• Islamic State Alive And Well In Europe
  Islamic State Alive And Well In Europe

  Authored by Soeren Kern via The Gatestone Institute,

  The Islamic State has claimed responsibility for the November 29 jihadi attack at London Bridge, where a Pakistani Islamist stabbed two people to death and injured three others. The suspect, 28-year-old Usman Khan, a convicted terrorist, was subsequently shot dead by police.

  Khan, from Stoke-on-Trent, was convicted in February 2012 of plotting — on behalf of al-Qaeda — jihadi attacks against the London Stock Exchange and pubs in Stoke, in addition to setting up a jihadi training camp in Pakistan. He was sentenced to an “indeterminate sentence,” meaning that he could have been kept in prison beyond his original minimum term of eight years due to the danger he posed to national security.

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  In April 2013, however, the Court of Appeal revised that sentence with a fixed term of eight years. Khan, a student of the Islamist extremist Anjem Choudary, who co-founded the now banned Al-Muhajiroun group, was released from prison in December 2018, before the end of his sentence, after agreeing to wear an electronic tag.

  Khan’s early release and subsequent attack prompted a row between the Conservatives and Labour over the practice of reducing prison terms for violent offenders. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that people convicted of terrorism offenses should not be allowed out of prison early:

  “I think that the practice of automatic, early release where you cut a sentence in half and let really serious, violent offenders out early simply isn’t working, and you’ve some very good evidence of how that isn’t working, I am afraid, with this case.”

  Meanwhile, German authorities have arrested three suspected members of the Islamic State who were allegedly planning an attack with explosives and firearms in the Frankfurt Rhine-Main area. Prosecutors said that the men had wanted to kill as many “infidels” as possible.

  This plot — and others like it that have been foiled in recent months — comes as the Turkish government has started repatriating European jihadis who fought with Islamist groups in Syria and Iraq.

  Observers warn that while the Islamic State may have been “defeated” in the Middle East, it remains a potent danger to Europe.

  On November 12, more than 150 German police officers raided three apartments in Offenbach and arrested a 24-year-old Macedonian-German and two Turkish citizens aged 21 and 22. Frankfurt Prosecutor Nadja Niesen said that the 24-year-old was the main suspect:

  “The men are accused of plotting to commit a religiously-motivated crime in the Rhine-Main area by means of explosives or firearms to kill as many so-called infidels as possible.

  “We have evidence that the 24-year-old has already procured chemicals to make explosives and that he continued to try over the internet to obtain firearms. We have secured various materials and equipment for making explosives.”

  A week later, on November 19, German police arrested a 26-year-old Syrian jihadi at his apartment in the Schöneberg district of Berlin. The man, who had been in Germany since 2014, was employed at a Berlin primary school as a cleaner. He had been under surveillance for at least three months after German authorities received a tipoff from a “friendly foreign intelligence service.” Police said that the man had acquired chemicals to produce explosives to “kill as many people as possible.”

  The plots in Frankfurt and Berlin are, respectively, the eighth and ninth jihadi attacks that German police have foiled in the country since a rejected asylum seeker from Tunisia murdered 12 people by ramming a truck into a Berlin Christmas market in December 2016.

  Germany’s security challenge is about to increase yet further. On November 4, Turkish Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu announced that Turkey would begin repatriating captured Islamic State fighters back to their countries of origin — even if their European citizenship has been revoked:

  “We will send back those in our hands, but the world has come up with a new method now: revoking their citizenships. They are saying they should be tried where they have been caught. This is a new form of international law, I guess. It is not possible to accept this. We will send back Daesh (Islamic State) members in our hands to their own countries whether their citizenships are revoked or not.”

  At least 1,200 Islamic State fighters, including many from Western countries, are being held in Turkish prisons. Another 287 jihadis from at least 20 different countries have been captured by Turkish forces since the start of an offensive that began on October 9 against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northeastern Syria.

  Approximately 100 German Islamic State supporters are believed to be in custody in Turkey, according to the German news agency, Deutsche Presse-Agentur. The German Interior Ministry said that although the identity of the jihadis being held by Turkey was not known, they could not be denied entry to Germany if they indeed were German citizens.

  A German government spokesman, Armin Schuster, insisted that the German returnees were not “serious cases” and warned against “media-fueled hysteria.” He explained: “They did not take part in the fighting. They won’t be sent to prison, but they must be kept under surveillance.”

  On November 11, Turkey officially began repatriating Islamic State detainees to the West by deporting a German, an American and a Dane.

  On November 14, Turkey repatriated another eight Islamic State fighters: seven Germans and one Briton. One man, a German-Iraqi father of a family of seven named Kanan B., was accused by Turkey of being a member of the Islamic State. German authorities allowed the man and his family to return to their home in Lower Saxony. They said that although he is a member of the Islamist Salafist movement, they do not believe that he ever joined the Islamic State.

  On November 15, two female jihadis arrived in Frankfurt on a flight from Istanbul. German authorities arrested a 21-year-old Nasim A., whose origins are Somali. She moved from Germany to Syria as a minor in 2014 and, according to German investigators, married a jihadi fighter in late 2015. German authorities reportedly want to charge her with the offense of supporting the Islamic State. The other woman, 27-year-old Heida R. from Lower Hesse, had her fingerprints taken, but was released because she reportedly attended a deradicalization program.

  Meanwhile, on November 7, Germany’s Higher Administrative Court (OVG) in Berlin-Brandenburg ruled that Germany must repatriate three children and their Islamic State-affiliated mother. The German Foreign Ministry had said that it was prepared to repatriate the children, but, citing risks to national security, it refused to bring back the mother. The woman entered an Islamic State-controlled part of Syria in 2014 with the two older children; the third child was born there. In its ruling, the OVG said the children — now aged 8, 7 and 2 — were traumatized and would need their mother after being repatriated from the Kurdish-run Al-Hawl detention camp in northern Syria.

  German opposition parties have been critical of the government’s failure to face the problem of jihadi repatriations sooner. The deputy leader of the Free Democratic Party (FDP), Stephan Thomae, said that Berlin had little choice but to accept German citizens deported by another country:

  “The government kept its head in the sand for a long time and didn’t want to have anything to do with these cases. That is coming back to bite them now. It would have been better if the government had contacted Turkey much earlier to discuss such processes.”

  The Secretary General of the International Criminal Police Organization (Interpol), Jürgen Stock, warned that Europe faces a new wave of Islamic terrorism as radicalized individuals return to the continent:

  “We could soon be facing a second wave of other Islamic State linked or radicalized individuals that you might call Isis 2.0.

  “A lot of these are suspected terrorists or those who are linked to terrorist groups as supporters who are facing maybe two to five years in jail. Because they were not convicted of a concrete terrorist attack but only support for terrorist activities, their sentences are perhaps not so heavy.

  “In many parts of the world, in Europe but also Asia, this generation of early supporters will be released in the next couple of years, and they may again be part of a terrorist group or those supporting terrorist activities.”

  Austria

  Approximately 320 people from Austria are known to have traveled to the war zones of Syria and Iraq, according to the Austrian Interior Ministry. Of those, 93 have returned to Austria; 58 were most likely killed. More than 100 so-called foreign fighters from Austria are believed still to be in the Middle East.

  On October 18, a court in Graz sentenced four Turkish jihadis to prison terms ranging from five months to seven years for recruiting for the Islamic State. The men were all members of a mosque in Linz. Prosecutors explained how mosques across Austria are working together in their support for the Islamic State. “We must stop with false tolerance,” said the Graz prosecutor. “Islamism supplants the rule of law if we are not careful. Do not be afraid to impose severe punishments.”

  Denmark

  Danish authorities estimate that at least 158 people from Denmark have joined jihadi groups in Syria or Iraq; about 27 remain in the conflict zone. On October 14, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen announced fast-tracking legislation that would strip Danish nationality from people with dual citizenship who have gone abroad to fight for jihadi groups such as the Islamic State:

  “These are people who have turned their backs on Denmark and fought with violence against our democracy and freedom. They pose a threat to our security. They are unwanted in Denmark.”

  On November 17, Foreign Minister Jeppe Kofod said that Denmark would withhold consular assistance to citizens who travelled abroad to fight for extremist groups:

  “We owe absolutely nothing to foreign fighters who went to Syria and Iraq to fight for the Islamic State. This is why we are now taking measures against foreign fighters accessing consular assistance by the foreign ministry and Danish representations abroad.”

  France

  France has approximately 200 adult nationals and 300 children currently in Kurdish-controlled camps and prisons in northern Syria. The French government has said that Islamic State fighters should be judged as close as possible to where they committed their crimes. Only a handful of them, mostly orphans, have been repatriated.

  On October 17, Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian travelled to Iraq to convince the government in Baghdad to prosecute French jihadis after their transfer from Syria. The Iraqi government rejected that request.

  On October 19, a French anti-terrorism judge, David De Pas, urged the French government to repatriate French jihadis or “risk creating an infernal cycle.” In an interview with the AFP, he explained:

  “The geopolitical instability of the region and the porosity of what is left of the Kurdish camps leave two problems: on the one hand, the uncontrolled migration of jihadis towards Europe with the risk of attacks by highly ideologized people; and on the other hand, the reconstitution of particularly seasoned and determined combatant terrorist groups in the region.

  “From my point of view, it is better to know that these people are prosecuted in France rather than leaving them in the wilderness. How can we protect ourselves if we do not have them in custody? The best method is to judge and control them.

  “If in 15, 20, 30 years, these people still pose a threat when leaving prison, they will remain under the control of the intelligence and justice services. If they are tried in Iraq, we will not be able to monitor them when they leave prison. I would feel responsible for not saying it.”

  Other recent Islamist-related cases in France include:

  • October 3. Mickaël Harpon, a 45-year-old convert to Islam and IT specialist at Paris police headquarters, killed four of his colleagues during a 30-minute stabbing spree before he was shot dead by another officer. Interior Minister Christophe Castaner said that Harpon, who held a top-level security clearance, had “never shown any warning sign.” It was later revealed that Harpon had caused alarm among his colleagues as far back as 2015, when he defended the jihadi attack on the newspaper Charlie Hebdo. Anti-terror prosecutor Jean-Francois Ricard subsequently revealed that Harpon adhered to “a radical vision of Islam” and that he had been in contact with adherents of Salafism, an ultra-conservative branch of Sunni Islam.

  • October 10. French journalist Clément Weill-Raynal was threatened with disciplinary action by his superiors at France Télévisions for “prematurely reporting” that the October 3 jihadi attack at Paris police headquarters could have been “an act motivated by radical Islam.” Weill-Raynal, one of the first journalists to arrive at the scene of the search of the killer’s home in Gonesse, was the first to reveal on air that the killer had “converted to Islam.” His managers criticized his “lack of control” and threatened punish him. Weill-Raynal said: “I mentioned a hypothesis and today I am told about professional misconduct. It is Kafkaesque.”

  • October 14. Five members of an all-female Islamic State jihadi cell were sentenced to between five and 30 years in prison over a failed attempt to detonate a car bomb outside the Notre-Dame cathedral in Paris in November 2016.

  • October 17. Interior Minister Christophe Castaner revealed that French intelligence services had arrested a man for planning a jihadi attack inspired by airplane attacks on the World Trade Center in New York in September 2001. He added that there had been 60 attempted jihadi attacks in France since 2013.

  • October 28. In Paris, a man shouted “Allahu Akbar!” (“Allah is the greatest!”) at the Grand Re, the largest movie theater in Europe, during a screening of the American film “Joker.” A witness said that the man “put his hands on his chest and began shouting ‘Allahu Akbar!'” The witness continued: “Some people panicked and ran to the exits, but the doors were blocked. Some were crying. A mother was looking for her daughter.” Another witness said, “The guy, who was sitting in the 10th row, started screaming and muttering in Arabic. Someone said that he had a weapon. There was total panic. These are images that I will not forget. People climbed over their seats. There were women on the floor and others were stepping over them.”

  • October 30. Paris Police Prefect Didier Lallement revealed that seven police officers suspected of Islamic radicalization have had their weapons confiscated since the October 3 jihadi attack at Paris police headquarters. He said that a total of 33 police officers were being investigated for Islamic radicalization.

  Italy

  Approximately 140 Italian citizens or residents have travelled to fight in war zones in the Middle East, according to official estimates, and 26 have returned to Italy. Although the numbers are low in comparison to France and other European countries, Italy’s geographic location makes it vulnerable to jihadis who cross the Mediterranean Sea and enter Europe posing as refugees.

  In April 2019, the Italian Interior Ministry issued a directive aimed at dealing with jihadis arriving from Libya. The measures included increased border controls. The move came after Libyan Deputy Prime Minister Ahmed Maiteeq warned that 400 Islamic State fighters held in Tripoli and Misrata were poised to flee to Italy.

  In September, Interpol revealed that during a six-week operation, it had detected more than a dozen suspected “foreign terrorist fighters” crossing the Mediterranean Sea.

  Other recent Islamist-related cases in Italy include:

  • November 20. The Genoa Assize Court of Appeal confirmed a reduced prison sentence for Nabil Benamir, a 31-year-old Moroccan would-be Islamic State suicide bomber. Prosecutors had asked for a sentence of eight years and eight months; the appeals court confirmed a reduced sentence of five years and ten months handed down in November 2018. Benamir, a so-called lone wolf living in Italy illegally, was arrested in Genoa in December 2017 on charges of terrorism after he was heard, on an intercepted cellphone call, vowing to carry out a suicide attack. He is being held at a the high-security prison on the Italian island of Sardinia.

  • November 7. An 11-year-old boy who was taken to Syria by his jihadi mother when he was six was returned to Italy after being found at the Al-Hawl detention camp in northern Syria. In December 2014, the mother, an Albanian, left behind her husband and her two other children at the family home in Barzago to join the Islamic State. She is believed to have died in Syria.

  • August 21. Salma Bencharki, the wife of Abderrahim Moutaharrik, a Moroccan professional kickboxer who was jailed in 2017 over alleged links to the Islamic State, was deported from Italy to Morocco. An Italian court had sentenced the man and his wife to six and five years in prison, respectively. They were arrested in April 2016 for planning to leave for Syria with their children to join the Islamic State. The court suspended the couple’s custody of their two children. Moutaharrik, who was heard in wiretapped conversations that he would attack the Vatican, had his Italian citizenship revoked.

  • June 28. Samir Bougana, a 25-year-old Italian jihadi with Moroccan roots was brought back to Italy after being arrested in Syria. He allegedly first fought with militias close to al-Qaeda and then with the Islamic State. Bougana, who was born near Brescia and lived in Italy until he was 16 before moving to Germany with his family, surrendered to Kurdish-Syrian forces in August 2018.

  Netherlands

  At least 55 Islamic State jihadis from the Netherlands and another 90 children with Dutch parents are in northern Syria, according to the Dutch intelligence agency AVID.

  In 2017, the Netherlands enacted a law that allowed the state to revoke Dutch citizenship for people who joined the Islamic State. Since then, the Netherlands has revoked the Dutch nationality of 11 jihadis and is considering the same for 100 others, according to the Reuters news agency.

  Application of the Dutch law has been inconsistent. On September 23, for instance, the Council of State (Raad van State) restored Dutch nationality to five Moroccan jihadis who had lost it after joining the Islamic State.

  On September 16, however, a court in The Hague upheld the revocation of Dutch nationality of a Moroccan man who was convicted of committing terrorist crimes in Syria. He was prohibited from re-entering the Netherlands for ten years.

  • October 25. Dutch police arrested a 29-year-old Syrian alleged former commander of the Ahrar al-Sham jihadi group on suspicion of having committed war crimes. The unnamed man was arrested in a center for asylum seekers in Ter Apel, a village in the northern Netherlands. He had registered as an asylum seeker in Germany in late 2015 but was thought to have returned to Syria. He is said to have recorded videos of himself armed with a machine gun and posing with and kicking the dead bodies of enemy fighters. Some of those videos were posted to YouTube. The Ahrar al-Sham, a former al-Qaeda affiliate, has fought both with and against the Islamic State.

  • November 11. A court in The Hague ruled that the Netherlands must actively help repatriate the young children of women who joined Islamic State in Syria. The mothers themselves, however, do not need to be accepted back in the Netherlands, the court said. Lawyers for 23 women from the Netherlands who joined the Islamic State had asked a judge to order the state to repatriate them and their 56 children from camps in Syria.

    Judge Hans Vetter said that while the women were not required to be repatriated, the state must make “all possible efforts” to return the children, who have Dutch nationality and are under 12 years old. “The children cannot be held responsible for the actions of their parents,” the court said in a statement. “The children are victims of the actions of their parents.”

  Norway

  About 100 Norwegian citizens or residents are believed to have traveled to Syria and Iraq to join extremist Islamist groups, according to the Norwegian Interior Ministry. Approximately 20 are still in the Middle East.

  In May 2019, the Norwegian Justice Ministry issued a directive preventing foreign nationals with Norwegian residency and who are associated with the Islamic State from returning to Norway. “These are people who pose a serious security threat to our lives and our values,” Justice Minister Jøran Kallmyr said. “They will not return with Norwegian help.”

  Kallmyr said that while orphaned Norwegian children of Islamic State fighters would be allowed to return, the government will withdraw the residence permits of those who have traveled from Norway to join the Islamic State.

  On September 13, Kallmyr said that 15 Islamic State jihadis with Norwegian residency permits have been permanently expelled from Norway:

  “These are mainly Islamic State fighters and mothers who have traveled out of our country to participate in the Islamic State. They have been abroad for more than two years after leaving Norway. There is an opening in the asylum rules so that the residence permit can be withdrawn. If they enter the Schengen area, they will be arrested for violating the Immigration Act.”

  Spain

  Of the approximately 235 Spanish jihadis who traveled to Syria, around 50 have returned, according to Spain’s leading terrorism analyst, Fernando Reinares. At least 57 are imprisoned in Syria, according to Iraqi security forces quoted by El Confidencial.

  Recent Islamist-related cases in Spain include:

  • November 26. Police in Tenerife arrested a 26-year-old jihadi from Mauritania who was attempting to acquire homemade explosives, including TATP, an explosive known as the “Mother of Satan.”

  • November 22. A Spanish-Moroccan businessman named Nourdine Ch. was arrested in Majorca for supporting the Islamic State.

  • November 6. A 71-year-old Iraqi was arrested in Madrid for channeling “large amounts of money” to the Islamic State.

  • October 5. A 23-year-old Spanish-born Moroccan was arrested in Madrid for publishing Spanish-language jihadi videos and also for procuring chemicals to build explosives devices.

  • September 21. A 51-year-old Moroccan man was arrested in Algeciras for allegedly belonging to the Islamic State.

  • August 30. A 25-year-old Moroccan man was arrested in Alicante for allegedly belonging to the Islamic State.

  • August 2. A 35-year-old Spanish convert to Islam was arrested in Gran Canaria for allegedly photographing the headquarters of an LGTBI association on the island. The detainee had maintained contact with other converts who were arrested in Colombia and Argentina in 2018 based on information provided by Spanish police.

  • June 18. Ten jihadis were arrested in Madrid for allegedly financing the Islamic State.

  • April 17. Zouhair el Bouhdidi, a 23-year-old student at the University of Seville, was arrested in Morocco on charges of plotting a massacre in Seville on behalf of the Islamic State. The man, who was found to possess a large amount of explosives, was allegedly planning to attack Holy Week festivities in Seville.

  Switzerland

  At least 93 jihadis have travelled from Switzerland to conflict zones, according to the Swiss Federal Intelligence Service. Of these, 31 have a Swiss passport and 18 are dual nationals.

  Recent Islamist-related cases in Switzerland include:

  • September 11. The State Secretariat for Migration (SEM) revoked the Swiss citizenship from a dual national who had been sentenced to several years in prison for recruiting fighters for the Islamic State. Swiss authorities did not release the other nationality of the man. SEM said that this was the first time that it has stripped the nationality of a Swiss jihadi.

  • October 29. More than 100 police officers in the cantons of Bern, Schaffhausen and Zurich raided the homes of 11 jihadis suspected of being members of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. Six of the individuals were adults, including one returning jihadi already been tried for ties to the Islamic State, according to the Office of the Attorney General. The other five are youths.

  • October 21. The Federal Criminal Court extended the pre-trial detention of a man accused of attempted murder and supporting the Islamic State. The man, a citizen of the Canton of Vaud, was arrested in June 2017 police, who raided his home in Lausanne, found a handbook for urban guerrilla warfare, a knife, a bottle containing petrol and a Koran. While in detention, the defendant attacked a prison employee and shouted “Allahu Akbar” while threatening to kill him.

  United Kingdom

  An estimated 850 British jihadis have travelled to Iraq and Syria to fight for the Islamic State, according to an estimate by the International Center for the Study of Radicalization (ICSR) at King’s College London. Approximately 400 British jihadis have returned to Britain, and around 250 to 300 are still in Syria. The others are presumed to have died on the battlefields.

  The British government has resisted the repatriation of its jihadis. It said that they should face justice in the countries where their crimes were committed, not be returned home to face trial in the UK. In a written statement, a spokesperson for the British Foreign Office said:

  “Our priority is the safety and security of the UK and the people who live here.

  “Those who have fought for or supported Daesh [Islamic State] should wherever possible face justice for their crimes in the most appropriate jurisdiction, which will often be in the region where their offences have been committed.

  “We are working closely with international partners to address issues associated with foreign terrorist fighters, including the pursuit of justice against participants in terrorism overseas.”

  Several jihadis have been stripped of their British citizenship, including Jack Letts, who was raised in Oxfordshire by British and Canadian parents. He left home to join the Islamic State five years ago but has been held a prisoner in Syria since 2017. Canada, where Letts qualifies for a passport through his father, accused the British government of “offloading its responsibilities.”

  International law forbids people from being rendered stateless, but British law allows the UK to strip terror suspects abroad of their citizenship if they are a dual national or able to obtain citizenship of another country.

  Other recent Islamist-related cases in Britain include:

  • November 17. Mamun Rashid, a 26-year-old man from East London, was arrested after arriving in London on a flight from Turkey. He was charged with preparation of terrorist acts and will appear at Westminster Magistrates’ Court. Turkish authorities said that Rashid was a member of the Islamic State.

  • October 22. Metropolitan Police Commissioner Cressida Dick revealed that police in London have foiled 16 jihadi plots during the past two years.

  • October 16. Safiyya Amira Shaikh, a 36-year-old female jihadi from Hayes, Middlesex, was charged with terrorism offenses for attempting to bomb a London hotel as well as St. Paul’s Cathedral. She was arrested on October 10 after reconnoitering the hotel and church and preparing the words of a pledge of allegiance to the Islamic State.

  • October 1. Aseel Muthana, a 22-year-old who worked as an ice cream seller in Cardiff before he joined the Islamic State, said that he wants to return to the UK. ITV television found Muthana, who was presumed dead, at a secret prison in northern Syria. “Back then when I first came to ISIS, you have to understand I came way before the caliphate was pronounced,” he said. “Before all of these beheading videos, before all of the burnings happened, before any of that stuff. We came when ISIS propaganda and ISIS media was all about helping the poor, helping the Syrian people.” Muthana’s mother urged the British government to allow him back into the UK: “My little boy went seduced and brainwashed with ideas that were not his. Have compassion for our situation.”

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 12/03/2019 – 02:00

  Tags

  Politics

  

• Attacking The Source: The Establishment Loyalist's Favorite Online Tactic
  Attacking The Source: The Establishment Loyalist’s Favorite Online Tactic

  Authored by Caitlin Johnstone via CaitlinJohnstone.com,

  If you’re skeptical of western power structures and you’ve ever engaged in online political debate for any length of time, the following has definitely happened to you.

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  You find yourself going back and forth with one of those high-confidence, low-information establishment types who’s promulgating a dubious mainstream narrative, whether that be about politics, war, Julian Assange, or whatever. At some point they make an assertion which you know to be false–publicly available information invalidates the claim they’re making.

  “I’ve got them now!” you think to yourself, if you’re new to this sort of thing. Then you share a link to an article or video which makes a well-sourced, independently verifiable case for the point you are trying to make.

  Then, the inevitable happens.

  “LMAO! That outlet!” they scoff in response.

  “That outlet is propaganda/fake news/conspiracy theory trash!”

  Or something to that effect. You’ll encounter this tactic over and over and over again if you continually engage in online political discourse with people who don’t agree with you. It doesn’t matter if you’re literally just linking to an interview featuring some public figure saying a thing you’d claimed they said. It doesn’t matter if you’re linking to a WikiLeaks publication of a verified authentic document. Unless you’re linking to CNN/Fox News (whichever fits the preferred ideology of the establishment loyalist you’re debating), they’ll bleat “fake news!” or “propaganda!” or “Russia!” as though that in and of itself magically invalidates the point you’re trying to make.

  And of course it doesn’t. What they are doing is called attacking the source, also known as an ad hominem, and it’s a very basic logical fallacy.

  Most people are familiar with the term “ad hominem”, but they usually think about it in terms of merely hurling verbal insults at people. What it actually means is attacking the source of the argument rather than attacking the argument itself in a way that avoids dealing with the question of whether or not the argument itself is true. It’s a logical fallacy because it’s used to deliberately obfuscate the goal of a logical conclusion to the debate.

  “An ad hominem is more than just an insult,” explains David Ferrer for The Quad.

  “It’s an insult used as if it were an argument or evidence in support of a conclusion. Verbally attacking people proves nothing about the truth or falsity of their claims.”

  This can take the form of saying “Claim X is false because the person making it is an idiot.” But it can also take the form of “Claim X is false because the person making it is a propagandist,” or “Claim X is false because the person making it is a conspiracy theorist.”

  I don’t think @bellingcat knows what’s about to hit them now that @caitoz is on their case. Settle in for a few fun months as their entire bullshit narrative on #Syria chemical weapons comes tumbling down. Here’s her opening jab: https://t.co/jvYfIBkDM2

  — Sharmine Narwani (@snarwani) November 27, 2019

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  Someone being an idiot, a propagandist or a conspiracy theorist is irrelevant to the question of whether or not what they’re saying is true. In my last article debunking a spin job on the OPCW scandal by the narrative management firm Bellingcat, I pointed out that Bellingcat is funded by imperialist regime change operations like the National Endowment for Democracy, which was worth highlighting because it shows the readers where that organization is coming from. But if I’d left my argument there it would still be an ad hominem attack, because it wouldn’t address whether or not what Bellingcat wrote about the OPCW scandal is true. It would be a logical fallacy; proving that they are propagandists doesn’t prove that what they are saying in this particular instance is false.

  What I had to do in order to actually refute Bellingcat’s spin job was show that they were making a bad argument using bad logic, which I did by highlighting the way they used pedantic wordplay to make it seem as though the explosive leaks which have been emerging from the OPCW’s investigation of an alleged chemical weapons attack in Douma, Syria were insignificant. I had to show how Bellingcat actually never came anywhere close to addressing the actual concerns about a leaked internal OPCW email, such as extremely low chlorinated organic chemical levels on the scene and patients’ symptoms not matching up with chlorine gas poisoning, as well as the fact that the OPCW investigators plainly don’t feel as though their concerns were met since they’re blowing the whistle on the organisation now.

  And, for the record, Bellingcat’s lead trainer/researcher guy responded to my arguments by saying I’m a conspiracy theorist. I personally count that as a win.

  The correct response to someone who attacks the outlet or individual you’re citing instead of attacking the actual argument being made is, “You’re attacking the source instead of the argument. That’s a logical fallacy, and it’s only ever employed by people who can’t attack the argument.”

  The demand that you only ever use mainstream establishment media when arguing against establishment narratives is itself an inherently contradictory position, because establishment media by their very nature do not report facts against the establishment. It’s saying “You’re only allowed to criticise establishment power using outlets which never criticize establishment power.”

  2/2 No principle is worth nuclear war. This honest reporter, @caitoz, beholden to no ideology or special interest, calls it as it is, not as the #MSM wants to see — https://t.co/miDXqmZAG7

  — Oliver Stone (@TheOliverStone) November 26, 2019

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  Good luck finding a compilation of Trump’s dangerous escalations against Moscow like the one I wrote the other day anywhere in the mainstream media, for example. Neither mainstream liberals nor mainstream conservatives are interested in promoting that narrative, so it simply doesn’t exist in the mainstream information bubble. Every item I listed in that article is independently verifiable and sourced from separate mainstream media reports, yet if you share that article in a debate with an establishment loyalist and they know who I am, nine times out of ten they’ll say something like “LOL Caitlin Johnstone?? She’s nuts!” With “nuts” of course meaning “Says things my TV doesn’t say”.

  It’s possible to just click on all the hyperlinks in my article and share them separately to make your point, but you can also simply point out that they are committing a logical fallacy, and that they are doing so because they can’t actually attack the argument.

  This will make them very upset, because for the last few years establishment loyalists have been told that it is perfectly normal and acceptable to attack the source instead of the argument. The mass hysteria about “fake news” and “Russian propaganda” has left consumers of mainstream media with the unquestioned assumption that if they ever so much as glance at an RT article their faces will begin to melt like that scene in Raiders of the Lost Ark. They’ve been trained to believe that it’s perfectly logical and acceptable to simply shriek “propaganda!” at a rational argument or well-sourced article which invalidates their position, or even to proactively go around calling people Russian agents who dissent from mainstream western power-serving narratives.

  But it isn’t logical, and it isn’t acceptable. The best way to oppose their favorite logically fallacious tactic is to call it like it is, and let them deal with the cognitive dissonance that that brings up for them.

  Me: This link proves my claim.
  Empire loyalist: Eww, THAT outlet? They publish criticisms of western imperialism!
  Me: Yeah. That’s why I’m linking to them.
  Empire loyalist: No. You can only criticize western imperialism linking to outlets that never criticize western imperialism.

  — Caitlin Johnstone ⏳ (@caitoz) November 27, 2019

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Of course some nuance is needed here. Remember that alternative media is just like anything else: there’s good and bad, even within the same outlet, so make sure what you’re sharing is solid and not just some schmuck making a baseless claim. You can’t just post a link to some Youtuber making an unsubstantiated assertion and then accuse the person you’re debating of attacking the source when they dismiss it. That which has been presented without evidence may be dismissed without evidence, and if the link you’re citing consists of nothing other than unproven assertions by someone they’ve got no reason to take at their word, they can rightly dismiss it.

  If however the claims in the link you’re citing are logically coherent arguments or well-documented facts presented in a way that people can independently fact-check, it doesn’t matter if you’re citing CNN or Sputnik. The only advantage to using CNN when possible would be that it allows you to skip the part where they perform the online equivalent of putting their fingers in their ears and humming.

  Don’t allow those who are still sleeping bully those who are not into silence. Insist on facts, evidence, and intellectually honest arguments, and if they refuse to provide them call it what it is: an admission that they have lost the debate.

  *  *  *

  Thanks for reading! The best way to get around the internet censors and make sure you see the stuff I publish is to subscribe to the mailing list for my website, which will get you an email notification for everything I publish. My work is entirely reader-supported, so if you enjoyed this piece please consider sharing it around, liking me on Facebook, following my antics on Twitter, checking out my podcast on either Youtube, soundcloud, Apple podcasts or Spotify, following me on Steemit, throwing some money into my hat on Patreon or Paypal, purchasing some of my sweet merchandise, buying my new book Rogue Nation: Psychonautical Adventures With Caitlin Johnstone, or my previous book Woke: A Field Guide for Utopia Preppers. For more info on who I am, where I stand, and what I’m trying to do with this platform, click here. Everyone, racist platforms excluded, has my permission to republish or use any part of this work (or anything else I’ve written) in any way they like free of charge.

  Bitcoin donations:1Ac7PCQXoQoLA9Sh8fhAgiU3PHA2EX5Zm2

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 12/02/2019 – 23:45

• BNP Trader Fired For Losing $19 Million Wins $1.4 Million In Wrongful Dismissal Lawsuit
  BNP Trader Fired For Losing $19 Million Wins $1.4 Million In Wrongful Dismissal Lawsuit

  To us, there doesn’t seem to be many better reasons to fire someone than if they lose your firm $19 million in one day.

  But the Paris court of appeals apparently disagrees. They awarded a former trader at BNP Paribas about 1.3 million Euros ($1.4 million USD) in an unfair dismissal lawsuit over an incident where the trader did just that, according to Bloomberg. 

  The court ruled that Lionel Crassier, who was formerly the bank’s head of equities was “unduly punished twice” by BNP. Judges ruled that he was unfairly fired after the bank had already sanctioned him for the incident by recalling him from New York. 

  In the most recent case, the trader reportedly had built up a position of 65,000 mini futures that exceeded his 100 million Euro overnight limit and generated the loss at market close. 

  Crassier didn’t react on the day the BNP contacted him, “surprised by the volume” he was trading. Crassier only explained the incident after his boss reached out to him. 

  BNP said to Crassier in a letter: “You acknowledged having focused on volume, rather than the total value of your positions and without monitoring your P&L in real time, which is proof of your poor analysis and a flagrant lack of vigilance. Your behavior is unacceptable.”

  The Paris court of appeals had already overturned a 2017 ruling from lower judges that had dismissed Crassier’s claims and ordered him to pay 500,000 Euros to cover BNP’s legal fees.

  The appellate judges awarded him severance pay, unpaid bonuses and damages of 1.3 million Euros after Crassier returned to court and sought 3.5 million Euros for “career harm”, claiming his firing from BNP made it a “impossibility for him to work in a field he was passionate about”. 

  BNP lost a similar case last year in Paris after it demoted its former global head of foreign exchange arbitrage over a 2.7 million Euro that he incurred during his first month on the job. 

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 12/02/2019 – 23:25

  Tags

  Law Crime

  

• Krieger: "This Entire Century Has Been An Unmitigated March In The Direction Of Stupidity"
  Krieger: “This Entire Century Has Been An Unmitigated March In The Direction Of Stupidity”

  Authored by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

  Two Paths Forward with China – The Good and The Bad

  Since a few things became clear to me last year, I’ve consistently forecasted a significant worsening in U.S.-China relations and remained adamant that all the happy talk of trade deals and breakthroughs is just a lot of hot air.

  What first appeared to be a unique quirk of Donald Trump has morphed into bipartisan consensus in Congress, and clear signs have emerged that the general public has likewise become alarmed at China’s growing global clout.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Due to this, as well as a litany of other factors outlined in prior posts, it’s highly unlikely the current trajectory will reverse course and result in a return to what had been business as usual. Instead, we’re probably headed toward a serious and historically meaningful escalation of tensions between the U.S. and China, with what we’ve seen thus far simply a prelude to the main drama. If I’m correct and the ship has already sailed, we should focus our attention on how we respond to what could quickly become a very dicey scenario filled with heightened emotions and nefarious agendas. There’s a good way to respond and a bad way.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  In our individual lives we face various daily challenges, but every now and again something really big hits us, a personal crisis of sorts, and how we respond to these major events determines much of our future. The same thing happens to nation-states, particularly in the current world where virtually all human governance is structured in a highly centralized and statist manner. When such an event hits nation-states the public tends to be easily manipulated into a state of terror and coerced into granting more centralized power to the state, an unfortunate state of affairs that accurately summarizes the reality of 21st century America. With each crisis, the empire has grown stronger, the public weaker, and two decades later we find ourselves in a neo-feudal oligarchy where one half of the public is at the other half’s throat for no good reason. This is what happens when you respond poorly.

  Three major crisis events have rocked the U.S. this century, and much of the public has embraced, or at least accepted, the worst possible response in all cases.

  • The first was the attacks of 9/11, which officially ushered in the modern national security surveillance state and all but obliterated the 4th amendment.

  • The second was the financial crisis, where the response from Bush/Obama was to bail-out the criminals, destroy any semblance of the rule of law by jailing zero Wall Street executives, and to ensure the Federal Reserve (and mega-banking institutions in general) became stronger and more powerful than ever.

  • Finally, there was the shock election of Donald Trump. Rather than take his ascendance as a warning about centralized power, the faux “resistance” has been obsessed with removing him, celebrating intelligence agencies/military aggression, bemoaning free speech, and rehabilitating George W. Bush.

  Three crises, three horribly destructive responses. This entire century has been an unmitigated march in the direction of stupidity.

  What needs to be done is the exact opposite of this. We need to admit a country of 330 million people cannot, and should not, be governed like a gigantic uniform blob.
  We need more decentralization/localism and less centralized state power/empire. https://t.co/7UV6Wcl2oA

  — Michael Krieger (@LibertyBlitz) December 2, 2019

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  I’ve become convinced the next major event that will be used to further centralize power and escalate domestic authoritarianism will center around U.S.-China tensions. We haven’t witnessed this “event” yet, but there’s a good chance it’ll occur within the next year or two. Currently, the front runner appears to be a major aggressive move by China into Hong Kong, but it could be anything really. Taiwan, the South China Sea, currency, economic or cyber warfare; the flash points are numerous and growing by the day. Something is going to snap and when it does we better be prepared to not act like mindless imbeciles for the fourth time this century.

  When that day arrives, and it’s likely not too far off, certain factions will try to sell you on the monstrous idea that we must become more like China to defeat China. We’ll be told we need more centralization, more authoritarianism, and less freedom and civil liberties or China will win. Such talk is total nonsense and the wise way to respond is to reject the worst aspects of the Chinese system and head the other way.

  If you’re horrified by China’s human rights abuses, then push for an end to murderous U.S. wars abroad based on lies. If the Chinese surveillance panopticon concerns you, we should move in the exact opposite direction with less corporate and state surveillance, not more. If China launches a state-sanctioned digital currency system designed to monitor, and if desired, restrict transactions, we should reject this approach and embrace open, decentralized and permissionless systems like Bitcoin. We should fight lack of freedom with more freedom.

  We’ve become a country of people obsessed with bossing around other people and telling them how to live by using the force of the state. We need to take a step back, chill out and let different internal cultures be different. Localism is strength, empire is weakness.

  — Michael Krieger (@LibertyBlitz) December 2, 2019

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Given our track record this century, I’m skeptical Americans will respond in a positive and productive way to increased tensions with China, although perhaps I’ll be pleasantly surprised. I hope we can finally face a challenge without cowering in fear and surrendering more freedom in order to feel safe and powerful. I hope we can recognize that empire is not an asset, but a liability. That empire strengthens the state and weakens the public. I hope we can be wise enough not to embrace further authoritarianism to defeat authoritarianism. For once this century, I hope we can respond in a thoughtful and intelligent manner.

  *  *  *

  Liberty Blitzkrieg is an ad-free website. If you enjoyed this post and my work in general, visit the Support Page where you can donate and contribute to my efforts.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 12/02/2019 – 23:05

• Mystery Trader Makes $10 Million In Hours Betting S&P Will Drop 4.5% In One Month
  Mystery Trader Makes $10 Million In Hours Betting S&P Will Drop 4.5% In One Month

  The recent market melt-up is coming to a quick end.

  At least that’s the opinion of one investor who spent millions to hedge a multi-billion position against a 5% drop in the next 6 weeks.

  A mystery trader bought 16,000 January 2,980 S&P puts, spending $32 million to protect against a 4.5% drop in the index at 9:44am on Monday morning, just before the Markit manufacturing PMI printed, and about 15 minutes before the latest dismal Manufacturing ISM sent stocks tumbling.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  The appears to be hedging roughly $4.8 billion in assets, according to Henry Schwartz, president of Trade Alert in New York.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  The price of the put rose by $8.30 or 47% from Friday, closing at $25.80.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  This means that while the market is nowhere near the 2,980 Jan 17 strike, the mystery trader has already made just under $10 million in just under 7 hours on Monday. Of course, if this is indeed a hedge, it is just as likely that his $4.8 billion basket suffered similar if not greater losses over the same time period.

  Not surprisingly, in this incredibly illiquid market which has seen both dealer delta and gamma rise sharply in recent weeks…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  … it was not immediately clear if the trade was put in response to the early morning market selloff which culminated in 0.9% drop in the S&P – its biggest one-day drop since October – or actually caused it.

  Speaking to Bloomberg, Matthew Brill, head of derivatives trading at Tourmaline Partners, said that an options trade of that magnitude “quickly pressured stocks” when it crossed, in the process accelerating the stock selloff.

  “The index quickly shed almost 0.5% as it needed to absorb almost $1 billion of stock for sale,” Brill said, adding that the move reflects a recent trend of traders buying 5% out-of-the-money puts for one- to three-month durations on broader market indexes rather than individual securities.

  The trade comes just a few days after a different (or perhaps the same) investor bought deep out of the money calls for $1.75 million in a bet that gold would soar to $4,000 by June 2021.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 12/02/2019 – 22:45

  Tags

  Business Finance

  

• Welcome To The Potemkin Village Of Washington Power
  Welcome To The Potemkin Village Of Washington Power

  Authored by William Smith via TheAmericanConservative.com,

  What American constitutional government most urgently needs at present is for our Madisonian institutions – the presidency, the Congress, and the courts – to wrest back control of national security policy from an unelected and increasingly rogue national security establishment. 

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  That ominous challenge to constitutionalism was on full display with the recent op-ed piece in the New York Times by retired Admiral William McRaven, in which he brashly warned that unless Trump jumped aboard the Forever War bandwagon, he must be removed, and “the sooner the better.” The U.S. must have a policy, McRaven said, that protects “the Kurds, the Iraqis, the Afghans, the Syrians, the Rohingyas, the South Sudanese and the millions of people under the boot of tyranny.” 

  How did we get to the point where a former senior military officer calls for the removal of a duly elected president because he doesn’t stand shoulder-to-shoulder with the Rohingyas? McRaven’s op-ed represents something new in American politics: the assertion that an elected president is illegitimate unless he works to spread our “ideals of universal freedom and equality” through military action and alliances. McRaven also argued that it is “the American military…the intelligence and law enforcement community, the State Department and the press,” all unelected institutions, that now embody the true American civic religion and protect its “ideals.” 

  Even though President Trump’s promises to end wars and question expensive alliances were quite popular with the electorate, in the view of many in the national security establishment, elections do not bestow constitutional legitimacy. They assume instead that their “ideals” and belligerent foreign policy represent the true animating principles and governing force of the nation. To question them is tantamount to an “attack” on America “from within.” 

  While the rank-and-file military are among the most patriotic of Americans and show unwavering support for the Constitution, there is a huge class of elite national security bureaucrats who, whatever they may say on ceremonial occasions, believe they are above the Constitution. 

  Wait a minute, you say, this is hyperbole. The Constitution provides for civilian control of the military and other national security institutions. The problem is that in practice the Constitution does no such thing. As Samuel Huntington pointed out, the constitutional oversight of the military establishment by elected civilians is fractured, non-linear, and tenuous. The president is commander-in-chief, a title more than a function, and Congress controls the purse strings, the power to declare war, and the confirmation of senior national security nominees. The National Guard reports to presidents and governors. Anyone watching a general, admiral, or CIA director testify before Congress is aware that the national security establishment has more than one boss. Who in the civilian government is ultimately in control? Everyone and no one.

  Huntington points out that, when the Constitution was framed, there was no real concern about controlling the military, and the intelligence community did not even exist. The military arts were not highly specialized and militia officers were typically members of the political establishment who were elected or appointed by local legislatures. Military leaders like George Washington were part and parcel of the political culture of the ruling class. There simply wasn’t a danger of a rogue national security establishment in 1789, and for all their sagacity, the Framers of the Constitution did not foresee the emergence of one.

  In the mid-19th century, all this changed. Militaries became highly specialized and officers became professional soldiers. A martial culture was developed that was distinct from politics. Military “academies” were founded to inculcate this new culture and to teach the new specialties within the military arts. As a result, Huntington argued, presidents needed more “objective” control of national security institutions. When Generals McClellan and McArthur famously questioned the national security decisions of their presidents, Lincoln and Truman fired them respectively. But the tradition that the national security establishment must take orders from the president is a political, not a constitutional, precedent, and it is breaking down. 

  Tufts law professor Michael Glennon points out in a recent essay in Humanitas that the Cold War brought something new and ominous in military-civilian relations. The national security bureaucracy became so large and omnipotent that the Madisonian branches of government became something like the British House of Lords, symbolically important but in reality without much power. The executive, legislature, and judiciary became a kind of Potemkin village, with real national security power lodged in, as Glennon describes it, “a largely concealed managerial directorate, consisting of the several hundred leaders of the military, law enforcement and intelligence departments.” As this bureaucracy grew, Glennon argues, “those managers…operated at an increasing remove from constitutional limits and restraints, moving the nation slowly toward autocracy.”

  Glennon also points out that, prior to Trump, there was an unwritten pact between the bureaucracy and the Madisonian government: never publicly disagree. While national security policies have long been crafted and maintained by deep state bureaucracies, everyone played along and told the public these were the result of “intense deliberations.” Yet a few people noticed that, whether under Republican or Democrat administrations, national security policies never really changed, intelligence operations were never disrupted, and even peacenik-seeming presidential candidates became warlike presidents. For decades, neither elected officials nor bureaucratic leaders publicly acknowledged that American national security policy was being run by what Glennon describes as a “double government,” with elected officials largely impotent. 

  However, with the staggering intelligence failure that was 9/11 and two protracted and losing wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, some have begun to question whether the “grown-ups” in the national security bureaucracy are even competent. Trump gave voice to those concerns in the 2016 campaign, and the result has been a breakdown in the Cold War truce between the two components of the double government. Leaders of the national security establishment, who know they have real power, took precautions in the unlikely event of a Trump victory and then proceeded to try to overturn Trump’s election. When they failed, they partnered with Congress to have Trump removed through impeachment, taking full advantage of the fractured nature of civilian control of national security institutions. Impeachment witnesses, such as Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Vindman, have been unanimous in their implicit belief that the foreign policy of the United States should be managed by a professional class of bureaucrats, not by the elected president.

  The American constitutional order is thus in great peril. Those obsessed with getting rid of the president should consider that, were Trump to be removed, it could be the constitutional equivalent of Julius Caesar’s crossing of the Rubicon.

  Call Donald Trump cartoonish and erratic, but he also happens to be the duly elected president of the United States. And while we must admire the selfless service of so many in the national security establishment, as citizens, we also have the right to ask people like William McRaven: who elected you?

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 12/02/2019 – 22:25

  Tags

  Politics

  War Conflict

  

• Hong Kong Retail Sales Suffer "Very Enormous" Crash As Tourism Collapses 
  Hong Kong Retail Sales Suffer “Very Enormous” Crash As Tourism Collapses 

  Hong Kong’s retail industry crashed again in October, as the city spirals lower into a recession that could lead to a collapse of the economy, reported Reuters.

  Retail sales in October plunged 24.3% YoY, according to government data published on Monday. This was by far the worst print on record as the tourism industry in the last six months has evaporated. 

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Retail sales fell to $3.85 billion in October, a ninth consecutive month of declines, following violent clashes between pro-democracy protesters and police around shopping districts, malls, and eateries. Many Mainlanders now view Hong Kong as far too dangerous for travel, one of the main reasons why the retail industry has tanked.

  “The local social incidents with increasing violence depressed consumption sentiment and severely disrupted tourism- and consumption-related activities,” a government spokesman said.

  Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po said retail sales decline will continue to be “very enormous” heading into the new year. 

  Last month, it was confirmed that Hong Kong stumbled into a recession for the first time in a decade in 3Q.

  More than six months of protests and nearly 17 months of a trade war between the US and China dampened economic activity in the city.  

  With no end in sight to neither the protests and trade war, Hong Kong’s economy is expected to continue decelerating through 1Q20, will likely face a deeper slump than what was seen in the 2008 financial crisis. 

  “Domestic demand worsened significantly in the third quarter, as the local social incidents took a heavy toll on consumption-related activities and subdued economic prospects weighed on consumption and investment sentiment,” the government said last month. 

  GDP data was revised lower for full-year growth to -1.3%. That marked the first annual decline since 2009. 

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Chinese Mainlanders and tourists from across the world have canceled bookings, as retailers have been severely damaged from crashing sales, and the stock market continues to trend lower, which has been compounded by the ongoing trade war between the US and China. 

  Tourism numbers for October arrivals plunged 43.7% YoY to 3.31 million, according to the Hong Kong Tourism Board. September figures showed a 34.2% drop. 

  We’ve noted that luxury retailers have been hit the hardest, also putting pressure on the global diamond industry. 

  The Hong Kong Retail Management Association has told landlords to halve rents for retailers as the city’s economy is expected to plunge through 2020. 

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  The government has deployed stimulus measures since August, but monetary policy is widely ineffective when social-economic chaos continues to gain momentum. 

  The outlook for 2020 could be absolutely disastrous for retailers in the city, there’s the chance that if the retail industry remains depressed, then a massive wave of store closures could nearing. This would also trigger enormous job losses and feed through the system, likely tilting the economy into a depression. 

  Imagine that, and it only took six months of violent protests in Hong Kong to trigger economic disaster. Now the real question remains, what are the global implications to the financial system of an imploding Hong Kong?

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 12/02/2019 – 22:05

  Tags

  Business Finance

  

• The Superpowers Battling Over Iraq's Giant Oil Field
  The Superpowers Battling Over Iraq’s Giant Oil Field

  Authored by Simon Watkins via OilPrice.com,

  Ever since the U.S. signalled through its effective withdrawal from Syria that it now has little interest in becoming involved in military actions in the Middle East, the door has been fully opened to China and Russia to advance their ambitions in the region.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  • For Russia, the Middle East offers a key military pivot from which it can project influence West and East and that it can use to capture and control massive oil and gas flows in both directions as well.

  • For China, the Middle East – and, absolutely vitally, Iran and Iraq – are irreplaceable stepping stones towards Europe for its era-defining ‘One Belt, One Road’ project.

  Earlier this week an announcement was made by Iraq’s Oil Ministry that highlights each of these factors at play, through a relatively innocuous-sounding contract award to a relatively unknown Chinese firm.

  Specifically, it was announced that China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Corp (CPECC) has been awarded a US$121 million engineering contract to upgrade the facilities that are used to extract gas during crude oil production at the supergiant West Qurna-1 oilfield in Iraq, 50 kilometres northwest of the principal oil hub of Basra. The project is due to be completed within 27 months and aims to increase the capture of gas currently being flared across the site. Two factors that were not highlighted in the general announcement were firstly that CPECC is a subsidiary of China’s principal political proxy in the oil and gas sector, China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC), and secondly that the gas capture project will also include the development of the oil reserves at West Qurna 1. The current level of oil reserves at West Qurna 1 is just under nine billion barrels but, crucially, the site is part of the overall massive West Qurna reservoir that comprises at least 43 billion barrels of crude oil reserves.

  “For China, it’s always all about positioning itself so that it is perfectly placed to expand its foothold,” a senior oil and gas industry source who works closely with Iraq’s Oil Ministry told OilPrice.com earlier this week.

  Certainly it makes sense for Iraq to finally begin to monetise its associated gas that it has been burnt off for decades as a product of its burgeoning oil production. Aside from the negative environmental impact of this practice, there is the bizarre practical result that Iraq – which holds some of the biggest oil and gas reserves in the world – has to go to its neighbour Iran every year and beg for electricity imports to plug the huge power deficits that afflict it, particularly during the summer months. As it stands, Iraq has been steadily importing around one third of its total energy supplies from Iran, which equates to around 28 million cubic feet (mcf) of gas to feed its power stations. Even with these extra supplies, frequent daily power outages across Iraq occur and have been a prime catalyst for widespread protests in the past, including last year. The situation is also likely to become worse if change does not occur as, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Iraq’s population is growing at a rate of over one million per year, with electricity demand set to double by 2030, reaching about 17.5 gigawatts average.

  Apart from this, burning gas associated with the production of crude oil is costing Iraq billions of dollars in lost revenues. It loses money in the first place because in order to try to minimise power shortages, Iraq is forced to burn crude oil directly at power plants that it could sell in the open market for currently well over US$55 per barrel (and the lifting cost per barrel in Iraq is just US$2 on average). In this context, the average volume of crude oil used for power generation has fallen in the past two years from a peak of 223,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2015 but it still averages around 110,000 bpd, or around US$2.25 billion per year in value. It costs Iraq money in the second place because this associated gas that is flared could itself either be sold off directly or in LNG form or used as high-quality feedstock to finally truly kick-start the country’s long-stalled petrochemicals industry that itself could generate massive added-value product revenue streams. According to the IEA, Iraq has around 3.5 trillion cubic metres (tcm) of proven reserves of gas – mainly associated – which would be enough to supply nearly 200 years of Iraq’s current consumption of gas, as long as flaring is minimised. It added, though, that proven reserves do not provide an accurate picture of Iraq’s long-term production potential and that the underlying resource base – ultimately recoverable resources – is significantly larger, at 8 tcm or more.

  China knows all of this and has come to the correct conclusion that it cannot lose by expanding its imprint in Iraq in such a way. “However, China is now very wary of being seen in Iran or Iraq as looking to make them into client states, although that’s what it plans for both, so it’s recalibrated its approach to being more of the stealth variety – that is, small, incremental steps but lots of them – until at one point in the future the governments [of Iran and Iraq] look around and wonder how China is calling all the shots all of a sudden,” said the Iraq source. Such is the case in West Qurna 1 in which, although the contract announced principally involves CPECC just building the infrastructure to capture gas rather than flare it, in reality also involves being allowed to take and use or sell the gas at an advantageous rate.

  “China is looking at taking the gas with a discount of at least 30 per cent to the lowest mean one-year average market price at the hubs [principal gas hub pricing in Europe], and this then allows China to get more involved in the oil as well,” he added.

  China certainly has the expertise for this – and the appetite – as it has put on hold for a while at least its plans to take over the development of Phase 11 of Iran’s supergiant South Pars gas field.

  This large foothold in West Qurna 1 will very neatly fit in with China’s near-identical move just a couple of months ago in Iraq’s massive Majnoon oil field. It is this field that was the focus of the extremely similar announcement that two major new drilling contracts had been signed: one with China’s Hilong Oil Service & Engineering Company to drill 80 wells at a cost of US$54 million and the other with the Iraq Drilling Company to drill 43 wells at a cost of US$255 million. In reality, it will be China that is in charge of both, having given the funds required to the Iraq Drilling Company as a ‘fee’ for its own participation, according to the Iraq source. Also located very close to Basra – around 60 kilometres to the north-east – the supergiant Majnoon oilfield is one of the world’s largest, holding an estimated 38 billion barrels of oil in place. It is currently producing around 240,000 bpd. Longer term, though, the original production tar­get figures for the Shell-led consortium still stand: the first production target of 175,000 bpd (already reached), and the plateau production for the site of 1.8 million bpd at some point in the 2030s.  West Qurna 1, in the meantime, is producing around 465,000 bpd, with an original plateau target of 2.825 million bpd having been re-negotiated down, to 1.6 million bpd again by some point in the 2030s.

  The deal for the oil that China ends up extracting from West Qurna 1 will be: “Absolutely in line with the deal it has for Majnoon,” the Iraq source told OilPrice.com earlier this week. Specifically, this will involve a 25-year contract but – critically – one that would only officially start two years after the signing date (yet to be determined), so allowing CNPC to recoup more profits on average per year and less upfront investment. The per barrel payments to China will be the higher of either the mean average of the 18 month spot price for crude oil produced, or the past six months’ mean average price. It will also involve at least a 10 per cent discount to China for at least five years on the value of the oil it recovers, in addition to the aforementioned 30 per cent discount for the gas it captures.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 12/02/2019 – 21:45

  Tags

  Business Finance

  

• Barr Disputes Major Horowitz Finding Based On Durham, CIA Evidence
  Barr Disputes Major Horowitz Finding Based On Durham, CIA Evidence

  Attorney General William Barr will dispute a fundamental finding in the upcoming Inspector General report – namely that the FBI was justified in launching an operation Crossfire Hurricane, the agency’s official covert counterintelligence investigation into links between the Trump campaign and Russian officials, according to the Washington Post.

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  While IG Michael Horowitz is said to have concluded that the agency had enough information to launch the probe on July 31, 2016 after Trump campaign aide George Papadopoulos repeated a rumor that Russia had dirt on Hillary Clinton, Barr has reportedly told associates that Horowitz does not know about – or did not include – potentially exculpatory evidence held by other US agencies such as the CIA, which could alter his report’s conclusion.

  In July, Fox News reported that exculpatory evidence existed which the FBI failed to include in surveillance warrant applications in which Papadopoulos denies having any contact with the Russians, when he was in fact told about the ‘Clinton dirt’ byJoseph Mifsud, a mysterious Maltese professor (and self-professed member of the Clinton foundation) who has ties to George Soros’ Open Society Foundation.

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  Many believe Papadopoulos was the victim of an entrapment scheme, by which Mifsud would seed him with information that Australian diplomat would later extract from him in a London bar, which made its way to the FBI – officially leading to the launch of Operation Crossfire Hurricane.

  And the exculpatory evidence? Downer – a Clinton ally – likely recorded Papadopoulos saying he had no Russian contacts.

  Have been contacted by about a dozen Australian journalists for comment on Clinton errand boy, Alexander Downer, and him being idiotic enough to spy on me with his phone. The transcript of my meeting with him will show Australia was willfully trying to sabotage Donald Trump.

  — George Papadopoulos (@GeorgePapa19) June 15, 2019

  Barr’s information also comes from a concurrent, ongoing investigation into the Obama DOJ conducted by Connecticut US Attorney John Durham.

  Part of Barr’s reluctance to accept that finding is related to another investigation, one being conducted by Connecticut U.S. Attorney John Durham, into how intelligence agencies pursued allegations of Russian election tampering in 2016. Barr has traveled abroad to personally ask foreign officials to assist Durham in that work. Even as the inspector general’s review is ending, Durham’s investigation continues. –Washington Post

  Barr, through Durham, has been investigating Mifsud – who told Italian media “I never got any money from the Russians: my conscience is clear,” adding “I am not a secret agent.” The Maltese professor is currently MIA.

  As the Post‘s Devlin Barrett (who spoke with former FBI lawyer Lisa Page) notes, Barr’s disagreement with Horowitz not only sets the stage for a showdown within the DOJ, it will spark partisan outrage among Democrats who have already accused the AG of being Trump’s personal lawyer.

  House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) charged in September that Barr had “gone rogue.”

  In recent weeks, Democrats have charged that Barr’s Justice Department was too quick to decide not to investigate Trump over his efforts to convince Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, to announce an investigation of Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden. The Ukraine controversy has led to an impeachment inquiry. –Washington Post

  Barr, meanwhile, has slammed Democrats for abusing legal procedures and Congressional standards in their pursuit of Donald Trump, saying earlier this month “In waging a scorched-earth, no-holds-barred war against this administration, it is the left that is engaged in shredding norms and undermining the rule of law.”

  In April, Barr used the term “spying” to describe what the Obama DOJ did to the Trump campaign.

  “I think spying on a political campaign is a big deal,” he told lawmakers. “I think spying did occur, but the question is whether it was adequately predicated and I’m not suggesting it wasn’t adequately predicated, but I need to explore that.“

  PapaD is the key

  — Jack Posobiec 🇺🇸 (@JackPosobiec) December 3, 2019

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  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 12/02/2019 – 21:25

  Tags

  Politics

  

• Asset Forfeiture And The Destruction Of American Liberty
  Asset Forfeiture And The Destruction Of American Liberty

  Authored by Jacob Hornberger via The Future of Freedom Foundation,

  For centuries, it has been an established tenet of Western jurisprudence that a person cannot be punished for a crime unless the government first convicts him of the crime in a court of law. After the Constitution called the federal government into existence, our American ancestors demanded that this principle be enshrined in the Bill of Rights because they were convinced that federal officials would end up violating it.

  The Fifth Amendment states in part:

  “No person shall be held to answer for a capital, or otherwise infamous crime, unless on presentment or indictment of a Grand Jury…. nor be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law.”

  What is “due process of law”? It is a phrase whose origin stretches all the way to Magna Carta in the year 1215. It means “notice and hearing.” In a criminal case, that means the federal government is prohibited from depriving a person of life, liberty, and property without a formally issued grand-jury indictment and a formal trial, where the government must prove a person’s guilt beyond a reasonable doubt. In a civil case, it means that the government must provide advance notice and a formal hearing or trial before it can deprive a person of his property.

  The centuries-old judicial principle of due process of law was destroyed when Congress enacted what are called asset-forfeiture laws, which are part of the decades-long federal effort to win the war on drugs, which is arguably the most failed, deadly, destructive, and racially bigoted government program in our nation’s history.

  Realizing that all of their previous efforts to “win” the war on drugs had failed, the feds came up with what they considered was a brilliant idea, but one that actually has turned out to be one great big crooked and corrupt racket that forcibly takes money out of the pockets of law-abiding citizens and puts it in the coffers of state cops and the federal Drug Enforcement Administration, in direct contravention of the due process clause of the Fifth Amendment.

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  Here is how the system works.

  The state police decide to stop a late-model car traveling down the highway that is being driven, say, by an African-American. The cop might come up with some excuse for the stop, such as a defective tail light. After asking for a driver’s license and car registration, the cop will ask the driver if it’s okay if he searches the vehicle. The driver, who has nothing to hide, says yes. The cop finds a case containing $10,000 in cash. The driver explains that he is on his way to buy a used car for his son.

  What happens then? Under traditional rules of jurisprudence, nothing should happen except to let driver proceed on his way, with, at most, a citation for a defective tail light. The driver has not committed any other offenses. Under our system of justice, he should be free to be on his way.

  But that’s not what happens under the asset-forfeiture law. The law permits the cops to assume that the cash must be “drug money.” Thus, the law now permits the cop to just take the driver’s money and transport it back to the police station, where the loot is divided up between the police department and the DEA.

  Notice something important about this process: There are no criminal charges filed against the driver. There is no advance notice of the seizure. There is no hearing or trial before the seizure. People, especially poorer people, are having their money seized and taken from them by the cops in direct violation of the due process clause of the Fifth Amendment (as well as the due process clause of the Fourteenth Amendment).

  The cops say to their victim: If you don’t like what we are doing to you, you can sue us. And they can. But as a practical  matter, most don’t. They just resign themselves to the theft of their money. After all, most of them don’t have the money to hire a lawyer to file a lawsuit in the hope of getting their money back. Even if they do, they know that they’ll have to pay the lawyer $300-$500 an hour, with no assurance that they will prevail in the litigation. It’s just not worth it to most people, especially most poorer people.

  It’s a classic case of highway robbery at the hands of the state. It’s also a classic example of how Americans have had their liberty destroyed by their own government, which was precisely what our ancestors were trying to prevent when they enacted the Bill of Rights.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 12/02/2019 – 21:05

  Tags

  Law Crime

  

• "Grab Some Red Bull & Code": Israel's Bizarre Appeal For A 'Worldwide Hackathon' To Free Iran
  “Grab Some Red Bull & Code”: Israel’s Bizarre Appeal For A ‘Worldwide Hackathon’ To Free Iran

  “This is going to sound insane,” Israeli Defense Minister Naftali Bennett introduces during a social media message on Iran published Saturday. He explains that Iran blocked internet access after mass anti-government and economic grievance-driven protests spread to some 100 cities over the past weeks.

  “Most social media sites in Iran are still banned as we speak,” he notes, while also describing a typical young Iranian’s frustration at being prevented from logging in. He then calls for a all programmers and techies to unite for a “worldwide hackathon” to free the Iranians from their regime-imposed internet ban.

  “So, here is a crazy idea. How about every techie in the world — Israelis, Arabs, Iranians, Americans, Europeans and everyone else unite for one purpose: to help the long-suffering Iranian people gain open access to all social media. A worldwide hackathon for freedom,” Bennet says.

  #Israeli Defense Minister Bennett on #IranProtests: « Grab some Red Bull and code through the night to do the impossible » pic.twitter.com/h0LJWIUKZz

  — Anna Ahronheim (@AAhronheim) November 30, 2019

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  It’s among the more bizarre tactics over the years involving Israeli attempts to make a ‘hip’ appeal to the Iranian public to rise up against their government, which has also lately included the Israeli Embassy in the US using “Frozen 2” movie images to “remind people that the Iranian regime has frozen 80 million Iranians from the internet for a whole week.”

  “Elsa has a message for the regime in Teheran – Let It Go!” the unusual appeal posted to Titter reads.

  Thus it appears Tel Aviv is hoping some kind of home-grown revolution can topple the power of the Ayatollahs using crude Disney movie themed propaganda.

  With #Frozen2 coming out today it is a good time to remind people that the #Iranian regime has frozen 80 million Iranians from the #internet for a whole week. #Elsa has a message for the regime in #Teheran – Let It Go! pic.twitter.com/nVclkxvJop

  — Embassy of Israel (@IsraelinUSA) November 22, 2019

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  Defense Minister Bennett’s social media video also has a youthful and progressive sounding ‘rise up for regime change’ vibe to it. Making a global appeal, he says everyone  “has a role to play” whether a senior IT engineer at an AI startup or merely someone “tinkering” in their own garage.

  “Call up your most brilliant friends, grab some Red Bull and code through the night to do the impossible,” he urges, with his words also appearing in Farsi on the screen.

  So far the social media reaction appears to be one of widespread mockery at the comic appearance and strangeness of the appeals. Likely few if any actual young Iranians believe that Tehran’s arch-enemy Israel is on the side of ‘the people’ and cares about their fate and future prospects for democracy. 

  The Jerusalem Post in a new report has also noted that inside Iran, Israel’s new Defense Minister Naftali Bennett is openly mocked on TV and social media as the “Zionist minister of war”.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 12/02/2019 – 20:45

  Tags

  Politics

  

• "Where Are They Lisa?": Trump Blasts Former FBI 'Lovebird' Over Scrubbed Texts After Puff-Piece Interview
  “Where Are They Lisa?”: Trump Blasts Former FBI ‘Lovebird’ Over Scrubbed Texts After Puff-Piece Interview

  Update: President Trump has responded to the article, tweeting “When Lisa Page, the lover of Peter Strzok, talks about being “crushed”, and how innocent she is, ask her to read Peter’s “Insurance Policy” text, to her, just in case Hillary loses,” adding “Also, why were the lovers text messages scrubbed after he left Mueller. Where are they Lisa?”

  When Lisa Page, the lover of Peter Strzok, talks about being “crushed”, and how innocent she is, ask her to read Peter’s “Insurance Policy” text, to her, just in case Hillary loses. Also, why were the lovers text messages scrubbed after he left Mueller. Where are they Lisa?

  — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 2, 2019

  ***

  With a week to go before the long-awaited DOJ Inspector General’s report on the FBI’s conduct surrounding the 2016 election, former agency lawyer Lisa Page would like everyone to know that she’s the real victim.

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  Speaking with the Daily Beast‘s Molly Jong-Fast, who challenged her on exactly nothing (such as whether she altered Mike Flynn’s 302 form, or what the ‘insurance policy‘ was, or if she coordinated with the Washington Post on a “media leak strategy”), Page insists that her hatred of Trump never influenced her work investigating him, and that while she prefers to live in obscurity – she was compelled to tell her side of the story after President Trump mocked her with a fake orgasm routine at a rally last month – and not because of IG Michael Horowitz’s FISA report due on December 9th.

  Lisa Page is a “survivor” now.

  Pay no attention to the IG report that said her corruption caused irreparable harm that “goes to the heart of the FBI’s reputation for neutral fact finding and political independence.” https://t.co/32cF4Fg2XX

  — Jordan Schachtel (@JordanSchachtel) December 2, 2019

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  Horowitz has circulated the report to key figures for legal review, and is rumored to clear to clear Page and other FBI officials of letting their raging hatred of Trump (and love of Clinton) color their work – hence the ‘Teen Vogue’ – tier puff piece. We’re sure she’ll go into greater detail when she writes a book on the whole ‘matter.’

  Highlights

  • Trump’s Oct. 11 impression of her sleeping with Strzok pushed her over the edge. “Honestly, his demeaning fake orgasm was really the straw that broke the camel’s back.“

  • Her extramarital affair with FBI agent Peter Strzok while they were both investigating Trump and Clinton was “the most wrong thing I’ve ever done in my life.”

  “And that’s when I become the source of the president’s personal mockery and insults. Because before this moment in time, there’s not a person outside of my small legal community who knows who I am or what I do. I’m a normal public servant, just a G-15, standard-level lawyer, like every other lawyer at the Justice Department.”

  • Page is”slightly crumbly around the edges the way the president’s other victims are,” and is experiencing something beyond PTSD.

  Does it feel like a trauma? “It is. I wouldn’t even call it PTSD because it’s not over. It’s ongoing. It’s not a historical event that is being relived. It just keeps happening.”

  …

  “It’s almost impossible to describe” what it’s like, she told me. “It’s like being punched in the gut. My heart drops to my stomach when I realize he has tweeted about me again. The president of the United States is calling me names to the entire world. He’s demeaning me and my career. It’s sickening.” 

  • Page is always on edge – avoiding people in MAGA hats as she lives in daily anguish.

  “I’m someone who’s always in my head anyway—so now otherwise normal interactions take on a different meaning. Like, when somebody makes eye contact with me on the Metro, I kind of wince, wondering if it’s because they recognize me, or are they just scanning the train like people do? It’s immediately a question of friend or foe? Or if I’m walking down the street or shopping and there’s somebody wearing Trump gear or a MAGA hat, I’ll walk the other way or try to put some distance between us because I’m not looking for conflict. Really, what I wanted most in this world is my life back.”

  • In response to Trump suggesting she committed treason, Page insists “[T]here’s no fathomable way that I have committed any crime at all, let alone treason…“

  • Page insists that Trump wasn’t the target of the 2016 investigation into his campaign, and that the FBI learned of “the possibility that there’s someone on the Trump campaign coordinating with the Russian government in the release of emails, which will damage the Clinton campaign.”

  “We were very deliberate and conservative about who we first opened on because we recognized how sensitive a situation it was,” Page says. “So the prospect that we were spying on the campaign or even investigating candidate Trump himself is just false. That’s not what we were doing.” 

  • Her text messages with Strzok were ‘cherry picked’ and ‘out of context.’

  Page felt abandoned by the FBI and Justice because of the release of the messages and because the bureau issued no statement defending her and Strzok. “So things get worse,” she continues. “And of course, you know, those texts were selected for their political impact. They lack a lot of context. Many of them aren’t even about him or me. We’re not given an opportunity to provide any context. In a lot of those texts we were talking about other people like our family members or articles we had sent each other.”

  At the end of the day, Page wants us to know that she’s the real victim here. Perhaps she can provide those missing 19,000 text messages for some even better context?

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  “I’m completely nonpartisan you Walmart-smelling Trump supporters” – Lisa Page

  — Jack Posobiec 🇺🇸 (@JackPosobiec) December 2, 2019

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  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 12/02/2019 – 20:44

• 47% Of GDP – This Is Definitely The Scariest Corporate Debt Bubble In U.S. History
  47% Of GDP – This Is Definitely The Scariest Corporate Debt Bubble In U.S. History

  Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

  We are facing a corporate debt bomb that is far, far greater than what we faced in 2008, and we are being warned that this “unexploded bomb” will “amplify everything” once the financial system starts melting down.

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  Thanks to exceedingly low interest rates, over the last decade U.S. corporations have been able to go on the greatest corporate debt binge in history. It has been a tremendous “boom”, but it has also set the stage for a tremendous “bust”. Large corporations all over the country are now really struggling to deal with their colossal debt burdens, and defaults on the riskiest class of corporate debt are on pace to hit their highest level since 2008. Everyone can see that a major corporate debt disaster is looming, but nobody seems to know how to stop it.

  At this point, companies listed on our stock exchanges have accumulated a total of almost 10 trillion dollars of debt. That is equivalent to approximately 47 percent of U.S. GDP…

  A decade of historically low interest rates has allowed companies to sell record amounts of bonds to investors, sending total U.S. corporate debt to nearly $10 trillion, or a record 47% of the overall economy.

  In recent weeks, the Federal Reserve, the International Monetary Fund and major institutional investors such as BlackRock and American Funds all have sounded the alarm about the mounting corporate obligations.

  We have never witnessed a corporate debt crisis of this magnitude.

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  Corporate debt is up a whopping 52 percent since 2008, and this bubble is continually growing.

  And actually the 10 trillion dollar figure is the most conservative number out there. Because if you add in all other forms of corporate debt, the grand total comes to 15.5 trillion dollars. The following comes from Forbes…

  Total corporate debt is actually much higher. Adding the debt of small medium sized enterprises, family businesses, and other business which are not listed in stock exchanges ads another $5.5 trillion. In other words, total US corporate debt is $15.5 trillion, 74% of US GDP.

  Needless to say, this mountain of corporate debt is definitely not sustainable, and I have already noted that defaults are rising. One expert recently explained that all of this debt is “an exploded bomb” and that at some point something will come along to “trigger the explosion”…

  “We are sitting on the top of an unexploded bomb, and we really don’t know what will trigger the explosion,” said Emre Tiftik, a debt specialist at the Institute of International Finance, an industry association.

  Right now a lot of large corporations are so maxed out that they can barely service their debts. So when things start getting really bad for the economy, we could be facing a wave of defaults unlike anything we have ever seen before.

  When asked about what this will mean during the next recession, a finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania warned that it will “make everything happen faster, larger, worse”…

  “It’s going to amplify everything,” said Krista Schwarz, a finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. “It’s going to make everything happen faster, larger, worse. The recession would just be that much deeper.”

  It sounds like she could be a writer for The Economic Collapse Blog.

  Of course I am being a bit silly, but the truth is that there is nothing silly about the giant mountain of debt that our society is facing.

  In addition to our looming corporate debt crisis, U.S. consumers are 14 trillion dollars in debt, state and local government debt levels are at record highs, and the U.S. national debt just hit the 23 trillion dollar mark.

  If you can believe it, we have actually added another 1.3 trillion dollars to the national debt just since last Thanksgiving…

  The federal debt has increased by $1,303,466.578.471.45 since last Thanksgiving, according to data released by the U.S. Treasury.

  That is the largest Thanksgiving-to-Thanksgiving increase in the debt in nine years. The last time the debt increased more from Thanksgiving to Thanksgiving was in 2010, when it increased by $1,785,995,360,978.10.

  It also equals approximately $10,137.48 per household in the United States.

  Adding 1.3 trillion dollars to the national debt in 12 months while things are still relatively stable is utter insanity, and what we are doing to future generations of Americans is beyond criminal.

  And we aren’t even spending the money well. In fact, Senator Rand Paul continues to document how we are wasting money in some of the most ridiculous ways imaginable…

  Sen. Rand Paul is continuing to expose the rampant waste of tax dollars by our government agencies. In a special Fall edition of his Waste Report, the Kentucky senator highlights some of the most wasteful expenditures of our federal government, including a half-a-million-dollar toilet nobody could use and a $22 million project to bring Serbian cheeses up to international standards.

  “Once again, The Waste Report takes a closer look at just some of what the federal government is doing with the American people’s hard-earned money, this time including stories of it continuing to turn over so many taxpayer dollars to the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority, funding research that involves hooking Zebrafish on nicotine, buying textbooks for Afghan students that are subpar or sitting in warehouses, and more in a list that totals over $230 million,” states a press release from Sen. Paul’s office.

  Of course it isn’t just the United States that is drowning under an ocean of red ink. As Bloomberg has detailed, when you total up all forms of debt in the world it comes to a grand total of 250 trillion dollars…

  Zombie companies in China. Crippling student bills in America. Sky-high mortgages in Australia. Another default scare in Argentina.

  A decade of easy money has left the world with a record $250 trillion of government, corporate and household debt. That’s almost three times global economic output and equates to about $32,500 for every man, woman and child on earth.

  So if you have a household of four, your share comes to $130,000.

  Are you ready to pay up?

  In the end, all of this debt will never be paid off. Instead, the bubble will just keep ballooning until it inevitably bursts.

  And when it finally bursts, many are warning of a complete and total meltdown. In fact, Rick Ackerman believes that “a Mad Max scenario” is likely…

  Ackerman contends, “I am a little more bearish than that. I see a Mad Max scenario as inevitable. . . . I try not to think about it because we’ve all got lives to live and kids to raise. . . . When you go back to the calculous of deflation and that every penny of every debt must be paid, if not by the borrower then by the lender, we have already put ourselves into a condition where Social Security is going to fail. Medicare is going to fail. All the ‘just-in-time’ deliveries are going to be in jeopardy. Food from the grocery stores, one day shipping from Amazon, I don’t see how all these things can continue to operate in a condition other than in the false prosperity that we have now. We are at the pinnacle of affluence.”

  I haven’t been able to find anyone that can logically argue that the road that we are currently on has a positive ending.

  The truth is that we are headed for complete and total disaster, and the only real debate is about how long it will take for us to get there.

  So enjoy these moments of relative stability while you still can, because it is only a matter of time before we go over the precipice.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 12/02/2019 – 20:25

  Tags

  Business Finance

  

• PA County Election Turned Into "Nightmare" After Voting Machines Malfunctioned
  PA County Election Turned Into “Nightmare” After Voting Machines Malfunctioned

  A couple of minutes after polls closed in Easton, Pennsylvania on Election Day, the chairwoman of the county Republicans, Lee Snover, realized something had gone horribly wrong. 

  When vote totals began to come in for the Northampton County judge’s race, it was obvious there was a problem. The Democratic candidate, Abe Kassis, only had 164 votes out of 55,000 ballots across 100 precincts. In an area where you can vote for a straight party ticket, it was near a “statistical impossibility”, according to the New York Times. 

  When paper backup ballots were recounted, they showed Kassis winning narrowly, 26,142 to 25,137, over his opponent, the Republican Victor Scomillio. Snover said at about 9:30PM on November 5, her “anxiety began to pick up”. 

  “I’m coming down there and you better let me in,” she told someone at the election office after eventually getting through to them on the phone.

  Matthew Munsey, the chairman of the Northampton County Democrats who helped with the paper ballot recount said: “People were questioning, and even I questioned, that if some of the numbers are wrong, how do we know that there aren’t mistakes with anything else?”

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  The issue in Northampton County continues to highlight fears and mistrust over election security that the nation is feeling on a broader scale heading into 2020. The machines used in Northampton County were also used in Philadelphia and surrounding suburbs, crucial areas for next year’s Presidential election. 

  Calibration of the voting ecosystem is often invoked by those who lose by a small margin. 

  Snover echoed voter concerns: “There are concerns for 2020. Nothing went right on Election Day. Everything went wrong. That’s a problem.”

  Voters around the country say that machines exacerbate an already grueling voting process that is replete with long lines and frustrated poll workers. 

  Michelle Broadhecke of Easton, like many others who watched their Democratic candidate go down in flames in 2016, said her anxiety about elections began after Trump won. 

  She said: “It made me sad because with everything that’s going on, you kind of worry about: Was something tampered with, or was it just a mistake. There’s just too much going on that you worry about those things. And you don’t want the wrong people in the wrong places.”

  No study has been conducted to determine why the machines malfunctioned in Northampton County. The machines stay locked away for 20 days after the election, per state law. The prevailing theory has been a bug in the software and there have been no visible signs of outside meddling, according to a senior intelligence official. 

  Or as Democrats call it, “Russian interference”. 

  County officials say the machines worked as they should have, with the paper ballot backup process working as advertised. 

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  Katina Granger, a spokeswoman for Election Systems & Software, the manufacturer of the machines said: “We also need to focus on the outcome, which is that voter-verified paper ballots provided fair, accurate and legal election results, as indicated by the county’s official results reporting and successful postelection risk-limiting audit. The election was legal and fair.”

  The automatic tests in Northampton proved to be problematic in that they didn’t even cast votes for every candidate.

  The machines were rolled out and used anyway. 

   

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 12/02/2019 – 20:05

  Tags

  Politics

  

• Mauldin: America's "Full Employment" Hides A Dirty Secret
  Mauldin: America’s “Full Employment” Hides A Dirty Secret

  Authored by John Mauldin via MauldinEconomics.com,

  Should just being “employed” make people/workers happy?

  On one level, any job is better than no job. But we also derive much of our identities and self-esteem from our work.

  If you aren’t happy with it, you’re probably not happy generally.

  Unhappy people can still vote and are often easy marks for shameless politicians to manipulate. Their spending patterns change, too.

  So it ends up affecting everyone and everything.

  Unhappy Employment

  There’s this plight of people who, while not necessarily poor, aren’t where they think they should be—and perhaps once were.

  This disappointment isn’t just in their minds; the economy really has changed. Yes, you can probably get a job if you are physically able, but the odds it will support you and a family, if you have one, are lower than they once were.

  The US Private Sector Job Quality Index aims to give data on this… distinguishing between low-wage, often part-time service jobs and higher-wage career positions.

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  What they have found so far isn’t encouraging.

  Looking at “Production & Non-Supervisory” positions (essentially middle-class jobs), the inflation-adjusted wage gap between low-wage/low-hours jobs and high-wage/high-hours jobs widened almost fourfold between 1990 and 2018.

  Worse, the good jobs are shrinking in number. In 1990, almost half (47%) were in the “high-wage” category. In 2018, it was only 37%.

  Work More, Earn Less

  Much of the wage gap came not from the hourly rates, but from the number of hours worked.

  The labor market has basically split in two categories with little in between.

  There are low-wage service jobs in which you get paid only when the employer really needs you, and higher-wage jobs that pay steady wages.

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  The number of young people working in the so-called gig economy, working multiple part-time jobs, is growing. And part-time jobs generally are not high-paying jobs.

  This also helps explain why so many relatively well-off people feel like they are always working and have no free time. They aren’t imagining it. Their employers really do keep them busy.

  So we really have two generally unhappy groups: people who want to work more and raise their income, and people who want to work less but keep their income.

  What’s the answer? We need to find one, and to do so we must talk about it. And that is possibly an even bigger problem.

  Broken Politics

  The national anxiety level got where it is for many different reasons. Some are largely outside our control, like the technological advances that have replaced some human jobs.

  Hence political decisions need to be made.

  The problem is that the ideological gap between the median Democrat and the median Republican has widened into a huge chasm in this century.

  What as recently as 2004 was a mountain-shaped distribution with a small dip in between now looks more like a volcanic crater.

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  The simple fact is that the “center” is shrinking. It is hard to consider compromises when positions are so hardened that no compromise is allowable.

  Whatever the reason for this (which is another debate), it prevents our political system from addressing important issues. This leaves an anxious population to feel either completely abandoned, or thinking it must align with one side or the other just to survive.

  *  *  *

  I predict an unprecedented crisis that will lead to the biggest wipeout of wealth in history. And most investors are completely unaware of the pressure building right now. Learn more here.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 12/02/2019 – 19:45

  Tags

  Labor

  

• 460 Billion Reasons Why Bond Yields May Jump Next Year
  460 Billion Reasons Why Bond Yields May Jump Next Year

  One week ago, we discussed  the ongoing conundrum which has stumped Wall Street strategists, namely the record outflows from equity funds, surpassing even the year of the global financial crisis…

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  … as stocks hit all time highs, not on earnings growth but entirely due to PE multiple expansion…

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  … which Goldman summarized by saying that “with S&P 500 earnings on track for  roughly zero growth from this time last year, solid returns likely would not have been possible without central bank support.”

  We also discussed what JPMorgan thought would finally resolve this conundrum: in his weekly Flows and Liquidity report, JPMorgan quant Nikolas Panigirtzoglou wrote that as a result of the tremendous market performance in 2019 which would finally sucker retail investors in, he expects a “Great Rotation II” as investors finally flee bonds funds and rush to allocate money to equities:

  If this view proves correct and the overall cyclical picture looks better over the coming months and quarters, retail investors are more likely to shift from a risk-off mode to a risk-on mode next year, by reversing this year’s equity fund selling and by reducing drastically this year’s extreme bond fund buying. Such a dramatic flow shift would be equivalent to another Great Rotation, i.e. a repeat of the abrupt shift away from retail investors accumulating bond funds to buying equity funds seen previously in 2013. In other words, 2020 would be the year of Great Rotation II, in a repeat of 2013 the year of Great Rotation I. – JPMorgan

  Whether or not JPM’s thesis for a great flow of funds from bonds to stocks will finally come true – recall, this is the base case assumption at the start of every year, and so far it has proven wrong for 6 years in a row – remains to be seen, it led to an interesting tangent: if investors dump bonds in a year when the US budget deficit is expected to be well over $1 trillion and when foreign buyers have been increasingly shrinking their purchases of US bonds…

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  … just who will buy all those Treasurys the US plans to sell in 2020 if retail says no?

  That just also happens to be the topic of Panigirtzoglou’s latest note, in which he looks at the consequences of his prior Great Rotation call, and concludes that if he is right, that would be particularly bad news for US Treasurys, which could find themselves with a supply/demand shortfall as high as $460 billion in 2020, a sharp reversal to this year’s $400 billion improvement.

  Starting with the supply picture, JPM observes that on bond supply, 2019 saw the fourth consecutive year of increases in bond supply, rising to $3.13tr, the highest level since 2009.

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  Some more details: over the past four years, annual global bond supply has gone up by almost $1tr driven by both government bond and spread product supply. This $1tr increase over the past four years reflects both an increase in  government deficits led by the US, but also an increase in corporate bond supply as companies took advantage of lower bond yields globally to pre-finance their needs and increase their leverage.

  The good news here is that JPMorgan forecasts that 2020 will see a significant reversal in recent years’ bond supply trend with a $375bn decrease, bringing the global annual bond supply to $2.76tr in 2020, its lowest level since 2016. This forecast of a $375bn decline in global bond supply next year is driven by an expected reduction in both government  (-$211bn) and spread product (-$164bn) supply.

  The expected  reduction in government bond supply reflects a decline in net supply in the US as the Fed is no longer contracting its balance sheet and as maturing MBS are re-invested into USTs (up to a monthly cap of $20bn), which is only partially offset by a higher government deficit in the UK and Eurozone. The expected reduction in spread bond supply next year is driven by lower corporate bond issuance across the US, Europe and EM, as corporates globally appear to have pre-financed some of their needs in previous years and as they try to rein in their leverage globally. The decline in corporate bond supply globally is only partially offset by higher supply in US mortgages (MBS) next year as the Fed reinvests a portion of MBS prepayments and maturities into Treasuries and the US economy improves, and by higher supply in US Munis, leaving our total spread product supply estimate for 2020 lower by $164bn relative to 2019.

  What about notable demand changes?

  Here, the two biggest surprises of this year have been in bond fund demand by retail investors and in bond purchases by G4 (US, Eurozone, Japan, UK) commercial banks. The former saw close to a record high annualized pace of $850bn this year, while the latter at $640bn saw its highest level since 2009 (this surge in bond purchases may also be behind the September repo market fireworks as banks found themselves holding on to too much TSYs at the expense of cash).

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  For JPM both of these levels are unsustainable and the bank expects some normalization in 2020. In terms of the arguments for an expected normalization in the bond fund flow next year, JPM reminds us of the three reasons listed in last week’s  publication, based on the historical pattern following extreme bond fund flows in a calendar year, based on the response of bond fund flows to previous year’s returns and based on our expectation that retail investors will adopt more of a risk-on behavior next year in response to an improvement in the cyclical picture. As a result, the biggest US bank pencils in a deterioration in bond demand of around $600bn next year.

  In listing its arguments for a “normalization” in bond purchases by G4 commercial banks in 2020, Panigirtzoglou sees three reasons:

  1) Bond purchases by G4 commercial banks in 2019 were around $300bn higher than the level that would be justified by the reduction in the QE impulse between 2018 and 2019. This QE impulse was reduced by close to $760bn between 2018 and 2019, and applying a historical beta of around -0.5 would justify an increase in bond purchases by around $380bn, i.e. from -$30bn in 2018 to $350bn in 2019. Instead, we got $640bn for 2019 which is almost $300bn higher.

  2) One reason for this $300bn of “excess “ bond purchases has been a bigger than in previous years expansion of G4 commercial bank balance sheets, by $4tr this year i.e. from a total size of $85tr in 2018 to $89tr to 2019. This $4tr balance sheet expansion is more than double the average pace of the previous five years. A potential normalization in commercial bank balance sheet expansion pace from $4tr this year to $1.5tr-$2tr next year should be accompanied by a normalization in bond purchases also. This implies that much of this $300bn of “excess” bond purchases should be unwound next year.

  3) Commercial banks were also caught up with short duration stance at the end of last year relative to historical averages, and since then they have been struggling to move back to average by raising their bond purchases. This short duration stance is indicated by Figure 3, which measures the sensitivity of US banks’ weekly changes in net unrealized gains in their available-for-sale portfolios to changes in UST yields.

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  When this metric is very negative or below average it implies a long duration stance by US commercial banks and when this metric is above its historical average it implies a short duration stance. As can be seen in Figure 3 US banks appear to have shifted to short duration stance during 2018 and as a result they were caught wrong-footed this year. This short duration stance has yet to normalize according to Figure 3, something that creates upside risk to commercial bank bond purchases in 2020.

  So what does this all mean for next year?

  If one excludes the Fed’s T-bill purchases which – for now – do not entail duration (although they will in 2020), the increase in the QE impulse between 2019 and 2020 is $460bn. Applying a historical beta of around -0.5 would justify a decrease in G4 commercial bank bond purchases by around $230bn, i.e. from $640bn in 2019 to $410bn in 2020. Point 2) suggests that $300bn of “excess” bond purchases by commercial banks should be largely unwound next year as the pace of commercial bank balance sheet expansion normalizes. But the point on current short duration stance provides an offset as it creates upside risk to commercial bank bond purchases into 2020. As a result, JPM assumes that half of this $300bn of “excess” bond purchases by commercial banks should be unwound next year. In turn this implies a forecast of G4 commercial bank bond purchases for 2020 of $410-$150bn=$260bn, or a deterioration in bond demand of around $380bn.

  Then there are the G4 central banks which saw a second year of significant downshifting in bond demand in 2019, with the 2018 reduction in bond demand of $1.1tr relative to 2017 followed by a further $750bn reduction in 2019, largely on the back of the BOJ slowdown in QE. This year’s negative impulse came as a result of the Fed continuing its balance sheet contraction up to 1 August, which saw around a $300bn decline in Treasury and MBS holdings, as well as the BoJ continuing its stealth taper and the ECB having ended its net purchases in end-2018 before re-starting purchases in November. A year ago JPM had expected around a $550bn reduction, and the majority of this year’s negative surprise came from the BoJ’s more aggressive slowing of net purchases. Moreover, when the Fed shifted back to balance sheet expansion to accommodate for the greater demand for its liabilities, it chose to do so via T-bills which is excluded for now from JPM’s supply and demand analysis.

  For next year, the Fed is set to continue reinvesting maturing MBS securities up to a monthly cap of $20bn into Treasuries, which represents a re-allocation rather than a net change in aggregate bond demand. And while T-bills are excluded from a net coupon analysis, the fact that JPM’s rates researchers expect T-bill supply to be negative next year means we see a portion of the Fed’s balance sheet expansion next year likely to be conducted via Treasury purchases. For the ECB, we expect it to continue buying bonds at a €20bn/m pace for the course of 2020. Finally, the BoJ’s stealth taper process is expected to continue, with the net purchase amounts likely approaching zero. With the BoE on hold in terms of balance sheet policy, overall for the G4 central banks JPMorgan expect an improvement in bond demand of around $460bn.

  Other sources of demand include official demand, such as EM reserve managers, whose net bond purchases in 2019 amount to only $20bn, which is weaker than JPM’s projection from a year ago of $130bn. For next year, JPM see essentially flat bond demand from reserve managers, as the modestly positive current account balances for EM economies have offsets from depreciation pressures on EM currencies over the balance of the year and the prospect of weaker oil price.

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  Then there are pension funds and insurance companies. For these buyers of bonds, JPM estimates that net bond demand for 2020 will remain at an above average pace consistent with this year’s pace of around $620bn.

  Putting it all together, the combination of a $840bn deterioration in bond demand and a $375bn decrease in bond supply results in a net deterioration in the bond supply/demand balance of around $460bn in 2020, reversing this year’s $400bn improvement

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  In turn this implies potentially substantial upward pressure on bond yields next year particularly if JPM’s bond fund and G4 commercial bank bond purchases estimates for 2020 prove correct; this is because of all the different  components of demand or supply, these two are the ones that have exhibited the highest correlation with annual bond yield changes.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 12/02/2019 – 19:25

  Tags

  Business Finance

  

• Man Arrested After Car Plows Into Children Outside English School, Killing 12-Year-Old Boy
  Man Arrested After Car Plows Into Children Outside English School, Killing 12-Year-Old Boy

  Three days after the latest terrorist attack in England on the capital’s London Bridge, a man, 51, was arrested on suspicion of murder and attempted murder after a car he allegedly drove plowed into pedestrians outside Debden Park High School in Essex, killing a 12-year-old boy and injuring five others before the driver fled the scene.

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  The police said two 15-year-old boys, a 13-year-old boy, a girl of 16 and a 53-year-old woman were either treated at the scene or rushed to hospital following the ordeal.

  The incident happened at about 3:20 p.m. on Monday when police were called to reports that a number of pedestrians had been struck by a silver Ford KA near Debden Park High School in Loughton, a town about 21 kilometers (13 miles) northeast of London.

  #BREAKING: major story developing:
  A car drove in a number of children killing 1 and injuring many others outside a school in #Essex England.
  Driver drove off, police are searching for the vehicle. pic.twitter.com/hWv6syxUfA

  — News flash (@BRNewsFlash) December 2, 2019

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  “A 12-year-old local boy was taken to hospital, where he sadly died,” Essex Police said in a statement. Five others suffered non-life threatening injuries: two 15-year-old boys, one 13-year-old boy, one 16-year-old girl, and a 53-year-old woman.

  “We believe that the collision was deliberate and as such we have launched a murder investigation,” Police Chief Superintendent Tracey Harman said on late Monday night.

  “We are investigating whether or not this incident may be connected to another incident nearby.”

  Police also revealed checks are being made to see if there is a connection to a similar incident, reported to be at Roding Valley High School, earlier in the day.

  Before the arrest, Harman said police had launched a search for a local man, 51-year-old Terry Glover, in connection with the attack. “We’ve searched a number of addresses this evening in an attempt to find him and the searches for him [and the vehicle] are continuing,” she said. A possible motive was not immediately known.

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  Helen Gascoyne, the school’s head, said the community is ‘devastated’ by the death of one of its students.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 12/02/2019 – 19:15

  Tags

  Law Crime

  

• Tesla Sells More Products It Doesn't (Yet) Make, Than Products It Does
  Tesla Sells More Products It Doesn’t (Yet) Make, Than Products It Does

  Submitted by Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research

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  A few things we think are worth considering when it comes to TSLA – out of the 9 products they’ve announced and sell, they only actively make 3 of them (and demand for those three products appear to have peaked) while the other 6 products they sell are vaporware, i.e., products that do not exist – yes, you heard that right:

  TSLA’s current cars in production include:

  • Model 3 (ASPs and units are in severe decline, and sales were down -49% y/y in Oct. in its biggest market, the USA)
  • Model X (sales have collapsed in both the US and globally)
  • Model S (same as Model X)

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  Meanwhile, here are TSLA’s current cars/products not in production:

  • Roadster (unveil was 2yrs ago)
  • Semi (unveil was 2yrs ago)
  • Model Y (TSLA refuses to mention how many pre-orders they’ve received here)
  • Cybertruck ($100 fully-refundable deposits on a car that will likely cost $60K, or  0.167%, is the equivalent of someone putting $1.67 toward an $1,000 i-Phone & apple calling it an order)
  • ATV
  • FSD (to be FSD, TSLA would have had to achieve level 5 autonomy… they’re at level 2)

  So… TSLA has more vaporware products (i.e., stuff that doesn’t exist) than real products for sale; and, it’s real products are seeing large negative y/y growth currently.

  Oh… and what about E. Musk’s promise that:

  • TSLA would have flying cars (he made this claim 322 days ago),
  • TSLA would create break pads that never need to be replaced (he made this claim 336 days ago),
  • TSLA would have a base on Mars in 2028 (he made this claim 432 days ago),
  • TSLA would have a one hour body shop (this claim happened 437 days ago),
  • he would fix the water in all Flint houses above FDA levels (he made this claim 504 days ago),
  • there would be no more mass layoffs (533 days, and multiple layoffs, ago), etc.?

  The point is… each claim he makes is picked up by every media site and taken as “gospel”; so, maybe the media should go to this website (link) and start holding him to some of these claims?

   

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 12/02/2019 – 19:05

  Tags

  Business Finance

  

• China Bans US Military Visits To Hong Kong, Sanctions US NGOs Over Support For Protests 
  China Bans US Military Visits To Hong Kong, Sanctions US NGOs Over Support For Protests 

  China’s Foreign Ministry said Monday that it had suspended all US warships and military aircraft from visiting Hong Kong, and also declared sanctions against several US non-government organizations (NGOs) for their support of pro-democracy protesters, reported Bloomberg.

  “In response to the unreasonable behaviors of the US side, the Chinese government decides to suspend the review of requests by US military ships and aircraft to visit Hong Kong as of today,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said.

  Beijing has suspended requests by US military ships and aircraft to visit #HongKong. MOFA Spokeswoman Hua Chunying said that a number of US-based non-governmental organizations, including NED, will be subjected to sanctions from China, in today’s press briefing. pic.twitter.com/LvknrixIrD

  — China Daily (@ChinaDaily) December 2, 2019

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  China last week announced that it would make firm countermeasures to President Trump’s signed Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act that went into law.

  The new law permits Washington to impose new sanctions or revoke Hong Kong’s special trading status over China’s human rights violations.

  The Foreign Ministry’s response to the signing of the bill last week accused Washington of “bullying behavior,” “disregarding the facts,” and “publicly supporting violent criminals.”

  Chunying said that “we urge the US to correct the mistakes and stop interfering in our internal affairs. China will take further steps if necessary to uphold Hong Kong’s stability and prosperity and China’s sovereignty.”

  About a year ago, on positive signs that a deal was likely at the 2018 G20 Buenos Aires summit, China allowed the USS Ronald Reagan and other ships in its strike group to dock in Hong kong. Now it seems that China will force Hong Kong to deny port calls attempted by the US.

  Chunying also said the sanctioned NGOs include the National Endowment for Democracy, the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs, the International Republican Institute, Human Rights Watch, and Freedom House.

  “They shoulder some responsibility for the chaos in Hong Kong, and they should be sanctioned and pay the price,” said added.

  China’s yuan weakened to 7.04 per dollar, the lowest level in at least a week, following the statement from the Foreign Ministry on Monday morning.

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  China Central Television reported that Beijing could take further actions on the US if there’s more interference.

  Global Times editor noted that Beijing would come up with additional sanctions against the US if the Trump administration continues to interfere in Hong Kong.

  These measures will have actual impact on related organizations and departments of the US side. It shows China will not allow the US to wantonly make waves on Hong Kong issue. If the US side continues to provoke over Hong Kong, China will come up with follow-up action. pic.twitter.com/e8H946fVL9

  — Hu Xijin 胡锡进 (@HuXijin_GT) December 2, 2019

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  And as we noted last week, China spares trade in the first and second retaliations to the Hong Kong bill. Though that might not be the case in upcoming retaliations as the trade war is likely to deepen. 

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 12/02/2019 – 18:45

  Tags

  Politics

  

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• Zuesse: Why A Second American Revolution Is Necessary For The Entire World
  Zuesse: Why A Second American Revolution Is Necessary For The Entire World

  Authored by Eric Zuesse via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

  On November 11th, the very disturbing but clearly true “Lessons To Learn From The Coup In Bolivia” was posted to the Web. That anonymous author (a German intelligence analyst) documented the evilness of the overthrow of Evo Morales in Bolivia, and the threat now clearly posed to the world by the US regime — a spreading cancer of expansionist fascism, led from Washington. But, even more than this, he indicated that unless the individuals who are responsible for the advancing fascism are executed, there won’t be any real hope for democracy anywhere in the world.

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  Either this impunity will stop, or else the spread of the US international dictatorship — not only by CIA coups such as this, but by illegal international invasions such as of Iraq 2003, Libya 2011, Syria 2012-, and Yemen 2015-, —  will continue and will engulf in misery ultimately the entire world. He makes clear the complicity of US ‘news’-media in the lies that ‘justify’ this coup (and ‘justified’ those invasions). It’s, by now, clearly the way the US regime functions. Of course, none of those media will publish any such truth; they all cover-up constantly for the regime, because they actually are an essential part of it. (All of these invasions and coups are based on nothing but lies, and the media are a necessary part of that.) Censorship in America is thus actually extreme, and constant.

  For example: how many US-and-allied media have even reported that fascists took over in Bolivia?

  Instead, we’ve got newspaper editorials such as the New York Times blaming the extraordinarily successful and popular democratically elected President of Bolivia for the coup which overthrew him and replaced him by fascists (and never using the word “coup,” except once derisively, by saying that “British Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, cried ‘coup’” — as if it weren’t a coup — and making no mention whatsoever that it had been done by committed fascists). This ‘news’-paper’s ‘news’-report the prior day had been headlined with the ridiculously anodyne “Bolivian Leader Evo Morales Steps Down”, and it asserted that “Mr. Morales was once widely popular,” as if he weren’t still so, and as if all of the polling as well as the last Presidential election showed him still to be “widely popular”, but the CIA-and-oligarchs’ organized fascist mob hated him, and brought him down.

  Will the CIA and generals, and Bolivia’s oligarchs, be executed for that? Of course, they should be. If they aren’t, then how can democracy ever be restored there? It’s one, or the other — it’s continuation of the dictatorship, or else it will be restoration of the democracy — at this stage. There can be no ‘reconciliation’, now. This is an irreconcilable state of war that exists between the coupsters and the Bolivian people. There will be bloodshed — and the more so as the coupsters remain in power and Morales not be quickly restored fully to the powers to which he had repeatedly been popularly elected. However, he won’t be able safely to return to his home and his homeland, unless and until the coupsters are executed, because, otherwise, they certainly would execute him first, and he would never be able to feel safe there.

  Because of what the coupsters did, this will inevitably be a war to the death — and not only for the principal persons on each side, but for hundreds, or probably thousands, of their followers. What the coupsters did has thus precipitated, inevitably, massive future bloodshed in Bolivia. And yet the US regime’s lying press supports what was done. The truths that they know they hide from the public. This constant lying will be necessary in order for the US regime’s extensions such as the OAS and the IMF to provide the coupsters the public support that will enable the Bolivian coup-regime to be granted international ‘legitimacy’, which will be necessary in order for that regime’s actions to be treated as legally valid and binding in international business.

  Another recent example of this spreading cancer of the US regime’s fascism was the US coup that installed a rabidly fascist regime in Ukraine during February 2014. Even today, the US-and-allied ‘news’-media cover that  coup up, too, as having been a ‘democratic revolution.’ (How much of what is shown on that linked video was reported honestly in media such as the New York Times and Fox News?) Furthermore, when the EU learned, after the coup was over, that it had been a coup (instead of the democratic revolution they had thought it to have been), they were shocked, but plodded on to take Ukraine into the EU because they mistakenly thought that this would be of benefit to the EU nations, and not recognizing that it would turn out to be instead an albatross, which, even today, is nowhere closer to meeting EU standards than it had been on the day of the coup, and is actually far less so than it was even back before the coup occurred.

  How can the public, in any country, possibly control the Government if they are being so viciously and routinely lied-to by the Government and by its ‘news’-media? Democracy is impossible in such a country as this. It is a sham. Multiple political parties don’t mean that they’re not all controlled by the 607 US billionaires — some who are Democrats, and others who are Republicans, but all of whom are actually lying fascists. Clearly, dishonesty rules, and it’s bought by the few individuals who control most of the nation’s wealth (and ‘news’-media). Here is an example within the US itself: the 2016 US Presidential ‘election’, which was actually a Presidential selection, by the billionaires.

  Even decades after the entirely illegal tortures that the CIA perpetrated after 9/11 and which produced no usable information, the CIA officials and George W. Bush are not prosecuted for having broken both American and international laws, and the mere fact of that illegality has made impossible any court-trial anywhere of the alleged terrorists who remain at Guantanamo. The US regime is rampant and unrestrained illegality, lying, and it’s even blatant violence, and injustice, all with no accountability whatsoever.

  Unfortunately, the only global solution would be a second American Revolution, but, this time, the news-media are far less honest, and so almost no support exists amongst the US population for doing that.

  Consequently, the outlook for the future, worldwide, is grim.

  If the warning (hidden by the media as it is), this time from Bolivia, is not heeded, how can this cancer ever be stopped from engulfing the entire world?

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sun, 12/01/2019 – 23:30

  Tags

  Politics

  

• Russia Air Launches Hypersonic Missile In Arctic As Tensions Surge 
  Russia Air Launches Hypersonic Missile In Arctic As Tensions Surge 

  Reuters is reporting that Russian state-owned TASS is making big claims this weekend that a Russian military jet has air-launched a hypersonic missile in the Arctic. 

  TASS cites several Russian military sources, who said a Mikoyan MiG-31 interceptor jet air-launched a Kinjal (Dagger) hypersonic missile over Russia’s part of the Arctic earlier this month.

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  As we’ve recently noted, Russia has been aggressively expanding its military presence in the Arctic. It has also been increasing exploration activities in the region, such as oil and gas and mineral extraction.

  TASS quoted one of the sources in saying, “the tests took place in mid-November.” 

  The MiG-31K took off from the Olenegorsk airfield in the northern Murmansk region. It fired the hypersonic missile at a ground target located at the Pemboi training ground in Russia’s Arctic Komi region. 

  Last month, we mentioned that Russia has been installing early warning radar systems across the Komi Republic and the Murmansk region in northern Russia. The radar systems are expected to become operational by 2022, will monitor Arctic airspace for ballistic missile attacks, and monitor aircraft in the region.

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  In Septemeber, Russia deployed S-400 Triumph systems on the Novaya Zemlya archipelago in the Arctic.

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  The Danish Defence Intelligence Service published a report last week that said, “a great power play is shaping up” between Russia, the US, and China, which has undoubtedly increased tensions in the Arctic region. The reason for the elevated tension is that $35 trillion worth of natural resources could be hiding underneath the Arctic Ocean floor. 

  Russia’s militarization of the Arctic is to also defend its “Polar Silk Road” as warming temperatures give way to new shipping lanes and economic opportunities.

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  Washington has widely criticized Moscow for its increased presence in the Arctic.

  Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently responded to US criticism, indicating that Moscow isn’t intimidating anyone in the Arctic, noting that increased defense capabilities in the region are to protect its assets.

  The Arctic’s vast amount of resources will be a significant topic of the 2020s, and beyond, the first country to secure the region with military force could be the next superpower of the world. 

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sun, 12/01/2019 – 23:00

  Tags

  Environment

  Politics

  

• A Wicked Cocktail Of Corporate Greed, Social Media, & Opioids Is Slashing US Life Expectancy Rates
  A Wicked Cocktail Of Corporate Greed, Social Media, & Opioids Is Slashing US Life Expectancy Rates

  Authored by Robert Bridge via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

  Following decades of increased life expectancy rates, Americans have been dying earlier for three consecutive years since 2014, turning the elusive quest for the ‘American Dream’ into a real-life nightmare for many. Corporate America must accept some portion of the blame for the looming disaster.

  Something is killing Americans and researchers have yet to find the culprit. But we can risk some intuitive guesses.

  According to researchers from the Center on Society and Health, Virginia Commonwealth University School of Medicine, American life expectancy has not kept pace with that of other wealthy countries and is now in fact decreasing.

  The National Center for Health Statistics reported that life expectancy in the United States peaked (78.9 years) in 2014 and subsequently dropped for 3 consecutive years, hitting 78.6 years in 2017. The decrease was most significant among men (0.4 years) than women (0.2 years) and happened across racial-ethnic lines: between 2014 and 2016, life expectancy decreased among non-Hispanic white populations (from 78.8 to 78.5 years), non-Hispanic black populations (from 75.3 years to 74.8 years), and Hispanic populations (82.1 to 81.8 years).

  “By 2014, midlife mortality was increasing across all racial groups, caused by drug overdoses, alcohol abuse, suicides, and a diverse list of organ system diseases,” wrote researchers Steven H. Woolf and Heidi Schoomaker in a study that appears in the latest issue of the prestigious Journal of the American Medical Association.

  At the very beginning of the report, Woolf and Schoomaker reveal that the geographical area with the largest relative increases occurred “in the Ohio Valley and New England.”

  “The implications for public health and the economy are substantial,” they added, “making it vital to understand the underlying causes.”

  Incidentally, it would be difficult for any observer of the U.S. political scene to read that passage without immediately connecting it to the 2016 presidential election between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.

  Taking advantage of the deep industrial decline that has long plagued the Ohio Valley, made up of Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, West Virginia, Pennsylvania and Kentucky, Trump successfully tapped into a very real social illness, at least partially connected to economic stagnation, which helped propel him into the White House.

  Significantly, thirty-seven states witnessed significant jumps in midlife mortality in the years leading up to 2017. As the researchers pointed out, however, the trend was concentrated in certain states, many of which, for example in New England, did not support Trump in 2016.

  “Between 2010 and 2017, the largest relative increases in mortality occurred in New England (New Hampshire, 23.3%; Maine, 20.7%; Vermont, 19.9%, Massachusetts 12.1%) and the Ohio Valley (West Virginia, 23.0%; Ohio, 21.6%; Indiana, 14.8%; Kentucky, 14.7%), as well as in New Mexico (17.5%), South Dakota (15.5%), Pennsylvania (14.4%), North Dakota (12.7%), Alaska (12.0%), and Maryland (11.0%). In contrast, the nation’s most populous states (California, Texas, and New York) experienced relatively small increases in midlife mortality.

  Eight of the 10 states with the highest number of excess deaths were in the industrial Midwest or Appalachia, whereas rural US counties experienced greater increases in midlife mortality than did urban counties.

  A tragic irony of the study suggests that greater access to healthcare, notably among the more affluent white population, actually correlates to an increase in higher mortality rates. The reason is connected to the out-of-control prescription of opioid drugs to combat pain and depression.

  “The sharp increase in overdose deaths that began in the 1990s primarily affected white populations and came in 3 waves,” the report explained: (1) the introduction of OxyContin in 1996 and overuse of prescription opioids, followed by (2) increased heroin use, often by patients who had become addicted to prescription opioids, and (3) the subsequent emergence of potent synthetic opioids (eg, fentanyl analogues)—the latter triggering a large post-2013 increase in overdose deaths.

  “That white populations first experienced a larger increase in overdose deaths than nonwhite populations may reflect their greater access to health care (and thus prescription drugs).”

  In September, Purdue Pharma, the manufacturer of OxyContin, reached a tentative settlement with 23 states and more than 2,000 cities and counties that sued the company, owned by the Sackler family, over its role in the opioid crisis

  Other factors also helped to drive up the U.S. mortality rate, including alcoholic liver disease and suicides, 85% of which occurred with a firearm or other method.

  The United States spends more on health care than any other country, yet its overall health report card fares worse than those of other wealthy countries. Americans experience higher rates of illness and injury and die earlier than people in other high-income nations.

  Researchers were perplexed but not surprised by the data as there existed clear signs back in the 1980s that the United States was heading for a cliff as far as longevity rates go.

  So what is it that’s claiming the life of Americans, many at the prime of their life, at a faster pace than in the past? The reality is that it is likely to be an accumulation of negative factors that are finally beginning to take a toll. For example, apart from the opioid crisis, there has also been an almost total collapse of union representation across Corporate America, which has essentially crushed any form of workplace democracy. This author, a former member of three worker unions, witnessed this egregious abuse of corporate power firsthand, which is apparent by the total stagnation of wages for many decades.

  Today’s real average wage – that is, after accounting for inflation – has about the same purchasing power it did about half a century ago. Meanwhile, in the majority of cases, increases in salary have a marked tendency to go to the highest-paid tier of executives.

  In a report by Pew Research, “real terms average hourly earnings peaked more than 45 years ago: The $4.03-an-hour rate recorded in January 1973 had the same purchasing power that $23.68 would today.”

  One needs only consider the growing mountain of tuition debt now consuming the paychecks of many university graduates, many of whom have yet to land their dream 6-figure job from their relatively worthless liberal education, to better understand the quiet desperation that exists across the country.

  At the same time, the exponential rise in the use of social media, which has been proven to trigger depression and loneliness in users, also deserves serious consideration. What society is experiencing with its massive online presence is a total overhaul as to the way human beings relate to each other. Presently, it would be very difficult to argue that the changes have been positive; in fact, they seem to be contributing to the early demise of millions of Americans in the prime of life.

  Taken together, abusive labor practices that ignores workplace democracy, the epidemic of opioid usage, compounded by the anti-social features of ‘social media’ suggests a perfect storm of factors precipitating the rise of early deaths in the United States. Since all of these areas fall in one way or another under the control of corporate power, this powerful agency must find ways to help address the problem. The future success of America depends upon it.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sun, 12/01/2019 – 22:30

  Tags

  Social Issues

  

• Macau Casino Revenue Plunges Amid Chinese Slowdown
  Macau Casino Revenue Plunges Amid Chinese Slowdown

  When the Chinese economy is booming, Mainlanders head to Macau to wager some of their disposable income at casinos. When the economy decelerates, sort of like what’s happening at the moment, gamblers stay home because of economic pessimism. 

  New data from the Gaming Inspection & Coordination Bureau, first reported by Bloomberg, shows gross gaming revenue for Nov. was $2.8 billion, down 8.5% YoY. 

  Year to date, gross gaming revenue sagged 2.4%, comes at a time when the Chinese government has told its citizens to embrace lower-economic growth. 

  Macau’s gross gaming revenue is expected to record its first yearly decline since 2016, as several headwinds have developed. 

  Several months ago, JP Morgan analyst DS Kim told Reuters that the casino slump in Macau is due to “social unrest in Hong Kong, tough year-on-year comparison, negative headlines around junkets, and macro headwinds.”

  Credit Suisse Group analyst Kenneth Fong said Visa policies to Macau had been tightened ahead of President Xi Jinping’s visit this month. These restrictions, Fong said, are hurting visitation numbers into the late year. 

  The Bloomberg Intelligence index of Macau casino operators slipped 3.4% in November. Though the index is still up for the year, it has dropped 20% from a peak in Apr. 

  Wynn Macau Ltd.HK is down more than 42% since 2Q18 highs. 

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  With no turn up in the China Momentum Indicator, there’s a high probability that Macau’s gaming industry will continue decelerating into 2020. 

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  World stocks are ignoring the slowdown in China and in the Macau gaming industry.

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  Gaming industries in Macau and the US appear to exhibit signs of weakness. 

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  The global gaming industry appears weak, as well. Maybe highlights how consumers across the world are pulling back on casino spending as the global trade recession is imminent. 

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  Tyler Durden
  
  Sun, 12/01/2019 – 22:00

  Tags

  Business Finance

  

• Sea-Change For Canada Foreign Policy As Freeland Replaced By Pro-Chinese Politico
  Sea-Change For Canada Foreign Policy As Freeland Replaced By Pro-Chinese Politico

  Authored by Matthew Ehret via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

  In Chrystia Freeland’s 2012 book Plutocrats, Canada’s leading Rhodes Scholar laid out a surprisingly clear analysis of the two camps of elites who she explained would, by their very nature, battle for control of the newly emerging system as the old paradigm collapsed.

  In her book and article series, she described the “practical populist politician” which has tended to be adherent to business interests and personal gain during past decades vs the new breed of “technocrat” which has an enlightened non-practical (ie: Malthusian) worldview, willing to make monetary sacrifices for the “greater good”.

  She further defined the “good Plutocrats” vs “bad Plutocrats”.

  Good Plutocrats included the likes of George Soros, Warren Buffet, Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos who made their billions under the free-for-all epoch of globalization, but who were willing to adapt to the new rules of the post-globalization game. This was a game which she defined in an absurd 2013 TED Talk as a “green New Deal” of global regulation under a de-carbonized (and depopulated) green economy.

  For those “bad plutocrats” unwilling to play by the new rules (ie: the Trumps, Putins or any industrialist who refused to commit seppuku on the altar of Gaia), they would simply go extinct. This threat was re-packaged by Canada’s “other” globalist puppet Mark Carney, who recently said “If some companies and industries fail to adjust to this new world, they will fail to exist.”

  Of course, when Freeland formulated these threats in 2011, China’s Belt and Road had not yet existed, nor had the Russia-China alliance which together are now challenging the regime-change driven world order in remarkably successful strides. The thought that nationalism could possibly make a comeback in the west was as unthinkable as the failure of free trade deals like NAFTA or the TPP.

  As of November 18, 2019, Freeland has found herself cut down a notch by the “plutocrats” that she has worked so assiduously to destroy since becoming Canada’s Foreign Minister in 2017 when she ousted a Foreign Minister (Stephane Dion) who had called for a renewed cooperation with Russia on space, counter-terrorism and arctic development with Sergei Lavrov. Freeland’s unrepentant support for Ukrainian Nazis and NATO encirclement of Russia resulted in a total alienation of Russia. Her alienation of China was so successful that the Chinese government removed their ambassador in the summer of 2019. Freeland’s work in organizing the failed coup in Venezuela and supporting the MI6-Soros White Helmets in Syria became so well known that she became known as the Canadian queen of regime change.

  Other pro-Chinese “bad plutocratic” companies which have been targeted for destruction under Freeland’s watch have included the beleaguered construction giant Aecon Inc. who’s board voted in favor of being sold to China in March 2018 in order to play a role in Belt and Road Projects (a decision vetoed by the Federal Government in May 2018), as well as Quebec-based SNC Lavalin which has had major deals with both Russia and China on nuclear power and major infrastructure projects and which now faces being shut down in Canada for having bribed politicians in Libya when it built Qadaffi’s Great Manmade River (destroyed by NATO in 2011).

  Former Liberal Minister of Infrastructure from Shawinigan Quebec, Francois-Philippe Champagne has taken over Freeland’s portfolio and with him it appears a new pro-Eurasian policy may be emerging in Canada much more conducive to the long term survival (and strategic relevance) of Canada. This shift has already been noted by China which has responded by sending a new Ambassador to Ottawa, while a new Canadian Ambassador with a long history of working towards positive Chinese relations in the private sector (Dominic Barton) has just begun working in Beijing. Barton was the first Ambassador to China since “old guard” politician John McCallum was fired in January 2019 for defending Huawei’s Meng Wanzhou to a group of Chinese journalists.

  In opposition to the cacophonic voice of Freeland, Champagne had spoken positively of China in 2017 saying:

  “In a world of uncertainty, of unpredictability, of questioning about the rules that have been established to govern our trading relationship, Canada, and I would say China, stand out as [a] beacon of stability, predictability, a rule-based system, a very inclusive society.”

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  Champagne is a long-standing protégé of former Prime Minister Jean Chretien and world travelled businessman who has worked in the European nuclear sector and has promoted industrial development with China for years. Jean Chretien, who campaigned for Champagne’s recent re-election, represents everything Freeland hates: A “practical” old school politician who recognizes that World War III and alienating Eurasian nations who are shaping the future is bad for business. In 2014, Chretien was given the “Friend of Russia” award and has played a major role in the private sector working with Quebec-based Power Corporation which runs the Canada-China Business Council (CCBC) and has brokered major contracts throughout China since ending his term as PM in 2003. Chretien is also the father in-law of current CCBC chair Paul Desmarais Jr. who is the heir to the PowerCorp dynasty. While these are not groups that in any way exemplify morality, they are practical industrialists who know depopulation and world war are bad for business and would prefer to adapt to a China-led BRI system over a “green technocratic dictatorship”.

  Since December 2018, Chretien has attacked Freeland’s decision to support Meng Wanzhou’s extradiction to the USA, and has volunteered to lead a delegation to China in order to smooth tensions.

  So while the “bad plutocrats” appear to have taken an important step forward though the debris of the recent near failure of the Liberal Party which narrowly kept a minority government after the October 21 Federal Elections, the ideologically driven technocrats led by Queen Freeland shouldn’t be discounted, as her new position as Deputy Prime Minister puts her in a position to possibly take control of Canada as 2nd in command of a highly fragmented nation which is now hearing renewed calls for separation in Alberta, and Quebec.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sun, 12/01/2019 – 21:30

  Tags

  Politics

  

• Elon Musk Admits To Doing "Zero Market Research Whatsoever" Before Unveiling Cybertruck
  Elon Musk Admits To Doing “Zero Market Research Whatsoever” Before Unveiling Cybertruck

  It was only about 10 days ago that Elon Musk revealed Tesla’s new Cybertruck to legions of adoring sycophants and – well, the rest of the world who laughed at him and ridiculed the truck’s design. Even Denny’s took shots at Musk.

  And why wouldn’t they? The unveiling of the truck was a full scale disaster, complete with two broken windows and a passenger side back wheel that looked like it was about to fall off from underneath the truck. So, naturally, Musk claims that the cult of Tesla has already pre-ordered 250,000 of them. We documented the full unveiling circus in a writeup here. 

  Now, we’re starting to get a glance into why the truck and its unveiling looked like such a poorly planned concept: because they were. 

  Musk said in early November, just several weeks before the unveiling, that the company does “zero market research whatsoever” when designing a new product, according to a new article from the Wall Street Journal. 

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  In other words, Musk wants to enter the best segment of the auto industry: the highly profitable, billion dollar pickup truck segment, and he has done no research as to how best to meet the needs of potential customers.

  Is it any wonder the company is losing close to $1 billion per year?

  And how does Musk defend the strategy of doing no research? The idea seems “seems especially reckless in the age of Big Data,” the WSJ says. Especially while companies like Google, Apple and Facebook have based their success by doing nothing but harvesting and analyzing data. In other words, they don’t make blind bets, like Musk is doing. 

  In a forthcoming book, “The Power of Experiments: Decision-Making in a Data-Driven World,” Harvard professors Michael Luca and Max Bazerman show how such experiments have helped organizations from eBay to the U.K. tax authority make better decisions. By testing different strategies on a limited pool of unwitting customers before implementing them, they say, companies can eliminate guesswork and intuition and build products and processes “that better account for the many quirks of human behavior.”

  But Musk isn’t interested in that; rather, he seems interested only in what Elon Musk wants.

  The Tesla CEO said at a November 5th event, about 16 days before the Cybertruck unveiling: “A lot of times people try to make products that they think others would love but they don’t love them themselves. Tesla’s approach is to start by imagining the platonic ideal of a car. I find that if you do that, people will want to buy it. If it’s compelling to you it will be compelling to others.”

  Musk called the truck an “an armored personnel carrier from the future” on November 5th before stating at the unveiling:  “Trucks have been the same for a very long time, like 100 years. We wanted to try something different.” 

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  One thing is for sure: if the truck’s specs as listed survive to production at the same price point that Musk pitched ($39,900), the styling of the truck may not be an issue with customers. However, based on Musk’s inability to deliver at the price ranges he has pitched in the past Model 3 , we find it highly unlikely the Cybertruck, as shown, will be sold at the $39,900 price point. 

  But it’s Musk’s method of “shooting first and asking questions later” that the WSJ takes exception with. “Put simply, today’s geniuses study problems. Only suckers make bets,” the piece concludes. 

  Perhaps Musk doesn’t understand that as a public company you can’t be all visionary (if you even want to call him that). Unicorns and rainbows will only hold the stock up for so long, until such time as investors demand the company turns a profit. Musk has been, and continues to skate on thin ice by wholly ignoring this reality and its an inevitability that could come at anytime. Burning billions of dollars is not a business plan – it only works until it doesn’t.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sun, 12/01/2019 – 21:00

• How Inflation, Prudence, And Fundamentals Are Setting Up Gold To Soar
  How Inflation, Prudence, And Fundamentals Are Setting Up Gold To Soar

  Authored by Dave Forest via InternationalMan.com,

  International Man: Governments around the world, including the United States, are printing trillions of currency units. This will continue to significantly devalue these paper currencies and create inflation.

  Doug Casey recently said:

  With all the money that’s been created by governments and central banks, the chances are excellent we’re going to have a gigantic bull market. Maybe the last one, since I expect the world is going back to using gold as money—at which point we’ll have a stable gold price.

  In the meantime, I think mining stocks could go absolutely insane. The prices will have no relation to fundamentals, because everybody will want to own them.

  How do you think the situation is going to play out for gold and precious metals?

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  Dave Forest: Inflation is a given. I see it every day in commodities, although many mainstream investors don’t recognize it. Yet.

  In the 2000s, investors were over the moon when gold broke above $1,000 per ounce and copper passed $1.50 per pound. During the previous commodities bear market, those levels were unthinkable.

  But now, $1,000 gold is peanuts. Hardcore bullion investors were distraught in 2016 when gold “plunged” close to $1,000. That’s seen as a depressed and unsustainable price.

  Same with copper. That sector’s been in the doldrums, because the price fell below $2.50 per pound. If you’d told a copper miner in 1999 they’d have $2.50 copper, they would have popped the champagne! Today, it’s seen as scraping the bottom of the barrel.

  The thing is, back in the “old” days, you could mine and process an ounce of gold for $100. Today, production costs are more like $600 per ounce. Closer to $1,000 per ounce if you add in sustaining and expansion capital.

  That’s the real reason metals, including gold, have to go higher. The gold price isn’t arbitrary. The price must exceed production costs—or mines will shut down and supply will run out.

  The massive inflation in production costs is driven by lots of things: rising fuel prices, increasing wages and benefits for workers, and higher steel prices. Barrick Gold, the world’s largest public gold miner, saw costs for one of its new mines, Pascua Lama, rise by billions of dollars within just a few months!

  Politicians can’t sleight-of-hand those costs away—they’re real. So, the only conclusion is gold—and all metals—need higher prices in order to keep supply coming.

  International Man: What other factors are affecting gold right now?

  Dave Forest: We think of gold as a “safe haven”: Break glass and use when things really fall apart.

  But many players in the financial sector are already using gold day-to-day, as a financial instrument.

  In China, for example, many exporters don’t have access to currency hedging. They’re exposed to fluctuations in the exchange rate between the dollar and yuan while they’re waiting for dollar-denominated payments to come in.

  If you can’t hedge currency rates through the banks, what do you do? Chinese firms found an alternative: Buy gold. The idea is, if the US dollar depreciates, the value of gold holdings will go up, because gold is globally sold in US currency.

  In effect, these firms hold gold as a short-term hedging instrument. They could actually do the same thing with sheets of copper cathode or barrels of oil, but gold is the easiest major commodity to purchase, hold, and eventually sell once currency has been converted.

  Of course, the root cause here is currency instability: people fearing a breakdown in the US dollar. So, it’s not far off the reasons doom-and-gloomers buy gold. Just that Chinese buyers are doing it in the short term, for purely commercial reasons.

  International Man: The mining business is extremely volatile and risky. There are thousands of mining companies out there, and most of them are junk. What is your approach to separating the winners from the losers?

  Dave Forest: First off, recognize that “junk,” in terms of mining stocks, comes in several forms.

  There are of course, outright scams. That ranges from full-on fraud (not that common) to huckster promoters who legitimately take people’s money but then use it to pay themselves huge salaries while doing little or no technical work (much more common).

  Looking at salaries is a good way to spot those latter cases. Public companies in Canada disclose their officers’ wages. It’s not uncommon to see CEOs of a company with $1 million in the bank making $400,000 per year. When 40% of your firm’s budget is going to pay one person, there’s not a chance the company is going to perform. Never mind that these people generally would be unemployable, even for $1 yearly, in any other industry.

  A much more subtle form of junk is the “hobby farm” company. You know how people, often older, will buy a farm for the fun of being outdoors? They’ll putter around doing a little work here and there, but the whole thing is mainly for enjoyment rather than serious commercial endeavor.

  A significant number of junior mining stocks are like this. Exploration companies, after all, are just a couple of guys with a pickup or maybe a helicopter walking around picking up rocks.

  Older geologists will often do this for the fun of it. It’s nice to have shareholders pay for your summer fishing trip up north. While there, these “execs” might walk into the bush and grab a few samples, but they’re not pushing to run a real business. Those companies go absolutely nowhere, very slowly.

  You have to really watch out for those, because the people will seem sincere and often credible. But their heart isn’t in it, so they never accomplish much.

  Once you weed out those, you’re left with a small group of more-interesting stocks. These are the companies that have good ideas about where new mineral discoveries might be made. They’re motivated and hungry; they usually have their own money invested in the hunt.

  They run the company like a business. That means they consider whether the cash they’re spending will add value to a project. It also means they know what value looks like in a mineral property!

  International Man: As a geologist, you’re on the ground in obscure places like Colombia, Russia, Mongolia, etc., searching for new deposits and breakthroughs. What are some of the most interesting places on your radar right now and why?

  Dave Forest: North America, minus Mexico. As you say, I’ve spent a lot of my career in obscure places. Ten years ago, you would go abroad, because it was tough to break into established spots like Ontario or Nevada.

  But the recent downturn in exploration’s changed all that. I spend a lot of my time in Nevada now, and it’s astounding how little exploration work is going on, despite the state being ranked number one in the world for mining.

  Today, you can get acreage and try new ideas. I’ve even seen companies stake out whole districts that were abandoned during the downturn.

  Building a mine anywhere is tough these days. Environmental activism (or commercial interests masquerading as such) and “not in my backyard” (NIMBY) concerns are rising everywhere. Places like Nevada or northern Saskatchewan have the advantages of having established mining sectors, relatively stable governments, and—most importantly—very few people. No backyards, no NIMBY.

  That said, I still love travel. And I do keep an eye out for emerging opportunities abroad—they just have to be big opportunities to make up for the increased political risk.

  One spot I checked out recently was Uzbekistan. The country has the world’s largest gold mine, called Muruntau, which has something like 200 million ounces.

  Uzbekistan’s dictator died in 2016, and the new prime minister seems very sincere in accelerating free-market reforms. That includes opening the mining sector to foreign exploration and development.

  I visited last summer and couldn’t believe what’s happening. Government officials couldn’t meet until 10 PM, because they were too busy working at the office to get the prime minister’s orders done. There have been reported cases of government staff dying from overwork! These people are serious. It’s one to watch.

  International Man: You recently came across a new technology that could change the way mining companies find gold deposits. What exactly is this and what is the potential?

  Dave Forest: A few years ago, I was introduced to a PhD mathematician. He’d been an executive consultant for 25 years to one of the world’s largest mining companies. He had a corner office and a green light for three-hour, two-bottles-of-wine lunches whenever he wanted.

  Why?

  Because he could do something I’ve never seen before (and apparently this mega-mining firm never had either).

  He could use satellite data to find gold, copper, or zinc.

  Now, there are lots of geologists who try to use satellite data to pinpoint ore deposits. This “remote sensing” has been in use since the 1980s.

  I’ve always been a skeptic. Most times, satellite geologists just torture the data until it fits their preconception of the target. I never saw a convincing case where satellite imaging revealed a new discovery.

  But when I met this PhD, I was intrigued. It wasn’t just his impeccable credentials in the industry—his approach is elegantly simple in a mathematical sense. He didn’t torture the data with interpretations. He just ran his algorithm and let the results speak for themselves.

  I wanted to find out more. So, I gave him a test. It was a gold project in dense jungle in eastern Myanmar. I knew the gold mines are there, only because I’d been on the ground, under the tree canopy. But from the satellite view, you couldn’t see anything. There was no way to cheat.

  He used his techniques and sent me a “heat map” that pinpointed the mine locations almost exactly. I was floored.

  Since then, we’ve used this “digital treasure map” in Mongolia, Colombia, Nevada, and eastern Canada. The results, when field checked, have been excellent.

  We started thinking about how this could benefit investors. What if you knew about a big mineral find on a company’s property before the company did? That’s what we can do with this satellite system. We can scan anyone’s property, almost anywhere on Earth.

  Using the system, we recommended three stocks to International Speculator readers. One stock was bought out by a larger gold company within months of our recommendation, for a 219% profit. Another stock has risen more than 200% since our recommendation, on excellent gold drill results.

  The last stock is still moving toward drilling. I think we knew they had a potentially major discovery before they did!

  This also shows why now’s the perfect time to invest in mineral exploration. Why was this PhD genius available and not squirreled away in the bowels of a major mining firm? Only because the company he was working for laid off their entire exploration department during the most recent industry downturn. Crisis = opportunity.

  *  *  *

  Dave has just deployed this satellite technology to pinpoint gold mining deposits and identify a speculative opportunity with enormous upside. That’s exactly why, he released this new video where he shares all the details for how you could get in on the ground floor. Click here to watch it now.

  *  *  *

  Dave Forest is a geologist who has worked professionally in mining and petroleum over a 20-year career. He has also bridged his technical expertise into the finance and investment sector, originally joining Doug Casey in 2004 when he founded an advisory dedicated to finding high-potential investment opportunities in oil, natural gas, uranium and renewables globally.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sun, 12/01/2019 – 20:30

• India In "Very Deep Crisis," Witnessing "Death Of Demand," Warns Former Indian FM
  India In “Very Deep Crisis,” Witnessing “Death Of Demand,” Warns Former Indian FM

  Former Indian Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha said India’s economy is in a “very deep crisis,” witnessing “death of demand,” and the government is “befooling people” with its economic distortions of how growth is around the corner, reported India Today. 

  “No matter what the powers that be say, the fact is that we are in a very deep crisis,” warned Sinha. 

  India’s GDP has been rapidly slowing since peaking in 2016. Official data shows Q3 growth slumped to 4.5%, the lowest since 1Q13. 

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  Sinha was speaking to an audience at the Times Litfest 2019 conference, located at Habitat World Center in Delhi, India, on Sunday. 

  #Yashwant Sinha #TimesLitFestDelhi2019 pic.twitter.com/aKJjPPH1Mc

  — Dr. Gaurav Sood, PhD (@imgauravsood) December 1, 2019

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  He warned that President Narendra Modi’s government is attempting to deceive everyone about how growth is coming in the next quarter or the quarter after but cautioned there’s only a crisis ahead. 

  “They (the government) are trying to fool the people by saying the next quarter will be better…This type of crisis takes a long time like three to four or even five years (to subside). It cannot be resolved at the drop of a hat or by wielding a magic stick,” he said.

  He said the economy is experiencing what is called the “death of demand,” and the epicenter of it is the agriculture and rural sector.

  “There is no demand in the economy, and that is the starting point of the crisis. They (government of the day) are least bothered about what is happening to our farmers, people living in rural areas, now that is where the death of demand started. The demand first dried up in agriculture and rural sector, then it dried up in the informal or unorganized sector, and ultimately it traveled to the corporate sector,” he said.

  Sinha said he’s been warning the government of the crisis that is coming down the pipe. 

  “In fact, this was something I had done after already warning them (people in the government) personally through letters, personal meetings… it is only when the party’s doors were closed on me that I had to start speaking publicly,” he added.

  Though there’s no recession in India at the moment, the warning signs are showing up. Private consumption has plunged, both public and private investments have fallen, exports have dropped in the past quarter, the economy has been decelerating for several years, and there’s zero evidence that the economy has bottomed out. 

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sun, 12/01/2019 – 20:00

  Tags

  Business Finance

  Politics

  

• Acceptable Discrimination: Political Affiliation Bias
  Acceptable Discrimination: Political Affiliation Bias

  Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

  The bias against those who are not politically affiliated similarily is the last acceptable form of discrimination. It’s now okay and accepted by the masses, to treat other human beings as less than if they disagree with you on politics.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  One new study is showing that most are embracing this type of discrimination with extreme fervor. This study shows discriminatory behavior thrives in the one area where it remains socially acceptable to judge people based on shared attributes: political affiliation. Politics remains one of the few personal characteristics not protected by equal opportunity hiring laws, and if this study is any indication, lawmakers will want to get on top of that quickly.

  Belief in certain political values is akin to belief in a religion. It’s all based on opinion and discrimination is still discrimination, even if you label it “politics.” We all know the media has been trying to brainwash us with government-approved opinions for years now, and those who don’t accept their brainwashing willingly are being discriminated against.

  Shared political ideology outweighs seemingly more important factors like professional qualifications in hiring decisions, researchers from Clemson University and the University of Kansas confirmed in a study published this month in the Journal of Applied Psychology. Unchecked, this kind of discrimination is liable to produce powerful echo chambers, in which groupthink eventually becomes a prerequisite for employment.

  Study participants readily picked a job candidate with whom they shared a political affiliation over a more qualified candidate without that affiliation when presented with Facebook profiles containing clear indicators of the prospective hire’s political alignment. These might include statements about leading a campus Democrat or Republican group, or party symbols like the Democratic donkey or GOP elephant. The closer the participant, acting as a recruiter, identified with a party, the higher ratings they gave to candidates who touted their membership in that party – qualifications were nigh on irrelevant.-RT

  There is real irony in the mainstream media’s role in pushing for this discrimination too.  The media environment has actively encouraged this polarization. It gets clicks as it drives destructive wedges into society while at the same time condemning any other form of attribute-based preference as “unthinkable bigotry.” In other words, while discriminating against different opinions, the media calls those opinions “bigotry” and says that those are the discriminating opinions.

  Welcome to the U.S.S.A. Where groupthink is our future.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sun, 12/01/2019 – 19:30

  Tags

  Politics

  Labor

  

• This Is The Chart Albert Edwards Is Watching To Decide When The US Becomes "Japanified"
  This Is The Chart Albert Edwards Is Watching To Decide When The US Becomes “Japanified”

  Last week, in order to help the Fed find some of that oh so “mysterious” inflation it has been so powerless in tracking down for the past decade, we showed a chart of healthcare inflation which is now soaring at a record 20% (for a complete discussion of soaring US healthcare costs, see here).

  healthcare inflation pic.twitter.com/pioYdZ9eZH

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 26, 2019

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  At least one person was not impressed, however.

  Commenting on this particular surge in health insurance premiums, SocGen’s restless permabear said that such inflation “proves temporary.” Which, coming from Albert, is to be expected: while some say the world will end in fire, to Edwards it will be ice as far as the eye can see – after all, it was Edwards who first coined the term “ice age” some two decades ago to explain the deflationary singularity that will consume everything, and as such it is understandably why to him any surge in inflation is a one-time event.

  There is another reason why Edwards dismisses any incipient signs of inflation in the US: his latest piece is titled “Japanification of the US beckons”, in which he writes that despite the Fed’s recent announcement of a halt to further rate cuts, “GDP growth looks fragile and there is good evidence to suggest that core CPI inflation is set to collapse towards zero. In fact, a resumption of Fed easing on the back of recessionary data and sliding inflation is likely to accelerate the convergence of US yields towards negative eurozone and Japanese yields.”

  Hence, the Japanification of the US, and as he further notes, if the US economy slides into recession, it is clear that “inflation will likely fall ever closer toward Japanese-style deflation. But a rapid decline in key inflation measures, like core CPI, may be beginning to unfold already, irrespective of whether a recession is about to start or not.”

  To make his point, Edwards points out the October CPI data which “shocked” him, but not for the surprisingly high 0.4% headline rise M/M, but because of a specific data set that he will now be watching very closely to determine if US inflation is indeed converging with that of Japan: shelter CPI.

  it was this key component of the CPI basket that last month collapsed to almost zero. And since shelter has a very heavy 33% weighting in the overall CPI and an overwhelmingly dominant 42% weighting in the closely watched core CPI (ie ex food and energy), it’s only a matter of time before the decline in shelter hits the broader inflation basket.

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  There is another reason why Shelter is such a key inflationary metric: as the next chart shows, inflation for core CPI has exceeded the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the core PCE deflator, since 2014, largely because the dominant shelter component has been running around 3½%, pulling up core CPI sharply. Without shelter, core, core CPI has been running just above 1% (blue line in chart below)

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  The SocGen strategist then notes that if, as he believes, the recent burst of rapid shelter inflation is ending, this will reveal core, core CPI inflation only just above 1%, especially if and when the abovementioned burst in healthcare inflation fades.

  Finally, to determine in which direction shelter inflation is headed in the future, Edwards looks at the price of new homes, which suggests that shelter and rent inflation may now be falling away rapidly: “This will come as a surprise to investors, as even without a recession, core CPI could quickly head towards zero. The markets will then embrace the Japanification theme in the US, just as they have done in Europe.”

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  Putting it all together, Edwards concludes that “I had been waiting for a while for the shoe to drop and now it has started to fall towards the floor,  revealing that core CPI inflation in the US is closer to zero than many assumed. And the obvious question arises that if this is all the consumer price inflation that the US economy can produce at the end of the longest cycle in history, what will happen when it falls into recession?”

  His rhetorical answer: “The Japanification of the US awaits”, but just in case he is wrong – something even Edwards admits to being more often than not – keep an eye on that shelter inflation chart…

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sun, 12/01/2019 – 19:00

  Tags

  Business Finance

  

• Hitchens: "If Bodies Like OPCW Cannot Be Trusted… World War 3 Could Be Started By A Falsehood"
  Hitchens: “If Bodies Like OPCW Cannot Be Trusted… World War 3 Could Be Started By A Falsehood”

  Authored by Peter Hitchens via The Mail On Sunday blog,

  I stood outside the safe house, in a road I cannot name, in a major European city I cannot identify, not sure what I might find inside. I had no way of being sure. 

  I had travelled a long distance by train to an address I had been given over an encrypted email.

  I was nervous that the meeting might be some sort of trap. Leaks from inside arms verification organisations are very sensitive matters. Powerful people mind about them. 

  I wasn’t sure whether to be afraid of being followed, or to be worried about who might be waiting behind the anonymous door on a dark afternoon, far from home. I took all the amateurish precautions that I could think of.

  As it happened, it was not a trap. Now, on carefully selected neutral ground, I was to meet a person who would confirm suspicions that had been growing in my mind over several years – that there is something rotten in the way that chemical weapons inspections are being conducted and reported. And that the world could be hurried into war on the basis of such inspections.

  Inside the safe house, I was greeted by a serious, patient expert, a non-political scientist whose priority had until now always been to do the hard, gritty work of verification – travelling to the scenes of alleged horrors, sifting and searching for hard evidence of what had really happened. But this entirely honourable occupation had slowly turned sour. 

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  The whiff of political interference had begun as a faint unpleasant smell in the air and grown until it was an intolerable stench. Formerly easy-going superiors had turned into tricky bureaucrats.

  The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) had become so important that it could no longer be allowed to do its job properly. 

  Too many of the big powers that sponsor and finance it were breathing down its neck, wanting certain results, whether the facts justified them or not.

  My source calmly showed me various pieces of evidence that they were who they said they were, and knew what they claimed to know, making it clear that they worked for the OPCW and knew its inner workings. They then revealed a document to me.

  This was the email of protest, sent to senior OPCW officials, saying that a report on the alleged Syrian poison gas attack in Douma, in April 2018, had been savagely censored so as to alter its meaning. 

  In decades of journalism I have received quite a few leaks: leaks over luxurious, expensive lunches with Cabinet Ministers, anonymous leaks that just turned up in envelopes, leaks from union officials and employers, diplomats and academics.

  But I’ve never seen one like this. It scared me. If it was true, then something hugely dishonest and dangerous was going on, in a place where absolute integrity was vital. 

  If bodies such as the OPCW cannot be trusted, then World War Three could one day be started by a falsehood.

  Last week I reported on the first episode in this story. Within days the OPCW had confirmed that the email I leaked was authentic.

  Nobody followed me home or threatened me. A few silly people on social media told blatant lies about me, insinuating that I was somehow a Russian patsy or a defender of the disgusting Syrian regime that I have been attacking in print for nearly 20 years. That was what I had expected.

  But there is much more to come. And, as it grows harder for everyone to ignore this enormous, dangerous story, I suspect I shall be looking over my shoulder rather more than usual.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sun, 12/01/2019 – 18:30

• Gloves Come Off: China "Insists" Existing Tariffs Must Be Scrapped For "Phase 1" Trade Deal
  Gloves Come Off: China “Insists” Existing Tariffs Must Be Scrapped For “Phase 1” Trade Deal

  Until now, China had largely kept the key hurdles in the ongoing US-China trade talks close to the vest, fearful that “breaking the embargo” so to speak on what have been confidential talks so far, could anger the US side. Now in a surprise diplomatic reversal, one which has the intent of signaling to the world that China will no longer play by Washington’s unspoken if assumed rules, overnight China’s nationalistic Global Times tabloid reported that Beijing now “insists” that existing tariffs must be removed as part of a “Phase 1” trade deal, well beyond the US “ask” of merely scrapping those tariffs which are set to kick in on December 15.

  “Sources with direct knowledge of the trade talks told the Global Times on Saturday that the U.S. must remove existing tariffs, not planned tariffs, as part of the deal,” said the report.

  Global Times, which is published by the official People’s Daily newspaper of China’s ruling Communist Party, also cited another unidentified source close to the talks as saying U.S. officials had been resisting such a demand because the tariffs were their only weapon in the trade war and giving up that weapon meant “surrender.”

  Which is precisely what we said last night, when we noted that by going public with its demands, it would make Trump look even weaker, as the US president can no longer spin the outcome of negotiations as one where he proposed the removal of existing tariffs, but rather such an act would be seen as caving to China.

  Here we go: China breaks the negotiation embargo and goes public with its deal demands, insisting rollback of existing tariffs. Trump now can’t concede or will be seen as caving to China https://t.co/h4ZnFa8Q0Q

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 1, 2019

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Of course, by eliminating existing tariffs, the US would lose any leverage it currently has as it is only the current tariffs squeezing Chinese exporters that make the current situation unpalatable for Beijing, and any roll back to a status quo would mean that China can now indefinitely delay any further concessions toward a bigger trade deal.

  Needless to say, should Trump agree, he would be squeezed by both parties as having capitulated to Beijing after a year and a half, with absolutely nothing to show for it besides the S&P at all time highs, of course, which however is not his but rather the Fed’s doing.

  On Tuesday, Trump said Washington was in the “final throes” of a deal aimed at defusing a 16-month trade war with China, a few days after Chinese President Xi Jinping had expressed his desire for a trade agreement. Top trade negotiators for both countries also spoke again and agreed to continue working on the remaining issues.

  Trade experts and people close to the White House told Reuters last month, however, that signing a phase one agreement may not take place until the new year as China pressed for more extensive rollbacks of tariffs, with US trade hawks led by Peter Navarro, refusing to concede realizing well that such an act would be a surrender by the US.

  Last Tuesday, Senate Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley told reporters that Beijing invited U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin for in-person talks in Beijing. Grassley said Lighthizer and Mnuchin were willing to go if they saw “a real chance of getting a final agreement.

  A source familiar with the trade talks also told Reuters that U.S. officials could travel to China after Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday in the United States.

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  It is unclear if Trump will comply with China’s demands and roll back all existing tariffs just to avoid any market turbulence in the critical, for his re-election, year 2020.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sun, 12/01/2019 – 18:06

  Tags

  Politics

  Business Finance

  

• Between Black Friday and Cyber Monday, Pope Francis Warns "Consumerism Is A Virus That Corrodes Faith" 
  Between Black Friday and Cyber Monday, Pope Francis Warns “Consumerism Is A Virus That Corrodes Faith” 

  During Sunday Mass, Pope Francis bashed Black Friday and Cyber Monday and urged people to resist consumerism leading up to the Christmas holiday season. The Pope called consumerism a virus and said it hurts the poor, Reuters reported.

  This isn’t the first time Pope Francis spoke negatively of the biggest shopping holidays of the year. Last year he delivered a message on the dangers of consumerism.

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  In 2015, Pope Francis warned the world’s 1.2 billion Roman Catholics not to be “intoxicated by consumerism.” 

  He has also warned about the “throwaway culture” and the “dictatorship of an impersonal economy.” 

  This holiday season, he said: “When you live for things, things are never enough, greed grows, other people become obstacles in a race,” he said at a Sunday Mass, criticizing the West where “consumerism reigns supreme.” 

  The Pope added, “consumerism is a virus that corrodes faith” because it clouds the minds of many who forget “the brother who knocks at your door.”

  He urged people this Sunday to “resist the blinding lights of consumerism, which will shine everywhere this month,” leading up to Christmas.

  The Pope has pointed out before, the abusive advertising and consumer brainwashing techniques by mega-corporations have become very sophisticated. Advanced marketing techniques have sucked in broke consumers, buying products they can’t afford, nor do they need with credit card rates at 25-year highs. 

   

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sun, 12/01/2019 – 18:00

  Tags

  Religion Belief

  

• Does Mike Bloomberg's Presidential Run Raise Questions About Democracy & A Free Press?
  Does Mike Bloomberg’s Presidential Run Raise Questions About Democracy & A Free Press?

  Authored by Alan Macleod via MintPressNews.com,

  After months of speculation, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg formally announced a high-profile, big-money campaign to become the Democratic Presidential nominee on November 24.

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  The 77-year-old former Republican has decided that he is the perfect candidate to prevent the president from achieving a second term. Bloomberg has a long history of support for conservative positions, including endorsing George W. Bush’s War on Terror and defending Israel’s 2014 assault on Gaza.

  In 2014, Michael Bloomberg went so violently right wing, that the White House’s Valerie Jarrett had to stop him and say that Israel’s bombing of 500 sleeping Palestinian children was inexcusable. He defended it.

  More by @mehdirhasan at @theintercept here: https://t.co/qrfFPnKLPH pic.twitter.com/P5hLoiBQ6C

  — rafael (@rafaelshimunov) November 26, 2019

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The primary reason why the self-described conservative has the ability to credibly enter the race at such a late date is his financial clout. Bloomberg is the world’s ninth richest individual, enjoying a net worth of nearly $55 billion and he owns a huge eponymous media network, one of the largest in the world.

  His recent entry into the ring has proven controversial with many who see the plutocrat’s power and influence as an unfair advantage. Sawyer Hackett, the National Press Secretary for his Democratic nomination opponent Julian Castro noted that if someone had made half a million dollars per day since the United States’ founding in 1776, they would still be far poorer than Bloomberg himself is. Hackett concluded, “that kind of wealth shouldn’t be allowed to leverage success in our primaries.”

  Writer and former New York Times columnist Anand Giridharadas pointed out that Bloomberg’s pitch to the American people, that his wealth makes him incorruptible and therefore more trustworthy, was illogical, given that the Democratic Party is currently attempting to impeach a billionaire president on corruption charges, arguing that “being very rich gives you more interests, not less.”

  It is for this reason that Elizabeth Warren has accused him of trying to essentially “buy the nomination.”

  “Someone who can’t be bought.”@MikeBloomberg is running on the idea of the ultra-rich being especially incorruptible — at the moment we are impeaching a rich president, who said he’d be incorruptible, for corruption. Turns out being very rich gives you more interests, not less. https://t.co/mKPHYhKLSi

  — Anand Giridharadas (@AnandWrites) November 26, 2019

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Yet Bloomberg’s run for President highlights another danger: that of freedom of the press. As the New Republic warned, the 2,700 journalists working directly under him in his extensive media network are in an impossible position. Can they truly report fairly and in an unbiased manner on the presidential race when their owner has such an obvious and important stake in its proceedings? If history is any judge, the answer to that will be “no.” Silvio Berlusconi, for instance, used his vast media empire to propel him and keep him in power as the Prime Minister of Italy for nine years.

  Bloomberg Editor in Chief John Micklethwait announced a series of top-down measures attempting to head off this problem, instructing the company to simply not cover their boss or any of the other candidates in the Democratic primaries. How a major news outlet is going to ignore such an important ongoing process was not explained.

  Yet the company appears to already be breaking this promise. The organization ran three negative stories on Elizabeth Warren in a 24-hour period earlier this week. Was this as a response to her criticism of his actions or an attempt to undermine one of the most popular rival candidates’ chances? That is a question that arises uniquely in a situation where a politician owns the means of communication.

  Bloomberg the billionaire has muddied the waters between his political interests and his media empire even further by hiring David Shipley and Tim O’Brien, Executive Editors from his news outlet, to key positions in his presidential campaign.

  Yet another important danger to media freedom is the fact that Bloomberg is promising to lavish enormous amounts of money to corporate media outlets in the form of political advertising. Even before he had officially announced his candidacy, he already spent $33 million in television advertising alone, beaming his message nationally and in 98 local markets. With the prospect of a bonanza of a seemingly bottomless pile of advertising money, will corporate media outlets, under intense financial pressure, be influenced in their coverage of the billionaire’s activities? There is always a quid pro quo when one accepts funding from any powerful person or organization.

  The billionaire already has a list of ringing media endorsements from some of America’s most influential media figures. The New York Times’ Thomas Friedman claimed as President he would “forcefully put a Democratic pro-growth, pro-innovation, pro-business agenda on the table” in a column entitled “Why I like Mike.” His colleague Bret Stephens cheered him on. His article “Run, Mike Run!” argued that the wonderful thing in choosing a conservative Republican as Democratic candidate was that all the usual Republican talking points about the Democrats being too liberal would not work on Bloomberg. Meanwhile, one New York Post commentator said he was “delighted” that the plutocrat was “saving the party” from out-of-touch socialists like Warren.

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  The uber-conservative Bret Stephens came out to bat for Bloomberg in the New York Times

  Can we be sure that these are genuine expressions of support, or merely a calculated quid pro quo? This is again a question that only arises in a corporate, advertiser-dominated media ecosystem. Corporate media have every reason to prop up the multi-billionaire’s campaign, keeping him in the race as long as possible, knowing that the money will continue to flow, as long as they do not portray him poorly. (Rest assured that MintPress News has not been approached to carry water for his campaign).

  The New Yorker’s presidential bid highlights the contradictions between both extreme wealth and a for-profit, corporate advertiser-driven media landscape and democracy and freedom of expression. Any expansion of democracy and solution to these dilemmas requires seriously questioning whether either of the first two are legitimate. As Bernie Sanders said, “Billionaires shouldn’t exist.”

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sun, 12/01/2019 – 17:30

  Tags

  Politics

  

• Why The US Job Market Is About To Crack In 8 Charts
  Why The US Job Market Is About To Crack In 8 Charts

  With the US economy once again rolling over, as various Fed nowcasts see a sharp slump in Q4 GDP and the Citi economic surprise index slumping from a nearly two year high hit at the start of September…

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  … while real GDP growth is tracking the ISM lower month after month…

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  … the one part of the US economy that has proven remarkably resilient to the US-China trade war, now in its 553rd day, has been the US jobs market; so resilient in fact, it was an embarrassment to the Fed to have to explain why it is cutting rates with US unemployment at 50 year lows (we will have more to say on the quality vs quantity of US jobs in a subsequent post).

  So as we await this Friday’s jobs report where consensus expects another solid 188K job gains for the month of November, it appears that the US labor market is finally starting to crack. Below we present some recent empirical evidence that confirms the growing downside risks to US employment, starting with the recent plunge in percentage of firms who are planning to increase their employment according to NFIB. As this is a leading indicator to nonfarm payrolls, it suggests that the US may be facing a -100K print in the near future – if confirmed, it would be the worst number since the financial crisis.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  It’s not just the NFIB: the drop in the ISM employment similarly has held a strong correlation to payrolls. Unless this series stages a powerful rebound in the coming months, it is only a matter of time before the US job market dives.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  There has been recent notable weakness in the BLS’ other key labor market metric, the JOLTS job openings, long a favorite of Janet Yellen. Here, too, we find an ominous sign as the 3 month moving average in job openings has posted the most negative print since the financial crisis. This, too, leads broader payrolls data:

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  But it is probably the composite PMI employment index, which recently suffered its biggest drop since the financial crisis, that offers the most ominous picture yet:

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  For those asking what may catalyze this coming swoon in the jobs market, blame US companies’ eagerness to repurchase their stock (boosting management comp and stock prices) instead of investing in growth: as the next chart shows, rising capex tends to lead hiring, and by extension, a drop in capex would lead to job cuts.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  But the biggest red flag comes from the unprecedented divergence between CEO/corporate confidence and consumer confidence. While the latter is no doubt a function of the record highs in the stock market and the historical near record unemployment prints, when it comes to the future, it is what CEOs think that matters, and according to the chart below, they are only seeing red.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sun, 12/01/2019 – 17:00

  Tags

  Business Finance

  Labor

  

• Is Lebanon's Central Bank A Ponzi Scheme?
  Is Lebanon’s Central Bank A Ponzi Scheme?

  Via The Voltaire Network,

  The situation in Lebanon is deteriorating.

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  Traffic lanes have all been reopened, but a rift has emerged between those who favour the free flow of traffic and the road blockers.

  • The Free Patriotic Movement of President Michel Aoun, the Shiite Amal Movement of parliament speaker Nabih Berri and the Hezbollah condemn road closures;

  • while the Future Movement led by Saad Hariri, a Sunni, the Lebanese Forces of the Maronite Samir Geagea and the Progressive Socialist Party of Walid Jumblatt, leader of Lebanon’s Druze, have attempted to reintroduce the roadblocks.

  In the current political landscape, pursuing a simultaneous fight against corruption does not seem possible. Gebran Bassil (Free Patriotic Movement) announced that all the leading members of his party would make public their bank accounts. He also tabled a bill aimed at verifying the assets of civil servants. However, several hurdles would render such measures unworkable (the waiver of bank secrecy being prohibited by law in these circumstances; nothing has been said about the bank accounts belonging to the family members of political leaders; etc.).

  Actually, corruption in Lebanon is not a violation of the law; it is the law itself that generates it. For example, there are import taxes, which nobody pays since the law grants an exemption to the 17 recognized religious communities. It is therefore sufficient to have the import declared by a person from one of these communities to avoid paying the tax. Thus, the port of Beirut loses out on US$ 3 billion every year.

  The liquidity crisis, which sparked the 17 October protest movement, has worsened. Banks only allow cash withdrawals in Lebanese pounds up to a maximum amount equivalent to US$ 500 per week. All the rating agencies (Fitch, Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s) have downgraded Lebanon’s credit rating. Lebanon’s Central Bank Governor, Riad Salamé, maintains that the country holds US$ 38 billion in foreign currency reserves, but according to Moody’s they do not exceed 5 to 10 billion. On 28 November, Lebanon paid off a Eurobond of US$ 1.5 billion but may be unable to cover the next payment. The possibility of a bail-in targeting all Lebanese bank accounts is increasingly being brought up.

  The personal fortune of the Prime Minister, Saad Hariri, has come under scrutiny. As was previously reported by the Saudi press, Mr. Hariri had to reimburse astronomical sums to the Saudi state. No one seems to know what has become of that unfathomable amount of debt. A lawsuit was filed against Hariri’s personal bank to constrain it to return one billion dollars to one of its clients.

  The Lebanese think tank “Triangle” regards the entire Lebanese financial system as a scam devised by the Central Bank Governor, Riad Salamé, to emulate the Ponzi scheme investment fraud. According to Sami Halabi and Jacob Boswall, the attractiveness of Lebanese banks stems from the high interest rate they offer on dollar deposits. But this rate can only be honoured provided there is a continuous flow of new deposits (see the full note below for details). A close confidant of deceased president Rafic Hariri, Riad Salamé has been at the helm of Lebanon’s Central Bank since 1993, and is universally celebrated as one of the best central bank directors. His system only works because it benefits the country’s historic warlords.

  Such a system has never been observed in any other country since the Second World War, except in Albania in the 1990s. However, the scam in Albania consisted of a misappropriation of funds that benefited private companies, while in Lebanon it was designed to favour political leaders, to the detriment of taxpayers.

  *  *  *

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sun, 12/01/2019 – 16:30

  Tags

  Politics

  Business Finance

  

• Adam Schiff In Crosshairs As Republicans Seek Impeachment Witnesses
  Adam Schiff In Crosshairs As Republicans Seek Impeachment Witnesses

  As the impeachment inquiry moves from the House Intelligence Committee chaired by Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) to the House Judiciary Committee chaired by Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-NY), top House Judiciary Republican Rep. Doug Collins (GA) says Schiff is the most important witness the GOP wants to interview – after the whistleblower who sparked the entire affair approached Schiff’s committee before filing an official complaint.

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  “My first and foremost witness is Adam Schiff,” Collins told “Fox News Sunday,” adding that Schiff had “compared himself in the past to a special counsel,” while noting that former special prosecutor Kenn Starr testified during the GOP-controlled House’s impeachment of President Clinton, according to The Hill.

  The top Republican on the House Judiciary committee Rep Doug Collins joined FOX News Sunday. Collins reacts to a letter from Jerry Nadler asking whether or not Republicans want to subpoena witnesses to testify on behalf of the president. #FNS #FoxNews #Impeachment pic.twitter.com/TajnwAsM6X

  — FoxNewsSunday (@FoxNewsSunday) December 1, 2019

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “[Schiff] has put himself into that position,” added Collins. “If he chooses not to [testify], then I really have to question his veracity in what he’s putting in his report.”

  “Why are they hiding the stuff from us? If they think they have such a case, give us all the materials and don’t let Jerry Nadler write a crazy letter that says on the 6th, let us know who your witnesses are. We don’t even have the information from the Intel Committee yet. This is why this is a problematic exercise and simply a made-for-TV event coming on Wednesday.“

  According to Politico, Schiff will begin circulating a report on Monday within the House Intelligence Committee which will contain the conclusions of his panel’s investigation of President Trump’s request that Ukraine investigate Joe Biden and his son Hunter.

   

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sun, 12/01/2019 – 16:00

  Tags

  Politics

  

• World's First Human Composting Facility Is Coming To Seattle In 2021
  World’s First Human Composting Facility Is Coming To Seattle In 2021

  Authored by Emma Fiala via TheMindUnleashed.com,

  In a move hailed as a positive step by environmentalists, Washington became the first U.S. state to legalize the composting of human bodies in May of this year.

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  And now, the Evergreen State will become home to the world’s first human composting facility in 2021 thanks to Katrina Spade, founder and CEO of Recompose, after the legislation she helped enact goes into effect in May 2020.

  According to its website, Spade founded the revolutionary company with the goal of offering “natural organic reduction to the public,” a system that converts human remains into soil as an alternative to cremation or burial.

  Recompose’s website explains the benefits of natural organic reduction:

  “By converting human remains into soil, we minimize waste, avoid polluting groundwater with embalming fluid, and prevent the emissions of CO2 from cremation and from the manufacturing of caskets, headstones, and grave liners.

  By allowing organic processes to transform our bodies and those of our loved ones into a useful soil amendment, we help to strengthen our relationship to the natural cycles while enriching the earth.”

  In November, around 75 people attended what was described by the Seattle Times as “a housewarming party for a funeral home where bodies would not be burned or buried, but laid in individual vessels to become clean, usable compost.”

  Spade told the crowd, made up of investors, doctors, architects, funeral directors, legislators, and lawyers:

  “You are all members of the death-care revolution.”

  When all is said and done, the process will yield about a cubic yard of soil per person. The soil can be taken home by friends or family and used to grow a tree or a garden. Remaining soil will be used on 640 acres of conservation land in southern Washington that will one day become an ecologically sustainable village.

  In contrast, those who have opted to be cremated as a means to save money or take up less space geographically, have inadvertently left a burden on their family members. Spade explained:

  “These days, some families regard even ashes from cremation as a burden, not a joy. As in, ‘we’ve had these ashes in the garage for six years.’ And we’re creating a cubic yard of soil.”

  While Recompose is not yet up and running, the company is aiming for a $5,500 price tag for its natural organic reduction services while a green burial in the state of Washington averages around $6,000, cremation can range anywhere from $1,000-$7,000, and a conventional burial in a cemetery can set you back at least $8,000.

  The idea may seem outlandish or uncomfortable to some, but Recompose is more than just a pipe dream. As an architecture student, Spade first became interested in the funeral industry back in 2012. She quickly delved into the idea of “environmentally sustainable, urban-focused method of disposition of the dead,” after seeing a lack of environmental ethic in both the cremation and burial industries.

  In 2014 Spade’s idea took a turn toward reality when she received the Echoing Green Climate Fellowship. With the funding that followed she founded the non-profit Urban Death Project (UDP) and began working with soil science researchers, law professionals, and those in the funeral industry to lay the groundwork for a revolutionary system of death care the world had never seen.

  Over the next few years Spade continued to work on UDP before securing over $90,000 via a Kickstarter campaign. Her idea also reached wide audiences through worldwide media coverage.

  Then in 2017 Space founded Recompose, a public benefit corporation, to bring her idea to reality—a reality now taking shape in a warehouse in SoDo, where the company is ready to live out their mission to “offer a new form of death care that honors both our loved ones and the planet earth.”

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sun, 12/01/2019 – 15:30

  Tags

  Environment

  

• Two Storms One Weekend: 50 Million Under Winter Alerts As Travelers Return From Thanksgiving 
  Two Storms One Weekend: 50 Million Under Winter Alerts As Travelers Return From Thanksgiving 

  Two significant weather disturbances are causing headaches for holiday travelers, including one moving inland on the West Coast and another traversing from Upper Midwest to the Northeast, reported NPR News. More than 50 million people across the country are under winter weather alerts as the holiday shopping weekend comes to an end. 

  The first storm is expected to impact Seattle to Los Angeles, dumping feet of snow across higher elevations, and heavy rain and gusty wind to coasts and valley regions. 

  There are already flight delays for Seattle, San Francisco, and Los Angeles airports on Sunday morning. 

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  The National Weather Service (NWS) warns “travel is highly discouraged” between Saturday morning and Monday evening across portions of Northern California and Nevada, where winter storm watches or warnings have been posted. The Sierra Nevada region could expect several feet of snow at higher elevations. 

  Snow forecast for I-80 & HWY 50. Heaviest snow amounts expected Saturday evening into Sunday. Up to 2-3 feet of snow are possible at pass levels. Snow decreases Monday night, with lighter snow accumulations continuing into Tuesday. Avoid travel by Saturday afternoon! #cawx pic.twitter.com/adotwjm2sf

  — NWS Sacramento (@NWSSacramento) November 29, 2019

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  Heavy rain and gusty winds are forecasted for the coasts and valleys through Monday with rainfall totals 2 to 4 inches. Mudslides and flooded roadways are likely for parts of Northern California. 

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  NWS meteorologist Lara Pagano said the second storm has already created a nightmare for travelers in the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes from Friday through Sunday. The storm is then expected to dump a mix of wintery precipitation across the Northeast from Sunday into Monday.

  “We’re seeing travel impacts for the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes, and then that’s going to transition into portions of the Northeast for wintry precipitation as we get through the remainder of Sunday, Sunday night and then getting into Monday as well,” says Pagano. The Great Lakes region is going to see “significant snow and blizzard conditions that will continue into early tomorrow.”

  Traveling north and west of Sioux Falls today? That may not be very easy, or even possible in some cases. A major winter storm will continue to take shape today and come to an end through the day on Sunday. pic.twitter.com/upbfUO7xAj

  — NWS Sioux Falls (@NWSSiouxFalls) November 30, 2019

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The storm is expected to arrive in the Northeast by late Sunday afternoon. New York, Connecticut, and Massachusetts could be setting up for a “nasty evening…complete with snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain. 8 pm radar shown below,” tweeted Ed Vallee, head meteorologist at Empire Weather.

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  He said, “We continue to be concerned for very heavy snowfall in the southern Green Mountains, Berkshires, and Monadnocks, where we expect 8-16″ of accumulation by Tuesday, varying with elevation.”

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  NWS tweeted that the winter storm could create “difficult travel conditions across parts of the Eastern US Sunday & Monday. The big storm that moved onto the west Coast last Tue will reach the Eastern US this weekend, redeveloping off the Delmarva coast Sun evening & moving Northeast on Monday.” 

  Wintry weather will produce some difficult travel conditions across parts of the Eastern US Sunday & Monday. The big storm that moved onto the west Coast last Tue will reach the Eastern US this weekend, redeveloping off the Delmarva coast Sun evening & moving northeast on Monday. pic.twitter.com/TqhkWvBNSu

  — NWS Eastern Region (@NWSEastern) November 29, 2019

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  NYC Sanitation Department Commissioner Kathryn Garcia told reporters at a Saturday press conference that 705 storm spreaders are “loaded” and ready to combat the winter storm. The city could see 1 to 4 inches, Garcia said.

  Airports from Philadelphia, New York, and Boston are expected to be hit with delays through Monday. 

  From start to finish, this Thanksgiving holiday season has been a nightmare for travelers on both coasts. 

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sun, 12/01/2019 – 15:00

  Tags

  Weather

  

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• Will America's Trade Policy End Up Destroying The Dollar?
  Will America’s Trade Policy End Up Destroying The Dollar?

  Authored by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,

  America’s tariffs against China are already showing signs of undermining the global economy and will create a funding crisis for the Federal Government when it leads to foreigners no longer buying US Treasury debt and selling down their existing dollar holdings. A subversive attempt by America to divert global portfolio investment from China by destabilising Hong Kong will force China into a Plan B to fund its infrastructure plans, which could involve actively selling down her dollar reserves and hastening the introduction of a new crypto-based trade settlement currency.

  The US budget deficit will then be financed entirely by monetary inflation. Furthermore, the turn of the credit cycle, made more destructive by trade tariffs, is driving the global and US economy into a slump, further accelerating all indebted governments’ dependency on inflationary financing. The end result is America’s trade policies have been instrumental in hastening the end of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, ultimately leading to its destruction.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Introduction

  For almost two years President Trump has imposed various tariffs on imported Chinese goods. He advertised his tactics as hardball from a tough president who knows the art of the deal, taking his business acumen and applying it to foreign affairs. He even proudly described himself as a tariff man.

  His opening gambit was to impose tariffs on some goods to get leverage over the Chinese, with the threat that if they didn’t cooperate, then further tariffs would be introduced. The Chinese declined to be cowed by threats, introducing tariffs themselves on US imports, particularly agricultural products, to bring pressure to bear in turn on President Trump.

  Egged on by his trade adviser Peter Navarro and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, Trump has continued to intensify his tariff policies, oblivious to the damage being done to the global economy. Putting aside Panglossian statistics, both America and China are now heading for a recession that is increasingly likely to deepen significantly. America’s consumer-driven economy is yet to reflect much of a slow-down, though producer countries dependent on either or both economies, such as Germany, are already descending into a manufacturing slump. China’s GDP is registering a growth rate of about 6%, low by Chinese standards, but being no more than a money total this is just a reflection of the quantity of money still being pumped into the Chinese economy by the authorities.

  As the world descends into an economic contraction, it will not be reflected in government statistics, because all economies are having increasing quantities of fiat money pumped into them. Financial market participants naively believe that changes in GDP indicate an economy’s condition. If that was the case, the German economy in 1918-23 was an economic miracle and not the disaster history has led us to believe. The impoverishment of the masses, just like today’s reported impoverishment of Venezuelans and Zimbabweans must have been misreported, because nominal GDP was increasing ten or a hundredfold. Then there is the deflator. Ah, the deflator: a concoction by statisticians who appear to be under a government cosh to keep it as low as possible. That’s easy to deal with: introduce price controls across the board and use those official prices as a basis for the CPI. Infinite GDP growth is then assured.

  That is the ultimate logic of perennial bulls and the errors should be obvious. At some stage, market participants beholden to the system will awaken to the lie that GDP, nominal or adjusted, has any statistical value, even in respectable jurisdictions. Banks will be rescued, and unemployment will rise, but GDP will continue to inflate – sorry, grow. The effect on prices so far has been subdued. At least, if you believe the official CPI version. Tariffs will end up blowing a hole in inflation targets while the global economy slumps and borrowing costs will then rise inexorably.

  It’s time to discover why the America-China financial war and trade war will end up undermining the dollar.

  US’s deep state strategy is stuck in the cold war era

  Besides President Trump’s policy on tariffs, the permanent staff in the intelligence and military complexes are the driving force behind Cold War 2 against China and Russia. Russia has been in their sights since Yalta. Control of the Middle East along with Libya and Afghanistan have been key objectives. The Western alliance, comprising the US and its European handmaidens, has been focusing on oil, but at its root is the justification of US military spending. US taxpayers have been told that the Middle East, North Africa and more recently the Ukraine are important to stop Russia either dominating global energy supplies or pursuing territorial ambitions.

  Russia’s military power is not as strong as projected by US military propagandists. It has excellent nuclear capability but an underequipped out-of-date military. Who can forget the sight of Russia’s one aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov, chugging from the Baltic to the Mediterranean to come to Syria’s aid, breaking down and emitting clouds of black smoke, needing tugs to nurse it along? It is the naval equivalent of the ghastly Trabant motor car of the 1980s. The most egregious example of Russia’s non-nuclear might perhaps, but indicative, nonetheless.

  The same is broadly true of Russia’s army. Its capability is limited, and American battle failures in the field are their own. Russia does not even try to punch above its weight, choosing to dance round the ring and tire out its opponent that way. Despite its superior equipment and battlefield technology, America usually then succumbs to its own errors.

  As an adversary, China is in a different league to Russia altogether. At least America’s military complex knows not to take China on. Instead, more subversive tactics are deployed, and this is why Hong Kong has become the pressure point against China, destroying the investment link for international funds investing in Chinese infrastructure projects.

  Logically, America should have accommodated China long ago, recognizing the dollar’s role as the supreme fiat currency would not then be challenged. But that would have led to the entire military complex being downsized over time: peace is not good for the war business. Without doubt it would have been economically beneficial for everyone other than the military. American corporations were happily running manufacturing operations in China and South East Asia as high-quality processors in their supply chains. Trump’s simple world, where China steals American jobs was never the case.

  US Government’s developing funding crisis

  The statistics in Table 1 summarise America’s financial problem.

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  These figures tell us that since the turn of the millennium 94% of America’s accumulated budget deficit is covered by the accumulated balance of payments deficit. In other words, almost all the budget deficit is financed directly or indirectly by inward capital flows, and very little can be attributed to genuine demand for US Treasuries by America’s savers.

  This result is to be expected, since it reflects an accounting identity at the national level. The accounting identity tells us that unless there is an increase in national savings, a budget deficit will be financed by capital arising from the trade deficit. We can also say the money to cover the budget deficit in the absence of capital inflows and an increase in savings can only be through monetary inflation. In other words, through the debasement of the currency substituting for genuine savings.

  In practice, foreign-owned dollars do not all go into US Treasuries, and investment outflows must be taken into account as well. Since 2000, according to Treasury TIC figures these are approximately $9 trillion, while total investment inflows at about $16 trillion leaves us with net inflows of $7 trillion, implying that foreign-owned cash and deposits in the US banks will have expanded to fill the gap between investment flows and the total balance of payments deficit. And indeed, we find that these balances amount to $4.3 trillion, accounting almost entirely for the gap between net inflows and the accumulated budget deficit in Table 1.

  Obviously, there are other flows involved, but they are not material to the point. In the absence of an increase in savings, a budget deficit will always lead to a balance of payments deficit. How it is covered, by a combination of net inward capital flows and monetary inflation is a separate, but important consideration to which we will return later.

  Now that the US faces a recession, the budget deficit will rise due to lower than forecast tax receipts and higher than expected welfare costs. The deeper the recession, the greater the deficit, which before the recessionary effect is factored in was forecast by the Congressional Budget Office to be just over one trillion dollars for the current fiscal year, which is two months in. It will obviously be somewhat higher, requiring funding by a combination of inward capital flows and monetary expansion.

  If the foreigners don’t play ball, funding the budget deficit will be entirely down to monetary inflation. Worse, if they reduce their dollar holdings, not only will monetary expansion have to make up the funding difference for the government, but it will also have to address net foreign sales of existing treasuries and other US dollar assets as well. At end-June 2018 the total value of those assets including those held before 2000 were recorded at $19.4 trillion, plus bank deposits and short-term assets of $4.3bn, taking the total to $23.7 trillion.[i] This is the same approximate size as the US Government’s total debt and slightly more than US GDP.

  Will foreigners sell US assets?

  Naturally, dollar-based capital markets believe in the dollar and its hegemonic status. This extends to a belief that foreigners in financial trouble will always demand dollars and the more their trouble the greater their demand for dollars is likely to be. It is a mantra that ignores the fact that foreigners are up to their eyes in dollars already.

  Look at it from China’s point of view. The bulk of her foreign reserves of $3.1 trillion are in dollars, with about one third of it in US Government debt. She is helping America to finance its military, which aims to contain and crush China. It’s rather like giving the school bully your baseball bat and inviting him to hit you with it. Furthermore, China’s military strategists have their own view of how America uses her currency’s hegemonic status, and it is not a casual one. They know, or think they know why America has stirred up Hong Kong, and that is to prevent global portfolio flows being invested in China, because America is desperate to have them instead.

  It leaves China with a serious problem. She had expected inward global portfolio flows to help finance her infrastructure projects, and the Americans have effectively succeeded in closing down the Hong Kong Shanghai-connect link, through which foreign investment was to be directed. She is now in a position whereby she may have no alternative but to put her plans on hold or use her own dollar reserves to that end. Besides her US Treasury holdings, she is likely to have a further trillion or so in short-term instruments and bank deposits to draw on.

  A decision to actively reduce her holdings of US Treasuries would not be taken lightly by China. The response from America would likely be an intensification of the financial war, perhaps including an emergency power to stop China selling her Treasury stock. If that happened, China would have no option but to respond, and a dollar crisis would almost certainly ensue. While outcomes with a rational opponent are theoretically predictable, President Trump’s actions and how they mesh with the deep state are less so, making the consequences of any action taken by China deeply unpredictable.

  We shall have to wait to see how this next stage plays out. Meanwhile, the inflationary outlook in America is already deteriorating.

  FMQ confirms a reacceleration of monetary inflation

  After pausing in its headlong growth since the Lehman crisis, the fiat money quantity surged into record territory at $15,812bn at the beginning of October (Figure 1).

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  FMQ is the sum of Austrian true money supply and bank reserves held at the Fed. The reason for its renewed growth is the Fed’s easing by injecting money into the system through its repurchase agreements. FMQ for the beginning of November is likely to be higher still.

  Something is amiss systemically, which appears to require continual monetary injections to prevent a financial crisis. The US economy having been already flooded with money following Lehman, this development is deeply worrying and possibly marks a countdown to the next credit crisis.

  Price inflation will get out of control

  To independent analysts, it should be clear by now that the world is probably teetering on the edge of a cyclical credit crisis, which this time is coupled with the destructive synergy of trade tariffs. Equally, it is obvious that while central bankers and politicians suspect something is wrong, they are clueless about the forces involved, otherwise they would not have implemented monetary policies that led to the situation today.

  In the short-term, as we saw with the Lehman crisis when a credit crisis hits, there will probably be a panic into safety. But for the eventual outcome we must look beyond any initial effect. America and its dollar are central to how events will evolve. As already shown in this article the dollar is over-owned by foreigners, relative to ownership of foreign currencies by Americans. The basis of both categories of ownership is commercial assumptions about current and future prospects for international trade. For this reason a slump will cause demand for all currencies to contract, which in the dollar’s case will need to net selling greater than any repatriation of capital from abroad. Even though most dollars are actually held by foreign governments and their agencies, their strategic reserve decisions are ultimately driven by economic factors.

  Assuming the global economic slump deepens over the next few years, at a time when the American budget deficit will be increasing rapidly foreigners will be sellers of dollars and underlying US assets, including US Treasuries. Unless private sector actors in America increase their propensity to save, the budget deficit will have to be financed instead entirely by inflationary means.

  Broadly, other than intertemporal factors there are two ways in which monetary inflation can translate into higher prices: a relative desire to reduce possession of the currency relative to goods either by domestic users or by foreigners. The two preceding paragraphs describe why foreigners are likely to turn sellers for reasons of trade, to which we can add the further consideration that over the last year a combination of a rising dollar and falling US Treasury yields have been immensely profitable for them, an experience which might not be repeated next year. So, while domestic users may be slow to see the dollar’s purchasing power accelerate in its decline, the push to a weakening dollar is likely to come from abroad, at least initially.

  All holders of dollars will find that their ownership of dollars relative to goods will be increasing rapidly, due to inflationary financing to cover a rising budget deficit. Instead of consumers and other economic actors associated with Main Street, the banks owe the bulk of their balances and deposits to other financial entities and foreigners. Therefore, the domestic monetary system is potentially more footloose than in the past. The risk to the Fed is that this deposit cohort is more likely to take its cue from factors such as the foreign exchanges, the price of gold and even cryptocurrencies, speeding up the fall in the dollar’s purchasing power once it begins to slide.

  It is a long time since we have seen it, but when the smart money begins to view things negatively, everything the Fed does with monetary policy, or the executive does fiscally, leads to failure. A falling dollar leads to rising interest rates in the markets, and the government’s funding crisis will be laid bare for all to see. And with the Fed and the US Treasury staffed with neo-Keynesians, a policy reversal to stabilise the currency by making it sound will be the last thing that happens.

  A world driven to trade isolationism

  American trade policy under President Trump is isolationist and at odds with the role of a reserve currency. His mantra of “Make America Great Again” and his determination to build a wall on the Mexican border are testament to his thinking. If anything, America’s introspection towards Russia and China has strengthened their partnership as joint Asian hegemons. Their decision to progress their economies without America and its dollars was taken by America for them. Russia has already turned most of her dollars into gold and continues to do so. China’s plans to evolve her economy into a more consumer oriented one are underway, but she is still too dependent on export-oriented trade to disregard ties with her Western trading partners.

  Consequently, China can be expected to accelerate plans for her vision of a consumer-driven middle class. In order to do so she will dispose of the dollar for trade purposes as much as possible. At the meeting of the BRICS nations in Brazil earlier this month, a common cryptocurrency was discussed, ostensibly to reduce currency volatility, but in reality, to eliminate the dollar as a common settlement medium between BRICS members.

  So far, China has seen the redundancy of the dollar as a gradual evolutionary process. But America’s policy of diverting global portfolio flows from China is likely to lead to China drawing down on her foreign reserves, particularly her holdings of US dollars, to replace expected capital inflows. She will still be dependent on imports of raw materials, for which some dollars will be needed; but so long as she has a trade surplus, and she insists on her preferences for trade settlement by other means, China’s dollar requirements will be minimised.

  China can probably weather the political consequences of a collapse in international trade, because for the population American aggression is clearly to blame. While China has had to amend its plans and is resisting precipitative action, there can be no doubt her determination to do away with the dollar is more urgent. Together with Russia, the other BRICS members and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation as well as her trade counterparties in sub-Saharan Africa, China’s policies for trade settlement without the dollar will affect more than half the world’s population.

  And when you get establishment figures in the Western banking system, such as Mark Carney, openly speculating at Jackson Hole last August about a replacement for the dollar in international trade, you know the dollar’s jig is finally up.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 11/30/2019 – 23:30

  Tags

  Business Finance

  

• India Test Fires Nuke-Capable Missile Amid "Israeli Model" For Kashmir Controversy
  India Test Fires Nuke-Capable Missile Amid “Israeli Model” For Kashmir Controversy

  Following a major row over controversial comments from a senior Indian diplomat who in a recent televised speech called for the adoption of the “Israeli model” in Indian-administered Kashmir, New Delhi has added fresh fuel to the fire by another successful test launch of an intermediate-range ballistic missile, the Agni-III, on Saturday. This comes after a series prior short-range nuke capable missile tests over the past two weeks.  

  It was the first night trial of the nuclear capable Agni-III surface-to-surface ballistic missile, fired from an island off India’s east coast into the Bengal Sea. Indian defense sources have touted that the nuke-capable ballistic missile possesses a range of over 1,862 miles, and has successfully hit its targets in the latest tests.

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  Tensions with Pakistan remain on edge over the months-long Kashmir crisis precipitated by the Indian government revoking the autonomy of the state of Jammu & Kashmir (J&K), after which tens of thousands of Indian national troops poured into the Muslim-majority region in a political crackdown.

  And a new diplomatic storm erupted this week after a top diplomat called for Indian to enact the “Israeli model” in disputed Kashmir. Sandeep Chakravorty, India’s consul general in New York, made the comments at a private event captured in a now viral hour-long video.

  Speaking of the ongoing security crackdown in J&K, the senior diplomat said, “I believe the security situation will improve, it will allow the refugees to go back, and in your lifetime, you will be able to go back … and you will be able to find security, because we already have a model in the world.”

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  He was referencing the occupied West Bank and controversial Israeli tactics there, as well as Palestinian East Jerusalem, also under Israeli administration:

  “I don’t know why we don’t follow it. It has happened in the Middle East. If the Israeli people can do it, we can also do it,” he said, adding that the current Indian leadership is “determined” to do so.

  Kashmiri Muslim activist groups were quick to condemn the statements, as well as top Pakistani officials. 

  The remarks further struck a deep nerve given the religious elements in play. Strongly Muslim countries like Pakistan do not have diplomatic relations with Israel, and have repeatedly condemned the Jewish state’s expansionist tactics in the Muslim-majority West Bank as well as military operations inside Gaza. 

  A senior Indian diplomat has sparked anger by calling for the adoption of an “Israeli model” in Indian-administered Kashmir.

  Read more on the story here: https://t.co/lkI7jqHl2C pic.twitter.com/w8hXOJVGM7

  — Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) November 28, 2019

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  One Pakistani ambassador in the Middle East, Muhammad Syrus Sajjad Qazi, called the comments “shocking but not surprising at all.”

  “It has been apparent all-along that encouraged by the international community’s inability or unwillingness to address the situation in the Occupied Palestinian territories, India is now following the same colonial strategy,” he said.

  It’s but the latest in a series of dangerous tit-for-tat incidents, which even briefly broke out into military action back in February, over the heightened Kashmir crisis between the two nuclear powers. 

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 11/30/2019 – 23:00

  Tags

  Politics

  War Conflict

  

• Will The Epstein Story Ever be Fully Told?
  Will The Epstein Story Ever be Fully Told?

  Authored by Bill Rice, Jr.

  More than four months after Jeffrey Epstein’s arrest – and three months after his alleged suicide –  it requires no opinion poll to know that few Americans believe the story of the international sex trafficking ring orchestrated by Epstein and his alleged “co-accomplices” will ever be fully told.

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  More specifically, many Americans believe that most (if not all) of the key questions regarding the case will remain unanswered. For example …

  • How many Epstein “associates” actually received sexual “services” from underage girls? Will all (or even any) of these people be identified, exposed and perhaps prosecuted? Were any of these individuals blackmailed, extorted or in any way compromised?

  • Did employees within agencies of the U.S. government turn a blind eye to Epstein’s activities? Was Epstein, in fact, “intelligence” and, if so, on whose orders was Alex Acosta allegedly told to leave Epstein alone?

  • Did Epstein continue his sex-trafficking operation even after being released from jail in 2009? If so, how was this possible? 

  • Where did Epstein receive the money to fund his operation, including the acquisition of the largest private residence in Manhattan, two secluded private islands in the Virgin Islands, a secluded “ranch” in New Mexico, two large jets and a helicopter?

  • Why, for years, did the “watchdog” press display no interest in a scandal that, if fully told, could qualify as the “story of the century,”  a story that might implicate many more powerful people and government agencies than Watergate?

  • Pertinent facts surrounding Epstein’s death, ruled a suicide, have also yet to be disclosed. One unanswered question: How was it possible an inmate who may have possessed “dirt” on the most powerful people in the world could be left alone in his cell?

  In short, at least in the opinion of many, the public will never learn how massively corrupt our system of justice may be, and if a privileged class is in fact held to a different standard of justice, and/or is protected by the powers that be. Nor will the public learn how prurient, immoral and brazen a cross-section of the world’s elite may be.

  Of course, authorities may, in fact, do their jobs and ultimately disclose the entire scale of Epstein’s operation. Prosecutions and plea deals to come could include a “Who’s Who” of the world, and expose any government agencies that may have “looked the other way.”

  At least theoretically, our government could  expose a decades-long criminal operation, a revelation that very possibly would change the way millions of people view the U.S. government; not to mention how the public views many powerful VIPs who navigate in the orbit of politicians and policy-makers.

  Once upon a time, the number Americans who believed justice would ultimately prevail in a case like Epstein’s would probably have filled a good-sized nation. Today, the number who posses this conviction might fill a medium-sized city.

  Citizens who doubt the full story of the Epstein saga will ever be revealed have little trouble citing stories that explain their metastasizing skepticism.

  For example, plenty of people did notice when Saudi Arabia and its Crown Prince Prince Mohammed bin Salman suffered no adverse consequences following the gruesome murder of columnist Jamal Khashoggi, a murder many people believe the prince ordered.

  Others remain befuddled as UK authorities continue to insist that the government of Russia commissioned a hit team that used nerve agents in the assassination attempt of Sergei and Yulia Skripal, this despite the copious number of holes that pockmark the “official” story.

  Similarly, the narrative that Syria President Bashar al–Assad “gassed his own people” – a highly questionable proposition to many – has nonetheless been widely accepted as truth, at least by intelligence agencies and a press corps that increasingly accepts official pronouncements as incontrovertible.

  [editor’s note: see Caitlin Johnstone’s latest on two OPCW whistleblowers whose claims effectively dubunk the narrative]

  The aggressive prosecution (persecution) of Julian Assange is another story that disturbs at least some citizens. The fact so few members of the mainstream press have rallied to Assange’s defense has only deepened the depression of one-time idealists.

  And these examples do not include the most dubious government narrative of them all, the assertion Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction, a false predicate that ultimately caused the death and suffering of millions of people.

  Cynics could also point to an investigation that, unlike several of the above examples, did receive incessant press coverage – the story that Russia somehow “rigged” or “hacked” a U.S. presidential election, a conclusion accepted as gospel by most in the mainstream press, but viewed as preposterous by millions of Americans.

  In these and other cases, a growing number of citizens have come to believe that official “investigations” and “official findings” are either a sham or intentionally omit details which do not support the desired meme.

  It’s within this context that millions of Americans have latched onto the Epstein story and the growing conviction that our government (and press corp) have become more interested in concealing truths than exposing them.

  The Epstein story is not just the latest scandal of the week. The number of individuals who could have been involved, or who might have worked to cover-up its existence, almost certainly dwarfs the number implicated in Watergate.

  The list of those who might have some knowledge of Epstein’s criminal enterprise includes a sitting president, ex-presidents, ex-prime ministers, Justice Department officials, State Department officials, FBI agents, employees of domestic and international intelligence agencies, state prosecutors, local law enforcement, politicians, ex-politicians, lobbyists, titans of industry and finance, CEOs, attorneys, accountants, banks and bankers, celebrities, academics, scientists, political operatives and executives within the Fourth Estate.

  Almost five months after Epstein’s arrest, one is struck by curious events that have already occurred and by developments yet to occur.

  For example, how is it possible that Ghislaine Maxwell – the “Bonnie” to Epstein’s “Clyde” – has yet to be charged with any crimes? Or, as far as the public knows, even been questioned by authorities.

  Public skepticism about the “investigation” spiked when, five weeks after his arrest, the FBI finally raided Epstein’s “Lolita” Island.  Epstein’s “ranch” in New Mexico has still not been searched.

  The public has also received no indication that authorities are, in fact, questioning any of Epstein’s many “associates,” especially those who may have had sexual contact with girls recruited and groomed by Epstein and Maxwell.

  Every person named in court documents or press reports as allegedly or possibly having sex with an underaged girl or young woman at Epstein’s bequest has denied the allegations.  Which begs the question: Who’s telling the truth and who’s lying? To form an opinion on this central question, authorities would presumably need to interview anyone with possible knowledge of alleged sexual or criminal acts. Investigators could then seek information that either corroborates or impeaches each person’s account.

  However, evidence is growing that the protocol in a typical “he-said, she-said” investigation is not being followed in the Epstein case. Instead, authorities may have simply accepted as truth the statements of denial issued by powerful public figures.

  True or not, many Americans believe the Department of “Justice” will not prosecute (perhaps even question) scores of individuals who may have broken U.S. laws and who may have been victims of a disturbing blackmail operation.

  Perhaps authorities have concluded it’s better to not know. Perhaps they realize if they interview one suspected “John,” they’ll have to interview every potential “John.” if this number ends up being massive, and includes a Who’s Who of our society, important illusions about society’s leaders and our system of justice could be shattered.

  At its core, the Epstein case will reveal whether government prosecutors and investigators possess the courage and integrity to expose sordid truths about some of the wealthiest,  most-connected, powerful people in the world, and perhaps reveal embarrassing truths about our  government.

  Americans might soon learn what objective is more important to Justice Department officials: Protecting the rich and powerful from the consequences of their behavior, or confirming that a system of justice grounded in trust can still be trusted.

  Sadly, many Americans are convinced authorities will not do the right thing.

  However, in proving skeptics wrong, authorities would accomplish at least four objectives, all noble. They would punish the guilty. They would provide justice to victims too long ignored. They would deter future Epsteins and future “Johns,” especially those unaccustomed to being held accountable for their actions. And, perhaps most importantly, they would allow a ray of sunshine to pierce the shadow of cynicism that’s spread across our country.

  While such a development might not restore all trust in government, it would be an eye-opening start. For those who believe the moral character of a nation is important, it would send a message that all hope is not lost.

  ****

  Bill Rice, Jr. is a freelance writer in Troy, Alabama. He can be reached by email at wjricejunior@gmail.com

   

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 11/30/2019 – 22:30

  Tags

  Law Crime

  

• Schwab Abandons High-Tax San Francisco For New $100 Million Mega-HQ In Dallas  
  Schwab Abandons High-Tax San Francisco For New $100 Million Mega-HQ In Dallas  

  Charles Schwab’s $26 billion deal to acquire TD Ameritrade will result in the relocation of its San Francisco-based headquarters to Dallas-Fort Worth, reported The Wall Street Journal. 

  Schwab gave no timeframe on the transition to Westlake, a suburb of Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas. The region is considered one of the fastest-growing financial hubs in the country at the moment. The merger is expected to be completed in 2H20 and could take 12 to 36 months to integrate both firms completely. 

  Schwab’s new Dallas-Fort Worth campus will cost around $100 million, covers 70 acres with 500,000 square feet of office space. 

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  Schwab chairman and founder Charles Schwab noted that one of the drivers in the move out of California was the high cost of doing business in the state, “…the costs of doing business here are so much higher than some other place.”

  Schwab expects the merger could produce 20% savings, or about $2 billion. 

  “With this transaction, we will capitalize on the unique opportunity to build a firm with the soul of a challenger and the resources of a large financial services institution that will be uniquely positioned to serve the investment, trading and wealth management needs of investors across every phase of their financial journeys,” Schwab President Walt Bettinger said in a statement.

  The Journal notes the brokerage house will pay significantly fewer taxes in Texas: 

  “The Lone Star State imposes a 0.75% franchise tax on business margins (total revenue minus compensation), which is substantially less than the corporate tax rates in California (8.84%) and Nebraska (7.81%), where TD Ameritrade is currently headquartered. The city of San Francisco also imposes a 0.38% payroll tax and a 0.6% gross receipts tax on financial service companies.

  Texas has no individual income tax, while the top rate on income and capital gains in California is 13.3%, and the Lone Star State’s housing and energy costs are substantially lower. The average monthly rent in San Francisco is $3,870 compared to $1,200 in Dallas. Schwab workers and executives can have a higher standard of living, and more after-tax income, at the same salaries.”

  Schwab said it would keep a “sizeable corporate footprint” in San Francisco, but the brokerage house will likely wind down operations in the state through 2025.

  With the cost of doing business significantly less in Texas, the move has become a no brainer. It has also become favorable with employees, who will soon enjoy affordable housing and a cheaper cost of living. They will also enjoy city streets free of epidural needles and human feces, makeshift tent cities, and no rolling blackouts from the local power company. 

  The great corporate exit of California will be a devastating trend for the state. Other companies will likely follow suit in the years ahead.

  Everyone leaving NY and CA for TX and in 5 years TX will be the same. Then where do they all move? pic.twitter.com/oYv8vFiWbm

  — Hipster (@Hipster_Trader) November 30, 2019

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  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 11/30/2019 – 22:00

  Tags

  Business Finance

  

• Starbucks Barista, Who Called Cop "PIG" On Thanksgiving, Fired
  Starbucks Barista, Who Called Cop “PIG” On Thanksgiving, Fired

  A Starbucks employee who printed the word “PIG” on the labels of a Kiefer, Oklahoma police officer’s coffee has been fired, according to the company.

  The Kiefer police officer went to the Glenpool Starbucks on Thursday to pick up five drinks for dispatchers working on Thanksgiving, according to Police Chief Johnny O’Mara in a Facebook post.

  “What irks me is the absolute and total disrespect for a police officer who, instead of being home with family and enjoying a meal and a football game, is patrolling his little town,” he added.

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  “This cup of coffee for a ‘pig’ is just another little flag,” the post continues. “It’s another tiny symptom and a nearly indiscernible shout from a contemptuous, roaring and riotous segment of a misanthropic society that vilifies those who stand for what’s right and glorifies the very people who would usher in the destruction of the social fabric. It’s another tiny pinprick into the heart of men and women who are asking themselves more often: ‘Why am I doing this?'”

  Starbucks called the incident “absolutely unacceptable,” adding that they are “deeply sorry to the law enforcement officer who experienced this,” according to CNN.

  “The Starbucks partner who wrote this offensive word on a cup used poor judgement and is no longer a partner after this violation of company policy,” reads a company statement. “This language is offensive to all law enforcement and is not representative of the deep appreciation we have for police officers who work tirelessly to keep our communities safe.”

  The company issued a joint statement with the Kiefer police department, saying they’re using the incident “as an opportunity to leverage our shared platforms to promote greater civility.”

  The Seattle-based coffee chain will meet with Kiefer police to discuss other ways to work together, and will host a Coffee with a Cop event where baristas and and members of the community will be educated as to “the critical role dispatchers and police offers play in keeping our communities safe.”

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 11/30/2019 – 21:35

• China Adopts Malicious "Cybersecurity" Rules
  China Adopts Malicious “Cybersecurity” Rules

  Authored by Gordon Chang via The Gatestone Institute,

  On January 1, China’s Cryptography Law becomes effective. The legislation follows the December 1 implementation of the Multi-Level Protection Scheme 2.0, issued under the authority of the 2016 Cybersecurity Law.

  Together, these measures show Beijing’s absolute determination to seize from foreign companies all their communications, data, and other information stored in electronic form in China.

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  Beijing’s complete visibility into the networks of foreign companies will have extremely disadvantageous consequences. (Photo: Wikimedia Commons.)

  President Trump should use his emergency powers to prohibit American companies from complying with the new rules or from storing data in China.

  After all these “cybersecurity” rules are in place, no foreign company may encrypt data so that it cannot be read by the Chinese central government and the Communist Party of China. In other words, businesses will be required to turn over encryption keys.

  Companies will also be prohibited from employing virtual private networks to keep data secret, and some believe they will no longer be allowed to use private servers.

  Beijing’s system, once implemented, will be so invasive that Chinese authorities will no longer need to ask foreign businesses to turn over data. Chinese officials will simply be able to take that data on their own.

  “Once data crosses the Chinese border on a network,” writes Steve Dickinson in the China Law Blog,

  “100 percent of that data will be 100 percent available to the Chinese government and the CCP.”

  Beijing’s complete visibility into the networks of foreign companies will have extremely disadvantageous consequences, Dickinson notes.

  First, Chinese officials will be permitted, under Chinese law, to share seized information with state enterprises. This means the enterprises will be able to use that information against their foreign competitors.

  Second, China’s new rules will almost certainly result in foreign companies losing trade secret protection around the world. A trade secret loses its status as such when it is widely disclosed. Once a company allows such a secret to be carried on its Chinese network, the company has to assume Beijing will know it. “Since no company can reasonably assume its trade secrets will remain secret once transmitted into China over a Chinese controlled network, they are at great risk of having their trade secret protections outside China evaporating as well,” writes Dickinson.

  Third, China’s cybersecurity program exposes companies to penalties for violating U.S. tech-export legislation. Businesses have assumed that technology covered by U.S. export prohibitions is not “exported” if it is kept on a Chinese network protected by end-to-end encryption, in other words, not available to Chinese authorities. Because companies will no longer be permitted to encrypt data end-to-end, they will almost certainly be considered as violating U.S. rules for tech stored on a network in China.

  Not every analyst is alarmed by China’s December 1 measures. James Andrew Lewis, for instance, maintains that Beijing’s new rules are a “legitimate effort” to secure networks in China. Moreover, he argues the Chinese do not need the new MLPS 2.0 rules to grab information because they can just steal all they want with their advanced “APT” hacker groups. “Their intent is not to use it for malicious purposes,” Lewis argues, referring to Chinese officials.

  It is not clear how Lewis, a tech expert at the Washington, D.C.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, can know the intent of China’s officials. Furthermore, portraying that intent as benign seems naive—laughable even—while their country is stealing hundreds of billions of dollars of American intellectual property each year and while Chinese ruler Xi Jinping continues his determined attacks on foreign business. In these circumstances, we have to assume Chinese officials are acting with malign intent.

  Lewis also downplays the basic point that China’s cyber spies, once they have the encryption keys and access to the China network of a foreign firm, will be in a better position to penetrate the networks of that firm outside China. Therefore, it will only be a matter of time before Beijing steals data and puts companies out of business or ruins them to the point where Chinese entities can swoop in and buy them up cheap. Many allege that China stole data from Canada’s Nortel Networks and thereby bankrupted it almost a decade ago. The company was, according to the Financial Post, “hacked to pieces.”

  Finally, CSIS’s Lewis fails to recognize that Beijing’s December 1 rules generally legitimize China’s regulation and information-custody role–in other words, China’s theft.

  Senator Josh Hawley is rightly more suspicious of Beijing’s intentions. In November, the Missouri Republican introduced a bill, the National Security and Data Protection Act of 2019, prohibiting American companies from storing user data or encryption keys in China. Of course, this bill faces opposition from tech companies doing business in that country.

  Yet, there is someone who can, with the stroke of a pen, effectively implement Hawley’s bill. President Donald John Trump can use his broad powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 to prohibit companies from complying with the pernicious new rules or from storing data in China.

  The rationale for such a sweeping presidential order is that the American people have an interest in China not taking control of American companies with operations in China–a probable consequence of the application of the December 1 and January 1 measures.

  Such an emergency order would effectively force American companies out of China, so this step would be drastic. Yet it is China, with its incredibly ambitious grab of data, that is forcing the issue.

  The American people have a vital interest in the protection of American data. Trump should issue such an order immediately.

  *  *  *

  Gordon G. Chang is the author of The Coming Collapse of China and a Gatestone Institute Distinguished Senior Fellow. Follow him on Twitter @GordonGChang.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 11/30/2019 – 21:30

• War And Peace: How Violence Is Disrupting The Global Economy
  War And Peace: How Violence Is Disrupting The Global Economy

  Although you may not see it, millions of lives are disrupted by violence everyday.

  War, homicide, terrorism, suicide, and sexual assault can be found across the world in various degrees; but, as Visual Capitalist’s Katie Jones details below, while certain types of violence can incur costs that result in personal traumas, violence can also create significant economic disruptions.

  In today’s Chart of the Week, we visualize data estimates from the Global Peace Index 2019 on the global cost of violence, and its geographical spread.

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  How is Violence Linked to the Economy?

  The Global Peace Index calculates the total cost of violence using purchasing power parity (PPP) by considering three factors:

  • Direct costs: Immediate consequences to the victims, perpetrators and the government

  • Indirect costs: Delayed economic losses following the violent event, including the after-effects of trauma experienced by the victim

  • Multiplier effect: Calculates the additional economic activity that would have accrued if the direct costs of violence had been avoided.

  Between 2012-2017, the cost of violence increased by 11% to $14.6 trillion—mainly due to rising violence in Syria, Libya, Yemen, and other parts of the Middle East and North Africa.

  In 2018, the total cost of violence decreased for the first time in six years to $14.1 trillion. That’s the equivalent of 11.2% of global GDP (PPP), or $1,853 for every person.

  In this one year, the $475 billion saved from decreased violence costs was largely due to lower levels of armed conflict in Syria, Ukraine, and Colombia.

  The Top 10 Worst Affected Countries

  It comes as no surprise that countries affected by conflict incur the greatest costs due to a higher than average death toll, and sizable military expenditures.

  Here are the countries with the highest cost of violence according to the report:

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  Since 2017, Venezuela has climbed the ranking and now sits in the top 10, due to continuing political repression and a spiraling economy as a result of hyperinflation.

  The Global Composition of Violence

  Government spending on military comprises 40% of the global total, or $5.7 trillion in constant purchasing power parity (PPP).

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  Naturally, the types of violence costs vary by region, and the most noticeable difference is in military expenditure. It represents 59% of Middle East and North Africa’s violence costs—but only 8% for Central America and the Caribbean.

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  Interestingly, the Middle East and North Africa boast the lowest levels of violent crime, homicide, and suicide, representing only 4% of the total, compared to South America’s 45%.

  Keeping the Peace

  Despite today’s chart painting a picture of the world as a dangerous place, it is worth noting that there are two sides to this story.

  Of the 163 countries ranked in the index, 86 countries improved their peace score in the last year, with Iceland retaining its number one position for over a decade. In fact, the country has not had any gun murders since the Global Peace Index began in 2007.

  Is the recent drop in costs of violence a sign that we are moving towards a more peaceful planet, or just a blip on the radar?

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 11/30/2019 – 21:00

  Tags

  Politics

  

• How To Lose An Election 2.0: Mike Bloomberg's Train-Wreck Campaign
  How To Lose An Election 2.0: Mike Bloomberg’s Train-Wreck Campaign

  Authored by Sarah Cowgill via LiberetyNation.com,

  Johnny-come-lately to the Democratic primary circus, Michael Bloomberg, is two steps into a tight rope walk without a net and the unzippered tent flaps aren’t keeping out the blustery wind gusts blowing through the Big Top. Already irritating his own media business, Bloomberg News, with an edict to not report the ugliness of truth against Democrats and his own sorry self and polls stuck on the “we like Trump” needle, Mr. Bloomberg’s campaign staffers appear ready to mutiny.

  Mikey’s 2020 campaign chief, Kevin Sheekey, who says the entire election hinges on Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida, and Arizona, also admitted that “right now Donald Trump is winning, he is winning that election.”

  Not even a scintilla of a message, “hey, my guy is in now and look out!” Nope. And then he laid out the most seemingly inept campaign strategy in our lifetime.

  How To Lose An Election 2.0

  Former mayor of the Big Apple, Bloomberg, is complacent with a large base within a stone’s throw of his ivory towered offices. I’d imagine a New York state of mind, much as Hillary embraced, makes one feel they have the entire nation front and center and rearing to pull the ballot lever just for them. Why else would Madam Clinton skip every rural mile of the Midwest, Bible Belt, and Rust Belt states? And according to Sheekey, that is Team Bloomberg’s 2020 strategic plan as well.

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  Michael Bloomberg

  The first major misstep is the questionable decision to skip visiting any of the early primary states: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina – a traditional early indicator of who can go the distance.

  But Sheekey has a better, more universal plan. He is calling his Bloomberg appearance strategy a “national political campaign,” vowing Bloomberg will be speaking to “everyone in the country at once.” Pretty ambitious – or downright lazy – when ratings for the Democratic Primary Debates are at dismal levels. Can Americans be forced to listen? Sheekey believes it can be done:

  “You can say it’s never been done before, but you also have to say no one’s ever tried it before. We’re going to talk to everyone in the country at once and we’re particularly going to overtalk to those people who need to vote …”

  Surround Yourself With Best

  Every US president – with only a few exceptions – knew to select the best, most loyal, and in-depth issue-oriented advisors. The same strategy is true in the trenches of a heated, highly populated campaign. You simply hire the best. Bloomberg may want to reassess the plans his campaign chief is spouting on Twitter and CNN about sitting back and allowing the people – all on their own – to tune in to the latest candidate infomercial penned by Sheekey:

  “Mike is getting in this race because he thinks that Donald Trump is an existential crisis and he thinks he’s on a path to victory and he’s getting in to alter that dynamic.”

  In other words, Mike joined the race because he has an overblown ego and knows the current field cannot beat the president if the election were held today. If this is his best campaign foot forward, he may bow out before early primaries even begin.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 11/30/2019 – 20:30

  Tags

  Politics

  

• Which Countries Offer The Longest Retirements
  Which Countries Offer The Longest Retirements

  In a world where central banks have repressed savers with over a decade of zero and negative interest rates, crushing the middle class and turning the US into a banana republic whose middle class is now shrinking so fast…

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  … it is on par with that of Russia, China and Turkey…

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  … it is perhaps remarkable that workers are still able to leave the workforce and enjoy some years of peaceful retirement instead of working every day until they die.

  Of course when it comes to retirement, some countries are more equal than others – especially those where worker entitlements have been historically so generous that removing them would lead to nothing short of revolution, even if it means a slow motion fiscal suicide for the state which can no longer afford such generosity. 

  So for all those asking which countries have the most generous retirement systems, here it the answer. We doubt it will come as a surprise that some of Europe’s most fiscally challenged countries are also those that offer the longest retirement across the entire OECD universe. Incidentally, those pointing out the “sexism” that women tend to live longer and enjoy a longer retirement, we are confident that no feminists will touch that particular “inequality” with a ten foot pole.

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  A tangent of the chart above: just because some of Europe’s most socialist nations have the most retirement regimes right now, does not mean they will in the future: as the next chart shows, in an progressively aging world, where there is roughly 45 retirees per 100 workers, this number is set to skyrocket by 2050, when such retirement havens as Italy and Greece will sport more than 100 retirees per 100 workers, a regime that is absolutely unsustainable.

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  And one bonus chart: yes, places such as Greece may have one of the most generous retirement regimes, but working all those long years to finally hit retirement in the thrice insolvent European nation is hardly a walk in the park: as the next chart shows, there is a great dispersion between those countries that have the most stressful working environment such as Greece, Turkey, Hungary and Spain, and those where work is a joy such as Scandinavia, New Zealand and the UK (although we somehow doubt the latter will remain on this list for long). Perhaps it’s only fair that after working in hell, one should at least be entitled to a few years of peaceful retirement. 

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  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 11/30/2019 – 20:00

  Tags

  Social Issues

  Labor

  

• London Bridge Killer Was Released From Prison Early On Prior Terrorism Charge
  London Bridge Killer Was Released From Prison Early On Prior Terrorism Charge

  Update: According to The Telegraph, London Bridge attacker Usman Khan, 28, was a convicted terrorist who was released from prison in December 2018 – less than seven years into a 16-year sentence for a plot to bomb the London Stock Exchange.

  He was also a student and personal friend of notorious Islamist hate preacher, Anjem Choudary, whose private cell phone number was stored in Khan’s phone at the time of his initial arrest.

  Khan was one of a series of Al-Muhajiroun connected terrorists to be released over a six-month period beginning in the Autumn of 2018.  He was known to have attended a series of Al-Muhajiroun protests and street stalls in the Midlands area prior to his arrest.

  Before his conviction for the LSE terror plot,  police had previously raided his home in Tunstall over concerns about his links to Choudary. –The Telegraph

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  “All these years later, and Anjem Choudary’s one-time acolytes are still butchering members of the public on our streets,” said terrorism expert, Dr. Paul Stott.

  “Usman Khan was a loyal and integral member of Choudary’s inner-circle and we know him to have been highly regarded by Choudary.”

  Khan — a British citizen born in the UK and of Pakistani origin — left school with no qualifications after spending part of his late teens in Pakistan, where he lived with his mother when she became ill.​ On his return to the UK, he started preaching extremism on the internet and attracted a significant following.

  In January 2012, Khan pleaded guilty to engaging in conduct in preparation for acts of terrorism contrary to section 5(1) of the UK’s Terrorism Act 2006. Khan was among nine men charged with conspiracy to bomb high-profile London targets in the run-up to Christmas in 2010. At the time, the men were described as an Al Qaeda-inspired group that wanted to send mail bombs to various targets and launch a “Mumbai-style” atrocity. At the time of his arrest, Khan lived in Stoke-on-Trent, a city in central England. –Dawn

  Meanwhile, The Mirror reports that the tusk-wielding hero who helped stop the attack using a 5′ Narwhal Tusk he grabbed off a wall is a Polish chef named only as Lukasz, who immigrated to the UK.

  The man armed with a Narwhal tusk who helped to stop the terrorist attack yesterday on London bridge was a Polish chef called Łukasz, reports @thetimes pic.twitter.com/VHEWvhRxT5

  — Notes from Poland 🇵🇱 (@notesfrompoland) November 30, 2019

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  According to friends, he was working at Fishmongers’ Hall when Khan, 28, began attacking attendees at a University of Cambridge conference on prisoner rehabilitation. Kahn, who was wearing a fake suicide vest, killed two and injured three – including Lukasz.

  “Everybody run! There’s a terrorist on the bridge!”

  Lukasz: Get me the tusk

  🇵🇱🇵🇱🇵🇱

  — Jack Posobiec 🇺🇸 (@JackPosobiec) November 30, 2019

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  Khan was killed by the police.

  On Saturday the Queen praised the “brave individuals who put their own lives at risk to selflessly help and protect others.”

  Prime Minister Boris Johnson, meanwhile, has pledged to bolster prison sentences for criminals who commit serious and violent offenses, and that people convicted of terrorism should not be allowed out of prison early.

  “It’s clear to me this guy was out—he served half of his sentence, he was out on automatic, early release—and I have long said that this system isn’t working” said Johnson, standing near the scene of the incident.

  “It does not make sense for us as a society to put terrorists, people convicted of terrorist offenses, out on early release. We argue that people should, that terrorists serve the term of their sentence. That’s my immediate takeaway from this and why we’re working on increasing the sentences for serious, violent offenders,” he added. “I think that the practice of automatic, early release where you cut a sentence in half and let really serious, violent offenders out early simply isn’t working, and you’ve some very good evidence of how that isn’t working, I am afraid, with this case.”

  ***

  A quick-thinking bystander who was inside London’s Fishmonger’s Hall when a deadly terrorist attack began grabbed a 5′ narwhal tusk off the wall and helped subdue a knife-wielding man who killed two pedestrians on London Bridge.

  The attacker, said to be a recently-released terrorist prisoner believed to be wearing a fake suicide vest and a tracking tag, was taken down by the tusk-wielding hero and a man with a fire extinguisher before police shot him dead. 

  Sources have told Sky News the suspect in the London Bridge attack was a recently-released terrorist prisoner believed to have been wearing a tag

  — Sky News Breaking (@SkyNewsBreak) November 29, 2019

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  “A guy who was with us at Fishmongers Hall took a 5′ narwhale [sic] tusk from the wall and went out to confront the attacker,” tweeted Amy Coop.

  A guy who was with us at Fishmongers Hall took a 5’ narwhale tusk from the wall and went out to confront the attacker. You can see him standing over the man (with what looks like a white pole) in the video. We were trying to help victims inside but that man’s a hero #LondonBridge

  — Amy Coop (@theamycoop) November 29, 2019

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  Yup

  — Amy Coop (@theamycoop) November 29, 2019

  There it is. Unbelievable. pic.twitter.com/mWwavqCUMQ

  — Adam Gatto (@adamgatto) November 29, 2019

  When you wrestle a knife from a terrorist but remembered you picked up for the lads tonight. #LondonBridge #LondonBridgeAttack #LondonBridgeIncident #londonshooting pic.twitter.com/rpo8ZO5fgZ

  — RWK (@firedeathpony) November 29, 2019

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  After police stepped in:

  London bridge shooting #London #LondonBridge pic.twitter.com/H5RJQgh60u

  — Jon Stewart (@JonStewartUK) November 29, 2019

  Terrorism attacker lay dead on #Londonbridge 💪🇬🇧

  Brilliant work by armed police pic.twitter.com/ScOqsyOFX6

  — London Crime LDN (@CrimeLdn) November 29, 2019

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  Glad you’re okay. Also, this is legit the most bad ass thing I’ve ever heard.

  — Tom Strachan (@tstrachanedit) November 29, 2019

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  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 11/30/2019 – 19:35

  Tags

  War Conflict

  

• America Wages Economic Warfare On The Globe By Weaponizing Its Mawkish Culture
  America Wages Economic Warfare On The Globe By Weaponizing Its Mawkish Culture

  Authored by Denis A. Conroy for The Saker Blog,

  American nationalism binds the whole-to-its-parts by using narrative to weaponize emotions and broadcast the idea of American ‘wholeness’ as somehow exceptionally greater than the sum of its parts.

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  There can be no doubt that zealotry became the dynamic forging the American character . First and foremostly, enunciations spat out by bearded prophets were carried on the winds of ontological time and eventually landing on the shores of the new world along with bible and crucifix to stave off inequities and help shape a mind-set (and foreign policy) for those taking possession of the Kingdom of God. A colonial policy that inevitably consigned the population of the occupied territories into misery and poverty would in time come to be regarded as regime change. The Protestant reformation was always about gilding the God narrative with a work ethic equal to the sum of its mercantile whole.

  To this very day, individual achievements take precedence over collective values as missionary zeal is believed to have the potential to sublimate the libido and divert energy into productive work activities. The nub of the narrative being the ineffable Protestant-cum-existentialist credential underpinning the virtues of 19th century Anglophile culture that found ways of appeasing the mind with dreamlike emoluments to convey the promise of earthly rewards for the industrious of mind…or simply put; mercantilism became a-one-size-fits-all solution for man’s irascible struggle with his existential hairshirt.

  In time, European mercantile classes would invasively penetrate every corner of the globe for the purpose of wealth extraction. Those who sought material gratification would eventually come to define democracy as freedom to pursue individual desires. What emerged from this was class-identified gentrification and fake sugar-coated democracy supporting a form of fake-individuality that created a class system based on the exploitation on just about everything.

  As time passed the existential stature of the state grew, while the existential stature of the individual remained the same. With the advent of mercantilism came a national economic policy designed to maximize exports and minimize imports, with the state taking a more adversarial role in all business arrangements. For the state to be greater than the sum of its parts meant exporting a greater quantity of its manufactured products to its trading partners while minimising the amount of goods they imported from them.

  To do this it was necessary to devise policies that aimed to reduce a possible current account deficit and achieve a current account surplus. Mercantilism introduced a national economic policy aimed at accumulating monetary reserves through a positive balance of trade, especially in finished goods…fine policies in theory, but when push came to shove in the competitive arena, greed inevitably exposed these polices to the raw ‘talents’ of people like Sheriff Trump and most of his contemporaries , who interpret business as dealership and mawkishly set out to wage economic warfare on all and sundry.

  The practice of sucking in wealth associated with the resources of Africa, India, the Americas, India and other Asian destinations was so successful that Britain…almost inadvertently…found itself in possession of an empire. It had reached a plateau where the sum was greater than its parts and to sustain its ‘sum-status’ meant creating an alliance of collusive narratives to justify its pre-eminence…and the best way to do so and retain control of the narrative was to resort to propaganda and trophy issues that would weaponize the emotions of the population. Hence the modern state found a way to prioritize itself at the expense of the individual. Over time, business cartels in tandem with the government would create ever more contextual paradigms for the individual to deal with.

  What was required to sustain the status quo was a narrative to make the people feel proud of the fact that they were part of a-top-dog-team in action. Once the authors of the narrative realized that propaganda, when coupled with patriotism, could produce adherents imbued with convictions that were inherent in the narrative, they realized that language itself could cement a profitable relationship between buyer and seller and public relations became a force unto itself.

  If you were part of the bourgeoisie who came into existence in the 19th centuries as a consequence of the wealth pouring into Europe and Britain from the colonial exploitation of Africa or India, Ireland, Asia etc. and your conscience was troubled by virtue of being party to a culture sliding grandiosely up its own existential arse, you could find balm within the isolated confines of the psychiatrist’s couch if your pockets were deep enough. If you were of a humble disposition, there was the pastor or the priest who could deal with your existential woes. If you made it to the 20th century you probably would have become so conditioned by events as to be unaware of other people’s suffering…and if you made it to the 21 century…perish the thought!

  It was in this phase of history that commerce cleverly entered the business of explaining the meaning of existence per educational fiat…for a price! Thereafter it would be secular experts who explained the meaning of life to anybody who could afford to pay for enlightenment while simultaneously repressing revolutionary instincts that could, in the first instance, allow the light of reason to filter through.

  With the crafting of the existential narrative, more and more people came to see themselves as parts in a new whole. Personal history became the curveball of the 20th century, promoting a vision of America as utopia on steroids, which in turn, produced a sky-is-the-limit kind of optimism. America had long taken over from where Britain had left off after experiencing a fin de siecle stampede through its pearly gates in the 19th century which eventually produced an adrenaline rush to end all adrenaline rushes by the time it put a man on the moon. The net result was that American industry became kingpin for a century which left it convinced of its own invincibility.

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  When did America start to believe that it had to possess the biggest nuclear arsenal for it to feel that ‘whole’ America had become greater than the sum of its rival’s parts? Which raises the question; given the way power is used by the modern democratic-capitalist state, is the American constitution merely an example of baggage retained for baggage sake? Is there anything beyond raw power that may define its essence? Does it have an essence, or is it merely guided by some dark light that emanates from a single word…’democracy’…that stands alone on the blank piece of paper that was placed in a bottle and cast upon the ocean with information that might help ‘the people’ fulfil their desires?

  Do the people not see that they need to be free from illusions that enfold them before they can revolutionize their system…and move on?

  The elites who control the narrative remain invisible, they are neither deep nor surface stakeholders, they simply control the money flow. They are the sum-total of the faceless state, protected by protocols, secret intelligence agencies and the reality of the military budget that is put in place to maintain top-dog status for the elites and the illusions that comfort the multifarious minions now quarantined in citizen- zones that continue to emasculate their revolutionary spirit.

  The current impeachment process in America best illustrates the sterility the population is immiserated in. They should be impeaching themselves (instead of looking for a scapegoat) for their inability to confront their own record. They seem unaware that they are party to a bloodbath that has devastated much of the Middle East and many other societies across the globe.

  Once again, Americans are involved in the early stages of an election that leaves the question of America’s foreign policy in the too hard basket. A charade that would make Machiavelli blush. But alas, when blush comes to shove, American might is a God given right and collateral damage is not something that would soon alter the tone of its pugnaciously thick-skinned approach to reality.

  Then there is ever more evidence of the schism that is corporate existentialism as opposed to individual existentialism. The former owning the right to squash the latter ever since Corporate America took the civil out of civilisation by assiduously seeking to remove voices/data/information/truth and honourable journalism from serving the public interest.

  To observe how Julian Assange, Chelsea Manning, Edward Snowden (also Daniel Ellsberg, Jeffrey Wigand, Thomas Andrew Drake and Frank Serpico) were treated for divulging the execrable crimes of the American state are odious to say the least. That so many Americans, in condoning “the whole is greater than the sum of its parts” mentality, and dismissive of the service their whistle-blowers are providing, is appalling. A new class of people have come into existence and they hate whistle-blowers because they speak truth to power…pity the millions of Americans who don’t think that way!

  And what does the MSM really think of all this? That the New York Times continues to readily publish Bibi Netanyahu’s blandishments concerning existential threats to Israel while ignoring the fact that Palestine have had their country invaded and countless Palestinians now live under appalling conditions where existential rights do not even apply to them. The hurt that is inflicted on Palestinians is akin to the hurt that can be extended to say, Julian Assange, because both insidiously demean the human spirit.

  These are actions that highlight the schism that exists between governance and the governed…existence of the state in relation to the existence of the individual…or any other agent in the individual legal zone we recognise as being separate from the privileged existential zone of governments that includes corporations who enjoy limited liability by virtue of their status in law. Existentialism, at the individual level, is a concept born of leisure (think affluence), but when dealing with fiscal reality, finds its sovereignty somewhat overshadowed by the external trappings of an existential system designed to keep the checks and balances that favour the imperial narrative.

  Six months ago when the US Government slammed Assange with 17 charges under The Espionage Act for publishing the Chelsea Manning Leaks, indications were that these actions were taken to stifle the existence of a precedent that challenged the rights of a government to suppress the existence of truth itself; eventually it became their right to gag the message and the messenger.

  The American police state is a multi-billion-dollar boondoggle meant to keep the property and the resources of the American people flowing into corrupt government agencies and their corporate partners. In its present incarnation, it unmistakably exists as a pariah whose insidious meddling in other people’s systems knows no limitations. It unrelentingly spews out lies at every opportunity which vaunt variations on a theme of America’s self-righteous greatness ad nauseam. Its porous foreign policy exists to suck-out the essence of vulnerable states that are exposed to the gravitation pull of weaponised systems such as Wall Street and The Pentagon.

  The systems that have weaponized American culture have spawned a host of ‘yes’ men and women…the MSM is aglow with them. The emotional and intellectual life of main street America is ominously self-righteous and defensive. To understand how reflexive American politics is, is to discover…by merely surfing channels…that the American public has become the meat in a political-duopoly sandwich.

  To listen to Elizabeth Warren expostulating on Bolivia attests to a form of political incest that bedevils America. The Massachusetts Senator wanted to air her foreign policy bona fides in an interview with a former Barack Obama administration apparatchik on the podcast “Pod Save America.”

  Warren praised Trump’s strategy of appointing the deflated Venezuela coup leader Juan Guaido as president and declared, “I support economic sanctions.” She also described the country’s democratically elected president Nicolas Maduro as a “dictator.” …although the interview was conducted back in February, video clips have recently resurfaced and gone viral on social media.

  Which brings me back to the observation that America’s mawkish culture is viral in ways that are mainly lethal for those it disapproves of. It behaves like a giant octopus forever extending its tentacles into places that it wishes to exploit or annihilate. And behold The American Posse has morphed into stealth forces that operate outside of international law, human decency or basic accountability. It abhors the idea that leaders like Nicolas Maduro could curb the extortionist practices of corporate America and set about eliminating poverty in his beloved Bolivia. Worst of all is the fact that the American public condones regime change and all the other rapacious practices it is known for.

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  Sadly, America has become like an illiterate robot in a mathematical minefield stomping and headbutting everyone and everything it perceives as a competitor while waving its nuclear missiles and pruning shears at spectres of the existential sub-particle kind that threaten to lead humanity in a direction where it might discover that dancing the socialist fandangle might be o.k. after all.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 11/30/2019 – 19:30

• The Fatal Flaw In A Perfect Energy Solution
  The Fatal Flaw In A Perfect Energy Solution

  Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

  More than thirty years ago a giant tower was built in Manzanares, Spain, to produce electricity in a way that at the time must have seen even more eccentric than it seems now, by harnessing the power of air movement. The Manzanares tower was, sadly, toppled by a storm. Decades ago, several other firms tried to replicate the idea, but none has succeeded. Why?

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  A simple idea

  The idea behind the so-called solar wind towers is pretty straightforward. The more popular version is the solar updraft tower, which works as follows:

  On the ground, around the hollow tower, there is a solar energy collector—a transparent surface suspended a little above ground—which heats the air underneath.

  As the air heats up, it is drawn into the tower, also called a solar chimney, since hot air is lighter than cold air. It enters the tower and moves up it to escape through the top. In the process, it activates a number of wind turbines located around the base of the tower. The main benefit over other renewable technologies? Doing away with the intermittency of PV solar, since the air beneath the collector could stay hot even when the sun is not shining.

  A more recent take on solar wind towers involved water as well. Dubbed the Solar Wind Downdraft Tower, this project first made headlines in 2014, but since then there have been few updates, and those have been far between. The latest was from last year, when the company behind it, Solar Wind Energy Tower, announced a letter of intent by an investment company to provide financing for the project. That financing was to come from investors that the company was yet to find.

  Here’s how the company describes the power generation process in the downdraft tower:

  “To start, a series of pumps deliver water to the Tower’s injection system at the top where a fine mist is cast across the entire opening. The water introduced by the injection system then evaporates and is absorbed by hot dry air which has been heated by the solar rays of the sun.

  As a result, the air becomes cooler, denser and heavier than the outside warmer air, and falls through the cylinder at speeds up to and in excess of 50 mph. This air is then diverted into wind tunnels surrounding the base of the Tower where turbines inside the tunnels power generators to produce electricity.”

  The tough reality

  There is normally one reason why otherwise promising—at least on the face of it—technologies never take off: cost. One solar tower executive said as much to National Geographic in 2014.

  “The capital costs are very high,” said Rudolf Bergermann, who is co-founder of Schlaich-Bergermann and Partner, a company specializing in updraft solar tower technology. In a paper on its project, SBP admitted that costs of solar towers are high, but said the electricity that they generate is cheaper than all comparable solar technology.

  The company also wrote, “However, the approaching shortfall of fuel reserves in combination with dramatically increasing demand will soon balance the cost difference of today and later even reverse it. We expect this ‘break-even-point’ already at a value of 60 to 80 $/barrel of crude oil.”

  Brent is currently trading around $60 a barrel today, but there is no news of solar towers getting built on any scale. Investors are still wary of pouring money into a concept that has not been proved despite the promising theory behind it. That’s especially true of the downdraft tower: it sounds like it will need to use substantial amounts of water and the company is not saying where this water will come from and how much it will add to the cost of the whole thing.

  Challenging the dominant tech

  The way things stand now in renewable energy, solar wind towers may never become part of the global energy mix. While the electricity they could generate may indeed be cheaper than comparable technology, the upfront costs and the stability problems related to the height of the tower, which is in direct proportion to its efficiency, are enough to doom this technology. But the final nails come from the competition.

  Solar and wind energy research has achieved impressive production cost reductions in the past decades when the technology has moved from an interesting alternative to power plants to a mainstream source of energy.

  Solar panels are today a lot cheaper than they were just fie years ago, and costs continue to fall. These will doubtlessly reach a bottom at some point, before low cost begins to compromise quality, but the cheaper PV tech becomes, the less competitive their alternatives get.

  Wind energy is also getting cheaper as towers become taller and turbines become more efficient at no additional cost.

  “Wind now supplies clean and efficient power to the equivalent of 32 million American homes, sustains 500 U.S. factories, and delivers more than one billion dollars a year in new revenue to rural communities and states,” the American Wind Energy Association said last month in a report that revealed the United States had more than 100 GW in wind capacity, most of it onshore.

  The creators of the solar wind downdraft tower compare their facility in terms of cost with a nuclear power plant. However, what they should compare it to are solar installations and wind farms. Some of these are already cheaper than fossil fuel-fired power plants. They are the reason such fascinating but expensive technology will likely never make it to the market, not cheap oil and gas.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 11/30/2019 – 18:30

  Tags

  Environment

  Technology Internet

  

• BET Founder Says 2020 Election Is "Trump's To Lose"
  BET Founder Says 2020 Election Is “Trump’s To Lose”

  Millions of Americans slept in on Friday morning after spending the early morning hours battling their way to the front of the line to take advantage of those sweet, sweet Black Friday deals.

  Meanwhile, CNBC interrupted its coverage of the holiday sales madness to bring Robert Johnson, the founder of BET, on for an interview with Hadley Gamble. Johnson is no stranger to CNBC: He appears every few months, usually to discuss how the mainstream media distorts minorities and their view of President Trump.

  Though he didn’t dwell on whether he voted for Trump, Johnson insisted that the media has the narrative wrong, and that plenty of minorities – the target audience for BET (Black Entertainment Television) – actually like Trump (despite the insistence of Wealthy White Liberals that he has no support among communities of color) because of the president’s abrasive style.

  “I think the president has always been in a position where it’s his to lose, based on the fact that he’s bringing a disruptive force into what would be considered political norms, whether it’s the way he conducts foreign policy, the way he takes on the government agencies and the way he takes on immigration – he brings his style. And a lot of people who voted for him like this style.”

  Looking ahead to the 2020 vote, Johnson warned the Dems who are still jousting for the nomination not to focus so much on Trump’s style (i.e. what he says and what he tweets) but instead to focus on his actual policy decisions (tax cuts for the wealthy, stepped-up deportations), which Johnson believes are far less popular.

  “What Democrats need to be careful about is to not focus on stylistic Trump, but to focus on substantive Trump,” Johnson said.

  But at the end of the day, Johnson wouldn’t be surprised to see Trump steamroll the Dems once again (though he lost the popular vote in 2016, he won the electoral college by a substantial margin) because Trump has a special ability to dominate a news cycle – something that no other politician can accomplish.

  These skills apparently take time to develop, since Trump has been working the media to his advantage since the late 1970s.

  Meanwhile, there’s one pitfall that Dems must avoid: Accusing Trump’s supporters of being racists and bigots.

  “His ability to dominate the news cycle and get the narrative going about what he said to me has sort of a double effect on the Democrats. First they get all agitated about what he said, then they extend that to the voters.”

  “What they’re doing is they simply adding to his support by saying ‘Trump is bad, and if you support Trump, then you’re bad’ – which is a really silly way to talk to the American people.”

  It might seem like common sense to the rest of us, but labeling nearly half the country as a bunch of evil nazi bigots is clearly not the best strategy for winning over the hearts and minds. Yet, that’s what many on the far-left flank of the Democratic Party would like to see happen.

  Watch a clip from the interview below:

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 11/30/2019 – 18:00

  Tags

  Politics

  

• HSBC Shifts Records To Blockchain To Track $20 Billion Of Assets
  HSBC Shifts Records To Blockchain To Track $20 Billion Of Assets

  Authored by Helen Partz via CoinTelegraph.com,

  British banking giant HSBC plans to move $20 billion worth of assets to Digital Vault, a new blockchain-based custody platform by March 2020. By deploying the platform, the global investment bank aims to digitize paper-based records of private placements in order to increase standardization and speed up processes in the growing industry, Reuters reports Nov. 27.

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  image courtesy of CoinTelegraph

  HSBC reportedly expects the global volumes of private placements to surge 60% from 2017 to hit $7.7 trillion by 2022. The bank could not estimate how much the platform will save for the company or its clients, Reuters states.

  HSBC to help investors track securities on private markets in real-time

  Specifically, the Digital Vault platform will purportedly allow investors to track securities bought on private markets in real-time.

  As private placements are usually conducted on paper, its processes are often associated with a lack of standardization, while access to documentation can be complicated and time-consuming. By deploying blockchain, the company hopes to reduce the time needed to make queries on holdings by investors.

  No major savings in the first 18 months

  While HSBC has not provided any estimations for the potential outcomes of adopting the platform, an independent blockchain expert suggested major savings would be unlikely during the first stages of the project.

  Windsor Holden, an independent consultant who tracks blockchain and cryptocurrencies, told Reuters that he does not expect to see savings from increased efficiency in the first year to 18 months.

  Private placement in the crypto and blockchain industries

  Private placements are funding rounds of securities which are sold not through a public offering, but through a private offering. Private placement is considered to be an option to an initial public offering for a company looking to raise capital for expansion.

  In July 2019, American digital asset management fund Grayscale Investments resumed private placement of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust shares, allowing investors to put money in Bitcoin (BTC) using a traditional investment structure. 

  The Trust private placement is offered on a periodic basis throughout the year to accredited investors for daily subscription. Previously, South Korea’s messaging app operator Kakao Corp. revealed its plans to offer a private placement to attract investors to develop their blockchain subsidiary.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 11/30/2019 – 17:30

  Tags

  Business Finance

  

• QE Or Not QE? Here Is The Market's Answer In One Simple Chart
  QE Or Not QE? Here Is The Market’s Answer In One Simple Chart

  After a month of constant verbal gymnastics by the Fed – and its army of sycophants who can’t think creatively or originally and merely parrot their echo chamber in hopes of a blue checkmark and likes/retweets – that the recent launch of $60 billion in T-Bill purchases is anything but QE (whatever you do, don’t call it “QE 4”, just call it “NOT QE” please), two weeks ago one bank finally had the guts to say what was so obvious to anyone who isn’t challenged by simple logic: the Fed’s “NOT QE” is really “QE.”

  As we reported on November 15, in a note warning that the Fed’s latest purchase program – whether one calls it QE, QE4, QE ∞ or NOT QE – will have big, potentially catastrophic costs, Bank of America’s Ralph Axel wrote that in the aftermath of the Fed’s new program of T-bill purchases to increase the amount of reserves in the banking system, the Fed made an effort to repeatedly inform markets that this is not a new round of quantitative easing, and yet as the BofA strategist notes, “in important ways it is similar.”

  But was it QE? Well, in his October FOMC press conference, Fed Chair Powell said “our T-bill purchases should not be confused with the large-scale asset purchase program that we deployed after the financial crisis. In contrast, purchasing Tbills should not materially affect demand and supply for longer-term securities or financial conditions more broadly.” Chair Powell also gave a succinct definition of QE as having two basic elements: (1) supporting longer-term security prices, and (2) easing financial conditions.

  Here’s the problem: as we have said since the beginning, and as Bank of America wrote, “the Fed’s T-bill purchase program delivers on both fronts and is therefore similar to QE,” with one exception – the element of forward guidance.

  The upshot to this attempt to mislead the market what it is doing according to Bank of America, is that:

  1. the Fed is continuing to “ease” even though rate cuts are now on hold, which is supportive of growth, higher interest rates and higher equities, and
  2. the Fed is loosening financial conditions by increasing the availability of, and lowering the cost of, leverage, which broadly supports asset prices potentially at the cost of increasing systemic financial risk.

  And while we have repeatedly argued why we think that, stripped of all its semantic veneer, the Fed’s latest asset purchase program is, in fact, QE, BofA effectively confirmed why we are right.

  Which brings up a tangential, if just as important question: Why is the Fed so concerned about not signaling QE, and why are so many Fed fanboys desperate to parrot whatever Powell is saying day after day? Simply said, there are several reasons why the Fed is making a great effort to let the world know that its security purchases are not QE and are not reflective of any change in monetary policy stance.

  The first is the obvious issue of signaling concern around the economic outlook which would run counter to its cautiously optimistic and often upbeat assessment. After all, why do QE if the economy has “never been stronger”, and the Fed was hiking rates as recently as a December. Included here are the concerns about running out of ammunition at the zero lower bound of rate policy. With negative rates increasingly off the table – until push comes to shove of course and the Fed is forced to join the ECB, BOJ and SNB in going subzero – QE is meant to be reserved as dry powder for a rainy day when conventional tools are exhausted (even if QE is in fact taking place this very instant).

  A less obvious concern for the Fed is connecting monetary policy to bank demand for Fed liabilities, which as BofA admits, “is not something that fits neatly within its dual mandate”: last January, the Fed made a “momentous decision” to run an “abundant reserve regime” also known as a floor system, where the central bank decided not to return to its pre-crisis days of zero excess reserves. As such, the central bank now views the proper level of excess reserves (a Fed balance sheet liability) not in terms of its dual mandate for inflation and employment, but in terms of how banks prefer to meet regulatory liquidity requirements and how this preference impacts repo and other markets.

  In short, the Fed’s dual mandate has been replaced by a single mandate of promoting financial stability (or as some may say, boosting JPMorgan’s stock price) similar to that of the ECB.

  Here BofA ominously added that “by deciding to dynamically assess bank demand for reserves and reduce the risk of air pockets in repo markets, we believe the Fed has entered unchartered territory of monetary policy that may stretch beyond its dual mandate.” And the punchline: “By running balance-sheet policy to ensure overnight funding markets remain flush, the Fed is arguably circumventing the most important brake on excess leverage: the price.“

  So if NOT QE is in fact, QE, and if the Fed is once again in the price manipulation business, what then?

  According to BofA’s Axel, the most worrying part of the Fed’s current asset purchase program is the realization that an ongoing bank footprint in repo markets is required to maintain control of policy rates in the new floor system, or as we put it less politely, banks are now able to hijack the financial system by indicating that they have an overnight funding problem (as JPMorgan very clearly did) and force the Fed to do their (really JPMorgan’s) bidding.

  While it is likely that beyond year-end, the additional tens of billions in reserves will have the required soothing effect, what is less clear is that the Fed can make sure the bank repo lending footprint is resilient to dips in the bank credit cycle.

  And this is where BofA’s warning hits a crescendo, because while repo is fully collateralized and therefore contains negligible counterparty credit risk, “there may be a situation in which banks want to deleverage quickly, for example during a money run or a liquidation in some market caused by a sudden reassessment of value as in 2008.”

  Got that? Going forward please refer to any market crash as a “sudden reassessment of value”, something which has become impossible in a world where “value” is whatever the Fed says it is… Well, the Fed or a bunch of self-serving venture capitalists, who pushed the “value” of WeWork to $47 billion just weeks before it was revealed that the company is effectively insolvent the punch bowl of endless free money is taken away.

  To Bank of America, this new monetary policy regime actually increases systemic financial risk by making repo markets more vulnerable to bank cycles. This, as the bank ominously warns, “increases interconnectedness, which is something regulators widely recognize as making asset bubbles and entity failures more dangerous.“

  Think of this as Europe’s infamous “doom loop”, only in the US and instead of linking bank equity values with the price of sovereign debt, it uses repo as a risk intermediary – one which is both used to grease the financial system, and which henceforth will also be an indicator of systemic bank stress.

  In short, not only is the Fed pursuing QE without calling it QE, but by doing so it is implicitly raising the odds – more so than if it simply did another QE and rebuilt reserves to abour $4.5 trillion or more by purchasing coupon bonds – of another market crash.

  It was, however, BofA’s conclusion that we found most alarming: as Axel writes, in his parting words:

  “some have argued, including former NY Fed President William Dudley, that the last financial crisis was in part fueled by the Fed’s reluctance to tighten financial conditions as housing markets showed early signs of froth. It seems the Fed’s abundant-reserve regime may carry a new set of risks by supporting increased interconnectedness and overly easy policy (expanding balance sheet during an economic expansion) to maintain funding conditions that may short-circuit the market’s ability to accurately price the supply and demand for leverage as asset prices rise.“

  In retrospect, we understand why the Fed is terrified of calling the latest QE by its true name: one mistake, and not only will it be the last QE the Fed will ever do, but it could also finally finish what the 2008 financial crisis failed to achieve, only this time the Fed will be powerless to do anything but sit and watch.

  All of this, and more, we discussed previously in “One Bank Finally Admits The Fed’s “NOT QE” Is Indeed QE… And Could Lead To Financial Collapse.”

  The reason we bring up this especially critical topic again today, is because we now have almost two full months of data since the start of NOT QE, which IS QE, and which conveniently gives us a snapshot of how the market – not we, not Bank of America, not pro or anti-Fed pundits – are responding to the expansion in the Fed’s balance sheet, which between repos, term repos, and permanent open market operations, has grown by $293 billion in just under the past three months.

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  The simple answer is the following: whether one wants to call it QE or not QE, ever since the Fed announced on Oct 11 that it would start purchasing $60 billion in T-Bills each month until “at least into the second quarter of 2020” – being careful to note that “these actions are purely technical measures to support the effective implementation of the FOMC’s monetary policy, and do not represent a change in the stance of monetary policy“, i.e., this is not QE, the Fed’s balance sheet has grown for 7 out of 8 weeks.

  The market’s response? Just like during the POMO days of QE1, QE2, Operation Twist, and QE3, stocks have risen on every single week when the Fed’s balance sheet increased, following the three weeks of declines that led to the October 11 announcement. What about the one week when the Fed’s balance sheet shrank? That was the only week in the past two months since the launch of “NOT QE” when the S&P dropped.

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  So while Fed watchers, pundits, strategists, rank amateurs and virtually anyone else can debate whether or not what the Fed is doing is or is not QE, the market has made up its mind: if the balance sheet is rising, so are stocks, and vice versa. And since only POMO matters – so to speak – as it did back in the days of QE1 through QE3, we will do what we did back then, and list a schedule of all the upcoming days in which the Fed conducts liquidity injections – regardless of how one wants to call them (the latest schedule can always be found on the following page).

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  One final point for all those who despite the above, will still claim that just because the Fed is not purchasing coupon Treasuries, and thus is not changing either the duration of securities in the open market or investor risk preference, it is not, not, not QE, here is a snippet of what JPMorgan’s Nikolaos Panagirtzoglou wrote in his latest Flows and Liquidity newsletter:

  … we see the Fed likely to conduct some of its balance sheet expansion next year via Treasuries.

  Translation: some time in 2020, the Fed will stop pretending it is “NOT” QE.

  Case closed.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 11/30/2019 – 17:00

  Tags

  Business Finance

  

• Only 3 Ways To Stop Trump 2020
  Only 3 Ways To Stop Trump 2020

  Authored by ‘Thaisleeze’ via The Burning Platform blog,

  Living on the opposite side of the world to the USA I am obliged to follow American politics as a stone thrown into the Washington swamp sends ripples that reach this far.

  With less than a year to go until the next presidential election it is time to assess the current political landscape.

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  Trump of course is the focus of massive media noise. This must be ignored if a rational analysis is to be produced. 2016 proved that opinion polls must also be ignored.

  As things stand today Trump holds the following chips in his stack:

  1. He is the incumbent

  2. The official employment numbers are in his favor

  3. The official economic numbers are in his favor

  4. His Republican approval is over 90%

  5. His Hispanic/black approval ratings are at record levels for a Republican

  6. He has made a dent in the illegal immigration problem

  7. He has not started any new wars

  8. Both Trump and the RNC are raking in record amounts of campaign cash

  9. He will have the vote of most people with a 401(k) account

  10. He will have the vote of most people in the military

  11. He is in control of the social media narrative

  12. He pushed the concept of the deep state and fake news into the mainstream

  13. Democrat controlled cities are clearly in serious decline

  14. He forced the DNC to defend their lunatic far left fringe and embrace their views

  15. He forced the Democrats into the farcical impeachment process

  16. The Democrats have little cash on hand

  17. The Democrats do not have a viable policy platform

  18. The Democrats do not currently have a viable contender for the nomination

  Probably the most important fact we have learned since the election of Trump is that the deep state does exist in America and that it is a massively powerful hand on the tiller of American policy.

  It has also become abundantly clear that this faction was strongly opposed to the policies Trump ran on in 2016 and that they have tried to impede him ever since he announced his candidacy. It is not unreasonable to conclude that this faction does not wish Trump to win re-election.

  The question then becomes how far are they prepared to go in stopping him.

  1. The most obvious way to stop Trump would be at the the ballot box. However, given the factors outlined above this is a long shot bet. None of the declared Democrat candidates can beat him. Hillary Clinton would fail again. A Republican cannot unseat him. Obama has been keeping a very low profile, it is possible that his wife Michelle could win, if she could be persuaded to run. Oprah?

  2. What would turn the world of Trump upside down would be a financial crisis of a similar magnitude to 2008, or a major dollar collapse (Putin said last week the dollar would collapse soon). If there were a consensus among the deep state to take such action it would be incredibly easy for them to achieve given the highly unstable fabric of markets today.

  The corporate credit markets could be pushed into panic by Jamie Dimon alone if he wished such an outcome and had the blessing of his buddies. Indeed, the cynic might argue that the groundwork has been laid since the start of the repo problem in mid September and the launching of QE4. Last time around the patsie was Lehman, has Deutsche Bank been singled out to take the fall this time? Time is running short for this to be an option, a crisis must be in play by spring next year to stymie the Orange Man.

  3. The third way Trump could be stopped does not bear thinking about but it happened before to JFK 56 years ago.

  Epstein did not kill himself.

  *  *  *

  The corrupt establishment will do anything to suppress sites like the Burning Platform from revealing the truth. The corporate media does this by demonetizing sites like mine by blackballing the site from advertising revenue. If you get value from this site, please keep it running with a donation. [Jim Quinn – PO Box 1520 Kulpsville, PA 19443] or Paypal

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 11/30/2019 – 16:30

  Tags

  Politics

  

• Newsweek Reporter Fired After Peddling Fake News That Trump Golfed On Thanksgiving
  Newsweek Reporter Fired After Peddling Fake News That Trump Golfed On Thanksgiving

  Newsweek has fired a reporter who penned a snarky, misleading article suggesting that President Trump spent Thanksgiving ‘tweeting and golfing,’ when he actually flew to Afghanistan for a surprise visit with US troops.

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  The fired journo, Jessica Kwong, wrote in an article entitled “How is Trump Spending Thanksgiving? Tweeting, Golfing and More,” that the president “has been spending his Thanksgiving holidays at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida.”

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  The golfing claim comes later in the article, as Kwong notes that Trump played golf on Thanksgiving Eve “from mid-morning to mid-afternoon.” The headline, of course, suggests Trump golfed on Thanksgiving.

  After Trump popped up in Afghanistan, Kwong and Newsweek took heat over Twitter for refusing to edit the article or delete the viral tweet promoting the lie.

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  This caught the attention of the Trump family, who promptly called out the beleaguered news outlet:

  I thought Newsweek was out of business? https://t.co/3ro4eSJloo

  — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 29, 2019

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Eventually, Kwong caved by deleting her tweet, and Newsweek edited the article – at first with no mention of the edit, and then an editors note only after virtually the entire piece had been rewritten.

  “This story has been substantially updated and edited at 6:17 pm EST to reflect the president’s surprise trip to Afghanistan. Additional reporting by James Crowley,” reads the update.

  “Newsweek investigated the failures that led to the publication of the inaccurate report that President Trump spent Thanksgiving tweeting and golfing rather than visiting troops in Afghanistan,” a Newsweek spokesperson told The New York Post in an email. “The story has been corrected and the journalist responsible has been terminated. We will continue to review our processes and, if required, take further action.”

  After Trump tweeted “I thought Newsweek was out of business?,” The Wrap reminds us that “The former owners of the publication and a faith-based online media company were accused of attempting to defraud lenders in an indictment filed in October 2018,” adding “High-ranking editorial staffers have been leaving the publication and three senior editorial staffers were fired in retaliation for a story about a legal investigation into the company in February 2018.”

  Not quite out of business, but certainly not in a position to afford further reputational risk from obvious fake news.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 11/30/2019 – 16:00

  Tags

  Business Finance

  

• Epstein Tapes? Sordid Case Takes A Bizarre Turn After Mystery 'Hacker' Emerges
  Epstein Tapes? Sordid Case Takes A Bizarre Turn After Mystery ‘Hacker’ Emerges

  Shortly after Jeffrey Epstein’s August death in a Manhattan detention facility, a shadowy figure claiming to have set up encrypted servers for the convicted sex offender told several attorneys and the New York Times he had a vast archive of incriminating evidence against powerful men stored on overseas servers, including several years worth of the financier’s communications and financial records which allegedly showed he had vast amounts of Bitcoin and cash in the Middle East and Bangkok, and hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of gold, silver and diamonds.

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  Going by the pseudonym Patrick Kessler, self-described ‘hacker’ said he had “thousands of hours of footage from hidden cameras” from Epstein’s multiple properties, which included former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak, lawyer Alan Dershowitz, and Prince Andrew, along with three billionaires and a prominent CEO, according to the Times.

  It has been long speculated that Epstein recorded his high-profile guests as part of an international blackmail operation.

  Armed with nothing more than blurry photos of what he claimed were high-profile individuals in compromising situations, Kessler approached lawyers representing several Epstein accusers,  John Pottinger and David Boies – the former of whom suggested that billionaire Sheldon Adelson – an ally of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – might pay for the alleged footage of Barak.

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  According to excerpts viewed by The Times, Mr. Pottinger and Kessler discussed a plan to disseminate some of the informant’s materials — starting with the supposed footage of Mr. Barak. The Israeli election was barely a week away, and Mr. Barak was challenging Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The purported images of Mr. Barak might be able to sway the election — and fetch a high price. –New York Times.

  After several weeks, the attorneys invited the New York Times to speak with Kessler in mid-September. Then things got even more unbelievable. Following a mid-September meeting with The Times in the Boies Schiller offices, Kessler went rogue – contacting the paper and accusing Boies and Pottinger of an extortion plot against the subjects of said tapes.

  Barely an hour after the session ended, the Times reporters received an email from Kessler: “Are you free?” He said he wanted to meet — alone. “Tell no one else.”

  …

  Kessler complained that Mr. Boies and Mr. Pottinger were more interested in making money than in exposing wrongdoers. He pulled out his phone, warned the reporters not to touch it, and showed more of what he had. There was a color photo of a bare-chested, gray-haired man with a slight smile. Kessler said it was a billionaire. He also showed blurry, black-and-white images of a dark-haired man receiving oral sex. He said it was a prominent C.E.O.

  “At one point, he showed what he said were classified C.I.A. documents,” writes the Times.

  Weeks after the meeting, the lawyers struck a deal with the Times during the last Friday in September. They would send a team overseas to download Kessler’s evidence from his servers (and had alerted the FBI and the US Attorney’s Office in Manhattan of their intention to do so), and would then share all the evidence with the paper on the condition that they would have discretion over which men could be written about, and when.

  Separately, Kessler had arranged to give the Times his evidence using a convoluted series of steps. On the day the data was to be transmitted, Kessler canceled at the 11th hour, claiming ‘a fire was burning’ and he had to flee to Ukraine. 

  In early October, Kessler said he was ready to produce the Epstein files. He told The Times that he had created duplicate versions of Mr. Epstein’s servers. He laid out detailed logistical plans for them to be shipped by boat to the United States and for one of his associates — a very short Icelandic man named Steven — to deliver them to The Times headquarters at 11 a.m. on Oct. 3.

  Kessler warned that he was erecting a maze of security systems. First, a Times employee would need to use a special thumb drive to access a proprietary communications system. Then Kessler’s colleague would transmit a code to decrypt the files. If his instructions weren’t followed precisely, Kessler said, the information would self-destruct.

  Specialists at The Times set up a number of “air-gapped” laptops — disconnected from the internet — in a windowless, padlocked meeting room. Reporters cleared their schedules to sift through thousands of hours of surveillance footage.

  On the morning of the scheduled delivery, Kessler sent a series of frantic texts. Disaster had struck. A fire was burning. The duplicate servers were destroyed. One of his team members was missing. He was fleeing to Kyiv.

  Except two hours later, Kessler contacted Pottinger and didn’t mention any emergency. Instead, he asked Pottinger to formulate two schemes for prying up to $1 billion from potential targets with the footage which the Times suggested may have been a trap.

  Pottinger obliged, describing two options for capitalizing on the evidence. The first, a “standard model” for legal settlements, would include splitting the money among Epstein’s victims, a charitable foundation, Kessler, and the lawyers – who would get up to 40%.

  In the second hypothetical, the lawyers would approached the high-profile men, convince them to hire them to ensure they wouldn’t get sued, and then “make a contribution to a nonprofit as part of their retainer.”

  Pottinger would effectively represent a victim, settle their case, and then represent the victim’s alleged abuser – a legal, yet morally questionable practice for an attorney to engage in.

  Dershowitz and the weird recorded phone call

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  In late September, Dershowitz’s secretary related a message that Kessler wanted to speak with him about Boies – with whom Dershowitz has a long-running feud. Dershowitz recorded the call, during which Kessler said he no longer trusted Boies and Pottinger.

  “The problem is that they don’t want to move forward with any of these people legally,” said Kessler, adding “They’re just interested in trying to settle and take a cut.”

  “Who are these people that you have on videotape?” Mr. Dershowitz asked.

  “There’s a lot of people,” Kessler said, naming a few powerful men. He added, “There’s a long list of people that they want me to have that I don’t have.”

  “Who?” Mr. Dershowitz asked. “Did they ask about me?”

  “Of course they asked about you. You know that, sir.”

  “And you don’t have anything on me, right?”

  “I do not, no,” Kessler said.

  “Because I never, I never had sex with anybody,” Mr. Dershowitz said. Later in the call, he added, “I am completely clean. I was at Jeffrey’s house. I stayed there. But I didn’t have any sex with anybody.”

  As the Times asks, “what was the purpose of Kessler’s phone call? Why did he tell Mr. Dershowitz that he wasn’t on the supposed surveillance tapes, contradicting what he had said and showed to Mr. Boies, Mr. Pottinger and The Times? Did the call sound a little rehearsed?”

  Dershowitz told the Times he has no idea why Kessler called him.

  Holding out hope

  In a November 7 email, Boies told the Times “I still believe he is what he purported to be,” adding “I have to evaluate people for my day job, and he seemed too genuine to be a fake, and I very much want him to be real.”

  That said, he also noted “I am not unconscious of the danger of wanting to believe something too much.”

  Ten days later, Mr. Boies arrived at The Times for an on-camera interview. It was a bright, chilly Sunday, and Mr. Boies had just flown in from Ecuador, where he said he was doing work for the finance ministry. Reporters wanted to ask him plainly if his and Mr. Pottinger’s conduct with Kessler crossed ethical lines.

  Would they have brokered secret settlements that buried evidence of wrongdoing? Did the notion of extracting huge sums from men in exchange for keeping sex tapes hidden meet the definition of extortion?

  Mr. Boies said the answer to both questions was no. He said he and Mr. Pottinger operated well within the law. They only intended to pursue legal action on behalf of their clients — in other words, that they were a long way from extortion. In any case, he said, he and Mr. Pottinger had never authenticated any of the imagery or identified any of the supposed victims, much less contacted any of the men on the “hot list.”

  When the Times showed Boies text exchanges between Kessler and Pottinger, he “showed a flash of anger and said it was the first time seeing them.” 

  Eventually, Boies concluded that Kessler was probably a con man.

  “I think that he was a fraudster who was just trying to set things up,” adding that he had probably baited Pottinger into writing things that were more nefarious than they really were.

  Pottinger, meanwhile, claims he was stringing Kessler along – “misleading him deliberately in order to get to the servers.”

  Despite Kessler’s story falling apart, the Times asks if his claims are plausible.

  Did America’s best-connected sexual predator accumulate incriminating videos of powerful men?

  Two women who spent time in Mr. Epstein’s homes said the answer was yes. In an unpublished memoir, Virginia Giuffre, who accused Mr. Epstein of making her a “sex slave,” wrote that she discovered a room in his New York mansion where monitors displayed real-time surveillance footage. And Maria Farmer, an artist who accused Mr. Epstein of sexually assaulting her when she worked for him in the 1990s, said that Mr. Epstein once walked her through the mansion, pointing out pin-sized cameras that he said were in every room.

  “I said, ‘Are you recording all this?’” Ms. Farmer said in an interview. “He said, ‘Yes. We keep it. We keep everything.’”

  During a 2005 search of Mr. Epstein’s Palm Beach, Fla., estate, the police found two cameras hidden in clocks — one in the garage and the other next to his desk, according to police reports. But no other cameras were found.

  So – it appears that Kessler was either a fraud or an operative, and the entire saga may have been designed to cast doubt over whether tapes actually exist. Or, Kessler is for real – and for some reason hasn’t found a way to release the videos. That said, since he says he’s not interested in extortion, what’s the hold-up?

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 11/30/2019 – 15:55

• Tulsi Gabbard: Wake Up And Smell Our $6.4 Trillion Wars
  Tulsi Gabbard: Wake Up And Smell Our $6.4 Trillion Wars

  Authored by Doug Bandow via TheAmericanConservative.com,

  Meanwhile, her fellow Democrats appear abysmally unconcerned about the human and financial toll…

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  The Democratic establishment is increasingly irritated.

  Representative Tulsi Gabbard, long-shot candidate for president, is attacking her own party for promoting the “deeply destructive” policy of “regime change wars.” Gabbard has even called Hillary Clinton “the queen of warmongers, embodiment of corruption, and personification of the rot that has sickened the Democratic Party.”

  Senator Chris Murphy complained:

  “It’s a little hard to figure out what itch she’s trying to scratch in the Democratic Party right now.”

  Some conservatives seem equally confused. The Washington Examiner’s Eddie Scarry asked:

  “where is Tulsi distinguishing herself when it really matters?”

  The answer is that foreign policy “really matters.”

  Gabbard recognizes that George W. Bush is not the only simpleton warmonger who’s plunged the nation into conflict, causing enormous harm. In the last Democratic presidential debate, she explained that the issue was “personal to me” since she’d “served in a medical unit where every single day, I saw the terribly high, human costs of war.” Compare her perspective to that of the ivory tower warriors of Right and Left, ever ready to send others off to fight not so grand crusades.

  The best estimate of the costs of the post-9/11 wars comes from the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University. The Institute says that $6.4 trillion will be spent through 2020. They estimate that our wars have killed 801,000 directly and resulted in a multiple of that number dead indirectly. More than 335,000 civilians have died—and that’s an extremely conservative guess. Some 21 million people have been forced from their homes. Yet the terrorism risk has only grown, with the U.S. military involved in counter-terrorism in 80 nations.

  Obviously, without American involvement there would still be conflicts. Some counter-terrorism activities would be necessary even if the U.S. was not constantly swatting geopolitical wasps’ nests. Nevertheless, it was Washington that started or joined these unnecessary wars (e.g., Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Yemen) and expanded necessary wars well beyond their legitimate purposes (Afghanistan). As a result, American policymakers bear responsibility for much of the carnage.

  The Department of Defense is responsible for close to half of the estimated expenditures. About $1.4 trillion goes to care for veterans. Homeland security and interest on security expenditures take roughly $1 trillion each. And $131 million goes to the State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development, which have overspent on projects that have delivered little.

  More than 7,000 American military personnel and nearly 8,000 American contractors have died. About 1,500 Western allied troops and 11,000 Syrians fighting ISIS have been killed. The Watson Institute figures that as many as 336,000 civilians have died, but that uses the very conservative numbers provided by the Iraq Body Count. The IBC counts 207,000 documented civilian deaths but admits that doubling the estimate would probably yield a more accurate figure. Two other respected surveys put the number of deaths in Iraq alone at nearly 700,000 and more than a million, though those figures have been contested.

  More than a thousand aid workers and journalists have died, as well as up to 260,000 opposition fighters. Iraq is the costliest conflict overall, with as many as 308,000 dead (or 515,000 from doubling the IBC count). Syria cost 180,000 lives, Afghanistan 157,000, Yemen 90,000, and Pakistan 66,000.

  Roughly 32,000 American military personnel have been wounded; some 300,000 suffer from PTSD or significant depression and even more have endured traumatic brain injuries. There are other human costs—4.5 million Iraqi refugees and millions more in other nations, as well as the destruction of Iraq’s indigenous Christian community and persecution of other religious minorities. There has been widespread rape and other sexual violence. Civilians, including children, suffer from PTSD.

  Even stopping the wars won’t end the costs. Explained Nita Crawford of Boston University and co-director of Brown’s Cost of War Project: “the total budgetary burden of the post-9/11 wars will continue to rise as the U.S. pays the on-going costs of veterans’ care and for interest no borrowing to pay for the wars.”

  People would continue to die. Unexploded shells and bombs still turn up in Europe from World Wars I and II. In Afghanistan, virtually the entire country is a battlefield, filled with landmines, shells, bombs, and improvised explosive devices. Between 2001 and 2018, 5,442 Afghans were killed and 14,693 were wounded from unexploded ordnance. Some of these explosives predate American involvement, but the U.S. has contributed plenty over the last 18 years.

  Moreover, the number of indirect deaths often exceeds battle-related casualties. Journalist and activist David Swanson noted an “estimate that to 480,000 direct deaths in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan, one must add at least one million deaths in those countries indirectly caused by the recent and ongoing wars. This is because the wars have caused illnesses, injuries, malnutrition, homelessness, poverty, lack of social support, lack of healthcare, trauma, depression, suicide, refugee crises, disease epidemics, the poisoning of the environment, and the spread of small-scale violence.” Consider Yemen, ravaged by famine and cholera. Most civilian casualties have resulted not from Saudi and Emirati bombing, but from the consequences of the bombing.

  Only a naif would imagine that these wars will disappear absent a dramatic change in national leadership. Wrote Crawford:

  “The mission of the post-9/11 wars, as originally defined, was to defend the United States against future terrorist threats from al-Qaeda and affiliated organizations. Since 2001, the wars have expanded from the fighting in Afghanistan, to wars and smaller operations elsewhere, in more than 80 countries—becoming a truly ‘global war on terror’.”

  Yet every expansion of conflict makes the American homeland more, not less, vulnerable. Contrary to the nonsensical claim that if we don’t occupy Afghanistan forever and overthrow Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, al-Qaeda and ISIS will turn Chicago and Omaha into terrorist abattoirs, intervening in more conflicts and killing more foreigners creates additional terrorists at home and abroad. In this regard, drone campaigns are little better than invasions and occupations.

  For instance, when questioned by the presiding judge in his trial, the failed 2010 Times Square bomber, Faisal Shahzad, a U.S. citizen, cited the drone campaign in Pakistan. His colloquy with the judge was striking: “I’m going to plead guilty 100 times forward because until the hour the U.S. pulls its forces from Iraq and Afghanistan and stops the drone strikes in Somalia and Yemen and in Pakistan and stops the occupation of Muslim lands and stops Somalia and Yemen and in Pakistan, and stops the occupation of Muslim lands, and stops killing the Muslims.”

  Ajani Marwat, with the New York City Police Department’s intelligence division, outlined Shahzad’s perspective to The Guardian:

  “’It’s American policies in his country.’ …’We don’t have to do anything to attract them,’ a terrorist organizer in Lahore told me. ‘The Americans and the Pakistani government do our work for us. With the drone attacks targeting the innocents who live in Waziristan and the media broadcasting this news all the time, the sympathies of most of the nation are always with us. Then it’s simply a case of converting these sentiments into action’.”

  Washington does make an effort to avoid civilian casualties, but war will never be pristine. Combatting insurgencies inevitably harms innocents. Air and drone strikes rely on often unreliable informants. The U.S. employs “signature” strikes based on supposedly suspicious behavior. And America’s allies, most notably the Saudis and Emiratis—supplied, armed, guided, and until recently refueled by Washington—make little if any effort to avoid killing noncombatants and destroying civilian infrastructure.

  Thus will the cycle of terrorism and war continue. Yet which leading Democrats have expressed concern? Most complain that President Donald Trump is negotiating with North Korea, leaving Syria, and reducing force levels in Afghanistan. Congressional Democrats care about Yemen only because it has become Trump’s war; there were few complaints under President Barack Obama.

  What has Washington achieved after years of combat? Even the capitals of its client states are unsafe. The State Department warns travelers to Iraq that kidnapping is a risk and urges businessmen to hire private security. In Kabul, embassy officials now travel to the airport via helicopter rather than car.

  Tulsi Gabbard is talking about what really matters. The bipartisan War Party has done its best to wreck America and plenty of other nations too. Gabbard is courageously challenging the Democrats in this coalition, who have become complicit in Washington’s criminal wars.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 11/30/2019 – 15:30

  Tags

  Politics

  War Conflict

  

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• The Rush To A Cashless Society Only Serves Globalist Interests
  The Rush To A Cashless Society Only Serves Globalist Interests

  Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

  A fundamental pillar of true free markets is the existence of choice; the availability of options from production to providers to purchase mechanisms without interference from governments or corporate monopolies. Choice means competition, and competition drives progress. Choice can also drive changes within society, for if people know a better or more secure way of doing things exists, why would anyone want to stay trapped within the confines of a limited system? At the very least, people should be allowed to choose economic mechanisms that work best for their particular situation.

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  This is NOT how our society functions today, and free market do not exist anywhere in modern nations including the US. Whenever I hear someone (usually a socialist) blame free market “capitalism” for the oppressive ailments of the world, I have to laugh. The alliance between governments and corporate monopolies (what Mussolini called national socialism or fascism) makes free markets utterly impossible. What we have today is an amalgamation of socialist economic interference and corporatocracy. Our system is highly restrictive and micro-managed for everyone except the money elites, who do not have to follow the same rules the rest of us do.

  Of course, I might be preaching to the choir when it comes to these issues. But, there are some underlying developments being pushed forward by globalists hell-bent on a one world monetary system and a one world government that even many liberty activists are not fully aware of.

  In alternative economic circles, the US dollar is seen as the end-all-be-all of fiat currency dominance. Many activists see it as the key to the power of the global elites and they think the Federal Reserve is the top of the globalist pyramid. This is not exactly true.

  The US dollar is itself just another tool of the banking cabal, and tools sometimes lose their usefulness over time. While it could be said that for the past several decades the dollar as the world reserve currency was the core of globalist influence, this is about to change and we can see the signs today. The rush towards a cashless society in the past few years is startling and unfortunately too many liberty activists have been suckered into thinking that it’s is a good thing.

  There are a number of reasons for this. As mentioned above, activists see the dollar (or Fed note) as fuel for the globalist machine, and so obviously they would like to see it go down in flames. They also are generally proponents of free markets, and the exploding trend of cryptocurrencies has given them the illusion that “choice” is returning to economy through “monetary competition”. I understand the basis for this attitude, and I appreciate where it’s coming from. I also have never been a proponent of the dollar or any other central bank fiat system. This article should not be misinterpreted as a defense of dollar hegemony.

  That said, there is a much bigger agenda at play here, and the dollar is only one fading part of it as it is being quietly replaced by a completely digital framework. We have to once again ask ourselves – Who really benefits from a sudden shift in the economic and monetary world? Who gains political and social power through a cashless society? Is it the public? Or, is it the same banking elites and globalists that have always held sway over our economic structure?

  In 2017 I published an article called ‘The Globalist One World Currency Will Look A Lot Like Bitcoin’. In it, I warned that the trendy marketing of cryptocurrencies to the general public by the mainstream media was extremely suspicious and contrary to the notion that the establishment was “terrified” of Bitcoin or blockchain tech putting them out of business. I also warned of the deep involvement of international banks like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan in the progress of blockchain infrastructure and more specifically Goldman Sachs and the IMF’s love affair with digital monetary systems. Goldman Sachs even referred to the blockchain as “the new technology of trust…”

  Clearly, the banking elites are not worried about this technology. In fact, they have been investing in it heavily. But why?  I have long held that current popular cryptocurrencies are nothing more than a beta test for a global digital currency system controlled by the elites.

  This is not to say that many people are familiar with using Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies. In fact, only a tiny percentage of the population ever comes into contact with or trades crypto. What I am saying is, the terminology, the idea of cryptocurrencies, is now widespread.

  Thanks to a vast amount of media attention, Bitcoin is a household brand even though most people have never owned a bitcoin (or a portion of a bitcoin). Whale investors have hyperinflated the price of Bitcoin and certain other coins to levels beyond all reason as demand by the investment world and average people for the mechanism is minimal at best. These price explosions, though brief, have spurred public curiosity. And, in the minds of many if something is considered valuable, no matter how ethereal or arbitrary the measure, there must be a reason…right? Therefore, in the minds of bitcoin cheerleaders high market prices prove by default that Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are necessary and desirable and anyone who is critical or skeptical is merely “upset” that they “missed out on the opportunity”.

  I have always said when asked about my position on Bitcoin and crypto that if you want to try to make money on one of these coins and think you can play the market, then by all means, the more power to you. But, for those who thought that cryptocurrencies are a tool for activism and fighting the central banks, all I can say is you have been duped.

  Over the course of a decade, the masses have been acclimated to the idea of a digital currency system. They are now being acclimated to the idea that physical currencies should be done away with and replaced with the “more efficient” blockchain tech – Death to the dollar, death to the Fed and death to the globalists say activists as they cheer for the new digital landscape! But this is not what is really happening. The death of the dollar and physical cash is only the primer for a new and even more invasive world order.

  In the past two years the agenda for a cashless system and a one world currency has gone mainstream. The plans that liberty analysts were once called “conspiracy theorists” for talking about ten years ago are now out in the open. The latest barrage of propaganda was launched by the governor of the Bank Of England, Mark Carney, who openly warned of the end of the dollar’s world reserve status, comparing it to the end of the Pound Sterling’s reserve status after WWII. He also noted that the dollar could be replaced by a new digital currency system and that this would be advantageous the banking system.

  This piggybacks on comments made by globalist and PIMCO CEO Mohamed El-Erian in 2017, who stated in an op-ed that the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights basket system could be used to replace the dollar as world reserve and that this would help to “fight the rise of populism”.

  Next, Facebook introduced the concept of the “Libra” digital currency, which Mark Carney also suggested central banks would be watching closely. Libra, in my view, is a test designed to lure wider public into using digital currency on a regular basis. As noted, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies gained exposure but not preference. Where they failed to infiltrate the daily trade of the average citizen, Libra could eventually succeed.

  So far I think the reaction is not what the globalists hoped for. Instead, Facebook is taking it slowly by introducing a new internal payment system called “Facebook Pay” similar to Paypal. Libra, or something like it, will likely make a reappearance in the next couple of years on Facebook and on other platforms.

  Next, former ECB chief Jean-Claude Trichet argued in favor of a digital version of the SDR basket system at the Caixin conference in Beijing, arguing that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were not stable enough or “legitimate” enough to take on the role of central bank currencies. Many argue that this is proof that the globalists are afraid of cryptocurrencies. On the contrary, I see this as yet another example of the ongoing fake battle between bankers and crypto. They criticize certain aspects of the technology while at the same time investing in it and promoting it. Like the false left/right paradigm, there is a kind of false central bank/crypto paradigm as well.

  Trichet’s argument for an IMF dominated crytpocurrency was surely welcomed in Beijing, where the Chinese have long supported the proliferation of the SDR and have called for the SDR to replace the dollar. The Chinese are not the only one’s. The Russian government has also called for the IMF to take over the global monetary system with the SDR basket.  Russia has all but decoupled from the dollar, dumping it’s US treasury holding, stockpiling a large supply of gold and removing the dollar in bilateral trade agreements with other nations.

  Last year Europe began establishing a new alternative to the US controlled SWIFT payment system. Germany in particular criticized the US system as a geopolitical weapon. Now, an association of major banks in Germany and in the EU is calling for a digital Euro based on the blockchain ledger.

  The IMF has been openly publishing white papers that agree with the assessment that a global digital currency is needed, and with former IMF head Christine Lagarde now in charge at the ECB, it is likely that a Euro cryptocurrency system will soon make a public appearance.

  In the meantime, multiple central banks are pursuing a cashless system and digital currencies of their own. China has announced a national digital currency system will be realized in the next 18 months. The Swiss central bank is exploring digital currency options, and Russia is considering launching a cryptocurrency as well.

  The rhetoric coming from the mainstream media and the banking establishment is that physical methods of payment will soon disappear. This is being called the “democratization of money”, and the “multipolar world order”; I’m sorry to say that it’s the exact opposite.

  The claim is that the end of cash and specifically the end of the dollar will result in more choice in the monetary world. But the end of physical cash is actually a removal of choice and the result is MORE centralization. The banking elites are so excited about the digital currency model because it removes all privacy from trade. As I have outlined in past articles, cryptocurrency and blockchain tech have no anonymity whatsoever despite claims originally circulated by proponents and cypto-activists. It is also clear that central banks intend to introduce their own highly managed currencies and most other coins will be buried in the process.

  The multipolar and multilateral world order memes are also a fraud. China, Russia, Europe and other nations are demanding an alternative to the dollar, but if that alternative ends up being a digitized version of the SDR basket under the IMF’s control as these countries have suggested, then this means total global centralization, NOT decentralization.

  Real decentralization would mean the removal of bureaucratic oversight and micromanagement. It would mean that physical currencies backed by gold and silver could be offered as an alternative option, not just cryptocurrencies or fiat backed by nothing. After all, gold and silver have far more individual investors worldwide than cryptocurrencies do. How about some real competition instead of price suppression of metals by the likes of JP Morgan?

  It would mean localized currencies and payment systems backed by hard commodities, not one worldwide currency and payment system backed by nothing. It would mean nations breaking from dependence not just on the dollar, but also breaking from globalist institutions like the IMF, BIS and World Bank. The globalists are attempting to sell us on slavery by packaging it as “free markets”. The solution is to not use the systems they promote and be ready to fight tooth and nail for real decentralization.

  *  *  *

  If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch.  Learn more about it HERE.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 11/29/2019 – 23:30

  Tags

  Business Finance

  

• 673 Million People Still Defecate Outdoors (Not Just In San Francisco)
  673 Million People Still Defecate Outdoors (Not Just In San Francisco)

  With World Toilet Day having just passed, the United Nations released a report focusing on water, sanitation and hygiene around the world. It has found that approximately 2.2 billion people worldwide lack access to safe drinking water, 4.2 billion have to go without safe sanitation services and three billion lack basic handwashing facilities.

  Additionally, as Statista’s Niall McCarthy notes, the report also examined the state of open defecation and progress in eliminating it. As recently as 2015, close to a billion people were still defecating outdoors, resulting in widespread disease and millions of deaths. That drove the UN to call for an end to the practice and some parts of the world have proven hugely successful in eradicating it.

  In 2000 for example, the rate of open defecation was even worse with 21 percent of the global population – 1.3 billion people – practicing it.

  The impact of the UN’s call to action has been telling and by 2017, the global share of people practicing open defecation had fallen to just 9 percent – 673 million people.

  Ethiopia saw the largest fall during that period, -57 percent. Cambodia and India also experienced declines of -53 and -47 percent respectively. The latter has been particularly ambitious in installing proper toilets. Before Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power, just under 40 percent of India’s population had access to a household toilet. He promised to change that and billions of dollars were invested under the Swachh Bharat Abhiyan (“Clean India”) campaign which kicked off in October 2014. India’s Ministry of Drinking Water and Sanitation states that toilet coverage today stands at an impressive 99.22 percent.

  Altogether, 91 countries reduced open defecation by a combined total of 696 million people between 2000 and and 2017 with Central and Southern Asia accounting for three quarters of that figure.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  The news isn’t positive everywhere though and 39 countries experienced increases during the same period, totaling 49 million people. The majority of that increase occurred in Sub-Sahara Africa which has experienced steady population growth since 2000. That of course means that there’s still a lot of work to do but as India has shown with its toilet building marathon, progress can be rapid.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 11/29/2019 – 23:00

• Henry Kissinger Gets It… US "Exceptionalism" Is Over
  Henry Kissinger Gets It… US "Exceptionalism" Is Over

  Via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

  Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger made prudent remarks recently when he said the United States is no longer a uni-power and that it must recognize the reality of China as an equal rival.

  The furor over a new law passed by the US this week regarding Hong Kong and undermining Beijing’s authority underlines Kissinger’s warning.

  If the US cannot find some modus vivendi with China, then the outcome could be a catastrophic conflict worst than any previous world war, he admonished.

  Speaking publicly in New York on November 14, the veteran diplomat urged the US and China to resolve their ongoing economic tensions cooperatively and mutually, adding:

  “It is no longer possible to think that one side can dominate the other.”

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  A key remark made by Kissinger was the following:

  “So those countries that used to be exceptional and used to be unique, have to get used to the fact that they have a rival.”

  In other words, he is negating the erroneous consensus held in Washington which asserts that the US is somehow “exceptional”, a “uni-power” and the “indispensable nation”. This consensus has grown since the early 1990s after the collapse of the Soviet Union, when the US viewed itself as the sole super-power. That morphed into a more virulent ideology of “full-spectrum dominance”. Thence, the past three decades of unrelenting US criminal wars and regime-change operations across the planet, throwing the whole world into chaos.

  Kissinger’s frank assessment is a breath of fresh air amid the stale and impossibly arrogant self-regard held by too many American politicians who view their nation as an unparalleled power which brooks no other.

  The seasoned statesman, who is 96-years-old and retains an admirable acumen for international politics, ended his remarks on an optimistic note by saying: “I am confident the leaders on both sides [US and China] will realize the future of the world depends on the two sides working out solutions and managing the inevitable difficulties.”

  Aptly, Kissinger’s caution about danger of conflict was reiterated separately by veteran journalist John Pilger, who warned in an exclusive interview for Strategic Culture Foundation this week that, presumed “American exceptionalism is driving the world to war.”

  Henry Kissinger is indeed a controversial figure. Many US scholars regard him as one of the most outstanding Secretaries of State during the post-Second World War period. He served in the Nixon and Ford administrations during the 1970s and went on to write tomes about geopolitics and international relations. Against that, his reputation was badly tarnished by the US war in Vietnam and the horrendous civilian death toll from relentless aerial bombing across Indochina, believed to have been countenanced by Kissinger.

  Kissinger has also been accused of supporting the military coup in Chile in 1973 against elected President Allende, and for backing the dirty war by Argentina’s fascist generals during the 1970s against workers and leftists.

  To his credit, however, Kissinger was and is a practitioner of “realpolitik” which views international relations through a pragmatic lens. Another realpolitik US state planner was the late Zbigniew Brzezinski, who died in 2017 at the age of 89. Both advocated a policy of detente with the Soviet Union and China.

  President Richard Nixon’s groundbreaking visit to China in 1972 is credited to the advice given by Kissinger who was then National Security Advisor to the White House.

  That same year, the US and the Soviet Union signed the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty, also under the guidance of Kissinger on the American side. The US would later withdrew from the treaty in 2002, a move which has presaged a long deterioration in bilateral relations between the US and Russia to the present day.

  For all their faults, at least people like Kissinger and Brzezinski were motivated by practical goal-orientated policy. They were willing to engage with adversaries to find some modus vivendi. Such an attitude is too often missing in recent Washington administrations which seem to be guided by an ideology of unipolar dominance by the US over the rest of the world. The current Washington consensus is one of hyper-ideological unrealism and hubris, which leads to a zero-sum mentality of antagonism towards China and Russia.

  At times, President Donald Trump appears to subscribe to realpolitik pragmatism. At other times, he swings to the hyper-ideological mentality as expressed by his Vice President Mike Pence, as well as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Secretary of Defense Mike Esper. The latter has labeled China as the US’s “greatest long-term threat”.

  This week President Trump signed into law “The Human Rights and Democracy Bill”, which will impose sanctions on China over alleged repression in its Hong Kong territory. Beijing has reacted furiously to the legislation, condemning it as a violation of its sovereignty.

  This is exactly the kind of baleful move that Kissinger warned against in order to avoid a further poisoning in bilateral relations already tense from the past 16 months of US-China trade war.

  One discerns the difference between Kissinger and more recent US politicians: the former has copious historical knowledge and appreciation of other cultures. His shrewd, wily, maybe even Machiavellian streak, informs Kissinger to acknowledge and respect other powers in a complex world. That is contrasted with the puritanical banality and ignorance manifest in Trump’s administration and in the Congress.

  Greeting Kissinger last Friday, November 22, during a visit to Beijing, President Xi Jinping thanked him for his historic contribution in normalizing US-China relations during 1970s.

  “At present, Sino-US relations are at a critical juncture facing some difficulties and challenges,” said Xi, calling on the two countries to deepen communication on strategic issues. It was an echo of the realpolitik views Kissinger had enunciated the week before.

  While sharing a public stage with Kissinger, the Chinese leader added:

  “The two sides should proceed from the fundamental interests of the two peoples and the people of the world, respect each other, seek common ground while reserving differences, pursue win-win results in cooperation, and promote bilateral ties to develop in the right direction.”

  Likewise, China and Russia have continually urged for a multipolar world order for cooperation and partnership in development. But the present and recent US governments refuse to contemplate any other order other than a presumed unipolar dominance. Hence the ongoing US trade strife with China and Washington’s relentless demonization of Russia.

  This “exceptional” ideological mantra of the US is leading to more tensions, and ultimately is a path to the abyss.

  Henry Kissinger gets it. It’s a pity America’s present crop of politicians and thinkers are so impoverished in their intellect.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 11/29/2019 – 22:30

  Tags

  Politics

  

• Virginia Gun Owners Could Face Felony Charges Under New 'Paramilitary Activities' Amendment
  Virginia Gun Owners Could Face Felony Charges Under New 'Paramilitary Activities' Amendment

  A proposed amendment to a 30-year-old Virginia law would make it illegal to bring a firearm to any gathering if it can be proven that the goal was to ‘intimidate any person or group of persons by drilling, parading, or marching with any firearm.”

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  In short, if someone brings a firearm to a permitted event such as the ill-fated United the Right rally, and it can be argued that their goal was to intimidate Antifa counter-protesters as opposed to carrying in self-defense, that person could be subject to Class 5 felony charges under the amendment introduced by State Senator Louise Lucas (D-18th District).

  The amendment stems from a lawsuit brought against Unite the Right organizer (and professional provocateur) Jason Kessler and several militia groups, accusing them of violating the state’s existing statute governing “unlawful paramilitary activity.” As a result of the lawsuit, “eleven named defendants had signed consent decrees in which they are “permanently enjoined from returning to Charlottesville, Virginia, as part of a unit of two or more persons acting in concert while armed with a firearm, weapon, shield, or any item whose purpose is to inflict bodily harm, at any demonstration, rally, protest, or march.”,” according to IREHR.

  Of note, the statute does not declare tactical training illegal as has been reported elsewhere, as the existing law – which has been on the books more than 30 years – already makes it illegal if someone “teaches or demonstrates to any other person the use, application, or making of any firearm, explosive, or incendiary device” if said training “will be employed for use in, or in furtherance of, a civil disorder.“

  Given that most firearms instruction is intended for self-defense in all situations and not specifically during “civil disorder,” we don’t envision Virginia authorities barging in on training courses anytime soon.

  The amendment can be seen below. New portions are italicized.

  SENATE BILL NO. 64

  Offered January 8, 2020

  Prefiled November 21, 2019

  A BILL to amend and reenact §18.2-433.2 of the Code of Virginia, relating to paramilitary activities; penalty.

  ———-

  Patron– Lucas

  ———-

  Referred to Committee for Courts of Justice

  ———-

  Be it enacted by the General Assembly of Virginia:

  1. That §18.2-433.2 of the Code of Virginia is amended and reenacted as follows:

  §18.2-433.2. Paramilitary activity prohibited; penalty.

  A person shall be is guilty of unlawful paramilitary activity, punishable as a Class 5 felony if he:

  1. Teaches or demonstrates to any other person the use, application, or making of any firearm, explosive, or incendiary device, or technique capable of causing injury or death to persons, knowing or having reason to know or intending that such training will be employed for use in, or in furtherance of, a civil disorder; or

  2. Assembles with one or more persons for the purpose of training with, practicing with, or being instructed in the use of any firearm, explosive, or incendiary device, or technique capable of causing injury or death to persons, intending to employ such training for use in, or in furtherance of, a civil disorder; or

  3. Assembles with one or more persons with the intent of intimidating any person or group of persons by drilling, parading, or marching with any firearm, any explosive or incendiary device, or any components or combination thereof.

  2. That the provisions of this act may result in a net increase in periods of imprisonment or commitment. Pursuant to §30-19.1:4 of the Code of Virginia, the estimated amount of the necessary appropriation cannot be determined for periods of imprisonment in state adult correctional facilities; therefore, Chapter 854 of the Acts of Assembly of 2019 requires the Virginia Criminal Sentencing Commission to assign a minimum fiscal impact of $50,000. Pursuant to §30-19.1:4 of the Code of Virginia, the estimated amount of the necessary appropriation cannot be determined for periods of commitment to the custody of the Department of Juvenile Justice.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 11/29/2019 – 22:00

  Tags

  War Conflict

  Law Crime

  

• Some Countries Are Just Prone To Scientific Fraud. So Are Their Immigrants To The West
  Some Countries Are Just Prone To Scientific Fraud. So Are Their Immigrants To The West

  Authored by ‘Lance Welton’ via VDare.com,

  Scientific fraud – falsifying scientific data or manipulating the scientific evaluation process – has become a serious problem. At best, it is a threat to public confidence in science. At worst, if the fraud is not revealed, then public policy could be shaped by bogus data. This problem is universal. But there are distinct national patterns. In particular, fraud is endemic in non-Western countries—and among non-Western scientists who immigrate here.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  The most infamous scientific fraudster of recent years did come from the West: the Dutch social psychologist Diederik Stapel. At the time of writing, he has had to retract 58 scientific articles in which he made up or manipulated his data. Significantly, many of these were politically useful from a Leftist perspective, such as the claim that a dirty, untidy environment made people more racist or that people who eat meat are more selfish than vegetarians. [RETRACTED ARTICLE. Coping with chaos: how disordered contexts promote stereotyping and discrimination, By D. Stapel & S. Lindenberg, Science, 2011]

  Clearly, any sensible scholar is going to be very cautious about citing anything ever written by Diederik Stapel, even if it has not been retracted. Indeed, lay readers should be careful to ask for the author of any Leftism-helpful social psychology finding, when told about it by acquaintances, lest its author turn out to be Diederik Stapel.

  But—breaking news—microbiologist Elizabeth Bik just went public alleging astonishingly massive scientific fraud, between 2004 and 2019, among academics at Annamalai University in Tamil Nadu in India. This may lead to the retraction of up to 200 papers by microbiologists at the university.[ Research fraud in over 200 Annamalai University papers, alleges US scholar,  by Megha Kaveri,The News Minute, November 15, 2019]

  And this is much more typical. Scientists from some countries are systematically more inclined to make up data or corrupt the peer-review process, than are scientists from others.

  In the peer-review process, an academic journal sends a study out to other academics for scholarly evaluation. Many scientists research extremely narrow fields, meaning there are very few people in the world who are qualified to judge the merits of their studies. Consequently, when scientists submit an article to a journal, they are often asked to nominate potential peer-reviewers, and also to provide their email addresses.

  A conscientious editor would check who these nominees were and make an informed choice as to whether they were suitable reviewers. But apparently many editors, even of prestigious journals, do not practice due diligence.

  Corrupt researchers realize this. Accordingly, they invent a couple of fictitious researchers and provide emails to which they—the study’s authors—have access. Sometimes they give real researchers’ names, but create a new email, bogus addresses for them. They are then able to peer-review their own papers and recommend that they be accepted.  Journal editors have gradually got wise to this ruse and are able to see that the that IP address of the author and reviewer are the same, leading to the corrupt scientist being caught out.

  There are clear national differences in this practice. The world leader: China. Between 2012 and 2016, 276 studies by Chinese academics were retracted for fake peer review. In a distant second place was Taiwan, with 73, followed by Iran, with 65, South Korea, 33, Pakistan, 19, and India, 16. [The Economy of Fraud in Academic Publishing in China, by Mini Gu, WENR, April 3, 2019].

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  In terms of fake peer review per head of population, these figures suggest that the most corrupt country, by far, is Taiwan (population 23 million) then Iran, then South Korea.

  In other words, you should be generally cautious about trusting the accuracy of scientific papers authored by scholars from these countries.

  Author Mini Gu notes some systemic factors behind this corruption. In much of Northeast Asia, as well as in the developing world, many scientists are, in effect, “on commission.” If they land an article in a high-impact academic journal, then they get paid much more than if it is published in a less prestigious journal. Without publishing these articles their salaries are extremely low. Not only are they paid “by result,” but they also paid “per article,” naturally pushing them towards quantity over quality.

  Even Western academics must publish a certain number of articles every few years for their contracts to be renewed. But the pressure here is extreme.  We can understand how corruption will result. It ranges from self-plagiarism—presenting, essentially, the same paper as though it were two different ones—to the much more serious issue of simply making data up.

  A useful leader board on the latter is maintained by the website Retraction Watch . It lists the 32 scientists who have had to retract the most papers for scientific fraud of various kinds. Being slightly woke itself, Retraction Watch gloats that “We note that all but one of the top 32 are men, which agrees with the general findings of a 2013 paper suggesting that men are more likely to have papers retracted for fraud.” But, needless to say, it doesn’t say anything about the national origins of its top 32 most prolific retractors.

  1. Yoshitaka Fujii (total retractions: 183) See also: Final report of investigating committee, our reporting, additional coverage

  2. Joachim Boldt (97) See also: Editors-in-chief statement, our coverage

  3. Yoshihiro Sato (87) See also: our coverage

  4. Jun Iwamoto (69) See also: our coverage

  5. Diederik Stapel (58) See also: our coverage

  6. Yuhji Saitoh (53)  See also: our coverage

  7. Adrian Maxim (48) See also: our coverage

  8. Chen-Yuan (Peter) Chen (43) See also: SAGE, our coverage

  9. Fazlul Sarkar (41) See also: our coverage

  10. Hua Zhong (41) See also: journal notice

  11. Shigeaki Kato (40) See also: our coverage

  12. James Hunton (37) See also: our coverage

  13. Hyung-In Moon (35) See also: our coverage

  14. Naoki Mori (32) See also: our coverage

  15. Jan Hendrik Schön (32) See also: our coverage

  16. Soon-Gi Shin (30) See also: our coverage

  17. Tao Liu (29) See also: our coverage

  18. Bharat Aggarwal (28) See also: our coverage

  19. Cheng-Wu Chen (28) See also: our coverage

  20. A Salar Elahi (27) See also: our coverage

  21. Ali Nazari (27) See also: our coverage

  22. Richard L E Barnett (26) See also: our coverage

  23. Antonio Orlandi (26) See also: our coverage

  24. Shahaboddin Shamshirband (26) See also: our coverage

  25. Prashant K Sharma (26) See also: our coverage

  26. Rashmi Madhuri (24) See also: our coverage

  27. Scott Reuben (24) See also: our coverage

  28. Thomas M Rosica (23) See also: our coverage

  29. Alfredo Fusco (22) See also: our coverage

  30. M Ghoranneviss (22) See also: our coverage

  31. Anil K Jaiswal (22) See also: our coverage

  32. Gilson Khang (22) See also: our coverage

  However, the results parallel, quite well, retractions for corrupting the peer-review process. Thus six of these scientists are Japanese, 4 are Indian, 3 are Iranian, 3 are South Korean, 3 are from the USA, 2 are Taiwanese, 2 are Chinese. Interestingly, some of these Third World scientists have corrupted other countries, most notably the USA. Indian Bharat Aggarwal was based at the University of Texas.  Fazlul Sarkar, originally from Iran, was at Wayne State University in Detroit.[Researcher Fazlul Sarkar Has 12 More Papers Retracted, by Sukanya Charuchandra, The Scientist Magazine, September 17, 2018]

  Note that one of the people on the list was Taiwanese education minister Wei-ling Chiang! He was forced to resign in 2014 when his role in a peer-review corruption ring was unearthed. [Peer Review Scandal Takes Down Taiwanese Minister, by Yu-Tzu Chiu, IEEE Spectrum, July 16, 2014]

  The corruption of science in countries like India, Iran and China is unsurprising. They either have low average IQs and/or are poor and these factors tend to predict corruption. (This tendency is discussed by Richard Lynn & Tatu Vanhanen in their 2012 book Intelligence, pages 152-157).

  Quite why scientific corruption should be so prevalent in high IQ and wealthy Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea is less clear. One suggestion: they are strongly shame-oriented—saving face is all important—rather than guilt-oriented, like the West, where individual conscience will sometimes stop people from doing things even when they can get away with them.  Shame cultures arguably lead people to be dishonest in order to achieve much prized social status, in a way that they wouldn’t otherwise be [Science as a Matter of Honour: How Accused Scientists Deal with Scientific Fraud in Japan, by Pablo Pellegrini, Science and Engineering Ethics, 2018].

  Put simply, some countries are more prone to scientific corruption—and so are people from those countries. I reported a while ago on how trust in universities may be gradually undermined by Political Correctness and the driving of genius scientists from universities due to increasing female dominance of academe.

  Perhaps the habit of importing scientists from non-Western countries will be further nail in the coffin of universities.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 11/29/2019 – 21:30

• Massive Explosions Rock Texas Chemical Plant, Putting 16% Of North America's Rubber Production At Risk
  Massive Explosions Rock Texas Chemical Plant, Putting 16% Of North America's Rubber Production At Risk

  Several explosions rocked a TPC Group Southeast Texas chemical manufacturing plant in the hours leading up to Thanksgiving, which could have a profound effect on the production of synthetic rubber used primarily in the automotive industry heading into the end of the year.

  There were zero fatalities, but more than 50,000 people within a 4 mile radius of the blast were ordered to evacuate, according to FreightWaves. The first explosion happened at about 1AM on the day before Thanksgiving, injuring three people. 

  TPC Group said on its website: “TPC Group – is working with the authorities and are forming a team to complete a full investigation and root cause examination once the event has been mitigated.”

  There were 30 people at the plant when the first explosion occurred. Additional explosions continued throughout the afternoon of November 27 and fires continued to burn throughout Thanksgiving day. Local officials indicated they intended to let the fire burn out on its own. 

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  Jefferson County (Texas) Judge Jeff Branick said at a press conference: “I don’t think the focus is on putting the fire out, but letting the materials in there burn themselves out.”

  Jefferson County is located about 95 miles east of Houston and the plant is located at Port Neches. The city runs “along the Beaumont-Sabine Pass ship channel near the Gulf of Mexico.”

  The 218 acre plant produces butadiene and raffinate, and stores a gasoline additive called methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE).

  Butadiene is used in synthetic rubber used for tires and automobile hoses and the TPC plant produces about 16% of the continent’s supply. Among TPC’s customers are Firestone Tires, Goodyear Tires and Dow Chemical. 

  The company’s website says: “Combined production capacity for this facility is more than 900 million pounds per year [of butadiene and raffinate]. Logistics infrastructure capabilities [at the Port Neches site] include pipeline, barge, rail and tank car.”

  “TPC has not yet determined the full impact on TPC’s plant, operations or financials. It is not clear at this time for how long the plant will be shut down,” the company concluded. 

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 11/29/2019 – 21:00

  Tags

  Environment

  

• Chinese Crypto Exchange IDAX Locks Cold Wallet As CEO "Goes Missing"
  Chinese Crypto Exchange IDAX Locks Cold Wallet As CEO "Goes Missing"

  Authored by William Suberg via CoinTelegraph.com,

  Chinese cryptocurrency exchange IDAX has suspended deposits and withdrawals after its CEO allegedly disappeared.

  In a blog post on Nov. 29, IDAX, which earlier this week warned it was seeing a run on withdrawals, said the whereabouts of Lei Guorong were currently unknown. 

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  image courtesy of CoinTelegraph

  IDAX: cold wallet access “restricted”

  “Since we have announced the announcement on November 24, IDAX Global CEO have gone missing with unknown cause and IDAX Global staffs were out of touch with IDAX Global CEO,” it reads.

  The blog post continues that as a precaution, the company’s cold wallet was on lockdown to protect user funds:

  “For this reason, access to Cold wallet which is stored almost all cryptocurrency balances on IDAX has been restricted so in effect, deposit/withdrawal service cannot be provided.”

  IDAX did not directly link Lei with cold wallet access, nor did it suggest that users’ money was specifically at risk. 

  Exchanges feel renewed pressure

  The debacle follows a contentious period for cryptocurrency in China after authorities doubled down on the country’s 2017 trading ban last week. As Cointelegraph reported, a sweep saw the central bank vowing to “dispose of” any exchanges it found flouting the ban. 

  IDAX stopped serving Chinese users at the start of the week. Its predicament nonetheless provides yet another example of the pitfalls involved when trusting a third party to store cryptocurrency.

  Earlier this week, South Korean exchange Upbit likewise halted users’ access to funds after a suspicious transaction saw more than $50 million leave its books at once. 

  While investors appear to be waking up to the risks, recent data shows that even institutional traders still overwhelmingly prefer trusting others with their funds.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 11/29/2019 – 20:30

  Tags

  Business Finance

  

• Hong Kong Police May Start Using Painful Wooden Bullets On Protesters
  Hong Kong Police May Start Using Painful Wooden Bullets On Protesters

  Hong Kong police have threatened to use wooden bullets to disperse protesters, according to comments made by Police Commissioner Chris Tang at a Thursday tea gathering. 

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  

  The Hong Kong Free Press reports that the ‘wooden baton rounds’ cause more damage to the human body vs. rubber bullets. According to watchdog group Civil Rights Watch, Hong Kong police have also been using tear gas, bean bag rounds and other nonlethal weapons, which have resulted in multiple injuries. 

  Police Senior Superintendent of the Operations Branch Wong Wai-shun said at a press conference on Friday that the force had adopted rubber bullets and replaced wood baton rounds 16 years ago, owing of their effectiveness.

  But Wong denied that wooden bullets would cause more damage, and said the police will use different weapons wherever it was appropriate, and will use the minimum force necessary.

  “The police will constantly review the effectiveness of our ammunition,” he said. –HKFP

  The Civil Rights watchdog has accused police of abusing the use of crowd control weapons – in one instance blinding a reporter who was shot in the face.

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  “The police commissioner seeking to do more damage with non-live ammunition and non-lethal weapons is a violation to the spirit of the United Nations’s ‘Basic Principles on the Use of Force and Firearms by Law Enforcement Officials’ to avoid deaths and injuries caused by force,” said the group. 

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  Protesters have called for an investigation into police abuses as part of their multi-pronged demands. The movement began some five months ago in response to an extradition bill which would allow suspects in Hong Kong to be removed from the country to stand trial in communist courts. 

  Over 5,800 people have been arrested during the protests, according to HKFP. Meanwhile, the police are recalling over 1,000 retired officers to staff the riots. 

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 11/29/2019 – 20:00

  Tags

  War Conflict

  

• American Life Expectancy Dropping Dramatically Thanks To White Working Class Male Suicides
  American Life Expectancy Dropping Dramatically Thanks To White Working Class Male Suicides

  Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

  After increasing for decades, American life expectancy is now facing an alarming decline thanks mainly to suicides of white working age men.

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  A study published by the journal JAMA, found that life expectancy in America increased from 1959 to 2014 but that the number plateaued in 2011 and began decreasing in 2014.

  “The study… found that the decline is mostly among “working-age” Americans, or those ages 25 to 64,” reports Live Science.

  “In this group, the risk of dying from drug abuse, suicide, hypertension and more than 30 other causes is increasing.”

  The decline in life expectancy for working aged males has not been recorded in other developed countries and is a “distinctly American phenomenon,” according to study co-author Steven H. Woolf of Virginia Commonwealth University School of Medicine.

  According to Lisa Britton, CNN’s coverage of the story omitted the crucial point that the decline was being driven by male suicides.

  “CNN just did a piece on the declining life-expectancy rate in the US… and failed to mention it’s the MEN’s rate that is declining! Women have maintained a steady rate although there’s been an uptick in the women’s overdose rate (The Wash Post turned their story into that) Wow,” she tweeted.

  As we discuss in the video below, the only demographic group that has seen a dramatic rise in suicides and “deaths of despair” is white, middle aged, working class men.

  Despite this, the media and the culture still relentlessly blames that same demographic for both historical and contemporary societal ills, de-legitimizing their trauma under the rubric of “white privilege.”

  *  *  *

  My voice is being silenced by free speech-hating Silicon Valley behemoths who want me disappeared forever. It is CRUCIAL that you support me. Please sign up for the free newsletter here. Donate to me on SubscribeStar here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 11/29/2019 – 19:30

  Tags

  Social Issues

  

• Man Wielding 5' Narwhal Tusk Helped Subdue London Bridge Terrorist
  Man Wielding 5' Narwhal Tusk Helped Subdue London Bridge Terrorist

  A quick-thinking bystander who was inside London’s Fishmonger’s Hall when a deadly terrorist attack began grabbed a 5′ narwhal tusk off the wall and helped subdue a knife-wielding man who killed two pedestrians on London Bridge.

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  The attacker, said to be a recently-released terrorist prisoner believed to be wearing a fake suicide vest and a tracking tag, was taken down by the tusk-wielding hero and a man with a fire extinguisher before police shot him dead. 

  Sources have told Sky News the suspect in the London Bridge attack was a recently-released terrorist prisoner believed to have been wearing a tag

  — Sky News Breaking (@SkyNewsBreak) November 29, 2019

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  “A guy who was with us at Fishmongers Hall took a 5′ narwhale [sic] tusk from the wall and went out to confront the attacker,” tweeted Amy Coop.

  A guy who was with us at Fishmongers Hall took a 5’ narwhale tusk from the wall and went out to confront the attacker. You can see him standing over the man (with what looks like a white pole) in the video. We were trying to help victims inside but that man’s a hero #LondonBridge

  — Amy Coop (@theamycoop) November 29, 2019

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  Yup

  — Amy Coop (@theamycoop) November 29, 2019

  There it is. Unbelievable. pic.twitter.com/mWwavqCUMQ

  — Adam Gatto (@adamgatto) November 29, 2019

  When you wrestle a knife from a terrorist but remembered you picked up for the lads tonight. #LondonBridge #LondonBridgeAttack #LondonBridgeIncident #londonshooting pic.twitter.com/rpo8ZO5fgZ

  — RWK (@firedeathpony) November 29, 2019

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  After police stepped in:

  London bridge shooting #London #LondonBridge pic.twitter.com/H5RJQgh60u

  — Jon Stewart (@JonStewartUK) November 29, 2019

  Terrorism attacker lay dead on #Londonbridge 💪🇬🇧

  Brilliant work by armed police pic.twitter.com/ScOqsyOFX6

  — London Crime LDN (@CrimeLdn) November 29, 2019

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  Glad you’re okay. Also, this is legit the most bad ass thing I’ve ever heard.

  — Tom Strachan (@tstrachanedit) November 29, 2019

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jshttps://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jshttps://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jshttps://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 11/29/2019 – 19:00

• Ecofascism: The Climate Debate Turns Violent
  Ecofascism: The Climate Debate Turns Violent

  Authored by Onar Am via LibertyNation.com,

  Recently, the European Institute for Climate and Energy held its annual conference in Germany, with more than 200 attendees. This year, however, the organization met in hiding from the Open Anti-Capitalist Climate Protest, affiliated with the communist domestic terror group Antifa.

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  The protestors’ goal has been to shut down climate debate through harassment, intimidation, disruption, and violence. Americans are familiar with the violent tendencies of Antifa, but its German counterpart is even more radical and echoes the brownshirt terror of the 1920s-30s. This year, therefore, the climate scientists had to hold their conference at a secret location.

  EcoFascism

  What were the offending words the ecofascists wanted to prevent the audience from hearing? Speeches with titles like “The Real Condition of the Great Barrier Reef,” “The Influence of Greenhouse Gases on Climate Research,” and “What Role Did the Sun Play in Climate Change” presented by top scientists from all over the world.

  The activists, however, were recruited with the narrative that the conference attendants were “near-AfD.” Alternative for Germany (AfD) is a nationalist-populist party that has risen immensely in popularity in recent years due to the influx of Third World migrants. Because supporters of AfD want to limit immigration, Antifa views them as neo-Nazis. Portraying climate scientists and conference attendees as “near-AfD” painted a virtual target on their foreheads.

  This confluence of socialism and environmentalism is not new. The National Socialists in Germany were pioneers in vegetarianism, ecological food, renewable energy, and animal welfare. On Aug. 28, 1933, Hermann Göring announced in a radio speech that:

  “An absolute and permanent ban on vivisection is not only a necessary law to protect animals and to show sympathy with their pain, but it is also a law for humanity itself … I have therefore announced the immediate prohibition of vivisection and have made the practice a punishable offense in Prussia. Until such time as punishment is pronounced, the culprit shall be lodged in a concentration camp.”

  The profound commitment by the Third Reich to totalitarian environmentalism is detailed in Ecofascism: Lessons From the German Experience by author Janet Biehl and associate professor at Marquette University Dr. Peter Staudenmeier.

  After Germany’s defeat in World War II, environmentalism was picked up by other socialists, first in the 1960s and then in the 1990s. After the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, disillusioned communists in search of a new leftist ideology became climate activists. Now, 30 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the Soviet failure has been forgotten and suppressed, and a new generation of ignorant youth now openly embraces both communism and ecofascism.

  Violence Versus Debate

  In the good old days of the late 1990s there was still a vigorous and healthy climate debate, and even those who warned of pending doom conceded that the science was shaky and uncertain. Then, as the influence of ecofascism increased, the message was changed to “the science is settled,” even though the evidence is mounting for the climate skeptic position. Now, we see that debate is abandoned altogether in favor of outright threats of violence.

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  Fascism, in any form, if it is permitted to grow, tends to end in a dark place. On one occasion, Göring sent a fisherman to a concentration camp for cutting up a bait frog. The Enlightenment philosophers valued free speech as the primary value of a free society because they understood that, if debate as an arena for the outlet of disagreement is stifled, the only alternative is violence.

  Nowadays, everyone who disagrees with the radical left is branded as racist, misogynist, homophobic,  Islamophobic, and transphobic. Even climate scientists skeptical of catastrophic global warming are given the same treatment. Who’s next?

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 11/29/2019 – 18:30

  Tags

  Environment

  

• "Black Friday Is Dying" – Shopping Malls Turn To "Ghost Towns" Amid Online Shift
  "Black Friday Is Dying" – Shopping Malls Turn To "Ghost Towns" Amid Online Shift

  Black Friday is undergoing a transformative period where consumers are ditching brick-and-mortar stores for online shopping.

  Reuters noted Friday, that traffic volumes at stores across the country on Thanksgiving eve were soft — and it’s likely the trend will continue through the weekend.

  Another report via KeyBanc Capital Markets found traffic “somewhat muted at malls” during Thanksgiving and Black Friday.

  KeyBanc’s analyst Edward Yruma attributed the decline to more online sales. 

  KeyBanc’s note said Gap, Banana Republic, Express and Zara offered 50% discounts, but that still wasn’t enough to attract shoppers. 

  Though traffic was steady at Walmart, Target, and Lululemon. 

  As of noon, Salesforce.com observed online sales of $7.4 billion on Black Friday, 16% higher than a year ago. 

  “It speaks to the fact that we’re amidst this digital transformation that’s happening for both the consumers and the retailers,” Rob Garf, vice president of industry strategy and insights at Salesforce, told Bloomberg.

  Some other possible reasons behind the weak turn out could be due retailers already offered an entire month of aggressive sales leading up to Black Friday. There are often limitations of how much a consumer can purchase as credit card rates soar to 25-year highs.

  The National Retail Federation (NRF) polled consumers earlier this month who said most of their shopping has already been done, many of whom took advantage of the deals leading up to Black Friday.

  NRF said retail sales for November through December are expected to increase by 3.8% to 4.2% YoY, for a total of around $730 billion, but a larger portion could be coming from e-commerce.

  Another reason for the softer turn out could be generational trends. As millennials take over the workforce, they don’t want to follow in the footsteps of their ‘Ok Boomer’ parents who have been herded like sheep into stores for decades. Millennials would rather “Netflix and chill” while surfing for deals on their mobile devices.

  There’s also evidence that the US economy is rapidly slowing and the US consumer is pulling back on spending as a recession could be nearing. The chart below shows the industrial recession has likely transmitted weakness into the consumer, which could produce a rather weak holiday spending period.

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  As for some evidence of consumers ditching brick-and-mortar stores this Black Friday, we turn to Twitter:

  Other Black Friday halftime news:

  No Baby Yoda until January. “to keep it a secret”. Plenty of secrets from Frozen II are available. $LB is a ghost town. Specifically the bordello in a ghost town. $M wasn’t terrible(!).

  Most traffic at Lulu or coffee. Black Friday is dying. pic.twitter.com/0BsX8eyGxz

  — Jeff Macke (@JeffMacke) November 29, 2019

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  I found Black Friday Excitement! $LULU released new clearance. Pretty much all the mall traffic is here. pic.twitter.com/LxM9uCyyID

  — Jeff Macke (@JeffMacke) November 29, 2019

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Retail of the Damned: plenty of associates available at Forever21, Builda-a-Bear and Express.

  Discounts matter not. Customers don’t care.

  50% off Santa Furry costumes, for Cosplay (“FancyDress”) people. pic.twitter.com/qQ02fTkfAN

  — Jeff Macke (@JeffMacke) November 29, 2019

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  A little more traffic @Target this Black Friday am compared to last year #NPDHoliday @npdretail #BlackFriday pic.twitter.com/lxr0CNfkTr

  — Joe Derochowski (@JoeDerochowski) November 29, 2019

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  Against my better judgement I agreed to take my daughter to the Castleton Square Mall in #Indianapolis for #BlackFriday shopping. I was shocked to see no traffic jams, plenty of parking, and some stores with few customers. I just might liquidate my retail stocks on Monday😂 pic.twitter.com/IV7n38L9NM

  — Brian Christopher (@bchrisphotos) November 29, 2019

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  Here’s a look at the roadways near shopping areas. No traffic issues right now. Drive safe this #BlackFriday. https://t.co/QSNt3h0GRK @KFOX14 @JessicaKFOX_CBS pic.twitter.com/WYyKUl48n8

  — KFOX14 Traffic (@KFOXTraffic) November 29, 2019

  Damn web shoppers. https://t.co/cniUWpROy2

  — Jeff Macke (@JeffMacke) November 29, 2019

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  And to get an idea of what Black Friday used to look like before the consumer went broke and the internet came around. Here are a few short minutes of fights, stampedes, riots, and utter chaos, all over cheap plastic junk that was mostly made in China. 

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 11/29/2019 – 18:00

  Tags

  Business Finance

  

• Understand The OPCW Scandal In Seven Minutes
  Understand The OPCW Scandal In Seven Minutes

  Authored by Caitlin Johnstone via Medium.com,

  One of the annoying things about continuing to write about the OPCW/Douma scandal in the near-total absence of mainstream media coverage is the fact that it’s difficult for a new reader to just jump in on this developing story without having followed it from the beginning. There are a lot of details to go over to introduce someone to the story, and if I repeat them every time I write an article on the subject I’m twelve paragraphs in before I get to the new developments, and by that time I’ve bored all the readers who didn’t need the introduction. I’m sure other alternative media figures commenting on this story have encountered the same problem.

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  Fortunately for us, In The Now and journalist Dan Cohen have stepped up to the plate and put together a concise, easy-to-follow video on both Twitter and Facebook explaining the OPCW scandal in a way that enables anyone to familiarize themselves with the story in seven minutes. This article exists solely to draw attention to this excellent resource.

  A leaked email accuses the OPCW of doctoring a report to suit the US government’s justification for its illegal bombing of Syria in April 2018. I explain the scandal mainstream media is trying to supress: pic.twitter.com/MTS4OWwqkH

  — Dan Cohen (@dancohen3000) November 28, 2019

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Cohen has been really great about quickly getting concise, quality videos out to help people make sense of specific developing stories which the haze of western propaganda makes difficult to understand; his recent videos on the Bolivia coup and the Hong Kong protests were very helpful in the same way. He uses robust arguments and independently verifiable facts to clearly show that there’s much more to these stories than the mass media have been letting us know.

  I’ll definitely be linking to this video in my articles going forward to enable anyone who hasn’t been following the OPCW scandal closely to quickly familiarize themselves with the story. The more of these lucid, accessible resources we’ve got circulating within the information ecosystem, the better.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 11/29/2019 – 17:35

• "Forget The KKK, Modern-Day Liberals Are The Biggest Impediment": Clarence Thomas Reflects On Biden Experience
  "Forget The KKK, Modern-Day Liberals Are The Biggest Impediment": Clarence Thomas Reflects On Biden Experience

  Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas says that modern day liberals posed the biggest impediment to his career, as opposed to what he was taught to believe.

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  “I felt as though in my life I had been looking at the wrong people as the people who would be problematic toward me. We were told that, ‘Oh, it’s gonna be the bigot in the pickup truck; it’s gonna be the Klansmen; it’s gonna be the rural sheriff,” Thomas says in a forthcoming documentary, “Created Equal: Clarence Thomas in His Own Words.”

  “But it turned out that through all of that, ultimately the biggest impediment was the modern day liberal,” he added. “They were the ones who would discount all those things because they have one issue or because they have the power to caricature you,” according to ABC News.

  Thomas has joined public criticism of former Vice President and 2020 Democratic candidate Joe Biden, whose handling of Thomas’s 1991 Supreme Court hearings when he was a Senator has fallen under harsh scrutiny.

  Thomas sat for more than 22 hours of interviews over a six-month period in 2018, according to the film’s publicist. Manifold has advertised the movie as a chance to “tell the Clarence Thomas story truly and fully, without cover-ups or distortions.”

  The movie also casts a spotlight on Biden, who has faced renewed criticism from his fellow Democrats for his treatment of Anita Hill, an African-American law professor who had accused Thomas of sexual harassment and testified publicly before the committee during the 1991 hearings. Biden called Hill to apologize earlier this year for his handling of the case. –ABC News

  Thomas denied Hill’s allegations, which he referred to during the Biden-led hearings as a “high-tech lynching.”

  “Do I have like stupid written on the back of my shirt? I mean, come on. We know what this is all about,” Thomas says in the documentary.

  “People should just tell the truth: ‘This is the wrong black guy; he has to be destroyed.’ Just say it. Then now we’re at least honest with each other. The idea was to get rid of me. And then, after I was there, it was to undermine me.”

  While Thomas does not mention Biden by name, he is asked by filmmakers to respond directly to Biden’s line of questioning during the hearings on his views of natural law.

  “I have no idea what he was talking about,” Thomas says of Biden.

  “I understood what he was trying to do. I didn’t really appreciate it,” he added. “Natural law was nothing more than a way of tricking me into talking about abortion.” –ABC News

  In response to the documentary, Biden’s deputy communications director Bill Russo said in a statement to ABC: “Then-Senator Biden voted against Clarence Thomas in the Senate Judiciary Committee, he argued against him on the Senate floor, and he voted against his confirmation to a lifetime seat on the Supreme Court. It is no surprise that Justice Thomas does not have a positive view of him.”

  Thomas was eventually confirmed in the Senate by a slim margin of 52 to 48 on Oct. 15, 1991. 

  “Most of my opponents on the judiciary committee cared about only one thing,” Thomas says in the film. “How would I rule on abortion rights. You really didn’t matter and your life didn’t matter. What mattered is what they wanted and what they wanted was this particular issue.”

  Thomas speaks at length about his journey from childhood in impoverished rural Georgia, to a stint in a Roman Catholic seminary, and on to the elite classrooms of Holy Cross and Yale. He describes his grandfather, a fuel oil deliveryman in Savannah, as one of the biggest influences on his life, teaching him determination and self-reliance.

  Thomas says those values are what sustain him in the face of persistent criticism as a black conservative.

  “There’s different sets of rules for different people,” he says. “If you criticize a black person who’s more liberal, you’re a racist. Whereas you can do whatever to me, or to now (HUD Secretary) Ben Carson, and that’s fine, because you’re not really black because you’re not doing what we expect black people to do.” –ABC News

  The documentary is set for theatrical release in early 2020 and will air on PBS next spring.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 11/29/2019 – 17:10

• The Fed Detests Free Markets
  The Fed Detests Free Markets

  Authored by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,

  I wanted to write something to address how little people know and acknowledge about how disastrous central bank policies have been for our societies and economies.

  Because they don’t, and they have no clue, largely and simply because of the way central banks are presented both by themselves and by the financial press that covers them. Make that “covers”. Still, going forward, we will have no way to ignore the damage done. All the QE and ZIRP and NIRP will turn out to be so destructive for us all they will rival climate change or actual warfare. That’s what I wanted to talk about.

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  You see, free markets are a great idea in theory. Or you can call it “capitalism”, or combine the two and say “free market capitalism”. There’s very little wrong with it in theory. You have an enormous multitude of participants in an utterly complex web of transitions, too complex for the human mind to comprehend, and in the end that web figures out what values all sorts of things, and actions etc., have.

  I don’t think capitalism in itself is a bad thing; what people don’t like is when it veers into neo-liberalism, when everything is for sale, when communities or their governments no longer own anything, when roads and hospitals and public services and everything that holds people together in a given setting is being sold off to the highest bidder. There are many things that have values other than monetary ones, and neo-liberalism denies that. Capitalism in itself, not so much.

  It’s like nature, really, like evolution, but it’s Darwin AND empathy, individuals AND groups. The problem is, and this is where it diverges from nature, you have to make sure the markets remain free, that certain participants -or groups thereof- don’t bend the rules in their own favor. In that sense it’s very similar to what the human race has been doing to nature for a long time, and increasingly so.

  Now, if you limit the discussion to finance and economics, there would appear to be one institution that’s in an ideal place to make sure that this “rule-bending” doesn’t take place, that markets are fair and free, or as free as can be. That institution is a central bank. But whaddaya know, central banks do the exact opposite: they are the ones making sure markets are not free.

  In the ideal picture, free markets are -or would be- self-correcting, and have an inbuilt self-regulating mechanism. If and when prices go up too much, the system will make sure they go lower, and vice versa. It’s what we know from physics and biology as a negative -self correcting- feedback loop. The self-correcting mechanism only activates if the system has veered too much in one direction, but we fail to see that as good thing when applied to both directions, too high and too low (yes, Goldilocks, exactly).

  It’s only when people start tweaking and interfering with the system, that it fails. Negative feedback vs positive feedback are misunderstood terms simply because of their connotation. After all, who wants anything negative? But this is important in the free markets topic, because as soon as a central bank starts interfering in, name an example, housing prices in a country, the system automatically switches from negative feedback to positive -runaway- feedback, there is no middle ground and there is no way out anymore, other than a major crash or even collapse.

  Well, we’re well on our way to one of those. Because the Fed refused to let the free market system work. They, and the banks they represent, wanted the way up but then refused the way down. And now we’re stuck in a mindless positive feedback loop (new highs in stocks on a daily basis), and there’s nothing Jay Powell and his minions can do anymore to correct it.

  The system has its own correction mechanism, but Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen and now Powell thought they could do better. Or maybe they didn’t and they just wanted their banker friends to haul in all the loot, it doesn’t even matter anymore. They’ve guaranteed that there are no free markets, because they murdered self-correction.

  Same goes, again, for ECB and BOJ; they’re just Fed followers (only often even crazier). In fact since they have no petrodollar, they don’t just follow, they have to do the Fed one better. Which is why they have negative interest rates -and the US does not -yet-: it’s the only way to compete with the reserve currency. Of course today even the Fed, and “even even” the PBOC, are discussing moving to negative rates, and by now we’re truly talking lemmings on top of a cliff.

  “Let’s throw $10 trillion at the wall just so home prices or stock prices don’t go down!” Yeah, but if they’ve been rising a lot, maybe that’s the only direction they can and should go. It may not be nice for banks and so-called “investors”, but it’s the only way to keep the system healthy. If you don’t allow for the negative feedback self-correction, you can only create much bigger problems than you already have. And then you will get negative feedback squared and cubed.

  Unless, of course, you have stellar economic growth, and you find unparalleled amounts of oil, and you have a growing population with way more kids born than people dying. But in case you don’t, you’re merely making an initially relatively minor problem much much worse with QE and ZIRP.

  What central banks have been doing is they’ve utterly destroyed savings and pensions, i.e. the only thing “ordinary” people had to stave off their own personal collapse and that of their communities. ZIRP and NIRP move all those savings and pensions towards the bankers. And yes, pension funds may have moved into equities from bonds, and they may look good momentarily, but the current parade of new highs in stock markets only exists because of central banks’ QE and ZIRP.

  There are tons of zombie enterprises in the world, many of whom have been kept alive by central bank policies, but wait till it becomes evident that the pension funds and systems themselves have turned into zombies. That’ll wake you up. Because who’s going take care of grandma, or her daughter, in a few years’ time? One thing’s for sure, it won’t be Jay Powell.

  *  *  *

  Please support the Automatic Earth on Paypal and Patreon so we can continue to publish.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 11/29/2019 – 16:45

• China Braces For December D-Day: The "Unprecedented" Default Of A Massive State-Owned Enterprise
  China Braces For December D-Day: The "Unprecedented" Default Of A Massive State-Owned Enterprise

  Something is seriously starting to break in China’s financial system.

  Three days after we described the self-destructive doom loop that is tearing apart China’s smaller banks,  where a second bank run took place in just two weeks – an unprecedented event for a country where until earlier this year not a single bank was allowed to fail publicly and has now had no less than five bank  high profile nationalizations/bailouts/runs so far this year – the Chinese bond market is bracing itself for an unprecedented shock: a major, Fortune 500 Chinese commodity trader is poised to become the biggest and highest profile state-owned enterprise to default in the dollar bond market in over two decades.

  In what Bloomberg dubbed the latest sign that Beijing is more willing to allow failures in the politically sensitive SOE sector – either that, or China is simply no longer able to control the spillovers from its cracking $40 trillion financial system – commodity trader Tewoo Group  – the largest state-owned enterprise in China’s Tianjin province – has offered an “unprecedented” debt restructuring plan that entails deep losses for investors or a swap for new bonds with significantly lower returns.

  Tewoo Group is a SOE conglomerate, owned by the local government and operates in a number of industries including infrastructure, logistics, mining, autos and ports, according to its website. It also operates in multiples countries including the U.S., Germany, Japan and Singapore. The company ranked 132 in 2018’s Fortune Global 500 list, higher than many other Chinese conglomerates including service carrier China Telecommunications and financial titan Citic Group. Even more notable are the company’s financials: it had an annual revenue of $66.6 billion, profits of about $122 million, assets worth $38.3 billion, and more than 17,000 employees as of 2017, according to Fortune’s website.

  The state-owned company is neither publicly listed nor rated by the top three international ratings companies, although it does have publicly traded bonds whose performance in recent months has been nothing short of terrifying for anyone who thought purchasing a company explicitly backed by Beijing can never fail.

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  As one can deduce from the above chart, the first time Tewoo Group’s financial difficulties emerged was in April when it sought debt extension from its lenders on its offshore, dollar bonds and sold copper below market rates amid a cash crunch. At that time, Fitch Ratings – the only rating agency to appraise the company’s credit standing – slashed the company’s credit score first from BBB to BBB- on April 18, and then by a whopping six notches, from BBB – to B- on April 29, to reflect its weak liquidity and higher-than-expected leverage.

  According to Bloomberg the company has proposed an exchange/tender offer on the three dollar bonds due to mature over the next three years, as well as a perpetual note. What makes what would otherwise be a mundane exchange offer in the US, is that this is the first ever distressed plan of its kind from a state-owned Chinese firm.

  What is just as striking is that the Tewoo Group – with its $66 billion in revenues and $38 billion in assets – is likely to default on its $300 million dollar bond due Dec. 16, a Bloomberg source said, unless the exchange is consummated. This means that the company’s bondholders have just a few weeks to decide between either taking as much as 64% in losses or accepting delayed repayment with sharply reduced coupons on $1.25 billion of dollar bonds, something which the rating agencies will describe as an event of default.

  A de facto default by Tewoo would be considered a “landmark case,” said Cindy Huang, an analyst at S&P Global Ratings. Central government support for SOEs is likely to be selective in the future, while local government aid will be limited by the slowing economy and weaker fiscal position, she said.

  The “distressed exchange offer” comes after Tewoo Group said last week it would be unable to pay interest on a $500 million bond, prompting Industrial & Commercial Bank of China to transfer $7.875 million to bondholders on its behalf. ICBC provided a standby letter of credit on the note – a pledge to repay if the borrower can’t. However, the firm’s remaining $1.6 billion of dollar bonds lack such protection.

  Worse, Tewoo Group is already in effective default after some of its units previously missed local debt payments – in July, Tianjin Hopetone missed a coupon payment on its 1.21 billion yuan note sending the company’s dollar bonds tumbling below 50 cents on the dollar, while Tianjin Haoying Industry & Trade missed a loan interest payment due in June. Also in July, rating agency Fitch – which somehow missed all of this when it was rating the company investment grade – withdrew its rating on Tewoo Group due to insufficient information to maintain the ratings. It last rated the issuer at B-.

  And as furious bondholders scramble to demand an explanation how a state-owned enterprise can default, Beijing is already bracing for the inevitable next steps: earlier this month, Tianjin State-owned Capital Investment and Management, an entity wholly-owned by the Tianjin municipal government, was appointed to manage the company’s offshore debt. For now, the entity has no plan to hold controlling stakes in Tewoo Group, although that will likely change as soon as the company’s financial situation fails to improve. Meanwhile, Tewoo Group said it plans to take a series of debt management measures, by which we assume it means it will restructure its debt.

  The fact that a state owned enterprise such as Tewoo has just days before it defaults, in either a prepack or “freefall” form, suggests that Beijing will no longer bail out troubled SOEs, let alone private firms, perhaps due to the strains imposed by the economy which is slowing the most in three decades. It also raises concerns over Tianjin, where it’s based, following a series of rating downgrades and financing difficulties suffered by some of the city’s state-run firms. The metropolis near Beijing also has the highest ratio of local government financing vehicle bonds to GDP in China.

  In short, if there a glitch with Tewoo’s default, the Chinese dominoes could start really falling.

  Since the first SOE bond default emerged in China’s domestic market four years ago, 22 such firms have failed to make good on a combined 48.4 billion yuan ($6.9 billion) onshore bonds as of the end of October, according to Guosheng Securities. However, as Bloomberg adds, despite periodic scares such as late repayment, Chinese SOEs have yet to suffer any high-profile default in the dollar bond market since the collapse of Guangdong International Trust and Investment Corp. in 1998.

  Tewoo would be precisely that high-profile default.

  * * *

  There were early signs of Tewoo Group’s debt crisis. The bankruptcy of Bohai Steel Group in 2018 triggered systemic risk in Tianjin’s financial market. The incident involved a large number of local companies and financial institutions, which recorded huge amounts of bad debt. Financial institutions became more conservative in their lending standards, and this resulted in liquidity issues for a number of Tianjin enterprises.

  At the same time, Beijing’s deleveraging and capacity reduction reforms made it difficult for a traditionally highly-leveraged company like Tewoo to raise financing. The default in May 2018 by Hsin Chong Group Holdings Limited, a company controlled by Tewoo, showed further signs of financial problems at Tewoo Group.

  While normally such a critical company as Tewoo would be quietly bailed out by either Beijing or the local province, investors told Bloomberg that the company’s excessive debt levels will limit Tianjin authorities’ ability to lend support to the city’s troubled firms, prompting them to shun the latter’s debt. In July, Tianjin Binhai New Area Construction & Investment Group postponed plans to sell a three-year dollar bond offering amid such concern.

  Tewoo’s debt issues that had surfaced from its current crisis may be only the tip of the iceberg. Tianjin’s economic growth has slowed down sharply since the beginning of 2016. GDP growth dropped to 1.9% in the first quarter of 2018. Even as it started to rebound thereafter, the outlook is still pessimistic, with GDP growth in 2018 less than 4%, which ranked last in the country according to iFast.

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  On the other hand, according to a 2016 report released by ratings agency Moody’s, state-owned enterprises in Tianjin recorded an aggregate liability-to-fiscal revenue ratio of more than 600%, which was the highest in the country.

  At the same time, as shown in Tianjin municipal government’s most recent three-year revenue and debt data, Tianjin government’s fiscal revenue has declined significantly since 2017. Fiscal revenue fell by close to RMB40 billion in 2017, while government borrowings rose rapidly. By the end of 2018, debt owed by the Tianjin government was almost double its fiscal revenue.

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  The bankruptcy of Bohai Steel, a Tianjin SOE, in 2018 may also be a sign that the Tianjin government has lost control over the local debt crisis. Other than Bohai Steel and Tewoo, there have been a number of state-owned companies in Tianjin that are fighting to stave off insolvencies, such as Tianjin Real Estate Group Co. Limited, which owes RMB200 billion in debt. From the above observations, we think that in the event of a default by Tewoo, the company is likely to go into bankruptcy reorganization in a similar way as Bohai Steel, which has brought in capital from the private sector for its corporate restructuring. But for bondholders, recovery of their investments may be difficult, and potential loss heavy.

  So with Tianjin unlikely to step up, in the aftermath of Tewoo’s proposed debt restructuring, which will indicate that Beijing will no longer bail out even SOEs, investors’ skepticism about state support for such state-linked firms will collapse, and a default could have wider implications on how investors assess and price their bonds in the future, said Judy Kwok-Cheung, director of fixed-income research at Bank of Singapore.

  “Investors would be going back to basics in assessing credit risk in that the company’s stand-alone ability to repay is the first line of defense when it comes to non-repayment risk,” said Kwok-Cheung.

  In short, “investors” would be reacquainted with a thing called “fundamentals.” The horror, the horror.

  * * *

  It gets worse: should Tewoo’s default spread to provincial-backed debt, an already ugly situation could quickly turn catastrophic as Tianjin has the highest debt burden among megacities and provinces in China according to S&P. Earlier this year, Fitch cut ratings on several government-related entities from the city, which is reliant on heavy industry and commodities trading. As a result of having the highest debt, Tianjin also has to slowest growth – Tianjin’s local economy grew by 3.6% last year, the slowest in China; at the end of last year, Tianjin’s government had 407.9 billion yuan worth of debt outstanding, or about 22% of the size of its economy, said the Chinese credit risk assessor.

  And just in case the upcoming Tewoo D-Day isn’t troubling enough, Moody’s said that it expected the number of Chinese defaults to continue to rise in 2020 as economic growth sputters and the government attempts to rein in support to indebted companies. Specifically, Moody’s expects 40-50 new defaults in 2020, up from 35 this year, according to Ivan Chung, head of greater China credit research and analysis at Moody’s.

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  “The regulators’ intention is to reduce moral hazard” while at the same time ensuring any defaults “won’t undermine socioeconomic stability or trigger systemic risks,” Chung said on Wednesday, who added that whereas state support may be available for companies engaged in social welfare projects, for those that are more commercial in nature, “government support may not be so forthcoming,” he said.

  Which is the worst possible news for Tweoo’s bondholders.

  So what happens next?

  Tewoo’s bondholders must quickly decide whether to accept the exchange/tender proposal by December 9 and 10 respectively, with the settlement date due on or around December 17. Since an event of default is now assured, the next big question is what will bondholders of China’s other SOE’s – those who bought bonds on the assumption that China will always bail them out – do next? A flurry of aggressively selling may be just the catalyst that cracks the market if it emerges in the extremely illiquid days just before Christmas.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 11/29/2019 – 16:20

  Tags

  Business Finance

  

• "Terror-Related" London Bridge Attack Leaves At Least 2 Dead, One Suspect In Custody
  "Terror-Related" London Bridge Attack Leaves At Least 2 Dead, One Suspect In Custody

  Summary:

  • Met Police are treating the incident as terror-related

  • A person is believed to have attacked people with a knife

  • A man has been detained by police, he was shot

  • There are up to five casualties, according to police, with 2 confirmed dead as of 1:30 pm ET.

  • Officers have cordoned off the bridge

  • London Bridge Station is closed

  • An explosion was heard at the south end of the bridge, near Borough Market

  • Suspect shot dead at scene

  • Police declare incident an ‘act of terror’

  * * *

  Update (1330ET): The number of confirmed deaths in Friday’s attacks has risen to 2…

  #LondonBridge: Reports now claiming 2 people were killed in the #London Bridge attack.#UK police have also said that the explosive device strapped to the body of the suspect was fake.#British PM #BorisJohnson has promised that all involved will be brought to justice.

  — Paula Slier (@PaulaSlier_RT) November 29, 2019

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  Fortunately, the London Bridge station has reopened after the incident.

  *  *  *

  Update (1022ET): Met Police have confirmed this is terror-related…

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  Workers at Amazon distribution centers in Germany have gone on strike for better pay on Black Friday, one of the busiest days of the year for retailers.

  *  *  *

  Five people have reportedly been in killed in a series of attacks on or near London Bridge early Friday afternoon, according to Sky News.

  Various reports by the media and statements by police described a series of attacks likely perpetrated by numerous attackers. Gunshots were reported on London Bridge, while explosions and an assailant stabbing victims were reported at nearby Borough Market. Early repots suggest most of those dead were killed in stabbing incidents. 

  BREAKING UPDATE: At least 5 casualties after the stabbing attack on London bridge in central London, condition of the victims unknown at this time, attacker was shot dead by police.

  — News_Executive (@News_Executive) November 29, 2019

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  Numerous police and ambulance vehicles responded to the scene on the busy thoroughfare as footage of the aftermath circulated on twitter. The BBC is reporting that witnesses saw several men attacking another man, and that at least one individual was shot. Media reports claim a suspect is in custody, while other reports claim a suspect has been shot by police.

  Police shouting for everyone to move away. Real panic setting in at London Bridge. Rumours of a shooting? pic.twitter.com/vBZoKu73za

  — Timothy Johnson (@timtj) November 29, 2019

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  Other clips circulating on line showed cops with their guns drawn and apparently pointing them at an individual on the ground.

  Someone just shot on London Bridge #london @BBCBreaking @SkyNews pic.twitter.com/qVk5IPmofb

  — amanda** (@AmandaHunter87) November 29, 2019

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  Here’s that same scene from a different angle:

  Shooting at London Bridge #LondonBridge pic.twitter.com/RB0489E0mw

  — Clare (@Clarerobbo1000) November 29, 2019

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  Now, more footage has emerged of what looks like police arresting a possible suspect.

  London bridge shooting #London #LondonBridge pic.twitter.com/H5RJQgh60u

  — Jon Stewart (@JonStewartUK) November 29, 2019

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  Here’s a closeup of that frame:

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  Other photos showed emergency vehicles and cops rushing to the scene.

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  After the shootings, reporters said there was an explosion at the nearby Borough Market, and that one suspect armed with a knife is at large.

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  Senior UK officials are monitoring the situation.

  I am in close contact with the Met Commissioner.

  Please follow @MetPoliceUK for further updates and follow the directions of any officers on the ground if you are near the incident. https://t.co/h4oBVHlhCp

  — Sadiq Khan (@SadiqKhan) November 29, 2019

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  London’s Metropolitan Police confirmed that they’re “in the early stages of dealing with an incident at London Bridge” and have blocked off the area.

  We are in the early stages of dealing with an incident at London Bridge. Please follow @metpoliceuk for updates. If you are near the scene, please follow the directions of any officer on the ground.

  — MPS Events (@MetPoliceEvents) November 29, 2019

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  We are currently dealing with an incident at London Bridge. Please stand by for updates.

  — MPS Events (@MetPoliceEvents) November 29, 2019

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  Both marches are now in Whitehall / Parliament Street.

  — MPS Events (@MetPoliceEvents) November 29, 2019

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  While shootings like this happen all the time in the US, they’re much more rare in the UK, where guns are effectively banned. London has been struggling lately with a surge in violent crime, though much of the attacks have been carried out by knife-wielding aggressors.

  The incident is looking like a repeat of the London Bridge attacks from 2017, when seven were killed by ‘lone wolf’ jihadi attackers.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 11/29/2019 – 16:15

  Tags

  War Conflict

  

• Mauldin: We're On The Brink Of The Second "Great Depression"
  Mauldin: We're On The Brink Of The Second "Great Depression"

  Authored by John Mauldin via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

  You really need to watch this video of a recent conversation between Ray Dalio and Paul Tudor Jones. Their part is about the first 40 minutes.

  In this video, Ray highlights some problematic similarities between our times and the 1930s. Both feature:

  1. a large wealth gap

  2. the absence of effective monetary policy

  3. a change in the world order, in this case the rise of China and the potential for trade wars/technology wars/capital wars.

  He threw in a few quick comments as their time was running out, alluding to the potential for the end of the world reserve system and the collapse of fiat monetary regimes.

  Maybe it was in his rush to finish as their time is drawing to a close, but it certainly sounded a more challenging tone than I have seen in his writings.

  Currency Wars

  It brought to mind an essay I read last week from my favorite central banker, former BIS Chief Economist William White.

  He was warning about potential currency wars, aiming particularly at the US Treasury’s seeming desire for a weaker dollar. Ditto for other governments around the world. He believes this is a prescription for disaster.

  One possibility is that it might lead to a disorderly end to the current dollar based regime, which is already under strain for a variety of both economic and geopolitical reasons. To destroy an old, admittedly suboptimal, regime without having prepared a replacement could prove very costly to trade and economic growth.

  Perhaps even worse, conducting a currency war implies directing monetary policy to something other than domestic price stability. There ceases to be a domestic anchor to constrain the expansion of central bank balance sheets.

  Should this lead to growing suspicion of all fiat currencies, especially those issued by governments with large sovereign debts, a sharp increase in inflationary expectations and interest rates might follow. How this might interact with the record high debt ratios, both public and private, that we see in the world today, is not hard to imagine.

  I called Bill to ask if he thought this was going to happen. Basically, he said no, but it shouldn’t even be considered. It was his gentlemanly way of issuing a warning.

  Currency devaluations against gold were part of the root cause of the Great Depression. Coupled with protectionism and tariffs, they devastated global economic growth and trade.

  The Repeat of the 1930s?

  Do I think it will happen in any significant way in the next few years?

  It is not my highest probability scenario. But imagine a recession that brings the US deficit to $2 trillion, possibly followed by a governmental change that raises taxes and spending.

  This could bring about a second “echo” recession with even higher deficits. This would force the Federal Reserve to monetize debt in order to keep interest rates from skyrocketing, thereby weakening the dollar.

  Couple this with a concurrent crisis in Europe, potentially even a eurozone breakup, resulting in countries all over the world trying to weaken their currencies with the potential for higher inflation in many places.

  In such a scenario, is it hard to imagine a desperate president and Congress, toward the latter part of the next decade, regardless of which party is in control, instructing the US Treasury to use its tools to weaken the dollar?

  Can you say beggar thy neighbor? Can you see other countries following that path? All as debt is increasing with no realistic exit strategy except to monetize it?

  *  *  *

  New York Times best seller and renowned financial expert John Mauldin predicts an unprecedented financial crisis that could be triggered in the next five years. Most investors seem completely unaware of the relentless pressure that’s building right now. Learn more here.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 11/29/2019 – 15:55

  Tags

  Business Finance

  

• String Of Attacks Rocks Globe: Hague Stabbings Leave Several Injured, Man Takes Hostages In Rio
  String Of Attacks Rocks Globe: Hague Stabbings Leave Several Injured, Man Takes Hostages In Rio

  During a day where people from around the world join long lines to begin their Christmas shopping, a string of attacks in shopping centers and London’s famous London Bridge have raised the specter of terrorism and a possible retaliation for the killing of Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

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  The string of attacks occurred almost one month to the day after Baghdadi’s murder at the hands of US special forces and one trained military dog.

  The latest, a stabbing attack in the Hague (notoriously the home of the ICC and several other NGOs), has left several people injured (the exact number is unclear) wounded. First-responders arrived at the scene within minutes, a sign that hopefully, casualties will be minimal.

  The attack in the Hague unfurled Friday evening in the Dutch city’s main shopping street, Grote Marktstraat, which was packed with Black Friday shoppers.

  Authorities in the Hague are claiming that the attacks are not “terror related”, or at least don’t appear so at this time, with the caveat that criminal probes of this magnitude often take time and it could take weeks to uncover the truth.

  Steekincident met meerdere gewonden aan de #GroteMarktstraat in #DenHaag. Hulpdiensten zijn ter plaatse. Meer info volgt via dit kanaal.

  — Politie Den Haag eo (@POL_DenHaag) November 29, 2019

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  While this was the second stabbing attack in Europe in a matter of hours, another incident unfolded in the Brazilian city of Rio, as a man armed with a knife held six people hostage at a bar in Central Rio, as a local police Captain confirmed. 

  LAPA | RUA DO RESENDE segue fechada (ocorrência policial). Reflexos na Av. Mem de Sá. Av. República do Paraguai, Rua Texeira de Freitas e Rua do Riachuelo.
  Evite a região da Lapa e opte pela Av. Pres. Vargas, Rua Visconde do Rio Branco ou T. Sta Bárbara. #centro pic.twitter.com/z0iKJqYvZW

  — Centro de Operações Rio (@OperacoesRio) November 29, 2019

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  At 3:34 pm, the first hostage, identified only as Sergio, was released. Another hostage, a woman named Lucia, reportedly the owner of the bar, was released shortly after.

  Back in the Hague, a manhunt continues for the attackers, with officers reportedly looking for the suspect, who was seen wearing a grey track suit and is believed to be between the ages of 45-50, and was described as appearing to be of “North African descent.”

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 11/29/2019 – 15:41

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• Holiday Sales May Be Missing In Action
  Holiday Sales May Be Missing In Action

  Authored by Dave Kranzler via Investment Research Dynamics,

  I’m sure most of you are  inundated with “Black November,” “70% off” and “clearance” email promotions from the usual cast of brick/mortar/online chain retailers. It started with my inbox in October.   This is because retailers are terrified of what could be one of the worst holiday spending seasons in years.

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  The mainstream financial media, planted with soundbites from Wall Street snakeoil salesmen, have already created this year’s “the dog ate my homework” excuse for poor holiday spending with the absurd notion that the period between Thanksgiving and Christmas is shorter this year. 

  Quite frankly, I would not be surprised if many households used Amazon’s Prime day and easy Amazon credit lines offered to buy holiday gifts early this year.

  Speaking of AMZN, it warned that its expected holiday sales would be lower than previous guidance.  And Home Depot lowered its Q4 revenue estimates for the second time in three months.

  Perhaps October retail sales offers a glimpse at what we can expect. The headline retail sales report promoted the idea that retail sales “rebounded” in October (recall September retail sales dropped 3%). October’s retail sales reportedly increased 0.3%. The headline number was rounded up from 0.27%. Compare this to the headline 0.36% CPI. This means that real retail sales in October (i.e. ex-inflation) declined.

  Keep in mind that a survey of more than 5,400 Americans by the Financial Health Network revealed that 70% of households are struggling financially in some capacity. 17% said they can’t maintain a majority or all aspects of their finances. Another 54% said they’re struggling with at least one aspect of financial stability (likely credit card/auto debt). About 20% of middle class workers are spending more than they earn. This study confirms and reinforces other studies I’ve seen showing similar results.

  Core retail sales, which are ex-automobiles and gasoline, increased 0.1%, which was worse than expected. When you think about it, aside from all of the statistical errors from estimating 16 out of 25 categories, the core retail sales ex-inflation was negative. It looks like gasoline sales drove the headline number as it was up 1.1%, which is the result of higher gasoline prices during the month.

  Away from food, “core” discretionary categories suffered rather large declines from September. Clothing was down 1%, sporting goods/hobby/books were down 0.8%, furniture store sales dropped 0.9% and electronics/appliance sales were down 0.4%. Consumers also cut back spending at restaurants and bars, with sales dropping 0.3%.

  The retail sales numbers for October, preceded by the big drop in retail sales in September, reflect and confirm my view that the consumer is “running out road” with the ability to assume more credit card debt for discretionary expenditures. The results of the survey above suggest that a not insignificant percentage of households need credit cards to make ends meet. This chart nicely summarizes the U.S. household financial conditions:

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  I suspect the Census Bureau will do its best to impose “seasonal adjustment” distortions at Trump’s behest in order to put the best possible spin on retail sales. But truth is that a majority of households are struggling with a heavy debt load and with real income after taxes that barely covers non-discretionary expenditures. Do not mistake a rising stock market as an indicator that economy is healthy. Right now the largest component of economic activity at 70% of GDP is terminally ill financially.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 11/28/2019 – 23:00

  Tags

  Business Finance

  

• Mainstream Policy Expert Reveals How He Was Silenced On Syria: "Truth Did Not Matter"
  Mainstream Policy Expert Reveals How He Was Silenced On Syria: “Truth Did Not Matter”

  A mainstream media and academic expert this week issued a rare admission: that pretty much everything the establishment has fed the public on Syria is false or distorted; but it remains that after tragic eight-year long war is slowly coming to a close, new indisputable facts are coming to light. “Truth did not matter at all,” he admits after years of providing commentary for mainstream publications.

  In a lengthy thread on Twitter, counter-terrorism author and assistant professor of political science and public policy at Northeastern University Max Abrahms exposed how he saw the ‘narrative managers’ at work from the inside of the establishment think tank world and media. As his own research came to uncover and document the truth of what was happening in Syria, “the media would excise me and the research from their stories” he revealed. His work in the early years of the war appeared in The New York Times and other major outlets, however, he was increasingly censored and pushed out of a number of platforms for speaking inconvenient truths. 

  Below is his full commentary, written in the wake of the new OPCW leaks which the mainstream is still trying hard to ignore.

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  Every day there are new revelations that the “rebels” were in cahoots not only with Al Qaeda but also ISIS and official reports of Assad using chemical weapons were doctored according to the reports’ own authors.

  Were you ever skeptical that Assad was authorizing chemical weapons attacks when they were the one thing that put his winning the war at risk?

  Authors of the official reports linking him to chemical weapons usage have now supplied evidence that their own reports were doctored.

  When I was interviewed about Syria’s military using chemical weapons, I expressed skepticism as Assad bucked the political science literature by engaging in the one conduct that would reverse his hard-fought victory.

  But the media would excise me and the research from their stories.

  The #1 story should be that authors of the official reports linking Assad to WMD usage have supplied evidence that they were doctored in defiance of the scientific evidence and exploited to push regime change in Damascus, which risked creating the Islamic State war with Russia.

  Until you get how you were duped into supporting regime change in Syria you’ll get duped into supporting other costly ventures to the local population, international stability and our counterterrorism efforts.

  The mainstream narrative of the Syria conflict has imploded.

  Every day there are new revelations that the “rebels” were in cahoots not only with Al Qaeda but also ISIS & official reports of Assad using chemical weapons were doctored according to the reports’ own authors.

  — Max Abrahms (@MaxAbrahms) November 25, 2019

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  The story of doctored WMD reports and Al Qaeda-led rebels must be told.

  What happened in Syria is the American political establishment decided that the ends justify the means. Truth did not matter at all. We were told Assad must go based on WMD reports their own authors say were doctored to support “rebels” who were Al-Qaeda-led and helping ISIS.

  Watch this interview and determine yourself whether you find trustworthy the official report linking Assad to the chlorine attack which was sold in the media as casus belli for toppling Assad and has now been exposed by the fact-finders themselves as doctored.

  If you think politicians, think tanks and media got a lot wrong in the Iraq war wait until you hear about the Syria war.

  If you cheered for another regime change war then it doesn’t matter whether the casus belli lacks evidence. The media is unmoved that multiple scientists who made up the official investigation doubt that the Syrian military was behind the attacks or the use of chlorine at all.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 11/28/2019 – 22:30

  Tags

  Entertainment Culture

  War Conflict

  Politics

  

• A Failure Of Leadership In The Muslim World
  A Failure Of Leadership In The Muslim World

  Authored by James Durso via RealClearWorld.com,

  Bad news about China’s persecution of the Uighurs has been coming thick and fast.

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  In October, the Citizen Power Institute released a report on the use of forced labor. The report finds that up to 1 million imprisoned Uighurs and members of other Muslim ethnic groups have been made to work in China’s cotton value chain, which produces cotton, textiles, and apparel. In November, the New York Times released more than 400 pages of internal Chinese government documents that exposed how China organizes the mass detention of Uighurs.

  On July, 22 countries issued a joint statement criticizing China for “disturbing reports of large-scale arbitrary detentions” and “widespread surveillance and restrictions” of Uighurs and other minorities in the country’s Xinjiang region. The next day, 37 countries, nearly half of them Muslim-majority and none of them democracies, defended China’s human rights record and dismissed the reported detention of up to 2 million Muslims.

  Azeem Ibrahim of the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute has pointed out that the acquiescence of Muslim-majority countries illustrates “’Muslim solidarity’ is a convenient and effective slogan to be thrown at domestic audiences” but, when push comes to a shove from China, you can “forget about the umma.”

  This is a serious issue, not a provocation like Everybody Draw Mohammed  Day. Why are leaders in the Islamic world refusing to take a stand?

  Two reasons stand out immediately.

  First, faith leaders in the Islamic world probably reckon it is futile to chastise the Communist Party of China for actions taken against a non-Han people practicing what the Party sees as an “illegal superstition”. China’s leader, President Xi Jinping, isn’t some Danish cartoonist — there would be consequences for speaking out.

  Continuing in that pragmatic vein, the Saudi Aramco IPO is looking parlous and oil prices are below the $65-per-barrel price Aramco uses to builds its financial assumptions. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, known as MbS, needs money to complete Saudi Vision 2030, but he would prefer that money to have no strings attached to concerns about human rights — so, enter the dragon. China has stepped up as a source of capital as the kingdom tries to shift its economy away from energy exports. Xi recently said China was taking a “strategic high view and long-term perspective,” meaning let’s agree not to talk about Uighurs or Jamal Khashoggi. MbS reciprocated by endorsing China’s policies: “We respect and support China’s rights to take counter-terrorism and de-extremism measures to safeguard national security.”

  And it’s not just the Saudis.

  “Nobody knows nothin’” seems to be the operating principle when someone says “Uighur”.

  Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan initially criticized Beijing, but recently muted his comments. With economic relations stalled with the United States and the European Union, the economy weak, and the U.S. Congress threatening sanctions for Russian defense purchases and Turkey’s incursion into Syria, Turkey will continue its turn east. In June, China’s central bank gave Istanbul a $1 billion cash injection, and in August the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China provided a $3.6 billion loan package for Turkey’s energy and transportation sectors.

  Pakistan’s normally voluble Prime Minister Imran Khan could only say “[f]rankly, I don’t know much about that” when asked about the plight of the Uighurs, but that may be because of China’s planned investment of $62 billion in ports, infrastructure, industry and energy-generation facilities in Pakistan. And while Pakistan’s Islamist militants as a rule are always ready to raise the issue of persecuted Sunnis, on the issue of Xinjiang’s Uighurs all we get is a “deafening silence.”

  Money matters, but it isn’t all about cash. The governments friendly to Beijing know that supporting human rights for Uighurs will lead their own citizens — even worse, their countries’ religious minorities — to demand human rights of their own.

  China-friendly governments may be successfully dealing with some short- or medium-term cash-flow problems, but they are eroding their legitimacy as defenders of the faith. Into the breach may step groups like the separatist East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), which may inspire youth, radicals, and the devout.

  ETIM was designated a terrorist organization in 2002 by the United States and the United Nations. The U.S. designation might have come in exchange for China’s support for the U.S. attack on Iraq. China’s actions have been ETIM’s best recruiting sergeant. If ETIM narrows its target list to Chinese officials and installations, it may find blind eyes being turned as it takes the fight to its enemies in China and ignores the governments in Central and South Asia.

  Uighurs with combat experience in Syria and Afghanistan will want another mission, and fighting is more fun than farming. These new mujahedeen will be ready to fight a Communist regime that suppresses their religion and culture.

  What are some lessons for Washington?  

  First, if the United States thinks a foreign-policy initiative makes sense, despite disapproval from some Muslim countries, press ahead. The  Trump administration may be testing this idea  by moving the American embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, and reversing the U.S. position on the illegality of Israeli settlements on the West Bank.  

  And, if China wants troublemakers like Pakistan as allies, let Beijing have them.

  What should the U.S. do?

  • First, sincerely warn China of the trouble that lies ahead if a serious terrorist campaign is kicked off by ETIM or a likeminded group. Remind them that their policies may lead to a situation wherein nearby countries offer only perfunctory responses to Chinese demands for counter-terrorism assistance, especially if the terrorists only hit Chinese targets. China will ignore any warnings by the Americans, but Washington will know that it tried.  

  • Provide political support for Central Asian countries like Kazakhstan for refusing to return fleeing Uighurs to China, but follow their lead on how much publicity to give the effort. (Use your “inside voice,” America.) If China cancels investments in Central Asian countries as retaliation, support offsetting development assistance from the World Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the Asian Development Bank, and the Islamic Development Bank.

  • Then, consider allowing the 22 Uighurs who were held at the Guantanamo Bay detainment camp but found to be “no longer enemy combatants” to settle in the United States. It’s likely the Chinese snookered the Americans in the aftermath of 9-11 by portraying all Uighur activists as terrorists, which landed 22 of them in Gitmo for over a decade. In 2009, Congress opposed President Barack Obama’s plan to resettle two Uighurs in the United States. Ten years later, it’s time for Congress to show that its concern for the Uighurs is more than press-release deep.

  • Highlight that the United States continues to be the world’s leading advocate of religious freedom for all, even as the Organization for Islamic Cooperation bent to China’s will and commended it for “providing care to its Muslim citizens”.

  • Last, continue work on a trade deal with China, while continuing to sanction Chinese entities that use forced Muslim labor. Then, deal or not, on November 4, 2020, increase the pressure even more.  

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 11/28/2019 – 22:00

  Tags

  Politics

  

• Stuffed? Woman Needs Her Ass Amputated After "Enhancing" It With Illegal Injections
  Stuffed? Woman Needs Her Ass Amputated After “Enhancing” It With Illegal Injections

  Model Courtney Barnes may have a little less room this Thanksgiving to stuff her turkey, cranberry sauce, mashed potatoes and dessert.

  That’s because she has been told by doctors she may need to have her entire ass amputated, after “enhancing” it with illegal injections, according to the NY Post. 

  Barnes, who is known as Miss Miami, said on the E! show “Botched” that she is desperate to get her body back after the injections. But Doctors told her that in order to fix her ass, it may have to be amputated. 

  “Amputate the whole booty? I’m not doing that. No, I’m not doing that. I’m not amputating butts,” she responded. 

  She had the illegal fillers injected when she was 22 years old and working as a dancer in a club. 

  She said: “When I was in college I got a job dancing at a club. The first night, after really not making no money on the stage, there was a dancer who walked up to me and she told me that I needed some more booty if I wanted to make some more money. That’s when I found out about the injections that gave me my big booty problems.”

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  She continued: “So I made the appointment and she showed up at my hotel room. She told me she worked for a cosmetic surgeon and that’s how she was able to get her hands on what she needed. I asked her why she was doing it outside of the office and that’s when she told me the procedure was illegal. It’s foolish, definitely,  but all I wanted was a big booty.”

  She underwent three rounds of injections over a year, but that wasn’t enough. And it was during the fourth round that problems began, she said. 

  Barnes said: “This time I showed up at her house to have my injections, but after leaving my injections were beginning to leak out of my butt. My butt had so many dimples so I called the lady who injected me immediately. She told me it probably could be fixed with a few more shots and that’s how round number five got started.”

  She continued: “That round of injections, it seemed like it only made my butt bigger. She did not fill in the holes. Then number six happened. It made it a bit worse. There was nothing I could do to fix my butt. After six rounds of butt injections, I believe I spent about seven or eight thousand dollars to get me right here, with these big booty problems.”

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  Barnes has embraced the ass implants, posting photos to her nearly 1 million Instagram followers and writing an Autobiography called “I Am Not My Body — But I Wanted a Bigger Behind,” which warns young women about the dangers of getting implants. 

  Dr. Terry Dubrow examined Barnes but says he can’t find where her old ass begins and her new one starts. 

  Dubrow commented on the show: “Whoa, I’ve never felt anything like this before. Because the masses are so superficially located, you absolutely can’t remove all of them. Unless you amputate … the whole booty.”

  And what would this feel good story be without a silver lining? Dubrow concluded: “The good news is that the person didn’t seem to inject much of it into the muscle — and that’s how people die. You get into the blood vessel of the buttock muscle and it goes right into the main blood vessel that goes back to your heart and your lungs. That’s how they’re killing people, so it’s very good that you don’t have that problem.”

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 11/28/2019 – 21:44

• Here Are More US Tech Giants Propping Up China's Vast Surveillance State
  Here Are More US Tech Giants Propping Up China’s Vast Surveillance State

  A bombshell follow-up report to a major document leak which confirmed and detailed China’s vast Uyghur Muslim Xinjiang prison network and system for monitoring communications and whereabouts has named names. Names that is, of US tech giants that are actually aiding and abetting China’s multibillion-dollar surveillance industry being used to impose a total electronic police state on the communist country. And it’s not just Google and IBM, but a growing list of recognizable names. 

  “U.S. companies, including Seagate Technology PLC, Western Digital Corp. and Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co., have nurtured, courted and profited from China’s surveillance industry,” the scathing report begins. “Several have been involved since the industry’s infancy.”

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  These American companies gained greater scrutiny after the US Treasury recently targeted up to eight Chinese surveillance companies, blocking their ability to export US technology through which they could help the Chinese state in committing human rights and individual privacy violations. This included a federal ban on US agencies purchasing video surveillance equipment manufactured by Dahua, Hikvision, and Hytera Communications. 

  American companies over recent years have competed to enter China’s booming $10BN+ surveillance market, and also take advantage of Chinese companies’ rapidly progressing technology.

  Stunningly, the WSJ investigation finds that “Of 37 Chinese firms singled out last November by the Beijing-backed China Security and Protection Industry Association for outstanding contributions to the country’s surveillance industry, 17 have publicly disclosed financing, commercial or supply-chain relationships with U.S. technology companies.” And further, “Several had multiple connections.”

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  Demonstrating the ‘indirect’ relationship between US companies and Chinese state surveillance, via the WSJ: “Hikvision, China’s largest surveillance systems maker, has bought technology from U.S. firms directly and through third parties. Hikvision was placed on the U.S. entity list in October, limiting some of the technology it can buy from the U.S. American companies said they comply with the law and export rules, and declined to comment on whether sales continue.”

  For example, the report details Hewlett Packard Enterprise owns 49% of New H3C Technologies Co. Ltd. This Chinese company is well-known as providing internet control systems to Chinese security services. “According to company marketing materials, one end customer for its switches is Aksu, a Xinjiang city that conducts broad surveillance of residents in public spaces. Satellite images suggest the city is home to multiple internment camps,” the report concludes. 

  And in another alarming example, China’s state-owned Hikvision receives a steady supply of programmable chips from San Jose, Calif.-based Xilinx Inc., which prompted a Xilinx response saying it doesn’t control or limit how its customers use its products, but takes human rights allegations “seriously”. 

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  There are additional multiple instances of American companies’ operations and products becoming deeply entwined with that Chinese surveillance companies, such as chips and hard drives developed and produced in California being central to some of US-sanctioned Hikvision’s systems. 

  But is anyone surprised? Likely such major US companies as Hewlett Packard — its products long spread around the globe — will continue to seek a piece of the lucrative Chinese market while only claiming an ‘indirect’ relationship with Beijing’s growing police surveillance state, claiming further ‘it’s out of our hands’ what they do with American technology. 

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 11/28/2019 – 21:30

  Tags

  Business Finance

  

• Rise Of The Superbugs: Bacteria Are Outsmarting Humans. Will They Eventually Kill Us All?
  Rise Of The Superbugs: Bacteria Are Outsmarting Humans. Will They Eventually Kill Us All?

  Authored by Dagny Taggart via The Organic Prepper blog,

  It is getting hard to keep track of all the recalls and outbreaks associated with foodborne illness lately. In the last month, apples, vegetable products, meat, and fish have all been recalled for possible Listeria contamination. In the same time frame, a Salmonella outbreak that has been linked to ground beef has been making the rounds, and an E. coli outbreak has been linked with packaged salad products (romaine lettuce is once again the suspect).

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  What is the reason for all of these recalls and outbreaks? Cat Ellis summed it up in the article Here’s Why There Are SO MANY Food Recalls Lately:

  Our centralized, industrialized food system is at the heart of the increase in food contamination and recalls. Modern farming and modern food manufacturing methods are breeding grounds for bacteria. (source)

  To make matters worse, superbugs are rapidly becoming a serious threat, and we are running out of ways to kill them. Several new studies and reports shed light on just how dire the situation is.

  In the future, superbugs will kill millions every year.

  Earlier this year, the World Health Organization (WHO) warned that by the year 2050, 10 million people worldwide could die each year from antibiotic-resistant bacteria. Currently, the WHO estimates that 700,000 people globally die from infection with drug-resistant microbes every year. At that point, these “superbugs” will have surpassed cancer, heart disease, and diabetes to become the main cause of death in the human race.

  Superbugs are bacteria that have developed resistance to one or more classes of antibiotics, rendering those antibiotics less effective in treating infections. They are also known as antimicrobial-resistant bacteria (ARB).

  One of the reasons antibiotic resistance is a growing problem is their widespread use in animals raised for food.

  According to a recent study published in the journal Science, 

  There is a clear increase in the number of resistant bacterial strains occurring in chickens and pigs.

  Globally, 73% of all antimicrobials sold on Earth are used in animals raised for food. A growing body of evidence has linked this practice with the rise of antimicrobial-resistant infections, not just in animals but also in humans. Beyond potentially serious consequences for public health, the reliance on antimicrobials to meet demand for animal protein is a likely threat to the sustainability of the livestock industry, and thus to the livelihood of farmers around the world. (source).

  Certain types of infections pose significant risks.

  The CDC recently published a report on Antibiotic/Antimicrobial Resistance, which revealed that more than 2.8 million antibiotic-resistant infections occur in the U.S. each year, and more than 35,000 people die as a result. In addition, 223,900 cases of Clostridioides difficile occurred in 2017 and at least 12,800 people died.

  Clostridioides difficile (C.diff) is of special concern because it causes a dangerous infection that is linked to antibiotic use. It can cause deadly diarrhea when antibiotics kill beneficial bacteria in the digestive system that normally keep it under control. When the C. diff. illnesses and deaths are added, the annual U.S. toll of all these pathogens is more than 3 million infections and 48,000 deaths.

  C. diff., drug-resistant gonorrhea, and carbapenem-resistant enterobacteriaceae (CRE) are known as “nightmare bacteria” because they pose a triple threat. They are resistant to all or nearly all antibiotics, they kill up to half of patients who get bloodstream infections from them, and the bacteria can transfer their antibiotic resistance to other related bacteria, potentially making the other bacteria untreatable.

  Candida auris, a dangerous fungal infection that preys on people with weakened immune systems, is quietly spreading across the globe, as we reported earlier this year:

  The CDC is concerned about C. aruis for three main reasons, according to the agency’s website.

  It is often multidrug-resistant, meaning that it is resistant to multiple antifungal drugs commonly used to treat Candida infections.

  It is difficult to identify with standard laboratory methods, and it can be misidentified in labs without specific technology. Misidentification may lead to inappropriate management.

  It has caused outbreaks in healthcare settings. For this reason, it is important to quickly identify C. auris in a hospitalized patient so that healthcare facilities can take special precautions to stop its spread.

  As of August 31, 2019, 806 confirmed cases of C. auris have been reported in the US. Beyond the reported clinical case counts, an additional 1642 patients have been found to be colonized with C. auris. While exact figures are not available (many infected people had other serious health issues that contributed to their deaths), an estimated 30-60% of those infected with C. auris die. (source)

  One form of Acinetobacter, a group of bacteria commonly found in the environment (like in soil and water) has developed resistance to nearly all antibiotics:

  Acinetobacter baumannii can cause infections in the blood, urinary tract, and lungs (pneumonia), or in wounds in other parts of the body. It can also “colonize” or live in a patient without causing infections or symptoms, especially in respiratory secretions (sputum) or open wounds.

  These bacteria are constantly finding new ways to avoid the effects of the antibiotics used to treat the infections they cause. Antibiotic resistance occurs when the germs no longer respond to the antibiotics designed to kill them. If they develop resistance to the group of antibiotics called carbapenems, they become carbapenem-resistant. When resistant to multiple antibiotics, they’re multidrug-resistant. Carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter are usually multidrug-resistant. (source)

  Pork products recently tested positive for antibiotic-resistant bacteria.

  Pigs are one of the most intensively farmed animals in the world, according to a new report from nonprofit World Animal Protection. The organization tested pork products sold in two well-known national retail chains in the US, including Walmart.

  Here is an excerpt from the report’s summary:

  A total of 160 samples of pork were purchased from several stores of Walmart and a competing national retailer over a period of several days in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States. The samples, 80 from each retailer, were tested by a laboratory at Texas Tech University (TTU) in 32 batches of five samples each for the presence of bacteria commonly found in pigs and pork in the U.S.: E. coli, Salmonella, Enterococcus, and Listeria. Bacteria isolated from the batches were then tested for susceptibility to antibiotics.

  According to the data provided to World Animal Protection by the laboratory, a total of 51 bacteria were isolated from 30 batches including: 

  Enterococcus in 27 batches

  E. coli in 14 batches

  Salmonella in six batches

  Listeria in four batches

  Batches of samples from Walmart were far more likely to contain a detectable presence of two or more of the bacteria in a single batch than the other chain, and all batches that tested positive for three or more bacteria were obtained at Walmart. 

  Antibiotic susceptibility testing conducted by the laboratory revealed that 41of the 51 bacteria isolated from the pork samples were resistant to at least one class of medically important antibiotic. Twenty-one of the bacteria were multi-drug-resistant, meaning they were resistant to three or more classes, with three being resistant to six classes of medically important antibiotics. 

  The majority of multi-drug-resistant strains were isolated from Walmart sample batches, including all strains resistant to four or more drug classes. All seven strains resistant to Highest Priority Critically Important Antimicrobials (HPCIA) were in Walmart samples. (source)

  Several new studies show just how serious the situation is.

  A study published in September 2019 found that bacteria can change shape inside our bodies to avoid antibiotics. Here’s an excerpt from an article Katarzyna Mickiewicz, the lead study author, wrote:

  Some of the ways that bacteria become resistant to antibiotics is through changes in the bacteria’s genome. For example, bacteria can pump the antibiotics out, or they can break the antibiotics down. They can also stop growing and divide, which makes them difficult to spot for the immune system.

  However, our research has focused on another little known method that bacteria use to become antibiotic resistant. We have directly shown that bacteria can “change shape” in the human body to avoid being targeted by antibiotics – a process that requires no genetic changes for the bacteria to continue growing. (source)

  Researchers have found a new survival mechanism for a commonly known type of bacteria. It can send out warning signals and thus make sure that other bacteria escape ‘dangers’ such as antibiotics, according to another new study:

  Some bacteria develop resistance to otherwise effective treatment with antibiotics. Therefore, researchers are trying to develop new types of antibiotics that can fight the bacteria, and at the same time trying to make the current treatment with antibiotics more effective.

  Researchers are now getting closer to this goal with a type of bacteria called Pseudomonas aeruginosa, which is notorious for infecting patients with the lung disease cystic fibrosis. In a new study, researchers found that the bacteria send out warning signals to their conspecifics when attacked by antibiotics or the viruses called bacteriophages which kill bacteria.

  ‘We can see in the laboratory that the bacteria simply swim around the ‘dangerous area’ with antibiotics or bacteriophages. When they receive the warning signal from their conspecifics, you can see in the microscope that they are moving in a neat circle around. It is a smart survival mechanism for the bacteria. If it turns out that the bacteria use the same evasive manoeuvre when infecting humans, it may help explain why some bacterial infections cannot be effectively treated with antibiotics’, says researcher Nina Molin Høyland-Kroghsbo, Assistant Professor at the Department of Veterinary and Animal Sciences and part of the research talent programme UCPH-Forward. (source)

  Antibiotic-resistant strains of Salmonella are on the uptick, according to a study published a few days ago. Here’s an explanation from a press release titled The Nature of Salmonella is Changing – and It’s Meaner:

  “If you get a salmonella infection that is resistant to antibiotics today, you are more likely to be hospitalized longer, and it will take you longer to recover,” said Shannon Manning, MSU Foundation professor in the Department of Microbiology and Molecular Genetics and senior author of the study. “We need better detection methods at the clinical level to identify resistant pathogens earlier so we can treat them with the right drugs the first time.”

  Losing a day or more to misdiagnosis or improper treatment allows symptoms to get worse. Doctors might kill off a subpopulation of bacteria that are susceptible, but the ones that are resistant grow stronger, she added. (source)

  Scientists are exploring alternatives to antibiotics.

  In response to the growing number of bugs that are drug-resistant, scientists are learning to identify and isolate them in hopes of preventing large outbreaks. They are also making efforts to tighten up the use of antibiotics in an effort to slow the development of resistant strains, but many experts say it is too late, and that these actions will only buy us a little time.

  There isn’t much incentive to develop new antibiotics, mainly because the development of one new antibiotic costs about $2 billion and takes about 10 years, and the likelihood of drug companies making a profit on such drugs is low.

  An international team of researchers recently announced, however, that they have discovered a “novel peptide” they call Darobactin that attacks gram-negative bacteria:

  More and more bacterial pathogens of infectious diseases become resistant to customary antibiotics. Typical hospital germs such as Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae have become resistant to the most – and in some cases even all – currently available antibiotics. Their additional external membrane makes these bacteria difficult to attack. It protects the bacteria particularly well by preventing many substances from getting into the cell interior. Especially for the treatment of diseases caused by these so-called gram negative bacteria, there is a lack of new active substances. An international team of researchers, with the participation of scientists from Justus Liebig University Giessen (JLU), has now discovered a novel peptide, that attacks gram negative bacteria at a previously unknown site of action.

  Darobactin exhibited an excellent effect in the case of infections with both wild-type, as well as antibiotic-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae strains. Thus, Darobactin presents a very promising lead substance for the development of a new antibiotic. (source)

  Another new study found that copper hospital beds in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) harbored an average of 95% fewer bacteria than conventional hospital beds, and maintained these low-risk levels throughout patients’ stay in hospital:

  Knowledge of copper’s antimicrobial properties dates back to ancient Ayurveda, when drinking water was often stored in copper vessels to prevent illness. In the modern medical era, numerous studies have noted copper’s antimicrobial properties.

  However, until recently, no-one had designed acute–care hospital beds that enabled all high risk surfaces to be encapsulated in copper. “Based on the positive results of previous trials, we worked to get a fully encapsulated copper bed produced,” said Dr. Schmidt. “We needed to convince manufacturers that the risk to undertake this effort was worthwhile.”

  This in situ study compared the relative contamination of intensive care unit (ICU) beds outfitted with copper rails, footboards, and bed controls to traditional hospital beds with plastic surfaces. Nearly 90 percent of the bacterial samples taken from the tops of the plastic rails had concentrations of bacteria that exceed levels considered safe.

  “The findings indicate that antimicrobial copper beds can assist infection control practitioners in their quest to keep healthcare surfaces hygienic between regular cleanings, thereby reducing the potential risk of transmitting bacteria associated with healthcare associated infections,” said Dr. Schmidt.

  With the advent of copper encapsulated hospital beds, dividends will likely be paid in improved patient outcomes, lives saved, and healthcare dollars saved. (source)

  Earlier this year, a study found that cannabidiol (commonly known as CBD) is remarkably effective at killing a wide range of Gram-positive bacteria, including types of staph and strep bacteria, as well as strains that had become resistant to other antibiotic drugs.

  In a press release, study lead author Dr. Mark Blaskovich, of The University of Queensland’s Institute for Molecular Bioscience’s Centre for Superbug Solutions in Brisbane, Australia, said of the findings:

  “Given cannabidiol’s documented anti-inflammatory effects, existing safety data in humans, and potential for varied delivery routes, it is a promising new antibiotic worth further investigation. The combination of inherent antimicrobial activity and potential to reduce damage caused by the inflammatory response to infections is particularly attractive.”

  Cannabidiol had a similar potency to established antibiotics such as vancomycin and daptomycin, and did not lose effectiveness after extended treatment.

  Importantly, the drug retained its activity against bacteria that have become highly resistant to other common antibiotics. Under extended exposure conditions that lead to resistance against the antibiotics vancomycin or daptomycin, cannabidiol did not lose effectiveness.

  It was also effective at disrupting biofilms, a physical form of bacteria growth that leads to difficult-to-treat infections. (source)

  This research was not the first to demonstrate CBD’s bacteria-fighting properties. Two previous studies showed that CBD may be effective against a killer infection: Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus Aureus, or MRSA. While research on CBD as a treatment for serious infections is in the early stages, the mounting scientific evidence showing the compound’s powerful antifungal, antiviral, and antibacterial properties is promising.

  This might be a good time to grab a copy of Prepping for a Pandemic: Life-Saving Supplies, Skills and Plans for Surviving an Outbreak by Cat Ellis – it can help you prepare for the impending bacterial apocalypse.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 11/28/2019 – 21:00

  Tags

  Health Medical Pharma

  

• Iran, China, & Russia Gear Up For Unprecedented War Games In "Message To The World"
  Iran, China, & Russia Gear Up For Unprecedented War Games In “Message To The World”

  Just as Americans were gearing up for Thanksgiving, on Wednesday Iranian officials announced they will send a “message to the world” by holding unprecedented war games with partner forces Russia in China in the Indian Ocean.

  Semi-official Mehr news agency cited Rear Admiral Hossein Khanzadi on Wedneday to reveal the “mass war drills” will held at some point next month or the “near future” in a historic first, and as the three unlikely allies find themselves facing ramped up Washington sanctions and pressure. 

  He went on to explain such high level cooperation among powerful enemies to the US will send a glaring and unmistakable message to the world: “The joint wargame between Iran, Russia, and China, which will hopefully be conducted next month, carries the same message to the world, that these three countries have reached a meaningful strategic point in their relations, with regard to their shared and non-shared interests, and by non-shared I mean the respect we have for one another’s national interests.”

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  Adm. Khanzadi described further: “When we talk about joint wargames, we are talking about two or more countries with a high level of relations in various political, economic and social fields, which culminate in cooperation in the military sector, with wargames usually being the highest level of such cooperation.”

  “A joint wargame between several countries, whether on land, at sea, or in the air, indicates a remarkable expansion of cooperation among them,” the naval commander said.

  This comes after a summer where simmering tensions with the West boiled over into a full blown ‘tanker war’ scenario, as well as the alleged Iranian-ordered drone and missile attack on Saudi Aramco facilities in mid-September which briefly took out the kingdom’s ability to process crude oil. 

  “The wargame seeks to deliver this message to the world that any kind of security at sea must include the interests of all concerned countries. We do not condone the kind of security that only caters to the benefits of one specific country at a specific time and which disregards the security of others,” Khanzadi said.

  “Seas, which are used as a platform for conducting global commerce, cannot be exclusively beneficial to certain powers,” he added, likely in reference to Washington’s latest attempts to establish a joint maritime security force to patrol the Gulf against ‘Iran threats’. 

  Russia has historically cooperated in naval exercises with Iran on the Caspian Sea in local maneuvers; but an expansive exercise which includes China will set a major precedent.

  Currently, a Europe-led maritime mission is gaining traction in the Gulf, led by France and headquartered in Dubai. Iran has expressed that it alone is responsible for safeguarding the vital Strait of Hormuz oil passageway, but has also recognized that a European-led force (involving JCPOA partners) is more acceptable than any American military or naval initiative. 

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 11/28/2019 – 20:30

  Tags

  Politics

  

• DOJ Watchdog Expected To Downgrade 'Spying' On Trump Campaign To 'Typical Law Enforcement Activities'
  DOJ Watchdog Expected To Downgrade ‘Spying’ On Trump Campaign To ‘Typical Law Enforcement Activities’

  In late September, RealClearInvestigations‘ Paul Sperry suggested that Inspector General Michael Horowitz – tasked with investigating and exposing wrongdoing at the highest levels – was feared to be pulling punches in order to protect establishment darlings in his upcoming report on the Russia investigation.

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  Now we learn that Horowitz, who volunteered on several Democratic political campaigns while in college and is married to a former liberal political activist, Obama donor and CNN employee, is expected to conclude that the FBI didn’t spy on the Trump campaign.

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  Instead, when longtime FBI / CIA asset Stephan Halper and his undercover FBI ‘assistant’ named “Azra Turk” befriended George Papadopoulos, it was nothing more than “typical law enforcement activities,” according  the New York Times.

  Mr. Horowitz found no evidence that Mr. Halper tried to infiltrate the Trump campaign itself, the people familiar with the draft report said, such as by seeking inside campaign information or a role in the organization. The F.B.I. also never directed him to do so, former officials said. Instead, Mr. Halper focused on eliciting information from Mr. Page and Mr. Papadopoulos about their ties to Russia.

  …

  Mr. Trump and his allies have pointed to some of the investigative steps the F.B.I. took as evidence of spying, though they were typical law enforcement activities. –NYT

  Recall that the Obama administration had paid Halper over $1 million over a several years, with nearly half of it surrounding the 2016 election.

  The FBI never tried to place informants inside the Trump campaign. They only ran informants to solicit information from people who worked for the campaign. Is it just me, or does this seem like a distinction without a difference. https://t.co/hOVEiLdgyq

  — Eli Lake (@EliLake) November 27, 2019

  NYT: The FBI never did X. Never ever. Except those two times… https://t.co/f9AcujwtEr pic.twitter.com/uZlFxPho1f

  — Byron York (@ByronYork) November 27, 2019

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The report is also expected to conclude that Maltese professor Joseph Mifsud – who fed Papadopoulos the rumor that Russia had dirt on Hillary Clinton – is not an FBI informant. Mifsud, a self-described member of the Clinton Foundation, has been painted by Western media as a Russian asset.

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  Except, nobody claimed Mifsud was an FBI informant. As The Conservative Treehouse notes, “The concern has always been Mifsud was a western intelligence asset, perhaps CIA.”

  Moreover, Horowitz will conclude that while the FBI was ‘careless and unprofessional’ in pursuing a wiretap on Trump campaign adviser Carter Page, and that a ‘front-line lawyer’ Kevin Clinesmith, 37, fabricated evidence to support a FISA spy warrant renewal against Page, that the underlying justification to go after page remained intact.

  In other slaps on the wrist, Horowitz is expected to criticize DOJ official Bruce Ohr for failing to inform his bosses about his extensive contacts with ‘Steele Dossier’ author Christopher Steele.

  And the icing on the cake – last week The Times also reported that while Horowitz will criticize the FBI for how they handled the Trump investigation, “he made no finding of politically biased actions by top officials Mr. Trump has vilified like the former F.B.I. director James B. Comey.”

  NYtimes did a story on Horowitz report. I warned folks many times about Horowitz. Turns out I was right.
  “ report debunks a series of conspiracy theories/insinuations about the F.B.I. that Mr. Trump & his allies have put forward over the past
  2 years “..https://t.co/r0f2mP34GH

  — Christian Lamar (@christianllamar) November 25, 2019

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Horowitz gave Comey, McCabe, Strzok, Yates, Boente and Rosenstein a clean bill of health. No wrongdoing.

  Don’t expect Durham to charge anyone because if he did the Department of Justice would be contradicting itself.

  Clinesmith guy is low hanging fruit. No big players charged.

  — Christian Lamar (@christianllamar) November 25, 2019

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  No wonder Comey and team have been so smug!

  The report is expected December 9, while Horowitz is scheduled to testify in front of the Senate days later.

  I’m at the “abolish the FBI” stage of grief. https://t.co/I22PmMwih1

  — Jubal E. Harshaw (@alimhaider) November 28, 2019

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jshttps://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsOf course, while Horowitz may or may not give key FBI officials a pass in his report, its only one component of the ongoing efforts by the DOJ.

  16) The media will use the IG report to paint the narrative that no one of consequence will be prosecuted. They’ll conflate the responsibilities of IG Horowitz and US Attorney Durham, and claim that Horowitz’s recommendations are what really matter.

  — Praying Medic (@prayingmedic) November 28, 2019

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 11/28/2019 – 20:30

  Tags

  Politics

  

• How Much Energy Do Americans Use On Thanksgiving?
  How Much Energy Do Americans Use On Thanksgiving?

  Authored by Julianne Geiger via OilPrice.com,

  This Thanksgiving, Americans will suck up 350 gigawatts of electricity – equivalent to the entire world’s nuclear power capacity in 2012 – making turkeys. 

  So, while we spend time being thankful this Thursday as we gather around the dinner table with family and friends, we should take a moment to extend that thanks to the energy that will be consumed making the turkey and all the trimmings.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  But you might be surprised to know that Americans consume far less energy on Thanksgiving than on just any old Thursday – despite the fact that turkeys take nearly all night in the oven to cook.

  Thanksgiving by the numbers

  Size Matters

  Americans aren’t the only ones with a weight problem; turkeys are getting a bit too big for their britches, too. The average Thanksgiving turkey size in 2019 is 30 pounds! That’s one big bird, and more than double from the 13 pound average sold in the 1930s. The fact that turkeys have bulged into enormous proportions means that it takes longer to cook. A 30-pound bird (stuffed, or course, because who doesn’t like in-the-bird stuffing?) can take 6.25 hours to cook in a 350° oven. The unstuffed equivalent takes about 1.25 hours less time to roast.

  The Electric Cost of Roasting Each Tom

  We did the math, and the average electric oven (non-convection) of the 2000-2400-watt variety will chew through a little over 12 kWh of electricity to cook that tom for 6 hours. At an average cost of 13.3 cents per kwh for electricity in the United States, turkey cookers will pay about $1.60 for the electricity to cook their birds (a couple of pennies more if you keep peeking at it while its cooking).

  All Together Now

  Americans will consume a staggering 46,000,000 turkeys this Thanksgiving. At 12 kWh each, that’s 552,000,000 kWh—for a single meal. That’s surely a large number.

  Now, not everyone has an electric oven, so there’s that. About 63% of American homes have electric ovens, according to 2018 EIA data (with 33% using natural gas and 5% using propane), so this 552,000,000 kWh can be reduced to just 347,760,000 kWh. This could also be expressed as 347 gigawatts. That’s the equivalent of all the nuclear power capacity of the entire world in 2012, according to the IAEA, or the entire coal capacity installed in America in 2011.

  Gobble it up!

  But fret not. You can eat your turkey in good conscience—you’re actually doing your part to save the environment by eating the turkey. And here’s why:

  An estimated 88% of all Americans eat turkey on Thanksgiving. There are 327,000,000 people living in America, so this means that 287,760,000 people eat turkey on Thanksgiving—but only 46,000,000 of those turkey eaters have the dual role of turkey eater and turkey roaster.

  That means that the remaining 241,760,000 people in America are your freeloading family members that are coming to your house to eat your turkey. And if those people are all at your house to eat your turkey, what are they not doing that they would be doing on any other day? Cooking, of course!

  So, while cooking a turkey may seem an electrical extravagance, people are consolidating, so it actually is more of an energy savings than an indulgence, because fewer people are cooking that day—a lot fewer.

  Other Thanksgiving Day energy considerations

  Also, while families are together on this day waiting for the turkey to be done, fewer TVs are playing the requisite football games. Less energy.

  More people are traveling. More energy. According to Gas Buddy, 65% of Americans travel by car. Gasoline inventories in the US rose last week, but gasoline prices are holding pretty steady compared to the last three thanksgivings.

  Other energy is consumed in greater quantities on Thanksgiving as well, for preparing the rest of the holiday feast such as pumpkin pie, green bean casserole and mashed potatoes—three very critical Thanksgiving must-haves. All these trimmings likely add another couple million kWh to the energy draw for Thanksgiving.

  Residential heating. Less energy. As people are grouped into fewer abodes on Thanksgiving Day, heating sources are turned down or off while they stay with family—sometimes for days if they have traveled significant distances. This decreases the amount of energy used for heating.

  Estimates are that energy usage typically drops 5-10% on Thanksgiving Day, compared to the November average, all thanks to that delicious turkey. And the estimated savings of that energy could amount to more than $2 billion in energy bills. 

  So, with conscience clear, travel to visit your family. Roast that bird. Eat well and be merry. Your overindulgence on Thanksgiving Day will balance out in the end, saving more electricity than you consume. 

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 11/28/2019 – 20:00

  Tags

  Environment

  

• Doug Casey On The Destruction Of The Dollar
  Doug Casey On The Destruction Of The Dollar

  Authored by Doug Casey via InternationalMan.com,

  “Inflation” occurs when the creation of currency outruns the creation of real wealth it can bid for… It isn’t caused by price increases; rather, it causes price increases.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Inflation is not caused by the butcher, the baker, or the auto maker, although they usually get blamed. On the contrary, by producing real wealth, they fight the effects of inflation. Inflation is the work of government alone, since government alone controls the creation of currency.

  In a true free-market society, the only way a person or organization can legitimately obtain wealth is through production. “Making money” is no different from “creating wealth,” and money is nothing but a certificate of production. In our world, however, the government can create currency at trivial cost, and spend it at full value in the marketplace. If taxation is the expropriation of wealth by force, then inflation is its expropriation by fraud.

  To inflate, a government needs complete control of a country’s legal money. This has the widest possible implications, since money is much more than just a medium of exchange. Money is the means by which all other material goods are valued. It represents, in an objective way, the hours of one’s life spent in acquiring it. And if enough money allows one to live life as one wishes, it represents freedom as well. It represents all the good things one hopes to have, do, and provide for others. Money is life concentrated.

  As the state becomes more powerful and is expected to provide more resources to selected groups, its demand for funds escalates. Government naturally prefers to avoid imposing more taxes as people become less able (or willing) to pay them. It runs greater budget deficits, choosing to borrow what it needs. As the market becomes less able (or willing) to lend it money, it turns to inflation, selling ever greater amounts of its debt to its central bank, which pays for the debt by printing more money.

  As the supply of currency rises, it loses value relative to other things, and prices rise. The process is vastly more destructive than taxation, which merely dissipates wealth. Inflation undermines and destroys the basis for valuing all goods relative to others and the basis for allocating resources intelligently. It creates the business cycle and causes the resulting misallocations and distortions in the economy.

  We know the old saw “The rich get richer, and the poor get poorer.” No one ever said life had to be fair, but usually there is no a priori reason why the rich must get richer. In a free-market society the sayings “Shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves in three generations” and “A fool and his money are soon parted” might be better descriptions of reality. We do not live in a free-market society, however.

  The rich and the poor do have a tendency to draw apart as a society becomes more bureaucratic, but not because of any cosmic law. It’s a consequence of any highly politicized system. Government, to paraphrase Willie Sutton, is where the money is. The bigger government becomes, the more effort the rich, and those who want to get that way, will put into making the government do things their way.

  Only the rich can afford the legal counsel it takes to weave and dodge through the laws that restrict the masses. The rich can afford the accountants to chart a path through loopholes in the tax laws. The rich have the credit to borrow and thereby profit from inflation. The rich can pay to influence how the government distorts the economy, so that the distortions are profitable to them.

  The point is not that rich people are bad guys (the political hacks who cater to them are a different question). It is just that in a heavily regulated, highly taxed, and inflationary society, there’s a strong tendency for the rich to get richer at the expense of the poor, who are hurt by the same actions of the government.

  Always, and without exception, the most socialistic, or centrally planned, economies have the most unequal distribution of wealth. In those societies the unprincipled become rich, and the rich stay that way, through political power. In free societies, the rich can get richer only by providing goods and services others want at a price they can afford.

  As inflation gets worse, there will be a growing public outcry for government to do something, anything, about it.

  People will join political action committees, lobbying groups, and political parties in hopes of gaining leverage to impose their will on the country at large, ostensibly for its own good.

  Possible government “solutions” will include wage and price controls, credit controls, restrictions on changing jobs, controls on withdrawing money from bank accounts, import and export restrictions, restrictions on the use of cash to prevent tax evasion, nationalization, even martial law—almost anything is possible. None of these “solutions” addresses the root cause—state intervention in the economy. Each will just make things worse rather than better.

  What these solutions all share is their political nature; in order to work they require that some people be forced to obey the orders of others.

  Whether you or I or a taxi driver on the street thinks a particular solution is good or not is irrelevant. All of the problems that are just beginning to crash down around society’s head (e.g., a bankrupt Social Security system, federally protected banks that are bankrupt, a monetary system gone haywire) used to be solutions, and they must have seemed “good” at the time, otherwise they’d never have been adopted.

  The real problem is not what is done but rather how it is done: that is, through the political process or through the free market. The difference is that between coercion and voluntarism. It’s also the difference between getting excited, frustrated, and beating your head against a wall and taking positive action to improve your own standard of living, to live life the way you like it, and, by your own example, to influence society in the direction that you’d like to see it take—but without asking the government to hold a gun to anyone’s head.

  Political action can change things. Russians in the ’20s, Germans in the ’30s, Chinese in the ’40s, Cubans in the ’50s, Congolese in the ’60s, South Vietnamese and Cambodians in the ’70s, then Rhodesians, Bosnians, Rwandans, and Venezuelans today are among those who certainly discovered it can. It’s just that the changes usually aren’t very constructive.

  That’s the nature of government; it doesn’t create wealth, it only allocates what others have created. More typically, it either dissipates wealth or misallocates it, because it acts in ways that are politically productive (i.e., that gratify and enhance the power of politicians) rather than economically productive (i.e., that allow individuals to satisfy their desires in the ways they prefer).

  It’s irresponsible to base your own life on what hundreds of millions of other people and their rulers may or may not do. The essence of being a free person is to be causative over your own actions and destiny, not to be the effect of others. You can’t control what others will do, but you can control yourself.

  If you’re counting on other people, or political solutions of some type, most likely it will make you unwary and complacent, secure in the hope that “they” know what they’re doing and you needn’t get yourself all flustered with worries about the collapse of the economy.

  *  *  *

  Whether it’s groceries, medical care, tuition, or rent, it seems the cost of everything is rising. It’s an established trend in motion that is accelerating, and now approaching a breaking point. At the same time, the world is facing a severe crisis on multiple fronts. Gold is just about the only place to be. Gold tends to do well during periods of turmoil—for both wealth preservation and speculative gains. That’s precisely why we just released an urgent video. It reveals how it will all play out and what you can do about it. Click here to watch it now.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 11/28/2019 – 19:00

• Nation's Progressives Give Thanks That They Have So Much To Be Angry About This Year
  Nation’s Progressives Give Thanks That They Have So Much To Be Angry About This Year

  Via BabylonBee.com,

  In honor of Thanksgiving week, the nation’s progressives have begun to give thanks that they have so much to be angry and offended about this year.

  “Thank you, unspecified deity who may or may not exist, for giving us so much stuff to be outraged about,” said Staci Walder, 42, of Portland, as she prepared her vegan, kale-wrapped turkey.

  “I’m truly humbled that you’ve blessed me with the Trump presidency, the patriarchy, the laws of economics, and biological facts to rage against.“

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  “Every year, it’s important to pause and recognize how much we have to be angry about.”

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  “A lot of people struggle with gratitude, but I’m deeply thankful that the universe has given us a veritable cornucopia of things to be mad about,” agreed Mary Wallace, 27, of New York.

  “I know that I come from a place of privilege, and when I think about those poor people who have absolutely nothing to be mad about, I utter a prayer of thanks to goddess.”

  Many progressives partake in an annual tradition of writing down all the things they’re thankful to be mad about:

  • White people

  • Pronouns

  • Personal responsibility

  • Satire that does not affirm their viewpoint

  • Billionaires

  • Old tweets

  • 32-ounce sodas

  • Plastic straws

  • People who hold a steady job

  • Appropriating other cultures

  • Excluding other cultures

  • Bush

  • Obama

  • Trump

  • Babies

  • Kanye West

  • America

  “If we’d all just remember to count our outrages, we’d have a much worse attitude all the time,” Wallace said as she looked over her own list of offensive things that dare to exist.

  “We should live our lives as though it’s Outrage Thanksgiving every day.”

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 11/28/2019 – 18:45

• Korean EV Battery Firms Are At War, Threatening The US Electric Vehicle Market
  Korean EV Battery Firms Are At War, Threatening The US Electric Vehicle Market

  An ongoing war between EV battery manufacturers in Korea could spill over and begin to cause volatility in the U.S. electric vehicle market. 

  Back in 2018, South Korea based SK Innovation beat out local rival LG Chem to supply Volkswagen with a multi-billion EV battery order, according to Reuters. As a result, SKI broke ground on a new $1.7 billion plant in Commerce, Georgia, which is about 200km away from VW’s Chattanooga plant.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  But LG Chem didn’t take the news sitting down: they took SKI to court in April, accusing the company of misappropriating trade secrets. Now, seven months later, it has been a barrage of U.S. lawsuits between the two companies for battery patent infringements. It has become a war that “threatens to disrupt the launches of electric vehicles (EVs) by some of the world’s biggest carmakers.”

  In one court filing, LGC said its rival poached employees working on its own project to supply batteries for VW’s MEB electric vehicle architecture – and that SKI only won the VW contract because it had misappropriated trade secrets.

  SKI has denied stealing trade secrets, saying its staff signed agreements not to use information from former workplaces. “We value intellectual property,” a spokesman for SKI said.

  If the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) rules in favour of LGC on June 5, when it is due to make a preliminary ruling, that could jeopardise SKI’s plans to supply VW in the United States with batteries from Georgia or a new factory in Hungary, according to court filings.

  Both companies are trying to stop each other from importing and selling EV batteries that will be used in VW’s SUVs, as well as electric vehicles from GM, Ford, Jaguar, Audi and Kia. 

  In the balance hangs the companies’ abilities to supply U.S. automakers with batteries as car producers look to lock in supplies with large contracts ahead of an expected surge in demand. 

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Cho Jae-phil, a professor at Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology who worked previously at another Korean rival, Samsung SDI, said: “Whoever loses the fight would suffer a fatal blow, unless the two reach a settlement. This will also be a setback for automakers.”

  Ford spokeswoman Jennifer Flake said: “We are aware of the issue. As a normal course of action, we have business continuity plans in place to protect our interests.”

  She said Ford was encouraging the two companies to resolve their conflicts without litigation and that there was sufficient demand for multiple suppliers. 

  GM spokesman Patrick Morrissey said: “[GM is] aware of the dispute and at this point it [does] not expect any impact on the production of its Chevy Bolt electric vehicle.”

  Volkswagen says it is worried there won’t be enough batteries for all of the EVs it plans to launch over the next 5 years, mainly because other producers don’t have skilled workers for new plants in Europe to ramp up output quickly. 

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Korea’s battery industry tracker SNE Research shows that the market for EV batteries is set to grow 23% a year to reach $167 billion by 2025, making it bigger than the global memory chip market. 

  The feud is worrying the Korean government, where officials believe it could damage the firms’ reputations and allow rivals to win market share from South Korean companies. 

  Beejay Kim, a battery consultant, said: “No one wants them to fight till the end.”

  The patent lawsuits brought forth in the U.S. means that if one companies loses, it probably won’t be able to market products using the patents in the country. There are also lawsuits pending in South Korean courts.

  But SKI and LGC have said there has been so supply disruption – yet. 

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 11/28/2019 – 18:30

• Binge Drinking Doubles Amongst American Women Without Children
  Binge Drinking Doubles Amongst American Women Without Children

  Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

  Binge drinking amongst American women without children has doubled in just over a decade, proving that the satirical ‘wine aunt’ meme is actually true.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  A study by Columbia University found that, “More than four in ten (42 percent) childless 30- to 44-year-olds were having five or more drinks on any given occasion last year – compared to a fifth (21 percent) in 2006,” reports the Daily Mail.

  Another study from last year showed that white adult women over the age of 45 were more likely to take antidepressants than younger adults, men and minorities.

  The wine aunt is no longer just a meme, it’s a manifestly provable reality.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Many women have bought into social engineering propaganda that not having children provides them with freedom and happiness when in reality it only makes them miserable and lonely.

  In addition, when these women reach their later years, there will be absolutely nobody to take care of them and many of them will likely die alone.

  The freedom to die alone having lived a joyless, barren life of meaningless hedonism.

  So happy!

  Meanwhile, as we document in the video below, the epidemic in suicides of white, middle aged working class men in America continues to be ignored by the media.

  *  *  *

  My voice is being silenced by free speech-hating Silicon Valley behemoths who want me disappeared forever. It is CRUCIAL that you support me. Please sign up for the free newsletter here. Donate to me on SubscribeStar here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 11/28/2019 – 18:00

  Tags

  Social Issues

  

• Zombified NYC Developers Resort To Inventory Loans To Stay Afloat Amid Housing Slump
  Zombified NYC Developers Resort To Inventory Loans To Stay Afloat Amid Housing Slump

  New York City’s housing market has been swamped with a historic mismatch involving a flood of luxury inventory and a shortage of buyers. 

  Manhattan is facing one of the worst slumps since 2011, forcing developers to take out low-interest inventory loans, collateralized by unsold condos to stay afloat. 

  These loans are lifelines for struggling developers and a boom for companies such as Silverstein Properties Inc., who is expected to double its inventory loan book to more than $1 billion in 2020, reported Bloomberg.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Silverstein’s inventory loan book is growing at an exponential rate as a housing bust across Manhattan gains momentum. 

  Michael May, CEO of Silverstein, said inventory loan growth among developers is the fastest in Gramercy, Tribeca, and Midtown East. These areas have also been hit hard in the housing slump. 

  “You’re seeing some projects that are completed that have just had very, very slow sales,” May said. “Given the amount of condo developers seeking debt, if we open the floodgates, we could probably load $1 billion of that product on within the next 60 days.”

  Developers have been pulling inventory loans to avoid slashing listing prices that would spark a firesale and lead to further downside in the housing market.

  “Our goal is not to lend to projects that fail: We’re in a position where if a project has a problem, we believe that we could execute the business plan, and we could finish the construction,” May said. “We think that there’s still demand for units that are priced well, but in many cases, the owners of these projects have not adjusted their expectations to where the price would sell in the market yet.”

  Silverstein has completed $500 million in financing year-to-date. Inventory loans are expected to be a large portion of the firm’s book in 2020, as there’s no sign the Manhattan real estate market will see an upswing then, and developers will need cheap financing to weather the storm. 

  Can kicking of condo loans has been institutionalized in the form of “inventory loans”

  The Fed continues to see no signs of excess, BTWhttps://t.co/m5YSCsrtmF

  — Donut Shorts (@DonutShorts) November 27, 2019

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  As a result, the rise of zombie developers across Manhattan is inevitable. Thank You Federal Reserve! 

   

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 11/28/2019 – 17:30

  Tags

  Business Finance

  

• Black Friday Is Coming, And 48 Million Americans Still Have Holiday Debt From Last Year
  Black Friday Is Coming, And 48 Million Americans Still Have Holiday Debt From Last Year

  Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

  The biggest shopping day of the year is almost here, and marketers are working hard trying to extract as much money from U.S. consumers as possible.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Unfortunately, it is becoming increasingly difficult to get consumers to open up their wallets, because many of them are already drowning in debt. As a society, we have been trained to think of this as “the happiest time of the year”, and for many Americans the most important part of the holiday season is opening presents on Christmas morning. So there is a tremendous amount of pressure to spend a lot of money on presents, but this often leads to high levels of credit card debt. In fact, a survey that was just released discovered that 48 million Americans “are still paying off credit card debt from last holiday season”…

  The holidays can be hard: cooking elaborate meals, facing frigid temperatures, making travel plans that please everyone.

  Overspending, however, is too easy. In fact, about 48 million Americans are still paying off credit card debt from last holiday season, according to a NerdWallet survey conducted by The Harris Poll.

  Sadly, some of those consumers will end up paying the credit card companies more than twice what those Christmas presents originally cost, and it can be exceedingly difficult to ever get ahead when you are trapped in a seemingly endless cycle of debt.

  So why do people do it?

  Well, according to one financial therapist many Americans are chasing an “emotional experience” this time of the year…

  Gift-buying requires money, time and energy when you may already feel overwhelmed, says Los Angeles-based financial therapist Amanda Clayman. During the holidays, “we’re chasing a sort of emotional experience,” she says. Think: the love and happiness of a Hallmark movie.

  But feelings of grief or longing may be more realistic. “This is a sad and lonely time for many people,” says Sarah Newcomb, behavioral economist for Morningstar. Shopping (for anything or everything) can be a convenient coping mechanism.

  We want what we see on television, but what we see on television is not real.

  In the end, many Americans leave the holiday season feeling deeply disappointed, because what they were chasing was just an illusion.

  Yes, some wealthy families will literally have hundreds of presents under their Christmas trees this holiday season, but most American families are deeply struggling these days.

  In fact, over two million of us are actually living without basic necessities such as “running water or indoor plumbing”. The following comes from Daisy Luther…

  A new report says that more than 2 million Americans in West Virginia, Alabama, Texas and the Navajo Nation Reservation in the Southwest are living without clean running water or indoor plumbing. They’re drinking from polluted streams. They’re carrying buckets of the same water home for washing. They’re urinating and defecating outside with no wastewater treatment.

  The gap between the rich and the poor continues to grow, and at this point the wealthiest 0.1 percent of all Americans now have as much wealth as the poorest 90 percent of all Americans combined.

  Let that sink in for a moment.

  That is a recipe for societal disaster, and it is getting worse with each passing year.

  A big reason for this is because the Federal Reserve has been artificially pumping up the financial markets, and on Monday stocks hit yet another all-time high…

  The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hit all-time closing highs as they rose 0.8% to 3,133.64 and 1.3% to 8,632.49, respectively. Both indexes also notched intraday records. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also had a record close, gaining 190.85 points, or 0.5% to 28,066.47.

  President Donald Trump tweeted about the record, saying: “Enjoy!”

  But what most Americans don’t understand is that 84 percent of all stock market wealth is owned by the wealthiest 10 percent of all Americans.

  Of course the stock market bubble won’t last indefinitely. We are already in an earnings recession, and that earnings recession is expected to continue in the fourth quarter…

  Earnings in the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.75% are now projected to decline 1.51% in the fourth quarter from the year before, according to a FactSet computation of analysts’ average forecasts for individual companies. An earnings recession is defined as two quarters or more of consecutive year-over-year declines, and earnings for S&P 500 components dipped in the first two quarters of 2019 and are all but certain to do so again in the third quarter — with nearly 95% of calendar third-quarter reports posted, earnings have dropped 2.34%, the biggest decline so far this year.

  And about 75 percent of the time, an earnings recession leads into a full-blown recession for the economy as a whole…

  Three-fourths (75%) of earnings recessions since World War II have morphed into economic recessions, said CFRA Chief Investment Strategist Sam Stovall, who told Market Watch that he has been “scratching his head” trying to reconcile analyst pessimism around earnings with continued stock-market rallies.

  So the truth is that those that are celebrating what the stock market is doing are not likely to be celebrating for too much longer.

  And every day we continue to get more bad news from the real economy. For example, we just learned that the largest maker of truck engines in the United States will be laying off about 2,000 workers…

  Those market trends are now impacting Cummins, a Columbus, Ind., manufacturer of heavy equipment. It’s the largest manufacturer of Class 8 truck engines, claiming a 38.3% market share in 2018 over competitors like Daimler and Volvo/Mack.

  Cummins spokesperson Jon Mills confirmed to Business Insider that the company, which employs some 62,610 globally, will reduce its global workforce by about 2,000. Those layoffs will be complete by the first quarter of 2020, he said.

  As a “perfect storm” overtakes America, many believe that this will be the last “normal” holiday season that Americans will be able to enjoy.

  It has become exceedingly clear that very hard times are coming, and quite a few experts believe that the crisis that is ahead will be even worse than what we experienced in 2008.

  So enjoy the time that you are able to spend with your family and friends over the coming weeks, because major changes are already starting to happen, and our nation will soon be dealing with one major headache after another.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 11/28/2019 – 17:00

  Tags

  Business Finance

  

• China Folds: For All Its Bluster, Beijing Does Nothing After Trump Signs HK Bill
  China Folds: For All Its Bluster, Beijing Does Nothing After Trump Signs HK Bill

  Just a few hours after Trump called China’s bluff on the Hong Kong bill, it appears the US president won the pot.

  After launching a stern verbal protest overnight in which China’s Foreign Ministry said that it would take strong countermeasures if the US continues to undermine Hong Kong’s autonomy after Trump signed the Bill that supports HK protesters, adding that US attempts to interfere in HK are doomed to fail, Beijing has done nothing really, and instead left the door open for a trade deal with the U.S., confirming again that China needs the trade deal with the US just as much as Trump, if not more.

  The build up certainly was dramatic: for days after Congress almost unanimously passed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act last week, China repeatedly vowed it would take unspecified countermeasures if Trump signed the bill, fueling concerns that President Xi Jinping would scuttle the trade talks to appear tough on the U.S. In the end, China did nothing: Wednesday’s bill signing by Mr. Trump came and went without any real action.

  Instead, as the WSJ notes, “Chinese officials shifted their focus to whether the U.S. president would implement any of the bill’s measures, according to officials involved in economic policy-making.” Specifically, to save face, Beijing seized on a sentence in Trump’s statement that emphasized his “constitutional authorities with respect to foreign relations.”

  … with respect to foreign relations.” Sources confirm the Phase One deal is being finalized. So let’s see. With @PhilipWen11 @Chao_Deng

  — Lingling Wei 魏玲灵 (@Lingling_Wei) November 28, 2019

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  Or as the WSJ summarized, for all its huffing and puffing, “China’s leadership still wants a deal to help alleviate pressure on its fast-weakening economy”, which incidentally coincides with Trump’s own interest as he hopes to clinch a deal to boost his re-election bid.

  Indeed, as the WSJ’s Lingling Wei also notes, Trump “Trump also chose the evening before Thanksgiving to sign the measure, a time guaranteed to get little attention in the U.S. While his signature still makes the bill law, his timing suggests he was trying to play down the political impact at home.

  Also good point by @bobdavis187 : Trump also chose the evening be­fore Thanks­giv­ing to sign the mea­sure, a time guar­an­teed to get lit­tle at­ten­tion in U.S. The tim­ing sug­gests he was try­ing to play down the po­lit­i­cal im­pact at home.

  — Lingling Wei 魏玲灵 (@Lingling_Wei) November 28, 2019

  Trump’s successful gambit was concluded when reporters asked if the bill’s signing would affect trade talks. To this, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang didn’t answer directly but demanded the U.S. not implement the law because it would risk “undermining our bilateral relations and cooperation in important areas.” Chinese officials were also reportedly encouraged by Trump’s efforts to emphasize his respect for Mr. Xi. “I signed these bills out of respect for President Xi, China, and the people of Hong Kong,” Trump said unironically in the statement.

  And since the actual implementation of the bill wold not take place for over half a year, when it comes to China it is now officially in the rearview mirror as Beijing has moved the goalpost not to responding to Trump’s signing of the bill, but to Washington’s actual implementation.

  “It does spoil the mood, but it shouldn’t interfere with the trade talks,” said Wang Yong, a professor of international relations at Peking University, of Mr. Trump’s move. “Both sides have enough reasons to keep trade, Hong Kong and political issues on separate tracks.”

  Which means that with both sides now eager to sign a deal, they will ignore any political theater that could potentially jeopardize such a deal:

  Some outside experts agree with Beijing’s interpretation that while the U.S. law gives the president broad powers to impose sanctions and travel restrictions on individuals who commit human-rights violations in Hong Kong, the president already had many of those powers—and still has the discretion to not apply them.

  “My reading of D.C. is there’s a lot of appetite for talking tough on China, but not that much in terms of actually being tough,” said Andrew Polk, founder of Trivium, a Beijing-based economics and policy consulting firm.

  Still, there is a modest risk that Xi will be pressured to offer at least a token response: as noted earlier, China’s top twitter troll, Hu Xijin, editor in chief of the state-run Global Times, said on Twitter that China was considering barring those responsible for drafting the legislation from entering mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau. Trolling Trump’s turn of phrase, Hu said this was “out of respect for President Trump, the U.S. and its people.”

  Yet ultimately passage of any trade deal could depend on whether Hong Kong residents escalate their protests in the coming days, emboldened by explicit US support – in that case, Beijing may have no choice but to close the door, if only temporarily, on a Phase 1 deal.

  China’s attempts to keep Hong Kong issues and the trade talks on separate tracks might not be universally popular, some analysts say. Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University, said it could be embarrassing for a phase-one trade deal to progress in light of the Hong Kong law.

  Yet despite the various unknowns and risks, the fact that Beijing has so far merely stuck to verbal threats instead of escalating to actual deeds, confirms that for now, Trump’s signing gamble worked out just as the US president expected.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 11/28/2019 – 16:50

• Walmart Pork Found To Have "Superbug" Bacteria Resistant To Antibiotics
  Walmart Pork Found To Have “Superbug” Bacteria Resistant To Antibiotics

  A new study published by animal-welfare group World Animal Protection has arrived at some stunning findings about pork products begin sold at Walmart. 

  The report , published by FoodDive, found that pork samples purchased from Walmart contained “superbug” antibiotic-resistant bacteria. 80% of samples tested from Mid-Atlantic Walmart stores were resistant to at least one antibiotic. Additionally, 37% of the bacteria in the Walmart samples were resistant to three or more classes of antibiotics.

  In sum, about 27% of the resistant bacteria found on Walmart’s pork were resistant to classes categorized as Highest Priority Critically Important Antimicrobials by the World Health Organization.

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  160 samples of pork were tested by researchers at Texas Tech University: 80 were from Walmart and 80 were from a competing national retail chain in the Mid-Atlantic region. The samples were tested in 32 batches for E. coli, salmonella, enterococcus and listeria. Researchers said they found enterococcus in 13 batches, E. coli in 10 batches, salmonella in 6 and listeria in 3 batches.

  Alesia Soltanpanah, executive director of World Animal Protection U.S., said: “The presence of multidrug-resistant bacteria on pork products illustrates the role the pork supply chain plays in the global health crisis caused by antibiotic-resistant bacteria. The fact that pork from one of the nation’s largest retailers contains bacteria resistant to antibiotics critically important to human health is particularly alarming and should raise concerns.”​

  In addition to Walmart, researchers also tested pork sample from another national retail chain and also found antibiotic-resistant bacteria. However, the second batch tested did not contain two strains of multidrug-resistant bacteria in a single batch (as the Walmart batch did) and none of the samples were resistant to antibiotics considered “critically important to human health”.

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  The report didn’t name the second retailer, but FoodDive speculates that it is Costco, Kroger or Target, based on the report noting that the second retailer has “has committed to strengthen its animal welfare policies for its pork suppliers, including working towards a commitment to complete elimination of gestation crates for breeding sows.” 

  Walmart has not yet made this commitment, while Target and Costco have committed to the initiative by 2022 and Kroger by 2025. In 2016, however, Walmart partnered with IBM and Tsinghua University to track the movement of pork in China using blockchain. 

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  As FoodDive notes, consumers are now challenging major food companies for more transparency with their manufacturing processes:

  Food companies are being challenged by consumers demanding more transparency and checking manufacturing processes to make sure the products they buy reflect their values. Younger consumers responding to surveys note how they’re willing to pay premium prices for organic, natural and cruelty-free foods. Both Perdue and Tyson have attracted negative publicity involving animal welfare in recent years and had to change their practices as a result.

  Antibiotic-free has become more prevalent as a label claim. Giant Food, a unit of Ahold Delhaize, debuted a private-label pork brand in 2017 with no antibiotics or hormones and 100% vegetarian-fed. And major poultry producers such as Tyson Foods, Pilgrim’s Pride and Perdue have committed to reducing or removing antibiotics from their chicken.

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  Soltanpanah said the WAP was in contact with Walmart about the results but that the company was “not responsive” to the concerns. Walmart has not acknowledged the problem as of November 26. 

  These antibiotics – called Highest Priority Critically Important Antimicrobials – are the ones where there are few, or sometimes no, alternatives to treat people with serious infections. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has said “antimicrobial resistance poses a serious threat to the safety and quality of feed and food, especially in food-producing animals.”

  The Centers for Disease Control calls antibiotic resistance “one of the biggest public health challenges of our time.” 

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 11/28/2019 – 16:30

  Tags

  Health Medical Pharma

  

• Christopher Steele Distributed Other Dossier Reports
  Christopher Steele Distributed Other Dossier Reports

  Authored by John Solomon via JohnSolomonReports.com,

  Just before Christmas 2015, the British intelligence operative Christopher Steele emailed a report to private clients that included an American lawyer for a Ukrainian oligarch.

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  The title of the dossier was “FIRTASH Abortive Return to Ukraine,” and it purported to provide intelligence on why the energy oligarch Dmitri Firtash tried, but failed, to return to his home country of Ukraine.

  “FIRTASH’s talk of returning to Ukraine a genuine ambition rather than merely a ruse to reveal Ukrainian government’s hand. However the oligarch developed cold feet upon the news of a negative reception at Boryspil airport,” Steele reported on Dec. 23, 2015.

  Perhaps most important to the recipients, the former MI6 agent’s report purported to share the latest thinking of Russian and U.S. officials on Firtash, who at the time faced U.S. criminal charges and was awaiting extradition from Austria.

  Those charges and extradition remain unresolved four years later. Firtash insists on his innocence, while the U.S. government stands by it case despite recent criticism from Austrian and Spanish authorities.

  “The prevarication over his return has lost FIRTASH credibility with the Russians, but his precarious position in Austria leaves him little choice but to acquiesce with Moscow’s demands,” the Steele report claimed.

  “Separate American sources confirm that US Government regards FIRTASH as a conduit for Russian influence and he remains a pariah to the Americans.”

  The anecdote of the Firtash report underscores that challenges the FBI faced when it used Steele in 2016 as a human source in the Russia collusion probe.

  He not only opposed Trump and was paid by Hillary Clinton’s opposition research firm to dig up dirt on the then-GOP nominee, he also was in the business of selling intelligence to private clients – all perfectly legal — while informing for the FBI.

  Steele had engaged the U.S. government on occasion since his retirement from MI6 in 2009, both as an FBI informant in the FIFA soccer corruption case and as intelligence provider to the Obama State Department. So any assessment he offered from U.S. officials was closely watched by private clients.

  His Firtash report cited an unnamed intelligence source indicating that Firtash had little chance of winning any favor under the Obama administration, but that other oligarchs in the region might be welcomed by the Americans if they sought to play a role in Ukraine.

  “The source had a separate confirmation from US sources that Washington regarded FIRTASH as a conduit for Russian influence,” the report said.

  “Whilst the USG was prepared to do business with the likes of Rinat AKHMETOV and Ihor KOLOMOISKY, FIRTASH remained a pariah.”

  The U.S. lawyer who received Steele’s report represented Firtash and had spent part of 2015 checking whether there was an opportunity the State or Justice Department might negotiate to settle the criminal case against his client.  He determined the U.S. government did not, something Steele’s report only affirmed anew.

  Steele did not immediately respond to a message to his London business office seeking comment. But his firm has issued a blanket statement on its Web site saying it does highly professional work but doesn’t comment on specific clients or products.

  “Orbis Business Intelligence has an established track record of providing strategic intelligence, forensic investigation and risk consulting services to a broad client base,” the firm wrote. “The nature of our business, and our high standards of professionalism dictate that we would not disclose to the public information on any specific aspects of our work.  We remain fully committed to the secure provision of our services to our clients and partners worldwide.”

  Steele and his infamous dossier alleging an unfounded conspiracy between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin to hijack the 2016 election are expected to play a starring role in a long-awaited Justice Department inspector general’s report reviewing the FBI’s Russian collusion probe.

  The report to be made public next month is expected to reveal that one FBI official falsified a document and other U.S. officials withheld information both about Steele and the innocence of some of the targeted individuals when the FBI sought a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act warrant to probe the Trump campaign’s ties to Russia starting in October 2016.

  Some intelligence experts have been quoted recently as saying Steele’s information against Trump, much of which the FBI could never verify, may have been Russian disinformation designed to sow chaos during the U.S. election.

  After two-plus years of investigation, Special Counsel Robert Mueller concluded this spring that there was no collusion or conspiracy between Russia and the Trump campaign. Nonetheless, the allegations have lingered over the Trump presidency and divided the country bitterly.

  Steele’s Firtash report is a cogent reminder that while Steele on occasion worked for the U.S. government, he also was simultaneously pitching intelligence he got from American sources and others to his private clients, some who had different interests than the United States.

  The back and forth between U.S. and other contacts in Steele’s business was laid bare by email and text messages released by the Justice Department last year. For instance, the messages show that less than three weeks after emailing the Firtash report, Steele reached out in January 2016 to senior U.S. Justice Department official Bruce Ohr, a prosecutor with responsibility for Eurasian oligarchs, to set up a possible meeting in London.

  Steele and Ohr had frequent contact all the way through 2017, including when Steele shared on July 30, 2016 some of his anti-Trump evidence with Ohr, who then took it to the top of the FBI. Steele was eventually dropped by the FBI as an informant for leaking to the news media.

  Fiona Hill, a recent impeachment witness and a former top Russia expert on the National Security Council, suggested to lawmakers in a deposition recently that Steele’s dual role as government insider/informer and private intelligence provider left him vulnerable to Russian disinformation when he wrote his dossier.

  “He was constantly trying to drum up business,” Hill testified when asked about her own contacts from time to time with the former British intelligence agent.

  She said that when she read Steele’s anti-Trump dossier in January 2017 she instantly feared it might be disinformation fed to Steele by the Russians because he previously had done spy work for MI6.

  “That is when I expressed the misgivings and concern that he could have been played,” Hill testified.

  She added:

  “The Russians would have an axe to grind against him given the job he had previously. And if he started going back through his old contacts and asking about that, that would be a perfect opportunity for people to feed him some kind of misinformation.”

  The IG report set to be released Dec. 9 will give Americans a more comprehensive look at Steele and the FBI’s reliance on him as an informant.

  And then it will be up to the FBI, DOJ and congressional oversight committees to re-evaluate what lessons can be learned from the now-debunked Russia collusion probe.  

  Those likely are to include better vetting of informants, stronger oversight of the FISA process and new regulations for when the FBI can investigate a candidate during the middle of an election, especially when the allegations emanate from a political opponent.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 11/28/2019 – 16:00

  Tags

  Politics

  

• Trump Makes Surprise Thanksgiving Visit To US Troops In Afghanistan, Says Taliban Talks Have Resumed
  Trump Makes Surprise Thanksgiving Visit To US Troops In Afghanistan, Says Taliban Talks Have Resumed

  President Trump made an unannounced trip to Afghanistan on Thursday, his first as president, to visit troops for the Thanksgiving holiday. There, Trump said peace talks with the Taliban had resumed, speaking at a US air force base alongside Afghan president Ashraf Ghani.

  Trump landed at Bagram Airfield around 8:30 pm local time Thursday and greeted U.S. soldiers over a turkey dinner before meeting with Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani at the airfield’s Air Force headquarters.

  🚨MOMENTS AGO🚨
  President @realDonaldTrump visits U.S. Soldiers at Bagram Airfield in Afghanistan…. pic.twitter.com/HpHd6PxEqn

  — Dan Scavino Jr.🇺🇸 (@Scavino45) November 28, 2019

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Following a meeting with Ghani, Trump told reporters that the Taliban “wants to make a deal” and that US officials were “meeting with them.” Trump also said that the Taliban was willing to agree to a ceasefire: “The Taliban wants to make a deal and we’re meeting with them and we’re saying it has to be a cease-fire, and they didn’t want to do a cease-fire and now they want to do a cease-fire – I believe it’ll probably work out that way.”

  Trump also said that the US will continue to reduce its troop commitment to the region, from 12,000 now to about 8,600, but would like to go lower without impacting operational duties. “We can go much further than that, but we’ll have it all covered,” Trump said.

  According to Bloomberg, both Trump and Ghani said it was an honor to meet. Trump spent about 45 minutes in the building where they met, with press in the room for only a portion of it. In brief remarks to reporters during the bilateral session, Ghani noted that U.S. combat casualties have fallen under Trump’s presidency. Trump took office after the NATO mission in Afghanistan shifted to a training and advisory role.

  Ghani thanked Trump for his leadership and called for a deal that won’t give too much power to the Taliban, saying Trump should not put “limits on the type of peace that will ensure the gains of the past year, and will ensure your security and our freedom.”

  “Please thank your families for agreeing to miss you on this special occasion at home and for being here defending United States security and our freedom. Together, we will succeed,” Ghani told the soldiers. “We will never permit the repetition of 9/11 again. God bless you, God bless the president.”

  Speaking to the US troops, Trump reiterated that they’re working for a peace deal in Afghanistan. “Rest assured that my administration will always be committed to annihilating terrorists wherever they appear,” he said, adding that he looked forward to the day “when we can bring each and every one of you home and safe to your family, and that day is coming and coming very soon.”

  Trump’s remarks covered many of the same themes as his campaign events, including discussing highs in the stock market, the recent death of a top Islamic State leader and the role that a U.S. military dog, Conan, played in that mission. He recalled serving turkey earlier to troops, and missing out on his own meal.

  “I had a bit of mashed potatoes and I never got to my turkey,” Trump told soldiers at the rally, saying he instead went to take photos with servicemen and -women. “I should have started with that, and not the mashed potatoes. I made a mistake.”

  “We’ve spent $2.5 trillion since I’ve been here, that’s a lot of money that we’ve rebuilt our military. It was depleted as you know,” Trump told troops seated for dinner. “I want to thank you very much and I’ll be talking to you later but right now I want to have some turkey, OK? I’m going to join you for a little lunch.”

  After speaking to the troops, Trump then toured the room speaking with soldiers, who loudly cheered his arrival. “Thank you all very much, what a great job you do, it’s an honor to be here – it’s a long flight,” he said after arriving, to laughter from soldiers. “But we love it.”

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  The surprise visit and announcement came two months after Trump abruptly halted peace negotiations with the Taliban in early September after accusing them of seeking “false leverage” through a terrorist attack that killed 12 people, including a member of the American military.

  The US had been engaged in negotiations with the Taliban and planned to hold further talks with Taliban leaders and president Ghani at Camp David, the presidential retreat in Maryland, but following the terrorist incident the talks never happened.

  Trump has long hoped to strike a deal with the Taliban, which would allow him to claim he has succeeded in ending the war in Afghanistan, something that eluded both George W Bush and Barack Obama, his predecessors in the Oval Office.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 11/28/2019 – 15:43

  Tags

  War Conflict

  Politics

  

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• UK Election Registrations And Voters Swinging To Labour?
  UK Election Registrations And Voters Swinging To Labour?

  Submitted by Strategic Macro,

  New voter registration closed last night. There have been 4.7m new voter registrations with 3.1m of them under 34 yrs old. On a 2017 voter turnout of 32m, new registrations are 15% of the 2017 vote.

  Are the polls picking up this change in the electorate?

  Young voters are massively Labour biased 60/40 vs Tories. Thats worth about 600k extra Labour votes or a 2%swing in voting bias for Labour and against the Tories. Lib Dems and SNP also benefit in addition to this.

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  If you add back undecideds and refused to answer then there is about 25% of the youth vote still up for grabs so if Corbyn has a good last three weeks the Labour > Tory bias could be even greater.

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  Hung Parliament?

  Is the following plausible. Boris wins 300-320, vs 323 needed for a simple majority of 1.

  Corbyn constructs disagreements with SNP, then Boris forms a minority govt. Corbyn then lets him pass the WA to leave the EU. Corbyn will then have achieved his lifelong goals of splitting the Thatcher Tory party and delivering Brexit.

  He can hand over leadership to Stamer or whomever by the Autumn conference. That will be in the thick of a Trump/ Warren election with Warren campaigning on hard socialist credentials. Stamer then calls a confidence vote in Bojo…

  We will find out soon enough.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 11/28/2019 – 02:00

  Tags

  Politics

  

• Don't Just Give Thanks. Pay Your Blessings Forward
  Don’t Just Give Thanks. Pay Your Blessings Forward

  Authored by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

  “As we express our gratitude, we must never forget that the highest appreciation is not to utter words, but to live by them.”

  – John F. Kennedy

  Once again, it’s been a hard, heart-wrenching, stomach-churning kind of year.

  It’s been a year of hotheads and blowhards and killing sprees and bloodshed and takedowns.

  It’s been a year in which tyranny took a few more steps forward and freedom got knocked down a few more notches.

  It’s been a year with an abundance of bad news and a shortage of good news.

  It’s been a year of too much hate and too little kindness.

  It’s been a year in which politics and profit margins took precedence over decency, compassion and human-kindness.

  And now we find ourselves at this present moment, understandably overwhelmed by all that is wrong in the world and struggling to reflect and give thanks for what is good.

  It’s not easy, and it’s getting harder by the day.

  After all, how do you give thanks for freedoms that are constantly being eroded? How do you express gratitude for one’s safety when the perils posed by the American police state grow more treacherous by the day? How do you come together as a nation in thanksgiving when the powers-that-be continue to polarize and divide us into warring factions?

  With every passing day, the U.S. government more closely resembles an evil empire, governed by laws that are rash, unjust and unconstitutional; policed by government agents who are corrupt, hypocritical and abusive; a menace to its own people; and the antithesis of everything the founders hoped the government would be—a blessing to all the people.

  We’re not just dealing with misguided government officials run amok.

  This is evil disguised as bureaucracy.

  This is what Hannah Arendt referred to as the banality of evil.

  Evil has a broad spectrum, but still… evil is evil.

  Evil is what happens when government bureaucrats unquestioningly carry out orders that are immoral and inhumane; obey immoral instructions unthinkingly; march in lockstep with tyrants; mindlessly perpetuate acts of terror and inhumanity; and justify it all as just “doing one’s job.”

  To that list, let me add one more: a populace that remains silent in the face of wrongdoing.

  This is how evil prevails: when good men and women do nothing.

  By doing nothing, by remaining silent, by being bystanders to injustice, hate and wrongdoing, good people become as guilty as the perpetrator.

  There’s a term for this phenomenon where people stand by, watch and do nothing—even when there is no risk to their safety—while some horrific act takes place (someone is mugged or raped or bullied or left to die): it’s called the bystander effect.

  It works the same whether you’re talking about kids watching bullies torment a fellow student on a playground, bystanders watching someone dying on a sidewalk, or citizens remaining silent in the face of government atrocities.

  We need to stop being silent bystanders.

  So what can you do about this bystander effect?

  Be a hero, suggests psychologist Philip Zimbardo.

  “Each of us has an inner hero we can draw upon in an emergency,” Zimbardo concluded. “If you think there is even a possibility that someone needs help, act on it. You may save a life. You are the modern version of the Good Samaritan that makes the world a better place for all of us.”

  Zimbardo is the psychologist who carried out the Stanford Prison Experiment which studied the impact of perceived power and authority on middleclass students who were assigned to act as prisoners and prison guards. The experiment revealed that power does indeed corrupt (the appointed guards became increasingly abusive), and those who were relegated to being prisoners acted increasingly “submissive and depersonalized, taking the abuse and saying little in protest.”

  What is the antidote to group think and the bystander effect?

  Be an individual. Listen to your inner voice. Take responsibility.

  “If you find yourself in an ambiguous situation, resist the urge to look to others and go with your gut instinct,” advises Melissa Burkley in Psychology Today. “If you think there is even a possibility that someone is in need, act on it. At worst, you will embarrass yourself for a few minutes, but at best, you will save a life.”

  “Even if people recognize that they are witnessing a crime, they may still fail to intervene if they do not take personal responsibility for helping the victim,” writes Burkley. “The problem is that the more bystanders there are, the less responsible each individual feels.”

  In other words, recognize injustice.

  Don’t turn away from suffering.

  Refuse to remain silent. Take a stand. Speak up. Speak out.

  This is what Zimbardo refers to as “the power of one.”

  All it takes is one person breaking away from the fold to change the dynamics of a situation.

  “Once any one helps, then in seconds others will join in because a new social norm emerges,” notes Zimbardo. “Do Something Helpful.”

  The Good Samaritans of this world don’t always get recognized, but they’re doing their part to push back against the darkness.

  For instance, a few years ago in Florida, a family of six—four adults and two young boys—were swept out to sea by a powerful rip current in Panama City Beach. There was no lifeguard on duty. The police were standing by, waiting for a rescue boat. And the few people who had tried to help ended up stranded, as well.

  Those on shore grouped together and formed a human chain. What started with five volunteers grew to 15, then 80 people, some of whom couldn’t swim.

  One by one, they linked hands and stretched as far as their chain would go. The strongest of the volunteers swam out beyond the chain and began passing the stranded victims of the rip current down the chain.

  One by one, they rescued those in trouble and pulled each other in.

  There’s a moral here for what needs to happen in this country if we only can band together and prevail against the riptides that threaten to overwhelm us.

  So here’s what I suggest.

  Instead of just giving thanks this holiday season with words that are too soon forgotten, why not put your gratitude into action with deeds that spread a little kindness, lighten someone’s burden, and brighten some dark corner?

  Pay your blessings forward in whatever way makes sense to you.

  This is something that everyone can do no matter how tight our budgets or how crowded our schedules.

  Engage in acts of kindness. Smile more. Fight less. Build bridges. Refuse to toxic politics define your relationships. Focus on the things that unite instead of that which divides. Be a hero, whether or not anyone ever notices.

  Do your part to push back against the meanness of our culture with conscious compassion and humanity. Moods are contagious, the good and the bad. They can be passed from person to person. So can the actions associated with those moods, the good and the bad.

  Even holding the door for someone or giving up your seat on a crowded train are acts of benevolence that, magnified by other such acts, can spark a movement.

  Volunteer at a soup kitchen or donate to a charity that does good work. Take part in local food drives. Take a meal to a needy family. “Adopt” an elderly person at a nursing home. Advocate for the creation of local homeless shelters in your community. Urge your churches, synagogues and mosques to act as rotating thermal shelters for the homeless during the cold winter months. Support groups like The Rutherford Institute that are tirelessly working to advance the cause of freedom.

  In other words, help those in need.

  I know that fixing what’s wrong with this country is not going to happen overnight.

  There may not be much we can do to avoid the dismal reality of the police state in the long term—not so long as the powers-that-be continue to call the shots and allow profit margins to take precedence over the needs of people—but in the short term, there are things we can all do right now to make this world (or at least our small corners of it) a little bit kinder, a lot less hostile and more just.

  On a larger scale, we need to stop being silent bystanders to our nation’s downfall.

  Historically, this bystander syndrome in which people remain silent and disengaged—mere onlookers—in the face of abject horrors and injustice has resulted in whole populations being conditioned to tolerate unspoken cruelty toward their fellow human beings: the crucifixion and slaughter of innocents by the Romans, the torture of the Inquisition, the atrocities of the Nazis, the butchery of the Fascists, the bloodshed by the Communists, and the cold-blooded war machines run by the military industrial complex.

  “I swore never to be silent whenever and wherever human beings endure suffering and humiliation,” stated Holocaust Elie Wiesel in his Nobel Peace Prize acceptance speech in 1986.

  “We must always take sides. Neutrality helps the oppressor, never the victim. Silence encourages the tormentor, never the tormented. Sometimes we must interfere. When human lives are endangered, when human dignity is in jeopardy, national borders and sensitivities become irrelevant. Wherever men or women are persecuted because of their race, religion, or political views, that place must – at that moment – become the center of the universe.”

  As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, it’s never too late to start making things right in the world.

  So this year, don’t just give thanks. Pay your blessings forward.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 11/27/2019 – 23:35

• NJ To Become Wasteland: 44% Of Residents Plan To Flee State
  NJ To Become Wasteland: 44% Of Residents Plan To Flee State

  Thanks to the highest property taxes in the nation and an unsustainable cost of living, 44% of New Jersey residents plan to leave the state in the ‘no so distant future,’ according to a recent survey from the Garden State Initiative (GSI) and Fairleigh Dickenson University School of Public & Global Affairs.

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  Committing to a more solid time frame, 28% say they are planning to leave within five years, and 39% say they will do so over the next decade, according to Insider NJ.

  Unsurprisingly, Property Taxes and the overall Cost of Living were cited as the main drivers. The results also debunk two issues frequently cited in anecdotal accounts of outmigration, weather and public transportation, as they ranked 8^th and 10^th respectively, out of 11 factors offered.

  The desire to leave the Garden State was reflected most strongly among young residents (18-29) with almost 40% anticipating leaving the state within the next five years. At the other end of the spectrum, a third (33%) of those nearing retirement (50-64) plan to leave within the next five years. –Insider NJ

  “These results should alarm every elected official and policymaker in New Jersey, said GSI’s president, former Chris Christie Chief of Staff Regina Egea. GSI focuses on providing “research-based answers to fiscal and economic issues” facing the state.

  “We have a crisis of confidence in the ability of our leaders to address property taxes and the cost of living whether at the start of their career, in prime earning years, or repositioning for retirement, New Jersey residents see greener pastures in other states.  This crisis presents a profound challenge to our state as we are faced with a generation of young residents looking elsewhere to build their careers, establish families and make investments like homeownership.”

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  After taxes and a high cost of living, government corruption and concerns about crime and drugs concerned citizens the most. Insider notes that there were no significant differences in responses across income levels.

  Methodology

  The survey was conducted by live callers on both landlines and cellular phones between September 26 through October 2, 2019, with a scientifically selected random sample of 801 New Jersey adults, 18 or older. Persons without a telephone could not be included in the random selection process. Respondents within a household are selected by asking randomly for the youngest adult currently available. The interview was conducted in English and included 253 adults reached on a landline phone and 548 adults reached on a cell phone, all acquired through random digit dialing.

  The data were weighted to be representative of the non-institutionalized adult population of New Jersey. The weighting balanced sample demographics to target population parameters. The sample is balanced to match parameters for sex, age, education, race/ethnicity, region and phone use. The sex, age, education, race/ethnicity and region parameters were derived from 2017 American Community Survey PUMS data. The phone use parameter was derived from estimates provided by the National Health Interview Survey Early Release Program.^[1][2][3]

  Weighting was done in two stages. The first stage of weighting corrected for different probabilities of selection associated with the number of adults in each household and each respondent’s telephone usage patterns. This adjustment also accounts for the overlapping landline and cell sample frames and the relative sizes of each frame and each sample. This first stage weight was applied to the entire sample which included all adults.

  The second stage of the weighting balanced sample demographics to match target population benchmarks. This weighting was accomplished using SPSSINC RAKE, an SPSS extension module that simultaneously balances the distributions of all variables using the GENLOG procedure. Weights were trimmed to prevent individual interviews from having too much influence on the final results. The use of these weights in statistical analysis ensures that the demographic characteristics of the sample closely approximate the demographic characteristics of the target population.

  Read the rest here.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 11/27/2019 – 23:10

  Tags

  Social Issues

  

• Amazon Ring Doorbell Camera To Build Watchlist Of "Suspicious" Neighbors For Police
  Amazon Ring Doorbell Camera To Build Watchlist Of “Suspicious” Neighbors For Police

  Authored by John Vibes via TheMindUnleashed.com,

  Ring, the home security system developed by Amazon, is planning to build a database of neighborhood watchlists using facial recognition technology.

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  Documents obtained by the Intercept revealed that the company is working with law enforcement on a system that will identify people who are considered “suspicious,” and let Ring owners know when these individuals are near their home, using the facial recognition software built into the security system’s cameras.

  The software will also give the Ring owner the ability to notify police or call in the suspicious activity on their own.

  According to the documents, the watchlists would be connected to Ring’s Neighbors app, where owners of the system communicate with their neighbors about packages being stolen from doorsteps and other potential security breaches. While this may sound innocent—or even helpful—critics worry that this technology may empower the kind of neighborhood snitches that call the cops on anyone who they find “suspicious,” typically based on their own prejudices.

  In fact, a Ring employee, speaking to the Intercept under the condition of anonymity, admitted that “all it is is people reporting people in hoodies.”

  While these plans are explicit in the documents, Ring spokesperson Yassi Shahmiri insisted that “the features described are not in development or in use and Ring does not use facial recognition technology.”

  However, Amazon was later forced to admit that the facial recognition system is currently a “contemplated but unreleased feature” for Ring, in a response to a formal inquiry by Massachusetts Senator Edward Markey.

  Mohammad Tajsar, an attorney with the American Civil Liberties Union of Southern California, said that “‘watchlisting’ capabilities on Ring devices encourages the creation of a digital redline in local neighborhoods, where cops in tandem with skeptical homeowners let machines create lists of undesirables unworthy of entrance into well-to-do areas.”

  Many of the questionable features proposed in the documents involve the identification of “suspicious” individuals, but the standards that are used to determine who is suspicious and who is not are unclear. However, if artificial intelligence is being used along with information being crowdsourced by neighbors, there is a high likelihood that the inherent bias, both on the part of the algorithm and on neighborhood busybodies, will contribute to an overall bias in the artificial intelligence system.

  An article published last year in Nature explores the ethical framework of technology like self-driving cars. The article notes that the ethics of self-driving cars are based on the trolley problem, an ethical lifeboat scenario that would prove extremely unlikely in the real world. According to the ethics of self-driving cars, informed by the trolley problem, the lives of old people are less valuable than those of younger generations, and the life of an athlete is likewise more valuable than a “large” woman or homeless person. Other studies have shown racial and gender bias “accidentally” coded into facial recognition systems.

  A self-driving car has a choice about who dies in a fatal crash. Here are the ethical considerations https://t.co/ZcEgDQfxhh #automation pic.twitter.com/XzLWQWDzcr

  — World Economic Forum (@wef) November 3, 2018

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The documents went into detail about a variety of the features that are currently being “contemplated” by the company, including phone notifications about “suspicious” individuals who may have been spotted in the area, which even allows the Ring user to notify their neighbors. Another feature identified in the documents is something called “proactive suspect matching,” and while the documents were unclear about how this would function, it seems like a program that would cross-reference faces that walked by a Ring user’s house with a police database of potential suspects.

  “Ring appears to be contemplating a future where police departments can commandeer the technology of private consumers to match ‘suspect’ profiles of individuals captured by private cameras with those cops have identified as suspect – in fact, exponentially expanding their surveillance capabilities without spending a dime,” Tajsar said.

  These features are not unprecedented for Ring or Amazon. Earlier this year, Motherboard reported that Ring was encouraging its users to snitch on their neighbors in exchange for discounts and free products.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 11/27/2019 – 22:45

  Tags

  Technology Internet

  

• Elon Musk Will Testify In His Own Defense In "Pedo Guy" Defamation Trial
  Elon Musk Will Testify In His Own Defense In “Pedo Guy” Defamation Trial

  The boy genius Elon Musk, who has already dug himself a wonderful hole by baselessly defaming British cave diving hero Vern Unsworth by calling him “pedo guy”, now apparently feels sufficiently confident that he can dig himself out. 

  At least, that’s the message Musk’s lawyer seems like he wants to get across. Musk will be testifying in his own defense against the lawsuit, according to Reuters, who reported the news based on a statement from Musk’s lawyer on Tuesday.

  Of course, we can’t help but think this statement in and of itself is a bit of show – Musk really wouldn’t have a choice but to be examined by the plaintiff in a civil trial to begin with, based on our understanding of civil litigation. So his “decision” to testify may not actually be a “decision” at all.

  And if Musk’s lawyer’s interpretation of the events is anything like what his testimony will look like, we can’t wait for Unsworth’s attorney, L. Lin Wood, to have his chance to question Musk

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  Musk’s lawyer, Alexander Spiro, said: “Evidence is going to be through Mr. Musk (testifying) that in fact Mr. Musk didn’t call him a pedophile. Mr. Musk deleted the tweet, apologized and moved on.”

  Sure, if by “moved on”, you mean “referred to Unsworth as a ‘child rapist’ in correspondence with journalists” and “taunted Unsworth to sue him”.

  Unsworth is also expected to testify to “his worries, his anxieties, his concern by being branded a pedophile,” his lawyer said. Both sides seem uninterested in settling the case. 

  Meanwhile, the case will be undergoing its second day of pretrial hearings on Tuesday to determine what evidence will be admissible in next week’s civil trial. Last week, Judge Stephen Wilson rejected Musk’s attempt to have the lawsuit dismissed and ruled that Unsworth was not a public figure, making it easier for him to prove defamation. Musk had previously argued that Unsworth had become a public figure due to the Thailand cave rescue and that Unsworth needed to prove “actual malice”. 

  Unsworth can now win the suit by showing that Musk acted negligently while making his comments.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 11/27/2019 – 22:20

  Tags

  Law Crime

  

• Retail Giants Gear Up For Black Friday… And Political Giving
  Retail Giants Gear Up For Black Friday… And Political Giving

  Authored by Anna Massoglia via OpenSecrets.org,

  Ready, shoppers? Your long-awaited holidays are afoot — so are the countless deals up for grabs. But as millions of Americans gear up to flood drop-in shops and online stores for Black Friday sales, some of the top retail giants are pouring big bucks into the political sphere. 

  In the wake of ongoing U.S-China trade tension, many corporate giants are ramping up lobbying efforts this year, hiring President Donald Trump-linked lobbyists to try to steer the administration away from business-hurting tariffs. Some are growing more vocal on social issues and launching influence campaigns to sway Congress, giving campaign cash to dozens of congressional candidates up for reelection in 2020.

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  Compared to last year, major big-box chains are spending less this year in direct contributions and domestic lobbying. Despite the decrease, retail giants are still demonstrating substantial influence in the political realm. 

  Amazon

  The world’s biggest online retailer saw record-breaking sales during last year’s Thanksgiving week, with more than 18 million toys and 13 million fashion items sold on Black Friday and Cyber Monday. The company could refresh its record this year as holiday non-store sales are estimated to grow by 11 to 14 percent compared to last year. 

  The company also broke its own lobbying spending record last year, doling out $14.4 million as the Pentagon considered Amazon as one of the frontrunners for a $10 billion contract. The contract was awarded instead to Microsoft last month, which prompted a lawsuit from Amazon. The company did not release the complaint but said it intends to submit videos of Trump’s comments on the issue as evidence as it challenges the department’s decision. 

  The lawsuit came as the president mocked Amazon owner Jeff Bezos on Twitter for his ownership of The Washington Post and attacked the paper’s presidential coverage. As the relationship between the two continues to sour this year, Amazon is approaching its lobbying spending record, burning cash at a higher pace each quarter compared to last year. The company has shelled out $12.4 million during the first three quarters of this year on technology, trade and tax issues, among others. 

  The company invested heavily in state-level elections this year, pouring almost $1.5 million into the Seattle City Council races to sway voters against a head tax that could harm its business. It also increased contributions to state elections in Virginia — home to its new East Coast headquarters — giving $278,000 as of the end of October. Federal-level political giving from Amazon’s PAC and employees plunged this year, totalling $1.6 million so far after its record-high $13.6 million of contributions ahead of the midterms last year. However, the bulk of last year’s contributions came from Bezos, who alone injected $10.2 million into the With Honor Fund, a super PAC backing candidates who were military veterans. 

  Sen. Berni Sanders (I-Vt.) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) respectively received $134,224 and $75,830 from Amazon affiliates, leading a crowded pool of Democratic presidential contenders. Both Sanders and Warren have spoken against corporate interests and rejected PAC contributions. Amazon’s PAC spread its wealth among lawmakers of the two major parties, giving $275,000 to Democrats and $296,000 to Republicans. 

  Walmart

  Having unveiled Black Friday deals weeks ahead of Thanksgiving, the world’s largest brick-and-mortar retail company is expected to rake in huge profits from this year’s holiday sales. 

  After two shootings that took 24 lives at its stores in El Paso, Texas and Southaven, Mississippi this summer, the retail chain banned in-store open carry and stopped selling military-style ammunition and handguns. The company also called for federal lawmakers to strengthen background check legislation and introduce bills to create a safer environment.

  Top executives of Walmart also spoke out on climate change issues as the company launched projects to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. On the heels of Trump’s decision to pull out of the Paris Climate Agreement, a United Nations initiative to address global warming, Walmart Executive Vice President Kathleen McLaughlin co-authored an op-ed criticizing the withdrawal as “unfortunate” and warned that it would damage the American economy and put Americans at “greater risk.”

  Direct contributions to candidates from the company’s PAC and affiliates dropped from last year, totalling $993,204 this year. Like Amazon, Walmart affiliates also favored Sanders among all presidential candidates, giving the Vermont senator $68,438. The company’s PAC gave $422,000 to federal candidates of both parties and channeled $30,000 each to all four national congressional party committees. 

  The company’s lobbying expenditure is also down compared to previous years. Walmart has spent $4.7 million this year thus far, lobbying on environmental sustainability, drug pricing and other hot-button issues. The company is also lobbying on multiple trade-related issues as the tariff war between the U.S. and China exacerbates and Congress continues to work on the new trade agreement among the U.S., Mexico and Canada. 

  Walmart is actively involved in state politics as well. Lobbyists representing the interests of the company as well as other retail giants, for example, helped draft bills in Florida that would require customers to pay an online sales tax, Orlando Sentinel reported. 

  Best Buy

  The largest electronics retail chain in the world, Best Buy reported strong revenue during the third quarter and predicted higher earnings toward the end of the year, setting high expectations ahead of the holiday sales. The company said the tariffs did not have a major impact on its revenue after lowering its revenue forecast in August due to the Trump administration’s threat of tariffs on Chinese goods

  Unsurprisingly, employees at the Minnesota-based company gave the most money — $18,273 — to Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) among the Democratic presidential candidates. Sanders follows closely behind, receiving $17,384 from company employees. The company’s PAC gave $91,500 to federal lawmakers and $15,000 each to the Democratic and Republican Senate-focused party committees. 

  The company spent $1.1 million this year on lobbying, slightly down from last year. As U.S.-China trade tensions loomed, Best Buy’s lobbyists centered around trade issues with China and steel and aluminum tariffs. The electronics chain, which has long advocated for lower corporate tax rates, reaped benefits from the enactment of Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 and is now lobbying on the implementation of the legislation this year.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 11/27/2019 – 21:55

  Tags

  Business Finance

  Politics

  

• Etiquette Coach Recommends Thanksgiving 'Safe Space' For Inevitable Political Arguments
  Etiquette Coach Recommends Thanksgiving ‘Safe Space’ For Inevitable Political Arguments

  As Americans gather for Thanksgiving once again, this year’s feast is bound to include heated debates over impeachment, geopolitics and manifest destiny as we live through one of the most polarizing periods in modern history.

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  And while Thanksgiving hosts may try to steer the conversation to lighter topics such as football and checking in on the lives of relatives who don’t keep in touch, there may be no way to avoid the giant elephants in the room.

  “If somebody comes in and they’re not on the Trump train, so to speak, they get a little bit of an airing,” Alex Triantafilou told the Associated Press. Triantafilou (pronounced tree-aunt-a-FEE-loo), an attorney and chairman of the Hamilton County Republican Party in Ohio, added that it’s “usually in fun.”

  But sometimes it goes past fun.

  Wright recalls Thanksgivings with offensive comments that strained relations. Mindy Nagel, a physical therapist with liberal views, has unfriended her conservative brother on Facebook over his political posts and said she’ll be “surrounded” by people who disagree with her politically at her in-laws’ Thanksgiving.

  “Politics is the elephant in the room,” she said. Her hosts will probably turn off conservative Fox News while she’s there, Nagel said, but there will likely be someone who “tries to stir the pot” by raising Trump and impeachment with her. –AP

  Safe spaces, happy families?

  What to do when your cousin starts rattling off all the ways that Orange Man Bad™ and you’re a Nazi for supporting him? According to Los Angeles-based etiquette coach Elaine Swann, you should set up a special room with snacks for family members who want to talk politics, and designate a ‘calm’ family member to moderate.

  Elaine Swann, a Los Angeles-based etiquette coach, advises hosts to have a plan to deal with polarizing discussions amid “all this talk about impeachment” in the air, along with the aromas of oyster dressing and freshly baked pumpkin pies.

  “I do think it’s healthy for people to express themselves and to have those conversations,” said Swann, who will host her family’s Thanksgiving. “My advice is to take a route to allow some sort of platform, but with guidelines.”

  One tactic: sequester the debates. She’ll have a room away from the dining table stocked with snacks for people who want to talk politics. She also suggests designating a calm family member as a combination moderator-peacekeeper. –AP

  “My preference would be to not have the conversations at Thanksgiving,” said Triantafilou, a former judge. “I’d rather watch football and leave politics behind.”

  A Thunderdome is another option…

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 11/27/2019 – 21:30

• Hong Kong Is In An Unwinnable Position
  Hong Kong Is In An Unwinnable Position

  Authored by Bruce Wilds via Advancing Times blog,

  It is difficult to be optimistic about Hong Kong over the long-term. If you want to call a spade a spade you might even go as far as to say, Hong Kong is doomed. For months hundreds of thousands and at times over a million Hong Kong citizens have taken to the streets to protest several proposed amendments concerning how they are governed. The protesters, predominantly young people, some dressed in black and wearing face masks are often seen dragging metal barriers, linking arms, closing off roads, and surrounding government buildings.

  Still, it is bigger than this, civic groups and small businesses have joined in at times with general strikes and school boycotts to “defend Hong Kong.” This started over an amendment that included a mechanism for extraditions to mainland China that triggered fears that Beijing could detain people in Hong Kong and try them on the mainland under China’s more opaque legal system. Mounting opposition has stirred from all corners of society, including business-people, lawyers and activists, who say the bill would undermine Hong Kong’s relative autonomy and independent judicial system.

  While you might want to consider the idea Hong Kong has no future as simple doom porn certain social and economic factors are coming together that paint a picture devoid of hope. For the protesters, this has become a damned if you do damned if you don’t situation. While Hong Kong is considered a city by most people, it is officially the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People’s Republic of China. With over 7.4 million people of various nationalities in a 1,104-square-kilometre territory. it is one of the most densely populated places in the world. For many years the area flourished as a tax haven for the British and European elite. The continued viability of Hong Kong was questionable even before the Brits turned it over to China.

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  Hong Kong Is Most Likely Doomed

  Anyone with a knowledge of how repressive governments work will tell you when you think those in charge have surrendered to the cries of the people victory often turns out to be fleeting. As soon as the people return to simply living their lives, the ugliness they crushed will rematerialize. It may be in a slightly different form but it will reemerge. For the people of Hong Kong, the ugliness is China’s government forcing its will and way of life upon them. Unfortunately, no matter what those of us living in other countries tell themselves, this is not limited to China.

  The rise of totalitarianism and Orwellian rule is surging across the globe with governments nibbling away the rights of the individual for the “greater good”. Technology is key in employing tools such as facial recognition and keeping records of our communications. This includes things like China’s social scoring program that rewards and punishes citizens for their behavior.  Adding to tensions, the United States Senate unanimously passed the “Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019”, and the House of Representatives then passed the same bill by a 417 to 1. The Chinese consider this a slap in the face and an assault on their sovereignty.

  Circling back to Hong Kong, a big problem is that as the protests turn violent it gives China justification to lower the hammer and crush those standing against it. This, of course, would be done “for the greater good.” The narrative that the protesters are destroying  businesses, companies, shopping malls, subway stations, and the economy is difficult to dispute. The decline in tourist stands as a testimony this has effected Hong Kong’s hard-earned reputation as a safe international business center.

  It is logical to think that China has been busy gathering information on its enemies in Hong Kong and even if protests subside China will be slow to forget what they have done. This means Hong Kong is living under a cloud and most likely China will work hard in coning years to diminish its future by always putting other areas first, call it discrimination if you like. In a study, the Hong Kong Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies asked 707 individuals by phone in late September if they would leave the city because of the turmoil. More than 42% answered yes, this is up from 34% last December. Almost a quarter of these respondents claim they have started plans to leave which includes things like getting out of housing leases, selling their homes and cars, and packing up their possessions.

  The political chaos was the most significant element triggering a desire to move. The two largest factors being “too much political dispute or social cleavage” (27.9%) and “no democracy in Hong Kong” (21.5%). Adding to the desire to flee was the fact about 20% of the respondents had no confidence that China or Hong Kong would address overcrowded living conditions. Unfortunately, it is generally those with the best education and most money that have the option to actuality leave. This increases the possibility that the area will suffer financially over the long run as capital and wealth take flight to areas with better prospects.

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  Chinese Troops Have Assembled Near By

  It has been suggested that some of the most extreme violence could be coming from Chinese agents whose goal is to elevate tension to the point where China has no choice but to send in troops to restore order. Beijing has warned for months that Hong Kong’s insubordination will no longer be tolerated. Even a video, complete with dramatic aggressive music was published by the state-owned tabloid Global Times, it showed “The People’s Armed Police assembling in Shenzhen, a city bordering Hong Kong.” The video highlights the idea China is ready to move in. It does not take a rocket scientist to see the writing on the wall, at some point things will most likely get ugly very fast.

  The claims the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and China’s economy would pay a terrible price for a brutal assault may be overdone. We should remember the protesters have been painted as violent thugs going forth every day to harm the economy and other Hongkongers. The big question is whether China moving in and hammering the protesters into submission will trigger a war. If so, such a war has the potential to go global with a great number of nations weighing in. Still, how could you come to the wayward territory’s defense? It is both far away and impossible to defend. For Trump and America to draw a line in the sand and not carrying through would be most embarrassing indeed.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 11/27/2019 – 21:05

• Here's How Much Taxes Will You Pay Under President "…"
  Here’s How Much Taxes Will You Pay Under President “…”

  With the chasm between the world’s rich and poor wider than ever before, the topic of wealth redistribution and income inequality…

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  … is understandably at the forefront of not just the 2020 presidential campaign but is daily cooler talk across America if not the world. Furthermore, in a stunning turn of events, on Sunday we reported that none other than Fed president Kashkari recently came out with a “jaw-dropping” policy proposal, seeking to add wealth redistribution to the Fed’s official mandates , which only made it clear that the Minneapolis Fed president is unaware that redistributing wealth is precisely why the Fed was created in 1913 and why over the past 10 years the rich have gotten richer than ever before as the middle class has shrank to banana republic levels.

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  Confirming that fears about wealth redistribution are indeed real, and not just the emotional side-effect of highly charged political theater, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development is now spearheading an initiative for a new global tax system for consumer-facing businesses: the WSJ reported that the OECD is scheduled to meet Thursday and Friday in Paris “to discuss a proposal that would set a standard tax rate for a company’s global operations and allow individual governments to tax profits above that based on sales accounted for by each country.”

  In short, officials at the very highest levels are now coordinating the formation of a global taxation system, one which will affect not only corporations but also very wealthy individuals, whose ability to arbitrage (read flee) highly taxed jurisdiction and redomicile in tax havens such as Monaco has long been seen as a hurdle to any truly punitive tax redistribution initiatives.

  Yet while the world is gradually seeking to impose a uniform system, all eyes will be on the US, especially after November 2020 when America’s next president will either be Donald Trump for another 4 years, or one of his far more progressive challengers.

  So instead of debating the pros and cons of any one given tax platform – there are plenty of other venues that do that every day – here is a chart comparing what total tax rate any given US president will impose on US taxpayers, broken out by income group. Clearly where there is the greatest variation is in the treatment of the Top 1% – traditionally the group that has paid the bulk of US income tax  and especially the “Forbes 400.”

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  And, courtesy of Deutsche Bank, here are a few bonus taxation charts:

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  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 11/27/2019 – 20:40

  Tags

  Social Issues

  Business Finance

  

• Democracy Is The Ideal Distraction
  Democracy Is The Ideal Distraction

  Authored by Jeff Thomas via InternationalMan.com,

  In the days of yore, there were kings. Everybody could agree to hate the king because he was rich and well-fed, when most of his minions were not.

  Then, a more effective system was invented: democracy. Its originators had in mind a system whereby the populace could choose their leader from amongst themselves – thereby gaining a leader who understood them and represented them.

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  In short order, those amongst the populace who wished to rule found a way to game the new system in a way that would allow them to, in effect, be kings, but to do so from behind the scenes, whilst retaining the illusion of democracy.

  The formula is to create two opposing political parties. Each is led by someone who’s presented as being a “representative of the people.”

  You then present the two parties as having opposing views on governance. It matters little what the differences are. In fact, you can have the differences be as obscure and arbitrary as, say, gay rights or abortion, and they will work as well as any other differences. What matters is that your two parties object to each other strenuously on the declared issues, working the electorate into a lather.

  Once you have each group hating the other group “on principle,” you’re home free. At that point, you’ve successfully completed the distraction. The electorate now believe that, whatever the trumped-up issues are, they’re critical to the ethical governance of the country.

  Most importantly, the electorate actually believe that their future well-being depends on the outcome of the next election – that it will decide whether their own view on the issues will prevail.

  In a dictatorship, the leaders try to convince the people to support the dictatorship by claiming that more than 90% of the people voted for the dictator. But this is primitive thinking. It results in the same focused anti-leader sentiment that plagued the kings.

  Far better to have the people fail to recognise who their actual rulers are and focus on the candidates, who are mere bit players and are changed as needed.

  And, in a country where the illusion of democracy has become refined, the rulers come to understand that elections should not result in an overwhelming victory for one party or the other. Quite the opposite. If it can be arranged effectively, the best election is one that results in a 51% to 49% split.

  This ensures that the 49% will not lose hope – that they’ll be both frustrated and angry at their near-miss, and redouble their efforts in the next election in order to have a win. And the 51% will wipe their collective brow in relief at having won, but will fear losing their slim advantage next time around.

  Both parties must remain both hopeful and fearful. Keep them focused on each other – hating each other – and they’ll never figure out that you control both candidates like marionettes. The focus should never be on you, the real ruling class.

  It’s also quite important to switch winners often. The ball should bounce back and forth from one party to the other frequently, allowing each winning party to dump the other party’s actual accomplishments when they take over.

  However, just as important, the new winning party does not rescind the more oppressive accomplishments of the previous party. In this way, it becomes possible for the only long-term accomplishments to be the growing power of the government over the population, not advances for the populace.

  And of course, this, by definition, means that the real rulers, the perennial group of individuals who control those who are elected – continually expand their power and wealth at the expense of the electorate.

  But what of the candidates themselves? Do they recognise that they’re mere foot soldiers in the game?

  Ideally, no. At any given time in any society, there are sufficient people whose egos exceed their abilities. Such individuals are ideal as candidates, as they tend to love the limelight, but will easily cave to the desires of those who made their candidacy possible. No candidate at the higher levels ever attains office without owing his soul to his backers. That ensures that, in spite of their public bravado, they remain controllable by their masters.

  What’s extraordinary in this picture is that it’s possible for the populace to figure out the scam and yet, still believe that they live in a democratic system in which their vote may decide the future of the country.

  Increasingly, particularly in Europe and North America, the citizenry are becoming aware that the Deep State collectively rule the countries. They understand that this largely invisible group of people are the true rulers, yet they vainly imagine that somehow the puppet leaders that they elect have the power to effect a solution.

  In the UK, the electorate imagine that Boris Johnson will actually take them out of the European Union.

  Instead, he delivers a Brexit deal that’s a reheated version of the Theresa May Brexit deal, which is not Brexit at all, but a perverse form of remain.

  The Brexit debate is mere window dressing for democracy, whilst the Deep State carries on, according to its plan – the unelected EU government rules the UK.

  In America, Donald Trump tweets in the morning that he will take US troops out of Syria. No doubt, as an individual, this is what he hopes he’ll be allowed to do.

  But he’s immediately castigated by the media. He’s given his marching orders from the Deep State that, once again, he’s to do as he’s told. By the next day, Mister Trump announces a reversal of his decision.

  There will be no end to the Middle East war for the US. It’s far too profitable. The discussion is mere window dressing for democracy, whilst the Deep State carries on, according to its plan.

  Time after time, regardless of how adamant the marionettes are that they’ll follow the will of the people and save the day, in every case, the people’s hopes are dashed and the national policy reverts to business as usual.

  In every case, the true leaders create the problems, cash in on them, then present the government as the solution to the problems, then cash in again.

  In every case, the electorate pick up the tab and, rather than rebel, vainly hope that the next election will provide them with a group of marionettes who will actually deliver them from evil.

  What’s astonishing is not that the Deep State lives only for its own ends, but that the populace recognise that it exists and still imagine that change from the status quo is possible.

  Voting is not intended to count. It’s meant to be the pacifier that’s inserted into the public mouth periodically, when the public become grumpy that they must submit to kings.

  *  *  *

  Democracy offers a false sense of hope that things will change for the better. In all likelihood, the public will vote itself more and more “free stuff” until it causes an economic crisis. Unfortunately, there’s little any individual can practically do to change the course of these trends in motion. The best you can and should do is to stay informed so that you can protect yourself in the best way possible, and even profit from the situation. That’s precisely bestselling author Doug Casey and his team just released an urgent new video. It explains what exactly is happening and how you can protect yourself. Click here to watch it now.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 11/27/2019 – 20:15

  Tags

  Politics

  

• In "Message To Tehran" Iraqi Protesters Torch Another Iranian Consulate
  In “Message To Tehran” Iraqi Protesters Torch Another Iranian Consulate

  The month of protest mayhem has continued in Iraq, on Wednesday once again escalating into attacks on Iranian and pro-Iranian bases and sites, especially in the restive southern provinces, where Tehran’s proxies in Iraq are considered strongest. 

  Reuters reports, “Iraqi protesters stormed and set fire to the Iranian consulate in the southern city of Najaf on Wednesday, police and civil defense sources said.”

  Consular staff had reportedly evacuated as mobs of angry demonstrators gathered prior to the incident, which involved Iraqis storming the compound and breaching the gates. A mass blaze then erupted from within during the evening hours as social media videos quickly put online show. 

  Iraqis attacking Iranian consulate in Najaf. Symbolism hard to miss. #IranProtests #IraqProtests #irancables pic.twitter.com/rCajjKpSXz

  — Farnaz Fassihi (@farnazfassihi) November 27, 2019

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  It marks the second such mob attack on an Iranian diplomatic compound in under a month, after the Iranian consulate in the southern Shia holy city of Karbala came under attack and was torched on Nov. 3.

  Iraq remains a sectarian powder keg waiting to erupt further, given anti-corruption protests have quickly turned to target neighboring Iran’s influence. 

  Humanitarian monitors have counted hundreds dead among the protests which have raged for over a month, with most international media citing over 300 killed and many thousands wounded. 

  In the last 20 days both #Iranian Consulates in #Karbala and #Najaf set on fire. Bright message to #Tehran and its proxies in #Iraq.

  — Barzan Sadiq (@BarzanSadiq) November 27, 2019

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  Iran-backed Iraqi Shia militias have reportedly been increasingly involved in assisting security forces in putting down the popular unrest which has swept the country – by some accounts even deploying snipers. 

  This has increased fears that the even larger, but on the whole much more peaceful ongoing protests in nearby Lebanon could also soon become armed and sectarian just in Iraq. 

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  Kurdistan-24 journalist Barzan Sadiq described the consular attacks this month as a “Bright message to Tehran and its proxies in Iraq.”

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 11/27/2019 – 19:50

  Tags

  War Conflict

  Politics

  

• The Lessons From Japan's Monetary Experiment
  The Lessons From Japan’s Monetary Experiment

  Authored by Daniel Lacalle via DLacalle.com,

  A recent article in the Financial Times, “Abenomics provides a lesson for the rich world“, mentioned that the experiment started by prime minister Shinzo Abe in the early 2010s should serve as an important warning for rich countries. Unfortunately, the article’s “lessons” were rather disappointing. These were mainly that the central bank can do a lot more than the ECB and the Fed are doing, and that Japan is not doing so badly. I disagree.

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  The failure of Abenomics has been phenomenal. The balance sheet of the central bank of Japan has ballooned to more than 100% of the country’s GDP, the central bank owns almost 70% of the country’s ETFs and is one of the top 10 shareholders in the majority of the largest companies of the Nikkei index. Government debt to GDP has swelled to 236%, and despite the record-low cost of debt, the government spends almost 22% of the budget on interest expenses. All of this to achieve what?

  None of the results that were expected from the massive monetary experiment, inventively called QQE (quantitative and qualitative easing) have been achieved, even remotely. Growth is expected to be one of the weakest in the world in 2020, according to the IMF, and the country has consistently missed both its inflation and economic growth targets, while the balance sheet of the central banks and the country’s debt soared.

  Real wages have been stagnant for years, and economic activity continues to be as poor as it was in the previous two decades of constant stimulus.

  The main lessons that global economies should learn from Japan are the following:

  • No country can offset the problem of demographics and productivity with higher debt and money printing. It simply kicks the can further but leaves the economy weaker and in permanent stagnation.

  • The technology and productivity challenges cannot be solved incentivizing malinvestment and government spending. It is a massive constant transfer of wealth from the productive to the unproductive, which makes high productivity sectors stall and crony and obsolete sectors remain zombified.

  • Doing the same with different names will not generate a different outcome. Calling the same policy something different will not make citizens get excited about the economy.

  • The wrong diagnosis will lead to worsening outcomes. When the government is surrounded by economists that tell them that the problem of the economy is that there are too many savings, the government will decide to raise taxes and create a larger problem attacking consumption. With private debt at 221% of GDP. Japan has many issues, none of them being a “savings glut”.

  • If you abandon structural reforms, the results will be worse. The QQE program was based on three “arrows”: monetary policy, government spending, and structural reforms. Guess which arrow they forgot to implement? Exactly. Structural reforms never happened, and when they did, they came in the form of higher taxes and more interventionism, the opposite of what the economy needed.

  • The biggest lesson from Japan is not that the central bank can buy equities and keep kicking the can further. The biggest lesson from Japan is that monetary and fiscal policy is not designed to kickstart the economy and improve growth or productivity but to perpetuate the imbalances created by excessive government intervention and transfer wealth from salaries and savings to the government and the indebted crony sectors.

  • The lesson from Japan is that no government can make two plus two equal twenty-two, but they can prolong budget imbalances for much longer than logic would dictate.

  The true lesson from Japan is that central planners will continue to prefer to gradually nationalize the economy before even considering a moderate reduction in government size and control of the economy. The result will be almost no growth, poor productivity, and rising discontent, but the bureaucratic machine will be safe.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 11/27/2019 – 19:25

  Tags

  Business Finance

  

• California DMV Rakes In $50 Million Per Year Selling Personal Information
  California DMV Rakes In $50 Million Per Year Selling Personal Information

  The California DMV has been selling the personal information of registered drivers to the tune of $50 million per year, according to a DMV document obtained by Motherboard.

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  In a previous investigation, Motherboard found DMVs in other states have been selling non-optional information drivers must provide in order to obtain a license, such as names, physical addresses and car registration information.

  And while California didn’t disclose exactly who they’re selling to, other states were making a handy profit from customers which include data broker LexisNexis, Experian, private investigators and others.

  In a public record acts request, Motherboard asked the California DMV for the total dollar amounts paid by commercial requesters of data for the past six years. The responsive document shows the total revenue in financial year 2013/14 as $41,562,735, before steadily climbing to $52,048,236 in the financial year 2017/18. –Motherboard

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  The California DMV told Motherboard that requestors may include insurance companies, vehicle manufacturers and prospective employers.

  When asked if the DMV relied on this revenue, public information officer Marty Greenstein wrote that the revenue is applied to highway and public safety “including availability of insurance, risk assessment, vehicle safety recalls, traffic studies, emissions research, background checks, and for pre- and existing employment purposes.”

  “The DMV takes its obligation to protect personal information very seriously. Information is only released pursuant to legislative direction, and the DMV continues to review its release practices to ensure information is only released to authorized persons/entities and only for authorized purposes. The DMV also audits requesters to ensure proper audit logs are maintained and that employees are trained in the protection of DMV information and anyone having access to this information sign a security document,” he added.

  So, who exactly is California selling drivers’ non-optional information to?

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 11/27/2019 – 19:00

  Tags

  Labor

  Business Finance

  

• President Trump's Defense
  President Trump’s Defense

  Authored by Robert Gore via StraightLineLogic.com,

  Democratic representatives should think twice before they vote to impeach President Trump.

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  I thought I had said all I was going to say on “Ukrainegate” in my article “Make the Truth Irrelevant.” Then I read a column on the Internet by Wall Street Journal columnist Peggy Noonan whose very title: “Trump’s Defenders Have No Defense” (WSJ, 11/21/19) bespeaks its idiocy. Unfortunately, it also represents a lot of what’s being peddled by the mainstream media.

  How would Noonan or anyone else outside Trump’s circle know whether he does or does not have a defense when the rules of the only body that has pursued the case against him preclude him from offering a defense? In the House impeachment hearings, Trump’s defenders cannot call their own witnesses, cannot confront the whistleblower whose complaint launched the case, cannot challenge hearsay evidence and have it excluded, and cannot probe the motives or possibly illegal behavior of his accusers.

  Noonan further embarrasses herself with the following: “As to the impeachment itself, the case has been so clearly made you wonder what exactly the Senate will be left doing. How will they hold a lengthy trial with a case this clear?” She reveals her own ignorance of the law and facts of this particular case, and complete lack of decency or sense of fair play, rendering such a judgment after hearing only one side of the case.

  Noonan has prompted this analysis of possibilities concerning Trump’s defense in a Senate trial. It assumes that standard American judicial rules, procedures, and principles will be in force during the trial.

  Disclaimer: I am a lawyer, but I am an inactive member of the California Bar Association and have never practiced law.

  The best case for a defense attorney is one in which the attorney can say: Assume what the prosecution is saying is true, my client has not broken the law or committed a crime. During his phone call with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, President Trump asked for investigations of three matters, but he did not explicitly link receipt of US aid that had been held up to Zelensky conducting those investigations. Suppose, for argument’s sake, that he had either explicitly asked for that quid pro quo or that Zelensky could reasonably infer he was asking for such a quid pro quo. Trump’s first line of defense would be to challenge the ubiquitous characterization—at least among Democrats and the media―of such a link as a crime.

  According to the transcript of the call, Trump asked Zelensky to look into the company Crowdstrike, which has been the only entity allowed to examine the DNC servers that were allegedly hacked by the Russians. In a related query, he eluded to possible Ukrainian involvement in initiating the Russiagate fiasco. Later in the phone call, he said: “There’s a lot of talk about Biden’s son, that Biden stopped the prosecution and a lot of people want to find out about that so whatever you can do with the Attorney General would be great. Biden went around bragging that he stopped the prosecution so if you can look into it… It sounds horrible to me.”

  Assume for argument’s sake that Trump was holding up aid to get Zelensky to investigate Crowdstrike, possible initiation of Russiagate, and the Bidens. Nobody is calling the first two requests illegal because investigations would not directly redound to Trump’s political benefit (but might well redound to his accusers’ political detriment, see below). Only the third request, if receipt of aid was conditioned on compliance, has been termed illegal, because it could harm Trump’s political opponent, Joe Biden, and presumably benefit Trump.

  What if the subject of that third request was not Biden and son, but rather some nonpolitical but prominent US figure and son, the investigation of whom would yield no political benefit to Trump? The president would have a strong argument that there was a prima facie (literally translated as “at first face” or “at first appearance”) case of corruption against the nonpolitical figure and his son. He could assert that he had a duty as the chief executive of the laws of the US to launch a US investigation, and to press—because so much of the alleged corruption happened in Ukraine and involved Ukrainian citizens, companies, government bodies, and other entities—the Ukrainian president to launch an investigation. The US and Ukraine have a treaty, Mutual Legal Assistance in Criminal Matters ratified by the Senate in 2000 and signed by Bill Clinton. Trump could argue that under that treaty he would be well within his powers to ask for such an investigation. He could cite a letter Clinton sent to the Senate recommending passage of the treaty, which lists a number of ways assistance can be rendered, with a final catch-all for “any other form of assistance not prohibited by the laws of the requested state.”

  If Trump then explicitly tied US financial and military assistance meant for Ukraine to President Zelensky initiating that investigation against the nonpolitical father and son, no one would bat an eye. In fact, many would commend Trump for applying that leverage. US foreign aid has often had explicit provisions about reducing corruption as a condition of the recipient country receiving the aid. A US president informally linking the two would be a nonevent.

  It only became an event because the figures to be investigated were Joe and Hunter Biden. Here the proper question for Trump to ask is: So what? Yes, Trump might benefit politically from such an investigation, prosecutors and politicians often benefit politically from prosecutions, but does that exempt the Bidens from investigation of what are at least prima facie instances of possible corruption? Implicit in the Democrats’ case against Trump is the placement of the Bidens above the laws that would apply to anyone else (except perhaps other favored political figures).

  If the prosecution in the Trump impeachment trial wants to contest that characterization and conclusion, then Trump’s defense should insist on calling father and son as witnesses to explain and be cross-examined. How does Hunter’s dealings with Burisma not make out prima facie corruption? How does Joe’s insistence that the prosecutor who was investigating Burisma be fired, and his threat to put a hold on foreign aid to Ukraine not make out prima facie corruption? Hunter, Joe, and their defenders can explain why there should have been no Ukranian investigation, and why Trump should not have used all the leverage he had, including putting a hold on aid—just as Joe Biden threatened to do (and bragged about in a speech before the Council on Foreign Relations) to get the prosecutor fired—to prompt Ukraine to launch such an investigation.

  If what Trump did is a crime, so too is what Joe Biden did. However, because Biden publicly bragged about what he did, proving Biden’s criminal culpability would be far easier than proving Trump’s. 

  It may be news to Peggy Noonan, but unlike in the House proceedings, in the Senate Trump will be able to avail himself of two bulwarks of the American legal system: the Sixth Amendment and the hearsay exclusion. The Sixth Amendment protects defendants’ rights, “to be confronted with the witnesses against him;” and “to have compulsory process for obtaining witnesses in his favor.”

  The hearsay exclusion bars “testimony in court of a statement made out of the court, the statement being offered as an assertion to show the truth of matters asserted therein, and thus resting for its value upon the credibility of the out-of-court asserter.” Mutyambizi v. State, 33 Md.App. 55, 363 A.2d 511, 518. Hearsay is “evidence not proceeding from from the personal knowledge of the witness, but from the mere repetition of what he heard others say. That which does not derive its value solely from the credit of the witness, but rests mainly on the veracity and competency of other persons. The very nature of the evidence shows its weakness, and it is admitted only in specified cases from necessity.” Black’s Law Dictionary, 5th Edition, 1979, West Publishing Co. The 6th Amendment and the hearsay exclusion are related, they both embody fundamental fairness by recognizing a defendant’s right to confront and cross-examine witnesses against him.

  While Adam Schiff was able to keep the whistleblower whose memorandum initiated the House’s impeachment investigation from testifying, such protection would not be available in the Senate trial. Trump has the right to confront his accusers. There are allegations that Schiff and members of his staff conferred with the whistleblower before the memorandum was publicly disclosed. Trump’s defense team could argue that Schiff, by conferring with the whistleblower and leading the House impeachment investigation, was also an accuser within the meaning of the 6th Amendment. If that argument prevailed, Schiff would have to testify and be cross-examined. Who knows where that might lead.

  Trump would also have the 6th Amendment right to call friendly witnesses, not just to dispute the particulars of his alleged criminal conduct, but to challenge the credibility of adverse witnesses. Again, who knows where that might lead.

  Trump would also contest the whistleblower’s testimony, and the testimony from many of the witnesses who appeared in the House proceedings, as hearsay. There is no doubt that the testimony is hearsay, so it would have to be admitted under one of the hearsay exclusion’s exceptions, which would be problematic. Even if it was admitted, the witnesses would be subject to cross-examination, and that didn’t always go so well for Schiff and company in the House. Noonan cited Ambassador to the EU Gordon Sondland’s testimony concerning the alleged quid pro quo that, “everyone was in the loop, it was no secret.” She said his testimony “was kind of the whole ballgame.” Watch Republican Representative Mike Turner’s shred that testimony.

  Perhaps Noonan didn’t see that video.

  The one item of evidence that’s clearly admissible is the transcript of Trump’s call with President Zelensky. The authors of that transcript would be available to testify as to its authenticity, which means it fits within a hearsay exception. It’s also conceivable that Zelensky, Trump, or both could testify as to the subject matter, tenor, and tone of their conversation.

  The transcript contains no explicit mention of a quid pro quo. Both Trump and Zelensky deny a quid pro quo. If the hearsay presented in the House and the whistleblower’s hearsay are barred in the Senate, it would severely weaken the prosecution’s case. It may be news to Peggy Noonan, but the prosecution has the burden of proof (although it’s unclear if the beyond-a-reasonable-doubt standard would apply). Without the hearsay, the prosecution won’t have much in the way of proof, and there is evidence that arguably tends to exonerate Trump. Supporting the two presidents’ assertions of no quid pro quo,  Zelensky has not initiated an investigation of the Bidens, and Trump did eventually release the aid to Ukraine, although he may have been prompted to do so by the House, which was set to override his hold and release the aid.

  In a conventional criminal case, the defendant can attack the integrity, impartiality, and conduct of the prosecution. If Trump is allowed to do so, he would have two strong lines of attack. Noonan approves of “the sober testimony from respectable diplomats,” who made it “clear in a new and public way that pretty much everyone around the president has been forced for three years to work around his poor judgment and unpredictability in order to do their jobs.” Whether that’s true or not, what is such testimony even doing in an impeachment investigation? Trump’s managerial style, and more importantly, his publicly expressed skepticism concerning some of the policies championed by “respectable diplomats” cannot be considered “Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors” (Article II, Section 4, US Constitution). Trump could object to such testimony on grounds of relevancy and argue that his accusers were trying to criminalize differences in policy and perceived shortcomings in his personal style.

  Trump’s other line of attack would be to illuminate the Democrats’ many questionable ties to Ukraine, and argue that the real aim of their impeachment effort is to prevent him from possibly exposing and jeopardizing those ties.

  Ostensibly, Ukraine is a minefield for Democrats. In 2014, the US sponsored a coup against Ukraine’s duly elected president, Viktor Yanukovych, who had aligned the country with Russia rather than the EU. That coup has not worked out well for the US. Russia quickly annexed Crimea, which had been part of Ukraine, and has aided a eastern Ukrainian separatist movement that favors Russia and bitterly resents the coup.

  The puppet Ukraine government has been a corrupt money pit for Western aid, loans, and loan guarantees, featuring, among many questionable characters, a coterie that reveres Nazi Germany and the role it played in World War II. The Ukrainian government is a loser, but it’s our loser and Trump has doubled down on Obama’s failure, backing monetary aid and weapons shipments to the beleaguered nation.

  Russiagate was launched by Ukrainian officials who disseminated rumors in 2016 that Trump was in league with Russia and later, openly questioned his suitability for the presidency. The DNC dispatched a contractor, Alexandra Chalupa, to Ukraine to search for compromising material on Paul Manafort, then Trump’s campaign chairman. In other words, the Democrats sought information from a foreign power to influence the 2016 election, precisely what they groundlessly accuse Trump of doing.

  CrowdStrike, the firm that investigated the server the DNC wouldn’t let the FBI or NSA touch, was founded by Ukrainian Dmitri Alperovitch, a senior fellow of the anti-Russian Atlantic Council think tank, and funded by a fanatically anti-Russian oligarch, Victor Pinchuk, who donated at least $25 million to the Clinton Foundation before the 2016 election. CrowdStrike never even produced a final report on its Russian hacking investigation, and had to revise and retract statements it used to support its conclusion.

  – “Make the Truth Irrelevant,” Robert Gore, SLL, 10/16/19

  The reason the Democrats have repeated “quid pro quo” over and over is because that’s the one narrow point they can focus on without their Ukrainian shenanigans blowing up in their faces. Trump mentioned CrowdStrike and the possible Ukrainian initiation of the fruitless Russiagate investigation in his call with Zelensky. As the above-cited SLL article makes clear, those are two issues the Democrats definitely want to avoid, and they’re trying mightily to separate the issue of the supposed quid pro quo from the linked issue of Biden father and son’s possible corruption. The Trump defense team should pound the table on the Democrats’ odiferous involvement with Ukraine.

  Impeachment is always a political process. Ultimately, legal considerations will be secondary to politics. However, the Democrats’ political strategy appears as flawed as their legal tactics. Assuming the House votes for impeachment, the case moves from the forum they controlled to the Senate, which the Republicans control. Never underestimate the cowardice of Republican politicians, but they cannot afford to roll on this one, given Trump’s popularity within the party’s rank and file. House Republicans voted unanimously against the impeachment proceedings. Any Republican voting in favor would have risked almost certain defeat in the next election. Republican Senators perceived as not giving Trump a fair trail, or who vote to convict, will suffer political backlash, especially those Senators up for reelection in the next election.

  At the very least, Trump should be able to exercise all the rights afforded defendants in criminal trails. I have suggested ways he can avail himself of those rights, and he can hire attorneys who are far smarter and more experienced than I am. His team can mount a strong defense. Although the mainstream media will be solidly against him, and their commentary will undoubtedly be biased and tendentious, there will be wall-to-wall television coverage and thousands of YouTube videos, so people can see for themselves what transpires.

  Those optics—to use a beloved Washington and media word—could well bolster support for Trump and hurt the Democrats. The Republicans may want to drag his trial out as long as possible. If his defense is effective and the Senate votes not to convict, the Democrats will have given him the last word as the House impeachment hearings fade from memory. He will have a golden campaign issue to rally his base and the Democrats will be even more discredited than they were after the Mueller report (with everyone but there own rabid base).

  Trump’s defenders have a solid defense if they’re given a fair chance to present it in a forum governed by the standard precepts of American law. If Peggy Noonan’s column represents what the Wall Street Journal considers informed thought and commentary, I’m glad I cancelled my subscription long ago.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 11/27/2019 – 18:35

  Tags

  Politics

  

• Furious China Warns "The US Plot Is Doomed", Threatens Retaliation After Trump Signs Hong Kong Democracy Bill
  Furious China Warns “The US Plot Is Doomed”, Threatens Retaliation After Trump Signs Hong Kong Democracy Bill

  Update (2035ET): As expected, China has responded to President Trump’s decision to sign the Hong Kong bill (out of respect for Xi?). China’s foreign ministry says in a statement that America’s decision was “a naked hegemonic act” without offering any details on possible retaliation.

  The United States signed the so-called “Hong Kong Bill of Rights and Democracy” into law. This move seriously interfered with Hong Kong affairs, seriously interfered with China’s internal affairs, and seriously violated international law and basic norms of international relations. It was a naked hegemonic act, and the Chinese government and people firmly opposed it.

  Since the return of Hong Kong to the motherland, “one country, two systems” has achieved universally recognized success, and Hong Kong residents enjoy unprecedented democratic rights in accordance with the law. The United States ignored the facts, turned black and white, and blatantly supported the violent criminals who smashed and burned innocent people, trampled against the rule of law, and endangered social order. They are extremely bad in nature and very dangerous. Their fundamental purpose is to undermine Hong Kong ’s prosperity and stability, The great practice of “one country, two systems” undermines the historical process of the Chinese nation’s great rejuvenation.

  We must tell the US side that Hong Kong is Hong Kong of China, and Hong Kong affairs are purely China’s internal affairs. No foreign government or power has the right to interfere. This so-called bill will only make the Chinese people, including our compatriots in Hong Kong, more aware of the sinister intentions and hegemonic nature of the United States, and it will only make the Chinese people more committed. The US plot is doomed.

  The Chinese Government is unwavering in its determination to oppose any external forces interfering in Hong Kong affairs, its determination to implement the “one country, two systems” policy, and its determination to safeguard national sovereignty, security, and development interests. We advise the United States not to act arbitrarily, or China will resolutely counteract it, and all consequences arising therefrom must be borne by the United States.

  How does Trump’s administration bullshit their way out of this by claiming a trade deal is close? Xi will be forced to respond, leaving Trump unable to offer a lifting of the imminent tariff threat.

  *  *  *

  As we detailed earlier, less than an hour after Trump once again paraded with yet another all-time high in the S&P…

  New Stock Market Record today, AGAIN. Congratulations USA!

  — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 27, 2019

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  … and on day 510 of the trade war, it appears the president was confident enough that a collapse in trade talks won’t drag stocks too far lower, and moments after futures reopened at 6pm, the White House said that Trump had signed the Hong Kong bill backing pro-democracy protesters, defying China and making sure that every trader’s Thanksgiving holiday was just ruined.

  In a late Wednesday statement from the White House, Trump said that:

  I signed these bills out of respect for President Xi, China, and the people of Hong Kong. They are being enacted in the hope that Leaders and Representatives of China and Hong Kong will be able to amicably settle their differences leading to long term peace and prosperity for all.

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  Needless to say, no differences will be “settled amicably” and now China will have no choice but to retaliate, aggressively straining relations with the US, and further complicating Trump’s effort to wind down his nearly two-year old trade war with Beijing.

  Trump’s signing of the bill comes during a period of unprecedented unrest in Hong Kong, where anti-government protests sparked by a now-shelved extradition bill proposal have ballooned into broader calls for democratic reform and police accountability.

  “The Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act reaffirms and amends the United States-Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992, specifies United States policy towards Hong Kong and directs assessment of the political developments in Hong Kong,” the White House said in a statement. “Certain provisions of the act would interfere with the exercise of the president’s constitutional authority to state the foreign policy of the United States.”

  The legislation, S. 1838, which was passed virtually unanimously in both chambers, requires annual reviews of Hong Kong’s special trade status under American law and will allow Washington to suspend said status in case the city does not retain a sufficient degree of autonomy under the “one country, two systems” framework. The bill also sanctions any officials deemed responsible for human rights abuses or undermining the city’s autonomy.

  The House cleared the bill 417-1 on Nov. 20 after the Senate passed it without opposition, veto-proof majorities that left Trump with little choice but to acquiesce, or else suffer bruising fallout from his own party. the GOP.

  Trump also signed into law the PROTECT Hong Kong act, which will prohibit the sale of US-made munitions such as tear gas and rubber bullets to the city’s authorities.

  While many members of Congress in both parties have voiced strong support for protesters demanding more autonomy for the city, Trump had stayed largely silent, even as the demonstrations have been met by rising police violence.

  Until now.

  The bill’s author, Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, said that with the legislation’s enactment, the US now had “new and meaningful tools to deter further influence and interference from Beijing into Hong Kong’s internal affairs.”

  In accordance with the law, the Commerce Department will have 180 days to produce a report examining whether the Chinese government has tried use Hong Kong’s special trading status to import advanced “dual use” technologies in violation of US export control laws. Dual use technologies are those that can have commercial and military applications.

  One other less discussed but notable provision of the Hong Kong Human Rights Act targets media outlets affiliated with China’s government. The new law directs the US secretary of state to “clearly inform the government of the People’s Republic of China that the use of media outlets to spread disinformation or to intimidate and threaten its perceived enemies in Hong Kong or in other countries is unacceptable.”

  The state department should take any such activity “into consideration when granting visas for travel and work in the United States to journalists from the People’s Republic of China who are affiliated with any such media organizations”, the law says.

  * * *

  In the days leading up to Trump’s signature, China’s foreign ministry had urged Trump to prevent the legislation from becoming law, warning the Americans not to underestimate China’s determination to defend its “sovereignty, security and development interests.”

  “If the U.S. insists on going down this wrong path, China will take strong countermeasures,” said China’s foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang at a briefing Thursday in Beijing. On Monday, China’s Vice Foreign Minister Zheng Zeguang summoned the U.S. ambassador, Terry Branstad to express “strong opposition” to what the country’s government considers American interference in the protests, including the legislation, according to statement.

  The new U.S. law comes just as Washington and Beijing showed signs of working toward “phase-one” of deal to ease the trade war. Trump would like the agreement finished in order to ease economic uncertainty for his re-election campaign in 2020, and has floated the possibility of signing the deal in a farm state as an acknowledgment of the constituency that’s borne the brunt of retaliatory Chinese tariffs.

  Last week China’s Vice Premier and chief trade negotiator Liu He said before a speech at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Beijing, that he was “cautiously optimistic” about reaching the phase one accord. He will now have no choice but to amend his statement.

  In anticipation of a stern Chinese rebuke, US equity futures tumbled, wiping out most of the previous day’s gains…

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  … while the yuan slumped over 100 pips in kneejerk response.

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  Still, the generally modest pullback – the S&P was around 2,940 when Trump announced the Phase 1 deal on Oct 11 – suggests that despite Trump’s signature, markets expect a Chinese deal to still come through. That may be an aggressive and overly “hopeful” assumption, especially now that China now longer has a carte blanche to do whatever it wants in Hong Kong, especially in the aftermath of this weekend’s landslide victory for the pro-Democracy camp which won in 17 of the city’s 18 districts.

  “Following last weekend’s historic elections in Hong Kong that included record turnout, this new law could not be more timely in showing strong US support for Hongkongers’ long-cherished freedoms,” said Rubio

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 11/27/2019 – 18:20

  Tags

  Politics

  

• Iran Says Over 700 Banks Were Torched In Vast Protest 'Conspiracy'
  Iran Says Over 700 Banks Were Torched In Vast Protest ‘Conspiracy’

  After early in the week Iran’s top elite Guard commander gave a fiery ‘victory’ speech declaring the mainstay of anti-government protests which gripped major cities across Iran since Nov. 15 had been quelled, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has followed up with denouncing the unrest as a “very dangerous conspiracy”.

  This as according to Reuters Iranian authorities “reported about 731 banks and 140 government sites had been torched in the disturbances.”

  Given the over week-long and government ordered total internet shutdown which had ensued, this claim can’t be independently verified. However, during the opening days of widespread unrest which had been triggered by a sudden fuel price hike by as much as 300% in some places when government subsidies were slashed, initial videos posted online showed dramatic scenes of banks and gas stations being torched.

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  “A deep, vast and very dangerous conspiracy that a lot of money had been spent on… was destroyed by the people,” Khamenei said while addressing members of the paramilitary Basij force. The Basij were among the elite security forces which spearheaded the crackdown against protests.

  Over the past days sizable pro-government demonstrations have largely supplanted the anti-government unrest, which state media has touted as proof the “conspiracy” against the Islamic Republic has failed. 

  On Monday Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Gen. Hossein Salami blamed the US, Saudi Arabia, and Israel for fueling the unrest as part of continued covert war against Iran. “If you cross our red lines, we will destroy you,” he threatened.

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  And it was Interior Minister Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli who gave the total alleged figure of 731 banks and 140 government sites being set on fire during the protests.

  He also claimed that 50 bases used by police and security forces were attacked along with about 70 gas stations burned, according to the official IRNA news agency.

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  Few details or locations were given to support this claim, but it is part of the government’s continued attempt to paint a US and Israeli “hidden hand” as driving the popular anger. 

  Ayatollah Khamenei had previously labeled the protests as driven by “thugs” who were playing into the hands of Iran’s enemies. 

  Burning a bank building by #IranianProtesters in #Behbahan, capital of Behbahan County, #Khuzestan Province, #Iran.

  16th November 2019#IranProtests#IranUprising#IslamicRepublicMustGo#IranRegimeChange pic.twitter.com/7zg5FvDoEq

  — Ahmad Batebi (@radiojibi) November 16, 2019

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  It should be noted that Washington did early on voice support to the protests, sparked initially by the economic crisis in the sanctions-wracked country. The death toll climbed to an estimated 200 dead as protesters clashed with police. 

  Last week Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had issued an unusual call for Iranian protesters to send the United States videos and photos and other evidence “documenting the regime’s crackdown” on protesters. It’s unclear the extent to which Iranian activists and protesters have heeded his call. 

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 11/27/2019 – 18:10

  Tags

  Politics

  War Conflict

  

• What Will The World Look Like After The Trade War?
  What Will The World Look Like After The Trade War?

  Authored by Stephen Roach via Project Syndicate,

  For the last two years, the conflict between the United States and China has dominated the economic and financial-market debate – with good reason. After threats and accusations that long predate US President Donald Trump’s election, rhetoric has given way to action. Over the past 17 months, the world’s two largest economies have become embroiled in the most serious tariff war since the early 1930s. And the weaponization of US trade policy to target perceived company-specific threats such as Huawei has broadened the front in this battle.

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  I am as guilty as anyone of fixating on every twist and turn of this epic struggle between the world’s two economic heavyweights. From the start, it has been a political conflict fought with economic weapons and is likely to remain so for the foreseeable future. What that means, of course, is that the economic and financial-market outlook basically hinges on the political dynamic between the United States and China.

  In that vein, the so-called phase one “skinny” trade deal announced with great fanfare on October 11 may be an important political signal. While the deal, if ever consummated, will have next to no material economic impact, it provides a strong hint that Trump has finally had enough of this trade war. Consumed by domestic political concerns – especially impeachment and the looming 2020 election – it is in Trump’s interest to declare victory and attempt to capitalize on it to counter his problems at home.

  China, for its part, would also like nothing more than to end the trade war. Politics is obviously very different in a one-party state, but the Chinese leadership is not about to capitulate on its core principles of sovereignty and its aspirational mid-century goals of rejuvenation, growth, and development. At the same time, there can be no mistaking downward pressures on the economy. But with Chinese policymakers determined to stay the course of their three-year deleveraging campaign – an important self-inflicted source of the current slowdown – they should be all the more eager to address the trade-related pressures brought about by the conflict with the US.

  Consequently, the political calculus of both countries is coming into closer alignment, with each looking for some face-saving truce. There is always a risk that other complications will arise — recent events in Hong Kong and revelations of developments in China’s Xinjiang Province come to mind. But, at least for the time being, the politics of the trade war are now pointing more toward de-escalation rather than a renewed ratcheting up of tensions.

  If that is the case, and if a phase one accord is reached, it behooves us to ponder what the world will look like after the trade war.

  Several possibilities are at the top of my list: deglobalization, decoupling, and trade diversion.

  • Deglobalization is unlikely. Like the first wave of globalization that ended ignominiously between World War I and the Great Depression, the current wave has generated a mounting backlash. Populism is rearing its ugly head around the world, and tensions over income and wealth inequality – aggravated by fears that technological innovations such as artificial intelligence will undermine job security – are dominating the political discourse. Yet the climactic event that underscored the demise of the first wave of globalization was a 60% collapse in world trade in the early 1930s. Notwithstanding the current political dysfunction, the odds of a similar outcome today are extremely low.

  • Global decoupling is also unlikely. Reflecting the explosive growth in global value chains (GVCs) over the past 25 years, the world is woven together more tightly than ever before. That has transformed global competition away from the country-specific paradigm of the past to a far more fragmented competition between widely distributed platforms of inputs, components, design, and assembly functions. A recent IMF study found that GVCs accounted for fully 73% of the rapid growth in global trade that occurred over the 20-year period from 1993 to 2013. Enabled by irreversible trends of plunging transportation costs and technological breakthroughs in logistics and sourcing, the GVC linkages that have come to underpin global economic integration are at little risk of decoupling.

  • Trade diversion is another matter altogether. As I have long argued, bilateral trade conflicts – even a bilateral decoupling – can do nothing to resolve multilateral imbalances. Putting pressure on one of many trading partners – precisely what the US is doing when it squeezes China in an effort to reduce its merchandise trade deficits with 102 countries – is likely to backfire. That’s because America’s multilateral trade deficit reflects a profound shortfall of domestic saving that will only get worse as the federal budget deficit now veers out of control. Without addressing this chronic saving problem, targeting China will mean pushing the Chinese piece of the multilateral deficit on to America’s other trading partners. Such diversion will shift trade to higher-cost foreign sourcing – the functional equivalent of a tax hike on US consumers.

  Trade truce or not, a protracted economic struggle between the US and China has already begun.

  A cease-fire in the current battle is nothing more than a politically expedient pause in what is likely to be an enduring Cold War-like conflict. That should worry the US, which is devoid of a long-term strategic framework. China is not. That is certainly the message from Sun Tzu in The Art of War: “When your strategy is deep and far-reaching … you can win before you even fight.”

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 11/27/2019 – 17:45

  Tags

  Politics

  

• Scathing Reports Document Worker Abuses At Amazon Warehouses Just In Time For Holiday Rush
  Scathing Reports Document Worker Abuses At Amazon Warehouses Just In Time For Holiday Rush

  Amazon has repeatedly insisted that reports about the allegedly terrible working conditions in its “fulfillment center” warehouses are overblown, and that it’s workers are treated no differently than any other warehouse worker. To try and save face, Amazon announced last year that it would hike pay to at least $15 for thousands of workers in its warehouses and elsewhere.

  But the abuses have apparently continued, and a series of reports released just days before the beginning of the holiday shopping season highlighted Amazon’s abuses of both its workers and the public welfare system.

  The report that drew the most attention was a joint project between the Reveal Center for Investigative Reporting and The Atlantic which found that Amazon warehouse workers are seriously injured on the job at twice the rate of other warehouse workers – likely a factor of Amazon’s demanding conditions.

  The reporter who wrote the piece compared injury records from 23 of Amazon’s 110 fulfillment centers nationwide. He found the rate of injuries at Amazon’s centers was 9.6 per 100 full-time workers in 2018, compared with an industry average of four, according to the Atlantic.

  It’s the latest indication that Amazon’s usage of robots to work in harmony with people on its warehouse floors has made work more dangerous for people.

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  One warehouse worker interviewed for the story was required to scan a new item at her station every 11 seconds – and that Amazon knew when she didn’t.

  Dixon’s scan rate – more than 300 items an hour, thousands of individual products a day – was being tracked constantly, the data flowing to managers in real time, then crunched by a proprietary software system called ADAPT. She knew, like the thousands of other workers there, that if she didn’t hit her target speed, she would be written up and, if she didn’t improve, she eventually would be fired.

  The report also delved into the death of a worker at one of Amazon’s warehouses, and whether Amazon’s quotas had any impact on that.

  Another report released yesterday was from the Economic Roundtable, a nonprofit research group, in a study underwritten by the LA Federation of Labor (full disclosure).

  It determined that more than half of Amazon warehouse workers in Southern California live in substandard housing, and that, for every $1 in wages they receive, they also get 24 cents in public assistance. On average, employees receive $5,245 in public benefits a year. And the biggest expense is government subsidized health insurance.

  The report’s authors also accused Amazon of positioning its warehouses in California near low-income communities to ensure an endless supply of hungry workers. Meanwhile, the report describes Amazons culture of monitoring employees’ movements as “grueling and high-stress.”

  Amazon’s warehouse jobs are grueling and high-stress. Customer orders must be assembled and delivered on rapid schedules. Warehouse workers wear tracking devices that management uses to monitor where they are at any time, how many steps they take to get their packages assembled, and how long it takes to pick up each item.

  Those who can’t meet the assembly quotas are terminated. Most logistics employees are working full-time to support their families but 86 percent earn less than the basic living wage for Riverside and San Bernardino counties. The typical worker had total annual earnings in 2017 of $20,585, which is slightly over half of the living wage. Fourteen percent were under the federal poverty threshold and another 31 percent were just above the poverty threshold.

  For what it’s worth, Amazon said that it’s high rate of injuries recorded is a result of its zealous reporting of injuries. Amazon said it tries to stop injured workers from returning to work, though employees interviewed by the reporter contested this.

  And the company’s “safety protocols” were portrayed as some thinly veiled CYA, since employees say they are almost impossible to follow.

  The company does instruct workers on the safe way to move their bodies and handle equipment. But several former workers said they had to break the safety rules to keep up. They would jump or stretch to reach a top rack instead of using a stepladder. They would twist and bend over to grab boxes instead of taking time to squat and lift with their legs. They would hoist extra-heavy items alone to avoid wasting time getting help. They had to, they said, or they would lose their jobs. So they took the risk.

  Amazon has benefited generously from public resources, including roughly $800 million in tax breaks in just four counties in Southern California.

  Adding to the mounting criticism, a group of grassroots organizations emerged this week to announce their opposition to Amazon’s “growing, powerful grip over our society and economy.” But even as popular support for breaking up big tech surges, automation still threatens millions of jobs over the next decade.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 11/27/2019 – 17:25

  Tags

  Labor

  

• Amnesty International: Google & Facebook's "Surveillance-Based" Model Threatens Human Rights
  Amnesty International: Google & Facebook’s “Surveillance-Based” Model Threatens Human Rights

  Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

  Amnesty International has said that the “surveillance-based” business models of tech giants like Google and Facebook threaten human rights. Big tech has been known to collect private data, censor speech on behalf of the government, and financially punish dissenters by disallowing advertising.

  Amnesty International has gone public with its scathing commentary about big tech. Describing Google and Facebook’s advertising-centric business models as “surveillance-based,” Amnesty International warns that the “mass harvesting of data – primarily for the purpose of advertising – has meant that surveillance has become the ‘business model of the internet.’”

  So in order to sell you more products and get you to spend your hard-earned dollars, big tech fully intends to spy on you. This is not new information by any stretch of the imagination, however, it’s worth pointing out again.

  Amnesty International says:

  • Facebook and Google both run “continuous analysis and accumulation of information about people,” which constitutes illegal surveillance under the United States Constitution.

  • Facebook and Google don’t charge for their services, and instead, rely on people “handing over their data as a hidden kind of payment.”

  • Facebook and Google collect “a wealth of highly detailed data” that allows them to know more about individuals “than the individuals do about themselves.”

  • Facebook and Google now have the capacity to analyze and predict user habits and behaviors using artificial intelligence (AI) systems equipped with advanced surveillance and tracking technologies.

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  All of this proves that Facebook, Google, and the rest are acting against the best interests of consumers, though these tech giants and others deny that they’re engaged in any behaviors that harm their customers. –Natural News

  “… despite the real value of the services they provide, Google and Facebook’s platforms come at a systemic cost,” the Amnesty International report reveals. “The companies’ surveillance-based business model forces people to make a Faustian bargain, whereby they are only able to enjoy their human rights online by submitting to a system predicated on human rights abuse,” it adds.

  “Firstly, an assault on the right to privacy on an unprecedented scale, and then a series of knock-on effects that pose a serious risk to a range of other rights, from freedom of expression and opinion to freedom of thought and the right to non-discrimination.”

  “This isn’t the internet people signed up for,” notes Amnesty International. “When Google and Facebook were first starting out two decades ago, both companies had radically different business models that did not depend on ubiquitous surveillance. The gradual erosion of privacy at the hands of Google and Facebook is a direct result of the companies’ establishing dominant market power and control over the global ‘public square.’”

  We, as individuals, need to decide if the surveillance and lack of privacy is worth it.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 11/27/2019 – 17:05

  Tags

  Business Finance

  Technology Internet