Today’s News 24th January 2019

  • Integrity Initiative: Big Brother's Minions… Or Flim-Flam Artists?

    Authored by Patrick Armstrong via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    I’m not sure what to make of Integrity Initiative (what a great gaslighting name: integrity? Hah hah: no, just furtive paid propaganda and opinion steering). But I watch the unfolding revelations with fascination. Certainly, the whole thing is bigger than it seemed at first and all the documents being revealed appear to be true.

    On the one hand, it looks like a group of superannuated old gits gassing on about how warfare today involves everything, especially “information warfare”, while last century it was only bullets. (Ever read any, say, Sun Tzu or Clausewitz? Or, speaking of the last century, Goebbels? How about Bernays?) And how we concerned individuals have voluntarily come together (assisted by £2+ million of the taxpayer’s money) to save democracy. Unpaid, unasked and unplotted. Completely conspiracy-free in fact. (Too late, the documents are out).

    In short, that the essence of democracy is never to doubt what the Ministry of Truth tells you. There’s a naïve and bubble-like quality to this: they never think any thoughts but their own. So maybe these guys, instead of kveching at the mirror and shouting at the TV set, have figured out how to flim-flam the government into supplementing their pensions in return for pages of conspiracy-babble.

    Or are we looking at something rather bigger? As John Helmer points out, there is a long history of British intelligence operating behind such “independent” and “disinterested” coverDid they help start the Russia hysteria in the USA? Did they not only play up the Skripal affair but actually create it? Did they have an effect on Spain and CataloniaInfiltrate Sanders’ campaign? What’s this “impose changes over the heads of vested interests. NB we did this in the 1930s” stuff? Is that a reference to the Zinoviev Letter forgery? (1924 actually, but they don’t look like people who bother to check details). Corbyn, of course, they see as another Kremlin stooge: is it time to “discover” a Dear Jeremy, How can I help you win? Your friend Vladimir letter? There is a danger these “clusters” of like-minded (and paid) flacks pose: in a time when the “news” media solemnly informs us that Putin has weaponised humour and Pokemon, to say nothing of killer squids, a group of “expert” “concerned citizens” who “voluntarily” appear can ratchet the hysteria up to further heights. (Although only a Russian troll would “emphasise the dangers of war in Europe (!!)”) They are trying to establish a base in the USA (“challenging the ignorance of, tolerance of or sympathy for the Russian activity” – tolerance!!?? the US media Russia-bashes 24/7!) So, no matter the temptation, we can’t write them off as silly old fools.

    Here’s their website. And here’s some of their output, most of it written straight off the top of the head. Bellyfeel, as they say in Newspeak.

    Deadly “Novichok” is not strong enough to kill you today, but is strong enough to kill someone four months later. Whatever – deadly, shmeadly – you read it, my head hurts.

    Its [Russia’s, of course] ongoing lawfare activities have shaken the pillars of the post-WWII security architecture in Europe. Who knew? The very pillars!

    Russian state media have succeeded in persuading some parts of the Arab world that Russia intervention is required to resolve the region’s disputes, which appears be the ultimate goal of Russia’s strategy in the region. I don’t think it’s Russian media, I think it’s these guys. Here they are again in Manbij.

    Silly Russians! NATO expansion, colour revolutions, sanctions, gas wars, rhetoric, tossing arms control treaties – all done to help you!

    Russia attacked Georgia in 2008, lying that it was Georgia which had attacked Russia, absurd though this sounds when one compares the respective sizes of each country. A powerful argument, not heard before. (And not considered by the EU either; even its feeble report understood that Tbilisi attacked.)

    Russia’s only aircraft carrier, Admiral Kuznetsov, is often presented as the most striking symbol of Russia’s resurgent military power. Really, by whom? I follow this stuff and I know Russians like to talk about Piotr Velikiy or their submarines but the elderly Kuznetsov is just functional. (Although, escort tug, belching smoke and all, it works and the British media gets the fantods every time it appears.) This piece tries to show that Russia’s infrastructure is falling apart. Maybe they should spend more time on YouTube.

    The Kremlin lies. Repeatedly and seriously. This is the only conclusion which can be drawn if you accept the view of the British Government that the Russian state is behind the attack using a nerve agent on Sergei Skripal and his daughter, Yuliya. The Russian authorities have already put out at least 17 different versions of what happened. (47 here). Ah, but the prosecution doesn’t win if the accused can’t prove who did it. Presumption of innocence – isn’t that one of those fundamental principles you’re supposed to be defending? The problem with accepting the “view of the British Government” is that it requires superhuman doublethink and crimestop as this summary of the absurdities shows. The latest being that a bit of “Novichok” on a door handle requires removing the roof of the house while Zizzi’s, old roof and all, is open for business!

    However, at no time has the Integrity Initiative engaged in party political activity and would never take up a party-political stance. Spain and CataloniaSanders? Corbyn? Stay tuned.

    These guys really should get out more. If they were being paid by some private individual for this tripe that would be one thing; but the British government (and others?) is paying – in fact, it’s actually paying these people to influence its own policy. Think about that: that’s rather different. Even leaving aside all the stuff about “we did this in the 1930s”. It’s a bit Deep Stateish – it’s a lot Deep Stateish.

    Or maybe it’s just a bunch of retirees swindling the government by writing fluff about how Russia is sapping and impurifying all our precious bodily fluids.

    Sarcasm is fun but the big question is: who’s winning: these guys with millions and the support of most media outlets, or us with hundreds and sites like this one? But then we have reality on our side and, eventually, but it can be a long eventually, it bites.

    You decide. Here and here are the hacks. Or are they leaks? Interesting question, eh? We owe much thanks to Anonymous for exposing these people. Add Kim Klarenberg to your Twitter feed – an actual reporter doing actual reporting! I think there’s lots more to be revealed.

    I’m amused by Donnelly saying that the fact that their stuff has been hacked shows that they must be having an effect; no, there are people out there who are tired of the lies, secret manipulations and managed media campaigns whooping up war fever. They found you and they broke into your files. That’s all.

  • Uncle Sam Wants Your DNA: The FBI's Diabolical Plan To Create A Nation Of Suspects

    Authored by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    “As more and more data flows from your body and brain to the smart machines via the biometric sensors, it will become easy for corporations and government agencies to know you, manipulate you, and make decisions on your behalf. Even more importantly, they could decipher the deep mechanisms of all bodies and brains, and thereby gain the power to engineer life. If we want to prevent a small elite from monopolising such godlike powers, and if we want to prevent humankind from splitting into biological castes, the key question is: who owns the data? Does the data about my DNA, my brain and my life belong to me, to the government, to a corporation, or to the human collective?”―Professor Yuval Noah Harari

    Uncle Sam wants you.

    Correction: Uncle Sam wants your DNA.

    Actually, if the government gets its hands on your DNA, they as good as have you in their clutches.

    Get ready, folks, because the government— helped along by Congress (which adopted legislation allowing police to collect and test DNA immediately following arrests), President Trump (who signed the Rapid DNA Act into law), the courts (which have ruled that police can routinely take DNA samples from people who are arrested but not yet convicted of a crime), and local police agencies (which are chomping at the bit to acquire this new crime-fighting gadget)—is embarking on a diabolical campaign to create a nation of suspects predicated on a massive national DNA database.

    As the New York Times reports:

    “The science-fiction future, in which police can swiftly identify robbers and murderers from discarded soda cans and cigarette butts, has arrived. In 2017, President Trump signed into law the Rapid DNA Act, which, starting this year, will enable approved police booking stations in several states to connect their Rapid DNA machines to Codis, the national DNA database. Genetic fingerprinting is set to become as routine as the old-fashioned kind.

    Referred to as “magic boxes,” these Rapid DNA machines – portable, about the size of a desktop printer, highly unregulated, far from fool-proof, and so fast that they can produce DNA profiles in less than two hours – allow police to go on fishing expeditions for any hint of possible misconduct using DNA samples.

    Journalist Heather Murphy explains:

    “As police agencies build out their local DNA databases, they are collecting DNA not only from people who have been charged with major crimes but also, increasingly, from people who are merely deemed suspicious, permanently linking their genetic identities to criminal databases.”

    Suspect Society, meet the American police state.

    Every dystopian sci-fi film we’ve ever seen is suddenly converging into this present moment in a dangerous trifecta between science, technology and a government that wants to be all-seeing, all-knowing and all-powerful.

    By tapping into your phone lines and cell phone communications, the government knows what you say.

    By uploading all of your emails, opening your mail, and reading your Facebook posts and text messages, the government knows what you write.

    By monitoring your movements with the use of license plate readers, surveillance cameras and other tracking devices, the government knows where you go.

    By churning through all of the detritus of your life—what you read, where you go, what you say—the government can predict what you will do.

    By mapping the synapses in your brain, scientists—and in turn, the government—will soon know what you remember.

    And by accessing your DNA, the government will soon know everything else about you that they don’t already know: your family chart, your ancestry, what you look like, your health history, your inclination to follow orders or chart your own course, etc.

    Of course, none of these technologies are foolproof.

    Nor are they immune from tampering, hacking or user bias.

    Nevertheless, they have become a convenient tool in the hands of government agents to render null and void the Constitution’s requirements of privacy and its prohibitions against unreasonable searches and seizures.

    Consequently, no longer are we “innocent until proven guilty” in the face of DNA evidence that places us at the scene of a crimebehavior sensing technology that interprets our body temperature and facial tics as suspicious, and government surveillance devices that cross-check our biometricslicense plates and DNA against a growing database of unsolved crimes and potential criminals.

    The government’s questionable acquisition and use of DNA to identify individuals and “solve” crimes has come under particular scrutiny in recent years.

    Until recently, the government was required to at least observe some basic restrictions on when, where and how it could access someone’s DNA. That has all been turned on its head by various U.S. Supreme Court rulings that pave the way for suspicionless searches and herald the loss of privacy on a cellular level.

    Certainly, it was difficult enough trying to protect our privacy in the wake of a 2013 Supreme Court ruling in Maryland v. King that likened DNA collection to photographing and fingerprinting suspects when they are booked, thereby allowing the government to take DNA samples from people merely “arrested” in connection with “serious” crimes.

    Justice Antonin Scalia’s dissent in Maryland v. King is worth reading not only for the history lesson on the Fourth Amendment but for its clear-sighted rebuke of the police state’s tendency to justify every encroachment on our freedoms as necessary for security.

    As Scalia noted:

    “Solving unsolved crimes is a noble objective, but it occupies a lower place in the American pantheon of noble objectives than the protection of our people from suspicionless law-enforcement searches… Make no mistake about it: As an entirely predictable consequence of today’s decision, your DNA can be taken and entered into a national DNA database if you are ever arrested, rightly or wrongly, and for whatever reason. Today’s judgment will, to be sure, have the beneficial effect of solving more crimes; then again, so would the taking of DNA samples from anyone who flies on an airplane (surely the Transportation Security Administration needs to know the “identity” of the flying public), applies for a driver’s license, or attends a public school. Perhaps the construction of such a genetic panopticon is wise. But I doubt that the proud men who wrote the charter of our liberties would have been so eager to open their mouths for royal inspection.”

    The Court’s decision to let stand the Maryland Court of Appeals’ ruling in Raynor v. Maryland, which essentially determined that individuals do not have a right to privacy when it comes to their DNA, made Americans even more vulnerable to the government accessing, analyzing and storing their DNA without their knowledge or permission.

    Although Glenn Raynor, a suspected rapist, willingly agreed to be questioned by police, he refused to provide them with a DNA sample.

    No problem. Police simply swabbed the chair in which Raynor had been sitting and took what he refused to voluntarily provide.

    Raynor’s DNA was a match, and the suspect became a convict.

    As the dissenting opinion in Raynor for the Maryland Court of Appeals rightly warned, “a person desiring to keep her DNA profile private, must conduct her public affairs in a hermetically sealed hazmat suit…. The Majority’s holding means that a person can no longer vote, participate in a jury, or obtain a driver’s license, without opening up his genetic material for state collection and codification.”

    Yet in refusing to hear the case, the U.S. Supreme Court gave its tacit approval for government agents to collect shed DNA, likening it to a person’s fingerprints or the color of their hair, eyes or skin.

    Whereas fingerprint technology created a watershed moment for police in their ability to “crack” a case, DNA technology is now being hailed by law enforcement agencies as the magic bullet in crime solving.

    It’s what police like to refer to a “modern fingerprint.”

    However, unlike a fingerprint, a DNA print reveals everything about “who we are, where we come from, and who we will be.”

    With such a powerful tool at their disposal, it was inevitable that the government’s collection of DNA would become a slippery slope toward government intrusion.

    All 50 states now maintain their own DNA databases, although the protocols for collection differ from state to state. Increasingly, many of the data from local databanks are being uploaded to CODIS (Combined DNA Index System), the FBI’s massive DNA database, which has become a de facto way to identify and track the American people from birth to death.

    Even hospitals have gotten in on the game by taking and storing newborn babies’ DNA, often without their parents’ knowledge or consent. It’s part of the government’s mandatory genetic screening of newborns. However, in many states, the DNA is stored indefinitely.

    What this means for those being born today is inclusion in a government database that contains intimate information about who they are, their ancestry, and what awaits them in the future, including their inclinations to be followers, leaders or troublemakers.

    For the rest of us, it’s just a matter of time before the government gets hold of our DNA, either through mandatory programs carried out in connection with law enforcement and corporate America, by warrantlessly accessing our familial DNA shared with geneological services such as Ancestry and 23andMe, or through the collection of our “shed” or “touch” DNA.

    All of those fascinating, geneological ancestral searches that allow you to trace your family tree can also be used against you and those you love. As law professor Elizabeth Joh explains, “When you upload your DNA, you’re potentially becoming a genetic informant on the rest of your family.”

    While much of the public debate, legislative efforts and legal challenges in recent years have focused on the protocols surrounding when police can legally collect a suspect’s DNA (with or without a search warrant and whether upon arrest or conviction), the question of how to handle “shed” or “touch” DNA has largely slipped through without much debate or opposition.

    Yet as scientist Leslie A. Pray notes:

    We all shed DNA, leaving traces of our identity practically everywhere we go. Forensic scientists use DNA left behind on cigarette butts, phones, handles, keyboards, cups, and numerous other objects, not to mention the genetic content found in drops of bodily fluid, like blood and semen. In fact, the garbage you leave for curbside pickup is a potential gold mine of this sort of material. All of this shed or so-called abandoned DNA is free for the taking by local police investigators hoping to crack unsolvable cases. Or, if the future scenario depicted at the beginning of this article is any indication, shed DNA is also free for inclusion in a secret universal DNA databank.

    What this means is that if you have the misfortune to leave your DNA traces anywhere a crime has been committed, you’ve already got a file somewhere in some state or federal database—albeit it may be a file without a name.

    As Forensic magazine reports, “As officers have become more aware of touch DNA’s potential, they are using it more and more. Unfortunately, some [police] have not been selective enough when they process crime scenes. Instead, they have processed anything and everything at the scene, submitting 150 or more samples for analysis.”

    Even old samples taken from crime scenes and “cold” cases are being unearthed and mined for their DNA profiles.

    Today, helped along by robotics and automation, DNA processing, analysis and reporting takes far less time and can bring forth all manner of information, right down to a person’s eye color and relatives. Incredibly, one company specializes in creating “mug shots” for police based on DNA samples from unknown “suspects” which are then compared to individuals with similar genetic profiles.

    If you haven’t yet connected the dots, let me point the way.

    Having already used surveillance technology to render the entire American populace potential suspects, DNA technology in the hands of government will complete our transition to a suspect society in which we are all merely waiting to be matched up with a crime.

    No longer can we consider ourselves innocent until proven guilty.

    Now we are all suspects in a DNA lineup until circumstances and science say otherwise.

    Of course, there will be those who point to DNA’s positive uses in criminal justice, such as in those instances where it is used to absolve someone on death row of a crime he didn’t commit, and there is no denying its beneficial purposes at times.

    However, as is the case with body camera footage and every other so-called technology that is hailed as a “check” on government abuses, in order for the average person—especially one convicted of a crime—to request and get access to DNA testing, they first have to embark on a costly, uphill legal battle through red tape and, even then, they are opposed at every turn by a government bureaucracy run by prosecutors, legislatures and law enforcement.

    What this amounts to is a scenario in which we have little to no defense of against charges of wrongdoing, especially when “convicted” by technology, and even less protection against the government sweeping up our DNA in much the same way it sweeps up our phone calls, emails and text messages.

    Yet if there are no limits to government officials being able to access your DNA and all that it says about you, then where do you draw the line?

    As technology makes it ever easier for the government to tap into our thoughts, our memories, our dreams, suddenly the landscape becomes that much more dystopian.

    With the entire governmental system shifting into a pre-crime mode aimed at detecting and pursuing those who “might” commit a crime before they have an inkling, let alone an opportunity, to do so, it’s not so far-fetched to imagine a scenario in which government agents (FBI, local police, etc.) target potential criminals based on their genetic disposition to be a “troublemaker” or their relationship to past dissenters.

    Equally disconcerting: if scientists can, using DNA, track salmon across hundreds of square miles of streams and rivers, how easy will it be for government agents to not only know everywhere we’ve been and how long we were at each place but collect our easily shed DNA and add it to the government’s already burgeoning database?

    As always there will be those voices—well-meaning, certainly—insisting that if you want to save the next girl from being raped, abducted or killed, then we need to give the government all the tools necessary to catch these criminals before they can commit their heinous crimes.

    If you care for someone, you’re particularly vulnerable to this line of reasoning. Of course we don’t want our wives butchered, our girlfriends raped, our daughters abducted and subjected to all manner of atrocities.

    But what about those cases in which the technology proved to be wrong, either through human error or tampering? It happens more often than we are told.

    For example, David Butler spent eight months in prison for a murder he didn’t commit after his DNA was allegedly found on the murder victim and surveillance camera footage placed him in the general area the murder took place. Conveniently, Butler’s DNA was on file after he had voluntarily submitted it during an investigation years earlier into a robbery at his mother’s home. The case seemed cut and dried to everyone but Butler who proclaimed his innocence. Except that the DNA evidence and surveillance footage was wrong: Butler was innocent.

    Moreover, despite the insistence by government agents that DNA is infallible, New York Times reporter Andrew Pollack makes a clear and convincing case that DNA evidence can, in fact, be fabricated. Israeli scientists “fabricated blood and saliva samples containing DNA from a person other than the donor of the blood and saliva,” stated Pollack. “They also showed that if they had access to a DNA profile in a database, they could construct a sample of DNA to match that profile without obtaining any tissue from that person.”

    The danger, warns scientist Dan Frumkin, is that crime scenes can be engineered with fabricated DNA.

    Now if you happen to be the kind of person who trusts the government implicitly and refuses to believe it would ever do anything illegal or immoral, then the prospect of government officials—police, especially—using fake DNA samples to influence the outcome of a case might seem outlandish.

    Yet as history shows – and as I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American Peoplethe probability of our government acting in a way that is not only illegal but immoral becomes less a question of “if” and more a question of “when.”

  • Millions Of Secret Bank Docs Leak Online After Mishap

    In the latest reminder of just how vulnerable Americans’ sensitive financial data can be, a server security lapse at Ascension, a data and analytics company for the financial industry, based in Fort Worth, Texas, left the unencrypted information – some 24 million documents – available for anyone who knew where to look. Ascension offers financial institutions the service of converting documents into files that can be read by computers, known as OCR.

    The server, which was running an Elasticsearch database, contained more than a decade’s worth of data – from loan and mortgage agreements to repayment schedules and other financial and tax documents – which offer an intimate insight into a person’s life. The information wasn’t protected by a password.

    Doc

    The database was only exposed for two weeks – but that was long enough for independent security researcher Bob Diachenko to find it. And if he was able to locate it, who knows how many professional cyber criminals were also able to find it. The database wasn’t shut down until mid-January, after TechCrunch inquired about it.

    TC found that almost all of the documents pertained to loans and mortgages offered by some of the largest lenders in America dating as far back as 2008 (including some that are now defunct). Some of the sensitive information exposed by the unforced error included social security numbers and W-2 forms, which are used by scammers to claim refunds.

    From our review, it was clear that the documents pertain to loans and mortgages and other correspondence from several of the major financial and lending institutions dating as far back as 2008, if not longer, including CitiFinancial, a now-defunct lending finance arm of Citigroup, files from HSBC Life Insurance, Wells Fargo, CapitalOne and some U.S. federal departments, including the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

    Some of the companies have long been defunct, after selling their mortgage divisions and assets to other companies.

    Though not all files contained the highly sensitive and personal data points, we found: names, addresses, birth dates, Social Security numbers and bank and checking account numbers, as well as details of loan agreements that include sensitive financial information, such as why the person is requesting the loan.

    Some of the documents also note if a person has filed for bankruptcy and tax documents, including annual W-2 tax forms, which are targets for scammers to claim false refunds.

    Though most of the files were presented out of order, making it difficult for criminals to sift through the data, TC was able to verify the identifies of all of the people identified in the files using public records.

    Citi, one of the lenders identified in the documents, said it has no continuing relationship with the third party responsible for the leak.

    Although the documents originate from these financiers, one bank – Citi, which helped to secure the data – said it had no current relationship with the company.

    “Citi recently became aware that a third party, with no connection to Citi, was storing certain mortgage origination and modification documents in an unsecure online environment,” said a Citi spokesperson. “These documents contained information about current or former Citi customers, as well as customers from other financial institutions. Citi notified law enforcement, initiated a thorough forensic investigation and worked quickly to ensure the information could no longer be publicly accessed.”

    Citi confirmed that “third party is a vendor to a company that had purchased the loans and we have found no evidence that Citi’s systems were compromised.”

    The bank added that it’s working to identify potentially affected customers.

    Dozens of other companies are affected, including smaller regional banks and larger multinationals.

    A Wells Fargo spokesperson said the data was obtained by Ascension from other entities that purchased Wells Fargo mortgages. When reached, neither HSBC nor CapitalOne had comment at the time of publication. A Housing and Urban Development spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment. The department is currently affected by the ongoing government shutdown. If anything changes, we’ll update.

    The breach is only the latest involving an Elasticsearch database. But it’s also a healthy reminder that it doesn’t take a data breach on par with JPM’s precedent-setting banking data breach to leave your information vulnerable to thieves.

  • Inside The FBI's 'Police State' Operation Against Trump

    Authored by Patrick Martin via Off-Guardian.org,

    A front-page article published last week in the New York Times revealing that the FBI secretly opened a counter-intelligence investigation into President Donald Trump after he fired FBI Director James Comey has laid bare a massive police state conspiracy by the US intelligence agencies.

    The Times published the article in an effort to revive the anti-Russia campaign against Trump, promoting the unsubstantiated and highly dubious claim that Trump is a Russian agent. The facts presented in the Times report are, in reality, far more damning of the FBI than of Trump.

    Despite the newspaper’s intentions, the picture painted by the Times of the FBI is alarming. The Times depicts a highly politicized intelligence agency whose officials carefully monitor the activities of the two main capitalist parties, keeping a vigilant eye out for any deviations from the national security consensus in Washington.

    The Times claims that Trump “had caught the attention of FBI counterintelligence agents when he called on Russia during a campaign news conference in July 2016 to hack the emails of his opponent, Hillary Clinton.” Given that this was a sarcastic campaign remark directed against Clinton’s use of a private email server while she was secretary of state, and delivered at a public news conference, Trump’s sally can hardly be construed as evidence of a conspiracy.

    The Times article goes on to describe how FBI officials monitored the platform adopted at the Republican National Convention, reporting that the spy agency “watched with alarm as the Republican Party softened its convention platform on the Ukraine crisis in a way that seemed to benefit Russia.” That is, the nation’s top police agency was concerned that the positions adopted contravened certain basic tenets of dominant sections of the foreign policy establishment.

    By what constitutional authority can the FBI, based on political positions adopted by one or the other of the two main capitalist parties, open up a secret investigation into treason and conspiracy? Such an operation bespeaks a police state and recalls the methods of the Stalinist NKVD.

    The agency also investigated four of Trump’s campaign aides over possible ties to Russia, and even made use of the notorious Steele dossier, consisting of anti-Trump gossip collated from Russian sources by a former British intelligence agent on the payroll of the Democratic Party.

    After Trump fired Comey, according to the Times, “law enforcement officials became so concerned by the president’s behavior that they began investigating whether he had been working on behalf of Russia against American interests… Counterintelligence investigators had to consider whether the president’s own actions constituted a possible threat to national security. Agents also sought to determine whether Mr. Trump was knowingly working for Russia or had unwittingly fallen under Moscow’s influence.”

    The operations of the FBI, encouraged, aided and abetted by the Times, recall the paranoid rantings of the John Birch Society, the ultra-right group formed in the 1950s, whose founder, Robert Welch, notoriously claimed that President Dwight D. Eisenhower, the former World War II commander of Allied forces in Europe, was a “a dedicated, conscious agent of the Communist conspiracy.”

    Claims that once were the province of an extremist group, on the fringes of American politics, are now embraced by the military-intelligence apparatus, appear on the front page of the most influential American daily newspaper, and dominate the network and cable television news.

    But these allegations have no credibility. Why should anyone believe claims that Trump, at age 70, after decades as a real estate mogul, con man and media celebrity, with a billion-dollar fortune, suddenly decided to throw in his lot with Vladimir Putin? Even the Times report itself concedes, in a single sentence buried in the 2,000-word text, “No evidence has emerged publicly that Mr. Trump was secretly in contact with or took direction from Russian government officials.”

    While there is no evidence of a conspiracy between Trump and Moscow, the Times report itself is evidence of a conspiracy involving the intelligence agencies and the corporate media to overturn the 2016 presidential election – which Trump won, albeit within the undemocratic framework of the Electoral College – and install a government that would differ from Trump’s chiefly in being more committed to military confrontation with Russia in Syria, Ukraine and elsewhere.

    A secret security investigation by a powerful police agency directed against an elected president or prime minister can be described as nothing other than the antechamber to a coup by the military or intelligence services.

    Historically, the FBI has been at the center of such dangers in the United States. Its founding director, J. Edgar Hoover, was notorious for his unchecked power, particularly during the period of the McCarthy anticommunist witch hunt, when he accumulated dossiers on virtually every Democratic and Republican politician and authorized widespread spying on civil rights and antiwar groups.

    President John F. Kennedy was so concerned that he installed his brother Robert as attorney general – and nominal superior to Hoover – to keep watch over the bureau. That did not save Kennedy from assassination in 1963, an event linked in still undisclosed ways to ultra-right circles, including Cuban exiles embittered by the Bay of Pigs disaster, Southern segregationists, and sections of the military-intelligence apparatus up in arms over Kennedy’s signing of a nuclear test ban treaty with Moscow.

    The New York Times report – and a companion piece published Sunday in the Washington Postclaiming that Trump has kept secret key details of his private conversations with Putin – serve to legitimize antidemocratic and unconstitutional conduct by the military-intelligence apparatus.

    These reports shed light on the striking complacency in the “mainstream” media over Trump’s threats to declare a national emergency, using the pretext of his conflict with congressional Democrats over funding of a border wall, which has led to a three-week-long partial shutdown of the federal government.

    If one takes for good coin the main contention of the reports by the two newspapers, their acquiescence in a potential Trump declaration of emergency rule is inexplicable. After all, if Trump is Putin’s agent, then a Trump declaration of a state of emergency, giving him sweeping, near-absolute authority, would put the United States under the control of Moscow.

    The explanation is that the Times and the Post welcome the discussion of emergency rule, to prepare the forces of the state for coming conflicts with the working class. Their only disagreement with Trump is over which faction of the ruling elite, Trump or his opponents in the Democratic Party, should direct the repression.

    One thing is certain: if Trump declares a national emergency, or if, as the Post suggested in an editorial, his opponents in the ruling elite declare a national emergency over alleged Russian “meddling” as part an effort to remove him, it will represent an irrevocable break with democracy.

    It is impossible to determine which side in this sordid conflict is more reactionary. The working class is confronted with two alternatives:

    • either the present political crisis will be resolved by one faction of the ruling elite moving against the other, using the methods of palace coup and dictatorship, whose essential target is the working class,

    • or workers will move en masse against the political establishment as a whole and the capitalist system that it defends.

  • Pentagon Admits Russian Air Defenses "Changing U.S. Calculus" Abroad

    As the West has for the past two years distracted itself and obsessed over claimed Russian election meddling and those sinister online “disinformation campaigns,” the Kremlin has been busy establishing air superiority in places US aircraft could at one time operate with impunity.

    According to a new lengthy report in the Wall Street Journal Russia’s S-400 antiaircraft missile system, which much of the western public has recently begun to hear about in the context of Syria, is now “changing the calculus of the U.S. and its allies in potential hot spots” as Russia is erecting a “new Iron Curtain” in the form of a series of effective and far reaching anti-air defenses stretching from the Arctic to the Middle East

    For starters, the S-400 system’s stealth-detecting radar system is able to cast a broad net around the Eastern Mediterranean from its Russian base positioning in Syria, and is further linked up to “a ring of air defenses” that stretches “North from Syria, along the borders of Eastern Europe and rounding the Arctic Circle to the east,” according to the report.

    Though not yet tested in battle, the Pentagon itself has admitted the necessity of changing flight routes and where it can operate in terms of deploying aircraft, which is the most significant revelation in the WSJ report

    The Pentagon acknowledged that S-400 batteries in Syria have forced adjustments to coalition air operations, but it contended the U.S. in general still maintains freedom of movement in the air. “We can continue to operate where we need to be,” a U.S. defense official said.

    The White House revamped its National Security Strategy in late 2017 to account for the new challenge. Russia is “fielding military capabilities designed to deny America access in times of crisis and to contest our ability to operate freely,” a report said. “They are contesting our geopolitical advantages.”

    And a further similar admission is found in a Congressional report produced by a bipartisan commission to evaluate White House defense strategy. The commission found, as cited in the WSJ, that Russia is “seeking regional hegemony and the means to project power globally,” and that this was already “diminishing U.S. military advantages and threatening vital U.S. interests.”

    Via the Wall Street Journal

    Though Russian military spending and capability is still dwarfed by both the United States and China (Russia’s defense budget is about a tenth the size of the Pentagon’s), the Kremlin’s strategic deployment of these systems to counter US power has been enough to put Washington on notice, and is driving fears the S-400’s deadly reach could proliferate, as it already has in China and India, and with prospective deals in the works with Saudi Arabia and Turkey. 

    If as the WSJ acknowledges the event that kickstarted the S-400’s deployment far outside Russia’s borders was the Syrian war, which saw an embattled Assad invited allied Russian forces into the country in 2015, then Washington and its allies can look no further than themselves in terms of blame. As both Putin, Assad, and at rare moments of frankness some US officials themselves have acknowledged, Russian forces entered Syria in reaction to the West-Gulf alliance’s covert war of regime change which empowered al-Qaeda and ISIS forces poised to take Damascus. 

    The result of this for US dominance across the Atlantic and Pacific oceans? WSJ finds, echoing the Russian conclusion:

    As Russia fills orders, the expanding S-400 footprint creates barriers that threaten decades of unchallenged U.S. air superiority in the Middle East, the Arctic and parts of Asia. By selling the S-400 to other countries, Russia spreads the cost of limiting U.S. forces.

    “Russia doesn’t want military superiority, but it has ended the superiority of the West or the U.S.,” said Sergey Karaganov, a foreign-policy adviser to Mr. Putin. “Now, the West can no longer use force indiscriminately.”

    To be predicted the Pentagon is still touting its global dominance, a fact disputed by few, but perhaps soon to come up against the increasingly expansive reach of the S-400, especially if Turkey and Saudi Arabia actually end up acquiring them, something Washington will continue to work towards preventing. 

    The Pentagon told the WSJ in response to the question of Russia’s growing air defense capabilities: “The U.S. remains the pre-eminent military power in the world and continues to strengthen relationships with NATO allies and partners to maintain our strategic advantage,” said Pentagon spokesman Eric Pahon. “The U.S. and our allies have quite a few measures at our disposal to ensure the balances of power remain in our favor.”

  • Booze Good, Weed Bad: CBS Refuses To Air Medical Marijuana Super Bowl Ad

    Authored by Elias Marat via TheMindUnleashed.com,

    As more and more people shake themselves free from the taboo against the medical and recreational use of cannabis, one would think that the mainstream media would similarly shift with the cultural winds and begin to show more flexibility toward the plant.

    In the case of CBS, this doesn’t seem to be an option.

    The network’s stance was made clear when they rejected a commercial promoting the numerous medicinal and health benefits of cannabis during this year’s Super Bowl, when an estimated 100 million viewers will attentively watch not only the Big Game and Halftime Show, but also eagerly gape at the commercials that run during the game.

    As is tradition, many of the ads will be for alcoholic beverages that viewers often binge-drinkthroughout the day. But ads for medical marijuana to treat glaucoma or improve the quality of life for suffering U.S. military veterans? Now that’s going too far – or so CBS executives say.

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    According to USA Today, Acreage Holdings  – a firm involved in the cultivation, processing, and sale of cannabis – produced a 60-second ad showing three people suffering from a variety of ailments who attest to the healing power of medical marijuana.

    It’s a public service announcement really more than it is an advertisement,” Harris Damashek, chief marketing officer for Acreage explained.

     “We’re not marketing any of our products or retail in this spot.”

    After sending the storyboards of the commercial to CBS, Acreage received a reply that brusquely stated:

    “CBS will not be accepting any ads for medical marijuana at this time.”

    A CBS spokesman subsequently told the newspaper that its current broadcast standards don’t allow for any sort of advertising related to cannabis.

    Acreage president George Allen isn’t particularly shocked about the rejection, and attributed the company declining the ad to the legal gray-zone in which medical marijuana purveyors currently find themselves. Allen explained:

    We’re not particularly surprised that CBS and/or the NFL rejected the content… that is actually less a statement about them and more we think a statement about where we stand right now in this country.”

    In 1996, California was the first state to lift restrictions on the use of marijuana for medical purposes. Since then, over 30 states have followed the Golden State’s example while ten states plus Washington, D.C. have also freed the plant almost entirely, granting adults over 21 the right to partake freely in the recreational use of the herb.

    Yet under federal law, cannabis remains classified as a Schedule I drug under the Controlled Substances Act – a contradiction that has led to many legally-licensed companies dealing with the plant to land in hot water with the feds.

    Allan added:

    One of the hardest parts about this business is the ambiguity that we operate within …We do the best we can to navigate a complex fabric of state and federal policy, much of which conflicts.”

    The advertisement, depicting three cases of people who benefited from their use of medical marijuana, remains in unfinished form. Stories included that of a Colorado boy who suffers from Dravet syndrome, whose mother claims that medical cannabis saved his life after suffering numerous seizures per day. A Buffalo man claims that after 15 years of opioid dependency following three back surgeries, medical marijuana allowed him to live once again. And an Oakland resident and military veteran who lost his leg while serving also claimed that medical marijuana has softened the unbearable pain he had undergone.

    The use of marijuana for various ailments is nothing new. Cannabis has been used medicinally by humans across the globe for over 5,000 years.

    After years of demonization, the plant has enjoyed increasing mainstream acceptance in recent decades, with a recent poll by the Pew Research Center finding that 62 percent of U.S. residents, including 74 percent of millennials, favor an end to the prohibition of cannabis.

    The plant has also been the subject of numerous studies by the medical community as a valid treatment for a various medical and health conditions including headaches, chronic pain, insomnia, muscle spasms, menstrual cramps, narcotic addiction, appetite loss, post-traumatic stress disorder, anxiety, HIV-AIDS, cancer, and other ailments. In contrast, alcoholic beverages haven’t been proven to be a reasonable treatment for any of these things.

  • Texas Power Prices Explode As Dallas Freezes

    While the coasts dominated the headlines in the latest chillpocalypse to cross America, freezing weather in Texas has sparked a panic-bid for wholesale electricity in the lone star state.

    Dallas temperatures plunged to 29 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 2 Celsius) by 8 a.m. local time Wednesday, according to the National Weather Service.

    Which prompted people to blast their heaters to keep warm, driving power demand well above forecasts prepared by the state’s grid operator.

    As Bloomberg reports, spot electricity at a northern hub in Texas jumped 461 percent to average $118.77 a megawatt-hour for the hour ended 10 a.m. local time. Prices spiked to as high as $140.22, the most since April of last year.

    Making matters worse: Texas’s abundance of wind power has failed to help, with generation from farms falling below forecasts.

  • AeroMexico's DNA Discounts

    Authored by Sarah Cowgill via Liberty Nation,

    Aeromexico, Mexico’s largest commercial airline, is offering fare discounts on travel south of the border for Americans who have Mexican heritage. The greater the percentage of a Yank’s Hispanic blood, the steeper the discount.

    As advertisements go, this one is simply brilliant…

    Not because Americans are now more inclined to travel to an often unstable, notoriously corrupt region, infested with drug and gang violence, to vacay on policia federale-patrolled beaches, but because tongues are wagging across all forms of media.

    It’s a Mexican version of the United Colors of Benetton – the global fashion brand based in Italy that capitalized on ads promoting racial harmony before millennials were spawned.

    It’s so safe-place and feel-goody, until those pesky geneticists throw science into the discussion. Blaine Bettinger of Baldwinsville, NY, is one such genetic genealogist and the advertising agency’s worst party-pooper.  As he claims, “It’s an impossibility to really identify anyone’s DNA to be ‘Mexican.’”

    Those science types are prickly about facts.

    Madison Avenue – Mexico Satellite Office

    New York ad agency Ogilvy – a biggie in the business of selling products; despising conservative views, especially those of President Trump; and spreading far left indoctrination across every discipline in 21st -century media – is the Wizard behind the green curtain.

    Imagine that.

    The two-minute ad targeted Texans for their anti-open borders views and dislike of illegals – despite enjoying Tex-Mex food and Corona beer (who doesn’t?) – and offered to test their DNA and share results on camera. To be fair, the giants in the consumer DNA testing industry, 23andMe and Ancestry, were not part of the process or the analysis of gathered spit samples.

    And Bettinger, forever to be known as Aeromexico’s thorn in the side, explained that it is easier to distinguish between continents of origin but harder to drill down to specific countries or regions. That’s almost impossible.

    He is an expert on the subject. When he claims, “Mexico is no less of a melting pot than the United States. There’s no such thing as United States DNA, so why would there be Mexican DNA? It doesn’t make any sense,” whom are you going trust – science or Madison Avenue?

    Perhaps Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) should have consulted with Bettinger and Ogilvy before her disastrous DNA debacle.

    The AeroMexico ad showcases the metamorphosis of illegal-haters into warm and fuzzy humans forever changed by the notion of ancestry skewed to reflect a sales pitch.

    Original interviews garnered comments from “The idea of going to Mexico is not something I would foresee” and “That’s not my cup of tea” to “Let me stay here in peace, and let those folks stay on their side of the border.”

    But when the results were unveiled, Oh. My. God. The humanity was visceral. But no one grabbed a phone to a book a flight either, despite the offer of a 22% discount by a really pasty white guy.

    It’s junk science.

    As our old friend Bettinger said, “I don’t think they can do what they did. I think it’s in part unethical to do that because in the Americas — in Mexico and the U.S. and Canada — we’re very diverse, which is a very good thing.”

    Kudos To Creatives

    Despite the comic relief of the ad itself, travel to Mexico probably will not increase by those who want a border wall.  But Aeromexico isn’t desperate for visitors to Mexico – passenger traffic throughout Latin America, the United States, Canada, Europe, and Asia – is on a steady incline: The airline boasts of 17.1 million passengers in 2014 and 21.9 million in 2018.

    Perhaps this ad was intended as sarcasm, hurtfully poking fun at Texans, while hoping for an ADDY or a Clio award at the next gala. While capitalizing on the latest trend of DNA testing for genealogical purposes, this ad teeters between insulting and unethical, but it does have folks talking.

    David Ogilvy, the father of advertising on Madison Avenue, would often boast, “We sell. Or else.”  Ah, yes, his legacy continues after death — all the way to the bank and back again.

  • US Refuses To Withdraw Diplomats From Venezuela, "Will Take Appropriate Actions" If Harmed

    In what may shape up to be a major international incident over the next 48 hours, the United States has refused to withdraw diplomats from Venezuela, saying in a Wednesday evening statement that the US “stands with interim President Juan Guaido,” adding “The United States does not recognize the Maduro regime as the government of Venezuela. Accordingly the United States does not consider former president Nicolas Maduro to have the legal authority to break diplomatic relations with the United States or to declare our diplomats persona non grata.

    Earlier Wednesday, Maduro broke diplomatic relations with the US, giving American diplomats 72 hours to leave Caracas after President Trump declared Maduro’s political opponent, Venezuelan National Assembly President Juan Guaido, the Interim President of Venezuela.  

    Nicolas Maduro

    Guaido responded with a tweet of appreciation

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    14 other countries have similarly recognized Guaido. 

    Cuba and Bolivia, meanwhile, have expressed support for Maduro – while Mexico remains on the fence, supporting the empanada-eating Maduro “for now.” 

    Guaido – who swore himself in as acting president of Venezuela earlier Wednesday, asked all embassies to “maintain their diplomatic presence in the country.”  

    Juan Guaido

    “Through the powers that the Constitution grants me, I would like to communicate to all leaders of diplomatic missions and their accredited staff in Venezuela — the state of Venezuela firmly wants you to maintain your diplomatic presence in our country. Any messages to the contrary lack any validity, since they come from people or entities that have been characterized as usurpers. They have no legitimate authority to make any statements on this.” -Juan Guaido

    The United Nations is monitoring the situation according to UN Deputy Spokesman Farhan Haq during a Wednesday briefing. 

    “The United Nations firmly rejects any kind of political violence. We underline the urgent need for all relevant actors to commit to inclusive and credible political negotiations to address the challenges facing the country, with full respect for the rule of law and human rights,” said Haq in a statement. 

    Venezuelans, meanwhile, took to the streets en masse during a day of unrest in which pro-Maduro forces fired live rounds into the crowds killing several people. 

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Today’s News 23rd January 2019

  • France And Germany Take Major Step Toward EU Army To Protect "Europe Threatened By Nationalism"

    French President Emmanuel Macron’s push for what he previously called “a real European army” got a big boost on Tuesday amid France and Germany signing an updated historic treaty reaffirming their close ties and commitment to support each other during a ceremony in the city of Aachen, a border town connected to Charlemagne and the Holy Roman Empire. But the timing for the renewal of the two countries’ 1963 post-war reconciliation accord is what’s most interesting, given both the rise of eurosceptic nationalism, the uncertainty of Brexit, and just as massive ‘Yellow Vests’ protests rage across France for a tenth week. 

    Macron addressed this trend specifically at the signing ceremony with the words, “At a time when Europe is threatened by nationalism, which is growing from within… Germany and France must assume their responsibility and show the way forward.”

    German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron attend a signing of a new agreement on bilateral cooperation and integration, known as Treaty of Aachen. Image via Reuters

    Germany’s Angela Merkel agreed, adding in her own remarks: “We are doing this because we live in special times and because in these times we need resolute, distinct, clear, forward-looking answers.” The agreement, which is being described as sparse on specifics or detail, focuses on foreign policy and defense ties between Berlin and Paris. 

    “Populism and nationalism are strengthening in all of our countries,” Merkel EU officials at the ceremony. “Seventy-four years – a single human lifetime – after the end of the second world war, what seems self-evident is being called into question once more.”

    Macron said those “who forget the value of Franco-German reconciliation are making themselves accomplices of the crimes of the past. Those who… spread lies are hurting the same people they are pretending to defend, by seeking to repeat history.”

    And in remarks that formed another affirmation that the two leaders are seeking to form an “EU army” Merkel said just before signing the treaty: “The fourth article of the treaty says we, Germany and France, are obliged to support and help each other, including through military force, in case of an attack on our sovereignty.” 

    The text of the updated treaty includes the aim of a “German-French economic area with common rules” and a “common military culture” that Merkel asserted could “contribute to the creation of a European army”.

    Later before a press pool, Merkel endorsed the idea of a joint European army further:

    We have taken major steps in the field of military cooperation, this is good and largely supported in this house. But I also have to say, seeing the developments of the recent years, that we have to work on a vision to establish a real European army one day.

    She clarified that the new military organization wouldn’t exist as a counterpart to or in competition with NATO, similar to prior comments she made before European parliament.

    Previously in November she had assured, “This is not an army against NATO, it can be a good complement to NATO.” This was also in support of Macron’s early November statements wherein he said of the proposed EU army, “We have to protect ourselves with respect to China, Russia and even the US” words that were issued on the heels President Trump’s initial announcement that the US would withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF).

    Despite such such assurances analysts say the natural and long term by-product of a “real European army” — as Macron and Merkel suggesting — would be the slow eroding and demise of US power in the region, which would no doubt weaken the NATO alliance. 

    The closest thing to a current “EU army” that does exist (if it can be called even that) – the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) – is generally perceived as more of a civil and emergency response joint EU member mechanism that would be ineffectual under the threat of an actual military invasion or major event. 

    Meanwhile perhaps a prototype EU army is already in action on the streets of Paris, revealing what critics fear it may actually be used for in the future…

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    The expected push back came swiftly and fiercely as Marine Le Pen, the leader of France’s National Rally party, slammed the updated Aachen treaty as “an act that borders on treason”, while others worried this is an attempt to create a “super EU” within the bloc.

    Alexander Gauland of Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), for example, warned:

    As populists, we insist that one first takes care of one’s own country… We don’t want Macron to renovate his country with German money … The EU is deeply divided. A special Franco-German relationship will alienate us even further.

    Italy’s far-right interior minister, Matteo Salvini, warned earlier this month that his country could seek an “Italian-Polish axis” to challenge the whole premise of a “Franco-German motor” that drives European centralization.

    Also notable of Tuesday’s signing is that the Aachen document prioritizes Germany being eventually accepted as permanent member of the U.N. Security Council, which it mandates as a priority for French-German diplomacy. Such a future scenario on the security council would shift power significantly in favor of a western bloc of allies the US, Britain, and France, which Germany would vote alongside.  

  • Dismantling The Doomsday Machines

    Authored by John Walsh via The Unz Review,

    “From a technical point of view, he (Stanley Kubrick) anticipated many things… Since that time, little has changed, honestly. The only difference is that modern weapons systems have become more sophisticated, more complex. But this idea of a retaliatory strike and the inability to manage these systems, yes, all of these things are relevant today. It (controlling the systems) will become even more difficult and more dangerous.” (Emphasis, jw)

    Vladimir Putin commenting on the film, Dr. Strangelove: or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb, in an interview with Oliver Stone, May 11, 2016. Putin had not seen the movie and did not know of it before Stone showed it to him.

    The Doomsday Machine, the title of Daniel Ellsberg’s superb book is not simply an imaginary contraption from a movie masterpiece. A Doomsday Machine uncannily like the one described in Dr. Strangeloveexists right now. In fact, there are two such machines, one in US hands and one in Russia’s. The US seeks to hide its version, but Ellsberg has revealed that it has existed since the 1950s. Russia has quietly admitted that it has one, named it formally, “Perimetr,” and also tagged it with a frighteningly apt nickname “Dead Hand.” Because the US and Russia are the only nations with Doomsday Machines to date we shall restrict this discussion to them.

    The Doomsday Machine was published just a little more than a year ago, but its terrifying message has failed to provoke action. And Daniel Ellsberg is a man who knows whereof he speaks; the subtitle of the book is “Confessions of a Nuclear War Planner,” which is how Ellsberg spent the early part of his career. What follows on this first anniversary of the book’s publication is a brief restatement of the main argument of the book and then a summary of Ellsberg’s plan of action. (Not included are memoirs and personal experiences of this remarkable, very intelligent and moral man, which are found in the book and which I recommend to flesh out the line of thought presented herein.) Ellsberg’s plan is to be considered a stop gap measure to remove the nuclear sword of Damocles hanging over our heads and allow time to move to total abolition of nuclear weapons, a much more arduous task. Hopefully this essay will serve as a reminder of Ellsberg’s warnings and as a call to act on them.

    How Do the Doomsday Machines Work? – Two components:

    What is the essence of a “Doomsday Machine”? The first component is a mechanism of launching nuclear weapons that is on hair trigger alert and not always in the hands of the Presidents of Russia or the US. The fact well concealed from the US public is that the US President or those in the line of Constitutional succession are not the only ones with a finger on the nuclear button, and the same is true in Russia. The second component of a Doomsday Machine is a weapon of such destructive force that it can kill billions in the immediate aftermath of an attack and then the entire human race and perhaps all animal life on earth.

    The Launch Mechanism – Command and Control

    Russia and the US each have a First Strike capability, that is the ability to strike the other with great force, destroy the other’s cities and industrial and military base – and knock out the other’s nuclear deterrentThe essence of a First Strike capacity is this ability to wipe out the deterrent of the other side or weaken it sufficiently that the remaining force could be intercepted for the most part. How can a targeted nation prevent the use of a First Strike? It must convince the adversary that such a strike is futile and will not destroy the deterrent of the targeted nation. The attacker must understand that he will not escape retribution, because the nuclear force of the targeted nation, its nuclear deterrent, will survive.

    Launch on Warning – Hair Trigger Alert. The first measure to prevent the loss of deterrence in the event of a First Strike is to put the nuclear force on Launch on Warning or Hair Trigger Alert status. Most of us have heard about this, but we ought to quake in our boots every time the thought of it crosses our minds. Since the time to respond to a First Strike is only tens of minutes for an ICBM (Intercontinental Ballistic Missile) attack, which takes about 30 minutes to travel between the US and Russia, and even less time for a short or intermediate range missile, a targeted country must have its nuclear force loaded onto delivery vehicles and capable of being launched on warning of a nuclear attack. The weapons must be ready to go and launched before the country is struck. This is called “Launch on Warning” and the weapons are sometimes said to be on “Hair Trigger Alert.” (There is some imprecision to the terminology surrounding nuclear weapons, partly due the obfuscation used by the US in negotiations. Steven Starr gives an account of this imprecision and a brief glossary here. I will use terms that are easily understood and common sensical. And I will define them when necessary.)

    Nuclear warheads that are loaded onto delivery vehicles are said to be “deployed,” and there were roughly 1600 such warheads loaded onto long range delivery vehicles, each, in Russian and U.S. hands in 2018. They are ready to be launched in minutes. (There are several thousand more warheads in reserve on each side but not “deployed.”) It is easy to see the danger inherent in this situation. The decision to launch must be made in minutes to prevent destruction of the nuclear deterrent and it would be hard to decide with certainty whether the warning of an attack was genuine or due to a technical malfunction. In fact, the signal that an attack is coming is always likely to be ambiguous. Even if the attack is real, the attacker will seek to hide it and so even then the signal will be ambiguous. Thus, even an ambiguous warning caused due to a technical malfunction must always be treated with seriousness and a decision to respond made within minutes.

    That a decision of such moment must be made so quickly, under the gun if you will, is a disaster waiting to happen. A mistake is bound to occur with the passage of sufficient time. And it nearly did during the Cuban Missile crisis and again in 1983 when the Soviets detected an attack coming from the United States. According to established protocol the warning was sufficient for the Soviet officer in charge to inform the leadership that a nuclear attack on the U.S. should be ordered. But that officer, Lieutenant Colonel Stefan Petrov, refused to follow protocol and instead interpreted the warning of an attack as a false alarm, which it was. So, a launch of Soviet weapons did not occur. In Russia, Stefan Petrov who died recently is hailed as “the man who saved the world.” This is the nuclear powder keg on which we all sit.

    Decapitation and Delegation – Unknowns have their finger on “the button.” The second measure to prevent loss of deterrence is Delegation. This is not widely known or understood. One aspect of a First Strike would be an attempt to knock out known command centers so that a retaliatory strike could not be ordered. This is known as Decapitation. The antidote to Decapitation is Delegation, that is others besides the Presidents and their immediate successors are authorized to press “the button.” It works this way. These “others” are located in secret command centers far from Washington or the Strategic Air Command Base in Colorado, both of which will be targeted in a Decapitation strike. If these secret centers find themselves cut off from communication with Washington or Moscow, then the assumption is made that a decapitating nuclear strike has occurred. In that event these “others” removed from the centers of power are authorized to the press the nuclear button!! (One can see why the Russians call their system of delegation, Perimetr.) These others are not elected officials and in fact we do not know who they are! What Ellsberg discovered is that some of these “others,” military men, were concerned that they too could be hit in a decapitating strike. So they had delegated authority to still others!! In fact, no one, perhaps not even the President and his circle of advisors, knows who can send off the nuclear weapons. Is it possible that one of them might be like the fictional General Jack D. Ripper, the psychotic and delusional man who gives the launch order in Dr. Strangelove – or a similar individual lusting after the Rapture?

    It does not take much imagination to see the multiple ways in which things could go wrong; a launch due to a false alarm of attack and a lack of time to make a thoughtful check and decision; a failure of communication that puts the perimeter out of touch with the center although no decapitation has in fact occurred; or a mad man or woman or a crazed ideologue who becomes one of the Delegated. A terrorist attack with a nuclear weapon on Moscow or Washington could also mimic a Decapitating attack and set in motion the fast Delegation to the delegatee. The appropriateness of the term “Dead Hand” for this arrangement is striking.

    It is true that so far as we know the probability of a mistake or a rogue element gaining control of nuclear weapons is small. (But the fact is we do not know what the situation is – it is hidden from us and perhaps even from elected officials.) The weapons are protected from rogue use by safety locks called Permissive Action Links (PALs) but these are not perfect, and they must be capable of activation by someone in the “perimeter” in the event of Delegation. And they are no protection against a false alarm of an attack. Despite how low the probability of an error might be, the dice are thrown every moment of every day, and with the passage of time, inevitably something will go wrong.

    In summary, First Strike Capability is the source of the problem. It leads to Launch on Warning and Delegation by a targeted nation. The U.S. pioneered and maintains a First Strike Capability and refuses to adopt a “No First Strike” policy. Another response to a first strike capability is that the targeted nation will build up the numbers in its nuclear force so that some will always survive an attack. That is precisely what happened in the first Cold War until it reached insane levels as shown graphically here.

    The Nuclear Weapon. The First Strike Arsenal.

    Obliteration of Russia and the U.S. The second component of a Doomsday Machine is the weapon itself. What is the destructive power of the ensemble of nuclear weapons as used in a First Strike? I know of no such quantitative estimates released by the Pentagon for the present day. They are badly needed. But in 1961 when Ellsberg was among those working on nuclear war fighting strategy for the Kennedy administration, he asked for an estimate from the Pentagon of the deaths due to a First Strike as the generals and their civilian war planners had mapped it out at the time. To his surprise the estimate came back at once – the Pentagon had made it and kept it hidden. Launching of the nuclear weapons planned for use in a First Strike by the U.S. would result in the deaths of 1.2 billion from explosions, radiation and fire. That number was the number of deaths and did not include injuries. And it was only the result of US weapons; it did not include deaths from a response from the Soviet side if they managed one. 1.2 billion people was the toll at a time when the population of the earth was about 3 billion! (Note that this toll does NOT include the effects of nuclear winter which was unknown at that time. More on that below.) And of course, such deaths would be concentrated in the targeted countries which in these times would be the US and Russia. Ellsberg was stunned to learn that the Pentagon would coolly make plans for such a gargantuan and immediate genocide. And so should we all be. What kind of mindset, what kind of ethics, what kind of morality has allowed for such a thing!

    Nuclear Winter and the Destruction of Humanity. But the damage does not stop there. This is the surprise that the Pentagon did not understand at the time. The ash from the fires of burning cities would be cast up into the stratosphere so high that it would not be rained out. There it would remain for at least a decade, blocking enough sunlight that no crops would grow for ten years. That is sufficient to cause total starvation and wipe out the entire human race with only a handful at most able to survive. This is Nuclear Winter. It is eerily reminiscent of Kubrick’s Doomsday Machine which resulted in a cloud of radioactivity circling the earth and wiping out all life. Nuclear Winter was first understood in the 1980s, but at that time careful assessment of the existing computer models seemed to indicate that it was not likely and so many “stopped worrying.” Now with the interest in Global Warming, new and better computer models have been developed. When the results of a nuclear first strike are put into these models, Nuclear Winter again makes its appearance as Brian Toon, Alan Robock and others have shown. The TED talks of Toon and of Robockdescribing their findings are worth watching; they are brief and well-illustrated. We are confronted with a genocide of all or nearly all humanity, an “Omnicide.”

    The launch of the 1600 “deployed” warheads of either the US or Russia is sufficient to give us nuclear winter. So we in the US have put in place a weapon system on hair trigger alert commanded by we know not whom which can kill virtually all Americans – along with most everyone else on the planet. We have on hair trigger alert a weapon which is in fact suicidal. Use the weapon and we lose our very existence. We should also be clear that even if we prescind from the effects of nuclear winter, the nuclear attacks would be concentrated on Russia and the US. So most of us would be consumed. Thus MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction) is replaced with SAD (Self-Assured Destruction).

    Disarming the Doomsday Machine

    What is Ellsberg’s plan to disarm the Doomsday Machines? He does not suggest total abolition of nuclear weapons, a worthy and ultimate goal, as a first step. He suggests intermediate steps, which can be accomplished much more quickly and remove the present danger.

    From what was said above, it is clear that the Doomsday Machine with its massive nuclear force, Launch On Warning and system of Delegation all grows out of a need to protect from a First Strike. The solution to the problem does not demand giving up all nukes or even a deterrent which many are loathe to do. And that is not hard to understand when we compare the fate of Kim Jong-un to that of Muammar Gaddafi or Saddam Hussein. Nor is it difficult to understand in the U.S. given the current intense Russophobia, or in Russia given the alarm caused by NATO’s drive to the East. This is one reason that total abolition of nuclear weapons or even abolition of a nuclear deterrent will be quite difficult. However, dismantling the Doomsday Machines, the immediate danger to humanity, does not demand giving up nuclear deterrence.

    Abandoning First Strike Policy and Capacity. Dismantling the Doomsday Machine with its Hair Trigger Alert and Delegation does mean abandoning a First Strike policy and capacity. And right now, only two countries have such First Strike capacity and only one, the U.S., refuses to take the right to use it “off the table” even when not under attack. What does the elimination of First Strike Capacity mean in practice; how can it be achieved? This turns out to involve two basic steps for the US.

    Dismantling the Minuteman III. First, the land-based ICBMs, the Minuteman III, must be entirely dismantled, not refurbished as is currently being undertaken at enormous cost. These missiles, the land-based part of the Strategic Triad, are highly accurate but fixed in place, “sitting ducks”; they are only good for a First Strike, for they will be destroyed in a successful First Strike by an adversary. Former Secretary of Defense William Perry and James E. Cartwright, formerly head of the Strategic Air Command and Vice Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, have both called fordismantling the Minuteman III. We would thereby also save a lot of money.

    Reducing the SLBM Force. The second step in dismantling the First Strike capacity is to reduce the Trident Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile (SLBM) force to the level where it cannot destroy the entire Russian land-based missile force. With these two measures in place the US would no longer have a First Strike Capability, and so Launch on Warning and Delegation upon apparent Decapitation would both be unnecessary. It is that simple.

    Of course, the Russians would also need to take similar measures that take into account the specifics of its arsenal. And that is where negotiations, treaties and verification come in. That in turn cannot take place in the current atmosphere of Russiagate and Russophobia, which is why both are existential threats and must be surmounted. We must talk despite our differences, real or perceived.

    However, were the US and Russia to abandon their First Strike capacity, a reasonable deterrent could be preserved. Such a deterrent should be far below the threshold for a nuclear winter. When Herbert York, one of the original nuclear war planners and strategists, was asked how many nuclear weapons it would take to guarantee deterrence, he suggested somewhere between one and one hundred, closer to one, perhaps ten. Of course, such a small number demands giving up on a missile defense system which has been a will-o’-the-wisp since the 1950s. But would a leader of any nation, even one equipped with an Anti-Ballistic Missile system, when confronted with 100 nuclear warheads facing him or her, be willing to risk ten getting through and demolishing 10 cities?

    But there is a deep problem here. The US at least has not built its nuclear forces with the simple object of deterrence. It has had the policy of being able to strike first and destroy or sufficiently degrade the Russian force so that there would be no retaliation. Ellsberg establishes that definitively based on his own experience in his days as a nuclear war planner. But this is also a will-o’-the-wisp. With Launch on Warning and Delegation both sides would be destroyed. So, this path must be abandoned. However, it is a path that has been trod for a long time. It has acquired many adherents and become embedded in the thinking of our “strategic war planners.” It will be hard to abandon this way of thinking which is what will make the simple steps outlined above politically difficult although technically and logistically quite simple. Moreover, in the mind of the public there is no clear distinction between First Strike and simple deterrence. And many favor a nuclear deterrent. So the movement for total abolition of nuclear weapons has a long way to go to reach its destination.

    An additional measure – Eliminating launch on warning, aka “hair trigger alert,” that is, “De-alerting.” An additional measure has also been proposed. All nuclear warheads should be removed from deployed status by Russia and the US. (The oft-used term for this is “De-alerting.”). That is, the warheads should be removed from their delivery vehicles and stored in a way that would take days or even weeks to deploy – that is to remount. This has been proposed by the Global Zero Commission on Nuclear Risk Reduction which says of itself:

    As world leaders descended on the United Nations in New York for the 2015 Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference, the Global Zero Commission on Nuclear Risk Reduction — led by former U.S. Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General James E. Cartwright and comprised of international military experts — issued a bold call for ending the Cold War-era practice of keeping nuclear weapons on hair-trigger alert.

    The Commission’s extensive report calls for (1) an urgent agreement between the United States and Russia to immediately eliminate “launch-on-warning” from their operational strategy, and to initiate a phased stand down of their high-alert strategic forces….; and (2) a longer-term global agreement requiring all nuclear weapons countries to refrain from putting their nuclear weapons on high alert.

    Urgent action is needed, according to the Commission, because of heightened tensions between the United States and Russia, ongoing geopolitical and territorial disputes involving other nuclear countries that could escalate, and an emerging global trend toward placing nuclear weapons on high alert.

    The proposal, backed by more than 75 former senior political officials, national security experts and top military commanders, makes the case that a multinational de-alerting agreement could greatly mitigate the many risks of nuclear weapons use, including from computer error, cyber launch, accidental detonations, unauthorized “insider” launch, false warning of enemy attack, and rushed nuclear decision-making.

    The full report is here.

    Such an arrangement must be solidly negotiated and verifiable. It would seem that the US President could do this by executive order and at little cost. For submarines the nuclear warheads would be stored on shore in a way that makes it impossible to reload for the period of delay that is negotiated. This arrangement means that no decisions about nuclear warfare need be taken at a moment’s notice, no launch on warning is possible or even relevant any longer and the possibility of Decapitation and the consequent necessity of Delegation disappear. And when either nuclear state feels existentially threatened by conventional forces, its first response need not be to fire a nuclear weapon. Its first response could be to deploy its warheads (that is, reload the launch vehicles) while it negotiates over the threat. That along with Ellsberg’s suggestions would greatly stabilize the world and lessen to almost zero the probability of nuclear war based on misjudgment or accident. From there the work on ever greater levels of reduction leading eventually to total abolition of nuclear weapons could go forward.

    The Work Ahead to Win Support for Dismantling the Doomsday Machines

    To be able to get Congress or the Executive to move toward these changes, a number of things will be necessary. First is information. As a very basic example, Ellsberg learned in 1961 that a US First Strike at that time would produce 1.2 billion deaths as an immediate result of Nuclear War, excluding any effects of nuclear winter and excluding a Soviet response. We deserve to know what those numbers are now. Here, Ellsberg argues, both public pressure and the work of whistle blowers will be needed. As another example, we need to know from the Pentagon and the National Academy of Sciences whether the result of a US First Strike of the magnitude now on hair trigger alert would lead to nuclear winter – as it seems almost certain it would.

    But far more than that would be needed. There must be some form of pressure to wake up the politicians and force them to dismantle the Doomsday Machines. But this is missing. In part with the end of the First Cold War, many thought that the danger had disappeared. Clearly it has not. A movement to abolish the Doomsday Machine is a threat to the Military Industrial Complex and so the MIC and its media acolytes would prefer silence or opposition to such efforts. It may be that the generations which lived through the first Cold War and went through its terrors, from “duck and cover” drills to mushroom cloud nightmares, to the Cuban Missile Crisis may have a special role to play. Their psyches have been most affected by nuclear horrors and they may be the best ones to convince succeeding generations of the dangers. But the strategy and tactics for such an effort have yet to be outlined. It is a task that lies before us.

    The first step to sanity is to eliminate ‘launch on warning’ and the second step would be to rid ourselves and the Russians of a ‘First Strike policy’ and capacity and negotiate a stable deterrent, small enough that it does not threaten nuclear winter. That is something that the nuclear powers and the broad public can easily accept despite the opposition of a small number of nuclear war fighters. Here the idea of negotiations is not to make the other side more vulnerable but to give the “adversary” and oneself a small, stable nuclear deterrent. Such a win-win approach to negotiations is in fact necessary for survival while we take the more difficult road to total nuclear abolition.

    Total abolition should be the ultimate goal because no human hand should be allowed to wield species-destroying power. But it seems that an intermediate goal is not only needed to give us the breathing space to get to zero nuclear weapons. An intermediate and readily achievable goal can call attention to the problem and motivate large numbers of people. The Nuclear Freeze movement of the 1980s is a very successful example of this sort of effort; it played a big role in making the Reagan-Gorbachev accords possible. The effort to kill the Doomsday Machines might well be called something like Step Away From Doomsday or simply Step Away. The time may be ripe for such an effort. Getting to zero will require a breakthrough in the way countries deal with one another, especially nuclear armed countries! Let us give ourselves the breathing space to accomplish that.

  • No One Wants To Buy Superyacht Seized In The 1MDB Scandal 

    Malaysia is finding it very hard to sell Equanimity, a 300-foot superyacht linked to the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) scandal. The vessel is among $1.7 billion in assets bought by fugitive Malaysian financier Jho Low, with funds that were siphoned off from 1MDB –  the source of so many headaches for Goldman Sachs in recent months.

    Burgess, a yacht brokerage firm, was appointed as the exclusive worldwide Central Agent by the High Courts in Malaysia to assist with the judicial sale of the vessel. Bidding on the superyacht started in early November, however, by the end of the month, the yacht failed to attract bidders and remains docked at a naval base near Kuala Lumpur.

    Johnathan Beckett, chief executive officer of Burgess, who is overseeing the sale, was quoted by Bloomberg as saying that it is difficult to get buyers to travel to Malaysia to examine the yacht.

    “It’s a challenge to persuade a buyer in Monaco to even travel as far as the Italian port of Genoa to see yachts…never mind Malaysia,” Beckett said.

    At a price of $130 million, Equanimity is the largest yacht listed on Burgess’s website. The vessel can accommodate up to 22 guests and 31 crew, with amenities that include a beach club, health center with gym, massage room, sauna, hammam, plunge pool and beauty salon. Other amenities and equipment include a hospital, a helipad (certified for an Airbus EC-135 or equivalent), and a circular swimming pool. Just last year it had a price tag of approximately $250 million.

    While there has been some interest from local and foreign buyers, all of the offers have been too low, Beckett said last week at a Superyachts.com event in London.

    The Malaysian government is attempting to quickly dispose of the vessel, which was built in 2014 and costs the government $729,000 per month to maintain.

    Malaysia Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad is trying to recover the $4.5 billion of 1MDB funds that had been stolen before he took office. With a Malaysian court declining all bids from the prior auction, the vessel is now being offered through a conventional sale in March. 

  • Eight Wall Prototypes: None Meet Operational Standards Or Trump's Cost Estimate

    Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

    There are now 8 wall prototypes of varying cost and beauty. None meet operational standards or Trump’s purported cost.

    Trump’s Slat Steel Barrier

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    Standoff

    A standoff over funding for President Donald Trump’s long-promised border wall has resulted in the longest-ever shutdown of the US government.

    Trump wants $5.7 billion to build a beautiful wall to stop the “humanitarian and security crisis”.

    House speaker Nancy Pelosi says no. So here we are. Let’s ponder designs and costs as described in Trump Wall – All You Need to Know.

    No New Additions

    Before Mr Trump took office, there were 654 miles of barrier along the southern border – made up of 354 miles of barriers to stop pedestrians and 300 miles of anti-vehicle fencing.

    Trump wants a 2,000 mile wall.

    Estimated Cost for Trump’s Wall

    The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) previously estimated a wall spanning half the border would cost up to $25 billion, but it has now said it is still looking at options to determine the price tag.

    US Customs and Border Protection (CPB) says that, on average, it costs approximately $6.5 million per mile to construct a new border wall or replace existing legacy fence.

    Assuming the current 654 miles are all usable, the math is simple enough. (2000 – 654) * $6.5 Million= $8,749,000,000. That is well under their estimate. If one assumes that the entire wall will be replaced, we arrive at $13 billion.

    I do not believe these estimate include land cost, and they are also likely low-ball estimates. One can likely toss Senator McCaskill’s estimate out the window as well.

    Eight Prototypes

    Officials at the US Customs and Border Protection agency have said none of the Trump administration prototypes tested in 2017 met its operational requirements.

    However, they did provide “valuable data” to help select design elements in the future, they added.

    Illegal Immigration From Canada

    Most illegal immigration is from visa ‘overstayers’, not people crossing the border. Although the number of overstayers overall dropped to around 420,000 in May 2018 – it was still more than the number of people arrested trying to enter illegally via the Mexico-US border.

    Land Seizures Continue

    The Texas Tribune reports feds moving ahead with land seizures for South Texas border wall.

    As a national debate raged about family separations at the border, U.S. Customs and Border Protection told a group of South Texas officials earlier this week that the federal government plans to move forward with private land seizures in the Rio Grande Valley to build sections of President Donald Trump’s border wall.

    An investigation last year by ProPublica and The Texas Tribune found that the federal government invoked a little-known Great Depression-era law that allowed it to swiftly seize land to build the barrier and compensate landowners later. Dozens of landowners whose property was taken for the barrier still haven’t received compensation as lawsuits over the fair value of the seized land linger in court.

    The investigation also found that during the process the U.S. Department of Homeland Security cut unfair real estate deals, secretly waived legal safeguards for property owners and ultimately abused the government’s extraordinary power to take land from private citizens.

    You may also wish to consider Trump’s border wall threatens to end Texas family’s 250 years of ranching on Rio Grande.

    It’s easy to support the wall as long as it isn’t your property being seized, and your cattle’s access to water shut off.

    And for what? It is unlikely to stop the flow of humans or drugs. If by some chance it stops drugs, prices will go up, and so will the number of crimes committed to pay for drugs.

    Death Wall Might Work

    If you want to build a wall that works, make it a double wall each 6 feet tall, with 40 yards separating the walls.

    Shoot anything with two legs that enters the zone. After a few deaths and huge public outcry, the illegal entries from Mexico would stop.

    That is not a serious suggestion, I am merely stating a wall plan that would be cheaper and arguably work better.

    How badly do we want to protect our borders?

    A Better Wall

    Alternatively, and better yet, enforce e-Verify, place stiff penalties on companies that violate it, and shut off all benefits for illegals.

    In the grand scheme of things, $6 billion for a wall or even $20 billion is not a lot of money.

    Were it not for the odious land grab, and threats of property ending up on the wrong side of the fence (it has happened already), one might conclude “it’s a small price to pay”.

    However, people who make such rationalizations are seldom the ones paying the “small price”.

  • China Starts "Debt Shaming": New App Warns Users If They Are Walking Near Someone In Debt

    Authorities in the northern Chinese province of Hebei have rolled out an app over WeChat which can tell people if they’re walking near someone in debt, according to China Daily

    The program, aptly named “map of deadbeat debtors,” flashes a warning if someone in debt is within a 500-meter radius – showing their exact location according to a screenshot of the app. 

    Whether the app reveals the debtors’ names or photos is unknown, nor does China Daily mention how much money is owed or to whom – but according to paper the app allows people to “whistle-blow on debtors capable of paying their debts.”

    “It’s a part of our measures to enforce our rulings and create a socially credible environment,” said a spokesman for the Higher People’s Court of Hebei – which is behind the app. 

    The “map of deadbeat debtors” is yet the latest in China’s push towards a shame-based “social credit score” system which has already been deployed in several parts of the country. According to a November report, Beijing has an ambitious plan to control China’s citizens through a system of social scoring that punishes behavior it does not approve. 

    Some critics warn the new system is fraught with risks and could reduce humans to little more than a report card, said Bloomberg

    Hangzhou, the capital city of China’s Zhejiang province, rolled out its social credit system earlier this year, rewarding “pro-social behaviors” such as blood donations, healthy lifestyles, and volunteer work while punishing those who violate traffic laws, smoke and drink, and speak poorly about government. 

    By mid-Q2, China had blocked more than 11 million flights and 4 million high-speed train trips for people who had poor social credit scores, according to the National Development and Reform Commission.

    According to the Beijing plan, different agencies will link databases to get a more detailed picture of every resident’s interactions across a multitude of financial and social platforms

    In March, we reported that China had rolled out an advanced facial recognition system over 16 provinces, cities and autonomous regions ominously called “SkyNet” for the “security and protection” of the country, reports Workers’ Daily. 

    The system is able to identify 40 facial features, regardless of angles and lighting, at an accuracy rate of 99.8 percent,” reported the People’s Daily. “It can also scan faces and compare them with its database of criminal suspects at large at a speed of 3 billion times a second, indicating that all Chinese people can be compared in the system within only one second.”

    Between debt-shaming and skynet, China’s future is looking more and more dystopian as time goes on. 

  • Food Cart Lady At Women's March Denies Service To Man… Because He's A Man

    Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

    In the America of today social justice warriors virtue signaling their tolerance for others have been repeatedly and quite often exposed for the bigots, sexists, and racists that they really are.

    Take, for example, the following video provided by Brandon Farley via his Twitter page, in which a food cart lady parked at the PDX Women’s March in the hyper-tolerant city of Portland this past weekend refused service to an individual requesting a meal reportedly based on the fact that he is a male.

    Tolerance at its finest.

    You won’t see this one in the mainstream media because it doesn’t fit the narrative.

    Misandrists – or man haters – are not vilified or abhorred like a teenage kid with a red hat smiling during the drumming of a traditional Native America tune, but rather, are defended and raised to 15-minute celebrity status among the very peers who call for death sentences against anyone who disagrees with their oft extreme and skewed personal belief systems.

    This, right here, is the hypocrisy of the modern day social justice warrior, and though we don’t see the complete incident because the preceding moments have not been made available, it sure does appear to be a case of refusal of service based on a bias on the part of the lady working the cart:

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    If we’re not mistaken, it is against Federal Law to discriminate against a person because of their race or sex.

  • Workers' Paradise? Employees In China Crawl Through Streets After Missing Sales Targets

    Video of employees from a Chinese company specializing in beauty products who were forced by their bosses to crawl a long distance on a busy street went viral last week, sparking global outrage at the appalling display, which further happened to involve a nearly all female staff.

    Screenshots of the viral video showing corporal punishment for employees in Shandong province. 

    The workers were literally forced to crawl on all fours after reportedly failing to reach their annual sales targets in the busy traffic of Tengzhou — a city in Shandong province in the country’s east. The group was filmed being driven on by a male supervisor bearing a flag with the name of the firm, which reportedly disrupted traffic.

    Onlookers called the police, which soon arrived on the scene and warned the boss it must cease the punishment, as China has laws forbidding corporal punishment or acts of intentional public humiliation for workers; however, in recent years there’s been an observable trend that companies are increasing such bizarre tactics, which has involved everything from whipping to forced worm eating to caning. 

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    Examples chronicled by the Daily Mail include the following:

    Last month, workers at a Chinese hair salon were forced to slap themselves in the face 100 times, eat raw chillies and run 10km because their work performance hadn’t reached their boss’s expectation.

    In November, employees at a home improvement firm in Zunyi, Guizhou province, were whipped with belts, forced to drink urine and eat insects after failing to reach their targets.

    But few such shocking acts have been filmed (with some notable exceptions), which has led some skeptics online to suggest this week’s forced crawling spectacle could have been a PR stunt. But if so it appears to have backfired as the company has reportedly been temporarily shut down. 

    One of the women forced to crawl the long distance confirmed to police it was a “self-discipline measure” for missing end-of-year targets, according to reports.

    In a similar incident last May — though perhaps less public as it wasn’t in the middle of a busy intersection video emerged from a monthly appraisal session in Yichand in central Hubei province.

    The South China Morning Post reported at the time that a female boss slapped six male workers multiple times in what appeared a bizarre ritual to boost lagging morale. 

    At the close of the ordeal, the employees were all forced to clap. During that event, as well as this week’s abuse incident, the companies claimed that staff members were willing participants in their punishment. 

  • The Generation That Will Save The World?

    Authored by Jeff Thomas via InternationalMan.com,

    Eighty-four percent of millennials admit that they don’t know how to change a lightbulb. When asked what they do if one goes out, most either said that they call the landlord to fix it, or just accept having less light in future.

    Readers of this publication will be savvy enough to know that a crisis of biblical proportions is on the way. It will begin as an economic crisis, but will quickly morph into a political and social crisis as well.

    There can be no doubt that my generation (the baby boomers) have done more to create this crisis than any other. So, who will be the ones that will have to deal with the crisis, once it’s under way?

    Well, that always falls to the young, strong, energetic segment of the population. The twenty-to-forty group would be the ones who would need to roll up their sleeves and bail out the sinking rowboat.

    That means that, by the time we’re in crisis mode, the generation that will inherit the job of fixing the mammoth problem will be the millennials.

    Uh-oh.

    The “depression generation” were known for hard work and self-reliance. Their children – the boomers – were their spoiled children, who became the yuppies. They sought to live luxuriously, with a minimum of responsibility. The next generation – the millennials – have, so far, proven to be a generation that not only does not wish to take on responsibility, they are literally unable to do so.

    With notable exceptions, it’s a generation of people who blindly expect that their parents, the government and perhaps the tooth fairy, have the full responsibility to take away all of their problems and inconveniences. This has reached the perverse degree that students at even the best universities have “safe spaces,” where no one may say anything that upsets them. Harvard now has rooms where students who are feeling stressed can play with Play-doh. Rules are established based not upon what is practical or workable, but on “How I feel at the moment.”

    This is not just a generation that’s a bit spoiled and needs a shot of hard reality to aid their maturing process. This, tragically, is a generation that is simply unable to cope with responsibility of any kind – a generation that, literally does not know where to begin if a task as simple as changing a light bulb occurs.

    Those from older generations tend to say, vaguely, “Well I suppose they’ll just have to grow up. If there’s a crisis, they’ll just have to get on with it.”

    Well, no, unfortunately, neither the mindset nor the skillset exists for millennials to take on the job. At best they will fail to act. Just as they now accept darkness rather than figure out how to change a lightbulb, they’ll fail to roll up their sleeves to rebuild a working market during and after a crisis. But, at worst, they’ll have meltdowns, resorting to violence in the belief that, “This shouldn’t be happening to me!”

    So, if this is the case, who, then, will be the saviours of the rather large portion of the world that will be self-destructing?

    Well, historically, these developments tend to be generational, as described above. So, to understand how the crisis will play out, we might look at countries that are further along on the same curve. After all, boom and bust patterns are perennial; it’s just that, whilst one nation is in boom mode, there’s always another that’s is in bust mode.

    France fell apart around 1800 and Russia did so around 1900. But we have a more recent example, right in the western hemisphere – Cuba.

    In 1959, the Cuban government had become so corrupt and so oppressive that a small band of ne’er-do-wells was able to take over, with very little bloodshed.

    Cubans from my generation were so pleased to have the fearsome Battista removed that they were prepared to accept whatever jury-rigged government the Castro brothers might dish up. Fidel Castro was no communist, but he quickly adopted communism when the Soviet Union agreed to pay him three times the going price for Cuban sugar, and they would take all he could produce.

    Then, in 1991, the Soviet Union went bust and the flow of unrealistically high revenue came to a grinding halt. Cuba was thrust into dire poverty. (It was so extreme that, during that period, I recall never seeing a dog or cat on the streets of Havana, as they had all gone to the stewpot.)

    Then, in the late nineties, Hugo Chavez began to pour money into Cuba and the country began to recover. At that same time, Raul Castro began to create a capitalist society within the communist framework. Private businesses were not only allowed, but encouraged. In time, the taxes that these businesses paid to the government refloated it and created the beginnings of prosperity. This year, Cuba will decide on changes to its constitution that will include a major shift toward a free market. Cuba, although most of the world does not yet understand it, is one of the emerging capitalist countries.

    So, let’s have a look at how this has played out on the street level. How have the people of Cuba dealt with this over the last sixty years?

    Well, for more than half the population, life is measurably better. For some, say 20%, there is genuine prosperity. Plenty of food, lots of private restaurants, nicer, newer clothes and new Hyundai SUV’s to replace the rusting Russian Ladas.

    But, psychologically, what changes have taken place? Well, interestingly, almost no change has occurred, other than a generational one. Those old enough to remember the days of the revolution still talk on the park benches about the hope that that period created and wish that those days would return. They won’t. The generation that came after them, now in their forties, pine for the days of Russian largesse, vainly hoping that another Russia will come along and put bread on their tables. That won’t happen either.

    However, those Cubans in their twenties have only known the post-Russian collapse period. They thoroughly understand that the government is never going to deliver on their promises of free stuff for all, sufficient to sustain life. They know, first hand, that there’s only one solution – go out and work.

    Today, a twenty-something waiter in a Havana restaurant will say, “If I work ten hours a day, I’ll be able to buy a flat screen TV. If I work twelve, I’ll also be the first in my family to have an air conditioner.”

    An entire generation in Cuba is figuring out the simple equation that work = prosperity. Cuba is only in the formative stages of this understanding, but their future is promising.

    Concurrently, in the US, Canada and Europe, the generation that will be tasked with digging their countries out of depression will be the millennials. They will fail utterly at their task and they won’t reprogramme their brains to understand what’s necessary, any more than the last two generations of Cubans have. The task will fall to the next generation. It will be their children who take on the task and rebuild.

    What this means is that the Greater Depression will not be brief. A recovery is likely to take twenty-five years, since another generation after the millennials will need to mature before a recovery can be effected.

    And during that time, those jurisdictions will be quite a bit less than ideal as places of domicile.

    *  *  *

    Clearly, there are many strange things afoot in the world. Distortions of markets, distortions of culture. It’s wise to wonder what’s going to happen, and to take advantage of growth while also being prepared for crisis. How will you protect yourself in the next crisis? See our PDF guide that will show you exactly how. Click here to download it now.

  • For Silicon Valley's Startups, The Bill Is Finally Coming Due

    Silicon Valley startups like Hustle, an ad-messaging company that spent lavishly on things like on-tap kombucha and arcade games for employees, are learning the hard way that party is coming to an end and the bill is finally due. Earlier this month, the company announced mass layoffs according to the WSJ . This depressing scene is now playing out across countless Silicon Valley startups, which sprung up like mushrooms when the money was easy and which are now starting to fold as the decade-long credit cycle tests the limits of the current bubble. 

    Startup investors and company founders warn that the unchecked growth of the past several years—which by some metrics exceeded heights from the dot-com boom—is hitting a limit. A rout of publicly traded technology companies is fostering newfound restraint for investors in Silicon Valley, especially for younger, cash-strapped startups like Hustle.

    Startup investor Sunny Dhillon told the WSJ: “The unbridled optimism that inhabits our world is getting a shot of realism.”

    To be sure, the warning signs were easy to spot, starting with the shrinking number of seed deals, which fell to just 882 in Q4 versus more than 1500 that took place three years ago. 

    Because VCs have a tendency to follow technology stocks, the NASDAQ’s recent 12% pullback from its Sept 2018 highs put pressure on many startups: scooter companies Bird Rides and Lime both had to lower their valuation targets in order to raise capital during their last funding round. Other startups are failing outright, like Munchery, a meal kit service that had raised more than $100 million from VCs.

    Even far more developed companies such as Elon Musk’s SpaceX have suffered from the rising pressure on startups to deliver. After failing to meet recent fundraising targets, the company had to lay off 600 employees and stated publicly that it had “extraordinarily difficult challenges ahead.”

    Perhaps the most prominent recent example of a major investor – one that has been spending liberally over the past 10 years – suddenly getting cold feet, is Softbank which had to slash 88% of its planned $16 billion investment in WeWork after the bank’s backers objected to the deal. 

    Josh Wolfe of Lux Capital summarized the attitude in the VC world of changing from “’fear of missing out’ [to] ’shame of being suckered’.”

    The sudden change in sentiment comes after a bumper year: U.S. VC backed companies raised a record $131 billion last year – eclipsed only by the previous record of $105 billion in the year 2000. And not all companies appear to be stuck – Uber and Airbnb are both still eyeing IPOs to help early investors cash out. 

    Blockchain VC investor Christian Ferris said that he has served on the board of three companies that have shut down this year. He said: “Last year, they were flying you in business class. This year, they can barely afford coach.”

    Hustle, which placed two video games costing $12,995 in its headquarters, still has a pulse, albeit with a much smaller spending footprint. Hustle even went as far as to rip its espresso machine out of the kitchen at the company’s headquarters.

    Hustle was hiring new employees recently, despite having fallen short of revenue goals for the quarter and year, people familiar with the matter said. Investors were uninterested in putting in new money after Hustle failed to reach targets in areas such as signing up new corporate clients, meaning it’s only a matter of time before the plug is pulled.

    Its CEO and founder, Roddy Lindsay, said in a company disclosure about its recent layoffs: “I made the rookie misstep of not watching our growth closely enough, and we ended up overbuilding our team beyond our means.”

    Another way of saying that” money was very easy… and then it no longer was.

    Looks like it’s back to Folgers for the remaining employees, who will have a job for at least a few more months.

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Today’s News 22nd January 2019

  • Death Of Russiagate? Mueller Team Tied To Mifsud's Network

    Via Disobedient Media,

    In April last year, Disobedient Media broke coverage of the British involvement in the Trump-Russia collusion narrative, asking why All Russiagate Roads Lead To London, via the quasi-scholar Joseph Mifsud and others.

    The issue was also raised by WikiLeaks’s Julian Assange, just days before the Ecuadorian government silenced him last March. Assange’s Twitter thread cited research by Chris Blackburn, who spoke with Disobedient Media on multiple occasions covering Joseph Mifsud’s ties to British intelligence figures and organizations, as well as his links to Hillary Clinton’s Presidential campaign, the FBI, CIA and the private cyber-security firm Crowdstrike.

    We return, now, to this issue and specifically the research of Chris Blackburn, to place the final nail in the coffin of the Trump-Russia collusion charade. Blackburn’s insights are incredible not only because they return us to the earliest reporting on the role of British intelligence figures in manufacturing the Trump-Russia collusion narrative, but because they also implicate members of Mueller’s investigation. What we are left with is an indication of collusion between factions of the US and UK intelligence community in fabricating evidence of Trump-Russia collusion: a scandal that would have rocked the legacy press to its core, if Western establishment-backed media had a spine.

    In Disobedient Media’s previous coverage of Blackburn’s work, he described his experience in intelligence:

    “I’ve been involved in numerous investigations that involve counter-intelligence techniques in the past. I used to work for the 9/11 Families United to Bankrupt Terrorism, one of the biggest tort actions in American history. I helped build a profile of Osama bin Laden’s financial and political network, which was slightly different to the one that had been built by the CIA’s Alec Station, a dedicated task force which was focused on Osama bin Laden and Al-Qaeda. Alec Station designed its profile to hunt Osama bin Laden and disrupt his network. I thought it was flawed. It had failed to take into account Osama’s historical links to Pakistan’s main political parties or that he was the figurehead for a couple of organizations, not just Al-Qaeda.”

    “I also ran a few conferences for US intelligence leaders during the Bush administration. After the 9/11 Commission published its report into the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon it created a public outreach program. The US National Intelligence Conference and Exposition (Intelcon) was one of the avenues it used. I was responsible for creating the ‘View from Abroad’ track. We had guidance from former Senator Slade Gorton and Jamie Gorelick, who both sat on the 9/11 Commission. We got leaders such as Sir John Chilcot and Baroness Pauline Neville Jones to come and help share their experiences on how the US would be able to heal the rifts after 9/11.”

    “The US intelligence community was suffering from severe turf wars and firewalls, which were hampering counter-terrorism efforts. They were concentrating on undermining each other rather than tackling terrorism. I had mainly concentrated on the Middle East, but in 2003 I switched my focus to terrorism in South Asia.”

    Counter Terrorism, Not Counter Intelligence, Sparked Probe

    In an article published by The Telegraph last November, the paper acknowledged the following:

    “It forces the spotlight on whether the UK played a role in the FBI’s investigation launched before the 2016 presidential election into Trump campaign ties to the Kremlin… Mr. Trump’s allies and former advisers are raising questions about the UK’s role in the start of the probe, given many of the key figures and meetings were located in Britain… One former top White House adviser to Mr. Trump made similar insinuations, telling this newspaper: “You know the Brits are up to their neck.” The source added on the Page wiretap application: “I think that stuff is going to implicate MI5 and MI6 in a bunch of activities they don’t want to be implicated in, along with FBI, counter-terrorism and the CIA.” [Emphasis Added]

    The article cites George Papadopoulos, who asked why the “British intelligence apparatus was weaponized against Trump and his advisers.” Papadopoulos has also addressed the issue at length via Twitter. In response to the Telegraph’s coverage of the issue, Chris Blackburn wrote via Twitter:

    “The Telegraph story on Trump Russia acknowledges that activities involving counter-terrorism are at the heart of the scandal…not counter-intelligence. If the [London Centre for International Law Practice] was British state, not private, some Commonwealth countries are going to be seriously pissed off.”

    Blackburn spoke with Disobedient Media, saying:

    “If you factor in the dreadful reporting to discredit Joseph Mifsud and leaks, it is pretty clear something rather strange happened to George Papadopoulos during the campaign while he was shuttling around Europe and the Middle East. He was working with people who have intelligence links at the London Centre of International Law Practice. A recent article in The Telegraph also alludes to MI5, MI6, and CIA using counter-terrorism assets which would tie into the London Centre of International Law Practice (LCILP), and its sister organizations, doing counter-terrorism work for the Australian, UK and US governments. They quote anonymous officials who believe that their intelligence agencies used counter-terrorism personnel to kick start the investigation/scandal.” [Emphasis Added]

    Blackburn discussed this differentiation with Disobedient Media:

    “Counter-terrorism is obviously involved in more kinetic, violent political actions-concerning mass casualty events, bombings, assassinations, poisonings, and hacking. But, the lines are blurring between them. Counter-intelligence cases have been known to stretch for decades- often relying on nothing more than paranoia and suspicion to fuel investigations. Counter-terrorism is also a broader discipline as it involves tactical elements like hostage rescue, crime scene investigations, and explosive specialists. Counter-Terrorism is a collaborative effort with counter-terrorism officers working closely with local and regional police forces and civic organizations. There is also a wider academic field around countering violent, and radical ideology which promotes terrorism and insurgencies. Cybersecurity has become the third major discipline in intelligence. The London Center of International Law Practice, the mysterious intelligence company that employed both Papadopoulos and Mifsud, had also been working in that area.”

    Continuing, Blackburn pinpointed the significance of defining counter-terrorism as the starting point of the investigation, saying: “It shows that there is a high probability that intelligence was deliberately abused to make Papadopoulos’ activities look like they were something else. As counter-terrorism and counterintelligence are close in tactics and methods, it would seem that they were used because they share the same skill sets – covert evidence gathering and deception. It’s basically sleight of hand. A piece of theatre would be more precise. However, we don’t know if the FBI knew it was real or make-believe. It’s more likely that the CIA played the FBI with the help of close allies who were suspicious and frightened of a Trump presidency.”

    Mueller’s Team And Joseph Mifsud

    Zainab Ahmad, a member of Mueller’s legal team, is the former Assistant United States Attorney in the Eastern District of New York. As pointed out by Blackburn, Ahmad attended a Global Center on Cooperative Security event in 2017. In recent days, Blackburn wrote via Twitter:

    “Zainab Ahmad is a major player in the Russiagate scandal at the DOJ. Does she work for SC Mueller? She was at a GCCS event in May 2017. Arvinder Sambei, a co-director of the [London Centre of International Law Practice], worked with Joseph Mifsud, [George Papadopoulos] and [Simona Mangiante]. She’s a GCCS consultant.”

    Blackburn told this author:

    “Zainab Ahmad was one of the first DOJ prosecutors to have seen the Steele dossier. In May 2017, she attended a counter-terrorism conference in New York with the Global Center on Cooperative Security (GCCS), an organization which Joseph Mifsud, the alleged Russian spy, had been working within London and Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.”

    Zainab Ahmad (AHMAD). Image via the Combatting Terrorism Center, West Point

    “Richard Barrett, the Former Chief of Counter-Terrorism at MI6, Britain’s foreign intelligence department traveled with Mifsud to Saudi Arabia to give a talk on terrorism in 2017. Ex-CIA officers, US Defense, and US Treasury officials were also there. The London Centre of International Law Practice’s relationship to the Global Center had been established in 2014. The Global Center on Cooperative Security made Martin Polaine and Arvinder Sambei consultants, they then became directors at the London Centre of International Law Practice.”

    “The Global Center on Cooperative Security’s first major UK conference was at Joseph Mifsud’s London Academy of Diplomacy (LAD). Mifsud then followed Arvinder Sambei and Nagi Idris over to the London Centre of International Law Practice. Sources have told me that Mifsud was moonlighting as a specialist on counter-terrorism and Islamism while working at LAD which explains why he went to work in counter-terrorism after LAD folded.”

    “I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Global Center on Cooperative Security is connected to various elements that popped up in the Papadopoulos case. The fact that a prosecutor on Mueller’s team was at Global Center before Mueller was appointed as special counsel is also troubling.”

    Days ago, The Hill reported on Congressional testimony by Bruce Ohr, revealing that when served as a DOJ official, he warned FBI and DOJ figures that the Steele dossier was problematic and linked to the Clintons. Critically, The Hill writes:

    “Those he briefed included Andrew Weissmann, then the head of DOJ’s fraud section; Bruce Swartz, longtime head of DOJ’s international operations, and Zainab Ahmad, an accomplished terrorism prosecutor who, at the time, was assigned to work with Lynch as a senior counselor. Ahmad and Weissmann would go on to work for Mueller, the special prosecutor overseeing the Russia probe.” [Emphasis Added]

    This point is essential, as it not only describes Ahmad’s role in Mueller’s team but places her at a crucial pre-investigation meeting.

    Last year, Blackburn noted the connection between Mifsud and Arvinder Sambei, writing: “LCILP director and FBI counsel, works with Mike Smith at the Global Center. They ran joint counter-terrorism conferences and training with Mifsud’s London Academy. Sambei then brought Mifsud over to the [London Centre of International Law Practice]. [Global Center works with Aussies, UK and US State too.”

    Sambei has been described elsewhere as a “Former practising barrister, Senior Crown Prosecutor with the Crown Prosecution Service of England & Wales, and Legal Adviser at the Permanent Joint Headquarters (PJHQ), Ministry of Defence.” [British spelling has been retained]

    Arvinder Sambei. Image via the Public International Law Advisory Group

    That Sambei has been so thoroughly linked to organizations where Mifsud was a central figure is yet another cause of suspicion regarding allegations that Joseph Mifsud was a shadowy, unknown Russian agent until the summer of 2016. She is also a direct link between Robert Mueller and Mifsud.

    Blackburn wrote via Twitter: “Arvinder Sambei helped to organize LCILP’s counter-terrorism and corruption events. She used her contacts in the US to bring in Middle Eastern government officials that were seen to be vulnerable to graft. Lisa Osofsky, former FBI Deputy General Counsel, was working with her.” Below, Arvinder is pictured at a London Centre of International Law Practice (LCILP) event.

    Arvinder Sambei, pictured at an LCILP event. Image via Chris Blackburn, Twitter

    As Chris Blackburn told this author:

    Mifsud and Papadopoulos’s co-director Arvinder Sambei was also the former FBI British counsel working 9/11 cases for Robert Mueller. She also runs a consultancy which deals with Special Investigative Measure (SIMs) which is just a posh description for covert espionage and evidence gathering. She has worked for major intelligence and national law agencies in the past. She wore two hats as a director of London Centre and a consultant for the Global Center on Cooperative Security (GCCS), a counter-terrorism think tank which is sponsored by the Australia, Canada, UK and US governments. Alexander Downer’s former Chief of Staff while at the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade now works for the Global Center. Mifsud was also due to meet with Australian private intelligence figures in Adelaide in March 2016. So. Australia is certainly a major focus for the investigation.” [Emphasis Added]

    Below, former FBI Deputy General Counsel Lisa Osofsky is pictured at a London Centre for International Law Practice event. Osofsky also served as the Money Laundering Reporting Officer with Goldman Sachs International. Since 2018, she has served as the Director of the UK’s Serious Fraud Office (SFO).

    Lisa Osofsky, pictured at an LCILP event. Image via Chris Blackburn, Twitter

    An Embarrassment For John Brennan?

    Disobedient Media previously reported that Robert Hannigan, then head of British spy agency GCHQ, flew to Washington DC to share ‘director-to-director’ level intelligence with then-CIA Chief John Brennan in the summer of 2016. This writer noted that “The Guardian reported Hannigan’s announcement that he would step down from his leadership position with the agency just three days after the inauguration of President Trump, on 23 January 2017. Jane Mayer, in her profile of Christopher Steele published in the New Yorker, also noted that Hannigan had flown to Washington D.C. to personally brief the then-CIA Director John Brennan on alleged communications between the Trump campaign and Moscow. What is so curious about this briefing “deemed so sensitive it was handled at director-level” is why Hannigan was talking director-to-director to the CIA and not Mike Rogers at the NSA, GCHQ’s Five Eyes intelligence-sharing partner.”

    Blackburn told Disobedient Media:

    “Former Congressman Trey Gowdy, who has seen most of the information gathered by Congress from the intelligence community concerning the Russia investigation, said that if President Trump were to declassify files and present the truth to the American public, it would “embarrass John Brennan.” I think that is pretty concrete for me, but it’s not definitive. I know the polarization and spin in Washington has become perverse, but that statement is pretty specific for me. If Brennan is involved, it is most probably through Papadopoulos who sparked off the ‘official’ investigation at the FBI. He also made sure the Steele dossier was spread through the US government.”

    Blackburn added: “Chris Steele was also working on FIFA projects, and a source has told me that he was working to investigate the Russian and Qatari World Cup bids. The London Centre of International Law Practice has been working with Majed Garoub, the former Saudi legal representative of FIFA, the world governing body for soccer. He’s also been working against the Qatari bid. Steele likes to get paid twice for his investigations.”

    “Mifsud has also been associated with Prince Turki the former Saudi intelligence chief, Mifsud and the London Academy of Diplomacy used to train Saudi diplomats and intelligence figures while Turki was the Saudi Ambassador to London. Turki is a close friend of Bill Clinton and John Brennan. Nawaf Obaid was also courting Mifsud and tried to get him a cushy job working with CNN’s Freedom Project at Link Campus in Rome. He also knows John Brennan. Intelligence agencies like to give out professional gifts like this plum academic position for completing missions. In the US, it is widely known that intelligence agencies gift the children of assets to get them into prestigious Ivy League schools.”

    At minimum, we can surmise that Mifsud was not a Russian agent, but was an asset of Western intelligence agencies. We are left with the impression that the Mifsud saga served as a ploy, whether he participated knowingly or not. It seems reasonable to conclude that the gambit was initially developed with participation of John Brennan and UK intelligence. Following this, Mueller inherited and developed the Mifsud narrative thread into the collusion soap opera we know today.

    Ultimately, we are faced with the reality that British and US interests worked together to fabricate a collusion scandal to subvert a US Presidency, and in doing so, intentionally raised tensions between the West and a nuclear-armed power.

  • Opioids More Likely To Kill Americans Than Car Crashes

    The National Safety Council has reported that Americans are now more likely to die from an opioid overdose than car crashes for the first time.

    As Statista’s Niall McCarthy notes, the overall rate of drug overdose deaths in the U.S. increased by 9.6 percent between 2016 and 2017 with the death rate from fentanyl skyrocketing 45 percent. The U.S. had experienced a shocking 70,000 overdose deaths by late 2018 and unsurprisngly, the National Safety Council says that there is an increased risk of dying due to the crisis.

    As of 2017, someone living in the U.S: had a 1 in 96 chance of dying from a drug overdose while the probability of dying in a car crash was 1 in 103. The most likely cause of death is still heart disease with lifetime odds of 1 in 6 while overdoses comes fifth overall.

    Infographic: Opioids More Likely To Kill Americans Than Car Crashes  | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    After a spate of mass shootings, the chances of dying due to gun assault stands at 1 in 285, greater than perishing in a motorcycle accident, drowning or choking to death. Dying in a railway accident remains highly unlikely with the chances of that happening 1 in 243,765. Dying from a lightning strike is actually more likely at 1 in 218,106.

  • Is America About To Officially Dump Pakistan As An "Ally"?

    Authored by Andrew Korybko via Oriental Review,

    Republican Congressman Andy Biggs just put forth House Resolution 73 seeking to remove Pakistan’s designation as a “major non-NATO ally”, which would eliminate its privileged military cooperation with the US that’s already been put under strain over the past year since Trump decided to suspend various sorts of aid to the country and decried it for supposedly not doing enough to fight terrorism. Biggs wants to make any reclassification of Pakistan as a “major non-NATO ally” contingent on the President proving to Congress that the country is fighting the so-called “Haqqani Network” that’s bedeviled the US for years, suggesting that this initiative might have something to do with once again scapegoating Pakistan for the latest setback to the incipient US-Taliban peace process.

    In addition, the move itself is highly symbolic because it comes over two years after the US designated Pakistan’s rival India as its first-ever “Major Defense Partner” after entering into a military-strategic partnership with the country to tacitly “contain” China. It’s very likely that the US might be toying with the idea of replacing Pakistan with India as its newest “major non-NATO ally”, though that would provocatively push Pakistan even closer to the US’ Russian and Chinese rivals, something that could have serious implications for Afghanistan if Islamabad refuses to broker any more talks between Washington and the Taliban, for example. Altogether, however, the suggestion to strip Pakistan of its “major non-NATO ally” designation is predicable because the US was never Pakistan’s “ally” to begin with.

    It never mattered how much Pakistan assisted the US with its War on Terror, nor how many tens of thousands of Pakistanis died as the country’s military fought its own version of this conflict on its home soil, the US always condescendingly treated Pakistan as a “junior partner” and criticized it to “do more”. Over the past couple of years, Pakistan finally decided to say “no more” and began pursuing an independent foreign policy that strives to achieve a “balance” between the world’s Great Powers instead of indefinitely perpetuating its erstwhile strategic dependence on a single one like the US, which has actually revolutionized regional and global affairs by virtue of the geostrategic importance of the CPEC megaproject.

    NATO trucks crossing Pakistan’s border

    For as much as some in the US’ permanent military, intelligence, and diplomatic bureaucracies (or “deep state”) might want to “punish” Pakistan for this through various means such as symbolically stripping away its “major non-NATO ally” status, others also understand that many Pakistanis would be happy to see their faux “alliance” with the US finally end and know that their country could potentially make matters difficult for the US in Afghanistan, which is why it remains to be seen whether this measure will pass into law. Even so, it nevertheless sends a very strong signal to Islamabad that some in Washington harbor very hostile intentions against their country and don’t appreciate its many sacrifices that were made on their behalf in the War on Terror.

  • "Drink Good Wine, Hide Cash": $364 Million Ponzi Scheme Mastermind Told Wife To Hide Assets

    Federal officials announced in September the indictment and arrest of a Baltimore man, involved in the most massive Ponzi scheme ever in the Baltimore–Washington metropolitan area.

    With his accounts frozen, Kevin B. Merrill, the mastermind behind the fraud, allegedly wrote a prison note to his wife telling her to hide their assets.

    The note was found in Merrill’s sock by prison guards as he faces charges of defrauding investors of $364 million.

    “Have your dad take my golf clubs,” he allegedly wrote. “Hide cash or checks … drink good wine in sub zero’s, replace with sh– wine in basement.”

    “F— them. They have taken enough! Get stuff out,” he allegedly wrote.

    Federal prosecutors revealed the note in criminal charges filed last month against Amanda Merrill, the young wife of the mastermind fraudster. She was charged with conspiracy, obstruction, disobeying a court order and removing property to prevent its seizure.

    US Attorney Robert Hur said Merrill swindled family offices and investors around the country. He called it the largest Ponzi scheme in Maryland’s history.

    Federal agents arrested Merrill in September and raided his multi-million dollar home in Ruxton-Riderwood, Maryland.

    He and his business partner, Jay Ledford, 54, of Texas, have been indicted on federal charges of wire fraud, identity theft, and money laundering.

    Investors in the scheme believed they were buying “consumer debt portfolios,” tranches of credit card debt, car loans, and student loans. Instead, Merrill shifted the money from new investors to old investors, prosecutors say.

    Merrill spent investors’ money on dozens of luxury cars, including a million dollar Bugatti Veyron. Prosecutors say he spent $37,500 on designer watches and jewelry, $50,000 on private flights and $100,000 at Las Vegas casinos. They even say he decorated his mansions with the fine art of the mustached Monopoly character Rich Uncle Pennybags.

    A federal judge issued a restraining order stopping Merrill and Ledford from selling their assets. 

    Federal officials have filed documents with the courts to instruct Sotheby’s International Realty to sell a dozen mansions the men owned in Maryland, Florida, Texas and Nevada, collectively worth $20 million or more.

    Officials are also ready to sell off the fleet of 34 exotic cars, motorcycles and boats.

    Both individuals have pleaded not guilty. Their trials have not yet been scheduled.

  • The Fetishization Of The Corporate Media

    Authored by CJ Hopkins via The Unz Review,

    So the corporate media have gone and done it again. As they have, repeatedly, for the last two and half years, they shook the earth with a “bombshell” story proving beyond any reasonable doubt that Donald Trump colluded with the Russians to steal the presidency from Hillary Clinton, or at least committed an impeachable felony in connection with something to do with the Russians, or Ukrainians, or other Slavic persons … which story turned out to be inaccurate, or not entirely accurate, or a bunch of horseshit.

    This time it was BuzzFeed’s Jason Leopold, “a reporter with a checkered past” (i.e., a history of inventing his sources) who broke the “bombshell” Russiagate story that turned out to be a bunch of horseshit. Leopold, and his colleague Anthony Cormier, reported that Trump had directed his attorney, Michael Cohen, to lie to Congress about plans to construct a Trump Tower in Moscow, thus suborning perjury and obstructing justice. Their sources for this “bombshell” story were allegedly “two federal law enforcement officials involved in an investigation of the matter.”

    Approximately twenty-four hours later, Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s office (i.e., the office “involved in an investigation of the matter”) stated that the BuzzFeed story was “not accurate,” which is a legal term meaning “a bunch of horseshit.” BuzzFeed is standing by its story, and is working to determine what, exactly, Mueller’s office meant by “not accurate.” Ben Smith, BuzzFeed’s Editor-in-Chief, has called on Mueller “to make clear what he’s disputing.”

    Liberals and other Trump-obsessives have joined in the effort to interpret the Special Counsel’s office’s cryptic utterance. French hermeneuticists have been reportedly called in to deconstruct the meaning of “accurate.” Professional Twitter semioticians are explaining that “not accurate” doesn’t mean “wrong,” but, rather, refers to something that is “accurate,” but which the user of the word doesn’t want to disclose publicly, or that legal terms don’t mean what they mean … or something more or less along those lines.

    Glenn Greenwald, in August 2018, reporting on another “bombshell” story that turned out to be a bunch of horseshit, compiled a partial list of Russiagate stories that the corporate media had published and promoted over the course of the previous eighteen months which turned out to be a bunch of horseshit (i.e., the stories did, not Greenwald’s list). In the wake of this latest horseshit story, Greenwald revised and renamed this list “The 10 Worst, Most Embarrassing U.S. Media Failures on the Trump/Russia Story.

    But Greenwald’s list is just a small sample of the Russiagate stories that have turned out to be horseshit. For the record, here are several more:

    My personal favorite remains the one about how Hillary Clinton may have been poisoned by Putinist operatives back in 2016. And then there’s the pot-smoking, prostitute-banging, incompetent Novichok perfume assassins, the African American-brainwashing memes, the Putin-orchestrated Yellow Vest rebellion, the brain-eating Russian-Cubano crickets, and various other bunches of horseshit.

    I am using the terms “horseshit” and “a bunch of horseshit” (as opposed to terms like “failures” and “errors”), not just to be gratuitously vulgar, but, also, to try to make a point. One is not supposed to use these terms in connection with “serious,” “respected” news outlets. Which is why journalists like Greenwald and Aaron Maté (who have extensively reported on the corporate media’s ongoing production and dissemination of horseshit) do not use such terms in the course of their reporting, and instead use less inflammatory terms like “false,” “inaccurate,” “mistake,” and “error.” Principled journalists like Greenwald and Maté are constrained by (a) their journalistic ethics, (b) their integrity, and (c) their belief in the idea of a “free and independent press,” which is one of the pillars of Western democracy.

    Being neither a respected journalist nor a believer in the existence of an “independent press,” I am under no such constraints. Because I’m not trying to get or keep a job, or maintain a “respectable” reputation, I’m free to call a spade a spade and a bunch of horseshit a bunch of horseshit. I am also free to describe “journalists” like Leopold, Luke HardingCraig TimbergFranklin Foer, and many of their corporate media colleagues (not to mention TV clowns like Rachel Maddow) as the liars and rank propagandists they are. I don’t need to pretend their fabricated stories are simply the result of “shoddy journalism,” or “over-reliance on official sources,” or any other type of “error” or “failure.” These people know exactly what they are doing, and are being extremely well paid to do it. They went to school to learn how to do it. Then they butt-sucked and back-stabbed their way up the ladder of establishment power to be able to do it.

    Yes, of course, there are still principled journalists working for the corporate media, but they are doing so by walking a very fine line. No one has to tell them where it is. Every professional journalist knows precisely where it is, and what it is there for. Though they are permitted to walk right up to it, occasionally (to keep them from feeling like abject whores), one step over it and they will be cast into the Outer Darkness of the Blogosphere and excommunicated from the Church of Respectable Journalism. If you don’t believe me, just ask Seymour Hersh, or John Pilger, or any other journalistic heretic.

    If Russiagate serves no other useful purpose, it is at least exposing the corporate media as the propaganda factories that they are. Given the amount of obviously fabricated horseshit they have disseminated during the last two years, you’d have to be a total moron or a diehard neoliberal cultist not to recognize the function they perform within the global capitalist ruling establishment (which is essentially no different than the function the establishment media perform in any other society, namely, to disseminate, maintain, and reify the official narrative of its ruling classes).

    Sadly, there’s no shortage of morons and cultists. I don’t blame the morons, because … well, they’re morons. The cultists are another species entirely. These are people who, no matter how often the corporate media feed them another “explosive,” “bombshell” Russiagate story that turns out to be a bunch of horseshit, will defend the concept of the “independent media” like head-shaven, bug-eyed Manson followers. Confront them with facts contradicting their beliefs and they close their eyes and start chanting and humming and repetitiously babbling banishing spells. The notion that the Western corporate media may serve the interests of the ruling establishment (just like the media in every other society serve that society’s ruling classes) is unimaginable and tantamount to heresy.

    This fetishization of “the independent press” is a phenomenon unique to Western capitalism. Basically, it’s a childish fairy tale, like believing that Santa Claus is an actual person or that voting in elections in a corporate oligarchy has anything to do with actual democracy. Think about it dispassionately for a minute. Why would any ruling establishment permit a genuinely “independent” press to disseminate ideas and information willy-nilly throughout society? If it did, it wouldn’t last very long.

    Most people understand this intuitively, which is why the corporate media relentlessly repeat the mantra-like phrase, “free and independent press,” over, and over, and over again. Seriously, switch on NPR, or have a look at The Guardian or the Washington Post, or any of the other corporate media repeatedly reminding you how “independent,” “free” and “democratic” they are. It’s essentially Neuro-linguistic programming.

    So let’s not be shocked when the corporate media continue to bombard us with “bombshell” stories about Trump and Russia that turn out to be horseshit. Personally, I welcome these stories. The more corporate media horseshit the better! Who knows, if they dish out enough blatant horseshit, more people might lose their “trust in the media,” and begin to investigate matters themselves. I know, that makes me a Nazi, right? Or at least a Russian propagandist? I mean, encouraging folks to distrust the corporate media? Isn’t there some kind of law against that? Or have they not quite gotten around to that yet?

  • Eric Peters: "How Will We Address The Inequality We Created?"

    Submitted by Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

    Spending: The Federal gov’t will spend $4.4trln in 2019 (21% of our $21trln GDP). 62% of our $4.4trln spending is on “mandatory” programs (Social Security $1,046bln, Medicare $625bln, Medicaid $412bln, plus income support, child tax credits, child nutrition, student loans, etc). 30% of spending is “discretionary” (Defense $886bln, Veterans $83bln, Health/Human Services $70bln, Education $60bln, Homeland Security $53bln, State Dept $40bln, HUD $30bln, Energy Dept $30bln, $266bln in other agencies). The remaining 8% of spending ($363bln) pays interest.

    Revenue: The Federal gov’t will collect $3.4trln in 2019 (16% of our $21trln GDP). 49% of that $3.4trln in revenue will be collected via income taxes ($1.6trln). 36% is via Social Security tax, Medicare tax, and unemployment insurance tax ($1.2trln). Corporations pay 7% of gov’t revenue ($225bln). Customs/excise taxes account for 3%. The final 5% comes from the Federal Reserve, estate taxes and miscellaneous sources. The $3.4trln the gov’t collects falls short of the $4.4trln that it will spend in 2019, so that $1trln balance is our deficit – which is roughly 5% of GDP.

    Pendulums: Corporate taxes were introduced in 1909. They were 1% and rose until 1926 when they hit 13.5%. They were cut to 11% into the 1929 bubble, but then rose for a couple decades to pay for WWII and the Korean War, hitting a high of 52.8% in 1968 to fund the Great Society (programs to eliminate poverty and racial injustice) and Vietnam War. Those were years of peak equality in America. Ever since, corporate tax rates have bumped lower, even as profit margins have been increasing. Nixon cut them to 48%, Carter 46%, Reagan 34%, and now Trump 21%.

    Historically: The 16% of GDP the Federal gov’t will collect in taxes in 2019 is well below the 19% level that tends to be America’s average. In 2007, before the Great Recession, corporations paid $395bln in taxes on profits of $1.5trln (26.3% tax rate). In 2015, corporations paid $390bln in taxes on profits of $2.1trln (18.5% tax rate). After the recent tax cuts, that effective tax rate will fall further. The long-term US budget deficit is 3%. The fact that we’re now running a 5% deficit at a time of above trend growth and full employment is historically unprecedented.

    The Green New Deal: The Great Society was a set of US domestic programs launched by Lyndon Johnson in 1964–65. The goal was the total elimination of poverty and racial injustice. New major spending programs that addressed education, medical care, urban problems, rural poverty, and transportation were launched. The Great Society in scope and sweep resembled the New Deal domestic agenda of Franklin D. Roosevelt in the early 1930s. Today’s Green New Deal is an emerging set of initiatives to remedy economic inequality and climate change.

    Infinity and Beyond: Republican control of the Presidency, House and Senate led to trillion-dollar deficits, forecasted to grow inexorably. With interest rates close to inflation rates, and the dollar strong, issuing new debt has been easy. So let’s call that modern-day fiscal conservatism. The Green New Deal will be funded by MMT (Modern Monetary Theory), which holds that the gov’t can spend money by simply creating it, constrained only by the fact that if politicians spend too much money, they’ll use all the economy’s productive capacity and spark inflation.

    * * *

    Anecdote: “The pendulum has returned to its starting point,” said the CIO. “We had a massively regulated, terribly inefficient economy,” he continued. “Carter started deregulating. Then Reagan. They got government out of the rule-making business.” Efficiency surged. “Deregulation made the market the final arbiter of which businesses succeeded and failed.” But as lobbyists swarmed the swamp, antitrust legislation lifted like a fog. Natural economic forces exerted themselves.

    “Now the economy is dominated by oligopolistic markets. Tech is the one major exception.” Tech is still an industry where new business models leap ahead, killing competitors. “You and I couldn’t start an airline today. The industry has so consolidated that only a few remain.” The top four US airlines have 70% market share. The top four wireless networks have 98.5% market share. “And monetary policy amplifies the problem.” Yesteryear’s economic enemy was government regulation, today’s is a combination of oligopolistic markets with unlimited access to cheap capital.

    “We’ve come full circle. Before Carter/Reagan you had government-endorsed rent seeking via regulation. Now you have government-granted rent seeking via anti-trust. And rent seeking is awful for an economy.” Productivity growth remains inexplicably anemic. “We’re now tolerating low-productivity, inefficient companies with record high profit margins.”

    Politicians granted oligopolistic markets to capital owners, cut interest rates to boost their asset values, then cut corporate taxes. “I’m an owner of capital. But how much better are we going to make it for God’s sake?” he asked. “When I grew up Democrats were the protectors of the post-war regulation that handcuffed America’s entrepreneurial zeal. Republicans unshackled us. Now, they’re the status quo.” The pendulum swung too far.

    “I may not agree with the details of the solutions I hear, but we’re beginning to ask the right questions. How will we address the inequality we created? How will we provide and pay for healthcare? Education?”

  • Feds Prepare To Bail Out "Vast Majority" Of 90,000 Sears Pensions

    The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp (PBGC) said in a Friday press release that it believes Sears Holdings Corp’s “continuation of the plans is no longer possible” following the Company’s October bankruptcy, after it was revealed in a Friday filing that Chairman Eddie Lampert’s $5.2 billion rescue package does not include pension plans

    PBGC, a government agency, covers individuals’ pensions in the event a pension plan shuts down without sufficient funding to meet its obligations. The Sears pension system, meanwhile, is underfunded to the tune of approximately $1.4 billion, which the agency could attempt to recover through the bankruptcy, according to MSN.

    It should be noted that the PBGC is not supported by general tax revenues, rather, funding comes from four sources; insurance premiums paid by sponsors of defined benefit pension plans; assets held within the pension that PBGC takes control of; recoveries of unfunded pension liabilities from the bankruptcy estates of plan sponsors, and investment income. Sears entered into a five-year protection plan with the PBGC in 2016. 

    Ron Olbrysh, chairman of the National Association of Retired Sears Employees, said the guarantee means retirees aren’t worried about losing pensions, but they do have concerns about other benefits.

    The pensions are secure through Sears or through the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp.,” he said. “The big impact if Sears does liquidate is that retirees will lose life insurance.

    The PBGC said it expects its guarantee will cover the “vast majority” of pension benefits earned under Sears’ plans. Retirees who have questions about what the takeover would mean for their pensions can visit www.pbgc.gov/Sears-QA. -MSN

    Until Sears agrees to terminate the pensions or the court orders them to do so, the Hoffman Estates-based retail giant will remain responsible for the plans, which the agency is looking to assume control of as of January 31. 

    Lampert – then the company’s CEO, wrote in a September blog post that the company’s pension obligations had become a major sticking point. 

    In addition to the very difficult retail environment, Sears has also been significantly impacted by its long-term pension obligations. In the last five years, we contributed almost $2 billion, and since 2005 we have contributed over $4.5 billion, to fund our Pension Plans.

    The reality is that, while we strongly believe in our vision and our strategy for the Company, we also have had to address the pressures that result from the unsatisfactory operating performance as well as the ongoing burden of our legacy pension liabilities.Eddie Lampert

    Sears confirmed on Thursday that Lampert’s $5.2 billion rescue package had been accepted, preserving 45,000 jobs – but not the roughly 90,000 pensions the company is on the hook for. Lampert’s offer will still require approval from US Bankruptcy Court in the Southern District of New York – while the company’s creditors are already beginning to complain. 

  • BuzzFeed CEO Spoofed Prominent Gun Rights Activist To Spread Disinformation

    Long before BuzzFeed was publishing unverified dossiers and anti-Trump claims refuted by Robert Mueller, founder and CEO Jonah Peretti created a fake website and email address in the name of prominent gun rights advocate John Lott in order to spread disinformation.

    Peretti, then-director at Brooklyn-based technology nonprofit Eyebeam, used Lott’s name in 2003 to trick people into thinking that Lott had changed his mind on a key piece of gun-rights legislation that protected gun makers from abusive lawsuits designed to put them out of business. 

    I was already relatively well-known in 2003 to those who care about the gun control debate because of my book “More Guns, Less Crime.” Peretti sent emails under my name to convince people that I had changed my mind and come out against the Act.  The emails then urged people to ask their congressmen and Senators to oppose the bill. –John Lott via Fox News

    Lott explains Peretti’s deception in a Monday Op-Ed which you can read below. 

    ***

    John Lott Via Fox News 

    BuzzFeed, a popular “news” website, has once again been shamed for publishing fake allegations against Donald Trump. BuzzFeed’s anonymously sourced report claimed that President Trump ordered his former lawyer, Michael Cohen, to lie to Congress about a proposed business deal in Moscow. Supposedly, two unnamed federal law enforcement officials claimed that Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s office had the goods. They were purported to have collected emails, texts, and testimony proving the explosive claim.

    The story dominated the news on Friday, with Democrats calling for Trump to be impeached. MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” opened with the announcement that this revelation was “a big one.” CNN’s “New Day” host John Berman claimed the disclosure was so dramatic he almost spilled his coffee.

    But by late Friday, Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s office issued a very rare rebuke saying that BuzzFeed’s account was “not accurate.” This was hardly BuzzFeed’s first embarrassment. As Trump reminded people, “it was BuzzFeed that released the totally discredited ‘Dossier,’ paid for by Crooked Hillary Clinton and the Democrats . . .”

    BuzzFeed’s culture of fake news starts at the top with founder and CEO Jonah Peretti, who has a history of knowingly spreading false information. He has used fraudulent websites and email accounts to pose as people he wished to defame. I was one of his victims.

    Peretti’s first victim was MBA student Jeff Goldblatt, who had set up a dating service called the Rejection Hotline. This was inadvertently in competition with Peretti’s newly created rejectionline.com. Peretti’s sister and co-founder, Chelsea, contacted Goldblatt to gain information on his business. She “interviewed” him, under the false identity of New York-based reporter Vanessa Holmes.

    Then Jonah Peretti set up the website JeffGoldblatt.com, under the pretense that it was Goldblatt’s personal website. Peretti sent out emails from me@JeffGoldblatt.com that, according to Goldblatt, “contained multiple lies about me and portrayed me as an arrogant jerk who was bragging about how I stole the idea of the New York City Rejection Line.”

    Goldblatt contacted me after Peretti did the same thing to me in 2003.  In my case, Peretti set up AskJohnLott.org and used the email address john@AskJohnLott.org. Peretti’s expropriation of my name wasn’t for financial gain, but to support gun control.

    Pretending to be me, Peretti sent out hundreds of thousands of emails lobbying against the proposed “Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act.” This bill, which was being debated at the time (it ultimately passed in 2005), protected gun makers from abusive lawsuits that were solely designed to put them out of business with overwhelming legal fees. Peretti even purchased advertising for his fake website on Google, and the advertising promoting “my“ appeared at the very beginning of any search results on my name.

    I was already relatively well-known in 2003 to those who care about the gun control debate because of my book “More Guns, Less Crime.” Peretti sent emails under my name to convince people that I had changed my mind and come out against the Act.  The emails then urged people to ask their congressmen and Senators to oppose the bill.

    A number of the recipients were people I knew, and some wrote back using the John@AskJohnLott.org email address and questioned why I would have changed my mind. But Peretti continued the charade of being me in multiple email chains.

    I first learned about the website from James K. Glassman, a former Washington Post columnist, who later served as U.S. Under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy. He shared the email exchange with me that he had with Peretti’s fake John Lott.

    Peretti also used my name and picture to advise people on how to violate gun control laws. Soon, I received hundreds of angry phone calls from people who were upset that I was supposedly advising them to break the law.

    My emails to john@AskJohnLott.org asking who was behind the effort were ignored. The website’s registration didn’t help, as it was supposedly registered to me.

    I spent money to find out who was behind these efforts.  When I contacted Peretti, he denied any involvement.  After I hired lawyers, Peretti finally included a disclaimer on the website, stating that he intended to parody me. But he still refused to take down the website down or stop sending emails.

    Goldblatt didn’t have the money for a legal battle, so I included him in my case.

    After a year-and-a-half, we finally reach a legal settlement. Peretti, who worked for a company called Eyebeam, publicly acknowledged: “The AskJohnLott.org site was created by The Eyebeam Atelier, Inc. This site was never associated, endorsed or otherwise affiliated with John R. Lott, Jr. E-mail sent from the AskJohnLott.org domain that was identified as coming from Lott was also never associated, endorsed or otherwise affiliated with John R. Lott, Jr. Eyebeam deeply regrets any confusion and offers a formal apology to John R. Lott, Jr. The terms of the settlement are confidential.”

    Peretti also apologized to Goldblatt and took down JeffGoldblatt.com. I received an undisclosed monetary settlement.

    People are again asking how BuzzFeed could possibly publish such “fake” news against Trump. They need look no further than BuzzFeed’s CEO and founder Jonah Peretti.

    John R. Lott, Jr. is a columnist for FoxNews.com. He is an economist and was formerly chief economist at the United States Sentencing Commission. Lott is also a leading expert on guns and op-eds on that issue are done in conjunction with the Crime Prevention Research Center. He is the author of nine books including “More Guns, Less Crime.” His latest book is “The War on Guns: Arming Yourself Against Gun Control Lies (August 1, 2016). Follow him on Twitter @johnrlottjr.

  • Watch: Nomura's McElligott Dishes On China's Slowdown, His CTA Model & Why Traders Should Fear The Steepener

    In the years after the financial crisis, as central banks engineered a blissfully uninterrupted rally in risk assets, investors could easily afford to remain ignorant of the growing influence of systematic, trend-following strategies that have come to dominate price dynamics in global equity markets.

    But, as evidence by the sudden reintroduction of two-way equity market volatility beginning with the ‘Shocktober’ selloff and continuing through the historic pre-Christmas selloff, those days are over. And as investors from Leon Cooperman on down to aging workers plunking their retirement savings in SPY struggle to understand the nuances of the new investing paradigm, one equity derivatives strategist has emerged as the market’s eerily prophetic guiding light. That man is Nomura’s Charlie McElligott, and his CTA model that tracks one of the most influential class of systematic traders.

    Mce

    As we have assiduously documented in these pages, as other strategists were left slackjawed by the violent downturn in US equities and the bottom falling out of the formerly market-leading tech stocks, McElligott successfully lined up the dominoes of the selloff, leading him to make a series of eerily accurate calls about the duration of the selloff and – even more importantly – the ‘bear market rally’ that has endured for the past three weeks.

    Fortunately for investors who don’t have access to his daily market notes, McElligott laid out his views on everything from the implications of the yield curve on equity markets to the risk that a slowing Chinese economy to the mechanics undergirding his CTA model in an epic, hour-long interview with MacroVoices (readers can listen to the full interview below) that is reminiscent of the final scene from the Godfather:

    Here’s a breakdown of the topics discussed:

    • China Trade Collapse
    • Update on China Credit Impulse
    • PBoC Liquidity Operations
    • Bear market rally or continuation of bull market?
    • Fading the Fed’s economic optimism
    • Sequencing that could cause a force in on the equity markets
    • CTA Model Positioning across asset classes
    • Positioning in risk parity funds
    • Purge in equity fund flows in Q4 2018
    • Fear the steepener

    True to form, the McElligott interview was accompanied by a chart book where the Nomura strategist – whose calls elicited blowback from strategists at other banks (and even from within Nomura itself) over whether systematic funds were truly to blame for the selloff – offered more support for his calls.

    Instead of offering a detailed breakdown of topic explored by McElligott and Townsend during the interview, we’re going to break out a few highlights (and their attendant charts), separated by topic.

    Weakening Chinese Data

    Townsend: Why don’t we jump into your chart book and talk about China? What is driving the situation, and how China is going to play into market action as this whole trade talk thing gets resolved in the next several weeks or months?

    McElligott: I appreciate the opportunity to be on again and speak with you.

    I had a great time last time. And it expanded some of the folks that I interact with. So thank you for that. I think, as we look to base this conversation out of the impulse that’s originating out of China, and, last time we spoke, we did touch on that idea of the Chinese credit impulse – that credit impulse, of course, with regards to the government’s forcing, pushing on a string of credit out through social financing, through new loan growth, through efforts to stimulate money supply, that has been the “past is prologue” playbook for Chinese responses to liquidity tightening in economic slowdown. I think what the update is since maybe we last spoke, with regards to the continued degradation of the Chinese economy, has been twofold frankly. You’re dealing with a situation where policies have been very focused on preventing financial crisis and a credit freeze. Other policies, they’re trying to support growth, but not enough to offset some of the negatives that are developing.

    And it’s both domestic demand issue and, from the folks that we have boots on the ground economic contact with there, I don’t think a lot of folks in the West understand the incredible cynicism, skepticism, pessimism view from the ground within China.

    PBOC

    PBOC

    PBOC

    I think that, also, risk markets, global markets, have been anticipating a more holistic BOOM- POW response from Chinese authorities, from the policy setters, from the PBOC, from the Ministry of Finance, more than what the Chinese authorities are able to provide – meaning there is no short-term QE solution, rate-cut solution that would give the market what it wants.

    Instead it’s been these very piecemeal attempts. I think we’ve had now four triple-R cuts since last January. We’ve had a number of value-added tax cuts and corporate income tax cuts. The fact of the matter is – and certainly mandating putting more pressure on local authorities and banks to stimulate that loan growth, that credit impulse – they are now in a really tricky part of their process right now.

    PBOC

    And I think, generally speaking, it was consensus. Folks understood that when you pile on the trade war and the impact that the tariffs are having on Chinese trade that you’re in a situation where, because of the tariffs implementation, there was this potential relief by pulling forward much of the ordering from clients of Chinese counterpart corporations.

    And you did see that to a certain extent – very limited extent – in some of the Q4 monthly data that’s coming out. I think what’s happened in the last couple of days is that – you actually saw in the Chinese trade data yesterday export growth was down 4.4% year over year, which is a negative read on industrial production and employment on GDP.

    And then import growth was down 7.6% year over year, which also speaks to this further domestic demand slowdown. It’s highlighting that we’ve already hit the end of that tariff frontloading effect. So you’re really now dealing in the market – and we’re going to talk on this very tactical, very positioning-driven risk rally that I’ve been making the case for since mid-December.

    But I think now you’re at that point in the market where there is a lot of discomfort in owning this rally, because you are seeing this negative global growth impulse out of China really get picked up in the global data. And our in-house view – Ting Lu, our Chinese economist, has been way more aggressively negative than the rest of the market and continues to be – is that it’s only going to get worse in Q1 and Q2, especially now that that tariff frontloading effect is gone.

    Townsend: Now I want to ask a qualifying question. When you say that it gets worse into Q1, I’m assuming we’re talking about the Chinese economic data getting worse. But I could imagine that translating to more accommodative policy. And, potentially, US markets could be rallying as the US Fed gets a little more accommodative because of what they’re afraid of. So are we necessarily expecting global markets to be worse? Or do you just mean the Chinese economic data gets worse in Q1?

    McElligott: It’s the right question to ask. It’s a critical clarification. We’re absolutely speaking with the Chinese economic data which, in turn, is having this dragging effect globally. We saw the German GDP print yesterday confirm the slowdown fears. It’s, of course, a known thing, right? Germany is the world’s third largest exporter, the largest economy in Europe.

    It’s very much representative of the flu that has originated out of China. I think what this next wave is, with regards to that Q1–Q2 behavior in China, is that you’re now going to see a situation where, instead of this growth deterioration or growth deceleration, it’s now going to become – which has been due to this deleveraging campaign that began two years ago, so it’s self-inflicted – you’re now going to see the credit crunch in H1.

    That’s really where I think you’re going to start seeing the narrowing impact and the smaller response that their economy is getting from these various piecemeal stimulus and easing efforts. They’re smaller, they’re more narrow, they’re less effective than past policy stimulus. Now you’re going to see the payback for the frontloading of exports.

    You’re going to see probably now the property market corrections, certainly in the lower-tier cities, is our house view. And probably more defaults and widening of credit spreads in China. That, ultimately – which you are highlighting specifically here Erik – that is things getting worse to force that much more aggressive policy response from Chinese authorities that ultimately puts us back on track for a global economic pivot off of these H1 2019 lows is what we are anticipating.

    Fear the Steepener

    Townsend: Charlie, I want to skip ahead in the interest of time to Page 20 in the deck because I want to revisit a topic we discussed in your last interview. Where so many people fear an inversion or a flattening of the yield curve, you say we should actually fear the steepening of the curve. What do you mean by that? It seems counterintuitive to a lot of people. What do you mean by it? And maybe talk us through the charts to explain your point.

    McElligott: My long-time message has been that the key here with regards to the hyperventilation on curve inversions – The inversion obviously precipitates the steepening of the curve, but what really matters is that the curve-steepening side of the where-we-are-in-the-cycle indicator is telling us that – I have used the term in a number of my pieces, and maybe even on our last call – that the market has finally sniffed out the slowdown. We’ve figured out that the policy tightening, the normalization, have impacted the real economy, that the lagging impact of tightening is starting to lead into financing and funding and the costs of capital.

    And it’s causing behavioral shifts with corporate management, CAPEX discussion that we had before, and, ultimately, it’s affecting the actual output in the real economy. So when I say that what matters most is actually the steepening, as the cyclical risk-off signal, that’s exactly what we’ve seen – over the last number of US recessions – is that you don’t need to worry about trying to reverse engineer the timing of the inversion into when does the US recession start, just because there is no historical kind of signal there. It’s incredibly noisy. What does signal – because it’s closer to the real event happening – is that, when you get this steepening, that’s the market picking up the slowdown and confirming the slowdown. The charts on Slide 20 show you the extent of the front end.

    We’re looking at eurodollar spreads. And this shows you the extent by which the markets went pricing out the end of the Fed normalization cycle and pricing in the easing cycle. And at the peak of early January, before the Fed’s pivot (basically), before the Jerome Powell and Richard Clarida double whammy messaging that the markets had forced them to take a knee, we were at a point where we had priced in almost a full cut in the end of 2019. There were times since July of last year that the eurodollar 2020 calendar spread was telling us that the Fed was on the margin looking to cut. That clearly escalated to a full cut over the course of the last couple of months. What was still amazing in that real panicky December and then pre-Powell period in January was that we pulled forward that Fed easing, that Fed cut, from 2020 into the end of 2019. And that just captures the accuracy, frankly, by which the equities markets began pricing in this real recession risk. And that we spoke about in those deeply cyclical sectors.

    So we have since moderated. The dovish Fed pivot has done enough right now to offset the policy error concerns. They are telling us they’re going to be patient, meaning there is no pause probably for the next two – well, let’s say this: There is probably going to be a pause through, at a minimum June.

    And that’s why you’ve seen a modest steepening again in these curves, in these eurodollar short-term curves. What I think is pretty important, though, is to get a little perspective (Slide 21) of the more traditional US Treasury curves and just get a grasp of where we have come on a larger lookback since, say, 2009 over the post-crisis period. You’re looking at 5s 30s, you’re looking at 2s 10s, you’re looking at 2s 30s – and you get a sense for the incredible flattening that has occurred, which has been by design.

    Treasury

    That has been by design because it eases financial conditions, it eases financing costs for corporates to do things that could stimulate growth. That’s what the Fed has been doing with their balance sheet purchases, with their reinvestment plans. That’s what they have been trying to create. Now the market is seeing the impact of the reversal of these policies and we are just now beginning this very nascent steepening.

    […]

    And that is hyper, hyper, hyper-critical because the shape of the yield curve impacts so many things across the asset spectrum. In particular, I’ve always focused on the impacts that this has within the equities space. Things like cyclicals versus defensives, and certainly a real talking point that I’m going to be focusing on (and I focused on it in my note today) in the months ahead – huge impact with regards to this value-versus-growth debate within the US equities space.

    McElligott

    But, yes, the concern, and the trigger, and the more near-term tactical signal is the steepening of the curve. Because that’s telling us the slowdown is here, the slowdown is real. And that, typically, at that point, even though the Fed can have some impact with regards to liquidity provision, as far as softening the impact on the depth of the recession, a slowdown is an inevitability and that’s where we need to watch. Because in prior examples – and that’s what I go over on Slides 22 and 23 – a year before the ultimate risk-off events, you begin seeing the curve steeping begin.

    McE

    And sometimes it’s less than a year. That’s also important to note.

    The CTA Model

    Townsend: Okay, Charlie, with that backdrop in place, let’s go ahead and dive in at Slide 9 in your deck to the CTA model positioning estimates that you’re showing now. What is this graph showing us? And why don’t you walk us through the next couple of charts in the deck here?

    McElligott: So I think really what I wanted to grab there was not simply just in regards to this capture of general risk sentiment, but also, too, capture this idea that the trend has been very much about a slowdown posture. And of course a CTA model is not worrying about a macro output per se. There might be macro overlays, unequivocally. There could be humans that are kind of tilting the behavior to some extent with regards to exposures.

    But, generally speaking, that’s against the point of the quantitative strategy. What this is capturing though, against a backdrop of some other things that I’ll bring up, is that you’ve really seen markets – whether it’s these systematic trend models or a later risk parity or discretionary long-short – pivot into a very risk-off stance. Which is a huge part of the reason that we find ourselves now 270 handles in the S&P off the lows made two weeks ago. What you’re seeing (particularly here, in that top bucket), you see major markets.

    It just goes to some of the primary risk asset and key cross-asset securities that can give you a sense for this much more risk-off positioning. You see the max short in the S&P 500 in Euro Stoxx, in Nikkei, the two G10 FX crosses there, eurodollar, euro/US dollar, and US dollar/yen – obviously, the dollar/yen short – both of those expressions are very risk-off there – short dollar/yen and short euro speak to that similar footing in the FX space. And then that middle bucket is looking at rates. So Treasuries, 10-year Treasuries – and you have a max long. Then you look at crude.

    SPX

    Brent and WTI as global growth, consumption, the global economic engine, are also max short. And then you look at gold – and this is, I believe two days old, this snapshot – but gold at basically 50% long position. You look back to the far right column versus a month ago, that was an incremental short. And you see – again, looking in that month prior, that far right column, one month in parentheses – you see, generally speaking, the escalation of this kind of risk-off positioning over the last month. The next bucket down goes just a little bit more granularity across the global equities bucket. And you see the extent, again, of the short positioning. A lot of max short, negative 100s.

    However – again, as I highlighted, this was a snapshot, I believe, from Monday morning – you do see that Russell 2000 had begun covering. You see that FTSE 100, Hang Seng, ASX, and KOSPI had all covered from that max short position, which was a precursor that told us that we were getting the ball rolling, that this max short bearish positioning had overshot. And then the right side of the screen speaks to the fixed income side of the risk-off positioning. You recall, for almost the entirety of 2018, one of the most crowded trades on the board for sure was bearish fixed income, bearish Treasuries, bearish rates. It was based upon above-trend growth, above-trend inflation, the tailwinds of fiscal stimulus, of the Phillips curve of labor impacting wage inflation. All of these very globally cyclical bullish phenomena.

    Plus the reality of Fed Treasury issuance, where supply – there was going to be this supply shock due to the deficit spend, realities that we touched on earlier – that it was just going to really lean on global fixed income. And by the end of the year – this is always part of my thesis and it goes back to that Chinese credit impulse slide. Once you lose that credit impulse and commodities and inflation expectations and industrial metals and cyclicals versus defensives ratios – those all started coming off because you’re unable to create the demand side into this tightening liquidity backdrop via the Fed’s QT, via China’s deleveraging efforts, via later the ECB slowing their bond purchases and even the BOJ tapering their bond assets. What it ended up doing was create this very real slowdown in the back half of 2018 that got picked up in the very cyclical data, the very cyclical US data as well as global manufacturing data.

    I mean, the JP Morgan global manufacturing PMI index is down nine of the ten months. Those types of things forced people into this much more defensive slowdown posture which was the opposite of the bearish rates, bearish Treasuries trade. It was instead max long Treasuries, max long European government bonds, and max long JGBs, and onward from there.

    That’s Slide 9 for you.

    * * *

    Of course, if McElligott’s model is once again proved correct, the equity bulls who have retaken the market should probably tread lightly: Because the rally we’ve experienced so far this month is only a temporary lull…

    MCE

    …and as McElligott warned in one of his earlier notes, there’s a whole lot of downside risk left.

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Today’s News 21st January 2019

  • "The Goal Is To Automate Us" – Welcome To The Age Of Surveillance Capitalism

    Shoshana Zuboff’s new book is a chilling exposé of the business model that underpins the digital world. Observer tech columnist John Naughton explains the importance of Zuboff’s work and asks the author 10 key questions…

    ‘Technology is the puppet, but surveillance capitalism is the puppet master.’ Photograph: Getty Images

    Via The Guardian,

    We’re living through the most profound transformation in our information environment since Johannes Gutenberg’s invention of printing in circa 1439. And the problem with living through a revolution is that it’s impossible to take the long view of what’s happening. Hindsight is the only exact science in this business, and in that long run we’re all dead. Printing shaped and transformed societies over the next four centuries, but nobody in Mainz (Gutenberg’s home town) in, say, 1495 could have known that his technology would (among other things): fuel the Reformation and undermine the authority of the mighty Catholic church; enable the rise of what we now recognise as modern science; create unheard-of professions and industries; change the shape of our brains; and even recalibrate our conceptions of childhood. And yet printing did all this and more.

    Why choose 1495? Because we’re about the same distance into our revolution, the one kicked off by digital technology and networking. And although it’s now gradually dawning on us that this really is a big deal and that epochal social and economic changes are under way, we’re as clueless about where it’s heading and what’s driving it as the citizens of Mainz were in 1495.

    That’s not for want of trying, mind. Library shelves groan under the weight of books about what digital technology is doing to us and our world. Lots of scholars are thinking, researching and writing about this stuff. But they’re like the blind men trying to describe the elephant in the old fable: everyone has only a partial view, and nobody has the whole picture. So our contemporary state of awareness is – as Manuel Castells, the great scholar of cyberspace once put it – one of “informed bewilderment”.

    Which is why the arrival of Shoshana Zuboff’s new book is such a big event. Many years ago – in 1988, to be precise – as one of the first female professors at Harvard Business School to hold an endowed chair she published a landmark book, The Age of the Smart Machine: The Future of Work and Power, which changed the way we thought about the impact of computerisation on organisations and on work. It provided the most insightful account up to that time of how digital technology was changing the work of both managers and workers. And then Zuboff appeared to go quiet, though she was clearly incubating something bigger. The first hint of what was to come was a pair of startling essays – one in an academic journal in 2015, the other in a German newspaper in 2016. What these revealed was that she had come up with a new lens through which to view what Google, Facebook et al were doing – nothing less than spawning a new variant of capitalism. Those essays promised a more comprehensive expansion of this Big Idea.

    And now it has arrived – the most ambitious attempt yet to paint the bigger picture and to explain how the effects of digitisation that we are now experiencing as individuals and citizens have come about.

    The headline story is that it’s not so much about the nature of digital technology as about a new mutant form of capitalism that has found a way to use tech for its purposes. The name Zuboff has given to the new variant is “surveillance capitalism”. It works by providing free services that billions of people cheerfully use, enabling the providers of those services to monitor the behaviour of those users in astonishing detail – often without their explicit consent.

    “Surveillance capitalism,” she writes, “unilaterally claims human experience as free raw material for translation into behavioural data. Although some of these data are applied to service improvement, the rest are declared as a proprietary behavioural surplus, fed into advanced manufacturing processes known as ‘machine intelligence’, and fabricated into prediction products that anticipate what you will do now, soon, and later. Finally, these prediction products are traded in a new kind of marketplace that I call behavioural futures markets. Surveillance capitalists have grown immensely wealthy from these trading operations, for many companies are willing to lay bets on our future behaviour.”

    While the general modus operandi of Google, Facebook et al has been known and understood (at least by some people) for a while, what has been missing – and what Zuboff provides – is the insight and scholarship to situate them in a wider context. She points out that while most of us think that we are dealing merely with algorithmic inscrutability, in fact what confronts us is the latest phase in capitalism’s long evolution – from the making of products, to mass production, to managerial capitalism, to services, to financial capitalism, and now to the exploitation of behavioural predictions covertly derived from the surveillance of users. In that sense, her vast (660-page) book is a continuation of a tradition that includes Adam Smith, Max Weber, Karl Polanyi and – dare I say it – Karl Marx.

    Viewed from this perspective, the behaviour of the digital giants looks rather different from the roseate hallucinations of Wired magazine. What one sees instead is a colonising ruthlessness of which John D Rockefeller would have been proud. First of all there was the arrogant appropriation of users’ behavioural data – viewed as a free resource, there for the taking. Then the use of patented methods to extract or infer data even when users had explicitly denied permission, followed by the use of technologies that were opaque by design and fostered user ignorance.

    And, of course, there is also the fact that the entire project was conducted in what was effectively lawless – or at any rate law-free – territory. Thus Google decided that it would digitise and store every book ever printed, regardless of copyright issues. Or that it would photograph every street and house on the planet without asking anyone’s permission. Facebook launched its infamous “beacons”, which reported a user’s online activities and published them to others’ news feeds without the knowledge of the user. And so on, in accordance with the disrupter’s mantra that “it is easier to ask for forgiveness than for permission”.

    When the security expert Bruce Schneier wrote that “surveillance is the business model of the internet” he was really only hinting at the reality that Zuboff has now illuminated. The combination of state surveillance and its capitalist counterpart means that digital technology is separating the citizens in all societies into two groups: the watchers (invisible, unknown and unaccountable) and the watched. This has profound consequences for democracy because asymmetry of knowledge translates into asymmetries of power. But whereas most democratic societies have at least some degree of oversight of state surveillance, we currently have almost no regulatory oversight of its privatised counterpart. This is intolerable.

    And it won’t be easy to fix because it requires us to tackle the essence of the problem – the logic of accumulation implicit in surveillance capitalism. That means that self-regulation is a nonstarter.

    “Demanding privacy from surveillance capitalists,” says Zuboff, “or lobbying for an end to commercial surveillance on the internet is like asking old Henry Ford to make each Model T by hand. It’s like asking a giraffe to shorten its neck, or a cow to give up chewing. These demands are existential threats that violate the basic mechanisms of the entity’s survival.”

    The Age of Surveillance Capital is a striking and illuminating book. A fellow reader remarked to me that it reminded him of Thomas Piketty’s magnum opus, Capital in the Twenty-First Century, in that it opens one’s eyes to things we ought to have noticed, but hadn’t. And if we fail to tame the new capitalist mutant rampaging through our societies then we will only have ourselves to blame, for we can no longer plead ignorance.

    Ten questions for Shoshana Zuboff: ‘Larry Page saw that human experience could be Google’s virgin wood’

    John Naughton: At the moment, the world is obsessed with Facebook. But as you tell it, Google was the prime mover.

    Shoshana Zuboff: Surveillance capitalism is a human creation. It lives in history, not in technological inevitability. It was pioneered and elaborated through trial and error at Google in much the same way that the Ford Motor Company discovered the new economics of mass production or General Motors discovered the logic of managerial capitalism.

    Surveillance capitalism was invented around 2001 as the solution to financial emergency in the teeth of the dotcom bust when the fledgling company faced the loss of investor confidence. As investor pressure mounted, Google’s leaders abandoned their declared antipathy toward advertising. Instead they decided to boost ad revenue by using their exclusive access to user data logs (once known as “data exhaust”) in combination with their already substantial analytical capabilities and computational power, to generate predictions of user click-through rates, taken as a signal of an ad’s relevance.

    Operationally this meant that Google would both repurpose its growing cache of behavioural data, now put to work as a behavioural data surplus, and develop methods to aggressively seek new sources of this surplus.

    The company developed new methods of secret surplus capture that could uncover data that users intentionally opted to keep private, as well as to infer extensive personal information that users did not or would not provide. And this surplus would then be analysed for hidden meanings that could predict click-through behaviour. The surplus data became the basis for new predictions markets called targeted advertising.

    Sheryl Sandberg, says Zuboff, played the role of Typhoid Mary, bringing surveillance capitalism from Google to Facebook. Photograph: John Lee for the Guardian

    Here was the origin of surveillance capitalism in an unprecedented and lucrative brew: behavioural surplus, data science, material infrastructure, computational power, algorithmic systems, and automated platforms. As click-through rates skyrocketed, advertising quickly became as important as search. Eventually it became the cornerstone of a new kind of commerce that depended upon online surveillance at scale.

    The success of these new mechanisms only became visible when Google went public in 2004. That’s when it finally revealed that between 2001 and its 2004 IPO, revenues increased by 3,590%.

    JN: So surveillance capitalism started with advertising, but then became more general?

    SZ: Surveillance capitalism is no more limited to advertising than mass production was limited to the fabrication of the Ford Model T. It quickly became the default model for capital accumulation in Silicon Valley, embraced by nearly every startup and app. And it was a Google executive – Sheryl Sandberg – who played the role of Typhoid Mary, bringing surveillance capitalism from Google to Facebook, when she signed on as Mark Zuckerberg’s number two in 2008. By now it’s no longer restricted to individual companies or even to the internet sector. It has spread across a wide range of products, services, and economic sectors, including insurance, retail, healthcare, finance, entertainment, education, transportation, and more, birthing whole new ecosystems of suppliers, producers, customers, market-makers, and market players. Nearly every product or service that begins with the word “smart” or “personalised”, every internet-enabled device, every “digital assistant”, is simply a supply-chain interface for the unobstructed flow of behavioural data on its way to predicting our futures in a surveillance economy.

    JN: In this story of conquest and appropriation, the term “digital natives” takes on a new meaning…

    SZ: Yes, “digital natives” is a tragically ironic phrase. I am fascinated by the structure of colonial conquest, especially the first Spaniards who stumbled into the Caribbean islands. Historians call it the “conquest pattern”, which unfolds in three phases: legalistic measures to provide the invasion with a gloss of justification, a declaration of territorial claims, and the founding of a town to legitimate the declaration. Back then Columbus simply declared the islands as the territory of the Spanish monarchy and the pope.

    The sailors could not have imagined that they were writing the first draft of a pattern that would echo across space and time to a digital 21st century. The first surveillance capitalists also conquered by declaration. They simply declared our private experience to be theirs for the taking, for translation into data for their private ownership and their proprietary knowledge. They relied on misdirection and rhetorical camouflage, with secret declarations that we could neither understand nor contest.

    Google began by unilaterally declaring that the world wide web was its to take for its search engine. Surveillance capitalism originated in a second declaration that claimed our private experience for its revenues that flow from telling and selling our fortunes to other businesses. In both cases, it took without asking. Page [Larry, Google co-founder] foresaw that surplus operations would move beyond the online milieu to the real world, where data on human experience would be free for the taking. As it turns out his vision perfectly reflected the history of capitalism, marked by taking things that live outside the market sphere and declaring their new life as market commodities.

    We were caught off guard by surveillance capitalism because there was no way that we could have imagined its action, any more than the early peoples of the Caribbean could have foreseen the rivers of blood that would flow from their hospitality toward the sailors who appeared out of thin air waving the banner of the Spanish monarchs. Like the Caribbean people, we faced something truly unprecedented.

    Once we searched Google, but now Google searches us. Once we thought of digital services as free, but now surveillance capitalists think of us as free.

    JN: Then there’s the “inevitability” narrative – technological determinism on steroids.

    SZ: In my early fieldwork in the computerising offices and factories of the late 1970s and 80s, I discovered the duality of information technology: its capacity to automate but also to “informate”, which I use to mean to translate things, processes, behaviours, and so forth into information. This duality set information technology apart from earlier generations of technology: information technology produces new knowledge territories by virtue of its informating capability, always turning the world into information. The result is that these new knowledge territories become the subject of political conflict. The first conflict is over the distribution of knowledge: “Who knows?” The second is about authority: “Who decides who knows?” The third is about power: “Who decides who decides who knows?”

    Now the same dilemmas of knowledge, authority and power have surged over the walls of our offices, shops and factories to flood each one of us… and our societies. Surveillance capitalists were the first movers in this new world. They declared their right to know, to decide who knows, and to decide who decides. In this way they have come to dominate what I call “the division of learning in society”, which is now the central organising principle of the 21st-century social order, just as the division of labour was the key organising principle of society in the industrial age.

    JN: So the big story is not really the technology per se but the fact that it has spawned a new variant of capitalism that is enabled by the technology?

    SZ: Larry Page grasped that human experience could be Google’s virgin wood, that it could be extracted at no extra cost online and at very low cost out in the real world. For today’s owners of surveillance capital the experiential realities of bodies, thoughts and feelings are as virgin and blameless as nature’s once-plentiful meadows, rivers, oceans and forests before they fell to the market dynamic. We have no formal control over these processes because we are not essential to the new market action. Instead we are exiles from our own behaviour, denied access to or control over knowledge derived from its dispossession by others for others. Knowledge, authority and power rest with surveillance capital, for which we are merely “human natural resources”. We are the native peoples now whose claims to self-determination have vanished from the maps of our own experience.

    While it is impossible to imagine surveillance capitalism without the digital, it is easy to imagine the digital without surveillance capitalism. The point cannot be emphasised enough: surveillance capitalism is not technology. Digital technologies can take many forms and have many effects, depending upon the social and economic logics that bring them to life. Surveillance capitalism relies on algorithms and sensors, machine intelligence and platforms, but it is not the same as any of those.

    JN: Where does surveillance capitalism go from here?

    SZ: Surveillance capitalism moves from a focus on individual users to a focus on populations, like cities, and eventually on society as a whole. Think of the capital that can be attracted to futures markets in which population predictions evolve to approximate certainty.

    This has been a learning curve for surveillance capitalists, driven by competition over prediction products. First they learned that the more surplus the better the prediction, which led to economies of scale in supply efforts. Then they learned that the more varied the surplus the higher its predictive value. This new drive toward economies of scope sent them from the desktop to mobile, out into the world: your drive, run, shopping, search for a parking space, your blood and face, and always… location, location, location.

    The evolution did not stop there. Ultimately they understood that the most predictive behavioural data comes from what I call “economies of action”, as systems are designed to intervene in the state of play and actually modify behaviour, shaping it toward desired commercial outcomes. We saw the experimental development of this new “means of behavioural modification” in Facebook’s contagion experiments and the Google-incubated augmented reality game Pokémon Go.

    Democracy has slept, while surveillance capitalists amassed unprecedented concentrations of knowledge and power

    – Shoshana Zuboff

    It is no longer enough to automate information flows about us; the goal now is to automate us. These processes are meticulously designed to produce ignorance by circumventing individual awareness and thus eliminate any possibility of self-determination. As one data scientist explained to me, “We can engineer the context around a particular behaviour and force change that way… We are learning how to write the music, and then we let the music make them dance.”

    This power to shape behaviour for others’ profit or power is entirely self-authorising. It has no foundation in democratic or moral legitimacy, as it usurps decision rights and erodes the processes of individual autonomy that are essential to the function of a democratic society. The message here is simple: Once I was mine. Now I am theirs.

    JN: What are the implications for democracy?

    SZ: During the past two decades surveillance capitalists have had a pretty free run, with hardly any interference from laws and regulations. Democracy has slept while surveillance capitalists amassed unprecedented concentrations of knowledge and power. These dangerous asymmetries are institutionalised in their monopolies of data science, their dominance of machine intelligence, which is surveillance capitalism’s “means of production”, their ecosystems of suppliers and customers, their lucrative prediction markets, their ability to shape the behaviour of individuals and populations, their ownership and control of our channels for social participation, and their vast capital reserves. We enter the 21st century marked by this stark inequality in the division of learning: they know more about us than we know about ourselves or than we know about them. These new forms of social inequality are inherently antidemocratic.

    At the same time, surveillance capitalism diverges from the history of market capitalism in key ways, and this has inhibited democracy’s normal response mechanisms. One of these is that surveillance capitalism abandons the organic reciprocities with people that in the past have helped to embed capitalism in society and tether it, however imperfectly, to society’s interests. First, surveillance capitalists no longer rely on people as consumers. Instead, supply and demand orients the surveillance capitalist firm to businesses intent on anticipating the behaviour of populations, groups and individuals. Second, by historical standards the large surveillance capitalists employ relatively few people compared with their unprecedented computational resources. General Motors employed more people during the height of the Great Depression than either Google or Facebook employs at their heights of market capitalisation. Finally, surveillance capitalism depends upon undermining individual self-determination, autonomy and decision rights for the sake of an unobstructed flow of behavioural data to feed markets that are about us but not for us.

    This antidemocratic and anti-egalitarian juggernaut is best described as a market-driven coup from above: an overthrow of the people concealed as the technological Trojan horse of digital technology. On the strength of its annexation of human experience, this coup achieves exclusive concentrations of knowledge and power that sustain privileged influence over the division of learning in society. It is a form of tyranny that feeds on people but is not of the people. Paradoxically, this coup is celebrated as “personalisation”, although it defiles, ignores, overrides, and displaces everything about you and me that is personal.

    ‘The power to shape behaviour for others’ profit or power is entirely self-authorising,’ says Zuboff. ‘It has no foundation in democratic or moral legitimacy.’

    JN: Our societies seem transfixed by all this: we are like rabbits paralysed in the headlights of an oncoming car.

    SZ: Despite surveillance capitalism’s domination of the digital milieu and its illegitimate power to take private experience and to shape human behaviour, most people find it difficult to withdraw, and many ponder if it is even possible. This does not mean, however, that we are foolish, lazy, or hapless. On the contrary, in my book I explore numerous reasons that explain how surveillance capitalists got away with creating the strategies that keep us paralysed. These include the historical, political and economic conditions that allowed them to succeed. And we’ve already discussed some of the other key reasons, including the nature of the unprecedented, conquest by declaration. Other significant reasons are the need for inclusion, identification with tech leaders and their projects, social persuasion dynamics, and a sense of inevitability, helplessness and resignation.

    We are trapped in an involuntary merger of personal necessity and economic extraction, as the same channels that we rely upon for daily logistics, social interaction, work, education, healthcare, access to products and services, and much more, now double as supply chain operations for surveillance capitalism’s surplus flows. The result is that the choice mechanisms we have traditionally associated with the private realm are eroded or vitiated. There can be no exit from processes that are intentionally designed to bypass individual awareness and produce ignorance, especially when these are the very same processes upon which we must depend for effective daily life. So our participation is best explained in terms of necessity, dependency, the foreclosure of alternatives, and enforced ignorance.

    JN: Doesn’t all this mean that regulation that just focuses on the technology is misguided and doomed to fail? What should we be doing to get a grip on this before it’s too late?

    SZ: The tech leaders desperately want us to believe that technology is the inevitable force here, and their hands are tied. But there is a rich history of digital applications before surveillance capitalism that really were empowering and consistent with democratic values. Technology is the puppet, but surveillance capitalism is the puppet master.

    Surveillance capitalism is a human-made phenomenon and it is in the realm of politics that it must be confronted. The resources of our democratic institutions must be mobilised, including our elected officials. GDPR [a recent EU law on data protection and privacy for all individuals within the EU] is a good start, and time will tell if we can build on that sufficiently to help found and enforce a new paradigm of information capitalism. Our societies have tamed the dangerous excesses of raw capitalism before, and we must do it again.

    While there is no simple five-year action plan, much as we yearn for that, there are some things we know. Despite existing economic, legal and collective-action models such as antitrust, privacy laws and trade unions, surveillance capitalism has had a relatively unimpeded two decades to root and flourish. We need new paradigms born of a close understanding of surveillance capitalism’s economic imperatives and foundational mechanisms.”

    For example, the idea of “data ownership” is often championed as a solution. But what is the point of owning data that should not exist in the first place? All that does is further institutionalise and legitimate data capture. It’s like negotiating how many hours a day a seven-year-old should be allowed to work, rather than contesting the fundamental legitimacy of child labour. Data ownership also fails to reckon with the realities of behavioural surplus. Surveillance capitalists extract predictive value from the exclamation points in your post, not merely the content of what you write, or from how you walk and not merely where you walk. Users might get “ownership” of the data that they give to surveillance capitalists in the first place, but they will not get ownership of the surplus or the predictions gleaned from it – not without new legal concepts built on an understanding of these operations.

    Another example: there may be sound antitrust reasons to break up the largest tech firms, but this alone will not eliminate surveillance capitalism. Instead it will produce smaller surveillance capitalist firms and open the field for more surveillance capitalist competitors.

    So what is to be done? In any confrontation with the unprecedented, the first work begins with naming. Speaking for myself, this is why I’ve devoted the past seven years to this work… to move forward the project of naming as the first necessary step toward taming. My hope is that careful naming will give us all a better understanding of the true nature of this rogue mutation of capitalism and contribute to a sea change in public opinion, most of all among the young.

  • Israel Announces Sustained Strikes On Damascus; Syria Fires Back In Major Escalation

    It’s the first time that Israel has ever announced strikes against Iran inside Syria and in real time. Moments after a massive wave of rockets were fired on Damascus, activating Syrian anti-air defenses Sunday night, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) announced: “We have started striking Iranian Quds targets in Syrian territory. We warn the Syrian Armed Forces against attempting to harm Israeli forces or territory.”

    Sustained Israeli attack on Damascus overnight Sunday, via local Syrian sources. 

    This is unprecedented given that in every other among the dozens of prior recent Israeli attacks on Syria, the IDF has never acknowledged responsibility so quickly and certainly not while they are ongoing, usually declining to confirm or deny after the event.

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    Twelve hours prior the IDF said its Iron Dome Aerial Defense System intercepted a Syrian rocket fired into the northern Golan Heights after Israel launched a prior rare daylight raid on Syria on the “international airport, southwest of Damascus,” according to Syrian military officials. In what marks a major escalation, it appears Damascus responded to that attack with what Israeli media has called an “intentionally fired offensive surface-to-surface attack.”

    The Israeli intercept of that inbound Syrian surface-to-surface missile was caught on dramatic video, per The Times of Israel:

    The interception of the incoming Syrian projectile was seen over Mount Hermon, Israel’s tallest peak, which was full of visiting skiers, following a stormy period that dusted the mountain with snow.

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    Israel’s Sunday night attack has involved dozens of strikes reportedly from F-16 jets flying over Lebanon targeting locations in and around southern Damascus. Syria’s Pantsir and Buk air defense missile systems have reportedly shot down an unknown number of inbound Israeli rockets according to early unconfirmed video. 

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    Israel also reportedly launched multiple cruise missiles during the sustained assault. Local Syrians have described prolonged sustained explosions both overhead and on the ground, but it remains unclear how many Israeli rockets actually made it past Syrian defenses.

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    The IDF has warned Syria not to respond, which appears to be unheeded as Israeli media is reporting that anti-air defenses have been activated by inbound Syrian rockets over northern Israel and the Golan Heights

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    As of 1:45 AM Beirut time Al-Masdar News reports the following

    The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) unleashed a massive attack on the Damascus countryside at 1:05 A.M. (local time), tonight, hitting a number of targets in and around the town of Al-Kisweh.

    According to a military source, Israeli jets were first spotted over Jabal Sheikh-Golan Heights area; they would then fire several missiles towards Al-Kisweh.

    The Syrian military then activated their air defense units, but were unable to stop all the missiles that were fired at the Damascus countryside.

    The reported added, “The Israeli Air Force is now launching another wave of strikes on Damascus, with some reports claiming they are hitting targets near the Damascus International Airport.” 

    Strikes appeared to have subsided an hour or more after they began, and are reported to have included in total over 40 rockets launched in four waves. 

    developing…

  • "Elon Wants This Fat P*ssy": Azealia Banks Posts Text Message Flame War With Grimes

    Just a couple of days ago we posted that subpoenas could be forthcoming for Elon Musk’s ex-girlfriend, Grimes, and Musk’s one time houseguest Azealia Banks, as part of an investor lawsuit against Musk for last summer’s “funding secured” fiasco. We said in the post that the discovery process in the case could lead to interesting information as to what was going on behind the scenes, and in the mind of the parties involved, during the time Musk is alleged to have committed securities fraud.

    It now looks like we may not even need to wait – according to an unverified Twitter account (and semi-confirmed circumstantially by statements made on Banks’ Instagram) Azealia Banks allegedly recently posted conversations of text messages between her and Grimes from the summer of 2018. Upon examining these alleged text messages it appears as though Banks and Grimes had a massive falling out in August 2018 that led to a text message flame war. 

    The texts show Grimes allegedly calling Banks a “narc” and Banks leading on that Elon Musk might be interested in her instead of Grimes. Banks calls Grimes a “sore loser” and later tells her she doesn’t “even have bone marrow”. 

    After being called fat, Banks allegedly tells Grimes she smells “like a roll of nickels” and that she’s “not enough woman” for a man like Musk. “Elon is way out of your league,” Banks says. “He wants me…bad,” she continues. 

    After Grimes allegedly pokes Banks with a food joke, Banks follows up by informing her that “Elon wants this fat pussy”. She tells Grimes she needs “an IV and a tan” as well as “some breast implants, lip fillers and a burger”. 

    “You’re a basic white woman,” Banks allegedly says to Grimes. “I am by nature – superior to you, dear,” she continues, before Grimes finally ends the conversation. “Sweet narc dreams,” Grimes says to Banks, who signs off by saying “OK you brittleboned methhead”. 

    Though we were not able to verify these texts from Banks’ instagram at the time we published this, we were able to locate a post in her IG story that seems to allude to the fact that they had been taken down. 

    If you couldn’t wait for discovery in this lawsuit before, we can’t imagine how you’re feeling about it now. The strange Tesla saga continues – and it feels like it’s only going to get stranger.

  • Eisenhower's Nightmare On Steroids

    Authored by Franklin “Chuck” Spinney via The American Conservative,

    Trump’s new missile defense plan will be a bonanza for political patronage in Washington, and a huge fail for peace…

    President Donald Trump’s plan to escalate efforts in Ballistic Missile Defense (BDM), including the introduction of space-based weapons, should not be viewed in isolation.

    It comes on top of the Defense Department’s plan to execute an across-the-board modernization of all our nuclear strike forces. It comes on top of the expansion of NATO under three presidents, despite earlier promises (here and here) to the contrary. It comes on top of the unilateral decision by President George W. Bush to withdraw from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in June 2002, on top of Trump’s threat to withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, and on top of Trump’s publication of a more aggressive Nuclear Posture Review. To argue that such a massive effort is directed at deterring Iran or North Korea is ludicrous. Russia and China know who these programs and policies are aimed at.

    Viewed through the lens of the precautionary principle, any sensible strategic planner in Russia and China would have no choice but to see these efforts as being a consistent, integrated plan to harden the US nuclear shield while sharpening the US nuclear sword.

    Consider that the makeup of the offensive modernization program – i.e., the nuclear sword – includes:

    1) increased precision guidance;

    2) improved command and control systems;

    3) dial-a-yield warheads on nuclear gravity bombs;

    4) new families of nuclear warheads for ballistic and cruise missiles;

    5) new ICBMs;

    6) new air launched cruise missiles;

    7) new bombers;

    8) new missile-launching submarines;

    9) modernized SLBMs;

    10) new sea-launched cruise missiles; and

    11) new space-based C4ISR systems with the possibility of ASAT capabilities.

    Taking all of this into account, it is quite obvious that Russian and Chinese war planners will have no choice but to assume the worse about US intentions. Russian and Chinese planners will be forced to assume that Washington is returning to the thoroughly discredited 1970s-era nuclear war-fighting theory of graduated nuclear escalation via the use of a series limited nuclear options, punctuated perhaps by diplomatic signaling. Application of the precautionary principle by Russian and Chinese nuclear war planners would force them to conclude that the US believes it can fight and win a nuclear war regardless of any US protestations about its sword-shield modernization plan being a defensive application of deterrence theory.

    Perhaps more importantly, savvy Russian and Chinese political advisors will understand how the flood of money pouring into these sword/shield modernization efforts will paralyze the patronage-addicted US decision-making system. The fact that the multi-billion dollar, failure-prone BMD program continued unabated after the end of the Cold War illustrates the paralyzing staying power of patronage addiction.

    The flood of dollars to every congressional district will increase sharply, creating an even more powerful web of political patronage in the form of jobs, corporate profits, and domestic political power. This web will, like its predecessors, lock in the continued funding of these programs for reasons of domestic politics that have nothing to do with the needs of foreign policy. Future political leaders in the United States will be handcuffed into continuing these programs for the reasons President Dwight D. Eisenhower outlined in his Farewell Addressonly this time, our future will be Eisenhower’s nightmare on steroids.

    Even if Trump has the best of intentions, he and his successors will find it impossible to convince Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, or their successors, that the US political system does not want – or more accurately, does not need – a new Cold War. Given the current chaos in US politics, our adversaries (and perhaps even our allies) may well think that hyping the domestic politics of pervasive unreasoning fear by starting and maintaining a new Cold War is the only way the US political elite can bring order to the increasingly corrupt, chaotic, and dysfunctional political system of their own making.

    And in such circumstances, it is hard to see how Trump could convince Putin and Xi that he really wants better relations, when his own government is unleashing uncontrollable domestic patronage forces that will shape US foreign policy for the next 30 to 50 years.
     

  • "Recent Market Dynamics Would Be Consistent With The Economy Already In A Recession"

    One week ago, when we discussed why the Fed now finds itself trapped by the slowing economy on one hand, and the market’s response to the Fed’s reaction to the slowing economy (namely the market’s subsequent sharp rebound, only the third time since 1938 that we’ve seen a V-shape recovery of this magnitude when the market dropped down more than ~10% and spiked +10% in the subsequent period), we said that the “obvious problem” is that the Fed is cutting because the economy is indeed entering a recession, even as market have already rebounded by over 10% from the recent “bear market” low factoring in a the economic response to an easier Fed, effectively cutting the drop in half expecting the Fed to react precisely to this drop, while ignoring the potential underlying economic reality (the one confirmed by the bizarrely low neutral rate, suggesting that the US economy is far weaker than most expect).

    Ultimately, what this all boils down to as Bank of America explained yesterday, is whether the economy is entering a recession, or – somewhat reflexively – whether the suddenly dovish Fed, trapped by the market, has started a chain of events that inevitably ends with a recession. The historical record is ambivalent: as Bloomberg notes, similar to 1998 and 1987, the S&P fell into a bear market last month (from which it immediately rebounded) following a Fed rate hike. The difference is that in the previous two periods, the Fed cut rates in response to market crises – the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management in 1998 and the Black Monday stock crash in 1987 – without the economy slipping into a recession. In comparison, the meltdown in December occurred without a similar market event.

    And yet, a meltdown did occur, and it has a lot to do with confusing messaging by the Fed, which did a 180-degree U-Turn when in the span of just two weeks, the Fed chair went from unexpectedly hawkish during the December FOMC press conference (which unleashed fire and brimstone in the market), to blissfully dovish when he conceded at the start of January that the Fed will be “patient” and the balance sheet unwind is not on “autopilot.”

    But it wasn’t just the Fed’s messaging in a vacuum that prompted the sharp December drop: it is also the fact that the Fed and the market continue to co-exist in a world of perilous reflexivity, a point made – in his typical post-modernist, James Joyceian, Jacque Lacanian fashion – by Deutsche Bank’s credit strategist Aleksandar Kocic, who writes that “the underlying ambiguities of the market’s interpretation of economic conditions are an example of financial parallax – the apparent disorientation due to  displacement caused by the change in point of view that provides a new line of sight” (or, said much more simply, the Market reacts to the Fed, and the Fed reacts to the market in circular, co-dependant fashion).

    Yet while there is nothing new in the reflexive nature of the coexistence between the Fed and market, this process appeared to short-circuit in Q4. So “where is the problem and what are the sources of misunderstanding” asks Kocic, and answer by taking “the timeline from November of last year as the onset of the subverted perspective and the beginning of the self-referential circularity” (as we have said before, Kocic takes a certain delight in using just a few extra words than is necessary for the attention spans of most traders, even if liberal majors find a particular delight in his narrative). Anyway, continuing the Kocic narrative of where the reflexivity between the Fed and market broke down, in the chart below the Deutsche Bank strategist shows two snapshots of the swaps curve from November and January.

    As we noted repeatedly over the past 4 weeks, while the long end has largely experienced a parallel shift lower, Kocic correctly points out that “the biggest drama has occurred in the belly of the curve which has inverted through the five-year horizon”, yet where Kocic’s view differs is that according to him, this is not indicative of a risk off trade but is instead “a radical repricing of the Fed.” Meanwhile, according to the DB strategist, the inversion of the front end is the main source of the reinforcing loop “as it brings in the uncomfortable mode of what we think is a misidentified alarm and incorrect interpretation of its economic significance.”

    To make his point, Kocic looks at the previous episodes of curve flattening during the past two tightening cycles.

    As DB notes, unlike the past two episodes of Fed tightening, when rate hikes were responsible for bear inversions, the last three months represent a bull inversion. In other words, “the recent flattening and inversion of some sectors of the curve has been driven by a decline in long rates that outpaced the decline in short rates.”

    As others have observed, this departure from history highlights a potential flaw in the logic behind the connection between inversion and recession, Kocic writes, and explains:

    If excessive Fed tightening is the likely trigger of the next recession, then the underlying logic and causality must go as follows. The Fed continues to hike until it becomes restrictive and the economy begins to contract which eventually forces the Fed to reverse its direction. The former causes curve inversion and a tightening of financial conditions through a decline in the stock market and wider credit spreads together with an economic slowdown. The Fed then begins to cut rates in order to counter the effect of excessive tightening and the curve re-steepens.

    Simple enough, and also extremely problematic, because as we explained last weekend, it’s not the Fed tightening that is the recession catalyst: it is when the Fed begins cutting rates that one should be worried as all three prior recessions followed within 3 months of the first rate cut after a hiking cycle:

    … while many analysts will caution that it is the Fed’s rate hikes that ultimately catalyze the next recession and the every Fed tightening ends with a financial “event”, the truth is that there is one step missing from this analysis, and it may come as a surprise to many that the last three recessions all took place with 3 months of the first rate cut after a hiking cycle!

    If that wasn’t bad enough, Kocic notes that if “this were how things work, the recent market dynamics would be consistent with the US economy already being in a recession” and explains that “with rates already rallying, the implication is that the Fed deliberately and mistakenly continued to hike. This is the territory of a serious policy mistake.”

    In other words, bull inversion and rate hikes would indicate that the Fed was totally detached from the realities of the market.

    Yet after laying out this scenario, one which the market was obsessed with for much of December, Kocic counters that a closer look at the recent repricing “suggests that this narrative of a policy mistake may be misleading and market dynamics reveal something very different from a recessionary market mode” and further claims that what happened fits with the Fed sticking to the script of market normalization as a priority to wit:

    this interpretation runs contrary to the recent response from the Fed, in which they have shown an unmistakable attention to detail with a thorough understanding of the complexity of the situation with all the risks associated with the stimulus unwind. The Fed has also gone to great lengths throughout this normalization process to prepare the markets for its exit and take care not to generate additional problems along the way. The well-telegraphed unwind of the balance sheet, which has come under increasing scrutiny over the past month is just one example of the Fed understanding the potential pitfalls of providing too little guidance.

    Kocic then goes on to further claim that the market reaction is “a clear demonstration that the Fed is on track with the normalization of the rates market”, and thatr “by sticking to its script, the Fed has forced another leg of normalization. The two aspects of this are shown both in the decline of the correlations back into negative territory as well as the migration of volatility to the front end of the curve, both corresponding to the pre-2008 curve functioning.”

    Why does Kocic take such a contrarian view, at least relative to the broader market? Because, as he explains, “if bear steepeners and bull flatteners were to continue to be the dominant curve modes, monetary policy shocks are at risk of being amplified, and the potential for a disruptive unanchoring of the back end of the curve, with its hazardous ramifications for risk assets and credit in particular, is heightened.”

    This is why normalization requires front-loading monetary policy shocks and focusing on the front end with the fed funds rate remaining the primary policy tool, while – despite some calls to the contrary – the balance sheet unwind should remain predictable and controlled.

    Whether Kocic is correct or not we will know shortly, perhaps as soon as March, when the Fed – which as we discussed previously remains a hostage to markets – will be pressed to halt its balance sheet reduction, and which would immediately crush Kocic’s theory that the Fed is purposefully normalizing instead of simply being forced to react to the market’s every whim.

    In any case – accuracy of the DB strategist notwithstanding – the bigger problem, and this goes back to our point from last week, is that no matter what the Fed does at this point, its actions will almost certainly precipitate the very recession it hopes to avoid.

    Why? The following chart from SocGen answers that question in grandiose simplicity: because it is not the curve flattening that is the recession catalyst – it is sharp curve steepening, whether bull or bear-driven, that precedes the immediate onset of the recession.

    And once the steepener trade finally takes off, Kocic’s variant perception that “recent market dynamics would be consistent with the US economy already being in a recession” would be spot on: at that point, the bond market would finally admit that everything that happened ever since the Fed though it could normalize has been one massive mistake…. just as Ben Bernanke predicted admitted in May 2014, when he said that there would be “no rate normalization during my lifetime.”

  • Why "Democratic Vote Harvesting" Will Be The Biggest Topic Of 2020

    During last November’s midterm elections, California Republicans in several districts watched election night victories melt into losses thanks to a tactic employed by Democrats called “ballot harvesting,” which allows anyone to go door-to-door and collect mail-in ballots on behalf of voters. 

    Illegal in many states, the practice flipped the Republican stronghold of Orange County completely blue after an unprecedented 250,000 vote-by-mail drop-offs were counted according to the San Francisco Chronicle. 

    As 2020 approaches, Democrats in Congress want to apply several California voting laws across the country via their “For The People Act,” or H.R.1, which would require all 50 states to adopt automatic voter registration based on federal databases – such as those on food stamps. It also mandates looser rules governing provisional ballots, two weeks of early voting, prohibits restrictions on voting by mail, and limits the ability for states to remove voters from rolls. 

    Absent from H.R.1 is vote harvesting, however as the Wall Street Journal notes in a recent Op-Ed, “give Democrats time.” 

    ***

    Via the Wall Street Journal

    Harvesting Democratic Votes
    Liberals want to impose the California voting model on all 50 states

    Democrats in Congress are making election reform their top legislative priority, and we’ve criticized it as a majority protection act. To understand why, consider that Democrats are trying to do for the country what they’ve done with election laws in California.

    The Golden State is where Republican candidates went to bed on election night in November with leads in most of their competitive House races, only to lose in the ensuing weeks of vote counting. In Orange County, Young Kim was poised to become the first Korean-American woman in Congress, with a sizable lead on Election Day over her Democratic opponent. She lost by three percentage points. Republican Rep. Mimi Walters’s 6,074-vote lead on Nov. 6 turned into an 11,866-vote loss to Democrat Katie Porter.

    The GOP wipeout came after the Democrats who dominate Sacramento passed laws aimed at greasing their voting machine. The project started in 2015 when California became the second state after Oregon to move to automatic voter registration.

    Can’t be bothered to register? California does it for you, automatically adding to its rolls any person who has any interaction with its Department of Motor Vehicles. The system is already a threat to ballot integrity, with the DMV acknowledging in September it had incorrectly registered 23,000 voters.

    In 2016 California passed the Voter’s Choice Act, which allows counties to mail every voter a ballot. Lots of Californians use mail voting, though previously they had to request it. Now ballots arrive automatically, whether voters want one or not. Thirteen million California voters received ballots in the mail last year, compared to about nine million in 2014.

    The biggest score for Democrats is a separate 2016 law pushed heavily by unionsthat legalized what’s known as ballot harvesting. This allows any person—union activists, canvassers, community organizers, campaign staff—to show up at homes and collect mail ballots on behalf of voters.

    California law also allows counting mail ballots postmarked or delivered on Election Day, as well as same-day registration and liberal use of provisional ballots. This year the Democratic vote totals piled up long after the polls closed. Fred Whitaker, chairman of the Orange County GOP, has estimated that an extraordinary 250,000 mail-votes were dropped off on Election Day thanks to harvesting.

    All of this is carefully designed to enhance Democratic turnout. Media stories have detailed a sophisticated operation that pinpointed Democratic voters and deployed volunteers to harvest door-to-door. Republicans struggled to get conservatives to hand ballots over to strangers, and Democrats can’t be blamed for better organization.

    But California law also creates opportunity for fraud and coercion. Voters in a 2017 special election for an open seat in the California state Assembly reported activists harassed them at their doors to fill out ballots for specific candidates and hand them over.

    This creates opportunities for harvesters to “help” voters complete their ballots, or even pay to finish them, and it’s easy for the unscrupulous to lose ballots they think may go for the wrong candidate. This is why ballot harvesting is illegal in many states, or at least limited to drop-offs by family members.

    House Democrats are now moving to impose much of this on the other 49 states. Their For the People Act, or H.R.1, would require all states to adopt automatic voter registration based on names in state and federal agency databases. This means anyone receiving federal food stamps in, say, Ohio, would be automatically registered to vote.

    The bill also requires states to allow same-day and online voter registration. It mandates looser rules on provisional ballots, requires every state to provide two weeks of early voting, prohibits restrictions on mail voting, and limits states’ ability to remove voters from rolls. Oh, and it will require that the United States Postal Service deliver ballots for free. Vote harvesting isn’t in H.R.1 but give Democrats time.

    All this is an affront to the American tradition of letting states set their own election rules. Few states have automatic registration, on the principle that voting is voluntary. Even liberal Slate magazine, in suggesting that the House bill would “Save American Democracy,” acknowledged that some of the bill might not survive Supreme Court scrutiny.

    California has become a one-party state, and Democrats have used their dominance to make it even harder for Republicans to compete. Now they want to use their new House majority to do the same for the rest of America. The Senate can stop them for now, but look out in 2021.

    Appeared in the January 19, 2019, print edition.

  • Illinois' Lethal Combination: Rising Property Taxes & Stagnant Incomes

    Authored by Ted Dabrowski and John Klingner via WirePoints.com,

    A lethal combination of rising property taxes and stagnant incomes has forced many Illinoisans to rethink their relationship with their state. More than 1.5 million net residents have already fled the state since 2000 – and you can’t blame others for thinking about joining them.

    Property taxes have become punitive in Illinois. We’ve written about how these taxes have destroyed the equity in people’s homes across the state. Many families have done the math, and whether they’re in the struggling south suburbs of Chicago or the affluent North Shore, they’ve decided to leave Illinois behind.

    The traditional method for measuring the burden of property taxes is to look at a household’s property tax bill and compare it to a home’s value. Under this method, Illinoisans pay the highest property taxes in the nation. At 2.7 percent, Illinoisans pay far more than residents in neighboring states – twice more than those in Missouri and three times more than residents in Indiana.

    That fact is outrageous on its own.

    But to really understand the pain that these taxes inflict on Illinoisans, it’s important to compare property tax bills to household incomes. After all, those bills are paid straight from people’s earnings.

    The unfortunate reality is that Illinois incomes have been stagnant for years – and falling when you consider the impact of inflation.

    Between 2000 and 2017, Illinois median household incomes increased just 34 percent, far short of inflation. In contrast, household property tax bills are up 105 percent, according toIllinois Department of Revenue data.

    The net result: Property tax bills per household have grown three times faster than household incomes since 2000.

    That means more of Illinoisans’ hard-earned incomes are going toward property taxes and less towards groceries, college tuition, and retirement savings. In 2017, 6.73 percent of household incomes went toward property taxes, up from 4.3 percent in 2000.

    That’s a 55 percent increase in the effective tax rate.

    The detailed data is below:

    Property taxes, county by county

    Residents of Lake County pay the highest property taxes in Illinois when measured as a percentage of household incomes. In 2000, Lake County residents paid 6.5 percent of their household incomes toward property taxes. Today, residents pay 9.1 percent. That’s a 40 percent increase. The average Lake County property tax bill is now over $7,500 per household.

    Meanwhile the residents of the other collar counties and Cook pay more than 7 percent of their incomes to property taxes, with average bills ranging from $4,500 to $6,200 a year.

    Overall, the collar counties pay the highest taxes as a percent of income in the state. But it’s not just the Chicago suburbs that are taking a hit. Taxpayers statewide have seen their taxes rise.

    In fact, most of the counties that have had the biggest tax growth, in percentage terms, are found downstate. Hardin County residents, though they pay low rates, have seen them jump 97 percent since 2000. Residents in Pulaski County, have seen their rates go up by 78 percent.

    Cook County comes next at 75 percent, but after that it’s all deep downstate again: Calhoun (70 percent), Greene (66 percent), Jersey (65 percent), and Pope County (62 percent).

    Taxes too high

    Any way you cut it, Illinoisans are being punished by property taxes.

    That’s prompted some, including new Gov. J.B. Pritzker, to propose a reduction in property taxes by increasing income taxes.

    But that would do Illinoisans no good. Illinoisans already pay the nation’s 6th-highest rates when you lump all state and local taxes together.

    Shifting them around won’t help when the total tax bill is too high to begin with. What Illinoisans need is tax cut, not a tax shift.

  • China 2018 GDP Growth Slows To Weakest In 28 Years

    Update: Not wanting to bury the lead, here is some context for the mixed bag tonight from China. China’s annual GDP growth in 2018 was +6.6% – that is the weakest annual GDP growth since 1990…

    *  *  *

    After downbeat headlines over US-China trade talks, and following China’s greatest liquidity injection ever (over 1.1 trillion yuan last week) after weak Chinese macro data in the last few months (including the collapse of China trade data), all eyes were on tonight’s avalanche of China economic data.

    The Q3 bounce in macro data was extremely weak…

    And yuan has oddly strengthened…

    Despite constant easing by fiscal and monetary authorities

    After the weakest trade data since 2016, which reflects an end to export front-loading and the start of payback effects…

    China just injected a record 1.16 trillion yuan into the financial system… (yea trillion with a ‘t’)

    We’ve had no shortage of warning signs in recent weeks and months that the slowdown was becoming more broad based, including the official manufacturing PMI dipped below 50 into contractionary territory for the first time since March 2016.

    China’s car sales, for example, declined last year for the first time in more than two decades.

    Here’s another sign that China’s economy is slowing: GDP in the southern manufacturing hub of Shenzhen grew at 7.5 percent in 2018, Xinhua reported Friday. That compared with a growth rate of 8.8 percent in 2017, and 9.1 percent in 2016.

    So what does tonight hold?

    • China Retail Sales YoY BEAT +8.2% (+8.1% exp)

    • China Industrial Production YoY BEAT +5.7% (+5.3% exp)

    • China Fixed Asset Investment YoY  MISS +5.9%(+6.0% exp)

    • China Property Investment YoY SLOWED +9.5% YoY

    • China Surveyed Jobless Rate WORSENED 4.9%

    And last but not least the big one:

    • China GDP YoY SLOWED +6.4% (+6.4% exp)

    And visually…

    These figures at first glance should alleviate concerns that China’s slowdown would continuously get worse, although the question of course will be how reliable these figures are, but they do suggest that China’s efforts to support growth are already starting to have some effect.

    There was no dramatic impact as yet in markets.

    The question is – is good new, bad news? We have already seen how unsuccessful China’s easing efforts have been in stimulating any economic rebound… and the PBOC explicitly stated last week that there will be no blanket easing policies.

    But, what really matters is China’s credit impulse and its lagged effect on the economy and market… and it just hit a new cyclical low…

    China will set its 2019 growth target officially at the annual gathering of the legislature in March, known as the National People’s Congress. Reuters has reported that the plan is a range of 6 to 6.5%. But, as Bloomberg’s Chris Anstey notes, many economists would applaud if China abandoned the target entirely. In the past it has been faulted for giving officials the incentive of pursuing growth regardless of cost — leading to a build-up of bad loans and under-performing assets, weighing down on productivity and ultimately hurting the economy.

    Of course, much like in the US, regardless of today’s numbers, the story has already moved on. That’s because the trade talks will determine whether or not there’s another dose of tariffs or other barriers to investment. They will also dictate any near term reforms that China will need to push through to sate the trade hawks in Washington.

  • More Fake News Exposed As Media Lies About Catholic Kids, Native American Debacle

    Authored by Robby Soave via Reason.com,

    ‘Journalists’ who uncritically accepted Nathan Phillips’ story got this completely wrong…

    Partial video footage of students from a Catholic high school allegedly harassing a Native American veteran after the anti-abortion March for Life rally in Washington, D.C., on Saturday quickly went viral, provoking widespread condemnation of the kids on social media. Various media figures and Twitter users called for them to be doxed, shamed, or otherwise punished, and school administrators said they would consider expulsion.

    But the rest of the video – nearly two hours of additional footage showing what happened before and after the encounter – adds important context that strongly contradicts the media’s narrative.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Far from engaging in racially motivated harassment, the group of mostly white, MAGA-hat-wearing male teenagers remained relatively calm and restrained despite being subjected to incessant racist, homophobic, and bigoted verbal abuse by members of the bizarre religious sect Black Hebrew Israelites, who were lurking nearby. The BHI has existed since the late 19th century, and is best describes as a black nationalist cult movement; its members believe they are descendants of the ancient Israelites, and often express condemnation of white people, Christians, and gays. DC-area Black Hebrews are known to spout particularly vile bigotry.

    Phillips put himself between the teens and the black nationalists, chanting and drumming as he marched straight into the middle of the group of young people. What followed was several minutes of confusion: The teens couldn’t quite decide whether Phillips was on their side or not, but tentatively joined in his chanting. It’s not at all clear this was intended as an act of mockery rather than solidarity.

    One student did not get out of Phillips way as he marched, and gave the man a hard stare and a smile that many have described as creepy. This moment received the most media coverage: The teen has been called the product of a “hate factory” and likened to a school shooter, segregation-era racist, and member of the Klu Klux Klan. I have no idea what he was thinking, but portraying this as an example of obvious, racially-motivated hate is a stretch. Maybe he simply had no idea why this man was drumming in his face, and couldn’t quite figure out the best response? It bears repeating that Phillips approached him, not the other way around.

    And that’s all there is to it. Phillips walked away after several minutes, the Black Hebrew Israelites continued to insult the crowd, and nothing else happened.

    You can judge for yourself. Here is video footage of the full incident, from the perspective of the black nationalists.

    Phillips enters the picture around the 1:12 mark, but if you skip to that part, you miss an hour of the Black Hebrew Israelites hurling obscenities at the students. They call them crackers, faggots, and pedophiles. At the 1:20 mark (which comes after the Phillips incident) they call one of the few black students the n-word and tell him that his friends are going to murder him and steal his organs. At the 1:25 mark, they complain that “you give faggots rights,” which prompted booing from the students. Throughout the video they threaten the kids with violence, and attempt to goad them into attacking first. The students resisted these taunts admirably: They laughed at the hecklers, and they perform a few of their school’s sports cheers.

    It was at this moment that Phillips, who had attended a nearby peace protest led by indigenous peoples, decided to intervene. He would later tell The Detroit Free Press that the teenagers “were in the process of attacking these four black individuals” and he decided to attempt to de-escalate the situation. He seems profoundly mistaken: The video footage taken by the black nationalists shows no evidence the white teenagers had any intention of attacking. Nevertheless, Phillips characterized the kids as “beasts” and the hate-group members as “their prey”:

    “There was that moment when I realized I’ve put myself between beast and prey,” Phillips said.

    “These young men were beastly and these old black individuals was their prey, and I stood in between them and so they needed their pounds of flesh and they were looking at me for that.”

    Again, all the evidence suggests that Phillips got it backward.

    He also claimed that he heard chants of “build the wall.” While I cannot rule out the possibility that some of the kids indeed chanted this—those who were wearing MAGA hats are presumably Trump supporters—I did not hear a single utterance of the phrase in the nearly two hours of video footage I watched. Admittedly, the kids do a lot of chanting and it’s not always possible to tell what they are saying. Their stated explanation is that they engaged in a series of school sports chants: That’s what one student told a local news reporter. His account largely tracks with the video.

    “We are an all-male school that loves to get hyped up,” said this student. “And as we have done for years prior, we decided to do some cheers to pass time. In the midst of our cheers, we were approached by a group of adults led by Nathan Phillips, with Phillips beating his drum. They forced their way to the center of our group. We initially thought this was a cultural display since he was beating along to our cheers and so we clapped to the beat.”

    According to this student, the smiling student was grinning because he was enjoying the music, but eventually became confused, along with everyone else. (Indeed, multiple people can be heard to shout, “what is going on?”)

    It would be impossible to definitively state that none of the young men did anything wrong, offensive, or problematic, at some point, and maybe the smiling student was attempting to intimidate Phillips. But there’s shockingly little evidence of wrongdoing, unless donning a Trump hat and standing in a group of other people doing the same is now an act of harassment or violence. Phillips’ account, meanwhile, is at best flawed, and arguably deliberately misleading.

    Unless other information emerges, the school’s best move would be to have a conversation with the boys about the incident, perhaps discuss some strategies for remaining on perfect behavior at highly charged political rallies—where everybody is recording everything on a cell phone—and let that be the end of it.

    The boys are undoubtedly owed an apology from the numerous people who joined this social media pile-on. This is shaping up to be one of the biggest major media misfires in quite some time.

    *  *  *

    Additionally, the Catholic Church – which took decades to actually criticize and admit its systemic pedophilia problem – were extremely quick to criticize the Covington kids…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    And CNN’s Jake Tapper admitted the media’s error…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    And even David Brooks flipped…

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    Finally, Rod Dreher wrote in The American Conservative:

    It is possible that the Catholic boys were complete asses. My initial judgment was that they certainly were that. You don’t treat a peaceful elderly person like this. Even if they thought he was wrong, those boys owed him respect. Yes, the old man approached them, but they could and should have handled him with respect. They come off as bullies.

    But then I watched more clips, showing the greater context of the incident. It is not as simple as it has been portrayed. Below is a more complete video account of what happened. In it, one of the Catholic boys is overheard asking, “Does anybody know what he’s doing? Does anybody know what’s going on here.”

    And, in it, one of the Indians with Phillips shouts: “White people, go back to Europe. This is not your land.” He curses the students with f-bombs (video is NSFW). He goes on: “You’re being a white man about it. That’s all you know how to do.”

    You didn’t see that in the news reporting, did you?

    Nope.

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Today’s News 20th January 2019

  • Is The Violent Dismemberment Of Russia Official US Policy?

    Authored by Erik D’Amato via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity,

    If there’s one thing everyone in today’s Washington can agree on, it’s that whenever an official or someone being paid by the government says something truly outrageous or dangerous, there should be consequences, if only a fleeting moment of media fury.

    With one notable exception: Arguing that the US should be quietly working to promote the violent disintegration and carving up of the largest country on Earth.

    Because so much of the discussion around US-Russian affairs is marked by hysteria and hyperbole, you are forgiven for assuming this is an exaggeration. Unfortunately it isn’t. Published in the Hill under the dispassionate title “Managing Russia’s dissolution,” author Janusz Bugajski makes the case that the West should not only seek to contain “Moscow’s imperial ambitions” but to actively seek the dismemberment of Russia as a whole.

    Engagement, criticism and limited sanctions have simply reinforced Kremlin perceptions that the West is weak and predictable. To curtail Moscow’s neo-imperialism a new strategy is needed, one that nourishes Russia’s decline and manages the international consequences of its dissolution.

    Like many contemporary cold warriors, Bugajski toggles back and forth between overhyping Russia’s might and its weaknesses, notably a lack of economic dynamism and a rise in ethnic and regional fragmentation. But his primary argument is unambiguous: That the West should actively stoke longstanding regional and ethnic tensions with the ultimate aim of a dissolution of the Russian Federation, which Bugajski dismisses as an “imperial construct.”

    The rationale for dissolution should be logically framed: In order to survive, Russia needs a federal democracy and a robust economy; with no democratization on the horizon and economic conditions deteriorating, the federal structure will become increasingly ungovernable…

    To manage the process of dissolution and lessen the likelihood of conflict that spills over state borders, the West needs to establish links with Russia’s diverse regions and promote their peaceful transition toward statehood.

    Even more alarming is Bugajski’s argument that the goal should not be self-determination for breakaway Russian territories, but the annexing of these lands to other countries. “Some regions could join countries such as Finland, Ukraine, China and Japan, from whom Moscow has forcefully appropriated territories in the past.”

    It is, needless to say, impossible to imagine anything like this happening without sparking a series of conflicts that could mirror the Yugoslav Wars. Except in this version the US would directly culpable in the ignition of the hostilities, and in range of 6,800 Serbian nuclear warheads.

    So who is Janusz Bugajski, and who is he speaking for?

    The author bio on the Hill’s piece identifies him as a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, a Washington, D.C. think-tank. But CEPA is no ordinary talk shop: Instead of the usual foundations and well-heeled individuals, its financial backers seem to be mostly arms of the US government, including the Department of State, the Department of Defense, the US Mission to NATO, the US-government-sponsored National Endowment for Democracy, as well as as veritable who’s who of defense contractors, including Raytheon, Bell Helicopter, BAE Systems, Lockheed Martin and Textron. Meanwhile, Bugajski chairs the South-Central Europe area studies program at the Foreign Service Institute of the US Department of State.

    To put it in perspective, it is akin to a Russian with deep ties to the Kremlin and arms-makers arguing that the Kremlin needed to find ways to break up the United States and, if possible, have these breakaway regions absorbed by Mexico and Canada. (A scenario which alas is not as far-fetched as it might have been a few years ago; many thousands in California now openly talk of a “Calexit,” and many more in Mexico of a reconquista.)

    Meanwhile, it’s hard to imagine a quasi-official voice like Bugajski’s coming out in favor of a similar policy vis-a-vis China, which has its own restive regions, and which in geopolitical terms is no more or less of a threat to the US than Russia. One reason may be that China would consider an American call for secession by the Tibetans or Uyghurs to be a serious intrusion into their internal affairs, unlike Russia, which doesn’t appear to have noticed or been ruffled by Bugajski’s immodest proposal.

    Indeed, just as the real scandal in Washington is what’s legal rather than illegal, the real outrage in this case is that few or none in DC finds Bugajski’s virtual declaration of war notable.

    But it is. It is the sort of provocation that international incidents are made of, and if you are a US taxpayer, it is being made in your name, and it should be among your outrages of the month.

  • NYC's Housing-Market Weakness Spreads From Manhattan To The Outer Boroughs

    Throughout vast swaths of New York City, members of the city’s vast middle class work force can barely afford even a modest apartment. Yet for years after the post-crisis housing market recovery began, that reality did little to slow down the rise in home valuations as foreign capital and rock bottom interest rates fueled a buying frenzy, pushing rents ever-higher. But after citywide rents peaked in 2014, the NYC housing market, particularly the most expensive areas of Manhattan, has started to soften.

    But whereas only a few quarters ago that weakness was largely confined to the top tiers of the city’s housing market, the pressure on sellers to lower their asks has swiftly spread. Now, in almost every neighborhood in Manhattan and in nearly every one of Brooklyn’s trendiest neighborhoods, more than one-fifth of sellers have been forced to lower their asks – sometimes substantially so – as mortgage rates rise and global growth begins to slow.

    NYC

    Here’s more from Bloomberg:

    In almost every Manhattan neighborhood, at least a fifth of the listings got a price cut in the last three months of 2018, data from StreetEasy show. The biggest share was in the East Village, where 33 percent of homes were offered for less.

    Inventory is piling up across the city, and that’s good news for buyers in search of a bargain. For sellers with dreams of making a big profit, it’s time for a reality check.

    “What we’re seeing right now is a lot of folks being forced to adjust their expectations,” said Grant Long, senior economist at StreetEasy. “We expect that prices are going to have to come down even more for it to make sense for a lot of buyers who are in the market.”

    In Brooklyn, 21 percent of listings in trendy Williamsburg were reduced. The share was 22 percent in nearby Greenpoint, and 39 percent in Fort Greene.

    Unsurprisingly, one exception to the trend of price declines in trendy neighborhoods is Queens’ Long Island City, soon to be the host of Amazon’s new HQ2 (or one of them, at least). Only 12% of sellers in LIC had to lower their expectations.

    SN

    LIC

    As we pointed out earlier, the softness in NYC is having a knock-on effect on markets outside of NYC: In tony Greenwich, Conn., home sales plunged during Q4 as buyers who were forced to lower the ask on their NYC apartments cut their budget for homes in Greenwich. And with brokers warning about the looming impact of Trump’s SALT elimination, sellers who are holding out for a better price might soon wish they had sold sooner.

  • 5G, Huawei, and Us – America Hates Competition

    Authored by Tom Luongo,

    While no one, including me, doubts that the intensity of corporate espionage that goes on in the tech industry the latest news in the Trump Administration’s assault on Chinese telecom giant Huawai should dispel any doubts as to what the real issue is.

    The Trump administration is preparing an executive order that could significantly restrict Chinese state-owned telecom companies from operating in the U.S. over national security concerns, according to people familiar with the matter.

    Reached by Bloomberg, a spokesman for the White House National Security Council wouldn’t confirm whether an order is in the works, but did state that “the United States is working across government and with our allies and like-minded partners to mitigate risk in the deployment of 5G and other communications infrastructure.” In the statement, spokesman Garrett Marquis also said that “communications networks form the backbone of our society and underpin every aspect of modern life. The United States will ensure that our networks are secure and reliable.”

    As always with statements in stories planted in major U.S. media houses like these what isn’t said is more important than what is said.

    There are two major bones of contention with Huawei from the U.S. government’s perspective.

    First is that Huawei is way ahead of everyone else in 5G technology.

    They have the only end-to-end technology stack in the industry. Turnkey 5G networks from antennas and chips to the power stations needed to operate them. Simply peruse their website to see what I’m talking about.

    All across the “Five Eyes” countries we have seen announcement after announcement of their banning Huawei 5G equipment from their networks. This is as much economic protectionism as it is about ‘national security.’

    But, the real issue here is that, in very short order, Huawei has become a global leader in 5G infrastructure technology which the U.S. is falling behind on.  And now with this arrest [Huawei CFO Weng Wanzhou] Trump is betting that he can scare everyone else into not buying their superior products through the ruinous application of sanctions policies.

    The West has been systematically cutting Huawei out of the global 5G rollout because of ‘security’ concerns. More like profit concerns.  It is, simply, typical protectionism by Mr. Tariff himself.

    And he’s made no bones about any of this.  Trump has stated quite emphatically that all a policy has to do is pass his ‘America First’ sniff test and it’ll get implemented.

    And since he’s not a deep thinker, all he cares about are first-order effects and how he can sell it on his Twitter feed to his now brain-dead base who believes all of this ‘China hacked muh everything’ narrative we’re being inundated with all of a sudden.

    So that’s the first angle on this.

    But, the real issue isn’t just Huawei’s technological advantage which will put it in the driver’s seat to connect most of the unconnected world.

    The real issue is that nothing has changed since a 2014 report from The Register that Huawei categorically refuses to install NSA backdoors into their hardware to allow unfettered intelligence access to the data that crosses their networks.

    However, documents disclosed by Edward Snowden this year suggest Huawei may be more sinned against than sinner. The US National Security Agency’s ‘Tailored Access Operations’ unit broke into Huawei’s corporate servers, and by 2010 was reading corporate email and examining the source code used in Huawei’s products.

    “We currently have good access and so much data that we don’t know what to do with it,” boasted one NSA briefing. The slides also disclose the NSA intended to plant its own backdoors in Huawei firmware.

    So, make no mistake, the China hawks in the Trump administration are willing to derail a much-needed technology rollout in order to maintain complete control over data flow which four years ago was beyond their ability to process.

    John Bolton is willing to start WWIII over a couple of pipe bombs thrown at the U.S. embassy in Baghdad, for pity’s sake. Is it so far-fetched to believe he doesn’t want us to have 5G data access without the security blanket of spying on anyone he wants at any time?

    Never forget that when they are presenting you with one bogeyman it is to distract you from the real one — them. We know from the myriad of leaks and data breaches that all of our data winds up in the hands people we didn’t give consent to.

    We know that the NSA has access to any information it wants, obtained via the fiction of ‘legal channels.’ So why should we go through the fiction of pretending like Huawei is the real threat?

    They may very well be, but it hasn’t been proven and it would be bad business for them to actually do so.

    The national security angle is simply about Huawei refusing the U.S. repeatedly on granting backdoor access to our information.

    It reveals both an insecurity and an insanity that grips every society in the late stages of Imperialism. As the competitive edge is lost the threat of competition fuels paranoia and the need to control everything.

    But it is this need for control and the diverting of an ever-increasing proportion of the country’s resources to it that drives further loss of competitive edge.

    Simply put capital isn’t going into innovation, it’s going into defending your moats, as Warren Buffet would put it. Moats around your business aren’t permanent. They require maintenance and innovation to remain strong.

    Banning Huawei’s 5G network technology will ensure the communications gap between the U.S. and the rest of the world remains since the best products will not be on the market to spur competition, drive prices and costs down which fuel the next round of innovation.

    Even as patriots worried about China’s most nefarious schemes we should not be applauding this. Because 5G itself is technology so far in advance of where we are now it means a completely different Internet architecture.

    We’re staring at one capable of resisting the ham-fisted control techniques currently in place to keep us bottled up behind pay-walls, app-stores and, most importantly, hub and server connectivity.

    Bandwidth so wide it means peer-to-peer networks so fast we won’t need sites like YouTube or Periscope to do citizen journalism. Deplatforming will become harder and harder. Decentralized data storage on blockchains which they can’t hack, etc.

    And that’s what truly scares these people. What happens when the net itself becomes so decentralized they won’t be able to pick up a phone and take you offline?

    As always, regulators and generals like John Bolton are fighting the last war. And if history tells us anything those people always lose.

    *  *  *

    Please support the production of independent and alternative political and financial commentary by joining my Patreon and subscribing to the Gold Goats ‘n Guns Investment Newsletter for just $12/month.

  • Visualizing The Snowball Of Global Government Debt

    Over the last five years, markets have pushed concerns about debt under the rug.

    But, while economic growth and record-low interest rates have made it easy to service existing government debt, Visual Capitalist’s Jeff Desjardins points out that it’s also created a situation where government debt has grown in to over $63 trillion in absolute terms.

    The global economic tide can change fast, and in the event of a recession or rapidly rising interest rates, debt levels could come back into the spotlight very quickly.

    THE DEBT SNOWBALL

    Today’s visualization comes to us from HowMuch.net and it rolls the world’s countries into a “snowball” of government debt, colored and arranged by debt-to-GDP ratios. The data itself comes from the IMF’s most recent October 2018 update.

    Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

    The structure of the visualization is apt, because debt can accumulate in an unsustainable way if governments are not proactive. This situation can create a vicious cycle, where mounting debt can start hampering growth, making the debt ultimately harder to pay off.

    Here are the countries with the most debt on the books:

    Note: Small economies (GDP under $10 billion) are excluded in this table, such as Cabo Verde and Barbados

    Japan and Greece are the most indebted countries in the world, with debt-to-GDP ratios of 237.6% and 181.8% respectively. Meanwhile, the United States sits in the #8 spot with a 105.2% ratio, and recent Treasury estimates putting the national debt at $22 trillion.

    LIGHT SNOW

    On the opposite spectrum, here are the 10 jurisdictions that have incurred less debt relative to the size of their economies:

    Note: Small economies (GDP under $10 billion) are excluded in this table, such as Timor-Leste and Solomon Islands

    Macao and Hong Kong – both special administrative regions (SARs) in China – have virtually zero debt on the books, while the official country with the lowest debt is Brunei (2.8%).

  • "The People" Know What They Want And Just Might Get It – Good And Hard

    Authored by James George Jatras via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    A survey of nations in what was once known quaintly as the Free World shows some of them engaged in what could best be described as a cold civil war.

    Such a condition is inherently unstable. One possible future is one where the cold conflict becomes hot with unforeseeable consequences. Another is that one side successfully represses the other before violence reaches a certain threshold.

    Now before we go any further, let’s make one thing clear. Whatever the country and its specific ills, we can be sure that Vladimir Putin is the culprit. According to Stephen Collinson of CNN (“Another good day for Putin as turmoil grips US and UK”):

    ‘In London, Theresa May on Tuesday suffered the worst defeat in the modern parliamentary era by a prime minister, as lawmakers shot down her Brexit deal with the European Union by a staggering 432 votes to 202.

    ‘The United States, meanwhile, remains locked in its longest-ever government shutdown, which is now entering its 26th day, is nowhere near ending and is the culmination of two years of whirling political chaos sparked by President Donald Trump.

    ‘It’s hard to believe that two such robust democracies, long seen by the rest of the world as beacons of stability, have dissolved into such bitter civic dysfunction and seem unmoored from their previous governing realities. [ … ]

    ‘The result is that Britain and the United States are all but ungovernable on the most important questions that confront both nations.

    ‘That’s music to Putin’s ears.

    ‘The Russian leader has made disrupting liberal democracies a core principle of his near two-decade rule, as he seeks to avenge the fall of the Soviet empire, which he experienced as a heartbroken KGB agent in East Germany.

    ‘Russia has been accused of meddling in both the Brexit vote and the US election in 2016 — the critical events that fomented the current crisis of the West.’

    It isn’t exactly clear how the “meddling” of which the coryphaeus of the Kremlin is merely “accused” managed to entice Theresa May into botching (or sabotaging) Brexit talks or to embolden Donald Trump into finally standing his ground on his top campaign pledge. Even Collinson admits that folks in the US and UK may have had something to do with the ruckus: “Supporters of Trump in the US and Brexit in Britain see their revolts as uprisings against distant or unaccountable leaders who no longer represent them or share their values.”

    Harrumph! Why should anyone care what the great unwashed think about accountability or values? What matters, say “skeptics” like Collinson, is that the proles’ getting uppity might be “deeply corrosive to the international political architecture that has prevailed for over 70 years.” Let’s get our priorities straight!

    While Britain and the US are entertaining distractions, the current main feature is the jacquerie going on in France. To be sure, many wonder if les gilets jaunes are a genuine, grassroots rebellion of ordinary Frenchmen, or some kind of Astroturf comparable to “color revolutions” that western governments and their accomplices like George Soros have sponsored in many countries. While there is some evidence of agents provocateurs (the expression is French, after all) working for the Emmanuel Macron regime – can we start using that word now, like “Assad regime,” “Putin regime,” etc.? – and minor involvement of groups like Antifa committing vandalism with an aim to discredit the yellow vests, the definitive attestation of authenticity was pronounced by world-class poseur and shill for plutocracy and warmongering, Bernard-Henri Lévy: “It’s a real social movement, but it’s one driven by sad, mortifying, and destructive forces.”

    Any movement Lévy calls sad, mortifying, and destructive – that’s French for “deplorable” – can’t be all bad, especially with some monarchists involved. It’s rather ironic, though, given that barely a year ago some were comparing vain little Macron to Napoleon.

    What is perhaps most detestable to bien pensants like Collinson and Lévy is that the social basis of the yellow vests is readily identifiable. They’re who we used to call simply French working people. As geographer Christopher Guilluy describes in Spiked:

    ‘Paris creates enough wealth for the whole of France, and London does the same in Britain. But you cannot build a society around this. The gilets jaunes is a revolt of the working classes who live in these places.

    ‘They tend to be people in work, but who don’t earn very much, between 1000€ and 2000€ per month. Some of them are very poor if they are unemployed. Others were once middle-class. What they all have in common is that they live in areas where there is hardly any work left. They know that even if they have a job today, they could lose it tomorrow and they won’t find anything else.

    ‘Not only does peripheral France fare badly in the modern economy, it is also culturally misunderstood by the elite. … One illustration of this cultural divide is that most modern, progressive social movements and protests are quickly endorsed by celebrities, actors, the media and the intellectuals. But none of them approve of the gilets jaunes. Their emergence has caused a kind of psychological shock to the cultural establishment. It is exactly the same shock that the British elites experienced with the Brexit vote and that they are still experiencing now, three years later.

    ‘The Brexit vote had a lot to do with culture, too, I think. It was more than just the question of leaving the EU. Many voters wanted to remind the political class that they exist. That’s what French people are using the gilets jaunes for – to say we exist. We are seeing the same phenomenon in populist revolts across the world. [ … ]

    ‘The Parisian economy needs executives and qualified professionals. It also needs workers, predominantly immigrants, for the construction industry and catering et cetera. Business relies on this very specific demographic mix. The problem is that ‘the people’ outside of this still exist. In fact, ‘Peripheral France’ actually encompasses the majority of French people. [ … ]

    Think of the ‘deplorables’ evoked by Hillary Clinton. There is a similar view of the working class in France and Britain. They are looked upon as if they are some kind of Amazonian tribe. The problem for the elites is that it is a very big tribe.

    ‘The middle-class reaction to the yellow vests has been telling. Immediately, the protesters were denounced as xenophobes, anti-Semites and homophobes. The elites present themselves as anti-fascist and anti-racist but this is merely a way of defending their class interests. It is the only argument they can muster to defend their status, but it is not working anymore.

    ‘Now the elites are afraid. For the first time, there is a movement which cannot be controlled through the normal political mechanisms. The gilets jaunes didn’t emerge from the trade unions or the political parties. It cannot be stopped. There is no ‘off’ button. Either the intelligentsia will be forced to properly acknowledge the existence of these people, or they will have to opt for a kind of soft totalitarianism.’

    Unfortunately, “soft totalitarianism” is not out of the question, whether in France or other countries in which populism threatens to upend the elites’ neoliberal gravy train and all the social and moral baggage that comes with it. Guilluy sees the revolt in France as beyond control by the “normal political mechanisms.” That may be true, at least in France, at least for now.

    But the US may be another story. At the end of this week all Washington was atwitter with an alleged bombshell (relax, in the US legacy media every other story is a “bombshell,” especially if it involves dirt on Trump) that former Trump attorney, “fixer,” and alleged literal bagman Michael Cohen had actually been instructed by his erstwhile client to commit perjury. Unlike much else thrown at Trump, this story (reported in Buzzfeed, which by total coincidence played a key early role in publicizing the US-UK Deep’s State’s “dirty dossier”) would constitute an impeachable crime. In an extraordinary move, Grand Inquisitor Robert Mueller released a statement through a spokesman indicating the report was “not accurate” but not specifying in what regard. As of this writing Buzzfeed stands by the story and asked for clarification by Mueller’s office, which may or may not be forthcoming.

    Whatever the fate of this report, make no mistake: there will be more of the same, an endless parade of themThe fact that such reports might turn out not to be true makes little difference. Their existence is sufficient to keep Trump constantly on the defensive pending his removalone way or another.

    Elizabethtown College Professor Emeritus Paul Gottfried describes how grandees of the GOP are already getting set to restore the status quo ante in collusion with their nominal Democrat adversaries once the interloper is gone:

    ‘… in the next few years, a working alliance will develop between regular Democrats—particularly New Democrats from red states—and the milquetoast Republican establishment. … Such an alliance would reflect electoral reality, as the Right seems to be growing weaker, not stronger, since the election of Trump two years ago. The ever ambitious Mitt Romney fired on his party’s leader prematurely, but his political instincts may be right after all. The GOP is likely to move leftward because that’s where a majority of the voters are, and if this happens to Trump’s detriment, Romney will hope to pick up the pieces. Neoconservatives and much of the authorized conservative movement would no doubt welcome the Utah senator or someone like him as the kind of “conservative” they could work with were he to run for the presidency.

    ‘If the elections since 2018 have shown anything, it’s this: blue electoral areas have remained quite solid, while traditionally red ones, even in the Deep South, are up for grabs. That’s because the party perceived as being further to the left has benefited from its growing coalition. If there’s another explanation, I can’t seem to find it. It would not be unusual to have two national parties that are recognizably on the left contending for power. The parties now running the major Western European countries are all to the left of our present GOP.

    ‘In a possible alliance, the GOP, as the ideologically and electorally weaker side, will readily cooperate with establishment Democrats. They will undoubtedly find such shared concerns as confronting Putin “the thug” and supporting the Likud Party in Israel. They should have no trouble reaching an agreement on giving amnesty to all non-criminal illegal immigrants once Trump is no longer on the scene.

    ‘There is no reason to think that this political shift won’t continue. We are looking at a process that’s been brought about by college educators, the culture industry, the mass media, and mass immigration, and the momentum may be extremely hard to reverse or even to stop. America’s future won’t necessarily be British Columbia’s, whose provincial legislature features only parties of the left and which hasn’t elected a conservative to a provincial office since the early 1990s.’

    The celebrated Sage of Baltimore, H. L. Mencken observed that “Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.” This begs the question, though, of who the “common people” are. In contrast to France, where Guilluy’s “peripheral France” is still a majority of the French population, US elites in both parties are looking to the day when America’s “deplorables” are a minority (which we already may be) that will continue to shrink. Anyone who might object to ethnic and moral replacement is clearly a racist and “white supremacist,” comparable to France’s “xenophobes, anti-Semites and homophobes.” In the not too distant future, Guilluy’s “normal political mechanisms” may be more than sufficient to handle what’s left of a disappearing America.

    If Trump is going to build that Wallhe’d better do it damn fast.

  • Hong Kong Housing Market Enters Correction Territory

    After notching its longest streak of declining prices since at least 2016, what was formerly the world’s hottest housing market has officially entered correction territory, as a single interest rate hike by monetary authorities (which prompted HSBC, one of the most active banks in the region, to raise its prime lending rate) has gone a long way toward offering some badly needed relief for prospective homebuyers in the city’s middle class.

    HK

    According to Bloomberg, secondary home prices in Hong Kong have shed 9.8% from their August peak to hit their lowest level since February 2018.

    Housing

    Though one broker quoted by Bloomberg carefully insisted that, while “correction” was an appropriate word to describe what is happening in the market, calling it a “collapse” would be a bridge too far.

    “You can say it’s a correction with a 10 percent drop in prices, though it’s not a collapse,” said Patrick Wong, a real estate analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence.

    Particularly because a looming vacancy tax trade-war related volatility suggest that the market still has another 5% to 10% to go until it bottoms out (then again, considering that Hong Kong is the world’s most expensive housing market, a chasm between bids and asks could push it even lower, particularly as anxious government officials actively try to pull the rug out from under robust prices.

    Various factors have combined to put downward pressure on home values, from worsening sentiment due to volatile markets and the U.S.-China trade war, to interest-rate rises and a looming vacancy tax. Prices still probably have about 5 to 10 percent further to drop, Wong said.

    The dip has been welcomed by would-be home buyers trying to get on the property ladder as well as government officials concerned about affordability. The question is how long the softness will last, particularly considering demand is still strong and there are growing signs the U.S. Federal Reserve may pause its upward trajectory.

    For what it’s worth, Citigroup has prices bottoming in the next two months as buyers swoop in to take advantage of relatively good deals; Morgan Stanley expects prices to rise 2% this year for similar reasons.

  • The US Military Is Winning… No, Really, It Is!

    Authored by Nick Turse via TomDispatch.com,

    A Simple Equation Proves That the U.S. Armed Forces Have Triumphed in the War on Terror…

    4,000,000,029,057. Remember that number. It’s going to come up again later.

    But let’s begin with another number entirely: 145,000 — as in, 145,000 uniformed soldiers striding down Washington’s Pennsylvania Avenue. That’s the number of troops who marched down that very street in May 1865 after the United States defeated the Confederate States of America. Similar legions of rifle-toting troops did the same after World War I ended with the defeat of Germany and its allies in 1918. And Sherman tanks rolling through the urban canyons of midtown Manhattan? That followed the triumph over the Axis in 1945. That’s what winning used to look like in America — star-spangled, soldier-clogged streets and victory parades.

    Enthralled by a martial Bastille Day celebration while visiting French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris in July 2017, President Trump called for just such a parade in Washington.  After its estimated cost reportedly ballooned from $10 million to as much as $92 million, the American Legion weighed in. That veterans association, which boasts 2.4 million members, issued an August statement suggesting that the planned parade should be put on hold “until such time as we can celebrate victory in the War on Terrorism and bring our military home.” Soon after, the president announced that he had canceled the parade and blamed local Washington officials for driving up the costs (even though he was evidently never briefed by the Pentagon on what its price tag might be).

    The American Legion focused on the fiscal irresponsibility of Trump’s proposed march, but its postponement should have raised an even more significant question: What would “victory” in the war on terror even look like? What, in fact, constitutes an American military victory in the world today? Would it in any way resemble the end of the Civil War, or of the war to end all wars, or of the war that made that moniker obsolete? And here’s another question: Is victory a necessary prerequisite for a military parade?

    The easiest of those questions to resolve is the last one and the American Legion should already know the answer. Members of that veterans group played key roles in a mammoth “We Support Our Boys in Vietnam” parade in New York City in 1967 and in a 1973 parade in that same city honoringveterans of that war. Then, 10 years after the last U.S. troops snuck out of South Vietnam — abandoning their allies and scrambling aboard helicopters as Saigon fell — the Big Apple would host yet another parade honoring Vietnam veterans, reportedly the largest such celebration in the city’s history. So, quite obviously, winning a war isn’t a prerequisite for a winning parade.

    And that’s only one of many lessons the disastrous American War in Vietnam still offers us. More salient perhaps are those that highlight the limits of military might and destructive force on this planet or that focus on the ability of North Vietnam, a “little fourth-rate” country — to quote Henry Kissinger, the national security advisor of that moment — to best a superpower that had previously (with much assistance) defeated Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan at the same time. The Vietnam War — and Kissinger — provide a useful lens through which to examine the remaining questions about victory and what it means today, but more on that later.

    For the moment, just remember: 4,000,000,029,057, Vietnam War, Kissinger.

    Peace in Our Time… or Some Time… or No Time

    Now, let’s take a moment to consider the ur-conflict of the war on terror, Afghanistan, where the U.S. began battling the Taliban in October 2001. America’s victory there came with lightning speed. The next year, President George W. Bush announced that the group had been “defeated.” In 2004, the commander-in-chief reported that the Taliban was “no longer in existence.” Yet, somehow, they were. By 2011, General David Petraeus, then commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, claimed that his troops had “reversed the momentum of the Taliban.” Two years later, then-commander General Joseph Dunford spoke of “the inevitability of our success” there.

    Last August, President Trump unveiled his “Strategy in Afghanistan and South Asia.” Its “core pillar” was “a shift from a time-based approach to one based on conditions”; in other words, the “arbitrary timetables” for withdrawal of the Obama years were out. “We will push onward to victory with power in our hearts,” President Trump decreed. “America’s enemies must never know our plans or believe they can wait us out.”

    The president also announced that he was putting that war squarely in the hands of the military. “Micromanagement from Washington, D.C., does not win battles,” he announced. “They are won in the field drawing upon the judgment and expertise of wartime commanders and frontline soldiers acting in real time, with real authority, and with a clear mission to defeat the enemy.” The man given that authority was General John Nicholson who had, in fact, been running the American war there since 2016. The general was jubilant and within months agreed that the conflict had “turned the corner” (something, by the way, that Obama-era Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta also claimed — in 2012).

    Today, almost 17 years after the war began, two years after Nicholson took the reins, one year after Trump articulated his new plan, victory in any traditional sense is nowhere in sight. Despite spending around $900 billion in Afghanistan, as the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction determined earlier this year, “between 2001 and 2017, U.S. government efforts to stabilize insecure and contested areas in Afghanistan mostly failed.” According to a July 30, 2018, report by that same inspector general, the Taliban was by then contesting control of or controlled about 44% of that country, while Afghan government control and influence over districts had declined by about 16% since Nicholson’s predecessor, General John Campbell, was in command.

    And that was before, last month, the Taliban launched a large-scale attack on a provincial capital, Ghazni, a strategically important city, and held it for five days, while taking control of much of the province itself. Finally driven from the city, the Taliban promptly overran a military base in Baghlan Province during its withdrawal. And that was just one day after taking another Afghan military base. In fact, for the previous two months, the Taliban had overrun government checkpoints and outposts on a near-daily basis. And keep in mind that the Taliban is now only a fraction of the story. The U.S. set out to defeat it and al-Qaeda in 2001. Today, Washington faces exponentially more terror groups in Afghanistan — 21 in all, including an imported franchise from the Iraq War front, ISIS, that grew larger during Nicholson’s tenure.

    Given this seemingly dismal state of affairs, you might wonder what happened to Nicholson. Was he cashiered? Fired, Apprentice-style? Quietly ushered out of Afghanistan in disgrace? Hardly. Like the 15 U.S. commanders who preceded him, the four-star general simply rotated out and, at his final press conference from the war zone late last month, was nothing if not upbeat.

    “I believe the South Asia Strategy is the right approach. And now we see that approach delivering progress on reconciliation that we had not seen previously,” he announced. “We’ve also seen a clear progression in the Taliban’s public statements, from their 14 February letter to the American people to the recent Eid al-Adha message, where [Taliban leader] Emir Hibatullah acknowledged for the first time that negotiations will, quote, ‘ensure an end to the war,’ end quote.”

    In the event that you missed those statements from a chastened Taliban on the threshold of begging for peace, let me quote from the opening of the latter missive, issued late last month:

    “This year Eid­ al­-Adha approaches us as our Jihadi struggle against the American occupation is on the threshold of victory due to the help of Allah Almighty. The infidel invading forces have lost all will of combat, their strategy has failed, advanced technology and military equipment rendered useless, [the] sedition and corruption­-sowing group defeated, and the arrogant American generals have been compelled to bow to the Jihadic greatness of the Afghan nation.”

    And those conciliatory statements of peace and reconciliation touted by Nicholson? The Taliban says that in order to end “this long war” the “lone option is to end the occupation of Afghanistan and nothing more.”

    In June, the 17th American nominated to take command of the war, Lieutenant General Scott Miller, appeared before the Senate Armed Services Committee where Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) grilled him on what he would do differently in order to bring the conflict to a conclusion. “I cannot guarantee you a timeline or an end date,” was Miller’s confident reply.

    Did the senators then send him packing? Hardly. He was, in fact, easily confirmed and starts work this month. Nor is there any chance Congress will use its power of the purse to end the war. The 2019 budget request for U.S. operations in Afghanistan — topping out at $46.3 billion — will certainly be approved.

    #Winning

    All of this seeming futility brings us back to the Vietnam War, Kissinger, and that magic number, 4,000,000,029,057 — as well as the question of what an American military victory would look like today. It might surprise you, but it turns out that winning wars is still possible and, perhaps even more surprising, the U.S. military seems to be doing just that.

    Let me explain.

    In Vietnam, that military aimed to “out-guerrilla the guerrilla.” It never did and the United States suffered a crushing defeat. Henry Kissinger — who presided over the last years of that conflict as national security advisor and then secretary of state — provided his own concise take on one of the core tenets of asymmetric warfare: “The conventional army loses if it does not win. The guerrilla wins if he does not lose.” Perhaps because that eternally well-regarded but hapless statesman articulated it, that formula was bound — like so much else he touched — to crash and burn.

    In this century, the United States has found a way to turn Kissinger’s martial maxim on its head and so rewrite the axioms of armed conflict. This redefinition can be proved by a simple equation:

    0 + 1,000,000,000,000 + 17 +17 + 23,744 + 3,000,000,000,000 + 5 + 5,200 + 74 = 4,000,000,029,057

    Expressed differently, the United States has not won a major conflict since 1945; has a trillion-dollar national security budget; has had 17 military commanders in the last 17 years in Afghanistan, a country plagued by 23,744 “security incidents” (the most ever recorded) in 2017 alone; has spent around $3 trillion, primarily on that war and the rest of the war on terror, including the ongoing conflict in Iraq, which then-defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld swore, in 2002, would be over in only “five days or five weeks or five months,” but where approximately 5,000 U.S. troops remain today; and yet 74% of the American people still express high confidence in the U.S. military.

    Let the math and the implications wash over you for a moment. Such a calculus definitively disproves the notion that “the conventional army loses if it does not win.” It also helps answer the question of victory in the war on terror. It turns out that the U.S. military, whose budget and influence in Washington have only grown in these years, now wins simply by not losing — a multi-trillion-dollar conventional army held to the standards of success once applied only to under-armed, under-funded guerilla groups.

    Unlike in the Vietnam War years, three presidents and the Pentagon, unbothered by fiscal constraints, substantive congressional opposition, or a significant antiwar movement, have been effectively pursuing this strategy, which requires nothing more than a steady supply of troops, contractors, and other assorted camp followers; an endless parade of Senate-sanctioned commanders; and an annual outlay of hundreds of billions of dollars. By these standards, Donald Trump’s open-ended, timetable-free “Strategy in Afghanistan and South Asia” may prove to be the winningest war plan ever. As he described it:

    “From now on, victory will have a clear definition: attacking our enemies, obliterating ISIS, crushing al-Qaeda, preventing the Taliban from taking over Afghanistan, and stopping mass terror attacks against America before they emerge.”

    Think about that for a moment. Victory’s definition begins with “attacking our enemies” and ends with the prevention of possible terror attacks. Let me reiterate: “victory” is defined as “attacking our enemies.” Under President Trump’s strategy, it seems, every time the U.S. bombs or shells or shoots at a member of one of those 20-plus terror groups in Afghanistan, the U.S. is winning or, perhaps, has won. And this strategy is not specifically Afghan-centric. It can easily be applied to American warzones in the Middle East and Africa — anywhere, really.

    Decades after the end of the Vietnam War, the U.S. military has finally solved the conundrum of how to “out-guerrilla the guerrilla.” And it couldn’t have been simpler. You just adopt the same definition of victory. As a result, a conventional army — at least the U.S. military — now loses only if it stops fighting. So long as unaccountable commanders wage benchmark-free wars without congressional constraint, the United States simply cannot lose. You can’t argue with the math. Call it the rule of 4,000,000,029,057.

    That calculus and that sum also prove, quite clearly, that America’s beleaguered commander-in-chief has gotten a raw deal on his victory parade. With apologies to the American Legion, the U.S. military is now — under the new rules of warfare — triumphant and deserves the type of celebration proposed by President Trump. After almost two decades of warfare, the armed forces have lowered the bar for victory to the level of their enemy, the Taliban. What was once the mark of failure for a conventional army is now the benchmark for success. It’s a remarkable feat and deserving, at the very least, of furious flag-waving, ticker tape, and all the age-old trappings of victory.

  • Extremely Disturbing Footage Of Deadly Mexico Pipeline Explosion Surfaces

    Extremely disturbing footage of the aftermath of a giant fireball that burst from an illegal gasoline pipeline tap near a small town north of Mexico City has surfaced online.

    As we reported earlier, at least 66 people have been confirmed dead after a geyser of gasoline ignited at the site of the illegal tap, instantly engulfing the surrounding area in flames.

    Reports from the scene described piles of charred bodies so badly burned that responders struggled to separate and identify the individuals.

    In the video, people are seen throwing themselves on the grass and in water to try and extinguish the flames.

    The horrific incident took place as locals had gathered around a ruptured Pemex pipeline to collect the fuel that was spilling out. The company blamed the fire on thieves drilling into the pipe.

     

     

     

     

     

  • BofA Sees 3 Paths For The Market: Stairs, Escalator, Roller-Coaster

    Among the most memorable events of 2018 is that one of closest correlations across major asset classes – that between stocks and bonds – broke down, prompting Deutsche Bank strategist Torsten Slok to exclaim that “something is wrong.”

    “What is safe to say is that there is something driving equities lower, which is not impacting rates. Or there is something keeping long rates high, which is not impacting equities,” Slok mused in a note in late December, discussed here.

    Slok also predicted that anyone expecting this divergence to collapse shortly may be disappointed since the breakdown of the positive correlation between stocks and bond yields may not just be a temporary problem as the federal government is projected to notch annual trillion dollar deficits for a “very long time, prompting traders to demand even higher bond yields in the future regardless if stocks underperform.

    And yet, the breakdown of the bond/equity correlation appears to already be over because as Bank of America observes in its latest weekly Rates report, this dynamic once again changed in the last two months as markets repriced the growth outlook and equity markets sold off, the belly of the curve (5y-7y) led the Treasury market rally, in sharp contrast to the first three quarters of 2018. As a result, 5y-30y curve became increasingly directional with equity markets during risk-off moves (Chart 2).

    What prompted this “renormalization” in one of the historically stongest market correlations?

    According to BofA, the heart of the concern is global growth. As a result, headlines on central bank dovishness and trade talk progress only provide temporary relief and are discounted by rates investors. By the same logic, investor risk appetite may only be altered materially when US and China data stand on solid footing.

    This change in risk appetite has been reflected in flow data as shown in Chart 3 above. Over the course of the Q4 risk-off move, mutual fund flows shifted from the front-end to the long end, similar to the behavior in January 2016. As such, until the market receives new information on growth outlook, for better or worse, Bank of America notes that both the Fed and the markets may need to be patient.

    Which brings us to the key question that needs to be answered to determine future asset returns heading into 2019, namely “how much” and “how fast” the US economy is going to slow down, as opposed to the “if” question.

    Unfortunately, according to Bank of America, we have to be patient to get a clearer sense of the above question but the next few weeks will be critical as Q4 earnings are released from corporate America and January data start to come in.

    As a result, BofA sees three paths for the market:

    • The stairs scenario: while there have been scary prints in global data, there is still a possibility that the US economy is weathering the global slowdown just fine. At least some of the most reliable indicators for predicting a recession are still far from stress levels. The flipside is that if what we’ve seen so far is a bad dream, the pause that the Fed is currently engineering may be short lived once we are back on track later this year. In this case, supply pressure would have a much bigger impact than in 2018, and a belly led sell-off could reverse the long end steepening we’ve seen, and the supply pressure could really kick in; the result would be a rerun of the late summer of 2018 when rising yields sparked an equity slump.
    • The escalator scenario: Irrespective of the ongoing sharp bull market rally in stocks, BofA believes that it is increasingly likely that the markets will experience a more volatile H1. As discussed above, while the rest of the world has been dealing with growth roadblocks all of last year, asset prices in the US only re-priced recently. Meanwhile, according to time-zone analysis from BofA, the Treasury rally since Q4 2018 showed that almost the entire 50bp move in 10y UST was done during US hours, reflecting domestic investors pricing in a weaker growth outlook. The silver lining is that while data continues to be sluggish, markets and sentiment were able to at least push central bankers and politicians to be more accommodative, leaving the outlook for H2 a little brighter (for now).
    • The roller-coaster scenario: the economy would be a mess in this case, which however is far from reality at least based on recent data; should this scenario materialize the simple call would be to buy bonds no questions asked.

    And since the observations above reflect the views of BofA’s rates team, they conclude that without new information on data, earnings, and policies, both rates and curves are likely to stay range-bound, adding that of the scenarios list above, the first one would cause the most positioning pain as investors unwind 5y-30y curve steepeners and short vol positions in the front end (the Fed is not only willing to be patient, they are also willing to be flexible). Scenario two is the most likely according to BofA, with rates continuing to follow risky assets, with the belly leading the moves.

    Eventually, as more economic data emerges and solidifes the case for either an accelerating slowdown or a rebound, the Fed will have to react. As long as the Fed is on hold, BofA is confident that the time for a structural steepener is not ripe, and even though steepeners were the trade in vogue in recent weeks, 2y-10y has remained relatively flat. The bank further notes that “the recent 5y-30y steepening is a reflection of growth concerns and haven bid, rather than the beginning of a cutting cycle. “

    Finally, if the economic climate improves and the hiking cycle resumes, while stocks will likely resume their slide, the 5y-30y should continue to flatten; alternatively, if the economy hits a brick wall and there is a need for the Fed to cut rates, 2y-10y curve catch up to 5y-30y.

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Today’s News 19th January 2019

  • The Price Of Empire

    Authored by Umair Haque via Eudaimonia & Co,

    Why America and Britain Are Self-Destructing (And What the World Can Learn From it)

    It’s a striking fact of today’s world that the two rich societies in shocking, swift, sharp decline are America and Britain. Nowhere else in the world, for example, are real income, life expectancy, happiness, and trust all plummeting, apart from maybe Venezuela (No, “but at least we’re not Venezuela!” is not the bar to aim for, my friends.) 

    Their downfall is, of course, a self-inflicted catastrophe. But the interesting question is: why? And what does it tell us about what it takes to prosper and thrive in the 21st century, which is something that America and Britain clearly aren’t doing, and maybe aren’t capable of doing?

    Here’s an equally curious observation. America and Britain aren’t just any countries. They are the former hegemons of the world’s most powerful empires. Britain, until the first half of the 20th century, and America, picking up where Britain left off. Is this just a strange cosmic coincidence — that it is the two greatest empires of the most recent past who are the ones seemingly most incapable of meeting the challenges of the 21st century? There aren’t coincidences that great, my friends. Such tides of history always whisper lessons to be learned. What is this one trying to urgently teach us?

    That there is a price to empire. A grave and ruinous one. And that price has grown over the centuries  –  so high that now, it is not worth paying anymore.

    Let me explain what I mean — because it is not just about spending too much money and grasping too high. Not at all. It is about the kind of a place and people such a country ends up limited to being — and perhaps can then never really easily outgrow.

    To be a great empire, you must also be a certain kind of culture, society, place— a people with a certain set of values, a certain kind of attitudes. You must cherish control and prize possession over humanity and empathy and wisdom. You must value brutal competition above all else — and train your children to be little warriors, basically, whether tossing them into seas, like Spartans, or making them do “active shooter drills.” You must be domineering and controlling and vengeful, feared, not loved — you must come to prize anger and rage as the only true or worthy emotions in life, not, say, intelligence gentleness, kindness, or happiness. The primary objective of your institutions, the aspiration of your best and brightest, must be subjugating others, instead of lifting them up — after all, empires are made of subjects, not equals. You must instill in people an admiration for violence — since empires are run with bullets, whether fired from drones or armies. Your science and art and so forth must be dedicated, fundamentally, to the proposition that somehow, you are the natural masters of the world which is your dominion — no matter how they claim to admire freedom and equality and truth. You cannot plan for any kind of long term good — your primary motive is simply to acquire, colonize, plunder, take the next possession.

    In other words, to be an empire, you must cultivate the qualities of cruelty, of selfishness, of greed, of tribalism, socially. Of materialism and acquisitiveness and conformity to greed and selfishness, mentally. You must encourage the rise of supremacy and triumphalism and bigotry and misogyny, culturally. You must attach to all human life just one purpose: not happiness, or belonging, or the growth of meaning and purpose, but material gain, whether it’s measured in colonies, protectorates, slaves, bodies, or GDP. Thus, the overarching organizing principle of your entire empire must be just this: the strong survive, and the weak perish. Everyone — even the weak — must come to buy into this principle, treasure it, cheer it, applaud it — even when they themselves are the ones being destroyed. Just think of how Donald Trump embodies all those values to a comical, disgusting degree.

    How else are you to run an empire? How else are you to convince people to go out there and conquer the world for you — instead of happily tilling their fields and loving their children, taking fields and children from others? You can’t do it without accomplishing most or all of the above. Every empire from Rome to Egypt to America to Britain has needed to build these ramparts and beams of the human mind and spirit to be an empire. Empires are Darwinian things, little pecking orders of humanity — what they are not is democracies, really, though they might be so in name, they cannot be in spirit, in intellect, in sentiment, in truth.

    Now. Let’s observe the state of America and Britain today — and then connect the dots. What’s really curious about them? Just think of Trumpism and Brexit as you read the next paragraph.

    These are societies which cannot brook the idea of being equals with any other. Isn’t that Trumpism and Brexit are really about — we must be number one? They are societies which cannot cooperate with any other — or even cooperate amongst themselves. They are societies which cannot plan for the long term. Societies which seem to revel in both their cruelty and their ignorance, while the world looks on, aghast. They prefer being Darwinian places to being humane ones. They would rather build walls than build schools and hospitals, minds and bodies. They are societies which cannot tolerate the idea that they do not still reign supreme — and the moment their supremacy is threatened, bang! They lash out even at their closest neighbours, allies, friends, and partners.

    Don’t these two lists seem weirdly, eerily, strikingly similar to you — the list of the qualities it takes to be an empire, and the list of savage, intractable problems afflicting Britain and America, which have caused them to crater into extreme ruin? That’s not a coincidence either. It is cause and effect. Let me put that more clearly.

    America and Britain built the world’s two biggest, most powerful empires — ever, period. Sure, America didn’t call countries it’s colonies — it said (LOL) that it “liberated” them. What that means is that they effectively became colonies of American style predatory capitalism (take a look at Puerto Rico — or Iraq.) Just a century ago, half the world was a British colony — I don’t need to tell you that story.

    Now, the problem with a colonial mentality, attitude, society, way of life is this. What happens when you run out of stuff to colonize? After all, sooner or later, you’re going to run out of tempting frontiers, helpless savages, Manhattans to trade for beads, fish in the ocean, and so on, right? That day might seem a long way away — but it has to come, after all. Well, then, my friends, you are screwed — if you can’t give up the colonial mindset, then you will have to colonize yourself. What do I mean by this curious phrase, “colonize yourself”? I mean that you will have to exploit your own people the very same way that you exploited others before. You will have to teach them to exploit each other, just the same way that they once exploited poorer people of different “colors” and creeds, when there are no more of those strangers in new frontiers left to conquer, no more fresh mountains left to plunder.

    And that is exactly what happened in America and Britain. It’s most obvious in America. When there was no one else left to exploit — first it was slaves, then it was subhuman blacks kept segregated, then it was various countries who were “liberated” by war for their oil and cheap labour — bang! Americans were told to turn on themselves. They obeyed. What else did they know? That is what they’d been told all their lives — that this mindset of exploitation and violence is good. So off the American went to work as a manager at an HMO, where his job was to deny people healthcare, or as a minor-league corporate droid, where his job was to find cleverer ways to jack up profits he never even saw a larger share of.

    (It happened in Britain, too — only in a roundabout way. Though Britain tried to overcome empire’s hangover, by building great public institutions, like the NHS, in the end, the values of greed and selfishness and hate, the need to be supreme, won out. But all that meant was that Brits began to exploit each other. That is not just what Brexit clearly shows — but its root causes, Brits getting poorer for a decade or two, as they turned on each other.)

    The lesson is as simple as it is crystal clear. Empires require colonial mindsets. Attitudes of materialism, selfishness, greed, cruelty, domination. But what happens an empire runs out of things to colonize? Do you see any countries in the world left to colonize easily? I don’t. What happens when a country that used to be an empire runs out of things to colonize is this: it colonizes itself. Bang! That is the story of American collapse and Britain’s stunning decline in one sentence.

    You see, giving up something like a colonial mindset is not easy. It is addictive, just like any easy pleasure. It’s much easier to suppose that my prosperity comes from taking yours, at the point of a gun — whether or not I call it “liberation” — than it does from recognizing you as a human being, doing the hard work of lifting you up.

    But the truth is that is precisely where prosperity comes from: me lifting you up. Not me colonizing you. That is the greatest lesson of the 20th century. How do we know? From the nations which truly turned their backs on empire. Many other nations had empires, too — just not ones as great and strong. So perhaps they were easier to let go of. Or perhaps it was the great war and its horrors which taught them the lesson better. Still, nations like France, Germany, and Spain did a better job of letting the colonialist mindset go. After the war, Europe tried hard to build a new continent on a new attitude — wealth would not come from seizing it from others anymore, but from cooperating to lift one another up. What had the road of seizing wealth, life, prosperity from others ended in after all — but horror and ruin?

    But English speaking societies, it seems, never learned this lesson. There are days I wonder if they can. They are too wedded to their colonial mindset — attitudes of supremacy, of being-number-one, of not being able to treat anyone else as an equal, of an inability to cooperate, of anger as the primary emotion in life — to make any progress now, it seems to me. The English speaking countries probably won’t lead the world in the 21st century. That shouldn’t be controversial. They can barely manage themselves at this point. But the lesson, I think, cuts deep and true.

    The price of empire is that maturity, psychologically, socially, economically, culturally, becomes harder and harder, every day. Maturity beyond what, exactly? Beyond violence. Beyond stupidity. Beyond greed and selfishness and cruelty. You see, the Anglos of the world have never given up their strange love of and lust for all these things — whether it comes in the form of suddenly insulting their neighbours, building walls, starting needless wars, whether wars of trade or wars fought with missiles, drone-bombing children to death, or the subtler violence and greed of people taking their neighbours’ healthcare and jobs and savings away.

    But violence and greed and cruelty cannot lead anyone anymore to prosperity in the 21st century. There is nobody left to colonize and exploit left but yourself, your very own society, in a world which is out of easy frontiers and helpless peoples. Nobody’s trading Manhattans for beads anymore, are they? And so violence and greed is only left in one form: self-destruction. Funnily, ironically, foolishly, tragically, the only choice that English speaking world seem able to make anymore is self-destruction — because the problem is that empire’s price is an addiction to ruin in the first place, but in the end, there is no one to ruin but yourself.

  • Army Struggles To Reach Generation Z, Tries Recruiting At Video Game Tournaments 

    Army recruiters are having a challenging time convincing Americans born between 1995 and 2005 to sign up and serve. The situation is so dire that Army Recruiting Command has turned to e-Sports video game tournaments.

    “It is incredible, the amount of coverage that you get and the amount of the Z Gens that are watching these games,” Gen. Frank Muth, the head of Army Recruiting Command, told NPR.

    Sponsoring video game tournaments is an effort to boost recruitment after the Army fell short of its 76,500 recruitment goal by 6,500 people last year.

    “Calling the Z generation on the phone doesn’t work anymore,” Gen. Muth told NPR. “We’re really giving the power back to our recruiters to go on Twitter, to go on Twitch, to go on Instagram, and use that as a venue to start a dialogue with the Z generation.”

    NPR noted that a recent e-Sports tournament featured an Army recruiter as an announcer and went viral with more than 2 million views, adding that “Half [the views] were from people aged 17 to 24.”

    To further implement the strategy, the Army is now screening more than 4,000 applications from soldiers who want to play video games.

    Army Recruiting Command will select 30 of the service’s top gamers to be on the new Army e-Sports Team to compete in national gaming tournaments.

    Generation Z soldiers are part of this subculture, according to Sgt. 1st Class Christopher Jones, a noncommissioned officer overseeing the Army e-sports Team.

    “Soldiers are showing a want and desire to not only play gaming … but also be in competitive gaming, and we understand that is a really good connection to our target market,” he said.

    “These soldiers will actually be hand-selected, so what we are doing is grouping them together and — based upon the title and platform that they wish to compete in — having them scrimmage within those groups to find out who are the best we have.”

    Part of the screening process will include ensuring that candidates also meet Army physical fitness, height, and weight standards.

    “Those soldiers will be screened from there to make sure that not only can they compete, but [they] are the top-quality soldier that we are looking for in order to move here to Knox to compete,” Sgt. Jones said.

    “We want those soldiers, when they go to these events, to be able to articulate to the public.”

    The team of Army gamers will serve on 36-month rotations at Fort Knox and travel to tournaments around the country, supporting the Army’s recruitment efforts at gaming events.

    Gen. Muth is not sure that the Army can hit its recruitment goals for 2019. He told NPR, the e-Sports strategy could be the key to unlocking a new wave of future soldiers. 

    However, there is a problem: “Health-Risk Correlates of Video-Game Playing Among Adults” study shows that video gamers in America are overweight and depressed. It seems that the Army’s strategy in recruiting the younger generation at gaming events could backfire. 

  • Crypto Credibility (& Why Gold Makes Sense For Russia)

    Authored by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,

    Last Monday, there was a striking headline in the Daily Telegraph: “Russia looks to bitcoin to soften effects of US Sanctions”. The immediate impact on bitcoin’s price was minimal, though it did rise 4.2% later in the day, after Zerohedge picked up the story.

    The Telegraph’s source seemed credible. Vladislav Ginko is an economist at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, which is the training ground for Russia’s political and administrative elite, a Russian equivalent of France’s École Nationale d’Adminstration.Professor Ginko appears to be a firm believer in bitcoin and its technology, and he seems well-connected. But it is not a brand-new story. Earlier this month he tweeted the following:

    However, Professor Ginko perhaps should not be taken too seriously, being either a conspiracy theorist or perhaps a joker, as the following more recent tweet reveals:

    Putting this bizarre allegation to one side, he has reminded us that President Putin has expressed an interest in cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology. The point missed in Professor Ginko’s tweets is that one way to destabilise the dollar would be to encourage a new bull market in cryptocurrencies, which could be the strategic logic behind a Russian move. It is not, as implied by Professor Ginko, that bitcoin is about to take its place alongside Western currencies in Russia’s currency reserves. Furthermore, the idea that Russia is seriously considering adding $10bn of bitcoin to reserves does not ring true, given it would be more likely to quietly accumulate them first instead of boasting about an intention and paying higher prices.

    It may be just coincidence, but bitcoin’s vicious bear market broadly coincided with the US dollar’s recovery, which commenced only a month after bitcoin’s peak in December 2017. Recently, the dollar has shown signs of entering a new bear phase, in which case a negative correlation suggests bitcoin might begin to recover, and with other credible cryptocurrencies become to be seen as an alternative to the king of fiat.

    Cryptocurrencies have disappeared from most people’s radar screens. While public attention has drifted elsewhere, it is clear that professionals are still working on solutions to identify and control risks at a time of market quietness. These are the generic market conditions usually identified with the prospect of a renewed bull phase.

    Crypto criminal cleansing continues

    For the moment, it might too early to expect cryptocurrencies to be ready for a lasting revival. The 2017 bull market blow-off exposed excessive greed, signalling the start of a probable multi-year bear market, or even the end of the entire phenomenon. Over a thousand cryptocurrencies were in existence by early 2018, issued mostly by wannabe Satoshis. Today it is estimated there are over 1,600.

    In recent years exchanges and other service providers have been closed amid accusations of fraud and money-laundering. Freedom from national boundaries and the laws that go with them have undoubtedly contributed to criminal activity both real and imagined. On Monday this week, SlowMist, a Chinese-based blockchain security firm, reported suspected money-laundering in ethereum classic (ETC), in its newsfeed  reproduced below:

    ETC Network Is Abnormal, Large Transactions Suspected of Money Laundering 0735

    Monitored by China-based blockchain security firm SlowMist, there was a large amount of abnormal miners’ rewards on the ETC public chain in the early morning of Jan 14 (UTC+8). Further analysis revealed that the abnormal rewards resulted from the address starting with 0xb71ee622 that holds approximately 72,383 ETC. The address paid a huge transaction fee for a large number of transactions, and the large amount of high fees were taken by the miner’s address starting with 0x00473. The miner transferred out the mining revenue in real time, which is suspected of money laundering.

    The previous week, SlowMist got to the bottom of a rollback attack on ETC. Hackers deploy a rollback attack by resetting protocols to an earlier point in time, so they can alter a blockchain’s transaction history to clone cryptocurrency. SlowMist identified the exchanges involved and all of them have now returned the extra ETC, as declared in the following tweet on Wednesday, 16 January:

    It is worth noting that the detectives in this story are China-based, which illustrates how markets left to their own devices lead to responsible cooperative behaviour, irrespective of nationality and national boundaries. You won’t hear this from governments, for whom this invisible hand of market forces is inexplicable and not to be trusted.

    As well as rollbacks, there are other attack categories against which service providers have to be vigilant. And even though they continue, developers and service providers are getting better at recognising and preventing them. Clearly, it is a process that still has some way to go, but it appears that the cryptocurrency community is beginning to regulate itself effectively.

    Consequently, there is likely to be growing institutional confidence in both cryptocurrency technology and in the leading cryptocurrencies themselves. We can therefore expect renewed attempts to package cryptocurrencies into regulated investment vehicles, pressure regulators will find increasingly difficult to resist, so that investing institutions can invest.

    Defining cryptocurrencies and their role as currency

    There is a continuing debate about whether cryptocurrencies are a form of money, so it is important to put them in their financial context and establish their function.

    Money and the currency which represents it are mediums of payment that allow a business and people to turn their production output into the goods and services they need and desire. A common money or form of currency has to be accepted by everyone with whom the individual is likely to transact directly and indirectly. It must be stable in value, so that decisions on prices paid and received are confined to changes from the goods and services side of a transaction. In other words, money must have a common objective value which goes unquestioned between transacting parties, so that all else in a price is subjective.

    The choice of currency is down to transacting individuals, whether it be crypto or fiat. Fiat currencies are accepted by us in our relevant jurisdictions because we are commanded to use it by our governments. We comply because of the convenience a state currency offers, but ultimately the decision to use it and the exchange value we put on it is a collective choice. Cryptocurrencies share this theoretical standing as fiat currencies, except that they do not have government backing and are not normally used to settle transactions in goods and services. It is on these two points that many dismiss the status of cryptocurrencies as a representation of money, as well as being too volatile to have that important objective value. But before dismissing it on these grounds we should note that there can be as much volatility in fiat, as users of Turkish rials, Indonesian rupiahs and others will attest; it just happens the volatility in fiat tends to be in a negative direction.

    These considerations apply only to settling transactions in goods and services. A different case is the use of fiat currency as a counterpart to financial investment, where the objective is not to use it to facilitate consumption, but to convert the investment back to the original currency at a later date. This has led some investors to argue that cash should be regarded as a portfolio asset, having strategic value just like any investment allocation. In this respect, we can see both crypto and fiat can be regarded as ranking assets for investment purposes. All that is required for this to materialise is a loss of confidence in fiat relative to crypto for investors to accept crypto as a money-substitute for fiat.

    We can take the comparison of cryptocurrencies with the status of fiat currency even further. As investors, we look at foreign-issued fiat money as a potential investment. Selling dollars for Swiss francs is with a profit in mind, a transaction to be valued in dollars and reversed at a later date, unless you intend to go to Switzerland to spend your francs. For the purpose of currency speculation, in this context a cryptocurrency is obviously an alternative that ranks with fiat.

    The limitations on the future issue of a cryptocurrency that requires to be mined contrasts with the open-ended expansion of fiat currencies, and so purely on the difference in their individual rates of expansion they have the potential to drive cryptocurrencies priced in fiat relatively higher over time. The caveat which must not be neglected is that it assumes there is no change in relative confidence, because both state-issued currencies and cryptocurrencies are backed by nothing else.

    Lastly, the rapid increase in the number of cryptocurrencies might at first sight constitute supply. This has not turned out to be the case, because confidence in future values has been restricted to those with an established history. There can be ten thousand different cryptocurrencies, but public acceptability will remain confined to very few.

    Fundamentally, there is much in common between fiat and crypto, and to the extent that the central bankers issuing fiat currency understand it, they should be alarmed at the potential consequences. So far, most central banks have ducked this issue. The only governments that are interested in crypto are either ones that have destroyed their own monetary credibility, such as Venezuela, or those who might consider strategic benefits, such as Russia. And this is why Professor Ginko’s tweets are thought-provoking.

    Could it be that President Putin thinks he has found a way to destroy the dollar? If so, he must be taking an iconoclastic view, because it will also need a systemic crisis to undermine faith in the dollar in order to trigger a widespread flight out it into cryptocurrencies.

    Gold makes more sense for Russia

    President Putin seems unlikely to indulge in cryptocurrency fairy tales. Instead, through Russia’s central bank he is building gold reserves in partnership with a number of important Asian governments. The geopolitical sense in this strategy is that Russia wants to replace the dollar and the currencies tied to it and instead accept hard, incorruptible money for its energy exports. Gold has been suppressed by the US Government’s long-standing denials that it is money, preferring to promote their fiat dollar instead. Gold priced in dollars is therefore cheap and an opportunity for Russia.

    Gold’s durability as a medium of exchange establishes it as true money, whereas crypto and fiat are mere currency, that is to say they only pretend to be true money. Early cryptocurrency enthusiasts claimed that bitcoin and others were a modern replacement for gold, based on similar supply characteristics and the requirement to be “mined”. What they omitted to tell us was that without demand for cryptocurrencies, they are valueless, whereas if gold for the first time in the history of money became universally rejected as money, it still retains value for other uses.

    It is those other uses, coupled with its incorruptible characteristics that marks out gold from all forms of ethereal currency. But in this confusing world of what constitutes money and currencies, few Westerners seem to understand that gold is the money. Instead, they regard it as an investment, offering protection in uncertain times.

    This is a mistake. The purpose of an investment is profit. Investment is undertaken in anticipation of final values and their realisation in the underlying units of account. That is what a buyer of shares in gold mines and gold derivatives does. A buyer of physical gold buys it because he or she is disposing of inferior currency as a store of value.

    This is why gold has remained the true money for millennia. Fiat currencies are probably on the path that ends in their final oblivion, a journey that has lasted only a century. Cryptocurrencies in the context of time are ephemera which will enjoy only a brief existence before oblivion.

    For those of us that have taken the trouble to understand money, we can see that cryptocurrencies have the potential to evolve into the biggest bubble of all time and on a global scale, fuelled by the excesses of fiat issuance, past and future. Only time will tell if it happens, but if a cryptocurrency bubble really gets going, it could accelerate a move out of fiat currencies, undermining the public’s relative preferences that give fiat its credibility. Logically, cryptocurrencies have the alarming potential to kill fiat currencies stone dead.

    Does President Putin understand this, and does he have a plan to demolish the dollar by triggering a cryptocurrency bubble? Clever though he is, probably not.

  • Trucking Companies At War Over This New Niche Of E-Commerce Delivery

    The battle for new delivery business spurred by the significant rise in large products ordered online is officially on.

    And as consumers get more comfortable buying larger items like appliances, grills, treadmills and even furniture online, trucking companies like JB Hunt Transport Services Inc. are knee-deep in the fray to secure the ensuing delivery business that comes with it.

    JB Hunt, for instance, announced Wednesday that it has agreed to pay $100 million for a company in New Jersey that specializes in delivering large items to consumers. This is the second such purchase made by JB Hunt in the delivery space in less than two years.

    Similarly, XPO logistics has made four acquisitions of this nature to try and implement what it is calling a “white glove service”. Ryder System Inc. also spent $120 million last year to purchase a company that would bring in an additional 109 e-commerce fulfillment facilities and 72 third-party centers.

    And the M&A should continue. Nick Hobbs, of J.B. Hunt told Bloomberg:

     “You’ll see more consolidation come along because there’s a lot of interest out there.”

    The market for these types of deliveries is up about 10% from last year, according to SJ Consulting Group. The total market is valued at about $8.9 billion. This is a significantly faster rate of growth than regular freight and it is anticipated that it will continue to grow rapidly, as younger people start to age and take on bigger purchases.

    John Hill, president and chief commercial officer Pilot Freight Services said: 

    “Millennials buy everything online. They’re very comfortable making those purchases sight unseen.” 

    The need for the delivery niche also arises from online merchants who want pricing and tracking options similar to FedEx and UPS, who are not efficient in delivering the larger items.

    One merchant recently profiled in a Bloomberg writeup, BBQGuys.com, ships its items from Louisiana all over the country and gets more than 70% of its $115 million in annual sales from larger items. The company has tried to offer delivery with installation but inconsistencies among the industry have made it difficult for them.

    Corey Tisdale, the VP of the company, stated:

    “We know there’s a demand for it. We’ve been limited by the networks that we found, being able to have the same consistency in terms of delivery experience across the U.S.”

    This need for consistent delivery is what has created the opportunity for these trucking companies.

    Hobbs of JB Hunt continued:

     “Each consumer wants something different and each retailer wants something different. So we have to be very agile in how we put together a good solution.”

    At Ryder, the company tries to provide consistent nationwide coverage with their partners, while using volume to offset high delivery costs. The technology it has recently bought allows customers to pick their own delivery times, one of several capabilities that aren’t available with traditional shippers or small independent truckers.

  • A 'Convenient Killing' Of US Troops In Syria

    Authored by Finian Cunningha, via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    With unseemly haste, US news media leapt on the killing of four American military personnel in Syria as a way to undermine President Donald Trump’s plan to withdraw troops from that country.

    The deadly attack in the northern city of Manbij, on the west bank of the Euphrates River, was reported to have been carried out by a suicide bomber. The Islamic State (ISIS) terror group reportedly claimed responsibility, but the group routinely makes such claims which often turn out to be false.

    The American military personnel were said to be on a routine patrol of Manbij where US forces have been backing Kurdish militants in a purported campaign against ISIS and other terror groups.

    An explosion at a restaurant resulted in two US troops and two Pentagon civilian officials being killed, along with more than a dozen other victims. Three other US military persons were among those injured.

    US media highlighted the bombing as the biggest single death toll of American forces in Syria since they began operations in the country nearly four years ago.

    The US and Kurdish militia have been in control of Manbij for over two years. It is one of the main sites from where American troops are to withdraw under Trump’s exit plan, which he announced on December 19.

    Following the bombing, the New York Times headlined: “ISIS Attack in Syria Kills 4 Americans, Raising Worries about Troop Withdrawal”. The report goes on, “the news prompted calls from Republicans and Democrats for President Trump to reconsider his plans to withdraw troops from the country.”

    A more pointed headline in The Washington was: “Killing of 4 Americans in Syria Throws Spotlight on Trump’s Policy”.

    The Post editorialized, “the bombing showed that [ISIS] is likely to be a force to be reckoned with in Syria for the foreseeable future.” It quoted politicians in Washington claiming the “bombing deaths… were a direct result of a foolish and abrupt departure announcement [by Trump], and made the case for staying.”

    Democrat Senator Jack Reed, who sits on the Senate Armed Forces Committee, said: “From the beginning, I thought the president was wrong [in ordering the withdrawal]. It was a strategic mistake for the whole region.”

    With macabre smugness, anti-Trump politicians and news media appeared to exploit the death of US troops in Manbij to score points against Trump.

    The president’s claims made just before Christmas of having defeated ISIS were widely replayed following the Manbij attack this week by way of ridiculing Trump’s order to pullout US troops from Syria.

    Nevertheless, despite the deaths, Trump and his Vice President Mike Pence stated they were still committed to bring the 2,000 or so US troops home. Some military figures also went on US media to defend Trump’s pullout plan in spite of the terror attack in Manbij.

    There clearly is a serious division in Washington over Trump’s policy on Syria. For Democrats and supportive media outlets, anything Trump does is to be opposed. But there are also elements within the military and intelligence nexus which are implacably against, what they see as, his “capitulation to Russia and Iran” in Syria. That was partly why his Defense Secretary James Mattis resigned days after Trump made his announced withdrawal at the end of last month.

    Having invested years and money in regime-change machinations in Syria, there is bound to be US military and intelligence cabals which are resistant to Trump’s move to pack up. Not that Trump’s move portends a peace dividend for the region. It is more a “tactical change” for how US imperialism operates in the Middle East, as his Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in Cairo last week.

    That is why Trump’s order to take troops out of Syria may not be a clear-cut withdrawal. His National Security adviser John Bolton on a tour of the Middle East last week has already tried to undermine Trump by attaching all sorts of vague conditions to the troop pullout. Bolton and Pompeo have talked about the need to ensure the total defeat of ISIS and of the countering of Iranian presence in Syria.

    This brings up the question of who may have carried out the bombing in Manbij? Was it really a suicide bomber? Was it really ISIS? Several observers have pointed out that ISIS have not had any presence in Manbij for the past two years since the Americans and Kurds took control of the city.

    As always, the key question arises: who stands to benefit from the killing of the American troops? The scale of the attack suggests it was carried out with a sharp political message intended for Trump.

    One potential beneficiary are the Kurdish militants who are being abandoned by the putative US withdrawal. Without their American sponsor on the ground, the Kurds are in danger of Turkish forces launching cross-border operations to wipe them out, as Ankara has vowed to do. A Machiavellian Kurdish calculation could be to “disprove” Trump about “ISIS being defeated”, and that US forces are needed to prevent any resurgence of the terror group in Manbij and northeast Syria.

    Another sinister player is the CIA or some other element of US military intelligence. It is certainly not beyond the realm of plausibility that the CIA could facilitate such an atrocity against American personnel in order to discredit Trump’s withdrawal plan.

    Certainly, the way the anti-Trump media in the US reacted with such alacrity and concerted talking points suggests there was something a bit too convenient about the massacre.

    It would in fact be naive to not suspect that the CIA could have pulled off such a false flag in Manbij. As in 1950s Vietnam, as told by Graham Greene in ‘The Quiet American’, the CIA have been doing such dirty tricks with bombing atrocities and assassinations for decades in order to precipitate wars in foreign countries that the agency calculates are in America’s geopolitical interests.

  • Automating Retail: Googly-Eyed Robots Are Coming to Nearly 500 Grocery Stores

    Robots may soon be scooting around the aisles of your local grocery store.

    Approximately 500 robots will be coming to supermarkets in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Virginia, and West Virginia, thanks to a strategic partnership between Retail Business Services and Badger Technologies.

    Retail Business Services, a subsidiary of Ahold Delhaize USA, currently provides services to six of Ahold Delhaize USA’s East Coast supermarket brands, including Food Lion, Giant Food, GIANT/MARTIN’S, Hannaford and Stop & Shop, as well as the online grocery retailer, Peapod.

    Within the next six months, Ahold Delhaize USA brands will have at least one robot in nearly 500 of their stores following successful in-store pilot programs at Harrisburg and Carlisle locations.

    “As part of our continued focus on technology transformation, we’re pleased to support one of the most significant deployments of robotics innovation in the grocery retail industry. 

    Several companies in the grocery retail space have recently begun testing or using in-store robots – something Retail Business Services and the local brands we serve have been doing for some time. We’re pleased to support the GIANT/MARTIN’S and Stop & Shop brands as they now lead the industry from test to large-scale usage of robots and to see the benefits the technology continues to drive for their businesses,” ” said Paul Scorza, EVP and Chief Information Officer for Retail Business Services.

    Dubbed “Marty,” the in-store fully autonomous robot has been designed for the grocery retail environment to address out-of-stock, planogram compliance, price integrity, and audit and compliance issues.

    The robot operates safely alongside patrons and employees while scanning aisles. Advanced technologies include:

    •  Rotating lidar to map and navigate the store
    • High resolution and 3D depth cameras for navigation and data acquisition
    • Navigation sensors • Firmware in robotics operating system (ROS)
    • Modular application software architecture for custom system integration
    • Autonomous base with rechargeable 12-hour battery

    “We are excited to be part of this industry-leading rollout of fully autonomous robots that collect safety data while traversing retail stores,” said Frederic McCoy, SVP, Jabil Retail. “Real-time hazard alerts empower stores to resolve incidents like spills, as well as improve operations.”

    Nationwide, other retailers, including Walmart and Target, have been testing or rapidly deploying robots. This is part of the great transformation, and a defined theme by Karen Harris, Managing Director of Bain & Company’s Macro Trends Group, who recently penned the piece Labor 2030: The Collision of Demographics, Automation and Inequality.

    For more color on how automation will disrupt the business environment in the next decade, Harris discusses the collision at play.

  • Is Putin Stealing Santa's Grotto? The Magnetic North Pole Has Moved Closer To Russia

    Authored by Kevin Anderton via Forbes.com,

    I have been seeing some headlines pointing out that Earth’s magnetic field is acting up and that scientists don’t understand why, so I thought I would take the time to clear up the issue.

    What is happening?

    Earth’s magnetic pole is moving in the direction of Siberia and away from Canada. This is something that scientists have been tracking for a long time. It’s fairly easy to look up the location of the magnetic pole dating back to the early 1900s. The recent changes of the drifting pole are raising some concerns but the direction is not the problem. In fact, the direction of the drifting pole has been roughly the same for as long as scientists have been tracking it. The speed is the issue.

    Every five years scientists recalculate the location of the magnetic pole. This is important information for global navigation, which includes GPS satellites and other technology. These changes can make a big difference in our everyday lives.

    Scientists at NOAA and the British Geological Survey check how accurate the World Magnetic Model is every year and when they did their check this year they noticed some large differences. Primarily that the pole’s movement had sped up. The location data for the pole was supposed to last until 2020 before it needed to be updated but according to experts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, it needs to be updated now.

    The movement of Earth’s magnetic field since its discovery

    Why is this happening?

    The movement of the pole is caused by flows of molten liquid iron in the Earth’s core. This liquid and how it moves creates the Earth’s magnetic field. Variations in the liquid flow cause the magnetic field to change over time and cause the location of magnetic north to move.

    The global model was off because of a geomagnetic pulse the occurred beneath South America in 2016. This pulse just came at a bad time. The 2015 World Magnetic Model was brand new and not scheduled to be renewed until 2020. It seems that in the future we may not be able to wait as long between updates. The poles movement has sped up in recent memory from 9 miles a year in the 1990s to about 34 miles a year at present day. A new model needs to be implemented as soon as possible and even then they will have to rework the model again in 2020. Until then navigation might be affected.

    What caused the geomagnetic pulse beneath South America is unknown. If you have been seeing headlines that imply the scientists are clueless or don’t understand what is happening this is what they are talking about. Anomalies like this happen from time to time and honestly, it’s nothing to be worried about.

    Why is the pole moving?

    In the northern hemisphere, deep within the Earth, there are two large areas of magnetic strength being generated by the liquid metal surrounding Earth’s core. One is under Canada and the other is under Siberia. What we are seeing now is the result of those two areas pulling against each other.

    It’s also worth noting that the release of the new model is being delayed due to the US government shutdown. If you would like to know more about this issue please write your Senator and ask them to reopen the government.

  • Watch Robot Dog Deliver A Package From Autonomous Shuttle

    At CES 2019, the transport firm Continental pushed the boundaries of autonomous vehicle technology, showed how a driverless utility van could be used to stage and deploy delivery robot dogs, taking packages from the vehicle to a customer’s doorstep.

    In the demonstrations, the battery-powered ANYmal robot, manufactured by Swiss robotics manufacturer ANYbotics, walked out of Continental’s CUbE (Continental Urban mobility Experience) demo vehicle, stepped over an object in its path and marched up the front steps of a model front porch. After reaching the door, the robot rings the doorbell with its paw and leans over to slide the package of its back.

    “With the help of robot delivery, Continental’s vision for seamless mobility can extend right to your doorstep. Our vision of cascaded robot delivery leverages a driverless vehicle to carry delivery robots, creating an efficient transport team,” said Ralph Lauxmann, Head of Systems & Technology, Chassis & Safety division, Continental, in a statement.

    “Both are electrified, both are autonomous and, in principle, both can be based on the same scalable technology portfolio. These synergies create an exciting potential for holistic delivery concepts using similar solutions for different platforms. Beyond this technology foundation, it’s reasonable to expect a whole value chain to develop in this area.”

    The robot weighs 66 pounds and can carry boxes up to 22 pounds. AI navigates the Black Mirror-like dog through wide-angle cameras, sensor-studded feet, and a high-tech radar system.

    Continental has focused research on the last mile, a term used in supply chain management/transportation planning to describe how goods move to their final destination.

    The company wants to use robot dogs and autonomous vehicles for goods and parcel delivery to residential areas, a rapidly developing market thanks to e-commerce sales.

    Continental believes that the last mile of goods delivery should be automated, it will be an integral part of future urban mobility. Driverless vehicles like the CUbE can transport multiple robot dogs that could handle the last yards of the goods and parcel delivery logistics chain.

    “Industrializing the automation of goods delivery requires reliable, robust, high-performing and best-cost technology – a mix perfectly reflected in the automotive equivalent of automation. It is this very profile of expertise that has made Continental one of the industry-leading suppliers of advanced driver assistance systems and vehicle automation,” said Ralph Lauxmann, Head of Systems & Technology, Chassis & Safety division, Continental.

    Automating the last mile with robot dogs and driverless vehicles represents the next big thing for smart cities in the future, and it also serves as a warning that thousands of gig-economy last mile jobs are about to be eliminated.

  • Solar Investment Plunges Amid Panel Glut

    Authored by Irina Slav via Oilprice.com,

    Global spending on solar energy declined by almost a quarter last year to US$130.8 billion, mainly on the back of a regulatory policy overhaul in China that led to an oversupply of solar panels, driving prices down. This, in turn, resulted in an 8-percent slide in overall renewable energy investments to US$332 billion, data from a new report by Bloomberg New Energy Finance has shown.

    China took markets by surprise in June last year by announcing that it would not issue approvals for any new solar power installations in 2018 and would also cut the feed-in tariff subsidy that has been a major driver of the solar business in the country that accounts for as much as 50 percent of capacity.

    Following the June decision of the Chinese planning commission, global PV panel prices dropped by 12 percent, which benefited buyers of PV panels but served a blow to producers, and not just those in China. Yet, the investment cut was the largest in China: investments in renewable energy there fell by about 50 percent or US$40 billion last year.

    This had a beneficial effect on capital costs, the BNEF analysts said. In 2018, the cost of installing a megawatt of solar generation capacity shed 12 percent. Now, this was not because of major cost reductions as much as a global PV module oversupply that was already emerging before China overhauled its solar industry regulations, but it was still substantial as far as cost cuts go.

    While the news about falling panel costs is certainly good as it is making solar energy more competitive, the BNEF report was generally of the “cold shower” variety as a whole. The Bloomberg researchers warned that despite a surge in renewable energy investment since 2004, when the world spent less than US$62 billion on cleaner energy, as global energy demand grew, so did the consumption of fossil fuels. This effectively offset the gains in carbon emissions reductions achieved through the growing use of alternative energy sources.

    Commenting on the report’s findings, BNEF analyst Jenny Chase, head of solar analysts, said “2018 was certainly a difficult year for many solar manufacturers, and for developers in China. However, we estimate that global PV installations increased from 99GW in 2017 to approximately 109GW in 2018, as other countries took advantage of the technology’s fiercely improved competitiveness.”

    This year promises to be tough as well, at least in China. Earlier this month, the government said it will only approve new solar and wind power capacity if it matches the country’s coal benchmark on price.

    One of the reasons for this move is the weight of subsidies that prompted last year’s regulatory change. Another, according to Forbes’ John Parnell, was the fact that Chinese companies are building solar projects abroad that produce electricity much more cheaply than the installations at home.

    China is still the biggest spender on renewables, the BNEF report established, so it will remain key to the world’s total carbon emission reduction success, regardless of where capital costs of solar installations go.

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Today’s News 18th January 2019

  • Marine Le Pen Says Leaving The Euro "No Longer A Priority"

    Though they have calmed somewhat since they first erupted late last year, the Yellow Vest protests are set to continue this week as French President Emmanuel Macron’s offerings of olive branches in the form of rolling back a planned gas-tax hike (the original impetus for the protests), promising to blow out the deficit to offer more government benefits and even abandoning plans to go to Davos have done little to quiet the public outrage over his “presidency for the rich.”

    Macron

    And as his popularity drops to unprecedented lows, polls suggest that the party of his former rival for the presidency, the National Rally party’s Marine Le Pen, has overtaken Macron’s “En Marche” in popularity. And as Le Pen and her fellow pan-European populists organize to mount a credible challenge to the Brussels establishment during the upcoming European Parliamentary elections in May, Le Pen is making a notable pivot in her party’s platform, presumably to try and make it more appealing to more centrist Europeans.

    According to RT France, Le Pen told the press on Thursday that leaving the euro – once a hallmark of her party’s position – was “no longer a priority” for National Rally.

    “Unquestionably, the euro is a blow for France” but out “is no longer a priority,” Le Pen said Thursday, advocating a change in monetary governance of the European Union.

    “If we change the monetary” governance and “we see that it is sufficient to allow the French economy to recover the handicaps that have been created by the currency, we will keep the change. We are pragmatic, we are not ideologues,” said the president of the National Assembly in the margins of her wishes to the press at the headquarters of his party in Nanterre.

    Though opposing the euro will no longer be a priority, Le Pen had some disparaging words for the European Central Bank, a sign that she is pivoting to an economically populist agenda targeting inequality and immigration. Instead of directing its policies to the benefit of European workers, the ECB’s focus on inflation has led it to a monetary stimulus policy that has helped widen inequality.

    “The governance that has been chosen and which aims for the ECB [European Central Bank] to fight only against inflation and to refuse to fight against unemployment, poses a real problem,” said the finalist of the presidential election in 2017.

    “Money creation by the EU, instead of being sent to agencies to invest in the real economy or even directly to states…is for banks and is lost, diluted in the virtual economy,” she said.

    Instead of focusing on leaving the euro, Le Pen would rather RN focus on border sovereignty and economic issues like the French budget, a position that echoes that of Italy’s populist leaders, who recently faced down the EU and won permission to blow out the country’s budget deficit.

  • Paul Craig Roberts: The National Security Agency Is A Criminal Organization

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

    Years before Edward Snowden provided documented proof that the National Security Agency was really a national insecurity agency as it was violating law and the US Constitution and spying indiscriminately on American citizens, William Binney, who designed and developed the NSA spy program revealed the illegal and unconstitutional spying.

    Binney turned whistleblower, because NSA was using the program to spy on Americans. As Binney was well known to the US Congress, he did not think he needed any NSA document to make his case. But what he found out was:

    Congress would never hear me because then they’d lose plausible deniability. That was really their key. They needed to have plausible deniability so they can continue this massive spying program because it gave them power over everybody in the world. Even the members of Congress had power against others [in Congress]; they had power on judges on the Supreme Court, the federal judges, all of them.

    That’s why they’re so afraid. Everybody’s afraid because all this data that’s about them, the central agencies — the intelligence agencies — they have it. And that’s why Senator Schumer warned President Trump earlier, a few months ago, that he shouldn’t attack the intelligence community because they’ve got six ways to Sunday to come at you. That’s because it’s like J. Edgar Hoover on super steroids. . . . it’s leverage against every member of parliament and every government in the world.”

    To prevent whistle-blowing, NSA has “a program now called ‘see something, say something’ about your fellow workers.”

    That’s what the Stasi did. That’s why I call [NSA] the new New Stasi Agency. They’re picking up all the techniques from the Stasi and the KGB and the Gestapo and the SS. They just aren’t getting violent yet that we know of  –  internally in the US, outside is another story.”

    As Binney had no documents to give to the media, blowing the whistle had no consequence for NSA. This is the reason that Snowden released the documents that proved NSA to be violating both law and the Constitution, but the corrupt US media focused blame on Snowden as a “traitor” and not on NSA for its violations.

    Whistleblowers are protected by federal law. Regardless, the corrupt US government tried to prosecute Binney for speaking out, but as he had taken no classified document, a case could not be fabricated against him.

    Binney blames the NSA’s law-breaking on Dick “Darth” Cheney. He says NSA’s violations of law and Constitution are so extreme that they would have to have been cleared at the top of the government.

    Binney, who developed the spy network, explains that it was supposed to operate only against foreign enemies, and that using it for universal spying so overloads the system with data that the system fails to discover many terrorist activities. 

    Apparently, the National Security Agency values being able to blackmail citizens and members of government at home and abroad more than preventing terrorist attacks.

    Unfortunately for Americans, there are many Americans who blindly trust the government and provide the means, the misuse of which is used to enslave us. A large percentage of the work in science and technology serves not to free people but to enslave them. By now there is no excuse for scientists and engineers not to know this. Yet they persist in their construction of the means to destroy liberty.

  • Chinese Property Developers Implode As Market Freaks Out Over $55 Billion Debt Cliff

    Earlier this month, when we reported that in the latest warning about China’s housing sector, the Communist Party’s People’s Daily warned that China’s regional economies need to reduce their reliance on the property market for growth and instead focus on sustainable longer-term development, we wondered if “something was afoot with China’s housing sector.”

    The story is familiar: in recent year, hundreds of cities across China have seen upswings in their local property markets under a long-term plan by Beijing to further urbanize the country. The process of building new homes and revamping old ones has only accelerated in the last few years, backed by local governments keen to boost land sales and meet red-hot property demand. Indeed, the total sales of China’s top 100 real estate developers soared 35% last year. But repeating a now familiar warning that the party is over, Beijing has once again expressed concern that some cities, looking for rapid expansion, have grown their property markets too quickly and at the expense of new industry development, adding potential froth to real estate prices.

    Two weeks later, our concern that something is not quite well with China’s housing sector was validated by the market overnight when shares in Jiayuan International, a prominent Chinese property developer, imploded in late trading in Hong Kong on Thursday, its stock collapsing 81% due to investor unease over a sector that is staggering under vast debts just as the world’s second-biggest economy slows.

    According to analysts, all of whom were dumbfounded by today’s move, said that the stock, which flash crashed after a chaotic day’s trading that wiped more than $3 billion from its market capitalisation with the selling promptly spilling over to many of its peers…

    … was engulfed by concern that Jiayuan would default on a $350 million bond that matures this week.

    As we reported earlier this morning, the panic liquidation over Jiayuan also ensnared rival property company Sunshine 100 China Holdings, whose shares plunged 65% moments after Jiayuan’s collapse when traders realized that the two companies share a director.

    “Some of these companies might have cross-shareholdings in each other and when one of those starts to tumble, it brings down other related stocks,” said Bocom strategist Hao Hong. “It’s likely more similar stock crashes could happen this year. A lot of share pledges in Hong Kong are underwater, and as soon as the positions are liquidated it triggers an avalanche.

    The property development sector has become especially vulnerable to sharp selloffs as it has accumulated large amounts of dollar debt, while the flagging Chinese economy has boosted fears about future prospects for China’s housing sector in what may end up being the country’s first hard landing in decades.

    But the biggest problem is the upcoming debt cliff, which will force the sector to refinance at the worst possible time: according to the Financial Times, Chinese developers have about $55 billion of maturing onshore debt in 2019, which as discussed this morning accentuates concern over potential defaults.

    The sector is under pressure because of “potential concern over bond defaults, as [the companies] have offshore funding coming due,” said Morningstar analyst Phillip Zhong. As a result “the cost of refinancing is quite expensive.”

    In hopes of reversing the market panic, the company published a statement on its website after the Hong Kong stock market closed on Thursday, in which Jiayuan said that it had repaid the $350 million bond, adding that “its current financial situation is healthy and business operations is normal.”

    Clearly the market did not agree, although what exactly caused the stock to lose 80% of its value in one day remains a mystery, because while traders blamed everything from massive leverage, to stock pledges, to some variation of cross-asset holdings and interlinked collateral for the latest flash crash, the reality is that nobody really knows what happened as Castor Pang, head of research at Core Pacific-Yamaichi confirmed: “No one really knows what’s going on here. For common investors, it’s a very surprising and tough situation as there was no time to get out.”

    * * *

    The bigger problem, beside the “avalanche” of overnight Hong Kong flash crashes is that after a boom in recent years, China’s property market is cooling, with developers forced to announce sharp price to move inventory, in the process leading to public anger over a sharp drop in prevailing prices. As we reported in October, this led to homeowners protesting in the streets last year in several large cities to demand refunds after developers cut prices to stimulate sales.

    And then there is the issue of the $55 billion in coming property developer debt maturities which risks to blow up the local debt market as rates gradually rise. Refinancing maturing debt “has always been a concern for lower-rated companies” in the property business, and will be particularly urgent this year given the scale of the debt maturing, said Mr Zhong.

    Quoted by the FT, Nicole Wong, an analyst at CLSA, noted that recent stimulus measures by the central bank are “aimed at only the very big [developers]”.

    The silver lining is that the overnight crash in property developer shares was not enough to unsettle the wider Hong Kong market, with the benchmark Hang Seng index closing barely down.

    Still, traders are growing more nervous that the tipping point is near: Wee Liat Lee, head of financial group and property research in Asia at BNP Paribas, said the issue of systemic risk “is a problem . . . the Chinese economy is pretty dependent on property as a sector, in terms of investment and reliance of local government on land sales and revenue”.

    “But I think this is an issue the Chinese government realised a long time ago,” he added. “It’s a structural problem that takes quite a bit of time to unwind.”

    Failing that, Beijing will just bail out the entire housing sector as it has done on so many prior occasions. The alternative is the one thing that keeps every politician in Beijing up at night: revolution.

  • "Our Country Is In A Hell Hole Right Now": In Profane Tirade, Rapper Cardi B Demands Trump End Shutdown

    It’s a rare day when Democratic Minority Leader Chuck Schumer gets to feel relevant with the youth culture. But today is one of those days.

    In a profanity-laced tirade published on her Instagram account Wednesday night, female rapper-of-the-moment Cardi B railed against the government shutdown and against President Trump for ordering federal workers to return to work without pay, declaring that “our country is in a hellhole right now…all for a f***king wall.”

    Cardi

    And while she acknowledged that Obama also shut down the government for two-and-a-half weeks, that was different – because it was for “health care”.

    “I just wanna remind you that it’s been a little bit over three weeks…Trump is now ordering … federal government workers to go back to work without getting paid…now I don’t wanna hear y’all talking about how Obama shut down the government for 17 days…yeah b***h, for health care…so your grandma could go check her blood pressure….and y’all bitches could get your p**sy checked out at the gynecologist with no “motherf***king problem.”

    “I know y’all don’t care because y’all probably don’t work for the federal government or y’all probably don’t even have a job…but this is serious.”

    “Our country is in a hellhole right now, all for a f**king wall…and we really need to take this serious…and we really need to take some action,” Cardi B said. “And honestly I’m scared.”

    What kind of action? Cardi can’t say because “that’s not what I do.” But somebody should definitely do something.

    //www.instagram.com/embed.js

     

    Sounding like giddy schoolchildren, several Democratic senators launched into a debate about whether they should retweet the video…with a memorable cameo from the minority leader himself.

    tweets

    Now that Cardi has come out on one side of the issue, it’s only a matter of time until Nicki Minaj comes out in favor of building the wall.

  • Trump "Personally Instructed" Michael Cohen To Lie To Congress About Moscow Project: BuzzFeed

    President Trump instructed his former longtime attorney Michael Cohen to lie to congress about negotiations to construct a Moscow Trump Tower, according to BuzzFeed, citing two federal law enforcement officials who leaked the information.

    Trump also supported a plan hatched by Cohen to visit Russia during the 2016 presidential campaign in order to personally meet Vladimir Putin to see if it would help get the project off the ground. “Make it happen,” Trump allegedly told Cohen. 

    And even as Trump told the public he had no business deals with Russia, the sources said Trump and his children, Ivanka and Donald Trump Jr., received regular, detailed updates about the real estate development from Cohen, whom they put in charge of the project. –BuzzFeed

    According to BuzzFeed, Cohen told special counsel Robert Mueller that after the election, “Trump personally instructed him to lie” – by claiming that the Trump Tower Moscow negotiations had ended months before they actually had. The special counsel’s office also allegedly learned about Trump’s insructions to lie “through interviews with multiple witnesses from the Trump Organization and internal company emails, text messages, and a cache of other documents,” which Cohen reportedly confirmed. 

    This revelation is not the first evidence to suggest the president may have attempted to obstruct the FBI and special counsel investigations into Russia’s interference in the 2016 election.

    But Cohen’s testimony marks a significant new frontier: It is the first known example of Trump explicitly telling a subordinate to lie directly about his own dealings with Russia. –BuzzFeed

     Trump repeatedly denied having any business interests in Russia while on the campaign trail – while simultaneously pushing for the Moscow project which he hoped could bring the Trump Organization profits in excess of $300 million. According to BuzzFeed, citing “two law enforcement sources,” Trump had at least 10 face-to-face meetings with Cohen about the deal during the election. 

    Last year, BuzzFeed reported that Cohen associate (and FBI asset) Felix Sater continued to spearhead the Trump Tower Moscow idea through June 2016 – communicating with “Russian bankers, developers, and officials connected to the Kremlin.” 

    Meanwhile, lawyers close to the Trump administration helped Cohen craft his Congressional testimony, including his draft statement to the Senate panel according to the report. This did not include former White House counsel DOn McGhan, who told BuzzFeed through an attorney: “Don McGahn had no involvement with or knowledge of Michael Cohen’s testimony. Nor was he aware of anyone in the White House Counsel’s Office who did.”

    Following Cohen’s guilty plea, the special counsel’s office filed a memo in court vouching for his “credible” and “useful” information during seven interviews – adding that Cohen had provided details about his contacts with “persons connected to the White House” in 2017 and 2018. 

    According to BuzzFeed‘s law enforcement sources, Cohen confirmed that Trump directed him to lie to Congress, and that he had provided details of his conversations regarding Trump Tower Moscow with Trump, Donald Trump Jr., and Ivanka Trump – all three of whom have distanced themselves from the issue, claiming they had little knowledge of the negotiations. 

    Ivanka, however, was set to manage a spa at the tower and personally recommended an architect, according to the report. She also instructed Cohen to discuss the project with a Russian athlete who offered “synergy on a government level” in order to get the project moving. Cohen reportedly rebuffed Ivanka’s suggestion to meet with the athlete, angering Ivanka according to emails reviewed by BuzzFeed

    But a picture of their deep involvement is now emerging, as FBI agents and prosecutors pore over witness interviews and internal documents from Cohen and other Trump Organization officials and executives.

    Trump was even made aware that Cohen was speaking to Russian government officials about the deal. The lawyer at one point spoke to a Kremlin aide as he sought support for the tower.

    Trump also encouraged Cohen to plan a trip to Russia during the campaign, where the candidate could meet face-to-face with Putin. –BuzzFeed

    Felix Sater, meanwhile, – a real estate developer, convicted felon and longtime asset for US intelligence agencies, tried to arrange a trip for Cohen to the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum where he was to meet with top Russian government officials and bankers. In order to advance the deal, Cohen told Sater that Trump himself would also go to Russia after the Republican National Convention in July 2016. 

    Of course, buried towards the end of the story BuzzFeed notes “The trip to St. Petersburg never took place and the plans to build Trump Tower Moscow never came tor fruition.”

    That said, “the negotiations occupy an important place in Mueler’s investigation, as agents try to learn whether it is connected to the Kremlin’s interferene campaign and whom Trump associates were in contact with to close the deal.” 

    Trump, in his defense of the project, stated last November “There was a good chance that I wouldn’t have won, in which case I would have gotten back into the business, and why should I lose lots of opportunities?”

    Meanwhile, big questions remain over how involved Trump’s children were in the project. 

    A spokesperson for Ivanka Trump’s attorney wrote that she was only “minimally involved” in the project. “Ms. Trump did not know about this proposal until after a non-binding letter of intent had been signed, never talked to anyone outside the Organization about the proposal, never visited the prospective project site and, even internally, was only minimally involved,” wrote Peter Mirijanian.

    Donald Trump Jr., meanwhile, testified to the Senate Judiciary Committee on Sept. 7, 2017, that he was only “peripherally aware” of the plan to build a tower in Moscow. “Most of my knowledge has been gained since as it relates to hearing about it over the last few weeks.”

    The two law enforcement sources disputed this characterization and said that he and Cohen had multiple, detailed conversations on this subject during the campaign. –BuzzFeed

    Cohen is set to testify publicly before the Democrat controlled House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform on February 7. 

  • American "Liberal" Delusions On Trump

    Authored by Finian Cunningham via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    The anti-Trump so-called “liberal” American politicians and media suffer from a cozy big delusion. The Democrats and their supportive media, such as CNN and New York Times, as well as the foreign policy establishment, including the CIA, promote the belief that all of America’s ills and problems will be solved if only President Trump could be impeached.

    The so-called “liberal-left” in the US – which has nothing to do with leftwing or socialist politics as most of the world would define it – is increasingly warning that Trump is taking America into a dark place of authoritarianism.

    Take a recent op-ed in the New York Times by columnist Roger Cohen with the headline: ‘Donald Trump Just Cannot Help It’. It’s a scathing piece which lambasts Trump in very personal terms as a “malignant” conman.

    The key line perhaps is when Cohen writes: “The Reichstag Fire was at least a fire. Here, there is smoke and mirrors.” He is referring to what many historians contend was a false-flag arson attack on the German parliament in 1933, which allowed newly elected Chancellor Adolf Hitler to install his Nazi dictatorship by claiming the sabotage was a communist plot.

    Many critics of Trump, including Cohen, are concerned that the president is “manufacturing a crisis” over his border wall proposal. They accuse him of using the US government shutdown and the political impasse with Democrats on the proposed border wall funding as a pretext to introduce a state of emergency. Cohen’s mention of the infamous Reichstag Fire has therefore a seemingly radical inference. He, and many others in the American liberal-left, are warning that Trump is a crypto-fascist.

    There is some merit to that argument. Certainly, Trump seems to be whipping up a crisis about immigration which is not justified in terms of numbers and conditions on the border with Mexico. The influx of migrants and refugees is widely reported to be at an all-time low going back over the past 40 years. Most of the present migrants are families, fleeing poverty and violence in their home countries. Trump’s scary depiction of “drug dealers” and “terrorists” seems to be unabashed fabulation to incite fear.

    His threats of invoking a state of emergency in which he will use executive powers to instruct the compulsory building of a security barriers on the southern border are therefore disproportionate and uncalled for. Trump’s would-be arrogation of emergency powers has disturbing implications of overriding US constitutional law, and sidelining other branches of government. There are genuine concerns that the direction is one of authoritarianism, even fascism.

    But here is where too many Americans are deluded about Trump. They think he is the singular problem, an aberrant president. Get rid of him, they say, and we can all return to “normal democracy”.

    The reality is that the US has been sliding into authoritarianism, plutocracy and oligarchy, or dare we say fascism, for decades. The political figure of Trump – obnoxious as he is – is merely the culmination of this degenerative process in American politics.

    The obscenity of American capitalism and its grotesque exploitation of millions of American citizens – creating islands of super wealth among a sea of poverty – is a repudiation of any notion of a functioning democracy. The two-party pimping for big business, Wall Street and the military-industrial racket that has been going on for decades makes a travesty of any claims about “we the people” and elections. This backdrop of actual functioning oligarchy is why many voters – among the half, that is, who bothered to even vote – reached out to “an outsider” like Trump and his conman promises of change.

    However, the inherent problem isn’t Trump. It is the system that produces the conditions and precursors for someone like Trump to end up getting elected.

    It should be noted that people like Roger Cohen and other American “liberals” who are wringing their hands about Trump never seemed to express concern about the dominance of big business and banks in running America’s corporatocracy. Cohen and his ilk were also big supporters of US wars in Iraq and Afghanistan – wars that were illegal, resulted in millions of innocent casualties, destroyed societies and spread the scourge of terrorism.

    How is getting rid of Trump supposed to be a return to “normal democracy”? When that purported “normal democracy” is a myth, a fantasy belied by massive poverty, inequality and oppression of ordinary American workers and their families, alongside criminal imperialist wars of genocide.

    Cohen’s reference to the Reichstag Fire false flag and Trump’s propensity for authoritarianism may sound like radical criticism. But it is only radical schtick. It is worse than Trump’s con artistry because it propagates the delusion that America has an underlying democracy. The reality is American democracy stopped functioning a long time ago.

    When exactly it stopped is debatable…

    The 9/11 “terror attacks” in 2001 were certainly a candidate for comparison to the Reichstag Fire false flag event. They ushered in executive powers in Washington to wage criminal wars “against terrorism” anywhere on the planet, and for far-reaching police state surveillance of US citizens.

    Or we could go back to the Gulf of Tonkin incident in 1964 when the US created a pretext for the Vietnam War.

    Or the assassination of President John F Kennedy in Dallas in November 1963 by his Deep State enemies, which was a coup d’état against American democracy, violating the nation forever.

    Or the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913 which gave private banks and plutocrats the ultimate power over the creation of money in the US and thus a veto on economic policy.

    Many other instances (extermination of native Americans, African slavery) could be cited which testify to the fraud of “American democracy”. The seeds of authoritarianism, militarism and fascism were sown decades ago. To blame this putrefaction of democracy on Donald Trump is the delusion of American apologists for the system’s long-time corruption.

  • New US Intelligence Study: China "Already Leads The World” In Key Weapons Technologies

    A newly released Pentagon unclassified intelligence report authored by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) comes to some shocking and alarming conclusions concerning China’s rapid advances in advanced military technology in answer to the question: “What are Beijing’s strategic intentions?”

    The report finds that as a result of “acquiring technology by any means available” — especially in the areas of naval and missile systems, including intermediate range missiles and hypersonic weapons, capable of allowing missiles to travel at many times the speed of sound — China’s defense tech is not only at the cutting edge but “In some areas, it already leads the world.”

    The “by any means available” charge leveled at Beijing is a reference to what American political leaders and businesses have slammed as unfair Chinese domestic laws forcing foreign partners to divulge secrets as the cost of doing business in China, with its massive population and ever expanding markets. 

    The 140-page DIA report is titled simply “China Military Power” and the introduction presents the thesis and purpose of the study according to the following central questions:

    “What do we need to know about China?” What is China’s vision of the world and its role in it? What are Beijing’s strategic intentions and what are the implications for Washington? How are the PLA’s roles and missions changing as it becomes a more capable military force?

    For over a year Pentagon officials and Washington defense planners have been sounding the alarm over the US rival’s rapidly advancing pace of weapons tech and research. 

    Gen. Paul Selva, vice-chairman of the Joint Chiefs last year warned concerning China’s advances in hypersonic missiles“If we just sit back and don’t react we will lose our technological superiority” over China, Selva said at a think tank event last June. 

    The new Pentagon study confirms these warnings by concluding:

    “The result of this multifaceted approach to technology acquisition is a PLA (People’s Liberation Army) on the verge of fielding some of the most modern weapon systems in the world.”

    The report notes further that the PLA’s advances in air, sea and space, including in cyberspace and cybersecurity, will “enable China to impose its will in the region.”

    Photo from Defense Intelligence Agency 2019 China Military Power report.

    This comes at a moment when tensions are soaring over the Taiwan question, which China sees as part of its territory. This week a high level Chinese military official, General Li Zuocheng, told the head of the United States Navy, Admiral John Richardson, in a face to face meeting that Beijing would defend its claim to Taiwan “at any cost”

    And according to The Guardian China’s new confidence and willingness to defend the claims has Pentagon leaders worried

    Speaking to Pentagon reporters, a senior defense intelligence official said he was worried China’s military is now advanced enough that PLA generals could feel confident they could invade Taiwan.

    “The biggest concern is that as a lot of these technologies mature… [China] will reach a point where internally within their decision-making they will decide that using military force for a regional conflict is something that is more imminent,” the official said on condition of anonymity.

    Also of note is that the DIA report comments on China’s rapidly developing stealth bomber program “capable of striking regional and global targets.”

    The report says the advanced jets could enter operational use by 2025 in what would be another huge milestone for the PLA, and of extreme worry to a US military committed to continued sailing through the Taiwan Strait and other “international waters” routes near China. 

  • United States Doesn't Even Make Top 20 On Global Democracy Index

    Authored by Andrea Germanos via CommonDreams.org,

    Nation classified as a “flawed democracy”…

    A new index released this week offers a sobering look at how democracy is faring in the United States.

    According to the 2018 edition of The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index, the U.S. doesn’t even make the list of top 20—its demonstrably “flawed democracy” notching it the 25th spot.

    The ranking is based on 60 indicators spanning five interrelated categories: electoral process and pluralism; civil liberties; the functioning of government; political participation; and political culture. Each category gets a 0-10 score, with the final score being the average of those five.

    Topping out the index are Norway, Iceland, Sweden, New Zealand, and Denmark. They are each declared “full democracies,” as their scores, all above 9.22, were easily above the 8.2 threshold. With a final score of 7.96, the United States, in contrast, earned the “flawed democracy” label. The country’s highest score was 8.22, which it earned back in 2006 and again in 2008.

    North America still holds the claim for the highest average score of any region, but that’s thanks to Canada’s 9.15, which landed it the number 6 spot overall. Twenty countries (12 percent) were designated as full democracies, 14 of which are located in Western Europe.

    Rounding out the bottom of the list, meanwhile, are Chad, the Central African Republican, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Syria, and North Korea, with scores identifying them as “authoritarian regimes.”

    In the United States, according to the analysis:

    Most of the major policy actions in 2018—including the escalation of the trade war with China; diplomatic engagement with North Korea; and extensive deregulation of the energy, mining, and automotive industries—have not required congressional approval. Moreover, [President Donald] Trump has repeatedly called into question the independence and competence of the U.S. judicial system with regard to the ongoing federal investigation, led by Robert Mueller, into potential ties between Mr. Trump’s presidential campaign and Russia, and various courts’ efforts to block some of his policy orders, particularly regarding immigration. Although we expect the U.S. system of checks and balances to remain intact, this internal conflict risks further undermining public confidence in institutions. As a result, the score for political culture declined in the 2018 index.

    The analysis also found that the political participation category overall is on the rise, halting the three-year trend of a decline in the Democracy Index. For that, thanks go to women. From the new report:

    In fact, in the past decade, of all 60 indicators in the Democracy Index, women’s political participation has improved more than any other single indicator in our model. Formal and informal barriers to women’s political participation, including discriminatory laws and socioeconomic obstacles, are gradually being knocked down.

    […] In perhaps the most notable advance in women’s participation in 2018, quotas proved unnecessary; in the wake of the U.S. mid-term election in November 2018, participation of women in Congress reached an all-time high of 20.3 percent. This is just above the top threshold in our model, which sits at just 20 percent, reflecting the historical reality of extremely limited female legislative representation.

    Still, there’s not cause for breaking out the champagne just yet. While the index didn’t decline overall, it didn’t improve either.  In addition, the analysis found that global disillusionment with the functioning of government continued as did a decline in civil liberties.

  • Is Facebook's "10 Year Challenge" A Ploy To Teach Facial Recognition Algorithms

    If you have been on social media recently, you’ve likely been subjected to the “10 year challenge”, a growing trend of people posting photos of themselves from 10 years ago and comparing themselves to current photos. Like most social media “challenges”, it isn’t much of a “challenge” at all, but rather an excuse for insecure social media users to post more Snapchat and Instagram-filtered photos of themselves in hopes of proving to the world that their life has deep meaning beyond, well, being constantly on Facebook, SnapChat or Instagram. 

    But one author and expert in the field had a different take: she raised an interesting conspiratorial view that stemmed from a semi sarcastic tweet she put out on January 12. Speaker, entrepreneur and author Kate O’Neill wrote the following:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    She then took the time to write an article for Wired that “goes down the rabbit hole” a bit and runs with the conspiracy theory.

    O’Neill’s has a background in integrated experience strategy and human-centric digital transformation as a result of her “more than 20 years of experience and entrepreneurship leading innovations across technology, marketing, and operations, developing human-centric, data-guided, and brand-aligned growth and retention strategies for companies of all sizes, from startups to Fortune 500s.”

    She claims that if you wanted to train a facial recognition algorithm on age related characteristics and age progression, you would want a lot of people’s photos and you would want to know that they were all taken a fixed number of years apart – 10 years, in this case.

    There’s certainly the counter-argument that you could mine Facebook data as it stands, making the “challenge” unnecessary, but photos are sometimes put up out of order and often feature images of items that are much more than users: word images, cartoons, patterns, and others. The EXIF data on these photos is also unreliable, as people have uploaded and scanned photographs from different eras at different times.

    And so it would help if there was a clean, simple and rigorously labeled set of “then and now” photographs, much like we are seeing with the “10 year challenge”. 

    O’Neill makes a cogent and objective point: thanks to this meme challenge, there’s an extremely large data set of carefully picked photos of people from roughly 10 years ago and now.

    Some people argue that there is too much useless data for this challenge to be useful. But the article makes the argument that people (and arguably a company using this data for nefarious purposes) would know you’re supposed to place more trust in the validity of data earlier on in a trend. This just means that someone would have to be more likely to mine the data that started coming out at the beginning of the challenge. And, by now, algorithms are smart enough to separate human faces from the joke memes that people are putting up, like photos of their cats and dogs.

    Facebook denies having any involvement. They told Wired: “This is a user-generated meme that went viral on its own. Facebook did not start this trend, and the meme uses photos that already exist on Facebook. Facebook gains nothing from this meme (besides reminding us of the questionable fashion trends of 2009). As a reminder, Facebook users can choose to turn facial recognition on or off at any time.”

    Of course, the idea that the information is being used for nefarious purposes hasn’t been proven and is certainly still a conspiracy theory. But a key point O’Neill tries to get across in her piece certainly isn’t: “humans are the richest data sources for most of the technology emerging in the world”. 

    You can read the full piece here

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Today’s News 17th January 2019

  • Upgraded Chinese Stealth Jet "Overwhelmingly Superior" To US F-35 Jet: Claims Beijing Analyst

    As Lockheed Martin plans to deliver the next batch of F-35A stealth fighter jets to South Korea in March, Chinese military observers have stated that an upgraded Chinese J-20 stealth fighter will achieve “overwhelming superiority” over the F-35 in the future and that the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAF) can defend China against the “US F-35 friends circle” in the Asia-Pacific region.

    Yonhap News Agency reported the fighters would arrive by the end of March. The shipment of new stealth fighters is part of South Korea’s procurement of 40 F-35As in 2014 at the cost of more than $100 million per plane.

    South Korea is not the only Western ally in the Asia-Pacific region that has procured the stealth aircraft. Japan has deployed 10 F-35As, with 32 expected to arrive in the coming year. The Japan Air Self-Defense Force has ordered an additional 100 F-35s, which includes a variant of the aircraft called the F-35Bs, known for short takeoffs and vertical landing. 

    Australia received its two F-35As in December. The country is expected to receive more than 100 jets in the coming years.

    Washington has surrounded China with stealth fighter jets, in other words, they are building an “F-35 friend circle,” Wei Dongxu, a Beijing-based military analyst, told the Global Times on Tuesday.

    Wei said the US, Japan, and South Korea are gearing up for more joint exercises near China using the F-35.

    The stealth jets are outfitted with an advanced weapon system and capable of cruising at supersonic speeds without being detected by radar. The F-35 is considered the world’s most advanced fifth-generation fighter.

    Global Times said China “is no sitting duck in a potential clash with the US fighter jet.” The PLAF recently deployed a fifth-generation fighter of their own, dubbed the J-20. 

    “China’s fifth-generation fighter jet J-20, which has been in service under the People’s Liberation Army Air Force since early 2018, is endowed with state-of-the-art aviation and electronic technologies. Its range and weapons payload are widely considered to be better than the F-35’s, enabling it to achieve its main mission of gaining aerial superiority in a 21st Century battlefield,” Global Times said in a report.

    Wei also said the J-20 has room for significant improvement. An upgraded version that is not far from series production will have “overwhelming superiority” to the F-35.

    He noted that China’s “passive radars and meter wave radars” can detect stealth aircraft, and have the ability to deploy super high-tech missiles to destroy them.

    Global Times makes it clear at the end of the report to highlight the inefficiencies of the F-35. They first indicate the jet has experienced numerous emergency landings, in-flight malfunctions, including oxygen deprivation among crews, and engine failures.

    The jet also requires very high maintenance cost, as the radar wave-absorbing coating wears off and needs to be replaced after every flight.

    Global Times notes that the Chinese military has not publicly issued any reports concerning malfunctions of the J-20.

    The outlook is very clear: Whoever has the best fifth-generation fighter will win the next major conflict. Right now, it is between the US and the Chinese, but we do note, Russia’s Sukhoi Su-57 should not be ignored. Also, there is Iran’s IAIO Qaher-313 stealth jet, but we do not think it is operational. 

  • American Apartheid: Resurrecting Communism's South African Playbook In The Land Of The Free

    Via Wilder, Wealthy, and Wise blog,

    “Yes, wherever bicycles are broken, or menaced by International Communism, Bicycle Repair Man is ready! Ready to smash the communists, wipe them up, and shove them off the face of the earth.”

    – Monty Python’s Flying Circus

    There are times when you write something that you think is important, and you want to get it right.  This is one of those times.  I hope you find this post worthwhile.

    A few weeks ago, a very good friend sent me an article.  The article intrigued me, and I began to research the background of the article.  What I found was stunning.  The article itself is this (LINK), from Time® magazine, you don’t have to click – I’ll summarize it below.  Time™, I’ll note, very appropriately has a red border but they haven’t added the hammer and sickle yet.  Yet.

    I found this article disturbing, but it really matched with the research that I’d done up to this point.   There is a cultural shift of the Left, and the Left is moving ever farther, ever faster left.  I wrote about that here (Civil War, Neat Graphs, and Carrie Fisher’s Leg), which is probably what made my friend send the link.

    I read Tayari Jones’ Time® magazine piece.  I found it to be an example of the outcome of the most brutal form of programming and child exploitation that I’ve seen recently, though I will admit that I try to shy away from Disney® movies.  In short, her parents were Black Nationalists (Her description, not mine.  “Black Nationalists” refers to a group that wants to either repatriate to Africa or to carve out a separate nation for blacks in the United States.) that convinced a five-year-old that Gulf Oil© was responsible for killing black children in Africa so much so that the child, Tayari, would not ride in a car fueled by Gulf Oil® to the zoo

    The piece ends with simplicity.  All to the Left is joyous and moral.  All to the Right is evil death.

    Should we celebrate our tolerance and civility as we stanch the wounds of the world and the climate with a poultice of national unity?

    Jones wants to further divide us, or destroy those who don’t and won’t conform to her (undefined) viewpoints.  Also, the last time the word “poultice” was used out loud was by Granny on the Beverly Hillbillies.  But her title says it all, “There’s nothing virtuous about finding common ground.

    That led me to wonder more about the author – what was going on in her head that led to this article?  What are her ultimate goals? 

    Featured prominently in the article was the Soweto Uprising, a 1976 confrontation between black students and the police, which appears in hindsight to be an unplanned 4th Generation Warfare (The Caravan:  Warfare by Other Means) offensive.  I hit Wikipedia to learn more.  Then, there it was, the missing link.

    “No Middle Road,” an essay by Joe Slovo is listed as influential in the communist African National Congress (ANC) at that time.    The original title of the article by Jones, as enshrined in the URL, is telling:  “Moral Middle Myth.”  Obviously they are connected.  Again, from Jones:

    I find myself annoyed by the hand-wringing about how we need to find common ground. People ask how might we “meet in the middle,” as though this represents a safe, neutral and civilized space. This American fetishization of the moral middle is a misguided and dangerous cultural impulse.

    Okay.  Now you have my attention.  We have a person actively preaching division and implied violence whose suppressed essay title echoes an influential essay from 1976.  My next question was simple:  Who the heck was Joe Slovo?

    Joe Slovo was communist, born Yossel Mashel Slovo in Soviet Lithuania who moved to South Africa with his family when he was eight.  Slovo was a deeply loyal communist who admired Stalin.  He was exiled from South Africa for 27 years and spent that time launching and orchestrating terrorist strikes in South Africa while abroad.  His operations included bombings of civilians.  Slovo did have some spare time to oversee the murder and execution of people thought to be traitors to the cause, often through putting a tire around their neck, filling it with gasoline, and setting it on fire.  The nickname for this practice was “necklacing.”  Now Slovo didn’t actually do these things himself, he merely planned them and was in charge of the organization that made them happen.  See?  His hands are clean.

    Slovo was such a leftist, the only thing he on the right of is this picture.

    Slovo had to be an influence on Tayari Jones.  Understanding the influences can be important, besides, Tayari Jones didn’t mention exactly what she wanted done with those she opposes.  Maybe the essay she was influenced by would?

    I decided to look for it on the Internet, where I can find out what was on TV on NBC® on a Sunday evening in June of 1983.  I spent more time than I’d like to admit spend sifting through Marxist websites, looking for the essay.  I went to the second page of Google© results.  Exhaustive research, indeed.  I even found where Marxists who had previously posted a copy were looking for a copy to post.  It’s like the document had been purposely scrubbed from the web.  Odd – once information hits the web, it normally flies free and multiplies.  Not this.

    I finally found that the essay was included in a book, Southern Africa:  The New Politics of Revolution (Penguin/Pelican, 1976).  That’s the only place I could find it.  A seller on Amazon had a copy for less than $8, so I bought it.  It took weeks to arrive.  It was old – the pages were yellowing.  It also looked like a socialist’s mind:  it had never been opened.

    What had I expected?  The usual Marxist language designed to be confusing and cult-like.

    Whenever anyone talks like this?  They want you to nod and pretend you understand.

    No.  Slovo was very clear in his writing.  Much of what Slovo writes are about conditions and history that are unique to South Africa.  And, reconstructing and solving the problems and historical injustices of South Africa, real as they were and are now, is far beyond this post.  But Slovo very clearly sets out a battle plan that is being used against the United States right now.

    For instance, on page 118, Slovo states:  “To be born white means by definition to be born privileged . . . .” I hadn’t heard of the concept of “White Privilege” until 2014 or so, and then it was related back to an essay (White Privilege: Unpacking the Invisible Knapsack) by Peggy McIntosh, who you can read more about here in this excellent essay on Quillette: (LINK).

    The important idea is that McIntosh didn’t originate this divisive concept – Slovo wrote about it in his 1976 essay.  It may be even older, but this is the earliest reference I’ve found.  And Slovo specifically introduced it to open additional divisions in South Africa.

    Slovo continues: 

    “. . . the struggle to destroy white supremacy is ultimately bound up with the very destruction of capitalism itself.”

    In a further parallel with today, Slovo describes the history of struggle for liberation as “The Resistance” as he builds a case that his dreamed-of communist state can only be brought about via violence, which he calls “armed struggle,” rather than “killing people I don’t agree with, and also kids on my side, if we can get good pictures for the press.”

    Slovo clearly expected and desired a war.  In the time he lived, Slovo completely misread what happened in the communist takeover in Vietnam and he was thinking that the Vietnamese had won a military victory.  They had not.  The North Vietnamese and Viet Cong had been defeated in almost every engagement.  The North Vietnamese won because they demoralized the United States and made the politicians feel the war was unwinnable – clearly a Fourth Generation warfare victory.

    Ultimately the ANC realized, however dimly, that the deaths of black South Africans during the Soweto Uprising was their victory.  They won by appearing to be the victims.  And they won by creating a coalition of victims who would never feel that they could never be repaid for their pain – no reparations would ever be acceptable.

    Page 205 contains the telling sentence:  “The struggle can no longer be centered on pleas for civil rights or for reforms within the framework of white dominance; it is a struggle for people’s power, in which mass ferment and the growing importance of the armed factor go hand in hand.”  Slovo worked to use the ethnic divisions in the country to create a situation where raw power would end up in the hands of the communists.

    There we have it:  the end goal is not rights, or prosperity, or freedom, or liberty.  The end goal is naked power.

    Back to the United States, we find that could never happen here:

    Nothing you have is yours. Let me be clear: Nothing you have is yours. Also, Let me be see through: Reparations are not donations, because we are not your charity, tax write off, or good deed for the day. You are living off of stolen resources, stolen land, exploited labor, appropriated culture and the murder of our people. Nothing you have is yours.

    Reparations for us are not only necessary because we are economically harmed, exploited and stolen from — while the violence against us is never acknowledged — but because in order for us to create and move work for Black liberation, it requires resources and MONEY. We live in a white supremacist capitalist world, so ain’t no spinning webs of lies around “money isn’t the answer.” It is because money and exploitation and power are interconnected concepts of violence. Y’all spent hundreds of years selling, mutilating, raping and beating our bodies and labor but you think money doesn’t matter to our freedom and liberation? Cute. Write me a check for this shade because it comes with 400 years of trauma.

    We need housing, transportation, food, clothes, free space for meetings and work space; we need laptops, cell phones, encrypted systems for communication, solar power and LAND. Stop playing. Y’all really thought pulling up to the protest in your Hyundai was gonna be enough? Nah. You have to give us everything we need and more, because even if it means you go without — it doesn’t matter because that’s how we been living for 400+ years. Reparations will never be negotiable. So if you’re not willing to talk money, you are not here for #BlackLivesMatter as a movement or for us as individuals.

    (H/T Liberty’s Torch (LINK)) Original that I tracked down is wearyourvoicemag.com.

    I thought this quote was a parody until I found it at the website it was originally posted on.  It appears that she’s serious.  That’s from Ashleigh Shackelford, who seems really nice when talking to people that support her, as that passage above was a shout-out to her white supporters.  I left her spelling, emphasis, and capitalization intact.  Ms. Shackelford is the product of the same mentality of Marxist Joe Slovo and (I’m assuming) Marxist Tayari Jones.

    As I wrote about earlier (Seneca’s Cliff and You), it’s far easier to destroy something than to make something.  In our culture, today, we actively have Marxists attempting to undermine the fabric of our society using a variety of weapons, and especially trying to create a majority coalition of disaffected people to destabilize society to create, in effect, an American version of apartheid to fight.  This is one reason that illegal immigration is actively supported – it brings in people entirely unrelated to the current society.  Outside of the future leftist votes, this group is used to help create additional fragmentation in the country.

    He’s going to have to work awfully hard.

    One thing we’ve seen – when this tactic works, ending it is difficult – look at the Protestants and Catholics in Ireland.  Once before in the comments on this blog people brought up the Irish Troubles and people started arguing about who was responsible in the comments.  On this blog.  In 2018.

    I was certain that when the Soviet Union fell, that the world was safe.  In my mind, it should have been clear from the horrors of Cambodia, to the people of the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe winning their own freedom from oppression that the subject was closed.  Even if people couldn’t see that communism was evil, at least they could see that it didn’t work, right?

    No.  Like Jason or Michael Myers communism keeps coming back.  It appears that, like Freddy Kruger, communism will keep going as long as people like Slovo, Jones, and Shackelford will fight and kill (even kill people on their own side) for power.  But only as long as there are people stupid enough to believe them.

    Thankfully there’s no one like that in the United States.

  • Federal Workers Taking Odd Jobs To Make Ends Meet During Shutdown

    Federal employees affected by the partial government shutdown are turning to various side jobs to make ends meet, according to the Associated Press

    Some, such as immigration lawyer Cheryl Inzunza Blum of Tucson has been renting out a room on Airbnb for extra cash – capitalizing on the busy winter travel season in Arizona after she stopped receiving paychecks for her government contract work at a local immigration lawyer. She says she’s working for free since she has clients who depend on her – some of whom are detained or have court hearings. 

    Cheryl Inzunza Blum

    But she also has bills: her Arizona state bar dues, malpractice insurance and a more than $500 phone bill for the past two months because she uses her phone so heavily for work. Blum bills the government for her work, but the office that pays her hasn’t processed any paychecks to her since before the shutdown began. So she’s been tapping every source she can to keep herself afloat — even her high school- and college-aged children — and is even thinking about driving for Uber and Lyft as well. –AP

    “So after working in court all day I’m going to go home and get the room super clean because they’re arriving this evening,” she said, referring to her Airbnb renters. 

    “I have a young man who’s visiting town to do some biking, and he’s going to come tomorrow and stay a week,” she added. “I’m thrilled because that means immediate money. Once they check in, the next day there’s some money in my account.”

    Other federal workers are driving for Uber, turning to handyman work, and looking for traditional temporary gigs in order to help pay the bills during the longest shutdown in US history. 

    Fortunately for unpaid federal workers, the shutdown is happening during a relatively strong economy. 

    The Labor Department reported that employers posted 6.9 million jobs in November, the latest figures available. That’s not far from the record high of 7.3 million reached in August.

    Roughly 8,700 Uber driver positions are advertised nationwide on the SnagAJob website, while Lyft advertises about 3,000.

    But the gig economy doesn’t pay all that well — something the furloughed government workers are finding out. –AP

    48-year-old Chris George of Hemet, California has been driving for Lyft after going unpaid from his job as a forestry technician supervisor for the US Department of Agriculture forest service. He averages around $10 for every hour he drives, not including gas. 

    Fortunately for George, he is about to receive $450 in weekly unemployment benefits, however they haven’t kicked in yet so he’s taking jobs as a handyman or whatever else is available. 

    “I’ve just been doing side jobs when they come along,” George said on Monday. “I had two last week, and I don’t know what this week’s going to bring.”

    Another furloughed worker, George Jankowski, has been receiving $100 per week in unemployment, however he says it’s barely enough to get by. On Monday, he helped a friend move out of a third-floor apartment in Cheyenne, Wyoming – making $30. Jankowski, an Air Force veteran, works at a USDA call center and does not expect to receive back pay due to the fact that he’s paid hourly as a part-time employee.

    George Jankowski

    He calls the situation “grueling.” 

    “It’s embarrassing to ask for money to pay bills or ask to borrow money to, you know, eat,” he told AP

    Recruiters are taking advantage of the shutdown

    Several employers have been taking advantage of the shutdown to try and hire workers, at least temporarily. 

    Missy Koefod of the Atlanta-based cocktail-mixer manufacturer 18.21 Bitters said the company needs temporary help in the kitchen, retail store and getting ready for a trade show, and decided to put out the word to furloughed federal workers on social media that they were hiring.

    “I can’t imagine not getting paid for a couple of weeks,” Koefod said.

    American Labor Services, a staffing agency that employs 500 people a week in Rhode Island and Massachusetts, sent out an appeal to furloughed federal workers on Monday, asking them to get in touch for clerical or light-industrial work. –AP

    Some might not realize that they could get something temporary, it could last for a short period,” said American Labor Services CEO, Ben Kaplan. 

  • Dossier Shocker: Top DOJ Official Sounded Alarm, Warned Of Clinton Connection And Possible Bias

    The Justice Department was fully aware that the notorious Steele Dossier was connected to Hillary Clinton and might be biased – a crucial detail which was omitted just weeks later from the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) warrant used to spy on the Trump campaign, reports John Solomon of The Hill

    Bruce Ohr

    According to Solomon’s sources – which have proven impeccable, the former #4 Department of Justice (DOJ) official, Bruce Ohr – who had extensive contact with Steele, briefed “both senior FBI and DOJ officials in summer 2016 about Christopher Steele’s Russia dossier, explicitly cautioning that the British intelligence operative’s work was opposition research connected to Hillary Clinton’s campaign and might be biased.” 

    Ohr’s activities, chronicled in handwritten notes and congressional testimony I gleaned from sources, provide the most damning evidence to date that FBI and DOJ officials may have misled federal judges in October 2016 in their zeal to obtain the warrant targeting Trump adviser Carter Page just weeks before Election Day. –The Hill

    Ohr’s activities also contradict a key argument made by House Democrats in their attempts to downplay the significance of the Steele Dossier; that the FBI claimed it was “unaware of any derogatory information” about Steele, and that the former MI6 operative was “never advised … as to the motivation behind the research.” The FBI further “speculates” that those who hired Steele were “likely looking for information to discredit” Trump’s campaing. 

    There was no “speculation” going on by the FBI. Thanks to Ohr’s warning, they absolutely knew about Steele’s bias against Trump while working for a Clinton-funded project to gather harmful opposition research on him. 

    Ohr had firsthand knowledge about the motive and the client: He had just met with Steele on July 30, 2016, and Ohr’s wife, Nellie, worked for Fusion GPS, the same firm employing Steele.

    “I certainly told the FBI that Fusion GPS was working with, doing opposition research on Donald Trump,” Ohr told congressional investigators, adding that he warned the FBI that Steele expressed bias during their conversations.

    I provided information to the FBI when I thought Christopher Steele was, as I said, desperate that Trump not be elected,” he added. “So, yes, of course I provided that to the FBI.” –The Hill

    When lawmakers pressed Ohr as to why he would volunteer that information to the FBI, he answered “In case there might be any kind of bias or anything like that,” adding later “So when I provided it to the FBI, I tried to be clear that this is source information, I don’t know how reliable it is. You’re going to have to check it out and be aware.”

    Ohr also says he told the FBI that his wife and Steele were working for Fusion GPS – the same firm hired by the Clinton campaign through intermediary law firm Perkins Coie, and that they were conduction Trump-Russia research at the behest of Clinton’s camp.

    Glenn Simpson (left), Christopher Steele, Bruce and Nellie Ohr

    “These guys were hired by somebody relating to, who’s related to the Clinton campaign and be aware,” Ohr told lawmakers, explaining how he warned the bureau. 

    Perkins Coie eventually admitted to paying Fusion GPS, disguising the payments as legal bills when it was in fact opposition research

    When Ohr was asked if he knew of any connection between the Steele Dossier and the DNC, he said he thought the project was really connected to the Clinton campaign, saying: “I didn’t know they were employed by the DNC but I certainly said yes that they were working for, you know, they were somehow working, associated with the Clinton campaign.” 

    “I also told the FBI that my wife worked for Fusion GPS or was a contractor for GPS, Fusion GPS,” he added. 

    Ohr divulged his first contact with the FBI was on July 31, 2016, when he reached out to then-Deputy Director Andrew McCabe and FBI attorney Lisa Page. He then was referred to the agents working Russia counterintelligence, including Peter Strzok, the now-fired agent who played a central role in starting the Trump collusion probe.

    But Ohr’s contacts about the Steele dossier weren’t limited to the FBI. He said in August 2016 — nearly two months before the FISA warrant was issued — that he was asked to conduct a briefing for senior Justice officials.

    Those he briefed included Andrew Weissmann, then the head of DOJ’s fraud section; Bruce Swartz, longtime head of DOJ’s international operations, and Zainab Ahmad, an accomplished terrorism prosecutor who, at the time, was assigned to work with Lynch as a senior counselor.

    Ahmad and Weissmann would go on to work for Mueller, the special prosecutor overseeing the Russia probe. –The Hill

    In early 2018, Democrats on the House Intelligence Committee sought to downplay Ohr’s connections to Steele during their investigation – insisiting Ohr only notified the FBI about Steele after Steele was fired by the FBI in November 2016 for improper contacts with the media. 

    The memo from House Democrats – led by Rep. Adam Schiff’s (D-CA), says that Ohr’s contact with the FBI only began “weeks after the election and more than a month after the Court approved the initial FISA application.”

    Ohr’s testimony refutes Schiff’s memo, making clear he was in contact with FBI and DOJ officials long before the FISA warrant or the 2016 US election

    Not only that, “Ohr explicitly told the FBI that Steele was desperate to defeat the man he was investigating and was biased,” according to Solomon, and the FBI didn’t have to guess as to Steele’s motives.

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  • Missile Defense Review To Feature Space-Based Interceptors To Counter Iran, North Korea

    A space-based series of sensors that would coordinate with missile interceptor sites in the continental US to counter ballistic missiles threats posed by countries like North Korea and Iran? This is but one of the jaw dropping newly proposed defense technologies that will be highlighted as part of a long-awaited report on the status of the country’s missile defense capabilities to be unveiled during President Trump’s visit to the Pentagon Thursday. 

    The president will make the visit to reveal the Missile Defense Review, which studies and assesses US missile defense capabilities and needs under in order to inform the White House’s Pentagon funding request for the upcoming fiscal year 2020 budget. Crucially, it’s expected to outline changes in America’s missile defense strategy toward Russia and China, as well as present key avenues of upcoming research, such as futuristic and experimental advanced tech systems like laser intercept capabilities and space-based detection systems

    The congressionally mandated review is the first of its kind to be undertaken since 2010, and though it was scheduled to be released in late 2017, it was finally completed in October of last year — pushed back in part due to the administration’s desire to expand the scope of the study from ballistic missile defense to all missile defense.

    Likely the most provocative and headline grabbing part of the review will be space related defense. According to ABC News:

    According to a senior administration official, the review looks at the development of new space-based sensors that could detect long-range missile before they are launched and calls for the study of whether lasers could be used to counter ballistic missiles that are launched by rogue states.

    Statements from senior Pentagon officials previewing what to expect have indicated these new space capabilities could become the next big layer of missile defense against Iran and North Korea. “Space is key to the next step of missile defense,” said one official to ABC.

    Potential plans and areas of further research will include “early warning systems” in space that could track missiles as they are being prepared for launch, perhaps ever more crucial given current reports of Russian and Chinese rapid development of hypersonic threats

    The Missile Defense Review is also expected to explore “a space-based interceptor that could fire rockets into space, directed at an incoming missile,” according to senior officials. This will also include study of the use of what an official described as “directed energy” against incoming missiles, possibly through laser technology. On these and other technologies that sound straight out of Star Trek, the official said “we think is worth looking into”.

    Specifically on the North Korea nuclear and long-range ballistic missile threat, the following bizarre and futuristic sounding weapon has been described as under consideration as an avenue of research:

    ABC News has learned that one concept being explored for countering the North Korean missile threat in the future is using a new solid state powered laser on a high-altitude drone. The long-range laser would be able to destroy a North Korean missile while in the initial boost phase of its launch.

    “This is really a comprehensive look at our missile defense capabilities and programs and posture,” a senior administration official said of the report’s release. “Both what we have today, what we’d like to make improvements to and then what are the next generation programs we’d like to invest in to get ahead and stay ahead of the threat.”

    Both the private defense technology industry as well as foreign nations and their defense sectors are expected to pay close attention to what’s unveiled later on Thursday, especially competitors in this arena already touting their own cutting edge weaponry such as Beijing and Moscow. 

  • Canada's Forgotten Man: Energy Workers

    Authored by Andrew Moran via Liberty Nation,

    Canada’s energy sector is home to the nation’s forgotten man…

    All over the world, the forgotten man is rising up, reminding the ruling elite of his existence. Fed up with leaders catering to the whims of 0.05% of society, or instituting policies that impact their pocketbooks, the working folks of America, Italy, Brazil, and France are making sure their voices are heard in the political arena. This uncomfortable fact is sending shivers up and down their masters’ spines, including those in the Great White North.

    Ivory Tower

    For so long, Canadians were passive and apathetic about how they were treated by their rulers. They just drowned their sorrows of excessive taxation and abuse of the public purse in a Tim Hortons double-double and a plate of poutine. That’s just the way it is, they cried. There’s nothing to do, they grieved.

    But then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau happened.

    The trust fund baby is a man who continually talks down to those who are not like him. By encouraging young people to use “peoplekind,” openly wishing that Ottawa would embrace a Chinese-style government, and suggesting citizens with real concerns about Syrian migrants are racist, Trudeau has begun to light the populist spark from British Columbia to Newfoundland.

    To truly comprehend the left’s disdain for blue-collar Canadians who do not accept the premises of leftist dogma, you will need to travel to Calgary, Alberta. At a recent demonstration of energy workers, Liberal Mayor Naheed Nenshi treated the crowd like kindergarteners:

    “Well, for those of you who are saying, ‘No I don’t believe in climate change,’ good luck changing hearts and minds because we have to be able to say that there is no difference between standing up for the economy and standing up for the environment.”

    Nenshi shifted his remarks into French, but he received pushback from the crowd. This led the condescending mayor to threaten the crowd with detention: “If you want someone to listen to you, you have to speak their language.”

    It is this mockery, condescension, and dismissal that is producing discontent nationwide, particularly in the energy sector. In the era of Trudeaumania 2.0, politicians from major urban centers turn their noses up at workers employed in the oil, gas, and coal industries. Journalists, accepting a $600 million bribe from the federal government, refrain from calling out such deplorable behavior. Instead, they report favorably on imposing carbon taxes, delaying pipelines, and implementing egregious environmental regulations in the resource-rich country.

    Of course, the energy sector’s tax dollars are good enough to be used against them, extending generous grants and subsidies to the politically-connected green industry. Why? To appease the globalists who are using the religion of global warming to control populations.

    But Canadians are no longer sitting idly by. They’re mad as hell and are sending clear signals that they’re not going to take it anymore.

    Polite No More

    In December, a convoy of trucks in Grand Prairie, Alberta “touched its tail” as it rallied in the city impacted by several government policies, including the carbon tax, Bill C-48, and Bill C-69. While the carbon tax is terrifying for all Canadians, C-48 and C-69 mainly target energy; the former prohibits oil tanker traffic on British Columbia’s northern coast and the latter dramatically transforms the process of environmental assessments for every major infrastructure project, including the ever-important trans-province energy project proposals.

    The protests against the levy and Bills C-48 and C-69 are only intensifying. Another Alberta-based convoy of trucks is taking its frustrations to Ottawa next month.

    “We want to make our voices heard,” James Robson, the grassroots Canada Action manager, told The Star. “Families are supported by the energy sector. It’s one of the most important economic drivers in Canada.”

    The Trudeau government seems indifferent to the growing opposition to carbon taxes and punishing legislative blitzkrieg. This should not come as a surprise. Energy Minister Catherine McKenna, also known as Climate Barbie, encouraged a grain farmer to just adopt artificial intelligence to combat the costs of the carbon tax.

    It is this level of arrogance that puts Trudeau and his minions out of touch with typical Canadians.

    The Forgotten Man’s Resurgence

    Is Canada igniting another Tea Party, Arab Spring, or Yellow Vest movement?

    Perhaps the modesty of your average Canadian will never concede to something so iconic, instead preferring to just have their voices heard by the central planners who think they’re better than someone from rural Alberta or the Maritimes. Canada’s thought police and gatekeepers of permissible opinion are warning about the dangers of populism, but if they wish to quash its inevitable ascent to mainstream politics, they should quit treating voters not from Toronto, Vancouver, or Ottawa either like they don’t exist or as if they’re children riding the short bus.

  • China Injects Gargantuan 1.1 Trillion In Liquidity This Week

    Following what Bloomberg calculated was a record net reverse repo liquidity injection on Wednesday, when the PBOC injected a whopping 560 billion yuan of liquidity into the financial system via open market operations, the Chinese central bank has done it again and in Thursday’s open market operation, it sold 250BN yuan in 7 Day repos (slightly below yesterday’s record 350BN), and 150BN in 28 Day repos, which net of maturities resulted in a whopping net 380BN yuan ($56.2BN) liquidity injection.

    This brings the net liquidity injection this week to a near record 1.14 Trillion yuan (Monday 20BN, Tuesday 180BN, Wednesday 560BN and Thursday 380BN) and the week is not even over yet – should tomorrow’s reverse repo be of similar magnitude, then this week will go down in history as China’s biggest liquidity injection on record.

    As yesterday, today’s massive liquidity injection was aimed at “keeping reasonable and sufficient liquidity in banking system as liquidity falls relatively fast during peak season for tax payments,” according to a statement from the PBOC, although why this year should be such a significant outlier, even when factoring in the liquidity needs ahead of the Lunar new year, to prior periods was not exactly clear.

    There is, of course, a much simpler explanation: with Chinese economic and trade data turning from bad to worse with every passing day, Beijing’s response is increasingly one of a panicked “spasm”, as Nomura’s Charlie McElligott wrote today when he noted that with regard to the response of Chinese authorities in addressing their economic slowdown and credit crunch, “it had to get worse before it got better”—recently collapsing Chinese data has now clearly forced an escalation of easing-/stimulus-/liquidity- policies, as follows:

    • Two days ago in a press conference between the PBoC, the MoF and the NDRC, Beijing announced new tax cuts, fresh measures to stabilize auto consumption and an announcement that authorities are supportive of increasing issuance of local government “special bonds” to stimulate infrastructure spending were all made in a “stimulus” spasm.
    • Overnight Chinese Premier Li has called for more investments in infrastructure and services, while also voicing support for a “stepping-up” of targeted economic controls from authorities.

    And, as discussed in this post and last night, the annual PBoC liquidity injection to offset the pre-Lunar New Year holiday-/pre-tax payment peak-/maturation of MLF funds- cash drain went full mental” last night, with the Chinese central bank injecting a record 560B Yuan ($84B USD) into the system using 7d reverse repo operations—the largest 1d cash injection in their history, and was followed by a not much smaller 380B Yuan injection today.

    It is worth noting that this short-term liquidity injection adds to the larger “credit impulse” being re-engineered by Chinese authorities, which on the headline level came in as “better than consensus” estimates across new aggregate social financing & new loans.

    Unfortunately for Chinese stock bulls, this week’s record liquidity injections have had no impact whatsoever on Chinese stocks, which were unchanged yesterday and are flat on Thursday, while S&P futures are fractionally lower, amid growing fears that the trade war storm is back on after the WSJ reported that  U.S. authorities are investigating Huawei for stealing trade secrets, while according to a separate report, Apple plans to cut back hiring for some divisions, and finally Singapore exports unexpectedly fell, a trifecta of news hitting the market’s three weakest points: trade, earnings and the slowing global economy.

    The bigger issue is that if not even China can move the needle with short-term liquidity injections, and a long-term monetary intervention is out of the question for now due to China’s record debt, while fiscal stimulus takes months if not quarters to kick in, once the sugar rush from the current bear market rally is over, the hangover will be especially brutal.

  • Judge Rules Investors Suing Musk Can Subpoena Banks, Grimes And Reporters To Preserve Records

    It was just a few days ago that we reported on the latest installment of the Elon Musk and Azealia Banks feud, which now appears to be escalating. Banks’ fire for Musk was recently stoked by a motion filed by the Tesla CEO’s lawyers to prevent Banks, Musk’s ex-girlfriend Grimes, and several media organizations from being subpoenaed as part of a shareholder lawsuit against Musk.

    Now, it looks like we are one step closer to getting a chance at seeing what was on the mind (and on the devices) of Banks, Grimes and some of the reporters who were involved with them directly after the CEO put out his now infamous “funding secured” tweet. Banks was a guest in Musk’s home around the time Musk sent out the Tweet, reportedly invited by Musk’s then girlfriend, Grimes.

    According to Bloomberg, U.S. District Judge Edward Chen in San Francisco ordered on Tuesday that although Tesla and Musk themselves cannot be subpoenaed, Banks, Grimes and reporters involved with the situation immediately after it happened could be subpoenaed and asked to preserve records. Chen said “that asking for potentially relevant evidence to not be destroyed won’t impose any burdens on Tesla or Musk”. 

    Business Insider also reported on Wednesday that a motion to serve subpoenas against Banks, Grimes, Business Insider, Gizmodo and the New York Times was granted.

    Adam Apton, attorney for the Plaintiffs stated: “Ms. Boucher and Ms. Banks were in close contact with Mr. Musk before and after the tweet and are believed to be in possession of relevant evidence concerning Mr. Musk’s motives. Business Insider also appears to have relevant evidence in light of its relationship with Ms. Banks.”

    Shareholder attorneys are trying to place Banks in Musk’s house during the fallout from Musk’s famous tweet. Banks had previously posted in depth about her time staying at Elon‘s home, claiming that while there, Grimes was comforting Musk about “being too stupid not to go on Twitter while on acid”. Banks claims she saw Musk “scrounging for investors” at the time of the incident. 

    Curiously, the judge also said that “lead plaintiff’s claim that defendants have a practice of trying to silence critics is not well supported”. Perhaps he hasn’t heard of Montana Skeptic – or Martin Tripp.

    Arguably, the possible results of any forthcoming subpoenas – as they sometimes do in lawsuits – may open up a new can of worms if any (or all) of the dirt Azealia Banks claims to have on Elon Musk turns out to not be fabricated.

    Banks took to Instagram on last week writing “They are still slighting [sic] me like I don’t have plenty more dirt to spill on Elon. This is going to get extremely ugly…Elon will learn very soon who is more powerful of us two.”

    The preservation of such material, from immediately after Musk put out his “funding secured” tweet may finally help answer the question of what was going on in Elon Musk’s head at the time of the incident. We can’t wait to see where this goes. 

  • Quantitative Brainwashing

    Authored by Jeff Thomas via InternationalMan.com,

    We’re all familiar with the term, “quantitative easing.” It’s described as meaning, “A monetary policy in which a central bank purchases government securities or other securities from the market in order to lower interest rates and increase the money supply.”

    Well, that sounds reasonable… even beneficial. But, unfortunately, that’s not really the whole story.

    When QE was implemented, the purchasing power was weak and both government and personal debt had become so great that further borrowing would not solve the problem; it would only postpone it and, in the end, exacerbate it. Effectively, QE is not a solution to an economic problem, it’s a bonus of epic proportions, given to banks by governments, at the expense of the taxpayer.

    But, of course, we shouldn’t be surprised that governments have passed off a massive redistribution of wealth from the taxpayer to their pals in the banking sector with such clever terms. Governments of today have become extremely adept at creating euphemisms for their misdeeds in order to pull the wool over the eyes of the populace.

    At this point, we cannot turn on the daily news without being fed a full meal of carefully- worded mumbo jumbo, designed to further overwhelm whatever small voices of truth may be out there.

    Let’s put this in perspective for a moment.

    For millennia, political leaders have been in the practice of altering, confusing and even obliterating the truth, when possible. And it’s probably safe to say that, for as long as there have been media, there have been political leaders doing their best to control them.

    During times of war, political leaders have serially restricted the media from simply telling the truth. During the American civil war, President Lincoln shut down some 300 newspapers and arrested some 14,000 journalists who had the audacity to contradict his statements to the public.

    As extreme as that may sound, this practice has been more the rule in history than the exception.

    In most countries, in most eras, some publications go against the official story line and may very well pay a price for doing so. But, other publications go along with the official story line to a greater or lesser degree and are often rewarded for doing so.

    It should come as no surprise, then, that media outlets often come to report the news in a less than accurate manner.

    Mark Twain is claimed to have said, “If you don’t read the newspaper, you’re uninformed. If you do read the newspaper, you’re misinformed.” Quite so.

    Still, only fifty years ago, much of the then “Free World” enjoyed a relatively objective Press. Even on television, reporters such as Walter Cronkite, Huntley and Brinkley, etc. presented the news in a bland manner. It wasn’t very exciting, but at least it was relatively balanced and, to this day, most people who were around then still have no idea as to whether reporters like Walter Cronkite were liberal or conservative. Although he was a committed Democrat, he never allowed that to significantly colour his reporting.

    But today, we have a very different corporate structure as regards the media. The same six corporations hold the controlling interest of over 80% of the media. And those same corporations also own a controlling interest in the military industrial complex, Wall Street, the major banks, Big Pharma, etc.

    What we’re witnessing today is media having been transformed into something more akin to a three-ring circus than journalism of old. This is no accident.

    The present travesty that is the 21st century media, is journalism in name only.

    So, why should this be so?

    Well, as it happens, people tend not to like governments dominating their lives – simple as that.

    And yet, the primary objective of any government is to increase its size and power as rapidly as the populace will tolerate it. The only reason that they rarely do this quickly, is that they can’t get away with it. Like boiling a frog, it takes time to lull the populace into submission, bit by bit.

    Once having had enough time to do so, there comes a point at which the government becomes woefully top-heavy, as well as unworkably autocratic. At such times, all that’s necessary to make people rebel is an economic crisis.

    Such is the case in much of the world today – the EU, the US, Canada, etc.. Even in their arrogance, the powers that be have to be aware that they’re right at the tipping point. An economic crisis would almost certainly push the situation over the edge.

    When truth threatens to undermine machinations for self-aggrandizement, individuals tend to obfuscate in order to delay the inevitable fallout. Governments are no different.

    So it was that, in 1999, the largest banks entered into a massive lending scam that would most certainly collapse within a decade. However, before putting the scam in place, they arranged for a “bailout” by the government, which would effectively pass the bill to the taxpayer, while the banks themselves simply increased their own wealth massively.

    Of course, QE, as massive as it was, was a mere Band-Aid solution. All those involved (big business and the government) understood that it would hang like a sword of Damocles over the economy until it inevitably came crashing down – a fate far worse than if QE had never been implemented.

    And so, for those entities to have invested into the domination of the media was, in fact, essential. Had they not done so, it’s entirely likely that, with a free press, the man on the street would, by now, have figured out that he’d been hoodwinked.

    Thus do we see the journalistic equivalent of Quantitative Brainwashing, in which the inevitable realization is delayed for as long as possible.

    And, in order to make sure that the public do not figure out what’s been done to them, the news reporting becomes Orwellian in its endless repetition of a false narrative.

    It is, however, true that, “You can’t fool all of the people all of the time.” Eventually, the Band-Aid peels back to reveal an infection that’s far beyond what had been generally perceived. It then falls away in layers, as increasing numbers of people become aware that they’ve been scammed – that the media is entirely corrupt and that the media’s owners – big business – have, with the enthusiastic compliance of the government, robbed them on a wholesale basis.

    Historically, that’s when the jig is up. What happens then is a matter of historic record.

    *  *  *

    Clearly, there are many strange things afoot in the world. Distortions of markets, distortions of culture. It’s wise to wonder what’s going to happen, and to take advantage of growth while also being prepared for crisis. How will you protect yourself in the next crisis? See our PDF guide that will show you exactly how. Click here to download it now.

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Today’s News 16th January 2019

  • Greece Fined €200MM Over Chinese Tax Fraud Network

    While president Trump is cracking down on Chinese technology theft “transfer” in the US, with Canada somehow caught in the middle of the ongoing crossfire (as random Canadians are now getting arrested on the mainland in retaliation for Trump’s aggressive practices), it has emerged that China’s Belt and Road initiative may be nothing more than one giant, global tax fraud/trade laundering operation.

    Take Greece for example, where the European Union’s Anti-Fraud Office (OLAF) just issued a fine of more than 200 million euros to Greece for failing to stop a wide-scale tax fraud by Chinese criminal gangs importing ultra-cheap goods through the country’s largest port of Piraeus, Politico reported on Monday.

    The Chinese criminal network, which took advantage of Greece’s arguably most valuable asset, the port of Piraeus which has been dubbed “China’s Gateway into Europe“, dodged import duties and value-added tax on imported footwear and clothing items, and represents merely the latest “loophole” that Chinese criminals utilize to bypass China’s draconian firewall.

    “OLAF can confirm that it has concluded an investigation concerning the fraudulent import of undervalued textiles and shoes into Greece in the period 1 January 2015 to 31 May 2018,” OLAF was quoted as telling Politico in a statement when asked on the investigation it had conducted.

    “Based on its findings, OLAF has issued a financial recommendation to Greek Customs to recover the sum of 202.3 million euros in lost customs duties related to the fraudulently under-declared values for such products,” it added.

    Piraeus is part of China’s Belt and Road infrastructure project; it was acquired by China’s COSCO Shipping, the largest shipping company in the world, in 2016 when the Chinese shipping giant acquired a 51% stake. This cemented the entrepôt’s significance to the future of Sino-European trade and its critical position on China’s Maritime Silk Road as China’s critical hub into the Mediterranean Sea and from there, into the Atlantic Ocean and beyond.

    As Altay Alti, associate professor at Turkey’s Koç University affirmed: ‘Piraeus has become a gate of entry into the European market for the Chinese.’ Indeed, this is no secret and is highlighted as a main priority in the port authority’s strategic plan.

    The Port of Piraeus and the surrounding regions have long functioned as a Mediterranean gateway for peoples, goods, ideas and beliefs. And now Greece’s historic gateway is nothing more than an easy way for Chinese “criminal gangs” to avoid paying taxes. And with countless other such “Belt and Road” gateways…

    … one should perhaps ask if China’s economy is in dire straits as a result of an unprecedented rise in China’s underground economy.

  • Re-Colonisation

    Authored by Therry Meyssan via Voltaire Network,

    One of the consequences of the successive ends of the bipolar and unipolar world is the re-establishment of colonial projects. One after the other, the French, Turkish and English have publicly declared the return of their colonial ambitions. We still need to know what form they will adopt in the 21st century…

    The French Empire

    The French Empire “bestows” civilisation

    For a decade we have been revealing the incongruity of the French desire to re-establish its authority over its old colonies. This was the logic behind the nomination by President Nicolas Sarkozy of Bernard Kouchner as Minister for Foreign Affairs. Kouchner replaced the French Revolutionary idea of « The Declaration of the Rights of Man and of the Citizen » with the Anglo-Saxon notion of « Human Rights ». Later, his friend President François Hollande declared, during a Press conference on the fringes of the UN General Assembly, that it was time to re-establish a mandate over Syria. The great grand-nephew of ambassador François George-Picot (of the Sykes-Picot agreement), ex-President Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, spoke of this even more clearly. This should help us better to understand the desire of President Emmanuel Macron to continue the war against Syria, without the United States.

    There has always been a « colonial party » in France which crosses all political parties and acts as a lobby in the service of the wealthy class. Just as in every period when it becomes difficult for unscrupulous capitalists to crush the national work-force, the myth of colonial conquest resurfaces. If the « Yellow Vests » revolt, let us continue with the « exploitation of men by other men » on the backs of the Syrians.

    Long ago, this form of domination hid, according to the words of Jules Ferry – under whose auspices François Hollande consecrated his son mandate – behind the duty of « bestowing civilisation ». Today, it aims at protecting the people whose elected leaders are qualified as « dictators ».

    France is not the only ancient colonial power to act in this way. Turkey quickly followed on.

    The Ottoman Empire

    The Ottoman Empire is founded on the ignorance of its subjects. It has closed schools in the Arab world.

    Three months after the attempted assassination and aborted coup d’état of July 2016, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan gave his inaugural speech from the university which bears his name (RTEÜ). He delivered a list of the ambitions of the Turkish Republic since its creation and those of his new régime. Making an explicit reference to the « National Oath » (Misak-ı Millî), which was adopted by the Ottoman Parliament on 12 February 1920, he justified his irredentism.

    This Oath, which was the foundation of the passage of the Ottoman Empire to the Turkish Republic, lays claim to the territory in the North-East of Greece (Western Thrace and the Dodecanese), all of Cyprus, the North of Syria (including Idlib, Aleppo and Al-Hasakah), and the North of Iraq (including Mosul).

    Currently, the Empire in re-formation already occupies the North of Cyprus (the pseudo « Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus »), the North-West of Syria, and a small part of Iraq. For all these areas, where the Turkish language and currency apply, prefects (« wali ») have been nominated, and their offices are situated in the White Palace of Ankara.

    *  *  *

    The British Empire

    The British Empire on which the sun never sets

    As for the United Kingdom, it has been hesitating for two years about its future after the Brexit.

    A little after the arrival of Donald Trump at the White House, Prime Minister Theresa May went to the United States. Speaking to the representatives of the Republican Party, she proposed re-establishing the Anglo-Saxon leadership of the rest of the world. But President Trump has been elected to liquidate these imperial dreams, not to share them.

    Disappointed, Theresa May then travelled to China in order to propose that President Xi Jinping share control of international exchanges. The City, she said, was ready to ensure the convertibility of Western currencies into Yuan. But President Xi had not been elected to do business with an heiress of the power which had dismantled his country and imposed on the Chinese their opium war.

    Theresa May tried a third version with the Commonwealth. Some of the ex-colonies of the Crown, like India, are today enjoying powerful growth and could become precious commercial partners. Symbolically, the heir to the throne, Crown Prince Charles, was raised to the Presidency of this association. Mrs. May announced that we are on our way to a Global Britain.

    In an interview with the Sunday Telegraph on 30 December 2018, the British Minister for Defence, Gavin Williamson, published his analysis of the situation. Since the fiasco of the Suez Canal in 1956, the United Kingdom has implemented a policy of decolonisation, and has withdrawn its troops from the rest of the world. Today, it conserves permanent military bases only in Gibraltar, Cyprus, Diego Garcia and the « Falklands », to give these islands their imperial title. For the last 63 years, London has been oriented towards the European Union, invented by Winston Churchill, but to which, initially, he never imagined that England would belong. The Brexit « tears this policy to shreds ». From now on, « the United Kingdom is back as a global power ».

    London is planning to open two permanent military bases. The first will probably be in Asia (Singapore or Brunei), and the second in Latin America – most likely in Guyana, in order to participate in the new stage of the Rumsfeld-Cebrowski strategy of the destruction of those regions of the world which are not connected to globalisation. After the « African Great Lakes », the « Greater Middle East », it’s time for the « Caribbean Basin ». The war will probably start with an invasion of Venezuela by Colombia (pro-US), Brazil (pro-Israëli) and Guyana (pro-British).

    *  *  *

    Taking no notice of the smooth speechifying of the French, the English built an empire with the collaboration of multinational companies in the service of which it placed its army. They divided the world into two parts, which may be summed up as follows – the sovereign was the King of England (and therefore submitted to political tradition over here ) and the Emperor of India (in other words subjected to the private East India Company and unlimited autocrat over there).

    Decolonisation was a corollary of the Cold War. It was forced on the States of Western Europe by the duopoly of the USA and the USSR. This held during the time of the unipolar world, but now meets no obstacles since the US withdrawal from the « Greater Middle East ».

    It is difficult to anticipate what form this future colonisation will take. Long ago, it was made possible by the huge differences in the level of education. But today ?

  • "Bolsonaro Is Hitler!" Exclaims Venezuela's Maduro In Escalating Spat With Brazil

    When in doubt, desperately reach for the Reductio ad Hitlerum argument. Venezuela’s self-styled socialist “liberator” President Nicolas Maduro has dubbed Brazil’s newly elected right-wing leader Jair Bolsonaro “a Hitler of the modern era.”

    Speaking in front of members of Venezuela’s Constituent Assembly on Monday, Maduro decried that Brazil was “in the hands of a fascist.” And in a sign he’s perhaps been watching too much vapid American media punditry (though CNN is currently expanding in South America) which knows little beyond the tired argumentum ad Nazium in expressing outrage toward political enemies, he said: “Bolsonaro is a modern-day Hitler. He is. What he doesn’t have is courage and his own decisions because he’s the puppet of a sect.”

    The “puppet of a sect” remark is a reference to the fact that Bolsonaro has a huge base of support from the country’s conservative Evangelical Christians, often branded by leftists as “fascist” for their adherence to traditional values like marriage between a man and a woman. 

    The two leaders have been trading barbs for months, with President Bolsonaro among an increasing chorus of regional and world leaders declaring Maduro’s inauguration last week as “illegitimate” while simultaneously voicing strong support to the opposition. Maduro, for his part has consistently condemned his Brazilian counterpart, dubbed by local media as the “tropical Trump”, as a “fascist”.

    Meanwhile, some international reports have gone so far as to speculate that with both men fully in power and trading verbal blows in the neighboring South American countries, open conflict could develop to the point of leading to military confrontation. The heated rhetoric took on new geopolitical importance when the Brazilian president said he’s open to the idea of his country hosting an American base in the near future“Depending on what happens in the world, who knows if we would not need to discuss that question [hosting a US military base] in the future,” Bolsonaro said early this month. He further called the controversial Brazilian embassy move to Jerusalem a “done deal”.

    via the AFP

    The new Brazilian government has made clear it stands by Bolsonaro’s desire to see Maduro ousted from power, with Brazil’s now foreign minister Ernesto Araújo publicly stating in December that “all of the world’s countries must stop supporting him and come together to liberate Venezuela.”

    A Washington Post op-ed this week summarized the results of Maduro’s first term after he was just sworn in for a second last Thursday, describing “an implosion unprecedented in modern Latin American history: Though his country was not at war, its economy shrank by 50 percent.” 

    The editorial described further, “What was once the region’s richest society was swept by epidemics of malnutrition, preventable diseases and violent crime. Three million people fled the country.” 

    And yet the Post finds, “Maduro, having orchestrated a fraudulent reelection, presses on with what the regime describes as a socialist revolution, with tutoring from Cuba and predatory loans from Russia and China.”

  • From Baghdad To Finland And All Across The World: What's The US Up To?

    Via Off-Guardian.org,

    Why does the US Embassy in Helsinki need a big warehouse near Malmi Airport and what are the contents of thousands of kilograms of cargo sent to Helsinki from Baghdad?

    A dilapidated warehouse in Malmi is being used by the US Embassy for unknown operations after a Wikileaks release revealed its location.

    The anonymous looking building on Takoraudantie is notable only for the new 427 meter perimeter fence that according to the Wikileaks’ database was ordered by the US Embassy in April 2018.

    More than a million kilograms of cargo were shipped from Baghdad to different parts of the world, reveals US embassies procurement documents.

    Mysterious cargo shipments from the US Embassy in Baghdad to other American embassies and consulates around the world have been revealed on a Wikileaks’ database. Procurement orders of US embassies are public documents, but Wikileaks put them in a searchable database making it easier to analyse.

    Here are two critical articles on this subject from Helsinki Times, dated December 29, 2018 and January 1, 2019 respectively.

    GUARDED WAREHOUSES NEAR AIRPORT AND MYSTERIOUS CARGO FROM BAGHDAD

    by Will Sillitoe

    Situated across the street from the main entrance of Malmi Airport, the warehouse with its 3 meter high security fence appears an unlikely location for official embassy business. Neighbouring companies include a car yard and a tyre warehouse.

    Helsinki Times visited the perimeters this weekend. Security personnel, young Finns in uniforms with American flags on their arms, appeared nervous and suspicious when asked to comment on the warehouse and refused to even confirm the order of the new fence structure which now surrounds the compound. At one point a security guard appeared in a second floor window to carefully monitor this reporter’s movements along Takoraudantie.

    US embassy warehouse near Malmi airport. This image from Google street view is from 2011. The newly built permitter fence can not be seen in this image.

    Mysterious parcels from Baghdad

    The Wikileaks’ database has also revealed mysterious packages being sent to the US Embassy in Finland from their embassy in Baghdad.

    The database displaying US embassy procurements around the world shows that tons of cargo are being distributed to Helsinki and other US embassies via regular airfreight cargo deliveries from Baghdad.

    Twelve consignments, each logged at 5000 kilograms are recorded as sent to Helsinki and 23 other West European US embassies – an average of 2500 kilograms per US embassy.

    The reason for such a vast volume of embassy deliveries from Baghdad is as yet unknown but this latest disclosure follows Wikileaks news that the US Consulate in Frankfurt was a purchase and postal centre for distributing spy equipment to other US embassies worldwide. Concerns are now raised that the US Embassy in Baghdad is also being used as a main distribution centre for secret operations.

    In addition to Finland and Western Europe, the Wikileaks database shows that the US embassy in Baghdad disseminates hundreds of tons worldwide, with more than 300,000 kilograms recorded as being delivered Stateside alone.

    Incoming diplomatic mail between embassies receives customs clearance and is automatically classified as a US government shipment.

    The 80 page order list also details massive movements of road and air freight between Basra in the south of Iraq and Erbil in the north. No indication of the cargo contents are provided but the order sheets reveal convoys of trucks and vehicles were hired by Baghdad’s US embassy for the mysterious shipments.

    The warehouse is equipped with several big gates suitable for lorries to drive in. Containers and a forklift in the yard indicate heavy duty use. A special antenna is on the roof.

    Spy gadgets and surveillance operations

    The disclosure of the building’s use by the US Embassy in Finland comes in light of revelations about US embassy spying activities worldwide, as featured in the Wikileaks’ US embassy shopping list database. In a published list of more than 16000 miscellaneous items, requests also appear for recording devices disguised as pens, lighters, glasses, watches and even spy shirt buttons.

    Although US embassy procurements are public information, Wikileaks new database allows for country specific searches, giving clearer evidence of US embassy involvement in secret surveillance operations in certain parts of the world.. The timing of this latest Wikileaks’ release came just hours after its Twitter accounts were cyber attacked late on Friday, ahead of the Christmas holiday.

    According to the database, requests made by the US Embassy in Finland appear to be for everyday items. Procurements include a tractor as well as services for snow removal, plumbing, gardening and cleaning. However, in light of ‘Tactical Spy Equipment’ purchased by US embassies elsewhere the existence of the warehouse compound near Malmi Airport raises concerns about potential secret operations closer to home. US Embassy official responsible for ordering the warehouse perimeter fence, was unavailable for comment.

    Strategically located US embassy complex in Helsinki and the newly built “Innovation Center”.

    Worldwide, the Wikileaks’ online data reveals that Latin America is the main target for purchases of spying equipment. Camera hats and USB drives as well as night visors and binoculars were among items procured for the US embassy in Colombia. But topping the list for requested surveillance items was the US embassy in El Salvador where the purchase of ‘Tactical Spy Equipment’ totalled 94 items.

    Back in 2017 Wikileaks documents revealed that the American consulate in Frankfurt had served as a covert base to carry out digital spy operations. Using the US Embassy shopping list database, Germany’s Der Spiegel has now identified the consulate as a main buyer of spy equipment for diplomatic missions across Europe.

    These latest Wikileaks’ revelations further highlight the role of US embassies in espionage activities across the globe. Some reports suggest over 80 US embassies worldwide conceal joint NSA-CIA “Special Collection Service” radio and electronic surveillance equipment. Such concerns add to the questions concerning activities at the Malmi warehouse and the secrecy surrounding it.

    However, the database of US embassy shopping lists reveals some less concerning items too with one evoking the craziness of an Inspector Clouseau rather than a cold, calculating 007: A person to count fish and clean the pond was sought by the consulate in Guayaquil, Ecuador after officials lost track of how many fish they possessed.

    The searchable Wikileaks database and info about Finland related activities can be found HERE.

    *  *  *

    WHAT DOES THE US EMBASSY IN BAGHDAD EXPORT TO FINLAND AND DOZENS OF OTHER COUNTRIES?

    by Will Sillitoe

    The database displaying worldwide US embassy orders of goods and services reveals Baghdad as a postal and shipping centre for tonnes of freight.

    Though military freight might be expected between the US and Iraq, records show that embassies across Europe, Asia, the Middle East, the Americas and Africa are all receiving deliveries from Baghdad too.

    According to Wikileaks’ database, orders to ship more than 540 tonnes of cargo to the US were made in May 2018. The same document shows other main delivery destinations included 120 tonnes of freight to Europe, and 24 tonnes to South Africa, South America and Central Africa respectively. In comparison, only two and a half tonnes of freight were moved within Iraq between Baghdad, Basra and Erbil International Airports. So, the export of items from Iraq appears to be the primary activity.

    The content of the deliveries is as yet unclear, though the order contract suggests household items, rugs, electrical goods, linen, kitchenware, furniture, pianos, refrigerators, books, chinaware, clothing as well as mail could be among the items dispatched. According to the website movers.com, an average one bedroom apartment of furniture weighs approximately one tonne but the practicality of moving many types of household objects across continents is doubtful. It also remains unclear whether the quantity of tonnage relates to many small deliveries or a small number of very large ones.

    The lack of disclosed orders moving cargo and services into Iraq highlights that the movement of diplomats and their families into such a dangerous region on a large scale is unlikely.  Transfers of military personnel back and forth would normally go through the US airbases in Iraq and not via the Embassy administration. So discounting the movement of more than a thousand staff members out of Iraq to countries around the world means that the content and purpose of the shipments remains a mystery.

    The Wikileaks’ database findings coincide with the discovery of a previously undisclosed US Embassy warehouse near Malmi Airport, a storage facility suitable for receiving large truckloads of incoming freight. Documents also show that the US Embassy in Finland ordered a new security perimeter fence for the warehouse compound in April 2018. The purpose for the warehouse remains unknown.

    This latest uncovering of unusual US embassy activity follows the 2017 exposure of the US Consulate in Frankfurt being used for surveillance operations and as a buying and postal dispatch centre of spying equipment for other US consulates. These latest Wikileaks revelations raise concerns that the US Embassy in Baghdad may also serve as a hub for secret operations worldwide.

    The database also reveals that items listed as ‘Tactical Spy Equipment’ were ordered for US embassies in Latin America, with Colombia and El Salvador receiving a range of spy cameras disguised as pens, glasses, hats, USB drives and even shirt buttons.

    *  *  *

    So , as Eric Zuesse asked, why is America’s Baghdad Embassy the world’s largest embassy – and the largest by far?

    “It’s as if the US Embassy is there not only to protect American interests, but to manage the entire world from the heart of the capital, Baghdad.”

    — Iraqi Sheikh Qassim Al Ta’ee, as quoted on 27 December 2011 in Al Iraq News and translated by Ibrahim Zaidan from the original Arabic by Nicholas Dagher 

    Secret government tends to be costly for taxpayers, and also tends to add a lot to the governmental debt. An unauditable governmental department, such as the Defense Department is, cannot function, at all, without an enormous amount of corruption. This is the reality about America’s military. However, there’s much propaganda contradicting it. The news-media also serve those same billionaires.

    How likely, then, is it, that America’s Baghdad Embassy serves the US public? It certainly does not serve the Iraqi public. But it does serve the people — whomever they are — who control the US Government. And that’s the Deep State. That’s the reality, but what’s promoted is fantasyland. And this fantasyland, which is promoted, is called “American democracy”. Just ask Big Brother, and he’ll tell you all about it. He always does.

  • Watch YouTube Star's Million-Dollar McLaren Explode And Melt Down

    YouTube star Alejandro Salmondrin was devastated after his 789 horsepower McLaren Sienna caught fire after just 11 days of ownership and 400 miles under its belt. 

    A former Hollywood filmmaker turned supercar blogger and entrepreneur, Salmondrin has a giant social media footprint with over 1.5 million YouTube subscribers and over a million on Instagram. 

    While driving with his wife one night in October, Salmondrin noted flames coming out from underneath his Sienna which he says he paid $1 million dollars for (a “market adjustment” on top of a MSRP of $837,000). He dropped the car into neutral, pulled over, tried to put the fire out with a bottle of water, and then whipped out his camera to film it melting to the ground. 

    Watch: 

    The aftermath: 

    Here’s the McLaren’s last drive before the fire: 

    Salmondrin made a blog post about the incident: 

    I’ve gotten a lot of questions from you and to me the most notable ones are:

    1 – HAS MCLAREN REACHED OUT TO YOU?

    Yes, I messaged a few of the principals at first, because I was interested in getting another car and to make them aware of the problem but NOT A SINGLE question has been made about the incident.

    This worries me a lot, because I’m not sure what the process is like in a situation like this. But I would assume you want to learn more about the cause of the accident to perhaps stop other cars from having the same problem and putting lives at risk. I could be totally wrong and this is ‘standard procedure’.

    2 – Will insurance or warranty cover you?

    I’m the first registered owner of the car, but I did pay the market adjustment on top of the actual price of the car. However, I insured the car for the value of what I paid for.

    In most cases when an incident like this one occurs, insurance will try to pay you MARKET VALUE AT THE TIME OF THE INCIDENT, but since I bought the car 11 days before it burned to the ground it’s safe to say THAT’S MARKET VALUE.

    3 – WHY RELEASE THE VIDEO NOW

    Insurance is taking their time to go look at the car, and I hope this puts pressure on them. And I hope McLaren looks into this even closer, because I have a few messages like the screenshot I’ve attached at the bottom of the comment section where it indicates another Senna has burned too In Europe.

    The only ‘McLaren official’ (if you can call it that) Is the owner of McLaren Scottsdale (@mclaren_scottsdale). The only reason why I bring it up is because he went out of his own way to tell everyone he thinks I’m committing some sort of Insurance Fraud (as per the screenshots attached at the bottom of the comment section). Now this could either be:

    A – perhaps that is indeed what McLaren thinks and that’s why they haven’t inspected or done anything with the car for that reason…

    Or B – He’s just one of those peanut butter and jelly guys.

    I hope it’s not B, because then he would be: clueless about business or insurance in general, because what do I get out of buying a car for a million dollars and then the car burns down 11 days later and I just get my money back? Hahaha! And additionally, he owns several dealerships 🙁

    Either way. That’s what happened and where I stand with this. I only wanna ask you guys for one favor. Please do not harass Mclaren or the dealer. All I want is for them to take action to avoid more incidents like this. Oh.. and get my insurance money back.

  • Truth, Treason, & The National-Security State

    Authored by Jacob Hornberger via The Future of Freedom Foundation,

    Inadvertently released federal documents reveal that U.S. officials have apparently secured a secret indictment against Julian Assange, the head of WikiLeaks who released secret information about the internal workings of the U.S. national-security establishment. In any nation whose government is founded on the concept of a national-security state, that is a cardinal sin, one akin to treason and meriting severe punishment.

    Mind you, Assange isn’t being charged with lying or releasing false or fraudulent information about the U.S. national-security state. Everyone concedes that the WikiLeaks information was authentic. His “crime” was in disclosing to people the wrongdoing of the national-security establishment. No one is supposed to do that, even if the information is true and correct.

    It’s the same with Edward Snowden, the American contractor with the CIA and the NSA who is now relegated to living in Russia. If Snowden returns home, he faces federal criminal prosecution, conviction, and incarceration for disclosing secrets of the U.S. national-security establishment. Again, his “crime” is disclosing the truth about the internal workings of the national-security establishment, not disseminating false information.

    Such secrecy and the severe punishment for people who disclose the secrets to the public were among the things that came with the conversion of the federal government to a national-security state.

    Recall that when the U.S. government was called into existence by the Constitution, it was a type of governmental structure known as a limited-government republic. Under that type of governmental structure, the federal government’s powers were extremely limited. The only powers that federal officials could lawfully exercise were those few that were enumerated in the Constitution itself.

    Under the republic form of government, there was no enormous permanent military establishment, no CIA,  and no NSA, which are the three components of America’s national-security state.  That last thing Americans wanted was that type of government. In fact, if Americans had been told that the Constitution was going to bring into existence a national-security state, they never would have approved the deal and would have continued operating under the Articles of Confederation, a type of governmental system where the federal government’s powers were so few that it didn’t even have the power to tax.

    Under the republic, governmental operations were transparent. There was no such thing as “state secrets” or “national security.” Except for the periodic backroom deals in which politicians would make deals, things generally were open and above-board for people to see and make judgments on.

    That all changed when the federal government was converted from a limited-government republic to a national-security state after World War II. Suddenly, the federal government was vested with omnipotent powers, so long as they were being exercised by the Pentagon, the CIA, or the NSA in the name of “national security.”

    Interestingly enough, the conversion of the federal government to a national-security state was not done through constitutional amendment. Nonetheless, the federal judiciary has long upheld or simply deferred to the exercise of omnipotent powers by the national-security establishment.

    An implicit part of the conversion was that the Pentagon, the CIA, and the NSA would be free to exercise their omnipotent powers in secret. Secrecy has always been a core element in any government that is structured as a national-security state, especially when it involves dark, immoral, and nefarious powers that are being exercised for the sake of “national security.”

    One action that oftentimes requires the utmost in secrecy involves assassination, which is really nothing more than legalized murder. Not surprisingly, many national-security officials want to keep their role in state-sponsored murder secret. Another example is coups initiated in foreign countries. U.S. officials bend over backwards to hide their role in such regime-change operations. And then there are the surveillance schemes whereby citizens are foreigners are spied up and monitored. Kidnapping, indefinite detention, and torture are still more examples.

    Of course, these are the types of things that we ordinarily identify with totalitarian regimes. The reason for that is that a national-security state governmental system is inherent to totalitarian regimes. For example, the Nazi government, which was a national-security state too, had an enormous permanent military establishment and a Gestapo, which wielded the powers of assassination, indefinite detention, torture, and secret surveillance. And not surprisingly, to disclose the secrets of German’s national-security state involved severe punishment.

    But it’s not just Nazi Germany. There are many other examples of totalitarian regimes that are based on the concept of national security and structured as a national-security state. Chile under Pinochet. The Soviet Union. Communist China. North Korea. Vietnam. Egypt. Pakistan. Iraq. Afghanistan. Saudi Arabia. Turkey, Myanmar. And the United States. The list goes on and on.

    And every one of those totalitarian regimes has a state-secrets doctrine, the same doctrine that the Pentagon, CIA, and NSA have.

    A newspaper in Vietnam, which of course is ruled by a communist regime, reported that a Vietnamese citizen named Phan Van Anh Vu was sentenced to 9 years in prison for “deliberately disclosing state secrets.”

    A website for the Committee to Protect Journalists reported that the Chinese communist regime charged a Chinese journalist named Yang Xiuqiong with “illegally providing state secrets overseas.” The Chinese Reds have also charged a prominent environmental activist named Liu Shu with “revealing state secrets related to China’s counterespionage work.”

    The military dictatorship in Myanmar convicted two Reuters reporters for violating the country’s law that prohibits the gathering of secret documents to help an enemy.

    RT reports that the Russian military will “launch obligatory courses on the protection of state secrets starting next year.

    US News reports that the regime in Turkey is seeking the extradition from Germany of Turkish journalist Can Dunbar, who was convicted of revealing state secrets.

    Defenders of Assange and Snowden and other revealers of secrets of the U.S. national security state point to the principles of freedom of speech and freedom of the press to justify their disclosures.

    I’ve got a better idea: Let’s just dismantle America’s decades-long, nightmarish Cold War-era experiment with the totalitarian structure known as a national-security state and restore a limited-government republic to our land.

  • China's Undergound "Great Wall" Missile Defense System Can Block Hypersonic Attacks

    China has created a vast underground defense complex capable of intercepting hypersonic missiles which can defeat conventional missile defenses, according to a scientist who has worked on the system and received China’s highest science and technology award last week. 

    Speaking with The Global Times, Qian Qihu, 82, said that China’s “Underground Steel Great Wall” could “guarantee the security of the country’s strategic arsenal” against attacks – including those from hypersonic weapons. 

    The “Underground Steel Great Wall” is a series of defense facilities located deep under mountains. While the mountain rock is thick enough to resist enemy attacks, entrances and exits of these facilities are often vulnerable and Qian’s work was to provide extra protection for these parts. –The Global Times

    According to Qian, the system is China’s “last national defense line,” and is capable of withstanding a nuclear attack before the country responds with strategic weapons, which Qian’s work safeguarded along with launch and storage facilities and key military personnel. 

    “The development of the shield must closely follow the development of spears. Our defense engineering has evolved in a timely manner as attack weapons pose new challenges,” said Qian. 

    According to the academician, hypersonic weapons that move 10 times as fast as the speed of sound are capable of changing trajectory mid-flight and penetrate any anti-missile installations.

    US media outlet CNBC reported that in March 2018 during a State of the Nation address, Russian President Vladimir Putin debuted new nuclear and hypersonic weapons, which he described as “invincible.” 

    The US is also trying to develop hypersonic weapons, as then US Deputy Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan, now acting secretary of defense, said in October. “We are going to fly sooner and more often than people have ever expected,” CNBC reported. –The Global Times

    China has gone to great lengths to keep up with advanced weaponry as well as a largely unpredictable international environment, says Qian, citing the Trump administration’s consideration of a lower bar for the deployment of nuclear weapons, including low-yield nukes, as reported in January 2018 by the Wall Street Journal

    Military experts have suggested that US weapons which use low-yield nuclear warheads would be bunker-busters, with a higher surgical strike capability than conventional ground-penetrating munitions. 

    US is playing catch-up

    As we reported in December, the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) warned that the current ballistic missile defense system in the US is powerless against hypersonic missiles from China and Russia.

    The missile’s speed, altitude, and maneuverability could defeat all networked sensors (including space-based) and ground- and sea-based radars; ground- and sea-based interceptor missiles; and render the Pentagon’s command, control, battle management ineffective in a hypersonic missile attack.

    “China and Russia are pursuing hypersonic weapons because their speed, altitude and maneuverability may defeat most missile defense systems, and they may be used to improve long-range conventional and nuclear strike capabilities,” the report said.

    The report admits: “There are no existing countermeasures.

    That doesn’t mean the US government is sitting on its hands. In November we reported on DARPA’s “Glide Breaker” project, which looks to knock hypersonic gliders out of the sky using a “hard-kill interceptor.” 

    So far, there are few other publicly available details about the program. In its budget request for the 2019 Fiscal Year, DARPA did not ask for any money for Glide Breaker specifically or for research and development of hypersonic defense systems broadly.

    It’s also not clear how Glide Breaker may be related to the Missile Defense Agency’s (MDA) own hypersonic defense project, which you can read about in more detail here and also includes plans for some sort of anti-hypersonic missile weapon system. As of February 2018, MDA expected to spend more than $700 million in total on that research and development project through at least 2023 –TheDrive

    On the offensive side of things, a joint program by the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency (DARPA)/ US Army Operational Fires (OpFires) has picked a total of three defense companies to develop and demonstrate a novel ground-launched system enabling hypersonic boost-glide weapons to penetrate the world’s most advanced air defenses and quickly and accurately engage critical time-sensitive enemy targets.

    Aerojet Rocketdyne, Exquadrum, and Sierra Nevada Corporation have each received contracts to immediately start work on design and development for the next generation of propulsion systems that will power America’s hypersonic weapons, DARPA announced in November.

    DARPA/OpFires program manager US Army major Amber Walker said: “OpFires represents a critical capability development in support of the Army’s investments in long-range precision fires.”

    “These awards are the first step in the process to deliver this capability in support of US overmatch,” Walker added.

    The system calls for a mobile ground-based launch system, plus propulsion systems that will launch hypersonic missiles at land-based targets.

    In October, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Moscow would deploy their new Avangard hypersonic glider warheads in the “coming months,” which was followed by December reports that the system had been tested and would be ready to deploy this year

    In other words, the US defense industry better hurry up.

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  • Student Debt Crisis Worsens: Florida Board Of Health Suspends Licenses Over Defaults

    Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

    The Florida Board of Health has suspended thousands of healthcare licenses over defaults on student loans many used to earn their licenses. But many are concerned that the new crackdown may only worsen the student loan crisis.

    The revocation of licenses came after the student loan industry lobbied the government to enact punishments for those who can’t or won’t repay the money they borrowed.According to ABC Action News, only Florida is enforcing this law as of right now. The state also has the power to garnish up to 100% of a worker’s wages until the loan is repaid and the license is reinstated. Under Florida law, once the state suspends a license for student loan default, the only way to get it back is to pay a fine equal to 10 percent of the balance, plus other costs.

    Investigative Reporter Adam Walser uncovered the state’s Board of Health suspended more than 900 health care licenses – including professional certifications for registered nurses, Certified Nursing Assistants, pharmacists, and opticians – in the just the past two years alone.

    The I-Team found 12 other states (Alaska, Arkansas, California, Georgia, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Texas) still have the power to take away health care licenses for unpaid student loans, but officials in those states told ABC Action News they have not suspended any licenses over loan defaults in the past two years. –ABC Action News

    Tampa student loan attorney Christie Arkovich says Florida’s law goes too far.

    “We’re not saying that people shouldn’t repay their loan,” said Arkovich.

    “We’re just saying that getting them fired probably isn’t the best way to go about that.”

    And anyone with a basic understanding of economics could comprehend this.  If they aren’t paying their loans while they have an income, what makes anyone think they’ll start paying the loans once they have no income?

    “You take their license, you take their way of working, how are you going to get your lump sum?” said registered nurse Andrea Chandler.

    “How are you going to get your payment? You’re already not getting your payment.”

    Dr. Gabriel Picone, an economics professor at the University of South Florida, said the decision to suspend licenses for nonpayment of student loans puts a strain on both employers and patients. Health care workers are already in short supply and those who lose their licenses will likely go from earning paychecks to depending on taxpayer-funded welfare.

    “It’s trying to take too much away,” Picone said.

    “This person may end up on Medicaid, receive food stamps. All this is more money that we will have to pay.”

    The United States Department of Education estimates more than 10 percent of student loan borrowers are in default. The federal government estimates Americans owe $1.2 trillion in student debt. That figure is now larger than all outstanding U.S. credit card and vehicle debt combined.

    Florida law requires 45-days written notice before the state can suspend any licenses because of a default on student loan debt. Experts say if you get one of these notices,you should immediately contact your lender to try to negotiate a repayment plan.

  • Yuan Extends Slide After Massive PBOC Liquidity Injection

    Having risen almost non-stop since the start of the year – despite dismal economic data, a still-tightening Fed, and an increasingly ‘easing’ PBOC – the last two days have seen offshore yuan start to fade.

    Following stimulus headlines overnight (“but not a flood of liquidity” according to the PBOC), US Sen. Grassley admitted today that Sino-US trade talks had made “little progress” – both of which sent yuan notably lower.

    This drop was interrupted by cable’s surprise surge (squeeze) after the Brexit vote (stronger pound, weaker dollar, stronger yuan), but yuan has reverted back down again to the lows after the PBOC injected a near-record amount of liquidity into the financial system.

    China’s central bank injected a near-record amount of liquidity via open-market operations amid tax payments and the looming ‘annual’ year-end liquidity crisis.

    The PBOC injects net 350b yuan into the banking system using 7-day reverse repo contracts – the largest one-day addition of 7-day money on record, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

    And the aggregate net 560 billion yuan liquidity injection is nearly the largest ever…

    The move is aimed at “keeping reasonable and sufficient liquidity in banking system as liquidity falls relatively fast during peak season for tax payments,” according to a statement from the PBOC.

    With the Lunar New Year falling on Feb 5th this year (two weeks earlier than last year), we suspect liquidity provisions will be a daily occurrence from here (the last 3 days have seen 340 billion yuan for a 28-day term injected – to cross the new year liquidity threshold).

    Do not mistake this for ‘stimulus’ as it will be withdrawn or rolled and merely plugs a hole – that we suspect will grow larger as trade data suggested capital outflows are re-accelerating.

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Today’s News 15th January 2019

  • Mozambique Mute Over $2 Billion "Tuna Boat" Bribery Scandal

    Mozambique’s ruling party has kept radiosilence since officials in the United States indicted the nation’s former finance minister and former Credit Suisse bankers in a $2 billion hidden loan and bribery scandal. Since Manuel Chang was detained and sought for US extradition, the Frelimo party under President Filipe Nyusi has “closed ranks”, according to a new FT article.

    In an US indictment released this month, Chang was accused of approving a scheme for Mozambique government officials to siphon at least $200 million from a series of loans by shell companies, including one tuna fishing company.

    It seems unlikely that Mozambique will try to clawback any of the money from the scandal, as countries like Malaysia and Angola have done with similar scandals. Adriano Nuvunga, head of ADS, a Mozambican civil society group stated: “I don’t see him cleaning the system like the Malaysians or the Angolans, but rather a survival strategy. Here we are discussing the survival of Frelimo as a political party and as a government. You have to take that into account.”

    Manuel Chang/FT

    The Frelimo party has been in power in Mozambique since 1975 and sees the scandal as crucial to its survival, while the names of those who are to be investigated over the loans include some “powerbrokers” that could “overshadow” the President himself. The list includes “a former central bank governor, intelligence chiefs and civil servants who served under Armando Guebuza, president when the hidden debts were issued”.

    Criminal charges are not being sought and Mozambique is opposing the extradition of Chang, arguing that trying him at home may be a better option.

    The corruption scandal started when Mozambique discovered gas in 2009. About two years later, one of the world’s largest ship builders, Privinvest, pitched government officials on a project to secure the country’s shores. It included things like coastal radar, patrol vessels and tuna boats. Mozambique has one of the continent’s longest coastlines.

    Tuna boats in Mozambique/FT

    As for the bribery, it appears to have been caught on tape, clear as day: the US indictment indictment quotes a government official telling Jean Boustani of Privinvest:

    “There will be other players whose interest will have to be looked after eg ministry of defence, ministry of interior, air force, etc . . . In democratic countries like ours people come and go, and everyone will want to have his/her share of the deal while in office, because once out of the office it will be difficult.”

    Boustani then arranged brides worth $50 million for officials, according to the indictment. Boustani apparently didn’t do a great job of concealing the bribes, either: they were referred to in code as “$50 million chickens”. This sum was only part of the bribes that were eventually laundered with the help of Credit Suisse bankers, according to the indictment.

    Further, the $200 million total is also probably an understatement. Independent analysis performed by Kroll in 2017 was unable to account for $500 million of loans. Meanwhile, tuna boats have sat idle in the country‘s capital while at the same time Privinvest has denied overpaying. Boustani also denies wrongdoing.

    The speculation in Mozambique is that Nyusi, at the time a defense minister, must have known of the looting taking place.

    The IMF, a major funder of some of the hidden loans, cut ties with the country when the full extent of the country’s debt – and corruption – was uncovered in 2016. That set off a financial crisis and the debts went into default. As of now, the government has made some progress on a restructuring program, helped along by players like Exxon and Anadarko, who are targeting -what else – gas development in the country, and so we begin one again from square one.

  • "Financial Nuclear Warheads" – The Yellow Vests Get It Right

    Authored by Robert Gore via Straight Line Logic blog,

    The mainstream media has degenerated irreparably. Here’s a reliable rule of thumb: if it’s important it’s not covered; if it’s covered it’s not important. Stories in the American mainstream press about Yellow Vest protests have been few. One aspect of the protests, transcendently important, has received scant coverage.

    The Yellow Vest protestors have called for a coordinated run on French banks. Whether they realize it or not, they’re playing with nuclear warheads that could annihilate not just the French, but Europe’s and the entire world’s financial system. Because inextricably linked to the ends of contemporary governments―how much they can screw up the lives of those who must live under them—is the question of means―how do they fund their misrule? The short answer is taxes and debt.

    Since 1971, when President Nixon 
“temporarily” suspended international convertibility of dollars for gold (it’s never been reinstated), the monetary basis of the global economy has been fiat debt. Neither government or central bank debt nor currencies are tethered to any real constraint, like precious metals (see “Real Money,” SLL). Thus, politicians and monetary officials can create as much debt as they want: debt by fiat.

    Government and central bank debt is at the apex of the global debt pyramid. The next tier is commercial banks that have accounts at central banks. Those accounts are bank assets and central bank liabilities, or debts. Central banks expand their fiat liabilities to banks in exchange for banks’ fiat government debt, an exchange called debt monetization, which is a bit of a misnomer since no “Real Money” is involved. The “monetization” is the central bank’s fiat expansion of banks’ accounts with the central bank in exchange for fiat government debt, which expands banks’ assets available for loans to governments, businesses, and individuals.

    In “Real Money,” money was defined, in part, as that which has intrinsic value and is not a liability of an individual or entity. This part of the definition is controversial; it invalidates everything we currently think of as money. Popularly accepted definitions are essentially: money is as money does, anything that serves as a medium of exchange, a store of value, and a unit of account (the other parts of the SLL definition) is money.

    However, just because something has monetary functions doesn’t mean it’s money, anymore than using a hairbrush to brush your teeth makes it a toothbrush. While there are some metaphysical questions about the notion of intrinsic value (that term was chosen because it’s shorter and more convenient than saying, “Something to which most people would assign a value apart from its potential value as money,” every time) the important point is that by SLL’s definition, using debt as money, including the debt in your wallet known as Federal Reserve Notes, doesn’t make it money.

    Except for the relatively few instances when gold, silver, or other tangible value is used as a medium of exchange in private transactions, everything that is currently used is debt, including currencies. When individuals and businesses make deposits in a bank, they are exchanging one form of debt, usually currency or endorsed checks, for another—the bank’s promise, under a specified set of conditions, to return either currency or a check drawn on the bank.

    The depositor is a creditor and the bank is free to loan out the funds deposited. This is the basis of fractional reserve banking, the banking system’s ability to create debt in multiples of amounts deposited. For every $10 deposited, a bank will loan out perhaps $9 and keep $1 in reserve to meet withdrawal requests. The fraction that can be lent out and the fraction that must be kept in reserve are generally specified by government or central bank regulations.

    The amount lent out usually finds its way back to the banking system, where it serves as the basis for further lending. For analytical simplicity, introductory economics classes say that within the banking system, any autonomous increase in bank deposits will expand the total loans by the reciprocal of the reserve requirement. If the reserve requirement is 5 percent of bank deposits, an increase in bank deposits will lead to a 20 times expansion of bank loans. Real life is not quite that simple, but it’s a decent approximation.

    An important implication is that within the banking system, most of the deposits have been lent out, they’re not in the system. Thus, if all depositors want to exercise their claims against the system at the same time, it cannot meet those requests. The same is true for individual banks.

    How does a run on an individual bank turn into a loose yarn that once pulled, unravels the whole sweater? The bank tries to increase its liquid funds, drawing on whatever lines of emergency credit it may have, and to convert it’s illiquid assets into liquid assets, calling in loans. This pressures other banks and financial institutions, who draw on their lines of credit and call their loans and so on until the system collapses.

    Central banks are supposed to prevent runs from becoming systemic crises by providing an emergency backstop of fiat debt secured by banks‘ “high quality” but illiquid collateral. A further backstop is deposit insurance, a New Deal innovation that is now common across developed countries. In the US, the deposit insurance fund would cover only a small percentage of deposits in the event of a system-wide run.

    The more indebted the system, the more vulnerable it is to such crises. We saw that in the 2008-2009, when problems in one segment of one credit market―US subprime mortgage lending―led to a global financial crisis that was only stanched by massive injections of government and central bank fiat debt. Since that crisis, government, central bank, corporate, and individual debts have all increased, leaving the global financial system and economy more vulnerable now than it was then.

    The stated nominal global debt is around $250 trillion, or over three times world GDP. Add in unfunded pension and medical care promises by governments and corporations and a huge pile of derivatives, the amount of which can only be guessed (ranging from $250 to $750 trillion), and total claims on present assets and future production are probably well in excess of $1 quadrillion, a thousand trillions, over twelve times world GDP. Fiat debt has enabled to world to become more indebted than it has ever been, with the temporary increase in “wealth” that comes with any borrowing binge, but with the inevitable bankruptcy pending.

    Bankruptcy is a when, not an if. One question is whether it starts in a random corner of the world’s financial system, or at the behest of its putative victims. Which gets us back to the Yellow Vests’ attempted bank run. In the present overly indebted age, any financial crisis worth its salt will result in bank runs, with depositors losing most or all of their deposits. Debt is the Achilles heel of the world’s governments. A widespread run on financial institutions will dramatically reduce credit availability and raise interest rates, and it will shut off credit entirely for some of them. Under those circumstances, tax revenues will shrink as well.

    As argued in “Revolution in America,” (SLL) anyone truly interested in upending those systems should try, like the Yellow Vests, to initiate the mass withdrawal of funds from the tottering financial system. It’s effective, nonviolent, currently legal, gets those funds out before they’re frozen and then confiscated by rapacious governments, and initiates the inevitable crisis to the advantage of those who initiate it. For more particulars and supporting arguments see “Revolution.”

    As noted in that article, the probability of mass recognition of the inevitable and coordinated action against it is small. Instead, we’ll have the crisis. Governments will freeze accounts and then confiscate what’s left in them. With central banks they’ll drive the value of their own fiat debts to zero. We’ll see further moves towards global governance and centralization of economic activity and finance, supposedly to address the crises created by past and present governance and centralization. Anyone advocating for individual rights and against government will be demonized, ostracized, and probably criminalized. Fiat electronic debt will replace paper fiat notes to lock the increasingly worthless fiat medium of exchange within the insolvent financial system. “Legitimate” economic activity will grind to a halt and black markets will flourish. The private ownership of precious metals and perhaps barter will be outlawed. There will be insufficient real resources for governments to pay and equip their praetorians, who will reject fiat scrip. Unprotected, the vestiges of the old order will crumble. Battle-hardened survivors will emerge and begin building decentralized enclaves. Those will have to rest on a more enduring set of principles if they are to survive.

    …On present course the government will go bankrupt. The one option for those of us who have provided so much of its ill-gotten and ill-spent loot—and received so little in return—is to seize the initiative, strike at its weakest point, extract a small percentage of what has been taken, hasten the inevitable crash, and then rebuild America into the great nation it once was…

    the only defense against what is surely to come is a strong offense, before our capacity to launch an offensive is stolen from us.

    Revolution in America, SLL.

    The Yellow Vests are to be commended for seizing the initiative and launching the offensive.

  • Mass Fentanyl Overdose In California Kills 1 Person, Leaves 12 More Hospitalized 

    One person is dead and a dozen others hospitalized after a mass fentanyl overdose in Chico, California, over the weekend.

    The overdose was reported to law enforcement at 9:12 am Saturday morning, CBS/CW+-affiliate KHSL-TV (Action News Now) reported.

    Chico Fire Department Division Chief Jesse Alexander told Action News Now on Facebook Live that it was the most significant mass casualty incident he had ever seen.

    Alexander described the horrifying scene with as many as six people undergoing CPR at the same time.

    Four of those rushed to the hospital are still in critical condition. Police called the 13 people “friends and acquaintances,” but did provide further details on who owned the home. The victims were mostly millennials, aged 19 to about 30.

    Police did not provide any details of the deceased individual but said he was an adult male who overdosed and died inside the home.

    Two officers who arrived at the scene first were taken to the hospital after reporting symptoms of possible fentanyl exposure. They were treated and released from the hospital, police said.

    Chico Police Chief Mike O’Brien gave an update to reporters about the mass causality incident on Saturday afternoon.

    O’Brien said the overdoses were caused by ingestion of some fentanyl analog and another substance that has not yet been identified.

    “As tragic as this event is, and certainly there is potential for additional fatalities — I want to emphasize that — it certainly would have been far worse without the response and dispensing of Naloxone by Chico police officers, the life-saving efforts of Chico firefighters and Butte EMS and the emergency care of course received by Enloe Hospital staff,” O’Brien told reporters.

    The site of the overdose was in a residential home about 2 hours north of Sacramento.

    The opioid epidemic has violently spread across the country in the last several years.

    A new report published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said there were 70,237 drug overdose deaths in 2017. Opioids were involved in 67.8%, or 47,600 of those deaths. Of those opioid-related overdose deaths, 59.8% of them, or 28,466, were due to synthetic opioids.

    “We were waiting and have been waiting, unfortunately, for this to happen in the sense that we knew fentanyl had been moving west and in other parts of the country they’re really seeing the greatest impact of this drug,” O’Brien said. “That is changing, unfortunately, and now we’ve had this mass casualty incident. … That should concern us all.”

    As we have warned before, “the third wave of the opioid epidemic is here,” which is driven by new opioid synthetics that are 10,000 times as potent as morphine and used to tranquilize elephants are attributing to the latest surge in deaths. Expect more mass casualty events, like the one in California, as the opioid crisis continues to accelerate.

  • Entering A Major Regional Reset: The Syria Outcome Will Haunt Those Who Started This War

    Authored by Alastair Crooked via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    The Middle East is metamorphosing. New fault-lines are emerging, yet Trump’s foreign policy ‘hawks’ still try to stage ‘old movies’ in a new ‘theatre’.

    The ‘old movie’ is for the US to ‘stand up’ Sunni, Arab states, and lead them towards confronting ‘bad actor’ Iran. ‘Team Bolton’ is reverting back to the old 1996 Clean Break script – as if nothing has changed. State Department officials have been briefing that Secretary Pompeo’s address in Cairo on Thursday was “slated to tell his audience (although he may not name the former president), that Obama misled the people of the Middle East about the true source of terrorism, including what contributed to the rise of the Islamic State. Pompeo will insist that Iran, a country Obama tried to engage, is the real terrorist culprit. The speech’s drafts also have Pompeo suggesting that Iran could learn from the Saudis about human rights, and the rule of law.”

    Well, at least that speech should raise a chuckle around the region. In practice however, the regional fault-line has moved on: It is no longer so much Iran. GCC States have a new agenda, and are now far more concerned to contain Turkey, and to put a halt to Turkish influence spreading throughout the Levant. GCC states fear that President Erdogan, given the emotional and psychological wave of antipathy unleashed by the Khashoggi murder, may be mobilising newly re-energised Muslim Brotherhood, Gulf networks. The aim being to leverage present Gulf economic woes, and the general hollowing out of any broader GCC ‘vision’, in order to undercut the rigid Gulf ‘Arab system’ (tribal monarchy). The Brotherhood favours a soft Islamist reform of the Gulf monarchies – along lines, such as that once advocated by Jamal Khashoggi .

    Turkey’s leadership in any case is convinced that it was the UAE (MbZ specifically) that was the author behind the Kurdish buffer being constructed, and mini-state ‘plot’ against Turkey – in conjunction with Israel and the US. Understandably, Gulf states now fear possible Turkish retribution for their weaponising of Kurdish aspirations in this way.

    And Turkey is seen (by GCC States) as already working in close co-ordination with fellow Muslim Brotherhood patron and GCC member, Qatar, to divide the collapsing Council. This prefigures a new round to the MB versus Saudi Wahhabism spat for the soul of Sunni Islam.

    GGC states therefore, are hoping to stand-up a ‘front’ to balance Turkey in the Levant. And to this end, they are trying to recruit President Assad back into the Arab fold (which is to say, into the Arab League), and to have him act, jointly with them, as an Arab counter to Turkey. 

    The point here is obvious: President Assad is closely allied to Iran – and so is Moscow and Turkey. To be fashionably Iranophobic – as Pompeo might wish the GCC to be – simply would spoil the GCC’s anti-Turkey ‘play’. Syria indeed may be (justly) skeptical of Turkey’s actions and intent in Syria, but from President Assad’s perspective, Iran and Russia are absolutely crucial to the managing of an erratic Turkey. Turkey does represent an existential Syrian concern. And trying to lever President Assad – or Lebanon or Turkey – away from Iran, would be absurd. It won’t happen. And the GCC states have enough nous to understand this now (after their stinging defeat in Syria). The Gulf anti-Iranian stance has had ‘the burner’ turned sharply down, (except when their need is to stroke US feathers). 

    They can see clearly that the Master of Ceremonies in the Levant – putting together the new regional ‘order’ – is not Mr Bolton, but Moscow, with Tehran (and occasionally Ankara), playing their equal part ‘from behind the curtain’.

    Presumably, America’s intelligence services know, (and Gulf states certainly are aware), that in any case, Iranian forces are almost all gone from Syria (though of course Syria’s ‘Iranian connection’ remains as firm, as ever) – even as Pompeo and Israel say the precisely the opposite: that they are pushing-back hard at the ‘threatening’ Iranian military ‘footprint’ in Syria. Few in the region will believe it.

    The second notable emerging regional fault line then, evidently is the one that is opening between Turkey and the US and Israel. Turkey ‘gets it’: Erdogan ‘gets it’ very clearly: that Washington now deeply distrusts him, suspects that Turkey is accelerating into Moscow and Beijing’s orbit, and that DC would be happy to see him gone – and a more NATO-friendly leader installed in his stead. 

    And it must be clear to Washington too ‘why’ Turkey would be heading ‘East’. Erdogan precisely needs Russia and Iran to act as MCs to moderate his difficult relations with Damascus for the future. Erdogan needs Russia and Iran even more, to broker a suitable political solution to the Kurds in Syria. He needs China too, to support his economy. 

    And Erdogan is fully aware that Israel (more than Gulf States) still hankers after the old Ben Gurion ideal of an ethnic Kurdish state – allied with Israel, and sitting atop major oil resources – to be inserted at the very pivot to south-west and central Asia: And at Turkey’s vulnerable underbelly.

    The Israeli’s articulated their support for a Kurdish state quite plainly at the time of Barzani’s failed independence initiative in Iraq. But Erdogan simply, unmistakably, has said to this ‘never’ (to Bolton, this week). Nonetheless, Ankara still needs Russian and Iranian collaboration to allow Bolton to ‘climb down his tree’ of a Kurdish mini-state in Syria. He needs Russia to broker a Syrian-led buffer, vice an American-Kurdish tourniquet, strapped around his southern border.

    It is unlikely however, that despite the real threat that America’s arming of the Kurds poses to Turkey, that Erdogan really wants to invade Syria – though he threatens it – and though John Bolton’s ‘conditions’ may end by leaving Turkey no option, but to do it. Since, for sure, Erdogan understands that a messy Turkish invasion of Syria would send the delicately balanced Turkish Lire into free-fall.

    Still … Turkey, Syria, Iran and Russia now all want America gone from Syria. And for a moment, it seemed it might proceed smoothly after Trump had acquiesced to Erdogan’s arguments, during their celebrated telephone call. But then – Senator Lindsay Graham demurred (against the backdrop of massed howls of anguish issuing from the Beltway foreign policy think-tanks). Bolton did the walk-back, by making US withdrawal from Syria contingent on conditions (ones seemingly designed not to be met) and not tied any specific timeline. President Erdogan was not amused.

    It should be obvious now that we are entering a major regional re-set: The US is leaving Syria. Bolton’s attempted withdrawal-reversal has been rebuffed. And the US, in any event, forfeited the confidence of the Kurds in consequence to the original Trump statement. The Kurds now are orientated toward Damascus and Russia is mediating a settlement. 

    It may take a while, but the US is going. Kurdish forces (other than those linked with the PKK) are likely to be assimilated into the Syrian army, and the ‘buffer’ will not be directed against Turkey, but will be a mix of Syrian army and Kurdish elements – under Syrian command – but whose overall conduct towards Turkey will be invigilated by Russia. And the Syrian army will, in due time, clear Idlib from a resurgent al-Qaida (HTS).

    The Arab states are returning to their embassies in Damascus – partly out of fear that the whipsaw of American policy, its radical polarisation, and its proclivity to be wholly or partially ‘walked-back’ by the Deep State – might leave the Gulf unexpectedly ‘orphaned’ at any time. In effect, the GCC states are ‘hedging’ against this risk by trying to reconnect a bifurcated Arab sphere, and to give it a new ‘purpose’ and credibility – as a balance against Turkey, Qatar and the Muslim Brotherhood (Syria’s old nemesis).

    And yet – there remains still another layer to this calculus, as described by veteran Middle East journalist, Elijah Magnier:

    “Indeed the Levant is returning to the centre of Middle East and world attention in a stronger position than in 2011. Syria has advanced precision missiles that can hit any building in Israel. Assad also has an air defence system he would have never dreamed of before 2011 – thanks to Israel’s continuous violation of its airspace, and its defiance of Russian authority. Hezbollah has constructed bases for its long and medium range precision missiles in the mountains and has created a bond with Syria that it could never have established – if not for the war. Iran has established a strategic brotherhood with Syria, thanks to its role in defeating the regime change plan.

    NATO’s support for the growth of ISIS has created a bond between Syria and Iraq that no Muslim or Baathist link could ever have created: Iraq has a “carte blanche” to bomb ISIS locations in Syria without the consent of the Syrian leadership, and the Iraqi security forces can walk into Syria anytime they see fit to fight ISIS. The anti-Israel axis has never been stronger than it is today. That is the result of 2011-2018 war imposed on Syria”.

    Yes. This is the third of the newly emergent fault-lines: that of Israel on the one hand, and the emerging reality in the Syrian north, on the other – a shadow that has returned to haunt the original instigators of the ‘war’ to undermine Syria. PM Netanyahu since has put all the Israeli eggs into the Trump family ‘basket’. It was Netanyahu’s relationship with Trump which was presented in Israel as being the true ‘Deal of the Century’ (and not the Palestinian one). Yet when Bibi complained forcefully about US withdrawal from Syria (leaving Syria vulnerable, Netanyahu asserts, to an Iranian insertion of smart missiles), Trump nonchalantly replied that the US gives Israel $ 4.5 billion per year – “You’ll be all right”, Trump riposted. 

    It was seen in Israel as an extraordinary slap to the PM’s face. But Israelis cannot avoid, but to acknowledge, some responsibility for creating precisely the circumstances of which they now loudly complain.

    Bottom line: Things have not gone according to plan: America is not shaping the new Levantine ‘order’ – Moscow is. And Israel’s continual, blatant disregard of Russia’s own interests in the Levant, firstly infuriated, and finally has provoked the Russian high command into declaring the northern Middle East a putative no-fly zone for Israel. This represents a major strategic reversal for Netanyahu (and the US).

    And finally, it is this repeating pattern of statements being made by the US President on foreign policy that are then almost casually contradicted, or ‘conditioned’, by some or other part of the US bureaucracy, that poses to the region (and beyond) the sixty-four-thousand-dollar question. The pattern clearly is one of an isolated President, with officials emptying his statements of executive authority (until subsequently endorsed, or denied, by the US bureaucracy). It is making Trump almost irrelevant (in terms of the setting of foreign policy). 

    Is this then a stealth process – knowingly contrived – incrementally to remove Trump from power? A hollowing out of his Presidential prerogatives (leaving him only as a disruptive Twitterer) – achieved, without all the disruption and mess, of formally removing him from office? We shall see.

    And what next? Well, as Simon Henderson observes, no one is sure – everyone is left wondering:

    “What’s up with Secretary Pompeo’s extended tour of the Middle East? The short answer is that he is trying to sell/explain President Trump’s “we are leaving Syria” policy to America’s friends … Amman, Jordan; Cairo, Egypt; Manama, Bahrain; Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates (UAE); Doha, Qatar; Riyadh, Saudi Arabia; Muscat, Oman; Kuwait City, Kuwait. Wow, even with his own jet and no immigration hassles, that’s an exhausting itinerary … The fact that there now are eight stops in eight days, probably reflects the amount of explaining that needs to be done.

  • Check Out Jerry Jones’ New, $250 Million Luxury Mega Yacht

    Jerry Jones, the Dallas Cowboys’ billionaire owner, purchased a 109m/357ft superyacht, named after his wife, called the Bravo Eugenia, sources confirmed to NBC 5 Sports Director Newy Scruggs.

    The $250 million vessel, built last year by Netherlands-based Oceanco, can sleep 14 people and is managed by a crew of about two dozen, according to SuperYacht Times.

    Operating under the American flag, the vessel has a single-tier engine room is designed to cruise through the water with less resistance.  “Coupled with her hybrid propulsion system,” explained Lateral Managing Director, James Roy, “Bravo delivers exceptional performance and is configured to offer multiple operational modes, each matched to the variable operating profile of a yacht designed to adventure autonomously across the world’s oceans.”

    The vessel has two helicopter landing pads (one on the bow and another on the stern), a large tender garage underneath the foredeck, a fitness center with sauna, steam rooms, hot tubs, and a pool. The ship’s design is of Nuvolari Lenard while Burgess operated as the owner’s representatives during the construction build.

    Reymond Langton Design, a design studio specializing in superyachts builds, designed the interior which has elegant style with light woods and lacquered surfaces.”We worked very closely with the owner to find the perfect artisans and craftsmen in creating bespoke artworks, fabrics and signature furniture pieces that reflect the owner’s style and essence and combine to create a warm, inviting environment for all on board, “ said says Pascale Reymond, a partner at Reymond Langton Design.

    Jones, 76, has a net worth of about $7 billion, according to Forbes. The Cowboys are considered one of the most valuable sports franchise in the world at $4.8 billion. Jones purchased the team in 1989 for $150 million, a 46x on the initial investment.

  • Escobar: All Under Heaven, China's Challenge To The Westphalian System

    Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Asia Times,

    Beijing is tweaking the rules of the Western order to reflect its revitalized geopolitical and economic power, but some Americans see this as a threat to their way of life…

    Embedded in the now dominant US narrative of “Chinese aggression”, Sinophobes claim that China is not only a threat to the American way of life, but also an existential threat to the American republic.

    It’s worth noting, of course, that the American way of life has long ceased to be a model to be emulated all across the Global South and that the US walks and talks increasingly like an oligarchy.

    Underneath it all is a huge divide, in outlook and cultural beliefs, between the two great powers, as some leaders and writers have attempted to explain.

    President Xi Jinping’s speech last week does make it clear that Beijing is engaged in tweaking the rules of the current Westphalian system to truly reflect its reconquered geopolitical and economic power.

    Yet it’s hardly a matter of “overthrowing” the system established by the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648. As much as trade blocks are ruling the new geoeconomic game, nation-states are bound to remain the backbone of the international system.

    One of Beijing’s key foreign policies is no interference in other nations’ internal affairs. In parallel, the historical record since the end of WWII shows that the US has never refrained from interfering in other nations’ internal affairs.

    What Beijing is really aiming at is what Professor Xiang Lanxin, director of the Centre of One Belt and One Road Studies at the China National Institute for SCO International Exchange and Judicial Cooperation, referred to at a crucial intervention during the June 2016 Shangri-la Dialogue in Singapore.

    Lanxin defined the New Silk Roads, or Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as being an avenue to a ‘post-Westphalian world’, in a sense of a true 21st century geoeconomic integration of Eurasia acted out by Asian nations. That’s the key reason why Washington, which set the current international rules in 1945, fears BRI and now demonizes it 24/7.

    Understanding Tianxia

    The notion that imperial China, over the centuries, obtained a Mandate of Heaven over Tianxia, or “All under Heaven”, and that Tianxia is a “dictatorial system” is absolute nonsense. Once again that reflects the profound ignorance by professional Sinophobes about the deepest strands of classical Chinese culture.

    They could do worse than learn about Tianxia from someone like Zhao Tingyang, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and author of an essential book first published by China CITIC Press in 2016, then translated into French last year under the title Tianxia: Tous sous un meme ciel.

    Tingyang teaches us that the Tianxia system of the Zhou dynasty (1046-256 BC) is essentially a theory – a concept born in Ancient China but not specific to China that goes way beyond the country to tackle universal problems in a “process of dynamic formation that refers to globalization.”

    This introduces us to a fascinating conceptual bridge linking ancient China to 21st-century globalization, arguing that political concepts defined by nation-states, imperialisms and rivalries for hegemony are losing meaning when faced with globalization. The future is symbolized by the new power of all-inclusive global networks – which is at the center of the BRI concept.

    Tingyang shows that the Tianxia concept refers to a world system where the true political subject is the world. Under the Western imperialist vision, the world was always an object of conquest, domination and exploitation, and never a political subject per se.

    So we need a higher and more comprehensive unifying vision than that of the nation-state – under a Lao Tzu framework: “To see the world from the point of view of the world”.

    You are not my enemy

    Plunging into the deepest roots of Chinese culture, Tingyang shows the idea that there’s nothing beyond Tianxia is, in fact, a metaphysical principle, because Tian (heaven) exists globally. So, Tianxia (all under Heaven), as Confucius said, must be the same, in order to be in accordance with heaven.

    Thus the Tianxia system is inclusive and not exclusive; it suppresses the idea of enemy and foreigner; no country or culture would be designated as an enemy, and be non-incorporable to the system.

    Tingyang’s sharpest deconstruction of the Western system is when he shows how the theory of progress, as we know it, clings to the narrative logic of Christianity; then “that becomes a modern superstition. The mélange is neither scientific or theological – it’s an ideological superstition.”

    From the point of view of Chinese intellectual and cultural traditions, Tingyang shows that since Christianity won over pagan Greek civilization, the West has been driven by a logic of combat. The world appears as a bellicose entity, with groups or tribes opposing one another. The (Western) “mission of conquering the world destroyed the a priori integrity of the concept of ‘world’. The world lost its sacred character to become a battlefield devoted to the universal accomplishment of Christianity. The word became an object.”

    So we came to a point where a hegemonic system of knowledge, via its mode of diffusion and monopoly of the rules of language, propagates a “monotheist narrative on everything, societies, history, life, values”.

    This system “interrupted knowledge and the historical thread of other cultures.” It dissolved other spiritual worlds into debris without meaning, so they would lose their integrity and sacredness. It debased “the historicity of all other histories in the name of faith in progressivism (a secular version of monotheism).” And it divided the world into center and periphery; an “evolved” world which has a history contraposed to a stagnated world deprived of history.

    This hardly differs from other major strands of criticism of Western colonialism to be found all across the Global South.

    Yin and yang

    Tingyang finally reverts to a Lao Tzu formula. “According to the Way of Heaven, excess is diminished and insufficiencies compensated”. And that ties in with Yin and Yang, as referred to in the Book of Mutations of Zhou; “Yin and Yang is a functional metaphor of equilibrium, meaning that the vitality of every existence resides in dynamic equilibrium.”

    What irks the Sinophobes is that Tianxia, as explained by Tingyang and adopted by the current Beijing leadership, striving towards a real “dynamic equilibrium” in international relations, poses a serious challenge to American leadership in both hard power and soft power.

    It’s under this framework that Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s crucial, wide-ranging commentary on Xi Jinping’s diplomatic strategy must be interpreted. Wang stressed how Xi “has made innovations on and transcended the traditional Western theories of international relations for the past 300 years.”

    The Chinese challenge is unprecedented – and no wonder Washington, in tandem with other Western elites, is stunned. In the end, it’s a matter of positioning Tianxia as a superior promoter of “dynamic equilibrium” in international relations in comparison with the Westphalian system.

    As a result, immense political and cultural repercussions may be lost in translation, and China needs some serious soft power to get its point across.

    Yet instead of producing reductionist diatribes, this process should galvanize a serious global debate in the years to come.

  • An Unexpected Development Could Crush The Leveraged Loan Market

    When it comes to the loan market, two things are undisputed.

    The first is that ever since a US court vacated long-standing Dodd-Frank risk-retention rules last April, which forced managers to hold part of the securities they sell to investors, a flood of new loan issuance was unleashed to meet unprecedented CLO demand for leveraged loans. The result was a record year for CLO issuance…

    … even when accounting for the December freeze when loan market entered hibernation as prices fell and CLO activity ground to a halt.

    As such, marginal CLO demand is understandably perceived by the market as a critical spoke for all future primary market demand, and is therefore a critical component of the overall loan market.

    The second undisputed aspect of the loan and CLO market, is that Japanese banks have become some of the most aggressive  buyers of CLOs, with UBS and the Bank of England estimating that these bank have been buying between 50-75% of AAA-rated CLO tranches and a third of the total market.

    Japanese banks have been buying the top-rated AAA pieces of CLOs because they have higher yields than like-rated sovereign debt, according to UBS, with the lenders making up about 33% of total inflows into the asset class in the past several years.  Additionally, as noted above, Japanese banks may be buying between half and three-quarters of AAA rated CLO tranches, UBS said, citing evidence from clients and analysis of the market for cross currency basis swaps. Without the Japanese bid for AAA rated CLO paper, top-rated CLO spreads would likely widen back to at least 2014 levels, or 50 basis points wider, the bank estimated.

    “The Japanese bid for U.S. loans will not be easily broken,” analysts led by Stephen Caprio wrote in research published last December and first noted by Bloomberg. “Most Japanese banks are buy-and-hold investors; outright selling will be fairly limited unless the prospect of outright credit losses becomes likely, necessitating much higher recession risk than today.”

    Furthermore, despite recent record outflows, Japanese banks should in theory continue to anchor the market as long as government yields stay low and the Bank of Japan clings to its ultra-easy monetary policies, UBS said quoted by Bloomberg.

    And while Japanese demand is vulnerable to a pullback, it should help provide stability to the market in the face of a recent sell-off, UBS said. Unless of course, an unexpected regulatory intervention emerges making it far more cumbersome and complicated for Japanese banks to invest in US CLOs.

    And yet, that’s precisely what may soon happen because as Bloomberg reported, citing law firms, a proposal is being floated by a Japanese regulator which could bait some U.S. CLO managers to readopt risk retention.

    Specifically, the proposal floated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency (JFSA) would allow certain types of Japanese investors to buy only securitizations where the originator retains a 5% piece, according to a client note sent by legal practices Anderson Mori & Tomotsune and Milbank Tweed. The Japanese Financial Services Agency (JFSA) recently proposed the risk retention rule, which appears to be a carbon copy of the Frank-Dodd rule that was scrapped last year in the US, and which had held back demand from local buyers of CLOs.

    Investors governed by the rule would include banks such as Norinchukin Bank, credit unions, and credit cooperatives, among other entities. If investors don’t adhere to new rule, they would be subject to a much higher capital charge, with a maximum weighting of up to 1,250%, the law firms said.

    Commenting on potential impact of this proposal, should it be implemented, the law firms said that “any regulatory change that impacts investment in CLOs could have a dramatic effect on the market,” and added that “the imposition of the Japanese Retention Requirement may therefore see a return to retention-compliant U.S. CLO structures to the extent that such transactions are to be marketed in Japan.”

    That said, this arguably huge development for one of the biggest sources of demand in the CLO, and thus loan market, is still one “potentially big news” because as Bloomberg’s Sebastian Boyd notes, we don’t know whether this is going to happen or whether it will include an exemption for “open market” CLOs. Only “open-market” CLOs, those in which loans are bought on the open market, are free from risk retention. The April ruling didn’t apply to private credit funds that set up CLOs.

    Commenting on the “open market” CLO exemption, the law firms notes that this “has been raised as a possibility and is under consideration by the JFSA.” In February 2018, a U.S. appeals court decided that risk retention rules don’t apply to U.S. “open market” CLOs, and by April U.S. CLO managers were officially released from risk-retention rules.

    Still, in a world where volatility has risen sharply recently, and where macroprudential policies are encouraging regulators to become far more critical of bank balance sheets especially after the worst year for global capital market since the financial crisis, it is a distinct possibility that Japan’s regulator will implement such a buffer. After all, European CLOs are already structured to include risk retention and disclosure obligations which are more far-reaching than the Japanese proposal, so European CLOs should generally meet the Japanese retention requirement.

    While it is impossible to handicap the odds of a regulatory intervention, if law firms have already been engaged to lobby against the passage of this proposal, they are certainly non-trivial. Yet one thing is certain: should the proposal be enacted, and Japanese buying collapse due to risk-retention demands, then up to a third of demand for CLOs could be eliminated overnight. In that case watch out below as loan yields soars, price tumble, and the leverage loan market is rocked to its core with the potential aftershocks stretching first to junk, then to investment grade, and ultimately the entire credit space.

    Certainly, it would be ironic if in their attempt to make the overall loan market safer, Japanese regulators end up triggering the avalanche that finally bursts the credit market bubble, potentially concluding in the next financial crisis.

  • Here's What An American Economic Collapse Could Look Like

    Authored by Daisy Luther via The Organic Prepper blog,

    When we think of “economic collapse” our imaginations usually lead us immediately to the desperation we’ve witnessed in places like Venezuela or Greece. We think of starvation, a complete lack of medical care, and waves of suicide by people who simply can’t survive. We imagine an apocalyptic societal breakdown that is immediately visible.

    Here in America, I suspect the collapse is going to look a lot different than it has in these other countries… at least, at first. And in my description, it’s entirely likely you’ll see that many of these signs have been happening all around us for years.

    It will be gradual.

    The thing with collapses that we see in the media is that we are seeing the end results of events that have been slowly declining for years. Venezuela was one of the wealthiest countries in the world back until the mid-1980s, due to their rich oil reserves. Then oil prices collapsed and their fall began. It was actually several decades though before it was truly evident that the country was in trouble.

    Preparedness bloggers here have been sounding the warning bell since 2008 (at least) when our economy went into a recession. While the US managed to dig its way out of that to at least an illusion of renewed prosperity, it’s questionable how much of that return was real and how much of it was propaganda.

    It’s unlikely that we’ll see just one event that says clearly to everyone, “Hey, our economy has collapsed. The Great Depression 2.0 has arrived, today, January 14, 2019, due to X event.”

    Instead, we’ll continue to see signs like a lack of full-time jobs with benefits, growing student and consumer debt, more people who can’t afford rent and food, and more stores closing their doors forever in an ongoing retail apocalypse.

    Because of the ready availability of credit cards and loans, things don’t seem that bad. People are still shopping for frivolous things. They’re still spending billions on Christmas. They’re still eating out at restaurants.

    But just because that “money” is being spent does not mean that people are okay financially.

    It will seem like it’s just individual families having a hard time.

    The way things are going down in America, it doesn’t seem like we’re facing a national crisis. Consumers are consuming. People are working – just look at those “jobs” numbers. Folks are still having barbecues with the neighbors, hosting extravagant holiday get-togethers, and avidly following the football season.

    But the American dream isn’t actually that dreamy. Because beneath all the trappings of our pleasant lives, people are right on the verge of a crisis.

    40% of Americans could not handle an unexpected expense of only $400 without having to sell something they own. 78% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck. That means that only one missed paycheck will be a financial disaster for the majority of Americans.

    And when that missed paycheck or unexpected expense comes, people will completely blame themselves. They’ll silently feel like failures and not realize that the entire system is crumbling all around them. They will believe it is only their family, due to their own bad decisions, that is suffering.

    Sure, we could all make better choices from time to time. We could skip those vacations or spend less on the kids at Christmas or go on the beans-and-rice-and-apples diet. We could eschew credit cards, live beneath our means, and go full-Spartan with our lifestyles.

    Sometimes the money problems are out of our hands.

    But even with the very best personal economic decisions, a lot of things are out of our hands. What if a family member becomes seriously ill, with heaven forbid, a heart attack or cancer? Even with health insurance (which a growing number of middle-class families, mine included, cannot afford), the out of pocket costs will be astronomical. And that’s not even factoring in the long-term loss of the sick person’s income. Total financial disaster and it’s not something that can be avoided.

    Or what if your vehicle is totaled by an uninsured driver? Even when your own insurance covers what you’ve paid off on your vehicle, what if you just break even and then can’t afford another vehicle? Then you can’t get to work…then you can’t pay your bills…then, again, a disaster not of your own making has struck.

    Any time you see a family suffering financially, you must understand that very few of us are immune to money problems. We all handle these financial catastrophes differently and we all use the skills and talents we have to deal with them. Some of us are more fortunate than others – we’re able to pick up second and third jobs. We’re able to slash our expenses more relentlessly. Maybe we live in areas that are ripe with employment opportunities, instead of economically depressed small towns. We may not have poor health or sick children who require 24-hour care and supervision.

    Heck – once you add in children at all, you’re paying for daycare every time you go to work. I know that when my kids were little and I was a single mom, I had to take a second job just to cover my daycare costs, which, in the summer, were as much as my rent. I worked seven days a week for years and lost so much time with my children that it broke my heart.

    It’s really easy to look down on others who are having a hard time with money but always remember that just one crisis could put each of us in that place. We’re living in a system that is designed to put us in that place.

    The divide will get bigger.

    In the United States, we’re watching a disappearing act that unfortunately is no illusion. We’re watching the middle class vanish. Remember when it was common for just about everyone to have trappings like houses, two cars in the driveway, and kids who play baseball in the summer and take gymnastics lessons in the winter? Lifestyles that used to put us firmly right in the middle class are harder and harder to achieve. And it isn’t just that Americans are lazy and addicted to spending money they don’t have.

    The biggest blow I can think of to the middle class was the inappropriately named Affordable Care Act (Obamacare).  While that helped a lot of people who couldn’t afford any healthcare at all, with subsidies and low-to-no deductibles, for the rest of us who had a reasonable plan before, it was financially apocalyptic. There was story after story of families paying thousands of dollars per month for shoddy care that didn’t kick in until $10,000 had been spent out of pocket. This took formerly middle-class families and pushed them into the poverty level. But because their ridiculous monthly insurance payments weren’t write-offs, they couldn’t get subsidized. Talk about irony – the ACA impoverished people and then wouldn’t cover their healthcare.

    When I talk about the divide, I’m not referring to so-called “income inequality.” That will always exist because we all have different skills, and different skills are worth differing amounts of money.

    I’m talking about a divide in lifestyle. I’m talking about how people who work often two and three jobs can barely manage to survive. It’s a real problem when all we do is work and we can’t spend time raising our children to be good and productive members of society.

    Don’t get me wrong – rich folks can spend their money however they want. But at some point, their glaring frivolity is going to paint a Marie-Antoinette-style target on their backs. Regular people who could pay for a year of living comfortably with one of the Birkin bags in their collections of $20,000 purses are getting increasingly ticked off of the way things are going in this country.

    Eventually, things that are normal will become luxuries.

    While things are tough, even some of our poorest citizens still have it better than 2/3 of the world’s population. Most of us have roofs over our heads, heat in the winter, running water, food, and electricity to run our refrigerators.

    But that could change.

    As our economy plummets and our national debt soars, we could see the things that we all take for granted today could become luxuries tomorrow. Imagine if the ordinary trappings that we’ve always had became as out of reach for most of us as a Lamborghini in the driveway.

    What if only rich people could afford electricity? What about heat? What about running water?  What if that divide between the rich and the poor could be delineated by who had the ability to turn on a light at the flick of a switch and who did not?

    Many people worry about an event like a solar flare that would wipe out electrical power, casting us back about 200 years.  We’d have no refrigeration, no transportation, no climate control, and no lights. But in that situation, we’d all be in the same boat. No matter how wealthy you are, any unprotected electrical items would still be useless.

    What if that’s what the economic collapse looks like?

    What if the real threat was simply that no one could afford to pay the electric bill?  What if prices escalated to the point that it was a choice between food and electricity?  What if, home by home, the lights went out across America?

    And what about running water? A few years back, in Jefferson County, Alabama, the price of water quadrupled, making monthly water bills over $300.

    Jefferson County in Alabama is the state’s most populous county and also its poorest. One of the poorest of those poor areas is Birmingham, Jefferson County’s largest city. Here water and sewerage bills have quadrupled in the last 15 years and with combined sewerage and water bills coming in at around $300 a month, this leaves the same amount out of the average social security cheque of $600 a month to cover everything else, food, clothing, and all other utilities. Low paid workers, of which there are many fare no better.

    Many people have opted to buy drums of water from petrol stations rather than pay their ever increasing bills. They use these drums of water for drinking, washing and in their portable toilets which can be seen dotting back yards across the area, the modern version of the outhouse. They pay a fee to a sanitation company to remove the waste. It’s cheaper than letting the city take care of it. (source)

    So imagine if this kind of thing became even more widespread. What if you had to be rich to have electricity and running water?

    This is how it could happen.

    What if it’s just an incremental crumbling of our way of life, one household at a time?

    No bank runs. No government confiscation of resources. No dramatic event that we can all point to and say, “This is how the American economy was destroyed on (pick a date).”

    Instead, it becomes harder and harder to pay your necessary bills. You go deeper and deeper into debt trying to pay for things like medical bills and food. Your job, if you keep it, doesn’t provide increases in pay to match the increases in the costs of living because the person running the business is just trying to survive too.

    Then you re-evaluate what necessities are. You think about what you can work around. Which is more important? Medicine or childcare? Running water or electricity? Rent or food?

    This is the future for which we should be preparing.

    Stop expecting some huge event and look at the decline that’s already happening all around you. Think about your options in a world where only rich people can afford electricity and running water and food all at the same time.

    Maybe the epic disaster everyone has been preparing for is slowing happening right now. It isn’t really that farfetched, is it?

    Maybe the disaster is the crumbling of our First World lifestyle due to unsustainable debt and consumerism. Maybe it’s how they roll out the socialist utopia that control freaks all seem to desire. If everyone is desperate to survive or to regain their former luxuries, how hard would it be to manipulate them into a comfortable control grid?

    If you want to maintain your independence, then self-reliance is survival.

  • Brazil's Bolsonaro Blasts Left's "Marxist Indoctrination… Enslaving Kids To Welfare Dependence"

    Less than two weeks after he was sworn into office, Brazil’s president Jair Bolsonaro is making good on his commitments to dismantle the Marxist indoctrination underpinning Brazil’s culture.

    To explain his perspective on how Brazil’s left has indoctrinated the children in Brazil to enslave society, Bolsonaro took to Twitter…

    By way of background, as The Brazilian Report explained last year, the “Schools without Political Parties” initiative – which imposes several limitations on teachers in the classroom against the perceived “leftist indoctrination” in Brazilian education – is a pillar of Brazil’s Jair Bolsanaro’s agenda and promotes forbidding teachers from mentioning “gender ideology” and stating that they can’t go against the moral and religious convictions of students’ parents.

    Critics say it would bring censorship and intimidation to schools, but Mr. Bolsonaro’s choice of Mr. Ricardo Velez-Rodriguez as Brazil’s Minister of Education – a self-declared “anti-Marxist,” makes it clear that the “re-foundation” of the nation’s education system intends to end a structure which “dismantles traditional values of our society […] of family, religion, and patriotism.”

    In a November 7 blog post, he wrote that Brazilians have become “hostages of an education system that indoctrinates students into scientism and Marxism.”

    In another post, he said Brazil “should resist politically correct globalism, which has adopted the crazy notion of ‘gender education.”

    He continues: “This nonsense must end.”

    Additionally, Damares Alves, an evangelical pastor who has been appointed Brazil’s the new Human Rights Minister, said, according to the Associated Press,

    “Girls will be princesses and boys will be princes…There will be no more ideological indoctrination of children and teenagers in Brazil.”

    And this is what Bolsonaro focused on in his brief speech yesterday…

    Full Transcript:

    What is their [the left’s] objective in doing this [exposing kids to early sexual discussions]?

    Their goal is that your children that study in public schools sorry to say this because when I was young, public schools used to be decent… now only the poor put their kids there because they don’t have any other choicelearn about nothing so that in the future they are entirely dependent on the government for everything.

    Now, I say to you [beneficiaries of social welfare], what’s more important to you? I know social welfare is important to many of you, but is social welfare more important than your kids’ dignity? Your kids’ honor?

    And I’ll say more, The Workers’ Party, through their website (Humaniza Redes), they say clearly that Pedophilia is not a crime, and that the pedophile can only be judged after an export does a “detailed report,” because if the pedophile has some kind of “mental disorder,” according to Rousseff’s website which is linked to the human rights secretary, that had Mrs. Maria de Rosario as its Chief, he’s only considered a pedophile if he doesn’t suffer from any mental disorder… or if the pedophilia was practiced for no commercial purposes.

    This is what they [The Workers’ Party] want for kids since the age of six.

    What are they doing all throughout Brazil?

    Approximately 100,000 public schools are being used for political propaganda for The Workers’ Party.

    Like Professor [Marco Antonio] Villa has been saying: “The Department of Education (MEC) cannot be used as Propaganda for a political party.”

    Besides defending the dignity of our children, we are taking care of our own future… no wonder I’m wearing this short of Japan.

    In Japan, kids of 6/7 years can solve math problems our college students can’t, because here in Brazil, it’s more important to teach a boy that he’s not a boy and a girl that she’s not a girl (like they did in the National High School Exam) than to teach them something that will allow them to free themselves from social welfare, poverty, and misery.

    Is it any wonder the globalists are terrified of this truth-speaking leader?

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