Today’s News 27th March 2018

  • ECB Finds €10 Billion In European Bank Loan "Miscalculations"

    By now it is, or should be, well-understood that the biggest deflationary virus at the heart of the European financial system is the ~€1 trillion mountain of bad loans  (of which which over €230 billion is found in Germany and France) and which casts a giant shadow both over Europe and the ECB whose president is well aware that without the central bank’s bid, the liquidity and confidence vortex that is this massive monetary black hole, will promptly drag Europe’s economy back into depression.

    Well, as of today one can make it $1 trillion and €10 billion, because in a report published by the European Central Bank today, it announced its inspectors had found “shortcomings and miscalculations” worth more than €10 billion when going through euro zone banks’ loan books last year.

    Not surprisingly – after all the stinking pile of bad debt is arguably the biggest threat facing the European financial system once QE and NIRP is over – the ECB’s annual report showed some banks were found to be deficient in the way they identify problem customers and loans, set aside provisions and choose when to grant credit according to Reuters.

    In other words “some banks” lied about pretty much everything.

    Tasked with avoiding a new financial crisis, the ECB has been putting pressure on banks to clean up their balance sheets from unpaid loans inherited from the last recession, a problem for most countries in the south of Europe, as well as Slovenia and Ireland. Ironically, the ECB’s own monetary policy has removed all urgency to actually clean up balance sheets at a time when European junk bonds yield less than US government paper.

    The bad loans, along with risky derivative instruments, will remain the focus of ECB supervisors this year, President Mario Draghi said in the report.

    “In 2018 banks continue to face some key challenges,” Draghi said adding that “These include cleaning up their balance sheets, reducing legacy exposures largely originating from the financial crisis, such as certain non-marketable financial products, and from the ensuing Great Recession, such as non-performing loans.

    In short, nearly a decade after the crisis, Europe still has about €1 trillion in bad loans should not be there.

    The report shows the ECB’s focus has been mostly on the latter – a cause of griping among Italian banks, which meanwhile have been complaining that risks associated with derivatives held by their competitors in France and Germany have been overlooked.

    Recall that as we first disclosed four years ago, Deutsche Bank has tens of trillions of gross derivative exposure on its books.

    Not surprisingly, the ECB focused on the bad loan aspect instead of derivatives (knowing which usual suspects could be implicated): the ECB launched 156 inspections in 2017, around 60 of which concentrated on bank credit – in most cases including soured loans. By comparison, market risk, which includes derivatives, accounted for fewer than 10 inspections. These revealed that some banks were failing to classify their derivatives correctly according to how difficult they are to value, and therefore potentially risky.

    In other words, while some banks lied about their bad loans, other banks lied about their derivatives. And with that in mind, we look forward to finding out just how the ECB thinks it can gradually or otherwise withdraw its support of the European financial system.

  • Paul Craig Roberts: Integrity Has Vanished From The West

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

    Among Western political leaders there is not an ounce of integrity or morality. The Western print and TV media is dishonest and corrupt beyond repair. Yet the Russian government persists in its fantasy of “working with Russia’s Western partners.” The only way Russia can work with crooks is to become a crook. Is that what the Russian government wants?

    Finian Cunningham notes the absurdity in the political and media uproar over Trump (belatedly) telephoning Putin to congratulate him on his reelection with 77 percent of the vote, a show of public approval that no Western political leader could possibly attain. The crazed US senator from Arizona called the person with the largest majority vote of our time “a dictator.” Yet a real blood-soaked dictator from Saudi Arabia is feted at the White House and fawned over by the president of the United States.

    The Western politicians and presstitutes are morally outraged over an alleged poisoning, unsupported by any evidence, of a former spy of no consequence on orders by the president of Russia himself. These kind of insane insults thrown at the leader of the world’s most powerful military nation—and Russia is a nation, unlike the mongrel Western countries—raise the chances of nuclear Armageddon beyond the risks during the 20th century’s Cold War. The insane fools making these unsupported accusations show total disregard for all life on earth. Yet they regard themselves as the salt of the earth and as “exceptional, indispensable” people.

    Think about the alleged poisoning of Skirpal by Russia. What can this be other than an orchestrated effort to demonize the president of Russia? How can the West be so outraged over the death of a former double-agent, that is, a deceptive person, and completely indifferent to the millions of peoples destroyed by the West in the 21st century alone. Where is the outrage among Western peoples over the massive deaths for which the West, acting through its Saudi agent, is responsible in Yemen? Where is the Western outrage among Western peoples over the deaths in Syria? The deaths in Libya, in Somalia, Pakistan, Ukraine, Afghanistan? Where is the outrage in the West over the constant Western interference in the internal affairs of other countries? How many times has Washington overthrown a democratically-elected government in Honduras and reinstalled a Washington puppet?

    The corruption in the West extends beyond politicians, presstitutes, and an insouciant public to experts. When the ridiculous Condi Rice, national security adviser to president George W. Bush, spoke of Saddam Hussein’s non-existent weapons of mass destruction sending up a nuclear cloud over an American city, experts did not laugh her out of court. The chance of any such event was precisely zero and every expert knew it, but the corrupt experts held their tongues. If they spoke the truth, they knew that they would not get on TV, would not get a government grant, would be out of the running for a government appointment. So they accepted the absurd lie designed to justify an American invasion that destroyed a country.

    This is the West. There is nothing but lies and indifference to the deaths of others. The only outrage is orchestrated and directed against a target: the Taliban, Saddam Hussein, Gaddafi, Iran, Assad, Russia and Putin, and against reformist leaders in Latin America. The targets for Western outrage are always those who act independently of Washington or who are no longer useful to Washington’s purposes.

    The quality of people in Western governments has collapsed to the very bottom of the barrel. The British actually have a person, Boris Johnson, as Foreign Secretary, who is so low-down that a former British ambassador has no compunction in calling him a categorical liar. The British lab Porton Down, contrary to Johnson’s claim, has not identified the agent associated with the attack on Skirpal as a Russian novichok agent. Note also that if the British lab is able to identify a novichok agent, it also has the capability of producing it, a capability that many countries have as the formulas were published years ago in a book.

    That the novichok poisoning of Skirpal is an orchestration is obvious. The minute the event occurred the story was ready. With no evidence in hand, the British government and presstitute media were screaming “the Russians did it.” Not content with that, Boris Johnson screamed “Putin did it.” In order to institutionalize fear and hatred of Russia into British consciousness, British school children are being taught that Putin is like Hitler. 

    Orchestrations this blatant demonstrate that Western governments have no respect for the intelligence of their peoples. That Western governments get away with these fantastic lies indicates that the governments are immune to accountability. Even if accountability were possible, there is no sign that Western peoples are capable of holding their governments accountable. As Washington drives the world to nuclear war, where are the protests? The only protest is brainwashed school children protesting the National Rifle Association and the Second Amendment.

    Western democracy is a hoax. Consider Catalonia. The people voted for independence and were denounced for doing so by European politicians. The Spanish government invaded Catalonia alleging that the popular referendum, in which people expressed their opinion about their own future, was illegal. Catalonian leaders are in prison awaiting trial, except for Carles Puigdemont who escaped to Belgium. Now Germany has captured him on his return to Belgium from Finland where he lectured at the University of Hesinki and is holding him in jail for a Spanish government that bears more resemblance to Francisco Franco than to democracy.  The European Union itself is a conspiracy against democracy.

    The success of Western propaganda in creating non-existent virtues for itself is the greatest public relations success in history.

  • Mapping Where Global Tariffs Are Highest And Lowest

    Last week, China announced that it would retaliate against U.S. tariffs by imposing its own duties on a range of American products including apples, port and steel pipes. Last Thursday, President Trump signed an executive memorandum that could lead to tariffs being imposed on up to $60 billion of Chinese products, a move which is designed to penalize China for alleged intellectual property theft. Beijing responded that it while it does not want a trade war, it is “absolutely not afraid of one”. Late last week, stock markets dropped sharply.

    The Trump Administrations’s move to impose tariffs on Chinese imports as well as steel and aluminum imports in general, is a break with long-standing U.S. trade policy. As Statista’s Niall McCarthy notes, hHistorically, previous presidents have been in favor of lower tariffs and the removal of barriers to facilitate trade.

    Today, the U.S. applies a weighted average tariff of 1.6 percent on its imports according to the World Bank and this is one of the lowest rates worldwide, equivalent to the EU and similar to Japan.

    Infographic: Where Global Tariffs Are Highest And Lowest | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    The World Bank’s tariff rates refer to 2016 and are weighted by product import shares without taking specific trade deals like NAFTA into account.

    Although most developed countries have been pushing for lower trade tariffs, they are still very high in some parts of the world.

    For example, India imposes weighted average tariffs of 6.3 percent while in China, the rate is 3.5 percent.

    African countries have some of the highest rates with Gabon standing out at 16.93 percent.

    The Bahamas is the country with the highest weighted-average tariff worldwide at 18.6 percent.

  • Whitehead: Enough Is Enough – If You Really Want To Save Lives, Take Aim At Government Violence

    Authored by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    Enough is enough.

    That was the refrain chanted over and over by the thousands of demonstrators who gathered to protest gun violence in America.

    On March 24, 2018, more than 200,000 young people took the time to march on Washington DC and other cities across the country to demand that their concerns about gun violence be heard.

    More power to them.

    I’m all for activism, especially if it motivates people who have been sitting silently on the sidelines for too long to get up and try to reclaim control over a runaway government.

    Curiously, however, although these young activists were vocal in calling for gun control legislation that requires stricter background checks and limits the kinds of weapons being bought and sold by members of the public, they were remarkably silent about the gun violence perpetrated by their own government.

    Why is no one taking aim at the U.S. government as the greatest purveyor of violence in American society and around the world?

    As journalist Celisa Calacal recognizes, “It is often the case that police shootings, incidents where law enforcement officers pull the trigger on civilians, are left out of the conversation on gun violence. But a police officer shooting a civilian counts as gun violence. Every time an officer uses a gun against an innocent or an unarmed person contributes to the culture of gun violence in this country.”

    Enough is enough.

    The systemic violence being perpetrated by agents of the government has done more collective harm to the American people and our liberties than any single act of terror or mass shooting.

    Violence has become our government’s calling card, from the more than 80,000 SWAT team raids carried out every year on unsuspecting Americans to the military’s endless wars abroad.

    Indeed, the day before thousands of demonstrators descended on Washington DC to protest mass shootings such as the one that took place at Stoneman Douglas High School, President Trump signed into law a colossal $1.3 trillion spending bill that gives the military the biggest boost in spending in more than a decade.

    With more than $700 billion earmarked for the military, including $144.3 billion for new military equipment, you can be sure this financial windfall for America’s military empire will be used to expand the police state here at home.

    This will put more militarized guns and weapons in the hands of local police and government bureaucrats who have been trained to shoot first and ask questions later.

    Enough is enough.

    Remember, it was just a few months ago that President Trump, aided and abetted by his trusty Department of Justice henchman Jeff Sessions, rolled back restrictions on the government’s military recycling program to the delight of the nation’s powerful police unions.

    Under the auspices of this military “recycling” program, which was instituted decades ago, more than $4.2 billion worth of equipment has been transferred from the Defense Department to domestic police agencies.

    There are now reportedly more bureaucratic (non-military) government civilians armed with high-tech, deadly weapons than U.S. Marines.

    In the hands of government agents, whether they are members of the military, law enforcement or some other government agency, these weapons have become routine parts of America’s day-to-day life. As investigative journalists Andrew Becker and G.W. Schulz reveal, “Many police, including beat cops, now routinely carry assault rifles. Combined with body armor and other apparel, many officers look more and more like combat troops serving in Iraq and Afghanistan.”

    Thanks to Trump, this transformation of America into a battlefield is only going to get worse.

    Get ready for more militarized police.

    More police shootings. More SWAT team raids.

    More violence in a culture already drenched with violence.

    Enough is enough.

    You want to talk about gun violence?

    According to the Washington Post,1 in 13 people killed by guns are killed by police.”

    Growing numbers of unarmed people are being shot and killed by police for just standing a certain way, or moving a certain way, or holding something—anything—that police could misinterpret to be a gun, or igniting some trigger-centric fear in a police officer’s mind that has nothing to do with an actual threat to their safety.

    Enough is enough.

    With alarming regularity, unarmed men, women, children and even pets are being gunned down by twitchy, hyper-sensitive, easily-spooked police officers who shoot first and ask questions later.

    Americans are being shot and killed by police…

    For standing in a “shooting stance.”

    For holding a cell phone.

    For carrying a baseball bat.

    For opening the front door.

    For running towards police with a metal spoon.

    For running while holding a tree branch.

    For crawling around naked.

    For wearing dark pants and a basketball jersey.

    For driving while deaf.

    For being homeless.

    For brandishing a shoehorn.

    For having your car break down on the road.

    For holding a garden hose.

    For calling 911.

    For looking for a parking spot.

    This is what passes for policing in America today, folks, and it’s only getting worse.

    That police chose to fatally resolve these encounters by using their guns on fellow citizens speaks volumes about what is wrong with policing in America today, where police officers are being dressed in the trappings of war, drilled in the deadly art of combat, and trained to look upon “every individual they interact with as an armed threat and every situation as a deadly force encounter in the making.”

    Enough is enough.

    You want to save lives?

    Start by doing something to save the lives of your fellow citizens who are being gunned down every day by police who are trained to shoot first and ask questions later.

    You want to cry about the lives lost during mass shootings?

    Cry about the lives lost as a result of the violence being perpetrated by the U.S. government here at home and abroad.

    If gun control activists really want the country to reconsider its relationship with guns and violence, then it needs to start with a serious discussion about the role our government has played and continues to play in contributing to the culture of violence.

    If the American people are being called on to scale back on their weapons, then as I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, the government and its cohorts – the police, the various government agencies that are now armed to the hilt, the military, the defense contractors, etc. – need to do the same.

    It’s time to put an end to the government’s reign of terror.

    Enough is enough.

  • The Occupations Growing The Fastest Since The Recession

    The U.S. had its most recent recession between December 2007 and June 2009. Even 10 years since it began, the country’s job market is still feeling its impact.

    Some states have recovered well from the recession but, as Statista’s Niall McCarthy points out, others are still struggling today and seven of them had fewer jobs in 2017 than 2007, according to CareerBuilder data.

    That’s despite the nation as a whole having around 6.7 million more jobs in 2017 than 2007. The list of states with fewer jobs last year included Alabama, West Virginia, Mississippi, New Mexico, Connecticut, Wyoming and Illinois.

    CareerBuilder’s research also revealed the occupations that are thriving since the end of the recession.

    Infographic: The Occupations Growing The Fastest Since The Recession | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    The fastest rates of growth were seen among home health aide positions with almost 300,000 jobs added between 2007 and 2017.

    During the same time period, web development jobs grew 38 percent while veterinary technologist and technicians went up 32 percent.

  • Escobar: Will The Putin-Xi Era Supersede The Western Liberal (Dis)Order?

    Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Asia Times,

    Perhaps a Confucian path would be the right direction toward Eurasian integration

    The Chinese constitutional amendment allowing Xi Jinping the possibility of further presidential terms – staying in power long enough to bring “national rejuvenation” combined with the Russian election re-confirming Vladimir Putin in the presidency have assured consistency and continuity for the Russia-China strategic partnership way into the next decade.

    This will facilitate the interaction between the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Eurasia Economic Union (EEAU); policy coordination inside the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the BRICS and the G-20; and the overall drive towards Eurasia integration.

    The strengthening of what should be viewed as the Putin-Xi era could not but render Western liberals – and neoliberals – absolutely livid.

    Capitalist interests have always believed their own propaganda narrative, which directly links capitalist expansion with the inevitable spread of democracy.

    Critical thinking is, at last, debunking it as a grand illusion.

    What in fact happened since the early 1980s was that Western turbo-capitalism avidly profited from a variation of neo-slave labor in China’s Special Economic Zones (SEZs). Compound it with the proverbial hubris of Western elites betting that China — regarded at best as a source of cheap labor as well as an enfeebled Russia during the 1990s would never accumulate enough know-how to challenge the West, geoeconomically and geopolitically.

    The historical record is implacable, showing there’s no connection whatsoever between “free” trade – usually freer for those with extra economic heft and political liberalization. For instance, the Prussian monarchy lowered trade barriers and that led to the creation of the Zollverein in 1834. And the Third Reich between 1933 and 1938 offered a heady mix of hardcore capitalism and totalitarianism.

    China’s system, where a (Marxist) party controls the state for the purposes of national cohesion certainly does not qualify as a liberal democracy. Dissenter Minxin Pei, the author of  China’s Trapped Transition, already knew 12 years ago that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) would never go the Western liberal democracy way (Pei did understand Little Helmsman Deng Xiaoping’s commands to the letter).

    He got it right that China has “no interest in becoming a member of the [Western] club. They want the economic benefits from the Western liberal order but reject its political values and fear its security alliances. Now they are in a strong enough position attempting to build their own clubhouse.

    What Pei got wrong is that the CCP would smother China’s economic growth (“The prospect of a Japanese-like stagnation is real.”) Xi Jinping and his new dream team need enough time to successfully tweak the Chinese economic model.

    Away from childish 24/7 demonization, the fact is Russia today is a democracy, albeit imperfect. And it’s important to analyze how a young democracy can be manipulated. The third chapter of new book Manifest-Destiny: Democracy as Cognitive Dissonance details the rape of Russia; how Boris Yeltsin’s “free market reforms” facilitated by the “Harvard boys” allowed a small coterie of billionaire oligarchs — Mikhail Khodorkovsky, Boris Berezovsky and Roman Abramovich among them — to take over an economy suffering from shock therapy.

    Between 1991 and 1997 Russian GDP collapsed by a whopping 83% while investment into the economy fell by 92%.

    The case of Khodorkovsky is emblematic. Through Yukos, he owned key Siberian oil fields and was about to sell them all to Western corporate interests back in 2003 when Putin went after him. There’s no question this was avidly studied by the Beijing leadership. Control of key national resources is the ultimate red line.

    For Putin as well as Xi, the supreme arbiter is the national state, not a bunch of oligarchs like it’s become a norm across the liberal and neoliberal West. On a BRICS level, compare it with the current usurper installed in the Brazilian presidency, who’s doing his best to hand over most of the pre-salt oil reserves as well as aviation giant Embraer to foreign interests.

    When in doubt, ask Confucius

    It has become a ritual for guardians of the Western establishment to weep hard about the “fading liberal world order.” At least some admit it is “neither liberal nor worldwide nor orderly.”

    Lesser guardians may be more realistic, noting how Western politicians have been completely bypassed by popular anger in myriad latitudes, yet still believing it’s possible to “rebuild democracy’s moral foundations.”

    It’s not — not under the predominant neoliberal creed, the post-mod TINA (there is no alternative). The guardians, left and right, cannot possibly understand the rise of populism — because those under the populist influence clearly see how the myths of “rule of law” and “national sovereignty” are fast dissolving in the mud. The guardians at best mourn, nostalgically, “the loss of elite influence.”

    China, Russia, Iran and Turkey  – all implicated in Eurasia integration  – may all rank as authoritarian systems at different levels. And cases can be made that, with the exception of China they still underperform economically compared to their true potential.

    Yet one thing they value most of all is national sovereignty amid a multipolar system. That’s their conceptual counterpoint to the il(liberal) world (dis)order. That’s their answer to TINA.

    As for “the loss of elite influence,” that’s code for a self-described coterie of the wealthy and powerful claiming a fuzzy democracy moral high ground which only unmasks their deep fear as the Western unipolar moment dissolves sooner rather than later.

    All these contradictions are in sharp relief when we look at the European Union. The EU, since the Maastricht treaty, has been steered into becoming what Angela Merkel herself defined as Bundesrepublik Europa — the Federal Republic of Europe.

    Anyone familiar with Brussels knows how those waves of tax-free Eurocrats milk an ultra-centralized and bureaucratically Kafkaesque regulation system as they remain completely out of touch with normal, real-life Europeans.

    The EU’s notion of promoting “economic integration”  including heavy doses of austerity could not be more anti-democratic.

    Add to it scandals at top state level that do nothing but corrode the belief in the primacy of the Western liberal democracy model. The latest involves the real possibility that Colonel Gaddafi probably financed the 2007 Sarkozy presidential campaign in France; an outstandingly murky affair featuring the politics of energy, the politics of water, and the proverbial major weapons contracts through which Western liberal democracies discard any moral high ground.

    Now compare it with Xi Jinping as hexin lingdao (the nucleus of the leadership) a sort of primus inter pares in a Sinified version of Plato’s Republic. Greek-Roman-Enlightenment political theory is not the only game in town anymore. Yet not a chance the hubristic West will start listening to Confucius.

  • Cerberus Takes A Bath As America's Oldest Gunmaker Files For Bankruptcy

    Cerberus Capital Management has officially eaten its initial investment in Remington as the country’s oldest firearms manufacturer officially filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy late Sunday after unveiling a plan last month to surrender most of the company’s assets to its creditors. CNNMoney reported that the company agreed to reduce its debt by $700 million through the Chapter 11 process and contribute $145 million to its subsidiaries as part of the deal.

    Cerberus will shed its ownership once the bankruptcy is complete.

    Falling gun sales in recent years combined with high debt levels and a bleak sales outlook (now that President Trump is in office and Republicans are seen as more likely to protect gun rights) are making life difficult for firearms manufacturers.

    Remington

    Remington, which is buried under nearly $1 billion in debt, announced a debt restructuring plan on Feb. 12, two days before the school shooting in Parkland, Florida. Since then, some retailers have reacted by dropping sales of firearms – most notably Dick’s Sporting Goods, which announced a ban on the sale of assault rifles and Walmart, which raised the minimum age to buy guns to 21.

    Remington makes the Bushmaster AR-15-style rifle that was used in the Sandy Hook shooting in Connecticut that left 20 first-graders and six educators dead in 2012. The company was cleared of wrongdoing in the shooting, but investors swiftly shunned Cerberus Capital Management, the company’s owner, according to the Associated Press.

    Gun makers have reported precipitous declines in profits over the past year thanks to the drop in sales.

    After 8 years of almost incessant rises in NICS Firearms Checks (a proxy for ‘legal’ arms sales) under President Obama, the number of checks declined last year.

     

    Remington

    Remington announced in February that it would reduce its $950 million debt load in a deal that will transfer control of the company to creditors. It plans to wrap up its bankruptcy as soon as May 3, according to CNN.

    The company’s announcement came just two days before 17 people were killed at a high school in Parkland, Florida, on Feb. 14 – a massacre that sparked an intense campaign for gun control by activists.

    Remington plans to keep on making guns. The company said, when it first announced its plan to file for bankruptcy in February, that operations “will not be disrupted by the restructuring process.”

    Founded in 1816, Remington is one of the oldest and best-known gun makers in the world.

    Remington is headquartered in North Carolina. It makes handguns, shotguns and rifles at its 19th-century factory in Ilion, NY, and is a cornerstone of the region’s economy.

    While Cerberus has been wiped out, Remington’s creditors might have reason to be optimistic. With the “March for our Lives” attracting hundreds of thousands of Americans, pressure on lawmakers to crack down on gun sales is growing. And any sign of an impending crackdown will likely send gun sales soaring again.

  • How To Uncover The Apps Tracking You On Facebook (And Block Them)

    Via TheAntiMedia.com,

    Following a lengthy silence in the wake of the Cambridge Analytica scandal, where it was revealed that a data firm was able to obtain personal information from over 50 million Facebook accounts, company CEO Mark Zuckerberg finally spoke out last week.

    “We have a responsibility to protect your data, and if we can’t then we don’t deserve to serve you,” Zuckerberg wrote in a Facebook post“I’ve been working to understand exactly what happened and how to make sure this doesn’t happen again.”

    Facebook’s top dog then embarked on a small media tour, addressing several of the major concerns highlighted by the unsavory affair. While speaking with the Wall Street Journal, for instance, Zuckerberg said his company has launched an investigation into third-party developers who are “doing bad things” with users’ personal data on the Facebook platform.

    But he also admitted that “like any security precaution, it’s not that this is a bulletproof solve” and that no mechanism “by itself is ever going to find every single thing.”

    While it’s great that the company is taking a proactive step, the effort is not likely to comfort those users who feel their privacy has already been violated. What’s more, Zuckerberg conceded in the interview that the investigation may take months or more to complete.

    In the meantime, options are available to those who refuse to simply wait around while Facebook gets its collective act together.

    For starters, stop using the “log in with Facebook” option after downloading an app. It may take a bit longer to create a new account, but the app won’t get instant access to private information from your Facebook profile, which the company itself admits is what happens.

    For the apps you’re already using, there’s a fairly simple process for managing the types of data they can access. Or, if you prefer, the same process always you to delete the app entirely.

    Step 1:

    Step 2:

    Step 3:

    Step 4:

    Step 5:

    Step 6:

    Step 7:

    Step 8:

    Step 9:

  • Obama's FBI Knew Russia Aided Iran Nuclear Program Before Uranium One & Iran Deal: Report

    During Obama’s first term, the FBI was presented with evidence that Russia was providing assistance to Iran’s nuclear program, according to former undercover informant William Douglas Campbell. 

    Campbell – who worked for the CIA for decades before his work for the FBI, tells The Hill that he gathered evidence of Russia intercepting nonpublic copies of international inspection reports concerning Tehran’s nuclear program – sending equipment, advice and materials to one of Iran’s several nuclear facilities. 

    Campbell said Russian nuclear executives were extremely concerned that Moscow’s ongoing assistance to Iran might boomerang on them just as they were winning billions of dollars in new nuclear fuel contracts inside the United States. –The Hill

    The people I was working with had been briefed by Moscow to keep a very low profile regarding Moscow’s work with Tehran,” said Campbell. “Moscow was supplying equipment, nuclear equipment, nuclear services to Iran. And Moscow, specifically the leadership in Moscow, were concerned that it would offset the strategy they had here in the United States if the United States understood the close relationship between Moscow and Tehran.” 

    Notes of Campbell’s FBI debriefings show he reported in 2010 that a Russian nuclear executive was using “the same kind of payment network” to move funds between Russia and Iran as was used to launder kickbacks between Moscow and Americans.

    Campbell worked from 2008 to 2014 as an undercover informant inside Rosatom, Russia’s state-controlled nuclear giant, while posing as a consultant. He helped the FBI put several Russian and U.S. executives in prison for a bribery, kickback, money laundering and extortion scheme.  –The Hill

    “Ask your politics”

    When Campbell asked the FBI why all of the illegal schemes he uncovered weren’t being prosecuted, he was explicitly told it was political: 

    “I remember one response I got from an agent when I asked how it was possible CFIUS would approve the Uranium One sale when the FBI could prove Rosatom was engaged in criminal conduct.  His answer: ‘Ask your politics,’ ” Campbell said.  

    In other words – Obama’s “scandal free” administration approved the Uranium One deal and spearheaded the Iran Nuclear Deal after the FBI, headed at the time by Robert Mueller knew, according to Campbell, that: 

    • Russian nuclear executives routed millions in bribe money to a Clinton charity as part of a “uranium dominance strategy.”
    • The Clinton Foundation received $145 million in donations from parties connected to Uranium One – in particular, mining executive and close Clinton pal Frank Giustra.
    • Moscow had compromised an American uranium trucking firm, Transport Logistics International (TLI) in violation of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act – which bribed a Russian nuclear official in exchange for a contract transport Russian-mined U.S. uranium, including “yellowcake” uranium secured in the Uranium One deal.
    • A Russian nuclear executive connected to the Uranium One deal engaged in a money laundering and bribery scheme with a United States trucking company, DAHER-TLI. 

    Campbell said he became concerned the Obama administration was granting concessions to the Russian nuclear industry in 2010 and 2011 — paving the way for Moscow to buy large U.S. uranium assets and to secure billions in nuclear fuel contracts — even as he reported evidence of Moscow’s help to Iran.

    “I got no feedback. They took the reports and the reports, I assume, went to specific people assigned to analyze the reports and that was the last I heard of it,” he said.

    In 2012, FBI agents asked Campbell to press a top Russian nuclear executive about the Iran assistance, providing a list of detailed questions. The Russians became suspicious about Campbell’s inquiries and fired him from his consulting job, he said

    It raised a red flag almost immediately and within a matter of weeks thank God I was out of harm’s way,” he said. –The Hill

    ***

    Following Campbell’s undercover work, the FBI rewarded him in 2016 with a check for $51,000 at an awards banquet in Chantilly, VA – however after details of Campbell’s undercover work for the FBI first emerged in an October 2017 report by The Hill – which did not divulge his name, Michael Isikoff of Yahoo News and Joel Schectman of Reuters published articles smearing Campbell, saying he was “so unreliable that prosecutors dropped him as a witness” in a case unrelated to his undercover work – while two “senior officials” within the Justice Department fed Congressional investigators the same thing during a December 15 briefing. 

    Both statements were lies, as the case was related to Campbell’s undercover work, and he was dropped as a witness after the Baltimore U.S. Attorney’s office botched their case, which Campbell’s testimony would have weakened.

    As part of the smear, Campbell’s name was also divulged in a public filing by the DOJ, “making him unemployable in the industry and leaving him to survive on Social Security” after decades of loyal service to both the CIA and the FBI. 

    Campbell testified to Congressional investigators in February after an “iron-clad” gag order was lifted. 

    Campbell’s lawyer Victoria Toensing, a former Reagan Justice Department official and former Chief Counsel to the Senate Intelligence Committee, fired off a letter to Attorney General Jeff Sessions on Tuesday demanding an investigation into Campbell’s character assassination – CC’ing DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz, along with several Congressional Investigators and others involved in the matter. 

    The letter reads: 

    “We write on behalf of our client, William Douglas Campbell, to request an investigation of disclosures by anonymous “federal officials” to the media and of Congressional briefings by “senior officials” of the Justice Department. The former provided false information about Mr. Campbell to the media. The latter provided false information about Mr. Campbell to Senate and House committees.”

     

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Today’s News 26th March 2018

  • 91% Of Cypriots See 'Fake News' As A Problem (And They're Not Alone In The EU)

    According to a recent Eurobarometer survey, at least seven in ten respondents in all 28 EU member states perceive fake news to be a problem in their country.

    Infographic: Where Fake News Is Seen as a Problem in the EU  | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    The share was highest in Cyprus with 91 percent saying “yes, it is definitely a problem” or “yes, it is a problem to some extent”.

     Greece came second, followed by Italy.

    In the UK, 84 percent of people said that fake news is a problem in their country.

  • 30 Questions That Journalists Should Be Asking About The Skripal Case

    Authored by Rob Slane via TheBlogMire.com,

    There are a lot of issues surrounding the case of Sergei and Yulia Skripal which, at the time of writing, are very unclear and rather odd. There may well be good and innocent explanations for some or even all of them. Then again there may not. This is why it is crucial for questions to be asked where, as yet, there are either no answers or deeply unsatisfactory ones.

    Some people will assume that this is conspiracy theory territory. It is not that, for the simple reason that I have no credible theory – conspiracy or otherwise – to explain all the details of the incident in Salisbury from start to finish, and I am not attempting to forward one. I have no idea who was behind this incident, and I continue to keep an open mind to a good many possible explanations.

    However, there are a number of oddities in the official narrative, which do demand answers and clarifications. You don’t have to be a conspiracy theorist or a defender of the Russian state to see this. You just need a healthy scepticism, “of a type developed by all inquiring minds!”

    Below are 30 of the most important questions regarding the case and the British Government’s response, which are currently either wholly unanswered, or which require clarification.

    1. Why have there been no updates on the condition of Sergei and Yulia Skripal in the public domain since the first week of the investigation?

    2. Are they still alive?

    3. If so, what is their current condition and what symptoms are they displaying?

    4. In a recent letter to The Times, Stephen Davies, Consultant in Emergency Medicine at Salisbury NHS Foundation Trust, wrote the following:

    “Sir, Further to your report (“Poison exposure leaves almost 40 needing treatment”, Mar 14) may I clarify that no patients have experienced nerve agent poisoning in Salisbury and there have only ever been three patients with significant poisoning.”

    His claim that “no patients have experienced nerve agent poisoning in Salisbury” is remarkably odd, as it appears to flatly contradict the official narrative. Was this a slip of the pen, or was it his intention to communicate precisely this — that no patients have been poisoned by a nerve agent in Salisbury?

    5. It has been said that the Skripals and Detective Sergeant Nick Bailey were poisoned by “a military grade nerve agent”. According to some claims, the type referred to could be anywhere between five and eight times more toxic than VX nerve agent. Given that just 10mg of VX is reckoned to be the median lethal dose, it seems likely that the particular type mentioned in the Skripal case should have killed them instantly. Is there an explanation as to how or why this did not happen?

    6. Although reports suggested the involvement of some sort of nerve agent fairly soon after the incident, it was almost a week before Public Health England issued advice to those who had visited The Mill pub or the Zizzi restaurant in Salisbury on the day that the Skripals fell ill. Why the delay and did this pose a danger to the public?

    7. In their advice, Public Health England stated that people who had visited those places, where traces of a military grade nerve agent had apparently been found, should wash their clothes and:

    “Wipe personal items such as phones, handbags and other electronic items with cleansing or baby wipes and dispose of the wipes in the bin (ordinary domestic waste disposal).”

    Are baby wipes acknowledged to be an effective and safe method of dealing with objects that may potentially have been contaminated with “military grade nerve agent”, especially of a type 5-8 times more deadly than VX?

    8. Initial reports suggested that Detective Sergeant Bailey became ill after coming into contact with the substance after attending the Skripals on the bench they were seated on in The Maltings in Salisbury. Subsequent claims, however, first aired by former Metropolitan Police Commissioner, Lord Ian Blair on 9th March, said that he came into contact with the substance at Sergei Skripal’s house in Christie Miller Road. Reports since then have been highly ambiguous about what should be an easily verifiable fact. Which is the correct account?

    9. The government have claimed that the poison used was “a military grade nerve agent of a type developed by Russia”. The phrase “of a type developed by Russia” says nothing whatsoever about whether the substance used in the Salisbury case was produced or manufactured in Russia. Can the government confirm that its scientists at Porton Down have established that the substance that poisoned the Skripals and DS Bailey was actually produced or manufactured in Russia?

    10. The former ambassador to Uzbekistan, Craig Murray, has claimed that sources within the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) have told him that scientists at Porton Down would not agree to a statement about the place of origin of the substance, because they were not able to establish this. According to Mr Murray, only under much pressure from the Government did they end up agreeing to the compromise wording, “of a type developed by Russia”, which has subsequently been used in all official statements on the matter. Can the FCO, in plain and unambiguous English, categorically refute Mr Murray’s claims that pressure was put on Porton Down scientists to agree to a form of words and that in the end a much-diluted version was agreed?

    11. On the occasion that the FCO did attempt to refute Mr Murray’s claims, the wording they used included a straightforward repetition of the same phrase – “of a type developed by Russia”. Is the FCO willing and able to go beyond this and confirm that the substance was not only “of a type developed by Russia”, but that it was “produced” or “manufactured” in Russia?

    12. Why did the British Government issue a 36-hour ultimatum to the Russian Government to come up with an explanation, but then refuse their request to share the evidence that allegedly pointed to their culpability (there could have been no danger of their tampering with it, since Porton Down would have retained their own sample)?

    13. How is it possible for a state (or indeed any person or entity) that has been accused of something, to defend themselves against an accusation if they are refused access to evidence that apparently points to their guilt?

    14. Is this not a clear case of the reversal of the presumption of innocence and of due process?

    15. Furthermore, why did the British Government issue an ultimatum to the Russian Government, in contravention of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) rules governing such matters, to which both Britain and Russia are signatories, and which are clearly set out in Article 9, Paragraph ii of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC)?

    16. Given that the investigation, which has been described by the man leading it as being “an extremely challenging investigation” and as having “a number of unique and complex issues”, and given that many of the facts of the case are not yet known, such as when, where and how the substance was administered, how is it possible for the British Government to point the finger of blame with such certainty?

    17. Furthermore, by doing so, haven’t they both politicised and prejudiced the investigation?

    18. Why did the British Government feel the need to come forward with an accusation little more than a week into the investigation, rather than waiting for its completion?

    19. On the Andrew Marr Show on 18th March, the Foreign Secretary, Boris Johnson, stated the following:

    “And I might just say in response to Mr Chizhov’s point about Russian stockpiles of chemical weapons. We actually had evidence within the last ten years that Russia has not only been investigating the delivery of nerve agents for the purposes of assassination, but it has also been creating and stockpiling Novichok.”

    Where has this intelligence come from and has it been properly verified?

    20. If this intelligence was known before 27th September 2017 – the date that the OPCW issued a statement declaring the completion of the destruction of all 39,967 metric tons of chemical weapons possessed by the Russian Federation – why did Britain not inform the OPCW of its own intelligence which apparently contradicts this claim, which they would have had a legal obligation to do?

    21. If this intelligence was known after 27th September 2017, why did Britain not inform the OPCW of this “new” information, which it was legally obliged to do, since it allegedly shows that Russia had been lying to the OPCW and had been carrying out a clandestine chemical weapons programme?

    22. Also on the Andrew Marr show, Mr Johnson made the following claim after a question of whether he was “absolutely sure” that the substance used to poison the Skripals was a “Novichok”:

    “Obviously to the best of our knowledge this is a Russian-made nerve agent that falls within the category Novichok made only by Russia, and just to get back to the point about the international reaction which is so fascinating.”

    Is the phrase “to the best of our knowledge” an adequate response to Mr Marr’s request of him being “absolutely sure”?

    23. Is this a good enough legal basis from which to accuse another state and to impose punitive measures on it, or is more certainty needed before such an accusation can be made?

    24. After hedging his words with the phrase, “to the best of our knowledge”, Mr Johnson then went beyond previous Government claims that the substance was “of a type developed in Russia”, saying that it was “Russian-made”. Have the scientists at Porton Down been able to establish that it was indeed “Russian-made”, or was this a case of Mr Johnson straying off-message?

    25. He also went beyond the previous claim that the substance was “of a type developed in Russia” by saying that the substance involved in the Skripal case “falls within the category Novichok made only by Russia”? Firstly, is Mr Johnson able to provide evidence that this category of chemical weapons was ever successfully synthesised in Russia, especially in the light of the OPCW’s Scientific Advisory Board stating as recently as 2013, that it has “insufficient information to comment on the existence or properties of ‘Novichoks‘“?

    26. As Craig Murray has again pointed out, since its 2013 statement, the OPCW has worked (legally) with Iranian scientists who have successfully synthesised these chemical weapons. Was Mr Johnson aware that the category of “Novichok” chemical weapons had been synthesised elsewhere when he stated that this category of chemical weapons is “made only by Russia”?

    27. Does the fact that Iranian scientists were able to synthesise this class of chemical weapons suggest that other states have the capabilities to do likewise?

    28. Is the British Government aware that the main plant involved in attempts to synthesise Novichoks in the 1970s and 1980s was based not in Russia, but in Nukus in Uzbekistan?

    29. Does the fact that the US Department of Defence decontaminated and dismantled the Nukus site, under an agreement with the Government of Uzbekistan, make it at least theoretically possible that substances or secrets held within that plant could have been carried out of the country and even back to the United States?

    30. The connection between Sergei Skripal’s MI6 recruiter, Pablo Miller, who also happens to live in Salisbury, and Christopher Steele, the author of the so-called “Trump Dossier”, has been well established, as has the fact that Mr Skripal and Mr Miller regularly met together in the City. Is this connection of any interest to the investigation into the incident in Salisbury?

    *  *  *

    If there are any journalists with integrity and inquisitive minds still living in this country, I would be grateful if they could begin doing their job and research the answers to these sorts of questions by asking the appropriate people and authorities.

  • Facebook Approached Australian Political Parties To Microtarget Voters

    In the wake of a massive data harvesting scandal, it has emerged that Facebook approached at least two major Australian political parties during the final weeks of their 2016 election in order to help them “microtarget” voters using a powerful data matching tool, reports the Sydney Morning Herald.

    Facebook offered “advanced matching” as part of their so-called Custom Audience feature to both the conservative (if not confusingly named) Liberal Party, as well as the “democratic socialist” Labor Party. The tool promised to allow the parties to compare data they had collected about voters – such as names, birth dates, phone numbers, postcodes and email addresses – and match that information to Facebook profiles.

    The combination of data sets would then allow political parties to target Australian swing voters with custom tailored ads over Facebook, which advertised a 17% increase in matching rates using a beta version of the service provided to the Liberal Party. 

    Fairfax Media reports that while the conservative Liberal Party turned Facebook down over concerns that sending voter data overseas to Facebook servers would violate the Privacy Act and the Electoral Act, the Labor Party took Facebook up on their offer. 

    Asked specifically whether Labor used the tool, a Labor spokesman said in a statement: “A range of different campaign techniques and tools are used for campaigning, from doorknocking to phone banking to online. Labor works with different groups to get our message out, including social media platforms like Facebook.

    “All of our work is in complete compliance with relevant laws, including the Commonwealth Electoral Act, which makes it a criminal offence to misuse information on the electoral roll.” –Sydney Morning Herald

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    That said, the Herald reports that the Labor Party (ALP) digital team would have “hashed” – or anonymized, any electoral roll data “on a local browser,” sources tell the Herald. This would have prevented personally identifiable information to be uploaded to foreign servers. 

    Both the Labor Party and Facebook sought to downplay the “advanced matching” feature. 

    The Custom Audiences tool is widely used by brands and advertisers to target potential customers.

    “Lots of people use the custom audience tool. Civil society groups use it too with their massive databases. I don’t think it’s anywhere near as sinister as people think,” a Labor source said.

    Facebook said in a statement: “All parties are offered the same training, materials and products – whether existing or new — at the same time. It is a decision for each campaign as to whether and how they choose to use them.”

    The company has this week been unable to say whether data of Australian users is hosted locally or offshore. –smh

    Facebook has been contacted by Australia’s privacy commissioner to with questions over Australians who may have been caught up in a massive data harvesting scandal which has unfolded over the last week – raising the possibility of sanctions against the social media giant. 

    News of Facebook’s attempt to help Australian political parties influence their 2016 election comes days after Mark Zuckerberg told CNN that the possibility of the social media giant influencing the 2016 U.S. election was “a pretty crazy idea.” 

    That’s kind of interesting considering that Facebook was also helping the Obama Campaign target voters using harvested data, similar to what Cambridge Analytica was doing for several GOP candidates in the 2016 election. Obama’s former campaign director admitted over Twitter that Facebook not only knew of the campaign’s data harvesting to “suck out the whole social graph,” but that they “didn’t stop us once they realized that was what we were doing.” 

    And WikiLeaked emails released during the 2016 election revealed that Facebook COO Cheryl Sandberg really wanted “Hillary to win badly,” after Hillary came over to Sandberg’s house and was “magical with her kids.”

    Then there’s Sandberg telling John Podesta “Look forward to working with you to elect the first woman President of the United States.” 

    Notably, there don’t seem to be any emails from Facebook executives to Trump’s campaign manager with similar sentiments. 

  • A Madman On The National Security Council?

    Authored by Matt Purple via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    John Bolton is that most ludicrous of creatures: the unreconstructed Bush-era foreign policy thinker

    Would that John Bolton were only a clown. The mustachioed alleged diplomat, briefly of the Bush administration – and initially criticized as too controversial even for that team – has now been appointed national security advisor. That position will give him the president’s ear on matters of foreign policy, as well as control over which other administration principals enjoy such access. Donald Trump pledged that if elected he would be a different kind of Republican president, and he’s delivered: under the last GOP administration, Bolton occupied a slightly lower-ranking position than he does now.

    Bolton is indeed no circus act: he’s one of the sharpest and most dangerous national security operatives in Washington. To take just one example, last summer, Trump made it known that he was considering pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal, a campaign promise he wanted fulfilled but that had been discouraged by his then-secretary of state Rex Tillerson. Sensing an opportunity, Bolton wrote an essay for National Review explaining in breezy (i.e. Trump-digestible) terms just how to abrogate the agreement. The piece is chockablock with nonsense: at one point it claims sans any evidence that the Obama administration believed the JCPOA was “disadvantageous to the United States.” It also offers scant evidence to underpin its claim that Iran was in violation of the deal, an assertion that’s been repeatedly repudiated by the authorities at the IAEA. But the truth wasn’t the point: the piece was meant to water a seed in the president’s mind, to lend expert opinion to Trump’s burning preference that the JCPOA be reversed.

    That Bolton did this shouldn’t surprise anyone because this is how Bolton works: shrewdly and always towards the goal of more war. As Gareth Porter detailed in a rigorously reported piece for TAC, during his tenure under Bush, Bolton maneuvered behind the scenes to pump up a pretext for conflict between the United States and Iran. Among his methods was to pretend that satellite images of a military base at Parchin demonstrated Iranian nuclear experimentation. That supposed smoking gun is cited to this day by neocons as proof of Iran’s atomic dreams.

    What makes Bolton unique among hawkish operators is that he doesn’t feel the need to hide any of these machinations.

    The man wants to pulverize Tehran and he’s not afraid to say so. In 2015, Bolton wrote a piece for the New York Times subtly titled “To Stop Iran’s Bomb, Bomb Iran.” Never mind that the adverbial clause in that sentence had no definitive evidence in its favor; it was off to war because, as Bolton put it, “extensive progress in uranium enrichment and plutonium reprocessing reveal [Iran’s] ambitions” (imagine if that standard was applied universally). The coming operation, Bolton promised, would be akin to Operation Opera in 1981 when Israel destroyed a single Iraqi nuclear reactor, except that this one would take out multiple installations at Natanz and Fordow and Arak and Isfahan and…

    The details never add up because they’re not supposed to. Bolton’s wheelhouse has never been the tactical nitty-gritty; he’s an ideologue whose credo dogmatizes violence against enemies regardless of consequences or cost. On the Iraq war, he declared in 2015, “I still think the decision to overthrow Saddam was correct.”  On Libya, in 2011 before the Obama administration launched its calamitous intervention, Bolton recommended that the United States assassinate Moammar GaddafiOn North Korea, he innocently suggested there was a “legal case” for a first strike. On Russia, you will not be surprised to learn that he thinks Trump needs to get tougher, including launching a cyber-attack that would be “decidedly disproportionate” to anything the Russians have done. He also thinks it’s time to revisit the “One-China Policy” that prevents us from antagonizing Beijing by recognizing an independent Taiwan.

    There are all manner of vexatious wrinkles amidst those pronouncements. For instance, a foreign policy realist might note that the deposal of Iraq’s regime and the ascendance of Shiite power in Baghdad, which Bolton supported, greatly availed Iran, which Bolton detests. But again, such nuances are dwarfed by the big-picture concepts in which Bolton deals, like American Power and Dictatorships and Strength. Most foreign policy gurus, despite supporting generally hawkish policies, have at least disowned the war in Iraq and made some perfunctory efforts to adjust for its failures. Not Bolton, who is that most ludicrous of creatures: the unreconstructed Bush-era thinker. He belongs behind a glass display in the American History Museum, not enjoying a second wind at the apex of the federal bureaucracy.

    But alas, the president himself has spoken. There are conditions to Bolton’s employment. CNN is reporting that Bolton promised Trump—quote—“he wouldn’t start any wars” if he became national security advisor, and surely that’s a promise he’ll keep. Bolton, after all, has never started (or fought in) a war in his life. What he will do is counsel Trump to take the most belligerent course of action possible in every given situation. Up first will be the Iran deal, which, with Bolton now at NSC and Mike Pompeo at State, seems certain to be the subject of a hardened stance from the White House, which will further isolate America from its allies, as the Europeans, more commercially entangled with Tehran than we are, decline to go along.

    That brings us back to Trump, the insurgent who won the 2016 election pledging to repudiate the George W. Bush legacy and keep the United States out of foreign wars.

    It’s a show of both neocon strength and Trump impressionability that a mere year and a half later the most warmongering personality in Washington has already clambered all the way up to national security advisor.

  • Turkey's Erdogan Announces Iraq Military Incursion, Threatens Americans Over Manbij

    On Sunday President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced the beginning of Turkish military operations in Iraq’s Sinjar region a week after Turkey and allied Syrian FSA groups captured Afrin from Kurdish fighters. During that prior victory speech immediately on the heels of the Syrian Kurdish retreat from Afrin, Erdogan had promised further “extensions” of his forces in the region, including into Eastern Syria and Iraq, while making repeat historical references to the Ottoman empire.

    Erdogan warned at the time that Turkish troops would keep pushing east further into Syrian Kurdish YPG territory (Kurdish “People’s Protection Units” which Turkey considers an extension of the terrorist PKK), which would eventually pit his forces against the US armed and trained Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

    During Sunday’s speech he pledged to take Tal Rifaat (northwest of Aleppo) and Manbij: “the U.S. needs to transfer the control of Manbij to its real owners from the terrorist organization as soon as possible,” according to the Turkish daily Hurriyet. US-backed forces are present in both places. 

    Turkey’s president on Sunday: “We said we would go into Sinjar [Iraq]. Now operations have begun there.” 

    Erdogan also in typically brazen fashion put Iraq’s government on notice, saying “We have told the central [Iraqi] government that the PKK is establishing a new headquarters in Sinjar. If you can deal with it, you handle it. But if you cannot we will suddenly enter Sinjar one night and clear this region of terrorists.”

    It appears he is ready to make good on that promise, as the AP reports:

    Turkey’s president has announced the country is conducting operations in northern Iraq against Kurdish rebels it deems “terrorists.”

    Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Sunday said “operations” have begun in Sinjar to clear the mountainous area of Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, fighters.

    Erdogan later said that if the PKK does not vacate Sinjar and Qandil, where it has its headquarters, “it would be inevitable for us to do so personally.”

    Erdogan announced the new engagement to a crowd in the Black Sea province of Trabzon, declaring: “We said we would go into Sinjar. Now operations have begun there. The fight is internal and external.” However, it is unclear to what degree he is merely further reiterating his prior threats and to what degree the mustering of Turkish forces for an Iraq incursion has actually begun on the ground. 

    Reuters quickly cast doubt that ground operations had actually been initiated, citing Iraq’s Joint Operations Command which denied that foreign forces had crossed the border

    Iraq’s Joint Operations Command denied that any foreign forces had crossed the border into Iraq.

    “The operations command confirmed that the situation in Nineveh, Sinjar and the border areas was under the control of Iraqi security forces and there is no reason for troops to cross the Iraqi border into those areas,” it said in a statement.

    Sources in Sinjar said there was no unusual military activity in the area on Sunday.

    Meanwhile, regional Arabic media has reported that a large Iraqi Army contingent has arrived in Sinjar on the heels of a withdrawal of PKK fighters from the region – actions which Erdogan’s threats were clearly designed to precipitate. 

    PKK fighters first moved into Sinjar in 2015 and waged an effective campaign against ISIS, but announced their withdrawal last week in the wake of Turkey’s threat of invasion, though it is unclear how many PKK fighters have remained in the area. 

    For now, it appears that Erdogan – fresh off the momentum of the Turkish annexation of Afrin – has gotten Baghdad to move on the PKK without firing a single shot. And it appears he is trying the same tactic regarding the US-backed SDF, which is unlikely to move the Americans toward action or realignment of interests.

    During the same speech announcing operations in Sinjar, Erdogan said, “Hopefully we will take control of Tal Rifaat in a short span of time.” He also threatened Syrian Kurds in Manbij while naming their US sponsors: “the U.S. needs to transfer the control of Manbij to its real owners from the terrorist organization as soon as possible,” according to the Turkish daily Hurriyet.

    In comparison to his rhetoric aimed at the Iraqi government, the Turkish president’s words regarding American forces were softened: “Of course we will not point gun to our allies, but we will not forgive terrorists.”

    It will be interesting to see to what degree the ‘mad Sultan’ actually makes good on his threats and promises, especially as his forces inevitably inch closer to American bases in northern Syria.

  • PetroYuan Futures Open – Over 10 BillIon Notional Trades In First Hour

    After all the preparation, all the expectation, cheerleading and doomsaying, China’s Yuan-denominated crude oil futures contract began trading tonight and appears to be off a good start with well over 10 billion yuan notional traded within the first hour.

    So far it has tracked WTI futures well, trading at around a $2 premium to WTI (when translated from yuan to USD)…

    Additionally, well over 23,000 contracts have traded within the first hour for a notional trading volume of over 10 billion yuan – more than $1.5 billion notional… signaling significant demand.

    Offshore Yuan is moving in sync with ‘Petroyuan’ futures – as WTI tends to track the USD.

    As we most recently noted, after numerous “false starts” over the last decade,  the “petroyuan” is now real and China will set out to challenge the “petrodollar” for dominance. Adam Levinson, managing partner and chief investment officer at hedge fund manager Graticule Asset Management Asia (GAMA), already warned last year that China launching a yuan-denominated oil futures contract will shock those investors who have not been paying attention.

    This could be a death blow for an already weakening U.S. dollar, and the rise of the yuan as the dominant world currency.

    But this isn’t just some slow, news day “fad” that will fizzle in a few days.

    A Warning for Investors Since 2015

    Back in 2015, the first of a number of strikes against the petrodollar was dealt by China. Gazprom Neft, the third-largest oil producer in Russia, decided to move away from the dollar and towards the yuan and other Asian currencies.

    Iran followed suit the same year, using the yuan with a host of other foreign currencies in trade, including Iranian oil.

    During the same year China also developed its Silk Road, while the yuan was beginning to establish more dominance in the European markets.

    But the U.S. petrodollar still had a fighting chance in 2015 because China’s oil imports were all over the place. Back then, Nick Cunningham of OilPrice.com wrote

    Despite accounting for much of the world’s growth in demand in the 21st Century, China’s oil imports have been all over the map in recent months. In April, China imported 7.4 million barrels per day, a record high and enough to make it the world’s largest oil importer. But a month later, imports plummeted to just 5.5 million barrels per day.

    That problem has since gone away, signaling China’s rise to oil dominance…

    The Slippery Slope to the Petroyuan Begins Here

    The petrodollar is backed by Treasuries, so it can help fuel U.S. deficit spending. Take that away, and the U.S. is in trouble.

    It looks like that time has come…

    A death blow that began in 2015 hit again in 2017 when China became the world’s largest consumer of imported crude

    Now that China is the world’s leading consumer of oil, Beijing can exert some real leverage over Saudi Arabia to pay for crude in yuan. It’s suspected that this is what’s motivating Chinese officials to make a full-fledged effort to renegotiate their trade deal.

    So fast-forward to now, and the final blow to the petrodollar could happen starting today. We hinted at this possibility back in September 2017

    With major oil exporters finally having a viable way to circumvent the petrodollar system, the U.S. economy could soon encounter severely troubled waters.

    First of all, the dollar’s value depends massively on its use as an oil trade vehicle. When that goes away, we will likely see a strong and steady decline in the dollar’s value.

    Once the oil markets are upended, the yuan has an opportunity to become the dominant world currency overall. This will further weaken the dollar.

    The Petrodollar’s Downfall Could be a Lift for Gold

    Amongst all the trouble ahead for the dollar, there are some good news too. The U.S. might have ditched the gold standard in the 1970’s, but with gold making a return to world headlines… we could see a resurgence.

    For the first time since our nation abandoned the gold standard decades ago, physical gold is being reintroduced to the global monetary system in a major way. That alone is incredibly good news for gold owners.

    A reintroduction of gold to the global economy could result in a notable rise in gold prices. It’s safe to assume exporters are more likely to choose a gold-backed financial instrument over one created out of thin air any day of the week.

    Soon after, we could see more and more nations jump on the bandwagon, resulting in a substantial rise in gold prices.

  • Is Anarcho-Capitalism Possible?

    Authored by Antony Mueller via Mises Canada,

    Even if one agrees that anarcho-capitalism has become a necessity, the question arises whether such a governance is possible. After all, at first sight, insurmountable problems seem to prevent the flourishing of a stateless society. Libertarianism means a private law society. Private businesses in the marketplace provide the traditional functions of the state. The voluntary contract-order of anarcho-capitalism substitutes the hierarchical commando-coordination of activities of the state. The basic meaning of anarcho-capitalism is an order where horizontal cooperation based on voluntary exchange dominates the coordination of human activities.

    Although a libertarian order amounts to a revolution as to its consequences, the path to its creation must be non-revolutionary. The spontaneous order of an anarcho-capitalist society requires that it comes about as a gradual process of privatizations. Beginning with the sale of semi-public enterprises and public utilities, privatization should extend step by step to education and health and finally encompass security and the judicial system. Supervised by an Assembly whose members are selected by lot from the constituency of the citizens, the function of government would be handed out to a private government management company.

    Under anarcho-capitalism, most of what the state supplies in services could fall to a fraction of the present volume. On a world-wide scale, military spending alone comprises around 1.7 trillion US-dollars annually. The so-called ‘public services’ would not only become better and cheaper, but it would also turn out that under a free market, the demand for education, healthcare, defense, and domestic security would be much different from how it is now. Therefore, to privatize many of the activities, which now are under the authority of state would not only lead to a decrease of the costs per unit of the services but also reduce the volume of supply because a large part of the current supply of so-called ‘public goods’ is a useless waste. Losing none of the genuine benefits of education, healthcare, and defense, the budgets for these provisions could fall to a fraction of their present size.

    If one includes the overblown judicial and public administration apparatus into the reduction of state activity, government spending, which nowadays is close to fifty percent of the gross domestic product in most industrialized countries, could come down to the single digits. Taxes and contributions could fall by ninety percent.

    Different from what is presently the dominant belief, to privatize the police functions, and the judiciary is not such a big problem. It would mean to extend what is already going on. In the United States of today, for example, private policing, such as by security guards, happens already at a grand scale and comprises more than one million persons. In some countries, including the United States, the number of private police and security already exceeds the number of official policemen. The private provision of judicial services is on the rise. Arbitration courts experience a strong and increasing demand including services for cross-border disputes.

    These trends will go on because private protection and arbitration is cheaper and better than the public provision. In Brazil, for example, which entertains one of the most expensive judicial systems of the world, currently about eighty million cases are pending without decision, and legal uncertainty has become monstrous. In the United States, many parts of the judicial system have gone berserk.

  • Eric Peters: "The Chinese Know This. Why Are They Doing It?"

    Some contemplations from the latest “Weekend Notes” by One River Asset Management CIO, Eric Peters, on recent developments in China…

    Contemplation

    He went for a long walk, trees bare. Considered his discussions with historians, experts, strategists, analysts. Articles, analyses, theories. The largest nation on earth, with 18.5% of humanity’s population, the 2nd biggest GDP, had lifted term limits for its leader. No one seemed to care, which itself seemed fascinating, said something.

    But what? He wondered. Nearly everyone accepted the rough narrative that by lifting term limits, Xi Jinping strengthened his control, allowing him to complete the anti-corruption drive, and the Belt and Road Initiative.

    He didn’t buy it. Xi Jinping surely had time to groom a successor with similar beliefs and priorities before his 2nd term ends in 2023. Besides, there’s precedent for former leaders to remain active in the wings, well beyond their formal rule.

    The 2-term limit was introduced in 1982 to save China from the ruin of uninterrupted leadership – Mao’s late legacy prompted the constitutional change. Throughout history, great nations and empires fail when they surrender their institutions to an individual.

    The Chinese know this. Why’d they do it?

    Is Beijing preparing for instability? Chinese banks have $40trln balance sheets (50% of global GDP, 3x Chinese GDP). US banks hold $17tlrn balance sheets (less than 1x US GDP).

    Might China be preparing for internal economic instability? Or perhaps it’s that the West is in deep political disarray, fractured, fighting itself.

    The unipolar American world order is crumbling, the US relinquishing leadership. Such transitions have historically produced periods of profound global risks, opportunities – Beijing knows this.  What’s the trade? He wondered.

    * * *

    … and on the history of (de)regulation in the US, and why it is only a matter of time before the government cracks down on the internet giants of the day:

    Glory Days:

    “May Day 1975 marked the start of Wall Street deregulation,” said the historian. “Banks and brokerages flourished thereafter, expanding their power and political influence.” 1998 marked peak deregulation with Clinton’s repeal of Glass-Steagall. “Pump and dump schemes of all sorts propagated; Wolf of Wall Street excesses. Then came the dot com IPO madness which led to Sarbanes Oxley.”

    The final debauchery was exposed in 2008, and led to sweeping Dodd-Frank financial regulation. “Wall Street’s been in lock-down ever since.”

    “The 1996 Telecom Act protected America’s nascent internet companies,” continued the historian. AOL started in 1985. Netscape launched in 1993, went public in 1995. Amazon launched in 1994. Yahoo 1995. Facebook 2004. YouTube 2005. “The Act protected them from liability for anything republished on their sites.” They were too weak to withstand such liability and needed nurturing to foster innovation.

    “But Facebook has a $460bln market cap. It’s not responsible for what it publishes but the NY Times is. That’s now preposterous.”

    “When Wall Street lacked regulation, any product, no matter how absurd, was welcomed through the front door and pumped out to clients through the back door,” explained the historian.

    “The greater the flow, the higher the profits. Those were the glory days.” Then regulations raised costs, stymied product development, crushed the profit model.

    “Today’s internet companies suck in free customer data through the front door, and sell it out the back door. The greater the flow, the higher the profits. They’re dominant. They’ll soon be regulated.”

  • Hedge Fund CIO: "The Market Generals Are Dead"

    Submitted by Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management, as excerpted from his latest Weekend Notes

    “Every market has its generals,” said the CIO, atop the hill, surveying the battlefield. “Bull markets march onward, upward until their leaders die,” he said, lowering his binoculars, smoke rising from the valley floor.

    Banks led the last great bull market. Fueled by reckless lending and leverage, loose regulation, moral hazard, and the wondrous illusion of boundless riches that accompany all reflexive markets, these generals charged ever upward, looting, pillaging. Leading the troops. Until they didn’t.

    The S&P 500 peaked in October 2007, then fell 58%. When it bottomed seventeen months later in March 2009, Citigroup stock lay in the dust, trampled, mangled, mutilated beyond all recognition.

    Citi’s stock price had collapsed 98.3% from its 2007 highs. It never really recovered. Bank of America plunged 95%. Morgan Stanley fell 91%. Goldman 82%. JP Morgan 72%.

    “I suspected that regulation would be the death of the current market’s technology generals,” he said, turning to his table, unrolling a map. “I was right.”

    From the 2009 lows through the recent highs, the S&P 500 advanced 331%. In that drive, Facebook rallied 413% (from its 2013 IPO), Amazon surged 2102%, Apple 1123%, Netflix 5349%, and Google 586%.

    “The generals are dead.” From recent highs, Facebook has stumbled 18%, Amazon 8%, Apple 10%, Netflix 10%, Google 14%.

    “Trading market tops is difficult,” he explained, “That’s where we are now.” With his finger, he traced the advances and retreats of the S&P 500 since WWII. Nearly every top was a volatile series of skirmishes lasting 6-18mths, before the real decline. The notable exception being 1987.

    “The generals are dead, but the economy remains strong.” Employment, wages, profits too. “The bull case is all backward looking. It describes why it makes sense to stay invested. But it’s intellectually bankrupt,” he said, repositioning his troops on the map. “You get paid for the future, not the past.”

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Today’s News 25th March 2018

  • Diplomacy For Peace Or Preparations For War?

    Authored by Federico Pieraccini via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    After a series of high-level meetings between officials from Seoul and Pyongyang, the proposal for a face-to-face meeting between the American and North Korean leaders appeared before President Trump, who without much hesitation accepted, upsetting the last 50 years of relations between the countries.

    Donald Trump tweeted:

    “Kim Jong Un talked about denuclearization with the South Korean Representatives, not just a freeze. Also, no missile testing by North Korea during this period of time. Great progress being made but sanctions will remain until an agreement is reached. Meeting being planned!”

    In the blink of an eye, fifty years of international relations were overturned in a tweet.

    Skillful South Korean diplomacy had also been working towards this end for months. The meetings at the Olympics between Korean diplomats, and in general the good relations between the two countries, have facilitated a thawing of tensions, leading to dialogue that has come after months of insults and threats being thrown between Washington and Pyongyang.

    The next move in the White House saw the dismissal of Rex Tillerson, with Mike Pompeo replacing him as Secretary of State. And National Security Advisor H.R McMaster was shown the door in what looks like a big shake-up within the White House, with two central matters looming in the coming months and years for the Trump presidency. The American president is focused on creating his legacy, seeking to eclipse that of his predecessors by achieving a peace agreement and trying to avoid a foreign country. The backdrop for these events is a weak American foreign policy exacerbated by the absence of strategic military planning, and a president who has the constant need to give the impression of being strong, in control, esteemed by his colleagues, and not in conflict with a portion of Washington’s security establishment.

    Trump’s intention to seek political agreements with his opponents is offset by his inflammatory “fire and fury” statements and his shameful speech to the United Nations threatening to “totally destroy” North Korea (as the Americans already did in the Korean War during the 1950s). In line with this schizophrenic attitude, Tillerson has been removed from office to send two very important messages to Pyongyang and Tehran. If diplomacy fails, the military option remains on the table.

    This military threat, however, is unrealistic if not unattainable, and its consequences unforeseeable. It is strongly opposed by many in Washington as well as by its allies and enemies. Trump, however, loves employing bombastic rhetoric and brinkmanship to reinforce the idea that even the unthinkable may be thinkable. Given the image that he has built in recent months, this madman strategy seems to dovetail with the strategic intentions of the White House.

    The idea is to present Pyongyang with two options: a diplomatic opening and relative trust in negotiations, but at the same time leaving open the option of war if diplomacy fails. Kim for his part is certainly more rational and grounded in his actions than Trump. His father tried negotiating with Washington a couple of decades ago, only to see the United States allowing it to fail, thus forcing Kim Jong-un to embrace the only possible solution left to him to ensure survival of his country, namely nuclear weapons as a deterrent. While the sanctions and international isolation visited on the DPRK have played a role in bringing Pyongyang to the negotiating table, the acquisition of a credible nuclear deterrent has served to reassure Kim Jong-un, while also strengthening his negotiating hand vis-a-vis Washington.

    As evidence of this theory, the proposal for a face-to-face meeting was put to the United States by South Korea, with Kim presumably assenting, even if Pyongyang has yet to respond. But the move is shrewd, showcasing the diplomatic skills of the North Koreans. If Washington were to sabotage the meeting, the blame would fall entirely on the United States, with Pyongyang being left off the hook as they are yet to accept.

    There are big question marks over the topic of discussion and over what agreements can be reached in the first meeting.

    Certain hypotheses can be made, and other requests can already be excluded.

    For example, it is practically impossible for the peninsula to find itself free from the American presence. The United States is stationed in Korea especially to contain China and increase pressure around Russia, placing ABM systems that threaten the Sino-Russian nuclear deterrent. For the US the issue is much more than simply opposing a country like Pyongyang. The THAAD system is in fact directed at China and Russia, while it has little operational effectiveness against any missiles launched from North Korea.

    The other hypothesis, currently unattainable, concerns the dismantling of Korean nuclear weapons. The request is impossible without an all-encompassing agreement that would see the the US relinquishing its presence on the peninsula. The argument plays in North Korea’s favor, because here is Pyongyang contemplating the abandonment of its nuclear weapons, while Washington refused to entertain any thought of abandoning its military position on the peninsula.

    Realistically, an intense dialogue could put a halt to provocative exercises by South Korea and the United States, as well as halt Pyongyang’s testing of new nuclear-capable missiles. This would then open the way for a continuation of direct negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang while also allowing for the inclusion of other regional actors, namely, South Korea, China, Japan and Russia.

    It would effectively be a return to the six-party negotiations, which for over a decade attempted to accommodate the concerns of all the parties in an effort to reach a peace deal.

    Trump and Kim’s unpredictability could bring new twists and turns that further buck the norms and conventions governing international relations. This scenario is certainly dangerous, but it is also full of possibilities. The personalities of these two leaders could be what will ultimately make the difference.

  • Caught On Camera: Israel Targets Civilians With A Chemical Weapon Drone

    For the first time, Lebanon-based Al-Mayadeen TV released new dramatic footage showing Israeli forces using a weaponized unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) against a Hamas rally in the Gaza Strip, according to the Times of Israel.

    The short video clip published by Al-Mayadeen shows a weaponized unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) targeting demonstrations in the southern Gaza Strip, controlled by the Palestinian militant group Hamas.

    The UAV is seen flying through the skies above hundreds of protestors, while operators of the aircraft drop chemical weapons into the crowd. The Times of Israel states that the UAV released tear gas, formally known as a lachrymator agent, which causes severe eye and respiratory pain, skin inflammation, bleeding, and even blindness.

    The intense footage could provide us with the early knowledge that governments are willing to use high-tech military technology against civilians in a non-combat environment…

    Israeli Border Police Deputy Commissioner Yaakov Shabtai, the government official behind the deployment of the weaponized unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), told Hadashot TV news that the tear gas drone provides security forces with an extended range to hurl chemical weapons at protestors.

    “Beyond the fact that this equipment neutralizes any danger to the troops, it enables reaching places that until now we could not get to,” Shabtai told Hadashot TV news.

    The weaponized unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) “can carry up to six canisters at a time, and drop them individually, as clusters, or all at the same time,” said the Times of Israel.

    The Israeli-based online newspaper did not provide the manufacture’s name of the UAV, but it is rumored that ISPRA Ltd in Herzelya, Israel, is the developer of the drone, dubbed Cyclone Riot Control Drone System.

    ISPRA’s Anti Riot Drone provides law enforcement units with an extremely large range mode of work, enabling them to react against rioters and demonstrators at an early stage of the event, at a distance while avoiding direct confrontation with rioters. This unique and innovative solution, developed by Ispra, allows law enforcement units to react when a barrier or obstacle is separating between the parties. With several drones, a continuous presence over the rioters can be maintained, dispersing non-lethal ammunition and providing commanders with real-time video image of the situation on the ground.  

    Developers of ISPRA present a short informational video of how the chemical weapon drone works.

    The Times of Israel adds that Israeli officials are preparing for months of border protests, which will lead to a large demonstration on May 15. According to an Israeli TV report, Hamas, a Palestinian Sunni-Islamic fundamentalist organization, has budgeted $10 million to fund the upcoming protests.

    “We want to frighten the Israelis with the images of massive crowds of people who peaceably gather and sit close to the border,” Hamas spokesman Ahmed Abu Retaima recently told Bloomberg.

    Retaima added, “We are working to bring out more than 100,000 people for the march.”

    Meanwhile, Sputnik news agency states that Israel did not sign the Chemical Weapons Convention of 1993, which enables the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to legally deploy chemical weapons such as tear gas against civilians.

    “The use of tear gas in quelling civil disturbances is legal; however, the use of tear gas in warfare was banned by the Chemical Weapons Convention of 1993, to which Israel was not a signatory, but has acceded.”

    Israel’s decision blend high-tech drone technology coupled with chemical weapons against civilians paints a turbulent outlook for spring uprisings in the region. Nevertheless, please do not mention this technology to the countless militarized police forces across the United States; otherwise, this dystopian technology is coming to a town near you.

  • The Death Of Democracy

    Authored by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,

    Anyone who thinks democracy doesn’t matter may be in for a rude shock later this year, when we know the result of America’s mid-term elections. The Deep State is on course to take control of Congress. If this happens, it will be the next step in a global trend of side-lining democracy in the West, driven in large part by American foreign policy. It has led to governments everywhere increasing control over their people, in an inversion of democratic principles.

    It affects us all. Since the Twin Towers tragedy, American foreign policy has taken the lead in extending personal surveillance to every nation in the formerly free world. It has forced banks to divulge their customers’ private affairs in the name of preventing terrorism, crime and tax evasion. Governments that resist these moves have been destabilised, and independent agencies, such as the SWIFT banking system, have been forced to implement America’s foreign policy.

    All countries have been made to go along with America’s imperatives, admittedly often willingly. Swiss banking confidentiality no longer exists, and over one hundred countries automatically swap financial information on their citizens and their businesses. The Americans routinely spy on their allies, as Mrs Merkel found out in 2015.

    The erosion of democracy in America is a problem that was anticipated in its founding constitution. The rights enshrined in it are there to protect the individual from the Federal Government, yet the Federal Government chips away at those rights, as the founding fathers doubtless feared it would. The right to keep and bear arms in the Second Amendment, always a contentious issue, was framed by James Madison so that a local militia would be able to repel a standing [Federal] army. Americans still have the right to bear arms, due to the efforts of the National Rifle Association, but as the Bundy family discovered in Nevada, don’t expect the Federal government to respect your constitutional rights.

    Few people think of freedom in these terms today, but a further erosion of democracy is an urgent issue facing American voters in November. It appears that a large number of former and current military and intelligence operatives are seeking nomination as Democrats for the 2018 mid-term elections. And if the Democrats succeed in getting a majority in the House of Representatives, which is the current prediction, they could comprise as much as half of the new members, in effect controlling Congress by holding the balance of power.

    The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has identified 102 seats as “competitive” in its red-to-blue campaign programme. Eighty of these seats are vulnerable Republicans, and 22 are seats where the incumbent is retiring. 57 of the 221 candidates standing for the Democratic nomination in these 102 districts are current or past agents of the military-intelligence complex. And of those 102 districts, 44 have one of these candidates, 11 have two, and one has three. Furthermore, there are indications that the financial backers of the Democratic Party are supporting this influx of intelligence operatives, and that they are well-funded.

    Why should we worry?

    These candidates either represent or have strong links with the military-intelligence complex. This complex, the Deep State, has already regained a high degree of influence over the White House following the last Presidential election, to the point where it now appears to have gained control over foreign policy.

    It also dictates homeland security. Unsatisfied with the degree of control it has over the White House, the Deep State now appears to be seeking to control Congress as well, by having politicians in its pocket on both sides of the House, thereby holding the balance of votes.

    While the military-intelligence complex has had a tight grip on America’s foreign policy for some time, this is a new development. Whatever the merits or otherwise of the leading candidates for the Presidency, the CIA appears to have been managing the democratic process for decades, so that their preferred candidate wins. First, there was Papa Bush, ex-Director of the CIA. He was followed by Bill Clinton, Governor of Arkansas, where it has been alleged the CIA used Mena Intermountain Municipal Airport as a drop point for secret operations. Whether this was true or not, Clinton was followed by Bush Junior, when 9/11 became the justification for the second Iraq invasion. And there can be little doubt Obama quickly toed the CIA line with the appointment of a compliant Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State.

    Following Obama, who was little more than a puppet president, Hillary was the anointed one, but then the voters rebelled and elected The Donald instead.

    There can be no doubt that the chaos in the White House since Trump’s victory has reflected a fight behind the scenes for control of foreign policy, homeland security and military spending. It has been about the CIA’s ultimately successful attempts to ensure Trump backtracked on relevant electoral promises and complies with its own agenda. So far, Trump has backed down on Russia, North Korea, Iran and on military spending, suggesting he is well on the way to becoming the Deep State’s lackey. It now seems the CIA wants to control the balance of power in Congress.

    This should be deeply troubling for Americans looking to draw a line under the erosion of their democracy. The US is already on its way to becoming a hidden dictatorship, where even the President is a captive of an unelected secret agency pursuing its own belligerent agenda. America’s allies should also be worried about taking direction from America’s intelligence community, no longer pursuing a balanced diplomatic itinerary, but one of geopolitical warmongering.

    Seeking to control Congress is a logical extension of pre-existing Deep State policies. We have gone from the invention of weapons of mass destruction as an excuse to topple Saddam Hussein, to false-flag operations and other wars in the Middle East and Eurasia. And how much of the current anti-Russia rhetoric is concocted by American intelligence agencies, we may never know, but given the intelligence services’ stock in trade is disinformation and propaganda, it is hard to believe indisputable facts are involved.

    There can be little doubt that moving missile systems towards Russia’s borders in the years after the collapse of the old Soviet Union has ensured America would continue to be seen by the Russians as an aggressor. The better, more democratic course, would have been to open borders to trade and cultural influence. And who knows, the need for a nationalistic strong man may not have arisen and Putin, if he continued in power in these altered circumstances, might be behaving very differently. But that would have meant the intelligence-military complex would have no purpose, beyond America’s diminishing domestic security.

    Money is the root of this evil

    For a long time, the senior operators at the top of the CIA must have felt that they are the masters of the human race. Regimes came and went at the CIA’s behest, but the CIA carried on regardless. To maintain this power, at a time when China and Russia are emerging as the powerhouses of Asia, requires more money, and lots of it. Money to bribe and subsidise foreign states: China is now the greatest source of funds for the world’s independent regimes. Money for technology and hardware: Russia’s military technology and missile capability is now potentially more advanced than America’s.

    Therefore, the Deep State has a looming funding problem if it is to keep up with Russia and China on its accustomed terms. Government military funding is by means of the discretionary spending allocation that is set by Congress through the annual appropriations process. As well as that, there’s a classified amount allocated for the main intelligence departments, including the CIA. Taken together, Department of Defense and Overseas Contingency Operations, which includes funding wars on foreign soil, are budgeted at $886bn for 2019, a minor increase over 2018.

    These amounts will have to be increased significantly for 2020, if the Deep State is to pursue its objectives. President Trump is now onside, but Congress will need to be compliant in order to ensure the funds required will be available. That appears to be the explanation why the Deep State is seeking to take control of Capitol Hill.

    This will take the geopolitical conflict with China and Russia to a new level. Their own intelligence services will almost certainly be fully aware of the American Deep State’s congressional manoeuvres. It might explain the timing of Russia’s pre-emptive announcement, that it has missiles capable of delivering a punch at Mach 20. It might also explain China’s recent announcement of its intention to increase military spending, even though the timing is likely to have been set by the recent National Peoples’ Congress.

    If the US military-intelligence complex manages to pack out Congress, it will be the killer blow for any democracy remaining in America. It will clear the field for a secret state organisation, which has shown little or no regard for human life and the rule of law, to accelerate its warlike agenda. It will have unfettered access to the national finances to accelerate its programme of global aggression, and damn the consequences for anyone else.

    The stakes could hardly be higher.

  • Yahoo Japan Plans To Launch Cryptocurrency Exchange Amid FSA Crackdown

    Japanese crypto regulators sent crypto prices spiraling lower earlier this month when they announced a heavy-handed crackdown on seven local cryptocurrency exchanges (and ordered month-long suspensions for two more).

    As CoinTelegraph reports, the Japanese Financial Services Agency (FSA) has sent “punishment notices” to seven crypto exchanges and temporarily halted the activities of two more after a round of inspections prompted by January’s Coincheck hack, CNBC reports Thursday, March 8.

    The FSA issued business improvement orders for a lack of “the proper and required internal control systems” to seven exchanges, including Coincheck, which was specifically cited as lacking a system for preventing money laundering and the financing of terrorism.

    The crackdown followed a historic theft of more than $500 million of NEM tokens from the Japanese exchange CoinCheck, which had been attributed to the fact that the exchange stored its customers’ funds in a low-security wallet. Regulators also discovered that an employee at unlicensed exchange Bit Station had improperly accessed customers’ coins.

    And yesterday, the FSA warned Binance, a popular Hong Kong based exchange that was launched last year after issuing an initial coin offering, that it must either obtain a license or cease operating in Japan. 

    Yahoo

    Meanwhile, in what appears to be a bid to avoid scrutiny from the FSA, Japan’s 16 licensed cryptocurrency exchanges are planning to launch a self-regulatory body similar to FINRA.

    Perhaps sensing an opening, Yahoo Japan is planning to launch a regulated bitcoin exchange, according to a Nikkei report published Friday. Instead of building the exchange from scratch, Yahoo Japan plans to acquire a 40% stake in BitARG Exchange Tokyo, one of the 16 licensed exchanges, and use its technology to build a new exchange, to be launched in April 2019, or later. 

    The shares will be purchased for 2 billion yen ($19 million) via BitARG’s subsidiary YJFX, a forex trading platform.

    The news had no discernible impact on crypto prices, which continued to drift lower Friday morning.

    Bitcoin

    Earlier this week, Japanese officials attending the G-20 summit in Buenos Aires defended cryptocurrencies, arguing they were not a threat to broader financial stability…

    Unlike so many of his peers, BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has refused to slam cryptocurrencies – instead choosing to highlight the crypto “wealth effect” which he said could have a positive impact on GDP.

    Japan became the first G-10 country to adopt a comprehensive regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies last year when legislation recognizing bitcoin as money – and clearing the way for financial institutions to deal in crypto – was signed into law.

  • American Adults Have Never Been Fatter

    40% of American adults are obese, a sharp increase from a decade earlier and a record high. according to federal health officials

    A National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) sampling of 27,449 adults with a BMI between 30 and 40 found that among those aged 20 years and older, obesity went from 33.7% in 2007-2008 to 39.6% in 2015-2016. Severe obesity – those with a BMI above 40, jumped from 5.7% to 7.7% over the same period.

    The increase in obesity among the 16,875 youth sampled was much lower, going from 16.8% a decade ago to 18.5% in 2015-2016. Still pretty bad.

    For reference, this kid was considered fat in 1985… 

    National trends

    The CDC has prepared handy list of statistics as well as maps of average obesity by state, as well as by race. In a nutshell, the south is a hotbed of obesity.  

    Of note: 

    • Obesity decreased by level of education. Adults without a high school degree or equivalent  had the highest self-reported obesity 
    • Young adults were half as likely to have obesity as middle-aged adults. 

    Obesity Prevalence in 2016 Varies Across States and Territories

    • All states had more than 20% of adults with obesity.
    • 35% or more adults had obesity in 5 states (Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and West Virginia).
    • The South had the highest prevalence of obesity (32.0%), followed by the Midwest (31.4%), the Northeast (26.9%), and the West (26.0%).

    Overall:

    White adults:

    Black adults

    Hispanic adults

    Public health experts said that they were alarmed by the continuing rise in obesity among adults and by the fact that efforts to educate people about the health risks of a poor diet do not seem to be working. –Miami Herald

    “Most people know that being overweight or obese is unhealthy, and if you eat too much that contributes to being overweight,” says Dr. James Krieger, clinical professor of medicine at the University of Washington and executive director of the advocacy group Healthy Food America. “But just telling people there’s a problem doesn’t solve it.

    Unfortunately, as The Herald notes, the recent reports on American “greatness” comes at a time when the food industry’s pushback against nutritional labeling was answered by a Trump administration proposal during recent NAFTA negotiations which would limit the ability for the U.S., Mexico and Canada to require prominent labels warning of health risks. 

    So transparency over nutrition looks to be shrinking…

    Meanwhile, here’s a 2011 map of states in which U.S. adults are meeting aerobic and muscle-strengthening guidelines, courtesy of the CDC.

    And as The Herald also notes, Americans are cramming their craws with more fast food than ever…

    While the latest survey data do not explain why Americans continue to get heavier, nutritionists and other experts cite lifestyle, genetics and, most importantly, a poor diet as factors. U.S. fast-food sales rose 22.7 percent from 2012-2017, according to Euromonitor, while packaged-food sales rose 8.8 percent. –Miami Herald

    In other words, Novo Nordisk is probably going to sell lot of insulin in the coming decades, notwithstanding the development of a lab-grown pancreas or similar scientific breakthroughs.  

  • Jamie Dimon Makes His Average Employee's Annual Salary In One Day

    It should come as no surprise that Jamie Dimon makes a lot of money; after all, one of the trademark statements by the CEO of the bank that was first handed Bear Stearns on a silver platter for pennies on the dollar and just a few months later was bailed out by the government, is “that’s why I am richer than you.

    To underscore this, in 2015 Dimon, whose bank was forced to disclosure to clients and investors that it was caught rigging the FX market… 

    officially became a billionaire, largely thanks to JPM’s soaring stock price.

    “The odds are much, much lower for a bank CEO becoming a billionaire than a guy going to a hedge fund or private equity,” said Roy Smith, a professor at New York University Stern and a former Goldman partner who started on Wall Street in 1966. “The real lucre in this business has always been on the transactional side. The CEOs of Wall Street have to deal with litigation, regulation and the relatively short tenures you have at the top of the pile.”

    However, the odds soar when JPM, like every other bank, got a multi-billion bailout courtesy of US taxpayers after it – and its other bank peers – had taken on so much risk the entire system imploded. One wonders what Jamie’s net worth would have been had Americans not collectively “decided” it is time to make Jamie the richest bank CEO currently to have a job.

    And while one can debate “what would have been” until one is blue in the face, there is no debating that last year Jamie Dimon went from stinking rich to stinking richer, by $28.3 million to be precise.

    None of the above is new. What may comes as news to some, however, is that Dimon makes 364 times the median JP Morgan employee who received $77,799 last year, including firm-paid benefits. In other words, in one day Jamie Dimon earned as much as a typical JPM employee made in one whole year.

    The only bank CEO who makes more relative to their employees is Citigroup chief Mike Corbat, whose 2017 take of $17.8 million was 369x the median employee at $48,249, according to the FT.

    As the FT breaks down, “Dimon’s total award of $28.3m included perks such as personal use of corporate aircraft ($73,921), personal use of cars ($29,848) and the cost of “residential and related security” ($48,259). But the bulk of his pay came in stock awards ($21.5m), bumped up after a year of record annual net income of $26.5bn, excluding the effects of the tax reform, on record revenues of $104bn.”

    Third in line is Charlie Scharf of Bank of New York Mellon – Dimon’s protégé, who raked in nearly $20 million after becoming BNYs CEO last July. Scharf’s payout puts him at 354x the average BNY Mellon employee

    The median ratio for all listed U.S. banks is 135x according to Autonomous. 

    The disclosures of pay multiples, mandated by the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010, finally came into effect for all listed US companies this year. Critics say such figures are a crude metric, telling investors very little about the composition of a company’s workforce or the particular ways in which it has identified the “median” worker. But advocates say the tool is necessary as a way to restrain pay for top executives, which has consistently outpaced gains for lower-ranked workers. –FT

    The pay ratio figures – mandated by the Dodd-Frank act, were arrived at by taking its top 10 most populous countries – which constitute approximately 97% of JPMorgan’s employee headcount of 253,500. Salaries of employees hired during 2017 were annualized. 

    As FT reports, JP Morgan began using so-called “performance share units” as part of variable pay for management following a 2015 challenge by investor advocacy groups calling for a stronger tie between compensation and performance. JP Morgan’s three-person compensation committee led by former ExxonMobil CEO Lee Raymond said “In determining Mr. Dimon’s compensation, the independent members of the Board took into account the Firm’s strong performance in 2017 and through the cycle, across four broad categories: Business Results; Risk, Controls & Conduct; Client/Customer Focus; and Teamwork & Leadership.”

    Dimon has never sold a share of JP Morgan in his 14-year career at the bank. In fact, as FT reports, sometimes he buys more during dips, and famously purchased 500,000 JPM shares in February 2016, the so-called “Dimon Bottom“, just before the Shanghai Accord, which sent global stocks soaring, and more than doubled the value of his $26.6 million investment. 

    * * *

    Of course, being a shrewd investor with a remarkable sense of imminent central bank bailouts – or simply the recipient thereof – is not the only reason why Jamie makes tens of millions each year and is a billionaire. Here are some other reason why, from the bank which has paid hundreds of millions in legal settlements and criminal charges over the years:

    Misleading CDO Investments

    Quick Stats

    • JP Morgan fined $153.6 million
    • Settled on 6/21/2011
    • Case Details

    The SEC settled with JP Morgan after it was discovered that the company misled investors on the complexity of a number of CDOs that were being offered. Specifically, the firm failed to notify investors that it had taken short positions in more than half of the assets bundled in said CDOs. The company did not admit to any wrongdoing or deny the allegations, but it agreed to pay $18.6 million in disgorgement, $2 million in prejudgment interest, and $133 million as a penalty. It was also required that the company change how it reviews and approves certain mortgage securities.

    Anticompetitive Conduct in Municipal Bonds

    Quick Stats

    • JP Morgan fined $228 million
    • Settled on 7/7/2011
    • Case Details

    JP Morgan settled an anticompetitive case with the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) in which it was forced to admit wrongdoing and knowledge of its illegal actions. “By entering into illegal agreements to rig bids on certain investment contracts, JPMorgan and its former executives deprived municipalities of the competitive process to which they were entitled” said Assistant Attorney General Christine Varney of the case. The charges stemmed from actions the company took from 2001 to 2006.

    Foreclosure Abuses and “Robo-Signing”

    Quick Stats

    • JP Morgan fined $5.29 billion
    • Settled on 2/9/2012
    • Case Details

    This gargantuan settlement came as the DOJ fined the five largest mortgage servicers in the nation. The entire suit was for $25 billion and was centered around “robo-signing” affidavits in foreclosure proceedings, “deceptive practices in the offering of loan modifications; failures to offer non-foreclosure alternatives before foreclosing on borrowers with federally insured mortgages; and filing improper documentation in federal bankruptcy court.” All banks involved, including JP Morgan, have until 2/9/2015 to comply with the settlement [see also The Unofficial Dividend.com Guide to Being an Investor].

    More Mortgage Misrepresentation

    Quick Stats

    • JP Morgan fined $269.9 million
    • Settled on 11/16/2012
    • Case Details

    Settled with the SEC, this case focused on JP Morgan misstating the delinquency status of mortgage loans that were collateral for residential mortgage-backed securities in which JP Morgan was the underwriter. It was found that investors lost $37 million on undisclosed delinquent loans. “Misrepresentations in connection with the creation and sale of mortgage securities contributed greatly to the tremendous losses suffered by investors once the U.S. housing market collapsed” said Robert Khuzami, Director of SEC’s Division of Enforcement.

    Improper Foreclosures Pt. 2

    Quick Stats

    • JP Morgan fined $1.8 billion
    • Settled in 01/2013
    • Case Details

    Continuing from the 2/9/2012 fine, JP Morgan tacked on another $1.8 billion to its already massive fine of $5.29 billion, totaling just over $7 billion. Combined, it is the company’s largest fine ever up to that point. That record would not stand for long, as the latter half of 2013 had other plans for the financial blue chip.

    Electricity Trading Scandal

    Quick Stats

    • JP Morgan fined $410 million
    • Settled on 7/30/2013
    • Case Details

    This fine was brought on by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) as it was discovered that JP Morgan was manipulating energy markets in California and the Midwest. In total, $125 million of unjust profits were returned and $285 million came as a civil penalty to be sent back to the U.S. Treasury.

    Illegal Credit Card Practices

    Quick Stats

    • JP Morgan fined $389 million
    • Settled on 9/19/2013
    • Case Details

    This fine was the result of JP Morgan deceiving customers into signing up for costly, unnecessary services when opening a new credit card. Broken down, $309 million of that figure was dedicated to repaying consumers, there was a $60 million civil penalty, and a separate $20 million penalty from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

    The London Whale

    Quick Stats

    • JP Morgan fined $920 million
    • Settled on 9/19/2013
    • Case Details

    One of the most infamous cases over the last few years is the “London Whale,” which refers to two former JP Morgan traders who committed fraud to cover up massive losses (approximately $6 billion) in a trading portfolio. “JPMorgan failed to keep watch over its traders as they overvalued a very complex portfolio to hide massive losses” said George S. Canellos, Co-Director of the SEC’s Division of Enforcement. The SEC slapped JP Morgan with the fine and also forced the firm to admit to wrongdoing.

    The Fannie and Freddie Fines

    Quick Stats

    • JP Morgan fined $5.1 billion
    • Settled on 10/25/2013
    • Case Details

    The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) acted as a conservator for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in this settlement. The fine included a $4 billion charge to address infractions of both state and federal laws while another $1.1 billion went to Fannie and Freddie themselves – $670 million to the former and $480 million to the latter. Yet another case that was based on mortgage-related securities at its core, which is something of a theme for the company.

    Institutional Mortgage Securities

    Quick Stats

    • JP Morgan fined $4.5 billion
    • Settled on 11/15/2013
    • Case Details

    No surprises here, yet another case where JP Morgan was accused of shelling out less-than-stable mortgages. This time, however, the focus was on 21 institutional investors as opposed to a mass of retail investors. The $4.5 billion settlement covers the losses incurred from instruments that were sold between 2005 and 2008. Shortly before this case settled, the company disclosed for the first time that it had $23 billion set aside for legal expenses and penalties.

    The Big One: Misleading “Toxic Mortgages”

    Quick Stats

    • JP Morgan fined $13 billion
    • Settled on 11/19/2013
    • Case Details

    In the largest fine (of any single company) in corporate history, JP Morgan settled for $13 billion in November of 2013. The charges stemmed from misleading investors on what regulators dubbed “toxic mortgages.” The settlement also dictated that the company had to admit wrongdoing in that it knowingly misled investors on the quality of these securities. This has been one of the few times in recent memory that the company has actually offered a “mea culpa.” Of the $13 billion, $9 billion will be used to settle federal and state civil claims while $4 billion will be used as relief to aid consumers harmed by the unlawful practice.

    Libor Rigging Scandal

    Quick Stats

    • JP Morgan fined $108 million
    • Settled on 12/4/2013
    • Case Details

    The alleged manipulation of the London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor) was one of the biggest European cases in recent memory. When the dust finally settled, it was found that a number of banks, including Citigroup (C ) and JP Morgan were involved. JP Morgan settled for $108 million as the investigation could not find any evidence that management had knowledge of the actions of the two traders who committed the act [see also The Ten Commandments of Dividend Investing].

    Madoff Retribution

    Quick Stats

    • JP Morgan fined $1.7 billion
    • Settled on 1/6/2014
    • Case Details

    The Bernie Madoff ponzi scheme is one of the most infamous in the history of the investing world. After faking portfolio gains and eventually losing billions for his clients, Madoff was sentenced to 150 years in prison (after pleading guilty) and had to forfeit $17.179 billion. His scheduled release from Federal prison is on 11/14/2139. The high profile case cost JP Morgan $1.7 billion along with an onslaught of negative press.

    Currency Manipulation

    Quick Stats

    • JP Morgan fined $1.34 Billion
    • Settled on 11/21/2014
    • Case Details

    JP Morgan joined the likes of UBS, Citigroup, and Royal Bank of Scotland in being fined for currency manipulation and collusion-like efforts on the part of the financial institutions. Investigations revealed instant messages between traders of the institutions showing plans to buy and sell currencies after market close in order to manipulate foreign exchanges in their favor. JP Morgan was fined $996 million by U.S. and U.K. regulators along with an additional $350 million dollar fine from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC).

    And so on, and so on, and so on…

  • JPMorgan: "We See Risk Of Institutional Capitulation"

    One week ago, JPMorgan – which at the start of March warned that  based on the recent “erratic behavior of retail investors” the idea that retail investors will serve as the marginal buyer of equities in the current environment was in jeopardy – found some solace in that week’s record equity ETF inflows of over $40 billion, which suggested to the bank that retail investors are once again the “marginal buyer of equities” even as institutional investors continued to quietly sell their equity holdings.

    However, being a fickle, momentum-chasing bunch, it did not take long for mom and pop retail investor to pull a 180 and for record inflows to turn into near-record outflows, because as we reported yesterday using the latest EPFR data, last week saw $20 billion in equity fund outflows, the second highest on record, and only smaller compared to the record outflows observed in the February 5 VIXplosion week when countless retail vol-sellers were crucified instantly when XIV experienced an “acceleration event.”

    Meanwhile, more ominously, JPM had noted that no matter what retail investors did, institutions appeared to have no interest in re-entering the market, on the contrary, they appeared to be quietly liquidating  to retail investors, a trend which incidentally started around the time of the last market peak in 2007, and hasn’t changed since.

    Well, it’s only logical that if institutions didn’t like the market last week when it was levitating on no volume back to all time high, then they certainly would not like it this week, when the Dow Jones reentered a correction, down over 10% from the January 26 high.

    And, as JPM’s NIck Panigirtzoglou wrote late on Friday in his latest “Flows and Liquidity” report, “Institutional investors continued to act as a drag for the equity market and if anything they appear to have turned even more cautious over the past week.”  This is shown in the table below which lays out the equity beta for various institutional investors, from Equity L/S, to Macro, to CTA, to risk parity and concludes with balanced (60/40 equity bond) mutual funds.

    The table shows that all betas declined in the most recent period between March 13th to March 21st, indicating ongoing equity unwinds and deleveraging. More notably, Risk Parity funds saw a sharp decline in their beta over the past week in response to the rise in volatility, while both Macro and CTA funds now appear to have taken an outright net short position as their betas turned negative in the last week. 

    Here JPMorgan asks what has made institutional investors so cautious over the past month, and responds that “there are three main reasons cited by clients in our conversations”:

    1. Macro forces have turned less supportive. The cyclical momentum of the global economy appears to be downshifting as suggested by this week’s flash PMIs. And an apparent escalation of trade wars is increasing macro downside risks.
    2. Institutional investors think upward momentum in equity markets appears broken. As a result, chasing long-term equity momentum no longer looks as attractive as an investment strategy.
    3. Equity valuations are still frothy, and therefore the 9% correction so far since the Jan 26th peak appears not enough to trigger “buy the dip” flows.

    Whatever the reasons for this stubbornly cautious stance by institutional investors, Panigirtzoglou warns that it is emerging as a headwind for equity markets. Here JPM’s flows expert picks up where JPM’s chief technical analyst, Jason Hunter, left off yesterday, when as a reminder Hunter cautioned that should the S&P slide below 2,610, that clients should reduce exposure to the S&P (the S&P closed Friday at 2,588, just above the 200DMA of 2,585).

    So what happens next according?

    According to the JPM strategist “the biggest near-term risk for equity markets is a breach of the lows we saw on Thursday, Feb 8th” and adds that “anecdotally, during that Thursday, fundamental equity investors came close to capitulation, so revisiting these lows raises the risk of capitulation, in our view, and thus of a more serious correction beyond the 10% decline seen between January 26th and February 8th.

    As the chart below shows, we are nearly there.

    What about retail investors: could they again step in and provide an offset to the “cautious” stance of institutional investors? Unlikely: according to JPM, when looking through the volatility of weekly equity ETF flows, the big picture is that following an interruption in February, retail investors have resumed their equity ETF buying in March. However as we noted up top, March’s buying pace is not only increasingly extreme in both directions, but also “looks too weak to propel the equity market, especially compared to previous months before the February correction” according to JPM.

    As such, with both institutions and retail investors out, and corporate bond yields jumping making buybacks increasingly expensive, suddenly the question of who will buy as everyone else sells has no satisfactory answer.

    To summarize, JPM is becoming increasingly worried that “the stubbornly cautious stance by institutional investors is emerging as an important headwind for equity markets in the near term”, and what’s worse, should the S&P drop another 1-2%, and take out not only the 200DMA but also the early Feb lows, it looks virtually certain that institutions, which refused to liquidate during the vol explosion last month, will not show similar patience this time around.

  • The West's "Guilty Until Proven Innocent" Mantra Is Wrecking Lives & International Relations

    Authored by Robert Bridge, op-ed via RT.com,

    Western society is flirting with a disturbing trend where people are being denied the time-honored ‘presumption of innocence’. The same undemocratic method is even being used against nations in what is becoming a dangerous game.

    Imagine the following scenario: You are a star football player at the local high school, with a number of college teams hoping to recruit you. There is even talk of a NFL career down the road. Then, overnight, your life takes an unexpected turn for the worse. The police show up at your house with a warrant for your arrest; the charges: kidnapping and rape. The only evidence is your word against the accuser’s. After spending six years behind bars, the court decides you were wrongly accused.

    That is the incredible story of Brian Banks, 26, who was released early from prison in 2012 after his accuser, Wanetta Gibson, admitted that she had fabricated injurious claims against the young man.

    Many other innocent people, however, who have been falsely accused in the West for some crime they did not commit, are not as fortunate as Brian Banks. Just this week, for example, Ross Bullock was released from his private “hell” – and not due to an accuser with a guilty conscience, but by committing suicide.

    “After a ‘year of torment’… Bullock hanged himself in the garage of the family home, leaving a note revealing he had ‘hit rock bottom’ and that with his death ‘I’m free from this living hell,’” the Daily Mail reported.

    There is a temptation to explain away such tragic cases as isolated anomalies in an otherwise sound-functioning legal system. After all, mistakes are going to happen regardless of the safeguards. At the same time, however, there is an irresistible urge among humans to believe those people who claim to have been victimized – even when the evidence suggests otherwise. Perhaps this is due to the powerful emotional element that works to galvanize the victim’s story. Or it could be due to the belief that nobody would intentionally and unjustly condemn another human being. But who can really say what is inside another person’s heart? Moreover, it can’t be denied that every time we attempt to hunt down and punish another people, tribe, sex, religion, etc. for some alleged crimes against victims, there is a real tendency among Westerners to get carried away with moralistic zeal to the point of fanaticism.

    A case in point is last year’s scandal that rocked the entertainment industry as the movie mogul Harvey Weinstein was accused of sexually assaulting numerous women over the span of a 30-year career. Eventually, over 80 females, emboldened by the courage displayed by their peers, drove Weinstein straight out of Hollywood and into the rogue’s gallery of sexual predators. Few could deny this was a positive thing.

    But then something strange began to happen that has been dubbed the ‘Weinstein effect.’ Powered by the social media #MeToo movement, women from all walks of life began to publicly accuse men for all sorts of sexual violations, some from decades ago. Certainly, many of the claims were legitimate. However, in many cases they were not. Yet the mainstream media, which has taken great delight in providing breathless details of every new accusation, has shown little interest in pursuing those stories of men who went on to suffer divorce, ruined reputations, and the loss of jobs without so much as a fair hearing in a court of law. 

    As far as the mainstream media is concerned, and to be fair they don’t seem that concerned, the victim’s story is the only story that matters. Indeed, it was almost as if the victim had become judge, jury and executioner. This is, in reality, just one step from mob rule, and woe to anyone who questions the motives of the movement, as French star Catherine Deneuve discovered.

    The (female) writer, D.C. McAllister, described the poisonous “environment of suspicion” that has beset relations between men and women.

    “While women’s willingness to hold men accountable for criminal sexual behavior is to be applauded, the scorched-earth approach we are seeing today is destructive because it undermines trust,” McAllister wrote in The Federalist.

    “When anything from a naive touch during a photo shoot to an innocent attempt at a kiss is compared to rape and sexual abuse, we are not healing society but infecting relationships with the poison of distrust.”

    In other words, neither men nor women have gained anything from this otherwise-well-intended campaign against sexual improprieties. However, this is not the first time the West has allowed raw emotions to knock the train of progress right off the tracks. History books are replete with examples of Western campaigns rising out of sheer mass hysteria. But at least in those wild times there was still some semblance of justice, complete with trials and investigations. Now compare that with our ‘modern’ times, when all it took for the United States to win approval for an illicit attack on Iraq was for Colin Powell to shake a vial of faux anthrax in front of the UN General Assembly.

    With these historical hiccups in mind, it is possible to argue that the West has truly forgotten the lessons of history because they are certainly repeating them today.

    By way of example, consider where the great bulk of US troops are encamped today – in and around the Middle East – and then ask yourself how they got there.

    The answer is by hook and by crook, and not a little public manipulation and chicanery. That is because, in our insatiable desire to defend victims – the good guys, we are told – we are allowing ourselves to ignore crucial evidence while placing blind faith in what we are being told is the truth. Clearly that has not been the case to date.

    From the accusations that Iraq was harboring weapons of mass destruction to launch against innocent people, to the current claims that the Syrian government of Bashar Assad is using chemical weapons against his own people, the West is gambling that claims based on zero evidence will always work to fulfill ulterior motives. So far, the ploy seems to be working with the gullible public, but sooner or later truth will catch up, indeed, as truth usually does.

    Just this month, for example, an assassination attempt was made against Sergei Skripal – a former double agent who had moved to Salisbury, England following a spy-swap in 2010. Any guesses as to who the British authorities have ruled – without a trial, evidence or motivating factor – is the main culprit? Yes, Russia. Yet, even the usually loyal British press has started expressing reservations over the dubious claims.

    This should come as no surprise since the UK, a member of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), has staunchly refused to provide samples of the alleged nerve agent to Russia for analysis. Why would it do that? Would anyone be surprised if this investigation goes the same way it did for all those Russian athletes who were, unjustly, banned from the Winter Olympic Games this year? 

    Or perhaps the same way it went following the 2016 US presidential elections, when Russia was accused of meddling on behalf of Donald Trump – zero evidence to back up the slanderous accusations, which are responsible for putting US-Russia relations into a free fall.

    In conclusion, the unsightly spectacle of Western capitals backtracking on legal precedent – from domestic cases to international – makes it all the more clear why it is so anxious to win back the media mountaintops – it has no evidence whatsoever to support the reasons behind its increasingly illicit behavior. It is therefore incumbent upon them to own the narrative, as well as the justice system. How long this democratic charade can last is anybody’s guess.

  • "The Obama People Better Start Packing Their Shit" – John Bolton Expected To "Clean House" At The NSC

    The cautious and considered HR McMaster is leaving the White House to be replaced by one of the most polarizing, irascible figures operating in contemporary national security circles: Former UN Ambassador John Bolton.

    Bolton, who recently penned an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal arguing that a preemptive strike against North Korea would be both legal AND desirable, is widely believed to be one of the most interventionist figures to ever hold a senior position in the US government. Case in point: Before 9/11, Bolton helped found a group calling for the unilateral overthrow of Saddam Hussein. Rand Paul declared that Trump was wrong to trust someone who is “unhinged as far as believing in absolute and total intervention.”

    Bolton

    So it should hardly come as a surprise that Bolton plans to shake up the National Security Council staff when he arrives in the West Wing.  Foreign Policy reports that Bolton, Trump’s third NSA in 15 months, is preparing to begin firing staff and replacing them with his own allies, as well as a few allies of former NSA Michael Flynn, who share Bolton’s hawkish views.

    As one might expect, the Obama holdovers and McMaster loyalists will be the first to go. But they won’t be the only ones: Those targeted for removal include officials believed to have been disloyal to President Donald Trump – especially those who have leaked about the president to the media.

    “Bolton can and will clean house,” one former White House official said.

    Another source said “He is going to remove almost all the political [appointees] McMaster brought in.”

    A second former White House official offered a blunt assessment of former Obama officials currently detailed or appointed to the NSC: “Everyone who was there during Obama years should start packing their shit.”

    The circumstances surrounding McMaster’s departure will only embolden his successor to make sweeping changes. As FP reports, McMaster was reportedly planning to hang on for a few more months, but a recent leak about Trump’s decision to congratulate Russian President Vladimir Putin.

    McMaster’s departure may have been hastened by leaks emanating from the White House. Two sources familiar with the matter said McMaster was going to stay on until early summer.

    But when the Washington Post reported this week that Trump had congratulated Putin in a phone call on his fraudulent election win — after receiving written briefing materials from the NSC instructing him not to congratulate Putin — the president reacted furiously and blamed McMaster. The story caused Trump to speed up McMaster’s departure, the sources said.

    Bolton is already in talks with certain longtime advisors and is likely preparing to offer several of them jobs in the West Wing. One such advisor is Matthew Freedman, a Republican consultant who previously advised Bolton at the State Department and the United Nations.  Freedman and many other Bolton allies are pushing the incoming national security advisor to make sweeping changes (changes that will, of course, benefit them).

    On Thursday evening, just hours after Trump tapped him for the job, Bolton held a call with longtime advisors, including Matthew Freedman, a Republican consultant who once advised Bolton at the State Department and the United Nations. Freedman is currently helping manage the transition, according to a source familiar with the call.

    “Freedman is a very political guy that Bolton likes,” one Republican source said. “He is overly ambitious about cleaning house.”

    Freedman disputed that account, saying he was not aware of the Thursday phone call. “I can tell you there is no list,” he said.

    Another source close to Bolton said it was premature to be talking about personnel changes.

    While Trump might object to Bolton’s mustache (the president has a distaste for men with facial hair), the two at least see eye to eye on policy issues. In a way, Bolton could be considered a “proto-Trumpian” figure due to his criticism of the United Nations and the European Union – positions that Trump has also embraced. 

    Bolton’s friends believe this closeness will allow Bolton to make swift changes at the White House. Indeed, Bolton’s allies already have two names that should be at the top of Bolton’s list of staff to fire: Deputy NSA Nadia Schadlow and former McMaster deputy Ricky Waddell.

    Among the officials Bolton’s allies are urging him to fire is Nadia Schadlow, currently the deputy national security advisor for strategy. Schadlow was the primary author of the administration’s recently released National Security Strategy, which was viewed as a surprisingly mainstream document that reaffirmed many traditional U.S. foreign-policy positions. Another official likely to be targeted in a Bolton purge is McMaster’s deputy, Ricky Waddell.

    It wouldn’t be the first purge to follow a change in Trump’s national security advisor. When Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster replaced retired Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn in the job last year, McMaster systematically eliminated officials seen as loyal to his predecessor. According to four sources close to the White House, those so-called “Flynnstones” – advisors loyal to Flynn – are believed to be plotting their return to the NSC.

    Whether Bolton will sign off on the staff purge his allies and advisors are pushing is less clear, though he has been insistent about ousting so-called Obama holdovers. “You could easily say that people close to Bolton want these people to go,” one source said. Other sources stress that Bolton, a veteran bureaucratic infighter, makes his own decisions.

    A source close to Bolton cautioned that any staffing changes would take time, given the need to process security clearances. That means Bolton will likely be stuck with his current staff for the May summit meeting between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

    Trump and Bolton have reportedly discussed staffing changes since at least last July, when Bolton was offered the job as McMaster’s deputy – a position currently held by Waddell. Trump told Bolton that the deputy job would lead to the top post, but Bolton declined, saying he’d rather wait until he was offered the national security advisor job.

    However, there are two factors that Bolton’s allies believe could make life difficult for the former ambassador to the UN.

    One is his hawkishness toward Russia – which puts him at odds with Trump (though Trump, who is planning to expel dozens of Russian diplomats over the Skripal incident).

    Another is whether he manages to get along with Chief of Staff John Kelly – very much a supporter of the establishment view of American foreign policy. Bolton also has Trump’s ear, which could lead to tensions between the two men. Since he arrived in the West Wing, Kelly has proven incredibly effective at keeping his job, and has helped dispatch many West Wing rivals.

    Bolton will need to tread carefully if he wants to outlast his two predecessors.

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Today’s News 24th March 2018

  • Tolerance Cuts Both Ways: Freedom For The Speech We Hate

    Authored by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    Tolerance cuts both ways.

    This isn’t an easy pill to swallow, I know, but that’s the way free speech works, especially when it comes to tolerating speech that we hate.

    The most controversial issues of our day – gay rights, abortion, race, religion, sexuality, political correctness, police brutality, et al. – have become battlegrounds for those who claim to believe in freedom of speech but only when it favors the views and positions they support.

    Free speech for me but not for thee is how my good friend and free speech purist Nat Hentoff used to sum up this double standard.

    This haphazard approach to the First Amendment has so muddied the waters that even First Amendment scholars are finding it hard to navigate at times.

    It’s really not that hard.

    The First Amendment affirms the right of the people to speak freely, worship freely, peaceably assemble, petition the government for a redress of grievances, and have a free press.

    Nowhere in the First Amendment does it permit the government to limit speech in order to avoid causing offense, hurting someone’s feelings, safeguarding government secrets, protecting government officials, insulating judges from undue influence, discouraging bullying, penalizing hateful ideas and actions, eliminating terrorism, combatting prejudice and intolerance, and the like.

    Unfortunately, in the war being waged between free speech purists who believe that free speech is an inalienable right and those who believe that free speech is a mere privilege to be granted only under certain conditions, the censors are winning.

    We have entered into an egotistical, insulated, narcissistic era in which free speech has become regulated speech: to be celebrated when it reflects the values of the majority and tolerated otherwise, unless it moves so far beyond our political, religious and socio-economic comfort zones as to be rendered dangerous and unacceptable.

    Indeed, President Trump – who has been accused of using his very public platform to belittle and mock his critics and enemies while attempting to muzzle those who might speak out against him – may be the perfect poster child for this age of intolerance.

    Even so, Trump is not to blame for America’s growing intolerance for free speech.

    The country started down that sorry road long ago.

    Protest laws, free speech zones, bubble zones, trespass zones, anti-bullying legislation, zero tolerance policies, hate crime laws and a host of other legalistic maladies dreamed up by politicians and prosecutors (and championed by those who want to suppress speech with which they might disagree) have conspired to corrode our core freedoms, purportedly for our own good.

    On paper – at least according to the U.S. Constitution – we are technically free to speak.

    In reality, however, we are only as free to speak as a government official – or corporate entities such as Facebook, Google or YouTube – may allow.

    Free speech is no longer free.

    What we have instead is regulated, controlled speech, and that’s a whole other ballgame.

    Just as surveillance has been shown to “stifle and smother dissent, keeping a populace cowed by fear,” government censorship gives rise to self-censorship, breeds compliance, makes independent thought all but impossible, and ultimately foments a seething discontent that has no outlet but violence.

    The First Amendment is a steam valve. It allows people to speak their minds, air their grievances and contribute to a larger dialogue that hopefully results in a more just world.

    When there is no steam valve – when there is no one to hear what the people have to say – frustration builds, anger grows and people become more volatile and desperate to force a conversation. By bottling up dissent, we have created a pressure cooker of stifled misery and discontent that is now bubbling over and fomenting even more hate, distrust and paranoia among portions of the populace.

    Silencing unpopular viewpoints with which the majority might disagree – whether it’s by shouting them down, censoring them, muzzling them, or criminalizing them – only empowers the controllers of the Deep State.

    Even when the motives behind this rigidly calibrated reorientation of societal language appear well-intentioned – discouraging racism, condemning violence, denouncing discrimination and hatred – inevitably, the end result is the same: intolerance, indoctrination and infantilism.

    The police state could not ask for a better citizenry than one that carries out its own censorship, spying and policing.

    This is how you turn a nation of free people into extensions of the omniscient, omnipotent, omnipresent police state, and in the process turn a citizenry against each other.

    So where do we go from here?

    If Americans don’t learn how to get along – at the very least, agreeing to disagree and respecting each other’s right to subscribe to beliefs and opinions that may be offensive, hateful, intolerant or merely different – then we’re going to soon find that we have no rights whatsoever (to speak, assemble, agree, disagree, protest, opt in, opt out, or forge our own paths as individuals).

    The government will lock down the nation at the slightest provocation.

    Indeed, the government has been anticipating and preparing for civil unrest for years now, as evidenced by the build-up of guns and tanks and militarized police and military training drills and threat assessments and extremism reports and surveillance systems and private prisons and Pentagon training videos predicting the need to impose martial law by 2030.

    Trust me: when the police state cracks down, it will not discriminate.

    We’ll all be muzzled together.

    We’ll all be jailed together.

    We’ll all be viewed as a collective enemy to be catalogued, conquered and caged.

    Indeed, a recent survey concluded that a large bipartisan majority of the American public already recognizes the dangersposed by a government that is not only tracking its citizens but is also being controlled by a “Deep State” of unelected government officials.

    Thus, the last thing we need to do is play into the government’s hands by turning on one another, turning in one another, and giving the government’s standing army an excuse to take over.

    So let’s start with a little more patience, a lot more tolerance and a civics lesson on the First Amendment.

    What this means is opening the door to more speech not less, even if that speech is offensive to some.

    It’s time to start thinking for ourselves again.

    It’s time to start talking to each other, listening more and shouting less.

    Most of all, as I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, it’s time to make the government hear us—see us—and heed us.

    This is the ultimate power of free speech.

  • Visualizing The Rising Problem Of Crypto Theft (And How To Protect Yourself)

    Part of the appeal of cryptocurrency is that it exists “outside” of the system.

    Using complex cryptography and decentralized ledgers, Visual Capitalist’s Jeff Desjardins explains, a blockchain can operate independently from the world’s most powerful countries, corporations, and banking institutions.

    While this detachment from authority is extremely powerful, existing almost exclusively in the digital realm does have its drawbacks.

    PREVENTING CRYPTO THEFT

    Today’s infographic from CryptoGo shows that as cryptocurrencies rise in prominence, so does its appeal to hackers, criminals, and other bad actors.

    With millions of dollars being stolen via crypto theft, investors and other dabblers in cryptocurrency must take precautions to protect their assets for the long haul.

    Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

    Crypto theft comes in many different forms, and at least $225 million of cryptocurrency has been stolen as of mid-2017.

    There are various forms of crypto theft that have made this possible, including brute forcing, phishing, phone-porting, mining malware, and Ponzi schemes.

    STRATEGIES USED BY CRYPTO THIEVES

    Here are the most prominent forms of crypto theft:

    Brute Forcing

    This is the form of hacking that most are familiar with. It involves automated software that simply tries different passwords until one works.

    Phone-Porting

    Using your phone number and a little “social engineering”, a hacker can convince a customer service rep that they are actually you. This allows them to reset your password and access your funds.

    Phishing

    In this case, a hacker will send you suspicious links through email or social media messages. By clicking on one of those links, malware is installed.

    Ponzi Schemes

    Multi-level marketing schemes that provide signing bonuses. These eventually collapse when prices change or signups stop. Once over, the thieves takes the money and run.

    Mining Malware

    Hackers hijack a computer’s power to mine cryptocurrency remotely.

    Protecting Yourself

    Crypto theft can be prevented by taking appropriate precautionary measures.

    These include using encrypted backups to hold private keys and other data, using proper anti-virus software for crypto, and opting for multi-factor authentication.

    Further, other general measures can also be taken to protect assets, such as holding only small amounts of cryptocurrency in hot wallets, using safety deposit boxes to store USB and private paper keys, turning off SMS authentication and email recovery options, and diversifying holdings through various exchanges.

  • US Doubles Down As Empire Declines

    Authored by Kevin Zeese and Margaret Flowers via DissidentVoice.org,

    US empire is in decline. Reports of the end of the US being the unitary power in world affairs are common, as are predictions of the end of US empire. China surpassed the United States as the world economic leader according to Purchasing Power Parity Gross National Product, and Russia announced new weapons that can overcome the US’ defense systems.

    What is happening in the United States, in response, is to do more of what has been causing the decline. As the Pentagon outlined in its post-primacy report, the US’ plan is more money, more aggression and more surveillance. Congress voted nearly unanimously to give the Pentagon tens of billions more than it requested. Military spending will now consume 57% of federal discretionary spending, leaving less for basic necessities. The Trump administration’s new nominees to the State Department and CIA are a war hawk and a torturer. And the Democrat’s “Blue Wave” is composed of security state candidates.

    The US is escalating an arms race with Russia and China. This may create the mirror image of President Reagan forcing Russia to spend so much on its military that it aided in the break-up of the Soviet Union. The US economy cannot handle more military spending, worsening austerity when most people in the US are in financial distress.

    This is an urgent situation for all people in the world. In the US, we carry an extra burden as citizens of empire to do what we can to oppose US imperialism. We must be clear that it is time to end wars and other tools of regime change, to become a cooperative member of the world community and to prioritize the needs of people and protection of the planet.

    There are a number of opportunities to mobilize against US empire: the April 14-15 days of action, the Women’s March on the Pentagon in October and the mass protest planned against the military parade in November.

    Turmoil in Foreign Policy Leadership

    This week, President Trump fired Secretary of State Tillerson, nominated CIA director Mike Pompeo for the State Department and chose Gina Haspel to replace Pompeo at the CIA. As we write this newsletter, National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster is on the verge of being fired [since been fired and replaced by uber-hawk John Bolton]. The deck chairs are being rearranged on the Titanic but this will not correct the course of a failing foreign policy.

    The Pompeo and Haspel nominations are controversial. Pompeo believes torturers are patriots. He is a war hawk on every conflict and competing country, including Russia and especially Iran. And, unlike Tillerson, who stood up to Trump on occasion, Pompeo kisses-up to Trump, defending his every move. Haspel led a CIA black site torture center and ordered destruction of evidence to obstruct torture investigations.

    The Democrat’s record on torture is not good. President Obama said he would not prosecute Bush era torturers, infamously saying, “we need to look forwards as opposed to looking backwards.” John Brennan who was complicit in Bush-era torture, withdrew under pressure from becoming CIA director in 2008, instead becoming Deputy National Security Adviser, which did not require confirmation. After Obama’s re-election, Brennan became Obama’s CIA director.

    Brennan was inconsistent on whether torture worked. He tried to elevate Haspel, but the controversy around her prevented it. When the CIA spied on the US Senate Intelligence committee over their torture report, Brennan originally lied, denying the spying, but was later forced to admit it. He was not held accountable by either the Democrats or Obama.

    Haspel headed a black site in Thailand where torture was carried out. She ordered the destruction of 92 secret tapes documenting torture even thoughthe Senate Judiciary requested the tapes, as had a federal judge in a criminal trial. According to a federal court order, the tapes should have been turned over to comply with a FOIA request. Counsel for the White House and CIAsaid the tapes should have been preserved. Haspel’s actions should lead to prosecution, not to a promotion as head of the agency, as CIA whistleblower John Kiriakou, who exposed torture and served time in prison for it, reminds us.

    The Trump nominations leave the Democrats on the cusp of a complete surrender on torture in an election year. Caving on torture by approving Pompeo and Haspel will anger Democratic voters and risk the high turnout need for their anticipated 2018 “Blue Wave”.

    Republican Senator Rand Paul says he will oppose both nominees. If all the Democrats oppose, the Senate will be split 50-50, requiring one more Republican to block the nominees. Fifteen Democrats supported Pompeo’s nomination as CIA director, so Democratic opposition is not ensured. Will Democrats oppose torture or be complicit in normalizing torture?

    Democrat’s Security State Blue Wave

    Militarism and war are bi-partisan. When Trump submitted a military budget, the Democrats almost unanimously joined with the Republicans to increase the budget by tens of billions of dollars. But, that is not all, a series of investigative reports by the World Socialist website reported the Democratic Party is becoming the party of military and intelligence candidates.

    The series identifies more than 50 military-intelligence candidates seeking the Democratic nomination in 102 districts identified by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee as targets for 2018. The result, as many as half of all new congressional Democrats could come from the national security apparatus. An example is the victory in Pennsylvania by Conor Lamb, an anti-abortion, pro-gun, pro-drug war, ex-Marine, which is being celebrated by Democrats.

    The Sanders-Democrats, working to make the Democratic Party a progressive people’s party, are being outflanked by the military-intelligence apparatus. In the end, Democratic Party leadership cares more about numbers than candidate’s policy positions.

    Patrick Martin writes:

    If on November 6 the Democratic Party makes the net gain of 24 seats needed to win control of the House of Representatives, former CIA agents, military commanders, and State Department officials will provide the margin of victory and hold the balance of power in Congress. The presence of so many representatives of the military-intelligence apparatus in the legislature is a situation without precedent in the history of the United States.

    Just as Freedom Caucus Tea Party representatives hold power in the Republican Party, the military-intelligence officials will become the powerhouse for Democrats. This takeover will make the Democrats even more militarist at a dangerous time when threats of war are on the rise and the country needs an opposition party that says ‘no’ to war.

    What does this mean? Kim Dotcom might be right when he tweeted, “The Deep State no longer wants to rely on unreliable puppets. They want to run politics directly now.” What does it mean politically? There is no two-party system on militarism and war. Those who oppose war are not represented and must build a political culture to oppose war at home and abroad.

    US Foreign Policy Elites in Denial About Russia’s New Weapons

    There is dangerous denial among US foreign policy elites about the Russian weapons systems announced by Putin in his state of the union speech last week. Military-intelligence analyst the Saker compares the US’ reaction to the five stages of grief: denial, anger, bargaining, depression, acceptance. US elites are in the first two stages.

    The US does not have an adequate defense to the weapons announced by Putin. As the Saker writes, “Not only does that mean that the entire ABM [Anti-Ballistic Missile] effort of the USA is now void and useless, but also that from now US aircraft carrier battle groups can only be used against small, defenseless, nations!” US leadership cannot believe that after spending trillions of dollars, Russia has outsmarted their military with ten percent of their budget.

    Former Secretary of Defense William Perry exemplifies this denial, claiming Putin’s weapons are “phony,” exaggerated and do not really exist. Then he blames the Russians for starting an arms race. Of course, in both the National Security Strategy and Nuclear Posture Review, published before the Putin speech, the US announced an arms race.

    US political and military leadership brought this on themselves. The US’ leaving the SALT treaty in 2002 and expanding NATO to cover the Russian border led to Russia’s development of these new weapons.

    Further, Obama, and now Trump, support spending more than a trillion dollars to upgrade nuclear weapons. Perry falsifies history and blames Russia rather than looking in the mirror, since he was defense secretary during this era of errors.

    The new Russian weapons systems do not have to lead to an unaffordable arms race. The US should re-evaluate its strategy and find a diplomatic path to a multi-polar world where the US does not waste money on militarism. We can divest from the military economy and convert it to civilian economic investment, as the US has many needs for infrastructure, energy transition, health care, education and more.

    US global dominance is coming to an end. The issue is how will it end? Will the US hang on with an arms race and never-ending wars, or it will it wind down US empire in a sensible way. The Saker writes:

    The Russian end-goal is simple and obvious: to achieve a gradual and peaceful disintegration of the AngloZionist Empire combined with a gradual and peaceful replacement of a unipolar world ruled by one hegemon, by a multipolar world jointly administered by sovereign nations respectful of international law. Therefore, any catastrophic or violent outcomes are highly undesirable and must be avoided if at all possible. Patience and focus will be far more important in this war for the future of our planet than quick-fix reactions and hype. The ‘patient’ needs to be returned to reality one step at a time. Putin’s March 1st speech will go down in history as such a step, but many more such steps will be needed before the patient finally wakes up.

    As of now, the Pentagon and US leadership are in denial and not ready to face reality. The people of the United States, in solidarity with people of the world, must act now to end the war culture and convince US leadership that a new path is necessary.

  • Atlanta City Government Hit With Crippling Ransomware Attack

    In an unprecedented attack on the IT systems of a major municipal government, hackers are demanding ransom payable in bitcoin after seizing control of computers belonging to the Atlanta city government, AFP reports.

    The ransomware assault shut down multiple internal and external applications for the city, including apps that people use to pay bills and access court-related information, Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms told a news conference Thursday.

    The attack also impacted the city’s emergency-response services – forcing dispatchers answering 911 calls to take down reports with a paper and pen

    “This is a very serious situation,” Bottoms said.

    City officials said they learned of the attack before dawn Thursday when they detected unusual activity on their servers and discovered that some of the city’s data had been encrypted without their consent.

    Shortly after, the city government received a ransom note giving instructions for paying to free up files encrypted by the hackers.

    Atlanta

    The hackers – perhaps having learned from the relatively small take received during previous ransomware attacks like last year’s infamous “WannaCry” global assault – are demanding the city pay a relatively modest ransom: Six bitcoins – or about $51,000.

    Newsweek reports that a note provided to city officials included step-by-step instructions on how to pay. It linked to a website URL hosted on the dark web. But at a press conference led by Bottoms, officials told the public they are still assessing the extent of the attack.

    “The City of Atlanta has experienced a ransomware cyberattack,” confirmed chief operating officer Richard Cobbs during the briefing. This attack has encrypted some of the city data, however we are still validating the extent of the compromise.”

    A statement released to the public read: “The City of Atlanta is currently experiencing outages on various internal and customer facing applications, including some applications that customers use to pay bills or access court-related information.”

    “At this time, our Atlanta Information Management team is working diligently with support from Microsoft to resolve the issue,” it added. “We are confident that our team of technology professionals will be able to restore applications soon.”

    Bottoms demurred when asked whether the city is contemplating paying the ransom.

    On the option of paying the ransom, Bottoms said: “We can’t speak to that right now, we will be looking for guidance specifically from our federal partners on how best to navigate the best course of action. Right now, we are focused on fixing the issue.”

    “The explanation is simple, we don’t know the extent. I would ask that people assume you may be included if personal data has been breached. We don’t know if it’s information related to just our employees or if it’s more extensive than that. Because we don’t know, I think it would be appropriate for the public to be vigilant checking their accounts and making sure credit agencies can also be notified.”

    The FBI warned in 2016 that victims of ransomware attacks should refrain from paying ransoms, explaining that it would not guarantee that their data would be released, and, furthermore, would only embolden criminals.

    That attack hit more than 200,000 companies, hospitals, government agencies and other organizations in 150 countries, but most of the victims opted to let their data be erased rather than pay the ransom.

    The FBI and Department of Homeland Security are investigating.

    WannaCry, Petya and other major ransomware attacks were carried out using NSA cyberweapons that were stolen by a group called the Shadowbrokers, who’ve been selling a cache of NSA weapons to whoever is willing to buy them – even launching a subscription service last year. It’s unclear what type of ransomware is being used in the Atlanta attack.

  • "Just A Few More Pips" – Watch The Hong Kong Dollar!

    Authored by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners,

    On Page 1, Chapter 1 of the Central Banker Crisis Handbook it states very clearly, “do not make it worse.” It’s something like the Hippocratic oath where monetary authorities must first assess what their actions might do to an already fragile system. It’s why they take great pains to try and maintain composure, appearing calm and orderly while conflagration rages all around. The last thing you want to do is confirm the run.

    In modern times, that’s been taken to extremes where officials just outright lie – nothing to see here.

    Inflation hysteria has subsided to a considerable degree, thankfully. Going back to January 26 or so, markets aren’t quite as ready to embrace the lie as they were through all of last year. People are now paying attention to LIBOR-OIS when all they needed was the HKMA.

    Less than two weeks ago, on March 8, Norman Chan, CEO of Hong Kong’s monetary authority, issued a statement. It was the usual stuff about how HK has built up an enormous reserve buffer able to withstand any convertibility issues (how’d that work out in China with their much larger pile of forex?) Further, Chan says that HKD’s vomit-inducing drop is as much a good thing as any other kind of thing.

    The world is getting so much better, he wrote, so HKD’s outflows are merely restoration of normality. So far so good. Many people will buy that because the logical fallacy of appeal to authority is often unquestioned. Central bankers, we are conditioned to believe, know their stuff.

    But he titled his message:

    Stay calm on the weakening of the Hong Kong dollar

    D’oh. Today it’s 7.848, and just a few more pips to obligated intervention, perhaps as soon as Monday, maybe even tomorrow (though I suspect they’ve been in the market already).

    The more interesting part is CNY, or how it’s correlation (inverse) with HKD has now definitively broken (nearly two months). Whether it has permanently will be determined, I believe, by what happens at the 7.85 trigger. As I write for tomorrow:

    You didn’t really need LIBOR-OIS to suggest global dollar conditions are escalating the wrong way.

    There was repo and collateral (including gold) in September..

    Cross currency basis in December…

    Stock market liquidations sweeping across the globe in January…

    And now this.

    The one common trend through all of that was HKD.

    Why aren’t HKD traders remaining calm?

    For one, HKMA has never been here before. They quite literally don’t know what they are doing.

     

  • Drudge, Coulter Trash Trump Over "Fake Veto" As Base Rages

    Matt Drudge and Ann Coulter took to Twitter on Friday after President Trump “begrudgingly” signed the $1.3 trillion omnibus spending package – after threatening to veto it hours earlier over the “800,000 DACA recipients” which Trump said were “totally abandoned by the Democrats,” and the lack of funding for the “BORDER WALL.” 

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    Trump spent around 30 minutes on Friday doing his best to convince his base that, gosh dangit, he was “forced” to sign the bill in order to fully fund the military.

    In response to Trump bemoaning the legislation, claiming “I will never sign a bill like this again,” pundit and author Ann Coulter – a harsh critic of Trump whenever he strays from campaign promises, tweeted “Yeah, because you’ll be impeached.” 

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    Coulter then tweeted “CONGRATULATIONS, PRESIDENT SCHUMER!” 

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    Of note, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY) declared the spending bill rushed through by Republicans a “victory.” 

    “The distinguished leader has clearly put forth many of the priorities that we’re very proud of in a bill that’s one yard high,” said Pelosi of House Speaker Paul Ryan at a joint press conference on Thursday. 

    “It’s one yard high,” Pelosi exclaimed – referring to the literal height of the legislation. “About half of it is the bill, a quarter of it is earmarks, and another quarter are report language.”

    Matt Drudge, meanwhile, loved his site The Drudge Report‘s headline “Fake Veto” so much that he tweeted out a screenshot! “Fake Veto,” of course, is a mockery of Trump’s co-opted catch phrase “Fake News” following Trump’s earlier tweet pretending to be on the fence. 

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    Other reactions around the twittersphere have echoed feelings of defeat: 

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    Translation; Trump got steamrolled and the base is furious.

    Meanwhile, here are the 25 House Republicans who opposed the bill:

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  • Paul Ehrlich: "Collapse Of Civilisation Is A Near Certainty Within Decades"

    Authored by Damian Carrington via The Guardian,

    Fifty years after the publication of his controversial book The Population Bomb, biologist Paul Ehrlich warns overpopulation and overconsumption are driving us over the edge…

    A shattering collapse of civilisation is a “near certainty” in the next few decades due to humanity’s continuing destruction of the natural world that sustains all life on Earth, according to biologist Prof Paul Ehrlich.

    In May, it will be 50 years since the eminent biologist published his most famous and controversial book, The Population Bomb. But Ehrlich remains as outspoken as ever.

    Prof Paul Ehrlich of Stanford University. Photograph: Alamy Stock Photo

    The world’s optimum population is less than two billion people – 5.6 billion fewer than on the planet today, he argues, and there is an increasing toxification of the entire planet by synthetic chemicals that may be more dangerous to people and wildlife than climate change.

    Ehrlich also says an unprecedented redistribution of wealth is needed to end the over-consumption of resources, but “the rich who now run the global system – that hold the annual ‘world destroyer’ meetings in Davos – are unlikely to let it happen”.

    The Population Bomb, written with his wife Anne Ehrlich in 1968, predicted “hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death” in the 1970s – a fate that was avoided by the green revolution in intensive agriculture.

    Many details and timings of events were wrong, Paul Ehrlich acknowledges today, but he says the book was correct overall.

    “Population growth, along with over-consumption per capita, is driving civilisation over the edge: billions of people are now hungry or micronutrient malnourished, and climate disruption is killing people.”

    Ehrlich has been at Stanford University since 1959 and is also president of the Millennium Alliance for Humanity and the Biosphere, which works “to reduce the threat of a shattering collapse of civilisation”.

    “It is a near certainty in the next few decades, and the risk is increasing continually as long as perpetual growth of the human enterprise remains the goal of economic and political systems,” he says. “As I’ve said many times, ‘perpetual growth is the creed of the cancer cell’.”

    It is the combination of high population and high consumption by the rich that is destroying the natural world, he says. Research published by Ehrlich and colleagues in 2017 concluded that this is driving a sixth mass extinction of biodiversity, upon which civilisation depends for clean air, water and food.

    High consumption by the rich is destroying the natural world, says Ehrlich. Photograph: Paulo Whitaker/Reuters

    The solutions are tough, he says.

    “To start, make modern contraception and back-up abortion available to all and give women full equal rights, pay and opportunities with men.

    “I hope that would lead to a low enough total fertility rate that the needed shrinkage of population would follow. [But] it will take a very long time to humanely reduce total population to a size that is sustainable.”

    He estimates an optimum global population size at roughly 1.5 to two billion,

    But the longer humanity pursues business as usual, the smaller the sustainable society is likely to prove to be. We’re continuously harvesting the low-hanging fruit, for example by driving fisheries stocks to extinction.”

    Ehrlich is also concerned about chemical pollution, which has already reached the most remote corners of the globe.

    “The evidence we have is that toxics reduce the intelligence of children, and members of the first heavily influenced generation are now adults.”

    He treats this risk with characteristic dark humour:

    “The first empirical evidence we are dumbing down Homo sapiens were the Republican debates in the US 2016 presidential elections – and the resultant kakistocracy. On the other hand, toxification may solve the population problem, since sperm counts are plunging.”

    Plastic pollution found in the most remote places on the planet show nowhere is safe from human impact. Photograph: Conor McDonnell

    Reflecting five decades after the publication of The Population Bomb (which he wanted to be titled Population, Resources, and Environment), he says: “No scientist would hold exactly the same views after a half century of further experience, but Anne and I are still proud of our book.” It helped start a worldwide debate on the impact of rising population that continues today, he says.

    The book’s strength, Ehrlich says, is that it was short, direct and basically correct. “Its weaknesses were not enough on overconsumption and equity issues. It needed more on women’s rights, and explicit countering of racism – which I’ve spent much of my career and activism trying to counter.

    “Too many rich people in the world is a major threat to the human future, and cultural and genetic diversity are great human resources.”

    Accusations that the book lent support to racist attitudes to population controlstill hurt today, Ehrlich says. “Having been a co-inventor of the sit-in to desegregate restaurants in Lawrence, Kansas in the 1950s and having published books and articles on the biological ridiculousness of racism, those accusations continue to annoy me.”

    But, he says: “You can’t let the possibility that ignorant people will interpret your ideas as racist keep you from discussing critical issues honestly.”

    More of Paul and Anne Ehrlich’s reflections on their book are published in The Population Bomb Revisited.

  • Chinese Newspaper: Beijing Should Prepare For War In The Taiwan Straits

    On Thursday, a leading Chinese state-run newspaper announced the unthinkable: Beijing must prepare for “a direct military clash” over self-ruled Taiwan after a mid-level U.S. official arrived in Taipei on Tuesday, angering senior officials in Beijing.

    The atmosphere in Beijing started to get heated when Alex Wong, US deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, arrived in Taipei on Tuesday. Wong became the first senior State Department official of the Trump administration to visit Taiwan since Washington approved the Taiwan Travel Act, which has already roiled ties and brought new pressures to Sino-US relations (refers to international relations between the U.S and China).

    Interesting enough, with trade war tensions escalating between Beijing and Washington, the pivot by the Trump administration over Taiwan has made the situation much worse.

    Local media reports cited Wong as stating the United States’ commitment to Taiwan has never been stronger, and that Washington will get international organizations to strengthen ties with Taipei.

    “Taiwan can no longer be excluded unjustly from international fora. Taiwan has much to share with the world,” Wong said at a reception attended by Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen, a member of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party.

    “I can assure you, the United States government and the United States private sector will do their part to ensure Taiwan’s stellar international example shines brightly,” he added.

    In response, the senior editor of the Global Times declared China had to “strike back” against “Washington’s implementation of the Taiwan Travel Act.”

    “We must strike back against Washington’s implementation of the Taiwan Travel Act. First, Beijing should not invite senior officials of the US Department of State and Defense who visit Taiwan, to the mainland during their terms. For instance, Wong should not be invited to the mainland until he no longer occupies the post. Senior Taiwan officials who visit the US and meet publicly with high-level US officials should be treated alike. This won’t make the mainland suffer diplomatically. After all, Beijing and Washington have various channels to communicate.” 

    The editor then said,

    China can pressure the US in other areas of bilateral cooperation: for example, the Korean Peninsula issue and Iran nuclear issue. China can also set itself against the US in international organizations such as the UN. In addition, China needs to move fast to establish diplomatic ties with allies of Taiwan to further squeeze the island’s space in the international community.”

    At the end of the piece, the editor dropped the mother of all bombshells, “Mainland [China] must prepare itself for a direct military clash in the Taiwan Straits.”

    The mainland must also prepare itself for a direct military clash in the Taiwan Straits. It needs to make clear that escalation of US-Taiwan official exchanges will bring serious consequences to Taiwan. This newspaper has suggested that the mainland can send military planes and warships across the Taiwan Straits middle line. This can be implemented gradually depending on the cross-Straits situation.

    Preventing the Taiwan independence movement and promoting unification through peaceful ways can be costly, perhaps costing more than the short-term loss brought about by forceful unification. It’s a misunderstanding to think that peaceful unification will be a harmonious and happy process. The Taiwan authority will only turn around when left with no choice. Sticks matter more than flowers on the path to peaceful reunification.

    China Uncensored provides us with the knowledge that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has already made the preparations to invade Taiwan by 2020.

    Earlier this week, the New Straits Times reported that China sailed its aircraft carrier through the Taiwan Strait, in response to Wong’s Taipei trip.

    Taiwan said Wednesday it had scrambled jets and sent ships to track a Chinese aircraft carrier which passed through the Taiwan Strait as Beijing’s leader gave the island a fierce warning against separatism. The Liaoning and accompanying vessels entered Taiwan’s air defence zone on Tuesday, the same day Chinese President Xi Jinping delivered a blistering nationalistic speech – warning against what he called any attempts to split China.  

    While the Global Times says China should prepare for military action against Taiwan, it is becoming increasingly obvious that the Trump administration coupled with military–industrial complex is preparing for the next great war in the East. This time around, perhaps, we have gained an important clue that war with China starts with Taiwan.

  • The Digital-Military-Industrial Complex Exposed

    Authored by Tamsin Shaw via NYBooks.com,

    The New Military-Industrial Complex of Big Data Psy-Ops

    Apparently, the age of the old-fashioned spook is in decline.

    What is emerging instead is an obscure world of mysterious boutique companies specializing in data analysis and online influence that contract with government agencies.

    As they say about hedge funds, if the general public has heard their names that’s probably not a good sign. But there is now one data analysis company that anyone who pays attention to the US and UK press has heard of: Cambridge Analytica. Representatives have boasted that their list of past and current clients includes the British Ministry of Defense, the US Department of Defense, the US Department of State, the CIA, the Defense Intelligence Agency, and NATO. Nevertheless, they became recognized for just one influence campaign: the one that helped Donald Trump get elected president of the United States. The kind of help the company offered has since been the subject of much unwelcome legal and journalistic scrutiny.

    Carole Cadwalladr’s recent exposé of the inner workings of Cambridge Analytica shows that the company, along with its partner, SCL Group, should rightly be as a cautionary tale about the part private companies play in developing and deploying government-funded behavioral technologies. Her source, former employee Christopher Wylie, has described the development of influence techniques for psychological warfare by SCL Defense, the refinement of similar techniques by SCL Elections through its use across the developing world (for example, a “rumor campaign” deployed to spread fear during the 2007 election in Nigeria), and the purchase of this cyber-arsenal by Robert Mercer, the American billionaire who funded Cambridge Analytica, and who, with the help of Wylie, Trump campaign manager Steve Bannon, and the company’s chief executive Alexander Nix, deployed it on the American electorate in 2016.

    But the revelations should also prompt us to ask deeper questions about the kind of behavioral science research that enables both governments and private companies to assume these powers.

    Two young psychologists are central to the Cambridge Analytica story. One is Michal Kosinski, who devised an app with a Cambridge University colleague, David Stillwell, that measures personality traits by analyzing Facebook “likes.” It was then used in collaboration with the World Well-Being Project, a group at the University of Pennsylvania’s Positive Psychology Center that specializes in the use of big data to measure health and happiness in order to improve well-being. The other is Aleksandr Kogan, who also works in the field of positive psychology and has written papers on happiness, kindness, and love (according to his résumé, an early paper was called “Down the Rabbit Hole: A Unified Theory of Love”). He ran the Prosociality and Well-being Laboratory, under the auspices of Cambridge University’s Well-Being Institute.

    Despite its prominence in research on well-being, Kosinski’s work, Cadwalladr points out, drew a great deal of interest from British and American intelligence agencies and defense contractors, including overtures from the private company running an intelligence project nicknamed “Operation KitKat” because a correlation had been found between anti-Israeli sentiments and liking Nikes and KitKats. Several of Kosinski’s co-authored papers list the US government’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, or DARPA, as a funding source. His résumé boasts of meetings with senior figures at two of the world’s largest defense contractors, Boeing and Microsoft, both companies that have sponsored his research. He ran a workshop on digital footprints and psychological assessment for the Singaporean Ministry of Defense.

    For his part, Aleksandr Kogan established a company, Global Science Research, that contracted with SCL, using Facebook data to map personality traits for its work in elections (Kosinski claims that Kogan essentially reverse-engineered the app that he and Stillwell had developed). Kogan’s app harvested data on Facebook users who agreed to take a personality test for the purposes of academic research (though it was, in fact, to be used by SCL for non-academic ends). But according to Wylie, the app also collected data on their entire—and nonconsenting—network of friends. Once Cambridge Analytica and SCL had won contracts with the State Department and were pitching to the Pentagon, Wylie became alarmed that this illegally-obtained data had ended up at the heart of government, along with the contractors who might abuse it.

    This apparently bizarre intersection of research on topics like love and kindness with defense and intelligence interests is not, in fact, particularly unusual. It is typical of the kind of dual-use research that has shaped the field of social psychology in the US since World War II.

    Much of the classic, foundational research on personality, conformity, obedience, group polarization, and other such determinants of social dynamics—while ostensibly civilian—was funded during the cold war by the military and the CIA. The cold war was an ideological battle, so, naturally, research on techniques for controlling belief was considered a national security priority. This psychological research laid the groundwork for propaganda wars and for experiments in individual “mind control.” The pioneering figures from this era—for example, Gordon Allport on personality and Solomon Asch on belief conformity—are still cited in NATO psy-ops literature to this day.

    The recent revival of this cold war approach has taken place in the setting of the war on terror, which began in 1998 with Bill Clinton’s Presidential Decision Directive 62, making terrorism America’s national security priority. Martin Seligman, the psychologist who has bridged the military and civilian worlds more successfully than any other with his work on helplessness and resilience, was at the forefront of the new dual-use initiative. His research began as a part of a cold war program of electroshock experiments in the 1960s. He subjected dogs to electric shocks, rendering them passive to the point that they no longer even tried to avoid the pain, a state he called “learned helplessness.” This concept then became the basis of a theory of depression, along with associated ideas about how to foster psychological resilience.

    In 1998, Seligman founded the positive psychology movement, dedicated to the study of psychological traits and habits that foster authentic happiness and well-being, spawning an enormous industry of popular self-help books. At the same time, his work attracted interest and funding from the military as a central part of its soldier-resilience initiative. Seligman had previously worked with the CIA and even before September 11, 2001, his new movement was in tune with America’s shifting national security priorities, hosting in its inaugural year a conference in Northern Ireland on “ethno-political conflict.”

    But it was after the September 11 attacks that terrorism became Seligman’s absolute priority. In 2003, he said that the war with jihadis must take precedence over all other academic research, saying of his colleagues: “If we lose the war, the laudable, but pet projects they endorse, will not be issues… If we win this war, we can go on to pursue the normal goals of science.” Money poured into the discipline for these purposes. The Department of Homeland Security established Centers of Excellence in universities for interdisciplinary research into the social and psychological roots of terrorism. Elsewhere, scholars worked more obliquely on relevant behavioral technologies.

    Some of the psychological projects cultivated under the banner of the war on terror will be familiar to many readers. Psychologists such as Jonathan Haidt and Steven Pinker, and their colleagues in other disciplines (most prominently, the Harvard Law professor Cass Sunstein) rehabilitated the cold war research on “group polarization” as a way of understanding not, this time, the radicalism that feeds “totalitarianism,” but the equally amorphous notion of “extremism.” They sought to combat extremism domestically by promoting “viewpoint diversity” both on campus (through organizations such as the Heterodox Academy, run by Haidt and funded by libertarian billionaire Paul Singer) and online, suggesting ways in which websites might employ techniques from social psychology to combat phenomena such as “confirmation bias.” Their notion of “appropriate heterogeneity” (Sunstein) in moral and political views remains controversial.

    Seligman himself saw the potential for using the Internet to bring his research on personality together with new ways of gathering data. This project began shortly after the September 11 attacks, with a paper on “Character Strengths Before and After September 11,” which focused on variations in traits such as trust, love, teamwork, and leadership. It ultimately evolved into the innovative World Well-Being Project at Penn. Seligman also fostered links with Cambridge University, where he is on the board of the Well-Being Institute that employs the same kind of psychometric techniques. The aim of these programs is not simply to analyze our subjective states of mind but to discover means by which we can be “nudged” in the direction of our true well-being as positive psychologists understand it, which includes attributes like resilience and optimism. Seligman’s projects are almost all funded by the Templeton Foundation and may have been employed for entirely civilian purposes. But in bringing together the personality research and the behavioral technologies that social psychologists had for decades been refining with the new tool of big data (via the astonishing resources provided by social media), it has created an important template for what is now the cutting-edge work of America’s intelligence community.

    In 2008, then Secretary of Defense Robert Gates commissioned the Minerva Initiative, funded by the DoD, which brought researchers in the social sciences together to study culture and terrorism, and specifically supported initiatives involving the analysis of social media. One of the Cornell scientists involved also participated in the famous and controversial Facebook study of emotional contagion. Less well known is the Open Source Indicators program at the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity, or IARPA (a body under the Director of National Intelligence), which has aimed to analyze social media in order to predict social unrest and political crises.

    In a 2014 interview, Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, speaking then as head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said that such open-source data initiatives, and in particular the study of social media such as Facebook, had entirely transformed intelligence-gathering. He reported that traditional signals intelligence and human intelligence were increasingly being replaced by this open-source work and that the way in which intelligence agents are trained had been modified to accommodate the shift. A growing portion of the military’s $50 billion budget would be spent on this data analytics work, he claimed, creating a “gold rush” for contractors. A few weeks after this interview, Flynn left the DIA to establish the Flynn Intel Group Inc. He later acted as a consultantto the SCL Group.

    Carole Cadwalladr reported in The Observer last year that it was Sophie Schmidt, daughter of Alphabet founder Eric Schmidt, who made SCL aware of this gold rush, telling Alexander Nix, then head of SCL Elections, that the company should emulate Palantir, the company set up by Peter Thiel and funded with CIA venture capital that has now won important national security contracts. Schmidt threatened to sue Cadwalladr for reporting this information. But Nix recently admitted before a parliamentary select committee in London that Schmidt had interned for Cambridge Analytica, though he denied that she had introduced him to Peter Thiel. Aleksandr Kogan and Christopher Wylie allowed Cambridge Analytica to evolve into an extremely competitive operator in this arena.

    It was by no means inevitable that dual-use research at the intersection of psychology and data science would be employed along with illegally-obtained caches of data to manipulate elections. But dual-use research in psychology does seem to present a specific set of dangers. Many areas of scientific research have benefited from dual-use initiatives. The National Cancer Institute began its life in the early 1970s as part of a coordinated program examining the effects of tumor agents developed as bio-weapons at Fort Detrick. The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, similarly, researched the effects of militarily manufactured hazardous viruses. This was the foundation of a biotechnology industry that has become a paradigm case of dual use and has led, in spite of its more sinister side, to invaluable medical breakthroughs. But the development of behavioral technologies intended for military-grade persuasion in cyber-operations is rooted in a specific perspective on human beings, one that is at odds with the way they should be viewed in democratic societies.

    I’ve written previously about the way in which a great deal of contemporary behavioral science aims to exploit our irrationalities rather than overcome them. A science that is oriented toward the development of behavioral technologies is bound to view us narrowly as manipulable subjects rather than rational agents. If these technologies are becoming the core of America’s military and intelligence cyber-operations, it looks as though we will have to work harder to keep these trends from affecting the everyday life of our democratic society. That will mean paying closer attention to the military and civilian boundaries being crossed by the private companies that undertake such cyber-operations.          

    In the academic world, it should entail a refusal to apply the perspective of propaganda research more generally to social problems. From social media we should demand, at a minimum, much greater protection of our data. Over time, we might also see a lower tolerance for platforms whose business model relies on the collection and commercial exploitation of that data. As for politics, rather than elected officials’ perfecting technologies that give them access to personal information about the electorate, their focus should be on informing voters about their policies and actions, and making themselves accountable.

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Today’s News 23rd March 2018

  • South African Politician Blasts "Racist" Australia For Harboring Fleeing White Farmers

    In perhaps the most Orwellian statement of the day, the head of South Africa’s radical Marxist opposition party – who declared his party was “cutting the throat of whiteness” – called Australia a “racist country” for offering fleeing white farmers a refuge.

    As we have detailed previously, last month, South Africa’s parliament voted in favour of a motion, brought by the EFF and supported by the ruling African National Congress, to begin the process of expropriating white-owned land without compensation.

    As Simon Black noted, this is likely to end badly.

    That’s exactly what Zimbabwe did.

    Seeking to correct similar colonial and Apartheid-era injustices in his country, Zimbabwe’s president Robert Mugabe initiated a land redistribution program in 1999-2000.

    Thousands of white-owned farms were confiscated by the government, and the farmers were forced out.

    Bear in mind that Zimbabwe used to be known as the breadbasket of southern Africa. Zimbabwe’s world-class farmers were major food exporters to the rest of the region.

    But within a few years of Mugabe’s land distribution, food production plummeted.

    Without its professional, experienced farmers, the nation went from being an agricultural export powerhouse to having to rely on handouts from the United Nations’ World Food Programme.

    Hyperinflation and a multi-decade depression followed.

    If there’s an economic model in the world that you DON’T want to follow, it’s Zimbabwe.

    And you’d think that the politicians in neighboring South Africa would know that.

    They had a front-row seat to the effects of Mugabe’s land redistribution, not to mention they had to absorb millions of starving Zimbabwean refugees who came across their borders.

    Yet this is precisely the policy that they want to adopt.

    The problem is – a 2017 government audit found white people owned 72 per cent of farmland in South Africa. According to the 2011 census, there are about 4.6 million white people in South Africa, accounting for 8.9 per cent of the population.

    And as Australia’s News.com reports, the racially charged issue of land rights and farm murders has been the subject of fierce debate in the country and internationally.

    According to civil rights group Afriforum, which represents around 200,000 white farmers largely from the Afrikaner minority, 82 people were killed in a record 423 attacks on farms last year. In 2018 so far, there have already been 109 attacks and more than 15 murders.

    Afriforum says it is forced to compile its own numbers because the South African government — which denies the attacks are racially motivated or that white farmers are killed in disproportionate numbers — stopped releasing farm murder statistics in 2008.

    “Our rural areas are trapped in a crime war,” Afriforum head of safety Ian Cameron said in a statement, adding that torture with irons, blowtorches, melted plastic and boiling water often continued for hours during the attacks.

    “Although the South African government denies that a violence crisis is staring rural areas in the face, the numbers prove that excessive violence plague these areas. Government cannot deny the facts — our people are being mowed down.”

    Which is why, earlier this month, Australian Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton floated the idea of fast-tracked humanitarian visas for white South African farmers, saying they faced “horrific circumstances” and needed help from a “civilised country.”

    “We’re looking at ways we can help people to migrate to Australia if they’re finding themselves in that situation.”

    And despite the facts of savage attacks on white farmers, this statement outraged South Africa’s government who claimed “the threat did not exist” and accused Mr Dutton of being an “out and out racist.”

    But today the rhetoric heated up further as Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) leader Julius Malema, who recently declared his party was “cutting the throat of whiteness”, denied white farmers were being killed, telling a packed crowd that “we don’t know violence, we know negotiations.”

    Malema, who was convicted of hate speech in 2011 for singing the apartheid-era revolutionary song Shoot the Boer, Kill the Farmer and in 2016 told supporters he was “not calling for the slaughter of white people‚ at least for now”, said farmers should “leave quietly”.

    “We’re too busy,” he said. “Don’t make noise, because you will irritate us. Go to Australia. It is only racists who went to Australia when Mandela got out of prison. It is only racists who went to Australia when 1994 came. It is the racists again who are going back to Australia.”

    But he said they would be “poor in Australia”. “They are rich here because they are exploiting black people. There is no black person to be exploited in Australia, they are going to be poor.

    “They will come back here with their tail between their legs. We will hire them because we will be the owners of their farms when they come back to South Africa. As to what we are going to do with the land, it’s our business, it’s none of your business.

    “We want Africa back. Africa belongs to our people.

    “We are saying that which our people were killed for … has not been achieved, and therefore we will continue with that struggle. When we say so, they say we are racist, they say we want to kill white people. Why would we kill white people?

    “Our mothers and fathers are not murderers. The white settlers found them here, they killed them, they forcefully removed them, yet our people kept on saying: ‘Let’s talk.’

    “Today we say: ‘Let’s talk like our parents kept on saying to you. Let’s talk about how we are going to expropriate land without compensation.’ Then when we say so, they say we want to kill them.”

    The Transvaal Agricultural Union of South Africa (TAU SA), a commercial farmers union in the region, warned the country is in danger of traveling the same path as Zimbabwe, which “plunged into famine after a government-sanctioned purge of white farmers in the 2000s,” said the Russian Times.

    “Where in the world has expropriation without compensation coupled to the waste of agricultural land, resulted in foreign confidence, economic growth and increased food production?” Meintjes said, via Australia’s news.com.au.

    “If Mr Ramaphosa is set on creating an untenable situation, he should actively create circumstances which will promote famine. His promise to expropriate land without compensation sows the seed for revolution. Expropriation without compensation is theft.”

    Freedom Front Plus leader Pieter Groenewald warned, 

    “If you continue on this course, I can assure you there is going to be unforeseen consequences that is not in the interest of South Africa.”

    The Coming Civil War in South Africa explained: 

  • Salisbury, Skripal, And Novichok – A Local's View

    Authored by Lesley Docksey via TruePublica,

    From the moment the news came out that on Sunday March 4th in Salisbury, one of England’s revered cathedral cities, a Russian spy and his daughter had been poisoned by some form of ‘nerve agent’, my reaction was ‘Oh dear’.

    Jeremy Corbyn correctly reminded Parliament of Tony Blair’s attempt to frighten people into going to war with Iraq with his ‘’dodgy dossier’ and 45 minutes claim.  But most have forgotten that, four days before the huge demonstration in London the Army very visibly arrived at Heathrow airport, because there was a possible threat of planes being hit by al Qa’ida missiles.  They disappeared after a day or so as it was obvious the protest by millions would go ahead anyway.

    The ever-increasing hysteria of the government and mainstream media in the days that followed the Salisbury incident was giving off the same nasty smell.  All the ‘news’ was evidence-light and full of anomalies that no one addressed.  It seems that once again, a government is trying to scare everyone, this time to make us point the accusing finger at Russia.

    Then I read a comment by a Salisbury resident: “It’s like a ghost town.”  The government’s reaction had so frightened everyone that people weren’t coming to the city.  Shops and businesses were suffering.  I don’t exactly live a million miles from Salisbury, so I hopped on the train to see for myself how it was coping.

    Visit Salisbury at any time of the year and it will be heaving with people coming to shop, to eat at one of the many cafes, restaurants and pubs, to visit the Cathedral and to walk through the ancient narrow streets.  Not now, it isn’t.  From the moment I walked out of the station towards the city centre I was struck by the lack of people.  Plenty of traffic winding its way through the narrow medieval streets but pedestrians?  No.

    I made my way to the Maltings where Skripal and his daughter had been found, collapsed on a bench.  It’s a pedestrianised area, with a central green area (where that bench was) beside a river, surrounded by some big stores and lots of little, individual shops.  Walk through it from the car parks and you come out into the old city centre with its ancient timber-frame and brick buildings.  It’s not just popular with the locals, it is tourist heaven.

    On my way in there was a policemen on duty and blue-and-white cordon tape.  Further in were more police guarding cordoned-off areas and some media – cameras and reporters making their filmed reports to Sky News or whoever.  I overheard one of them saying “She is due to arrive…”  Could I possibly have arrived just before our useless Prime Minister Theresa May finally came to Salisbury?  I would have to wait and see.

    I filled in time with looking at some of the shops.  There were five within the cordon, forced to close for nearly two weeks, and no end in sight. Beyond them, just outside the cordon, was an Original factory Shop Factory Shop with open doors. I didn’t go in. I didn’t want to face the embarrassment of being the only person in a large store not standing behind a counter.  Sainsbury’s supermarket, on the edge of the Maltings, wasn’t faring much better.

    I tried the little shops, loved by visitors to Salisbury.  It is nearly Easter.  Windows were filled with Easter displays, and no public to enjoy them. In each was a lonely person waiting in vain for customers.  I asked one of them how bad the trade was.  “It’s twice as bad as it was last week,” she said, “and it’s getting worse.”  Depressed, I went back and stood by the bridge over the river, waiting for May.

    The press were gathering, more cameras, microphones held ready.  A Wiltshire policeman passed me and grinned. “We don’t usually have exciting things happen in Salisbury!” he said cheerfully.  But Salisbury really could do without this thrill.

    May appeared with Chief Constable Pritchard and was immediately surrounded by the press.  I heard an animated conversation going on behind me.  It was Jon Snow of Channel 4 News, talking to some local people.  They only realised who he was after he walked off, back to the city centre and away from the media scrum.  Sensible man.

    Two schoolgirls passed May on their way back to school after lunch, one of them saying, “I don’t really care about her.”  May went on a tiny walk-about and met one or two shop owners, probably handpicked for being Prime Minister-friendly.  Then it was off to the Guildhall for a meeting with first-responders.

    The empty Guildhall Square at lunchtime – every building in the photo is a café, pub or restaurant!

    Outside was a crowd, rubber necking, along with lots of police, some noisy police dogs, and a fire engine.  Hovering overhead were helicopters and a drone.  No wonder Salisbury residents and visitors are becoming fearful and staying away.  Apart from the crowd standing outside the Guildhall, the large Guildhall Square was almost deserted, and this at lunchtime when offices empty and people fill the cafes, restaurants and pubs that surround the Square and it’s hard to find a free table anywhere.  Now they were almost all free.

    Here and there I saw large signs outside the shops declaring, ‘Open for Business’.  I had never seen the city like this and it broke my heart.  It is scheduled to get worse.  On Monday March 12th the Metropolitan Police Assistant Commissioner said that all the cordoned areas (of which there are several around the city) could remain in place for weeks, and that more could be set up.

    But Salisbury has had enough and is fighting back.  In a narrow street going towards the cathedral I found a shop window with a message strung across it: #SALISBURYISOPEN.  Naturally I went in and asked the woman behind the counter what it meant.  And it all came pouring out.  “We’ve just recovered from all the ‘regeneration work’ on the car parks and the Maltings, when this happens,” she said, while explaining her message.

    The Salisbury Journal, the city’s weekly paper, is one to be envied by other places.  The March 15th issue has a 12-page focus on the incident which puts the hyperventilating national press to shame.  The Journal is also doing what government has failed to do.  Ministers might insist Salisbury is ‘safe’, but that doesn’t match their scare-mongering.  So the Journal launched the ‘Salisbury is Open’ campaign.  That is what the ‘Open for Business’ signs are about.

    I was told how Salisbury residents are too frightened to come into the centre to shop.  I was told of suspect vehicles being taken by the military to Porton Down, a fact confirmed by the Journal.  The Journal carefully lists them: ambulances, police cars (some unmarked) and two vehicle recovery vans, over several days.

    Altogether, about 10 or 11 vehicles, for the scientists at Porton Down to examine for the presence of a ‘nerve agent’.  Scientists there must be tired of this, having apparently refused to identify it as Russian-made.

    But the real question, says the lady in the shop, is ‘What about Skripal’s car?’ a red BMW series 3.  Why was it taking so long for the police to find it?  Surely they would look in the Sainsbury’s car park first?  They cordoned off the car park, but not until 8 days after the poisoning.  Later they came back and cordoned off the ticket machine.

    It is known Skripal’s car entered the car park at about 1:40 pm on March 4th.  When was it taken to the Ashley Wood Recovery Garage, and by whom?  And indeed, why, unless to get it out of the way?

    Why did ‘incident response units’ examine a red BMW at the Garage on Thursday March 8th, remove an Ashley Wood recovery van from Winterslow village on Monday 12th, return to the Garage on Tuesday 13th, remove another recovery van from a Dorset town on Thursday March 14th and only then on Friday, 12 whole days after the incident, it is officially identified as Skripal’s car, and the Journal reports that it is being removed from Ashley Wood Recovery Garage, with the national media limping in a day later.

    12 days.  If this nerve agent is so very dangerous why is there so little to show for so much activity, and so many delays in dealing with it?  Doesn’t it look like an exercise in propaganda?

    Are the counter terrorism police going trace all those who used the car park ticket machine?  Are they going to cordon off any place (the cemetery is already out of bounds) where Skripal may possibly have been?  Are they going to spin this out even more and gradually put all of Ashley Wood’s vehicles in Porton Down, and all its staff in hospital?  Another local business ruined to further the UK’s anti-Russia campaign.

    There is no thought for the city of Salisbury and its people in any of the government’s actions, so focussed are they on their unsubstantiated accusations against Russia.  A Foreign Office statement claimed:

    “Russia’s response doesn’t change the facts of the matter – the attempted assassination of two people on British soil, for which there is no alternative conclusion other than that the Russian State was culpable.”

    The Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee, said it was a ‘state-sponsored murder attempt’.  But which ‘state’ are we talking about?

    It’s been clear for months that the government was using the Brexit shambles to hide the fact that they couldn’t govern the country and tackle its pressing issues – the health crisis, homelessness and lack of social housing, poverty and the awful results of its austerity programme.  Now it seems that the government is using Skripal to hide the fact that they can’t govern Brexit either.

    And while they’re sorting out their fantastical mess, and if you live anywhere near Salisbury, go visit, eat out and buy something in the shops.

  • White House Soap Operas Distract From Real Global Dangers

    Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

    In the liberty movement, we often refer to the historical tactic of the Roman “bread and circuses” when describing the deliberate mass distraction of the public of today. In the era when Roman emperors supplanted the senate and dominated political and social life, it was deemed advantageous to create various forms of “entertainment,” often violent, in order to keep the citizenry preoccupied and thus less likely to physically act against the power structure as the empire suffered economic decline.

    The use of bread and circuses continues into our era, but the method has been refined and the manipulations have become in some ways more subtle.

    For example, in ancient Rome the horrors of the Colosseum were meant to keep the public’s attention AWAY from the government.

    Today, the soap opera of government keeps people’s attention away from the true power brokers within global finance.

    The White House itself has been molded into just another reality TV show, and mainstream media coverage has been relentless. With Donald Trump (no stranger to reality TV) at center stage, it is difficult for the citizenry to gauge what is politically legitimate and important. What we are bombarded with is an ever escalating drama between Trump, his staff, and the media, and instead of ignoring the theater many people are desperately seeking to interpret the meaning behind a show that is actually meaningless.

    Every two weeks or so another episode develops in which Trump, playing the character of the brash and aggressive “populist,” fires one of his cabinet as if The Apprentice never ended, but was simply transferred to the Oval Office. Some people find this entertaining as it is Trump doing what he is most recently famous for doing. Those on the political left interpret this as reckless abandon and confirmation that their fears over Trump being ill suited to the presidency are justified. Still others in the liberty movement who originally supported Trump’s campaign are perhaps desperately looking for vindication. They wanted so badly to avoid the inevitable evils of a Clinton regime that they are now willing to give Trump a pass on almost anything, and they argue that the endless turnover in the Trump White House is Trump fulfilling his election promise of “draining the swamp.”

    It is important to note that Trump is NOT draining the swamp of elitism in Washington D.C. The public is so focused on who Trump gives the boot they are forgetting to pay attention to the institutions that never leave. But what do I mean by this?

    Let’s look at the some of the more widely publicized staff changes at the White House. Dina Powell, a Goldman Sachs alumni, was recently replaced as National Security Adviser, and so, the argument that Trump is “draining the swamp” persists. Yet, Powell was replaced by H.R. McMaster, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and hardly a stranger to elitist circles.

    Gary Cohn, another Goldman Sachs agent, has left his post as Chief Economic Adviser and has been replaced by “conservative” Larry Kudlow, ostensibly as Trump is “cleaning house” and removing globalist influences in preparation for his war to balance the trade deficit. Yet, Kudlow is was a campaign coordinator who worked closely with the likes of Bill Clinton and John Podesta, as well as other major Democrat personalities. He began his career as a staff economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and oversaw the fall of Bear Stearns which was one of the sparks that launched the 2008 credit crisis. This guy is in no way a true conservative, nor is he some kind of anti-globalist replacement for Gary Cohn.

    Rex Tillerson’s firing, one of the most recent dramas, has led to the position of Secretary of State being filled by CIA Director Mike Pompeo.  Pompeo is often portrayed as a former “Tea Party congressmen”, yet he is a rabid supporter of mass surveillance of the American people by the NSA through FISA related programs, and has referred to Wikileaks as a “non-state hostile intelligence service.”  First, this only proves further the “Tea Party” label has been so thoroughly co-opted by the establishment that it is laughable to refer to it in any relation to true conservatives and liberty champions.  Second, it also shows that Trump has no intention of making any significant changes to the Beltway; only cosmetic changes are allowed.

    And so it goes on and on. If one looks closely at the Trump administration, they will find that the people within the cabinet are changing constantly, but the elitist and globalist organizations and ideologies those people represent are always present within the White House. They never leave.

    The swamp is not being “drained,” it is simply being shifted around so that the American people can’t keep up with the names of the swamp creatures and the positions they hold.

    Ever since the days of Woodrow Wilson, a president purportedly controlled from within the White House by adviser Col. Mandel House (the founder of the Council On Foreign Relations), it has been common practice for globalists to use presidents as proxies. That is to say, the president is generally a mascot held up to the public as a target for political criticism or as a rallying tool to push the population in a particular direction. All the while, the true power brokers work from behind the curtain, dictating policy towards the paths of either globalization or disaster.

    Trump is an interesting case as far as this 4th generation warfare is concerned. Never in modern times has a president’s rhetoric been so openly hostile to the globalists, while at the same time harboring those very same globalists within his administration. Never before has a fabricated battle between the White House and globalization as an ideology been used as a distraction from globalism itself. This is something entirely new.

    The issue is something I warned about consistently before Trump was even elected, and it is the reason I predicted that he would become president. Trump, in my view according to the evidence so far, is controlled opposition. He is a foil for the globalist battle against ideas of conservatism, sovereignty and nationalism. Instead of attacking these ideas outright (a losing battle), the elitists have presented a strawman in the form of Donald Trump. Trump’s actions seem to follow conservative guidelines but his policies are poorly executed, which sets the stage for future failures on an epic scale.

    As I mentioned in my article Trump Trade Wars A Perfect Smokescreen For A Market Crash, the timing of Trump’s initiatives could not be more perfect…for international financiers and central banks, that is.

    Currently, the Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world are embarking on a process of tightening stimulus measures that have been artificially propping up stock markets and bond markets since the 2008 crash. In particular, the Fed’s move to continue hiking interest rates and cut its balance sheet as negative economic data rolls in has set light to the fuse of a fiscal explosion. Market dependency on cheap debt is total. Corporate debt levels are at all time highs as companies sink further and further into the red in a desperate attempt to inflate their own stock prices through stock buybacks. The Fed has been facilitating this market manipulation for quite some time, but now the party is over.

    With each new rate hike and balance sheet reduction markets become more volatile and unstable. The Fed under new chairman Jerome Powell is well aware of what it is doing, considering Powell warned of the consequences of this as far back as 2012. It is highly unlikely though that when the economy crashes central bankers will get the blame.

    As March rolls into April, it is also important to note that the Fed’s balance sheet reductions are slated to expand to $30 billion per month or more.  So far, the Fed has shown a habit of cutting far beyond their publicly stated goals.  With markets dropping by thousands of points every time there is a balance sheet reduction, the instability is only going to increase exponentially.

    Also, is it just a coincidence that every new Trump tariff and trade war announcement seems to take place at the same time as the Fed’s rate hikes and balance sheet cuts?  This sure does make it appear as though Trump is the cause of the subsequent stock market declines rather than the central bank, doesn’t it?

    Trump’s continued soap opera theater is building up the narrative of a slapdash presidency run by a bumbling novice. Trump’s initiation of a trade war without necessary preparations, such as giving corporations incentives to move manufacturing back to the U.S. and creating production independence, is an excellent smokescreen for a collapse of stock markets and a dumping of U.S. Treasury bonds by foreign creditors.

    For those wondering why globalist elements would deliberately crash the American economy, I suggest they read my article The Economic Endgame Explained. To summarize, in order to reach their openly stated goals of a one world currency system, as well as total centralization of global economic administration, certain appendages of the current system must be sacrificed. One of those appendages is the American economy as it exists now, along with the U.S. dollar as the world reserve currency.

    Such an attack on our country and our society would not go without notice or possible retaliation. Therefore, the banking elitists need a scapegoat. I have said it before and I’ll say it again — there is no better scapegoat that the Trump White House. Why? Because the Trump White House has been painted since the election as a symbol of stalwart conservatism, even though it is not. The demonization of conservative principles such as limited government, true free markets, personal liberty, etc. becomes much easier when globalists can attach them to an international catastrophe such as a financial collapse.

    And, since Trump has been set up as the strawman for conservative ideals, attaching catastrophe to Trump also vicariously attaches catastrophe to the rest of us.

    The only way to undermine this 4th generation warfare tactic is for conservatives to ignore the White House soap opera and to question Donald Trump’s policies publicly when they do not meet logical or practical standards. Blindly supporting Trump because of his rhetoric only harms our cause in the long run, and refusing to acknowledge the fact that he has surrounded himself with the very globalists he is supposedly at war with only sets us up for tragedy. If we remain skeptical and maintain our principles, however, it becomes much harder for the mainstream media or anyone else to implicate us in any great calamity that Trump is blamed for.

    *  *  *

    If you would like to support the publishing of articles like the one you have just read, visit Brandon’s donations page here.

  • Facebook Fines Not Enough: Open Markets Institute Demands Full-Restructuring "To Protect Democracy"

    It appears Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s non-apology apology statement and robotic CNN interview, that he feels bad and is sorry, were not enough to quell the concerns of both shareholders and regulators as the Open Markets Institute demands that The FTC restructure Facebook and lays out 9 steps to achieve that…

    Via The Guardian

    Since news broke that a data analysis firm with ties to the Trump campaign harvested personal information from tens of millions of Facebook users, much of the speculation has focused on whether the Federal Trade Commission will fine the corporation for violating a 2011 deal to protect user privacy.

    But the pressing nature of America’s Facebook problem, especially the way the corporation’s actions have endangered basic democratic institutions, means the FTC should go much further.

    Facebook has too much power over America’s communications infrastructure. And Facebook’s failure to manage that power responsibly has made it too easy for Russian hackers to spread propaganda and disinformation, even while making it too hard for trustworthy American journalists and editors to do their jobs. This is a direct threat to American democracy, and the government must act now,” said Barry Lynn, Executive Director of Open Markets.

    If the next set of FTC commissioners truly are serious about making Facebook serve the interests of the American public, here is a set of actions they should begin to take on day one.

    Every one of these action has a strong foundation in US law and practice:

    1) Impose strict privacy rules on Facebook, perhaps using Europe’s new General Data Protection Regulation as a guide.

    2) Spin off Facebook’s ad network. This will eliminate, in one swoop, most of the incentive that Facebook now has to amass data and to interfere and discriminate in the provision of information and news.

    3) Reverse the approvals for Facebook purchases of WhatsApp and Instagram, and re-establish these as competing social networks.

    4) Prohibit all future acquisitions by Facebook for at least five years.

    5) Establish a system to ensure the transparency of all political communications on Facebook, similar to other major communication networks in the United States.

    6) Require Facebook to adopt open and transparent standards, similar to conditions the FTC imposed on AOL Messenger in the AOL-Time Warner merger settlement in 2001.

    7) Establish whether Facebook violated the 2011 consent decree and, if so, seek court sanctions.

    8) Threaten to bring further legal action against Facebook unless top executives immediately agree to work with the FTC to restructure their corporation to ensure the safety and stability of our government and economy.

    9) Establish whether top executives enabled, encouraged, or oversaw violations of the 2011 consent decree and, if so, pursue personal fines against them.

    Rather than simply carve away some of Facebook’s huge profits, the FTC should immediately move to restructure the corporation to ensure this now essential medium of communication really serves the political and economic interests of American citizens in the 21st century.

    Continue reading here…

    *  *  *

    Shareholders are not happy…

     

    Could it really happen again?

  • Trump Suspends Tariffs On Multiple Nations (Not China Or Japan) Until May

    After unleashing the first shots in the global trade war, and facing some retaliation from China tonight, President Trump has decided to exclude multiple nations (and The EU) from steel and aluminum tariffs through May 1st.

    This action confirms what Ambassador Lighthizer suggested earlier in the evening, which perhaps explains the negligible response to this modest retreat in the trade war.

     

     

    Full White House Statement:

    President Trump Approves Section 232 Tariff Modifications

    WASHINGTON – Today, based on ongoing dialogues, President Donald J. Trump authorized the modification of the Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to suspend the tariffs for certain countries before they take effect. These suspensions are based on factors including ongoing discussions regarding measures to reduce global excess capacity in steel and aluminum production by addressing its root causes.

    The tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from the following countries are suspended until May 1, 2018, pending discussions of satisfactory long-term alternative means to address the threatened impairment to U.S. national security:

    • Argentina;
    • Australia;
    • Brazil;
    • Canada;
    • Mexico;
    • the member countries of the European Union; and
    • South Korea.

    By May 1, 2018, the President will decide whether to continue to exempt these countries from the tariffs, based on the status of the discussions.  The European Union will negotiate on behalf of its member countries.

    The President retains broad authority to further modify the tariffs, including by removing the suspensions or suspending additional countries.  Any country not currently suspended remains welcome to discuss a possible suspension with the United States based on a shared commitment to addressing global excess steel and aluminum capacity and production.

    The Administration will closely monitor imports of steel and aluminum imports from exempted countries, and the United States Trade Representative, in consultation with the Secretary of Commerce and the Director of the National Economic Council, may advise the President to impose quotas as appropriate. Further action by the President would be needed to implement any quota the President might decide to adopt.

    The tariffs proclaimed in Presidential Proclamations 9704 and 9705 will go into effect on 12:01 a.m. on Friday, March 23, 2018.

    The process for directly affected parties to apply for an exclusion for specific steel or aluminum products that they need remains in place, as announced in the two Presidential Proclamations and subsequent Federal Register notices by the U.S. Department of Commerce.  Secretary Ross, in consultation with other Administration officials, will evaluate exclusion requests for products, taking into account national security considerations.  In that evaluation, the Secretary will consider whether a product is produced in the United States of a satisfactory quality or in a sufficient and reasonably available amount.

    *  *  *

    While few would have expected any China exemption – that’s the whole point – it was perhaps notable that Japan was not exempted.

  • Brother Of Pablo Escobar Releases ‘Dietbitcoin’ As Alternative To ‘CIA’s Bitcoin Scam’

    Submitted by CoinTelegraph

    The brother of late Columbian drug lord Pablo Escobar, Roberto Escobar, has released his own alternative to Bitcoin (BTC), a BTC hard fork called dietbitcoin (DDX).

    image courtesy of CoinTelegraph

    Roberto Escobar’s connection to dietbitcoin has been independently confirmed by a spokesperson for Escobar Inc., Roberto Escobar’s investment company, to TheNextWeb today, March 22.

    Roberto De Jesús Escobar Gaviria’s website for dietbitcoin includes a 281 page book, available as a downloaded PDF, entitled “The True Story by Roberto Escobar: Pablo Escobar’s Dietbitcoin” and subtitled, “After making $100 bln dollars, Roberto Escobar launches the dietbitcoin ‘DDX’ cryptocurrency.”

    If one does not have time to read the full version, which includes chapters entitled “The Other Peruvian Plane,” and “Noriega, The Traitor”, interested parties can download the white paper laying out the impetus for the creation of DDX in a short introduction:

    “I am the first person in the world, Roberto De Jesus Escobar Gaviria, to publicly come out and claim that Bitcoin was created by the American Government, and I am not going to be the last person to say this. The world is going to wake up. The world is going to see that this was created by them. And when they see it, it is too late, and when the CIA founds out that the world knows about this, the CIA is going to sell all of their coins, and they will destroy the value of Bitcoin…That’s why I am creating my own cryptocurrency called dietbitcoin (DDX).”

    Dietbitcoin is currently running an Initial Coin Offering (ICO) that consists of three rounds with 1 mln DDX coins as the cap for the crowdsale. The pre-ICO round 1 offers a total of 300,000 coins for $2 a coin, a sale price from the $50 originally listed, pre-ICO round 2 offers 300,000 coins for $100 each, and the ICO will have 400,000 tokens for $1000 each.

    However, the total number of coins is written as 1.8 mln, with a supply cap of 21 mln.

    According to Roberto Escobar’s book, it was the elusive Satoshi Nakamoto that approached him about cryptocurrencies initially:

    “I get a phone call, this time it is from El Conejo [nickname]. El Conejo is telling me that he is talking to Satoshi Nakamoto. He is not just talking. He is with him right now in Lima, Peru. I said, ‘El Conejo, I do not know who this man is. Bring him to my house.’ El Conejo responded “OK.”

    I kept reading in the newspapers about this cryptocurrency called Bitcoin. I didn’t know what it was all about. I didn’t care. Until El Conejo called me again. This time, he told me that we are doing our own cryptocurrency. I didn’t understand. He told me that the founder of Bitcoin wants to do a cryptocurrency with the family of Pablo Emillio Escobar Gavirira. I said, ‘OK. I approve the deal.’”

    However, Roberto Escobar then explains that Nakamoto approaching him was actually “a setup by the American Government to infiltrate Escobar Incorporated,” and thus his dietbitcoin is the superior coin as it will not allow the “Americanos” to track users’ purchases.

    Escobar was also apparently in contact with another well-known figure in the crypto community, John McAfee in the hopes of creating a cryptocurrency together, but eventually turned the deal down for being “too small:”

    “I didn’t like the guy; small guy. I never heard of him before. Nobody in Colombia knows his name. I do not know if the world knows about him or not, but I do not know about him.

    I said to El Conejo, ‘How can you make a company with a guy that nobody knows about except you?’ El Conejo said ‘It’s not like that.’ I replied ‘Well that is the way that it looks to me. John McAfee I never heard of him. I never heard of his name. It’s a worthless name. You know the name that you need is my name. Not the name of this man.’”

    Robert Escobar also explains in his book why he does not think that Ethereum (ETH) is a legitimate coin, mentioning the youth of Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin as a factor:

    “Ethereum is a complete scam. This is nice technology, but it was created by a small child. Who cares about this child? I do not care. He can come here and talk to me in my face. I will say ‘Sir, you are a gringo. You think I care about the gringo coin? I don’t care.’ All of these other coins and tokens; do not even get me started on tokens.”

    Earlier this year, another big name, actor and “zen master” Steven Seagal, attached his name to the new cryptocurrency “Bitcoiin2gen,” which also posits itself as a “superior or more advanced version of [Satoshi Nakamoto’s] Original Bitcoin.” However, New Jersey has since sent a cease and desist letter concerning Bitcoiin2gen’s ICO, alleging that “unregistered securities” were offered in violation of securities laws.

  • Techlash – Is Facebook Doing More Harm Than Good?

    Amid the ongoing debate about whether or not companies such as Facebook and Twitter are responsible for the spreading of disinformation or “fake news” on their platforms, the world’s largest social network finds itself at the center of yet another scandal related to the 2016 U.S. presidential election. According to information leaked to the Observer and reported by The Guardian, a data analytics firm exploited a loophole in Facebook’s API to obtain the personal information of 50 million Facebook users in order to target them with personalized political ads.

    The company, Cambridge Analytica, was working closely with the Trump campaign and is also said to have played a role in the pro-Brexit campaign ahead of the United Kingdom’s EU referendum in 2016. “We exploited Facebook to harvest millions of people’s profiles. And built models to exploit what we knew about them and target their inner demons”, Christopher Wylie, a former Cambridge Analytica employee turned whistleblower, told the Observer.

    As Statista’s Felix Richter notes, it is not the first time that Facebook has unwillingly but rather naively enabled misuse of its platform as Josh Constine of Techcrunch interestingly points out in a recent article.

    “Facebook has naively put its faith in humanity and repeatedly been abused, exploited, and proven either negligent or complicit”, Constine writes, adding that the company lacks “cynics and diverse voices who might foresee how its products could be perverted or were conceptualized foolishly in the first place”.

    Facebook is currently facing massive criticism for its handling of the Cambridge Analytica affair, its stock price is tumbling and the hashtag #DeleteFacebook is trending on Twitter. Even before the most recent scandal, many people had started questioning whether the world’s largest social network might have gotten out of control.

    Infographic: Techlash – Is Facebook Doing More Harm Than Good? | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    In a poll conducted in December by CB Insights, 59 percent of the respondents said that they expect Facebook to be considered a net negative for society in ten years’ time.

  • The Iran-Pakistan Corridor Is A Geopolitical Powder-Keg

    Authored by Dr, Lawrence Sellin via The South Asia Program at Hudson Institute,

    The Iran-Pakistan border contains all the ingredients for a geopolitical explosion – regional rivalries, Sunni-Shia conflicts, ethnic insurgents, espionage, drug smuggling and human trafficking.

    China considers the stability of the region so important that it brokered a series of border security meetings between Iran and Pakistan over the past year.

    Much of China’s multi-billion-dollar investment in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) hinges on the commercial viability of the Pakistani port of Gwadar, near the Iranian border, for which it has a 40-year operational lease. Moreover,  CPEC is the regional linchpin of the Belt and Road Initiative, an ambitious plan to connect Eurasia, the Middle East and Africa to China through a series of land-based and maritime economic zones.

    Additionally, the planned Chinese naval base on Pakistan’s Jiwani peninsula, even closer to the Iranian border and located at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, is a critical military node in China’s “String of Pearls” facilities designed to dominate the strategic sea lanes in the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean.

    Such ambitions present a direct economic and military threat to India. Commercially, Gwadar competes with joint Iranian-Indian development of the port of Chabahar, just 150 miles to its west. 

    According to numerous reports, Saudi Arabia contributes to the instability of the border region by sponsoring virulently anti-Shia Sunni militant groups, such as Jaish al-Adl, who launch attacks on Iran from safe havens in Pakistan. 

    Iran retaliates by supporting the Baloch Liberation Front (BLF), an ethnic separatist group, whose sanctuaries and leader, Dr. Allah Nazar Baloch, are claimed to be inside Iranian territory and routinely conduct cross-border operations against Pakistani government targets. Members of the BLF are suspected to be in contact with Iranian intelligence, often through drug lords acting as intermediaries. BLF members are occasionally confused with their anti-Shia counterparts. Some months ago, a BLF team was mistakenly attacked by Iranian border guards. One member, shot in the encounter, was taken to Imam Ali Hospital in Chabahar for treatment, but later died of his wounds. The other team members were subsequently released by Iranian forces.

    There are also narco-terrorists groups on the Pakistani side of the border with indirect links to the government in Islamabad. Lashkar-e-Khorasan, a alleged Islamic State affiliate, has been reportedly involved in “cleansing” western Balochistan of Sufi Zikris, Shia Hazaras, Hindus, Christians, Ahahmadis, Sikhs or anyone else who refuses to convert to the extreme form of Sunni Islam. The purported leader of Lashkar-e-Khorasan is Mullah Shahmir Bizenjo, a resident of Turbat, whose cousin is Senator Hasil Bizenjo, a member of the National Party and currently Pakistan’s Minister of Maritime Affairs. According to the Daily Beast, one of the drug world’s most notorious opium traffickers, also from Turbat, is Imam Bizenjo aka Imam Bheel, a National Party financier, whose son, Yaqoob Bizenjo, served as a member of the Pakistan National Assembly until 2013.

    A more ominous portent of Iran-Pakistan border instability, is the return of the “Zainebiyoun” brigade. As a result of its involvement in the Syrian conflict, Iran created a unit composed of Pakistani Shia volunteers trained by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC), who have gained extensive combat experience fighting for the Assad regime against Sunni militants. It is rumored that “Zainebiyoun” members are now infiltrating back into Pakistan to provide the cadre for a Hazara self-defense force, a community long under attack by virulently anti-Shia extremist groups in Pakistan.

    Chinese efforts towards Iran-Pakistan reconciliation has borne some fruit. In recent months, there has been a flurry of agreements in trade, defense, weapons development, counter-terrorism, banking, train service, parliamentary cooperation and, most recently, art and literature

    Iran seeks to separate Pakistan from Saudi Arabia, while Pakistan tries to balance relations with both states. China benefits by reducing tensions among all the regional players in order to advance its wider economic and military aims.

    The lesson for the United States is that Afghanistan is swimming in a sea of instability and not, as we seem to presume, the focal point of that instability. American policy should be focused on burden shifting, managing and, when appropriate, exploiting instability to thwart Chinese hegemony.

  • Starbucks Chairman: "We Took A Walk On Madison Avenue. It Reminded Me Of The Financial Crisis In 2008"

    Back in June 2009, in one of our earliest posts in the aftermath of the financial crisis, we took a “random walk down Madison Avenue” and found empty storefront after empty storefront after empty storefront.

    In retrospect, the ghost town that was New York’s “Golden Mile” was not surprising: after all the US economy had just been hit with the worst recession since the Great Depression, and only an emergency liquidity injection of trillions of dollars prevented a global financial collapse.

    What is more surprising is why nearly 9 years later, at a time of what is supposed to be a coordinated global recovery, a walk along Madison Avenue reveals the exact same picture.

    But don’t take our word for it: here is Starbucks Executive Chairman Howard Schultz speaking during the company’s annual general meeting on Wednesday, and making some stunning observations.

    From the transcript:

    … let me shift just quickly into the business a bit and what’s going on in terms of the seismic change that we’re all witnessing in terms of consumer behavior in Retail.

    No, I wasn’t clairvoyant three years or four years ago, but I did notice something and you didn’t have to be a genius to figure it out that the e-commerce effect of things was going to have a dramatic effect on people physically shopping for goods and services. And that has resulted in a tremendous level of compression in terms of the amount of retailers that are serving customers today because less customers are coming into their stores and that has resulted in unfortunately many, many stores national, regional, and local going out of business.

    Now this is a photo as you can see of a mall that is very, very busy with people shopping for goods and services. Unfortunately, that was then, this is now. And it’s a dramatic change. And what it means and you saw this today and what we’ve tried to present to you is that we’ve got a push for reinvention and innovation and we have to do – everything we can to become a primary destination.

    Now, as a result of what we’re witnessing, we’re also seeing something else and that is, there is a proliferation around the country right now of empty storefronts. We took a walk in New York two weeks ago from 59th street to 79th on Madison Avenue, and we lost count of how many empty storefronts there were in Manhattan. It reminded me of the cataclysmic financial crisis in 2008. But what’s happening is very simple, the rent structures for the last 5 to 10 years, have been rising at historic rates and retailers do not have the amount of  customers they had during these last 5 to 10 years and could no longer economically survive.

    So they’re closing stores and as a result of this, I can promise you just like I predicted in 2014 that rents are coming down and landlords are going to have to get religion, or else their stores are going to stay empty. And we’re already beginning to see a different level of reception in terms of what we believe the cost of occupancy should be. And this is going to bode extremely well, specifically for us. We’re adding almost 700 new Starbucks stores a year. And so we are going to take full advantage of the economic reality of this situation. And as we go forward two, three, four, five years out even though labor is going up in terms of cost of labor, we believe rents are going down and the economic model of Starbucks is going to be enhanced as a result of this macro situation. And we’re just at the beginning of this trend.

    In other words, if 2017 was the year the “retail bubble burst” as Urban Outfitters CEO Richard Hayne said one year ago, 2018 will be the year when not only the retail sector slides into purgatory, but the deflationary shockwave that is being unleashed as rents finally hit a brick wall, will lead to the next, and far more violent crash in commercial real estate, and the hundreds of billions in debt that prop it.

    Don’t believe us? Just take a walk on Madison between 59 and 79th…

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Today’s News 22nd March 2018

  • US Threatens Sanctions For European Firms Participating In Russian Gas Pipeline Project

    As previewed overnight, the U.S. State Department is warning European corporations that they will likely face penalties if they participate in the construction of Russia’s Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, on the grounds that “the project undermines energy security in Europe“, when in reality Russia has for decades been a quasi-monopolist on European energy supplies and thus has unprecedented leverage over European politics, at least behind the scenes.

    As many people know, we oppose the Nord Stream 2 project, the US government does,” said State Department spokeswoman, Heather Nauert at a Tuesday press briefing. “We believe that the Nord Stream 2 project would undermine Europe’s overall energy security and stability. It would provide Russia [with] another tool to pressure European countries, especially countries such as Ukraine.”

    And speaking of Ukraine, recall that in 2014, shortly after the US State Department facilitated the presidential coup in Ukraine, Joe Biden’s son Hunter joined the board of directors of Burisma, Ukraine’s largest oil and gas company. Surely that was merely a coincidence.

    The project which began in 2015 is a joint venture between Russia’s Gazprom and European partners, including German Uniper, Austria’s OMV, France’s Engie, Wintershall and the British-Dutch multinational Royal Dutch Shell. The pipeline is set to run from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea – doubling the existing pipeline’s capacity of 55 cubic meters per year. 

    Nauert said that Washington may introduce punitive measures against participants in the pipeline project – which could be implemented using a provision in the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).

    “At the State Department, we have spent a lot of time speaking with our partners and allies overseas to explain to them the ramifications of CAATSA and how an individual or a company or a country can run afoul against CAATSA and fall into sanctions,” Nauert said. “We don’t tend to comment on sanctions actions but we’ve been clear that firm steps against the Russian energy export pipeline sector could – if they engage in that kind of business – they could expose themselves to sanctions under CAATSA.” 

    Several EU nations, particularly Germany, have repeatedly expressed interest in participating in Nord Stream 2, however the pipeline has been opposed by several minor bloc nations, including Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania and Hungary. Ukrainian authorities are also staunchly against the project, as it bypasses Ukraine and would impact them monetarily. 

    Of note, CAATSA – approved last Summer, was recently used by the U.S. Treasury Department to impose penalties against 19 Russian individuals and five Russian entities, including Russia’s Federal Security Service and the Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) for their alleged interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential race. 

    ***

    As Alex Gorka of the Strategic Culture Foundation wrote, on March 15, a bipartisan group of 39 senators led by John Barrasso (R-WY) sent a letter to the Treasury Department. 

    They oppose NS2 and are calling on the administration to bury it. Why? They don’t want Russia to be in a position to influence Europe, which would be “detrimental,” as they put it. Their preferred tool to implement this obstructionist policy is the use of sanctions. Thirty-nine out of 100 is a number no president can ignore. Powerful pressure is being put on the administration. Even before the senators wrote their letter, Kurt Volker, the US envoy to Ukraine, had claimed that NS2 was a purely political, not commercial, project.

    No doubt other steps to ratchet up the pressure on Europe will follow.

  • RT Editor-In-Chief Explains "Why We Don't Respect The West Anymore"

    Authored by Margarita Simonyan, editor-in-chief of RT TV channel and MIA “Russia today” via RIA.ru,

    Translated by Scott via The Saker blog,

    Essentially, the West should be horrified not because 76% of Russians voted for Putin, but because this elections have demonstrated that 95% of Russia’s population supports conservative-patriotic, communist and nationalist ideas. That means that liberal ideas are barely surviving among measly 5% of population.

    And that’s your fault, my Western friends. It was you who pushed us into “Russians never surrender” mode.

    I’ve been telling you for a long time to find normal advisers on Russia.

    Sack all those parasites.

    With their short-sighted sanctions, heartless humiliation of our athletes (including athletes with disabilities ), with their “skripals” and ostentatious disregard of the most basic liberal values, like a presumption of innocence, that they manage to hypocritically combined with forcible imposition of ultra-liberal ideas in their own countries, their epileptic mass hysteria, causing in a healthy person a sigh of relief that he lives  in Russia, and not in Hollywood, with their post-electoral mess in the United States, in Germany, and in the Brexit-zone; with their attacks on RT, which they cannot forgive for taking advantage of the freedom of speech and showing to the world how to use it, and it turned out that the freedom of speech never was intended to be used for good, but was invented as an object of beauty, like some sort of crystal mop that shines from afar, but is not suitable to clean your stables, with all your injustice and cruelty, inquisitorial hypocrisy and lies you forced us to stop respecting you. You and your so called “values.”

    We don’t want to live like you live, anymore. For fifty years, secretly and openly, we wanted to live like you, but not any longer.

    We have no more respect for you, and for those amongst us that you support, and for all those people who support you.

    That’s how this 5% came to be.

    For that you only have yourself to blame. And also your Western politicians and analysts, newsmakers and scouts.

    Our people are capable to forgive a lot. But we don’t forgive arrogance, and no normal nation would.

    Your only remaining Empire would be wise to learn history of its allies, all of them are former empires. To learn the ways they lost  their empires. Only because of their arrogance.

    White man’s burden, my ass (in English in the original text – trans.)

    But the only Empire, you have left, ignores history, it doesn’t teach it and refuses to learn it,  meaning that it all will end the way it always does, in such cases.

    In meantime, you’ve pushed us to rally around your enemy. Immediately, after you declared him an enemy, we united around him.

    Before, he was just our President, who could be reelected. Now, he has become our Leader. We won’t let you change this.  And it was you, who created this situation.

    It was you who imposed an opposition between patriotism and liberalism. Although, they shouldn’t be mutually exclusive notions. This false dilemma, created by you, made us to chose patriotism.

    Even though, many of us are really liberals, myself included.

    Get cleaned up, now. You don’t have much time left.

  • "Can We Trust Facebook?" Mark Zuckerberg's Non-Answer Says It All

    CNN’s soft-ball-pitching, always-smiling, but-trying-ever-so-hard-to-seem-serious Laurie Segall sat across from Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg tonight as he broke his silence aboy just WTF happened with regard to the security of ‘our’ data, Cambridge Analytics’ data-mining, Russia, bad-actors, some more Russia, some more meddling, and, oh yeah, data breaches.

    The full interview is below but it was Zuckerberg’s response (or lack of it) to one question, that raises more questions than it answers…

    Segall asked:

    Facebook has asked us to share our data, to share our lives on its platform and it has wanted us to be transparent, and people don’t feel like they’ve received that same amount of transparency. They’re wondering what’s happening to their data. Can they trust Facebook?

    Zuckerberg replied, in the same manner as his non-apology statement earlier in the day, by waffling endlessly over his prescribed talking points and yet failing entirely to answer Segall’s simple question…

    “Yeah, so one of the most important things that I think we need to do here is make sure that we tell everyone whose data was affected by one of these rogue apps, right?” he said.

    “And we’re going to do that. We’re going to build a tool where anyone can go and see if their data was a part of this.”

    “So the 50 million people that were impacted, they will be able to tell if they were impacted by this?” Segall asked.

    “Yeah – we’re going to be even conservative on that. We may not have all of the data in our system today. So anyone whose data might have been affected by this, we’re going to make sure that we tell. And going forward, when we identify apps that are similarly doing sketchy things, we’re going to make sure that we tell people then too, right? That’s definitely something that looking back on this, you know, I regret that we didn’t do at the time, and I think we got that wrong, and we’re committed to getting that right going forward.”

    CNN’s Anderson Cooper describe Zuckerberg as “perhaps the most powerful man in the world,” noting that his platform is capable in influencing elections and perhaps even wars… little dramatic Anderson…

    Fwd to 1:15 for the question (and non-answer)…

    Any wiser? Can we trust Facebook?

    Perhaps this clip from 2009, when The BBC asked Mark Zuckerberg if Facebook would ever sell personal user data.

    His answer? “No! Of course not.”

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    Actions once again speaking louder than words.

    All of which perhaps explains the plunge in the odds of Zuckerberg running for President…

  • If US Plans A Terrorist False Flag Chemical Attack To Justify Bombing Syria, Russia Says It Will Respond

    Authored by Fedrico Pieraccini via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    Events in Syria increasingly resemble a direct confrontation between major powers rather than a proxy war. Lavrov’s words, delivered a few days ago, reveal the critical phase of international relations the world is going through, with a potentially devastating conflict ready to ignite in the Middle East region.

    An alarming warning by Sergei Lavrov and Chief of the Russian General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, was announced via the RT broadcaster and several Russian media. The content is explosive and deserving of the widest possible dissemination. Gerasimov claimed that Moscow had “reliable information that fighters are preparing to stage the use by government troops of chemical weapons against the civilian population.” He alleged that the US intends to accuse Assad’s troops of using chemical weapons against civilians, and then “carry out a bombing attack” on Damascus.

    Gerasimov warned that Russia would “take retaliatory measures” if the US targeted areas where its military are located in the Syrian capital. “Russian military advisers, representatives of the Center for Reconciliation and members of military police” are currently in the Syrian capital, Gerasimov said, adding that in the event that the lives of Russian military personnel are placed in danger, the Russian Armed Forces will respond with certain measure to both “missiles” and their “launchers”. A few hours earlier, Lavrov responded, “criticizing the remarks by the US envoy to the UN, Nikki Haley, about Washington’s readiness to “bomb Damascus and even the presidential palace of Bashar Assad, regardless [of the] presence of the Russian representatives there.” “It is an absolutely irresponsible statement,” the Russian top diplomat added.

    The words of Gerasimov are even more dire, since he explains how the United States and its allies are preparing the ground to justify an attack on Syria. According to reports, terrorists stationed in Al-Tanf (an illegal US military base in Syria) received 20 tons of chlorine gas and detonators, disguised as cigarette packs, in order to attack in an area under the control of the terrorists that is densely inhabited by civilians. What would then happen is already obvious, with the White Helmets (AKA Al-Qaeda) and mainstream media ready to broadcast the images of the victims of the attack, tugging at the heartstrings of Western viewers otherwise unaware of the conspiracy being played out.

    Efforts to frame Russia have already reached the highest alert levels, with the false-flag poisoning of the Russian spy in the United Kingdom. It seems that there is a significant effort by the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Germany to provoke a military confrontation with Moscow.

    How else are we able to interpret threats from Macron to strike Damascus, together with his ominous advice to foreign journalists not to go to Damascus in the coming days and, for those already there, to leave the capital immediately? There has even been chatter within diplomatic circles that suggest that UN personnel are leaving Damascus. This could be psychological warfare, or it could be a prelude to war. With the stakes so high, we cannot afford to ignore any detail, even if it may be disinformation. The American attack seems imminent, with mounting signs of movements of American and Russian warships in the Mediterranean in attack formation.

    Russian military representatives have reiterated that in the event of an attack, they will respond by hitting both the missiles launched as well as the ships from which the missiles were launched. Things are getting pretty dicey, and the risk of a direct confrontation between the United States and the Russian Federation are rising with every passing hour. The transfer of numerous US aircraft from Incirlik, Turkey, to Al-Azrak, Jordan, is another indication of preparations for an attack, since the forces moved to Jordan are close to the Al-Tanf base. The proposed strategy could involve an assault on the city of Daraa, for the purposes of securing the borders between Syria and Jordan and Syria and Israel.

    The warnings raised by Lavrov and Gerasimov appear unprecedented, given that they detail a plan already set in course, evidently approved at the highest levels and aimed at provoking and justifying an attack on Syria; and attack that would encompass the Russian forces in Syria. Tensions continue to grow, following Russia’s shooting down of a drone by two surface-to-air missiles launched from its Hmeimim Air Base. Moscow has even deployed to the Mediterranean the Admiral Grigorovich-class frigate Admiral Essen and the Krivak II-class anti-submarine frigate Pytivyy. Both are prepared for anti-ship and anti-submarine operations. Sources claim that this deployment was planned some time ago and is part of a routine deployment of the Russian navy. But during such a delicate moment, it pays to focus on every detail. Without resorting to excessive alarmism, if Lavrov said that “the movements of the warships of the United States and its allies in the Mediterranean seem compatible with the strategy of using this chemical attack to justify an attack on the Syrian Arab army and government installations”, then it is reasonable to speculate on whether the Russian ships are moving in to the area to counter any provocations.

    There are two fundamental flaws in the reasoning of US policy-makers and the US military establishment. They are convinced that an American demonstration of strength (involving a large number of cruise missile launched against Syria through a significant involvement of aircraft carriers as well as bombers) would stun Russia into passivity. Furthermore, US military generals are convinced that Syria and Russia do not have the ability to defend themselves for an extended period of time. They seem to be fooling themselves with their own propaganda. As their Israeli colleagues have already learned, such an assumption is mistaken. While the idea that a high level of firepower would meet with some kind of success, the possibility of a response from Syrian and Russian forces remains. And this possibility seems not to have been given sufficient weight by the US and her allies.

    How would the American military and the Trump presidency react to a US warship being sunk by anti-ship missiles? It would only serve to demonstrate how vulnerable American naval forces are when confronted with such advanced weapons. It would represent a tremendous shock for the US military, possibly the biggest shock since the end of WWII. What would Trump and the generals in charge do? They would respond with further bombardment of Russian forces, leaving themselves open to a devastating Russian response. The conflict could escalate within the space of a few minutes, leading to a situation where there could be no possible winners.

    The normal reasoning I employ when considering total annihilation is placed to one side when US special forces deliver 20 tons of chlorine gas to Al Qaeda terrorists in Syria order to execute a false flag for the purposes of blaming Damascus and Moscow. If we connect this event to what is currently happening in the United Kingdom, and the hysteria in the United States surrounding alleged Russian hacking during the American elections, we can understand just how much international relations have deteriorated. This situation is reminiscent of Ukraine in 2015. Ukrainian forces suffered repeated defeats at the hands of the Donbass resistance, being contained in the thousands in different “cauldrons. Within NATO headquarters in Brussels during that time, there were open discussion over sending a contingent to support Ukrainian troops. The plan, however, was never realized, given the possibility of direct confrontation in Ukraine between the Russian Federation and NATO.

    In recent months, the possibility of a war on the Korean Peninsula has also been evoked and perhaps simultaneously averted by the unpredictable consequences for both Seoul and the American forces in the region.

    In Syria, the approach of Washington and its diplomatic and military emissaries seems more reckless and less tied to a chain of command where the buck stops at the American president. It seems that the US deep state in Syria has a greater and more hidden control over American forces, sabotaging every agreement made between Moscow and Washington. We saw this during the Obama presidency, where the US Air Force bombed government troops in Deir ez-Zor only a few hours after a ceasefire had been reached between Lavrov and Secretary of State Kerry.

    The grave circumstance about which we write seem to be without precedent, seeming as they do to lead towards a direct confrontation between nuclear-armed powers. Alas, in such circumstances, we can only hope for the best but prepare for the worst; we can only wait to read on the mainstream media notifications of the latest chemical attack in Syria. We can only hope that there is someone in Washington retaining enough sense to factor in the devastating consequences of an attack on Damascus and the Russian forces in the region.

    Never before has the region been on the verge of such an explosion as in the next few hours — as a result of the typically reckless actions of the United States.

  • Caught On Video: Houthi Rebels Shoot Down Another Saudi F-15 Fighter Over Yemen

    On March 21, the Houthi insurgency in Yemen, also known as the Houthi rebellion, reportedly shot down a Saudi Arabian McDonnell Douglas F-15 Eagle, in the northwestern region of war-torn Yemen, cited Sputnik.

    A source within the Yemeni air defenses told Saba News Agency that Houthi rebels launched a surface-to-air missile (SAM), and “managed to hit an F-15 aircraft belonging to the aggression [Saudi Arabia], carrying out criminal and hostile raids over the city of Saada.”

    The source confirmed to Saba that Houthi rebels carried out “monitoring and targeting of the aircraft [F-15] with the latest defense technology developed locally successfully.”

    This alleged footage had surfaced on social media of the moment when Houthi rebels launched a surface-to-air missile (SAM) — striking the F-15 fighter jet, which caused the warplane to erupt in flames at high altitudes.

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    Meanwhile, the spokesman of the Saudi Arabian-led coalition forces, Colonel Turki al-Maliki said the warplane was struck at 15:48 local time (1248 GMT) by a surface-to-air missile (SAM) launched from Saada airport camp in Yemen. Al-Maliki noted that the plane received minimal damage from the strike and managed to return to a Saudi Arabian airbase.

    Al-Maliki stressed that the surface-to-air missile (SAM) was “not included in the Yemeni government arms arsenal…and that this is another proof of Iranian weapons smuggling to the Shiite rebels in Yemen.”

    Three years into the 2015 Saudi-led invasion of Yemen, Iran has long denied smuggling weapons to the Yemeni rebels. According to SouthFront, their team of experts alleges the unidentified warplane was hit by “what appears to be a Soviet-made R-27T missile.”

    A video released by the Houthis media wing clearly showed an unidentified warplane being hit by what appears to be a Soviet made R-27T missile. The Saudi-led collation revealed last November that the he Houthis had managed to turn Soviet-made R-27T air-to-air missiles into ground-to-air missiles.

    The R-27T is guided by infrared homing, and has the “fire and forget” feature, which makes it easy to convert it into a ground-to-air missile. The R-27T’s range is 70km when it’s launched from air. Nonetheless, the missile will have a shorter range when the missile it is launched from the ground. The Saudi-led coalition has not commented on the incident yet, likely because the warplane managed to return to its home airbase or crashed in an area under the coalition control.

    So far in 2018, this is the second time the Houthi rebels have claimed they have struck an F-15 or Saudi Arabian-linked warplane over the skies of Yemen. On Janurary 08, Houthi rebels released dramatic footage of a surface-to-air missile (SAM) downing an F-15 fighter jet, though Saudi media denied the report and said it crashed due to technical problems…

    On Tuesday, President Donald Trump commended Saudi Arabia’s defense acquisitions as he met with Mohammed bin Salman (MbS), at the White House — and pushed for even more.

    “Saudi Arabia is a very wealthy nation, and they’re going to give the United States some of that wealth, hopefully, in the form of jobs, in the form of the purchase of the finest military equipment anywhere in the world,” Trump said.

    It has been increasingly evident that U.S. defense sales to Saudi Arabia are a dominant force in allowing the Saudi Arabian-led intervention in Yemen to flourish.

    As President Trump becomes the most excellent salesman the military-industrial complex has ever seen, perhaps the Saudis should reevaluate their F-15 purchases, as a rogue underfunded rebel group in Yemen has managed to damage two of their American made warplanes in less than three months.

    Interesting enough, as we described above, it is possible that a Russian manufactured missile struck an American made fighter jet over the skies of Yemen.

  • Army Major: "Unmitigated Failure" – Operation Iraqi Freedom, 15 Years Later

    Authored by Major Danny Sjursen via AntiWar.com,

    After waging an ill-advised war of choice in Iraq, the U.S. military remains ensnared in Greater Mesopotamia…

    We were always caught in the middle. We still are.

    As a young man, a new lieutenant, and a true believer, I once led a US Army scout platoon just south of Baghdad. It was autumn 2006, and my platoon patrolled – mainly aimlessly – through the streets and surrounding fields of Salman Pak. To our north lay the vast Shia heartland of East Baghdad, to our south and east, the disgruntled and recently disempowered Sunnis of the rural hinterlands. Both sides executed teenagers caught on the wrong side of town, leaving the bodies for us to find. Each side sought to win American favor; both tried to kill us.

    It was a battle of attrition; a war for land, yes, but more importantly a war for the mind. Each day, the platoon had the distinct honor to drive our HMMWVs past the impressive ruins of an ancient Persian (Iranian) empire – the Sassanid. Some 1500 years earlier, Salman Pak was known as Ctesiphon and was the populous capital of a powerful civilization. The Iraqi Shia were proud of this past; the local Sunnis were not. Sunni insurgents still called the Shia “Sassanids,” or “Persians,” and they meant it as a pejorative. History was present and alive in Iraq. Still, few of my young soldiers knew – or cared – about any of this. They merely sought survival.

    The Sunni fighters, once ascendant under Saddam Hussein’s regime, were backed by Saudi Arabia and other sympathetic Gulf states.

    In nighttime raids and daytime searches, we found Saudi “Wahhabi” Islamist propaganda on the floor of car bomb factories. Back then, the local Sunni insurgents called themselves TWJ (Tawhid al Jihad – Monotheism and Holy War). This group, a nonfactor at the time of the 9/11 attacks, would rebrand several times in the ensuing years: Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI), and, finally, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS).

    The Shia militiamen, JAM (Jaysh al Mahdi – The Mahdi Army), were backed by another regional player: Iran. They utilized their demographic plurality and fought the Sunnis for power in the new, US-imposed Iraqi “democracy;” occasionally, they found time to shatter our HMMWVs (and our bodies) with Iranian supplied explosive penetrators. The US Army battled each side, and feared them both.

    Salman Pak, my own little war, was a microcosm of a failed policy. When the Bush-Cheney-Rumsfeld cabal of neoconservatives (along with a core of complicit “liberals” on Capitol Hill) collaborated to topple Saddam, the US became the proud owner of a fractured, ethno-sectarian basket case. The invasion and occupation of Iraq inserted the US military square in the middle of the ongoing regional proxy war between (Shia) Iran and (Sunni) Saudi Arabia.

    Decades earlier, the US had actually backed Saddam’s Iraq in its war with Iran (1980-88), utilizing Iraqi troops as a buffer between the Islamic Republic and the oilfields of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. In March 2003, in the ever-so-euphemistically titled Operation IRAQI FREEDOM (OIF), a war which was never a vital national security interest, the US government placed America’s cherished servicemen squarely in the middle of two nefarious regional competitors.

    The story has been told so many times, that the tragedy doesn’t warrant a full recounting. Here’s the short version: poor intelligence and dubious evidence was used by gang of neocon ideologues to sell Americans on the need for regime change in Iraq (a country that had not been involved in the 9/11 attacks). Frightened, naïve, and ill-informed, the American people – and esteemed outlets like the New York Times – went along for the ride. We were told it’d be easy (a “cakewalk”) and self-financing. It was neither.

    A civil war broke out. Tens of thousands of civilians and thousands of US troopers died. By the time I arrived, in October 2006, the place was aflame. Fear not, we were told: Bush and his new, brainy general – some Petraeus guy – would “surge” troops and win the day after all. Violence did – briefly – decline; the Iraqi government, however, failed to garner legitimacy. Still, we were told we’d won. The last American soldiers marched out in December 2011. A day later, the Shia prime minister tried to arrest the Sunni vice president. Sectarian relations soured again until a new version of an old group – ISIS – preyed on Sunni resentment and conquered a third of Iraq in 2014. The war hawks – Dems and Republicans – on Capitol Hill squawked, and soon enough US planes, then boots, were back in Iraq.

    It has been 15 years since OIF, and there – in Iraq and Syria – US servicemen remain, wedged between Saudi-backed Sunni Islamists, and Iranian-backed Shia militiamen. Some 4500 American soldiers have already died, with upwards of 30,000 more wounded. And, like a bad sitcom, the US military stillspends most of its time fighting spin-off wars (Syria, Iraq 2.0, ISIS, Yemen) of the original Iraq disaster. That ill-fated farce of an invasion either created the conditions, or exacerbated the existing tensions, which inform today’s regional wars.

    If bin Laden himself had authored it, he could hardly have written a more dreadful quagmire for the US military. Osama, in fact, didn’t initially expect the Iraq invasion, though once it bogged the Americans down, he labeled that country “a point of attraction and the restorer of our energies.” Chalk up a big V for Al Qaeda. I’m convinced that’s part of the reason there remain so many 9/11 “truthers:” because the “storm” seems so “perfect.” If the goal of the neocons and military-industrial complex was – and I don’t personally subscribe to this – to engulf the US in self-perpetuating forever wars in the Mideast, they sure scripted it perfectly. This is the stuff which feeds conspiratorial thinking.

    The “war on terror” – particularly its crown jewel, IRAQI FREEDOM – was, and is, ultimately counterproductive. It makes enemies faster than even the world’s greatest military can kill them. It feeds itself; it morphs; it grows; it, in the prescient words of bin Laden, “restores” Islamist energies.

    America, the guileless behemoth, brimming with hubris, somehow cannot seeit. The sheer irrationality of the whole endeavor borders – 15 years later – on the absurd. The only real winners in Iraq have been a chauvinist brand Iranian Shi’ism, and the trademark Wahhabi Sunni Islamism of Saudi Arabia. Neither is a true friend to US interests or values. Neither cares whether US soldiers live or die. Each has its own agenda and plays US policymakers and generals like so many fiddles. The rational move for America is to opt out; do less; and walk away before sinking farther into the next quagmire. Unfortunately, compressed so narrowly between adversarial forces, and obtuse as ever, American “statesman” can’t see the way out.

    These wars won’t end well for the United States, just as matters didn’t end well for my platoon, wedged, as it was, between micro-factions of these same adversaries: Saudi Arabia and Iran.

    The Sunni precursors of ISIS shot Sergeant Ty Dejane through the spine – he’s still in a wheel chair. The Shia militiamen aligned with Iran exploded a massive bomb which unleashed shrapnel that tore apart three other young men. Sergeant “Ducks” Duzinskas lost most of an arm. Sergeant Alex Fuller and Specialist Mike Balsley lay dead. They never knew what hit them, just as our platoon never knew who, or what, exactly, we were fighting.

    My boys were sacrificed on the altar of American hubris. That’s the war I remember, and the one the US still fights – futilely – in the Fertile Crescent. Perhaps the citizenry should ponder that… before the next escalation in Iraq.

  • PBOC Raises Interest Rate On Open Market Operations

    Moments after the Fed did as expected when it raised rates by 25bps, we – along with most other central bank watchers – made a prediction: now it was China’s turn.

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    And since in recent years, the PBOC has not hiked the main benchmark rate but engaged in “targeted” tightening using the various reverse-repo facilities, we had to wait until today’s open market operation was unveiled.

    This was somewhat problematic as the PBOC only did a partial reverse repo, skipping the 14, 28 and 63-day operations, and only injecting liquidity – some 10BN yuan worth – via 7-Day reverse repos (in the process draining 150Bn yuan). Which meant that the only instrument that could see its rate changed today, was the 7-Day RR.

    And just like on December 13, hours after the last Fed rate hike, when it hiked the 7-Day reverse repo rate by 5bps from 2.45% to 2.50%, so moments ago the PBOC once again raised the 7-Day repo rate from 2.50% to 2.55%, continuing the tradition of raising reverse repo rates in response to Fed rate hikes.

    We expect proportional increases on the other reverse repo – 14, 28 and 63-day – tenors.

    Commenting on the move, the PBOC said the rate hike was in line with market expectations, adding that the open market rate hike will “help limit irrational financing and stabilize overall leverage ratio.”

    Curiously, even this modest increase came as a surprise to some watchers, who noted that the PBOC no longer needs to follow the Fed moves tick for tick as the recent strength of the yuan means there’s less need to protect the currency. That was the view of Haitong Securities, which ahead of today’s rate hike noted that even if the PBOC raises open market operation rates (which it did), “the scale will be limited and impact on market rates minor because they’ve been a lot higher than official rates.”

    Meanwhile, as discussed recently, total social financing growth  continues to decelerate…

    … and inflation remains under pressure. And speaking of China’s currency, following today’s dollar plunge, the PBOC predictably fixed the Yuan at 6.3167, some 0.4% stronger vs Wednesday’s 6.3396, the biggest move since February 27.

    Followign the rate hike, just like in the US, Chinese shares fell, with the Shanghai Composite falling -0.2%, wiping out an earlier 0.2% gain. If the SHCOMP closes red we wonder if Marko Kolanovic will blame the drop in Chinese stocks on a rogue snowstorm over the Gobi desert.

  • More California Cities Seek To Defy Sanctuary City Laws Los Alamitos Rebellion

    Several California cities are planning to defy Jerry Brown’s “Sanctuary City” laws, following Monday’s decision by the quiet Orange County town of Los Alamitos to disregard several state-wide statutes preventing, among other things, cooperation between local law enforcement and federal immigration authorities.  

    As reported previously, Los Alamitos’ city leadership passed an ordinance 4-1 on Monday, and instructed the city attorney to file an amicus brief in the DOJ lawsuit against California’s Immigrant Worker Protection Act (HB-450), the California Values Act (SB-54), and the Inspection and Review of Facilities Housing Federal Detainees Law (AB-103).

    Mayor Troy Edgar joined council members Richard Murphy and Shelly Hasselbrink in support of the new local law – noting that California’s sanctuary law puts them at odds with the U.S. constitution, while councilman Mark Chirco voted against it – suggesting it would lead to litigation.

    Following the Monday decision, the Orange County Register reports that several other cities – and in fact the entire county itself, may be on the verge of enacting similar laws to defy the state’s Sanctuary Laws. 

    The County of Orange and several cities in Southern California soon might join Los Alamitos in its bid to opt out of a controversial state law that limits cooperation with federal immigration officials.

    Officials with the county as well as leaders in Aliso Viejo and Buena Park said Tuesday they plan to push for various versions of the anti-sanctuary ordinance approved in Los Alamitos late Monday by a 4-1 vote of that city council.

    Immigration advocates said Los Alamitos and cities and counties that follow its opt-out ordinance will be violating state law and at risk of litigation.

    But Los Alamitos’ anti-sanctuary push also received wide attention in conservative media, and gained support from those who don’t agree with California’s protective stance on all immigrants, regardless of legal status.

    Of note, while California’s Bay Area and Los Angeles are notably quite liberal, there are conservative enclaves all over the state according to the California Secretary of State (via the Sacramento Bee). 

    Voters affiliated with conservative parties outnumber voters affiliated with liberal parties in about 70 of the state’s 200 largest cities and counties. Yorba Linda and Newport Beach are the state’s most conservative cities, with conservative-affiliated voters outnumbering liberal-affiliated voters by a 2-to-1 margin.

    Californians affiliated with conservative parties – Republicans, Libertarians and American Independents – today comprise about 25% of the state’s registered voters, according to new data from the California Secretary of State.

    State voters affiliated with liberal parties – Democrats, Greens and Peace and Freedom party members – make up about 45% of the electorate. Californians with no party preference comprise 25% of voters and third-party voters make up the other 5%.

  • Not The Fed's Fault: Kolanovic Blames Stock Sell Off On "Severe Snowstorm"

    When it comes to the Fed’s quarterly (and soon monthly) press conferences, it’s widely expected that the Fed chair will manipulate and goalseek the message to reach a desired market outcome. After all, if the past ten years have taught us something, it is that the Fed only cares about the market reaction and micromanaging equities. And to do that, the chair will do and say anything, obfuscating – in the best Alan Greenspan tradition, putting the audience to sleep – as only Janet Yellen can, and generally lying as much as needed to give traders the comfort that the Fed is “with them.”

    The problem is when research analysts start doing the same, and instead of at least pretending to be intellectually honest, they steamroll through the facts and create a fabricated version of reality, padded by hubris, meant to validated their version of the world, no matter how wrong.

    We are sad to note that JPM’s head quant Marko Kolanovic has done just that tonight, and in a note meant to validate his recent uber-bullish outlook, ‘explains’ that the stock reaction to the Fed is not what it should have been – even if that’s not the case for other asset classes, which slumped admirably, i.e. just as Kolanovic had expected, and suggest a “near-term goldilocks environment. As for equities, here Kolanovic finds offence because the “price action of the S&P 500 was not coherent”, i.e., they also went down: “first we saw a strong rally and reversal, then another (smaller) rally and reversal, with the market ending slightly down.”

    But if bonds and FX were right and stocks were wrong, and the Fed was dovish, something has to explain this divergence in reactions, right?

    Yup, and according to Kolanovic – the most respected quant at JPMorgan – the answer is…. snow.

    We are not joking: the man who for the past 3 years has been explaining how the market is almost entirely controlled by algos, latent positioning, and generally non-human reactions, stakes his reputation – to use a Gartman term – that it was the lack of carbon-based traders, that spoiled the market response Kolanovic had been hoping for.

    Here is his note.

    Bond yields went lower, USD weakened, and the yield curve steepened – all of which are positive (dovish) signals for US equities

    As we suggested in our previous note (here), fears of the Fed delivering a hawkish message did not materialize. 2018 dots were not revised higher, and the importance of the 2019/2020 dots was downplayed by Powell (realistically, no one can have visibility 2 years out). Bond yields went lower, USD weakened, and the yield curve steepened – all of which are positive (dovish) signals for US equities. Furthermore, there was no significant change in inflation expectations and the growth outlook, alleviating recent equity markets concerns. This outcome is a positive and indicates that equity investors could expect a near term goldilocks environment.

    In contrast to the Fed, price action of the S&P 500 was not coherent – first we saw a strong rally and reversal, then another (smaller) rally and reversal, with the market ending slightly down. We note that this happened on very low volumes (particularly in light of the importance and anticipation of the catalyst).

    This was likely the result of a severe snowstorm affecting the US northeast and incomplete market participation (e.g. it was one of the lowest futures contract volumes on any Fed announcement days). Market direction was further confused by the initial reaction of bonds and rotation out of tech and momentum stocks, inflows into small cap, value and high volatility stocks, and covering of high short interest stocks.

    Well, yeah, it’s always something else when the market doesn’t do as you had expected. And while by now it is all too clear that Marko got one or more taps on the shoulder to toe the JPM bullish line no questions asked, here it is once again.

    We maintain our positive near term view on US equities. Our view is that the path of recovery is likely to mimic the August 2015 selloff that was also driven by systematic selling (Figure below compares equity price action in the aftermath of August 2015 and February 2018), as market volatility subsides (prompting re-leveraging of systematic  strategies), continuation of strong buyback demand, and focus shifting to strong upcoming earnings season.

    At least Kolanovic did not again warn that Trump faces impeachment if he dares to launch a trade war with China (which he will do tomorrow at 12:30pm), and risk sending the precious S&P lower.

    And now, those who are eager to bet on whose reputation is torn apart first: that of Gartman, who last week made a “watershed call”  that the market has hit all time highs, or Kolanovic, who recently predicted that the market will keep rising to new records, you can make your bets now.

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Today’s News 21st March 2018

  • German Spy Agency Admits North Korean Rockets Can Hit Europe

    Amid a relative detente in US-North Korea relations, Germany’s foreign intelligence agency told lawmakers that North Korean rockets tipped with a nuclear warhead now have the capacity to strike Germany and central Europe.

     

    In a closed-door meeting, Deutsche Welle reports that BND Deputy Director Ole Diehl told members of parliament there is “certainty” that North Korea could now “reach Europe and Germany with its missiles,” according to the Bild am Sonntag newspaper, which first reported the briefing, citing participants.

    Diehl also told lawmakers that the BND considers talks between North and South Korea a positive step.

    There was no immediate comment from the BND in response to the media reports.

    Meanwhile, negotiations were set to convene in Finland between a senior North Korean official and representatives of the United States and South Korea, according to the South Korean Yonhap news agency. Over the weekend, officials from the US, Japan and South Korea met in Seoul to discuss the complete denuclearization of the peninsula.

  • A World War Might Sound Crazy, But It Could Be America's Last Act Of Desperation

    Authored by Darius Shahtahmasebi via TheAntiMedia.org,

    Though some have been warning about the catastrophic potential for a third global conflict for years, it wasn’t until recently that these warnings became more mainstream. The calamitous nature of the violence in Syria – which has one nuclear power defending a government that has been the target of a regime change operation led by the world’s superpower – combined with 2017’s threats of “fire and fury” against another state intently pursuing a nuclear weapons supply of its own, has pushed the issue of a third world war directly into the public discourse.

    While certain hotspots throughout the Middle East, Asia, and Eastern Europe (i.e. Ukraine) have seen some notable escalations in the last few years, a direct conflict between Russia and the United States is still yet to emerge. That’s because the idea of a third world war in today’s world is completely insane. If the two countries that currently possess the world’s greatest supplies of nuclear weapons go to war, there may not be a world left for the victors to inhabit after the war is done, thereby making it an unthinkable proposal.

    Then again, the U.S. did just recently bomb a significant number of Russian-linked forces in Syria, reportedly killing scores of them. The targets of these air strikes were also predominantly Iranian-backed militias (just in case there weren’t enough state actors already involved in this ongoing conflict).

    Speaking of Iran, Donald Trump recently fired Rex Tillerson as secretary of state and immediately appointed CIA director Mike Pompeo to replace him. Pompeo is a notable anti-Iran hawk who will almost certainly go further than Tillerson was ever prepared to go with regard to the Iranian nuclear accord, a deal Pompeo believes is “disastrous.”

    There are also reports now emerging that Donald Trump is planning to oust his national security advisor, General H.R. McMaster. McMaster originally replaced anti-Iran war hawk Michael Flynn, but apparently, McMaster’s non-stop allegations against Iran were not enough to please Trump.

    McMaster was not on board with Trump’s attempt to completely derail the Iranian nuclear deal.

    One should bear in mind that when Donald Trump made the decision to strike the Syrian government in April of last year in what amounted to one of the year’s most important and over-publicized geopolitical events, it was McMaster who drew up the strike plan options and presented them to Trump to choose from. If this is a man not hawkish enough for Trump’s administration, his looming removal from the administration is a worrying sign of what’s to come.

    Donald Trump’s Nuclear Posture Review entails that, as Katrina vanden Heuvel noted in an article published in the Washington Post:

    “The United States reserves the right to unleash nuclear weapons first in ‘extreme circumstances’ to defend the ‘vital interests’ not only of the United States but also of its ‘allies and partners’ — a total of some 30 countries. ‘Extreme circumstances,’ the review states explicitly, include ‘significant non-nuclear attacks,’ including conventional attacks on ‘allied or partner civilian population or infrastructure.’ The United States also maintains a ‘portion of its nuclear forces’ on daily alert, with the option of launching those forces ‘promptly.’ [emphasis added]

    Considering that a former analyst for the Council on Foreign Relations, Micah Zenko, just warned that Pentagon officials are actively searching for a “big war” against Russia and China, the trajectory we are currently on starts to make a lot more sense.

    In other parts of the world, we are witnessing a new era of hostilities towards Russia. The debacle taking place in the U.K. right now, which has seen allegations of a Russian chemical attack on British soil, has prompted the U.K., U.S., France, and Germany to band together and condemn Russia for something that hasn’t even been conclusively investigated yet.

    After years of constantly being painted as the enemy, Russia just declared via Twitter that a “Cold War II” has begun, and who can blame them?

    A third world war might sound crazy, but it is only crazy if we fail to understand the desperation that continues to plague the men in suits who pull the strings guiding American foreign policy. Consider that the Syrian government, with Russian and Iranian backing, has managed to stabilize significant parts of the country despite all odds so that refugees can return home safely. It should be clear that the best way to solve the Syrian crisis is to discontinue America’s regime change policy in Syria and allow the people of Syria to normalize their own lives without Washington’s interference. Yet, after seven years of brutal violence, the U.S. still refuses to admit defeat in Syria. If anything, the U.S. has now officially set its sights on directly combatting Iranian influence in the country, raising the potential for significant escalations.

    Maybe, just maybe, the U.S. is that desperate. Apparently, the U.S. has to remain in Syria out of necessity. It cannot afford to sit on the sidelines as Russia re-emerges as the major power broker in the region, eating up all the major contracts coming out of Syria (together with Iran) as it looks to poach American allies left, right, and center.

    Additionally, Russia recently warned the U.S. that it will not tolerate Washington’s aggressive attacks on the Syrian government and will respond with strikes of their own should the U.S. military threaten Russian personnel. One should expect that eventually, there will be a point where Russia will no longer allow these attacks to go unanswered.

    As America’s power and influence wane, the time will come for both Russia and China to make their mark on the global stage. Just on a side note, it should come as no surprise that Trump’s nominated ambassador to Australia, Adm. Harry Harris, is a known anti-China war hawk who recently warned Congress to prepare for a war with China.

    Why should we need to prepare for a war with China? Who talks and thinks like that? A nation on a slow and inevitable decline that cannot refuse to admit defeat in almost any battle theater since World War II, that’s who.

    Realistically, nobody wants a third world war, but as the U.S. increasingly thrashes to maintain its control of the global financial markets, its network of over 1,000 bases worldwide, and its status as the world’s global policemen, a third world war may be Washington’s only hope at staying afloat as the world’s top power.

  • US And South Korea Will Resume Joint Military Drills In April

    Barely a month after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he “couldn’t rule out” US forces physically boarding ships caught violating US sanctions against North Korea, RT  is reporting that, despite the recent thaw in relations between the US, South Korea and North Korea, the annual “Foal Eagle” and “Key Resolve” joint military exercises involving US and South Korea forces will begin April 1.

    Signs of a breakthrough in North-South relations ahead of last month’s Winter Olympics prompted the US to postpone the drills, which typically elicit a vehement condemnation from the North, as well as threats of retaliation.

    But now that the Games are over, the Pentagon said the planned drills will resume as scheduled – despite North Korea’s offer to freeze its missile and nuclear tests ahead of a meeting between Kim Jong Un and President Donald Trump, which Trump hastily agreed to earlier this month.

    South Korea’s Ministry of National Defense confirmed as much to Yonhap.

    “The practice is slated to begin April 1, and it will be conducted on a similar size in previous years,” the Ministry of National Defense said, according to Yonhap.

    The exercises are expected to conclude toward the end of May, the Pentagon said.

    “Secretary of Defense James Mattis and the Republic of Korea Minister of National Defense Song Young-moo have agreed to resume the annual combined exercises including Foal Eagle and Key Resolve which were de-conflicted with the schedule of the Olympic Games. The exercises are expected to resume April 1, 2018, at a scale similar to that of the previous years,” Pentagon spokesman Colonel Rob Manning said in a statement.

    The North Koreans have been notified about the drills by the United Nations Command. The Pentagon emphasized that the drills are not a response to a specific North Korean action.

    “Our combined exercises are defense-oriented and there is no reason for North Korea to view them as a provocation,” Lieutenant Colonel Christopher Logan, a Pentagon spokesman, said in a statement.

    Lieutenant Colonel Christopher Logan, a Pentagon spokesman, confirmed that the drills would involve about 23,000 troops and 300,000 members of the South Korean military.

    After a round of successful negotiations with South Korea, Kim sent a letter that was hand-delivered to Trump by a South Korean delegation inviting him to engage in direct talks.

    Korea

    Trump agreed to meet with Kim “sometime in May”, ignoring pleas from diplomats and Pentagon officials that honoring the request would “legitimize” North Korea in the eyes of the world.

    South Korea has assured the US that the North is “committed to denuclearization” of the Korean peninsula. Until this latest salvo, the North had insisted that it would never give up its nukes under any circumstances, while the US insisted that denuclearization would be a precondition for any lifting of sanctions.

    Surprisingly, the North Korean leader suggested he’d be willing to countenance the latest round of military drills, even as the US offered no concessions in return.

    * * *

    A North Korea expert at the University of Chicago warned Tuesday that the US shouldn’t believe the North when it says it would consider giving up its nukes, according to Yonhap.

    “North Korea is not going to give up its nuclear weapons and China will not push North Koreans to do so. The reason is that in international politics, you could never trust anybody because you cannot be certain of what their intentions are,” said  John Mearsheimer, a professor at the University of Chicago, during a lecture in Seoul.

    So, what do you think? Is North Korea trying to lure Trump into a diplomatic trap with the ultimate aim of embarrassing the US? Or have the many rounds of economic sanctions imposed against the regime finally started to work?

  • Yes, Gun Confiscation Just Happened In Florida, And It Will Happen Nationwide

    Authored by Jeremiah Johnson via SHTFplan.com,

    For all those individuals who claimed door-to-door gun confiscation wouldn’t happen? Well, it just did… in Florida.  The report came out on 3/16/18, entitled It Begins: Florida Resident’s Firearms, Ammunition Confiscated Under Gun Control Law.

    Yes, here it is: Here it starts.

    Apparently, the individual is a 56-year-old man who has not committed a crime: he just falls into a category of people that could “pose a harm to the public good.” Here’s an excerpt:

    The Orlando Sentinel reports that “four firearms and 267 rounds of ammunition” were taken from the man, and he was “taken to a hospital for involuntary psychiatric treatment.”

    The seized firearms were listed as “a Ruger LCP .380 pistol, an M2 Mauser .45 pistol, a Charter Arms .357 mag snub nose revolver and a Mossberg 500 12-gauge shotgun.”

    The paper notes that “the civil ruling removing his access to guns and ammunition was granted under … new legislation — which permits confiscating guns from people who have not been committed but are deemed a potential risk to themselves or others, according to the order signed by Broward’s Chief Judge Jack Tuter.

    What’s even worse is that they have incorporated wonderful elements of Communism, namely stoolpigeons and snitches within the family or by order of a judge. Yes, Communism is that system that many deny, along with Marxism, that concentrated on removing undesirables and nonconformists by sending them to psychiatric wards until they displayed “correct thinking.”

    For those who are not aware: Communism is the end-state, resulting in the death of all the undesirables and the enslavement of the masses. For “primers” on Communism, read George Orwell’s “1984,” and J. Edgar Hoover’s “Masters of Deceit.” Yes, Communism is alive, well, real, and waiting…in the guise of labels such as “the Progressive Movement” and “Social Justice,” clarion calls for armies of fools and illiterates who wish to change the world to be utilized in the call.

    Utilized, and then liquidated after their usefulness expires: History has shown it again and again, with the “showcase era” being the entire 20th century.

    Here is an excerpt that illustrates how the Communists work…turning family members against one another, using the “gendarmes” of the police force outside of their normal role, and bypassing due process of law with the use of judges:

    The confiscatory order also bars the man from making new firearm or ammunition purchases. On March 9, Breitbart News reported that Gov. Scott signed a $400 million gun bill that includes orders which allows a family member or law enforcement to petition a judge to order the seizure of an individual’s firearms. The bill also put waiting periods in place for long gun purchases, raised the minimum purchase age for long gun purchases (from 18 to 21), and banned bump stocks.

    Neat term, huh? Confiscatory order. Right up there with “Eminent Domain,” and “Annexation.” Chef DeJure: “Stroke of the pen…law of the land.”

    Instead of denouncing the order and upholding the Constitution, the judge, addressed as “Your Honor” but without any… is now selectively interpreting the law and bypassing the 2nd and 4th Amendments to the Constitution in one fell swoop.  All of this has been initiated by a pseudo-Republican governor’s stroke of the pen… entrée de jure, courtesy of Rick Scott.

    Illinois is passing a legislative ban and the mandatory turn-in of “prohibited” firearms by 18-20-year-olds. Other states are following. What is not accomplished by the federal government is being accomplished by the states. They’re using the youth and the pressure of the media and social media to mold the public into compliance. What they cannot engender in that department they’ll close with de jure legislation.

    The problem with laws? Once they’re in place, they’re able to be enforced by men with badges and guns… forcing you to comply. By the time the law is scrutinized by the courts, it is too late. That court scrutiny is not a guarantee that things will be set straight: it’s most likely they will not be. They win by passing their laws, and you are a “subject.” You become the victim of the tyranny of the majority, and the “Your Honors” who are paid politicians and puppets, selectively interpreting, bypassing, and violating Constitutional law.

    They are coming for the guns. Each new “venture” elicits a new response, an incremental shift of the paradigm, as they craft their socialist society. They must have the guns, and they will be coming door to door for them… as they have just done in Florida. Take your steps now while you still can. In the end, a fight is coming. To win, people need to be smart. They need to be aware of what is going on… when to hold ‘em, fold ‘em, walk away, and run… not just stand and fight.

    The first battle is to admit to what is happening and prepare for what is to come.

  • Russia Is Hoarding Gold At The Fastest Pace In 12 Years

    De-dollarization is accelerating…

    Russia is adding gold to its reserves at the fastest pace in 12 years …and dumping US Treasuries at the fastest pace since 2011.

    The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) has been increasing its holdings of gold every month since March 2015. The country is currently the sixth-largest gold owner after the United States, Germany, Italy, France and China.

    According to the CBR, gold reserves spiked to $455.2 billion between March 2 and 9 hitting a historic high not seen since September 2014.

    “Our international reserves increased by $2.9 billion or 0.6 percent in a single week, mainly on the strength of positive re-evaluation,” said the regulator.

    And in fact 2018 has seen the fastest increase in the value of Russia’s gold reserves since 2006…

    In January, RT notes  that Russia surpassed China, which reportedly held 1,843 tons of the precious metal at that time. Over the last 15 years, Moscow and Beijing have been aggressively accumulating gold reserves to reduce their dependence on the US dollar.

    According to World Gold Council data, last year the CBR became a world leader in stockpiling gold.

    The bank has more than doubled the pace of its gold purchases, statistics showed. It has been increasing Russia’s gold reserves to meet the goal set by President Vladimir Putin to make it less vulnerable to geopolitical risks. The Russian gold cache has increased by more than 500 percent since 2000.

    And while the Russian central bank is buying gold with both hands and feet, it is dumping US Treasuries at the fastest pace for a January since 2011…

    Is it any wonder that Washington is so pissed off at Putin?

  • Californians Flee The State In Droves Over Taxation And Housing Costs

    Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

    Californians are bailing on the Golden State in droves as the tax burden and housing costs make the price of living unbearable for far too many. Many of those fleeing are the hearty middle-class who are being pushed into poverty by the socialist policies forced on them by the state’s elites.

    The trend is a symptom of the state’s housing crunch and the ever increasing taxation. Census Bureau data show California lost just over 138,000 people to domestic migration in the 12 months ended in July 2017. Lower-cost states such as Arizona, Texas, and Nevada are popular destinations for relocating Californians.

    Housing costs and the tax burden is far less impactful in pretty much any place outside of California, whose socialist policies drive up poverty and continuously erode the middle class leaving only the extremely wealthy and those in abject poverty.

    The surging number of those working in Silicon Valley and still unable to afford adequate housing should be a warning about big government, but it sure doesn’t seem like anyone is taking notice as their taxes continue to rise. As governments creep toward socialism though, poverty becomes the norm, not the exception. Silicon Valley has the highest median income in the nation. But a soaring tax burden and expensive regulations have caused housing prices to increase which has also caused homelessness to surge. –SHTFPlan

    “There’s nowhere in the United States that you can find better weather than here,” said Dave Senser, who lives on a fixed income near San Luis Obispo, California, and now plans to move to Las Vegas.

    Rents here are crazy if you can find a place, and they’re going to tax us to death. That’s what it feels like. At least in Nevada, they don’t have a state income tax. And every little bit helps.”

    Senser added that he previously lived in the east San Francisco Bay region, and said…

    …housing costs and gas prices are “significantly lower in Las Vegas. The government in the state of California isn’t helping people like myself. That’s why people are running out of this state now.

    USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Poll of Californians last fall found that the high cost of living, including housing, was the most important issue facing the state. It also found more than half of Californians wanted to repeal the state’s new gas tax, which raised fees by a whopping 40 percent further burdening those already living paycheck to paycheck.

    During the 12-month period that ended in July of 2017, California saw a net loss of just over 138,000 people, while Texas had a net increase of more than 79,000 people. Arizona gained more than 63,000 residents, and Nevada gained more than 38,000.

    “You can literally have a lot of buying power for the dollar in Southern Nevada versus Southern California,” said Christopher Bishop, president of the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors.

    “So it has been a major trend over the year, year and a half, and we’re seeing it increase.”

  • John Mauldin: Trade Wars Could Trigger "The Next Great Depression"

    Last week on Erik Townsend’s Macrovoices podcast, Jim Grant, storied credit investor and founder of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, explained the reasoning behind his call that the great secular bond bear market actually began in the aftermath of the UK’s Brexit vote during the summer of 2016 – when Treasury yields touched their all-time lows.

    Surprisingly, Grant’s call isn’t rooted in the bold-faced absurdity of Italian junk bonds trading with a zero-handle (although that’s certainly part of it). Rather, Grant explained, a historical analysis reveals that bond yields fluctuate in broad-based multi-generation cycles of different lengths. And given the carte blanche allotted to economics PhDs to “put the cart of asset prices before the horse of enterprise”, the fundamentals are indeed worrisome.

    But in this week’s interview, John Mauldin offered a much more sanguine view of the landscape for markets and the global economy.

    Beginning with the stock market: The “volocaust” experienced by US markets wasn’t unusual, Mauldin explained. It was the 15 straight months without a 2% correction that was unusual, Mauldin said.

    Mauldin

    John Mauldin

    More corrections will almost certainly follow during the coming months. But absent any signs of a recession, these should be treated as buying opportunities by investors.

    Now let’s remember something: The last drawdowns that we had – the corrections if you will – were not the unusual part. They weren’t the odd part. The odd part was 15 months in a row without a 2% correction. Never happened, ever, ever. So that was the odd part.

    That should have been what we were all looking at and going “this is scary.” It wasn’t a 5% or 6% correction. The type of correction we just went through was something that we normally get at least once every 12 to 18 months. You get a 5% correction every 90 days, every quarter. So that was the normal, if you will. The not normal was no corrections and just almost straight up.

    And we’re going to see probably more corrections. We’re going to see more volatility. But I would argue that any correction we see now, absent indications for a potential recession, are buying opportunities. If you’re a trader you, you know, see things – when they get to the top you raise a little cash, and when they go down some it gets into your buying session. You buy some, you go back in.

    Indeed, the market is probably only going to move higher, Mauldin said. Though the US economy is on the cusp of notching the second-longest growth period in its history, few people see a recession in the offing – a view shared by, among others, bond guru Jeff Gundlach.

    The US market may in fact be getting a little long in the tooth. I think that’s fair to say. I think sometime this next month, or very shortly, we become the second-longest growth period in history. And it has to go for another year after that to be the longest. And it very well could.

    If you’re looking for recession indicators, there just aren’t any. Several of my friends who really track this stuff – I mean they’re obsessed – and one of them has 18 recession indicators. And 17 of them are saying No. Another one has 11 recession indicators. By the way, they’re different. I found it fascinating. And the large preponderance of those are saying No.

    These are nine months out – one of the interesting things is there’s only one really good longer-term recession indicator. And that’s the inverted yield curve. And we are nowhere close to an inverted yield curve in the US markets. That means when short-term rates go above long-term rates. And short-term rates have got to go up again, and again, and again. And the Fed is telling us they’re going to do that.

    But that would still mean that long-term rates would have to drop an awful lot. There’s no
    reason to think that we’re going to have a recession, absent something happening in Europe – Europe blowing up because of what’s happening in Italy or other places. Or China having some nasty, unexpected event. Which I don’t expect to happen. I think Xi’s got the world pretty much going the way he wants it.

    However, Maudlin sees one possible catalyst that could sink the US economy into the next depression – not just a recession, Maudlin emphasizes, but a prolonged period of contraction similar to the Great Depression.

    And that, Maudlin argues, is runaway protectionism that leads to a global trade war.

    After all, Maudlin explains, the Great Depression was – despite all that talk about buying on margin and the Black Monday – caused by Herbert Hoover’s ill-advised passage of the Smoot-Hawley tariffs.

    Trade war, protectionism, if it gets out of hand, that could create a recession. And I am not unconcerned about that. I’ve said for 16–17 years in my writing, the thing that keeps me up the most at night, the thing that really worries me about the future of our economy and our kids and everything, that’s a signal for a depression, not a recession, a depression, is trade wars. Protectionism. Smoot–Hawley.

    I mean, you get Herbert Hoover, who didn’t know anything, really, about a lot of the things that he was coming into, not unlike maybe some people would suggest our current president is like – he’s learning on the job. But Herbert Hoover let Smoot–Hawley get through and he signed it. And it was all over for the world. We had a depression. That worries me. In and of itself are these steel tariffs a problem? No. I mean, are some people going to lose their jobs over it because it makes their products too high? Yes.

    The steel companies are already at record profits, for gosh sakes. I mean, it’s like, they don’t need any help. But it’s a little bitty market. In the grand scheme of things it’s not that big. And, by the way, under George W., he put steel tariffs in. Steel workers, now, there’s 160,000 of them.

    That’s all we’ve got left. And people say, oh, my goodness, all those jobs have left. They’ve gone overseas. And I say, no they haven’t. We are producing more steel today than we have ever produced. It wasn’t the jobs that went to China or Mexico or whatever. It was technology. It’s just silly to think that you can make those jobs come back with tariffs. 80% of the manufacturing jobs that have been lost in the United States have been lost to technology.

    The problem, Mauldin explains, is that manufacturing jobs in the US aren’t disappearing because of free trade – they’re disappearing because of technological advancements. So, the irony of the situation is that, by enforcing protectionism, the steel workers whom President Trump is trying to help will instead suffer – just like they did when George W Bush experimented with steel tariffs nearly 20 years ago.

    Listen to the rest of the interview below:

  • Mapping The 24 States Proposing Campus "Free Speech" Bills

    Authored by Nikita Vladimirov via Campus Reform,

    At least 24 states have now either introduced or passed legislation defending freedom of speech on public college campuses. 

    A total of eight states – Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Colorado, Utah, and Arizona – have already passed bills into law that designed to protect free expression in higher education, with lawmakers from 16 other states campaigning to pass similar legislation.

    Florida was the latest to pass such a measure, with Gov. Rick Scott signing a bill banning “free speech zones” on campuses last week. The legislation also included a “Cause of Action” mandate, allowing individuals to sue universities for violating their “expressive rights.”

    Kentucky is the next state that could join the list, as the State Senate recently voted to pass a bill designed to protect the free speech of students and faculty alike. 

    “The problem with this free speech area is it’s not even close to a lot of activity on campus,” said Republican State Sen. Will Schroder, sponsor of the bill, according to WEKU. “It really restricts individuals to a certain location.”

    Not all of the free speech bills, however, have found the necessary support to successfully navigate the legislative process.

    According to the Kansas News Service, the Kansas freedom of expression measure fell just one vote short of passing the State Senate on Thursday, ultimately falling with a 20-20 vote.

    “It is our intent – those of us who are voting for this bill – to protect the speech of all students, no matter their race, their color, their creed, their gender identity or their sexual orientation,” Senate President Susan Wagle commented. 

    The top Democrat and the Senate Minority Leader Anthony Hensley, however, vocally opposed the legislation, arguing that he “cannot support a bill that softens punishment for hateful harassment.”

  • All You Need To Know About Tomorrow's FOMC Meeting

    Earlier today, we laid out some of the key expectations and questions ahead of tomorrow’s hawkish FOMC decision, when new Fed chair Jay Powell is virtually guaranteed to raise rates by 25bps, with the only question being whether the FOMC “dots” will rise enough to indicate 4 rate hikes in 2018, or stay at 3, and whether the Fed will change the FOMC day format to add a press conference after every meeting. 

    Here, for those who missed it, or are still unsure what to expect, here is a preview of tomorrow’s main event with the help of RanSquawk:

    RATE PATH: A 25bps hike to 1.50-1.75% is priced in with over 90% certainty by money markets. More interest will be on how many hikes the FOMC projects in 2018 (currently three), and over its forecast horizon (seven; federal funds futures barely price five over that horizon).

    Unlike December 2017, where Kashkari and Evans dissented to lifting rates, BoAML expects the decision to be unanimous in March, given the hawkish rotation of FOMC voters.

    HOW MANY HIKES: Consensus is split whether there will be three or four hikes in 2018. Goldman Sachs says recent hawkish remarks by Fed officials suggest a broad shift in the Committee’s outlook towards a faster pace of tightening, and it sees the Fed signalling four rate rises this year, although not in later in the year. Even so, UBS posits the theory that the doves’ forecasts may simply play catch-up – the hawks were always shooting for three/+ hikes – and, accordingly, the dots could just be narrowed at the lower-end of the spectrum, with the median remaining three. Additionally, the impact of fiscal stimulus will filter through later along the forecast horizon. By maintaining the three hikes view, the Fed would have more flexibility to better assess inflation trends and the likely impact of fiscal stimulus in later meetings, leaving the option to add the ‘fourth dot’ in June or September. And even if the Fed kept ‘three dots’ in 2018, it could still play a hawkish card by adding another rate rise to the 2019 profile, where it currently has two hikes pencilled in.

    Morgan Stanley is far more lukewarm, and it expects that at the current rate of tightening, there will be a flat-to-inverted yield curve, which together with continued balance sheet runoff and tighter financial conditions, will warrant close examination of how much further the FOMC wants to push rates in this cycle. Thereafter, in early 2019, fiscal stimulus will push a very late-cycle economy to new heights Morgan Stanley believes, leading the Fed to hike two additional times—in March and June. The bank predicts that the midpoint of the target range will be near neutral (at 2.625%), at which point believes the hiking cycle will end.

    Goldman meanwhile writes that while its own forecast is that the FOMC will deliver four hikes both this year and next year, it expects a more measured increase in the dots, as shown in the chart below.

    As Goldman’s Jan Hatzius calculates four members would have to boost their projections above the December median (of three hikes) for the March SEP to show a four-hike baseline in 2018. Six individuals projected a three-hike 2018 pace at the December meeting (i.e. just one hike below four), and given the upbeat public remarks and encouraging data, Goldman believes such an increase is indeed likely, and also expects the 2020 median dot to increase, but by less than half of a hike.

    Meanwhile, BofA’s baseline forecast is for the median dot to stick at three hikes for 2018 (2.125%), move up to three hikes in 2019 and hold at 1.5 hikes in 2020, leaving rates at 3.25% at end of 2020, and expects the long-term dot to shift up slightly to 2.875%.

    * * *

    SO WILL IT BE 3 OR 4 HIKES IN 2018? the 2018 median was 2.125% for the December 2017 dot plot. For this rate to increase 25bp, four of the dots at or below the median would have to shift to 2.375%. In other words, for the median path in 2018 to move to 4 hikes the dot plot would need at a minimum all but one participant currently at 3 hikes to move to 4.

    The following table illustrates just what it might take.

     

    FORECASTS: Growth projections will likely be nudged up in 2018 and 2019 on the back of fiscal stimulus. And this will be likely be accompanied by a lower unemployment rate (but not necessarily a lower NAIRU rate) and slight upward revisions to the Fed’s PCE/core PCE view, Pantheon Macro says.

    * * *

    ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS: Financial conditions remain easy, but are broadly unchanged since the FOMC put together its last round of projections in December, with easing from moderately higher stocks and a weaker dollar almost fully offset by higher Treasury yields. As such, THE FOMC has little impetus to change its forecasts due to financial conditions. However, Morgan Stanley expects that policymakers will incorporate additional upside from fiscal policy into their March growth projections, with tax reform and fiscal spending packages having been finalized after the last projections were put together in early December. As Chair Powell noted in his congressional testimony, “my personal outlook for the economy has strengthened since December.” Indeed, other policymakers have expressed optimism about the economic outlook as well. Governor Brainard, for example, indicated that “[m]any of the forces that acted as headwinds to U.S. growth and weighed on policy in previous years are generating tailwinds currently.” On fiscal policy, Brainard noted: “.. on top of [December’s tax legislation], the recently agreed-to budget deal is likely to raise federal spending by around 0.4 percent of GDP in each of the next two years.” Fiscal impetus of such a  magnitude easily poses upside risk to December’s GDP growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 (more heavily weighted toward 2018). Meanwhile, with inflation data unfolding in line with expectations, financial conditions roughly unchanged in December, and the assumption that any added fiscal stimulus comes with growth in productivity (dampening the inflationary effects of faster growth), Morgan Stanley sees no need for the FOMC median forecast for core inflation to be revised at this meeting. The bank’s projected changes in the March Econ Projections table is below.

    FEDSPEAK: Recent Fedspeak has raised hopes of an upward revision to the rate path; Trump’s fiscal stimulus plan, as well as nascent signs of inflation (wage growth has firmed, headline CPI is above 2.0%, though both core CPI and core PCE lag, PPI hints at inflation pressures) has seen dovish FOMC members like Brainard and Bostic (both voters) talk-up a higher trajectory, while centrist Dudley (voter) said four rate rises this year is consistent with gradual normalisation. Chair Powell struck a balanced tone at his recent dual-testimony to lawmakers; he retained the optionality of four hikes via an optimistic assessment of the economic outlook – commenting that recent data has increased his confidence that inflation will rise. He noted that “we” (implying the Committee) are not currently seeing strong evidence for a decisive move higher in wages. That view was ultimately corroborated by the latest earnings data in the Employment Situation Report, which saw the YY rate of wage growth ease back slightly following January’s upwards spike.

    What other FOMC participants have said recently about the number of hikes this year:

    • Boston FRB President Rosengren (3/9/18): To keep the economy on a sustainable path, I expect that it will be appropriate to remove monetary policy accommodation at a regular but gradual pace – and perhaps a bit faster than the three, one-quarter point increases envisioned for this year in the assessment of appropriate policy from the December 2017 FOMC meeting.
    • Philly FRB President Harker (2/8/18): I still have penciled in two because I’d like to see us slightly overshoot our 2% inflation target, but I think there are some risks to the upside, where I would be open to three going forward.
    • Dallas FRB President Kaplan (2/2/18): I’ve said that I think the base case for 2018 should be three removals of accommodation, and we’ll see—it could be more than that, we’ll have to see.
    • NY FRB President Dudley (1/18/18): The forecast that the FOMC wrote down in December, in the December SEP, where the median was three rate hikes in 2018 seems like a very reasonable type of forecast…it could be more.
    • NY FRB President Dudley (3/1/18): If you were to go to four 25 basis point rate hikes, I’d think it would still be gradual.
    • Atlanta FRB President Bostic (3/7/18): According to Bloomberg, Bostic said that in December he was expecting two rate hikes this year, but has moved to three.

    * * *

    NAME THAT DOT:  As noted above, the greatest uncertainty is how many hikes take place in 2018, and that we would need to see four FOMC officials move from the three- to four-hike camp for that to happen. Based on BofA calculations, the most likely members in the three-hike camp in December were Yellen, Powell, Kaplan, Dudley, Williams and Quarles. The risk is that Quarles and Dudley move to the four-hike camp, but Kaplan will likely stay at three hikes. It is a close call for Powell and Williams. While the median forecast would therefore stay at 2.125%, the mean will move higher by just over half a hike, but with risks of a bigger gain.

    POWELL PRESSER: It is hard to judge how Powell will handle his first press conference, but if his recent testimonies are anything to go by, he will deliver “an optimistic and positive tone” according to BofA. He will likely sound optimistic on the outlook, where headwinds are becoming tailwinds, BNP Paribas believes, while Deutsche Bank says that he may go further and say that risks are now shifting towards an overheating economy. That optimism will require a  degree of hawkishness to justify, especially in the likely scenario that rate forecasts are raised. But Powell will still likely try and achieve a balance. There is an outside chance Powell will be quizzed on whether he intends to hold a post-meeting press conference after every rate decision, to which he might respond that it is a consideration; SGH Macro says this will convey a message that ‘every meeting is live’.

    BofA expects Powell to field the following questions:

    1. Are long-run growth prospects improving? He will likely suggest the risks are increasingly skewed in that direction, but that it is prudent to wait for more evidence, emphasizing productivity and labor force expansion.
    2. How important are financial conditions? He may note that recent measures have revealed tightening with some signs of funding stress. It will be interesting to see how he links this back to monetary policy.
    3. Will the Fed allow inflation to overshoot the target? He will emphasize the symmetry of the inflation target, but likely offer little information about the alternative monetary policy frameworks that are under discussion.
    4. Will the FOMC move to a press conference at every meeting? BofA expects him to suggest it is under discussion without committing.

    While it may not be directly touched upon in the presser, a key point of focus for the rates market will be any discussion around the tightening of financial conditions since the last Fed rate hike. Equities remain below their late January peak, credit spreads are wider, and the 3m LIBOR-OIS spread has blown out since the December FOMC meeting. However, BofA expects the Fed will not sound particularly concerned about the recent tightening in conditions, noting some contraction is to be expected with higher policy rates and a shrinking Fed balance sheet. The Fed would likely be much more concerned about the tightening in financial conditions and rise in LIBOR if it appears to more directly spill over into broader corporate borrowing/investment activity or begins to wane on consumer or business confidence. In other words, until stocks tumble because of the spike in Libor/L-OIS, the Fed will not lift a finger.

    * * *

    MARKET REACTION: Lifting rates may see a modest rally along the front of the curve, BoAML says; and Rabobank adds that if inflation doesn’t materialise in the medium/longer-run, a curve inversion could be on the cards. A steeper curve will require the Fed to raise expectations of the terminal rate by notching up its long-term rate forecast, which could see underperformance in the five-year sector, BoAML says; the bank sees the 2s5s curve steepening, and the 5s30s flattening. Either way, BoAML – who has been more positive on the USD than the street – sees the risks skewed towards USD-bullishness. In a hawkish scenario, Barclays has recommended short NZDUSD to take advantage of the monetary policy divergence theme between the Fed and what is likely to be a dovish RBNZ (whose rate announcement follows the Fed’s on Wednesday). Refraining from raising the long-run rate view too aggressively (or at all) may be a recipe for risk assets to perform well, but not the USD given concerns about the toxic mix of both easy monetary and fiscal policy (SocGen).

    * * *

    FOMC REDLINE: What will the Fed say? We leave readers with two blackline FOMC statement previews, one from Morgan Stanley and one from Goldman Sachs, laying out where the two banks expect to see changes to the Fed language.  What is interesting is that while both banks expect a modest walk back of the current economic conditions – especially in housing – while leaving the rest of the statement unchanged, they still expect a 25 bps hike. 

    First, here is Morgan Stanley:

    And here is Goldman’s preview:

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Today’s News 20th March 2018

  • France: Toward Total Submission To Islam, Destruction Of Free Speech

    Authored by Guy Milliere via The Gatestone Institute,

    After the murders of much of the staff at the French satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo in Paris on January 7, 2015, the hostage-taking and slaughter at a kosher supermarket two days later confirmed what was already obvious: France was a target of Islamic terrorism. A huge demonstration, organized in Paris on January 11, brought together a million and a half people, with politicians from around the world in attendance.

    For a brief moment, France seemed to be the country where the multitudes were ready to stand up for freedom of speech, and the government was ready to fight for Western values.

    Unfortunately, that impression did not last long.

    For years, freedom of speech in France has been in the process of being crushed, particularly regarding Islam and Islamic terrorism. Journalists who said that Islam often did not look much like a religion of peace but more like a religion of war were systematically and harshly prosecuted. Charlie Hebdo‘s new director and editor-in-chief were also not spared: they were sued as early as 2006, the year the magazine republished the Danish Mohammed cartoons. They were sued again in 2007, 2012 and 2013. The writer Michel Houellebecq was summoned to court in 2010 for saying that Islam is a “stupid” religion. The first judicial sentence against the polemist Éric Zemmour dates from 2011. The website Riposte Laïque was established in 2007 to fight censorship, defend secularism, and preserve the right to criticize Islam. Lawsuits against its founder, Pierre Cassen, immediately became overwhelming.

    Judicial harassment against those who still dared to speak “incorrectly” about Islam did not stop after the murders at Charlie Hebdo: rather, they intensified. The terrorist attacks that took place in France in November 2015 and in July 2016 did not lead to any demonstrations; merely to displays of sadness, fear and resignation. French politicians used empty words, spoke of the dangers of “fanaticism” and said that France was “at war” — but they never named an enemy. Journalists and writers who said that terrorists attacking France were Muslim, and that “Islamism” was not foreign to Islam, had to answer for their words in court and were fined thousands of euros.

    Both Éric Zemmour and Pierre Cassen have spent hours on trial providing conclusive evidence — in vain.

    Since the election of President Emmanuel Macron a year ago, the situation has become worse. On June 20, 2017, at the end of a post-Ramadan iftar dinner he shared with Muslim leaders, President Macron stated that “…no one should make believe that Islam is not compatible with the Republic”; that ” no one should say that France reject Muslim faith” and that “attempt to give Islam the image of a religion condoning murder and terror” must be condemned. Most French critics of Islam got the message and cautiously chose silence. Riposte Laïque did not, but here were consequences.

    On January 20, 2018, Pierre Cassen was convicted of “incitement to hatred against Muslims” and a fine of $12,000 was imposed on him. He was also given a three-month suspended prison sentence. He will soon be tried again for repeating the same “crime”, and could be sent to prison.

    Several European governments have made it clear that criticizing Islam may lead to prosecution and conviction. Recently, British, Danish and German citizens have been handed suspended sentences. If Pierre Cassen is imprisoned, it will be the first time that someone in a Western democracy is sent to jail for criticizing a religion.

    Worse, Cassen is not even the author of the article targeted by the judges, and the article only says what is obvious: that extremist Muslims are at war with France and the West, and that incitement to kill infidels is present in the Qur’an. Cassen was sentenced as the editor of Riposte Laïque; since 2012, however, Riposte Laïque has been hosted by Switzerland and has a Swiss editor. Pierre Cassen no longer even has an official role in the organization. He is just easy prey because he lives in France. Pierre Cassen, clearly a victim of prosecutorial abuse, is planning to apply for political asylum in Switzerland.

    Two members of the French National Assembly, Gilbert Collard and Marine Le Pen, a former presidential candidate who secured 35% of votes in the May 2017 run-off, were also recently charged with “inciting violence”. They did not even publish texts criticizing Islam. After a journalist compared their party (National Front) to the Islamic State, they tweeted photos showing atrocities committed by the Islamic State, and added under the photos: “This is the Islamic State”. They are also facing serious fines and prison sentences. The photos they tweeted are not even secret: they are widely available on the internet.

    Originally, Collard and Le Pen were protected by parliamentary immunity. Their parliamentary immunity, however, was revoked by an almost unanimous vote in the French National Assembly. This is the first time that members of a democratic Western government risk being imprisoned for publishing widely available photos of Islamic crimes.

    French laws are being used more and more often by the French justice system to suppress any criticism of Islam. Furthermore, in a dangerous inversion of reality, critics of Islamic terrorist violence are now systematically presented by French judges as examples of incitement to hatred and violence. The threat of jail time is added to the threat of fines.

    Consequently, those who criticize Islam — or who just show the results of Islamic terrorism — are victims of fierce prosecution, while hate-filled, racist organizations are never touched. The Islamic “Natives of the Republic” movement, for instance, regularly publishes texts saying that ” greedy Jews control the global financial system” and that “Zionists kill Palestinian children for pleasure” but are never condemned. Houria Bouteldja, the spokesperson for the movement, published a book describing Jews as vicious supporters of “Islamophobia”, and stating that the Holocaust is “infinitely less than a detail” of history. She recently took part in anti-Israel demonstrations where flags of Hamas and Hezbollah were waved and portraits of murderers of Jews were held up. Jewish organizations expressed their indignation and filed complaints — to no avail.

    The French government and the French justice system claim to treat all religions equally, but they treat Islam as if it were “more equal than others” — able to enjoy special privileges.

    In France, attacks against Islam are benign and rare, but lead to severe convictions: in January 2016, a man dropped slices of ham in front of a mosque. He was immediately sent to jail for several weeks. Attacks against Christianity, however, are countless, sometimes violent, but almost never lead to any conviction. French theaters produce anti-Christian shows almost every year. In a play called “On the Concept of the Face of God,” currently on tour throughout the country, for almost two hours, a large portrait of Jesus Christ is insulted and covered with matter that is supposed to be feces. The French Ministry of Culture subsidizes the tour. No theater director, however, would imagine producing an anti-Islam show.

    Six to eight million Muslims live in France, and the number is increasing. France’s 400,000 remaining Jews have not yet left France, but every year their the numbers shrink. Practicing Christians vanish; churches are often empty.

    Polls show that a significant proportion of the French population thinks that Islam is a threat, but French authorities choose to harass those who speak of this threat.

    In 2005, the situation was already serious. Muslim riots took place throughout the country. French President Jacques Chirac asked imams to restore calm and began to abandon the French government’s sovereignty over many districts. A few years later, President Nicolas Sarkozy claimed to organize an “Islam of France”, based on a structure he had created in 2003 when he was Minister of the Interior. He asked French Muslim leaders to call for “moderation”. He failed: French Muslim leaders said unanimously that “Islam is not violent” and “does not need moderation”. He promised to end “no-go zones” and to take back the districts abandoned under Jacques Chirac. He also failed; in 2006 there were already 751 no-go zones in France, and “as of last count,” that number is no different. President François Hollande did nothing and let the situation rot. President Emmanuel Macron now speaks of the need to “reorganize the Islam of France” but instead appears to surrender.

    In 2005, Muslim riots took place throughout France. President Jacques Chirac began to abandon the government’s sovereignty over many districts. Pictured: Riot police watch as a warehouse burns in the Paris suburb of Aubervilliers on November 4, 2005, on the eighth consecutive night of rioting. (Photo by Pascal Le Segretain/Getty Images)

    Macron recently said he wants to create the post of “Grand Imam of France”, a man who would be the “spiritual leader” of Islam in France. He added that he would like to see the construction of large “cathedral mosques” in every important French city. He also wants the Arabic language to be taught in every high school, to maintain a relationship between Muslims and the language of their religion. He promises affirmative action in favor of Muslims and a more resolute fight against “those who attack Islam”. He never uses the words “radical Islam”. He speaks of “radicalization”, but says that the main danger is the “radicalization of secularism“. He does not hide that those who defend secularism — and a clear separation between the government and Islam (Riposte Laïque, for example) — are an obstacle on the path he intends to follow. Clearly, the fight against “radicalization of secularism” is in high gear!

    Marwan Muhammad, spokesman of the “Collective against Islamophobia in France” said in 2011:

    “Who has the right to say that in thirty to forty years, France will not be a Muslim country? No one in this country has the right to extinguish our right to hope for a society that is globally faithful to Islam “.

    Every day in France, men such as Marwan Muhammad have more reason to hope.

    Prominent Islamic preacher Tariq Ramadan is presently being held at the Fleury-Mérogis prison near Paris: judges could not dismiss the overwhelming charges against him of rape. Some French Muslims still claim he is being unfairly accused. Many others say he is an impostor and seem ready to get rid of him. They say it is urgent to create “authentic French Islamic institutions” fully “recognized by the French government”. President Macron could not have said it better. The Islamization of France will not stop.

    President Macron recently said he wants a law against “fake news”. If the law is adopted, all online magazines in France that do not broadcast what the government defines as “true news” could be subject to immediate government suspension. If they are located outside France, access to them would be blocked. Islamic online magazines and websites are not on the list of “fake news” providers. What online magazines and websites top the list? Those that question Islam.

  • Paul Craig Roberts: War Is On The Horizon

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

    Have Washington and its British vassal set a stage for testing whether Russia has the stomach for war?

    How else do we interpret the announcement by General Sergey Rudskoy, chief of the Operational Directorate of the Russian General Staff,  that

    we have reliable information at our disposal that US instructors have trained a number of militant groups in the vicinity of the town of At-Tanf, to stage provocations involving chemical warfare agents in southern Syria. They are preparing a series of chemical munitions explosions. This fact will be used to blame the government forces. The components to produce chemical munitions have been already delivered to the southern de-escalation zone under the guise of humanitarian convoys of a number of NGOs.

    The provocations will be used as a pretext by the United States and its allies to launch strikes on military and government infrastructure in Syria.

    Don’t expect to hear anything about this in the totally discredited Western presstitute media, which is a propaganda ministry for war.

    The Russian government must be kicking itself that it again failed to finish the job in Syria and instead permitted Washington to expand its Syrian presence, arm and train its mercenaries, provide chemical weapons, and assemble its fleet to attack Syrian forces in order to prevent their reconquest of Syrian territory.

    The question before us is:

    If the information that General Rudskoy cited is correct, what will Russia do?

    Will Russia use its missile defences and air superiority to shoot down the US missiles and aircraft, or will Russia accept the attack and again denounce the illegality of Washington’s action and protest to the UN?

    If Russia accepts the attack, Washington will push harder. Sooner or later Russia will be unable to accept another push, and war will break out.

    If war breaks out, will it be a limited conventional war or will Washington use the excuse to launch nuclear ICBMs against Russia? These questions must be going through the minds of Russia’s leadership. Russia faces the grave danger that Washington’s Fifth Column inside Russia, the Atlanticist Integrationists, those Russians in the political and business leadership who believe Russia must be, at all costs, integrated into the Western world, will lock the government in indecision and expose Russia to a nuclear first strike.

    So far Russia has continued to defeat itself by playing according to the rules of diplomacy and international law despite the obvious fact that Washington has no respect for either. During the past week, Washington’s British vassal, a country of no military or political significance, demonstrated total contempt for Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin. In other words, the insult to Russia came from a mere vassal state of Washington’s empire. An alleged poisoning by an alleged Russian nerve gas, the very existence of which is doubted by US and UK experts, of an inconsequential former spy and his daughter has been blamed, without a shred of evidence, on Russia by the British prime minister, defense minister, and foreign minister.

    The British prime minister violated law and agreements to which Britain is partner by giving Russia 24 hours to respond to an accusation for which no evidence was provided. Law and the agreements require that the country making an accusation share the evidence with the accused country, which has 10 days to assess the evidence and reply. The British government refused to abide by the agreement to which it is partner. Moreover, the British foreign minister Boris Johnson personally accused Russia’s President Putin of ordering the attempted murder of the inconsequential spy. For more information on the former spy and his lack of consequence and the absurdity of the orchestrated event, see recent postings on my website.

    Not content with the unprecedented insult to Russia and its President, the British defense minister of a country that has no capability whatsoever of defending itself against Russia, even with its liege lord’s help, said in response to Russia’s rejection of the unsupported-by-any-evidence charge that “Russia should shut up and go away.”

    This was too much for the Russian Ministry of Defense. General Igor Konashenkov replied:

    The rhetoric of an uncouth shrew demonstrated by the Head of the British Ministry of Defense makes his utter intellectual impotence perfectly evident. All this confirms not only the nullity of all accusations towards Russia we have been hearing from London for the last several years but also that the ‘accusers’ themselves are nonentities.

    The ‘Great’ Britain has long turned not only into a cozy nest for defectors from all over the world but also into a hub for all sorts of fake news-producing agencies: from the British ‘Syrian Observatory for Human Rights’ to the created by a British intelligence officer pseudo-Syrian ‘White Helmets’.

    “As to boorish words of the British Defense Minister regarding Russia, it seems that in the absence of the real results of professional activity, rudeness is the only weapon remaining in the arsenal of the Her Majesty’s Military.” 

    Note the total dismissal of ‘Great’ Britain by the Russian Ministry of Defence as a military and political power. From the Russian military’s standpoint Washington’s British vassal state is a total nonentity. This suggests that the Russian military is focused on Washington and is unlikely to tolerate Washington’s agents in Russian government and business circles if they attempt to leave Russia exposed by indecision.

    Perhaps the Russians will decide it is past time for them to demonstrate their superior military capabilities, and they will take out not only the US missiles and airplanes but also the fleets from which the attack is launched while putting their nuclear forces on high alert. What then would Washington do? Can a government composed of bullies drunk on hubris come to a sensible decision, or would people so arrogant as to think themselves “exceptional” and “indispensable” condemn the world, including the plants, animals, birds, and all creatures who have no idea of the murderous lunatics that rule the Western world, to death?

    There is no greater threat to life on earth than Washington. Constraining Washington’s determination to destroy life on earth is the greatest challenge humanity has faced. If we fail, we all die, every one of us and all creatures.

    Despite Russia’s military superiority, the humanity of the Russian government places it at a disadvantage as there is no concern for humanity in Washington.

  • Hillary Resurfaces, Offers No Apology To "Racist" Trump Voters, Insults "White Women" With Husbands

    Hillary Clinton has finally accepted personal responsibility for her historic loss against Donald Trump, apologized for calling half of America racist and misogynist, admitted the whole Russia thing was a smokescreen, and promised the Democratic party she’d stop undermining their efforts to rebrand ahead of Midterms.

    Just kidding.

    In a verbose weekend screed on Facebook – one week after she said Trump voters don’t like black people “getting rights” or women “getting jobs,” the closest Clinton came to the word “apologize” is that she “meant no disrespect to any individual or group” – before proceeding to suggest that weak white women might not have thought a “powerful woman” could lead, and simply voted for Trump because their husbands did:

    Democrats need to do better with white women, because I know in my heart that Democrats have much more to offer them. Do I believe that some women look at a powerful woman and question whether she can lead, maybe voting for the man their husband is voting for instead? It may not be universally true or easy to hear, but yes, it’s a dynamic still at play in our society. –Hillary Clinton

    [T]here is anecdotal evidence and some research to suggest that women are unfortunately more swayed by men than the other way around,” Clinton insisted. “As much as I hate the possibility, and hate saying it, it’s not that crazy when you think about our ongoing struggle to reach gender balance – even within the same household.”

    Clinton also said that Trump’s message during the election was “looking backwards,” and that she won states “that are optimistic, diverse, dynamic, moving forward.” 

    And so Hillary somehow once again manages to insult entire states, including those key swing states that turned red in 2016.

    No wonder Democrats – including her former campaign manager – want her to stick a cork in it.

    Incidentally, one assumes that Clinton dictated her non-apology to an assistant as the former Secretary of State fractured her wrist falling in the bathtub shortly after slipping twice down 15 unassuming stairs.

     

  • Nomi Prins: Jared Kushner, R.I.P., A Political Obit For A President's Son-In-Law

    Authored by Nomi Prins via TomDispatch.com,

    Here we are a little more than a year into the Trump presidency and his administration’s body count is already, as The Donald might put it, “unbelievable, perhaps record-setting.”

    Among the casualties are Secretary of State Rex Tillerson; my former boss at Goldman Sachs, economic policy chief Gary Cohn; National Security Advisor Michael Flynn; FBI Director James Comey; White House Press Secretary and Communications Director Sean Spicer; four other communications directors including Hope Hicks who, having been Ivanka Trump’s confidante, was elevated to the status of the president’s “real daughter” before her own White House exit; chief strategist Steve Bannon; Chief of Staff Reince Priebus; a bunch of other instant relics of Trumpian political history, and a partridge in a pear tree. (Actually, a 200-year-old magnolia uprooted from the White House grounds thanks to the first lady.)

    Responding to Hope Hicks’ departure and, perhaps subliminally, the rumored future exile of son-in-law Jared Kushner, the president typically half-lamented and half-quipped, “So many people have been leaving the White House. It’s invigorating, since you want turnover. I like chaos. It really is good. Who’s going to be the next to leave? Steve Miller or Melania?”

    Melania has been unavailable for comment on her own possible future place among the fallen of the Trump era.  Perhaps, though, she’ll hang around and offer her husband a little comfort in Stormy weather, as rumors continue to circulate that his perfectly real daughter and her all-too-real husband may be ousted from the premises.

    Not surprisingly, personnel issues seem to be on the president’s mind these days.  On March 6th, in the East Room of the White House and flanked by the Swedish prime minister, he boasted, “So many people want to come in. I have a choice of anybody. I could take any position in the White House, and I’ll have a choice of the 10 top people having to do with that position. Everybody wants to be there.”

    However, with constant media conjectures about yet more departures including National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster and possibly even White House Chief of Staff John Kelly, there seems to be a predisposition to move out of, not into, this Oval Office.  In a remarkably short space of time, President Trump has already achieved a record 43% turnover rate for top-level staff members, some of whom may be jumping ship in hopes of emerging with reputations relatively untarred, while avoiding lengthy prison sentences.

    As collateral damage in his world mounts, it seems as if the only members of the Trump Empire, White House division, guaranteed job security are his lawyers and perhaps Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Even that most nuclear of families — his — seemed in peril of exploding, as the countdown to Kushner’s exit approaches the zero hour. It looks as if we may all have scored front-row seats for the latest you’re-fired episode in the White House reality show.

    Given the not-if-but-when nature of Kushner’s departure from the White House, it’s none too soon for media outlets to prepare themselves.  With that in mind, here is a prospective political obituary for him.

    Bringing Peace to a Riven World

    The political career of Jared Kushner met a slow death from unparalleled incompetence, conflicts of interest, and financial sleights of hand. He is survived by his father-in-law Donald Trump and — though no one knows for how long — his wife, Ivanka. At age 37, he had held the role of White House senior adviser and assistant to the president since the day Donald Trump entered the Oval Office. Just two months later, his wife agreed to take a similar advisory position.  Though together they were reported to be worth a mere $740 million, they generously offered to do their new jobs without pay from a sense of duty to country and the kindness of their hearts — and also perhaps to avoid running afoul of an anti-nepotism law passed in 1967 when Lyndon B. Johnson was president.

    Jared’s year-plus in the White House proved another Trump-style record setter, a pro bono financial odyssey of a sort no previous White House had ever witnessed.  While traveling the globe to carry out his “duties” and hobnob, negotiate, and pose for endless photo-ops with world leaders from Iraq, China, Israel, and a host of other countries — a role once upon a time filled by the secretary of state — the overworked adviser somehow found a few moments to cash in his diplomatic air-miles big time.

    In his Rolodex of titles, he would also serve as head of a completely fabricated new entity, the White House Office of American Innovation. In both capacities, he stood ready to change the world, a goal he achieved handily — if the world you happen to be talking about was his own financial one. And that was no small thing.  After all, it’s not easy to oversee and advance (or, in his case, even potentially depth charge) your private business interests while lending a hand running the country, not to speak of the world, and freeing your father-in-law to work on his golf stroke.

    For example, Kushner attempted to extract from investors in Qatar a modest half-billion dollars in bailout funds for a cratering Manhattan skyscraper, 666 Fifth Avenue, that he had purchased for his family business while still in the private sector. Unfortunately, that particular deal fell through, after which Kushner and his father-in-law happily backed the Saudis in their blockade and quarantine of Qatar.

    Taking his business-oriented focus on the road as the White House liaison for peace in the Middle East, Kushner was also tasked with the simple goal of brokering the settlement of the Israel-Palestine conflict. His familiarity with the region was significant since, among other things, he had gotten at least four major loans from Bank Hapoalim, Israel’s largest bank, for the Kushner family real estate company. (Hapoalim is undergoing a criminal probe by the U.S. government for tax evasion services it reportedly provided to its wealthy clients.) Shortly before President Trump’s visit to Israel in May 2017, Kushner Companies also received a $30 million investment from Menora Mivtachim, one of Israel’s largest insurers — and what could be more peaceable than that? As everyone knows, Kushner himself left office just as peace was settling over the region (and the U.S. was moving its embassy to Jerusalem).

    China, of course, had been a longtime target of Donald Trump until — in a similarly diplomatic frame of mind — Kushner helped organize a fabulous Dover sole dinner at the president’s Mar-a-Lago club with Chinese President Xi Jinping last April.  He would also prove to be a key figure in smoothing the way for better relations with that rising global superpower — an approach that just happened to fit perfectly with the Kushner family business.  Only a month after that dinner, for example, his sister, Nicole Meyer, was already reportedly pitching the glories of One Journal Square, a Jersey City housing project the Kushner family owns that was in need of $150 million in investments, to a gathering of 100 potential Chinese investors at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in Beijing. As part of that pitch, while dropping her brother’s name, she offered them a path into the U.S. EB-5 visa program, sometimes referred to as a “citizenship for sale” program, which they could enter through Kushner properties for a mere $500,000 each.

    Building brilliantly on his Chinese portfolio, Jared Kushner, too, held private meetings with elite potential Chinese investors in… well, properties like his family’s and spent copious time with the Chinese ambassador to the U.S. during and after the election campaign. He allegedly also attended high-level meetings with the chairman of Anbang Insurance Group during the Trump transition period.  At the time, Anbang just coincidentally was considering making an investment in 666 Fifth Avenue.  Unfortunately, no deal resulted. Since then, the company has been seized by the Chinese government and its chairman prosecuted for “economic crimes.”  For Kushner, refinancing that single building in New York proved no easier than making peace in the Middle East.

    But give him credit: while advising the president, he never stopped looking out for those closest to him (i.e., his family) and never forgot his role as a junior mogul on the make.  In the process, he entertained a cast of key bank executives.  In an office only doors from the Oval Office, he regularly connected with some of the biggest players on Wall Street, including those at bailout-prone Citigroup, scandal-ridden Deutsche Bank, and the asset-management goliath Blackstone Group. As the Wall Street Journal reported, he also remained in undisclosed business relationships with Goldman Sachs, investor George Soros, and billionaire venture capitalist Peter Thiel. All three had business stakes in a “real-estate tech startup called Cadre that Kushner co-founded and currently partly owns.”

    Being the statesman he was, however, there can be little doubt that Kushner attended such meetings purely to explore the state of banking and investment for the sake of the economic well-being of the American people. After all, no portfolio, from the secretary of state’s to infrastructure and the opioid crisis, was beyond his skills.

    In his brief time in the White House, one thing can be said: his generosity of spirit was second to none. He opened his arms to any financial firm that wanted to help him put the United States on a path back to being great again.  (Whatever multi-million-dollar loans to the Kushner family business occurred in the process surely represented no more than a random confluence of events.) Last November, for example, Apollo Global Management, one of the world’s largest private equity firms, loaned $184 million to Kushner’s family real estate company in order to refinance a mortgage on a Chicago skyscraper. That was after its founder, an adviser to the Trump administration on “infrastructure,” met numerous times with Kushner in the White House.

    When that sum proved less than adequate for the family’s dreams, a far larger company, one that the U.S government had bailed out during the financial crisis of 2007-2008, stepped in and offered his family firm an even bigger loan.  It came from Citigroup, which lent Kushner Companies $325 million to help finance office buildings in Brooklyn.  As the New York Times reported, “That loan was made in the spring of 2017, shortly after Mr. Kushner met in the White House with Citigroup’s chief executive, Michael L. Corbat.”

    In all such situations, the appearance of impropriety was at best circumstantial. In his year-plus in the White House, Kushner unfortunately became the subject of “fake news,” above all by reporters pushing the absurd idea that his family business had somehow profited by his unpaid position in the Trump administration.

    Death in a Revolving Door

    Only in February did things start going truly badly for the young presidential adviser.  Having held only an interim top-secret security clearance for more than a year while his background check stalled (reportedly due to fears that he might be manipulated by foreign powers over his family’s finances), he was suddenly downgraded to “secret” by White House Chief of Staff John Kelly, considered anything but a “Javanka” ally. Such a functional demotion meant that he suddenly had less access to key documents and crucial information of governing than the White House calligrapher In the process, he got pummeled in the media (through no fault of his own, of course).  

    President Trump was reportedly “frustrated” by that media browbeating, but no less so by Kushner himself.  According to the New York Times, Trump now viewed his son-in-law “as a liability because of his legal entanglements, the investigations of the Kushner family’s real estate company, and the publicity over having his security clearance downgraded.” It even began to be rumored that the president had privately asked Chief of Staff Kelly to begin the process of pushing not just Kushner but his own daughter out of the White House. Given the president’s well-documented predisposition to turn his back on former loyalists, that proved to be the end of the road.  In Trumpian terms, Kushner quickly found himself not six feet out of power, but six feet under it.

    It was with deep regret that Jared Kushner left behind his cozy office at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue and his unfinished masterpiece: peace in the Middle East (and possibly the world). He did, however, retain the Washington residence that the first daughter and he had occupied for $15,000 a month. That humble abode was owned by Chilean mogul Andrónico Luksic, whose mining company happens to be mired in a dispute with the U.S government over billions of dollars (which, it goes without saying, had no bearing on the Kushners’ choice of a dwelling).

    In his post-political life, Kushner faces another problem he couldn’t solve while in the White House: by January 2019 the Kushner family organization needs to cough up $1.2 billion to save its flagship New York property from defaulting, a building that, despite Kushner’s well known savvy when it comes to… well, everything, has been losing money since it was purchased for a record $1.8 billion in 2007.  Fortunately, who knows better than the Trump family and by extension the Kushners that, after every possible investor is exhausted, bankruptcy court is always an option.

    In the end, Kushner’s White House journey was through a door revolving around the instability of Donald Trump’s judgment.

    And so Jared Kushner’s political career ended. Of course, he’ll always have, if not Paris, then Jerusalem and the odd trip to Mexico.

    He is survived in the White House by his father-in-law and, for the time being, his wife. Meanwhile, that revolving door continues to spin.

  • Big Brother Arrives: China Bans People With "Bad Social Credit" From Planes, Trains

    Two years ago, we reported that various cities throughout China are currently piloting a “social-credit system” that will assign a “personal citizen score” to every single person based on behavior such as spending habits, turnstile violations and filial piety.

    Hangzhou’s local government is piloting a “social credit” system the Communist Party has said it wants to roll out nationwide by 2020, a digital reboot of the methods of social control the regime uses to avert threats to its legitimacy.

    More than three dozen local governments across China are beginning to compile digital records of social and financial behavior to rate creditworthiness. A person can incur black marks for infractions such as fare cheating, jaywalking and violating family-planning rules. The effort echoes the dang’an, a system of dossiers the Communist party keeps on urban workers’ behavior.

    In time, Beijing expects to draw on bigger, combined data pools, including a person’s internet activity, according to interviews with some architects of the system and a review of government documents.

    Input data for the social credit system comes from a variety of government sources.

    We warned at the time that this ‘score’ could be used to blacklist citizens from loans, jobs, or travel, for example.

    Algorithms would use a range of data to calculate a citizen’s rating, which could then be used to determine all manner of activities, such as who gets loans, or faster treatment at government offices or access to luxury hotels.

    So, imagine our shock, following China’s massive censorship efforts over the last few weeks surrounding Xi’s successful push to become emperor for life, when China said this week it will begin applying its so-called social credit system to flights and trains and stop people who have committed misdeeds from taking such transport for up to a year.

    As Reuters reports,  people who would be put on the restricted lists included those found to have committed acts like spreading false information about terrorism and causing trouble on flights, as well as those who used expired tickets or smoked on trains, according to two statements issued on the National Development and Reform Commission’s website on Friday.

    China has flagged plans to roll out a system that will allow government bodies to share information on its citizens’ trustworthiness and issue penalties based on a so-called social credit score.

    However, there are signs that the use of social credit scoring on domestic transport could have started years ago.

    In early 2017, the country’s Supreme People’s Court said during a press conference that 6.15 million Chinese citizens had been banned from taking flights for social misdeeds.

    President Xi Jinping’s plan, based on the principle ‘once untrustworthy, always restricted’, will come into effect on 1 May…

    The system is designed to automatically provide “green lanes” for faster access to government services for “well-behaved” citizens while levying travel bans and other punishments on those who get out of line. 

  • Former FBI Agent: To Preserve His Integrity, Mueller Must Step Aside

    Authored by Kenneth Strange, op-ed via The Hill,

    It was painful to witness. One of our own – a deputy FBI director no less – was fired barely a day or two away from retirement and a certain pension. And now Andrew McCabe faces possible federal charges for lying to other federal agents, charges that Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller knows all too well and is wielding with great effect in the Russian collusion case.

    Still, I wonder about Mueller. McCabe, Peter Strzok and James Comey all are public servants who former FBI Director Mueller mentored, supervised or knew well. It has got to be hugely disappointing for Mueller to stand by and watch the people who he managed, who worked for and were loyal to him, and who he was fond of become a part of this train wreck. As a former supervisor, Mueller is accountable for those people he supervised — for the good and the bad. How does he feel about it? We don’t know. He remains mute.

    We all know about Mueller’s stellar career in the military, in the Department of Justice and with the FBI. Mueller played a key role in enhancing the FBI’s image at a seminal moment in bureau history. And he should be and has been lauded for his courage and tireless service to the country. Everyone I know at the bureau and at the DOJ has had good things to say about Mueller. More importantly, the consensus among law enforcement and beyond is that Bob Mueller is a man of unquestionable integrity.

    But that was then and this is now. 

    Mueller’s first mistake was in having Strzok as part of his “dream” team of lawyers and investigators. I thought Mueller would have been a better judge of character. It also begs the question why Strzok would be selected to work on both the Hillary Clinton email investigation and the Russian collusion case. It should have been one or the other – that’s common sense. 

    In fairness to Mueller, when he discovered that Strzok, one of his favorite investigators, was involved in conduct unbecoming an FBI agent, he acted immediately and removed him from his team. But Mueller kept that news quiet and away from the public for several months. That, in itself, seems out of character for Mueller.

    While Peter Strzok still lurks in the basement of the Hoover Building, the optics could not be worse for Mueller and his impartial investigation. His team has worked diligently and for long hours to find “the goods” on an array of unsuspecting and discrete individuals. It would be a shame to have their good work impugned by those who would accuse Mueller of a conflict of interest — that he is perceived as too close to the same people who initiated the allegation of Russian collusion.

    As it stands now, the credibility of the special’s counsel’s investigation is steadily eroding. The longer it goes on with Mueller, the man behind the curtain, the less effective the investigation and its results.

    Mr. Mueller, show the American people what my colleagues in law enforcement already know — that you are a man of great wisdom and integrity. Do the honorable thing and recuse yourself from the Russian collusion investigation. The DOJ requires a special prosecutor without ties to Jim Comey, Andrew McCabe and Peter Strzok. The investigation will get done; don’t worry about that. Your team will see to it. 

    Mr. Mueller, are you listening? You restored public confidence in the bureau.

    Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) called you a “great American.” You are still thought of highly. Step aside with dignity and let the investigation play itself out without any further controversy about you, the FBI and your team. The American people deserve no less.

    *  *  *

    Kenneth Strange served the FBI as a member of the Joint Terrorism Task Force in Newark, New Jersey and as Special Agent in Charge of the Department of Justice Office of Inspector General in Los Angeles. He is presently the vice president of business development for an international investigative services company.

  • Top US General Says American Troops Should Be Ready To Die For Israel

    I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same…” This is the oath of enlistment that every American military service member or federal employee takes upon entry into government service (with slight variation for commissioned officers).

    With the largest joint U.S.-Israeli air defense exercise ever conducted having recently concluded, which involved over 2,500 American service personnel, and in the midst of heightened Israeli involvement in the Syrian war, we find ourselves asking…

    Are US troops ready to fight and to die for America’s Israel’s defense? …We think not, but there are US generals out there enthusiastically promoting the idea.

    Brig.-Gen Zvika Haimovitch, the head of the IDF’s Aerial Defense Division and US Air Force 3rd AF Commander Lt. Gen. Richard Clark. Image source: Jerusalem Post.

    Earlier this month, in the midst of the 9th annual 12-day massive joint exercise named “Juniper Cobra” which was hailed in Israeli media as the largest of its kind, simulating a “battle on three fronts” (namely, Syria-Lebanon-Gaza Strip) US Third Air Force Commander Lt. Gen. Richard Clark spelled out just such a scenario wherein US troops could be asked to fight and to die for defense of America Israel – even to the point of being placed under Israeli commanders responsible for battlefield decision making. 

    While major joint military exercises involving significant troop deployments are nothing new for the US and its allies (Juniper Cobra itself has been conducted annually for nearly a decade), Lt. Gen. Clark’s words to Israeli media are truly precedent setting and shocking, especially as he is among the highest ranking military officers in the US armed forces.

    It is well worth reading the alarming scenario Gen. Clark laid out while speaking to the Jerusalem Post in its entirety:

    “The United States and Israel enjoy a strong and enduring military-to-military partnership built on a trust that has been developed over decades of cooperation,” said USAF Third Air Force commander Lt.-Gen. Richard Clark, who also serves as the commander for the deploying Joint Task Force – Israel.

    “The Juniper Cobra exercises continue to strengthen this relationship, providing us with the opportunity to bolster interoperability and develop seamless integration with our Israeli partners.”

    According to Clark, the US and Israeli troops will work side-by-side under each other’s relevant chain of command.

    But this is where Clark pushes far across the normative “military-to-military partnership” characteristic of joint drills with other allied nations. He says that US troops should be prepared to die for the Jewish State:

    “As far as decision-making, it is a partnership,” he continued, stressing nonetheless that “at the end of the day it is about the protection of Israel – and if there is a question in regards to how we will operate, the last vote will probably go to Zvika [Brig.-Gen. Zvika Haimovitch, head of the IDF’s Aerial Defense Division].”

    Washington and Israel have signed an agreement which would see the US come to assist Israel with missile defense in times of war and, according to [Israeli commander] Haimovitch, “I am sure once the order comes we will find here US troops on the ground to be part of our deployment team to defend the State of Israel.”

    And those US troops who would be deployed to Israel, are prepared to die for the Jewish state, Clark said. “We are ready to commit to the defense of Israel anytime we get involved in a kinetic fight there is always the risk that there will be casualties. But we accept that – as every conflict we train for and enter, there is always that possibility,” he said.

    And it appears that both military leaders are in agreement on this point – that they are ready and willing to put US troops in harm’s way in pursuit of Israeli defense policy.

    Disturbingly, Clark acknowledges willingness for life-and-death battlefield decisions impacting American soldiers to be placed in the hands of the Israeli chain of command in saying: “if there is a question in regards to how we will operate, the last vote will probably go to [Israeli General] Zvika.”

    While in more stable times in the Middle East, Clark’s words might possibly be dismissed as hyperbole and misplaced enthusiasm for “the mission” – his words come as Israel is already actively involved on two fronts: Gaza and Syria. And according to many analysts and reports, including one recently leaked internal Israeli defense memo, Israel is ramping up for devastating engagement along a third front as Tel Aviv continues to view Lebanese Hezbollah to its north as the prime threat to Israeli security.

    Should broader war break out between Israel, Hezbollah, Iran, and Syria, will US troops who find themselves working closely with the IDF be forced to obey the commands of Israeli generals, even to the point of death? We can’t find anything in the oath of enlistment or the Constitution [federal statute in 10 U.S.C. 502, and based in Article VI of the Constitution] that requires US citizens or soldiers to defend and fight for a foreign nation.

  • Six Things We Can Learn About US Plutocracy By Looking At Jeff Bezos

    Authored by Caitlin Johnstone via Medium.com,

    I often look at Jeff Bezos when trying to understand how American oligarchy functions for a few reasons.

    Firstly, currently occupying the number one slot on Forbes’ billionaires list, he is the top dog. He figured out how to play the plutocracy game quickly, and how to play it better than anyone else.

    Second, our civilization is currently headed on a clear trajectory deeper and deeper into Orwellian tech dystopia if we don’t turn things around or drive humanity into extinction first. The new money tech plutocrats own the foundation of that dark future, and we should all keep a very, very close eye on them on general principles as well as to get a read on where things are headed.

    Lastly and most importantly, as a new money plutocrat Bezos has had to build his empire with high visibility in the information age. The old money plutocrats built their kingdoms in much darker times, with some families setting the foundations of their rule hundreds of years ago when there was very little in the way of newspaper coverage, and certainly no alternative media scrutinizing power. Bezos’ wheelings and dealings are above ground to a much greater extent, because he’s had to do everything in the public eye.

    With that in mind, here are six things we can learn about how US plutocracy operates by looking at Jeff Bezos.

    1. The rich rule America because of a system wherein money translates directly into political power.

    Amazon has increased its spending on Washington lobbying by 400 percent in the last five years, far in excess of its competition. Bezos hasn’t been doing this to be charitable. With growing antitrust concerns, taxation to avoid, lucrative Pentagon deals to secure, and what some experts are describing as an agenda to control the underlying infrastructure of the economy, he needs Washington on his side.

    Plutocrats do not pour large fortunes into lobbying campaigns without reason. They do it because it works.

    A 2014 study by Princeton University found that while wealthy Americans have a great deal of sway over US policy and behavior, ordinary Americans have virtually none. This is because corporate lobbying and campaign financing have made the bribery of public officials perfectly legal as plutocrat-championed legislation like 1976’s Buckley v. Valeo, 1978’s First National Bank of Boston v. Bellotti as well as the infamous Citizens United v. FEC has created a system where money translates directly into political power.

    2. Because money equals power and power is relative, plutocrats are naturally incentivized to keep the public poor.

    Plutocrats necessarily rule such an oligarchic system as surely as kings rule a kingdom. But if everyone is king, then no one is king. If your entire empire is built on a system where money equals power, then you are necessarily incentivized to keep money out of the hands of the public while amassing as much as possible for yourself.

    The larger the Amazon empire grows, the more of its competition dies and the lower wages get. At the hottest point in the 2016 Democratic party primary, Bezos’ Washington Post ran sixteen smear pieces in sixteen hours against Senator Bernie Sanders, who is largely responsible for bringing the word “oligarchy” into mainstream consciousness.

    Sanders famously ran a campaign powered by small donations averaging 27 dollars. The less money people have, the less of those kinds of donations they can afford to make, and the less political influence the masses can wield. With a majority of Americans already unable to afford even a thousand dollar emergency, it doesn’t take much more squeeze to kill all hope of another populist insurgency of that sort.

    Power is relative and money is power, so the poorer you are, the more powerful the plutocrats become.

    3. Controlling the media is very important to plutocrats.

    Jeff Bezos, the most crafty plutocrat alive, did not purchase the Washington Postin 2013 because he expected newspapers to make a lucrative resurgence. He purchased it so that he could ensure exactly what WaPo did to Bernie Sanders in 2016. The neoliberal Orwellian establishment that Bezos is building his empire upon requires a propaganda mouthpiece, so Bezos purchased a long-trusted US newspaper to accomplish that. WaPo is now easily the most virulently pro-establishment among all large mainstream publications, not just defending establishment narratives but actively attacking anyone who challenges them.

    The current system which only serves the wealthy and the powerful cannot exist without nonstop advertising convincing the American public that the status quo is in their best interest. Plutocrat-owned corporate media is used to manufacture consent for that system; for the economic system, for the wars which prop it up, for the politicians which the plutocrats own and operate, for the political system which they have infiltrated every level of. The ability to manipulate the way the public thinks is an essential part of plutocratic rule.

    4. Plutocrats form alliances with defense and intelligence agencies.

    Jeff Bezos is a contractor with the CIA and sits on a Pentagon advisory board. He is doing everything he can to cozy up and ingratiate himself to the establishment on which his empire is built, up to and including kicking WikiLeaks off Amazon servers in 2010. This dances very creepily with Amazon’s involvement in surveillance systems and digital “assistance” devices like Alexa.

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    If you want to be a millionaire in the current system, you can probably do so with luck, privilege, talent and hard work. If you want to be a billionaire, you’ve got to learn how to collaborate with existing power structures. Due to the extreme opacity of those power structures in America hidden behind the veil of government secrecy, it is hard to know exactly what forms those alliances take, but they clearly do happen as a glance at Bezos’ career shows.

    5. The people willing to do anything it takes to get to the top are the ones who get there.

    Normal human beings would have a difficult time knowing businesses are dying and workers are getting poorer as their empire grows. Jeff Bezos just keeps growing. He will happily collaborate with depraved intelligence agencies, manipulate and propagandize Americans, and expand the gulf between the rich and the poor just to be king of the world.

    This is the sort of person who rises to the top in unregulated capitalist systems. Money rewards people who have shut down (or are born without) that part of themselves which empathizes and is made uncomfortable by exploiting and harming others. In a system where money rewards sociopathy and money equals power, that means we necessarily wind up in a system that is ruled by sociopaths. Those plutocrats form alliances with each other and with defense and intelligence agencies to ensure the continuation and expansion of their empires, and that alliance is currently king of America.

    6. It will never be enough for them.

    Jeff Bezos is worth 131.5 billion dollars as of this writing, and he is getting moreambitious, not less. He doesn’t need that money to buy more stuff; it isn’t about money for him. It’s about power. The impulse to rise to the top of your monkey tribe is an impulse buried deep within our evolutionary heritage, and when that impulse isn’t checked by empathy for your fellow man it creates an unquenchable drive to grow and grow in invincible power no matter what kind of suffering that creates.

    This explains why the world is the way it is today, with billionaires making so much money last year alone that they could end extreme poverty for our entire planet seven times over, but don’t. With Americans dying of underinsurance and exposure on the streets while billions of dollars are poured into bombing poor people overseas. With tensions escalating between two nuclear superpowers over some petty geopolitical agendas. With the Arctic warming at an astonishing rate while rainforests and biodiversity vanish perhaps forever.

    It will never be enough. They will keep taking and taking and taking and taking, killing and killing and killing and killing, until they have it all and everything is dead. They lack the part of themselves which stops that from happening. This is a vehicle with no brakes.

    We need to change the system which enables these depraved individuals to rise to the top and rule over us. Governments should serve people, not omnicidal, ecocidal sociopathic oligarchs. We must take our world back from these monsters.

    *  *  *

    Thanks for reading! My daily articles are entirely reader-funded, so if you enjoyed this piece please consider sharing it around, liking me on Facebook, following me on Twitter, bookmarking my website, checking out my podcast, throwing some money into my hat on Patreon or Paypal, or buying my new book Woke: A Field Guide for Utopia Preppers.

  • Obama's Former Campaign Director Makes Bombshell Claim: Facebook Was "On Our Side"

    The recent controversy and escalating scandal over Facebook’s decision to ban Trump-linked political data firm Cambridge Analytica over the use of data harvested through a personality app under the guise of academic research has opened a veritable Pandora’s box of scandal for the Silicon Valley social media giant. 

    Carol Davidsen, who served as Obama’s director of integration and media analytics during his 2012 campaign (in her LinkedIn profile she says she was responsible for “The Optimizer” & “Narwhal” big data analytics platforms), claims – with evidence, that Facebook found out about a massive data-mining operation they were conducting to “suck out the whole social graph” in order to target potential voters. After Facebook found out, they knowingly allowed them to continue doing it because they were supportive of the campaign. 

    “[M]ore than 1 million Obama backers who signed up for the [Facebook-based app] gave the campaign permission to look at their Facebook friend lists. In an instant, the campaign had a way to see the hidden young voters. Roughly 85% of those without a listed phone number could be found in the uploaded friend lists. What’s more, Facebook offered an ideal way to reach them,reads an article Davidsen posted as a prelude to her postings. 

    In a series of Sunday night tweets, Davidsen explained how the Obama campaign was able to use Facebook data to “append to our email lists.”

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    When Facebook found out about the data mining for political purposes – the same thing they just banned Cambridge Analytica for doing, they didn’t stop us.”

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    Facebook even “came to office in the days following election recruiting & were very candid that they allowed us to do things they wouldn’t have allowed someone else to do because they were on our side.”  

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    So – it seems that Facebook has selective standards when it comes to their data collection policy. 

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    Cambridge Analytica bought data harvested using a personality app called “thisisyourdigitallife,” created by two psychology professors. When CA was asked to stop and delete all of the harvested data, they did – however Facebook banned Cambridge Analytics and their parent company SCL after an anonymous source which Facebook won’t disclose reported that not all of the data had been deleted. 

    So the 2012 Obama campaign was scraping data from Facebook, got caught, and was specifically told they were allowed to do things “they wouldn’t have allowed someone else to do because they were on our side.

    Davidsen then tweeted “I am also 100% positive that Facebook activity recruits and staffs people that are on the other side.”

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    Funny she should say that!

    Turns out one of the two founding directors of Global Science Research (GSR), which sold the data to Cambridge Analyticsis employed by Facebook!

    Joseph Chancellor was one of two founding directors of Global Science Research (GSR), the company that harvested Facebook data using a personality app under the guise of academic research and later shared the data with Cambridge Analytica.

    He was hired to work at Facebook as a quantitative social psychologist around November 2015, roughly two months after leaving GSR, which had by then acquired data on millions of Facebook users.

    Chancellor is still working as a researcher at Facebook’s Menlo Park headquarters in California, where psychologists frequently conduct research and experiments using the company’s vast trove of data on more than 2 billion users. –The Guardian.

    And as the broader public has merely scratched the surface of the tangled webs politicized social media platforms weave, Facebook’s Chief Security Officer has already decided to get the hell out of dodge. One can only imagine what some real digging would unveil.

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Today’s News 19th March 2018

  • German Interior Minister Calls For Suspension Of Schengen, National Border Controls

    Germany’s populist, anti-immigrant AfD Party placed third in the recent elections, but judging by some recent by the newly-formed German government, they may as well have won.

    Last Friday Germany’s new Interior Minister Horst Seehofer – a member of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s CSU Bavarian allies who are further to the right than her own Christian Democrats – declared that “Islam does not belong to Germany“, contradicting former German president Christian Wulff who fueled a debate over immigration in 2010 by saying “Islam was part of Germany” and also set out hardline immigration policies in his first major interview with Bild published last week.

    He also said that he would classify more states as “safe” countries of origin, which would make it easier to deport failed asylum seekers. The statements – an obvious attempt to court populist voters – come after Merkel’s conservatives, and their coalition allies – the Social Democrats – lost ground to the anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in elections last year.

    As Reuters noted, Seehofer was particularly keen to show his party is tackling immigration ahead of Bavaria’s October regional election, when the AfD is expected to enter that state assembly. “Of course the Muslims living here do belong to Germany,” Seehofer said before going on to say Germany should not give up its own traditions or customs, which had Christianity at their heart. “My message is: Muslims need to live with us, not next to us or against us,” he said.

    In an amusing response from Andre Poggenburg, head of the AfD in the eastern state of Saxony, he said that Seehofer was copying his party with a view to Bavaria’s October regional election: “Horst Seehofer has taken this message from our manifesto word for word,” he said.

    Well, we imagine Andre will be even angrier when over the weekend Seehofer again caused controversy by calling for national border controls, just as the EU wants them to be eased: “the EU was failing to control the external border” Germany’s new interior minister said.

    “Not that many border points in Germany are permanently occupied,” Seehofer told German weekly newspaper Die Welt am Sonntag, adding: “We will now discuss whether that needs to change.”

    Seehofer also appealed for the suspension of the Schengen Agreement, which allows free movement within the EU bloc: “Internal border checks [between EU member states] must be in place so long as the EU fails to effectively control the external border,” he said quoted by Deutsche Welle, adding: “I don’t see it being able to do this in the near future.”

    In short, long gone are the days of Merkel’s “Open Door” policy which directly resulted in the sharp drop in support for Merkel’s ruling coalition.

    Germany’s temporarily reintroduced border controls continue until May 12 and have been imposed on the land border with Austria and on flight connections from Greece because of the “security situation in Europe and threats resulting from the continuous secondary movements,” according to the European Commission.

    Seehofer’s comments follow EU demands in February that Germany and four other Schengen members — Austria, Denmark, Sweden and Norway — lift their border controls when the current agreed terms run out in May.

    Germany was the first EU country to reintroduce internal controls in September 2015 when the country was flooded with over 1 million middle-eastern immigrants, mostly Syrian refugees. Authorities opened checkpoints along the border with Austria through which tens of thousands of refugees from the Middle East and North Africa were entering Germany.

    But wait, it gets better.

    In a stunning rebuke of Brussels hypocrisy, Seehofer also accused the EU of adopting an unhelpful and “lecturing tone” toward countries in eastern Europe over plans to distribute refugees throughout the bloc. He said a more productive approach could see eastern European countries sending more personnel to the external border or providing more financing for the border in exchange for accepting fewer refugees.

    The 68-year-old former Bavarian premier is one of the most conservative senior members of the Merkel’s new coalition government with the Social Democrats. At this rate he may become the head of the AfD by the next elections…

  • Things Must Be Serious, Everyone's Lying

    Authored by Tom Luongo,

    European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker had a moment of clarity once.  He famously said, “When things get serious, you have to lie.”

    Given the state of affairs in his beloved European Union right now Mr. Juncker and company are doing a lot of lying.

    It is rare in politics to get that kind of honesty from a politician, especially one currently in office.  But, Juncker’s statement shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone who is even a semi-serious political observer.

    It’s why I find it funny that the Democrats and Antifa-Left get so bent out of shape when Donald Trump exaggerates or outright lies.  To him it’s a tactic.  Catching Donald Trump in a falsehood is like trying to ladle water with a sieve.

    So, by the Juncker Maxim, things must be getting very serious because the amount and type of lies being thrown around by people who are supposed to know better have been staggering.

    To the point that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said, “I simply don’t have any normal terms left to describe all this.”

    Lavrov has been the world’s most effective diplomat over the past few years, effectively talking to and cutting deals with people who should hate him and Russia’s policies.  What it highlights is that Lavrov and his boss, Vladimir Putin, have been effective simply because they make a deal and keep to it.

    They are the opposite of Mr. Juncker.  When things get serious they become honest, speaking with one voice.

    Part of that comes from having a single administration in power for the past 17 years.  It’s easy to keep to agreements when those in power don’t change.  The U.S.’s diplomatic history with North Korea, for example, highlights the problems of shifting domestic political winds in Washington.

    But, that part stems from the way these men comport themselves on international stage.

    So, watching the hyperventilations of of Theresa “Gypsum Lady” May and her Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson over the poisoning of Former Russian double-agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia means there is a lot more going on here than anyone cares to admit.

    The quick reversals from European leaders as well as Donald Trump from their initial skepticism of May and Johnson’s bloviating tells me that not only are they lying but they are being forced to lie by some vaguely unseen hand.

    Just Blame Putin-stan!

    It’s not just that the Neocons are losing, like I talked about in my last article.  It is that stench of desperation that’s everywhere right now.

    The level of histrionics, lying and insanity over Former Assistant FBI Director Andrew McCabe’s firing is telling.  From McCabe himself, to his disgraced former boss, James Comey, the level of mendacity, chutzpah and, frankly, evil on display is impressive.

    I guess the situation’s been serious for a long time for the lies to come this easily to their tongues.

    This week we had the staged walk-outs by high school students over the Parkland, Fl shooting calling for gun control.  How desperate are those clinging to power behind the scenes that they’ve turned to weaponizing mal-educated children to do their bidding?

    david hogg

    His Ideas Resonated Better in the Original German

    The French Foreign Ministry instructing its diplomats to not travel to Syria is also telling.  It’s all about lying to support the narrative that Assad and Putin are the bad guys.

    The Reuters article I just linked to spends more column inches perpetuating the lie that there are no humanitarian corridors in Eastern Ghouta, Syria, even though there are plenty images, video and reports of thousands of civilians having been liberated from ISIS/Al-Qaeda-linked jihadists.

    But it mentions reports of chlorine gas attacks, again neglecting to say anything about the Syrian Army liberating a major chemical weapons facility in their advances against US-backed proxies.

    How bad is the situation behind the scenes in the financial markets that Goldman-Sachs CEO Lloyd “Doin’ God’s Work” Blankfein suddenly decides it’s time to step down?  Derivative book that bad, Lloyd?

    Or did you bet that Gary Cohn would get Trump to heel to allow Goldman to finish destroying Europe?

    Long-established diplomatic norms and rules of conduct are simply thrown out the window because they need to be to induce hysteria to take people to war, otherwise, a war-weary, anxiety-ridden population will turn on their own governments.

    So, Theresa May tells Russia to prove to her they’re innocent to distract from her betrayals on Brexit.

    boris-johnson.jpg

    This is a joke, Right?

    Boris Johnson threatens Putin directly and the moron in charge of Britain’s defense department screeches for the Russians to ‘shut up and go away.’  Presumably he said it from his safe space rubbing his safety pin like Captain Queeg.

    Meanwhile Mr. Juncker continues to lie about everything as it pertains to Brexit negotiations because the EU’s financial situation must be that serious.  If it weren’t they wouldn’t be trying to shake the U.K. down for tens of billions of euros.

    Why So Serious?!

    Look around you, step back from the craziness and see the bigger picture.  When you do you just see a bunch of incompetent, venal people covering their asses.  While a lot of what I write here could be considered ‘conspiratorial’ I would disagree.

    In fact, I rarely, if ever, chalk up to conspiracy that which incompetence explains far better.  As a root cause analyst, I prefer Occam’s Razor to Alex Jones.

    Yes, there are groups of people with power conspiring to achieve personal and societal goals which are anathema to life and decency.

    But, that doesn’t mean that because they have power they are competent at wielding it.  In fact, power makes you lazy.  Winning makes you complacent and, eventually, stupid.

    Does anyone with any shred of self-respect believe that thirteen Russian trolls armed with Tweetium could derail Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign?  Really?

    When the more obvious answer is that Hillary and her backers thought they had perfected the art of rigging an election and never conceived of losing.  It never crossed their minds until a few days before the election and internal polling forced Obama to campaign in Michigan on her behalf.

    And he only did that to help himself, since he was in up to his neck in all of her dirty laundry.

    The Theory of the All-Powerful Putin is a childish and nonsensical as the Alt-Right’s blaming Jews for everything.

    The Gypsum Lady is trying to save her government by invoking it now.  So is Nikki Haley at the U.N., Mika Brzezinski at MSNBC, George Soros and David Brock, the leadership at CNN, Google, Facebook and Twitter.  The bigger the lies get, the more desperate you know they are.

    All of the Obama administration traitors — Samantha Power, James Brennan, Susan Rice, Robert Mueller, Comey, McCabe, Eric Holder, etc. — lie every time they open their mouths. It their narrative fails it means the end of not only their careers, but the plans of the incompetent globalist oligarchs who fund and power them.

    And those are the stakes in play here.

    Ye Gods, and I haven’t even brought up the Saudi Arabians, yet.  Or the attempted military coup against the U.S. pet in Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, from within his own government, no less.

    Talk about gross incompetence!

    Cooler Heads or Heads in a Cooler?

    While I’m not sanguine about how all of this plays out, I refuse to give into hysteria and add to the cacophony.  It serves no purpose.

    The markets still believe, as they always do, that ‘cooler heads will prevail.’ But, markets aren’t allowed to believe anything else.  The central banks ensure that.  The sheer size of the money at stake makes it nearly impossible to move much of it without inducing even more panic.

    So, the default position of most money managers is sit tight and hope.

    But, hope is not a plan or a path to the stars.  It is, as I’ve said before, the worst thing in the world — that which you have when you have nothing else.  But, changes are coming, war or the collapse of the post-WWII institutional order or both.

    As I’ve pointed out, banks are getting nervous, emerging market central banks are positioned for radical currency defense.  Rates are rising and dollar liquidity is falling.  Bitcoin and gold are screaming this.  If there was ever a time to get to cash it’s now.

    The acceleration of events since Putin’s speech on March 1st is itself accelerating.  Windows are closing fast.  It’s time to get serious.

    *  *  *

    To support the production of more work like this and get access to Tom’s investment ideas and portfolio advice sign up for the Gold Goats ‘n Guns Investment Newsletter at my Patreon page.  

  • 80% Of US State Department's Top Jobs Are Unfilled

    With President Trump’s administration losing senior staff at a rate of one every 17 days (so far), and Democrats slow-rolling the confirmation process, the firing of Rex Tillerson has left an already-thin State Department, practically leader-less.

    After dismissing Tillerson, the White House also fired Steve Goldstein, Tillerson’s undersecretary of state for public diplomacy and public affairs, and announced that State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert would fill the post on an acting basis.

    Eight of 10 top jobs at the State Department are now vacant, either because staff have left, been fired or the posts were never filled…

     

    Those vacant assignments include positions overseeing the agency’s role in U.S. trade policy, stopping the spread of nuclear weapons, refugee issues and efforts to counter human trafficking.

    Bloomberg reports that morale at the department was already low as staff rebelled against Tillerson’s planned restructuring, opposed Trump’s policies and watched experienced colleagues shifted into more menial jobs, like dealing with Freedom of Information Act requests.

    Some will be glad to see Tillerson gone.

    Most, though, will wonder if life will be any different under his successor.

  • Russia's Reaction To The Insults Of The West Is Political Suicide

    Authored by Peter Koenig via The Saker blog,

    The onslaught of western Russia bashing in the past days, since the alleged poison attack by a Soviet-era nerve agent, Novichok (the inventor of which, by the way, lives in the US), on a Russian double agent, Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia, has been just horrifying. Especially by the UK.

    Starting with PM May, who outright accused Russia of using chemical weapons (CW) on UK grounds, without delivering any evidence. Strangely, there is no indication where Skripal and his daughter are, in which hospital the pair is being treated, no poison analysis is being published, they cannot be visited; there is absolutely no evidence of the substance they allegedly have been poisoned with – do Sergei and Yulia actually exist?

    As a consequence, Theresa May expels 23 Russian diplomats, who have to leave the UK within a week. Then came Boris Johnson, the Foreign Minister clown, also an abject liar. He said, no he yelled, at his fellow parliamentarians that it was “Overwhelmingly likely, that Putin personally ordered the spy attack.” This accusation out of nothing against the Russian President is way more than a deep breach in diplomatic behavior, it is a shameful insult. – And no evidence is provided. Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, in fact, said that Johnson’s personal attack on President Putin was “unforgivable”.

    Not to miss out on the bashing theatre, UK Defense Secretary, Gavin Williamson, got even more insolent, Russia “should go away and shut up”. In response to all this demonizing Russia for an alleged crime, for which absolutely no proof has been provided, Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova, said that the undiplomatic comments meant that the British authorities are nervous and have “something to hide,”. Lavrov also strongly objected, wanted to initiate a joint UK-Russia investigation into the case – is he dreaming? – and responded to a question of diplomatic retaliation, yes, that Russia will also expel UK diplomates ‘soon’.

    There is no doubt that the UK acted as Washington’s poodle. In the course of this anti-Russia tirade, Trump twittered that he fully supported UK’s position. Indeed, the European puppets, Macron, Merkel, May and their chief, The Donald, signed a joint statement blaming Russia for the nerve gas attack on the former double agent, “There is no plausible alternative explanation than that Russia was to blame for the attack”. Bingo, that says it all. The presstitute picks it up and airs it to the seven corners of this globe – and the western sheeple are brainwashed once again: The Russian did it.

    Well we know that. But the real point I want to make is that Russia always reacts to such nonsensical and outright false accusations; Russia always responds, rejects of course the accusations but usually with lengthy explanations, and with suggestions on how to come to the truth – as if the UK and the west would give a shit about the truth – why are they doing that? Why are you Russia, even responding?

    That is foolish sign of weakness. As if Russia was still believing in the goodness of the west, as if it just needed to be awakened. What Russia is doing, every time, not just in this Skripal case, but in every senseless and ruthless attack, accusations about cyber hacking, invading Ukraine, annexing Crimea, and not to speak about the never-ending saga of Russia-Gate, Russian meddling and hacking into the 2016 US Presidential elections, favoring Trump over Hillary. Everybody with a half brain knows it’s a load of crap. Even the FBI and CIA said that there was no evidence. So, why even respond? Why even trying to undo the lies, convince the liars that they, Russia, are not culpable?

    Every time the west notices Russia’s wanting to be a “good neighbor” – about which the west really couldn’t care less, Russia makes herself more vulnerable, more prone to be accused and attacked and more slandered.

    Why does Russia not just break away from the west? Instead of trying to ‘belong’ to the west? Accept that you are not wanted in the west, that the west only wants to plunder your resources, your vast landmass, they want to provoke you into a war where there are no winners, a war that may destroy entire Mother Earth, but they, the ZionAnglo handlers of Washington, dream that their elite will survive to eventually take over beautiful grand Russia. That’s what they want. The Bashing is a means towards the end. The more people are with them, the easier it is to launch an atrocious war.

    The Skripal case is typical. The intensity with which this UK lie-propaganda has been launched is exemplary. It has brought all of halfwit Europe – and there is a lot of them – under the spell of Russia hating. Nobody can believe that May Merkel, Macron are such blatant liars… that is beyond what they have been brought up with. A lifelong of lies pushed down their throats, squeezed into their brains. Even if something tells them – this is not quite correct, the force of comfort, not leaving their comfort zone- not questioning their own lives – is so strong that they rather cry for War, War against Russia, War against the eternal enemy of mankind. – I sadly remember in my youth in neutral Switzerland, the enemy always, but always came from the East. He was hiding behind the “Iron Curtain”.

    The West is fabricating a new Iron Curtain. But while doing that, they don’t realize they are putting a noose around their own neck. Russia doesn’t need the west, but the west will soon be unable to survive without the East, the future is in the east – and Russia is an integral part of the East, of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), that encompasses half the world’s population and controls a third of the world’s economic output.

    Mr. Putin, you don’t need to respond to insults from the west, because that’s what they are, abusive insults. The abject slander that Johnson boy threw at you is nothing but a miserable insult; you don’t need to respond to this behavior. You draw your consequences.

    Dear President Putin, Dear Mr. Lavrov, Let them! Let them holler. Let them rot in their insanity. – Respond to the UK no longer with words but with deeds, with drastic deeds. Close their embassy. Give all embassy staff a week to vacate your country, then you abolish and eviscerate the embassy the same way the US abolished your consulates in Washington and San Francisco – a bit more than a year ago. Surely you have not forgotten. Then you give all Brits generously a month to pack up and leave your beautiful country (it can be done – that’s about what Washington is forcing its vassals around the globe to do with North Korean foreign laborers); block all trade with the UK (or with the entire West for that matter), block all western assets in Russia, because that’s the first thing the western plunderers will do, blocking Russian assets abroad. Stealing is in their blood.

    Mr. Putin, You don’t need to respond to their lowly abusive attacks, slanders, lies. You and Russia are way above the level of this lowly western pack. Shut your relation to the west. You have China, the SCO, the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), Russia is part of the OBI – President Xi’s One Belt Initiative – the multi-trillion development thrive, emanating from China, connecting continents – Asia, Africa, Europe, South America – with infrastructure, trade, creating hundreds of millions of decent jobs, developing and promoting science and culture and providing hundreds of millions of people with a decent life.

    What would the west do, if suddenly they had no enemy, because the enemy has decided to ignore them and take a nap? China will join you.

    Everything else, responding, justifying, explaining, denying the most flagrant lies, trying to make them believe in the truth is not only a frustrating waste of time, it’s committing political suicide. You will never win. The west doesn’t give a hoot about the truth – they have proven that for the last two thousand years or more. And in all that time, not an iota of conscience has entered the west’s collective mind. The west cannot be trusted. Period.

  • Ex-FBI Assistant Director: There Was A "High-Ranking" Plot To Protect Hillary; Brennan Leaked "Weekly"

    Former Assistant FBI Director James Kallstrom said that there was a plot among “high-ranking” people throughout government – “not just the FBI,” who coordinated in a plot to help Hillary Clinton avoid indictment. 

    I think we have ample facts revealed to us during this last year and a half that high-ranking people throughout government, not just the FBI, high-ranking people had a plot to not have Hillary Clinton, you know, indicted,” Kallstrom told Fox News‘ Maria Bartiromo.

    I think it goes right to the top. And it involves that whole strategy – they were gonna win, nobody would have known any of this stuff, and they just unleashed the intelligence community. Look at the unmaskings. We haven’t heard anything about that yet. Look at the way they violated the rights of all those American citizens.”

    Brennan the leaker?

    Expounding on the “high-ranking” plot to protect Hillary Clinton and hurt Donald Trump, Kallstrom rattled off a list of involved parties – ending with Obama’s CIA director, John Brennan…

    Kallstrom: There’s no question that he and McCabe and others in the FBI and the Justice Department, and, we’re gonna find out the State Department and the National Security Advisor to the President, and the Deputy National Security advisor, and John Brennan.

    Brennan notably fired off an aggressive tweet after FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe’s Friday night firing, stating “When the full extent of your venality, moral turpitude, and political corruption becomes known, you will take your rightful place as a disgraced demagogue in the dustbin of history. You may scapegoat Andy McCabe, but you will not destroy America…America will triumph over you.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Kallstrom and Bartiromo discussed Brennan’s tweet, noting that the ex-CIA director had projected extreme animosity towards Trump, and was directly involved in leaks to the press

    Kallstrom: My sources tell me that he was leaking almost weekly and daily. He was taking that bunch of phony crap supposedly from Russia, and peddling that through the Congress, all his buddies in the media, he was one of the active people. I’ve known him a long time.

    Bartiromo: You think he’s involved?

    Kallstrom: Oh I think he’s involved, absolutely. And I think it goes right to the top Maria.

    In December, Kallstrom spoke with Fox Business News‘s Stewart Varney, where he said that the FBI’s top brass has been conducting a highly politicized witch-hunt, and that a “cabal” of individuals, including McCabe, which set out to undermine Trump. 

    Discussing the infamous “insurance polcy” text, Kallstrom said 

    “People tweet each other and they send text messages, but they don’t plan. The FBI is not in the business of planning to destroy a President of the United States,” adding “I think they were way above their capability. This guy thinks he’s the lone ranger, this Peter Strzok.” 

    If that’s his thinking, and they were obviously in Andy’s office plotting some kind of thing. And I think that some kind of thing is what we’re seeing right now. And we’ve seen for the last, what, ever since he’s been elected we’ve seen this facade and this phony challenge to Trump about collusion and Russia, which nothing could be further from the truth. All the collusion is with the Democrats, and it’s very very depressing to be FBI agents. 99 percent are hard working patriotic guys and girls that come to work for the good of the country.

    And you’ve got this cabal of people. You’ve got this deputy director (McCabe) who should have been out a long time ago for his actions. And then you’ve got Peter Strzok and who knows how many others. –James Kallstrom

  • US CENTCOM Chief Comes Clean: General's Three Stunning Admissions In The Mid-East

    Via Haaretz.com,

    Assad has won, Iran deal should stand and Saudis use American weapons without accountability in Yemen: head of U.S. military’s Central Command’s stunning Congressional testimony

    The top U.S. general in the Middle East testified before Congress this week and dropped several bombshells: from signaled support for the Iran nuclear deal, admitting the U.S. does not know what Saudi Arabia does with its bombs in Yemen and that Assad has won the Syrian Civil War.

    U.S. Army General Joseph Votel said the Iran agreement, which President Donald Trump has threatened to withdraw from, has played an important role in addressing Iran’s nuclear program.

    “The JCPOA addresses one of the principle threats that we deal with from Iran, so if the JCPOA goes away, then we will have to have another way to deal with their nuclear weapons program,” said U.S. Army General Joseph Votel.

    JCPOA, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, is the formal name of the accord reached with Iran in July 2015 in Vienna.

    Trump has threatened to withdraw the United States from the accord between Tehran and six world powers unless Congress and European allies help “fix” it with a follow-up pact. Trump does not like the deal’s limited duration, among other things.

    Votel is head of the U.S. military’s Central Command, which is responsible for the Middle East and Central Asia, including Iran. He was speaking to a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the same day that Trump fired Secretary of State Rex Tillerson after a series of public rifts over policy, including Iran.

    Tillerson had joined Defense Secretary Jim Mattis in pressing a skeptical Trump to stick with the agreement with Iran.

    “There would be some concern (in the region), I think, about how we intended to address that particular threat if it was not being addressed through the JCPOA. … Right now, I think it is in our interest” to stay in the deal, Votel said.

    When a lawmaker asked whether he agreed with Mattis and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Joseph Dunford’s position on the deal,Votel said: “Yes, I share their position.”

    Mattis said late last year that the United States should consider staying in the Iran nuclear deal unless it was proven Tehran was not complying or that the agreement was not in the U.S. national interest.

    A collapse of the Iran nuclear deal would be a “great loss,” the United Nations atomic watchdog’s chief warned Trump recently, giving a wide-ranging defense of the accord.

    Iran has stayed within the deal’s restrictions since Trump took office but has fired diplomatic warning shots at Washington in recent weeks. It said on Monday that it could rapidly enrich uranium to a higher degree of purity if the deal collapsed.

    Syria

    Votel also discussed the situation in Syria at the hearing.

    During the Syrian army’s offensive in eastern Ghouta, more than 1,100 civilians have died. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, backed by Russia and Iran, say they are targeting “terrorist” groups shelling the capital.

    U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley warned on Monday that Washington “remains prepared to act if we must,” if the U.N. Security Council failed to act on Syria.

    Votel said the best way to deter Russia, which backs Assad, was through political and diplomatic channels.

    “Certainly if there are other things that are considered, you know, we will do what we are told. … (But) I don’t recommend that at this particular point,” Votel said, in an apparent to reference to military options.

    Republican Senator Lindsey Graham asked whether it was too strong to say that with Russia and Iran’s help, Assad had “won” the civil war in Syria.

    “I do not think that is too strong of a statement,” Votel said.

    Graham also asked if the United States’ policy on Syria was still to seek the removal of Assad from power.

    “I don’t know that that’s our particular policy at this particular point. Our focus remains on the defeat of ISIS,” Votel said, using an acronym for Islamic State. 

    Saudi Arabia

    In a stunning exchange with Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren, Votel admitted that Centcom doesn’t know when U.S. fuel and munitions are used in Yemen. 

    “General Votel, does CENTCOM track the purpose of the missions it is refueling? In other words, where a U.S.-refueled aircraft is going, what targets it strikes, and the result of the mission?” Warren asked.

    “Senator, we do not,” Votel replied.

    The Senator followed up, citing reports that U.S. munitions have been used against civilians in Yemen, she asked, “General Votel, when you receive reports like this from credible media organizations or outside observers, is CENTCOM able to tell if U.S. fuel or U.S. munitions were used in that strike?”

    “No, senator, I don’t believe we are,” he replied.

    Showing surprise at the general’s response, Warren concluded, “We need to be clear about this: Saudi Arabia’s the one receiving American weapons and American support. And that means we bear some responsibility here. And that means we need to hold our partners and our allies accountable for how those resources are used,” she said.

  • Apple Suppliers Tumble After Report Tim Cook "Secretly" Developing Own Screen

    There is one way to assure that your supply chain is not impacted by the upcoming trade wars: bring all your manufacturing to the host nation and no longer rely on foreign suppliers.

    That’s precisely what Apple appears to be doing because in a move that may cause a dramatic shake-up among the key vendors to the world’s biggest company, Bloomberg reports that Apple is designing and producing its own device displays for the first time, using a secret manufacturing facility near its Cupertino headquarter to make small numbers of the screens for testing purposes; if successful the numbers will grow far bigger.

    In the latest indication that Tim Cook wants to eliminate any supply bottlenecks, and really, any suppliers – recall the historic crash of Dialog Semi which plunged the most in 16 years after a report that Apple would bring its power-management chip production in house – the tech giant is making a significant investment in the development of next-generation MicroLED screens, according to Bloomnerg sources.  MicroLED screens use different light-emitting compounds than the current OLED displays and promise to make future gadgets slimmer, brighter and less power-hungry.

    Since MicroLED screens are more difficult to produce than OLED displays, not to mention expensive, the company almost killed the project a year or so ago, but since then engineers have been making progress and the technology is now at an advanced stage, though consumers will probably have to wait a few years before seeing the results.

    Bloomberg adds that, as noted above, this ambitious undertaking “is the latest example of Apple bringing the design of key components in-house.” And while the company has designed chips powering its mobile devices for several years (see Dialog) its move into displays has the long-term potential to hurt a range of suppliers, from screen makers like Samsung Electronics Co., Japan Display Inc., Sharp Corp. and LG Display Co. to companies like Synaptics Inc. that produce chip-screen interfaces. It may also hurt Universal Display Corp., a leading developer of OLED technology.

    As one would expect, the stocks of several key Apple suppliers have been whacked early in the Asian session, with Japan Display dropping as much as 4.4%, Sharp tumbling up to 3.3%, Samsung sliding 1.4% and BOE Technology Group down 2.7%.

    Analysts, especially Apple bulls, are ecstatic at the opportunity:  Ray Soneira, who runs screen tester DisplayMate Technologies, told Bloomberg tgat bringing the design in-house is a “golden opportunity” for Apple. “Everyone can buy an OLED or LCD screen,” he says. “But Apple could own MicroLED.”

    Because arguably, customers care if the phone they can’t afford at over $1,000 has OLED or MicroLed (spoiler alert: they don’t, what they care about is the price tag).

    And speaking of the price tag, it will only go up as mass producing the new screens will require new manufacturing equipment, and massive new sunk costs. Furthermore, by the time the technology is ready, something else might have supplanted it. Apple could run into insurmountable hurdles and abandon the project or push it back.

    Somewhat bizarrely, Bloomberg downplays its own scoop by saying that “ultimately, Apple will likely outsource production of its new screen technology to minimize the risk of hurting its bottom line with manufacturing snafus. The California facility is too small for mass-production, but the company wants to keep the proprietary technology away from its partners as long as possible, one of the people says. “We put a lot of money into the facility,” this person says. “It’s big enough to get through the engineering builds [and] lets us keep everything in-house during the development stages.

    Which is not good for the stock: any dollar that goes into silly R&D and projects is one less dollar that can be used to buyback AAPL stock.

    Some more details on the not-so-secret project:

    The secret initiative, code-named T159, is overseen by executive Lynn Youngs, an Apple veteran who helped develop touch screens for the original iPhone and iPad and now oversees iPhone and Apple Watch screen technology.

    The 62,000-square-foot manufacturing facility, the first of its kind for Apple, is located on an otherwise unremarkable street in Santa Clara, California, a 15-minute drive from the Apple Park campus in Cupertino and near a few other unmarked Apple offices. There, about 300 engineers are designing and producing MicroLED screens for use in future products. The facility also has a special area for the intricate process of “growing” LEDs.

    Another facility nearby houses technology that handles so-called LED transfers: the process of placing individual pixels into a MicroLED screen. Apple inherited the intellectual property for that process when it purchased startup LuxVue in 2014.

    Apple’s screen development and manufacturing facility in Santa Clara, California

    The complexity of building a screen manufacturing facility meant it took Apple several months to get the California plant operational. Only in recent months have Apple engineers grown confident in their ability to eventually replace screens from Samsung and other suppliers.

    But not for a long, long time.

    As Bloomberg calculates, it’s unlikely that the technology will reach an iPhone for at least three to five years, the people say. While the smartphone is Apple’s cash cow, there is precedent for new screen technologies showing up in the Apple Watch first. When it was introduced in 2014, the Apple Watch had an OLED screen. The technology finally migrated to the iPhone X last year.

    So until MicroLED is ready for the world to see, Apple will still – at least publicly – be all-in on OLED. The company plans to release a second OLED iPhone in the fall, a giant, 6.5-inch model, and is working to expand OLED production from Samsung to also include LG.

    Until then, however, Apple has bigger problems: in a note released on Sunday, Nomura analyst Anne Lee was the latest to slash iPhoneX volume estimates to 12million / 8 million units from previous forecast of 18 million/13m “as many component suppliers have seen very low shipments since February, which could cause low plant capacity utilization rate and poor mix for 1H. She warned that 1Q results could still cast earnings downside risk vs. market expectations.

    And with a market cap of over $900 billion, and a forecast that is priced to perfection, while Tim Cook may be hoping to distract from the overall woes plaguing the company which gambled on ultraexpensive phones and lost with MicroLED factories and other diversions, should demand for the company’s top products continue to deteriorate, Apple’s shareholders are about to be rudely introduced to “imperfection.”

  • Russian Double Agent Reportedly Poisoned Through BMW Air Vents As 38 Others Sickened

    Former Russian double-agent Sergey Skripal may have been poisoned through his BMW E90 320d’s ventilation system, according to ABC News.

    Burgandy E90 320d owned by Skripal

    To accomplish this (and without poisoning themselves), the assassin(s) would have either needed to gain access to the interior of Skripal’s BMW to apply the nerve agent into the vents – or pop the hood, as the cabin filtration system includes a mostly-enclosed pollen filter which draws air from two obscure inlets which would be difficult to access with the hood closed.

     

    ABC also notes that 38 individuals were also affected by the nerve agent – placed in Skripal’s air vents. Perhaps, some have suggested, Skripal and his daughter pulled over to exit the car, left the doors open, and people walking by received a non-lethal dosage. 

    The intelligence officials told ABC News up to 38 individuals in Salisbury have been identified as having been affected by the nerve agent but the full impact is still being assessed and more victims sickened by the agent are expected to be identified –ABC

    The attack sent 21 people to the hospital, as it was originally thought a gift from friendstainted with the nerve agent was opened at a restaurant.

    Skripal had reportedly asked his housekeeper to clean his daughter Yulia’s room on Monday, Feb. 26 in advance of a visit to mark the anniversary of his son’s death. Her travel plan may have activated the assassination attempt.

    Security services now suspect that when Miss Skripal flew out of Moscow, her departure triggered a “red flag” with a hit squad that was being dispatched to assassinate Col Skripal. It is thought that Miss Skripal was being targeted along with her father in a clear message that “traitors” are not tolerated by the Kremlin.

    It is not clear when Miss Skripal landed in the UK, but sources suggest the Russian team sent to kill her father was probably a day behind her. –Telegraph

    Meanwhile, chemical warfare experts from the United States and the UK are said to be working on the investigation.

    “It’s seen here as an attempted murder and premeditated,” rather than an attempt just to sicken Skripal with a non-lethal toxin or scare other Russian ex-spies, an intelligence official told ABC News.

    Another possible clue to the poisoning is that sources told ABC News Skripal was shouting and acting incoherently in a restaurant just before he and his daughter collapsed. Such incoherent behavior could be consistent with the early stages of exposure to a nerve agent.

    Scotland Yard has released surveillance video of Skripal’s car and is asking anyone who saw the vehicle that day to come forward. The police agency declined to comment on new details about the nerve agent attack until it releases information publicly. Julia Macfarlane and Patrick Reevell contributed to this report.

    On Wednesday, the White House said in a statement that it agreed with the British government’s assessment that Russia was responsible for the poisoning of a former Russian spy and his daughter in the United Kingdom.

    “The United States shares the United Kingdom’s assessment that Russia is responsible for the reckless nerve agent attack on a British citizen and his daughter, and we support the United Kingdom’s decision to expel Russian diplomats as a just response,” White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said in the statement.

    “This latest action by Russia fits into a pattern of behavior in which Russia disregards the international rules-based order, undermines the sovereignty and security of countries worldwide, and attempts to subvert and discredit Western democratic institutions and processes. The United States is working together with our allies and partners to ensure that this kind of abhorrent attack does not happen again.”

    Russia, naturally, has repeatedly denied responsibility for the March 4 incident, and warned British Prime Minister Theresa May against considering a cyber-attack or other aggressive retaliation. “A hysterical atmosphere is being created by London,” Russian Ambassador Visaly Nebenzia told the Security Council. “We would like to warn that this will not remain without reaction on our part.”

    The Kremlin has also criticized the UK for taking action before a formal investigation has taken place brokered by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. 

    U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley compared the Skripal attack to North Korea’s use of a nerve agent to assassinate the half-brother of dictator Kim Jong-un — a murder that resulted in the designation of North Korea as a state sponsor of terrorism. She linked the Salisbury incident to the increasingly-regular use of chemical weapons, especially in Syria, and urged Russia to “come clean” about the assassination attempt.

    “The Russians complained recently that we criticize them too much,” she said. “If the Russian government stopped using chemical weapons to assassinate its enemies; and if the Russian government stopped helping its Syrian ally to use chemical weapons to kill Syrian children; and if Russia cooperated with the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons by turning over all information related to this nerve agent, we would stop talking about them. We take no pleasure in having to constantly criticize Russia, but we need Russia to stop giving us so many reasons to do so.”

    Perhaps a formal investigation would reveal how the would-be assassins gained access to Skripal’s air vents – and how that then led to 38 others being poisoned. 

  • The Bond Market Hits A Tipping Point: What That Means For Stocks

    When we earlier discussed the unwillingness of institutional investors to return to the market even as retail investors swing from one mood extreme to another, we showed a chart showing the historical and seemingly relentless selling by virtually every investor class in the past decade, which left just one question for traders: when do the stock buybacks finally stop and put an end to the party?

    Answering that question would also require the response to another, far bigger question: when does the bond market stall out, or in other words, when does the endless demand for yield finally fizzle out?

    For anyone to claim they have the definitive answer would be folly: after all there have been so many prior occasions in which analysts and pundits declared the end of the all consuming bond bid, only to be mocked by investors gorging on even more corporate debt.  And yet based on recent bond sales, it appears that finally investors may be getting full.

    But how is that possible? Just two weeks ago there was an unprecedented $100 billion in bids for CVS’s gargantuan  9-part $40 billion IG deal?

    Well, as Bloomberg reported recently, in a first indication that the saturation point is approaching, there have been far fewer orders coming in for new bonds, relative to what’s for sale. This has resulted in bond-selling companies paying more interest compared with their other debt, according to Bloomberg data, and once the securities start trading, prices have been falling on more than 50% of new issues, an indication that “flipping” bonds for a profit is now only profitable half the time. And flipping for a profit, or loss – as any bond trader knows – is a well-known leading indicator to the overall strength of the bond market.

    This, as Bloomberg notes, is also the latest signal following weeks of declining inflows and even occasional fund outflows, that the IG debt market is losing steam and may be approaching its tipping point after years of torrid gains, amid concerns about rising rates and talk of tariffs weighing on corporate profits.

    “Investors are starting to be a little more disciplined,” said Neuberger Berman PM Bob Summers. “They aren’t just waving in every deal now.”

    To be sure, investors’ restraint amounts to more pain for companies. As we showed recently (see chart below) the average yield on corporate bonds is around its highest levels since January 2012, according to Bloomberg Barclays index data. Even with the previously discussed  CVS Health’s $40 billion blockbuster issue last week, sales volume for new investment-grade corporate debt is at its lowest level so far this year since 2014.

    Meanwhile, it has been a decidedly mixed picture in terms of fund flows, as reduced inflows and occasional outflows from mutual funds and exchange-traded funds have indicated that investors may need some time to digest the pipeline, or as Yuri Seliger, a credit strategist at Bank of America Corp, said “the negatives are winning out right now.”

    To demonstrate that credit finds itself at a sensitive junction, Bloomberg provides the example of Campbell Soup, which sold $5.3 billion of bonds this week to fund its planned acquisition of Snyder’s-Lance Inc.

    Typically, bankers start selling the deal to investors at a relatively high yield compared with Treasuries, which they decrease as demand increases. In this case for the biggest parts of the deal, they never did, and the bonds weakened relative to Treasuries after they were sold.

    Then there is the oversubscription problem, or rather lack thereof: while companies – in credit boom times  – get orders for three or four times as many bonds as are for sale, at the beginning of the week order books were barely two times covered. As a result, borrowers paid yields that were an average of 0.11 percentage points higher on new deals compared with their existing securities last week, a new issue concession much higher than the 0.013 percentage point-average for the year. And – as shown above – yields relative to Treasuries weakened on more than half of new issues on Monday and Tuesday, a recent BofA analysis revealed.

    To be sure, for now the credit weakness is issuer specific – one would have to look hard to find a problem with McDonald’s sale of $1.5 billion of bonds last Wednesday, in a deal that was 4x oversubscribed, and then cut yields on all three tranches relative to price talk; post-break, spreads on all three parts narrowed as of Thursday’s close in New York.

    Meanwhile, as the increasingly tentative market waits to find out how this period of uncertainty ends, some investors are pitching the recent weakness as a buying opportunity largely thanks to ongoing strong cash flow, helped by tax cuts; investors such as Tom Murphy, head of investment-grade credit at Columbia Threadneedle Investments.

    “If fundamentals are unchanged and spreads are wider, shame on us if we’re not buying securities,” Murphy said. “You’re supposed to start taking some bites of the apple here.”

    That may not last long though, as fundamentals are starting to shift with the Fed expected to lift rates three (or more) times this year, retail sales falling for third straight month, amid a near contraction in consumer credit growth.

    Of course, any slowdown in corporate bond purchases would come after years of surging demand; as we have documented previously, the market value of investment-grade bonds has more than doubled over the last 10 years, as investors have snapped up new debt, while the economy has grown by about a third.

    And, going back to the start of the article, this has also allowed companies to issue virtually unlimited amounts of bonds whose proceeds would be used for buybacks. However, should the IG bond market suffer an even moderate hangover, that may not last. For one thing, the incremental yield on equities relative to bonds has shrunk to the lowest level since 2010.

    This in itself could put a significant damped on buybacks. But, more importantly, should the credit weakness spread from the IG sector to high yield, then from a blessing, buybacks may suddenly become a corporate curse as the market mood suddenly shifts, and starts viewing excess leverage as a potential source of instability in a time of rising rates, something we discussed extensively in “Day Of Reckoning” Nears As Goldman Projects A Record $650BN In Stock Buybacks.

    To be sure, it is still early to declare the corporate bond market dead or even comatose, although the leading indicators certainly suggest that a hangover has arrived. For what happens next keep a close eye on the market reaction when the Fed hikes rates on Wednesday, and focus not on stocks but bonds – any further blow out in spread, and certainly yields, will mean that – for the time being at least – the bond issuance window is slamming shut; the (buyback) consequences for stocks may be severe.

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Today’s News 18th March 2018

  • Law Prof: Did McCabe Just Throw Comey Under The Bus For Perjury?

    Fired FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe may have just thrown former FBI Director James Comey under the bus – perhaps intentionally.

    Recall that McCabe was fired for, among other things, an “improper media disclosure.” In other words leaking. 

    In a Saturday morning appearance on CNN with host Michael Smerconish, Constitutional law professor Jonathan Turley suggested that McCabe’s statement following his firing “immediately” raised a flag, which may lead to serious consequences for his former boss. McCabe’s statement reads in part: 

    The OIG investigation has focused on information I chose to share with a reporter through my public affairs officer and a legal counselor. As Deputy Director, I was one of only a few people who had the authority to do that. It was not a secret, it took place over several days, and others, including the Director, were aware of the interaction with the reporter.

    Turley notes “There was one line in the case statement last night that I immediately flagged. Because he said that he had authority to do this and he conferred with the director – the director at the time was James Comey.” 

    “Now, the problem there is that James Comey said under oath that he never leaked information and never approved a leak,” said Turley. “So, if the Inspector General believes this was a leak to the media, it raises serious questions about Comey’s previous testimony and could get him into serious trouble.

    This directly contradicts Comey’s statement under oath that “he never leaked information, and never approved a leak.” Turley continued. “So if the Inspector General believes this was a leak to the media, it raises serious questions about Comey’s previous testimony that could get him into serious trouble.”

    Watch:

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    Turley writes in The Hill:

    McCabe is accused of misleading investigators about allegedly giving information to a former Wall Street Journal reporter about the investigation of Hillary Clinton and the Clinton family’s charitable foundation. McCabe asserts in his post-firing statement that he not only had authority to “share” that information to the media but did so with the knowledge of “the director.” The FBI director at the time was Comey. The Hill

    Turley continues: 

    If the “interaction” means leaking the information, then McCabe’s statement would seem to directly contradict statements Comey made in a May 2017 congressional hearing. Asked if he had “ever been an anonymous source in news reports about matters relating to the Trump investigation or the Clinton investigation” or whether he had “ever authorized someone else at the FBI to be an anonymous source in news reports about the Trump investigation or the Clinton investigation,” Comey replied “never” and “no.”

    Former FBI Assistant Director Chris Swecker said on Friday that the upcoming OIG report will contain some “pure TNT,” whenever it comes out – which should shed more light on the FBI’s transgressions surrounding the 2016 U.S. election. 

    The timing of McCabe’s statement and Comey’s apparent perjury comes at an inconvenient time for the former FBI director, who’s selling $100 tickets to attend stops on his upcoming book tour to promote: “A Higher Loyalty: Truth, Lies, and Leadership.”

    As Turley notes, “If he gave McCabe the green light for his “interaction,” the title could prove embarrassingly ironic.”

  • India And Pakistan: Inching Toward Their Final War?

    Authored by Mohammed Ayoob via National Interest,

    Both India and Pakistan have between 120 and 140 nuclear warheads, according to estimates provided by the Arms Control Association. However a report produced in 2015 by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Stimson Center asserts that Pakistan may be outpacing India in terms of its nuclear stockpile, and may possess 350 nuclear warheads in the next five to ten years. A 2016 SIPRI report confirmed the assessment that Pakistan has more nuclear warheads than India.

    However, what distinguishes the two neighbors’ nuclear-weapons programs from each other is not so much the pace of production or the size of the stockpiles, but their radically different nuclear doctrines.

    The major difference between the two countries’ nuclear doctrines is that while India has renounced first use of nuclear weapons, Pakistan has refused to do so by reserving its right to use nuclear weapons in the face of India’s conventional superiority.

    So far, uncertainty regarding Pakistan’s nuclear threshold is the principal factor preventing a major conflagration in South Asia. Pakistan’s refusal to disavow first use of nuclear weapons, and its emphasis on amassing tactical nuclear weapons and short-range missiles as a corollary of its nuclear doctrine, can be explained in light of its conventional-force inferiority vis-à-vis India. It is in fact a mirror image of the American nuclear doctrine as applied to central Europe during the Cold War. The United States refused to disavow first use of nuclear weapons, and deployed tactical nuclear weapons in central Europe on a large scale, because of NATO’s presumed inferiority in terms of conventional power vis-à-vis that deployed by the Warsaw Pact.

    But for Pakistan, the uncertainty introduced by its nuclear doctrine has achieved another major objective as well. It has provided Pakistan with the shield behind which terrorist groups armed and trained by Islamabad, such as Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Muhammad, can engage in acts of terror that create mayhem not only in Indian-administered Kashmir but also in other parts of India. The fear of escalating a conflict with Pakistan to the nuclear level has prevented India from retaliating to these provocations with the massive use of its superior conventional force.

    India desisted from retaliating against terrorist bases or Pakistani military installations even when a massive terrorist operation launched from Pakistan targeted India’s financial capital, Mumbai, in November 2008. This attack lasted for more than sixty hours and left at least 174 people dead.

    However, it seems that the logic of this deterrence is fast eroding. Attacks such as the one in Mumbai, and subsequent assaults on Indian military installations in Kashmir and elsewhere, have also provided justification for India’s hard-line Hindu nationalists to heighten anti-Pakistan rhetoric, and putting pressure on the Indian government to intensify its military response. In the past few months, Indian retaliatory attacks have targeted not only terrorist bases but also Pakistani military facilities, causing significant casualties among Pakistani forces.

    The escalation in the last two years in terror attacks, especially by Jaish-e-Muhammad, with the obvious connivance of the Pakistan army, on Indian military targets in Kashmir and surrounding Indian states has made the situation very perilous. In the past several months, terrorist groups operating from Pakistan have undertaken several such major attacks, causing significant loss of life among Indian security forces.

    A major terrorist attack on the Uri camp in Jammu and Kashmir in September 2016, which left seventeen military personnel dead, motivated the Indian government to reassess its strategy for responding to such attacks. On September 29, 2016, India launched its first publicly acknowledged “surgical strike” against terrorist bases in Pakistan. Although there had been speculation that India had conducted such strikes earlier as well, this was the first admission by New Delhi that it was ready to launch major retaliatory attacks against targets in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.

    In the latest incident, in February 2018, Jaish terrorists attacked an Indian military camp in Jammu; five army personnel and four militants were killed. In retaliation, the Indian army destroyed a Pakistani army post with the help of rocket launchers, killing, according to Indian sources, twenty-two Pakistani personnel. This tit-for-tat exchange is reaching dangerous proportions.

    So far, the Pakistani military has downplayed Indian incursions and retaliatory attacks and refused to recognize their seriousness, because it does not want to appear weak in the eyes of the Pakistani public, which is then likely to clamor for revenge. However, the Pakistani military cannot continue to downplay Indian attacks, especially in light of the increasing fatalities. There is the danger that at some point, either by miscalculation or by design, an Indian surgical strike in Pakistani territory will push the Pakistani military—which controls the nuclear weapons—to retaliate in force.

    If a full-scale war erupts, at some point Pakistan, unable to counter superior Indian conventional forces, could resort to battlefield nuclear weapons, as its doctrine proclaims. While India subscribes to a no-first-use doctrine, it has made it abundantly clear that it will massively retaliate against any use of battlefield nuclear weapons by Pakistan without making a distinction between tactical and strategic nuclear weapons. This strategy, as enunciated in a statement issued by the government of India on January 4, 2003, is designed to inflict unacceptable damage on the enemy.

    Former Indian national security advisor Shivshankar Menon elaborated this strategy in his memoirs:

    “India would hardly risk giving Pakistan the chance to carry out a massive nuclear strike after the Indian response to Pakistan using tactical nuclear weapons. In other words, Pakistani tactical nuclear weapon use would effectively free India to undertake a comprehensive first strike against Pakistan.”

    This is a very scary scenario. Pakistan’s overreliance on its nuclear deterrence, especially its refusal to subscribe to the no-first-use doctrine, when combined with its reckless support for terrorist groups attacking Indian military and civilian targets, could unintentionally usher in a nuclear winter – and spell doom not only for South Asia, but for a much wider area surrounding the subcontinent.

  • Trump Asked Saudi King For $4 Billion So US Troops Can Leave Syria

    The Washington Post has revealed that President Trump attempted to extricate US troops from Syria by asking ally Saudi Arabia to foot the bill for postwar reconstruction and “stabilization” projects in the area of northeast Syria currently occupied by US coalition forces, to the tune of $4 billion. The deal would involve US allies like Saudi Arabia moving into a lead position regarding coalition policy in Syria, while hastening a US exit.

    Though the coalition continues to claim that its occupation of Syrian soil is toward anti-terror and humanitarian efforts, including the reestablishment of civilian infrastructure in a region previously controlled by ISIS, America’s top general, CENTCOM chief Gen. Joseph Votel, admitted in congressional testimony this week that the Syrian government along with its Russian and Iranian allies have effectively won the war.

    General Votel’s very frank admissions on Syria stunned hawks like Senator Graham, who were looking for more muscular policy goals. The Washington Post summarized this part of the exchange as follows

    [A]sked on Tuesday in a Congressional hearing if Bashar al-Assad had “won”, Gen. Joseph Votel, head of US Central Command, replied, “I do not think that is too strong of a statement. I think [Russia and Iran] have provided him with the wherewithal to be ascendant at this point.”

    Senator Lindsey Graham asked Votel, “And it is not your mission in Syria to deal with the Iranian-Assad-Russia problem?” Graham asked Votel. “That’s not in your ‘things to do,’ right?”

    The general replied, “That’s correct, senator.”

    Votel declined to say whether he believed the US military should pursue that broader objective. And asked whether it was still policy that Assad must leave power, Votel said: “I don’t know that that’s our particular policy at this particular point. Our focus remains on the defeat of ISIS.”

    However, US policy does remain fundamentally aimed at preventing Assad and his allies from reasserting control over oil and resource rich northeast Syria, and this is where Trump reportedly envisions the Saudis as having a greater role to play, taking the pressure off US forces.

    According to the Washington Post the deal was articulated by Trump directly to Saudi Arabia’s King Salman in a December phone call. The Post reports:

    In a December phone call with Saudi Arabia’s King Salman, President Trump had an idea he thought could hasten a U.S. exit from Syria: Ask the king for $4 billion. By the end of the call, according to U.S. officials, the president believed he had a deal.

    The White House wants money from the kingdom and other nations to help rebuild and stabilize the parts of Syria that the U.S. military and its local allies have liberated from the Islamic State. The postwar goal is to prevent Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his Russian and Iranian partners from claiming the areas, or the Islamic State from regrouping, while U.S. forces finish mopping up the militants.

    But missed (or more likely deliberately ignored) by the Post reporters is the central irony that Saudi Arabia could possibly “stabilize” anything in Syria at all. As the New York Times concluded in a lengthy investigation over the kingdom’s role in fueling the rise of ISIS and directing the broader jihadist insurgency in Syria, the Saudis are “both the arsonists and the firefighters” in Syria and throughout the region.

    Revelation of the $4 billion proposed deal comes as Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman is set to arrive in Washington on Monday for high level talks with US officials, including a Tuesday meeting with President Trump. The Saudi Embassy in Washington refused to comment on the offer, and neither side has yet confirmed or denied that a deal was reached or is in the works.

    Last month the US announced a mere $200 million pledge toward reconstruction efforts in Syria – a paltry sum (considering total rebuilding costs have been widely estimated at $200-350 billion) perhaps intended to highlight the need of other countries to share in the burden. The Washington Post continues:

    For Trump – who has long railed against insufficient burden-sharing by allies under the U.S. security umbrella – getting others to foot the bill for expensive postwar efforts is important. A $4 billion Saudi contribution would go a long way toward U.S. goals in Syria that the Saudis say they share, particularly that of limiting Assad’s power and rolling back Iran’s influence. By comparison, the United States last month announced a $200 million donation to the stabilization effort.

    The more simple translation of Trump’s message to the Saudis seems to be something like this: “Our occupation of Syria is costly. If you don’t want Assad and Iran to regain the whole country, then you’re invited to take over the occupation yourselves.” 

    Judging by Trump’s recent maneuvers with the Saudis and CENTCOM chief Votel’s congressional testimony, it appears we are in for more long, painful mission creep and perpetuation of the illegal occupation of Syria with no end in sight. 

  • And The US Town With The Highest Average Income Is…

    A few days ago, we published a Property Shark analysis of the wealthiest zip codes in America, and found that – to our complete lack of surprise – the wealthiest towns are clustered around the Bay Area and New York City A, attend their own schools, shop at their own stores and live in their own exclusive enclaves of wealth.

    While those data were largely anticipated, that study also showed that midwestern and even some southern areas had seen remarkable gains.

    Greenwich

    The same pattern applies to Property Shark’s latest study, which ascertained the wealthiest zip codes in the country by median income. Contrary to what one might expect, PS found that most of the nation’s 100 most expensive zip codes were on the West Coast, while most of the wealthiest 100 zip codes were on the East Coast.

    The ultimate takeaway from these data are that, as one might expect, being able to afford an expensive home doesn’t necessarily mean a wealthy family will buy one. After all, frugality is inevitably one of the traits that helped them accumulate wealth.

    * * *

    The East Coast Dominates The Light Of High-Earning Zips Codes

    Of the nation’s top 100 earning zip codes, 70 are located on the East Coast…

    Predictably, there are two areas where most zip codes are clustered: The Northeast with 48 zip codes, and the suburbs around Washington DC, with 28 spots in the top 100.

    Going by state, the ranking of the most expensive zip codes for housing was dominated by California, with 77 spots on the list. However, the picture changed drastically when PS looked for the highest-earning zip codes. By that measure, Cali only took 17 spots in the top 100, while New York led with 20 codes. Of those, 8 are located in Manhattan. Most of the others cover well-established communities in Westchester County.

    Maryland and Connecticut trail New York and California, each claiming 10 spots in the ranking. New Jersey and Virginia follow, further strengthening the East’s dominance, thanks to the D.C. suburbs. Washington, DC itself only managed to claim 1 spot in the ranking.

    Unlike the list of priciest zip codes for home prices, the by-income scale is more heterogeneous, with 15 states taking spots on the list. Virginia, Washington DC, Delaware, Illinois, Texas, and Pennsylvania were all absent from the top 100 most expensive zip codes, but they were present in the homeowner income ranking.

    * * *

    Here’s Where Zip Codes With $250k+ Income Stand In Terms Of Home Prices

    The first 11 highest-earning zip codes all feature a yearly median household income of over $250,000. New York leads with 5 of the 11 zip codes that feature top-bracket median incomes, followed by California with 4 zip codes. Of the top 11 zip codes by median income, the highest ranked based on median sale price is 10013 in Manhattan, which took the 2nd spot.

    On the other hand, San Diego’s 92145 did not even make the cut in the 100 priciest zips for housing, although the median income here exceeds $250,000. The median price here clocked in at $1,332,500, not enough to secure it a spot in the top 100. Furthermore, 2 of the 11 zip codes have median sale prices well below $1 million—Chappaqua’s 10514 and Chicago’s 60603. In zip code 60603, the median sale price recorded in 2017 was $495,000 and, with a median gross income of over $250,000, it stands out as the market with the smallest gap between median price and income.

    Check out Property Shark’s interactive map here:

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    PS

     

  • "The Only Full Fridge In Venezuela Is In The Morgue": Tomas Paez

    Authored by Sabrina Martin via PanamPost.com,

    Sociologist Tomas Paez argues that the disastrous socialist public policy of Chavez and Maduro has been the primary factor in the massive exodus from Venezuela.

    “The main cause of Venezuelan emigration is socialism of the 21st century,” said sociologist Tomás Páez, coordinator of the Global Project of the Venezuelan Diaspora; responding to Nicolás Maduro’s comments admitting to a “brain drain” in the country.

    The Venezuelan dictator said on Wednesday, March 14, there existed a massive “brain drain” in Venezuela, and also confessed that the diaspora is seeking to “improve their life abroad.”

    “There are some young people who have left Venezuela with the idea of improving their life abroad. It’s okay, go and come back because they will not find a better country than Venezuela,” said Maduro.

    But Maduro conceals that most migrants are doing so to escape the dictatorship and its disastrous consequences.

    “The Cause of Venezuelan Emigration is Socialism”

    According to studies of the Global Project of the Venezuelan Diaspora, since Hugo Chávez and his successor Maduro came to power, more than three million citizens have decided to leave Venezuela. The main causes, it says, are insecurity, impunity, and of course, the unprecedented economic crisis.

    In an interview, the sociologist Tomás Páez explained the reasons for this massive exodus and explained why “migration is always good.”

    What are the main reasons why Venezuelans have decided to leave their country?

    There are two fundamental reasons that are summarized in the following sentence: the only full refrigerator in Venezuela is in the morgue. This phrase summarizes the two main problems facing Venezuelans: insecurity and economic deterioration.

    This is fueled by the great problem that is the socialist model that was installed in Venezuela and that has destroyed the country.

    When we asked Venezuelans if they were willing to return, the majority answered yes, but not in these conditions.

    The Venezuelans we interviewed responded that in order to return to their country it would be necessary to change the political model and that the country need prioritize the right to property and the most important thing of all: the right to life.

    What do Venezuelans look for when they leave their country?

    Venezuelan migration has more or less repeated the same pattern of all Latin American emigration. The desired destinations offer greater freedom and development: generally those in the north, such as the United States, Canada, and countries of the European Union.

    However, in recent years, due to the economic failure of Venezuela, which has impoverished 87% of the population, it has become impossible to buy plane tickets to those northern countries, so now the migrants decide to go by land and reach countries such as Colombia, Brazil, Ecuador, Peru, Chile, Uruguay, Argentina, Panama and even by sea, to the Caribbean islands.

    I give the example of a university professor who earns between 5 and 7 dollars a month; a university professor in Venezuela would have to work between 15 and 18 years without stopping to buy a plane ticket; that’s why now they emigrate by bus, on foot, or by boat.

    What is the economic profile of Venezuelan migrants?

    From Venezuela, more and more people of lower socioeconomic status are leaving, but, above all, it remains working professionals.

    Most of the Venezuelan society has been impoverished, except those who have done business with the Chavez and Maduro regimes; all others have become impoverished.

    “A university professor in Venezuela would have to work between 15 and 18 years without stopping to buy a plane ticket”

    Impoverished people are leaving, but most of them have studied at the college level, but with their salaries in Venezuela, they can’t even buy a bicycle. The migrants are young entrepreneurs with a high level of academic training.

    There are three million Venezuelans distributed in 90 countries in more than 300 cities in the world today.

    What are the consequences of this massive exodus from Venezuela?

    I must emphasize that for the government there is no diaspora. The regime does not disclose emigration statistics. All the information we obtain, therefore, we do with the help of other countries.

    We go to Venezuelan organizations throughout the world, to researchers from different universities, because currently, the Maduro regime hides the records, so that they can deny what is happening.

    ” Those who have left have been able to develop their skills, learn, and make new contacts”

    In Venezuela, there is no brain drain as the government says. If those people had stayed in the country, they would not have jobs or access to technology or research. There would be no possibility to study.

    Although all socialism generates a diaspora, fortunately, those who have left have been able to develop their skills, learn, and make new contacts,

    What is your impression in relation to the migratory policies followed by countries such as Peru, Colombia, Argentina, etc?

    Every time I can, I thank all these countries for the aid they are giving to Venezuelans. They are nations that have understood the situation and have assumed that migration is always good.

    How do you explain to the world the contention that migration “is always good”, especially at a time when xenophobia is increasing?

    Emigration is not just about people; these people also represent knowledge and investment. The countries that have grown the most economically for decades did so because of the great contribution of migrants. As occurred in Venezuela in the late 70s, or with countries like the United States that are full of migrants.

    “Migration adds value, knowledge, and skill.”

    For example, in Europe rice companies grew by 300% thanks to the arrival of migrants who consumed much of that product. It is a chain; the migrants began to demand rice and then their subsequent sales grew: that impelled the production and the hiring of new workers for cultivating and harvesting rice. Migration adds value, knowledge, and skill.

  • McCabe Gave Interview, Handed Over Trump Memos To Mueller

    Update: Well, just as Comey had a personal “leaker” to deliver his Trump-memos to the NYT, so McCabe had found a quick line of communication to the press involving “confidential” matters surrounding the Mueller probe, and Axios reports, McCabe has met with special counsel Robert Mueller’s team and has turned over memos detailing interactions with President Trump, “according to a source familiar with the exchange.”

    Axios’ source reveals that the memos include corroboration by McCabe of Comey’s account of his own firing by Trump, as well as an account of at least one in-person meeting with Trump, which however considering McCabe was fired for perjury – among other things – may not carry quite as much weight.

    McCabe had previously alluded to the memos in the statement after his firing, in which he said: “My testimony to the House Intelligence Committee revealed that I would corroborate former Director Comey’s accounts of his discussions with the President.”

    * * *

    After former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe was fired by the Justice Department late on Friday night just two days before his retirement, because he lied under oath or as AG Sessions said, McCabe “lacked candor – including under oath – on multiple occasions… all FBI employees know that lacking candor under oath results in dismissal”, McCabe has decided he won’t go down quietly in what he has dubbed the Trump administration’s “war on the FBI.”

    McCabe, who briefly led the agency after Director James Comey was fired, said his dismissal by Attorney General Jeff Sessions on Friday night was the latest attack on his credibility. He has claimed he’s being singled out because of what he witnessed in the aftermath of Comey’s ouster.

    Of course, some – such as ethics officials belonging to the FBI Office of Professional Responsibility – beg to differ: after all it was they who recommended McCabe’s dismissal on Thursday for lying to the Inspector General in the course of a government investigation. As CBS News  justice correspondent Paula Reid noted, McCabe’s termination takes place just days before the highly anticipated release of the Inspector General’s report which is expected to show that he leaked information with the media about the agency’s investigation into the Clinton Foundation, and lied under oath.

    McCabe has pushed back hard, saying his firing is yet another attempt by the administration to undermine Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian meddling in the U.S. election process, and allegations that Mr. Trump’s campaign colluded with those efforts. In a statement, McCabe wrote that he was, “being singled out and treated this way because of the role I played, the actions I took and the events I witnessed in the aftermath of the firing of James Comey.”

    McCabe said in his statement that the inspector general’s report was fast-tracked after he told the House Intelligence Committee he would corroborate Comey’s accounts of conversations he had with the president. Comey has testified that Trump asked if he would end an investigation into former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn.

    McCabe also spoke directly about the ongoing Russia investigation in his statement (full statement below):

    It is part of this administration’s ongoing war on the FBI and the efforts of the special counsel investigation, which continue to this day,” McCabe said. “Their persistence in this campaign only highlights the importance of the special counsel’s work.”

    But what about the report by the “independent and impartial” Inspector General, which remember was launched after Democrats forced the DOJ IG to open an investigation into handling of Clinton email investigation… or in other words, McCabe was fired  because of 1) an IG investigation demanded by Democrats that was  2) directed by an Obama IG appointee resulted in 3) a recommendation from the FBI’s ethics office that McCabe be terminated.

    Well, in a phone interview with CBS News’ senior investigator producer Pat Milton, McCabe said he rejected the findings in the (Inspector General’s) report, calling it “misleading and unfair.” Obviously.

    “I strongly believe this is the latest chapter in a yearlong attack on my credibility and service to the country,” McCabe said. 

    Well that, or simply the facts are finally coming out, and until refuted, they confirm the corruption, party bias and cronyism that many had said is prevalent at the FBI.

    As for the full OIG report due any day now, recall that the former FBI assistant director Chris Swecker said that it will contain “some pure TNT”, so that’s something else to look forward to as the public decides if the yearlong attack on McCabe’s credibility – which started with the WSJ’s October 2016 report that a “Clinton Ally Aided Campaign of FBI Official’s Wife” – is justified.

    McCabe also said that “to have my career end in this way, and to be accused of lacking candor when at worst I was distracted in the midst of chaotic events, is incredibly disappointing and unfair. But it will not erase the important work I was privileged to be a part of, the results of which will in the end be revealed for the country to see.”

    Some, like the president, would disagree.

    * * *

    So what are McCabe’s next steps?

    Well, it appears the former deputy director will not go down without a fight, and as the Daily Beast reports, McCabe has lawyered up, hiring Michael Bromwich of the Bromwich Group, who confirmed to The Daily Beast that he is “representing McCabe for the purposes of the matter that led to his firing.”

    This certainly suggests that McCabe will sue the administration for firing him for political reasons, with some in the press already salivating what discovery will reveal about Sessions, Trump and everyone else in this growing conflict.

    Still, that McCabe is retaining counsel is not surprising. What is, however, and may add a potential twist to this latest battle between Trump and the FBI, is that according to the AP, McCabe kept personal memos regarding Trump that are similar to the notes compiled by dismissed FBI chief James Comey detailing interactions with him, which could become a key part of evidence in special counsel Robert S. Mueller III’s probe.

    The AP notes, that it was not immediately clear whether any of McCabe’s memos have been turned over to special counsel Robert Mueller, whose criminal investigation is examining Trump campaign ties to Russia and possible obstruction of justice, or been requested by Mueller.

    McCabe’s memos include details of interactions with the president, among other topics, according to an AP source “with direct knowledge of the situation who wasn’t authorized to discuss the memos publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity.” As Bloomberg adds, Mueller has shown interest in McCabe’s interactions with the president, though Comey’s conversations might more squarely fit into a possible obstruction of justice case.

    The disclosure came hours after Trump called McCabe’s firing by Attorney General Jeff Sessions as a “a great day for Democracy.”

    * * *

    Below is Andrew McCabe’s full statement (link):

  • Residents Of This State Pay The Highest Taxes In The US

    Last week we reported  that residents of New Jersey were about to enter the 9th circle of financial hell as the state, fast approaching a fiscal, economic and budgetary catastrophe, was preparing to raise taxes on “almost everything.”

    But if New Jerseyans are approaching a tax inferno, residents of Illinois are already there.

    According to a recent analysis by WalletHub, Illinoisans pay $8,300 per home in various state and local taxes, more than any other state in the nation. In the annual ranking of taxpayer burden by state, WalletHub found that Illinois households give up just under 15% of their annual earnings to pay state and local taxes, over 1 percent more than residents of the second highest taxed state, Connecticut with 13.85%. Of course, they also pay federal taxes on top of that.

    Source: WalletHub

     

    Putting these numbers in context, Illinois residents – apart from being the most highly taxed in all the US – pay three times more in state and local taxes than residents of the lowest taxed state, Alaska, and about 40% more than the US average of 10.8%.

    While residents of Illinois are no strangers to financial hell – this is the second consecutive year that Illinois was  ranked top in the nation in weight of local tax burden – it hardly makes it any more palatable that they keep getting screwed by their financially incompetent leaders.

    Worse, the state’s financial doldrums come after another $5 billion income and corporate tax hike in 2017.

    Meanwhile, wages in the Prairie State refuse to rise: according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, wage growth in Illinois in Q3 2017 was only 0.6. As Illinois News has suggested, one potential explanation for this is that many Illinoisans have simply stopped working. A February report by Moody‘s said Illinois is at a 40-year low for workforce participation.

    Alternatively, it may also be the result – or cause – of the Illinois population exodus. Recall that In 2017, Illinois not only lost 125,000 residents in aggregate, or 1 every 4.3 minutes, resulting in the biggest net population outflow that year of all US states…

    … it also dropped to 6th most populous state in the US behind Pennsylvania according to Illinois Policy.

    Finally, while we will have more information and a broader breakdown of state and local income taxation across the US tomorrow, it is worth noting that – perhaps ironically – red states impose materially lower taxes than blue states.

  • Brennan, Holder, Comey Rage After McCabe Fired; Veiled Threats And Temper Tantrums Fly

    Following the 11th hour firing of former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe on the recommendation of the DOJ’s Inspector General, Michael Horowitz, and the Office of Professional Responsibility (OPR), for lying under oath and leaking to the press, former Obama administration officials have thrown a temper tantrum.

    Recall Sen. Schumer (D-NY) warning Trump that the intelligence community has “six ways from Sunday” to get revenge…

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    Well, consider the hornet’s nest kicked: 

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    For starters, Obama’s ex-CIA director John Brennan broke out the thesaurus and lashed out at President Trump. “You may scapegoat Andy McCabe,” Brennan wrote “but you will not destroy America…America will triumph over you.” 

    As an aside, Brennan – who insisted on being sworn in under Obama on an original draft of the constitution – without the Bill of Rights and all those inconvenient amendments – notably spied on members of Congress, endorsed torture, and ran Obama’s covert drone war. Maybe he became so cutthroat while learning Arabic and Middle Eastern studies in Cairo?

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    Next – Obama’s Attorney General Eric Holder – who challenged Republicans to a “knife fight” last Wednesday, lashed out over the “cruel” timing and caving to an “increasingly erratic President.”

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    Of note – Holder appointed Robin Ahston to head up the Office of Professional Responsibility in 2010, saying she would “lead the office with the highest standards of professionalism, integrity and dedication.”  It was her recommendation that McCabe be fired for violations we won’t know the full extent of until IG Michael Horowitz releases his report.

    Earlier we reported on former FBI Director James Comey’s tweet after McCabe’s firing, warning cryptically that Americans will” soon” be able to “judge for themselves who is honorable and who is not.” 

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    Soon indeed James…

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    Throwing shells from the peanut gallery

    Various other Trump-haters also gnashed their teeth; issuing threats and making little comments: 

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    And yet, not everyone is so bitter…

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  • This Is What The CIA's Venture Capital Fund Is Investing In Now

    Submitted by Nicholas Colas of DataTrek Research

    Today we highlight the most interesting investment firm on Earth: In-Q-Tel, the US Central Intelligence Agency’s venture capital arm. The “Q” in the name is an homage to James Bond’s quartermaster. The rest of the story is even cooler than that, and what they own is a useful signpost for the direction of many disruptive technologies.

    The US Central Intelligence Agency runs a venture capital fund called In-Q-Tel, based in Arlington, Virginia. A few quick facts, courtesy of LinkedIn and the company’s website:

    • IQT has 186 active employees, with operations in the Bay Area as well as DC.
    • Its mission is “To identify and partner with startup companies developing innovative technologies that protect and preserve our nation’s security.”
    • The current CEO and President is Chris Darby, an Intel Corp alum. The lead partner is Steve Bowsher, who is based in San Francisco and has the usual Harvard/Stanford educational credentials common in the VC community.

    Why you should care: IQT knows how to pick winners and isn’t afraid to go it alone.

    • It was, for example, the only outside firm that would invest in Palantir’s first round. That company, founded by Peter Thiel, uses advanced software and big data analysis to solve cyber espionage and other 21st century problems. The rest of the VC community passed, with some outright telling Thiel the idea would never work.
    • IQT plunked in $2 million back in 2004 and got Palantir the connections to work with the US government on several serious cyber security problems. Which they solved.
    • Fast forward to now, and Palantir’s value may be as high as $20 billion and there is talk of an IPO. Even if IQT’s original $2 million investment only gave them 1% of the company, they have a 100-bagger on this trade.

    So what is IQT invested in now? The juiciest ideas are secret, but here are some of the public ones:

    • SnapDNA. Portable chip-based DNA analysis. Identify anyone on Earth in real time by their genetic fingerprint.
    • Magnet Forensics. Digital forensic analysis of evidence from computers, phones and tablets to fight crime and guard national security.
    • Sonitus Technologies. In-mouth microphones and speakers to allow for secure and high fidelity communication in any environment.
    • And one notable prior investment: Keyhole, a satellite imagery company. Sold to Google in 2005, where it became Google Earth.

    You can see more (including video of the in-mouth mike) here, and IQT’s website is here: https://www.iqt.org.

    Separately, a list of unpublicized In-Q-Tel portfolio companies is shown below, courtesy of The Intercept.

    Bottom line: this is one of those companies to add to your “Smart money” list. When you see them make an investment, understand they have a real edge.

    And on a final note, Israel’s Mossad is following in IQT’s footsteps with a VC firm named Libertad Ventures. Their initial focus will be on robotics, energy, encryption, web intelligence, and natural language processing. They do not, however, intend to take equity. Or call out what they own.

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