Today’s News 27th January 2018

  • Eminem Accuses Trump Of "Brainwashing" Fans, Says "F**king Turd Would Be Better President"

    Authored by Luke Morgan Britton via NME.com,

    Rapper says he doesn’t mind losing half his fanbase to Trump

     

    Eminem has hit out again at Donald Trump, arguing that both Hillary Clinton and “a fucking turd” would have made for a better President than the current US leader.

    The Detroit rapper has been vocal in his criticism of Trump in recent months, saying that Trump doesn’t care about America and that he has “brainwashed” his supporters.

    Now, speaking to Billboard, Eminem has claimed that he foresaw Trump’s election win.

    “Watching the TV in fucking disbelief. I was in my basement, on the phone back and forth with friends like, ‘He’s going to fucking win’,” he said.

    I called it just from the rallies he was having when he first started running. Because just watching the impact he has, they were fanatics. There is something to be said about the person who really felt like he might do something for them – and he just fucking duped everybody.”

    “I know that Hillary [Clinton] had her flaws, but you know what? Anything would have been better [than Trump]. A fucking turd would have been better as a president.”

    Last October, Eminem slammed Trump in a freestyle performed at the BET Hip-Hop Awards, drawing a “line in the sand” between him and Trump, telling his fans to pick a side.

    He later expressed his surprise at Trump failing to respond to the freestyle.

    “I felt that everybody who was with him at that point doesn’t like my music anyway,” Eminem said. “I get the comparison with the non-political-correctness, but other than that, we’re polar opposites. He made these people feel like he was really going to do something for them.”

    It’s just so fucking disgusting how divisive his language is, the rhetoric, the Charlottesville shit, just watching it going, ‘I can’t believe he’s saying this.’ When he was talking about John McCain, I thought he was done. You’re fucking with military veterans, you’re talking about a military war hero who was captured and tortured. It just didn’t matter. It doesn’t matter. And that’s some scary shit to me.”

    “I knew [the BET freestyle] would get a reaction, obviously; that’s what I rap to do,” Eminem added. “But where I was coming from in that cypher was a genuine place in my heart. I [hesitate] to say [I have] hatred in my heart for him, but it’s serious contempt. I do not like the guy.”

    At the end of the day, if I did lose half my fan base, then so be it, because I feel like I stood up for what was right and I’m on the right side of this. I don’t see how somebody could be middle class, busting their ass every single day, paycheck to paycheck, who thinks that that fucking billionaire is gonna help you.”

    Eminem recently hit back at critics who say that he’s “lost it”.

    In his ‘Chloraseptic’ remix, Eminem rapped: “Not as raw as I was / ‘Walk on Water’ sucked? / Bitch, suck my dick.”

    He continued:

    “Y’all saw the tracklist and had a fit / Before you heard it / So you formed your verdict While you sat with your arms crossed / Did your little reaction videos and talked over songs / Nah dog, y’all saying I lost it / Your fucking marbles are gone.”

    So that should clear a few things up.

  • Feds Charge Democrat Florida Mayor With Money Laundering, Taking Bribes From "Bunch Of Russians"

    The Mayor of Hallandale Beach, Florida surrendered to authorities on Thursday on third-degree felony charges of money laundering, official misconduct and exceeding limits on campaign contributions. Mayor Joy Cooper (D) is also charged with soliciting contributions in City Hall – a misdemeanor. Each felony carries a maximum five year prison sentence.


    Hallandale Beach, FL Mayor Joy Cooper

    According to prosecutors, the FBI began investigating Cooper in May, 2012 – posing as wealthy real estate developers from California seeking political favors from Cooper in exchange for a Hallandale Beach project. The undercover agents hired disbarred Hollywood attorney Alan Koslow to represent them, who funneled $5,000 in campaign contributions to Cooper in the form of “checks from a bunch of Russian names,” according to court documents. Koslow did not initially know that the men were with the FBI, nor that he was also a target in their investigation.


    Alan Koslow

    At the time, Alan Koslow was unaware that he was interacting with undercover Federal Bureau of Investigation agents,” wrote investigators. Koslow, 63, would eventually wear a wire as part of the sting, as the FBI recorded audio or video of every meeting, according to court records. 

    Koslow represented himself to agents as an effective lobbyist who “had the vote of the mayor,” records show. During a July 10, 2012 meeting between Cooper, the undercover FBI agents and Koslow at City Hall, Cooper was recorded making assurances that she and two other commissioners were a “team of three” who could push the real estate project through, according to the arrest affidavit. 

    “Alan Koslow showed Mayor Cooper a number representing a proposed contribution and asked her if it was a good number. She replied ‘No. Add a zero.” Koslow confirmed ‘Three zeros, is that fine?’ and Mayor Cooper replied ‘Yes,’” according to the arrest affidavit. Later that month, Koslow assured Cooper she would receive a $10,000 bribe in the form of two $5,000 contributions – before and after the August, 2012 primary. 

    In an August, 2012 meeting, Koslow and the undercover agents went to Cooper’s home, after which they drove to the former Hollywood attorney’s house and gave him a Dunkin’ Donuts bag containing $8,000 in cash. Koslow told the agents he would have two Russian organizations write checks for them, according to investigators. 

    During a recorded meeting at the Flashback Diner on Aug. 20, 2012, one of the undercover agents told Cooper that “the pledged payment to her, via her campaign, would be in the form of checks from a ‘bunch of Russian names,’” according to court documents.

    In September, Koslow told one of the agents he had personally handed 20 checks to Cooper at a Hallandale Beach Chamber of Commerce fashion show, court records say. The checks, totaling $5,000, were broken down into smaller amounts that appeared to come from people with Russian last names, according to the documents. Cooper said “that’s fantastic” when she got the checks, according to what Koslow told the undercover agents.

    Cooper’s campaign reported nine contributions from eight teachers and a retired person in the amount of $500 each, matching names on a list of donors Koslow had given the so-called developers, the affidavit said.

    -Sun-Sentinel

    Between September 2013 and May 2016, four different undercover FBI agents met with Koslow at least 75 times, however their discussions remain secret due to ongoing investigations in other matters. The FBI’s had their final piece of major evidence after Koslow gave a sworn statement to investigators in November 2017, in which he admitted to the entire affair. 

    Cooper’s attorney responded, knocking the FBI for using Koslow: 

    “We look forward to our day in court and the mayor’s vindication,” said Cooper’s attorney, Larry Davis. “We’re extremely disappointed that the Broward County State Attorney’s Office is relying upon Alan Koslow, a disgraced and disbarred convicted felon, as the centerpiece of its case of alleged campaign finance violations.”

    Koslow, 63, was considered one of the most effective and best-known attorneys and lobbyists in the state, specializing in representing developers and the gaming industry. He pleaded guilty in August 2016 to helping people prosecutors said he thought were “quasi-mafia” criminals hide the source of $220,000 linked to illegal gambling and drug dealing. –sun-sentinal.com

    Cooper apparently began unraveling late last year – with her political rivals sending a letter to Gov. Scott asking him to remove her from office, after she allegedly showed up to a commission meeting and appeared to be under the influence of some type of “behavior-altering substance,” according to the letter. 

    Cooper defended herself, saying she was severely dehydrated after contracting diarrhea during a trip to Mexico. Cooper was also accused of spying on her political rivals, after Vice Mayor Keith London and others say she planted a GPS tracker in their cars. Cooper suggested the rivals had planted the trackers as a political stunt.

    And so, once again, America is graced with tales of mystery, malfeasance, and incompetence by elected officials in Broward County, Florida. 

  • Economic Collapse And Dollar Hegemony – How Did This Start?

    Authored by Federico Pieraccini via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    In the previous article I explained why bitcoin should be considered a reaction to US dollar hegemony and how other nations and central banks are facing the crisis of the dollar brought on by de-dollarization. In this article I will go into how we came to this point and what mechanisms helped to bring about a debt-based society. In the third and last article we will examine the nature of the future geopolitical and geo-financial transition as well as the signals we need look out for in the immediate future.

    From Gold to Paper

    To understand what is happening today we must look back to simpler times, back when people bartered with each other. The utility and availability of commodities determined their value. Gold in particular represented a finite good that was difficult to find and was useful in various fields. For this reason gold has always been considered the highest example of a valuable good, together with diamonds, platinum, silver and other elements that are difficult to find but have a common or daily use. For example, the importance of utility transformed uranium, an otherwise worthless element, into a valuable commodity following the discovery of atomic energy. Returning to gold, one can understand how in the era of barter, gold was the reference element with which to price the value of everything. Little by little, gold was joined by silver and then bronze in simplifying the exchange of goods and increasing convenience of use.

    Gold had its own intrinsic value and was valid in every empire around the world; the same with silver and bronze. Gold had become not only a means of exchange and a measure of value but also a reservoir of value to be bequeathed to heirs. Above all it was a means of payment. When silver coins began to become scarce, payment with currency printed on leather was introduced. However, they were often refused due to lacking the basic principles that gave gold, silver and bronze their measure and reservoir of value. The skin of this currency could wear out, and though it was a means of payment, it was not as solid and trustworthy as precious metals.

    The real revolution began in the 1700s when the French central bank began to take gold bars from its citizens in exchange for pieces of paper with the corresponding value written on it. This change would have enormous repercussions on the world economy over the next 300 years.

    The most important aspect of this change was psychological, whereby the ordinary person is willing to deliver his physical gold to the French bank in exchange for a piece of paper indicating the amount of gold owned. There are two fundamental reasons that have led to this choice, both relating to human nature: the simplicity of use, and trust in the system. The French state, through its central bank, withdrew from the public gold, silver and bronze and exchanged it for physical paper currency without any intrinsic value. But the paper currency offered a high degree of portability and ease of use, aiding in its use as a means of payment and exchange of goods. Capitalism was thereby born and the transfer of wealth complete. The world was transitioning from a real economy based on intrinsic value, such as with that represented by gold, silver and bronze, to a fictitious one anchored to pieces of paper.

    World Reserve Currency

    The British Empire, and then the American one, have thrived enormously on this arrangement, thanks to the accumulation of gold in their central banks. The Bank of England had accumulated huge reserves of gold, and so was able to issue massive amounts of pounds, building up the concept of a world monetary reserve. The pound had slowly replaced the French currency as the main medium of exchange around the world, leaving Britain in a privileged position as a result of London’s central role in the global economy. Throughout history, the rise of major empires has coincided with their currency being the global reserve currency. Up until the British Empire, currency had always been a mix of valuable currencies and substitute currencies. But with sterling, gold was completely replaced with the pound, giving Britain and its colonies a disproportionate power to manipulate the global economy. To make the system sustainable, the obligation was to print currency only in relation to the quantity of gold actually owned. Each pound issued corresponded with a gold fee that was only borrowed from the British central bank. Each currency holder, first in France and now in England, could theoretically have asked for his gold back instead of sterling or French florins. This arrangement relied on the trust placed in central banks and the state, liberating the average citizen from having to transport and protect the precious coins.

     

    At the end of the Second World War the United States emerged as the biggest winner in the West and Washington soon replaced London as the premier global power, with the dollar taking the place of the pound as a global reserve currency. The real negative change came when Nixon decided in 1971 to drop the dollar from the corresponding gold value that had been established at the Bretton Woods Agreement. The Fed was no longer required to have the gold price printed on its paper money. The 1973 oil crisis further fixed the value of the dollar as a result of this oil shock, bringing Saudi Arabia and the OPEC countries to sign a secret agreement with Washington. This agreement provided that in exchange for Washington’s political and military protection, the OPEC countries would be required to sell oil only in dollars. The petrodollar was thus born, being a replacement for the gold-linked standard that existed prior to Nixon.

    Over the space of a few years, the world economy experienced a dramatic and catastrophic shift. American military and economic power had prevailed, and the FED was free to print endless amounts of dollars without worrying about its sustainability or credibility, relying on war, the media and consumerism to prop up the facade. The world began to send consumer goods to the United States in exchange for waste paper with no relationship to gold. The scam of the century was now complete. It is a farce that relies on the collusion between banks, federal agencies, rating agencies and governments to create the illusion that US government bonds are the safest asset in the world, even more so than gold itself, which began to slowly disappear from the radar as a store of intrinsic value.

    Fast forward to the end of the 1980s and the situation began to worsen with the transition to a digital reality regulated by Wall Street and financial speculation. Central banks could create money simply by transferring money to banks digitally.

    This phenomenon brought about an enormous divergence between real assets and the value of currencies. Many countries lacking a certain level of international credibility could see inflation rise in a matter of hours as a result of strong financial speculation, devaluing the value of their currency with disastrous consequences for the real economy.

    Twenty years later, the crack revealed by Lehman Brothers suddenly amplified all the existing problems. The risk was that citizens would lose trust in the dollar or the euro, undermining the understanding that had existed since the 1700s, where citizens would exchange gold for paper safe in the knowledge that the integrity of this process was guaranteed by the central bank of their country. Rather than heal the financial system, the solution devised sought to increase the power of the banks and financial institutions, and to above all flood the market with money to save the banks that were too big to fail. The ordinary taxpayers all of a sudden found themselves saddled with an $800 billion debt with a simple mouse click, the Fed working through the night to create money from nothing in order to increase the liquidity of banks.

    Thanks to a continuous stream of mainstream-media propaganda, the average citizen was little concerned by these actions and the global economy avoided going downhill. The central banks found themselves in an unprecedented situation, forcing them to admit that the only way to save the economy was to create more money out of thin air. Such an absurd situation has led Deutsche Bank in 2018 to accumulate such toxic financial instruments as derivatives worth approximately $46 trillion, twice the American economy. This is degenerating into meaningless madness, as we will see in the next and final article of the series.

    In the next and last article of the series I will explain how cryptocurrency could save the whole financial system in the event of a new crisis and why this means the end of the unipolar moment for the USA.

  • These Cities Have The Most Jobs In America's Fastest Growing Industries

    At 4.1%, the US unemployment rate is at its lowest level in two decades. Still, as underemployment and stagnant wages erode consumers’ buying power, an employee’s ability to score a well-paying job today depends in part on their willingness to relocate.

    To help those on the job market find the cities best for them, Adobo analyzed the data and create easy-to-read guides to the career opportunities available in each of the country’s top 50 metro areas.

    Unsurprisingly, the field seeing the the fastest growth between 2012 and 2015 is computer and mathematical occupations, which have grown by more than 20% over the past four years. In a relatively distant second place, community and social service occupations have grown by 15.3%, followed more closely by business and financial operations occupations (13.4%) and construction and extraction occupations (13.2%). The fifth fastest-growing field involves health care practitioner and technical occupations, which grew 12.3%.

    First, Adobo breaks down how many jobs per 1,000 jobs exist in each category in each of the top 50 metros…

     

    Adobo

    Our nation’s capital tops the list for business and financial operations, with a solid 98.9 jobs in the field per every 1,000 – the highest density of any occupation in any of the top 25 MSAs. Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO (79.5) and San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA (78.5) also posted solid numbers.

    For the fastest-growing occupation – computers and math – Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV, offers the highest job density, with nearly 73 out of every 1,000 jobs being in the field. Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA – recently named the country’s second-best tech city – has 67 job in the field per 1,000. Somewhat surprisingly, Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA, scored the lowest of the top 25 MSAs, with only 11 jobs in tech for every 1,000 jobs in the area.

    Tech-heavy jobs include everything from software and web developers, support specialists, systems analysts, network administrators, and programmers, to statisticians, mathematicians, and computer research scientists. They’ve been growing at an unsurpassed rate since 2012, at an average of 4.8% a year – which would be higher if not for a stumble between 2014 and 2015, when the sector’s employment grew only 1.5%. The year before, employment grew an incredible 8.1%.

    Unsurprisingly, San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara CA – the metro area that includes the San Francisco Bay area – leads with tech jobs, blowing nearly every other city out of the water.

    TWO

    * * *

    Social workers, counselors, religious workers, probation officers, therapists, and community health workers comprise this universally important job category, which means that these workers aren’t concentrated in metros. Since these jobs are everywhere, many areas are on par with the national average, leading to lower overall location quotients.

    In terms of jobs per 1,000 for the top 25 metro areas, Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD, topped the list. But now that we’re looking at location quotient for the the top 50 metro areas, the Philadelphia area drops to #3, with about 1.4 times more jobs than the national average.

    Instead, Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT, rises to the top, with 23.3 jobs in the field per every 1,000 and a location quotient of 1.6. Providence-Warwick, RI-MA, comes in second place with about 1.5 times more jobs than the national average concentration. Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH, and Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, NY, both have a location quotient of 1.3.

    Three

    * * *

    Much like community and social service workers, business and financial operations – a group that includes accountants, real estate assessors, auditors, financial analysts, human resource specialists, claims adjusters, loan officers, logisticians, training and development specialists, event planners and similar employees – are scattered around the country, meaning the location quotients are fairly low.

    As we mentioned earlier, our nation’s capital has nearly double the national average concentration of business and financial jobs, with a 1.9 location quotient. Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, CA; Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO; and San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA, all have location quotients around 1.5.

    Four

    * * *

    When it comes to construction and extraction jobs, this broad category largely includes jobs that are necessary everywhere, such as electricians, floor installers, insulation workers, carpenters, roofers, masonry workers, painters, maintenance workers, and solar photovoltaic installers. As the name implies, this category also includes workers who deal with mining and oil and gas extraction, such as continuous mining machine operators, earth drillers, and derrick operators.

    The preponderance of oil and gas extraction that puts Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land in first with 60.1, TX; New Orleans-Metairie, LA and Oklahoma City, OK are second and third, respectively.

     

    Six

    * * *

    Health care jobs, such as physicians, surgeons, lab technicians, dentists, physical therapists, and support technologists, must necessarily exist everywhere, which drives down location quotients. Still, some cities rise to the top. And they’re probably not the cities you’d expect…

     

    Six

    Fortunately, for four out of the five fastest growing job categories, chances are, job-seekers won’t necessarily need to relocate in order to find opportunities in their field, but they might want to in order to chase the perfect position or pursue growth. The coasts are especially ripe with opportunity, but even Midwestern and inland areas, like Minneapolis and Austin, offer ample opportunity in these popular careers…

     

     

  • "This Does Not Represent The Views Of the University…"

    Authored by Professor Max Forte via Zero Anthropology,

    I know that I am not the first person to ask this, but when did universities start having “views”? When some professors indulge their rights to free speech or put academic freedom into practice, they can sometimes express views that some members of the public find controversial, distasteful, or reprehensible. In such cases, one frequently reads their university administrations publishing memos to the effect that, “Professor X’s views on Subject Y do not represent the views of the university”.

    What does that mean? Has “the university” studied the subject to the same degree as the professor, thus allowing it to conclude its views are the correct ones? Was the professor supposed to be instructed on the correct views to represent, since the job of professor apparently means not having an independent mind? Does it mean that Professor X does not represent the views of all professors and students at the university? How could anyone ever assume that one professor spoke for all others? Does it instead mean that the professor does not represent the views of those in the administration? The support staff? If so, who cares? And where exactly did the university administration publish its “party line”?

    When I was twice hired for tenure-track positions, the one thing I recall no Dean ever telling me was: “Here is a list of the views of the university. Only if you uphold these views can you consider working here. Should you ever express any differing views, you may be subjected to disciplinary action”. Nonetheless, the attitude of some university administrations in North America is that they have a right to publicly castigate faculty for not toeing the line. It is as if “the university” has been reduced to working as a mere cell of a ruling political party.

    One could ask similar questions as above, only in reverse. What entitles administrators to speak for the university as a whole? How do they know that Professor X’s statements really do not reflect the views of the university? Did they ever consult faculty and students? Where is all the survey data that reveal the views of faculty on any subject? How is “the university” defined? Is it just the board of governors? Whose views does the university represent? Since I work in a public university – Canada only has public universities, with maybe one or two little exceptions – can we then assume that the “views of the university” neatly align with the broad majority of the public that we presumably are meant to serve? Is it the job of professors to simply reflect the views of others? Since when did it fall to professors to “represent” their universities – and will they get paid extra for doing PR work?

    Three transformations have happened more or less simultaneously, and relatively recently, which may explain these bizarre communiqués from university administrators. One has to do with the politicization of university directorates, especially as even public universities have turned to support from private donors, most of whom have big axes to grind. Private donors are keen to buy support, and silence. Few are the donors who give generously just because they are thrilled by learning – that would be too countercultural in the North American context in which we lionize our meat packers and vilify intellectuals. From this first point, where private donors act as lobbyists for special interests, almost all else follows. To assure donors that universities are being run in a “smart” fashion, administrators have multiplied administrative positions and stacked them with persons from the private sector, who draft “strategic plans” and design what are essentially corporate business models.

    In other words, politicization stems from privatization and corporatization – this is the neoliberal transformation of the public university. To be clear, this transformation has its origins neither in university administrations nor the private sector, both of which lack the political power and authority necessary to effect such a transformation. Instead, governments are the ones that actively took the decision to cut back on funding for public universities, which is their responsibility, even as taxation levels either remained the same or continued to rise. They chose to redirect public funding away from universities, just as they did with education as a whole, as well as healthcare, social welfare, and so on. Governments pressed universities to raise funds from private sources, just as they pressed them to expand their governance by including more individuals from the private sector.

    The second change has to do with universities seeking to raise their public profile, to gain visibility, and advance in the rankings through enhanced public recognition. To gain recognition, university websites have shed their traditional dull and dour functionality, and have become replicas of CNN. Even the university shields have been tossed, in favor of some terrible, and terribly expensive, brand logos produced by private consultants and graphic designers. Universities now also have “media relations” units, with expert staff that spend their days in Twitter and Facebook, and writing up newsy articles about what select faculty members and students are achieving (more on the political functions of “media relations” units, below). These same media units then do the rounds of the departments, advising faculty on how best to interact with journalists.

    To the laughter of everyone in my Department, one team showed us a video that advised us to dumb down our research so that “even your grandmother could understand it”. I still have no idea why they focused on grandmothers, not grandfathers, and why they assume that all grandmothers are ignorant rubes – perhaps theirs are? In addition, the media units encourage us to list ourselves as experts, for any journalists perusing the university website, by listing the presumably edgy and sexy topics we have mastered with our unrivalled expertise. Not enough, they then invite professors to do professional photo shoots in which they pose playfully for the camera, with a single short sentence in huge print next to them which somehow encapsulates their decades of research: “Do humans really like food?”

    The third major change has to do with how university administrations understand academic freedom, and separately, freedom of speech. One might say they understand these concepts very poorly, or not at all, but I think that misses the above points. The desire by administrators to chill speech, to counter the embarrassingly contrary statements made by publicly outspoken professors, has to do with assuaging private donors as the public university is realigned with the political interests of the so-called top 1%. The immense irony of this is that it is university administrations themselves that actively pushed faculty into the public limelight in the first place, under the strategic rubrics of “knowledge mobilization” and “community outreach”. My university has posted banners around campus that urge us to “mix it up,” “get your hands dirty,” and “embrace the city, embrace the world” – vapid commercialist fluff.

    Even Hollywood took notice. 

    Bleak Ben Stiller bleakly walked past some of these same bleak posters in his recent bleak film, “Brad’s Status,” which apparently was partly shot on the campus of Concordia University (not that the university is listed in the credits of the film – in fact, the movie credits claim the film was shot either in Hawaii or Boston, Montreal itself is not even mentioned

    Vapid commercialist fluff posted around campus: “Teach For Tomorrow” -“Double Our Research” – “Mix It Up” – “Get Your Hands Dirty”

     


    Source: screenshot from the movie, Brad’s Status, via Zero Anthropology 

    Having urged us to “get out there,” university administrators then later express regret when they feel compelled to counter a given professor’s statements with press releases affirming that “this does not represent the views of the university”. This is an “own goal” on the part of university administrators. They have worked assiduously to make the university into a media organization, to turn professors into celebrity advocacy-journalists, and to make the institution responsive to market audiences to such an extent that the autonomy of the university becomes untenable.

    Firings of tenured professors by university administrations, over a difference of opinion, are still relatively rare in Canada, when compared with the US or the UK. In fact, it is not an easy option: tenured professors have not only the protection of their tenure, but of their union, and a legally binding contract negotiated with the union on behalf of faculty which ensures academic freedom and due process. Faculty unions in turn belong to a national umbrella organization, CAUT, which boasts a multi-million dollar academic freedom fund and gets actively involved in supporting faculty. Canadian universities are also deeply fearful of lawsuits which could easily demolish their already frail budgets, most of which are running deficits already. Poor financial management and the backlash of legal damage often results in the top administrators being toppled.

    Rather than go the messy route which, heaven forbid, could also give rise to “bad press”—good lord, not “bad press,” that’s the other court which administrations fear – administrators have had to develop quieter, more insidious and subtle forms of suppression. The way to send “the right message” to the outside world, to properly convey the unspoken “views of the university,” is to publicly promote and praise certain select professors, the ones whose views and whose work best align with those of private individual and corporate donors, or with the ruling party, or the military. To take a recent example: as Donald Trump neared electoral victory, articles were published on the university website, in its magazine and elsewhere, that featured the expert analysis of select faculty – strangely enough, all of whom were clearly pro-Hillary Clinton, anti-Trump, a number of them American expatriates, and who evinced a certain Liberal Party affinity. Unlike in a real university, there was no debate among this small cluster of people bewailing the dawn of the “post-truth” world.

    The paradox is that neoliberal university administrators have adopted a policy of containment, at the same time as they seek to publicly advertise themselves. Not wanting “the wrong views” to get notice, they engage in restricting speech by selecting that speech which suits their purposes. Speech is thus not just restricted, it is regulated, by promoting only those persons whose views are safe and deemed worthy of recognition. Speech is thus effectively restricted to those academics that the administrators judge to be “qualified” to speak, thereby limiting not only what is said, but who can say it. Media relations departments have the primary responsibility of inventing online rituals around speech, practicing containment through promotion. In some cases such departments actively tutor budding young “public intellectuals” through seminars and by shadowing them online, always ready for the opportune time for that strategic “retweet”. As weak, vain, and ineffective as these policies are, they serve as a useful reminder of how liberal authoritarianism works. In this case, liberal authoritarianism produces fictional representations of “the views of the university,” by thinning out the work actually done by faculty, spreading out the words of a few to represent the words of all.

    Another method of indirect silencing is for the university to “celebrate” the media “accomplishments” of select faculty only, by listing stories of faculty who have appeared in the media…only in select media, depending on the “prestige” of the outlet. This is a way to ensure that professors whose views are worthy of being courted by the corporate, neoliberal imperialist media are the only ones featured. In other words, a professor mentioned in a story on CNN is deemed to be worthy of note; a professor who appears on RT, is ignored, as if the event never happened. Selective pride is a way of signaling selective shame. It has the effect of rendering silent the actual media accomplishments of faculty, in order to produce a false picture of where faculty stand, thus assuring the egos of financial donors and politicians. The policy is implemented with the naïve hope that misaligned professors will quietly yearn for that elusive little place on the university website, a place that amounts to nothing more than a few ephemeral pixels seen by few and forgotten by all.

    On a range of other issues, near and dear to regime changers, liberal imperialists, and the pro-Israel lobby, one sees the pattern being reproduced, as I can affirm after close scrutiny that has endured for over a decade. If the topics are Iran, Libya, Syria, refugees, wars, nationalism, and so on, one sees the selectivity being actively enforced, even if it means publishing, praising and promoting the same two or three professors time after time. Rather than a university of hundreds of professors, added to tens of thousands students, we become a university of three individuals. Rarely, probably never, do we see university articles dealing with the working class, with poverty and inequality, critical of neoliberalism, globalization and imperialism. Thus the university presents its “views,” of such a one-sided nature and so bereft of any healthy dissent and disagreement as one would find on no university campus that ever took itself seriously.

    Viewed from afar, there might even be something comical about a university administration busying itself with inventing a secret university, one that covertly lurks beneath the chosen public representation of the university. That is the point of creating “signature areas” that determine “strategic hiring”: lifting hiring decisions from the hands of Departments, now it is university executives who impose the parameters on what constitutes a desirable candidate, and decide which areas need to be filled. Slowly they thus invent for themselves the university they desire, as opposed to the real one that actually exists. Finally, they will have something they can sell with confidence. One has to almost feel sympathy for the administrators, who feel the keen pressure of public politics and special interest lobbies, into whose arms they have been driven by governments that renege on their obligation to support public universities.

    The “views” of the university are a mercantile fiction, a falsehood designed to mislead the public and to caress donors and politicians, the kinds of individuals who are apparently empty and infantile enough to believe that the winning arguments are those that are advanced in the absence of criticism. What if we taught our students that the best way to learn is to ignore whatever they do not like to hear? That is indeed what is being pushed, ironically under the signs of “tolerance” and “inclusion,” the usual neoliberal claptrap.  Thus we witness the university turned into a mere echo chamber for the comfortable, a safe space for moneyed elites to flatter themselves, creating a virtual world of unrivalled ideological purity, contrived harmony, and eternal hegemony.

    Finally, messages from university administrators along the lines of “this does not represent the views of the university,” might serve an additional function, but I am just speculating. This might be a polite way of telling rabid members of the public to lay off. We heard you, yes it’s all quite disconcerting, and here is our little statement, now move along. Had universities with their bloated administrations and overt political leanings not wished to enhance their public profiles and represent themselves as quasi-media outlets, they would spare themselves such unnecessary exercises. In the end, pronouncements about “the views of the university” end up multiplying the damage to the university, both as a self-inflicted wounds within the university, and as a sign of intellectual cowardice in the face of bullies. A university administration that engages in such conduct has failed its first and most basic function: to administer university resources in order to facilitate teaching and learning.

    * * *

    Maximilian Forte is an associate professor in the Department of Sociology and Anthropology at Concordia University in Montreal, Canada. He writes at Zero Anthropology and has authored multiple books, including Slouching Towards Sirte: NATO’s War on Libya and Africa.

  • UK Defense Secretary: "Russia Is Ready To Kill Us By The Thousands"

    Brits woke up to read the following brazenly fearmongering headline in their daily paper today: ‘Russia is ready to kill us by the thousands’: Defence Secretary warns that Moscow could cause mass casualties by crippling crucial energy supplies.” 

    Recently installed in office, UK Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson is already beating the drums of a new Cold War while seeking to expand Britain’s defense budget, claiming a new ‘Russian invasion’ of sorts is coming. In an interview with The Telegraph Williamson warned that Russia is actively seeking to bring about Britain’s economic collapse by attacking its infrastructure which he said will cause “thousands and thousands and thousands of deaths”. Meanwhile, Russian officials were quick to mock the scenario as “worthy of a Monty Python sketch”.

    Tory Defence Secretary Williamson, considered by many to be a possible successor to Prime Minister Theresa May described the ‘Russian threat’ as more subtle than an outright conventional military invasion, saying “The plan for the Russians won’t be for landing craft to appear in the South Bay in Scarborough, and off Brighton Beach.” Instead, he explained “the real threat” as term of a cyber and electronic warfare doomsday scenario of “creating total chaos within the country.”

    He told The Telegraph:

    “What they [Russians] are looking at doing is they are going to be thinking ‘How can we just cause so much pain to Britain?’. Damage its economy, rip its infrastructure apart, actually cause thousands and thousands and thousands of deaths, but actually have an element of creating total chaos within the country.”

    And Williamson’s evidence for such sensational claims of an impending attack that would bring down nearly overnight civilizational collapse?

    He offered the following: “Why would they keep photographing and looking at power stations, why are they looking at the interconnectors that bring so much electricity and so much energy into our country,” and said further, “If you could imagine the domestic and industrial chaos that this would actually cause. What they would do is cause the chaos and then step back.”

    To underscore that in his mind, he’s not envisioning this threat of a Russian-induced apocalypse far off in either the medium-term or distant future, nor advancing hyperbole or some imagined war game scenario, he added, “This is the real threat that I believe the country is facing at the moment.”

    “They are looking at these things because they are saying these are the ways that we can hurt Britain,” Williamson said. Thought not stating who “they” are in terms of specific persons or organizations caught or observed in the act conducting such surveillance and war-planning as described (other than the ominously sinister ‘Russians’), he went on to delineate some ‘what if’ scenarios: “If we lost our interconnectors, which would be something that we know that they are looking at, there would be 3 million homes without electricity. In a few years’ time there will be 8 million homes that would be dependent.”


    UK Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson:
    Russia is ready to kill us by the thousands.” Image source: AP 

    Shortly after the interview was published, UK energy and infrastructure experts addressed Williamson’s statement about losing electric interconnectors, dismissing the scenario of chaos, mass death, and “millions” without power as absurd and clearly based in scaremongering. One leading energy expert, speaking to The Guardian, admitted candidly, “It does sound a bit like scaremongering really. If you take out one interconnector it’s clear the UK can survive. We saw that last year with the one to France.”

    Williamson’s warning echoed a scenario laid out previously by Air Chief Marshal Sir Stuart Peach in December, who warned that Russia could in an instant end 97 percent of global communications capabilities and disrupt trillions in daily financial transactions, ushering in a “catastrophic” economic collapse, as he claimed Russia has long targeted the roughly 200 international undersea network cables while seeking disruption of Western societies and the global economy (which nonsensically would undermine Russia’s economy as well)

    Though a pattern of reckless Russia-baiting hysteria now seems to have become the default backdrop for any and all public discourse related to national security in the US and UK, it has remained a rarity for someone of Williamson’s rank and office – occupying the highest civilian position over the armed forces – to appeal directly to the common citizenry and Western world in general essentially with words of, “Russia is ready to kill us!”

    Well, let’s just call it a slightly less sophisticated version of Condoleezza Rice’s infamous Saddam scare tactic line, “we don’t want the smoking gun to be a mushroom cloud.” Like with the deceptive and failed Iraq war, such statements – now recognized by much of the thinking public as worn-out jingoistic clichés – by design aim to immediately shut down critical thought or inquiry, whipping up a desperate survival mode mentality, as well as of course raising those defense budgets.

    Indeed on Monday Defence Secretary Williamson sent the nation’s top general to push for expanded defense spending with Moscow as the primary justification for the change in a speech before the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). As The Guardian reported early this week:

    Military chiefs calling for more spending is almost as regular an event as the first cuckoo call. Usually, the calls are left to retired generals and admirals. It is safer for them to make the case; for serving officers it is harder, with the risk of clashing with political masters….

    He [chief of general staff Sir Nick Carter] is making the plea now because the government is about to announce a new defence spending review and the next few months will be dominated by a push by Williamson and the MoD for a rise in the £36bn defence budget.

    Moscow was swift to respond, albeit in an appropriately humorous way, with Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov saying Secretary Williamson had “lost his grasp on reason” and that the comments were “worthy of a Monty Python sketch”. The Russian Embassy in London quickly tweeted in response, “Some British politicians bear no responsibility for their words,” and later in the day issued a formal statement.

    The formal statement, issued through the Russian Embassy in London’s homepage and social media, slammed Williamson’s comments as cheap manipulation of the British public using “confrontational rhetoric” for the sake of getting “a couple of billions of extra pounds from the budget.” The statement reads in part:

    We can see a wide rift between the opinions prevailing in the British society in favour of repairing our bilateral relations – and those among the military and political elite, who prefer to intimidate their own population just to get a couple of billions extra pounds from the budget.

    In the modern world, you just can’t build a respectable policy on confrontational rhetoric. In the long run it will turn out badly for the prestige of the country itself, just like it was after UK actions in Iraq, Libya or Syria.

    “Intimidation” is right, as the same build-up of baseless media and politicians’ fearmongering and subsequent demand for conformity to the prevailing narrative of ‘doomsday is approaching’ was used in the lead-up to every direct as well as covert military interventions of recent history – all of which proved disastrous, leaving blood-soaked chaos in the wake.

    This time, however, it doesn’t appear the public is buying it as we’re not seeing too many British citizens rushing for their nearest bunker or prepper store.

  • Pepe Escobar Puts 'Davos Man' Straight: "It's Inequality, Stupid!"

    Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Asia Times,

    This is what ‘the great and the good’ in the business world were not discussing during the annual talk-fest at the Swiss luxury resort…

     

    For billions of people, the Groucho Marx rule applies when talking about Davos. This is the exclusive club, which meets in the luxury Swiss resort each year to discuss the global business environment.

    Groucho, of course, has been immortalized along with the rest of the Marx Brothers in the zany Hollywood movies of the 1930s, such as A Night a the Opera, A Day at the Races and Animal Crackers.

    In one quick-fire response, he joked: “I sent the club a wire stating, ‘Please accept my resignation. I don’t want to belong to any club that will accept me as a member’.”

    Well, to start off with those billions of people would not get past the bouncers, because the self-defined World Economic Forum is about exclusion. Yet even if, by divine design, they were handed free passes, what would be the point?

    The austerity mantra holds sway over large swathes of Europe. The US remains mired in the fiscal cliff maelstrom and the Japanese are about to unleash an economic tsunami – devaluation of the yen at all costs.     

    On the other hand, growth does apply to parts of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) group of emerging nations and selected members of Next 11.

    Certainly, Indonesia, Mexico, the Philippines, Turkey, South Korea and Vietnam fall into this category in N-11, a BRICS-like organization.

    So, what is the point of spending the GDP of a sub-Saharan country trekking to the Alps to Davos for a mere blabber fest, when basic membership plus access to private sessions at the summit cost a whopping US$245,000?

    For instance, the slopes of Jackson Hole, where the annual central bank symposium is held in Wyoming, are way cooler. 

    In comparison, Davos is essentially double-dip land.

    On one side, we have ‘Bad for Labor’, with millions in the West thrown into an unemployment hell or suffering from a wages freeze. 

    On the other side, we have ‘Good for Capital’, with companies flush with cash.

    Yet the result is uncertainty, all over again. Quite simply, more “robust” companies are just not investing. Why? Because there is no demand. That is the “price” of the austerity mantra, and there is no evidence that the business, financial and government suits in Davos will address the drama.

    After all, since the 1990s, the summit has always been about hardcore globalization and its prime spin-off – the absolute marketization of everything in life. 

    To get to the bottom of it, CEOs, bankers and techno-bureaucrats would have to engage in an in-depth discussion of hardcore neoliberalism.

    To do that, they would have to bring in David Harvey, the distinguished professor of anthropology and geography at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York, where he has been teaching Karl Marx’s “Capital: Critique of Political Economy” for more than 40 years.

    They would have to hold global banking to account. They would also have to consign austerity to the dustbin of history, and level the playing field between capital and labor. Of course, that will not happen.

    Still, this year’s Davos theme is “Resilient Dynamism.” As a definition of the current woes of turbo-capitalism, a five-year-old in a favela, or slum, in Rio could come up with something more meaningful. 

    But then, Davos is a one-trick pony. “Resilience” remains a euphemism for the ever-expanding markets and low pay for workers syndrome. In a nutshell, globalization driven by huge multinational corporations.

    We should scrap “Resilience” as the name of their game is “Inequality.” Davos, of course, does not do “inequality.” 

    In a study released by UC Berkeley, the wealth of the top 1% of Americans accrued by 11.6% in 2010, while for the other 99% it was a mere 0.2%. This is what is at the heart of hardcore neoliberalism and capitalist.  

    Davos should be discussing how a key segment of elites concocted the Wall Street-provoked financial crash. That was only ‘virtual’ business, but it was not ‘virtual’ national governments that had to intervene afterward to pick up the bill and bail out the banks.  

    No, I am afraid “Resilient Dynamism” will not do for Davos. But it is a good definition of China. While European and American elites accrue their capital to contain Beijing’s advance in Africa and Asia, China’s interventionism is of the business kind. It is a case of building roads, not wars. 

    Still, the question Davos refuses to ask remains: Why is it easier to imagine the total destruction of mankind, from nuclear war to a climate catastrophe, than to work on changing the system of relations spawned by capitalism? 

    Stay tuned for that one. 

  • Mapping Out The World's Bitcoin ATMs

    Bitcoin ATMs allow consumers to exchange their cash for Bitcoins, and vice versa. Although the Bitcoin machines are not ATMs in the more traditional sense that we are accustomed, these kiosks are connected to the internet in order to accept cash deposit, exchange for Bitcoins or send Bitcoin to a public key on the blockchain.

    However, fees to using Bitcoin ATMs are known for being excessive. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) says that “they may also charge high transaction fees – media reports describe transaction fees as high as 7% and exchange rates $50 over rates you could get elsewhere.” However, the high fees have not slowed the growth of crypto kiosks popping up around the world. HowMuch.net decided to take a deeper look into the world’s Bitcoin ATM supply.

     

    Source: HowMuch.net

    We gathered our data primarily from Coin ATM Radar and Bitnews Today. Using circle sizes, we mapped out geographical locations where Bitcoin ATMs are in operation. The larger the size of the circle, the greater total number of Bitcoin ATMs there are within the country. In addition, we used a light-to-dark color scheme in order to measure the ratio of Bitcoin ATMs to population. The smaller the circle, the fewer number of Bitcoin ATMs per 1 million people. On the other hand, the darker Bitcoin logos represent the greater number of Bitcoin ATMs available per million individuals.

    U.S. Has Greatest Number Of Bitcoin ATMs, Austria Has Largest Concentration

    According the visual, the United States is home to greatest number of Bitcoin ATMs with 1,330 machines.

    However, Austria has the greatest concentration of Bitcoin ATMs per million people, which makes the country have some of the greatest accessibility to crypto funds in the world. With that said, North America dominates the Bitcoin ATM market, which accounts for 76.10% of the world’s cryptocurrency machines. Europe is home to the second most Bitcoin ATMs in the world with 18.80% of the total market. As Asian governments have continued to crackdown on cryptocurrency with imposing bans or strict regulations, the continent has fallen to the third largest region with 2.50% of the Bitcoin ATM market.

    Making up the bottom half of the Bitcoin ATM market is Australia, Central & South America, and Africa. Australia accounts for 1.20% and Central & South America make up 1.30% of the world’s operational Bitcoin ATMs. While Africa has essentially no Bitcoin ATM coverage, with a meager 0.05% thanks to one machine located in Nigeria.

    In the future, Africa will likely adopt Bitcoin ATMs as the continent further discovers the potential benefits that could help unlock economic growth. Cryptocurrency still remains in its early stages and it will likely take some more time before we start seeing further growth in the number of Bitcoin ATMs within the region.

    Here is a breakdown of the chart, based on each continent’s percentage of the world’s Bitcoin ATM market share:

    1. North America: 76.10%

    2. Europe: 18.80%

    3. Asia 2.50%

    4. Central & South America 1.30%

    5. Australia 1.20%

    6. Africa 0.05%

    Overall, the total number of Bitcoin ATMs doubled in 2017. As of the end of 2017, there were more than 2,000 operational machines across sixty countries. On average, there were five new cryptocurrency ATMs installed each day last year. While the United States may have the most Bitcoin ATMs, Austrians that have the greatest access to these crypto machines. By having the greatest concentration of crypto ATM machines, Austria serves as a stand-out model on how to increase adoption and accessibility to cryptocurrency funds.

  • 2018 Looks To Be Another Good Year For Weapons-Makers

    Authored by William D Hartung via The Mises Institute,

    As Donald Trump might put it, major weapons contractors like Boeing, Raytheon, and Lockheed Martin cashed in “bigly” in his first year in office. They raked in tens of billions of dollars in Pentagon contracts, while posting sharp stock price increases and healthy profits driven by the continuation and expansion of Washington’s post-9/11 wars. But last year’s bonanza is likely to be no more than a down payment on even better days to come for the military-industrial complex.

    President Trump moved boldly in his first budget, seeking an additional $54 billion in Pentagon funding for fiscal year 2018. That figure, by the way, equals the entire military budgets of allies like Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and Japan. Then, in a bipartisan stampede, Congress egged on Trump to go even higher, putting forward a defense authorization bill that would raise the Pentagon’s budget by an astonishing $85 billion. (And don’t forget that, last spring, the president and Congress had already tacked an extra $15 billion onto the 2017 Pentagon budget.)  The authorization bill for 2018 is essentially just a suggestion, however — the final figure for this year will be determined later this month, if Congress can come to an agreement on how to boost the caps on domestic and defense spending imposed by the Budget Control Act of 2011. The final number is likely to go far higher than the staggering figure Trump requested last spring.

    And that’s only the beginning of the good news for the big weapons companies. Industry officials and Beltway defense analysts aren’t expecting the real increase in Pentagon spending to come until the 2019 budget. It’s a subject sure to make it into the mid-term elections. Dangling potential infusions of Pentagon funds in swing states and swing districts is a tried and true way to influence voters in tight races and so will tempt candidates in both parties.

    President Trump has long emphasized job creation above much else, but if he has an actual jobs program, it mainly seems to involve pumping more money into the Pentagon and increasing overseas arms sales. That such spending is one of the least effective ways to create new jobs evidently matters little. It is, after all, an easy and popular way for a president to give himself the look of stimulating economic activity, especially in an era of steep tax cuts favoring the plutocratic class and attacks on domestic spending.

    Trump’s much-touted $1 trillion infrastructure plan may never materialize, but the Pentagon is already on course to spend $6 trillion to $7 trillion of your taxes over the next decade. As it happens though, a surprising percentage of those dollars won’t even go into the military equivalent of infrastructure. Based on what we know of Pentagon expenditures in 2016, up to half of such funds are likely to go directly into the coffers of defense contractors rather than to the troops or to basic military tasks like training and maintenance.

    While the full impact of Trump’s proposed Pentagon spending increases won’t be felt until later this year and in 2019, he did make a significant impact last year in his role as arms-dealer-in-chief. Early estimates for 2017 suggest that arms sales approvals in the first year of his administration exceeded the Obama administration’s record in its last year in office — no mean feat given that President Obama set a record for overseas arms deals during his eight-year tenure.

    You undoubtedly won’t be surprised to learn that President Trump greatly exaggerated the size of his administration’s arms deals. Typically enough, he touted “$110 billion” in proposed sales to Saudi Arabia, a figure that included deals already struck under Obama and highly speculative offers that may never come to fruition.  While visiting Japan in November, he similarly took credit for sales of the staggeringly expensive, highly overrated F-35 combat aircraft, a deal that was actually concluded in 2012. To add insult to injury, those F-35s that the U.S. is selling Japan will be assembled there, not in the good old U.S.A. (So much for the jobs benefits of global weapons trading.)

    Nonetheless, when you peel away the layers of Trumpian bombast and exaggeration, his administration still posted one of the highest arms sales figures of the last decade and there’s clearly much more to come. In all of this, the president may not have done major favors for America’s workers, but he’s been a genuine godsend for the country’s arms manufacturers. After all, such firms extract significantly greater profits on foreign deals than on sales to the Pentagon. When selling to other countries, they normally charge higher prices for weapons systems, while including costly follow-on agreements for maintenance, training, and things like additional bombs, missiles, or ammunition that can continue for decades.

    In fact, Trump’s biggest challenge in accelerating U.S. arms exports may not be foreign competition, but the fact that the Obama administration made so many high-value arms deals. Some countries are still busy trying to integrate the weapons systems or other merchandise they’ve already purchased and may not be ready to conclude new arms agreements.

    The Good News for Arms Makers: More War

    There are, however, a number of reasons to think that the major weapons makers will do even better in the coming years than they did in the banner year of 2017.

    Start with America’s wars. As defense expert Micah Zenko of Chatham House explained recently at Foreign Policy, President Trump has been doubling down on many of the wars he inherited from Obama. The moves of his administration (peopled, of course, by generals from those very wars) include the increasing use of Special Operations forces, a dramatic rise in air strikes, and an increase in troop levels in conflicts ranging from Afghanistan and Yemen to Syria and Somalia. It remains to be seen whether the president’s favorite Middle Eastern ally, Saudi Arabia, will be successful in goading his administration — replete with Iranophobes, including Secretary of Defense James Mattis and CIA Director Mike Pompeo — into taking military action against Tehran. Such calculations have been complicated by recent anti-government protests there, which the president and his inner circle hope will lead to regime change from within. (Trump’s crowing about unrest in Iran has, however, been decidedly unhelpful to genuine advocates of democracy in that country, given the low esteem in which he’s held throughout Iranian society.)

    Such far-flung military operations will naturally cost money. Lots of it. Minimally, tens of billions of dollars; hundreds of billions if one or more of those wars escalates in an unexpected way — as happened in Afghanistan and Iraq in the Bush years. As a study by the Costs of War Project at Brown University’s Watson Institute recently noted, our post-9/11 wars have already cost at least $5.6 trillion when one takes into account both direct budgetary commitments and long-term obligations, including lifetime care for the hundreds of thousands of American veterans who suffered severe physical and psychological damage in those conflicts. It’s important to remember that such immense costs emerged from what was supposed to be a quick, triumphant war in Afghanistan and what top Bush administration officials were convinced would be a relatively inexpensive regime change operation in Iraq and the garrisoning of that country. (That invasion and occupation was then projected to cost just a cut-rate $50 billion to $200 billion.)

    Don’t be surprised if the conflicts that Trump has inherited and is now escalating follow a similar pattern in which actual costs far outstrip initial estimates, even if not at the stratospheric levels of the Afghan and Iraq wars, which involved the commitment of hundreds of thousands of “boots on the ground.” All of this spending will again be good financial news for the producers of combat aircraft, munitions, armored vehicles, drones, and attack helicopters, among other goods and services needed to sustain a policy of endless war across significant parts of the planet.

    Beyond the hot wars that have involved U.S. troops and air strikes in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Pakistan, Somalia, Syria, and Yemen, there are scores of other places where this country’s Special Operations forces are on the ground training local militaries and in many cases accompanying them on missions that could quickly turn deadly, as happened to four Green Berets operating in Niger in October 2017. With Special Ops personnel engaged in a staggering 149 countries last year and a pledge to step up U.S. activities yet more in Africa — there are already 6,000 U.S. troops and scores of “train and equip” missions on that continent — spending is essentially guaranteed to go up, whatever the specifics of any given conflict. There are already calls by leading members of Congress to increase the size of U.S. Special Operations forces, which, as TomDispatch’s Nick Turse notes, already number nearly 70,000 personnel.

    Boondoggles, Inc.

    Rest assured, however, that so far we’ve only taken a dip in the shallow end of the deep, deep pool of military spending. Equally important to the bottom lines of Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, General Dynamics, and their cohorts is the Trump administration’s commitment to continue funding weapons systems the Pentagon doesn’t need at prices we can’t afford. Take the F-35 combat plane, a Rube Goldberg contraption once designed to carry out multiple missions and now capable of doing none of them well.

    In fact, as the Project on Government Oversight has pointed out, it’s an aircraft that may never be fully ready for combat. To add insult to injury, billions more will be spent to fix defects in planes that were rushed through production before they had been fully tested. The cost of this “too big to fail” program is currently projected at $1.5 trillion over the lifetimes of the 2,400-plus aircraft currently planned for. This means it is likely to become the most expensive weapons program in the history of Pentagon procurement. 

    Unfortunately, the F-35 is hardly the only boondoggle that will continue to pad the coffers of defense contractors while offering little in the way of defense (no less the usual offense). A recent estimate from the Congressional Budget Office, for example, suggests that a projected three-decade Pentagon plan to build a new generation of nuclear-armed missiles, bombers, and submarines, initiated under President Obama and close to the heart of Donald Trump, will cost up to $1.7 trillion dollars. This stunning figure includes spending on new nuclear warheads under development at the Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration, one of many channels for military spending that are outside the Pentagon’s already bloated budget. And given the history of such weapons systems and the cost overruns that regularly accompany them, keep in mind that $1.7 trillion will probably prove a gross underestimate. The Government Accountability Office, for instance, has released a report suggesting that the program to build a new generation of ballistic missile submarines, now priced at $128 billion, is going to blow past that figure.

    In recent years, hawks in Congress have been pressing for more funding for missile defense and Donald Trump (with the help of “Little Rocket Man”) is their guy. David Willman of the Los Angeles Times reports that the Trump administration wants to spend more than $10 billion over the next five years beefing up a deeply flawed project for placing ground-based missile interceptors in Alaska and California. This is just one of a number of missile defense initiatives under way.

    In 2018, Lockheed, Boeing, and General Atomics are also scheduled to test drones that will reportedly use lasers to shoot down intercontinental ballistic missiles like those being developed by North Korea. It’s a program that will undoubtedly garner tens of billions of dollars more in taxpayer funding in the years to come. And Congress isn’t waiting until a final Pentagon budget for 2018 is wrapped up to lavish more money on missile defense contractors. A stopgap spending bill passed in late December 2017 kept most programs at current levels, but offered a special gift of nearly $5 billion extra for anti-missile initiatives.

    In addition, a congressionally financed study of the best place to base an East Coast missile defense system — a favorite hobbyhorse of Republicans on the House Armed Services Committee that even the Pentagon has little interest in pursuing — is scheduled to be released later this year. The Congressional Budget Office already suggests that the price tag for that proposed system would be at least $3.6 billion in its first five years of development. Yet deploying it, as the Union of Concerned Scientists has pointed out, would have little or no value when it comes to protecting the United States from a missile attack. If the project moves ahead, it won’t be the first time Congress has launched a costly, unnecessary spending program that the Pentagon didn’t even request.

    Cybersecurity has been another expanding focus of concern — and funding — in recent years, as groups ranging from the Democratic National Committee to the National Security Agency have been hit by determined hackers. The concern may be justified, but the solution — throwing billions at the Pentagon and starting a new Cyber Command to press for yet more funding — is misguided at best. One of the biggest bottlenecks to crafting effective cyber defenses is the lack of personnel with useful and appropriate skills, a long-term problem that short-term infusions of cash will not resolve. In any case, some of the most vulnerable places — from the power grid to the banking system — will have to be dealt with by private firms that should be prodded by stricter government regulations, a concept to which Donald Trump seems to be allergic. As it happens, though, creating enforceable government standards turns out to be one of the most important ways of addressing cyber-security challenges.

    Despite the likely spending spree to come, don’t expect the Pentagon, the arms makers, their lobbyists, or their allies in Congress, to stop crying out for more. There’s always a new weapons scheme or a new threat to hype or another ill-conceived proposal for a military “solution” to a complicated security problem. Trillions of dollars and hundreds of thousands of lives later, the primary lesson from the perpetual wars and profligate weapons spending of this century should be that throwing more money at the Pentagon isn’t making us any safer. But translating that lesson into a change in Washington’s spending patterns would take major public pushback at a level that has yet to materialize.

    Genuine opposition to runaway Pentagon spending may yet emerge, if, as expected, President Trump, Paul Ryan, and the Republican Congress follow up their trillion-dollar tax giveaway with an assault on Medicare and Social Security. At that point, the devastating domestic costs of overspending on the Pentagon should become far more difficult to ignore.

    This year will undoubtedly be a banner year for arms companies. The only question is: Might it also mark the beginning of a future movement to roll back unconstrained weapons expenditures?

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Today’s News 26th January 2018

  • Germany: Return Of The Stasi Police State?

    Authored by Judith Bergman via The Gatestone Institute,

    • Germany’s new law requires social media platforms, such as Facebook, Twitter and YouTube, to censor their users on behalf of the government. Social media companies are obliged to delete or block any online “criminal offenses” within 24 hours of receipt of a user complaint — regardless of whether the content is accurate or not.
    • Social media platforms now have the power to shape the form of current political and cultural discourse by deciding who will speak and what they will say.
    • Notice the ease with which the police chief mentioned that he had filed charges to silence a leading political opponent of the government. That is what authorities do in police states: Through censorship and criminal charges, they silence outspoken critics and political opponents of government policies, such as Beatrix von Storch, who has sharply criticized Chancellor Angela Merkel’s migration policies.
    • While such policies would doubtless have earned the German authorities many points with the old Stasi regime of East Germany, they more than likely contravene the European Convention of Human Rights (ECHR) to which Germany is a party, as well as the case law of the European Court of Human Rights.

    Germany’s new censorship law, which has introduced state censorship on social media platforms, came into effect on October 1, 2017. The new law requires social media platforms, such as Facebook, Twitter and YouTube, to censor their users on behalf of the German state. Social media companies are obliged to delete or block any online “criminal offenses” such as libel, slander, defamation or incitement, within 24 hours of receipt of a user complaint — regardless of whether the content is accurate or not. Social media companies are permitted seven days for more complicated cases. If they fail to do so, the German government can fine them up to 50 million euros for failing to comply with the law.

    The new censorship law, however, was not fully enforced until January 1, 2018, in order to give the social media platforms time to prepare for their new role as the privatized thought police of the German state. Social media platforms now have the power to shape the form of current political and cultural discourse by deciding who will speak and what they will say.

    On January 1, 2018, however, the law was immediately enforced. Twitter began by suspending the account of the deputy leader of the Alternative for Germany party (AfD), Beatrix von Storch, for 12 hours, after she tweeted the following in response to a New Year’s greeting issued in Arabic by the Cologne Police:

    “What the hell is happening in this country? Why is an official police site tweeting in Arabic? Do you think it is to appease the barbaric, gang-raping hordes of Muslim men?”

    (During New Year’s Eve of 2015/16, over 1,000 mainly Muslim men sexually assaulted around 1,200 women in Cologne.)

    Von Storch also had her Facebook account suspended for repeating her tweet there. Facebook told her that her post contravened German law, as it constituted “incitement to hatred”.

    It did not stop there. Cologne police filed charges against von Storch for “incitement to hatred”, which is punishable under section 130 of the German Criminal Code. According to the Cologne police chief, Uwe Jacob, multilingual tweets at major events are an important part of the police’s communication strategy:

    “The campaign was really well received by most people – however, some were bothered by the fact that we tweeted in Arabic and Farsi – they were very prominent right-wingers, who then felt that they had to make tweets that incited to hatred. We simply filed charges”.

    Notice the ease with which the police chief mentioned that he had filed charges to silence a leading political opponent of the government. That is what authorities do in police states: Through censorship and criminal charges, they silence outspoken critics and political opponents of government policies, such as von Storch, who has sharply criticized Chancellor Angela Merkel’s migration policies.

    While such policies would doubtless have earned the German authorities many points with the old Stasi regime of East Germany, they more than likely contravene the European Convention of Human Rights (ECHR) to which Germany is a party, as well as the case law of the European Court of Human Rights. Article 10 of the European Convention of Human Rights states:

    1. Everyone has the right to freedom of expression. This right shall include freedom to hold opinions and to receive and impart information and ideas without interference by public authority and regardless of frontiers…

    2. The exercise of these freedoms… may be subject to such… restrictions or penalties as are prescribed by law and are necessary in a democratic society, in the interests of national security, territorial integrity or public safety, for the prevention of disorder or crime, for the protection of health or morals, for the protection of the reputation or rights of others, for preventing the disclosure of information received in confidence, or for maintaining the authority and impartiality of the judiciary.

    In its case law, the European Court of Human Rights has stated that Article 10

    “…protects not only the information or ideas that are regarded as inoffensive but also those that offend, shock or disturb; such are the demands of that pluralism, tolerance and broad-mindedness without which there is no democratic society. Opinions expressed in strong or exaggerated language are also protected”.

    Even more important in the context of charges against politicians is the fact that according to the European Court of Human Rights’ case law:

    “…the extent of protection depends on the context and the aim of the criticism. In matters of public controversy or public interest, during political debate, in electoral campaigns… strong words and harsh criticism may be expected and will be tolerated to a greater degree by the Court”.

    When leading politicians are criminally charged for questioning the actions of the authorities, such as in this case the actions of the police, we are no longer dealing with a democracy, but with a regular police state.

    Several other accounts on Twitter and Facebook were also suspended under the new censorship law in the first days and weeks of January. One such Twitter account was the satirical magazine, Titanic, which was blocked for parodying von Storch’s tweet about the “barbaric hordes” of Muslim men. The privatized Twitter thought police, in their eagerness to censor, had overlooked that Titanic was just poking fun. The suspension of the Titanic account alerted some politicians — a mere three months after the law went into force — to the problematic nature of the law. Leader of the Green party, Simone Peter and Secretary-General of the FDP, Nicola Beer were both critical of the law. “The law is messed up and must be replaced by a decent one”, Beer said.

    Another politician, Martin Sichert, AfD member of the Bundestag for Nürnberg and state Chairman for the AfD, had a Facebook post deleted for violating “community standards”. In the post, which he substantiated with links to factual sources, he drew attention, among other things, to the way women are treated in Afghanistan. He also drew attention to the sexual abuse of small children in Afghanistan:

    “It is scary and at the same time shameful that our state is preventing the enlightenment of citizens by simply censoring factual opinions, publicly available citations and links to reputable sources.”

    Sichert and von Storch are just the most famous people to have their speech shut down on social media. There are countless others, whose stories never reach the media.

    Under the censorship law, anyone can ask a social network operator to delete postings, even if the post does not affect him personally in any way. If the social network provider does not respond within 24 hours, the person wishing to have a post deleted can involve the Federal Office of Justice; there is even a form for this purpose on the homepage of the Federal Office of Justice. This office is responsible for the prosecution of violations, and the district court of Bonn is the sole authority permitted to examine disputes about the criminal liability of comments made on social media and to impose fines on the social media companies for failing to delete those comments within the required 24 hours.

    It is regrettable that Germany, which can barely keep up with the terrorism threat and the wave of violent crime, is spending such vast resources on shutting down the free speech of its citizens on social media. The Federal Department of Justice has rented additional offices in Bonn to house approximately 50 new lawyers and administrators to implement the new law and ensure that the social media providers delete “offending posts” within 24 hours. “It was also important that we created a new file management system,” explains Thomas W. Ottersbach of the Federal Office of Justice in Bonn.

    “This is the only way to ensure that deadlines are met and that a statistical evaluation can be carried out. Because it is important that we keep an eye on which [social media] operator’s complaints are piling up and where they are just isolated cases.”

    The old German police state is back.

  • Paul Craig Roberts Warns "The Russiagate Stakes Are Extreme"

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

    The Republicans’ delay in releasing the summary of the House Intelligence Committee’s Russiagate investigation is giving weight to the presstitutes’ claim that the report is not being released, because it is a hack attempt at a Trump coverup that is not believable. Only Republicans are stupid enough to put themselves in such a situation.

    Readers ask me why the summary memo is not released if it is real. There must be some reasons besides the stupidity of Republicans. Yes, that is so. Among the many reasons that might be blocking release are:

    1) Republicans are very national security conscious. They don’t want to provide precedents for the release of classified information.

    2) Many Republican congressional districts host installations of the military/security complex. Upsetting a large employer and directing campaign financing to a challenger is a big consideration.

    3) The George W. Bush/Dick Cheney regime was a neoconservative regime. One consequence is that Republicans are influenced by neoconservatives who stress the alleged “Russian threat.”

    4) The Israel Lobby can unseat any member of the House and Senate. The Israel Lobby is allied with the neoconservatives and this alliance intends to keep the US militarily active against perceived threats to Israel’s hegemony in the Middle East and against Russia, which supports Syria and Iran, countries perceived as threats by Israel.

    5) Many Republicans are themselves invested in false Russiagate allegations against Trump and would like to replace him with Pence. Other Republicans believe that Trump is undermining Washington’s expensively-purchased foreign alliances and, thereby, undermining US power.

    Many Americans do not seem to understand what is at stake. What America is confronted with is a coup conspiracy organized by top officials of the Obama Justice Department, FBI, CIA, the Hillary DNC, and the presstitute media to overturn the result of a democratic election and remove the president from office. The basis of the coup is a fake dossier purchased for money that consists of unsupported allegations against Trump and that was used to obtain warrants from the FISA count to spy on Trump and various associates hoping to find something that can be used against Trump. Regardless, the false allegations could be fed to the CIA’s media assets and used to create a scandal requiring a special prosecutor to investigate Russiagate.

    Once the investigation was under way, the presstitutes kept the scandal alive hoping to convince enough Americans that Trump must have done something—“where there is smoke, there is fire”—that justifies his removal. It worked against Richard Nixon, but not against Ronald Reagan, and Trump is no Reagan.

     

    If the highest reaches of the police state agencies can get away with an attempted or successful coup against the president of the United States, then that is the complete end of democracy and all accountability in government. The House, Senate, and judiciary will become as powerless as the Roman senate under the caesars. We will live under a dictatorship ruled by police state agencies.

    Many Americans say they don’t need the House Intelligence Report, because they don’t believe the Russiagate BS in the first place. They miss the point. They need the report, because those responsible for this attempt at a coup must be identified, charged, and prosecuted for their act of high treason.

    This is not minor stuff. This goes to the heart of whether any form of liberty will exist. We all know that the ability of the people to hold government accountable is not assured by democracy. However, there is no prospect of holding government accountable if it is a police state, a road that the US has been going down for some time. The audacious coup attempt against President Trump is our opportunity to stop the momentum to a police state.

    Despite my recent postings, many people do not understand that the somewhat redacted FISA court document that has been declassified and released and explained by myself, William Binney, and former US Attorney Joe di Genova contains admissions by the FBI and DOJ that they improperly spied and obtained warrants from the court under false pretenses. In other words, we have it on the authority of the FISA court itself that the FBI and DOJ have admitted to the court their transgressions. When Department of Justice (sic) congressional liaison Stephen Boyd says the DOJ is “unaware of any wrongdoing,” he is lying through his teeth. The DOJ has already confessed its wrongdoing to the FISA court.

    (See Lendman on Boyd’s claim that releasing the memo would harm national security and ongoing investigations. This is always the claim made when government has to cover up its crimes. )

    When Admiral Rodgers, director of the National Security Agency, discovered that the FBI and DOJ were misusing the spy system for partisan political reasons, he let it be known that he was going to inform the FISA court. This caused the FBI and DOJ to rush to the court in advance and confess to “mistakes” and to promise to tighten up procedures so as not to make mistakes in the future. It is these “mistakes” and corrections that the FISA court document reveals.

    In other words, the information already exists in the pubic domain that proves that Russiagate was a conspiracy organized for the purpose of bringing down the elected president of the United States.

    A case can be made that it would be just as well if the coup succeeds as it would bring an end to Washington’s cover as the government of a great democracy with liberty and justice for all. Most other governments, and one would hope certainly the Russian and Chinese governments, would see the coup as America’s final transition into a police state and give up their utopian ideas of reaching accommodation with Washington. The constraints on Washington’s ability to bully the world would be greatly strengthened by the universal perception that the government of the United States had devolved into a police state.

  • The Era Of AI-Generated 'Fake Porn' Has Arrived

    They call them “deepfakes.”

    It’s the term for pornography made using artificial intelligence-assisted technology to superimpose a person’s face on another performer’s body – essentially allowing the producer to create fake porn featuring celebrities, politicians or even average every people.

    In a report published Wednesday, Motherboard recounted how they discovered a user on Reddit responsible for producing convincing porn videos featuring celebrities like Gal Gadot, Maisie Williams and Taylor Swift.

    Pretty soon, the technology used to create “deepfakes” will be widely available enough to be used by extortionists and criminals with only a cursory understanding of how the software works. Another redditor discovered by Motherboard even created an app specifically designed to allow users without a computer science background to create AI-assisted fake porn. All the tools one needs to make these videos are free, readily available, and accompanied with instructions that walk novices through the process.

    Two months ago, the first redditor mentioned above created a subreddit dedicated to the practice.

    In that short time, the subreddit has already amassed more than 15,000 subscribers. Within the community, the word “deepfake” itself is now a noun for the kinds of neural-network generated fake videos their namesake pioneered, according to Motherboard.

    Another “deepfake” auteur created an app called FakeApp, a user-friendly application that allows anyone to recreate these videos with their own datasets. The app is based on deepfakes’ algorithm, but another user who goes by deepfakeapp created FakeApp without the help of the original deepfakes. While none of these people divulged their identity to Motherboard, the user known as Deepfakeapp said in a direct message that his goal with creating FakeApp was to make deepfakes’ technology available to people without a technical background or programming experience.

    “I think the current version of the app is a good start, but I hope to streamline it even more in the coming days and weeks,” he said. “Eventually, I want to improve it to the point where prospective users can simply select a video on their computer, download a neural network correlated to a certain face from a publicly available library, and swap the video with a different face with the press of one button.”

    Peter Eckersley, chief computer scientist at the Electronic Frontier Foundation, fears the technology will soon reach the point where fakes are virtually indistinguishable for authentic videos.

    “I think the current version of the app is a good start, but I hope to streamline it even more in the coming days and weeks,” he said. “Eventually, I want to improve it to the point where prospective users can simply select a video on their computer, download a neural network correlated to a certain face from a publicly available library, and swap the video with a different face with the press of one button.”

    Fakes posted in the subreddit have already been pitched as real on other websites; a deepfake of Emma Watson taking a shower was uploaded by CelebJihad, a celebrity porn site that regularly posts hacked celebrity nudes, as a “never-before-seen video” purportedly from the user’s “private collection.”

     

    Fake

    Here’s an example of a “deepfake”

    Other redditors have taken video trained from celebrities’ Instagram accounts and used it to convincingly fake Snapchat messages.

    “Deepfakes” are hardly a new phenomenon. Last July, we reported on a project conducted by Stanford’s Matthias Niessner that managed to create several faked videos of former US President Barack Obama.

    Soon, this technology could create problems for everybody, from governments, to corporations to the news media – which will now find it even more difficult to distinguish veritable “Fake News” from reality.

  • Immigrants Vs. Aliens: The Global Invasion-Giveaway Continues

    Authored by Jeremiah Johnson (nom de plume of a retired Green Beret of the United States Army Special Forces) via SHTFplan.com,

    The United States was a nation founded by immigrants, and immigration has always had a clear-cut path toward American citizenship. The United States was built by successive waves of immigrants who came to America in search of a better life. There is a difference between being an immigrant and being an illegal alien. Immigrants follow the rules of the nation they emigrate to and pursue a legitimate path toward permanent citizenship or toward legal employment in the country. Illegal aliens bypass all legal systems in place…rules designed to protect citizens of the country in numerous ways.

    For the past 100 years, the United States has pursued a laissez-faire policy toward illegal aliens. Much of this was because American businesses and industries such as farming and mining, for example, wanted illegal aliens to come here. They wanted to pay them under the table, avoiding the taxes and withholding, and circumventing the minimum wage. The public was also complicit: turning a blind eye, provided that it didn’t directly affect them.

    But it did…and year after year, tens of thousands of illegal aliens crossed our borders and started their new lives in America…at the expense of American citizens.

    Now it has changed into something completely different:

    Now it is a part of the socialist playbook based on Cloward and Piven, and Alinsky’s actions and doctrines to destroy the United States from within; it has become a global movement toward the goal of global governance.

    This is not immigration, either in the U.S. or worldwide. It is the planned, systematic destruction of national identities and sovereignties. This is being accomplished in several manners:

    1. The religious differences are so pronounced between these aliens who are Muslims and the citizens of the traditionally-Christian nations of Europe that underlying tensions are one step away from warfare between citizens and aliens.
    2. Laws in these countries are being “restructured” to facilitate the insertion of these aliens against the host-citizens’ wills.
    3. The efforts (globally) are coordinated and funded by a consortium of oligarchs and politicians who are utilizing the chaos, confusion, and instability to destroy the nations and push them toward global governance.
    4. Armies of NGO’s (Nongovernmental Organizations) under the guises of “humanitarian efforts” or “political dialogue” are in reality “embassies” and front-man representatives to carry out the planned dissolution of national borders and recruit citizenry in the form of “5th columnists” to destroy these nations from within.

    The world of George Orwell’s “1984” solidifies more by the day: increased surveillance, decreasing freedoms, and tensions throughout the world to keep whole populations unbalanced while fueling the war machine with money…taxed monies…of the global Military Industrial complex.

    Van Jones: “Top down, bottom up.”

    Encouraging “revolutions” by the stupid, uncomprehending youth, who all believe the nonsense of “making a difference” when what they are doing is playing the parts of puppets in the globalists’ hands. Guess what?  The globalists will round up the “new Bohemians,” and shoot them in the back of the head in the end.

    Hungary and Czechoslovakia are now the only nations with leaders that are standing up against the tide of the invasion of Europe: the planned and purposed insertion of illegal aliens into Europe’s nations. All of this is designed to destroy the homogeneity of the populations, destroy the borders, language, culture, and religions of the nations, and enable the removal of national boundaries…thus creating gigantic, corporate “continents” for “juntas” of oligarchs and politicos to rule over.

    Gefira released a piece on 1/19/18 entitled The Incredible Shrinking Population: By 2080 Italians Will Be a Minority in Their Own Nation. The article points out that mass “migration” from Asia and Africa will overwhelm and overshadow a population that already has a lowered birth rate. The article is a “representative slice” of the whole pie, as this is being duplicated in every nation in Europe except for those two previously mentioned.

    The President is enforcing the laws, and the illegals in the U.S. are being deported. There is another side to the seesaw that bears mention, however, as “every rose has its thorn.” The “thorn” here being this:

    The illegals being deported from the United States are not “evicted” at a rate to make a dent, and the screws are tightening down on scrutinizing individual citizens: a step away from such things as a national ID card and a permanent police state.

    The evil genius of the globalists is their capability to “seesaw” the game, and as they accomplish one thing (perhaps hidden), if it appears to be “good” or in opposition to their plans? Under closer scrutiny, it shows a hidden agenda, a purpose that seems good on the surface but upon closer examination can be changed to serve nefarious intentions.

    Thus, it is with the fostered insertions of illegal aliens into the countries of Europe and the United States. The ironic part is that these aliens are unwitting tools whom the globalists could care less about and are just using. Once the world is under their rule, the aliens will be dealt with in the manner outlined with the “young revolutionaries” before…along with the rest of the citizens that cannot be made compliant in the global governance coming closer to fruition every day.

  • All Generations Think America Is At A Low Point

    America is living through stressful times.

    According to the American Psychological Association, a majority of people from each generation would agree that their country is at a low point looking back on their lifetime experience.

     

    As Statista’s Dyfed Loesche notes, this even applies to the generation of the over 72-year olds who witnessed such devastating events as the Japanese Attack on Pearl Habor and the ensuing Second World War.

    Infographic: All Generations Think America is at a Low Point | Statista

    You will find more statistics at Statista

    Of all generations, it’s the Xers who are most pessimistic about this time and age, according to the findings published in the report State of our Nation from November 2017.

  • Kurdish Leaders Implore Assad To Defend Afrin From The Turks

    Submitted by Leith Fadel via Al-Masdar News,

    The Kurdish authorities in the Afrin Canton of Aleppo have called on the Syrian government of Bashar Al-Assad to defend the region from the attacking Turkish forces, the SBS News reported Thursday evening.

    According to the SBS News report, a statement posted on the website for the Afrin authorities underscored the complexity of the Syrian war and the ongoing problems caused by the Turkish aggression in northern Syria.

    “We call on the Syrian state to carry out its sovereign obligations towards Afrin and protect its borders with Turkey from attacks of the Turkish occupier … and deploy its Syrian armed forces to secure the borders of the Afrin area,” the statement said, as quoted by SBS News. A similar report was released by Al-Mayadeen TV on Wednesday; however, it was later denied by the official media wing of the  Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG).

     


    Image via Al Masdar News

    Meanwhile, as “Operation Olive Branch” entered its sixth day, Ankara’s foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu has stated that Turkey has no intention of targeting or attacking troops of the Syrian Arab Army. Cavusoglu said this during an interview with journalists on Thursday. The Minister of Foreign Affairs said that Turkey wished to preserve Syria’s unity, and as such will not attack any Syrian Arab Army forces or equipment.

    “While they do not attack us, we do not need to consider them as our target. Up to this day, we have not taken such actions,” Cavusoglu said. “Damascus knows that the YPG militias (People’s Protection Units) want to divide Syria. Whereas Turkey and Damascus as well as the opposition forces are all supportive of the territorial integrity of Syria within its current borders. We believe that the Syrian regime will not cooperate with terrorists,” the minister added.

    Turkey considers the Kurdish YPG militias in Syria to be an affiliate of the banned Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which is labeled a terrorist organization by Ankara. The Turkish offensive came in direct reaction to recent statements by the US and its Kurdish allies in northern Syria, that they would form a US-trained “border security force” consisting out of Kurdish troops, a move seen by many as a step towards secession of the Kurdish areas from Syria.

    Despite Turkey claiming it seeks to “help” Syria in preserving its unity, the fact that its offensive entered Syrian soil without permission from Damascus, combined with the fact that Turkey has been actively supporting Syrian “moderate rebels” of the so-called Free Syrian Army for years now as part of Operation Euphrates Shield, have made Damascus very wary of the Olive Branch operation.

    Meanwhile, after multiple accusations coming from Turkish officials this week that the US is supporting a “terror army” in northern Syria, the Pentagon has denied providing any training or arms to the Kurds located in the Afrin area in particular, according to a statement by the Pentagon’s Joint Staff Director Lt. Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr. speaking to reporters on Thursday.

    “We haven’t trained or provided equipment for any of the Kurds that are in Afrin pocket. We are focused on the Euphrates River Valley operations to the South and to the East,” McKenzie said.

    When asked about the plans about the weapons provided to the Syrian Kurds, McKenzie said, “We carefully track weapons that are provided to them.” And he said further, “We ensure that they to the maximum extent possible don’t fall into the wrong hands, and we continue discussions with the Turks on those issues,” he said.

    Last Saturday, the Turkish Armed Forces launched the massive operation against the Kurdish forces in Afrin. Damascus has strongly condemned Ankara’s actions, with the Syrian Foreign Ministry calling them a violation of the country’s sovereignty.

  • Explosive Allegation: Israel Planned To Blow Up Passenger Plane In Arafat Assassination Plot

    For years, many had speculated – for which they were promptly cast as tinfoil hat conspiracy theorists – that when it comes to achieving illegal goals, including but not limited to creating “false flag” terrorism and political assassinations, few are as skilled and industrious as the CIA and Mossad. Especially Mossad.

    Only, as so often happens, most (if not all) such “conspiracy theories” turn out to be truth, in this case exposed thanks to the work of Israeli investigative journalist Ronen Bergman, whose just published explosive book “‘Rise and Kill First: The secret history of Israel’s targeted killings” details such Israeli plans as the assassination of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat which included a plot to blow up passenger planes and football stadiums.

    Ronen Bergman, the intelligence correspondent for Yediot Aharonot newspaper, persuaded many agents of Mossad, Shin Bet and the military to tell their stories, some using their real names.

    The result is the first comprehensive look at Israel’s use of state-sponsored killings.

    An excerpt from the book published in the NYT , details how when former Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon was defense minister, he ordered the Israeli army to shoot down a passenger plane carrying hundreds of innocent people Arafat was thought to be on. Arafat was chairman of the Palestine Liberation Organization at the time. Although the plan was eventually called off, it was allegedly one of a list of plans to to assassinate the Palestinian leader.

    Bergman spoke to hundreds of intelligence and defense officials and studied classified documents which have revealed a “hidden history, surprising even in the context of Israel’s already fierce reputation.”

    “I found that since World War II, Israel has used assassination and targeted-killing more than any other country in the West, in many cases endangering the lives of civilians,” Bermen chillingly wrote, in the process unleashing a whole new series of conspiracies theories, many of which will certainly also be confirmed.

    In another assassination attempt in October 1982, Mossad set its sights on a plane which was carrying 30 wounded children, victims of the Sabra and Shatila massacre by Phalange militia in a Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon.  

    According to the book, Tsomet, the Mossad unit which recruits assets overseas, had heard Arafat would take a plane from Athens to Cairo. Caesarea, the Mossad unit responsible for targeted killings, sent two operatives to wait at Athens airport. F-15 fighters were placed on alert. Mossad eventually realized the man was not Arafat, but his brother – who was bringing wounded Palestinian children to Cairo for medical treatment.

    As Bergmen explains, he first heard of that assassination plan in 2011, but his source made him promise to wait until a second person came forward with the story. In another case detailed in the book, fighter jets surrounded a commercial flight from Jordan to Tunisia, while in another incident, they disrupted a Boeing 707’s communications, Haaretz reports.  

    In addition to Mossad’s apparent penchant for covering up a single assassination among dozens of innocent victims, there is an even more bizarre revelation.

    Bergmen writes of an assassination attempt inspired by the movie The Manchurian Candidate. Israelis reportedly sought to turn a Palestinian prisoner into a trained killer. The only problem is that this backfired when, five hours after being released, the prisoner turned himself into the police and explained everything.   

    Then there was plain old mass murder: another plan was to take out all of the Palestine Liberation Organization leadership by setting up bombs inside a Beirut stadium where the group were planning to celebrate the anniversary of their first operation against Israel. According to the book, the Israelis also set up cars rigged with explosives outside the stadium, set to detonate minutes after the first explosion to target survivors as they were trying to escape.

    The operation was cancelled at the last minute, after a group of officers and the defense minister demanded it be called off.

    “You can’t just kill a whole stadium,” an officer remembered telling then-Prime Minister Menahem Begin. “The whole world will be after us.

    Smart.

    Meanwhile, Israel’s vendetta with Arafat continued and in 1982, Sharon created a special task force named Salt Fish to take out the PLO leader. He appointed special operations experts, Meir Dagan, who later became head of Mossad, and Rafi Eitan, who was then adviser to the defense minister on counterterrorism matters. The group even debated killing Israeli journalists who were going to interview Arafat in Lebanon in 1982, with the consensus being that, yes, it was worth carrying out such an operation. However, Mossad lost the group on the way to the meeting.

    “The feeling was that it was something personal for Sharon,” Air Force commander in Chief Major General David Ivry told Bergmen.

    One can almost see why.

    Still, despite their best efforts, Arafat continued to evade Mossad’s relentless assassination attempts, in no smart part thanks to the occasional normal human being.

    Uzi Dayan, the operation’s commander, told Bergman Arafat was saved by two things, “his interminable good luck and me.”

    He explained that he was concerned about civilians being killed in an assassination, and clashed with Eitan over it, who would get angry over missed opportunities. Dayan even withheld intelligence from Eitan to prevent civilian casualties.

    Eitan would remind Dayan that he did not have the authority to decide whether or not to drop a bomb. But Dayan nonetheless found a way to take a hand in the decision-making. “All I had to do was to report when the target was ripe from the intelligence point of view,” he said. “So from that point on, each time we knew that bombing would lead to massive civilian casualties, we reported that the target wasn’t ripe from the intelligence angle.”

    Based on 1,000 interviews and thousands of documents, and running more than 600 pages, Rise and Kill First makes the case that Israel has used assassination in the place of war, killing half a dozen Iranian nuclear scientists, for instance, rather than launching a military attack. It also strongly suggests that Israel used radiation poisoning to eventually kill Arafat, an act its officials have consistently denied

    * * *

    It wasn’t just Arafat: poisoned toothpaste that takes a month to end its target’s life. Armed drones. Exploding cell phones. Spare tires with remote-control bombs. Assassinating enemy scientists and discovering the secret lovers of Islamic holy men: these were the techniques Israel used to carry out at least 2,700 assassination operations in its 70 years of existence. While many failed, they add up to far more than any other Western country, the book says.

    Bergman, the author of several books, also says that the Israeli secret services sought to interfere with his work, holding a meeting in 2010 on how to disrupt his research and warning former Mossad employees not to speak with him.

    He also claimed that President George W. Bush adopted many Israeli techniques after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, and President Barack Obama launched several hundred targeted killings.

    Bergman raises moral and legal concerns provoked by state-sponsored killing, including the existence of separate legal systems for secret agents and the rest of Israel. But he presents the operations, for the most part, as achieving their aims. While many credit the barrier Israel built along and inside the West Bank with stopping assaults on Israeli citizens in the early 2000s, he argues that what made the difference was “a massive number of targeted killings.”

    One of Bergman’s most important sources was Meir Dagan, a recent head of Mossad for eight years who died in early 2016. Toward the end of his career, Dagan fell out with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu partly over launching a military attack on Iran. Netanyahu said intelligence techniques such as selling the country faulty parts for its reactors — which Israel and the U.S. were doing — weren’t enough.

     


    Ex-Mossad Chief Meir Dagan in 2014

    Finally, we may have to wait for part 2 of the book to learn how many of Mossad’s other clandestine operations leading to “massive civilian casualties” – with several key prominent examples springing to mind – were not stopped from taking place.

  • Comey, Rosenstein, McCabe All Named In FISA Memo, First Leak Reveals

    A bombshell four-page “FISA memo” alleging egregious surveillance abuse by the FBI, DOJ and Obama administration, specifically names FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe, former FBI Director James Comey and Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, according to the Daily Beast

    The GOP-authored memo made waves last week after it was made available to the full House of Representatives for viewing. With over 60 GOP lawmakers calling for its release, Capitol Hill sources on both sides of the aisle tell The Daily Beast that it’s only a matter of time before the general public is allowed to view the document – which is likely to stoke already-inflamed tensions between GOP lawmakers and the individuals named in the leak. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The facts contained in the Republican majority-authored report are said to be “jaw-dropping and demand full transparency,” according to Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), while the top ranking Democrat on the House Intel Committee, Adam Schiff (D-CA) dismissed the memo as “profoundly misleading” talking points drafted by Republican staffers. 

    Several other GOP Congressmembers have weighed in. “I have read the memo,” tweeted Rep. Steve King (R-IA), adding “The sickening reality has set in. I no longer hold out hope there is an innocent explanation for the information the public has seen. I have long said it is worse than Watergate. It was #neverTrump & #alwaysHillary. #releasethememo.”

    Along with the four-page memo, Congressional investigators learned from a new batch of text messages between anti-Trump FBI investigators that several individuals within the Department of Justice and the FBI may have come together in the “immediate aftermath” of the 2016 election to undermine President Trump, according to Rep. John Ratcliffe (R-TX) who has reviewed the texts.

    This is particularly interesting since the memo allegedly names Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein – who created Robert Mueller’s special counsel after former FBI Director James Comey was fired. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    While the “secret society” reference may have been in jest (“Are you even going to give out your calendars? Seems kind of depressing. Maybe it should just be the first meeting of the secret society,” Page wrote to Strzok), a whistleblower has allegedly confirmed the existence of clandestine, of high ranking U.S. intelligence officials which met “offsite” to conspire against a sitting President, according to Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI). 

    we have an informant talking about a group holding secret meetings off-site,” Johnson said.

    “We have to continue to dig into it,” he added. “This is not a distraction. This is biased, potentially corruption at the highest levels of the FBI.” –The Hill

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    On Monday night, Reps. John Ratcliffe (R-TX) and Trey Gowdy (R-SC) told Fox News what they had learned from the new batch of communications between FBI investigators Peter Strzok and Lisa Page – contained within a 384-page batch of text messages delivered to Congress from the DOJ last Friday. Of note Ratcliffe says that Strzok and Page were included in the clandestine anti-Trump cabal at the highest levels of the American intelligence community

    In response to the memo, Congressional Democrats led by Adam Schiff (D-CA) drafted a “counter-memo” to “correct the record” regarding alleged FISA abuse contained within the GOP memo. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Schiff’s “counter-memo” came on the heels of an absurd letter written by Schiff and Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) to Facebook and Twitter executives, calling for the Social Media giants to combat “Russian bots” which were promoting the hashtag #ReleaseTheMemo.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The letter’s claims were immediately shot down by Facebook, which told the Daily Beast that #ReleaseTheMemo hashtag has been pushed by actual Americans

    a knowledgeable source says that Twitter’s internal analysis has thus far found that authentic American accounts, and not Russian imposters or automated bots, are driving #ReleaseTheMemo. There are no preliminary indications that the Twitter activity either driving the hashtag or engaging with it is either predominantly Russian.

    In short, according to this source, who would not speak to The Daily Beast for attribution, the retweets are coming from inside the country.

  • Students Hold "Bleed-In" To Demand Free Menstrual Products

    Authored by Daniel Weldon via Campus Reform,

    University of Florida students walked around campus Tuesday with fake menstrual blood on their pants to protest the lack of free feminine hygiene products on campus.

    On January 15, a student government committee rejected a proposal to provide free menstrual products to female students through the mandatory Activity and Service Fee, expressing concerns about applying mandatory fees paid by all students towards “funding that would only benefit the female half of the UF student body.”

    A student group called “Gatters Matter, Period.,” which began circulating a petition in support of the proposal last fall, responded by organizing a “bleed-in” protest during which roughly two-dozen students stained the back of their pants red, according to The Alligator.

    “This is a part of reproductive justice,” Shannon Matthew, who was among the first students to join the protest, told the Alligator. “I’m not ashamed of my period, and I don’t think anyone should be.”

    A Facebook event page for the “Are You Seeing Red?” demonstration explains that participants wore “washable dye on our bums, as if we didn’t have a pad and the blood bled through.”

    The organizers provided “supplies” for those in need of them, but encouraged students to “bleed-in how ever [sic] you want as well.”

    Following the protest, the proposal was discussed at a meeting of the full Student Senate, where the Alligator reports that Senate President Ian Green announced that a decision had been made to provide free menstrual products at the student union starting in February, though he could not offer details about funding because the arrangement had been worked out by Student Body President Smith Meyers, who was unavailable for comment.

    During the meeting, some senators pointed out that free menstrual products are already available on campus through the Field and Fork Pantry.

    Students are allowed to take up to three bags of menstrual products per week – each containing eight tampons, five liners, and five pads – but student activists retorted that the option is too limited.

    “Heteronormativity is rampant on this campus,” complained Sophia Ahmed, one of the organizers of the “bleed-in” protest.

    “Today I held a little protest for free menstrual protects. If you saw my butt that was evidence. And I say menstrual not feminine because menstruation should not be gendered. Some men get periods.”

    Two student senators, Branden Pearson and Emily Dunson, told The Alligator that they are working to alleviate just such concerns, and hope to secure funding for free menstrual products at several on-campus locations by April 2018.

    They estimate that the project will cost just under $5,000, and speculated that the pilot program could eventually be expanded to include roughly 60 gender-neutral restrooms.

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 25th January 2018

  • Comey, Rosenstein, McCabe All Named In FISA Memo, According To First Leak

    A bombshell four-page “FISA memo” alleging egregious surveillance abuse by the FBI, DOJ and Obama administration, specifically names FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe, former FBI Director James Comey and Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, according to the Daily Beast

    The GOP-authored memo made waves last week after it was made available to the full House of Representatives for viewing. With over 60 GOP lawmakers calling for its release, Capitol Hill sources on both sides of the aisle tell The Daily Beast that it’s only a matter of time before the general public is allowed to view the document – which is likely to stoke already-inflamed tensions between GOP lawmakers and the individuals named in the leak. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The facts contained in the Republican majority-authored report are said to be “jaw-dropping and demand full transparency,” according to Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), while the top ranking Democrat on the House Intel Committee, Adam Schiff (D-CA) dismissed the memo as “profoundly misleading” talking points drafted by Republican staffers. 

    Several other GOP Congressmembers have weighed in. “I have read the memo,” tweeted Rep. Steve King (R-IA), adding “The sickening reality has set in. I no longer hold out hope there is an innocent explanation for the information the public has seen. I have long said it is worse than Watergate. It was #neverTrump & #alwaysHillary. #releasethememo.”

    Along with the four-page memo, Congressional investigators learned from a new batch of text messages between anti-Trump FBI investigators that several individuals within the Department of Justice and the FBI may have come together in the “immediate aftermath” of the 2016 election to undermine President Trump, according to Rep. John Ratcliffe (R-TX) who has reviewed the texts.

    This is particularly interesting since the memo allegedly names Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein – who created Robert Mueller’s special counsel after former FBI Director James Comey was fired. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    While the “secret society” reference may have been in jest (“Are you even going to give out your calendars? Seems kind of depressing. Maybe it should just be the first meeting of the secret society,” Page wrote to Strzok), a whistleblower has allegedly confirmed the existence of clandestine, of high ranking U.S. intelligence officials which met “offsite” to conspire against a sitting President, according to Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI). 

    we have an informant talking about a group holding secret meetings off-site,” Johnson said.

    “We have to continue to dig into it,” he added. “This is not a distraction. This is biased, potentially corruption at the highest levels of the FBI.” –The Hill

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    On Monday night, Reps. John Ratcliffe (R-TX) and Trey Gowdy (R-SC) told Fox News what they had learned from the new batch of communications between FBI investigators Peter Strzok and Lisa Page – contained within a 384-page batch of text messages delivered to Congress from the DOJ last Friday. Of note Ratcliffe says that Strzok and Page were included in the clandestine anti-Trump cabal at the highest levels of the American intelligence community

    In response to the memo, Congressional Democrats led by Adam Schiff (D-CA) drafted a “counter-memo” to “correct the record” regarding alleged FISA abuse contained within the GOP memo. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Schiff’s “counter-memo” came on the heels of an absurd letter written by Schiff and Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) to Facebook and Twitter executives, calling for the Social Media giants to combat “Russian bots” which were promoting the hashtag #ReleaseTheMemo.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The letter’s claims were immediately shot down by Facebook, which told the Daily Beast that #ReleaseTheMemo hashtag has been pushed by actual Americans

    a knowledgeable source says that Twitter’s internal analysis has thus far found that authentic American accounts, and not Russian imposters or automated bots, are driving #ReleaseTheMemo. There are no preliminary indications that the Twitter activity either driving the hashtag or engaging with it is either predominantly Russian.

    In short, according to this source, who would not speak to The Daily Beast for attribution, the retweets are coming from inside the country.

  • Supersonic Air Drills: Russia's Pacific Fleet Prepares For Enemy Incursion

    Russian military jets of the Pacific Fleet’s naval aviation unit (Pacific Fleet) in Kamchatka, a peninsula in the Russian Far East, have been drilling at supersonic speeds along the country’s Pacific coastline preparing for a rapid enemy incursion.

    Earlier this week, fighter-pilots conducted supersonic air battles as high as 20km (12.4274-miles) in the stratosphere, while they simulated intercepting enemy fighter aircraft at high rates of speed, said Itar-Tass. One of the fighter jets had to find and intercept the second, who played the violator, without using land-based technologies such as air defense weapons, the official representative of the Pacific Fleet, Nikolai Voskresensky, stated.

    The high-altitude fighter-interceptor MiG-31, flying at an altitude of about 20 km, acted as a violator of the air border, before the crew of the ‘intruder’ was to penetrate at the maximum speed into the airspace of Russia, to go through the established line and escape from possible persecution. On the alert from the Yelizovo air base (Kamchatka Krai), the MiG-31 interceptor was raised . In order to complicate the task, the search for and destruction of the “offender” was ordered by the MiG-31 crew independently, without the involvement of ground agents Defense “

    – said the Resurrection via Itar-Tass.

    According to Itar-Tass, the pilots of the Mig-31s cruised at supersonic speeds of more than 2200 km/h (1367 mph) and located the “intruder” aircraft at an altitude of nearly 20km (12.4274-miles) in the stratosphere. The Russian paper further says all “intruders” were eliminated and the mission ended in success. Voskresenskiy said the intercepting aircraft fired on the intruding aircraft from a distance of 100km (60 miles). In pace of actual missiles, the planes used special electronic signaling to simulate the kill.

    The Mikoyan MiG-31 is a Cold War-era jet, designed by the Mikoyan and Gurevich Design Bureau, which is now called Russian Aircraft Corporation MiG. NATO codenamed the Mig-31 “Foxhound,” after its impressive acceleration and interception abilities to deter and attack high-altitude intruders.

    The air drill serves as a warning sign that Russia is preparing its air defenses for conflict, especially in the Russian far east. More importantly, the type of exercise signals that Russia is making adjustments for high altitude combat. Russian Pacific Forces on the Kamchatka peninsula, are some of the first lines of defense against an enemy incursion in the air or by sea on its Pacific Coast.

    While the Trump administration prepares the American people and its allies for war on the Korean Peninsula, the Russians have taken note and have conducted wartime preparations before the powder-keg ignites in North Korea. The countdown has started, the writing is on the wall, otherwise, why are militaries in the region all rushing at the same time to prepare for war?

  • ECB Preview: Why This May Not Be An Easy Press Conference For Draghi

    With RanSquawk

    • Unanimous expectations look for the ECB to leave its three key rates unchanged
    • Focus will fall on what hints/if any Draghi delivers on the future path of the Bank’s PSPP
    • Markets will also be looking out for any potential comments from the ECB President on the ongoing EUR appreciation

    During the last two weeks markets have reacted to every single comment from ECB speakers. As Bank of America writes, far from the “peace and quiet” the ECB probably thought it had bought itself last October, this clearly suggests the press conference this week will not be an easy one for Draghi. This reflects what some have highlighted before: changing one part of forward guidance opens the door to the market questioning every single bit of it.

    Communication risks will abound. Getting the right dosage in the successive changes in language will be tricky, especially if divisions appear within the Governing Council. Higher volatility is likely to be a side-effect as we have seen in recent days.  Hence, expect Draghi to emphasize two main messages.

    • First, that any changes to communication, the most relevant ones, will only be very gradual. The minutes were clearly laying the ground for a gradual change in communication.
    • Second, that the sequencing is an ironclad element of forward guidance. Reaffirmation of “sequencing” will be a recurring and crucial element of communication. And do not forget that today’s sequencing also states that rates would not rise before “well after” the end of the net purchases, not just “after”. At this stage, given the prevailing bearishness on inflation, the ECB will maintain this to stop the market from pricing the first hikes too quickly into late 2018/early 2019 and the currency from strengthening further.
    • BofA’s sees risks of a more hawkish outcome, but that does not affect the timing of the first rate hike but the speed of the hiking cycle once it starts. The need to avoid further tightening both through real rates and the currency, limits the extent to which hikes can be brought earlier in time. A smooth transition to a new normal with no net QE purchases and forward guidance transitioning from QE to rates requires credible communication. Reversing the sequencing would damage that credibility. Those expecting rate hikes at the end of this year may end up being disappointed.

    Do not expect any major change to forward guidance this week apart from the removal of the asymmetry in QE, which is not consequential.

    Will Draghi Talk The EUR Lower?

    In the run up to this weeks’ rate decision, a number of ECB officials have been vocal in their attempts to curb the recent rise in the EUR. These comments have coincided with the rally toward 1.23 in EUR/USD which appears to be a de facto line in the sand for many officials. The EUR/USD has benefitted from cyclical support as markets increasingly focus on ECB QE-exit and a shift in ECB forward guidance toward more conventional (rates focussed) guidance. While the December ECB Minutes have effectively consigned the QE era to history the cyclical outperformance of the EUR may have run its course and the single currency is vulnerable to comments from President Draghi during the Q&A session who may take the opportunity to address the recent appreciation.

    While much of the attention has been on the EUR/USD rate, it is worth emphasizing that the EUR TWI is less than 0.5% higher since the start of the year. In this context, the appreciation of EUR is less impressive than the 2% rally in EUR/USD against the backdrop of broad-based USD declines. This may be relevant for Draghi given the appreciation in EUR/USD was accompanied by a 9% appreciation of the EUR TWI January 2017 – September 2017, which prompted his comments that EUR performance required monitoring. Given the slew of comments from ECB officials last week, markets are probably expecting FX to be addressed by Draghi. The risks are that he sounds more sanguine. It also makes the up/downside of bearish EUR bets ahead of the ECB announcement especially attractive.

    * * *

    PREVIOUS MEETING: At the previous meeting, the ECB reiterated their existing guidance on asset purchases, upgraded 2017 through 2019 growth forecasts (2018 upgraded to 2.3% from 1.8%) with Draghi during his press conference stating that the ECB did not discuss a sudden end or an end date for asset purchases.

    ECB DECEMBER MINUTES: The key takeaway was the Bank announcing that forward guidance and the language surrounding their policy stance could be revisited in the early stages of this year. Furthermore, the minutes revealed that communication would need to change but without changing sequencing.

    SOURCE REPORTS: In the immediate aftermath of the December meeting, sources suggested that a minority of ECB Rate Setters wanted to signal guidance may change if inflation keeps accelerating but hawks were easily out-numbered and the debate was not heated. More recent source reports have suggested that the ECB are unlikely to drop the pledge this week to keep buying bonds until inflation heads towards target, with separate reports stating that the Governing Council are relatively relaxed about EUR appreciation; policy wording most likely changed in March.

    DATA: From a data perspective, RBC highlight that the growth picture has remained strong with Q3 GDP recently revised higher to 0.7% (Exp. 0.6%), with the real test for the ECB to come throughout the year given their mammoth 2018 growth upgrade from 1.8% to 2.3%. Further to growth prospects, December PMIs revealed growth in the manufacturing sector at an all-time high with services at the highest since 2011 with HSBC suggesting that EUR appreciation is yet to dent Eurozone exporters. On the inflation front, things are perhaps less upbeat with December core CPI stuck at 0.9% for the third consecutive month and the potential for EUR appreciation to cap upside in inflation in the coming months.

    CURRENT ECB FORWARD GUIDANCE (INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT)

    • RATES: We continue to expect them to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of our net asset purchases. (Dec 14th)
    • ASSET PURCHASES: From January 2018 we intend to continue to make net asset purchases under the asset purchase programme (APP), at a monthly pace of EUR 30bln, until the end of September 2018, or beyond, if necessary, and in any case until the Governing Council sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its inflation aim. If the outlook becomes less favourable, or if financial conditions become inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation, we stand ready to increase the APP in terms of size and/or duration. (Dec 14th)
    • GROWTH: Risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook remain broadly balanced. (Dec 14th)
    • INFLATION: The strong cyclical momentum and the significant reduction of economic slack give grounds for greater confidence that inflation will converge towards our inflation aim. At the same time, domestic price pressures remain muted overall and have yet to show convincing signs of a sustained upward trend. An ample degree of monetary stimulus therefore remains necessary for underlying inflation pressures to continue to build up and support headline inflation developments over the medium term. (Dec 14th)

    POTENTIAL ADJUSTMENTS TO ECB FORWARD GUIDANCE (INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT)

    • RATES: Guidance on rates is likely to be maintained with RBC highlighting that the most recent ECB minutes stressed that there will be no changes to the current wording on the sequencing of policy changes i.e. that rates will not be lifted until asset purchase have concluded. As such, focus on rates may well take a back seat this time round.
    • ASSET PURCHASES: Despite the December minutes release stating that guidance could be ‘revisited in the early stages of this year’, many feel that January is perhaps too early an opportunity for the Bank to unveil any major changes on this front with March seen as a more opportune time. HSBC state that a January adjustment is unlikely due to 1) disappointing inflation levels 2) the ECB will wish to avoid an ‘unwarranted tightening of monetary policy conditions. However, Pictet suggest that this meeting could see the removal of the ‘in terms of size’ option from their guidance.
    • GROWTH: Unlikely to see much in the way of changes this time round with Pictet looking for current guidance to eventually change to ‘upside risks to the euro area growth outlook are building’ if the 2018 growth picture develops as expected.
    • INFLATION: In-fitting with recent data releases, ING look for Draghi to maintain his existing dovish tone on inflation, pointing to still weak inflationary pressures whilst emphasising the disinflationary impact from the stronger EUR. However, UBS note that Draghi will most likely have to pay some acknowledgement to the recent climb in oil prices (currently 12% above ECB 2018 assumptions) and the potential impact on CPI going forward.

    WHAT TO WATCH OUT FOR

    • DISCUSSIONS ON THE FUTURE OF THE PSPP: As discussed above, any changes to guidance in the Bank’s statement are likely to come at a later date or be minor at this stage. As such, a bulk of the focus instead will be on what/if any hints Draghi delivers on discussions about concluding the PSPP. Last time round, Draghi tried to downplay that such discussions took place and will most likely try and do the same this week in order to avert a tightening of monetary conditions. However, Draghi will have a tough time batting away questions from journalists given the December minutes which could see the ECB President pressed on the timing and scope of changes in guidance. HSBC highlight that at the October meeting, ‘Draghi had said that QE would not have stopped suddenly, but at the December one he refused to answer a similar question’. Therefore, any follow up to this will be closely watched by markets in an attempt to assess how much sway/if any the hawks are having on the debate at the Bank with recent rhetoric from uber-hawk Hansson continuing to bang the drum for a sudden conclusion to purchases. That said, ultimately, Morgan Stanley don’t expect any major shift in guidance until March (alongside ECB staff projections) with a clear statement on the timing of purchases not expected until June. Note: markets will also be on the lookout for source reports in the aftermath of the press conference if some of the hawks view Draghi’s communications as too dovish or not representative of the discussions that took place.
    • EUR EXCHANGE RATE: Another source of focus has been on recent EUR appreciation which has subsequently lead some of the bloc’s central bank heads to come out and comment on the matter. More specifically, the likes of Nowotny and Villeroy have suggested that the exchange rate must be monitored with Constancio adding that concern will only arise if movements in the EUR do not reflect market fundamentals. These comments were then followed up by source reports late last week suggesting that overall the ECB are relaxed about EUR appreciation. As such, the issue may not make it into the introductory statement but will likely be a topic of discussion in the Q&A (it is a rarity for the ECB to discuss the exchange rate in their introductory statement, additionally Draghi has often rebuffed questions on the matter by stating that the ECB does not target the exchange rate). If quizzed about the matter, Berenberg argue that Draghi is unlikely to raise too much alarm at this stage due to 1) the EUR only being 1.2% stronger than the rate used in December 2017 and 2) ECB calculations have shown that a stronger euro does not weigh on the Eurozone economy as much as in the past. Note, that if Draghi was to insert a comment on the EUR exchange rate into the statement, previous communication in September stated ‘the recent volatility in the exchange rate represents a source of uncertainty which requires monitoring with regard to its possible implications for the medium-term outlook for price stability’.
    • COMPOSITION OF PURCHASES: Another issue that Draghi could be quizzed on or feel the need to comment on is this year’s composition of purchases with the Bank yet to clarify the breakdown of purchases throughout the year. Berenberg highlight that based on purchase data this year, ‘data for January so far suggests that the cut in the purchase programme has fallen largely, if not completely on sovereign bonds –if one were to extrapolate the weekly data to the whole month, from currently EUR 50bln monthly down to EUR 20bln in 2018, with EUR 10bln monthly for the sum of corporate bonds, covered bonds and ABS.’ Therefore, journalists may chose to press the President on this issue to see if it is representative of the Bank’s purchases going forward.

    MARKET REACTION

    As ever with the ECB, markets can see multiple waves of reactions throughout the decision and press conference. As discussed above, two of the key factors for markets to look at are the future path of the PSPP and the Euro exchange rate. If Draghi avoids any mention of or bats away questions about the Bank’s intentions for curtailing purchases later in the year (possibly allied with a cautious tone on the Eurozone’s inflation prospects), markets could interpret this as a dovish factor and subsequently could lead to selling pressure in the EUR, with strength in fixed income markets and equities. Conversely, if Draghi tackles the issue head on and hints that announcements will come in March or that the hawks are having an increasing sway on the future path of policy at the bank, then the opposite reaction could be seen. If Draghi attempts to talk down the currency then this could naturally lead to some selling pressure in EUR (however, this will be subject to the broader tone of Draghi’s statement as his efforts to talk down the currency in September failed after he was simultaneously upbeat on inflation). Finally, as a reminder, watch out for source comments in the hours following the press conference.

    WHAT THE BANKS ARE SAYING

    • BARCLAYS: We do not expect any change in policy but we’ll scrutinize President Draghi’s comments on recent market developments and on the GC’s discussions regarding possible upcoming changes to the forward guidance, which we expect to happen at the April meeting.
    • HSBC: The minutes of the December ECB meeting noted that language on the policy stance and forward guidance would be “revisited” in early 2018, raising the question of whether this could be as early as 25 January. With the news on growth since December again surprising to the upside and the latest oil price rise helping lift near-term headline inflation, Mr Draghi has come under increasing pressure to start preparing markets for the imminent end of QE. However, underlying inflation remains sluggish and the euro has appreciated. With the ECB still concerned that inflation may not return to target in a sustainable manner, we expect no change in policy or language in January, although the meeting is clearly going to be more exciting than previously expected.
    • ING: We stick to our previous view that the ECB will not stop QE in September but will rather decide on another “lower for longer” beyond September, probably until the end of the year. Given that even the hawks are currently emphasising sequencing, a first rate hike will not be on the cards before mid-2019. Interestingly, the ECB has picked up the narrative from Draghi’s Sintra speech and is more and more focusing on growth, considering inflation only as a derivative of growth developments. For next week’s meeting, we expect Draghi to convey a rather dovish message, pointing to still weak inflationary pressure and also emphasizing the disinflationary impact from a stronger euro. The most important message to watch will be whether Draghi confirms the October statement that there will be no sudden end to QE. We expect him to do so as this would be the only way to – at least – temporarily get the genie back in the bottle. It would also show Draghi’s magic of how to guide financial markets with very few words and without any action.
    • MORGAN STANLEY: This week’s press conference will likely deliver a balanced message. The forward guidance will evolve, but gradually. We expect the next change in March. We see no more QE from October this year and the depo rate rising in March 2019. Waiting for the signal: The first monetary policy meeting of 2018 is likely to be scrutinised closely by market participants for clues on when the central bank’s forward guidance will change once again – and how. This will likely happen in March, when we project inflation to start rising again and the new ECB staff projections are likely to show higher inflation. A more clear-cut indication that QE will end from October as we forecast is likely to come in June, we think. Language evolution: We doubt that the Governing Council has already decided how to communicate the next policy shift to the market. Apart from the tone and content of future press conferences and speeches/interviews, we see two possibilities. The first one is to make the QE easing bias more symmetric, by saying that the ECB stands ready to increase the horizon of the asset purchases if needed, but dropping any reference to a potential increase of their monthly size once again. A second way, perhaps after this step, is to make the programme closed-ended, by no longer saying that it could buy beyond September. The exit sequence: Once QE comes to an end, the central bank – towards the end of this year – will probably change the forward guidance on rates too, and indicate that the depo rate will move some time after the net asset purchases are discontinued, rather than a long time after. We expect the first 15bp depo rate hike to -0.25% in March 2019. The market has more or less converged to this long-standing view of ours, and we now believe that the timing of the first hike is ‘correctly’ priced.
    • NOMURA: We are not expecting too much new information to emerge from next week’s ECB policy board meeting. The minutes from the December meeting surprised market participants in suggesting the Council plans to revisit the asymmetric nature of the forward guidance on QE early this year, sooner than was previously assumed. However, we think it more likely that the QE bias will be removed at the March meeting when the ECB will release its macroeconomic projections. Meanwhile, with recent inflation data subdued and a still high level of uncertainty about how tighter financial conditions might affect the economic outlook, we doubt whether the ECB will deliver further hawkish communications at present. Still, on a multi-month horizon we believe the region’s pace of growth and the level of inflation will surprise the ECB on the upside. And that will pave the way for a signal in the middle of the year that the APP will not continue beyond September. We believe that will then pave the way for some softening of the forward guidance on interest rates in Q3 and then a 10bp depo rate hike by the end of the year.
    • NORDEA: The ECB is unlikely to change its guidance next week. We see some downside potential for the EUR and bond yields. The start of the year has been characterized by a lot of speculation that the ECB was about to turn towards a less dovish stance. The speculation only increased after minutes from the December meeting suggested the language pertaining to various dimensions of the monetary policy stance and forward guidance could be revisited early in the coming year (i.e. this year). We interpret the message from the minutes very differently compared to the reaction in financial markets. The ECB has long talked about the need for its communication to change gradually. There was ample discussion on changing the forward guidance already last summer, while some Governing Council members pushed for changing the guidance further already in October (the reference to lower rates in the forward guidance was dropped last June).
    • RBC: We don’t expect the ECB to announce any major changes at its first meeting of 2018. That is despite the account of its December meeting saying that the ECB would make changes to its forward guidance ‘in coming months’. However, as we set out in our preview note, changes to the language are coming even if it’s difficult to pinpoint when. With the euro area economy humming along nicely and the threat of deflation having passed, the easing bias implied by elements of the current language seems increasingly obsolete. But, one crucial line in the accounts was that changes to the guidance would include what is currently said on the sequencing of policy changes. For that reason, we restate our current ECB call; we expect QE to continue to September as currently planned with a short taper of three months then taking purchases to the end of 2018 and rate rises coming only ‘well’ after that point, we think in Q3 2019.
    • TD SECURITIES: We look for the ECB to keep its 12:45pm press release unchanged, despite the growing speculation that it could start changing the language as soon as this meeting. However, we don’t think that we’ve seen enough progress on inflation to justify a change. If we do see a change in March, we think that it will be in the reaction function rather than in the language that ties QE to inflation, and almost certainly not in the sequencing or reinvestment plans. For the January meeting, we look for Draghi to push back against EUR strength in the press conference, but think that it would take more EUR appreciation than what we’ve seen so far for the ECB to go as far as adding more EUR language into the opening statement.
    • UBS: Bullish macro data, the recent hawkishly-perceived ECB minutes, an appreciating Euro, and higher yields and oil prices promise to make next week’s ECB meeting more interesting than previously anticipated. Indications are growing that the ECB will soon start to shift the focus of its communication away from QE and towards interest rates (forward guidance) as the key instrument to support the inflation recovery; this would also imply that the QE easing bias is becoming less important. While the focus on interest rate forward guidance is thus likely to increase, this in itself does not mean, in our view, that the first depo rate hike should be expected earlier than previously assumed – we still expect it for July 2019. Obviously, if the data were to remain strong, the ECB might eventually start hiking earlier, but this is not a decision it has to make soon – it can wait for another few quarters and then decide in a data-dependent way. Our monetary policy call is essentially unchanged: we expect the ECB to conduct monthly asset purchases of €30bn until September 2018, but then wind down QE. In light of very strong data, a final moderate extension of QE in Q4 2018 seems very unlikely by now. As before, we expect key interest rates to be hiked only after the end of QE, most likely as of July 2019; but we acknowledge that a continuation of very strong data could skew the risk towards a somewhat earlier rate hike.

  • Global Crisis Events: The Weird Keeps Getting Weirder

    Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

    While the mainstream media and general public tend to assume that every new day is bringing us closer to a better future, many alternative analysts focus on the underlying weirdness of our world and all of the crisis factors that average people don’t want to think about. I have to say, in my view the “weirdness” has been escalating rather swiftly lately, and I don’t think that very many analysts, alternative or mainstream, appreciate the potential consequences.

     

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    The most important issue of course has always been the global economy. With nearly every sector of our system resting on massively inflated financial bubbles driven by central bank fiat printing and artificially low interest rates, there is only one question that really needs to be asked: How long before a geopolitical or economic shock event takes down the entire house of cards?

    The mainstream philosophy seems to be that the economy is now impervious to such events. As the media now argues often, stock markets in particular do not appear to care whenever international threats present themselves. I would argue that this is because nothing substantial has actually happened quite yet. We have had a steady build-up of domestic and global political tensions, but the markets have so far been presented with a world that is comfortably predictable. It is a dangerous world with numerous potential pitfalls, but still predictable nonetheless.

    And this is the very odd position we find ourselves in. A system which grows progressively more unstable year by year, and a society that has grown ignorantly used to it. To wake people up to the threats ahead would require a surprise, a slap to the face, something entirely unexpected.

    Here are a few developing powder kegs around the world that may present such a shock.

    U.S. Debt Ceiling And The Government Shutdown Battle

    I think a lot of people are missing some major points on the government shutdown situation. First, consider this — every new deal to keep the federal government funded offers a shorter stopgap than the last. The latest deal would only keep funding in place for three more weeks, then the same conflict over budget and spending initiatives happens all over again. It is not outlandish to expect that one day soon we will be faced with weekly or bi-weekly funding battles in D.C., while the greater problem of the U.S. debt ceiling is generally ignored.

    You see, the “fight” within the federal government is not so much over whether or not more debt is a “bad thing.” In fact, both sides support more debt and bigger government. Instead, the fight is over the allocation of funds (debt) to certain projects and away from others. Who gets the money? And how can a government shutdown be used as leverage to gain the upper hand politically?

    The thing is, this is all theater. There are no “sides” to the debate in Washington, and there is no battle. This is all designed to condition the American public into believing that the two parties are separate and opposed when they are in fact not. Beyond that, the shutdown battle also achieves a certain stress factor for the economy that many people are not aware of.

    Among alternative analysts, cynicism runs rampant over a government shutdown. “Who cares?!” many of them will say, “Let it shut down!” But there are some concerns here, primarily the concern of full faith in U.S. debt issuance.

    While I am all for the notion of the federal government going the way of the Dodo bird, I do not think many alternative analysts are considering the trade-off required when the system does in fact “reset.” For example, while the U.S. Treasury is supposed to remain functional during a government shutdown and certainly remains functional during stop gaps and debates over funding, this internal conflict though theatrical in nature can still produce a lack of faith in Treasury bonds and the dollar internationally. And frankly, faith is all that our economy has left to sustain itself.

    If the funding battle continues with ever shorter stop gaps or with an extended period of government shutdown, there is a possibility that the largest foreign investors in U.S. debt and the dollar will begin dumping their holdings. When this is done, it will be done quietly and will be fully denied if questions arise. If China, for example, begins decoupling from U.S. debt, we will not find out until it is far too late. The Chinese would seek to be the first to dump their holding in order to avoid a vast international rush for the exits. They would want to be the first to sell, not the last.

    Again, if the funding fight continues to become more aggressive and more absurd, eventually we will see a foreign dump of U.S. debt, and with it an unprecedented crisis. Whether or not this “needs” to happen is not what I am debating here, only that when it does happen, there will be consequences for us all, and being prepared for them is essential.

    Syria Back On The Table

    So, if you thought the Syrian situation could not get any weirder, the past week might have been a surprise.

    The last major development was Vladimir Putin’s orders to pull a large percentage of standing Russian troops from the region, leaving the Assad government particularly vulnerable. This move did not surprise me in the least. In fact, I predicted that Russia would step aside in Syria in interviews last year.   I also wrote about the possible problems this would cause in my article ‘A Review Of The Most Disturbing Events Of 2017’. One of these problems would be Putin leaving the door wide open for a foreign force to invade Syria, drawing in other nations like Iran or Lebanon into the fight and expanding the war tenfold.

    What did surprise me, though, was the brazen launch of forces into the region by Turkey in particular. Erdogen has been pecking away at Kurdish tribes in Syria for quite some time, but his latest measures are something entirely new. Keep in mind that Turkey is still technically a NATO member and an ally of the U.S., despite Erdogen’s anti-NATO rhetoric and threats to leave the multi-nation defense pact. Also keep in mind that the U.S. government is giving monetary and weapons support to the Kurds. So, to clarify, a U.S. ally is ignoring the tense situation in Syria and the possibility of triggering a wider regional war to hunt and destroy another U.S. ally, all while Saudi Arabia, Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Russia, etc., hover on the periphery waiting to jump into the fray.

    This is not a recipe for diplomatic discourse. This is a recipe for disaster.  Will Syria lead to WWIII as some people suggest?  Probably not in the way most of them imagine.  War takes many forms, including sporadic region by region conflicts, as well as economic conflicts.  Global nuclear war is unlikely considering such an event would virtually vaporize decades of investment by the elitist establishment in control grids around the world.  But, constant regional combat and financial disasters? THAT is a strategy that benefits them greatly.

    North Korea And The Olympic-Sized Target

    First let me say that the very fact that South Korea and the Olympic committee feels compelled to continue the games in the region at a time of such heightened tensions is extremely odd to me.  The notion may simply be that the games will “heal” divisions in the Korean peninsula.  I am not so sure about that…

    I recently wrote about the North Korean war scenario and the potential false flag event during the Olympics in my article ‘Olympic Games In South Korea – Perfect Opportunity For A False Flag Attack?’. I would add to my analysis another interesting development; the negative response by South Koreans to the North’s participation in the Olympic games.

    I have continually had to remind people that a war in North Korea would be the most effective trigger event for economic downturn and global distraction, though some skeptics seem to think the situation is going nowhere. Yet, all the elements are now present, including an array of naval forces ready for kinetic response, the escalation of North Korea’s missile technology to include ICBMs capable of striking the U.S. mainland, the war rhetoric grows on both sides, with the Department of Defense being the most aggressive, and now even the South Korean citizenry seems to be shunning diplomacy as they burn photos of Kim Jong Un during Olympic processions and demand a stop to cooperation with the North during the games.

    This is a rather sharp break from the mainstream narrative in the U.S., which has told us that South Koreans are seeking generally passive and diplomatic relations with the North, and that the US involvement is universally unwanted.  That is to say, the desire for conflict is not limited to U.S. warhawks and North Korean “fanatics,” it is also a large portion of the South Korean population that appears to prefer less-than peaceful solutions.

    Add to this the latest CIA claims that North Korea’s nuclear weapons technology will be a full threat to the U.S. in a matter of months, and the news that North Korea’s armies are confiscating food stores from the citizenry at a greater rate than usual, and anyone with any sense can see what is developing here.  CIA director Mike Pompeo has asserted that the Trump Administration will act to prevent North Korea from developing an arsenal of ICBMs capable of striking the U.S.

    I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: This is going to end in war. There is no way around it.

    The U.S. Dollar Continues Its Rapid Decline

    I outlined this interesting development a couple weeks ago in my article ‘The Strange Case Of The Falling Dollar – And What It Means For Gold’, and so far it seems that the downward spiral of the dollar is continuing, now falling at a speed not seen since 2003.

    This trend is very strange for a number of reasons – the most prominent being the fact that the dollar index is ignoring policy moves by the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates and reduce its balance sheet.  Under normal economic conditions, this should trigger a dollar spike, not a dollar collapse.  I predict that the Fed, under “new leadership” through Jerome Powell, will pursue highly aggressive fiscal tightening measures in 2018, including expanded interest rate hikes in the name of tempering the dollar’s decline.

    If this takes place, the insane stock market bubble now in full steroid mode will feel a sudden swift kick to the nether regions.  However, such a move may still not stop the dollar’s decline.  This could be the first stage of the stagflationary crisis I and a few other alternative analysts have been warning about for years.

    Growing Accustomed To The Weird

    I think if you asked most people if they would have believed the developments of today were possible 5 to 10 years ago, they would say no. The danger is that when a society becomes too accustomed to instability and conflict, they become complacent in terms of their own security and their own freedoms. They might not even notice until it is too late that both necessities have been stolen away from them.

    That great global slap in the face is coming, make no mistake, but the question is, can we prepare enough people for it in time to make a difference in the outcome? Reporting on these issues is often compared to “doom and gloom,” but really, it is an act of optimism. I and many other analysts are operating on the assumption that we can tip the balance by informing the public and creating a shield against calamity. Maybe this is a foolish assumption, maybe not. We shall see in due course.

  • DOJ Has Reportedly Started Recovering Missing Strzok-Page Texts

    The Department of Justice (DOJ) is in the process of recovering five months worth of missing text messages between two FBI employees accused of bias in their investigations of both Hillary Clinton and President Trump, according to Fox News.

    On Tuesday, President Trump tweeted “Where are the 50,000 important text messages between FBI lovers Lisa Page and Peter Strzok? Blaming Samsung!” in reference to the fact that the DOJ blamed the five-month missing text gap on technical difficulties. 

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    The missing texts – which span the period of December 14, 2016 to May 17, 2017, were reported to Congressional investigators last Friday in a cover letter accompanying a 384-page document delivery, igniting a firestorm of speculation that the contents of the communications between the two Trump-hating FBI investigators was particularly damning. The two agents had previously discussed an “insurance policy” before the election in the event of a Trump win.

    And now this from Hannity – word that the five months of missing texts, which are apparently in the process of being successfully recovered. 

    Sources are exclusively telling me tonight, multiple sources, that the Department of Justice is as we speak in the process of successfully recovering many of those text messages in that five month period of time from the Trump-hating FBI officials Peter Strzok and Lisa Page.

    The DOJ is also trying to track down their mobile phones. This is huge because those texts are during that critical time during the so-called Russia investigation. 

    Here’s a big question tonight: was the deputy FBI director, Andrew McCabe cell phone impacted by this so-called glitch? McCabe, he was Lisa Page’s boss, and both she and Strzok talked about “the insurance policy in Andy’s office,” we believe that was McCabe.

    The Fox News anchor also notes that former FBI Director James Comey may be in hot water over leaking a memo he says he wrote containing his concerns over President Trump pressuring him to go easy on former National Security Advisor Mike Flynn. 

    Also brand new tonight we have new revelations about one of the lawyers that is now representing disgraced former FBI director, soon to be probably investigated, national embarrassment James Comey. According to Buzzfeed, one of Comey’s attorneys turns out as his Columbia law professor buddy – the guy he leaked the memo to to the New York Times because he wanted a special counsel appointed, which turned out to be “oh, Comey’s other BFF Robert Mueller” You can’t make this up in a spy novel! 

    It’s one giant incestuous circle of corruption. And we have even more proof; James Comey testified that he gave his classified memos To Robert Mueller. And according to the reports, special counsel interviewed Comey about his memos last year. By the way, they also collaborated before he testified. Those memos contain classified information. They were created on government computers, so Comey broke the law by removing them from the FBI, but it’s clear that Mueller didn’t care about any of that. 

    Mueller’s main focus is, has been, and continues to be carrying out a witch-hunt to unseat a duly elected President of the Untied States – President Trump. It’s ridiculous and it’s an abomination to our constitution and the rule of law. 

    To recap: right before the election, Strzok and Page texted about an “insurance policy” against Donald Trump becoming President. 

    I want to believe the path you threw out for consideration in Andy’s office – that there’s no way he [Trump] gets elected – but I’m afraid we can’t take that risk.” writes FBI counterintelligence officer Peter Strzok to FBI lawyer Lisa Page, with whom he was having an extramarital affair while spearheading both the Clinton email inquiry and the early Trump-Russia probe, adding “It’s like a life insurance policy in the unlikely event you die before you’re 40.” 

    Seeming to support the theory that the Trump-Russia investigation is the “insurance policy,” text messages released last Monday make reference to a “secret society” of FBI and DOJ officials who held clandestine meetings “offsite” in order to solidify their plot to take down President Trump – while a whistleblower has allegedly confirmed this to GOP Congressional investigators. 

    If the five months of missing text messages are recovered in their entirety, it should shed valuable light on the mechanics of both the “insurance policy” and the “secret society” formed to effectuate it. 

  • Ken Rogoff Warns "China Will Be At The Center Of The Next Global Financial Crisis"

    Having warned in Davos today that:

    “If interest rates go up even modestly, halfway to their normal level, you will see a collapse in the stock market,”

     “I don’t know how everything from art and bitcoin to stock prices will react as interest rates go up.”

    Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Public Policy at Harvard University, explains to Finanz Und Wirtschaft’s Christoph Gisiger why the long economic slump is finally over and what the biggest risks for the future are.

    Few people know as much about financial crises as Kenneth Rogoff. Together with his colleague Carmen Reinhart, the highly influential professor at Harvard University is the author of «This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly», one of the most important studies on the financial crisis of 2008 and its impact on the economy and society. So what’s the big lesson nearly ten years after the traumatic fall of the investment bank Lehman Brothers? In which way was this crisis different than other big shocks in the history of finance? Und most importantly: What’s next for the global economy?

     

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    Professor Rogoff, since the outbreak of the financial crisis nearly ten years have passed. How do grade this recovery when you look at other big busts in the history of finance?
    In my research with Carmen Reinhart we found that after a deep systemic financial crisis, it often takes the economy eight to ten years to recover. Now, it’s been a decade and I think we are in a recovery period where we are going to get some reversion to mean in terms of productivity growth and other things. That means we are going to get above average productivity growth and rising investments for several years as the economy normalizes.

    That sounds encouraging. Is this long period of anemic growth finally behind us?
    I feel that the OECD and the IMF are going to be marking up their global growth forecast most of the time in the next few years. They have been marking down their forecasts for nine years in a row. For example, the IMF marked its global growth forecast 27 times in a row down and this October was the first time they raised their outlook.

    What’s the most important thing to watch now?
    The single most important thing is that investment continues to pick up. Seeing some recovery in investment would support the idea that there is more life in the recovery. There has been a deep, long lasting dip in global investment. That’s a big part of the explanation why interest rates are so low. So the most important question is whether the recent pick up in investment will continue.

    In the US, the last recession ended nearly nine years ago. Aren’t we already in the late stage of this economic cycle?
    I think that’s nonsense. A financial crisis has a very unusual recovery. So you can’t just count years and compare it to a typical recession. Also, if we had a recession right now it would be a much more normal recession. In any given year, there is a probability of around 15% for a recession and there is no reason to suppose that the odds are greater than 15% today. On the contrary: There is a very good chance that growth outperforms most of the time the next few years.

    So is there nothing that was different with this financial crisis?
    No, it fit right in. Financial crises leave such distinctive footprints in the data that you see very similar characteristics across time. In many ways, this was a garden variety of a systemic financial crisis: The way it happened, focused on the housing market, and the very slow recovery. In many quantitative benchmarks this financial crisis was very normal compared to other deep systemic financial crises. But if there was something different it was the European debt crisis. It was another whole layer on top of the financial crisis.

    What do you mean by that?
    This was absolutely the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression when some countries experienced very bad crises. In this context, the very slow recoveries in Europe are significant. For instance, the Greek financial crisis ranks comfortably in the top 15 worst financial crises during the last hundred years. Greece’s experience was as bad as anything anyone experienced in the Great Depression. Also, the crisis that Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland experienced fit into the hundred biggest financial crises on record. On the other hand, it’s important to note that these countries are very wealthy compared to where the world was in the 1920s and 1930s. So even these financial crises were very severe, they took place on a much higher wealth level. What’ more, all in all this time they were handled better.

    A big part of the response to the financial crisis were the bailouts of big banks like Citigroup, Royal Bank of Scotland or UBS. How healthy is the financial system today?
    In most countries the banking system is pretty sound today. But then again, the level of regulation has tightened up so much that banks are not making loans as easily as they did. That makes it hard for medium and small businesses to get loans as easily as they did in the past. So the banking system is healthy in the sense that it’s less fragile than it was in 2007. But it’s less healthy in terms of being able to fund growth. Therefore, we need to improve the regulation of banks. In this respect, I like the ideas of Stanford Professor Anat Admati, and her German co-author Martin Hellwig who advocate having a much simpler regulation for banks but requiring more equity financing. I think that’s an extremely good idea and it would be much better than the way we’re doing things right now.

    Does that mean we don’t have to worry anymore of another financial crisis?
    Of course, there are still issues with the Eurozone. But the only country which is sort of in a different place in the cycle and which is important is China. China is probably the place most at risk of having a significant downturn in the near term. It’s certainly the leading candidate for being at the center of the next big financial crisis.

    Why does China concern you so much?
    I have great respect for the Chinese authorities and they are working very hard to not have a financial crisis. Also, it will be different because there is no truly private company in China. So government guarantees are triggered much more quickly than they are in the western economy. Nevertheless, I still think that’s the most fragile large region in the world at the moment. The big problem is that the Chinese economy is still very imbalanced, relying much too heavily on investment and exports. In addition to that, China is very credit dependent. So if China were to run into financial difficulties or just experience a slowdown in the rate of credit growth that could produce a lot of problems. And if China were to run into its own kind of financial crisis it would probably produce a growth crisis which could produce a political crisis.

    But high levels of debt are not only a problem in China. Today, the debt levels in most western countries are even higher than at the eve of the financial crisis.
    The debt levels are very high, but we also have phenomenally low interest rates. So the debt levels are highly sustainable if interest rates stay this low. I’m talking about real interest rates, inflation adjusted interest rates. And the likelihood is that they will stay very low for a long time. That’s what the markets are predicting. So if real interest rates stay very low, I don’t think there is any near-term vulnerability outside of China.

    Why are interest rates still so low?
    Economists don’t fully understand why interest rates have fallen as far as they have. We have lots of papers, lots of studies on it. But there is a large part we don’t know. For example, let’s suppose the United States and Europe, meaning Germany, France and northern Europe, started growing much faster. That could raise global interest rates. In this case, what could happen to countries like Italy if they didn’t grow as fast as the rest of the world? In such an environment we could certainly see big debt problems in countries like Italy. That’s a classic debt crisis pattern like in the 1980s when Latin America ran into trouble. It happened because the rich world was growing very fast and the highly indebted Latin American countries suddenly couldn’t meet their payments. But at the moment, Italy doesn’t have such problems because interest rates are so low. So no one cares.

    There’s also a lot of complacency among investors at the stock market. How imminent is the risk of a correction with equity valuations as rich as they are today?
    Most of it is interest rates being so low. You can do some simple calculations that suggest the low level of interest rates explains a large part of the high stock market valuation. The stock market is vulnerable to having real interest rates go up. But I don’t think it’s an exceptionally high risk right now. The stock market is high for the same reason debt is high which is that interest rates in many ways are at record lows compared to free market areas. We also had very low interest rates in other periods like in the 1950s and in the 1960s. But at that time, there was tremendous financial repression and control of the markets by governments. That’s much less true today.

    Then again, since the financial crisis central banks intervene heavily in the markets with policies like negative interest rates and bond buying programs like QE. Now, they want to unwind these measures. Will that go well?
    Central banks aren’t to blame for low interest rates. This is a case of global real factors that affect investment and savings which have led to these very low interest rates. Also, quantitative easing in the United States is smoke and mirrors. It’s almost meaningless. The first round of quantitative easing where the Federal Reserve was buying car loans and all sorts of private debt was significant because that’s a fiscal transfer. But simply buying treasury bonds is smoke and mirrors because it’s just the Treasury owing money to the Fed. So it’s absolutely an illusion and I don’t think it matters when they change it either.

    What do you expect from incoming Fed chief Jerome Powell?
    I wouldn’t expect any major changes at the Federal Reserve. Janet Yellen would have done what Jay Powell will try to do. I talked to him many times over the years and even though he’s a lawyer he really has excellent command of economic and regulatory issues. I think he’s a perfectly fine appointment, especially given that there are so many economists already on the board of the Fed. But it’s also a fact that President Trump would like to keep interest rates very low. He doesn’t want anyone to ruin his «beautiful» stock market. So the real question will be, what happens when inflation rises and the Fed feels a lot of pressure to raise rates. Will suddenly President Trump start treating Mr. Powell the way he’s treating Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, constantly undermining him? I think that would be very bad institutionally and I’m very concerned about that risk.

    And what about monetary policy in Europe?
    The biggest challenge facing the ECB is that quantitative easing in the Eurozone is not the same as in the United States. It’s basically a subsidy from the northern countries to the southern countries. Places like Spain, Portugal and Italy have received massive loans from Germany and France under the table through the ECB. If the ECB changes its quantitative easing, Europe is going to need some vehicle to substitute QE and support these countries, maybe some form of an Eurobond or something. So it’s going to be quite a challenge if quantitative easing stops in the Eurozone.

    Also, in many parts of Europe interest rates are still negative. Will that leave permanent damages to the economy?
    I think that’s nonsense. There isn’t any particular evidence that negative interest rates are leading to permanent damages or that the risk of a crisis are higher. But eventually, we’re going to have another deep recession or financial crisis. Not tomorrow, not soon I hope, but it’s going to happen. And if countries don’t prepare for it it’s going to be much worse than the last time because interest rates are already near zero, quantitative easing is ineffective and helicopter money is a silly idea. That’s why I think that in the future we will see the major central banks and Treasuries of the world all prepare for having much deeper negative interest rates the next time we have a financial crisis. It’s a much, much more elegant solution than anything that’s been proposed. So I think many countries will prepare for negative interest rates and I would say within the next decade it will be in every central bank’s tool kit.

    How will these preparations look like?
    Right now, central banks are very limited because if you set interest rates too negative big players will hoard cash. But it’s not very hard to do: Without getting into the weeds, the core of it is that physical currencies are becoming increasingly unimportant in the real economy. Cash is not disappearing, and I only advocate a cash lite society not cashless society. But as cash becomes less important in the legal economy, the different measures that you need to take, ranging from eliminating large bills to potentially taxing deposits into the financial system become very easy to do. You’re also having an effect on tax evasion which is not really affecting normal people. And by the way, for all these ideas, you can exclude small savers with no particular difficulty.

    But already today, people can circumvent such measures with cryptocurrencies.
    But if we interpret cryptocurrency to be anonymous or nearly anonymous currencies, governments can’t allow that on a large scale. If you look at the history of coinage and paper currency, the private sector invented everything at different times at different places. But the government eventually regulates and appropriates. That’s going to happen here, too. Governments have taken a deliberately hands-off attitude, thinking that the benefits of the innovation outweigh the risks and that the risks are not systemic. But as cryptocurrencies make it easier for tax evasion, crime and corruption to take place around the world, anti-money-laundering laws are going to have to step in and shut them down. That’s coming. There is no doubt about it.

    So what’s going to happen with Bitcoin?
    Bitcoin is a classic bubble. There are things in the technology that are valuable. But Bitcoin is more likely to be worth $10 than $10’000 in a decade. It’s very likely that it will get regulated and regulations will eventually undercut it. Even in the best-case scenario Bitcoin will probably be like MySpace. Remember that before Facebook? When they were first in but eventually a better competitor came along? When the private currency gets too big then the government has to do something and that’s the case here. You can have blockchain currencies that are not anonymous. That’s a different matter. They will live forever. But those are not the cryptocurrencies where all the speculation is taking place.

  • Congressional Republicans Are Escalating Their Feud With The FBI

    The GOP’s feud with the FBI is escalating to absurd new heights, Politico reported.

    As Special Counsel Robert Mueller pivots his investigation to focus on whether President Donald Trump committed obstruction of justice after finding no “there” there during his probe into possible collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia, the GOP is pushing back against political bias in the FBI, triggering outrage among Congressional Democrats. 

    Politico pointed out that Tuesday brought several dramatic developments in the ongoing investigative saga.

    The New York Times reported that Mueller had recently emailed Attorney General Jeff Sessions, and last year interviewed FBI Director James Comey.

    Meanwhile, Rep. Bob Goodlatte, chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, accused FBI agents of engaging in a “conspiracy” to support Clinton and damage Trump, hinting that some of this behavior could’ve itself been criminal. Goodlatte took aim at a text messages between FBI Special Agent Peter Strzok and and FBI lawyer Lisa Page, with whom he was having an affair.

     

    Goodlatte

    Goodlatte

    Not all of the text messages have been released, but they are slowly being turned over the Congress in batches. Though the bureau recently confessed that it had lost 50,000 messages sent between the two FBI employees during a five-month period in 2016. The FBI has blamed the erasure on Samsung. The DOJ has launched a probe into the missing messages, but some Republicans, including House Freedom Caucus chief Mark Meadows, have revived calls for a second special counsel to investigate the FBI.

    “Some of these texts are very disturbing,” Goodlatte said, adding, “they illustrate a conspiracy on the part of some people, and we want to know a lot more about that.”

    As we reported earlier today, some of the texts that have been turned over suggested that in the “immediate aftermath” of the election, a “secret society of folks” within the DOJ and FBI came together to try to undermine President Trump.

    Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson called the text messages “jaw dropping.”

    But views on the FBI’s purported misconduct, unsurprisingly, diverge along partisan lines, as the Hill points out. Democrats have painted investigations of the FBI’s conduct by the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee and the House Intelligence, Oversight and Government Reform, and Judiciary committees as efforts to discredit Mueller and the Department of Justice.

    Democrats and the FBI have joined together in criticizing Congressional Republicans, who have so far refused to release a memo detailing what some Congressmen have described as a coordinated effort by the Obama administration to monitor members of the Trump campaign. Some conservatives have also joined in the chorus of people demanding the memo be released. But the lawmakers have so far denied a copy to everybody who’s asked – including the FBI.

    Republican Trey Gowdy, chairman of the House Oversight and Government reform committee, said this refusal is justified because the memo’s contents were gleaned from documents turned over by the FBI, according to Fox News.

    “To say we want to see your memo when for months and months they haven’t let us see lots of stuff we wanted to see — the memo came from what you gave us, FBI,” Gowdy told Fox News. “There is nothing new in there other than what you gave us and you showed us.”

    For what it’s worth, some Republicans are still willing to give the bureau the benefit of the doubt, particularly regarding the lost text messages.

    Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Richard Burr (R-N.C.), whose panel is also investigating Russia’s election interference, told CNN Tuesday that the FBI had been cooperative in providing documents to Congress.

    “I’m not going to read anything into it other than it may be a technical glitch at the bureau,” Senate Intel Committee Chairman Richard Burr told the Hill. “The fact that they have provided the rest of them certainly doesn’t show an intent to try to withhold anything.”

    President Trump has been somewhat less forgiving…

     

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

     

    The pressure on the FBI has made even Trump allies nervous. Last night, Axios reported that Christopher Wray, Trump’s pick to lead the bureau, threatened to resign amid pressure from Trump and Sessions to fire Andrew McCabe, deputy director of the bureau and a close Clinton ally whose wife received money from the Clinton machine during a recent campaign for office.

    After spending hours of closed-door Congressional testimony last month, McCabe announced that he would resign early this year.

    Gowdy, who spearheaded questioning of McCabe, told reporters that his testimony contained “numerous conflicts.”

    But regardless of what Congress does – or how much questionable behavior their investigations into the FBI uncover – without a special counsel, Mueller will continue to have the upper hand. After all, Mueller has the power to call a grand jury, which can approve indictments – evidenced by the charges he’s brought against at least four former Trump campaign officials. While it has subpoena power, Congress can’t arrest anybody…

    …So without a special counsel, Republicans’ options for holding the bureau accountable remain limited…

  • Would Rural Areas Be Safer In A SHTF Situation?

    Authored by Tom Chatham via Project Chesapeake,

    In a situation where national infrastructure and life sustaining resources are suddenly cut off , population density will have a lot to do with how well you get by in the days following the crisis. When it happens, what you have on hand will likely be all you have to work with for an extended time. Those that lack supplies will seek out and take what they need in an increasingly hostile manner as time goes on. This is why being in a large city will likely be hazardous to your well being.

     

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180124_shtf.jpg

    Very few will argue that being in a rural area when something catastrophic happens will greatly increase your chances of survival. A lower population density and more available natural resources to help you get by will make long term survival much easier. This is why so many people advocate heading for a rural area when something happens. The problem is unless you are already established in a rural area, survival will not necessarily be easier.

    Leaving the city when supplies and infrastructure are shut down would work only up to a point. Rural areas are like anywhere else. They have infrastructure designed to service a certain number of people that normally live there. The housing, restaurants, roadways, water systems and grocery stores will only handle a small excess of people even in the best of times. When the city dwellers suddenly evacuate to the rural areas in mass, they will simply be taking many of their big city problems with them. They will likely find no housing, food supplies or other infrastructure they need to live.

    Because of this many small towns will likely close their roads at some point and prevent entry to anyone who does not live there. They will suddenly realize their already finite resources will not be enough for themselves much less thousands of new people. This realization will likely come only after they have been inundated with strangers demanding supplies and housing. It is for this reason that rural dwellers should hope cities are locked down fairly quickly to prevent people from leaving.

    When Henry Kaiser built a new shipyard in Richmond, Ca. in the 1940’s the town was suddenly overwhelmed with new workers. People lived in shoddy trailers they towed in, some slept in boarding houses in shifts and the schools ran three shifts a day. Eventually they built the new infrastructure they needed and life went on but this only happened because they were living in normal times when everything was working properly. Imagine an influx of people into a small town when supplies are already limited and likely to get worse as time goes on.

    That is why it is essential that you establish yourself in a rural area before something happens. Simply hoping to show up following an event is no plan and will likely cause resentment by the locals when supplies run low.

    Rural areas offer the opportunity to be much more self reliant than city spaces. This is the reason rural areas offer people a better chance to survive something like a grid down scenario. This is only true until the carrying capacity of the rural area is breached. That is when the city problems become rural problems. Simply moving a mass of unprepared people to another area with even less infrastructure will not solve the problem, it will only change the surroundings and create other problems.

    There is an old saying that you never eat your seed stock. Self sufficient people know this because if they eat their seeds or butcher their breeding stock they will not have anything to raise the following year which will lead to eventual starvation or loss of future income. To an unprepared person that thinks food is produced in a factory, preserving seed stock makes no sense when they are hungry right now. They do not care about next year, they only care about today which is why they got into their situation in the first place. This is the type of situation that can doom a society if they lose the ability to produce future crops, even on a small scale.

    Will rural areas be safer in a SHTF situation? Only if they can maintain order and protect the resources they have to insure long term sustainability of the community. Most communities are not prepared for this type of situation and will need a steep learning curve if they are to survive it. Many will likely not survive it.

    Modern farming communities do not have the infrastructure to maintain themselves like many once did. Factory farming has moved much of the local production to central locations around the nation and few farmers produce their own seed locally. These and other modern systems will make it difficult for many farm communities to even care for their own much less thousands of new arrivals.

    The only communities that are likely to survive in tact are the ones that are mostly self sufficient already and have a plan to maintain production and protect themselves from looters and overcrowding. Simply running to a rural area in a time of crisis is no cure all. Wherever you are, the key to survival will be advance preparation and a good plan.

  • Dollar Resumes Nosedive As China Threatens US With "Appropriate Measures" Over Trade

    The war of words (China) and deeds (US) is hotting up once again tonight, sending the Dollar Index careening back to new cycle lows

     

    Following Wilbur Ross’ “China’s direct threat” comments today in Davos, China’s MOFCOM has responded with the most aggressive rhetoric yet..

    • CHINA SAYS USTR REPORT OVERLOOKS FACT, SHOWS UNILATERALISM
    • CHINA “STRONGLY OPPOSES” USTR REPORT: COMMERCE MINISTRY
    • CHINA DOESN’T WANT ESCALATION OF TRADE SPATS WITH U.S.: MOFCOM
    • CHINA ALWAYS OPEN TO DIALOGUE, COOPERATION WITH U.S.: MOFCOM
    • CHINA TO TAKE APPROPRIATE MEASURES AGAINST UNILATERAL MOVES
    • MOFCOM SAYS CHINA TRADE FRICTIONS OUTLOOK STILL SEVERE IN 2018
    • CHINA HOPES TO HANDLE FRICTIONS WITH US IN PROPER MANNER:MOFCOM

    Which has sparked another leg down in the relentless dollar dump…

     

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180124_dollar.jpg

     

    The collapse in the dollar has sent the Yuan back up near its pre-2015-devaluation levels…

     

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180124_dollar1.jpg

    The rapid appreciation against the dollar has fueled speculation policy makers will take additional steps to slow the the pace of gains, although its relatively slower ascent against a basket of peers may make the strength less of an issue than last time round.

    “The rapid strengthening has triggered a panic in the market, aggravating the sentiment to sell the dollar,” said Tommy Xie, an economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. in Singapore. “Apart from the weakening dollar, high onshore funding rates and strong demand for cross-border financing will both take foreign currencies back to China.”

    Perhaps more notable is the fact that the world’s most overheated market has at last succumbed to gravity.

     

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180124_dollar2.jpg

    The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index slumped as much as 2.1 percent on Thursday, heading for its first down day since Dec. 27, with financial shares leading losses. The gauge, which tracks Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong, is still up 14 percent for the year and beating virtually all other equity benchmarks in the world.

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Today’s News 24th January 2018

  • America's Coldest Cities… And GDP

    As Q4 GDP data looms this week, we are reminded just how important ‘weather’ is in the narrative of economic growth in America.

    Q1 may fare far worse as the last few weeks saw the East Coast of the United States endure a brutal winter storm which caused the deaths of 16 people. It also led to widespread power outages and the cancellation of thousands of flights.

    As Statista’s Niall McCarthy notes, thick snow is common in the Northeast during the long and dark winter months but the cold snap came as more of a surprise in Florida. The 40 degree weather even caused iguanas and other reptiles to “fall out of trees”, immobilized by the cold.

    As shocking at the blast of cold was for Floridians, they can certainly count themselves lucky to live far away from the coldest areas of the U.S. where cladding yourself in layers of winter clothing is a normality.

    Infographic: America's Coldest Cities  | Statista

    You will find more statistics at Statista

    Website 24/7 Wall St. found that Fairbanks, Alaska, is America’s coldest city with minimum average temperatures in the coldest month a very chilly -16.9° F. The historic low is -66° F.

    The fact that the country’s coldest city is in Alaska probably comes as little surprise.

    Elsewhere, North and South Dakota dominate the list of America’s ten coldest cities. Three cities in North Dakota – Grand Forks, Williston and Fargo – follow Fairbanks with all having average temperatures at or below zero degrees.

  • WW3 Preparations? Amidst Drought, North Korean Officials Raid Homes And Farms To Feed Army

    Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

    North Korean officials are ransacking homes and raiding farms in order to feed their starving army. 

     

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180123_NK1.jpg

    Not only has the drought taken its toll on the nation, but this newest harsh seizure of food is causing internal clashes between the civilians and the army.

     

     

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180123_NK3.jpg

    Soldiers for the communist regime had already been given long periods of leave in order to try to find food and make money to purchase food. However, it hasn’t been enough. Collective farms are suffering due to drought and poor harvests, leading officials to ransack farms and homes in order to find any stored food or money that might benefit the army, Daily NK reports.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180123_NK2.jpg

    While North Korean citizens are used to officials searching for food and asking for bribes, their use of increasingly brutal tactics to feed a starving army has led to reported clashes between troops and citizens. Farms in the country have not been able to meet quotas, and in response, officials are giving them new assignments.

    “We are suffering because collective farms in our region did not have a good harvest last year and so we were unable to fulfill the mandatory quota for military provisions. All individuals who weren’t able to meet the demands have been receiving additional assignments since the very beginning of January,” a source in South Hamgyong Province reported to Daily NK.

     “This year, we have to postpone our farm work due to this ‘extremely urgent’ task of gathering food for the military,” the source said.

    In the past, individuals were allowed to take leave from farm work to obtain money for fertilizer or farm equipment.  But this year, any money is being used to procure food and other items for military use.

    “Last year, most of this region, including the Taehongdan, Pochon, Samjiyon, and Paekam areas, were not able to meet their military provision quotas. These demands are pushing people to their wits’ end,” said a separate source in the Ryanggang Province.

    “Sometime in spring, the collective farms that are behind on their quotas will have some of their constituents provide frozen potatoes, which are processed by peeling and drying before presentation to the authorities. But many also call the season the ‘time when thieves (in this case, the farm authorities) rear their ugly heads,‘” he added.

    Famine is believed to have previously killed millions of people in the hermit kingdom. The communist regime prioritizes sending food and resources to the military and high ranking government officials over its general population.

  • Russian Submarine Seen Engulfed In Flames, Russian Navy Calls It An "Exercise"

    A video that first surfaced on Twitter and has since made the rounds on social media, appears to show a moored Russian Kilo-class attack submarine’s stern-engulfed in thick, black smoke.

    The striking footage was filmed in the Russian Pacific port city of Vladivostok, facing the Golden Horn Bay, near the borders with China and North Korea. The port of Vladivostok happens to be the home port of the Russian Pacific fleet and the most significant Russian port on the Pacific Ocean.

    Shortly after the videos were uploaded to social media, the Russian Navy swiftly came out calling the fire part of a “damage control exercise.” Russia’s news outlet TASS quoted the Russian Navy as stating:

    “Exercises to extinguish a fire on the pier using imitation were conducted on the territory of the connection of the Pacific Fleet submarines among personnel.” The contingent fire was eliminated in six minutes. “The personnel coped with the” excellent .” 

    Another report from Interfax News states that the Russian military has denied reports of a fire on the submarine base in Vladivostok.

    Five submarines and a dozen Russian naval ships are seen moored in close quarters to the high-volume, ultradense, thick, black smoke spewing from around the stern of the submarine.

    Black fires can reach temperatures of more than 1,000°F.  Material Safety Data Sheet published by ConocoPhillips shows the flashpoint of diesel fuel is between 125 and 180 degrees Fahrenheit, which indicates the fire in the video could indeed provide a hot enough flashpoint to ignite petroleum or diesel.

    Why mention diesel flashpoints? Because diesel-electric motors drive the Kilo-class attack submarine’s propulsion system. From the angle of the video, the position of the fire is around or within the stern of the sub, where the propulsion drive systems are located.

    asd

    A view of the incident from across the harbor:

    Another vantage point of the incident from across the harbor: if indeed an exercise, where are the support teams to control the situation?

    According to Popular Mechanics, the Kilo-class attack submarine has a history of technical difficulties.

    In 2013, the Indian submarine INS Sindhurakshak caught fire and sank portside in Mumbai. A fire in the forward weapons bay triggered explosions of torpedoes and cruise missile warheads in the fully stocked bay. The accident killed eighteen sailors and rendered the ship unrecoverable, and it was finally stricken from Indian Navy rolls in 2017.

    The incident in Vladivostok has gained so much internet notoriety in the past few days, it has prompted the Russian military to officially deny it and call it a “damage control exercise”, which of course is the fastest way to confirm it happened. Because if the billowing black smoke was “planned”, we would hate to see what an out of control submarine incident would look like.

  • AI Censorship And The Power Of 'Steem' To Preserve Truth

    Authored by Tom Luongo,

    Just read a great article by Caitlin Johnstone over at Medium where she discusses the automation of censorship tools by companies like Twitter and Google.

    Putting paid Julian Assange’s warning last year on this, Ms. Johnstone details just some of the abuses that Twitter and Google engaged in to subtly and not-so-subtly shift public perception of major issues that run counter to the narrative the power structure wants us to believe.

    And it is for this reason that projects like Steemit are so very important.

    I talked about how important Steem is after James O’Keefe’s latest expose of Twitter (read it here).  Watching people like Mrs. Johnstone wake up to the problem is great, but she also needs to take the next step.

    You can’t hack something whose underlying content is stored in a distributed blockchain. Because the blockchain’s ledger is immutable, what you wrote is preserved in all of its glory (ignominious or otherwise) forever.

    As she points out, type of censorship is far worse than simply throwing books into piles and burning them. With DRM and all digital assets, inconvenient truths can be memory-holed off your Kindle never to be seen again.

    Abridged versions of books can be substituted for the original text and worse.

    So, the blockchain as it pertains to how we communicate is a fundamental need to disrupt this communications super-state they are building.

    I can’t stress enough how important this is today.

    Now, more than ever, the information war is heating up. And the ability to control not just the validity of what people produce but what everyone consumes is the single most important issue of the age.

    If we are to finally break the backs of the people working so hard to maintain their gravy train, we have to build systems that are beyond their control.

    This is an ideological war.

    One in which those that feel they have a right, nee a duty, to guide humankind to their preferred outcome for society.

    On the other side is the force of the individual and chaos and the beauty of decentralization to create order versus forcing it to.

    The essence of the authoritarian mindset was expressed beautifully in the much-maligned film, Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice.

    At his lowest point a paranoid, angry and bitter Batman is trying to kill that which he can’t control, Superman. And he says with all the fury of a frustrated villain, “The world only makes sense if you force it to.”

    As a long-time Batman fan I died a little inside to see him brought to that low.  But it was always there. That’s the problem when you fight for something without remembering what it is you are fighting for.

    It’s so easy to become that which you think you’re fighting against.

    And there is a better way than using their methods, which are inherently violent.  What they do is commit fraud in the name of progress.  And fraud is just another form of theft.

    Steem is the way to beat them at their own game, without using their methods.  Simply speak the truth and record it for all time.

    Moreover, it takes earning power of the idea-creator and puts it in their hands, not the hands of the distributors and the rent-seekers, like Google and Twitter.

    The growth of the platform is the way to claw back the capital they have been taking for themselves because before this we were just happy to have a platform to express ourselves.

    Now those platforms have become chains around our necks. Tools of censorship and oppression; spreading false narratives and suppressing the truth while making them billions.

    The worst part is that we are so inculcated in this abusive system that we come to devalue our own work. That it’s not worth $2 or even $20 for us to produce something that changes the course of someone’s life.

    And so people’s first reaction to Steem is that it’s a scam.  It is nothing of the sort.  The scam is Twitter.  The scam is Facebook.  Your life, ideas and work have value.  But, they’ve taught you to think that it doesn’t.

    That is the true power of ideas… and you know what the man said about ideas right?

     

    Properly managed and protected, so are blockchains created to hold those ideas, preserve them in digital amber and allow us to find our own way to the truth.

  • Watch A Comedian Shred CNN's Regime Change Talking Points In Under A Minute

    This could well be one of the most epic less-than-60-second devastating take-down of just about every mainstream media lie on Syria… In case you missed it, an entire panel of guests revolted against well-known conservative commentator S.E. Cupp’s demands that the US “do something” to remove the Assad government during a segment on her CNN HLN show late last week, but it was a comedian that delivered the final death blow, calling Cupp’s recycled regime change talking points “insane”.  

    Cupp has for years argued that “US inaction” is to blame for Syria’s woes and has been a consistent and prominent voice on the right calling for increased and more direct military action in the Syrian war – even as top US officials and Pentagon and intelligence insiders have since been very blunt in stating the obvious that only al-Qaeda and ISIS would fill the vacuum should the Assad government be removed by military force.

    asd
    S.E. Cupp: “Isn’t it time to do something in Syria in a full-throated way?”

    During a recent Syria panel discussion on “SE Cupp Unfiltered,” she revisited the idea of regime change, posing the question for the panel: “isn’t it time to do something in Syria in a full-throated way?”

    For hawks like Cupp, nothing is ever enough apparently, even as Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has pledged that US forces will occupy… remain in Syria for an indefinite amount of time to support proxy SDF forces on the ground, primarily to “counter Iran” while seeking “political transition” in Damascus.

    She introduced the segment with a heatedly emotional appeal to her guest panelists, pleading we “must do something” because “500,000 people died while we did nothing” and arguing that “ignoring all of this… the chemical weapons, ISIS, al-Qaeda, Hezbollah, Iran, Russia… it just gets worse”. Cupp later answered her own question, saying that solving the crisis “is completely possible if you get rid of Assad“. 

    But the panel wasn’t buying it. In a rare moment for mainstream network television, the entire group of panelists revolted with each commentator getting more blunt in their pushback against Cupp than the last – until finally stand-up comedian and libertarian commentator Dave Smith apparently couldn’t take Cupp’s smug clichéd and recycled talking points anymore.

    Smith – though not some usual think tank blowhard that frequents such foreign policy debate panels – expertly schooled Cupp and dismantled her every assumption, demonstrating that it has been precisely US action in the region that has fueled the crisis in Syria, starting with the 2003 invasion of Iraq and continuing with the CIA program to arm the anti-Assad insurgency in Syria. And he did it all in under 60 seconds.

    “…The most ridiculous plan that I’ve heard yet… This is insane… ISIS rose because we overthrew Saddam Hussein and then we armed ISIS,” Smith said.  

    Watch the full clip below (stand-up comic Dave Smith comes in at the 1:55 mark): 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Smith’s epic diatribe met with no resistance. He said: 

    “Regime change has been an absolute nightmare everywhere that we’ve had it. And the idea that we’re going to go into a civil war and take both sides out is of all of these wars the most ridiculous plan that I’ve heard yet.

    And as far as standing back while hundreds of thousands of people die – no one seems to have a problem with doing that in Yemen right now because it’s not the regime that we want to overthrow, it’s the regime we support doing it.

    This is insane! ISIS did not rise because we pulled out of Iraq because of a bad decision – we pulled out on Bush’s timeline because we had to because the government of Iraq was no longer going to protect our troops against war crimes.

    ISIS rose because we overthrew Saddam Hussein and then we armed ISIS. We need to not intervene in this part of the world – it’s an immoral war, it’s an illegal war. Syria has not attacked America. We have no legitimate reason for our defense to be there, and this is exactly what Obama promised not to do, and what Trump promised not to do.”

    Apparently, S.E. Cupp couldn’t come up with any better response other than to half-heartedly say, “I disagree”… before quickly ending the segment.

  • Dollar Dumps Below Key Level – Worst Start To A Year Since 2003

    For the first time since December 2014, the Dollar Index has tumbled below 90.00 tonight as the greenback-bloodbath continues in early Asian FX trading…amid US trade policy concerns.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180123_USD.jpg

    2017 was an ugly year for the dollar, but 2018 is starting off worse with the Dollar Index down 2.43% so far – the worst start since 2003.

    In fact it has been a one-way street since The Fed hiked rates in December.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180123_USD1.jpg

     

    Also of note tonight, the dollar weakness has sent USDJPY back below 110

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180123_USD2.jpg

    As Bloomberg reports, the dollar dropped to a three-year low, weighed by concerns over U.S.’s trade policies and a report that President Donald Trump may be questioned in the Russian investigation.

    The Dollar Index is poised for its third day of losses as investors await China’s reaction to Trump’s trade tariffs on solar panels and washing machines.

    Special counsel Robert Mueller wants to question Trump about his decision to fire former FBI Director James Comey as well as the removal of Michael Flynn.

    “While at this stage Trump’s protectionist rhetoric is being applied sparingly and not drawing a reaction from China, there is the threat of Trump ramping up protectionism,” said David Forrester, a strategist at Credit Agricole SA’s corporate and investment-banking unit in Hong Kong. That will weigh on the dollar, he said.

    The question is – will the lagged correlation continue?

     

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180123_USD3.jpg

  • It's Official: 2017 Was Mexico's Most-Murderous Year Ever

    Across the 31-Mexican states, there were 29,168 homicides in 2017, the federal government published in a brand new report on Sunday, making last year the most murderous year on record.

    Infographic: Drug Violence Drives Mexico Murders To Record High  | Statista

    You will find more statistics at Statista

    The latest homicide data from the interior ministry is the highest ever to be reported since records were first kept in 1997 and represents a whopping 27% surge over 2016 figures.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180123_mexico1_1.jpg

    The interior ministry details last year’s per capita homicide rate at 20.5 per 100,000 inhabitants, up more than one point from 19.4 in 2011.

    Last week, President Trump tweeted that Mexico is one of the most dangerous countries in the world. He cited the “massive inflow of drugs” and alluded to the out of control cartel violence across the nation, as a great sales pitch to the American people of why his proposed Mexico–United States border wall needs funding.

    Earlier this month, the U.S. State Department warned U.S. citizens and U.S. government employees to exercise increased caution while traveling in Mexico, and even restricted some regions from access because of “violent crime, such as homicide, kidnapping, carjacking, and robbery.”

     

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180123_mexico2.jpg

    While the U.S. State Department discouraged all travel to 31 Mexican states, the new travel warning elevated five states to a level-4 status, otherwise known as a war-zone like some countries in the Middle East.

    The U.S. State Department defines Level-4 as :

    Do Not Travel: This is the highest advisory level due to greater likelihood of life-threatening risks. During an emergency, the U.S. government may have very limited ability to provide assistance. The Department of State advises that U.S. citizens not travel to the country or leave as soon as it is safe to do so. The Department of State provides additional advice for travelers in these areas in the Travel Advisory. Conditions in any country may change at any time.

    Level-4 states in Mexico:

    • Colima state due to crime.
    • Guerrero state due to crime.
    • Michoacán state due to crime.
    • Sinaloa state due to crime.
    • Tamaulipas state due to crime.

    A majority of the level-4 states reside in the western region of Mexico, where violence between drug cartels is out of control.

    CNN describes that outside the world’s war zones of the Middle East, Mexico is by far the most dangerous place for journalists.

    Last year six journalists were killed in Mexico, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists, a US nonprofit. That was the highest number since at least 1992. Since that year more than 40 journalists have been killed in the country.

    Despite 16% of the Mexican states classified as a war-zone or “shithole” by the U.S. State Department, there is even more death and destruction in South American countries. El Salvador reported a homicide rate of 60.8 per 100,000 inhabitants last year, which is three times the rate of Mexico. Brazil and Colombia recorded more violent rates than Mexico in 2017, with both countries averaging around 27 per 10,000 inhabitants. The rates for several U.S. cities, including St Louis, Baltimore, New Orleans and Detroit, were also higher than the overall rate for Mexico, AP said.

    Nevertheless, the homicide rates were wildly disturbing in level-4 states in Mexico. Take, for instance, the small Pacific coast state of Colima had 93.6 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants last year, while a non-level-4 region of Baja California Sur logged in 69.1 per 100,000 inhabitants last year.

     

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180123_mexico3.jpg

    Here is what CNN had to say about the Mexican “shithole”-

    In Guerrero — the state where Acapulco is located — murders rose to 2,316 last year, about the same as 2016, but up from 1,514 in 2014.

    In Sinaloa, the former turf of notorious, imprisoned drug lord Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman, homicides in 2017 soared 39% over last year to 1,332.

    In Baja California Sur, an area filled with popular tourist destinations such as Cabo San Lucas, the number of murders nearly tripled last year to 560.

    Security and crime look set to be among the top issues in Mexico’s presidential campaign season, which officially begins in March. The election is July 1. President Enrique Peña Nieto can’t run again due to term limits. He and his political party have been heavily criticized for their inability to tame drug-related crime.

    His administration has also called on the United States to help more, arguing that Americans’ demand for drugs is partly fueling.

    Mexico is preparing for the general elections in July. Voters will elect a new president, 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies, and 128 Senate members. The current Mexico President Enrique Pena Nieto had pledged to end drug cartels violence throughout the country in 2012, but that turned out to be a wishful campaign promise as homicides in 2017 surged to record levels.  The left-wing and former Mexico City mayor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is the current frontrunner, as cartel violence and drugs will be a pivot topic during the election.

  • Patrick Cockburn Rages: "It's Time To Call Economic Sanctions What They Are: War Crimes"

    Authored by Patrick Cockburn via Counterpunch.org,

    The first pathetic pieces of wreckage from North Korean fishing boats known as “ghost ships” to be found this year are washing up on the coast of northern Japan. These are the storm-battered remains of fragile wooden boats with unreliable engines in which North Korean fishermen go far out to sea in the middle of winter in a desperate search for fish.

     

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    Often all that survives is the shattered wooden hull of the boat cast up on the shore, but in some cases the Japanese find the bodies of fishermen who died of hunger and thirst as they drifted across the Sea of Japan. Occasionally, a few famished survivors are alive and explain that their engine failed or they ran out of fuel or they were victims of some other fatal mishap.

    The number of “ghost ships” is rising with no fewer than 104 found in 2017, which is more than in any previous year, though the real figure must be higher because many boats will have sunk without trace in the 600 miles of rough sea between North Korea and Japan.

    The reason so many fishermen risk and lose their lives is hunger in North Korea where fish is the cheapest form of protein. The government imposes quotas for fishermen that force them to go far out to sea. Part of their catch is then sold on to China for cash, making fish one of the biggest of North Korea’s few export items.

    The fact that North Korean fishermen took greater risks and died in greater numbers last year is evidence that international sanctions imposed on North Korea are, in a certain sense, a success: the country is clearly under severe economic pressure. But, as with sanctions elsewhere in the world past and present, the pressure is not on the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, who looks particularly plump and well-fed, but on the poor and the powerless.

    The record of economic sanctions in forcing political change is dismal, but as a way of reducing a country to poverty and misery it is difficult to beat. UN sanctions were imposed against Iraq from 1990 until 2003. Supposedly, it was directed against Saddam Hussein and his regime, though it did nothing to dislodge or weaken them: on the contrary, the Baathist political elite took advantage of the scarcity of various items to enrich themselves by becoming the sole suppliers. Saddam’s odious elder son Uday made vast profits by controlling the import of cigarettes into Iraq.

    The bureaucrats in charge of UN sanctions in Iraq always pretended that they prevented Saddam rebuilding his military strength. This was always a hypocritical lie: the Iraqi army did not fight for him in 1991 at the beginning of sanctions any more than it did when they ended. It was absurd to imagine that dictators like Kim Jong-un or Saddam Hussein would be influenced by the sufferings of their people.

    These are very real: I used to visit Iraqi hospitals in the 1990s where the oxygen had run out and there were no tyres for the ambulances. Once, I was pursued across a field in Diyala province north of Baghdad by local farmers holding up dusty X-rays of their children because they thought I might be a visiting foreign doctor.

    Saddam Hussein and his senior lieutenants were rightly executed for their crimes, but the foreign politicians and officials who were responsible for the sanctions regime that killed so many deserved to stand beside them in the dock. It is time that the imposition of economic sanctions should be seen as a war crime, since it involves the collective punishment of millions of innocent civilians who die, sicken or are reduced to living off scraps from the garbage dumps.

    There is nothing very new in this. Economic sanctions are like a medieval siege but with a modern PR apparatus attached to justify what is being done. A difference is that such sieges used to be directed at starving out a single town or city while now they are aimed at squeezing whole countries into submission.

    An attraction for politicians is that sanctions can be sold to the public, though of course not to people at the receiving end, as more humane than military action. There is usually a pretence that foodstuffs and medical equipment are being allowed through freely and no mention is made of the financial and other regulatory obstacles making it impossible to deliver them.

    An example of this is the draconian sanctions imposed on Syria by the US and EU which were meant to target President Bashar al-Assad and help remove him from power. They have wholly failed to do this, but a UN internal report leaked in 2016 shows all too convincingly the effect of the embargo in stopping the delivery of aid by international aid agencies. They cannot import the aid despite waivers because banks and commercial companies dare not risk being penalised for having anything to do with Syria. The report quotes a European doctor working in Syria as saying that “the indirect effect of sanctions … makes the import of the medical instruments and other medical supplies immensely difficult, near impossible.”

    People should be just as outraged by the impact of this sort of thing as they are by the destruction of hospitals by bombing and artillery fire. But the picture of X-ray or kidney dialysis machines lacking essential spare parts is never going to compete for impact with film of dead and wounded on the front line. And those who die because medical equipment has been disabled by sanctions are likely to do so undramatically and out of sight.

    Embargoes are dull and war is exciting. A few failed rocket strikes against Riyadh by the Houthi forces in Yemen was heavily publicised, though no Saudis were killed. Compare this to the scant coverage of the Saudi embargo on Houthi-held Yemen which has helped cause the largest man-made famine in recent history. In addition, there are over one million cholera cases suspected and 2,000 Yemenis have died from the illness according to the World Health Organisation.

    PR gambits justifying sanctions are often the same regardless of circumstances. One is to claim that the economic damage caused prevents those who are targeted spending money on guns and terror. President Trump denounces the nuclear deal with Iran on the grounds that it frees up money to finance Iranian foreign ventures, though the cost of these is small and, in Iraq, Iranian activities probably make a profit.

     

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    Sanctions are just as much a collective punishment as area bombing in East Aleppo, Raqqa and Mosul. They may even kill more people than the bombs and shells because they go on for years and their effect is cumulative. The death of so many North Korean fishermen in their unseaworthy wooden craft is one side effect of sanctions but not atypical of their toxic impact. As usual, they are hitting the wrong target and they are not succeeding against Kim Jong-un any more than they did against Saddam Hussein.

  • Tillerson Blames Russia For Alleged Syria Chemical Attack After Admitting He Doesn't Actually Know Who Did It

    It’s so absurd it’s hard to believe, but when it comes to US policy absurdity has been par for the course over the past years. At an international meeting hosted by France on global chemical weapons proliferation Secretary of State Rex Tillerson blamed both Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad and Russia for carrying out a purported new chemical attack in the Damascus suburb of East Ghouta. Speaking from Paris on Tuesday, Tillerson said, Whoever conducted the attacks Russia ultimately bears responsibility for the victims in eastern Ghouta and countless other Syrians targeted with chemical weapons since Russia became involved in Syria.”

    That’s right – in the same sentence Tillerson leveled the accusation against Russia, while simultaneously pointing the finger at Assad, he admitted that he really doesn’t know much at all about “whoever conducted the attacks”.

    The incident, a reported chlorine gas attack delivered via rockets, is said to have happened Monday in the same suburb of Syria’s capital that a much larger August 2013 attack took place, which the United States blamed on Assad, which nearly precipitated direct US military intervention under the Obama administration, according to an investigative report by Seymour Hersh in the London Review of Books.


    Tillerson issued the accusation at chemical weapons conference in Paris on Tuesday. Image source: AP via The Washington Post

    “Only yesterday more than 20 civilians, mostly children, were victims of an apparent chlorine gas attack,” Tillerson said at the Paris conference involving 24 nations, which has eyed chemical weapons usage in Syria in particular. He added that the attacks “raise serious concerns that Bashar al-Assad may be continuing to use chemical weapons against his own people.”

    And this is where the US Secretary of State asserted, “Whoever conducted the attacks Russia ultimately bears responsibility for the victims in eastern Ghouta and countless other Syrians targeted with chemical weapons since Russia became involved in Syria.”

    The sole sources for the reports include two well-known opposition groups, namely the White Helmets and the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) – both of which have long been on record as seeking regime change in Syria and have been go-to sources for American and UK media in particular. SOHR is led by one man, an activist named Rami Abdulrahman, who lives in Coventry, England, while the White Helmets is on record as being funded by US and UK governments to the tune of many tens of millions of dollars, and has further been caught cooperating closely with al-Qaeda factions on the ground in Syria. Indeed the group only operates in areas controlled by al-Qaeda (HTS) and other anti-government insurgents.

    On Monday the White Helmets posted two videos to its Twitter account, purporting to show the aftermath of the attack. The first video included men and children, some lying on hospital beds, in a makeshift clinic receiving treatment. The White Helmets statement claimed, “More than 20 of suffocation so far following the bombing of the Assad regime forces with missiles carrying poisonous gases (probably chlorine).” The second video merely shows a White Helmets rescue worker carrying an infant in the back of an ambulance with no chemical protective gear on. 

    It appears that Tillerson is pointing the finger at Assad and Russia based solely on the White Helmets videos and accusations, despite the fact that no international observer or investigative body has confirmed that the incident even took place. Tillerson further used the alleged incident to blame Russia for breaking prior commitments made regarding the 2013-2014 US-Russia brokered deal to dismantle Syria’s extensive nerve agent program, which was widely reported to have been successfully carried out and completed in 2014. 

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    “There is simply no denying that Russia, by shielding its Syrian ally, has breached its commitments to the United States as a framework guarantor,” Tillerson said of the prior 2013 agreement, and added, “Russia’s failure to resolve the chemical weapons issue in Syria calls into question its relevance to the resolution of the overall crisis. At a bare minimum, Russia must stop vetoing and at least abstain on future UNSC resolutions on this issue.”

    Meanwhile, earlier on Tuesday, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov heavily criticized the Paris conference, which has as its mission the creation of an ‘International Partnership against Impunity for the Use of Chemical Weapons’, accusing attendees of seeking to create a new “quasi-collective” organ instead of using already existing international institutions. The Russian Deputy FM said in a statement carried by RT that, “The quasi-collective approach, or, in fact, gathering up the states who cannot go against Euro-grands and the US is a direct violation of the prerogatives of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, a blow to the UN platform,” Ryabkov said.

    “We believe that the result of such sort of ‘exercises’ will be only further partition of the international community,” he warned. “Authors of such ideas and initiatives should really consider the consequences.”

    Russia has long accused the US of blindly trusting opposition sources inside Syria concerning claims of chemical weapons attacks, including an April 2017 incident in al-Qaeda controlled (HTS) Idlib, which resulted in the US attacking an airbase in central Syria.

    Last October, the US State Department admitted that anti-Assad militant groups operating in Syria, especially in Idlib, possess and have used chemical weapons throughout the war – something which the US government said was impossible, as it consistently held the position that only the Assad government could be to blame. 

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Today’s News 23rd January 2018

  • Will Missing Texts Save Manafort From Mueller's Probe?

    Some have suggested that the FBI losing five months of text messages between anti-Trump investigators is a coverup of an “insurance policy” to smear Donald Trump with claims of Russian collusion in the event of a win. Others have suggested it’s simply bureaucratic incompetence. Paul Manafort’s attorneys, on the other hand, are likely chomping at the bit see if they can argue for a dismissal of the federal charges against their client due to Robert Mueller’s increasingly tainted probe.

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    Look for Paul Manafort to jump all over this. He’s already fighting his indictment, claiming that Mueller is overstepping his authority and shouldn’t be running the investigation. Throw in this evidence that the investigation may have been tainted before Mueller even took over, and that the DOJ could be covering up damaging information, and a motion to dismiss alleging prosecutorial misconduct is a near certainty.

    FBI Agent Strzok was reportedly heading up the Manafort investigation before he was taken off the Mueller probe. Manafort’s attorney might try to say that the missing text messages could contain exculpatory evidence (or evidence favorable to the defendant) and therefore the court should get to the bottom of what the two said.  However, two former federal prosecutors who spoke to Law&Crime both contend it would be difficult to get the entire indictment dismissed based on the text messages alone.LawandCrime.com

    “It depends on what FBI’s retention policy is for text messages. It does certainly raise questions as to how these five months came up missing,” explained former federal prosecutor Bill Thomas, adding “However, the court is not going to just dismiss the case. If it comes to it, the judge may hold a hearing to get to that information through calling witnesses. Dismissal is the nuclear option, it would have to be something very very egregious for a court to dismiss the case.”

    Very very egregious

    The bombshell announcement regarding the missing text messages did not go over well with Congressional investigators. In a letter from Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI), Chairman of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee (HSGAC) to FBI director Christopher Wray, Johnson asks five key questions: 

    1. Please explain the scope and scale of all records lost, destroyed, or otherwise alienated during the midyear examination investigation
    2. Does the FBI have any records of communications between Ms. Page and Mr. Strzok between December 14, 2016 and May 17, 2017? If so, please provide those communications.
    3. Has the FBI conducted searches of Mr. Strzok and Ms. Page’s non-FBI-issued communication devices or accounts to determine whether federal records exist on those nonofficial accounts? Please explain how the FBI is complying with federal records requirements with respect to these devices.
    4. Has the FBI produced text messages to the Department of Justice Office of the Inspector General (DOJ OIG) or any other FBI employees in furtherance of the DOJ OIG’s review of the Clinton email investigation? If so, please identify which FBI employees’ communications were produced.
    5. Has the FBI produced Microsoft Lync conversations between Ms. Page and Mr. Strzok to the DOJ OIG? Please explain. 

     

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    Question four is an interesting one – considering the conflicting information discovered last night between the FBI and the Office of the Inspector General (OIG). A Friday document submission from the DOJ included a cover letter from the Assistant AG for Legislative Affairs, Stephen Boyd, claiming that the FBI was unable to preserve text messages between the two agents for a five month period between December 14, 2016 and May 17, 2017 – due to “misconfiguration issues” with FBI-issued Samsung 5 devices used by Strzok and Page (despite over 10,000 texts which were recovered from their devices without incident).

     

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    However – as Josh Caplan points out, the lost text messages are in direct contradiction to a December 13, 2017 letter from the DOJ’s internal watchdog – Inspector General Michael Horowitz, to Senate Judiciary Committee Chuck Grassley and HSGAC Chairman Ron Johnson, in which he claims he received the texts in question on August 10, 2017

    In gathering evidence for the OIG’s ongoing 2016 election review, we requested, consistent with standard practice, that the FBI produce text messages from the FBI-issued phones of certain FBI employees involved in the Clinton email investigation based on search terms we provided. After finding a number of politically-oriented text messages between Page and Strzok, the OIG sought from the FBI all text messages between Strzok and Page from their FBI-issued phones through November 30, 2016, which covered the entire period of the Clinton e-mail server investigation. The FBI produced these text messages on July 20, 2017. Following our review of those text messages, the OIG expanded our request to the FBI to include all text messages between Strzok and Page from November 30, 2016, through the date of the document request, which was July 28, 2017.

    The OIG received these additional messages on August 10, 2017.

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    As one can see, the deleted text messages are not only highly unusual – but the circumstances surrounding their disappearance are highly suspect, and may even be “very very egregious” upon further analysis

    We’re sure Paul Manafort’s legal team is drafting a motion to dismiss at this very moment.

  • Retired Green Beret Warns "The Public's Attention Is Being Diverted From What Is Really Happening"

    Authored by Jeremiah Johnson (nom de plume of a retired Green Beret of the United States Army Special Forces) via SHTFplan.com,

    The Russian surveillance vessel the Viktor Leonov was reportedly leaving the Caribbean over the weekend bound toward the U.S. East Coast. Florida will be reached by next Friday, and before this, the King’s Bay ballistic missile submarine base in Georgia is also along their projected route. This comes on the heels of what has gone largely unreported by the Mainstream Media. On Friday, 1/19/18, a report from U.S. National News emerged, entitled Submarine off of NJ/DE/MD coasts? US Navy deploys NINE Anti-Submarine Aircraft off East Coast Fearing Sub Missile Launch Against US. Here is an excerpt:

    The East Coast of the United States may be subjected to attack by submarine launched missile(s) and the US Navy has scrambled NUMEROUS P-8A POSEIDON anti-submarine aircraft, to repeatedly search coastal waters from New York City to Washington, DC ALL DAY Thursday into Thursday Evening. 

    According to flight records, at least NINE anti-submarine warfare aircraft were sortied Thursday off the US East Coast, and Flight Records show they were engaged in very active hunting for submarine(s) off the East Coast . . .. well WITHIN the 12-mile territorial limit of the United States.

    This article has plenty of photos, and some with the locations of CAP (Civil Air Patrol) enlisted to aid the U.S. Navy with the “shortfall” in radar coverage and area surveillance. The article also gives the disposition of numerous aircraft and shows the locations of monitored Russian submarines.

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    While all of this has been happening, “statesman” Rex Tillerson just came out and declared this at Stanford University on Wed., 1/17/18, as reported by RT News:

    “The Japanese… have had over a 100 North Korean fishing boats that have drifted into Japanese waters. Two-thirds of the people on those boats have died.” 

    “They [The fishermen] are being sent in the wintertime to fish because there are food shortages. And they are being sent out to fish with inadequate fuel to get back. So, we are getting a lot of evidence that these [sanctions] are really starting to hurt.

    Honorable Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. Pure statesmanship, pure diplomacy? No: pure extortion. This coming from a country (the U.S.) that wanted to depose Assad for the “brutal human rights violations” against civilians…but when it involves the civilians of a country we want to crush…what are a few hundred starving North Korean fisherman’s lives worth? Hey, the sanctions work! We oust leaders for human rights violations, but our policies and sanctions are “humane,” and “altruistic.” Let them join the IMF and World Bank, become a vassal, then they can shop at Costco. Then: let them eat cake!

    North Korea has the resolve to see through any paper-tiger sanctions initiated by a country that is a dying empire backed up by a “toothless” UN.

    China and Russia have the resolve to be positioning their assets now…prior to the conflict…the war that is forthcoming. It has been reported that the Chinese have moved troops and radiation detectors along their border with North Korea.

    Just about a week ago, the RAF had to scramble Typhoons to escort Russian bombers conducting practice runs along the Cold War routes that cover the UK.

    A very in-depth article came out that reports Russia and China to be skeptical concerning the U.S.’s gold supply.

    Economics is another form of warfare: should they prove the U.S. to not have on hand the gold reserves it claims to have, or (as it states) that the gold is of inferior quality to that traded by the rest of the world? This may very well be the final kicker to persuade nations to distrust the falling Petrodollar and remove the dollar as the World Currency exchange. Such would establish the positions of gold-backed Rubles and Yuan that also have oil to trade, to further bolster that worth on a global economy. For those who still watch television, enjoy your football and the upcoming Olympics.

    But keep this in mind: the powers that be will not rest in their inexorable march toward global government.

    It would not be the first time that bread and circuses were used to keep the mob entertained…and distracted from the sinister actions and purposes of their leaders and governments. In the meantime, other nations are preparing and positioning their forces, as well as conducting intelligence and surveillance on us…prior to the war that may come anytime.

    If the politicians are any indicator of how we’ll fare…the prognosis doesn’t look good. All of it can be avoided with diplomacy, but war is a money-maker, and a game changer for an incumbent whose ratings are flagging. War is their solution. Why? Because they live off our labors and our tax dollars ensure they’ll be safe and sound in their bunkers. Their world: opulent feasts, riches, maintaining power, with armies and unlimited resources…it will remain intact. Ours will not.

  • The Price Of Freedom: MbS's Corruption Crackdown Nets $100 Billion For Saudi State

    After nearly three months of “enhanced interrogations” and at least one reported death, Mohammad bin Salman’s hired mercenaries have nearly finished the job. Bloomberg reported Monday that half of the roughly 180 royals being held at the Riyadh Ritz Carlton have agreed to pay a financial settlement in exchange for their freedom.

    The total amount raised is $100 billion in cash, stock, real estate and other assets – enough to cover the state’s 2017 budget deficit, and then some.

    Talks with suspects are expected to end by the end of the month and authorities will likely recover more than $100 billion in settlements, a senior official said, asking not to be identified because the details are private. Those who don’t reach deals will be referred to prosecutors, the official said.

    Authorities have already agreed to drop charges against about 90 suspects who were released, Attorney General Sheikh Saud Al Mojeb said in a separate interview at the Ritz-Carlton late on Sunday. About 95 people were still at the hotel, including five weighing settlement proposals, with the others reviewing evidence presented against them, he said.

    “The royal order was clear,” Al Mojeb said, as Arabic music streamed through loudspeakers in the hotel lobby. “Those who express remorse and agree to settle will have any criminal proceedings against them dropped.”

    That group reportedly includes Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, one of the world’s richest men. Bin Talal was reportedly strung upside down and beaten by mercenaries during his interrogation. He eventually relented and agreed to a settlement. Back in November, we reported that Miteb al Abdullah, a prince accused of embezzlement and corruption, settled for $1 billion.

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    Major General Ali Alqahtani was reportedly beaten to death by mercenaries after refusing the state’s offer of a settlement. Meanwhile, at least one royal, Prince Abdul Aziz bin Fahd, was killed during a gun battle with Saudi state security after refusing to surrender.

    Several other high-ranking officials died in suspicious helicopter crashes around the time the purge was launched on Nov. 4.

    Billionaire Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal was among those detained, as was former Finance Minister Ibrahim Al-Assaf and Adel Al Fakeih, who was removed as minister of economy and planning on the eve of the arrests.

    The princes were detained in the 495-room hotel in Riyadh. Shortly after the crackdown began, images began circulating of royals sleeping on what appeared to be dirty mattresses in the ballroom of the Ritz Carlton.

    While 95 princes remain at the hotel, Bloomberg reported that only a handful are expected to reach a settlement. The rest will, presumably, serve lengthy prison sentences.

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    Saudi officials have defended the crackdown, while foreign observers have complained about a lack of transparency and rumors of widespread human rights abuses.

    The probe was conducted in a “pretty nontransparent way,” according to Moritz Kraemer, global chief rating officer at S&P Global Ratings, who appeared on Bloomberg TV Monday. The probe “could be a step in the right direction but it could also be a step towards more arbitrary ruling,” he said.

    About 350 people have been summoned during the probe, but many came as witnesses or to provide information, with some spending only a few hours or less at the Ritz, the official said.

    With the purge nearly over, the remaining guests will presumably soon be moved to their, uh, long-term accommodations, as the hotel has revealed that it will be taking bookings again as of Feb. 14.

    According to Bloomberg, Al Mojeb denied the suspects’ rights were violated. All had access to legal council and some did retain lawyers, though many chose to settle voluntarily without outside representation, he said. Those released faced no restrictions on their movement, he said.

     

  • Paul Craig Roberts Slams The NSA: "It's A Blackmail Agency"

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

    The main function of the National Security Administration is to collect the dirt on members of the house and senate, the staffs, principal contributors, and federal judges.

     

     

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    The dirt is used to enforce silence about the crimes of the security agencies.

    The blackmail mechanism was put into gear the minute the news reported that the House Intelligence Committee had assembled proof that the FBI, DOJ, and DNC created Russiagate as a conspiracy to unseat President Trump. Members of Congress with nothing to hide demanded the evidence be released to the public.

    Of course, it was to be expected that release of the facts would be denounced by Democrats, but Republicans, such as Rep. Mike Conaway (R, Texas), himself a member of the committee, joined in the effort to protect the Democrats and the corrupt FBI and DOJ from exposure. Hiding behind national security concerns, Conaway opposes revealing the classified information. “That’d be real dangerous,” he said.

    As informed people know, 95% of the information that is classified is for purposes that have nothing to do with national security.

    The House Intelligence Committee memo has no information in it related to any security except that of Comey, Brennan, Clapper, Hillary, Obama, Mueller, Rosenstein, Peter Strzok, Lisa Page, the DNC, and the presstitute media.

    The logical assumption is that every member of Congress opposed to informing the American public of the Russiagate conspiracy to unseat the President of the United States is being blackmailed by the security agencies who planned, organized, and implemented the conspiracy against the President of the United States and American democracy.

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    American insouciance is a great enabler of the ability of the security agencies and their media whores to control the explanations.

  • "I Have To Apologize" – Contrite Pope Sorry For Accusing Child Sex-Abuse Victims Of Lying

    A day after Pope Francis ended his trip to Chile by publicly defending a bishop who victims have accused of covering up widespread pedophilia in the country, by attacking the credibility of child sex abuse victims in a shocking move made at the end of a trip which he had hoped to ‘heal’ the wounds of said abuse, The Holy See has stunned Catholics again… and apologized.

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    As we detailed over the weekend Associated Press reported that Francis made the shocking comments in a discussion about Rev. Fernando Karadima who has been found guilty of sexually abusing a slew of minors as a member of the Catholic Church.

    Pope Francis accused victims of Chile’s most notorious pedophile of slander Thursday, an astonishing end to a visit meant to help heal the wounds of a sex abuse scandal that has cost the Catholic Church its credibility in the country.

    “The day I see proof against Bishop Barros, then I will talk. There is not a single piece of evidence against him. It is all slander. Is that clear?” the pope replied in a snippy tone.

    The pope’s remarks drew shock from Chileans and immediate rebuke from victims and their advocates. They noted the accusers were deemed credible enough by the Vatican that it sentenced Karadima to a lifetime of “penance and prayer” for his crimes in 2011.

    A Chilean judge also found the victims to be credible, saying that while she had to drop criminal charges against Karadima because too much time had passed, proof of his crimes wasn’t lacking.

    And now, as Reuters reports, Pope Francis, in an extremely rare act of self-criticism, apologised to victims of clerical sex abuse on Sunday, acknowledging he had “wounded many” in comments defending a Chilean bishop who is under scrutiny.

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    However, while the pope was sorry for his choice of words, he hastily added that he was certain that the prelate, Juan Barros, who has been accused of being complicit in the cover-up of the disgusting acts, was innocent.

    “I have to apologise,” an unusually contrite pope told reporters aboard the plane returning to Rome from a week-long trip to Chile and Peru, saying he realised he had “wounded many people who were abused”.

    “I apologise to them if I hurt them without realising it, but it was a wound that I inflicted without meaning to,” he said. “It pains me very much.”

    But, in the latest twist to a saga that has gripped Chile, Francis said Barros, who is accused of protecting a notorious paedophile, would remain in his place in the diocese of Osorno because there currently was no credible evidence against him.

    Francis said on the plane: “I know how much they (abuse victims) suffer in hearing the pope say to them ‘bring me a letter with the proof,’ I realise that it is a slap in their faces, and now I realise that my expression was an unfortunate one”.

    In his comments on the plane, the pope disclosed that Barros had offered to resign twice in recent years but Francis rejected the offers.

    “I can’t condemn him because I don’t have evidence and because I am convinced he is innocent,” Francis said.

    He said Barros would remain in his place unless credible evidence is found against him.

    Juan Carlos Claret, a spokesman for anti-Barros Catholics in Osorno, southern Chile, said during the trip that he worried the pope’s response to the reporter before the apology would discourage more victims from speaking out.

    “What incentive will victims have to come forward when even if the courts and the Vatican have said they are right, in the end the pope says they are pure lies?” he said in an telephone interview.

    #SeeToo?

  • FBI Agents Discussed "Secret Society" Within DOJ And FBI Working To Undermine Trump

    Congressional investigators learned from a new batch of text messages between anti-Trump FBI investigators that a “secret society of folks” within the Department of Justice and the FBI may have come together in the “immediate aftermath” of the 2016 election to undermine President Trump, according to Rep. John Ratcliffe (R-TX) who has reviewed the texts.

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    The new texts were included in a 384-page DOJ document release to Congressional investigators last Friday – during which Congress was notified in the cover letter that that five months of text messages from December 14, 2016 to May 17, 2017 have gone missing (If only the NSA had copies). 

    Ratcliffe was joined by Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-SC) to discuss the latest developments with Fox News host Martha McCallum, when Ratcliffe said: 

    What we learned today in the thousands of text messages that weve reviewed that perhaps they may not have done that (checked their bias at the door). There’s certainly a factual basis to question whether or not they acted on that bias. We know about this insurance policy that was referenced in trying to prevent Donald Trump from becoming president.

    We learned today from information that in the immediate aftermath of his election that there may have been a secret society of folks within the Department of Justice and the FBI to include Page and Strzok to be working against him.

    Watch: 

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    Rep. Gowdy deflected a question over a second special counsel, but mentioned “a text about not keeping texts,” and “more manifest bias against President Trump all the way through the election into the transition,” and finally Gowdy said he saw a text that “Director Comey was going to update the President of the United States about an investigation” which would have been Obama – and may, Gowdy speculates, have been about the Trump team.

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    Regarding the “secret society,” Gowdy said “You have this insurance policy in Spring 2016, and then the day after the election, what they really didn’t want to have happen, there is a text exchange between these two FBI agents, these supposed to be fact-centric FBI agents saying, ‘Perhaps this is the first meeting of the secret society.’ So I’m going to want to know what secret society you are talking about, because you’re supposed to be investigating objectively the person who just won the electoral college. So yeah — I’m going to want to know.”

    As we have been reporting over the last two days, the FBI “lost” five months of text messages between anti-Trump FBI agents Peter Strzok and Lisa Page. 

    The explanation for the gap was “misconfiguration issues related to rollouts, provisioning, and software upgrades that conflicted with the FBI’s collection capabilities.

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    The missing texts conveniently span the period between Dec. 14, 2016 and May 17, 2017 – the day Robert Mueller was appointed to take over the FBI’s probe of alleged Trump-Russia collusion, and during the period in which the FBI would ostensibly have been hard at work on their “insurance policyagainst a Trump victory – and during the period in which the “secret society” Rep. Ratcliffe referred to would have been hard at work

    A controversy also emerged following the revelation over the missing “textgate” – in that the DOJ’s internal investigative unit, the Office of the Inspector General (OIG) wrote a letter in December of last year specifically stating that they had obtained text messages from Strzok and Page covering the “missing” period revealed last Friday. 

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    Alas, it appears the Inspector General Michael Horowitz made this statement in error, as Attorney General Jeff Sessions said in a Monday statement that Horrowitz was in fact the one who discovered the FBI’s system failed to retain text messages for approximately 5 months,” which was confirmed by Fox News. 

    A Justice Department spokesperson told Fox News that the Departments Office of Inspector General also does not have any text messages between the two during that time period.

    Not to worry – the DOJ, known for its honesty, will leave “no stone unturned.”

  • "We Can't Pretend Interest Payments Aren't Rising Anymore…"

    Authored by Sven Henrich via NorthmanTrader.com,

    Is anyone paying attention? I don’t know, but the cost of carrying debt has been rising and it’s already showing measurable impacts despite the Fed Funds rate still being very low.

    My concern of course is that the global debt construct will bring global growth to a screeching halt (see also The Debt Beneath).

    As the 10 year is already piercing above the 2.6% area now I want to pay attention to the data coming in as the Fed is dot plotting more rate hikes to come:

    After all the Fed has hiked 5 times off the bottom floor in the past 2 years:

    Can we see any measurable impact? You bet we can.

    Here are personal interest payments for consumers:

    Mind you we are still near the lows of the previous cycle and already total interest payments are near record highs.

    The driver of course is record consumer debt and credit card debt (see also macro charts). But despite rates still being historically low this rise in interest rates has an impact on the consumer.

    Already we see this:

    “The big four US retail banks sustained a near 20 per cent jump in losses from credit cards in 2017, raising doubts about the ability of consumers to fuel economic expansion. “People are using their cards to get from pay cheque to pay cheque,” said Charles Peabody, managing director at the Washington-based investment group Compass Point. “There’s an underlying deterioration in the ability of the consumer to keep up with their debt service burden.” Recently disclosed results showed Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo took a combined $12.5bn hit from soured card loans last year, about $2bn more than a year ago.”

    I repeat: “There’s an underlying deterioration in the ability of the consumer to keep up with their debt service burden.”

    That’s a problem given the Fed’s dot plot. Before you know it consumers will be handing over a good portion of their tax cuts to credit card companies. Winning.

    Is the government carrying record debt immune to this? Nope.

    Here’s the latest monthly Treasury statement:

    Interest on debt alone was $32B for 1 month.

    During the same month the year prior it was $25B:

    That’s a 28% increase year over year. Perhaps the data is lumpy month to month, we’ll see confirmation in the next few months. But much of this US government debt has to be refinanced in the next few years, meaning it will be subject to much higher rates and the US needs to continue to add to its debt to keep itself financed..

    Indeed the recent tax cuts only exacerbate an already existing debt sale schedule:

    “Economists with Deutsche Bank expect the extra debt the Treasury must issue to fund President Donald Trump’s tax package and the amount of debt the Federal Reserve plans to redeem at maturity this year will bloat issuance to about $1tn in 2018. That’s up more than 50 per cent from a year earlier and, when coupled with a 30 per cent rise in the amount of corporate debt that’s due to mature, leaves questions of who the eventual buyer will be.

    A good question indeed.

    That’s a lot of debt issuance:

    Somebody has to buy it or the pain is real:

    “If demand for US fixed income doesn’t double over the coming years then US long rates will move higher, credit spreads will widen, the dollar will fall, and stocks will probably go down as foreigners move out of depreciating US assets,” Torsten Sløk, an economist with the bank, said.

    No, we can all pretend rising rates don’t have an impact, we can also pretend deficits don’t matter, and we can also pretend money grows on trees.

    But we can’t pretend interest payments aren’t rising. Because they are. Right now.

  • Tokyo Holds "First Ever" Missile Attack Drills

    Two months ago, we reported that Hawaii was restoring an air raid warning system that hadn’t been operational since the Cold War. Only this time, it’s due to the rising tensions between the US and North Korea…

    Indeed, these tensions nearly caused a panic last week when one employee at Hawaii’s Emergency Management Agency accidentally selected the wrong dropdown menu choice, broadcasting a “Ballistic Missile Threat” warning to the cellphones of Hawaii residents.

    On Monday, Tokyo activated the government’s “J-alert” system in a drill for the public to practice their response to a missile strike, RT reported. Once activated, the system warned people to “evacuate calmly inside a building or underground.”

    Video of the response showed people filing into a subway station…

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    Around 350 people participated in the first of its kind evacuation drill, which took place in Tokyo’s Bunkyo Ward, as well as a local amusement park. People sheltered in a nearby subway station and buildings, according to local media.

    Last year, North Korea memorably launched several moderate-range ballistic missiles over the Northern Japanese island of Hokkaido. 

     

    Tokyo

    However, the exercise made some Japanese people uncomfortable: A small group of protesters denounced the drills claiming they promoted Japanese militarism. One protester told the media that the exercises merely provided the illusion of safety – in the event of a nuclear strike, nobody in the blast zone would survive.

    Japan’s first-ever drills for the evacuation of Japanese civilians were conducted in March of last year in the coastal city of Oga. Japanese authorities have warned that a missile launched by North Korea could reach Japan in 10 minutes…

  • Las Vegas Update: Irregularities Cause Story Behind Massacre To Stink To High Heaven

    Authored by Jon Hall via Free Market Shooter blog,

    Months ago, I called for scrutiny amid a constantly-revolving news cycle concerning the Las Vegas massacre that occurred last October.

     

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    The victims of the Las Vegas massacre.

    64-year-old Stephen Paddock opened fire on a country music festival from the 32nd floor of the Mandalay Bay hotel, which overlooked the festival venue. Paddock’s onslaught left 58 dead and 546 injured.

     

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    Sadly, despite being the worst mass-shooting in U.S. history, the story has long since been abandoned by any traditional media outlets. A slow and ebbing trickle of developments have transpired despite the story dropping off of the radar…

    For instance, in late December, the chief of the FBI’s Las Vegas office, Aaron Rouse, revealed the agency likely wouldn’t brief the public concerning the massacre until their official report was released sometime around the one-year anniversary of the tragedy.

    Speaking with the Las Vegas Review-Journal, Rouse detailed:

    Paddock’s motivation has not been linked to any sort of affiliation or ideology, and evidence still suggests the gunman had no co-conspirators… FBI investigators have about 22,000 hours of surveillance and cellphone footage to comb through, along with about 250,000 separate photos… Local and federal authorities have to sift through about 40 terabytes of data.

    At the turn of the new year, it was revealed that Mandalay Bay staff – where Paddock had been staying – had at least 10 interactions with him during his stay.

    Paddock’s huge arsenal of guns and thousands of rounds of ammunition somehow wasn’t noticed throughout 10 interactions with hotel staff – an immediate answer is needed as to how.

    Court documents unsealed a week ago reveal that Marilou Danley, Paddock’s girlfriend, told authorities that they would likely find her fingerprints on some of the bullets used during the massacre because she helped Paddock load ammunition into magazines.

    Although claiming she had no prior knowledge of Paddock’s plans, Danley deleted her Facebook account at 2:46 a.m. on the night of the massacre, just hours after Paddock began firing at 10:08 p.m. 

    FBI agents also knew Paddock left behind caches of guns, ammunition, and explosives when they sought warrants before searching his properties. Oddities in Paddock’s online behavior were also noticed. As reported by Fox News:

    The documents said Paddock had received an email from a Gmail account in July encouraging him to try an AR-style rifle before buying one. “We have huge selection” in the Las Vegas area, the email allegedly noted.

    Paddock wrote back that he wanted to try several scopes and different types of ammunition. An email in response suggested trying a bump stock on the rifle with a 100-round magazine.

    Paddock’s email address and the Gmail address had similar names, leading investigators to suspect that he may have been emailing himself, although they couldn’t figure out why.

    Over the weekend, the trickle of developments continued, with Fox News revealing Paddock had child porn his computer… but last we knew, the hard drive to Paddock’s computer was missing.

    Furthermore, after months of claims and explanations by authorities that Paddock was a “lone gunman”, Fox5 of Las Vegas revealed that Metro Police confirmed they’re unable to release further details on the case because “there are still suspects being investigated”. 

    Even after months of being ignored by the mainstream media, the story still doesn’t add up.

     

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    The Las Vegas shooting investigation – with only four months of radio silence from authorities to show after the horrific incident and no clear answers – is still as murky as ever with no clear sign of when the veil will drop… if ever.

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Today’s News 22nd January 2018

  • In Shocking Interview, Macron Admits France Would Vote To Leave EU If Referendum Held

    When Marine Le Pen lost last year’s French presidential election to Emmanuel Macron in what appeared to be a landslide, the establishment breathed a sigh of relief because not only was the notorious Eurosceptic populist defeated, but also the wind appeared to be turning, and after a tumultuous 2016, 2017 started off with a bang for the unelected Eurocrats in Brussels. After all, the people had spoken and they wanted more Europe (and Euro), not less.

    Or maybe not.

    The French president sent shockwaves across Europe after he conceded that French voters would quit the EU if France held an in/out referendum on continued membership in the Brussels-led bloc. Not surprisingly no other EU country has risked putting membership of the bloc to a public vote since Britain shocked member-states by voting to leave the bloc in 2016, despite polls which showed virtually no possibility of such an outcome.

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    Macron admitting that he would lose a French EU membership referendum.

    In an interview with BBC’s Andrew Marr, Emmanuel Macron admitted that he would lose a French referendum on EU membership. Asked about the Brexit vote, the candid president told Marr:

    “I am not the one to judge or comment on the decision of your people.” But, he added “my interpretation is that a lot of the losers of globalisation suddenly decided it was no more for them.”

    Marr then pushed the French president, regarded by many as the EU’s new leader, on whether Britain’s decision was a one-off. Quoted by Express, the BBC journalist asked: “If France had had the same referendum, it might have had the same result?”

    Macron responded: “Yes, probably, probably. Yes. In a similar context. But we have a very different context in France” although he said he would not make it easy: “I wouldn’t take any bet though – I would have fought very hard to win.

    “My understanding is that middle classes and working classes and the oldest decided that the recent decades were not in their favor, and the adjustments made by the EU were not in their favour.”

    “I think the organization of EU went too far with freedom without cohesion, free markets without rules.”

    The French leader hit out at David Cameron for holding a referendum with a simple yes / no response on membership, instead of asking how to improve the situation.

    * * *

    Predictably, Twitter lit up after the interview was aired, with many questioning if the French leader had just admitted that he “does not listen to his own people” since he has refused to hold a referendum on the EU. For the sake of Europe’s unelected establishment, president Macron and the “European recovery”, one hopes we don’t find out any time soon…

  • New Trump Ad For Wall: Democrats "Complicit" In All Murders By Illegal Immigrants

    Hours after the government shutdown that the White House blamed on “obstructionist losers” who are holding government funding “hostage…over an unrelated immigration debate,” The Trump campaign posted an explosive new advertisement to the campaign website and YouTube channel on Saturday, featuring 37-year-old illegal immigrant Luis Bracamontes who killed two police deputies in 2014 after having been deported and returned to the U.S. multiple times.

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    Bracamontes showed no remorse in court proceedings which began in California last week – stating that his only regret was that he didn’t kill more police officers. His wife also faces charges in the killings.

    Along with the ad, the White House also issued a press release entitled:

    DEMOCRATS “COMPLICIT” IN ALL MURDERS BY ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS

    Both the video and press release can be viewed below (emphasis added): 

    New York, NY – Hours after Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer led Democrats to shut down the federal government, holding lawful citizens hostage over their demands for amnesty for illegal immigrants, Donald J. Trump for President, Inc. released a campaign ad calling out Democrats “who stand in our way” of progress and who are “complicit in every murder committed by illegal immigrants.”

    The ad, titled “Complicit,” profiles an illegal immigrant on trial for the murder of two Sacramento police officers who stated his “only regret” is that he “just killed two” and that he wished he “killed more.” It contrasts Democrats, who stand by those who commit acts of “pure evil,” versus President Trump, who was elected to build a wall to stop illegal immigration and keep American families safe.

    The Trump Campaign released the ad on the one-year anniversary of Donald Trump’s Inauguration as the 45th President of the United States. The powerful new ad reflects the stakes in the illegal immigration debate, and the reasons why the President will not allow the Schumer Shutdown to force his hand and grant amnesty for illegal immigrants.

    Donald Trump was elected President to build the wall and keep American families safe from evil, illegal immigrants who commit violent crimes against lawful U.S. citizens,” said Michael S. Glassner, Executive Director of Donald J. Trump for President, Inc. “Yet, one year after President Trump’s Inauguration, Chuck Schumer and the Democrats continue to put the interests of illegal immigrants over those of Americans. Our new campaign ad draws attention to the stark contrast between ‘complicit’ Democrats and the President for his full commitment to build a wall and fix our border to protect Americans from drugs, murder and other atrocities,” he concluded.

     

  • "Make Trade, Not War" Is China's Daring Plan In The Middle East

    Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Asia Times,

    Under the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing aims to connect western China to the eastern Mediterranean…

     

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    China’s “Go West” strategy was brought into sharp focus at a forum in Shanghai last weekend. Billed as the Belt and Road Initiative: Towards Greater Cooperation between China and the Middle East, it highlighted key aspects of Beijing’s wider plan.

    The New Silk Roads, or the Belt and Road Initiative, involve six key economic corridors, connecting Asia, the Middle East, North Africa and Europe. One, in particular, extends through the Middle East to North Africa. This is where the Belt and Road meets MENA or the Middle East and North Africa.

    Of course, Beijing’s massive economic project goes way beyond merely exporting China’s excess production capacity. That is part of the plan, along with building selected industrial bases in MENA countries by using technical and production expertise from the world’s second-largest economy.

    Again, this is will connect western China to the eastern Mediterranean. It will mean developing a corridor through projects such as the Red Med railway. There are also plans to expand ports, such as Oman’s Duqm, as well as substantial investment in Turkey.

     

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    Belt and Road Initiative. Illustration: iStock

    A look at the numbers tells a significant part of the story. In 2010, China-Arab trade was worth US$145 billion. By 2014, it had reached $250 billion and rising. China is now the largest exporter to assorted MENA nations, while MENA accounts for 40% of Beijing’s oil imports.

    The next stage surrounding energy will be the implementation of a maze of LNG, or liquefied natural gas, pipelines, power grids, power plants and even green projects, sprouting up across the new Silk Road corridors and transit routes.

    According to the Asian Development Bank, the myriad of Belt and Road infrastructure projects for the next 15 years could hit a staggering $26 trillion. Other less grandiose figures come in at $8 trillion during the next two decades.

    The ongoing internationalization of the yuan will be key in the process as will the role of the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).

    Naturally, there will be challenges. Belt and Road Initiative projects will have to create local jobs, navigate complex public and private partnerships along with intractable geopolitical wobbles.

    Enseng Ho, a professor from the Asia Research Institute at the National University of Singapore, is one of an army of researchers studying how historical links will play an important role in this new configuration.

    An excellent example is the city of Yiwu in Zhejiang province. This has become a mecca for merchant pilgrims from Syria or east Africa and has profited the region, according to the Zhejiang provincial government.

    In a wider Middle East context, Beijing’s aim is to harness, discipline and profit from what can be considered an Industrialization 2.0 process. The aim is to help oil producers, such as Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Gulf states, diversify away from crude.

    There is also reconstruction projections elsewhere, with China deeply involved in the commercial renaissance of post-war Syria.

    As well as investing in its own future energy security, Beijing is keen to put together other long-term strategic investments.

    Remixing the centuries-old Chinese trade connections with the Islamic world fits into the Globalization 2.0 concept President Xi Jinping rolled out at last year’s World Economic Forum in the Swiss ski resort of Davos.

    But then, Beijing’s strategy is to avoid a geopolitical collision in the Middle East. Its aim is to: Make Trade, Not War.

    From the United States’ point of view, the National Security Strategy document highlighted how China and Russia are trying to shape a new geopolitical environment in the region, which contrasts sharply from Washington’s aims and interests.

    It pointed out that while Russia is trying to advance its position as the leading political and military power broker, China is pushing ahead with a “win, win” economic policy. In 2016, that was spelt out in Beijing’s first Arab Policy paper, with its emphasis on bilateral trade cooperation, joint development projects and military exchanges.

    Since geopolitical wobbles are never far below the surface in the Middle East, China has even suggested it would be willing to act as a mediator between intractable rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia.

    Indeed, diplomacy is a key card for Beijing, according to Zhao Tingyang, a noted philosopher, at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

    In his 2006 paper, entitled Rethinking Empire from a Chinese Concept “All-Under-Heaven”, Zhao argued that the country show follow a principle of harmony based loosely on the Confucian notion of “all under heaven” or Tianxia in Mandarin.

    Confucius, one would imagine, would be pleased by the Belt and Road Initiative. You could call it: “Make Trade, Not War All Under Heaven.”

  • "Brazen Plot To Exonerate Hillary Clinton" And Frame Trump Unraveling, Says Former Fed Prosecutor

    A former Federal Prosecutor sat down with The Daily Caller to give perhaps the most comprehensive rundown of the Obama Administration’s “brazen plot to exonerate Hillary Clinton” and “frame an incoming president with a false Russian conspiracy.” 

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    In this highly recommended 30 minute interview with Joe diGenova, the former Special Counsel who went after both the Teamsters and former NY Governor Elliot Spitzer, paints a very clear picture of collusion is painted between the Obama administration, the FBI, the Clinton campaign and opposition research firm Fusion GPS.

    From the Daily Caller:

    The FBI used to spy on Russians. This time they spied on us. what this story is about – a brazen plot to exonerate Hillary Clinton from a clear violation of the law with regard to the way she handled classified information with her classified server. Absolutely a crime, absolutely a felony. It’s about finding out why – as the Inspector General is doing at the department of justice – why Comey and the senior DOJ officials conducted a fake criminal investigation of Hillary Clinton. Followed none of the regular rules, gave her every break in the book, immunized all kinds of people, allowed the destruction of evidence, no grand jury, no subpoenas, no search warrant. That’s not an investigation, that’s a Potemkin village. It’s a farce. 

    And everybody knew it was a farce. The problem was, she didn’t win. And because she didn’t wain, the farce became a very serious opera. It wasn’t a comic opera anymore, it was a tragic opera. And she was going to be the focus. 

    What this is about, this is about a lavabo, a cleansing of FBI and the upper echelons of the Department of Justice. 

    We’re going to discover that the Attorney General, Loretta Lynch, her deputy Sally Yates, the head of the national security division John Carlin, Bruce Ohr and other senior DOJ officials, and regrettably, lying attorneys. People who were senior career civil servants violated the law, perhaps committed crimes, and covered up crimes by a presidential candidate – but more than that, they tried to frame an incoming president with a false Russian conspiracy that never existed, and they knew it, and they plotted to ruin him as a candidate and then destroy him as a president. That’s why this is important. That’s why connecting the dots is important. 

    DiGenova condemned the FBI for working so closely with the controversial Fusion GPS, a political hit squad paid by the DNC and Clinton campaign to create and spread the discredited Steele dossier about President Donald Trump. Without a justifiable law enforcement or national security reason, he says, the FBI “created false facts so that they could get surveillance warrants. Those are all crimes.” He adds, using official FISA-702 “queries” and surveillance was done “to create a false case against a candidate, and then a president.” –Daily Caller

    During the interview, DiGenova holds up and references a previously unreported and heavily redacted 99-page FISA court opinion from April, 2017, which “describes systematic and on-going violations of the law [by the FBI and their contractors using unauthorized disclosures of raw intelligence on Americans]. This is stunning stuff.” 

    NSA Admiral Mike Rodgers: An American Hero

    diGenova also discusses the immense risks taken by retiring NSA director, Mike Rogers – who briefed Trump on Nov. 7, 2016 about the Obama administration’s surveillance of the Trump team. The next day, the Presidental transition team was moved out of Trump tower and into the president-elect’s Bedminster, NJ golf course until they could sweep for bugs. 

    Uranium One and other matters

    Also discussed in the interview are the Uranium One scandal, Mueller’s “tainted” probe, and the consequences of the Democrats regaining control in the November midterms – which would most certainly lead to an effort to impeach Trump. 

    “It’s important for the House to complete its work now,” says diGenova. 

    * * *

    The 99-page FISA court opinion is below (link)

  • 200 Million Investors May Have Lost Everything In Largest Ponzi Scheme In China's History

    China has had its share of ponzi-like investment scheme blow ups in the past, most recently last April  as we described in “Investors Rage After 3 Billion Yuan Vanish From China’s Largest Private Bank” and previously in “Chinese Investors Find Out They Got Fleeced By A $7 Billion Ponzi Scheme.” But nothing quite like this, and no, it does not involve cryptocurrencies.

    According to the Asia Times, at the height of its business operations, online investment company, Qbao.com, had around 200 million registered users. With its “get rich quick” promises and tantalizing tales of up 80% returns, the company had a cult-like following with investors known as Baofen or fans of Qbao, not to mention potential clients clamoring to sign up for the financial firm’s products, leading to as many as 2 million new users every day in late 2017. Even the full name of the company, Qianbao, had the veneer of success, as it translates into “money treasure.

    Unfortunately for up to 200 millions ordinary Chinese, dreams of overnight riches became a nightmare when the founder of the site, Zhang Xiaolei, was placed in police custody after turning himself in just before the start of the new year.

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    Zhang Xiaolei, founder of Qbao.com, the online platform also known as Qianbao

    He has been accused of illegally raising 70 billion yuan or some $11 billion, according to sources close to the Chinese authorities and reported in the mainland media. If those allegations are true, this would be the largest online investment fraud in China’s history.

    “This shows the reality that many Chinese people are still short of money and are crazy for high-returning investment channels,” Li Chao, an analyst at market consultancy iResearch in Beijing, told the state-owned Global Times.

    So “crazy” that they risk losing it all; indeed, that looks nearly certain after Zhang walked into a police station on Dec. 26 in Nanjing, the capital of East China’s Jiangsu province, where Qbao.com was wheeled out in a blaze of publicity nearly eight years ago.

    The authorities believe investors may have become the victims of a giant Ponzi-type scam, where new clients ended up paying inflated returns to established customers without their knowledge.  Before the internet investment company was closed down, it was attracting nearly two million users every day in late 2017 from its headquarters in Shanghai.

    “Police are calling on Qbao investors in all regions to report to local public security authorities and cooperate in investigations after the company owner, Zhang Xiaolei, was [held] in custody for suspicion of an illegal fundraising crime,” the company said in a statement.

    Meanwhile, investors are in denial: many clients are convinced this is all a massive mistake, even though the online finance industry has been plagued by scandals, as Chinese regulators struggle to get grips with the problem.

    In February 2016, a leading online peer-to-peer lending service, Ezubao, was accused of swindling  more than 900,000 investors out of more than 50 billion yuan in less than two years. A court in Beijing later sentenced Ding Ning, the architect of the $9 billion Ezubao online financial fraud, to life imprisonment, which finally closed the chapter on one of the biggest Ponzi schemes in modern mainland history.

    But if the allegations concerning Qbao.com and Zhang are true, this could dwarf that case.

    “I became very tired of comforting other investors, some of whom were so anxious that they nearly killed themselves,” Mu Qing, who became a Baofen investor, told Global Times. “But we all trusted Qbao, and we will wait [to see what happens].”

    On Dec. 27, along with millions of other clients, Mu had his account on Qao.com frozen.

    What happens next depends on the Chinese police investigation and the decision by the central bank to launch an inqury. It has ordered all commercial banks in Jiangsu province to roll out internal inspections for potential loans linked to Qbao.com or its affiliated companies.

    “Qbao investors put all their trust in Zhang,” one former executive of the company told Caixin’s media website. “It was like a cult.

    But that “trust” has slowly turned to disdain and anger as the details of Zhang’s online world trickles into the public domain. In the end, the fall out could leave them broke in more ways than one.

    Of course, investor denial will eventually turn to acceptance, but first comes the anger stage, and if indeed 200 million Chinese may have lost a substantial portion, if not all, of their net worth, the anger will be tangible and could prove to be a true black swan for a country which – as we have profiled since early 2016 – has been teetering on the verge of social unrest.

  • Nomi Prins: "The Fed Is Scared To Death Of Crashing The Global Financial System"

    Via Greg Hunter’s USA Watchdog blog,

    Two time, best-selling author Nomi Prins says central bankers have no idea how to stop the easy money policies that they started after the financial meltdown of 2008.

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    Prins explains, “So, when the Fed says they are going to remove assets from their $4.5 trillion book by not reinvesting the interest payment…the reality is they haven’t really done that.  They have reduced their book by about $10 billion off of $4.5 trillion since they mentioned they were going to start ‘tapering.” 

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    The media discusses this as a major tightening move.  Somehow all of our economies have finally worked because of central bank activity.  Growth is real.  It’s all positive.  The markets are evidence of that because of the levels they are at; and, therefore, these central banks, starting with the Fed, are going to reverse course of these last 10 years. 

    “The reality is if you look at the actual activity of the central banks, beyond the Fed raising rates by a little bit, there hasn’t been and there isn’t being a reversal of course because they are scared to death that too much of a reversal is going to cause a major crash throughout the financial system.

    Everything is connected.  All the banks are connected.  Money flows around the world in less than nanoseconds, and all of it has the propensity to collapse if that carpet the central banks have created is dragged from beneath the floor of all this activity.

    Prins, who just finished traveling the globe to research her upcoming book, thinks there is one big thing that can take the entire system down. Prins, a former top Wall Street banker, contends:

    There hasn’t been any real growth in the real economy.  That is an indication of the misfire of this entire plan.  There has been tremendous growth in stock markets and bond markets. 

    If you look at localities or states or governments whose debt to GDP levels are well over 100%, in Japan it’s over 200%, in the United States it over 100%, and this is the same throughout the world.  These are levels that they have never been, and they are all at their historic highs. 

    That’s why debt will ultimately be the destructor of the system.  In order for that to happen, the cheapness of money that allow states, municipalities and corporations to continue to borrow at these cheap levels has to go away…

    At some point, there will be a mistake.  There might be a tiny smidge of an interest rate hike at some central bank, probably the Fed, which ripples throughout the system as a mistake, not because real growth has happened, and that’s why interest rates have been raised.  That will incur defaults throughout the system.  People will incur personal defaults, and that will cause problems in the mortgage market… then it becomes a knock-on credit crisis, and then banks start not to lend… Then we have the makings of a broad crisis.”

    Prins doesn’t think we get a crash in 2018, but warns when the markets crash, “they will come down fast.”

    So, how is Prins protecting herself?

    Prins says,

    I’m buying gold… I would also be a buyer of silver because silver is a used hard asset, and it’s at really cheap levels right now.  I would be a buyer as a percentage of my portfolio.  I have done exactly what I am telling you is a good idea to do, which is to take money from the stock market and put it into hard assets.

    Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Nomi Prins, author of the upcoming book titled “Collusion: How Central Bankers Rigged the World.”

    *  *  *

    After the Interview:

    You can find free information and analysis from Nomi Prins at NomiPrins.com. Prins is giving USAWatchdog.com viewers a special link to buy her new book at a hefty discount. 

    Prins says this pre-order link will give USAWatchdog.com buyers of “Collusion: How Central Bankers Rigged the World” a 40% discount up until it officially releases on May 1, 2018.

  • No Deal: Government Shutdown To Continue For 3rd Day As Senate Sets Monday Noon Vote

    Any hope that the 2-day government shutdown could be suddenly resolved with an early morning vote on Monday morning died moments ago when Chuck Schumer said “there is no deal” while Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said he is canceling the previously scheduled 1am procedural vote and instead the Senate will vote on the stopgap spending bill at noon Eastern on Monday, with the government set to remain closed at least until the vote.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    McConnell also said that his intention is to resolve several issues including immigration as quickly as possible, and to move to DACA on Feb. 8 if no deal has been done by then and govt stays open.

    Meanwhile, the Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer, objecting to earlier vote timing, said “we have yet to reach an agreement on path forward.”

    As discussed earlier, a flurry of activity on Capitol Hill had stoked hopes that a deal to end the shutdown might be reached before furloughs for hundreds of thousands of government workers kick in on Monday. Instead, the Senate is now set to vote at noon on Monday to end debate on a measure that would fund the government through Feb. 8.

    Furthermore, by the looks of things…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    … this shutdown may indeed continue “for weeks” as Goldman predicted on Friday. And while the market may not care for now, should the funding gap extend into late February and early March, just days ahead of the debt ceiling X-Date, the S&P will – sooner or later – be reacquainted with gravity.

    Even on Monday, it remains unclear if there will be 60 votes to end debate, given opposition from Senate Democrats to the measure. And, as explained yesterday, without a drop in the stock market to “mediate” and force politicians to negotiate, the question now is how deeply the two sides will dig in further as the work week begins.

    Finally, for those wondering if there was any reaction in the market to the ongoing shutdown news, the answer: of course not.

     

    asd

  • 15 Year Old Hacker Impersonated CIA Director And Other High Ranking Officials In Massive Data Breach

    A 15-year-old “hacktivist” who tricked AOL and Verizon customer support operators into believing he was then-CIA Director John Brennan, was able to crack into Brennan’s accounts and access highly sensitive documents concerning US military and intelligence operations in Afghanistan and Iran, a UK court has heard. 

    asd
    Kane Gamble AKA “Cracka”

    Kane Gamble, now 18, was able to access Brennan’s emails, contacts, and his iCloud storage account after several successful attempts to manipulate information out of the call center employees. Brennan’s emails were sent to WikiLeaks and published on October 26, 2015.

    Gamble used similar “social engineering” techniques to gain accdess to former Secretary of Homeland Security Jeh Johnson, former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, tricked the FBI helpdesk into believing he was then-Deputy Director Mark Giuliano.

    It was a common misconception that the group were hackers when in fact they used “social engineering” to gain access to emails, phones, computers and law enforcement portals.

    It involves manipulating people, invariably call centre or help desk staff, into permitting acts or divulging confidential information,” the prosecutor said. –Telegraph

    Gamble founded the five-man hacktivist group “Crackas With Attitude” (CWA) – telling a Journalist “It all started by me getting more and more annoyed about how corrupt and cold blooded the US Government are so I decided to do something about it.” The 15-year old then proceeded to unleash mayhem on his victims to “fuck the gov” according to court records, by taunting them online, downloading pornography onto their computers, and even taking control of their iPads and TV screens. 

    Gamble used similar techniques to hack the home broadband of Jeh Johnson, the Secretary of Homeland Security, and was able listened to [sic] his voicemails and send texts from his phone.

    He bombarded Mr Johnson and his wife with calls, asking her: “Am I scaring you?” and left messages threatening to “bang his daughter”, the court heard.

    Sometime in October, 2015, the 16-year-old Gamble convinced the FBI’s help desk that the was Deputy Director Mark Giuliano – pretending to be the former FBI boss while using information he had obtained after accessing the FBI’s Law Enforcement Enterprise Portal (Leap). From this access, Gamble gained intelligence and details of government employees and police officers. Gamble then bombarded Giuliano’s family and associates with calls, forcing them to post an armed guard at their home. 

    “This has to be the biggest hack, I have access to all the details the Feds use for background checks.” –Kane Gamble

    Gamble pleaded guilty to ten violations of the UK’s computer misuse act in October, 2017. Two Americans charged with participating in Crackas With Attitude -computer science student Justin Liverman and Andrew Boggs, both of North Carolina – were arrested in 2016 and sentenced to five and two years in prison respectively after pleading guilty to criminal hacking conspiracy. 

    Court documents filed in the cases against Boggs and Liverman allege they conspired with “Cracka” to infiltrate the internet accounts of several senior U.S. officials and their families, causing more than $1.5 million in losses.

    Gamble admitted to setting his sights on other U.S. government targets including former President Barack Obama’s deputy national security adviser, Avril Haines, and his senior science and technology adviser, John Holdren, local media reported.-Washington Times

    At one point, the FBI realized that their system had been breached and the password was changed, but Gamble was able to regain access by calling the FBI helpdesk as Mr. Giuliano. The young hactivist also used his access to sensitive information to post the personal details of officer Darren Wilson, who shot and killed black teenager Michael Brown in Ferguson Missouri. 

    Gamble’s eight month cracking spree came to and end in February, 2016 after he accessed the details of 20,000 FBI employees from the DOJ’s network, as well as files on the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. The FBI and US Secret Service immediately called police in the UK and Gamble was arrested at his Leicestershire home he shared with his mother. 

    Gamble awaits sentencing at yet to be determined date. 

  • Central Bank Of Russia Adds A Record 223 Tons Of Gold In 2017

    Submitted by Louis Cammarosano  of Smaulgld

    The Russian Central Bank added 300,000 ounces (9.3 tons) of gold to its reserves in December, bringing the total acquisitions of the precious metal in 2017 to a record 223 tons.

    Since June 2015, the Central Bank of Russia has added over 558 tons of gold, and December’s 9.3 ton addition brings the official Russian gold holdings to 1838.211 tons; the sixth most of any nation, close behind the People’s Bank of China. In dollar terms, Russia’s gold reserves are now worth $76.647 billion and constitute 17.7% of overall Russian reserves.

    Meanwhile, Russian holdings of U.S. Treasuries were just above $100 billion for eighth month in a row.

    The message – as Russia continues to add gold to its official reserves while keeping its holdings of US Treasurys generally unchanged – needs no explanation.

    asd

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Today’s News 21st January 2018

  • Republicans Have Four Easy Ways To #ReleaseTheMemo…Not Doing So Will Prove Them Shameless Frauds

    Authored by Glenn Greenwald and Jon Schwarz via The Intercept,

    One of the gravest and most damaging abuses of state power is to misuse surveillance authorities for political purposes. For that reason, The Intercept, from its inception, has focused extensively on these issues.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180120_memo.jpg

    We therefore regard as inherently serious strident warnings from public officials alleging that the FBI and Department of Justice have abused their spying power for political purposes. 

    Social media this week has been flooded with inflammatory and quite dramatic claims now being made by congressional Republicans about a four-page memo alleging abuses of Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act spying processes during the 2016 election. This memo, which remains secret, was reportedly written under the direction of the chair of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, GOP Rep. Devin Nunes, and has been read by dozens of members of Congress after the committee voted to make the memo available to all members of the House of Representatives to examine in a room specially designated for reviewing classified material.

    The rhetoric issuing from GOP members who read the memo is notably extreme.

    North Carolina Republican Rep. Mark Meadows, chair of the House Freedom Caucus, called the memo “troubling” and “shocking” and said, “Part of me wishes that I didn’t read it because I don’t want to believe that those kinds of things could be happening in this country that I call home and love so much.”

    GOP Rep. Scott Perry of Pennsylvania stated: “You think about, ‘Is this happening in America or is this the KGB?’ That’s how alarming it is.”

    This has led to a ferocious outcry on the right to “release the memo” – and presumably thereby prove that the Obama administration conducted unlawful surveillance on the Trump campaign and transition.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180120_memo1.jpg

    On Thursday night, Fox News host and stalwart Trump ally Sean Hannity claimed that the memo described “the systematic abuse of power, the weaponizing of those powerful tools of intelligence and the shredding of our Fourth Amendment constitutional rights.”

    Given the significance of this issue, it is absolutely true that the memo should be declassified and released to the public – and not just the memo itself. The House Intelligence Committee generally and Nunes specifically have a history of making unreliable and untrue claims (its report about Edward Snowden was full of falsehoods, as Bart Gellman amply documented, and prior claims from Nunes about “unmasking” have been discredited). Thus, mere assertions from Nunes — or anyone else — are largely worthless; Republicans should provide American citizens not merely with the memo they claim reveals pervasive criminality and abuse of power, but also with all of the evidence underlying its conclusions.

    President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans have the power, working together or separately, to immediately declassify all the relevant information. And if indeed the GOP’s explosive claims are accurate – if, as HPSCI member Steve King, R-Iowa, says, this is “worse than Watergate” — they obviously have every incentive to get it into the public’s hands as soon as possible. Indeed, one could argue that they have the duty to do so.

    On the other hand, if the GOP’s claims are false or significantly misleading – if they are, with the deepest cynicism imaginable, simply using these crucial issues to whip up their base or discredit the Mueller investigation, or exaggerating or making claims that lack any evidentiary support, or trying to have the best of all worlds by making explosive claims about the memo but never having to prove their truth – then they will either not release the memo or they will release it without any supporting documentation, making it impossible for Americans to judge its accuracy for themselves.

    Anyone who is genuinely concerned about the claims being made about eavesdropping abuses should understand why the issue of evidence is so critical. After all, the House, Senate, and FBI investigations into any Trump collusion with Russia have so far proceeded with many startling claims in the media, but to date little hard evidence for the public to judge. Nobody rational should be assuming any claims or assertions from partisan actors about the 2016 election are true without seeing evidence to substantiate those claims.

    The good news is there are at least four easy ways for congressional Republicans and/or Trump to definitively prove that all the right’s darkest suspicions about the Obama administration are true. If this memo and the underlying documents prove even a fraction of what GOP politicians and media figures are claiming about them, then what could possibly justify its ongoing concealment? Any or all of these methods should be promptly invoked to ensure that the public sees this evidence:

    1. Trump can declassify anything he wants.

    All classification by the U.S. government has no basis in laws passed by Congress (with one tiny exception that is irrelevant here). Rather, all classification is based on presidential executive orders, which rely on the president’s constitutional role as commander in chief of the armed forces. According to the Supreme Court, the presidential power “to classify and control access to information bearing on national security … flows primarily from the constitutional investment of power in the president.”

    That means presidents can also declassify anything they chose to — for any reason or no reason — as they have done in the past. George W. Bush, under pressure in 2004, declassified the section of the 2001 presidential daily brief headlined “Bin Laden Determined to Strike in U.S.” Barack Obama declassified the Justice Department memos produced during the Bush presidency on the legality of torture.

    Thus if the House Intelligence Committee merely releases a version of its memo without the supporting documentation, that won’t be just because they don’t want Americans to see it – it will be because Trump doesn’t want us to see it either. Note that GOP House members are insistent that releasing the memo and the underlying source material would not remotely harm national security:

     

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

     

    So what possible justification is there for Trump to continue to conceal this alleged evidence of massive criminality from the American people by hiding it behind “classified” designations? Indeed, it is illegal to abuse classified designations to hide evidence of official criminality: so not only can Trump declassify such evidence, one could argue that he must, or at least should.

    2. The House (and Senate) intelligence committees can declassify any material they possess.

    According to the procedural rules of both houses of Congress, their intelligence committees can declassify material in their possession if the committee votes that such declassification would be in the public interest. It is then declassified after five days unless the president formally objects. If the president does object, the full chamber votes on the question.

    It is true that – in a measure of how embarrassingly deferential Congress is to the executive branch – neither the House nor the Senate intelligence committees has ever utilized this power, so it’s impossible to know how this gambit would play out in practice. But if Trump refused to release proof of the Obama administration’s misdeeds, congressional Republicans should have a straightforward way to overrule him.

    3. The Constitution protects members of Congress from prosecution for “any speech or debate in either House.”

    Members of Congress have legal immunity for acts they commit as part of the legislative process. Article I, Section 6, clause 1 of the Constitution states that “for any speech or debate in either House, [Senators and Representatives] shall not be questioned in any other place.” It is this constitutional shield that protected Sen. Mike Gravel of Alaska from legal consequences in 1971 when he read sections of the Pentagon Papers during a meeting of the Senate Subcommittee on Public Buildings and Grounds, and then placed the rest of the Pentagon Papers into the Congressional Record.

    It’s true that members could face legal consequences for ancillary acts — perhaps if they unlawfully removed the relevant material from the congressional SCIF. But they could go to the House floor and describe both the memo’s revelations and the underlying evidence for it without any fear of legal consequences.

    If the memo really proves what they claim, it would seem to be their patriotic duty would compel them do this. Ordinary citizens — like Daniel Ellsberg, Edward Snowden, and Chelsea Manning — have risked prison in order to expose what they believed were serious official crimes; these members of Congress can do this without any of those consequences. So what justifies their failure to do this?

    4. Republicans can leak everything to the news media.

    If for some reason Trump and the congressional leadership refuse to use any of the above options to vindicate themselves, a brave member of Congress could turn whistleblower and transmit the classified proof of the GOP’s claims about the memo to the news media.

    Many outlets now have secure methods of sending sensitive material to them, such as Secure Drop. Those for The Intercept can be found here. (All leaking entails risks, as we describe in our manual for whistleblowers.)

    *  *  *

    So that’s that. All Americans, particularly conservatives, should ask every Republican making spectacular assertions about this memo when they will be using the above ways to conclusively demonstrate that everything they’ve said is based in rock-solid fact.

    If they do not, Republicans will conclusively demonstrate something else.

    They will prove conclusively that all of this is about them shamelessly making claims they do not actually believe, fraudulently posturing as caring about one of the most vital, fundamental issues facing the United States: how the U.S. government uses the vast surveillance powers with which it has been vested.

  • Who's Going To Davos

    This year’s edition of the World Economic Forum begins on Tuesday in the Swiss mountain resort of Davos.

    According to the organizers, some 3,000 visitors will attend this year’s meeting.

    As our infographic shows most of them come from the United States.

    Infographic: Who's Going to Davos | Statista

    You will find more statistics at Statista

    Well with the government shut down… there’s no money to be made in ‘Murica!

    Perhaps even more ironically, Bloomberg reports that President Trump’s Davos trip is “day-to-day” during the government shutdown.

    Mick Mulvaney, director of the Office of Management and Budget, said at a press briefing on Saturday that a final decision hasn’t been made on whether Trump will travel as planned, given the federal government shutdown that began overnight.

    The president is expected to arrive at Davos on Jan. 25 and make a speech to the forum on Jan. 26.

  • Google Has An Actual Secret Speech Police

    Authored by Peter Hasson via The Daily Caller,

    More than 100 nongovernment organizations (NGOs) and government agencies around the world help police YouTube for extremist content, ranging from so-called hate speech to terrorist recruiting videos.

    All of them have confidentiality agreements barring Google, YouTube’s parent company, from revealing their participation to the public, a Google representative told The Daily Caller on Thursday.

    A handful of groups, including the Anti-Defamation League and No Hate Speech, a European organization focused on combatting intolerance, have chosen to go public with their participation in the program, but the vast majority have stayed hidden behind the confidentiality agreements. Most groups in the program don’t want to be publicly associated with it, according to the Google spokesperson, who spoke only on background.

    YouTube’s “Trusted Flaggers” program goes back to 2012, but the program has exploded in size in recent years amid a Google push to increase regulation of the content on its platforms, which followed pressure from advertisers. Fifty of the 113 program members joined in 2017 as YouTube stepped up its content policing, YouTube public policy director Juniper Downs told a Senate committee on Wednesday.

    The third-party groups work closely with YouTube’s employees to crack down on extremist content in two ways, Downs said and a Google spokesperson confirmed. First, they are equipped with digital tools allowing them to mass flag content for review by YouTube personnel. Second, the partner groups act as guides to YouTube’s content monitors and engineers who design the algorithms policing YouTube but may lack the expertise needed to tackle a given subject.

    It’s not just terrorist videos that Google is censoring. Jordan B. Peterson, a professor known for opposing political correctness, had one of his videos blocked in 28 countries earlier this month. A note sent to Peterson’s account said YouTube had “received a legal complaint” about the video and decided to block it.

     

     

    Peterson used his large social media following to push back, calling out YouTube on Twitter, where he has more than 300,000 followers. YouTube reversed Peterson’s block after another popular YouTuber, Ethan Klein, demanded an explanation on Twitter, where he has more than 1 million followers. Although the original notice said that YouTube was responding to a legal complaint, on Twitter the company gave the impression that the block was erroneous.

     

     

    The overwhelming majority of the content policing on Google and YouTube is carried out by algorithms. The algorithms make for an easy rebuttal against charges of political bias: it’s not us, it’s the algorithm. But algorithms are designed by people. As noted above, Google’s anonymous outside partners work closely with the internal experts designing the algorithms. This close collaboration has upsides, Google’s representatives say, pointing to advances in combatting terrorist propaganda on the platform. But it also provides little transparency, forcing users to take Google’s word that they’re being treated fairly.

    YouTube’s partnership with outside organizations to combat extremist content is just one part of the company’s efforts to prioritize certain kinds of content over others. YouTube also suppresses certain content through its “restricted” mode, which screens out videos not suitable for children or containing “potentially mature” content, as well as by demonetizing certain videos and channels, cutting off the financial stream to their operators.

    Prager University, a conservative nonprofit that makes educational videos, sued Google in October for both putting their content in restricted mode and demonetizing it. Prager faces an uphill battle in court (as a private company, Google isn’t bound by the First Amendment) but the lawsuit has forced Google to take public positions on its censorship.

    The Google representative who spoke with TheDC said that it is the algorithms that are responsible for placing videos in restricted mode. But in court documents reviewed by TheDC, Google’s lawyers argued otherwise. “Decisions about which videos fall into that category are often complicated and may involve difficult, subjective judgment calls,” they argued in documents filed on Dec. 29.

    In her testimony before the Senate committee on Wednesday, Downs described some of the steps Google has taken to suppress “offensive” or “inflammatory” content that falls short of actual violent extremism.

    “Some borderline videos, such as those containing inflammatory religious or supremacist content without a direct call to violence or a primary purpose of inciting hatred, may not cross these lines for removal. But we understand that these videos may be offensive to many and have developed a new treatment for them,” she said.

    “Identified borderline content will remain on YouTube behind an interstitial, won’t be recommended, won’t be monetized, and won’t have key features including comments, suggested videos, and likes. Initial uses have been positive and have shown a substantial reduction in watch time of those videos,” she added.

    YouTube’s demonetization push, which is affecting some of the most popular non-leftist political channels, is meant to accommodate advertisers who seek to avoid controversial content, the Google spokesperson said.

    Dave Rubin, a popular YouTube host, has seen his videos repeatedly demonetized. Rubin posted a video, “Socialism isn’t cool,” on Wednesday. The video was up a little over 24 hours before YouTube demonetized it on Thursday.

     

     

    The video was later remonetized, a Google representative told TheDC. But users can’t recoup the advertising dollars they lost while their videos were erroneously demonetized.

    I suspect that there is some political bent to it but I don’t think it’s necessarily a grand conspiracy against conservatives or anyone who’s not a leftist. Part of the problem is their lack of transparency has created a situation where none of use really know what’s going on,” Rubin told TheDC.

    “Does it seem that it is more so affecting non-leftist channels? Yeah, it does.”

  • Baltimore's Top Cop Fired After Out-Of-Control Homicides

    Baltimore’s top cop was fired Friday after a record year in per-capita homicides that has transformed Maryland’s largest city into one of the most dangerous areas in the United States.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180120_balt1.png

    To put things in perspective, Baltimore’s murder rate is 4x the average of other large cities and some 40 percent higher than Detroit. To make matters worse, Baltimore is now precisely tied with Venezuela, a country suffering from an economic collapse at 57.2 murders per 100,000 residents.

     

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180120_balt2.jpg.png

    Mayor Catherine Pugh relieved Police Commissioner Kevin Davis of his duties after 2 1/2 years as top cop. Pugh, then announced that Deputy Commissioner Darryl DeSousa, who has been on the force for 30-years, will take Commissioner Kevin Davis‘ spot effective immediately.

     

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    “As I have made clear, reducing violence and restoring the confidence of our citizens in their police officers is my highest priority,” said Pugh.

    “The fact is, we are not achieving the pace of progress that our residents have every right to expect in the weeks since we ended what was nearly a record year for homicides in the City of Baltimore.”

    The fact the Pugh is achieving no progress at all should be disheartening to residents og Baltimore. The city closed out 2017 with 343 homicides, just shy of the 353 set back in 1993 when the city had 100,000 more residents. Last year, Baltimore hit a 100-year low in total population, as the city as a whole continues to shrink in size. On top of that, the city has experienced 50-years of failed Democratic leadership coupled with deindustrialization, which has turned the area into a war-zone. As shown below:

     

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180120_balt3.jpg

    Ex-Police Commissioner Kevin Davis was the 39th Police Commissioner in Baltimore since 2015. Davis, a fourth generation public safety professional, has been relieved of his duties in total shame, however, the chart below might provide evidence that Baltimore’s demise was a much larger trend that no public official could contain. Hence, why Pugh had to call in the federal government for assistance in 2017.

     

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180120_balt4.jpg

    Before Davis entered the top cop position, Baltimore was actually on a trajectory of being revived. All was well in charm city, as the millennials were singing the gentrifying tune with Kevin Plank. Johns Hopkins Hospital was gentrifying the eastern district of the town, and the University of Maryland was gentrifying the west side, the ole’ divide and conquer seemed to be working just fine.

    But something snapped in the city, right as Davis took the helm of the police force in 2015. Violent crime and homicides surged to levels not seen since the crack epidemic days of the late 1980s and early 1990s.

    So, what sparked the violent energy?

    Well, it was the Ferguson effect in 2014, which led to the Baltimore Riots in April of 2015. Community organizing groups from around the country sprinted into Baltimore and took advantage of the situation, as parts of the city burned to the ground. The governor called in the National Guard who shut down the city for one week with curfews and armed patrols.  It was argued by many, that Baltimore experienced some form of martial law in those 7-days of hell.  Nevertheless, the relationship between community and police evaporated, and that’s is when all hell broke out.

    Pugh is using Davis as a scapegoat to deflect the blame from City Hall. Davis was set up to fail at the start because the Ferguson effect blindsided the city. As soon as the relationship between community and police ended, the police scaled back on active policing. That is the moment the town entered into an irreversible death spin.

    A new police chief isn’t necessarily the answer unless there is a plan to restore the relationship between community and police, that community organized groups paid for by George Soros helped to destroy.

    The takedown of Baltimore has been a long-term trend, but as of recent, it was accelerated post-2015. As the city implodes on itself in 2018, the opioid crisis will be the needed energy to deliver the final death blow. As the city marches towards collapse, the likelihood of the firing of more top officials is strong for the remainder of the year.

    * * *

    To gain an understanding of what is next for Baltimore. Pay attention to the current developments in Sweden. Read: “Sweden Is Preparing For A “Civil War”: PM Wants To Deploy Army In No-Go Zones.

  • The FISA Memo Is All The Ammo Trump Needs To Take On The CIA

    Authored by Tom Luongo,

    FISA is an abomination. Let’s get that out of the way. And since I don’t believe there are any coincidences in U.S. or geo-politics, the releasing of the explosive four-page FISA memo after Congress reauthorized FISA is suspicious.

    Former NSA analyst (traitor? hero?) turned security state gadfly Edward Snowden came out in favor of President Trump vetoing the FISA reauthorization now that the full extent of what the statute is used for is known to members of the House Intelligence Committee, who are rightly aghast.

    Officials confirm there’s a secret report showing abuses of spy law Congress voted to reauthorize this week. If this memo had been known prior to the vote, FISA reauth would have failed. These abuses must be made public, and @realDonaldTrump should send the bill back with a veto. https://t.co/BEwJ9EyIq0

    — Edward Snowden (@Snowden) January 19, 2018

    But, like I said, timing in these things is everything. And the timing on this leak is important.

    Someone leaked this memo to the House Intelligence Committee with the sole intention of giving President Trump the opportunity to do exactly what Snowden is arguing for.

    And well Trump should. 

    This is the essence of draining the swamp.  It is the essence of his war with the Shadow Government.  If one makes the distinction between the Deep State and the Shadow Government, like former CIA officer Kevin Shipp does, then this falls right in line with Trump’s goals in cleaning up the rot and corruption in the U.S. government.  In a recent interview with Greg Hunter at USAWatchdog.com,

    Shipp explains, “I differentiate between the ‘Deep State’ and the shadow government. The shadow government are the secret intelligence agencies that have such power and secrecy that they act even without the knowledge of Congress. There are many things that they do with impunity. Then there is the ‘Deep State,’ which is the military industrial complex, all of the industrial corporations and their lobbyists, and they have all the money, power and greed that give all the money to the Senators and Congressmen. So, they are connected, but they are really two different entities. It is the shadow government . . . specifically, the CIA, that is going after Donald Trump. It is terrified that some of its dealings are going to be exposed. If they are, it could jeopardize the entire organization.” [emphasis mine]

    Court the Military Against the Spooks

    And as I’ve talked about at length, I’ve felt from the moment Trump was elected he was going to have to ally himself with the U.S. military to have any chance of surviving, let alone achieve his political goals.

    Trump’s final campaign ad was a clarion call to action.  It was a declaration of war against both the Shadow Government and the Deep State.  And it ensured that if he won, which he did, they would immediately go to war with him.

    And you don’t declare war like this if you aren’t prepared for the biggest knock-down, drag-out street brawl of all time.  If you aren’t prepared for it, don’t say it.  And for the past year we’ve been left wondering whether Trump was 1) prepared for it 2) capable of pulling it off.

    Trump’s continued needling of the establishment; playing the long game and demonizing the media which is the tip of the Shadow Government’s spear while strengthening the support of both the military (through his backing them at every turn) and his base by assisting them destroy the false narratives of globalism has been nothing short of amazing.

    As a hard-core, jaded politico, I can tell you I never thought for a second he had the ability to what he’s already done.  But, as the past few months have pointed out, the real power in the world doesn’t rest with the few thousand who manipulate the levers of power but the billions who for years stood by and let them.

    And those days of standing by are gone.

    So, Trump cozying up to the military, cutting a deal with the military-industrial complex (MIC) has the Deep State now incentivized to fight the Shadow Government for him.  The tax cut bill, while a brilliant example of political knife-fighting, is fundamentally about shoring up the finances of the corporations that make up the MIC through the repatriation of foreign-earned income, lowering the corporate tax rate and stealing even more of the middle class back from the Democrats.

    Trump had the right strategy from the beginning.  Civil Wars turn on what the police and the military do.  They are instigated by and fanned by the spooks, but it is the soldiers and the cops who decide the outcome.

    And so here we are.

    FISA, It’s Everywhere You Don’t Want it to Be

    Trump has called the Democrats’ and RINOs’ bluff on DACA and chain-immigration as a vote-buying scheme with zero political fallout.  He’s properly reframed the looming government shutdown on their inability to stick to their original agreements.

    His much-maligned Justice Department is now rolling up traitors associated with Uranium One, pedophiles and human traffickers all over the country and preparing for a showdown with blue state governors and attorney generals over “Sanctuary” grandstanding.

    By leading the charge, he gave strength to the patriots within both the Shadow Government and the Deep State organizations to leak the material needed to keep his campaign afloat.

    And as each new thing drops at the most inopportune time for the political establishment mentioned ad nauseum in that final campaign ad linked above, you have to wonder just how big the revolt inside these organizations is.

    Because, right here, right now, Trump can demand the release of this FISA memo and use it to torpedo the very thing that allowed the entire “Russia Hacked Muh Election” nonsense and send it back to the sh$&hole it was spawned from in the first place, the CIA and the DNC.

    And if that means for a few months the FISA courts are inoperable while a new bill and a new set of rules is drafted so be it.

    *  *  *

    Support work like this by subscribing to my Patreon Page where you can get access to the Gold Goats ‘n Guns Investment Newsletter for just $12/month.  

  • These Are The World's Real 'Shitholes'… Literally

    In many countries worldwide, there is still a chronic lack of toilets, driving people to defecate outdoors.

    In fact, as Statista’s Niall McCarthy notes, just under a billion people still practice open defecation across the globe and it’s a problem that results in widespread disease and millions of deaths.

    In 2015, the UN called for an end to open defecation by 2030 and some countries such as Vietnam have had considerable success eradicating it.

    Others are still struggling, however, as the following map clearly illustrates.

    Infographic: Nearly A Billion People Still Defecate Outdoors  | Statista

    You will find more statistics at Statista

    According to the most recent World Bank data which is from 2015, 40 percent of people in India still defecate outdoors.

    It is also common across Africa where the highest rates were recorded. Eritrea has the highest rate at 76 percent, followed by Niger (71 percent) and Chad (68 percent).

  • NSA "Sincerely Regrets" Deleting All Bush-Era Surveillance Data It Was Ordered To Preserve

    There is a growing consensus among many observers in Washington that the national security agencies have become completely politicized over the past seventeen years and are now pursuing selfish agendas that actually endanger what remains of American democracy.

    As Philip Giraldi notes, up until recently it has been habitual to refer to such activity as the Deep State, which is perhaps equivalent to the Establishment in that it includes financial services, the media, major foundations and constituencies, as well as lobbying groups, but we are now witnessing an evolutionary process in which the national security regime is exercising power independently.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180120_nsa.jpg

    Nowhere is that “independence” of the ‘state within a state’ more evident than in the blatant and egregious news this week that The National Security Agency destroyed surveillance data it pledged to preserve in connection with pending lawsuits and apparently never took some of the steps it told a federal court it had taken to make sure the information wasn’t destroyed, according to recent court filings.

    As Politico reports, the agency tells a federal judge that it is investigating and “sincerely regrets its failure.”

    Since 2007, the NSA has been under court orders to preserve data about certain of its surveillance efforts that came under legal attack following disclosures that President George W. Bush ordered warrantless wiretapping of international communications after the 2001 terrorist attacks on the U.S. In addition, the agency has made a series of representations in court over the years about how it is complying with its duties.

    However, the NSA told U.S. District Court Judge Jeffrey White in a filing on Thursday night and another little-noticed submission last year that the agency did not preserve the content of internet communications intercepted between 2001 and 2007 under the program Bush ordered. To make matters worse, backup tapes that might have mitigated the failure were erased in 2009, 2011 and 2016, the NSA said.

    “The NSA sincerely regrets its failure to prevent the deletion of this data,” NSA’s deputy director of capabilities, identified publicly as “Elizabeth B.,” wrote in a declaration filed in October.

    “NSA senior management is fully aware of this failure, and the Agency is committed to taking swift action to respond to the loss of this data.”

    Defiance of a court order can result in civil or criminal contempt charges, as well as sanctions against the party responsible. So far, no one involved appears to have asked White to impose any punishment or sanction on the NSA over the newly disclosed episodes, although the details of what happened are still emerging.

    “It’s really disappointing,” said David Greene, an attorney with the Electronic Frontier Foundation, which has been leading the prolonged litigation over the program in federal court in San Francisco.

    “The obligation’s been in place for a really long time now. … We had a major dust-up about it just a few years ago. This is definitely something that should’ve been found sooner.”

    Word of the NSA’s foul-up is emerging just as Congress has extended for six years the legal authority the agency uses for much of its surveillance work conducted through U.S. internet providers and tech firms.

    Antiwar activist Justin Raimondo believes that something like a civil war is coming, with the war party Establishment fighting to defend its privileged global order while many other Americans seek a return to normal nationhood with all that implies.

    If true, the next few years will see a major internal conflict that will determine what kind of country the United States will be.

  • Jeremy Grantham Exposes The Corporatocracy: America's "Run By Those Guys For Their Own Interests"

    Authored by Robert Huebscher via AdvisorPerspectives.com,

    Have profit margins risen to a permanently higher plateau? Are average Americans better off than they were a generation ago? I had the opportunity to discuss those questions, which are centrally important to investing and economic policy, with Jeremy Grantham a couple of weeks ago.

    The discussion took place as part of a larger interview about climate-change investing. Grantham is the co-founder and chief investment strategist of Boston-based Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo (GMO).

    It’s been widely reported that over the last 20 years the number of publicly traded companies has decreased by about 50%. The common explanations center on the fact that the number of de-listings, mergers, acquisitions and bankruptcies have outstripped the initial public offerings (IPOs).

    But I wanted to know if there was a deeper explanation related to the fact that corporate profit margins are at historical highs. Over the last dozen years, with the exception of the financial crisis, profit margins have been between 9% and 11% of GDP. Prior to that, the last time they were above 9% was in 1951.

    The U.S. economy has become more concentrated in the service and technology sectors, which are inherently more profitable than the manufacturing businesses that dominated 50 years ago. Those business, like Amazon, Apple and Google have built incredibly strong, near-monopolistic franchises that should translate to higher margins.

    If the market has become dominated with highly profitable, monopolistic franchises, then maybe that is why there are fewer companies and profit margins are no longer “the most mean-reverting series in finance,” as Grantham once claimed.

    GMO has looked at this issue extensively. As Grantham noted, “profit margins and return on sales will vary much depending on whether you are in the supermarket business or whether you are in some software company. There is no average to which it moves.”

    But that doesn’t necessarily mean that returns for equities will be greater going forward. As Grantham explained, higher margins will attract more capital and reduce the returns relative to other asset classes. “If your capital is returning more in this area than the other area then capital will flow and balance it out,” he said.

    Higher margins have been offered as an explanation, by Grantham and others, for why the cyclically adjusted price-earnings (CAPE) ratio is higher than its historical average. But CAPE ratios depend on other factors, such as real interest rates, so margins only tell part of the story.

    Grantham said that the monopoly factor has increased margins “a bit.”+

    “Corporate power as exercised through Congress, particularly in the U.S., has clearly increased the total domination of regulatory boards by the industries. Regulations have gone from being concerning to laughable, and totally run by those guys for their own interests,” he said.

    Grantham is far more concerned about the societal impacts of unchecked capitalism than he is with its effect on margins.

    “We are seeing a flowering of corporatism where government is designed to maximize the opportunities of giant influential companies and industries that spend a lot of money lobbying,” he said. “We continue down that primrose path today with yet another cycle of deregulating designed to help corporations.”

    Grantham spoke about the “punishing consequences” that tax cuts and deregulation will have on the general public. +

    He said that “maximizing the returns and the share of the pie going to corporations and the superrich is deplorable and has terrible effects on the economy in the long run. The average person in the street doesn’t have the buying power increments that they used to have.”

    American prosperity

    But is the average American really losing buying power? On this point, Grantham and I disagreed. Whether you go back 10, 20 or 40 years, I contend the standard of living for Americans has increased enormously.

    Grantham, however, said that in terms of general well-being and happiness, Americans are worse off.`

    “If you do your best to control for everything and measure happiness, this is not a particularly happy country,” Grantham said. “It is not entirely dependent on income by any means, and we have not improved.”

    He acknowledged a couple areas where Americans are better off – entertainment, such as high-tech computer games, and medicine, where he said progress in drugs and technology are keeping people alive longer. To those I would add food, in light of the advances in the quality and variety of choices in cuisine, and transportation, considering the speed and safety at which we can travel by car, plane and other means.

    But Grantham said that the average worker has not been paid more since 1974 for an hour’s work. “Does he feel more content, or does he feel extremely frustrated by his relative lack of progress compared to others?” he asked, rhetorically. “There is no doubt that he is more frustrated. The suicide rate in that group has gone way up. The drug addiction has gone way up.”

    Indeed, he said there are all the indications of a “thoroughly miserable middle America.”

    That is obvious from the suicide rate and the addiction rate, according to Grantham. He sympathizes with those who came from a world where one’s parents increased their annual wages by 3% or 4% real per year. Inflation-adjusted salaries have gone “dead flat” since the early 1970s, he said.

    “This has been a bitter disappointment,” Grantham said.

    I asked whether this could be the result of rhetoric from politicians and commentators who seek to amplify the fears of disadvantaged Americans. Grantham agreed that there has been a political background that encouraged – or even whipped up – disappointment.

    “But it is also clear that the reasons for being frustrated have not come out of thin air,” he said. “This is not the postwar boom where blue-collar workers make enough money to feel very pleased with themselves, and have their kids one way or the other go to college. This is not by any means as successful a society.”

    He pointed to some statistics that illustrate the lack of progress among Americans relative to other developed countries – more children are born to 16-year old girls, a higher murder rate, more people in prison (by a factor of three or four, he said), a higher rate of gun violence and lower life expectancies.

    But the data on life expectancy is not conclusive. Life expectancy at birth is less for Americans than for most developed countries, but after approximately age 35, U.S. life expectancy is indistinguishable from the others. The reason is that the murder rate in the U.S. is so high and most victims are younger than 35.

    Grantham countered that our infant mortality is 19th or 20th out of 20 developed counties and mothers who die in childbirth are very high compared to the others. He said that those rates have improved steadily, but that America pays the most for health care as a percentage of GDP, and we have worse outcomes than everyone except a couple of countries.

    But you can’t use life expectancy to claim that medical outcomes in the U.S. are worse than for other countries, unless you carefully adjust for our murder rate.

    I acknowledged that Americans pay more for medical care, but I contended that a better question to ask is whether all health-related government spending, including social services, is greater in the U.S. than for other developed countries. Those social services, including welfare, food stamps, and subsidized housing, contribute to better health outcomes in the same way as does healthcare. When you look at all health-related spending, the data for the U.S. is not that different than our peers (The major OECD countries on average spend about $1.70 on social services for each $1 on health services. But the US spends just 56 cents per health dollar – see here).

    The question of whether Americans get better outcomes for our healthcare dollars is significant, yet for most of us its relevance will be limited to cocktail-party conversations. But the larger question of how fast our standard of living is advancing has profound implications for economic policymakers. If our standard of living is improving faster than the published data indicates, then it means that inflation has been overstated. If inflation is overstated, then real growth rates and productivity are understated.

    Most importantly, this runs contrary to the claims by politicians and others about stagnating real wages.

    This is where Grantham and I had the sharpest difference. He said, “There is no question that GDP growth has slowed way down. Productivity has slowed way down and we have entered a low-growth world.” In his view, this has led to extreme income inequality and favoring of corporations.

    “Where it goes and how long it lasts, nobody knows. You would hope for a swinging back of the pendulum, and I would certainly hope, and to some extent I expect that that will occur in the not too distant future.”

    I agree that that income inequality has risen and corporations are more favored by government policy. But I am not persuaded that real growth rates in the U.S. are as low as Grantham fears, nor am I convinced that Americans are as bad off as he claims.

  • Video: Inside America's Deadly Opioid Crisis

    Opioids kill more people than they cure. Every day in the United States, some 140 people die from taking opioids – addictive opiate-based drugs. They’ve become the leading cause of death among the under-50s, ahead of road accidents and firearms. France24’s US correspondents, Valérie Defert, Baptiste Fenwick, Hayde Fitzpatrick and Romain Jany, take a look at the deadly opioid crisis.

    Opioids are neither viruses nor bacteria, but painkillers. In the United States, they are prescribed in abundance and are perfectly legal for a small injury or a tooth extraction. Opioids are analgesics, highly powerful painkillers, derived from opium. But many patients become addicted to the drug in just a few days and today this medication, which can cause fatal overdoses, actually kills more people than it cures.

    The death of celebrities such as Prince and Michael Jackson put the painkiller addiction epidemic in the spotlight, a scourge that permeates every US region and all social classes.

     

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180120_opioid.jpg

    As soon as we began reporting, we became aware of the magnitude of the problem. Millions of patients have become addicted to opioids unintentionally, simply because their doctor prescribed them painkillers after an injury or an operation. Many people have played a role in this health scandal: the government and its agencies, influenced by pharmaceutical lobbies and unable to regulate themselves; the pharmaceutical companies, which concealed the danger of certain drugs, eyeing tens of billions of dollars in profits; and some unscrupulous doctors.

    The situation has been exacerbated by dangerous political decisions. A recent Washington Post investigation revealed that in April 2016, at the height of the opioid crisis, and under pressure from pharmaceutical lobbies, Congress passed a series of laws easing the rules on painkiller distribution.

    National health emergency

    Nevertheless, as soon as he came to power, Donald Trump vowed to act on this overdose epidemic. On October 26, 2017, he declared the opioid crisis a “national health emergency”. Many commentators believe Trump acted quickly to satisfy his electoral base, because those worst affected by the opioid crisis are white, middle-class Americans, living in the centre of the country. But several months after his announcement, nothing has changed, as the funds have still not been released.

    Another scandal was Donald Trump’s appointment of Tom Marino to deal with the opioid crisis. Marino is the Republican Congressman who was tasked with helping pass the laws that favoured the pharmaceutical industry in the first place.

    Finally, why did the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) authorise the sale of opioids, such as Oxycontin in 1998, without conducting valid scientific tests? And amid the current addiction epidemic, why has the FDA decided not to ban this drug? After all, we now know that the Purdue Pharma laboratory concealed the addictive nature of these pills. It was even fined 600 million dollars, a record in the United States. We contacted the FDA, which claims to take the crisis “very seriously”. But no restrictions have been taken and Oxycontin is still prescribed today.

    After filming this report, it’s incredibly frustrating to realise that although everyone is talking about the crisis, nothing changes. Every day, thousands of Americans continue to put their lives in danger, without even knowing it.

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Today’s News 20th January 2018

  • "No Deal" – Government Shutdown Begins

    Update 12:03am ET: The shutdown has brgun.

    Per Reuters, the White House says it will reopen negotiations on immigration reform ‘when the Democrats start paying our armed forces and first responders’.

    * * *

    Update 10pm ET:

    *SENATE LACKS VOTES TO ADVANCE STOPGAP PLAN AS SHUTDOWN LOOMS

    The New York Times headline summed things up well: Senate Democrats Kill Bill to Keep Government Open Past Midnight

    Despite last minute ‘compromise’ meetings, and continued “hopes” from various sides, The Senate failed to reach the 60 votes necessary to keep the government funded (even for a stopgap) and so, as of midnight tonight, the government will shut down.

     

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    John Cornyn, the second-ranking Senate Republican, said the two parties haven’t yet found an agreement that would provide short-term funding for the government with a little more than two hours before the deadline.

    “No deal,” Cornyn said as the Senate prepared to take up a House-passed funding bill that Democrats have the votes to block.

    A group of lawmakers has been working on a plan for a three-week funding bill that would give Democrats and Republicans time to negotiate a long-term compromise on immigration, the chief sticking point in the spending fight.

    CNN’s Phil Mattingly explained on air: “Democrats aren’t looking for a reduction in time in the continuing resolution, they’re looking for substantive policy, commitments, changes or actual legislative text before they are willing to come on board with that.”

    This is what America will wake up to…

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180119_shut3.jpg

    This is the 19th US government shutdown in the last 40 years…

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180119_shut.jpg

    President Trump tweeted before the vote:

     

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    While the blame-scaping may have begun days ago, tonight has already seen a full court press of finger-pointing.

    Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) blasted Congress on Friday as a government funding deadline approached, slamming the government as being “run by idiots.”

    “Our country was founded by geniuses, but it’s being run by idiots,” Kennedy told reporters hours before the government was set to enter a shutdown.

    Lindsey Graham issued a statement suggesting a three-week compromise CR to Feb 8th:

     

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    The White House has estimated 1056 staff will be furloughed during the shutdown.

    EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

    Updated Contingency Plan For Shutdown Furlough

    A. Summary of Contingency Plan

    Should Congress not pass a Fiscal Year 2018 (“FY2018”) appropriation or continuing resolution (“CR”) by January 19, 2018, the Executive Office of the President (“EOP”) would be without authority to incur any financial obligations in FY2018, with very limited exceptions, and would therefore implement a contingency plan for shutdown furlough (the “Contingency Plan”). The Contingency Plan entails placing an estimated I 056 ofthe 1715 EOP staff in furlough status (“Non-Excepted Staff’), while an estimated 659 EOP staff would continue to report to duty because they are (i) designated as excepted to perform emergency or excepted functions; (ii) Presidentially Appointed, Senate Confirmed staff; (iii) otherwise exempt from the Anti-deficiency Act; (iv) alternatively funded during a government shutdown (collectively, the “Excepted Staff’). Any EOP personnel that are other government employees (“OGEs” or “Detailees”) would be furloughed or continue to report to duty at the discretion of their respective home agencies.

    B. Implementation of Contingency Plan

    Once it becomes clear that neither an appropriations bill nor a CR will be enacted prior to January 19, 2018, the White House Office of Management & Administration (“M&A”) will notify EOP components to begin an orderly shutdown of unfunded functions. Non-Excepted Staff will receive shutdown and furlough notices. Detailees will be notified by their home agencies whether they are to be furloughed.

    On Monday, January 22, 2018, Excepted Staff will report to duty. Non-Excepted Staff will also report on January 22, 2018, either in person or via telework for no longer than four hours and for the sole purpose of engaging in orderly shutdown activities. Each EOP component will issue instructions to their employees for orderly shutdown.

    C. Specifics of EOP Component Contingency Plan

    Each EOP component has carefully considered the number of personnel required not only to complete orderly shutdown activities but also to ensure that the emergency or excepted operations of each EOP component can be carried out during shutdown. The chart below summarizes component-by-component the Excepted Staff that will be required to sustain minimal emergency or excepted operations.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180119_shut1.jpg

    Federal employees will work without pay:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180119_shut4.jpg

    The question is – will government ever re-open? As Trump tweeted earlier, the Democrats want to shutdown to dim the success of the tax cuts; and as Goldman noted earlier, for every week of government shutdown, GDP growth will drop 0.2ppt.

    CNN is reporting that House Democrats plan a 10am meeting tomorrow to discuss a stopgap bill.

    The battle of the hashtags has begun – #RepublicanShutdown, #TrumpShutdown, or #SchumerShutdown.

    All of which distract from the only hashtag that really matters currently – #ReleaseTheMemo.

    *  *  *

    Update (6:20 pm ET): Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp says she will vote for a 5-day stopgap plan being hashed out by a group of senate Republicans. While Mulvaney has expressed optimism that a deal will be reached within the next 24 hours, Mark Meadows, leader of the House Freedom Caucus of conservative Republicans, said the 5-day agreement is a nonstarter – Which an administration insider confirmed.

    Heitkamp represents North Dakota – a state where Trump won more than 60% of the vote in 2016 – and will be running for re-election in November. Her seat is viewed as vulnerable by some Republicans.

    According to the Washington Post, Heitkamp also supported the Republican plan for a one-month extension, as did Indiana’s Joe Donnelly and West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin III. All three senators face a difficult path to reelection in heavily Republican states.

    Meanwhile, Mitch McConnell announced on the Senate floor that a procedural vote on the troubled 4-week extension has been scheduled for for 10 pm ET. Senate Democrats will meet at 8:30 pm ET.

    * * *

    Update (5:40 pm ET): OBM Director Mick Mulvaney says he “thinks there’ll be a deal in the next 24 hours.”

    Meanwhile, a White House aide said a proposed 5-day bill is a non-starter – echoing sentiments expressed by Freedom Caucus head Mark Meadows.

    * * *

    Update (5:20 pm ET): Trump tweeted that he had an “excellent” meeting with Schumer, and that he’s working with both Democratic leaders, as well as Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell to hammer out a four-week extension.

     

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    * * *

    Update (2:40 pm ET): Schumer has left the White House meeting with Trump…

    He confirmed to reporters that “some progress” has been made, but that a deal has not yet been reached and “disagreements on several issues remain.”

     

    Nancy Pelosi says she believes a deal is “within reach.”

     

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    Steny Hoyer appears to agree:

     

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    Citing an anonymous source at the White House, ABC is reporting that talks will continue..

    * * *

    Update (2 pm ET): House Rules Committee Chairman Pete Sessions said the House will vote again tonight if Trump and Schumer manage to work out a separate deal.

    * * *

    Update: There is still no vote scheduled for the Senate, but that didn’t stop John Cornyn, the Republican No. 2 in the upper chamber, from telling reporters that he expects a vote to be held “after lunch.”

    Meanwhile, Mark Meadows, leader of the House Freedom Caucus, said he understands a proposal for a five-day short-term fix has been rejected by the House.

    According to the latest headline from the New York Times, Trump has invited Democratic leader Chuck Schumer to the White House t try and hammer out a last-minute deal.

    Schumer has reportedly accepted, and is on his way to the White House to meet with Trump, who is addressing a crowd of supporters at the March for Life from the Rose Garden.

    <a href="

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js“>Fox News is reporting that Schumer has arrived at the White House.

     

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    Despite all of this, markets haven’t shown much of a reaction…

     

    * * *

    Update: Hardly a surprise, Mulvaney and Short arrived more than a half hour late, then proceeded to blast Democrats as obstructionists for trying to force a shutdown.

    They even have a name for it: “The Schumer Shutdown”.

    “This is an attempt by democrats led by Schumer – that’s why we’re calling it the Schumer shutdown – to embarrass the president,” Mulvaney said.

    “They don’t oppose anything in there. They support chip they don’t want the cadillac tax to go into place they’ve always supported clean CRs. And again, it worked in the House – there were several Democrats who voted for it,” Mulvaney.

    DACA doesn’t expire until March 5 – and therefore, doesn’t need to be dealt with until mid-February, Mulvaney said.

    Unlike the last shutdown in 2013, federal parks will be open, Mulvaney said. But all federal employees will be working for nothing (that is, until their back pay is approved by Congress). The military, TSA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will also go to work, but they will not be paid.

    As of now, it looks like the federal government expects the shutdown to happen – though Mulvaney said their version of the shutdown would be more “moderate” than the previous shutdown, which happened during the Obama years. Mulvaney accused the Obama administration of “weaponizing” the shutdown by ensuring that virtually all federal employees didn’t show up for work. 

    While Mulvaney and Short were answering questions from the media, President Trump chimed in on twitter, chiding Democrats for opposing the bill. Trump blasted California Sen. Dianne Feinstein, tweeting a quote from her in the Washington Examiner: “Shutting down the government is a very serious thing…People die, accidents happen. I don’t know how I would vote right now on a CR, OK?”

     

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    * * *

    With the one-month stopgap spending bill stalled in the Senate, the White House is finally accepting the fact that there’s little it can do to prevent the government from shutting down at midnight on Friday.

    Trump has promised to remain in Washington – postponing a weekend trip to Mar-a-Lago – until the shutdown is averted or ended, and in order to keep the media apprised of what’s about the happen, the White House is holding a press conference at 10:30 am ET.

    Watch it live below:

    The press conference will feature White House Legislative Director Marc Short and OMB Director Mick Mulvaney, who only minutes ago warned that the odds of a shutdown were “50-50” – another way of saying “we have no idea what’s going to happen.”

    According to the Hill, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell adjourned the Senate until 11 a.m. Friday without scheduling a vote on the House measure, giving lawmakers just 13 hours to reach a deal to avert a shutdown. McConnell has vowed to keep the Senate in session until an agreement is reached. Democrats are digging in their heels, demanding that they receive some concessions on DACA, opioids and funding for Puerto Rico before assenting to another short-term spending bill.

    One thing’s for certain: Don’t expect the steady stream of headlines to abate until late tonight…

     

  • Riz Virk Explains Why Quantum Physics, AI, & Eastern Mystics All Agree We Are Living In A Video Game

    Authored by Riz Virk via HackerNoon.com,

    An MIT trained computer scientist and Silicon Valley video game designer gives 10 reasons for the ‘Simulation Hypothesis’: that our reality is a simulated, pixelated 3d world where we all have individual xp, levels, and quests run by some giant Artificial Intelligence

    Recently, the idea that we may be living in a giant video game, or as it’s sometimes called, the Simulation Hypothesis, has gotten a lot of attention because of prominent figures like Elon Musk who have openly discussed the idea. As Virtual Reality technology has gotten more sophisticated, we are starting to contemplate virtual worlds like that of the omni-present Oasis in Ready Player One, soon to be a blockbuster movie directed by Stephen Spielberg.

    Some like sci fi writer Philip K. Dick, believed strongly that we were living in a kind of simulation. Others, like futurist Ray Kurzweil, have popularized the idea of downloading our consciousness into a silicon based device, which would mean we are just digital information after all. Some, like Oxford lecturer Nick Bostrom, goes further and thinks we may in fact be artificially simulated consciousness inside such a simulation already!

    Science Fiction Or Mysticism?

    Like my first exposure to most great ideas, I discovered the Simulation Hypothesis through watching and reading too much science fiction.

    The first time was during an episode of Star Trek: The Next Generation, where a holo-deck character realized that he was in a simulation and that some of the people in the simulation existed “out there” (in this case, out there was the rest of the Enterprise) and he wanted to go there, too! Was it possible that we were in a “holo-deck-like” space and that there was another world “out there”, I wondered?

     

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180119_reality1.jpg

    A Star Trek character in the Holodeck realizes that he is in a simulation

    Although this was only a passing thought at the time, it wasn’t until the movie the Matrix was released in 1999 that the idea grew in the popular consciousness. It occurred to me then that this kind of simulation could exist with or without the alien overlords that make this a nightmare situation (in both the Matrix and Elon Musk’s version of the giant video game, there are also super-intelligent aliens behind the simulation).

     

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180119_reality2.jpg

    The Matrix planted the idea in the popular consciousness that we are in a simulated reality

    As a computer scientist and video game designer, I have to admit that this idea is not really that crazy. A civilization that implemented an advanced simulation like ours might be many thousands (even millions) of years ahead of us; it’s not that hard to imagine such a civilization creating much more sophisticated games than we are capable of building today.

    As I started to study Quantum Physics and its startling revelations about the nature of “objective” vs. “subjective” reality, I started to wonder again about the idea of a giant multi-player video game. Moreover, as I delved more into the Eastern traditions, particularly Yogic and Buddhist philosophy, I found that their ideas about the nature of the world were actually pretty consistent with the idea that we are living in a simulation.

    Why Might This Be A Video Game After All

    Let’s delve into the top reasons why we may be living in a simulation after all:

    1. Pixels, Resolution, Virtual and Augmented Reality

    One of the main arguments that Musk makes is that a more advanced civilization will have games that are of very high resolution — so high that we would be unable to distinguish between the “real” world and a “simulated one”.

    Today we are already seeing with Virtual Reality that “full immersion” is possible. Anyone who has played a convincing VR game will realize that it’s possible to forget about the real world and “believe” the world you are seeing is real.

    As a great example, I was playing a prototype of a Ping Pong VR game last year (built by Free Range Games), and even though it wasn’t realistic resolution, I lost myself and thought I was playing ping pong for real. So much so that I set the paddle on the ping pong “table” and leaned against the table. Of course it was a VR table so it didn’t really exist — I ended up dropping the paddle (actually the Vive controller) onto the floor. As I leaned into the “table” I almost fell over before realizing that there was no table. In other words, to quote from the Matrix, there is no spoon.

     

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180119_reality3.jpg

    In Ready Player One, a realistic immersive virtual reality world, Oasis, becomes the ultimate escape

    Imaging what kind of pixel resolution we might have in a hundred years, let alone in a thousand years! It could be pretty convincing. Also, as AR technology evolves to project onto the retina without needing external glasses, we could be seeing things around us that aren’t really there in a resolution that’s indistinguishable from the physical world. This brings up the idea that the world “out there” could really be just a projection in our minds.

    2. Pixels, Quanta, and Xeno’s Paradox.

    I recall late nights at MIT during my undergrad years where I had philosophical debates with my classmates about the nature of reality. This was the first time I’d heard of Xeno’s paradox. The idea was that if space was continuous, like numbers are (you can always find an infinite number of numbers in between any two numbers), how is it possible to touch an object such as the wall? You would always have to cover half the distance and neve get there.

    Xeno (or Zeno, whichever spelling you prefer!) related the paradox using the example of Achilles and a tortoise. If the tortoise was ahead of Achilles, how could he possibly ever catch it if he always had to make up “half the distance”?

     

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180119_reality4.jpg

    When I first heard about this paradox, my initial reaction was that space must be quantized — there must be some minimum distance that we traverse. Later, I discovered that I wasn’t alone in this idea; whether this “minimum” amount is the Planck constant or some other amount isn’t as important as the idea that the physical universe, as we know it, may consists of pixels. Just like a video game! How many pixels are in the real world? To use a non-scientific term, a shitload.

    3. An Open World and the Illusion of Infinite Possibilities.

    Early video games were very linearly structured, such as space invaders or Pac-Man. There was a limited set of “motions” that were allowable using some “input” control, and there were specific objective as part of the each level, and you progressed linearly through the levels.

    As video games evolved and 3d models of a “world” became commonplace, video games took an evolutionary leap. It seemed from the player’s perspective that you could move around and do anything. Examples of open world video games range from GTA (Grand Theft Auto) and WOW (World of Warcraft), or the Sims, which simulated life and eventually Virtual Worlds like Second Life. Of course the idea that he world is infinite and that we can do “anything” inside the world is a carefully crafted illusion.

    Game designers know that’s not true. Using 3D modeling we can have a world that is generated and looks infinite but is really a set of maps and rules. In any game, no matter how “open” it appears, there are underlying tasks, or quests, or accomplishments, which are mapped out by the game designers. Is it possible that we have a similar illusion of “open-ness” in life?

     

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180119_reality5.jpg

    Open World games like Second Life give the illusion of free choice

    4. The Collapse of the Probability Wave, Future Selves, and Parallel Universes

    In Quantum physics one of the most intriguing ideas is the probability matrix, which is an interpretation of how subatomic particles can exhibit properties of both a wave and a solid particle at the same time. At the level of an electron or a photon, the wave is interpreted as a set of probabilities of where the particle might be at any given time. When we observe a particular possibility, then the probability wave is said to “collapse” and we see a single particle in a particular location.

     

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180119_reality6.jpg

    Probability wave of the location of a particle

    Some interpreters have taken this to the macro level to say that there are a set of probabilities in which we exist both in the present and in the future.

    Which of the possible paths do we follow? There isn’t a good explanation; how the probability wave collapses is one of the biggest mysteries in Quantum Physics. The best answer physicists have come up with is that consciousness somehow determines the collapse.

    Physicist Fred Alan Wolf, for example, says that information from these possible futures is coming to us in the present and that we send out an “offer wave” into the future, which is interacting with the “offer waves” coming from the future to the present. Which possible future we navigate to depends on which choices we make, and how these two waves super-pose on each other (or cancel each other out).

    These are startling results. Future probable selves are sending back information to the present, and we are consciously choosing which path to follow.

     

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180119_reality7.jpeg

    Figure 1: Multiple Probable Futures Are Sending Us Back Information we use to make decisions.

    Another related aspect of Quantum Physics that sounds like science fiction is the Parallel Universes theory, where we branch into different “universes” when we make decisions. If that’s true, then there is a directed graph of multiple universes that are branching out each time we make a decision, resulting in different timelines (in fact, the parallel universes theory was put forward to solve the grandfather paradox of time travel).

    This reminded me of the very first video game I made back at MIT. The way that the computer chose the next move was to project the possible futures, and then use a certain algorithm to “rank” those futures, and then bring those values back to the present and then the AI would choose the path to follow.

    Did the possible futures we were calculating in our game actually exist? Or were they just probabilities? I realized that this isn’t too much different from what’s happening at the quantum level, except that in existing games like chess or checkers, we use a simple function (based on the rules of the game) to decide which of the paths is most optimal. We used the “minimax” algorithm in game design, trying to maximize our score and minimize our opponents score at each “turn of the future”.

     

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180119_reality8.jpg

    The minimax algorithm: a simple AI for evaluating future outcomes and choosing hte best path

    In the Great Simulation of life, suppose there is another “function” which is ranking these possible futures, and we at some subconconscious level are choosing which of those possible futures and branches we may want to take from the present forward, just like in a video game!

    5. Observables and conditional rendering.

    When we have a 3d video game, we map out the world using 3d models. In some games, we allow user-generated content that stays in the world even after we log out of the gameplay session so that other players can see it.

    In video games, this “model” of the “world” exists outside of the character’s perception. In a trick meant for optimization, we don’t “render” the whole world on every single player’s computer. We only render the part of the world that the player is in, and then usually only for a certain point of view at a certain time. It would be impractical to render the entire world!

    Moreover, in 3d video games, there are techniques to optimize the rendering based upon what the player is looking at. These techniques were pioneered in first person shooters like Doom and now used heavily in VR headsets.

     

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180119_reality9.jpeg

    A philosophical question that comes up in both Quantum Physics and in Video Games is that if no one is in a particular part of the 3d world — i.e no one is observing it, or no player is there — does the particular possibility exist?

    Just like Schroedinger’s mysterious cat, which is neither dead nor alive until someone observes it, the world of video games relies on a player being logged in to render the world. If no one is logged into a particular room or a particular world, what state is it in? For example, what happens if there are no players logged into any of the servers of an MMORPG like World of Warcraft? The servers are running but nothing generally happens until a player logs in to observe what is going on, not unlike Quantum Physics.

    Spiritual and Mystical Traditions

    The next few reasons reflect interesting parallels between some of the spiritual and religious traditions, particularly the Eastern traditions and the Simulation Hypothesis. If you’re not into that, skip to reasons #9 and #10.

    6. The World is an Illusion.

    In many mystical traditions, particularly in Buddhism and Hinduism, we are told that the world around us is actually an illusion. Maya, the Sanskrit word for illusion, is used to describe the world we see, and Brahman, is the real world.

    In Buddhism, the idea is that to “wake up” you have to recognize that the world around us is an illusion. In fact the term “Buddha” means literally “awake”.

    In modern terms, they might just be describing a type of video game that we are all caught within, not unlike the HoloDeck from Star Trek. We are caught inside the illusory world, while there is a real world just beyond that we cannot normally perceive unless we “wake up”.

    In fact, there is a branch of Buddhist Yoga called Dream Yoga, which is used to help us “wake up”. In Dream Yoga, a form of lucid dreaming, participants are taught to realize that the dreams we go through at night are “simulated” experiences. By learning to recognize that we are in a simulation, we can “wake ourselves up”. The idea is that if we can do this in the “fake” worlds of dreams, so that we can do it in the “fake world” of real life — which is also a simulated reality!

    7. Multiple Lives, Points, Levels & Experience.

    According to many eastern traditions, we are actually going through multiple lives, gaining experience in each life and moving up to different levels of “evoluation”.

    In early video games like Pac Man or Space Invaders, each player also had a number of lives — the player accumulated points until the character was killed. The player could “continue” from the place they died, or could “start over” until the dreaded “GAME OVER” flashed on the screen.

    In MMORPGs, the player usually has a character which stores up a certain set of experiences between gameplay sessions (the character’s state).If we start over, the player of course remembers the skills they have gained in previous lives, but the character starts over with zero values in their state.

    This is analogous to how in some Buddhist traditions, when we are born, even though we retain the tendencies of previous lives, we cross the “river of forgetfulness” when we “start over”. In these traditions there is still someplace that we store all of our experiences and our points. Where? It’s not explicitly stated, but it sure sounds like they are uploaded to some kind of “cloud server”.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180119_reality10.jpeg

    In some traditions, we go through multiple lives on the wheel of re-incarnation. Sure sounds like a Video Game to me!

    Let’s look at Western religous traditions. As I was growing up in the Islamic tradition, I was told that there was “scorecard” that was being kept for us in this life — every good deed was recorded (“swab”) and every bad deed was recorded (“haram”) and depending on the score at the end of your life (and on Judgement Day, the day of Kyamath) you would go to either Junnath (Heaven) or Jahanam (Hell). In the Christian traditions, there is also the idea of the two angels on each shoulders and the idea of going to Heaven or Hell (with Purgatory thrown in for good measure). Again, we have the same idea: of a player game-state that is uploaded somewhere “outside” the rendered world.

    8. Quests, Karma and God-like AI

    In the eastern traditions, our experiences in life are not random; there is a system that is keeping track of what we think and do, and then creating situations in the world to deal with our past actions, called Karma.

    Now if you were going to design a seemingly open-ended game, a simulation that can track billions of players, you would need to keep track of quests and achievements for each person.

    In today’s video games, the quests/achievements/challenges are the same for each player. However, it’s not very difficult to envision a more sophisticated video game where quests were chosen based on the past experience of the player. And like in a particular level of a video game, the player could be confronted with similar challenges, again and again, until they are able to pass the challenge.

    To accomplish these kinds of “personalized quests” you would need to synchronize across a very large base of “players” and “NPC” or non-player characters (billions of concurrent players in the Great Simulation). You would also need to figure out which group of other players might be compatible, right now, in the moment, in a specific section of the 3d world, to a player’s quests. The result of each interaction in the game could have lasting consequences, leading to more challenges in the future.

    Some intelligence would need to keep track of billions of concurrent players (something we can’t do yet in any video game today). It would seem that an Artificial Intelligence system would be ideal for this kind of task. It may not even need to be that intelligent, as long as the rules were clearly defined and it could scale infinitely!

    Let’s move from the East to the West, to a more traditional religious framework. In these religions everyone prays to God. Let’s assume for a moment that God is real. What is God? What kind of intelligence, if it existed, could keep track of so many, billions of individual prayers and timelines? What could keep track of whether on judgement day, you are to go down to a deeper, less pleasant level (“Hell”) of hte game, or go to a higher, more pleasurable level (“Heaven”). You guessed it — an extremely sophisticated AI.

    Final Reasons

    Moving away from spiritual traditions, let’s come back to science for our final two reasons.

    9. Player Characters (PC) vs. Non-Player Characters (NPCs)

    Nick Bostrom, on the faculty at Oxford University, has long been a proponent of the simulation hypothesis. The argument that he makes is different — that civilizations are unlikely to survive and if they do, then they would have powerful computers that can do “ancestor” simulations. We are more likely, concludes Bostrom, simulated consciousness than actual biological beings. From his famous paper:

    One thing that later generations might do with their super-powerful computers is run detailed simulations of their forebears or of people like their forebears. Because their computers would be so powerful, they could run a great many such simulations. Suppose that these simulated people are conscious (as they would be if the simulations were sufficiently fine-grained and if a certain quite widely accepted position in the philosophy of mind is correct). Then it could be the case that the vast majority of minds like ours do not belong to the original race but rather to people simulated by the advanced descendants of an original race. It is then possible to argue that, if this were the case, we would be rational to think that we are likely among the simulated minds rather than among the original biological ones

    As a video game designer, this reminds me of our attempts to create realistic “NPC”s or non-player characters. As games have gotten more sophisticated, these AI characters have gotten more sophisticated. We may rapidly be approaching AI which can pass the Turing Test, which is an AI that is indistinguishable from a human being (if you were conversing with them).

    I recall early text games like Zork had players that would talk to you and attempts to make these characters realistic. AI has advanced well beyond that but we do not currently have NPCs which can pass the Turing Test. Once we do (in 10 years? In 100 years? In a thousand years), the possibility that people we are interacting with inside a simulation are NPCs goes up considerably. Professor Bostrom thinks that “we” are the simulated consciousness.

    10. Speed of Light, Wormholes, etc.

    It is curious that in our Universe, as far as we can tell, the fastest that we can travel from point A to point B is the speed of light. This also happens to be the speed of electrical systems and electromagnetic waves. In a normal video game, the fastest we would be able to send information from one player to the next would be over electrical wires. Why would the fastest we can travel through space be the same as the speed of electromagnetic waves, unless our idea of space was being generated by some form of electromagnetic wave?

    In the Virtual World of Second Life, if you try to go from point A to point B, you would be stuck traveling through the “space” of the game and would have to move slowly — whether you were walking or flying. On the other hand, you could instantly teleport to another part of the game at which point a different part of the 3d world will render around you.

    Do we also have this ability in real life? Some physicists have theorized wormholes, or Einstein-Rosen bridges, which would allow us to tear through the fabric of spacetime to shortcut the fabric of space and time. You could think of it as a backdoor — basically a teleport in video game terms.

     

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180119_reality11.jpeg

    Wormholes allow us to get outside the 3d world to go from one place to another

     

    Conclusion

    These are just some of the reasons why we may be living in a Video Game after all, the Great Simulation. I haven’t even gotten into some of the more esoteric or psychological reasons (which would take a whole book unto itself).

    As computer science and artificial intelligence rapidly advance their capabilities, it may be possible to create a simulated world that looks and feels as real as our own. Video games, which started out with simple rules about what can be done and simple 2d worlds, have advanced rapidly into a MMORPG (massive multi-player online role playing games) with millions of players interacting in a simulated world. As computer technology advances, the chances of creating a billion player plus simulated world like our own is rapidly approaching.

    Moreover, Quantum Physics gives us a description of the univere (or multiple universes) that doesn’t make sense from the perspective of an “objective reality” but requires observation by some consciousness. These sometimes incredible findings defy common sense, unless we are living inside a video game rather than a physical reality and consciousness is the equivalent to us “logging into” the system.

    Eastern traditions, particularly Buddhist traditions, have long contended that we are living in world of illusion, and that we go through multiple lives trying to work out our individual quests, all of which are stored beyond the “rendered world”. There is a giant system that not only stores this but creates new situations for us to get our “achievements”. Sure sounds like a Video Game to me.

    All of these areas, Computer Science/Artificial Intelligence, Quantum Physics, and Eastern spiritual traditions point to one likely scenario: That we are living inside a very sophisticated Video Game, which I call The Great Simulation.

    Like all simulations, our world may only be real while the “simulation” is running.

    This reminds me of a quote from the British intellectual, Havelock Ellis, about dreams. He said:

    “Dreams are real while they last. Can we say any more of life?”

    Can we indeed??

  • Worldwide Approval Of America's Leadership Is Waning

    Donald Trump has been in power as the 45th President of the United States for a year, since his inauguration on January 20, 2017.

    The set-up of the international arena has long been shifting, away from lone American leadership towards a more multipolar world in which other powers are gaining influence, but as Statista’s Dyfed Loesche notes, Trump’s political agenda seems to be speeding up this process, as data by research institute Gallup on the approval of other nations’ of U.S. leadership suggests.

    Infographic: Worldwide Approval of America’s Leadership is Waning | Statista

    You will find more statistics at Statista

    Ever since the Second World War came to an end in 1945, the United States presided over the so-called “Pax Americana”, she had inherited the position of world leadership from Great Britain, who saw her long-standing predominance in the world dissolve together with her pre-war empire. This new set-up had its ups and downs, but brought with it a promise of stability during the Cold War stand-off with the Soviet Union, and even after the Berlin Wall fell in 1989.

    While the United States has always been willing and ready to wield her military might, the basis of her strong leadership position had to do with other nations accepting her as an agenda-setting hegemon. This order of things has been called into question from the outside, by emerging powers. Most notably China is challenging the status quo as she is constantly gathering economic and therefore political clout.

    But this process, it seems, is also being hastened from within the United States itself, by domestic politics. Since Donald Trump became president on an “America first” ticket, the world seems to become less accepting of America as a lead nation. There is a somewhat tragic, or at least ironic, ring to Trump’s often repeated vow to make “America great again”, as he might be the president who cements America’s fall from grace and power in the international arena.

  • London Sex Dungeon For Sale: Asking Price £3 Million

    Authored by Joel Golby via Vice.com,

    What else are you doing with your basement, come on…

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180119_fuckdungeon1.jpg

    What is it? Oh we’ll get to that buddy…

    Where is it? Vauxhall, or: “This Gigantic Roundabout Got Too Horny”;

    What is there to do locally? I’ve been to Vauxhall two significant times in my life: once to see an under-the-arches musical about bathhouses which lurched from the surreal into the manic when Su Actual Pollard stood up at the end of it to lead the audience in a standing ovation, Su Pollard turning to the rest of us, roaring us to our feet to clap, all eyes on Pollard, Pollard furious, almost, with the clapping, Pollard replete in woven clothing inked in every neon colour beneath the sun, Su Pollard stalking Vauxhall like an apparition or a ghost; and ii. I went there this weekend, got drunk on a docked boat, lost on a building site and hit my head multiple times on a low ceiling before falling fully asleep in an Uber, passing out so entirely that my rating went down somewhere so low into the doldrums that I can no longer be picked up. So I suppose the answer to the question actually posed at the start of this is: anything you want, really, in Vauxhall. Anything your tiny mind can imagine.

    Alright, how much are they asking? In a rare zig from the format of “London Rental Opportunity of the Week,” this property is actually fully for sale, and will cost you £3 million. Three million pounds.

    What would you do if you were rich? Would you:

    1. Fill a swimming pool w/ champagne, luxuriate in it until you die—

    2. Turn your enormous mansion-surrounding garden into a sort of exquisite zoo, full of giraffes and rhinos and men in straw boaters handing out balloons, and free cotton candy, a sort of fantastic magical Disneyworld, all for you—

    3. Buy a football club, or an F1 team, or just eat at Nobu, like, every single night, fly first class, holiday in the Maldives, pay to have Richard Branson killed by the world’s most expensive hitman, anything you want, live in a fantasy world—

    4. Chain some lads to the floor of your basement and just Fuck. Them. To. Absolute. Bits. Mate.

    If you chose 4: correct, that is the correct choice to make.

    And may I also recommend to you this beautiful property in Vauxhall, which costs more than you will earn in your lifetime – more than you will earn in five lifetimes – which is tastefully decorated, gorgeously laid out, perfectly positioned (in Zone 1!), has both a conservatory and a spacious designer garden, modern luxuries throughout, and then also, should you choose to descend of an evening, it has an entire dungeon in it, dedicated to fucking:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180119_fuckdungeon2.jpg

    Like: look how perfectly arranged this sentence is:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180119_fuckdungeon6.jpg

    Additional street access… bwuahahaha.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180119_fuckdungeon3.jpg

    I have so many questions about the fuck dungeon, obviously, but mainly one pure and shining concern: that the Fuck Dungeon House not be sold to someone who will not maintain the dungeon of fuck. Some young family. You know, he works in the City and went to Oxford, she has a very successful interior design blog, they have a three-year-old called “Jessamyn” and they want to buy the fuck dungeon. “Yah, great space down here,” one of them is saying. “Maybe we could turn it into a nurs—” No. No. I forbid it. You keep it as a fuck dungeon. If you didn’t want a fuck dungeon in your house, why did you buy a house with a fuck dungeon in it? Exactly. For me, the fuck dungeon is a dealbreaker, the promise of its sanctity being the only condition of the sale. I fear a lot of things in this life, but some normie couple buying this fuck dungeon and turning it into anything that isn’t “a more complex and intense fuck dungeon” is highest among it.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180119_fuckdungeon4.jpg

    (Side note, but, like: some dudes have taken a real arseful in this place, and you can’t escape that. You cannot get that out of a room. You can’t paper over a vibe that musky and powerful with a bit of Farrow & Ball and some £200-a-roll wallpaper. Doesn’t matter if you crank a skylight into this thing and put a pool table in the middle. Some vibes cannot ever truly be aired out. No way a fuck dungeon, once converted into and then used as a fuck dungeon, can ever be anything other than a fuck dungeon. Some doors you cannot walk back on once you’ve been through them. Putting a fuck dungeon in the basement of your house is one of them.)

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180119_fuckdungeon5_0.jpg

    Questions about the fuck dungeon, in no particular order:

    1. Once you have committed to putting a fuck dungeon in your house, how do you reverse out of that decision, i.e. by selling the house the fuck dungeon underpins? Like: does there come a time, in your life, when you look down the gloomy stairs at your fuck dungeon, hands on hips, and think: “This is a young man’s game. It’s not for me any more.”

    2. Are there specialist contractors who can install a fuck dungeon for you, or do you need to buy all the parts and just sort of put it together yourself?

    3. How often, once you’ve put a fuck dungeon in, do you actually fuck in a dungeon? A fuck dungeon always feels like a good idea, doesn’t it, and then eight months roll by and there’s dust on the shackles and you realise you haven’t been rimmed by a gimp for like two entire seasons. Not a perfect example, but one I’m going with nonetheless: I bought a Nintendo Switch in November. Really thought I’d use it more. Like: I love it, obviously. It’s great. Used it on the train. Mario Kart for Christmas. But now it’s there… some days, I just don’t play with it. I’ll look at it. I’ll think about it. And then I’ll go to sleep. I feel like this is very much what owning a fuck dungeon is like.

    4. The seller is trying to shift this £3 million townhouse via a free gmail address, namely dungeonhousevauxhall@gmail.com, and all this makes me think is: was dungeonhouse@gmail.com already taken? How many dungeon houses are there?

    5. Does the dungeon street access mean, and bear with me, that a pair of padlocked double-doors open out directly into the street, into which blinking pale nude boys can escape after a weekend of being rigorously fucked, searing beneath the flood of sunlight around them, and if so what are the neighbours like? Are they nice about that?

    I truly think Fuck Dungeon House has ruined all other houses for me. I’m going to go home tonight and just look at all the rooms and just be disappointed I can’t be pinned mechanically to the floor of them and shagged. Please – if you have £3 million spare, and you are exceptionally horny – please, please buy this house. Do this fuck dungeon the honour it deserves.

     

  • Alarming Rise In The Number Of Gun-Store Burgalaries Across America

    According to a new explosive report from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF), for the fifth consecutive year, the reported number of burglaries at gun stores across the United States is surging.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180119_gunstores2.jpg

    The ATF’s annual Federal Firearms Licensee Burglary and Robbery Statistics report released on Tuesday paints a troubling truth of organized crime gangs targeting gun stores.

    The statistics are shocking: the number of robberies of gun stores reported to the ATF have increased 227 percent since 2013 and burglaries rose 71 percent during the same period.

    The report found there were 577 gun store burglaries in 2017, an increase from 558 in 2016. “Since 2013, 27,685 guns were reported stolen in 2,315 burglaries from gun stores licensed by the federal government, including 7,841 guns last year,” said the Giffords Law Center.

     

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180119_gunstores1.jpg

    The Giffords Law Center expresses concern how the federal law does not require gun dealers to follow a strict code for building security or securing storage of inventory.

    On the state level, some states like New Jersey have more stringent security requirements for gun shops, which has led to a decline in gun store robberies. According to the Giffords Law Center, “over the past five years in New Jersey, there have been just two reported burglaries with a total of three guns stolen.”

    David Chipman, senior policy advisor at Giffords, and a retired ATF Special Agent for two decades issued the following announcement:

    “Criminals know that gun stores can be easy targets to obtain armfuls of firearms in a matter of minutes. Every successful break-in opens a new threat to our community and puts law enforcement officers at risk.

    While we should all be alarmed and outraged that gun store burglaries increased for five years in a row, it’s important to remember that theft from gun stores is preventable — just look at what’s happening in New Jersey.

    When states require gun dealers to take responsible steps to prevent their stores from being burglarized — by properly securing not only their stores, but the firearms themselves — they eliminate the risk of thieves taking off with weapons. We know how to solve this problem, but we need more states to acknowledge this issue and put best practices for reducing gun store theft into action.”  

    A spokeswoman for the ATF provided a statement to Bloomberg about the manner, who said it is investigating into the data in order “to identify causation for the uptick in these types of crimes over the past five years.”

    Perhaps, our article titled “The Next Hurdle For Retailers,” could offer some insight into the ebb and flows of the flourishing organized crime networks in the United States. However, this week’s exposure of out of control gun store robberies is a telling sign that the organized crime networks are heavily arming themselves. The one question we ask: why?

  • Russia Accuses US Of Carving Out "Alternative Government" In Syria As Mattis Says No Longer Focusing On Terrorism

    Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has accused the United States of working to carve out “an alternative government” on Syrian soil in statements made at a UN press briefing related to the recent Turkish military build-up poised to assault Syrian Kurdish areas of Northern Syria. Lavrov’s words come after Secretary of State Rex Tillerson pledged in a speech on Wednesday that US military forces would remain in Syria indefinitely until various objectives are met, which include Syrian government transition and the curtailing of Iran’s influence.

    Lavrov said “It’s a fact that US forces are seriously involved in creating alternative government bodies on vast part of the Syrian territory. And this, of course, absolutely contradicts their own obligations, which they committed to on numerous occasions, including at the UN Security Council, on maintaining the sovereignty and the territorial integrity on Syria.”

     

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    Image via Anadolou News Agency

    The Russian FM further accused the US of contradicting its previous claim that US troops – which number at least 2,000 according to recent Pentagon statements – were only in Syria to fight the Islamic State and not wage a proxy war against the Syrian government and its allies.

    The prior US policy of regime change in Syria, which began under the Obama administration and intensified under a CIA program, was something many analysts perceived that President Trump had abandoned – consistent with earlier campaign promises. In the summer of last year Trump shut down the CIA program – widely reported to be the agency’s largest covert program – even while boosting support for the Pentagon program to arm and train the predominately Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

    Rex Tillerson told me many times that the only reason for their presence there [in Syria] is defeating Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISL). Now they have some much more long-standing plans,” Lavrov said further of the inconsistency in US policy. “We will have to take this into account and look for solutions that won’t allow the destruction of Syrian sovereignty.”

    At the start of this week the Pentagon rolled out with deeply controversial plans for the US coalition in Syria to establish a 30,000-strong new border security force primarily utilizing the SDF, which many analysts see ultimately as a US commitment to the partitioning of Syria along ethnic and sectarian lines. And Russia has now issued a formal complaint alleging as much. 

    Meanwhile US Defense Secretary James Mattis unveiled a bit of a foreign policy 180 when in a speech on Friday he said that US national security focus was no longer terrorism, but “competition between great powers.” He said the US faced “growing threats from revisionist powers as different as China and Russia,” while unveiling a new national defense strategy.

  • The Pope's WW3 Warning: The World Is At "The Very Limit" Of Nuclear War

    Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

    Pope Francis said this week he was really afraid of the danger of a nuclear war and that the world now stood at “the very limit.”  According to his comments, the world is one step away from a devastating nuclear war.

     

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180119_pope.jpg

    The Pope made the comment as he flew off for a visit to Chile and Peru, and the statement comes just after Hawaii issued a false missile alert that provoked panic in the U.S. state and highlighted the risk of possible unintended nuclear war with North Korea. The mistaken alert underscored the risk of potentially entering an unintentional war with North Korea. Hawaii Democratic Representative Tulsi Gabbard said Sunday that the false alert shows the need for direct negotiations with North Korea.

    When asked if he was worried about the possibility of nuclear war, Pope Francis said:

    I think we are at the very limit. I am really afraid of this.

    One accident is enough to precipitate things.”

    Although the Pope did not specifically mention Hawaii or North Korea, he did say that stockpiling nuclear weapons is against the teaching of the Catholic church. According to One America News Network, Pope Francis has often discussed the danger of nuclear warfare. Back in November, the Pope appeared to harden the Catholic Church’s teaching against nuclear weapons, saying countries should not stockpile them even for the purpose of deterrence.

    As reporters boarded his plane bound for Chile, Vatican officials handed out a photograph taken in 1945 that shows a young Japanese boy carrying his dead brother on his shoulders following the U.S. nuclear attack on Nagasaki.

     

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180119_pope1.jpg

    “I was moved when I saw this. The only thing I could think of adding were the words ‘the fruit of war’,” Pope Francis said, referring to a caption put on the back of the image.

    “I wanted to have it reprinted and distributed because an image like this can be more moving than a thousand words. That is why I wanted to share it with you,” he said.

  • Tax Reform And Trump's Chinese Trade Deficit Conundrum

    Authored by MN Gordon via EconomicPrism.com,

    Most things come easier said than done.  Take President Trump’s posture on trade with China…

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180118_mng.png

    Trump doesn’t want a bigger trade deficit with China.  He wants a smaller trade deficit with China.  In fact, reducing the trade deficit with China is one of Trump’s promises to Make America Great Again.  In May 2016, he even told a campaign crowd:

    “We can’t continue to allow China to rape our country and that’s what they’re doing.  It’s the greatest theft in the history of the world.”

    Yet as Trump approaches the conclusion of his first year in office, he’s achieved the exact opposite of what he said.  The trade deficit with China hasn’t gotten smaller.  It has gotten bigger.  Actually, it has gotten a lot bigger.

    For example, the U.S. trade deficit with China from January through November 2017 was approximately $342 billion.  Over this same period in 2016, the trade deficit with China was $317.4 billion.  This amounts to a 7.7 percent widening of the U.S. trade deficit with China that has occurred on Trump’s watch.

    What gives?  Is China better at manipulating its currency than the U.S.?  Does China somehow outplay the U.S. when it comes to both trade strategy and strategery?

    Certainly, The Donald will get to the bottom of it…

    Unintended Consequences

    Earlier this week President Trump called up Chinese President Xi Jinping to have a frank phone conversation on the matter.  From what we gather, Trump “expressed disappointment that the United States’ trade deficit has continued to grow.”

    We don’t know what Jinping said in response.  But what he could’ve said was, “Donald, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet!”

    One of the unintended consequences of increasing the budget deficit to pay for the GOP tax reform bill is that it also increases the trade deficit.  In other words, the budget imbalance between taxes and government expenditures has a direct impact on foreign trade imbalances.  In an article published in Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies, economist Ralph W. Huenemann explains:

    “In 2016, the American government budgets carried a fiscal deficit of $865 billion, and the balance of payments showed a trade deficit of $521 billion.  A surplus of private savings (including substantial retained corporate profits) of about $344 billion over investment partially offset the budget deficit, but as long as there is such a massive deficit on government budgets, the net inflow of imports will continue.  This is inherent in the nature of national income.  No President, Donald Trump or any other, can change this reality without tackling the government budget deficit.

    So if Trump doesn’t want a trade deficit with China then he needs to reduce the government’s budget deficit.  However, reducing the government’s budget deficit is near impossible under the new GOP tax reform bill.  Hence, President Trump is left with a weak hand of bluster.

    Tax Reform and Trump’s Chinese Trade Deficit Conundrum

    This week Reuters released parts of its exclusive interview with President Trump.  On the prospect of a trade war with China, Trump remarked that he hopes a trade war won’t ensue, “But if there is, there is.”

    Trump also commented that any change in China’s purchases of U.S. Treasuries would not hurt the U.S. economy.  This is because, according to Trump, “everybody wants to buy Treasuries.”

    Let’s hope Trump knows what he’s talking about.  At the moment, China and Japan account for one-third of all foreign-held Treasuries.  However, China has currently tapered back its Treasury holdings to a four month low.  And Japan has reduced its Treasury holdings to a four year low.

    But maybe Trump’s right.  Maybe China and Japan don’t matter.  Maybe someone else – like the Swiss National Bank – will pick up the slack that’s needed to finance Trump’s deficit.

    Still, what would this get him?  It wouldn’t address his trade deficit conundrum; rather, it would make it worse.

    The point is attempting to spend a nation to prosperity using borrowed money is not without consequences.  In the short run, an illusion of wealth can be erected.  In the long run, the illusion slips into decay and disrepair at the precise moment the bill comes due.

    This is one of the tradeoffs of deficit spending based government stimulus that politicians fail to mention when promising free lunches.  Any economic boost that deficit financed tax reform delivers will be short-lived.

    Quite frankly, such a contrived economic boost is akin to burning one’s furniture to stay warm.  The heat it produces feels good while it lasts.  But once the furniture’s all burned up, it’s game over.

  • This Is How Chinese Bitcoin Buyers Are Getting Around The Government Ban

    China stunned cryptocurrency traders in September when, after announcing a crackdown on ICOs, it went a step further and warned all crypto exchanges operating in mainland China that they would need to wind down their operations by October – effectively killing the nascent cryptocurrency and blockchain industry.

    Observers expected this to be a huge blow…though Chinese trading volume had already fallen dramatically since January 2017 when authorities forced local exchanges to raise fees and implement AML controls, it was still a crucial market for bitcoin. However, the drop in Chinese trading didn’t stop the pioneering cryptocurrency from rocketing to an all-time high around $20,000 a few months later.

    As we noted at the time, several of the largest China-based exchanges, from OKCoin to Binance.com, and wallet services too sought a second life in friendlier Asian jurisdictions, applying for licenses in Japan – solo or via partners – setting up over-the-counter shops in Hong Kong, or laying the groundwork to operate from Singapore and South Korea.

     

    BTC

    But crypto enthusiasts living in mainland China can still transact domestically: But instead of these transactions being routed through exchanges, they’re negotiated on over-the-counter (OTC) trading platforms like Huobi, OKEx and OTCBTC, according to a Yahoo Finance  report.

    Of course, Chinese buyers who still want to participate in the market are doing so at significantly higher prices. On OTC platforms, prices are 10% to 20% higher than the prices on traditional exchanges. On Jan. 18, when bitcoin was trading at $11,730 on Coinbase, the biggest US brokerage, the lowest price on the Huobi OTC platform was 84,000 yuan, or $13,085.

    The premium that Chinese investors pay is a direct result of the limited OTC coin supply caused by government regulations. For more sophisticated traders, there’s an arbitrage opportunity: Traders will buy cryptocurrencies cheaply on foreign exchanges and immediately sell on domestic OTC platforms at a higher price. But there are risks, including price volatility, slow transaction times and China’s strict control on capital outflows.

    On platforms like OTCBTC, buying cryptocurrencies is like shopping on Ebay: choose the coin you want, then offers from multiple sellers appear. Buyers can link their bank accounts or use popular mobile payment methods like Alibaba’s Alipay or Tencent’s WeChat Pay. Once they get their hands on the coins, investors can trade them on any exchange in the world.

    OTC

    Chart showing number of daily transactions on OTCBTC

    As we highlighted in November,  several China-based trading platforms, including Huobi and OKEx, which were among the largest exchanges in the world and were included in the ban, decided to take advantage of a loophole: China hadn’t outlawed cryptocurrencies, it just outlawed the operation of exchanges. So, many of the companies that decided to stay soon opened OTC platforms and promoted their new operations by waiving transaction fees.

    According to  Yahoo Finance, while it’s hard to measure the exact size of OTC trading across all platforms, one single seller at Huobi recorded more than 10,000 separate bitcoin transactions in the past month. Another Taiwan-based platform, OTCBTC, which now offers more than 40 cryptocurrencies, boasted $100 million in transactions in the first 50 days after it launched last October.

    Meanwhile, Huobi and other Chinese companies are still operating crypto exchanges in friendlier, overseas markets.

    “Now our focus is the overseas expansion,” Huobi CEO Leon Li tells Yahoo Finance. “More than half of our newly-registered users are from outside China.”

    However, concerns about regulatory risks aren’t going away either. Huobi, for example, marks the reminder in red that buyers should not mention sensitive words like “BTC” or “bitcoin” in their bank transfers in order to reduce the likelihood of having the transaction blocked.

     

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Today’s News 19th January 2018

  • Army Major: "We're Killing These Kids, We're Breaking The Army!"

    Authored by Major Danny Sjursen via TheAmericanConservative.com,

    Our soldiers are still redeploying at a frenetic pace that cannot keep up with reality – and the cracks are showing…

     

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180118_army.png

    I’ll admit I was taken aback. This senior officer and mentor – with nearly 28 years of military service – wasn’t one for hyperbole. No, he believed what he was saying to me just then.

    “We’re killing these kids, we’re breaking the army!” he exclaimed.

    He went on to explain the competing requirements for standard, conventional army units – to say nothing of the overstretched Special Forces – in 2018: balancing Russia in Eastern Europe, deterrence rotations in South Korea, advise and assist missions in Africa. Add to that deployments to the usual hotspots in Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan.

    He was genuinely concerned about the physical and emotional toll on the active-duty force, pushed to its limits by 17 years of perpetual combat. After all, with high military suicide rates now labeled the “new normal,” and a recent succession of accidental training deaths, it seems reasonable to wonder whether we are, indeed, “killing [our] kids.”

    The overall effects of this rapid operations tempo on morale and readiness are difficult to measure in a disciplined, professional, all-volunteer military such as the one the United States possesses. What we do know is that despite former president Obama’s ongoing promises that “the tide of war is receding” and that America could finally “start nation-building at home,” nothing of the sort occurred then, or is now, under President Trump. Though the U.S. military (thankfully) no longer maintains six-figure troop counts in either Iraq or Afghanistan, American soldiers are still there, as well as serving in 70 percent of the world’s countries in one capacity or another in what has become a “generational war.” America’s troops are still being killed, though in admittedly fewer numbers. Nevertheless, U.S. servicemen continued to die in combat in several countries in 2017, including Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia, Yemen, and Niger.

    After major drawdowns in Iraq (2011) and Afghanistan (2014), many soldiers, myself included, looked forward to longer “dwell time” at home stations and, just maybe, something resembling peace and even normalcy.

    It was not to be. Aside from deployments to Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria, conventional U.S. Army brigades currently support regular overseas rotations to Kuwait, South Korea, and Eastern Europe. To use just one example, the 1st Armored Division webpage currently boasts that the division has soldiers supporting 20 missions on five continents. Of my three former classmates and colleagues in the West Point History Department (2014-2016), two are currently deployed: one in Romania, another to the ubiquitous Mid-East region. That’s just about as busy as we all were back in the bad old days of 2006-2007.

    The military – and the Army in particular – brought some of this upon itself. As conventional ground combat elements (of which the Army owns the preponderance) withdrew from Iraq and Afghanistan, and President Obama signaled a strategic pivot to Asia, U.S. Army leaders became understandably concerned. The Asia pivot would, logically, lean more heavily on the Air Force and Navy—especially when new military doctrine took the (exclusive) name “Air-Sea Battle.” As the economy struggled and budgets tightened, the various service chiefs fought to convince Congress and administration kingmakers of their continued “relevance.” If the Army didn’t appear busy—engaged in a countless number of vital missions—well, it’d be hard to justify its current budget.

    It should come as no surprise that around this time the Army touted the versatility of its Regionally Aligned Forces (RAF) brigades—units trained and tailored to support an array of missions for specific geographic combatant commanders. Army leaders also emphasized threats from Russia and North Korea and the need for deterrent brigades on the ground in those theaters. And, with Special Operations Command under strain, the Army also provided six new Security Force Assistance Brigades (SFABs) to carry some of the advise-and-assist workload around the globe. This is not to say that Army leaders fabricated threats or invented missions. It’s all far more complex. Rather, brutal budget squabbles on Capitol Hill combined with increasingly politicized foreign policy threat assessments created an atmosphere where demonstrating “relevance” and “busyness” presented the only sure path to funding at the rates to which the various services had become accustomed.

    Relevance is a double-edged sword—well-justified budgets require a frenzied operational pace and an overwrought Army.

    Some troopers, at least, appear fed up with the scope and pace of deployments in year 18 of the conflict formerly known as the “war on terror.” No one is publicly sounding the alarm, but there are signals—if you know where to look. When Vice President Mike Pence made a surprise holiday season visit to Kabul and publicly praised U.S. forces in Afghanistan, one observer described the crowd as “subdued,” and notedseveral troops stood with their arms crossed or their hands folded behind their backs and listened, but did not applaud.” Polls also demonstrate that although the current president is slightly more popular among the military than the general public, among officers Trump counts only a 30 percent approval rate. More concerning are the February 2017 polls indicating that military service member satisfaction has dropped 50 percent since 2009, due in part, one assumes, to never-ending deployments and time spent away from families. And, among the ever-strained Special Operations forces, reports indicate that mental distress and suicide are again on the rise.

    As it stands, the system just about holds together – no doubt due to the determination of leaders and dutiful sacrifice of soldiers – but one wonders whether the active component force could truly weather even one major regional crisis. Something, it seems, would have to give – a drawdown in other missions, compressed training schedules, or—heaven forbid!—calling up the reserves, something American politicians certainly wish to avoid.

    The all-volunteer force was always a devil’s bargain: by cutting out the citizenry in the form of a draft out of the equation, presidents, pols, and military leadership could move soldiers around the chessboard with fewer checks on their authority and the decision-making process.

    That’s all well and good, until the system cracks. The president’s modest troop escalations in Afghanistan and Iraq, if combined with a (ever more likely) shooting war in Korea, could be just the thing to “break” the professional, volunteer military.

    At that point Americans would have some tough decisions to make: ante up some cash and bodies to keep the U.S. military on top, or, just maybe, do less. Let’s hope it never comes to that. In the meantime, count on Congress and the American people to cover their eyes and let the “war on terror’s” third straight president run its cherished heroes into the ground.

    What a way to say “thanks for your service!”

    *  *  *

    Major Danny Sjursen is a U.S. Army officer and former history instructor at West Point. He served tours with reconnaissance units in Iraq and Afghanistan, and has written a memoir and critical analysis of the Iraq War, Ghost Riders of Baghdad: Soldiers, Civilians, and the Myth of the Surge

  • The State Of 'Freedom' Worldwide (According To Democratic Think-Tanks)

    Democratic watchdog organization Freedom House has released its annual ranking of the world’s most free and the world’s most suppressed nations. For the twelfth year in a row, global freedom has been found to have declined.

    As Staista’s Martin Armstrong notes, 71 countries experienced a decline in freedom with only 35 making a move in the right direction. Of the 195 countries assessed in 2017, 45 percent were rated as ‘free’, 30 percent as ‘partly free’, and 25 percent as ‘not free’.

    Infographic: The State of Freedom Worldwide | Statista

    You will find more statistics at Statista

    The United States, while still classed as ‘free’, saw a year-on.year decrease in its score, from 89/100 in 2016 to 86/100.

    According to Freedom House, this is mainly due to a fall in its political rights, citing “growing evidence of Russian interference in the 2016 election”, “violations of basic ethical standards by the new administration” and “a reduction in government transparency” as key factors.

    One wonders what a Republican Think Tank would ‘think’?

  • Is San Francisco Too Expensive For "San Francisco"-Based Startups?

    By Elissa Maercklein of Priceonomics

    Silicon Valley – the promised land of innovation, venture capital, and exorbitant costs of living. And many of the most valuable companies from the region, such as Square, Stripe, Airbnb, Uber are all based in the city of San Francisco.

    asd

    Increasingly, however, it’s hard for startups to compete in the market for talent in the infamously expensive city of San Francisco.

    In March 2017, a blog post by Zapier CEO, Wade Foster, announced they would offer a $10,000 “De-Location Package” to employees that would move out of San Francisco. Fintech startup Varo Money announced in July that they plan to move their headquarters from San Francisco to Salt Lake City, citing high home prices among other reasons.

    We decided to analyze whether startups based in San Francisco actually had offices elsewhere as well. Are companies located in the city for fundraising and marketing purposes, but also creating offices in other cities and countries? Is this phenomenon limited later stage companies only or are early stage companies saving costs this way too?

    We took a look at the startups headquartered in San Francisco to determine if and when they expand to locations in other regions and where those regions are. Specifically, we pulled data on the 903 companies headquartered in San Francisco that have more than $5 million in funding from our Craft dataset of companies and their locations. 

    We found that 38% of San Francisco tech companies companies had locations elsewhere – with New York as the top U.S. city for an additional location and the U.K. as the top country for an additional location. Even for early stage startups (defined as raising $5-10MM in this analysis), 21% of San Francisco companies also had offices elsewhere. 

    ***

    For context, the table below shows the distribution of these startups in buckets based on total funding that we will use for this analysis.

    As one might expect, there are far more startups in SF with less than $50 million in funding than there are those with more than $500 million in funding. While many startups aspire to be the next Uber or Airbnb, the distribution is heavily skewed towards those with lower amounts of funding.

     

    as

    Data source: Craft

    To begin, we analyzed the distribution of companies that have solely their San Francisco location and those that have office locations outside of San Francisco. Of the 903 companies that fit our criteria, 339 startups (roughly 38%) have locations outside of San Francisco, which means that 564 of companies only have their primary SF office. See the companies with locations outside of San Francisco here.

    We then categorized companies by funding amount to see if there is a relationship between the amount of funding a startup has received and whether they have expanded to office locations outside of San Francisco. Our hypothesis was that companies with more funding have more capabilities to expand into new and potentially lower cost locations but we wanted to see if smaller, earlier-stage companies also had offices elsewhere. The graphical display of these two distributions clearly show that as the funding amount increases, the percentage of companies that have office locations outside of San Francisco increases, while the inverse (companies with only their San Francisco location) decreases.

     

    sfd
    Data source: Craft

    The graph below shows a clear trend that companies with higher amounts of funding have locations outside of their primary headquarters in San Francisco. As companies grow, they definitely have offices outside of San Francisco but it’s important to note here that even a significant portion of smaller companies have locations elsewhere.

     

    asd
    Data source: Craft

     

    Taking the analysis one step deeper, we also took a look at the percentage of companies with locations outside the United States, in addition to those with locations just outside of San Francisco. Out of the 903 startups in our dataset, there are 219 (roughly 24%) of companies with locations outside of the US, compared to 38% that just have locations outside of San Francisco.

    dfg

    Data source: Craft

    Next, we analyzed what the top cities in the United States where these companies have additional locations. The table below shows the top 10 cities where startups headquartered in San Francisco have additional locations. New York tops the list with 128 companies that have New York locations.

     

    sdf

    Data source: Craft

    Finally, we did a similar analysis to see what countries are most popular for startups to have additional locations. The table below shows the top 10 countries where startups headquartered in San Francisco have expanded to for international office locations. The U.K. tops the list with 105 companies from our dataset that have international United Kingdom locations, which represents roughly 48% of our subset of companies that have international locations. Also of note is that three of the top four countries are English-speaking countries

     

    sdf
    Data source: Craft

    Key takeaways:

    • 38% of startups headquartered in San Francisco with more than $5 million in funding have an additional location outside of San Francisco
    • Companies with higher amounts of funding have, in general, office locations outside of their primary headquarters in San Francisco; however, a significant portion of smaller companies have locations elsewhere, as well.
    • The most popular US city for SF startups to have an additional location is in New York City. The most popular country for SF startups to have an additional international location is the United Kingdom.

  • Why Are Millennials Eating Toxic Tide-Pods?

    A new internet meme called ‘The Tide Pod Challenge‘ has circulated social media channels with the millennial generation taking some severe risks to their health. In a period of wage stagnation and a job environment that is deteriorating, the hopeless millennials have resorted to stupid social media challenges in the hopes of gaining fame, and perhaps the chance for a better life. As we know, that is never the case, unless a brilliant millennial monetize the content.

     

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180110_pod.png

    Nevertheless, in the first 15-days of the new year, as millennials are on break from overpriced universities, poison control centers across the country have received 39 calls of teens poisoning themselves after they ate the highly toxic laundry pod.

    On Tuesday, the American Association of Poison Control Centers (AAPCC) released a statement warning Americans about the “potential poison exposure to single-load laundry packets.”

    “The ‘laundry packet challenge’ is neither funny nor without serious health implications,” said Stephen Kaminski, JD, AAPCC’s CEO and Executive Director.

    “The intentional misuse of these products poses a real threat to the health of individuals. We have seen a large spike in single-load laundry packet exposures among teenagers since these videos have been uploaded,” Kaminski added.

    The challenge starts with a dumb millennial bitting into a brightly colored pod of death from tide and chewing the packet until they foam from the mouth. Yes, that is the challenge in its entirety…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Entertaining commentary from Jay Uchiha, “we three seconds into the new year and people already doing dumb shit.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    More stupid millennials poisoning themselves with ‘The Tide Pod Challenge’…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Poison control centers across the country have handled over 50,000 calls about liquid laundry packet exposures over the past five years. While a majority of the exposures are from unintentional misuse by children under the age of five, the recent trend of 13- to 19-year-olds have been responsible for more than 130 intentional exposures since 2016, according to the (AAPCC).

    “Everyone needs to be aware of the dangers of swallowing the contents of a single-load laundry packet. Only use the packets for their intended use and be sure to store them up and away,” said Kaminski.

    Consumer Reports warns about the ‘The Tide Pod Challenge.’ Their tweet outlines how the challenge may seem like a joke, but ingesting the dangerous chemicals could be deadly.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    In a statement from Tide’s parent company, Procter & Gamble, representative Petra Renck wrote, “Nothing is more important to us than the safety of people who use our products. We are deeply concerned about conversations related to intentional and improper use of liquid laundry pacs and have been working with leading social media networks to remove harmful content that is not consistent with their policies.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Mention of eating Tide pods appeared as early as 2015, when satirical website The Onion published a column comparing them to candy. Then in March 2017, a video by College Humor titled Don’t Eat the Laundry Pods brought it back to the surface, featuring college students who were tempted to eat the pods. As of Jan 16, the video has more than three million views,” said Channel News Asia.

  • Thinking The Unthinkable: Nuclear War With North Korea

    Authored by Richard Bitzinger via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    Is the Trump administration prepping the American people – indeed, the world – for a war against North Korea? It certainly seems so. US President Donald Trump is constantly needling North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, comparing the size of their respective “nuclear buttons,” while during a speech to the United Nations in September he promised to “totally destroy North Korea” if it was believed to be a threat to the United States.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180118_nuke.png

    Trump’s generals – the only other people he seems to trust, outside of his immediate family – appear to be playing along. The head of the US Marine Corps told his troops that “there’s a war coming.” H R McMaster, Trump’s national security adviser, also seems pumped up for conflict. According to recent articles, McMaster feels that traditional deterrence will not work on Kim, and that it is “almost impossible to overstate the threat from a nuclear-armed North Korea.”

    In apparent response, the US military seems to be gradually yielding to the idea of war with North Korea. A recent New York Times article ominously suggested that the military is quietly preparing for “a last resort: war with North Korea.” US forces are practicing quick-reaction mobilizations and air-assault exercises, sending Special Operations forces to South Korea, and deploying additional bombers, including B-2s, to Guam.

    The US military insists that it just wants to be prepared for any contingency. However, every day it seems more and more conceivable that a US-North Korean war could break out.

    Suppose they gave a war…

    Admittedly, there is a wide gap between conceiving a war with North Korea and actually undertaking one – and thank goodness for that. However, conceptualizations are often the first step toward action, and this raises two big concerns.

    The first worry, of course, is that the Trump administration could simply talk itself into a war. Saber-rattling and mobilizations can have the effect of self-fulfilling prophecy. The more one talks about war, the more it seems inevitable. This sense of inevitability, of being destinedto fight, was one of the more powerful factors in the outbreak of World War I. This fore-ordainment also helped spark the 1991 Gulf War and the 2003 Iraq war.

    More important, however, the Trump administration seems to have no idea how it should and could fight a war against North Korea. The United States has never engaged in an open and direct conflict with a nuclear-armed power. How does it fight such a war without setting off a nuclear response?

    The unlikely ground invasion

    In the first place, a ground invasion is probably out of the question. South Korea would never allow the US to use its territory as a launching pad for an attack on the North, and Seoul would certainly not join the US in such a foolhardy act.

    Even if US forces could cross the heavily defended Demilitarized Zone, they would face a huge and obstinate opposing force; most of the North Korean military may consist of obsolete weaponry, but it has a tremendous advantage in numbers, and the North Koreans would be fighting on their territory for their country. And if they began to lose, what would stop them from resorting to nuclear weapons?

    Moreover, such military action would play directly into Pyongyang’s hands. The North Koreans are already obsessed with the idea that the US wants to destroy them. A unilateral attack would only prove their fears are justified, and that might be sufficient to provoke a nuclear response.

    In addition, unilateral US military action would almost certainly engender global opprobrium. China would be livid that the US was destabilizing regional security. The Western alliance would be perhaps irretrievably ruptured, both in Europe and in Northeast Asia.

    The myth of the limited air campaign

    If the United States were to limit itself to bombing North Korea – using aircraft and cruise missiles – what would that accomplish? Trying to punish North Korea by using air attacks would again simply add to already high levels of North Korean paranoia that the US is trying to obliterate the country and eliminate the Kim regime. That could also incite a nuclear response.

    Could a US air campaign simply try to target North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction (WMD) – that is, its nuclear-weapons sites, missile factories, and missile systems? In other words, engage in a round of muscular counter-proliferation?

    That might work, if the United States had a very good idea where all of Kim’s WMD were located, and if it had a more than likely chance of destroying them all in one fell swoop. However, it is very likely that North Korea’s WMD complex is widely dispersed and heavily protected. Much of it is probably underground, in bomb-proof facilities.

    Consequently, it is unlikely that US air strikes would succeed in radically denuclearizing North Korea. At the same time, it could just as easily provoke the North Koreans into retaliating against the United States, using whatever nuclear capacities it had left.

    Would you like to play a game?

    In the end, the whole Trumpian war scenario against North Korea starts to resemble a sad, real-life imitation of the classic 1983 movie WarGames.

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    In that film, a supercomputer used to simulate nuclear war-fighting almost launches a real nuclear war, until it learns that, in such a scenario, “the only winning move is not to play.”

    Let’s hope that there are some people in the Trump administration who have watched this movie.

  • "Explosive", "Shocking" And "Alarming" FISA Memo Set To Rock DC, "End Mueller Investigation"

    All hell is breaking loose in Washington D.C. tonight after a four-page memo detailing extensive FISA court abuse was made available to the entire House of Representatives Thursday. The contents of the memo are so explosive, says Journalist Sara Carter, that it could lead to the removal of senior officials in the FBI and the Department of Justice and the end of Robert Mueller’s special counsel investigation.

    These sources say the report is “explosive,” stating they would not be surprised if it leads to the end of Robert Mueller’s Special Counsel investigation into President Trump and his associates. –Sara Carter

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    A source close to the matter tells Fox News that “the memo details the Intelligence Committee’s oversight work for the FBI and Justice, including the controversy over unmasking and FISA surveillance.” An educated guess by anyone who’s been paying attention for the last year leads to the obvious conclusion that the report reveals extensive abuse of power and highly illegal collusion between the Obama administration, the FBI, the DOJ and the Clinton Campaign against Donald Trump and his team during and after the 2016 presidential election.

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    Lawmakers who have seen the memo are calling for its immediate release, while the phrases “explosive,” “shocking,” “troubling,” and “alarming” have all been used in all sincerity. One congressman even likened the report’s details to KGB activity in Russia. “It is so alarming the American people have to see this,” Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan told Fox News. “It’s troubling. It is shocking,” North Carolina Rep. Mark Meadows said. “Part of me wishes that I didn’t read it because I don’t want to believe that those kinds of things could be happening in this country that I call home and love so much.

    Rep. Peter King, R-N.Y., offered the motion on Thursday to make the Republican majority-authored report available to the members.

    The document shows a troubling course of conduct and we need to make the document available, so the public can see it,” said a senior government official, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the document. “Once the public sees it, we can hold the people involved accountable in a number of ways.”

    The government official said that after reading the document “some of these people should no longer be in the government.” –Sara Carter

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    Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) echoed Sara Carter’s sentiment that people might lose their job if the memo is released:

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    Deputy AG Rod Rosenstein

    I believe the consequence of its release will be major changes in people currently working at the FBI and the Department of Justice,” he said, referencing DOJ officials Rod Rosenstein and Bruce Ohr.

    Meanwhile, Rep. Matt Gatetz (R-FL) said not only will the release of this memo result in DOJ firing, but “people will go to jail.”

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    Former Secret Service agent Dan Bongino says “Take it to the bank, the FBI/FISA docs are devastating for the Dems.” 

     

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    The dossier was used in part as evidence for a warrant to surveil members of the Trump campaign, according to a story published this month. Former British spy Christopher Steele, who compiled the dossier in 2016, was hired by embattled research firm Fusion GPS. The firm’s founder is Glenn Simpson, a former Wall Street Journal reporter who has already testified before Congress in relation to the dossier. In October, The Washington Post revealed for the first time that it was the Hillary Clinton campaign and the DNC that financed Fusion GPS.

    Congressional members are hopeful that the classified information will be declassified and released to the public.

    We probably will get this stuff released by the end of the month,” stated a congressional member, who asked not to be named. –Sara Carter

    Releasing the memo to the public would require a committee vote, a source told Fox, adding that if approved, it could be released as long as there are no objections from the White House within five days

    Reactions from the citizenry have been on point: 

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    Even WikiLeaks has joined the fray, offering a reward in Bitcoin to anyone who will share the memo:

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    Oddly, the Twitter account for the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence – @HPSCI – has been mysteriously suspended.

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    Of all the recent developments in the ongoing investigation(s), this one is on the cusp of turning into a genuine happening.

  • Hungary Introduces "Stop Soros" Legislation To Fend Off Illegal Migrants By "Every Means Possible"

    Hungarian lawmakers previewed a proposed legislation package aimed at stemming the flood of mass illegal migrants through “every means possible,” including those who are aided by foreign funded NGOs such as the various organizations tied to billionaire George Soros.

    The legislative package presented during a Wednesday cabinet meeting has been referred to as the “Stop Soros Act” by government spokesman Zoltan Kovacs, in reference to the 87-year-old US-Hungarian financier who has been in a long-standing fallout with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

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    “If Soros is found to have engaged in such activity, meaning he organizes illegal immigration, then the rules will apply to him,” Kovacs said.

    While the exact details will be presented on Thursday, Hungarian media detailed three primary pillars of the new legislation outlined by Interior Minister Sándor Pintér (translated): 

    1. NGOs which participate in or support illegal immigration will be obligated to provide data to the government on their activities.
    2. Affected NGOs that receive money from abroad must pay a 25% tax, collected by the National Tax and Customs administration. 
    3. Foreign nationals and Hungarian activists who support mass illegal migration may be subject to a restraining order which requires they remain up to 5 miles from the border, with diplomats and UN representatives exempt.

    Observance of these rules, Pintér said, will be checked by the prosecutor’s office, and if it finds an infringement, it will inform the court and propose a sanction on which the court may decide. –origo.hu (translated)

    The legislation follows an October, 2017 probe into Soros’ “Open Society” network, in which Orbán instructed his intelligence services to map what he described as the networks run by the billionaire financier’s “empire” targeting his country, reported BloombergOrbán also mailed a Soros-related questionnaire to all 8 million Hungarian voters (see: Hungary Launches Anti-Soros Political Campaign).

    As an illustration of the types of assistance provided by Soros NGO’s during a Wednesday press conference, Interior Minister Pintér gave the example of someone giving a mobile phone to an illegal migrant “with the aim of showing how to get to, say Sweden.”

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    a​​​​nti-Soros billboard, Hungary

    As we noted in December, three decades ago, Soros paid for a young Viktor Orbán to study in Britain. And as recently as 2010, Soros donated $1 million to Orbán’s government to help the cleanup effort following the infamous “red sludge” disaster.

    But the once-warm relationship between the two men has deteriorated substantially over the past seven years, as Orbán has drifted further to the right. In 2014, the leader of Hungary’s Fidesz party declared he would seek to model Hungary’s government after “illiberal” democracies like the government of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

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    anti-Soros p​​​​​osters in Hungarian train station

    Of late, Orbán has accused the “open border” tycoon and philanthropist of trying to undermine European values and cultural identities by actively promoting and assisting a flood of refugees and asylum seekers from largely Muslim countries

    In 2015, Soros stated that the European Union “has to accept at least a million asylum-seekers annually for the foreseeable future. And, to do that, it must share the burden fairly.”

    In December, Soros was accused by Orbán of planning to interfere with Hungary’s upcoming April, 2018 election by distributing pro-immigration propaganda via Soros-linked NGOs. 

    Hungary is far from alone in its desire to preserve its borders, language and culture: Poland has joined Hungary’s anti-immigration stance, drawing rebuke and threats from the European Union, of which it is a member. At an early January press conference in Budapest, Viktor Orbán and Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki told reporters “The EU’s migration policy… has failed,” adding “It is clear that the European people don’t want immigration, while several European leaders are still forcing the failed immigration policy.” 

    “In terms of migration and quotas that were to be imposed on (EU) member countries we strongly reject such an approach as it infringes on sovereign decisions of member states,” Morawiecki said.

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    Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, Viktor Orbán

    Meanwhile, last year in Austria, a 31-year-old anti-immigration candidate led his party to victory in Parliamentary elections. In the Czech Republic, a populist tycoon named Andrej Babis who’s been described as the “Czech Donald Trump.” Babis led his party to a landslide victory, making him the frontrunner to become the republic’s next prime minister. Italy’s two richest regions overwhelmingly voted for autonomy over the weekend, and so on.

    That said, with his unlimited financial resources, Soros is more than capable of striking back against Orbán. The billionaire financier donated $18 billion in assets from his family office to his “Open Society” foundation, which oversees a network of dozens of nonprofits that seek to promote Soros’s political values. Incidentally, the final showdown – financial or otherwise – may be not between Soros and Orban but Soros and Putin whose wealth, according to some estimates as much as $200 billion, is orders of magnitude higher than that of Soros.

    In November, Soros responded to Orbánposting a scathing rebuttal to his website for an “anti-Soros, anti-Muslim, anti-Semitic propaganda effort.” 

    With Hungary’s health care and education systems in distress and corruption rife, the current government has sought to create an outside enemy to distract citizens. The government selected George Soros for this purpose, launching a massive anti-Soros media campaign costing tens of millions of euros in taxpayer money, stoking anti-Muslim sentiment, and employing anti-Semitic tropes reminiscent of the 1930s. The national consultation is part of an ongoing propaganda effort that has been underway since May 2015 that included the “Stop Brussels” consultation in the spring of 2017 and the referendum that vilified migrants and refugees in 2016.

    Soros went on to offer a “rebuttal”, which in several cases read more like a confirmation of Orban’s “propaganda.” You can read it here.

  • Course Uses "Pyramid Of White Supremacy" To Teach Diversity

    Authored by Kassy Dillon via Campus Reform,

    A course at Salisbury University in Maryland is using a “Pyramid of White Supremacy” to help teach students about diversity and “cultural competence.”

    The one-credit course, “Diversity and the Self,” is a required class for any student hoping to obtain an elementary education major.

    The pyramid ranks various concepts on different levels according to severity, with “Indifference” forming the base of the pyramid and “Genocide” residing at the top.

    “In a pyramid, every brick depends upon the one below it for support,” an accompanying caption explains. “If the bricks at the bottom are removed, the whole structure comes tumbling down.”

    Things like “avoiding confrontation with racist family members,” “remaining apolitical,” or saying “politics doesn’t affect me” make up the base of the Pyramid of White Supremacy, directly underneath forms of “minimization” such as “denial of white privilege” and “not believing experiences of POC [people of color].”

    The next level up is “veiled racism,” which the graphic defines to include “cultural appropriation” and a “Euro-centric curriculum.”

    Worse still, according to the pyramid, are “anti-immigration policies,” “stop and frisk” policing strategies, and “funding schools locally,” all of which fall under the category of “discrimination.”

    Above that the pyramid lists “calls for violence” such as “swastikas,” “Confederate flags,” and “the n-word,” followed by actual acts of violence like “unjust police shootings,” “lynching,” and all other hate crimes.

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    “We had to study the pyramid and also take a group quiz,” a student in the class who wishes to remain anonymous told Campus Reform, noting that the placement of certain elements on the pyramid raised eyebrows.

    “I find it ridiculous that ‘unjust police shootings’ is at the top of the list next to mass murder and genocide,” the student remarked. “The pyramid was not only biased, the way they ranked the events did not make much sense.”

    According to the syllabus, the course “reviews theories and aspects of cultural competence most relevant to teaching in diverse classrooms,” and “explores the ideals of freedom, democracy, justice, equality, equity, and human dignity from the perspective of the individual.”

    This class was extremely difficult to get through if you did not think like a liberal. Instead of teaching diversity, this class taught us that being white was a bad thing,” the student complained. “We were told that we were only privileged because we are white and basically we did not actually work for what we have.”

    Erin Stutelberg, the professor teaching the course, practices what she preaches outside of the classroom, as well. On her Facebook page, her display photo is a picture of her with a sign saying: “White Silence = Violence.”

    Campus Reform reached out to Stutelberg for comment, but has not received a response.

  • India Test Fires Nuclear-Capable ICBM, Poses Major Threat To China

    On Thursday, India successfully conducted the “first pre-induction trial” of its over 5,000-km range Agni-V intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), reported The Times of India.

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    The nuclear-capable ICBM paves the way for India to join an “elite” group of countries who can strap a nuclear bomb to an ICBM and fling it across the globe. More importantly, the development has dramatically changed the calculus of war and nuclear deterrence balance of power between India and China, putting most of China’s critical assets, including the coastal cities in range.

    The ICBM, called Agni-V, was launched on Thursday from Abdul Kalam Island, off Odisha State in eastern India, flying for about 19-minutes with a range of 3,000 miles.

    The Defense Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said, “We have successfully launched nuclear-capable ballistic missile Agni-V today.”

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    According to The Times of India’s sources, “The country’s most formidable missile will undergo one more such pre-induction trial within this year before it is inducted into the Agni-V regiment already raised by the tri-Service Strategic Forces Command (SFC) with the requisite command and control structures.”

    With the Agni-V, India is now a member of the “nuclear club” of countries with ICBMs with a range of over  5,000km such as the U.S., Russia, China, France, and the United Kingdom. The motive behind India’s development of the long-range ICBM is to deter the threat of an aggressive and expansionist China, which already has an arsenal of ICBMs.

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    The Times of India provides further insight on the nuclear capabilities of the Angi-V:

    The over 50-tonne Agni-V, designed to carry a 1.5-tonne nuclear warhead, has been tested four times in “developmental or experimental trials” earlier. The missile was tested in an “open configuration” in April 2012 and September 2013, while it was test-fired from hermetically sealed canisters mounted on transport-cum-tilting launcher trucks in January 2015 and December 2016.

    “The missile’s flight performance was tracked and monitored by radars, range stations and tracking systems all through the mission. All mission objectives were successfully met. This successful test of Agni-V reaffirms the country’s indigenous missile capabilities and further strengthens our credible deterrence,” said a defense ministry official.

    The Strategic Forces Command (SFC) called Strategic Nuclear Command of India already has regiments of the Prithvi-II (350-km), Agni-I (700-km), Agni-II (2,000-km) & Agni-III (3,000-km) missiles, which are meant to deter Pakistan. On the other hand, the Agni-IV (4,000-km) and Agni-V (over 5,000-km), have been developed to keep China in check.

    “Though the missile could theoretically hit Beijing, India’s missile technique is far below the standard,” Hu Zhiyong, a research fellow at the Institute of International Relations of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Thursday.

    While China has criticized India’s development of the Angi-V, India’s president, Ram Nath Kovind, celebrated on Twitter that the launch “makes every Indian very proud” and will “boost our strategic defense.”

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    The Indian National Congress party wrote on Twitter, “This is the culmination of a multi-decade effort under the Integrated Guided Missile Development Programme started in 1982 by the then Prime Minister, Smt Indira Gandhi.”

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    We expect that an angry verbal Chinese response, most likely in the Global Times, is imminent.

    Full press statement on the fifth flight test of the Agni-V ICBM.

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Today’s News 18th January 2018

  • Censorship World: New Zealand Fisheries Want Grisly Images Of Dead Penguins Caught In Nets Banned

    Authored by Eleanor Ainge Roy via The Guardian,

    The seafood industry in New Zealand has asked the government to withhold graphic video of dead sea life caught in trawler nets as they are potentially damaging to fisheries and to brand New Zealand.

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    A letter from five seafood industry leaders to the Ministry of Primary Industries highlights the fisheries’ growing unease with the government’s proposal to install video cameras on all commercial fishing vessels to monitor bycatch of other species and illegal fish dumping.

    The letter requests an amendment to the Fisheries Act, so video captured onboard cannot be released to the general public through a freedom of information request, frequently used by the media, campaign groups and opposition parties.

    “They [the proposed videos] also raise significant risks for MPI and for ‘New Zealand Inc’,” the letter reads, also citing concerns about invading the privacy of employees onboard, and protecting commercial and trade secrets.

    ​There are no reliable figures on the numbers of penguins, sea lions, dolphins and seals that die in fishing nets or longlines in New Zealand, but according to some researchers and environmental groups the commercial fishing industry is the main culprit for declining populations of endangered sea lions and yellow-eyed penguins.

    Only 25% of deepwater trawlers in New Zealand have government observers onboard to record bycatch and discards, according to the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research [Niwa], which relies on statistical modelling techniques to generate bycatch estimates for the 75% of boats that work unobserved.

    Niwa estimates for every kilogram of reported target catch (what the fishing boat aims to catch ) there is 0.2 kg of bycatch.

    “These are the images the fishing industry doesn’t want you to see,” said Forest & Bird’s chief executive Kevin Hague.

    “What they [the seafood industry] are saying is catching endangered penguins, dumping entire hauls of fish overboard and killing Hector’s dolphins looks really bad on TV. Well, the solution is to stop doing it, not to hide the evidence. It’s hard to think of a more credibility damaging activity than trying to change the law so the rest of us can’t see what’s really happening out there,

    Deepwater fishing vessels account for 80% of New Zealand’s annual catch and earn NZ$650m per annum in export dollars.

    Stuart Anderson, director of fisheries management for MPI, said no decision had been made regarding the seafood industry’s proposed changes to what information the government should release about their practices at sea.

    “There are many elements to consider carefully in balancing the responsibilities of transparency and public interest while protecting privacy and other sensitive information” Anderson said.

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    Brings a whole new meaning to the term ‘net neutrality’…

  • FBI Investigating Millions Of "Mishandled" Dollars Funneled From Australian Govt To Clinton Foundation

    The FBI has asked retired Australian policeman-turned investigative journalist, Michael Smith, to provide information he has gathered detailing multiple allegations of the Clinton Foundation receiving tens of millions of mishandled taxpayer funds, according to LifeZette

    “I have been asked to provide the FBI with further and better particulars about allegations regarding improper donations to the CF funded by Australian taxpayers,” Smith told LifeZette.

    Of note, the Clinton Foundation received some $88 million from Australian taxpayers between 2006 and 2014, reaching its peak in 2012-2013 – which was coincidentally (we’re sure) Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s last year in office.

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    Hillary Clinton and former Australian PM Julia Gillard 

    Smith names several key figures in his complaints of malfeasance, including Bill and Hillary Clinton and multiple Australian government officials – including senior diplomat Alexander Downer, whose conversation with Trump aide George Papadopoulos that Russia had ‘dirt’ on Hillary Clinton allegedly launched the Trump-Russia investigation (as opposed to the Fusion GPS dossier, of course). 

    Within hours of the NYT publication, the paper was immediately shredded as the information Papadopoulous told Downer was already public

    The materials Smith is giving to the FBI focus on a 2007 memorandum of understanding (MOU) between the Clinton Foundation’s HIV/AIDs Initiative (CHAI) and the Australian government. 

    Smith claims the foundation received a “$25M financial advantage dishonestly obtained by deception” as a result of actions by Bill Clinton and Downer, who was then Australia’s minister of foreign affairs. 

    Also included in the Smith materials are evidence he believes shows “corrupt October 2006 backdating of false tender advertisements purporting to advertise the availability of a $15 million contract to provide HIV/AIDS services in Papua New Guinea on behalf of the Australian government after an agreement was already in place to pay the Clinton Foundation and/or associates.”-Lifezette

    As a reminder, the Australian government announced that they would stop pouring millions of dollars into accounts linked to the Clinton charities in November of 2016 – right after Hillary Clinton lost the election. 

    The federal government confirmed to news.com.au it has not renewed any of its partnerships with the scandal-plagued Clinton Foundation, effectively ending 10 years of taxpayer-funded contributions worth more than $88 million.

    The Clinton Foundation has a rocky past. It was described as “a slush fund”, is still at the centre of an FBI investigation and was revealed to have spent more than $50 million on travel.

    Despite that, the official website for the charity shows contributions from both AUSAID and the Commonwealth of Australia, each worth between $10 million and $25 million.

    (Norway, coincidentally, also reduced its $20 million / year donations to the Clinton Foundation right after Hillary’s loss.) 

    A third complaint by Smith revolves around a “$10 million financial advantage dishonestly obtained by deception between April 1, 2008, and Sept. 25, 2008, at Washington, D.C., New York, New York, and Canberra Australia involving an MOU between the Australian government, the “Clinton Climate Initiative,” and the purported “Global Carbon Capture and Storage Institute Inc.”

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    When asked why the Clinton Foundation was chosen as a recipient of Australian taxpayer dollars, a spokesman for the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade said that all funding was used “solely for agreed development projects” and Clinton charities have “a proven track record” in helping developing countries.

  • Brandon Smith: Is The Olympic Games In South Korea A Perfect Opportunity For A False Flag Attack?

    Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

    The war rhetoric surrounding North Korea on both sides of the Pacific has never been more aggressive than it has been the past year (at least not since the Korean War). There are some people that see the entire affair as a “distraction,” a distraction that will never amount to actual conflict. I disagree with this sentiment for a number of reasons.

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    North Korea is indeed a distraction, but still a distraction in the making. That is to say, the chest beating and saber rattling are merely a prelude to the much more effective distraction of live combat and invasion in the name of regime change and “national security.” As I noted in my article “Korean War Part II: Why It’s Probably Going To Happen,” the extensive staging of military assets to the region that has not been seen in over a decade, the extremely swift advancement of North Korean missile technology to include ICBMs capable of reaching the mainland U.S., the strange and unprecedented language by China indicating that they will not intercede against an invasion of North Korea by the U.S. “if Pyongyang attacks first….” All of this and more shows a clear movement of chess pieces into place for a sudden action.

    According to these factors, I am led to believe that a false flag event blamed on North Korea, or a prodding of North Korea into taking an attack posture, is likely.

    The purposes behind such a war would be many-fold. Primarily, the final implosion of the vast financial bubbles created by central bank stimulus measures could be undertaken while the banks themselves escape public blame or prosecution.

    A geopolitical crisis large enough would provide a perfect scapegoat for an economic crisis that was going to develop eventually anyway. And, if this geopolitical crisis were initiated by a “rogue state,” along with the poor decisions of a conservative “populist” president (Trump), then the historical narrative would be complete. Future generations would talk about the “great blunder” of sovereign states and nationalists and how hubris and greed and ego led to a global fiscal disaster and unnecessary destruction. The rationale for a one world governmental authority would be planted in the minds of the populace.

    Will a war in North Korea be the trigger event for this narrative? It’s hard to say, as there are so many potential geopolitical powder kegs around the world. However, ample assets to initiate this kind of event are present around North Korea. And, unlike hot spots like Syria and Iran, North Korea offers the most immediate and tangible threat in the minds of many people with its nuclear arsenal.

    The pure panic and mindless reactionary thinking that can be provoked in the unprepared when the danger of nukes is present is quite powerful. This could not have been made more clear than this past week when an “accidental” warning of a live ICBM launch occurred in Hawaii.

    The Hawaii Emergency Management Agency now claims that this false alarm was started by a single employee, who has not been named.  How? They somehow “pushed the wrong button” … twice!

    I find this explanation absurd. I can only find one example of a false alarm similar to the one in Hawaii, and this took place way back in 1971 with a mix-up of tapes leading to a broadcast warning of imminent attack on the U.S. After this event, the alert system was subject to streamlining and stopgaps designed to prevent it from ever happening again. During the false alarm of 1971, over six attempts were made for cancellation broadcasts, the first one within about ten minutes of the initial false alarm. In Hawaii, no cancellation was attempted for nearly 40 minutes.

    To add to the overall strangeness, there was yet another false missile alarm in Japan within the same week!  Yet again, this alert was immediately attributed to North Korea, but at least this time the alert was corrected 5 minutes later instead of 40.

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    To me, this smells of a psyop; a test to gauge public reactions to a threat, as well as planting preconceived notions of a particular bogeyman. The public did not disappoint.

    Eye witnesses described people “running and crying in the streets,” completely bewildered as to what to do. An associate of mine (who is also experienced in preparedness) was in Hawaii at the time of the event. She related to me that her family decided to shelter in place because there were no indications that fallout shelters were available anyway. Other people tried to lower their children into the sewers in an effort to escape a nuclear blast. Here is a video showing the false missile alert causing hysteria in Hawaii:

    (As a side note, sheltering in a sewer during an actual nuclear event is the height of stupidity. Nuclear blasts send irradiated particulates into the air. These particulates then settle in the streets or are washed out of the air by rainfall. This water becomes a highly concentrated dose of irradiated particulates which are then drained down into the sewers. You might survive the initial blast, you might not, but you are certain to die from radiation if waiting out the attack in a sewer. Shelter in a dry basement instead with as much matter density between you and the outside as possible. Keep in mind that whatever place you choose to shelter is where you will likely have to stay for at least two weeks, or until the nuclear half life of the particulates has run its course.)

    Obviously the average American is completely unprepared for a real attack of a minor magnitude, let alone the magnitude of a nuclear blast. Perhaps this reaction in Hawaii was so prevalent because Hawaii tends to be left leaning to the extreme, and leftists are generally poorly prepared for anything beyond a cancellation by their manicurists. That said, the fact that this “mistake” happened to take place in Hawaii  and Japan which are already under stress due to the ballistic missile tests of North Korea is an interesting coincidence indeed.

    Seeing what the reaction in Hawaii was like, a real attack presents an alluring opportunity for the establishment. The pure terror involved in just the potential of a nuclear attack is palpable, and this fear makes the masses easy to manipulate. Should a real attack take place, either by North Korea or by other agencies through false flag, when is the most advantageous time?

    The history of Korean conflict suggests a surprise attack is a probable strategy. North Korea is a nation trapped in time, and North Korean authorities remember the success of the surprise attacks they used to launch the first Korean war in June 1950. These attacks allowed North Korea communists to overrun South Korean forces within days.

    In terms of a false flag event, these seem to occur in the midst of other “training exercises” or distracting events. I can’t think of anything more distracting for South Korea than the Winter Olympics, set to take place February 9-25 in Pyeongchang.

    I would note the sudden friendly demeanor between North Korea and South Korea just before the Olympics, including the offer by North Korea to participate in a joint women’s hockey team during the games (something that has never happened before). Would it not be a shame if this ember of goodwill was snuffed out by a North Korean missile test or attack of some kind? The “betrayal” would be excellent war fuel, like a new Pearl Harbor.

    As Secretary of State Rex Tillerson stated recently, the threat of war with North Korea is “growing” despite the recent “thaw” in relations due to the Olympic Games.  The thaw is partially predicated on the North Korean demand that all South Korean and US military exercises be cancelled during negotiations.

    The typical response by skeptics will be that any attack by North Korea would be met with massive nuclear response. I would point out that a full-scale nuclear response is unlikely in the region.

    First, a nuclear onslaught on North Korea also puts its neighbors (our allies) at risk of considerable radiation exposure. The argument may be made that only a conventional assault would be safe for the surrounding countries, not to mention the Pacific U.S., which could see radiation exposure as well.

    Second, a nuke attack is not necessarily going to prevent the need for a ground invasion. North Korea has more than 8,000 underground facilities that we know of and has been preparing for bombardment for over 60 years. Its mountainous terrain also presents serious doubts as to the effectiveness of bombardment. This is not just my assessment but the assessment of the Department of Defense. The idea that one big nuke button is going to solve the problem is childish delusion by people who watch too many movies.

    Hopefully, the Olympics will conclude without incident and the skeptics are proven correct on North Korean tensions being nothing more than a sideshow amounting to a lot of bluster. But for now the level of conflict staging over the past year should be taken seriously, and the panic that could develop if a war does erupt should be concerning to us all. In times of crisis, people act stupidly and they beg for help from anyone offering, even if it is someone with malicious intent. Fearful individuals will give up almost anything to escape uncertainty, including their freedom and their common sense. And nothing causes fear quite so much as thoughts of war and mushroom clouds.

  • California's Homeless Problem Revealed In One "Incredible" Video

    Despite the record stock market and unemployment at 4.1% (despite a December jobs miss), the socialist utopia known as California is home to an ever-sprawling tent city which estimated to contain over 1,000 residents.

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    After a ZeroHedge report last March on the sprawling tent cities, a 10-minute video, dubbed by some as “incredible” has emerged showing the shocking growth of the encampment near Angels Stadium in Anaheim, CA along the Santa Ana river. 

    Locals have become increasingly alarmed by the rapid spread of unregulated squatters and their belongings and their waste.

    As a cyclist who uses the trail to ride to the beach often, over this last year it has gotten substantially worse.  It is unsafe and unsanitary with loose dogs everywhere and human fecal matter scattered on the trail.

    The area is disgusting and reeks of trash and feces.

    He reports that the bike trail, once popular with outdoors enthusiasts and families which runs for miles to beaches along the Pacific Ocean, has become unsafe as miscreants plot assaults and robberies on passing riders, even laying tripwires across the path. Dan Lyman

    Domestic Migration

    As we pointed out last March, California’s Democrats aren’t just failing the poor people that have been relegated to tent cities (see “Americans Fleeing Expensive, Over-Taxed Metro Areas In Pursuit Of Affordability“). In fact, people of all income brackets are fleeing the state in droves. Not surprisingly, these domestic migrants are flocking to areas with a lower cost of living, lower/no state income taxes, less regulations and higher job growth (aka “Red” states).

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    Ironically, the dark areas on the map above seem to match perfectly with the dark areas on this map which indicate those with the highest state income tax rates.

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    What an odd coincidence…

  • Is Bitcoin A Reaction To US Dollar Hegemony?

    Authored by Federico Pieraccini via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    Blockchain technology and the birth of the so-called cryptocurrencies finds deep roots in three contributing factors:

    • the advance of technology:
    • the manipulation of global economic and financial rules;
    • and the persistent attempt to weaken the national economies of countries that geopolitically challenge the US power system.

    In this first article I address these issues from a financial point of view, in the next analysis I intend to dive into the geopolitical aspects and broader the perspective on how Russia, China and other nations are taking advantage of a decentralized financial system.

     

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180117_hege.png

    Many national economies seem to have begun the process of protecting themselves from what seems like an inevitable economic trend. De-dollarization — dumping dollars for other goods of value — has become popular not only with countries but also with ordinary individuals as a result of global technological growth and increasing access to the Internet. The financial markets are generally reflecting this same trend.

    The US dollar is the world’s most dominant reserve currency. The planning and financial rules that accompany this situation are decided in the United States for the benefit of Washington and a few of her allies. This has been reflected in the creation of the petrodollar, the abolition of the gold standard, and the most recent financial crisis of 2008, with the senseless process of quantitative easing. All these economic decisions have been made with the precise aim of prolonging American domination of the global economy, artificially propping up an unsustainable financial system.

    The practical consequences of this unsustainability have led over time to thoughts of a practical alternative, both to escape from the domination of the dollar and to re-anchor the economy to real value. The need to circumvent this situation has become especially urgent for countries with a large amount of dollar-denominated debt, or where they face the prospect of being excluded from the SWIFT international payment system.

    It is therefore not accidental that countries like Iran and Venezuela, but also Russia and North Korea, have resorted to alternative methods to operate in the global economic space. Washington’s political decision in 2012 to remove Iranian banks from SWIFT immediately set off alarm bells for several countries. The need to escape from the possibility of being excluded from SWIFT became urgent for countries under the threat of Washington. An alternative payment system was thus born in 2015, christened the Cross-Border Interbank Payments System (CIPS), unsurprising founded by China. Basically a copy of the SWIFT system, it serves the role of being a backup system should the Americans seek to exclude from SWIFT recalcitrant countries. A more radical solution has been sought by Venezuela, with the country creating its own virtual currency. President Maduro has announced the creation of a crypto state currency based on the value of oil and supported by barrels of oil worth over five billion dollars. Venezuela has been forced to take this step because of a scarcity of US dollars in the country brought on by the economic warfare visited on the it by Washington, which has succeeded in driving the country into a deep crisis.

    This search for fresh liquidity is a gamble for Maduro, who even hopes to be able to trade with allied countries in the new currency, thus circumventing international bans. Even North Korea is said to operate in bitcoin, thereby circumventing the international system of prohibitions and blockades.

    The sanctions on Russia, and the influence that Washington exerts with the dollar on the global economic system, has led Moscow and Beijing to a de-dollarization agreement, establishing the yuan gold standard. Russia sells hydrocarbons to China, which pays for them in yuan, then Russia immediately converts the yuan into gold at the Shanghai Gold Exchange, in the process bypassing Washington’s sanctions.

    This situation is being replicated in country after country. The United States increases financial and economic pressure on countries through such international bodies as the IMF and the World Bank, then these countries organize amongst themselves to push back against the interference. Technology has facilitated this strategy of decentralization against the center that is London and Washington, the financial heart and primary cause of manifold global problems. Firstly, the possibility of the unlimited printing of dollars has distorted global economies, inflating stock markets and causing national debts to grow out of control. Even the gold markets are manipulated by virtue of the abundance of easy money and such ponzi-scheme tools as derivatives and other forms of financial leverage. All too predictably, as seen in 2008, if it all comes crashing down, the central banks are going to bail out their partners through the mechanism of quantitative easing, guaranteeing unlimited cashflow and leaving taxpayers, along with the small players in the financial markets, to carry the burden.

    It is probably too early for the common man to understand what is happening, but in fact the dollar is depreciating in relation to some more tangible assets. But gold continues to be corralled by parallel financial mechanisms and other financial instruments created for the sole purpose of manipulating the financial markets on which the common man depends in search of modest gains. As with others, the gold market suffers from the combine power of the US dollar, centralized financial institutions and market manipulation. Entities such as the FED (and their owners), criminally colluding and working with private banks, hedge funds, rating agencies and audit companies, have made immense wealth by driving the world into a debt scam that has stripped normal citizens of their future.

    What is happening in the cryptocurrency markets in not only occurring in parallel with the spread of the Internet, smartphones and the increasing ability to operate in the digital world, but is also seen as a safe haven from centralized financial regulators and central banks; in other words, from the dollar and fiat currencies in general. Whether bitcoin will prove to be a wise long-term investment is yet to be seen, but the concept of cryptocurrencies is here to stay. The technology behind the idea, the blockchain, is a definitive model for decentralized economic transactions without any intermediary that can manipulate and distort the market at will. It is the antidote to the debt virus that is killing our society and spreading chaos around the world.

    Washington is now left to deal with the consequences of its demented actions against its geopolitical adversaries. The decision to remove Iran from the SWIFT system, and the ongoing economic war against Russia and Venezuela, have pushed the People’s Republic of China to obviate any direct attacks on its financial system by creating an alternative economic system. The goal is to warn the United States and her allies that an economic alternative exists and is already operational, ready to be opposed to the Euro-American system if necessary. Washington does not seem to want to renounce the role of manipulator and ruler of world speculative finance, and the obvious result of this is the creation of a financial system that is slowly working against the current one. Lack of anonymity and the centrality of systems seem to be the two fundamental elements of the current financial system that orbits around London and Washington. An anonymous, decentralized and technologically reliable system could be exactly what Washington’s geopolitical adversaries have been looking for to end the US-Dollar hegemony.

  • "The Sex Was Textbook Generic" – Stormy Daniels Dishes On Trump Hookup

    Stormy Daniels – the former porn star who claims to have had an affair with President Trump back in 2006, shortly after his marriage to First Lady Melania Trump – is refusing to go away. On Wednesday, In Touch, the glossy supermarket tabloid, published excerpts from an interview that Daniels – real name Stephanie Clifford – gave to the magazine back in 2011.

    In the excerpts, Daniels discusses her, uh, liaison with Trump in intimate detail. The affair took place in a Lake Tahoe Nevada hotel suite. In Touch corroborated the story with Daniels’s good friend, Randy Spears. Her ex-husband, Mike Moz, also confirmed the story.
    Daniels also reportedly took and passed a polygraph test administered by In Touch at the time of the interview.

     

    Daniels

    The most salacious details included in the story was Daniels’s description Trump’s bedroom demeanor.

    Stormy told In Touch, “[The sex] was textbook generic,” while discussing the fling they had less than four months after Donald’s wife, Melania, gave birth to their son, Barron. “I actually don’t even know why I did it, but I do remember while we were having sex, I was like, ‘Please, don’t try to pay me.’”

    Trump met Daniels at the American Century celebrity golf tournament in July 2006. Trump asked her to dinner, to which she readily agreed…

    When she met with Trump, she was greeted by a bodyguard named Keith – presumably former Oval Office Director of Operations and Trump Organization Security Chief Keith Schilller…

    It all started at the American Century celebrity golf tournament in July 2006. “[Trump] was introduced to everybody. He kept looking at me and then we ended up riding to another hole on the same golf cart together,” Stormy recalled, adding that the business mogul later came to the gift lounge her adult-film company, Wicked Pictures, sponsored and asked for her number, which she gave him, before they posed for a photo together.

    “Then he asked me if I wanted to have dinner that night. And I was like, ‘Yeah, of course!’” she told In Touch. Stormy, dressed up to go out on the town, arrived at Trump’s hotel room, where she says she was greeted by a bodyguard named Keith, who let her inside. Stormy claims Trump was sprawled on the couch watching TV, wearing pajama pants. “We ended up having dinner in the room,” she revealed to In Touch.

    After the deed, Daniels said the two hung out for a bit. Then Trump promised to call her – though it’s unclear whether he ever did.

    At one point, Stormy told In Touch, she excused herself to go to the bathroom.

    “When I came out, he was sitting on the bed and he was like, ‘Come here.’ And I was like, ‘Ugh, here we go.’ And we started kissing.” After having sex, Stormy said, “We hung out for a little while and he just kept saying, ‘I’m gonna call you, I’m gonna call you. I have to see you again. You’re amazing. We have to get you on The Apprentice.’”

    Trump has vigorously denied having an affair with Daniels, and the White House has contested a Wall Street Journal story claiming Trump lawyer Michael Cohen paid Daniels $130,000 to stop  her from sharing her story with Slate and Good Morning America in October 2016, shortly after the Access Hollywood tape leaked.

    Of course, this is just an excerpt. Daniels was pretty active in sharing her story about five years ago, it seems, back when Trump was the star host of NBC’s “Celebrity Apprentice.” In Touch  will publish a 5,000 word interview with Daniels later in the week…

  • Cryptocurrencies – Questioning The Value Proposition

    Authored by Stephen Englander via Rafiki Capital Management,

    Bitcoin is deciding whether this is the moment to crash and burn.

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    My conjecture is that cryptocurrency holders are trying to decide whether to abandon Bitcoin because its limitations mean it will be superseded by better products or bet that it can thrive despite them.

    The dilemma is that once you stop pricing Bitcoin and its derivatives as new assets that will head to the moon, the pricing model is more conventional and much less breathtaking.

    We discuss these issues below.

    Below we go through some of the questions on why Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies have certain characteristics, and whether these characteristics are needed or even desirable.

    1. Is Bitcoin Netscape?
    2. How limited is the supply of cryptocurrencies?
    3. If Bitcoin crashes what happens to other alt-currencies?
    4. What asset market lacunae do cryptocurrencies fill?
    5. Why mine?
    6. Why distribute the ledger?
    7. Do cryptocurrency transactions need coins or tokens?
    8. Can you make cryptocurrencies KYC and AML compliant?​

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180117_bubble.png

    1) Is Bitcoin Netscape?

    Bitcoin emerged in the shadow of the financial crisis, when the reputations of the financial and economic policy community was at a post-1930s low. It is designed for a world in which there is no confidence in major fiat currencies. Bitcoin gives you pseudonymity
      New York, 16th January 2018 (albeit imperfect), the distributed ledger means that transaction records are unlikely to disappear, the mining can take place anywhere and there are built-in incentives for miners to keep mining.

    The question is whether there is a problem that the original Bitcoin solves in developed economies. Some Bitcoin characteristics superficially suit a ‘Mad Max/Hunger Games’ world, but add little now. My suspicion is that even in the Mad Max world, the value of Bitcoin will be de minimis since hard assets will be the currency, not an abstract string of code. 

    Bitcoin may nonetheless be optimized for parts of the world that have harsh capital controls or dysfunctional governments, and for illicit transactions (although even here better versions exist). The characteristics listed above are helpful in preserving capital where security of capital and asset ownership does not exist.

    Pseudonymity, a distributed ledger and mining do not seem essential in developed economics and may even be drawbacks for many useful applications of the technology. It seems straightforward to design a cryptocurrency that is optimized for enabling cheaper transactions and recording of asset transfers and other transactions within the developed economy financial system. Some of these already exist and may be gaining on Bitcoin. Over time they may well supersede Bitcoin.

    There are paths by which Bitcoin could remain dominant, helped by its first mover advantage. However, there are likely many more paths by which it becomes a footnote either by cryptocurrencies that have functionality in transactions but not as a store of value, or because competitor alt-currencies are just better.

    2) How limited is the supply of cryptocurrencies?

    One of the weakest element of the Bitcoin/cryptocurrency origin mythology is the limited supply. That argument is still used to justify pricing Bitcoin off gold and other stores of value. As if Bitcoin cannot be replicated cheaply and indefinitely. Forks are increasingly popular because it feels like you are getting additional cryptocurrency for free. But some may notice that is an arbitrary supply increase. 

    There are no barriers to entry on the crypto space, other than a good story about the niche that your coin is filling. The number of ICOs tells you that it is easy and cheap. There are big incentives to get in on the ground floor of a cryptocurrency that has even moderate acceptance.

    3) If Bitcoin crashes what happens to other alt-currencies?

    The possibility that Bitcoin is superceded by better alt-currencies has important implications for the class. In fact, it likely determines the future pricing structure of these currencies.

    Bitcoin’s price does not have a floor because it does not have a fundamental pricing model like equities and bonds. If its price starts falling because other products are available and better, there is little to stop it. As a thought experiment, say Bitcoin was trading today at $14k and stayed there for three months. Six months from now it dropped to $14 and stayed there for three months. What would you look at to figure out which was the right price?  The run-up in Bitcoin created a mystique of one-way trading which is being shaken but the pricing requires faith that there will always be demand. This is far from guaranteed given the existence of alternatives with better characteristics.

    If Bitcoin crashes, investors in other alt-currencies will likely become more demanding in terms of the value proposition and link value to functionality, rather than faith. I can value a cryptocurrency that collects a fee for performing or recording transactions, but that value is likely to be different than as an alternative to gold or fiat money. This means pricing alt-currencies off credit card companies, depositories and other companies that provide similar transactions and recording services. That valuation is likely to be much more prosaic than the valuation now attached to cryptocurrencies as assets.

    4) What asset market lacunae do cryptocurrencies fill?

    If you are not afraid of a financial breakdown, confiscation of your assets or the feds, can you pin down the asset characteristics of a cryptocurrency that give them value? Do they allow you to hedge risk, choose a preferred point on the asset market risk-return curve, give you a share in some productive asset, or shift consumption from now into the future in a reliable way?  

    There are assets that are not much good in transactions (gold, the S&P ETF that you own) and transactions vehicles that are not great as assets (your VISA card, cash, the ATM at the corner dive that spares you the trouble of going to the bank). For now focus on the asset side and ask how capital in developed economies is better allocated because cryptocurrencies exist. (We discuss transactions functionality below.)

    Enabling young people to invest in human capital without the rationing, naivete and moral hazards of current student loan programs would concretely improve savings-investment efficiency. I am trying to think of an analogous asset market problem that crypto assets help resolve.

    The blockchain and other innovations associated with Bitcoin potentially could make transactions quicker, cheaper and less risky. However, this relates to their transactional functionality but is not here or there with respect to their desirability as an asset.

    If you believe that capital controls are immoral, you can argue that coin and other cryptocurrencies allow you to protect your assets by skirting such controls. That is not a big issue in G10 economies, but there could be a genuine debate elsewhere. If you believe that taxes are not moral or that arms/drug dealing is, you can make a similar case for cryptocurrencies link. Most of us need a lot of convincing before we swallow that.

    So I still struggle to determine a DM asset market problem that it solves. South Korea and a couple of other countries are rumored to be taking actions to limit or stop speculation in cryptocurrencies on the view that it is a waste of time and resources and does not contribute to the public good. 

    A similar motivation was behind Montreal banning pinball in public for decades after 1955. I was a personal victim of the ban in my youth. There is an element of paternalism in limiting a very narrow and specific set of transactions, while allowing you to blow your fortune on horse races or at the casino. However, most of us have a hard time discussing our ‘investments’ at the race track or casino.

    5) Why mine?

    Mining in Bitcoin and its clones provides incentives to maintain the distributed ledger.  It is also extends the analogy between Bitcoin and gold, which is a very effective marketing device. It is clear there is a colossal waste of energy link.  

    Digiconomist estimates that USD2bn worth of energy is being consumed to mine USD14bn of BTC. That means that the electricity cost is 14% of maintaining the blockchain and almost 1% of the Bitcoin market cap and likely to rise. It looks increasingly that cryptocurrency mining will be heavily concentrated in the locations where electricity is grotesquely mispriced. 

    Originally the mining was probably intended to deal with the collapse of fiat currencies. You would have a bunch of miners and maintaining a bunch of blockchains and manipulation would be close to impossible. Mining has now become so concentrated that there is a possibility that the transaction record could become corrupted by collusion among big miners, or that transactions costs could be artificially elevated. 

    Talking about large numbers of independent, decentralized cryptocurrency miners is like talking about the family farm in US agriculture. It’s a nice image but nowhere close to reality. Stories of individuals buying power plants to mine cryptocurrencies further weaken the narrative of a decentralized system that is coalition-proof link.

    The only reason to have mining now is because it has become a defining characteristic of cryptocurrencies, even though it has no real purpose, except to jump start interest in new currencies by offering high returns to the initial miners. Given the huge built-in inefficiency of mining process, the question is can you get the benefits of a cryptcurrency without the mining process. Some altcoins do not have mining and this is likely the direction future coins will take.

    6) Why distribute the ledger? 

    The distributed ledger solves the problem of how to maintain the integrity of a decentralized system. It doesn’t establish a need for such a decentralized system or justify the costs that are associated with it.

    What is the marginal benefit of the 51st ledger out there? You must fall back on the Mad Max world to really need so many replicative ledgers. Then you must believe that computer systems will be running. 

    One of the selling points on public blockchains is that their dispersion would make them impervious to hacking and corruption. With mining operations so specialized and concentrated, that argument has gone be the boards. I have seen discussions in which it is argued that the gaming the blockchain would be self-defeating and will not happen, but that is not the same as demonstrating that it cannot happen. 

    For many purposes private blockchains are likely to be more efficient. The need for replication is limited. Whether the security of the distributed blockchain exceeds that of private blockchains is unclear, as are the relative costs. Especially when there are a lot of transactions concentrated among a small number of participants, we are likely to see private rather than public blockchains dominate. My expectation is that we will come to see blockchains as clubs, rather than villages.

    7) Do cryptocurrency transactions need coins or tokens?

    My credit card enables me to transact across states and countries. But it doesn’t require that I buy a credit card asset or token. Say cryptocurrencies make cross-border transactions or asset transfers less expensive, or we use a blockchain to record transactions and contracts. It is obvious that fees will be charged for this service, just as the credit card company charges. But do we need a tradable asset with a fluctuating price as the medium for such transactions or records You can simply pay a fee to have the sale of your house or your employment contract put in the registry? Having a coin or token associated with these transactions doesn’t improve functionality.  

    Once you accept the view that cryptocurrencies will make it easier to execute and record transactions, but are not themselves assets or a store of value, coins or tokens have as little inherent value as the token used by children to establish their right for a ride on the merry-goround. The firms that perform the transactions will have a value, just as credit card companies do, but that doesn’t mean that the coin linked to the service will have anything but a momentary value.

    8) Can you make cryptocurrencies KYC and AML compliant?

    Cryptocurrency exchanges within developed economies all have some form of AML and KYC compliance. There are some AML compliant cryptocurrencies but my sense is that the ones that promise complete anonymity are far more popular. It appears that Bitcoin and most clones are not quite as anonymous as once advertised, but it also takes some effort to de-anonymize. So, if you are trying to hide from your partner how much you paid for the Rangers playoff tickets, you are pretty safe. However, if the authorities were interested in your particular transaction, they are likely to be able to figure it out as well. 

    Outside of DM economies it is likely that KYC and AML are not observed meticulously. Public blockchains record these transactions so they are not invisible, but they are harder to track than those made within organized DM exchanges with strict KYC and AML vetting. The question is whether the coexistence of a legitimate DM core and potentially shady non-DM spokes (or maybe a shady core and legitimate spokes) is feasible in the long term. My conjecture is that the coexistence will break down and that there will be a growing distinction between cryptocurrencies that operate fully within the global financial system and those that facilitate outside the system transactions.

    Concluding comments

    Cryptocurrency technology is likely to serve as the basis for executing asset transfers and storing the record of transactions and contracts. Mining, anonymity, and the distributed ledger are not relevant for most of these purposes. The case is not really made that cryptocurrencies are assets and that means that the current pricing proposition is shaky. It is possible that a private issued ‘fiat’ cryptocurrency will trade alongside other assets, but it is still not clear what would give it value.

    The underlying proposition is like the Marxist interpretation of history. The intellectual breadth and audacity are breathtaking. The ability to think through ex ante how a new, decentralized currency asset could be constructed and maintained is remarkable.  But that doesn’t mean that the underlying premises are correct, or that it solves a problem anyone really worries about.

  • Here's What Caused Today's Bond Selloff, And Why It Makes No Sense

    Today just after 1pm, Apple unveiled  that as part of its capital investment plan over the next 5 years (which aims to spend $30 billion and create 20,000 jobs in the US), the company expects to make a $38 billion tax payment to repatriate some/all of its offshore cash.

    The news coincided with an abrupt reversal in 10Y Treasurys, which sold off…

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    … accelerating the ramp in stocks, slamming gold and at the same time put in a bid for dollars, halting the greenback’s latest pounding, which earlier in the day had tumbled to three year lows.

     

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    And while many – including us – speculated that news of the Apple repatriation was the catalyst for this sharp intraday reversal, Morgan Stanley’s rate strategist Matthew Hornbach confirmed that was indeed the case, in his Wednesday EOD market commentary, to wit: “News about Apple’s repatriation plan fueled a sell-off in USTs led by the 7y point.”

    Even so, the market’s reaction to the Apple news left quite a few rates strategists, Hornbach including, puzzled. puzzled: “We don’t find the sell-off warranted by the headline since Apple’s marketable security holdings have a short maturity and are concentrated in corporate bonds.

    He explains further:

    By 8:00 AM New York, 10y yields were unchanged from the London open at 2.56%. Strong industrial production data at 9:15 AM failed to push yields higher and 10y yields hit the session low of 2.54% shortly before 11:00 AM. From there, rates were in the 2.55% to 2.56% range until a Bloomberg headline hit the tapes at 1:02 PM about Apple expecting a tax payment of $38bn for planned repatriated earnings.

    It was not clear over what period Apple planned to repatriate earnings, but the headline fueled speculation that the firm might have to sell some Treasury and corporate bond holdings to pay the tax liability, leading to a sell-off in UST yields for the rest of the afternoon. It is not clear to us that the headline warrants a sell-off since

    1. According to Apple’s 10-K filings  the “maturities of the Company’s long-term marketable securities generally range from one to five years.” That is, the best guess about the average maturity of their UST holdings would be 2.5 years. Yet, the sell-off was led by the 7y point and the 2s7s curve steepened by 2.5bp from the time the data was released until the close.
    2. Apple holds $55bn of Treasury securities compared to $152bn in corporate securities. So, it is not clear why UST yields sold off, while corporate spreads barely widened on the news. That is particularly puzzling since USTs constitute 15% of Apple’s assets, a value that is roughly in line with the share of USTs in their assets since 2010. Corporate bond holdings however have increased from 23% in 2010 to 41% in 2017, so it could be argued that Apple would be more inclined to sell corporate bonds to free up any needed cash.

    Another aspect of the market reaction to the headline that is puzzling is the strengthening of the US dollar. “Offshore cash” or unremitted earnings do not have to be physically offshore and can be invested in US dollar securities such as US Treasuries and unrelated corporate equities and bonds according to the tax code. As a result, unless Apple and other firms with unremitted earnings were intentionally running an unhedged short USD position that they now intend to close out, there should be no impact on the US dollar.

    In other words, the market was responding as if the algos reacting to the AAPL news were programmed by 22-year-old math Ph.D. who had no idea what they were doing. In other words, perfectly inefficiently.

    So will Morgan Stanley’s explanation be sufficient to send yields lower, the dollar sliding, bond spreads surging and reverse much of today’s market spike, all of which took place in erroneous response to the AAPL repatriation announcement? Of course not.

     

  • US Deploys Tactical Communications-Scrambling Plane To Korean Peninsula

    South Korea’s deal to allow North Korean athletes and dignitaries to attend the Winter Olympics in PyeongChang appeared to ease tensions on the peninsula earlier this month. Still, it appears the US air force has been expanding its presence in South Korea.

    Local media reported Monday that an EC-130H Compass Call aircraft, an advanced plane capable of denial of service attacks on enemy plane’s communication systems, was deployed to South Korea’s Osan Air Force Base by the US Air Force earlier this month.

    According to Sputnik, it’s unclear why the state-of-the-art tactical aircraft was deployed to the base. Some critics have speculated that it may be used to collect data on North Korea’s military during the Games, which are set to begin Feb. 9.

    US

    The plane, based at Arizona’s Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, the aircraft reportedly made its way to South Korea after stopping at Japan’s Yokota Air Base.

    The US Airforce only has 14 of these advanced aircraft in its entire arsenal, according to Sputnik.

    The planes have recently been used to keep Daesh fighters from coordinating attacks.

    “If we can shut down or deny their communication,” Lt. Col. Chris Weaton of the Electronic Combat Squadron said in a statement, “then we are causing chaos.”

    An estimated four of the 13 EC-130Hs are operating in Iraq and Syria.

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