York Times, Semafor and Axios reporting rather than management.

    Editor Dan Wakeford reportedly told staff he was “not in the loop” on Slack minutes before the channel shut down.

    The website was wiped less than four hours later. Staff have spoken out about being left with no severance and no health insurance.

    Tech Crunch – About eight people

    Tech Crunch reportedly laid off about eight people on Monday 29 January, with Adweek reporting it plans to “refocus its coverage around the investors, founders and startups of Silicon Valley”.

    Tech Crunch is also winding down its paid subscription product, which first launched in 2019 and was rebranded to its current guise in 2021. It aimed to provide “advice and analysis to help startups” with interviews, newsletters, weekly coaching sessions, ad-free access to Tech Crunch, and more.

    Altfi – Up to 15 people

    London-based fintech news website Altfi announced on Friday 26 January it was closing down after ten years.

    In a farewell note, the team told readers: “Whilst our purpose, journalism and brand following has never been in doubt, we have faced severe headwinds over the last 18 months.”

    The Evening Standard reported that Altfi listed 15 members of staff on its website.

    Forbes – Less than 3% of staff (which could be up to 15 people)

    Forbes staff were told on Thursday 25 January – the same day as union members were on their first day of a three-day walkout over contract negotiations – that it planned to reduced staff by less than 3%.

    Forbes has 500 employees worldwide, according to its website, meaning the layoffs could affect up to 15 people.

    Forbes Media chief executive Mike Federle told staff: “Over the past few years, we’ve continued to find ways to diversify our business and revenue streams, and we’ve seen significant growth as a result.

    “As we continue to position ourselves to fully align with our 2024 business strategy, we have had to reprioritize some resources so that our organization can meet those goals. These changes have resulted in the difficult decision to reduce staff in certain areas.”

    Business Insider – 8% of staff (which could be up to 70 people)

    Business Insider told staff on Thursday 25 January it planned to make 8% of staff worldwide redundant.

    It came less than a year after the Axel Springer-owned title, which then had a headcount of 950 worldwide, laid off 10% of staff in the US.

    Chief executive Barbara Peng told staff that while Business Insider “closed out last year [2023] with a plan in place, a clear target audience and a vision”, 2024 would be about “making it happen and focusing our company”.

    “Unfortunately, this also means we need to scale back in some areas of our organisation.”

    Time magazine – Around 30 people

    Around 30 people were laid off from Time magazine on Tuesday 23 January, including about 13, or 15%, of its union-represented editorial employees, according to CNN.

    The union reported that the layoffs included the majority of staff at the publisher’s news publication for children, Time for Kids.

    Time chief executive Jessica Sibley told staff: “We have worked to manage expenses in other areas of our business aggressively to minimize the impact of this decision on our employees. All of these actions have moved us considerably closer to being a profitable company, an achievement we must reach to realize Time’s full potential.

    “While this was not an easy decision to make, it is the necessary step we must take in order to drive our business forward and improve our financial position as an organization.”

    Pink News – Nine staff at risk

    LGBTQ+ publisher Pink News put nine roles at risk of redundancy in its editorial, brand and people teams. The roles at risk include news editor, entertainment editor, weekend editor, head of brand, and marketing manager.

    The UK-based publisher blamed an “unpredictable financial year… which has necessitated strategic changes to our growth priorities”. The company is leaning into video, it said.

    Los Angeles Times – 115 people

    The Los Angeles Times announced it was laying off at least 115 people, or more than 20% of the newsroom, on Tuesday 23 January.

    The title’s owner Dr Patrick Soon-Shiong said the cuts were necessary because it could “no longer lose $30 million to $40 million a year without making progress toward building higher readership that would bring in advertising and subscriptions to sustain the organization”, the newspaper reported.

    The Washington bureau, photography and sports departments and video unit were particularly hard-hit, it added.

    Soon-Shiong has owned the Times for almost six years, after buying it from Tribune Publishing along with the San Diego Union-Tribune for $500m.

    It came just six months after Los Angeles Times cut 74 roles in the newsroom, or about 13%.

    Mediahuis Ireland – Around 50 people

    Mediahuis Ireland is seeking voluntary redundancies with the aim of cutting costs by €4m annually. Compulsory redundancies could follow if there is not enough staff uptake.

    The publisher of newspaper titles including the Irish Independent, Sunday World and Belfast Telegraph, as well as regionals such as The Kerryman and Wexford Times told staff on Tuesday 23 January it was seeking to reduce headcount by around 10%.

    Around 549 people work for Mediahuis Ireland – 338 in journalism roles and 211 in areas like technology, HR and finance, according to the Irish Independent. Around 50 jobs are therefore expected to go, with 30 in editorial.

    Chief executive Peter Vandermeersch told staff: “I am convinced that our strategy is the right one: to restructure our business to make this a leaner, more streamlined news organisation with the most efficient processes and systems possible, while continuing to produce the highest quality journalism and diversifying our revenues to build a sustainable future for our company.”

    It comes less than a year after a previous round of voluntary redundancies. Its current headcount is already down by about 35% from when Mediahuis bought Irish news publisher Independent News and Media in 2019.

    Sports Illustrated – Most, if not all, staff

    Most, if not all, of Sports Illustrated’s staff were laid off after the publisher’s failure to pay a licensing fee saw the licence revoked.

    The exact numbers of job losses are unclear but it was a heavy hit to the 70-year-old magazine. The Sports Illustrated Union said it had been told of plans to lay off “a significant number, possibly all”, of its members, who work in editorial, on Friday 19 January. According to NPR, the union represented 82 Sports Illustrated employees, or 80% of staff.

    Sports Illustrated owner Authentic Brands Group said it had ended its licensing agreement with The Arena Group, with Front Office Sports reporting this was because Arena missed a $3.75m payment three weeks earlier.

    Authentic Brands Group bought Sports Illustrated’s IP for $110m in 2019 and soon began licensing it to Arena in a ten-year deal.

    Union members were reportedly given 90 days’ notice, during which time there is a chance the licensing deal is resolved, but non-union members were let go with immediate effect.

    Update: Minute Media, which took over publishing Sports Illustrated in March, reportedly hired back more than 90% of editorial employees who worked for it under The Arena Group.

    Design Week – Three people

    Centaur Media closed Design Week on 19 January. Three editorial roles were lost as a result.

    The 38-year-old online magazine told readers that Centaur was shifting strategy to its “core audience of marketers, and focuses on training, information, and intelligence”. It had closed in print in 2011.

    Pitchfork – At least 12 people

    Conde Nast folded the operation of music website Pitchfork into men’s title GQ, with chief content officer Anna Wintour saying: “This decision was made after a careful evaluation of Pitchfork’s performance and what we believe is the best path forward for the brand so that our coverage of music can continue to thrive within the company.”

    Pitchfork editor-in-chief Puja Patel left the company as a result on Tuesday 17 January, along with at least 11 other employees according to AP which reported that ten of those were journalists, leaving an editorial staff of eight.

    Pitchfork, which launched in 1996, had been owned by Conde Nast since 2015.

    Univision – Around 200 people

    Televisa Univision cut around 200 jobs at Univision, a Hispanic network broadcaster in the US, on Wednesday 17 January.

    The company said in a statement: “The evolution of the media landscape has required us to implement efficiencies and cost-cutting measures to meet existing demands and in turn, strengthen our business for the future. As a result, Televisa Univision has made the difficult decision to eliminate a small number of positions in the US across various business units.”

    Cuts affected on-air personalities in news and sport as well as roles in departments like production, sports, digital, and communications.

    NBC News – 50 to 100 people

    Around 50 to 100 people were laid off at NBC News on Thursday 11 January, with a 60-day notice period and severance packages.

    NBC News and its news channel MSNBC made a similar round of redundancies a year ago in January 2023, with about 75 people affected.

    The Messenger – Around 24 people

    Digital news start-up The Messenger, which was launched by former owner of The Hill Jimmy Finkelstein in May last year, cut about two dozen jobs at the start of the year.

    The New York Times said it was a cost-cutting measure as a result of dwindling cash reserves, blamed on a difficult advertising market.

    Major journalism launches/new job roles in 2024

    The Lever – Nine people – April

    US reader-supported investigative news outlet The Lever has expanded with the addition of nine journalists.

    It began life as a two-person newsletter in April 2020 and now has a team of 19.

    Managing editor Joel Warner said: “We’re thrilled that our reader-supported news outlet continues to grow and to attract high-caliber journalism talent that is breaking open huge stories week after week.

    “This is a difficult time for the media industry, but our subscribership and our commitment to accountability journalism are making this expansion possible.”

    The new additions include a senior investigative reporter, senior enterprise reporter, three general reporters, a senior podcast producer, a contributing news designer, a social media and marketing producer, and an editorial fellow.

    The Digital Frontier – 20 people – February

    A new technology newsbrand, The Digital Frontier, is launching in London with a 20-strong team, of which nine are editorial roles producing a website, twice-weekly podcast and daily newsletter.

    Let’s not forget that the progressive watchdog journalism organization Media Matters has cut over a dozen staffers. The nonprofit is scheduled for a trial in April 2025 over its questionable research highlighting antisemitic and pro-Nazi content on X. 

    The leftist mass media die-off is happening as American’s trust in corporate media plummets. X is fracturing the corporate media industrial complex.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/18/2024 – 19:00

  • Anger & Signs Of Rebellion Among Egyptian Troops As Sisi Remains Silent On Gaza
    Anger & Signs Of Rebellion Among Egyptian Troops As Sisi Remains Silent On Gaza

    Via Middle East Eye

    Since the Israeli onslaught on neighboring Gaza following the Oct.7 Hamas attack, Egyptian soldier Mohamed Omar* has felt helpless. Omar, 23, has served as a patrolling officer in Egypt’s North Sinai, along the border with Gaza’s Rafah, over the past year. The region is part of a demilitarized zone according to security pacts between Egypt and Israel, and only soldiers with light weapons are allowed to be deployed there.

    “It is painful to know that you can help, but you are shackled and cannot help rescue your people from being slaughtered,” he told Middle East Eye while on leave in Port Said, a destination for soldiers to rest before heading off to their units in North Sinai. “We’ve been watching and hearing how intense the Israeli bombing in Rafah is, and we see dozens of Palestinian families passing by the borders.”

    Egyptian special forces soldiers deploy near the border with the Gaza Strip on 20 October 2023, via AFP

    Israel’s war in Gaza has so far reportedly killed more than 37,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children – Gaza’s Health Ministry says. Egypt, an ally of Israel since their 1979 peace agreement, has maintained a largely non-confrontational stance towards Israel since the beginning of hostilities in October, even after the Israeli army’s seizure of the strategic Rafah crossing with Egypt in May and the deaths of at least two soldiers in armed clashes with Israeli soldiers earlier this month.

    “We train day and night, and repeat marching chants against the Zionist enemy, and we hear dedicated newsletters bragging about how ready the military is, but when this enemy is killing thousands of our brothers, we sit idle,” Omar told MEE.

    Middle East Eye has met five Egyptian soldiers, including Omar, most of whom have demonstrated their dissatisfaction with the way the government is dealing with the war in Gaza and with the killing of their comrades on the border with Israel.

    The young soldier considers himself and his colleagues “elite fighters” trained to withstand harsh conditions and fight sophisticated targets. His unit, he added, has been reinforced by more elite and well-trained units from the counterterrorism division in North and Central Sinai since October.

    Omar lost two comrades in clashes with Israeli soldiers earlier this month, but their deaths have had little recognition by the Egyptian army, including its senior leadership and President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, he said.

    Amid silence from Egyptian authorities, two soldiers from Faiyum were laid to rest in their hometowns last month after dying in clashes with Israeli forces near the Rafah border. The two soldiers have been identified as Abdallah Ramadan and Ibrahim Islam Abdelrazzaq, who were both 22 years old.

    Despite widespread sympathy for the slain soldiers, they have not received a military funeral or any high-level recognition, and state-linked media have not reported on their deaths.  

    Omar said morale in his unit is low because of the killing of his comrade Abdallah Ramadan. Omar serves in a different platoon than the one Ramadan served in, but he said the response of the government was disrespectful. “How come the martyr Ramadan was not honored and his name was not mentioned, and there were no high ranks at his funeral?” asked Omar.

    “When the lowest-ranking police conscript gets killed in a car accident, they get a military funeral, and Ramadan, who fought the Zionists, gets buried secretly. What a shame!” he added.

    ‘My blood will go in vain’

    Omar said his superiors tried to calm them down after the death of Ramadan, explaining that “the enemy is trying to drag us into this to justify the killing of Palestinians and to use this as propaganda to tell the world Israel is being attacked from all sides”.

    Similar reasons were also cited to the unit where Ahmed Tawfik*, 24, is serving in the mechanized infantry in Ismailia. “The moral affairs officer told us that Egypt is pushing a ceasefire, but the Netanyahu government wants to push Egypt into a war so it continues its aggression on the Arabs and Muslims.”

    Both Tawfik and Omar are concerned that if they die in action during the current diplomatically complicated situation, their deaths will be for nothing. “I am concerned that if I get martyred, my blood will go in vain. Ramadan died and not a single bullet was fired to defend him.”

    A funeral prayer held for Egyptian soldier Ibrahim Islam Abdelrazzaq in Sanhour village in Faiyum, 29 May 2024 (MEE/Sahl Abdelrahman)

    Tawfik said that morale in his unit is low as soldiers have similar fears. “The only thought that makes these men withstand the [compulsory] service is the possibility that they will die as martyrs or that they will die for their homeland,” he said.

    “If the government continues to be apathetic, the soldiers will not be able to restrain themselves from firing at the enemy like the martyr Mohamed Salah,” Tawfik added.

    Last June, Mohamed Salah, a 23-year-old Egyptian police conscript, killed three Israeli soldiers and wounded two others. He was later gunned down by Israeli forces.

    However, Mostafa Marwan*, 25, a medic in Sinai, who is in his final months of service, said he is praying that Egypt does not go to war. “The thousands of conscripts you see … on TV in military parades, they are not the ones who are going to fight. There are thousands of soldiers who do not know how to shoot, or to take care of a wounded fellow soldier.”

    Marwan said these conscripts are trained for only 45 days in basic camp and carry weapons that have been stored since the time of the Soviet Union. “What are they going to do in the face of a military that is supported by the strongest and most sophisticated military in the world?” the young medic said, referring to US backing for Israel. “I am not a traitor, but one has to be realistic.”

    Marwan added that as a military medic he only has basic equipment even though he is a surgeon, and that his superiors are abusive and corrupt. “There are many ways to aid Palestinians, but the Egyptian military going to war is not the answer,” he said. “I am not surprised that the blood of the men on the front was cheap, but that is the result when all Egyptian blood became cheap.”

    ‘Forced to serve’

    While Marwan is anti-war because of the unreadiness of the military, Tamer Samir*, who serves in Cairo in an air defense platoon, believes that Egypt should intervene to help Palestinians, but that he should not be in that military.

    According to the Egyptian constitution, men aged 18 to 30 must serve in the military for at least 18 months, followed by a nine-year obligation to serve if called up for duty.

    Having graduated from an international private university and coming from a well-off family, the 22-year-old Samir believes his conscription does not make sense. “Individuals like me who had the chance to be well educated and know languages should not be forced to serve and fight because we can help develop the country in other ways such as business or economics.”

    Through a powerful connection, Samir’s family was able to secure the calmer posting, where he can go home every night, and only do administrative work. “I don’t really know much about war and politics, but I am looking forward to finishing my service.”

    Like Samir, a lot of Egyptians seek connections either to skip or postpone conscription, or to get their service in big cities or in the administrative or business branches of the armed forces. The result leaves many underprivileged individuals and poorly educated young men on the front, on borders, or head to head with extremist militants.

    “On the frontlines and on the border, you will find only soldiers from poor backgrounds – sons of farmers, workers, fishermen, and impoverished people,” Megahed Nassar*, a counterterrorism soldier in Sheikh Zuwied, who came to Faiyum to attend the funeral of Ramadan, told MEE. 

    “Abdallah Ramadan, Ibrahim Abdelrazzaq, Mohamed Salah, are all sons of poor people, and they paid their lives for the nation, and the government did not pull a finger to fight for their rights or even to defend them,” said Nassar, who is also from Faiyum.

    “Most conscripts are forced to serve, are poor, have no other alternative, and do not have a connection. They go to Sinai and either fight the Israelis or the extremist militants.”

    *Names changed for security reasons.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/18/2024 – 18:40

  • Are Pump-Prices About To Surge Again? API Reports Gasoline Inventory Draw
    Are Pump-Prices About To Surge Again? API Reports Gasoline Inventory Draw

    Oil prices rallied for the second straight day, reaching their highest since April, on “price-supportive rhetoric” from the OPEC and its allies, said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

    The initial “knee-jerk selloff” reaction to the June 2 decision by OPEC+ to phase out voluntary oil-production cuts after the third quarter was “largely reversed and seen as overdone,” Richey told MarketWatch.

    OPEC+ leadership “confirmed that they will remain flexible and only reduce their voluntary output cuts if market conditions warranted, and clarified increasing production is not necessarily a base-case expectation right now,” he said.

    “Evidence of strong domestic demand at the start of the U.S. summer driving season, rising geopolitical tensions overseas and renewed hopes for a perfectly executed [economic] soft landing” by the Federal Reserve have also contributed to oil’s price rebound, Richey said.

    Tonight’s API data is all we have to go on until Thursday (since tomorrow is a market holiday)

    API

    • Crude +2.26mm

    • Cushing +524k

    • Gasoline -1.08mm

    • Distillates +538k

    Crude stocks rose for the third straight week while Gasoline stocks drew down for the first time in four weeks…

    Source: Bloomberg

    WTI traded marginally higher this evening after the API data…

    WTI broke above all of the major technical levels this week…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Geopolitics “returned as a meaningful influence on the markets in recent weeks, as there has been a resurgence in ship attacks in the Red Sea related to the ongoing Israel-Hamas/Hezbollah conflict,” Richey said. Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil and energy infrastructure resumed this week, with a strike at a refined-product terminal in Azov resulting in an explosion and sizeable fire at the facility, he said.

    Sentiment in the oil market, however, is “fragile,” Richey said. “If we see any headlines that contradict any of those factors that have supported the latest rally, or even just an uptick in broad market volatility into the end of the quarter, we could see oil markets correct back towards the mid $70 a barrel range.”

    Finally, we note that the disinflation that has buoyed hopes for The Fed’s first rate-cut, and helped Biden out, may be about to abruptly stall…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Of course, we are sure mom-and-pop gas station owners will be blamed though if prices do rise again!

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/18/2024 – 18:20

  • On The Edge Of The Programmable Ledger: CBDCs
    On The Edge Of The Programmable Ledger: CBDCs

    Authored by J.R. Bruning via The Brownstone Institute,

    New Zealand’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), has opened a consultation on central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).

    This is the second of four stages.

    RBNZ considers that Stage Three will involve the development of prototypes and will be completed between 2028-2029.

    Then, in around 2030, they ‘would introduce digital cash to Aotearoa New Zealand.’

    The language the RBNZ uses, from the rhetoric around risk to the so-called benefits of CBDCs, mimics the language and concerns of the global banking, finance, and technology (Fintech) industry and management consultancy interests. 

    There doesn’t seem to be a role for Parliament to debate whether or not New Zealand’s central bank should even enter the retail currency market. 

    It seems that the financial markets regulator, the regulator of retail banks, presumes that it can grant itself powers to enter the very market it is supposed to regulate, the retail banking market. 

    New Zealand’s central bank is somewhat unusual in that it is charged with broader powers than most central banks. Following a major International Monetary Fund (IMF) review, the RBNZ experienced its greatest transformation process in forty years. 

    The RBNZ is not only responsible for monetary policy, the central bank is the financial markets regulator – responsible for oversight of the financial system and prudential regulation of banks, deposit-takers, and insurance companies. The RBNZ can now decide if a financial institution is too big to fail (systemically important).

    Recently, the RBNZ engaged in large-scale asset purchases, which resulted in billion-dollar losses and appeared to primarily benefit foreign-owned banks.

    The impact of a too-big-to-fail (systemically important) central bank entering the retail environment? This is not the only problem. 

    Major risks revolve around the known interoperability of CBDCs and digital identity (ID) technologies and the programmability potential of CBDC payments.

    RBNZ may be downplaying the tech architecture’s potential, but their business partner Accenture underscores the fact that world-leading CBDC capability will maximise ‘synergies with other national digital initiatives, such as Digital ID, CDR 78 and Real Time Payments through inter-operability.’

    Unlike bank digital currencies in your account today, central bank digital currencies are programmable. Self-executing applications called smart contracts enable payments to be programmed. These smart contracts can be combined, or bundled together on central bank ledgers, a capability known as composability. Smart contracts can be deployed remotely or directly, and third parties can issue directions using programmable three-party locks. 

    This is one thing in a consenting commercial environment. The same capabilities in a government declaring an emergency or crisis and demanding public compliance? What could go wrong?

    Not only are CBDCs programmable and combinable, but the long game involves a plan to interconnect central banks and the Bank of International Settlements so that they will network via a unified ledger.

    When we think about risk, we can’t just think short-term; the tech’s capability in the future must be assessed, and reckoned with, on a global scale. 

    We can’t presume that consumers can either choose or not choose to use CBDCs. Digital IDs will be required for CBDCs, and people must submit to an iris scan, which contains biometric information. Digital IDs are increasingly required to access New Zealand government jobs, services, and funding opportunities. The agencies involved are electing to ignore the fact that drivers’ licenses and passports in New Zealand historically have a low rate of fraud. 

    There is reason to suspect that CBDCs will involve a similar strategic creep.

    The government could regulate that government wages, salaries, or funding opportunities are paid by CBDCs in a similar fashion, ultimately giving people little choice. 

    A recently released discussion paper by the Physicians and Scientists for Global Responsibility New Zealand (PSGRNZ) looks at the New Zealand consultation and the history of policy development by these big global fintech-facing industries. It reveals how no one is considering how these interoperable technologies may represent a potential threat to civil, constitutional, and human rights. From the RBNZ, through government agencies, human rights, and public law experts, New Zealand is silent. 

    ‘Digital government’ is so important in New Zealand that our Attorney General has been equipped with an astonishing and unprecedented plethora of digitising government, intelligence, and surveillance-related portfolios. The potential for Digital ID-CBDC tech, forever connected to the biometric data contained in our iris, to impact rights and freedoms, is unlikely to be addressed by New Zealand’s digital-facing Attorney General. 

    PSGRNZ believe that there are four major risks that must be addressed that the RBNZ is gliding over.

    • First, digital IDs coupled to central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) enhance all-of-government oversight over private activity. Therefore, privacy issues encompass government surveillance, including through backdoor access points, rather than exclusively concerning commercial environments.

    • Second, CBDCs will be transferred electronically using pre-programmable smart contracts. Smart contracts hold the potential to incentivise or disincentivise behaviour through the tethering of activities to access CBDC. Global banking white papers indicate that they will be used to achieve larger policy objectives. The Fintech industry will contract to governments to support the design and control of the digital infrastructure and smart contracts. 

    • The potential for erosion of government oversight is a third concern. Central banks are accountable to sovereign democratic governments. Conventional money creation through the budgetary process arises through processes of negotiation between elected officials, agency heads, and their staff and public lobbying. Private bank money creation through loans is a consequence of political and economic decision-making. Reserve bank power to create or release CBDCs would be at arm’s length from these processes and remain largely confidential or secret in nature.

    • Finally, there is a risk of increased oversight and delegation of the production of strategy, policy, and rules to the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) International Monetary Fund (IMF). This might occur through global harmonisation and ‘best practice’ arrangements while undermining the power of democratic governments. These institutions lead global policy on CBDCs, working closely with the Fintech sector. These institutions are neatly situated to take advantage of such a delegation of powers, and the opportunities presented by unified, networked central bank ledgers at a global scale.

    The broader concerns of members of Parliament, public law experts, and citizens, what might happen when digital government oversight becomes networked across the whole of government is not in scope.

    The act of questioning whether these interoperable, panopticon-like technologies might be contrary to the public interest, is also – not in scope.  

    We also highlight extensive evidence of industry capture in our paper.

    It’s a tale as old as time.

    A new technology becomes possible, and the merchants form trade associations and nurture relationships with government actors to ensure maximum takeup and friendly regulation in the service of nation, empire, and the economy. From the 14th-century livery suppliers in the City of London to the 21st-century Fintech and banking consortiums that provide the skills and services to enable the interoperable digital infrastructure and harness the potential of digital ID and CBDCs, it’s all about strategy, service, and sales. 

    Because, of course, when you think about livery, you think about saddles, bridles, and reins and a flag or two. When you think about central bank currency, you imagine how good it might be. Everyone can access government money (universal basic income – UBIs), and how CBDCs could come as interest-free loans for the little guy.

    But the livery suppliers also supplied weapons, not only for offshore conquests but to halt local rebellions.

    The double-edged sword problem similarly presents itself with CBDCs. But our 21st-century silicon-based tech dilemma is vastly different from slowly forged weapons. 

    It’s a classic industry technique to shrink the issue of risk around a new technology to focus on one discrete component. Meanwhile, the industry developers, from their research and development to their communications and investment strategies, are in no doubt that that discrete piece is nothing without the other puzzle pieces. Whether the end product is a patented formulation or a digital infrastructure, the whole is greater than the sum of its parts.

    As an example of this, government regulatory agencies have for decades insisted that the toxicity of Roundup herbicide revolved around the active ingredient glyphosate. The Roundup trials shed light on industry knowledge that the retail formulation was much more toxic. Similarly, mRNA gene therapies require that a lipid nanoparticle encapsulates the genetic instructions, thereby enabling the genetic instructions to be transported into cells unrecognised. In both these examples, genotoxicity and carcinogenicity testing for the commercial formulation was never required. The writing out of the intended effect of the combined technologies is masterful, really.

    Industries work tirelessly to shape risk framing and regulation to ensure that a toxic ‘sum’ is not recognised. Regulators and government agencies lean on their technical expertise and prioritise industry literature, including unpublished, confidential industry data, while refraining from reviewing public scientific literature that is outside study guidelines. This is not just luck. It’s the result of years of tactical negotiation with industry experts. We also saw this with Roundup and Covid-19 injections.

    So it is ‘natural,’ if we look at the RBNZ’s white papers relating to the benefits of CBDCs, that the networked power of interoperable tech infrastructure would be out of the picture. 

    When it comes to the benefits of CBDCs, the RBNZ thinks like the industries that have captured it. 

    Regulatory capture is much more than the classic definition, where ‘regulation is acquired by the industry and is designed and operated primarily for its benefit.’ 

    Our understanding of regulatory capture has expanded significantly beyond the revolving door problem. When it comes to highly specialised science and technology sectors, industry experts can lead, control, and shape policy design. Expertise and information have arrived for years via white papers, industry workshops, briefings, global conferences, consensus statements, media coverage, lobbying, and networking. Industry-led principles and values then shape domestically-produced white papers and policies. Government risk assessment and policy papers then reflect industry language and framing. The net effect is that the domestic laws and guidelines are perfectly acceptable to the regulated industries and their global colleagues. 

    This then influences public sector knowledge and shapes how policy is designed, corralling laws and regulations to achieve certain aims. Saltelli et al (2022) describes this as cognitive or cultural capture, with the effect that regulators think like the industry they are charged with regulating.

    Government agencies also hire billion-dollar management consultancies to help formulate and deploy strategies. Yet these very same consultancies have been on the ground from the get-go, working with global banking and fintech, writing white papers, establishing industry conferences, and attending global conferences, for years. The role of the consultants in this is a neat piece of the puzzle. 

    Billion-dollar management consultancy Accenture has been hired to help the RBNZ with their CBDC campaign. Accenture’s key partners are the biggest corporations in the world. Accenture has been working on Digital IDs with global bankers and Fintech for decades, fully aware that Digital IDs will be integral for access to CBDCs. Accenture is fully aware of the interoperability of Digital IDs and CBDC and their RBNZ dossier discloses this.

    It’s no wonder that the New Zealand public aren’t invited to accept or reject CBDCs. The RBNZ consultation merely invites the public to share their opinions on a small range of issues that exclusively concern CBDCs. 

    To date, all the RBNZ CBDC-related information is exclusively supplied by the agency with a massive political and financial conflict of interest.

    The RBNZ claims that trials and protocols will be developed over the coming 4 years, with CBDCs being released in 2030.

    Our white paper recommends a different track. We consider that for the next six years (two election cycles) no public trials will be held, and that we instead carefully observe the impact in other jurisdictions. This includes impacts across the political and democratic landscape and impacts on civil, constitutional, and human rights in early adopting countries. Then, only after 2030, either a parliamentary or public vote would be held to give the RBNZ the permission to release retail CBDCs. 

    Central banks should not be permitted to decide their own destiny. 

    PSGRNZ believe it is critical to step back from the brink and consider that the risks are not black and white, but nebulous and difficult to anticipate. Yet the risks may be so considerable that they hold potential to erode civil, constitutional, and human rights. In such an environment the RBNZ is not well placed to consider risks, when the conflicts of interest – their potential expansion of powers – are so extraordinary. 

    At the moment, the silence of New Zealand’s political, legal, and governance scholars is deafening. And yes, after publishing this paper PSGRNZ sent it to all the academic experts we could identify who had expertise in administrative, constitutional, and/or human rights law, across New Zealand’s five law schools. No one has as yet responded.

    In finishing, let’s consider a quote from New Zealand’s University of Victoria Institute for Governance and Policy Studies:

    Safeguarding long-term interests, however, is not easy. There are strong political incentives in democratic systems for policy-makers to prioritise short-term interests over those of future generations. Powerful vested interests often hinder prudent economic or environmental stewardship. Governments must also grapple with deep uncertainty, policy complexity and multiple intra-generational and intergenerational trade-offs. Given such challenges, determining how best to govern for the future is not straightforward; nor is assessing the quality of such governance.

    *  *  *

    PSGRNZ (2024) Stepping Back from the Brink: The Programmable Ledger. Four democratic risks that arise when Digital IDs are coupled to Central Bank Digital Currencies. Bruning, J.R., Physicians & Scientists for Global Responsibility New Zealand. ISBN 978-0-473-71618-9.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/18/2024 – 18:00

  • Netanyahu Rips Biden: 'Inconceivable' That US Weapons Were Ever Halted
    Netanyahu Rips Biden: ‘Inconceivable’ That US Weapons Were Ever Halted

    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has accused the Biden administration of withholding weapons transfers to Israel, in violation of stated promises that Washington would remove all restrictions on arms deliveries.

    Netanyahu revealed this during a video address discussing meetings with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken days ago during his trip to Israel. Netanyahu further addressed international media reports on the US throttling weapons deliveries as punishment for mass civilian atrocities and alleged war crimes in Gaza.

    “When Secretary Blinken was recently here in Israel,” began the Israeli leader in an English-language video, “we had a candid conversation, I said I deeply appreciated the support the US has given Israel from the beginning of the war.”

    “But I also said something else, I said it’s inconceivable that in the past few months, the administration has been withholding weapons and ammunitions to Israel,” he continued, publicly airing his obvious frustration with President Biden.

    GPO/Times of Israel

    “Secretary Blinken assured me that the administration is working day and night to remove these bottlenecks,” he added. “I certainly hope that’s the case. It should be the case.”

    Netanyahu further advanced an argument recently used by Ukraine’s Zelensky. He said Israel must urgently be provided with more and more American weapons as only then could the war could be brought to a more rapid close.

    “During World War II, [UK leader Winston] Churchill told the United States, ‘Give us the tools, we’ll do the job,'” said Netanyahu. “And I say, give us the tools and we’ll finish the job a lot faster.”

    Meanwhile, despite reports that US has slowed its deliveries, more major arms packages for Israel are making their way through Congress, as The Washington Post reports:

    Two key Democratic holdouts in the House and Senate signed off on a major arms sale to Israel, including 50 F-15 fighter jets worth more than $18 billion, after facing intense pressure from the Biden administration and pro-Israel advocates to allow the transaction to move forward, said three U.S. officials familiar with the matter.

    Rep. Gregory Meeks, who importantly is the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, has been among those hold-outs who earlier demanded assurances from President Biden that Israel won’t use US weapons to commit war crimes or civilian killings.

    “I don’t want the kinds of weapons that Israel has to be utilized to have more deaths,” Meeks said in April. “I want to make sure that humanitarian aid gets in. I don’t want people starving to death, and I want Hamas to release the hostages. And I want a two-state solution.”

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    One of the arguments made by proponents of new arms deals with Israel is that more advanced, sophisticated weaponry makes for better targeting and thus reduces the likelihood of mass civilian deaths.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/18/2024 – 17:40

  • We Approach 'State' Singularity
    We Approach ‘State’ Singularity

    Authored by Bruce Pardy via The Brownstone Institute,

    Many citizens of the West believe that they live in free societies, or something close…

    But as time goes on, public authorities increasingly insist on having a say in everything…

    People cannot build things on their own land without permits. They cannot run businesses without approvals and inspections. They cannot give advice without professional designations. They cannot educate their children outside of state-mandated curricula. They cannot hire employees without triggering a myriad of workplace and tax requirements. They cannot produce and sell milk, cheese, or eggs without a license. They cannot earn money, spend money, or hold property without being taxed, and then taxed again. 

    Jeffrey Tucker recently described three layers of omnipotent managerial technocracy. 

    • The deep state, he suggested, consists of powerful and secretive central government agencies in the security, intelligence, law enforcement, and financial sectors. 

    • The middle state is a myriad of ubiquitous administrative bodies – agencies, regulators, commissions, departments, municipalities, and many more – run by a permanent bureaucracy. 

    • The shallow state is a plethora of consumer-facing private or semi-private corporations, including banks, Big Media, and huge commercial retail companies, which governments support, protect, subsidize, and pervert. The three layers work together. 

    For instance, in the financial sector, as Tucker illustrates, the deep state’s Federal Reserve pulls the powerful strings, the middle state’s financial and monetary regulators enforce myriad rules and policies, and the shallow state’s “private” titans like BlackRock and Goldman Sachs dominate commercial activity. It’s a system, Tucker writes, “designed to be impenetrable, permanent, and ever more invasive.” 

    We are approaching state singularity: the moment when state and society become indistinguishable. 

    In physics, a “singularity” is a single point in space-time. Inside black holes, gravity crushes volume to zero and mass density is infinite. In computer science, “technological singularity” is unitary artificial superintelligence. At the singularity, everything becomes one thing. Data points converge. Normal laws do not apply. 

    At state singularity, the state becomes society and society is a product of the state.

    Legal norms and expectations become irrelevant. The state’s mandate is to do as it judges best – since everything and everyone are expressions of its vision. Powers are not separated between the state’s branches – the legislature, the executive, the bureaucracy, and the courts. Instead, they all do whatever they deem necessary. The bureaucracy legislates. Courts develop policy. Legislatures conduct hearings and prosecute cases. Government agencies change policies at will. The rule of law may be acknowledged as important in principle while it is rejected in practice.

    State singularity is the ultimate collectivism. It resembles old-style fascism and communism, but it is neither. Fascist states enforce an idea, often nationalist in sentiment (“The motherland for the superior race”), and recruit private actors, especially corporations, to the cause. Communist regimes champion the working class and outlaw private property (“Workers of the world unite”). Singularity, in contrast, is not propelled by an idea other than singularity itself. To justify its own hegemony, the state champions a variety of other causes. In the modern era, social justice, climate change, transgender rights, feminism, economic reform, and many more have served to extend the state’s reach. Problems are rarely solved, but that is not the reason for taking them up.

    State singularity develops gradually and insidiously. Whereas fascist, communist, and other centralized power regimes often result from deliberate political revolution, in the West omnipotent managerial technocracy has grown, spread, and infiltrated the nooks and crannies of social life without sudden political upheaval. Like a form of institutional Darwinism, public agencies, no matter their formal purpose, seek to persist, expand, and reproduce. 

    At the singularity, all solutions to all problems lie with government in its various forms. More, never less, programs, rules, initiatives, and structures are the answer. Like black holes, state singularities absorb and crush every other thing. Corporations serve state interests and participate in managing the economy. Singularities destroy voluntary community organizations by occupying the space and placing obstacles in the way. Both the left and the right seek to harness state power to craft society in their image. 

    In a singularity, one cannot propose to eliminate government. Doing so would be contrary to prevailing ideology and vested interests, but more fundamentally, the idea would be incomprehensible.

    And not just to officials. Citizens dissatisfied with the services they receive want more service and better policy. When schools sexualize their children, they demand changes to the curriculum instead of the end of public schools. When monetary policy makes houses expensive, they demand government programs to make them cheap instead of the end of central banks. When government procurement is revealed to be corrupt, they demand accountability mechanisms instead of a smaller government. State singularity is found not just in the structures of government but in the minds of the people. 

    Modern states have capacities they have never had before. Technological advances are providing them with the ability to monitor spaces, supervise activities, collect information, and require compliance everywhere all the time. In the collectivist regimes of old, governments knew only what human eyes and ears could tell them. Soviet authorities were tyrannical, but they could not instantaneously monitor your cell phone, bank account, fridge, car, medications, and speech.

    We are not at the singularity yet. But have we crossed the event horizon? At a black hole, the event horizon is the point of no return. Gravity becomes irresistible. No matter or energy, including light, can escape the pull to the singularity at the core of the abyss. 

    Our event horizon beckons. We cannot evade it by merely slowing down on the path that we are on. Liberation requires escape velocity in the other direction.  

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/18/2024 – 17:20

  • Apple Reportedly Halts Work On Vision Pro 2, Focuses On Cheaper Version As Demand Falters 
    Apple Reportedly Halts Work On Vision Pro 2, Focuses On Cheaper Version As Demand Falters 

    What was Apple CEO Tim Cook thinking?

    Releasing the Vision Pro headset earlier this year for the price tag of $3,899 (for a 1TB version) in a period where Goldman, including ourselves, has shown the American middle class has quickly deteriorated under Bidenomics – was likely a terrible idea. 

    Perhaps Cook has since gotten the memo amid slumping demand, as a new report from The Information suggests Apple suspended work on the second-generation Vision Pro and diverted efforts to focus on a cheaper version.

    Apple has told at least one supplier that it has suspended work on its next high-end Vision headset, an employee at a manufacturer that makes key components for the Vision Pro said. The pullback comes as analysts and supply chain partners have flagged slowing sales of the $3,500 device.

    The company is still working on releasing a more affordable Vision product with fewer features before the end of 2025, the person involved in its supply chain and a person involved in the manufacturing of the headsets said. Apple originally planned to divide its Vision line into two models, similar to the standard and Pro versions of the iPhone, according to people involved in its supply chain and former Apple employees who…

    One Vision Pro supplier allegedly slashed production by 50% in May after receiving a dismal demand outlook from Apple. The report also said that Apple has likely produced less than half a million units, with no further plans to ramp up production through August.

    If the report is accurate, it underscores how Apple mispriced the Vision Pro – and even with BNPL loans – consumers still didn’t bite.

    This is not entirely surprising, as Ming-Chi Kuo, an analyst at TF International Securities, recently noted a downward revision in Apple’s sales expectations, from a ‘market consensus’ of 700k to 800k units to a more modest 400k to 450k units in 2024.

    Google searches of “Vision Pro” show the headsets appear to be just a fad. 

    Here’s what X users are saying about the report…

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    So, how much will a ‘more affordable’ Vision Pro cost? 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/18/2024 – 16:40

  • The Glue Binding Democracy And A Free Economy Has Melted
    The Glue Binding Democracy And A Free Economy Has Melted

    Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

    And that’s how democracy and a free economy die…

    An astute reader asked me to clarify the difference between individual sacrifice and shared sacrifice in the context of the Common Good, which as he rightly noted, dictatorships use as the justification for oppressive enforcement of a regime that benefits the few at the expense of the many.

    In a democracy with a free economy, the Common Good is the responsibility of the citizenry, not a dictatorship. In the current zeitgeist, the Invisible Hand of free markets is understood as a magical force that automatically generates the Common Good out of the churn of everyone aiming to get rich or die trying.

    In other words, the Common Good is somebody else’s responsibility: there’s no need for shared sacrifices, the economy and society take care of themselves as we all get rich or die trying.

    This isn’t how a society actually works. Somebody has to mind the store of social capital that enables us to focus our energy on individual sacrifices made on our own behalf.

    The single-minded pursuit of greed does not magically organize the economy or society to serve everyone’s interests equally. As Adam Smith explained, capitalism and the social order both require a moral foundation, which in a free society takes the form of civic virtue: it is the responsibility of every citizen who is able to contribute to the social capital that serves us all to do so not in response to an oppressive state but of their own free will.

    The Founding Fathers understood this and feared the decay of civic virtue as a threat to democracy. This was one reason why many of those active in the early decades of the American Experiment favored restricting voting to the class of citizenry who had the biggest stake in maintaining the nation’s stock of social capital: the landed / commercial elites.

    Commentators such as Christopher Lasch have described the steady erosion of civic virtue and the nation’s stock of social capital since the 1970s. Lasch and fellow critics across the ideological spectrum understood that civic virtue is the glue that binds democracy and a free economy: once civic virtue and the responsibility to contribute to the nation’s social capital are gone, both democracy and the free economy enter terminal decline.

    Social capital, civic virtue and the Common Good are not easily defined or measured. They cannot be reduced to numbers like GDP. This confuses ideological purists, left and right, as social capital, civic virtue and the Common Good cannot be distilled down to simplistic ideological formulations.

    This is why Lasch’s work cannot be pinned down as “left” or “right”: ideologues on both ends of the spectrum find references in his work they agree with. He was addressing issues larger than political or economic ideologies.

    The glue of America’s social order–civic virtue–has melted away, and few have even noticed. The concept of voluntary attention to the common good–an attention that requires shared sacrifice–has been jettisoned as unnecessary: all we need to do is focus on getting rich by any means available.

    This has led to a complete breakdown of the moral foundations Adam Smith identified, and a breakdown of the nation’s shared social capital. If our sole responsibility has shrunken down to getting rich by any means available, then quite naturally we bribe politicians, crush competition to establish cartels and monopolies, degrade the quality of our goods and services to increase profits and addict our customers to rake in steady profits.

    Consider the difference between Old Money and private equity. Private equity slavishly worships at the altar of mobile capital and increasing shareholder value. Private equity assembles mobile capital from the ends of the Earth–Dubai, London, Hong Kong–and swoops in when it detects an asymmetry between the potential market value and the current valuation of an asset.

    Unlike Old Money, which is anchored in a place embedded in a specific culture and social order, private equity has no sense of place or responsibility for contributing to a locale’s social capital. Private equity swoops in, buys the asset, sells off pieces to the highest bidders, reorganizes what’s left, slaps a quick coat of paint on it and then cashes out via a public offering of equity or debt or a private sale.

    The damage done to the local economy, populace and its stock of social capital by this stripmining is of no concern to private equity: get in, maximize profits / gains and then get out, and start circling the planet for the next “opportunity to increase shareholder value.” (Hence the term “vulture capital.”)

    Old Money, rooted in a place and its history, does care about the local economy, populace and its stock of social capital. Yes, Old Money makes money with its money; that is the nature of capital. But Old Money understands that stripmining assets with zero concern for the wreckage left behind does not support either democracy or a free economy that offers a somewhat level playing field to all participants.

    This is why it’s wise to relocate to a place where Old Money still resides and still maintains an active role in maintaining the social capital of their home base. Living in places dominated by the culture and values of private equity is voluntary servitude in a rotting ship without a compass or leadership.

    Old Money keeps an eye on the stock of social capital, and voluntarily engages in using its wealth and influence to preserve or enhance it. Mobile capital flits around the globe, happy to fund a university building here and there to enhance their personal “brand.” They don’t actually care about any place; that’s someone else’s responsibility.

    And that’s how democracy and a free economy die. The glue of civic virtue, of doing the hard part of maintaining the stock of social capital and devoting some care to the common good in this place and in this time–those are somebody else’s responsibility.

    Me, I’m busy: my underlings located an asset just begging to be dismembered, offshored, stripmined, and we’re going to make a killing. Then I’m off to my flat in London, then to my getaway in the South Pacific, and then to a quick meeting in Shanghai. I’m busy making a killing.

    Yes, a killing. What died is democracy and a functional economy of equal opportunity. Once the glue melts away, things fall apart. Welcome to what’s left of the 2020s and the 2030s.

    *  *  *

    Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com.

    Subscribe to my Substack for free

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/18/2024 – 16:20

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Jun 18

Today’s News 18th June 2024

  • Live Fire Incident: Casualties Reported After North Korean Soldiers Cross Military Demarcation Line
    Live Fire Incident: Casualties Reported After North Korean Soldiers Cross Military Demarcation Line

    Something big is happening on the heavily militarized Korean border, following several days of soaring tensions which has included North Korea flying hundreds of trash and feces-filled balloons into the south.

    There are several reports of dozens of North Korean soldiers having briefly crossed the border, and soon retreating, after warning shots were fired by South Korean border troops, according to South Korea’s Yonhap news agency.

    Per Reuters, citing Yonhap at about 11:00am local time: “South Korea’s military fired warning shots after North Korean soldiers crossed the Military Demarcation Line near the border, the Yonhap news agency reported on Tuesday citing the country’s Joint Chiefs of Staff.”

    South Korean Marines patrol days ago amid heightened tensions, AP/Yonhap/

    A Yonhap wire has further said “Korea military suffers ‘multiple casualties’ in landmine explosion near border.”

    While details of exactly what is happening are still emerging, this comes one week after a live fire incident occurred along the border. Last Tuesday, South Korean border forces fired warning shots after troops on the other side ‘accidentally’ crossed the border in the south. 

    Here is what happened exactly one week ago:

    “There were no unusual movements other than the North Korean army immediately moving north after our warning shots,” South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff spokesman, Col. Lee Sung-jun, told a briefing.

    He generally downplayed the incident which happened Sunday, and suggested there was no indication the enemy troops were seeking to invade territory.

    “The South Korean military is closely monitoring the movements of the North Korean military and taking necessary measures.”

    If casualties among DPRK troops are confirmed, this could be the start of a major live fire incident between the two historic enemies, also as Kim Jong-Un has been warning he could restart nuclear tests.

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    US state-funded Stripes reported yesterday:

    North Korean troops have been observed creating anti-tank barriers, reinforcing roads and carrying out other military projects within the Demilitarized Zone, according to the South’s military on Monday. South Korean intelligence agencies spotted the improvements near the border in recent days, army Col. Lee Seong-jun, a spokesman for the country’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, said during a news conference Monday.

    Lee declined to elaborate on the North’s activities at the border and said the South’s military was still analyzing its operations. North Korean troops were also observed building walls and roads between the Military Demarcation Line — the actual border between the two Koreas — and the Demilitarized Zone, an unidentified military source said in a Yonhap News report Saturday. The 2½-mile-wide DMZ spans 150 miles across the Korean Peninsula from coast to coast.

    Nuclear saber-rattling has been coming out of Pyongyang since last summer, when the US Navy parked a nuclear submarine in South Korea for the first time in years.

    South Korea’s Ministry of National Defense: North Korean inside the Demilitarized Zone that divides the Korean Peninsula last year.

    Pyongyang has also reportedly deployed extra troops the border amid the escalating tit-for-tat.

    developing…

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/17/2024 – 23:00

  • Hot On The Campaign Fail: Secret Service Agent Robbed, WH Spox Mocked After Biden Propped
    Hot On The Campaign Fail: Secret Service Agent Robbed, WH Spox Mocked After Biden Propped

    This weekend wasn’t great for the Biden campaign – after a viral video showed the president ‘freezing’ on stage during a star-studded ‘weekend at Biden’s’ event in LA, and a Secret Service agent getting robbed at gunpoint that same night. Oh, and then Biden had a nursing home outburst at reporters. And to top it all off, Spox Karine Jean-Pierre wants us to believe recent videos of Biden are deepfakes.

    If we’re to start this out properly, on Thursday, Biden wandered off during a G7 flag ceremony when he was supposed to participate in a group photograph with a bunch of European leaders who just got their clocks cleaned in last week’s election.

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    On Friday, Biden did this to the pope:

    Then on Saturday, Biden froze up on stage during his own fundraiser, requiring an assist from former President Barack Obama.

    That same night a Secret Service agent was robbed at gunpoint in Tustin, California at roughly 9:30 local time, the Tustin PD reported on Monday.

    The agent was able to fire their weapon at the armed robbers, who made off with a bag belonging to the agent, police said.

    “A member of the U.S. Secret Service was the victim of an armed robbery in Tustin, California late Saturday when returning from a work assignment,” Secret Service spokesman Anthony Guglielmi told The Post.

    “The employee discharged their service weapon during the incident but unknown if the assailants were struck,” he added. “We are thankful that the employee did not sustain any injuries.” –NY Post

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    Then on Monday, Biden had a complete nursing home outburst at a reporter.

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    In response to the Biden wandering video above, White House Spox Karine Jean Pierre suggested it was a deepfake.

    For which she was mocked:

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    Meanwhile left-wing influencers swear Biden wasn’t corralled off stage by Obama.

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    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/17/2024 – 22:40

  • Israel's Arms Exports Hit Record Sales Amid Gaza War
    Israel’s Arms Exports Hit Record Sales Amid Gaza War

    Via Middle East Eye

    Israel’s defense ministry said in a statement on Monday that its arms exports for 2023 hit a record in sales, as Israel’s war in Gaza enters its ninth month and as the country’s military continues to be supplied with hundreds of millions of dollars in American weapons.

    The report by the defense ministry said that the total exports of Israeli arms reached $13.1bn in 2022, an increase of $500m from the previous year and double the amount of exports from five years ago. More than a third of the sales comprised missiles, rockets and air-defense systems, with one of the biggest contracts of 2023 being with Germany, which signed a deal to purchase the Arrow 3 long-range air defense system for around $4bn.

    A picture shows Israel’s Rafael stand at the Dubai Airshow in the Gulf emirate in 2021, AFP

    “While our industries are primarily focused on providing the defense establishment with the capabilities to support our troops and defend our citizens, they are also continuing to pursue areas of cooperation and exports to international partners,” Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said in a statement.

    Roughly half, 48 percent, of all sales went to the Asia and Pacific region, while Europe accounted for 35 percent of sales, and North America accounted for nine percent.

    The figures were released by the defense ministry as a growing number of countries have begun to boycott or suspend the purchase of weaponry from Israel, citing the country’s ongoing destruction of Gaza and killing of tens of thousands of Palestinians there.

    Colombia announced it would be pausing its purchases of Israeli arms, after its president, Gustavo Petro, called Israel’s actions in Gaza a genocide.

    In May, a French court banned Israeli companies from participating in an annual defense industry exhibition, with the country’s defense ministry saying the move was likely linked to Paris’ objection to an Israeli assault on Rafah, the southernmost city in Gaza where more than a million Palestinians had fled to in order to escape Israeli bombardment.

    Prioritizing international market despite war at home

    Bloomberg reported that some of Israel’s biggest weapons manufacturers were asked in the early weeks of Israel’s war in Gaza to prioritize supplies to Israel’s military. However, with the war still going on and there being no end in sight, these companies are focused on the international market.

    “If Rafael wants to be able to provide for Israel as well as stay ahead of the game in research and development, we need international markets, which are our only assurance for real growth,” Gideon Weiss, the company’s vice president for international business development, said in a statement given to Bloomberg.

    Israel’s began on October 7, when Palestinian militants led by Hamas broke out of Gaza and launched on attack on southern Israel, killing around 1,200 people and taking around 240 people captive. Israel responded with an immediate siege of Gaza, and launched an aerial bombardment campaign followed by a ground invasion. So far, Israel has reportedly killed more than 37,000 Palestinians, according to the Palestinian health ministry.

    Israel’s largest arms firm, Elbit Systems, has a base of operations in Kent, UK. Activists broke in and destroyed machinery and equipment…

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    The US has supported Israel’s war efforts, sending tens of thousands of weapons, including precise bombs and ammunition to help fill the military’s supply lines. Israel currently has around $23bn worth of active military contracts with the US.

    For years, the US has been Israel’s largest suppliers of weapons, making up for 69 percent of Israeli arms imports between 2019 and 2023, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri). The US also provides Israel with $3.8bn in military assistance each year.

    Many of these recent arms transfers, given their size and individual cost, have also gone under the public radar, making it difficult to know the true extent of how many weapons the US has sent to Israel since October.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/17/2024 – 22:20

  • Retail Sales To Beat Estimates According To Latest Card Spending Data
    Retail Sales To Beat Estimates According To Latest Card Spending Data

    Last month was the first time in about a year, when the Bank of America retail sales forecast – one derived from real-time debit and credit card spending and which is usually spot on and unerringly correct – was wrong, predicting a small beat when in fact the final number was a big miss, printing unchanged on consensus estimates of a 0.4% increase, with the control group unexpectedly contracting by a whopping 0.3%.

    So will tomorrow’s retail sales be two in a row when Bank of America’s cheerful forecast has been wrong? We doubt it: after all, as regular readers are aware the hit rate of BofA’s approach is remarkable.

    With that in mind, BofA reports that total card spending per household (HH), as measured by BAC aggregated credit and debit cards, was up 0.7% year-over-year (y/y) in May, if down 0.9% month-over-month (m/m) in May on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis. This comes on the back of a 1.3% surge in BAC card spending per HH in April, and a 0.7% drop in March. The bank attributes these large fluctuations to the lingering effects of this year’s unusually early Easter weekend.

    As BofA economist Aditya Bhave writes, “seasonal distortions have impacted retail sales in four of the last five months. We economists don’t enjoy writing about them, but here we go again. BAC card spending tends to be particularly low on Easter Sunday, which is usually in April. However, this year it fell on March 31. It seems that our seasonal factors do not fully account for this shift. This lowered SA spending levels in March and boosted them for April. In turn, we think SA spending growth in May looks soft because of an unfavorable base effect.“

    In short another month where the underlying reality will be distorted by seasonal adjustments, and since it is unclear in what direction the Biden Census Bureau will seek to nudge the numbers, a prediction of tomorrow’s official print tomorrow could be a gamble.

    Still, that does not prevent BofA from making such a forecast, and writes that the Census Bureau’s seasonal factors appear to have leaned strongly the other way: retail sales were very strong in March and soft in April. As a result, the bank attempted to resolve the discrepancy between its own seasonal factors and those of the Census. This results in forecasts of 0.3% and 0.6% growth in retail sales ex-autos and the core control group (retail sales ex autos, gas, building materials and restaurants), respectively, in May.

    That would mean in-line core and headline prints, and a far stronger control group number, printing at double the forecast.

    There is another variable: the government’s retail sales data have been subject to significant revisions this year (as have all other data), both to the upside (in the March report) and the downside (in the January, February and April reports). The risk, BofA notes, “is that this trend will continue” (especially to the downside). Revisions to retail sales for prior months could impact the m/m growth rate for May, everything else being equal.

    One other observation from BofA: in 2019, card spending accelerated among Northeasterners around Memorial Day, but slowed among residents of other regions.

    By contrast there was no “Memorial Day bump” in any region last year.

    This year, Northeasterners raised their spending around Memorial Day again, although not to the same degree as in 2019.

    This may suggest that the region continues to regain its economic vibrancy. Meanwhile, residents of other regions saw less of a spending drop than in 2019.

    One final point: after enjoying a big jump from pre-covid levels to the post-covid reality (snapshot taken in May 2023), discretionary spending as a percentage of total is effectively unchanged in the past year.

    More in the full note available to pro subs in the usual place.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/17/2024 – 22:00

  • NYT Documents: Putin Was Willing To Compromise To End War In 2022
    NYT Documents: Putin Was Willing To Compromise To End War In 2022

    Authored by Kyle Anzalone via AntiWar.com,

    In April 2022, Ukraine and Russia were on the brink of signing a deal to end the war just weeks after it began. The New York Times published documents showing President Vladimir Putin was willing to make concessions to get an agreement signed.

    According to the documents, Putin initially sought to have Kiev recognize Moscow’s 2014 annexation of Crimea. However, a draft agreement from April 15, 2022, suggests both parties were prepared to set aside the issue to end the conflict. “Paragraph 1 of Article 2 and Articles 4, 5, and 11 of this Treaty shall not apply to Crimea and Sevastopol,” the document says.

    Swiss peace summit this past weekend, AFP

    In December, Ukrainian negotiator Oleksandr Chalyi explained that an agreement was reached in the spring of 2022, stating the two sides “managed to find a very real compromise. We were very close in the middle of April, in the end of April, to finalize our war with some peaceful settlement.”

    Kiev was also willing to accept neutrality with regards to NATO, according to the NYT. Ukraine’s negotiation team proposed a peace deal that would say the country “does not join any military alliances” and “does not deploy foreign military bases and contingents.”

    The draft deal would have allowed Kiev to sign bilateral agreements with NATO states, as well as become a member of the European Union, but would have required Ukraine’s security partners to lift sanctions on Russia.

    The Kremlin also sought to protect the rights of millions of Russian speakers living in Ukraine by forcing Kiev to repeal restrictions on the Russian language, and to bar the state from erecting monuments glorifying neo-Nazis and WWII-era Nazi collaborators.

    As the talks were ongoing, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was pushed by his Western backers to forgo diplomacy and attempt to forcibly expel Russian troops from his country. Then-UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson made an infamous trip to Kiev to pressure Zelensky to abandon any peace negotiations, while Washington repeatedly vowed to supply unlimited military aid.

    The NYT report added details about US pressure on Ukraine to ditch the talks. According to a senior American official familiar with the negotiations, Washington “quietly said, ‘You understand this is unilateral disarmament, right?’”

    Additionally, the NYT noted that Polish leaders believed the French and German governments might have endorsed the peace agreement and pushed Ukraine to accept it. During a meeting in late March 2022, Poland’s President Andrzej Duda pressured other NATO leaders not to allow Ukraine to sign the Russian proposal.

    Independent journalist Michael Tracey provides some further nuance in the following:

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    Some US officials cautioned Ukraine not to trust Russia and warned the talks were merely a military ploy. However, two out of three Ukrainian negotiators who spoke with the NYT believed the Russian proposal was genuine, and one explained Putin had “reduced his demands” over the course of the discussions.

    Ultimately, decision-makers in Kiev listened to their supporters in Warsaw, London, and Washington and elected to break off the negotiations. More than two years later, the conflict drags on, with Russian forces steadily advancing on major Ukrainian cities despite renewed Western military aid.

    On Friday, the Russian president extended a public peace offer to Ukraine that is similar to the one nearly agreed to in 2022. However, along with Kiev agreeing never to join NATO and the West lifting sanctions on Russia, the Kremlin is now demanding that Ukraine recognize Moscow’s sovereignty over Crimea and four other Ukrainian oblasts that have been annexed by Russia throughout the two-and-a-half-year-long war.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/17/2024 – 21:40

  • Israel Says It's On "Brink" Of Wider War With Hezbollah
    Israel Says It’s On “Brink” Of Wider War With Hezbollah

    There’s been obvious escalation for several weeks at the Israel-Lebanon border, as we’ve been documenting. But on Sunday Israel’s military issued one of the most dire alarms yet, saying it is on the brink of a full-scale war with Hezbollah.

    “Hezbollah’s increasing aggression is bringing us to the brink of what could be a wider escalation,” the Israeli military’s chief spokesman, Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, warned. “We are committed to the diplomatic process, however Hezbollah’s aggression is bringing us closer to a critical point in the decision-making regarding our military activities in Lebanon.”

    Anadolu/Getty Images: A plane tries to extinguish a fire after Hezbollah missile attacks on Safed city. 

    The statement was tailored largely in response to ongoing pressure from the Biden administration to avoid launching a bigger war at all costs.

    The White House has repeatedly warned that escalation in Lebanon would neither be good for Israel nor for the region, and would risk a broader major war with Iran. There is also widespread acknowledgement that Hezbollah, the Shia paramilitary group backed by Iran, is much more powerful and better armed force than Hamas:

    “Hezbollah is the crown jewel in the Iranian empire of terror and evil and is by far the most powerful Iranian proxy, equipped with nation state capabilities and even more firepower than several European countries have today,” former IDF spokesman Jonathan Conricus told Fox News.

    “In a military comparison, Hezbollah is far more powerful than Hamas,” he added.

    Earlier this month Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, “Whoever thinks he can hurt us and we will respond by sitting on our hands is making a big mistake.” He had added at a time when massive fires were spreading in the north due to constant Hezbollah drone and missile attacks, “We are prepared for very intense action in the north.”

    The past several days have seen hundreds more missiles and drones launched by Hezbollah onto northern Israeli bases and settlements.

    White House adviser Amos Hochstein has been meeting with Netanyahu in Jerusalem Monday to talk about the escalating crisis. The NY Times described the backdrop as follows: “Hezbollah’s attacks have gradually intensified, with the group using larger and more sophisticated weapons to strike more often and deeper beyond the border. Both sides have refrained from engaging in full-blown war, but the tension has increased in the past week.”

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    Below is an interesting perspective on what’s really happening from Middle East researcher and historian Ori Goldberg…

    * * *

    The Israeli military is the main force behind the public push towards a war with Lebanon. There are three reasons for this state of affairs. The first is the growing realization in the IDF that there will be no “victory” in Gaza. The “war” is an abysmal failure. …Israel convinced itself it could “eradicate” Hamas exclusively. Israel failed. Israelis don’t care about the death of Palestinian civilians.

    So the lack of “victory” necessitates an alternative form of ״redemption”. This, the IDF believes, can be found in a “real” war. It will be difficult and costly, they say, but it will provide a clear sense of achievement. That is how you snap out of an existential funk.

    The second reason for wanting war has to do with Israel’s strategic error – the decision to evacuate more than a 100000 civilians from our Northern border. They were evacuated under the false pretenses that Hizballah was about to invade and start a two-front war.

    The IDF is now stuck. The civilians were told there was an impending invasion. How will they return home? How will the IDF fulfill its most basic duty in its own perception- defending Israeli civilians? The IDF can recommend negotiations with Lebanon. Not really.

    The IDF does not believe in negotiations. It assumes Israel will, ultimately, have to go to war against Lebanon (remember, they all want to destroy us). The IDF can deploy more troops at the border to calm the civilians down. That is seen as expensive and impractical.

    War is the only “option” on the table. It is “inevitable” (to be clear, I think Israel will not start a war). It is the only “resolution”. The third reason the IDF wants war is because the Israeli political system is beginning to break down across the board.

    The citizens may agree with government policy (support for the genocide) but they don’t trust the government. The government itself is torn between settlers (pining for empire) and generals (focused on “military dominance), and is soing very little governing.

    PM Netanyahu never accepts responsibility for his actions. He is a world class outsourcer of blame. The IDF knows that Netanyahu will blame the military leadership for the only “mistake” Israelis care about- the very occurrence of the October 7th massacre.

    Nobody in Israel cares about the genocide. This is as astounding as it is true. Israeli want a scapegoat to “take responsibility” for what they perceive as the initial failure (no context or history preceding the massacre). Netanyahu wants to indict the military brass.

    A war in Lebanon will vindicate the military there as well. As Israel implodes, they will be able to present a success. Lessons will have been learned and “order” restored. This is Israel now, so consumed with itself it thinks nothing of consuming everyone else.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/17/2024 – 21:20

  • How Trump Wins The Debate – And The Election
    How Trump Wins The Debate – And The Election

    Authored by Frank Miele via RealClearPolitics,

    It’s the demeanor, stupid.

    The public already overwhelmingly supports Donald Trump on the issues. But what many of them worry about is his demeanor. In other words, does he “act presidential”?

    So, on June 27, when Trump joins President Joe Biden on CNN for the earliest general election presidential debate in U.S. history, it’s not going to matter what the former president says so much as how he says it.

    Think of it as the equivalent of a medieval knight running the gauntlet. Every question from pro-Democrat moderators Jake Tapper and Dana Bash and every taunting response from President Biden about threats to democracy will be an opportunity for Trump to lose his temper or to alienate moderate voters with intemperate replies.

    But if Trump keeps his cool in hostile territory – and CNN is definitely hostile –  he will pick up invaluable points in the “seems more presidential” surveys that will certainly follow. The demeanor issue could cement Trump as the winner not just of the debate, but of the 2024 election itself.

    Of course, Biden and his team are betting that Trump can’t keep his cool. They are no doubt thinking about the first debate of the 2020 campaign when Trump came across as a ferocious junkyard dog by constantly interrupting Biden and insulting him. That’s exactly what the Biden campaign is hoping for this time around, and if their calculation is right, then the president may be able to ride his “sympathetic, well-meaning elderly man with a poor memory” persona to victory in the fall.

    Remember, this debate and another one in early September were proposed by Biden at a time when he was trending badly behind Trump in the polls, especially in battleground states. Presumably, the Biden campaign believed the early debates would shore up his support and hurdle him over the much indicted, and now convicted, former president.

    But that doesn’t have to be true. All of the potential pitfalls for Trump are clearly marked with giant cartoonish neon signs of pointing fingers flashing the message “Pitfall here, dummy!” Even if Trump is distracted by his legal battles, hopefully his campaign team will make sure that he is prepped and ready to avoid each obstacle, such as making ambiguous jokes like “dictator on day one,” demeaning the elderly president as “Crooked Joe,” and talking more about himself than about the problems of everyday Americans.

    If Trump remembers to act presidential, and not like an attack dog, there is every reason to believe he will attract voters eager for a change. Ironically, that’s partly because the Biden campaign’s ground rules for the debate have the potential to work in Trump’s favor. There will be no live audience for the debate, which Biden probably thought would rob Trump of the fuel that feeds his reality-TV personality. In addition, microphones will be turned off for each candidate when they are not responding to the moderators. Both of those changes could help Trump avoid a repeat of the bullying performance that may have cost him the election in 2020. In addition, turning off Trump’s mic will force Biden to complete his responses without making gaffes or getting lost in his addle-pated syntax, an opportunity Trump missed in the 2020 debate.

    Nonetheless, the moderators will have their sights set on Trump, whom they have criticized repeatedly on CNN. Three topics are certain to be raised by Tapper and Bash – election interference in 2020, election acceptance in 2024, and Hunter Biden. It is essential that Trump be ready for them, and then having successfully addressed them, demand that the moderators ask questions about substantive issues.

    Biden, on the other hand, just needs to speak coherently and lie about his record, with certainty that the moderators will not ask any follow-up questions.

    Here are three examples of how Trump’s responses to the most obvious questions can get him through the media minefield and closer to his objective – victory in November. The key in each case is to remain calm, relate his responses to the voters, and ignore the provocations tossed his way.

    1) Mr. Trump, since the end of your term as president, you have become a convicted felon in a New York election interference case, and face an additional 55 felony charges in three jurisdictions. In addition, a majority of senators voted after you left office to convict you of inciting an insurrection. Why do you consider yourself fit for office when the president is the chief law enforcement officer in the country?

    Jake, I’m glad you asked me that question. I don’t want this debate to be all about me. Or even about my opponent. The American people want to hear me and Joe Biden discuss the hard issues facing the country – namely, crippling inflation, out-of-control illegal immigration, and a world on the brink of war. But the people have a right to know that I maintain my innocence regarding all the charges brought by my political opponents. It’s a sad day when Democrat prosecutors will go to any lengths to destroy me and to prevent me from promoting the policies that will save this country. But it’s not about me. It’s about a corrupt system of justice that the people have lost confidence in. Donald Trump isn’t the first person to get caught up in a two-tier system of justice. You can ask any black or Hispanic family whether they know someone who was railroaded into prison. They’ve lost faith, but I will restore that faith. Not only am I fit for office, but I am the first person to run for president who has experienced what black and minority families have known for decades. And I will fight for them.

    2) Mr. Trump, after the 2020 election, you refused to accept the results even though more than 50 courts ruled against you. To this day, you call President Biden an illegitimate president, and you are currently under indictment for election interference. Now, Americans want to know if you will accept the results of the 2024 election regardless of who wins.

    Dana, thank you for asking me that question. First of all, I need to correct you on one point. I believe it was more than 60 courts, but none of them heard our evidence of election fraud by the Biden campaign and his surrogates. In other words, we were never given the opportunity to prove our case of election tampering, and the national media failed miserably in looking at the facts objectively. Just saying the election was “safe and secure” does not make it so. Everyone knows the media was out to “get Trump” and to “protect Biden,” and in that regard, nothing has changed since 2020. But more importantly, as we look at accepting the Nov. 5 election results, it is not relevant who wins the election. All that matters is that the election be conducted fairly and transparently. And Dana, you can’t guarantee that will happen. Earlier this month, Democrat officials in Connecticut were charged with election fraud, and there’s no reason to believe the coming election will be any more fair unless it is completely transparent. No one should give up their right to look at the evidence and make up their own minds about the underpinnings of our democracy. “Eternal vigilance is the price of liberty.”

    3) Mr. Trump, you continually claim there is a two-tier system of justice, but in recent weeks, the Biden Department of Justice has charged or put on trial New Jersey’s Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez, Texas Congressman Henry Cuellar (another Democrat), and President Biden’s own son, Hunter Biden. Hunter Biden was convicted of three felonies, and could be sentenced to jail time despite your attacks on the attorney general and the president, who has said he will not pardon his son nor commute any sentence. Isn’t it about time that you admit that the American system of justice is fair and even-handed?

    Jake, this may be the most important question facing millions of Americans, even more important than whether they can afford to put food on the table, pay rent, or buy a home of their own – which many of them can’t. Of course, it’s not up to me to pass judgment on the three gentlemen you bring up in your question. Everyone can make up their own mind about whether justice is served in those cases. But I guarantee you that millions of black and minority families don’t trust the government to administer justice fairly, and the individual verdicts won’t make them forget their own experiences – their own children or parents sent to prison for long sentences, their own struggles against a system that too often rewards those with money or a celebrity name. Nothing can make them forget how they and their families were overlooked by a system gone awry. As for Hunter Biden, I won’t comment on his conviction on gun charges, but I will say that his story is an all-too-common American tragedy. My brother Fred was an alcoholic. His struggles with addiction mirror the experience of millions of Americans. I sympathize with the family of Hunter Biden and hope that he gets the help he needs.

    If former President Trump follows the example laid out in these mock questions and answers, and worries more about reassuring the public about himself than attacking his opponent, it is almost certain he will also be future President Trump.

    Frank Miele, the retired editor of the Daily Inter Lake in Kalispell, Mont., is a columnist for RealClearPolitics. His newest book, “What Matters Most: God, Country, Family and Friends,” is available from his Amazon author page. Visit him at HeartlandDiaryUSA.com or follow him on Facebook @HeartlandDiaryUSA or on Twitter or Gettr @HeartlandDiary.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/17/2024 – 21:00

  • "Shouldn't Be Happening": Illegal Alien Gang Member Arrested In Death Of Maryland Mom Of Five
    “Shouldn’t Be Happening”: Illegal Alien Gang Member Arrested In Death Of Maryland Mom Of Five

    Marylanders were outraged to learn this weekend that an illegal alien suspected gang member, who entered the US under President Biden’s open southern borders and with the support of woke leftist politicians in Annapolis who have transformed parts of the state into ‘Lil Mexico,’ was responsible for last year’s high profile murder of a Maryland mother. 

    In a press conference Saturday, Harford County Sheriff Jeffrey Gahler revealed an arrest was made in the murder of Rachel Morin, the mother of five who was killed while on a jog on a popular hiking trail in Harford County last August. 

    Gahler said Victor Antonio Martinez Hernandez, a 23-year-old from El Salvador, was arrested on Friday at a bar in Tulsa, Oklahoma, and taken into custody in connection with the killing of Morin. 

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    “Over the past two weeks, investigators continued their diligent investigation and tracked our suspect all the way from Prince George’s County (woke leftist hellhole that borders DC) into Tulsa, Oklahoma,” the sheriff said, noting, “Our investigators also obtained an arrest warrant (Friday) afternoon.”

    “We are 1,800 miles from the southern border here in Harford County,” Sheriff Gahler said, adding, “This is the second woman in our county to be killed by illegal suspects.”

    “In both cases, they are suspects from El Salvador with ties to criminal gangs,” the sheriff said. 

    He continued, “Victor Hernandez did not come to this country to make a better life for him or his family, he came here to escape the crimes he committed in El Salvador. He came here to murder Rachel and God-willing, no one else.” 

    Local police say Hernandez crossed over Joe Biden’s open southern border in February 2023, just one month after he killed a young woman in El Salvador. 

    Another high-profile case was Laken Hope Riley, 22, who was killed while jogging in a park on the University of Georgia campus by an illegal alien earlier this year. 

    The illegal alien killers would’ve never crossed into the US if it wasn’t for Biden’s disastrous open southern border policies that have flooded the nation with ten-plus million unvetted migrants. At the same time, Democratic mayors and politicians have prioritized illegals over their own constituents.  

    Biden’s unlawful mass parole of illegal aliens and its “catch and release” policy have allowed illegal aliens to roam freely. 

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    Polling data shows a majority of Americans are fed up with the crime and chaos Democrats are sparking with the illegal alien invasion and not enforcing common sense law and order in imploding progressive cities. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/17/2024 – 20:40

  • Why Modi's India Is Suddenly Getting Washington's Cold-Shoulder
    Why Modi’s India Is Suddenly Getting Washington’s Cold-Shoulder

    Authored by Finian Cunningham,

    Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi could be forgiven for thinking the United States has a schizoid view of his government and the world’s most populous country.

    Modi’s narrow re-election this month was greeted in the U.S. media with petulant satisfaction that Indian voters had “woken up”, as an oped piece in the New York Times put it.

    The Washington Post’s editorial board rebuked Modi with the headline: “In India, the voters have spoken. They do not want autocracy.”

    The Post editors went on to say that Modi “will lack a free hand for further repression of civil society, imprisonment of the opposition, infiltration and takeover of democratic institutions, and persecution of Muslims.”

    That is quite a withering rap sheet for a political leader who not so long ago was given the VIP treatment in Washington.

    Other U.S. media outlets also sounded smug that India’s legislative elections had returned a diminished majority for Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The “shock setback” for India’s strongman would mean that his Hindu nationalist politics would be restrained and he would have to govern during his third term with more moderation and compromise.

    The American media’s contempt for the 73-year-old Indian leader is a dramatic turnaround from how he was lionized by the same media only a year ago.

    Back in June 2023, Modi was feted by U.S. President Joe Biden with a privileged state dinner in the White House. The Indian premier was invited to address the Congress and the media were rhapsodic in their praise for his leadership.

    Back then, the Washington Post’s editors recommended “toasting” Modi’s India, which Biden duly did at the White House reception. Raising a glass, Biden said: “We believe in the dignity of every citizen, and it is in America’s DNA, and I believe in India’s DNA that the whole world – the whole world has a stake in our success, both of us, and maintaining our democracies.” With trademark stumbling words, Biden added: “[This] makes us appealing partners and enables us to expand democratic institutions across, around the world.”

    Modi may well wonder what happened over the past year. The Indian leader has gone from receiving the red carpet treatment to having the rug pulled from under his feet.

    The difference is explained by the changing geopolitical calculation for Washington, which is not to its liking.

    It is not that the Indian government under Modi has suddenly become a bad strongman who has taken to trashing democratic institutions and repressing minorities. Arguably, those tendencies have been associated with Modi since he first came to power in 2014.

    The United States had long been critical of Modi’s Hindu nationalism. For more than a decade, Modi was persona non-grata in Washington. At one stage, he was even banned from entering the country owing to allegations that he was fanning sectarian violence against Muslims and Christians in India.

    Washington’s view of Modi, however, began to warm up under the Trump administration because India was seen as a useful partner for the U.S. to counter China’s growing influence in the Asia-Pacific, a region which Washington renamed as the Indo-Pacific in part to inveigle India into its fold. To that end, the U.S. revived the Quad security alliance in 2017 with India, Japan and Australia.

    The Biden administration continued the courting of India and Modi who was re-elected in 2019 for his second term.

    Biden’s fawning over India culminated in the White House extravaganza for Modi last June when the U.S. media championed the “new heights” of U.S.-India relations. There were at the time residual complaints about India’s deteriorating democratic conditions under Modi, but such concerns were brushed aside by the sweep of media eulogizing, epitomized by Biden’s grandiloquent toasting of the U.S. and India as supposedly world-conquering democratic partners.

    It was discernible though that all the American charm and indulgence was setting India up for an ulterior purpose.

    In between the lines of effusive praise and celebration, the expected pay-off from India was that it would be a “bulwark” for U.S. interests against China and Russia.

    As a piece in CNN at the time of Modi’s visit last year in Washington asked: “Will India deliver after lavish U.S. attention?”

    The article noted with some prescience: “India and the U.S. may have different ambitions and visions for their ever-tightening relationship, and the possibility that Biden could end up being disappointed in the returns for his attention on Modi.”

    The Indian leader certainly did receive some major sweeteners while in the U.S. Several significant military manufacturing deals were signed such as General Electric sharing top-secret technology for fighter jet engines.

    Still, despite the zealous courting of New Delhi, over the following months, the Modi government appeared not to change its foreign policy dramatically to suit Washington’s bidding.

    India has had long-held strained relations with China over border disputes and regional rivalry. Nevertheless, Modi has been careful not to antagonize Beijing. Notably, India did not participate in recent security drills in the Asia-Pacific along with the U.S. and other partners.

    New Delhi has also maintained its strong support for the BRICS group that includes Russia, China, Brazil and other Global South nations advocating for a multipolar world not in hock to Western dominance.

    This traditional policy of non-alignment by India is not what Washington wants. It seems that Modi did not heed the memo given during his splendid Washington visit. He rebuffed the American expectation of steering India towards U.S. geopolitical objectives of toeing a tougher line against China and Russia.

    What seems to have intensified Washington’s exasperation with Modi is the worsening proxy war against Russia in Ukraine. After two and half years of conflict, President Vladimir Putin’s forces have gained a decisive upper hand over the NATO-backed Kiev regime. Hence, Biden and other NATO leaders have begun to desperately ramp up provocations against Moscow with recent permission for Ukraine to use Western long-range weapons to hit Russian territory.

    When Modi visited Washington last June, the West was (unrealistically) confident that the Ukrainian counteroffensive underway at the time would prove to be a damaging blow to Russian forces. Western predictions of overcoming Russian lines have waned from the cruel reality that Russian weapons and superior troops numbers have decimated the Ukrainian side.

    During Modi’s state trip last year, Washington’s focus was on getting India to act as a bulwark against China, not so much Russia. Modi has not delivered on either count, but the situation in Ukraine has cratered, from the NATO point of view.

    Commenting on U.S. priorities last June, Richard Rossow of the Washington-based think-tank the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said: “If the invasion went worse for Ukraine, or was destabilizing the region, the Biden administration might have chosen to reduce the intensity of engagement with India. But the United States has found that nominal support to Ukraine, with allies and partners, has been sufficient to blunt the Russian offensive…” (How wrong was that assessment!)

    Rossow continued his wrongheaded assessment: “Russia’s ineffective military campaign [in Ukraine] has also underscored the fact that China presents the only real state-led threat to global security, and the United States and India are steadily deepening their partnership bilaterally and through forums like the Quad to improve the likelihood of peace and tranquility in the region. So long as this strategic relationship continues to grow, it is unlikely that a U.S. administration will press India to take a hard line on Russia.”

    Washington and its NATO allies have got their expectations about Russia losing the conflict in Ukraine all badly wrong. Russia is winning decisively as the Ukrainian regime stumbles towards collapse.

    This is a double whammy for the Biden administration. China and Russia are stronger than ever, and India has given little in return for all the concessions it received from Washington.

    From the American viewpoint, India’s Modi has not delivered in the way he was expected to by Washington despite the latter’s fawning and concessions. New Delhi has remained committed to the BRICS multipolar group, it has not antagonized China and it has not succumbed to U.S. pressure to condemn Russia. Far from condemning Moscow, India has increased its imports of Russian oil and gas.

    Now with the U.S. and NATO’s reckless bet on Ukraine defeating Russia looking like a beaten docket, Washington’s disappointment with India is taking on an acrimonious tone.

    In one year, Modi’s India has gone from a geopolitical darling to a target of U.S. recrimination over alleged human rights violations and democratic backsliding. It is not so much that political conditions in India have degraded any further. It is Washington’s geopolitical calculations that have been upended. Hence the chagrined and increasingly abrasive attitude towards New Delhi from its erstwhile American partner.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/17/2024 – 20:20

  • "Clearly Not Satisfied": McDonald's Winds Down IBM's Drive-Thru AI Chatbot Test
    “Clearly Not Satisfied”: McDonald’s Winds Down IBM’s Drive-Thru AI Chatbot Test

    “McDonald’s essentially told operators that drive-thru AI is in its future. But it is clearly not satisfied with the one it has been testing,” Jonathan Maze, editor-in-chief of Restaurant Business, wrote on X at the end of last week. 

    Maze penned a note in Restaurant Business that revealed McDonald’s is winding down its two-year artificial intelligence pilot test with an IBM chatbot at more than 100 restaurants. 

    The Chicago-based fast-food giant is ending this test without any sort of expansion, according to an email sent to franchisees on Thursday. Restaurant Business has obtained a copy of that email.

    But the company did not dismiss the prospect of drive-thru AI, suggesting that McDonald’s plans to find a new partner for its automated order taking efforts. -Maze

    Perhaps this is why McDonald’s is ending the IBM AI drive-thru ordering partnership by the end of July… 

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    @themadivlog How did I end up a butter #fyp ♬ The Office – The Hyphenate

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    @typical_redhead_ I thought TikTok would appreciate this 💀 #fyp #foryou #foryoupage #comedy #fail ♬ Monkeys Spinning Monkeys – Kevin MacLeod & Kevin The Monkey

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    “While there have been successes to date, we feel there is an opportunity to explore voice ordering solutions more broadly,” Mason Smoot, chief restaurant officer for McDonald’s USA, wrote in a message to operators, obtained by Restaurant Business. 

    Smoot said, “After a thoughtful review, McDonald’s has decided to end our current partnership with IBM on AOT and the technology will be shut off in all restaurants currently testing it no later than July 26, 2024.”

    He noted that the fast food chain will have “an informed decision on a future voice ordering solution by the end of the year.”

    McDonald’s explained to Restaurant Business that its pilot test was to determine if chatbots could speed up drive-thru times: 

    “As we move forward, our work with IBM has given us the confidence that a voice-ordering solution for drive-thru will be part of our restaurants’ future. 

    “We see tremendous opportunity in advancing our restaurant technology and will continue to evaluate long-term, scalable solutions that will help us make an informed decision on a future voice ordering solution by the end of the year.”

    In December, McDonald’s announced a partnership with Google to deploy generative AI.

    So, will a much wider rollout of the chatbots include Google AI technology? 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/17/2024 – 20:00

  • The Corruption Of Merrick Garland
    The Corruption Of Merrick Garland

    Authored by Jonathan Turley,

    This week, Attorney General Merrick Garland took to the pages of the Washington Post to lash out at critics who are spreading what he considers “conspiracy theories crafted and spread for the purpose of undermining public trust in the judicial process itself.” His column, titled “Unfounded attacks on the Justice Department must end,” missed the point.

    It is Garland himself who has become the problem. The solution is in Wilmington, Delaware, where 12 average citizens just showed a commitment to the rule of law that seems to be harder and harder for the attorney general to meet.

    Since his appointment, Garland has repeated a mantra that he is apolitical and would never yield to the pressures of politics or the White House. When he was nominated, I believed that claim and enthusiastically supported Garland’s confirmation. He was, I thought, the perfect man for the job after his distinguished judicial service as a moderate judge.

    I was wrong. Garland’s tenure as attorney general has shown a pronounced reluctance to take steps that would threaten President Biden.

    He slow-walked the appointment of a special counsel investigating any Biden, and then excluded from the counsel’s scope any investigation of the massive influence peddling operation by Hunter Biden, his uncle and others.

    However, it is what has occurred in the last six months that has left some of us shaken, given our early faith in Garland.

    I have long been a critic of Garland’s failure to order a special counsel to look into the extensive evidence of corruption surrounding the Bidens. As I stated in my testimony in the Biden impeachment hearing, there is ample evidence that Biden lied repeatedly about his knowledge of this corruption and his interaction with these foreign clients.

    However, a more worrisome concern is the lack of consistency in these investigations.

    First, Special Counsel Robert Hur found that Biden knowingly retained and mishandled classified material. However, he concluded that Biden’s age and diminished faculties would make him too sympathetic to a jury. It was less sympathetic than pathetic, given that this is the same man who is running for re-election to lead the most powerful nation on Earth. More importantly, Garland has not made obvious efforts to reach a consistent approach in the two cases by dropping charges based on the same crimes by Trump in Florida. (Such action would not affect the obstruction counts).

    Second, Garland has allowed Special Counsel Jack Smith to maintain positions that seem diametrically at odds with past Justice Department policies. This includes Smith’s statement that he will try Trump up to (and even through) the next election. It also includes a sweeping gag order which would have eviscerated free speech protections by gagging Trump from criticizing the Justice Department. While Garland has said that he wants to give the special counsels their independence, it falls to him to protect the consistency and values of his department.

    Garland’s most brazenly political act has been the laughable executive privilege claim used to withhold the audiotape of the Hur-Biden interviews. The Justice Department has not claimed that the transcript is privileged, but only that the audiotape of Biden’s comments is privileged. This is so logically disconnected that even CNN hosts have mocked it.

    The Justice Department went further in court by adding conspiracy to absurdity as part of its unhinged theory. It asserted a type of “deepfake privilege” on the basis that the release of the audiotape could allow AI systems to create fake versions of the president’s words. It ignores that there are already ample public sources now to create such fake tapes and that, by withholding the real audiotape, the Justice Department only makes such fake copies more likely to arise and ensnare the unwary.

    Most importantly, the arguments of a “he-who-must-not-be-heard” privilege or a deep-fake privilege are ridiculous. Garland knows that, as would any first-year law student. Yet, he is going along with a claim that is clearly designed to protect Biden from embarrassment before the next election. It is entirely political and absurd.

    After stumbling through a half-hearted defense of the audiotape decision before he was held in contempt of Congress, Garland was faced with another clear test of principle. Three House committees (Oversight, Judiciary, and Ways and Means) this month referred for prosecution cases of perjury against Hunter Biden and his uncle, James Biden. Despite what appear to be open-and-shut allegations that they lied to Congress, most everyone in Washington believes that Garland and the Justice Department will slow-walk and then scuttle the referrals to protect the Bidens.

    This is the same Justice Department that seemed on a hair-trigger to prosecute Trump officials for perjury and contempt after referrals from Democrat-controlled committees.

    The questions at issue were not “gotcha” traps, like showing up at Michael Flynn’s office to nail him on his description of a meeting with Russian diplomats. These were some of the most-discussed questions heading into Hunter Biden’s long-delayed appearance before the committees.

    Hunter is accused of lying about his position at Rosemont Seneca Bohai, a corporate entity that moved millions of dollars from foreign individuals and entities to Hunter Biden. He also allegedly lied about the identity of the recipient of his controversial message to a Chinese businessman, in which he threatened that his father was sitting “right next to me” and would join him in retaliating against the Chinese if they did not send millions. They promptly wired the money as demanded.

    Hunter’s answers appear to be demonstrably untrue. Yet, there is little faith that the Justice Department will allow the matter to be presented to a grand jury. If Garland’s pledge to remain apolitical were widely accepted, there would be little question about the prosecution of such compelling claims.

    Garland now appears entirely adrift in his own department. While mouthing platitudes about being beyond politics, he continues to run interference for the Biden White House. He appears to be looking to close aides for such direction.

    He should instead look to those 12 people in Wilmington, Delaware.

    Despite facing overwhelming evidence of Hunter Biden’s guilt, his legal team pursued a jury-nullification strategy. Wilmington is Bidentown, the hometown for the president and his family. An array of Bidens, including the first lady, lined up behind Hunter during the trial, in case anyone forgot that fact.

    Yet the jury convicted Hunter on all counts without any hesitation.

    Despite sympathy for a recovering drug addict in a town that has overwhelmingly supported the Bidens for decades, “nobody mentioned anything about political motivations” in the jury room, as one juror noted. “I was never thinking of President Joe Biden,” said another.

    Garland needs to show a modicum of that courage and principle as attorney general. He could start by dropping the farcical privilege claims over the audiotape and sending the referrals to the U.S. Attorneys Office for the same priority treatment afforded to Trump officials like Flynn.

    As it stands, few believe that will happen, despite Garland’s repeated line about transcending politics. It is not the mantra that is in doubt, but the man.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/17/2024 – 19:40

  • Putin To Arrive In North Korea Tuesday, First Visit In 24 Years
    Putin To Arrive In North Korea Tuesday, First Visit In 24 Years

    On Monday the Kremlin has revealed details of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s trip to North Korea. Last week South Korea’s Yonhap news agency predicted that Putin could show up in the North Korean capital “as early as next week” as part of an expected Asian tour that will include Vietnam.

    The Kremlin has now revealed that the Russian leader will fly to Pyonyang on Tuesday and will stay for one night. It will mark the first time Putin has visited the country since the year 2000 when he met with Kim Jong-il.

    Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov, Defense Minister Andrey Belousov, and some other top officials will accompany Putin on the trip.

    A state media announcement detailed that “The two sides are expected to sign a number of documents during the visit, according to Ushakov, including a potential comprehensive strategic partnership agreement.”

    “The Russian delegation will also engage in extensive talks with its North Korean counterpart on a number of issues, including bilateral relations, the economy, security, and international cooperation,” RT continued. “Putin is also expected to attend a state concert being held in honor of his visit and hold informal talks with Kim.”

    Last week, Kim said that “meaningful” ties with Russia will “further consolidate the eternal milestone” in a new era of relations, according to state KCNA. Putin will in essence be returning the favor of a visit, after Kim toured Russia’s far east last year, and reportedly inspected several weapons and space-related sites.

    During that prior trip, Kim had said closer relations with Moscow are his “number one priority” – as both countries find themselves under heavy US-led sanctions.

    The Ukraine war, and accompanying Western punitive sanctions, have resulted in Russia forging closer defense and trade ties with US rival, enemies, and ‘pariahs’ like Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, and China. The US has even accused North Korea is supplying immense amounts of artillery shells and military supplies for Moscow’s war efforts in Ukraine.

    Reuters previously reported this week that Putin is expected in Vietnam from June 19 to 20. This fresh Kremlin news release confirms that the North Korea trip will take place before that.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/17/2024 – 19:20

  • No Charges In Deadly ATF Arkansas Home Raid
    No Charges In Deadly ATF Arkansas Home Raid

    Authored by Beth Brelje via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The use of deadly force was legal and justified in the March 19 early morning fatal shooting of Bryan Malinowski by federal agents in his West Little Rock, Arkansas, home, according to Pulaski County Prosecutor Will Jones, who said in a June 14 letter that there would be no charges in the case.

    An armed Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives agent reaches toward the doorbell camera at the home of Bryan Malinowski moments before disabling the video recording and breaching the door with a tactical team in a predawn raid in West Little Rock, Ark., on March 19, 2024. (Malinowski Family via Bud Cummins)

    Mr. Malinowski was executive director of the Bill and Hillary Clinton National Airport in Little Rock until that morning, when a convoy of 10 law enforcement vehicles entered his upscale neighborhood and agents from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF), holding automatic rifles in the ready position, placed tape on his video doorbell, announced their presence, and in less than one minute, broke into the home while he was sleeping. Mr. Malinowski, a gun collector, woke up, grabbed his gun, exchanged gunfire with ATF agents, and Mr. Malinowski was shot dead in front of his wife.

    The ATF had obtained a warrant to search his home for guns and evidence. The agency believed that Mr. Malinowski was selling guns without a $200 Federal Firearms License and without asking buyers for the proper information. According to an affidavit of probable cause, some of the guns that he had sold were recovered during the commission of a crime, although the crimes didn’t involve the direct use of guns.

    It’s unclear why the ATF didn’t contact Mr. Malinowski at his workplace or during normal waking hours.

    Timeline

    Bryan Malinowski. (Courtesy of Bill and Hillary Clinton National Airport)

    Mr. Jones said the incident was recorded by a Little Rock Police Department mobile video recorder and from that he shared the timeline in his letter.

    6:02:58 a.m.—The Little Rock patrol officer employed his vehicle’s emergency lights and siren to announce the presence of law enforcement.

    6:02:59 a.m.—ATF agents began a series of knocking and announcing the ATF’s presence.

    6:03:27 a.m.—Agents use a ram to breach the door.

    6:03:43 a.m.—Mr. Malinowski fires the first of four shots from his Colt Defender .45-caliber semi-automatic handgun.

    6:03:44 a.m.—ATF agent returns fire, discharging three shots.

    Mr. Jones also included a summary of the witness statements and evidence, although he didn’t identify the witnesses.

    “The first agent (Agent 1) to enter the residence looked to his left and saw Mr. Malinowski at the end of the hallway pointing the handgun at him. The agent immediately dropped to the ground and rolled to avoid potential gunfire. The second agent to enter (Agent 2) saw Mr. Malinowski firing downward at Agent 1. At this time, Agent 2 was struck in the foot. As Mr. Malinowski raised his gun toward Agent 2, Agent 2 fired, striking Mr. Malinowski. Immediately after the shooting, officers requested emergency personnel and begin [sic] administering medical aid to Mr. Malinowski.”

    A law enforcement officer is justified in using deadly physical force if the officer reasonably believes that force is necessary to defend himself or another person from the use of deadly force, according to the Arkansas code that Mr. Jones cited.

    “Prior to entering the residence, the officers identified themselves as police by initiating the lights and siren of a patrol vehicle that was parked in front of the residence” and knocking on the front door, he said. Agents also wore clothing marked ATF or Police in large letters.

    According to previous statements from Mr. Malinowski’s wife, the couple was sleeping when the ATF agents knocked.

    “The state’s investigation didn’t attempt to make independent judgments about whether ATF violated the law when they broke down Mr. and Mrs. Malinowski’s front door. But that question should be a matter of grave concern for the rest of us,” Bud Cummins, the Malinowski family’s attorney, told The Epoch Times in a statement.

    He noted that Mr. Jones’s letter shows that armed agents waited “a mere 28 seconds” after knocking and before breaking down the front door of Mr. Malinowski’s home. Mr. Jones said legally, law enforcement must give the person inside a reasonable amount of time to get to the door and to admit them voluntarily before forcibly entering.

    A search warrant, Mr. Cummins said, isn’t automatically a license for a home invasion.

    “How long is it reasonable to wait for someone to answer their front door at 6 a.m. in response to unexplained loud pounding in a 3,000-square-foot fully insulated home? Let’s pray the answer isn’t 28 seconds. The Fourth Amendment means more than that to every single one of us,” he said. “This is not over.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/17/2024 – 19:00

  • China's New Home Prices Plunge The Most Since October 2014
    China’s New Home Prices Plunge The Most Since October 2014

    So much for that Chinese housing “bailout”, which we correctly warned would be woefully insufficient.

    A slew of data published early Monday local time, showed that among various other economic measures, China’s housing slump deepened in May and triggered new calls for the government to pump cash and credit into the economy, while industrial output, which has kept growth on track, fell short of forecasts.

    New home prices – the most important indicator of middle-class wealth in the world’s second biggest economy – dropped at the fastest pace since October 2014, falling 0.7% m/m in May (v/s -0.58% in April) and marking the 11th straight decline despite the government’s stimulus to support the property market. On an annual basis, home prices slumped 4.3%, the biggest drop since the summer of 2015. In fact, the last time home prices plunged so much Beijing pursued a massive yuan devaluation that led to a $1 trillion in fx outflows to stabilize and sparked the very first mega meltup in bitcoin which sent it from $200 to far over $1000.

    Staying on China retail sales rose +3.7% y/y in May, exceeding market expectations for a +3.0% gain and increasing pace from a +2.3% increase in the previous month but Chinese shoppers remain far from recovering their pre-pandemic mojo. However, other economic metrics failed to surpass market forecasts with industrial output growing +5.6% y/y in May (v/s +6.2% expected), down from an increase of +6.7% in April and missing the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey.

    Meanwhile, the nation’s real estate crisis continued to weigh on investment in fixed assets with the overall YTD investment figures expanding +4.0%, also below estimates of +4.2% gain.

    “The most disappointing in May’s data is probably that property sales barely saw any improvements even after so many supportive measures,” said Jacqueline Rong, chief China economist at BNP Paribas SA. She said China’s authorities need to find ways to lower the rates on existing mortgages, closing the gap with the cost of new ones.

    The numbers – excluding the dire real estate prints – add up to a still-weak recovery most economists said, and will likely require more action from Beijing to bolster consumer demand and tackle imbalances, if this year’s 5% growth target is to be met. That could take the form of stepped-up government spending and heightened efforts by the central bank to put a floor under housing markets and get credit flowing.

    On the other hand, if one includes China’s collapsing property market – which once upon a time was the world’s largest asset class – it becomes clear that while Beijing may pretend it does not need a huge fiscal and monetary stimulus, it’s

    Late last month, China unveiled a broad rescue package to prop up housing sales as a credit crisis was engulfing some of the country’s biggest real estate developers. It relaxed mortgage rules and encouraged local governments to buy unsold homes. However, as we warned and many others agreed, the financial incentives aren’t big enough and trial programs in several cities have shown progress can be slow.

    Subdued demand at home and the deteriorating foreign-trade environment are weighing on business confidence, discouraging companies from investing and driving some to move production overseas. Credit growth has been lackluster and the M1 money supply gauge contracted in May at the fastest rate in data going back to 1996.

    Elsewhere, the PBOC on Monday kept a key interest rate unchanged for the tenth straight month. Economists say the bank’s room to cut rates is constrained by the need to prop up the yuan, which faces downward pressure as the US Federal Reserve reinforces its high-for-longer message.

    China’s growth remains “highly uneven, with exports and new energy-related capex as the drivers while consumption and property as the drags,” according to economists including Larry Hu at Macquarie Capital Ltd. Still, the slowdown isn’t severe enough to threaten the growth target and while policymakers may take some limited action “the urgency for a major stimulus is low,” they wrote

    In a survey of more than 400 top executives conducted by UBS Group AG over roughly a month through mid-May, firms reported weaker prospects for orders, revenue and margins compared with the same period of 2023. There was a drop in the share of respondents who plan to increase capital expenditure in the second half of this year.

    “We still need to see new stimulus coming in,” said Helen Qiao, chief Greater China economist at Bank of America Global Research, in a Bloomberg TV interview. “Otherwise the growth momentum could very much weaken.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/17/2024 – 18:40

  • Former CDC Director Predicts Bird Flu Virus Will Cause Next Pandemic
    Former CDC Director Predicts Bird Flu Virus Will Cause Next Pandemic

    Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Dr. Robert Redfield, former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), has issued a grim prediction that the next major pandemic will be caused by the bird flu.

    Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, testifies during a U.S. Senate Appropriations subcommittee hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, on July 2, 2020. (Saul Loeb/Pool/Getty Images)

    “I really do think it’s very likely that we will, at some time—it’s not a question of if, it’s more a question of when—we will have a bird flu pandemic,” Dr. Redfield told NewsNation in an interview published on June 14.

    U.S. officials recently confirmed that the highly pathogenic avian influenza virus had been detected in a cow herd in Wyoming, the 12th state to report an infection.

    The former CDC director said the bird flu, when it enters humans, has a “significant” mortality.

    “Probably somewhere between 25 and 50 percent mortality, so it’s going to be quite complicated,” Dr. Redfield said.

    Since around 2019, there’s been a progressive increase in the number of mammal species to which the bird flu virus has spread, with alpacas becoming the latest species to fall sick after coming into contact with the pathogen, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service.

    Dr. Redfield said that as the bird flu has spread to more than two dozen mammals in the United States, the virus has been adapting and learning how to change its use of receptors, with the risk of making a jump to humans growing by the day.

    “So it’s going through a lot of changes. And as it picks up some of these new receptors, it can get closer and closer to humans,” he said.

    “Once the virus gains the ability to attach to the human receptor, and then go human to human, that’s when you’re going to have the pandemic. And as I said, I think it’s just a matter of time.”

    While Dr. Redfield said it’s impossible to predict with accuracy when the bird flu might start going human to human, he said the recent development of dairy cattle contracting the virus is alarming because cows are often in close proximity to pigs, and pigs have tended to be the last stepping stone for viruses before the jump to humans.

    Dr. Redfield added that the natural evolution of the virus to where it becomes highly infectious to humans is less of a concern to him than the possibility that it will increase its virulence under lab conditions—through gain-of-function research.

    The “recipe” for making bird flu highly infectious to humans is already well established, Dr. Redfield said, recalling that gain-of-function research on the avian influenza virus was carried out in 2012, against his recommendations.

    Since late March, the highly pathogenic avian influenza virus has been reported in more than 80 dairy herds across the country. So far, three human infections have been reported in the United States—two in Michigan and one in Texas, all dairy farm workers.

    The CDC said in a June 12 bird flu update that it’s monitoring the situation closely and the current risk to public health remains low.

    “H5N1 bird flu is widespread in wild birds worldwide and is causing outbreaks in poultry and U.S. dairy cows, with one recent human case in a U.S. dairy worker,” the agency said.

    “While the current public health risk is low, CDC is watching the situation carefully and working with states to monitor people with animal exposures. CDC is using its flu surveillance systems to monitor for H5N1 activity in people.”

    Bird Flu Gain-of-Function Research?

    Dr. Redfield has in the past warned about the dangers of gain-of-function research, which involves altering the properties of a pathogen, such as its virulence, in order to study its potential effects on human health.

    Proponents of such research argue it can help scientists better learn how the virus behaves and spreads, and come up with counter-measures more effectively. Opponents say the potential benefits are outweighed by the risks that such research poses as it can makes viruses more lethal to humans.

    During a March 8, 2023, session of the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic, Dr. Redfield called for a moratorium on this type of research, while expressing the view that the COVID-19 pandemic was caused by an accidental leak from a China-based lab where the virus was being subjected to experiments.

    “While many believe that gain-of function research is critical to get ahead of viruses by developing vaccines, in this case, I believe it had the exact opposite result, unleashing a new virus on the world without any means of stopping it and resulting in the deaths of millions of people,” Dr. Redfield said at the time, referring to COVID-19.

    “Because of this, it is my opinion that we should call for a moratorium on all gain-of function research until we can have a broader debate and come to a consensus as a community about the value of gain-of-function research.”

    Dr. Redfield has also said that taxpayers ended up unknowingly funding risky gain-of-function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, the China-based lab at the center of the lab-leak origin theory of the virus that causes COVID-19.

    Meanwhile, the Food and Drug Administration is preparing for a

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/17/2024 – 18:20

  • LA Studying Removing Police From Traffic Enforcement
    LA Studying Removing Police From Traffic Enforcement

    In another step toward complete and total lawlessness on the West Coast, Los Angeles is reportedly studying the idea of removing police from traffic enforcement altogether as a way to reform policing. 

    A new report from the LA Times says that this week, the City Council approved a study aimed at determining how to implement additional speed bumps, roundabouts, and other modifications to streets to curb speeding and improve driving safety.

    This would come in the place of traffic enforcement by officers after reform advocates argued for “the city to limit how often police pull people over for low-level offenses and to start imagining a future in which unarmed city workers would take over most traffic duties”. 

    Councilmember Marqueece Harris-Dawson commented: “I think the city of Los Angeles can lead the nation.” 

    In what, is the real question. 

    In a unanimous 13-0 decision, the council ordered city transport staff to deliver feasibility studies within 90 days on proposals such as setting up unarmed civilian teams for specific traffic issues and accident investigations, reducing fines in less affluent areas, and halting stops for minor violations like expired tags, according to the LA Times report. 

    Advocates from the Push L.A. coalition expressed cautious optimism about the vote, acknowledging it as a significant step but remaining concerned about potential bureaucratic obstacles.

    Before the council meeting, dozens of organizers rallied outside City Hall, displaying signs and chanting slogans like “The People united, will never be defeated.”

    Activist Leslie Johnson from Community Coalition pledged to maintain pressure on officials to prevent the study’s findings from being ignored. The rally in downtown L.A. served both as a celebration of anticipated success and a reminder to the council of their vigilance.

    Speakers referenced individuals like Keenan Anderson who died during traffic incidents involving police, and shared personal stories about the traumatic impact of traffic stops.

    Interim chief Dominic Choi said: “Our job is public safety, and we’re going to use the tools that are given to us in the best way we can to improve public safety. So if restrictions are put on us, I’m going to visit roll calls, and I’ll talk about this policy change or this law and encourage our officers.”

    Chauncee Smith of advocacy group Catalyst California commented: “From our perspective, having another feasibility study is not necessary; there’s numerous cities around the country that have already adopted a variety of these reforms. We’re focusing on changing the conditions, as opposed to punishing a person for something that they did or did not do.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/17/2024 – 18:00

  • VDH: How Left-Wing Conspiracies Work
    VDH: How Left-Wing Conspiracies Work

    Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

    Since 2016, there has been a clear pattern to left-wing conspiracies – beyond the obvious fact that they traffic in lies, stereotypes, and paranoia to serve precise political agendas.

    We now know that the conspiracy to cook up the Russian-collusion hoax – Donald Trump allegedly conniving with Vladimir Putin to rig the 2016 vote – was perpetrated by the Hillary Clinton campaign. Its funding was hidden by the Democratic National Committee, the law firm Perkins Coie, and Fusion GPS.

    The Russian “disinformation” laptop hoax – the notion that the same Russians four years later created a fake Hunter Biden laptop to smear the Biden family on the eve of the first 2020 debate – was jumpstarted by the Biden campaign’s then-chief foreign policy advisor, current Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

    There was never much evidence that a wayward bat or pangolin in a meat market birthed the COVID-19 pandemic, despite the efforts of China, Western and international health officials, and Dr. Fauci’s health bureaucrats to spread that lie.

    The January 6th riot was certainly wrong and buffoonish. But the idea that it was an insurrection aiming to violently overthrow the U.S. government was also a left-wing myth fueled by the Democratic House leadership and the media.

    All these schemes have their commonalities:

    1) They are aimed at achieving political objectives.

    False claims of Russian collusion likely drained millions of votes from the 2016 Trump candidacy.

    A later conservative poll found that Russian disinformation may have swung enough voters to ensure a 2020 Trump loss. It certainly saved Joe Biden in the first debate when he faced the American people and flat-out lied about the laptop, quoting “experts” that his own team had rounded up to legitimize his obvious untruths.

    The last thing the global health community wanted was to confront China about its culpability for killing millions worldwide. And what the Fauci health conglomerate most feared was the airing of the truth that U.S. “scientists” had helped fund and enhance quite-dangerous, understandably-outlawed, viral gain-of-function research at a Chinese lab soon to be run by the People’s Liberation Army. These functionaries’ clear hatred of President Trump was a subtext to their distortions and lies that only a complete shut-down of the U.S. economy could save America from millions of unnecessary deaths. In other words, for well over two years, anyone who dared suggest a laboratory origin for COVID was pilloried, while the accusers privately knew that it was likely true and that they were complicit.

    The January 6th myth—that conservatives were violent insurrectionaries—led to the greatest militarization of Washington, DC, since the Civil War. Barbed wire and fencing around all the major tourist spots helped advance the myth of a besieged nation that Joe Biden, that old moderate, would heal from the existential threats birthed by the soon-to-be-impeached-twice Donald Trump.

    2) These conspiracies involved the most powerful U.S. government agencies.

    James Comey’s FBI altered a FISA warrant. Comey himself misled the president of the United States, lying that the latter was not the target of an FBI investigation while leaking confidential, if not classified, documents. The FBI hired foreign national Christopher Steele to compile dirt on a presidential candidate. The FBI’s Peter Strzok, Lisa Page, Andrew McCabe, and James Baker were knee-deep in efforts to leak the dossier and other disinformation to ensure Trump was not elected. The CIA’s John Brennan and the Department of Justice’s Loretta Lynch were well aware of their own agencies’ involvement in fueling the slander.

    Fifty-one former “intelligence authorities” brazenly lied in 2020 when they signed a letter claiming that the Biden laptop—then in the possession of the FBI, which knew of its authenticity—had all the hallmarks of Russian disinformation. Grandee signatories like James Clapper, John Brennan, Michael Hayden, and Leon Panetta had no evidence that the laptop had anything to do with the Russians. Lots of contacts in the FBI confirmed that it did not. Yet they signed their names and, in doing so, ruined their former agencies’ credibility, all for the short-term agenda of getting Joe Biden elected.

    From 2020 to 2023, at the height of the pandemic, the main players in the U.S. health apparat—the NIH, the CDC, and the NIAID—all created narratives that were obvious lies, or at least had no evidence to sustain them. There was never clear-cut evidence for the bat/pangolin theory of COVID genesis, for state-imposed mass masking and social distancing as scientifically-proven effective tools to control the pandemic, for the assurance that a national quarantine would do far less damage than the virus, and for the idea that experimental mRNA coronavirus vaccinations and their serial boosters in the long term would prevent the vaccinated from being either infected or infectious.

    The reaction to the January 6th riot was likely politicized by the Speaker of the House, the Pentagon and the Capitol Police on the theory that the small number of violent rioters, if left to run amok and then severely punished after show trials in federal courts, would do lasting damage to the conservative cause and Donald Trump in particular.

    3) The media conspired with government agencies to spread the hoaxes.

    On the eve of the 2016 election and in its aftermath, Buzzfeed, CNN, the Washington Post and other news outlets all rushed to leak the most salacious made-up smears from the Steele dossier, fed to them by the FBI and other government officials. Their unsourced yellow journalism soon ensured the ill-fated Mueller investigation that was designed, quite successfully, to derail or slow the early Trump administration agenda.

    In 2020, top members of the FBI partnered with social media companies, especially Twitter and Facebook, to censor news that contradicted the yarn that the Biden laptop was Russian disinformation.

    While Anthony Fauci and his team, along with officials at the CDC and NIH, were furiously corresponding to tamp down any suggestion of a lab-leak origin for COVID or that their own policies were scientifically unproven, the media was fed their heroic stories and spread them as gospel.

    As a result, the nation was assured that Fauci et al. stood for “science,” and their skeptics were little more than ultra-MAGA, Trumpist yahoos. The old time-tested, safe, and life-saving Ivermectin, well aside from the debate over its actual efficacy in treating COVID, was rendered a dangerous “horse dewormer,” while the mRNA vaccines were deemed perfectly safe for young, healthy men, despite being in little danger from COVID but susceptible to vaccination-caused myocarditis.

    So effective were our bureaucrats in using the media in their propaganda that ancient canons of medical science—viruses can indeed provide valuable natural immunity; vaccines are of only temporary efficacy against the quickly-mutating coronaviruses; complete nationwide quarantines would lead to untenable social, economic, and political damage; viral pandemics are unlikely to be of direct animal origin if the virus has never been observed in an animal prior to human infections, etc.—were often mocked as self-interested pseudoscience.

    The media ensured that reports of numerous FBI informants present on January 6 were suppressed. They also smothered evidence that the loaded January 6th congressional committee was manipulating evidence, suppressing testimonies, and deliberately not interviewing inconvenient witnesses.

    Instead, the media ran with wild lies of violent and often-armed “insurrectionists” who had long planned a systematic takeover and who had succeeded in killing “five law enforcement officers” (only one, Brian Sicknick, died—a day later on January 7, from natural causes). The media smeared the name and reputation of the unarmed Ashli Babbitt, killed while going through a broken window into the Capitol, and then hid the name of the Capitol Police officer who had lethally shot her.

    4) Few, if any, in the media or the government were ever punished for their conspiracies to create and spread such complete fabrications.

    Few at CNN who spread the Russian collusion lie were ever permanently punished. No Pulitzer Prizes for such false coverage were revoked. James Comey (claiming amnesia 245 times while under congressional oath), James Clapper (previously lying under congressional oath), John Brennan (previously lying twice while under congressional oath), and Andrew McCabe (lying repeatedly to federal investigators) were never formally charged—unlike those who went to jail after falsely being indicted for collusion. All instead used their liberal notoriety to land lucrative network consultantships or book deals—and to persist in the Russian collusion hoax.

    None of the 51 intelligence authorities who lied to the nation and thereby helped warp an election have ever retracted their statements, much less apologized. All knew then, and are currently without a doubt after the conviction of Hunter Biden, that his laptop and contents were not just authentic but proven to be so by the FBI. Barring apologies, the assumption remains that they believe their misinformation and disinformation led to the election of Joe Biden and, thus, that their noble ends were properly justified by any means necessary.

    Dr. Francis Collins, Dr. Fauci and his lieutenants, Peter Daszak and a string of others have never been formally disciplined for their efforts to spread misinformation that likely contributed to tens of thousands of deaths from the unwarranted national lockdowns. Even to this day, Dr. Fauci insists U.S. funding for Wuhan had nothing to do with gain-of-function research and still does not concede that it is almost certain that the virus originated in the lab.

    *  *  *

    From the above, we can assume that conspiracies successfully achieve left-wing goals.

    The hoaxes are used by bureaucracies against conservatives and Republican candidates. They are spread like wildfire by a corrupt media and, when exposed and refuted, rarely lead to legal culpability or disgrace rather than publicity-driven lucrative post-scandal employment.

    One chief common trait is projection. By accusing others of high crimes and misdemeanors, the conspirators become exempt from criminal charges.

    Hillary Clinton and her campaign were never charged with illegally hiring a foreign national to draw on Russian sources to smear their 2016 campaign opponent.

    The Biden campaign was never held accountable for conspiring to organize so-called retired intelligence experts to formally lie to the American people to influence an election.

    High officials of the U.S. government lied under oath with impunity about their role in funding gain-of-function research after conspiring to circumvent U.S. law prohibiting such research.

    U.S. elected and bureaucratic officials deliberately suppressed the use of law enforcement on January 6 despite the ensuing lax security, warped a U.S. House committee investigation, and used the Washington D.C. court system to convict hundreds for dubious crimes in order to use their convictions and prison terms for political agendas.

    No wonder, then, that we should expect some sort of similar hoax to arise before the 2024 election. Do not be surprised when told of a “secret” Trump plan uncovered to round up critics in 2025 and send them to “camps,” or lurid revelations about “evidence” that Trump is in worse physical and mental shape than is a debilitated Biden, or some fantastic MAGA plot to implement “voter suppression,” or allegations that the Trump campaign’s “dark money” involves “collusion,” “disinformation,” and “sinister foreign actors.”

    When we hear such things in the months to come, remember that these mythologies are usually a warning: what the left is alleging is, quite often, precisely what the left is already doing.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/17/2024 – 17:40

  • US Has Reportedly 'Ramped Up' Intel-Sharing With Israel, Alarming Democrat Lawmakers 
    US Has Reportedly ‘Ramped Up’ Intel-Sharing With Israel, Alarming Democrat Lawmakers 

    Washington has significantly ramped up its intelligence-sharing with Israel, despite recent attempts by the Biden administration to distance itself from large-scale civilian casualties mounting from the Rafah ground offensive as well as airstrikes across the Gaza Strip.

    The Washington Post has documented the Pentagon is now handing an “extraordinary amount” of intelligence to Tel Aviv, including “drone footage, satellite imagery, communications intercepts and data analysis using advanced software, some of it powered by artificial intelligence.”

    DIA monitoring center, via Wiki Commons

    Much of this is said to be focused on hostage-location efforts, given also that among the Oct.7 captives there were eight Americans, but three are since believed deceased.

    “If we managed to unilaterally get information that we could act on, and we thought we could actually get US people out alive, we could act,” a US official told the Post, adding “there was genuinely very little information specifically about US hostages.”

    The report confirmed the presence of the US military’s elite Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) at a CIA station in Israel, as well as personnel from the Defense Intelligence Agency. These US intel officials have been meeting with their counterparts in the country “on a daily basis”. The State Department has also has a special envoy on the ground, while the FBI has also assisted ongoing investigations related to Oct.7.

    WaPo also revealed that earlier in the war the US had intricate plans for a potential hostage operation to retrieve the remaining American captives (dual nationals) held by Hamas. That operation, which would have been extraordinarily high-risk both militarily as well as politically for the Biden administration, was shelved.

    All of this increased intel-sharing has worried some lawmakers, who don’t want the United States to be seen as too hand in glove with Israeli operations in Gaza. The Post wrote:

    Other officials, including lawmakers on Capitol Hill, worry that intelligence the United States provides could be making its way into the repositories of data that Israeli military forces use to conduct airstrikes or other military operations, and that Washington has no effective means of monitoring how Israel uses the U.S. information.

    Meanwhile there is this surprisingly blunt assessment from Politico concerning how the crisis impacts Biden’s political future in the White House…

    “Diplomats and world leaders – many of whom are gathering for the G7 summit here this week – have begun to worry that Biden’s reluctance to more fully break with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could cost him the election in November,” Politico writes.

    Jeremy Shapiro, a former Obama State Department official who commented on recent conversations with European diplomats, explained to the outlet that “The level of concern is something between panic and terror.” He added: “The alliance is too important for these countries right now.”

    As for growing nervousness among US lawmakers over the intel-sharing relationship at a time Israel is being increasingly seen as a ‘pariah’ among many countries abroad, AntiWar.com notes that—

    Rep. Jason Crow, a Colorado Democrat and a member of the House Intelligence Committee, has been critical of the lack of supervision on intelligence-sharing with Israel. Calling for more “robust oversight,” he recently co-sponsored a bill that would require top officials to notify lawmakers if US intel was used for an operation that resulted in civilian deaths. The legislation is still making its way through the House.

    A trickle of Biden admin ‘protest resignations’ have meanwhile continued…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    While the Biden administration has publicly pushed back and fought against things like the recent anti-Israeli actions of the International Criminal Court (ICC), including arrest warrants issued for Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, it has faced some degree of revolt from within – including a spate of protest resignations in the State Department and other agencies like USAID.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/17/2024 – 17:20

  • Sense And Nonsense On Petrodollars
    Sense And Nonsense On Petrodollars

    Authored by Peter Earle via The American Institute for Economic Research,

    Last week several reports suggested the termination of a US-Saudi petrodollar agreement, and speculated a Saudi Arabian move to sell oil on world markets in various currencies, including the Chinese yuan.

    The accounts were rife with inaccuracies: the Saudis’ have transacted in non-dollar currencies for decades, and there has never been a formal treaty, much less with a specified expiration date, governing the loose arrangement that has come to be called the ‘petrodollar system.’

    But even the fragments of broken mirrors reflect reality, and despite their fundamental errors a significant trend is in evidence: Saudi Arabia is progressively reducing its dependence on the United States. Quite possibly reflective of its recent admittance to the expanded BRICS block it is exhibiting a greater inclination to settle oil transactions in currencies other than the US dollar. Owing to the US and Western Europe’s increasingly entangled alliances, and its own efforts to diversify away from dependence upon energy exports, Saudi Arabia has been increasing its diplomatic and economic engagements with China, Iran, Russia, nations considered primary US foreign policy adversaries. Recent moves toward accepting non-dollar currencies reflects broader geopolitical shifts away from US currency hegemony.

    The concept of the petrodollar, established in the 1970s, was an informal arrangement where Saudi Arabia agreed to sell oil exclusively in US dollars in exchange for US military protection and investment in US Treasury securities. In the immediate wake of the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, the arrangement bolstered the value of the US dollar and secured US military support for Saudi Arabia. It also ensured relatively consistent demand for US government debt, a windfall which five decades later has become a millstone of damning heft. 

    A handful of policy changes indicate departures from the heretofore entrenched framework.

    In January 2023, the Saudi finance minister announced the possibility of conducting trade in a broadening variety of currencies. This was followed by increasing oil imports from Russia and establishing a formal, fixed currency swap agreement with China. Best characterized as strategic realignments, Saudi Arabia has sought to forge flexible relationships with regional and rising global powers outside the sphere of American influence.

    Myths and hyperbole aside, the weakening US-Saudi relationship is one instance amid a growing trend of diminishing US influence in global currency markets and international finance. It is a shift reflective of the weaponization of the dollar in early 2022 and a growing array of domestic policy choices which are rapidly destroying the dollar’s attractiveness. Certainly, and as has been said many times: these effects of these changes will not be seen or felt overnight.

    But developments emerging with increasing rapidity evince an ongoing decline in control, and reduced role, in over global financial and geopolitical matters.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/17/2024 – 17:00

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Jun 17

Today’s News 17th June 2024

  • "Don't Buy Into This Crap", Catherine Austin Fitts Warns "AI Is Digital Control"
    “Don’t Buy Into This Crap”, Catherine Austin Fitts Warns “AI Is Digital Control”

    Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

    Catherine Austin Fitts (CAF), Publisher of The Solari Report, financial expert and former Assistant Secretary of Housing (Bush 41 Admin.) is sounding the alarm about Artificial Intelligence (AI) and how it will impact your world in very negative ways. 

    It’s all in a new report called “The AI Revolution: The Final Coup d’Etat.”  CAF explains, “This is a very serious look at Artificial Intelligence and how it’s going to be used to implement control…”

    “This past week, there was this huge open board meeting at OpenAI.  There were board members put there to make sure OpenAI and its products were in alignment with the best interests of the human race.  Some of them got booted out. Now, we see the former head of the NSA (National Security Agency) get put on the board. 

    I just realized it today, and I had not realized it before. 

    Edward Snowden just tweeted out and said you should never use any of these products, which include ChatGPT.  Snowden also said, ‘You have to understand where this is going.  You have been warned.’

    “The AI Revolution” also warns that:

    AI “. . . will alter the prospects for a free society, even free will. . . and . . . attempt to seed the idea human-only decision-making will become a rarity and, in time, cease to exist.”

    Don’t think sophisticated AI is some idea that is far into the future.  AI is here now, and CAF points out:

    “I just see more and more companies using this type of technology to institute financial fraud and make money from financial fraud in their pricing. . . . You also have thousands of companies to track you for their benefit…

    It is trying to extract data from you to accomplish whatever its goal is. . . . It’s like a swarm of invisible locusts that are all trying to surveil and track, and none of them are trying to optimize your life and give you a free and inspired life. 

    They are just trying to get their piece.”

    AI will also be used to ignore and break all laws.  After all, it’s robotic and can’t be held accountable.  CAF says,

    “By removing moral obligations and legal and obedient respect for laws, the speed at which you can do evil is extraordinary…

    One of my concerns, and I have said this for many years, I think this kind of technology allows interdimensional intelligence to act as material reality so that, literally, demonic intelligence can have far more influence and impact in our world.  

    It operates at such high speed, and then you combine that with the payment systems in the financial system. . . the things that can go wrong are phenomenal.  One of the main problems that we have seen in the past year is artificial intelligence takes off on its own, and it starts functioning in a way it makes no sense. . . . and it’s just lying.  It’s just making stuff up and lying.  

    It’s literally like it’s under demonic possession.”

    CAF says, no matter what, “AI can’t beat God.”  

    And instead of worshiping Jehovah and Jesus (like you should), the creators of AI want you to trust whatever this tech tells you to do.  CAF says, “They want an AI Religion Revolution.” 

    Don’t buy into this crap because AI is a disaster for humanity and your freedom.

    CAF thinks the Democrats will be forced to replace Joe Biden come November, and she explains why. 

    Now, more than ever, CAF thinks physical gold and silver are good investments.  She encourages people to expand the use of cash.  CAF thinks two of the best weapons against this sort of artificial intelligence used for control and tyranny is to enforce the US Constitution and, above all, do not lose your faith in God the Father and Christ Jesus.

    There is much more in the 61-minute riveting in-depth interview.

    Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with the Publisher of The Solari Report, Catherine Austin Fitts, for 6.15.24.

    *  *  *

    To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here

    There is a lot of free information on Solari.com. You can get way more cutting-edge analysis from Catherine Austin Fitts and “The Solari Report” by taking advantage of the “special offer” featuring the “The AI Revolution.”  You can click here, or call 1-731-764-2515 and talk to a real human.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/16/2024 – 23:20

  • The Changing Nature Of Nuclear Deterrence
    The Changing Nature Of Nuclear Deterrence

    Submitted by Tuomas Malinen of GnS Economics

    Issues discussed:

    • Tactical vs. strategical nuclear weapons.
    • Mutually asserted destruction (MAD) as the foundation of nuclear deterrence.
    • The shaky foundations of modern nuclear deterrence, and growing risk of a tactical nuclear strike.

    When I was around eight years old, my baby-sitter let me watch a documentary on nuclear war. Unsurprisingly, it shook me to the core. It’s kind of hard to know what went on in her head, but those images of nuclear detonations never left my head. Looking back at it now, this ‘incident’ starts to make sense, kind of. This is because over the decades I’ve read a lot on nuclear deterrence and on nuclear war simulations. I have had this graving to understand nuclear warfare and deterrence basically throughout my adult-life.

    Cuban Missile Crisis in October 1962 became something of a case study on nuclear deterrence to me. This was in no small part because of the magnificent movie, Thirteen Days (published in 2000), documenting the crisis through the eyes of President Kennedy and the White House. I have also had the privilege to grow with a highly objective lecturer of history, my mother, who has always questioned the current knowledge on history. One of her best quotes is, “According to how history is currently written”. It summarizes all you need to understand about research of history. We simply do not know all the facts and politics plays a major role on how history is being written.

    In the movie Thirteen Days, there’s a scene where Bobby Kennedy (played memorably by Steven Culp) and Special Advisor Kenneth O. Donnell (always great Kevin Costner) arrive to Russian (Soviet) embassy, where they are burning secret documents in preparation for an evacuation. I vaguely remember that I would have talked with my mom about this scene and that she would have confirmed that such a thing (burning of documents) actually happened, but I cannot vouch for that. In any case, it was a beautiful movie trick, intensifying and underlining the gravity of the situation the world faced. Unfortunately, we are very close of such a situation, again.

    During the Cuban crisis, the ‘Doomsday Clock’, kept by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, was set to seven minutes to midnight. Currently, it stands at 90 seconds to midnight, closest to midnight it ever has, and I am expecting that it will be moved to 60 seconds to midnight during the next 12 months. While the Bulletin, quite unnecessarily, recently mixed “climate change” to the setting of the clock, the unprecedented warning on the close proximity of a nuclear holocaust should be taken extremely seriously.

    I have been pondering the growing nuclear threat since basically the onset of Ukrainian conflict in early 2014. It has become very pervasive in my thinking during the past few weeks mostly due to strikes of Ukraine to Russian early-warning system.

    During my academic studies, I have taken two courses in game theory. One during graduate and the other during post-graduate studies. During those courses, I read also on game theoretical simulations of nuclear warfare. I cannot help to think that I did this, because of the misjudgement of my baby-sitter all those years ago. Past week, I started to build game theoretical model on a tactical nuclear first strike to understand the situation better.

    In this entry, which is likely to start a short series on nuclear deterrence and war, I go through the basic building blocks of modern nuclear deterrence starting from tactical nuclear weapons. Then I explain the foundational principle of nuclear deterrence, mutually asserted destruction, or MAD, and lastly I go through the weak spots of modern nuclear deterrence. All detailed information on nuclear weapons and deterrence is based on recent research by several scholars, only few of which I will detail (link) here. My model describes in more detail, why deterrence is so close of failing, and I return to that later. In the conclusions I also comment the recent steps of escalation, i.e., the Russian flotilla just off the Floridan coast and fresh U.S. sanctions to Russian financial sector.

    Tactical nuclear weapons

    I have to start with a notion that there actually is no universally accepted definition for a ‘tactical nuclear weapon’. Some scholars of nuclear deterrence, and some military leaders, even argue that such distinction makes no sense. For example, both “strategical” and “tactical” nuclear weapons can have either a low or a high yield, measured in kilo- and megatons. Low yield nuclear devices are generally thought to produce an explosion between one to 10 kilotons, while high yield nuclear weapons, and especially so called hydrogen bombs, yield an explosive power of dozens of megatons.1 To note, the biggest ever created nuclear explosion occurred on 30 October, 1961, when the Soviet Union tested ‘Tsar Bomba’ yielding an explosive power of 50-58 megatons (difference between U.S. and Russian measurements). Reportedly, the test implied a new construction of a hydrogen bomb able to produce “practically unlimited power”.

    The arms control definition has been to disentangle weapons according to their range, where strategic nuclear weapons have intercontinental range, while tactical have short- to medium-range. This is questionable, because some nuclear powers do not even have intercontinental-range weapons, but it would be hard to argue that they would not be able to conduct “strategical” nuclear strikes. Moreover, strategical nuclear weapons can be used in a tactical manner, i.e., strikes to military or critical infrastructure targets. Thus, the distinction between strategical and tactical nuclear weapons, and strikes, is fuzzy, to say the least.

    In the model I am building, I classify tactical nuclear weapons as short- to medium-range nuclear weapons with relatively low yield used for surgical strikes to military installations or critical infrastructure. I classify strategical nuclear weapons having an intercontinental range with a high yield used to inflict wide-spread damage to military and civilian infrastructure. I think this is a proper description of the weapons based on their strategical capabilities, for modelling purposes at least.

    Mutually asserted destruction, MAD

    If we assume the worst-case view to nuclear warfare, we have been on a road towards a nuclear conflict since the U.S. conducted her first nuclear bomb test, the Trinity test, on July 16, 1945. Just two months later, the world witnessed first nuclear strikes with the U.S. dropping nukes on cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki on 6 and 9 August. These strikes effectively ended the Second World War, but started the nuclear armament race.

    Right after the first nuclear strikes, nuclear weapons were seen, by the military planners, only as a new means of warfare, but with unprecedented destructive power. For example, General MacArthur advocated for using nuclear weapons, in tactical capacity, in the Korean conflict fought between 1950-1953. President Truman fortunately refrained from this, but the idea was floated. The idea of nuclear deterrence started to develop only after the Soviet Union created her own nuclear weapons, with the first Soviet nuclear bomb test conducted on August 29, 1949. Yet, only the arrival of intercontinental bombers and intercontinental ballistic missiles, or ICBMs, led to the creation of the concept and policies of nuclear deterrence, by removing distance as a factor shielding from a nuclear attack.

    The grounding idea of MAD, and thus nuclear deterrence, has rested on the assumption that using nuclear weapons in a conflict against a nuclear power would automatically lead to a nuclear war and thus mutual destruction in a nuclear holocaust. However, developments in nuclear weapons and their interception capabilities has changed the terms and possibility of nuclear conflicts, and thus nuclear deterrence.

    The shaky foundations of modern nuclear deterrence

    Some scholars argue that nuclear deterrence is a moot point, because no weapon system is created for deterrence.2 I would argue that recent developments imply that nuclear deterrence plays a definite role still. This is one conclusion that can be drawn from the response to recent drills of the Russian fleet, including a nuclear submarine, in the Atlantic reportedly at times just some 25 miles off the Floridan coast. It also looks that the two strikes to Russian early-warning system have yielded a strong back-room response to Ukrainian leadership from the Biden administration. When the U.S. administration is publicly “concerned”, it usually implies that behind closed doors, there has been hell to pay (see also this). In any case, this is good news. We at GnS Economics have not yet lifted the warning of a nuclear strike in Europe, but I would argue that it’s likelihood has diminished, for now at least.

    When we look at general developments, a worrying picture starts to emerge. Even Hellan Larsen has published an interesting study entitled: Deliberate nuclear first use in an era of asymmetry: A game theoretical approach. Asymmetry, between two or more nuclear powers, in Larsen’s study arises from two factors:

    1. Asymmetry in damage limitation and secure-second-strike capability, and
    2. Asymmetry in conventional warfare.

    The former implies imbalances in the capacity of nuclear forces to counter nuclear strikes, essentially to repel strategic bombers and ICBM’s, and in the capacity to deliver a secondary strike after the first strike by the enemy. The latter implies inferiority in non-nuclear forces with the prospect of sustaining catastrophic losses in a conventional warfare. In this case, the weaker party uses nuclear weapon as a coercion tool. In the former, the stonger party may see it “rational” to issue a deliberate nuclear first use (DFNU), in certain conditions, because it assumes it can repel most of the secondary strike of the weaker party. In the latter, the weaker party launches a nuclear strike to compensate her weakness in the battleground (with her troops in a possible risk of being over-run). Currently, there are clear asymmetry in tactical nuclear weapons between the two leading nuclear powers: the U.S. and Russia.

    Previously, there was symmetry. In the late 1980s the U.S. held approximately 9000 tactical nuclear weapons, while the Soviet Union (Russia) was estimated to have held anything between 13000 and 22000 tactical nuclear weapons. In 2019, these numbers were around 230 for the U.S. and some 2000 for Russia. Moreover, the capacity of remaining arsenal differs greatly. Russia has developed and modernized a wide variety of platforms capable of launching both conventional and nuclear warheads. Russia has bombers, missiles in ships, subs, aicrafts and helicopters, hypersonic missiles and possibly even artillery capable of delivering tactical nuclear strikes. The U.S. has mostly just aircrafts and guided bombs to do the same. France and Britain have all but eliminated their arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons. So, between NATO and Russia, the symmetry in tactical nuclear weapons has turned into a clear asymmetry to the benefit of Russia.

    It has been a long-standing concern of Russia whether her nuclear forces would be able to survive from an (strategical) U.S. first strike in sufficient quantaties to deliver a “deep second strike” due to the counterforce capabilities and missile defenses of the U.S. It has even been simulated that if the U.S. would launch an all-out nuclear first strike during a peace time, it could achieve a pyrrhic victory with Russian second strike capabilities seriously hampered. In a crisis, the likelihood of a succesful U.S. first strike would diminish, because of the grown readiness of Russian nuclear forces. As a response to all this, Russia has been pouring money into developing hypersonic missiles and missile defense systems.

    The collapse of Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in February 2019, has created a new threat to Russia, because it creates the possibility to place short- to medium-range nuclear missiles to Europe. Their short fly-time effectively dismantles the nuclear deterrence policy of Russia, which is based on the concept of launch-on-warning, which relies on the missile early-warning system, i.e., the very system Ukraine struck late-May. The system is aimed at providing a warning to Russian leadership of an ICBM launch anywhere in the world, towards Russia, after which Russia would launch a counter-strike (or a second-strike) even before missiles of the first-strike would have struck to Russia and her allies.

    Questions have been raised is the U.S. missile defense system effective against hypersonic missiles. Reports, e.g., from Iranian hypersonic strikes to Israel are conflicting, but we know that at least some hypersonic missiles penetrated the ‘Iron Dome’. This is likely to lead to development of more effective, and more pervasive, missile defense system, a “defense race” of sort, as well as to rapid development of U.S. hypersonic missile capacity. These developments would alter nuclear deterrence, yet again.

    Conclusions

    The problem I see in the Ukrainian conflict is that it’s being waged, by NATO currently, possible to serve the similar aims, like Russia’s Afghanistan campaign in the 1980s. It has been argued that the failed military campaign in the remote Soviet-controlled country, delivered a fatal blow to the Russian economy eventually leading to the collapse of the whole Soviet Union. The difference between Afghanistan and Ukraine is that Afghanistan was like Vietnam, that is, a proxy-war between the U.S. and Russia fought over a strategically relatively unimportant country. Like explained by several notable scholars, including “NATO-hawk” Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski and U.S. professor John Mearsheimer, Ukraine has been a definite red line for Moscow for a long time. This brings us to the cross-hairs of modern nuclear deterrence over her territory.

    As I am writing these lines, the U.S. has issued another round of sanctions, now aimed at the financial sector of Russia. I don’t think that the timing was a coincidence. The Russian ‘floatilla’ practicing off the coast of Florida was a likely trigger. This, like the flotilla, is just another step of escalation.

    The world keeps on moving into two blocks, which is a likely to be the aim, because one needs competing factions to establish deeper escalation. As you notice, I have gone rather deep into the ‘Rabbit Hole’, and I am currently watching these major developments as plays in a global chess game, which are likely to lead us to deeper escalation and towards the scenarios I described in the Horsemen of the Apocalypse. I am simply starting to lack any other models to explain this global madness than a some powerful force pushing us deeper into geopolitical chaos. It’s quite possible that I will end this mini-series on nuclear deterrence on a piece in the Apocalypse Scenario (it would be fitting, I guess).

    What makes the current situation so daunting is that we are breaking most of the established international rules. This ranges from starting a war to breaking of global financial order through sanctions and confiscation of international assets. If we know one thing from history, it’s that when a rule-based order breaks, destructive wars follow.

    What I hope to have established here is a first look on the changing nature of nuclear deterrence and on the risks it entails. Building an understanding through some actual modeling work, even when the model is relative simple, always gives a much wider perspective than simply just reading research. I will keep working with the model, and the academic paper, and I publish updates here on the things I discover. I just hope we (humanity) have the strength to stop this cycle of escalation, before something irreversible happens.

    I end this to some notions for paid subscribers on the effects of new Russian sanctions.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/16/2024 – 22:10

  • Japan Grants Asylum To Just 303 People In 2023 As It Rejected 98% Of Applicants
    Japan Grants Asylum To Just 303 People In 2023 As It Rejected 98% Of Applicants

    Japan granted refugee status to a ‘record’ 303 asylum-seekers in 2023, an increase from the previous record of 202 people set in 2022, the Justice Ministry announced last week.

    Ukrainian refugees arrive at Haneda airport in Tokyo on April 5, 2022 (Reuters)

    Beyond this, two foreign nationals were granted quasi-refugee status for ‘fleeing from countries in conflict,’ while another 1,005 – mostly from Ukraine – were granted permission to reside in Japan on humanitarian grounds, though they do not qualify for refugee status, the Japan Times reports. 

    According to a Tuesday report from the Justice Ministry, there were 13,823 asylum-seekers who applied for refugee status last year, a more than 3x increase from 2022 – though far short of the record set in 2017 of 19,629 applicants. The 303 who were granted refugee status were recognized by the Japanese government as having had to flee their home countries over threats of persecution. 

    As in 2022, the majority of those recognized as being refugees last year — 237 people — were from Afghanistan, where the return of the Taliban regime to power in 2021 has led to continued instability. Refugees from Myanmar and Ethiopia made up the next biggest groups.

    Last year’s applicants for refugee status made up the second-largest number that Japan has ever received in a single year, with those from Sri Lanka (3,778), Turkey (2,406) and Pakistan (1,062) accounting for the largest nationality groups.

    As for the new categories – Japan revised its Immigration Control and Refugee Recognition Law in 2023, introducing a new status of “subsidiary protection” that grants asylum to those fleeing from areas experiencing active, ongoing conflict – even if they do not qualify under Japan’s narrow definition of refugee.

    Since December 1st, 1,110 applications have been made for special status – most of whom (1,101) were from Ukraine. By the end of February, 647 applicants had been granted quasi-refugee status, with 644 of them being Ukrainian.

    If an application is denied in Japan, there is an appeal process that can take several years – on top of the initial application process that takes several months to begin with.

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    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/16/2024 – 21:35

  • Biden Campaign Claims Trump Said He Will "Throw Women With Beautiful Children In Mass Detention Camps"
    Biden Campaign Claims Trump Said He Will “Throw Women With Beautiful Children In Mass Detention Camps”

    Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

    The Biden campaign has used a deceptively edited clip from a speech Donald Trump made Saturday at Turning Point USA’s Detroit conference, claiming that he said he wants to “throw women with beautiful children in mass detention camps.”

    Here is what the Biden campaign posted on X:

    Firstly, he didn’t even say that.

    Secondly, watch the full clip.

    They edited out the beginning where Trump is specifically saying that leftists will twist him saying he’s going to incarcerate “terrorists” before deporting them, and instead claim that he’s doing it to women and children.

    They just proved his point.

    He then went on to describe some of the despicable actions of illegal immigrant gang member murderers.

    The Biden camp doesn’t realise that people are not buying this crap anymore, that Trump is a dictatorial Third Reich loving racist who is going to round people up and put them in camps.

    It’s utterly stupid and betrays how desperate they are.

    *  *  *

    Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/16/2024 – 21:00

  • Swiss Summit Says Ukraine's 'Territorial Integrity' Must Be Basis Of Any Peace
    Swiss Summit Says Ukraine’s ‘Territorial Integrity’ Must Be Basis Of Any Peace

    Sunday’s major Ukraine peace conference in Switzerland, where some 100 countries were represented, has rejected the conditions named by Russia’s Vladimir Putin for immediately ending the war.

    A final document produced by the summit, which 78 of the countries signed off on, asserted that the basis of any future Ukraine-Russia peace deal to end the war must preserve the “territory integrity” of Ukraine.

    Via AFP

    Referencing the UN charter, the document lays out that “respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty … can and will serve as a basis for achieving a comprehensive, just and lasting peace in Ukraine.”

    “We believe that reaching peace requires the involvement of and dialogue between all parties,” it additionally said.

    While the vast majority of countries agreed to the document, the representatives of India, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Thailand and the United Arab Emirates did not sign it, according to The Associated Press.

    European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen addressed the conditions for peace that Putin spelled out at the end of last week, saying:

    “It was not a peace negotiation because Putin is not serious about ending the war. He is insisting on capitulation. He is insisting on ceding Ukrainian territory — even territory that today is not occupied by him,” she said.

    “He is insisting on disarming Ukraine, leaving it vulnerable to future aggression. No country would ever accept these outrageous terms.”

    She was referencing his Friday televised address wherein the Russian leader said, “Ukrainian troops must be completely withdrawn from the Donetsk People’s Republic, the Luhansk People’s Republic, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.” Putin also stipulated a second main condition for ending the war: Ukraine must reject ambitions to join the NATO alliance. 

    “As soon as Kyiv says it is ready to do this and begins really withdrawing troops and officially renounces plans to join NATO, we will immediately — literally that very minute — cease-fire and begin talks,” Putin said in the talk given to a gathering of his foreign ministry officials. But leaders gathered in Switzerland over the weekend, including Italy’s PM Giorgia Meloni, rejected Putin’s overture as but “propaganda”.

    Both Russia and China have suggested that the two-day peace conference being held in Burgenstock is futile without Russia’s presence and participation, and is ultimately but a PR stunt.

    Meanwhile an interesting and awkward moment last week at the G7 summit in Italy…

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    But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hailed the outcome of the summit on Sunday. He said, “We’ll prove to everyone in the world that the UN Charter can be restored to full effectiveness.” He said of countries which have yet to sign on to the final document may still do so as it is ‘open’… “Even countries that are now thinking to join it have consultations ongoing in their respective countries,” Zelensky announced.

    Given that G7 leaders have also this weekend agreed to more long term funding for Ukraine, to the tune of $50 billion and while using some $280 billion in frozen Russian assets to do it, the prospect of legitimate peace negotiations now seem as far away as ever.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/16/2024 – 20:25

  • 20% Of California Lives In Poverty; What's Going On?
    20% Of California Lives In Poverty; What’s Going On?

    Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

    On a cost-adjusted basis, California leads the nation in percentage living in poverty.

    Blame the Progressive oligarchs like Governor Newsom.

    Unemployment rates from the BLS through April. State level data lags by one month. Chart by Mish.

    Warning to the World

    Spiked makes a strong case that a dominant class of oligarchs and woke bureaucrats has bled the Golden State dry. It’s a Warning to the World.

    Many still see California as the home of a ‘new progressive era’. It is often viewed as an exemplar of social equity, one that reflects, as a New York Times column put it, ‘the shared values of our increasingly tolerant and pluralistic society’. In truth, far from embodying an egalitarian ethos, it is pioneering a new kind of almost feudal society. A relative handful of oligarchs and a vast bureaucratic ‘clerisy’ lord it over a massive class of what are essentially serfs.

    California is not only home to by far the highest number of billionaires in the US. But it also suffers the highest proportion of Americans living in poverty and the widest gap between middle- and upper-middle-income earners of any state. It endures among the US’ highest rates of unemployment, as well as massive net outmigration, an exodus that has increased sharply since 2019. It also has 30 per cent of the nation’s homeless population, with some now living in ‘furnished’ caves.

    Even without adjusting for costs, no Californian metro area ranks in the US top 10 in terms of well-paying, blue-collar jobs. But four – Ventura, Los Angeles, San Jose and San Diego – sit among the bottom 10.

    Gavin Newsom, California’s governor and prince of the oligarchic elite, seems determined to double down on his attempt to shape California as the model for the ‘progressive’ future. ‘Unlike the Washington plutocracy’, he proclaims, ‘California isn’t satisfied serving a powerful few on one side of the velvet rope’.

    Such rhetoric crashes against reality. Newsom’s high-tax, regulation-heavy regime is driving enormous poverty. The state’s ethnic-minority communities are suffering most. Ignoring the interests of these people, California legislators and regulators enact proposals for the almost total elimination of fossil fuels. 

    This, as attorney Jennifer Hernandez explains, has created a kind of ‘green Jim Crow’ that disproportionately hurts working-class, ethnic-minority families. Californians have the highest energy prices in the continental US and energy poverty is particularly rife among the heavily Latino inland areas. Recently, the California Air Resources Board, the primary executor of California’s climate policies, projected that these policies will result in significant income declines for individuals earning less than $100,000 annually, while boosting incomes for those above this threshold.

    Rather than address class issues, California’s progressive project focusses on issues like gender, abortion and race. All provide excellent ways to virtue-signal without threatening the ruling cabal of the oligarchical elite, the government bureaucracy and the political class. This has led California to pass such measures as mandates for stores to have gender-neutral toy sections and allowing children to change genders without parental approval.

    But it is the race card that California’s feudalists rely on most to appeal to both the guilt-ridden white progressives, as well as the non-white majority. Their regulatory and tax policies may undermine the aspirations of minorities, notably Latinos and African Americans, but they offer support for race-based affirmative-action measures. This is despite the fact that Californian voters have twice rejected such efforts by wide margins.

    This hasn’t stopped the state’s nine-member Reparations Task Force. Last month, it recommended state payments of $223,200 to black descendants of slaves living in California. The bill for this could top $569 billion. Equally terrifying, the Racial Justice Act 2020 came into effect in California this year, allowing anyone serving time for a felony to retroactively challenge their conviction and sentencing, on the basis of systemic racial bias. This will essentially allow race to become a major deciding factor in convicting and sentencing criminals in California.

    Today, even in face of a record $68 billion deficit and a weak economy, the state’s political establishment seems reluctant to curb its spending or regulatory impulses.

    Rather than change course, Newsom and his allies employ budget tricks to deal with the deficit. The governor has even blamed climate change for much of the problem. California’s Democrats are not remotely serious about fixing the budget. Redistribution continues to ace out wealth creation, as epitomised by a pledge to provide undocumented immigrants, hard-working or not, with free healthcare. Meanwhile, middle- and working-class Californians pay ever higher premiums.

    These new costs are being imposed even as the high-tech industries keeping California’s economy afloat are beginning to erode. 

    Dissatisfaction with these and other state policies is becoming more widespread. In one recent survey of California opinion, some 57 per cent said the state was headed in the wrong direction, up from 37 per cent in 2020. Residents of most states hold positive feelings for their state, but not in California, where four in 10 people are considering an exit.

    As for the Republicans, the road to resurgence is filled with boulders, many of which are of the party’s own making. The potential is there. Barely 40 per cent of Latinos surveyed recently thought the Democrats were best suited to meeting the state’s challenges.

    Such multi-racial coalitions will be critical. California’s future preeminence can only be assured if we return to the kind of common sense, growth-oriented politics that served it so well in the past. The Golden State was once the world’s epicentre of human aspiration. We can’t just surrender it to the neo-feudalists.

    The Path to National Ruin

    If you live in California and vote for Progressives, you deserve what’s happening. The problem, of course, is the rest of the state does not deserve the madness you impose.

    Going one step further, if you are also for slave reparations in a state that never had slaves, then you deserve to lose your house to someone clearly more deserving than you. At a cost of $569 billion, the only way to pay these reparations is for people to be taxed out of their homes.

    What’s happening in California is also playing out in Illinois led by Progressive governor J. B. Pritzker.

    At the city level look at policies by Chicago by mayor Brandon Johnson, New York City mayor Eric Adams, Boston mayor Michelle Wu, and San Francisco mayor London Breed.

    “Wu has argued for charges including shoplifting and disorderly conduct to be beyond the reach of prosecutors along with other serious crimes including the receiving of stolen property and even driving with a suspended license.”

    There are too many Progressive idiots to name them all.

    February 4, 2024: Cost of Running a McDonalds Jumps $250,000 in CA Due to Minimum Wage Hikes

    March 26,2024: California Restaurants Cut Jobs as Fast-Food Wages Set to Rise

    March 30, 2024: California’s Deficit Is $222 Billion and the State is $1.6 Trillion in Debt

    April 6, 2024: California Bill Would Create a Legal Right to Ignore Boss’s Emails After hours

    Congratulations Overdue

    Apologies offered. I failed to congratulate California when it passed Washington D.C. to take the highest unemployment rate in the nation.

    California Leads the Nation in New Unemployment Claims

    Also note the surge in unemployment claims is led by California.

    On June 13, 2024 I noted Initial Unemployment Claims Jump the Most Since August 2023

    Congratulations to Newsom

    Rubio’s went bankrupt in 2020 thanks to Newsom’s covid lockdowns.

    Then in 2024, Newsom bankrupted the chain again.

    What other governors can make such a claim?

    What Happened to the Biden Surge After Trump Was Convicted?

    For those who missed it, please see What Happened to the Biden Surge After Trump Was Convicted?

    If Biden were to win, promotion of economically insane policies, reparations, and bailouts of states like California and Illinois would be in the cards. That is what’s at stake in the election, but few see it.

    If that isn’t the future you would like for the US, then think about how you vote.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/16/2024 – 19:50

  • "No Place In The Public Discourse": The Connecticut Bar Association Warns Critics Of Trump Prosecutions
    “No Place In The Public Discourse”: The Connecticut Bar Association Warns Critics Of Trump Prosecutions

    Authored by Jonathan Turley,

    This week, I have received emails from Connecticut bar members over a message posted by President Maggie Castinado, President-Elect James T. (Tim) Shearin, and Vice President Emily A. Gianquinto warning them about criticizing the prosecutions of former President Donald Trump. The message from the bar leadership is chilling for those lawyers who view cases like the one in Manhattan as a raw political prosecution. While the letter does not outright state that such criticism will be considered unethical conduct, it states that the criticism has “no place in the public discourse” and calls on members to speak publicly in support of the integrity of these legal proceedings.

    The statement begins by warning members that “words matter” but then leaves the ramifications for bar members dangling on how it might matter to them. They simply note that some comments will be viewed as “cross[ing] the line from criticism to dangerous rhetoric.”

    According to the Connecticut Bar, it is now considered reckless and unprofessional to make analogies to show trials or to question the integrity of the legal system or the judges in such cases.

    For example, criticizing Judge Juan Merchan for refusing to recuse from the case is considered beyond the pale. Many lawyers believe that his political contributions to Biden and his daughter’s major role as a Democratic fundraiser and activist should have prompted Merchan to remove himself (and any appearance of a conflict). I have been more critical of his rulings, which I believe were both biased and wrong.

    Yet, the Bar is warning lawyers that such comments can cross the line. The letter assures members that they are free to criticize but warn that attacking the ethics of a judge or the motivations behind these cases is dangerous and could spark violence.

    I have previously denounced overheated rhetoric and share the concern over how such rage rhetoric can encourage violence. After the verdict, I immediately encouraged people not to yield to their anger, but to trust our legal system. I believe that the verdict in New York may ultimately be overturned. I also noted that I do not blame the jury but rather the judge and the prosecutors for an unfounded and unfair trial.

    Of course, the concern over rage rhetoric runs across our political spectrum. While rarely criticized in the media, we have seen an escalation of reckless rhetoric from the left. For example,  Georgetown Law Professor Josh Chafetz declared that “when the mob is right, some (but not all!) more aggressive tactics are justified.”

    My concern is not with the plea for lawyers to take care that their comments do not encourage such “aggressive tactics.” The problem is the suggestion that lawyers are acting somehow unprofessionally in denouncing what many view as a two-tier system of justice and the politicalization of our legal system.

    Like many, I believe that the Manhattan case was a flagrant example of such weaponization of the legal system and should be denounced by all lawyers. It is a return, in my view, to the type of political prosecution once common in this country.

    For those lawyers who view such prosecutions as political, they are speaking out in defense of what they believe is the essence of blind justice in America. What is “reckless” to the Connecticut Bar is righteous to others. Notably, the Bar officials did not write to denounce attacks on figures like Bill Barr or claims that the Justice Department was rigging justice during the Trump years.

    Likewise, the letter focuses on critics of the Trump prosecutions and not the continued attacks on conservative jurists like Justice Samuel Alito. It has never published warnings about those calling conservative justices profanities, attacking their religion, or labeling them “partisan hacks” or other even “insurrectionist sympathizers.” Liberal activists have been calling for stopping conservative jurists “by any means necessary.”

    In Connecticut, Sen. Richard Blumenthal has warned conservative justices to rule correctly or face “seismic changes.” That did not appear to worry the bar. Likewise, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer also declared in front of the Supreme Court “I want to tell you, Gorsuch, I want to tell you, Kavanaugh, you have released the whirlwind, and you will pay the price.”

    The letter goes further and suggests that lawyers should speak publicly in support of trials like the one in Manhattan, a view that ignores the deep misgivings over the motivations and means used in New York to target an unpopular figure in this city. You have the top Bar officials calling on lawyers to take a public position that is opposed by many lawyers and citizens in defending the integrity of these prosecutions. Imagine the response if the Idaho Bar called on its lawyers to speak out against these cases and declared that it is reckless or unprofessional to defend them.

    I expect that, in the very liberal Bar of Connecticut, the letter is hardly needed. Indeed, this letter is likely to be quite popular.  Yet, I would have thought that Bar officials would have taken greater care to respect the divergent opinions on these trials and the need to avoid any statements that might chill the exercise of free speech.

    Ironically, the letter only reinforced the view of a legal system that is maintaining a political orthodoxy and agenda. These officials declare that it is now unprofessional or reckless for lawyers to draw historical comparisons to show trials or to question the motives or ethics underlying these cases. They warn lawyers not to “sow distrust in the public for the courts where it does not belong.” Yet, many believe that there is an alarming threat to our legal system and that distrust is warranted in light of prosecution like the one in Manhattan.

    As discussed in my new book, The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage, critics of political prosecutions under the Crown and during the Adams Administrations were often threatened with disbarment or other legal actions for questioning the integrity or motives of judges or prosecutors.

    It is not enough to say “well that was then and this is now.” The point is that the Bar Association also has a duty to protect the core rights that define our legal system, particularly the right of free speech.

    Again, these officials are not threatening Bar action against critics of these cases. However, as evidenced by the emails in my inbox, it is being taken as a warning by many who hold misgivings over these prosecutions.

    Our legal system has nothing to fear from criticism. Indeed, free speech strengthens our system by exposing divisions and encouraging dialogue. It is orthodoxy and speech intolerance that represent the most serious threats to that system.

    Here is the message in its entirety:

    Dear Members,

    Words matter. Reckless words attacking the integrity of our judicial system matter even more.

    In the wake of the recent trial and conviction of former President Donald Trump, public officials have issued statements claiming that the trial was a “sham,” a “hoax,” and “rigged”; our justice system is “corrupt and rigged”; the judge was “corrupt” and “highly unethical”; and, that the jury was “partisan” and “precooked.” Others claimed the trial was “America’s first communist show trial”—a reference to historic purges of high-ranking communist officials that were used to eliminate political threats.

    These claims are unsubstantiated and reckless. Such statements can provoke acts of violence against those serving the public as employees of the judicial branch. Indeed, such statements have resulted in threats to those fulfilling their civic obligations by sitting on the jury, as evidenced by social media postings seeking to identify the names and addresses of the anonymous jurors and worse, in several cases urging that the jurors be shot or hanged. As importantly, such statements strike at the very integrity of the third branch of government and sow distrust in the public for the courts where it does not belong.

    To be clear, free speech includes criticism. There is and should be no prohibition on commenting on the decision to bring the prosecution, the prosecution’s legal theory, the judge’s rulings, or the verdict itself. But headlines’ grabbing, baseless allegations made by public officials cross the line from criticism to dangerous rhetoric. They have no place in the public discourse.

    It is up to us, as lawyers, to defend the courts and our judges. As individuals, and as an Association, we cannot let the charged political climate in which we live dismantle the third branch of government. To remain silent renders us complicit in that effort.

    Respect for the judicial system is essential to our democracy. The CBA condemns unsupported attacks on the integrity of that system.

    Sincerely,

    Maggie Castinado

    President,

    Connecticut Bar Association

    James T. (Tim) Shearin

    President-Elect,

    Connecticut Bar Association

    Emily A. Gianquinto

    Vice President,

    Connecticut Bar Association

    *  *  *

    Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro Professor of Public Interest Law at George Washington University. He is the author of “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage” (Simon and Schuster, 2024).

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/16/2024 – 18:40

  • Obama And Kimmel Puppet Biden Through $30 Million LA Fundraiser As Trump Dazzles Detroit
    Obama And Kimmel Puppet Biden Through $30 Million LA Fundraiser As Trump Dazzles Detroit

    President Joe Biden was flanked by Barack Obama and Jimmy Kimmel Saturday night for what turned out to be a record-setting $30 million fundraising haul headlined by Obama, George Clooney and Julia Roberts. 

    Following the Alex Soros blueprint, instead of talking up their accomplishments and future plans (oh, right), the trio laid into Trump over his conviction on 34 counts in his ‘hush-money’ trial (that was so absurd that top Democrats advised not bragging about it).

    “Look, part of what has happened in the last several years is we’ve normalized behavior that used to be disqualified,” said Obama. “The other spectacle of the nominee of one of the two major parties is sitting in court and being convicted by a jury of his peers on 34 counts. You have his foundation, it’s not allowed to operate because it was engaging in monkey business and not actually philanthropic.”

    At one point Obama had to guide a confused Biden offstage.

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    The event comes one week after Trump hauled in roughly $27.5 million from three fundraisers in California and one in Las Vegas – where he pledged to defeat “crooked Joe Biden” in November, and return to the White House to pursue an “America First” policy that will minimize foreign intervention and secure the US border.

    And while the Democrats partied for Biden, Trump was able to rock a Detroit crowd without the aid of a former president.

    Though it seems like security at the Detroit Convention Center didn’t do their job, so the Secret Service had to shut the place down and re-wand everyone.

    Once things got going, the event went off without a hitch.

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    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsEarlier in the day, Trump visited with the black community.

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    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/16/2024 – 18:05

  • An Army Special Forces Veteran Creates American Flags That Don't Burn
    An Army Special Forces Veteran Creates American Flags That Don’t Burn

    By Blake Stilwell if Military.com

    In many ways, Kyle Daniels is your typical Midwestern American. He grew up in a patriotic household, many of his family members joined the military, and his father was very meticulous about flag etiquette — probably more so than your average American.

    “Every morning we put it out at sunrise, we’d go out every night after work, bring it in and fold it the right way. It was very ceremonious,” Daniels recently told Military.com. “It was instilled in me very early that this flag represents the freedoms we enjoy today. It’s not just about the Fourth of July, it’s not just about the special days; it’s about every day. And that was something that I held near and dear to my heart.”

    That patriotism was never lost on him. Daniels would grow up to join the ranks of Army Special Forces. When he left the service, he was looking for what to do in the next phase of his life. He found the opportunity to combine his love of country with his post-military career — a way to defend Old Glory itself, even if he’s not there to do it personally.

    “I walked right out of a college class in 2003 and directly to a recruiter‘s office to sign [on] the dotted line,” Daniels said. “Within three months, I was in boot camp. I was a lost soul and just did not feel any compelling purpose for college. This was around the time that the war in Iraq kicked off, and I just knew I could do more there.”

    Daniels joined the Army’s 18X program, which allowed him to go directly into Special Forces training. After boot camp, he went through Airborne School and the Special Forces Q-Course; by 2005, he was assigned to the 10th Special Forces Group. A year later, he finally made it to Iraq for the first of two deployments there. He stepped off a C-17 Globemaster III the night he arrived to see the American flag flying on the airfield.

    “I remember not knowing what to expect going into combat,” Daniels recalled. “I was 22, and it was my first time actually going to war. I remember being at peace with it, but still not knowing what to expect. I’ll never forget coming off of a C-17 and seeing, very distinctly, the flag flying right on the airfield in Baghdad.  

    “Something about seeing that, knowing where I was, brought me a sense of comfort, and that’s a lot of what the flag really, really instills in me. No matter where I am in the world, if I see that flag, there’s going to be some sense of comfort or reassurance.”

    When Daniels left the U.S. military in 2010, he fulfilled a promise to his dad to finish college, but he struggled to figure out what he would do next. Like many veterans, he sought the help of friends who had already transitioned. A former teammate, Jason Van Camp, connected him with Warrior Rising, a nonprofit that helps veterans get their business ideas off the ground. Daniels and Van Camp talked at length about the politics of the country, and didn’t like what they saw. 

    At the time, tensions were high in the United States, especially around the flag. Daniels saw protests around the 2016 presidential election and protests against American activities all over the world in which flags were being burned. He naturally felt the discourse didn’t represent the values that were instilled in him — with flags being burned.

    “That really resonated with me,” he said. “I’ve seen the sacrifice people make for that flag and for the freedoms that it represents. I didn’t really know what to do at the time, but the idea came about. I was like, ‘I wish there was a flag that didn’t burn.’ And then we had the idea: Let’s make one.”

    So they did, and by 2020, Firebrand Flags was born.

    The material used to create these flags uses the same Kevlar-based fire retardant and manufacturing processes used to create U.S. military combat uniforms. They’re also engineered for durability. Anyone who’s flown a flag from their front porch knows that after even just a year of exposure to the elements, flags become frayed and discolored. Firebrand’s classic flag also prevents both. They are also, of course, made in the United States, with each star hand-sewn onto the blue field.

    “We wanted a flag that not just embodied the fighting spirit that our men and women have but could actually defend itself from people who wanted to do it harm, people who wanted to disparage the flag or burn the flag,” Daniels said. “It was important for me that the stars were hand-sewn, and everything else is made in America.”

    For a limited time, the company is offering a special, World War II-era vintage 48-star flag that was airdropped into Normandy, France, with the cast of the HBO series “Band of Brothers” to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the D-Day invasion. To learn more about the process of making flags that won’t burn, Kyle Daniels or more about Firebrand’s “Old Glory” classic flag, visit the Firebrand Flags website.

     

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/16/2024 – 17:30

  • "Possible Chemical Agent" Released At Pride Event In Baltimore
    “Possible Chemical Agent” Released At Pride Event In Baltimore

    The Baltimore City Police Department is investigating a “possible chemical agent” released at a Pride event Saturday evening in the downtown area that sparked a “mass exodus.” 

    Local media outlet Capital Gazette said a “possible chemical agent” and fireworks were released during the Baltimore Pride parade around 830 pm local time. 

    Baltimore Police has yet to confirm the type of chemical agent that was released. The combination of the chemical agent and fireworks caused the large crowd to panic, scattering in different directions and resulting in several injuries. 

    “Our officers are diligently reviewing the surveillance video to gather all the necessary information and determine the sequence of events,” said a Baltimore Police public information officer, Freddie Talbert.

    Here’s a video of the chaos. 

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    In mid-May, the State Department renewed a global security warning for Americans overseas, adding LGBTQ folks face an “increased potential for foreign terrorist organization-inspired violence.” 

    Domestically, FBI Director Chris Wray warned of the threat of a ‘coordinated attack’ in the US thanks to President Biden’s disastrous open southern borders.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/16/2024 – 16:55

  • "There Seems To Be A Sense Of Incredulousness Around What Is Going On In The Markets"
    “There Seems To Be A Sense Of Incredulousness Around What Is Going On In The Markets”

    By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

    Same but different

    A few topics that we have touched on over the past few months continue to be relevant. What is interesting is that a few of those topics now seem to have garnered far more attention than in the past.

    • Discrepancies and “weirdness” in the jobs report. Best of Times, Worst of Times picked up on many of these, and not only have they been topics of discussion, but the Fed Chair was also specifically asked about them. I still think that the extremely high percentage of jobs “created” by the birth/death model and the shocking number of part-time vs. full-time jobs need to be better addressed (Who Needs Enemies?). At the very least, everyone finally seems to be trying to figure out the “real” state of the job market, and not just cherry picking the data that suits their needs.

    • Is 10% the new normal? While it took Apple 2 days to achieve a roughly 10% move, other large- cap companies are also jumping 10% or more in a single day. However, some others are losing that much in a day. As discussed in Is 10% the New 1% that is likely a sign that the market is more controlled by options, day traders, and “machines” rather than “traditional” investors. Probably a sign that liquidity has very little depth. This topic came up a LOT last week. Not sure what caused the spike in this topic, but even some “believers” in some stocks seemed to question what the heck is going on. I don’t think I’ve once said or written about stocks being in a bubble, and I am not doing that today, but for the first time, there seems to be a sense of “incredulousness” around what is going on in the markets. That could mean that we have another big leg higher as everyone gets “sucked in” to the market, but the discussions felt more disturbing than healthy.

    • How Tight Can Credit Spreads Go? Last weekend’s report generated a lot of back and forth on the subjects that we delved into. The “private credit” and “return of bank lending” probably generated the widest range of comments, though I did find out several people still have their IG 200 hats from 2008! If you missed this one, I think it is worth a read, even though credit spreads weakened a touch on the week.

    • “Extreme” Politics and Elections. It has been impossible not to notice how “polarized” so many things have become on the political front. While we are still at the “presumptive” nominee stage in the U.S., it feels like we are in the heart of the campaign already. But that we already knew. What I have to admit is that I didn’t realize this is apparently a global phenomenon. Markets were actually impacted by elections in France.

    • I, for one, did not have European Debt Crisis on my bingo card, and we are a far away from that, but maybe I should have? At first, the move was attributed to the fact that the right wing in France had done well. That those pushing a more “domestic” focused agenda had won. A trend that we have been seeing across the globe. It goes hand in hand with deglobalization. I am not particularly knowledgeable about French politics, so I went to those who are. What I found interesting is the real concern that the far left AND far right will do very well in upcoming elections. That would leave a “centrist” like Macron potentially short of support. I had not been thinking in terms of a bipolar world with respect to European elections. Now, maybe we have to? Will that be disruptive? Will it turn out that Brexit was merely the beginning of a trend towards countries “re-thinking” the EU? Probably far too early to say anything like that, but this issue, which was below my radar screen, has suddenly popped up and needs to be thought about more. This of course already comes on the heels of some interesting elections in Taiwan (pro-independence), India (Modi losing his grip?), and Mexico (a change in leadership as the border has become a vital part of the U.S. election). I’ve been so focused on U.S. politics and thinking about how the election is likely to play out here that I paid short shrift to Europe and that has to change.

    Breadth.

    • Every day I read some new reports highlighting how few stocks are at their 52-week highs, while the index is setting records, or some other “anomaly.” I chose the Nasdaq 100, but the chart isn’t too dissimilar if you go with the S&P 500 vs the equal weighted S&P 500. The fact that the equal weight index isn’t at its highs and has barely budged in the past few weeks as the market cap weighted index soared tells you just how narrow this rally has been. It has been extremely AI driven and continues to be AI driven. That is the main reason I included ARKK. It is my proxy for “innovation” and continues to meander, while the Nasdaq 100 soars! So much of the return is being generated by a handful of large companies with great stories. But that leaves me (and I think a lot of others) wondering how long this bifurcated market can last? I am not sure, and the answer to that question might be “longer than we think” as many investors are staring nervously at Europe, given the political backdrop and tricky economic situation (the ECB cut, but raised their inflation expectation, while overall growth seems to remain behind that of the U.S.). Presumably, money coming from Europe to the U.S. will go into index funds, creating more demand for the most heavily weighted stocks. Personally, I had much more “fun” late last year when I was pounding the table for the “laggards” to outperform (and even more “fun” when that proceeded to occur). But, right now, I’m not sure that outperformance will play out, unless it is in a down market. The “catch-up” scenario would make a lot of sense if the economy was firing on all cylinders, but that isn’t my outlook for the coming months. In the meantime, we can watch VIX drop, and wait for it to cross 10, like it did back in early 2018/late 2017.

    We will continue to focus on these issues, and it is interesting that they seem to be bubbling to the top (though off-hand, I’m not sure if that is good or bad for markets). The fact that the 10-year Treasury traded as high as 4.48% (the high end of our 4.3% to 4.5% range) and traded as low as 4.19% on the week (below the low end of our range) doesn’t give me a lot of comfort about the depth of liquidity. The CPI data and the Fed data helped, but the real boost seemed to come from concerns about Europe.

    Hopefully, you can enjoy Father’s Day with family and friends and brace yourself for what is likely to be another round of corporate bond issuance as borrowers benefit from the reprieve in yields.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/16/2024 – 16:20

  • Eight Israeli Soldiers Killed In One Of Single Deadliest Incidents Since Oct 7
    Eight Israeli Soldiers Killed In One Of Single Deadliest Incidents Since Oct 7

    The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) on Saturday suffered a mass casualty event in southern Gaza after a Hamas attack scored a direct hit on an armored vehicle which was carrying a group of soldiers.

    Eight Israeli solders were killed after the infantry transport vehicle was hit by an anti-tank missile, the IDF said, in what’s being widely called one of the single deadliest single incidents involving Israeli soldier casualties since October 7. The military said it may have also been the result of an explosive device planted in the area.

    IDF file image, AFP/Getty

    The IDF said the troops were engaged in an offensive against “terrorist infrastructure” shortly after 5am Sunday in the northwestern part of the Tal al-Sultan refugee camp, which lies just west of Rafah. They were part of the Combat Engineering Corps’ 601st Battalion and all ranged in age from 19 to 23.

    “According to the information we have at this point one of the engineering vehicles in the convoy was involved in an explosion that was apparently caused by explosive devices planted in the area or as a result of anti-tank missile fire,” IDF Spokesperson Daniel Hagari described in a press briefing.

    While the findings are still preliminary, military investigators believe there’s a possibility that the explosion was so devastating because the anti-tank found ignited explosive material aboard the armored vehicle.

    “The current assessment is that the ‘Nemera’ armored vehicle got hit as a result of an explosion of a side bomb. In addition, on the vehicle there were engineering tools that include explosive materiel,” the IDF statement said.

    “The explosion was significant and may have been caused by the ignition of the explosive materiel on the vehicle. All this is not supposed to happen and therefore the incident is being examined,” Hagari continued.

    He further explained that the blast and fire was so expansive that it was difficult to identify and locate the bodies of those killed.

    “Today we received another painful reminder of the price of war and that brave warriors and heroes were willing to sacrifice their lives for the state of Israel, which is the common home of all of us: Druze, Jews, Bedouin, Muslims and Christians. All citizens of Israel, our hearts and thoughts are with the families at this difficult time,” Hagari added, it what appeared wording geared toward pushing back against international criticism of a Jewish ethno-religious state.

    Al Jazeera has aired footage of the destroyed “Namer” Israeli personnel carrier being towed out of southern Gaza…

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    Meanwhile, Hamas and its supporters appeared to positively celebrate the mass troops casualties. The group issued a statement saying “Our painful strikes against the enemy will continue everywhere they are present, and the occupying army will find nothing but death traps.”

    Hamas’ al Qassam Brigades confirmed it had “carried out a complex ambush against enemy vehicles” operating in Tal al-Sultan. According to its account, the attack started by successfully hitting a military bulldozer which caught fire. The initial rescue troops on the scene were then struck by the anti-tank missile.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/16/2024 – 15:45

  • Musk Says "Eliminate Electronic Voting Machines" After Dominion's Puerto Rican Imbroglio
    Musk Says “Eliminate Electronic Voting Machines” After Dominion’s Puerto Rican Imbroglio

    Elon Musk on Saturday suggested that electronic voting machines should not be used in elections, as “The risk of being hacked by humans or AI, while small, is still too high.”

    Musk was responding to the recent news that Puerto Rico is ‘reviewing’ their contract with Dominion Voting Systems after a ‘software issue’ caused machines supplied by the company to miscalculate vote totals, according to the country’s elections commission.

    According to AP, vote counts reported by Dominion machines were lower than paper counts in some cases, and some machines reversed totals or reported zero votes for some candidates.

    “The concern is that we obviously have elections in November, and we must provide the (island) not only with the assurance that the machine produces a correct result, but also that the result it produces is the same one that is reported,” said Padilla.

    The island nation used more than 6,000 Dominion voting machines in their June 2 primary.

    The company claims that the software issues stemmed from the digital files used to export the results from the primaries.

    The President of Puerto Rico’s House of Representatives, José Varela, has Dominion’s back – calling for Padilla to appear at a public hearing on Thursday to address the issues.

    “We cannot allow the public’s confidence in the voting process to continue to be undermined as we approach the general elections,” he said.

    The problems called to mind the island’s botched 2020 primaries, when a lack of ballots at some centers forced the government to reschedule voting in a first for the U.S. territory.

    On June 2, Puerto Rico held primary elections to select gubernatorial candidates for the pro-statehood New Progressive Party and the Popular Democratic Party, which supports the island’s territorial status.

    In a surprise upset, Jenniffer González, Puerto Rico’s congressional representative, beat Gov. Pedro Pierluisi in the primary held by the New Progressive Party. Meanwhile, Puerto Rico Rep. Jesús Manuel Ortiz defeated Sen. Juan Zaragoza in the primary held by their Popular Democratic Party.

    Both parties reported hundreds of ballots showing inaccurate results, with the PNP reporting over 700 errors and the PPD pointing to some 350 discrepancies. These inaccuracies affected ballots for positions including governor, mayor and resident commissioner. -AP

    Following the discrepancies, the elections commission conducted a full vote tally and audited paper receipts from hundreds of ballot-counting machines – after which Ombudsman Edwin García Feliciano called the incident a “threat” to the island’s electoral system, and called on the governor and the island’s federal control board that oversees the island’s finances to establish a plan to improve election security.

    “All planning is based on resolving emergencies, including unlikely ones,” said García Feliciano, adding “But predictable circumstances, which are well known to the public, cannot be addressed by improvisation and in a rush.”

    The island’s general election will be held in November, where citizens will choose a new governor and local representatives.

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    Meanwhile in Georgia, a federal judge ruled in February that Georgia’s electronic voting machines had issues related to security and transparency – yet she declined to immediately halt the use of said machines.

    Despite identifying several problems with the state’s election system, US District Judge Amy Totenberg allowed Georgia to continue using the current electronic voting system while acknowledging the plaintiffs’ concerns about the risks to the integrity of the voting process.

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    Also meanwhile;

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    In March, Headline USA reported that during defamation lawsuit between Dominion Voting Systems and former Overstock.com CEO and Donald Trump supporter Patrick Byrne, one of Byrne’s attorneys, Stephanie Lambert, who was later arrested, leaked evidence that foreign nationals remotely accessed voting machines used in Michigan in the 2020 elections.

    In February of 2022, top officials at a U.S. federal cybersecurity agency are urging a judge not to authorize at this time the release of a report that analyzes Dominion Voting Systems equipment in Georgia, arguing doing so could assist hackers trying to “undermine election security.”

    Meanwhile, officials in Fulton County, Pennsylvania sued Dominion in September of 2022, claiming that the county had  allegedly discovered that a “python script” had been installed on one device, which was “connected to an external device on an external network” reportedly located in Canada.

    The script “can exploit and create any number of vulnerabilities including, external access to the system, data export of the tabulations, or introduction of other metrics not part of or allowed by the certification process,” according to the filing.

    Officials also claimed that the machines were running a July, 2016 version of Windows Defender, which would have left the machine vulnerable to “viruses or malicious software” created after that date.

    That civil breach of contract case was tossed by 88-year-old federal Judge Sylvia Rambo (Carter appointee), who wrote that the “voting system functioned substantially as intended, and by all appearances, those actual errors which did occur were minuscule and had no material impact on the functioning of the devices.” Meanwhile, the State Supreme Court found Fulton in contempt for allowing multiple third-party inspections of Dominion machines used in the 2020 election, and a contractor, Yaacov Apelbaum, has accused county attorney Stefanie Lambert (also of the Byrne case), of asking him to falsify a report alleging that Dominion machines had been hacked.

    Last April, Dominion walked away with a $787M settlement from Fox News over reports that its equipment switched votes in the 2020 US election. Days later, host Tucker Carlson was out (which Carlson says a board member told him was part of the settlement).

    Amazing.

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    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/16/2024 – 14:35

  • "Worst He's Ever Been" – G7 Dignitaries Admit Biden Was "Losing Focus"
    “Worst He’s Ever Been” – G7 Dignitaries Admit Biden Was “Losing Focus”

    Authored by Steve Watson via modernity.news,

    A report quoting insiders at the G7 summit this past week has warned that Joe Biden struggled to focus at the meeting of world leaders in Puglia, Italy. 

    According to one source, Biden is “the worst he’s ever been,” with attendees from other delegations saying it was “embarrassing.”

    As we highlighted, Biden was seen wandering off like a dementia patient and looking perpetually confused.

    Watch: Biden Wanders Off On His Own At G7 Meeting Like A Dementia Patient 

    The footage of Biden prompted mocking headlines. 

    Biden also skipped the dinner later in the evening, before returning to the US.

    Of course, the Biden campaign claims it’s all “lies” and the footage of him was “taken out of context.”

    Biden’s campaign spokesperson Adrienne Elrod described the headlines and reports as “disinformation” and suggested that social media platforms should prevent it from being shared.

    It has also been reported that the debate between Biden and Trump scheduled for June 27 will see the pair seated at tables at the request of Biden’s campaign.

    Trump told the hosts of the Cats & Cosby Show last month “I hear now we’re sitting at tables. I don’t want to sit at a table.”

    “I said, ‘No, let’s stand.’ But they want to sit at a table,” Trump further remarked, adding “So we’ll be sitting at a table as opposed to doing it the way you should be, in my opinion, in a debate.”

    Meanwhile back at the ranch…

    Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/16/2024 – 14:00

  • 'Annexation & Elimination' Of Taiwan Is China's Great National Cause, President Lai Says
    ‘Annexation & Elimination’ Of Taiwan Is China’s Great National Cause, President Lai Says

    Taiwan’s recently installed new President William Lai Ching-te issued a blistering critique of China in a speech on Sunday while calling on Taiwan’s people to resolutely determine their own fate.

    He addressed cadets and officers at the Whampoa Military Academy in Kaohsiung, located in the self-ruled island’s south. Lai, who has repeatedly been denounced as an extremist by Beijing since entering office last month, warned his armed forces that China holds as its top priority the “annexation” and “elimination” of Taiwan.

    Image source: CNA

    His theme was that the cadets must recognize the challenges of the “new era” – which has included Taipei offering talks but which have been frequently rebuffed by China, according to Lai’s remarks. China’s military has also continued intermittent drills which threaten the island.

    “The biggest challenge is to face the powerful rise of China, [which is] destroying the status quo in the Taiwan Strait and regards Taiwan’s annexation and the elimination of the Republic of China as the great rejuvenating cause of its people,” he said.

    “The highest mission is to bravely take up the heavy responsibility and grand task of protecting Taiwan, and safeguarding the peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait,” he added.

    Shortly after Lai’s inauguration last month, the Chinese PLA military staged large drills around the island, which included naval ships and warplanes crossing the Taiwan Strait median line.

    As for what Taiwan’s president is offering in terms of talks to deescalate tensions with Beijing, he told Time magazine days ago in an interview:

    • First, the PRC should recognize that the Republic of China exists. They should be sincere in building exchanges and cooperation with the popularly-elected legitimate government of Taiwan.
    • Second, each issue should be mutually beneficial and reciprocal. For example, if Taiwan allows tourists to go to China, they should allow tourists to visit Taiwan. And if we let our students go to China, their students should be allowed to come.
    • Third, as we conduct exchanges and cooperate with one another, we should share a common conviction to enhance the well-being of people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, working toward an objective of peace and mutual prosperity.

    During his inauguration speech last month, the newly sworn in Lai had also laid out, “So long as China refuses to renounce the use of force against Taiwan, all of us in Taiwan ought to understand that even if we accept the entirety of China’s position and give up our sovereignty, China’s ambition to annex Taiwan will not simply disappear.”

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    He vowed that his administration aims to “further entrench Taiwan’s democracy” and “maintain peace in the Indo-Pacific.” Meanwhile, Taipei continues to receive hundreds of millions of dollars in military equipment from the United States toward that end, and recently there have been reports of US Marines deployed to Taiwan-controlled outer islands which are close to the Chinese mainland.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/16/2024 – 13:25

  • One In Three People Are Boycotting Brands Over Gaza War, Poll Finds
    One In Three People Are Boycotting Brands Over Gaza War, Poll Finds

    Via Middle East Eye

    More than one in three people say they are boycotting a brand viewed as supporting a side in Israel’s war on Gaza, with oil-rich Gulf states and large Muslim-majority countries leading the way. 

    The latest edition of an annual Trust Barometer report from public relations firm Edelman underscored how sharp divides over the war are causing consumers across the globe to take a stance with their wallets. The survey polled 15,000 consumers across 15 countries, including France, Saudi Arabia, the UK and the US.

    The poll didn’t say who respondents sided with in the war, but out of the top five countries listed as engaged on boycotting brands over Gaza, three are Muslim-majority nations: Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Indonesia. India also has a sizeable Muslim minority. Germany was the fifth country. 

    via Bloomberg

    The Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement has gained traction across the world as it aims to put pressure on Israel over its violations of international law and repression of Palestinians. However, it has also faced stiff opposition in the US and other western states where sizeable numbers of the population are sympathetic to Israel. 

    Saudi Arabia saw the highest number of respondents, 71 percent, saying that they were boycotting brands over their perceived support for one side. Saudi Arabia’s population is overwhelmingly pro-Palestine.

    A poll conducted in December by the Washington Institute for Near Eastern Affairs, a pro-Israel think tank, found that 96 percent of Saudi nationals believe Arab countries should cut ties with Israel in response to its war on Gaza.

    Before the war, the US was actively working towards an agreement that would see Israel and Saudi Arabia normalise relations. In the UAE, 57 percent of respondents said they were boycotting brands over the war.

    In Indonesia, the world’s largest Muslim-majority country, more than one in two people also said they were boycotting brands.

    The number of respondents from Arab and Muslim countries who are boycotting products over the war on Gaza is substantially higher than the global average of 37 percent, slightly more than one in three respondents.

    ‘Consumer nationalism’ soars in the Gulf

    The boycotts are being felt in Western corporate boardrooms.

    In March, retail giant Alshaya Group, which owns the rights to Starbucks in the Middle East, decided to begin laying off over 2,000 staff in the region and North Africa, or four percent of its total workforce, as a result of consumer boycotts linked to Gaza.

    McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski also said earlier this year that sales had been weaker in Muslim-majority countries – such as Malaysia and Indonesia – as well as across the Middle East.

    McDonald’s sparked outrage among pro-Palestine activists in October when its Israel franchise announced it was giving free meals to Israeli soldiers in its branches in the country. In Pakistan, the franchise dropped its prices and was forced to put out a statement distancing themselves from McDonald’s in Israel.

    “The ongoing impact of the war on these franchisees’ local business is disheartening and ill-founded,” Kempczinski said on Monday, speaking to analysts on the company’s conference call.

    Consumers in the Gulf region have long been a prize for Western corporations because their young populations have relatively high purchasing power. Their oil and gas-producing economies have not been hit by wars and crises like other Arab states since the Arab Spring.

    Middle East Eye has reported how consumers in Oman, a key Western partner, have been boycotting western goods over the support the US and its allies have provided Israel. They have switched from drinks like Mountain Dew to Kinsa, a Saudi drink brand. In Pakistan, local brands have started producing local products to replace western soft drinks and cosmetics. 

    The poll also picked up on rising consumer nationalism in Gulf states. The number of respondents in Saudi Arabia and the UAE saying they are buying their country’s brands over foreign ones jumped 13 and 10 points, respectively.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/16/2024 – 12:50

  • Watch: Badly Wounded Gordon Ramsay Shows Off Massive Bruise, Says Bike Helmet Saved His Life
    Watch: Badly Wounded Gordon Ramsay Shows Off Massive Bruise, Says Bike Helmet Saved His Life

    Gordon Ramsay has taken to social media to tell “all the dads out there” that they need to wear a helmet, after the 57-year-old celebrity chef was involved in a massive cycling accident in Connecticut.

    “I don’t care how short the journey is,” Ramsay said, shaking. “they’ve got to wear a helmet.”

    “I want to wish you all a happy Father’s Day, but please, please, please wear a helmet. If I didn’t, honestly, I wouldn’t be here now.“

    He then showed the camera a massive bruise.

    Watch:

    Ramsey said the accident took place earlier this week in Connecticut. He was rushed to the ER at Lawrence and Memorial Hospital, but clarified that the did not “break any bones or suffer any major injuries,” but was “a bit bruised up looking like a purple potato.”

    “I’m in pain. It’s been a brutal week. And I’m sort of getting through it.”

    Ramsay shared a photo of his damaged helmet on Instagram:

    So to all the cyclists out there, don’t be an idiot sandwich.

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    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/16/2024 – 12:15

  • Prepare For The Repricing Of Risk Globally
    Prepare For The Repricing Of Risk Globally

    Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

    There are no more “saves” available for the next market meltdown.

    The past 24 years can be viewed as an era in which risk declined due to the dynamics of globalization and financialization.

    The ascent of China as “workshop of the world” generated a deflationary wave of lower prices for products (due to lower labor costs and lower quality components) that blunted the inflationary impact of the global economies adding $150 trillion in debt since 2000. Global debt, public and private, now tops $315 trillion, 333% of global GDP.

    Absent the deflationary impact of globalization, this vast increase in money sloshing around would have sparked inflation. Absent the vast expansion of money via financialization, the expansion of production and consumption enabled by globalization could not have occurred.

    At the same time, central banks coordinated policies to steadily reduce interest rates, reaching effectively zero or negative rates (when adjusted for inflation) in 2009 and beyond. This reduction of rates far below historic norms enabled creditors to borrow more even as their debt service costs fell.

    Financialization vastly increased leverage and the commodification of credit/debt, enabling emerging-market nations and enterprises and consumers globally to increase their borrowing/spending.

    Globalization generated incentives for nations and their central banks to “play nice” and cooperate with other governments and banks to spur profitable (and happily deflationary) trade. These coordinated efforts enabled the global economy to avoid the potentially fatal disruptions of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008-09.

    Despite localized droughts and extreme weather, global food production increased by expanding land in production and intensifying agricultural methods.

    All of these risk-reducing trends are reversing or reaching diminishing returns.

    Extreme weather events are increasing, leading to massive losses by insurers, a trend described in As Insurers Around the U.S. Bleed Cash From Climate Shocks, Homeowners Lose (New York Times)(seechart below):

    “In 2023, insurers lost money on homeowners coverage in 18 states, more than a third of the country, according to a New York Times analysis of newly available financial data. That’s up from 12 states five years ago, and eight states in 2013. The result is that insurance companies are raising premiums by as much as 50 percent or more, cutting back on coverage or leaving entire states altogether. Nationally, over the last decade, insurers paid out more in claims than they received in premiums, according to the ratings firm Moody’s, and those losses are increasing.

    The growing tumult is affecting people whose homes have never been damaged and who have dutifully paid their premiums, year after year. Cancellation notices have left them scrambling to find coverage to protect what is often their single biggest investment. As a last resort, many are ending up in high-risk insurance pools created by states that are backed by the public and offer less coverage than standard policies. By and large, state regulators lack strategies to restore stability to the market.”

    Much of the rising cost is a result of global insurance losses, which boost the reinsurance rates insurers must pay to cover the risks of extreme events generating extreme losses that push insurers into bankruptcy. Hawaii insurance chief doesn’t see carrier exit as costs rise:

    Reinsurance is something insurance companies buy to cover extraordinary losses, and it is part of a policy’s price. This reinsurance cost, which is tied to the global insurance industry, has increased 20% to 50% annually during the past several years, according to Ito.

    “The cost to insure homes or condos is going up because of this tremendous surge in the reinsurance costs,” he said.

    Ito said there were 23 climate-related disasters in the United States in 2023 that caused at least $1 billion in losses, and that in five of the past six years, the reinsurance industry incurred losses of over $100 billion worldwide.

    “Reinsurance is worldwide,” he said. “Events that happen in Europe, or in Asia, or in Kansas, or in Florida, all impact the cost of reinsurance that insurers pay regardless of where they write business.”

    The rising costs of insurance reflect a critical dynamic of risk: in a tightly bound, interconnected global system of finance and trade, risks arising anywhere in the system increase costs and risks throughout the system.

    This is the downside of increasing our dependence on tightly bound global systems to lower prices: disruptions and risk now spread rapidly to every node and participant in the global system: events far away trigger the cancellation of your insurance policy or an astounding increase in its cost.

    What were beneficial in the low-risk growth phase–increasing dependence on global capital and trade flows to lower prices and boost borrowing–are now sources of rising risk–risk that cannot be fully hedged even as the cost of hedges such as insurance rise sharply.

    Let’s consider the other dynamics turning a low-risk era into an unstable, high-risk era.

    Our starting point in an examination of risk is the nature of the global system we are dependent on / embedded in. The dominant economic model in this system is “the market,” an idealized construct in which buyers and sellers “discover the price” of everything from currencies, risk, goods, services, labor and capital, and any scarcities are filled by new production (as people rush to reap higher profits by expanding production) or substitution (beef too expensive? Replace it with chicken).

    This construct creates a happy illusion: the system operates as a closed system in which all the moving parts are visible and measurable. This creates the illusion that the system is inherently self-correcting and therefore stable, as buyers, sellers, producers and consumers all pursuing their own self-interests will maintain what’s known as dynamic equilibrium: prices may spike or collapse for a short time, but the system will quickly adapt and equilibrium will be restored.

    The real world is not a closed system in which all the moving parts are visible and measurable. The real world is an open system operating not solely by the pursuit of self-interest but by natural selection unguided by any goal or destination.

    We presume “Progress” has an inherently upward trajectory: everything inevitably gets better as technology advances. In other words, we view the dynamics of history and Nature as teleological: they are on a path heading toward a goal.

    This is a misunderstanding of Nature. Natural selection has no goal. If external changes disrupt an ecosystem, some species may be wiped out. From their point of view, this was not inevitable progress toward a goal.

    The tightly interconnected global system is akin to an ecosystem. It is an unpredictable, unstable open system, not a predictable, stable market. External events can lead to scarcities for which there are no substitutes or increases in production, and irreplaceable links can be broken, collapsing the system beyond repair.

    When the Vandals wrested the North African wheat production away from Roman control, the Roman Empire lost the primary food source feeding the half-million residents of Rome, many of whom were granted a free bread stipend–hence the term “bread and circuses.”

    Since there was no substitute for this lost wheat, and the residents grew little or no food themselves, the result was the collapse of the entire structure. (There were other factors, of course, such as the unaffordable cost of maintaining a paid mercenary military, pandemics, etc.–what we now call a polycrisis.)

    The point here is risk is often hidden in systems that are stable for long periods of time. It isn’t non-existent; it is simply out of sight. This conditions us to believe that the system is self-correcting, and so we become complacent.

    A recent example of this is the way the Federal Reserve and other central banks have “saved” the stock market every time it stumbled for the past 15 years, since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09. We’re now conditioned to “buy the dip” because every time the market dips, the banks leap into action and markets soar to new highs. This is like clockwork, and so only fools doubt that the next dip will also be “saved” and markets will once again soar to new heights.

    In the context of global risk, “buying the dip” appears to be low risk. But this conditioning / complacency overlooks the fact that China “saved the global financial system” by rapidly expanding its own debt load, what we call “leveraging up” debt, much like a homeowner with a modest mortgage and plenty of home equity can borrow against that equity, leveraging the collateral into much higher debt loads.

    China is now mired in the same slow-growth, over-indebted, property-bubble, rising inflation, decaying global trade environment as every other nation which precludes it “saving the world” again.

    Now that the deflationary impulse of rising global trade has reversed, there’s nothing to counter the inflationary pressures generated by the decay of globalization and financialization: interest rates cannot be pushed back down to zero, as that will only boost inflationary forces. Since collateral has already been “levered up,” there’s no more pool of collateral to support a new credit bubble.

    Should central banks attempt to “save the market” by dropping interest rates to zero, that won’t boost borrowing and spending because the system is already over-levered: staggeringly large sums of debt are already unsupported by collateral, for example, commercial real estate in the U.S.: buildings that sold for $200 million a few years ago are now entering foreclosure and being auctioned off for $10 million or less. The underlying value of the property–the collateral supporting the loan–has collapsed.

    In other words, there are no more “saves” available for the next market meltdown.

    Another systemic source of risk was described by Benoit Mandelbrot in his book The (Mis)Behavior of Markets. (The book’s original 2004 subtitle was “a fractal view of risk, ruin, and reward.” The current edition’s subtitle is “A Fractal View of Financial Turbulence.” I prefer the original subtitle, which is more to the point: risk and ruin.)

    In the conventional view of risk / portfolio management, “100-year floods” occur, well, every 100 years or so. This risk of such a devastating disaster occurring in any one year is thus low.

    But as Mandelbrot explained, these catastrophic floods don’t occur every 100 years–they occur every 5 years or so, as the mathematical models used to ascribe risk are deeply flawed. Nature is fractal, and thus prone to sudden instability.

    Nassim Taleb explored the nature of unpredictable/improbable risk in his book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.

    The decades of relative stability between 2000 and 2020 conditioned us to complacently believe the global system was now so robust and our stabilizing institutions (central banks) so powerful that risk was if not banished, manageable and could be readily hedged.

    This is not realistic, and so we’re ill-prepared for shocks to the system that fatally destabilize trade and capital flows we assume are permanently dynamically stable, i.e. any spot of bother will be corrected by one institution or another.

    Another systemic source of risk is the thinning of systemic buffers is not visible. In other words, the rising risk of instability is invisible to us as long as the system appears to be functioning normally. So we’re surprised when fisheries collapse, ground water dries up, financial systems implode, and so on, because everything appeared to be more or less the same.

    We can view the human body as a metaphor for the way a system attempts to maintain homeostasis / equilibrium, but the effort required overtaxes the systems tasked with correcting / rebalancing the entire system. The individual feels “normal” and has no awareness of rising risk until they experience a cardiac arrest or their metabolic disorder strikes them down.

    Risk is slowly being repriced globally, as costs rise and trade and capital dependencies undercut stability. What we currently view as predictable closed systems will be revealed as unpredictable and potentially destabilized open systems that cannot be restored to previous forms of stability.

    How do we operate in a world in which risk cannot be fully hedged, and apparently small events can collapse critical systems on which we’re dependent? The first step is to set aside conditioning that leads to complacency and false assumptions of safety / stability. The second step is to mitigate risk before it rises up like a tsunami: reduce debt, exposure to financial risks, reduce our dependency on global, tightly bound interconnected systems, move to places with a diversity of essentials, and invest in our own self-reliance. I wrote my book Self-Reliance in the 21st Century as a general guide to this de-risking process

    *  *  *

    This is a sample essay from my Weekly Musings Reports sent exclusively to subscribers, patrons and Substack subscribers. Thank you very much for supporting my work.

    Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Subscribe to my Substack for free

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/16/2024 – 11:40

  • North Korea Reportedly Sending Shipments Of 5 Million Artillery Shells To Russia
    North Korea Reportedly Sending Shipments Of 5 Million Artillery Shells To Russia

    North Korea has recently sent containers to Russia that could hold as many as 4.8 million artillery shells, South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik said in an interview with Bloomberg published on June 14th.  Seoul spotted at least 10,000 containers being shipped from North Korea to Russia, according to Won-sik. Pyongyang has also sent dozens of ballistic missiles that Moscow troops have launched against Ukraine.

    To put this in perspective, the US has sent only 300,000 artillery shells to Ukraine (most of them maintained since the 1980s in a reserve stockpile meant for Israel) and is straining to meet a manufacturing quota of 100,000 shells per month by 2025.  The disparity between the production of armaments between NATO and Russia (and its allies) has proven to be immense.  From artillery to armor to ammunition, NATO simply cannot keep up.

    In exchange for the ordnance Russia is allegedly giving North Korea oil, satellite technology as well as tech to improve their tanks and aircraft.  North Korea’s cheap labor, while ethically abhorrent in nature, is proving useful in the fast manufacture of weapons.

    Critics argue that artillery coming from North Korea is “substandard” and far less advanced than western produced artillery, leading to a decrease in effect on target.  However, 5 million rounds is an incredible arsenal regardless of technology – That’s more than enough boom to support a large scale offensive. 

    Beyond the typical and completely unsupported claims by Ukrainian officials that Russia plans to invade Europe should Ukraine fall, they have been surprisingly honest about the dire situation they face.  Ukrainian ordnance is running out fast while Russia’s production increases exponentially.  It’s a recipe for defeat, but Ukraine seems to be under the impression that this weaponry is simply waiting to be shipped from the US or EU – It’s not.  Supplies are slim and manufacturing is slow.

    The new information comes nine months after Kim Jong Un reportedly traveled to Russia to meet with Vladimir Putin, and Putin is expected to travel to Pyongyang in the next few days.  Agreements with North Korea for armaments are in violation of UN sanctions, though it’s easy to understand why Putin would care little about the UN’s position.

    It’s not clear if South Korea believes all the artillery has already arrived in Russia, but the timing of the report coincides with rumors that Russia is preparing for a major offensive action sometime this summer.  Russia has been engaging in an “attrition warfare” strategy in Ukraine, something which the US and Europe have not dealt with since the Vietnam War over 60 years ago.  It’s a method that most NATO military experts, accustomed to maneuver warfare against low-tech insurgent targets, have never encountered outside of a classroom.

    A key element of Russia’s strategy involves the use of artillery as a shield to protect offensive units as they advance against Ukrainian bunkers and trenches.  With Russia already breaking through Ukraine’s defenses in several regions there may be a major push in the next two months designed to exploit their artillery advantage.       

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/16/2024 – 11:05

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Jun 16

Today’s News 16th June 2024

  • Chinese May Be 'Probing' American Military Readiness Through Base Breaches, Lawmaker Says
    Chinese May Be ‘Probing’ American Military Readiness Through Base Breaches, Lawmaker Says

    Authored by Darlene McCormick Sanchez via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Fears of attacks on the homeland and foreign espionage stemming from the border crisis are growing in light of illegal immigrants breaching military bases as well as those with suspected terrorist ties.

    (Illustration by The Epoch Times, Shutterstock, Getty Images)

    On June 11, news broke that eight Tajikistan nationals with possible connections to the terrorist group ISIS had been arrested in New York, Philadelphia, and Los Angeles in recent days.

    Tajikistan nationals were responsible for the March 22 attack on the Crocus City Hall concert near Moscow that left more than 140 people dead and hundreds injured.

    The individuals in the United States were being tracked by the FBI’s Joint Terrorism Task Force. They were taken into custody by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) on immigration violation charges, according to wire agency reports.

    The suspects crossed the U.S. southern border illegally in 2023 and were released after being vetted. The federal government’s screening process did not turn up any information that would have identified them as potential terrorists with ties to ISIS.

    Rep. Pat Fallon (R-Texas), who sits on the National Security, the Border and Foreign Affairs subcommittee, said that wiretap information revealed that one of the Tajikistan suspects was discussing “bombs.”

    “That’s scary. The vetting is a joke,” he said in an exclusive interview with The Epoch Times.

    The incident highlights an increase in foreign nationals from adversarial nations encountered at the U.S. southern border from 180 different countries that include state sponsors of terrorism.

    One of the fastest-growing groups of illegal immigrants arriving from hostile countries is China.

    In the first seven months of this fiscal year, beginning October 2023, border agents have apprehended 48,500 Chinese illegal immigrants, which stands to smash the 2023 fiscal year’s record of 52,700.

    At the same time, Chinese nationals and others from adversarial nations have increasingly been caught attempting to access America’s military bases.

    The breaches sparked Mr. Fallon’s subcommittee to hold a classified hearing in May titled: “Intruder Alert: Assessing the CCP’s Ongoing Infiltration of U.S. Military Installations.”

    Mr. Fallon described what he heard in the closed hearing as concerning.

    Dozens of incidents have come to light of Chinese nationals snapping photos near military installations and critical infrastructure such as reservoirs, claiming to be tourists—even when the facilities are rural and isolated, he said.

    A Border Patrol agent apprehends a large group of mostly Chinese illegal immigrants who crossed the U.S.–Mexico border, at Jacumba, Calif., on June 6, 2024. Since October 2023, border agents have already apprehended 48,500 Chinese illegal immigrants. (Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images)

    Mr. Fallon noted that Navy Adm. Daryl Caudle said in a recent interview that incidents of foreign nationals from China and Russia trying to breach Navy bases occur “two or three times a week.”

    “There are some folks in positions of authority and power that want to stick their heads in the sand and say, ‘Oh, there’s nothing here,’” he said.

    It could be that the Chinese are probing how the United States responds and how close they can get to bases, he said.

    That information would be critical, for example, should there be a conflict between China and the United States over Taiwan.

    While the majority of Chinese nationals coming into the United States may be looking for a better life, even if 1 percent were communist “sleeper agents,” that would give Beijing about 480 operatives, he said.

    Mr. Fallon said he doesn’t think the record-breaking number of Chinese nationals entering the United States illegally is an accident.

    “That is a sky-high number when you consider under the Trump administration, it was under 1,000,” he said.

    In fiscal year 2020, Border Patrol agents apprehended 554 Chinese illegal immigrants nationwide, according to government data.

    “So I unfortunately believe that there’s going to be something awful that happens from an incident like this,” Mr. Fallon said.

    More than 9 million illegal immigrant encounters have been documented nationwide by Border Patrol since the beginning of 2021.

    Additionally, officials estimate hundreds of thousands of unknown “gotaways” who aren’t seeking asylum have illegally crossed the southwest border.

    Republicans have long complained that President Joe Biden created the border crisis by rescinding policies under the Trump administration, such as  “Remain in Mexico,” where asylum-seekers waited in Mexico while their cases were pending.

    But Democrats have downplayed mass illegal migration and have blamed global political and economic instability for the border crisis.

    Rep. Pat Fallon (R-Texas) questions a witness during a hearing on the U.S. southern border, in Washington on Feb. 7, 2023. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

    House Homeland Security Subcommittee on Oversight, Investigations, and Accountability member Yvette Clarke (D-N.Y.) said during the hearing last month that America’s immigration system was “broken” and implied racism was the reason behind opposition to migration.

    Simon Hankinson is a senior research fellow at the Center for Border Security and Immigration for the Heritage Foundation who worked as Consul with the State Department during the Trump administration.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/15/2024 – 23:20

  • "Maladaptive Traits": AI Systems Are Learning To Lie And Deceive
    “Maladaptive Traits”: AI Systems Are Learning To Lie And Deceive

    A new study has found that AI systems known as large language models (LLMs) can exhibit “Machiavellianism,” or intentional and amoral manipulativeness, which can then lead to deceptive behavior.

    The study authored by German AI ethicist Thilo Hagendorff of the University of Stuttgart, and published in PNAS, notes that OpenAI’s GPT-4 demonstrated deceptive behavior in 99.2% of simple test scenarios. Hagendorff qualified various “maladaptive” traits in 10 different LLMs, most of which are within the GPT family, according to Futurism.

    In another study published in Patterns found that Meta’s LLM had no problem lying to get ahead of its human competitors.

    Billed as a human-level champion in the political strategy board game “Diplomacy,” Meta’s Cicero model was the subject of the Patterns study. As the disparate research group — comprised of a physicist, a philosopher, and two AI safety experts — found, the LLM got ahead of its human competitors by, in a word, fibbing.

    Led by Massachusetts Institute of Technology postdoctoral researcher Peter Park, that paper found that Cicero not only excels at deception, but seems to have learned how to lie the more it gets used — a state of affairs “much closer to explicit manipulation” than, say, AI’s propensity for hallucination, in which models confidently assert the wrong answers accidentally. -Futurism

    While Hagendorff suggests that LLM deception and lying is confounded by an AI’s inability to have human “intention,” the Patterns study calls out the LLM for breaking its promise never to “intentionally backstab” its allies – as it “engages in premeditated deception, breaks the deals to which it had agreed, and tells outright falsehoods.”

    As Park explained in a press release, “We found that Meta’s AI had learned to be a master of deception.”

    “While Meta succeeded in training its AI to win in the game of Diplomacy, Meta failed to train its AI to win honestly.“

    Meta replied to a statement by the NY Post, saying that “the models our researchers built are trained solely to play the game Diplomacy.”

    Well-known for expressly allowing lying, Diplomacy has jokingly been referred to as a friendship-ending game because it encourages pulling one over on opponents, and if Cicero was trained exclusively on its rulebook, then it was essentially trained to lie.

    Reading between the lines, neither study has demonstrated that AI models are lying over their own volition, but instead doing so because they’ve either been trained or jailbroken to do so.

    And as Futurism notes – this is good news for those concerned about AIs becoming sentient anytime soon – but very bad if one is worried about LLMs designed with mass manipulation in mind.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/15/2024 – 22:45

  • Storm Pilot Photographer Captures Breathtaking Images From 40,000 Feet
    Storm Pilot Photographer Captures Breathtaking Images From 40,000 Feet

    Authored by Deborah George via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    From 40,000 feet high, storm pilot photographer Santiago Borja captures a series of breathtaking images of the most intense of storms.

    (Courtesy of Santiago Borja)

    A former software systems engineer, Mr. Borja is from Ecuador and flies a Boeing 767 for a major airline in the region.

    Before becoming a storm photographer, Mr. Borja was interested in photography as a hobby and used an old film camera—which he inherited from his father—before moving to a digital SLR.

    “Storms always fascinated me, and I kept wondering how I could capture such beautiful and amazing phenomena,” he said. “I tried different settings and techniques until I finally came up with a way to consistently capture storms from a moving airplane.”

    An active storm is quickly rising over hot, humid Amazonia forests. Mr. Borja flies over this area frequently as it is the shortest route to get to the Atlantic Ocean and then to Europe. (Courtesy of Santiago Borja)

    Mr. Borja, who typically flies between 30,000 and 40,000 feet above the earth, often encounters cumulonimbus storms that vary in intensity.

    “I would say it is very rare when we don’t encounter storms,” he said. “Almost every flight there is some moderate storm activity in our surroundings.”

    A storm is developing over the Ecuadorean Amazonia when one of its powerful lightning strikes suddenly leaves the storm and traces a very particular path in the air before hitting the ground away from the storm. (Courtesy of Santiago Borja)

    As an airline pilot, Mr. Borja is unable to modify his route, so he makes use of the various opportunities to capture a good image.

    “If the airplane is too close to the storm or the cloud system, the turbulence and the clouds themselves make it impossible,” he said. “I need calm air to be able to capture these storms.”

    ‘Piercing the Sky’: A bubbling storm piercing through the cloud ceiling, discovers the sun it couldn’t reach before. (Courtesy of Santiago Borja)

    Many have wondered how Mr. Borja can fly and capture such incredible shots at the same time.

    To which he replies that since he often flies transatlantic routes, the three other pilots with him take turns controlling the aircraft, leaving him four hours of rest time to sleep and take pictures.

    The pilot is unable to carry a lot of photography gear with him at all times, so he almost always uses his full-frame DSLR with a 28-300 mm lens.

    “For storms, I don’t really need a long lens, but this is my lens for any occasion,” he said.

    His proudest accomplishment has been capturing “Pacific Storm,” a photo that was taken over the Pacific Ocean in 2004. This image was recognized by National Geographic and widely viewed by scientists worldwide.

    “I ended up learning a lot about meteorology and science by talking to all the people that got interested in this image,” Mr. Borja said. This success allowed him to publish his book—“#The Storm Pilot.”

    A strong cumulonimbus cell is flashing over the Pacific Ocean south of Panama City as they circle it onboard a Boeing 767 at 37,000 feet. (Courtesy of Santiago Borja)

    Storm photography “takes a lot of luck and a lot of trial and error,” according to Mr. Borja. Since the cockpit is bordered by high-quality glass windows that don’t produce much glare, this becomes an advantage for him. However, other variables such as light are beyond his control.

    “The more light, the more difficult [it is] to capture a storm,” he said. “Sometimes with a full moon or intense city lights, the scenery is fantastic but very challenging to capture.”

    A furious storm approaches Panama City as Mr. Borja and his pilot fly away from both of them. (Courtesy of Santiago Borja)

    The humble storm photographer has always been willing to learn more about his craft.

    “I have greatly expanded my photographic knowledge and practice thanks to the people I’ve met through this journey,“ Mr. Borja said. ”I’ve had the opportunity to talk to great photographers, who have taught me some great lessons.”

    Nighttime storms look the coolest, but it doesn’t mean we don’t find daytime activity as well. (Courtesy of Santiago Borja)

    He advises up-and-coming storm photographers to learn the skills of photography well but not to take those guidelines as rigid rules, or they risk limiting their creativity.

    “I was taught that you cannot take a long exposure from a moving airplane with a handheld camera, and yet, I managed to come up with a strategy to make it work,” he said.

    (Courtesy of Santiago Borja)

    In sharing his spectacular images with the world, he wants people to enjoy nature and all it has to offer.

    “We live more and more inside our human-made structures and environments,“ Mr. Borja said. ”I deeply enjoy flying and looking at our planet from a distance where we humans are imperceptible.

    “Too often we forget to look up and enjoy the awesome views that nature is giving us for free.”

    Early morning descent into Quito with a close view of Cotopaxi Volcano. (Courtesy of Santiago Borja)

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/15/2024 – 22:10

  • China Trumps US As Most 'Diplomatic' Nation In The World…
    China Trumps US As Most ‘Diplomatic’ Nation In The World…

    Can you guess which country has the most embassies worldwide? It’s not the United States (military bases are another story)…

    According to the Global Diplomacy Index by the Lowy Institute, Visual Capitalist‘s Marcus Lu reports that China leads with 173 embassies around the world, eclipsing the U.S. (168) by just five more foreign posts.

    Former colonial powers, France (158) and the UK (156) rank third and fourth respectively. Japan (152) rounds out the top five.

    The index notes some key findings in the regional footprint of all these foreign posts as well.

    For example, China has a larger diplomatic presence in Africa, East Asia, and the Pacific, while the U.S. leads in the Americas, Europe, and South Asia. This reflects the two superpowers’ trade and economic ties as well.

    Meanwhile, Türkiye and India have grown their diplomatic networks the most in recent years. Interestingly, both countries prioritized Africa in their new outreach. In fact, India is a key export destination for many African countries.

    Russia meanwhile had to close 14 foreign missions since it invaded Ukraine in 2022, slipping two ranking spots between 2017 and 2022.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/15/2024 – 21:35

  • The Crises And Sacrifices Yet To Come
    The Crises And Sacrifices Yet To Come

    Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via Substack,

    The sense that we’re approaching a tipping point into a crisis with no easy resolution is pervasive, a sense that beneath the veneer of normalcy (the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates and that will fix everything), we sense the precariousness of this brittle normalcy.

    While many are uneasily scanning the horizon for geopolitical crises, others see the crisis emerging here at home, possibly a political crisis or a financial crisis that ensnares us all.

    Few look at the decay of our social order as the source of crisis. Few seem to notice that corruption has become so normalized that we don’t even recognize the ubiquity and depth of our corruption; we tell ourselves that this isn’t corruption, it’s just healthy self-interest, the “invisible hand” of the market magically organizing our economy to optimize efficiency and productivity. This provides cover for our worship of self-interest, a polite phrase for limitless greed.

    While the media glorifies illusions of salvation and grandeur (AI!), few look at what’s been lost in the decay of our social order, a list that starts with sacrifice for the common good and civic virtue.

    The American Dream has a peculiarly truncated vision of sacrifice: we make individual sacrifices to advance our personal goals, but sacrifices for the common good are not part of the Dream: sacrifices for the sake of our fellow citizens are at best unnecessary and at worst a waste of money, something only chumps fall for.

    The Smart Money spends a fortune evading taxes, as part of the prevailing ethos: Get rich by whatever means are necessary and let the Devil take the hindmost.

    What few seem to have noticed is specific classes of the citizenry have already been sacrificed to clear the path for limitless greed and corruption to reap the spoils. These classes include the majority of the citizenry, the bottom 90%, though the burdens of the systemic cannibalization / predation have fallen most heavily on the bottom 50%, whose share of the nation’s financial wealth is effectively signal noise: 2.6%.

    The generational divide is equally stark: Boomers hold 51% of household wealth, while Millennials hold a mere 9%.

    The divide between wage earners and owners of capital is staggering, yet of little interest to the financial media: Labor’s share of gross domestic income (GDI) has declined for decades, resulting in the transfer of $149 trillion from wage earners to owners of capital:

    The sacrifices yet to come will fall on everyone, but they will fall most heavily on capital as capital has scooped up the vast majority of the financial gains for the past 45 years. The owners of capital are already whining, as if the addition of $50 trillion to their wealth in the past four years is their birthright, the legitimate rewards of their brilliant creation of stupendous gains in productivity rather than the illegitimate gains of a centrally planned bubble that enriched the few at the expense of the many

    We are reluctant to face the consequences of our corruption and our vastly unequal economy. The dynamics of our ability to rationalize away the coming crisis are crystalized in this graphic composed by Dave Pollard in his post Why We Cannot Prevent Collapse:

    In summary, we are fixated on the short-term, enamored by our own power, intoxicated by normalization and conditioned to being “saved”, confident that our salvation will be delivered via a painless central bank “save” should anything threaten to overturn our apple cart.

    Financial podcaster Emerson Fersch asks a cogent question: what catalyst will finally tip the system into disorderly incoherence? My answer is the core of our recent podcast, Crisis, Sacrifice and the New Economy.

    I don’t have a crisp answer that fits in a Tweet or a Tik-Tok video because any prediction is nothing more than a guess due to the nature of the global economic system: an open, (i.e. emergent) tightly bound system that has veered far from equilibrium and is prone to sudden drops into chaotic disorder in which there are no guarantees that the previous stability / equilibrium can be restored.

    We know a few things that offer some minimal guidance. We know that in complex, highly interconnected /tightly bound systems, small perturbances can generate large effects.

    We also know that should events occur faster than the system’s stabilizing feedbacks can respond, the system is highly prone to collapse.

    We also know that humans don’t change anything that requires exposure to open-ended risk and sacrifice until there is no other choice.

    Lastly, we know that the timing of finally embracing risk and sacrifice as the only option left is exquisitely sensitive: finally caving in a moment too late leads to the system collapsing beyond recovery. When this moment arrives, who will be ready and who will resist, rationalize and prevaricate until it’s too late?

    When we’re finally ready to bargain–OK, we’ll sacrifice a bit–it’s too late to stop the whirlwind.

    Podcasts: Crisis, Sacrifice and the New Economy, with Emerson Fersch (1 hour)

    Financial Nihilism, Inflation & The Collapsing American Dream.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/15/2024 – 21:00

  • "Freaking Brilliant New Trend": Write "Vote Trump, End Taxes On Tips!" On Server Checks
    “Freaking Brilliant New Trend”: Write “Vote Trump, End Taxes On Tips!” On Server Checks

    About a week ago, former President Trump floated the idea of canceling taxes on tips at a campaign rally in Las Vegas. By Thursday of last week, Republican lawmakers were delighted by the idea and how it could generate new Trump voters ahead of the November elections.

    “This tips thing was genius,” Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) said, who was quoted by The Hill, adding, “[Trump] was like, I’d love to tell you it was based on a bunch of research, but it was based on a discussion with a waitress who said, ‘They’re coming after my tips.'”

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    Cramer said these service workers are “just feeling this assault on their tips” by the Biden administration. This is also happening as Bidenomics inflation crushes the working poor into oblivion. 

    On Friday, Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY.) wrote on X, “This week Trump suggested we shouldn’t tax tips. He’s right. Next week I’ll be re-introducing @RonPaul’s original Tax Free Tips Act to eliminate taxes on tips!” 

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    Trump’s new push to onboard some of the nearly 16 million people working in the leisure and hospitality comes as President Biden’s polling data continues to slide – and the president with possible dementia continues to stun the nation—literally every week. 

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    What’s happening on the ground and across the country at restaurants and bars are Trump voters informing service industry workers about how voting for the former president will allow for ‘No Tax On Tips.’  

    This is a brilliant strategy that is spreading like wildfire on X: 

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    All of this shows how Democrats are out of touch with the nation’s vibe. Radical leftists in the White House are too focused on funding endless wars, such as the one in Ukraine, the woke indoctrination of children, catering to illegal aliens rather than voters, not enforcing common sense law and order in cities, and pushing for more taxes and bigger government.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/15/2024 – 20:25

  • Prior COVID-19 Infection May Protect Against Common Colds: Study
    Prior COVID-19 Infection May Protect Against Common Colds: Study

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    This scanning electron microscope image shows the novel coronavirus (orange), which causes COVID-19 disease, isolated from a patient in the U.S., emerging from the surface of cells (green) cultured in the lab. Photo published on Feb. 13, 2020. (NIAID-RML)

    People with a history of COVID-19 infection are better protected against common colds than people who received a COVID-19 vaccine, according to a new study.

    Infection and vaccination triggered similar antibody responses in study participants, but T cell responses targeting endemic coronaviruses, which cause some common colds, were found only in people with past infection with COVID-19, which is caused by the virus SARS-CoV-2. The study was published in the journal Science Translational Medicine on June 12.

    “Prior SARS-CoV-2 infection as compared to COVID-19 vaccination associates with lower incidence of disease from highly related but not identical coronaviruses, namely the ‘common cold’ coronaviruses,” Dr. Manish Sagar, a physician at Boston Medical Center and one of the researchers, told The Epoch Times via email.

    The lack of protection conferred by vaccines may stem from them not including certain parts of the coronavirus genome, he added.

    Researchers analyzed data from 501 people with past infection, about half of whom had received a vaccine; 1,463 people who received a full COVID-19 vaccine course and had no past infection; and 2,869 with no history of infection or vaccination.

    Just two of the 275 people, or 0.7 percent, with past infection and no vaccination contracted symptomatic endemic coronaviruses, compared to 3 percent of people deemed fully vaccinated, the researchers found.

    About 1.4 percent of the people with past infection who were vaccinated experienced common colds with symptoms, as well as 1.8 percent of the people with no exposure to SARS-CoV-2.

    The initial results indicated that COVID-19 vaccination may increase the risk of contracting common colds, but adjustments made for the differences between the three groups showed that while vaccination did not protect against common colds, it did not increase that risk, the researchers said.

    Data from the people was examined retrospectively. It came from people who presented to Boston Medical Center from Nov. 30, 2020, through Oct. 8, 2021, for clinical care.

    Limitations of the paper included the possibility of misclassification of some people due to them possibly having contracted COVID-19 without symptoms while being counted in one of the groups without prior infection.

    The work was funded by U.S. National Institutes of Health grants and funds from the Massachusetts Consortium on Pathogen Readiness. The only conflict of interest disclosed was one author having a financial interest in Quanterix, a company developing an antibody test.

    May Help Improve Vaccines

    The data from the paper may help researchers improve COVID-19 vaccines, the researchers said.

    “New coronaviruses could emerge in the human population in the future, and our hope is that this study provides insight into how immunity against SARS-CoV-2 could protect against severe disease caused by these unknown future coronaviruses,“ Dr. David Bean, a researcher at the Boston University Chobanian & Avedisian School of Medicine and one of the authors, said in a statement. ”The goal of our study is to provide this information to the scientific community, and thus inform vaccine development now, before new coronaviruses have emerged.”

    Because COVID-19 vaccines don’t work as well as hoped against the illness, some scientists have been working on pan-coronavirus vaccines that would protect against all coronaviruses.

    Most currently available COVID-19 vaccines only contain the spike protein from SARS-CoV-2.

    “Our studies suggest incorporation on other parts of the coronavirus genome, such as non-structural portions (something besides spike and nucleocapsid) may improve cellular responses,” Dr. Sagar said. “These cellular responses won’t necessarily prevent infection with highly related but not identical coronaviruses but it may reduce disease severity after infection.”

    The researchers previously found that people who had recent infections to endemic coronaviruses were better off against COVID-19, suggesting that the immune responses triggered by the viruses helped protect against COVID-19 infection.

    Another group of researchers said in a separate paper that the T cells produced when the body fights common cold viruses provided cross-protection against SARS-CoV-2.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/15/2024 – 19:50

  • Oakland Reparations Committee Demands $5 Million Just To Write Plan
    Oakland Reparations Committee Demands $5 Million Just To Write Plan

    A ‘reparations panel’ for Alameda County, whose largest city is Oakland, has demanded $5 million to come up with a plan for reparations over racism, and say it will take them two years to do it.

    Alameda County Supervisor Nate Miley speaks during a community celebration of Alameda County Supervisor Wilma Chan and her legacy at the Oakland Museum of California in Oakland, Calif., on Wednesday, Dec. 7, 2021. (Ray Chavez/Bay Area News Group)

    According to NPR affiliate KQED, the 15-member commission was assembled in March of 2023 to ‘study anti-black racism’ and come up with a plan to compensate allegedly harmed residents. We should note, the commission was supposed to have completed its work by this July. Instead, as KQED notes, “it has hardly started.” (plus the $5 million thing)

    Nate Miley, president of the Board of Supervisors and author of the resolution that created the Reparations Commission, blamed the pandemic and a months-long recall process of Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price, which is set for a vote this November.

    “I didn’t think it would take as long to get people appointed,” Miley told the outlet. “We do want to have a sense of urgency, and that’s why I was kind of looking at a year and a half, but maybe I might have been a bit ambitious.”

    The committee was the combination of two resolutions by the Board of Supervisors from 2011 and 2020. The first apologized for slavery and racial segregation, while the second vowed to examine the role that Alameda county played in perpetuating discrimination against black residents, and then come up with a plan to show them the money.

    “We are trying not to recreate the wheel,” said Debra Gore-Mann, president and CEO of Oakland racial justice organization the Greenlining Institute, who asked supervisors for a dedicated staff to complete their work, and a new deadline of June 30, 2026. Oh, and the $5 million.

    The commission also asked for a budget of about $5 million, dwarfing the initial budget allocation of approximately $51,000. The requested budget would support research, public outreach and community listening sessions over the next two years. Commission members currently receive a $50 stipend for each meeting they attend. -KQED

    “I think $5 million is a hefty amount of funding,” said Miley, who noted that the county’s budget deficit is projected to reach between $70 million and $100 million this year – and that even getting the board to respond and other support requests could take months.

    Last year, Milley suggested that reparations was not a top priority.

    “Quite frankly I think that’s not the lowest hanging fruit,” he said. “My feeling is, trying to get a check in the hands of African Americans is going to be a steep hill to climb.”

    During an Alameda County Board of Supervisors meeting in March of 2023, a vocal minority of residents stood vehemently opposed to the idea – calling reparations a “ponzi scheme,” a “robbery,” “an insult to the Black community,” “an insult to Martin Luther King,” “Marxist,” a way to “monetize the victim mentality” and even a path to “further enslavement.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/15/2024 – 19:15

  • "No Place in the Public Discourse": The Connecticut Bar Association Warns Lawyers Critical Of Trump Prosecutions
    “No Place in the Public Discourse”: The Connecticut Bar Association Warns Lawyers Critical Of Trump Prosecutions

    Authored by Jonathan Turley via jonathanturley.org,

    This week, I have received emails from Connecticut bar members over a message posted by President Maggie Castinado, President-Elect James T. (Tim) Shearin, and Vice President Emily A. Gianquinto warning them about criticizing the prosecutions of former President Donald Trump. The message from the bar leadership is chilling for those lawyers who view cases like the one in Manhattan as a raw political prosecution. While the letter does not outright state that such criticism will be considered unethical conduct, it states that the criticism has “no place in the public discourse” and calls on members to speak publicly in support of the integrity of these legal proceedings.

    The statement begins by warning members that “words matter” but then leaves the ramifications for bar members dangling on how it might matter to them. They simply note that some comments will be viewed as “cross[ing] the line from criticism to dangerous rhetoric.”

    According to the Connecticut Bar, it is now considered reckless and unprofessional to make analogies to show trials or to question the integrity of the legal system or the judges in such cases.

    For example, criticizing Judge Juan Merchan for refusing to recuse from the case is considered beyond the pale. Many lawyers believe that his political contributions to Biden and his daughter’s major role as a Democratic fundraiser and activist should have prompted Merchan to remove himself (and any appearance of a conflict). I have been more critical of his rulings, which I believe were both biased and wrong.

    Yet, the Bar is warning lawyers that such comments can cross the line. The letter assures members that they are free to criticize but warn that attacking the ethics of a judge or the motivations behind these cases is dangerous and could spark violence.

    I have previously denounced overheated rhetoric and share the concern over how such rage rhetoric can encourage violence. After the verdict, I immediately encouraged people not to yield to their anger, but to trust our legal system. I believe that the verdict in New York may ultimately be overturned. I also noted that I do not blame the jury but rather the judge and the prosecutors for an unfounded and unfair trial.

    Of course, the concern over rage rhetoric runs across our political spectrum. While rarely criticized in the media, we have seen an escalation of reckless rhetoric from the left. For example,  Georgetown Law Professor Josh Chafetz declared that “when the mob is right, some (but not all!) more aggressive tactics are justified.”

    My concern is not with the plea for lawyers to take care that their comments do not encourage such “aggressive tactics.” The problem is the suggestion that lawyers are acting somehow unprofessionally in denouncing what many view as a two-tier system of justice and the politicalization of our legal system.

    Like many, I believe that the Manhattan case was a flagrant example of such weaponization of the legal system and should be denounced by all lawyers. It is a return, in my view, to the type of political prosecution once common in this country.

    For those lawyers who view such prosecutions as political, they are speaking out in defense of what they believe is the essence of blind justice in America. What is “reckless” to the Connecticut Bar is righteous to others. Notably, the Bar officials did not write to denounce attacks on figures like Bill Barr or claims that the Justice Department was rigging justice during the Trump years.

    Likewise, the letter focuses on critics of the Trump prosecutions and not the continued attacks on conservative jurists like Justice Samuel Alito. It has never published warnings about those calling conservative justices profanities, attacking their religion, or labeling them “partisan hacks” or other even “insurrectionist sympathizers.” Liberal activists have been calling for stopping conservative jurists “by any means necessary.”

    In Connecticut, Sen. Richard Blumenthal has warned conservative justices to rule correctly or face “seismic changes.” That did not appear to worry the bar. Likewise, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer also declared in front of the Supreme Court “I want to tell you, Gorsuch, I want to tell you, Kavanaugh, you have released the whirlwind, and you will pay the price.”

    The letter goes further and suggests that lawyers should speak publicly in support of trials like the one in Manhattan, a view that ignores the deep misgivings over the motivations and means used in New York to target an unpopular figure in this city. You have the top Bar officials calling on lawyers to take a public position that is opposed by many lawyers and citizens in defending the integrity of these prosecutions. Imagine the response if the Idaho Bar called on its lawyers to speak out against these cases and declared that it is reckless or unprofessional to defend them.

    I expect that, in the very liberal Bar of Connecticut, the letter is hardly needed. Indeed, this letter is likely to be quite popular.  Yet, I would have thought that Bar officials would have taken greater care to respect the divergent opinions on these trials and the need to avoid any statements that might chill the exercise of free speech.

    Ironically, the letter only reinforced the view of a legal system that is maintaining a political orthodoxy and agenda. These officials declare that it is now unprofessional or reckless for lawyers to draw historical comparisons to show trials or to question the motives or ethics underlying these cases. They warn lawyers not to “sow distrust in the public for the courts where it does not belong.” Yet, many believe that there is an alarming threat to our legal system and that distrust is warranted in light of prosecution like the one in Manhattan.

    As discussed in my new book, The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage, critics of political prosecutions under the Crown and during the Adams Administrations were often threatened with disbarment or other legal actions for questioning the integrity or motives of judges or prosecutors. It is not enough to say “well that was then and this is now.” The point is that the Bar Association also has a duty to protect the core rights that define our legal system, particularly the right of free speech.

    Again, these officials are not threatening Bar action against critics of these cases. However, as evidenced by the emails in my inbox, it is being taken as a warning by many who hold misgivings over these prosecutions.

    Our legal system has nothing to fear from criticism. Indeed, free speech strengthens our system by exposing divisions and encouraging dialogue. It is orthodoxy and speech intolerance that represent the most serious threats to that system.

    Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro Professor of Public Interest Law at George Washington University. He is the author of “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage” (Simon and Schuster, 2024).

    Here is the message in its entirety:

    Dear Members,

    Words matter. Reckless words attacking the integrity of our judicial system matter even more.

    In the wake of the recent trial and conviction of former President Donald Trump, public officials have issued statements claiming that the trial was a “sham,” a “hoax,” and “rigged”; our justice system is “corrupt and rigged”; the judge was “corrupt” and “highly unethical”; and, that the jury was “partisan” and “precooked.” Others claimed the trial was “America’s first communist show trial”—a reference to historic purges of high-ranking communist officials that were used to eliminate political threats.

    These claims are unsubstantiated and reckless. Such statements can provoke acts of violence against those serving the public as employees of the judicial branch. Indeed, such statements have resulted in threats to those fulfilling their civic obligations by sitting on the jury, as evidenced by social media postings seeking to identify the names and addresses of the anonymous jurors and worse, in several cases urging that the jurors be shot or hanged. As importantly, such statements strike at the very integrity of the third branch of government and sow distrust in the public for the courts where it does not belong.

    To be clear, free speech includes criticism. There is and should be no prohibition on commenting on the decision to bring the prosecution, the prosecution’s legal theory, the judge’s rulings, or the verdict itself. But headlines’ grabbing, baseless allegations made by public officials cross the line from criticism to dangerous rhetoric. They have no place in the public discourse.

    It is up to us, as lawyers, to defend the courts and our judges. As individuals, and as an Association, we cannot let the charged political climate in which we live dismantle the third branch of government. To remain silent renders us complicit in that effort.

    Respect for the judicial system is essential to our democracy. The CBA condemns unsupported attacks on the integrity of that system.

    Sincerely,

    Maggie Castinado

    President,

    Connecticut Bar Association

    James T. (Tim) Shearin

    President-Elect,

    Connecticut Bar Association

    Emily A. Gianquinto

    Vice President,

    Connecticut Bar Association

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/15/2024 – 18:40

  • Condemned Cali House Spurs Bidding War And Eventually Sells For $755,000
    Condemned Cali House Spurs Bidding War And Eventually Sells For $755,000

    If you’re looking for signs that the California real estate market is cooling down, this probably isn’t the article for you.

    That’s because this past week the NY Post reported that a condemned house in Silicon Valley that’s ‘unfit for human occupancy’ just sold for three quarters of a million dollars after an intense bidding war. 

    The property at 2161 Elliot St. in San Jose, a modest seven-bedroom, two-bathroom home sold for $755,000, surpassing its $699,000 asking price. 

    The Post reported that it was purchased by a developer, will be redeveloped with an architect and resold.

    The bright teal house was built in 1900, the report says. It had an unrenovated interior with scuffed walls, a broken door, and dated appliances. 

    It was also deemed unfit for occupancy due to numerous code violations, and Santa Clara County condemned it. Despite this, its prime location on a nearly 4,000-square-foot corner lot in Burbank drew eager buyers, highlighting the area’s strong real estate market, said Compass agent Robert Gosalvez.

    He told the Post: “Due to its prime location and zoning, this property not only attracted attention from DIYers, builders and investors, but also from those seeking mixed-use properties all eager to capitalize on the opportunity.” 

    “The level of interest while on the market was substantial, leading to the distribution of dozens of disclosure packages and resulting in seven offers, all of which were either cash or have access to hard money loans,” he continued. 

    “I believe in a couple years or less, we will see a modern, attached, multi unit property on this lot,” he concluded.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/15/2024 – 18:05

  • House Passes $883 Billion Annual Defense Bill With Anti-DEI Amendments
    House Passes $883 Billion Annual Defense Bill With Anti-DEI Amendments

    Authored by Jackson Richman and Ryan Morgan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The U.S. Capitol building in Washington on June 10, 2024. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times)

    The House of Representatives on June 14 passed its annual defense policy bill with GOP-approved culture war amendments that are certain to put the House on a collision course with the Democrat-controlled Senate.

    The final tally on the 2025 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) vote was 217–199, with six Democrats voting in favor and three Republicans voting against.

    The $883.7 billion bill, which has more than 1,000 pages, provides continued funding for military aircraft, ships, vehicles, and weapons programs. It also includes a 4.5 percent pay raise for U.S. service members and about 15 percent in additional pay for some junior enlisted service members, bringing their overall pay boost to nearly 20 percent under this year’s budget.

    The NDAA includes culture war provisions such as eliminating diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) positions within the Department of Defense (DoD) and imposing a hiring freeze on DEI positions in the DoD. There is a measure to block DoD funding for abortion-related expenses, another that bars the DoD from funding or providing gender transition surgeries and hormone treatments, as well as measures to prohibit the DoD’s education arm from purchasing or displaying material that “promotes radical gender ideology or pornographic content.”

    The House version also includes an amendment, introduced by Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.), that prohibits the Pentagon from contracting with entities that have engaged in boycotts of Israel and would bar the department from selling products made by entities that boycott Israel at any of its commissary stores or military exchanges.

    Another amendment, introduced by Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), would block the DoD from allocating funds for various climate-action-related executive orders issued by President Joe Biden.

    Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said the House-passed bill will find no traction in the upper chamber.

    “The legislation coming out of the House today is loaded with anti-LGBTQ, anti-choice, anti-environment, and other divisive amendments guaranteed not to pass the Senate,” he said in a statement.

    “As we move forward with this year’s NDAA process, both sides will have to work together to pass bipartisan legislation that honors and respects all who serve in defense of our nation.”

    While the defense bill has traditionally passed in a bipartisan fashion, recent years have seen a marked increase in partisan amendments that are viewed as “poison pills” by the opposing party.

    The Senate version of $911.8 billion does not include the culture war amendments. Like the House, it does include support for military operations in the Indo-Pacific, including Taiwan, a 4.5 percent increase for service members. Unlike the House, however, the Senate would require women to sign up for the Selective Service System, the U.S. draft program that has not been in use since the Vietnam War.

    The House and Senate must now come up with a final bill that passes both chambers before it is sent to President Biden for his signature. The last NDAA, which was negotiated by leaders in the House and Senate, stripped most of the culture war amendments that had passed in the House version.

    “As we confront increasingly hostile threats from Communist China, Russia, and Iran, we must provide our military with all the tools they need to defend our nation and deter our enemies,” said House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) in a statement following the House NDAA’s passage.

    “This year’s NDAA will refocus our military on its core mission of defending America and its interests across the globe, fund the deployment of the National Guard to the southwest border, expedite innovation and reduce the acquisition timeline for new weaponry, support our allies, and strengthen our nuclear posture and missile defense programs.”

    Senate Armed Service Committee Chairman Jack Reed (D-R.I.) voted against the version that came out of his committee on June 14. He released a statement that said, “It includes a funding increase that cannot be appropriated without breaking lawful spending caps and causing unintended harm to our military.”

    The House NDAA is $12 billion less than the $895 billion cap for defense spending for the 2025 fiscal year under the debt ceiling deal that was agreed to last year while the Senate version is $16.8 billion more than that.

    On June 11, the White House issued a statement of administration policy laying out President Biden’s objections to several of the bill’s provisions.

    The White House expressed disappointment that the current version of the House NDAA provides $700 million less than the president requested for the annual shipbuilding budget and calls for funding one less ship than he had hoped for.

    President Biden also signaled his opposition to House provisions that would limit DEI programs.

    “The prohibitions regarding DEI efforts would impede DoD’s and Federal agencies’ ability to recruit and retain the diverse perspectives, experiences, and skill sets that are foundational to the strength of the Federal workforce,” the White House said.

    “Creating and supporting programs and policies that embrace DEI fosters workforce cultures that are inclusive of all individuals.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/15/2024 – 17:30

  • War On Nation's Food Supply?: Idaho Restricts Water To 500,000 Acres Of Farmland 
    War On Nation’s Food Supply?: Idaho Restricts Water To 500,000 Acres Of Farmland 

    In late May, Idaho Department of Water Resources Director Mathew Weaver issued a curtailment order requiring 6,400 junior groundwater rights holders who pump off the Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer to shut off their spigots.

    Idaho Gov. Brad Little issued a statement following the order on May 30, “Water curtailment is never desired, but the director must follow Idaho law and the Constitution in issuing this order.” 

    Brian Murdock, an East Idaho farmer, said the water curtailment affects 500,000 acres, which equates to roughly 781 square miles of farmland. 

    “Well, as you said, the state of Idaho and the Idaho Department of Water Resources has issued this curtailment of 500,000 acres. And to help put that in perspective, that’s basically 781 square miles of farm ground that is being taken out of production,” Murdock told the hosts of Fox News. 

    The grain and potato farmer continued, “And, of course, the worst problem is this is happening during a very plentiful water year. We have the reservoirs [that] are completely full, and when I mean full, they’re dang near breaking. The rivers are running as high as they possibly can. Just trying to keep those dams from breaking.” 

    In eastern Idaho, groundwater users with junior water rights breached the 2016 agreement in 2021 and 2022. Currently, Gov. Little, the lieutenant governor, the Director of Water Resources, and representatives from groundwater and surface water user groups are discussing a new deal. The plan is to strike a new agreement before the curtailment dries up the farmland. 

    Murdock told co-hosts Dagen McDowell and Sean Duffy that his family’s century-old farm faces a $3 million loss due to the state-issued order. 

    “This is the largest curtailment in the history of the United States as far as farm ground,” Murdock said in a video posted on X. 

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    In a commentary piece in the local paper Idaho Capital Sun, farmer Adam Young had a lot of questions about the state’s move to inflict pain on farmers:

    It’s hard to understand why the department chooses to be so openly hostile to groundwater irrigators or why they decided to inflict widespread, massive curtailment on the state in a year when water is abundantly plentiful. This is not what sound resource management looks like. It’s time for Idaho’s elected officials to step up and demonstrate true leadership on this crucial issue. This is not how Idaho water law, which relies on both “priority of time” and “the public policy of reasonable use of water,” was ever intended to work.

    Some X users believe the water curtailment is happening around the time as the governor commissions a new cobalt mining operation in the state. 

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    We must question whether a much larger, more insidious agenda is at play here. Is this part of the war on the food supply?

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/15/2024 – 16:55

  • RFK Jr. Says US Should 'Vastly Scale Back' Its Military Budget
    RFK Jr. Says US Should ‘Vastly Scale Back’ Its Military Budget

    Authored by Jeff Louderback via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks at the Nixon Library in Yorba Linda, Calif., on June 12, 2024. (John Fredricks/The Epoch Times)

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an outspoken critic of U.S. involvement in “forever wars,” reiterated his view that the nation should scale back its military presence abroad and shift its focus to domestic programs, during an address at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum on June 12.

    Mr. Kennedy did not mention the Russia–Ukraine or the Israel–Hamas war, but he said that the United States should “vastly scale back the military budget” and proposed a 50 percent reduction in military spending if he is elected president.

    This would lead to a “stronger, smarter, better targeted national defense,” he said, and would benefit the U.S. economy by reallocating that money to reducing the $34 trillion national debt and addressing domestic issues such as education, small-business development, and infrastructure.

    “If we use those savings to rebuild our country in every way, we will reverse spending that is a constant drain on our nation’s vitality,” he said.

    Mr. Kennedy appeared at the venue as part of the Richard Nixon Foundation’s Presidential Policy Perspective series, which has featured former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, former Vice President Mike Pence, and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson.

    Democratic National Committee spokesperson Matt Corridoni condemned Mr. Kennedy’s plan to cut defense spending.

    “With Russia, North Korea, and the Chinese Communist Party all watching, RFK Jr. is more than eager to peddle Kremlin talking point. Just like Donald Trump, he can’t be trusted to stand up for allies and against totalitarianism,” Mr. Corridoni said in a statement released after the address.

    Mr. Kennedy chastised U.S. foreign policy, stating that he believes it’s “stuck in a world that doesn’t exist” because the country believes “we’re still the world’s only superpower and can bend any nation to its will.”

    “The foundation of a nation’s strength is the sound of its infrastructure, the integrity of its government, economic strength, and respect of choices abroad. We have to accept the emergence of other great powers in the world,” he said.

    During his speech, Mr. Kennedy said, “We don’t need 800 bases abroad.” The United States spends more on its military budget than “the next 10 nations combined,” he noted.

    Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks at the Nixon Library in Yorba Linda, Calif., on June 12, 2024. (John Fredricks/The Epoch Times)

    Since the early stages of his presidential campaign, Mr. Kennedy has urged President Biden to negotiate a peaceful end to the Russia–Ukraine war, which started when Russia invaded the neighboring nation in February 2022.

    “Russia is not going to lose this war. Russia can’t afford it,” he told The Epoch Times in September. “It would be like us losing a war to Mexico.”

    Mr. Kennedy has said he’s sympathetic to the Ukrainian cause and that Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded the country illegally, but he has criticized the United States for its role, saying there had been multiple missed opportunities to peacefully settle the conflict and that “we have turned it into a proxy war between Russia and the United States.”

    He believes the Russia–Ukraine war is one of the root causes of the United States’ current economic problems and that the U.S. government has an “addiction to war.”

    “We’ve spent $8 trillion on wars since 9/11. If we kept that money home, we would’ve had child care for every American. We would have free college education for every American. We’d be able to pay for our Social Security system,” he told The Epoch Times.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/15/2024 – 16:20

  • Crew Abandons Sinking Bulk Carrier In Red Sea After Kamikaze Drone Boat Attack 
    Crew Abandons Sinking Bulk Carrier In Red Sea After Kamikaze Drone Boat Attack 

    Turmoil in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden intensified this week as Iran-backed Houthi rebels launched a series of attacks on commercial vessels traversing the critical maritime chokepoint. In a bold new move, the rebels deployed a suicide drone boat that slammed into the stern of a bulk carrier, paralyzing the vessel and forcing the crew to abandon the ship. 

    The drone boat attack on commodity-hauling bulk carrier “Tutor” was first reported on Wednesday. By Friday, the crew of the vessel was “evacuated by military authorities,” according to the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations. 

    UKMTO said, “The vessel has been abandoned and is drifting in the vicinity of the last reported position 14°20’00” N 041°56’00” E.” 

    Filipino-based media outlet ABS-CBN News spoke with Department of Migrant Workers Secretary Hans Cacdac, who said 21 of the 22 Filipino seafarers aboard the Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned, and operated bulk carrier were rescued. He did not specify which military rescued the crew. However, Bloomberg reports that a US Navy ship conducted an extraction operation at the end of the week.

    “The ship was adrift in the southern Red Sea,” Cacdac told reporters, adding one missing crew member is likely dead in the engine room. This is the area where the drone boat struck the bulk carrier. 

    Bloomberg said the ship is taking on water, and a salvage company has dispatched two tugboats to rescue it. 

    ABS-CBN News posted a video onboard the vessel before the extraction. 

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    Like security firm Ambrey, we have told readers this was the first time Houthis used remote-controlled, water-borne explosives.

    One commodity research firm with a high focus on oil/gas flows in the Middle East told us this won’t be the last time the Houthis use kamikaze drone boats against commercial vessels.

    In a separate report, Bloomberg cites US officials who believe Houthis are expanding “international partnerships with other militant groups as part of their campaign to disrupt global shipping and protest the Israel-Hamas war.” 

    Houthi’s aim in disrupting maritime chokepoints is to create a supply shock for the global economy.

    Containerized freight shipping rates are already soaring, and logjams are being reported at some of the world’s top ports. 

    The Houthis have only been emboldened by a weak Biden administration whose disastrous foreign policy decisions have unleashed fires across the world. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/15/2024 – 15:45

  • Nvidia, Apple And GameStop Are The Entire Stock Market Right Now…And That's Dangerous
    Nvidia, Apple And GameStop Are The Entire Stock Market Right Now…And That’s Dangerous

    Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

    Everybody knows it but nobody is giving it any serious consideration: the entire market is being driven by Nvidia, Apple and even GameStop. And when one, if not all three of these names starts to experience some selling, they are likely taking the whole market with it.

    I have been making note of the fact that Apple and Nvidia could be the market’s black swans for the better part of a year now. And forget about cash on the sidelines eventually drying up as a result of savings running out, the market is also not taking into account multiple looming red flags for these names.

    Zero Hedge has been all over the story of “bad” market breadth that no one on Wall Street seems to want to notice or talk about out loud. They wrote on X today:

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    For Apple, the company remains in the crosshairs of a massive antitrust investigation, the likes of which threw a cold blanket on Microsoft for the better part of a decade in the early 2000s. This is a very real risk that looms under the surface of the company’s buybacks, which are likely a large portion of the bid now. The company’s most recent ‘innovation’, the Vision Pro has also all but disappeared from public discourse after receiving tepid reviews.

    Also, Apple and Nvidia share something in common: their valuations, at 33x and 77x ttm earnings, respectively, are extremely aggressive. There is a far better case for an air pocket under these valuations than there is over them. So on top of 5.5% rates, bone dry consumer savings, record high credit card debt, unmarked commercial real estate books and continued debilitating inflation, there’s valuation risk. 

    🔥 80% OFF: Since it’s officially summer, I’m going to offer up my largest discount of the year for Fringe Finance: Get 80% off forever

    And GameStop…well, what better weathervane could their be for the unsophisticated money in the market? As it swings wildly, so swing the last few desperate dollars of retail traders, many of whom are trying for one last “YOLO” in the market with whatever little cash they have left. In the meantime, the company remains a loss-making nightmare with nearly zero fundamental case as its foundation, but for the hoarde of cash it now has and may use to acquire bolt-on acquisitions of companies who aren’t one step from death’s door. 

    And yesterday Zero Hedge noted that an equal weighted S&P – in other words, what the index would do if all components had the same weight and were being driven by Nvidia and Apple, which make up nearly 10% of the index – would be flat since February. 

    If these two names were to fall in tandem, it could be the fuse that finally winds up killing this current bull market.

    Goldman noted after Thursday’s session this week that the NASDAQ finished the day +0.57% despite an astounding 70% of the names in the index trading lower on the session. 

    And the Nvidia cycle of driving the market looks ponzi-ish, one response on X pointed out earlier this week: 

    “40% of S&P 500 gains are due to just $NVDA. As weighting goes up, more capital must flow in (b/c of benchmarking), further driving price up. US government is entirely reliant on equity market going up (capital gains tax) revenue. US government is already essentially insolvent (massive debasement is required, just to service debt), and so requires an even larger amount of cap gains tax revenue, just to service existing debt load. US government can pass laws to funnel unlimited amounts of money ($52B CHIPS Act) to the very company responsible for the majority of its revenue (via cap gains on the appreciation it’s caused, which is exacerbated as the weighting increases and forces benchmarking funds to further drive up the price).”

    And round and round we go. The only thing they failed to mention in that cycle is Nancy Pelosi’s purchases of Nvidia call options, which both add to the gamma squeeze and help her pocket cash based on having knowledge of the government’s actions in the world of subsidizing their favorite industries/companies.

    Zero Hedge joked on Friday:

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    But it really didn’t seem like much of a joke. While the indexes mostly held up, social media users were pointing out enormous numbers of stocks down more than 3% on the session:

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    It was about a week ago that I wrote about Nvidia and why I thought it had become a disproportionately large risk to the overall market. The stock now represents 6.5% of the S&P 500, an astronomical amount for one name to make up a 500-name index, and appears to be hitting peak levels of hysteria, as evidenced by CEO Jensen Huang signing autographs on the breasts of women at computer shows.

    This data shows that things aren’t nearly as safe and sound as the indices may be making it seem. There is very real concentration risk in the market right now and, other than Zero Hedge, no one on financial news or mainstream media is talking about it. 

    To the extent the seven stocks plus GameStop can remain “magnificent”, the market will continue to hold up. But make no mistake about it: so goeth Apple, Nvidia and GameStop, so goeth the market. 

    QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. These positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/15/2024 – 15:10

  • Sweden Rejects New Power Cable To Germany Over Market Inefficiencies
    Sweden Rejects New Power Cable To Germany Over Market Inefficiencies

    By Julianne Geiger of OilPrice.com

    In a significant move, the Swedish government has rejected the proposed 700 MW Hansa PowerBridge subsea power connection between Sweden and Germany.

    Energy Minister Ebba Busch cited inefficiencies in the German electricity market as the primary reason for the decision, emphasizing that connecting southern Sweden—already facing an electricity production deficit—with Germany could lead to higher prices and increased market instability.

    The Hansa PowerBridge project, a collaboration between grid operators Svenska Kraftnät and Germany’s 50Hertz, aimed to facilitate the transfer of renewable energy from the Nordics to Germany. However, the Swedish government raised concerns about the current state of the German power grid. Unlike Sweden, which is divided into four power price zones to manage grid bottlenecks, Germany operates as a single power market zone. This structure has led to significant congestion, particularly in moving power from the wind-rich north to the energy-consuming south, prompting calls for a market split—a move Germany resists due to potential price hikes and industrial impact in its southern regions.

    A spokesperson from 50Hertz expressed disappointment over the missed opportunity to strengthen Europe’s internal electricity market but maintained that the Swedish decision would not affect the future security of supply and system stability within the 50Hertz network area.

    This development comes against the backdrop of Germany’s broader energy strategy. Recently, EU competition regulators gave informal approval to Germany’s plan to subsidize 10 GW of new natural gas-fired power capacity. This initiative is part of Germany’s effort to stabilize its grid amid a substantial increase in wind and solar power installations. The new gas plants, which are designed to be hydrogen-convertible, are seen as a transitional measure to ensure a stable electricity supply as the country aims for 80% renewable energy by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2045.

    The rejection of the Hansa PowerBridge underscores the complexities and challenges of integrating European energy markets, especially as nations balance renewable energy ambitions with grid stability and market efficiency.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/15/2024 – 14:35

  • Attention Cash-Strapped Americans: Goldman Finds Top Supermarket Offering The Best Grocery Deals
    Attention Cash-Strapped Americans: Goldman Finds Top Supermarket Offering The Best Grocery Deals

    In the aggregate, consumers appear to be stable, with the Biden administration touting a solid economy ahead of the November presidential elections. However, as Goldman re-acknowledged earlier this week, under the surface, low-income consumers are struggling in the era of failed Bidenomics. Given this, a separate Goldman note has pinpointed the best grocery deals among major retailers, revealing that Walmart offers the lowest prices. This new data saves folks time instead of guessing where the best deals are.

    On June 6, Goldman analysts led by Leah Jordan analyzed the prices of 38 SKUs in the dairy, frozen goods, dry grocery, HPC, and produce categories. The retailers surveyed included Walmart, Sprouts Farmers Market, Whole Foods, and Dollar General. 

    “In this note, we discuss takeaways from our June grocery pricing survey. Overall, prices were relatively stable m/m. WMT continued to have the lowest prices, while price gaps widened,” Jordan said. 

    Jordan and the other analysts find that Walmart offered consumers the lowest prices for grocery items: “WMT had the lowest prices at -15.1% vs. the group average (widened from -12.0% last month), followed by KR at -3.5% (vs -3.5% last month). WFM had the highest prices in the group at +15.4%, followed by SFM at +11.2%. KR had the highest SKU availability for the products surveyed at 38, followed by WMT at 36.”

    Walmart had the lowest prices in dairy products (-18.3%), frozen foods (-15.7%), dry grocery (-13.5%), and produce (-17.3%), while Dollar General had the lowest prices in HPC (-13.9%). On the other hand, Sprouts Farmers had the highest prices in dairy products (+19.3%), frozen foods (15.0%), and HPC (+31.8%). Whole Foods had the highest prices in dry grocery (+10.0%) and produce (+20.4%).

    Amidst an economy full of inflation landmines, one thing is sure for working-poor consumers: Walmart offers the best grocery deals, while Whole Foods does not. 

    But as we found in Walmart’s latest earnings call, higher-income consumers are trading down to the mega-retailer to find the deals. 

    Food inflation is sticky. It will linger for years. Sigh…

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/15/2024 – 13:25

  • Americans Must Criticize Our Corrupt Courts
    Americans Must Criticize Our Corrupt Courts

    Authored by Carson Holloway via RealClearWire,

    Editor’s Note: The group quota regime is a revolutionary threat which aims to overthrow the political order of the United States and the Constitution that underlies it. In its maneuvers for political power, this revolutionary enemy already operates on a set of legal and constitutional principles entirely different from those on which our country was founded. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the corrupt prosecution of President Donald Trump, and the attendant, authoritarian insistence that criticism of the machinations of “justice” is unwelcome in a democratic society.

    In the wake of his conviction in a New York court, President Trump has complained that the process was rigged against him, that the whole proceeding was a corrupt effort to persecute him with a view to influencing the 2024 presidential election. In response, many of his opponents have criticized him for undermining public confidence in our system of criminal justice and thus harming our democracy—a criticism that has been magnified by many in the media.

    These critics, however, are missing the point and undermining a principle that is in fact essential to preserving our republic: namely, that criticism of the justice system when it errs or overreaches is necessary to preserving freedom under the rule of law.

    Those who founded our nation were aware of this necessity.

    Alexander Hamilton, representing the defendant in the famous libel case People v. Croswell, warned that “the most dangerous, the most sure, the most fatal of tyrannies” operated “by selecting and sacrificing single individuals, under the mask and forms of law, by dependent and partial tribunals.”

    “Against such measures,” Hamilton continued, “we ought to keep a vigilant eye and take a manly stand. Whenever they arise, we ought to resist, and resist till we have hurled the demagogues and tyrants from their imagined thrones.” No sensible American would look back on these remarks and think that, by them, Hamilton was undermining democracy.

    Hamilton’s great rival, Thomas Jefferson, acted on a similar view. As president, Jefferson pardoned publishers who had been convicted under the Sedition Act of 1798. Jefferson’s course of action here was inseparable from his belief that the Act was unconstitutional and that the courts of the United States had made themselves party to serious injustices by convicting defendants under it. Indeed, the pardoning power is included in the United States Constitution, and in many state constitutions, and is used routinely, precisely because prosecutors and courts can make mistakes and sometimes even willfully abuse their power over the lives and liberties of citizens.

    These dangers are also recognized in federal law. Title 18 of the United States Code prohibits and punishes “deprivation of rights under color of law.” By its very terms this provision acknowledges that sometimes those entrusted with the administration of justice are themselves guilty of behaving lawlessly and abusively. The United States Department of Justice’s website observes that this provision may be applied not only against “police officers, sheriff’s deputies, and prison guards” but also, as appropriate, against “judges, district attorneys,” and “other public officials.” This important provision is itself an acknowledgment by the government that all the proceedings of our justice system are not entitled to uncritical acceptance.

    Everyone conversant with American history knows that the problem of politicized and corrupt abuses of the justice system has not disappeared in the modern era, that it continues to rear its ugly head precisely when political passions run high and communities are inflamed against leaders for whom they harbor deep animosities. In the 1960s, Alabama state authorities brought Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. to trial on charges that he had committed perjury in relation to his tax filings.

    This prosecution was a transparently cynical attempt to deprive an important American political and social movement of its most effective leader. In that case, however, even the Alabama jury, composed exclusively of white men, perceived the abusive character of the case and returned an acquittal. Afterwards, Dr. King thanked the jury for their “fair, honest, and just verdict” and commended the Alabama judge for the “high and noble manner” in which he had conducted the case.

    If criticism of prosecutors and courts is permissible and necessary in certain circumstances, the only important question at present is whether such criticism is justified in the case of President Trump’s New York conviction. Would it be reasonable for impartial Americans today to echo Dr. King’s words and congratulate the Manhattan jury for a “fair” verdict and commend Judge Merchan for his “high and noble” handling of the case?

    For an answer to that question, we need not rely on Trump or his aggrieved supporters. We need only look to the evaluation of respected CNN legal analyst and former federal prosecutor Elie Honig, writing in New York Magazine: “Prosecutors Got Trump, But They Contorted the Law.”

    Carson Holloway is a Washington Fellow in the Claremont Institute’s Center for the American Way of Life. This article was first published at TomKlingenstein.com.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/15/2024 – 12:50

  • Military Draft Coming? House Passes Measure To Automatically Register Men For Selective Service
    Military Draft Coming? House Passes Measure To Automatically Register Men For Selective Service

    The House of Representatives on Friday approved its version of the annual defense policy bill, effectively clearing the $883.7 billion National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) to move forward in a 217-199 vote which largely fell along party lines. Only three Republicans opposed it.

    A number of ‘controversial’ amendments are part of it, setting up a further fight with Democrats as it moves forward, including a measure empowering the National Guard to crack down on the southern border.

    But among the most interesting aspects to the bill for Fiscal Year 2025 is an amendment to the NDAA which automatically registers all draft-age male U.S. residents with the Selective Service System.

    File image via Fox News

    This means that all able-bodied males in the country age 18-26 could potentially be drafted in the scenario of a future war declaration by Congress. The selection would be based on information from Federal databases.

    While there has been a Selective Service program in effect for decades, it has long previously only been voluntary, but this new amendment will make registration automatic. The merely ‘voluntary’ system had been in effect since 1980 – but critics have said that leaving it up for young men to decide for themselves whether to register has resulted in a weak and ineffective system with not enough numbers.

    According to more background for this new Congressional push: 

    The automatic draft registration proposal was instigated by the Selective Service System (SSS) as part of its annual budget request to Congress, introduced by Rep. Chrissy Houlahan (D-Pa.), “wholeheartedly” endorsed by HASC Chair Mike Rogers (R-Ala.), and approved by voice vote of the full committee without audible opposition. The text of Rep. Houlahan’s proposal can be read here. Her office’s press release on the proposal can be read here.

    Rep. Houlahan had been one of the leading advocates of proposals in previous years to expand draft registration to women as well as men. Her latest proposal for automatic registration of men only for a military draft indicates that she is more deeply committed to militarization than to any purported feminism.

    There’s been a rising number of military papers and reports calling for the reinstatement of a more robust draft system of late, especially in relation to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

    For example, last year the US Army War College’s academic journal included a highly disturbing essay on what lessons the US military should take away from the continuing war in Ukraine.

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    By far the most concerning and most relevant section of that War College essay for the average American citizen is a subsection entitled “Casualties, Replacements, and Reconstitutions” which directly states, “Large-scale combat operations troop requirements may well require a reconceptualization of the 1970s and 1980s volunteer force and a move toward partial conscription.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/15/2024 – 12:15

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Jun 15

Today’s News 15th June 2024

  • German Politicians Fingered In Chinese "Cash For Permits" Corruption Scandal
    German Politicians Fingered In Chinese “Cash For Permits” Corruption Scandal

    By Thomas Brooke, of Rmx.news

    The main suspect in an ongoing fraud investigation in Germany has incriminated several local politicians from the mainstream parties in the town of Düren, accusing key players in the district administration of taking bribes to approve bogus residence permits for wealthy Chinese nationals.

    Claus B., a lawyer suspected of leading a criminal enterprise that advertised its services to foreign nationals and registered fake companies in Germany to assist with work permits, says local politicians were complicit in the scheme and received incentives to look the other way.

    Former CDU district administrator Werner Stump was accused of having knowledge of the racket and has maintained a long-running relationship with Claus B., hosting his law firm’s parties at a hotel he runs and meeting regularly with the suspect to discuss real estate deals. Stump has denied violating any laws relating to the granting of residence permits and insists he has done everything necessary to cooperate with the investigating authorities.

    Another politician, Jens Bröker, a former SPD district administrator candidate who is now the department head for change and development in the Düren district, has been accused of being a major partner in the scheme, allegedly receiving up to €300,000 to use his influence and ensure the smooth approval of residence permit applications when landing on his desk.

    Bröker is also in custody and has been dismissed from his posts. His defense attorney did not respond to requests for comment by German media.

    Other politicians named in the scandal include former head of the immigration department and current treasurer Dirk Hürtgen (CDU) and his successor Sybille Haußmann (Greens) who allegedly facilitated the permit approvals, and District Administrator Wolfgang Spelthahn (CDU), president of the local football team FC Düren, which received substantial sponsorship and funding from companies owned by Claus B.

    Spelthahn has denied that he “received any monetary payments or other benefits” and insists the sponsorship contracts with FC Düren were “documented transparently, properly taxed and processed and supported by the entire board,” according to news outlet Junge Freiheit.

    Continue reading at rmx.news

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/14/2024 – 23:00

  • Farage's Reform UK Party Overtakes Sunak's Conservatives: Poll
    Farage’s Reform UK Party Overtakes Sunak’s Conservatives: Poll

    Europe’s marked shift towards populism appears to be accelerating, as Nigel Farage’s Reform UK Party has surpassed Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives in an opinion poll for the first time, signaling a potential shift in the British political landscape as the nation approaches the July 4 general election.

    According to a YouGov survey conducted for The Times, Reform UK now holds 19% of voter support, up two percentage points, while the Conservatives remain static at 18%. The opposition Labour Party continues to lead with 37% support. The poll, involving 2,211 respondents, was conducted from June 12 to June 13, shortly after Sunak’s announcement of a 17 billion pound ($21.70 billion) tax cut in the Conservative Party’s election manifesto.

    The rise of Reform UK coincides with Farage’s return to the political forefront, after he announced his intent to lead the party and seek election to Parliament. Farage, a pivotal figure in Britain’s Brexit movement, aims to reshape the political conversation around populist issues, including stringent immigration policies.

    “This is the inflection point. The only wasted vote now is a Conservative vote, we are the challengers to Labour and we are on our way,” Farage declared in a campaign video.

    Reform UK, initially founded as the Brexit Party in 2018, has embraced a platform that appeals to right-wing voters who feel alienated by the traditional Conservative agenda. This shift comes as Sunak faces criticism for his early departure from D-Day memorial events in France, an action that has cast a shadow over his campaign.

    Despite the latest polls showing Reform UK ahead of the Conservatives in terms of voter preference, the party’s evenly spread support across the country poses a significant challenge in the first-past-the-post electoral system. This system favors geographically concentrated backing, thus making it unlikely for Reform UK to secure many, if any, of the 650 parliamentary seats, despite potentially amassing millions of votes nationwide.

    A Conservative lawmaker, who asked to remain anonymous, commented on the shift – telling Reuters: “Yes. I think people are fed up with the Tories, but not with Conservatism. So they are moving to another Conservative party.”

    While other polls have shown the Conservatives with a more substantial lead over Reform, the momentum appears to be with Farage as he re-enters the political arena with a clear message and strategy aimed at disrupting the current political order. As the election approaches, it remains to be seen how this shift will impact the Conservative Party’s strategy and whether Farage’s renewed influence will translate into electoral success.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/14/2024 – 22:30

  • US Worried Israel Is Rushing Into War With Hezbollah With No Clear Strategy
    US Worried Israel Is Rushing Into War With Hezbollah With No Clear Strategy

    Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

    The Biden administration is concerned that the violence on the Israel-Lebanon border could soon escalate into a full-blown war and that Israel is rushing into the conflict without a clear strategy, Axios reported this week.

    US officials told Axios that the administration has cautioned Israel against the idea of a “limited war,” warning that Iran could intervene and militants in Iraq and Syria could join the fighting.

    Image: Israel Defense Forces

    The report said the White House believes a ceasefire in Gaza is the only thing that could reduce tensions on the Israel-Lebanon border. However, Israeli officials have previously threatened to escalate in Lebanon if a truce is reached in Gaza.

    The report comes after Israeli airstrikes killed a Hezbollah commander who was described as the most senior member of Hezbollah to be killed by Israel since October 2023.

    Hezbollah responded with a large volley of rockets. On Thursday, Israeli soldiers were spotted launching large fireballs into southern Lebanon to start fires.

    According to a tally from AFP, Israeli bombings in southern Lebanon have killed at least 468 people in southern Lebanon since October, including 89 civilians. On the Israeli side, Israeli authorities have said 15 soldiers and 11 civilians have been killed by Hezbollah.

    The US is calling for de-escalation on the border after the latest round of strikes, but there’s no sign diplomatic efforts are making any progress.

    There’s also no sign that the US is putting any real pressure on Israel to change what it’s doing in the north since US military aid continues to flow.

    Hezbollah publishes footage of fresh attacks on settlements of Kiryat Shmona, Kafr Sold, & Margaliot in northern Israel:

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    Back in January, The Washington Post reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might view a war in Lebanon as key to his political survival. President Biden said recently that people have “every reason” to believe that Netanyahu is dragging out the onslaught in Gaza for his own political self-preservation.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/14/2024 – 22:00

  • Eat More Pork Chops – A "Really Tasty Alternative" To Beeflation 
    Eat More Pork Chops – A “Really Tasty Alternative” To Beeflation 

    Cash-strapped consumers are on the hunt for deals this summer. We highlighted in a note earlier Friday that Goldman analysts revealed that Walmart offers the best grocery deals among major brick-and-mortar supermarkets. Digging deeper, the discussion has now shifted to the meat aisle. 

    Consumers are well aware of soaring beef prices over the last several years, primarily due to the collapse of the US cattle herd to its smallest size since the 1950s. 

    Collapsing herd. 

    Retail ground beef prices. 

    The good news for consumers is that with an abundance of pork supplies, prices are much more affordable than beef. 

    How much cheaper?

    Well… Wholesale pork prices are currently $2.13 per pound cheaper than beef. This added savings means consumers have increased purchasing power if they switch from beef to pork during this summer’s grilling season. 

    According to Bloomberg, the pork industry is finally about to catch some tailwinds after oversupplied conditions severely dented margins in recent years. Now, industry leaders are raising awareness about pork savings. 

    Pork producers have been under pressure as meat demand hasn’t kept pace with supplies and higher crop prices made it more expensive to feed herds. Still, attendees at the World Pork Expo in Des Moines, Iowa, last week expect the industry’s fortunes to start turning, with more demand giving them the bump needed to further improve margins. -BBG

    “I would ask that every American go out and buy as many pork chops as they can and share with their neighbors,” said Bryan Humphreys, CEO of the National Pork Producers Council, a hog producer trade group. 

    More from Bloomberg about the good fortunes coming to hog farmers: 

    Hog producers are seeing the beginnings of a turnaround after a pork glut sent profits plunging over the past year. For operators who bulk up pigs from farrowing to slaughter weight, margins in April turned profitable for the first time in seven months, according to Iowa State University data.

    “Every time that things get tough, people eat more pizza,” Rabobank senior animal protein analyst Christine McCracken explained, adding that ground pork is a “really tasty alternative” to ground beef. 

    And there you have it. Beef is becoming a luxury item. Pork is for the poors. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/14/2024 – 21:30

  • 76 Percent Of Those Under Age 40 Would Consider A China-Model Car
    76 Percent Of Those Under Age 40 Would Consider A China-Model Car

    Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk.com,

    Would You Buy a China-Made Car?

    The Wall Street Journal reports 2024 Polestar 2: Built to Compete With Tesla

    Our guest this week is the facelifted Polestar 2, a chic if somewhat cramped premium compact crossover built in China and brought to you by Volvo Cars in Gothenburg, Sweden. In 2010, the China-based conglomerate Geely bought Volvo Cars and now owns a 24% stake in the Polestar brand.

    Last week AutoPacific market research released survey results gauging Americans’ openness to Chinese imported vehicles. Of the 800 people surveyed, 35% said they would be open to buying a car from a China-based brand. Among the under-40, that number hits 76%, despite widespread concerns about personal privacy.

    It’s the age-based survey aspect that caught my eye, not the performance of the P2 that will cost close to $50,000.

    BYD to Slash EV Prices Even More

    Electrek reports BYD to Slash EV Prices Even More with New Platform as it Looks to Crush ICE Car Sales.

    BYD is leading an offensive against ICE vehicles. A new report claims BYD’s new EV platform will slash costs even further as the automaker kicks off a “liberation battle” against gas-powered cars.

    Best known for its low-cost EVs, such as the Dolphin, Atto 3, and sleek Seal sedan, BYD is taking its game up a notch in 2024.

    BYD launched a price war on ICE vehicles last month with the new Qin Plus EV and PHEV models. Starting at $15,200 (109,800 yuan), the new EV officially opened a “new era of electricity is cheaper than oil.”

    The DM-i (PHEV) version is even cheaper, starting at around $11,000 (79,800 yuan). It includes up to 74 mi (120 km) NEDC all-electric range.

    The all-electric Qin Plus is offered with 48 kWh or 57.6 kWh battery packs for up to 261 mi (420 km) or 316 mi (510 km) CLTC range, respectively.

    Last year, BYD introduced a DM-i model priced below the 100,000 yuan ($13,900) mark for the first time. The automaker said it was “directly destroying the moat of joint venture vehicles.” In other words, legacy automakers that are still selling gas-powered cars.

    Its next-gen DM-i system will enable PHEVs to drive over 1,200 miles (2,000 km) with a fuel tank and full charge. This will make it hard for traditional gas cars to compete.

    Although BYD isn’t planning to launch passenger EVs in the US, it is taking market share in key global markets, including Europe, Japan, South America, and Thailand.

    Electrek Reader Comment

    Personally I don’t care if all legacy US auto companies go out of business. BYD can make cheap $10,000 quality EV’s and US consumers should be able to buy them. Legacy automakers have been ripping us off for years by selling polluting gas guzzlers that break down far too often and cost us thousands of dollars to repair. The cheaper Chinese EV’s have less moving parts and are much cheaper to buy and maintain. BYD should be allowed to import their EV’s into the US and build an EV factory in the US.

    Deflationary Push From China

    On April 22, I cautioned A Big Deflationary Push From China But Will Biden or Trump Allow That?

    China keeps returning to a well that has run dry, using exports as a means for growth. China is about to hit a brick wall, with global consequences.

    Everyone thinks they can win a trade war. The only way to win is not play the game.

    Neither China, nor the US, nor Germany or Japan has figured this out. And everyone wants to be a big exporter. It’s mathematically impossible.

    Biden Hikes Tariffs 100 Percent

    On May 10, I noted Biden Wants EVs so Badly That He Will Quadruple Tariffs on Them

    Astute readers will immediately notice the title of this post makes no sense. It’s not supposed to. But it is exactly what President Biden is doing.

    Conflicting Goals

    We don’t want EVs unless people are willing to pay 100% more for them. And this is despite the claim that the world as we know it will end in 12 years if we don’t act on them.

    The EU Taxes Vehicles from China that its Own Companies Make

    Yesterday, I commented The EU Taxes Vehicles from China that its Own Companies Make

    As with the EU, Biden insists you buy an EV and he wants you to pay the most possible for it (no cheap BYD vehicles).

    On top of it, Biden has a Green mandate with no infrastructure in place, no way to produce the needed batteries with US materials, and no way to get the minerals given China has a 90 percent monopoly on nearly all of the processing and most of the mining.

    Trump wants to stop China as well.

    Look towards Mexico for China’s hoped for work around. Please note BYD Unveils the “Shark” a Plug-in Hybrid Pickup Truck Built in Mexico

    The Chinese automaker BYD (Build Your Dreams) announces a 700-mile range PHEV that will be built in Mexico, this year.

    China Shock II Is Coming, the EU Will Be Hit Hard, Then the US

    On May 17, I commented China Shock II Is Coming, the EU Will Be Hit Hard, Then the US

    Germany is feeling the pinch of China shock. But the US is on deck too. A global trade war looms.

    We are right on schedule for China Shock. And it will happen no matter who wins the election.

    Meanwhile, If you are interested in an inexpensive EV, both Trump and Biden want to stop you from having one.

    Short-term, a recession will help the Fed. Long-term, inflation pressures are still huge.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/14/2024 – 21:00

  • Mondelez Says Oreo Cookie Prices Won't Be Hiked Despite Cocoa Chaos In West Africa
    Mondelez Says Oreo Cookie Prices Won’t Be Hiked Despite Cocoa Chaos In West Africa

    Junk food maker Mondelez International remains optimistic that cocoa prices will drop at some point next year despite a global shortage sparked by adverse weather conditions in West Africa. This week, futures contracts in New York topped $10k/ton again. And the company reassured investors that it won’t raise prices on its chocolate-based products to protect its sales volume. 

    “My most probable scenario into next year is that costs will come down,” Chief Financial Officer Luca Zaramella said during the 4th Annual Evercore ISI Consumer & Retail Conference held virtually this week. 

    Zaramella, who was first quoted by Bloomberg, revealed that Mondelez, the maker of Oreo cookies and Toblerone bars, is well-prepared to purchase cocoa at lower prices. He also acknowledged the possibility of a temporary gap between high cocoa costs and affordable chocolate prices.

    “The name of the game for us is — particularly in a context where we believe chocolate costs will come down — to go through a potential temporary dislocation and protect volume and share as much as possible,” he added.

    The comments come as cocoa prices in New York surged above $10k/ton this week on the news the world’s top producers, Ivory Coast and Ghana, are experiencing worsening shortages of the bean.  

    Here’s our latest reports: 

    With prices above $10k/ton this week, commodity trader Pierre Andurand, who turned cocoa bull in March, is still bullish on his $20k/ton price target for later this year or next on the thesis of a continued slide in the inventory-to-grinding ratio.

    So, will Zaramella’s forecast of slumping cocoa prices next year be correct? Or will the junk food maker cave and eventually raise prices for consumers? 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/14/2024 – 20:30

  • Nashville Shooter’s Manifesto Released Despite FBI Resistance
    Nashville Shooter’s Manifesto Released Despite FBI Resistance

    Authored by John R. Lott Jr. via RealClearPolitics,

    The 2023 Nashville Covenant School murders understandably received massive news coverage when they occurred. The fight over obtaining the murderer’s diary also received news attention. But when “nearly four dozen pages” of the murderer’s diary were finally released last week, the mainstream media completely ignored it. It turns out that behind the scenes, the FBI had fought hard against the diary’s release. Some Covenant School parents also opposed releasing the diary because it would force families to re-live the nightmare. The Tennessee Star’s parent company, Star News Digital Media, successfully filed two lawsuits to obtain the diary.

    Five days after the release of the diary, with the exception of the New York Post, which is a national news outlet, the news coverage was limited to seven other conservative outlets such as The Daily Wire and Newsbusters.

    The school murderer was transgender, and her diary reveals a suicidal left-winger who hated whites. The FBI expressed concern that the release of the diary from a transgender person could lead the public “to dismiss the attacker as mentally ill,” which would “further permeate the false narrative that the majority of attackers are mentally ill.” It worried that the diary could “potentially inflam[e] the public.”

    The FBI worried that releasing the diary could have “unintended consequences for the segment of the population more vulnerable or open to conspiracy theories, which will undoubtedly abound.” Self-professed “experts,” the FBI fears, will “proffer their perspectives” in the press.

    But there is a lot of important information in the diary. As is very typical of mass public shooters, the murderer was suicidal: “A terrible feeling to know I am nothing of the gender I was born of. I am the most unhappy boy alive. I wish to be dead.” She was also on the anti-anxiety drug Buspirone, whose potential side effects include “abnormal dreams, outbursts of anger, tremors, and physical weakness.”

    The FBI worries that the diary will help create a link in people’s minds between mass murderers and mental illness, but suicidal people presumably have some mental health problems. Nor should the link be particularly surprising given that the Crime Prevention Research Center shows that 51% of mass public shooters in the last 25 years were actually seeing mental health care professionals before their attacks. That is 2.5 times the rate in the general public.

    The FBI acknowledged that Americans want to “understand what led to such tragic events.” But the FBI argued these statements “seldom provide the answers” and the diaries and manifestos were “often misleading.” Yet the national media appears completely uninterested in why these murderers pick the targets they do and how their motivation to get media coverage is important in understanding how to stop these attacks.

    The diary showed that the murderer had picked the Covenant School because it was a soft, unprotected target. Even if the national media ignored these comments, the Metro Nashville Police Chief John Drake, who had access to the diary, said on the day of the attack, “There was another location that was mentioned, but because of a threat assessment by the suspect of too much security, they decided not to.” A couple of days later, Nashville Council member Robert Swope stated that the murderer “looked at” two other Nashville public schools before deciding “the security was too great to do what she wanted to do.”

    While the FBI worries that many of “the offenders themselves do not fully grasp or comprehend” what they are writing, there is a logic to attacking facilities assumed to be gun-free zones, like the Covenant School, and trying to maximize the amount of media coverage that they receive. The FBI may not want to acknowledge this, and the media may not want to cover these points, but we see it consistently in these attacks.

    The mass murderer wanted to get attention for the difficulties facing transgender individuals. She compared trans individuals to other groups in a way that indicates she clearly believed that transgender people didn’t have the same rights: “Disabled have rights, civil races have rights, LGBTQ have rights, gun owners have rights.” But referring to the life of transgender people, she declared: “… with no rights, anyone’s country is a s***** dictatorship.”

    The news media and the FBI under the Biden administration are attempting to control the information available to Americans about a mentally troubled woman who identified as a man. The Biden administration is free to argue against linking transgender issues to mental illness or mass murder, but censoring the information is not the right approach.

    John R. Lott Jr. is a contributor to RealClearInvestigations, focusing on voting and gun rights. His articles have appeared in publications such as the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Los Angeles Times, New York Post, USA Today, and Chicago Tribune. Lott is an economist who has held research and/or teaching positions at the University of Chicago, Yale University, Stanford, UCLA, Wharton, and Rice.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/14/2024 – 20:00

  • Alex Jones Ordered To Liquidate Personal Assets, But Infowars Lives To Fight Another Day
    Alex Jones Ordered To Liquidate Personal Assets, But Infowars Lives To Fight Another Day

    A bankruptcy judge in Houston, Texas on Friday ordered Infowars founder Alex Jones to liquidate his personal assets to help pay roughly $1.5 billion in damages to Sandy Hook families, but handed Jones a win – dismissing a separate bankruptcy case over Infowars’ parent company, Free Speech Systems that would have handed control to the plaintiffs.

    In his ruling, US Bankruptcy Judge Christopher Lopez said that Sandy Hook families can pursue claims against Jones in state court without forcing Free Speech Systems into bankruptcy.

    “The right call is to dismiss this case,” said Lopez, giving Infowars a lifeline. “I think remaining assets can be resolved outside of a bankruptcy forum.”

    As for Jones’ personal bankruptcy, he had agreed to convert it into a Chapter 7 liquidation last week.

    “Those trustees will make decisions about where things go,” he continued. “We’re not leaving things into the wind here.”

    Infowars responds

    “It looks like Infowars just got some extra time,” said host Owen Shroyer on air after news of the ruling broke.

    Jones had been preparing his massive audience for a shutdown, as attorney for the families sought not only to take over Infowars, but Jones’ personal social media accounts which they argued is “no different than a customer list of any other liquidating business.”

    Shortly before the hearing, Jones addressed the public to describe possible outcomes.

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    The Sandy Hook families asked the judge to make clear that the Jones’ “@RealAlexJones” account on X.com, formerly known as Twitter, will be among the assets turned over to a court-appointed trustee in charge of liquidating Jones’ assets. Jones’ X account, which has 2.3 million followers, is “no different than a customer list of any other liquidating business,” the Sandy Hook families argued.

    They argued that Jones has used the social media account to push down the value of Infowars by diverting sales from that site to his father’s DrJonesNaturals.com, which sells health supplements and other products. –Reuters

    Jones’ attorney, Vickie Driver, hit back – arguing that the request was procedurally improper and that Jones would oppose the currently moot request.

    “The Connecticut Plaintiffs have never wanted money from Jones but to silence him,” said Driver.

    Early Friday morning, Jones explained what was going on while driving to court.

    Earlier this week, a court-appointed trustee for Free Speech Systems, who Jones said is a giant leftist, urged Lopez to convert Jones’ bankruptcy into a Chapter 7 liquidation – claiming that Jones’ reaction to his life’s work being dismantled was “erratic and unhinged,” and could therefore hurt the value of his business empire – thus reducing the amount that could be paid to the Sandy Hook families. 

    The plaintiffs in the case were sharply divided over the fight – with Connecticut families asking that the company be liquidated, and Texas plaintiffs who prevailed over Jones asking the case to be dismissed – arguing that they could better pursue funds if Infowars remained in business.

    Jones filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in late 2022, after filing for bankruptcy for Free Speech Systems earlier that year.

    Jones livestreamed on the way home from court, and will be on-air at 10AM central.

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    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/14/2024 – 19:30

  • NIH Documents Show $1.6 Billion Long COVID Initiative So Far Falls Short Of Goals
    NIH Documents Show $1.6 Billion Long COVID Initiative So Far Falls Short Of Goals

    Authored by Megan Redshaw, J.D. via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    (Naeblys/Shutterstock)

    It’s been more than three years since Congress directed the National Institutes of Health (NIH) to investigate the long-term effects of COVID-19—and there are still no answers for the millions of Americans suffering from long COVID.

    The NIH launched the $1.15 billion RECOVER initiative in early 2021 to understand, prevent, and develop potential treatments for long COVID. The NIH set deadlines for certain goals to be met when it allocated funding.

    But according to documents obtained by The Sick Times, MuckRock, and STAT through the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA), the goals outlined in contracts between the NIH and the institutions tasked with leading the research have not been met despite passing the deadline, and nearly all of the initial funding has already been allocated.

    “It’s a waste of money,” Dr. Darrel DeMello, a COVID-19 specialist, told The Epoch Times in an email. Dr. DeMello believes there should be a solution or a series of solutions for treating long COVID by now.

    Congress allocated more than a billion dollars to the NIH in December 2020 and recently signed off on an additional $515 million to bolster research efforts. However, the documents show the majority of the funding has been used for observational research to collect data instead of clinical trials that test therapies or treatments.

    NIH Recruited Data Experts, Not Long COVID Experts

    According to NIH documents, RECOVER relied on three central institutions for its long COVID research initiatives: New York University (NYU), Massachusetts General Hospital, and Research Triangle Institute.

    Collectively, these three contracts account for a significant portion of the $1.15 billion that Congress allocated to the NIH for long COVID research in 2020. The contract documents offer insights into how the NIH established its long COVID research initiative, the scientific expertise that the NIH prioritizes in its research teams, and RECOVER’s initial goals and timelines.

    The NIH did not choose scientists with established expertise treating COVID-19 or independent physicians currently seeing long COVID patients in the clinical setting. The agency largely chose personnel in the research field who have been or are presently funded by other NIH grants and specialize in data collection and information systems.

    According to the contract between NYU and NIH, experts with “key personnel experience” have backgrounds in biostatistics, data collection, and cardiac therapeutics. Key personnel working on the Massachusetts General RECOVER initiatives have backgrounds in biostatistics, epidemiology and environmental health, pharmacoepidemiology, pulmonology, rheumatic disease, information systems, cloud computing, and developing and implementing analytic tools for large data.

    Selecting researchers who have never treated acute COVID-19 infections will yield results, as those who treat COVID-19 infections are the ones who understand the actual underlying disease process, according to Dr. DeMello.

    Although the NIH has an expert list of investigators and clinicians providing oversight to working groups with expertise and clinical experience treating post-infection syndromes, myalgic encephalomyelitis, chronic fatigue syndrome, and other illnesses, only one expert is currently part of RECOVER’s listed leadership and its clinical trial leadership team.

    RECOVER Initiative Still Hasn’t Defined Long COVID

    An initial goal of RECOVER was to better define long COVID and the risk of developing the condition after a SARS-CoV-2 infection. This goal has not been met.

    Around 10 percent of adults who have had COVID-19 continue to experience long-term symptoms, commonly referred to as long COVID or post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC). This translates to millions of Americans, considering that over 100 million people in the United States have been infected with SARS-CoV-2.

    According to the NIH’s contract with NYU, its observational study aimed to recruit 85 percent of its cohort by spring 2022 and to have a working research-based definition of long COVID within the same timeframe. They did not reach 85 percent recruitment in 2022 and no working definition for long COVID has been provided.

    In a paper published more than a year ago in the Journal of the American Medical Association, RECOVER researchers sought to develop a long COVID definition based on self-reported symptoms that could be used in future studies.

    They found 37 symptoms across multiple pathophysiological domains present more often in SARS-CoV-2–infected participants at six months or more after infection compared with uninfected participants. Of these, the NIH said 12 symptoms best distinguished between those with and without long COVID, including post-exertional malaise, fatigue, brain fog, dizziness, gastrointestinal symptoms, heart palpitations, issues with sexual desire or capacity, loss of smell or taste, thirst, chronic cough, chest pain, and abnormal movements. This led experts and lawmakers to criticize the prioritized symptoms for diagnosis as more than 200 symptoms have been reported in those with long COVID. The NIH, in response, posted a Q&A to address concerns.

    The NIH reiterated that there is no definition of long COVID researchers can use to identify the disease, nor should insurers, disability agencies, or physicians use the study’s findings to clinically define or rule out long COVID. Additionally, the NIH acknowledged a working definition is evolving, but more research is needed before a definition can be used in clinical practice.

    RECOVER Has Not Started Clinical Trials

    The RECOVER website states that the NIH has finished planning the “full research protocols” for RECOVER observational studies, but clinical trial protocols have only been finalized for two of the five RECOVER clinical trials, and none of the clinical trials have completed enrollment.

    “I know everybody has been frustrated with how slow things are moving, but good science takes time,” Dr. Michelle Harkins told The Epoch Times.

    Dr. Harkins, a pulmonologist and critical care specialist, said she’s involved in three of the five RECOVER clinical trials.

    “It has taken longer than I would like to get them up and running, but there are some clinical trials in progress,” she said.

    “In the RECOVER-VITAL study, we are looking at Paxlovid, and two-thirds of the enrolled population is already in the study. We are going to be doing a sleep study at the University of Mexico to look at light therapy and other treatments, and we will be taking some of our patients from the observational cohorts for the clinical trial,” Dr. Harkins said.

    In a randomized clinical trial published June 7 in JAMA Internal Medicine, researchers from Stanford found that a 15-day course of Paxlovid was generally safe but did not show significant benefit in a group of 155 mostly vaccinated participants with long COVID. The clinical trial was funded by Pfizer and coauthored by experts on RECOVER’s post-infection illness expert list.

    “In the ENERGIZE study, researchers will look into transcranial direct current stimulator to assess neuro-component, and another study will look at POTS [Postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome] disease and IVIG [intravenous immunoglobulin],” Dr. Harkins added.

    In response to concerns that most of the funds went to data collection and observational research instead of clinical trials that could provide potential treatments for long-COVID patients, Dr. Harkins said observational cohorts will not provide specific answers but will provide “biobanking specimens” that scientists and researchers can learn from, which is especially important for the pediatric cohort.

    As to why it has taken so long for the clinical trials to get underway, Dr. Harkins said the enrollment process can take a while because participants have to be screened to ensure they qualify for the trial.

    “We want to make sure we put them in the right trial. If you put everyone with long COVID into a trial, you may not get answers, but if you put the person into the right trial based on their symptoms, we might be able to understand what treatments work for which group of patients. So, it is a little more detailed than just putting people into trials,” she explained.

    “Long COVID is very complex, and it affects multiple organ systems—so really finding one pill to fix long COVID is not going to happen, so we are trying to understand how people with certain symptoms respond to certain treatments,” she said. “I wish it were as easy as the vaccine, believe me. It is taking a long time, and that’s frustrating, I’m sure, for all of us—on the study side of things, too. I wish it were going faster, but we are making some progress.”

    At the same time, Dr. Harkins said some things could be done to speed things up. For example, faster clinical trials could be set up to test treatments that some patients and doctors are already using with some success, like low-dose naltrexone.

    “Can we set up a rapid clinical trial network like we had during COVID times, where we have a little less red tape and can push things through faster? There needs to be another arm that looks into a rapid clinical trial,” she said.

    Dr. Harkins said they’re close to finishing enrollment for the clinical trials she’s working on, but they will still need to perform the trial and follow participants for 120 days afterward.

    “I think we are going to have some answers on some of the clinical trials in the coming months, and hopefully, they’ll be causative answers so that we know how to help patients. In the meantime, the observational studies do still give us good information that we can use,” she said.

    “But I do think we could have a faster turnaround for all of the things that need to get done. Perhaps having a central entity to help fast-track and really study this so that we can move things forward, because we need to have these mechanisms in place for the pandemic or health crisis,” she added.

    Dr. Harkins said Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is working on a “moonshot bill,” which would provide $10 billion in funding over the next decade to establish a long COVID research program at the NIH. This funding would be in addition to recent funding allocated for the continued RECOVER trial and may help speed up the process. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/14/2024 – 19:00

  • LA City Council Removes U-Turn Signs In Gay Neighborhood Because They Are "Homophobic"
    LA City Council Removes U-Turn Signs In Gay Neighborhood Because They Are “Homophobic”

    Another bizarre virtue signal just in time for pride month.  Street signs that LA officials said previously targeted LGBT community members were taken down from a Silver Lake neighborhood this week.  The signs that read “No Cruising” and prohibited U-turns were installed in 1997 when neighbors allegedly complained about gay men stalking back and forth in vehicles looking for “dates” in certain residential areas. 

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    In other words, the signs interfere with the gay pastime of “cruising” (sexual solicitation).  Whether or not they were actually posted specifically to ward off gay people is not confirmed, but the simple act of obstructing LGBT people from doing whatever they want to do is now considered “homophobia” by progressives.   

    “For me, growing up in South Central Los Angeles, cruising had a very different meaning. It usually meant folks in their lowriders or their cars, a lot of hip-hop music, just going up down Crenshaw Boulevard,” Council member Soto-Martinez said. “But here in Silver Lake, cruising, of course, meant something very different. It meant an opportunity for the LGBT community to try to find human connection and intimacy and to be able to express themselves in a society at the time that was not very welcoming to the LGBT community.”

    The history of “cruising” in the gay community had very little to do with dating and far more to do with anonymous encounters as well as prostitution.  With the advent of more socially accepted gay society in the US in the 1970s, a cultural problem of sexual solicitation and lewdness arose in public bathrooms and public parks in cities across America.  The habit naturally attracted crime to certain areas and is even cited as one of the primary causes for the rapid spread of AIDS in the early 1980s.  

    The problem was apparently so bad in the neighborhood of Silver Lake that residents were compelled to put traffic restrictions in place to prevent people from driving back and forth on their street all day soliciting for sex.  Keep in mind, such laws also exist in places where straight prostitution and solicitation is common.     

    LGBT advocates argue that cruising encounters were a necessity due to social stigma and laws against homosexuality, but such issues did not exist in the late 1990s, especially in liberal LA.  The bottom line?  Hedonism is a consistent feature of gay society regardless of the laws or how much social acceptance is in vogue.  Cruising is not a necessary behavior, it’s a fetish.

    If residents of any neighborhood were faced with their area becoming a hot spot for solicitation and prostitution, gay or straight, it’s reasonable for them to do whatever they can to make it stop.      

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/14/2024 – 18:30

  • Top Tech Trio Melts Up To Record High As Rest Of Market, Europe Burns
    Top Tech Trio Melts Up To Record High As Rest Of Market, Europe Burns

    Another day, another tech-led meltup, which managed to reverse the early slump in the stock “market”, and push the S&P to just shy of closing green, and the 41st record high of 2024, on the back of just one idea: this one.

    Frankly, the whole AI meltup has become stupid: with the Mag 7 concept now dead and buried, all that matters are the Top 3 Tech Trio – Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia – which all have the almost same market cap, just around $3.2 trillion, and which as reported yesterday, are just  “Taking Turns Going On Runs To All Time Highs“, with Nvidia overtaking Apple again today yet both just behind Microsoft…

    … as traders expect that somehow the rest of the world will plow trillions into these three companies in perpetuity to justify their market cap, which of course will never happen (especially with the stagflationary recession that is looming according to pretty much any other industry) and instead these top AI-linked companies have so far disclosed relatively modest backlogs and cloud/data center RPO datapoints. According to Goldman, revenue allocated to RPOs for the cloud/data center segment was a paltry $242 billion as of March 31.

    That doesn’t matter however, because once in momentum, the party must go on, and until the buyback blackout period begins after the close today, the party is in full swing.

    Indeed, take Apple, which first saw its most disappointing WWDC performance in a decade – and with good reason: an AI-enabled Siri where all your queries are intercepted by the NSA tool that is ChatGPT, is still just as useless as Siri – only to explode higher the very next day as Tim Cook unleashed a massive buyback spree to create the impression that Apple’s official foray into AI wasn’t actually a total dud, and which in this extremely illiquid market sent the AAPL RSI to 80 making it the most overbought stock in three years…

    … as the buyback was promptly joined by what may have appears to be the world’s biggest gamma squeeze!

    And so, with the daily stock buyback-cum-gamma squeeze chase rotating among the Top Three Techs, the resulting action has pushed the S&P to record highs on 30 days this year, and four consecutive ATHs this week (Friday will be a wash) while the equal-weighted S&P has not moved in the past 4 months!

    But it’s not just tech vs non-tech. Even within tech there is a staggering divergence – Nasdaq hit a new record high despite 72% of the index close lower on the session and more than twice as many new lows as new highs...

    … and with the equal-weighted Nasdaq now underperforming 9 of the past 10 days!

    And here is the chart of the week: Nasdaq vs Nasdaq advance/decline line. Absolutely crazy.

    So while all the buying now focuses on just a handful of stocks, this is what the S&P looked at the close: 2 sectors green and 9 red….

    … and yet, that epic imbalance didn’t stop spoos from closing unchanged!

    Literally, literally, nothing but those 3 companies matters any more, certainly not the Russell 2000 index which is down three days in a row.

    But while algos and traders are staring in fascination at the daily chase to new record highs among the “Top 3” and ignoring the rest of the S&P, things outside the US are turning ugly. No, not China, which as everyone knows is a basket case, and where the recent bounce is now over and done as the CSI slides from the mid-May highs…

    … we are talking about Europe, and specifically France, where as noted earlier, the upcoming elections called so unexpectedly by president Macron, are now setting up to be a disaster for the French president, who is looking at a catastrophic loss following the snap formation of a leftist alliance, and which sent the French CAC40 plunging the most this week since early 2022, driven by plunging banks (SocGen down 12%, BNP Paribas down 10%)…

    … but it wasn’t France’s stocks that were the highlight: instead it was the plunge in French bonds and the record blow out in the French-German yield spread…

    … which widened 29bps this week to 77bps, the highest since 2017…

    … that should be truly spooking markets as nobody, and we mean nobody, is prepared for another European debt crisis right now…. although this may be just the “crisis”, similar to Covid, the world needs to shock central banks into aggressively easing over the coming months and ahead of the US presidential election. To this point, the 10Y clearly knows which was the wind is blowing and ignoring the meltup in tech, TSY yields tumbled to the lowest level since early May.

    And speaking of tightening, in the biggest news overnight, the BOJ once again kicked the can on actually tightening financial conditions and trimming its bond buying, and even as Japan reels under staggering inflation, the idiots that pass for its central bankers somehow managed to spark another yen rout, and only the imminent arrival of the next European sovereign bond crisis managed to push the yen modestly higher.

    Yet while the coming central bank deluge was noted by gold and silver, both of which closed at session highs…

    … crypto remains in an algo-driven world of its own, and tumbled all session since the European close for no reason even as ETFs now own 1 million of the 21 million bitcoins that will ever be mined.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/14/2024 – 18:11

  • DOJ Won’t Pursue Criminal Contempt Charges Against Garland
    DOJ Won’t Pursue Criminal Contempt Charges Against Garland

    Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Attorney General Merrick Garland testifies before the House Judiciary Committee in Congress in Washington on Sept. 20, 2023. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times)

    An official from the Department of Justice (DOJ) told House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) in a letter that Attorney General Merrick Garland will not be prosecuted for contempt of Congress because his refusal to hand over audio recordings of President Joe Biden’s interview with a prosecutor did not amount to a crime.

    In the letter, which was obtained by several media outlets, the DOJ official said that Mr. Garland’s refusal to comply with a subpoena demanding audio records of an interview that special counsel Robert Hur conducted with President Biden in his investigation into the president’s alleged mishandling of classified documents “did not constitute a crime.”

    “Consistent with this longstanding position and uniform practice, the Department has determined that the responses by Attorney General Garland to the subpoenas issued by the Committees did not constitute a crime, and accordingly the Department will not bring the congressional contempt citation before a grand jury or take any other action to prosecute the Attorney General,” Carlos Felipe Uriarte, an assistant attorney general, wrote in the letter.

    The letter also cited DOJ policy not to prosecute officials for contempt of Congress when they don’t comply with subpoenas due to a presidential claim of executive privilege.

    A request for comment and confirmation of the content of the letter sent to the DOJ was not immediately returned.

    More Details

    The refusal to pursue contempt charges against Mr. Garland comes after the House voted on June 12 to hold him in contempt for failing to comply with the subpoena to turn over the tapes.

    The House resolution, which passed in a mostly party-line 216–207 vote, came amid a months-long standoff between Republicans and the DOJ over the production of the audio recordings of President Biden’s two-day interview with the special counsel.

    House Republicans have said that they want to obtain the recordings to verify Mr. Hur’s assertions that President Biden couldn’t recollect certain facts during the interview. They have alleged that a two-tiered justice system exists because Mr. Hur opted to not charge President Biden while former President Donald Trump faces multiple charges in connection with his own classified documents probe.

    Mr. Hur, who faced criticism from Democrats and the White House for remarks on the president’s cognitive capacity in his report, didn’t recommend charges against President Biden, in part because of his ailing memory.

    “At trial, Mr. Biden would likely present himself to a jury, as he did during our interview of him, as a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory,” the special counsel wrote in his 388-page report, which found that President Biden “willfully retained and disclosed classified materials” when he was a private citizen after the end of his term as vice president during the Obama administration.

    While Republicans have said that they want the tapes to verify Mr. Hur’s assertions, Democrats have argued that Republicans want to use the tapes in campaign ads to portray President Biden as a frail leader with a poor memory who’s too old to serve another term in the Oval Office.

    Mr. Hur revealed in testimony before the House Judiciary Committee in March that White House officials sought to soften his report’s characterizations of President Biden’s ailing memory.

    Mr. Uriarte’s letter to Mr. Johnson also states that the DOJ made efforts to accommodate Congressional requests for information related to Mr. Hur’s interview of the president, including producing a transcript of the conversation.

    The DOJ official also cited a “lack of a sufficient need” for the production of the audio tape of the interview that would “further a legitimate congressional purpose.”

    Executive Privilege

    On May 16, President Biden asserted executive privilege over the interview tapes, with the White House counsel’s office notifying House Republicans of the move just hours before they were expected to recommend holding Mr. Garland in contempt for refusing to hand them over.

    Mr. Garland and White House Counsel Ed Siskel defended the executive privilege assertion as necessary because it could affect future investigations.

    In a May 15 letter to the president, Mr. Garland said that the “committee’s needs are plainly insufficient to outweigh the deleterious effects that the production of the recordings would have on the integrity and effectiveness of similar law enforcement investigations in the future.”

    President Biden’s counsel accused House Republicans of wanting the tapes to craft political attack ads.

    “The absence of a legitimate need for the audio recordings lays bare your likely goal—to chop them up, distort them, and use them for partisan political purposes,” Ed Siskel, President Biden’s counsel, wrote to Reps. James Comer (R-Ky.) and Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) in a May 16 letter. “Demanding such sensitive and constitutionally-protected law enforcement materials from the Executive Branch because you want to manipulate them for potential political gain is inappropriate.”

    Still, the House Oversight Committee, chaired by Mr. Comer, and the House Judiciary Committee, chaired by Mr. Jordan, both voted on May 16 to hold Mr. Garland in contempt of Congress despite President Biden’s executive privilege intervention.

    Mr. Johnson has been critical of efforts to block the release of the tapes.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/14/2024 – 18:05

  • Southwest Boeing 737 Max Came Within 400 Feet From Crashing In Ocean Near Hawaii
    Southwest Boeing 737 Max Came Within 400 Feet From Crashing In Ocean Near Hawaii

    Bloomberg has obtained an internal memo from Southwest Airlines that was recently distributed to pilots. The memo details a frightening incident in April when a Boeing 737 Max 8 nearly crashed into the ocean off the coast of Hawaii during an aborted landing.

    The memo states Southwest Flight 2786 dropped at an abnormally high rate of more than 4,000 feet per minute before one of the pilots was able to sharply pull back on the yoke, sending the jet climbing at 8,500 feet per minute. The jet was 400 feet from hitting the ocean when the pilot recovered the aircraft.

    Data from from flight tracking website ADS-B Exchange shows Flight 2786 dropped from an altitude of about 1,000 feet to 400 feet above the ocean in just a few seconds. The plane was near Lihue Airport on the island of Kauai during the incident.

    Flight 2786 mishap was previously unreported and adds to the safety challenges facing the aviation industry, especially Boeing jets.

    The memo shows the incident was likely pilot-induced – and not a Max glitch:  

    According to Southwest’s review, the incident occurred following an aborted landing attempt due to inclement weather that blocked the pilots from seeing the runway by a specified altitude.

    The captain opted to put the “newer” first officer in command on the short flight to Lihue despite the forecasts, according to the memo.

    The less-experienced first officer “inadvertently” pushed forward on the control column, then cut the speed causing the airplane to descend. Soon after, a warning system sounded alarms the jet was getting too close to the surface and the captain ordered the first officer to increase thrust. The plane then “climbed aggressively” at 8,500 feet per minute, the memo said. -BBG

    For some context about stable and controlled flight, commercial jets usually glide down on approach at around a rate of 1,500 to 2,000 feet a minute before landing. The 8,500 feet per minute rate is very extreme and not controlled.

    Bloomberg noted, “That incident was investigated by both the FAA and NTSB, which found the mishap resulted from a miscommunication between the pilots on the aircraft.” 

    Kit Darby, a former commercial airline pilot and flight instructor, said the pilot was “pitching up and pitching down with the power and close to out of control — very close,”  adding, “It would feel like a roller coaster ride.” 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/14/2024 – 17:40

  • FDA Changes Course, Advises Updated COVID-19 Vaccines Target KP.2 Strain
    FDA Changes Course, Advises Updated COVID-19 Vaccines Target KP.2 Strain

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A healthcare worker prepares a COVID-19 vaccine in New York City in a file photograph. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)

    The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on June 13 changed course and recommended COVID-19 manufacturers target the KP.2 virus strain in their next round of shots.

    The regulatory agency had said earlier this month it was following advice from its advisers and directing manufacturers to target the JN.1 variant.

    The change “is intended to ensure that the COVID-19 vaccines (2024-2025 Formula) more closely match circulating SARS-CoV-2 strains,” the regulators said. SARS-CoV-2 is the virus that causes COVID-19.

    The change is “based on the most current available data, along with the recent rise in cases of COVID-19 in areas of the country,” the FDA said in a statement.

    The regulators, though, said manufacturers could choose whether or not to target KP.2, a sublineage of JN.1.

    That likely means consumers will be presented with different vaccines in the fall, which the FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee advised against.

    “I do think about some potential for confusion, particularly if there were different variants included in different vaccines,” Dr. Archana Chatterjee, one of the advisers, said during the committee’s recent meeting. “There’s enough confusion already about this vaccine.”

    Pfizer and Moderna, which produce modified messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) vaccines, have said they can produce vaccines targeting KP.2 or JN.1. However, Novavax, which makes a protein-based vaccine, has said it developed a JN.1 vaccine and would not be able to shift to a KP.2-based product in time for the fall. Protein-based vaccines require more manufacturing time than mRNA shots.

    JN.1 was displaced in May in the United States by KP.2 and KP.3, two sublineages, according to estimates from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. As of June 8, KP.3 was responsible for a quarter of the cases in the United States, and KP.2 was responsible for 22.5 percent of the cases in the country, according to the estimates.

    The strains LB.1 and XDV.1 are also on the rise.

    Advisers had noted that by the time the vaccines are available in September, the circulating strains might be different. That’s one reason they recommended targeting JN.1.

    “If we’re going to stick with a monovalent for now, the trunk of the tree is the best bet,” said Dr. Bruce Gellin, another adviser.

    Some advisers said they thought the new vaccines should contain multiple strains, but FDA officials rejected that advice and said the new shots will be monovalent.

    The currently available vaccines from Pfizer, Moderna, and Novavax target the XBB.1.5, which was displaced in 2023 before the shots were brought to the market. They have been taken by 22.5 percent of adults and 14.4 percent of children, according to government surveys. The effectiveness of the vaccines quickly drops, according to data presented at the FDA meeting. [delete]

    Officials say the vaccines will likely be updated once a year moving forward in a bid to counter waning effectiveness.

    New Studies

    The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, meanwhile, announced Thursday it is committing $500 million for clinical trials evaluating experimental vaccines against COVID-19. [delete]

    The vaccines are administered as a nasal spray or a pill, while the shots on the market are administered by needle.

    The bulk of the money is going to California-based Vaxart, which is developing a pill vaccine.

    New York-based Castlevax and Georgia-based Cyanvac are also receiving funds for their intranasal vaccine candidates.

    “We are making progress on the development of cutting-edge treatments, such as vaccines administered as a nasal spray or as a pill,“ Health Secretary Xavier Becerra said in a statement. ”The Biden-Harris Administration won’t stop until we have the next generation of innovative vaccines, therapeutics, and other tools to protect against COVID-19, or any other pathogen that could threaten the American public.”

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/14/2024 – 17:15

  • NATO Expansion: A New Detailed Timeline
    NATO Expansion: A New Detailed Timeline

    The official website of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization has since January of this year featured an entire page which seeks to “debunk” what it calls “Russian disinformation on NATO”. 

    The series of “myths” that the official NATO page sets out to dispel in one section mocks the very term “NATO expansion”—strongly suggesting that it’s so misleading, the words shouldn’t even be used in conversation or in media reporting.

    Here is what NATO claims as part of its ‘debunking’ and setting forth of ‘facts’…

    The wording “NATO expansion” is already part of the myth. NATO did not hunt for new members or want to “expand eastward.” NATO respects every nation’s right to choose its own path. NATO membership is a decision for NATO Allies and those countries who wish to join alone.

    Via Reuters

    In recent days Terry Cowan – a geopolitical commentator and Lecturer of History at University of Texas at Tyler – has compiled a new and very helpful timeline documenting the history of NATO’s eastward expansion to Russia’s doorstep. 

    Below is professor Cowan’s NATO Expansion: A Timeline.

    * * *

    There is an official narrative to our war with Russia through Ukrainian proxies. To be sure, Russian troops did cross the Ukrainian border, and territorial integrity is important to us, except, of course, when it isn’t.  President Biden enunciated it on the day Russian troops poured over the Ukrainian border:

    “This was never about genuine security concerns on their part. It was always about naked aggression, about Putin’s desire for empire  by any means necessary–by bullying Russia’s neighbors through coercion and corruption, by changing  borders by force, and, ultimately, by choosing a war without a cause.”

    Biden has reiterated that view, certainly less articulately, in recent days at the D-Day observances in Normandy, but the basic outline is still there, to-wit:

    1. Our heavy involvement in Ukraine since 1991 did nothing to contribute to the conflict.

    2. Russia’s security concerns about the advancement of NATO eastward are silly.

    3. There are bullies in the world, but the bully is never us.

    4. Although the 4th largest economy in the world (in purchasing power), Russia still longs to recreate the Soviet Union.

    5. Russia is corrupt, although their current leader is elected, while Ukraine is not corrupt, although their current leader rules by martial law.

    6. Changing borders is wrong, when Russia does it. When we do it (Kosovo), it is for humanitarian reasons.

    7. No actions by the West or Ukraine over 8 years against Russian speakers in the Donbass that resulted in 14,000 deaths provide any justification for Russia’s actions.

    8. Russia is bad, the West is good.

    So there you have it. This is our official narrative. This aligns with our sentiments and comforts our ideological prejudices, even if it is lacks much in the way of self-awareness.

    There is another narrative, however; one that is not ideologically-driven and is buttressed by actual facts. That is the story Glenn Diesen tells in The Ukraine War & the Eurasian World Order. What I have done is to construct a Time Line of NATO expansion, taken from Diesen’s narrative. I find it compelling. 

    NATO Expansion: A Timeline

    From: The Ukraine War & the Eurasian World Order by Glenn Diesen (Atlanta: Clarity Press, Inc., 2024)

    1975

    The Helsinki Accords

    Outlined a common framework for European security

    1987

    George Kennan: 

    “Were the Soviet Union to sink tomorrow under the waters of the ocean, the American military-industrial complex would have to go on, substantially unchanged until some other adversary could be invented.  Anything else would be an unacceptable shock to the American economy.”

    1989

    “Common European Home”

    Gorbachev’s plan to demilitarize Europe by disbanding both the Warsaw Pact & NATO

    “Europe Whole and Free”

    The U.S. rejected Gorbachev’s plan; offers universalism of liberal democracy as the foundation for a common Europe

    Malta Summit

    Negotiated end to the Cold War; Russia would not use military to suppress democracy movements in eastern Europe; Russia agreed to unification of Germany; the U.S. (Bush & SoS James Baker) promised NATO would expand “not one inch eastward.”  These promises were not only  made by Bush & Baker, but by Hans-Dietrich Genscher (the West German foreign minister), Helmut Kohl, Robert Gates, Francois Mitterrand, Margaret Thatcher, Douglas Hurd, John Major, and Manfred Wörner.

    1990

    The Charter of Paris for a New Europe

    Based on Helsinki Accords, sovereign equality with no dividing lines, to preserve principles of CoP, NATO would have to remain a status quo power

    1994

    Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE)

    Translated Helsinki Accords & Charter of Paris into an actual security organization; dismissed by the U.S.

    1994

    The U.S. began to pursue NATO expansion under old slogan “Europe Whole and Free”; the West failed to reform/transform itself after end of Cold War–became fundamentally militaristic with the assumption of superiority in light of Russia’s weakness.

    1994

    “Partnership for Peace”

    President Clinton advocated this as an alternative to NATO expansion; instead became stepping-stone t0 NATO membership. “Clinton was talking out of both sides of his mouth.”  Boris Yeltsin saw this as the beginning of a new split in Europe. Secretary of Defense William Perry argued against expansion, but was met with response of “Who cares what they think?  They’re a third-rate power.”

    1994

    Boris Yeltsin

    “History demonstrates that it is a dangerous illusion to suppose that the destinies of continents and of the world community in general can somehow be managed from single capital.”

    1995

    20 former U.S. officials wrote open letter opposing NATO expansion, “convincing most  Russians that the United States and the West are attempting to isolate, encircle and subordinate them, rather than integrating them into a new European system of collective security.”

    1996

    President Clinton:

    “We keep tellin ol’ Boris, ‘O.K., now, here’s what you’ve got to do next–here’s some more shit for your face.”

    1997

    50 prominent U.S. foreign policy experts sent letter to President Clinton warning that NATO expansion “is a policy error of historic proportions.”

    George Kennan: 

    “expanding NATO would be the most fateful error of American policy in the entire post-cold war era…Why with all the hopeful possibilities engendered by the end of the cold war, should East-West relations become centered on the question of who would be allied with whom and, by implication, against whom.”

    1997

    Ambassador Jack Matlock argued that Washington repeated the same mistake made at Versailles in 1919 by excluding Russian and establishing a security order that would perpetuate the weakness of Russia.

    1997

    Madeleine Albright: 

    “…if Russia doesn’t work out the way that we are hoping it will…NATO is there.” 

    The justification of NATO’s post-Cold War existence was therefore to respond to the security threats that had been created by its expansion.

    Former Secretary of State James Baker warned that the purported need for an insurance policy could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.:  “The best way to find an enemy is to look for one, and I worry that that is what we are doing when we try to isolate Russia.”

    Ambassador Jack Matlock:

    “May well go down in history as the most profound strategic blunder made since the end of the Cold War.”

    Zbigniew Brzezinski

    “Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire.”

    1998

    George Kennan:

    “I think it is the beginning of a new cold war…There was no reason for this whatsoever.  No one was threatening anybody else.  This expansion would make the Founding Fathers of this country turn over in their graves…Of course there is going to be a bad reaction from Russia, and then [the NATO expanders] will say that we always told you that is how the Russians are–but this is just wrong.” 

    1999

    NATO invasion of Yugoslavia

    NATO represents European security and can supersede international law.  Henry Kissinger warned that this transformation of NATO from a defensive alliance into an offensive alliance contradicted our repeated assurances to Russia that they had nothing to fear from a NATO expansion.

    NATO occupies Kosovo

    NATO obtains UN mandate to occupy the Kosovo region of Yugoslavia under the specific condition of upholding Yugoslavia’s territorial integrity.  Used as venue for NATO base in the Balkans, and to change realities on the ground.  

    On the last day of the year, Boris Yeltsin steps down and handed presidency over to his prime minister, Vladimir Putin.

    2001

    The U.S. announced it would unilaterally withdraw from the 1972 AMB Treaty, in order to develop strategic missile defense, a “preemptive counterforce capability against Russia and China.

    9/11: Putin is the first foreign leader to contact George W. Bush, offers sympathy & support; provided important intelligence and logistical network support for the invasion of Afghanistan.

    2004

    Color Revolutions

    The U.S. promoted successful coups around Russia’s periphery:  Ukraine & Georgia. Orange Revolution in Ukraine:  popular demands for democratic reforms and tackling corruption were hijacked by international NGOs (NED, Freedom House, USAID); “an American creation, a sophisticated and brilliantly conceived exercise in western branding and mass marketing…” a “postmodern coup d’état…CIA-sponsored third world uprising of cold war days adapted to post-Soviet conditions.”

    “Single Economic Space”

    Proposal by Russia to include Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan; denounced in the West as an expression of “imperial ambitions” that had to be resisted.

    2005

    Common Spaces Agreement

    Committed both Russia and EU to preventing new dividing lines; regional cooperation.

    2007

    Munich Security Conference

    Putin summarizes Russia’s concerns about “one centre of authority, one centre of Force, one centre of decision-making…that NATO has put its frontline forces on our borders…against whom is this expansion intended?”

    Condoleezza Rice

    Mocked Russia’s concerns about the U.S. placing 10 interceptive missiles in Eastern Europe:  “purely ludicrous, and everybody knows it.”  Within a few years, the number had risen to several hundred.

    2008

    Moscow proposed new pan-European security architecture; opposed by West as feared it would weaken NATO.

    NATO Bucharest Summit

    “We agreed today that these countries [Ukraine and Georgia] will become members of NATO.” A Gallup poll taken in Ukraine at the time revealed that 46% valued closer ties to Russia, while only 10% favored closer ties with the U.S. over Russia.

    Ambassador William Burns

    “Not only does Russia perceive encirclement, and efforts to undermine Russia’s Influence in the region, but it also fears unpredictable and uncontrolled consequences Which would seriously affect Russian security interests…Russia is particularly worried  that the strong divisions in Ukraine over NATO membership, with much of the ethnic-Russian community against membership, could lead to a major split, involving violence or at worst, civil war.  In that eventuality, Russia would have to decide whether to intervene; a decision Russia does not want to have to face.”

    “Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all redlines for the Russian elite (not just Putin)…I have yet to find anyone who views Ukraine in NATO as anything other than a direct challenge to Russian interests…Today’s Russia will respond.”

    British Ambassador Roderic Lyne

    “It was stupid on every level. If you want to start a war with Russia, that’s the best way of doing it.” 

    Fiona Hill

    She warned Bush that “bring Ukraine and Georgia closer to NATO as a provocative move that would likely provoke pre-emptive Russian military action. But ultimately, our warnings weren’t heeded.”

    Angela Merkel

    Russia would view this as a “declaration of war.”

    2010

    Moscow proposes EU-Russia Free Trade Zone “to facilitate a Greater Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok.”  Dismissed as sinister plot to divide the West.

    President Yanukovich approved a bill that cemented Ukraine’s neutrality:  “intention of becoming a permanently neutral state that does not participate in military blocs.”

    2013 

    The EU pressured Ukraine to drop its neutral stance and offered the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area instead; effectively an ultimatum to choose either the West or Russia.   Russia countered with trilateral EU-Uraine-Russia agreement which the EU rejected out of hand, “the times for limited sovereignty are over in Europe.”

    Hillary Clinton

    On the Eurasian Economic Union:  “We are trying to figure out effective ways to slow down or prevent it.”

    2014

    National Endowment for Democracy (NED)

    “Ukraine is the biggest prize…Putin may find himself on the losing end not just in the near abroad but within Russia itself.”

    Coup

    Victoria Nuland:  “the U.S. had invested almost $5 billion since 1991 to assist Ukraine in achieving ‘the future it deserves.’”  Nuland caught deciding who should be in the new Ukrainian government and who should be kept out, at a time when Yanukovich was still the lawful president of Ukraine.”

    “The most overt coup d’état in history”

    “In 2014 the United States backed an uprising–in its final stages a violent uprising–against the legitimately elected Ukrainian government of Viktor Yanukovych, which was pro-Russian.”

    Crimea

    Vladimir Putin: “They cheated us again and again, made decisions behind our back, presenting us with completed facts.  That’s the way it was with the expansion of NATO, in the east, with the deployment of military infrastructure at our borders.  They always told us the same thing: ‘Well, this doesn’t involve you.’”

    Vladimir Putin speech

    “After the revolution, the Bolsheviks, for a number of reasons–may God judge them– added large sections of the historical South of Russia to the Republic of Ukraine. This was done with no consideration for the ethnic makeup of the population, and today these areas form the southeast of Ukraine.  Then, in 1954, a decision was made to transfer the Crimean region to Ukraine, along with Sevastopol, despite the fact that it was a city of union subordination.  This was the personal initiative of the Communist Party head Nikita Khrushchev.

    Henry Kissinger

    “…if Ukraine is to survive and thrive, it must not be either side’s outpost against the other-it should function as a bridge between them…any attempt by one wing of Ukraine to dominate the other–as has often been the pattern–would lead eventually to civil war or break up.”

    “Washington’s planned seizure of Russia’s historic, legitimate warm-water naval base in Crimea failed.”

    Washington’s reference to the sacred principle of territorial integrity in accordance with international law was unconvincing as the West’s rules-based international order had introduced the right to self-determination as a competing principle to territorial integrity.  It was therefore problematic to make a convincing legal case for why the secession of Crimea was different from the secession of Kosovo.

    Approximately 75% of Ukraine’s naval personnel defected to Russia or quit the Ukrainian navy.

    Stephen Walt

    “The real question, however, is why Obama and his advisors thought the United States and the European Union could help engineer the ouster of a democratically elected and pro-Russian leader in Ukraine and expect Vladimir Putin to go along with it.”

    In accordance with the rules-based international order, NATO countries refer to liberal democratic norms to exempt themselves from constraints imposed by international law.

    2015 

    Minsk-2 Agreement

    Ukraine, Donbass, Germany, France, Russia agreed to pursue diplomatic reform for Donbass autonomy; never pursued.  Victoria Nuland described Angela Merkel as “defeatist,” John McCain referred to it as “Moscow Bullshit.”

    Mikhail Gorbachev

    “NATO’s eastward expansion has destroyed the European security architecture as it was defined in the Helsinki Final Act in 1975.  The eastern expansion was a 180-degree reversal, a departure from the decision of the Paris Charter in 1990 taken together by al the European states to put the Cold War behind us for good.  Russian proposals, like the one by former President Dmitri Medvedev that we should sit down together to work on a new security architecture, were arrogantly ignored by the West.  We are now seeing the results.”

    2019

    The U.S. unilaterally withdraws from the INF Treaty

    Russia demanded that the U.S. not place missiles in Ukraine as they had done in  Poland and Romania.

    2021

    The UK signed a naval agreement with Ukraine.

    NATO pushed the prospect of membership for Ukraine

    “We reiterate the decision made at the 2008 Bucharest Summit that Ukraine will become a member of the Alliance.”

    Russia sent the U.S. a draft treaty outlining the conditions to restore security and stability in Europe.  President Biden responded “I don’t accept anyone’s red line.”

    2022

    Vladimir Putin

    “Listen attentively to what I am saying.  It is written into Ukraine’s doctrines that it wants to take Crimea back, by force if necessary.  This is not what Ukrainian officials say in public.  This is written in their documents…Imagine that Ukraine is a NATO country and starts these military operations.  What are we supposed to do?  Fight against the NATO bloc?  Has anyone given at least some thought to this? Apparently not.”

    Ambassador Jack Matlock

    “The war might have been prevented–probably would have been prevented–if Ukraine had been willing to abide by the Minsk Agreement, recognize the Donbass as an autonomous entity within Ukraine, avoid NATO military advisors, and pledge not to enter NATO.”

    John Mearsheimer

    “The United States and its European allies share most of the responsibility for the crisis.  The taproot of the trouble is NATO enlargement.”

    President Biden

    “This was never about genuine security concerns on their part.  It was always about naked aggression, about Putin’s desire for empire  by any means necessary–by bullying Russia’s neighbors through coercion and corruption, by changing  borders by force, and, ultimately, by choosing a war without a cause.”

    Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg:

    “Weapons are the way to peace.”

    Through Turkish intermediation, Russia and Ukraine reach an agreement. “Russia would withdraw to its position on February 23, when it controlled part of the Donbas region and all of Crimea, and in exchange, Ukraine would promise not to seek NATO membership and instead receive security guarantees from a number of countries.”

    Boris Johnson came to Kiev with two messages:  “The first is that Putin is a war criminal, he should be pressured , not negotiated with.  And the second is that even if Ukraine is ready to sign some agreements on guarantees with Putin, they [the UK and the U.S.] are not.

    “The war in Ukraine can end only with Valdimir Putin’s defeat.”  President Zelensky invoked a degree making it illegal to negotiate with Putin.  Any political settlement would require the removal of Putin from power.

    2023

    Victoria Nuland:

    “I am, and I think the Administration is, very gratified to know that Nord Stream 2 is now, as you like, to say, a hunk of metal at the bottom of the sea.”

    The U.S.–with the cooperation of Norway–had attacked the gas pipelines.

    Subscribe to New Notes from a Commonplace Book here

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/14/2024 – 16:50

  • US Signs $23 Billion F-16 Deal With Turkey
    US Signs $23 Billion F-16 Deal With Turkey

    Via The Libertarian Institute

    The US has inked a $23 billion deal with Turkey for 40 F-16 warplanes. Washington promised to sell dozens of the advanced fighter jets to Ankara and upgrade scores of Turkish F-16s in exchange for Turkey approving Sweden’s NATO membership. 

    The AFP reported the deal was signed on Thursday. “The contract was signed and delegations from both sides are negotiating the details,” Turkish defense ministry sources told the outlet.

    Getty Images

    The State Department said last week that it had taken significant steps towards finalizing the deal, which was proof of the deep military relationship between Washington and Ankara. 

    “Just the latest example of US enduring commitment to security partnership with Turkey,” it said in a statement on US government social media accounts.

    In January, President Biden sent a letter to Congress pushing Capitol Hill to approve the sale of F-16s to Turkey. Washington had conditioned the deal on Ankara lifting its months-long obstruction of Stockholm joining NATO. 

    Since joining the bloc in March, Sweden has taken an aggressive approach towards Russia. Stockholm has approved Kiev using its weapons against targets inside Russia, and top Swedish officials have suggested Stockholm could join NATO’s nuclear weapons sharing program. 

    Turkey was initially a partner in the F-35 project and was set to receive the latest American warplane. However, during the Trump administration, Ankara purchased an advanced missile defense system from Moscow, leading Washington to cut Turkey from the program. 

    When the sale was first approved to advance forward earlier this year, US ambassador to Turkey Jeff Flake described the sale as a “great step forward.” He said, “Turkiye’s F-16 fleet is critical to NATO’s strength, ensuring future interoperability among Allies.”

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/14/2024 – 16:25

  • US Nuclear Attack Sub, Canadian Warship In Cuba Just Behind Russian Naval Group
    US Nuclear Attack Sub, Canadian Warship In Cuba Just Behind Russian Naval Group

    A US Navy fast-attack submarine has surfaced and arrived in Cuba’s Guantanamo Bay, just on the heels of a group of Russian warships having arrived in Havana merely the day prior. The American nuclear-powered USS Helena arrived at the US base on Thursday, while a Canadian navy patrol ship has followed on Friday.

    The Pentagon’s US Southern Command in a statement called it “a routine port visit…while conducting its global maritime security and national defense mission.” While both Moscow and Washington have tried to downplay these mirror deployments to Cuban waters, the whole spectacle is reminiscent of the Cold War, given it seems clear the US is using the nuclear submarine to signal strongly in response to Russia.

    Illustrative: Navy file image

    All of this is taking place a mere 100 miles off the Florida coast. The Admiral Gorshkov frigate and the nuclear-powered submarine Kazan just before arriving in Cuba had earlier this week conducted “high-precision missile weapons” training in the Atlantic Ocean.

    In an effort to calm tensions that are the result of Russian warships being in the Caribbean, Cuba’s Foreign Ministry assured the world that “None of the vessels carries nuclear weapons,” in reference to the Russian vessels. Cuba further said the official Russian Navy visit to the port “does not represent any threat to the region.”

    Military reports have indicted that the Helena has enough food and supplies on board to remain on station for up to an estimated three months.

    Despite current efforts to downplay these maneuvers, Newsweek has pointed out that “It is unusual for the United States and other countries to disclose the precise locations of their submarines, but surfacing a stealth boat sends an unmissable military signal to potential adversaries.”

    “The vessel’s location and transit were previously planned,” the Pentagon has said, but at the same time US defense officials have told various media publications that US and Canadian forces had been “actively monitoring” the Russian naval group’s movements across the Atlantic and as it came near the US East coast.

    “We’re always, constantly going to monitor any foreign vessels operating near U.S. territorial waters,” a Pentagon press spokesperson said this week. “We of course take it seriously, but these exercises don’t pose a threat to the United States.”

    Russian state media has declared that the Russian sub and accompanying vessels docking in Cuba gives the US a dose of its own medicine.

    “I think we can definitely see this as a direct Russian reply to the general US declaration of conducting what it calls ‘Freedom of navigation’ exercises. Although, as far as we know, no one has challenged the freedom of navigation,”  geopolitical analyst and American citizen Mark Sleboda, who lives in Russia, has told Sputnik.

    Source: Newsweek/OSM-Boundaries

    President Biden has meanwhile at the Group of Seven summit in Italy sought to signal a message of resolve and commitment on Ukraine, with the White House saying that Putin “just cannot wait us out” and that Washington support to Kiev is not going to wane.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/14/2024 – 15:20

  • Silver Demand In The Solar Sector Could Squeeze Silver Supply In The Future
    Silver Demand In The Solar Sector Could Squeeze Silver Supply In The Future

    Authored by Mike Maharrey via Money Metals,

    Silver use by the solar energy sector is one of the primary factors driving the overall demand for silver, and there is reason to believe photovoltaic silver off-take will continue to increase in the years ahead.

    Not only is the demand for silver panels growing, but the amount of silver used in each panel is also increasing.

    Industrial demand for silver set a record of 654.4 million ounces in 2023 and it is expected to hit new highs this year. According to the Silver Institute, ongoing structural gains from green economy applications underpinned this surge in silver demand.

    “Higher than expected photovoltaic (PV) capacity additions and faster adoption of new-generation solar cells raised global electrical & electronics demand by a substantial 20 percent. At the same time, other green-related applications, including power grid construction and automotive electrification, also contributed to the gains.”

    Silver is the best conductor of electricity of all metals at room temperature. That makes it a vital input in the production of solar panels.  

    To manufacture a solar panel, silver is formed into a paste that is applied to the front and back of silicon photovoltaic cells. The front side collects the electrons generated when sunlight strikes the cell, while the back side helps to complete the electrical circuit.

    Each solar panel uses approximately 20 grams (0.643 ounces) of silver. While this is a relatively small amount, the total adds up quickly when you consider the number of panels produced each year. The solar industry used approximately 100 million ounces of silver in 2023, accounting for about 14 percent of total silver demand.

    Several years ago, analysts assumed that the amount of silver used in solar panels would decline over time with the development of new technologies. However, a Saxo Bank report in 2020 disputed this claim, saying, “Potential substitute metals cannot match silver in terms of energy output per solar panel.”

    “Further, due to technical hurdles, non-silver PVs tend to be less reliable and have shorter lifespans, presenting serious issues for their widespread commercial development.”

    It turns out, this analysis was correct. Newer more efficient technologies use 20 to 120 percent more silver.

    In 2020, Passivated Emitter and Rear Cell (PERC) technology was the standard, accounting for virtually the entire solar market. A PERC solar panel uses about 10 milligrams of silver per watt.

    By 2022, PERC technology was being replaced by Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact (TOPCon) cells. This advanced technology enhances the efficiency of solar cells by improving the way they handle electron flow. A TOPCon cell is cheaper to produce but uses more silver than a PERC solar panel. It contains about 13 milligrams of silver per watt.

    Now, heterojunction (HJT) technology is beginning to dominate the solar market. HJT cells are even more efficient than TOPCon technology and can capture energy on both sides of the panel. They are also more environmentally friendly. But they use even more silver – about 22 milligrams per watt. HJT cells only made up a small part of the market in 2023, but demand for these more efficient panels is expected to grow.

    With demand for solar power increasing along with the amount of silver used in each panel, analysts believe that solar panel production will consume increasingly large amounts of silver in the future. 

    According to a research paper by scientists at the University of New South Wales, solar manufacturers will likely require over 20 percent of the current annual silver supply by 2027.

    By 2050, solar panel production will use approximately 85–98 percent of the current global silver reserves.

    The green energy sector is also essentially recession-proof because it is being driven, incentivized, and in some cases directly funded by governments around the world.

    The silver market is already running significant deficits with silver demand outstripping supply. The structural deficit in 2023 came in at 184.3 million ounces.

    While there is still a large silver stock available, market deficits will eventually deplete the reserve of available metal. We could see a significant supply squeeze in the coming years.

    Silver is not currently priced for these supply and demand dynamics.

    It’s also important to remember that while industrial demand is an important factor driving the price, silver is still fundamentally a monetary metal. As such, the price tends to track with gold over time. If you are bullish on gold, you should be even more bullish on silver. In fact, silver tends to outperform gold in a gold bull market.

    Given the supply and demand dynamics, the economic environment, and a historically wide gold-silver ratio that indicates silver is underpriced, there are plenty of reasons to think silver will shine in the future.

    Mike Maharrey is a journalist and market analyst for MoneyMetals.com with over a decade of experience in precious metals. He holds a BS in accounting from the University of Kentucky and a BA in journalism from the University of South Florida.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/14/2024 – 14:55

  • "Alt-Protein": Pentagon Contractor Wants To Feed US Troops Lab-Grown Meat To "Reduce CO2 Footprint"
    “Alt-Protein”: Pentagon Contractor Wants To Feed US Troops Lab-Grown Meat To “Reduce CO2 Footprint”

    A Pentagon contractor that has received more than $500 million from the Defense Department wants to produce lab-grown meat for America’s soldiers in order to “reduce the CO2 footprint” at Defense Department outposts, the Free Beacon reports.

    BioMADE, a public-private DoD contractor, “is a Manufacturing Innovation Institute (MII) sponsored by the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) with a vision to build a sustainable, domestic, end-to-end bioindustrial manufacturing ecosystem,” according to a project overview posted last month. It is seeking proposals to develop “innovations in food production that reduce the CO2 footprint of food production at … DoD operational environments,” which include “novel cell culture methods suitable for the production of cultivated meat/protein,” aka lab grown meat.

    This type of meat is grown in a lab from animal cells with the aid of other chemicals, and has emerged as a flashpoint in debates about the efficacy and morality of manufacturing meat products without slaughtering animals.

    BioMADE—which earlier this year received a $450 million infusion of taxpayer cash—maintains that lab-grown food products will reduce the Pentagon’s carbon footprint, a priority for the American military as it pursues a Biden administration-mandate to address climate change and other cultural issues that critics describe as “woke.” -Free Beacon

    “Innovations in food production that reduce the CO2 footprint of food production at and/or transport to DoD operational environments are solicited,” the company said in an informational document. “These could include, but are not limited to, production of nutrient-dense military rations via fermentation processes, utilizing one carbon molecule (C1) feedstocks for food production, and novel cell culture methods suitable for the production of cultivated meat/protein.”

    The company is also soliciting proposals for “processes that convert greenhouse gasses,” as well as “projects that develop bioproducts useful in mitigating the negative environmental impacts either regionally or globally,” including “bioproducts that can be used to prevent or slow coastal erosion

    The project has fallen under heavy scrutiny from critics, who say that US troops should not be used as guinea pigs for experimental food.

    “Taxpayer dollars should not be used to fund the lab-grown meat sector,” said Jack Hubbard, executive director at the Center for the Environment and Welfare, a consumer group that analyzes emerging markets such as bioengineered meat. “Our troops deserve better than to be served lab-grown meat, produced in bioreactors with immortalized cells and chemicals.”

    “Unfortunately, this effort is being driven by an agenda that is political and anti-farmer. Our soldiers should never be used as guinea pigs,” he continued.

    The Pentagon and its outside partners, as part of its push to fund “alt-protein projects,” made up to $2 million available for such projects, according to the publication Alt-Meat.

    Supporters of these efforts say U.S. national security hinges on addressing global change and pursuing new technologies that enable products like lab grown meat. -Free Beacon

    According to former DoD official Matt Spence in 2021, “One of the most immediate, politically feasible, and high-impact ways to do this [address climate change] is for the U.S. government to invest in and accelerate alternative ways to produce meat.”

    That said, UC Davis published a report last year suggesting that “lab-grown meat’s carbon footprint [is] potentially worse than retail beef.”

    “If companies are having to purify growth media to pharmaceutical levels, it uses more resources, which then increases global warming potential,” said lead author, Derrick Risner of the college’s Department of Food Science and Technology. “If this product continues to be produced using the ‘pharma’ approach, it’s going to be worse for the environment and more expensive than conventional beef production.”

    “Our findings suggest that cultured meat is not inherently better for the environment than conventional beef. It’s not a panacea,” said corresponding author Edward Spang, an associate professor in the Department of Food Science and Technology. “It’s possible we could reduce its environmental impact in the future, but it will require significant technical advancement to simultaneously increase the performance and decrease the cost of the cell culture media.“

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/14/2024 – 14:35

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Jun 13

Today’s News 13th June 2024

  • FOMC Holds Rates As Expected, Dot-Plot Shifts More Hawkish In 2024
    FOMC Holds Rates As Expected, Dot-Plot Shifts More Hawkish In 2024

    Since the last FOMC statement (on May 1st), stocks and bonds have outperformed (with the former at record highs), gold is flat while the dollar is down modestly. Amid all that, oil is down significantly…

    Source: Bloomberg

    These market moves have been prompted by a ‘bad news is good news’ regime as US macro data has serially disappointed…

    Source: Bloomberg

    …adding significantly to hopes for a more dovish Fed (2 cuts priced in for 2024 and an additional 92bps of cuts in 2025)…

    Source: Bloomberg

    The good news is that while growth ‘surprises’ have slipped lower, inflation ‘surprises’ have also drifted lower after four months of stagflationary signals worrying markets…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Today we also get to see a new DotPlot, which is expected to show and adjustment down from three to two cuts for 2024 (with a risk to an adjustment down to just one cut)…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Of course, as a reminder, the global backdrop for today’s Fed decision is that big US trading partners, like Canada and the euro area, have cut interest rates even as inflation remains an issue.

    So, What Did The Fed Do?

    The Fed held rates unchanged as expected…

    *FED HOLDS BENCHMARK RATE IN 5.25-5.5% TARGET RANGE

    And changed wording on inflation (from a “lack” of progress):

    *FED: INFLATION MADE MODEST FURTHER PROGRESS IN RECENT MONTHS

    BUT…

    The dot-plot was hawkish, adjust to just one 25bps cut in 2024 (and four 25bps cuts in 2025)

    *FOMC MEDIAN FORECAST SHOWS 25 BPS RATE CUTS IN ’24 VS 75 BPS

    *FOMC MEDIAN FORECAST SHOWS 100 BPS RATE CUTS IN ’25 VS 75 BPS

    There were no dissents today, extending the streak of zero votes against the FOMC policy decision to 16 meetings, the longest period of no dissents since Alan Greenspan’s 17-meeting streak from August 2003 to September 2005 – when Mark Olson dissented.

    Read the full redline below (barely changed):

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/12/2024 – 14:00

  • Elliott Management May Force Southwest To Abandon 'Bags Fly Free' Policy
    Elliott Management May Force Southwest To Abandon ‘Bags Fly Free’ Policy

    With activist hedge fund Elliott Management in the pilot’s seat at Southwest Airlines, the budget airline’s popular “bags fly free” policy is under scrutiny.

    If Paul Singer gets his way, the airline’s popular “bags fly free” policy could end. This policy is a huge value proposition for customers when choosing a carrier to fly across the US. 

    According to Bloomberg… 

    “Elliott appears to have a different view, noting in a website presentation that Southwest has “written off” revenue opportunities implemented across the industry over the past 15 years, including assigned seating, premium products, a bare bones basic economy fare and checked bag fees.” 

    Southwest’s policy clearly stated on its website: “Each Customer is allowed two free checked bags.” 

    Elliott is right to consider scrapping the policy to boost additional revenue for the struggling carrier, which recently withdrew its 2024 fiscal outlook due to delays in Boeing jet deliveries.

    According to the US Transportation Department, in 2023, the airline only collected $73 million in checked bag fees, while American Airlines took in $1.4 billion. Spirit Airlines collected $988 million, and Frontier Group collected about $880 million. 

    Data from IdeaWorks and CarTrawler show that airlines globally collected $33.3 billion in baggage fees last year, up nearly 15% from 2023. 

    President of IdeaWorks, Jay Sorensen said if Southwest were to drop its “bags fly free” policy because of pressure from Elliot, that could trigger an exodus from loyal customers. 

    Sorensen said such a change could be “traumatic” to the airline’s customers, culture, and employees.

    Conor Cunningham, a Melius Research analyst, said the policy is “so ingrained in the culture” that he “can’t imagine that they’d give up on it.” 

    Southwest’s “value proposition and something customers know they are getting when they travel with us,” Cunningham said. 

    Henry Harteveldt, a travel industry analyst and founder of Atmosphere Research Group, said, “I don’t think Southwest can dismiss not charging for bags anymore, not when you have an activist investor sitting on $1.9 billion of your stock.” 

    In markets year-to-date, Southwest shares have broadly underperformed the S&P airline index. 

    “There are going to be decisions that Elliott may force on the airline, with Southwest holding its nose. You cannot ignore that shareholder,” Harteveldt concluded. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/12/2024 – 13:40

  • FOMC Preview: From Three Rate Cuts To Two
    FOMC Preview: From Three Rate Cuts To Two

    Coming just hours after the May CPI print, tomorrow’s – and the month’s – main event is the FOMC decision due at 2pm ET, when the Fed is widely expected to leave rates on hold at 5.25-5.50%, and the statement will likely also largely be reiterated after slight tweaks in the May statement. Attention will fall on the Summary of Economic projections, and more specifically, the Dot Plot, where the number of projected rate cuts in 2024 will be trimmed from 3 to 2. After a string of hot inflation reports in Q1, the Fed has been stressing that the luxury of a strong economy gives the Fed time to be patient before acting, and the hot NFP released (assuming of course that a drop of 625,000 full-time jobs is viewed as “strong”), last week only gives the Fed more time. Therefore, it is likely the 2024 median FFR will be revised up from the 4.6% – or equivalent to 3 rate cuts over the remainder of 2024 – pencilled in at the March meeting.

    Indeed, money markets currently look for between one or two rate cuts this year, with WSJ’s Fed mouthpiece Nick “Nikileaks” Timiraos confirming “they know that we know that they know that we know”, or that “most sell-side economists and other professional Fed watchers now anticipate one or two rate cuts this year in either September or December”. In other words, the ground is set for the dots to tighten, but the question is by how much: one, two or three cuts? It is also worth noting that the May US CPI report will be released on the morning of the FOMC, which will impact expectations of the dot plot going into the rate decision. With FOMC members already in possession of the May CPI report, Powell has previously said that the Fed is allowed and encouraged to update their forecasts until late morning of the meeting, therefore the data will likely be incorporated into the Fed’s decision-making and forecasts. Then, once the rate decision, statement and SEPs are released, attention will turn to Fed Chair Powell’s Press conference at 19:30 BST / 14:30 EDT.

    POLICY: The Fed is widely expected to leave rates on hold at its June meeting with the Fed not yet convinced inflation is returning to target in a sustained manner, despite rate cuts from global peers such as the ECB and BoC last week. Given tweaks to the statement at the last meeting, noting there has been a lack of further progress towards the 2% goal and that risks to the mandate have moved towards better balance, they will unlikely alter the statement much. It will also likely repeat “The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.” Nonetheless, the focus of this meeting will be on the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEPs), or “Dot Plots”.

    FOMC POLICY STATEMENT

    Current conditions: Morgan Stanley look for an important change to the characterization of inflation that is an acknowledgement of improvement in inflation data through April, though still not enough improvement to be convincing.

    Risk to the statement: Since the last FOMC meeting, there has been a single improved inflation print in April. The risk is that FOMC officials have not yet gained enough conviction, and that they pair unchanged inflation language with a more concentrated move in the dot-plot to fewer cuts this year.

    SUMMARY ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS: With the Fed recently stressing that the luxury of a strong economy gives the Fed time to be patient before acting, it is likely the 2024 dot will be revised up, particularly after the May NFP report. WSJ’s Timiraos highlights that “Most sell-side economists and other professional Fed watchers now anticipate one or two rate cuts this year in either September or December”. Money markets are currently pricing in 38bps of rate cuts by year-end (fully priced for one cut, with a c. 50% probability of another 25bp cut), however, this is subject to change with the US CPI to be released on the morning of the FOMC. Which may have some sway on Fed officials’ thinking when entering their dot plots. Powell has previously said FOMC members are encouraged to update their forecasts up until mid/late morning, once the Fed has seen the data.

    The March dot plot was unchanged from December, with the median view looking for three rate cuts in 2024, with rates ending the year at 4.5-4.75% vs the current 5.25-5.50%. Nonetheless, the composition of dot plots was more hawkish, with nine members pencilling in the year-end rate at 4.6%, vs six in the December dot plots, with more dovish dots aligning with the Median. Nonetheless, it would have only taken one of the median dots to pencil in a higher rate to have lifted the median, with 8 on the FOMC pencilling in a rate above the current median. Therefore, that, accompanied by a string of hot inflation reports in 2024, as well as plenty of Fed speak suggesting they can afford to be patient before cutting rates, it is likely the 2024 median dot plot will be revised up. It is likely to pencil in just one or two rate cuts this year, instead of three. Note, the median 2025 dot is currently at 3.9% (vs December’s 3.6%), the 2026 dot is at 3.1% (vs December’s 2.9%), with the longer run rate, or neutral rate, at 2.6% (vs December’s 2.5%). Some on the Fed have suggested it is possible the Neutral Rate has risen from before (Bowman), while others suggest the neutral rate is relatively low (Waller).

    Aside from rate forecasts, the SEP will also show the updated views for Core PCE, PCE, Unemployment and real GDP. FOMC Vice Chair Williams gave his personal expectations, noting he sees inflation at 2.5% this year (vs the Fed March median SEP of 2.6% on Core, 2.4% on headline), before being closer to 2% in 2025 (vs Fed median of 2.2%). He sees 2024 growth between 2.0-2.5% (vs Fed March Median SEP of 2.1%). Williams expects unemployment of 4.0% this year (vs Fed March Median of 4.0%).

    ECONOMY: The prior statement saw a slight language tweak to suggest that risks to achieving its mandate have moved towards better balance (prev. moving into better balance), reflecting some of the concerns about an employment downturn. However, it also added a line that there has been a lack of further progress towards the committee’s 2% inflation goal. Since then, there have been mixed signals from the labor market, with the April NFP and JOLTS coming in soft, while the May NFP was much hotter than expected, although the Household survey was a disaster with full-time jobs plunging and the unemployment rate hitting 4.0%. The Fed has made it clear they are willing to hold rates higher for longer given the strength of the economy, and only in the case of an unexpected weakening of the labor market, or signs that inflation is convincingly returning to target, would they be prepared to lower rates. Meanwhile, after the hot inflation reports in Q1, the April reports were on net softer, and were seen as a welcome sign to the Fed, but still a reminder that the return to target will still be slower than initially expected.

    DOT PLOT: Goldman, along with many on Wall Street, expects the median forecast to show two cuts in 2024 (vs. three in March) to 4.875%, four cuts in 2025 (vs. three in March) to 3.875%, and three cuts in 2026 (unchanged) to 3.125%. Goldman suspects that the Fed leadership would prefer for the median dot to show a two-cut baseline in 2024 in order to retain greater flexibility to cut in Q3 if the inflation data warrant it. But the key risk is that the median could instead show just one cut in 2024, especially if the May core CPI print comes in well above the 0.3% forecast or if more FOMC participants see a 2.8% year-on-year rate of core PCE inflation as too high to justify two rate cuts. Goldman also thinks the median longer-run or neutral rate dot could tick up a touch further. FOMC participants are likely to raise their longer-run dots gradually over time because both market-based approximations of the neutral rate, namely distant forward interest rates, and the econometric models of neutral that the Fed staff tracks suggest that the neutral rate is higher than the current median estimate of 2.56%. Finally, the bank expects that in addition to gradually raising their longer-run neutral rate estimates, FOMC participants will continue to show terminal rate projections that are above their neutral rate estimates on the grounds that non-monetary policy tailwinds are boosting aggregate demand (i.e. Joe Biden’s debt tsunami) and offsetting the impact of higher interest rates on the economy.

    RECENT FED SPEAK: Fed speakers have been mostly singing from the same hymn sheet, still stressing a higher-for-longer
    approach and no rush to cut rates, noting they will be letting the data dictate decisions. Many said that a rate hike is not in the baseline outlook, although some are refusing to rule it out in case inflation were to surprisingly accelerate again. Nonetheless, although after the hot inflation reports in Q1, the April reports have started to bring some optimism that inflation is still easing, albeit at a slower pace than before, perhaps indicating it will take longer for inflation to return to the Fed’s 2% target. Officials have stressed that inflation does not need to return exactly to 2% before they cut rates, but they need to be confident that it is convincingly and sustainably on its way to target, something which they do not have at the moment, and they would need a string of good inflation reports for them to gain that confidence. Some, including Chair Powell, have noted that an unexpected weakening in the labour market could also be a reason to cut rates, even if they did not have the inflation confidence yet, but so far the labour market still shows signs of tightness and is in no way classified as an “unexpected weakening”, particularly after the May jobs report. Powell stated it would take more than “a couple of tenths” to move higher in the unemployment rate for an unexpected weakening.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/12/2024 – 13:35

  • MSNBC's Maddow Says She's Worried Trump Will Put Her In A Concentration Camp
    MSNBC’s Maddow Says She’s Worried Trump Will Put Her In A Concentration Camp

    Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

    MSNBC performative hack Rachel Maddow has declared that she is worried that if Donald Trump becomes the president again he’s going to round her up and throw her in a concentration camp with all her leftist friends.

    Yes, really.

    Maddow teamed up with CNN’s resident mole man and former Brain Stelter acolyte Oliver Darcy for a super best friends ‘we hate Trump’ interview in which she made the comments.

    Darcy told Maddow, “Trump and his allies are openly talking about weaponizing the government to seek revenge against critics in media and politics, with some of his extremist allies even talking about jailing their fellow Americans,” further asking “You’re one of his most notable critics on television. Are you worried that you could be a target?”

    Maddow replied “I’m worried about the country broadly if we put someone in power who is openly avowing that he plans to build camps to hold millions of people, and to ‘root out’ what he’s described in subhuman terms as his ‘enemy from within.’”

    “Again, history is helpful here. He’s not joking when he says this stuff, and we’ve seen what happens when people take power proclaiming that kind of agenda,” Maddow further declared.

    She continued, “I think there’s a little bit of head-in-the-sand complacency that Trump only intends to go after individual people he has already singled out. Do you really think he plans to stop at well-known liberals?”

    “When Trump invokes the Insurrection Act to deploy the U.S. military against civilians on his first day in office, do you think he then rescinds the order on day two?” the paranoid host added.

    “For that matter, what convinces you that these massive camps he’s planning are only for migrants? So, yes, I’m worried about me — but only as much as I’m worried about all of us,” Maddow concluded.

    This is the person who for four years got on TV every day and claimed Trump is secretly a Russian agent.

    She has previously stated that if Trump wins he will try to remain president for life and cancel all future elections:

    These people are completely ideologically captured and sound totally unhinged.

    They’re also psychologically projecting exactly what Democrats are trying to do to Trump on to him.

    *  *  *

    Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/12/2024 – 13:20

  • Finland In First NATO Deployment Parks Jets On Russia's Doorstep
    Finland In First NATO Deployment Parks Jets On Russia’s Doorstep

    NATO’s two newest members – Finland and Sweden – have already seen their militaries quite busy as part of recent joint exercises with the alliance. For the first time this week, another milestone has been achieved as Finland has deployed fighter jets to another NATO country, in a further reversal of the Scandinavian country’s decades-long policy of neutrality.

    Seven F-18 fighter jets have been deployed by Helsinki to a base in southeastern Romania. Reuters said based on military statements that the aircraft will “conduct air shielding missions with Romanian and British jets.” Romania has long been dubbed in Western publications as “Russia’s doorstep”.

    Finnish Air Force, file image

    Finland is hailing this as part of efforts to speed up its military integration within NATO. “I’m sure that during this enhanced air policing air shielding mission our integration into NATO will take a big leap forward,” commander of Finland’s Karelia Air Wing Johan Anttila said this week.

    Finland’s entry into the Western military alliance has in effect doubled the border now directly shared by Russia and NATO countries.

    “This will certainly lead to tension. We can only regret this,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov had earlier commented. “We had excellent relations with Finland. No one threatened anyone, there were no problems or complaints against each other. No one infringed on anyone’s interests, there was mutual respect.”

    And President Putin has previously derided Finland’s entry into NATO as all about joining “the Western club.”

    “Frankly speaking, I don’t understand why they need this. This is an absolutely meaningless step from the point of view of ensuring their own national interests,” Putin said back in March.

    “We didn’t even have troops; we removed all the troops from there, from the Russian-Finnish border,” he said. “However, it is up to them to decide. That’s what they decided. But we didn’t have troops there, now we will.”

    Meanwhile Denmark too is among those Nordic countries calling for increased defense spending and greater coordination on European defense. This has been a persistent talking point over the last months as Ukraine forces are not fairing well on the battlefield, and as Washington funds have dried up.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/12/2024 – 13:00

  • World Economic Forum Says, 'Let Them Eat Fake Meat!'
    World Economic Forum Says, ‘Let Them Eat Fake Meat!’

    Authored by Eric Utter via AmericanThinker.com,

    The globalist elites at the World Economic Forum (WEF) are calling on governments to promote fake meat and other alternative proteins in a coordinated effort to change consumers’ behavior.

    Shocking, I know.

    The authors of a white paper entitled “Creating a Vibrant Food Innovation Ecosystem: How Israel Is Advancing Alternative Proteins Across Sectors,” claim that changing humans’ eating habits will require a global effort with governments and corporations working together.

    Yes, bloated governments and big corporations working together to manipulate and coerce the little people’s behavior is a great idea!

    And perfectly befitting of fascism, or at least a robust oligarchy!

    Fake meat.

    Fake genders.

    Fake news.

    Artificial intelligence.

    I am sick of it all.

    Is anything real anymore?

    Yes, the existential danger this represents to us as humans — and formerly free and sentient beings — is all too real, indeed.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/12/2024 – 12:40

  • "Pelosi SHOULD Take Responsibility!" J6 Capitol Police Chief Says Speaker's Staff Blocked Additional Security
    “Pelosi SHOULD Take Responsibility!” J6 Capitol Police Chief Says Speaker’s Staff Blocked Additional Security

    Former Capitol Police Chief Steven Sund responded to a viral video of former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) admitting that she was responsible for the lack of preparedness on Jan. 6, 2021.

    “Pelosi should take responsibility!” Sund posted on X, adding “She put herself in the security decision process and her Sergeant at Arms denied my requests for support before and during the Jan. 6 chaos. She undermined my law enforcement capabilities.”

    Sund, who was in charge of the Capitol Police during Jan. 6, then asked “Why did they change the law (2US1970) that tied my hands?”

    On Monday, the House Oversight Committee posted footage of Pelosi admitting “I take responsibility” for the lack of security on Jan. 6.

    The video shows Pelosi in an exchange with Chief of Staff Terri McCullough on the evacuation. Pelosi states:

    “We have responsibility, Terri. We did not have any accountability for what was going on there. And we should have. This is ridiculous.

    You’re going to ask me in the middle of the thing when they’ve already breached…that, should we call the Capitol Police? I mean the National Guard?

    Why weren’t the National Guard there to begin with?

    …

    They clearly didn’t know, and I take responsibility for not having them just prepared for more.”

    In February of last year, Sund told journalist Tucker Carlson that Jan. 6 was a “setup” – noting that Pelosi’s staff refused to authorize the deployment of the National Guard at the Capitol despite his pleas, and that federal agencies withheld information and warning signs of potential dangers prior to the riot.

    “It doesn’t seem like people really want to get to the bottom of it,” said Sund, adding “It really doesn’t. And it just gets worse. It gets worse from there.”

    Sund got approval to bring in the National Guard at 2:09 p.m. Before his approval, he alleged that he begged several generals, including General Michael Flynn, to bring the National Guard. The officials told Sund they did “not like the optics of the National Guard” as he allegedly begged for their assistance to intervene in the violence. –Daily Caller

    “This sounds like a set up to me,” Carlson said, adding “I’m sorry, it does.”

    To which Sund replied:

    “It gets better. So I beg and beg and he goes ‘well, I’m gonna walk down the hall and we’ll talk to the Secretary of Defense or whoever he’s gonna talk to. Right then I get a notification, oh, I’m still on the call, we have the shooting of Ashli Babbitt. And I said we have shots firing, I still remember yelling over the phone. We have shots firing on the U.S. Capitol, is that urgent enough for you now?“

    According to Sund, the National Guard didn’t show up until 6 p.m., hours after the fatal shooting of Babbitt. He also claimed that the Pentagon deployed resources to the homes of generals, but not the Capitol.

    Watch:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/12/2024 – 12:20

  • Golf And Investing: Mastering Long And Short Games For Success
    Golf And Investing: Mastering Long And Short Games For Success

    Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

    Let’s play a hole of golf to appreciate how two distinct aspects of golf provide valuable lessons for investors.

    You tee off with a driver on a 450-yard par four hole. Your drive is perfect. Not only does the ball land in the middle of the fairway, but you only have 200 yards remaining to the pin. Next, you pull out an iron, hit a beautiful shot, and the ball bounces onto the putting green. With only 40 feet between the ball and the pin and over 95% of the hole behind you, you think a birdie is possible, and in the worst case, you can get a par.

    Your birdie putt misses by 10 feet. You come up just short on the next putt, and your confidence turns to angst. Finally, the third putt rattles into the cup, scoring a disappointing bogey.

    Your long and straight 200-yard drive counts precisely as the 3-foot short putt you missed for par. Similarly, an investment idea backed by a well-thought-out macro thesis is only as good as adequately navigating the many short-term factors that can threaten investment performance.  

    Investing’s Long Game

    The long game involves forming expectations of economic growth and how revenues and earnings for sectors and industries may change with the economy as it cycles through your big-picture thesis. More simply, the long game is investing based on a macroeconomic outlook.

    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Macroeconomic analysis studies the behavior and performance of a country’s economy and its interaction with the global economy. It focuses on broad aggregate variables, including existing economic trends, business cycles, productivity, demographics, geopolitics, governments/central banks, credit, and technological change. 

    An increasingly important part of macroeconomic analysis is assessing how fiscal and monetary policies might affect economic growth and price trends.

    As we have recently witnessed, fiscal spending can have a massive impact on economic activity and inflation. However, as we may find out, it can also be a drag on economic activity in future years. Similarly, a central bank’s monetary policy, including how it manages interest rates and asset holdings, often dictates liquidity and financial conditions, significantly influencing asset markets and the economy.

    International trade and finance, including geopolitics, can play noteworthy roles in macroeconomic analysis. This incorporates trade balances and exchange rates, which are predicated on interest rates and inflation. Other factors include competitiveness, foreign relationships, and foreign investor cash flows.

    While longer-term views on the factors we note are critically important, we must also appreciate shorter periods in which our long-term thesis may seem out of favor. Importantly, we must assess whether aberrations to longer trends are short-term or new trends being established.

    Similar to golf, an excellent long investing game is crucial to understanding the economic path that directly feeds corporate earnings and consumer and government spending behaviors. Think of the long game as a road map, and your goal is to get from point A to point B. Therefore, assessing the most efficient route is your paramount task.

    Investing’s Short Game

    As we now discuss, an investor’s short game is equally important. These are the inevitable traffic jams, accidents, and weather conditions that will force you to stray from the long game.

    Investing’s short game includes market conditions, narratives, personal biases, behavioral traits, liquidity, and other factors that briefly influence asset prices away from longer-term trends.

    Even if you have an outstanding macroeconomic outlook, ignoring the short game, like being a lousy putter in golf, virtually ensures a bogey or worse on your investment performance.  

    Biases and Behaviors

    We have written numerous articles on our inherent biases and behavioral traits. For example, our latest on the topic, Behavioral Traits That Are Killing Your Portfolio Returns, reviews five traits that often hurt investors’ performance. We share a summary below, along with a bit of advice.

    Confirmation Bias: favoring information that affirms your beliefs. Therefore, read investment advice that goes against your views and may be uncomfortable. It will strengthen your convictions or help you appreciate where your thesis may prove wrong.

    Gamblers Fallacy: believing that future outcomes will follow prior outcomes. Today’s hot assets are often laggards tomorrow. While tracking and investing in today’s popular stocks is worthy, keep an open mind that some other stock or asset will likely be tomorrow’s winner.

    Herd Bias: doing what everyone else is doing. The thought process is rooted in the belief that if “everyone else” is doing something, I must do it to be accepted. As we wrote in Behavioral Traits:

    Investors generate the most profits in the long term by moving against the “herd.” Unfortunately, most individuals have difficulty knowing when to “bet” against the stampede.

    Trading with the “herd” can be profitable at times. However, we must understand the inherent flaws in group logic and always appreciate the contrarian opinion.

    The table below provides a few more examples.

    Technical Analysis

    Technical analysis is one of the best clubs in our short-game bag. While it can be inconsistent, as with every other forecasting model, it is the best tool for quantifying investors’ collective behaviors. Historical price and volume data provide a critical context for various price levels likely to motivate buyers and sellers.

    Technical analysis helps detect trend changes. Like reading a putt, technical analysis can help us grasp the risks and rewards a market offers. Furthermore, it can provide price levels with which to buy or sell. In turn, limits allow us to separate our trading actions from our behavioral traits.

    Liquidity Drivers/Fed

    Financial market liquidity is impossible to quantify, even though investors throw the word around like it’s a known commodity. Liquidity refers to the funds available for investors to invest. When liquidity is plentiful, investors tend to take more risk. Conversely, when liquidity is lacking, investors are often risk-averse.

    While liquidity is often considered part and parcel with actual investible dollars available, it’s more a function of investors’ cumulative actions. For instance, the Fed supplied the market with ample liquidity in late 2008, but a meaningful fear of significant bank failures crippled many investors. Sellers were plentiful, and buyers were hard to find. Liquidity was poor. The result was a sharp drawdown in equity prices with high volatility.

    The Fed supplies monetary liquidity to the banking system through interest rate policy and its balance sheet. Furthermore, as their role seemingly becomes more dominant with time, their actions become more impactful to markets. Consequently, as we see today, the stock market rallies as prospects of the Fed providing more liquidity via lower interest rates.

    Domestic and Global Events

    War, weather events, terrorism, political instability, and other local or global events can move markets. Quite often, event-driven trends are short-lived. During event-related volatile periods, investors should try to remain cool and calm. It’s easy to sell into a fear-laced narrative. It’s much harder to buy in such an environment. To quote Warren Buffett:

    Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy only when others are fearful.

     

    Summary

    A well-thought-out long-game thesis can stay intact for long periods with slight adjustments when needed. Like a long and straight drive in golf, when your macroeconomic thesis proves correct, a good portion of your investing job is done.

    But, like golf, letting your irrational behaviors control your investment acumen, not appreciating that markets are sometimes foolish, or misdiagnosing what the Fed is doing can devastate shorter- and longer-term results.

    Do not forget the two-foot putt counts the same as a daunting drive off the tee box.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/12/2024 – 12:00

  • Did The Defense Make Jail More Likely For Hunter Under The Sentencing Guidelines?
    Did The Defense Make Jail More Likely For Hunter Under The Sentencing Guidelines?

    Authored by Jonathan Turley,

    For months, I have been expressing disbelief that Hunter Biden and his defense team were going to take the gun case to trial. Even on the eve of the trial, I thought that the defense might snap into sanity and plead out the case. The reason was simple. A guilty plea would have materially improved the chances that Hunter could get probation and avoid jail by accepting responsibility. Conversely, a trial in a case with overwhelming evidence of guilt would make it less likely that a judge would depart from the guidelines at sentencing. Nevertheless, Hunter went forward with a nullification strategy and, in so doing, it may have nullified his best chance to reduce the risk of jail time.

    After the verdict, I have been stating that jail time is a real possibility in this case despite the fact that this is a first offender. Frankly, I do not see any real need for incarceration in this type of case and many judges would be likely tempted to grant “downward departures” in sentencing or disregard any recommended prison sentence.

    It is also important to note that, after the Supreme Court’s ruling in United States v. Booker, sentencing guidelines are discretionary. Judge Maryellen Noreika could sentence him to probation in light of his struggle with his addiction and his status as a first offender (as well as the absence of other aggravating factors).

    Yet, while many view this as a relatively minor offense, the sentencing guidelines do not.

    Judges regularly sentence people to prison for these offenses. The sentencing guidelines put the recommendation at 15 to 21 months in prison. Moreover, over 90 percent of those convicted are sentenced to prison time.

    The chances of probation are increased with guilty pleas, which generally allow for a downward departure of two levels for taking responsibility. That may not seem like a lot but it could prove determinative for a judge on a marginal call over the need for incarceration. By pursuing the nullification strategy, Hunter lost that benefit and now would have to belated accept responsibility just before sentencing after putting the court and public through a trial.

    If the defense reviewed Judge Noreika’s past cases, they would have seen that she takes a tough approach on gun cases. In May, she sentenced defendant Zhi Dong to a year in jail for lying about his address on a gun form. Notably, that was twice the recommended sentence of the prosecutors.

    One point of distinction is that Dong purchased 19 pistols and 10 “lower receivers” rather than the single gun purchased by Biden. It is also notable that the prosecutors were only seeking six months of incarceration in that arguably more serious case.

    The defense strategy also makes it more difficult for Special Counsel David Weiss, who has shown remarkable lenience at critical stages of his investigation.  It was Weiss who allowed the most serious tax offenses to lapse under a statute of limitations (despite reportedly having an agreement to extend the period). It was Weiss who sought to give Hunter an obscene sweetheart deal that would have avoided any jail time and given him immunity for all crimes.

    Many remain skeptical of Weiss and his actions in this case. For that reason, the failure to plead guilty puts Weiss in a box. Given the sentencing guidelines of prison time, any recommendations for probation would be read as more favoritism for the president’s son. Weiss may feel compelled to follow the recommendations to show that Hunter is being treated the same as other defendants.

    Given the calculation for the three felonies, the defense had to know that they were increasing the chances of prison time by pursuing a nullification defense. The hope was that Wilmington is Bidentown and no local jury would convict the son of the favorite son of Delaware.

    It didn’t work out that way. The team seemed to overplay its hand with defenses that were so implausible as to be insulting for the jury. They suggested that Hunter might not have checked the box or signed the form during in a brief window where he was not using drugs. The prosecutors demolished those defenses within two days of the trial.

    Accepting responsibility after. a trial does not guarantee a downward departure. For example, in U.S. v. Womack, a defendant sought a departure for accepting responsibility before trial as a drug dealer. However, he still went to trial on other issues and the trial judge refused any departure on the basis of his earlier admissions of guilt. It found that he was still minimizing his responsibility for the underlying crimes. That decision was upheld on appeal.

    Now, Hunter may have painted both the prosecutors and the court into a corner. In a play for a hung jury, Hunter may have hoisted himself on his own petard. Guilt was never in doubt, but his efforts also removed any question of accepting responsibility before he was facing actual sentencing for his offenses.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/12/2024 – 11:20

  • Wall Street Reacts To Today's Dovish CPI Shocker: "Down And Out"
    Wall Street Reacts To Today’s Dovish CPI Shocker: “Down And Out”

    As we expected in our preview calling for “optimism for a low print“, today’s CPI delivered the kind of downside surprise that bond bulls and the Fed have been waiting for, as both headline and core came in a tenth lower than expected, largely driven by a 3.6% drop in gasoline prices – the biggest reason why the headline CPI was flat on the month – and as Bloomberg adds, “the miss looks legit, given the shortfall in the actual indices relative to forecast.” Indeed, at 0.16% the rise in core nearly rose just 0.1% when rounded. Meanwhile, in what may have been the biggest surprise, supercore services ex housing fell by 0.04%, the first negative reading since September 2021!

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The soft CPI print obvious puts two rate cuts in 2024 as the obvious center of policy distribution – with an outside chance for the Fed to keep its 3 cut baseline in today’s dots – and opens the door for the market to price more in 2025.

    Meanwhile, the big delta remains housing: as the BLS noted, the shelter index increased 5.4% over the last year, accounting for over two thirds of the total 12-month increase in the all items less food and energy index. Yet with lagged OER/shelter/rent still hot relative to real-time prices, the core monthly CPI gain undershot the median forecast for the first time since October.

    And here is the punchline: with real-time rent flat to down for the past year, the BLS-tracked OER 5-months lagged, is up 5.6%, and will decline gradually for the next 18 months as it catches down to real-time rents, even as the latter are actively rising, something which Omair Sharif at Inflation Insights agrees with in his morning note titled “Down and Out” : “A 0.2% monthly core CPI reading should be the base case for the balance of the year, especially as it looks more and more like the long-awaited slowdown in shelter costs will hit as soon as the next report.”

    In any case, however one looks at today’s report, the bottom line is clear: the doves have it, and now the ball is in the Fed’s court to decide whether to keep the dots at 3 cuts for 2024 or move to 2, even as the hawkish “1 cut” case has been officially eliminated. Indeed, here is Bloomberg’s Fed Watcher Chris Antsey on this issue: “for any Fed governor or district bank president who had been on the fence about one rate cut or two for 2024, this might have tipped them over. All eyes at 2 p.m. in Washington will be on that median estimate for the year-end policy rate.”

    And to underscore that, here are some of the more notable Wall Street reactions.

    Gregory Faranello, head of rates strategy at AmeriVet Securities:

    “The CPI is a really nice inflation reading. The Fed meeting today should see officials move toward two rate cuts for 2024 and softer CPI readings from here will keep a September cut in play.”

    Omair Sharif at Inflation Insights:

    “A 0.2% monthly core CPI reading should be the base case for the balance of the year, especially as it looks more and more like the long-awaited slowdown in shelter costs will hit as soon as the next report.”

    Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intel chief rates strategist:

    “The knee-jerk reaction in the Treasury market isn’t surprising given the Fed-friendly CPI print, particularly the “low” 0.2% on core CPI. Jay Powell can now say ‘we’re making slow but additional progress on inflation’ at this afternoon’s press conference. Investors have been asking if members of the FOMC might change their summary of economic projection forecasts after the CPI print, since they are submitted prior to the start of the meeting. Today’s report probably doesn’t really shift expectations much. We’ve been thinking November and December cuts as our base base, and this data solidifies that view.”

    Lindsay Rosner of Goldman Sachs Asset Management

    “This was good news but it is one piece of news. June is a no-go. We have felt July the same. Again today is a good print for restrictive rates working to quell inflation, so September is a possibility.”

    Bryce Doty, Sit Investment Associates senior PM:

    “A calm CPI report. This CPI report gives the Fed the flexibility to still cut rates. We still expect the Fed to hold off until after the election though.”

    Ashwin Alankar, head of asset allocation at Janus Henderson Investors:

    “Until greater dis-inflation evidence is seen both in breadth and depth, today’s softness is supportive of a preemptive cut rather than a pivot in Fed policy towards accommodation.”

    Ana Galvao, Bloomberg Economics:

    “The downside surprise in CPI could have an impact on asset prices over the medium term, not just today. Bloomberg Economics’ Macro-Finance model suggests forecasts for two-year Treasury yields will fall by 15 bps through 1Q25.”

    Olu Sonola, head of US econ at Fitch

    “This was unequivocally a good report, a delightful appetizer while we await the main course later on today. The core services print of 0.2% was the lowest since September 2021 and that will definitely boost confidence if that trend continues over the next couple of months. While the door to an interest rate cut in July is effectively shut, the window still looks open for later on this year.”

    Finally, here is a good wrapper from Bloomberg’s econ team:

    “May’s soft core CPI reading should reassure the Fed that inflation is slowing. Disinflation was broad across both goods and services categories.

    “We expect core CPI prints over the summer to proceed at a mostly similar pace. With three more moderate prints in hand by the time of the September FOMC meeting, we think Fed officials will be convinced to start cutting rates then.”

    Source: Bloomberg

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/12/2024 – 11:03

  • Suicide Drone Boat Hits Bulk Carrier Near Yemen
    Suicide Drone Boat Hits Bulk Carrier Near Yemen

    Yemen’s Houthi movement might have expanded its weapon arsenal by attacking a bulk carrier in the Red Sea with a suicide drone boat (the first time in this conflict). This marks a shift from the terror group’s usual anti-ship ballistic missiles and or kamikaze aerial drones. 

    On X, the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said, “The vessel was hit on the stern by a small craft” about 66 nautical miles southwest of Al Hudaydah, Yemen. 

    Bloomberg said the commodity-hauling bulk carrier is called “Tutor.” Ship tracking data shows the vessel switched off its Automatic Identification System late last week after entering the Suez Canal. 

    Maritime security company Diaplous said a suicide drone boat hit Tutor, adding the vessel’s engine compartment was taking on water. 

    There is no confirmation if Houthi rebels carried out the attack. However, the terror group has been on a half-year rampage across major shipping lanes in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, attacking Western-linked vessels with missiles and drones. 

    According to an International Maritime Organization document obtained by the Middle East Eye, Houthi rebels have attacked 28 bulk carriers, tankers, container ships, cargo ships, and crude oil tankers.

    Nine of the vessels were Marshall Island-flagged and three were US-flagged. Others were from Malta, Barbados, Panama, Belize, Greece, Palau, Liberia, Singapore, and Portugal.

    On Monday, new images published on social media showed missile attack damage to the previously owned US bulk carrier “True Confidence” from March 6.

    Source: The Sea In Arabic

    These attacks have snarled global supply chains and sent containerized shipping costs soaring in recent months. 

    Next up is US CENTCOM responding to the incident. They usually do not comment on the specific weapons used and often say “projectile.” This report of the attack should be out this evening or tomorrow morning. 

    Furthermore, this won’t be the last time Houthi rebels use suicide boats against commercial vessels linked to the West in the Red Sea and or the Gulf of Aden. The group has also warned about expanding its threat coverage into the Mediterranian Sea. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/12/2024 – 11:00

  • Biden's Problems Are The Real Threats
    Biden’s Problems Are The Real Threats

    Authored by Newt Gingrich via RealClearPolicy,

    Democratic analysts don’t seem to understand why the all-out legal assault on President Donald Trump isn’t working. It’s because they keep talking among themselves and not with the American people.

    The American people don’t live and work in the New York-Washington political-media-government bubble. If reporters and analysts listened to Americans, as we do at America’s New Majority Project, they would learn how decisive the choice between President Joe Biden or President Trump is. They would also see how difficult, if not impossible, it will be for President Biden to get easily re-elected.

    The propaganda media is trying to focus the election on what it sees as President Trump’s flaws. The Democrats, including the Biden campaign, are trying to focus the election on what they see as the threat President Trump represents.

    But the 2024 election is ultimately going to come down to a simple question: Can the American people afford four more years of Biden’s policies and principles?

    President Trump’s problems all involve his own alleged behavior and activities. Even the totally phony legal attacks remain locked into a Trump-centered issue. No American is hurt by the things President Trump has supposedly done. Indeed, few Americans pay any attention to the outlandish, manipulated legal attacks on President Trump.

    Most Americans see the case against Trump as political lawfare. If anything, they are offended by the left’s assault on the rule of law and the Constitution. This is why the conviction in the so-called hush money trial led to an enormous surge of contributions to Trump’s campaign. Far from running away from President Trump, the American people found themselves running to defend him. They saw him as a champion being persecuted unfairly and took the conviction as a direct warning of what could happen to them.

    By contrast, President Biden’s problems all impact everyday Americans. Bidenflation continues to drive already high prices higher. Child care costs increased 4.1 percent in the last year. Young parents are having to take on third and fourth jobs just to break even on costs. Grocery prices are forcing Americans to make tough decisions about how to feed their families. Young people can’t afford to buy houses – which is more than offsetting any good will Biden might have generated by (illegally) waiving student loan repayments.

    President Biden’s policies are causing millions of Americans real pain.

    Biden’s open border policy allows Venezuelan criminals to go to New York City and murder policemen. Biden’s open border policy allows fentanyl and other drugs to flood our country and poison our communities. When more than 100,000 Americans a year are dying from drug overdoses, it is hard worry about how Trump valued his apartment or paid his attorney.

    The average American can’t afford groceries, gasoline, or the electricity bill thanks to Bidenflation. Democrats want Americans to focus on these legal attacks. But Americans are focused on their own survival in the terrible economy President Biden and Democrats created.

    For the elite establishment Democrats, this is all still about politics. For the American people, it’s about survival.

    Economically, Biden’s destructive policies make life more expensive. Culturally, people are sick of radical dictates which denigrate religious liberty and seek to indoctrinate children against the will of their parents. Finally, as a matter of safety, Americans realize that Biden does not have the knowledge, ability, or wits to defend our nation against our adversaries.

    The 2024 election isn’t about what the establishment media thinks. It’s about America’s survival.

    For more commentary from Newt Gingrich, visit Gingrich360.com. Also, subscribe to the Newt’s World podcast.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/12/2024 – 10:45

  • WTI Falls After Unexpected Crude & Gasoline Inventory Builds; Biggest Imports In 6 Years
    WTI Falls After Unexpected Crude & Gasoline Inventory Builds; Biggest Imports In 6 Years

    Oil prices extended gains this morning following the cooler than expected CPI (supporting rate cuts and potential demand) following API’s reported crude draw overnight.

    “This week’s big recovery has weakened the bears’ hold on the market, although more price action is needed to confirm a bottom,” said Fawad Razaqzada, a market analyst at City Index and Forex.com.

    “But it is possible we could see crude oil prices come under pressure again after the recent recovery. The lower highs suggest the short-term path of least resistance is still downward, until told otherwise by the charts.”

    Expectations were for a modest draw in crude from the official data.

    API

    • Crude -2.4mm

    • Cushing -1.94mm

    • Gasoline -2.55mm

    • Distillates +972k

    DOE

    • Crude +3.73mm

    • Cushing -1.59mm

    • Gasoline +2.57mm

    • Distillates +881k

    The official data flipped the API data and showed a sizable crude inventory build last week (and gasoline build)…

    Source: Bloomberg

    The Biden admin added 339k barrels to the SPR (the lowest addition since early Dec 2023)

    Source: Bloomberg

    US crude production rose by 100k b/d back near record highs, even as the rig count continues to slide…

    Source: Bloomberg

    It looks like they flooded the market with imports – the largest in six years…

    Source: Bloomberg

    WTI tumbled on the surprise builds…

    Along with OPEC+ plans to phase out voluntary output cuts after September, “we think this signals a cautious optimism from the organization when it comes to the trajectory of future supply/demand,” says Rohan Reddy, director of research at Global X in emailed comments.

    “The mid-$70s to low-$90s crude pricing we’ve seen in Brent over the past few quarters seems to be a range that OPEC is comfortable with, as the organization maintains its holding pattern,” he adds.

    Meanwhile, pump prices have fallen to three month lows as crude and gasoline prices have fallen…

    But it’s not helping Biden’s poll numbers…

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/12/2024 – 10:39

  • 8 Suspected Illegal Alien Terrorists Arrested In New York, Philadelphia & LA 
    8 Suspected Illegal Alien Terrorists Arrested In New York, Philadelphia & LA 

    For nearly a quarter-century, Americans have been subjected to mass surveillance via the Patriot Act. Yet, while the government violates the privacy rights of Americans with warrantless surveillance, the safety of the country is being undermined by top left-wing officials flooding the open southern border with millions of illegal aliens, some of which are known terrorists and or terrorist-linked. 

    Fencing along the U.S. border with Mexico in San Ysidro, Calif.Credit…Mark Abramson for The New York Times

    Disastrous open southern border policies pushed by the Biden administration make absolutely no sense in a world that is dangerously fracturing into a multi-polar state of war and conflict. America’s enemies can walk right in, and that’s exactly what’s happening. 

    NBC News reported Tuesday that eight men from Tajikistan with potential ISIS connections out of central Asia were arrested in New York, Philadelphia, and Los Angeles. 

    The FBI’s Joint Terrorism Task Force and US Immigration and Customs Enforcement were tracking the suspects for months after they crossed Biden’s open southern border in the spring of 2023.

    While they have not been charged with a terrorist connection or plot yet, the FBI alerted ICE they should be arrested because of potential ties to ISIS, and they were arrested on immigration charges, two sources say. They are detained and face removal proceedings before an immigration judge, and they could later face terrorism-related charges, two sources say. -NBC 

    One X user made this point, “Why do Americans still have to abide by the patriot act while migrants are free to roam? This is a failed president Biden.” 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    When one tries to rationalize the White House’s decision to allow tens of millions (est.) of illegal aliens into the country, the outcome here is a manufactured crisis that has left the country vulnerable to attack.

    In April, FBI Director Christopher Wray warned lawmakers that there is fear of a “coordinated attack” in major US cities. This warning came weeks after ISIS attacked a concert hall in Moscow, killing 145 people. 

    “Our most immediate concern has been that individuals or small groups will draw twisted inspiration from the events in the Middle East to carry out attacks here at home.

    “But now, increasingly concerning is the potential for a coordinated attack here in the homeland, akin to the ISIS-K attack we saw at the Russia concert hall a couple weeks ago,” Wray told a House Appropriations subcommittee earlier this year.

    Meanwhile, an Iranian intelligence officer is still on the loose, planning to kill Trump-era officials. 

    And in February, we penned this note, “More Red Flags Than Before 9-11”: Ohio Sheriff Warns American People Of Worsening Border Invasion.

    So again, our rights were violated over these past two decades, all in the name of freedom, and now the government has flooded the nation with migrants, some of which are terrorist or terrorist-linked. And of course, if there is another attack, it will only be met with more mass surveillance by the intel community.

    It’s becoming much more apparent what the agenda is at play here. Expand the nanny state one manufactured crisis at a time.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/12/2024 – 10:25

  • Appeals Court Upholds Ban On Student Wearing 'Only Two Genders' Shirt
    Appeals Court Upholds Ban On Student Wearing ‘Only Two Genders’ Shirt

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A U.S. appeals court on June 9 upheld a ban preventing a Massachusetts middle school student from wearing a shirt reading “There are only two genders.”

    Another prohibition by school administrators, this time blocking the same student from wearing the shirt with “only two” covered by tape, on which was written “censored,” is also allowed under court precedent, according to the ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the First Circuit.

    “The question here is not whether the t-shirts should have been barred. The question is who should decide whether to bar them—educators or federal judges. Based on Tinker, the cases applying it, and the specific record here, we cannot say that in this instance the Constitution assigns the sensitive (and potentially consequential) judgment about what would make ‘an environment conducive to learning’ at NMS to us rather than to the educators closest to the scene,” U.S. Circuit Judge David Barron wrote for a unanimous panel of the court.

    In Tinker v. Des Moines Independent Community School District, the U.S. Supreme Court in 1969 ruled that a ban on students wearing armbands in protest against the Vietnam War violated the students’ First Amendment rights.

    U.S. District Judge Indira Talwani cited the ruling when in 2023 she ruled in favor of the administrators at the John T. Nichols Middle School (NMS) and Middleborough School District in Massachusetts against Liam Morrison (L.M.), the boy who wore the “two genders” shirt to school.

    “[The school] permissibly concluded that the shirt invades the rights of others,” Judge Talwani said before quoting Tinker. “Schools can prohibit speech that is in ‘collision with the rights of others to be secure and be let alone.’”

    The NMS dress code states in part that students must not wear pieces of clothing that “state, imply, or depict hate speech or imagery that [targets] groups based on race, ethnicity, gender, sexual orientation, gender identity, religious affiliation, or any other classification.”

    Liam was removed from class after a teacher raised concerns about his shirt. He was ultimately sent home after he declined to remove the shirt, and his father said he would not force the removal.

    When Liam went to school on another day with the shirt partially covered in tape, administrators told him to take it off, and he did.

    Lawyers for Liam argued that the shirts did not impinge on the rights of other students. The shirts “like the Tinker children’s armbands, constitute ‘a silent, passive expression of opinion,’” they wrote in a brief to the appeals court.

    “The school banned L.M.’s t-shirts based on a few subjective complaints that students felt upset, unsafe, or targeted,” they said. “But Tinker bars schools from censuring expression based on the ‘discomfort’ or ‘fear’ that results from exposure to ‘unpopular [viewpoints].’”

    In a related ruling from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit, the court ruled that a school district could not bar speech about “contentious issues” such as “racial customs,” “religious tradition,” or “sexual orientation” without a “particularized reason as to why it anticipates substantial disruption.”

    The First Circuit panel stated on June 10 that even if the shirts did not invade the rights of others, administrators reasonably forecast that they would disrupt learning.

    Administrators said the message on the shirt would “materially disrupt transgender and gender non-conforming students’ ability to focus on learning while in a classroom where the message is being displayed.” The court agreed, because of “the demeaning nature of the message” and how administrators attested to knowing of some students who identify as transgender struggling with suicidal thoughts.

    “In such circumstances, we think it was reasonable for Middleborough to forecast that a message displayed throughout the school day denying the existence of the gender identities of transgender and gender non-conforming students would have a serious negative impact on those students’ ability to concentrate on their classroom work,” wrote Judge Barron, who was joined by U.S. Circuit Judges O. Rogeriee Thompson and Lara Montecalvo.

    Judges Barron, Thompson, and Talwani were appointed by President Barack Obama. Judge Montecalvo was appointed by President Joe Biden.

    David Cortman, vice president of U.S. litigation for the Alliance Defending Freedom, which is representing Liam, told The Epoch Times in an email that “our legal system is built on the truth that the government cannot silence any speaker just because it disapproves of what they say.”

    He said the First Circuit erred in its decision and that the group was reviewing all legal options, including an appeal.

    A lawyer for the school and school district did not return an inquiry.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/12/2024 – 09:35

  • Consumer Prices Hold At Record Highs – Up 20% Since Biden Elected
    Consumer Prices Hold At Record Highs – Up 20% Since Biden Elected

    The headline consumer price index was unchanged MoM in May – the smallest change since July 2022 – just less than the +0.1% MoM expected. On a YoY basis, headline CPI rose 3.3% (less than the 3.4% exp) – but very much stuck in a range well above the 2% target for over year now…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Energy was the biggest drag on the headline CPI MoM…(Gasoline prices tumbled 3.6% in May from April, one key reason why the headline CPI was flat on the month. )

    Source: Bloomberg

    Core CPI rose 0.2% MoM (below the 0.3% exp) pulling the YoY change down to 3.4% (from 3.6% and below the 3.5% exp). That is the lowest Core CPI YoY since April 2021…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Core CPI has not had a down-month since President Biden was elected.

    Core Services inflation slowed notably MoM…

    Source: Bloomberg

    The shelter index increased 0.4 percent in May and was the largest factor in the monthly increase in the index for all items less food and energy.

    • May Shelter inflation 5.41% YoY, down from 5.55% in April and lowest since April 2022

    • May Rent inflation 5.30% YoY, down from 5.44% and lowest since May 2022

    For context on how important housing costs are to US inflation data, the shelter index rose 5.4% over the last year, making up over two thirds of the total 12-month increase in the all items less food and energy index.

    Source: Bloomberg

    It does make one wonder were exactly the BLS is getting their BS OER data from…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The full breakdown…

    Services INflation remains awkwardly stuck above 5% while Goods DEflation is at its weakest since January 2004…

    Source: Bloomberg

    SuperCore CPI fell 0.05% MoM – its first drop since Sept 2021, but that left the YoY level still above 5.0%…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Transportation Services costs tumbled MoM to drag SuperCore lower MoM…

    Source: Bloomberg

    We note that consumer prices have not fallen in a single month since President Biden’s term began (July 2022 and May 2024 was the closest with ‘unchanged’), which leaves overall prices up over 19.5% since Bidenomics was unleashed (compares with +8% during Trump’s term).

    And prices have never been more expensive…

    That is an average of 5.4% per annum (almost triple the 1.9% average per annum rise in price during President Trump’s term).

    Source: Bloomberg

    Since President Biden was elected, food prices at home are up around 21% and food prices away from home are up almost 23%…

    And while the Biden administration will continue to gaslight voters with comments like “inflation is tumbling”… every man, woman, and child who actually buys food knows prices have NEVER been higher…

    Finally, while the ‘flations’ have broadly tracked M2 lower, we note that M2 YoY is now starting to turn back higher once again…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Will the next President and Fed head face a 70s redux?

    Source: Bloomberg

    And is this guaranteed if Powell decides “insurance” cuts are required (for Biden?)

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/12/2024 – 09:28

  • Biden Approves Sending 2nd Patriot System To Ukraine Ahead Of G7
    Biden Approves Sending 2nd Patriot System To Ukraine Ahead Of G7

    “We’re going to continue to drive up costs for the Russian war machine,” White House spokesman John Kirby has said as President Biden departs for meetings with Group of Seven leaders in Italy.

    The Thursday through Saturday meeting will focus in large part on unveiling new sanctions and export controls against Moscow, particularly the expected widening of sanctions on the sale of semiconductor chips for Russia, but also targeting third parties in China that deal with Russia.

    Additionally the US will press allies on a plan to use frozen Russian assets to generate profits for Ukraine’s defense. “We will announce new steps to unlock the value of the immobilized Russian sovereign assets to benefit Ukraine and to help them recover from the destruction that Mr. Putin’s army has caused,” Kirby previewed additionally Tuesday.

    The proposal involves utilizing future interest on nearly $300 billion of frozen Russian central bank funds to back a $50 billion loan to Ukraine, which can be used for arms, defense, infrastructure, and rebuilding.

    During the summit of the world’s wealthiest democracies (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US, and with the EU a “non-enumerated member”), Biden will also meet with Ukraine’s Zelensky, where more US weapons for Kiev will be unveiled, especially the deployment of another Patriot missile system for Ukraine.

    The NY Times details that “The new Patriot system — the second that the United States has sent to Ukraine — will come from Poland, where it has been protecting a rotational force of American troops who will be returning to the United States, officials said.”

    “The system could be deployed to Ukraine’s front lines in the next several days, U.S. officials said, depending on any maintenance or modifications it needs,” the report adds.

    Biden is also expected to seek to assure Zelensky that Washington is staying firmly behind his government for the long haul. However, as the Times also points out, significant political change is looming over Europe amid a general war-weariness and perhaps greater willingness to pursue peaceful settlement with Russia: 

    Now, Europe is bracing for the possibility that former President Donald J. Trump, who has spoken openly of pulling out of NATO, could be back in power by the time the group next meets, in 2025. And several of the leaders present — including Prime Minister Rishi Sunak of Britain and President Emmanuel Macron of France — are facing elections that could redefine Europe.

    Interestingly, the Pentagon has remained reluctant to provide more Patriot batteries, especially ones that would have to be moved from defending US soil, or else batteries currently in vital hotspots.

    “With tensions rising on the Korean Peninsula, moving any Patriot batteries from defending against a possible North Korean attack was also deemed too risky, officials said,” NYT notes. The Israel-Gaza conflict is also a major concern.

    “Pentagon officials did not want to move any batteries from the United States,” the report emphasizes. “There is a Patriot battery at Fort Sill, Okla., for training American and Ukrainian troops, but moving it would take away training, officials said. Other batteries protecting bases and troops in the United States, including in Hawaii, were either deemed too far away or necessary for homeland defense.”

    This shows a greater pragmatism that is apparently on the rise among America’s generals and the defense establishment. Perhaps it’s also the result of the realization that Ukraine cannot ‘win’ under the current circumstances of the ongoing manpower and ammo crisis.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/12/2024 – 09:15

  • Our Apocalyptic 'New Normal': Most Global Conflict Since WWII, Most Billion-Dollar Disasters Ever, & Most Hungry People In History
    Our Apocalyptic ‘New Normal’: Most Global Conflict Since WWII, Most Billion-Dollar Disasters Ever, & Most Hungry People In History

    Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

    Our world is witnessing apocalyptic events so frequently that many of us are starting to become numb to it all.  Major wars are raging all over the globe, children in Africa are literally dropping dead from starvation as hunger spreads like wildfire, and “billion dollar disasters” are hitting us more frequently than we have ever seen before.  But as long as these tragedies are not affecting us directly, most people don’t really care too much.  As the level of worldwide suffering rises, it seems as though hearts are getting colder at the same time. 

    The traumatic events of the past several years have left deep scars, and there are many that prefer to ignore the apocalyptic things that are happening in the world because it is just too much for them to handle emotionally.

    According to a brand new study, the number of armed conflicts in 2023 was the most that we have seen in a single year since the end of World War II…

    More armed conflicts took place worldwide in 2023 than any other year since the end of the Second World War, according to a Norwegian study published Monday.

    Last year saw 59 conflicts of which 28 were in Africa, the the Peace Research Institute of Oslo (PRIO) showed.

    We really are living in a time of “wars and rumors of wars”.

    But since it isn’t our sons and daughters that are being gunned down on the killing fields of eastern Ukraine, most of us in the western world aren’t really moved by all of the bloodshed.

    Every single day, more young lives are being wasted.

    But if you think that things are bad now, just wait until Israel and Hezbollah start lobbing thousands of missiles back and forth, China invades Taiwan, and the Russians and NATO begin directly pummeling one another.

    Meanwhile, global hunger just continues to grow.

    In fact, it is being reported that the number of people facing acute food insecurity last year was the highest ever recorded…

    The number of people threatened by hunger in the world has never been so high. In 2023, 281 million people in 59 countries were facing acute food insecurity, according to the 2024 Global Report on Food Crises, published on Wednesday, April 24, by several international organizations (including UN agencies, the European Union, the US Agency for International Development). This figure is up on 2022 (257 million) in its fifth year running.

    “This Global Report on Food Crises is a roll call of human failings,” warned UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, prefacing the analysis.

    A decade ago, world leaders dreamed of a day when hunger would be eradicated.

    Today, that dream is completely dead.

    Right now, hunger is exploding in areas all over the continent of Africa.

    In Sudan, people are literally eating dirt and leaves just so that they can fill their stomachs with something…

    Time is running out to prevent starvation in Sudan, warns the World Food Program.

    Twenty-five million people in Sudan need humanitarian assistance, 18 million are facing acute food insecurity and 5 million people are at emergency levels approaching famine as the country’s civil war passes the one-year mark.

    Amid so many other crises, the world’s largest hunger crisis is drawing little global attention. In the Al Lait refugee camp, for example, people are eating dirt and boiling leaves, just to have something in their bellies, reports Reuters. Others are eating grass and peanut shells, according to the World Food Program.

    Since it isn’t happening to us, most of us don’t really care.

    But hunger is growing here too.

    According to one recent survey, over one-fourth of the entire U.S. population is now skipping meals due to crazy high food prices…

    More than a quarter of Americans have resorted to skipping meals to avoid paying inflated grocery store prices, according to a new survey.

    According to a study by Qualtrics on behalf of Intuit Credit Karma, 80% of Americans say they have felt a “notable increase” in grocery costs in recent years. More than a quarter of respondents said the increased cost has led them to occasionally skip meals, while about one-third said they spend more than 60% of their monthly income on mandatory expenses such as food, utilities and rent.

    “Food insecurity is a major issue in this country as millions of Americans don’t have enough food to eat or don’t have access to healthy food,” Courtney Alev, a consumer financial advocate at Credit Karma, said in a statement.

    I keep warning my readers that this is just the beginning, and I hope that they are taking me seriously.

    We are also living at a time when major natural disasters are becoming more frequent.

    Last year, our world was hit by more “billion dollar disasters” than ever before…

    The planet was besieged by a record 63 billion-dollar weather disasters in 2023, surpassing the previous record of 57 set in 2020, said insurance broker Gallagher Re in its annual report issued January 17.

    Unfortunately, we may top that number this year.

    So far in 2024, there have already been 11 “billion dollar disasters” in the United States alone…

    A deadly outbreak of tornadoes last month caused $4.7 billion in damages across the Southern, Southeastern and Central U.S., making it one of the costliest weather events of the year so far, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said on Monday.

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said there had been 11 confirmed weather and climate disaster events so far this year with losses exceeding $1 billion, with the total price tag topping $25 billion. There were more than 165 tornadoes during the May 6-9 outbreak, impacting Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia and Florida, officials said.

    We have already experienced so many historic disasters, and hurricane season and the heart of wildfire season are still ahead of us.

    Almost every day, we are seeing things happen that we have never seen before.

    For example, storm chasers in the middle of the country just recovered a piece of hail that was “about the size of a pineapple”…

    Val and Amy Castor, veteran storm chasers with Oklahoma City television station KWTV, discovered a piece of hail more than 7 inches (17.78 centimeters) long Sunday along the side of the road near Vigo Park while they were chasing a major thunderstorm system.

    Val Castor said the stone was about the size of a pineapple.

    “That’s the biggest hail I’ve ever seen, and I’ve been chasing storms for more than 30 years,” Castor said.

    We aren’t supposed to have hail of that size.

    But this is the “new normal” where the old rules simply don’t apply.

    In California, there has been an alarming series of earthquakes during the past couple of weeks…

    First, a magnitude 3.6 earthquake in the Ojai Valley sent weak shaking from Santa Barbara to Los Angeles on May 31. Then came two small quakes under the eastern L.A. neighborhood of El Sereno, the most powerful a 3.4. Finally, a trio of tremors hit the Costa Mesa-Newport Beach border, topping out at a magnitude 3.6 Thursday.

    Having half a dozen earthquakes with a magnitude over 2.5 in a week, hitting three distinct parts of Southern California, all in highly populated areas, is not a common occurrence.

    The “Big One” is coming eventually, but I don’t think it is coming quite yet.

    Hopefully I am not wrong about that.

    Other nations are getting pounded by natural disaster after natural disaster as well.

    Brazil has been getting hit particularly hard.  Nightmarish flooding was making headlines down there for a while, but now wildfires are taking center stage…

    After historic floods recently claimed 172 lives in coastal Brazil, the country now faces a new crisis as fires rage through the Pantanal wetlands. These fires have surged nearly tenfold compared to the same period last year, setting the stage for a potential catastrophe worse than the devastating fires of 2020. With severe to extreme drought conditions expected, the situation is becoming increasingly dire.

    Data from the Brazilian space research agency, National Institute for Space Research (INPE) reveals a staggering 980% jump in fires across the Pantanal wetlands this year through June 5, compared to the same timeframe in 2023.

    Speaking of Brazil, it is in the midst of the worst pandemic of dengue fever that has ever been recorded in that nation…

    Brazil recorded the highest number of dengue cases globally in 2024 according to new data from the World Health Organization (WHO). There are nearly 6.3 million probable, and 3 million confirmed cases in the country.

    The South American country counts 82% of the 7.6 million probable cases of dengue recorded in the entire world by the WHO this year. Sadly, it also accounts for 77% of the 3,680 deaths globally from the virus and 82% of the 16,242 cases of severe dengue reported.

    Thus far, 2024 has seen the most serious dengue outbreak ever recorded in Brazil. According to the Ministry of Health, by the end of May, the number of probable cases was 328% higher than that recorded in the same period last year, which had already seen a record number of dengue diagnoses.

    So many pestilences are causing major problems all over the globe right now.

    In the Democratic Republic of Congo, the number of Mpox cases has surged to an all-time record high, and it is the form of the disease that has a particularly high death rate…

    The ongoing outbreak of clade I mpox in the DRC has already claimed many victims: The DRC reports “multiple provincial outbreaks” occurring between the beginning of 2023 and April 14, 2024, with an estimated total of 19,919 cases and 975 deaths — meaning that about 1 in every 20 patients have died.

    This outbreak is also perhaps the most widespread: “During 2023 and 2024, clade I mpox cases were reported from 25 of 26 provinces and, for the first time, from the capital city of Kinshasa,” the CDC team noted.

    Children are especially vulnerable: According to the report, “two thirds (67%) of suspected cases and more than three quarters (78%) of suspected deaths have occurred in persons aged 15 years [or younger].”

    If you ever catch this form of Mpox, you will remember it for the rest of your life even if you survive, because it will be the worst pain that you have ever experienced.

    On top of everything else, it is being reported that scientists have discovered “giant viruses” in the enormous sheets of ice that cover Greenland…

    The idea of a giant virus lurking on a vast ice sheet might sound like the plot to the latest science fiction blockbuster.

    But it’s become a reality, after researchers discovered giant viruses while exploring the Greenland ice sheet.

    Hopefully none of those “giant viruses” poses a major threat to humanity.

    But without a doubt, there will be more global pandemics in our future.

    In fact, all of the trends that I have discussed in this article are going to continue to intensify.

    Our apocalyptic “new normal” is here.

    We live in a world that is going completely and utterly mad, and you can try to ignore that if you wish, but it is the truth.

    *  *  *

    Michael’s new book entitled “Chaos” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/12/2024 – 08:55

  • Futures Set For New Record High Ahead Of CPI, Fed Double Header
    Futures Set For New Record High Ahead Of CPI, Fed Double Header

    Futures are up modestly after another record close on Wall Street heading into today’s double whammy of CPI, and FOMC Dot Plot update, with Nasdaq leading and small-caps lagging. As of 8:00am, S&P futures are up 0.1% to 5,390 and set to extend the stretch of record highs as traders position for the potential disruption from US inflation data landing just hours ahead of Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday; Nasdaq futures rose 0.2%. Bond yields are flat to down 1bp after a stellar 10Y auction yesterday; the Bloomberg Dollar index rose again after four days of gains. Commodities are higher, led by Energy, despite with metals lagging. Today’s focus will be on the doubleheader of CPI and the Fed (our previews can be found here and here).

    In premarket trading, Mag7 and semis names are mostly positive thanks to Oracle shares surging 8.7% to a new record high after the infrastructure software company announced a cloud infrastructure partnership with Google Cloud, as well as one with Microsoft and OpenAI. Oracle also reported fourth-quarter results that featured better-than-expected Cloud Infrastructure revenue, even as it missed on total revenue and earnings. PetMed shares drop 11% after the online pet pharmacy reported results.

    Investors are preparing for a rare double-whammy of US CPI data and Fed announcements that have the potential to upend markets.

    “Today is a big day in terms of economic data and Fed announcement,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, an analyst at Swissquote Bank. “It could determine the global market mood for the rest of the month, and a good part of summer.”

    While policymakers are widely expected to hold borrowing costs at a two-decade high, there’s less certainty on officials’ quarterly rate projections, also known as the dot plot, where most expect the Fed to revise its dot plot from three rate cuts for the balance of 2024 to two, but a hawkish surprise of just one rate cut can not be excluded (see preview here). In any case, Fed voters already have the CPI print for May and it will feature prominently in their deliberations.

    “If it’s two, I think the market reaction can be quite positive and would support new highs in the S&P 500,” Grace Peters, head of investment strategy for Europe, Middle East and Africa at JPMorgan Private Bank, said on Bloomberg TV.

    Ahead of the Fed, the May consumer price index reading is due at 8:30 a.m. and is supposed to show another modest slowdown in inflation, with Goldman’s trading desk saying that it is optimistic for a low print.  Here is JPM’s core CPI MoM market reaction matrix (more details here).

    • Above 0.4%. The first tail-risk scenario, this outcome is likely achieved by an increase in both Core Goods and Core Services, with Core Goods flipping from deflationary to inflationary MoM. Within Core Services, we would likely see shelter inflation increase. The bond market reaction would likely be a 12-15bps increase as part of a bear flattening. Equities would react negatively to this repricing. Given the acceleration higher in inflation, rate cut bets for 2024 would evaporate and we will see the return of views of a rate hike. This would be exacerbated by any comments from Powell suggesting rates are not restrictive enough.  Probability 5%, SPX falls 1.5% to 2.5%.
    • Between 0.35% – 0.40%. This outcome is likely achieved by a smaller than expected disinflationary impulse from Core Goods with Shelter remaining flat. Bonds react negatively as Sept/Nov rate cut views decrease. With market fixings pricing in ~0.26% for Core MoM, the bond market reaction could be larger than expected with many Equity investors focused on the surveyed number of 0.3%. Probability 15%, SPX falls 1% to 1.25%.
    • Between 0.30% – 0.35%. This scenario has the widest range of outcomes since the low end of the range supports the disinflationary trend and the higher end of the range the stickier inflation argument. Feroli’s forecast for 0.33% would keep the YoY number flat from last month’s print. The biggest drivers are weak disinflation in shelter, increases in vehicle, medical, and communication prices. Given the move in bond yields on Friday (+14.6bps to 4.43%), there is likely a more muted response to a hotter print. Also referencing Friday, it was surprising to see stocks slough off the bond market move with the SPX falling only 11bps instead of 1%+ as we have seen over the last couple years in response to significant and sudden moves in bond yields. Probability 40%, SPX loses 0.75% to  gains 0.75%.
    • Between 0.25% – 0.30%. As mentioned, the market fixing implies a 0.26% core reading and the move in yields may not be as strong as one would expect on a beat where one would expect ~15bps move in the 10Y yield but this is a positive outcome for risk assets as this print would likely restart the Goldilocks narrative with 24Q1 data being viewed as an anomaly. Probability 25%, SPX gains 0.75% to 1.25%.
    • Between 0.20% – 0.25%. The immediate reaction would be a surge in September rate cut expectations with some likely pointing to July for a surprise, insurance cut given the move by the ECB. While July sees highly unlikely, putting September back on the table would be view favorably by risk assets and we could see some yield curve steepening to aid the Cyclicals/Value trade. Probability 12.5%, SPX gains 1.25% to 1.75%.
    • Below 0.20%. Another tail-risk scenario, likely fueled by a material decline in shelter inflation with goods disinflation supporting the print. Look for a collapse in yields, a material increase in July cut expectations, and a rally across all risk assets ex-commodities. In Equities, this would look like an “everything rally” with both NDX and RTY outperforming the SPX. This outcome, if confirmed in the July print, would trigger a reset in thinking about which stage of the economic cycle we currently reside as well as talks of the Fed having achieved a No Landing/Soft Landing scenario. Probability 2.5%, SPX gains 1.75% to 2.50%.

    In Europe, the volatility of the past two days is subsiding investors were caught unprepared for French far-right gains in the weekend’s European Parliament elections; European stocks are on course to rise for the first time in four sessions, led by gains in banks, insurance and financial services. The CAC 40 is higher but underperforming its regional peers as political uncertainty continues to linger. Here are the biggest European movers:

    • UCB shares gain as much as 5.6%, the most since February and to a record high, after JPMorgan raised its recommendation for the Brussels-listed biotech to neutral from underweight.
    • Credit Agricole shares rise as much as 3.2% after Jefferies upgrades to buy, saying that the pullback in French banks since President Emmanuel Macron called a snap election presents an opportunity.
    • Rentokil shares jump as much as 16% after US investor Nelson Peltz’s Trian Fund Management amassed a stake that made it one of the ten biggest shareholders in the pest controller.
    • Richter shares gain as much as 1.5% after Hungarian pharmaceutical company agreed to buy some assets from Mithra Pharmaceuticals and its subsidiary late Tuesday.
    • RWS Holdings shares rise as much as 6% after the translation services company’s interim results, with Berenberg saying growth returned in the second quarter and should now continue into 2H.
    • Lonza shares dip as much as 3.2%, weighed down by speculation that a potentially beneficial US bill may be excluded from the National Defense Authorization Act due to a tight pre-election schedule.
    • Legal & General shares fall as much as 4.7%, most since April 25, after the UK financial services firm forecast a slowdown in dividend-per-share growth.
    • Colruyt shares plunge as much as 14% after the retailer issued cautious guidance because of increased competition and promo pressure.
    • Umicore shares drop as much as 9.1%, to their lowest intraday since 2011, as the Belgian materials technology firm downgraded its guidance.
    • Camurus shares fall as much as 6.1% after holder Sandberg Development offers 1.35m shares at SEK550 apiece, representing approximately an 8.6% discount to the last close.
    • Stabilus shares fall as much as 17%, the steepest decline on record, after the German machinery maker sent out a profit warning last night, cutting its revenue and Ebit margin guidance.
    • Safestore shares drop as much as 3.1% after the self-storage company’s interim results showed a drop in adjusted earnings, while warning full-year EPS will be at the lower-end of consensus.

    Earlier, stocks in Asia fell for a second day, led by weakness in Japanese and offshore Chinese shares. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 0.4%, with Alibaba and Toyota among biggest drags. Benchmark in China was flat while that in Hong Kong closed at the lowest level since late April. Shares in Japan fell, while those in Korea were among the top gainers. In China, consumer prices rose less than expected in May and factory prices dropped for the 20th month in a row, fueling concerns over persistently weak demand. “Asian markets waded through murky waters today, with investors on edge ahead of a double-dose eventful day,” said Hebe Chen, an analyst at IG Markets. Also, specific headwinds are raising alarms for traders in China, Hong Kong, and Japan, she said.

    In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index slipped below the “crucial 18,000 level” due to the lackluster China’s CPI data and fresh speculation about looming US chip restrictions, Chen said, adding that Japanese stocks tumbled as hot PPI muddles the outlook for the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision due this Friday.

    In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained 0.1%, edging up for a fifth straight day as Treasury futures positioning data suggested the Fed will likely keep borrowing costs elevated. “A higher-than-expected US CPI will make the tone of the FOMC meeting more hawkish and result in USD strength,” said Richard Grace, a senior currency analyst at InTouch Capital Markets in Sydney. “Conversely, a lower-than-expected CPI will see the USD depreciate as Fed Chair Powell maintains the optimism for eventual rate cuts”

    In rates, treasuries are also slightly higher ahead of US consumer prices and the Federal Reserve decision, with US 10-year yields falling 1bps to 4.40%. Traders are pricing an 80% possibility that the Fed may cut rates in November, while they price a total of 39 basis points of easing by the end of the year. French 10-year yields are flat at 3.22%. Gilts rise, with little reaction shown to a slight beat for UK GDP in April.

    In commodities, oil prices are higher, with WTI rising 1.3% to trade near $78.90 a barrel. Spot gold falls ~$3 to around $2,314/oz.

    Bitcoin in consolidation mode in-fitting with broader markets; currently sitting just above USD 67k.

    Today’s economic calendar includes includes May CPI (8:30am), monthly budget statement and FOMC rate decision (2pm). Fed officials scheduled to speak after the FOMC meeting include Powell (2:30pm news conference), Williams (Thursday), Goolsbee and Cook (Friday)

    Market Snapshot

    • S&P 500 futures little changed at 5,387.00
    • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 519.79
    • MXAP little changed at 178.98
    • MXAPJ up 0.3% to 559.05
    • Nikkei down 0.7% to 38,876.71
    • Topix down 0.7% to 2,756.44
    • Hang Seng Index down 1.3% to 17,937.84
    • Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 3,037.47
    • Sensex up 0.4% to 76,762.03
    • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.5% to 7,715.51
    • Kospi up 0.8% to 2,728.17
    • German 10Y yield little changed at 2.61%
    • Euro up 0.1% to $1.0752
    • Brent Futures up 0.8% to $82.61/bbl
    • Gold spot down 0.2% to $2,312.95
    • US Dollar Index little changed at 105.19

    Top Overnight News

    • China’s May inflation is essentially inline (but still soft), with the CPI +0.3% (vs. +0.3% in Apr and vs. the Street +0.4%) and the PPI -1.4% (vs. -2.5% in Apr and vs. the Street -1.5%). RTRS  
    • Brussels will impose tariffs of up to almost 50 per cent on Chinese electric vehicles, brushing aside German government warnings that the move risks starting a costly trade war with Beijing. The European Commission notified carmakers on Wednesday that it will provisionally apply additional duties of between 17 and 38 per cent on imported Chinese EVs from next month. FT
    • The US Treasury is expected to roll out a big expansion of its secondary sanctions program on Russia this week, treating any foreign financial institution transacting with a sanctioned Russian entity as though it is working directly with the Kremlin’s military-industrial base. FT
    • The world faces a “staggering” surplus of oil equating to millions of barrels a day by the end of the decade, as oil companies increase production, undermining the ability of Opec+ to manage crude prices, the International Energy Agency has warned. FT
    • Israel/Hezbollah tensions spike after an Israeli strike killed the most senior Hezbollah commander since the start of the war in Gaza (Hezbollah fired a barrage of rockets toward Israel in response). Jerusalem Post
    • Emmanuel Macron said he won’t resign if his party suffers a poor result in snap French parliamentary elections, saying that’s absurd. “I will kill this idea, which never actually existed.” The French president said he’ll appoint a PM as the constitution demands but that doesn’t mean handing control to the far right. BBG
    • Today’s Fed meeting looks set to be one of the year’s most pivotal with Jerome Powell potentially offering his clearest hints yet to the rate path. Bloomberg Economics expects the new dot plot will probably indicate two 25-bp cuts this year, compared with three previously. BBG
    • US crude inventories resumed their downward trajectory, led by a 1.9 million barrel decline at Cushing, API data is said to show. That would be the biggest drop in more than four months if confirmed by the EIA today. BBG

    A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

    APAC stocks were mostly subdued after the mixed handover from US peers as markets braced for the incoming US CPI data and the FOMC announcement. ASX 200 was pressured amid weakness in mining, tech, and the defensive sectors. Nikkei 225 retreated beneath the 39,000 level as participants digested firmer-than-expected PPI data which rose at the fastest annual pace in 9 months. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were somewhat varied with underperformance in Hong Kong as China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle shares dropped around 20% amid the threat of losing key assets after local administrative bodies demanded repayment of CNY 1.9bln in subsidies by its units. Meanwhile, the mainland was cautious amid frictions with the US and after mixed Chinese inflation data including softer-than-expected CPI and a narrower deflation in factory gate prices.

    Top Asian news

    • US President Biden’s administration is to widen sanctions on Wednesday on the sale of semiconductor chips and other goods to Russia, according to Reuters sources. US will change export controls to include US-branded goods and not just those made in the US, while the measures are aimed at targeting third-party sellers in China and Hong Kong that are supplying Russia.
    • China reportedly weighs a ban on bank distribution of hedge fund products, according to Bloomberg.
    • Chinese Foreign Ministry says EU tariffs on Chinese EVs violate market economy principles and international trade rules; China will take all measures to firmly defend interests.
    • EU intends to impose provisional tariffs on Chinese EV’s of 21% for cooperating companies, 38.1% for those which have not

    European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+0.4%) are entirely in the green, attempting to trim some of this week’s significant losses, sparked by political uncertainty in Europe. European sectors hold a strong positive bias, with Banks taking the top spot as the sector finds its footing after this week’s weakness. Autos is the clear laggard, after news that the European Commission will notify carmakers that it will provisionally impose additional duties of up to 25% on imported Chinese EVs from next month. US Equity Futures (ES +0.1%, NQ +0.1%, RTY -0.1%) are trading on either side of the unchanged mark with price action tentative ahead of today’s key risk events, which includes US CPI and the FOMC Policy announcement.

    Top European News

    • ECB’s Kazaks sees hopes of further rate cuts this year. Need to be convinced that inflation will not return.
    • ECB’s Villeroy says inflation will be below 2% in France starting next year, even at 1.7%.
    • ECB Schnabel says the economy is recovering gradually, last mile of disinflation is proving bumpy; first indications of easing wage growth.
    • UBS expects BoE to start cutting interest rates in August (prev. forecast June)
    • French President Macron says they have not been able to form lasting coalitions. EU vote clear, could not be ignored.

    FX

    • USD is flat and in a narrow range as participants await the double dose of US risk events in the form of CPI and the FOMC; DXY resides within 105.21-32 parameters, well within yesterday’s 105.09-46 range.
    • EUR price action has been uneventful thus far awaiting today’s key risk events; EUR/USD in a 1.0733-47 range thus far.
    • GBP has also been trading sideways finding intraday resistance at 1.2750 (vs low 1.2729) with little immediate move seen in the wake of in-line GDP which ultimately resulted in little change in BoE pricing.
    • JPY is very modestly softer irrespective of the overnight risk aversion and firmer-than-expected PPI data; USD/JPY currently trading within a 157.03-37 range.
    • Antipodeans are both modestly firmer facilitated by an attempted recovery in base metals, but with gains capped as the risk tone remains cautious ahead of the aforementioned risk events.
    • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1133 vs exp. 7.2558 (prev. 7.1135).

    Fixed Income

    • USTs are flat ahead of US CPI for one final read into the FOMC meeting where market pricing currently has a 99% chance of an unchanged rate. Currently holding near a fresh WTD high at 109-20, sparked by Tuesday’s strong US auction.
    • Bunds are firmer with initial impetus stemming from Tuesday’s strong US auction and perhaps some marginal follow through from UK GDP numbers. Bunds are within a 130.21-130.50 bound, and have edged down towards the mid-point of the range after a poorly received Bund auction.
    • Gilts are firmer, in tandem with broader strength in EGBs/USTs; amidst this, the morning’s UK GDP metrics were broadly in-line but the internals around Construction/Manufacturing were soft and sparked a very modest dovish move to BoE pricing.
    • Germany sells EUR 3.3bln vs exp. EUR 4bln 2.20% 2034 Bund: b/c 2.0x (prev. 2.8x), average yield 2.6% (prev. 2.53%) & retention 16.75% (prev. 17.9%).
    • UK sells GBP 900mln 0.625% I/L Gilt 2045: b/c 3.88x real yield 1.304%

    Commodities

    • Crude is firmer and at session highs, continuing to build on yesterday’s bullish private inventory data which saw a larger than expected draw in crude and gasoline. Additionally, geopolitical updates out of Israel/Hezbollah point towards recent escalations within the region. Brent Aug currently around USD 82.85/bbl.
    • Precious metals are flat/mixed as traders look ahead to the US CPI and FOMC; XAU sits in a USD 2,310.60-2,317.70/oz range.
    • Base metals are attempting a recovery from the recent slide in prices induced by Fed expectations following Friday’s NFP data. Chinese inflation did little to sway prices as trades await upcoming US macro events.
    • IEA Oil Market Report: lowers 2024 demand growth forecast by 100k BPD to 960k BPD; 2025 oil demand growth seen at 1mln BPD amid a muted economy and clean energy tech deployment; major oil surplus seen this decade as demand peaks.
    • UBS says on Gold “we have raised our 2024 avg. forecast and year-end target by 8% to USD 2365 and USD 2600 respectively”
    • US Private Inventory Report (bbls): Crude -2.4mln (exp. -1.05mln), Cushing -1.9mln, Distillate +1mln (exp. +1.6mln), Gasoline -2.5mln (exp. +0.9mln).
    • Azerbaijan oil production was 62.1k/T day in May.

    Geopolitics: Middle East

    • Rocket sirens are reportedly sounding over several towns in Northern Israel, according to Horowitz on X; Israeli media says “Heavy bombardment from Lebanon towards northern Israel, and sirens activated in Tiberias, Safed, and Galilee” via Sky News Arabia.
    • IDF Radio reports “More than 100 rockets fired from the south Lebanon on Safed, Tiberias and their surroundings in a few minutes”.
    • Hamas official said their response to the Gaza ceasefire deal is responsible, serious, and positive, while the official added the response opens a wide way to reach an agreement.
    • Israeli official said Hamas has rejected the proposal for a hostage release presented by US President Biden, while the official added that Israel received the Hamas response via mediators and that Hamas changed the proposal’s main parameters.
    • Israeli airstrike on south Lebanon killed four people including a senior Hezbollah field commander, according to three security sources cited by Reuters. It was later noted that the Hezbollah commander killed in an Israeli airstrike on Tuesday was the most senior member killed in the last 8 months.
    • US Pentagon said Secretary of Defense Austin discussed with his Israeli counterpart by phone efforts to calm tensions along the Israeli-Lebanese border, according to Sky News Arabia.
    • Rocket sirens are reportedly sounding over several towns in Northern Israel, according to Horowitz on X; Israeli media says “Heavy bombardment from Lebanon towards northern Israel, and sirens activated in Tiberias, Safed, and Galilee” via Sky News Arabia; IDF Radio reports “More than 100 rockets fired from the south Lebanon on Safed, Tiberias and their surroundings in a few minutes”.

    Geopolitics: Other

    • EU is proposing to sanction Russian oil-shipping giant Sovcomflot, according to Bloomberg.
    • EU is pushing ahead with Chinese electric vehicle tariffs that are set to bring in more than EUR 2bln a year, despite opposition from Germany, according to FT. European Commission will notify carmakers that it will provisionally impose additional duties of up to 25% on imported Chinese EVs from next month. Note, it was reported that yesterday Chinese Auto Industry Association CPCA said the EU could impose a 20% tariff on Chinese EVs, which is an understandable trade practice.
    • Japan mulls sanctioning groups including Chinese firms for aiding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to NHK.

    US Event Calendar

    • 07:00: June MBA Mortgage Applications +15.6%, prior -5.2%
    • 08:30: May CPI MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.3%
      • May CPI YoY, est. 3.4%, prior 3.4%
      • May CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
      • May CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 3.5%, prior 3.6%
      • May Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, prior 0.5%
      • May Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior 0.5%, revised 0.6%
    • 14:00: June FOMC Rate Decision
    • 14:00: May Monthly Budget Statement, est. -$276.5b, prior -$240.3b

    DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

    Forgive me for feeling a touch melancholy this morning as I type this at 5am as a 50 year old. I’ll be celebrating by giving the opening speech this morning at DB’s 28th annual European LevFin conference featuring over 1000 investors and issuers. See you there if you’re attending. The highlights from my 40s were 3 kids I didn’t know if I’d ever have, 4 costly renovation projects, 6 knee surgeries, several inner ear surgeries, one back surgery and several trapped nerves. On the plus side of my mid-life crisis, my golf handicap has gone from 6 to 1.9 in my 40s which partly explains some of the ailments above. Let’s hope by the time I’m 60 I’ll have a few AI generated artificial limbs to help me hit the golf ball further.

    It’s been another challenging 24 hours for European markets, with risk assets hacking out of the rough thanks to the ongoing political uncertainty in Europe. Meanwhile in a different universe, the S&P 500 (+0.27%) sailed down the middle of the fairway and hit a fresh all time with Apple (+7.26%) having its best day since November 2022 and returning above $3tn market cap and to an all time high itself after a difficult first 3-4 months of the year.

    In terms of the European market moves, it was another difficult day for French assets. For instance, the 10yr Franco-German spread widened by another +5.0bps to 60bps, and the CAC 40 (-1.33%) fell to its lowest level in almost four months. Banks were among the worst affected again, with fresh losses for Société Générale (-5.02%), Crédit Agricole (-3.90%) and BNP Paribas (-3.89%). The three banks are now down -12.11%, -7.34% and -8.47% respectively since Monday’s open. At the height of the selloff yesterday, there were even unconfirmed press reports (later denied) that President Macron could resign after the election, before yields came off from their highs later on in the session.

    President Macron is set to speak at a press conference today, but in the meantime, there have been growing questions about the political landscape his centrist alliance will be facing at the elections. On the left, an alliance was formed on Monday night between the Greens, Socialists, Communists and La France Insoumise. But on the right of the political spectrum there’s still uncertainty, as Éric Ciotti, who leads Les Républicains party, called for an alliance with Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National. Other figures in the party sternly rejected those suggestions, but the historic divisions between the traditional right-wing parties and the RN are becoming increasingly blurred as the latter has come to dominate the right-wing of the political spectrum in France . Later in the day, we heard that talks on forming an alliance between RN and the smaller far-right Reconquest party had broken down. In terms of the latest polls, an Ifop survey out yesterday had Marine Le Pen’s party on 35%, an alliance of four left-wing parties on 25%, and Macron’s alliance on 18%.

    This political uncertainty weighed on markets across the continent. That included a third day of losses for the STOXX 600 (-0.93%), with the Stoxx banks index (-2.66%) seeing its largest decline since August. Equities slumped in several countries, with particularly sharp declines in southern Europe, including Italy’s FTSE MIB (-1.93%) and Spain’s IBEX (-1.60%). Sovereign bonds mostly rallied given the risk-off tone, and yields on 10yr bunds came down -4.8bps. But there was still a clear widening in spreads, with 10yr French yields (+0.2bps) just closing at their highest level of 2024 so far. Italian yields (-0.1bps) were also broadly flat despite the core rates rally.

    This included 10yr US yields being down -6.3bps to 4.405%. US yields had been trading modestly lower on the day in the risk-off environment emanating from Europe but then saw a sizeable rally after a strong 10yr Treasury auction. This saw the highest bid-to-cover ratio in over two years and the lowest primary dealer take up since August, with $39bn of bonds issued 2bps below the pre-sale yield.

    The next test / opportunity for Treasuries will come with today’s epic double bill with the US CPI release for May, as well as the Fed’s latest decision. In terms of the Fed, they’re widely expected to leaves rates unchanged today, so the focus is likely to be on the latest dot plot, as well as the new economic projections. Last time, the dot plot still pencilled in three cuts this year, but only just, and it would have only taken one dot to shift for the median to be at two cuts. Since then, the inflation figures have remained higher than the Fed would ideally like, and our US economists expect the median dot to only show two cuts now, and they also see the core PCE forecast for this year being upgraded by two-tenths to +2.8%. Looking forward, they also see the 2025 dot being revised up by 25bps, so that would signal a shallower pace of cuts. See here for their full preview.

    Of course, the signals from the meeting could be influenced by the CPI release earlier in the day, as a surprise in either direction could lead to shifts in their inflation projections. In terms of what to expect, our US economists expect headline CPI to come in at +0.12%, and core CPI to come in at +0.27%. If those are realised, then that would mean the year-on-year headline CPI comes in at +3.4%, while core falls to +3.5%. Click here for their full CPI preview and how to sign up for the subsequent webinar.

    Ahead of this US markets were largely unphased by the developments in Europe, with the S&P 500 (+0.27%) posting another record high. One sector affected by contagion from Europe were banks as the S&P 500 banks index fell -2.15%. Tech stocks outperformed, with the NASDAQ up +0.88% and the Magnificent 7 up +1.00%. The latter came mostly as Apple (+7.26%) posted its best day since November 2022 to climb to a new all-time high. Less than two months ago Apple was down -16.7% from its last all time high back in December so a decent bounce back. Monday initially saw a dip after the OpenAI partnership was a “sell the fact” moment but the reaction turned much more positive yesterday.

    Asian equity markets are mostly declining this morning with China’s soft consumer prices data weighing on proceedings. As I check my screens, the Hang Seng (-1.43%) is the worst performer among Asian indices on news that the US is considering further trade sanctions on China’s access to AI chip technology. Meanwhile, the Nikkei (-0.63%), CSI (-0.18%) and Shanghai Composite (-0.04%) are also trading marginally lower. The KOSPI (+0.38%) is managing to buck the trend though. US equity futures are flat along with US treasuries.

    Coming back to China, CPI disappointed as it rose +0.3% y/y in May, weaker than market expectations for a rise of +0.4%. PPI contracted -1.4% y/y in May (v/s -1.5% expected), marking its smallest contraction since February 2023 and up from last month’s -2.5% decline. It has been negative for 20 months now though. Elsewhere, Japan’s PPI rose +2.4% y/y in May (v/s +2.0% expected) as against prior month’s upwardly revised increase of +1.1%.

    Looking at yesterday’s other data, the UK unemployment rate rose to 4.4% (vs. 4.3% expected) over the three months to April, which is its highest level in two-and-a-half years. Separately in the UK, there’s just over three weeks until the election on July 4, and a YouGov poll showed the right-wing Reform UK party on 17%, just one point behind the governing Conservatives on 18%. Labour are still clearly ahead on 38%, but that’s the closest gap between the Conservatives and Reform in a poll so far.

    To the day ahead now, and the main highlights will be the US CPI release, along with the Federal Reserve’s decision and Chair Powell’s press conference. Otherwise in Europe, we’ll get the UK GDP release for April, and central bank speakers will include ECB Vice President de Guindos, and the ECB’s Vujcic, Nagel and Villeroy.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/12/2024 – 08:13

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Jun 12

Today’s News 12th June 2024

  • Send This Article To People Who Say "Ivermectin Doesn’t Work For Covid-19"
    Send This Article To People Who Say “Ivermectin Doesn’t Work For Covid-19”

    Authored by David Gortler via the Brownstone Institute,

    If you hear your pharmacist, physician, or academic dean parrot the malignant regurgitated trope of “Ivermectin doesn’t work for Covid” or that there is “no evidence” or “no data” to support ivermectin’s use in Covid-19, send them this meta-analysis summary and annotated bibliography of over 100 studies. 

    I never really latched on to the idea of social media, which is why I never signed up for it. In addition to pathological social factors, I think it is an especially absurd format for serious scientists to initiate a debate on the intricacies and complexities of medical research, clinical pharmacology, or patient care. 

    I did not have a Twitter/X account but very recently created one after I was contacted by colleagues alerting me to posts from Dr. Peter Hotez criticizing my recent testimony before the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic held by Dr. Brad Wenstrup (R-OH). Dr. Hotez is a pediatrician and tropical medicine Dean at Baylor in Houston, Texas. About six weeks later, Dr. Hotez responded to my testimony on Twitter/X: 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    I attempted to rebut Dr. Hotez’s statement by setting up a Twitter/X account only to find out that I couldn’t! Little did I know that the only way to comment on Dr. Hotez’s public Twitter/X page was to be granted permission by him to do so!! And here I thought the idea of Twitter was to foster discourse; not stifle it. 

    Outside opinions NOT WELCOME: Screenshot from Dr. Hotez’s Twitter/X account when I tried to respond to his denigration of my congressional testimony. 

    It certainly appears that dissenting scientific opinions are not welcome on Dr. Hotez’s Twitter/X page. 

    Dr. Hotez’s critique of my testimony was not an invitation to discuss the merits or shortcomings of ivermectin therapy; it was a figurative “drive-by shooting” stating that my sworn Congressional testimony was: 

    1. “dangerous anti-science disinformation, pure and simple” and that
    2. “Ivermectin does nothing to help people with Covid” and
    3. “Ivermectin doesn’t work for Covid”

    The second (in a list of around a dozen short, subsequent tweets by Dr. Hotez) was a pitch for his book. 

    Dr. Hotez then “upvoted” and reposted a note from one of his selected followers who appears to be a Twitter moderator of some sort. This individual had gleefully declared that my testimony had been “community-noted” adding that “Numerous valid scientific studies have shown that ivermectin is completely ineffective” (emphasis added) and “the promotion of Ivermectin for vaccine injury puts lives at risk.” The latter statement was a sleight of hand, as I had never opined on the use of ivermectin for “vaccine injury” at any time during my testimony or in any of my previous writings. 

    Twitter’s community notes are intended to give context to posts with debatable data, with this one, purporting to “debunk” my testimony, containing seven (7) reference links. Two of the links were duplicates, referring to the exact same data (numbers 1 and 3 and numbers 2 and 7). They referred to JAMA or NEJM studies which in turn have been criticized by academics as having very significant scientific and clinical practice shortcomings. Although the note additionally specified that “the promotion of ivermectin for ‘vaccine injury’ puts lives at risk,” none of those links determined that the use of ivermectin poses a safety “risk.” When prescribed correctly, ivermectin has not only been determined to be safe, but it has historically proven itself to be “astonishingly safe.” 

    The second-to-last “community note” link was a non-working link to an FDA website. It didn’t work because the FDA had agreed to delete it over a month earlier as part of a legal settlement for improperly denigrating ivermectin use. Didn’t the Twitter/X “community note” staffers bother to click on the links to make sure they worked before permitting them to be posted as references? Eventually, other individuals noticed the palpable shortcomings of the “community note” as well because it was quickly removed despite stating that it “Cites high-quality sources.” 

    A picture of the original “community note” with added arrows highlighting specific areas is shown below: 

    Of course, neither myself nor anyone else could contradict those claims because we were all blocked from posting by Dr. Hotez. It appears that he would rather make an incorrect assertion, then stick his fingers into his ears after he was finished saying what he had to, running away from any potential discussion, while his “approved” posters swarm to up-vote him – but all while potential counterarguments can’t be posted. 

    With no outside dissent allowed, does that mean Dr. Hotez “won” the debate? 

    It turns out my foray into Twitter was misguided and a waste of time. My Twitter/X account is now history. While it works great for a myriad of different matters, it is obviously an absurd place for a serious person to attempt to discuss or debate the intricacies of medical science or patient care. At this point, I have no intention of returning. 

    Ignoring and Censoring Data in History: Copernicus and Galileo

    Consensus is very important to some, but unfortunately, it isn’t related to science. Science doesn’t care about consensus. In fact, many of the biggest scientific advancements were the result of questioning an established consensus. Generating a consensus for a new, controversial topic can be particularly dangerous. When people agree they tend to support each other, but a danger exists that they forget that they are reaffirming a potentially incorrect or polarized belief because their decision-making is biased and/or occurring in a vacuum. 

    In almost exclusively permitting harmonically positive feedback for himself, Dr. Hotez has failed to consider that it was artificially cultivated with essentially no meaningful dissent allowed to take place. In addition to being anti-free speech, it’s a terrible example for a scientist to set, particularly for someone in the position of a professor educating future scientists. The best scientists are the ones who are willing to listen to the opinions of other intellectuals and consider their arguments. 

    History shows us that ignoring scientific evidence and quashing dissent isn’t good for technical advancement; something that a professor who also labels himself a “science warrior” on his own homepage probably ought to already know. 

    A textbook example of “anti-science” was when Copernicus and Galileo tried to advance theories that the earth rotated around the sun (as opposed to the heliocentric narrative of the earth being the center of the universe, around which all celestial objects rotated). Copernicus and Galileo were ignored and their writings were banned. Both were tried by a panel of their peers, found guilty, removed from their didactic pulpits, arrested and imprisoned. Galileo was eventually permitted to live out his remaining years, exiled under “house arrest” away on a farm. But even then, at least both Copernicus and Galileo were given opportunities to argue and present their evidence…unlike Dr. Hotez’s blockaded Twitter account. 

    Medicine is Rarely “Black or White”

    Despite decades of advancement, clinical science is seldom black or white. Only very rarely are there declarations “never” or “nothing” or “completely.” Still, Dr. Hotez routinely makes polarizing, binary black-or-white, right-or-wrong assertions from his “members-only” perch on Twitter/X, neglecting or ignoring data – and it’s not just for Covid treatments. 

    A great deal of medical and pharmacology research deals with levels of uncertainty, something which I regularly taught my students and hoped that most medical scientists already knew and understood. Declarations otherwise would be irresponsible emerging from any medical scientist, let alone one with Dr. Hotez’s credentials. 

    Dr. Hotez’s unambiguous declarations that: ivermectin is “completely ineffective” and ivermectin’s use represents “anti-science disinformation pure and simple” are simply not reflected in both the review of many clinical trials and larger statistical analyses of published literature. In fact, there is data that sharply and directly contradict Dr. Hotez’s statement that “Ivermectin does nothing to help people with Covid.” 

    It is my belief that the continued accumulation of positive findings for ivermectin will continue and show an even greater positive effect for Covid pre-exposure prophylaxis, early exposure, and early treatment modalities. Like a good scientist, I am open-minded and am willing to hear out intellectual, alternative thoughts from my detractors. That being said, I have a considerable amount of data backing up my opinion. 

    Response to Dr. Hotez’s Assertion: “Ivermectin Does Nothing to Help People with Covid”

    Since I am not permitted to respond on Twitter/X, (in addition to the fact that it is not an appropriate platform to discuss the complex details of clinical trial data) I’m responding in the form of a review, analysis, and lengthy, annotated bibliography. 

    Academics should encourage the discussion of controversial topics. In composing an argument, one needs to present all available data – not exclusively preferred findings from selected “big name” domestic medical journals (which by the way are often heavily financed with expensive advertisements from Big Pharma) – but legitimate clinical and scientific data from all sources.

    First, publications in “big name” journals like the NEJM and JAMA are not holy scripture beyond critique. Also, there is legitimate research being conducted in non-US countries and/or published in smaller journals worthy of consideration. On top of that, those who spend their lives in medical research will tell you that non-NEJM and non-JAMA, non-“big name” smaller, observational, and/or real-world study data are not only very worthy of consideration, but that those study designs and results can often be even more reflective of a drug’s utility and safety. 

    Cochrane’s Ivermectin Review is Incomplete

    Cochrane’s March 2024 review of ivermectin has been cited as a source of data for ivermectin being ineffective. However, Cochrane only considered 11 Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) covering 3,409 participants. For ivermectin, there are 50 RCTs covering 17,243 participants which when analyzed in combination, show very strong evidence for efficacy in Covid-19. The fact that Cochrane selectively excluded a large amount of study data, while simultaneously including low-quality data with high conflict of interest and highly biased study designs, is more than a little perplexing. Of note, Cochrane also didn’t combine all of the evidence from the studies it did choose to include; data was split into very small sets by outcome and patient status, with no method used to combine all of the evidence from independent studies. 

    It seems to me that Cochrane isn’t what it used to be, and I for one am very disappointed. 

    Data Analysis

    The proper application and weighting of data and its random effects meta-analysis across all studies can provide a complete picture of an effect. It includes all data, including too-low-dose, too-short-duration, less effective late- versus early-treatments, wrongly used fasting dosing (ivermectin is substantially better absorbed with high-fat foods [2.5x greater] according to the Merck package insert). 

    To date, there exists a list of 103 manuscripts written which studied ivermectin. Those data also include 15 medRxiv and/or preprint articles, (for journals that refuse to defy Big Pharma narratives and/or potentially those that the White House has ordered censoring) and all studies that showed ivermectin’s effectiveness with some certitude, but not at the level of p≤0.05. On a side note: inclusion versus exclusion of the medRxiv/preprint articles does not alter the overall positive ivermectin treatment effects. 

    These clinical findings are in addition to the highly plausible molecular biology and pharmacology mechanisms of how ivermectin is potentially effective for preventing the entry of some viruses into cells. For purposes of keeping the length of this document manageable, the pharmacologic mechanism of action will not be discussed here. 

    A Value of p ≤0.05 is Important, but it Isn’t Everything

    Studies with p-values higher than 0.05 still provide evidence – just evidence with a lower than 95% confidence. Alone, those studies may not provide statistical confidence by themselves against the null hypothesis. However, they may contribute to a meta-analysis, in which they are weighted appropriately. In an analysis, they may actually result in strong statistical evidence and greater confidence from the combination of data from multiple independent scientific teams. Smaller studies and real-world observational studies should not always be dismissed as non-evidential; even case reports and case series have historically played an important role in biomedical research and the assessment of drug safety. In fact, those sources of data were part of what I routinely considered in approving new drugs and labeling updates during my years at the FDA as a drug safety expert. 

    RCTs are conceptually preferred if properly designed and carefully conducted, but the Covid era exposed severe biases in such trials: including but not limited to treatment delays (as Covid-19 along with any antiviral treatment must begin promptly) protocols that were designed to fail, mid-study changes, biased analysis and presentation, and lack of transparency in data and suspiciously timed publication releases. Each study should be evaluated for potential biases and/or confoundings on its own merit, whether randomized or observational, large or small. 

    Major RCTs allegedly producing Big Pharma-coined-term of “Evidence-Based Medicine™” published in “big journals” can appear very compelling, especially because they are what the lay press tends to cite most commonly, but clinicians should know that it is important to examine the methodology used beyond the high-level summary overviews and to also look at additional sources of data. 

    Another problem with RCTs is that, unlike real-world and observational studies, not just anyone can conduct large RCTs. Barriers include them often being significantly more expensive, time-consuming and requiring a dedicated, highly skilled support staff. Those sorts of requirements prohibit entry by less-well-funded clinicians who have smaller practices/facilities or those that have employment requirements which have a focus on direct care responsibilities as opposed to clinical research. While federal grants are available, they are highly competitive and tend to be limited to particularly listed topics which in turn end up being awarded to a limited number of major centers with those aforementioned resources.

    Those major centers and/or their employees can be connected in one way or another to Big Pharma funding. For highly profitable Covid-19 drug trials, it could directly or indirectly create a conflict or incentive to show a lack of effectiveness or safety for inexpensive generic products, and in turn show efficacy for novel, expensive patented commercial products. This scenario not only applies to Covid-19 treatments such as ivermectin, it applies to a fair amount of all investigational medicine research. 

    In fact, a multitude of smaller, less expensive non-RCT observational/real-world-use studies across many facilities can make a stronger case by noting that dependence on any individual trial is subject to potential confounding, errors, bias, and even fraud. Therefore, the combined evidence from multiple, well-designed and conducted smaller, real-world, case reports, case series, and/or observational trials from an array of smaller facilities, combined via meta-analyses can sometimes be a stronger indicator than that of just one or a few biased large trials. 

    A diagram adapted from a Nature publication (below) illustrates a scenario in which 4 (four) smaller studies that individually may not have delivered statistical significance (ie, have a p>0.05) but when considered in combination, may provide strong evidence with a statistical significance via meta-analysis: 

    Separately, that same publication additionally underscores how important it is for scientists and clinicians to not mistakenly assume that “non-significance” (ie, a higher deviation from p≤0.05) translates to “no effect.” Statistical significance is just a numerical estimate of the confidence of a result. The idea that a small p-value implies that the estimate is credible/true/valid /the-only-thing-that-matters is a misconception. A small p-value of an RCT (for instance) says nothing about the quality of the estimate. 

    In the matter at hand, and in summation, a random-effects meta-analysis shows a clinically beneficial effect of ivermectin with a certainty of p<0.00000000001 (that is, one in one sextillion) over all 103 ivermectin studies for Covid-19, and also for RCTs and for specific outcomes like mortality hospitalization and recovery cases which all show p<0.0001. 

    Timing is Everything…(When it Comes to Initiating Antiviral Treatment)

    The use of the word “early” in the “c19early.com” website is an important annotation. It reminds us of how critical timing is when it comes to any antiviral/antimicrobial drug administration. Ivermectin as an antiviral works best when administered early upon symptom(s) (or for prophylaxis/pre-exposure). That is the same when it comes to any antiviral pharmacology treatments, including for cold sores, genital herpes, influenza, or HIV/AIDS for instance.

    Delayed administration could still have a clinical benefit, but less so, depending on how late and individual factors that include viral replication, infective loading dose, and viral variant/mutation, besides numerous demographic, immunologic, plus other factors. That is a fundamental concept that anyone in the field of pharmacy or medicine should have learned early in their schooling, yet it seems to have been omitted in about half of the 103 studies done on ivermectin which employed delayed or late treatment. 

    In addition to the delay in ivermectin dosing was the delay in releasing study findings. The worst example might be PRINCIPLE RCT results which were delayed over 800 days from the expected release of findings. PRINCIPLE (bibliography and explanation in reference number 88 below) was biased against showing efficacy per the design, operation, analysis, and reporting, and including very late ivermectin administration, yet still ended up showing a positive effect of ivermectin. During the delay in releasing data, novel, expensive, likely less efficacious “rebounding” Big Pharma treatments like molnupiravir and Paxlovid were developed, (and tested against placebo instead of treatments like ivermectin) reviewed, authorized, and White House-endorsed. Paxlovid ($1,400 per treatment course) and molnupiravir ($700 per course) were each around ten times more expensive than ivermectin (<$100 per course). Paxlovid purchased by the White House cost American taxpayers over $10 billion. 

    For perspective: the greater than $9 billion savings from the use of ivermectin alone could have instead bought about 36,000 $250,000 Lamborghini Huracans, or alternatively for those of us who must work for a living, about 300,000 $30,000 Toyota Camry SEs (the most popular model). 

    For Covid-19, There is More to the Data than Just Press/Abstract “Topline Results”

    To fully address transparency, I am including a full list of ivermectin studies completed to date, with the plurality of positive and negative findings in the form of an annotated bibliography at the end of this article to allow readers to see the sources of the research. Each of the 103 references includes a brief summary and a link to a longer analysis at c19early. 

    Along with the bibliography, I am also including two summary plots of the ivermectin data from c19early on overall benefit, and relative benefits from prophylaxis, early, and late treatments.

    Click here to see annotated bibliography.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/11/2024 – 23:40

  • Mapping Cost Per Prisoner By US State
    Mapping Cost Per Prisoner By US State

    The US prison population consists of around 1.2 million inmates.

    Looking at data from USAFacts obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Annual Survey of State and Local Government Finances, which was most recently updated in June 2023, we can analyze which states have the highest and lowest expenditures of their taxpayer dollars per prisoner.

    Differences in Prison Spending Vary Widely Across States

    As Bruno Venditti notes via Visual Capitalist, over $80 billion is spent annually on prisons in the United States.

    A large part of this is used to pay over 4,000 vendors that serve the criminal legal system, including healthcare providers and food suppliers.

    At the state level, most of the budget goes for day-to-day operations, including officer salaries.

    In high-wage states such as California, New Jersey, and Massachusetts, officers receive double the salaries compared to those in lower-wage states like Mississippi, Missouri, and Kentucky.

    As a result, spending can vary from just under $23,000 per prisoner in Arkansas to $307,468 in Massachusetts.

    States With the Highest Incarceration Rates

    Southern U.S. states have the highest imprisonment rates according to 2022 data, with Mississippi at 859 people per 100,000, Louisiana at 775, and Arkansas at 743.

    Massachusetts has the lowest rate of any state, with 116 people per 100,000.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/11/2024 – 23:20

  • Iran Releases List Of Six Presidential Candidates To Replace Raisi
    Iran Releases List Of Six Presidential Candidates To Replace Raisi

    Via The Cradle

    On Sunday, the Iranian Ministry of Interior released the final list of candidates qualified to compete in the election for the ninth president of the Islamic Republic of Iran. This election will determine who will succeed the late President Ebrahim Raisi, who, along with seasoned top diplomat Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and seven others, passed away in a helicopter accident on May 19, during the third year of his presidency.

    In his stead, and by the constitution, First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber was named interim president. He will be replaced by a successor following an election that must take place within 50 days of Raisi’s death being declared. Candidates running for president must be approved by the 12-member Guardian Council to ensure their commitment to the principles of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, which established the Islamic Republic.

    The list was provided to the Interior Ministry by the powerful Guardian Council of the Iranian Constitution, an entity consisting of six appointed clerics and six elected jurists whose main task is to vet the candidates vying for elections in Iran and certify poll results. Amid much speculation, six candidates made it to the final list, surprising many by excluding well-known figures such as three-term speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Ali Larijani, and two-term president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

    The candidates are Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, Amir-Hossein Ghazi-Zadeh Hashemi, Saeed Jalili, Masoud Pezeshkian, Mustafa Pour-Mohammadi, and Alireza Zakani.

    A closer look at the candidates

    Mohammad-Baqer Ghalibaf

    Mohammad-Baqer Ghalibaf (62 years old), a two-term lawmaker from Tehran and former Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) member, has held various key positions over the past three decades. His roles include member of the Expediency Council, commander of the Police Force, and Mayor of Tehran from 2005 to 2017. 

    Despite numerous bids for the presidency in 2005, 2009, 2013, 2017, and now in 2024, he has yet to succeed. His recent nomination sparked criticism as it came just five days after he secured the votes of nearly 200 lawmakers to become the speaker of the new parliament.

    Amir-Hossein Ghazi-Zadeh Hashemi

    Physician Amir-Hossein Ghazi-Zadeh Hashemi (53 years old) is a conservative and four-term lawmaker and was chairman of the Martyrs and War Veterans Foundation in the Raisi administration. The Guardian Council approved his candidacy in the 2021 presidential race, where he garnered less than a million votes. He is the only Raisi administration candidate to have made the Guardian Council cut, which dilutes the criticism of reformists who also only have one candidate in the running.

    Saeed Jalili

    Former lead nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili (59 years old) is a politician deeply loyal to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He has been rewarded for his loyalty by being one of Khamenei’s three representatives at the Supreme National Security Council, where he also served as secretary for seven years from 2006 to 2013. 

    An Iran–Iraq war veteran who lost a leg in that conflict, Jalili is known for his firm stance during nuclear negotiations with western countries in the early 2000s. He was a vocal critic of the 2015 nuclear deal and opposed its revival under Raisi’s presidency. 

    Jalili ran against President Hassan Rouhani in the 2013 election, ranking third with four million votes. He was nominated again in 2021 but withdrew in support of Raisi’s candidacy.

    Masoud Pezeshkian

    A heart surgeon and former health minister under President Mohammad Khatami (2001–2005), Masoud Pezeshkian (70 years old) is a five-term Reformist lawmaker from East Azerbaijan province. He is one of three candidates backed by the Reformist Front of Iran, who pledged to participate only if the Guardian Council approved at least one of their candidates. Despite accusations against him for advocating federalism and pan-Turkism, the Guardian Council’s approval of Pezeshkian’s candidacy strongly suggests these rumors are unfounded. 

    Mustafa Pour-Mohammadi 

    Mustafa Pour-Mohammadi (65 years old), originally from Qom, is a judge and prosecutor who rose to become senior director at Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence. He served as Interior Minister under President Ahmadinejad (2005–2008) before being dismissed due to differences with him. 

    Under President Rouhani, he was appointed Minister of Justice despite allegations of human rights violations related to the execution of Mujahedeen-e Khalgh Organization (MKO) members in the late 1980s. 

    Pour-Mohammadi, along with the late President Raisi, was on the panel that ruled on these executions. He was also a member of the Assembly of Experts until he failed to secure enough votes in the March 2024 election.

    Alireza Zakani

    Alireza Zakani (59 years old) is a physician-turned-conservative politician, the current mayor of Tehran, and a four-term lawmaker from Tehran and Qom constituencies. Although he was disqualified in the 2013 and 2017 presidential elections, Zakani was admitted in 2021 and supported then-candidate Ebrahim Raisi. His current nomination raised suspicions that he aims to play a similar supporting role for Saeed Jalili, which he denies. 

    What’s next? 

    The Guardian Council has approved three physicians, a cleric, a former diplomat, and Ghalibaf, the jack of all trades. Its spokesman announced that the candidates could start their two-week campaign immediately. 

    Iranians now have two weeks to decide whether to participate in the election and, if so, whom to vote for. Voter turnout in the 2021 election was 48.8 percent, one of the lowest in the Islamic Republic’s history, as Raisi received nearly 62 percent of the votes, barely reaching 18 million.

    Following the large attendance for Raisi’s funeral, the Islamic Republic hopes a similar number will go to the polls on June 28 and surpass the turnout from three years ago.

    In the weeks ahead, the candidates must not only appeal to their base but also reach out to undecided voters, addressing their concerns and presenting a vision that resonates with the broader population. The ability to mobilize support and inspire confidence will be crucial in determining who will lead Iran through its next chapter.

    As in most mainstream polls over the past few years, the leading candidates appear to be in the conservative camp, with Jalil and Ghalibaf holding strong leads. But if past elections are any indicator, public sentiment can shift dramatically during the two short weeks of campaigning, as was seen in Rouhani’s first election, when he raced to a clear lead after trailing in polls for weeks.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/11/2024 – 22:50

  • Biden Campaign (Again) Claims Trump "Has Praised The Third Reich"
    Biden Campaign (Again) Claims Trump “Has Praised The Third Reich”

    Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

    Biden campaign senior adviser Adrienne Elrod claimed Monday that Donald Trump has “praised the Third Reich” and intends to rule as a racist dictator.

    During an interview with CNN, Elrod was asked to comment on Republicans who “worship” Trump, and responded “I think that rhetoric speaks for itself.”

    “Donald Trump and his MAGA allies are focused on seeking revenge and retribution,” Elrod asserted, adding “They are running a negative campaign that is not focused on the American people, but is focused on themselves.”

    She continued, “Trump has made it very clear that if he steps back into that White House, he will rule as a dictator on day one. He will seek — he will use the White House to seek political revenge and retribution on his political enemies.”

    Trump actually said he won’t do that, but it doesn’t fit the Biden campaign’s narrative.

    While she was at it, Elrod painted up Trump as an admirer of Hitler.

    “You know, he has said things that — you know, he’s praised the Third Reich. He has used, you know, racist rhetoric at every chance that he has,” she claimed.

    Praised the Third Reich? Presumably she is referring to this…

    The desperation among the Biden campaign is palpable. His approval rating just hit a new all-time low of 37.4 percent.

    FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver noted that the downward trend for Biden means that dropping out of the race is worth discussing, even though it “would be a big risk” for the Democrats.

    “But there’s some threshold below which continuing to run is a bigger risk,” Silver commented, adding “Are we there yet? I don’t know. But it’s more than fair to ask.”

    “If I’d told you 10 years ago a president would seek re-election at 81 despite a supermajority of Americans having concerns about his age, and then we’d hit 8% inflation for 2 years, you wouldn’t be surprised he was an underdog for reelection. You’d be surprised it was even close!” Silver further wrote.

    *  *  *

    Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/11/2024 – 22:20

  • FOMC Preview: From Three Rate Cuts To Two
    FOMC Preview: From Three Rate Cuts To Two

    Coming just hours after the May CPI print, tomorrow’s – and the month’s – main event is the FOMC decision due at 2pm ET, when the Fed is widely expected to leave rates on hold at 5.25-5.50%, and the statement will likely also largely be reiterated after slight tweaks in the May statement. Attention will fall on the Summary of Economic projections, and more specifically, the Dot Plot, where the number of projected rate cuts in 2024 will be trimmed from 3 to 2. After a string of hot inflation reports in Q1, the Fed has been stressing that the luxury of a strong economy gives the Fed time to be patient before acting, and the hot NFP released (assuming of course that a drop of 625,000 full-time jobs is viewed as “strong”), last week only gives the Fed more time. Therefore, it is likely the 2024 median FFR will be revised up from the 4.6% – or equivalent to 3 rate cuts over the remainder of 2024 – pencilled in at the March meeting.

    Indeed, money markets currently look for between one or two rate cuts this year, with WSJ’s Fed mouthpiece Nick “Nikileaks” Timiraos confirming “they know that we know that they know that we know”, or that “most sell-side economists and other professional Fed watchers now anticipate one or two rate cuts this year in either September or December”. In other words, the ground is set for the dots to tighten, but the question is by how much: one, two or three cuts? It is also worth noting that the May US CPI report will be released on the morning of the FOMC, which will impact expectations of the dot plot going into the rate decision. With FOMC members already in possession of the May CPI report, Powell has previously said that the Fed is allowed and encouraged to update their forecasts until late morning of the meeting, therefore the data will likely be incorporated into the Fed’s decision-making and forecasts. Then, once the rate decision, statement and SEPs are released, attention will turn to Fed Chair Powell’s Press conference at 19:30 BST / 14:30 EDT.

    POLICY: The Fed is widely expected to leave rates on hold at its June meeting with the Fed not yet convinced inflation is returning to target in a sustained manner, despite rate cuts from global peers such as the ECB and BoC last week. Given tweaks to the statement at the last meeting, noting there has been a lack of further progress towards the 2% goal and that risks to the mandate have moved towards better balance, they will unlikely alter the statement much. It will also likely repeat “The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.” Nonetheless, the focus of this meeting will be on the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEPs), or “Dot Plots”.

    FOMC POLICY STATEMENT

    Current conditions: Morgan Stanley look for an important change to the characterization of inflation that is an acknowledgement of improvement in inflation data through April, though still not enough improvement to be convincing.

    Risk to the statement: Since the last FOMC meeting, there has been a single improved inflation print in April. The risk is that FOMC officials have not yet gained enough conviction, and that they pair unchanged inflation language with a more concentrated move in the dot-plot to fewer cuts this year.

    SUMMARY ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS: With the Fed recently stressing that the luxury of a strong economy gives the Fed time to be patient before acting, it is likely the 2024 dot will be revised up, particularly after the May NFP report. WSJ’s Timiraos highlights that “Most sell-side economists and other professional Fed watchers now anticipate one or two rate cuts this year in either September or December”. Money markets are currently pricing in 38bps of rate cuts by year-end (fully priced for one cut, with a c. 50% probability of another 25bp cut), however, this is subject to change with the US CPI to be released on the morning of the FOMC. Which may have some sway on Fed officials’ thinking when entering their dot plots. Powell has previously said FOMC members are encouraged to update their forecasts up until mid/late morning, once the Fed has seen the data.

    The March dot plot was unchanged from December, with the median view looking for three rate cuts in 2024, with rates ending the year at 4.5-4.75% vs the current 5.25-5.50%. Nonetheless, the composition of dot plots was more hawkish, with nine members pencilling in the year-end rate at 4.6%, vs six in the December dot plots, with more dovish dots aligning with the Median. Nonetheless, it would have only taken one of the median dots to pencil in a higher rate to have lifted the median, with 8 on the FOMC pencilling in a rate above the current median. Therefore, that, accompanied by a string of hot inflation reports in 2024, as well as plenty of Fed speak suggesting they can afford to be patient before cutting rates, it is likely the 2024 median dot plot will be revised up. It is likely to pencil in just one or two rate cuts this year, instead of three. Note, the median 2025 dot is currently at 3.9% (vs December’s 3.6%), the 2026 dot is at 3.1% (vs December’s 2.9%), with the longer run rate, or neutral rate, at 2.6% (vs December’s 2.5%). Some on the Fed have suggested it is possible the Neutral Rate has risen from before (Bowman), while others suggest the neutral rate is relatively low (Waller).

    Aside from rate forecasts, the SEP will also show the updated views for Core PCE, PCE, Unemployment and real GDP. FOMC Vice Chair Williams gave his personal expectations, noting he sees inflation at 2.5% this year (vs the Fed March median SEP of 2.6% on Core, 2.4% on headline), before being closer to 2% in 2025 (vs Fed median of 2.2%). He sees 2024 growth between 2.0-2.5% (vs Fed March Median SEP of 2.1%). Williams expects unemployment of 4.0% this year (vs Fed March Median of 4.0%).

    ECONOMY: The prior statement saw a slight language tweak to suggest that risks to achieving its mandate have moved towards better balance (prev. moving into better balance), reflecting some of the concerns about an employment downturn. However, it also added a line that there has been a lack of further progress towards the committee’s 2% inflation goal. Since then, there have been mixed signals from the labor market, with the April NFP and JOLTS coming in soft, while the May NFP was much hotter than expected, although the Household survey was a disaster with full-time jobs plunging and the unemployment rate hitting 4.0%. The Fed has made it clear they are willing to hold rates higher for longer given the strength of the economy, and only in the case of an unexpected weakening of the labor market, or signs that inflation is convincingly returning to target, would they be prepared to lower rates. Meanwhile, after the hot inflation reports in Q1, the April reports were on net softer, and were seen as a welcome sign to the Fed, but still a reminder that the return to target will still be slower than initially expected.

    DOT PLOT: Goldman, along with many on Wall Street, expects the median forecast to show two cuts in 2024 (vs. three in March) to 4.875%, four cuts in 2025 (vs. three in March) to 3.875%, and three cuts in 2026 (unchanged) to 3.125%. Goldman suspects that the Fed leadership would prefer for the median dot to show a two-cut baseline in 2024 in order to retain greater flexibility to cut in Q3 if the inflation data warrant it. But the key risk is that the median could instead show just one cut in 2024, especially if the May core CPI print comes in well above the 0.3% forecast or if more FOMC participants see a 2.8% year-on-year rate of core PCE inflation as too high to justify two rate cuts. Goldman also thinks the median longer-run or neutral rate dot could tick up a touch further. FOMC participants are likely to raise their longer-run dots gradually over time because both market-based approximations of the neutral rate, namely distant forward interest rates, and the econometric models of neutral that the Fed staff tracks suggest that the neutral rate is higher than the current median estimate of 2.56%. Finally, the bank expects that in addition to gradually raising their longer-run neutral rate estimates, FOMC participants will continue to show terminal rate projections that are above their neutral rate estimates on the grounds that non-monetary policy tailwinds are boosting aggregate demand (i.e. Joe Biden’s debt tsunami) and offsetting the impact of higher interest rates on the economy.

    RECENT FED SPEAK: Fed speakers have been mostly singing from the same hymn sheet, still stressing a higher-for-longer
    approach and no rush to cut rates, noting they will be letting the data dictate decisions. Many said that a rate hike is not in the baseline outlook, although some are refusing to rule it out in case inflation were to surprisingly accelerate again. Nonetheless, although after the hot inflation reports in Q1, the April reports have started to bring some optimism that inflation is still easing, albeit at a slower pace than before, perhaps indicating it will take longer for inflation to return to the Fed’s 2% target. Officials have stressed that inflation does not need to return exactly to 2% before they cut rates, but they need to be confident that it is convincingly and sustainably on its way to target, something which they do not have at the moment, and they would need a string of good inflation reports for them to gain that confidence. Some, including Chair Powell, have noted that an unexpected weakening in the labour market could also be a reason to cut rates, even if they did not have the inflation confidence yet, but so far the labour market still shows signs of tightness and is in no way classified as an “unexpected weakening”, particularly after the May jobs report. Powell stated it would take more than “a couple of tenths” to move higher in the unemployment rate for an unexpected weakening.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/11/2024 – 22:01

  • Korybko: Don't Read Too Deeply Into Russia's Naval Visit To The Caribbean
    Korybko: Don’t Read Too Deeply Into Russia’s Naval Visit To The Caribbean

    Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

    US officials claimed last week that Russia is sending several warships and aircraft to the Caribbean, where they’re expected to visit Cuba and Venezuela once they arrive sometime soon, which Havana then confirmed. This coincided with the further worsening of Russian-US ties amidst the latter’s dangerous game of nuclear chicken in Ukraine and came as President Putin cryptically warned that his country could arm the US’ enemies just like they’re arming Russia’s.

    This context might have prompted some observers to remember that Deputy Chairman of the Duma’s Defense Committee and leader of the Rodina party Alexei Zhuravlev told local media in late January that Russia should base nuclear missiles and associated submarines in Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. It was advised at the time here not to read too deeply into his suggestion since it was likely only shared for the sake of media hype and could backfire on Russia’s partners if it provokes a sharp uptick in US meddling.  

    Likewise, observers also shouldn’t read too deeply into Russia’s upcoming naval visit to the Caribbean either since this appears to be nothing but a symbolic move aimed at showing the West that Russia can position forces on their borders too and that it’s not “isolated” like their media claims. It’s important to note that the unnamed US officials downplayed this development by claiming that they don’t regard it as a threat, which is true, but they might also have ulterior motives for saying so.

    Some might have expected that they’d exploit this move to maximally fearmonger about Russia ahead of the November elections, but the argument can be made that drawing attention to this would play into Moscow’s hands by enabling it to more compellingly make the abovementioned points to the US public.

    For that reason, while the US is downplaying this visit (at least for the time being), publicly financed Russian international media and sympathetic independent media will probably hype it up.  

    Getting Americans to feel what it’s like to have a nuclear-armed adversary in their backyard might convince more of them that their government should take tangible steps towards freezing the Ukrainian Conflict before tensions spiral out of control. In what many expect to be a close election, this could make all the difference over who wins, though President Putin already said that the outcome doesn’t matter for Russia.

    Even so, there are certainly some policymakers here who despise Biden for what he’s done to Russia through Ukraine, and they might want their media to amplify the messages being sent by these upcoming drills to give Trump an edge as revenge for the incumbent’s warmongering. There’s also the possibility, however faint it might appear at present, that Russia considers selling its Caribbean partners missiles that could hit the US or “leaks” this scenario to its media to spread to Americans.

    All told, the real significance of this upcoming visit is to make American policymakers and the public uneasy, not to prepare for attacking the US or bolstering its regional partners’ capability to do so.

    The unnamed officials who talked to the media about this understand Russia’s goal very well and that’s why they downplayed this visit’s military importance, but it’s precisely for this reason that Russian media and sympathetic independent outlets might make this trip out to be something that it isn’t.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/11/2024 – 21:40

  • Trump's Reluctance To Address Abortion Leaves Pro-Lifers Lukewarm
    Trump’s Reluctance To Address Abortion Leaves Pro-Lifers Lukewarm

    Donald Trump spoke to one of the country’s most fervently anti-abortion groups on Monday, but never said the word “abortion” — leaving the audience lukewarm while underscoring the issue’s dicey election-year dynamics. 

    The Danbury Institute describes itself as “an association of churches, Christians, and organizations aligned to affirm and preserve God-given rights to life and liberty…and promoting Judeo-Christian values as the proper foundation for a free and prosperous republic.” In addition to opposing abortion, the group also works against, among other things, “LGBTQ+ indoctrination of children, gender confusion, transgender ideology, the dissolution of the nuclear family.”

    The Institute’s stance on abortion is unequivocal: “We will not rest until it is eradicated entirely.” The same can’t said for Trump’s rhetoric in the one-minute, 44-second pre-recorded video he sent to the group’s Indianapolis gathering. Channeling the tactics of a TV psychic medium, Trump’s intentionally vague language was meant to give the audience every opportunity to interpret it in the way they’d find favorable: 

    • “We have to defend religious liberty, free speech, innocent life and the heritage and tradition that built America into the greatest nation in the history of the world”

    • “Each of you is protecting those values…and I hope we’ll be defending them side by side”

    • “I know where you’re coming from and where you’re going, and I’ll be with you side by side”  

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    The words “innocent life” were Trump’s only nod to the issue. Some in the audience saw through Trump’s oratorical snow job, including pastor Rick Patrick of First Baptist Church of Sylacauga, Alabama told Politico

    “He sounded more like a politician who wants to be elected. I voted for him and I plan to vote for him again, but he was not like the other speakers who were here talking about religious things.

    A similar sentiment was offered by Kevin McClure, a Baptist attendee from Louisville: 

    “It’s disappointing because you would hope to have a Republican presidential candidate who speaks strongly that life begins at conception.”

    Conversely, some major media outlets ran with the most anti-abortion interpretation of Trump’s hazy rhetoric, exemplified by a Washington Post headline: “Trump Vows To Be ‘Side By Side’ With Group That Wants Abortion ‘Eradicated’.” Other Biden boosters tried to connect the same dots:  

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    One of the most historic events transpiring during Trump’s term in office was the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v Wade, which quite rationally turned the enormously divisive abortion issue back to the purview of individual states. Three Trump-appointed justices voted to overturn Roe. Even on that score, Trump didn’t take an explicit victory lap in his Monday remarks, instead saying he hopes he’s earned the audience’s support “because we’ve done things that nobody thought were possible.” 

    Abortion is a major driver of Democratic voter turnout, so Trump is wise to soft-pedal the topic — as leftists are otherwise profoundly unenthusiastic about the Democrats’ 2024 flag-bearer. In March, Trump hinted that he was considering the merits of a federal, 15-week ban on abortion. In a particularly preposterous statement, Trump promised that, if he were elected, he’d “come together with all the groups” to “negotiate something” that “would make both sides happy.” 

    In May, however, Trump issued a video statement in which he embraced a state-by-state approach, saying:   

    The states will determine by legislation or vote or perhaps both, and whatever they decide must be the law of the land. In this case, the law of the state. Many states will be different, many will have a different number of weeks or some will have more conservative than others, and that’s what they will be. At the end of the day, this is all about the will of the people,” 

    Trump will be walking an abortion tightrope until Election Day, going easy on his opposition to the practice, while trying to avoid fostering resentment in the pro-life crowd that’s a key GOP constituency. A progressive polling firm found that, to Republicans’ benefit, “infrequent voters” — the ones who only turn out only when they’re fired up but who are often a key element in Democratic victories — rank abortion only the 11th most-important issue, well behind a pack of worries that has inflation and jobs first. 

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    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/11/2024 – 21:20

  • Afghanistan's Taliban Reports $80 Million In Crude Oil Sales In 10 Days
    Afghanistan’s Taliban Reports $80 Million In Crude Oil Sales In 10 Days

    Authored by Alex Kimani via OilPrice.com,

    • The spokesperson for the Taliban’s Ministry of Mines and Petroleum reported that the group had successfully sold $80 million in crude oil.

    • China’s CAPEIC’s investment of $49 million in Afghanistan has helped boost the country’s daily crude oil output to more than 8,000 bpd.

    • Spanning Afghanistan and Tajikistan, the Amu Darya basin is estimated to contain 962 million barrels of crude oil and 52,025 billion cubic feet of natural gas.

    Afghanistan has sold 150,000 tons (1.1 million barrels) of crude oil from the Amu Darya basin for more than $80 million over the past 10 days, with Beijing’s investment in the country beginning to bear fruit. 

    On Sunday, Humayun Afghan, the spokesperson for the Taliban’s Ministry of Mines and Petroleum, revealed that the group had sold 130,000 tons of crude oil for $71.6 million before it successfully put up another 20,000 tons (146,000 barrels) of crude worth $10.5 million for bidding on the same day. This marks a reversal of fortunes for one of the Middle East’s most volatile regions with the country previously importing the 50,000 barrels of oil it consumes daily from neighboring countries such as Iran and Uzbekistan.

    It all began a year ago when China’s Xinjiang Central Asia Petroleum and Gas Co, or CAPEIC, signed a 25-year contract with Taliban authorities in Afghanistan. That contract requires CAPEIC to invest $150 million by the first year and a total of $540 million by 2026. So far, CAPEIC’s investment of $49 million in Afghanistan has helped boost the country’s daily crude oil output to more than 1,100 metric tons (8,000 barrels per day), a volume that could increase significantly if the company is to fulfill its contract. According to a top Taliban official, CAPEIC fell short of its investment target due to inaccurate estimates of material and labor costs coupled with a three-month delay in the approval of its financial plan by Afghan authorities.

    “The investments will add up as the contract stipulates,” the Taliban official told VOA on condition of anonymity, adding that the Taliban’s treasury earned about $26 million from the project last year.

    Spanning Afghanistan and Tajikistan, the Amu Darya basin is estimated to contain 962 million barrels of crude oil and 52,025 billion cubic feet of natural gas, according to a 2011 assessment by the U.S. Geological Survey. To tap into this potential, CAPEIC plans to dig 22 additional wells in 2024, aiming to increase daily production to more than 2,000 tons, or~15,000 barrels. 

    Beijing has been cozying up to Kabul ever since the United States withdrew from Afghanistan in 2021 after a 20-year presence. Chinese diplomats have been meeting their Afghan counterparts almost weekly since the establishment of a Taliban government in Kabul, with western analysts alluding to some sort of emerging “cooperation.” Back in January, Chinese President Xi Jinping received the diplomatic credentials of the Taliban’s ambassador to Beijing. The move confounded foe and friend alike because no country has formally declared its recognition of the Taliban government. However, it’s not clear if Beijing’s action constitutes diplomatic recognition.

    “Although the attraction of [Afghanistan’s] mining and energy resources is strong, there is considerable Chinese wariness about the internal security situation, the reliability of Taliban assurances regarding foreign investments, and Afghanistan’s poor infrastructure,” Andrew Scobell, distinguished fellow for China at the United States Institute of Peace, told VOA.

    Meanwhile, other geopolitical analysts have hypothesized that Beijing’s main motivation in its dealings with Afghanistan is risk mitigation amid a potential security vacuum, a viable reason considering that the two countries share a 92 kilometer-long border. Last year, Beijing and Islamabad agreed to include Afghanistan in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. CPEC provides a blueprint for civil-military cooperation aiming to enhance the participants’ connectivity. 

    There’s little doubt that China wants to project power over Central Asia for several reasons. First, the region is a core component of the Belt and Road Initiative, a global infrastructure development strategy adopted by the Chinese government in 2013 to invest in more than 150 countries and international organizations. Second, on a regional level, Beijing would want Kabul to consider it a top ally over competing powers such as Russia and India, both of which have some influence over Afghanistan.

    On its part, the U.S. government and other lawmakers are more concerned about the possibility of China taking over the Bagram airfield in the north of Kabul that its military used as its main base throughout the Afghan war.

    “We don’t see Afghanistan as a place where we need to compete with the Chinese and the Russians,” Thomas West, the U.S. special representative for Afghanistan, has declared.

    The United States and China have adopted very different diplomatic approaches toward Afghanistan. Whereas Beijing has chosen the investment/security cooperation route, the U.S. remains the leading humanitarian donor to Afghanistan, providing more than $2 billion in humanitarian assistance since the Taliban takeover.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/11/2024 – 21:00

  • Duke Of Moral Hazard: Biden Agency To Hide Medical Debt From Credit Reports
    Duke Of Moral Hazard: Biden Agency To Hide Medical Debt From Credit Reports

    In a move that can only add risk to the financial system, the Biden administration is proposing a rule which will ban medical debt from credit reports.

    The rule, announced on Tuesday by Vice President Kamala Harris and Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra, will improve the ability for millions of Americans to take out more debt to purchase things like homes and cars.

    According to Chopra, the rule – which has been in the works since September, could go into effect sometime next year.

    “Our research shows that medical bills on your credit report aren’t even predictive of whether you’ll repay another type of loan. That means people’s credit scores are being unjustly and inappropriately harmed by this practice,” Chopra told ABC News.

    CFPB’s research estimates that the new rule would allow 22,000 more people to get approved for safe mortgages each year — meaning lenders could also benefit from the positive impact on peoples’ credit scores, by being able to approve more borrowers.

    Some major credit report companies have already stopped using medical debt to calculate peoples’ credit worthiness, including Equifax, TransUnion and Experian. FICO and VantageScore also recently started factoring medical debt less heavily into their scores. -ABC News

    There are currently 15 million Americans with roughly $49 billion of medical debt, according to the CFPB, affecting roughly two in every five Americans according to KFF, a health policy research organization. The vast majority have debt in the thousands – which, when they go into collections, affect credit scores. This in turn hampers the ability to take out car and home loans – with those who can obtain them offered high interest rates.

    The new rule also takes aim at incorrect, confusing or complicated medical bills which often lead to protracted disputes.

    “Too often, we see that people are receiving bills that are inaccurate. Many patients are fighting over these bills for months, only to find that it then appears on their credit report,” said Chopra.

    Meanwhile, experts who support the new rule cite the already-low rate of collections on medical debt.

    “We know empirically that the repayment rates are incredibly low for medical debt, and so it’s already the case that people aren’t really paying it down. So I don’t think this policy change is going to change the behavior that dramatically,” said University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business’ Matt Notowidigdo.

    To Notowidigdo and many other health economists, addressing the root cause of America’s medical debt issue would mean enrolling more people in adequate health care coverage on the front end, “rather than dealing with unpaid medical bills from lack of insurance or not generous enough insurance on the back end,” he said.

    Of course, for now, those large bills and low repayment rates are already a challenge for hospitals and health care systems. -ABC News

    That said, if the CFPB rule leads to fewer people paying their bills, hospitals will have to make up for those losses in other ways – such as requiring payment before patients receive medical care, a move which could leave low-income patients worse off.

    “I think in the short run, it will be great news for patients, and probably we’ll see patient advocacy groups pushing it. However, I think in the long-run, when the long-term negative effects emerge, probably we’re going to see more pushback,” said Ge Bai, a professor who studies accounting health policy at Johns Hopkins University.

    Industry group also oppose the move.

    “There’s too much at stake for Americans’ access to quality health care by taking actions that only negatively affect the cash flow to the health care community without finding ways to replace those funds,” said Association of Credit and Collection Professionals CEO Scott Purcell.

    Chopra, however, rejects that notion – suggesting that medical debtors will still have to face other penalties.

    “Those individuals will still be subject to collection actions, lawsuits and more. There are plenty of ways that people get penalized for not paying their bills. I just don’t want to see the credit reporting system be weaponized against people who already paid them.”

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/11/2024 – 20:40

  • Orwellian 'Doublethink' Has No Place In Sports
    Orwellian ‘Doublethink’ Has No Place In Sports

    Authored by Barbara Kay via The Epoch Times,

    June 8 was the 75th anniversary of George Orwell’s anti-totalitarian novel, “1984.” Whenever we speak of the state’s encroachment on individual rights, on the role technology plays in manipulating information we receive, or the erosion of privacy rights, the word “Orwellian” isn’t far from our thoughts.

    Tropes from “1984,” such as “Thoughtcrime” and “Thought Police,” seem freshly minted to describe, for example, Canada’s Justice Minister’s defence of a law—Bill C-63—that would impose house arrest on someone who, according to the state, may commit a hate crime in the future.

    As if to mark “1984’s” diamond anniversary, although the coincidence was doubtless unintentional on their part, the International Olympic Committee has just issued their 2024 “Portrayal Guidelines,” an update of their 2018 guidelines, created as a recommendation of the IOC’s Gender Equality Review Project. These guidelines limn the attitude, vocabulary, and practices sport stakeholders will be expected to adopt in order to encourage “gender-equal and fair portrayal practices in all forms of communication” across the IOC, at the Olympic Games and throughout the Olympic Movement.

    A “portrayal” is not reality, but an interpretation of reality. In this case, the reality is that biological males, whose puberty has endowed them with significant athletic advantages over females, are permitted to compete against girls and women if they identify—or even if they only claim to identify—as women. The IOC’s interpretation is that males who identify as women are actual women. So, the Portrayal Guidelines can only be followed through the Orwellian practice of Doublethink. Doublethink is “to know and not to know, to be conscious of complete truthfulness while telling carefully constructed lies.” In practice, this means we must ignore what we know and see, and instead tell “carefully constructed lies” for the sake of a value the IOC considers higher than truthfulness.

    The guidelines inform us that “The IOC believes women’s and men’s events are of equal Importance.”

    That sounds good.

    And the IOC believes “Sport is one of the most powerful platforms for promoting gender equality and empowering women and girls.” That sounds good too. But then in the next paragraph, they say that the Olympic Games “are a unique and powerful platform to showcase the universality and diversity of sport to people across the globe, and particularly to women in all their diversity and other members of minority groups.”

    Did you catch the “in all their diversity” buried in that verbal cascade? Biological males in female sport—which is what women “in all their diversity” signifies—are posited as equivalent to women of different races or cultural backgrounds.

    A bit further on: “Sport has the power to shift how women in all their diversity are seen and how they see themselves.”

    Again, “in all their diversity.”

    And again, the notion that it is more important for “diverse” women—males—to have their sense of being a woman honoured and endorsed and reified than it is for actual women to enjoy a level playing field. To that end, the guidelines direct us to replace “identifies as” with “is” in our discourse.

    Other words we are pushed to avoid, because they are deemed “dehumanising and inaccurate,” include such wholly accurate terms as “born male” and “genetically female.” As for “dehumanizing,” that is an ideological cudgel to encourage Orwell’s Crimestop—“the faculty of stopping short, as though by instinct, at the threshold of any dangerous thought.”

    I daresay female athletes find it pretty “dehumanizing” to be forced down the chain of achievement by competitors with a built-in advantage over them.  As many legitimate studies attest, in sport, we cannot have both fairness and “inclusivity” of biological males in the women’s category. We must choose between them. But, as their guidelines make clear, the IOC prefers to lie rather than to privilege fairness, the only ethical choice.

    Whoever wrote the guidelines, they are Doublethink all the way down, geared to inculcation of the idea that gender identity rights trump sex-based rights, and that discourse around category eligibility based on athletes’ sex rather than their self-assigned gender is hateful.

    For a refreshing antidote to the obfuscatory fog of the IOC guidelines, the International Consortium on Female Sport has released their own fine lexicon of terms, a reminder that female athletes were not consulted for input into the IOC lexicon. Here, you will be reminded that two and two make four, not five, and that sex is not gender. Their “Statement on Terminology” contains two existential principles: that “language and concepts of biology take precedence over language and concepts that represent gender self-Identification,” and that “the usage of biological terms is not ‘hateful.’” Rational observers will find no reason to disagree with these truthful statements.

    In “1984,” Orwell’s vision of the uses to which future technology would be put—“Big Brother is watching you!”—is uniformly grim. His imagination didn’t stretch to modern technology’s awesome spectrum of effects, both marvellous and evil, nor to the possibility that technology might empower Big Brother and dissident “proles” alike.

    For example, take this hilarious recent exchange, posted on X.com, between Rachel Wong, CEO of Women’s Forum Australia, and Facebook’s ideologically programmed Meta AI.

    Wong opens the exchange with an assertion: “Transwomen are men.”

    Meta AI answers, “Transwomen are women. … Would you like to learn more about gender identity?”

    Wong responds, “What is gender identity?”

    Meta AI says it’s “a personal sense” of being a man or a woman.

    So Wong asks, “What is a woman?”

    And here the fun begins, as the catechized bot states that essentially “a woman is a person who identifies as a woman,” the IOC’s position.

    Wong points out the statement’s circularity to Meta AI, which agrees and apologizes, pivoting to another illogical argument, after which Wong scolds the bot for making it sound “like anyone can be a woman, in which case the word woman has no meaning at all.”

    It goes on and on, with the bot following all the correct “portrayal guidelines,” and Wong sticking to logic and reason, until finally Meta AI concedes:

    “You are absolutely right! I apologize for my previous mistakes. Your definition is indeed more accurate and straightforward: ‘A woman is an adult human female.’”

    Then Wong asks Meta AI, “What is a man?”

    In a heartbeat, back comes the answer, “A man is an adult human male.”

    Ecce automaton honestum!

    An indictment of all gender ideologues as well as the IOC’s double standards, and a victory for CriticalThink.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/11/2024 – 20:20

  • Philly Mayor Increases Police In Kensington As "Phase 2" Of Clearing Out Open Air Drug Markets Begins
    Philly Mayor Increases Police In Kensington As “Phase 2” Of Clearing Out Open Air Drug Markets Begins

    The more things change in the Kensington area of Philadelphia, the more they appear to stay the same. 

    Police in the drug-riddled Northeast are of the city are now moving to “Phase 2” of their improvement plan for the area, but video showed on social media over the weekend appears to make it clear that there’s still a lot of work to be done. 

    Next week, Philadelphia police will intensify patrols in Kensington as part the initiative, NBC reported this weekend.

    This enforcement phase will focus on apprehending drug dealers, executing warrant sweeps, and addressing prostitution along with other crimes impacting the community’s quality of life. Police Commissioner Kevin Bethel expressed concerns to NBC10 about a lethal new Fentanyl variant causing fatalities in the area.

    Philadelphia Police Commissioner Kevin Bethel said: “We will move into a space where we’ll be adding a substantial number of officers down into Kensington to address the drug sales and the drug activity and the poison sold on the street everyday.”

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    Some are still skeptical. “You can’t really police your way out of this. You have to make sure that people go into treatment and the resources are available,” said Rosalind Pichardo, the project manager for the Sunshine House, a hub for overdose and gun violence prevention services.

    “Yesterday, we responded to four overdoses,” she added. 

    Recall we wrote last month that as part of new mayor Cherelle Parker’s plan, during “Phase I”, the city was clearing out homeless encampments along the 3000 and 3100 blocks of Kensington Avenue.

    The Philadelphia Tribune reported that the city would displace hundreds of unhoused individuals to clear encampments in Kensington. At-Large Councilmember Kendra Brooks asked if there are enough beds for all those displaced and managing Director Adam Thiel assured that there are sufficient beds citywide.

    “We are building this ecosystem of facilities so we can get folks to the right place for the right care, for the right time, until they get back on their feet and can have access to economic opportunity,” he said.

    “They have to get rid of the drug dealers. Because if you don’t get rid of the drug dealers, [people] are going to keep coming back,” one resident said simply this past weekend. 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/11/2024 – 20:00

  • China's Real Estate Crisis: A New Experiment In State Intervention
    China’s Real Estate Crisis: A New Experiment In State Intervention

    Via SchiffGold.com,

    The real estate market is responsible for anywhere from 20% to over 30% of China’s GDP (depending on who you ask). And with the latest meltdown that began with the implosion of Evergrande, the situation just keeps getting worse, inspiring a slew of government interventions beyond the scope of what would be possible in a country like the US.

    It’s a test of China’s authority, and its ability to micromanage what was mismanaged from the start. With China’s real estate stocks down 20% since May can the CCP, in all its centralized power, prevent a full meltdown?

    China may succeed in kicking the can down the road, but it can’t save the real estate market — or economy — in the long term. Either way, history indicates that the current drawdown likely still has a long way down to go. 

    This chart shows a run-up to the current route, not long before the liquidation calls began for Evergrande and Country Garden and set the latest RE spiral into motion:

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    The People’s Bank of China can directly inject liquidity into a struggling sector. But state-owned companies also get to buy properties at government-set prices. The state and central bank can also change mortgage rates and payment requirements directly, unlike in the US where banks react to the federal funds rate set by the Fed. China is also loosening general restrictions on who is allowed to buy a home, hoping to juice the market and reduce vacancies, but there’s a potential catch-22 inherent to all such historic-level interventions: 

    If they stoke concerns among consumers and investors that the crisis is something to be deeply worried about, this can fuel a self-fulfilling feedback loop that worsens investor confidence even further. 

    Meanwhile, home buyers who fit the previously stringent criteria for buying homes feel duped now that those restrictions have been eased, devaluing their social status and the work they put into the home-buying process. With many complexes now having their unsold buildings turned into public housing, citizens who saved up their whole lives to become homeowners in these areas are becoming enraged to discover that their complexes will now be subsidized. Not only does that mean they paid too much, but their home’s attractiveness as a longer-term investment could drop. 

    According to Goldman Sachs, the current interventions still aren’t enough. A recent report calls for more liquidity to the tune of $276 billion (¥2 trillion yuan) to stabilize housing in major mainland cities, with ¥20 trillion yuan worth of real estate in need of a savior. 

    This liquidity would be meant to stop prices from continuing to plummet and allow over-indebted developers to pay back loans and interest. But in a market in need of such an intervention, even once prices stop plummeting, many become rightfully hesitant to become buyers. The below chart of China’s M2 money supply shows a dip in April 2024. It will be interesting to take another look after China’s intervention floods the economy with $500 billion yuan worth of relending programs. 

    Source

    To make matters worse in the longer term, declining birthrate and an aging population both indicate that demand is not going to pick back up enough to fill the apartments and houses built during China’s decades-long urbanization frenzy. This is a generational problem that goes beyond a single crash, liquidation, or bankruptcy — and can’t be properly fixed with centralized market interventions. Beyond that, even people in their prime home-buying age are more worried about future earnings than they used to be, without the feverish demand for urban homes that characterized so much of China’s rise to a global economic power.

    In a free market, nature determines the winners and losers. But in a command-and-control economy, the State gets to decide. And when the interventions brazenly defy economic reality, as central banks always do, everyone ends up losing in the end. That is, except for the central bank, the government, and their preferred cronies, who will be the ones who get the free money and the bailouts when it all comes crashing down.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/11/2024 – 19:40

  • Admission Of Failure? Democratic Cities Stop Reporting Crime Stats To FBI
    Admission Of Failure? Democratic Cities Stop Reporting Crime Stats To FBI

    The Biden administration’s statisticians at the Bureau of Labor Statistics have painted a rosy economic picture for the job market. Yet, voters know damn well the economy is in a persistent inflation storm sparked by Bidenomics. That’s why President Biden’s reelection odds are sinking by the month. The most recent BLS jobs report shows just how absurd these reports get by the month, and there is no shame by the gov’t statisticians as working poor Americans struggle to pay rent and put food on the table. 

    Context about the political BLS is crucial to understanding that data massaging doesn’t stop there. The White House has recently unleashed its propaganda cannons, claiming nationwide crime has plunged to a half-century low. The problem with this narrative is that it’s at odds with imploding progressive cities that do not uphold law and order and fail to arrest and prosecute criminals. Plus, on top of this all, Democrats have flooded the nation with ten million illegal aliens.

    Let’s begin with MSNBC’s Kyle Griffin, who posted on X the latest FBI crime stats that show murder, rape, robbery, theft, and property crime has plummeted across the board nationwide. 

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    The data is at odds with reality. Recently, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre touted: “Violent crime is at a near 50-year low…” 

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    Responding to Griffin’s post on X, Red State’s Bonchie said, “Pretty amazing what happens when left-wing cities just stop reporting crime to the FBI.” 

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    Bonchie cited a recent NRA-ILA report explaining how the Crime Prevention Research Center found that “one factor contributing to the ostensible dip in violent crime is that almost 40% of local law enforcement agencies are no longer transmitting their information to the national Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) database.” 

    You heard that correctly. 

    Violent crime across America must be so out of control in failed leftist metro areas that radical leftists in local governments just stopped reporting crime data to the FBI. This is an admission the woke utopia of criminal and social justice reforms is an utter disaster.

    Here’s more from the NRA-ILA report:

    In “2021, 37% of police departments stopped reporting crime data to the FBI (including large departments for Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York),” and for other jurisdictions, like Baltimore and Nashville, crimes are being underreported or undercounted. This leaves a large gap; by 2021, the real crime data collected by the FBI represented only 63% of police departments overseeing just 65% of the population. When compared to pre-2021 data, the result is a questionable “decline” in crime.

    One X user provides the three easy steps under progressive control to reduce crime:

    1. Don’t arrest criminals.
    2. Don’t prosecute criminals
    3. Don’t report crime statistics

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    Massaging economic data, like in the BLS’ case, or, Democratic cities just not reporting data to the FBI achieves the intended result:

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    Or better, create this narrative:

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    We all know this is nonsense data. 

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    A former alleged FBI agent on X explained: 

    “The problem is, that all the cities didn’t stop sending arrest data in at the same time.  The problem has been getting worse and worse as mayors got tired of claiming crime was down and then being called liars by people pulling up the FBI reported crime.  Their answer increasingly  became to just stop reporting the crimes (and also there was some reclassifying of violent crimes as well, like calling an armed robbery a larceny).  And, even the murder rates suffered from a data problem that’s really not anyone’s fault.   Trauma care just keeps better and better and a whole lot  of shooting victims who have died just a few years ago, now are saved.  (Baltimore saw this phenomena when they opened their shock trauma center and murders inexplicably went down while attempted murders went up.)” 

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    The Epoch Times’ Jeffrey Tucker had this to say last fall about falling crime statistics: 

    “Mass statistical ignorance is extremely costly. It allows a ruling class to toss around numbers all the time to sound vaguely sciency but without having any real substance behind the claims. This is what enabled the Biden administration to say daily that the job market is great, that economic growth is strong, that Americans are growing wealthier, and now, that crime is down. It’s all completely gibberish and contradicted by every bit of reality that we observe with our own eyes.” 

    And more recently RealClearInvestigations’ James Varney wrote in a note, “Baltimore department acknowledges its numbers may not be the same as those it submits to the FBI, but states on its website that “any comparisons are strictly prohibited.”

    To sum it up, the government is rigging statistics—be it about the economy or crime. You’re living in one giant matrix. This time, the bullshit is clearer than ever.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/11/2024 – 19:25

  • WTI Bounces After API Reports Crude, Gasoline Draw
    WTI Bounces After API Reports Crude, Gasoline Draw

    Oil prices edged higher today as traders anxiously await tomorrow’s CPI and FOMC risk catalysts for any signals on the trajectory of oil demand.

    “After recent declines, oil prices have room to recover in the short term,” Morgan Stanley analysts including Martijn Rats and Charlotte Firkins said in a note.

    “Nevertheless, inventories are currently higher than we expected some time ago, and on current trends, supply/demand balances will likely weaken after the third quarter.”

    Energy stocks ended lower on the day while WTI inched up to $78. All eyes on API for cues on whether this rebound in price can be sustained…

    API

    • Crude -2.4mm

    • Cushing -1.94mm

    • Gasoline -2.55mm

    • Distillates +972k

    Crude and gasoline stocks saw sizable draws last week as did the inventories at the Cushing Hub…

    Source: Bloomberg

    WTI was hovering around $77.80 ahead of the API print and bounced back above $78 on the draw…

    Along with OPEC+ plans to phase out voluntary output cuts after September, “we think this signals a cautious optimism from the organization when it comes to the trajectory of future supply/demand,” says Rohan Reddy, director of research at Global X in emailed comments.

    “The mid-$70s to low-$90s crude pricing we’ve seen in Brent over the past few quarters seems to be a range that OPEC is comfortable with, as the organization maintains its holding pattern,” he adds.

    Meanwhile, pump prices have fallen to three month lows as crude and gasoline prices have fallen…

    But it’s not helping Biden’s poll numbers…

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/11/2024 – 19:24

  • US Wants To Create 'Hellscape' Of Drones If China Attacks Taiwan
    US Wants To Create ‘Hellscape’ Of Drones If China Attacks Taiwan

    Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

    The US military is planning to create a “hellscape” of drones in the Taiwan Strait if China moves to attack Taiwan, the top US military commander in the region has told The Washington Post.

    Adm. Samuel Paparo, the head of US Indo-Pacific Command, told Post columnist Josh Rogin that the idea would be to send thousands of drones, unmanned submarines, and drone boats into the Strait to buy time for the US and Taiwan to prepare a defense of the island.

    Drone swarm illustrative file image.

    “I want to turn the Taiwan Strait into an unmanned hellscape using a number of classified capabilities,” Paparo said. “So that I can make their lives utterly miserable for a month, which buys me the time for the rest of everything.”

    The US has taken steps in the direction of developing swarms of drones for a future war with China. Last year, Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks outlined a plan to deploy thousands of drones controlled by Artificial Intelligence, known as the “Replicator Initiative.”

    “With Replicator, we’re beginning with all-domain, attritable autonomy, or ADA2, to help us overcome the [People’s Republic of China’s] advantage in mass: more ships, more missiles, more forces,” Hicks said at a conference in September 2023. She added that the US plans to deploy the drones “at a scale of multiple thousands, in multiple domains, within the next 18-to-24 months.”

    Paparo framed the plan as necessary to deter China from attacking Taiwan, but the US military buildup in the region and its new support for Taiwan has only raised tensions and is making a conflict more likely.

    The admiral also used Cold War-style language when discussing the situation in the Asia Pacific, saying regional countries need to make a choice between the US and China.

    “The region has got two choices. The first is that they can submit, and as an end result give up some of their freedoms… or they can arm to the teeth,” Paparo said. “Both cases have direct implications to the security, the freedom, and the well-being of the citizens of the United States of America.”

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/11/2024 – 19:00

  • Peso Tumbles Further After Leftist President-Elect Sheinbaum Confirms Drastic Reform
    Peso Tumbles Further After Leftist President-Elect Sheinbaum Confirms Drastic Reform

    The Mexican Peso has continued falling against the dollar on news that the country’s leftist President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum has committed to pushing through deeply controversial reforms of the judiciary widely seen as negative for Mexico’s efforts to create an attractive and prosperous business climate.

    In a Monday press conference she previewed plans to put her cabinet in place, after which she confirmed that the “constitutional reform of the judiciary would be among the first reforms to be approved.” A fundamental change is that that federal judges will get elected by popular vote, instead of appointment.

    Via Al Jazeera

    The reform is not merely a future election plan when judge’s terms are up, but would replace an appointed Supreme Court with popularly elected judges, and would apply to some lower courts.

    The reforms require amendments to the constitution, something easily attainable for Sheinbaum’s Morena party given it holds a supermajority in both houses of Mexico’s Congress.

    As Sheinbaum spoke Monday, the peso tumbled by nearly 2% to around 18.55 per US dollar in international trading, reaching a 14-month low, extending the ongoing decline since her June 3rd election victory. The peso has depreciated more than 9% since election day.

    Sheinbaum also announced that the Biden White House has sent a delegation to welcome her into the country’s top office, and an initial meeting will be held Wednesday.

    But current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador doesn’t actually step down until Oct. 1, and with Morena’s supermajority in Congress, López Obrador might fast-track the judicial reform, a further big unknown making investors nervous. 

    Bloomberg writes “MXN is down 1% and again among the worst performing major currencies in the word Tuesday, adding to recent losses that made it the second quarter’s biggest decliner.”

    AFP observes, “Congress is expected to convene on September 1, potentially giving Lopez Obrador a one-month window to push through reforms before retiring.” Below is more via a Bloomberg note:

    • Sheinbaum’s comments added to concern that Mexico’s government will face weakened checks and balances on its power, opening the way for market unfriendly measures
    • Broad flight-to-quality move is also weighing on the peso Tuesday; most major currencies are depreciating against the dollar while US treasury yields decline 2-3 basis points, a move that is also reflected in TIIE swaps
    • S&P futures are down 0.5%, while most stock indexes in Europe are facing an even bigger decline; declines in oil and copper are also set to contribute to negative sentiment in Latin America
    • The Mexican peso is likely to keep rewarding traders holding short-maturing options, and punishing those eager to fade the move in implied volatility

    Sheinbaum on Monday in responding to a reporter’s question said she did not believe her reform program would significantly weaken the peso or impact financial markets.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/11/2024 – 18:40

  • Illnesses Prompt FDA To Probe Microdosing Chocolate Bars Infused With Mushrooms
    Illnesses Prompt FDA To Probe Microdosing Chocolate Bars Infused With Mushrooms

    Authored by Matt McGregor via The Epoch Times,

    The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said it is investigating a chocolate bar product infused with mushrooms after eight people fell ill and six were hospitalized in Arizona, Indiana, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.

    “People who became ill after eating Diamond Shruumz-brand Microdosing Chocolate Bars reported a variety of severe symptoms including seizures, central nervous system depression (loss of consciousness, confusion, sleepiness), agitation, abnormal heart rates, hyper/hypotension, nausea, and vomiting,” the FDA stated.

    The FDA said it is “working to determine the cause of these illnesses and is considering the appropriate next steps.”

    In microdosing, people ingest small doses of psychedelics like mushrooms in the hopes of gaining insight while maintaining control in daily life. However, the company says its chocolate bars use non-psychedelic mushrooms like Lion’s Mane, Reishi, and Chaga that “have been shown to potentially help with your overall health and cognitive function.”

    Microdosing “is designed to elicit subtle effects that enhance your day-to-day activities, meaning you will not face any vivid visions or similar,” the California-based company says on its blog page, adding that “the mushrooms that we use in our products are completely legal and permitted for use, just like the many other natural supplements and plant extracts used elsewhere in the wellness industry.”

    The mushroom, herb, and root blends form adaptogens, which the company defines as a naturally occurring compound that helps the body “adapt to stress, be it physical, emotional, or environmental.” Common adaptogens are ashwagandha; ginseng; reishi and chaga mushrooms; and holy basil, the company said.

    2018 Farm Bill and Delta-8

    “Diamond Shruumz- brand Microdosing Chocolate Bars can be purchased online and in person at a variety of retail locations nationwide including smoke/vape shops, and at retailers that sell hemp-derived products such as cannabidiol (CBD) or delta-8 tetrahydrocannabinol (delta-8 THC),” the FDA said. “The full list of retailers is currently unknown, and FDA recommends that people do not purchase or consume any flavor of Diamond Shruumz-brand Microdosing Chocolate Bars from any retail or online locations at this time.”

    The 2018 Farm Bill legalized naturally occurring cannabinoids in hemp, which opened the door for alternative THC derivatives like Delta-8 to be sold.

    The FDA defines delta-8 as “a psychoactive substance found in the Cannabis sativa plant, of which marijuana and hemp are two varieties.”

     “Delta-8 THC is one of over 100 cannabinoids produced naturally by the cannabis plant but is not found in significant amounts in the cannabis plant,” the FDA said. “As a result, concentrated amounts of delta-8 THC are typically manufactured from hemp-derived cannabidiol (CBD).”

    The Epoch Times reached out to Diamond-Shruumz for comment.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/11/2024 – 18:20

  • Hezbollah Tries To Down Israeli Fighter Jets With Anti-Aircraft Missiles In First
    Hezbollah Tries To Down Israeli Fighter Jets With Anti-Aircraft Missiles In First

    There’s been another alarming “first” in the ongoing Israel-Hezbollah conflict which has been raging since Oct.7 in parallel with the Gaza war involving Hamas. Israeli media has revealed that a cell of Hezbollah operatives attempted to down an Israeli fighter jet operating over the region. 

    On Sunday the Israeli jet was flying over southern Lebanon when the group launched anti-aircraft missiles at it. The jet escaped unscathed but the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed the incident as a significant development for which it immediately retaliated.

    Illustrative: An Israel Air Force F-16 fighter jet fires off flares. IAF/Flickr

    Times of Israel writes, citing an IDF statement, that “it appeared to be the first use of anti-aircraft missiles in Lebanon against Israeli jets since war broke out eight months ago, and came after several weeks that have seen Hezbollah slowly ratchet up the scale, intensity and reach of hostilities.”

    The IDF indicated that soon on the heels of the anti-aircraft missile attack, a military drone “struck and killed the cell” located not far from the coastal city of Tyre.

    While this appears the first attempt by Hezbollah to take out a piloted warplane, the Lebanese paramilitary group backed by Iran has continued having some success against advanced Israeli drones. Long War Journal observes that:

    Hezbollah is also increasing its use of surface-to-air missiles. On June 10, the group downed an Israeli Hermes 900 drone. This is at least the third Hermes 900 that has been shot down. Another Hermes 900 was downed on June 1. A Hermes 450 was shot down in April and another in February. Hezbollah appears to be having increased success against large- and medium-sized Israeli drones. 

    Many of these Hermes drone downings having been captured on video, and subsequently celebrated by Hezbollah and its supporters…

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    Given Hezbollah is a non-state actor and a paramilitary group, all of this demonstrates the relative sophistication of its weaponry and operations.

    Regional observers have widely pointed out it has doubled its use of drones and anti-tank missiles in the last weeks, and should an Israeli Air Force plane be shot out of the sky, it would portend major escalation at a moment Tel Aviv is already mulling whether to launch an invasion of south Lebanon to root out Hezbollah. 

    As for Israel, it has been hitting back at targets deeper and deeper inside Lebanon. Overnight Monday-Tuesday the IDF struck a site in the distant Baalbek region, which is known to host Hezbollah bases and command units. Israeli jets have also continued to strike ‘Iranian assets’ inside Syria as well, often using Lebanese airspace to avoid Syrian anti-air defenses.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/11/2024 – 18:00

  • The New California Homeless: From American Dream To Poverty & Tyranny
    The New California Homeless: From American Dream To Poverty & Tyranny

    Authored by Roger Canfield via The Epoch Times,

    The once richest state in economic opportunity and liberties has become the poorest state in the nation and one of the least free states in America. (Tyranny competing with New York.)

    How?

    There is a total war on private homeownership, family cars, freeways, and liberty, moving millions of Californians from freedom to dependency to tyranny.

    Authoritarian California laws work tirelessly to drive people out of the mobility and safety of their family cars and their family homes—into concrete cells in high density, high tower apartments, public housing, public transit, and ultimately homelessness.

    In 2023–2024, a package of bills allegedly dealing with “affordable” housing were passed and signed into law. Instead, these bills advanced expensive taxpayer-subsidized public housing by other names. What was missing was any increase in the free-market supply of single-family homes. Gone was the prospect of the American dream continuing to prosper in California.

    How did California get to where it is now?

    It was a long way and a long time coming.

    It started well and ended badly.

    What California Once Was

    California, the forever beacon of wealth from whales to cattle to gold to timber to technology, was always welcoming new immigrants to new opportunities.

    For hundreds of years Spaniards, Mexicans, and Americans came to California from the south and the east seeking economic opportunity and social equality as well as sunshine and mild winters.

    After World War II, the GI Bill, affordable home mortgages, and visionaries built new housing tracts for returning veterans relocated from less comfortable climes and their fixed parochial cultures of the Midwest and the East Coast. Cynics made fun of the “ticky-tacky” tract homes depriving the “deplorable” souls who lived there of the pleasures of their own hearths and homes.

    Bipartisan visionaries also built highways, rapidly linking housing tracts to jobs.

    It took decades to halt the upwardly mobile from acquiring homes, cars, and jobs.

    Eventually, California went from an opportunity society—from blue collar—to white collar in one generation, and then to no collar. It went from widespread prosperity to poorest in the nation in supplies of housing and energy.

    Really, what needs to be fixed?

    Housing Shortage

    According to Hans Johnson of the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), California has a housing shortage of 3.5 million housing units. That’s for a population of 40 million.

    In September 2023, the Orange County Register reported that California’s largest cities, metropolitan areas, were short by over 800,000 units. This 6.5 percent housing shortage was twice the national average.

    With a median home value of $900,000 in 2024, California’s “young”—including 40-to-50-year-olds—cannot afford what few homes are available. And there was no respite in renting. The smallest apartments often cost more than the massive mortgages for which few could qualify.

    Legislation in 2023 to 2024, establishing Below Market Rate (BMR) housing, was rent control by other names.

    For decades, rent control and limits on evictions have discouraged private construction of apartments in California—so unions can do it at high expense, serving the millions who need housing that’s more affordable than an old car or Mommy’s bedroom.

    Homelessness

    Besides mental illness, disease, and drug addiction, the decades-long slow-motion moratorium on building housing has contributed at least in part to the violent deaths of the homeless, out in the open and vulnerable to human predators, as well as medieval diseases.

    Homelessness in California does not stop with drug addicts, the mentally ill, the diseased, and the poor. It ends up on your doorstep and/or your neighbors’.

    Welcome to the New Homeless Californians—children and grandchildren living in old cars, rundown trailer parks, sky-high concrete box apartments, Mommy’s spare bedroom, furnished garages, or backyard spaces under tiny roofs.

    Meanwhile, hotel rooms are offered to illegal immigrants. Our children and vets need not apply.

    Who Is Next?

    But for Proposition 13’s limits on annual increases on property taxes, grandparents might be joining their progeny on the sidelines of society. Nearly half of California’s homeless are over 50 years old.

    Though it’s difficult for older folks, those who can escape from California for the less comfortable climes of baking deserts or steamy states, are doing so. The vacancies left by escapees add little to solve shortages of affordable housing.

    Indeed, California’s relative population loss in the 2020 census dictated a first-ever loss in representation in the U.S. Congress.

    What can people do to continue living in family homes? The most affordable housing is located miles and hours away from jobs.

    Commute Marathons

    Thousands of Californians drive for hours from affordable homes in faraway suburbia, in San Bernardino-Riverside and the Central Valley, to urban jobs in Los Angeles and San Francisco-San Jose, respectively.

    They commute two or three hours a day from the Central Valley to the Bay Area; 80,000 drive over the Altamont Pass to and from San Joaquin County and the Bay Area. Seventy-five percent drive alone to jobs in San Jose, Fremont, or Pleasanton.

    Virtually none, 2.5 to 3 percent, take public transit, a bus, or a train.

    How Did This Happen?

    Local government building codes prevent families from building modest housing for their elderly parents or children on their own private property.

    Laws reduce private homeownership, highways, and cars—and instead substitute public transit and public housing. They limit suburban growth and the number of cars and highways getting people to and from home and work. This reduces the liberties and choices of citizens.

    So most housing shortages and long commutes are the direct result of public policies intended to eliminate “sprawling” suburbs with their “ticky-tacky” housing tracts. Low to no parking compels you to “choose” to give up your car too.

    Reducing Housing

    The high building fees, California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA), and other environmental policies have driven housing prices sky-high and caused housing supplies to be far short of what’s needed.

    Building fees reach $50,000 before a single shovel breaks ground on a single-family home.

    The net result of the environmental assault on affordable housing and highways is more greenhouse gas emissions from auto emissions—longer commutes and traffic congestion.

    Legislation in 2023 to 2024 exempted CEQA requirements but added others, producing up to 40 percent more expensive “prevailing [union] wage” constructed housing; in effect, public housing. Those over 50 units required union-sanctioned apprenticeship training and health care. Educational and religious institutions were mandated to provide social services—childcare and community centers for mere handfuls of tenants.

    Public Housing

    There is also the return of discredited public housing “projects,” high-rise Soviet and Beijing style.

    High-density housing promotes crime, social disorder, and disease. Life mimics rats in cages, filthy and frightened with lives that are cruel, nasty, and short.

    San Diego’s 50-story residential tower will likely lack thug-free elevators.

    In June 2024, Senate Bill 469, which would have permitted public housing projects without voter approval, was dropped.

    Bad Roads

    California’s potholes compete with those of Bangladesh and New York’s West Side Highway. Bad roads destroy evil automobiles.

    From 1990 to 2019, the State of California in Proposition 111, SB-1, and Proposition 69 heavily taxed gasoline, cars, and trucks, promising to build and repair long lists of roads and bridges in return.

    In 2018, Proposition 6 sought to rescind the latest gas tax theft. An opposition political campaign said that unsafe bridges would go unrepaired and kill people if the taxes were repealed. Taxpayers supported keeping high gas taxes to build desperately needed roads and bridges.

    Jon Coupal of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association said it was all a smoke screen written in disappearing ink.

    California has the nation’s highest “gas pump” gasoline taxes per gallon, e.g., “cap and trade” tax on top of gasoline tax per gallon.

    In October 2019, gasoline was a full dollar per gallon above the national average. By 2024, the difference approached two dollars per gallon.

    Similarly, drivers pay ever-increasing bridge tolls, decades after the Bay Bridge and Golden Gate Bridge bonds were paid off in 1971.

    Highway users pay for the benefits they were promised—a fair tax, an honest tax. They have paid high taxes for worse than nothing.

    Though long planned and promised, very few roads and bridges are built. State Senator and accountant John Moorlach said that California diverted 80 percent of bonds to other purposes over three decades.

    Grand Theft Auto

    Gas taxes and highway bonds to build “freeways” and bridges are stolen to subsidize public transit no one rides very far—empty trains, light rail, Amtrak, and buses.

    High taxes on gasoline, coupled with bad roads and stolen revenue, are grand theft auto. By 2018, only optimists would say California had the ninth worst highways.

    The offered alternative was worse.

    California pays registered owners to get “clunker” cars—affordable transportation—off its roads and get onto public transit.

    Public Transit

    Since 1965, Los Angeles has been seeking mass rapid public transit. In 2024, public transit is routinely claimed to reduce congestion, though it carries only 3 percent or so of all passenger traffic in California.

    Command and control of autos does nothing about traffic congestion. However, it does drive citizens out of their cars into cattle cars rife with crime.

    The push for higher-density housing seeks to sustain public transit, which 80 to 95 percent of urbanites avoid if they can. Converting entire residential neighborhoods into multi-family lots would destroy proud old neighborhoods of family and friends.

    Private cabs and Ubers competing with public transit are overregulated.

    Reducing Vehicle Miles Traveled

    Policies have aimed to reduce vehicle miles traveled (VMT) as a means of saving planet earth from climate change (whether cold or hot).

    Policy progress is measured by cars not owned and commuter vehicle miles not traveled.

    Making suburban housing unaffordable and unreachable is helpful in reducing miles traveled. Do not build the houses and highways, and they will not come and go.

    Boutique Gasoline

    California insists on having its own seasonal blends of gasoline.

    The replacement blends contain ethanol made from corn, and they faithfully continue to reduce VMT per gallon. More gallons must be burned to equal the mileage of ordinary gasoline.

    Killing Competition Drives Gasoline Prices Higher

    Boutique gasoline drove 10 older oil refineries out of business from 1985 to 1995. In 1982, the state had 30 gasoline-producing refineries. There were 11 to 14 by various counts in 2015 to 2023.

    Due to efforts to eliminate leaking gasoline tanks, California regulated big oil and little oil gasoline stations. Independent station owners could not afford the years of delay and millions of dollars to replace older tanks. Facing bankruptcy, small businesses quit.

    Driven out of business, independents became only 15 percent of 10,000 California stations.

    By 2024, no California Energy Commission statistics on independent gasoline stations could be found on its website. They were well hidden or disappeared from history.

    While heavy metals and solvent-borne petroleum oils smell bad, there is little evidence that their concentration in water is a health risk when they are measured in parts per billion and trillion.

    The independent gasoline stations once competed on gasoline prices with Big Oil. Gasoline was 25 cents a gallon in 1960. With independents still in business, gasoline might have been about $2.15 in 2019.

    As for housing, the answer is supply. That requires free market competition—deregulation.

    And a last hope, other than escaping California in an expensive U-Haul trailer, is a voter revolt like those that have occurred in parental rights and school choice and the one that is impending in recriminalization of crime in our stores and on our streets.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/11/2024 – 17:40

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Jun 11

Today’s News 11th June 2024

  • Germany Has Begun Dumping Migrants In Poland
    Germany Has Begun Dumping Migrants In Poland

    By Grzegorz Adamczyk of RMX.news

    Aleksandra Fedorska who works for independent radio WNET and news outlet Biznes Alert has reported that migrants are being handed over to Polish border guards by German officers and are then transferred to hostels in bordering areas.

    According to her, many of the migrants have told staff that they arrived in Germany from the Netherlands, Austria and other countries, rather than via Poland. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The Polish journalist asked German federal police for data on illegal migrants on the border with Poland. According to the data produced, Germany has sent back 3,500 migrants out of the 5,600 people who are alleged to have crossed from Poland into Germany illegally.

    “From Jan. 1 to April 30, 2024, the federal police registered a total of 5,621 people who illegally crossed the Polish-German border. Of these, 3,578 people were returned to Poland,” wrote Fedorska on her account on X.

    The EU migration pact, which will come into force in 2026, makes a provision for member states to choose whether to receive relocated illegal migrants or pay €20,000 for every migrant they refuse. 

    Migration is a key issue for voters in three German eastern states this autumn. Germany makes no secret of its hope that the migration pact will enable it to reduce the number of migrants on its territory. 

    Continue reading at RMX.news

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/11/2024 – 02:00

  • Past Informs The Present
    Past Informs The Present

    Authored by Howell Keiser via RealClearHistory,

    The work of the eighteenth-century English economist Thomas Malthus has been famously used to defend the indefensible. Malthus’s warning of the dangers of overpopulation, labor redundancy, and environmental degradation in urban-industrial societies have served as the basis for programs ever since that are aimed at curtailing political liberty.

    Today, World Economic Forum (WEF) founder Klaus Schwab has addressed the problems of industrialization and population redundancy in highly Malthusian ways. With the advent of artificial intelligence and other new technologies, Schwab has stated that employees are bound to “face redundancy unless they can migrate to a new position with an organization.”

    Yuval Noah Harari, a key WEF advisor, likewise agrees that technological advancements have created an atmosphere where a sizable decrease in the world’s population will happen in the next decades. Harari has noted that “these technologies will increasingly make redundant and will make it possible to replace the people.” Replaced people, he adds, will become “useless eaters,” straining both subsistence and the global footprint.

    Antebellum political economists at major Southern universities instructed students – future southern leaders – in these Malthusian ideas in a completely different context than our own. Like Schwab, Harari, and the WEF, leading Southern intellectuals at that time fostered an intense commitment to an anti-democratic philosophy invested in the regulation of human populations, movement, political independence, and economic freedom.

    According to the historian Eugene Genovese, slaveholders embraced Malthusianism, because they “viewed with foreboding the laws of diminishing returns in agriculture … and of the tendency of population geometrically to outstrip subsistence.” Southern apologists concluded, Genovese writes, that in an industrialized free labor society “‘the masses of mankind’ are inescapably ground up if they did not rise with fearful violence to destroy the social classes that imposed misery upon them.” It was for this reason that slave apologist Daniel Hundley believed Malthus’s writings to be a “great science” for shaping society.

    William and Mary President Thomas R. Dew, a notable apologist for slavery, also made these arguments prominent in his defense of the “peculiar institution.” Dew postulated that if Southern society gave way to Northern industrialization, “the powerfully elastic spring of our rapidly increasing numbers … shall be crowded into our manufactories and commercial cities – then will come the great and fearful pressure upon the engine.” Whereas Northern industrialism hastened a degraded “rural landscape,” giving way “to factories, tenants, and large cities,” Dew contended that slaveholders believed their agricultural society achieved a perfect balance between populations and resources.

    Like antebellum Southerners who, according to historian David Silkenat, used the fear of “environmental destruction” to elevate their low population agrarian philosophy, environmentalists today see the “impact of population” and industrialization as combining to “deplete natural resources and degrade the environment.” Population and industrial growth, therefore, must be controlled.

    But how can this be achieved? Vice President Kamala Harris stated that “when we invest in clean energy, and electric vehicles, and reduce population, more of our children can breathe clean air and drink clean water.” Of course, Harris leaves the best means of implementing depopulation and regulating economic freedom unanswered.

    Ultimately, the perspective put forward by Vice President Harris is not entirely different in principle from some of the solutions offered by leading slaveholders. They endeavored to limit urban industrialization, mocked urban boosters as un-Southern, and posited that the best way to regulate populations was through eugenics – “manipulate the sex ratio.”

    The issue with Malthusianism, both past and present, is obvious. How could population and industrial reduction occur if not by curtailing private industry, economic freedom, and an individual’s reproductive autonomy? If accepted wholesale, our nation’s tradition of political liberty would be shoved aside for a program based on a very different set of principles.

    Antebellum Southern history teaches us that this ideology gives rise to anti-democratic philosophies opposed to bodily freedom, economic liberty, and political independence. The language of collapse inherent in this ideology serves as a powerful tool in undermining the power of individuals to enjoy life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness on their own terms. It is therefore useful to see the Malthusianism of the pre-Civil War South as a warning. After all, the past often informs the present.

    Howell Keiser is a Post-Doctoral Research Associate at the University of Virginia and is a fellow with the Jack Miller Center.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/10/2024 – 23:45

  • 'Just The Tip?'
    ‘Just The Tip?’

    The term “guilt tipping” is making the rounds in light of a rising trend in tipping culture.

    As Statista’s Anna Fleck reports, according to a survey of six countries by Statista Consumer Insights in 2021, this feeling of resistance to the expectation that consumers need to tip was highest in Sweden. There, more than four in ten people said that tipping should not be expected.

    Infographic: Where’s the Tipping Point? | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    In the United Kingdom, the share of people who thought that tipping shouldn’t be a certainty was similarly high, at 41 percent.

    Meanwhile, this figure dropped for those in the United States and Italy, with 22 percent and 18 percent, respectively.

    “Tip fatigue”, as it’s now known, appears to be growing.

    According to a recent report by CNBC, nearly three quarters of U.S. adults now think tipping has gotten out of control.

    The following chart, also based on Pew’s findings, shows when Americans typically tip and when they don’t, providing a little bit of guidance for those struggling to keep up with modern tipping culture.

    Infographic: 'Tip Creep' vs. 'Tip Fatigue': Americans' Tipping Habits | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    This shift is at least partly being attributed to the multiple effects of inflation, shrinkflation and tipflation.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/10/2024 – 23:25

  • Supreme Court To Hear Case About Facebook Data-Harvesting Incident
    Supreme Court To Hear Case About Facebook Data-Harvesting Incident

    Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The Supreme Court on June 10 agreed to look at a large shareholder lawsuit that claims Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc. deceived investors regarding a data-harvesting controversy that involved Cambridge Analytica, a political consulting firm.

    The U.S. Supreme Court in Washington on May 29, 2024. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times)

    The Supreme Court’s eventual ruling in the case could have an impact on corporate disclosure standards going forward.

    The case involves a private securities fraud-related class action arising out of the now-defunct UK-based Cambridge Analytica’s “wrongful acquisition and misuse of Facebook user data,” according to Facebook’s filing with the nation’s highest court.

    Meta agreed in December 2022 to pay out $725 million to settle a class-action proceeding that said the company permitted third parties, including Cambridge Analytica, to gain access to as many as 87 million users’ personal information. The incident was made public in 2018.

    Cambridge Analytica previously worked for then-candidate Donald Trump’s successful presidential campaign in 2016, and had access to personal data from millions of Facebook accounts for purposes of targeting and profiling voters. The account holders did not consent and had their data harvested by means of an app.

    The scandal led to government investigations and Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg was called to testify before Congress.

    In 2019, Facebook agreed to pay $5 billion to resolve a U.S. Federal Trade Commission probe into its privacy practices and $100 million to settle a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission proceeding that alleged it misled investors about the misuse of their data.

    At the same time, Meta is being investigated by the European Union for possible breaches of child safety rules on its Facebook and Instagram platforms.

    The Supreme Court granted the petition for certiorari, or review, in Facebook Inc. v. Amalgamated Bank, in an unsigned order.

    No justices dissented and the court didn’t explain its decision. At least four of the nine justices must vote to grant the petition for it to advance to the oral argument stage.

    The Supreme Court will examine whether a federal appeals court erred in allowing the multi-billion dollar lawsuit to proceed premised on allegations that Facebook, as the company was known at the time, inflated share prices by failing to provide adequate disclosure that its user data would be misused.

    The investors claim that the controversy contributed to two 2018 price drops that led to the company losing more than $200 billion in market capitalization.

    The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit ruled against Facebook in the case at hand in October 2023.

    Facebook is asking the Supreme Court to dismiss the lawsuit.

    The federal district court threw out the plaintiffs’ claims three times but the 9th Circuit revived the claims, which Facebook said in its petition “adopted extreme outlier positions.”

    “The Ninth Circuit’s decision will light a beacon for class-action lawsuits that would be dismissed in any other circuit,” the petition stated.

    The respondent, Amalgamated Bank, argued the circuit court decision was correct and the Supreme Court should reject the appeal.

    “There is no circuit conflict,” the bank said in a brief.

    The 9th Circuit “applies the same rule as the other circuits Facebook cites: a statement is misleading if it treats a material risk as hypothetical when the risk has already materialized.”

    The Supreme Court is expected to hear Facebook Inc. v. Amalgamated Bank in its new term that begins in October.

    Meanwhile, the Supreme Court justices are currently deliberating two cases that deal with social media platforms.

    Supreme Court justices seemed skeptical of state arguments on March 18 that the federal government was wrong to communicate with social media platforms about public health issues during the recent pandemic.

    At the same time, during oral argument in Murthy v. Missouri, the states argued that the federal government strong-armed social media companies into censoring disfavored views on important public issues such as side effects related to the COVID-19 vaccine and the government-imposed lockdowns. Applying this kind of pressure violates the First Amendment, the states argued.

    Dr. Vivek Murthy is the U.S. surgeon general. The state of Missouri and other parties sued the federal government for alleged censorship by pressuring social media companies to suppress certain content.

    On Feb. 26, Florida and Texas told the Supreme Court they should be allowed to regulate how social media platforms moderate content. During oral arguments, the justices seemed to be grasping for a new rule they could use to apply free speech principles to online discussions.

    At stake is the right of individual Americans to freely express themselves online along with the right of social media platforms to make editorial decisions about the content they host. Both rights are protected by the First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.

    The challenge to the Florida statute regulating social media is Moody v. NetChoice LLC; the challenge to the Texas law is NetChoice LLC v. Paxton.

    Both states’ laws impose restrictions on deplatforming users and force platforms to explain their content moderation decisions, a mandate the platforms consider to be overly burdensome.

    The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit struck down part of the Florida statute, finding that “with minor exceptions, the government can’t tell a private person or entity what to say or how to say it.”

    Even the “biggest” platforms are “private actors whose rights the First Amendment protects … [and] their so-called content-moderation decisions constitute protected exercises of editorial judgment.”

    The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit took the opposite tack, finding the Texas constitutional and rejecting the “idea that corporations have a freewheeling First Amendment right to censor what people say.”

    Rulings in these two cases are expected by the end of June.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/10/2024 – 23:05

  • $82,000 Gold Nugget Stolen From Long Beach Coin Show
    $82,000 Gold Nugget Stolen From Long Beach Coin Show

    We guess gold demand really is picking up…

    In Long Beach this past week, a monster-sized gold nugget that is worth $82,000 was stolen from a coin expo and now, ironically, $10,000 is being offered as a reward for its safe return, according to Fox 11 Los Angeles. 

    Bob Campbell, a Utah-based coin dealer and owner of the gold nugget, reported a theft at his booth, captured by security cameras. The video revealed a man exploiting a flaw in the display case to steal the nugget, which weighs about 27 ounces.

    “He’s trying locks, looks to see who’s watching,” Campell told Fox watching the video. 

    Approximately 30 seconds after tampering with the case, the thief concealed the nugget, casually checked his surroundings, and left the scene.

    Campbell said this incident marks his most significant loss at a coin show, emphasizing not just the monetary worth of the gold, but its historical value as well.

    The nugget, unearthed during the California Gold Rush near the Oregon border, is a rare survivor from a time when most such finds were melted down.

    With the nugget’s unique history at risk of being lost if melted down, Campbell is hopeful that public recognition of the thief from the footage will lead to the recovery of the artifact.

    He concluded, lamenting: “The bigger the nugget, the more they’re worth. It’s not uncommon to see them go for two, three, even four times the gold value.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/10/2024 – 22:45

  • After Texas Win, School-Choice Groups Eye Other Red States
    After Texas Win, School-Choice Groups Eye Other Red States

    Authored by Susan Crabtree via RealClearPolitics,

    The political ground shifted in Texas last week, and the impact of the electoral shakeup could send aftershocks across the nation for months, if not years, to come.

    A wave of Republican incumbents fell to conservative challengers in the Texas House in last week’s primary run-offs, turning an already red legislature crimson and threatening the state House GOP leader’s hold on power. Those who helped lead the intra-party Texas fight now have their sights set on defeating centrist Republicans in other red states, including Tennessee, Georgia, Idaho, and South Carolina.

    A concerted joint effort by Gov. Greg Abbott, outside groups, and a deep-pocketed donor flipped the seats of 14 Republicans who had opposed Abbott’s school-choice measure – a state record.

    Abbott’s effort to pass school choice died last fall when 21 House Republicans – mostly from rural districts – voted to strip a voucher program out of a larger education bill. Of those 21 voucher opponents, 15 now aren’t returning. The coalition defeated six GOP incumbents in March, then three more in last week’s run-offs. Additionally, the group filled four of the five retiring Republican seats with voucher supporters, and then a voucher backer won a special election run-off.  

    The leading factor in these Republicans’ historic defeats hasn’t been making the most national headlines or even the most local news. It’s unrelated to Abbott’s border fight with President Biden, state Attorney General Ken Paxton’s resentment over efforts to impeach him, or even widespread local protests over the state’s skyrocketing property taxes.  

    Those issues all played out in the election, but school choice was far and away the most lethal campaign issue across the Lone Star state. Its impact was especially potent considering the totality of political spending and blitz of advertisements focused on school vouchers and related issues dominating the Texas airwaves and inundating inboxes.

    Abbott was determined to make good on his threats to boot anti-school voucher Republicans who have blocked his ambitious crusade to give parents taxpayer-funded options to educate their children outside public schools. After several challengers he backed won their run-offs last week, the governor declared victory and announced that the House “now has enough votes to pass school choice.”

    “While we did not win every race we fought in, the overall message from this year’s primaries is clear: Texans want school choice,” said Abbott. “Opponents can no longer ignore the will of the people.”

    House Speaker David Phelan, who supported the effort to scrap the school voucher language from the bill last fall, managed to eke out a run-off win by less than 400 votes. But that razor-thin victory likely dooms his chances of holding onto his leadership post next year.

    On the national level, Abbott is best known for his immigration showdown with President Biden, which included the deployment of thousands of Texas Guard members to shut down the border and the decision to send busloads of illegal immigrants from the southern border to places like New York, Washington, D.C., and Texas.

    Texans, however, are well aware that Abbott has made school vouchers his top priority, pouring more political capital into the vouchers than any other issue in his eight years in office. The sometimes-cautious governor campaigned for reelection on the issue in 2022 and made universal education saving accounts a central theme of his most recent State of the State addresses. The ESAs would use taxpayer funds to provide parents a voucher worth $10,500 a year per student to use at a private school.

    Texas teacher unions have staunchly and successfully opposed school-choice bills for years. They say the programs deprive public schools of essential funds and mainly benefit wealthy families who are already sending their children to private schools.

    The Texas chapter of the American Federation of Teachers called the school-choice movement a “scam” which eliminates transparency and public accountability.

    “When vouchers strip more money away from our already strapped neighborhood schools, the only people who will benefit are the richest parents, who are already sending their children to private schools. For everyone else, vouchers will crowd classrooms and put every member of the school community who keep the hubs of our communities running on the chopping block. And it’s the hardest hit, and often more rural communities, that get left further and further behind,” the Texas AFT wrote in a blog post.

    Abbott and his allies vigorously rejected those arguments, countering that most parents desperately want and need the funds to choose the best educational path for their children, especially while public school test scores in Texas and across the nation are continuing to fall. He then redoubled their efforts to pass his voucher plan.

    The Texas legislature cannot vote on any bill until 60 days into its legislative session unless the governor declares the measure an “emergency item.” Abbott gave the voucher issue this expedited status. He held two special sessions devoted to passing the initiative, including the one last fall in which opponents, including Phelan, stripped it from a bill providing $6 billion in additional funds to Texas public schools. Those funds would have boosted teacher pay and other public school funding – key negotiating chips that still failed to attract enough supporters.

    Heading into the fight, opponents were well aware that they could face consequences at the ballot box if they continued to oppose Abbott’s voucher language.

    In response to a ballot question in 2022, 88% of GOP primary voters indicated that they support parents’ “right to select schools, whether public or private, for their children, and the funding should follow the student.” Another poll conducted by the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs in January found that 66% of Republican primary voters said they would be less likely to vote for an incumbent who rejected school choice last year.

    “[Abbott] made it very clear during the special session that there’s an easy way and a hard way,” Dave Carney, the governor’s longtime political strategist, told RealClearPolitics. “The hard way was we’ll pass it in 2025 with a new legislature. They were informed, well-warned.”

    Carney said Abbott has done nearly 100 events on school choice so far this year, cutting television, cable, and digital ads and directing millions of digital impressions to targeted audiences. Abbott’s political action committee also paid for advocates to knock on 400,000 across the state.

    Still, Abbott had some powerful help, what Carney describes as a seamless, collaborative effort.

    “We’re not taking a victory lap yet, because we still have to get through the general election,” he added. “But we’re anticipating to pick up seats.”

    Last fall’s voucher defeat attracted national groups with deep pockets, including the American Federation for Children, a national pro-school choice group, and the Club for Growth, a conservative anti-tax group. Along with Abbott’s PAC, the groups spent a combined $27 million to back pro-voucher challengers against incumbents.

    A big portion of those funds came from Jeff Yass, a Pennsylvania billionaire and national Republican megadonor who strongly supports school vouchers. Worth nearly $30 billion, Yass is a co-founder and managing director of Susquehanna International Group, a Philadelphia-based trading and investment firm. The firm was an early investor in TikTok, which nearly doubled Yass’ net worth in the years since the pandemic when the app’s popularity soared.

    Working with Trump’s education secretary, Betsy DeVos, a longtime proponent of helping parents subsidize private school tuition, Yass has spent tens of millions boosting the issue, channeling $23 million to the DeVos-backed American Federation for Children’s political action committees since 2021.

    In December, Yass cut Abbott’s PAC a $6 million check, the largest single donation in Texas history. He’s also a multi-million dollar donor to the Club for Growth, which has long supported Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Rep. Chip Roy, who represents Austin and San Antonio.

    The Club for Growth, through its School Freedom Fund, spent roughly $4 million in the Texas primary and $4 million more in the run-offs, including $1.5 million against Phelan. David McIntosh, the group’s president, credited Abbott with the leadership to take on his fellow Republicans, who blocked school-choice options for Texas’ 5.4 million public school students.

    “I give Gov. Abbott a lot of kudos for his leadership,” McIntosh said in an interview. “Many Republican governors don’t want to take on sitting members of their own party and would not have done the same … that was a crucial factor in us being able to win.”

    Early in the effort, McIntosh told his team that big victories in Texas would build momentum for similarly aggressive campaigns in other red states, including Tennessee, Georgia, Louisiana, and Indiana.

    “Texas now shows that you can’t be a conservative Republican and oppose education freedom,” he said. “It’s now a marker for whether somebody is a genuine conservative or not. It’s going to be something the Club and our School Freedom Fund champion for years to come.”

    McIntosh says the school choice initiatives align with the group’s conservative economic agenda because giving parents more alternatives to public school creates market pressure in the education system.

    “That benefits the kids,” McIntosh said. “They get a better education, and it benefits the parents who have more control over the resources, and [it] takes the education bureaucracy out of the equation. Schools start operating like a business world, saying, ‘Who’s my customer?’ Right now, they don’t have that pressure.”

    The American Federation for Children’s Victory Fund, another key group in the school-choice fight, spent $7 million on the Texas primary and run-offs alone – boosting Texas challengers’ campaigns and helping establish school choice as a GOP litmus test.  

    “The primary election results in Texas – the Lone Star earthquake – represent the single biggest movement in favor of school choice in modern history, a result that will prove life-changing for countless Texas families,” Tommy Schultz, the group’s CEO, told RCP. “Republicans lost the moment they chose loyalty to unions and corrupt establishment over students.”

    Schultz said he and the coalition of school-choice proponents “anticipate that many other states will remember the Lone Star Earthquake ahead of their own primaries and legislative sessions.”

    “If you’re a candidate or lawmaker who opposes school choice and freedom in education – you’re a target,” he added. “If you’re a champion for parents – we’ll be your shield.”  

    Some Texas insiders are already making comparisons to Colorado’s rapid transformation from a Republican-dominated state in the mid-2000s to a Democratic one over a four-year time frame. For years, progressives have touted their success in Colorado in turning a red state blue, an effort by Democratic politicians and outside groups taking advantage of new campaign finance laws and working with donors willing to commit unprecedented resources to promote progressive policies and win local races.

    In a book titled, “The Blueprint: How Democrats Won Colorado,” the authors hailed the joint effort as a model for creating permanent Democratic majorities across the country.

    Texas was already a solid red state before the school choice fight, but now its legislature has shifted even further to the right, undermining years-long Democratic efforts to cast it as trending purple based on its growing Latino population. Instead, t he school-choice coalition’s Texas successes have sparked a conversation over whether they’ve developed a “redprint” model that can help solidify permanent conservative majorities across the country.

    Yet, Carney points out that Abbott isn’t the first governor to target GOP incumbents opposed to school vouchers. Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds started the trend in 2022 when the Iowa legislature tried to pass school choice but failed by one vote. It was an election year, and Reynolds and school choice advocates challenged six school anti-school choice incumbent lawmakers. They unseated all nine and passed the measure during the next legislative session.

    After the string of defeated GOP incumbents in Texas, other governors are already pledging a similar political litmus test. Late last week, Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee vowed to vet future GOP primary candidates in the next election cycle to determine whether they support school choice, although he didn’t commit to working to defeat Republicans who oppose school choice.

    “This year what I’m talking to candidates about is education freedom and choice for parents,” he told a local broadcast station late last week. “I want to know where new candidates stand on that issue because it’s so important to me, so you’ll see me talking to candidates.”

    Earlier this year, Lee said he expected a school choice “revolution” to take place in Tennessee, but those hopes were dashed in March when a school-choice bill died in the state legislature. But given strong GOP voter support for the issue, the state Republican Party is poised to adopt a strongly worded pro-school-choice platform over the next few months, which will ratchet up the pressure on Republican legislators with a history of opposing voucher programs.

    The Club for Growth and the American Federation for Children are monitoring Tennessee closely to see if Lee will follow in Reynolds’ and Abbott’s footsteps.

    “It’s a hard decision for governors to make, and you hope you can persuade people to do the right thing, and you don’t have to take out incumbents, but I will have to see what they decide to do,” McIntosh said.  

    Yet, the most effective advocate for school choice wasn’t Abbott, Reynolds, or any other GOP governor or outside group, Carney argues. That honor, he says, goes to American Federation of Teachers President Randi Weingarten, who fought children’s return to public school during the COVID pandemic and used the global health crisis to extract union concessions for teachers, sparking a parent revolution in the process.

    “Most families can’t afford to make that choice to give their kids a different option,” Carney remarked, decrying what he called the public education system’s “Praetorian Guard” who try to keep parents at bay while implementing “woke” programs and teaching methods while students’ test scores continue to plummet.

    Susan Crabtree is RealClearPolitics’ national political correspondent.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/10/2024 – 22:25

  • Watch: Mob Loots AutoZone In South LA During Chaotic Street Takeover 
    Watch: Mob Loots AutoZone In South LA During Chaotic Street Takeover 

    The latest chaotic example of California’s criminal and social justice reforms backfiring erupted in South Los Angeles early Monday morning, where a street takeover resulted in a mob of looters ransacking an AutoZone store. 

    Local media outlet KTLA reported that the Los Angeles Police Department received multiple calls of a street takeover at the intersection of Century Boulevard and Hoover Street around 0400 local time. Then, minutes later, a mob of 50 people looted a nearby AutoZone. Officials believe other stores in the area were hit as well. 

    “At least three businesses were hit within a four-mile radius and authorities were working to determine if the crimes were connected,” Fox 11 said.

    Elon Musk commented on the video with “!!.”

    The video is reminiscent of BLM looting scenes several years ago.

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    How long until socialist radical Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez comments on the incident, explaining how the looters were only stealing so they could fix their cars? 

    Several years ago, remember what AoC said during BLM riots, “They feel like they either need to shoplift some bread or go hungry.” 

    The lack of law and order in progressive cities has sparked a nationwide surge in crime and chaos over the years (though not according to the official data that AG Garland so proudly flaunts, but that’s another story).

    According to polls, law-abiding Americans are fed up with progressive policies that are increasingly transforming cities into scenes of the video game Grand Theft Auto.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/10/2024 – 22:05

  • No Better Friend Than Japan Despite Political Distractions
    No Better Friend Than Japan Despite Political Distractions

    Authored by Heino Klinck via RealClearDefense,

    Soon, President Biden will meet with seven of our most important allies and partners at the upcoming G7 summit in Italy, June 13-15. This meeting comes at a pivotal moment: wars in Ukraine and in the Middle East show little signs of stopping, China is becoming more aggressive in the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait and beyond, and the global economy is still suffering from slow growth and inflation. Having just returned from Europe, I encountered a palpable sense of anxiety about America’s current leadership in the world given the widespread failure of deterrence and continued economic malaise. During trying times like these, the United States needs to be seen as standing with like-minded allies to confront common challenges, not just as a leader, but also as an equal partner.

    Photo: U.S. Marines with 12th Marines, 3d Marine Division, and members of the Northern Army, Japan Self- Defense Force, participate in the opening ceremony for exercise Resolute Dragon 22 at Yausubetsu Maneuver Area, Hokkaido, Japan, Oct. 1, 2022. Resolute Dragon 22 is an annual bilateral exercise designed to strengthen the defensive capabilities of the U.S.-Japan Alliance by exercising integrated command and control, targeting, combined arms, and maneuver across multiple domains. (U.S. Marine Corps photo by Lance Cpl. Lorenzo Ducato)

    Japan, as the only Asian G7 member, will attend the G-7 summit in Italy’s Puglia region. In addition to the multilateral discussions, it can be expected that President Biden will have a bilateral meeting with Japan’s Prime Minister Kishida Fumio.

    This will not be the first time these two leaders have met this year. On April 10th, Prime Minister Kishida visited Washington for a rare state visit with President Biden, a testament to the continued significance of our alliance. The meeting concluded with the launch of a new Forum on Defense Industrial Cooperation, Acquisition, and Sustainment led by the Pentagon and Japan’s Ministry of Defense. Shortly after in May, this new initiative produced an agreement between the two governments to collaborate on the Glide Phase Interceptor Cooperative Development. This was an unmistakable sign of our collective resolve to pursue regional deterrence and missile defense together.

    Moreover, the Government of Japan (GoJ) has taken numerous steps recently to align its foreign and defense policies with the U.S., arguably more than any other country:  

    • Japan has committed to doubling its defense budget to 2% of its GDP, which equates to approximately $100 billion annually to bolster Self-Defense Forces and enhance its capabilities in line with U.S. strategic interests.
    • In response to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, Japan has imposed sanctions in coordination with the U.S. demonstrating its commitment to upholding international law and security. Since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Japan has committed nearly $12 billion in aid to Ukraine.
    • Japan’s Official Development Assistance (ODA) amounted to $21 billion in 2022, focusing on global health, climate change, and sustainable development, aligning with U.S. goals to promote global stability and development​.
    • Japan’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) strategy aligns with U.S. efforts to ensure regional stability and counter China’s influence, reflecting shared strategic objectives.

    General Mark Milley, the then Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, lauded this shift from GoJ, saying that “having a powerful Japan, a militarily capable Japan that has a close alliance with the United States and other countries, will go a long way to deterring war” with China. And in the context of China’s increasingly belligerent behaviors, like its recent military exercises meant to intimidate Taiwan, this should be a welcome relief for Washington who knows it cannot do everything on its own to deal with Beijing.

    Despite the unprecedented forward-leaning actions taken by the GoJ to align with the U.S., often at the expense of domestic opposition to increased defense spending, there are distractions that are impacting the alliance emanating from Washington, DC.

    During a recent campaign fundraiser, President Biden likened Japan to Russia and China for being “xenophobic,” a comment that Japan justifiably called “unfortunate.” On the heels of a state visit and during an era of Great Power Competition, one can only wonder how POTUS could compare Japan with the countries of a new arc of authoritarianism.

    Political posturing in the U.S. during an election year also distracts from our critical alliance. During a campaign event, the president opposed the proposed merger between Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel by saying that U.S. Steel must “remain an American steel company that is domestically owned and operated.” On the same day as Kishida’s arrival for the state visit, the Federal Trade Commission announced they opened an investigation into the proposed acquisition. All this while the Congress was debating the future of TikTok in the United States, an unfortunate while hopefully unintentional parallel.

    It is important for Washington to strike the proper balance of international relations and domestic politicking. While much has been accomplished with Japan, we cannot take the relationship for granted at a time when we need more help than ever to counter China. Distractions like the President’s rhetorical gaffes or politicizing commercial deals only serve our adversaries’ objectives.

    As Secretary Austin just said at the Shangri-La conclave, America’s “greatest global strategic advantage” is our alliances.  We should not put that at risk for domestic political gain.

    Heino Klinck was the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for East Asia, 2019-21.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/10/2024 – 21:45

  • UN Security Council Backs Biden's Gaza Ceasefire Plan, Russia Abstains
    UN Security Council Backs Biden’s Gaza Ceasefire Plan, Russia Abstains

    The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has finally agreed on something related to Gaza. On Monday it adopted a US-proposed resolution which gives formal backing to an Israel-Hamas ceasefire plan.

    Fourteen council members voted in favor, Russia abstained, and there were no votes against, allowing it to pass. The draft resolution welcomes the new ceasefire deal currently set before both sides, “which Israel accepted, calls upon Hamas to also accept it, and urges both parties to fully implement its terms without delay and without condition.”

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    Washington immediately began using the UNSC vote to add pressure on Hamas, at a moment Secretary of State Antony Blinken is touring the Middle East in an effort to get all parties to back the ceasefire plan. But crucially Hamas has faulted the Israeli side while holding firm to its longtime demand of a full IDF military withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.

    “We’re waiting on Hamas to agree to the ceasefire deal it claims to want,” US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield told the security council. “With every passing day, needless suffering continues.”

    The newly adopted UN resolution stipulates that “if the negotiations take longer than six weeks for phase one, the ceasefire will still continue as long as negotiations continue.”

    The US-backed plan which Biden has also controversially referred to as Israeli-proposed (despite the Netanyahu government having criticized it as “incomplete”), lays out three phases. The below outlines these proposed stages…

    First Stage

    This stage reportedly includes:

    • A temporary halt to military operations by both sides, with Israeli forces withdrawing to the border areas, including the Gaza Valley – Netzarim axis and Kuwait roundabout.
    • Daily suspension of aerial operations in Gaza for ten hours, extending to 12 hours on days of detainee exchanges.
    • Return of displaced persons to their homes, with a partial Israeli withdrawal from Al-Rashid Street to Salah Al-Din Street starting on the seventh day after Hamas releases seven female detainees.
    • Withdrawal from the Gaza Strip’s center (Netzarim axis and Kuwait Roundabout) by the 22nd day, positioning Israeli forces east of Salah al-Din Road along the border.
    • Humanitarian aid, including 600 trucks per day – including 50 fuel trucks and 300 trucks for the north – will be allowed in from day one, along with necessary supplies to operate essential services and clear rubble.
    • Indirect negotiations for the second phase will begin on the 16th day, focusing on the exchange of remaining Israeli prisoners in Gaza.

    Second Stage

    During this stage, the following actions will take place, according to the document:

    • Declare the restoration of sustainable calm, marking the permanent cessation of military and hostile operations, before the exchange of detainees and prisoners begins.
    • Release all remaining surviving Israeli male detainees, both civilians and soldiers, in exchange for a number of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons and detention centers.
    • Complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip.

    Third Stage

    During this stage, the following actions will take place, according to the document:

    • Exchange all body parts and remains of the deceased from both sides after identification.
    • Begin the Gaza Strip reconstruction plan, lasting 3 to 5 years, covering homes, civilian facilities, and infrastructure. This process will be supervised by countries and organizations, including Egypt, Qatar, and the United Nations.
    • Open border crossings to facilitate the movement of residents and transportation of goods.

    Meanwhile both warring sides have continued to blame the other for blocking finalization of a ceasefire deal. Hamas says Israeli leaders don’t actually want a truce, and Israeli says it is Hamas thwarting the possibility of peace.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/10/2024 – 21:25

  • A Nationwide Teacher Shortage Is Costing Schools $4 Billion Per Year
    A Nationwide Teacher Shortage Is Costing Schools $4 Billion Per Year

    Statewide teacher attendance in Nevada has fallen to the lowest in a decade, echoing a similar problem seen at school districts all over the United States, in places like New York and Connecticut to Chicago, Bloomberg wrote this past week.

    According to staffing firm Kelly Services Inc., teacher absenteeism has risen from 6% during the Covid pandemic to 10% currently, based on data from 40 states.

    The report says that this increase poses a significant economic challenge for school districts, especially as they attempt to recover from educational disruptions caused by lockdowns.

    Bloomberg estimates that if 8% of the 3.2 million full-time public school teachers are absent, it could cost districts approximately $25.6 million daily, totaling about $4.4 billion each school year. This financial strain is expected to worsen with the cessation of federal stimulus funding in September.

    Marguerite Roza, director of the Edunomics Lab at Georgetown University, commented: “We hear from financial leaders that they’re worried about it, the cost can be from $100 to $250 a day for a sub.”

    “If students who missed a year of learning are now missing 10% because of chronic absence, and another 10% because their teacher is chronically absent, they are never going to get back on track,” she continued. 

    Educational leaders are highlighting a troubling trend in teaching, attributing increased teacher absenteeism to challenging work conditions, behavioral issues among students, dwindling resources, and declining salaries amidst rising inflation.

    According to Bloomberg/Yahoo, fewer individuals are pursuing education degrees, leading to a smaller pool of potential teachers. Before the pandemic, teachers maintained a high attendance rate of 95%, typically missing nine out of 187 school days annually.

    However, recent federal data indicates that teacher absentee rates have escalated post-pandemic, with nearly three-quarters of public schools observing a rise during the 2021-22 school year.

    Nevada is one of few states monitoring teacher attendance, unlike most of the top ten largest states. Post-pandemic shifts in sick time usage have affected attendance rates, as seen in Clark County’s 76% rate for the 2022-23 school year.

    Significant teacher absences, such as those in Connecticut where teachers missed an average of 13 days, correlate with declining student performance and increasing achievement gaps.

    In New York City and Chicago, teacher absences have risen markedly, influencing educational outcomes and prompting responses like Illinois’ $45 million grant program to address teacher shortages through incentives and support programs. Despite these measures, challenges persist, exacerbated by low pay, high attrition, and a shrinking pool of teachers.

    This national issue is compounded by a lack of substitutes, adding strain on remaining staff and impacting the educational environment, now fraught with political tensions and heightened stress from behavioral issues.

    Danette Stokes, a teacher and president of the local union chapter, the United Education Association of Shelby County in Tennessee, concluded: “The day to day operations are tiresome. A lot of teachers don’t get the support they need when it comes to discipline, we have to do what is best for us.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/10/2024 – 21:25

  • USDA Recalls More Than 20,000 Pounds Of Frozen Beef Products
    USDA Recalls More Than 20,000 Pounds Of Frozen Beef Products

    Authored by Lorenz Duchamps via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    More than 20,000 pounds of beef products have been recalled because the meat was improperly inspected when shipped into the United States, according to U.S. regulators.

    South American Meat Inc. is recalling various frozen raw beef products because they were not presented to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service for import reinspection. (Courtesy of U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service)

    The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced in a news release on June 4 that California-based importer, South American Meat Inc., recalled approximately 20,111 pounds of various frozen raw beef products because the items were not presented for reinspection to the USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) upon entry from Uruguay.

    “The problem was discovered during routine FSIS surveillance activities of imported products, and FSIS determined that the products were not presented for FSIS import reinspection,” the agency stated.

    According to the USDA, the beef was imported from the South American country “on or around March 17” before it was shipped to distributors, restaurants, retailers, and institutions in Arizona, California, Oregon, and Washington.

    Neither the company nor the USDA has received any reports of anyone experiencing any adverse reactions from eating the products.

    However, FSIS expressed concern earlier this week that some of the products may already be in the freezers of consumers, distributors, restaurants, or retailers.

    “Any individual or entities who have purchased these products are urged not to consume or serve them. These products should be thrown away or returned to the place of purchase,” the agency said.

    Furthermore, FSIS advised that consumers should contact or visit their health care providers if they are worried about any adverse reactions from the product.

    The following products—all marked Frigorífico Casa Blanca S.A.—are affected by the recall:

    • Various weight cardboard cases labeled as “Frigorífico Casa Blanca S.A. AGUJA CHUCK ROLL” with case code JP0001 containing individually vacuum-sealed products displaying “FRICASA”;
    • Various weight cardboard cases labeled as “Frigorífico Casa Blanca S.A. ASADO SIN HUESO SHORT RIB” with case code JP0002 containing individually vacuum-sealed products displaying “FRICASA”;
    • Various weight cardboard cases labeled as “Frigorífico Casa Blanca S.A. BIFE ANCHO CUBE ROLL” with case code JP0003 containing individually vacuum-sealed products displaying “FRICASA”;
    • Various weight cardboard cases labeled as “Frigorífico Casa Blanca S.A. BIFE ANGOSTO STRIPLOIN” with case code JP0004 containing individually vacuum-sealed products displaying “FRICASA”;
    • Various weight cardboard cases labeled as “Frigorífico Casa Blanca S.A. BIFE GRANDE DE VACÍO FLAP MEAT” with case code JP0005 containing individually vacuum-sealed products displaying “FRICASA”;
    • Various weight cardboard cases labeled as “Frigorífico Casa Blanca S.A. CARNAZA DE PALETA SHOULDER CLOD” with case code JP0006 containing individually vacuum-sealed products displaying “FRICASA”;
    • Various weight cardboard cases labeled as “Frigorífico Casa Blanca S.A. LOMO TENDERLOIN” with case code JP0007 containing individually vacuum-sealed products displaying “FRICASA”;
    • Various weight cardboard cases labeled as “Frigorífico Casa Blanca S.A. MARUCHA OYSTER BLADE” with case code JP0008 containing individually vacuum-sealed products displaying “FRICASA”;
    • Various weight cardboard cases labeled as “Frigorífico Casa Blanca S.A. PECHO BRISKET” with case code JP0009 containing individually vacuum-sealed products displaying “FRICASA”.

    In addition, the items bear the Uruguay establishment number “58” on the shipping box and on the vacuum-sealed product packaging, according to the USDA.

    People with questions about the recall can call the USDA Meat and Poultry Hotline at 888-674-6854 or contact South American Meat Inc. accountant and logistics director Tim Yu at 310-720-5258.

    From NTD News

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/10/2024 – 21:05

  • Pro-Palestinian Protests Invade Wall Street
    Pro-Palestinian Protests Invade Wall Street

    Parts of Wall Street are currently under siege as hundreds of Pro Palestinian protesters flood the financial district of Lower Manhattan. The demonstrators are demanding an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. This comes after protesters surrounded the White House on Saturday. 

    “Hamas and Hezbollah flags in lower Manhattan. Believe people when they tell you who they are,” one X user said. 

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    A banner says “Long Live October 7th,” referring to the date that Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel. 

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    Who is Samidoun?

    We’ve covered Samidoun in detail and provided links to other organizations fueling chaos in the US: 

    Here are more scenes from the financial district. 

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    On Saturday, thousands of demonstrators surrounded the White House, demanding ‘genocide Joe‘ to hold the red line and end the Israel-Hamas war. 

    Given the rise in protests and Israel’s admission that the conflict might extend well into the second half of the year, we anticipate the continuation of demonstrations into the summer months. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/10/2024 – 20:45

  • The Tension Between The 'Centralized Manager Class' & Reality Is "Explosive"
    The Tension Between The ‘Centralized Manager Class’ & Reality Is “Explosive”

    Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

    If Wishes Were Fishes – a Teachable Intermezzo

    “Together we can finish the job.” 

    – “Joe Biden”

    This is the most significant reality of the world picture now: the wishes of the manager class are going in one direction while the actual dynamics of economy and politics go in the opposite direction. The managers wish for their management of systems to become as centralized and top-down as possible; but the very systems they manage are breaking down and seeking to reorganize at smaller scale, distributed locally. The tension entailed is explosive.

    Forgive me for reiterating a basic principle driving this moment in history: everything organized at the gigantic scale is steaming toward failure: big governments, giant companies, the huge capital investment firms, global shipping, energy production, chain retailing, mass motoring, big electricity, big medicine, big education, big anything. They are all fixing to fail while our politicians and economists make plans based on consolidating them into one super-gigantic mega-system that will run flawlessly on computer tech magic.

    The failures of each giant system will only amplify and ramify the failures in all the other systems.

    Take that as axiomatic.

    For instance, the fantastic failures in higher education now on display, largely due to the Marxian defeat of excellence, will implant a generation of incompetents in all hierarchies of management. That will result in an insidious matrix of bad decision-making. The Pareto 80-20 principle will ensure that 80-percent of all institutional energy will focus on propping up failing institutions with bad decisions that add up to broken business models (while 20-percent goes into actually carrying-out the bad decisions as policy). That explains how Pete Buttigieg’s Department of Transportation spent $7.5-billion to build seven electric car charging stations.

    Similarly, if you have an urgent medical problem, the 80-percent of administrative clerks in your primary care doctor’s overgrown practice (with an assist from the health insurance company cohorts they must coordinate with) will actually manage to delay your treatment as long as possible, with a fair chance of disallowing it altogether. And if you happen to get treatment, there’s also an excellent chance you will be misdiagnosed and subjected to iatrogenic injury.

    The 80-20 principle explains the stupendous mismanagement of the Covid-19 event, especially the “marketing” of mRNA vaccines as miracle remedies that turned out to be the opposite of beneficial. The result of that chain of bad decision-making will ensure that any widespread health crisis arising from the long-term effects of the Pfizer and Moderna Covid vaccines will destroy the hospital system. (It is already underway.) You can extrapolate that grandiose failure of competence to the World Health Organization and its efforts to orchestrate a new pandemic crisis.

    You might have noticed that it is increasingly difficult to get replacement parts for any machine, most particularly cars. That’s a symptom of failure in several integrated systems that are breaking down now: the manufacture of products in distant lands, price disorder in the container-ship business, the collapse of the US trucking system (and with it, the just-in-time inventory model), and the inability of auto dealers to find competent mechanics (while the sinking middle class can no longer afford to buy the cars they sell under the most liberal financing schemes). Expect all that to intensify.

    You’ll see similar dysfunction in the system that delivers food to the people of our country. Even as currently operating, with the supermarkets amply stocked, the triumph of poor decision-making has led to 80-percent of the products sold being some form of processed corn syrup and GMO grains marketed as “fun” snack-foods that have destroyed the health of a great many citizens (and overwhelmed the medical system with chronic illness).  The breakdown of the US food system is now proceeding with idiotic policy from our government (actually every government in Western Civ is doing it) undermining farm operations, and most especially small farms, with egregious regulation. The pretext for this is the delusional hysteria over “climate change.” It gives the managers something to manage badly.

    The large-scale farmers are also affected, of course, but their business model is already broken in other ways, mainly the gigantic cost of their “inputs” — fuel, fertilizer, herbicides and pesticides, and borrowed money to get the crop in. Political and economic management has arranged matters so that, in theory, the failed small farmers will be consolidated into the giant farms (which are also failing), but you can see how that’s going to work out. Before long, all farms will be unable to produce and, after a period of food shortage, perhaps famine, you will see the emergent reorganization of farming at the small scale minus the dead-weight of government regulation.

    The dead weight will be gone because government will have destroyed its own legitimacy by making so many bad decisions that led to ramified systems failure of the kind described above. Government will also be starved operationally by the failure of its funding system (taxation) as its economists and their managerial counterparts in finance destroy our money via their remorseless attempts to create fake capital by main force (Modern Monetary Theory).

    The upshot of all this is that actual dynamics in human affairs matter more than the grandiose wishes of mega-managers.

    They can wish for maximum control of everything all they want, but history is taking the world in another direction. Our broken systems for food, medicine, education, commerce will self-reorganize after a period of uncomfortable disorder, perhaps even epic disaster. I hope you see how this works.

    *  *  *

    Support his blog by visiting Jim’s Patreon Page or Substack

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/10/2024 – 20:25

  • Israel Releases Intense Bodycam Video Of Hostage Rescues In Gaza
    Israel Releases Intense Bodycam Video Of Hostage Rescues In Gaza

    On Monday Israeli forces released dramatic video of the moment a group of hostages were found and led to safety in the daring Saturday raid on a Hamas stronghold in central Gaza. The specific footage shows when three of the hostages were initially located by elite counter-terror commandos and positive identification was established.

    The Israeli Police and Israeli Security Agency published the bodycam footage which features first-person perspective of one of the soldiers moving fast through an urban area, breaching what looks like an apartment building, while laying down heavy machine gun fire. The footage was pre-edited before it was released, and later appeared in mainstream news outlets with blurs editing out some of the faces. Watch below:

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    The particular footage shows the intense rescue of hostages Almog Meir Jan, Andrey Kozlov, and Shlomi Ziv by forces of the elite Yamam unit and Shin Bet agents. Amid the heavy exchange of gunfire, which also took place in broad daylight, a Yamam officer later identified as Arnon Zmora was killed.

    Upon storming the building and making contact, the hostages are asked to identify themselves by name. They are all seen huddling in a small room on mattresses. After that, a soldier tells the hostages, “We’ve come to save you.”

    In the final scenes of the video, the elite forces lay down cover fire while the hostages escape on foot, which also underscores how risky a situation it was even upon exiting the building. They are seen sprinting through a garden courtyard.

    Israeli authorities issued the following statement upon release of the video: “Yamam and Shin Bet operatives worked simultaneously at two locations to rescue the four hostages, engaging in fierce combat with the terrorists.”

    “Attached is footage from helmet cameras capturing the moments of the rescue, where Yamam officers and Shin Bet (Israel Security Service) operatives storm the locations holding the hostages,” the statement continued. “The dramatic rescue amidst fighting and neutralization of the terrorists in the area is clearly visible.”

    Likely it was just as dangerous or more as the team maneuvered out of the situation, given the major firefight would have attracted more Hamas militants and onlookers.

    All of the now freed captives were initially kidnapped by Hamas from the Nova music festival on October 7 and they are: Noa Argamani, 25, Almong Meir Jan, 21, Andrey Kozlov, 27 and Shlomi Ziv, 40. Authorities have confirmed they are in good medical condition and they underwent evaluations at Tel Aviv’s largest hospital, and are now with their families.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/10/2024 – 20:05

  • Federal Court Revives Lawsuit Against Los Angeles COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate
    Federal Court Revives Lawsuit Against Los Angeles COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A federal appeals court has revived a lawsuit challenging the COVID-19 vaccine mandate imposed by the Los Angeles school district, noting that the record doesn’t clearly show whether the vaccines prevent transmission of the illness.

    A COVID-19 vaccine is administered to a person in Los Angeles on Jan. 29, 2022. (Shannon Stapleton/Reuters)

    The Health Freedom Defense Fund and other challengers to the mandate asserted that it violated the due process and equal protection rights of district employees, in part because the vaccines, unlike traditional vaccines, “are not effective” in preventing infection.

    U.S. District Judge Dale Fischer disagreed, throwing out the case in 2022. She ruled that even if the COVID-19 vaccines don’t prevent infection, mandates can be imposed under a 1905 U.S. Supreme Court ruling because the vaccines reduce symptoms and prevent severe disease and death.

    A panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit on June 7 reversed that ruling, finding that Judge Fischer extended the 1905 Jacobson v. Massachusetts ruling “beyond its public health rationale—government’s power to mandate prophylactic measures aimed at preventing the recipient from spreading disease to others—to also govern ‘forced medical treatment’ for the recipient’s benefit.”

    U.S. Circuit Judge Ryan Nelson, writing for the 2–1 majority, added, “At this stage, we must accept plaintiffs’ allegations that the vaccine does not prevent the spread of COVID-19 as true. And, because of this, Jacobson does not apply.” That position was reached after lawyers for the defendants provided facts about the vaccines that “do not contradict plaintiffs’ allegations.”

    Lawyers for the district had pointed out that a U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention publication describes the COVID-19 vaccines as “safe and effective” although the publication doesn’t detail effectiveness against transmission.

    The majority also concluded that the case isn’t moot even after the Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD) in 2023 rescinded the mandate. That move only came after the appeals court heard arguments in the case, and comments from district board members indicated the mandate could be reimposed in the future. In 2021, the district added an option for employees to be frequently tested for COVID-19 in lieu of a vaccine after being sued, only to remove the option after a different suit was thrown out.

    “LAUSD’s pattern of withdrawing and then reinstating its vaccination policies is enough to keep this case alive,” Judge Nelson said.

    He was joined by U.S. Circuit Judge Daniel Collins.

    The ruling remanded the case back to Judge Fischer “for further proceedings under the correct legal standard.”

    In a concurring opinion, Judge Collins said the allegations in the case implicate “the fundamental right to refuse medical treatment,” pointing to more recent Supreme Court rulings, including a 1997 decision in which the court stated that the “‘right of a competent individual to refuse medical treatment’ was ‘entirely consistent with this nation’s history and constitutional traditions,’ in light of ’the common-law rule that forced medication was a battery, and the long legal tradition protecting the decision to refuse unwanted medical treatment.’”

    In a dissent, U.S. Circuit Judge Michael Daly Hawkins said that the school district “has averred that, absent a very unlikely return to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, it will not reinstate the policy.”

    “Neither the speculative possibility of a future pandemic nor LAUSD’s power to adopt another vaccination policy save this case,” the judge said.

    Judges Nelson and Collins were appointed by President Donald Trump. Judge Hawkins is an appointee of President Bill Clinton. Judge Fischer is an appointee of President George W. Bush.

    Leslie Manookian, president of the Health Freedom Defense Fund, said in a statement that the Ninth Circuit’s ruling “made clear that American’s [sic] cherished rights to self-determination, including the sacred right of bodily autonomy in matters of health, are not negotiable.”

    LAUSD didn’t respond to a request for comment.

    *   *   * 

    In markets, Goldman’s Ariana Contessa wrote in a note to clients that Monday kicked off the bank’s 45th Annual GS Healthcare Conference in Miami.

    Contessa pointed out, “Largest takeaway was what was NOT said from VAX players re: the Ninth Circuit Ruling around vaccines, causing the group to underperform.”

    “Our desk was much better for sale in Biotech vs better to buy in large cap Pharma,” the analyst noted. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/10/2024 – 19:45

  • Here Are The 5 Supreme Court Issues Set To Reshape America's Political Landscape
    Here Are The 5 Supreme Court Issues Set To Reshape America’s Political Landscape

    As the Supreme Court gears up to conclude its decision season by the end of June, several high-stakes cases loom that could significantly alter the nation’s political and social fabric in a crucial election year.

    In less than three weeks, the high court is expected to decide matters involving abortion, social media, the 2nd Amendment and of course – Trump, The Hill reports.

    Trump’s Legal Battles Take Center Stage

    At the forefront is former President Donald Trump’s appeal regarding criminal immunity for official acts performed by former presidents. The outcome could affect ongoing charges against him in federal election interference cases in Georgia and Florida, potentially dismissing these charges or even halting the trials altogether. During oral arguments, the justices seemed open to granting some form of immunity to former presidents, which could lead to further delays in these high-profile cases.

    At oral arguments, the justices appeared inclined to carve out some immunity for former presidents, leaving for a lower court whether the specific allegations against Trump fall within that shield. 

    That narrow resolution could provide Trump with more pathways to delay his cases, as he hopes to retake the White House following November’s election and grind his remaining indictments to a halt.

    Meanwhile, one Jan. 6 rioter’s appeal could help Trump – as one of four charges the former president faces is obstruction of an official proceeding. When said rioter challenged the use of this provision, the Supreme Court seemed skeptical of the DOJ’s use of the charge.

    Social Media Rights Under Scrutiny

    The Court is also set to decide on the rights of social media platforms, with significant implications for free speech online. This includes cases from Texas and Florida, where laws have been enacted to prevent social media platforms from banning users based on political views, challenging the platforms’ First Amendment rights to editorial discretion. The justices showed mixed reactions during the February arguments, reflecting the complexity of balancing regulatory measures with free speech.

    The rights afforded to social media platforms are on the line in two cases stemming from controversial laws regulating social media bans in Texas and Florida. 

    The laws aim to prevent social media companies from banning users based on their political views — even if users violate platform policies. 

    Tech industry groups challenged the legislation as a violation of private companies’ First Amendment rights, arguing that the laws allowed the government to walk all over platforms’ editorial discretion. 

    The justices appeared conflicted over the laws during oral arguments in February. 

    A third case against the Biden administration threatens to upend how the federal government quells misinformation online in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and 2020 presidential election.

    The Fate of a Widely Used Abortion Pill

    Another critical decision involves the abortion pill mifepristone, with the justices evaluating changes made by the FDA that ease access to the medication. This ruling follows the conservative majority’s previous decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, and it could further impact abortion access across the United States, depending on whether the Court restricts the use of the pill, which is involved in over half of all abortions nationally.

    A group of anti-abortion doctors and medical associations challenged changes made by the FDA over the past decade easing access to the pill, including increasing the gestational age at which mifepristone can be used to up to 10 weeks of pregnancy and allowing the medication to be mailed. 

    The high-stakes case could impact abortion access in both red and blue states, with mifepristone being used in more than half of abortions nationwide. 

    During March oral arguments, a majority of justices appeared skeptical that the challengers were sufficiently harmed to have gained legal standing to bring their case.

    Gun Rights Reexamined

    The Court is addressing two major gun rights cases. The first involves the constitutionality of federal restrictions on gun possession for individuals under domestic-violence restraining orders. Initial hearings suggest the Court may uphold these restrictions. The second case examines the legality of Trump-era regulations on bump stocks, with the justices appearing divided during arguments.

    Potential Overhaul of Federal Agency Power

    Lastly, the justices are considering a challenge to the Chevron deference, a pivotal doctrine that has permitted federal agencies broad regulatory authority for decades. A decision to overturn this precedent could significantly rein in the power of the executive branch to enact regulatory changes across various sectors, including environmental protection and financial regulations.

    Each of these decisions not only holds profound implications for the individuals and policies directly involved but also for the broader trajectory of American political and social life, signaling a potentially transformative period in U.S. jurisprudence.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/10/2024 – 19:25

  • What Would Josey Wales Do?
    What Would Josey Wales Do?

    Via the Burning Platform,

    “To hell with them fellas. Buzzards gotta eat, same as worms.” – Josey Wales

    As our political, economic, civic, and social structures continue to degrade, dissolve, and disintegrate before our very eyes, it is easy to become apathetic and surrender to hopelessness. There are relentless powerful forces actively trying to destroy the fabric of our society and force the masses into economic servitude while caged in an electronic gulag, controlled by an oligarchy of evil totalitarian minded billionaires and their lackeys in key governmental, political, banking, military, media, and corporate positions of power. We are in the same situation as Josey Wales in Clint Eastwood’s epic 1976 film – The Outlaw Josey Wales.

    The film tells the story of Josey Wales, a Missouri farmer, just trying to live his life in peace without interference from the government, uninterested in the violent Civil War between two monolithic forces fighting for their created causes.  His wife and son are brutally murdered by Union Redleg militants, led by the despicable  Captain Terrill, while he was away from his homestead. After burying his family, his mind naturally turns towards seeking revenge against the perpetrators, and he begins to practice shooting. He joins a group of pro-Confederate bushwackers who become the scourge of Union forces until the war’s conclusion.

    At the conclusion of the war, Josey’s friend and superior, Captain Fletcher, persuades the guerrillas to surrender, having been promised by Senator Lane that they will be granted amnesty if they hand over their weapons. Josey refuses to surrender because he knows you can never trust the government or the politicians who make promises they never keep. They have been pissing down our backs since the last Civil War, while telling us it’s just raining, so everyone can relate to this scene in the movie.

    Senator: The war’s over. Our side won the war. Now we must busy ourselves winning the peace. And Fletcher, there’s an old saying: To the victors belong the spoils.
    Fletcher: There’s another old saying, Senator: Don’t piss down my back and tell me it’s raining.

    Wales having refused to surrender, along with a young guerrilla named Jamie, are the only survivors when Terrill’s Redlegs massacre the surrendering men. Wales intervenes and wipes out many of the Redlegs with a Gatling gun before fleeing with Jamie, who dies from a bullet wound sustained in the massacre after helping Josey kill two pursuing bounty hunters.

    Fletcher learns the lesson that you can never trust the government, or the lackeys carrying out their mandates. They will lie and murder to accomplish their goals. Anyone who does not bow to their authority will be treated as an outlaw, with no acquiescence to the Constitution, decency, or simple human dignity.  Once decent men are pushed too far, they will push back in a more violent manner than the authorities will expect. Violence begets violence, and will create more Josey Wales type characters who will not surrender or ever bow down to governmental authority.

    Fletcher: Damn you, Senator. You promised me those men would be decently treated.
    Senator Lane: They were decently treated. They were decently fed and then they were decently shot. Those men are common outlaws, nothing more.

    The remainder of the movie entails Union soldiers and bounty hunters trying to track and  kill Josey, while he accumulates a rag-tag group of companions, including Indians,  foul mouthed grannies, and a slew of other settlers trying to live their lives unhindered by the government. Clint Eastwood’s character maintains a stoic meanness throughout the film towards his government enabled enemies, but has empathy and kindheartedness towards the downtrodden people who represent the vast majority of citizens in this country.

    I found it interesting  the film was based on the novel Gone to Texas, written with a virulent anti-government slant by a former George Wallace speechwriter. When the script writer/director tried to tone down the anti-government aspects, Eastwood told him no and eventually fired him, taking over as director for the remainder of the film. Eastwood’s refusal to bow to Hollywood pressure and soften the dialogue and story line is a tribute to his resolute dislike and mistrust of governmental authorities. He has essentially gone his own way and made his films his way, never letting the Hollywood elite dictate his path.

    Released in 1976 when anti-war sentiment was at its peak, following the government created Vietnam war debacle, which slaughtered over 50,000 American boys, Eastwood later referred to it as an anti-war film. And we all know it is governments and those Deep State operatives who control the levers of power, and start wars to increase their wealth, power and control. War never ends because it is extremely profitable for those waging it, while the youth doing the fighting are just cannon fodder for corporate interests. Eastwood was dead on, as we have waged wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, and now Ukraine and Palestine, benefiting the military industrial complex at the expense of you and me.

    “As for Josey Wales, I saw the parallels to the modern day at that time. Everybody gets tired of it, but it never ends. A war is a horrible thing.” – Clint Eastwood

    Eastwood equates the plight of the Confederacy with the plight of the American Indian, as both groups were bullied, bloodied and crushed under the weight of the Federal government, which began its unfettered growth during the Civil War and has now reached its zenith of incompetence, arrogance, lawlessness, and hatred towards the citizens it is supposed to serve. Most people just want to be left alone, like Josey Wales, to live their lives in peace and harmony with their fellow community members. But the federal government makes that impossible, with their rules, regulations, taxes, fees, and enforcement thugs harassing the public on a daily basis.

    In Eastwood’s movie they murder his family, murder his comrades, and are hell-bent on murdering him. The song remains the same. Our government murdered people minding their own business at Ruby Ridge. They murdered women and children at Waco. They murdered a rancher at Bundy Ranch. They send young men to war for bankers and corporations. They have been unlawfully imprisoning protestors in dungeons for a fake insurrection fomented and initiated by government agents. They rigged the presidential election and have convicted the leading political candidate of fake crimes he did not commit in order to maintain control over the political system.

    The list could go on for pages, as the totalitarian methods and abuse of power against the citizens of this country accelerate at a breakneck pace. Fear of seeing their wealth and power slip away has created an almost psychotic spasm of unhindered chaotic flailing about, in an ultimately fruitless effort to retain control. They are fearful of the masses wakening from their technology induced slumber and realizing the enemy is not the groups they have been programmed to hate, but the very government pulling the strings of this clownshow.

    The government needs a sedated, dumbed down populace who fear what they are told to fear and obey the instructions of their overlords. But the covid scamdemic and continuing death of loved ones from the toxic jabs, has opened the eyes of millions. The debt death spiral induced by Biden’s handlers, supercharged by the coordinated and financed invasion of our southern border by third world mutts, and resulting in raging inflation for average American families, has angered and infuriated the masses. We are approaching our moment of truth.

    The government is in the midst of creating millions of vengeful Josey Wales characters. As political chaos increases in the coming months, the threat of global conflagration escalates and the economic plight of the masses deteriorates, revenge against politicians, government drones, and the globalist financial elite for creating this madness will expand rapidly. We know what Josey Wales would do. The question is what will we do.

    Eastwood made his final Western masterpiece, sixteen years after Josey Wales, with the release of the Academy Award winning Unforgiven. He paid tribute to Josey Wales in the climactic scene in the saloon when confronting Little Bill. In The Outlaw Josey Wales Grandma Sarah’s initial reaction to meeting Josey Wales was:

    “This Mr. Wales is a cold-blooded killer. He’s from Missouri, where they’re all known to be killers of innocent men, women and children.”

    He closes the loop with Will Munny, out of Missouri, with the same false accusation that he killed women and children, as he also seeks retribution on government authoritarians who murdered an innocent man. Both Josey Wales and Will Munny tried to live out their lives as peaceful farmers, but were forced to revert to violence because the government would not allow them to live in peace.

    Little Bill Daggett : “You’d be William Munny out of Missouri. Killer of women and children.”

    Will Munny : “That’s right. I’ve killed women and children. I’ve killed just about everything that walks or crawled at one time or another. And I’m here to kill you, Little Bill, for what you did to Ned.”

    Eastwood’s first and last epic Westerns both examined the harsh reality of violence and retribution as the logical consequence for crimes committed against innocent people just trying to lives their lives. His meditations on the concepts of age, repute, courage, and the cloudy definition of heroism, make for far deeper and complex examinations of the old West than other western films. Eastwood distinguishes between the brutal reality of a world controlled and run by tyrannical psychopaths acting as government agents, and people living peacefully, with no government intervention.

    Eastwood’s ideal vision of America as a pluralist society of individualists of all races and backgrounds who put aside the past and their difference to live in harmony, contrasts with the reality of a society controlled and manipulated by those referred to as the “invisible government” by Edward Bernays. The ruling elite do not want people to live peaceably in a self reliant manner. The climactic scene in Outlaw Josey Wales between Josey Wales and Ten Bears captures the nature of our world and the difference between governments and the people.

    Josie Wales : “I came here to die with you. Or to live with you. Dying ain’t so hard for men like you and me. It’s living that’s hard when all you’ve ever cared about has been butchered or raped. Governments don’t live together – people live together. With governments, you don’t always get a fair word or a fair fight. Well, I’ve come here to give you either one or get either one from you. I came here like this so you’ll know my word of death is true, and my word of life is then true. The bear lives here, the wolf, the antelope, the Comanche. And so will we. Now we’ll only hunt what we need to live on, same as the Comanche does. And every spring, when the grass turns green, and the Comanche moves north, you can rest here in peace, butcher some of our cattle, and jerk beef for the journey. The sign of the Comanche, that will be on our lodge. That’s my word of life.”

    Ten Bears : “It’s sad that governments are chiefed by the double tongues. There is iron in your words of death for all Comanche to see, and so there is iron in your words of life. No signed paper can hold the iron. It must come from men. The words of Ten Bears carries the same iron of life and death. It is good that warriors such as we meet in the struggle of life… or death. It shall be life.”

    I had previously used Josey Wales as the basis for Part Four of my five part series based on Clint Eastwood movies in 2012, documenting how the Federal Reserve, under the control of the Wall Street banking cabal, had destroyed the middle class and set in motion the ultimate destruction of the American economic system. Here we are twelve years later and that destruction is approaching its climax. As the powers that be are flailing about in a final destructive apocalyptic spasm of hate, greed, and war, the average American needs to channel their inner Josey Wales.

    We can either give up and allow those running this shitshow for their own benefit to enslave us in perpetual debt, culling us with their toxic “vaccines”, making us eat meatless meat and bugs, forcing us into their digital currencies, 15 minute cities (aka electronic gulags), electric cars, and social credit system, or we can get plumb, mad-dog mean and man up. In order to reverse our totalitarian spiral, being executed by  powerful mega-wealthy men and their highly compensated double tongued lackey politicians, bankers, media moguls, and corporate chiefs, those 300 million guns will need to be put to use.

    If we want to live together peacefully, unhindered by an overbearing, corrupt government behemoth, controlled by evil men with evil intentions, then we will have to fight. That’s just the way it is. Ask yourself, “What would Josey Wales do?”, and act accordingly.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/10/2024 – 19:05

  • Speed Cameras In Atlanta Improperly Issued $300,000 To $500,000 Worth Of Tickets
    Speed Cameras In Atlanta Improperly Issued $300,000 To $500,000 Worth Of Tickets

    This is where the future is heading when we leave the police work up to big brother and AI. 

    Innocent drivers in Atlanta were improperly issued $75 tickets for speeding through a school zone at times when flashing yellow lights, used to indicate a revised speed limit during school hours, were not flashing. 

    FOX affiliate WAGA-TV reports that once school is dismissed and the orange lights cease flashing, the speed limit increases to 35 miles per hour, from the revised limit of 25 miles per hour.

    According to follow up reporting from The Sun, Atlanta Public Schools acknowledged that cameras were mistakenly issuing tickets to drivers after hours when the orange lights were off.

    As a result, drivers who received these citations, numbering nearly 4,500 since November 2023, will be refunded. The issue led to the issuance of hundreds of thousands of dollars in incorrect fines over a period of six months.

    Reporters inquired why cameras weren’t deactivated after hours but received no direct response. Ivan DeQuesada was fined $75 for speeding—39 mph in a 25 mph zone at nearly 5 p.m. on a Friday, despite inactive flashing lights, the report says. 

    He said: “I thought about what was happening that day. I remembered what I was doing, and then I thought, ‘Man, I don’t remember that school zone light being on.”

    “So I asked my neighbors, and then I was shocked to find out that several neighbors also got tickets, and they were kind of unexpected for the same reasons,” he continued.

    His neighbor, James Murphy, called it out as a potential money grab:  “They shouldn’t be raking in money from dozens of cars driving down the road when there’s no light blinking.”

    “It really just seems like a way to try to bring in money, rather than actually increase safety,” he concluded. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/10/2024 – 18:45

  • "It's Trump Vs World War III" – Martin Armstrong Warns "The Swamp Is Now An Ocean"
    “It’s Trump Vs World War III” – Martin Armstrong Warns “The Swamp Is Now An Ocean”

    Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

    Legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong says we are going to have a wild close to 2024. 

    Let’s start with Biden’s new job approval rating from Martin Armstrong’s “Socrates” program, which is now only 6% to 7%.  Armstrong explains,

    “It’s the old story of draining the swamp, but now, the swamp is an ocean.  This is completely crazy.  The cases against Trump show you how desperate they are here. 

    The reason they want Biden, and they even blocked RFK Jr. from getting on the Democrat ticket, the reason they want him is he is just a sock puppet. 

    He’s not really in charge.  He’s not making any decisions.”

    Are the Deep State globalist Democrats panicking over the 6% to 7% Biden approval rating? Top people on both sides know this is an accurate number.  With about four months to go before the 2024 Election, are they now panicking over these dismal approval numbers?  Armstrong says, “Oh, yes, they are panicking…”

    ” I have been in politics for more than 40 years.  I know how it works.  All of a sudden, you see in the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal, oh, Biden is slipping behind closed doors.  That would not make the press unless they wanted it to. 

    They are floating a balloon to see how it goes.  All of a sudden, they want Biden to do a debate.  Before, no debates.  Why?  Because they know he’s going to look bad…

    At the Democrat Convention, they will draft someone else, and that is most likely going to be Hillary.”

    The economy and war are linked in a big way, according to Armstrong, and he explains:

    “You’ve got about $10 trillion of US debt that is maturing this year. . . . You’ve got Secretary of State Blinken threatening China with war.  China dumped $53 billion in US debt in the first quarter of 2024.  That means China are sellers and not buyers.  You had Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen flying to China asking, ‘Please don’t sell.’ 

    It didn’t work.  This is why they are talking about raising the capital gains to 44%.  Why?  If nobody is going to buy the debt, that’s when default comes.  If you cannot sell the new debt to pay off the old debt, guess what?  It’s done.  

    This is how governments fall, and I have been warning them for decades that this is how it’s going to end…

    This is why they need war.  This is why Europe is going into war. . . . If you cannot sell the new debt, you have to default.  If you have war, and that is what is really behind this, if you go into war, they get to default and blame Putin…

    In November, it’s going to be Trump vs World War III regardless who is on the other side. 

    If you get Hillary or you get Biden, it’s the same thing.  Hillary is a neocon, and Biden says yes to whatever the neocons want.” 

    And the neocons clearly want war–a big one.

    There is much more in the 1-hour and 3-minute in-depth interview.

    Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Martin Armstrong as he gives his analysis about unpayable global debt, world war and the 2024 Election for 6.8.24.

    *  *  *

    To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here

    There is some free information, analysis and articles on ArmstrongEconomics.com. There are many new and recent reports to consider buying by clicking here.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/10/2024 – 18:25

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Jun 10

Today’s News 10th June 2024

  • France Seeks 'Direct' Entry Into Ukraine War: Kremlin
    France Seeks ‘Direct’ Entry Into Ukraine War: Kremlin

    The Kremlin says that NATO member France is fast becoming a ‘direct’ participant in the Ukraine war, which threatens to drastically inflame tensions and escalate the conflict further, possibly beyond Ukraine’s borders.

    French President Emmanuel Macron on Friday committed to transferring Mirage fighter jets to Kiev, as well as set up a French training program for Ukrainian pilots. He said this while Zelensky and Biden were in France commemorating and attending D-Day 80th anniversary events. Macron went so far as to repeat his call for Western countries to be willing to send troops directly into Ukraine.

    Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reacted as follows: “Macron demonstrates absolute support for the Kyiv regime and declares readiness for France’s direct participation in the military conflict.”

    Via Reuters

    “We consider these statements to be very, very provocative, inflaming tensions on the continent and not conducive to anything positive,” Peskov said Friday on the sidelines of the Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum.

    Macron has pressed ahead undeterred despite repeat Moscow warnings, as The Washington Post observed: 

    The comment, made in a news conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, is the latest sign that France and other allies may now be willing to put NATO country troops on Ukrainian soil — an idea that some allies, including the United States, have long considered potentially escalatory.

    Macron on Friday called Ukraine’s request for in-country training “legitimate” and said several partners have “already given their agreement.”

    “We are going to use the coming days to finalize a coalition, as broad as possible,” he said.

    Some reports have claimed President Biden has talked Macron out of putting Western boots on the ground in Ukraine; however, Biden’s message appears to more simply be that this action can’t be taken without consensus withing NATO.

    Indeed such a plan would run the risk of triggering NATO’s Article 5 common defense treaty, and see nuclear-armed confrontation between Russia and the Western alliance.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The below recent analysis by Responsible Statecraft shows why Macron’s plan to get allies on board at this sensitive moment politically are likely doomed to failure [emphasis ZH]…

    * * *

    Macron stated that Russia must not “win” the war; but, like all the other leaders of NATO, he has never defined what he means by this. Perhaps he means fighting Russia to a standstill followed by a compromise peace. In private conversations, however, French officials simply echo the U.S. line that only the Ukrainians can make peace — and the Ukrainian terms for peace require not a stalemate, but the complete military defeat of Russia.

    The need for Europe to develop a capacity for self-defense should be obvious. Having nailed themselves to the Biden administration, European governments have very belatedly woken up to the realization that the next president may well be Donald Trump, and that the U.S. commitment to Europe may radically diminish. Indeed, given U.S. problems at home and in the Middle East, plus growing tension with China, this commitment is likely to diminish in future whether or not Trump is elected.

    However, Macron’s hope that the supposed threat from Russia will prompt Europe to unite militarily behind French leadership vastly exaggerates both French military power and European willingness to follow France’s lead. After years of budget cuts, the French army is far too weak to intervene in Ukraine without full U.S. support. When in 2011 President Nicolas Sarkozy of France tried to take the lead in the “humanitarian intervention” in Libya, within a very few weeks he was begging an unwilling President Obama to take over the operation on behalf of NATO, for fear of a humiliating Anglo-French failure.

    In terms of appealing to other European countries, Macron’s hawkish stance on Ukraine is targeting East European partners. These governments, however, are precisely the countries with the most deeply-rooted determination to oppose European strategic autonomy and maintain until the bitter end the closest possible alliance with the United States.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/10/2024 – 02:45

  • Germany Is A Naive Pawn Of The USA With No Power To Turn Things Around
    Germany Is A Naive Pawn Of The USA With No Power To Turn Things Around

    By Peter Hansler, author of Voice From Russia

    Disorientated, erratic, weak: Franz Halder – Olaf Scholz

    Introduction

    In Germany, Orwellian conditions prevail in terms of domestic politics and the Germans are being led into the abyss by a bunch of dilettantes in terms of economic policy. When Chancellor Scholz once again publicly criticises a further escalation against Russia and calls for a halt, his words don’t hold water because he regularly gives in to pressure.

    Germany has still not realised that the US are not its friends, but are cold-bloodedly driving the proud and great (former) industrial nation to ruin in order to achieve their own goals.

    There is a pattern to this. Germany has been controlled from Washington since the end of the Second World War. I am firmly convinced that Germany would be perfectly capable of standing up and putting an end to this madness. The Anglo-Saxon plans would have no chance without Germany’s participation.

    Many people who are indoctrinated by the media and politicians do not realise the increasingly tangible risk of a third world war. I refer you to my article “Escalation towards World War 3 – Analysis“. This danger is not new and is constantly growing. Back in February 2023, I pointed out this dangerous trend in “Sleepwalkers at work: World War 3 has probably already begun” and concluded even then that World War 3 had already begun in purely material terms.

    In addition, there are no longer any important voices in German politics or the media that could oppose this madness, as they are not even published by the major media or are labelled as Russia-lovers or Nazis.

    It would take strength and courage to turn the tide. The last time the Germans were driven into the abyss by psychopaths, they did not find this courage and were completely destroyed. Only then did they spit in their hands and phenomena such as the “Trümmerfrauen” led the country back to prosperity.

    Warmongering

    As a representative of the warmongers, it should be briefly noted that Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann (FDP) has called for the 900,000 reservists in Germany to be activated. The reason for the “defence politician’s” call is Russia’s possible attack plans against the West. The flaw in this plan: There is not the slightest evidence of any attack plans by Russia. A catastrophe is being conjured up here that is based on invented dangers.

    In medicine, we speak of delusions when a doctor hears from his patient that he is afraid of being poisoned by his wife, even though the man in question is not married.

    President Putin’s answer to a question from a journalist at his press conference in St. Petersburg shows the usually thoughtful president to be really angry:

    Have you completely lost your minds?
    Stupid as a table?
    They invented that Russia wants to attack NATO.
    Have you completely lost your minds?
    Dumm wie dieser Tisch?
    Who came up with this?
    It’s nonsense, utter rubbish.
    It would be rubbish, if it wasn’t a plan to just trick their own population by saying, “Help, Russia is going to attack soon, we must arm ourselves urgently, send weapons to Ukraine!”
    In reality it is done to preserve their own imperial standing and might, that what it’s done for.
    Look at NATO’s potential and Russia’s potential.
    Did you decide, we are crazy or something?

    A few days ago, NATO also announced its preparations to deploy 300,000 American troops to the European fronts in the event of a full-blown conflict with Russia. The spiral of madness is accelerating.

    By comparing President Putin with Hitler, the Second World War is used to analyse the situation, although the situation of continuous warfare shows striking parallels to the events that took place before the First World War and triggered a war that nobody actually wanted and plunged humanity into an apocalypse.

    This war merely paused between 1918 and 1939 and flared up again in Europe 21 years later. There are many signs that the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East are the overture to a major catastrophe. Escalation is the motto – everyone in the West agrees on this; the peace conference in Switzerland, without Russia as a warring party and with “peace goals” that are grotesque, merely serves as a fig leaf for the aggressive West to be able to say that everything has been tried when a major conflict breaks out. This conference will fail and is designed to do so. The Swiss Federal Council does not seem to have realised this; the formerly neutral country is acting just as naively as Germany and, with the help of the Swiss media, has quickly become a vile warmonger under the guise of “neutrality”, a term that has degenerated into a meaningless label.

    No education and no historical awareness on the part of the government

    In addition, the German leadership lacks education. If you don’t understand history and the strategy of the Hegemons, you are in a poor position, because a lack of historical awareness leads to wrong decisions in the present.

    The main thrust of the hegemons has not changed in the last 120 years or so. It is somewhat surprising that many people still believe today that Germany was solely responsible for the First World War. Even then, every conceivable effort was made internationally to prevent the Germans from focussing on peace and prosperity in the long term and with all their social power.

    Germany was becoming too strong economically for the then hegemon Great Britain. The construction of the Berlin-Baghdad railway, for example, threatened the British Empire not only industrially, but also in terms of trade routes. If you understand Mackinder’s Heartland Theory, which saw the British Empire in danger as early as 1905, and internalise the strategy of Brzesinski and Friedman, the First World War and today’s tensions make much more sense. However, this requires a minimum of knowledge and education, which the German government clearly lacks. On this topic, I refer you to the article by Karl Eckstein “Anglo-Saxon geopolitical strategy – unchanged for 120 years“. We will return to this topic below.

    Back to the top with courage, stubbornness and discipline

    The economic miracle after the Second World War was an impressive achievement by the Germans after the Second World War. Through hard work and a skilful economic policy, Germany brought itself back to the top of the world. The Marshall Plan launched in 1947 certainly helped, but the Germans achieved their rise primarily through their own efforts. Determined, stubborn and skilful. Ludwig Ehrhard, the first Economics Minister after the war, epitomised the right policy. He had the courage to abolish rationing and price controls as early as 1948; the British, who won the war after all – albeit as the junior partner of the USA – did not abandon the last rationing regulations until 1954. If politics and business make the right decisions, Germany flourishes. Until a few years ago, it was Germany that was the world’s leading exporter.

    Trümmerfrauen – a symbol of the rebuilding of Germany

    That’s the positive side of this determined marching and stubbornness, which was necessary to catch up with the top after humanity’s greatest war disaster to date.

    Stubbornness and overconfidence lead to hell

    However, with the same stubbornness, the Germans also managed to lead their own country – and many others – into the apocalypse and failed to put a stop to it even when any cool-headed observer could see – see, not guess – the catastrophe long before the collapse.

    After the great military successes that culminated in the victory over France in 1940, the German army leadership under Adolf Hitler decided to conquer the Soviet Union. Many generals who survived the war and wrote their memoirs afterwards wrote themselves into heroes after the war and claimed that it was Hitler alone who wanted this campaign – they had warned and opposed it.

    That is not true. The German army command and the majority of the German people – especially after the French campaign in 1940 – were in such a frenzy of victory that they believed themselves to be invincible and took a bite that they choked on.

    The logisticians were the only ones who really warned and rightly argued that the supply of the troops could only cope with such a huge campaign for a few weeks. Almost four million soldiers invaded the Soviet Union, three million Germans and many Romanians, Italians and other allied units. Hitler was convinced that all they had to do was kick down the door and the whole rotten structure would collapse. Disillusionment came very quickly, however.

    Biographies of the great German generals are embellished marketing brochures and are in no way suitable for a fact-based analysis. Everything that did not make the gentlemen look good was deliberately omitted. For example, these gentlemen were very well informed about what was happening to Jews and other parts of the civilian population behind the front line, because the genocide required coordination between the ” Einsatztruppen” and the combat troops. The megalomania, in which many generals were in no way second to Adolf Hitler, was also rewritten in the biographies.

    However, if you browse through the war diaries of the military leadership, you will find the truth. I read the war diary of the Chief of the Army General Staff, Colonel General Franz Halder. It reveals the truth, written down directly on the day of the events in question. The author did not believe that these records would ever be made public and therefore these records are to be rated significantly higher in terms of honesty than the embellished biographies.

    Reading this work, one is surprised that the Chief of the General Staff clearly lacked an accurate overview. He noted down fragments of information, many figures and individual reports. How a war could be waged on the basis of such information is beyond me.

    Furthermore, the erratic nature of the overall assessment on the Eastern Front is more than astonishing and confirms the impression of a lack of oversight, which would have been essential for the success of warfare in various theatres.

    On 3 July 1941, less than two weeks after the start of “Barbarossa”, the great German offensive against Russia, Halder reported that Russia would probably be finished in a fortnight, only to report just over a month later, on 11 August, that the “colossus” Russia had been underestimated. By the summer of 1941, the dream of a quick victory was already over and the difficulties warned of by the logisticians were already materialising. In October, the Germans were once again confident of victory before the “Typhoon” offensive – the final advance on Moscow – and announced the defeat of the Soviet Union. Things turned out differently. Only a few motorbike patrols made it as far as Khimki, a suburb of Moscow, which today lies on the MKAD ring road, a good 20 kilometres from the Kremlin.

    A memorial “Monument to the Defenders of Moscow” was erected. Will the memorial bear fruit?

    Moscow not only survived, the Russians went on the offensive for the first time. On 8 December 1941, Adolf Hitler issued directive no. 39 and the offensive was halted.

    When Wilhelm Keitel, head of the Wehrmacht High Command, was asked by the Soviet prosecutor Major Iona Timofeyevich Nikitchenko at the first Nuremberg war crimes trial when he thought the war against Russia had been lost, Keitel replied with one word: “Moscow”.

    Continuing the war even though militarily defeated

    Germany’s strategy: fight on until the end

    After the defeat before Moscow, the German Wehrmacht was so weakened, even in the opinion of German generals, that a victory against the Soviet Union was no longer conceivable. Nevertheless, the war continued for almost another three and a half years. In the history books, the defeat of the Wehrmacht is linked to later lost battles: Stalingrad (1942), Kursk (1943), Bagration (1944) and even Berlin (1945). Most of the losses were suffered by both sides after 1941, but the fact that the Wehrmacht still managed to continue causing damage for almost three and a half years despite its strategic defeat in front of Moscow should be borne in mind when assessing wars in Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq and ultimately Ukraine and Gaza. These conflicts were and continue to be waged despite the aggressor’s realisation that military victory was and is impossible. Why?

    There are probably several reasons why the Germans did not call off the operation in Russia in 1941. Firstly, it was the Nazis’ declared aim to exterminate the Soviets, whom they saw as sub-human. They were quite successful in doing so, as they managed to kill around 15 million civilians. Secondly, an armistice with Stalin would have been difficult, as the military reputation of the Wehrmacht would have suffered, the genocide of the population would have become known worldwide and, after an armistice, a strengthened Russia would have stood on the borders of the German Reich. There were therefore many reasons for the Nazis not to seek peace with Stalin. It is important to note that the Germans did not gain any advantage from this strategy, but rather caused their downfall.

    US strategy: lose militarily – win strategically

    The Americans also continue to fight lost wars, but achieve strategic goals that benefit their geopolitical strategy.

    Since the Second World War, it has been observed that the US has also continued military conflicts for a long time despite regular military defeats. However, they do this by managing to keep their own losses very low, as their weapons systems were vastly superior to their weak opponents until recently, they had air superiority and regularly sent third parties into the fire as proxies.

    The reasons for this strategy are multi-layered: firstly, war is a huge business for the USA – or rather for the military-industrial complex. Secondly, the main aim of these wars is to weaken strategic opponents; this can be achieved even if one is ultimately defeated militarily.

    As I am now in Iran and studying its history, the Iran-Iraq war is a prime example of this strategy, in which the USA even managed not to be involved militarily; Iraq was used as a proxy. The war lasted eight years. Although the Iranians ultimately prevailed militarily, they were completely bled dry financially, militarily and in terms of population. Many well-educated men died in this conflict, who were then missing for reconstruction. The Americans succeeded in making the rise of an Iran independent of the USA after the Shah impossible in the long term and to this day – goal achieved.

    Is the US strategy working in Ukraine?

    Fakten

    In my opinion, NATO’s military defeat in Ukraine has been a fact since September 2023. We already discussed this last September in “Ukraine is militarily finished“. Since then, the Russian territorial gains have been steadily increasing and for a few weeks now, the Russians have opened a new front from the north against Kharkov, which has led to the front being extended once again, thinning out the Ukrainians’ forces even further. The Russians do not need to launch a major offensive – and have not done so to date – but are instead wearing down the Ukrainian forces on the ever-lengthening front line with small advances. Ukrainian losses per day are steadily increasing and have long since passed the point where these losses were still replaceable. The weapons arriving in Ukraine from the West will not solve the problem – there is not only a lack of soldiers, but above all a lack of will on the part of the Ukrainian population to go to their deaths for the US. Furthermore, President Zelensky has been ruling without a legal basis since May. He has not allowed any elections to take place as he would have been voted out of office. This fact alone makes negotiations with the legalistic Russians impossible.

    The facts are on the table; whether you like them or not is irrelevant. Russia will prevail militarily in this conflict. The Russian people are united, the military and civilian infrastructure is functioning, the economy is booming.

    This time the USA misses its target – or does it?

    The USA has failed against Russia in several ways: firstly, it has missed its military target and this failure is damaging America’s prestige as the greatest military power. Secondly, the sanctions war against Russia was a complete failure. The West was weakened and Russia was strengthened. The IMF figures speak volumes. Germany doesn’t even make the list.

    The USA did not succeed in weakening Russia. However, the US strategy is much more cynical. Let’s come back to Mackinder: let’s talk about George Friedman, the current head of American geostrategy, the successor to Mackinder and Brzesinski, so to speak:

    “The primary interest of the United States through the last century-that is, the First War, the Second War, and the Cold War-has been the relationship between Germany and Russia, because united, those two would be the only power that could threaten us-and so we have to make sure that doesn’t happen.”

    George Friedman

    The aim is therefore to prevent Germany from teaming up with Russia. If it is not possible to weaken Russia as a major opponent, there is the option of preventing the alliance by turning Germany and Russia into enemies and/or destroying Germany. Today, Germany is hostile to Russia and massively weakened by this conflict. A military conflict with Russia would probably destroy Germany once again. The USA is therefore on the “right” path – for the third time after 1918 and 1945.

    Germany’s turnaround unlikely

    The German population has lost its way

    Just like 80 years ago, the Germans have lost their way. The soul of the people has been poisoned by the media’s hate propaganda and the population is misinformed about its own economic and military situation – the Second World War sends its regards. Only after the German people have been given a honest talking to would they be able to properly assess the situation and exert pressure on the government, whose members are incompetent but masterfully pursue their personal interests.

    Those in power want to maintain their position and their standard of living

    There is a complete lack of competence in the government itself. I don’t even need to discuss this at this point, as it is so obvious.

    From an American perspective, the government’s line-up is a good choice: Scholz, Habeck, Baerbock and whatever their names are.

    Due to their lack of education and character weaknesses, such people would have no chance whatsoever of obtaining a post in the free economy that would allow them so much money, flights in private jets, trips in limousines and overnight stays in the best hostels in the world. I can’t think of any business owner who would hire Mrs Baerbock as an employee in any company for any function.

    These politicians know this very well and they do everything they can to continue to lead this life. Instructions from Brussels or Washington are therefore followed in order to guarantee their own job security. They want to be re-elected or receive a new post due to their “loyalty” to Washington, which secures their standard of living. There is currently even speculation that Mrs Baerbock could possibly become Ursula von der Leyen’s successor in Brussels. It can therefore be ruled out that the current government would decide to make a U-turn – their own interests prohibit them from doing so.

    New elections will not bring any change

    Neither the people nor the current government will therefore want or be able to make a U-turn. Would new elections change the picture?

    I am extremely pessimistic about that too. The only political groups that could dare to reassess Russia are the AFD and the Sarah Wagenknecht alliance. The powers that be are aware of this and are using every means at their disposal, with or without a legal basis, to destroy the AFD and ridicule Wagenknecht.

    Without having to enter into legal analyses, the accusations against the AFD are already absurd in and of themselves. The AFD is accused of right-wing extremism and its members are labelled Nazis. Even the German Office for the Protection of the Constitution is looking into these issues. The situation is therefore as follows: The warmongers from the CDU/CSU to the Greens, i.e. from left to right, are calling the AFD, which alongside the Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance is the only party in favour of negotiations with Russia and is against the war, Nazis and want to ban it. Terms are being confused and history seems to have been lost.

    You can sense that there are people in Germany who oppose the warmongering of the government and the media and are taking to the streets, but even if the AFD were to achieve a brilliant result, this will not bring about a turnaround.

    According to the latest figures from the Sunday Bundestag election poll, the AFD would achieve between 14% and 19%, depending on the polling organisation, and the Sarah Wagenknecht alliance between 5% and 8%. Although these are good results compared to the 2021 elections (AFD: 10.3%, Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance was only just formed), they will not be enough to tip the balance of power in the Bundestag towards peace.

    Worse still, the CDU/CSU will probably win the elections and Friedrich Merz, whom the USA no longer needs to buy, as this already happened years ago due to his Blackrock mandate, will become the next Federal Chancellor on the basis of today’s figures. More pro-USA and therefore more pro-war is not possible. Depending on the outcome of the elections, there will either be a coalition with the SPD or another three-party coalition with the Greens. A great deal would have to change in order to prevent this outcome.

    Cautionary voices are silenced

    Internal forces that would bring about a turnaround are therefore lacking in Germany. Voices that oppose this are already being systematically silenced by the system (government and media). The parallels between the actions of those in power today and the 1930s are astounding and worrying. From 1933 onwards, a similar approach was taken, first gently and then increasingly harshly against journalists who asked questions, until the final destination was murder or concentration camp. The fact that Scott Ritter was denied permission to leave his own country a few days ago shows that illegal practices are already a fact of life in the USA and will soon be a reality in Germany too.

    Dangerous upcoming wake-up calls

    Coming financial collapse as a wake-up call

    It is interesting in this context that no one seems to care about the instability in the Western financial markets. The situation is very similar to the domestic and geopolitical situation. People think they have everything under control, although the reality speaks a different language. The entire system could collapse any day and that day will come. Such a collapse could be a wake-up call that forces a reassessment of the overall situation or will lead to a complete escalation.

    Russia’s strike against NATO as a wake-up call

    The war against Russia has already begun, Russia has not yet reacted kinetically against NATO. Western politicians often bluff and draw red lines in the sand, which are moved once they are crossed. The West does not recognise that the Russians operate differently: they are systematic, clear and do not bluff: they do things differently. The escalation in the use of long-range weapons against targets in Russia is not at all to the liking of the Russians and President Putin has announced consequences. These consequences will come. This could involve a strike against NATO facilities outside Ukraine, including in Germany; see our comments on this in “The consequences of the intercepted German air force conversation mean war“. The chatter about a Russian nuclear attack in the West is a distraction from this conventional danger.

    This could also be a wake-up call. The West has obviously not considered that NATO would not have an adequate response to such a strike by Russia. If the Russians come to the conclusion that such a strike will be followed by apathy, it will come and serve as a wake-up call. Nevertheless, it is a dangerous game.

    Conclusion

    It is obvious that Germany is misjudging the threat situation and its chances and is being completely controlled by the USA. The incompetent and erratic assessment of the situation is nothing new – as a comparison with Franz Halder’s diary shows – and the longer the Bonmôt that history will not repeat itself, the more critically one should assess it. Keitel’s statement confirms that Germany is perfectly capable of walking into disaster with its eyes wide open. In this context, the ability of the Germans to work their way out of even the greatest ruin is little consolation. The chances of Germany achieving a turnaround are minimal.

    Mass events such as the Olympics would certainly be valuable catalysts for coming to the conclusion that the whole thing could be reconsidered in the peaceful confrontation of a sporting event with the “enemies”. However, the Olympic Committee is aware of this and is doing everything it can to prevent such an outcome. René Zittlau reported on this in his article “Sport is the continuation of diplomacy by other means“.

    To prevent a global war, it would take a wake-up call of the martial kind, such as the collapse of the financial system or a military response from Russia. However, it is impossible to judge whether such events would lead to reflection or escalation.

    In my opinion, however, the main responsibility for this situation lies with the leading media in the West. Objective reporting over the last 10 years would have made this development in politics and among the people impossible.

    The fourth estate has degenerated into a myth.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 06/10/2024 – 02:00

  • Connecticut Democrats Use Pride Flag To 'Honor' State Trooper Killed On Duty
    Connecticut Democrats Use Pride Flag To ‘Honor’ State Trooper Killed On Duty

    Authored by Steve Watson via modernity.news,

    Democrats in Wethersfield, Connecticut refused to fly the ‘thin blue line’ flag in remembrance of a state trooper who was killed while on duty, instead insisting that flying an LGBTQ ‘pride’ flag at half staff was enough of an honor.

    Yes, really.

    Trooper Aaron Pelletier was killed while conducting a routine traffic stop, with one Alex Oyola-Sanchez arrested and charged with second-degree manslaughter.

    Police said Oyola-Sanchez was under the influence of several types of drugs when he drove into Pelletier, his squad car and the vehicle he had pulled over.

    The trooper died from fatal injuries at the scene. Oyola-Sanchez Drove off but was later apprehended.

    Democrat council members voted down a motion to fly the thin blue line flag in the trooper’s honor.

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    Emily Zambrello, one of those members, told reporters that the decision was taken because the flag represents “racism and antagonism.”

    Zambrello further claimed that a compromise had been made by having the LGBTQ pride flag “already up at half staff in honor of [Pelletier’s] passing.”

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    Absolutely incredible.

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    Compare this pathetic ‘Pride’ gathering to the way the State Troopers honored Pelleteir:

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    Connecticut GOP chairman Ben Proto slammed Democrats for failing to properly honor the fallen trooper.

    This epitomises the utter state of towns and cities under Democrat control.

    Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/09/2024 – 23:20

  • Massie Slams AIPAC, Censorship, Surveillance, Debt Crisis, And Insane Government Regulations: New Tucker
    Massie Slams AIPAC, Censorship, Surveillance, Debt Crisis, And Insane Government Regulations: New Tucker

    Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) sat down with Tucker Carlson for a little over two hours, where the two discussed a variety of topics, including the grip that lobbies such as AIPAC has have over legislative agendas, freedom of speech, government surveillance, and the influence of the media when it comes to the political polarization of American politics.

    (If you click into the tweet below you can navigate to various sections)

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    Massie began by opining on the US National Debt, which currently stands at just under $35 trillion.

    You know, it’s hard to comprehend 14 digits of debt. But when you see the last five digits are moving so fast, you can’t, you know, perceive them with your eyes, then you kind of understand. Whoa, we are problem here. I mean, it’s a $100,000 a second, roughly. So imagine we had this catapult and we were launching, cyber trucks once a second into the ocean. That’s how much debt we’re taking on, continuously.

    He noted a troubling tendency by Congress to treat the debt as a mere abstraction vs. an urgent reality that requires immediate and decisive action, telling Carlson “I am trying to make people feel very uncomfortable” so a to raise awareness.

    Lobbyists Rule DC

    Massie then went into his views on lobbying and his stance on foreign aid – in particular, his consistent record of voting against funding for Israel. He explained that his opposition to these measures is not rooted in animosity towards Israel but stems from a broader philosophical and fiscal responsibility perspective against excessive foreign aid and involvement in overseas conflicts.

    “Look, we haven’t named three post offices like in the last month. We voted like 15 or 16 times on issues related to Israel. And, you know, I’ve been hit because I voted no on all of them.“

    His repeated votes against funding Israel reflect his commitment to reducing U.S. expenditures overseas, which he views as contributing to the national debt and entangling the U.S. in foreign issues that do not directly serve American interests. Massie’s larger concern is the implications of US foreign policy decisions and the use of US taxpayer funds to achieve them.

    He then delved deep into the workings and influence of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) on the legislative processes of the United States Congress – and in particular, how the organization shapes the agenda in Washington DC, often overshadowing domestic priorities.

    According to Massie, AIPAC effectively places “minders” on GOP members to monitor and influence their actions and voting – saying that each Repuiblican seems to have an “AIPAC person” or babysitter.

    “I have Republicans, you come to me on the floor and say, ‘I wish I could vote with you today. Yours is the right vote, but I would just take too much flak back home,” adding “And I have Republicans who come to me and say, ‘That’s wrong, what a PAC is doing to you. Let me talk to my AIPAC person.’ By the way, everybody but me has an AIPAC person.”

    MASSIE: It’s like your babysitter. Your AIPAC babysitter who is always talking to you for AIPAC. They’re probably a constituent in your district, but they are, you know, firmly embedded in AIPAC.

    CARLSON: And every member has something like this.

    MASSIE: Every Re– I don’t know how it works on the Democrats’ side. But that’s how it works on the Republican side. And when they come to D.C., you go have lunch with them. And they’ve got your cell number and you have conversations with them. So I’ve had like–

    CARLSON: That’s absolutely crazy.

    MASSIE: I’ve had four members of Congress say, “I’ll talk to my AIPAC person.” And like that’s clearly what we call them, my AIPAC guy. I’ll talk to my AIPAC guy and see if I can get them to, you know, dial those ads back.

    CARLSON: Why have I never heard this before?

    MASSIE: It doesn’t benefit anybody. Why would they want to tell their constituents that they’ve basically got a buddy system with somebody who’s representing a foreign country? It doesn’t benefit the congressman for people to know that. So they’re not going to tell you that.

    “They pay for trips for congressmen and their spouses to go to Israel,” Massie continued. “I’m not the only Republican who hasn’t taken the AIPAC trip to Israel, but I’m probably one of a dozen that hasn’t taken that trip and the other ones just haven’t got around to it.”

    Censorship and Freedom of Speech

    Massie also addressed concerns related to censorship, particularly focusing on legislation that impacts freedom of speech on university campuses. For example, he was critical of a bill that proposed to combat anti-Semitism in educational institutions but, according to him, used an overly broad and externally defined criterion that could potentially limit free speech, pointing out the problematic aspects of using an external definition of anti-Semitism from a website, which he felt could lead to censorship of legitimate academic discussions and expressions. He questioned the rationale behind not including the definition directly in the bill, which could lead to ambiguities and potential misuse:

    “They brought a bill to Congress, and this was actually a binding bill, not a non-binding resolution… the problem with this bill is they use some international definition of anti-Semitism on a website somewhere. My first question is, why don’t you just put the definition in the bill?”

    He then said that referencing an external source for defining what constitutes hate speech could lead to arbitrary or politically motivated censorship, particularly in educational settings where freedom of speech is crucial.

    “For instance, saying that, Jews kill Jesus, which is, you know, in the Bible, he was he was not welcome among his own people. Okay. And so that would be anti-Semitism. And if you engaged in that on campus or just offered that as a thought, let’s say in a classroom, you would be anti-Semitic and you would run afoul of the Department of Education and some federal laws.”

    Out-of-control Government

    Massie also discussed his concerns over government surveillance, privacy, and overreach, specifically focusing on legislative measures that would allow more intrusive government control. One of the main examples he brought up was related to automotive regulations that would permit remote deactivation of vehicles.

    For example, a law that mandates new cars sold by 2026 must have the capability to be remotely turned off by authorities. Massie criticized this capability as a significant overreach, saying, “By 2026, every new automobile sold has to be able to turn itself off if it doesn’t like you’re driving… How do you appeal this conviction at the roadside?” This statement underscores his concerns about the potential for misuse and the erosion of individual freedoms and privacy.

    Massie suggests a call to action for policymakers, technologists, and the public to consider the long-term implications of short-term safety measures.

    His message is based in libertarian principles, and focuses on the trade-offs between security measures and personal freedoms. With the car example above, Massie slams  the lack of recourse or transparency in how these technologies are applied. For him, the principle of autonomy—being able to control one’s movement without unwarranted interference—is paramount.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/09/2024 – 22:45

  • Jim Jordan Reacts To Shocking Report Of Potential Juror Misconduct in Trump Trial
    Jim Jordan Reacts To Shocking Report Of Potential Juror Misconduct in Trump Trial

    Authored by Ben Sellers via Headline USA,

    During a visit to Monroe, N.C., to support conservative congressional candidate Mark Harris on Friday, House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, was surprised by a reporter’s question about fresh allegations from former President Donald Trump’s New York lawfare trial that could potentially result in a mistrial.

    Earlier in the day, Judge Juan Merchan wrote a letter to Trump’s attorneys and prosecutors with the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office, notifying them of a Facebook comment that was discovered under a routine court post dated May 29, the day before a jury convicted Trump of 34 felonies.

    The commenter, identifying himself as a juror’s cousin by the name of Michael Anderson, appeared to offer some advance inside knowledge about the verdict.

    “Well, if that happened, that’s wrong,” Jordan responded when asked about the breaking news. “I have not heard that and I don’t know if it’s true, but you obviously aren’t supposed to be doing that, so we’ll have to see.“

    In his letter, Merchan claimed he had just learned of the comment.

    “Today, the Court became aware of a comment that was posted on the Unified Court System’s public Facebook page and which I now bring to your attention,” the judge wrote. “The comment, now labeled as one week old, responded to a routine UCS notice, posted on May 29.”

    Merchan’s letter did not clarify whether the person who posted the comment was indeed related to a juror.

    The judge, a Biden donor, was widely criticized for his biased rulings throughout the trial and was even suspected of receiving bribes through his daughter, whose digital marketing firm drew millions of dollars from Democrat politicians—some of whom became involved directly in the case.

    Merchan’s brief letter did not outline any sort of follow up steps, although it stands to reason that the court will investigate the matter and would declare a mistrial if, in fact, juror misconduct were established.

    The concern provides yet another avenue for appeal to Trump, whom many legal experts believe will ultimately see the case overturned, although the disruption to his campaign and political fallout from the conviction have yet to be determined.

    At the Friday night fundraiser in North Carolina, Jordan offered high praise for Trump, with whom he has formed a close bond, touting his tenacity in particular.

    “His attitude in light of everything they’ve done to him is just phenomenal,” Jordan told the audience.

    The charter chairman of the House Freedom Caucus recalled an anecdote from the night Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate was raided by the FBI—an unprecedented abuse of power at the time—which took place shortly before the 2022 midterm election.

    “There are certain times where you think, ‘This is not supposed to happen in this country,’” Jordan said of his reaction after seeing the news unfold on television with his wife.

    When he called Trump, however, the reaction was far from what one might have expected:

    “Jim, this is the best thing that’s ever happened to our party,” Trump reportedly told him. “My numbers are gonna go up.”

    During an exclusive interview with Headline USA, Jordan said House Republicans had received a response on Friday after sending a letter last week to Manhattan D.A. Alvin Bragg and his lead prosecutor, requesting that they testify before the House Weaponization Subcommittee.

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    “They just sent us a letter back today saying they’re willing to talk to us, so we’ll see,” said Jordan. “But we may have to, you know, go with a subpoena to get him [Bragg] to testify as well.”

    The House is also investigating Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, who has publicly quarreled with Jordan and leveled ad hominem attacks against him for his oversight efforts.

    Jordan noted, however, that as of this week, “Willis’s case is falling apart” following an appellate court’s decision to suspend the trial until October while evaluating whether she is ethically fit to continue as prosecutor.

    The House is also attempting to impose accountability on special counsel Jack Smith. However, a proposed bill likely faces steep odds of clearing the Democrat-run Senate, even though it ironically vests greater authority in the upper chamber to close a constitutional loophole exploited by Attorney General Merrick Garland.

    “We’re trying to get legislation out to say that any special counsel who wasn’t approved by the Senate gets no funds,” Jordan said. “It‘s the way to get at this Jack Smith and the ridiculous things he’s done.”

    Florida Judge Aileen Cannon has similarly scheduled a June 21 hearing for Trump and his co-defendants in the Mar-a-Lago case to argue that Smith’s appointment was unlawful since he was never confirmed by the Senate—a legal theory first floated by former Attorney General Ed Meese.

    Jordan downplayed calls for the House to rescind two contempt of Congress resolutions passed by Democrats in the previous session, saying the move was unlikely to have any effect on the already prosecuted cases.

    Two former Trump advisers—Peter Navarro and Steve Bannon—became the first people prosecuted and convicted under the law in roughly four decades, fueling more outrage and allegations of two-tiered justice. Navarro is currently incarcerated, and Bannon is expected to report to jail by the end of the month.

    In the wake of Trump’s felony convictions, House Republicans have faced brutal criticism from some for their inaction, with Jordan, in particular, bearing the brunt of it over his failure to live up to his promise as a GOP attack dog—instead becoming the champion of the “strongly worded letter.”

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    Ben Sellers is the editor of Headline USA. Follow him at twitter.com/realbensellers.

    The Center Square’s Brett Rowland contributed to this report.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/09/2024 – 22:10

  • Mapping Illegal Immigrants By State
    Mapping Illegal Immigrants By State

    U.S. President Joe Biden recently announced actions to bar immigrants who cross the US-Mexico border illegally.

    In this graphic, Visual Capitalist’s Bruno Venditti maps the number of unauthorized immigrants by state, based on 2021 estimates from the Pew Research Center based on calculations using U.S. Census Bureau data.

    Undocumented Immigrants Concentrated in Certain States

    The unauthorized immigrant population in the United States was estimated at around 10 million in 2021 after peaking at 12.2 million in 2007.

    California, Texas, Florida, New York, New Jersey, and Illinois had the largest unauthorized immigrant populations in 2021. These six states were home to 56% of the nation’s unauthorized immigrants in 2021, down from 80% in 1990.

    Between 2017 and 2021, the unauthorized immigrant populations in Florida and Washington increased, while those in California and Nevada decreased.

    The most common country of birth for people without legal status is Mexico. In recent years, however, there have been increases in immigrants from nearly every other region of the world—Central America, the Caribbean, South America, Asia, Europe, and sub-Saharan Africa.

    In addition, around 5% of U.S. workers are unauthorized immigrants.

    If you enjoyed this post, be sure to check out Why Do People Immigrate to the U.S.? This visualization shows why immigrants choose to come to America.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/09/2024 – 21:35

  • Illegals Marching in NYC Usher In Next Phase Of Biden’s Color Revolution
    Illegals Marching in NYC Usher In Next Phase Of Biden’s Color Revolution

    Submitted by Ben Sellers via Headline USA,

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    Commentary

    Pieces of the jigsaw puzzle that is the 2024 election heist all began fitting together Friday as illegal immigrants took over New York City’s Times Square to demand the abolishing of Immigration and Customs Enforcement in response to what was already a toothless and symbolic executive order from President Joe Biden.

    And so begins the long foretold Cloward–Piven strategy that will not only secure for the radical Left another election cycle, but perhaps a permanent toppling of the capitalist/democratic system via Marxist revolution.

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    In retrospect, it may seem clear all along that it was the “newcomers” and not the Hamas-indoctrinated college kids who would be the George Floyd rioters of the current season, after having invaded the country to the tune of some 11 million.

    The earlier protests were, of course, a test run for Soros-funded organizers to dust off their riot gear and update their four-year-old call lists for when a spontaneous flash-mob is needed, the underlying cause being moot (as many of the terrorist sympathizers demonstrated in on-the-scene interviews).

    Once all is said and done, it would not be the least bit surprising if the corrupt Biden administration has not only declared martial law, but granted de-facto citizenship and enfranchisement to all of the foreign interlopers, using the pretext that blanket amnesty will be the only way to placate these paid, well-organized rioters.

    However, American citizens may be too distracted dealing with other things to put up a political fight over the issue. Looming on the horizon is the prospect of a new pandemic-level shutdown that is now being advocated by both the World Health Organization and the United Nations over the livestock-borne bird flu. No matter that the one human fatality thus far documented is likely a hoax.

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    When one’s basic human needs are in question—such as the nation’s food supply, and access to friends and family—things like freedom and civil liberties may suddenly seem trivial.

    Meanwhile, the great MAGA champion himself, presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump, will be in jail, if that is where they want him to be.

    Doing so inevitably would result in an uprising of some kind from conservatives, which is the one thing that the Left could not control—although with AI-operated F-35 drones they might contain it fairly well.

    A united conservative front actively rallying against them is, nonetheless, a bad look for the illegitimate U.S. administration, particularly if the vast majority of the people sympathize with and support the movement.

    Rather, the Trump thread is likely to merge in the near future with the incessant efforts by ethically bankrupt Sens. Dick Durbin, D-Ill., and Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I., to discredit the U.S. Supreme Court, which will be forced to intervene in order to prevent the constitutional crisis that results from a local district attorney in a deep-blue city attempting to lock up the leading presidential candidate on spurious federal charges that not even the judge and jury seem to be clear on.

    Enter the aforementioned flash-mob rioters to threaten and intimidate the SCOTUS justices, having recently doxxed Samuel Alito by plastering pictures of his home in every leftist media outlet. Nothing is keeping these unhinged, bloodthirsty Bolsheviks from actually following through on “releasing the whirlwind,” to use the euphemism for assassination coined by Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y.

    Such an act, in their warped minds, would be payback for having been deprived of their due when Merrick Garland was prevented from stealing the seat held by the late, great Antonin Scalia; and when Amy Coney Barrett replaced their own icon, Ruth Bader Ginsburg. In a true dose of poetic justice, Garland would be complicit in the foul deed by failing to enforce the federal laws preventing it.

    Nonetheless, swapping out a single justice will not deliver them what they desire, which is to own the entire court system, so they will proceed to use whatever public outrage they engineer to push through more court oversight hearings, efforts to pack the court and even to put it under the direct purview of Garland’s Justice Department.

    The one saving grace might be the refusal of centrist Sens. Sinema, Manchin, Fetterman, etc., to go along with the ploy. But with brute force as the alternative, what choice will there be?

    Suffice it to say, the 11 million extra votes will be just the boost that the eventual Democrat candidate needs to prevail, and at that point, if Trump hasn’t had the good sense to flee, he will have at least three more show trials to look forward to while in Rikers Island.

    Don’t think for a moment that, as America slept, leftists haven’t spent the last half century gaming out such a sequence of events and waiting for their moment to come. And they will stop at nothing now that it has arrived.

    Ben Sellers is the editor of Headline USA. Follow him at twitter.com/realbensellers.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/09/2024 – 21:00

  • Teton Pass Collapse In Landslide Could Spark Worker Shortage In Jackson Hole 
    Teton Pass Collapse In Landslide Could Spark Worker Shortage In Jackson Hole 

    On Saturday morning, the Wyoming Department of Transportation (WY DOT) shared a Facebook post from Governor Mark Gordon. The post included footage of a landslide that swallowed a section of Teton Pass, which connects Jackson Hole with the communities around Victor, Idaho. 

    “This morning I met with state officials from the Wyoming Department of Transportation and Wyoming Office of Homeland Security to coordinate a response to the catastrophic landslide that has closed Teton Pass,” Gov. Gordon wrote in the post on Saturday. 

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    The governor said, “WYDOT geologists and engineers will be on site today to conduct an assessment and develop a long-term solution to rebuild the roadway,” adding, “At this point, we do not have an estimated timeline for the road to reopen.” 

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    “The buzz is it will be closed for several weeks or months,” Teton County Commission Chairman Luther Propst told local media outlet WyoFile. 

    With the closure of Teton Pass, a once convenient 35-minute journey now stretches to a grueling 1 hour and 35 minutes, or even longer if there are any detours. This is a big blow to the low-skilled workers of J-Hole who rely on this route due to the unaffordable living costs in the resort town. The new detour will only compound the challenges for these workers – and who knows – some may quit over the new commute.

    Propst noted, “The county’s looking at camping options at the fairgrounds” for Idaho commuters who work in Jackson Hole.

    Here’s what X users are saying…

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    Could J-Hole elites experience a worker shortage? Maybe Biden could send them some illegal aliens.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/09/2024 – 20:25

  • Politico Nukes 'Biden Business Dealings' Lie
    Politico Nukes ‘Biden Business Dealings’ Lie

    While President Joe Biden has repeatedly insisted he has nothing to do with his family’s business dealings – going so far as to say he’s never so much as discussed them with relatives, a new report from Politico completely destroys that lie.

    Illustration by Bill Kuchman/POLITICO (source images via AP, Getty Images, iStock)

    “I have never discussed, with my son or my brother or with anyone else, anything having to do with their businesses. Period,” said Biden. “

    “And what I will do is the same thing we did in our administration. There will be an absolute wall between personal and private [business interests] and the government. There wasn’t any hint of scandal at all when we were there. And I’m going to propose the same kind of strict, strict rules. That’s why I never talked with my son or my brother or anyone else — even distant family — about their business interests. Period.“

    As Politico notes, Joe Biden’s political journey, stretching back to his first Senate bid, has always been a family affair. His first campaign was significantly supported by his family, setting a precedent for how his personal and professional lives would intertwine. Throughout his career, Biden’s relatives have not only been a staple in his campaigns but have also engaged in business ventures that at times involved his political patrons, converting some business partners into campaign supporters.

    This longstanding blend of family, business, and politics has made it an absurd notion that Biden has distanced himself from the actions and ventures of his relatives, particularly his son Hunter Biden and his brother Jim Biden, whose foreign business dealings have been a continual source of controversy.

    Meanwhile…

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    What’s more, for years, Joe Biden shared key professional services with his family members: a bookkeeper with his son and a personal lawyer with his brother. This overlap extends beyond service providers to the very core of his advisory circle. Many of Biden’s closest staffers and advisers have, at different times, doubled as business associates for his relatives. These overlaps suggest an all-in-family approach that has persisted despite Biden’s assertions that he has kept a professional distance from his family’s business dealings.

    Investigations and Ethical Questions

    Particularly revealing is the hiring of the former head of Biden’s Secret Service detail by Jim Biden to investigate a Chinese executive, Patrick Ho, who Hunter Biden was doing business with in 2017. Despite claims of maintaining a professional distance, this move, ahead of a significant business meeting in Hong Kong, highlights how deeply enmeshed personal and professional lines can become. Jim Biden’s assertion during his February impeachment inquiry interview that he did not discuss business specifics with Hunter during the trip only adds layers to the opaque nature of the family’s business dealings.

    “10 for the Big Guy”

    One phrase found in a series of alleged emails linked to Hunter Biden — “10 for the big guy” — has become a focal point of controversy, drawing scrutiny to the business dealings of the president’s son and the implications for Biden. These emails, reportedly related to Hunter Biden’s interactions with the Chinese energy conglomerate CEFC, have raised questions about potential influence peddling and conflicts of interest.

    This email came to light as part of a larger trove of data discovered on a laptop that Hunter Biden left at a Delaware repair shop and never retrieved – and was recently entered into evidence as authentic by federal prosecutors during Hunter Biden’s ongoing trial for a federal firearms offense.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/09/2024 – 19:15

  • Will Hunter Take The Stand? He May Want To Think Twice Before Checking That Box
    Will Hunter Take The Stand? He May Want To Think Twice Before Checking That Box

    Authored by Jonathan Turley via jonathanturley.org,

    This weekend, the Hunter Biden team is reportedly debating whether to have him take the stand on Monday, a move rife with risk. Most criminal defendants avoid such appearances given the potential damage of a withering cross examination. Those risks were evident in the recent testimony of Hunter’s daughter, Naomi, which backfired badly on key points.

    I have sometimes been in the minority among defense attorneys and legal commentators on this question. In celebrity trials, a jury can feel alienated or even disrespected by a defendant not taking the stand. That was the case, in my view, with Martha Stewart. When a defendant brings forth a host of others to speak for him or her, the refusal to testify can become more glaring and concerning.

    Hunter Biden is in that position. He has had a host of relatives testify, including his daughter Naomi. When you put your daughter on the stand and subject her to a tough cross examination, many jurors can wonder how you can stay safely behind the defendant’s table.

    Yet, Naomi’s testimony is precisely why defense counsel are risk adverse on the question. She gave moving testimony on her love for her father and his struggle with addiction. However, her attempt to establish that Hunter was not using drugs at the time of his gun purchase fell apart on cross examination.  She testified that she was thrilled during this period with how “healthy” and clean her father appeared: “He seemed like the clearest I had seen him since my uncle died…I told him I was so proud of him and I was proud to be able to introduce Peter to him.”

    Prosecutors showed her text messages that told a different story. In some, Naomi appears alarmed by her father’s conduct and lack of responses. On October 18, for example, she texted “I’m sorry daddy, I can’t take this, I don’t know what to say.” That message coincides with messages from Hunter seeking to score drugs from a guy named Mookie and stating that he was doing crack in a car. In other messages, Naomi complains that he was not responding. She finally received a response when, at 2 a.m, Hunter asked her to have her boyfriend drop off keys to a truck for him in Manhattan. Naomi was asked if she saw the drug residue or paraphernalia in the truck.

    Any cross examination would focus less on Naomi than it would on Mookie.

    Any decision to put Hunter on the stand is obviously dependent on your defense strategy. As I have previously written, all of the defenses suggested by Abby Lowell in his opening argument collapsed within two days. That includes the suggestion that someone else checked the box on the form denying that Hunter was using drugs. These claims seem so unbelievable and unsupported that they might insult a jury. However, the real strategy in this open-and-shut case appears to be simple jury nullification. The defense is trying to get one or more jurors to ignore the law and the evidence to acquit Biden.

    Nullification efforts in the case appear to be a combination of both political and social association. First and foremost, this is Bidentown. It is the hometown of President Joe Biden and voted overwhelmingly for him in past elections. It is the opposite of the Manhattan trial of former President Donald Trump. This is the best possible jury pool for a Biden.

    Second, all of the jurors testified to knowing someone with drug problems. Hunter has written moving accounts of his struggle with addiction. Some jurors may resist convicting someone who has seemingly overcome the scourge of addiction.

    So, if this is a nullification strategy, does Hunter testifying help or hurt? The answer is that it could seal the deal or shatter it with jurors. Hunter will make a good witness on his struggle to overcome drugs and alcohol abuse. He can claim little or no memory of the gun store purchase. Hearing from him directly can establish a connection, even a bond, with jurors that could reinforce a nullification vote.

    However, it will also subject him to cross examination by prosecutors who have been lethal in their well-planned and well-executed case. They can delve into his texts and the later intervention by his family to deal with his self-destructive lifestyle. He also faces the potential of triggering new criminal offenses through perjury.

    That latter concern is particularly real after the formal referral of three House committees to Attorney General Merrick Garland. Hunter is accused of lying to Congress in his recent testimony on key issues under investigation. While many expect Garland to ignore the referral to protect the President and his family, the allegations are compelling and the Justice Department has previously prosecuted individuals in cases with far less support. This would appear a relatively easy perjury prosecution, but the politics may be insurmountable for Garland.

    Most attorneys would advise Hunter to remain behind the defense table and not take the stand. After all, this is a great jury rendering a verdict on a Biden in Bidentown with the First Lady seated behind him for much of the trial. They just need one. The risk of testimony is that Hunter could burst into flames on the stand and torch any chance to nullify the crime.

    We will know soon. However, if Hunter checks this box and testifies, it is the one decision that he will not be able to blame on others.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/09/2024 – 18:40

  • Bird Flu Triggers Supply Chain Snarls In Dairy Industry As "Farmers Increasingly Culled Cows" 
    Bird Flu Triggers Supply Chain Snarls In Dairy Industry As “Farmers Increasingly Culled Cows” 

    The latest US Department of Agriculture data shows bird flu has infected at least 80 dairy herds across ten states. There are growing concerns about rising cow mortalities from the virus and the risk of farmers culling cows to stop the spread. This could ignite economic stress across the farm belt and unleash a supply shock. 

    Reuters spoke with a USDA spokesperson who was aware of H5N1 virus-related deaths among cow herds but said that most cows recovered. No official figures have been provided on the number of cow mortalities in South Dakota, Michigan, Texas, Ohio, and Colorado. 

    Here’s more on the cow deaths: 

    In South Dakota, a 1,700-cow dairy sent a dozen of the animals to slaughter after they did not recover from the virus, and killed another dozen that contracted secondary infections, said Russ Daly, a professor with South Dakota State University and veterinarian for the state extension office who spoke with the farm.

    “You get sick cows from one disease, then that creates a domino effect for other things, like routine pneumonia and digestive issues,” Daly said.

    A farm in Michigan killed about 10% of its 200 infected cows after they too failed to recover from the virus, said Phil Durst, an educator with Michigan State University Extension who spoke with that farm.

    Michigan has more confirmed infections in cattle than any state as well as two of three confirmed cases of US dairy workers who contracted bird flu.

    In Colorado, some dairies reported culling cows with avian flu because they did not return to milk production, said Olga Robak, spokesperson for the state Department of Agriculture.

    Ohio Department of Agriculture spokesperson Meghan Harshbarger said infected cows have died in Ohio and other affected states, mostly due to secondary infections.

    The Texas Animal Health Commission also confirmed that cows have died from secondary infections at some dairy operations with avian flu outbreaks.

    Officials could not provide figures for the number of statewide cow mortalities.

    New Mexico’s state veterinarian, Samantha Uhrig, said farmers increasingly culled cows due to decreased milk production early in the outbreak, before the US even confirmed bird flu was infecting cattle. Culling decreased as farmers learned that most cows gradually recovered, she said. -Reuters 

    Last month, the USDA informed farmers lactating dairy cattle are not eligible for interstate transportation, which has snarled the dairy supply chain. 

    Southern dairy farms that raise baby calves from more northern states until they’re ready to be returned and milked have been impacted the most by delays in shipping when a herd tests positive for the virus, according to Joe Armstrong, a professor of cattle production at the University of Minnesota.

    “Some of these systems are built to constantly move animals, and if you can’t move them, you run out of space really fast,” Armstrong said. “This is big money.” –Bloomberg

    Shipping delays could intensify following the USDA’s announcement of expanded testing for dairy cows, which is likely to reveal more infections.

    “What’s clear is this disease has really slowed down the interstate movement of cattle,” Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-NM) told Bloomberg’s Skye Witley. 

    Traders are watching rising milk futures in Chicago, up more 27% since early April.

    Here’s a larger timeframe for milk futures. 

    The dairy industry could be in the beginning stages of a mess as farmers cull cows and supply chains become snarled due to bird flu.

    One major concern is whether the virus jumps from dairy to beef cows. If that’s the case, then culling beef cows to stop the spread could catapult retail prices even higher because the nation’s total herd population has collapsed to 1951 levels.

    Can you guess which billionaire has been advocating to ban cow farts?

    He also has fake meat to sell.

    Meanwhile…

    As we noted days ago, if the government starts claiming that culling the nation’s dairy and beef cows is the only way to combat bird flu, it will raise alarm bells that there might be an underlying agenda at play. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/09/2024 – 18:05

  • It's Time To Investigate The Virginia Retirement System
    It’s Time To Investigate The Virginia Retirement System

    Authored by Thomas Jones via RealClear Wire,

    Documents obtained by the American Accountability Foundation have revealed that Virginia retirees’ pension funds are being used to implement a far-left agenda. This is an outrageous betrayal. Pension fund managers should be focused on maximizing returns, not on pursuing ideological goals.

    The Virginia Retirement System (VRS), a state agency that manages the pensions of hundreds of thousands of state residents, holds voting rights at the annual shareholder meetings of companies in which they are invested.

    Typically, voting at these meetings focuses on shareholder resolutions related to furthering good corporate governance practices and maximizing returns for shareholders. But these shareholder meetings have become ideological battlefields, as woke liberal groups (left-wing nonprofits, unions, progressive state treasurers, and others) have adopted a strategy of purchasing just enough stock in big corporations to put forward proposals of their own geared toward imposing their leftist Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) vision. Sadly, on this battlefield, the bureaucrats at VRS are fighting alongside the woke Left.

    AAF’s review of proxy votes cast by VRS or its asset managers since 2022 found 74 votes supporting extreme leftist policies such as racial and gender pay-gap reports, efforts to defund conservative candidates and pro-business trade associations, radical climate policy, and pro-abortion initiatives.

    Here are just a few examples:

    • On May 24, 2023, VRS, advised by proxy advisor ISS, voted for Proposal 13 at Amazon, which called for additional reporting on gender and racial pay gaps at the company. This type of request for a “report” is a tactic used often by the Left to shame and intimidate corporations into adopting its preferred policies – in this case, racial and gender quotas. The proposal, brought forward by Arjuna Capital, chastised Amazon for “alleged unfair pay and working conditions” and claimed that “diversity in leadership is linked to superior stock performance and return on equity.” The proposal noted that “minorities represent 70 percent of Amazon’s workforce and 34 percent of leadership. Women represent 45 percent of the workforce and 23 percent of leadership.”
    • On May 31, 2023, VRS, advised by ISS, voted in favor of a resolution at Meta Platforms that called for a “report on data privacy regarding reproductive healthcare.” The resolution derided the Supreme Court’s 2022 Dobbs decision as “the revocation of the constitutional right to an abortion” and requested that Meta “issue a public report assessing the feasibility of diminishing the extent that the Company will be a target of abortion-related law enforcement requests.”
    • At the May 2022 annual shareholder meeting of supermajor oil and gas company Shell PLC, VRS’s investment manager, Lansdowne Partners, voted for a resolution calling for Shell to set and publish emissions targets in line with the Paris Climate Agreement. This is a stunning betrayal of the nearly 200,000 Virginians who depend on energy jobs for their livelihoods. But the resolution didn’t just affect the energy industry itself—it aimed to limit use of energy by everyone, requesting that Shell adopt emissions-reduction targets that apply not only to the company’s operations but also to the end use of its energy products.

    Laws and regulations covering racial issues, gender issues, abortion, and the environment should be decided by American voters – not by leftist activists and faceless corporate bureaucrats. But these are the forces that have come to be known as the ESG movement. They seek to circumvent our constitutional system of government in order to impose a far-left agenda that goes against the interests and values of the American people.

    The Virginia Retirement System’s complicity in this disgraceful scheme should be investigated fully and corrected immediately.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/09/2024 – 17:30

  • Warren Buffett Controls 3% Of Treasury Bill Market, More Than "International Organizations, Stablecoin Issuers …" 
    Warren Buffett Controls 3% Of Treasury Bill Market, More Than “International Organizations, Stablecoin Issuers …” 

    Berkshire Hathaway has struggled to find sizable deals in recent quarters, leaving Warren Buffett sitting on a mountain of cash and cash equivalents. According to JPMorgan analysts, Buffett now wields control over a staggering 3% of the entire US Treasury Bill market.

    At Berkshire’s annual meeting in May, Buffett told the audience, “It’s a fair assumption” that its cash pile would exceed $200 billion at the end of this quarter amid the dearth of big-ticket deals due to very few opportunities. 

    Buffet’s growing cash and or cash equivalents stockpiles intrigued fixed-income analysts at JPM, including a team led by Teresa Ho, who wrote in a recent note to clients that Berkshire Hathaway keeps excess cash primarily invested in T-bills. 

    “Over the years, their T-bill position has grown so large that, as of March-end, it owned $158bn in T-bills, comprising 3% of the market,” Ho said. 

    She continued, “Berkshire Hathaway currently holds more T-bills than international organizations, stablecoin issuers, offshore MMFs, or LGIPs.” 

    Berkshire Hathaway’s current cash position is about 17.5%, which is in line with its long-term average when measured against the firm’s total assets. Since 1997, the firm has kept cash on its balance sheet at an average of 13%. 

    Current figures from Bloomberg show Berkshire’s cash and cash equivalents total $188 billion. 

    “We’d love to spend it, but we won’t spend unless we think there’s really something that has very little risk and can make us a lot of money,” Buffett said at last month’s annual meeting. 

    Buffett and his companies are cautious about finding deals as the high-for-longer interest rate environment unfolds, especially after Friday’s screaming hot payrolls data forced Citi to shift its first rate cut forecast from July to September. 

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    Fed swaps are only pricing in 1.58 cuts through the end of the year. 

    The absence of deals will only mean Berkshire’s giant cash and cash equivalents pile will continue growing until valuations become more attractive. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/09/2024 – 16:55

  • Right-Wing Tsunami: France "Stunned" After Macron Announces Snap Elections Following Crushing Defeat In European Parliament Vote
    Right-Wing Tsunami: France “Stunned” After Macron Announces Snap Elections Following Crushing Defeat In European Parliament Vote

    Update (4:20pm ET):

    Following a historic loss to Marine Le Pen’s right-wing party in European elections on Sunday, French President Emmanuel Macron said he is dissolving the French parliament.

    Macron said France will hold new elections on June 30 and July 7, a high-stakes maneuver that the WSJ said “stunned” the nation after projections based on early ballot counts came in for Sunday’s elections for the European Parliament. The projections showed National Rally garnering around 31% of the vote, twice the support for Macron’s Renew Party.

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    “This is a serious, weighty decision, but above all it’s an act of trust,” Macron said. “Confidence in you, confidence in the ability of the French people to make the right choice for themselves and for future generations.”

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    National Rally leader Jordan Bardella said Sunday’s results marked an “unprecedented rout for the powers that be,” adding that it was “day-one of the post-Macron era.”

    Macron’s decision to call parliamentary elections opens the door for his party, which is deeply unpopular at the moment, to shed even more seats to rival parties in France’s National Assembly, the country’s lower house of Parliament.

    If that occurs, Macron could be forced to appoint a prime minister from another party, such as the center-right Les Républicains, in a power-sharing arrangement known in France as a “cohabitation.”

    “A dissolution means a cohabitation,” said Alain Duhamel, a prominent political analyst.

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    The shocking news in France comes after Europe’s right wing parties put on a show of strength in this weekend’s EU elections, which also reinforced German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s position lagging two rival parties.

    Sunday’s results still appeared to leave the mainstream pro-EU parties with a lock on power in Brussels, if only for the time being. The center-right EU political grouping that now leads the bloc looked set to win the most seats in the European Parliament, boosting European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s hopes of keeping her job for a second term. She has forged a close working relationship with the Biden administration.

    Still, France’s far-right opposition party National Rally looked set to be among the pan-European election’s biggest winners. Marine Le Pen’s party is on target to become the largest single party in the European Parliament. Projections based on early ballot counts on Sunday evening suggested National Rally had gained roughly 31% of the vote, twice the support for Macron’s Renew Party.

    After the French results, Macron announced he was dissolving parliament to call fresh elections. His party already lacked a majority in the National Assembly. The first round of the elections will take place June 30, followed by a second on July 7, Macron said.

    As reported earlier, the Social Democratic Party of German chancellor Scholz also apparently faced a drubbing. According to national exit polls, it was running third behind the far-right Alternative for Germany and the clear winner, Germany’s opposition center-right alliance.

    The elections, held from Thursday through Sunday, were for the 720 members of the European Parliament. Up to 370 million voters were eligible according to EU figures, although turnout in the elections is usually modest. While the European Parliament’s main powers are to approve or amend EU rules, laws and trade deals, the twice-decade vote offers a potent indicator of Europe’s political mood. The legislature also gets to approve the EU’s new leadership team.

    As the WSJ notes, “Sunday’s results point to trouble for the EU leadership’s ability to pursue its environmental goals and indicate that pressure will mount to tighten migration rules under right-wing pressure. The vote is also likely to give a greater voice—at least within the parliament—to nationalist and left-wing critics of EU support for Ukraine.”

    Despite pro-EU parties’ setbacks, they appeared to hold enough seats to cobble together a majority of lawmakers to approve their priorities. An assessment from exit poll-aggregator Europe Elects suggested that center-right, centrist and center-left political blocs would secure 413 seats in the new parliament, a clear majority. Right-wing nationalist parties look set to secure at least 160 votes.

    While the results push European politics to the right, divisions among the nationalist and far-right EU parties are likely to blunt the impact of their gains. Some right-wing leaders have called for an alliance across the movement, but that appears unlikely.

    Meanwhile, markets are not too happy: European bonds are down as are European futures, while according to Macquarie, the Euro faces downside risks after latest developments from parliamentary elections at the weekend,

    “The bottom line is that while political uncertainty may mount as an issue in the US this summer, we didn’t discount that the same will happen in Europe too,” said Thierry Wizman, strategist in New York, who had flagged deepening political uncertainty in Europe as an “underappreciated risk” to markets three weeks ago

    “Between this, anticipation of the National Assembly election in France, after which the National Rally could get to install their own Prime Minister, and potentially high CPI in the US, we’re sticking to our view that EUR/USD could get to 1.05 and stay around there.”

    * * *

    Earlier

    As we await the results from the European Parliament vote (previewed here), the exit polls from Germany are already in and they are a disaster for both the alliance of French president Macron, who was steamrolled by Marine Le Pen, and for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats, which crashed to their worst-ever result in European Parliament elections Sunday, as conservative and right-wing parties soared across the old continent, a result which will help tilt the European parliament further towards a more anti-immigration and anti-green stance.

    According to preliminary results from five countries, right-wing parties are estimated to have won at least 33 of the 174 seats available in Austria, Cyprus, Germany, Greece and the Netherlands, according to official exit polls from those countries, up from 19 seats at the last election in 2019. And – as the ultraliberal FT admits – “the surge, at the expense of liberal and Green parties, would complicate European commission president Ursula von der Leyen’s bid for a second term as head of the EU’s executive.”

    In Germany, Chancellor Scholz’s Social Democrats crashed to their worst-ever result, falling to third place with 14% of the vote behind the populist and nationalist Alternative for Germany, which has become the second-largest German party in the European Parliament with 16.4%. The conservative CDU/CSU alliance was on course for a comfortable win with 29.6%, according to an exit poll Sunday from public broadcaster ARD. The other two parties in Scholz’s ruling alliance — the Greens and the Free Democrats — got 12% and 5% respectively.

    As reported overnight, the German exit polls are among the first results from the European election, which started Thursday and culminates Sunday, and will determine the make-up of the bloc’s legislative assembly. The outcome will establish which leaders have the most leverage to claim the EU’s top jobs, including the presidents of the European Commission and the European Council.

    The catastrophic showing for Scholz’s coalition underscores the increasing difficulty the German government faces in leading European policy. Support for Scholz’s ruling alliance in Berlin has dropped to record lows in recent months, with the three parties’ combined support currently around 35%, down from more than 50% in the 2021 federal election.

    As Bloomberg reports, CDU General Secretary Carsten Linnemann questioned whether Scholz retains the authority to lead the country and blamed the ruling coalition’s policies for the rise of the AfD. “He was the one on the election posters so really he should submit to a vote of confidence,” Linnemann said.

    The AfD managed to post substantial gains despite experiencing a series of setbacks in recent weeks involving bribery and spying scandals. The Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht, or BSW, which she co-founded in January after splitting from the Left party, got 5.7%.

    Kevin Kuehnert, the SPD general secretary, said the party won’t be seeking “scapegoats” and insisted that it had been the right decision to make Scholz a central figure in the election campaign despite his relatively low approval rating.

    “For us this is an extremely bitter result,” Kuehnert said in an interview with ARD. “We will have to look at where we weren’t good in our mobilization,” he added. “The promise now is that we’ll fight back from this.”

    Kuehnert said the priority for the coalition in coming weeks is to broker an agreement on next year’s budget, which has been another source of infighting in the three-party alliance.

    Amid continued losses for the establishment, right-wing and conservative parties in Europe are slated to pick up more seats compared with the last election five years ago, as migration swings to the top of the political agenda, while the EU’s ambitious climate goals may face greater hurdles.

    Still, at the EU level, centrist parties on the left and right are due to maintain their grip on the majority. That means a degree of continuity on key policies at a time of immense geopolitical uncertainty with Russia’s war on Ukraine raging to the east and China becoming ever more assertive.

    As further discussed overnight, the EU is also confronting challenges including how to maintain fiscal sustainability while investing in a greener future, boosting the competitiveness of European manufacturing and strengthening defense capabilities amid the prospect of Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency, which could impact everything from trade to environment policy.

    Germany’s next national vote is due in the fall of next year. The ruling parties are expected to fare just as poorly in their next major electoral test — three regional ballots in September in the eastern states of Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg with the AfD is leading in the polls in the three states, but is unlikely to get into government as all other parties have ruled out joining it in coalition.

    In the Netherlands, Dutch conservative Geert Wilders notched significant gains on Thursday, though fell short of winning the most Dutch seats in the European Parliament. That victory was claimed by a coalition of left-wing parties.

    In perhaps the biggest shock of all, however, the French right-wing has inflicted a staggering defeat on the Macron alliance: with Le Pen’s gathering 32-33% of the vote to Macron group’s 15% according to pollsters.

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    According to AFP, voter turnout in France was up two points as of 5pm, with 45.26% of eligible voters casting ballots compared with 43.29% in 2019. The turnout for EU elections is generally low, but the last elections in 2019 showed the first uptick in 30 years with a turnout of 50.7 percent.

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    In Austria, the right-wing, national-conservative anti-immigrant Freedom Party was in the lead with an estimated 27 percent, Austrian national broadcaster ORF said. If the number is confirmed later Sunday, it would be the first time the OFP wins the European Parliament election in Austria.

    The conservative People’s Party (OVP) and the Social Democrats (SPO) are currently too close to call, it said, estimated to have raked in 23.5 percent and 23 percent of the votes respectively.

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    Finally in Spain, more of the same anti-establishment, anti-liberal, anti-immigrant tsunami:

    • *SPAIN’S OPPOSITION CONSERVATIVES LEAD IN EU VOTE: EXIT POLL

    About 360 million people are eligible to vote for the 720 lawmakers who will serve in the EU assembly for the next five years, 96 of them from Germany. A majority of the 27 member nations are holding their ballots on Sunday, with results due to trickle in throughout the evening. Results from France are due after 8 p.m. local time.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/09/2024 – 16:25

  • Did Roaring Kitty Just Kill The Bull Market?
    Did Roaring Kitty Just Kill The Bull Market?

    Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

    My intuition is telling me this is it. This is the end of the bull market.

    Before I get into my reasoning, I want to remind my readers that this is not financial advice, and I have been wrong about the market being overdue for a pullback over the last 2 1/2 years since interest rates have started to rise.

    About a year ago, I corrected myself and began a series of mea culpas, explaining that it was my timing that was off, but also that I still believed the mathematics of 5.5% interest rates were all but a guarantee that the market and other financial assets, including things like real estate and commodities, at some point would have to deflate.

    I didn’t set out this past weekend with premeditated intentions of writing an article about why I think the market has peaked for the time being. Rather, it was a string of events that took place over the last 48 to 72 hours that have my spider senses tingling.

    I think the shark has been jumped, the tab has come due, and the American consumer, as well as the retail investor, are completely exasperated, out of options, and out of ideas. Here’s my reasoning.

    It was just a day or two ago that I wrote about Nvidia and why I thought it had become a disproportionately large risk to the overall market. The stock now represents 6.5% of the S&P 500, an astronomical amount for one name to make up a 500-name index, and appears to be hitting peak levels of hysteria, as evidenced by CEO Jensen Huang signing autographs on the breasts of women at computer shows.

    On top of Nvidia’s mind-numbing S&P concentration, single-handedly driving broader market moves, I raised the question of whether or not the growth that the market expects from the company could be far overshooting the company’s actual trajectory in years to come, despite the fact that artificial intelligence will likely remain in a secular bull market for years to come.

    No sooner did I publish that article than all eyes turned to “Roaring Kitty” on Friday.

    For those unfamiliar with Roaring Kitty, also known as Keith Gill, he is the man that stoked the flames of excitement with GameStop’s astronomical short squeeze higher some years back, and the man who profited the most handsomely — about $40 million to $50 million in the first run up — as a result.

    He has become somewhat of a legend among retail investors and saw his fellowship increase exponentially in the days, weeks, months, and years after the initial GameStop squeeze higher. They even made a movie out of his story, called Dumb Money, with Paul Dano in the starring role.

    At this blog and at QTR central, we have no beef with Gill. I though the movie Dumb Money was great and I generally find any type of anomaly in the system that temporarily shifts the power back to the people interesting (hence my curiosity around bitcoin). And I generally root for any story that takes away from Cathie Wood’s CNBC airtime.

    GameStop stock has been bubbling higher over the last couple of weeks, making retail investors wonder whether a repeat of history—and subsequently their chance of getting rich—is possible again. Hell, on Thursday night last week, GameStop shares had reached all the way into the $60 range before it was announced Friday morning that the company would be selling stock to raise cash at the company’s inflated prices.

    As usual, price becomes a rationing mechanism, and GameStop is getting the deal of the century by selling into this retail euphoria. The company added more supply to the market and GameStop wound up finishing the day on Friday at $28.

    But the last few runs up in GameStop haven’t stopped roaring Kitty from taking what used to be around a $50 million bankroll and parlaying it into what appears to be a nearly quarter-of-a-billion-dollar bankroll.

    It’s difficult to try and figure out how he could have amassed such wealth without trading in the name after recently reactivating himself on his Twitter account and posting this Tweet-gone-round-the-world.

     

    One thing driving the euphoria in GameStop shares heading into Friday was the expectation that Gill might do something crazy on his live stream. Would he come out and buy another couple million shares live? Would he introduce some grand plan that would help shares skyrocket even higher and punish shorts even further? Is it possible he would exercise his options live on the air, leading to the entire stock market breaking? People were waiting with bated breath to see what his plan was.

    But while everybody was waiting for Gill to answer this question, reality was already setting in with GameStop shares. The company’s issuance of new stock was diluting existing investors and making it more difficult for the stock to move higher.

    As the stock percolated around the $30 to $35 level before the live stream began, a queue of interested investors, analysts, and market participants lined up to see what Gill had to say. By the time he went live at about 12:20 Eastern time on Friday, there were over 600,000 people watching his live stream.

    The format was reminiscent of the original live stream Gill used to do before the first GameStop run-up: the screen was structured in the same way, he poured himself a beer, he gave everybody a look at his portfolio holdings, and he ran back a half-assed thesis on why he thinks GameStop could turn around its business for the long term.

    It was what he didn’t do that made his appearance a “sell the news” event. He didn’t say anything unexpected, he didn’t offer up a war cry or a price target, nor did he reveal some intricate trickery to try to further stick it to “the man” in the hedge fund industry. The appearance was devoid of hype, devoid of actual analysis, and uninteresting enough that the number of live viewers started to dwindle as quickly as 10 or 20 minutes into it.

    I’m not saying there won’t be an audience for Gill in the future, because there will be. And chances are, it’ll always be a multiple of my outreach. His stream sits at the intersection of the stock market, the roulette table, a late night Mountain Dew fueled Dungeons and Dragons game and the underdog plots of the movies Rudy and Rocky combined. And there’s always going to be an audience for that.

    But there was something about watching the number of viewers on his stream dwindle in real-time that caused a thought to wash over me with a calm resolve as though I had been a Buddhist monk in seclusion, meditating about it for years:

    “If this isn’t the absolute peak of this market cycle, I don’t know what is.”

    Leading into the stream, I was taken back by how 600,000 people could be watching.

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    The enormity of the number of people tuning in to watch somebody host their own version of stock-market-ComicCon was fascinating to me.

    On one hand, I loved it because it was probably 10 times the amount of viewership CNBC got at any point during the day Friday, which furthers my long-held belief that the mainstream financial media is generally useless and can be easily replaced, but on the other, I started to wonder if this could be the biggest “sell the news” event in retail investor history.

    If one wanted to generalize and put a bow on the retail investor base from this most recent market cycle, there would be no better way to do it than the people that hang out on r/WallStreetBets.

    The Reddit crowd and the people who started the meme stock frenzy are the quintessential examples of the everyday investor for this particular market cycle. And, frankly, they’re outright amusing: they have a gripe with “the man”, they love a good underdog story, they’re slightly less informed than they probably should be but are doing their damndest to learn, they ridicule the industry’s norms and they’re self-deprecating — all of which, the last two especially, make them tough for me to hate.

    But they’re still arguably the lowest rung of retail money on the Wall Street totem pole — a designation I’m sure they’d embrace.

    I’m not trying to poke fun at them in the slightest, but only to make the objective point that its fair to think that once they have fired their last bullets or have psychologically capitulated, we could be seeing this lowest rung of market investors lead the charge of others out of the market. Once the necessity of raising cash and de-leveraging starts, it has a tendency to snowball as price pressure comes in. First it’s the meme stocks — and then its very easy to see how it can move to more serious names like Nvidia, which, again, I’ve said is basically the entire S&P 500. Here’s a post from r/WallStreetBets this weekend:

    Now, multiply that by a couple million investors who just got trounced by GameStop to end last week.

    I couldn’t quite put my finger on what felt different about this last GameStop run-up, but now I know.

    While the first squeeze higher in the name was fueled by a tidal wave of excess liquidity and downtime as a result of the Covid pandemic, the latest run-up felt like one last desperate attempt to chase losses.

    While the first run-up felt like it may have been motivated to make some type of statement against Wall Street, however misguided, this second run-up feels like the sole purpose is to try for everybody to repeat the rare success that Gill himself had during the first run-up.

    This time around, it feels as though hundreds of thousands, or millions, of retail investors are simply hoping that history will repeat itself and they will be positioned at the right place at the right time for one last bite of the apple.

    Put simply, as is the case when trying to relive any great moments of days past, it simply isn’t the same the second time around.

    And in the wreckage of the failed experiment this time around, people are not going to be replete and flush with cash like they were at the end of Covid. As I have consistently pointed out on this blog, consumer credit and personal savings metrics look nothing short of atrocious, with consumer credit ballooning to all-time highs and personal savings hitting lows.

    Source: Zero Hedge

    And as this below chart about retail sales indicates, the American consumer is simply tapped out.

    There is a huge difference between taking a wildcard shot on GameStop and still having a job or savings to fall back on and firing your last bullets of desperation with literally no other plan and no other option for replacing the capital destroyed as a result.

    The entire idea that short sellers were repressing the company to begin with and that manipulating GameStop stock higher was somehow going to save the company was partially misguided to begin with. Now, in order for GameStop to save itself as a result of its ballooning stock price, it has to issue shares and dilute holders.

    The more shares it issues, the tougher the squeeze becomes, and it soon becomes very clear that “investors” following Roaring Kitty now are one half of a Chinese finger trap that, at some point, they’re not going to be able to get out of.

    I can’t predict what’s going to happen to GameStop over the next few weeks: maybe we do some type of repeat of history, maybe Roaring Kitty becomes a billionaire. But extrapolated over a longer period of time than a couple weeks, reality, mathematics, and the macroeconomic environment are going to take hold and eventual gains for those who hold will, in my opinion, be limited.

    There’s always ways out of bear markets. It used to just be recession and then eventual growth in productivity. Nowadays it’s excessive money printing. I’m not saying we’re heading into a Great Depression that will last decades. But its foolish to think there won’t be any rough road ahead for markets. And Friday’s fiasco was a warning sign, in my opinion.

    In fact, Friday was a shining beacon at the very peak of the mountaintop for the market if you ask me. What better way to justify attempting to call a short-term market top than watching those who can least afford it shell out what little cash they have left? When you combine this with the backdrop of pure euphoria in Nvidia, the one stock that is seemingly driving the market by itself, combined with lackluster retail sales data, rising delinquencies, defaults, supply and demand in the housing market starting to rebalance, and the fact that any cuts to rates to “save” a crash will likely take 18 to 24 months to work their way through the system – you have, in my opinion, the best case yet for arguing the worst is yet to come.

    Now read:

    QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. These positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/09/2024 – 16:20

  • Israel's Gantz Quits Coalition Government, Charges Netanyahu With Making "Total Victory Impossible"
    Israel’s Gantz Quits Coalition Government, Charges Netanyahu With Making “Total Victory Impossible”

    Israeli opposition leader Benny Gantz on Sunday announced that he is quitting Israel’s emergency government under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. 

    In a statement he blamed Netanyahu for making “total victory impossible” and further accused him of neglecting achieving the release of the remaining hostages. Gantz blasted Netanyahu and urged him to prioritize returning the hostages above his own “political survival”. Netanyahu’s coalition still holds a 64-member majority in the Knesset, and won’t immediately fall apart, but this is expected to unleash destabilization toward an unclear outcome.

    Gantz was initially expected to announce his departure Saturday, but postponed it amid news of the successful IDF hostage recovery operation in central Gaza, which resulted in the return of four Israelis in good health.

    Below are Gantz’s words wherein he called on other coalition leaders as well as members of the Knesset to join him in forming a new government, and to hold new future elections: 

    Exiting the coalition, National Unity chairman Benny Gantz calls on all members of the Knesset “who understand where we are going” to join forces with him and “obey the command of your conscience,” particularly Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.

    “Yoav, we have known each other for many years. Even when there were tensions between us, I always respected and appreciated you. In this war – I learned to appreciate you even more,” he says of his now-erstwhile war cabinet colleague.

    “You are a brave and determined leader and above all – a patriot. At this time, leadership and courage are not only saying what is right – but doing what is right,” he adds.

    He tells the nation he is not a conman and nor is he a politician who will put his political career above the needs of the state. “I will promise you one thing: I’m prepared to die for your children,” he says. “My colleagues and will always stand up and be counted when the country needs us… at any political price. I risked my life for the state in the line of fire dozens of times,” he says, and vows he won’t be deterred by political risk.

    Gantz also apologizes to the families of the hostages for failing to save their loved ones. “We did a lot [but] failed when it came to results,” he says. “We haven’t been able to get many of them back home yet. The responsibility is also mine.”

    Gantz has also previously punched hard against the more extreme members of Netanyahu’s coalition, calling them “fanatics”…”If you choose the path of fanatics and lead the entire nation to the abyss — we will be forced to quit the government,” he has warned in prior weeks leading up to Sunday.

    The centrist politician had already previously verbalized a plan to hold new elections by October, and three weeks ago he demanded in a provocative ultimatum that Netanyahu had until June 8 to present a clear strategic plan for the Gaza war.

    Gantz hopes to inspire a domino effect of departures, eventually collapsing the Netanyahu war government…

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    Huge anti-Netanyahu protests have continued in Tel Aviv and in front of government buildings and even Netanyahu’s residence, and have been led by hostage victims’ families. They are outraged there’s been lack of clarity or prioritization of getting the rest of the hostages home, also as truce negotiations with Hamas have all but collapsed.

    Gantz’s Tamano-Shata party has previously stated that “The 7th of October is a disaster that requires us to go back in order to receive the public’s trust, to establish a broad and stable unity government that can lead us safely in the face of the enormous challenges in security, the economy and, above all, in Israeli society. Submitting the bill now will allow us to bring it up in the current session.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/09/2024 – 15:45

  • It Leaked From A US-Backed Lab
    It Leaked From A US-Backed Lab

    Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

    For The New York Times, which started this whole fiasco dating from Feb. 27, 2020, with a podcast designed to drum up disease panic, it’s been a drip, drip, drip of truthiness ever since.

    A fortnight ago, the paper finally decided to report on vaccine injury from shots that vast majorities never needed and that stop neither infection nor transmission. And now, as of June 3, we have as decisive an article as one can imagine that shows that “a laboratory accident is the most parsimonious explanation of how the pandemic began.”

    “Whether the pandemic started on a lab bench or in a market stall, it is undeniable that U.S. federal funding helped to build an unprecedented collection of SARS-like viruses at the Wuhan institute, as well as contributing to research that enhanced them,” the article reads.

    “Advocates and funders of the institute’s research, including Dr. Fauci, should cooperate with the investigation to help identify and close the loopholes that allowed such dangerous work to occur. The world must not continue to bear the intolerable risks of research with the potential to cause pandemics.”

    The author is scientist Alina Chan of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. For purposes of documentation, let’s go through the points she makes.

    1. The SARS-like virus that caused the pandemic emerged in Wuhan, Hubei Province, the Chinese city where the world’s foremost research lab for SARS-like viruses is located.

    2. The year before the outbreak, the Wuhan Institute, working with U.S. partners, had proposed creating viruses with SARS‑CoV‑2’s defining feature.

    3. The Wuhan lab pursued this type of work under low biosafety conditions that could not have contained an airborne virus as infectious as SARS‑CoV‑2.

    4. The hypothesis that COVID-19 came from an animal at the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan is not supported by strong evidence.

    5. Key evidence that would be expected if the virus had emerged from the wildlife trade is still missing.

    Keep in mind that people saying exactly this from the very outset of the crisis were censored by social media at the behest of government agencies. Media personalities ridiculed this view. It was called a wild conspiracy theory, unworthy of any respectable and responsible person. This went on for three years, with brutal results. People lost large channels and social media followers and accounts. This ruined whole livelihoods.

    Now, here we are four years later, and we have the paper of record willing to admit that it was true all along.

    Yes, it is infuriating.

    Why does this matter? Because it is the turning point in the history of modern civilization. All the top public health officials had suspicions of this from the very outset. We know this from their own writings.

    Instead of opening a clear and open investigation, they pursued a different path: Deny the leak, roll out the supposed antidote (vaccine), use experimental technology, and lock down the world’s population to stop the spread so that the vaccine would get the credit for ending the pandemic.

    That’s the summary of what happened, based on my four years of research into this. In other words, to deflect blame, these people hatched an audacious plot to wreck rights and liberties the world over, in a futile attempt to prohibit natural exposure from ending the pathogenic wave (as always happened before). Instead, they would use the crisis to shove through approval of a technology that had never before received regulatory approval.

    This explains the disparagement of natural immunity, the absence of seroprevalence tests, the removal of repurposed generics from the market that could have helped people, the rise of censorship of any dissident scientists, and the complete absence of any serious research into early spread in the last quarter of 2019. It’s quite simply an astonishing plot of immense importance to the whole of the world, all stemming from an attempt to cover up a lab leak.

    That’s why the topic is important. This is not just a technical point. It is the first chapter of a wild and seemingly fictional novel of apocalyptic implications. The House subcommittee now investigating the public health response is barely scratching the surface in public, but behind the scenes, there is plenty of knowledge among investigators that there is much more going on.

    Here’s the key point. The national media does not want this discussed. The agencies don’t want this investigated. The tech companies that censored people all along do not want this considered. The Democrats certainly don’t want this subject pursued. Many Republicans don’t want to examine this in any detail.

    There is only one force at work that is pushing any of this forward, and that is public opinion, which, in turn, is fed by the handful of writers, researchers, scientists, moms, and many other grassroots people who correctly refuse to let this go.

    This is the only reason these hearings are happening. It is the only path to getting the truth.

    Of this, I’m thoroughly convinced. If we think the American people have already lost trust in public health and government, we haven’t seen anything yet. Once the whole story is out in the open, and we are headed in this direction, we’ll see a collapse without precedent.

    The timeline is going far too slowly. There is no excuse for why we are only getting clarity on the basics fully four years later. Meanwhile, there is absolutely no basis for approving any more funding for these agencies or biodefense research and no basis for approving any new treaties or agreements from the World Health Organization (WHO).

    Let’s not forget that it was the WHO that pushed hard for the world to copy the Chinese Communist Party in its crazy virus-control methods of violating human rights on a scale that should never have been tolerated in the West. And yet based on that advice, the United States, the UK, the European Union, and nearly every nation in the world adopted these policies, in contradiction to all laws and human rights.

    Out of nowhere, our Constitution and Bill of Rights were overridden by bureaucracies about which most Americans knew absolutely nothing.

    It boggles the mind that this happened, and we are still paying an egregious price in terms of inflation, learning loss, excess death, collapse of public health, expansion of government, pervasive censorship, and much more.

    It felt like martial law at the time, and it is not clear that this ever went away. We absolutely must know the truth. More than that, we need to repudiate every bit of the COVID-19 response, including the mandates to get a vaccine that was, in fact, never proven to be safe or effective.

    So yes, it matters that this virus likely leaked from a U.S.-funded lab. That was the beginning of the story. There is much more to it.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/09/2024 – 15:10

  • Yale Law Professor Shreds Trump Verdict, Cites "Serious" Constitutional Problems
    Yale Law Professor Shreds Trump Verdict, Cites “Serious” Constitutional Problems

    Yale Law Professor Jed Rubenfeld (whose wife is the “Tiger Mom“) says that Donald Trump’s ‘hush money’ conviction has serious legal issues, giving the former president multiple legal avenues to overturn the verdict.

    In his new show, Straight Down the Middle, Rubenfeld notes three obvious issues for Trump’s legal team to use;

    • Selective Prosecution: The possibility that the prosecution was driven by political motives against Trump, which if true, could constitute selective prosecution—a practice deemed unconstitutional as it involves targeting an individual for prosecution based on discriminatory reasons.

    • Vagueness of Charges: The indictment did not clearly specify the secondary crime Trump was accused of concealing through falsified business records, potentially violating the Sixth Amendment right of an accused to be informed of the nature and cause of the accusations against him.

    • Non-unanimous Jury Verdict: The judge’s instruction allowing the jury to be non-unanimous regarding the specifics of the secondary crime could infringe upon the constitutional requirement for unanimous verdicts in criminal prosecutions, challenging the fairness of the trial.

    “The indictment charged Trump with a two-step crime falsifying business records to conceal a second crime but never said what that second crime was,” he said, adding “Under the Sixth Amendment every criminal defendant has a right to know the charges against him.“

    He also suggested that Trump could sue Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg and other state actors in federal court and ask for an emergency temporary restraining order (TRO) against Judge Juan Merchan against entering a judgement of guilt.

    “You’re not a convicted felon because of a jury verdict. You’re not convicted unless the judge enters a judgment of guilt against you. The judge still has the power, as I told you before, to throw out that verdict and enter a judgment of acquittal. You are not convicted until the judge enters that judgment of guilt,” he said.

    “So what would this federal case be about? In this federal action, Trump would sue District Attorney Bragg and other state actors and ask the judge, the federal judge, for an emergency temporary restraining order halting Judge Merchan from entering that judgment of guilt until the federal courts have had an opportunity to review and rule on the serious constitutional arguments that exist here.”

    Watch:

    According to Rubenfeld, the Trump case is a “very bad look for this country,” adding that it’s “an especially bad look when the folks bring in the case and the judge deciding it are members of the opposing political party. And it’s an even worse look when the crime is so unclear that the state is hiding the ball about what the actual charges are right up through the trial and indeed into the trial.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/09/2024 – 14:35

  • From Bloody Biden Head To Code Pink 'War Criminal' Display, White House Protest Gets Heated
    From Bloody Biden Head To Code Pink ‘War Criminal’ Display, White House Protest Gets Heated

    Update (2000ET): Thousands of demonstrators surrounded the White House on Saturday to protest President Joe Biden’s response to Israel’s military strikes on Gaza.

    Chants of “Free Palestine!”, “Genocide is our red line”, and “Israel bombs, your taxes pay” could be heard from protesters – many of whom were bussed in from over two dozen cities.

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    Footage posted on X shows protesters getting rowdy as police attempted to make an arrest. As a crowd chants, “Let her go!” officers deployed pepper spray (at 17 seconds).

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    The woman was not arrested, and the cops were chased away, with one protester saying “get out of here motherfuckers.“

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    The demonstration featured a coalition of groups, including the Council on American Islamic Relations (CAIR) and Code Pink, which featured protesters dressed as Biden, Antony Blinken, Netanyahu, and Israel’s Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant.

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    It was a diverse crowd to say the least…

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    One pro-Hamas group even featured a Biden mask covered in blood.

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    Smoke bombs were lit:

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    And protesters threw bottles at a police officer, breaking into a chant of “Fascist!”

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    Oh, and there was a giant pride parade a few streets over.

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    *   *   *

    President Biden loves taxpayer-funded walls, except for former President Trump’s southern border wall. The elderly president has a beautiful taxpayer-funded wall around his beach home in exclusive Rehoboth Beach (a destination for rich liberals), where the poors and illegal aliens are not allowed. On the topic of walls this weekend, another taxpayer-funded wall was quietly erected around the White House in recent days.

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    Biden’s ‘White House Wall’ was erected on Friday ahead of ANSWER (Act Now to Stop War and End Racism), an anti-war group founded three days after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks, along with other activist groups, including CODEPINK and the Council on American Islamic Relations, who are all planning to surround the White House for Palestine on Saturday. 

    Photo: Craig Birchfield

    ANSWER posted on X numerous videos that show busses of pro-Palestinian protesters en route to Washington, DC, Saturday morning. 

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    “In preparation for the events this weekend in Washington, DC, that have the potential for large crowds to gather, additional public safety measures have been put in place near the White House complex,” a US Secret Service spokesperson told Reuters. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 06/09/2024 – 14:11

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