Today’s News 18th May 2018

  • The Average Croatian Doesn't Leave Home Until They're 32!!

    Figures from Eurostat have revealed the average age at which young people leave their parent’s house in Europe.

    Infographic: When Europeans fly the nest | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    As Statista’s Martin Armstrong reports, at the top of the list is Montenegro where the nest is generally flown at the ripe age of 32.5.

    This is also indicative of the trend that young people in the more southern nations tend to stay with their parents for longer, with Croatia, Slovakia and Italy all at the top of the ranking.

    At the bottom, the north of the continent is represented by Finland, Denmark and Sweden.

  • Europe: National Sovereignty Vs. International Conquest, At Stake Over Iran

    Authored by Eric Zuesse via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    Europe now faces its ultimate ideological fork-in-the-road, which it has thus far ignored but can no longer ignore:

    They need to decide whether they seek a world of nations that each is sovereign over its own territory but over no other (and this would not be a world at war);

    or whether they seek instead a world in which they are part of the American empire, a world based on conquests – NATO, IMF, World Bank, and the other US-controlled international institutions – and in which their own nation’s citizens are subject to the dictatorship by America’s aristocracy: the same super-rich individuals who effectively control the US Government itself (see this and this — and that’s dictatorship by the richest, in the United States).

    Iran has become this fateful fork-in-the-road, and the immediate issue here is America’s cancellation of the Iran nuclear deal that America had signed along with 6 other countries, and America’s consequent restoration of economic sanctions against Iran — sanctions against companies anywhere that continue trading with Iran.

    First, however, some essential historical background on that entire issue: 

    The US aristocracy overthrew Iran’s democratically elected Government in 1953 and imposed there a barbaric dictatorship which did the bidding of the US and allied aristocracies, by installing the Pahlavi Shah there, just as they had earlier, in 1932, installed the Saud King in Saudi Arabia — which land never ever had known democracy. As Wikipedia says of Ibn Saud, who became King in 1932, “After World War I, he received further support from the British, including a glut of surplus munitions. He launched his campaign against the Al Rashidi in 1920; by 1922 they had been all but destroyed,” with Britain’s help.

    Similarly, the US and its British Imperial partner installed Pahlavi as Iran’s Shah in 1953. This was done by US President Dwight David Eisenhower. After the death of the anti-imperialistic US President FDR, in 1945, the US Government quickly became pro-imperialistic under President Harry S. Truman (whom imperial England’s Winston Churchill wrapped around his little finger), and then even more so under Eisenhower, so that during the brief presidency of Ike’s successor President JFK, the anti-imperialistic ghost of FDR was coming to haunt the White House and thus again threaten the conjoined US-UK’s aristocracies’ surging global control. Kennedy was quickly souring on, and coming to oppose, imperialism (just as FDR had done) – he was opposing conquest and dominion for its own sake.

    So, he was assassinated and the evidence was covered-up, so that the CIA, which Truman had installed and which Eisenhower placed firmly under the control of America’s aristocratically controlled military-industrial complex, became increasingly America’s own Deep State, designed for global conquest (though using an ‘anti-communist’ excuse and cover for their real and ruling motive of global conquest and dominion). 

    When the US-imposed Shah was overthrown by an authentic revolution in 1979, America’s continued alliance with the UK-US-installed Saud family turned into a US-UK alliance against Iran, which nation has ever since been demonized by the US and UK aristocracies as being a ‘terrorist regime’, even though Saudi Arabia actually dominates global Islamic terrorism, and Iran is opposed to terrorism (except to terrorism that’s aimed against Israel). And everybody who knows anything on sound basis is aware of these established historical facts. But, actually, the US-Saudi alliance is even worse than that: global Islamic terrorism was invented and organized by the US aristocracy in conjunction with the Saud family starting in 1979 when Iran freed itself from the US-UK dictatorship and restored Iranian sovereignty (even though in a highly compromised Shiite theocratic way, nothing at all like the secular Iranian democracy that had been overthrown by the US and UK aristocracies in 1953).

    The US and Sauds created Islamic terrorism in 1979 in order to draw the Soviet Union into Afghanistan and ultimately used these terrorist proxy “boots on the ground” so as to force the Soviets out of Afghanistan — thereby draining the Soviet economy in the hope of ultimately conquering the USSR and then conquering Russia itself, which the US President GHW Bush on the night of 24 February 1990 made clear that the US and its allies must do — he gave the European vassal-nations their marching-order on that date, and they have reliably followed that order, until now.

    Russia, which the US aristocracy craves to conquer, is an ally of Iran (which they hope to re-conquer).

    The basic principle of America’s aristocracy is repudiation of national sovereignty. That’s what the US Government globally stands for today.

    Russian Television headlined on May 11th, “‘Are we America’s vassals?’ France vows to trade with Iran in defiance of US ‘economic policeman’” and reported that US President Donald Trump’s re-imposition of US economic sanctions against any companies that do business with Iran, is being resisted by all the other nations that had signed the Obama-Kerry nuclear accord with Iran, the “JCPOA” treaty: UK, France, China, Russia, US, and EU (which is led by Germany).

    The US regime knows that if even America’s allies — UK, France, and Germany — hold together with Iran, to defy the Imperial actions punishing them for continuing with Iran even after the US pull-out from the treaty, then the Western Alliance will be jeopardized, if not terminated altogether, and finally the Cold War, which GHW Bush had ordered the allies to continue even after the end of the USSR, and of its communism, and of its Warsaw Pact military alliance mirroring America’s NATO alliance, will finally end also on America’s side, just as it had ended in 1991 on the Soviet Union’s side. Such an end to the Cold War would possibly cause America’s military-industrial complex — and the stock values of mega-corporations such as Lockheed Martin — to collapse. 

    Thus, the US aristocracy is afraid of peace replacing their existing permanent-war economy. All those trillions of dollars that have been invested in machines of mass-murder abroad, could plunge in value, if UK, France, and Germany, terminate the Western Alliance, and become individual sovereign nations who join with Iran — another individual sovereign nation — to say no to the Imperial power (the US), and yes to national sovereignty, which sovereignty constitutes the sole foundation-stone upon which any and all democracies are constructed. No democracy can exist in any nation that is a vassal to some other (the imperial power). In a world where national sovereignty is honored, democracy would not necessarily exist everywhere, but it would no longer be internationally prohibited by an imperial power, which inevitably is itself a dictatorship, no real democracy at all.

    On March 3rd, the 175-year-old imperial magazine, The Economist, headlined against China as an enemy in this continuing Cold War, “How the West got China wrong” and explained “the Chinese threat”: 

    “China is not a market economy and, on its present course, never will be. Instead, it increasingly controls business as an arm of state power… Foreign businesses are profitable but miserable, because commerce always seems to be on China’s terms.”

    The imperialistic view is that the international dictator and its corporations should rule — there should be no real sovereign other than this dictatorship, by the US regime now, since America is today’s imperialist nation.

    Perhaps Europe now will make the fateful decision, between international dictatorship on the one side, or else the supreme sovereignty of each and every nation on the other, to determine its own laws — and to require any corporation that does business there to adhere to its legal system and to none other: the supremacy of each nation within its own territory, not of any international corporations, not even of ones that are based in some international-bully country that says it’s “the one indispensable nation” — meaning that every other nation is “dispensable.” Russia won’t accept that. Iran won’t accept that. China won’t accept that. Will Germany accept it — the land of the original: “Deutschland über alles”? Will France? Will UK? 

    Americans accept it. The US public are very effectively controlled by America’s aristocracy. A Yougov poll at the start of 2017 (the start of Trump’s Presidency) asked over 7,000 Americans to rate countries as “enemy”, “unfriendly”, “friendly”, “ally”, or “not sure”; and, among the 144 rated countries, Americans placed at the most hostile end, in order from the very worst, to the 13th-from-worst: North Korea, Iran, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Russia, Libya, Somalia, Pakistan, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Sudan. Other than Saudi Arabia, which the US Government treats as being its master if not as being its very top ally, and which is, in any case, by far the US military’s biggest customer (other than the US Government, of course), that list from Yougov looks very much like, or else close to, what America’s aristocracy would want to see targeted, as being America’s ‘enemies’. So, other than Americans’ including the top ally both of America’s aristocracy and of Israel‘s aristocracy, Saudi Arabia, on that list of enemies, the list was very much what the US aristocracy’s ’news’media had been promoting as being America’s ‘enemies’.

    In fact, even though those ‘news’media haven’t informed Americans that 92% of Saudi Arabians approve of ISIS, or that the Saudi royal family financed and organized the 9/11 attacks (in conjunction with others of George W. Bush’s friends), Americans view Saudi Arabia hostilely. That’s acceptable to America’s aristocracy, because the Saud family’s hatred is focused against Iran, the main Shiite nation, and the US public (have been deceive to) prefer Saudi Arabia over Iran. In fact, a 17 February 2016 Gallup poll showed that Iran was seen by Americans as being even more hostile toward Americans than is Saudi Arabia.

    So, America’s aristocracy have no reason to be concerned that their chief ally and second-from-top governmental customer, the Saud family, are unfavorably viewed by the US public. Both in America and in Saudi Arabia, the aristocracy effectively controls its public. Thus, the American people think in the way that the American aristocracy want them to — supporting any conquest (e.g., Iraq 2003, Libya 2011, Syria 2012-) that the aristocracy want to perpetrate. Of course, the way to achieve this control is by means of the windows through which the public get to see the world around them, which windows on the world are the nation’s ‘news’media.

    On May 12th, Fairness and Accuracy In Reporting (FAIR) reported that the American people are very effectively controlled to believe Iran to be America’s enemy and very dangerous to us. The headline was “Media Debate Best Way to Dominate Iran” and the article documented that the American people are being very intensively propagandized by the aristocratically controlled media, to favor aggression against Iran, and are being heavily lied-to, in order to achieve this.

    So, though the American public will continue to support the American Government (despite distrusting both their government and their ‘news’media), foreign publics aren’t so rigidly under the control of America’s aristocracy; and therefore Europe’s aristocracies could abandon their alliance with the US aristocracy, if they strongly enough want to. Their ‘news’media would obediently do whatever they’re told, and could begin immediately portraying the reality of the US Government, to their people — including, for example, the reality that the US stole Ukraine, and some of the participants have even confessed their rolesRussia did not steal Crimea (and the Crimea-Ukraine issue was the alleged spark for the ‘restoration’ of the Cold War — which The West never actually ended on its side, only Russia did on its side). 

    An end of The Western Alliance (America’s empire) could happen. But it would require — from the EU’s leaders (and/or from Turkey’s Erdogan) — courage, conviction, and a commitment to national sovereignty’s being the foundation-stone to any democracy anywhere, and this change-of-political-theory would be something drastically new in Europe (and-or in Turkey), which is a region that has historically been staunchly supportive of empires, and thus supportive of dictatorships (ones that are compliant — foreign stooge-regimes). It would require a historic sea-change.

  • Special Ops Getting 1000s Of Small Glide Munitions That Pack A Bigger Punch Than Hellfires

    As global counterterrorism operations show no signs of slowing down, U.S. Special Operations Forces (SOF) are receivingthousands of light, gliding missiles that are smaller and more powerful than an AGM-114 Hellfire and fired from a Lockheed C-130 Hercules above the modern battlefield.

    Dynetics Small Glide Munition. (Source: Defense News)

    In recent years, insurgent groups have outsmarted American precision-guided weapons launched from an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) with fast traveling vehicles. However, a new powerful gliding munition can chase down and destroy these fast-moving targets.

    Dynetics Small Glide Munition. (Source: Aviation Week)

    According to the United State Special Operations Command (SOCOM) report about an upcoming contract award, it signed a deal with Alabama-based defense contractor Dynetics for the supply of about 4,000 more of the 59-lb. GBU-69B Small Glide Munitions (SGM) over the next four years.

    The GBU-69B Small Glide Munitions (SGM) can glide for more than 20 miles and slam into a moving target traveling up to 70 mph with its lightweight, 36-lb. warhead, which is more powerful than a Hellfire, but has about half the weight coming in at 59-lb.

    Breaking Defense points out that Dynetics’ secret to weight reduction is in “a lighter tube thanks partly to the fact that the SGM is unpowered, and uses wings that unfold after launch to glide to its target.” The company told Breaking Defense that the weapon was designed to be “modular” so that the SGM could fit on a wide variety of platforms.

    In a justification document breaking down why it was not purchasing more SGMs, SOCOM said it wanted to “expeditiously complete development, integration, test, and fielding an SGM capability for the AC-130W, AC-130J, and other Special Operations Forces (SOF) platforms” because “the combat need is immediate.” The document also discussed how SOCOM had terrible luck with another comparable munition, which “was removed from service on SOCOM aircraft due to failure to achieve lethality performance and high cost to redesign to meet mission requirements.”

    The contract, which could be awarded as early as July, will require Dynetics to provide “700 SGMs in 2018 and 2019, with 900 more in 2020,” said Breaking Defense. The number is expected to increase to 1,000 per year in 2021 and beyond.

    Highlighted in the recent Department of Defense’s National Defense Strategy (2018), counterterrorism operations in the Middle East, Yemen, Eastern Africa and Libya will be abundant well into the 2020s. According to the newest US Army’s Training and Doctrine Command, or TRADOC, these operations will be considered hybrid wars, that are small, fast-paced, and rely on precision-guided munitions to protect Special Operations Forces.

    Dynetics told Breaking Defense that the SGMs laser-guided munition uses lattice control fins at the back of the missile are similar to the GBU 43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast, and the GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator.

    In the past, SOCOM tested several other lightweight munitions, but none seemed to pan out with successful field tests. SOCOM tested Raytheon’s Griffin, Northrop Grumman’s Viper Strike, and Textron’s G-CLAW. Here is what the justification document said:

    • SOCOM “phased the Viper Strike out of the inventory due to failure to achieve lethality performance, and high cost to redesign to meet mission requirements.”

    • Textron’s G-CLAW “is 2-3 years behind the SGM in maturity and experienced failures in its first flight test with a seeker,” and

    • Raytheon’s Griffin “does not address the required aspects of the 360 degree employment zone, launch signature, and support engagement scenarios in which attack azimuth and impact angle must be precisely controlled. At this time, there is no viable alternative to the SGM.”

    Dynetics further told Breaking Defense that the company is experimenting with strapping the SGMs to fighter jets and helicopters, and “nothing that would preclude it from unmanned or light aircraft or gunship derivatives.” Dynetics added that the SGM could be an excellent fit for the Army’s lightweight precision munition program.

    Perhaps, lightweight munitions for SOCOM’s hybrid wars in Africa and the Middle East is another way of saying, the military cannot afford to field overpriced munitions, as its endless wars could undoubtedly bankrupt this nation.

  • An Empire Of Nothing At All – A Staggeringly Well-Funded Blowback Machine

    Authored by Tom Engelhardt via TomDispatch.com,

    [This essay is the introduction to Tom Engelhardt’s new book, A Nation Unmade by War, a Dispatch Book published by Haymarket Books.]

    As I was putting the finishing touches on my new book, the Costs of War Project at Brown University’s Watson Institute published an estimate of the taxpayer dollars that will have gone into America’s war on terror from September 12, 2001, through fiscal year 2018. That figure: a cool $5.6 trillion (including the future costs of caring for our war vets).

    On average, that’s at least $23,386 per taxpayer.

    Keep in mind that such figures, however eye-popping, are only the dollar costs of our wars. They don’t, for instance, include the psychic costs to the Americans mangled in one way or another in those never-ending conflicts. They don’t include the costs to this country’s infrastructure, which has been crumbling while taxpayer dollars flow copiously and in a remarkably — in these years, almost uniquely — bipartisan fashion into what’s still laughably called “national security.” That’s not, of course, what would make most of us more secure, but what would make them — the denizens of the national security state — ever more secure in Washington and elsewhere. We’re talking about the Pentagon, the Department of Homeland Security, the U.S. nuclear complex, and the rest of that state-within-a-state, including its many intelligence agencies and the warrior corporations that have, by now, been fused into that vast and vastly profitable interlocking structure.

    In reality, the costs of America’s wars, still spreading in the Trump era, are incalculable. Just look at photos of the cities of Ramadi or Mosul in Iraq, Raqqa or Aleppo in Syria, Sirte in Libya, or Marawi in the southern Philippines, all in ruins in the wake of the conflicts Washington set off in the post–9/11 years, and try to put a price on them. Those views of mile upon mile of rubble, often without a building still standing untouched, should take anyone’s breath away. Some of those cities may never be fully rebuilt.

    And how could you even begin to put a dollars-and-cents value on the larger human costs of those wars: the hundreds of thousands of dead? The tens of millions of people displaced in their own countries or sent as refugees fleeing across any border in sight? How could you factor in the way those masses of uprooted peoples of the Greater Middle East and Africa are unsettling other parts of the planet? Their presence (or more accurately a growing fear of it) has, for instance, helped fuel an expanding set of right-wing “populist” movements that threaten to tear Europe apart. And who could forget the role that those refugees — or at least fantasy versions of them — played in Donald Trump’s full-throated, successful pitch for the presidency? What, in the end, might be the cost of that?

    Opening the Gates of Hell

    America’s never-ending twenty-first-century conflicts were triggered by the decision of George W. Bush and his top officials to instantly define their response to attacks on the Pentagon and the World Trade Center by a tiny group of jihadis as a “war”; then to proclaim it nothing short of a “Global War on Terror”; and finally to invade and occupy first Afghanistan and then Iraq, with dreams of dominating the Greater Middle East — and ultimately the planet — as no other imperial power had ever done.

    Their overwrought geopolitical fantasies and their sense that the U.S. military was a force capable of accomplishing anything they willed it to do launched a process that would cost this world of ours in ways that no one will ever be able to calculate. Who, for instance, could begin to put a price on the futures of the children whose lives, in the aftermath of those decisions, would be twisted and shrunk in ways frightening even to imagine? Who could tote up what it means for so many millions of this planet’s young to be deprived of homes, parents, educations — of anything, in fact, approximating the sort of stability that might lead to a future worth imagining?

    Though few may remember it, I’ve never forgotten the 2002 warning issued by Amr Moussa, then head of the Arab League. An invasion of Iraq would, he predicted that September, “open the gates of hell.” Two years later, in the wake of the actual invasion and the U.S. occupation of that country, he altered his comment slightly. “The gates of hell,” he said, “are open in Iraq.”

    His assessment has proven unbearably prescient — and one not only applicable to Iraq. Fourteen years after that invasion, we should all now be in some kind of mourning for a world that won’t ever be. It wasn’t just the US military that, in the spring of 2003, passed through those gates to hell. In our own way, we all did. Otherwise, Donald Trump wouldn’t have become president.

    I don’t claim to be an expert on hell. I have no idea exactly what circle of it we’re now in, but I do know one thing: we are there.

    The Infrastructure of a Garrison State

    If I could bring my parents back from the dead right now, I know that this country in its present state would boggle their minds. They wouldn’t recognize it. If I were to tell them, for instance, that just three men — Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, and Warren Buffett — now possess as much wealth as the bottom half of the US population, of 160 million Americans, they would never believe me.

    How, for instance, could I begin to explain to them the ways in which, in these years, money flowed ever upward into the pockets of the immensely wealthy and then down again into what became one-percent elections that would finally ensconce a billionaire and his family in the White House? How would I explain to them that, while leading congressional Democrats and Republicans couldn’t say often enough that this country was uniquely greater than any that ever existed, none of them could find the funds — some $5.6 trillion for starters — necessary for our roads, dams, bridges, tunnels, and other crucial infrastructure? This on a planet where what the news likes to call “extreme weather” is increasingly wreaking havocon that same infrastructure.

    My parents wouldn’t have thought such things possible. Not in America. And somehow I’d have to explain to them that they had returned to a nation which, though few Americans realize it, has increasingly been unmade by war — by the conflicts Washington’s war on terror triggered that have now morphed into the wars of so many and have, in the process, changed us.

    Such conflicts on the global frontiers have a tendency to come home in ways that can be hard to track or pin down. After all, unlike those cities in the Greater Middle East, ours aren’t yet in ruins — though some of them may be heading in that direction, even if in slow motion. This country is, at least theoretically, still near the height of its imperial power, still the wealthiest nation on the planet. And yet it should be clear enough by now that we’ve crippled not just other nations but ourselves in ways that I suspect — though I’ve tried over these years to absorb and record them as best I could — we can still barely see or grasp.

    In my new book, A Nation Unmade by War, the focus is on a country increasingly unsettled and transformed by spreading wars to which most of its citizens were, at best, only half paying attention. Certainly, Trump’s election was a sign of how an American sense of decline had already come home to roost in the era of the rise of the national security state (and little else).

    Though it’s not something normally said here, to my mind President Trump should be considered part of the costs of those wars come home. Without the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq and what followed, I doubt he would have been imaginable as anything but the host of a reality TV show or the owner of a series of failed casinos. Nor would the garrison-state version of Washington he now occupies be conceivable, nor the generals of our disastrous wars whom he’s surrounded himself with, nor the growth of a surveillance state that would have staggered George Orwell.

    The Makings of a Blowback Machine

    It took Donald Trump — give him credit where it’s due — to make us begin to grasp that we were living in a different and devolving world. And none of this would have been imaginable if, in the aftermath of 9/11, George W. Bush, Dick Cheney & Co. hadn’t felt the urge to launch the wars that led us through those gates of hell. Their soaring geopolitical dreams of global domination proved to be nightmares of the first order. They imagined a planet unlike any in the previous half millennium of imperial history, in which a single power would basically dominate everything until the end of time. They imagined, that is, the sort of world that, in Hollywood, had been associated only with the most malign of evil characters.

    And here was the result of their conceptual overreach: never, it could be argued, has a great power still in its imperial prime proven quite so incapable of applying its military and political might in a way that would advance its aims. It’s a strange fact of this century that the U.S. military has been deployed across vast swaths of the planet and somehow, again and again, has found itself overmatched by underwhelming enemy forces and incapable of producing any results other than destruction and further fragmentation. And all of this occurred at the moment when the planet most needed a new kind of knitting together, at the moment when humanity’s future was at stake in ways previously unimaginable, thanks to its still-increasing use of fossil fuels.

    In the end, the last empire may prove to be an empire of nothing at all — a grim possibility which has been a focus of TomDispatch, the website I’ve run since November 2002. Of course, when you write pieces every couple of weeks for years on end, it would be surprising if you didn’t repeat yourself. The real repetitiousness, however, wasn’t at TomDispatch. It was in Washington. The only thing our leaders and generals have seemed capable of doing, starting from the day after the 9/11 attacks, is more or less the same thing with the same dismal results, again and again.

    The U.S. military and the national security state that those wars emboldened have become, in effect — and with a bow to the late Chalmers Johnson (a TomDispatch stalwart and a man who knew the gates of hell when he saw them) — a staggeringly well-funded blowback machine. In all these years, while three administrations pursued the spreading war on terror, America’s conflicts in distant lands were largely afterthoughts to its citizenry. Despite the largest demonstrations in history aimed at stopping a war before it began, once the invasion of Iraq occurred, the protests died out and, ever since, Americans have generally ignored their country’s wars, even as the blowback began. Someday, they will have no choice but to pay attention.

  • Graduates From America's Largest Schools Move Here With Their Diplomas

    The notion that Americans need a college education to succeed in the modern workforce is at the root of most of the millennial generation’s problems: With Americans bearing a collective $1.4 trillion debt burden, economists have blamed this debt pile for holding back millennials – keeping them from buying homes and starting families. 

    But the truth is much more complex. 

    In a recently published study, the Wall Street Journal gathered data from 445 large research universities and liberal arts colleges – as well as NCAA D-I schools – detailing where their alumni move after college.

    The maps below show their movement to 70 big metropolitan areas, as well as the share who moved to smaller communities.  

    As one might expect, graduates from brand-name Ivy League schools, along with their cohorts at smaller liberal arts institutions, overwhelmingly flock to urban areas like New York City, Washington DC and San Francisco.

    Meanwhile, students who attended large public research universities are more likely to settle down in suburban areas.

    WSJ breaks down its findings in a presentation showing how graduates disperse throughout the country.

    Las Vegas Has Little To Offer:

    Two

    * * *

    Some Punch Above Their Weight:

    College

    The biggest cities don’t necessarily draw the most students from colleges and universities in our study.

    San Francisco, for example ranks 11th in population but fifth in drawing power, attracting 2% or more of alumni from 139 schools.

    * * *

    Smaller Metro Areas Sometimes Have More Drawing Power:

    Three

    Seven

    Boston is the 10th biggest metro but ranks sixth in drawing 2% or more of alumni from institutions traced by some 120 schools.

    However, New York City, the country’s largest city, also draws 2% or more of the alumni of 263 schools, the most of any US city.

    * * *

    Smaller Metro And Rural Areas Have Less Drawing Power:

    Nine

    Only 62 schools in WSJ’s database saw more than half of their alumni move to smaller metropolitan and rural areas. Many of these colleges and universities are part of state university systems like the University of Connecticut or Purdue.

    * * *

    Big East Alumni Are More Likely To Live In Cities; SEC Grads Less So:

    George

    The Big East is the most urbane conference. Schools like Georgetown and Villanova send a large segment of their grads to New York City and Washington DC. Each of the 10 schools in the conference sends more than 75% of its former students to big metropolitan areas.

    Ole

    The SEC, which includes Ole Miss, Auburn and Kentucky, sends more students to smaller cities and rural areas than any other conference. Among SEC schools, only Vanderbilt sends more than 75% of its alumni to big city metro areas.

    And as millennials continue to favor urban environments, it’s likely these trends will continue to intensify, sending urban property values even higher than they already are.

  • Ranking The Most (And Least) Productive Industries

    Via Priceonomics.com,

    A common complaint for people about their workplace is that things never get done. Bureaucracy, politics, and coordination costs among teams means that projects are completed at a snail’s pace, if it all.

    You often see this complaint among people at large companies, where these dynamics can be especially pronounced. You also tend to hear about it in certain industries with a reputation for slowness.

    But is that actually true? Does it take longer for big companies to get work done than small companies? Are certain industries more or less productive than others? We decided to analyze our data to find out the answers to these questions.

    We analyzed data from Priceonomics customer Redbooth, a project management software company, to see how long it takes for work to get done at different types of companies. We looked at anonymized data from nine million tasks completed over the last year to see how long it takes to get work done and whether smaller or larger companies get work done faster. Not only that, but we also looked at whether some industries were more productive than others.

    We found that in fact, large companies get work done at about the same rate as small ones.  However, medium sized ones are 6.7% less productive than small ones, taking about 2.5 days more to complete a task.

    Among industries, there is a huge variation in how long it takes to get work done. The energy industry ranks as the slowest to get tasks done (tasks take 59 days on average). Financial companies are the fastest industry, where a task is completed in 31 days on average.

    *  *  *

    To begin, we look at how long it takes for work to get done and whether that varies by company size. On Redbooth, the foundational unit of measurement is a task. When you’re working on a project, users create a task and then mark the task as complete when they’re done. The time difference between task creation and completion is how long it takes to get your work done.

    While projects across companies and industries may be very different, at the task level there is a lot of commonality in terms of things that need to get done; tasks are often things like complete an RFP, fix a broken wireless network, hire a new employee. 

    The chart below shows the average time it takes to complete a task, split by small, medium and large companies:

    Data source: Redbooth

    Enormous companies with over five thousand employees get work done about as quickly as small ones with less than fifty people. It takes about an average of 36 days for a task to get done at a small or large company.

    Interestingly, mid-sized companies are the least productive. It takes 2.4 days more for an employee at a mid-sized companies to get their work done than at a small one. It’s possible that as companies grow, they become less productive as they cease to be small startups and now have to coordinate with many people. However, at some point, productivity enhancements need to be put in place to scale up to a large company. 

    Our findings partially confirm some recent economic research that in most countries, large companies are more productive than smaller ones. Not all small companies are fast moving startups after all, some are just small companies that struggle to compete against larger ones with more resources.

    Below, we break down the company size cohorts into more granular buckets. A similar picture of productivity remains: 

    Data source: Redbooth

    The segment of 51 to 10,000 employees is consistently the least productive. Companies with fewer than 10 employees or more than 100,000 both take on average about thirty five days to complete a task.  

    Our data indicates that large companies are just as productive as very small ones. Or if they are not, they’re at least good at scoping tasks in their project management system to be achievable during a reasonable time frame. 

    ***

    As the data above shows, company size plays a sizable role in productivity, but what other factors influence how quickly work gets done at a company?

    Next, we turn our attention to productivity by industry. Do certain sectors have more or less productive employees, as defined by how quickly it takes them to complete a task on average? 

    The chart below shows the average time to complete a task based on industry sector:

    Data source: Redbooth

    There is a pretty dramatic difference in how long it takes work to get done by industry. A task in the Energy sector takes about twice as long to complete as one in Financials. The next “slowest” industries are Materials and Utilities. Information Technology and Financials get work done the fastest. Later, we’ll dive into this data at a more granular level, but industries creating infrastructure and physical products tend to work at a more measured pace than ones that sell services.

    It might not necessarily be a bad thing, however, for a company to take a long time to complete its work tasks. If the tasks in the Energy industry are more complicated than in IT, you would expect the tasks to take longer. Or if you work in highly regulated industry like Healthcare, additional compliance steps may result in work taking longer to complete.

    We also have the ability to dive deeper into the industry taxonomy to get a more nuanced picture. Which “sub-industries” (more specialized work areas within a sector) get their work done completed fastest and slowest: 

    Data source: Redbooth

    Of the 51 industries we looked at, IT Services gets their work done in the least amount of time. This isn’t terribly surprising if the tasks are high priority items like “fix the email server” that have to be completed quickly for businesses to operate.  Dominating the “gets work done fast” are consumer facing industries ike Beverages, Personal Products, and Real Estate as well as “services” for businesses.

    Next, we look at industries that take the longest to get tasks accomplished:

    Data source: Redbooth

    The industry that takes the longest to complete a task is Metals & Mining.  It takes almost four times as long for a task to be completed here compared to IT services. Industries producing complicated physical goods like Aerospace & Defense and Technology Hardware, also take a long time for work to be completed.

    Curious where your industry stacks up in terms of productivity? To conclude, we present all the data on how long it takes for task completion in each industry where we have sufficient data to provide a productivity estimate. The chart belows shows industries grouped by their sector, sorted from working the slowest to the fastest:

    Data source: Redbooth

    Within a given sector, there are huge differences in how long it takes to complete work. For example in the Material sector, Metals & Mining tasks take almost 73 days, whereas Containers &  Packaging tasks take 26 days. Similarly, in the Financials sector, Capital Markets tasks take nearly twice as long as real estate ones do.

    *  *  *

    Depending on your industry and company size, it takes different amounts of time for work to get done.

    While one might expect big companies to be the slowest, the results revealed that they are just as productive at finishing their tasks as small companies. However, medium sized companies with 51 to 5000 employees are significantly slower at completing tasks than smaller or larger ones.

    Not surprising, the industry you work in helps determine the pace at which work gets done. Industries like Metals and Mining, Technology Hardware, and Aerospace & Defense have work that takes a long time to complete. On the other hand, service providers like IT Services and Commercial Services providers are expected to get their work done much faster. If you’re building a rocket, you can take your time. If you’re responsible for fixing the Internet in the office, you best get the task done quickly.

  • Median-Priced Home In San Francisco Requres $333,000 Annual Income

    San Francisco County Real Estate is so hot right now that in order to afford a median priced home of $1,610,000, a household needs to bring in around $333,000 in annual income, according to a quarterly survey by the California Association of Realtors. 

    Nearby San Mateo county isn’t much better – where a $1,575,000 median priced home requires an income of $326,000. 

    The good news, at least for well off San Franciscans, is that more households – 15% – were able to buy a median-priced single-family home in the first quarter of 2018 vs. the fourth quarter of 2017, thanks to rising incomes which rose faster than the increase in home prices and interest rates. 

    Six out of nine bay area counties (Alameda, Contra Costa, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, and Santa Clara) were responsible for the majority of the affordability gains, according to the CAR, while affordability decreased in two counties (Solano and Sonoma). 

    Statewide the situation is much more reasonable:

    • Thirty-one percent of California households could afford to purchase the $538,640 median-priced home in the first quarter of 2018, up from 29 percent in fourth-quarter 2017 but down from 32 percent a year ago.

    • A minimum annual income of $111,500 was needed to make monthly payments of $2,790, including principal, interest, and taxes on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at a 4.44 percent interest rate.

    • Thirty-nine percent of home buyers were able to purchase the $449,720 median-priced condo or townhome. An annual income of $93,090 was required to make a monthly payment of $2,330.

    In Southern California, affordability improved in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Bernardino and Ventuira, while remaining flat in Orange and San Diego counties during the first quarter in 2018. 

    For those seeking California’s most affordable areas, Lassen, Kern, Kings and San Bernardino counties top the list. 

    California counties have become far less affordable since “peak affordability” in 2012, with Bay Area homes dropping from 45% to 23% in just 8 years, while the overall affordability in the United States went from 75% in 2012 to 57% in Q1 2018. 

    Fun fact: Property tax on the average San Francisco home is $1,593 per month – while the average rent for a 1 bedroom apartment in California is $1,430 per month ($940 nationally). 

  • Big Brother: Police Raid Home Of Man Who Posted Pictures Of His Mushroom Dinner On Facebook

    Authored by Jay Syrmopoulos via TruthInMedia.com,

    On May 11, a man named John Garrison posted a public photo on Facebook showing morel mushrooms he had gathered while foraging with his girlfriend Hope Deery, and wrote of his plans to “sautee them with brown sugar and cinnamon and see how that turns out.”

    Garrison went on to claim that his original Facebook post about morel mushrooms, which are a legal and sought-after delicacy, led to a visit to his home hours later from law enforcement apparently investigating possible use of psychedelic mushrooms commonly referred to as “magic mushrooms.”

    Photography is Not a Crime reported that police appeared at his house less than 24 hours later, questioning Garrison and Deery about why they were “eating mushrooms and posting about it online.”

    We had just finished eating the Morels we found today and heard a knock on the door. A police officer and an RA were standing outside. We let them in and as soon as the police officer walked in he asked us why we were eating mushrooms and posting about it online. He thought he was on the biggest bust of his career thinking we were having a magic mushroom party before I explained to him that Morels are a native choice edible mushroom similar to truffles,” Garrison wrote in an additional Facebook post.

    The officer allegedly refused to believe that the couple ingested legal mushrooms. Garrison, in an effort to prove that they were simply morel mushrooms, said that he retrieved a piece of the mushroom from the trash— but the officer still refused to believe they hadn’t broken the law until a second officer arrived on the scene and confirmed it was a legal mushroom. Before the officers left, Garrison said his ID was processed.

    He wasn’t convinced. So I rummaged through the trash to find a piece of a Morel so that he would have evidence that we weren’t taking psychedelic mushrooms. I showed him and he still wasn’t convinced that they weren’t magic mushrooms, Which was shocking to me because morels look nothing like a psychedelic psilocybin mushrooms and I figured a police officer would know what illegal drugs looked like. A second police officer showed up and I showed her the Morel and she immediately knew it was a Morel which was a relief. They processed our ID’s and eventually left. What an experience,” Garrison wrote.

    It appears Big Brother is well and truly here… and he’s watching you!

  • US Birth Rate Hits All-Time Low: What's Behind The Decline?

    The number of babies born in the United States has hit a 40-year low, according to figures published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). 

    Provisional 2017 estimates reveal that around 3.8 million babies were born in the U.S. in 2017, a fertility rate of 1.76 births per woman. This is a 2% drop from 2016 – marking the largest single-year drop in the U.S. birth rate since 2010, and is significantly lower than the 4.31 million babies born in 2007 when the fertility rate was 2.08 births per woman.

    When the data is restricted to women aged 15 – 44, there were around 60 births per 1,000 mothers – a 3% drop from 2016, and the lowest record rate since the government began keeping track in 1909. 

    Since 2007, fertility has fallen the most for the youngest women, but in the last year, declines have set in for women in their 30s as well. Fertility declines increasingly seem to be about much more than just postponed fertility, or else these women must be planning to have some very fertile 40s.

    At least through 2016, this trend appeared to be mostly driven by changes in marital status. Births to never-married women are down more than births to ever-married women: age-adjusted marital fertility is down 14% since 2007, while age-adjusted never-married fertility is down 21%, as of 2016. Preliminary data from several states suggest these trends are likely to continue in 2017. –IFS

    The teen birth rate fell 7% from 2016-2017, down to 19 births per 1,000 teen mothers aged 15-19 – while the birth rate for women under 40 generally declined to record lows. 

    When looking at fertility by race, the decline has hit minorities particularly hard vs. non-Hispanic whites. 

    the decline in fertility has been far greater among minorities than among non-Hispanic whites.

    The deficit varies across racial and ethnic groups. American Indians and Alaska Natives have it worst among racial groups, having lost a whopping 15% of expected fertility from 2008 to 2016, or about 83,000 births, with total fertility rates falling from 1.62 births per woman to a shockingly low 1.23. It’s unclear exactly why Native American fertility has fallen so quickly and why it is so low, but they are indisputably the hardest-hit race in the fertility declines of the last 10 years. –IFS

    African American births are down 9.6%, or around 700,00 babies – which is only slightly worse than whites, who are down 9.3%, or around 3.2 million births.

    “Black fertility declined from 2.15 births per woman to 1.89, while white fertility fell from 2.14 to 1.82,” reads IFR‘s analysis, while “Asians experienced a less severe decline, but their fertility was somewhat lower to start with.”

    The fertility rate among whites is a bit misleading, admits IFR, as it includes most Hispanics – who have historically higher birth rates than non-Hispanic whites. When looking at Hispanics as a whole, the birth rate between 2008-2016 has declined nearly 19%.

    Thus, in racial or ethnic terms, America’s “Baby Bust” is kinda, sorta, a little bit racist: it’s hammered Native Americans and Hispanics particularly hard, and hit even African Americans harder than whites generally, and certainly harder than non-Hispanic whites. The call to boost fertility is far from being a call for whites to keep up with minority fertility; rather, it’s an exhortation that we need to be listening to the fertility desires of women of racial and ethnic minorities, who are experiencing precipitous declines in fertility, largely unnoticed by the white-dominated world of mommy-blogs and late-in-life fertility treatments. Any serious pro-natal policy in America worth its salt would primarily result in birth gains among minority mothers, not white ones. Accelerating the national birth rate would also accelerate the pace at which the non-Hispanic white population share declines.-IFR

    North Dakotans Are Gettin’ It On

    While birth rates in most states have declined, North Dakota has experienced an increase in births. 

    On the other hand, residents of Arizona don’t seem to feel the need to breed – where fertility rates have fallen from 2.47 births per woman in 2007 to an estimated 1.81 last year.  

    Provisional data from early 2018 suggests these declines are likely to continue. Arizona is double-whammied by two different racial or ethnic trends: steep declines among Hispanics and steep declines among Native Americans. Both groups make up a larger share of Arizona’s population than the national average. Both groups have seen steep declines within Arizona; steeper even than their peers in other states. –IFR

    In terms of education, the drop in fertility rates have been higher for less educated woman vs. their more educated peers. As IFR notes, “Age-adjusted fertility has fallen 15% for women with a bachelor’s degree or less, versus just 7% for women with graduate degrees. On the whole, births to women with no bachelor’s have totaled 12% below what would be expected if 2007 fertility rates had continued, yielding 3.1 million missing births, while births to women with a bachelor’s degree are down 10% for 1.1 million missing births, and births to women with a graduate degree are down just 7%, or 300,000.”

    The takeaway is that class is not the biggest factor in declining fertility rates. Instead, race, ethnicity, marital status and geography appear to have far more relevance.

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 17th May 2018

  • Putin Drives Dump Truck Across $3.6 Billion Bridge He Built To Crimea

    Russian President Vladimir Putin unveiled the auto section of a $3.6 billion (223 billion rouble) road-and-rail bridge over the Kersch Strait on Tuesday linking Russia to the Crimean peninsula – much to the consternation of Ukrainian officials who said the bridge showed “disregard for international law.” 

    The bridge will be the longest dual-purpose span bridge in Europe, with the rail section expected to be completed at the end of 2019. 

    The road stretch of the bridge was due to be completed by the end of 2018, but the opening was moved up at Putin’s request. He inspected the bridge in March ahead of the presidential election he won, saying it was important to have the link to the Black Sea peninsula open for the summer tourist season. –CBC

    “Putin initiated this project himself. Many didn’t believe these plans were possible,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Tuesday before the ceremony, adding “This is an extremely important day from this point of view and in a practical sense and in symbolic terms.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Putin drove the Russian-made KAMAZ dump truck in a convoy of vehicles across the 19-kilometre [11.8 mile] bridge over the Kerch Strait. Some Russians are calling it “Putin’s bridge,” designed to link Crimea into Russia’s transport network. –CBC

    Putin, dressed in blue jeans, was met by cheering workers on the Crimean side who he told “At last, thanks to your talent, this project, this miracle, has happened.”  

    [insert: 0917_Ukraine_Russia_infra_kerch_bridge Crimea Cropped.jpg , DdP3YlMX4AIxpCr.jpg ]

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko slammed Putin’s actions from Kiev.

    The illegal construction of the Kerch bridge is the latest evidence of the Kremlin’s disregard for international law,” Poroshenko said, adding “It is particularly cynical that its opening is happening on the eve of the latest anniversary of the deportation of the Crimean-Tatar people by the Stalin regime.”

    Meanwhile, US State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert says the United States condemns the construction and partial opening of the bridge, which it says was done “without the permission of the government of #Ukraine. Crimea is Ukraine.” 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The United States condemns Russia’s construction and partial opening of the Kerch Strait Bridge between Russia and occupied Crimea, which was done without the permission of the government of Ukraine. Crimea is part of Ukraine. Russia’s construction of the bridge serves as a reminder of Russia’s ongoing willingness to flout international law.

    The bridge represents not only an attempt by Russia to solidify its unlawful seizure and its occupation of Crimea, but also impedes navigation by limiting the size of ships that can transit the Kerch Strait, the only path to reach Ukraine’s territorial waters in the Sea of Azov. We call on Russia not to impede this shipping. -US Department of State

    The bridge also drew criticism from Europe, after the French foreign ministry said “France condemns the construction by Russia of the Kerch Bridge, which deprives Ukraine of full access and the use of its internationally recognized territorial waters.” Meanwhile, a spokesperson for the European External Action Service said on Tuesday that the bridge was “another violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.” 

    “The European Union continues to condemn the illegal annexation of Crimea and Sevastopol by Russia and will not recognize this violation of international law,” the spokesperson said.

    Crimea broke away from Ukraine following a bloody US-sponsored coup, when in a March 2014 Crimean referendum 95% of participating voters were in favor of secession of the ethnically Russian region. Ukrainian officials disputed the vote, with then-acting President Oleksander Turchinov stating that “The authorities in Crimea are totally illegitimate, both the parliament and the government.” 

    The State Department-backed fiasco led to the Obama administration imposing harsh sanctions on the Russian Federation, after Obama told Putin during a phone call that “Russia’s actions were in violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.” 

    Putin pushed back, likening Crimea’s self-determined referendum to Kosovo’s breakaway from Serbia in 2008. 

    “Regarding the March 16 referendum in Crimea, Mr Putin said that the decision to hold the referendum was in line with international law and the U.N. Charter, and was also in line with the precedent set by Kosovo,” the Kremlin said.

    While the reaction on Twitter was mostly tepid, there were a few tweets of support for the bridge: 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jshttps://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  • Armenia's Pashinyan Meets Putin: Pledges Continued Russian-Armenian Friendship

    Authored by Alexander Mercouris via The Duran,

    Russian President Vladimir Putin and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan – the latter recently installed as Armenia’s leader following nationwide protests – had their first bilateral meeting in Sochi on Monday on the sidelines of the Eurasian Economic Union summit.

    The summary of the exchanges between the two leaders provided by the Kremlin’s website shows that Putin took the opportunity to remind Pashinyan of Russia’s economic importance to Armenia, whilst Pashinyan for his part thanked Putin for Russia’s neutral position during the protests, and reaffirmed Armenia’s continued friendship with Russia.

    Pashinyan specifically reaffirmed Armenia’s continued membership of the Russian led Eurasian Economic Union, and spoke of deepening Armenia’s military ties with Russia.

    President of Russia Vladimir Putin: Mr Prime Minister, colleagues,

    I would like to welcome you to Russia and to congratulate you once again, this time in person, on your election to the high position of Prime Minister of Armenia.

    First of all, I would like to say that we view Armenia, as everyone knows, as our closest partner and ally in the region. I am referring to both economic and security cooperation.

    As you know, Russia is a leading trade and economic partner of Armenia. Its share is estimated at over 25 percent. Russia’s investment accounts for approximately 35 percent of all foreign investment in Armenia. Our trade has grown recently, also by some 25 percent. Armenian agricultural deliveries to Russia are growing at a fast pace, or more precisely, by 38 percent over the past few months.

    Overall, this is very good progress and I hope that we will not just maintain but also boost it.

    I would like to wish you every success on the post of the Prime Minister of Armenia. I hope that our relations will continue to develop consistently, just as they did before, and that we will continue to work together on the international stage as well as at international organisations, starting from the UN, where Armenia and Russia have always supported each other, and ending with regional organisations, both in security and economic development matters.

    Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan: Mr President, thank you for your kind words.

    It is very gratifying that, just a few days after I was elected Prime Minister of Armenia, I have this opportunity to have a meeting with you, because I think that we have things to discuss.

    There is also something that does not need to be discussed: the allied strategic relations between Armenia and Russia. In general, I can assure you that there is consensus on this matter in Armenia, and nobody has ever questioned the strategic importance of Armenian-Russian relations, or ever will.

    We are quite set on giving a fresh impetus to our relations – both in the political and trade and economic sense. We hope to develop our relations in the military technical sector as well as in other industries.

    Many people from Russia visit Armenia, which is very good. I think Russians like Armenia very much, and Armenians also enjoy having so many tourists in Yerevan.

    I would like to say that we highly appreciate the balanced position that Russia held in the course of our domestic political crisis, and I think it was a very constructive position; it is highly appreciated not only by our Government, but also in Armenian society in general.

    Once again, please accept my best wishes on Victory Day. It was very interesting to watch the May 9 parade on Red Square. It is popular in Armenia and we are very impressed by the achievements that the Russian defence industry has made.

    Thank you once again for this opportunity.

    Pashinyan’s pledges of continued friendship to Russia will be judged cynically by many people, including by my colleague in The Duran Frank Sellers, who see them as nothing more than a device by Pashinyan to play for time whilst he sets about cutting back Armenia’s connections to Russia.

    Many see hope in the fact that he plans to attend the Eurasian Economic Union summit next month and to meet with the Russian President Vladimir Putin, together with the fact that he admits that Armenia needs Russia as a military ally, but given his life story and participation in the events recorded here, there seems to be little real hope of that.

    Is this a Western backed color revolution? It’s actually hard to cast doubt on that fact, given his connections with Soros funded NGOs who have as their purpose the remaking of Armenia into a NATO member state which looks somewhat less than fondly at Russia as the originator of Armenia’s woes.

    With a perception that prosperity will surely be the Armenian inheritance of an integration into the Western political and economic bloc, which perception comes from anywhere but reality. It really can’t be doubted that this movement, led by a man with a history of hostility towards Russia and a long history of working in the interests of the US and its NGOs, is something that was hatched in Washington and delivered via the CIA’s vicarious operatives, the Open Society Foundation and its ilk.

    The country’s post soviet poverty and Sargsyan’s perceived power grab are the grievances that were immediately capitalized upon in order to carry out this so called ‘velvet revolution’. Pashinyan says that he wants to maintain Armenia’s balancing act between the East and West, preserving ties and agreements with Russia while pursuing the partnership of the West, it should be noted that Saakashvili made a similar such promise upon assuming control of Georgia in a similar such incident.

    Of course, he knows that he can’t be so bold as to immediately cut off ties with the Russians this early in the game, as Armenia is simply too dependent on Russia to make any real changes to Armenia’s foreign policy at this time, but that this represents his long term goal remains a matter to be seen.

    I take the diametrically opposite view.  I believe that whatever Pashinyan may have said in the past his pledges of continued friendship with Russia and of Armenia’s adhesion to the Eurasian Economic Union are genuine.

    After all, as Pashinyan himself said over the course of his meeting with Putin,

    …….there is consensus on this matter in Armenia, and nobody has ever questioned the strategic importance of Armenian-Russian relations, or ever will…..

    Given Armenia’s economic and geographic realities, and the rapid military build up in Azerbaijan, Armenia has no real choice, even if the Armenian people wanted such a choice, of which there is no real sign that they do.

    Armenia’s relations with Russia were not an issue in the recent protests, which at no point took on an anti-Russian character.

    As I have pointed out previously, that is in total contrast to the Maidan protests in Ukraine of 2013 and 2014, in which passionate hostility to Russia was the main driving factor.  That in itself is a major point of difference between the two sets of protests: the recent protests in Armenia and the Maidan protests in Ukraine.

    I remain of the view that the Armenian protests were a strictly internal affair, provoked by the actions of the previous Sargsyan government, and have no geopolitical significance.

    Moreover the very fact that – as Pashinyan says – there is “consensus” within Armenia about the importance of Armenia’s relations with Russia in itself places limits on what Pashinyan can do, even if he genuinely does seek to sever Armenia’s relations with Russia, which of course he denies.

    Last but not least, there is the fact that even Western oriented commercially minded Armenians – and all Armenians, at least in their own estimation, are to an extent commercially minded – can see for themselves the huge commercial and economic benefits to them personally and for Armenia of Armenia retaining access to the vast Russian market through its membership of the Eurasian Economic Union.

    By contrast it is impossible to see a good economic future for Armenia – or indeed (given the geopolitical realities) any real future for Armenia – if it severs its links to Russia.

    For all these reasons, unlike Frank Sellers, I believe that when Pashinyan says he wants to maintain or even enhance Armenia’s relations with Russia, he means what he says.

    He would be a fool if he didn’t, and whatever else he is, Pashinyan doesn’t seem to me to be a fool.

    Time will show which of us – Frank Sellers or myself – is right.

  • Checkmate: Russia's Hypersonic Missile Ready For War By 2020

    Russia’s new weapons for the modern battlefield, including an array of hypersonic missiles and the latest nuclear systems, will secure the country’s security for many decades, President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday at a conference with top military officials.

    Speaking in Sochi, Putin said the brand-new weapon systems unveiled this year will significantly expand Russia’s military capabilities and “ensure a strategic balance for decades” with the United States.

    President Vladimir Putin used his state-of-the-nation speech in March to deliver a stern warning to Washington that Moscow possesses hypersonic weapons that can render NATO’s U.S.-led missile defense system completely “useless.”

    Underwater drones, hypersonic warheads, balls of fire, “menacing” ICBMs – the peak of Putin speech at the state-of-the-nation address in March. (Source: Tom Parfitt) 

    “Efforts to contain Russia have failed, face it,” Putin announced in a two-hour speech at his annual state of the nation address in Moscow, which included computer simulations of new weapons including hypersonic systems, intercontinental missiles, and underwater drones.

    Earlier this week, CNBC validated Putin’s claim of a hypersonic weapon the U.S. is currently unable to defend against, which the report indicates the weapon will be ready for war by 2020, according to sources with vast knowledge of American intelligence reports.

    The sources told CNBC that Moscow successfully tested the hypersonic glide vehicle in 2016, which was configured to carry nuclear warheads. Sources said a third test was completed in October 2017 and resulted in a mishap seconds before obliterating its target.

    The hypersonic glide vehicle, dubbed “Avangard” (also called ‘Objekt 4202′, Yu-71 and Yu-74), is fastened onto an intercontinental ballistic missile using scramjet engine technology. Once launched, the Avangard reaches speeds of Mach 20 with the capacity to carry both nuclear and conventional payloads.

    Avangard video demonstration from Putin’s speech in March.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Sources said it is still unclear whether the hypersonic glide vehicle will carry explosives, due to just Mach 20 capabilities can pack enough force to annihilate targets. In March, Putin said the Avangard strikes “like a meteorite, like a fireball.”

    Putin said at Tuesday’s conference that Russia’s hypersonic program to produce the world’s most advanced weapons would remain a high priority. He mentioned in March that the missile entered series production.

    “These kinds of boost-glide vehicles attack the gaps in our missile defense system,” Thomas Karako, director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told CNBC.

    “There’s no time like the present to modify our current missile defense posture,” Karako added, saying it was “unfortunate that we have let Russia come this far.”

    Sources familiar with Russia’s hypersonic program asses that the hypersonic glide vehicles equipped with “onboard countermeasures,” can defeat NATO’s U.S.-led missile defenses. The weapon is capable of sharp evasive maneuvers — making it virtually undetectable to radar.

    The intelligence reports, which were released for government officials this spring, estimate that Russia’s hypersonic glide vehicles could be on the modern battlefield by 2020, a significant move on the geopolitical chessboard that would surpass Washington and Beijing in their capacity to yield an operational hypersonic weapon on the modern battlefield.

    In March, the commander of the United States Strategic Command told the Senate Armed Services Committee that U.S. forces are unable to shield against a hypersonic weapon attack.

    “We don’t have any defense that could deny the employment of such a weapon against us,” Air Force Gen. John Hyten, commander of U.S. Strategic Command, told the Senate Armed Services Committee. “Both Russia and China are aggressively pursuing hypersonic capabilities,” he added, noting that the U.S. has “watched them test those capabilities.”

    Hyten suggested that the U.S. is powerless against hypersonic weapon threats and has to rely on increased deterrence to counter the threat.

    Hyten added, “so our response would be our deterrent force which would be the triad and the nuclear capabilities that we have to respond to such a threat.” In other words, if Russia launches a hypersonic missile attack on the U.S., the Pentagon will respond with nuclear war.

    On the geopolitical chessboard, it seems as Moscow declared checkmate with Washington via the development and rapid fielding of hypersonic weapons that render NATO’s U.S.-led missile defense system entirely worthless. America’s military-industrial complex recognizes this as a crisis and is willing to bankrupt the United States with unprecedented amounts of military spending to counter this threat. As for now, Russia has the upper hand in hypersonic weapons, which Washington is starting to realize the idea of American Hegemony is beginning to crack.

  • NHTSA Opens Third Investigation Into A Tesla Crash This Year

    Just yesterday we wrote that it was starting to feel like the movie Groundhog Day for Tesla when it comes to the company’s executive departures.  Now, there is again a distinct Groundhog Day feel to Tesla – but this time as it relates to U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) investigations.

    Continuing in what has been an unprecedented storm of negative headlines for Elon Musk’s company that started a couple months ago, it was announced today that the NHTSA is going to be investigating a recent Tesla crash in Utah. Reuters reported:

    The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said on Wednesday that it was sending a team to investigate the crash of a Tesla Inc vehicle last week in Utah that the driver said occurred while the car was in autopilot mode. It is the third Tesla crash that may be linked to the semi-autonomous Autopilot system being investigated by the government agency since January.

    “The agency has launched its special crash investigations team to gather information on the South Jordan, Utah, crash,” the agency said on Wednesday. “NHTSA will take appropriate action based on its review.”

    That crash, as described previously, involved a Tesla Model S sedan which smashed into a Salt Lake City fire truck while traveling at 60 miles per hour last Friday night. The driver said she was using autopilot at the time of the crash and suffered a broken ankle.

    The big surprise, as the article points out, is that this is the third investigation that the NHTSA has launched into Tesla since January. This should be of concern for the company as the NHTSA has the authority to force the company into issuing recalls which, if costly enough, could be a financial hurdle that Tesla might have trouble surviving in its current financial state.

    NHTSA is also investigating a fatal crash in March that involved a Tesla Model X using Autopilot. It is also probing the January crash of a Tesla vehicle apparently traveling in Autopilot that struck a fire truck. Both incidents were in California.

    Last week, NHTSA also said it would probe a May 8 Tesla accident in Florida that killed two teenagers and injured another. Autopilot was not thought to play a part.

    NHTSA can order a recall if it finds a defect poses an unreasonable risk to safety.

    Certainly the timing of this NHTSA regulatory scrutiny couldn’t be worse for the company, because in addition to its precarious financials, the company main liason to regulators sch as the NTSB and NHTSA departed the company just days ago. 

    Last Saturday, Tesla competitor Waymo announced that Tesla’s Matt Schwall has begun working for the self-driving car unit. According to Schwall’s LinkedIn Bio, he had been Tesla’s “primary technical contact” with both the NTSB & NHTSA, suggesting the company’s troubles with government regulators may be set to escalate.

    Regulators aside, analysts have continued to question why the revolving door of executives continues and explore what the potential complications could be as a result. Needless to say, it isn’t good news for Tesla. 

    Also as a reminder, on Sunday morning the WSJ wrote a scathing critique of Tesla’s autopilot,” In Self-Driving Car Road Test, We Are the Guinea Pigs” in which it questioned the validity of Elon Musk’s claims about Tesla’s safety record:

    Tesla says that its cars with autonomous driving technology are 3.7 times safer than the average American vehicle. It’s true that Teslas are among the safest cars on the road, but it isn’t clear how much of this safety is due to the driving habits of its enthusiast owners (for now, those who can afford Teslas) or other factors, such as build quality or the cars’ crash avoidance technology, rather than Autopilot.

    In the wake of a fatal 2016 crash, which happened when Autopilot was engaged, Tesla cited a report by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration as evidence that Autopilot mode makes Teslas 40% safer. NHTSA recently clarified the report was based on Tesla’s own unaudited data, and NHTSA didn’t take into account whether Autopilot was engaged. Complicating things further, Tesla rolled out an auto-braking safety feature—which almost certainly reduced crashes—shortly before it launched Autopilot.

    As the WSJ also notes, “there isn’t enough data to verify that self-driving vehicles cause fewer accidents than human-driven ones.” A Rand Corp. study concluded that traffic fatalities already occur at such relatively low rates—on the order of 1 per 100 million miles traveled—that determining whether self-driving cars are safer than humans could take decades.

    For now, we’ll wait for the NHTSA’s verdict.

  • Brandon Smith: Global Elitists Are Not Human

    Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

    It is often said that “other-izing” people overall can be dangerous and other-izing your enemies specifically can be tactically detrimental. For one, it can lead to a false sense of superiority over those people as you assert some kind of imagined genetic advantage. It can also lead to dangerous generalizations of vast groups as you categorize and pigeonhole millions as being exactly the same when this is rationally impossible. However, other-izing is perhaps the only option when faced with a very particular type of person embracing a very particular brand of ideology; other-izing can become a matter of survival.

    I am of course talking about globalists.

    Not the low level cronies and useful idiots within the globalist push or “movement,” because many of them simply represent a underlying gullibility or stupidity among people attracted to the inbred world of academia. Instead, I’m talking about the people behind the curtain; self proclaimed “globalists” or internationalists that have positioned themselves into strategic power centers.

    I am talking about the people that influence or outright control government policy as they stand over the shoulders of supposedly freely elected officials. I am talking about the people that influence economic security or insecurity through unaccountable central banking conglomerates. I am talking about the men and women that desire to dictate the fate of billions.

    These people are not easily identified by anything other than their rhetoric and actions. They are made up of multiple ethnic groups. They herald from all corners of the planet. They do not subscribe to any one spiritual doctrine, but they do publicly devote themselves to many different religions as a means to “fit in” with the common citizen. Globalism IS their religion. And their god? Well, they see themselves as gods.

    To be a globalist, though, one has to do more than merely subscribe to the tenets of globalism; there is a matter of character traits and actions which must be examined.

    After studying the behavior of globalists and their organizations for quite some time, I have noticed that their psychological patterns tend to match with a narrow band of people that are best described as “criminally insane.” More accurately, globalists behave like high-functioning narcissistic sociopaths and psychopaths. But what are the traits of such people? Let’s take a look at some of them…

    False Sense Of Superiority – Self-Aggrandizement

    Every person wants to be seen as important or unique. But, narcissistic sociopaths believe themselves to be entitled to special treatment and see themselves as above the laws and niceties of normal society. They sometimes seek to prop up this attitude through “accomplishment;” scratching for positions of power and influence in order to reinforce the notion that they are special compared to others.

    Of course, power is usually an artificial construct because the only power we have over others is the power they give us, knowingly or unknowingly. Power does not make one special. The narcissistic sociopath does not make such distinctions, however. He/she only distinguishes between the people who strive for dominance and everyone else. In their minds, people that covet power are a superior subspecies, while people who do not covet power are considered bugs.

    Frankly, I see no reason why we should not make the same absolute statement, only in reverse.

    Narcissistic sociopaths and psychopaths are stricken with visions of assumed greatness. They do not view the content of their accomplishments as necessarily important. Meaning, they think they were born great, therefore, it is not for them to accomplish anything that serves to help others or advance the knowledge of humanity. They don’t care about proving their greatness through legitimate achievement, they only care that people BELIEVE they are special, that they are anointed.

    Manipulation And Coercion

    A narcissistic sociopath usually prefers to get what they want easily. They expect people to hand them adoration and control automatically. But if they don’t get what they want as a matter of course, they will use any means at their disposal.

    This usually includes the threat of force or the use of force, the use of torture, the use of elaborate lies and schemes to push their target into a corner (to make them behave in a specific manner), the use of psychological conditioning (molding behavior, usually through fear responses) and also the use of “gaslighting” (accusing the target of being “crazy” if they do not subscribe to the narcissist’s twisted view of the world).

    Of course, this kind of disturbed person is never actually satisfied, even when they do get what they want. They always want more, there is always something else they need to fill the endless void within.

    Lack Of Empathy For Others

    Not all narcissists are sociopaths, but most sociopaths are narcissists. When we speak of narcissists, it is important to remember that there are varying degrees of this psychological cancer. When I mention globalists in particular as being “narcissistic,” I am referring to their propensity to be high functioning narcissists with sociopathic tendencies. In other words, they are narcissists that not only have an inflated sense of self worth, but they are also devoid of empathy and conscience. They are willing to harm others to any degree to get what they want in the moment as long as they think can avoid consequences for doing so.

    There is also the matter of distinction between sociopaths and psychopaths. This is a little hard to describe being that they are so similar in many respects. I would put it this way — while sociopaths chase a goal and are willing to step on people to get to it, psychopaths step on people even when they don’t have a goal in mind. That is to say, the psychopath enjoys the act of destruction; what they want most of all is other people’s pain.

    Sociopaths and psychopaths both appear to permeate the ranks of globalist institutions. Some of them want to build an idol to themselves and don’t care who they harm in the process. Some of them derive great enjoyment from simply hurting as many people as possible.

    Desperate Need For Adoration

    It is not enough for the narcissistic sociopath to attain a level of respect through coercion. Ultimately, what they want is for the lowly masses to voluntarily ACCEPT their greatness as absolute, as an obvious and undeniable fact of life. What they want is reverence and devotion. As mentioned earlier, they want to be treated as gods by the people around them, and if they are particularly ambitious, by everyone in the world.

    This is a strange dynamic indeed, for it requires a highly elaborate set of schemes and manipulations. If one is not a great person, let alone god-like, the amount of psychological conditioning needed to convince people otherwise is substantial. This makes the narcissistic sociopath a potential slave to his/her own incessantly engineered conspiracies; lies pile upon lies and schemes upon schemes in the search for something they will never truly achieve.

    Globalists Are Psychologically Broken Non-Humans

    In the world of alternative analysis and investigative journalism it is not uncommon to run into people who attribute an otherworldly status to globalists. Some people see them as a representation of biblical Apocalypse — minions from the depths of hell. Others see them as literally alien — interdimensional beings posing as human. And while many will laugh at such people as fringe conspiracy freaks, I think it is important to understand why they see the globalists this way.

    When faced with true and organized evil empty of all care or remorse, one may be tempted to apply supernatural explanations.  I’m not sure that I am against the idea.

    Globalists exhibit most if not all the telltale signs of narcissistic sociopaths, including being devoid of conscience and moral compass. While there are many definitions of what it is that makes us human, there is a kind of universal requirement regardless of culture; namely the requirement of something like a soul.

    What makes a soul? How about a basic desire to do right by others even if that means not getting what we want all the time?  This is a good starting point, but there is more to it than that.

    Psychologists and scientists have over many decades found a pattern of inherent character traits hardwired in the human psyche, traits present in humans from the moment of birth that stand outside of the influences of social environment. Carl Jung was the foremost expert in this field of “archetypal qualities,” with a vast catalog of case studies from around the world including studies in tribal Africa. An important part of archetypal or inborn knowledge and traits is the notion of good and evil; we are born understanding that certain behaviors are constructive while others are destructive and abhorrent. This is most likely the source of what we call “conscience.”

    Unfortunately, not all people are born with a conscience. In some people, the difference between good and evil or constructive and destructive behavior is treated as blurry or frivolous. Jung and other psychologists mark this subset of our species as “latent” sociopaths and psychopaths. Together they make up around 10% of any given culture or group. Many of them remain “latent” and more or less harmless for their entire lives unless certain unstable environmental conditions provide fuel for their malfunction. Around 1% are born as full blown sociopaths and psychopaths. These are what I would call the “non-humans.”

    This is because high level narcissism and sociopathy are not traditional “mental illnesses,” but ingrained character traits. A narcissistic sociopath cannot be “cured” of his ailment because it is not an ailment, it is who they are. If you were to take the narcissism and sociopathy away from them, there would be nothing left to their personality.

    When a normal person comes in contact with someone that has no inherent conscience there is an immediate recoil; a sense that they have just stumbled across a monster. This is not an exaggeration, this is entirely accurate.

    High level narcissists and sociopaths are physically human of course, but if we were to peer in at a visual representation of their psyche, we would find a barren wasteland — a place where ghouls lurk. They do not dream as normal people dream. They do not feel joy in the manner normal people do. They do not feel fulfillment in the things that commonly lift up the rest of us. They are incapable of love for others. They are incapable of regret for their actions, and only ever feel regret over failing to get what they want. They do not see other people as individuals, they see them as tools to be exploited.

    Being sociopathic though does not mean that they are ignorant of what makes the rest of us function. On the contrary, sociopaths are very good at identifying the personal desires and drives of others, and mimicking people in a way that makes them seem “human.” They are parasites by nature,and thus they have to be able to get close to their host victims if they are to survive.

    The globalist dynamic is interesting in that it is an example of organized narcissistic sociopathy.  Globalists have stood at the forefront of numerous wars, economic collapses and tyrannies over the years, all ending in great suffering for the masses.  Contrary to popular belief, sociopaths and psychopaths DO work together towards a common goal as long as there is a sense of mutual benefit. In fact, these people seem to gravitate to each other in odd ways. It is my belief that globalist hierarchies actually seek out people with narcissistic and sociopathic personalities; that they do this deliberately when they wish to expand their ranks. These seem to be the only aspects that they all have in common.

    It is quite a ‘conspiracy theory’, I know. But look at it this way, how else can we explain their tendencies and behaviors? If organized annihilation was an intrinsic value of humanity then we would have died out long ago. The globalists are not human, though. They are something opposite, and if you do not understand this core truth, they can be bewildering and terrifying.

    *  *  *

    If you would like to support the publishing of articles like the one you have just read, visit our donations page here.  We greatly appreciate your patronage.

  • Ultrasonic Attacks Can Trigger Alexa & Siri With Hidden Commands, Raise Serious Security Risks

    Over the last two years, academic researchers have identified various methods that they can transmit hidden commands that are undetectable by the human ear to Apple’s Siri, Amazon’s Alexa, and Google’s Assistant.

    According to a new report from The New York Times, scientific researchers have been able “to secretly activate the artificial intelligence systems on smartphones and smart speakers, making them dial phone numbers or open websites.” This could, perhaps, allow cybercriminals to unlock smart-home doors, control a Tesla car via the App, access users’ online bank accounts, load malicious browser-based cryptocurrency mining websites, and or access all sort of personal information.

    In 2017, Statista projected around 223 million people in the U.S. would be using a smartphone device, which accounts for roughly 84 percent of all mobile users. Of these 223 million smartphones users, around 108 million Americans are using the Android Operating System, and some 90 million are using Apple’s iOS (operating system). A new Gallup poll showed that 22 percent of Americans are actively using Amazon Echo or Google Assitant in their homes.

    With much of the country using artificial intelligence systems on smartphones and smart speakers, a new research document published from the University of California, Berkeley indicates inaudible commands could be embedded “directly into recordings of music or spoken text,” said The New York Times.

    For instance, a millennial could be listening to their favorite song: ‘The Middle’ by Zedd, Maren Morris & Grey. Embedded into the audio file could have several inaudible commands triggering Apple’s Siri or Amazon’s Alexa to complete a task that the user did not instruct — such as, buying merchandise from the music performer on Amazon.

    “We wanted to see if we could make it even more stealthy,” said Nicholas Carlini, a fifth-year Ph.D. student in computer security at U.C. Berkeley and one of the paper’s authors.

    At the moment, Carlini said this is only an academic experiment, as it is only a matter of time before cybercriminals figure out this technology. “My assumption is that the malicious people already employ people to do what I do,” he added.

    The New York Times said Amazon “does not disclose specific security measure” to thwart a device from an ultrasonic attack, but the company has taken precautionary measures to protect users from unauthorized human use. Google told The New York Times that security development is ongoing and has developed features to mitigate undetectable audio commands.

    Both companies’ [Amazon and Google] assistants employ voice recognition technology to prevent devices from acting on certain commands unless they recognize the user’s voice.

    Apple said its smart speaker, HomePod, is designed to prevent commands from doing things like unlocking doors, and it noted that iPhones and iPads must be unlocked before Siri will act on commands that access sensitive data or open apps and websites, among other measures.

    Yet many people leave their smartphones unlocked, and, at least for now, voice recognition systems are notoriously easy to fool.

    There is already a history of smart devices being exploited for commercial gains through spoken commands,” said The New York Times.

    Last year, there were several examples of companies and even cartoons taking advantage of weaknesses in voice recognition systems, including Burger King’s Google Home commercial to South Park‘s episode with Alexa.

    While there are currently no American laws against broadcasting subliminal or ultrasonic messages to humans, let alone artificial intelligence systems on smartphones and smart speakers. The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) warns against the practice, calling it a “counter to the public interest,” and the Television Code of the National Association of Broadcasters bans “transmitting messages below the threshold of normal awareness.” However, The New York Times points out that “neither says anything about subliminal stimuli for smart devices.”

    Recently, the ultrasonic attack technology showed up in the hands of the Chinese. Researchers at Princeton University and China’s Zhejiang University conducted several experiments showing that inaudible commands can, in fact, trigger voice-recognition systems in an iPhone.

    “The technique, which the Chinese researchers called DolphinAttack, can instruct smart devices to visit malicious websites, initiate phone calls, take a picture or send text messages. While DolphinAttack has its limitations — the transmitter must be close to the receiving device — experts warned that more powerful ultrasonic systems were possible,” said The New York Times.

    DolphinAttack could inject covert voice commands at 7 state-of-the-art speech recognition systems (e.g., Siri, Alexa) to activate always-on system and achieve various attacks, which include activating Siri to initiate a FaceTime call on iPhone, activating Google Now to switch the phone to the airplane mode, and even manipulating the navigation system in an Audi automobile. (Source: guoming zhang

    DolphinAttack Demonstration Video 

    While the number of smart devices in consumers’ pockets and at their homes is on the rise, it is only a matter of time before the technology falls into the wrong hands, and unleashed against them. Imagine, cybercriminals accessing your Audi or Tesla via ultrasonic attacks against voice recognition technology on a smart device. Maybe these so-called smart devices are not smart after all, as the dangers of these devices are starting to be realized. Millennials will soon be panicking.

  • Why Global Growth Hit A Wall: China Credit Growth Continues To Slow

    Submitted by Gordon Johnson of The Vertical Research Group

    QUICK TAKE: In short, our thesis is that city-level and regional macroprudential tightening policies in China currently will render economic growth in 2Q18, but more importantly 2H18, dismal; we believe this will spread to emerging markets, rendering the “global coordinated growth” bulls out of sync with reality. This, we believe, in turn, will weigh on metals prices, pushing many of the commodity pundits (i.e., Jeffery Gundlach) to reassess their bullishness. As this happens, we expect  steel/bulk exports out of China to rise (as profitability domestically falls with weakening domestic demand) pushing global bulk commodities prices lower.

    Exhibit 1: China Total Credit Growth versus Bank Asset Growth, %Y/Y


    Source: Peoples’ Bank of China (PBOC), Vertical Group.

    Exhibit 2: It Appears Emerging Markets are no Longer “Feeling the China Love”


    Source: Bloomberg, Vertical Group.

    So how do things look at this juncture? Well, below we highlight the key takeaways from China’s April 2018 data dump. However, in short, looking at the below data in aggregate, we believe our thesis remains firmly intact; furthermore, in checks “on the ground” in China this week, we learned that the Consensus among domestic traders is that steel prices in China have “peaked” for the year as of this week.

    GROWTH INTERNALS. As detailed below, while Y/Y industrial production growth edged higher to +6.9% in April 2018 (from +6.8% in March 2018), the all-important Fixed Asset Investment metric in China hit lows not seen in nearly two decades (at +7.0% Y/Y for April 2018 vs. +7.5% Y/Y in March 2018), while retail sales also dipped lower in the month of April at +9.4% Y/Y (vs. +10.1% Y/Y in March 2018). At risk of stating the obvious, at the margin, this suggests to us that China’s key growth internals are indeed slowing.

    Exhibit 3: Growth Internals – China (FAI, Industrial Production, & Retail Sales)


    Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Vertical Group.

    CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY. Taking a closer look under the hood, we notice real estate floor area sales slowed incrementally in April 2018 up just +1.3% YTD (vs. +3.6% YTD Y/Y in March 2018), and fell a concerning -4.1% Y/Y for the month of April 2018.

    Exhibit 4: China Residential + Commercial + Office Space Sold


    Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Vertical Group.

    However, when looking to new starts, while growth did slow to +7.3% Y/Y in April 2018 from +9.7% Y/Y in March, this rate of progress remains comfortably above the +2.9% Y/Y growth seen in Feb. 2018 (although, with credit growth in China on the decline, we see this metric disappointing throughout the remainder of 2018).

    Exhibit 5: China Residential + Commercial + Office Construction Starts


    Source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Vertical Group.

    Total floor area under construction saw YTD Y/Y growth edge higher to +1.6% from +1.5% in March 2018. However, we feel this metric will move towards 0% by year end (floor area under construction typically follows sales growth; and sales growth is currently consolidating at an accelerated clip – Exhibit 4).

    Exhibit 6: China Residential + Commercial + Office Space Under Construction


    Source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Vertical Group.

    What is the culprit for this slowing? Well, as our readers know, in addition to weakening overall credit growth (Exhibit 1), city-level and regional macroprudential policies have tempered mortgage lending in the world’s second largest economy – this tends to bode ill for overall real estate activity.

    Exhibit 7: Household Loans, Y/Y%


    Source: PBoC, Bloomberg.

    More to the above, first tier cities are in a slow melt while lower tiers are growing at sustainable levels; so from the PBoC’s perspective, there’s really no real reason to shift policy either way yet; and if it comes, adjustment will much more likely be the removal of local lending restrictions than interest rate cuts.

    The third key signal is deficit spending, and especially infrastructure. You’ll see lots of announcements from the National Development and Reform Commission (“NDRC”) and spikes in credit drivers… not in bank or shadow-bank lending, but the bond markets. So how are the bond market fairing? Well, China government bond issuance saw growth slow to +23.0% Y/Y in April vs. +24.0% Y/Y in March, and China corporate bond issuance fell from -1.7% Y/Y to -3.9% Y/Y over the same timeframe.

    Exhibit 8: Chinese Bond Issuance, Y/Y%


    Source: ChinaBond, Bloomberg.

    What about Open-Belt-Open-Road (“OBOR”)? Well, here’s a look at infrastructure investment, where it seems China has really slowed things down (manufacturing and real estate are not fairing that well either).

    Exhibit 9: China Fixed Asset Investment, Y/Y%


    Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Vertical Group.

    OTHER INDICATORS. On the positive side, it seems construction activity did indeed pickup in April (albeit, Y/Y growth slowed from the records seen last April – April marks the peak of China’s construction season, so this data point could be a bit backward looking).

    Exhibit 10: China Construction Vehicle Sales, Y/Y%


    Source: Hong Kong Teng Yuan Co. Ltd., Vertical Group.

    What about the other data points?

    Exhibit 11: Evidence of Seasonality in China’s Manufacturing PMI Survey


    Source: China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, Vertical Group.

    Exhibit 12: Industrial Output Volumes, Y/Y% (cement lagging + steel leading = potential for steel price correction)


    Source: CEIC, Vertical Group.

    Exhibit 13: China Li Keqiang Index


    Note: Chinese Premier Li Keqiang once remarked to a U.S. diplomat that China’s GDP data was “man made”. To track growth he preferred to look at change in bank lending, rail freight, and electricity consumption. This ticker takes a weighted average of annual growth rates in outstanding bank loans CNLNTTLY Index DES (40%), electricity production CZINELEC  Index DES (40%), and rail freight volume CHTPFR1Y Index DES (20%). Electricity production is used  rather than electricity consumption as they are conceptually similar and a longer historical series exists for electricity  production. Source: CEIC, Vertical Group.

    Exhibit 14: Inflation Gauge – Consumer & Producer Price Indexes


    Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Bloomberg, Vertical Group.

    Exhibit 15: Average Price Change of New Residential Buildings, by Tiered-Cities, Y/Y%


    Source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Vertical Group.

    Exhibit 16: JPM Global PMI – just off Mar. ’18 five month low


    Source: JPM, Bloomberg Vertical Group.

    * * *

    CONCLUSION: China will likely continue to slow, yet it seems the PBoC has a good handle on its targeted slowdown, making the need to rush in with “bazooka” stimulus unnecessary right now (in our view, that is). Will it happen? Based on history, of course it will (as it always does). But are we there yet? We think not. Translation… more pain to come before Xi Jinping “rides to the rescue of bulk commodity bulls”, meaning as the summer slow-down sets in, steel/iron-ore prices likely have acute downside risk (this is not Consensus at the moment – see Jeffery Gundlach’s comments from the Sohn conference several weeks ago).

  • How Much Do You Need To Be "Wealthy" In America? Here Is The Magic Number

    The age old question of whether or not money can buy happiness seems to have once again be answered with a resounding yes, and we even have a number. And, predictably, the amount of money that the younger generation says it will will need to be happy has risen again.

    Bloomberg reports the results of an annual survey used to determine how much “wealth“ people feel they need to be happy. 

    Many Americans cite leading a stress-free life and having “peace of mind” as their personal definition of wealth. That doesn’t sound too money-centric on the face of it—until you consider that money, or specifically the lack of it, is a major source of stress.

    Americans don’t like to admit that assets can buy happiness—just 11 percent of those surveyed for the second annual Modern Wealth Index from Charles Schwab chose “having lots of money” as their definition of wealth. But while most respondents selected more high-minded concepts as their keys to contentment, they weren’t afraid to put a number on what they needed to get there.

    Aside from the fluff, the survey asked for specific dollar amounts, and the monetary targets that the younger generations seek to be “comfortable” have moved higher, up to $1.4MM from $1.2MM, while those hoping to be happy with their wealth, will need to have at least $2.4MM to their name:

    To be financially comfortable in America today requires an average of $1.4 million, up from $1.2 million a year ago, according to the survey. The net worth needed to be “wealthy”? That’s an average $2.4 million, the same as last year in the online survey of 1,000 Americans between age 21 and 75.

    To be sure, as with every survey about money, many respondents said that “money can’t buy happiness”, and instead survey participants gave warm and fuzzy answers to the question of what makes them feel “rich”:

    There were some heartening signs amid the numbers. While 18 percent defined wealth as being able to afford anything they desired, 17 percent said it was “loving relationships with family and friends.” That jibes with how Joe Duran, chief executive officer of money manager United Capital, said he likes to think of “wealth.” After building and selling his first company, “I realized that money is nothing more than fuel,” he said. “It is a resource that lets you have choices, but if you don’t think about what you are working for, you will die rich but not live rich.” 

    The survey asked people to choose which of the below statements came closest to their personal definition of wealth. When asked about what made respondents feel “wealthy” in their daily lives, the survey found that spending time with family was most commonly cited, at 62 percent overall. That was followed by what can be the most elusive of things, cited at about the same level across generations: “taking time for myself,” which came in at 55 percent. Hard to do either of those without some bank, though.

    Which, of course, is ironic, considering that money is required to do all the things list above like travel and live stress-free. You’re going to be hard pressed to find anyone who can “live stress free”, “afford anything they want” or “enjoy life’s experiences” without having the giant wallet needed to fund all these expensive plans. But still, the American dream seems to still be in tact, at least in the minds of younger generations:

    Millennials displayed some youthful optimism when it came to their financial future. Some 64 percent of twenty- and thirty-somethings believe they’ll be wealthy (the cash kind) at some point in their lives, compared with 22 percent of boomers. Maybe better financial habits will help that happen, since more millennials than boomers said they regularly rebalance their portfolio—49 percent compared with 43 percent, respectively. The same percentage of millennials and boomers, 24 percent, felt “very confident” about reaching financial goals.

    This is also ironic, as we just reported weeks ago that millenials with student debt have negative net worth for the first time ever. Recall that the Young Invincibles released an update to their report“The Financial Health of Young America: Measuring Generational Declines Between Baby Boomers & Millennials”, which included a cross-generational study of the financial well-being of Millennials today versus Baby Boomers when they were in their adolescence. The update covered the economic challenges facing millennials age 25 to 34 between 2013 and 2016.

    What it found was shocking: despite the fact that this has reportedly been the second longest economic expansion/central bank-induced channel of financial capital into speculation and financialization, the update showed how the millennial generation has transformed into the lost generation, as their financial security has eroded late in the business cycle.

    For the first time, young adults age 25 to 34 with college degrees and student loans have a median net wealth of negative $1,900, said the advocacy group.

    So while it may be true that you don’t need to be a billionaire in order to find happiness and/or freedom for yourself, getting past a certain point of savings and wealth is certainly paramount in achieving “happiness” – regardless of how you define it.

    As for most of today’s youth, stuck in a negative net worth prison, the goal to reaching the “magic number” between $1.4 and $2.4 million seems virtually unachievable.

  • John Whitehead: "It's Time For A Bracing Dose Of Reality, America"

    Authored by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    We labor today under the weight of countless tyrannies, large and small, carried out in the name of the national good by an elite class of government officials who are largely insulated from the ill effects of their actions, and inflicted on an overtaxed, overregulated, and underrepresented populace.

    Consider, for example, that federal and state governments now require – on penalty of a fine – that individuals apply for permission before they can grow exotic orchids, host elaborate dinner parties, gather friends in one’s home for Bible studies, give coffee to the homeless, let their kids manage a lemonade stand, keep chickens as pets, or braid someone’s hair, as ludicrous as that may seem.

    A current case before the Supreme Court, Niang v. Tomblinson, strikes at the heart of this bureaucratic exercise in absurdity that has pushed overregulation and overcriminalization to outrageous limits. This particular case is about whether one needs a government license in order to braid hair.

    Missouri, like many states across the country, has increasingly adopted as its governing style the authoritarian notion that the government knows best and therefore must control, regulate and dictate almost everything about the citizenry’s public, private and professional lives.

    In Missouri, anyone wanting to braid African-style hair and charge for it must first acquire a government license, which at a minimum requires the applicant to undertake at least 1500 hours of cosmetology classes costing tens of thousands of dollars. Tennessee has fined residents nearly $100,000 just for violating its laws against braiding hair without a government license.

    It’s not just hair braiding that has become grist for the overregulation mill.

    Almost every aspect of American life today – especially if it is work-related – is subject to this kind of heightened scrutiny and ham-fisted control, whether you’re talking about aspiring “bakers, braiders, casket makers, florists, veterinary masseuses, tour guides, taxi drivers, eyebrow threaders, teeth whiteners, and more.”

    For instance, whereas 70 years ago, one out of every 20 U.S. jobs required a state license, today, almost 1 in 3 American occupations requires a license.

    The problem of overregulation has become so bad that, as one analyst notes, “getting a license to style hair in Washington takes more instructional time than becoming an emergency medical technicianor a firefighter.”

    This is what happens when bureaucrats run the show, and the rule of law becomes little more than a cattle prod for forcing the citizenry to march in lockstep with the government.

    Overregulation is just the other side of the coin to overcriminalization, that phenomenon in which everything is rendered illegal and everyone becomes a lawbreaker.

    This is the mindset that tried to penalize a fisherman with 20 years’ jail time for throwing fish that were too small back into the water and subjected a 90-year-old man to arrest for violating an ordinance that prohibits feeding the homeless in public.

    It’s no coincidence that both of these incidents—the fishing debacle and the homeless feeding arrest—happened in Florida.

    Despite its pristine beaches and balmy temperatures, Florida is no less immune to the problems plaguing the rest of the nation in terms of overcriminalization, incarceration rates, bureaucracy, corruption, and police misconduct. 

    In fact, the Sunshine State has become a poster child for how a seemingly idyllic place can be transformed into a police state with very little effort. As such, it is representative of what is happening in every state across the nation, where a steady diet of bread and circuses has given rise to an oblivious, inactive citizenry content to be ruled over by an inflexible and highly bureaucratic regime.

    Just a few years back, in fact, Florida officials authorized police raids on barber shops in minority communities, resulting in barbers being handcuffed in front of customers, and their shops searched without warrants. All of this was purportedly done in an effort to make sure that the barbers’ licensing paperwork was up to snuff.

    As if criminalizing fishing, charity, parenting decisions, and haircuts wasn’t bad enough, you could also find yourself passing time in a Florida slammer for such inane activities as singing in a public place while wearing a swimsuit, breaking more than three dishes per day, farting in a public place after 6 pm on a Thursday, and skateboarding without a license.

    This transformation of the United States from being a beacon of freedom to a locked down nation illustrates perfectly what songwriter Joni Mitchell was referring to when she wailed, “They paved paradise and put up a parking lot.”

    Only in our case, sold on the idea that safety, security and material comforts are preferable to freedom, we’ve allowed the government to pave over the Constitution in order to erect a concentration camp. 

    The problem with these devil’s bargains, however, is that there is always a catch, always a price to pay for whatever it is we valued so highly as to barter away our most precious possessions.

    We’ve bartered away our right to self-governance, self-defense, privacy, autonomy and that most important right of all—the right to tell the government to “leave me the hell alone.”

    In exchange for the promise of safe streets, safe schools, blight-free neighborhoods, lower taxes, lower crime rates, and readily accessible technology, health care, water, food and power, we’ve opened the door to militarized police, government surveillance, asset forfeiture, school zero tolerance policies, license plate readers, red light cameras, SWAT team raids, health care mandates, overcriminalization, overregulation and government corruption.

    In the end, such bargains always turn sour.

    As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, this is what happens when the American people get duped, deceived, double-crossed, cheated, lied to, swindled and conned into believing that the government and its army of bureaucrats—the people we appointed to safeguard our freedoms—actually have our best interests at heart.

    Yet when all is said and done, who is really to blame when the wool gets pulled over your eyes: you, for believing the con man, or the con man for being true to his nature?

    It’s time for a bracing dose of reality, America.

    Wake up and take a good, hard look around you, and ask yourself if the gussied-up version of America being sold to you—crime free, worry free and devoid of responsibility—is really worth the ticket price: nothing less than your freedoms.

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 16th May 2018

  • Delhi Has The Worst Air Quality In The World

    World Health Organization report released on May 2 found that Delhi has the worst air quality in the world. India’s capital was found to have a heavy presence of PM10 particular matter – 292 micrograms per cubic meter.

    As Statista’s Niall McCarthy notes, the annual safe limit set by the WHO is 60.

    While 13 Indian cities are among the 20 most-polluted worldwide, the following infographic provides an overview of how Delhi compares to other major global cities…

    Infographic: Delhi Has The Worst Air Quality In The World  | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

  • What's Trump's Real Trade Target: China Or Europe?

    Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

    Do Trump’s endless trade volleys and sanctions have a clear target? Consider the possibility it’s the EU, not China.

    Out of the blue, and with open rebuke form Democrats and Republicans, Trump reversed sanctions on China.

    This was peculiar in and of itself, but his rationale raised more than a few eyebrows.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    All of a sudden. Trump is concerned about “too many jobs lost in China”!

    One can rationalize this is about Rotting Cherries, Spoiled Pork, and Car Inspections, but could it be there is more than meets the eye?

    Iran Sanctions

    Bloomberg reports Iran’s Door to the West Is Slamming Shut, and That Leaves China.

    China is “already the winner,’’ said Dina Esfandiary, a fellow at the Centre for Science and Security Studies at King’s College in London, and co-author of the forthcoming ‘Triple Axis: Iran’s Relations With Russia and China’.

    Turning East

    EU Disharmony

    CNBC says Trump’s Iran sanctions will aggravate the French-German discord on EU reforms.

    5,000 German Corporations Hit By Trump Policy

    One can rationalize this all away, but a translation from Spiegel Online underscores the key idea: Trump’s Policies Hit Nearly 5,000 German Companies.

    Sanctions on Europe. Not Iran

    Eurointelligence fills in some blanks.

    Over the last three days it gradually dawned on the Germans that Donald Trump’s sanctions against Iran are in reality sanctions against Europe, and Germany in particular. The combination of third-party sanctions and changes to US tax laws has led to a situation where a large number of German companies now have an overwhelming interest to shift their business to the US, according to Spiegel Online.

    FAZ notes that the helplessness of the German government is becoming increasingly evident, both economically and politically. The paper notes that even Angela Merkel is casting doubt on whether it is possible to maintain the Iran nuclear agreement after Trump’s decision.

    Goodbye Europe

    The cover of Der Spiegel this week this week, “Goodbye Europe” says it all.

    Politico reports Europe’s ultimate Trump strategy: Appeasement.

    Intent or Collateral Damage?

    China responded to Trump tariffs by inspecting fruit to the point it rotted, pork until it spoiled, and Ford autos in such a manner that it required disassembly. Trump changed tactics.

    It’s easy to make a case that the only thing Trump understands is force.

    It’s also possible Trump is totally clueless and he is ruled only by spur of the moment decisions.

    Finally, one can make a case that Trump’s true intent all along was to bust up EU solidarity and everything else is just a sideshow.

    It’s easy to make that case even though Occam’s Razor suggests the alternatives are more likely.

    Regardless, the EU’s roll over and play dead response to the sanctions is a sure loser for the EU and a sure winner for China.

    Ball in Play

    EU, the ball is in your court.

    Last week Merkel stated it’s time for “Europe to take its destiny into its own hands.”

    OK – Do it!

    Staring at the ball as it rolls over you does not win points.

  • Europe Is Seeking "Practical Solution" To Salvage Iran Deal

    Much to President Trump’s chagrin, The European Union’s top diplomat, Federica Mogherini, said on Tuesday that the bloc would seek avenues for protecting businesses operating in Iran – even as the US threatens to impose tighter sanctions on any company that dares to continue operating in Iran after the US has revived its economic sanctions.

    While it couldn’t provide any economic or legal guarantees to the Islamic Republic, Mogherini said they would find a way to keep badly needed investment flowing into Iran. A series of experts have been assigned to the issue, and they’re expected to propose a few options in the coming weeks.

    Mogherini

    Federica Mogherini

    “We are working on finding a practical solution,” Mogherini told a news conference.

    “We are talking about solutions to keep the deal alive,” she said, adding that measures would seek to allow Iran to keep exporting oil and for European banks to operate.

    The EU has already warned the US that it’s prepared to impose “counter-sanctions” if the US interferes with European firms who choose to maintain their business relationships in Iran, as President Trump threatened to do in a phone call with European leaders shortly before he announced the US’s withdrawal from the agreement, according to Reuters.

    Iranian President Hassan Rouhani surprised the other signatories of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action last week when he said Iran would continue to abide by the terms of the deal – for now, at least – and give the other signatories a chance to salvage it.

    Both Russia and China have expressed regret over the US’s decision. Both have vowed to maintain ties with Iran in accordance with the deal.

    Of course, Europe has an ulterior motive for safeguarding its relationship with Iran: Russia, Iran’s primary ally among the major world powers, remains the biggest supplier of energy to Europe, especially during winter.

    Though the US has extended a waiver for its steel and aluminum sanctions, growing trade tensions between the EU and the US are threatening to further erode their relationship.

  • Paul Craig Roberts: Is Putin's Strategy Finally Beginning To Work?

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

    I have explained Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Christian practice of turning the other cheek to Western provocations as a strategy to convey to Europe that Russia is reasonable but Washington is not and that Russia is not a threat to European interests and sovereignty but Washington is. By accommodating Israel and withdrawing from the multi-nation Iran nuclear-nonproliferation agreement, US President Donald Trump might have brought success to Putin’s strategy.

    Washington’s three main European vassal states, Britain, France, and Germany have objected to Trump’s unilateral action. Trump is of the opinion that the multi-nation agreement depends only on Washington. If Washington renounces the agreement, that is the end of the agreement. It doesn’t matter what the other parties to the agreement want. Consequently, Trump intends to reimpose the previous sanctions against doing business with Iran and to impose additional new sanctions. If Britain, France, and Germany continue with the business contracts that have been made with Iran, Washington will sanction its vassal states as well and prohibit activities of British, French, and German companies in the US. Clearly, Washington thinks that Europe’s profits in the US exceed what can be made in Iran and will fall in line with Washington’s decision, as the vassal states have done in the past.

    And they might. But this time there is a backlash. Whether it will go beyond strong words to a break with Washington remains to be seen. Trump’s neoconservative pro-Israel National Security Advisor John Bolton has ordered European companies to cancel their business deals in Iran. Trump’s ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell has ordered German companies to immediately wind down their business operations in Iran. The bullying of Europe and blatant US disregard of European interests and sovereignty has made Europe’s long vassalage suddenly all too apparent and uncomfortable.

    Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel, previously a loyal Washington puppet, said that Europe can no longer trust Washington and must “take its destiny into its own hands.” 

    European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said that Washington’s leadership had failed and it was time for the EU to take over the leadership role and to “replace the United States.” Various French, German, and British government ministers have echoed these sentiments.

    The cover story of the German news magazine Der Spiegel, “Goodbye Europe,” has Trump giving Europe the middle finger.  The magazine declares that it is “Time for Europe to Join the Resistance.”

    Although European politicians have been well paid for their vassalage, they might now be finding it an unworthy and uncomfortable burden.

    Whereas I respect the virtue of Putin’s refusal to reply to provocation with provocation, I have expressed concern that Putin’s easy acceptance of provocations will encourage more provocations that will increase in intensity until war or Russian surrender become the only options, whereas if the Russian government took a more aggressive position against the provocations, it would bring the danger and cost of the provocations home to the Europeans whose compliance with Washington enables the provocations. Now it seems that perhaps Trump himself has taught that lesson to the Europeans.

    Russia has spent several years helping the Syrian Army clear Syria of the terrorists that Washington sent to overthrow the Syrian government. However, despite the Russian/Syrian alliance, Israel continues illegal military attacks on Syria. These attacks could be stopped if Russia would provide Syria with the S-300 air defense system.

    Israel and the US do not want Russia to sell the S-300 air defense system to Syria, because Israel wants to continue to attack Syria and the US wants Syria to continue to be attacked. Otherwise, Washington would call Israel off.

    Several years ago before Washington sent its Islamist proxy troops to attack Syria, Russia agreed to sell Syria an advanced air defense system, but gave in to Washington and Israel and did not deliver the system. Now again in the wake of Netanyahu’s visit to Russia we hear from Putin’s aide Vladimir Kozhim that Russia is continuing to withhold modern air defenses from Syria.

    Perhaps Putin believes he has to do this in order not to give Washington an issue that could be used to pull Europe back in line with Washington’s policy of aggression. Nevertheless, for those who do not see it this way, it makes Russia again look weak and unwilling to defend an ally.

    If Putin believes that he will have any influence on Netanyahu in terms of selling peace agreements with Syria and Iran, the Russian government has no understanding of Israel’s intent or Washington’s 17 years of war in the Middle East.

    I hope Putin’s strategy works. If it doesn’t, he will have to change his stance toward provocations or they will lead to war.

  • The Revolving Door Continues: Tesla Loses Two More Executives

    The hits just keep on coming for Tesla. Amidst a single day period where a record number of headlines were packed into about 24 short hours for Tesla – including a Morgan Stanley downgrade, news that the company would again be shutting down production of its Model 3 toward the end of the month and a Model S crash and ensuing fatality in Switzerland – even more news broke toward the end of the day today when it was reported that (surprise) two more executives, Arch Padmanabhan, the product director for Tesla’s stationary storage unit, and Bob Rudd, from Solar City, are leaving the company.

    It’s starting to feel a little bit like the movie Groundhog Day with the executive departure headlines. Reuters has noted all of the 2018 departures so far in this article. These two Tesla Energy employees join the ranks of other employees who hit the road this year:

    The list of executives who have departed the company over the last few years has been running at a relatively steady clip that usually winds up chalking up a couple of names every month or so – that looks to be accelerating. Bloomberg reported on today’s departures:

    Tesla Inc.’s energy unit has lost two major executives as CEO Elon Musk promises to reorganize the electric-car maker’s management team, according to people familiar with the matter.

    Arch Padmanabhan, the product director for Tesla’s stationary storage unit, and Bob Rudd, a former SolarCity vice president who led North American commercial and utility sales, have both left the company, said the people, who asked not to be identified because they aren’t authorized to speak publicly. Tesla didn’t immediately comment on the departures. Padmanabhan said he’s working on a new venture and declined to elaborate. Rudd couldn’t be reached for comment.

    Not unlike Doug Field, one of the only four executives listed on the company’s proxy who has apparently taken a leave of absence, Padmanabhan as also mysteriously left to “work on a new venture”. But recently executive departures have been happening at an astonishing rate:

    Matthew Schwall, Tesla’s primary contact with U.S. regulators, left to join Waymo, the self-driving-car company started by Google. Jim Keller, head of the driver-assistance system Autopilot, left last month for Intel Corp. Two top financial executives left in March, and sales chief Jon McNeil defected to Lyft Inc. in February. Musk told employees in an email on Monday that he’s “flattening” Tesla’s management structure to improve communication.

    Analysts and critics of the company continue to harp on the fact that Tesla has a revolving door of executives, with some attributing it to a possible toxic tone at the top. Other guesses for all of the executive departures include the company simply not having any type of operational clue as to what it’s doing. This would certainly explain the Model 3 factory line shut down which was reported today just hours after after it was reported by Electrek that the company could be producing 500 cars per day this week.

    Reuters notes that two sources confirmed that the next stoppage on the general assembly line at the Fremont, California, plant was scheduled for May 26-31.

    The production-challenged electric vehicle maker previously warned of 10 days of temporary shutdowns this quarter as the company addresses manufacturing problems that have delayed volume production of the Model 3 sedan, which is seen as crucial to Tesla’s long-term profitability, Reuters adds.

    This follows the previous production halt on April 17th to make “on-the-fly fixes”, as well as a prior stoppage in February.  The April shutdown, combined with the upcoming one, would add up to the planned 10 days of stoppages.

    Tesla has been struggling to find solutions to manufacturing bottlenecks on the new assembly line that produces the Model 3, a sedan intended for volume production. An over-reliance on robots has complicated that task, Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk has acknowledged.

    Musk, Tesla’s billionaire founder, told employees it was “quite likely” the company would reach a rate of 500 Model 3s per day this week, or 3,500 a week, automotive news website Electrek reported on Tuesday, citing an internal email. Musk also told staff to alert him of “any specific bottlenecks” on the production line.

    While Musk has said the planned stoppages are intended to give the company time to perform upgrades that will help it reach a goal of building 6,000 vehicles per week by the end of June, the market is becoming increasingly skeptical, especially since in order to meet the production goal of 6,000 cars per week by the end of July, Musk said last month that all Model 3 production would begin working around the clock.

    This came after yesterday’s news of a horrific fire in Switzerland which killed a man.

    In the same week in which a Tesla Model S erupted in flames after a “horrific” crash in Ft. Lauderdale, fatally trapping the two teenagers who died inside, while a second Model S rammed a stopped Salt Lake City firetruck at 60mph, mercifully without any fatalities, the Swiss tio.ch reports that yet another Tesla burst into flames after crashing on the A2 highway near the town of Bellinzona, killing a 48-year-old German driver who was trapped inside.

    According to the Swiss publication, the driver, a 48-year-old German motorist from Baden-Wurtermberg, lost control of the vehicle a few meters after the Monte Ceneri tunnel, crashing into the central guardrail, an accident that was remarkably similar to an October 2017 crash in Austria, in which a Model S also burned down, however without any fatalities.

    The car then overturned and caught fire, fatally trapping the driver.

    At this point the rate with which negative Tesla new stories are hitting the wire is almost comical and difficult to keep up with. While the stock traded lower today again, closing near $280 per share, the company still has an insane $50 billion valuation despite its bonds trading for about $.88 on the dollar at last check.

    At some point, if the company stock price catches down to the reality of what has been taking place at the company, these bumps in the road from executive departures could be looked at as the golden days.

  • Why The Empire Never Sleeps: The Indispensable Nation Folly

    Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog,

    Like the case of Rome before it, the Empire is bankrupting America. The true fiscal cost is upwards of $1.o trillion per year (counting $200 billion for veterans and debt service for wars), but there is no way to pay for it.

    That’s because the 78-million strong Baby Boom is in the driver’s seat of American politics. It plainly will not permit the $3 trillion per year retirement and health care entitlement-driven Welfare State to be curtailed.

    The Trumpite/GOP has already sealed that deal by refusing to reform Social Security and Medicare and by proving utterly incapable of laying a glove politically on Obamacare/Medicaid. At the same time, boomers keep voting for the GOP’s anti-tax allergy, thereby refusing to tax themselves to close Washington’s yawning deficits.

    More importantly, the generation which marched on the Pentagon in 1968 against the insanity and  barbarism of LBJ’s Vietnam War have long since abandoned the cause of peace. So doing, boomers have acquiesced in the final ascendancy of the Warfare State, which grew like topsy once the US became the world’s sole superpower after the Soviet Union slithered off the pages of history in 1991.

    Yet there is a reason why the end of the 77-year world war which incepted with the “guns of August” in 1914 did not enable the world to resume the status quo ante of relative peace and prosperous global capitalism.

    To wit, the hoary ideology of American exceptionalism and the Indispensable Nation was also, ironically, liberated from the shackles of cold war realism when the iron curtain came tumbling down.

    Consequently, it burst into a quest for unadulterated global hegemony. In short order (under Bush the Elder and the Clintons) Washington morphed into the Imperial City, and became a beehive not only of militarism, but of an endless complex of think-tanks, NGO’s, advisories and consultancies, “law firms”, lobbies and racketeers.

    The unspeakable prosperity of Washington flows from that Imperial beehive. And it is the Indispensable Nation meme that provides the political adhesive that binds the Imperial City to the work of Empire and to provisioning the massive fiscal appetites of the Warfare State.

    Needless to say, Empire is a terrible thing because it is the health of the state and the profound enemy of capitalist prosperity and constitutional liberty.

    It thrives and metastasizes by abandoning the republican verities of non-intervention abroad and peaceful commerce with all the nations of the world in favor of the self-appointed role of global policeman. Rather than homeland defense, the policy of Empire is that of international busybody, military hegemon and brutal enforcer of Washington’s writs, sanctions, red lines and outlawed regimes.

    There is nothing more emblematic of that betrayal of republican non-interventionism than the sundry hot spots which dog the Empire today. These include the Ukraine/Crimea confrontation with Russia, the regime change fiasco in Syria, the US sponsored genocide in Yemen, the failed, bloody 17-year occupation of Afghanistan, the meddling of the US Seventh Fleet in the South China Sea, and, most especially, the swiftly intensifying contretemps in Iran.

    As to the latter, there is absolutely no reason for the Empire’s attack on Iran. The proverbial Martian, in fact, would be sorely perplexed about why Washington is marching toward war with its puritanical and authoritarian but relatively powerless religious rulers.

    After all, it hasn’t violated the nuke deal (JPAOC) by the lights of any credible authority—-or by even less than credible ones like the CIA. Nor by the same consensus of authorities has it even had a research program for nuclear weaponization since 2003.

    Likewise, its modest GDP of $43o billion is equal to just eight days of US output, thereby hardly constituting an industrial platform from which its theocratic rulers could plausibly menace America’s homeland.

    Nor could its tiny $14 billion defense budget—which amounts to just sevendays worth of DOD outlays—inflict any military harm on American citizens.

    In fact, Iran has no blue water navy that could effectively operate outside of the Persian Gulf; its longest range warplanes can barely get to Rome without refueling; and its array of mainly defensive medium and intermediate range missiles cannot strike most of NATO, to say nothing of the North American continent.

    The answer to the Martian’s question, of course, is that Iran is no threat whatsoever to the safety and security of the US homeland, but it has run badly afoul of the dictates of the American Empire.

    That is to say, it has presumed to have an independent foreign policy involving Washington proscribed alliances with the sovereign state of Syria, the leading political party of Lebanon (Hezbollah), the ruling authorities (and US puppets) in Baghdad and the reining power in the Yemen capital of Sana’a (the Houthis).

    These are all deemed by Washington to be sources of unsanctioned “regional instability” and Iran’s alliances with them have been capriciously labeled as acts of state sponsored terrorism.

    The same goes for Washington’s demarche against Iran’s modest array of short, medium and intermediate range ballistic missiles. These weapons are palpably instruments of self-defense, but Imperial Washington insists their purpose is aggression—–unlike the case of practically every other nation which offers its custom to American arms merchants.

    For example, Iran’s arch-rival across the Persian Gulf, Saudi Arabia, has more advanced NATO supplied ballistic missiles with even greater range (2,600 km range). So does Israel, Pakistan, India and a half-dozen other nations, which are either Washington allies or have been given a hall-pass in order to bolster US arms exports.

    In short, Washington’s escalating war on Iran is an exercise in global hegemony, not territorial self-defense. What the proverbial Martian is really asking, therefore, is how did the Empire come about?

    How did the historic notion of national defense morph into Washington’s arrogant claim that it constitutes the “Indispensable Nation” which stands as mankind’s bulwark against global disorder and chaos among nations?

    As indicated above, Iran is just the case de jure of the Indispensable Nation in action. Yet the other hot spots of the moment are no less exercises in hegemonic aggression.

    Thus, Washington started the Ukrainian confrontation by sponsoring, funding and recognizing the February 2014 coup that overthrew a Russia-friendly government with one that is militantly nationalistic and bitterly antagonistic to Russia. It re-opened deep wounds that date back to Stalin’s brutal rein in Ukraine and Ukrainian collusion with Hitler’s Wehrmacht on its way to Stalingrad and back.

    So doing, it triggered the fear-driven outbreak of Russian-speaking separatism in the Donbas and the 96% referendum in Crimea to formally re-affiliate with mother Russia (which originally purchased it from the Ottomans in 1783).

    Even a passing familiarity with Russian history and geography would remind that Ukraine and Crimea are Moscow’s business, not Washington’s.

    Even more hideous is the rhetorical provocations and Seventh Fleet maneuvers ordered by Washington with respect to China’s comical sand castle building in the South China Sea. Whatever they are doing on these man-made islands, it is not threatening to the security of America—nor is there any plausible reason to believe that it is a threat to global commerce, either.

    After all, it is the mercantilist economies of China and East Asian that would collapse almost instantly if it attempted to interrupt world trade. That is, any theoretical red military shoe would first fall on the Red Suzerains of Beijing themselves because it is the hard currency earnings from its export machine that keep the Red Ponzi from collapsing and the Chinese people enthrall to their communist overlords.

    Needless to say, none of these kinds of interventions were even imaginable in the sleepy town of Washington DC just 100-years ago. But it’s baleful evolution from the capital of an economically focused Republic to seat of power in a globally mobilized Empire ultimately sprung from the Indispensable Nation heresy.

    So we intend to delve into the historic roots of that conceit in a multi-part series because it not only guarantees unending calamities abroad, but also an eventual fiscal and financial horror show at home.

    Indeed, so long as Imperial Washington is stretched about the planet in its sundry self-appointed missions of stabilization, “peacekeeping”, punishment, attack and occupation, there is zero chance that America’s collapsing fiscal accounts can be salvaged.

    The Indispensable Nation folly thus hangs over the rotten edifice of Bubble Finance like, in fact, a modern day Sword of Damocles.

    But Empire is a corrosive disease of governance. It eventually metastasizes into imperial arrogance, over-reach and high-handedness. Ultimately, like at present, it falls prey to the rule of bellicose war-mongers and thugs.

    John Bolton and Mike Pompeo are living proof of that.

    For the moment, however, make no mistake: Trump’s withdrawing from the nuke deal and pending re-imposition of maximum sanctions is an act of war by any other name.

    Yes, the feinschmeckers of the foreign policy establishment consider economic sanctions to be some kind of benign instrument of enlightened diplomacy—the carrot that preempts resort to the stick. But that is just sanctimonious prattle.

    When you hound the deep water ports of the planet attempting to block Iran’s oil sales, which are its principal and vital source of foreign exchange, or cut-off access by its central bank to the global money clearance system known as SWIFT or pressure friend and foe alike to stop all investment and trade—that’s an act of aggression every bit as menacing and damaging as a cruise missile attack.

    Or at least it was once understood that way. Even as recently as 1960 the great Dwight Eisenhower (very) reluctantly agreed to lie about Gary Power’s U-2 plane when the Soviets shot it down and captured its CIA pilot alive.

    But Ike did so because he was old-fashioned enough to believe that even penetrating the air space of a foe without permission was an act of war—- and that he did not intend, the CIA’s surveillance program notwithstanding.

    Today, by contrast, Washington invades the economics space of foreign nations with alacrity. In fact, the US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC) proudly lists 30 different sanctions programs  including ones on Belarus, Burundi, Cuba, Congo, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Venezuela, Yemen and Zimbabwe—along with  the more visible programs against the alleged malefactors of Iran, Russia and North Korea.

    These, too, are the footprints of Empire, not measures of a homeland defense befitting a peace-seeking Republic. That would cost around $250 billion per year, and would rely on an already built and paid for triad nuclear capacity for deterrence, and a modest Navy and Air Force for protection of the nation’s shorelines and air space.

    The $500 billion excess in today’s Trump-bloated national security budget of $750 billion is the cost of Empire; it’s the crushing fiscal burden that flows from the Indispensable Nation folly and its calamitously wrong assumption that the planet would descend into chaos without the good offices of the American Empire.

    Needless to say, we do not believe that the planet is chaos-prone absent Washington’s ministrations. After all, the historic record from Vietnam through Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria and Iran suggests exactly the opposite.

    More pointedly, the Indispensable Nation meme originates not in the universal condition of mankind and the nation-states into which it has been partioned, but in the one-time, flukish and historically aberrant circumstances of the 20th century that gave raise to giant totalitarian states in Hitler’s Germany and Stalin’s Russia, and the resulting mass murder and oppressions which resulted there from.

    But as we will outline in greater detail in Part 2,  Stalinist Russia and Nazi Germany were not coded into the DNA of humanity—a horror always waiting to happen.

    To the contrary, they were effectively born and bred in April 1917 when the US entered what was then called the Great War. And it did so for absolutely no reason of homeland security or any principle consistent with the legitimate foreign policy of the American Republic.

    So you can put the blame for this monumental error squarely on Thomas Woodrow Wilson——-a megalomaniacal madman who was the very worst President in American history; and who took America into war for the worst possible reason—a vainglorious desire to have a big seat at the post-war peace table in order to remake the world as God had inspired him to redeem it.

    The truth, however, was that the European war posed not an iota of threat to the safety and security of the citizens of Lincoln NE, or Worcester MA or Sacramento CA. In that respect, Wilson’s putative defense of “freedom of the seas” and the rights of neutrals was an empty shibboleth; his call to make the world safe for democracy, a preposterous pipe dream.

    Indeed, the shattered world after the bloodiest war in human history was a world about which Wilson was blatantly ignorant. And remaking it was a task for which he was temperamentally unsuited—even as his infamous 14 points were a chimera so abstractly devoid of substance as to constitute mental play dough.

    Or, as his alter-ego and sycophant, Colonel House, put it: Intervention positioned Wilson to play “The noblest part that has ever come to the son of man”.  

    America thus plunged into Europe’s carnage, and forevermore shed its century-long Republican tradition of anti-militarism and non-intervention in the quarrels of the Old World. From that historically erroneous turn—there arose at length the Indispensable Nation Folly ,which we shall catalogue in the balance of this series.

    For now, suffice it to say that there was absolutely nothing noble that came of Wilson’s intervention.

    It led to a peace of vengeful victors, triumphant nationalists and avaricious imperialists—-when the war would have otherwise ended in a bedraggled peace of mutually exhausted bankrupts and discredited war parties on both sides.

    By so altering the course of history, Wilson’s war bankrupted Europe and midwifed 20th century totalitarianism in Russia and Germany.

    These developments, in turn, eventually led to the Great Depression, the Welfare State and Keynesian economics, World War II, the holocaust, the Cold War, the permanent Warfare State and its military-industrial complex.

    They also spawned Nixon’s 1971 destruction of sound money, Reagan’s failure to tame Big Government and Greenspan’s destructive cult of monetary central planning.

    So, too, flowed the Bush’s wars of intervention and occupation, their fatal blow to the failed states in the lands of Islam foolishly created by the imperialist map-makers at Versailles and the resulting endless waves of blowback and terrorism now afflicting the world.

    And not the least of the ills begotten in Wilson’s war is the modern rogue regime of central bank money printing, and the Bernanke-Yellen-Powell plague of bubble economics which never stops showering the 1% with the monumental windfalls from central bank enabled speculation.

    As to how all this transpired, stay tuned!

  • Brennan Was Feeding Obama Unverified Info From Steele Dossier, Contradicting 2017 Testimony

    Two former colleagues of ex-CIA Director John Brennan have contradicted his claim that the unverified “Steele Dossier” was not part of the US Intelligence Community Assessment (ICA) on Russian interference in the 2016 election, reports Paul Sperry of RealClear Investigations.

    Central to the controversy is a statement by recently retired National Security Agency Director Michael Rogers, who stated in a classified letter to Congress that the anti-Trump memos which made up the dossier did factor in to the IC assessment – which was reinforced in a CNN interview by James Clapper, former Director of National Intelligence who said that the assessment was based on “some of the substantive content of the dossier,” and that the IC was “able to corroborate” certain dossier allegations. 

    In a March 5, 2018, letter to House Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes, Adm. Rogers informed the committee that a two-page summary of the dossier — described as “the Christopher Steele information” — was “added” as an “appendix to the ICA draft,” and that consideration of that appendix was “part of the overall ICA review/approval process.”

    His skepticism of the dossier may explain why the NSA parted company with other intelligence agencies and cast doubt on one of its crucial conclusions: that Vladimir Putin personally ordered a cyberattack on Hillary Clinton’s campaign to help Donald Trump win the White House.RealClear Investigations

    What’s more, Brennan was feeding some of the dossier material to President Obama and passing it off as credible, reports Sperry.

    Brennan put some of the dossier material into the PDB [presidential daily briefing] for Obama and described it as coming from a ‘credible source,’ which is how they viewed Steele,” said the source familiar with the House investigation. “But they never corroborated his sources.” –RCI

    (Of note, some suspect Rogers warned Trump that he was being spied on shortly after the 2016 US election. You can read that analysis here.)

    Brennan testified in May 2017 to the House Intelligence Committee that the Steele Dossier was “not in any way used as the basis for the intelligence community’s assessment” of Russia’s involvement in the 2016 election – a claim he has repeated several times, including a February appearance on Meet the Press.

    Rogers said during testimony that while he was convinced that Russia wanted to harm Clinton politically, he wasn’t of the opinion that they wanted to help Trump, as his CIA and FBI counterparts claimed. The assessment “didn’t have the same level of sourcing and the same level of multiple sources,” Rogers said. 

    The dossier, which is made up of 16 opposition research-style memos on Trump underwritten by the Democratic National Committee and Clinton’s own campaign, is based mostly on uncorroborated third-hand sources. Still, the ICA has been viewed by much of the Washington establishment as the unimpeachable consensus of the U.S. intelligence community. Its conclusions that “Vladimir Putin ordered” the hacking and leaking of Clinton campaign emails “to help Trump’s chances of victory” have driven the “Russia collusion” narrative and subsequent investigations besieging the Trump presidency.RCI

    That said, the ICA did not in fact reflect the Intelligence Community’s concensus

    Clapper broke with tradition and decided not to put the assessment out to all 17 U.S. intelligence agencies for review. Instead, he limited input to a couple dozen chosen analysts from just three agencies — the CIA, NSA and FBI. Agencies with relevant expertise on Russia, such as the Department of Homeland Security, Defense Intelligence Agency and the State Department’s intelligence bureau, were excluded from the process. –RCI

    On other words, the assessment of Russia’s interference was shielded from government experts who might be able to poke holes in the (literal) conspiracy theory. The House Intelligence Committee found that the ICA did not appropriately describe the “quality and credibility of underlying sources,” and that it was “not independent of political considerations.” 

    Furthermore, the report is missing any dissenting views whatsoever, as would normally be included.

    “Traditionally, controversial intelligence community assessments like this include dissenting views and the views of an outside review group,” said Fred Fleitz, who Real Clear Investigations reports worked as a CIA analyst for 19 years and helped draft national intelligence estimates at Langley. “It also should have been thoroughly vetted with all relevant IC agencies,” he added. “Why were DHS and DIA excluded?

    Fleitz suggests that the Obama administration limited the number of players involved in the analysis to skew the results. He believes the process was “manipulated” to reach a “predetermined political conclusion” that the incoming Republican president was compromised by the Russians.

    “I’ve never viewed the ICA as credible,” the CIA veteran added.

    A source close to the House investigation said Brennan himself selected the CIA and FBI analysts who worked on the ICA, and that they included former FBI counterespionage chief Peter Strzok.

    “Strzok was the intermediary between Brennan and [former FBI Director James] Comey, and he was one of the authors of the ICA,” according to the source. -RCI

    Strzok, of course, was reassigned to another department within the FBI after anti-Trump and pro-Clinton text messages were uncovered by DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz. Strzok remains under investigation by the IG, while his FBI “lovebird” Lisa Page resigned (was fired) in early May. 

    Strzok spearheaded the FBI’s early investigation into Russian collusion with the Trump campaign in 2016 – until former FBI Director James Comey was fired, and his infamous “memos” suggesting obstruction kicked off special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation. 

    Brennan swears the dossier was not used “in any way” as a basis for the ICA – explaining that he only “heard snippets” from the press in the summer of 2016. 

    Brennan’s claims are impossible to believe,” Fleitz asserted.

    “Brennan was pushing the Trump collusion line in mid-2016 and claimed to start the FBI collusion investigation in August 2016,” he said. “It’s impossible to believe Brennan was pushing for this investigation without having read the dossier.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  • Iraq Gets A Modern Political System: Low Turnout, Surging Populism, Potential Chaos

    Authored by John Rubino via DollarCollapse.com,

    Remember when Iraqis were first able to vote in national elections back in the 2000s, and huge numbers braved terrorist threats to go to the polls and celebrated afterwards? Their enthusiasm contrasted sharply with US elections where turnout was low and the voters that did show up tended towards ambivalence.

    But fast forward a decade and Iraqis seem to have figured out that in the modern world of hyper-indebtedness and overpopulation no politician can keep their promises and life might therefore not get better after all. So why bother voting – and if you do vote why not swing for the fences with out-of-the mainstream candidates willing to take on the establishment? From today’s Wall Street Journal:

    Firebrand Cleric Moqtada al-Sadr Gains in Iraqi Elections

    MOSUL, Iraq—Iraqi voters appeared to deal a blow to Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi in this weekend’s election, giving surprisingly strong support to an unlikely coalition of communists and followers of populist cleric Moqtada al-Sadr in partial preliminary results.

    Mr. Sadr, a firebrand whose militias once fought openly with U.S. forces and were implicated in sectarian bloodshed, has since entered the political mainstream. His new alliance with Iraq’s communists did well in a contest in which many Iraqis stayed home and those who did vote said they wanted to shake up a political status quo known for corruption and bad governance.

    With preliminary results counted in 10 of Iraq’s 18 provinces, Mr. Sadr’s coalition came in first in four of them, including the country’s most populous city, Baghdad, and was near the top in all of them, according to preliminary results.

    Mr. Abadi’s coalition didn’t come first in any of the provinces for which results were released, suggesting his chances of re-election may be slim even after his government led the country to victory over Islamic State last year. Neither Mr. Abadi’s coalition, seen as being implicitly supported by the U.S., nor Iran-backed groups were as successful as Mr. Sadr.

    What does this mean for Iraq?

    Probably the same thing recent elections mean for Italy, where a coalition of left and right-wing populists just formed a government with – to put it mildly – unpredictable consequences. Or for the US where a populist government is tearing up treaties and throwing allies into confusion (see US threatens European companies with sanctions after Iran deal pull-out). Or for that matter Argentina, where an ostensibly rock-solid business friendly government has failed to stabilize the financial system and is now begging the IMF for help to avert a currency collapse.

    Political/financial turmoil is simply the new normal in a world where debt has been allowed to explode, leaving only unpalatable choices. Picture a family that has maxed out a series of credit cards, car loans, student loans and mortgages to the point that interest eats the income that used to go to gasoline, food, and private school tuition for the kids. Then imagine the dinner table conversation as everyone gets the news that their necessities are being cut to cover the costs of the parents’ previous bad decisions.

    Now expand that emotional atmosphere to entire countries and you have modern political life.

    This wasn’t inevitable. It’s the more-or-less direct result of the US decision to break the final link between the dollar – and by implication all the world’s major currencies — and gold in 1971.

    A society with a currency on this trajectory is absolutely guaranteed to descend into chaos eventually.

  • Baltimore Police Commissioner Resigns After Admitting He Did Not File Taxes For Years

    Less than a week after the Department of Justice charged Baltimore Police Commissioner Darryl De Sousa with failure to file federal and state income taxes for three consecutive years, Baltimore’s top cop resigned on Tuesday after being suspended last Friday with pay.

    Baltimore Police Commissioner Darryl De Sousa Resigns After Being Charged With Failing To File His Taxes. (Source: The Baltimore Sun)

    “Today I received the resignation of Darryl De Sousa as Commissioner of the Baltimore Police Department and have accepted it,” Baltimore Mayor Catherine E. Pugh said in a statement, reprinted below:

    “I want to reassure all Baltimoreans that this development in no way alters our strategic efforts to reduce crime by addressing its root causes in our most neglected neighborhoods. This broad-based, grassroots approach – underpinned by the utilization of new crime-fighting technology – is working and will continue to be effective as indicated by the downward trend in violence. The Baltimore Police command staff is fully committed to bringing about the reforms to the practices and culture of the department that we are implementing and which are vital to ensuring the trust and confidence of all our citizens.”

    “As mayor, I will not let up in pursuing my top priority of making our City safe and our neighborhoods worthy of the lives of all residents.”

    According to Jayne Miller, an investigative reporter for WBAL, the mayor’s office has already started a national search for a new police commissioner, while deputy commissioner, Gary Tuggle serves as Interim-Commissioner.

    De Sousa’s downward spiral started last Thursday when he was charged with three misdemeanor counts of failing to file income taxes. Federal investigators said he “willfully failed to file a federal tax return” for tax years 2013, 2014 and 2015, while he was employed with the Baltimore Police Department.

    In a statement on Twitter, De Sousa admitted to failing to file his federal and state taxes, but within the statement, he did add that his 2016 taxes were filed, and 2017 had an extension.

    “While there is no excuse for my failure to fulfill my obligations as a citizen and public official, my only explanation is that I failed to sufficiently prioritize my personal affairs,” he said.

    “Naturally, this is a source of embarrassment for me and I deeply regret any embarrassment it has caused the Police Department and the City of Baltimore. I accept full responsibility for this mistake and am committed to resolving this situation as quickly as possible.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Fraternal Order of Police Lodge 3 President Gene Ryan said in a statement, “The men and women of the Baltimore Police Department are aware of the resignation of Police Commissioner Darryl De Sousa today. We are anxious to put these events behind us and hope that Mayor Pugh can quickly find a suitable replacement. Our members deserve consistency in their leadership; however, as they are all highly trained professional law enforcement personnel, they will stay fully mission focused in the interim.”

    De Sousa became Baltimore’s top cop in January, after Mayor Pugh fired ex-Commissioner Kevin Davis, citing a surge of violent crime after the 2015 Baltimore Riots.

    “I’m impatient,” Pugh said at a news conference in January. “We need more violence reduction. We need the numbers to go down faster than they are.”

    CNN explains how Baltimore was transformed into one of the most dangerous cities in America:

    “Baltimore had 343 homicides in 2017, according to the city’s police department. Baltimore had a rate of 51.4 homicides per 100,000 residents in 2016, well above Chicago’s 28.07 homicides per 100,000 residents and New York City’s 3.9 per 100,000 residents.

    Baltimore was the site of riots in April 2015 after 25-year-old Freddie Gray died in police custody. The Justice Department, under President Barack Obama, later issued a report saying that black residents were subject to disproportionate rates of stops, searches and arrests.

    Last year, several police officers with the now-defunct Gun Trace Task Force were indicted on federal racketeering charges of robbing people, claiming fraudulent overtime and filing false affidavits. Two officers were convicted and six other officers pleaded guilty to federal charges.”

    Meanwhile we hope that Baltimore is successful in its search for a top cop replacement, although we realize that finding that rare public servant who believes in paying their fair share while protecting and upholding the law is not going to be an easy task.

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 15th May 2018

  • WHO Prepares For "Worst Case" As Congo Ebola Outbreak Spreads

    In the week since we first noted the new outbreak of Ebola in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the number of cases has risen by 50%, and The World Health Organization has now said it is preparing for “the worst case scenario.”

    The WHO has tallied 32 suspected or confirmed cases in the northwestern area of Bikoro, on the shores of Lake Tumbathe near the border with the Republic of Congo, including 18 deaths, between April 4 and May 9.

    The outbreak, declared by the DRC health ministry on Tuesday, is the DRC’s ninth known outbreak of Ebola since 1976, when the deadly viral disease was first identified in then-Zaire by a Belgian-led team.

    Scientists are greatly concerned that this outbreak in the remote Bikoro region will travel 175 miles to the city of Mbandaka – the capital of Equateur province and home to around 1.2 million residents.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    What’s worrisome is that the most recent WHO update says that there are two probably cases at Wangata – which is very close to Mbandaka.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Peter Salma, head of emergency response at the World Health Organization (WHO) said last week: “If we see a town of that size infected with Ebola, then we are going to have a major urban outbreak,” adding “We are very concerned, and we are planning for all scenarios, including the worst-case scenario.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The WHO is planning to send up to 40 specialists to the affected area over the next week or so, while Salma adds that the UN hopes to have a mobile lab up and running this weekend, similar to the one set up by the WHO. 

    The WHO and World Food Programme are also working to set up an ‘air-bridge’ to help bring in supplies, however, only helicopters can be used until an airfield is cleared to allow larger planes to land, Mr Salama added.

    The health body has released £738,000 ($1m) from its Contingency Fund for Emergencies to support response activities for the next three months. –Daily Mail

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    This marks the country’s ninth epidemic since the ebola virus was identified in 1976. When a small outbreak hit the DRC last year, eight people were infected and four died. In 2014, 66 were infected out of which 49 died – a 74% fatality rate. In the 2002-2003 outbreak, 90% of those infected died. That said, on average the disease kills around half of those who contract it. 

    Ebola, a haemorrhagic fever, killed at least 11,000 across the world after it decimated West Africa and spread rapidly over the space of two years.

    The pandemic was officially declared over back in January 2016, when Liberia was announced to be Ebola-free by the WHO.

    The country, rocked by back-to-back civil wars that ended in 2003, was hit the hardest by the fever, with 40 per cent of the deaths having occurred there.

    Sierra Leone reported the highest number of Ebola cases, with nearly of all those infected having been residents of the nation. -Daily Mail

    Experts say the DRC’s vast, remote terrain provides an advantage, as outbreaks often remain localized and easy to isolate. Bikoro, however, is not far from the Congo river – an essential waterway used for transport and commerce. Downstream lies Kinshasa and Brazzaville – the DRC’s capital. The two cities are home to a combined 12 million people.

    As such, neighboring countries are on high alert. Officials in Nigeria, Guinea and Gambia have incresaed screening measures along their airports and borders, measures which helped contain the virus during the West African epidemic that began in 2013. 

    Angola, Zambia, Tanzania, Uganda, South Sudan, Central African Republic, Rwanda, Burundi and the Republic of Congo – which border the DRC – have all been alerted.

    While Kenya, which does not border the country, has issued warnings over the possible spread of Ebola.

    Thermal guns to detect anyone with a fever have been put in place along its border with Uganda and at the Jomo Kenyatta International Airport. 

    Concerned health officials in Nigeria, which also does not border the DRC, have put similar measures in place to keep its population safe. -Daily Mail

    Scientists believe Ebola is most often passed to humans by fruit bats, however porcupines, gorillas, antelope and chimpanzees could also be carriers. It is transmitted between humans through blood, secretions and other bodily fluids (and surfaces) of those infected. 

    There is currently no “proven” treatment for Ebola, however dozens of experimental drugs exist – including a vaccine called rVSV-ZEBOV, which has reportedly protected nearly 6,000 people. 

  • US, Sweden, And Finland Boost Military Cooperation To Form New Alliance

    Authored by Alex Gorka via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    The US, Swedish, and Finnish defense ministers signed a trilateral Statement of Intent (SOI) to expand defense cooperation on all fronts. The signing ceremony took place in Washington on May 8. In 2016, the two Scandinavian nations finalized separate defense SOIs with America. Now they have signed a joint document to unify those previous agreements and enhance their interoperability.

    The Scandinavian visitors claimed this was just a starting point for a more mature relationship. The agreement emphasizes the countries’ combined joint exercises and streamlines the procedures that have been established to manage them.

    Other issues covered by the SOI include regular trilateral meetings at all levels, the exchange of information (including about weapons systems), increased practical interaction, cooperation in multinational operations, improved communications, and the promotion of the EU-NATO strategic partnership. The latter issue will transform the Scandinavians into a connecting link that will eliminate the chance of any European deterrent that could operate with any real independence from its North American “big brother.”  Washington wants to make sure that the PESCO agreement will not protect Europe’s defense industry from US companies.

    Sweden hosted the Aurora military exercise in September 2017, the largest such event on its soil. The US supplied most of the visiting troops. The American military has also taken part in a number of drills in Finland recently. That country will host a large-scale NATO exercise as early as 2020 or 2021. The US has already been invited. The militarization of the Scandinavian Peninsula is moving full speed ahead.

    The recently signed SOI actually transforms the bilateral agreements into enhanced trilateral cooperation.  For Stockholm and Helsinki, joining NATO is not an option for domestic political reasons. At least not for now. Instead, a new US-led defense alliance has emerged. 

    The increased tempo of exercises anticipates a larger US presence. It has far-reaching implications. With American military personnel rotating in and out of Sweden and Finland, any offensive action against one of those states would officially be an attack on a NATO member.  It would trigger a response as envisaged by Article 5 of the Washington Treaty. Russia considers any American military presence there as provocative. The US is not a Scandinavian country. If an incident took place that resulted in a clash between Russian and US forces, the two Scandinavian nations would be pulled against their will into a conflict they may have nothing to do with. The American soldiers on their soil will never be under the control of their national commands. More US presence means less sovereignty and more risk.

    Actually, since they are EU members they don’t even need Article 5, because Article 42.7 of the EU treaty also contains a binding mutual-assistance clause. France invoked it after the 2015 Paris terror attacks.

    Last year Sweden and Finland joined the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF).  All other participants in the nine-nation formation are NATO members. It means that in an emergency their armed forces will operate under NATO command, becoming parties to a conflict they could avoid if they were really neutral.   The two also cooperate with Washington through the Northern Group (NG), which consists of 12 countries, although Sweden and Finland are the only non-NATO participants. That organization holds its own dialog with the US. Another venue is the five-nation Nordic Countries group, that includes these two non-aligned members.

    In reality, Sweden and Finland have already joined NATO through other groups and agreements.   They did so informally, avoiding referendums and the relevant parliamentary procedures at home. This should be viewed as part of a broader picture. In early April, the first-ever US-Baltic States summit took place in Washington. It was an unprecedented event that somehow was kept out of the media spotlight. 

    The leaders of NATO’s “frontline states” called for a permanent US military presence in the region. They want that to be much larger than just American participation in multinational battalions. They are asking for a permanent presence on a much wider scale.  Washington, which already has forces deployed in Norway and Poland, is considering rotating American troops through the Baltic nations as well. Poland and the Baltic states are a focus of NATO’S bellicose preparations. One might as well forget about the 1997 Russia-NATO Founding Act (1997), which states that no substantial forces should be deployed in the proximity of the borders. That document has already been breached by NATO.

    The US guests have provided advice on how to promote American influence (they call it “democracy”) in Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine, the members of a newly formed anti-Russian alliance. and it’s not just the defense sector. Last year, Lithuania began importing liquefied natural gas (LNG) from America. Poland has also built an LNG terminal to expand the shipments of American gas to Europe, which compete with Russia’s energy supplies.

    The withdrawal from the Iran deal is not the only time a US position on an issue has been opposed by the leading European nations. There are many more points of disagreement. Old Europe is gradually creating an independent deterrent.  A rift between the EU and the US is deepening. But as one can see, Washington is building another pro-American alliance on the continent. It does not mean it will replace the North Atlantic alliance. Certainly not. On the contrary, it will strengthen the US position in the bloc.

    But aside from NATO, Washington also leads an informal alliance of “frontline states” that are intimidated by a nonexistent threat. The idea of the Russia bogeyman is being exploited by the US in order to reach its foreign-policy goals. Northern Europe is being turned into a hornet’s nest, with its good-neighbor policy gradually being replaced with confrontation that benefits the US but makes the region less secure. 

  • MH370 Solved? Experts Call It Suicide And "Premeditated Mass Murder" By Pilot

    While there has been no official government explanation to the MH370 flight mystery that dominated the news for months after it occurred, experts on Australia’s 60 Minutes have put together what seems to be the most sensible re-creation of events that could explain the mystery of the missing plane.

    Stunningly, experts agree that flight MH370 may have come down as an intentional act of mass suicide. The report was picked up by the Washington Post on Monday, who explained that “the plane’s 2014 disappearance and apparent crash were a suicide by the 53-year-old [pilot] Zaharie — and a premeditated act of mass murder.”

    “The thing that gets discussed the most is that at the point where the pilot turned the transponder off, that he depressurized the airplane, which would disable the passengers,” said Larry Vance, a veteran aircraft investigator from Canada. “He was killing himself. Unfortunately, he was killing everyone else onboard. And he did it deliberately.”

    Two of the most prominent mysteries of the flight were the lack of communication from the plane and a mysterious left turn that had yet to be explained. As the Washington Post describes, the plane’s communication was likely turned off on purpose…

    But the “60 Minutes” experts tried to answer one of the biggest questions surrounding the flight: How could a modern aircraft tracked by radar and satellites simply disappear?

    Because, they say, Zaharie wanted it to. And the veteran pilot, who had nearly 20,000 hours of flight experience and had built a flight simulator in his home, knew exactly how to do it.

    For example, at one point, he flew near the border of Malaysia and Thailand, crisscrossing into the airspace of both, Hardy said. But neither country was likely to see the plane as a threat because it was on the edge of their airspace.

    …and the “unexplained” left turn could have been the pilot looking to take one last glance of his hometown:

    Zaharie’s suspected suicide might explain an oddity about the plane’s final flight path: that unexpected turn to the left.

    “Captain Zaharie dipped his wing to see Penang, his home town,” Simon Hardy, a Boeing 777 senior pilot and instructor, said on “60 Minutes.”

    “If you look very carefully, you can see it’s actually a turn to the left, and then start a long turn to the right. And then [he does] another left turn. So I spent a long time thinking about what this could be, what technical reason is there for this, and, after two months, three months thinking about this, I finally got the answer: Someone was looking out the window.”

    “It might be a long, emotional goodbye,” Hardy added. “Or a short, emotional goodbye to his home town.”

    As for the silence on board, experts believe that the pilot depressurized the cabin on purpose, knocking everybody on board unconscious (who was not wearing an oxygen mask, which it is assumed the pilot would have been wearing). As the report put it, “that would explain the silence from the plane as it veered wildly off course: no mayday from the craft’s radio, no final goodbye texts, no attempted emergency calls that failed to connect.”

    The entire 60 Minutes piece can be viewed here.

    If this re-creation of events is accurate, the explanation for MH370 bears a striking resemblance to Germanwings Flight 9525, which crashed in 2015 as a result of the co-pilot deliberately bringing the plane down. French prosecutors noted that the co-pilot had locked the pilot out of the cockpit and deliberately crashed the plane just days after the incident took place in March 2015. The incident spawned outcries for better mental health screening and requirements for pilots:

    Aviation agencies around the world should draw up new rules requiring medical workers to warn authorities when a pilot’s mental health could threaten public safety, French investigators recommended Sunday after a yearlong probe into the Germanwings plane crash.

    The French investigation found that Germanwings co-pilot Andreas Lubitz, who had been treated for depression in the past, had consulted with dozens of doctors in the weeks before he deliberately crashed a jet into the French Alps on March 24, 2015, killing all 150 people on board.

    Again, this re-creation of MH370’s events were put together by aviation experts and not by any governmental agency, but the postulations seem to be one of the only plausible stories that, frankly, makes any sense. 

  • The "Vollgeld Initiative" – Switzerland's 'Once-In-A-Lifetime' Chance To Save The World

    Authored by Peter Koenig vie The Saker Blog,

    It’s called “Vollgeld Initiative” – in German, meaning more or less “Referendum for Sovereign Money”. What is “Sovereign Money”? – Its money produced only by the Central Bank, by the “Sovereign”, the government, represented by its central bank. Money created in accordance with the needs of the economy, as contrasted to the profit and greed motives of the banking oligarchy – what it is today; money creation at will, by private banking.

    The people of Switzerland are called to vote on 10 June 2018 whether they want to stop the unlimited, unrestrained money-making by the Swiss private banking system, and to return to the “olden days”, when money was made and controlled only by the Central Bank; and this not just in Switzerland, but in most countries around the globe. Switzerland is one of the few sovereign countries within the OECD, and possibly worldwide, that has the Right of Referendum written into her Constitution.

    With 100,000 valid signatures anybody can raise a referendum to amend or abolish a law, or to create a new one. – This is a huge privilege to Right a Wrong.

    Most Swiss and probably most westerners in general don’t even know that the loan or mortgage they get from their bank is no longer backed by the bank’s capital and deposits. How could they? Instead of being told the truth, they are being lied to, even by their own party and politicians. And that in the case of Switzerland, by nobody less than the CEO of the UBS, the largest Swiss bank. Just watch this short video (in German and Italian – 2 min)

    Lying is a felony, hence Mr. Sergio Ermotti, CEO of UBS, should be prosecuted. Unlikely to happen, though. What Mr. Ermotti in essence says in this interview is that loans are backed by deposits. This is directly contradicted by the Swiss National Bank and the German Bundesbank (Central Bank). They say that “today about 90% of all the money is accounting money, created by loans the banks make to enterprises and private citizens. Pretending that banks use deposits to make loans, is not true.” The latter part was specifically expressed by the German Bundesbank. – So, how come Mr. Ermotti, CEO of UBS, wouldn’t know that?

    Switzerland, fully embedded in the globalized western banking system, absorbed by it, has a chance to tell the world that the only way to control and get on top of the cycle of financial and economic crises is to reign-in the bottom-less money production – the debt-interest-profit driven banking system, a Ponzi scheme that cannot survive (financing debt with more debt); the abhorrent uncontrollable debt-profit cycle that has brought misery to humanity – just look at Greece. With money production controlled by the respective central banks, for example, in France and in Germany, the senseless indebting of Greece by German and French banks would not have been possible, in which case the troika’s (ECB, European Commission and IMF) so-called bail-outs, or ‘rescue packages’, would not have been possible either. Hence no doubling of Greece’s debt – and Greece would be well on her way to recovery.

    The point is that these too-big-to-fail banks have become also too big to control, and of course they do not want to be controlled. They have the (political) power to shed off any control. They want to continue creating debt, lending money not for economic development, but for profit of their shareholders. Banking for development has stopped a long time ago. The only banking for development is public banking, and that is almost non-existent – so far – in the west; except for North Dakota and soon New Jersey – and a number of other US States are considering public banking as a means of bringing back the true sense of banking – i.e. for economic development. But with the current FED-Wall Street bulldozer’s onslaught on the world, they are fighting against windmills – but even windmills are fallible.

    By and large, in the west it’s corporate banking for profit. And thanks to the public’s ignorance and disinterest, deregulation took place behind our backs.

    Did you know for example, that to become a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO), a nation has to deregulate its banks – to put them on a platter at disposal of the globalized banking sharks? – Probably you didn’t. Such decisions are never publicized.

    Again, the Swiss with a Yes vote on 10 June could change this for themselves and send a signal to the rest of the world – suggesting to take back their financial, economic and monetary sovereignty – cutting the link to globalized usury banking that enslaves the poor in favor of the rich. Literally.

    Will Switzerland seize this unique opportunity to broadcast this powerful message to the (western) world? Saying in the clearest voice possible – enough is enough, we are going back to regulating our banking system, through ‘new-old’ legislation and through the only institution that really has the Constitutional power to create money – the Swiss National Bank?

    The Swiss, an enormous influence in international banking – good or bad – could become a trail blazer for a new economic model, to demonstrate how ell well an economy can run without following the global trend of unlimited money supply – which serves only the banks by indebting the nations and the people. They could put a halt to the seemingly out-of-control economic rollercoaster that brings only misery to people, unemployment, broken homes and businesses, decimated social safety nets, pensions health plans — they, the Swiss could put an end to it and become an economically and financially independent nation with a healthy economy for the wellbeing of the people – not of the banks.

    Will they? Will they grasp this once in a lifetime opportunity to break loose from the banking stranglehold?

    The Swiss people are the most indebted of the G20, with 127.5% of private debt as compared to GDP in September 2017. The trend is on the rise. The United States, where deregulation started in the 1990s under President Clinton before it became ‘globalized’, was number seven with 78.5% in September 2017. – According to an OECD 2015 report, mortgages account for 120% of GDP, by far the largest proportion of all OECD countries. – Do the Swiss know that? – Some probably do, but the majority most likely does not. Ever-so-often the Swiss National Bank (Central Bank) issues a routine warning about private and particular mortgage debt – as it is an ever-raising risk for highly indebted families. An economic crisis, loss of a job – and a family fails to meet mortgage payments – bingo, foreclosure. The same as in 2008, 2009 and going on.

    Well, do you know that in Switzerland first mortgages do not have to be amortized? In fact, banks encourage you not to repay your mortgage, but just keep paying interest. Many mortgages are passed on with the related real estate from generation to generation. So, you never really own your house. The bank does. And the bank earns the money on your house, as well as calls the final shots on what is to happen with your real property, in case it is being sold.

    “Free money” – as it could also be called, is money made indiscriminately without backing. It has many negative effects – the risk factor, as mentioned before – and the bubble effect on the housing market which in turn increases the risk for houseowners, because sooner or later bubbles burst. The only winners are the banks.

    Why can the banks just make mortgage loans without requesting amortization? – Because they are afloat with money. Because, of course, they just make money with loans – the 90% which are not central bank made money. And the more loans they have outstanding, the more interest they earn. They earn money for doing absolutely nothing. For a mouse-click. Interest accumulates on its own. And debt is today’s foremost tool to enslave people, nations, entire continents.

    This is what the Swiss could change by accepting this referendum, by Voting YES to Vollgeld. It would refrain banks from creating money and return the responsibility to the central bank, where it is to be located according to the Swiss Constitution. It would force banks to be more prudent in issuing mortgages and personal debt – it would provide for a more stable economy and for a financially less vulnerable personal life. It would gradually take some air out of the real estate bubble – a healthy feature for any society.

    Again, are the Swiss going to vote for what is best for them? – Probably not. – But why not? – Because they are subjected to an enormous anti “Sovereign Money” campaign by the banking and finance sector, by the ‘built-in’ lobby. Yes, built-in, because in Switzerland Parliamentarians have the right to represent as many corporations, banking and otherwise, in their Boards of Directors, as they please. Yes – this is another special feature of Switzerland, also unique among OECD countries. – How many Swiss are aware of this?

    Is it therefore a surprise that the Swiss are being utterly brainwashed to vote against their own interest? – As they have done so often in the past – and frequently to the utter surprise of neighboring countries.

    In addition – and this is where another feature of the Swiss Un-Democracy enters: The Swiss Federal Council, the Swiss Executive, takes for itself the privilege and right – I have no clue from where, it is nowhere written in the Constitution – to issue sort of an edict before every national vote or referendum – “advising” the people how they should vote. With a public that oozes of comfort, where consistently less than 50% go to the polls, largely because of disinterest, such a proclamation has a huge impact.

    In this case, the Swiss Government, its Executive, has already and already for a while repeatedly “advised” its populace to vote ‘no’ to the Vollgeld Initiative. And surprisingly every major party goes along with it, including the socialists and other left-leaning parties. Either they are brainwashed to the core by propaganda repeated at nauseam, indoctrinating the people how bad accepting the “Vollgeld Initiative” would be. How bad can be owning your “Sovereign Money”? – Can you imagine? – How much lie must go into such fake marketing?

    Or could it be that the Swiss are no longer ruled by Bern, nor has the Swiss Central Bank much to say about Swiss monetary policy, but they may be ruled by an international and globalized banking cartel that puts so much pressure on the Swiss government, that it could almost be interpreted as blackmail? – Why otherwise, would intelligent people advise and vote against their own and proper interests?

    *  *  *

    My dear Swiss compatriots, this is the chance of your lifetime. Do yourself a favor by voting YES to the “Vollgeld Initiative”. Not only will you do yourself and the Swiss economy a favor, by bringing the latter back to sovereign control, you would most certainly make world-headlines and, who knows, inspire the peoples of other countries, who are sick and tired of their enslavement by banks, to request that their Central Banks alone can make money – in the amount that corresponds to the needs of their economies – no longer according to the profit-and-greed requirements of the globalized banking oligarchy.

  • Used Needles Littering San Francisco Streets As Heroin Crisis Grips NorCal

    San Francisco residents are complaining about a record number of used and discarded syringes littering the streets, as a growing heroin epidemic grips Northern California. 

    The city distributes nearly 5 million needles each year through various programs aimed at reducing HIV and other health risks for drug users who might otherwise share needles. 

    The city distributes an estimated 400,000 syringes each month through various programs aimed at reducing HIV and other health risks for drug users. About 246,000 syringes are discarded through the city’s 13 syringe access and disposal sites. But thousands of the others end up on streets, in parks and other public areas… –AP

    While syringes discarded in public areas have become a nationwide problem amid a growing opium crisis, the problem in population-dense San Francisco (about 50 square miles) is much more noticeable given the city’s growing homeless population. Last year there were 9,500 requests by residents for needle pick-ups by the city. So far this year, there have been 3,700 requests. 

    Despite the needles strewn around the city, San Francisco officials have no plans to change their needle program.

    “Research shows that reducing access to clean syringes increases disease and does not improve the problem of needle litter,” said Barbara Garcia, director of the Department of Public Health.

    In response to the problem, Mayor Mark Farrell has hired 10 workers to go around the city picking up needles. 

    Meanwhile to the north, the coastal town of Eureka has been hit hard by the heroin epidemic which has spread throughout California’s rural north. 

    While the state as a whole has one of the lowest overall opioid-related death rates in the country, a sharp rise in heroin use across the rural north in recent years has raised alarms. In Humboldt County, the opioid death rate is five times higher than the state average, rivaling the rates of states like Maine and Vermont that have received far more national attention. –NY Times

    Eureka, with its sizeable homeless population, lack of affordable housing and a “changing, weakened economy that relies heavily on tourism” has been hit particularly hard. 

    Intravenous drug use has been a persistent menace across rural California for decades, but longtime drug users who once sought methamphetamine — which is also often injected — are increasingly looking to score heroin or opioid pills instead. An astonishingly high rate of opioid prescription in Humboldt County has bred addiction, officials said, and the craving is increasingly sated by a growing market for heroin. –NYT

    I’ve lost so many people to this,” said 46-year-old Stacy Cobine, a chronically homeless woman who has struggled with drug abuse.

    While Meth is still the drug of choice in Humboldt, Chief Deputy Coroner at the County Sheriff’s Department, Ernie Stewart, says he is certain that the county’s heroin-related overdoses are “way underreported,” and that meth and heroin abuse is affecting every type of person locally – not just the homeless. 

    And with such heavy use of opioids comes the trash…

    With the sharp increases in use and overdoses, syringe litter has become a significant flash point for the town’s middle-class residents, particularly because tourism is so important for Eureka and the surrounding region. The town’s homeless have borne the brunt of the blame and frustration. Many Eurekans described various shocking experiences, including witnessing injections on public streets. They worry that discarded syringes could threaten children and tourists playing in the area’s parks. –NYT

    Like San Francisco, Humboldt distributes clean needles to drug users through the Humboldt Area Center for Harm Reduction. Many residents blame the organization, founded in 2014 to combat the spread of hepatitis C, for the proliferation of needle litter. The exchange has given out close to one million clean syringes since 2017, while founder Brandie Wilson says her group gets around 94% of the used needles back. 

    “Our Hep C and mental health and drug use and homeless and opioid use issues, all of those are so intertwined with being rural, and with a culture of silence,” she said. “No matter where I looked, there was no help. There was no help.

    Another factor which many point to is the break-up of a major homeless encampment by Humboldt officials. 

    The needle litter problem intensified two years ago when the town removed a homeless encampment along the Palco Marsh where somewhere between 250 and 400 homeless people had been sleeping.

    City officials and health service workers had encouraged the town’s large homeless population for years to go there. The tent city, which was colloquially called Devil’s Playground, provided a place to sleep and to linger during the day, but it also saw severely unsanitary health conditions and, at times, violence. In 2016, the town decided to clear the camp to install a bike path along the water, and did not allow a new camp anywhere else. –NYT

    And while Humboldt County does what it can, many are pointing a finger at the state of California for not taking enough action.

    “The state is failing miserably, and you can quote me on that,” said Mr. Stewart, the deputy coroner. “The state is failing miserably across the board. They are not putting enough funding and resources toward rehabilitation.”

    Mike McGuire, who represents several Northern California counties including Humboldt in the State Senate, said that government leaders needed to be more proactive about expanding resources in rural parts of the state. He said rural Californians are “desperate” for more assistance.

    “Humboldt County is just a few hours up Highway 101,” he said, “but as an individual travels further north on the highway, it’s like you take a step back in time. We need to step up to the plate and provide rural counties with the tools they need to combat this crisis.”

    We’re just trying to figure out how to keep people alive while we wait for more treatment up here,” said Wilson.
     

  • Iran Sanctions: A Reminder Of How America Militarized The Financial System

    Authored by Tho Bishop via The Mises Institute,

    Only CNN was surprised by Donald Trump’s recent announcement that he was pulling the United States out of the Iran Deal negotiated by his predecessor. Following the same failed approach of the last Republican administration, the President opted for confrontation with the Iranian regime rather than uplifting more moderate factions within the country through trade. The decision has already increased tensions in the volatile region, with Iran and Israel exchanging fire in Syria.

    Meanwhile European leaders are meeting Iranian officials to try to design a way to bypass new American sanctions. Others have vocally attacked Trump’s actions and attacked the US playing the role of “economic policeman.”

    As French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said after the decision:

    Do we want to be vassals who obey decisions taken by the United States while clinging to the hem of their trousers? Or do we want to say we have our economic interests, we consider we will continue to do trade with Iran?

    According to reports, European officials are looking at a few different options to help salvage their economic relationship with Iran.

    One is by reviving “blocking statues” such as the ones the EU threatened in response to sanctions on Cuba, Libya, and Iran in the 1990s. The mechanism works similar to the anti-commandeering doctrine, ordering European officials to refuse to comply with US sanctions. As Reuters notes, blocking statues have “never been used and is seen by European governments more as a political weapon.” They were successful in the past because the Clinton Administration simply backed down, something that seems unlikely with President Trump.

    The other is to establish new financial institutions with no connection to the US financial system. Iran has already made the euro the official reporting currency for foreign exchange, so on the surface this seems like a viable alternative.

    The problem European decision makers face, however, is that the US has gone to great lengths to militarize the banking industry in recent years.

    As Richard Goldberg noted at Foreign Policy:

    [In 2010] Congress passed a new law leveraging America’s greatest strength against the fulcrum of global commerce with Iran: financial transactions.

    After years of blacklisting most financial institutions in Iran for their involvement in various illicit activities, Congress recognized that it also needed to punish third parties for doing business with these criminal enterprises. Thus, it declared that any foreign bank that maintained a correspondent banking relationship with a designated Iranian bank would forfeit its banking relationships in the United States.

    In 2011, the United States extended this prohibition to transactions conducted with the Central Bank of Iran and, in 2012, to transactions conducted in connection with a wide range of Iranian economic sectors and activities.

    No financial institution is going to want to risk being blackballed from the US banking system, no matter how firmly worded a blocking statute is. As such, the first proposed policy tool has little chance of success.

    Meanwhile, US lawmakers are already devising ways to go after European Central Banks should they seek to establish special financial institutions for Iranian trade. As the Weekly Standard reported, a memo is being passed around Capitol Hill stating that US policy makers should:

    Remind European governments that U.S. financial sanctions apply to all “foreign financial institutions,” which the Treasury Department has previously interpreted to include “central banks or foreign state-owned or -controlled banks,” not just private banks. Countries that consider shifting their payment processing from private institutions to central banks will put their financial systems at serious risk.

    Ironically the lack of real options in checking Trump actually vindicates the worldview Trump espoused as a presidential candidate. Just as Trump articulated an “America First” approach to foreign relations that prioritized “national interest” ahead of the schemes of “globalists,” Europe must identify ways to limit their dependence on the US financial system – or else indeed be reduced to de facto-vassal status to Washington. Just as political decentralization is the best way to achieve true self-determination, financial decentralization is the best way for nations to protect their own sovereign interests.

    Of course to really do so requires resetting the global monetary order.

    So long as the dollar enjoys its privileged position established by Bretton-Woods, the rest of the world is vulnerable to the US leveraging that against them.

  • US Futures Slide After China Data Disappointments

    China’s economic momentum appeared to slow from March’s data as while Industrial Production handsomely beat expectations, Retail Sales were below the lowest estimate and Fixed Asset Investment was the weakest since Dec 1999

    • Industrial output rose 7.0 percent in April from a year earlier, versus a projected 6.4 percent in a Bloomberg survey and 6 percent in March – highest since June 2017

    • Retail sales expanded 9.4 percent from a year earlier, versus a forecast 10 percent – equal lowest since Feb 06

    • Fixed-asset investment rose 7.0 percent year-on-year in the first four months, compared with an estimated 7.4 percent – lowest since Dec 1999.

    While the reports are supposedly among the first official readings unaffected by the Lunar New Year holiday – which skewed year-on-year comparisons for the first three months – we note that the economic surprise index for China shows the same seasonal pattern play out every year…

     

    While offshore yuan was unaffected, US equity futures took a leg lower as the China data hit, though the moves are modest for now…

    “Policy makers will likely become less concerned about slowing activity and monetary growth,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists wrote in a recent note.

    “We expect the government to maintain its recent policy stance because inflation is likely to remain subdued and, more importantly, uncertainties related to trade remain high.”

    And as a reminder, Morgan Stanley economists recently write that the link between China’s credit impulse and the global economy “has now been broken” and justifies his answer as follows: 

    China’s tightening has not had a material impact on the growth cycle either in China or globally, even though its credit impulse began to weaken about 24 months ago. As deleveraging and adjustment headwinds recede, the recoveries in domestic demand in both DMs and EMs have emerged as additional global growth engines.

    Ahya uses the following chart to prove his thesis…

  • Google Employees Revolt, Refuse To Work On Clandestine AI Drone Project For The Pentagon

    Around a dozen Google employees have quit and close to 4,000 have signed a petition over the company’s involvement in a controversial military pilot program known as “Project Maven,” which will use artificial intelligence to speed up analysis of drone footage.

    Project Maven, a fast-moving Pentagon project also known as the Algorithmic Warfare Cross-Functional Team (AWCFT), was established in April 2017. Maven’s stated mission is to “accelerate DoD’s integration of big data and machine learning.” In total, the Defense Department spent $7.4 billion on artificial intelligence-related areas in 2017, the Wall Street Journal reported.

    The project’s first assignment was to help the Pentagon efficiently process the deluge of video footage collected daily by its aerial drones—an amount of footage so vast that human analysts can’t keep up. –Gizmodo

    Project Maven will use machine learning to identify vehicles and other objects from drone footage – with the ultimate goal of enabling the automated detection and identification of objects in up to 38 categories – including the ability to track individuals as they come and go from different locations.

    Project Maven’s objective, according to Air Force Lt. Gen. John N.T. “Jack” Shanahan, director for Defense Intelligence for Warfighter Support in the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Intelligence, “is to turn the enormous volume of data available to DoD into actionable intelligence and insights.” –DoD

    The internal revolt began shortly after Google revealed its involvement in the project nearly three months ago

    Some Google employees were outraged that the company would offer resources to the military for surveillance technology involved in drone operations, sources said, while others argued that the project raised important ethical questions about the development and use of machine learning. –Gizmodo

    The resigned employees cited a range of frustrations, from ethical concerns over the use of AI in a battlefield setting, to larger concerns over Google’s overall political decisions. 

    The disgruntled ex-employees, apparently unaware that Google was seed-funded by the NSA and CIA, have compiled a master document of personal accounts detailing their decisions to leave, which multiple sources have described to Gizmodo.

    The employees who are resigning in protest, several of whom discussed their decision to leave with Gizmodo, say that executives have become less transparent with their workforce about controversial business decisions and seem less interested in listening to workers’ objections than they once did. In the case of Maven, Google is helping the Defense Department implement machine learning to classify images gathered by drones. But some employees believe humans, not algorithms, should be responsible for this sensitive and potentially lethal work—and that Google shouldn’t be involved in military work at all.

    Historically, Google has promoted an open culture that encourages employees to challenge and debate product decisions. But some employees feel that their leadership no longer as attentive to their concerns, leaving them to face the fallout. “Over the last couple of months, I’ve been less and less impressed with the response and the way people’s concerns are being treated and listened to,” one employee who resigned said. –Gizmodo

    Ironically, the development of Google’s original algorithm at Stanford was partly funded by a joint CIA-NSA program in which founder Sergei Brin created a method to quickly mine large amounts of data stored in databases. 

    “Google founder Mr. Sergey Brin was partly funded by this program while he was a PhD student at Stanford. He together with his advisor Prof. Jeffrey Ullman and my colleague at MITRE, Dr. Chris Clifton [Mitre’s chief scientist in IT], developed the Query Flocks System which produced solutions for mining large amounts of data stored in databases. I remember visiting Stanford with Dr. Rick Steinheiser from the Intelligence Community and Mr. Brin would rush in on roller blades, give his presentation and rush out. In fact the last time we met in September 1998, Mr. Brin demonstrated to us his search engine which became Google soon after.” –Nafeez Ahmed

    In their defense of Project Maven, Google notes that their AI won’t actually be used to kill anyone (just help the military ID targets to “service”). That isn’t good enough for workers and academics opposed to the use of machine learning in a military application. 

    In addition to the petition circulating inside Google, the Tech Workers Coalition launched a petition in April demanding that Google abandon its work on Maven and that other major tech companies, including IBM and Amazon, refuse to work with the U.S. Defense Department. -Gizmodo

    “We can no longer ignore our industry’s and our technologies’ harmful biases, large-scale breaches of trust, and lack of ethical safeguards,” the petition reads. “These are life and death stakes.”

    Over 90 academics in AI, ethics and computer science released an open letter on Monday, calling on Google to end its involvement with Project Maven and support an international treaty which would prohibit the use of autonomous weapons systems. 

    Peter Asaro and Lucy Suchman, two of the authors of the letter, have testified before the United Nations about autonomous weapons; a third author, Lilly Irani, is a professor of science and a former Google employee.

    Google’s contributions to Project Maven could accelerate the development of fully autonomous weapons, Suchman told Gizmodo. Although Google is based in the U.S., it has an obligation to protect its global user base that outweighs its alignment with any single nation’s military, she said. –Gizmodo

    “If ethical action on the part of tech companies requires consideration of who might benefit from a technology and who might be harmed, then we can say with certainty that no topic deserves more sober reflection—no technology has higher stakes—than algorithms meant to target and kill at a distance and without public accountability,” the letter states. “Google has moved into military work without subjecting itself to public debate or deliberation, either domestically or internationally. While Google regularly decides the future of technology without democratic public engagement, its entry into military technologies casts the problems of private control of information infrastructure into high relief.”

    We’re sure employees have nothing to worry about and their concerns are overblown – as Google’s “Don’t be evil” motto prevents them from ever participating in some scary program that could kill more innocent people than a Tesla autopilot.

  • Europe May Fold, But China And Russia See Opportunity

    Authored by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

    And we recently discovered, if it was not known before, that no amount of power can withstand the hatred of the many. 

    –  Marcus Tullius Cicero

    Although European leaders are talking a big game about keeping the Iran deal (JCPOA) alive following Trump’s unilateral withdrawal, there’s a good chance nations across the pond, especially the UK and France, will ultimately fold to U.S. demands. This is despite the fact these countries stand to lose far more economically than America. Acquiescing to U.S. imperial demands as submissive client states is simply what Europe does. On the other hand, China and Russia sense opportunity for major geopolitical gains and will not back down.

    Political leaders in China and Russia must be licking their chops at the short-sighted stupidity of Donald Trump’s decision to ditch the Iran deal. As mentioned in previous pieces, the Trump administration isn’t just saying the U.S. will sanction Iran from its end, but that it could leverage the global financial system and its dependency on the USD, to punish those who dare defy U.S. policy.

    As discussed in the recent post, The Road to 2025 (Part 3) – USD Dominated Financial System Will Fall Apart, this unilateral move against Iran is likely to be a key catalyst in the planet transitioning away from a financial system completely and totally dominated by the USD into a more multi-polar currency world. Trump’s essentially willing to trade away U.S. global geopolitical and financial dominance because he’s obsessed with taking out the Iranian regime.

    While Europe may not be willing to make a huge fuss about all this right now, its leaders, and more importantly its citizenry, know exactly what this means. As long as the global financial system is totally dominated and controlled from the U.S. via the USD, no country on earth can be truly sovereign, in terms of economic or foreign policy.

    In case you still aren’t getting how serious this is, let me point you to a few comments recently made by Russian leader Vladimir Putin:

    In comments to lawmakers on Tuesday after his inauguration for a record fourth term as president, Putin said a “break” from the U.S. currency is necessary to bolster Russia’s “economic sovereignty,” especially in light of recent penalties and what he called politically motivated restrictions on trade.

    “The whole world can see that the dollar’s monopoly is precarious and dangerous for many,” he said. “Our gold and currency reserves are being diversified, and we’ll continue to do that further…”

    Putin acknowledged this week that since oil trades in dollars, “we are thinking of what needs to be done to free ourselves from that burden.”

    Every world leader understands this, Putin’s just unique since he’s willing to come out and say it. It’s not just Russia though. People across the world have had just about enough of U.S. bullying and recognize USD dominance in the global financial system represents the key obstacle to overcome if they wish to avoid being pushed around forever.

    Chinese leaders tend to speak less bluntly, but actions speak louder than words and China clearly has no intention of leaving Iran. It understands that becoming more involved in the Iranian economy, not less, is where the huge geopolitical gains are to be found. As we learned from a recent fascinating Bloomberg article, Iran’s Door to the West Is Slamming Shut, and That Leaves China:

    To develop its $430 billion economy, Iran is being forced to rely on political allies in the east.

    Trade with China has more than doubled since 2006, to $28 billion. The biggest chunk of Iran’s oil exports go to China, about $11 billion a year at current prices…

    China is “already the winner,’’ said Dina Esfandiary, a fellow at the Centre for Science and Security Studies at King’s College in London, and co-author of the forthcoming ‘Triple Axis: Iran’s Relations With Russia and China’.

    “Iran has slowly abandoned the idea of being open to the West,’’ she said. “The Chinese have been in Iran for the past 30 years. They have the contacts, the guys on the ground, the links to the local banks.’’

    And they’re more willing to defy U.S. pressure as Trump slaps sanctions back on…

    Airbus Group SE’s contract for 100 jetliners, worth about $19 billion at list prices, was already held up amid financing problems, and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Tuesday that the export licensewill be revoked (Russian manufacturers could be the beneficiaries). Total SA has a contract to develop the South Pars gas field together with China National Petroleum Corp., but has signaledthat it would pull out if the U.S. re-imposes sanctions and it can’t win an exemption. In that event, Iran says, the Chinese partner would take over Total’s share…

    The Chinese have some workarounds that Europeans lack. There are many more Chinese companies with zero exposure to the U.S. And, since many of the Chinese businesses working in Iran are state-run, it’s relatively easy to set up special-purpose vehicles for bypassing U.S. regulations. “All they have to do is create a subsidiary that’s separate from the original entity, and they’re good to go,” said Esfandiary.

    Chinese businesses are also likely to be more flexible about how they’re paid, says Batmanghelidj, citing a transaction he’s aware of where the European company declined to be paid in bonds…

    China — along with Russia — is America’s main strategic rival, with big geopolitical ambitions. Central to them is a plan to crisscross Eurasia with a web of transportation and infrastructure links. Persia was on the old Silk Road, and Iran is at the heart of President Xi Jinping’s plans for a new one.

    Chinese companies are building or funding railway lines to the eastern city of Mashhad and the Gulf port of Bushehr, under deals signed in the past year worth more than $2.2 billion. India was supposed to be developing the strategic port of Chabahar on the Arabian Sea., but repeated delays have prompted Iranian officials to turn to China in the hope of speeding up construction.

    Much of Trump’s base supported him because they wanted the U.S. to focus on domestic issues as opposed to foreign adventurism. Ironically, he’s doing the exact opposite. Rather than tackling the country’s dilapidated infrastructure, continued theft by finance criminals and a completely rancid healthcare system, the national dialogue is now dominated by an embassy move to Jerusalem and heightened confrontation with Iran. I’m not sure what this is, but it’s certainly not “America First.”

    Many Trump supporters like to say he’s playing “3D chess,” but in the case of Iran he isn’t playing chess at all — he’s playing checkers. His infatuation with Israel and Saudi Arabia, coupled with a deep-seated disdain for Iran is blinding him, and opening up a historic opportunity for China and Russia to make major geopolitical gains. Europe’s trying to hang out on the fence and see who comes out on top, but the outcome of such a game should not be in doubt. The results will be crystal clear by 2025.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    I’ve written several detailed posts on this topic in recent weeks. Here are a few:

    Trump Pulls Out of Iran Deal – U.S. Determined to Become a Rogue State

    Part 1: The Road to 2025 – Prepare for a Multi-Polar World
    Part 2: The Road to 2025 – Russia and China Have Had Enough
    Part 3: The Road to 2025 –USD Dominated Financial System Will Fall Apart
    Part 4: The Road to 2025 – A Very Bright Future If We Demand It

    *  *  *

    If you liked this article and enjoy my work, consider becoming a monthly Patron, or visit our Support Page to show your appreciation for independent content creators.

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 14th May 2018

  • Moscow's "Eye In Turkey": Transfer Of S-400 Missiles Will Open Turkey To Russian Spying, NATO Warns

    The German language Der Spiegel magazine in a recent editorial attempted to sound the alarm of encroaching Russian influence in NATO connected with Russia’s advanced S-400 anti-aircraft systems.

    “The Turkish government wants to buy the state-of-the-art Russian S-400 anti-aircraft system. NATO considers this a serious provocation: the system is not only incompatible with the alliance’s existing defenses, but it could also expose secrets of the new US F-35 fighter jet to Russia, which Turkey also wants to buy,” according to a rough translation from the German. 

    Der Spiegel’s editorial was published at end of a week in which the NATO/US and Turkish relationship threatened to reach a breaking point. As we previously reported Turkish Prime Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu recently warned that Turkey would retaliate if a bill being pushed by House Republicans to block arms sales to Turkey becomes law.

    US lawmakers released details earlier this month of a $717 billion annual defense policy bill that included a provision to temporarily halt weapons sales to Turkey. During a subsequent interview with broadcaster CNN Turk, Cavusoglu criticized the measure, saying it was wrong to impose such a restriction on a military ally, alluding to the fact that Turkey has graciously allowed the US to use its Encirlik air base to launch its air strikes against ISIS (as well as against Turkey’s enemy the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad).

    “If the United States imposes sanctions on us or takes such a step, Turkey will absolutely retaliate,” Cavusoglu said. “What needs to be done is the U.S. needs to let go of this.”

    Will Turkey’s retaliation come in the form moving forward with installation of Russia’s S-400 missile system?

    While still a ways away from becoming law (and its unclear if President Trump, who has publicly praised Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan) the proposed US National Defense Authorization Act would block sales of “major” arms to Turkey until a report on the relationship between the US and Turkey (which is also a component of the law) is completed by the Pentagon.

    The implied target of the bill would be the 116 F-35 Lightning II fighters that Washington has promised to sell Ankara, of which 100 are almost ready to be delivered. The bill is in many ways a response to Turkey’s recent purchase of S-400 air defense systems from Russia. 

    And interestingly, NATO is now pushing the idea that Russia supplying a NATO member with the advance S-400 would open up Turkey to unprecedented access to Russian spies, especially as the system installation would require months of technical training and Russian-Turkish military-to-military cooperation. 

    The Der Spiegal editorial presents this “Russian exploitation of NATO weapons systems” point of view in its provocative article below is analysis and translation of select passages authored and submitted by Leith Aboufadel of Al-Masdar News.

    * * *

    For NATO, the supply of Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems to Turkey is a real “provocation,” the German magazine Der Spiegel writes. The alliance fears that with the help of the S-400, Moscow will be able to find the strengths and weaknesses of the fifth-generation F-35 fighter jets that Ankara intends to purchase from Washington, the publication said.

    “Ironically, the S-400 is considered potentially the most dangerous enemy of a multi-functional fighter, which in the next few years will become the basis of the US Air Force and other countries,” Spiegel writes.

    As further reported, servicemen of NATO countries are wary of deliveries of Russian SAMs, since, in their opinion, they can become Moscow’s “eye in Turkey”. With the help of the S-400, Russia will be able to obtain all the data on the F-35 and other combat aircraft, the authors believe.

    In the opinion of the editorial board, the S-400 will also reduce the effectiveness of the stealth technology, which reduces the visibility of the F-35. As Spiegel writes, Russian ZRKs will be able to record onboard radar data, ground communication channels and radio communications, with the help of which the S-400 will “step by step study and locate allegedly invisible fighters.”

    “For the F-35 armament system, of which stealth technology and data transfer capabilities are critical, this would be a disaster,” the publication notes.

    In December last year, Turkey and Russia signed an agreement on the supply of the S-400 system. Ankara will buy two batteries of air defense systems, which will be serviced by Turkish personnel. The two sides also agreed on technological cooperation in the development of the production of anti-aircraft missile systems in Turkey.

    The United States, as well as NATO representatives, repeatedly expressed dissatisfaction with the supply of S-400 to Turkey. US Assistant Secretary of State Wess Mitchell stated that the purchase of Russian SAMs could negatively affect the supply of American F-35s to Turkey.

  • If Europe Wants To Remain On The World Stage, It Must Resist Trump On Iran

    Authored by Patrick Cockburn via Counterpunch.org,

    “Iraq is at the muzzle of the gun,” says Ali Allawi, Iraqi historian and former minister, speaking of the increased turmoil expected to follow the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement.

    It is not only Iraq which is in danger: an escalating confrontation between the US and Iran will affect the whole region, but its greatest impact will be in Syria and Iraq where wars have long been raging and Washington and Tehran are old rivals.

    The US will rely at first on the reimposition of economic sanctions on Iran to force it to comply with US demands and hopefully bring about regime change in Tehran. But, if this does not work – and it will almost certainly fail – then there will be a growing risk of military action either carried out directly by the US or through “green-lighting” Israeli airstrikes.

    Iran is for the moment reacting cautiously to Trump’s denunciation of the 2015 accord, portraying itself as the victim of arbitrary action and seeking to spur the EU states into taking practical steps to resist imposing draconian sanctions along the lines of those that were imposed before 2015. Even if this does not happen, it will be important for Iran that the Europeans should only grudgingly cooperate with the US in enforcing sanctions, particularly on Iranian oil exports.

    A problem for the US is that Trump has made the Iranian nuclear deal negotiated by Barack Obama the issue on which he will test the limits of US power which he had pledged to expand. But the agreement is internationally popular and is seen to be working effectively in denying Iran the ability to develop a nuclear device. The US is therefore becoming self-isolated, with full support only from Israel and Saudi Arabia, in the first weeks of a crisis that could go on for years.

    Already Trump’s determination to sink the deal forever has involved marginalising and humiliating France, Germany and UK. They had pleaded for it to be preserved but made more palatable to the US by separate agreements on ballistic missiles and other issues. Trump seems to have enjoyed the procession of European leaders from Emmanuel Macron to Boris Johnson asking for compromise, only to go away empty-handed.

    If the European leaders now go along with sanctioning Iran, there will be even less reason for Trump to take their views seriously in future. They have already seen their attempt to appease him on climate change fail to produce anything, so they either have to accept that they have less influence and a reduced role in the world or make a serious attempt to preserve the nuclear accord.

    But even if they do so, the US will be able to put intense economic pressure on Iran and its trading partners. Banks and companies are terrified of incurring the ire of the US Treasury and facing massive fines for even an unintentional breach of sanctions. Even if EU governments want their companies to go on investing in Iran, they may consider the risk too great.

    Sanctions are a powerful but blunt instrument, take a long time to work and usually do not produce the political dividends expected by those who impose them. The Iranian rial may fall and hyperinflation return to 40 per cent, but this will most likely not be enough if Iran returns to enriching uranium. It has already said that it is not going to keep abiding by its part of the nuclear agreement if it is not getting any of the economic benefits promised.

    What will the US do then? This is the crucial question for the Middle East and the rest of the world. Trump has just torpedoed any diplomatic solution to what he sees as the threat of Iran developing a nuclear bomb. The only alternative is a military response, but this would have to be more than a few days of intense airstrikes. Anything less than total war would not win for Trump the kind of results he says he wants.

    Iran may be weak economically, but politically and militarily it is in a strong position in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, the countries likely to provide the main arena for the coming crisis. In all three places it is Iran’s fellow Shia who are in control and see the US as an ally of the Sunni states in what is in large part a sectarian Shia-Sunni conflict.

    Has the Trump administration thought any of this through? The crisis is beginning to feel very much like that in the buildup to the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Some of the same figures, such as the national security adviser John Bolton, are the very same neoconservatives who believed that invading and occupying Iraq would be an easy business. They sound as if they are bringing the same blend of arrogance and ignorance to their coming confrontation with Iran.

  • Hypersonic Weapons: The Perfect Tool For Asymmetrical Warfare

    Authored by Federico Pieraccini via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    As recently confirmed in a debate at the Brookings Institute by the Commandant of the United States Marine Corps, General Robert Neller, “there are military areas in which the United States maintains a technological advantage [over Russia and China], others in which there is substantial parity, and others in which the United States is lagging behind, revealing a technological gap with its peer competitors.

    The last point applies to weapons systems designed to operate at hypersonic speed. Let us start with the simple and pragmatic definition offered by The National Interest of hypersonic vehicles and weapons:

    A hypersonic vehicle is one that moves through the atmosphere at a minimum speed of five times that of sound, or Mach 5. A hypersonic cruise missile travels continuously through the air employing a special high-powered engine. A hypersonic glide vehicle [HGV] is launched into space atop a ballistic missile, after which it maneuvers through the upper reaches of the atmosphere until it dives towards its target. Both vehicle types can carry either conventional or nuclear weapons.

    As we can see, we are speaking here about technological developments that require money and scientific structures of the highest level to achieve such significant and complex results. The difficulty of implementing systems of such complexity is very well explained by Defense Review:

    One of DR’s primary questions about the Russian and Chinese HAA/HGV [Hypersonic Attack Aircraft/Hypersonic Glide Vehicle] tech is whether or not the vehicles generate a plasma field/shield around it that can effectively camouflage the vehicle and/or disrupt an incoming high-powered laser beam, and thus avoid both detection and destruction during its flight. Russian scientists and military aircraft designers/developers have been experimenting with plasma field generation tech since the late 1970’s, so one would think they’re pretty far along by now. Oh, and let’s not forget China’s recent development of a new ultra-thin, lightweight “tunable” UHF microwave radar-absorbing stealth/cloaking material for both manned and unmanned combat aircraft and warships. The hits just seem to keep on coming. Its enough to drive a military defense analyst to drink.

    Another area of complexity concerns the communication between the hypersonic flight carrier and and its land-based components, especially if the re-entry vehicle is to be maneuvered remotely.

    The fundamental component in performing a hypersonic flight naturally lies in the engines, used to reach speeds higher than Mach 7. There are ongoing studies by all of these countries concerning scramjet engines, essential for the purposes of producing hypersonic weapons. By employing a scramjet engine, and mixing it with other technologies (jet engine or ramjet), one would enable the aircraft and missiles to reach hypersonic speeds, as Beijing’s Power Machinery Research Institute explains:

    The turbo-aided rocket-augmented ram/scramjet engine (TRRE), which uses rocket augmentation to aid the transition into the supersonic and hypersonic flight regimes, could be the world’s first combined cycle engine to fly in 2025, paving the way for hypersonic -space planes and single-stage space launchers.

    DARPA also explains the US point of view on this particular area of research:

    Advanced Full Range Engine program (AFRE) which is intended as a reusable hypersonic engine that combines an off-the-shelf jet engine with a dual mode ramjet engine.

    War Is Boring definitively clarifies the concept using simpler words:

    Turbojet? Ramjet? Scramjet? A turbojet spins a lot of blades to compress and heat incoming air. A ramjet moves so fast that the engine is already hot and compressed enough to ignite the fuel. A scramjet – short for “supersonic combustion ramjet”  is just that, a ramjet where the incoming air is moving at supersonic speeds.

    The world of hypersonic weapons is divided into four types: hypersonic cruise missiles, which are surface- or air-launched; hypersonic glide vehicles, brought to high altitude by missiles or jets, re-entering the atmosphere at very high speeds while maneuvering, and able to hit targets with conventional or nuclear bombs; hypersonic attack aircraft, which are vehicles that fly at hypersonic speeds and are capable of taking off and landing, and are therefore useful for surveillance purposes but potentially also for attack; and finally, hypersonic anti-ship missiles.

    Let’s examine them one by one, listing the current respective stages of research, development and testing of the countries in question.

    The first type of hypersonic weapons are the easiest to understand. Simply put, these are cruise missiles with scramjet engines that are capable of accelerating to hypersonic speeds.

    Hypersonic cruise Missiles (excluding anti-ship weapons available below) United States (testing phase)

    Russia/India (testing phase)

    • BrahMos-II is a hypersonic missile currently under development in India and Russia

    The most discussed weapon is the hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV). What exactly a HGV is can be explained as follows:

    HGVs are unmanned, rocket-launched, maneuverable aircraft that glide and “skip” through the earth’s atmosphere at incredibly fast speeds. Compared to conventional ballistic systems, HGV warheads can be much higher, lower altitudes and less-trackable trajectories. The defense systems approach leaves less time to intercept the warhead before it drops its payload.

    Glide Weapon/Hypersonic Glide Vehicle:

    United States (experimental phase)

    • For years, the US has worked on missiles that can be used as a Tactical Boost Glide (TBG) weapon, which is a rocket glider that can reach speeds of 20,921 kilometers per hour, or Mach 20, and then uses a scramjet/ramjet engine to perform maneuvers. Currently, the United States is in the research and development phase of experimenting with an Advanced Hypersonic Weapon (AHW) known as the Hypersonic Technology Vehicle 2 (HTV-2)

    Russia (entering into service in 2019)

    • KH-47M 2 Kinzhal (Dagger). An air-launched, modified Zircon missile launched from a MiG-31.

    China (test phase)

    • DF-17/DF-ZF/WU-14 – Hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) medium-range system, with a range of between 1,800 and 2,500 kilometers.

    As we can see, Russia is almost ready to start mass production of their HGVs, while the US is still in the early phase of experimentation, and China is already undertaking numerous tests.

    The most complicated factor with hypersonic technology concerns the Hypersonic Attack Aircraft (HAA), equipped with scramjet engines and able to attain hypersonic speeds, but with the added benefit of being able to take off and land. They are to be unmanned and can be used for surveillance or attack purposes.

    Hypersonic Attack Aircraft

    United States (unknown phase)

    • No known projects, much speculation about tests and scientific research. For example, the US military created in 1996 a program called SHAAFT. Now the US Military is working on a number of prototypes:

    Russia (testing phase)

    China (testing phase)

    • TENGYUN is a hypersonic aircraft powered during the first stage by a turbine rocket combined cycle (TRCC) engine, which then launches a reusable second-stage rocket to reach the stratosphere.

    Because scramjet technology, on which HAA systems rely, is still in its early phases of development, this weapon system is unlikely to see the light of day any time soon.

    Anti-ship missiles accelerate to hypersonic speed, allowing them to hit naval groups. As described below, this is because of a scramjet motor that gives such missiles their power:

    Anti Ship Missiles are believed to be a maneuvering, winged hypersonic cruise missile with a lift-generating center body. A booster stage with solid-fuel engines accelerates it to supersonic speeds, after which a scramjet motor in the second stage accelerates it to hypersonic speeds.

    Anti Ship Hypersonic Missiles:

    United States (Currently only possesses sub-sonic missiles)

    Russia (operational)

    China (testing phase)

    In the next article I will explain how Russia and China Gained a Strategic Advantage in Hypersonic Technology and why this could be a game changer in future war scenarios. 

  • HSBC Completes First Trade-Finance Deal Using Blockchain, Opening $9 Trillion Market For Mass Adoption

    Just a few hours after German online bank Bitbond announced it now allows users to transfer loan anywhere in the world using bitcoin and other cryptos , a move which we said would result in a rapid adoption of blockchain technologies within the bank-disintermediation space, the FT reported that in a somewhat parallel transaction, UK-based banking giant HSBC has completed the world’s first commercially viable trade-finance transaction using blockchain, in the process opening the door to mass adoption of the technology in the $9tn market for trade finance, a process which ironically culminates with traditional banks such as HSBC becoming disintermediated from the fund flows process, i.e., obsolete.

    HSBC said the blockchain trade, which processed a letter of credit for US food and agricultural group Cargill, had shown the platform was ready to be commercially adopted across the industry.

    In many ways the news will be welcome, especially when it comes to trade finance: traditionally one of the most convoluted and burdensome pillars of modern finance, one which has been deeply in need of disruption.

    As a result, the FT notes that the introduction of blockchain “is expected to shake up the centuries-old trade-finance industry, reducing the numerous documents and several days of processing needed for a single transaction to a paperless task that can be completed in hours.”

    And, as Vivek Ramachandran, head of innovation and growth for commercial banking at HSBC, said, “the next stage is actually encouraging as many participants as possible to sign up to the utility” adding that banks, shipping companies, ports and customs operations would have to take up the same technology before it could gain widespread usage. “We don’t envisage the platform as anything other than a utility.”

    Think of blockchain is to trade finance as DTCC was to old-school stock certificates (incidentally, blockchain is set to revolutionize DTC as well).

    In trading hubs around the world, banks such as HSBC still operate trade-finance floors filled with stacks of paper documentation for trade. Blockchain transactions will greatly reduce these operations in the coming years, Mr Ramachandran said. HSBC took in $2.52bn in trade-finance revenue last year, making it one of the world’s largest banks in the industry.

    In light of these numbers, it is understandable why HSBC wants to streamline its process even more, generating a far higher profit margin.

    Some more details on the historic blockchain-mediated letter of credit:

    The transaction for Cargill was for a shipment of soyabeans from Argentina to Malaysia last week. HSBC used the Corda blockchain platform, which was developed by technology consortium R3. Dutch bank ING, which has also adopted the technology, was a counterparty on the deal.

    Unlike previous test transactions, the one for Cargill could be replicated if the same counterparties were involved, Ramachandran said, showing that the technology is ready for commercial use.

    To be sure, HSBC was delighted with the outcome, and Ramachandran likened the advent of blockchain trade finance to the usage of standardized shipping containers, which were slowly but surely adopted by ships, ports, railways and trade companies over several decades to eventually become the primary mode for global shipping.

    And now the race is on for the next standardization protocal, which unless something far better emerges in the coming months, will be blockchain:

    In much the same respect, counterparties to trade finance — such as banks, ports and traders — must all adopt common platforms and standards for blockchain trade finance, something that Mr Ramachandran says will play out over the next five years.

    To be sure, there will be bottlenecks, and widespread adoption of the technology will still face challenges as companies and banks attempt to make their pilot projects fit in with the bustling world of global trade, said Gadi Ruschin, chief executive at Wave, an Israel-based start-up developing bill-of-lading products using blockchain. Many of the products currently under development around the would fail, he predicted.

    “The blockchain is only an enabling technology for different products and each product should be evaluated in many aspects before evaluating the chances for adoption — technology, regulations, cost of the service, security but the most important one is the product market fit,” Ruschin said.

    As discussed most recently three months ago, trade finance – its massive $9 trillion industry size notwithstanding – is just one of numerous fields ripe for disruptions and improvement; ultimately the broad reach of blockchain will impact no less than $100 trillion worth of goods and services; in this context, the fact that the market cap of the entire crypto universe (at just over $400 billion at this moment) is less than half the market cap of Apple, may be one of the biggest arbitrage opportunities in history.

  • The United States Of Beer

    Across the board, beer consumption in the United States has been slowly and steadily dropping since the early ’80s.

    However, as Visual Capitalist’s Nick Routley notes, that fact doesn’t tell the whole story. Trends around beer consumption are anything but uniform, and the industry is evolving rapidly thanks to the craft beer boom in cities throughout the country.

    BEER CONSUMPTION BY STATE

    Today’s infographic looks at regional beer consumption, as well as trends over the past half-decade.

    Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

    PINTS OF INTEREST

    Beer is still the most popular alcoholic beverage in America, though that demand is not spread equally. Here are states and regions that stand out:

    Utah
    The Beehive State has unusually low levels of beer consumption for a couple of reasons. First, the state has a high population of Mormons (~60%), who mostly abstain from drinking alcohol. Secondly, Salt Lake City has unusual liquor lawsthat restrict the percentage of alcohol in beer to 4.0% ABV.

    Despite these barriers, Utah’s beer consumption grew by 2.8% between 2012 and 2017 – the sixth highest growth rate in the country.

    New Hampshire
    Another outlier, though in the opposite direction, is New Hampshire. The state has no sales tax, a fact that beer drinkers in Vermont, Massachusetts, and Maine are well aware of. It’s estimated that over 50% of the states alcohol sales are to out-of-state visitors. NH’s tax-free booze is such a big draw, that bootlegging has become a problem for states like New York.

    Pacific Northwest
    America’s West Coast – Oregon in particular – has been at the forefront of the craft beer revolution sweeping the country. Portland alone has over 100 craft brewers, and nearly double-digit growth in the past five years. In states like Oregon and Washington, demand shows no sign of slowing down.

    THE FULL LIST

    Here’s a complete table, that sums up beer consumption across the country, as per data from Wall St 24/7.

  • Iran And Syria: Why Regime Change In One Means Regime Change In Both

    Authored by Cailtin Johnstone via Medium.com,

    Probably the weirdest, dumbest, most annoying thing about writing on US foreign policy right now is the fact that regime change in Iran and regime change in Syria have been falsely spun into the illusion of two separate issues along partisan lines.

    People who are more aligned with America’s Democratic Party are a lot more opposed to the overthrow of the Iranian government and a lot more sympathetic to the idea of getting rid of Assad, and with those who are more aligned with the Republican party it’s the exact opposite.

    Partisan politics turn people into such drooling idiots. 

    Democratic Party-aligned Americans oppose Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran deal because it was Obama’s baby, while Republican-aligned Americans support it for the exact same reason. This is a deliberate provocation designed to enable crushing economic sanctions, which the US-centralized war machine always uses as a prelude to war, to weaken and destabilize the nation. Plan A will be for imperial intelligence agencies to stage a coup or fund a violent uprising in order to either throw Iran into impotent chaos or replace its government with a puppet regime (either one satisfies Plan A). Plan B will be something more direct.

    We’re seeing the reverse in Syria: Democratic Party-aligned Americans are virulently opposed to Assad because Russia is actively fighting on his side, and the Russiagate psyop has Democrats hating anyone who they suspect might have anything to do with Vladimir Putin. They also need to justify the fact that the Obama administration helped stage a premeditated violent uprising and flooded Syria with terrorists with the goal of destabilization or regime change. Trump supporters, meanwhile, oppose regime change in that nation largely because it’s a secular government besieged by violent deep state-funded jihadists.

    I am of course painting with a broad brush here; there are Democrats who oppose any kind of interventionism in Syria and there are Trump supporters who oppose it in Iran, but as someone who’s been writing about US-led interventionism in both countries I can say from experience that there is a clear partisan split in public sympathy for each of them. I’m getting liberals agreeing with me about Iran who’ve aggressively denounced my writings on Syria, and a bunch of conservatives who supported my Syria writings now loudly objecting to my writings on Iran. Which is absolutely insane, because it’s the same goddamn war.

    Iran and Syria are plainly allies. They are both longtime targets for regime change by neocon think tanks and western defense/intelligence agencies, and they are both being aggressively targeted by Israel and Saudi Arabia. It is very clear that the tightly allied nations on the side of the United States (which I call “the western empire” or the blob) view both nations in the same light. If you ignore the babbling narratives and just look at the behavior of the blob, it is clear that it is working against both nations as though they are a single entity.

    If the government of either Iran or Syria falls, it will either be replaced with a puppet government or allowed to collapse into a failed state, in either case unable to assist the other in defending itself from imperial regime change interventionism. Cheerleading for regime change in one nation is necessarily cheerleading for regime change in the other, and all the death, suffering and devastation that necessarily goes with it. You can’t install a puppet regime in one without facilitating the destruction of the other.

    Conservatives who support the longstanding neoconservative agenda of regime change in Iran: you are supporting regime change in Syria. You are supporting the installation of a government that will no longer assist Syria in fighting against the western-armed jihadist factions, and you are helping to ensure that Damascus falls to violent Islamist factions. Consenting to American regime change interventionism of any kind in Iran is an endorsement of the enemies that Assad is fighting in Syria.

    Liberals who support the longstanding neoconservative agenda of regime change in Syria: you are supporting regime change in Iran. You are supporting the collapse of a key Iranian ally which will no longer be there to help stave off the agenda to plunge Iran into chaos and terror. You are supporting the anti-Iranian agendas of warmongering neocons like Trump, Pompeo and Bolton.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Partisan minds may see Iran and Syria as two completely different situations, but the leaders of the western empire see them as one and the same. With the constantly fluctuating political leadership of Official Washington and the continued agendas of America’s permanent government, the unelected power establishment knows that if it takes out one nation it’s only a matter of time before it will be politically convenient to take out the other.

    Fox News babbles nonsense about freedom and democracy and Islamic fundamentalism in Iran, CNN babbles nonsense about Assad targeting civilians with barrel bombs and chemical weapons, but this has nothing to do with any of those things. This is about a transnational alliance of plutocrats and intelligence/defense agencies targeting all governments which don’t bow to its interests, with the ultimate goal of world domination. They target the weaker and smaller nations first in order to weaken their bigger allies, Russia and China, which are the ultimate target.

    A powerful group of plutocrats have built their kingdoms on a specific status quo, and they are therefore naturally opposed to rising governmental powers like China which threaten that status quo. These plutocrats have built up their power and influence to the point where they are able to use the governments in the western empire as weapons to attack, bully and subvert any potential geopolitical challengers of the status quo.

    That’s all this is. All the propaganda, all the nonsense about Mullahs and chemical weapons and Russian hackers, all the war and terror and suffering, is all because a few sociopathic individuals have been able to claw their way up the capitalist ladder to such a height that they can use governments to advance their insatiable power-grabbing agendas. Different political factions are being propagandized in different ways along their respective paths of least resistance into supporting these agendas, but as always the fake partisan divide always benefits the same group of depraved ruling elites.

    Oppose these elites by opposing interventionism across the board. It isn’t okay for a few wealthy oligarchs to use governments to destroy and subvert entire nations. It isn’t okay that governments which should be helping their people are instead stretched all across the globe bending over backwards to make sure a few plutocrats don’t get dethroned. It isn’t okay that oligarchic domination has taken precedence over the basic human impulse to survive and thrive. We must all cease consenting to this together, regardless of political ideology.

    *  *  *

    Internet censorship is getting pretty bad, so best way to keep seeing my daily articles is to get on the mailing list for my website, so you’ll get an email notification for everything I publish. My articles and podcasts are entirely reader and listener-funded, so if you enjoyed this piece please consider sharing it around, liking me on Facebook, following my antics on Twitter, checking out my podcast, throwing some money into my hat on Patreon or Paypalor buying my new bookWoke: A Field Guide for Utopia Preppers.

  • China's First Domestically-Built Aircraft Carrier Begins Sea-Trials

    It is all coming together, and the United States should be terrified.

    Late last month, we suggested that Beijing’s first domestically built aircraft carrier would begin sea trials “imminently.” Pictures and video from Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Company, located in Dalian, Liaoning province, China, the largest shipbuilding company in the country, showed the aircraft carrier, so far known as Type 001A (CV-17), preparing for its first independently powered foray at sea.

    In a new announcement from the Defence Ministry, the still-unnamed vessel (Type 001A) exited the port outside the Dalian shipyard at 5:30 am on Sunday morning — embarking on its first sea trial. A military strategist told the Global Times, “the trial will mainly test basic system functionality and carrier-based aircrafts will participate in combat trials after the carrier is formally delivered to China’s navy.”

    Images show China’s first domestically built aircraft carrier setting out for sea performance test on Sunday morning (Source: Global Times) 

    Images show China’s first domestically built aircraft carrier setting out for sea performance test on Sunday morning (Source: Global Times) 

    The video shows the aircraft carrier preparing to leave the port in Dalian on Sunday morning around 5:30 am. It took five tugboats about two hours to successfully spin the vessel around and head out to sea, as the ship disappeared in the fog at 7:30 am.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The first sea trial will primarily concentrate on testing core systems of the vessel, including power, communication, fire safety, and electro-mechanical, Song Zhongping, a military expert and TV commentator, told the Global Times.

    “Weapon systems and carrier-based aircrafts are unlikely to participate in the first sea trial, and combat capability tests will be carried out by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy after the carrier is formally delivered to the navy. Before this, its producer may need about six months to finish tests, which means the navy will receive the ship by the end of this year,” Song said.

    Chinese President Xi Jinping, recently spearheaded an ambitious modernization plan for the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), including stealth bombers and fighter jetshypersonic vehicles, and anti-satellite missiles, as Beijing increases its presence in the heavily disputed South China Sea and around Taiwan, an island that it still considers its own.

    In early April, we described how Beijing assembled a massive show of naval force in the South China Sea — the largest in more than 600-years. Beijing’s maritime expansion comes as no surprise, as President Jinping is pushing for the One Belt One Road Initiative.

    The PLAN assembled all of its most advanced warships, aircraft carrier, aircraft, and nuclear submarines for a massive show of force in the South China Sea. State-run Chinese papers said the number of warships assembled “the largest of its kind in 600 years.” This is following the 14th-century fleet admiral Zheng He, whose large expeditions in Southeast Asia, South Asia, Western Asia, and East Africa — helped establish China’s power through expansion of the Maritime Silk Road during the Ming dynasty era.  

    The Type 001A is a conventionally-powered vessel and will be able to hold more planes than China’s only other aircraft carrier, called Liaoning.

    China’s PLAN has taken an increasingly aggressive role in 2018, with Liaoning and dozens of warships sailing through the South China Sea and around self-ruled Taiwan.

    While the United States Navy operates 19 aircraft carriers and plans to build a few more, Chinese state-run media has quoted military experts as saying Beijing needs at least six carriers. There are expectations that the Type 001A will enter the PLAN fleet as early as 2019, or at the latest by 2020.

    Washington and Beijing are sleepwalking into a tremendous collision, that ultimately could resort to a military conflict in the South China Sea.

  • A Beginners Guide To The Conflict In Yemen

    Authored by Stucky via The Burning Platform blog,

    Don’t have the time to do research on the Yemen conflict? Here ya go, as brief as we can make it…

    *  *  *

    TWO YEMENS

    – Yemen was a divided country for hundreds of years

    North Yemen gained independence from the Ottoman Empire when it collapsed in 1918

    – North Yemen was then ruled by a Zaydi Shiite Imam. Zaydi Shiism is a branch of Shiite Islam found almost exclusively in Northern Yemen.

    – in 1962 the military staged a coup against the Zaydi monarchy.

    – the conflict lasted several years and essentially became a proxy war between Egypt (who supported the military) and Saudi Arabia (who supported the royalists).  The war ended in 1970.   The royalists and Saudis lost.

    – Meanwhile, South Yemen gained its independence from British and Saudi rule in 1967.

    – South Yemen aligned itself with the Soviets (the only communist country in the Arab world).

    – North and South Yemen clashed for the next several decades

     

    TWO YEMENS RELIGIOUSLY

    ONE YEMEN under Ali Saleh (1990 -2011)

    – The Soviet bloc disintegrated which led to the merger of North and South Yemen  in 1990

    – The new ruler for unified Yemen was Ali Saleh, who prior was the ruler of North Yemen.

    – Civil war broke out in 1994.  South Yemen felt Saleh’s regime was marginalizing them.,  Saleh quickly squashed the opposition.

    – Saleh soon ran into more problems, this time right in North Yemen. Sheikh Hussein al-Houthi (1956 -2004) was a political and military leader.  He began a religious revivalist movement in the early 1990s.  His goal was to reassert traditional Zaydi Shiism which was losing ground to the fundamentalist Sunni (particularly Salafism) proselytizing supported by Saudi Arabia.  His followers and movement were called Houthis.

    – The Houthi movement eventually shifted from a religious bent to political. From wiki; — “In 2003 the Houthis’ slogan “The God is great, death to the US, death to Israel, curse the Jews, and victory for Islam”, became the group’s trademark.”  Between 2004 and 2010, there were six conflicts between Houthi rebels and Saleh’s government.

    – In September 2004, the Yemeni government announced that their military killed al-Houthi along with 20 of his followers. The Yemeni government creates a martyr.

    REVOLUTION!!  (2011 – 2014)

    – Inspired by the protests in Tunisia, tens of thousands of Yemenis took to the streets in January 2011, demanding Saleh’s resignation.  Saleh refused and many were killed.

    – But, Saleh is forced to bow to domestic and international pressure and signed an agreement to cede power.  In Feb 2012 his vice president, Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi, takes over. The agreement was brokered by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Saudi Arabia, and United States.

    – The peace did not last long. Hadi lost control quickly.

    – There were al-Qaida attacks, the economy was tanking, southern Yemen wanted to secede again, and Houthi rebels were engage in brutal fighting with Hadi’s government. Attempts were made to broker a new constitution, but no one could agree on anything.

    – Yemen borrowed money from the IMF.  The IMF as part of the loan agreement demanded austerity measures. So, in 2004, Hadi announced cuts to fuel subsidies. The huge increase in fuel prices hit the mostly poverty stricken population very hard, and served to provoke the Houthi-backed protestors to further destabilize the government. Hadi rescinded the cuts, but the damage was done.

    HOUTHI RULE  (2014 – 2015)

    – Houthi rebels seize control of most of the capital, Sanaa, in September 2014.

    – Hadi signs a U.N.-brokered peace with the Houthis to form a new, more inclusive government within a month.

    – By January 2015 the Houthis reject the new government and constitution. They place Hadi under house arrest but, Hadi is able to escape to Aden.

    – In February 2015, the Houthis dissolved parliament and formed a new transitional government.

    – The GCC, United Nations, and United States quickly denounce the coup.

    – In March 2015 Houthis expand their military campaign. They’re able to take over large parts of the country. Hadi flees to Saudi Arabia.

    SAUDI INTERVENTION  (2015 – current)

    – Saudi Arabia is Sunni.

    – Yemen (the Houthi part)  is Shia.

    – Iran (Shia) supports Yemen.

    – Saudi Arabia hates Iran.

    – Yemen (Houthis) / Iran (Shia) were winning.

    – This was too much for the Sauds. So, they formed a military coalition with eight other Arab states.  But, the intelligence, arms, and logistical support came from the United States and England. The coalition began their airstrike campaign in March 2015 in order to defeat the Houtis and restore Hadi to power.

    – With overwhelming superiority in weapons, fire power, and support from the World’s Lone Superpower the Sauds thought the campaign would be over in a few short months. In over a year of bombing the coalition has made only minimal territorial gains.

    YEMENS TODAY

    – Yemen is functionally two countries, or governments; the Houthis in Sanaa, and Hadi in Aden.

    – all the various brokered peace talks have gotten nowhere

    – the Trump administration is siding with the Sauds, and wherever possible blaming the various war atrocities on Iran.  But, it is the coalition with bombs and airplanes, and there is zero doubt, as evidence exists, that coalition armaments have struck schools, hospitals, and civilian areas.

    – 75% of Yemenis need some kind of humanitarian assistance to meet basic needs, about 8 million are at risk of starvation, cholera is becoming an epidemic, Riyadh is even preventing fresh bottled water from entering the country  … the country meets every definition of a failed state.

    MY CONCLUSION

    “He [Esau] will be a wild donkey of a man; his hand will be against everyone and everyone’s hand against him, and he will live in hostility toward all his brothers.” —- Genesis 16:12

    The 5,000 year long conflict in the Middle East is not just between Jew and Arab.  It is also (and, probably, primarily) between Arab and Arab. Will things suddenly get better in 2018?  Sure, there have been periods of peace. But, it never lasts. Because Esau is a wild ass of a man. That’s not God talk. That’s history talk.

  • Futures Extend Gains On Trump's Trade-War Retreat, Dollar Sinks

    The Dollar and bond yields are lower as Sunday evening trading begins but US equity futures are up around 0.4% following President Trump’s apparent retreat from Chinese trade-wars, supporting the rescue of giant telecoms company ZTE..

    The Dollar Index is selling off modestly…

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 13th May 2018

  • Trump's Pyrrhic Victory: The US Opts For A Path That Can Only Lead To War

    Authored by Philip Giraldi via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    Nearly everyone loses by President Donald Trump’s decision on Tuesday to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) relating to Iran’s nuclear energy program and to reinstate the “highest level” of sanctions while also threatening secondary sanctions on any country that “helps” the Iranians.

    The whole world loses because nuclear proliferation is a disaster waiting to happen and Iran will now have a strong incentive to proceed with a weapons program to defend itself from Israel and the United States.

    If Iran does so, it will trigger a regional nuclear arms race with Saudi Arabia and Egypt undoubtedly seeking weapons of their own.

    Iran and the Iranian people will lose because their suffering economy will not now benefit from the lifting of sanctions and other economic inducements that convinced it to sign the agreement in the first place.

    And yes, even the United States and Israel will lose because an agreement that would have pushed back by ten or fifteen years Iran’s timetable if it were to choose to develop a weapon will now be reduced to a year or less. And the United States will in particular lose because the entire world will understand that the word of an American president when entering into an international agreement cannot be trusted.

    The only winners from the withdrawal are President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who will enjoy the plaudits of their hardline supporters. But their victory will be illusory as the hard reality of what they have accomplished becomes clear.

    Failure of JCPOA definitely means that war is the only likely outcome if Tel Aviv and Washington continue in their absurd insistence that the Iranians constitute a major threat both to the region and the world. A war that might possibly involve both the United States and Russia as well as Iran, Saudi Arabia and Israel would devastate the region and might easily have potential to escalate into something like a global conflict.

    The decision to end the agreement is based on American domestic political considerations rather than any real analysis of what the intelligence community has been reporting. Deep-pocketed Iran-hating billionaires named Sheldon Adelson, Rebekah Mercer and Paul Singer are now prepared to throw tens of millions of dollars at Trump’s Republican Party to help it win in November’s midterm elections.

    Those possessed of just a tad more foresight, to include the Pentagon and America’s European allies, have strongly urged that JCPOA be continued, particularly as the Iranians have been fully in compliance, but there is a new team in Washington. America’s just-confirmed Secretary of State Mike Pompeo did not exactly endorse the ludicrous Israeli claim made by Benjamin Netanyahu two weeks ago that Iran has a secret weapons of mass destruction program currently in place, but he did come down hard against the JCPOA, echoing Trump in calling it a terrible agreement that will guarantee an Iranian nuclear weapon. The reality is quite different, with the pact basically eliminating a possible Iranian nuke for the foreseeable future through degradation of the country’s nuclear research, reduction of its existing nuclear stocks and repeated intrusive inspections.

    The failure of the JCPOA is not about the agreement at all, which is both sound and workable. There is unfortunately an Israeli-White House construct which assumes that Iran is both out to destroy Israel, for which no evidence has been revealed, as well as being singularly untrustworthy, an odd assertion coming from either Washington or Tel Aviv. It also basically rejects any kind of agreement with the Iranian government on principle so there is nowhere to go to “fix” what has already transpired.

    The United States has changed in the past seventeen years. The promotion of policies that were at least tenuously based on genuine national interests is no longer embraced by either political party. A fearful public has allowed a national security state to replace a constitutional republic with endless war as the inevitable result. Presidents once constitutionally constrained by legislative and judicial balance of power have successfully asserted executive privilege to become like third world dictators, able to make war without any restraint on their ability to do so. If America survives, historians will no doubt see the destruction of the JCPOA as the beginning of something new and horrible, where the government of these United States deliberately made a decision to abandon a beneficial foreign treaty to instead opt for a path that can only lead to war.

  • "We Are Telling People To Plan For The Worst": Hawaii Braces For Explosive New Eruptions

    A little over a week after Hawaii’s Kilauea volcano erupted, The Big Island is now bracing for a series of explosive eruptions which could occur within days or weeks, hurling boulders the size of small cars, creating a giant ash cloud, and oozing even more of the hot magma which has already claimed at least 36 structures and forced thousands to evacuate. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Geologists believe the hardest hit by the new activity will be the Leilani Estates in the southwestern Puna district, around 20 miles south of Hilo where all 1,900 residents have already been evacuated. 

    We are telling people to plan for the worst. They should have a Plan A, a Plan B and a Plan C,” said county official Roann Okomura, who helps operate one of the evacuation shelters.

    As a lava lake at Kilauea’s summit drains inside the volcano, magma is running underground. It could burst to the surface as large, fast-moving and intensely hot lava flows and produce higher levels of toxic gases, Hawaiian Volcano Observatory scientist-in-charge Tina Neal said.

    In addition, Kilauea, one of the world’s most active volcanoes, threatens to begin a series of explosive eruptions within days or weeks that could form huge clouds of volcanic smog, or vog, and hurl boulders as big as small cars. –Reuters.

    What will take a turn for the worse in terms of hazard is if hotter, fresher magma makes it to the surface, and that could be what is coming,” Neal told a conference call on Friday. “Once a new batch of hotter, gassier magma makes it to the surface we might see larger, higher eruption rates.”

    Sixteen fissures have opened up on the eastern flank of Kilauea since its initial eruption eight days ago – oozing relatively cool, slow moving magma left over from a similar incident in 1955. Scientists now worry that fresh magma from deeper within the earth is about to come surging behind it

    In other words, what’s happened over the last eight days was just “cleaning out the pipes” so to speak. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Yesterday we reported on a series of powerful earthquakes which have hit The Big Island since it Kilauea began erupting. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    In Pahoa, the nearest village to Kilauea, some schools remained closed after the area was hit by a 6.9 magnitude earthquake on Friday, the biggest since 1975.

    Meanwhile, a new fissure opened up near the Puna geothermal power plant on Saturday, spattering lava less than a mile from the facility. There are still nearly 50,000 gallons of pentane stored at the siteaccording to Hawaii News Now.

    Compounding worries is a text message sent to residents of the southeast corner of the island by County authorities warning them of a wind change that would bring rising levels of sulfur dioxide gas, which can be fatal if inhaled in large quantities.

    Hawaii’s governor has warned that mass evacuations may be required as more fissures open in the ground and spew lava and gas into semi-rural residential areas on the east flank of Kilauea, one of the world’s most active volcanoes.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    President Trump issued a disaster declaration for Hawaii on Friday, announcing that federal funding had been approved for local recovery efforts in the affected areas. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    “Additional designations may be made at a later date if requested by the state and warranted by the results of further damage assessments,” the White House added in a statement.

    Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) chief Brock Long named deputy Federal Coordinating Officer Willie Nunn as the agency’s top official overseeing the relief efforts. 

    “As more fissures open and toxic gas exposure increases, the potential of a larger scale evacuation increases. A mass evacuation of the lower Puna District would be beyond current county and state capabilities, and would quickly overwhelm our collective resources,” Ige said.

    Federal assistance would be necessary to enable us to successfully conduct such large-scale operations.” 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  • The Deep State Mob Targets Nunes

    Authored by Julie Kelly via The Center for American Greatness,

    In an absurd tweet on Wednesday, Lawfare’s executive director suggested that Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Calif.) should be replaced as chairman of the House Intelligence Committee:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    That wasn’t even the most moronic tweet in Susan Hennessey’s arsenal. She went on to warn how “the intelligence oversight system is based on trust. Without trust it is irretrievably broken. The [Intelligence Community] and [Department of Justice] don’t trust Nunes and he cannot perform his job functions.” Get that? The Intelligence Community and the Justice department—which have proven to be as political and devious as a Chicago ward boss—are the white hats and Nunes is the black hat.

    That is not ignorance on Hennessey’s part: it’s calculated deception.

    Fortunately, it’s unlikely that House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) will heed an unreasonable demand from a political partisan tied to the left-leaning Brookings Institution.

    But it does unveil the latest tactic of the Left (and some on the Right) to discredit and ultimately oust Nunes, the only Republican on Capitol Hill who appears to have his act together when it comes to exposing the players behind the Trump-Russia election collusion scheme.

    The Deep State Mob is continuing to squeeze the California congressman after he again threatened to impeach Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein for ignoring congressional subpoenas and withholding crucial documents from Congressional investigators. Nunes has minced no words about how the Justice Department and FBI have been “stonewalling” his committee’s investigation for months. And as Nunes inches closer to revealing the stinking core of what is potentially the biggest political corruption scandal in U.S. history, the Deep State Mob is trying to close in on him first.

    Nunes and other House Republicans want to find out exactly how and why the FBI’s counterintelligence operation into possible collusion between the Trump campaign and the Russian government began in the summer of 2016, and what intelligence sources either aided or instigated that probe. The latest showdown, according to the Washington Post, is because Nunes has issued a subpoena demanding that the Justice Department provide information about an unnamed individual referenced in a classified letter to Attorney General Jeff Sessions last month.

    While there are few details about the individual in question, the Wall Street Journal’s Kimberly Strassel intimates that the person could have been a mole inside the Trump campaign:

    We know Nunes’s request deals with a “top secret intelligence source” of the FBI and CIA, who is a U.S. citizen and who was involved in the Russia collusion probe. We might take this to mean that the FBI secretly had a person on the payroll who used his or her non-FBI credentials to interact in some capacity with the Trump campaign.

    Strassel, who has been carefully covering this scandal, has a hunch of who the source is but couldn’t confirm it.

    The Justice Department is fighting Nunes’s request on the basis that any disclosure would “risk severe consequences, including potential loss of human lives, damage to relationship with valued international partners, compromise of ongoing criminal investigations and interference with intelligence activities.” While Justice officials met with Nunes and committee member Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.) late Thursday, they did not allow them to see the information in question. Nunes indicated that he would continue to press the department to fulfill his request.

    Now Nunes’s foes are portraying him as a rogue actor – perhaps even a traitor – who is willing to see intelligence assets killed in order to carry water for President Trump. CNN national security analyst Asha Rangappa echoed the Justice Department’s warning that Nunes is risking lives to achieve political ends.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    In a one-two punch, Hennessey’s boss upped the attacks on Nunes during a discussion with former FBI Director James Comey on Friday. Benjamin Wittes, Lawfare’s editor and close Comey pal, rhetorically asked Comey, “what’s Devin Nunes gonna be able to tell his grandchildren? It’s a serious question. He is affirmatively acting in a fashion that some of us judged, you know, Edward Snowden very harshly for behaving in a fashion that puts at risk intelligence sources and methods when being told so by the senior levels of the Justice Department.” (Others have tried to get the “Nunes-Is-Literal-Snowden” trope going before. We’ll see if it finally takes off next week.)

    Comey, the consigliere of the Deep State Mob, anguished to his buddy about the lost values of the Republican Party: “This is my hope for the Republicans as a whole, that they realize that only a fool would trade the institutions and the values that actually unite us for the policy gains they think they’re getting from a president who is eroding and attacking those values.” Sounds like some sour grapes from the guy who lost his battle against Nunes to keep his memos secret.

    Fellow fired prosecutor Preet Bharara joined Comey in mocking Nunes this week. After a bogus storysurfaced that Nunes doesn’t read the intelligence information he receives, the former head of the DOJ’s Southern District of New York (yes, the same office assigned with investigating Trump lawyer Michael Cohen) tweeted this:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    But it’s not just the Deep State Mob on the Left that is after Nunes: Their soulmates in the smoldering political ash heap that is the neoconservative movement are speaking out, too. In an egregiously flawed assist in Commentary, Noah Rothman gives aid and comfort to the Deep State Mob, incredibly by making Nunes the bad guy. Rothman accuses Nunes of causing the trust breakdown in the House Intelligence committee, the same committee whose ranking member is the despicable leaker Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.). Rothman smugly claims that “there is no impartial assessment of his tenure as House Intelligence Committee chair in which he comes off as a competent steward of American national security or capable of the dispassionate oversight of the institutions that safeguard U.S. interests at home and abroad.”

    Rothman suggests that even Trump doesn’t trust Nunes and that’s why the president (for now) has acquiesced to the Justice Department’s stonewalling on the source subpoena. He wrongly claims that Nunes recused himself from the investigation early on, then calls Nunes an “obstacle in the way of truth” who should be removed.

    Any close observer of the unfolding story of how the disaster of the Obama Justice Department exploited our most trusted federal agencies to hatch the Trump-Russia scheme is either on the floor laughing or smashing things at Rothman’s absurd accusation.

    The Deep State Mob wants to destroy anything and anyone associated with Trump, particularly those who are brave enough to incur their wrath to get to the truth on behalf of the American people. Nunes isn’t a traitor: He’s a hero.

  • Giuliani Inserts Foot In Mouth, Says Trump "Denied" AT&T Merger

    The ever-affable Rudy Giuliani has once again stuck his foot in his mouth regarding his old friend and new boss, Donald Trump.

    In a Friday interview with the Huffington Post, Giuliani – seemingly in an attempt to defuse the Michael Cohen “consultancy” scandal – claimed that Trump “denied the merger” between AT&T and Time Warner, despite long-standing protocol designed to keep DOJ decisions independent from the executive branch in order to keep the department free of political influence by the White House. Apparently the previous administration didn’t get the memo either.

    Giuliani’s statement comes on the heels of revelations that Trump’s personal attorney, Michael Cohen, accepted a $600,000 payment right after the inauguration for “insights” into President Trump’s thinking.

    The president had no knowledge of it.” Giuliani told the Post, adding “Whatever lobbying was done didn’t reach the president… He did drain the swamp … The president denied the merger. They didn’t get the result they wanted.

    Cohen received $600,000 from AT&T, $1.2 million from Swiss pharmaceutical giant Novartis and $500,000 from an investment bank affiliated with a Russian oligarch, all following Trump’s unexpected election win in 2016.

    Giuliani said Cohen’s business relationships did not contradict Trump’s campaign promises to end “pay-to-play” schemes and to “drain the swamp” because Cohen did not get for his newfound clients what they wanted. HuffPo

    Earlier in the week, AT&T said that they hired a company created by Cohen right after the inauguration – when it sorely needed government approval for the Time Warner deal, it hired a company created by Cohen in order to glean insights into the Trump administration.

    AT&T’s top Washington executive, Bob Quinn, said that Cohen didn’t conduct any lobbying work for them – while CEO Randall Stephenson told employees that hiring Cohen was “a big mistake” in an internal memo circulated on Friday. While not-so coincidentally according to NBC News, was AT&T’s Friday announcement of Quinn’s sudden retirement.  

    If in fact AT&T thought this would buy them an approval, one has to wonder if Cohen simply trolled AT&T for $600K and laughed all the way to the bank. They were about to acquire CNN after all – and in December of 2017 said they wouldn’t sell the network to satisfy a DOJ demand before trying to close the $85 billion deal.

    On the other hand – had AT&T agreed to sell CNN and the merger been approved, the Cohen payment would have the appearance of a successful “pay-for-play” deal.

    AT&T says it was contacted by special counsel Robert Mueller’s office in late 2017 and cooperated with the probe, according to the Wall Street Journal.

    Our reputation has been damaged,” wrote Stephenson in the Friday memo. “There’s no other way to say it – AT&T hiring Michael Cohen as a political consultant was a big mistake.”

    The FBI raided Cohen’s office, hotel and home last month amid an active federal investigation. Since the raid, there have been several mysterious leaks of information from various media outlets – such as the release of his bank records, or the claim that he arranged a $1.6 million payoff to a former Playboy model in late 2017 who says she was impregnated by a top Republican fundraiser, “according to people familiar with the matter” (96 hours after the raid).

    Elliott Broidy, a GOP donor, right, and his wife, Robin Rosenzweig (2014)

    Michael Cohen, whose office, home and hotel room were raided by federal agents this week, arranged the payments to the woman on behalf of Elliott Broidy, a deputy finance chairman of the Republican National Committee with ties to Mr. Trump, the people familiar with the matter said. Mr. Broidy, a Los Angeles-based venture capitalist, works on the Republican committee with Mr. Cohen, who is also a national deputy finance chairman. –WSJ

    Giuliani, the former mayor of New York and US Attorney of the office now investigating Cohen, assumed the lead on Trump’s private legal team handling the Mueller investigation in the hope of wrapping it up as soon as possible. He said on Friday that he doubts Trump would be able to speak with the special counsel investigation before his June 12 summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. 

    He said the fact that Cohen has become involved in the probe shows that Mueller has been unable to make headway on the idea of collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia. He blamed much of Cohen’s involvement on adult film actress Stormy Daniels and her new lawyer, Michael Avenatti. They have been trying to break a non-disclosure agreement she signed promising not to discuss an affair she said she had with Trump a decade ago in return for $130,000. –HuffPo

    Giuliani says that Cohen did nothing wrong. 

    “They’re buying his advice. It can turn out to be good or bad,” he said. “There’s a lot of people in Washington who are paid for their advice.” Which, of course, is the reason why Washington is just one giant “swamp” which Trump once upon a time vowed to drain.

  • An "Audible Gasp" Was Heard When The Chicago Fed Unveiled Its "Solution" To The Pension Problem

    Submitted by Mark Glennon of Wirepoints

    An audible gasp went out in the breakout room I was in at last month’s pension event cosponsored by The Civic Federation and the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. That was when a speaker from the Chicago Fed proposed levying, across the state and in addition to current property taxes, a special property assessment they estimate would be about 1% of actual property value each year for 30 years.

    Evidently, that wasn’t reality-shock enough. This week the Chicago Fed published that proposal formally. It’s linked here.

    It surely ranks among the most blatantly inhumane and foolish ideas we’ve seen yet.

    Homeowners with houses worth $250,000 would pay an additional $2,500 per year in property taxes, those with homes worth $500,000 would pay an additional $5,000, and those with homes worth $1 million would pay an additional $10,000.

    Is the Chicago Fed blind to human consequences? Confiscatory property tax rates have already robbed hundreds of thousands, maybe millions, of Illinois families of their home equity — probably the lion’s share of whatever wealth they had.

    Property taxes in many Illinois communities already exceed 3%, 4% and even 5% of home values. Across Illinois, the average is a sky-high 2.67 percent, the highest in the nation.

    In south Cook County they already average over 5%. Most of those communities are working class, often African-American. The Fed says maybe you could make the tax progressive by exempting lower values, but that’s very difficult to do and, if you did somehow exempt the poor and working class, the bill pushed to the others would be astronomical.

    Those rates have already plunged many communities into death spirals, demanding an immediate solution, but the Chicago Fed apparently wants to pour on more of the accelerant.

    Don’t they understand that people won’t build on or improve property when property taxes are that high? When taxes are 3 percent to 6 percent, any value you add to your home is going to be taxed at that high rate forever. Have they never been to our communities with countless disrepaired, abandoned homes and commercial properties, which are the result?

    Get this, which is part of the Fed’s reasoning:

    “New taxes wouldn’t affect people thinking of moving to Illinois. While they would have to pay higher property taxes, that would be offset by not having to pay as much for their new homes. In addition, current homeowners would not be able to avoid the new tax by selling their homes and moving because home prices should reflect the new tax burden quickly.”

    In other words, just confiscate wealth from current owners because they will pay, whether they stay or not, through an immediate reduction in home value.

    This proposed tax would only address the five state pensions. What about the other 650-plus pensions in Illinois, particularly those for overlapping jurisdictions in Chicago which are grossly underfunded? The Fed was asked that at last month’s seminar and they, without explanation, said they didn’t bother to cover that.

    I’ve earlier met Rick Mattoon, one of the Chicago Fed authors of the proposal. He’s a smart, likeable guy who I thought had lots of interesting information. For the life of me, however, I can’t understand how he would put his name on this proposal.

    Property can’t leave, so seize it. That’s the basic idea.

  • Army's New Weapon: Special Goggles Allow Soldiers To Shoot Around Corners

    The United States Army recently awarded BAE Systems $97 Million in orders for new night vision goggles and thermal weapon sights for the Enhanced Night Vision Goggle III and Family of Weapon Sight-Individual (ENVG III/FWS-I) program. The all-in-one weapon sight system allows soldiers to acquire and eliminate enemy targets through a wireless connection that transmits the weapon’s crosshairs and surrounding imagery directly into the soldier’s goggles.

    BAE Systems ENVG III/FWS-I integrated system uses a wireless connection that transmits the weapon sight’s aim point and surrounding imagery directly into the soldier’s goggles. (Source: BAE)

    With both units wirelessly integrated, soldiers are on the verge of using weapon sight imagery and aim to point technology that can wirelessly transmit the gun’s sights to the soldier’s goggles with one click of a button – for a quick tactical edge during close combat warfare.

    In other words, soldiers are about to receive futuristic devices that replace traditional night vision goggles with integrated systems, and allow troops on the battlefield to “shoot around corners, see-through dense vegetation, and smoke, plus distinguish friend from foe,” said USA Today.

    “It is no longer just a night vision device,” said Army Col. Christopher Schneider, the project manager for the system that can be worn night and day. “The enemy cannot see we are targeting him until we pull the trigger.”

    BAE Systems promotional video titled: Own the night with ENVG III/FWS-I

    (By integrating night vision goggles and weapon-mounted thermal sights into one system, BAE Systems’ Enhanced Night Vision Goggle III and Family of Weapon Sight-Individual (ENVG III/FWS-I) solution makes darkness a tactical advantage for the dismounted soldier. (Source: BAE Systems via YouTube)

    “Aiming to provide the most technically advanced and lightweight solution possible, our goggles allow soldiers to quickly detect and engage targets for a tactical edge,” Marc Casseres, director of Precision Guidance and Sensing Solutions at BAE Systems, said in a recent BAE press release.

    “When fully integrated with the FWS-I weapon sight, the combined solution provides superior imagery and a target acquisition capability that can greatly increase mission success and survivability,” he added.

    The high-tech goggles are part of the United States Department of Defense (DoD) modernization program to keep the United States Armed Forces technologically ahead of China and Russia, which, in recent years, has shown they are quickly catching up. USA Today notes that the DoD has spent more than 17 years in Afghanistan and Iraq, as China and Russia have studied the various strategies and technologies deployed on the Middle East battlefield.

    “Our adversaries have been studying our strengths and our vulnerabilities and are developing capabilities to exploit those vulnerabilities,” Gen. Mark Milley, the Army’s chief of staff, warned in a speech last year.

    “They have steadily eroded our competitive advantage and are rapidly closing the capability gap that we have long enjoyed,” he added.

    A thermal sight on an M4 service rifle is connected wirelessly to the new night vision goggles attached to a soldier’s helmet. (Source: Jack Gruber, USA Today)

    Integrated situational awareness and thermal targeting system. (Source: BAE) 

    USA Today points out that America’s rapid modernization program is the most significant in five decades, as China and Russia’s technological advancements have alarmed U.S. military officials.

    “With U.S. involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan winding down, the Army has embarked on its largest modernization programs since the Vietnam War nearly five decades ago to overhaul its weapons, training and tactics.

    The post-Vietnam revamping transformed a large draft Army with discipline and other problems into a smaller all-volunteer fighting force equipped with modern weapons and better-trained troops.

    The problems are not as desperate now, but officials are worried about the progress that Russia and China have made. Technological breakthroughs are cheaper and happen faster than decades ago when America could count on its advantages in industry and technology to power the military

    “We still maintain overmatch, but they are closing the gap,” Army Undersecretary Ryan McCarthy said in a recent interview.

    McCarthy said that Army is in the process of establishing a Futures Command headquarters — based in an urban environment with close relationships to academic institutions and local industry. The Army wants a location that “will help us think differently and get more people from the country to help us solve problems,” he explained.

    At $23,000 a pop, the Army plans to field 36,000 FWS-Is and 64,000 ENGV IIIs to combat teams in the second half of 2018.

    A soldier with the advanced goggles will be able to fire an assault rifle around corners or above his or her head because of the wireless sights attached to the Picatinny rail of the weapon. The ability to field the goggles before the next war breaks out will be critical for urban warfare in densely populated cities.

    “We won’t be able to avoid the dense urban terrain or the megacities in the future,” said Maj. Gen. Maria Gervais, deputy commanding general of the Army’s combined arms center at Fort Leavenworth, Kan.

    War is coming. The Army is preparing.

  • Trump's Neocon Folly: Goodbye Nuke Deal, Hello Global Debt Crisis

    Authored by Tom Luongo,

    At least it is confirmed for us.  Donald Trump wants regime change in Iran.  His cancellation of the JCPOA was a decision born his myopia.  He has surrounded himself with people who reinforce his view and manipulate him via his vanity.

    And the price of implementing his current plan will be a global debt crisis which no one will escape.  The problem will be very few will see the links.

    He wants to remake America and the world in his image while undoing anything President Obama touched.  Most of this I’m wholly on board with.  Obama was a vandal.  So, however, were Bush the Lesser and Bill Clinton.

    We’re All Neocons Now

    We have a leaked (yeah, right) memo explaining this is the plan.  But, we didn’t need this if we were being honest with ourselves.  Nothing Trump has done since he’s been in office has been contra to this goal; overthrowing the theocracy in Iran.

    In fact, it has been a step-wise move in this direction with each decision he’s made.  Commentators I respect and have learned at the knee of still want to give Trump the benefit of the doubt.  Not me.

    It’s right there in plain text.

    Trump has capitalized on the insane Deep State opposition to his presidency to politicize this goal and get his base to ab-react for regime change, when he explicitly said that was off the table at his inauguration.

    If the Democrats and Merkel want to stay in the deal, then the deal must be bad.  Obama Bad, Trump Good.  Trump is Orange Jesus.  He knows stuff, man.

    What was a worry about Israeli influence in his administration in 2017 has now morphed into a call to duty to create chaos in Iran to assuage the American ego by saving the Iranian people from themselves.

    You have to hand it to these folks, they understand how to run a successful mass psy-op.  Beware the Master Persuader, as Scott Adams would put it, his skills can be put to any use.

    These men and their Deep State handlers/billionaire donors have had a strategic goal for decades, remake the Middle East for Israel and the Oil Complex, bottle up Russia and China.

    Donald Trump’s patriotism is revealed to be jingoism.  But, he made this clear in his speech to the U.N. last year.  At some point you have to put away childish things and face the world we’ve got.

    And that world is one of extreme uncertainty.

    Back to the Future

    As I said the other day, Trump wants to reset the clock back to 2012.  Bottle up Iran, cut its ties to the world.  Remove 1 million barrels of oil per day from the markets (for his Saudi weapons customers “Look!  Yuge JOBS!”). And bully our allies into getting the plan to atomize Syria back on track.

    But, it’s not 2012.  It’s 2018 and everything is different.  Iran has friends it didn’t have then.  Yes, there is local unrest and unhappiness which could grow.  The rial is falling like a rock, people in Iran can’t get dollars.  Not solely because Trump has cut them off from the dollar but because Iran has.

    It anticipated this move by him and the chaos of today turns into the de-dollarization of tomorrow.  These people still think destroying a national currency is the path to political change. It’s a dangerous gambit that doesn’t always work.

    It didn’t work with Russia in 2014/5.  It’s not working in Venezuela today. And if those countries have friends, China for Russia in 2015, Russia and others for Venezuela today, then the longer the regime stays in power once the worst of the crisis hits, the lower the probability regime change becomes.

    I told everyone last year the Saudi gambit to isolate Qatar wouldn’t work.  If they didn’t get regime change in Doha within two weeks, then the government would survive.  It has and now it is free to pursue whatever it wants, having finally bought a 19% stake in Russian state oil giant Rosneft.

    Trump has been signaling this moment for almost two years.  Do you think Russia, Iran and China have not been game-planning this?  When the attack on the ruble began in 2014, Putin did the unthinkable.  In doing so revealed his central bank’s disloyalty.

    By demanding to free-float the ruble, under objection from his economic advisor Alexander Kudrin and central bank President Elvira Nabullina, Putin stabilized the situation quickly.  Then he ordered the Bank of Russia to assist payment of more than $50 billion in Russian corporate debt denominated in dollars from central bank reserves.

    China opened up ruble/yuan swap lines to help funnel dollars into Russia.  The Bank of Russia had to abandon IMF-style austerity and serve Russian interests first rather than continue playing into the hands of U.S. hybrid war tactics.

    Iran has these people as its friends now.  They are committed to its survival.  They may not be committed to the IRGC staying in Syria post-ISIS/Al-Qaeda, but they are committed to an Iran aligned with them for the road ahead.  And that Road has a Belt attached to it.

    Because they know that if they lead the opposition to U.S. aggression, then they will gain allies over time.  In acting this way Trump is revealing the U.S. to be the repressive, messianic global oligarch of the world order it claims the Iranian Islamic Republic to be over its citizens.

    Everyone will get in line behind the Orange Emperor or suffer his wrath.  Why?  Because Bibi Netanyahu can’t sleep at night?  Get that psychopath a plushie and leave a night light on for pity’s sake.

    It also has an EU wanting to establish itself as a separate power from the U.S.  Angela Merkel and French Poodle Emmanuel Macron both want an independent EU foreign policy and a Grand Army of the EU to put down any internal rebellions.

    China can and will assist Iran in overcoming the sanctions.  So will Turkey, who did so in 2012. Will it be enough save the Islamic Republic?  Possibly.  If that happens will the U.S. get what it wants?

    Most probably not.  National Security Advisor and Certified Crazy Person John Bolton wants to put the Saudi-backed MEK (Mujahedeen-e-Khalq), a cult-like Sunni group with zero support in Iran.  You’ll hear in the coming days about how great these guys are.

    Just like U.S. NGO-backed Russian agitator Alexei Navalny is promoted in the Western press even though he can’t get 2,000 people to march in Moscow on the day of Putin’s inarguration.

    Sanctions Cut Both Ways

    Russia, ultimately, has the sanctions hammer in its control of the uranium market.  It’s also a major supplier of both titanium and aluminum.  The U.S. has never considered sanctioning the first two and it’s plan to sanction Rusal has been close to a disaster.

    Trump believes in the primacy of the U.S. threat both militarily and financially so much that he’s willing to project it everywhere and at everyone to get what he wants in Iran.  We thought he reluctantly signed those new sanctions last summer.  Nonsense.

    If so, he wouldn’t be using those new powers in ways that are the height of hubris.  Explicit in his threats to Iran and his demands that are, as Alexander Mercouris put it at The Duran yesterday, “so extreme that no sovereign state could ever accept them and retain its independence.”

    So, let’s again put away childish things and think that Trump will not take this to whatever point he thinks is necessary to get his desired outcome.

    But, in doing this he will upset world financial markets already fragile from a decade of QE and an explosion of cheap dollar-denominated debt.  The Fed is raising interest rates. Bond traders are resisting raising rates at the long-end of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, causing it to flatten dangerously.

    Trump wants a continued weaker dollar but geopolitical uncertainty creates dollar demand because so much of the world’s debt and trade is based in it.  For over a year Foreign Central Banks have been parking U.S. Treasury purchases with the Fed as the dollar weakened.

    Now that trend has firmly changed.

    The Dollar Debt Bomb

    Moreover, the ECB is trapped at the negative-bound.  Mario Draghi keeps telling everyone he has no Plan B.  He will keep being the marginal (or only) buyer of EU sovereign debt until the market finally pukes all over him.

    If Trump is serious about putting sanctions on any foreign entity that does any business with Iran then that will set off chain reactions around the globe.  It’s why I’m not sanguine about EU leadership standing up to Trump in the long run.

    But it’s a real opportunity for Merkel et. al. to establish a new pole in the proposed multi-polar world advocated by Putin and Chinese Premier Xi Jinping.

    The worry now is a technical breakout of the U.S. 10 year above 3.05%.  U.S./EU credit spreads   With the dollar strengthening low loan servicing costs become big quick.  Anyone who has/had an adjustable rate mortgage understands this viscerally.

    With China no long buying U.S. debt, it is free to funnel dollars to Iran through proxies and its own oil trade to keep things from escalating.  That lack of recycling of its trade surplus is part of what kept the dollar weaker longer.  Now that the dollar is rising, we can safely say that that effect has been over-run.

    China can and will put pressure on the Saudis by buying more Iranian oil.  Expect Iran now to cut it’s monthly tender price to undercut Saudi Arabia on a forward basis.  In 2012 U.S. sanctions made it difficult for shippers to insure oil shipments and that was part of the reason they were initially so successful.

    With the Fed tightening, reserves of the U.S. banking system are falling thanks to excess reserves being mobilized. The U.S. budget will strain from rising debt servicing costs, now above 8.6% of total outlay, compared to less than 8% this time last year.  Again this puts upward pressure on the dollar as foreign markets are starved of dollars.

    Next, Trump wants more balanced trade with China and Europe and he’s willing to guy global trade to do it.  But that also means a stronger dollar in the long run as debt still needs to be serviced while trade is falling.

    Again, fewer exported dollars while the budget deficit grows.  Emerging Markets are already suffering horrendous capital outflows.  Just wait until things actually get bad.

    Eurodollar markets have been drained of their liquidity in recent months as U.S. corporates repatriate funds and, like Apple, buy back their stock.

    All of this points to reaping a whirlwind of dollar strength, not weakness, which to me, looks like the spark of the global debt crisis the Fed delayed for over a year by not raising interest rates sooner.  It bowed to IMF pressure in 2014/15 to delay raising rates.

    And the world is not prepared for the dollar spiking 20 or 30% over the next year.  It is not prepared for a shift in risk assets stocks to bonds.  A spiking dollar will create a perfect storm of debt defaults that will unleash chaos which will topple governments (and not Iran’s).

    Trump will not react well to this, claiming, like all U.S. Presidents that China is manipulating its currency down to harm us.  That’s utter nonsense.  As I’ve laid out, Trump is creating the very whirlwind he’s trying to avoid.

    It’s why the DOW is holding above 24,000.  And why the euro is about to collapse.

    Survival is Winning

    So, here we are.  This is why I keep saying China, Russia and Iran’s best moves politically are to do nothing overt.  Iran was not the aggressor the other day.  That’s another of Bibi’s blatant lies.

    Russia looks weak by not responding to Israel’s spastic flailing the other day, but it knows that time is on its side.  The SAA/IRGC and Russian forces continue to destroy pocket after pocket of resistance in Syria.

    Putin will continue to hold his water, waiting for the opportune moment to reverse his opponent.  Russia’s limit has not been reached in Syria yet.  Putin always does this.  It drives his critics and his supporters crazy.

    It’s geopolitical judo and he’s the master at it.  And when that reversal comes and Israel has been thrown flat on its back, Trump’s only move will be to settle.  Why speculate on what he’ll do.  Just watch and wait it out.  The signs are all there.

    When that happens John Bolton will retreat farther into madness, hopefully he’ll throw himself off a building and put us all out of his misery.  Let’s hope someone’s iPhone captures it for posterity’s sake.

    After a brief spasm in the financial markets thanks to Trump’s insane aluminum tariffs, Russian equities and the ruble are rallying.

    In fact the MICEX Index just put in its all-time highest weekly closing price.  Its sovereign debt markets are stable and the yield curve is widening.  Capital is flowing into Russia despite horrific U.S. sanctions.

    This is the model for Iran’s resistance.

    Russia is winning the financial war of attrition and the stronger it gets the more it can support Iran in the long run alongside China.

    This is the limit of Trump’s unwillingness to update his worldview from 2003.  He’s held this view of Iran his entire life and surrounded himself with the ‘experts’ to take Iran out.  Even if the Mullahs fall, the backlash from the process whatever form it takes will set the global debt markets aflame, a bonfire of Trump’s vanity.

    *  *  *

    To support work like this and find out how you can de-stress your investment portfolio as we live through a period of global geopolitical strife sign up for my Patreon and subscribe to the Gold Goats ‘n Guns Investment Newsletter.

  • Kansas Police No Longer Allowed To Have Sex With People They Pull Over

    Kansas police are going to have to stop having sex with people they pull over for traffic violations, after Governor Jeff Colyer (R) signed a new bill into law on Thursday outlawing sexual relations “during the course of a traffic stop, a custodial interrogation, an interview in connection with an investigation, or while the law enforcement officer has such person detained,” according to the Kansas City Star

    Because there’s nothing quite like love at first sight…

    Prior to the measure, Kansas was one of 33 states where consensual sex between police and an individual they detained was not a crime, according to the star. A similar bill was passed in New York last month specifying that people in police custody are unable to consent to sex.

    The bill, introduced by Rep. Cindy Holscher (D) “helps the person who was detained in their neighborhood or stopped for a ticket, that type of thing,” she told The Star.

    Holscher said she was also moved by a case in New York where a teenager claimed she had been raped by two police officers in the back of their van, but no charges were filed because the officers claimed the sex was consensual and therefore legal.

    Kansas law previously said “there shouldn’t be sexual relations between police and persons in jail, but it didn’t say anything about if they had been stopped on the streets or were in their custody,” Holscher said. –The Star

    Kansas lawmakers say the new law was long overdue.

    “Those of us who have been there for a few years thought it was something that had already been taken care of in the law,” said Rep. John Carmichael, D-Wichita, an attorney and member of the Judiciary Committee.

    “She [Holscher] called me about this. I said, ‘You mean it’s not against the law?‘ She said, ‘No, it’s not,'” Carmichael said. “I checked with the revisor (of statutes) and it was not specifically against the law in Kansas.”

    Most officers are great guys and women who are working hard, but there’s always the one,” he added. 

    Indeed…

  • Correlations Flashing Yellow Light

    Submitted by Nick Colas of DataTrek Research

    Asset price correlations remain at elevated levels, even as US stocks stage a mid-quarter rally. Why? We attribute it to continuing macro concerns about everything from the price of oil to future Fed policy, geopolitics, and long-term interest rates. Bottom line: don’t let your guard down. Still high correlations + even a small market shock = much higher volatility.

    At a naïve level, outperforming the S&P 500 has been easy in 2018: overweight Technology as much as you dare and snip your holdings of everything else in equal measure. Tech is up 9.2% on the year versus the market’s 1.8% advance. If you are a value investor, large cap Energy would have done the trick. After some hair-raising volatility in February the group is now up 6.2% in 2018.

    In practical terms, there’s a big problem with that notionally easy recipe. The correlations between Tech and the S&P 500 have been +0.95 since February’s volatility. Yes, Tech’s strong fundamentals have helped tremendously (the group has been down on the year only 2 days since Jan 1). But in terms of portfolio diversification, it is a dud.

    Large cap Energy’s ties to the S&P’s performance are somewhat looser, which when combined with the recent surge in commodity prices helps explain its YTD outperformance. Its price correlation to the S&P has been below the average industry sector for the last two months (0.71/0.76 vs. 0.75/0.80), so capital looking for less-correlated price momentum has elbowed its way into the group.

    All this is important for one reason: correlations define the utility of capital markets for investors as much as simply making money in the market. “Beating” a rising market by taking on more risk is relatively simple. Managing returns in the context of risk and uncertainty requires access to investments that move differently from each other. The more options here, the better for both investors (who can put more capital to work) and the societies that uses their capital to grow and prosper.

    US stocks and global capital markets have not delivered much on this point since 2008, price performance notwithstanding. Sector correlations in the S&P 500 were uniformly high from 2009 – 2016, as were the price relationships between foreign developed/emerging equity markets to US stocks. Last year saw the first real declines, which we attribute primarily to the 2016 US elections only because the data clearly shows that cause-and-effect.
    This year has been a roller coaster for correlations as much as stock prices, with February’s volatility pushing up the former as much as they depressed the latter.

    Here are three points on the most recent correlation data, calculated through yesterday’s close:

    1. US sector correlations still remain much higher than 2017: Over the last 30 days, the price correlation for the average S&P sector to the market as a whole is 0.75. In 2017, it was 0.55. That’s the difference between an r-squared of 56% now to 30% last year. In other words, the daily move in the S&P 500 “explains” +50% of any sector’s one-day price action now versus just 30% last year.
    2. Current correlation levels give a better picture of investor uncertainty than current VIX readings, which have declined of late: Correlations always spike during periods of market volatility such as earlier this year, but unlike the CBOE VIX Index they don’t typically fall quickly after a shock. Unwinding correlations takes longer because they more accurately reflect market uncertainty about longer-term macro factors like Fed interest rate policy, geopolitical concerns, financial stability, and long term interest rates. The VIX captures 30 days of expected volatility, after all, not 30 months.
    3. It’s not just US sector correlations that remain high: International equities, both in developed and emerging economies, are still clustering in terms of daily price performance around the S&P 500. The correlation between the US equity market and the MSCI EAFE developed market index was 0.83 last month, down only modestly from the 0.92 – 0.95 readings of the last 3 months. MSCI Emerging Market equity correlations to the S&P 500 ran 0.80 last month, down from 0.88 – 0.91.

    Bringing this analysis home to three investment insights:

    1. Don’t be lulled into a sense of false security now that the VIX is back to 13 and everything feels more “Normal”. Still-high correlations mean even small shocks will quickly transmit through to equity markets. We remain positive on US stocks for 2018, but the correlation math is clear. This isn’t 2017, with industry groups charting their own path and smoothing out the market bumps.
    2. Financials and Energy stocks are better positioned than most groups to show both less-correlated and positive returns. Consider two of the largest macro market concerns today: rising oil prices and higher long term interest rates. Should those eventually crimp economic growth, the best equity hedge will come through exposure to these groups. In our last reader survey (dated 3/30), Financials and Energy were 2 groups DataTrek readers favored most (along with Tech). We continue to agree with that sentiment.
    3. For those with long investment horizons (5 years plus): the return of high correlations in 2018 after last year’s decline is an important signal. Most long run asset allocation models use decades of price correlations to arrive at recommendations for equity/fixed income/other portfolio weights. The last 10 years may look like an anomaly there, with high correlations caused by the Financial Crisis and its aftermath. What if, however, it is the new normal condition? If so, that would argue for greater allocations to alternative assets in order to achieve better diversification in the future.

    Bottom line: stocks seem to have found their footing but this correlation data says we’re not out of the woods.

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 12th May 2018

  • The Worst Man In Modern History

    Authored by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,

    It seems extraordinary that in defiance of all factual history and philosophical knowledge anyone should celebrate the bicentenary of the birth of Karl Marx. More than anyone, through wrong-headed ideas, he bears responsibility, indirectly admittedly, for the deaths of an estimated one hundred million people in the last century, and the severe suppression though economic and social servitude of fully one third of the world’s population. And if you also include those who have suffered under the yoke of Marxist-inspired modern socialism, the philosophy that says the state is more important than the individual, you could argue nearly the whole world is influenced by Marxian philosophy today.

    That might seem an extreme statement, but you only have to ask almost anyone anywhere, which do they consider is more important, the individual or the state, to see if this supposition is correct. The only explanation for the continued adoration of the man is that with such universal influence, there are bound to be legions of supporters remaining, ignorant of and blind to the reality. However, during his lifetime – he died in 1883 – he was hardly known. It wasn’t until the Russian revolution thirty-four years later that Marx began to be taken seriously.

    How did Marx achieve this powerful posthumous position? It was not through his economics, though they are often quoted and form the core principles of his Communist Manifesto, but through his philosophy, old ideas from forgotten men such as Hegel (1770-1831), which he rehashed into a socialist philosophy that is still accepted by many today, despite the accumulated evidence against it. The difference with Hegel is Hegel strove to establish that historical evolution would lead to increasing individual freedom, while Marx strove to prove the individual played no role in historical evolution.

    Hegel argued that all reality is capable of being expressed in rational categories and can be reduced to a synthetic unity by dialectic reasoning within a system of absolute idealism. In plain English, he concluded we all take our cue from our social and cultural surroundings and circumstances, and that they in turn are set by historical events. This became the basis for Marx’s extreme philosophy of class structure, which, in common with Hegel, denied any role to the independence of human thought.

    His philosophical stance was comprehensively set out in his book, A Contribution to the Critique of Political Economy, published in 1859. The fundamental principle behind Marxism is stated early in the preface, where he defines his deduction from the Hegelian dialectic: “It is not the consciousness of men that determines their existence, but their social existence that determines their consciousness.” In other words, social organisation takes precedence over the individual, and it therefore follows that the individual is subordinate to the social organisation.

    It follows from this logic, Marx argued, that the classes that formed on the back of material interests forces members of those classes to think and act in their narrow class interests and not independently in their personal interest, there being no such thing. For Marx, ideologies evolved on class lines, where the interests of the minority, the bourgeoisie, dominated. And as the bourgeoisie profits from the labour of the proletariat, it is in their interest to keep the proletariat suppressed. The accumulation of wealth in the hands of the bourgeoisie was entirely due to the exploitation of the proletariat.

    Marx’s world was a black and white one of haves and have-nots, the exploiters and the exploited. As Emmanuel Kant (1724-1804) had said, “If one man has more than necessary, another man has less”. The only way this apparent wrong could be righted would be through the collapse of the capitalist system, which led to these imbalances in the first place. The final solution was a classless society of the proletariat, handing them the means of production administered on their behalf by a revolutionary government.

    If proof was needed, it came for Marx in the increasingly disruptive economic slumps over the course of his lifetime. Slumps hit the proletariat hardest, leading to unemployment and starvation. Initially, Marx was convinced that with the slumps getting progressively worse, a communist revolution would eventually be triggered, and the socialists (i.e. Marx himself) would take command from capitalist governments on behalf of the proletariat. Unfortunately for Marx, this never happened, and he increasingly turned in favour of a violent revolution to hasten the ultimate solution, reflecting his growing impatience and desperation.

    Above all, Marx despised, even hated other socialists with an irrationality that can only have been fuelled by fear of competition. This hatred remains with us today, with communists loathing all forms of national socialism. Marx’s line of reasoning also freed him from criticism, because dissenters were always labelled bourgeoise, and were therefore dismissed as arguing on class lines. They were unmasked as bourgeoise, whatever their dissenting view, and therefore not qualified to comment on matters that affected the wider proletariat. The only answer was for the bourgeoisie to join the proletariat or to be made to do so, then their interests would be forcibly aligned.

    We cannot gloss over the inconsistencies here, where on the one hand the bourgeoisie can only pursue a rigid class interest, yet its members are capable of the independent interest required to migrate to another class. And we must also mention that Marx himself, along with his supporter Engels, was a member of his so-called bourgeoisie, so according to his own strict doctrine, was unable or unqualified to align himself to the proletarian interest.

    Marxian dogma was riddled with such inconsistences. Partly, this was due to the state of human knowledge at that time, and which formed the basis of any dialectical debate. Darwin contemporaneously proposed his evolutionary theory, pronouncing that humans evolved from the apes, and therefore were merely a higher form of animal, not a species apart favoured by God. This played neatly into Marxian philosophy.

    It was also before the development of psychology by Sigmund Freud and Josef Breuer. It was believed that all human brains were the same, just as we have other internal organs with specific functions within the corpus. The concept, that humans differed in their intelligence, their acuity, was unknown. Even mental illness was believed to be a disorder emanating from the body. To Marx the philosopher, drawing on Hegel’s dialectical approach, it could have seemed logical that we are all the same, and that the obvious social differences are down to our upbringing in one or the other class.

    He never defined class, which is too slippery a concept to pin down. Instead, he separated humanity into the exploited majority, the proletariat, and the minority that controls the proletariat, the bourgeoisie. He expected the proletariat to eventually rebel, forcing the bourgeoisie into the lower class, to be ruled over by a socialist administration. He believed that this would happen, because under capitalism, the impoverishment of the workers was inevitable, leading to a workers’ revolution. Yet, at the same time, he believed in the iron law of wages, most associated with David Ricardo. According to this law, wages were set by the availability of labour and the payments required to subsist. Higher wages than this basic level would lead to an increase in the availability of labour over time, while lower wages would reduce the labour pool. In this way, the cost of labour was expected to rebalance at a subsistence level. Labour was regarded as a simple commodity, whose supply was regulated by its demand. However, Marx’s belief in the iron law of wages is at odds with his supposition that the proletariat would be gradually impoverished. You cannot subscribe to both.

    Subsequent improvements in economic knowledge have disproved both theories anyway. Marx’s approach was to arrogantly assume workers are unthinking work-slaves, which they are not. They are individuals with individual aspirations, and as Freud and Breuer showed later, they have brains separate from the corpus, with individual mental abilities that govern the corpus. Marx even despised the trade unions of the day, arguing that striking for higher wages was colluding with members of the bourgeoisie by negotiating with them, when instead they should be seeking their destruction. His thinking had evolved from the proposition that the destruction of the bourgeoise class would occur naturally in time, to encouraging a violent class revolution to bring it about. Workers going on strike compromised both alternatives.

    Marx also cooked up a theory of dialectical materialism, a concept based on Hegelian dialectics and the materialist philosophy of Ludwig von Feuerbach (1804-72), whereby the material productive forces were meant to propel society through the class struggle towards socialism. Materialism, in this sense, is the doctrine that all changes are brought about by material entities, processes and events, and that all human ideas, choices and value-judgements can be reduced to material causes, which one day will be explained by the natural sciences.

    Marx, the man, and Engels, his financial backer, came from the bourgeoisie, and had nothing in common with the proletariat. Their motivation was fundamentally dishonest. After expecting the destruction of the bourgeoisie through an evolution out of capitalism, they actively sought a violent revolution, and there can be little doubt that they impatiently expected to emerge as the leaders of the new order. They despised other socialists, who were seen as rivals. Far more famous in Marx’s time was Ferdinand Lassalle (1824-64), who shared the basic Hegelian philosophy, but helped Bismarck defeat the liberals in Prussia. To Marx, this cooperation with a government was anathema, just as national socialism was to Marxists in the next century.

    To Marx, world communism could only have one leader and other socialists must be denounced. As von Mises wryly put it, the worst thing for a socialist is to be ruled by a socialist who is not your friend.

    Marx and Engels despised both nationalism and national socialism, because they sought a global revolution so there was no place for national characteristics or cooperation with governments. It was, in effect, their bid for world domination, cooked up in the reading room of the British Library. A decade after the Communist manifesto was published, Marx stopped advocating peaceful revolution, in favour of civil war in all countries to destroy the bourgeoise class. Marx and Engels sought to provoke and benefit from it. The plotting with Engels increasingly took that direction and Engels studied military science in preparation for his role as commander-in-chief.

    Despite Marx’s theories and subsequent plotting with Engels, Marxism was exposed by events, even from the outset, as a failure. In the years following the publication of the Communist Manifesto until his death in 1883, despite the boom and bust cycles following the middle of that century, the lot of the proletariat improved immeasurably. Something was going horribly wrong with Marxist predictions, and the chief architect had passed away into obscurity. He had, however, set the template for Lenin, who took up the Marxist banner with the Russian revolution thirty-four years later.

    We now know what happened, though much of it was kept from us until the Berlin Wall was dismantled. Just as Marx strove for a global communist revolution, destroying nation states as well as the bourgeoisie, Lenin had the same Marxian objective. It persisted into the post-war era, with the annexation of Eastern Europe, and persistent attempts to undermine Western Europe. Soviet spies were everywhere. Not only did we have the Cambridge five, and left-wing economics professors promoting socialism in the top universities, but even Harry Dexter-White, a very senior US Treasury official who founded the IMF and the World Bank, was a Soviet spy.

    Marx was a dead-beat plotter, who should have simply sunk into obscurity. But like Keynes in the following century, he made his half-truths sound eminently plausible. His training as a philosopher imparted a respectability to his theories. Even at his graveside, Engels eulogised him thus:

    “Just as Darwin discovered the law of development or organic nature, so Marx discovered the law of development of human history: the simple fact, hitherto concealed by an overgrowth of ideology, that mankind must first of all eat, drink, have shelter and clothing, before it can pursue politics, science, art, religion, etc….”

    How can you not respect, even adulate a man expressed in these terms? You cannot say that a philosopher, who discovered the law of development of human history, who recognised that man needs food, water, shelter and clothing is wrong, or bad. This is in strict contrast with the title of this short essay, that Marx was the worst man in modern history. If it hadn’t been for developments long after his death, this epitaph would not be worth challenging. There have been far worse perpetrators of human misery in their lifetimes, with a roll call that goes back to the beginning of recorded history.

    No, the reason Marx was a thoroughly bad man, even evil, was he plotted not just the domination of one country, but the whole world by advocating the destructive forces of civil violence. He was a poor parody of a Bond villain. And as is the case with all socialists, he wanted total domination. You could take the view that he was a latter-day Don Quixote, delusional and mad, and that Engels was a sort of financial Sancho Panza without the wit. This would be incorrect. Marx was a failure as a philosopher, and instead of rethinking and recanting, he moved from a position of preparing himself for a leading role in what he saw as inevitable, to advocating violent social destruction.

    It was Marx’s wrong-headed philosophy that led to the deaths of a hundred million souls, perpetrated by those he inspired, as well as the enslavement of most of the population of the Eurasian land-mass. And if we are to identify his catastrophic error in the simplest terms, it was the brief sentence in the preface to his A Contribution to the Critique of Political Economy, referred to above. If instead he had correctly concluded that,

    “It is the consciousness of men that determines their existence, and not their social existence”

    the world would be a far better place today, with ordinary people free to have delivered economic progress to their fellow men and women without bearing the burden of Marx’s failed philosophies.

    He is my nomination for the worst man in the modern history of humanity, and we should remember this and only this on the bicentenary of his birth.
     

  • US Public Support For Iran Deal Reaches All-Time High

    Since the implementation of the Iran Deal, especially Conservative Americans have been in strong opposition to the lifting of sanctions against the Middle Eastern state.

    It had been one of Trump’s electoral pledges to either renegotiate or abandon the heavily criticized agreement between Iran, the members of the UN Security Council and Germany.

    As Iran rejected any renegotiations, the president soon favored to nix the agreement and reimpose sanctions, and this week President Trump officially withdrew from the Iran agreement. As Statista’s Patrick Wagner notes, through the so-called snapback mechanism, a whole battery of sanctions will immediately come into effect again.

    However, as this graphic shows, President Trump does not have a lot of public support for his decision…

    Infographic: U.S. Public Support for Iran Deal at All-Time High | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Since its implementation, citizens increasingly favored the agreement, reaching an all-time high before Donald Trump abandoned it.

    Is this just more #RESISTance? We wonder just how many of those survey respondents know anything about the actual deal? And what suddenly accounts for the surge in support in the last few weeks?

  • Army Major Warns Don't Poke The Dragon, War With China Would Be An Unnecessary Disaster

    Authored by Major Danny Sjursen via AntiWar.com,

    The Non-Options: 4 Wars the Military Prepares for But Shouldn’t Fight: Volume II

    There’s nothing military men like more than obsessively training for wars they will never have to fight. The trick is not to stumble into a conflict that no one will win.

    Let’s everyone take a breath. Yes, China presents a potential threat to American interests in the economic, cyber, and naval realms. The U.S. must maintain a credible defensive and expeditionary posture and be prepared for a worst case scenario. What we don’t need is to blunder into a regional, or, worse still, all-out war with the Chinese dragon. Not now, probably not ever.

    And yet, in Washington today, and within the Trump administration in particular, alarmism seems the name of the game. This is risky, and, ultimately, dangerous. In his 2018 National Defense Strategy, Secretary of Defense Mattis, a known hawk, refers to Russia and China as “revisionist powers,” and announces that the US military must now pivot to “great power” competition. Look, I’m all for extricating our overstretched armed forces from the Middle East and de-escalating the never-ending, counterproductive “war on terror.” What doesn’t make sense, is the reflexive assumption that (maybe) dialing down one war, must translate into ramping up for other, more perilous, wars with nuclear-armed powerhouses like Russia or China.

    The usual laundry list of Chinese threats is well-known: China is (how dare they!) building a sizable blue-water navy and (gasp!) patrolling around sandy islands in the South China Sea. They conduct cyber-attacks (so do we) and steal intellectual property. They are planning a new “Silk Road” to integrate much of Eurasia into a China-centric trade and transportation system. No doubt, some of those items may be cause for measured concern, but none of the listed “infractions” warrants war!

    Bottom line: China, like Russia, possesses neither the capacity nor intent for global domination or the subjugation of the United States. Period.

    Let’s start with the capacity problem. China has a growing military. That is to be expected of one of the world’s top-two economies and a nation with more than 1 billion people. Don’t act so surprised. Still, China spends only one thirdas much as the US on defense. It has one leaky, outdated former Russian aircraft carrier and is building a few more. The US has about a dozen and our local Asian partners (India, Japan, Australia, and South Korea) – count another nine between them.

    China has 14 foreign powers – some hostile – on its land borders. One of those is Russia, with whom the Chinese have a long history of border disputes. The last thing the US should want to do is drive those two unnatural allies into each other’s arms with overly bellicose rhetoric and military posturing. Another Chinese neighbor is India, which is strengthening its own military and also has 1+ billion citizens (and a much higher birthrate than China).

    Then there’s the intent issue. China is not after global domination and no longer possesses a true internationalist communist ideology. It wants regionalsuperiority and a measure of global respect to make up for its perceived (and actual) embarrassment by European and American imperialists in the 19th and early 20th centuries. It wants a powerful trade block across Eurasia and a measure of control of its own “lake” – the South China Sea. Is that so unreasonable? The US has outright supremacy in its bordering seas, such as the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and Eastern Pacific. The US military has even sponsored coups and conducted outright invasions of nearby islands that didn’t sufficiently march to Washington’s tune.

    Switch places with Chinese leader Xi Jinping for a moment. How would Trump(or Obama) respond, if the Chinese insisted they had a right to supremacy in the Caribbean? My guess: outright war.

    Finally, there are the reasons not to fight, the reasons why a war would be catastrophic for both sides. China is huge, both in landmass and population(of 1.3 billion!). We’ve all heard the (accurate) trope warning against starting a land war in Asia. There’s good reason for that. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is huge and is capable of bogging the relatively small, all-volunteer US military in a nightmarish quagmire.

    Nor could the US count on an easy projection of its naval and airpower into, say, the Taiwan Strait. China (and other competitors) have invested heavily in A2AD (Anti-Access, Area-Denial) systems that could thwart such attempts, inflict heavy casualties, or, at the least, maintain standoff. This would force the US military to preemptively escalate with attacks on Chinese homeland defenses. There is very little opportunity, therefore, to wage a limited war. Any fight with China will force the US”all-in” as a matter of course.

    Furthermore, China’s booming and growing economy is both its strength and a sort of financial doomsday device. The US, European, and Chinese economies are by now inextricably linked. Hot war means trade war; and that would likely result in a cataclysmic global financial collapse. The US military is the most well-funded and equipped force on earth. Still, the backbone and foundation of that military rests with the power of the US economy. A new crash and potential depression would permanently damage our economy (along with China’s, no doubt).

    Most importantly, China maintains an arsenal of at least 250 nuclear warheads. That’s a drop in the bucket compared to America’s 6000+ weapons, but more than enough to deter any serious invasion. Here’s the trick: never to fight a nuclear power, so long as it can be avoided. Anything else is insanity – ever heard of Nuclear Winter? Yea, it’s a real thing! The lesson: tread lightly, be cautious, and avoid unnecessary brinksmanship. That’s called statesmanship, something the US seems to have forgotten about these last 17 years.

    Truth is, most of this threat inflation is really about cooking the books to justify gross overspending and a profits bonanza for the military-industrial complex. That’s a concern in itself, because a $700+ billion military budget is unsustainable, requiring either tough cuts to domestic programs, increased taxes, a ballooning national debt – or all of the above.

    The real danger, though, is military brinksmanship. And the inescapable fog of war. It’s not impossible to imagine a dispute in the distant South China Sea (7000 miles from California) resulting in combat and casualties between the US and China. This could quickly escalate out of control. And remember, we both have loads of nuclear weapons!

    It’s time to realistically weigh US interests, display some humility and craft a sober strategy for the Pacific. The sea coast of China cannot forever remain an “American lake.” We would never accept a foreign power in the Caribbean and can’t expect China – with over a billion citizens and a growing economy – to cede their local waters to a distant American Navy in perpetuity.

    The US must appeal to local Asian partners based on our (ostensible) shared values of open trade and open society – a challenge to the more authoritarian Chinese value system. After all, soft power goes a long way, especially when all-out war is a non-option! That, of course, will require more consistency from the US We’ll have to walk the walk on our values and quit backing our “partners’” military campaigns – Saudis in Yemen, Israel in Gaza, etc. – when they often add up to veritable war crimes.

    Remember, we owe the Chinese a lot of money. That gives them leverage, but it also gives us leverage. They want to be paid back and Beijing knows it needs the American market for its goods. Besides, our economies are actually highly intertwined. XI doesn’t want a major war with the US He is playing the long game, a chess match as compared to our bumbling checkers!

    If there is a war in the Pacific with nuclear-armed China it will most likely not be of XI’s doing. Only American hubris can lead to what would inevitably be a disastrous war.

    Given our recent track record – an Icarus-syndrome par excellence – that seems frighteningly likely.

    *  *  *

    Read The Non-Options: 4 Wars the Military Prepares for But Shouldn’t Fight, Volume I

    Danny Sjursen is a US Army officer and regular contributor to Antiwar.com. He served combat tours with reconnaissance units in Iraq and Afghanistan and later taught history at his alma mater, West Point. He is the author of a memoir and critical analysis of the Iraq War, Ghostriders of Baghdad: Soldiers, Civilians, and the Myth of the Surge. Follow him on Twitter at @SkepticalVet.

  • China Builds Warning System To Detect Earthquakes 3 Weeks In Advance

    China is building a monitoring system that will help it predict earthquakes up to three weeks in advance, according to a story in the Global Times, a mouthpiece for China’s Communist Party. The machinery will monitor for upcoming quakes by measuring “X-ray” or “CT scanners” which create an image of seismic activity.

    “The real-time image generated from sensors will help the public forecast earthquake of magnitude above 5.0 as easily as reading a meteorological cloud image,” the Global Times said.

    The technology will first be implemented in China’s Sichuan and Yunnan provinces in the country’s southwest, where some of China’s most devastating earthquakes have taken place. After that, it will then be rolled out across the country. Eventually, the sensors will be placed at 2,000 monitoring stations across the earthquake-prone region.

    China

    The equipment will monitor for “stress and energy dynamics” between eight and 20 kilometers underground, according to Dr Wang Tun. Typically, the most destructive quakes originate more than 8 kilometers below the earth’s surface. While China already has an early earthquake warning system, it only covers 650 million people – about half the country’s population – and can only detect quakes seconds before they occur by measuring so-called “P-waves”. During one recent quake in Chengdu, the capitol of Sichuan province, citizens received messages on their mobile phones some 71 seconds beforehand.

    Schools received the warnings some five to 38 seconds before the quake struck.

    Eventually, the current EEW system and the new more advanced system will work in tandem, because the new monitoring system can’t predict the exact timing of a quake, according to Wang.

    “And it only can tell a rough location instead of an exact site where the earthquake will occur.”

    The first station for the new system was unveiled in Wenchuan, Sichuan this past week. The town was the epicenter of a 7.9 magnitude quake that killed 80,000 people back in 2008.

  • Mapping Erik Prince's Private Mercenary Empire

    Authored by Ty Joplin via Albawaba.com,

    • Erik Prince is the modern architect of private military firms

    • His latest venture is in training security personnel in China

    • But he’s been all over the world, outsourcing militaries to cheap labor markets

    • Al Bawaba has provided a partial map to track Erik Prince’s activities over the years

    Erik Prince, the brain behind the infamous private military firm Blackwater, is now in China training security forces.

    Prince is partially responsible for modernizing the private army for the post 9/11 world, outsourcing militaries to cheap, specialized labor pools and skirting traditional regulations meant to ensure accountability for armed forces.

    His journey from hiring mercenaries to help bolster the U.S. occupation in Iraq to China is long, dizzying and includes stops around the world to train Colombian mercenaries to help make a private army for the U.A.E. and outfitting crop duster planes with missiles to be fired at Armenians.

    He has become a global figure, roaming between conflicts zones to sell various governments his expertise on private armies.

    To document his journey thus far, Al Bawaba has compiled a partial list of countries/regions in or for which he has done business.

     

    United States

    Prince’s trip around the world starts in the United States.

    Born in an affluent Michigan family, his family maintained deep ties to the Republican establishment and several conservative, religious organizations like American Values. His sister, Betsy DeVos, married into one of the most influence political families in the Midwest, the DeVos’s, and began helping to run the Republican party machine in Michigan.

    That marriage, which tied the Prince and DeVos family together, has given Erik unprecedented political access into the federal government. His list of close allies including Steve Bannon, U.S. President Donald Trump’s former chief strategist. His sister gives him a direct line of access to Trump himself.

    Erik became a Navy SEAL and then established his own private military firm in 1997, Blackwater.

    Once the U.S. invaded Iraq in 2003, Blackwater received billions in contracts from the U.S. government to help supplement the official mission with private boots on the ground, relatively free from accountability or laws from any particular government.

    Iraq

    Damaged and bloodied car in Nissour Square, Iraq, 2007 after the Blackwater massacre (AFP/FILE)

    Blackwater’s activities in Iraq are infamous and account for Prince’s self-imposed exile from the United States.

    Apart from harassing Iraqi civilians and running them off of roads with their armored personnel carriers, they also indiscriminately gunned down 14 innocent people in Baghdad in 2007, drawing an investigation and heavy criticism from media outlets around the world.

    The incident stands as a cautionary tale for when mercenary groups such as Blackwater are able to operate without sufficient legal or logistical oversight. Facing a wave of scrutiny, Prince left Blackwater and the firm changed its name twice (to Xe and then Academi) to escape the heat.

    Many thought they had seen the end of Erik Prince, but he resurfaced later at the helm of a different private military company.

    U.A.E.

    A satellite image of the camp in the U.A.E.  built to train Prince’s 800-member mercenary battalion (Google Earth/New York Times)

    In 2011, Erik Prince was appointed by the crown prince of Abu Dhabi to make a secret, private army. For this, he was paid $529 million.

    In documents obtained by the New York Times, the mission of this privately commissioned battalion included “intelligence gathering, urban combat, the securing of nuclear and radioactive materials, humanitarian missions and special operations ‘to destroy enemy personnel and equipment,’ and crown-control.

    Prince hired Colombians and nationals of other countries thousands of miles away to fill his ranks from two reasons. First, Prince was looking to pay them as little as possible. Second, they weren’t Muslims. Prince surmised that Muslims could not be trusted to kill other Muslims.

    A few years later in 2015, Saudi Arabia began its military intervention in Yemen and recruited a host of other Arab nations to join its coalition. Abu Dhabi’s crown prince, business partner to Erik Prince, Sheik Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, signed up for the cause in order to destroy any creeping Iranian influence in the war-torn nation.

    Yemen

    Erik Prince and his U.A.E. private military firm helped recruit and train over 1,000 soldiers from Latin American countries. Then, their bodies started appearing on battlefields in Yemen.

    A single missile reportedly killed 45 mercenaries from the U.A.E.

    Prince’s initial battalion of 800 soldiers had blossomed into almost 2,000 specialized troops hired mostly from Latin America to do the U.A.E.’s business.

    Although officials say Erik Prince’s formal business role with the U.A.E. had ended several years before the intervention into Yemen, his corporate blueprint to partially outsource the U.A.E.’s military is doubtlessly still in use.

    The U.A.E. keeping and even expanding Prince’s blueprint for a private, outsourced army demonstrates just how influencial he and his mercenary business model has become.

    Azerbaijan

    A militarily-modified crop duster, called the T-Bird (LASA Engineering)

    After his stint in the U.A.E., Prince began doing more business with Chinese executives at the Frontier Services Group (FSG), which he heads.

    On this new enterprise, Prince said it “is not a patriotic endeavor,” rather, it is intended “to build a great business and make some money doing it.”

    Interestingly enough, Prince’s business with FSG took him to Azerbaijan, where he was paid by the government to help it deal with its Armenian problem. Armenians are concentrated into Azerbaijan’s Nagorno-Karabakh region, which seceded from Azerbaijan and formed a semi-recognized, de facto state.

    Azerbaijan called on Erik Prince and FSG to help it keep watch on the Nagorno-Karabakh region, also called the Republic of Artsakh. In response. Prince wanted to show the government two crop duster planes meant for agricultural use but refitted for military purposes. The planes were meant to be outfitted with state-of-the-art surveillance technology and were supposedly able to fire missiles.

    They never made it to Azerbaijan after an investigation shut the sale down.

    This is because the deal may have broken several laws. The Washington Post found that “executives were concerned that the company might be skirting U.S. law — known as International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) — requiring Americans to obtain special permits before defense-related technology can be transferred to foreign countries.”

    In response to this controversial arms trade, all but two Americans on the FSG executive board quit due to concerns that he was not serving U.S. interests. This has freed Prince to deal more closely with the Chinese.

    Eastern Africa

    FSG’s ‘focus region’ (Frontier Services Group)

    FSG’s public focus is on providing security and logistical help to eastern African countries such as South Sudan, Kenya, Somalia and the DRC.

    “When you want logistics done in Africa, you call DHL,” said Sean McFate, a former military contractor in Africa and current expert on mercenaries at the Atlantic Council. “When you want muscle, you call Erik Prince.”

    One of FSG’s ventures appears to help oust the extremist militant group, Al Shabaab, from southwest Somalia—an area it has largely controlled for years. “We have brought together strong international business leaders to team-up with talented Somali entrepreneurs to make development in South West Somalia a reality,” an FSG statement reads.

    “The project will include an integrated solution of air-land-sea logistics capabilities and advanced security management.”

    China

    FSG’s headquarters is in Hong Kong, and though it publicly states that its focus is on eastern Africa, FSG is now reported to be doing domestic work on behalf of the Chinese government.

    FSG is partially owned by CITIC, a Chinese-government own investment firm. CITIC is slowly taking more and more control of FSG and is reportedly already the dominant shareholder, meaning it has greater power than Prince to determine the company’s vision and business deals.

    “The Chinese are gradually taking more control” of the company. CITIC is now playing a larger role as Frontier’s dominant shareholder, said Xin who heads the International Security Defense College that trains security personnel and is overseen by FSG.

    “Prince’s share is decreasing. The Chinese are in charge, so it won’t matter.”

    One of FSG’s most recent missions has been to train thousands of security personnel in China’s northwest Xinjiang province, where millions of ethnically Turkic Muslims called Uyghurs live.

    Uyghurs are routinely targeted by the state due to continuous attempts by some to break away from China and form an independent state.

    Thousands of Uyghurs are part of an extremist group called the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP), whose leaders are hiding in Pakistan and whose members have a heavy presence in Syria fighting against the Syrian regime.

    Human Rights Watch accused the Chinese government of “deploying a predictive policing program,” using massive surveillance technology and a web of high-tech surveillance cameras and compulsory data collection.

    They’ve also reportedly sent thousands of Uyghurs to Chinese ‘re-education’ camps.

    The Mercenary Prince

    Erik Prince (AFP/FILE)

    This list only details a few of Erik Prince’s ventures, and does not include an attempt by Prince to send thousands of mercenaries into Afghanistan and reform the political structure of the entire country to essentially be a colony for the United States.

    However, Prince has transformed battlefields everywhere and fundamentally altered the way governments construct security apparatuses.

    Iran is heavily reliant on outsourced Afghani mercenaries to be cannon fodder in the war in Syria. Russia is supplementing its own intervention into Syria with mercenaries hired by the state-backed Wagner Group who also sends troops to Ukraine. To beat back the nascent extremist group Boko Haram, Nigeria hired private, Apartheid-era security forces from South Africa to do the job.

    Thanks to Erik Prince, outsourcing military and intelligence labor is now the norm. 

    Currently Prince appears to be under investigation by Special Counsel Robert Mueller, thanks to meetings he had arranged with a close aide to Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, Kirill Dmitriev in the Seychelles Islands, a place its own government explains is “the kind of place where you can have a good time away from the media.” The meeting was allegedley to set up a backchannel between Trump and Russia in order to facilitate clandestine communications.

    McFate told Al Bawaba that Prince’s use of mercenaries allows countries to enter into and escalate conflicts without having to report it to their citizens; his tactic gives governments “plausible deniability” to anything that the mercenaries do.

    According to Dr. P.J. Brendese, a professor at Johns Hopkins University and expert on democratic accountability, private military firms “have greater independence to exercise their own prerogatives and ‘we the people’ don’t get a say. That’s the most dangerous thing, because they’re profiting–their motivation is not God and country; their motive is money.”

  • Boston Dynamics Unveils "Terrifying" Robot That Can Run, Jump And Climb

    The robot uprising is right on schedule as evidenced by Boston Dynamics’ latest “nightmare inducing” videos of their autonomous creations. In one, their humanoid robot Atlas can be seen running through a field as if in hot pursuit of John Connor, while another video shows “spot mini” prancing around – going up and down stairs, ominously. 

    “During the autonomous run, SpotMini uses data from the cameras to localize itself in the map and to detect and avoid obstacles,” reads the video description.

    Once the operator presses ‘GO’ at the beginning of the video, the robot is on its own.”

    This can’t be good…

    And after suffering years of abuse at the hands of Boston Dynamics engineers, one wonders exactly what sentient future robots will think when they see this: 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Even Boston Dynamics founder, Marc Raibert, admitted that the robots are creepy in a February 2017 demonstration of a wheeled robot, saying “This is the debut presentation of what I think will be a nightmare-inducing robot if you’re anything like me.

    The company was sold by Google to Japanese tech conglomerate SoftBank for an undisclosed sum last year, and has not revealed its plans. Needless to say, Japan is now making robots that may or may not be able to be equipped with shoulder-mounted lasers and miniguns, and are most definitely kamikaze.

    Dear Boston Dynamics – do you want the Matrix? Because this is how you get the Matrix. 

  • We're All Trespassers Now In The Face Of The Government's Land Grabs

    Authored by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    We have no real property rights.

    Think about it. 

    That house you live in, the car you drive, the small (or not so small) acreage of land that has been passed down through your family or that you scrimped and saved to acquire, whatever money you manage to keep in your bank account after the government and its cronies have taken their first and second and third cut…none of it is safe from the government’s greedy grasp.

    At no point do you ever have any real ownership in anything other than the clothes on your back.

    Everything else can be seized by the government under one pretext or another (civil asset forfeiture, unpaid taxes, eminent domain, public interest, etc.).

    The American Dream has been reduced to a lease arrangement in which we are granted the privilege of endlessly paying out the nose for assets that are only ours so long as it suits the government’s purposes.

    And when it doesn’t suit the government’s purposes? Watch out.

    This is not a government that respects the rights of its citizenry or the law. Rather, this is a government that sells its citizens to the highest bidder and speaks to them in a language of force.

    Under such a fascist regime, the Fifth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, which declares that no person shall “be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor shall private property be taken for public use, without just compensation,” has become yet another broken shield, incapable of rendering any protection against corporate greed while allowing the government to justify all manner of “takings” in the name of the public good.

    Practically anything goes now.

    Relying on the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2005 ruling in Kelo v. City of New Londonentire neighborhoods have been seized and bulldozed to make way for shopping malls, sports complexes and corporate offices.

    Indeed, little has prevented the government from bulldozing its way through the Fifth Amendment in an effort to take from the middle and lower classes and fatten the coffers of the corporate elite.

    For instance, consider the government’s pipeline projects.

    All across the country, power companies have been given the green light to build massive gas and oil pipelines that crisscross the country, cutting through private and public lands, as well as unspoiled wilderness.

    “Yet despite oft-repeated claims by politicians and oil executives about the danger of relying on foreign oil, this U.S. petroleum renaissance never was designed to make America energy self-sufficient,” points out journalist Sandy Tolan. “A growing amount of that oil will end up in China, Japan, the Netherlands, even Venezuela.”

    So much for the public use, huh?

    These pipeline projects which are getting underway in a dozen states have stirred up a hornet’s nest of protests. Not all of the protests that have arisen in response to these pipeline projects hinge on environmental concerns. 

    Some of the protesters are landowners, simple farmers and homeowners who merely want the government and its corporate partners-in-crime to keep their grubby paws off their personal property.

    In Virginia, for instance, activists have taken to tree sitting—living for weeks on end in platforms suspended above the ground in trees—as a form of protest over the devastation that is being wrought by these pipelines.

    These acts of civil disobedience come at a costly price.

    Pipeline and forestry officials have been working hard to make life as difficult as possible for the protesters, allegedly blocking their access to food and water and medical supplies, shining floodlights into the trees at all hours of the night, creating ground disturbances to dislodge their nests, and urging the courts to levy heavy fines for each day that the work to clear the forests for the pipeline is delayed.

    Here’s what one resident of Roanoke, Va., wrote to me about the manner in which the Mountain Valley Pipeline is being inflicted on his community:

    Our small community has been invaded by private security and a fully militarized local police department. Mountain Valley Pipeline has begun cutting trees and has brought in private military contractors similar to what was used in North Dakota. They are basically using the power of government to steal this land for private profit. The residents and land owners of Bent Mountain now find themselves subject to arrest for walking in their own driveway, taking pictures of the pipeline companies ever-changing survey lines and path of destruction, or in more than one case, for confronting MASKED ARMED MEN ON THEIR PROPERTY IN THE DEAD OF NIGHT. One of my neighbors was accosted on his own back porch by police for photographing the MVP surveyors continually moving the corridor of their easement. I have even had armed private security trespassing on my property miles away in neighboring Floyd County.

    It takes a lot of gall to trespass onto someone’s private property, tear up their land, cut down their trees, pollute their air and water, prevent them from moving freely on their own property, threaten them with fines and arrests for challenging the intrusion, and then force them to pay (by way of taxes) to retain ownership of the property or sell it cheaply or at a loss so it can be torn down and used for some purpose that the government deems more beneficial to its bottom line.

    That’s how little respect the government has for our rights.

    Unfortunately, American taxpayers have become trespassers on their own property thanks to the government’s ongoing land grabs and utter disregard for property rights.

    More than 200 years after early Americans went to war over their right to life, liberty and property, “we the people” have been reduced to little more than serfs in bondage, indentured servants, and sharecroppers. And the lines between private and public property have been so blurred that private property is reduced to little more than something the government can use to control, manipulate and harass you to suit its own purposes, and you the homeowner and citizen have been reduced to little more than a tenant in bondage to an inflexible landlord.

    So where does that leave us?

    As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, the battle to protect our private property has become the final constitutional frontier, the last holdout against our freedoms being usurped.

    After all, the American dream is about gaining sovereignty over one’s life and property. Without this sovereignty – this unshakeable guarantee of ownership and dominion, even over one’s own life – there can be no true liberty or freedom. 

  • Meanwhile, At A Bar In Tehran…

    Another (legacy deal) bites the dust…

     

    Source: MichealPRamirez.com

  • The 2017 Statistics Just Came Out… And The "War On Cops" Is Officially A Myth

    Authored Carey Wedler via TheAntiMedia.com,

    Though right-wing commentators continue to decry the ‘war on cops,’ the latest data released by the country’s top law enforcement undermines that alarmist narrative.

    According to the FBI’s annual Law Enforcement Officers Killed and Assaulted report, released this week, there were fewer police deaths in 2017 than in 2016. In 2016, 118 law enforcement officers died in the line of duty while in 2017, that number was 93.

    More telling is the type of death the officers suffered. Last year, 46 officers were killed “feloniously” on the job while 47 died in accidents. As the FBI’s press release noted, “Both numbers have decreased from 2016, during which 66 officers were feloniously killed and 52 were accidentally killed, for a total of 118 line-of-duty deaths.”

    The data is collected from “local, state, tribal, campus, and federal law enforcement agencies from around the country, as well as organizations that track officer deaths.”

    A closer look at the statistics reveals further just how nonexistent the war on cops actually is. Of the 46 officers feloniously killed on the job, five were ambushed (defined as “entrapment/premeditation” by the FBI) and 3 were victims of unprovoked attacks. Twenty-one died during “investigative or enforcement activities,” which include traffic stops, investigating suspicious persons, or tactical situations.

    In other words, they were killed doing the jobs they signed up to do (consider the popular refrain that ‘cops risk their lives’ — that’s part of the job description), though police officer does not even crack the top ten most dangerous jobs in the United States.

    The takeaway here is that while some officers die on the job – and that is unfortunate – the deliberate sentiment to kill officers simply because they are police officers is not on the rise.

    Thirty-five officers died in car accidents — more than four times the number killed by ambushes and unprovoked attacks (eight) — and according to the FBI, “of the 29 officers killed in automobile accidents, 12 were wearing seatbelts, and 15 were not,” though two of the officers not wearing seatbelts were sitting in parked cars.  Regardless, more officers died in car accidents while not wearing seatbelts (a violation of the laws they enforce, as it happens) than died as a result of flagrant attacks on their lives isolated from situational circumstances.

    Further, the total number of officers killed by accident far dwarfs the number killed in ambushes or unprovoked attacks, and the total is still greater than all law enforcement deaths recorded in the annual report.

    Further still, the number of cops killed feloniously was higher in 2016, 2014, 2012, 2011, 2010, and 2009 than it was last year, suggesting the rate of cop murders is subject to fluctuation and not consistently on the rise.

    In another relevant detail, zero federal law enforcement agents were killed in 2017. In 2016, one was killed.

    Despite the ongoing claims that police are under assault (as they continue to assault the public) — and despite congressional action to designate killing police officers a hate crime — for yet another year, this war on cops notion is proving to be nothing more than a myth.

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 11th May 2018

  • Rome Has A Big Problem With Burning Buses

    Yesterday, a public bus caught fire on Rome’s Via del Tritone.

    The number 63 bus quickly become engulfed in flames but thankfully, the driver and passengers escaped unhurt. Interestingly, as Statista’s Martin Armstrong notes, the sight of a burning bus in central Rome is nothing new with people blaming Atac, the capital’s transport authority, for the unusual phenomenon.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    So far this year, nine buses have caught fire in the city while there were 22 incidents last year. In 2016, there were 14 in total.

    Infographic: Rome Has A Big Problem With Burning Buses  | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    The blazes have become so common that they even have their own social media hashtag – #flambus, which rhymes with Trambus, Atac’s previous name.

    Unions have said the buses suffer from a lack of maintenance and internal investigations have failed to stop the fires. Officials have also warned that Atac services are unsafe and there is a growing risk to travellers.

    La Repubblica has reported that preliminary investigations say the Mercedes Citaro bus suffered a short circuit before it became engulfed in flames.

  • When Washington Think Tanks Call For "Action" In The Balkans, Expect Trouble

    Authored by James George Jatras via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    Any time two prestige think tanks in Washington issue a report calling for US “action” in any region of the world, hold onto your hat – you can be sure that trouble is a-brewing. That’s doubly true if the call relates to the Balkans, the place where in the 1990s the post-Cold War pattern was set for American wars of choice and then taken on the road to Iraq, Libya, and Syria.

    On May 1, the über-establishment National Committee on American Foreign Policy and the East-West Institute jointly issued a report, “Time for Action in the Western Balkans.” As stated in the summary:

    ‘Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has been engaged in the Western Balkans to ensure a Europe that is “whole, free and at peace” and a reliable partner for dealing with global challenges. Our goal has been to stabilize the Balkans, and to enhance security throughout Europe, through the integration of the Western Balkans into trans-Atlantic structures. We have succeeded only in part.  Although the Western Balkans are better off now than they were in the 1990s, they are stagnating and risk instability as a result of three factors: deficient internal governance and weak economies, continuing tense relations between ethnic groups and neighboring states, and the malign influence of outside forces.’

    One is reminded of the famous quip by Mary McCarthy about Lillian Hellman: “every word she writes is a lie, including ‘and’ and ‘the.’  

    Perhaps that’s too harsh. Not every word in the summary paragraph is false. There is indeed a region in Europe known as the Balkans, and as the report notes, some countries lie in the western part of it: “Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia.” (Wait, there’s some fibbing here too. Kosovo is not a country, it’s an occupied province of Serbia. Nobody is quite sure what exactly Bosnia-Herzegovina is supposed to be. Why no Croatia, is it located in another part of Europe now?)

    Each sentence in the summary encapsulates a deception further elaborated in the main report. The following is a handy sentence-by-sentence explanation in normal, straightforward English:

    ‘Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has been engaged in the Western Balkans to ensure a Europe that is “whole, free and at peace” and a reliable partner for dealing with global challenges.’

    The phrase “whole, free and at peace” is ideological claptrap. It is reminiscent of the Soviet Union’s claims of advancing “peace, progress, and socialism.” No one can say precisely what the words really mean but they’re meant to evoke a favorable psychological and emotional response, especially – and ironically – the “peace” reference common to both formulations.

    The current phrase seemingly originated in 1989, even before the reunification of Germany or the breakups of Yugoslavia and the USSR, in remarks by George Bush the Elder, but only as “Europe whole and free.” The Orwellian addition of the words “and at peace” evidently occurred in 2001 under the peace-loving, NATO-expanding, and Iraq-invading Bush the Younger.

    Still, how does the expression relate to the United States’ being a “reliable partner for dealing with global challenges”? As summarized in 2014 by the Atlantic Council, another top-flight Washington think tank:

    ‘In 1989, with Central and Eastern Europe still dominated by the Soviet Union and its Warsaw Pact alliance, President George H. W. Bush, addressed the citizens of then-divided Germany with his vision for Europe’s future. He foresaw a united continent, built on a foundation of lasting security and shared values of democracy, freedom, and prosperity. That vision of a “Europe Whole and Free” became a cornerstone of President Bill Clinton’s foreign policy and of NATO’s “open door” policy for membership. At its 1999 Washington summit, NATO swept aside much of Europe’s Cold War division by welcoming three former foes – Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary – to the Alliance. Five years later [under George H.W. Bush], Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia joined NATO in the broadest enlargement of its history. In 2009 [under Barack Obama], the Alliance welcomed Albania and Croatia as members. [JGJ: Now, under Donald Trump add Montenegro in 2017.]

    ‘In 1993, the European Union established its “Copenhagen criteria,” the principles under which it would welcome new members, unifying most of the continent. This paved the way for the transformation of Central and Eastern Europe toward democracy, the rule of law, respect for fundamental human rights, and market economies. Austria, Finland, and Sweden joined the EU in 1995, followed on May 1, 2004 by eight Central and Eastern European countries (the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia), and two Mediterranean countries (Malta and Cyprus). Bulgaria and Romania became EU member states in 2007, and Croatia in 2013.’

    In other words, the phrase that never leaves the lips of establishment figures of both parties, from Bush 41 down to the present day, almost exclusively means one thing: expansion of NATO and the European Union. The corollary is isolation, exclusion, vilification, and encirclement of Russia.

    ‘Our goal has been to stabilize the Balkans, and to enhance security throughout Europe, through the integration of the Western Balkans into trans-Atlantic structures.’

    If tearing apart Yugoslavia by unilateral recognitions (Slovenia and Croatia, 1991; Bosnia-Herzegovina, 1992) and illegally bombing Serbia (1999) are examples of efforts to “stabilize” the Balkans, one shudders to think what a goal to destabilize would look like.

    The report also warns that “Kosovo and Bosnia have been recruiting grounds for radical groups in Syria and Iraq, and a potential staging area for radical incursions in Western Europe.” There’s no hint that the presence of these “radical groups” (What kind? Buddhist? Rastafarian?) has anything to do with earlier US/NATO/EU efforts to “stabilize” the areas in question by arming and funding jihadist fighters, including those affiliated with al-Qaeda.

    As for “trans-Atlantic structures” (a rough equivalent of another ideological buzzword, “Euro-Atlantic integration”), we’re back again to the inexorable expansion of NATO and the EU. It seems the goal of stabilization boils down to little more than making sure every country in the region eventually is under secure lock and key as a member of at least one and preferably both of the Brussels-based bureaucracies.

    Throughout the report, puzzlingly little attention is given to another certified Goodthink word, democracy Perhaps that’s because no regard is given to what people in the region really think or whether or not they want to join NATO or the EU under the conditions demanded. For example, despite polls showing pro-NATO sentiment in Montenegro was at best a bare majority, and more probably the minority position, the corrupt administration of Milo Đukanović in Podgorica and the NATO countries insisted on ramming membership through without risking a popular referendum. The same contempt for democracy is shown in the report’s recommendation that the unelected so-called “High Representative” of Somebody or Other should autocratically “use his powers to intervene, to include drafting and promulgating” a new election law for Bosnia-Herzegovina whether the benighted locals like it or not.

    Regarding Serbia, the report states: “NATO membership should remain an option for Serbia, but any U.S. expectations must be tempered by the historical legacy of NATO’s military operations in the region, as well as the likelihood of vociferous Russian opposition.” As euphemisms go, “the historical legacy of NATO’s military operations in the region” as a stand-in for “people resenting the aggressive alliance that bombed them” is hard to beat. Still, Serbs no doubt would be banging on NATO’s door if not for the machinations of those nasty Russians.

    As for the EU, the report urges the US to support Belgrade’s accession “while supporting the E.U.’s position that new members comply with its Russia policy and that Serbia will not join unless it recognizes Kosovo.”  Translation: Just roll over and die, and you’re in… maybe.

    ‘We have succeeded only in part. [JGJ: Such humility!] Although the Western Balkans are better off now than they were in the 1990s, they are stagnating and risk instability as a result of three factors: deficient internal governance and weak economies, continuing tense relations between ethnic groups and neighboring states, and the malign influence of outside forces.’

    Here it’s time to cut to the chase: “malign influence of outside forces” means Russia, Russia, Russia. The entire region, Serbia included, would long since have happily been absorbed by the NATO-EU Borg if not for Moscow’s malign meddling:

    ‘The U.S. and the E.U. should counter Russian interference by (i) re-affirming the continued opportunity for Western Balkan countries to join the E.U., NATO, or both, (ii) countering Russian media manipulation with objective alternative sources of information, and support for independent media [JGJ: Like those “independent” media controlled by western governments and George Soros fronts, one presumes], (iii) advancing the region’s cooperation with NATO and E.U. efforts to promote cyber-security [JGJ: You can never have too much NATO and EU!], and (iv) analyzing the extent to which other energy sources, including U.S. liquefied gas (LNG), can serve as exceptional alternatives to Russian energy [JGJ: According to the report, cheap Russian energy is a “potential threat to some countries in the region” providing “an opportunity for significant economic leverage” that could be “abused to achieve Russian geopolitical desires,” while by contrast expensive US energy is strictly nonpolitical].’

    To sum up, “action” means intensification of the same policies that not only have made a wreck of the Balkans for a quarter of a century but now have brought us a new Cold War and the renewed threat of another world war. But the only warning for American and western policy identified in the report is the “dangers of continued inaction” – we just haven’t been aggressive enough!

    Get ready for that to change.

    Alright, though – so what? This is just a report from a couple of nongovernmental, independent think tanks. Why does it matter?

    In Washington think tanks are far more dangerous than the kind of tanks that have gun turrets and caterpillar tracks. No less than the other organs of power, such as government agencies and the obedient corporate media, think tanks are an integral part of the governing establishment. Like government contractors (who provide a significant portion of think tank funding), think tanks almost exclusively represent the views of a few hundred certified “experts” sharing a remarkable uniformity of opinion regardless of party affiliation. These experts, who inhabit a closed loop of Executive Branch departments and agencies, Congress, media, contactors, think tanks, and NGOs, are responsible for the generation of policy initiatives and their implementation. It should also be noted that many of the most prominent NGOs themselves receive significant funding from government agencies and could more properly be termed “quasi-nongovernmental,” or QuaNGOs.

    The people who play key roles in the government and purportedly nongovernmental sectors like think tanks not only think alike, in many cases they are in fact the very same people who have simply switched positions within what could best be understood as a single, hybrid public-private entity that in recent years has come to be known as the Deep State. These sources of expert views also overwhelmingly dominate the content of news and information (for example, serving as media “talking heads” or publishing commentaries), ensuring that what the public sees, hears, and reads is in accord with the analytical papers issued by think tanks, Congressional reports, and official press releases. The result is a closed loop that is almost completely impervious to views regarded as “outside the mainstream” because they do not originate in or accord with the incestuous “consensus” that exists inside the loop.

    In short, think tanks like those cited above are an integral part of the ruling apparatus. Their policy recommendations in reports like “Time for Action in the Western Balkans” will be seriously heeded and put into action by the official organs of government. In fact, those recommendations very likely were solicited by the latter precisely for the purpose of providing rationales for a course of action already decided upon.

  • Second Seismologist Team Confirms North Korean Nuke Site Has Collapsed

    An international team of seismologists has now determined that North Korea’s Punggye-ri nuclear test site is essentially unusable following a catastrophic collapse in October that left more than 200 North Korean workers buried alive.

    Their findings confirm the work of a team of Chinese seismologists who published their work shortly before North Korean Leader NKim Jong Un declared that he would shutter the site as a gesture of friendship toward South Korea and the US.

    Space-based radar showed that after the initial impact of North Korea’s latest nuclear test in September last year, a much larger part of the Punggye-ri test site caved in over the following hours and days, according to a study published in Science magazine on Thursday. The study was conducted by researchers from Singapore, Germany, China and the U.S.

    “This means that a very large domain has collapsed around the test site, not merely a tunnel or two,” said Sylvain Barbot, one of the authors who is an assistant professor at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.

    The research feeds into an international debate over the value of Mr. Kim’s commitment to close the test site in the run-up to last month’s inter-Korean summit and his meeting with President Donald Trump, expected this month or early next.

    Some US officials and experts see the closure as a significant concession while others argue that the site is unusable and its dismantling is therefore an empty gesture designed to gain leverage in negotiations with .

    Though it matters less now that Kim has honored the US’s request to release three American prisoners (and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s reportedly making headway in his quest to recover citizens who were kidnapped by the regime), the president and Japanese Prime Minister are still bracing for the talks to collapse (no pun intended).

    North

    Meanwhile, the study published Thursday echoed the findings of Chinese seismologists, who determined earlier this year that the site was basically unusable after a cavity inside the mountain where nuclear test were allegedly being carried out.

    The new study, which created three-dimensional images of the site, backs the Chinese researchers’ conclusion that a large part of the site can’t be used—while showing that the initial damage is “dwarfed” by the gradual collapse detected from space over the next few hours and days. That damage covers an area with a radius of 800 meters and a height of 400 meters, according to Mr. Barbot, who is also an adjunct professor at the University of Southern California.

    “These findings make us infer that a large part of the Punggye-ri test site is inoperable and that further test may require a substantial investment in the construction of another facility elsewhere,” he said.

    The most recent North Korean nuclear test, which was carried out in early September, caused an initial magnitude-6.3 earthquake, followed by a smaller quake roughly nine minutes later that was triggered by the collapse of damaged rock above the now-ruined cavity, the Chinese study said.

    North

    Despite the fact that Kim essentially started off negotiations with a lie by offering a false concession to the US, some officials and experts see Kim’s decision to close the site as an important concession – while others view it with suspicion – and see it as a sign that the North might be disingenuous.

    But regardless, with the date and location for the talks set (June 12 in Singapore), just like Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran deal – we won’t have a crystal clear view of what will come next.

  • Arms And Influence: How The Saudis Took Donald Trump For A Ride

    Authored by Ben Freeman and William D. Hartung via TomDispatch.com,

    It’s another Trump affair — this time without the allegations of sexual harassment (and worse), the charges and counter-charges, the lawsuits, and all the rest. So it hasn’t gotten the sort of headlines that Stormy Daniels has garnered, but when it comes to influence, American foreign policy, and issues of peace and war, it couldn’t matter more or be a bigger story (or have more money or lobbyists involved in it). Think of it as the great love affair of the age of Trump, the one between The Donald and the Saudi royals. And if there’s any place to start laying out the story, it’s naturally at a wedding, in this case in a tragic ceremony that happened to take place in Yemen, not Washington.

    On Sunday, April 22nd, planes from a Saudi Arabian-led coalition dropped two bombs on a wedding in Yemen. The groom was injured, the bride killed, along with at least 32 other civilians, many of them children.

    In response, the Saudis didn’t admit fault or express condolences to the victim’s families. Instead, they emphasized that their “coalition continues to take all the precautionary and preventative measures” to avoid civilian casualties in Yemen. This disconnect between Saudi rhetoric and the realities on the ground isn’t an anomaly — it’s been the norm. For four years, the Saudis and their allies have been conducting airstrikes with reckless abandon there, contributing to a staggering civilian death toll that now reportedly tops 10,000.

    The Saudis and their close ally, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), have repeatedly reassured American policymakers that they’re doing everything imaginable to prevent civilian casualties, only to launch yet more airstrikes against civilian targets, including schools, hospitals, funerals, and marketplaces.

    For example, last May when Donald Trump landed in Saudi Arabia on his first overseas visit as president, Saudi lobbyists distributed a “fact sheet” about the prodigious efforts of the country’s military to reduce civilian casualties in Yemen. Five days after Trump landed in Riyadh, however, an air strike killed 24 civilians at a Yemeni market. In December, such strikes killed more than 100 Yemeni civilians in 10 days. The Saudi response: condemningthe United Nations for its criticisms of such attacks and then offering yet more empty promises.

    Through all of this, President Trump has remained steadfast in his support, while the U.S. military continues to provide aerial refueling for Saudi air strikes as well as the bombs used to kill so many of those civilians. But why? In a word: Saudi Arabian and UAE money in prodigious amounts flowing into Trump’s world — to U.S. arms makers and to dozens of lobbyists, public-relations firms, and influential think tanks in Washington.

    Trump’s Love Affair with the Saudi Regime

    Saudi Arabia’s influence over Donald Trump hit an initial peak in his first presidential visit abroad, which began in Riyadh in May 2017. The Saudi royals, who had clearly grasped the nature of The Donald, offered him the one thing he seems to love most: flattery, flattery, and more flattery. The kingdom rolled out the red carpet big time. The fanfare included posting banners with photos of President Trump and Saudi King Salman along the roadside from the airport to Riyadh, projecting a five-story-high image of Trump onto the side of the hotel where he would stay, and hosting a male-invitees-only concert by country singer Toby Keith.

    According to the Washington Post, “The Saudis hosted the Trumps and the Kushners at the family’s royal palace, ferried them around in golf carts, and celebrated Trump with a multimillion-dollar gala in his honor, complete with a throne-like seat for the president.” In addition, they presented him with the Abdul-Aziz al-Saud medal, a trinket named for Saudi Arabia’s first king, considered the highest honor the kingdom can bestow on a foreign leader.

    The Saudis then gave Trump something he undoubtedly valued even more than all the fawning — a chance to pose as the world’s greatest deal maker. For the trip, Trump brought along a striking collection of CEOs from major American companies, including Marillyn Hewson of Lockheed Martin, Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase, and Stephen Schwarzman of the Blackstone Group. Big numbers on the potential value of future U.S.-Saudi business deals were tossed around, including $110 billion in arms sales and hundreds of billions more in investments in energy, petrochemicals, and infrastructure, involving projects in both countries.

    The new president was anything but shy in claiming credit for such potential mega-deals. At a press conference, he crowed about “tremendous investments in the United States… and jobs, jobs, jobs.” On his return to the U.S., he promptly bragged at a cabinet meeting that his deal-making would “bring many thousands of jobs to our country… In fact, will bring millions of jobs ultimately.” Not surprisingly, no analysis was offered to back up such claims, but it’s already clear that some of these deals may never come to fruition and many of those that do are more likely to create jobs in Saudi Arabia than in the United States.

    Still, President Trump’s love affair with that country’s royals only intensified, leading to a triumphant U.S. visit last month by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the power behind the throne in that nation. He is also the architect of its brutal Yemeni war, where, in addition to those thousands of civilians killed thanks to indiscriminate air strikes, millions have been put at risk of famine due to a Saudi-led blockade of the country. But neither of these activities that, Democratic Congressman Ted Lieu has noted, “look like war crimes” nor Saudi Arabia’s abysmal internal human rights record drew a discouraging word from Trump or anyone in his cabinet. First things first. There were business deals to be touted — and so they were.

    Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to the White House took place on the very day that the Senate was considering a bill to end U.S. support for Saudi Arabia’s Yemeni bombing campaign. While senators debated the constitutional authority of Congress to declare war and the human-rights impact of U.S. support for the Saudi war effort, Trump was boasting yet again about all those jobs that arms sales to Saudi Arabia would create, adding — in a sign of the total success of the Saudi charm offensive — that the relationship between the two countries “is now probably as good as it’s really ever been” and “will probably only get better.”

    The centerpiece of Trump’s meeting was a show-and-tell performance focused on how Saudi arms sales would boost American jobs. As he sang the praises of those Saudi purchases, he brandished a map of the United States with the legend “KSA [Kingdom of Saudi Arabia] Deals Pending” above a red oval that said “40,000 U.S. jobs.” Prominent among them were jobs in the swing states that put Trump over the top in the 2016 elections: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Florida. Score another point for Saudi influence in the form of Trump’s firm belief that his relationship with that regime will bolster his future political prospects.

    So the public courtship of Trump by the Saudi royals is already paying large dividends, but public flattery and massive arms deals are just the better-known part of the picture. The president has been heavily courted privately as well, both through personal connections and through an expansive lobbying operation, which it’s important to map out, even if there’s no administration show-and-tell on the subject.

    The Personal Courtship

    As a start — as has been widely publicized — Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law and officially anointed point man on Middle Eastern peace (an outcome he is uniquely ill-equipped to deliver), has struck up a beautiful friendship with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Their relationship was solidified at a March 2017 lunch at the White House, followed by numerous phone calls and several Kushner visits to Saudi Arabia, including one shortly before the prince cracked down on his domestic rivals. Though that crackdown was publicly justified as an anti-corruption move, it conveniently targeted anyone who could conceivably have stood in the way of bin Salman’s consolidation of power. According to Michael Wolff in Fire and Fury, after bin Salman’s power play, Trump joyfully toldKushner, “We’ve put our man on top!” — an indication that Kushner had offered a Trump stamp of approval to the prince’s political maneuver during his trip to Riyadh.

    The friendship has clearly paid off handsomely for the Saudis. Kushner was reportedly the main advocate for having Trump make his first foreign visit to that country — over the objections of Secretary of Defense James Mattis, who felt it would send the wrong signal to allies about Trump’s attitudes towards democracy and autocracy (as indeed it did). Kushner also strongly urged Trump to back a Saudi-UAE blockade and propaganda campaign against the Gulf state of Qatar, which Trump forcefully did with a tweet: “So good to see the Saudi Arabia visit with the King and 50 countries already paying off. They said they would take a hard line on funding extremism and all reference was pointing to Qatar. Perhaps this will be the beginning of the end to horror of terrorism!”

    Trump later changed his mind on this issue — after learning that Qatar hosts the largest U.S. military air base in the Middle East and after Qatar launched a PR and lobbying offensive of its own. That small, ultra-wealthy state hired nine lobbying and public relations firms, including former Attorney General John Ashcroft’s, in the two months after the Saudi-UAE blockade began, according to filings under the Foreign Agents Registration Act. Most notably, the Qataris agreed to spend $12 billion on U.S. combat aircraft just weeks after Trump’s tweet.

    Wherever Trump ultimately ends up on the campaign against Qatar (driven in part by a Saudi belief that its emir hasn’t sufficiently toed a tough enough line on Iran), Kushner’s role in the affair gives new spin to the old phrase “The personal is the political.” According to a source who spoke to veteran reporter Dexter Filkins, Kushner’s antipathy toward Qatar may have been driven in part by anger over its unwillingness to bail his father out of a bad Manhattan real estate investment with a massive loan.

    Another snapshot of the Saudi-UAE urge to get up close and personal with The Donald lies in the strange case of George Nader, a political operative and senior advisor to the UAE, and Elliott Broidy, who reportedly can get face time with President Trump as needed. Nader evidently successfully persuaded Broidy to privately press Trump to take positions ever more in line with Saudi and UAE interests on Qatar and in their urge to see Secretary of State Rex Tillerson head for the exit. Whether or not Broidy’s appeals were instrumental in Trump’s decisions, he can’t be faulted for lack of effort. His exploits underscore how far both countries are willing to go in their efforts to bend U.S. foreign policy to their needs and interests.

    In his campaign to win over Broidy, Nader gave him a cool $2.7 million to fund an anti-Qatar conference sponsored by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a sum that was also followed by more than $600,000 in donations for Republican candidates.

    The keynote speaker at that conference was House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Ed Royce, who then crafted a sanctions bill against Qatar and — miracle of miracles — shortly thereafter received a campaign contribution from Broidy. Wherever those funds came from, it strains credulity to believe that this was all coincidental. To sweeten the deal, Nader also dangled the prospect of major contracts for Broidy’s private security firm, Circinus. One deal with the UAE, for $200 million, has already been sealed, while a Saudi one is in the works. At this point, who knows whether any of this was illegal, but in the world of Washington influence peddling, what’s legal is often as scandalous as what’s not.

    The Lobbying Courtship

    If such deep connections between Saudi Arabia and the Trump administration sometimes seem to surface out of nowhere, they all too often stem from an extraordinarily influential, if largely unpublicized, Saudi lobbying and public relations campaign.

    Following the November election, the Saudis wasted no time in adding more firepower to their already robust influence operation in this country. In the less than three months before Trump was sworn in as president in January 2017, the Saudis inked contracts with three new firms: a Republican-oriented one, the McKeon Group (whose namesake, Howard “Buck” McKeon, is the recently retired chairman of the House Armed Services Committee); the CGCN Group, a firm well connected to conservative Republicans whose clientele also includes Boeing, which sells bombs to Saudi Arabia; and an outfit associated with the Democrats, the Podesta Group, which later dissolved after revelations about its work with Paul Manafort, Trump’s former campaign manager, and Russian banks under sanction.

    Before Trump even made it to Riyadh that May, according to an analysis of Foreign Agents Registration Act records, the Saudis signed contracts with six more public relations firms and then added two more immediately after severing diplomatic ties with Qatar in early June. All told, in just the first year of the Trump administration, the Saudis spent more than a million dollars monthly on more than two dozen registered lobbying and public relations outfits. The UAE was not far behind, boasting 18 registered lobbying and public relations firms in 2017, including more than $10 milliondollars that year alone that went to just one of them, the Camstoll Group.

    All this lobbying firepower gave those two countries an unparalleled ability to steer U.S. foreign policy on the Middle East. Among other avenues of influence, their campaign included a steady stream of propaganda flowing to policymakers about the war in Yemen.

    Large foreign lobbies of this sort also enjoy an even more direct path to influence through campaign contributions. While it’s illegal for foreign nationals to make such contributions in U.S. elections, there’s an easy workaround for that — just hire lobbyists to do it for you. Such firms and figures have, in the past, admitted to serving as middlemen in this fashion and are known to have sometimes given handsomely. For example, a study by Maplight and the International Business Times found that registered lobbyists working at just four firms hired by the Saudis gave more than half a million dollars to federal candidates in the 2016 elections.

    Another important avenue of influence for the Saudis and Emiratis: their financial contributions to Washington’s think tanks. The full extent of their reach in this area is hard to grasp because think tanks and other non-profits aren’t required to disclose their donors and many choose not to do so. However, an eye-opening New York Times exposé in 2014 revealed an expansive list of think tanks that received money from the Saudis or Emiratis, including the Atlantic Council, the Brookings Institution, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and the Middle East Institute. In the age of Trump, it’s a reasonable bet that it has only gotten worse.

    A War Alliance?

    There is more at stake in Washington’s present web of ties to those two lands than just business. The uncritical embrace of such reckless, extreme, and undemocratic regimes by President Trump and many members of Congress has far-reaching implications for the future of American foreign policy in the Middle East.

    Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has asserted that Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei “makes Hitler look good” and has suggested military action against Iran on a number of occasions. Add to this the prince’s successful efforts to keep the Trump administration on board in supporting his war in Yemen, plus Riyadh’s political interference in Qatar and Lebanon, and there is a real danger that Trump’s uncritical embrace of the Saudi regime could spark a regional war. The indiscriminate killing of Yemenis by the Saudi coalition, with the help of U.S. weapons, has already contributed to the world’s largest humanitarian crisis, while reportedly making the al-Qaeda franchise in Yemen “stronger than ever.”

    There is much concern in official Washington about Trump’s seemingly cavalier attitude towards longstanding U.S. alliances, but in the case of Saudi Arabia, a major change of course would undoubtedly be advisable. The least we can do is help make sure that the people of Yemen don’t fear for their lives at their own weddings.

  • Israel Deploys Tanks To Contested Border Region After Attacks On Syria

    After the Israeli military purportedly took out “all of the Iranian infrastructure” in Syria during a skirmish with Syrian and Iranian troops last night (a charge which Iran denies), the IDF has moved a line of tanks to the Golan Heights, the contested boarder area between Israel and Syria.

    Of course, one can’t help but wonder: Despite Israel’s claims that it isn’t planning any more strikes “unless provoked”, is the IDF preparing for a land invasion of Syria?

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    One could be forgiven for suspecting that this is exactly what’s happening.

    Tanks

    Tanks

    Tank

    Of course, the US “condemns the Iranian regime’s provocative rocket attacks from Syria against Israeli citizens, and we strongly support Israel’s right to act in self-defense,” according to a White House statement.

    It’s like they say…

    Iran

     

  • Escobar: The Art Of Breaking A Deal

    Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Asia Times,

    Donald Trump’s decision to leave the JCPOA will not open the path to an Iranian nuclear weapon

    Breaking the unwritten rules of global diplomacy, the Trump administration is now in violation of the multilateral Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or in plain language the Iran nuclear deal. Nuance is notoriously absent in what can only be described as a unilateral hard exit. 

    All suspended United States sanctions against Iran will be reinstated, and harsh additional ones will be imposed.

    It does not matter that the International Atomic Energy Agency, or IAEA, repeatedly confirmed Iran was complying with the JCPOA as verified by 11 detailed reports since January 2016. Even US Secretary of Defense James Mattis vouched for the stringent verification mechanisms.

    Facts appear to be irrelevant, though. The JCPOA is the Obama administration’s only tangible foreign policy success, so, for domestic political reasons, it had to be destroyed.

    President Donald Trump’s opening address to the “Iranian people” during his White House speech also does not cut it. The overwhelming majority of Iranians support the JCPOA, and counted on it to alleviate their economic plight.

    Moreover, Trump’s regime change advisers support the exiled People’s Mojahedin Organization, or MEK, which is despised beyond belief inside Iran.

    As a minor subplot, rational geopolitical actors are asking what sort of national security advisor would strategically “advise” his boss to blow up a multilateral, United Nations-endorsed, working nuclear deal? 

    To cut to the chase, the US decision to leave the JCPOA will not open the path to an Iranian nuclear weapon. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, who has the last word, repeatedly stressed these are un-Islamic.

    Regime change

    It will not open the path toward regime change. On the contrary, Iran hardliners, clerical and otherwise, are already capitalizing on their interpretation from the beginning – Washington cannot be trusted. 

    And it will not open the path toward all-out war. It’s no secret every Pentagon war-gaming exercise against Iran turned out nightmarish. This included the fact that the Gulf Cooperation Council, or GCC, could be put out of the oil business within hours, with dire consequences for the global economy. 

    President Hassan Rouhani, in his cool, calm, collected response, emphasized Iran will remain committed to the JCPOA. Immediately before the announcement, he had already said: “It is possible that we will face some problems for two or three months, but we will pass through this.”

    Responding to Trump, Rouhani stressed: “From now on, this is an agreement between Iran and five countries … from now on the P5+1 has lost its 1… we have to wait and see how the others react.

    “If we come to the conclusion that with cooperation with the five countries we can keep what we wanted despite Israeli and American efforts, Barjam [the Iranian description of the JCPOA] can survive.”

    Clearly, a titanic internal struggle is already underway, revolving around whether the Rouhani administration – which is actively working to diversify the economy – will be able to face the onslaught by the hard-liners. They have always characterized the JCPOA as a betrayal of Iran’s national interest.

    Following Rouhani, “others” reacted quickly. The European Union’s big three of Germany, France and Britain made it clear that trade and investment ties with Iran would not be sacrificed. Those views were echoed by the EU’s leading diplomat Federica Mogherini in a statement.

    Still, the key question now is how, in an interlinked global economy, European banks will be able to manage trade facilitation. 

    Diplomats in Brussels told Asia Times that the EU is already devising a complex mechanism to protect European companies doing business in Iran. This is something that has been discussed between Iranian and the EU3 diplomats.

    Yet in the event the EU3 capitulates, even with support from Russia and China, the JCPOA will be effectively over with unpredictable consequences. These would include Iran’s possible exit from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

    On the crucial oil front, Gulf traders told Asia Times that even with new US sanctions, and the possibility of crude being priced way beyond the current US$70-a-barrel, up to 1 million barrels a day of Iranian oil would simply disappear from global markets.

    If the EU, which imports 5% of its oil from Iran, buckles under too much pressure, these exports will be relocated to Asian customers such as China, India, Japan and South Korea. 

    The US decision has also cast a shadow over the upcoming US-North Korea summit. The perception in Pyongyang – not to mention Beijing and Moscow – will be inevitable – the US can not be trusted.

    For all its faults, the JCPOA remains a complex, painstakingly designed multilateral agreement, which took 12 years of diplomacy to broker, and was sanctioned by the UN.

    Key hub

    The geopolitical consequences are massive. To start with, strategically, Washington is isolated. The only actors applauding the decision to rip up the deal are Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

    As Iran is a key hub of the ongoing Eurasia integration process, the trade-investment partnership with both Moscow and Beijing will be even stronger as Asia Times has reported.

    On the military front, nothing will prevent Russia from supplying Iran with S-400 missile systems or China with its “carrier-killers.”

    The JCPOA was a dizzyingly complex technical undertaking. In parallel, it is no secret the US establishment never got over the 1979 Islamic revolution. The privileged roadmap in the Beltway remains regime change.

    The real US objective – way beyond the JCPOA’s technicalities – was always geopolitical. And that meant stopping to Iran from becoming the leading power in Southwest Asia.

    That still applies as seen by the United States Central Command’s recent drive “to neutralize, counterbalance and shape the destabilizing impact Iran has across the region…” Or, in Trump terminology, to curtail Iran’s “malign activities.”     

    CENTCOM commander, Gen. Joseph Votel, went straight to the heart of the matter when he told the US House Armed Services Committee in February that “both Russia and China are cultivating multidimensional ties to Iran … Lifting UN sanctions under the joint comprehensive plan of action opens [the] path for Iran to resume application to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.” 

    In a nutshell, this betrays the entire project which is to thwart the Eurasia integration process, which features Russia and China as peer competitors aligning with Iran along the New Silk Roads. 

    Predictably, we are back to the late Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski’s book, The Grand Chessboard.    

    “…Potentially the most dangerous scenario would be an ‘anti-hegemonic’ coalition united not by ideology but by complementary grievances… a grand coalition of China, Russia, perhaps Iran… reminiscent in scale and scope of the challenge posed by the Sino-Soviet bloc, though this time, China would likely be the leader and Russia the follower,” he wrote. “Averting this contingency… will require US geostrategic skill on the western, eastern, and southern perimeters of Eurasia simultaneously.” 

    So, Trump has reshuffled the Grand Chessboard. Persians, though, happen to know a thing or two about chess.

  • Malaysia's Post-Election Maelstrom: What Happens Next?

    Malaysia’s 14th general election resulted in a surprise victory for an opposition coalition for the first time since Malaysia’s independence. In a stunning political comeback, 92-year-old Mahathir Mohamad – the former authoritarian leader – was sworn in as prime minister on Thursday.

    As AP reports, the election result is a political earthquake for the Muslim-majority country, sweeping aside the 60-year rule of the National Front and its leader Najib Razak, whose reputation was tarnished by a monumental corruption scandal, a crackdown on dissent and the imposition of an unpopular sales tax that hurt many of his coalition’s poor rural supporters.

    Mahathir, prime minister for 22 years until stepping down in 2003, was credited with modernizing Malaysia but was also known as a heavy-handed leader who imprisoned opponents and subjugated the courts.

    “We need to have this government today without delay,” Mahathir, 92, said before the ceremony. “There is a lot of work to be done. You know the mess the country is in and we need to attend to this mess as soon as possible and that means today.”

    Former premier Najib Razak, 64, said he accepted the “verdict of the people” and tweeted that he had “recently congratulated Tun Dr Mahathir on his appointment as the seventh prime minister,” and added, “I’m willing to help a smooth transition.”

    We are sure he is – as the specter of the 1MDB corruption debacle looms ever larger now, since, as The Australian reports, newly-elected Mahathir Mohamad has warned the man he toppled, Najib Razak, that he will have to “face the consequences” if he has done anything wrong over the theft of US$4.5bn ($6bn) from the country’s sovereign wealth fund, 1MDB.

    In a strong indication his government will reopen probes into 1MDB that were quashed by Mr Najib’s government, Dr Mahathir yesterday said “the law will be fully implemented in this country”.

    He also flagged investigation of a 55bn ringgit ($16.8bn) loan from China to fund Malaysia’s East Coast Railway Link secured by Mr Najib and linked by his opponents to the 1MDB debacle.

    John Lee, a former adviser to Foreign Minister Julie Bishop, said the anger against Mr Najib over 1MDB felt by educated Malaysians will leave Dr Mahathir with little choice but to restart investigations into the alleged theft — even though Mr Najib was a minister in Dr Mahathir’s government when both were members of UMNO.

    “He doesn’t have much to lose,” Mr Lee, a fellow at the US think tank the Hudson Institute, told The Australian. “If you kept it just to 1MDB, I think he will be safe. Certainly he couldn’t really assess the whole Malaysian political economy, because he set that up – the crony capitalism stuff.”

    London journalist Clare ­Rewcastle-Brown, who is wanted for arrest in Malaysia for coverage of the 1MDB scandal on her Sarawak Report website, said Malaysian authorities would investigate with “full force and vigour”.

    While he has denied wrong­doing, Mr Najib has been unable to provide a convincing explanation for how up to $US1bn passed through his bank account at ­Ambank, which is one-quarter owned by Australia’s ANZ. Before the poll, opposition figures led by lawyer Zaid Ibrahim, a former UMNO minister, were investi­gating a class action against ANZ over its alleged role in 1MDB.

    In court documents, the US Department of Justice claims almost $US30m filched from the fund was used to buy jewellery for Mr Najib’s wife, Rosmah Mansor.

    The alleged architect of the heist, Malaysian Jho Low, is accused of spending about $US9m on jewellery he gave to Australian model Miranda Kerr in 2014 — some of it handed over during a tryst aboard his yacht Equanimity, which he bought using money allegedly stolen from 1MDB.

    Millions allegedly found their way to Ms Mansor’s son, Riza Aziz, who used some of it to fund movies including Leonardo DiCaprio’s The Wolf of Wall Street.

    Australian Federal Police has restricted its probe to proceeds of crime, including property on the Gold Coast, reaped by those involved in siphoning money away from 1MDB.

    Asked whether Mr Najib would be prosecuted, Dr Mahathir said his coalition was “not seeking revenge… We do not want to punish people because they do not agree with us but the law will be fully implemented in this country.

    Of course, one glance at Malaysia’s bond, stock, and FX markets in the last 24 hours and one knows immediately that the surprise win has significant macro implications, mostly in fiscal policy according to Goldman Sachs.

    While Goldman does not see immediate implications for monetary policy in the near term, higher policy uncertainties, as well as typical post-election currency patterns, may point to near-term weakening in the MYR.

    Main points: Surprise win for an opposition coalition, for the first time in history, has significant macro implications

    Malaysia’s 14th general election resulted in a surprise victory by the opposition coalition, Pakatan Harapan (PH), led by former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad. The Election Commission reported that PH has won 121 seats in Parliament, over the threshold (of 112 seats) to form a government, compared with 79 seats for the incumbent Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition and remaining 22 seats from other smaller opposition parties (CNN, May 10, 2018; Exhibit 1).

    The election marks the first defeat for the ruling UMNO party and its coalition (BN as well as its predecessor, the Alliance) since Malaysia’s independence in 1957. Dr. Mahathir will likely be returning to the PM post after 15 years, but policy uncertainty may rise as Malaysia awaits its first major transition in government.

    Dr. Mahathir, who is 92 years old, served as the Prime Minister from 1981 to 2003, including during the Asian Financial Crisis and is well known for introducing capital controls together with a currency peg at 3.8 against the USD in September 1998.

    The surprise win bears significant macro implications in our view, mostly for fiscal policies (see our “Malaysia election–Fiscal and monetary policy implications“, Asia in Focus, April 19, 2018). One of PH’s 10 election pledges (to be fulfilled within the first 100 days of office) was the repeal of the goods and services tax (GST), to be replaced by the previous sales and services tax (SST). This could lead to net revenue losses, at least in the short term, in our view, given the relative efficiency of GST administration and the previous vulnerability of SST to collection loopholes. After its introduction in 2015, GST accounted for about 20% of total government revenues and 3.4% of GDP in 2016.

    Despite a possible revenue slippage from a GST abolishment, government spending needs may rise. As part of the 10 election pledges, PH also promised to raise the minimum wage with half of the increase subsidized by the government (and potentially follow through with subsequent hikes over next the five years to reach RM1500 per month from RM1000 currently in peninsular regions). More broadly, PH has called for more social spending and infrastructure development, as well as a possible revival of fuel subsidies. While details on the subsidy plan have not been disclosed, fuel subsidies cost some RM20bn (US$5bn, or around 2% of GDP) per annum before their abolishment in November 2014. Given that the government needs to operate under a public debt ceiling of 55% of GDP, not far from the current public debt level of 50.9% of GDP, more spending would imply some combination of tax hikes, improved tax administration, or a potential breach of the debt limit.

    Market implications

    1. MYR might see weakening pressures in the near term. The typical post-election pattern (of currency weakening) is a factor that could repeat this time as well. Fiscal implications of PH’s election promises, notably the GST repeal, reintroduction of oil subsides, and subsidized minimum wage hikes, could affect sentiments of bond investors although it remains to be seen how the election promises are implemented. While higher oil prices will help improve government revenues (about 0.2% of GDP for a $10/barrel increase of oil prices, in Ministry of Finance’s estimates), windfall energy revenues may not be sufficient to offset the pressure for larger fiscal deficits arising from the implementation of election promises. Foreign holdings of government securities increased to around 45% of the market at end-March 2018 up from 38% in April 2017, boosted by some US$7bn foreign inflows over the 12-month period (Exhibit 2).

    Therefore, bond yields and the MYR could be sensitive to fiscal news and broader sentiment on the new government’s policies; our USDMYR forecast is under review given the increased near-term uncertainties.

    2. Fiscal expansion at a time of above-potential growth (5.5-6.0% in 2018 in BNM forecastversus its potential growth estimate of 5.0-5.5%) could add to inflation pressures. A minimum wage hike, if implemented within the first 100 days of government formation as promised, should also show partial pass-through to consumer prices (as for example seen recently in the case of Korea). We maintain our view that the next 25bp policy rate hike will take place in 1H of 2019 given currently low core inflation and sequential moderation in growth later this year. That said, a possible rise in inflation expectations or significant weakening in the MYR could may tilt the BNM towards a more hawkish direction in the coming months.

    Finally, AP notes that Bridget Welsh, a Southeast Asia expert at John Cabot University in Rome, said it was hugely ironic that Mahathir, who damaged Malaysia’s democratic institutions with his strong-arm rule, has returned as its political savior.

    “It is not just a comeback,” she said. “It is about making amends about his mistakes and moving Malaysia forward.”

    We shall see…

  • WSJ: The FBI Hid A Mole In The Trump Campaign

    On Wednesday we reported on an intense battle playing out between House Intel Committee Chairman Devin Nunes (D-CA), the Department of Justice, and the Mueller investigation concerning a cache of intelligence that Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein refuses to hand over – a request he equated to “extortion.”

    On Tuesday, the Washington Post reported that Nunes was denied access to the information on the grounds that it “could risk lives by potentially exposing the source, a U.S. citizen who has provided intelligence to the CIA and FBI.

    After the White House caved to Rosenstein and Nunes was barred from seeing the documents, it also emerged that this same intelligence had already been shared with Special Counsel Robert Mueller as part of his investigation into alleged Russian involvement in the 2016 US election.

    On Wednesday afternoon, however, news emerged that Nunes and House Oversight and Government Reform Committee Chairman Trey Gowdy (R-SC) would receive a classified Thursday briefing at the DOJ on the documents. This is, to put it lightly, incredibly significant.

    Why? Because it appears that the FBI may have had a mole embedded in the Trump campaign

    In a bombshell op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, Kimberly Strassel shares a few key insights about recent developments. Perhaps we should start with the ending and let you take it from there. Needless to say Strassel’s claims, if true, would have wide ranging implications for the CIA, FBI, DOJ and former Obama administration officials.

    Strassel concludes: 

    “I believe I know the name of the informant, but my intelligence sources did not provide it to me and refuse to confirm it. It would therefore be irresponsible to publish it.”

    Authored by Kimberley Strassel, op-ed via The Wall Street Journal,

    About That FBI ‘Source’

    Did the bureau engage in outright spying against the 2016 Trump campaign?

    The Department of Justice lost its latest battle with Congress Thursday when it allowed House Intelligence Committee members to view classified documents about a top-secret intelligence source that was part of the FBI’s investigation of the Trump campaign. Even without official confirmation of that source’s name, the news so far holds some stunning implications.

    Among them is that the Justice Department and Federal Bureau of Investigation outright hid critical information from a congressional investigation. In a Thursday press conference, Speaker Paul Ryan bluntly noted that Intelligence Chairman Devin Nunes’s request for details on this secret source was “wholly appropriate,” “completely within the scope” of the committee’s long-running FBI investigation, and “something that probably should have been answered a while ago.” Translation: The department knew full well it should have turned this material over to congressional investigators last year, but instead deliberately concealed it.

    House investigators nonetheless sniffed out a name, and Mr. Nunes in recent weeks issued a letter and a subpoena demanding more details. Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein’s response was to double down—accusing the House of “extortion” and delivering a speech in which he claimed that “declining to open the FBI’s files to review” is a constitutional “duty.” Justice asked the White House to back its stonewall. And it even began spinning that daddy of all superspook arguments—that revealing any detail about this particular asset could result in “loss of human lives.”

    This is desperation, and it strongly suggests that whatever is in these files is going to prove very uncomfortable to the FBI.

    The bureau already has some explaining to do. Thanks to the Washington Post’s unnamed law-enforcement leakers, we know Mr. Nunes’s request deals with a “top secret intelligence source” of the FBI and CIA, who is a U.S. citizen and who was involved in the Russia collusion probe. When government agencies refer to sources, they mean people who appear to be average citizens but use their profession or contacts to spy for the agency. Ergo, we might take this to mean that the FBI secretly had a person on the payroll who used his or her non-FBI credentials to interact in some capacity with the Trump campaign.

    This would amount to spying, and it is hugely disconcerting. It would also be a major escalation from the electronic surveillance we already knew about, which was bad enough. Obama political appointees rampantly “unmasked” Trump campaign officials to monitor their conversations, while the FBI played dirty with its surveillance warrant against Carter Page, failing to tell the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court that its supporting information came from the Hillary Clinton campaign. Now we find it may have also been rolling out human intelligence, John Le Carré style, to infiltrate the Trump campaign.

    Which would lead to another big question for the FBI: When? The bureau has been doggedly sticking with its story that a tip in July 2016 about the drunken ramblings of George Papadopoulos launched its counterintelligence probe. Still, the players in this affair—the FBI, former Director Jim Comey, the Steele dossier authors—have been suspiciously vague on the key moments leading up to that launch date. When precisely was the Steele dossier delivered to the FBI? When precisely did the Papadopoulos information come in?
    And to the point, when precisely was this human source operating? Because if it was prior to that infamous Papadopoulos tip, then the FBI isn’t being straight. It would mean the bureau was spying on the Trump campaign prior to that moment. And that in turn would mean that the FBI had been spurred to act on the basis of something other than a junior campaign aide’s loose lips.

    We also know that among the Justice Department’s stated reasons for not complying with the Nunes subpoena was its worry that to do so might damage international relationships. This suggests the “source” may be overseas, have ties to foreign intelligence, or both. That’s notable, given the highly suspicious role foreigners have played in this escapade. It was an Australian diplomat who reported the Papadopoulos conversation. Dossier author Christopher Steele is British, used to work for MI6, and retains ties to that spy agency as well as to a network of former spooks. It was a former British diplomat who tipped off Sen. John McCain to the dossier. How this “top secret” source fits into this puzzle could matter deeply.

    I believe I know the name of the informant, but my intelligence sources did not provide it to me and refuse to confirm it. It would therefore be irresponsible to publish it. But what is clear is that we’ve barely scratched the surface of the FBI’s 2016 behavior, and the country will never get the straight story until President Trump moves to declassify everything possible. It’s time to rip off the Band-Aid.

  • Baltimore Police Chief Darryl De Sousa Charged With Failing To File Taxes

    Baltimore Police Commissioner Darryl De Sousa acknowledged Thursday that he failed to file federal and state income tax returns for three consecutive years after the Department of Justice (DOJ) slapped him with three misdemeanor counts of failure to file taxes.

    In a statement published on Twitter, De Sousa said: “there is no excuse for my failure to fulfill my obligations as a citizen and public official, my only explanation is that I failed to sufficiently prioritize my personal affairs.”

    The DOJ charged De Sousa for not filing federal returns for tax years 2013, 2014 and 2015. In his statement, De Sousa did indicate he filed taxes for 2016 and received an extension for 2017.

    “Naturally, this is a source of embarrassment for me and I deeply regret any embarrassment it has caused the Police Department and the City of Baltimore. I accept full responsibility,” he added.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The Department of Justice said De Sousa could face as much as one year in prison and a $25,000 fine for each of the three counts.

    Greg Tucker, a spokesman for Mayor Catherine Pugh, said the mayor expressed confidence in De Sousa following the DOJ announcement of the charges.

    “He made a mistake in not filing his taxes for the years in question. He is working to resolve this matter and has assured me that he will do so as quickly as possible,” Pugh said in a statement.

    Pugh said she has “full confidence” in De Sousa and believes that “he will continue to focus on our number one priority of reducing violence.”

    According to The Baltimore Sun, “De Sousa earned $93,104 in 2013 when he is first accused of failing to file taxes. He earned $101,985 in 2014 and $127,089 in 2015.” In 2018, he could be earning as much as $210,000 per year, as he was recently promoted to commissioner.

    Official DOJ Charging Document: Baltimore Police Chief Darryl De Sousa charged with failure to file taxes 

    The Baltimore Sun said De Sousa became Baltimore’s top cop in January, after Mayor Pugh fired ex-Commissioner Kevin Davis, citing a surge of violent crime after the 2015 Baltimore Riots.

    De Sousa expressed himself as “a chess player,” but as we have found out — the DOJ had the winning piece with a checkmate. The Baltimore Sun details De Sousa’s climb up the Baltimore Police ladder, as his tenure with force has been more than two decades.

    “A personable commander, De Sousa easily won official confirmation to the commissioner position on a 14-1 vote by the Baltimore City Council — without debate — in late February. He is the first commissioner to come up through the ranks of the department since Frederick H. Bealefeld III, who served from 2007 to 2012. Davis and former commissioner Batts were hired from outside.

    During his rise through the department, De Sousa held various leadership roles, mostly in the patrol division. He was made a deputy commander of the Northeast District in 2008, then became the commanding officer of the same district in 2011. In 2012, he was appointed lieutenant colonel overseeing the neighborhood patrol division, then colonel and chief of patrol in 2013.

    De Sousa, 53, is a native of New York City but has lived in Baltimore since moving here to attend Morgan State University in 1983. When he was named to the department’s top position in January, De Sousa described himself as “a chess player” who has always been focused on the operational side of policing.”

    Lt. Gene Ryan, president of the local police union in Baltimore, said he was not at liberty to discuss the ongoing case, as he was not familiar with “any of the circumstances behind these charges.”

    “Obviously income taxes are a personal thing,” he said. “We will see how it pans out.”

    While the Baltimore Sun notes the police department usually suspends it officers accused of misdemeanors pending the outcome of the case, we will discover De Sousa’s fate shortly as Baltimore’s top cop. Stay tuned!

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 10th May 2018

  • Putting London's "Soaring" Homicide Rate In Perspective

    London has a problem with rising violent crime, that is unfortunately a fact.

    According to Metropolitan Police statistics, there was a 51 percent rise in murders from financial year 16/17 to 17/18. Picking up on the issue, U.S. President Trump said at an NRA rally on Friday that one particular hospital in the UK capital was “like a “war zone” due to knife attack victims. This though, as Statista’s Martin Armstrong notes, is a UK problem, and while the problem should absolutely not be played down, it is a problem on a UK scale, too.

    Infographic: London's homicide rate in perspective | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Looking at the broader offense category ‘homicide’, London had a rate per 100,000 population of 1.8 in the twelve months ending March 31 this year (including eight deaths that were due to terrorism).

    On a U.S. scale though, and when comparing to the biggest cities there, this rate is low – lower than any of the 50 largest in the country, in fact. San Diego is the safest of the major U.S. cities, with a homicide rate of 2.2. New York had a rate of 3.4 in 2017. Looking to the top of the list, Baltimore has an astonishing rate of 55.8.

     

  • Has Europe Rebelled?

    Via Oriental Review,

    Washington’s current foreign-policy practice is a bit reminiscent of the golden era of the Ottoman Sublime Porte, in the sense that any visit by a leader of a vassal state is seen as nothing more than an opportunity for a public demonstration of his willingness to serve the great sultan or, in the modern context, to do the bidding of the master of the White House.

    The visitor must also wear a big grin and speak passionately about how happy he is to have been given the opportunity to kiss the Sultan’s slippers. Or, to put it in the language of today, to be impressed with the leadership of the US and personally inspired by the energy of the American president. The Washington establishment can’t wrap its head around any other configuration, and therefore in the present era of America’s ebbing hegemony, the ideal visitors to the White House are the presidents of Ukraine or the Baltic countries. The other heads of states that come to Washington, including EU leaders and even some African presidents, act like insolent upstarts, who — from the standpoint of imperial tradition — do not stand to attention, tend to offer their flattery without fervor or exuberance, and, most importantly, do not race off to fulfill the wishes of the leaders of the empire.

    Reception ceremony of the Conte de Saint Priest at the Ottoman Porte by Antoine de Favray 1767

    The meeting between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and US President Donald Trump on April 27, 2018 served only to confirm that Washington does not need allies who have their own national interests: all allies must be guided by the concept of the unipolar hegemony of the US. Anyone who is uncomfortable with this is relegated to the circle of those who are seen as unfriendly to the White House. The Washington Post makes it clear that Germany falls into this latter camp: “Angela Merkel is becoming Europe’s weakest link.

    That article points out how serious the differences are between the two countries’ ruling factions. Both Germany’s political elite, and as well as the German population as a whole, are characterized very disparagingly: “German passivity is deeply ingrained. Berlin’s political class lacks strategic thinking, hates risk and has little spunk. It hides behind its ignominious past to justify pacifism when it comes to hard questions about defense and security issues.” The general decrepitude of the Bundeswehr and its equipment are criticized and mocked in the discussion of Germany’s refusal to take part in the missile attack on Syria carried out by the US, Britain, and France. And then the article even alleges that Germany’s Syrian policy has actually abetted the wrong side by granting asylum to almost a million refugees fleeing that country, thus supposedly allowing Bashar al-Assad to continue fighting.

    In this context it becomes quite obvious that the specific issues that Merkel brought to the table in Washington were merely secondary concerns to her American partner. Germany’s Madam Chancellor had to traverse a distance of 10,000 kilometers to be granted a 20-minute conversation, from which it was clear that Trump had not altered his negative attitude toward questions so vital to the Germans as customs duties on steel and aluminum (set at 25% and 10%), Nord Stream 2, a loosening of the Russian sanctions for major German manufacturers, or the nuclear deal with Iran.

    Angela Merkel had a difficult choice to make. Either Berlin declares war on all of Washington’s opponents, or it is dismissed once and for all as the “weakest link,” with all the ensuing consequences. But the first option would be a blow to Germany’s national interests. It is not just its international trade that would take the hit, but also its energy projects and German public opinion. She was given to understand that otherwise Germany would fail to meet the White House’s criteria for the role of America’s main partner in Europe.

    Angela Merkel did not seem overly impressed. She sees the constraints that exist for her. The historical memory of the greatest defeat of the twentieth century still lingers. Hence the high level of wariness when it comes to invitations to join NATO’s military escapades. Nor has anyone there forgotten the 1980s, when Germany lived in intense fear of the USSR’s SS-20 missiles that could have incinerated that country in the blink of an eye. Germans have no desire to meekly toe the line of yet another US president, which could end up taking them back to those days.

    Apparently this is why the head of the German government seemed to have armored herself with the mantra of “don’t give anything to Trump” during the negotiations in Washington.

    If you look at things pragmatically, Trump needed to get a few concessions from Merkel. First of all, he needed the consent of the German chancellor to at least bring back the sanctions and hopefully to even agree to a war against Iran, because for the current Washington administration, a dissolution of the “Iran deal” and a subsequent war with Tehran is the biggest item on its foreign-policy agenda. Second, Trump had to “squeeze” Merkel on the issue of increasing Germany’s financial contributions NATO’s budget. According to the White House, Germany should be contributing 2% of its annual GDP to the alliance’s budget (or in other words, to the backlog of product orders for the US military-industrial complex). As Trump expressed it so poetically, “NATO is wonderful, but it helps Europe more than it helps us, and why are we paying the vast majority of the costs?” Third, the US needed to ensure that European leaders, and especially Merkel, capitulate in the tariff wars between the US and the EU, and, in a best-case scenario, to also secure the EU’s assistance in the trade war with China that Trump recently kicked off.

    Based on the results of the meeting, Washington received a polite refusal on all three points. Five years ago it would have been difficult to imagine this kind of situation, but now this is objectively the real-world state of affairs, and it is something that neither the political analysts in the US nor a significant faction of the European media class (which still views the European Union as a “big Puerto Rico”) can get used to. The significance of Puerto Rico is that it is a place outside the US borders, but that is in effect controlled from Washington, although it has no power to influence American policy. Incidentally, Washington’s official discourse in regard to the European Union has already undergone a radical transformation and, according to Trump himself, it seems that the EU was “formed to take advantage of the United States,” although prior to that the EU was painted in the official Western narrative exclusively in terms of its “ideals of freedom,” “protection of democracy,” and some kind of “pan-European destiny and values.”

    The essence of today’s transatlantic relationship can be seen in the contacts between Washington and Paris. Despite the White House’s high hopes for France to prove its loyalty to the alliance, its leaders have been just as firm as Germany’s in standing up for their own interests. This mindset was evident in the stance taken by President Emmanuel Macron, who was quoted by Bloomberg as saying “we won’t talk about anything while there’s a gun pointed at our head.” European leaders insist that any discussions take place with everyone on an equal footing, which Washington cannot indulge as a matter of principle. Even lower-level European officials are using their economic power to threaten the US. French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire claimed, “One thing I learned from my week in the U.S. with President Macron: The Americans will only respect a show of strength.” Needless to say, one does not speak to a real global hegemon in such terms.

    No matter what the outcome of all the diplomatic and economic conflicts between the two shores of the Atlantic, it is already safe to say that Europe has broken free of Washington’s grip, and future relations between the US and the EU will become increasingly tense. We shall soon see whether Europe will take advantage of its current opportunity to reclaim the economic and political freedom that it lost at some point.

  • Did Putin Green-Light Tonight's Massive Israeli Strikes On Syria?

    Just off a 10-hour visit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, and less than a day after Trump pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Wednesday he doesn’t expect Russia to act against Israeli forces as they continue exchanging fire with Syria. 

    It appears the meeting wrapped up at the very moments a major escalation began along the Golan Heights, with both Syria and Israel trading blame for an initial attack which quickly escalated into Israeli cruise missile launches and shelling on targets in southern Syria and notably, on Damascus itself.

    Putin and Netanyahu at the “Victory Day Parade” at Moscow’s Red Square on Wednesday. Image source: Reuters via Newsweek.

    The question remains, did Putin give Netanyahu the green light for tonight’s events? 

    If it wasn’t clear over the past weeks and months of unprovoked Israeli strikes on Syriaostensibly to roll back Iranian troop presencethen it should be very clear by now that Syria, Israel, and Iran are now in a state of war and all signs point to a continued intensification of the conflict. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    And crucially, there’s currently no sign that Russia came to the aid of its close ally as rockets rained down on Damascus overnight.  Russia has routinely looked the other way while Israel has conducted, by its own admission, over one hundred major strikes on Syriamost of which have come after Russian intervention on behalf of Assad in 2015. 

    As Reuters reported late in the day Wednesday, Netanyahu told reporters just before departing Moscow: “Given what is happening in Syria at this very moment, there is a need to ensure the continuation of military coordination between the Russian military and the Israel Defence Forces.” The Russians and Israelis coordinate their actions through a direct military hotline intended to avoid accidental clashes which could lead to escalation between the two countries. 

    A reportedly “upbeat” Netanyahu further said, “”In previous meetings, given statements that were putatively attributed to – or were made by – the Russian side, it was meant to have limited our freedom of action or harm other interests and that didn’t happen, and I have no basis to think that this time will be different.”

    Thus it appears Israel may have been given a green light by Putin to engage targets in Syria, however, at this point it is unclear what limitations or restrictions Putin may have issued, if any at all.  

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Furthermore, the context and timing of the Putin-Netanyahu meeting suggests an increasingly cozy and warming relationship even as the crisis intensifies in Syria. According to Reuters:

    During his 10-hour Moscow visit, the Israeli leader attended, alongside Putin, annual Red Square celebrations of the anniversary of the end of World War Two. Israel recognizes the Russian date, May 9. Most Western powers mark it on May 8.

    “When the president of Russia invites the prime minister of the state of the Jews to stand alongside him at the parade symbolizing the Red Army’s victory over the Nazis, its liberation, also, of the (concentration) camps, of Jews and others – for Russia, that is very significant,” Israeli Intelligence Minister Israel Katz told the Ynet news site.

    Reuters also noted that Israel has not joined Western sanctions against Russia over the crisis in Ukraine and allegations that its intelligence services poisoned a Russian ex-spy in Britain.

    Meanwhile things are escalating in Syria by the hour and by the day.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Early unconfirmed reports suggest Syrian defense systems may have intercepted multiple Israeli rockets, while the pro-opposition media site SOHR says an air strike near Damascus killed at least 15 people, including eight Iranians. Reports have cited Syrian military sources which claim “dozens” of Israeli rockets downed by Syrian air defenses during the sustained attack.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    As we’ve reported, Israel is claiming to be acting against Iranian aggression, while Syria state media reports cite government officials as saying no Iranians have engaged Israel and are not in the areas of Israeli attacks.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Pro-government Al-Mayadeen reported that as of 3am (Damascus time) over 50 Rockets had been launched at Israel by Syrian forces, and journalists on the ground said Israeli aircraft engaged targets near Damascus while flying over the border area.

    And into the early morning hours massive explosions were still being reported around Damascus. 

  • Another Step Towards Collapse Of The Petrodollar

    Authored by Rory Hall via The Daily Coin,

    For the past year and half a major topic throughout the alternative press has been the new Chinese oil futures contract settled/priced in yuan. The fact that China is directly challenging the Federal Reserve Note, U.S. dollar, is quite a significant change. For those that have been paying attention this new futures oil contract is nothing more than the next step in China moving completely away from the Federal Reserve Note, and the “world reserve currency” system and towards a multi-polar world with several currencies being used for international trade.

    Ken Schortgen, Jr., The Daily Economist, recently penned an article about Nigeria approving a currency swap agreement with China, stating,

    It has been a little more than a month since China officially began offering oil futures contracts denominated in the Yuan currency, but early results continue to be positive for this contract to over time take more and more market share from the West and the Petrodollar.  And with Iran, Qatar, and even Venezuela having already agreed to buy and sell their oil in currencies other than the dollar, a new currency swap agreement signed on May 3 between Nigeria and China could mean that a fourth OPEC nation could also soon be leaving the Petrodollar.

    The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has signed a currency swap deal worth about $2.5 billion with the People’s Bank of China to provide adequate local currency liquidity for transactions between national businesses, The Punch newspaper reported on Thursday, citing a high-ranking official from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). Sputnik News

    The Daily Economist

    While China pursued currency swaps as far back as 1997, during the “Asian financial crisis”, none of the agreements were ever activated. That all changed with the global financial meltdown in 2008. China began actively pursuing, and instituting, direct currency swaps and even went so far as to open “Renminbi Clearing Centers” around the world including Canada, the backyard of the U.S..

    Beyond the moderate progress in Asian regional financial cooperation, China has signed swap agreements with approximately 30 countries since 2008 (see Table 1). The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) stated that those swap agreements were intended not only to “stabilize the international financial market,” but also to “facilitate bilateral trade and investment.”

    CogitAsia

    The chart above, from CogitAsia, was produced in 2015 and does include Japan, Nigeria or France all of which are conducting direct currency swaps with China. All three nations bring something unique, economically speaking, to the table that will prove beneficial for both sides of the trade.

    China now has direct currency swaps with more than 30 nations, including some of the largest economies in the world, like Japan, France, Australia to name but a few. This is all part and parcel to circumventing the world reserve currency system which punishes other nations, while at the same time strengthens the U.S. economy. What’s terrible for the rest of the world is awesome for the U.S..

    China, along with a great many other nations, are ready for this system to change and balance the economic scale. When you announce to the world that your currency is someone else’s problem, the people that have the problem usually find a way to mend the problem and eliminate the situation creating the problem.

    Even the gloomiest pessimists accept that a steep dollar depreciation would inflict more suffering on China and other Asian economies than on the United States. John Snow’s counterpart in the Nixon administration once told his European counterparts that “the dollar is our currency, but your problem.”

    Snow could say the same to Asians today. If the dollar fell by a third against the renminbi, according to Nouriel Roubini, an economist at New York University, the People’s Bank of China could suffer a capital loss equivalent to 10 percent of China’s gross domestic product. For that reason alone, the P.B.O.C. has every reason to carry on printing renminbi in order to buy dollars. 

    NY Times

    This is exactly where we stand today.

    China, along with Russia, understand this scenario all too well. These two nations, along with 30+ other nations, are making moves to be rid of the problem known as the Federal Reserve Note, U.S. dollar.

    Once this “problem” is corrected the U.S. economy will change dramatically. Inflation, and according to some economist like John Williams of Shadow Stats, hyperinflation will reign down on the U.S. economy like the world has never seen or experienced before. At this juncture we can only hope cooler heads prevail and a major war doesn’t manifest to announce the coming change in our global monetary system.

     

  • Australia Bans Payments Over $10k, Unleashes "Mobile Strike Teams" In War On Cash

    As Australia struggles to maintain its unprecedented 104-quarter-long streak of uninterrupted economic growth, lawmakers are intensifying the country’s “war on cash” – ostensibly part of a crackdown on “criminal gangs” that are smuggling drugs and/or people into the island nation and companies that are trying to cheat their taxes.

    To wit, Australia’s government has introduced an economy-wide payment limit of $10,000 for transactions conducted in cash, which, according to News.au, will help (in the aussie slang) “keep dishonest tradies and businesses from rorting the system by taking cash in hand.”

    Treasury

    From July 1, 2019, cash payments of more than $10,000 made to businesses for goods and services will be banned as the Turnbull Government seeks to crack down on the $50 billion “black economy.”

    The law was purportedly inspired by instances of large purchases – yachts, sports cars and other luxury items – being made in cash and the tax not being reported.

    Perhaps the most – um – striking element of the proposal is the introduction of “mobile strike teams” to catch businesses engaging in the act of conducting an illicit cash transaction.

    Treasurer Scott Morrison said the Black Economy Standing Taskforce will be beefed up to detect people making sneaky cash transactions through a rigorous identification system and “mobile strike teams”.

    A black economy hotline will also be set up to allow people to dob in anyone who may be cheating the system.

    “Cash provides an easy, anonymous and largely untraceable mechanism for conducting black economy activity,” the response said.

    “Cash payments make it easier to under-report income and avoid tax obligations. This allows businesses transacting in cash to undercut competitors and gain a competitive advantage.”

    Meanwhile, Australia’s federal law enforcement are setting up a hotline for people to call in and “dob on their neighbors” who are violating the cash payments rule…

    A black economy hotline will also be set up to allow people to dob in anyone who may be cheating the system.

    “Cash provides an easy, anonymous and largely untraceable mechanism for conducting black economy activity,” the response said.

    “Cash payments make it easier to under-report income and avoid tax obligations. This allows businesses transacting in cash to undercut competitors and gain a competitive advantage.”

    …And the Australian taxation office is stepping up audits and upgrading its data analysis tools to help catch businesses that violate the law.

    It said the taskforce had identified examples of “large undocumented cash payments being made for houses, cars, yachts, agricultural crops and commodities,” which contribute to the $50 billion black economy and “hurt honest businesses.”

    The Australian Taxation Office will also carry out more audits and improve its data analytics in its effort to curb money laundering and criminal activity.

    The law is slated to take effect in 2019. After that, transactions involving businesses will need be routed through checks or electronic means. But transactions between individuals and financial institutions.

    The government will also overhaul how it handles the Australian Business Register, including possibly imposing more stringent requirements on renewing businesses’ operating licenses.

    This will be bad news for criminal gangs, terrorists and those who are just trying to cheat on their tax or get a discount for letting someone else cheat on their tax…

    It’s not clever. It’s not OK. It’s a crime.

    Australian lawmakers have backed the new system, which was introduced by the country’s Treasurer, Scott Morrison in his annual speech introducing his proposed national budget.

    In its response, the government said it agreed with or supported the majority of the recommendations, including potentially requiring wages to be paid into bank accounts, effectively outlawing cash-in-hand payments. Workers in the “gig economy” will also face greater scrutiny. The government said it was “encouraging the transition to a digital society.”

    Of course, while the government says its new system is targeted at criminals, we suspect there might be an ulterior motive: Given the rash of foreign investment that has propped up Australia’s housing and asset markets, the government is merely trying to stop a flood of capital from leaving the country – particularly now that rising interest rates in the developed world are making its bonds and currency less attractive by comparison.

  • Ebola's Back! Congo Outbreak Sees 21 Cases, 17 Deaths In Last Month

    Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

    The Democratic Republic of Congo has been alerted to an outbreak of Ebola.  In the past five weeks, there have been 21 cases of the infection reported, and 17 of those are now deceased.

    The government of the Democratic Republic of Congo declared the outbreak of Ebola hemorrhagic fever, a rare and deadly disease, on Tuesday, the World Health Organization reported.  

    The declaration of an outbreak came after laboratory results confirmed two cases of the disease in the province of Bikoro in the northwestern part of the country. Bikoro is situated on the shores of Lake Tumba near the border with the Republic of the Congo. The new cases were reported from a small health facility about 30 kilometers (19 miles) from Bikoro.

    The average case fatality rate for Ebola hemorrhagic fever is around 50%. The deadly virus most commonly affects people and nonhuman primates (monkeys, gorillas, and chimpanzees) and is caused by one of five Ebola viruses.

    “We will gather more samples, conduct contact tracing, engage the communities with messages on prevention and control, and put in place methods for improving data collection and sharing,” said Dr. Matshidiso Moeti, the WHO’s regional director for Africa.

    “WHO will work closely with health authorities and partners to support the national response.”

    Upon learning of the confirmed cases, the WHO alerted neighboring countries and set up its Incident Management System to fully dedicate staff and resources to the response. A government statement released Tuesday stated that the Ministry of Health has “taken all necessary measures to respond promptly and effectively to this new epidemic of Ebola in the DRC’s national territory.”

    Unfortunately, the DRC has a history with the Ebola virus. This is its ninth outbreak of Ebola virus disease since the discovery of the virus in the country in 1976. The last outbreak, in 2017, was quickly contained.  There are hopes that a quick response will all see this recent outbreak contained rapidly as well. WHO has also released $1 million from a contingency fund to support its activities in the containment efforts of this outbreak for the next three months.

    Speaking on behalf of the Democratic Republic of Congo Minister of Health, Lambert Matuku, the Minister of State and Labor, said, it is “a worrisome sanitary situation.”

  • Mastermind Behind 9/11 Attacks Wants To Chime In On Haspel CIA Confirmation

    The mastermind behind the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the United States wants to weigh in on the confirmation of CIA Director nominee Gina Haspel, offering to provide legislators with six paragraphs of testimony about his interrogations.

    Al Qaeda leader Khalid Shaikh Mohammed asked military judge James Pohl for permission to share “six paragraphs” of testimony about Haspel with the Senate Intelligence Committee. Mohammed was captured in 2003 and waterboarded by the CIA over 180 times, while Haspel ran a “black site” in Thailand in 2002 which employed enhanced interrogation techniques.

    On Monday, Mr. Mohammed submitted a request to the judge overseeing pretrial hearings in that case, Army Col. James Pohl, Colonel Poteet said. While the file is not public on the commissions docket, Colonel Poteet said it consisted of an expedited motion for permission to provide the information to the committee about Ms. Haspel.

    The motion, Colonel Poteet said, included an attachment, titled, “Additional Facts, Law and Argument in Support,” containing “six specific paragraphs of information” from Mr. Mohammed that his client thinks the Intelligence Committee should know. After Mr. Mohammed raised the idea, his defense lawyers agreed that the information was important, Colonel Poteet said.-New York Times

    Haspel came under fire in March, after reports in the New York Times and ProPublica reported Haspell’s involvement in the black site, as well as the decision to destroy 92 videotapes of the enhanced interrogation of Abu Zubaydah, a suspected al-Qaeda leader.  

    Mohammed joins Democrats in trying to sink Haspel’s nomination, after several Democratic senators have demanded that the Trump administration declassify more information about her role in the program. 

    This month, four Democratic senators on the Intelligence Committee — Kamala D. Harris and Dianne Feinstein, both of California; Ron Wyden of Oregon; and Martin Heinrich of New Mexico — wrote to Daniel Coats, the director of national intelligence, asking him to declassify all C.I.A. information related to Ms. Haspel’s involvement in the program before her hearing, since she, as acting director of the agency, has declined to do so on her own. –NYT

    On Monday the CIA delivered a set of classified documents to the Senate, describing Haspell’s 33-year career at the agency, “including her time in C.I.A’s Counterterrorism Center in the years after 9/11.” The files are available for every senator to read. 

    “I am not able to describe the information,” he said. He added that it came from Mr. Mohammed himself, not from files turned over by the government to defense lawyers about the treatment of their client in C.I.A. custody. –NYT

    The Department of Justice wrote several secret memos during the Bush administration which approved CIA “enhanced interrogation” techniques – including waterboarding.

    The memos were later withdrawn, and Congress enacted a law which limited interrogators to the techniques listed in the Army Field Manual. The CIA’s internal inspector General found that agency interrogators would sometimes overstep the outlined techniques provided to the Justice Department for legal analysis – while the Senate report concluded that the CIA lied to the White House and other administration officials over the use of such techniques – portraying them as more effective than they actually were.

    “The American people deserve transparency regarding the background of a nominee who will be asked to represent them, and their values, around the world,” wrote the Democratic senators seeking declassification of Haspel’s conduct, adding, “Without making this information available to the American people, Ms. Haspel’s nomination cannot be fully and properly considered by the Senate.

    Reactions have varied, though we were unable to find much support for Mohammed’s request from the left:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

     

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  • Bernie's (Latest) Boondoggle

    Authored by Daniel Mitchell via International Liberty blog,

    When I wrote about “crazy Bernie Sanders” in 2016, I wasn’t just engaging in literary hyperbole. The Vermont Senator is basically an unreconstructed leftist with a disturbing affinity for crackpot ideas and totalitarian regimes.

    His campaign agenda that year was an orgy of new taxes and higher spending.

    Though it’s worth noting that he’s at least crafty enough to steer clear of pure socialism. He wants massive increases in taxes, spending, and regulation, but even he doesn’t openly advocate government ownership of factories.

    Then again, there probably wouldn’t be any factories to nationalize if Sanders was ever successful in saddling the nation with a Greek-sized public sector.

    He’s already advocated a “Medicare-for-All” scheme with a 10-year price tag of $15 trillion, for instance. And now he has a new multi-trillion dollar proposal for guaranteed jobs.

    In a column for the Washington Post, Robert Samuelson dissects Bernie’s latest vote-buying scheme. Here’s a description of what Senator Sanders apparently wants.

    Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) wants the federal government to guarantee a job for every American willing and able to work. The proposal sounds compassionate and enlightened, but in practice, it would almost certainly be a disaster. …Just precisely how Sanders’s scheme would work is unclear, because he hasn’t yet submitted detailed legislation. However, …a job-guarantee plan devised by economists at Bard College’s Levy Economics Institute…suggests how a job guarantee might function. …anyone needing a job could get one at a uniform wage of $15 an hour, plus health insurance (probably Medicare) and other benefits (importantly: child care). When fully deployed, the program would create 15 million public-service jobs, estimate the economists. …the federal government would pay the costs, the program would be administered by states, localities and nonprofit organizations.

    As you might expect, the fiscal costs would be staggering (and, like most government programs, would wind up being even more expensive than advertised).

    This would be huge: about five times the number of existing federal jobs (2.8 million) and triple the number of state government jobs (5 million). …The proposal would add to already swollen federal budget deficits. The Bard economists put the annual cost at about $400 billion. …overall spending is likely underestimated.

    But the budgetary costs would just be the beginning.

    Bernie’s scheme would basically destroy a big chunk of the job market since people in low-wage and entry-level jobs would seek to take advantage of the new government giveaway.

    …uncovered workers might stage a political rebellion or switch from today’s low-paying private-sector jobs to the better-paid public-service jobs… The same logic applies to child-care subsidies.

    And there are many other unanswered questions about how the plan would work.

    Does the federal government have the managerial competence to oversee the creation of so many jobs? …Can the new workers be disciplined? …Finally, would state and local governments substitute federally funded jobs for existing jobs that are supported by local taxes?

    If the plan ever got adopted, the only silver lining to the dark cloud is that it would provide additional evidence that government programs don’t work.

    The irony is that, by assigning government tasks likely to fail, the advocates of activist government bring government into disrepute.

    But that silver lining won’t matter much since a bigger chunk of the population will be hooked on the heroin of government dependency.

    In other words, just as it’s now difficult to repeal Obamacare even though we know it doesn’t work, it also would be difficult to repeal make-work government jobs.

    So we may have plenty of opportunity to mock Bernie Sanders, but he may wind up with the last laugh.

    P.S. Regarding getting people into productive work, I figure the least destructive approach would be “job training” programs.

    Beyond that, I’m not sure whether make-work government jobs are more harmful or basic income is more harmful.

  • Here's How Much A Luxury Apartment Costs In America's Priciest Rental Markets

    From Brooklyn to San Francisco, developers have been on a high-end housing binge in recent years, with apartments considered “high end” sometimes accounting for more than 75% of all construction.

    But how much does it cost to live in a building with amenities that sometimes include a pool, 24-hour fitness and wellness centers, on-site theaters, rooms and cafes?

    Cities

    A recent study by RentCafe found that the national average rent in a luxury complex is around $1,640 per month, or about $490 more than an apartment in a less-fancy building.

    But of course, that price can vary wildly from city to city, even when they’re in the same state.

    Chart

    For the same price as a luxury studio in San Francisco, you can rent a luxury 3-bedroom apartment in San Diego. In 12 cities you can rent a luxury studio for under $1,200 per month, and in 11 cities $1,500 gets you a high-end two-bedroom.

    But in Manhattan, the most expensive market, a studio will run you $4,500.

    Here’s a breakdown of the cities from least expensive to most expensive, courtesy of RentCafe.

    * * *

    El Paso, Texas

    Average rent in a high-end apartment: $976

    Price range: $852 (1-bed) to $1,194 (3-bed)

    Change in high-end rents in the last 3 years: -1.3%

    Price difference compared to a low-end apartment: $291

    2. Oklahoma City, OK

    Average rent in a high-end apartment: $1,024

    Price range: $872 (studio) to $1,295 (3-bed)

    Change in high-end rents in the last 3 years: -0.9%

    Price difference compared to a low-end apartment: $368

    3. Las Vegas, NV

    Average rent in a high-end apartment: $1,102

    Price range: $838 (studio) to $1,322 (3-bed)

    Change in high-end rents in the last 3 years: +18.4%

    Price difference compared to a low-end apartment: $284

    4. Louisville, KY

    Average rent in a high-end apartment: $1,123

    Price range: $832 (studio) to $1,500 (3-bed)

    Change in high-end rents in the last 3 years: +4.9%

    Price difference compared to a low-end apartment: $3125.

    5. Memphis, TN

    Average rent in a high-end apartment: $1,134
    Price range: $988 (studio) to $1,476 (3-bed)

    Change in high-end rents in the last 3 years: +8.8%

    Price difference compared to a low-end apartment: $486

    6. Phoenix, AZ

    Average rent in a high-end apartment: $1,154

    Price range: $999 (studio) to $1,378 (3-bed)

    Change in high-end rents in the last 3 years: +16.3%

    Price difference compared to a low-end apartment: $351

    7. Jacksonville, FL

    Average rent in a high-end apartment: $1,173

    Price range: $1,010 (studio) to $1,434 (3-bed)

    Change in high-end rents in the last 3 years: +12.9%

    Price difference compared to a low-end apartment: $347

    8. San Antonio, TX

    Average rent in a high-end apartment: $1,176

    Price range: $1,029 (studio) to $1,537 (3-bed)

    Change in high-end rents in the last 3 years: +5.4%

    Price difference compared to a low-end apartment: $351

    9. Indianapolis, IN

    Average rent in a high-end apartment: $1,191

    Price range: $1,137 (studio) to $1,394 (3-bed)

    Change in high-end rents in the last 3 years: +11.3%

    Price difference compared to a low-end apartment: $453 10.

    10. Charlotte, NC

    Average rent in a high-end apartment: $1,247

    Price range: $1,157 (studio) to $1,455 (3-bed)

    Change in high-end rents in the last 3 years: +11.0%

    Price difference compared to a low-end apartment: $347

    11. Columbus, OH

    Average rent in a high-end apartment: $1,319

    Price range: $992 (studio) to $2,047 (3-bed)

    Change in high-end rents in the last 3 years: +10.0%

    Price difference compared to a low-end apartment: $528

    12. Dallas, TX

    Average rent in a high-end apartment: $1,428

    Price range: $1,165 (studio) to $2,049 (3-bed)

    Change in high-end rents in the last 3 years: +7.4%

    Price difference compared to a low-end apartment: $524 13.

    Austin, TX

    Average rent in a high-end apartment: $1,432

    Price range: $1,247 (studio) to $1,891 (3-bed)

    Change in high-end rents in the last 3 years: +6.7%

    Price difference compared to a low-end apartment: $371

    14. Houston, TX

    Average rent in a high-end apartment: $1,448

    Price range: $1,229 (studio) to $1,848 (3-bed)

    Change in high-end rents in the last 3 years: +1.8%

    Price difference compared to a low-end apartment: $608

    15. Nashville, TN

    Average rent in a high-end apartment: $1,513

    Price range: $1,410 (studio) to $1,745 (3-bed)

    Change in high-end rents in the last 3 years: +14.1%

    Price difference compared to a low-end apartment: $502 16.

    16. Detroit, MI

    Average rent in a high-end apartment: $1,652

    Price range: $1,061 (studio) to $1,878 (3-bed)

    Change in high-end rents in the last 3 years: +21.7%

    Price difference compared to a low-end apartment: $769

    17. Portland, OR

    Average rent in a high-end apartment: $1,691

    Price range: $1,378 (studio) to $1,950 (3-bed)

    Change in high-end rents in the last 3 years: +9.0%

    Price difference compared to a low-end apartment: $484

    18. Baltimore, MD

    Average rent in a high-end apartment: $1,742

    Price range: $1,384 (studio) to $2,123 (3-bed)

    Change in high-end rents in the last 3 years: +0.4%

    Price difference compared to a low-end apartment: $680

    19. Denver, CO

    Average rent in a high-end apartment: $1,756

    Price range: $1,399 (studio) to $2,439 (3-bed)

    Change in high-end rents in the last 3 years: +8.4% Price difference compared to a low-end apartment: $499

    20. Philadelphia, PA

    Average rent in a high-end apartment: $2,197

    Price range: $1,623 (studio) to $3,677 (3-bed)

    Change in high-end rents in the last 3 years: +8.2%

    Price difference compared to a low-end apartment: $925

    21. Seattle, WA

    Average rent in a high-end apartment: $2,261

    Price range: $1,723 (studio) to $3,595 (3-bed)

    Change in high-end rents in the last 3 years: +13.2%

    Price difference compared to a low-end apartment: $644

    22. San Diego, CA

    Average rent in a high-end apartment: $2,376

    Price range: $1,847 (studio) to $3,105 (3-bed)

    Change in high-end rents in the last 3 years: +14.8%

    Price difference compared to a low-end apartment: $704

    23. Chicago, IL

    Average rent in a high-end apartment: $2,465

    Price range: $1,747 (studio) to $4,905 (3-bed)

    Change in high-end rents in the last 3 years: +4.8%

    Price difference compared to a low-end apartment: $1,078

    24. Washington, DC

    Average rent in a high-end apartment: $2,591

    Price range: $1,952 (studio) to $4,670 (3-bed)

    Change in high-end rents in the last 3 years: +1.8%

    Price difference compared to a low-end apartment: $841

    25. San Jose, CA

    Average rent in a high-end apartment: $2,849 Price range: $2,262 (studio) to $3,716 (3-bed)

    Change in high-end rents in the last 3 years: +8.7%

    Price difference compared to a low-end apartment: $637

    26. Los Angeles, CA

    Average rent in a high-end apartment: $3,028

    Price range: $2,181 (studio) to $5,201 (3-bed)

    Change in high-end rents in the last 3 years: +9.7%

    Price difference compared to a low-end apartment: $1,093

    27. Brooklyn, NYC

    Average rent in a high-end apartment: $3,285

    Price range: $2,630 (studio) to $5,728 (3-bed)

    Change in high-end rents in the last 3 years: N/A

    Price difference compared to a low-end apartment: $1,352

    28. Boston, MA

    Average rent in a high-end apartment: $3,526

    Price range: $2,579 (studio) to $5,630 (3-bed)

    Change in high-end rents in the last 3 years: +5.3%

    Price difference compared to a low-end apartment: $1,048

    29. San Francisco, CA

    Average rent in a high-end apartment: $4,132

    Price range: $3,157 (studio) to $6,812 (3-bed)

    Change in high-end rents in the last 3 years: +4.2%

    Price difference compared to a low-end apartment: $1,125

    30. Manhattan, NYC

    Average rent in a high-end apartment: $4,416

    Price range: $3,179 (studio) to $8,163 (3-bed)

    Change in high-end rents in the last 3 years: N/A

    Price difference compared to a low-end apartment: $1,035

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 9th May 2018

  • Firepower: Russian Troops Get New Kalashnikov Assault Rifles

    As the United States Army marches towards acquiring the LSAT (Lightweight Small Arms Technologies) light machine gun for their infantry, Russia’s Defense Ministry recently purchased the newest family of Kalashnikov assault rifles for Russian soldiers.

    Russian soldier aims the new AK-12 assault rifle. (Source: Sergey Bobylev, TASS)

    The Russian Defense Ministry confirmed in January that it acquired advanced Kalashnikov AK-12 and AK-15 assault rifles for service, which shoot 5.45×39 mm and 7.62×39 mm cartridges, respectively.

    “A decision has been made on the AK-12 and the AK-15. The submachine guns have been recommended as armament in the ground forces, the airborne force and [naval] infantry,” the Kalashnikov press office said in January, according to Russian News Agency TASS.

    AK-15 (left) and AK-12. (SourceVasily Raksha) 

    Kalashnikov Group CEO Alexei Krivoruchko told TASS that a series of field training exercises were completed with the advanced assault rifles last year. He added that the firearms manufacturer would be shipping the advanced weapons to the Russian Armed Forces in 2018.

    “New Kalashnikov rifles combine famous, battle-proven high reliability with modern ergonomics, increased hit probability and capabilities to effectively use all modern accessories, from red dot, night and IR sights to underbarrel grenade launchers, forward grips, lasers and flashlights, sound suppressors and more.

    AK-12 and AK-15 rifles share most of its arts and assemblies, with key differences being in the ammunition used. AK-12 is chambered for Russian Army standard issue 5.45×39 ammunition, while AK-15 is chambered for older, but still very popular 7.62×39 ammunition. “Kalashnikov” group also designed compact versions of both rifles, known as AK-12K and AK-12K, which are better suited for CQB use by Special Forces, or as Personal Defense Weapons for heavy armament and vehicle crews,” the Kalashnikov Group said in a press statement.

    The AK-12 and AK-15 specifications:

    • Caliber: 5.45х39 (AK-12) or 7.62х39 (AK-15)

    • Length, overall: 34-37 inches

    • Length, shoulder stock folded: 27 inches

    • Barrel length: 16.33 inches

    • Weight, with empty magazine: 7.7 lbs

    • Rate of fire: 700 rounds/min

    • Magazine capacity: 30 rounds

    Russia Beyond Tests The AK-12 Assult Rifle: 

    The advanced assault rifles are part of the Russian military’s “Ratnik” program, which is designed to create future infantry combat systems, including upgraded body armor, high-tech kevlar helmets with special eye monitor (thermal, night vision monocular, flashlight), and communication systems. Initially, only Russian Spetsnaz will receive the AK-12 as part of the Ratnik program, while ground troops will continue using AK-74 into the early 2020s.

    According to Dmitry Semizorov, the CEO of the Central Research Institute of Precision Machine-Making, Russia’s Ratnik combat gear has been successfully tested in the Syrian civil war.

    “You all probably know that the Ratnik was used in Syria and I want to say that the combat gear proved its worth during combat operations. We checked the combat outfit that was used in difficult situations in one way or another. I want to assure you that none of the elements of the combat gear’s protection was ever pierced,” said Semizorov.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    While the global arms race between Washington and Moscow is clearly evident, what we do know today is that both countries are rapidly modernizing their standard military rifles before the next major shooting war.

  • Armenia Elects New Prime Minister, Confirms Alliance With Russia

    Authored via The Duran,

    New Armenian leader confirms Armenia will retain its alliance with Russia…

    Weeks of crisis in Armenia have ended with the Armenian parliament’s election of opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan Prime Minister.

    He was the only candidate after it became clear that the ruling Republican party’s attempts to install its own candidate in place of its retired leader Serzh Sargsyan – whose attempt to appoint himself Prime Minister triggered the crisis – was unacceptable to large sections of the Armenian public.

    Almost the first steps Pashinyan has taken as Armenia’s new leader is pledge to continue Armenia’s military alliance with Russia – which he says (correctly) is essential for Armenia’s security – and say that Armenia will remain a member of the Russian led Eurasian Union.

    Pashinyan has also said that he intends to attend the forthcoming Eurasian Union summit meeting, where he intends to meet Russian President Putin for the first time.

    Pashinyan has expressed opposition in the past to Armenia’s membership of the Eurasian Union.  That will undoubtedly lead some to suspect that his recent pledges to continue Armenia’s alliance with Russia and to keep Armenia inside the Eurasian Union are cynical manoeuvres intended to buy him time whilst he builds up his power base so that he can chip away at the links to Russia later.

    I take a different view.  I think it more likely that Pashinyan’s earlier criticisms were simply intended to distinguish him from Sargsyan and the Republicans, and now that he has achieved his purpose of becoming Armenia’s Prime Minister they will be quietly forgotten.

    Even if that is wrong, the very fact that Pashinyan has felt obliged to make these pledges as soon as it became clear that he would become Prime Minister speaks for itself.

    The simple fact is that Pashinyan would almost certainly not have become Armenia’s Prime Minister if he had not made these pledges.  Quite simply there is no critical mass in Armenia of opponents of the nation’s alliance with Russia sufficient to propel to power a politician who pledges to end that alliance.  Far too many Armenians realise that given Armenia’s difficult geopolitical environment the alliance with Russia is – as Pashinyan says – essential for Armenia’s security to make it possible for an Armenian politician who wishes to end that alliance to gain power.

    That immediately limits what Pashinyan can do, even if he secretly does wish to break with Russia, which as it happens I strongly doubt.

  • Short Of War, China Now Controls South China Sea

    Authored by Richard Javad Heydarian via The Asia Times ,

    Beijing’s new missile deployment to contested land features has tilted the maritime area’s balance of power in its favor. Will the US respond?

    Tensions in the South China Sea are on the boil again amid new reports that China has deployed advanced missiles to land features in the disputed maritime area.

    According to new reports, China has installed several Surface-to-Air Missiles (SAMs) and Anti-Cruise Ballistic Missiles (ACBMs) systems across the Paracel and Spratly island chains, parts of which are claimed by multiple regional states including the Philippines and Vietnam.

    Weeks earlier, China also deployed electronic jamming equipment to the maritime area, giving it the ability to disrupt the command-and-control communications of rival states’ military assets operating in the South China Sea.

    China’s neighbors and rivals fear that the Asian powerhouse is slowly but surely establishing the foundation of an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in one of the world’s most important and busy waterways. Over US$5 trillion worth of global trade traversed the sea last year.

    Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy warships and fighter jets take part in a military display in the South China Sea, April 12, 2018. Photo: Reuters/Stringer

    Boosting China’s missile defense system in the area would allow it to progressively restrict the movement as well as squeeze the supply lines of smaller claimant states, all of which maintain comparatively modest military capabilities to fortify their sea claims.

    The reports immediately rekindled tensions between China and key Southeast Asian claimant states, including the Philippines. Crucially, it has also reignited an ongoing debate between doves and hawks within the Philippine government.

    In recent days, images of Chinese military assets in Philippine-claimed features, namely the Fiery Cross, Mischief and Subi reefs, have dominated news headlines in Manila.

    Senior Filipino defense officials have repeatedly expressed concerns over China’s militarization of the disputed area. Earlier this year, Philippine Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana claimed that China promised not to deploy more military assets to Philippine-claimed land features.

    The recent reports will thus likely be interpreted by Filipino top brass as a betrayal of trust while giving new ammunition to already strong anti-China rally cries among nationalistic Filipinos.

    Amid rising public pressure for the Philippine government to take a harder stance, the Senate is scheduled to conduct an inquiry into the direction of Philippine-China relations and ways to protect the country’s interest in the South China Sea.

    Philippine Foreign Secretary Alan Peter Cayetano, known for his dovish position on China, has inn recent days tried to strike a new balance: “We’re taking it seriously. We’re verifying the information [about the deployment of missile systems].”

    “The problem is it can’t be solved just by the Philippines and China,” claimed the Philippines’ top diplomat. “This is what the President was saying, that it’s not directed at us, but of course our allies and defense are saying that they may have missiles there. It could affect anyone.”

    Cayetano promised to coordinate with defense authorities, including the defense secretary and the national security adviser, to verify the reports and consider an appropriate response.

    In a high-profile press conference, the US Ambassador to the Philippines, Sung Kim, expressed his concern over any “aggressive unilateral action toward militarization,” while saying that China is “moving toward militarization” of the disputes.

    In Washington, the White House took a more strident stance. White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders told media that the Trump administration has “raised concerns” with China, warning the Asian powerhouse about “near-term and long-term consequences” if there was not a change of course.

    US Navy sailors move aircraft from an elevator into the hangar bay of the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt in the South China Sea, April 8, 2018. Photo: US Navy via Reuters/Michael Hogan/Handout

    A top Pentagon official told CNBC that China’s deployment of missile defense systems in the South China Sea shows “the further militarization of [artificially-created] outposts” by China and “will only serve to raise tensions and create greater distrust among claimants.”

    Last month, Admiral Philip Davidson, the incoming chief of the US Navy’s Pacific Command, said in written testimony to the US Senate Armed Services Committee that China’s militarization of the disputes represent “a substantial challenge to US military operations in this region.”

    “The only thing lacking are deployed forces. Once occupied, China will be able to extend its influence thousands of miles to the south and project power deep into Oceania,” warned the American admiral. “In short, China is now capable of controlling the South China Sea in all scenarios short of war with the United States.”

    Under President Donald Trump’s administration, the US has stepped up its freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea, aiming to deter the establishment of a full-fledged Chinese exclusion zone in the area.

    Against that backdrop, US and Philippine forces launched on Monday their largest joint military exercises under Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, who previously aimed to scale down the so-called Balikatan, or shoulder-to-shoulder, drills in a move seen as appeasing China.

    A US Marine runs with a Philippine soldier during joint drills aimed at Philippine Naval base San Antonio, Zambales, October 9, 2015. Photo: Reuters/Erik De Castro

    Filipino officials insisted the regular exercises, comprised this year of around 8,000 Philippine and US forces as well as contingents from Japan and Australia, were not trained on China and focused more on counterterrorism.

    China, for its part, has remained adamant that its actions are purely defensive. “Our peaceful construction activities on the Nansha [Spratly] Islands, including the deployment of necessary national defense facilities, are meant to safeguard China’s sovereignty and security, which is also the rights a sovereign state is entitled to,” China’s Defense Ministry spokesman Hua Chunying recently said.

    Despite a growing public backlash, Duterte seems determined to continue with his rapprochement with China. In a controversial speech on May 4, the Filipino president went so far as to claim that China aims to protect, rather than imperil, the Philippines’ national interests.

    “China said, ‘We will protect you. We will not allow the Philippines to be destroyed. We are just here and you can call for our help anytime,’” said Duterte, desperately seeking to assuage rising criticism of his close relations with Beijing.

    Harry Roque, Duterte’s spokesman, claimed that “we are confident that those missiles are not directed at us,” given the “recently developed close relationship and friendship” between the Philippines and China. He did not explain, however, to whom the projectiles are pointed at instead.

  • Here’s How Much Marijuana Costs In The United States Vs Canada

    Submitted by Priceonomics

    A tidal wave of change is hitting the cannabis industry in both the United States and Canada.

    In the United States, medical marijuana is now legal in 29 states. Not only that, but the recreational use of marijuana is now legal in 10 states. You can walk into a licensed store in places like California, Oregon and Colorado and purchase cannabis nearly as easily as buying beer.

    Similar dynamics are taking place in Canada. Medical marijuana consumption was first legalized in 2001, and in 2017 legislation paved the way for the legalization of recreational use throughout all of Canada — a development that’s expected to be implemented in the summer of this year.

    With the emergence of legal weed in the US and Canada, we were curious, in which country is it more expensive? How does the price of marijuana vary across cities in the United States and Canada?

    We analyzed data from Priceonomics customer Wikileaf, a company that tracks cannabis prices at dispensaries across the US and Canada and aggregated the data at the national level and find out the answers.

    We discovered that cannabis is 30% less expensive in Canada than the United States. When you look at different cities, the price differential can be even more pronounced. Legal marijuana is 39% cheaper in Vancouver than San Francisco, for example.

    ***

    We begin our analysis by looking at the average price of an eighth of an ounce of marijuana in the United States versus Canada at the beginning of April 2018. Throughout this piece, Canadian prices are converted to US dollars to make the price comparison consistent.

    Across dispensaries tracked by Wikileaf in the United States, the price of an eighth of marijuana is $40.0, compared to $27.9 in Canada, where it is 30% cheaper.

    Part of the reason cannabis is so much cheaper in Canada than the United States is there is a much longer history of legalization in Canada, and thus a larger supply of legal marijuana growers and sellers. While cannabis companies in the United States can’t even have bank accounts, in Canada there are publicly traded cannabis companies on the stock market. In anticipation of nationwide legalization this year, supply of marijuana continues to grow.

    Next we look at the price difference between the two countries based on the size of the purchase? Is Canadian marijuana still less expensive if you buy a small amount (a gram) versus large amount (an ounce)?

    At every quantity purchased, it’s much cheaper to buy in Canada versus the United States. At the bottom of the chart, we calculate the percentage discount of Canadian weed versus American. Interestingly, the largest quantity you purchase, the smaller the price discount in Canada is. It turns out that in the United States, they give you a larger bulk discount on weed.

    Since the beginning of 2018, the prices of weed in Canada and the United States have been very stable. Below we chart the weekly average price for an eighth of an ounce of cannabis on Wikileaf since the new year:

    In the past year, the price of marijuana has been extremely stable in both the United States and Canada.

    ***

    Lastly, we conclude by looking at the price of marijuana in the most popular cities among Wikileaf users in the United States and Canada. Is there a large variation in the price of weed in the Canadian cities Vancouver and Toronto? How about in US cities like San Francisco, Seattle, Denver, Portland, and Los Angeles?

    San Francisco, a city which wins a lot of these “most expensive awards” (toast, real estate, coffee, etc), also has the most expensive marijuana of all the cities we looked at. In San Francisco, an eighth of an ounce of weed is 12% more expensive than in Seattle and 20% more expensive than in Los Angeles. 

    When compared to its US counterparts, the Canadian cities of Toronto and Vancouver offer a substantial discount. Someone from San Francisco visiting Vancouver can purchase weed at 39% discount compared to at home. 

    ***

    So, it turns out marijuana is about 30% cheaper in Canada than the United States. Those differences have persisted all year and are pervasive at all purchase sizes. By most accounts, the demand for marijuana in Canada is quite high, so that is unlikely to be the reason for the price discount versus the United States. 

    Instead, cannabis is cheaper in Canada because there has been a longer history of a legal supply of weed.  With marijuana, as with most things, when the supply is high, the prices are not.

  • Is "The Big One" Coming? Los Angeles Area Rocked By 4.5 Magnitude Earthquake

    Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

    An earthquake this morning rattled a wide swath of Southern California, sparking fears that this may not be the worst. 

    The 4.5 magnitude quake struck near Cabazon about 6 miles south-southeast of Mt. San Gorgonio just before 5 am local time.

    Residents felt the quake and warned others to be prepared because this was minor compared to historical quakes, and the close proximity to the San Andres fault line.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    No damage has been reported yet as the magnitude appears to be fairly small, but the shaking was felt by residents across the Inland Empire. The quake occurred at 4:49 a.m. at a depth of 8 miles, the U.S Geological Survey said. Its epicenter was located in Riverside County, 6.8 miles north of Cabazon and 20 miles northwest of Palm Springs. It originally was measured as a 4.6 quake before being downgraded to a 4.5 magnitude. 

    According to The LA Times, the quake was followed by several aftershocks. This marks the second time in little more than a month when the region was hit by a small quake felt over a large area. On April 5, a 5.3-magnitude quake centered in the Channel Islands off Santa Barbara County rattled nerves.

    But experts have recently said that the Hayward Bay faultline in the San Francisco Bay area is more dangerous and volatile than the infamous San Andreas fault line. However, a large quake on either fault line would impact millions and cause untold amounts of damage based solely on population density.

    The scariest scenario for the next major earthquake may not be from the San Andreas Fault (though that one still threatens), but from the Hayward Fault that runs along the east side of the San Francisco Bay. In fact, many say that the next earthquake on the Hayward Bay fault line would be “disastrous.”According to KTUV, a magnitude 7.0 earthquake along the Hayward Fault could kill as many as 800 people and injure 18,000, according to results of a new research released Wednesday. –SHTFPlan

    According to Business Insider, the statistical chances of this type of an earthquake occurring on the Hayward Bay fault line are not very comforting either. There’s about a 76% chance that the San Francisco Bay Area could experience a 7.2 magnitude earthquake within the next 30 years, according to some recent reports.

  • Pompeo Expected To Return With 3 Americans Held In North Korea

    Shortly after arriving in Pyongyang for meetings with North Korean officials, news broke that the new US Secretary of State may have a big surprise when he returns to the US: according to Yonhap, which cited a South Korean presidential official, North Korea is expected to release three U.S. citizens held in the communist state “in an apparent goodwill gesture ahead of a historic meeting between its leader Kim Jong-un and U.S. President Donald Trump.”

    The official reportedly added that Pompeo was expected to return with “the exact time of the Trump-Kim summit, along with the three U.S. captives in North Korea.”

    “We expect him to bring the date, time and the captives,” the official said, while speaking on condition of anonymity.

    Pompeo arrived in Pyongyang earlier in the day, according to reports, marking his second trip to the reclusive North in less than a month, although this one not nearly as top secret as his first one over Easter.

    Trump earlier said the location of his meeting with Kim has already been set.

    Pompeo earlier said the North’s release of the three U.S. citizens would be a “great gesture,” noting the U.S. has been asking for their freedom for 17 months. Pompeo was earlier expected to bring the three captives through the inter-Korean border, but the Cheong Wa Dae official said that will likely not be the case. The three U.S. citizens are all said to be Korean-Americans.

    It was not clear when Pompeo is set to leave Pyongyang.

     

  • No Country For 'Old White Guys'

    After millions of baby boomers lost their life savings during the financial crisis (a catastrophe for which no senior bankers were ever held accountable), more old white men are being forced out of retirement or simply being forced to work until a much later age.

    Unfortunately for older Americans, rampant ageism in the workforce is making it difficult to get well-paying work – or even, as the following case shows, a job at the local restaurant and bar.

    To wit, Darden’s Season 52 chain of restaurants was has been forced to pay $2.85 million to settle a federal lawsuit brought by the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission  alleging that job candidates interviewing for jobs at the chain’s 41 locations had been told that they wouldn’t be considered because the company didn’t hire “old white guys,” according to the Orlando Sentinel.

    “Often, discrimination cases are hard to prove,” said David Seltzer, an attorney on the case with the EEOC’s Miami district office. “But here, Seasons 52 interviews across locations repeatedly told applicants things like ‘We don’t hire people over 40,’ ‘Seasons 52 girls are younger and fresh’ or asked them for their date of birth, high school graduation date or a driver’s license.”

    […]

    The EEOC alleged that one manager bluntly said Seasons 52 didn’t employ “old white guys.'”

    Though the company escaped an admission of liability (and continues to deny the allegations) it will now be required to hold new training for all hiring managers regarding “age-neutral and non-discriminatory recruiting, interviewing, and hiring; and how to avoid stereotypes in hiring and in the workplace, including ageism and age stereotypes.”

    Also, the victims of the company’s purported discrimination will be invited to reapply for positions at the restaurant. Season 52 has also been required to have its hiring practices monitored for three years by an independent attorney.

    The case, which was filed in February 2015, alleged that Darden’s Seasons 52 chain tried to portray a “young and hip” image by hiring younger servers and hosts.

    Season

    Both the plaintiffs and Darden said they were happy to put the case behind them, while the plaintiffs said the victory was an important step toward showing American employers that older workers could keep up (though we imagine the victory won’t impact the decision making of managers at independent restaurants and bars across the country).

    “We are pleased to resolve this EEOC matter,” said a statement from Darden spokesman Hunter Robinson. “Putting this behind us is good for Seasons 52, good for our team members and good for our shareholders.”

    […]

    “In Florida, we’ve seen over the years numerous situations where there’s a preference for younger workers over older workers, whether it’s just for show, or they don’t think older people can do the work because they don’t think they can keep up,” said Robert Weisberg, an attorney in the EEOC’s Miami office. “It’s a pervasive problem in many industries and particularly pervasive in hospitality.”

    One lawyer who spoke with the Sentinel described the case as a “significant victory” for the EEOC and the nation’s (rapidly swelling) number of senior citizens who are being forced to continue working – or in some cases reenter the workforce – in the aftermath of the financial crisis.

    No doubt, most Americans know somebody who is being forced to linger in the workforce for longer than they ideally would’ve liked.

    As we pointed out last year, almost 19% of people 65 or older were working at least part-time in the second quarter of 2017, according to the US jobs report released on Friday. The age group’s employment/population ratio hasn’t been higher in 55 years, before American retirees won better health care and Social Security benefits starting in the late 1960s.

    Least the millennials who are presently dominating the American workforce hope they might be spared a similar fate, perhaps thanks to the adoption of progressive social welfare programs like UBI, we have some disheartening news: They won’t.

    Older Americans are working more even as those under 65 are working less, a trend that the Bureau of Labor Statistics expects to continue. By 2024, 36% of 65- to 69-year-olds will be active participants in the labor market, the BLS says. That’s up from just 22% in 1994.

    Seniors

    And the trend looks likely to continue, as the chart above shows.

    Assuming they don’t become crypto millionaires or get discovered yodeling in a Wal-Mart, all the young, hot servers at Season 52 and other restaurants who are hoping for a measure of job security as they inexorably approach their 30s (an age where they will inevitably grow to loathe the fresh-eyed 22-year-olds that management favors) might want to consider a more marketable line of work.

    Might we suggest coding?

  • Mnuchin Reveals Trump's Iran Deal Gamble: "The Objective Is To Enter Into A New Agreement"

    One of the growing concerns resulting from Trump’s decision to pull the US out of the Iran deal, is that oil – and gasoline – prices will jump so much, now that anywhere between 200kb/d and 700kb/d in Iran exports is taken out of the market, they will offset most benefits to US consumers from the Trump tax cuts. We covered this topic three weeks ago in “Rising Gas Prices Threaten To Wipe Out Trump’s Tax Cut Benefits.”

    Incidentally, that’s just one of the less severe complications that could emerge over the next 6 months as the full extent of the new Iran sanctions is rolled out.  As we reported earlier, Trump said the U.S. would levy the “highest level” of sanctions against Iran—including the punishment of Western companies and banks if they continue to do business with the country—as Washington pulled out of the Iranian nuclear accord.

    And while new contracts are banned, companies and banks will have 90 days or 180 days to wind down their ties before risking penalties.

    “Any nation that helps Iran in its quest for nuclear weapons could also be strongly sanctioned by the United States,” Trump said, envisioning a complete paralysis of the Iranian economy. As the WSJ summarizes, financial or business activities outlawed by Aug. 6, Treasury said, include exports of airplanes and parts, dollar transactions, trade in gold and other metals, sovereign debt and auto-industry deals. By Nov. 4, sanctions ban oil purchases, dealings with Iran’s ports and shipping industry, any ties to its insurance sector and dealings with the central bank.

    But is the president really willing to alienate any of the countless European and global states that will continue trading with Iran, especially since the latest sanctions cover every major aspect of Iran’s economy, most importantly banning oil exports from the country, but also hitting the financial sector and the automotive and aviation industries.

    That’s the big question.

    Speaking at a press conference after Trump’s announcement, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that “this administration is resolved to addressing the totality of Iran’s destabilizing activities”

    And here something interesting emerged.

    Ahead of the Trump sanction announcement, many had speculated that the president is playing hard ball only for purely populist/theatrical purposes, and in reality Trump is exiting the deal only so he can re-enter it, but on his own terms.

    Furthermore, the adverse impact to Trump’s approval rating that would accompany a surge in gasoline prices would be fat worse than any number of Russian kompromats the NSA can leak to the WaPo/NYT.

    And the reality is that both Trump and Mnuchin realize this, and are hardly willing to gamble with Trump’s freedom, especially since none other than Trump himself warned that should the Democrats win the midterm elections, that he may be impeached. Yet while Mnuchin said during today’s press conference that he does “not expect oil prices to go higher”, absent Iranian oil returning fully into the market, it seems improbably that oil will slide right back to $50-60.

    So then was today’s historic unraveling of Obama’s biggest foreign policy achievement just another grand performance by Trump?

    One possible sign pointing to “yes” is that Mnuchin said the hiatus before enforcing compliance is to buy time for allies to exit the Iran deals.  But much more importantly, it is also meant to get Iran and European allies to back a potential new accord on nuclear development and other activities deemed hostile by Washington.

    And, as the WSJ adds, “the wind down periods allow for more than enough time that if there’s not a deal that the sanctions will take effect,” Mnuchin said and added what we believe is the punchline: Trump’s objective in re-imposing sanctions on Iran and threatening to penalize allies “is to enter into a new agreement” even though sanctions will remain in place until the nuke program is stopped. Then again, according to Iran and countless independent observes, Iran’s program already is stopped, which means that Trump himself deliberately set up the strawmen so he can then take them down, and upon “revising” the Iran deal, reincarnate the Iran nuclear deal, only this time it will be “Trump’s Iran Deal“, not “Obama’s Iran Deal.”

    And there you have it: according to Mnuchin, Trump’s goal is not to punish and leave Iran out of the global community – while sending the price of oil soaring -but  to theaten and pressure. In fact, as the WSJ adds, “just as the Trump administration announced steel tariffs but later provided temporary exceptions for allies, the U.S. is leaving itself wiggle room should its actions prove to be too disruptive or too tough to enforce.

    The loophole were also a mile wide: “Mr. Mnuchin said that the U.S. could give exemptions to countries proving they were significantly reducing their purchases from Iran. Treasury didn’t elaborate on what “significant” means.”

    Finally, addressing the underlying futility of the sanctions, the head of MENA research at MUFG Bank, Ehsan Khoman, said that China, India, Russia and Turkey will likely oppose U.S. sanctions and keep current levels of Iranian crude purchases, even as the occasional U.S. allies – including Japan and South Korea – may comply with U.S. sanctions because of concerns they could lose U.S. security umbrella against North Korea.

    Meanwhile, the EU could also escape Trump’s retribution and protect its entities operating in Iran by offering non-USD denominated currencies through institutions including European Investment Bank.

    “It is unclear whether the potential use of non-USD denominated finance lines will offer much protection to European entities, and thus such a move could be largely symbolic in nature.”

    Finally, Khoman notes that in a sign of de-escalation, the EU may not reinstate sanctions on shipping insurance, which were “critical in disrupting Iranian crude exports between 2012 and 2016.”

    In short, Trump’s “draconian” sanctions, which will be delayed for months, have extensive loopholes, and allow most of Iran’s existing oil trade partners to continue buying oil, may be just a big smokescreen that will allow Trump to say he achieved one more campaign promise. Meanwhile, in reality, both Trump and Mnuchin are doing their best behind the scenes to “enter a new agreement”, one which Trump can bring to the masses and say: “here, I took Obama’s unacceptable, defective deal, and made it better…. and i also brought down the price of oil too.”

  • "After 14 Years, I’ve Had It. I’m Leaving Seattle"

    In a scathing op-ed published in the Seattle Times, Alex Berezow, a biomedical science fellow at the American Council on Science and Health, blasted Seattle’s City Council for prioritizing virtue signaling over the plight of the city’s most vulnerable residents and its increasingly strapped middle class.

    When Berezow first moved to Seattle 14 years ago, homelessness didn’t exist in the neighborhood of Northgate, where he continues to live.

    But as home prices have skyrocketed – to the point where the median home value has reached nearly $900,000, placing homeownership in the city far beyond the reach of most American millennials – Berezow said homeless camps have begun appearing in the neighborhood. Many of these camps have no access to social services and are subjected to disease and abuse and as a result, crime has risen.

    Seattle

    In short, Seattle has become a city that is hostile to the middle class.

    But it wasn’t until a meeting with city council woman Debora Juarez that Berezow was inspired to pen an editorial for the Seattle Times. After the council woman blew off his concerns about the homeless and about housing (the city has been accused of artificially restricting supply through overly strict zoning laws), Berezow decided to appeal directly to the city’s residents.

    Seattle’s politicians are so focused on being anti-Trump, they spend more time talking about issues they have no control over – like foreign policy – than ensuring that Seattle’s streets are clean and safe, that potholes have been repaired, and that younger residents can at least entertain the hope of home ownership some day.

    * * *

    Read the full editorial below:

    I KNEW Seattle was no longer a place for me when I met with Debora Juarez — the District 5 City Council member I had voted for.

    Last September, at what I thought was going to be a friendly one-on-one meeting between an elected official and her constituent, I expressed some concerns that were on my mind. I fretted over the deterioration of a city with which I had fallen in love — a city that, despite my 21 trips to Europe, I still believe to be the most beautiful in the world.

    I told my council member that Northgate, my home, had seen a noticeable increase in litter and graffiti. To my dismay, she seemed to suggest these issues were someone else’s job, not hers. So, I moved on to a bigger issue: homelessness.

    When I first moved to Seattle 14 years ago, to attend the University of Washington, homelessness essentially didn’t exist at Northgate. Though I have never been a victim of or witness to a crime, some of my neighbors have been, and they believe homeless camps are the reason. Additionally, the conditions in such camps are often atrocious — not only are the homeless more likely to be victims of violent crime, they are susceptible to infectious disease, such as the hepatitis A outbreak in San Diego that sickened nearly 500 people and has killed 20.

    I believe strongly that it is not compassionate to leave people who are unable or unwilling to care for themselves to suffer and die on the street. Because many (but certainly not all) homeless people struggle with mental illness or drug addiction, I suggested that Seattle find a way to make it easier to provide treatment to these troubled souls — involuntarily, if need be. It could literally save their lives.

    Juarez exclaimed, “What is this? Nazi Germany?”

    Appalled — in part because my grandparents survived Nazi Germany — I got up and walked out.

    As a professional science writer, I’ve certainly grown accustomed to the crass insults that have become routine in our toxic political environment. I just didn’t expect it from a person for whom I voted. But perhaps I shouldn’t have been surprised.

    Slowly but surely, Seattle has become an angry place. Councilmember Kshama Sawant called a police shooting a “brutal murder.” She also tweeted that it was “terrible” for a feminist organization to wish that Barbara Bush, on her death, rest in peace. As a congressional candidate, Pramila Jayapal supporters implied that her respectable opponent, Brady Walkinshaw, was a misogynist and racist. And former Mayor Ed Murray, whose pattern of alleged sexual behavior finally caught up with him, remained defiant until the bitter end.

    For a city that prides itself on being “anti-Trump,” it is difficult to see how exactly we’re supposed to possess the moral high ground over “The Other Washington.”

    The toxic politics are bad enough, but the city also has become unaffordable for the middle class. Partly, that is due to high demand (which is a good problem for a city to have), but it’s also due to self-inflicted wounds, such as a restrictive housing policy that artificially caps supply. Seattle is well on its way to becoming the next Vancouver, British Columbia, with the median housing price having spiked to an eye-watering $820,000, far outside the reach of the middle class. Unless they are able to save for about 14 years to afford a down payment, millennials can forget about homeownership entirely.

    The $15 minimum wage has added gasoline to the fire. Though it hasn’t even been fully implemented yet, the most recent study last summer revealed that when the minimum moved from $11 to $13 an hour, low-wage workers lost about $125 per month. That means that the law raises costs for businesses and customers while actually harming employees it was meant to help.

    But stubborn facts and a hurting middle class don’t seem to faze the City Council, which seems far more concerned about issues over which it has zero control — such as climate change and foreign policy — than it does about issues over which it has at least a modicum of control, such as the cost of living, homelessness, crime, traffic and potholes. For our City Council, virtue signaling is more important than governing.

    So, my wife and I are heading to the Eastside. We really would prefer to stay in Seattle. But if safe streets, clean sidewalks, an affordable place to live and polite discourse is asking too much, we’ll gladly seek refuge in a city where quality of life and civility still matter.

    * * *

    Seattle’s city council recently announced it would pursue an employment tax on the city’s largest companies to create a fund to provide emergency services to the homeless, as well as permanent relocation services.

    The only problem? The city’s largest taxpayer, Amazon, is threatening to halt construction projects and cut down on employment in the city if the measure goes through.

    Opponents of the law say it would penalize employment and ultimately hurt the city’s economy, while doing nothing to alleviate the housing crisis.

    But at least progressive lawmakers could finally say they’re doing something.

Digest powered by RSS Digest